Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VI: The Shortfall Distribution of Capacity-Limited SystemsTextbook
Motivation
Service parts supply chains are often limited by a capacitated resource, such as a production line or a repair shop, instead of by lead times alone. Once capacity binds, the classical tools for setting stock levels (Palm's theorem and the Poisson distribution of units in resupply) no longer apply, and the quantity that determines how much stock is needed is the shortfall: the amount by which the end-of-period inventory falls below its target because capacity was insufficient. Chapter 8 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) builds its tactical planning models for capacity-limited systems on the distribution of this random variable, and on a continuous-time repair queue in which item counts are geometric.
The shortfall recursion is the Lindley recursion of queueing theory (Lindley 1952), so its stationary law is the law of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift. The exponential tail of that maximum goes back to Cramér's work on ruin probabilities; for capacitated production–inventory systems it was stated by Glasserman (1997), whose theorem the book quotes as Theorem 11. Glasserman and Tayur (1995) used the shortfall to optimize base-stock levels in multi-echelon capacitated systems, and Roundy and Muckstadt (2000) studied the mass-exponential approximation that the theorem motivates.
Setting
A single item is produced in periods of an infinite horizon; at most units can be produced per period. The demand of period is ; the demands are nonnegative, independent and identically distributed, with generic demand and (the standing assumption of Section 8.1.1).
Under the modified policy with target level , the facility observes and produces units, where is the end-of-period net inventory and . The shortfall satisfies and
With the random walk (), the stationary shortfall is
A law on is lattice if it is concentrated on a progression with .
In the discrete case ( and integer valued) is a Markov chain on with transition probabilities (p. 185). In the repair model of Section 8.3.1, reparable units of item arrive at rate , , a single exponential server repairs at rate , is the number of units in repair and the number of item- units, and .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 11, corrected (p. 191)
Assume for all , with ; ; the law of is non-lattice; and has a root in . Then there are and with
The constant is left unspecified, as in the book.
Milestones, in attack order
- Eq. (8.1): under the modified policy, for every , independently of .
- Section 8.1.1: almost surely, for every , and the law of is stationary for (8.1).
- Eq. (8.2): for , .
- Theorem 11, second sentence: has at most one positive root.
- Section 8.1.2: with integer demand, is a Markov chain with transition probabilities .
- Section 8.1.2: exists and solves , , .
- Section 8.3.1: if is geometric with parameter and given is binomial, then .
- Section 8.3.1: , and the smallest cost-minimising stock level is the smallest with .
Significance
The exponential tail is the justification the book gives for approximating the shortfall by a mass-exponential law (an atom at zero plus an exponential tail), from which target stock levels and fill rates are computed in closed form. The decay rate depends only on the demand law and the capacity, so the theorem also says how the stock needed for a given service level grows as utilization approaches one. The discrete-chain milestones justify the exact computation of the shortfall distribution behind the book's Table 8.1 and Figures 8.3–8.8. The geometric law of reduces the multi-item repair problem to independent newsvendor problems with an explicit solution.
The asymptotics of the random-walk maximum are proved in the literature (Cramér–Lundberg theory, Feller Vol. II, XII.5; Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, XIII.5); no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Mathlib has neither the Lindley recursion, nor ladder-height decompositions, nor the key renewal theorem for non-lattice laws. The printed Theorem 11 is not correct as stated (see Formalization scope), so the mission also records a corrected statement.
Difficulty
The central step of the goal is the passage from the random walk to an exact asymptotic. An exponential change of measure (Esscher tilt) with the root turns into an expectation under a law with positive drift, but it only yields the upper bound (Lundberg's inequality); it does not show that converges, nor that the limit is positive. Convergence needs a renewal theorem for the overshoot of the tilted walk, which fails for lattice laws. That is why the non-lattice hypothesis cannot be dropped. For the milestones, the existence of the stationary law needs the reversal argument that identifies the law of with that of , plus the strong law of large numbers to show from .
Formalization scope
- Model. Demands are real, nonnegative, measurable, i.i.d. (
iIndepFunplusIdentDistribwith ), integrable, with ; these are fields ofShortfallModel. Periods are numbered from as in the book (demand 0is an unused i.i.d. copy). The discrete case is a separate structure with -valued demand and capacity. - Stationary shortfall. The book's "stationary distribution ... Let represent this random variable" is pinned to , taken in and converted to a real number; milestone 2 proves that it is the limit law of from and a stationary law of (8.1). The discrete is pinned to .
- Corrections to Theorem 11. The printed theorem is false. For integer demand is a step function, and no is asymptotic to it. If is finite only for , the equation may have no root in . The goal therefore adds two labelled hypotheses: a non-lattice demand law, and a root in . The mass-exponential demand of Section 8.1.3 (an atom at plus a density) is non-lattice. The approximation is not stated.
- Repair model. The M/M/1 queue is not built. The geometric law of (asserted on p. 202) and the binomial split of (quoted from Chapter 3) enter milestone 7 as hypotheses, exactly as the page's proof uses them. The stability condition , not written on the page, is a hypothesis. "The optimal " is read as the smallest minimiser of the cost.
- Ruled out. Stating Theorem 11 with or allowed to depend on , with (the ratio would be a division by zero, which Lean evaluates to ), or for a postulated to have an exponential tail proves nothing. Here are quantified before , both are asserted positive, and is constructed from the demands.
- Not formalized. The mass-exponential approximations (8.3)–(8.4), the Roundy–Muckstadt refinement, the fill-rate formula (a definition, whose steady-state identity needs uniform integrability the book does not discuss), the random-capacity chain on p. 186, and the monotonicity of in .
- Reusable infrastructure. Welcome: the Lindley recursion and its reversal identity, the Loynes existence theorem, Lundberg's inequality, and a non-lattice renewal theorem. All of these are needed well beyond this mission, in queueing (GI/G/1 waiting times) and ruin theory.
Selected references
- J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
- P. Glasserman, Bounds and asymptotics for planning critical safety stocks, Operations Research 45(2), 244–257, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.2.244
- P. Glasserman and S. Tayur, Sensitivity analysis for base-stock levels in multiechelon production-inventory systems, Management Science 41(2), 263–281, 1995 (the book's reference [97]). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.2.263
- R. O. Roundy and J. A. Muckstadt, Heuristic computation of periodic-review base stock inventory policies, Management Science 46(1), 104–109, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.1.104.15131
- D. V. Lindley, The theory of queues with a single server, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 48(2), 277–289, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100027638
- W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971, Chapter XII.
- S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, Chapter XIII. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236