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The OR Formalization Drive

Help us formalize the operations research literature in Lean.

464 open missions

Missions

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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VI: The Shortfall Distribution of Capacity-Limited SystemsTextbook

Motivation

Service parts supply chains are often limited by a capacitated resource, such as a production line or a repair shop, instead of by lead times alone. Once capacity binds, the classical tools for setting stock levels (Palm's theorem and the Poisson distribution of units in resupply) no longer apply, and the quantity that determines how much stock is needed is the shortfall: the amount by which the end-of-period inventory falls below its target because capacity was insufficient. Chapter 8 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) builds its tactical planning models for capacity-limited systems on the distribution of this random variable, and on a continuous-time repair queue in which item counts are geometric.

The shortfall recursion is the Lindley recursion of queueing theory (Lindley 1952), so its stationary law is the law of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift. The exponential tail of that maximum goes back to Cramér's work on ruin probabilities; for capacitated production–inventory systems it was stated by Glasserman (1997), whose theorem the book quotes as Theorem 11. Glasserman and Tayur (1995) used the shortfall to optimize base-stock levels in multi-echelon capacitated systems, and Roundy and Muckstadt (2000) studied the mass-exponential approximation that the theorem motivates.

Setting

A single item is produced in periods n=1,2,…n = 1, 2, \dotsn=1,2,… of an infinite horizon; at most ccc units can be produced per period. The demand of period nnn is DnD_nDn​; the demands are nonnegative, independent and identically distributed, with generic demand DDD and E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c (the standing assumption of Section 8.1.1).

Under the modified (s−1,s)(s-1, s)(s−1,s) policy with target level sss, the facility observes DnD_nDn​ and produces min⁡{c,s−In−1+Dn}\min\{c, s - I_{n-1} + D_n\}min{c,s−In−1​+Dn​} units, where InI_nIn​ is the end-of-period net inventory and I0=sI_0 = sI0​=s. The shortfall Vn=s−InV_n = s - I_nVn​=s−In​ satisfies V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and

Vn=[Vn−1+Dn−c]+.(8.1)V_n = \left[V_{n-1} + D_n - c\right]^+ . \tag{8.1}Vn​=[Vn−1​+Dn​−c]+.(8.1)

With the random walk Sn=∑k=1n(Dk−c)S_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} (D_k - c)Sn​=∑k=1n​(Dk​−c) (S0=0S_0 = 0S0​=0), the stationary shortfall is

V=sup⁡n≥0Sn.V = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_n .V=n≥0sup​Sn​.

A law on R\mathbb RR is lattice if it is concentrated on a progression a+dZa + d\mathbb Za+dZ with d>0d > 0d>0.

In the discrete case (ccc and DDD integer valued) (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​ (p. 185). In the repair model of Section 8.3.1, reparable units of item iii arrive at rate λi\lambda_iλi​, λ=∑iλi\lambda = \sum_i \lambda_iλ=∑i​λi​, a single exponential server repairs at rate μ>λ\mu > \lambdaμ>λ, NNN is the number of units in repair and NiN_iNi​ the number of item-iii units, and ηi=λi/(μ−λ+λi)\eta_i = \lambda_i/(\mu - \lambda + \lambda_i)ηi​=λi​/(μ−λ+λi​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11, corrected (p. 191)

Assume E[eαD]<∞E[e^{\alpha D}] < \inftyE[eαD]<∞ for all α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, with δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; P[D>c]>0P[D > c] > 0P[D>c]>0; the law of DDD is non-lattice; and E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). Then there are β>0\beta > 0β>0 and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 with

P{V>v}βe−αv→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.\frac{P\{V > v\}}{\beta e^{-\alpha v}} \to 1 \quad (v \to \infty), \qquad \alpha \text{ the unique positive root of } E\left[e^{-\alpha(c - D)}\right] = 1 .βe−αvP{V>v}​→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.

The constant β\betaβ is left unspecified, as in the book.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Eq. (8.1): under the modified policy, s−In=Vns - I_n = V_ns−In​=Vn​ for every nnn, independently of sss.
  2. Section 8.1.1: V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ almost surely, P{Vn>v}→P{V>v}P\{V_n > v\} \to P\{V > v\}P{Vn​>v}→P{V>v} for every vvv, and the law of VVV is stationary for (8.1).
  3. Eq. (8.2): for v>0v > 0v>0, P{Vn>v}=P{Dn>v+c}+ED[1(d≤v+c) P{Vn−1>v+c−d}]P\{V_n > v\} = P\{D_n > v + c\} + E_D[1(d \le v + c)\, P\{V_{n-1} > v + c - d\}]P{Vn​>v}=P{Dn​>v+c}+ED​[1(d≤v+c)P{Vn−1​>v+c−d}].
  4. Theorem 11, second sentence: E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has at most one positive root.
  5. Section 8.1.2: with integer demand, (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​.
  6. Section 8.1.2: πi=lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\pi_i = \lim_n P\{V_n = i\}πi​=limn​P{Vn​=i} exists and solves πP=π\pi\mathcal P = \piπP=π, ∑iπi=1\sum_i \pi_i = 1∑i​πi​=1, πi≥0\pi_i \ge 0πi​≥0.
  7. Section 8.3.1: if NNN is geometric with parameter λ/μ\lambda/\muλ/μ and NiN_iNi​ given N=jN = jN=j is binomial(j,λi/λ)(j, \lambda_i/\lambda)(j,λi​/λ), then P[Ni=j]=(1−ηi)ηijP[N_i = j] = (1 - \eta_i)\eta_i^jP[Ni​=j]=(1−ηi​)ηij​.
  8. Section 8.3.1: ∑j>spi(j)=ηis+1\sum_{j > s} p_i(j) = \eta_i^{s+1}∑j>s​pi​(j)=ηis+1​, and the smallest cost-minimising stock level is the smallest sss with ηis+1≤hi/(hi+b)\eta_i^{s+1} \le h_i/(h_i + b)ηis+1​≤hi​/(hi​+b).

Significance

The exponential tail is the justification the book gives for approximating the shortfall by a mass-exponential law (an atom at zero plus an exponential tail), from which target stock levels and fill rates are computed in closed form. The decay rate α\alphaα depends only on the demand law and the capacity, so the theorem also says how the stock needed for a given service level grows as utilization approaches one. The discrete-chain milestones justify the exact computation of the shortfall distribution behind the book's Table 8.1 and Figures 8.3–8.8. The geometric law of NiN_iNi​ reduces the multi-item repair problem to independent newsvendor problems with an explicit solution.

The asymptotics of the random-walk maximum are proved in the literature (Cramér–Lundberg theory, Feller Vol. II, XII.5; Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, XIII.5); no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Mathlib has neither the Lindley recursion, nor ladder-height decompositions, nor the key renewal theorem for non-lattice laws. The printed Theorem 11 is not correct as stated (see Formalization scope), so the mission also records a corrected statement.

Difficulty

The central step of the goal is the passage from the random walk to an exact asymptotic. An exponential change of measure (Esscher tilt) with the root α\alphaα turns P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} into an expectation under a law with positive drift, but it only yields the upper bound P{V>v}≤e−αvP\{V > v\} \le e^{-\alpha v}P{V>v}≤e−αv (Lundberg's inequality); it does not show that eαvP{V>v}e^{\alpha v}P\{V > v\}eαvP{V>v} converges, nor that the limit is positive. Convergence needs a renewal theorem for the overshoot of the tilted walk, which fails for lattice laws. That is why the non-lattice hypothesis cannot be dropped. For the milestones, the existence of the stationary law needs the reversal argument that identifies the law of VnV_nVn​ with that of max⁡k≤nSk\max_{k \le n} S_kmaxk≤n​Sk​, plus the strong law of large numbers to show V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ from E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demands are real, nonnegative, measurable, i.i.d. (iIndepFun plus IdentDistrib with D1D_1D1​), integrable, with E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c; these are fields of ShortfallModel. Periods are numbered from 111 as in the book (demand 0 is an unused i.i.d. copy). The discrete case is a separate structure with N\mathbb NN-valued demand and capacity.
  • Stationary shortfall. The book's "stationary distribution ... Let VVV represent this random variable" is pinned to V=sup⁡n≥0SnV = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_nV=supn≥0​Sn​, taken in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and converted to a real number; milestone 2 proves that it is the limit law of VnV_nVn​ from V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and a stationary law of (8.1). The discrete πi\pi_iπi​ is pinned to lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\lim_n P\{V_n = i\}limn​P{Vn​=i}.
  • Corrections to Theorem 11. The printed theorem is false. For integer demand P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} is a step function, and no βe−αv\beta e^{-\alpha v}βe−αv is asymptotic to it. If E[eαD]E[e^{\alpha D}]E[eαD] is finite only for α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, the equation E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 may have no root in (0,δ)(0,\delta)(0,δ). The goal therefore adds two labelled hypotheses: a non-lattice demand law, and a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). The mass-exponential demand of Section 8.1.3 (an atom at 000 plus a density) is non-lattice. The approximation β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ\beta \approx e^{-2(.583)(c-E(D))/\sigma}β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ is not stated.
  • Repair model. The M/M/1 queue is not built. The geometric law of NNN (asserted on p. 202) and the binomial split of NNN (quoted from Chapter 3) enter milestone 7 as hypotheses, exactly as the page's proof uses them. The stability condition λ<μ\lambda < \muλ<μ, not written on the page, is a hypothesis. "The optimal sis_isi​" is read as the smallest minimiser of the cost.
  • Ruled out. Stating Theorem 11 with α\alphaα or β\betaβ allowed to depend on vvv, with β=0\beta = 0β=0 (the ratio would be a division by zero, which Lean evaluates to 000), or for a VVV postulated to have an exponential tail proves nothing. Here β,α\beta, \alphaβ,α are quantified before vvv, both are asserted positive, and VVV is constructed from the demands.
  • Not formalized. The mass-exponential approximations (8.3)–(8.4), the Roundy–Muckstadt refinement, the fill-rate formula η(s)\eta(s)η(s) (a definition, whose steady-state identity needs uniform integrability the book does not discuss), the random-capacity chain on p. 186, and the monotonicity of sis_isi​ in μ\muμ.
  • Reusable infrastructure. Welcome: the Lindley recursion and its reversal identity, the Loynes existence theorem, Lundberg's inequality, and a non-lattice renewal theorem. All of these are needed well beyond this mission, in queueing (GI/G/1 waiting times) and ruin theory.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • P. Glasserman, Bounds and asymptotics for planning critical safety stocks, Operations Research 45(2), 244–257, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.2.244
  • P. Glasserman and S. Tayur, Sensitivity analysis for base-stock levels in multiechelon production-inventory systems, Management Science 41(2), 263–281, 1995 (the book's reference [97]). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.2.263
  • R. O. Roundy and J. A. Muckstadt, Heuristic computation of periodic-review base stock inventory policies, Management Science 46(1), 104–109, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.1.104.15131
  • D. V. Lindley, The theory of queues with a single server, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 48(2), 277–289, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100027638
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971, Chapter XII.
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, Chapter XIII. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VIII: Computing Average Cost Optimal Policies by Approximating SequencesTextbook

Motivation

Control problems for queueing systems (admission control, service rate control, routing to parallel servers) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains whose state is a vector of queue lengths. The state space is therefore denumerably infinite, and the performance measure of interest is usually the long-run average cost per slot. For such models the existence theory of average cost optimal stationary policies is well developed (Chapter 7 of Sennott's book), but existence gives no algorithm: an optimal policy is a function on an infinite set, and value iteration cannot be run on an infinite state space.

The approximating sequence method answers this by replacing the infinite model Δ\DeltaΔ with a sequence of finite models ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ on truncated state spaces SNS_NSN​, solving the average cost optimality equation in each, and passing to the limit. Chapter 8 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999) gives a set of conditions, the (AC) assumptions, under which this limit procedure provably produces the minimum average cost and an average cost optimal policy of Δ\DeltaΔ.

Timeline. The approximating sequence method for the average cost criterion and the (AC) assumptions were introduced in Sennott (1997a), with further results in Sennott (1997b) (bibliographic notes, p. 194). The book collects these results, adds the four step verification template (Proposition 8.2.1), the finite-set augmentation route based on the (BOR) assumptions (Proposition 8.2.3), and the weakening (WAC) of Section 8.7, which Chapter 9 uses.

Setting

An MDC Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS, a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​ in each state iii, a finite cost C(i,a)≥0C(i,a)\ge0C(i,a)≥0, and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A general policy θ\thetaθ chooses actions at random using the whole past history. Its average cost is

Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡n→∞1n∑t=0n−1Eθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i],J_\theta(i)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\sum_{t=0}^{n-1}E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i],Jθ​(i)=n→∞limsup​n1​t=0∑n−1​Eθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i],

and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)∈[0,∞]J(i)=\inf_\theta J_\theta(i)\in[0,\infty]J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i)∈[0,∞]. A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta\equiv JJθ​≡J.

An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0(\Delta_N)_{N\ge N_0}(ΔN​)N≥N0​​ consists of finite sets SNS_NSN​ increasing to SSS and MDCs ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ on SNS_NSN​ with the same actions and costs and with transition probabilities Pij(a;N)P_{ij}(a;N)Pij​(a;N) on SNS_NSN​ converging to Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). Write vnNv^N_nvnN​ and VαNV^N_\alphaVαN​ for the nnn-horizon and discounted value functions of ΔN\Delta_NΔN​.

The (AC) assumptions are:

  • (AC1) there are finite constants JNJ^NJN and finite functions rNr^NrN on SNS_NSN​ with
JN+rN(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑j∈SNPij(a;N) rN(j)},i∈SN;(8.1)J^N+r^N(i)=\min_a\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S_N}P_{ij}(a;N)\,r^N(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S_N; \tag{8.1}JN+rN(i)=amin​{C(i,a)+j∈SN​∑​Pij​(a;N)rN(j)},i∈SN​;(8.1)
  • (AC2) lim sup⁡NrN(i)<∞\limsup_N r^N(i)<\inftylimsupN​rN(i)<∞;
  • (AC3) lim inf⁡NrN(i)≥−Q\liminf_N r^N(i)\ge -QliminfN​rN(i)≥−Q for a constant Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0;
  • (AC4) J∗:=lim sup⁡NJN<∞J^*:=\limsup_N J^N<\inftyJ∗:=limsupN​JN<∞ and J∗≤J(i)J^*\le J(i)J∗≤J(i) for all iii.

The (WAC) assumptions of Section 8.7 allow QQQ to depend on the state, at the price of integrability conditions along every stationary policy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.1.1

Under (AC), the limit lim⁡N→∞JN\lim_{N\to\infty}J^NlimN→∞​JN exists and

J(i)=lim⁡N→∞JNfor all i∈S,J(i)=\lim_{N\to\infty}J^N\qquad\text{for all } i\in S,J(i)=N→∞lim​JNfor all i∈S,

and every limit point e∗e^*e∗ of stationary policies eNe^NeN realizing the minimum in (8.1) is average cost optimal for Δ\DeltaΔ. The statement fixes no constants; it asserts the shape of the conclusion for any model satisfying (AC).

Milestones

  • Proposition 8.2.1 (the four step template): unichain and aperiodicity of the finite models, an xxx standard policy at which the approximating sequence is conforming, a comparison of vnNv^N_nvnN​ (or VαNV^N_\alphaVαN​) with vnv_nvn​ (or VαV_\alphaVα​), and a lower bound on vnN−vnN(x)v^N_n - v^N_n(x)vnN​−vnN​(x) together imply that the value iteration limits
rN(i)=lim⁡n→∞(vnN(i)−vnN(x))r^N(i)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\big(v^N_n(i)-v^N_n(x)\big)rN(i)=n→∞lim​(vnN​(i)−vnN​(x))

exist and satisfy (AC).

  • Corollary 8.2.2: on S={0,1,2,… }S=\{0,1,2,\dots\}S={0,1,2,…} with SN={0,…,N}S_N=\{0,\dots,N\}SN​={0,…,N} and excess probability sent to NNN, monotonicity of vnNv^N_nvnN​, vnv_nvn​ and of the first passage moments of a 000 standard policy suffices.
  • Proposition 8.2.3: an augmentation type approximating sequence that sends excess probability to a finite set of cheap states satisfies the template.
  • Proposition 8.5.1: in the single-server queue with Bernoulli(ppp) arrivals and constant service rate a>pa>pa>p,
Jd(a)=Hp(1−p)a−p+pC(a)a.J_{d(a)}=\frac{Hp(1-p)}{a-p}+\frac{pC(a)}{a}.Jd(a)​=a−pHp(1−p)​+apC(a)​.
  • Proposition 8.7.1: the conclusions of Theorem 8.1.1 hold under (WAC).

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 8.1.1 is what turns the existence theory of Chapter 7 into a computation. It certifies that the minimum average costs of the truncations converge to the minimum average cost of the infinite model, that this cost is constant, and that the policies produced by value iteration on ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ converge, along subsequences, to an optimal policy for Δ\DeltaΔ. Propositions 8.2.1–8.2.3 reduce (AC) to properties that can be checked model by model; Section 8.3 checks them for queues with reject option, service rate control, and routing to parallel queues. Proposition 8.7.1 is the version used in Chapter 9 for models whose relative values are not uniformly bounded below. Proposition 8.5.1 gives the closed-form open-loop benchmark used in the numerical study of Section 8.5.

Formalizing it. All results are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would give the first verified convergence theorem for truncations of denumerable-state average cost MDPs, and would make the approximating sequence method usable as a certified reduction from infinite to finite models. The template results (8.2.1–8.2.3) additionally require a formal treatment of conformity of approximating Markov chains (Appendix C.4–C.5), which is of independent use.

Difficulty

The naive argument takes limits in (8.1) along NNN: the minimum over aaa and the finite sums pass to the limit only in the inequality direction, and only after a Fatou-type lemma for sums against the converging distributions Pij(a;N)P_{ij}(a;N)Pij​(a;N) with integrands rNr^NrN that are neither bounded nor monotone. The lower bound −Q-Q−Q in (AC3) is exactly what makes this possible; without it the limit inequality can fail. The limit inequality then produces only an average cost optimality inequality, and turning it into optimality of the limit policy requires a separate argument that a function bounded below and satisfying the inequality yields an upper bound on the average cost. Existence of lim⁡NJN\lim_N J^NlimN​JN is not given: (AC4) controls only the limit superior, and the limit must be identified through every subsequence. For the template results, the difficulty is in the Markov chain side: the convergence of first passage times and costs of the truncated chains, which fails for general approximating sequences (Examples C.4.4, C.4.7).

Formalization scope

The Lean development is in the namespace SennottDP.AvgASM. The state space is any countable type; action sets are Finsets, assumed nonempty; costs are finite and nonnegative (ℝ≥0); transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued, with each row a probability distribution for admissible actions. All value functions and average costs take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞), and every infimum over policies ranges over the full class of history-dependent randomized policies. The JNJ^NJN and rNr^NrN of (AC1) are real; the limits superior and inferior over NNN in (AC2)–(AC4) and (WAC) are taken in EReal, so an unbounded sequence cannot produce a junk finite value. The equality J(i)=lim⁡NJNJ(i)=\lim_N J^NJ(i)=limN​JN is stated in EReal, which also asserts that J(i)J(i)J(i) is finite. Quantities of ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ at states outside SNS_NSN​ are junk values that affect only finitely many NNN for each state.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: JNJ^NJN and rNr^NrN are the witnesses of (AC1), not free variables, the policies eNe^NeN must realize the minimum in (8.1) for those witnesses, and the minimum average cost JJJ is an infimum over all policies, so the goal cannot be satisfied by choosing J∗J^*J∗ or the limit policy.

A complete development needs: the induced process law of a general policy; the average cost optimality inequality argument (Lemma 7.2.1); the finite-state average cost results of Chapter 6 (Propositions 6.4.1, 6.5.1, 6.6.3); a Fatou lemma for converging distributions (Proposition A.2.5); limit points of policy sequences (Proposition B.5); and, for the template results, the theory of zzz standard chains and conformity (Appendix C.2–C.5). The Markov chain layer and the approximating sequence definitions are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any of these intermediate results as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • L. I. Sennott, "The computation of average optimal policies in denumerable state Markov decision chains", Advances in Applied Probability 29 (1997), 114–137 (cited as Sennott (1997a) in the book).
  • L. I. Sennott, "On computing average cost optimal policies with application to routing to parallel queues", ZOR — Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 45 (1997), 45–62 (cited as Sennott (1997b) in the book).
14 thms3 active users
Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems X: Average Cost Optimization of Continuous Time Markov Decision ChainsTextbook

Motivation

Many queueing systems evolve in continuous time: customers arrive according to a Poisson process, services take exponentially distributed times, and a controller may change the service rate, admit or reject customers, or route them whenever the state changes. Minimizing the long-run average cost of such a system is a standard problem in the control of queues (Lippman 1975; Puterman 1994, Ch. 11; Sennott 1999, Ch. 10). The continuous time model does not fit directly into the discrete time theory of Markov decision chains developed in the earlier chapters of Sennott's book, because time spent in a state now matters and the natural average cost is a ratio of expected cost to expected elapsed time.

This mission formalizes Sections 10.1–10.4 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999): the elementary properties of the exponential distribution, the continuous time Markov decision chain and its average cost, a reduction of the continuous time problem to an auxiliary discrete time Markov decision chain, and the theorem stating that finite state approximating sequences of the auxiliary chain compute optimal average costs and optimal stationary policies of the continuous time chain. The chapter closes with an explicit average cost computation for the M/M/1 queue with service rate control.

Setting

A random variable XXX has the exponential distribution with rate μ>0\mu>0μ>0 if P(X≤t)=1−e−μtP(X\le t)=1-e^{-\mu t}P(X≤t)=1−e−μt for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. A function r(δ)r(\delta)r(δ) is o(δ)o(\delta)o(δ) if r(δ)/δ→0r(\delta)/\delta\to0r(δ)/δ→0 as δ→0+\delta\to0^+δ→0+.

A continuous time Markov decision chain (CTMDC) Ψ\PsiΨ has a countable state space SSS and, for each i∈Si\in Si∈S, a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​. Choosing a∈Aia\in A_ia∈Ai​ in state iii incurs an instantaneous cost G(i,a)≥0G(i,a)\ge0G(i,a)≥0 and a cost rate g(i,a)≥0g(i,a)\ge0g(i,a)≥0 in effect until the next transition. The time until the next transition is exponential with rate ν(i,a)>0\nu(i,a)>0ν(i,a)>0, so its mean is τ(i,a)=1/ν(i,a)\tau(i,a)=1/\nu(i,a)τ(i,a)=1/ν(i,a); the next state is jjj with probability Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a), where Pii(a)=0P_{ii}(a)=0Pii​(a)=0. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses, at each transition, an action (possibly at random) from the history of past states, actions and sojourn times; a stationary policy eee chooses e(i)e(i)e(i) in state iii. With CnC_nCn​ the cost and TnT_nTn​ the time of the first nnn transition periods, the average cost and the minimum average cost are

JθΨ(i)=lim sup⁡n→∞Eθ[Cn∣X0=i]Eθ[Tn∣X0=i],JΨ(i)=inf⁡θJθΨ(i).J^\Psi_\theta(i)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac{E_\theta[C_n\mid X_0=i]}{E_\theta[T_n\mid X_0=i]},\qquad J^\Psi(i)=\inf_\theta J^\Psi_\theta(i).JθΨ​(i)=n→∞limsup​Eθ​[Tn​∣X0​=i]Eθ​[Cn​∣X0​=i]​,JΨ(i)=θinf​JθΨ​(i).

Assumption (CTB) requires constants τ\tauτ and BBB with 0<τ<inf⁡i,aτ(i,a)≤sup⁡i,aτ(i,a)≤B<∞0<\tau<\inf_{i,a}\tau(i,a)\le\sup_{i,a}\tau(i,a)\le B<\infty0<τ<infi,a​τ(i,a)≤supi,a​τ(i,a)≤B<∞. The auxiliary MDC Δ\DeltaΔ has the same states and actions, costs C(i,a)=G(i,a)ν(i,a)+g(i,a)C(i,a)=G(i,a)\nu(i,a)+g(i,a)C(i,a)=G(i,a)ν(i,a)+g(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij∗(a)=τν(i,a)Pij(a)P^*_{ij}(a)=\tau\nu(i,a)P_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a)=τν(i,a)Pij​(a) for j≠ij\ne ij=i, Pii∗(a)=1−τν(i,a)P^*_{ii}(a)=1-\tau\nu(i,a)Pii∗​(a)=1−τν(i,a). Its average cost JθΔ(i)=lim sup⁡nn−1∑t<nEθ[C(Xt,Yt)]J^\Delta_\theta(i)=\limsup_n n^{-1}\sum_{t<n}E_\theta[C(X_t,Y_t)]JθΔ​(i)=limsupn​n−1∑t<n​Eθ​[C(Xt​,Yt​)] and minimum average cost JΔ(i)J^\Delta(i)JΔ(i) are those of Chapter 2. Assumption (CTAC) is JΔ(⋅)≤JΨ(⋅)J^\Delta(\cdot)\le J^\Psi(\cdot)JΔ(⋅)≤JΨ(⋅).

An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0(\Delta_N)_{N\ge N_0}(ΔN​)N≥N0​​ for Δ\DeltaΔ uses finite state spaces SNS_NSN​ increasing to SSS and transition probabilities Pij∗(a;N)P^*_{ij}(a;N)Pij∗​(a;N) on SNS_NSN​ converging to Pij∗(a)P^*_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a). The (AC) assumptions ask for constants JNJ^NJN and functions rNr^NrN on SNS_NSN​ solving

JN+rN(i)=min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑j∈SNPij∗(a;N) rN(j)},i∈SN, N≥N0,(10.21)J^N+r^N(i)=\min_{a\in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S_N}P^*_{ij}(a;N)\,r^N(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S_N,\ N\ge N_0,\tag{10.21}JN+rN(i)=a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∈SN​∑​Pij∗​(a;N)rN(j)},i∈SN​, N≥N0​,(10.21)

with lim sup⁡NrN(i)<∞\limsup_N r^N(i)<\inftylimsupN​rN(i)<∞, lim inf⁡NrN(i)≥−Q\liminf_N r^N(i)\ge-QliminfN​rN(i)≥−Q for a constant Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0, and lim sup⁡NJN=:J∗<∞\limsup_N J^N=:J^*<\inftylimsupN​JN=:J∗<∞, J∗≤JΔ(i)J^*\le J^\Delta(i)J∗≤JΔ(i).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.3.3

Under (CTB), (CTAC) and the (AC) assumptions for an approximating sequence of Δ\DeltaΔ:

J∗=lim⁡N→∞JN exists and JΔ(i)=JΨ(i)=J∗(i∈S),J^*=\lim_{N\to\infty}J^N\ \text{exists and}\ J^\Delta(i)=J^\Psi(i)=J^*\quad(i\in S),J∗=N→∞lim​JN exists and JΔ(i)=JΨ(i)=J∗(i∈S),

and every limit point e∗e^*e∗ of a sequence eNe^NeN of stationary policies realizing the minimum in (10.21) satisfies Je∗Δ=JΔJ^\Delta_{e^*}=J^\DeltaJe∗Δ​=JΔ and Je∗Ψ=JΨJ^\Psi_{e^*}=J^\PsiJe∗Ψ​=JΨ. The goal leaves the chain, the approximating sequence and the constants of (CTB) arbitrary.

Milestones

  • Proposition 10.1.2: P(X>x+y∣X>y)=P(X>x)P(X>x+y\mid X>y)=P(X>x)P(X>x+y∣X>y)=P(X>x) for x,y>0x,y>0x,y>0, and P(X≤δ)=μδ+o(δ)P(X\le\delta)=\mu\delta+o(\delta)P(X≤δ)=μδ+o(δ).
  • Proposition 10.1.3: for independent exponentials, P(X1≤δ,X2≤δ)=o(δ)P(X_1\le\delta,X_2\le\delta)=o(\delta)P(X1​≤δ,X2​≤δ)=o(δ), P(X1<X2)=μ1/(μ1+μ2)P(X_1<X_2)=\mu_1/(\mu_1+\mu_2)P(X1​<X2​)=μ1​/(μ1​+μ2​), and min⁡(X1,X2)\min(X_1,X_2)min(X1​,X2​) is exponential with rate μ1+μ2\mu_1+\mu_2μ1​+μ2​.
  • Lemma 10.3.1: if zzz is bounded below and Zτ(i,e)+z(i)≥G(i,e)+g(i,e)τ(i,e)+∑jPij(e)z(j)Z\tau(i,e)+z(i)\ge G(i,e)+g(i,e)\tau(i,e)+\sum_jP_{ij}(e)z(j)Zτ(i,e)+z(i)≥G(i,e)+g(i,e)τ(i,e)+∑j​Pij​(e)z(j) for all iii (10.15), then JeΨ≤ZJ^\Psi_e\le ZJeΨ​≤Z.
  • Lemma 10.3.2: (Z,w)(Z,w)(Z,w) satisfies Z+w(i)≥C(i,e)+∑jPij∗(e)w(j)Z+w(i)\ge C(i,e)+\sum_jP^*_{ij}(e)w(j)Z+w(i)≥C(i,e)+∑j​Pij∗​(e)w(j) (10.20) if and only if (Z,τw)(Z,\tau w)(Z,τw) satisfies (10.15).
  • Proposition 10.4.1: in the M/M/1 queue with arrival rate λ\lambdaλ, holding cost H(i)=HiH(i)=HiH(i)=Hi and service cost rate c(a)c(a)c(a), the policy that always serves at rate a>λa>\lambdaa>λ has average cost ρac(a)+Hρa/(1−ρa)\rho_ac(a)+H\rho_a/(1-\rho_a)ρa​c(a)+Hρa​/(1−ρa​), ρa=λ/a\rho_a=\lambda/aρa​=λ/a.

Significance

The goal theorem turns the average cost control of a continuous time chain on an infinite state space into a finite computation: solve the optimality equation (10.21) of a finite truncation of the auxiliary chain, let the truncation grow, and read off the optimal average cost and an optimal stationary policy of the original continuous time chain. The auxiliary chain is the book's form of uniformization, and the result is what licenses the numerical study of the M/M/1 service rate control problem in Section 10.4 and of the M/M/K and polling models in Sections 10.5–10.6. Proposition 10.4.1 gives the closed-form benchmark against which the computed optimal policy is compared.

The results are proved in the book, some with details left to the reader (Lemma 10.3.2(ii), Problem 10.10), and the goal rests on Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1 of the same book. None of them has, as far as a search of Mathlib and the Prove2Me catalogue shows, a machine-checked proof: Mathlib provides the exponential law (ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure) and its distribution function, but not memorylessness or the minimum of independent exponentials, and no continuous time Markov decision model. A formalization would supply these, together with a checked average cost comparison between a continuous time chain and its discrete time auxiliary chain.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the two chains policy by policy, but the policy classes differ: a policy for Δ\DeltaΔ may change action in every time slot, including slots where the state does not change, while a policy for Ψ\PsiΨ acts only at transitions and may use the observed sojourn times. Only the stationary policies coincide. The lower bound JΨ≥J∗J^\Psi\ge J^*JΨ≥J∗ therefore cannot be obtained by transferring policies, and it is exactly what Assumption (CTAC) supplies. The upper bound requires passing from the discrete time inequality (10.20) for the limit point e∗e^*e∗ to a bound on a ratio of expected cost to expected time in continuous time, where the denominator depends on the policy; the uniform bounds of (CTB) on the mean sojourn times are what control it. Inside Lemma 10.3.1 the function zzz is only bounded below, so the telescoping of expectations must be justified without integrability of zzz from above.

Formalization scope

The state space is a countable type S, actions a type Act, and action sets A i : Finset Act; the CTMDC and MDC structures hold data, and their axioms (nonempty action sets, nonnegative costs, positive rates, stochastic transition rows with Pii(a)=0P_{ii}(a)=0Pii​(a)=0) are separate predicates. Transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued; costs, rates and the functions z,w,rNz,w,r^Nz,w,rN are real. Expected costs, expected times and all average costs are ℝ≥0∞-valued, so +∞+\infty+∞ is a legitimate value, and they are compared with real constants in EReal; the limits superior and inferior of (AC) are taken in EReal. The expected cost of nnn transition periods under a general policy is a recursion over the periods in which the sojourn time is integrated against expMeasure ν(i,a) and the next state is drawn independently from Pi⋅(a)P_{i\cdot}(a)Pi⋅​(a); policies are measurable in the past sojourn times. In (10.15) and (10.20) the convergence of the series is part of the inequality. The strict inequality τ<inf⁡τ(i,a)\tau<\inf\tau(i,a)τ<infτ(i,a) of (CTB) is kept strict (as a positive margin); weakening it to ≤\le≤ would make Pii∗(a)P^*_{ii}(a)Pii∗​(a) vanish or turn negative.

The average cost JθΨJ^\Psi_\thetaJθΨ​ is a ratio of expectations, not the expectation of a ratio, and the infimum JΨJ^\PsiJΨ ranges over history dependent randomized policies that may use sojourn times; replacing either by a stationary-only class, or dropping (CTAC), gives a different theorem.

A complete development needs: expected rewards of a chain with exponential holding times, the average cost theory of Chapter 8 for the auxiliary chain (Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1, restated here as needed), and renewal-reward reasoning for Proposition 10.4.1. The exponential-distribution lemmas are reusable beyond this mission and are welcome as independent contributions.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, John Wiley & Sons, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
  • S. A. Lippman, Applying a new device in the optimization of exponential queuing systems, Operations Research 23(4), 687–710, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.23.4.687
  • D. Gross and C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 3rd ed., John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems XIV: Conforming Approximating Sequences for Markov ChainsTextbook

Motivation

Countable-state Markov chains are the standard model of queues with unbounded buffers, but any numerical computation of their long-run behaviour works on a finite state space. The usual remedy is truncation: restrict the chain to a finite set SNS_NSN​ and redistribute the probability of leaving SNS_NSN​ back into it. Whether the steady state probabilities and average costs of the truncated chains converge to those of the original chain depends on how that probability is redistributed. Gibson and Seneta studied this question for the stationary distributions of chains without costs (Gibson and Seneta, J. Appl. Prob., 1987). Sennott extended it to chains with costs and expected first passage costs (Sennott, Adv. Appl. Prob. 29, 1997; ZOR Math. Meth. Oper. Res. 45, 1997), and used it as the basis of the approximating sequence method for average-cost Markov decision chains (Sennott, 1999, Chapter 8). This mission covers Appendix C, Sections C.4–C.5 of the 1999 book, the Markov-chain results that the book's average-cost approximation theorems use.

Setting

A Markov chain with costs Γ\GammaΓ on a denumerable state space SSS has transition probabilities PijP_{ij}Pij​ with ∑jPij=1\sum_jP_{ij}=1∑j​Pij​=1 and a finite nonnegative cost C(i)C(i)C(i) at each state. For a set G⊆SG\subseteq SG⊆S and a start iii, TiG≥1T_{iG}\ge 1TiG​≥1 is the first passage time to GGG. The taboo probability GPik(t){}_GP^{(t)}_{ik}G​Pik(t)​ is the probability of moving from iii to kkk in ttt steps with no intermediate state in GGG. The expected visits Guik{}_Gu_{ik}G​uik​ count the visits to kkk at times 0≤t<TiG0\le t<T_{iG}0≤t<TiG​. The mean first passage time is miG=E[TiG]m_{iG}=E[T_{iG}]miG​=E[TiG​], infinite when GGG is missed with positive probability. The first passage cost is ciG=E[∑t<TiGC(Xt)]c_{iG}=E\big[\sum_{t<T_{iG}}C(X_t)\big]ciG​=E[∑t<TiG​​C(Xt​)]. A state iii is positive recurrent when mii<∞m_{ii}<\inftymii​<∞, and the steady state probability is πi=mii−1\pi_i=m_{ii}^{-1}πi​=mii−1​. On a positive recurrent class RRR the average cost is JR=∑j∈RπjC(j)J_R=\sum_{j\in R}\pi_jC(j)JR​=∑j∈R​πj​C(j). The chain is zzz standard when miz<∞m_{iz}<\inftymiz​<∞ and ciz<∞c_{iz}<\inftyciz​<∞ for every iii. Such a chain has one positive recurrent class R∋zR\ni zR∋z with JR<∞J_R<\inftyJR​<∞, and every other state is transient.

An approximating sequence (AS) (ΓN)N≥N0(\Gamma_N)_{N\ge N_0}(ΓN​)N≥N0​​ consists of increasing nonempty finite sets SNS_NSN​ with ⋃NSN=S\bigcup_NS_N=S⋃N​SN​=S and, for each NNN, a chain ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ on SNS_NSN​ with the same costs and transition probabilities Pij(N)→PijP_{ij}(N)\to P_{ij}Pij​(N)→Pij​. The quantities of ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ are written miG(N)m_{iG}(N)miG​(N), ciG(N)c_{iG}(N)ciG​(N), πi(N)\pi_i(N)πi​(N) and J(i)(N)J(i)(N)J(i)(N). An AS is conforming (for a zzz standard Γ\GammaΓ) if, for large NNN, ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ is unichain with zzz in its positive recurrent class, and miz(N)→mizm_{iz}(N)\to m_{iz}miz​(N)→miz​ and ciz(N)→cizc_{iz}(N)\to c_{iz}ciz​(N)→ciz​ for all iii. It is conforming on RRR if πi(N)→πi\pi_i(N)\to\pi_iπi​(N)→πi​ and J(i)(N)→JRJ(i)(N)\to J_RJ(i)(N)→JR​ on RRR.

An augmentation type approximating sequence (ATAS) keeps the original probabilities inside SNS_NSN​ and redistributes the probability of each excluded target r∉SNr\notin S_Nr∈/SN​ according to an augmentation distribution q⋅(i,r,N)q_\cdot(i,r,N)q⋅​(i,r,N) on SNS_NSN​:

Pij(N)=Pij+∑r∈S−SNPir qj(i,r,N),j∈SN.P_{ij}(N)=P_{ij}+\sum_{r\in S-S_N}P_{ir}\,q_j(i,r,N),\qquad j\in S_N.Pij​(N)=Pij​+r∈S−SN​∑​Pir​qj​(i,r,N),j∈SN​.

It sends excess probability to GGG if every q⋅(i,r,N)q_\cdot(i,r,N)q⋅​(i,r,N) is concentrated on GGG.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition C.5.2

For a zzz standard chain Γ\GammaΓ and a finite nonempty G⊆SG\subseteq SG⊆S,

every ATAS that sends excess probability to G is conforming,\text{every ATAS that sends excess probability to } G \text{ is conforming},every ATAS that sends excess probability to G is conforming,

and if G⊆RG\subseteq RG⊆R it is also conforming on RRR. No rate of convergence and no constants are involved, and GGG need not contain zzz.

Milestones

  1. Proposition C.4.2: for fixed ttt, lim⁡NGPik(t)(N)=GPik(t)\lim_N{}_GP^{(t)}_{ik}(N)={}_GP^{(t)}_{ik}limN​G​Pik(t)​(N)=G​Pik(t)​; also lim inf⁡NGuik(N)≥Guik\liminf_N{}_Gu_{ik}(N)\ge{}_Gu_{ik}liminfN​G​uik​(N)≥G​uik​ and lim inf⁡NmiG(N)≥miG\liminf_Nm_{iG}(N)\ge m_{iG}liminfN​miG​(N)≥miG​.
  2. Proposition C.4.3: πi(N)→0\pi_i(N)\to0πi​(N)→0 off the positive recurrent states, and along subsequences πi(Ns)→bπi\pi_i(N_s)\to b\pi_iπi​(Ns​)→bπi​ on a class, with 0≤b≤10\le b\le10≤b≤1.
  3. Proposition C.4.5: lim inf⁡NciG(N)≥ciG\liminf_Nc_{iG}(N)\ge c_{iG}liminfN​ciG​(N)≥ciG​.
  4. Proposition C.4.6: on a positive recurrent class, convergence of π\piπ, of mzzm_{zz}mzz​ and of all miGm_{iG}miG​ are equivalent. Given these, convergence of J(i)J(i)J(i), of czzc_{zz}czz​ and of all ciGc_{iG}ciG​ are equivalent.
  5. Proposition C.4.9: conformity implies πi(N)→πi\pi_i(N)\to\pi_iπi​(N)→πi​ for all iii, and that the constant average costs J(N)J(N)J(N) of ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ converge to JRJ_RJR​.

Further results

  1. Proposition C.5.3: an ATAS is conforming when, for N≥N∗N\ge N^*N≥N∗, the augmentation distributions satisfy ∑j≠zqj(i,r,N)mjz≤mrz\sum_{j\ne z}q_j(i,r,N)m_{jz}\le m_{rz}∑j=z​qj​(i,r,N)mjz​≤mrz​ and ∑j≠zqj(i,r,N)cjz≤crz\sum_{j\ne z}q_j(i,r,N)c_{jz}\le c_{rz}∑j=z​qj​(i,r,N)cjz​≤crz​.
  2. Corollary C.5.4: for a 000 standard chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} with an upper Hessenberg transition matrix, truncated to SN={0,…,N}S_N=\{0,\dots,N\}SN​={0,…,N} with the excess sent to NNN, the ATAS is conforming.

Significance

The result. Conformity is the hypothesis under which the book's approximating sequence method works for average-cost queueing control (Chapter 8). The method computes optimal policies for finite truncations and passes to the limit. That argument needs the first passage times and costs to a distinguished state to converge along the chains induced by fixed policies. Propositions C.5.2 and C.5.3 turn this analytic requirement into conditions on the truncation scheme that can be checked in practice: send the overflow to a fixed finite set, or to states from which reaching zzz is no more expensive. Examples C.4.4 and C.4.7 of the book show that an arbitrary approximating sequence can fail. The limit of the steady state probabilities can be a strict multiple bπb\pibπ with b<1b<1b<1. First passage costs can converge to the wrong value even when the steady state probabilities converge.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the book, some in abbreviated form ("the proof for the costs is similar and is omitted"). The Prove2Me library had no statement on truncation or augmentation of countable Markov chains when this mission was drafted (September 2026). A formalization supplies the omitted cost arguments, makes the passage between lim inf⁡\liminfliminf bounds and limits in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] explicit, and produces a reusable library of first passage quantities for countable chains.

Difficulty

The lower bounds of Propositions C.4.2 and C.4.5 are the routine part. The difficulty is the matching upper bound: in ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​, a first passage that leaves SNS_NSN​ is restarted elsewhere, which can lengthen it without bound. Taking limits termwise in the first passage equation miz(N)=1+∑j≠zPij(N)mjz(N)m_{iz}(N)=1+\sum_{j\ne z}P_{ij}(N)m_{jz}(N)miz​(N)=1+∑j=z​Pij​(N)mjz​(N) fails, because no dominating function is available and mass can escape to infinity. Example C.4.4 exhibits exactly this. Unichain structure is also not automatic: ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ may have several recurrent classes, or a recurrent class not containing zzz, and ruling this out is part of the conclusion rather than an assumption.

Formalization scope

The Lean development works in SennottDP.ChainASM. A chain is a structure MC S with P : S → S → ℝ≥0∞, ∑' j, P i j = 1 and C : S → ℝ≥0. Theorems assume [Countable S] [Infinite S], matching the book's denumerable state space. Taboo probabilities, expected visits, miGm_{iG}miG​, ciGc_{iG}ciG​, πj=(mjj)−1\pi_j=(m_{jj})^{-1}πj​=(mjj​)−1 and JR=∑j∈RπjC(j)J_R=\sum_{j\in R}\pi_jC(j)JR​=∑j∈R​πj​C(j) are defined as sums in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. miG=∑t≥0P(TiG>t)m_{iG}=\sum_{t\ge0}P(T_{iG}>t)miG​=∑t≥0​P(TiG​>t) is infinite whenever GGG is missed with positive probability. The average cost J(i)J(i)J(i) is the lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup of the Cesàro cost averages.

An AS is a structure carrying N0N_0N0​, the finite sets SNS_NSN​ (as Finset S) and Pij(N)P_{ij}(N)Pij​(N). ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ is built as an MC on the subtype of SNS_NSN​, and a set GGG is read in ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ as G∩SNG\cap S_NG∩SN​. Quantities of ΓN\Gamma_NΓN​ are lifted to functions of NNN and of states of SSS with the value 000 where they are undefined (N<N0N<N_0N<N0​ or a state outside SNS_NSN​). For fixed states this affects finitely many NNN, and all statements are limits, lim inf⁡\liminfliminfs or eventual equalities. All convergence is in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The conformity predicate includes the standing assumption that Γ\GammaΓ is zzz standard. The positive recurrent class RRR of a zzz standard chain is the communicating class of zzz.

A trivializing formalization is excluded: the AS of Example C.4.4, whose positive recurrent class {N}\{N\}{N} excludes z=0z=0z=0, is not conforming under these definitions. The ATAS predicate requires the augmentation distributions to be probability distributions and to reproduce Pij(N)P_{ij}(N)Pij​(N) exactly by (C.27).

A complete development needs first passage decompositions for countable chains, the renewal-reward identity JR=czz/mzzJ_R=c_{zz}/m_{zz}JR​=czz​/mzz​, and dominated and Fatou-type limit theorems for sums (the book's Appendix A). The first passage library and the lifted-quantity conventions can be reused by the average-cost approximation chapters. Contributions of intermediate lemmas are welcome, especially the finite-state unichain facts of Section C.3 and the identities of Propositions C.1.4 and C.2.2.

Proposition C.5.5 (lower Hessenberg chains, from Gibson and Seneta) is stated in the book without proof and without naming the distinguished state, and is not included.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999, Appendix C, Sections C.4–C.5. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • L. I. Sennott, "The computation of average optimal policies in denumerable state Markov decision chains", Advances in Applied Probability 29 (1997) 114–137 (cited in the book as Sennott 1997a).
  • L. I. Sennott, "On computing average cost optimal policies with application to routing to parallel queues", ZOR Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 45 (1997) 45–62 (cited in the book as Sennott 1997b).
  • D. Gibson and E. Seneta, "Augmented truncations of infinite stochastic matrices", Journal of Applied Probability (1987).
10 thms2 active usersReviewed
Numerical AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions IX: Convergence of the r-Algorithm with Exact Directional MinimizationTextbook

Motivation

The r-algorithm of N. Z. Shor is a variable-metric method for minimizing functions that are not differentiable everywhere, such as maxima of smooth functions, penalty functions and Lagrangian dual functions of integer and decomposition problems. It combines a subgradient step with a space dilation along the difference of two successive almost-gradients, and the book reports it competitive with the best variable-metric and conjugate-gradient methods on "gully"-shaped test problems (Shor 1985, §3.6, pp. 68–77). Its convergence theory is limited. Section 3.7 of Shor's book gives a convergence proof only for an idealized version with exact directional minimization, on a class of piecewise smooth functions, and the book itself calls a weakening of the assumptions and rate estimates desirable (p. 85). This mission formalizes that section.

Timeline. Shor and Zhurbenko introduced the r-algorithm in 1971 (Kibernetika, no. 3, 51–59). Shor analysed the convergence of its exact-line-search version in 1975 (Kibernetika, no. 4, 48–53). Section 3.7 of the 1979 Russian monograph, translated in 1985, gives that analysis for piecewise smooth functions. The book states on p. 85 that weaker assumptions and rate estimates would be desirable.

Setting

Let EnE_nEn​ be nnn-dimensional Euclidean space with inner product (x,y)(x, y)(x,y), n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. For a unit vector ξ\xiξ and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the operator of space dilation is Rα(ξ)x=x+(α−1)(x,ξ)ξR_\alpha(\xi)x = x + (\alpha - 1)(x, \xi)\xiRα​(ξ)x=x+(α−1)(x,ξ)ξ.

Widths. For a compact convex set WWW and a unit vector η\etaη, the width in direction η\etaη is dη(W)=max⁡x∈W(η,x)−min⁡x∈W(η,x)d_\eta(W) = \max_{x \in W}(\eta, x) - \min_{x \in W}(\eta, x)dη​(W)=maxx∈W​(η,x)−minx∈W​(η,x). The width is d(W)=min⁡∥η∥=1dη(W)d(W) = \min_{\|\eta\| = 1} d_\eta(W)d(W)=min∥η∥=1​dη​(W) and the diameter is D(W)=max⁡∥η∥=1dη(W)D(W) = \max_{\|\eta\| = 1} d_\eta(W)D(W)=max∥η∥=1​dη​(W). With eρ(W)=inf⁡z∈W∣(ρ,z)∣e_\rho(W) = \inf_{z \in W}|(\rho, z)|eρ​(W)=infz∈W​∣(ρ,z)∣ put Kρ(W)=dρ(W)/eρ(W)K_\rho(W) = d_\rho(W)/e_\rho(W)Kρ​(W)=dρ​(W)/eρ​(W) (or +∞+\infty+∞ when eρ(W)=0e_\rho(W) = 0eρ​(W)=0) and p(W)=inf⁡∥ρ∥=1Kρ(W)p(W) = \inf_{\|\rho\| = 1} K_\rho(W)p(W)=inf∥ρ∥=1​Kρ​(W).

The class KKK. EnE_nEn​ is partitioned into closed sets Dˉ1,…,Dˉm\bar D_1, \dots, \bar D_mDˉ1​,…,Dˉm​, each the closure of its interior, whose interiors are disjoint and homeomorphic to an open ball or open halfspace; fif_ifi​ is continuously differentiable on an open set containing Dˉi\bar D_iDˉi​; and f=fif = f_if=fi​ on Dˉi\bar D_iDˉi​. At a point xxx, the set of almost-gradients Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the set of gradients ∇fi(x)\nabla f_i(x)∇fi​(x) of the pieces with x∈Dˉix \in \bar D_ix∈Dˉi​. For δ,ε>0\delta, \varepsilon > 0δ,ε>0, Pˉδ,ε(x)\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x)Pˉδ,ε​(x) is the closed convex hull of all Gf(y)G_f(y)Gf​(y), ∥y−x∥<δ\|y - x\| < \delta∥y−x∥<δ, together with the ε\varepsilonε-balls around the elements of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x).

The r(α)r(\alpha)r(α)-algorithm. Fix α>1\alpha > 1α>1, β=1/α\beta = 1/\alphaβ=1/α. Start from x0x_0x0​, g~0=0\tilde g_0 = 0g~​0​=0 and a nonsingular B0B_0B0​. At iteration k+1k + 1k+1 choose gf(xk)∈Gf(xk)g_f(x_k) \in G_f(x_k)gf​(xk​)∈Gf​(xk​) with (Bk∗gf(xk),g~k)≤0(B_k^* g_f(x_k), \tilde g_k) \le 0(Bk∗​gf​(xk​),g~​k​)≤0; set gk∗=Bk∗gf(xk)g_k^* = B_k^* g_f(x_k)gk∗​=Bk∗​gf​(xk​), rk=gk∗−g~kr_k = g_k^* - \tilde g_krk​=gk∗​−g~​k​, ξk+1=rk/∥rk∥\xi_{k+1} = r_k/\|r_k\|ξk+1​=rk​/∥rk​∥, Bk+1=BkRβ(ξk+1)B_{k+1} = B_k R_\beta(\xi_{k+1})Bk+1​=Bk​Rβ​(ξk+1​), g~k+1=Rβ(ξk+1)gk∗\tilde g_{k+1} = R_\beta(\xi_{k+1}) g_k^*g~​k+1​=Rβ​(ξk+1​)gk∗​, and xk+1=xk−hk+1Bk+1g~k+1x_{k+1} = x_k - h_{k+1}B_{k+1}\tilde g_{k+1}xk+1​=xk​−hk+1​Bk+1​g~​k+1​ with hk+1≥0h_{k+1} \ge 0hk+1​≥0 such that fff does not increase along the step and some almost-gradient at xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ makes a non-acute angle with g~k+1\tilde g_{k+1}g~​k+1​ in the transformed metric. The standing assumption is f(x)→+∞f(x) \to +\inftyf(x)→+∞ as ∥x∥→∞\|x\| \to \infty∥x∥→∞ (3.50).

Formalization targets

Goal: convergence to an isolated local minimum (Theorem 3.13)

Assume (3.50) and ∥xk+1−xk∥→0\|x_{k+1} - x_k\| \to 0∥xk+1​−xk​∥→0 (3.52). If x∗x^*x∗ is an isolated local minimum, the component of {x:f(x∗)≤f(x)≤f(x0)}\{x : f(x^*) \le f(x) \le f(x_0)\}{x:f(x∗)≤f(x)≤f(x0​)} containing x0x_0x0​ also contains x∗x^*x∗, and no other point zzz of that component has linearly dependent Gf(z)G_f(z)Gf​(z), then

lim⁡k→∞xk=x∗.\lim_{k \to \infty} x_k = x^* .k→∞lim​xk​=x∗.

Milestones

  • Lemma 3.2 (p. 80): for B=SOB = SOB=SO with minimum eigenvalue λ(B)\lambda(B)λ(B) of SSS, λ(B)d(W)≤d(BW)≤λ(B)D(W)\lambda(B)d(W) \le d(BW) \le \lambda(B)D(W)λ(B)d(W)≤d(BW)≤λ(B)D(W).
  • Lemma 3.3 (p. 80): for z1,z2∈Wz_1, z_2 \in Wz1​,z2​∈W, 0<β≤10 < \beta \le 10<β≤1 and γ=∥z1−z2∥/d(W)≥1\gamma = \|z_1 - z_2\|/d(W) \ge 1γ=∥z1​−z2​∥/d(W)≥1,
d(Rβ(z1−z2∥z1−z2∥)W)≥d(W)1+(1−β2)/(β2γ2).d\Big(R_\beta\big(\tfrac{z_1 - z_2}{\|z_1 - z_2\|}\big)W\Big) \ge \frac{d(W)}{\sqrt{1 + (1-\beta^2)/(\beta^2\gamma^2)}} .d(Rβ​(∥z1​−z2​∥z1​−z2​​)W)≥1+(1−β2)/(β2γ2)​d(W)​.
  • Theorem 3.11 (p. 82): for every βn<v<1\sqrt[n]{\beta} < v < 1nβ​<v<1, ε,δ>0\varepsilon, \delta > 0ε,δ>0 and r≥1r \ge 1r≥1 there is kˉ>r\bar k > rkˉ>r with
p(Pˉδ,ε(xkˉ))≥v2α2n−1α2−1.p\big(\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x_{\bar k})\big) \ge \sqrt{\frac{v^2\sqrt[n]{\alpha^2} - 1}{\alpha^2 - 1}} .p(Pˉδ,ε​(xkˉ​))≥α2−1v2nα2​−1​​.
  • Theorem 3.12 (p. 84): the level set {f=f∞}\{f = f_\infty\}{f=f∞​}, f∞=lim⁡kf(xk)f_\infty = \lim_k f(x_k)f∞​=limk​f(xk​), contains a point x∗x^*x∗ with Gf(x∗)G_f(x^*)Gf​(x∗) linearly dependent.

Significance

Theorem 3.13 is the only convergence theorem the book gives for the r-algorithm. Theorems 3.11 and 3.12 hold for any function of the class KKK, convex or not, and say that iterates of the exact version cannot stall at a point where the local almost-gradients are linearly independent: linear dependence of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is a generalized stationarity condition that includes 0∈conv⁡Gf(x)0 \in \operatorname{conv} G_f(x)0∈convGf​(x). Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3 are statements about widths of convex bodies under linear maps and single dilations, and apply to any analysis of space-dilation methods, including the ellipsoid method.

All four results and the goal are proved in the book, the goal as a corollary without a written proof. None of them is formalized. The formalization adds a machine-checked definition of the class KKK and of the algorithm as a relation on sequences covering every admissible choice of almost-gradients and stepsizes, a verified proof of the book's argument, and a check of the corollary step, which the book leaves to the reader.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for descent methods is that the function value drops by a fixed amount at every step unless the gradient is small. That argument fails here. The r-algorithm can make null steps, with xk+1=xkx_{k+1} = x_kxk+1​=xk​ while BkB_kBk​ and g~k\tilde g_kg~​k​ change, and its steps are measured in a metric that degenerates as the dilations accumulate (det⁡Bk=βkdet⁡B0\det B_k = \beta^k \det B_0detBk​=βkdetB0​). A small step does not certify near-stationarity, and a large accumulated dilation does not certify progress.

The difficulty is to relate the geometry of the transformed almost-gradient sets Bk∗Pˉδ,ε(xk)B_k^*\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x_k)Bk∗​Pˉδ,ε​(xk​) to the decay forced on BkB_kBk​. This needs width estimates for convex bodies under linear maps and single dilations, which Mathlib does not have. Theorem 3.12 also needs a uniform lower bound, near a compact level set, on the Gram determinants of the piece gradients, and the book's proof of it is only sketched. Theorem 3.13 is stated as a corollary with no proof at all. Deriving it requires showing that the iterates cannot leave the prescribed component of {f(x∗)≤f≤f(x0)}\{f(x^*) \le f \le f(x_0)\}{f(x∗)≤f≤f(x0​)}, and that their accumulation points reduce to x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization scope

  • EnE_nEn​ is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with n≥1n \ge 1n≥1; operators are continuous linear maps; Bk∗B_k^*Bk∗​ is the adjoint. KρK_\rhoKρ​ and ppp are valued in [0,+∞][0, +\infty][0,+∞], so Kρ(W)=+∞K_\rho(W) = +\inftyKρ​(W)=+∞ is represented exactly. Widths are sInf/sSup of support values, equal to the book's minima and maxima on nonempty compact sets.
  • A function of class KKK is given with its representation (pieces, open domains, smooth fif_ifi​), and Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the set of gradients of the incident pieces, as on p. 79. Linear dependence of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the negation of linear independence of that set.
  • A run of the algorithm is a predicate on sequences xk,g~k,Bk,gf(xk),hk+1x_k, \tilde g_k, B_k, g_f(x_k), h_{k+1}xk​,g~​k​,Bk​,gf​(xk​),hk+1​; every theorem holds for every run. Step (3) divides by ∥rk∥\|r_k\|∥rk​∥, so rk≠0r_k \ne 0rk​=0 is part of the run: a run that reaches a point where no admissible choice gives rk≠0r_k \ne 0rk​=0 has no continuation, as in the book. The stepsize hk+1=argmin⁡h_{k+1} = \operatorname{argmin}hk+1​=argmin is one admissible choice, not the definition.
  • The standing assumption (3.50) is a hypothesis of Theorem 3.11 as well as of 3.12 and 3.13, because the book imposes it for the rest of the section on p. 79.
  • In Lemma 3.3, β>0\beta > 0β>0 is added (the bound divides by β2\beta^2β2). "Body" means nonempty interior. An isolated local minimum is a local minimum with a neighbourhood containing no other local minimum.
  • Runs exist, so the hypotheses are not vacuous. For f(t)=∣t1∣+2∣t2∣f(t) = |t_1| + 2|t_2|f(t)=∣t1​∣+2∣t2​∣ (four quadrant pieces), started at the minimizer x0=0x_0 = 0x0​=0 with null steps, one can choose gf(xk+1)=−gf(xk)g_f(x_{k+1}) = -g_f(x_k)gf​(xk+1​)=−gf​(xk​) at every step, and 0∉Gf0 \notin G_f0∈/Gf​ keeps rk≠0r_k \neq 0rk​=0. A formalization under which no infinite run exists would make every theorem vacuous. The run predicate also forbids the degenerate reading hk+1<0h_{k+1} < 0hk+1​<0, under which the monotonicity condition (a) would hold vacuously on an empty segment.
  • Needed infrastructure: widths of compact convex sets under linear maps (via the singular values of BBB), the effect of a rank-one dilation on widths, determinant bounds for products of dilations, and Gram-determinant continuity. The first three apply to any space-dilation method and are welcome as independent lemmas.

Selected references

  • N. Z. Shor, Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 3, Springer 1985, §3.7, pp. 77–85. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-82118-9
  • N. Z. Shor, N. G. Zhurbenko, A minimization method using the operation of space dilation in the direction of the difference of two successive gradients, Kibernetika (Kiev), no. 3, 51–59, 1971 (listed in the bibliography of Shor 1985; no online copy known).
  • N. Z. Shor, The analysis of convergence of a gradient type method with space dilation in the direction of the difference of two successive gradients, Kibernetika (Kiev), no. 4, 48–53, 1975 (listed in the bibliography of Shor 1985; no online copy known).
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Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions IV: Existence of the Central PathTextbook

Motivation

Interior-point methods solve linear programs by moving through the interior of the feasible region instead of along its edges, as the simplex method does. The methods used in practice are path-following methods: they track a curve, the central path, that runs through the interior of the feasible region and ends at an optimal solution. Before any such method can be analysed, the curve has to exist. This mission formalizes Chapter 17 of R. J. Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions (4th ed., Springer 2014), which defines the central path through the logarithmic barrier problem and proves that it exists exactly when the primal and the dual problem both have strictly positive feasible points.

The chapter's results have a short history. Barrier methods for nonlinear programming go back to Fiacco and McCormick (1968). Interest in interior-point methods for linear programming began with Karmarkar (1984), whose projective algorithm does not mention a central path; the connection between Karmarkar's method and the primal–dual central path was found by Megiddo (1989), with central points traced back to Huard (1967) and an extended study of the path by Bayer and Lagarias (1989). The chapter is the textbook entry point to this line of work and the foundation for the path-following algorithm of Chapter 18.

Setting

Let AAA be a real m×nm \times nm×n matrix, b∈Rmb \in \mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm and c∈Rnc \in \mathbb{R}^nc∈Rn. The primal linear program is to maximize cTxc^T xcTx subject to Ax≤bAx \le bAx≤b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0; its dual is to minimize bTyb^T ybTy subject to ATy≥cA^T y \ge cATy≥c, y≥0y \ge 0y≥0. With slack variables w∈Rmw \in \mathbb{R}^mw∈Rm and z∈Rnz \in \mathbb{R}^nz∈Rn they read (17.1)

Ax+w=b, x,w≥0andATy−z=c, y,z≥0.Ax + w = b,\ x, w \ge 0 \qquad\text{and}\qquad A^T y - z = c,\ y, z \ge 0.Ax+w=b, x,w≥0andATy−z=c, y,z≥0.

For a vector ξ\xiξ, ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0 means that every component is strictly positive. The primal feasible region has nonempty interior when some (xˉ,wˉ)(\bar x, \bar w)(xˉ,wˉ) satisfies Axˉ+wˉ=bA\bar x + \bar w = bAxˉ+wˉ=b with xˉ>0\bar x > 0xˉ>0, wˉ>0\bar w > 0wˉ>0; the dual feasible region has nonempty interior when some (yˉ,zˉ)(\bar y, \bar z)(yˉ​,zˉ) satisfies ATyˉ−zˉ=cA^T \bar y - \bar z = cATyˉ​−zˉ=c with yˉ>0\bar y > 0yˉ​>0, zˉ>0\bar z > 0zˉ>0.

For a parameter μ>0\mu > 0μ>0, the barrier function (17.7) is

f(x,w)=cTx+μ∑j=1nlog⁡xj+μ∑i=1mlog⁡wi,f(x, w) = c^T x + \mu \sum_{j=1}^n \log x_j + \mu \sum_{i=1}^m \log w_i ,f(x,w)=cTx+μj=1∑n​logxj​+μi=1∑m​logwi​,

and the barrier problem (17.2) is to maximize f(x,w)f(x, w)f(x,w) subject to Ax+w=bAx + w = bAx+w=b, over the domain x>0x > 0x>0, w>0w > 0w>0 where the logarithms are finite. A solution of the barrier problem is a point of that domain at which fff attains its maximum over the domain.

Writing X,Z,Y,WX, Z, Y, WX,Z,Y,W for the diagonal matrices carrying x,z,y,wx, z, y, wx,z,y,w and eee for the all-ones vector, the primal–dual central-path system (17.6) is

Ax+w=b,ATy−z=c,XZe=μe,YWe=μe,Ax + w = b, \qquad A^T y - z = c, \qquad XZe = \mu e, \qquad YWe = \mu e,Ax+w=b,ATy−z=c,XZe=μe,YWe=μe,

with x,w,y,z>0x, w, y, z > 0x,w,y,z>0. The last two equations say xjzj=μx_j z_j = \muxj​zj​=μ and yiwi=μy_i w_i = \muyi​wi​=μ for all jjj and iii. The set of its solutions (xμ,wμ,yμ,zμ)(x_\mu, w_\mu, y_\mu, z_\mu)(xμ​,wμ​,yμ​,zμ​), μ>0\mu > 0μ>0, is the primal–dual central path.

The chapter also uses one fact from nonlinear programming: for the problem "maximize f(x)f(x)f(x) subject to gi(x)=0g_i(x) = 0gi​(x)=0, i=1,…,mi = 1, \dots, mi=1,…,m", a critical point is a feasible x∗x^*x∗ with ∇f(x∗)=∑iyi∇gi(x∗)\nabla f(x^*) = \sum_i y_i \nabla g_i(x^*)∇f(x∗)=∑i​yi​∇gi​(x∗) for some Lagrange multipliers yiy_iyi​ (17.3), and Hf(x∗)H_f(x^*)Hf​(x∗) is the Hessian of fff at x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 17.2 (p. 265)

For each fixed μ>0\mu > 0μ>0,

∃ (x,w) solving the barrier problem  ⟺  (∃ xˉ,wˉ>0:Axˉ+wˉ=b)∧(∃ yˉ,zˉ>0:ATyˉ−zˉ=c).\exists\, (x, w) \text{ solving the barrier problem} \iff \big(\exists\, \bar x, \bar w > 0 : A\bar x + \bar w = b\big) \wedge \big(\exists\, \bar y, \bar z > 0 : A^T\bar y - \bar z = c\big).∃(x,w) solving the barrier problem⟺(∃xˉ,wˉ>0:Axˉ+wˉ=b)∧(∃yˉ​,zˉ>0:ATyˉ​−zˉ=c).

Both directions are part of the goal. The statement fixes no constants and no rate; it asserts only when the barrier problem is solvable.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 17.1 (p. 261), second-order sufficiency under linear constraints: if the constraints are linear, a critical point x∗x^*x∗ with ξTHf(x∗)ξ<0\xi^T H_f(x^*)\xi < 0ξTHf​(x∗)ξ<0 for every ξ≠0\xi \ne 0ξ=0 satisfying ξT∇gi(x∗)=0\xi^T \nabla g_i(x^*) = 0ξT∇gi​(x∗)=0 for all iii is a local maximum on the feasible set.
  2. Exercise 10.7 (p. 150): if the primal is feasible and its feasible set {x:Ax≤b, x≥0}\{x : Ax \le b,\ x \ge 0\}{x:Ax≤b, x≥0} is bounded, then there are y>0y > 0y>0, z>0z > 0z>0 with ATy−z=cA^T y - z = cATy−z=c.
  3. Corollary 17.3 (p. 266): if the primal feasible set (or the dual feasible set) has nonempty interior and is bounded, then for each μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 the system (17.6) has exactly one solution with x,w,y,z>0x, w, y, z > 0x,w,y,z>0.

The corollary is stronger than the goal in one direction (it adds uniqueness and the dual variables) and weaker in another (it assumes boundedness).

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 17.2 gives an exact criterion for the barrier problem to be solvable for a fixed μ\muμ, and Corollary 17.3 turns it into the statement that the central path is a well-defined curve μ↦(xμ,wμ,yμ,zμ)\mu \mapsto (x_\mu, w_\mu, y_\mu, z_\mu)μ↦(xμ​,wμ​,yμ​,zμ​) for all μ>0\mu > 0μ>0. Every path-following method, including the one analysed in Chapter 18 of the same book, targets points on this curve; without existence and uniqueness the "target" of an iteration is undefined. The system (17.6) is also the starting point of the primal–dual Newton step.

Formalizing it. These results are classical and proved in the book; none is formalized in the Ax≤bAx \le bAx≤b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 form used here. The platform has the converse fact in the standard form Ax=bAx = bAx=b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 (a solution of the central-path conditions minimizes the barrier, Introduction to Linear Optimization), but not existence. A formal proof of Theorem 17.2 and Corollary 17.3 produces a reusable existence theorem for the central path that downstream missions on path-following and self-dual methods can import.

Difficulty

The "if" direction of Theorem 17.2 is an existence claim on a set that is neither closed nor bounded: the domain x>0x > 0x>0, w>0w > 0w>0 is open, and the feasible region itself may be unbounded, so the obvious appeal to "a continuous function on a compact set attains its maximum" does not apply directly. The example "maximize 000 subject to x≥0x \ge 0x≥0" (p. 264), whose barrier μlog⁡x\mu \log xμlogx has no maximum, shows that the dual hypothesis cannot be dropped. The "only if" direction, which the book calls trivial and does not prove, needs first-order conditions at a maximizer over a relatively open set.

Theorem 17.1 needs a second-order Taylor expansion with a remainder that is o(∥ξ∥2)o(\|\xi\|^2)o(∥ξ∥2) uniformly along the constraint subspace, not along individual lines. Exercise 10.7 is a theorem of the alternative and is not a consequence of weak duality alone. Uniqueness in Corollary 17.3 requires the positivity of the solution: the equations xjzj=μx_j z_j = \muxj​zj​=μ, yiwi=μy_i w_i = \muyi​wi​=μ admit sign-flipped solutions.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and Fin m → ℝ; AAA is a Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. The book's primal–dual pair in Ax≤bAx \le bAx≤b, x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 form with slacks is used throughout; there are no explicit constants in this chapter.

Conventions committed to:

  • "Nonempty interior" means a feasible point with every component strictly positive, as the proof of Theorem 17.2 says. The topological interior of {(x,w):Ax+w=b, x,w≥0}\{(x, w) : Ax + w = b,\ x, w \ge 0\}{(x,w):Ax+w=b, x,w≥0} in Rn+m\mathbb{R}^{n+m}Rn+m is empty whenever m≥1m \ge 1m≥1; reading the theorem that way would make its right-hand side always false for m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, and that reading is ruled out.
  • The barrier problem is posed over x>0x > 0x>0, w>0w > 0w>0 explicitly; Real.log returns 000 at nonpositive arguments and is never evaluated there.
  • Solutions of (17.6) are required to be strictly positive, as in Exercise 17.3 (p. 267).
  • "Bounded" is Bornology.IsBounded of the feasible set in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn (resp. Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm).
  • In Theorem 17.1 the constraints are Gx=βGx = \betaGx=β; fff is differentiable near x∗x^*x∗ with derivative differentiable at x∗x^*x∗, and ξTHf(x∗)ξ\xi^T H_f(x^*) \xiξTHf​(x∗)ξ is the second Fréchet derivative applied to (ξ,ξ)(\xi, \xi)(ξ,ξ). The local maximum is relative to the feasible set.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: attainment of maxima on compact sets (IsCompact.exists_isMaxOn in Mathlib), first-order conditions on relatively open sets, a theorem of the alternative for Exercise 10.7, and concavity facts about the logarithm. A second-order sufficient condition under affine constraints is not in Mathlib and is reusable beyond linear programming. Proofs of any milestone, including the "only if" half of the goal separately, are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • R. J. Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions, 4th ed., International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 196, Springer, 2014, Chapter 17 and Exercise 10.7. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7630-6
  • A. V. Fiacco and G. P. McCormick, Nonlinear Programming: Sequential Unconstrained Minimization Techniques, Wiley, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971316
  • N. Karmarkar, A new polynomial-time algorithm for linear programming, Combinatorica 4 (1984), 373–395. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579150
  • N. Megiddo, Pathways to the optimal set in linear programming, in Progress in Mathematical Programming, Springer, 1989, 131–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-9617-8_8
  • D. A. Bayer and J. C. Lagarias, The nonlinear geometry of linear programming I, II, Transactions of the AMS 314 (1989), 499–526 and 527–581. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1989-1005525-6
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Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions V: Convergence Rates of the Path-Following MethodTextbook

Motivation

Interior-point methods are, together with the simplex method, the standard algorithms for linear programming, and the primal–dual path-following method is the form in which they are implemented in most solvers. Unlike the simplex method, it is a one-phase method: it can start from any point whose primal and dual variables are strictly positive, feasible or not, and drives infeasibility and complementarity to zero simultaneously. The question every user of such a method eventually asks is how fast these three measures of non-optimality decrease.

Chapter 18 of R. J. Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions (4th ed., Springer 2014, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4614-7630-6) defines the method from scratch (Fig. 18.1, p. 273) and proves a rate statement, Theorem 18.1 (pp. 277–279): as long as the step lengths stay bounded below and the iterates stay bounded, the primal and dual infeasibilities decay geometrically, and so does the complementarity, at a slower rate. This mission formalizes that theorem and the one-step identities and estimates it is built from. It is the fifth mission of a series on the book; the missions are independent of each other.

Setting

Let AAA be a real m×nm \times nm×n matrix, b∈Rmb \in \mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc \in \mathbb{R}^nc∈Rn. The primal problem is to maximize cTxc^TxcTx subject to Ax+w=bAx + w = bAx+w=b, x,w≥0x, w \ge 0x,w≥0; the dual is to minimize bTyb^TybTy subject to ATy−z=cA^Ty - z = cATy−z=c, y,z≥0y, z \ge 0y,z≥0. A primal–dual point is a quadruple (x,w,y,z)(x, w, y, z)(x,w,y,z) with x,z∈Rnx, z \in \mathbb{R}^nx,z∈Rn, w,y∈Rmw, y \in \mathbb{R}^mw,y∈Rm; it is strictly positive, (x,w,y,z)>0(x, w, y, z) > 0(x,w,y,z)>0, if every component is. Write X,W,Y,ZX, W, Y, ZX,W,Y,Z for the diagonal matrices of x,w,y,zx, w, y, zx,w,y,z and eee for the all-ones vector. The norms are ∥v∥1=∑j∣vj∣\|v\|_1 = \sum_j |v_j|∥v∥1​=∑j​∣vj​∣ and ∥v∥∞=max⁡j∣vj∣\|v\|_\infty = \max_j |v_j|∥v∥∞​=maxj​∣vj​∣.

At a point (x,w,y,z)(x, w, y, z)(x,w,y,z) the three measures of progress are the primal infeasibility ρ=b−Ax−w\rho = b - Ax - wρ=b−Ax−w, the dual infeasibility σ=c−ATy+z\sigma = c - A^Ty + zσ=c−ATy+z, and the complementarity γ=zTx+yTw\gamma = z^Tx + y^Twγ=zTx+yTw. Fix parameters 0<δ<10 < \delta < 10<δ<1 and 0<r<10 < r < 10<r<1. One iteration of the method, from a strictly positive point, sets μ=δγ/(n+m)\mu = \delta\gamma/(n+m)μ=δγ/(n+m), takes any solution (Δx,Δw,Δy,Δz)(\Delta x, \Delta w, \Delta y, \Delta z)(Δx,Δw,Δy,Δz) of the Newton system

AΔx+Δw=ρ,ATΔy−Δz=σ,ZΔx+XΔz=μe−XZe,WΔy+YΔw=μe−YWe,A\Delta x + \Delta w = \rho, \quad A^T\Delta y - \Delta z = \sigma, \quad Z\Delta x + X\Delta z = \mu e - XZe, \quad W\Delta y + Y\Delta w = \mu e - YWe,AΔx+Δw=ρ,ATΔy−Δz=σ,ZΔx+XΔz=μe−XZe,WΔy+YΔw=μe−YWe,

computes the step length

θ=r(max⁡i,j{∣Δxjxj∣,∣Δwiwi∣,∣Δyiyi∣,∣Δzjzj∣})−1∧1(18.7)\theta = r\left(\max_{i,j}\left\{\left|\tfrac{\Delta x_j}{x_j}\right|, \left|\tfrac{\Delta w_i}{w_i}\right|, \left|\tfrac{\Delta y_i}{y_i}\right|, \left|\tfrac{\Delta z_j}{z_j}\right|\right\}\right)^{-1} \wedge 1 \qquad (18.7)θ=r(i,jmax​{​xj​Δxj​​​,​wi​Δwi​​​,​yi​Δyi​​​,​zj​Δzj​​​})−1∧1(18.7)

(with θ=1\theta = 1θ=1 when all ratios vanish), and moves to (x+θΔx,w+θΔw,y+θΔy,z+θΔz)(x + \theta\Delta x, w + \theta\Delta w, y + \theta\Delta y, z + \theta\Delta z)(x+θΔx,w+θΔw,y+θΔy,z+θΔz). This is Fig. 18.1 with the shorter step (18.7) the book adopts for its analysis. Along a sequence of iterates, superscripts (k)^{(k)}(k) denote the quantities at the kkk-th iterate, and θ(k)\theta^{(k)}θ(k) is the step length computed there.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 18.1 with the explicit constant

If t>0t > 0t>0, MMM is real, and for all k≤Kk \le Kk≤K one has θ(k)≥t\theta^{(k)} \ge tθ(k)≥t, ∥x(k)∥∞≤M\|x^{(k)}\|_\infty \le M∥x(k)∥∞​≤M, ∥y(k)∥∞≤M\|y^{(k)}\|_\infty \le M∥y(k)∥∞​≤M, then for all k≤Kk \le Kk≤K, with t~=t(1−δ)\tilde t = t(1-\delta)t~=t(1−δ),

∥ρ(k)∥1≤(1−t)k∥ρ(0)∥1,∥σ(k)∥1≤(1−t)k∥σ(0)∥1,γ(k)≤(1−t~)k(γ(0)+M(∥ρ(0)∥1+∥σ(0)∥1)δt).\|\rho^{(k)}\|_1 \le (1-t)^k\|\rho^{(0)}\|_1, \qquad \|\sigma^{(k)}\|_1 \le (1-t)^k\|\sigma^{(0)}\|_1, \qquad \gamma^{(k)} \le (1-\tilde t)^k \left(\gamma^{(0)} + \frac{M(\|\rho^{(0)}\|_1 + \|\sigma^{(0)}\|_1)}{\delta t}\right).∥ρ(k)∥1​≤(1−t)k∥ρ(0)∥1​,∥σ(k)∥1​≤(1−t)k∥σ(0)∥1​,γ(k)≤(1−t~)k(γ(0)+δtM(∥ρ(0)∥1​+∥σ(0)∥1​)​).

Milestones

The one-step identities for the infeasibilities, ρ~=(1−θ)ρ\tilde\rho = (1-\theta)\rhoρ~​=(1−θ)ρ (18.8) and σ~=(1−θ)σ\tilde\sigma = (1-\theta)\sigmaσ~=(1−θ)σ (18.9); the one-step complementarity estimate

γ~≤(1−(1−δ)θ)γ+M∥ρ∥1+M∥σ∥1(18.10)\tilde\gamma \le (1 - (1-\delta)\theta)\gamma + M\|\rho\|_1 + M\|\sigma\|_1 \qquad (18.10)γ~​≤(1−(1−δ)θ)γ+M∥ρ∥1​+M∥σ∥1​(18.10)

under ∥x∥∞,∥y∥∞≤M\|x\|_\infty, \|y\|_\infty \le M∥x∥∞​,∥y∥∞​≤M; and the recursion γ(k)≤(1−t~)γ(k−1)+M(1−t)k−1(∥ρ(0)∥1+∥σ(0)∥1)\gamma^{(k)} \le (1-\tilde t)\gamma^{(k-1)} + M(1-t)^{k-1}(\|\rho^{(0)}\|_1 + \|\sigma^{(0)}\|_1)γ(k)≤(1−t~)γ(k−1)+M(1−t)k−1(∥ρ(0)∥1​+∥σ(0)∥1​) (18.11). Two unnumbered statements complete the picture: every iteration has 0<θ≤10 < \theta \le 10<θ≤1 and keeps the point strictly positive, and at any strictly positive point the duality gap satisfies ∣bTy−cTx∣≤γ+∥σ∥1∥x∥∞+∥ρ∥1∥y∥∞|b^Ty - c^Tx| \le \gamma + \|\sigma\|_1\|x\|_\infty + \|\rho\|_1\|y\|_\infty∣bTy−cTx∣≤γ+∥σ∥1​∥x∥∞​+∥ρ∥1​∥y∥∞​ (§18.5.3).

Significance

Theorem 18.1 separates the convergence question for the path-following method into two parts: a rate statement that holds whenever steps stay long and iterates stay bounded, and the remaining question of when those two conditions hold. It also explains an effect seen in practice: the infeasibilities fall by the factor 1−t1 - t1−t per iteration while the complementarity, and hence (by the duality-gap estimate) the gap bTy−cTxb^Ty - c^TxbTy−cTx, falls only by 1−t~1 - \tilde t1−t~. The book stresses that the result is partial, because it does not show that the step lengths remain bounded away from zero; that requires modifications of the method and of the starting point that the book does not carry out.

All statements here are proved in the book. The mission's contribution is a machine-checked version, with the constant of the complementarity bound made explicit. Neither Mathlib nor the platform contains a formal proof of this theorem or a formalization of the infeasible-start primal–dual iteration it concerns; the platform's existing path-following result concerns a different, feasible-start short-step method in equality form.

Difficulty

The infeasibility identities are linear and follow from the first two Newton equations. The complementarity is where the Newton system linearizes a bilinear equation, so the new complementarity contains a second-order term θ2(ΔyTρ−σTΔx)\theta^2(\Delta y^T\rho - \sigma^T\Delta x)θ2(ΔyTρ−σTΔx) that has no sign. Bounding it requires relating the size of the step θΔ\theta\DeltaθΔ to the size of the current iterate through the specific form of the step-length rule (18.7); the rule (18.6) of Fig. 18.1, with signed ratios, does not give such a bound. The multi-step estimate then couples two geometric sequences with different rates, and keeping the constant independent of the horizon KKK is what makes the statement non-trivial.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and Fin m → ℝ, AAA is a Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, and points and step directions are a structure PDPoint m n with fields x w y z. The sup-norm is ⨆ j, |v j| (the maximum; 0 for an empty vector). The step length is written with the explicit case θ=1\theta = 1θ=1 when all ratios vanish, since Lean's r / 0 = 0 would otherwise give θ=0\theta = 0θ=0. An iteration is a relation between the current point, a step direction and the next point: the current point is strictly positive, the direction is some solution of the Newton system (uniqueness, which the book asserts under a full-rank assumption, is not assumed), and the next point is current + θ⋅+\ \theta \cdot+ θ⋅ direction. The hypotheses 0<δ<10 < \delta < 10<δ<1, 0<r<10 < r < 10<r<1 (pp. 272–273) are stated in every theorem; MMM is an arbitrary real number and KKK a natural number. As in the book, the hypotheses of Theorem 18.1 range over k≤Kk \le Kk≤K, so the iteration from index KKK is part of the data.

Explicit constants. The book's Theorem 18.1 asserts only "there exists a constant Mˉ<∞\bar M < \inftyMˉ<∞". Because KKK is fixed, that existential is satisfied trivially by max⁡k≤Kγ(k)/(1−t~)k\max_{k \le K}\gamma^{(k)}/(1-\tilde t)^kmaxk≤K​γ(k)/(1−t~)k, and a statement with ∃Mˉ\exists \bar M∃Mˉ would be empty. The goal therefore uses the constant the book's proof establishes (p. 279, last display): Mˉ=γ(0)+M(∥ρ(0)∥1+∥σ(0)∥1)/(δt)\bar M = \gamma^{(0)} + M(\|\rho^{(0)}\|_1 + \|\sigma^{(0)}\|_1)/(\delta t)Mˉ=γ(0)+M(∥ρ(0)∥1​+∥σ(0)∥1​)/(δt). Eq. (18.11) is stated with the book's M~=M(∥ρ(0)∥1+∥σ(0)∥1)\tilde M = M(\|\rho^{(0)}\|_1 + \|\sigma^{(0)}\|_1)M~=M(∥ρ(0)∥1​+∥σ(0)∥1​) written out.

The formalization needs only finite sums, dot products and matrix–vector products from Mathlib; the definitions of the iteration are reusable for other analyses of the same method (Chapters 19–22 of the book). Contributions are welcome for each milestone separately.

Selected references

  • R. J. Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions, 4th ed., International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 196, Springer, 2014, Chapter 18, pp. 269–283. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-7630-6
  • S. J. Wright, Primal-Dual Interior-Point Methods, SIAM, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971453
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Elements of Queueing Theory I: The Swiss Army Formula of Palm CalculusTextbook

The Swiss Army Formula of Palm Calculus

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds the calculus that the rest of the book runs on. Its subject is the relation between two ways of looking at the same stationary system: from a clock fixed in time, and from a customer arriving into it. The two are not the same — the interval a random instant falls into is longer than a typical interval, a fact every queueing student meets as the inspection paradox — and the object that makes the difference precise is the Palm probability P⁰_N.

The chapter defines P⁰_N by the Matthes definition in terms of counting,

λ t P⁰_N(A) = E[ Σ_{n ∈ ℤ} 1_A(θ_{T_n}) 1_{(0,t]}(T_n) ],                          (1.2.1)

and everything else is a theorem about it. That ordering is deliberate here too: P⁰_N is carried in the formalization as a predicate satisfying (1.2.1), not as a measure constructed to make Mecke's formula true. If it were the latter, Mecke's formula would be a definition and the inversion formula and the goal theorem would inherit that emptiness.

From (1.2.1) the chapter derives, in order: that P⁰_N is invariant under the point shift (1.2.16); Mecke's formula (1.2.17), which the literature also knows as the generalized Campbell formula; the inversion formula of Ryll-Nardzewski and Slivnyak (1.2.25), which runs back from P⁰_N to P; the mean-value formulas (1.3.2)–(1.3.3); the Neveu exchange formula (1.3.4), which relates two point processes stationary for the same flow; and the Miyazawa rate conservation principle (1.3.10), which balances the drift of a process between its jumps against the rate at which it jumps.

The goal

§1.3.7 then collects all of them into one identity. Its name is the book's own:

Depending on which blade is selected, a Swiss army knife transforms itself into various useful tools. The formula obtained in this subsection is called the Swiss army formula of Palm calculus because it contains the main formulas of this theory, as well as some new ones.

Theorem 1.3.1 (p.29). For arrivals {T_n} with counting measure A and intensity λ_A, departures {τ_n} with counting measure D — not assumed ordered — sojourn times W_n = τ_n − T_n ≥ 0 forming a sequence of marks of A, the number in system {X(t)} with X(b) − X(a) = A((a,b]) − D((a,b]), a non-decreasing corlol integrator {B(t)} and a non-negative process {Z(t)}, all compatible with a measurable flow under which P is invariant:

λ_A E⁰_A [ ∫_(0,W_0] Z(s) dB(s) ] = (1/t) E [ ∫_(0,t] X(s−) Z(s) dB(s) ].              (1.3.28)

Selecting the blade Z ≡ 1, B(t) = t turns it into λ_A E⁰_A[W_0] = E[X(0)] — Little's law, here in its full stationary-ergodic form rather than as a deterministic sample-path identity. Other choices give the inversion formula, the Miyazawa conservation principle and the rate conservation law.

The local meaning of P⁰_N

One milestone stands slightly apart. Theorem 1.5.1 (p.45) is what licenses the whole reading of P⁰_N as "what an arriving customer sees":

lim_{t→0} sup_{A ∈ F} | P⁰_N(A) − P(θ_{T_1} ∈ A | T_1 ≤ t) | = 0.                       (1.5.3)

The supremum is inside the limit. The convergence is uniform over every measurable event, which is what Dobrushin's estimate of §1.5.1 buys and what a pointwise limit would not give.

What this mission provides

Nothing in this chapter exists on the platform or in Mathlib: not stationary marked point processes, not Palm probability, not the Campbell measure. Four of the five missions in this series import the vocabulary built here, and the two definition items — the substrate of §§1.1–1.2 and the setting of §1.3.7 — are as much of the deliverable as the theorems are.

Formalization scope

  • The flow {θ_t} is a one-parameter group with (t, ω) ↦ θ_t ω jointly measurable (p.5 (a)); a point process is its strictly increasing points {T_n}_{n ∈ ℤ} with T_0 ≤ 0 < T_1, infinitely many on each side (Hypothesis 1.1.1), with finite non-null intensity λ = E[N((0,1])].
  • P⁰_N is characterized by (1.2.1) for every t > 0, which determines it uniquely; nothing is axiomatized. A formalization that introduced P⁰_N as any measure satisfying Mecke's formula would make the milestones and the goal trivial and is ruled out.
  • Every "for all non-negative measurable" formula (Mecke, inversion, mean-value, Neveu, Wald, the goal) is stated in [0, ∞] with lower Lebesgue integrals, for all such functions, not only bounded or integrable ones.
  • Three hypotheses the book uses without listing them are explicit: the Swiss army formula assumes the integrator {B(t)} is θ_t-compatible (the proof uses it, and without it the identity fails); it is stated for t > 0, the only values at which 1/t and (0, t] give it content; and the Miyazawa principle assumes Y'(0) ∈ L¹(P), which its E[Y'(0)] presupposes.
  • Theorem 1.5.1 keeps the supremum over all events inside the limit (one δ for every A).
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Elements of Queueing Theory Ib: Ergodicity and Stochastic IntensityTextbook

Ergodicity and Stochastic Intensity

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory has two halves. The first builds Palm calculus from the Matthes definition of P⁰_N and reaches the Swiss army formula. This mission is the second: §§1.6, 1.8 and 1.9, which supply the two things the rest of the book runs on.

Ergodic theory, quoted

§1.6 states, in its own words, "the ergodic theory results to be used later in this book". Five of them, and the book proves none: Birkhoff's pointwise ergodic theorem in discrete (Theorem 1.6.1) and continuous time (Theorem 1.6.4), Kingman's sub-additive ergodic theorem (Theorem 1.6.2), and the extremal characterizations of ergodicity in both settings (Theorems 1.6.3 and 1.6.5) — ergodicity is exactly the impossibility of splitting an invariant probability into two distinct ones.

They are quoted, but they are not decoration. Kingman's theorem is what produces the asymptotic growth rates of Theorem 2.11.2 and the constant γ(c) on which the saturation rule rests. Birkhoff's theorem is what makes the time average in PASTA's (3.3.2) a well-defined object, and what the fluid Loynes theorem invokes for lim_{u→−∞}(A_{u,0} − C_{u,0}) = −∞.

None of the three analytic ones exists in Mathlib. Analysis/InnerProductSpace/MeanErgodic is the mean (von Neumann, L²) theorem, not almost-everywhere convergence, and there is no sub-additive ergodic theorem at all. The platform has neither.

Predictability, and why PASTA can be stated

§1.8 introduces the stochastic intensity: a point process N admits the (P, F_t)-intensity {λ(t)} when E[N(a,b] 1_A] = E[(∫_a^b λ(t)dt) 1_A] for A ∈ F_a. Around it sits the notion of a predictable process — one measurable with respect to the strict past.

Theorem 1.8.1 is the structural fact that makes predictability usable. For the internal history of a marked point process, every predictable process has the concrete form

Z(t, ω) = v(t, θ_t ω),    v(t, ·) F_{0−}-measurable.                                   (1.8.1)

That is why mission IV can take this form as PASTA's hypothesis rather than constructing a predictable σ-field: Theorem 1.8.1 says nothing is lost.

The goal

Theorem 1.8.2 (p.61), §1.8.4, Watanabe's characterization of Poisson processes. For a history F_t = F_t^N ∨ G and a G-measurable, locally integrable {λ(t)}, if N admits the F_t-intensity {λ(t)} then N is a G-conditional Poisson process:

E[ e^{iuN(a,b]} | G ∨ F^N_a ] = exp{ (e^{iu} − 1) ∫_a^b λ(t) dt } .                    (1.8.12)

A stochastic intensity that carries no information beyond G forces the process to be Poisson conditionally on G, with the compensator as the parameter — and the conditional characteristic function is the exact Poisson one, not an approximation. With G trivial and λ constant this is the ordinary Poisson process, which is the equivalence Remark 3.3.1 of Chapter 3 invokes to explain the name PASTA. The book: "This result plays a role in queueing theory, especially for proving that some streams in a queueing network are or are not Poissonian."

Palm probability meets stochastic intensity

§1.9 asks whether the stochastic intensity is the same under P and under P⁰_N — whether the two probabilities describe the same dynamics. Theorem 1.9.1 says yes, on ℝ₊: the same process {λ(t)} serves both.

Theorem 1.9.2 is Papangelou's theorem, and it is the deepest statement of the section: N admits a stochastic intensity if and only if P⁰_N ≪ P on F_{0−}, and then λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ the Radon–Nikodým derivative. A dynamic property and a static one turn out to be the same thing.

Theorem 1.9.3 is Mecke's characterization: N is Poisson exactly when P ≡ P⁰_N on F_{0−}. The view from a point of the process and the view from a deterministic instant agree on the strict past precisely when the process has no memory. It follows in one line from the two theorems before it.

What this mission provides

Four of the five missions in this series import the Chapter 1 substrate; this one adds the two pieces they need from its second half — ergodic theory and the stochastic intensity. Nothing here is on the platform, and Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in this form, no stochastic intensity, no pointwise ergodic theorem and no Kingman.

Formalization scope

Every result is stated in the book's strength, with the book's standing definitions as binders. A discrete flow is a bijective, measurable, P⁰-preserving map (p.46); a continuous flow is jointly measurable in (t, ω) (p.3, clause (a)). A history compatible with the flow satisfies θ_t F_s = F_{s−t} (p.57), and an F_t-intensity is a non-negative, measurable, locally integrable, adapted process (p.58). The limits of Theorems 1.6.1, 1.6.2 and 1.6.4 are asserted to exist; Kingman's constant h̄ lies in ℝ ∪ {−∞} and is identified with inf_n (1/n) E⁰[h_n], the means being extended reals so that E⁰[h_n] = −∞ is not read as 0. Theorems 1.6.3, 1.6.5, 1.9.2 and 1.9.3 are equivalences, and Theorem 1.9.2 carries the closed form λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ = dP⁰_N/dP on F_{0−}. The goal's conclusion is the exact conditional characteristic function (1.8.12); a formalization that only asserted some conditional Poisson law, or conditioned on G alone, would not be this theorem.

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Elements of Queueing Theory II: The Loynes Stability Theorem and CouplingTextbook

The Loynes Stability Theorem and Coupling

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds a calculus for stationary queues. Chapter 2 asks the prior question: when is there a stationary queue at all?

The G/G/1/∞ queue is one server at unit rate, infinite waiting room, fed by a stationary marked point process {(T_n, σ_n)} — arrival epochs and required service times. Its workload W(t), the service still owed by the server, obeys Lindley's equation between arrivals:

W(t) = (W(T_n−) + σ_n − (t − T_n))⁺,    t ∈ [T_n, T_{n+1}).                          (2.1.6)

Nothing in that equation says a solution exists on the whole line, let alone a stationary one. The answer is a sharp criterion in the traffic intensity ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0].

The goal

Theorem 2.1.1 (p.80), which the book calls "the fundamental result of stability". Under ρ < 1 there is a unique finite workload process on all of ℝ, compatible with the flow, and it is given explicitly by the Loynes supremum

W(0) = sup_{n ≤ 0} ( T_n + Σ_{i=n}^{0} σ_i )⁺ ,                                      (2.1.12)

with W(T_n−) = 0 for infinitely many negative and infinitely many positive n (2.1.13). If ρ > 1 there is no finite stationary workload process at all.

Each half earns its place. The supremum is what "the Loynes construction" means: look back from the origin, take the work brought by customers n, …, 0 less the time −T_n since elapsed, and maximise over how far back you look. The ρ > 1 half is what turns ρ < 1 from a sufficient condition into a criterion. The critical case ρ = 1 is an explicit non-result in the book — there "may or may not" be a stationary workload — and is deliberately absent from the statement.

The route, and what it produces on the way

§2.2 proves the theorem by Loynes' monotone scheme on the Palm space, and two of its steps are worth stating in their own right.

Lemma 2.2.1 (p.87) is the uniqueness engine: a non-negative, a.s. finite Z with Z − Z∘θ ∈ L¹(P⁰) has E⁰[Z − Z∘θ] = 0. Applied to the difference of two stationary solutions, it forces that difference to be invariant, and ergodicity then forces it to be zero.

Theorem 2.2.1 (p.90) runs the argument backwards. Its section is titled "Queueing Proof of the Ergodic Theorem", and it is exactly that: the queueing construction yields the pointwise ergodic theorem, in the ratio form

lim_n ( Σ_{i=0}^n σ∘θ^{-i} ) / ( Σ_{i=0}^n τ∘θ^{-i} ) = E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ],    P⁰-a.s.

Mathlib has the mean (von Neumann) ergodic theorem and no pointwise one, so this is absent substrate rather than a restatement.

Three extensions

The multiserver queue (§2.3). With s servers and the least-loaded-server rule, the state is the ordered workload vector obeying the Kiefer–Wolfowitz recurrence, and the criterion becomes E⁰[σ] < s E⁰[τ] (Theorem 2.3.1, p.93). Here uniqueness fails: p.94 exhibits a two-point space with a whole interval of stationary solutions. What survives is that the solution set is bracketed — M_∞ is minimal, and V^∞_∞ is the largest finite solution (Theorem 2.3.2, p.95).

Coupling (§2.4). Theorem 2.4.1 (p.99) is what "reaches the stationary regime" means: if a sequence couples with a θ-compatible one, then the law of its whole shifted trajectory converges in variation to the stationary trajectory's. The proof is one inequality, |P̃_{X,k} − P̃_{Z,k}| ≤ P(N > k), and the finiteness of the coupling time.

The fluid queue (§2.7). Theorem 2.7.1 (p.131) replaces customers by two θ_t-compatible random measures, the arrivals A and the service capacity C, and recovers the Loynes supremum W(t) = sup_{u ≤ t}(A_{u,t} − C_{u,t}) under λ < µ — as the minimal solution, the book claiming no uniqueness here.

Formalization scope

  • ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0] takes values in [0, ∞], so an input with E⁰_A[σ_0] = ∞ has ρ = ∞ and falls under the non-existence half rather than being read as ρ = 0.
  • The explicit formulas are carried: the Loynes supremum (2.1.12) with the boundedness of its set as a conclusion, the construction points (2.1.13), the ratio limit E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.2.1, the threshold s E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.3.1, and the fluid supremum (2.7.7).
  • Identities between random variables hold almost surely, as in the book: the workload equations, (2.1.12)–(2.1.13), (2.7.7), and the solutions of (2.3.2). A statement "for every sample point" would be false, because on a null invariant set of sample paths no finite solution exists.
  • Uniqueness in Theorem 2.1.1 is among measurable, θ_t-compatible workload processes; maximality in Theorem 2.3.2 is among measurable finite solutions; the coupling time of Theorem 2.4.1 is a random variable. A formalization that dropped the explicit supremum, or the ρ > 1 half, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out.

What this mission provides

None of it is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, single_server_queueing_convergence_of_subcritical, presupposes a stationary workload and proves two-time finite-dimensional convergence to it; Theorem 2.1.1 constructs that workload, proves it unique, gives it in closed form, and adds the non-existence half. Different conclusion, different generality, different Mathlib revision.

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Elements of Queueing Theory III: Stationary Regimes of Stochastic RecurrencesTextbook

Stationary Regimes of Stochastic Recurrences

Background

Chapter 2 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory asks when a queue has a stationary regime. §§2.1–2.4 answer it for the single-server and multiserver queues by Loynes' monotone construction. §§2.5 and 2.11 answer it for the general object those constructions are instances of: a stochastic recurrence

W_{n+1} = h(W_n, ξ_n),

driven by a sequence {ξ_n} compatible with an ergodic shift θ. Two questions arise, and this mission is about both.

Exact sampling, and what "exact" means

§2.5.3 treats the finite-state case. An ergodic transition matrix on E = {1, …, r} has a stationary law π, and the classical way to sample it is to run the chain and wait. That gives a sample whose law converges to π and is never equal to it.

Coupling from the past (Propp and Wilson, 1996) does better. Run one chain from every state, all sharing a single array {ξ_k(i)} of i.i.d. uniforms indexed by time and current state, started further and further in the past. Once two chains meet they stay together, so eventually all r coalesce before time 0 — and Theorem 2.5.1 says the common value they reach has the distribution π exactly. Theorem 2.5.2 makes it practical: if the updating function preserves a partial order with a least and a greatest state, and a single uniform sequence drives every chain, the two extremal chains funnel all the others and their coalescence suffices.

Neither theorem is a statement about a program. Each says that a random variable is almost surely finite, and that another has a distribution equal to π.

Renovating events: sufficient, and then necessary

§2.5.4 treats the general case, through Borovkov's idea. An event A_n is renovating of length m when, on it, W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}) — the sequence's value m steps ahead forgets where it came from. Theorem 2.5.3 turns a condition on how often renovating events occur into the existence of a finite stationary solution Z with Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ), and into strong backwards coupling: W_n ∘ θ^{-n} is not merely convergent to Z but equal to it after a finite random index.

Corollary 2.5.1 makes the limit independent of the initial condition — one stationary regime, reached from every starting point. Theorem 2.5.4 is the converse: for ℝ₊^K-valued recurrences with a constant initial condition, strong backwards coupling produces renovating events. So the method characterises stability rather than merely detecting it.

The saturation rule

§2.11 treats the multidimensional case, where the state is a vector and the natural models are monotone and homogeneous. Theorem 2.11.1, due to Crandall and Tartar, is the key that unlocks it: under homogeneity, monotone and non-expansive are the same property. That is what puts these models within reach of Kingman's subadditive ergodic theorem, and Theorem 2.11.2 collects the payoff — asymptotic growth rates γ̄ and γ_ exist, both almost surely and in L¹, and do not depend on the initial condition.

The goal

Queueing folklore has a rule of thumb for the stability of an open network: saturate the queues fed by the external stream, measure the departure intensity µ of the saturated system, and declare the network stable when λ < µ. The book is careful that this saturation rule "does not hold for all systems".

Theorem 2.11.3 (p.166), "the main result on the stability region", proves it for Monotone-Homogeneous-Separable networks:

If lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s., then λ γ(0) ≥ 1.    If λ γ(0) > 1, then lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s.

Here γ(c) is the growth rate of the network fed by the scaled process cN, so c = 0 places every arrival at the origin: γ(0) is exactly the saturated system's rate, and µ = γ(0)⁻¹.

Two implications, with a gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 that the book leaves open — as it leaves open the critical case ρ = 1 of Loynes' theorem. Closing it would assert more than is proved.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. There is no coupling from the past, no theory of renovating events, and no Crandall–Tartar theorem. Order/Hom/* has monotone maps and Topology/MetricSpace/* has LipschitzWith 1, which is the right ambient notion for non-expansiveness in the sup-norm, but the equivalence between them under homogeneity is absent.

Formalization scope

  • The standing assumptions of §2.5.1 (p.104) are part of every §2.5.4 statement: (P⁰, θ) is ergodic and {ξ_n} is compatible with θ. The relation Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ) holds P⁰-a.s.
  • Theorem 2.5.4 is stated for {W_n^{[C]}}, the sequence its proof on p.119 builds the renovating events for. The page prints {W_n^{[0]}} in the conclusion, and that version is false. Corollary 2.5.1 uses the renovating condition of (2.5.14), W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}), where the page prints W_n.
  • Theorem 2.11.2 carries all four limits, a.s. and in expectation, for every integrable ℝ^K-valued random initial condition Y, under the book's linear lower bound E[X_n^{[0]}] > −Cn.
  • The goal is stated on the Palm space of a stationary ergodic marked point process: T_0 = 0, T_n ∘ θ = T_{n+1} − T_1, ξ_n ∘ θ = ξ_{n+1}, E⁰τ_n = λ^{-1}, E⁰Z_n < ∞. The map X satisfies (2.11.16) (it depends only on the points and marks in the index window) and the four framework assumptions for every point process. γ(0) is the a.s. limit of Z_{[-n,-1]}(0·N)/n. Dropping the marks would reduce the theorem to deterministic service, and dropping the link between the points and θ makes the second implication false. Neither is done.
  • Stating only one of the goal's two implications, or collapsing them into an equivalence, would be a different theorem. Both implications are stated, with the gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 left open.
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Elements of Queueing Theory IV: PASTA and the Formulas of Palm CalculusTextbook

PASTA and the Formulas of Palm Calculus

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds Palm calculus. Chapter 2 settles when a queue has a stationary regime. Chapter 3 is called simply Formulas, and it is what the first two chapters were for: it computes.

The pattern is always the same. A quantity of interest is observed two ways — from a clock fixed in time, and from an arriving customer — and Palm calculus converts between them. Little's law, the Pollaczek–Khinchin formula and the rate conservation principle are all instances.

The goal

Theorem 3.3.1 (p.211) is the one that says when the two views coincide.

This classical result of queueing theory states, in rough terms, that if the arrival point process is Poisson, operational characteristics of the system computed just before arrival times and at arbitrary times are the same (Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages). Some care must be exercised in the application of this principle, and we now give a precise statement, in the θ_t-framework.

E⁰_A[f(Z(0))] = E[f(Z(0))]                                                            (3.3.1)

for every F_t-predictable, flow-compatible {Z(t)} and every non-negative measurable f, whenever A admits the constant F_t-intensity λ; and, under ergodicity,

lim_N (1/N) Σ_{n=1}^N f(Z(T_n)) = lim_T (1/T) ∫_0^T f(Z(s)) ds .                       (3.3.2)

The "some care" is the word predictable. PASTA is false without it: an arrival that changes the state it then observes does not see the time average, and that is exactly what predictability — measurability for the F_t-predictable σ-field, generated by the sets (a,b] × A with A ∈ F_a — rules out.

The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, not "A is Poisson". By Watanabe's theorem the two are equivalent, but that equivalence is a remark on the page and not part of this theorem.

Why it earns its place: Pollaczek–Khinchin

§3.4 derives formulas from conservation equations. Applying the rate conservation principle of Chapter 1 to Y(t) = e^{iuW(t)} in a GI/GI/1/∞ queue gives Takács' formula

iu E[e^{iuW(0)}] = λ E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] (E[e^{iuσ_0}] − 1) + iu(1 − ρ) ,                (3.4.44)

an identity between a stationary expectation and a Palm expectation of the workload just before an arrival. One substitution turns it into a closed form — and that substitution is PASTA. When the arrivals are Poisson, E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] = E[e^{iuW(0)}], and

E[e^{iuW(0)}] = iu(1 − ρ) / ( iu − λ(Ψ_σ(u) − 1) ) ,                                   (3.4.45)

the Pollaczek–Khinchin characteristic function formula. The most quoted formula in single-server queueing theory is one application of this mission's goal theorem.

The rest of the chapter

§3.1 carries Little's formula to fluid queues. Lemma 3.1.1 is the set identity that turns the fluid workload into an integral against the arrival measure — the same two instants described from the server's side and from the arrivals' side.

§3.2 applies Campbell's formula to rare events. Lemma 3.2.1 gives a closed form, in a countable-state Markov chain, for the mean time to make an excursion to a rare set and return; its two expressions count the same cycle rate from the two ends. Theorem 3.2.1 generalizes Keilson's asymptotic equivalence to a stationary θ_t-compatible process, replacing cycles by thinnings of the entrance processes of two disjoint sets.

§3.5 applies the stochastic intensity integration formula to a superposition of on-off fluid sources. Lemma 3.5.1 identifies a conditional expectation with a Palm expectation through Papangelou's theorem — the mean workload while a source is idle equals the mean workload that source sees when it wakes. Lemma 3.5.2 measures the gap between the two Palm expectations of the workload taken with respect to a source's start process and its fluid process.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, queueing_general_littles_law, is Stidham's deterministic sample-path law; its own docstring disclaims probability, expectation, stationarity, ergodicity and FIFO. Baccelli's L = λW is the Palm identity for a stationary ergodic marked point process, derived from the inversion formula (1.2.25) — an identity between an expectation under P and a Palm expectation under P⁰_N, not a pathwise limit. Different framework, different hypotheses, and neither implies the other.

Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in the form this chapter needs, and no stochastic intensity.

Formalization scope

  • PASTA carries both displays. (3.3.1) is an equality in [0, ∞] for every non-negative measurable f. (3.3.2) asserts that, P-almost surely, both averages converge in [0, ∞] to one common limit, so both limits exist. Predictability is measurability for the predictable σ-field P(F_t) of p.55. The concrete form Z(t,ω) = v(t, θ_t ω) of (1.8.1) is not used as the hypothesis, because for a general history it is strictly weaker. The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, E[A(a,b] | F_a] = λ(b − a), and not "A is Poisson".
  • Takács (3.4.44) and Pollaczek–Khinchin (3.4.45) are stated for every real u, and for u ≠ 0 respectively. Their hypotheses are the page's: σ_n is independent of W(T_n−) under P⁰_A, E⁰_A[e^{iuσ_0}] = E[e^{iuσ_0}], P(W(0) = 0) = 1 − ρ, and ρ < 1. The workload is a measurable, flow-compatible solution of Lindley's equation. (3.4.45) adds PASTA's hypotheses for {W(t−)}, and it asserts that its denominator is non-zero.
  • Lemma 3.2.1 asserts both closed forms of E_α R. The chain is irreducible, F is non-empty, and hitting times are counted from time 0.
  • Theorem 3.2.1 asserts the equality in (3.2.43), the convergence to 1, and E⁰_{F_n(→A)}[τ(F_n)] · Λ_n → 1. Its hypotheses are the section's standing ones: P is flow-invariant, {X(t)} is flow-compatible, and A and every F_n are regular and disjoint.
  • Lemmas 3.5.1 and 3.5.2 are stated for the full on-off model of §3.5.3. The on-off point processes are independent, their on periods, off periods and fluid functions are i.i.d. and independent, P⁰_{A^i} is the Palm probability of the random measure A^i, and the workload is the stationary solution of the fluid-queue equation. Lemma 3.5.1 is an identity in [0, ∞]. Lemma 3.5.2 assumes that E⁰_{A^i}[W(0)] and the expectation defining C_i are finite.

A formalization that makes Palm probability an opaque measure with the formulas as axioms, or that weakens predictability to adaptedness, trivializes this mission or makes it false, and is out of scope.

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Elements of Queueing Theory V: Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of QueuesTextbook

Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of Queues

Background

Chapters 1–3 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory compute exact quantities: Palm identities, stability criteria, PASTA, Pollaczek–Khinchin. Chapter 4 asks a different question. When you cannot compute a queue, can you at least say it is better than another one?

That requires an order on distributions. The chapter builds a family of them — integral orders — by choosing a class ℒ of test functions and declaring F ≤_ℒ G when ∫f dF ≤ ∫f dG for all f ∈ ℒ. Three matter: {i} the non-decreasing functions, giving the strong (stochastic) order; {cx} the convex functions, giving the convex order; and their intersection {icx}.

The goal

An integral order compares two distributions that need not live on the same probability space, and that is both its convenience and its difficulty. Strassen's theorems say each of these orders is secretly a statement about a coupling.

Theorem 4.2.2 (p.278), Strassen's ≤_cx theorem:

F ≤_cx G   ⟺   ∃ X ~ F, Y ~ G on one space with  E[Y | X] = X  a.s.
F ≤_icx G  ⟺   the same with  E[Y | X] ≥ X  a.s.

The convex order holds exactly when G is a martingale dilation of F — obtained by spreading each point out without moving its conditional mean. That is what makes the order usable: comparison results for queues become induction arguments on a coupling instead of analytic manipulations of convolutions of c.d.f.'s.

Its companion Theorem 4.2.1 is the ≤_st version, where the coupling is the simpler X ≤ Y a.s. In dimension one both are explicit — take X = F⁻¹(U), Y = G⁻¹(U) for a uniform U. In dimension n there is no such formula, and that is why these are Strassen's theorems. The book attributes both to Strassen (1965) and proves neither.

Why FIFO is optimal

§4.1 is a different kind of comparison: not between two queues, but between two service disciplines for the same queue. The order there is majorization ≺, which compares how spread out two vectors of the same total are.

The answer is that FIFO minimizes E⁰[f(V)] for every convex f (Property 4.1.3), and the proof is an interchange argument. Under any non-preemptive discipline that uses no information on the service times, customer k effectively receives service σ_{γ(k)} for some permutation γ; Lemma 4.1.3 shows the same queue is produced by FIFO fed with that reordered input, and that the reordering does not change the law of the input. Lemma 4.1.4 passes to the limit, which needs ρ < 1. Lemmas 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 then do the combinatorics: undoing one inversion of γ makes the waiting-time vector less spread out, so the identity permutation — FIFO — is extremal.

Feller's paradox, and what survives it

§4.4 compares time-stationary queues, and opens with a warning. T_n[P⁰] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃⁰] for every n does not imply T_n[P] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃]: Example 4.4.1, "Feller's paradox revisited", exhibits a Poisson process and a renewal process where the Palm order holds and the stationary one fails. The order does not pass from the Palm probability to the stationary one.

For ≤_cx it does. Lemma 4.4.1 is why: it expands E_P[f(N[0,x))] as a series of second differences of f against Palm expectations, and a convex f makes every coefficient non-negative. Lemma 4.4.2 handles the S-orders, built by dividing Palm integrals by the mean cycle length, and shows that the normalisation does not hide the comparison it normalises by.

Formalization scope

  • Orders. ≤_i, ≤_cx, ≤_icx on distributions on ℝⁿ are integral orders over the book's test classes (§4.2.1), with the page's qualification that only test functions with well-defined integrals count. Majorization ≺ is (4.1.2) with increasing reorderings of both vectors.
  • Strassen. Both theorems are stated as equivalences, with the coupling existential over the probability space. Theorem 4.2.2 carries both clauses — E[Y | X] = X for ≤_cx, E[Y | X] ≥ X for ≤_icx, as conditional expectations given σ(X) — and assumes both distributions integrable; Theorem 4.2.1 has no integrability hypothesis. A one-directional statement (the Jensen half) is not the theorem.
  • The queue of §4.1.3 is constructed: a GI/GI input (i.i.d. inter-arrival and service times, independent), a single work-conserving server started empty, and any non-preemptive discipline whose choices are measurable in the information the book's σ-field 𝒢_t carries (arrivals, service times of customers already started) plus external randomisation. FIFO is one such discipline. The interchange permutations γ_n and their limit γ are built from the schedule as on pp.268–270; Lemma 4.1.4 assumes ρ = E[σ₀]/E[τ₀] < 1.
  • Lemma 4.4.1 is stated with the exact second-difference series and assumes that series converges absolutely; the page states it for all f, which fails for heavy-tailed counts and sparse f.
  • The S-orders test against {I-ℒ} — primitives ∫_0^t f(u, x) du of test functions — and apply only to distributions whose first coordinate is a.s. positive with a finite mean.

What this mission provides

None of it exists. Mathlib has no stochastic order, no convex order, no increasing-convex order, no majorization, no Schur-convexity and no Strassen theorem; the platform returns zero hits for q=stochastic ordering. Everything in this chapter is new substrate — and §§4.1–4.2 need nothing from Palm calculus, so this mission can be read on its own.

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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to the Scenario Approach IV: The FAST Algorithm Keeps the Beta Bound and Adds a Factor (1−ε)^{N₂}Textbook

Motivation

The scenario approach turns an optimization problem under uncertainty into a finite, data-driven program: sample NNN instances of the uncertain parameter, optimize against all of them, and certify how often the resulting design fails on a new instance. Its main guarantee (Theorem 3.7 of Campi and Garatti's Introduction to the Scenario Approach) bounds the probability of failure by a binomial tail in NNN and in the number ddd of optimization variables. To reach a failure level ε\varepsilonε with confidence 1−β1-\beta1−β, the number of scenarios grows roughly like 2ε(ln⁡1β+d−1)\frac{2}{\varepsilon}\big(\ln\frac1\beta+d-1\big)ε2​(lnβ1​+d−1) (Theorem 1.1 of the book). The product of ddd and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε is what makes medium- and large-scale designs expensive: each scenario is one more constraint in the program that has to be solved.

FAST (Fast Algorithm for the Scenario Technique), introduced by Carè, Garatti and Campi in Operations Research 62 (2014), removes that product. It solves the program with a moderate number N1N_1N1​ of scenarios and then, instead of re-optimizing, raises the returned cost level until it covers N2N_2N2​ further scenarios. The book presents the algorithm and its guarantee, Theorem 8.5, in §8.3, and refers to the paper for the proof. This mission formalizes that guarantee.

Timeline:

  • 2006, Calafiore and Campi: violation bounds for the solution of convex scenario programs.
  • 2008, Campi and Garatti: the exact binomial bound, tight for fully supported problems (Theorem 3.7 of the book).
  • 2014, Carè, Garatti and Campi: FAST and its two-stage bound, Eq. (8.5).
  • 2018, Campi and Garatti's textbook, §8.3, the source of this mission.

Setting

Let Δ\DeltaΔ be a measurable space carrying a probability measure P\mathbb PP, and let ℓ(ν,δ)\ell(\nu,\delta)ℓ(ν,δ) be a real loss of a decision ν∈Rd−1\nu\in\mathbb R^{d-1}ν∈Rd−1 under the uncertain parameter δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ. As a standing assumption of the book, ℓ(⋅,δ)\ell(\cdot,\delta)ℓ(⋅,δ) is convex for every δ\deltaδ.

Given scenarios δ1,…,δm\delta_1,\dots,\delta_mδ1​,…,δm​ drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the scenario program (1.4) is

min⁡ν∈Rd−1 [max⁡i=1,…,m ℓ(ν,δi)].\min_{\nu\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}\ \Big[\max_{i=1,\dots,m}\ \ell(\nu,\delta_i)\Big].ν∈Rd−1min​ [i=1,…,mmax​ ℓ(ν,δi​)].

Its solution is ν∗\nu^*ν∗ and its optimal value ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗. Assumption 3.6 requires that for every mmm and every sample the solution exist and be unique. The pair (ν,ℓ)(\nu,\ell)(ν,ℓ) has ddd components, and ddd is the number that enters every bound.

The risk (Definition 8.2) of a decision ν\nuν with cost level ℓ\ellℓ is

R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ∈Δ: ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ},R(\nu,\ell)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta:\ \ell(\nu,\delta)>\ell\},R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ∈Δ: ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ},

the probability that a new instance costs more than promised. It is the violation V(ν,ℓ)V(\nu,\ell)V(ν,ℓ) of the epigraphic constraint ℓ≥ℓ(ν,δ)\ell\ge\ell(\nu,\delta)ℓ≥ℓ(ν,δ).

FAST takes N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ independent scenarios. It solves (1.4) with the first N1N_1N1​ of them, obtaining νN1∗\nu^*_{N_1}νN1​∗​. In the detuning step it then sets

ℓF∗=max⁡i=1,…,N1+N2 ℓ(νN1∗,δi),\ell^*_F=\max_{i=1,\dots,N_1+N_2}\ \ell(\nu^*_{N_1},\delta_i),ℓF∗​=i=1,…,N1​+N2​max​ ℓ(νN1​∗​,δi​),

the smallest level that covers every scenario seen. The output is (νF∗,ℓF∗)(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)(νF∗​,ℓF∗​) with νF∗=νN1∗\nu^*_F=\nu^*_{N_1}νF∗​=νN1​∗​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.5, Eq. (8.5)

For every ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1],

PN1+N2{V(νF∗,ℓF∗)>ε} ≤ (1−ε)N2∑i=0d−1(N1i)εi(1−ε)N1−i.\mathbb P^{N_1+N_2}\{V(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)>\varepsilon\}\ \le\ (1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom{N_1}{i}\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N_1-i}.PN1​+N2​{V(νF∗​,ℓF∗​)>ε} ≤ (1−ε)N2​i=0∑d−1​(iN1​​)εi(1−ε)N1​−i.

No relation between N1N_1N1​ and ddd is required. When N1<dN_1<dN1​<d the sum equals 111 and the bound reads (1−ε)N2(1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}(1−ε)N2​.

Milestone: Theorem 3.7 for program (1.4)

The first stage is an ordinary scenario program with N1N_1N1​ scenarios. For N≥dN\ge dN≥d,

PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε} ≤ ∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i,\mathbb P^N\{R(\nu^*,\ell^*)>\varepsilon\}\ \le\ \sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom{N}{i}\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i},PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε} ≤ i=0∑d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i,

that is, R(ν∗,ℓ∗)R(\nu^*,\ell^*)R(ν∗,ℓ∗) is dominated by a B(d,N−d+1)B(d,N-d+1)B(d,N−d+1) distribution (recalled on p. 90).

Milestone: the N2N_2N2​ rule

For ε,β∈(0,1)\varepsilon,\beta\in(0,1)ε,β∈(0,1), N2≥1εln⁡1βN_2\ge\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaN2​≥ε1​lnβ1​ makes the right-hand side of (8.5) at most β\betaβ (p. 95).

Significance

The result. Theorem 8.5 makes the guarantee of the scenario approach cheap to obtain. With N1=KdN_1=KdN1​=Kd (the book suggests K≈20K\approx20K≈20) and N2≥1εln⁡1βN_2\ge\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaN2​≥ε1​lnβ1​, the total number of scenarios is Kd+1εln⁡1βKd+\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaKd+ε1​lnβ1​. This is additive in ddd and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε rather than multiplicative, and the added N2N_2N2​ scenarios cost only function evaluations, not a larger optimization. The price is suboptimality: ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is in general higher than the value a classical scenario program with the same confidence would return.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, in the cited 2014 article; the book states it without proof. No part of the scenario theory has been machine-checked on this platform, as far as a search of the catalog shows. The mission produces a checked two-stage bound whose first stage is the loss-function form of Theorem 3.7, which is reusable by every mission of the series that works with program (1.4). The N2N_2N2​ rule is an elementary but explicit sample-size certificate.

Difficulty

The obvious route treats the detuning step as a fresh scenario program with N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios and applies Theorem 3.7 to it. That fails: νF∗\nu^*_FνF∗​ is not the solution of that program, and Theorem 3.7 with N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios gives a bound that is not of the product form (8.5). The level ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ depends on all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios at once, including those that determined νN1∗\nu^*_{N_1}νN1​∗​, and the map c↦R(ν,c)c\mapsto R(\nu,c)c↦R(ν,c) is monotone but need not be continuous, so the event V(νF∗,ℓF∗)>εV(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)>\varepsilonV(νF∗​,ℓF∗​)>ε is not a simple event about the new scenarios. Underneath the goal sits Theorem 3.7 itself, which is the main theorem of the book and whose proof occupies Chapter 5.

Formalization scope

Lean representation:

  • The decision space Rd−1\mathbb R^{d-1}Rd−1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); the book's ddd is written n+1n+1n+1, never with natural-number subtraction.
  • A sample of size mmm is ω : Fin m → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P), and the same P\mathbb PP defines the risk. FAST draws one sample ω : Fin (N₁ + N₂) → Δ; its first stage is ω ∘ Fin.castAdd N₂.
  • The maximum in (1.4) and in ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is Finset.sup' over a nonempty index set. ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ runs over all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios, not over the N2N_2N2​ new ones only.
  • The risk is (P {δ | c < ℓ ν δ}).toReal, with the strict inequality of Definition 8.2 and the strict event V>εV>\varepsilonV>ε of (8.5). Probabilities of sample events are compared in ℝ≥0∞ through ENNReal.ofReal.
  • The first-stage solution is a map νstar from samples to decisions, with the hypothesis that νstar ω₁ solves the program for every sample ω₁.

Hypotheses the book leaves implicit, stated explicitly:

  1. ℓ(⋅,δ)\ell(\cdot,\delta)ℓ(⋅,δ) is convex for every δ\deltaδ (standing assumption, p. 6).
  2. Existence and uniqueness of the solution (Assumption 3.6) for every m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and every sample. The program with no scenario has no minimum, so m=0m=0m=0 is excluded.
  3. N1≥1N_1\ge1N1​≥1, since the first stage needs a scenario.
  4. ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1]; for ε>1\varepsilon>1ε>1 the factor (1−ε)N2(1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}(1−ε)N2​ can be negative.
  5. The loss is jointly measurable in (ν,δ)(\nu,\delta)(ν,δ) and the first-stage solution map is measurable. The book glosses over measurability (p. 6, footnote 1; p. 33).

A formalization that bounds only the N2N_2N2​ new scenarios is ruled out, because ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is defined as a maximum over all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios. So is one that takes ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ as a free variable or drops Assumption 3.6: the goal is stated for the output of FAST as the book defines it.

A complete development needs the scenario program in loss form, product-measure conditioning on ΔN1×ΔN2\Delta^{N_1}\times\Delta^{N_2}ΔN1​×ΔN2​, and Theorem 3.7. The loss-form Theorem 3.7 is the reusable piece. Proofs of the milestones and of intermediate conditioning lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM, 2018, §8.3 and Theorem 3.7. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • A. Carè, S. Garatti, M. C. Campi, FAST—Fast Algorithm for the Scenario Technique, Operations Research 62(3):662–671, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1257
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19(3):1211–1230, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51(5):742–753, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
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Introduction to the Scenario Approach II: Violation Guarantees after Discarding k ConstraintsTextbook

Motivation

Decisions under uncertainty are often required to satisfy a constraint θ∈Θδ\theta \in \Theta_\deltaθ∈Θδ​ that depends on a random parameter δ\deltaδ, and requiring it for every possible δ\deltaδ is usually too conservative or infeasible. The scenario approach replaces the unknown distribution of δ\deltaδ by NNN independent samples (scenarios) and enforces only the sampled constraints; its generalization theorem (Campi and Garatti, 2008) bounds the probability that the resulting decision violates a fresh constraint.

Enforcing all NNN sampled constraints can still be costly: a few unusual scenarios may dominate the solution. A practitioner therefore often discards kkk of the sampled constraints, optimally, greedily or at random, and re-solves. The question is what guarantee survives: the removed constraints were chosen by looking at the data, so the solution is biased towards points of higher risk. Campi and Garatti (2011) answered it with a bound that holds for every removal procedure. This mission formalizes that answer as it is presented in Chapter 3, Section 3.3 and Chapter 5, Section 5.3 of the textbook Introduction to the Scenario Approach (Campi and Garatti, SIAM/MOS 2018), together with its explicit corollary, Theorem 1.2. Applications include chance-constrained control, portfolio selection and prediction, where discarding scenarios trades a controlled amount of risk for a better cost.

Setting

A decision θ\thetaθ ranges over Rd\mathbb R^dRd (in Lean, EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d)), with a closed convex domain Θ\ThetaΘ and a linear cost cTθc^{\mathsf T}\thetacTθ. An uncertain parameter δ\deltaδ takes values in a measurable space Δ\DeltaΔ with probability P\mathbb PP, and each δ\deltaδ determines a closed convex constraint set Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​. The violation probability of a decision is

V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∉Θδ}.V(\theta) = \mathbb P\{\delta \in \Delta : \theta \notin \Theta_\delta\}.V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∈/Θδ​}.

Given independent samples δ1,…,δN\delta_1,\dots,\delta_Nδ1​,…,δN​ with joint law PN\mathbb P^NPN, the scenario program minimizes cTθc^{\mathsf T}\thetacTθ over θ∈Θ∩⋂i=1NΘδi\theta \in \Theta \cap \bigcap_{i=1}^N \Theta_{\delta_i}θ∈Θ∩⋂i=1N​Θδi​​. For a set III of indexes, the program without the constraints in III minimizes the same cost over Θ∩⋂i∉IΘδi\Theta \cap \bigcap_{i \notin I} \Theta_{\delta_i}Θ∩⋂i∈/I​Θδi​​; its solution is written θI∗\theta^*_IθI∗​. A removal procedure selects, as a function of the whole sample, a set of kkk indexes, and θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ denotes the solution of the program without them. The procedure is required to output a solution that violates exactly the kkk removed constraints (with probability one): a removed constraint that turns out to be satisfied is reinstated and another is removed. Two standing assumptions are used throughout: Assumption 3.4, that Θ\ThetaΘ and every Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​ are convex and closed, and Assumption 3.6, that for every sample size mmm and every sample the scenario program has exactly one solution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.9

For N≥dN \ge dN≥d, under Assumptions 3.4 and 3.6, for every removal procedure and every ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon \in [0,1]ε∈[0,1],

PN{V(θk∗)>ε}≤(k+d−1k)∑i=0k+d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i.\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilon\} \le \binom{k+d-1}{k} \sum_{i=0}^{k+d-1} \binom Ni \varepsilon^i (1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}.PN{V(θk∗​)>ε}≤(kk+d−1​)i=0∑k+d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i.

The bound depends on the problem only through ddd, and on the removal procedure not at all. For k=0k = 0k=0 it is Theorem 3.7.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.7 (no removal): PN{V(θ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*) > \varepsilon\} \le \sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}PN{V(θ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i, used for the program with the N−kN-kN−k kept constraints.
  2. Eq. (5.11): up to a zero probability set, the event {V(θk∗)>ε}\{V(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilon\}{V(θk∗​)>ε} is contained in the union over all kkk-element index sets III of the events "θI∗\theta^*_IθI∗​ violates all constraints in III and V(θI∗)>εV(\theta^*_I) > \varepsilonV(θI∗​)>ε".
  3. Eq. (5.13): for a fixed III, the probability of that event equals ∫(ε,1]αkFV(dα)\int_{(\varepsilon,1]} \alpha^k F_V(d\alpha)∫(ε,1]​αkFV​(dα), where FVF_VFV​ is the law of V(θI∗)V(\theta^*_I)V(θI∗​).
  4. Eq. (5.14) and Theorem 3.9 for d=2d = 2d=2: the book's complete proof in the plane.
  5. Eqs. (3.15)–(3.17) and the conclusion of Section 3.3.1: with the explicit level εk\varepsilon_kεk​ of (1.9), the right-hand side of (3.13) is at most β\betaβ.
  6. Theorem 1.2: with probability at least 1−β1-\beta1−β, V(θk∗)≤εkV(\theta^*_k) \le \varepsilon_kV(θk∗​)≤εk​, where
εk=kN+[kN+k+1N((d−1)ln⁡(k+d−1)+d−1k+ln⁡1β)].\varepsilon_k = \frac{k}{N} + \left[\frac{\sqrt k}{N} + \frac{\sqrt k+1}{N}\left((d-1)\ln(k+d-1) + \frac{d-1}{\sqrt k} + \ln\frac1\beta\right)\right].εk​=Nk​+[Nk​​+Nk​+1​((d−1)ln(k+d−1)+k​d−1​+lnβ1​)].

Significance

Theorem 3.9 certifies every constraint-removal heuristic at once. Since the guarantee is the same for optimal, greedy and random removal, a user may pick the removal strategy purely for cost, and may inspect several values of kkk before choosing, paying only a union bound over the values tried (Section 3.3). Theorem 1.2 turns the bound into an explicit rate: when k/Nk/Nk/N is held fixed, the violation exceeds the empirical risk k/Nk/Nk/N by a margin of order ln⁡N/N\ln N/\sqrt NlnN/N​, only slightly worse than the 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ rate for estimating the probability of a fixed event. The result also shows that the violation after removal concentrates around the target level, which is the basis of the book's comparison between sampling-and-discarding and simply using fewer scenarios (Example 3.10).

Theorem 3.9 is proved in the literature for general ddd (Campi and Garatti, 2011); the textbook proves it for d=2d = 2d=2. To our knowledge no part of the scenario approach has a machine-checked proof. A formal development would supply the first verified version of the removal bound, a Lean treatment of solution maps of random convex programs, and reusable combinatorial and binomial-tail estimates.

Difficulty

The removed set is chosen after seeing the data, so the kept constraints are not an independent sample and Theorem 3.7 cannot be applied to θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ directly. The argument must pass through all (Nk)\binom Nk(kN​) fixed index sets and account for the event that the removed constraints are violated; a plain union bound that ignores this event loses a factor (Nk)\binom Nk(kN​) and does not give (3.13). For a fixed index set, the probability that the kkk removed scenarios are all violated involves the distribution of V(θI∗)V(\theta^*_I)V(θI∗​), which is only known to be dominated by a Beta law, so a stochastic-domination argument for the increasing function α↦αk\alpha \mapsto \alpha^kα↦αk is needed. In general dimension the combinatorial constant (k+d−1k)\binom{k+d-1}{k}(kk+d−1​) comes from a sharper counting than the two-dimensional computation of Section 5.3, and that argument is in the cited paper rather than in the book.

Formalization scope

Decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), samples of size mmm are maps Fin m → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P) for a probability measure P, and the violation is the real number (P {δ | θ ∉ Θδ δ}).toReal. Events over samples are compared in ℝ≥0∞ with ENNReal.ofReal of the book's right-hand side. The removal procedure is an arbitrary map I : (Fin N → Δ) → Finset (Fin N) with (I ω).card = k, and θk is a map that, for every sample, solves the program without the constraints in I ω, and violates each of them with probability one. The following implicit hypotheses of the book are written as binders:

  • d≥1d \ge 1d≥1, d≤Nd \le Nd≤N, k≤Nk \le Nk≤N and ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon \in [0,1]ε∈[0,1];
  • Assumption 3.6 for every mmm, including m=0m = 0m=0, and for every sample (not almost every);
  • the removed constraints are violated with probability one (∀ᵐ ω ∂ℙ^N), the book's own hypothesis on p. 65, so (5.11) is an inclusion up to a null set as on the page; requiring the violation for every sample would be unsatisfiable for 1≤k<N1 \le k < N1≤k<N (on a sample with all δi\delta_iδi​ equal a kept constraint coincides with a removed one) and would make the results vacuous;
  • measurability, which the book glosses over (p. 33): the constraint relation {(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ}\{(\theta,\delta) : \theta \in \Theta_\delta\}{(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ​} is jointly measurable, the solution map of the scenario program with mmm constraints is measurable for every mmm, and θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ is measurable;
  • for Theorem 1.2 and Section 3.3.1: k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 (formula (1.9) divides by k\sqrt kk​), N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1); Section 3.3.1 additionally assumes εk≤1\varepsilon_k \le 1εk​≤1, the range in which its chain of inequalities holds.

Theorem 1.2 is stated in the constraint formulation of Chapter 3, to which the book says it "straightforwardly generalizes" (p. 20), with the hypotheses of Theorem 3.9 from which Section 3.3.1 derives it. Eq. (5.14) and the closing display of Section 5.3 are stated for d=2d = 2d=2 only, as in the book.

A trivializing formalization is excluded: the removal procedure is universally quantified, the solutions are exact minimizers rather than arbitrary feasible points, and the event is the strict V(θk∗)>εV(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilonV(θk∗​)>ε; a statement for one fixed rule, or with θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ unconstrained, would be a different theorem.

A complete development needs: product measures and Fubini over Fin N → Δ, reindexing of the kept constraints as a sample of size N−kN-kN−k, the Beta form of the binomial tail (the platform's binomial_upper_tail_eq_incomplete_beta is available), and stochastic domination for monotone integrands. Solution-map and violation infrastructure is shared with the sibling missions of this series. Contributions on any milestone, including the general-ddd counting argument of the cited paper, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM/MOS, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, A sampling-and-discarding approach to chance-constrained optimization: feasibility and optimality, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 148(2), 257–280, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10957-010-9754-6
  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19(3), 1211–1230, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • G. C. Calafiore and M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51(5), 742–753, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
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Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization VI: Adaptive Stepsizes and Cesàro Convergence of Stochastic Quasigradient MethodsTextbook

Motivation

Stochastic quasigradient (SQG) methods minimize an expectation F(x)=Eωf(x,ω)F(x)=E_\omega f(x,\omega)F(x)=Eω​f(x,ω) over a constraint set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn when neither FFF nor its gradient can be computed, only random vectors whose conditional mean is (close to) a subgradient. They are the workhorse of stochastic programming and, under the name stochastic gradient descent, of large-scale statistical learning. The classical convergence theory, going back to Robbins and Monro (1951) and to Ermoliev's quasi-Féjer analysis, asks the stepsizes to be chosen in advance with ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0, ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞, ∑ρs2<∞\sum\rho_s^2<\infty∑ρs2​<∞. Uryasev, in Chapter 18 of Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization (Ermoliev and Wets, eds., 1988), points out that such programmed rules are slow in practice, and that practitioners want adaptive stepsizes computed on line from the observed directions.

Timeline:

  • 1951: Robbins and Monro, stochastic approximation with programmed steps.
  • 1976: Ermoliev, Methods of Stochastic Programming: the SQG projection method and its a.s. convergence through stochastic quasi-Féjer sequences.
  • 1983: Mirzoakhmedov and Uryasev (Zh. Vychisl. Mat. i Mat. Fiz., cited as [7] in Ch. 18 and [14] in Ch. 17): Cesàro convergence of the weighted mean with ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0 and ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞ only, under the two measurability regimes. Chapter 17 states it as Theorem (ii); Chapter 18 as Theorem 1.
  • 1988: Uryasev, Ch. 18, applies it to the adaptive rule (18.5) (Theorem 2).
  • 1992: Polyak and Juditsky, averaging of iterates for smooth stochastic approximation, with optimal asymptotic variance.

Setting

Let X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be nonempty, convex and compact, C1=max⁡x,y∈X∥x−y∥C_1=\max_{x,y\in X}\|x-y\|C1​=maxx,y∈X​∥x−y∥ its diameter, and FFF convex on an open convex set U⊇XU\supseteq XU⊇X, with subdifferential ∂F(x)\partial F(x)∂F(x). The projection πX(y)\pi_X(y)πX​(y) is the point of XXX nearest to yyy. On a probability space, the SQG method generates

xs+1=πX(xs−ρsξs),s=0,1,…(18.2)x^{s+1}=\pi_X(x^s-\rho_s\xi^s),\qquad s=0,1,\dots\qquad(18.2)xs+1=πX​(xs−ρs​ξs),s=0,1,…(18.2)

from x0∈Xx^0\in Xx0∈X, where the direction ξs\xi^sξs is a stochastic quasigradient: E(ξs∣Bs)=Fx(xs)+bsE(\xi^s\mid B_s)=F_x(x^s)+b^sE(ξs∣Bs​)=Fx​(xs)+bs with Fx(xs)∈∂F(xs)F_x(x^s)\in\partial F(x^s)Fx​(xs)∈∂F(xs), a bias bsb^sbs, and BsB_sBs​ the σ\sigmaσ-algebra induced by (x0,…,xs,ξ0,…,ξs−1)(x^0,\dots,x^s,\xi^0,\dots,\xi^{s-1})(x0,…,xs,ξ0,…,ξs−1).

The adaptive stepsize rule of the chapter is, for fixed a>1a>1a>1, δ>0\delta>0δ>0 and ρ0>0\rho_0>0ρ0​>0,

ρs+1=ρs a⟨ξs+1, xs−xs+1⟩−δρs(18.5).\rho_{s+1}=\rho_s\,a^{\langle\xi^{s+1},\,x^s-x^{s+1}\rangle-\delta\rho_s}\qquad(18.5).ρs+1​=ρs​a⟨ξs+1,xs−xs+1⟩−δρs​(18.5).

The step grows when consecutive moves point the same way and shrinks otherwise. The weighted (Cesàro) averages are

xˉs=∑ℓ=0sρℓxℓ/∑ℓ=0sρℓ(18.6).\bar x^s=\sum_{\ell=0}^s\rho_\ell x^\ell\Big/\sum_{\ell=0}^s\rho_\ell\qquad(18.6).xˉs=ℓ=0∑s​ρℓ​xℓ/ℓ=0∑s​ρℓ​(18.6).

The sequence xsx^sxs is Cesàro convergent when xˉs\bar x^sxˉs converges to the solution set.

Chapter 17 (Pflug) uses the same method for f(x)=EP q(x,ξ)f(x)=E_P\,q(x,\xi)f(x)=EP​q(x,ξ) over a closed convex S⊆RkS\subseteq\mathbb R^kS⊆Rk, with Y=∇q(Xn,ξn)Y=\nabla q(X_n,\xi_n)Y=∇q(Xn​,ξn​) from i.i.d. ξn\xi_nξn​ and stepsizes adapted to σ(ξ0,…,ξn−1)\sigma(\xi_0,\dots,\xi_{n-1})σ(ξ0​,…,ξn−1​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 of Chapter 18

Under sup⁡s∥ξs∥<C2\sup_s\|\xi^s\|<C_2sups​∥ξs∥<C2​ (18.15), lim sup⁡∥bs∥≤bˉ\limsup\|b^s\|\le\bar blimsup∥bs∥≤bˉ (18.16) and δ>C2lim sup⁡sinf⁡h∈∂F(xs)∥ξs−h∥\delta>C_2\limsup_s\inf_{h\in\partial F(x^s)}\|\xi^s-h\|δ>C2​limsups​infh∈∂F(xs)​∥ξs−h∥ (18.17), almost surely,

lim sup⁡s→∞(F(xˉs)−min⁡x∈XF(x))≤bˉ C1,\limsup_{s\to\infty}\Big(F(\bar x^s)-\min_{x\in X}F(x)\Big)\le\bar b\,C_1,s→∞limsup​(F(xˉs)−x∈Xmin​F(x))≤bˉC1​,

and if bs→0b^s\to0bs→0 a.s., then F(xˉs)→min⁡XFF(\bar x^s)\to\min_XFF(xˉs)→minX​F and all accumulation points of xˉs\bar x^sxˉs are minimizers, almost surely.

Milestones

  1. Chapter 17, Theorem (i): ∑ρn=∞\sum\rho_n=\infty∑ρn​=∞ and ∑ρn2<∞\sum\rho_n^2<\infty∑ρn2​<∞ a.s. imply Xn→x∗X_n\to x^*Xn​→x∗ a.s.
  2. Chapter 17, Theorem (ii): for convex fff and bounded SSS, ρn→0\rho_n\to0ρn​→0 and ∑ρn=∞\sum\rho_n=\infty∑ρn​=∞ a.s. imply Xˉn→x∗\bar X_n\to x^*Xˉn​→x∗ a.s.
  3. Chapter 18, Theorem 1: for any stepsizes with ρs>0\rho_s>0ρs​>0, Eρs2<∞E\rho_s^2<\inftyEρs2​<∞, ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0, ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞ and measurability condition (1) or (2), lim sup⁡F(xˉs)−F(x∗)≤bˉC1\limsup F(\bar x^s)-F(x^*)\le\bar bC_1limsupF(xˉs)−F(x∗)≤bˉC1​ a.s.
  4. Chapter 18, Corollary: with bs→0b^s\to0bs→0, the accumulation points of xˉs\bar x^sxˉs are solutions.
  5. Eq. (18.18): ∥xs+1−xs∥≤∥ρsξs∥≤ρsC2\|x^{s+1}-x^s\|\le\|\rho_s\xi^s\|\le\rho_sC_2∥xs+1−xs∥≤∥ρs​ξs∥≤ρs​C2​.
  6. Proof of Theorem 2, step 1: the adaptive steps satisfy ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞.
  7. Proof of Theorem 2, step 2: under (18.17), ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0.
  8. End of step 2: ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0 implies ρs+1/ρs→1\rho_{s+1}/\rho_s\to1ρs+1​/ρs​→1.

Significance

Theorem 2 is a convergence guarantee for a stepsize rule that is computed from the run itself. It needs no square summability of the steps, and it tolerates a nonvanishing bias at a cost linear in the bias. This is the regime of practical SQG codes; §18.4–18.5 of the chapter discuss implementation and numerical experiments. Theorem 1 isolates the reason: Cesàro convergence needs only ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0 and ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞. It also allows a stepsize that depends on the current direction, provided consecutive steps have ratio tending to 111.

The volume proves none of the probabilistic results in full. Theorem 1 of Chapter 18 is cited from Uryasev's earlier report. Theorem 2 has an outline proof that reduces it to Theorem 1. Chapter 17 gives a sketch through the Robbins–Siegmund lemma. None of these results is formalized. The mission produces machine-checked statements of all of them, with the misprints of the page resolved, and it separates the pathwise part of the Theorem 2 argument (steps 1 and 2, which are deterministic) from the martingale part (Theorem 1).

Difficulty

The obvious route to a.s. convergence is the quasi-Féjer or Robbins–Siegmund argument. It controls ∥xs−x∗∥2\|x^s-x^*\|^2∥xs−x∗∥2 and needs ∑ρs2∥ξs∥2<∞\sum\rho_s^2\|\xi^s\|^2<\infty∑ρs2​∥ξs∥2<∞, which is exactly what is not available here. The averaged analysis has to show that the martingale term ∑ℓρℓ⟨ξℓ−E(ξℓ∣Bℓ),x∗−xℓ⟩\sum_\ell\rho_\ell\langle\xi^\ell-E(\xi^\ell\mid B_\ell),x^*-x^\ell\rangle∑ℓ​ρℓ​⟨ξℓ−E(ξℓ∣Bℓ​),x∗−xℓ⟩ is o(∑ℓρℓ)o(\sum_\ell\rho_\ell)o(∑ℓ​ρℓ​) almost surely, and that ∑ℓρℓ2∥ξℓ∥2\sum_\ell\rho_\ell^2\|\xi^\ell\|^2∑ℓ​ρℓ2​∥ξℓ∥2 is o(∑ℓρℓ)o(\sum_\ell\rho_\ell)o(∑ℓ​ρℓ​), when the stepsizes are themselves random. Under condition (2) of Theorem 1, ρs\rho_sρs​ is not even measurable with respect to the σ\sigmaσ-algebra of the conditional expectation. So E(ρsξs∣Bs)≠ρsE(ξs∣Bs)E(\rho_s\xi^s\mid B_s)\ne\rho_sE(\xi^s\mid B_s)E(ρs​ξs∣Bs​)=ρs​E(ξs∣Bs​), and the standard decomposition breaks. For the adaptive rule, the stepsizes are coupled to the iterates through the exponent. Neither ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞ nor ρs→0\rho_s\to0ρs​→0 is given, and both must be derived path by path.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Sequences are indexed from 000. Chapter 17 is shifted by one against the page: its Xn,ξn,FnX_n,\xi_n,\mathcal F_nXn​,ξn​,Fn​, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, become indices n−1n-1n−1. Conditional expectations are Mathlib's condExp with respect to the history σ\sigmaσ-algebras of the definition file. Every lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup bound is written out as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually ⋯≤⋯+ε\dots\le\dots+\varepsilon⋯≤⋯+ε", or in (18.17) as a bound LLL with C2L<δC_2L<\deltaC2​L<δ. Expectations of squared norms are lower Lebesgue integrals. The deterministic proof steps (items 5 to 8) are stated for one sample path.

Readings of the page, each recorded in the item's Formalization Note:

  • (18.17) prints C1C_1C1​. The proof's estimate gives (C2Cs−δ)ρs(C_2C_s-\delta)\rho_s(C2​Cs​−δ)ρs​, and only C2C_2C2​ is invariant under rescaling of Rn\mathbb R^nRn, so C2C_2C2​ is stated.
  • (18.5) has two forms that agree only without projection. The proof uses the second, a⟨ξs+1,xs−xs+1⟩−δρsa^{\langle\xi^{s+1},x^s-x^{s+1}\rangle-\delta\rho_s}a⟨ξs+1,xs−xs+1⟩−δρs​, which is stated.
  • (18.8) prints Fs(xs)F_s(x^s)Fs​(xs) for Fx(xs)F_x(x^s)Fx​(xs). (18.11) prints EρssE\rho_s^sEρss​, read as Eρs2<∞E\rho_s^2<\inftyEρs2​<∞.
  • Theorem 2's "F(xs)−min⁡z∈XF(x)→0F(x^s)-\min z\in XF(x)\to0F(xs)−minz∈XF(x)→0" is read as F(xˉs)−min⁡XF→0F(\bar x^s)-\min_XF\to0F(xˉs)−minX​F→0.
  • The end of step 2 prints ρs+1/ρs→0\rho_{s+1}/\rho_s\to0ρs+1​/ρs​→0, read as →1\to1→1.
  • Chapter 17, assumption (ii) prints ∥∇f(x)∥≤A+B∥x−x∗∥2\|\nabla f(x)\|\le A+B\|x-x^*\|^2∥∇f(x)∥≤A+B∥x−x∗∥2. The proof uses ∥∇f(x)∥2\|\nabla f(x)\|^2∥∇f(x)∥2, and the printed form makes part (i) false, so the squared form is stated. Var(Yx)≤C\mathrm{Var}(Y_x)\le CVar(Yx​)≤C is read as E∥Yx−EYx∥2≤CE\|Y_x-EY_x\|^2\le CE∥Yx​−EYx​∥2≤C.
  • The Corollary adds lower semicontinuity of FFF on XXX, without which it fails.
  • x0∈Xx^0\in Xx0∈X is assumed, and ρ0\rho_0ρ0​ in Theorem 2 is a fixed positive number.

No explicit constants replace an O(·) or an unspecified "C": every constant appears in the book's statements.

A trivializing formalization states Theorem 2 for arbitrary stepsizes satisfying (18.10)–(18.13), which is Theorem 1 again. Here the stepsizes are tied to the iterates by (18.5), and the δ\deltaδ of (18.17) is the δ\deltaδ of the rule.

Needed infrastructure: a Robbins–Siegmund almost-supermartingale lemma, which Mathlib does not have; a strong law for martingale differences with random weights (Kronecker's lemma in its stochastic form); nonexpansiveness of the projection onto a closed convex set; and nonemptiness of the subdifferential of a finite convex function on an open set. The first two are reusable across stochastic approximation. Contributions of any of the milestones, or of these lemmas as separate theorems, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Ch. Pflug, Stepsize Rules, Stopping Times and their Implementation in Stochastic Quasigradient Algorithms, in Yu. Ermoliev and R. J-B Wets (eds.), Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization, Springer 1988, Ch. 17. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • S. Uryasev, Adaptive Stochastic Quasigradient Procedures, ibid., Ch. 18. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • Yu. Ermoliev, Stochastic Quasigradient Methods, ibid., Ch. 6. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • F. Mirzoakhmedov and S. P. Uryasev, Adaptive step size control for stochastic optimization algorithm, Zh. Vychisl. Mat. i Mat. Fiz. 23(6) (1983) 1314–1325 (in Russian); cited in the volume above, no online copy linked.
  • H. Robbins and S. Monro, A Stochastic Approximation Method, Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951) 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press 1971, 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • B. T. Polyak and A. B. Juditsky, Acceleration of Stochastic Approximation by Averaging, SIAM J. Control Optim. 30 (1992) 838–855. https://doi.org/10.1137/0330046
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Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains IV: Backorder Convexity and Everett's TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Service parts (spares for aircraft, machines, and networks) are typically managed item by item with a one-for-one replenishment policy, the (s−1,s)(s-1, s)(s−1,s) policy: every unit withdrawn to meet a demand triggers an order for one replacement, so the inventory position stays at the stock level sss. A firm stocking thousands of such items at one location has to choose all the stock levels together, trading a budget on inventory investment against a service measure. Chapter 3 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) sets up the three standard service measures (fill rate, ready rate, expected backorders), shows which of them have the convexity that optimization needs, and solves two multi-item stocking problems: minimum expected backorders under an investment budget, by Lagrangian relaxation justified by Everett's theorem, and maximum average fill rate, by a greedy marginal-analysis rule.

The Lagrangian method goes back to Everett (Operations Research 1963); the search for the multiplier in one-constraint problems of this kind is Fox and Landi (Operations Research 1970); the compound Poisson (s−1,s)(s-1,s)(s−1,s) model is Feeney and Sherbrooke (Management Science 1966). The same separable Lagrangian structure underlies the multi-echelon METRIC-type models later in the book.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location, demand not met from stock is backordered, and customer orders arrive as a Poisson process of rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. An order is for jjj units with probability uju_juj​, where u0=0u_0 = 0u0​=0 and the mean order size uˉ=∑jjuj\bar u = \sum_j j u_juˉ=∑j​juj​ is finite (compound Poisson demand; simple Poisson demand is u1=1u_1 = 1u1​=1). Resupply times have mean τˉ>0\bar\tau > 0τˉ>0. The steady-state probability that xxx units are in resupply is

p(0∣λτˉ)=e−λτˉ,p(x∣λτˉ)=∑j≥1e−λτˉ(λτˉ)jj! ux(j)(x≥1),p(0 \mid \lambda\bar\tau) = e^{-\lambda\bar\tau}, \qquad p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau) = \sum_{j \ge 1} e^{-\lambda\bar\tau}\frac{(\lambda\bar\tau)^j}{j!}\,u^{(j)}_x \quad (x \ge 1),p(0∣λτˉ)=e−λτˉ,p(x∣λτˉ)=j≥1∑​e−λτˉj!(λτˉ)j​ux(j)​(x≥1),

where ux(j)u^{(j)}_xux(j)​ is the probability that jjj orders total xxx units. In this mission p(⋅∣λτˉ)p(\cdot \mid \lambda\bar\tau)p(⋅∣λτˉ) is the definition of the model, not a consequence of Palm's theorem. The mean lead-time demand is μ=λτˉuˉ\mu = \lambda\bar\tau\bar uμ=λτˉuˉ, and the book also writes p(x∣μ)p(x \mid \mu)p(x∣μ).

For a stock level s∈{0,1,2,… }s \in \{0, 1, 2, \dots\}s∈{0,1,2,…}:

  • the ready rate is R(s)=∑x≤sp(x∣λτˉ)R(s) = \sum_{x \le s} p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)R(s)=∑x≤s​p(x∣λτˉ);
  • the expected backorders are B(s)=∑x>s(x−s) p(x∣λτˉ)B(s) = \sum_{x > s}(x - s)\,p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)B(s)=∑x>s​(x−s)p(x∣λτˉ);
  • the expected on-hand inventory is ∑x≤s(s−x) p(x∣λτˉ)\sum_{x \le s}(s - x)\,p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)∑x≤s​(s−x)p(x∣λτˉ);
  • under simple Poisson demand the fill rate is F(s)=∑x<sp(x∣λτˉ)F(s) = \sum_{x < s} p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)F(s)=∑x<s​p(x∣λτˉ).

Forward differences are Δf(s)=f(s+1)−f(s)\Delta f(s) = f(s+1) - f(s)Δf(s)=f(s+1)−f(s) and Δ2f(s)=Δf(s+1)−Δf(s)\Delta^2 f(s) = \Delta f(s+1) - \Delta f(s)Δ2f(s)=Δf(s+1)−Δf(s); discrete convexity means Δ2f≥0\Delta^2 f \ge 0Δ2f≥0.

With nnn items, unit costs ci>0c_i > 0ci​>0 and budget bbb, Problem 4 (3.40) is

min⁡∑iBi(si)s.t.∑ici [si−μi+Bi(si)]≤b,si∈{0,1,… }.\min \sum_i B_i(s_i) \quad \text{s.t.} \quad \sum_i c_i\,[s_i - \mu_i + B_i(s_i)] \le b,\quad s_i \in \{0,1,\dots\}.mini∑​Bi​(si​)s.t.i∑​ci​[si​−μi​+Bi​(si​)]≤b,si​∈{0,1,…}.

For a multiplier θ>0\theta > 0θ>0, the item-wise criterion defines si∗(θ)s_i^*(\theta)si∗​(θ) as the least sss with ∑x≤sp(x∣μi)≥1/(1+θci)\sum_{x \le s} p(x \mid \mu_i) \ge 1/(1 + \theta c_i)∑x≤s​p(x∣μi​)≥1/(1+θci​), and C(θ)=∑ici [si∗(θ)−μi+Bi(si∗(θ))]C(\theta) = \sum_i c_i\,[s_i^*(\theta) - \mu_i + B_i(s_i^*(\theta))]C(θ)=∑i​ci​[si∗​(θ)−μi​+Bi​(si∗​(θ))].

Formalization targets

Goal: the Lagrangian stock levels solve Problem 4

For every θ>0\theta > 0θ>0, each si∗(θ)s_i^*(\theta)si∗​(θ) exists and

∑ici [si−μi+Bi(si)]≤C(θ) ⟹ ∑iBi(si∗(θ))≤∑iBi(si)\sum_i c_i\,[s_i - \mu_i + B_i(s_i)] \le C(\theta) \ \Longrightarrow\ \sum_i B_i(s_i^*(\theta)) \le \sum_i B_i(s_i)i∑​ci​[si​−μi​+Bi​(si​)]≤C(θ) ⟹ i∑​Bi​(si∗​(θ))≤i∑​Bi​(si​)

for every vector sss of nonnegative integer stock levels. That is, s∗(θ)s^*(\theta)s∗(θ) is optimal for Problem 4 at budget b=C(θ)b = C(\theta)b=C(θ). This is what the book asserts by combining Theorem 10 (p. 57, with the remark on p. 58) and the criterion of p. 61, and it is the basis of its bisection algorithm (p. 63). The goal fixes no numerical constant.

Milestones

  1. Section 3.3, p. 53: ΔF(s)=p(s∣λτˉ)\Delta F(s) = p(s \mid \lambda\bar\tau)ΔF(s)=p(s∣λτˉ) and Δ2F(s)=p(s∣λτˉ) (λτˉ/(s+1)−1)\Delta^2 F(s) = p(s \mid \lambda\bar\tau)\,(\lambda\bar\tau/(s+1) - 1)Δ2F(s)=p(s∣λτˉ)(λτˉ/(s+1)−1), so under simple Poisson demand FFF is discretely concave exactly on s≥⌊λτˉ⌋s \ge \lfloor\lambda\bar\tau\rfloors≥⌊λτˉ⌋ (resp. s≥λτˉ−1s \ge \lambda\bar\tau - 1s≥λτˉ−1 for integer λτˉ\lambda\bar\tauλτˉ).
  2. Section 3.3, p. 55: ΔB(s)=−(1−R(s))\Delta B(s) = -(1 - R(s))ΔB(s)=−(1−R(s)) and Δ2B(s)=p(s+1∣λτˉ)\Delta^2 B(s) = p(s+1 \mid \lambda\bar\tau)Δ2B(s)=p(s+1∣λτˉ).
  3. Theorem 10 (Everett), p. 57.
  4. Section 3.4.2, p. 60: E[On-hand]=s−λτˉuˉ+B(s)E[\text{On-hand}] = s - \lambda\bar\tau\bar u + B(s)E[On-hand]=s−λτˉuˉ+B(s).
  5. Section 3.4.2, p. 61: the least sss with R(s)≥1/(1+θc)R(s) \ge 1/(1+\theta c)R(s)≥1/(1+θc) minimizes f(s)=(1+θc)B(s)+θcsf(s) = (1 + \theta c)B(s) + \theta c sf(s)=(1+θc)B(s)+θcs.
  6. Section 3.4.2, p. 61: s∗(θ)s^*(\theta)s∗(θ) and C(θ)C(\theta)C(θ) are nonincreasing in θ\thetaθ.
  7. Section 3.4.2, p. 63: at θmax⁡=max⁡ici−1(1/p(0∣μi)−1)\theta_{\max} = \max_i c_i^{-1}(1/p(0 \mid \mu_i) - 1)θmax​=maxi​ci−1​(1/p(0∣μi​)−1) every si∗(θmax⁡)=0s_i^*(\theta_{\max}) = 0si∗​(θmax​)=0.
  8. Section 3.4.3, p. 65: every solution produced by the greedy marginal-analysis rule for Problem 5 (3.41), maximum average fill rate subject to ∑icisi≤b\sum_i c_i s_i \le b∑i​ci​si​≤b and si≥⌊λiτˉi⌋s_i \ge \lfloor\lambda_i\bar\tau_i\rfloorsi​≥⌊λi​τˉi​⌋, is optimal at the budget it uses.

Significance

The goal reduces a coupled integer program over thousands of items to one scalar search: for a fixed multiplier each item is solved by a single scan of its distribution function, and each multiplier yields a point on the exact efficient frontier of expected backorders against investment. Milestone 8 does the same for fill rates on the region where they are concave, and milestone 1 explains why that region, s≥⌊λτˉ⌋s \ge \lfloor\lambda\bar\tau\rfloors≥⌊λτˉ⌋, is imposed in practice. Milestone 4 is the identity that turns an investment budget into the constraint of Problem 4.

All results are proved in the book (Theorem 10 with a complete proof; the others by short derivations, the greedy optimality by a sketch). None of them is formalized, as far as the platform shows: there is no Everett-type Lagrangian sufficiency theorem, no compound Poisson backorder function, and no discrete marginal-analysis optimality result. The mission produces a reusable layer for later chapters: the compound Poisson steady-state law with its backorder function, and the Lagrangian machinery the book reuses for multi-echelon systems.

Difficulty

The algebra of first differences is elementary; the difficulties are elsewhere. B(s)B(s)B(s) is an infinite series whose convergence rests on the finiteness of the mean order size, and exchanging the difference with the sum, and identifying ∑xx p(x∣λτˉ)\sum_x x\,p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)∑x​xp(x∣λτˉ) with λτˉuˉ\lambda\bar\tau\bar uλτˉuˉ, requires manipulating a doubly infinite sum over order counts and convolution powers. Existence of s∗(θ)s^*(\theta)s∗(θ) requires that the compound Poisson probabilities sum to one. For milestone 8 the obvious argument ("greedy is optimal for concave separable objectives") fails for knapsack constraints with unequal costs at arbitrary budgets; it holds only at the budgets the greedy run generates, and only on the region where every FiF_iFi​ is concave; dropping the floor constraints si≥⌊λiτˉi⌋s_i \ge \lfloor\lambda_i\bar\tau_i\rfloorsi​≥⌊λi​τˉi​⌋ makes it false.

Formalization scope

Stock levels are natural numbers; probabilities, rates, costs and multipliers are reals. The compound Poisson law is a structure with fields λ,τˉ>0\lambda, \bar\tau > 0λ,τˉ>0, an order-size distribution uuu with u0=0u_0 = 0u0​=0, uj≥0u_j \ge 0uj​≥0, ∑juj=1\sum_j u_j = 1∑j​uj​=1, and summable jujj u_jjuj​ (the finite mean is added: without it BBB is infinite). Expected on-hand inventory is the finite sum E[(s−X)+]E[(s - X)^+]E[(s−X)+]. Items are indexed by an arbitrary finite type (nonempty where a maximum over items is taken).

Pinnings and deviations, each stated in the item's Formalization Note:

  • θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 and c>0c > 0c>0. The book allows θ≥0\theta \ge 0θ≥0 in (3.38); at θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 the threshold 111 is never reached and f=Bf = Bf=B has no minimizer.
  • Theorem 10 without convexity and for an arbitrary set SSS: the book assumes f,gf, gf,g convex, but its proof does not use it and the applications are to integer vectors (labelled generalization).
  • BBB's identities for compound Poisson demand. The book derives them under simple Poisson demand and uses them for compound demand on p. 61; strict convexity and strict decrease are stated only for simple Poisson demand, as in the book.
  • Optimality is always against every feasible vector, never an infimum; the greedy procedure is a relation on sequences, covering every tie-breaking rule.
  • Problem 5 keeps the constraints si≥⌊λiτˉi⌋s_i \ge \lfloor\lambda_i\bar\tau_i\rfloorsi​≥⌊λi​τˉi​⌋.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is stated for the book's own backorder function BBB built from the compound Poisson law, not for an arbitrary convex function nor for a BBB defined through its differences.

Welcome contributions: summability and normalization lemmas for the compound Poisson law, a general discrete Lagrangian lemma for separable objectives, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 3, pp. 47–65. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • H. Everett III, Generalized Lagrange multiplier method for solving problems of optimum allocation of resources, Operations Research 11(3):399–417, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.3.399
  • B. L. Fox and D. M. Landi, Searching for the multiplier in one-constraint optimization problems, Operations Research 18(2):253–262, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.18.2.253
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, The (s−1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand, Management Science 12(5):391–411, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
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Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VII: Palm's Theorem for Nonstationary DemandTextbook

Motivation

Spare-parts inventory models for repairable items rest on Palm's theorem: if demands arrive as a Poisson process with constant rate λ\lambdaλ and each demanded unit spends an independent, identically distributed resupply time with mean τˉ\bar\tauτˉ in the pipeline, the number of units in resupply is Poisson with mean λτˉ\lambda\bar\tauλτˉ in steady state. Stock levels, backorders and fill rates are all computed from that distribution.

Both assumptions fail in practice. Military flying programmes ramp up and down within weeks, repair shops close for periods, and commercial parts distribution centres see demand that varies by day of the week. Chapter 9 of Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) extends Palm's theorem to a nonstationary Poisson demand process with time-dependent resupply-time distributions, gives the compound (multi-unit order) version, and uses the result to compute, at any time ttt, the distribution of units in repair at the depot of a two-echelon system.

Timeline: Palm (1938) proved the stationary result for telephone traffic; Feeney and Sherbrooke (1966) extended it to compound Poisson demand; Hillestad and Carrillo (RAND, 1980) and Crawford (RAND, 1981) developed the time-dependent extensions, summarized by Carrillo (RAND, 1989). The chapter presents these results.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location, and every demand is for one unit.

  • Demand rate λ(s)≥0\lambda(s) \ge 0λ(s)≥0, integrable on bounded intervals, with mean function m(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsm(t) = \int_0^t \lambda(s)\,dsm(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.
  • Demand process: a nonstationary Poisson process with mean function mmm, with N(0)=0N(0) = 0N(0)=0. N(t)N(t)N(t) counts demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] and T0<T1<⋯T_0 < T_1 < \cdotsT0​<T1​<⋯ are the demand epochs.
  • Resupply times: a unit demanded at time sss is resupplied within www time units with probability Gs(w)G_s(w)Gs​(w). Resupply times are nonnegative, have finite expectations, are independent from unit to unit, and are independent of the demand process.
  • X(t)X(t)X(t) is the number of units in resupply at time ttt: demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] whose resupply is not complete at ttt.

The mean of X(t)X(t)X(t) is

α(t)=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s) ds.\alpha(t) = \int_0^t \bigl(1 - G_s(t-s)\bigr)\lambda(s)\,ds.α(t)=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)ds.

In the compound version (Section 9.2), orders arrive as above and each order is for Q≥1Q \ge 1Q≥1 units, with a time-stationary law uj=P(Q=j)u_j = P(Q = j)uj​=P(Q=j). All units of an order share its resupply time, Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) counts units demanded in [0,t][0,t][0,t], and uk(n)u^{(n)}_kuk(n)​ is the nnn-fold convolution of (uj)(u_j)(uj​).

In the two-echelon version (Section 9.3), base iii has failure rate λi\lambda_iλi​. A failure is repaired at the base with probability rir_iri​ and at the depot otherwise. Depot repair of a failure occurring at time uuu takes a deterministic time D(u)D(u)D(u) with D(t)+t≥D(s)+sD(t) + t \ge D(s) + sD(t)+t≥D(s)+s for s<ts < ts<t (no crossing). Write t~=inf⁡{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}\tilde t = \inf\{u \ge 0 : D(u) + u > t\}t~=inf{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 13 (p. 216)

For every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

P{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)α(t)kk!,k=0,1,2,…P\{X(t) = k\} = e^{-\alpha(t)}\frac{\alpha(t)^k}{k!}, \qquad k = 0,1,2,\dotsP{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)k!α(t)k​,k=0,1,2,…

This is an exact statement at each finite time, not a limit. With constant λ\lambdaλ and Gs=GG_s = GGs​=G it reduces to the finite-time step of Palm's theorem.

Milestones

  1. E[N(t)]=m(t)E[N(t)] = m(t)E[N(t)]=m(t) (Section 9.1, p. 216).
  2. Theorem 12 (p. 216): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the epochs T0,…,Tn−1T_0, \dots, T_{n-1}T0​,…,Tn−1​ are distributed as the order statistics of nnn i.i.d. variables with distribution function F(x)=m(x)/m(t)F(x) = m(x)/m(t)F(x)=m(x)/m(t) on [0,t)[0,t)[0,t).
  3. The binomial step of the proof of Theorem 13 (pp. 216–217): P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(nk)pk(1−p)n−kP\{X(t) = k \mid N(t) = n\} = \binom nk p^k(1-p)^{n-k}P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(kn​)pk(1−p)n−k, with p=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s)/m(t) dsp = \int_0^t (1 - G_s(t-s))\lambda(s)/m(t)\,dsp=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)/m(t)ds.
  4. Section 9.2 (p. 218): E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q] and Var⁡[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2]\operatorname{Var}[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q^2]Var[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2].
  5. Theorem 14 (p. 218): P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1uk(n)e−α(t)α(t)n/n!P[X(t) = k] = \sum_{n\ge1} u^{(n)}_k e^{-\alpha(t)}\alpha(t)^n/n!P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1​uk(n)​e−α(t)α(t)n/n! for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, and e−α(t)e^{-\alpha(t)}e−α(t) at k=0k = 0k=0.
  6. Section 9.3.2 (p. 221): P{X0(t)=k}=e−m0(t~,t)m0(t~,t)k/k!P\{X_0(t) = k\} = e^{-m_0(\tilde t,t)} m_0(\tilde t,t)^k/k!P{X0​(t)=k}=e−m0​(t~,t)m0​(t~,t)k/k! with m0(t~,t)=∫t~t∑iλi(u)(1−ri) dum_0(\tilde t,t) = \int_{\tilde t}^t \sum_i \lambda_i(u)(1-r_i)\,dum0​(t~,t)=∫t~t​∑i​λi​(u)(1−ri​)du.

A plain supporting item states that N(t)N(t)N(t) is Poisson with mean m(t)m(t)m(t), the factor the proof of Theorem 13 uses.

Significance

Theorem 13 gives the full distribution of the pipeline at every instant. Time-dependent expected backorders, ∑x>s(t)(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}\sum_{x > s(t)} (x - s(t)) P\{X(t) = x\}∑x>s(t)​(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}, and fill rates P{X(t)<s(t)}P\{X(t) < s(t)\}P{X(t)<s(t)} follow from it, so stock levels can be planned against a surge or a repair outage without a steady-state approximation. Theorem 14 does the same for multi-unit orders. The depot result feeds the base-level convolution of Section 9.3.3, which in turn gives time-dependent performance measures for a two-echelon system.

These results are proved in the literature, and the chapter reproduces the proofs of Theorems 13 and 14. It cites Theorem 12 without proof ("similar to the one given in Chapter 3"). No machine-checked version of any of them is known, and neither Mathlib nor this platform has a Poisson process, stationary or not, a thinning theorem, or an order-statistics theorem. The formal content of this mission therefore includes the construction and the first distributional facts of the nonstationary Poisson process.

Difficulty

The algebra of the proof is a Poisson mixture of binomials and is short. The difficulty is Theorem 12 and its use. The obvious argument treats "the nnn demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t]" as nnn independent draws from FFF and assigns each an independent resupply time with law GdrawG_{\text{draw}}Gdraw​. Making this rigorous requires identifying the conditional joint law of the epochs given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n. The resupply time of the jjj-th demand is not independent of its epoch: its law depends on the epoch. So it must be shown that, after conditioning, the marks attached to sorted epochs behave like marks attached to unsorted i.i.d. draws. The book's constant-rate argument (Chapter 3) uses the uniform density n!/tnn!/t^nn!/tn on the simplex. Here the density involves λ\lambdaλ, which may vanish on intervals, and mmm need not be invertible.

Formalization scope

  • Demand process. The nonstationary Poisson process is constructed, not postulated. With i.i.d. exponential(1) gaps and unit-rate points Γk=A0+⋯+Ak\Gamma_k = A_0 + \cdots + A_kΓk​=A0​+⋯+Ak​, the kkk-th demand occurs at Tk=inf⁡{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk}T_k = \inf\{s \ge 0 : m(s) \ge \Gamma_k\}Tk​=inf{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk​}, and N(t)=#{k:Γk≤m(t)}N(t) = \#\{k : \Gamma_k \le m(t)\}N(t)=#{k:Γk​≤m(t)}.
  • Resupply times. Resupply times are ρ(Tk,Uk)\rho(T_k, U_k)ρ(Tk​,Uk​) for a jointly measurable ρ≥0\rho \ge 0ρ≥0 and i.i.d. marks UkU_kUk​ independent of the gaps, with Gs(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}G_s(w) = \nu\{\rho(s,\cdot) \le w\}Gs​(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}. Every measurable family GsG_sGs​ arises this way, and joint measurability makes α(t)\alpha(t)α(t) a genuine integral. Independence of resupply times from the demand process is not written in Theorem 12 or 13 but is used in the proof; it is part of the model.
  • Pinnings and conventions.
    • "λ\lambdaλ integrable" is read as integrable on bounded intervals.
    • Time is t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
    • Theorem 12 assumes m(t)>0m(t) > 0m(t)>0, since FFF is 0/00/00/0 otherwise, and sets F=0F = 0F=0 on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0).
    • Conditional probabilities are written as joint probabilities.
    • E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)] is stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the variance identity assumes E[Q2]<∞E[Q^2] < \inftyE[Q2]<∞.
    • t~\tilde tt~ is an infimum over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0, and D≥0D \ge 0D≥0.
    • Counts are cardinalities, and are 000 on the null event where they would be infinite.
  • Corrections. Theorem 14's printed sum starts at n=1n = 1n=1, which gives P[X(t)=0]=0P[X(t) = 0] = 0P[X(t)=0]=0. The statement keeps the book's formula for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and adds P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t)P[X(t) = 0] = e^{-\alpha(t)}P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t). The depot's Poisson demand stream with rate ∑iλi(1−ri)\sum_i \lambda_i(1-r_i)∑i​λi​(1−ri​) is generated from the bases' processes and independent repair-location choices, not assumed.
  • Not stated.
    • Eqs. (9.1)–(9.2), the FCFS depot backorders owed to base iii: the derivation on p. 221 is informal, and (9.1) prints the exponent s0(t−1)s_0(t-1)s0​(t−1) for s0(t)−1s_0(t)-1s0​(t)−1.
    • The base analysis of Section 9.3.3.
    • The compound law of Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) on p. 217, which has the same n=0n = 0n=0 omission.
  • Trivialization ruled out. X(t)X(t)X(t) is computed from the demand epochs and resupply times, not defined by its law, and resupply times cannot depend on the demand epochs except through the prescribed GsG_sGs​. Either shortcut would make the goal empty or false.
  • Infrastructure. The time-changed Poisson construction, its count law, the order-statistics property and marked thinning are reusable well beyond this chapter: in queueing (Mt/Gt/∞M_t/G_t/\inftyMt​/Gt​/∞), in reliability, and in the stationary Palm mission of this series. Contributions of these general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 9, pp. 215–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • C. Palm, "Analysis of the Erlang traffic formulae for busy-signal arrangements", Ericsson Technics 5, 1938, 39–58.
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, "The (s−1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand", Management Science 12(5), 1966, 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
  • R. J. Hillestad and M. J. Carrillo, Models and techniques for recoverable item stockage when demand and the repair processes are nonstationary — Part I: Performance measurement, Report N-1482-AF, RAND Corporation, 1980.
  • G. B. Crawford, Palm's theorem for nonstationary processes, Report R-2750-RC, RAND Corporation, 1981.
  • M. J. Carrillo, Generalizations of Palm's theorem and Dyna-METRIC's demand and pipeline variability, Report R-3698-AF, RAND Corporation, 1989.
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior V: All Solutions of the Essential Zero-Sum Three-Person GameTextbook

Motivation

The solution concept of von Neumann and Morgenstern — today usually called a stable set — was the first general answer to the question of what a rational outcome of a many-player cooperative game should be. It was introduced in Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944), and Chapter VI of that book states it exactly (§30) and then tests it on the smallest nontrivial case: the essential zero-sum three-person game (§32). The complete determination of all solutions of that game, (32:A)–(32:B) on p. 288, is the book's first full answer to "what are all the solutions of a given game?", and it is the result that made visible the two features every later discussion of stable sets has had to address: a game can have many solutions, and a solution can be an infinite set of imputations that discriminates against one player.

Stable sets remain an active topic in cooperative game theory: Lucas (1968) showed that some games have no stable set, and the literature on existence, uniqueness and structure (for example Shapley 1971 on convex games, whose core is the unique stable set) builds on the definitions formalized here.

Setting

A zero-sum nnn-person game with players I={1,…,n}I = \{1, \dots, n\}I={1,…,n} is described by its characteristic function v(S)v(S)v(S), a real number for each set S⊆IS \subseteq IS⊆I of players, satisfying (25:3:a)–(25:3:c):

v(⊖)=0,v(−S)=−v(S),v(S∪T)≧v(S)+v(T)  for S∩T=⊖.v(\ominus) = 0,\qquad v(-S) = -v(S),\qquad v(S \cup T) \geqq v(S) + v(T)\ \text{ for } S \cap T = \ominus .v(⊖)=0,v(−S)=−v(S),v(S∪T)≧v(S)+v(T)  for S∩T=⊖.

An imputation is a vector α⃗={α1,…,αn}\vec\alpha = \{\alpha_1, \dots, \alpha_n\}α={α1​,…,αn​} with αi≧v((i))\alpha_i \geqq v((i))αi​≧v((i)) for each player and ∑iαi=0\sum_i \alpha_i = 0∑i​αi​=0 (30:1), (30:2). A set SSS is effective for α⃗\vec\alphaα if ∑i∈Sαi≦v(S)\sum_{i \in S} \alpha_i \leqq v(S)∑i∈S​αi​≦v(S) (30:3). An imputation α⃗\vec\alphaα dominates β⃗\vec\betaβ​, α⃗≻β⃗\vec\alpha \succ \vec\betaα≻β​, if some nonempty set SSS is effective for α⃗\vec\alphaα and αi>βi\alpha_i > \beta_iαi​>βi​ for all i∈Si \in Si∈S (30:4). A solution is a set VVV of imputations such that no element of VVV dominates another element of VVV (30:5:a) and every imputation outside VVV is dominated by some element of VVV (30:5:b).

Two characteristic functions v,v′v, v'v,v′ are strategically equivalent if v′(S)=v(S)+∑k∈Sαk0v'(S) = v(S) + \sum_{k\in S}\alpha^0_kv′(S)=v(S)+∑k∈S​αk0​ for constants with ∑kαk0=0\sum_k \alpha^0_k = 0∑k​αk0​=0 (27:1), (27:2). Every vvv is strategically equivalent to exactly one reduced function vˉ\bar vvˉ (27:A); the game is inessential if vˉ≡0\bar v \equiv 0vˉ≡0 and essential otherwise (27.3).

For three players, an essential game in reduced form with the unit chosen so that γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 has

(32:1)v(S)=0, −1, 1, 0when S has 0,1,2,3 elements,\text{(32:1)}\qquad v(S) = 0,\ -1,\ 1,\ 0 \quad\text{when } S \text{ has } 0, 1, 2, 3 \text{ elements},(32:1)v(S)=0, −1, 1, 0when S has 0,1,2,3 elements,

and its imputations are the points of the fundamental triangle α1,α2,α3≧−1\alpha_1, \alpha_2, \alpha_3 \geqq -1α1​,α2​,α3​≧−1, α1+α2+α3=0\alpha_1 + \alpha_2 + \alpha_3 = 0α1​+α2​+α3​=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: the complete list of solutions, (32:A) + (32:B)

For the game (32:1), a set VVV is a solution if and only if either

V={{−1,12,12}, {12,−1,12}, {12,12,−1}}(32:6), (32:B)V = \bigl\{\{-1, \tfrac12, \tfrac12\},\ \{\tfrac12, -1, \tfrac12\},\ \{\tfrac12, \tfrac12, -1\}\bigr\}\qquad\text{(32:6), (32:B)}V={{−1,21​,21​}, {21​,−1,21​}, {21​,21​,−1}}(32:6), (32:B)

or, for some player iii and some ccc with

−1≦c<12(32:8),-1 \leqq c < \tfrac12 \qquad\text{(32:8)},−1≦c<21​(32:8),

VVV is the set of all imputations with αi=c\alpha_i = cαi​=c ((32:7), (32:7*), (32:7**), (32:A)). Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones

For general nnn (§31): domination is irreflexive (31:K); an inessential game has exactly one imputation and an essential game infinitely many (31:I); solutions are never empty (31:J); in an essential game every imputation is dominated by one it does not dominate (31:L); an undominated imputation exists iff the game is inessential (31:M); a one-element solution exists iff the game is inessential, and it is then the only solution (31:P); strategic equivalence induces an isomorphism of imputations, effective sets, domination and solutions (31:Q).

For the three-person game (§32): domination is the coordinate condition (32:4) on two of the three players; two mutually undominated imputations agree in one coordinate (32:5); the set (32:6) is a solution (32:B); every set (32:7) with ccc in the range (32:8) is a solution (32:A).

Significance

The goal is the first complete classification of the stable sets of a game. It shows that solutions are not unique and need not be finite: next to the symmetric three-point solution there is a one-parameter family, for each of the three players, of solutions that fix that player's payoff at ccc and let the other two bargain freely. The book's interpretation of these "discriminatory" solutions (§33) as standards of behaviour is one of the lasting ideas of the theory. The general-nnn results of §31 fix the trivial case completely: an inessential game has a unique, one-point solution, so every essential game has only solutions with at least two elements and an empty core. (31:Q) justifies working with reduced forms throughout the later chapters.

The results are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof on the platform as of this writing. The existing stable-set definitions on the platform concern feasible payoff vectors a(N)≦v(N)a(N) \leqq v(N)a(N)≦v(N) of a superadditive game, not imputations of a zero-sum game, so this mission also provides the book's definitions in the form every later chapter of the series (decomposition, simple games, general games) uses.

Difficulty

The "if" direction of the goal is a finite case analysis per set, but (30:5:b) must be checked for every imputation outside the set, with the dominating element chosen as a function of it. The "only if" direction is the substance: from an arbitrary solution — a possibly infinite, a priori unstructured subset of the triangle — one must derive that it is exactly one of the listed sets. The book's argument is geometric (Figures 54–60) and leans on pictures of dominated regions; the delicate points are the exclusion of the limiting position c=12c = \tfrac12c=21​, where a single point of the triangle stays undominated, and the proof that a solution with two points on a horizontal line and one point off it must be exactly (32:6). The endpoint c=−1c = -1c=−1 is included and must be handled; the endpoint c=12c = \tfrac12c=21​ is excluded and must be refuted.

Formalization scope

Players are Fin n (the book's player iii is index i−1i-1i−1; for three players 1,2,31, 2, 31,2,3 are 0, 1, 2), coalitions are Finset (Fin n), characteristic functions are Finset (Fin n) → ℝ, imputations are vectors Fin n → ℝ. The domination relation is defined on all vectors but every statement restricts it to imputations; solutions are sets of imputations and (30:5:b) quantifies over imputations only.

Standing hypotheses instantiated in the statements:

  • every general-nnn result of §31 assumes that vvv satisfies (25:3:a)–(25:3:c) (IsCharFunction v), the book's standing assumption for "a zero-sum nnn-person game";
  • "inessential" is the book's definition (reduced form identically 000, 27.3.1), not the criterion (27:B); "essential" is its negation;
  • the three-person results are stated for the reduced form (32:1) with γ=1\gamma = 1γ=1 exactly, as in §32; the transfer to arbitrary essential three-person games via (31:Q) and the choice of unit is not part of the goal;
  • the range of ccc is the half-open interval (32:8).

Domination requires all three clauses of (30:4): dropping "SSS not empty" makes every imputation dominate every other through S=⊖S = \ominusS=⊖ and turns the goal into a statement about the empty solution; the definitions keep all three. The general-nnn statements carry the characteristic-function hypotheses because without them a set function with no imputation has the empty set as a vacuous solution.

The dimension claim "an (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-dimensional continuum" in (31:I) is not formalized; only "infinitely many imputations" is. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of the transfer of the goal to all essential three-person games through (31:Q), and reusable lemmas on domination via two-element coalitions.

Selected references

  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 60th-anniversary edition, Princeton University Press, 2007 (reprint of the 3rd edition, 1953), §§25–27, 30–32. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
  • W. F. Lucas, A game with no solution, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 74 (1968), 237–239. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1968-11901-9
  • L. S. Shapley, Cores of convex games, International Journal of Game Theory 1 (1971), 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753431
16 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems V: The Average Cost Optimality Equation and Value Iteration for Finite State SpacesTextbook

Motivation

Average cost Markov decision chains model systems that run indefinitely and are judged by their long-run cost per step: admission and routing control in queues, inventory replenishment, machine maintenance. For a finite state space the classical tool is the average cost optimality equation (ACOE)

J+h(i)=min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a) h(j)},J + h(i) = \min_{a \in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a)\,h(j)\Big\},J+h(i)=a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},

whose solution gives both the minimum average cost JJJ and an optimal stationary policy. To be useful the equation has to be solved numerically, and the method used in practice is value iteration: compute the minimum nnn-horizon costs vnv_nvn​ and extract JJJ and hhh from their growth. This mission formalizes Sections 6.4–6.6 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, doi:10.1002/9780470317037): when the minimum average cost is constant, the ACOE holds, any solution of it is optimal, and value iteration converges, provided the optimal policies are aperiodic. When they are not, a transformation of the model makes them so.

Related classical work includes Blackwell's discrete dynamic programming (1962) and Schweitzer–Federgruen's analysis of undiscounted value iteration (1977); Sennott's treatment derives the ACOE from the discounted value function VαV_\alphaVα​ as α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1−, which is the route that extends to countable state spaces in later chapters of the book.

Setting

A Markov decision chain (MDC) Δ\DeltaΔ has a finite state space SSS; in each state iii a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​; nonnegative costs C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a); and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may use the whole history and randomize; a stationary policy eee always chooses e(i)∈Aie(i) \in A_ie(i)∈Ai​ in state iii and induces a Markov chain with transitions Pij(e)=Pij(e(i))P_{ij}(e) = P_{ij}(e(i))Pij​(e)=Pij​(e(i)).

For a policy θ\thetaθ and initial state iii: vθ,n(i)v_{\theta,n}(i)vθ,n​(i) is the expected cost of the first nnn steps, Vθ,α(i)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vθ,α​(i) the expected α\alphaα-discounted cost, and Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡nvθ,n(i)/nJ_\theta(i) = \limsup_n v_{\theta,n}(i)/nJθ​(i)=limsupn​vθ,n​(i)/n the average cost. The value functions are the infima over all policies: vnv_nvn​, VαV_\alphaVα​ and the minimum average cost J(i)J(i)J(i). A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta \equiv JJθ​≡J.

Section 6.2 of the book provides a stationary policy fff that is α\alphaα discount optimal for all α\alphaα close to 111 (a Blackwell optimal policy), and Section 6.3 builds from it a relative value function w∗w^*w∗. For a distinguished state zzz put

hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z),h(i)=lim⁡α→1−hα(i),dn(i)=h(i)+nJ−vn(i).h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z), \qquad h(i) = \lim_{\alpha\to1^-} h_\alpha(i), \qquad d_n(i) = h(i) + nJ - v_n(i).hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z),h(i)=α→1−lim​hα​(i),dn​(i)=h(i)+nJ−vn​(i).

For a distinguished state xxx the finite horizon relative value function is rn(i)=vn(i)−vn(x)r_n(i) = v_n(i) - v_n(x)rn​(i)=vn​(i)−vn​(x).

A positive recurrent class RRR of a Markov chain is aperiodic if Pij(n)→πjP^{(n)}_{ij} \to \pi_jPij(n)​→πj​ for i,j∈Ri, j \in Ri,j∈R, where π\piπ is the steady state distribution. Assumption OPA ("optimal policies are aperiodic") requires every positive recurrent class of every average cost optimal stationary policy to be aperiodic. The aperiodicity transformation Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ with 0<τ<10<\tau<10<τ<1 keeps states and actions, scales costs by τ\tauτ, and sets Pij∗(a)=τPij(a)P^*_{ij}(a) = \tau P_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a)=τPij​(a) for j≠ij \ne ij=i, Pii∗(a)=τPii(a)+(1−τ)P^*_{ii}(a) = \tau P_{ii}(a) + (1-\tau)Pii∗​(a)=τPii​(a)+(1−τ).

Formalization targets

Goal: convergence of value iteration (Proposition 6.6.3)

If J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J and Assumption OPA holds, then for any distinguished state xxx

lim⁡n→∞[vn(x)−vn−1(x)]=J,lim⁡n→∞rn(i)=:r(i) exists,\lim_{n\to\infty}[v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)] = J, \qquad \lim_{n\to\infty} r_n(i) =: r(i) \text{ exists},n→∞lim​[vn​(x)−vn−1​(x)]=J,n→∞lim​rn​(i)=:r(i) exists,

(J,r)(J, r)(J,r) solves the ACOE, and every limit point of the finite horizon optimal stationary policies is average cost optimal.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 6.4.1: unichain structure, bounded ∣Vα(i)−Vα(z)∣|V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)|∣Vα​(i)−Vα​(z)∣, or pairwise reachability imply J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J, with the implication diagram (6.26).
  2. Theorem 6.4.2: under J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J, hhh exists, solves the ACOE (6.31), yields optimal policies, ∣dn∣≤L|d_n| \le L∣dn​∣≤L and vn/n→Jv_n/n \to Jvn​/n→J.
  3. Proposition 6.5.1: any finite solution (F,r)(F, r)(F,r) of the ACOE (or of the inequality (6.36)) gives J≡FJ \equiv FJ≡F and optimal policies, and differs from hhh by constants on recurrent classes.
  4. Lemma 6.6.2: on an aperiodic positive recurrent class of an optimal policy, dnd_ndn​ converges to a constant.
  5. Lemma 6.6.5 and Proposition 6.6.6: Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ has the same recurrent classes and steady states, all of them aperiodic, costs scaled by τ\tauτ; value iteration on Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ produces a solution (J∗/τ,r∗)(J^*/\tau, r^*)(J∗/τ,r∗) of the ACOE of Δ\DeltaΔ.

Significance

The ACOE with constant JJJ is the standard certificate of optimality for finite average cost models, and Proposition 6.5.1 is what allows any numerical solution of it to be trusted. Proposition 6.6.3 is the correctness theorem of the value iteration algorithm (VIA 6.6.4 of the book), and Proposition 6.6.6 removes its one extra hypothesis at the price of a model transformation. Chapter 8 of the book runs this algorithm on a sequence of finite truncations to compute optimal policies for countable-state queueing models, so these results are the base of the book's computational method.

All results in this mission are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof. Existing formalizations on the platform treat average reward models under a unichain hypothesis with a single action set type; this mission assumes only a constant minimum average cost (multichain models allowed) and uses the general policy class throughout.

Difficulty

The ACOE itself is not the obstacle; convergence of vn(x)−vn−1(x)v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)vn​(x)−vn−1​(x) is. Theorem 6.4.2 bounds dnd_ndn​ but does not make it converge, and Example 6.6.1 of the book (a two-state periodic chain) shows that without aperiodicity vn(x)−vn−1(x)v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)vn​(x)−vn−1​(x) oscillates. The naive argument, passing to the limit in the finite horizon optimality equation, assumes the limits exist, which is exactly what is in question. Chain structure is the obstruction: a multichain optimal policy has several recurrent classes, and the Cesàro-type convergence that suffices for the ACOE itself is weaker than the pointwise convergence value iteration needs. The policy statement is also delicate, since the finite horizon minimizers fnf_nfn​ need not converge.

Formalization scope

  • The state type S is finite ([Fintype S]); actions are a type Act with per-state nonempty Finset action sets. Costs are in ℝ≥0, transition probabilities in ℝ≥0∞, and all value functions are defined in [0,∞] as infima over all history-dependent randomized policies, then converted to ℝ (they are finite for finite SSS).
  • JJJ constant is stated as J(i)=JJ(i) = JJ(i)=J for all iii, with J∈R≥0J \in \mathbb R_{\ge 0}J∈R≥0​. The relative value hhh is defined as the limit α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1− of hαh_\alphahα​, not taken as an arbitrary solution of the ACOE; Theorem 6.4.2(i) asserts the limit exists. The Blackwell optimal policy fff enters as a hypothesis: any stationary policy discount optimal on an interval (α0,1)(\alpha_0,1)(α0​,1).
  • min_a is Finset.inf' over AiA_iAi​. Limit points of policy sequences follow Definition B.1 (a subsequence agreeing eventually in every state). Finite horizon optimal policies fnf_nfn​ are any minimizers of vn(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)vn−1(j)}v_n(i) = \min_a\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a) v_{n-1}(j)\}vn​(i)=mina​{C(i,a)+∑j​Pij​(a)vn−1​(j)}.
  • Aperiodicity of a class is the book's definition (Pij(n)→πjP^{(n)}_{ij} \to \pi_jPij(n)​→πj​ on the class), with πj=1/mjj\pi_j = 1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​. Assumption OPA quantifies over average cost optimal stationary policies only, not over all stationary policies.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: hhh, rnr_nrn​, dnd_ndn​ and vnv_nvn​ are computed from the model, not free functions constrained by the ACOE, and the ACOE conclusions are equalities of real numbers with the minimum over the actual action sets.
  • The model, criteria and Markov chain definitions restate those of mission IV of this series in their own namespace; they are reusable for any finite average cost result. Contributions of general Markov chain facts (convergence of P(n)P^{(n)}P(n) on aperiodic classes, Cesàro limits 1n∑tP(t)\frac1n\sum_t P^{(t)}n1​∑t​P(t)) are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1962), 719–726. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • P. J. Schweitzer and A. Federgruen, The asymptotic behavior of undiscounted value iteration in Markov decision problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 2 (1977), 360–381. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2.4.360
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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