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Algorithmic Game Theory

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Operations ResearchOptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments IV: Uniform Pricing Earns OPT/(1 + ln(v_m/v_1)) in Unit-Demand Min-PricingResearch Paper

Pricing with unit-demand consumers

A seller with nnn distinct items faces mmm consumers, each of whom wants at most one item. Choosing item prices to maximise revenue in this setting is the unit-demand envy-free pricing problem, introduced by Rusmevichientong and studied in algorithmic game theory and revenue management since the mid-2000s. Optimal prices are hard to compute in general, so the guarantees of simple pricing rules matter. The simplest such rule is uniform pricing: put one price qqq on every item and choose qqq to maximise revenue.

Aggarwal, Feder, Motwani and Zhu (ICALP 2004) and Guruswami, Hartline, Karlin, Kempe, Kenyon and McSherry (SODA 2005) analysed uniform pricing; in the min-buying model it recovers a 1/(1+ln⁡m)1/(1+\ln m)1/(1+lnm) fraction of the optimum, a bound Berbeglia and Joret attribute to Aggarwal et al. Berbeglia and Joret (arXiv:1606.01371, Algorithmica 2020) observed that the min-buying problem is a special case of assortment optimisation under a regular discrete choice model, and that uniform pricing then coincides with the revenue-ordered assortments heuristic. Their general guarantee for that heuristic yields a second bound for uniform pricing, in terms of the spread of the valuations rather than the number of consumers. This mission formalizes that bound (Corollary 4.7) together with the reduction it rests on (Theorem 4.6).

Setting

Unit-demand min-pricing (UDPmin⁡\mathrm{UDP}_{\min}UDPmin​). There are items [n][n][n] and consumers [m][m][m], m≥1m\ge 1m≥1. Consumer iii is interested in a set Bi⊆[n]B_i\subseteq[n]Bi​⊆[n] and has a valuation vi>0v_i>0vi​>0. Given a price assignment p:[n]→R>0p:[n]\to\mathbb R_{>0}p:[n]→R>0​, consumer iii buys a cheapest item of BiB_iBi​ if its price is at most viv_ivi​, and nothing otherwise. The seller's revenue is

revUDP(p)=∑i: Bi≠∅, min⁡x∈Bip(x)≤vi min⁡x∈Bip(x),\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{UDP}}(p)=\sum_{i:\ B_i\ne\emptyset,\ \min_{x\in B_i}p(x)\le v_i}\ \min_{x\in B_i}p(x),revUDP​(p)=i: Bi​=∅, minx∈Bi​​p(x)≤vi​∑​ x∈Bi​min​p(x),

the optimum is OPTUDP=sup⁡p>0revUDP(p)\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}=\sup_{p>0}\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{UDP}}(p)OPTUDP​=supp>0​revUDP​(p), and uniform pricing earns UP=sup⁡q>0revUDP(q,…,q)\mathrm{UP}=\sup_{q>0}\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{UDP}}(q,\dots,q)UP=supq>0​revUDP​(q,…,q). Write vmax⁡=vmv_{\max}=v_mvmax​=vm​ and vmin⁡=v1v_{\min}=v_1vmin​=v1​ for the extreme valuations.

Regular choice models. A finite product set C\mathcal CC carries choice probabilities P(x,S)\mathcal P(x,S)P(x,S) for x∈Cx\in\mathcal Cx∈C, S⊆CS\subseteq\mathcal CS⊆C, with no-purchase probability P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S). The model is regular if (i) all probabilities are nonnegative, (ii) P(x,S)=0\mathcal P(x,S)=0P(x,S)=0 for x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S, (iii) ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤1\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le1∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤1, and (iv) P(x,S)≥P(x,S′)\mathcal P(x,S)\ge\mathcal P(x,S')P(x,S)≥P(x,S′) for S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′ and every x∈S∪{0}x\in S\cup\{0\}x∈S∪{0}. With revenues r:C→R>0r:\mathcal C\to\mathbb R_{>0}r:C→R>0​, an assortment earns rev(S)=∑x∈SP(x,S)r(x)\mathrm{rev}(S)=\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)r(x)rev(S)=∑x∈S​P(x,S)r(x) and OPT=max⁡Srev(S)\mathrm{OPT}=\max_S\mathrm{rev}(S)OPT=maxS​rev(S). If r1<⋯<rkr_1<\dots<r_kr1​<⋯<rk​ are the distinct revenues and Si={x:r(x)≥ri}S_i=\{x: r(x)\ge r_i\}Si​={x:r(x)≥ri​}, revenue-ordered assortments earn RO=max⁡irev(Si)\mathrm{RO}=\max_i\mathrm{rev}(S_i)RO=maxi​rev(Si​).

The reduction. From a UDPmin⁡\mathrm{UDP}_{\min}UDPmin​ instance the paper builds C=[n]×{v1,…,vm}\mathcal C=[n]\times\{v_1,\dots,v_m\}C=[n]×{v1​,…,vm​}, r((x,v))=m vr((x,v))=m\,vr((x,v))=mv, and P=1m∑iPi\mathcal P=\frac1m\sum_i\mathcal P_iP=m1​∑i​Pi​, where Pi\mathcal P_iPi​ spreads probability one over the set Qi(S)Q_i(S)Qi​(S) of pairs (x,v)∈S(x,v)\in S(x,v)∈S with x∈Bix\in B_ix∈Bi​, v≤viv\le v_iv≤vi​ and vvv minimal among the pairs of SSS whose item lies in BiB_iBi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 4.7

OPTUDP ≤ (1+ln⁡vmax⁡vmin⁡)⋅UP.\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}\ \le\ \Big(1+\ln\frac{v_{\max}}{v_{\min}}\Big)\cdot\mathrm{UP}.OPTUDP​ ≤ (1+lnvmin​vmax​​)⋅UP.

The bound is the paper's "approximates the optimum revenue to within a factor of 1/(1+ln⁡ρ)1/(1+\ln\rho)1/(1+lnρ), ρ:=vm/v1\rho:=v_m/v_1ρ:=vm​/v1​", stated in product form.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.5. Some optimal price assignment takes only valuations as prices; in particular OPTUDP\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}OPTUDP​ is attained.
  2. Regularity of the reduction's choice model (proof of Theorem 4.6, pp. 17–18).
  3. Assortments to prices: rev(S)=revUDP(pS)\mathrm{rev}(S)=\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{UDP}}(p_S)rev(S)=revUDP​(pS​) with pS(x)=min⁡{v:(x,v)∈S}p_S(x)=\min\{v:(x,v)\in S\}pS​(x)=min{v:(x,v)∈S} (p. 19).
  4. Prices to assortments: for valuation-valued ppp, rev(Sp)=revUDP(p)\mathrm{rev}(S_p)=\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{UDP}}(p)rev(Sp​)=revUDP​(p) with Sp={(x,v):v≥p(x)}S_p=\{(x,v): v\ge p(x)\}Sp​={(x,v):v≥p(x)} (p. 19).
  5. Theorem 4.6 for the explicit instance: regularity, positive revenues, equal optima, and the two-way correspondence between threshold sets and uniform valuation prices.
  6. Theorem 3.2 for an arbitrary regular model:
OPT≤(∑i=1kri−ri−1ri)RO,∑i=1kri−ri−1ri≤1+ln⁡rkr1,r0:=0.\mathrm{OPT}\le\Big(\sum_{i=1}^k\frac{r_i-r_{i-1}}{r_i}\Big)\mathrm{RO},\qquad \sum_{i=1}^k\frac{r_i-r_{i-1}}{r_i}\le 1+\ln\frac{r_k}{r_1},\qquad r_0:=0.OPT≤(i=1∑k​ri​ri​−ri−1​​)RO,i=1∑k​ri​ri​−ri−1​​≤1+lnr1​rk​​,r0​:=0.

Significance

The corollary gives a uniform-pricing guarantee that is independent of the number of consumers and items: when valuations lie within a factor ρ\rhoρ of each other, a single price recovers a 1/(1+ln⁡ρ)1/(1+\ln\rho)1/(1+lnρ) fraction of the optimum, which improves on 1/(1+ln⁡m)1/(1+\ln m)1/(1+lnm) whenever ρ<m\rho<mρ<m. More broadly, Theorem 4.6 places UDPmin⁡\mathrm{UDP}_{\min}UDPmin​ inside the class of regular choice models, so every guarantee proved for revenue-ordered assortments under regularity transfers to uniform pricing.

All results here are proved in the paper. Nothing in this mission is formalized elsewhere as far as a search of the platform shows: there is no regular choice model, no UDPmin⁡\mathrm{UDP}_{\min}UDPmin​ problem and no revenue-ordered guarantee on Prove2Me. The mission produces the reduction as reusable infrastructure, a machine-checked version of the paper's Lemma 4.5 (whose appendix proof is an informal repair argument), and the first formal guarantee for uniform pricing.

Difficulty

The reduction is where the work sits. Regularity hinges on the no-purchase case of axiom (iv): enlarging an assortment can only make QiQ_iQi​ nonempty, never empty, and this must be checked for the specific sets Qi(S)Q_i(S)Qi​(S) whose definition depends on the whole of SSS. The revenue identities require tracking the minimum over BiB_iBi​ of a price function obtained from an assortment, including items absent from SSS, which receive the paper's "+∞+\infty+∞" price. Lemma 4.5 is needed to make the optimum of the uncountable pricing problem coincide with that of a finite assortment problem, and the statement is about a supremum over a continuum of price vectors whose attainment is not obvious. Theorem 3.2 has to relate the optimum to threshold sets of an arbitrary regular model, where products may share revenues and the optimal assortment need not be a threshold set.

The naive route of comparing uniform pricing to the optimum directly, consumer by consumer, does not give a bound in terms of vm/v1v_m/v_1vm​/v1​; the reduction to a regular model is what supplies it.

Formalization scope

  • Items and consumers are finite types X and M, with Nonempty M (m≥1m\ge1m≥1). Valuations satisfy vi>0v_i>0vi​>0 as a field of the instance; the paper says "non-negative", but its reduction (r=m v>0r=m\,v>0r=mv>0) and its ratio vm/v1v_m/v_1vm​/v1​ need positivity.
  • A consumer with Bi=∅B_i=\emptysetBi​=∅ pays 000. Ties among cheapest items do not affect payments, so payments are defined directly.
  • OPTUDP\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}OPTUDP​ and UP\mathrm{UP}UP are real suprema over positive price assignments and positive uniform prices; both index sets are nonempty and the revenues are bounded by ∑ivi\sum_i v_i∑i​vi​. Uniform pricing ranges over all q>0q>0q>0, not only valuations.
  • The no-purchase option is not a product: it is P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S), and regularity includes axiom (iv) for it. OPT is a maximum over all Finset C; RO is a maximum over the kkk threshold sets only. Distinct revenues are sorted 0-based (Fin k), with r0=0r_0=0r0​=0 handled as a separate case.
  • The paper's +∞+\infty+∞ price for pSp_SpS​ is the real 1+∑ivi1+\sum_i v_i1+∑i​vi​, which exceeds every valuation, as its Remark on p. 18 allows. The valuation set collapses equal valuations.
  • Approximation factors are in product form, OPT≤D⋅RO\mathrm{OPT}\le D\cdot\mathrm{RO}OPT≤D⋅RO; ln⁡\lnln is Real.log applied to ratios ≥1\ge1≥1.
  • Trivializing readings are excluded: Theorem 4.6 is stated for the explicit instance of its proof, not as the bare existence of a regular instance with the same optimum (a single product of revenue OPTUDP\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}OPTUDP​ would satisfy that); OPTUDP\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{UDP}}OPTUDP​ ranges over all positive price assignments, not uniform ones; valuations are positive, so no logarithm takes a junk value.
  • Theorem 3.2 is restated here for this mission's copy of the regular model; it is also the goal of mission I of this series. Reusable pieces: the regular choice model and revenue-ordered value, and the UDPmin⁡\mathrm{UDP}_{\min}UDPmin​ model. Contributions of any milestone, and alternative proofs of Lemma 4.5, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Berbeglia and G. Joret, Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments, arXiv:1606.01371v3, 2019; Algorithmica 82 (2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.01371
  • G. Aggarwal, T. Feder, R. Motwani and A. Zhu, Algorithms for multi-product pricing, ICALP 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-27836-8_8
  • V. Guruswami, J. D. Hartline, A. R. Karlin, D. Kempe, C. Kenyon and F. McSherry, On profit-maximizing envy-free pricing, SODA 2005. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/1070432.1070598
  • P. Rusmevichientong, B. Van Roy and P. W. Glynn, A nonparametric approach to multiproduct pricing, Operations Research 54(1), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0236
  • A. Aouad, V. Farias, R. Levi and D. Segev, The approximability of assortment optimization under ranking preferences, Operations Research 66(6), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1754
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On General Minimax Theorems 2: Kneser–Fan — If f Is Concave-Convexlike and u.s.c. in μ on Compact M, Then sup inf f = inf sup fResearch Paper

Motivation

A minimax theorem asserts that for a real function f(μ,ν)f(\mu,\nu)f(μ,ν) of two variables the order of optimization does not matter:

sup⁡μinf⁡νf(μ,ν)=inf⁡νsup⁡μf(μ,ν).\sup_{\mu}\inf_{\nu} f(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\nu}\sup_{\mu} f(\mu,\nu).μsup​νinf​f(μ,ν)=νinf​μsup​f(μ,ν).

In game theory it says that a two-person zero-sum game has a value; in optimization it is the engine behind Lagrangian duality, robust optimization (exchanging the decision and the adversary) and distributionally robust and online-learning bounds, where a worst case over a family of distributions is exchanged with a minimization over decisions.

Most minimax theorems require linear structure: fff concave in μ\muμ and convex in ν\nuν on convex sets. K. Fan observed that a much weaker, purely order-theoretic condition suffices, which he called concavelike and convexlike, and which makes sense on sets with no linear structure at all. This is the setting needed when the strategy sets are, for instance, sets of stopping times, of measurable policies, or of combinatorial objects whose mixtures are only "dominated" by another member of the set.

Timeline:

  • 1928 — J. von Neumann proves the minimax theorem for bilinear payoffs on simplices (finite matrix games).
  • 1952 — H. Kneser proves it for fff concave-convex on a compact convex set and a convex set, with fff upper semicontinuous in the compact variable (Kneser, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 234, 1952; reference [6] of Sion's paper).
  • 1953 — K. Fan replaces concavity-convexity by concavelikeness-convexlikeness and removes the linear structure (Fan 1953).
  • 1958 — M. Sion, in On general minimax theorems (Sion 1958), proves the quasi-concave-convex minimax theorem and, in §4, re-derives the Kneser–Fan theorem from a finite-reduction criterion (his Theorems 4.1, 4.1′, 4.2, 4.2′).

Setting

Let MMM and NNN be arbitrary sets and f:M×N→Rf:M\times N\to\mathbb Rf:M×N→R a real-valued function; μ∈M\mu\in Mμ∈M is the maximizing variable and ν∈N\nu\in Nν∈N the minimizing one.

  • fff is concavelike in MMM if for all μ1,μ2∈M\mu_1,\mu_2\in Mμ1​,μ2​∈M and 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1 there is one μ∈M\mu\in Mμ∈M with tf(μ1,ν)+(1−t)f(μ2,ν)≤f(μ,ν)t f(\mu_1,\nu)+(1-t)f(\mu_2,\nu)\le f(\mu,\nu)tf(μ1​,ν)+(1−t)f(μ2​,ν)≤f(μ,ν) for every ν∈N\nu\in Nν∈N.
  • fff is convexlike in NNN if for all ν1,ν2∈N\nu_1,\nu_2\in Nν1​,ν2​∈N and 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1 there is one ν∈N\nu\in Nν∈N with tf(μ,ν1)+(1−t)f(μ,ν2)≥f(μ,ν)t f(\mu,\nu_1)+(1-t)f(\mu,\nu_2)\ge f(\mu,\nu)tf(μ,ν1​)+(1−t)f(μ,ν2​)≥f(μ,ν) for every μ∈M\mu\in Mμ∈M.
  • fff is concave-convexlike if it is both.

In each definition the witness depends only on the two given points and on ttt, never on the point of the other space. The two values compared are the extended reals

sup⁡inf⁡f=sup⁡μ∈Minf⁡ν∈Nf(μ,ν),inf⁡sup⁡f=inf⁡ν∈Nsup⁡μ∈Mf(μ,ν),\sup\inf f=\sup_{\mu\in M}\inf_{\nu\in N}f(\mu,\nu),\qquad \inf\sup f=\inf_{\nu\in N}\sup_{\mu\in M}f(\mu,\nu),supinff=μ∈Msup​ν∈Ninf​f(μ,ν),infsupf=ν∈Ninf​μ∈Msup​f(μ,ν),

which may be ±∞\pm\infty±∞. In the Lean development these are Concavelike f, Convexlike f, ConcaveConvexlike f, supInf f and infSup f in the namespace SionMinimax.KneserFan. The inequality sup⁡inf⁡f≤inf⁡sup⁡f\sup\inf f\le\inf\sup fsupinff≤infsupf always holds; the theorems assert the reverse.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Kneser–Fan theorem (Theorem 4.2, p. 175)

If MMM is a compact topological space, fff is concave-convexlike, and μ↦f(μ,ν)\mu\mapsto f(\mu,\nu)μ↦f(μ,ν) is upper semicontinuous for each ν∈N\nu\in Nν∈N, then

sup⁡inf⁡f=inf⁡sup⁡f.\sup\inf f=\inf\sup f.supinff=infsupf.

No structure on NNN and no linear structure on MMM are assumed.

Milestones

  • Theorem 4.1′ (p. 175): if fff is concave-convexlike and for every real c>sup⁡inf⁡fc>\sup\inf fc>supinff there is a finite Y⊂NY\subset NY⊂N such that every μ∈M\mu\in Mμ∈M has some y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y with f(μ,y)<cf(\mu,y)<cf(μ,y)<c, then sup⁡inf⁡f=inf⁡sup⁡f\sup\inf f=\inf\sup fsupinff=infsupf.
  • Theorem 4.1 (p. 175): the dual criterion — for every real c<inf⁡sup⁡fc<\inf\sup fc<infsupf a finite X⊂MX\subset MX⊂M such that every ν∈N\nu\in Nν∈N has some x∈Xx\in Xx∈X with f(x,ν)>cf(x,\nu)>cf(x,ν)>c.
  • Theorem 4.2′ (p. 175): the dual of the goal — NNN compact and f(μ,⋅)f(\mu,\cdot)f(μ,⋅) lower semicontinuous for each μ\muμ.

The paper itself states that 4.2 is a special case of 4.1′, which in turn follows from the finite-dimensional minimax theorem. Sion's own minimax theorem (Theorem 3.4 and its Corollary) is already formalized on the platform as FamousTheorems.sion_minimax_theorem and is included in the mission as a reference item.

Significance

The Kneser–Fan theorem is the standard minimax theorem for settings without a natural linear structure. Its finite-reduction form (4.1, 4.1′) isolates the only place where topology enters: compactness and semicontinuity are used solely to replace NNN (or MMM) by a finite set, after which the argument is finite-dimensional. Statements of this kind are used to exchange the order of optimization in robust and distributionally robust optimization, in statistical decision theory (existence of least favourable priors, Wald's complete-class theorems) and in learning theory, where the adversary's set is a space of distributions and the learner's set is a space of hypotheses with no convex parametrization.

The theorem is classical and fully proved in the literature. No machine-checked proof of it is known in Mathlib or on the platform: Mathlib contains Sion's quasi-concave-convex theorem (Topology/Sion.lean) and the platform has the bilinear and quasi-convex cases, but neither covers concavelike-convexlike functions, which are independent of quasi-concave-convex ones. This mission produces machine-checked versions of all four §4 statements in the extended reals, including the degenerate cases where values are infinite.

Difficulty

The obvious reduction, "replace MMM by its convex hull and apply a linear minimax theorem", is unavailable: MMM and NNN are bare sets, so there is no convex hull and no mixed strategy to form. Concavelikeness only promises that a mixture of two strategies is dominated by some third strategy, and this has to be iterated to finite mixtures and combined with a separation argument in RY\mathbb R^YRY for a finite YYY.

The second difficulty is bookkeeping: the minimax values live in [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞], the threshold ccc is real, and fff may be unbounded, so every step comparing a real ccc with sup⁡inf⁡f\sup\inf fsupinff or inf⁡sup⁡f\inf\sup finfsupf must handle infinite values; a real-valued supremum would silently replace them by 000.

Formalization scope

  • MMM, NNN are arbitrary Lean types and f:M→N→Rf : M\to N\to\mathbb Rf:M→N→R. For Theorem 4.2 the type MMM carries an arbitrary topology with CompactSpace M; for 4.2′, NNN carries one with CompactSpace N. No Hausdorff, metric or linear structure is assumed.
  • "Upper (lower) semi-continuous in μ\muμ for each ν\nuν" is Mathlib's UpperSemicontinuous (fun μ => f μ ν) (resp. LowerSemicontinuous (fun ν => f μ ν)) on the whole compact space.
  • sup⁡inf⁡f\sup\inf fsupinff and inf⁡sup⁡f\inf\sup finfsupf are EReal-valued (⨆ μ, ⨅ ν, (f μ ν : EReal) and its dual); the threshold ccc in 4.1, 4.1′ is a real number compared through the coercion; the finite sets are Finsets chosen after ccc.
  • Added reading. Every statement assumes Nonempty M ∨ Nonempty N. When M=N=∅M=N=\varnothingM=N=∅ all printed hypotheses hold vacuously (take X=∅X=\varnothingX=∅ or Y=∅Y=\varnothingY=∅), yet sup⁡inf⁡f=sup⁡∅=−∞\sup\inf f=\sup\varnothing=-\inftysupinff=sup∅=−∞ and inf⁡sup⁡f=inf⁡∅=+∞\inf\sup f=\inf\varnothing=+\inftyinfsupf=inf∅=+∞, so the printed statements fail only in that corner. When exactly one of the sets is empty both sides coincide and that case is kept. No printed slip is corrected; the milestone texts are verbatim.
  • Ruled out. The concavelike/convexlike witnesses are chosen before the universally quantified point of the other space; reversing the quantifiers would make every function with pointwise maximizers concavelike and the theorems false. The definitions contain no compactness or finite-cover property, and there is no linear structure through which concavity could be substituted for concavelikeness.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs the extension of concavelikeness to finite convex combinations, a finite-dimensional separation (or a finite minimax) lemma for RY\mathbb R^YRY, and lemmas on EReal suprema of real-valued families; these are reusable for any minimax result without linear structure. Contributions proving the milestones independently, or deriving 4.1′ from the referenced Sion theorem by embedding into a simplex, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Sion, On general minimax theorems, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 8(1), 171–176, 1958. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1958.8.171
  • K. Fan, Minimax theorems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 39, 42–47, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.39.1.42
  • H. Kneser, Sur un théorème fondamental de la théorie des jeux, Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences Paris 234, 2418–2420, 1952 (cited as [6] in Sion 1958, https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1958.8.171).
  • H. Nikaidô, On von Neumann's minimax theorem, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 4, 65–72, 1954. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1954.4.65
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OptimizationTopology·Captain: mikedeng1

On General Minimax Theorems 1: For a Minimal Finite Y with Every f(·, y) Quasi-Concave and u.s.c. on Convex M, One μ₀ ∈ M Has f(μ₀, y) < c for All y ∈ YResearch Paper

Motivation

A minimax theorem asserts that, for a function f(μ,ν)f(\mu, \nu)f(μ,ν) of two variables,

sup⁡μ∈Minf⁡ν∈Nf(μ,ν)=inf⁡ν∈Nsup⁡μ∈Mf(μ,ν).\sup_{\mu \in M} \inf_{\nu \in N} f(\mu, \nu) = \inf_{\nu \in N} \sup_{\mu \in M} f(\mu, \nu).μ∈Msup​ν∈Ninf​f(μ,ν)=ν∈Ninf​μ∈Msup​f(μ,ν).

Such equalities are the basis of zero-sum game theory, of Lagrangian duality in optimization, of robust optimization, and of minimax lower bounds in statistics and online learning. Maurice Sion's 1958 paper On general minimax theorems proved the version most often cited today: MMM and NNN convex subsets of topological vector spaces, one of them compact, fff quasi-concave and upper semicontinuous in μ\muμ, quasi-convex and lower semicontinuous in ν\nuν.

Sion's theorem itself is already machine-checked: Mathlib's Sion.minimax proves it, following the elementary argument of Komiya (1988), and the platform holds it as FamousTheorems.sion_minimax_theorem. Sion's own proof is different. It runs through an open-cover form of the Knaster–Kuratowski–Mazurkiewicz (KKM) theorem, a Helly-type fact about n+1n+1n+1 points in low dimension, and a lemma about minimal finite covers (Lemma 3.3). That route has not been formalized. This mission formalizes its ingredients, with Lemma 3.3 as the goal.

Timeline:

  • 1928: von Neumann proves the minimax theorem for bilinear payoffs on simplices (mixed strategies of matrix games).
  • 1929: Knaster, Kuratowski and Mazurkiewicz prove the KKM covering theorem for closed sets.
  • 1952–1953: Kneser and Fan extend the minimax theorem to concave-convex and concavelike-convexlike functions on compact sets.
  • 1958: Sion proves the quasi-concave-convex version with semicontinuity, by the KKM route.
  • 1988: Komiya gives an elementary proof avoiding KKM; it is the proof formalized in Mathlib.

Setting

Let EEE be a real topological vector space: a real vector space with a topology for which addition and scalar multiplication are continuous. A set M⊆EM \subseteq EM⊆E is convex if it contains the segment between any two of its points. The convex hull ⌜X⌝\ulcorner X \urcorner┌X┐ of a set XXX is the smallest convex set containing it.

A real function ggg on a convex set MMM is quasi-concave on MMM if every superlevel set {μ∈M:g(μ)≥r}\{\mu \in M : g(\mu) \ge r\}{μ∈M:g(μ)≥r} is convex, and quasi-convex if every sublevel set {μ∈M:g(μ)≤r}\{\mu \in M : g(\mu) \le r\}{μ∈M:g(μ)≤r} is convex. It is upper semicontinuous (u.s.c.) on MMM if every strict sublevel set {μ∈M:g(μ)<r}\{\mu \in M : g(\mu) < r\}{μ∈M:g(μ)<r} is open in the topology MMM inherits from EEE; lower semicontinuous (l.s.c.) is the mirror notion.

Let YYY be a finite set, ccc a real number, and fff a real function on M×YM \times YM×Y. Say that YYY has property P if for each μ∈M\mu \in Mμ∈M there is a y∈Yy \in Yy∈Y with f(μ,y)<cf(\mu, y) < cf(μ,y)<c, and that YYY is minimal for P if no proper subset of YYY has P.

An nnn-dimensional simplex with vertices a0,…,ana_0, \dots, a_na0​,…,an​ is the convex hull of n+1n+1n+1 affinely independent points.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3.3 (p. 173)

Let M⊆EM \subseteq EM⊆E be nonempty and convex, YYY finite, and f(⋅,y)f(\cdot, y)f(⋅,y) quasi-concave and u.s.c. on MMM for each y∈Yy \in Yy∈Y. If YYY is minimal for P, then

∃ μ0∈M    ∀y∈Y:f(μ0,y)<c.\exists\, \mu_0 \in M \;\; \forall y \in Y: \quad f(\mu_0, y) < c.∃μ0​∈M∀y∈Y:f(μ0​,y)<c.

The lemma makes no compactness or finite-dimensionality assumption on MMM; that generality is what lets Sion apply it on the convex hull of a finite set inside an arbitrary topological vector space.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.2 (p. 173). If A={a0,…,an}\mathfrak A = \{a_0, \dots, a_n\}A={a0​,…,an​} are n+1n+1n+1 points in a real vector space of dimension k<nk < nk<n, then ⋂i=0n⌜A−{ai}⌝≠∅\bigcap_{i=0}^n \ulcorner \mathfrak A - \{a_i\} \urcorner \ne \emptyset⋂i=0n​┌A−{ai​}┐=∅.
  2. Theorem 3.1 (p. 173). If SSS is an nnn-simplex with vertices a0,…,ana_0, \dots, a_na0​,…,an​ and A0,…,AnA_0, \dots, A_nA0​,…,An​ are open in the ambient space, S⊆⋃iAiS \subseteq \bigcup_i A_iS⊆⋃i​Ai​, each S−AiS - A_iS−Ai​ is convex, and ai∉Aja_i \notin A_jai​∈/Aj​ for i≠ji \ne ji=j, then ⋂iAi≠∅\bigcap_{i} A_i \neq \emptyset⋂i​Ai​=∅.
  3. Lemma 3.3′ (p. 173). The dual of the goal: quasi-convex, l.s.c. in the second variable, with >>> in place of <<<.
  4. Remark 3.6 (p. 174). The explicit function on [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2, quasi-concave-convex and l.s.c. in ν\nuν but not u.s.c. in μ\muμ, with sup⁡inf⁡f=0<1=inf⁡sup⁡f\sup\inf f = 0 < 1 = \inf\sup fsupinff=0<1=infsupf.

Sion's Theorem 3.4 and the Corollary on p. 174 (the minimax theorem) enter the mission as the existing, proved platform item FamousTheorems.sion_minimax_theorem.

Significance

Lemma 3.3 is a finite, one-sided statement that already contains the full strength of the quasi-concave case: a finite family of "threats" y∈Yy \in Yy∈Y, none of which can be dropped, can be beaten simultaneously by one point μ0\mu_0μ0​. On p. 174 Sion derives the minimax theorem from Lemma 3.3 and Lemma 3.3′ by reducing open covers to minimal finite ones, alternately on each side. Theorem 3.1 is an open-set KKM theorem with a convexity condition on complements, a covering principle of independent use in fixed-point theory and equilibrium existence. Remark 3.6 shows that the semicontinuity hypotheses are not decorative.

On the formal side, the minimax theorem is proved in Mathlib by another route, so nothing in this mission is needed to know that Sion's theorem is true. What the mission adds is the infrastructure of the original proof: a KKM-type theorem (absent from Mathlib and from the platform), a Helly-type statement about n+1n+1n+1 points, and the minimal-cover lemma. None of these has a machine-checked proof today. A formalized open KKM theorem is reusable for Fan's lemma, for Gale–Nikaido–Debreu type existence results and for other covering arguments.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to Lemma 3.3 is induction on ∣Y∣|Y|∣Y∣, using quasi-concavity to combine points that are good for subfamilies. It fails because quasi-concavity gives control over superlevel sets {f≥c}\{f \ge c\}{f≥c} only, so the union of two "bad" sets is not controlled, and nothing forces two partial witnesses to have a common improvement on the segment between them. The lemma is genuinely topological: without upper semicontinuity it is false (Remark 3.6 exhibits the resulting failure of the minimax equality).

The topological content sits in Theorem 3.1. Neither Mathlib nor the platform has a KKM theorem (the platform has Brouwer's fixed-point theorem), and the passage from the classical closed-set KKM theorem to the open-set form, and from a simplex inside a possibly non-Hausdorff topological vector space to the standard simplex, both need care: the topology induced on a finite-dimensional subspace need not be the Euclidean one.

Formalization scope

  • The ambient space is a real topological vector space: [AddCommGroup E] [Module ℝ E] [TopologicalSpace E] [IsTopologicalAddGroup E] [ContinuousSMul ℝ E], the class of Mathlib's Sion file. No Hausdorff or finite-dimensionality assumption is made. The paper never names the ambient space; "convex set" is read as a convex subset of such a space.
  • Quasi-concavity, quasi-convexity and semicontinuity are Mathlib's QuasiconcaveOn, QuasiconvexOn, UpperSemicontinuousOn, LowerSemicontinuousOn, all relative to the set MMM or NNN.
  • fff is typed E→ι→RE \to \iota \to \mathbb RE→ι→R (or ι→E→R\iota \to E \to \mathbb Rι→E→R) and YYY is a Finset ι; values off M×YM \times YM×Y are irrelevant. Minimality is "no strict sub-Finset has property P".
  • Added hypothesis M≠∅M \ne \emptysetM=∅ in Lemma 3.3 and N≠∅N \neq \emptysetN=∅ in Lemma 3.3′: with M=Y=∅M = Y = \emptysetM=Y=∅ the hypotheses hold vacuously and the conclusion fails.
  • Theorem 3.1 uses the page's ambient openness hypothesis and nonempty intersection conclusion. In the application to Lemma 3.3, relatively open strict sublevel sets on MMM must be represented by ambient open sets before restricting to the simplex.
  • Theorem 3.2 takes the points as an injective family (encoding "n+1n+1n+1 points") and A−{ai}\mathfrak A - \{a_i\}A−{ai​} as a set difference; dimension is linear dimension (Module.finrank).
  • Remark 3.6 formalizes only the checkable claims about the example, with sup⁡inf⁡\sup\infsupinf and inf⁡sup⁡\inf\supinfsup over the subtype [0,1][0,1][0,1] in EReal; "cannot be removed nor appreciably weakened" is informal and omitted.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: minimality is not defined in terms of the conclusion, and MMM is neither finite-dimensional nor compact.

Contributions welcome: a formal KKM theorem (closed and open versions), Theorem 3.2 from Mathlib's Convex.helly_theorem, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • M. Sion, On general minimax theorems, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 8(1), 171–176, 1958. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1958.8.171
  • B. Knaster, C. Kuratowski, S. Mazurkiewicz, Ein Beweis des Fixpunktsatzes für n-dimensionale Simplexe, Fundamenta Mathematicae 14, 132–137, 1929. https://doi.org/10.4064/fm-14-1-132-137
  • K. Fan, Minimax theorems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 39(1), 42–47, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.39.1.42
  • H. Kneser, Sur un théorème fondamental de la théorie des jeux, Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences 234, 2418–2420, 1952.
  • H. Komiya, Elementary proof for Sion's minimax theorem, Kodai Mathematical Journal 11(1), 5–7, 1988. https://doi.org/10.2996/kmj/1138038812
  • J. von Neumann, Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele, Mathematische Annalen 100, 295–320, 1928. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01448847
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CombinatoricsMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On Cores and Indivisibility 2: Gale's Top Trading Cycles Give a Core Allocation Supported by Competitive PricesResearch Paper

Motivation

Markets for indivisible goods, in which each participant owns one unit and wants one unit (houses, kidneys in paired donation, dormitory rooms, school seats), cannot be analysed with the convexity assumptions of classical general equilibrium theory. Shapley and Scarf (1974) introduced the housing market to ask whether the two central solution concepts of exchange economies survive indivisibility: the core (allocations no coalition can improve upon by trading among itself) and competitive equilibrium (allocations supported by prices at which every trader optimizes within his budget). Their paper (doi:10.1016/0304-4068(74)90033-0) gives two proofs that the core is nonempty. The first (Section 4) shows that the associated game without side payments is balanced and invokes Scarf's theorem; that is the companion mission of this series. The second (Section 6) is a constructive argument the authors attribute to David Gale, the top trading cycles method, which also produces competitive prices. This mission formalizes the second.

Timeline.

  • 1967: Scarf proves that balanced games without side payments have nonempty cores (doi:10.2307/1909383).
  • 1974: Shapley and Scarf define the housing market, prove that it has a nonempty core by both arguments, and give Gale's top-trading-cycle construction with competitive prices, allowing indifferences.
  • 1977: Roth and Postlewaite show that with strict preferences the competitive allocation is unique and is the unique allocation in the strong core (doi:10.1016/0304-4068(77)90004-0).
  • 1982: Roth shows the top-trading-cycles mechanism is strategy-proof under strict preferences (doi:10.1016/0165-1765(82)90003-9).
  • 2003: Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez adapt top trading cycles to school choice (doi:10.1257/000282803322157061).

Setting

A finite set NNN of traders each brings one indivisible good; "item jjj" is the good of trader jjj. Preferences are a real matrix A=(aij)i,j∈NA = (a_{ij})_{i,j\in N}A=(aij​)i,j∈N​: trader iii prefers item jjj to item kkk when aij>aika_{ij} > a_{ik}aij​>aik​ and is indifferent when aij=aika_{ij} = a_{ik}aij​=aik​. Ties are allowed, and only comparisons matter.

An allocation is a bijection σ:N→N\sigma : N\to Nσ:N→N; trader iii receives item σ(i)\sigma(i)σ(i). For a coalition SSS, an SSS-permutation τ\tauτ reshuffles the items of SSS among the members of SSS. The allocation σ\sigmaσ is a core allocation if there is no nonempty SSS and SSS-permutation τ\tauτ with aiτ(i)>aiσ(i)a_{i\tau(i)} > a_{i\sigma(i)}aiτ(i)​>aiσ(i)​ for every i∈Si \in Si∈S.

Prices price:N→R\mathrm{price}: N \to \mathbb Rprice:N→R are competitive for σ\sigmaσ if each trader iii, selling his own item for price(i)\mathrm{price}(i)price(i), can afford σ(i)\sigma(i)σ(i), i.e. price(σ(i))≤price(i)\mathrm{price}(\sigma(i)) \le \mathrm{price}(i)price(σ(i))≤price(i), and no item kkk with price(k)≤price(i)\mathrm{price}(k) \le \mathrm{price}(i)price(k)≤price(i) is better for him than σ(i)\sigma(i)σ(i).

For R⊆NR \subseteq NR⊆N, a top trading cycle for RRR is a nonempty S⊆RS \subseteq RS⊆R whose members can be arranged in a cycle i1→i2→⋯→is→i1i_1 \to i_2 \to \cdots \to i_s \to i_1i1​→i2​→⋯→is​→i1​ so that each iri_rir​ likes the good of ir+1i_{r+1}ir+1​ at least as well as any other good in RRR. A top-trading-cycle partition is

N=S1∪S2∪⋯∪Sp,N = S^1 \cup S^2 \cup \cdots \cup S^p,N=S1∪S2∪⋯∪Sp,

with S1S^1S1 a top trading cycle for NNN and each SjS^jSj a top trading cycle for N−(S1∪⋯∪Sj−1)N - (S^1\cup\cdots\cup S^{j-1})N−(S1∪⋯∪Sj−1). In Lean the partition carries stage : N → Fin p and the successor map next : N → N.

Formalization targets

Goal: Section 6, assertions (1) and (2), p. 114

For every market AAA and every top-trading-cycle partition with successor map next\mathrm{next}next, the allocation i↦next(i)i \mapsto \mathrm{next}(i)i↦next(i) is a core allocation, and for every choice of prices

π1>π2>⋯>πp>0\pi^1 > \pi^2 > \cdots > \pi^p > 0π1>π2>⋯>πp>0

on the goods of S1,…,SpS^1,\dots,S^pS1,…,Sp it is competitive. The paper asserts that "a set of competitive prices exists"; its argument works for every such choice, and the goal states that.

Milestones (Section 6, p. 114)

  1. Every nonempty R⊆NR\subseteq NR⊆N has a top trading cycle.
  2. A top-trading-cycle partition of NNN exists (so the goal is not vacuous and every market has a competitive core allocation).
  3. If jjj is the first index with S∩Sj≠∅S \cap S^j \ne \emptysetS∩Sj=∅ and i∈S∩Sji \in S\cap S^ji∈S∩Sj, then aik≤ai next(i)a_{ik} \le a_{i\,\mathrm{next}(i)}aik​≤ainext(i)​ for all k∈Sk \in Sk∈S.
  4. Under the prices πstage(k)\pi^{\mathrm{stage}(k)}πstage(k), the successor's item costs the same as one's own, and every affordable item lies in one's own cycle or a later one.

Example (Section 7, pp. 115–116)

For the matrix (01210−1−110)\begin{pmatrix}0&1&2\\1&0&-1\\-1&1&0\end{pmatrix}​01−1​101​2−10​​ the unique competitive payoff is (2,1,1)(2,1,1)(2,1,1) at equal prices, while the allocation with payoff (1,1,0)(1,1,0)(1,1,0) is a core allocation that is competitive at no prices.

Significance

The result gives the existence of a core allocation of every housing market by an explicit construction, and shows that this allocation is competitive, so the competitive solution is nonempty even though goods are indivisible and preferences may have ties. The Section 7 example shows that the inclusion of competitive allocations in the core is strict in general. Under strict preferences, the outcome of the construction is the basis of the matching-market literature: uniqueness of the strong core (Roth–Postlewaite), strategy-proofness (Roth), and the school-choice and kidney-exchange mechanisms built on top trading cycles.

The mathematics is classical and proved. The formalization adds a machine-checked statement of the weak-preference version with the paper's strict blocking notion and its price argument, which existing formal developments do not cover. The closest platform items are AGT.house_core_unique, the strict-preference refinement (Roth–Postlewaite: with strict preferences and weak blocking the core is exactly one allocation), and the school-choice items SchoolChoice.TTC.*. Neither is this statement: the first assumes strict total orders and a different blocking notion, under which the core can be empty once ties are allowed, and says nothing about prices; the second concerns another model with priorities.

Difficulty

Each step is short on paper; the work is in the bookkeeping. The cycle allocation must be shown to be a bijection of NNN from the stage-by-stage cycle structure; the "chain of best-liked goods that eventually must come back to some earlier element" must be turned into a cycle whose members each get a best good in RRR, with ties handled by a choice rather than by a unique top choice; and the first-stage argument must be carried out with the coalition's reshuffling restricted to its own goods. A tempting shortcut, assuming strict preferences or using a union of cycles at a stage, proves a different statement and is ruled out by the definitions.

Formalization scope

  • Traders form an arbitrary finite type N with decidable equality; no nonemptiness is assumed (the empty market has the empty partition). The matrix A : N → N → ℝ has no hypothesis, so ties are allowed.
  • Allocations are bijections σ : N → N rather than zero-one matrices. This loses nothing: a coalition in which all members are strictly better off gives each member exactly one item of the coalition (owning nothing is ranked below everything), and an allocation leaving a trader without an item is blocked by that trader alone.
  • Blocking is strict for every member of the coalition, as on p. 107; the weak notion (all weakly, one strictly better off) makes assertion (1) false with ties.
  • The paper gives no displayed definition of competitive prices. The Lean notion is: σ\sigmaσ is a bijection, price(σ(i))≤price(i)\mathrm{price}(\sigma(i)) \le \mathrm{price}(i)price(σ(i))≤price(i), and price(k)≤price(i)⇒aik≤aiσ(i)\mathrm{price}(k)\le\mathrm{price}(i) \Rightarrow a_{ik}\le a_{i\sigma(i)}price(k)≤price(i)⇒aik​≤aiσ(i)​. This transcribes "can sell his own item for πj\pi^jπj dollars", "cannot afford", and "his utility is maximized" (p. 114).
  • A top trading cycle is a single cycle of the successor map: nonempty, inside RRR, closed under next, every member reaching every other by iterating next. A one-trader cycle with next i = i is allowed (footnote, p. 114).
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases: "it is evident" (milestone 1) is an existence statement; "the highest possible payoff available to him in SSS" (milestone 3) is aik≤ai next(i)a_{ik} \le a_{i\,\mathrm{next}(i)}aik​≤ainext(i)​ for all k∈Sk\in Sk∈S; "cannot afford any items from S1,…,Sj−1S^1,\dots,S^{j-1}S1,…,Sj−1" (milestone 4) is: price at most πj\pi^jπj implies stage at least jjj; "a set of competitive prices exists" (goal) is strengthened to every strictly decreasing positive π\piπ, as the proof gives.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the partition is quantified over all choices and its existence is a milestone, cycles are required to be nonempty and single, and the budget clause is part of the price notion, so competitiveness does not reduce to "everyone gets a best good".
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a computable top-trading-cycle algorithm with a proof that it produces a partition, and a proof of the paper's remark that no other competitive prices exist up to ties.

Selected references

  • L. Shapley and H. Scarf, On cores and indivisibility, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974) 23–37. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90033-0
  • H. Scarf, The core of an N person game, Econometrica 35 (1967) 50–69. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909383
  • A. E. Roth and A. Postlewaite, Weak versus strong domination in a market with indivisible goods, Journal of Mathematical Economics 4 (1977) 131–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(77)90004-0
  • A. E. Roth, Incentive compatibility in a market with indivisible goods, Economics Letters 9 (1982) 127–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(82)90003-9
  • A. Abdulkadiroğlu and T. Sönmez, School choice: a mechanism design approach, American Economic Review 93 (2003) 729–747. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322157061
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Functional AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Existence of Correlated Equilibria III: A Game with Compact Hausdorff Strategy Spaces and Continuous Payoffs Has a Countably Additive Correlated EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

A correlated equilibrium (Aumann 1974) describes play in a game where a mediator draws a profile of recommended actions from a joint distribution and tells each player only that player's own recommendation; the distribution is an equilibrium when no player gains, on average, by departing from the recommendation. Correlated equilibria are the natural outcome of regret-minimizing learning dynamics and the solution concept underlying much of algorithmic game theory, so it matters in which games they are guaranteed to exist.

For finite games existence follows from Nash's theorem, since every Nash equilibrium is a correlated one. Hart and Schmeidler (1989) gave a direct proof based on linear duality, with no fixed-point theorem, and then extended it beyond finite games. This mission formalizes the last and most general of their three existence theorems: games with arbitrarily many players whose strategy spaces are compact Hausdorff spaces.

Timeline.

  • 1952: Fan and Glicksberg prove fixed-point theorems that yield Nash equilibria, hence correlated equilibria, for continuous games on compact strategy spaces.
  • 1969: Peleg proves existence of Nash equilibria for games with infinitely many players, finite strategy sets and continuous payoffs.
  • 1974: Aumann introduces correlated equilibria (J. Math. Econ. 1).
  • 1987: Aumann characterizes correlated equilibrium as Bayesian rationality (Econometrica 55).
  • 1989: Hart and Schmeidler prove existence of correlated equilibria by a separation argument: Theorem 1 for finite games, Theorem 2 for infinitely many players with finite strategy sets, Theorem 3 for compact Hausdorff strategy spaces (Math. Oper. Res. 14).

Setting

A game consists of a nonempty set NNN of players, possibly uncountable; for each player i∈Ni\in Ni∈N a nonempty set SiS^iSi of pure strategies; and for each player a payoff function hi:S→Rh^i:S\to\mathbb Rhi:S→R on the set of strategy profiles S=∏j∈NSjS=\prod_{j\in N}S^jS=∏j∈N​Sj. For a profile sss and a strategy ti∈Sit^i\in S^iti∈Si, (s−i,ti)(s^{-i},t^i)(s−i,ti) denotes the profile obtained from sss by replacing player iii's coordinate with tit^iti; thus hi(s)=hi(s−i,si)h^i(s)=h^i(s^{-i},s^i)hi(s)=hi(s−i,si).

In this mission each SiS^iSi is a compact Hausdorff space with its Borel σ-algebra Σi\Sigma^iΣi, the profile space SSS carries the product topology, and Σ\SigmaΣ is the Borel σ-algebra of SSS. The product σ-algebra Σ0\Sigma_0Σ0​ generated by the Σi\Sigma^iΣi is contained in Σ\SigmaΣ, and the inclusion may be strict when SSS is not metrizable (the paper's footnote 13).

Let ppp be a probability measure on (S,Σ)(S,\Sigma)(S,Σ). Think of ppp as the mediator's distribution; player iii learns the coordinate sis^isi of the drawn profile. A deviation of player iii is a Σi\Sigma^iΣi-measurable map ζi:Si→Si\zeta^i:S^i\to S^iζi:Si→Si that replaces each recommendation by an action. The measure ppp is a correlated equilibrium with respect to {Σi}i∈N\{\Sigma^i\}_{i\in N}{Σi}i∈N​ and Σ\SigmaΣ when, for every player iii and every deviation ζi\zeta^iζi,

∫S[hi(s−i,si)−hi(s−i,ζi(si))] dp(s) ≥ 0.(4)\int_S\bigl[h^i(s^{-i},s^i)-h^i\bigl(s^{-i},\zeta^i(s^i)\bigr)\bigr]\,dp(s)\ \ge\ 0 . \tag{4}∫S​[hi(s−i,si)−hi(s−i,ζi(si))]dp(s) ≥ 0.(4)

The left side is the expected gain from obeying the recommendation instead of following ζi\zeta^iζi.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

If every SiS^iSi is compact Hausdorff and every hih^ihi is continuous on SSS with the product topology, then

∃ p probability measure on (S,Σ) such that (4) holds for all i∈N and all Σi-measurable ζi.\exists\, p\ \text{probability measure on } (S,\Sigma)\ \text{such that (4) holds for all } i\in N \text{ and all } \Sigma^i\text{-measurable } \zeta^i .∃p probability measure on (S,Σ) such that (4) holds for all i∈N and all Σi-measurable ζi.

"Countably additive" in the paper's statement is automatic: ppp is a measure.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Every f-set game has a correlated equilibrium. An f-set is a product T=∏iTiT=\prod_iT^iT=∏i​Ti of finite nonempty sets Ti⊆SiT^i\subseteq S^iTi⊆Si with TiT^iTi a singleton for all but finitely many iii; the game ΓT\Gamma_TΓT​ restricts each player to TiT^iTi, and its correlated equilibrium qTq_TqT​ is a finitely supported probability on SSS.
  2. On a compact Hausdorff space, every net of probability measures has a regular probability measure as a cluster point for the topology induced by the continuous functions.
  3. For a regular probability ppp on SSS and a Borel set Ri⊆SiR^i\subseteq S^iRi⊆Si, there are a closed Fi⊆RiF^i\subseteq R^iFi⊆Ri and an open Gi⊇RiG^i\supseteq R^iGi⊇Ri with p((Gi∖Fi)×S−i)<εp\bigl((G^i\setminus F^i)\times S^{-i}\bigr)<\varepsilonp((Gi∖Fi)×S−i)<ε: the marginal of a regular measure is regular.
  4. The special case. A regular cluster point ppp of the qTq_TqT​ satisfies (4) for every deviation that equals a fixed tit^iti on a Borel set RiR^iRi and the identity elsewhere.
  5. For continuous hih^ihi and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, SiS^iSi has a finite Borel partition A1,…,AKA_1,\dots,A_KA1​,…,AK​ with ∣hi(s−i,a)−hi(s−i,b)∣<ε|h^i(s^{-i},a)-h^i(s^{-i},b)|<\varepsilon∣hi(s−i,a)−hi(s−i,b)∣<ε for a,ba,ba,b in the same piece and every s−is^{-i}s−i.
  6. The general case. If (4) holds for all deviations of the special form, it holds for every Borel deviation.

An optional milestone records the remark on p. 23 that, for a finite strategy set SiS^iSi, condition (4) for player iii is equivalent to the earlier condition (3), one inequality per recommendation rir^iri and alternative tit^iti.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 guarantees correlated equilibria, with a genuine (countably additive) probability measure, in every continuous game on compact strategy spaces, however many players there are. It also justifies taking Σ\SigmaΣ to be the full Borel σ-algebra rather than the smaller product σ-algebra, so that every Borel-measurable deviation rule is allowed. Nash existence under the same hypotheses (Fan 1952, Glicksberg 1952) implies existence of correlated equilibria too, but through a fixed-point theorem; the proof here uses only finite-dimensional duality and compactness.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and its proof is published; nothing here is open. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of Theorem 3, or of any existence result for correlated equilibria in infinite games, exists. Finite-game existence results are on the platform (AGT.nash_existence; the correlated-equilibrium encodings of Aumann 1987 and Foster and Vohra 1997, and AGT.swap_regret_correlated_equilibrium). The formalization would add reusable measure-theoretic tools on compact products: the regular cluster point of a net of probability measures, the regularity of marginals, and uniform partitions for continuous functions on a product.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is the one that proves Theorem 2: approximate the game by finite games ΓT\Gamma_TΓT​, take correlated equilibria qTq_TqT​, extract a weak-* cluster point ppp, and pass the inequalities of ΓT\Gamma_TΓT​ to the limit. Passing to the limit works only for integrands that are continuous in sss, because ppp is a cluster point against continuous functions only. The integrand of (4) is hi(s)−hi(s−i,ζi(si))h^i(s)-h^i(s^{-i},\zeta^i(s^i))hi(s)−hi(s−i,ζi(si)), and ζi\zeta^iζi is merely Borel measurable, so this integrand need not be continuous and the limit step fails. Restricting to continuous deviations would avoid the difficulty but would prove a weaker theorem. Two further points need care: on a non-metrizable product the Borel σ-algebra is larger than the product σ-algebra, and the f-sets ordered by inclusion are not a directed set.

Formalization scope

The profile space is a type synonym Profile S of ∀ i, S i carrying the product topology and the instance borel (Profile S), so measures on SSS live on the Borel σ-algebra Σ\SigmaΣ and not on Mathlib's product σ-algebra MeasurableSpace.pi (=Σ0=\Sigma_0=Σ0​). The pair (s−i,ti)(s^{-i},t^i)(s−i,ti) is Function.update s i t. Players form a type ι with Nonempty ι; each S i is nonempty, compact and Hausdorff with BorelSpace (S i); payoffs are h : ι → Profile S → ℝ with each h i continuous. Deviations are all maps ζ : S i → S i with Measurable ζ.

The predicate IsCorrelatedEq h μ requires IsProbabilityMeasure μ and, for each player and measurable deviation, both integrability of the integrand and nonnegativity of its integral. The integrability clause prevents a trivializing reading in which a non-integrable integrand, whose Lean integral is 000, satisfies (4) vacuously; restricting deviations to continuous maps, or using the product σ-algebra, would also change the theorem and is ruled out.

The f-set net is indexed by the f-sets containing a fixed profile s^\hat ss^, which are directed; the paper's "ordered by inclusion of the sets TTT" over all f-sets is not directed, and anchoring repairs this without affecting any statement of the paper. A correlated equilibrium qTq_TqT​ of ΓT\Gamma_TΓT​ is encoded by its finite support and weights (IsFSetCE). The special case is stated for a regular cluster point of the qTq_TqT​ given by these constructed objects, not for an arbitrary measure.

A complete development needs Banach–Alaoglu or the compactness of probability measures on a compact space, the Riesz–Markov–Kakutani representation (RealRMK), regularity of measures (Measure.Regular), Urysohn's lemma, and uniform continuity on compact spaces, all available in Mathlib in some form. Proofs of any milestone, including the general-purpose milestones 2, 3 and 5, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and D. Schmeidler, Existence of Correlated Equilibria, Mathematics of Operations Research 14(1), 18–25, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.14.1.18
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1, 67–96, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • R. J. Aumann, Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality, Econometrica 55(1), 1–18, 1987. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911154
  • B. Peleg, Equilibrium Points for Games with Infinitely Many Players, Journal of the London Mathematical Society s1-44, 292–294, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1112/jlms/s1-44.1.292
  • I. L. Glicksberg, A Further Generalization of the Kakutani Fixed Point Theorem, with Application to Nash Equilibrium Points, Proceedings of the AMS 3, 170–174, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9939-1952-0046638-5
  • K. Fan, Fixed-Point and Minimax Theorems in Locally Convex Topological Linear Spaces, PNAS 38, 121–126, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.38.2.121
  • N. Dunford and J. T. Schwartz, Linear Operators, Part I, Interscience, 1958.
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Bimatrix Equilibrium Points and Mathematical Programming: If Z Is Non-Degenerate and uᵀMu ≥ 0, uᵀMu = 0 ⇒ Mu + Mᵀu = 0 for All u ≥ 0, a Non-Empty Z Has an Equilibrium PointResearch Paper

Motivation

The linear complementarity problem asks, for a real square matrix MMM of order nnn and a vector q∈Rnq\in\mathbb R^nq∈Rn, for a vector zzz with

z≥0,w=Mz−q≥0,zTw=0.z\ge 0,\qquad w=Mz-q\ge 0,\qquad z^{\mathsf T}w=0 .z≥0,w=Mz−q≥0,zTw=0.

It is the common form of the Kuhn–Tucker conditions of linear and convex quadratic programs and of the equilibrium conditions of two-person non-zero-sum (bimatrix) games. In 1964 Lemke and Howson gave a constructive existence proof for equilibrium points of bimatrix games by following a path of adjacent extreme points of a polyhedron (Lemke–Howson 1964). In 1965 Lemke adapted that path-following technique to the general problem above, under a condition on MMM that covers the positive semidefinite case treated by Dantzig and Cottle and the case M>0M>0M>0 (Lemke 1965). The resulting procedure, now called Lemke's algorithm or complementary pivoting, became a standard method for linear complementarity problems and a template for later path-following existence proofs (Cottle, Pang, Stone 1992).

Timeline:

  • 1964: Lemke and Howson, adjacent-extreme-point path for bimatrix games.
  • 1965: Lemke, existence for matrices satisfying conditions (i)–(ii) below (the goal of this mission), under a non-degeneracy assumption, by an augmented path with an artificial variable z0z_0z0​.
  • Later literature names matrices with (i)–(ii) copositive-plus, and removes non-degeneracy by lexicographic perturbation.

Setting

Fix a finite index set of size nnn, a real n×nn\times nn×n matrix MMM and q∈Rnq\in\mathbb R^nq∈Rn. Inequalities between vectors are componentwise and eee is the all-ones vector.

  • The set Z={z∈Rn:z≥0, w=Mz−q≥0}Z=\{z\in\mathbb R^n : z\ge 0,\ w=Mz-q\ge 0\}Z={z∈Rn:z≥0, w=Mz−q≥0}; www is always the function Mz−qMz-qMz−q of zzz.
  • An equilibrium point is a point z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z with zTw=0z^{\mathsf T}w=0zTw=0; SSS is the set of them.
  • For any z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn, the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z) consists of the columns of (MT,I)(M^{\mathsf T},I)(MT,I) that are kept when one deletes the iii-th column of MTM^{\mathsf T}MT whenever wi≠0w_i\ne 0wi​=0 and the iii-th column of III whenever zi≠0z_i\ne0zi​=0.
  • An extreme point of ZZZ is a point z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z with rank⁡N(z)=n\operatorname{rank}N(z)=nrankN(z)=n; zzz lies on an open edge if z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z and rank⁡N(z)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z)=n-1rankN(z)=n−1. An open edge is the set of points of ZZZ sharing the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z) of such a point; a ray is an open edge with exactly one end-point.
  • ZZZ is non-degenerate if for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn the columns of N(z)N(z)N(z) are linearly independent.
  • For an index sss, Zs={z∈Z:zTw=zsws}Z_s=\{z\in Z : z^{\mathsf T}w=z_sw_s\}Zs​={z∈Z:zTw=zs​ws​}. An adjacency path is a non-empty connected class of closed edges of ZZZ no three of which meet; its end-points are the extreme points lying on exactly one of its edges.
  • The augmented sets: Z∗={(z,z0):z≥0, z0≥0, Mz+z0e−q≥0}Z^*=\{(z,z_0) : z\ge0,\ z_0\ge0,\ Mz+z_0e-q\ge0\}Z∗={(z,z0​):z≥0, z0​≥0, Mz+z0​e−q≥0}, its subset Z0∗Z_0^*Z0∗​ where zTw=0z^{\mathsf T}w=0zTw=0, and, for a number kkk, Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, the set of the form above for the bordered data (Me−eT0)\begin{pmatrix}M&e\\-e^{\mathsf T}&0\end{pmatrix}(M−eT​e0​), (q−k)\begin{pmatrix}q\\-k\end{pmatrix}(q−k​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 7)

Suppose ZZZ is non-degenerate and that for every u≥0u\ge0u≥0

(i) uTMu≥0,(ii) uTMu=0 ⟹ Mu+MTu=0.\text{(i)}\ u^{\mathsf T}Mu\ge 0,\qquad \text{(ii)}\ u^{\mathsf T}Mu=0\ \Longrightarrow\ Mu+M^{\mathsf T}u=0 .(i) uTMu≥0,(ii) uTMu=0 ⟹ Mu+MTu=0.

Then

Z≠∅ ⟹ ∃z∈Z, zT(Mz−q)=0.Z\ne\emptyset\ \Longrightarrow\ \exists z\in Z,\ z^{\mathsf T}(Mz-q)=0 .Z=∅ ⟹ ∃z∈Z, zT(Mz−q)=0.

Milestones, in the order the paper's proof uses them

  1. Theorem 1 (p. 3): for non-degenerate ZZZ, ZsZ_sZs​ is empty or a disjoint union of adjacency paths whose end-points are exactly the equilibrium points.
  2. Lemma 2 (p. 4): Z=∅Z=\emptysetZ=∅ iff some u≥0u\ge0u≥0 has MTu≤0M^{\mathsf T}u\le0MTu≤0, uTq>0u^{\mathsf T}q>0uTq>0.
  3. Theorem 2 (p. 4): if some ZsZ_sZs​ contains precisely one ray of a non-degenerate ZZZ, the number of equilibrium points is odd.
  4. p. 6: for kkk chosen as in (12), the starting ray E0∗E_0^*E0∗​ (z=0z=0z=0) is a ray of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ inside Z0∗∗Z_0^{**}Z0∗∗​, and it is the only one.
  5. Lemma 2 (p. 6): Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ has an equilibrium point.
  6. Lemma 3 (p. 7): a ray (zˉ+θu,zˉ0+θu0)(\bar z+\theta u,\bar z_0+\theta u_0)(zˉ+θu,zˉ0​+θu0​) of Z∗Z^*Z∗ in Z0∗Z_0^*Z0∗​ with eTu=1e^{\mathsf T}u=1eTu=1 satisfies uTMu+u0=0u^{\mathsf T}Mu+u_0=0uTMu+u0​=0.
  7. (22)–(25) (pp. 7–8): under (i)–(ii) such a ray has zˉ0=0\bar z_0=0zˉ0​=0 and zˉ\bar zzˉ an equilibrium point of ZZZ, or zˉ0>0\bar z_0>0zˉ0​>0 and Z=∅Z=\emptysetZ=∅.

Companion results

The Corollary (p. 5: q=eq=eq=e, M>0M>0M>0 gives an odd number of equilibrium points), Theorem 3 (p. 5: if zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz, at most one equilibrium point) and Theorem 5 (p. 8: if moreover Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅, ZZZ has at least nnn rays).

Significance

Theorem 4 is an existence theorem for a class of linear complementarity problems that contains convex quadratic programming (the case zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz) and strictly positive matrices, and its proof is an algorithm: the path followed is the sequence of pivots of Lemke's method. The parity statements (Theorem 2, the Corollary) are an early instance of the path-following parity arguments later abstracted in the complexity class PPAD (Papadimitriou 1994).

The theorem is classical and proved. To our knowledge neither Lemke's theorem nor the polyhedral path machinery of Theorems 1–2 has a machine-checked proof in Lean or Mathlib. This mission produces the vocabulary of non-degenerate complementarity polyhedra (the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z), open edges, rays, adjacency paths), the parity theorem, and the existence theorem itself; the Farkas-type Lemma 2 (p. 4) is already available on the platform.

Difficulty

The algebraic part (Lemma 3 and (22)–(25)) is short. The difficulty is combinatorial-geometric: Theorem 1 requires that, under non-degeneracy, every extreme point of ZZZ has exactly nnn incident edges, that each point of ZsZ_sZs​ is an extreme point or lies on an open edge, and that the edges contained in ZsZ_sZs​ form paths whose end-points are exactly the equilibrium points; the parity of Theorem 2 then needs finiteness of the set of extreme points. None of this polyhedral structure (edges as zero-pattern classes, their closures and end-points) is in Mathlib. Moreover, the printed proof of Theorem 4 applies Theorem 2 to Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, whose non-degeneracy the paper obtains from an informal perturbation remark, and it sketches the step from the end of the augmented path to a ray of Z∗Z^*Z∗; a complete proof of the goal must supply these steps or take another route.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are functions from a finite index type ι\iotaι to R\mathbb RR (n=∣ι∣n=|\iota|n=∣ι∣; Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn is a special case); the bordered system lives on ι⊕{∗}\iota\oplus\{\ast\}ι⊕{∗}. www is always Mz−qMz-qMz−q, never a free variable.
  • N(z)N(z)N(z) is the indexed family of its columns, rank⁡N(z)\operatorname{rank}N(z)rankN(z) the dimension of their span; "rank⁡N(z)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z)=n-1rankN(z)=n−1" is written rank⁡N(z)+1=n\operatorname{rank}N(z)+1=nrankN(z)+1=n.
  • Non-degeneracy (Def. 3) is linear independence of the columns of N(z)N(z)N(z) for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn. The phrase "(but not all)" is read as excluding only the empty matrix; the other reading differs only when q=0q=0q=0, and the formal definition is then the stronger hypothesis.
  • An open edge is the set of points of ZZZ with the zero pattern of a point z0z_0z0​ with rank⁡N(z0)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z_0)=n-1rankN(z0​)=n−1; closed edges are closures; end-points of an open edge EEE are the points of E‾∖E\overline E\setminus EE∖E; a ray has exactly one. Adjacency paths are classes of closed edges.
  • Conditions (i)–(ii) are quantified over u≥0u\ge0u≥0 only. "Non-negative definite" (Theorems 3, 5) is zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz, with no symmetry assumed.
  • "An odd number" is finiteness plus odd cardinality; "at least nnn rays" counts rays as an extended natural number; "at most one" is a subsingleton.
  • Equilibrium points include membership in ZZZ: zT(Mz−q)=0z^{\mathsf T}(Mz-q)=0zT(Mz−q)=0 alone holds at z=0z=0z=0 and would make the goal trivial. The goal mentions neither Z∗Z^*Z∗, Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, kkk, rays nor paths; in particular non-degeneracy of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ is not a hypothesis of the goal.
  • Deviations: Lemma 2 (p. 6) assumes non-degeneracy of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ (Def. 3 does not define it for the non-square Z∗Z^*Z∗); milestone 4 holds for every kkk without non-degeneracy; Lemma 3 and (22)–(25) parametrize the ray as in (15) without requiring zˉ∗\bar z^*zˉ∗ to be an extreme point, which makes them stronger.

Contributions welcome: the polyhedral lemmas for non-degenerate ZZZ (extreme points have nnn edges, finitely many extreme points), the parity argument, and any complete route to Theorem 4.

Selected references

  • C. E. Lemke, Bimatrix Equilibrium Points and Mathematical Programming, Management Science 11(7):681–689, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.7.681 (cited from the HAL deposit hal-01885823v1)
  • C. E. Lemke, J. T. Howson, Equilibrium Points of Bimatrix Games, J. SIAM 12(2):413–423, 1964. https://doi.org/10.1137/0112033
  • R. W. Cottle, J.-S. Pang, R. E. Stone, The Linear Complementarity Problem, Academic Press 1992; SIAM Classics 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719000
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, On the complexity of the parity argument and other inefficient proofs of existence, J. Computer and System Sciences 48(3):498–532, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0000(05)80063-7
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Bargaining Problem: The Nash Product Maximizer Is the Unique Solution Satisfying Invariance, Symmetry, IIA and Pareto EfficiencyResearch Paper

Motivation

Two parties who can cooperate for mutual benefit must still agree on how to share the benefit. In The Bargaining Problem (Econometrica, 1950) John Nash asked which agreement two rational bargainers of equal skill should reach. His answer is not a model of haggling: it is a list of conditions any reasonable rule should satisfy, together with a proof that exactly one point of the set of feasible agreements is compatible with them. That point maximizes the product of the two parties' utility gains. Known as the Nash bargaining solution, it is the reference point of cooperative bargaining theory. Economics, operations research and networking all use it: in supply contracts, in wage bargaining, and in fair bandwidth allocation, where maximizing a product of gains becomes maximizing a sum of logarithms (proportional fairness).

Timeline:

  • 1944. von Neumann and Morgenstern axiomatize expected utility. A utility is determined up to a positive affine transformation au+bau+bau+b. Nash quotes this on p. 157.
  • 1950. Nash introduces the two-person bargaining problem and the axioms of Pareto efficiency, independence of irrelevant alternatives and symmetry, the solution being invariant under the choice of utility scales. He proves that they force the maximizer of the product u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ (doi:10.2307/1907266).
  • 1953. Nash's Two-Person Cooperative Games adds the threat game that fixes the disagreement point.
  • 1975. Kalai and Smorodinsky replace independence of irrelevant alternatives by monotonicity and obtain a different solution.
  • 1986. Binmore, Rubinstein and Wolinsky show that the Nash solution is the limit of equilibria of alternating-offers bargaining as the time between offers vanishes.

Setting

A bargaining problem is a pair ⟨S,d⟩\langle S,d\rangle⟨S,d⟩. Here S⊆R2S\subseteq\mathbb R^2S⊆R2 is the set of utility pairs u=(u1,u2)u=(u_1,u_2)u=(u1​,u2​) the two players can reach by agreement, including lotteries over agreements. d∈Sd\in Sd∈S is the disagreement point, the utilities of no cooperation. As in the platform goal, SSS is compact and convex, and some s∈Ss\in Ss∈S has s1>d1s_1>d_1s1​>d1​ and s2>d2s_2>d_2s2​>d2​ (both individuals could gain). Write B\mathcal BB for the set of such pairs.

A bargaining solution is a map ggg from B\mathcal BB to R2\mathbb R^2R2. Nash requires:

  • Selection. g(S,d)∈Sg(S,d)\in Sg(S,d)∈S.
  • PAR (Nash's assumption 6). If s,t∈Ss,t\in Ss,t∈S and ttt is strictly better than sss for both players, then g(S,d)≠sg(S,d)\neq sg(S,d)=s.
  • IIA (assumption 7). If S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T and g(T,d)∈Sg(T,d)\in Sg(T,d)∈S, then g(S,d)=g(T,d)g(S,d)=g(T,d)g(S,d)=g(T,d).
  • SYM (assumption 8). If d1=d2d_1=d_2d1​=d2​ and SSS is symmetric in the line u1=u2u_1=u_2u1​=u2​, then g(S,d)g(S,d)g(S,d) lies on that line.
  • INV. For L(s)=(α1s1+β1, α2s2+β2)L(s)=(\alpha_1s_1+\beta_1,\ \alpha_2s_2+\beta_2)L(s)=(α1​s1​+β1​, α2​s2​+β2​) with α1,α2>0\alpha_1,\alpha_2>0α1​,α2​>0, g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d))g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d))g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d)).

The paper has no separate INV axiom. It normalizes the disagreement utility to 000 and notes that each utility is then determined only up to a positive multiple (p. 158), so the solution must not depend on that choice.

Formalization targets

Goal

The goal is the platform theorem NashBargaining.nash_bargaining_solution_unique, posed by Nickrobbins95 and currently Open. This mission references it and does not restate it. It asserts that there is a solution fff such that a solution ggg satisfies selection, INV, SYM, IIA and PAR if and only if g=fg=fg=f, and that for every ⟨S,d⟩∈B\langle S,d\rangle\in\mathcal B⟨S,d⟩∈B

f(S,d)≥d,(s1−d1)(s2−d2)<(f1−d1)(f2−d2)  for all s∈S, s≥d, s≠f(S,d).f(S,d)\ge d,\qquad (s_1-d_1)(s_2-d_2)<(f_1-d_1)(f_2-d_2)\ \text{ for all } s\in S,\ s\ge d,\ s\neq f(S,d).f(S,d)≥d,(s1​−d1​)(s2​−d2​)<(f1​−d1​)(f2​−d2​)  for all s∈S, s≥d, s=f(S,d).

Nash's paper proves the necessity half: a solution satisfying the conditions must select the maximizer of the Nash product. The sufficiency half, that the maximizer map satisfies the five conditions, is not argued in the paper. It must be supplied by whoever closes the goal.

Milestones

  1. On a compact convex S∋(0,0)S\ni(0,0)S∋(0,0) that contains a point where both players gain, u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ has exactly one strict maximizer ppp in the closed first quadrant, and p1,p2>0p_1,p_2>0p1​,p2​>0.
  2. Multiplying the utilities by positive constants maps the maximizer to the maximizer, so ppp may be moved to (1,1)(1,1)(1,1).
  3. If SSS is convex and (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) maximizes u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​, then u1+u2≤2u_1+u_2\le2u1​+u2​≤2 on all of SSS.
  4. A compact SSS under that line lies in a square Qh={2−2h≤u1+u2≤2, ∣u1−u2∣≤h}Q_h=\{2-2h\le u_1+u_2\le2,\ |u_1-u_2|\le h\}Qh​={2−2h≤u1​+u2​≤2, ∣u1​−u2​∣≤h}.
  5. (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) is the only point of QhQ_hQh​ on the diagonal that no point of QhQ_hQh​ strictly dominates.
  6. Necessity. Under the five conditions, g(S,d)g(S,d)g(S,d) is the strict maximizer of (s1−d1)(s2−d2)(s_1-d_1)(s_2-d_2)(s1​−d1​)(s2​−d2​) over S∩{s≥d}S\cap\{s\ge d\}S∩{s≥d}.

Two further items formalize the paper's examples: the Bill–Jack barter, whose solution is the vertex (12,5)(12,5)(12,5) reached by exactly one exchange, and trade with money, where the solution gives equal money profits.

Significance

The Nash product characterization is used, mostly without proof, wherever a "fair" split of a cooperative surplus is needed. Examples are generalized Nash bargaining in supply-chain contracting and labour economics, the proportional-fairness criterion in network rate control, and the Nash-in-Nash models of bilateral negotiations. Many papers that build on it apply it to a specific feasible set. They therefore rely on the necessity direction, which is the step that makes the maximizer the unique answer rather than one answer among several.

The result has been proved since 1950, while the referenced Prove2Me goal remains Open. This mission supplies the milestones of Nash's own argument in the encoding of that goal, so that the necessity direction can be assembled from them. Sufficiency remains as separate work. The two examples are small, concrete checks of the solution concept.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary. The difficulty is in keeping the bookkeeping honest across the normalizations. The axioms are stated on the class B\mathcal BB, and a solution is a function on a subtype. Every application of INV, SYM or IIA therefore needs a membership proof for a transformed set: the image of SSS under an affine map, or the enclosing square. It also needs the disagreement point to be carried along. The tempting short cut is to argue "without loss of generality d=0d=0d=0 and p=(1,1)p=(1,1)p=(1,1)". That is exactly what INV licenses, but only after compactness, convexity, the point where both gain, and the location of ddd inside the square have been re-established for each transformed problem. Uniqueness of the maximizer also needs care at the boundary of the quadrant, where the product vanishes.

Formalization scope

Utility pairs are ℝ × ℝ, with u.1 player 1's utility and u.2 player 2's. Milestones 1–5 work at d=(0,0)d=(0,0)d=(0,0), the paper's normalization. Milestone 6 has a general ddd and the goal's encoding. Milestones 1–5 make the following readings explicit:

  • "First quadrant" is the closed quadrant u1≥0, u2≥0u_1\ge0,\ u_2\ge0u1​≥0, u2​≥0.
  • "The point where u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ is maximized" is the strict maximizer over SSS in that quadrant, in the goal's form. Milestone 1 also states p1,p2>0p_1,p_2>0p1​,p2​>0, which follows from the point where both gain (p. 158).
  • Milestone 3's hypothesis is the weak maximum s1s2≤1s_1s_2\le1s1​s2​≤1. Its conclusion covers every point of SSS, not only first-quadrant points.
  • The square is the explicit set QhQ_hQh​. Its compactness, convexity and literal symmetry (a,b)∈Qh  ⟺  (b,a)∈Qh(a,b)\in Q_h\iff(b,a)\in Q_h(a,b)∈Qh​⟺(b,a)∈Qh​ are part of milestone 4's conclusion.
  • "Satisfying assumptions (6) and (8)" in the square means lying on u1=u2u_1=u_2u1​=u2​ and being strictly dominated by no point of the square.

Milestone 6's five hypotheses are copied verbatim from the goal, and its conclusion is the goal's last conjunct for the given ggg. It does not restate the goal: it has no existence claim and no "if and only if".

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The point where both gain is a hypothesis wherever uniqueness is claimed; without it a segment on an axis has many maximizers of u1u2=0u_1u_2=0u1​u2​=0. The square is a concrete set, not "some symmetric compact convex set", and the solution's properties are quantified over the goal's class B\mathcal BB, which is nonempty.

The examples need finite sums, convex hulls of finite sets, and extreme points, all in Mathlib. Contributions are welcome on each milestone and on the sufficiency half of the goal.

Related platform work treats other bargaining models. These are Rubinstein's alternating-offers game (RubinsteinBargaining.PEP) and the Chatterjee–Samuelson sealed-offer double auction (ChatterjeeSamuelson). Neither is used here. The von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem behind the normalization is formalized as TheoryOfGames.Utility.utility_existence_uniqueness.

Selected references

  • J. F. Nash, Jr., The Bargaining Problem, Econometrica 18(2), 155–162, 1950. doi:10.2307/1907266
  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, 1944.
  • J. F. Nash, Jr., Two-Person Cooperative Games, Econometrica 21(1), 128–140, 1953. doi:10.2307/1906951
  • E. Kalai, M. Smorodinsky, Other Solutions to Nash's Bargaining Problem, Econometrica 43(3), 513–518, 1975. doi:10.2307/1914280
  • K. Binmore, A. Rubinstein, A. Wolinsky, The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling, RAND Journal of Economics 17(2), 176–188, 1986. doi:10.2307/2555382
  • M. J. Osborne, A. Rubinstein, Bargaining and Markets, Academic Press, 1990, Theorem 2.3.
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations 2: With Competing Retailers, Revenue Sharing Supports the System-Optimal Quantities as a Nash EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

A supplier that sells through independent retailers usually loses part of the profit an integrated firm would earn: each retailer orders to maximize its own profit, not the channel's. Supply chain coordination asks which contracts make the decentralized choices coincide with the integrated optimum. Cachon and Lariviere study revenue-sharing contracts, under which a retailer pays a per-unit wholesale price and keeps only a fraction ϕ\phiϕ of its revenue, the rest going to the supplier. The contracts were made prominent by the video rental industry around 1998, where studios lowered tape prices in exchange for a share of rental income.

With a single retailer, revenue sharing at the wholesale price ϕc\phi cϕc coordinates the channel and splits its profit in the proportion ϕ\phiϕ. This mission formalizes the extension in Section 3.2 of the paper to competing retailers: several locations whose revenues depend on each other's stock, so that one retailer's order lowers the others' revenue. Competition creates externalities the single-retailer argument does not have, and the question is whether revenue sharing still coordinates, and at what prices. Section 4.1.2 then works out a Cournot example in closed form, measuring how far the supplier's own optimal wholesale price leaves the channel from the integrated profit.

The source is the authors' working paper of June 2000; the published version (Management Science 51(1), 2005) renumbers and revises the results. The working paper numbers no theorem, so results are cited by section, displayed equation and page.

Setting

A single supplier sells one product through nnn locations i=1,…,ni = 1,\dots,ni=1,…,n, each run by an independent retailer. A stocking profile is qˉ=(q1,…,qn)\bar q = (q_1,\dots,q_n)qˉ​=(q1​,…,qn​), and the revenue at location iii is Ri(qˉ)R_i(\bar q)Ri​(qˉ​), which may depend on every location's quantity. The system revenue is R(qˉ)=∑iRi(qˉ)R(\bar q) = \sum_i R_i(\bar q)R(qˉ​)=∑i​Ri​(qˉ​), every unit costs the supplier c>0c > 0c>0, and the integrated system profit is

Π(qˉ)=R(qˉ)−c∑i=1nqi.\Pi(\bar q) = R(\bar q) - c\sum_{i=1}^n q_i .Π(qˉ​)=R(qˉ​)−ci=1∑n​qi​.

Write Rji(qˉ)=∂Rj(qˉ)/∂qiR_j^i(\bar q) = \partial R_j(\bar q)/\partial q_iRji​(qˉ​)=∂Rj​(qˉ​)/∂qi​: the superscript is the variable differentiated, the subscript the revenue function. The paper assumes that each RiR_iRi​ is continuous, that ∂2Ri/∂qi∂qj≤0\partial^2 R_i/\partial q_i\partial q_j \le 0∂2Ri​/∂qi​∂qj​≤0 for j≠ij \ne ij=i (locations are substitutes), and that RiR_iRi​ is unimodal in qiq_iqi​. The system-optimal profile qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I has positive entries and solves the first-order system

Rii(qˉI)+∑j≠iRji(qˉI)=c,i=1,…,n.(6)R_i^i(\bar q^I) + \sum_{j\ne i} R_j^i(\bar q^I) = c, \qquad i = 1,\dots,n. \tag{6}Rii​(qˉ​I)+j=i∑​Rji​(qˉ​I)=c,i=1,…,n.(6)

Under a revenue-sharing contract (ϕ,wi)(\phi, w_i)(ϕ,wi​) retailer iii earns πri(qˉ,ϕ,wˉ)=ϕRi(qˉ)−wiqi\pi_{r_i}(\bar q,\phi,\bar w) = \phi R_i(\bar q) - w_i q_iπri​​(qˉ​,ϕ,wˉ)=ϕRi​(qˉ​)−wi​qi​ and the supplier earns πs(qˉ,ϕ,wˉ)=∑i((1−ϕ)Ri(qˉ)+wiqi)−c∑iqi\pi_s(\bar q,\phi,\bar w) = \sum_i\big((1-\phi)R_i(\bar q) + w_i q_i\big) - c\sum_i q_iπs​(qˉ​,ϕ,wˉ)=∑i​((1−ϕ)Ri​(qˉ​)+wi​qi​)−c∑i​qi​; the wholesale-price contract is ϕ=1\phi = 1ϕ=1, with profits written πri(qˉ,wˉ)\pi_{r_i}(\bar q,\bar w)πri​​(qˉ​,wˉ) and πs(qˉ,wˉ)\pi_s(\bar q,\bar w)πs​(qˉ​,wˉ). A Nash equilibrium in order quantities is a profile qˉ≥0\bar q \ge 0qˉ​≥0 from which no retailer gains by changing its own quantity to any x≥0x \ge 0x≥0. The coordinating wholesale prices are

wiI=c−∑j≠iRji(qˉI).w_i^I = c - \sum_{j\ne i} R_j^i(\bar q^I).wiI​=c−j=i∑​Rji​(qˉ​I).

The Cournot example (7) is Ri(qˉ)=qi(1−qi−β∑j≠iqj)R_i(\bar q) = q_i\big(1 - q_i - \beta\sum_{j\ne i} q_j\big)Ri​(qˉ​)=qi​(1−qi​−β∑j=i​qj​) with 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1.

Formalization targets

Goal: revenue sharing supports qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I (Sec. 3.2, p. 14)

For ϕ∈[0,1]\phi\in[0,1]ϕ∈[0,1] and wi(ϕ)=ϕwiIw_i(\phi) = \phi w_i^Iwi​(ϕ)=ϕwiI​:

qˉI is a Nash equilibrium,πri(qˉI,ϕ,ϕwˉI)=ϕ πri(qˉI,wˉI),πs(qˉI,ϕ,ϕwˉI)=(1−ϕ)Π(qˉI)+ϕ πs(qˉI,wˉI).\bar q^I \text{ is a Nash equilibrium},\quad \pi_{r_i}(\bar q^I,\phi,\phi\bar w^I) = \phi\,\pi_{r_i}(\bar q^I,\bar w^I),\quad \pi_s(\bar q^I,\phi,\phi\bar w^I) = (1-\phi)\Pi(\bar q^I) + \phi\,\pi_s(\bar q^I,\bar w^I).qˉ​I is a Nash equilibrium,πri​​(qˉ​I,ϕ,ϕwˉI)=ϕπri​​(qˉ​I,wˉI),πs​(qˉ​I,ϕ,ϕwˉI)=(1−ϕ)Π(qˉ​I)+ϕπs​(qˉ​I,wˉI).

Wholesale-price contracts (Sec. 3.2, pp. 13–14)

An interior equilibrium satisfies Rii(qˉN)=wiR_i^i(\bar q^N) = w_iRii​(qˉ​N)=wi​ (Eq. (8)), so marginal-cost pricing does not support qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I when a location imposes a negative externality; the prices wˉI\bar w^IwˉI make qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I an equilibrium; wiI≥cw_i^I \ge cwiI​≥c when cross-effects are nonpositive; and wˉI\bar w^IwˉI supports exactly the split πs(qˉI,wˉI)=∑iqiI∑j≠i(−Rji(qˉI))\pi_s(\bar q^I,\bar w^I) = \sum_i q_i^I\sum_{j\ne i}(-R_j^i(\bar q^I))πs​(qˉ​I,wˉI)=∑i​qiI​∑j=i​(−Rji​(qˉ​I)).

Revenue sharing (Sec. 3.2, p. 14)

An interior equilibrium satisfies ϕRii(qˉN)=wi(ϕ)\phi R_i^i(\bar q^N) = w_i(\phi)ϕRii​(qˉ​N)=wi​(ϕ); the two profit identities hold for every ϕ\phiϕ; and πri(qˉI,wˉI)≥0\pi_{r_i}(\bar q^I,\bar w^I) \ge 0πri​​(qˉ​I,wˉI)≥0.

The Cournot example (Sec. 4.1.2, pp. 19–20)

At a common price w<1w<1w<1 the unique equilibrium is qiN=(1−w)/(2+β(n−1))q_i^N = (1-w)/(2+\beta(n-1))qiN​=(1−w)/(2+β(n−1)); the integrated optimum is qiI=(1−c)/(2+2β(n−1))q_i^I = (1-c)/(2+2\beta(n-1))qiI​=(1−c)/(2+2β(n−1)); the coordinating price wI=c+β(n−1)(1−c)/(2+2β(n−1))w^I = c + \beta(n-1)(1-c)/(2+2\beta(n-1))wI=c+β(n−1)(1−c)/(2+2β(n−1)) increases in β\betaβ and nnn; the supplier's optimal price is w∗=(1+c)/2w^* = (1+c)/2w∗=(1+c)/2; and the efficiency at w∗w^*w∗ is

Π(qˉN(w∗))Π(qˉI)=1−1(2+β(n−1))2.\frac{\Pi(\bar q^N(w^*))}{\Pi(\bar q^I)} = 1 - \frac{1}{(2+\beta(n-1))^2}.Π(qˉ​I)Π(qˉ​N(w∗))​=1−(2+β(n−1))21​.

Significance

The goal shows that the single-retailer coordination result survives competition, with one change: the coordinating price must charge each retailer for the externality it imposes on the others, so it depends on every location's revenue function, and wiIw^I_iwiI​ exceeds the production cost. The supplier's profit then moves along a line between what wholesale prices alone give her and the whole system profit, which is how revenue sharing provides a profit split that linear prices cannot. The Cournot results make the comparison quantitative: when retailers compete intensely, the supplier's own optimal wholesale price already achieves most of the integrated profit, so revenue sharing, which has administrative costs, is less attractive.

No machine-checked proof of these results is known. The mission produces a reusable formal description of an nnn-player quantity game under per-retailer linear contracts, equilibrium conditions for it, and a fully worked Cournot instance, including a uniqueness claim for equilibria among all (not only symmetric) profiles.

Difficulty

The equilibrium claims are global: a retailer must not gain from any nonnegative deviation, not only from small ones. A first-order condition at qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I does not give this by itself. The page assumes RiR_iRi​ unimodal in qiq_iqi​, but unimodality does not survive subtracting the linear purchase cost, so the first-order condition is not sufficient under that assumption alone; the formalization uses concavity in the own quantity, under which it is. The participation claim πri(qˉI,wˉI)≥0\pi_{r_i}(\bar q^I,\bar w^I) \ge 0πri​​(qˉ​I,wˉI)≥0 is stated on the page without proof and needs a bound on the revenue of a location that stocks nothing.

In the Cournot example, uniqueness of the equilibrium must exclude asymmetric profiles and profiles where some retailers stock nothing, and the supplier's optimal price must be compared against every equilibrium at every price, including prices at which the retailers order nothing.

Formalization scope

Locations are Fin n; a profile is Fin n → ℝ; revenues are R : Fin n → (Fin n → ℝ) → ℝ, and dR i j q is Rji(qˉ)=∂Rj/∂qiR_j^i(\bar q) = \partial R_j/\partial q_iRji​(qˉ​)=∂Rj​/∂qi​, given as a partial derivative at every profile with all entries positive. A deviation of retailer iii to xxx is Function.update q i x, and Nash equilibria quantify over all x≥0x \ge 0x≥0. The standing assumptions of Section 3.2 are fields of the structure Model: c>0c > 0c>0; continuity of RiR_iRi​ on the nonnegative orthant; the partial derivatives; ∂2Ri/∂qi∂qj≤0\partial^2 R_i/\partial q_i\partial q_j \le 0∂2Ri​/∂qi​∂qj​≤0, encoded as "RiiR_i^iRii​ does not increase in qjq_jqj​"; and concavity of RiR_iRi​ in qiq_iqi​, which is the formalization's reading of "unimodal in qiq_iqi​". The paper's assumption that marginal revenue eventually falls below every δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 is used only for existence of an equilibrium, which is not formalized, and is omitted.

Deviations from the page, each disclosed in the item concerned:

  • qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I is taken as any positive solution of (6); its optimality for Π\PiΠ is not used.
  • "qˉ∗\bar q^*qˉ​∗ is a Nash equilibrium" (p. 13) is read as qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I.
  • In ϕ(Ri(qˉI)−qiIwi)\phi(R_i(\bar q^I) - q_i^I w_i)ϕ(Ri​(qˉ​I)−qiI​wi​) (p. 14), wiw_iwi​ is read as wiIw_i^IwiI​.
  • "Rii(qˉI)>cR_i^i(\bar q^I) > cRii​(qˉ​I)>c" needs a negative externality ∑j≠iRji(qˉI)<0\sum_{j\ne i}R_j^i(\bar q^I) < 0∑j=i​Rji​(qˉ​I)<0, which is assumed.
  • "Rji(qˉ)≤0R_j^i(\bar q) \le 0Rji​(qˉ​)≤0" is not a standing assumption, so it is a hypothesis of wiI≥cw_i^I \ge cwiI​≥c, and strictness needs some strictly negative cross-effect.
  • πri(qˉI,wˉI)≥0\pi_{r_i}(\bar q^I,\bar w^I) \ge 0πri​​(qˉ​I,wˉI)≥0 assumes nonnegative revenue at a location that stocks nothing.
  • In the Cournot example the implicit w<1w < 1w<1 and 0<c<10 < c < 10<c<1 are hypotheses; all retailers pay a common price; "increasing" is strict exactly where it holds (n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 for β\betaβ, β>0\beta > 0β>0 for nnn).

A formalization that defines "the prices coordinate" as "the prices satisfy the first-order condition at qˉI\bar q^Iqˉ​I" restates (6) and is ruled out: every equilibrium claim here is the game-theoretic statement about unilateral deviations. Contributions welcome: proofs of the equilibrium lemmas from concavity and the derivative, the Cournot uniqueness argument, and a general existence theorem for the quantity game.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, M. A. Lariviere, Supply Chain Coordination with Revenue-Sharing Contracts: Strengths and Limitations, working paper, June 2000. Published version: Management Science 51(1):30–44, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0215
  • D. Fudenberg, J. Tirole, Game Theory, MIT Press, 1991 (Theorem 1.2, existence of pure-strategy equilibria).
  • F. Bernstein, A. Federgruen, Pricing and Replenishment Strategies in a Distribution System with Competing Retailers, Operations Research 51(3):409–426, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.3.409.14957
  • J. Tirole, The Theory of Industrial Organization, MIT Press, 1988.
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Price of Stability for Network Design with Fair Cost Allocation I: The Price of Stability of Fair Cost Sharing Is at Most H(k), and This Is TightResearch Paper

Motivation

Many networks are built and paid for by the users they serve: multicast trees, virtual overlays, shared subnetworks of the Internet. A protocol proposes a design and a rule for splitting its cost, and each participant is free to accept the proposal or defect to a cheaper alternative. The designer therefore cannot impose the global optimum; the best it can do is propose the cheapest outcome that no participant wants to leave, a Nash equilibrium. The ratio between the cost of the best equilibrium and the optimal cost, the price of stability, measures the loss caused by requiring stability. It contrasts with the price of anarchy, which compares the worst equilibrium with the optimum and suits settings with no coordinating protocol at all.

Anshelevich, Dasgupta, Kleinberg, Tardos, Wexler and Roughgarden (SIAM J. Comput. 2008; preliminary version FOCS 2004) studied this question for the most common cost-sharing rule, the Shapley (equal-split) rule, under which every user of an edge pays the same share of its cost. Their first result, the subject of this mission, is that the price of stability is at most the harmonic number H(k)H(k)H(k), where kkk is the number of players, and that this bound is attained in the limit.

Setting

There are kkk players and a finite set EEE of edges. Each player iii has a family Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ of feasible strategies, each a set of edges; in the network setting Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ consists of the edge sets connecting player iii's terminals in a directed graph. Each edge eee has a nonnegative cost cec_ece​. In a strategy vector S=(S1,…,Sk)S=(S_1,\dots,S_k)S=(S1​,…,Sk​), Si∈ΣiS_i\in\Sigma_iSi​∈Σi​, let xex_exe​ be the number of players whose strategy contains eee. Under Shapley cost sharing player iii pays

Ci(S)=∑e∈Sicexe.C_i(S)=\sum_{e\in S_i}\frac{c_e}{x_e}.Ci​(S)=e∈Si​∑​xe​ce​​.

The cost of the designed network is

cost⁡(S)=∑e∈⋃iSice,\operatorname{cost}(S)=\sum_{e\in\bigcup_i S_i}c_e ,cost(S)=e∈⋃i​Si​∑​ce​,

and the payments add up to exactly this amount. The profile SSS is a (pure) Nash equilibrium if no player iii has a strategy Si′∈ΣiS_i'\in\Sigma_iSi′​∈Σi​ with Ci(S−i,Si′)<Ci(S)C_i(S_{-i},S_i')<C_i(S)Ci​(S−i​,Si′​)<Ci​(S). Finally,

H(k)=1+12+⋯+1k.H(k)=1+\tfrac12+\dots+\tfrac1k .H(k)=1+21​+⋯+k1​.

The game is a congestion game: the per-user cost of an edge, fe(x)=ce/xf_e(x)=c_e/xfe​(x)=ce​/x, depends only on the edge and its number of users. Rosenthal's potential

Φ(S)=∑e∈E∑x=1xefe(x)\Phi(S)=\sum_{e\in E}\sum_{x=1}^{x_e}f_e(x)Φ(S)=e∈E∑​x=1∑xe​​fe​(x)

changes by exactly the deviating player's change in cost when a single player changes strategy. The same objects are used with load-dependent edge costs ce(x)c_e(x)ce​(x), in which case fe(x)=ce(x)/xf_e(x)=c_e(x)/xfe​(x)=ce​(x)/x.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 and its tightness

For every game with ce≥0c_e\ge0ce​≥0 in which each player has a feasible strategy there is a Nash equilibrium SSS with

cost⁡(S)≤H(k)⋅cost⁡(P)for every profile P,\operatorname{cost}(S)\le H(k)\cdot\operatorname{cost}(P)\quad\text{for every profile }P,cost(S)≤H(k)⋅cost(P)for every profile P,

and for every k≥1k\ge1k≥1, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 the instance of Fig. 1.1 (player iii has its own path of cost 1/i1/i1/i, and all players can share a path of cost 1+ε1+\varepsilon1+ε) has a Nash equilibrium, every Nash equilibrium of it costs H(k)H(k)H(k), and some profile costs 1+ε1+\varepsilon1+ε. The ratio H(k)/(1+ε)H(k)/(1+\varepsilon)H(k)/(1+ε) tends to H(k)H(k)H(k) as ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0.

Milestones

  1. Budget balance: ∑iCi(S)=cost⁡(S)\sum_iC_i(S)=\operatorname{cost}(S)∑i​Ci​(S)=cost(S) for every SSS (Sect. 1).
  2. Rosenthal's potential is exact (Theorem 2.1, proof, (2.1)).
  3. From every profile some Nash equilibrium of no larger potential is reached (Theorem 2.1, proof).
  4. Theorem 3.1: if cost⁡(S)≤A Φ(S)\operatorname{cost}(S)\le A\,\Phi(S)cost(S)≤AΦ(S) and Φ(S)≤Bcost⁡(S)\Phi(S)\le B\operatorname{cost}(S)Φ(S)≤Bcost(S) for all SSS, the price of stability is at most ABABAB.
  5. For nondecreasing concave edge costs ce(x)c_e(x)ce​(x): cost⁡(S)≤Φ(S)≤H(k)cost⁡(S)\operatorname{cost}(S)\le\Phi(S)\le H(k)\operatorname{cost}(S)cost(S)≤Φ(S)≤H(k)cost(S) (Theorem 2.3, proof).
  6. Theorem 2.3: the H(k)H(k)H(k) bound for nondecreasing concave edge costs.
  7. The Fig. 1.1 instance: its Nash equilibrium is unique and costs H(k)H(k)H(k); a profile costs 1+ε1+\varepsilon1+ε.

Significance

The bound shows that requiring stability under the Shapley rule costs at most a logarithmic factor, H(k)=Θ(log⁡k)H(k)=\Theta(\log k)H(k)=Θ(logk), whereas the price of anarchy of the same game is kkk (two parallel edges of costs 111 and kkk already show this). It was among the first price-of-stability results and is the starting point for a line of work on network design games: the undirected case, where the H(k)H(k)H(k) bound is not tight and the correct value remained open for years, weighted players, and other cost-sharing rules. The argument (an exact potential that over- and under-estimates the social cost by bounded factors) is the standard tool for price-of-stability bounds, and Theorem 3.1 isolates it in a reusable form.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists. This mission produces a formal account of Shapley cost-sharing games as congestion games, of Rosenthal's potential and the finite improvement property, of the potential-sandwich argument of Theorem 3.1, and of the matching lower-bound instance, for constant and for nondecreasing concave edge costs.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, bounding the cost of an arbitrary equilibrium, fails: some equilibria cost kkk times the optimum, so any proof must select a particular equilibrium. The selection uses the finiteness of the strategy space together with the exact potential, and the bound needs the inequality Φ≤H(k)⋅cost⁡\Phi\le H(k)\cdot\operatorname{cost}Φ≤H(k)⋅cost, which for concave costs requires the per-user cost ce(x)/xc_e(x)/xce​(x)/x to be nonincreasing. On the lower-bound side, the claim that every equilibrium of Fig. 1.1 costs H(k)H(k)H(k) requires excluding all equilibria in which some players share the common path, for every kkk at once, not only checking that the all-own profile is stable.

Formalization scope

Games are encoded as congestion games over arbitrary finite families of edge sets, reusing the published CongestionPoA.AsymSum.Model (congestion game, loads, player costs, cost-form pure Nash equilibrium, total cost). The paper notes that its proofs do not use the graph structure; the directed-graph game is the instance in which Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ is the family of edge sets connecting player iii's terminals. Players and edges form finite types; kkk is the number of players and H(k)H(k)H(k) is Mathlib's harmonic k cast to R\mathbb RR. The price of stability is stated as the existence of a Nash equilibrium whose cost is at most the constant times the cost of every profile, with no division by the optimum, and with the hypothesis that some profile exists. Concave costs are functions on N\mathbb NN with nonincreasing increments, nondecreasing, with ce(0)≥0c_e(0)\ge0ce​(0)≥0; this last condition is implicit in the paper and needed for ce(x)/xc_e(x)/xce​(x)/x to be nonincreasing. Theorem 3.1 carries the implicit hypothesis A≥0A\ge0A≥0.

A statement that bounds every equilibrium is false, and one that asserts a cheap profile without the Nash condition is trivial; both are excluded, and the tightness part quantifies over every Nash equilibrium of the instance and asserts that one exists.

Needed infrastructure: finite improvement paths in potential games, sum manipulations over loads, and bounds on harmonic sums. The potential lemmas apply to every finite congestion game and are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • E. Anshelevich, A. Dasgupta, J. Kleinberg, É. Tardos, T. Wexler, T. Roughgarden, The Price of Stability for Network Design with Fair Cost Allocation, SIAM J. Comput. 38(4):1602–1623, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/070680096
  • R. W. Rosenthal, A class of games possessing pure-strategy Nash equilibria, Int. J. Game Theory 2:65–67, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01737559
  • D. Monderer, L. S. Shapley, Potential games, Games Econ. Behav. 14:124–143, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1996.0044
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Complexity TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Computing a Nash Equilibrium 2: The Three-Colorable Addition-Multiplication Gadget Has Error Amplification 81Research Paper

Motivation

Nash's theorem guarantees that every finite game has a mixed equilibrium, but says nothing about how hard one is to find. Daskalakis, Goldberg and Papadimitriou (SIAM J. Comput. 39(1), 2009) showed that computing a Nash equilibrium is complete for the class PPAD of total search problems whose solutions are guaranteed by a parity argument on a directed graph (Papadimitriou 1994). Their proof simulates an arithmetic circuit by a graphical game: a multiplayer game in which each player's payoff depends on a few neighbours only, built from small game gadgets whose equilibria compute x↦αxx \mapsto \alpha xx↦αx, x+yx + yx+y, xyxyxy, constants and comparisons on mixed-strategy probabilities.

These gadgets are the reusable core of the reduction. The PPAD-completeness results for three-player games, and the later results for two-player games and for approximate equilibria, all rest on gadget analyses of this kind.

Timeline.

  • 1994: Papadimitriou defines PPAD and shows that Nash equilibrium computation lies in it (JCSS 48).
  • 2001: Kearns, Littman and Singh introduce graphical games (UAI 2001).
  • 2005–2006: Goldberg and Papadimitriou reduce rrr-player games to four-player games, and Daskalakis, Goldberg and Papadimitriou prove PPAD-completeness for four players (STOC 2006). The three-player case is obtained independently by Daskalakis and Papadimitriou and by Chen and Deng (ECCC reports, 2005); the two-player case by Chen and Deng (FOCS 2006; J. ACM 56(3), 2009, with Teng).
  • 2009: the journal version unifies the three-player argument; its Proposition 4.18 is the gadget G+,∗\mathcal G_{+,*}G+,∗​ that makes the reduction to three players work.

Setting

A game has finitely many players; player ppp has a finite set SpS_pSp​ of pure strategies and a nonnegative payoff uspu^p_susp​ for each pure profile sss. A mixed profile xxx gives each player a probability distribution (xjp)j∈Sp(x^p_j)_{j\in S_p}(xjp​)j∈Sp​​, and xsx_sxs​ denotes the product of the probabilities of the components of a partial profile sss. The expected payoff of a pure strategy jjj of ppp is ∑s∈S−pujspxs\sum_{s\in S_{-p}} u^p_{js}x_s∑s∈S−p​​ujsp​xs​.

An ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium (the paper's notion, an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximately well-supported equilibrium, Eq. (2)) is a mixed profile in which no player puts weight on a pure strategy that another of its pure strategies beats by more than ϵ\epsilonϵ:

∀p, j,j′∈Sp:∑s∈S−pujspxs>∑s∈S−puj′spxs+ϵ  ⟹  xj′p=0.\forall p,\ j, j' \in S_p:\quad \sum_{s\in S_{-p}} u^p_{js}x_s > \sum_{s\in S_{-p}} u^p_{j's}x_s + \epsilon \implies x^p_{j'} = 0 .∀p, j,j′∈Sp​:s∈S−p​∑​ujsp​xs​>s∈S−p​∑​uj′sp​xs​+ϵ⟹xj′p​=0.

For ϵ=0\epsilon = 0ϵ=0 this characterizes Nash equilibria.

A player with strategies {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} is binary; p[v]\mathbf p[v]p[v] is the probability that it plays 111, and p[v:s]\mathbf p[v : s]p[v:s] is the probability that vvv plays sss. The affects graph (Definition 2.2) has an edge (v1,v2)(v_1, v_2)(v1​,v2​) between distinct players when the payoff of v2v_2v2​ is a nonconstant function of the action of v1v_1v1​. A legal kkk-coloring (Definition 4.8) gives each player one of kkk colors so that the two ends of an edge differ and two distinct players with a common successor differ.

The game G+,∗\mathcal G_{+,*}G+,∗​ (Fig. 11) has inputs v1,v2v_1, v_2v1​,v2​, output v3v_3v3​ and intermediate players w1,v1′,w2,v2′,w3,w,uw_1, v_1', w_2, v_2', w_3, w, uw1​,v1′​,w2​,v2′​,w3​,w,u, all binary except v2′v_2'v2′​, which has strategies {0,1,∗}\{0, 1, *\}{0,1,∗}. Its payoff tables are fixed by nonnegative integers α,β,γ\alpha, \beta, \gammaα,β,γ; the inputs' payoffs are unconstrained.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.18

For nonnegative integers α,β,γ\alpha, \beta, \gammaα,β,γ with α+β+γ≤3\alpha + \beta + \gamma \le 3α+β+γ≤3, the affects graph of G+,∗\mathcal G_{+,*}G+,∗​ has a legal 3-coloring, and for every ϵ∈[0,0.01]\epsilon \in [0, 0.01]ϵ∈[0,0.01], at every ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium,

∣ p[v3]−min⁡{1, αp[v1]+βp[v2]+γp[v1]p[v2]}∣≤81 ϵ.\Big|\,\mathbf p[v_3] - \min\{1,\ \alpha\mathbf p[v_1] + \beta\mathbf p[v_2] + \gamma\mathbf p[v_1]\mathbf p[v_2]\}\Big| \le 81\,\epsilon .​p[v3​]−min{1, αp[v1​]+βp[v2​]+γp[v1​]p[v2​]}​≤81ϵ.

The case ϵ=0\epsilon = 0ϵ=0 is exact computation at every Nash equilibrium.

Milestones: the four claims of the proof

  • Claim 1: p[v1′]=18p[v1]±ϵ\mathbf p[v_1'] = \tfrac18\mathbf p[v_1] \pm \epsilonp[v1′​]=81​p[v1​]±ϵ.
  • Claim 2: p[v2′:1]=18p[v2]±ϵ\mathbf p[v_2' : 1] = \tfrac18\mathbf p[v_2] \pm \epsilonp[v2′​:1]=81​p[v2​]±ϵ.
  • Claim 3: p[v2′:∗]=α8p[v1]+β8p[v2]+γ8p[v1]p[v2]±10ϵ\mathbf p[v_2' : *] = \tfrac{\alpha}{8}\mathbf p[v_1] + \tfrac{\beta}{8}\mathbf p[v_2] + \tfrac{\gamma}{8}\mathbf p[v_1]\mathbf p[v_2] \pm 10\epsilonp[v2′​:∗]=8α​p[v1​]+8β​p[v2​]+8γ​p[v1​]p[v2​]±10ϵ.
  • Claim 4: the output bound of the goal.

Milestones: the elementary gadgets

  • Proposition 4.2 (G×α\mathcal G_{\times\alpha}G×α​): p[v2]=min⁡(αp[v1],1)±ϵ\mathbf p[v_2] = \min(\alpha\mathbf p[v_1], 1) \pm \epsilonp[v2​]=min(αp[v1​],1)±ϵ for real α≥0\alpha \ge 0α≥0, ϵ<1\epsilon < 1ϵ<1.
  • Proposition 4.3: p[v3]=min⁡(αp[v1]+βp[v2]+γp[v1]p[v2],1)±ϵ\mathbf p[v_3] = \min(\alpha\mathbf p[v_1] + \beta\mathbf p[v_2] + \gamma\mathbf p[v_1]\mathbf p[v_2], 1) \pm \epsilonp[v3​]=min(αp[v1​]+βp[v2​]+γp[v1​]p[v2​],1)±ϵ for real α,β,γ≥0\alpha, \beta, \gamma \ge 0α,β,γ≥0.
  • Proposition 4.5 (Gα\mathcal G_\alphaGα​): p[v1]=min⁡(α,1)±ϵ\mathbf p[v_1] = \min(\alpha, 1) \pm \epsilonp[v1​]=min(α,1)±ϵ.
  • Lemma 5.3 (comparator G<\mathcal G_<G<​): p[d]=1\mathbf p[d] = 1p[d]=1 if p[a]<p[b]−ϵ\mathbf p[a] < \mathbf p[b] - \epsilonp[a]<p[b]−ϵ and p[d]=0\mathbf p[d] = 0p[d]=0 if p[a]>p[b]+ϵ\mathbf p[a] > \mathbf p[b] + \epsilonp[a]>p[b]+ϵ.

Significance

The result. The paper reduces rrr-player games to three-player games by building a graphical game from gadgets, legally coloring it with three colors, and turning each color class into one player of a normal-form game (§4.2, §4.5). Proposition 4.18 supplies a gadget that computes min⁡{1,αx+βy+γxy}\min\{1, \alpha x + \beta y + \gamma xy\}min{1,αx+βy+γxy} and can be glued into such a construction while keeping it legally 3-colorable (p. 233), at the price of an error constant 818181 instead of the constant 111 of the elementary gadgets. The error bound is what carries the reduction over to approximate equilibria: an ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium of the gadget computes its function to within 81ϵ81\epsilon81ϵ.

Formalizing it. All results here are proved in the paper (Proposition 4.5 is stated with the remark that its proof is similar to those of Propositions 4.2 and 4.3). None of them has a machine-checked proof, and no graphical-game or gadget infrastructure exists in Lean. The mission formalizes the known proofs and produces a library of verified gadgets with explicit error bounds, the first layer of any formal treatment of the PPAD-hardness of Nash equilibria.

Difficulty

Each claim is a case analysis on which strategy of an intermediate player is dominated by more than ϵ\epsilonϵ, but the cases interact. Claim 3 needs Claims 1 and 2 as inputs, and it is the step where both α+β+γ≤3\alpha + \beta + \gamma \le 3α+β+γ≤3 and ϵ≤0.01\epsilon \le 0.01ϵ≤0.01 are used: without them one of the regimes of www cannot be excluded. The three-strategy player v2′v_2'v2′​ cannot be handled by the "binary player copies or disagrees" argument of the elementary gadgets; its weight on 111 and on ∗*∗ must be tracked separately. The error constants 101010 and 818181 propagate through products of approximate quantities, so a proof that is loose at any step does not reach them.

On the Lean side, the expected payoff of a pure strategy is a sum over all pure profiles of a ten-player game; every claim first has to reduce it to the few coordinates the player's payoff actually depends on.

Formalization scope

Games, mixed profiles and expected payoffs are those of the published agt_games bundle: a finite player type, strategy types S i, payoffs u : ι → (∀ i, S i) → ℝ, AGT.IsMixedProfile, AGT.expectedPayoff. The expected payoff of a pure strategy jjj is the expected payoff of the profile with ppp's strategy replaced by the point mass at jjj. An ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium requires a genuine mixed profile.

Each gadget is one explicit game on its own player type, with the payoff tables of the paper. Binary strategies are Fin 2 with the paper's labels 0,10, 10,1, and p[v]\mathbf p[v]p[v] is the weight on 1; v2′v_2'v2′​'s strategies are an inductive type {zero, one, star}. The input players' payoffs are unconstrained in the paper; here they are 000, which makes the ϵ\epsilonϵ-condition at the inputs vacuous. Since every non-input payoff depends only on gadget players, "ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium of the standalone gadget" quantifies over all mixed strategies of the inputs and imposes the condition exactly on the other players, which is the paper's meaning when the gadget sits inside a larger game. The affects graph is computed from the payoff functions, without self-loops, and colors {1,…,k}\{1,\dots,k\}{1,…,k} are Fin k. The ranges α,β,γ∈N\alpha, \beta, \gamma \in \mathbb Nα,β,γ∈N (Proposition 4.18) and α,β,γ∈R≥0\alpha, \beta, \gamma \in \mathbb R_{\ge 0}α,β,γ∈R≥0​ (Propositions 4.2, 4.3, 4.5) follow the paper; ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0 is added where the paper writes only ϵ<1\epsilon < 1ϵ<1.

The paper states Proposition 4.18 and Lemma 5.3 as "there is a graphical game"; an existential statement would be met by a game whose output has a dominant strategy and whose inputs are forced, so both are stated for the explicit game of the proof, with free inputs.

A complete development needs a computation lemma for the pure-strategy payoff in each gadget (reusable for any gadget on these definitions) and the case analyses of the claims. Proofs of the elementary gadgets, which are short, and of Claims 1 and 2 are good first contributions; Claim 3 is the main step.

Selected references

  • C. Daskalakis, P. W. Goldberg, C. H. Papadimitriou, The Complexity of Computing a Nash Equilibrium, SIAM J. Comput. 39(1):195–259, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/070699652
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, On the complexity of the parity argument and other inefficient proofs of existence, J. Comput. System Sci. 48(3):498–532, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0000(05)80063-7
  • M. Kearns, M. L. Littman, S. Singh, Graphical Models for Game Theory, UAI 2001. https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.2281
  • X. Chen, X. Deng, S.-H. Teng, Settling the complexity of computing two-player Nash equilibria, J. ACM 56(3):14, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1516512.1516516
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Convex OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Consensus of Subjective Probabilities: The Pari-Mutuel Method: Equilibrium Track Probabilities Exist and Are UniqueResearch Paper

Motivation

A group of mmm individuals each hold a subjective probability distribution over the same nnn outcomes, and one wants a single distribution representing their consensus. Averaging and convolution are the obvious candidates. Eisenberg and Gale (Ann. Math. Statist. 30(1), 1959) observe that a real institution already performs such an aggregation: the pari-mutuel method of betting on horse races, in which the final "track's odds" on a horse are proportional to the total amount bet on it.

The difficulty is circular. Each bettor wants to bet where the ratio of their own probability to the track probability is largest, but the track probabilities are only known after everyone has bet. The paper asks whether track probabilities and bets compatible with both the bettors' strategies and the pari-mutuel principle exist, and whether they are determined by the data. It answers yes on both counts for the probabilities, which gives a well-defined notion of pari-mutuel consensus.

The variational problem the paper introduces, maximizing ∑ibilog⁡(utilityi)\sum_i b_i \log(\text{utility}_i)∑i​bi​log(utilityi​), is now known as the Eisenberg–Gale convex program. It is the standard tool for computing equilibria of linear Fisher markets, and the pari-mutuel market is the special case in which every bettor's utility for a horse is their subjective win probability.

Setting

There are mmm bettors B1,…,BmB_1,\dots,B_mB1​,…,Bm​ and nnn horses H1,…,HnH_1,\dots,H_nH1​,…,Hn​.

  • The subjective probability matrix P=(pij)P=(p_{ij})P=(pij​) is m×nm\times nm×n; pijp_{ij}pij​ is the probability, in the opinion of BiB_iBi​, that HjH_jHj​ wins. Each row is a probability distribution: pij≥0p_{ij}\ge 0pij​≥0 and ∑jpij=1\sum_j p_{ij}=1∑j​pij​=1.
  • Bettor BiB_iBi​ has a budget bi>0b_i>0bi​>0, with the unit of money chosen so that ∑ibi=1\sum_i b_i=1∑i​bi​=1.
  • Each column of PPP contains at least one positive entry (a horse nobody believes in can be removed).

Unknowns are Greek. πj\pi_jπj​ is the track probability of HjH_jHj​ and βij\beta_{ij}βij​ is the amount BiB_iBi​ bets on HjH_jHj​. Nonnegative πj,βij\pi_j,\beta_{ij}πj​,βij​ are equilibrium probabilities and bets when

(1) ∑j=1nβij=bi,(2) ∑i=1mβij=πj,(3) if μi=max⁡spisπs and βij>0, then μi=pijπj.\text{(1)}\ \sum_{j=1}^n\beta_{ij}=b_i,\qquad \text{(2)}\ \sum_{i=1}^m\beta_{ij}=\pi_j,\qquad \text{(3)}\ \text{if } \mu_i=\max_s\frac{p_{is}}{\pi_s}\text{ and }\beta_{ij}>0,\text{ then }\mu_i=\frac{p_{ij}}{\pi_j}.(1) j=1∑n​βij​=bi​,(2) i=1∑m​βij​=πj​,(3) if μi​=smax​πs​pis​​ and βij​>0, then μi​=πj​pij​​.

(1) is the budget relation, (2) the pari-mutuel condition, and (3) says each bettor bets only on horses that maximize the subjective expectation pij/πjp_{ij}/\pi_jpij​/πj​.

The paper's variational problem is

φ(ξ)=∑i=1mbilog⁡∑j=1npijξijonD={ξ: ξij≥0, ∑i=1mξij=1 for all j},\varphi(\xi)=\sum_{i=1}^m b_i\log\sum_{j=1}^n p_{ij}\xi_{ij}\quad\text{on}\quad D=\Big\{\xi:\ \xi_{ij}\ge0,\ \sum_{i=1}^m\xi_{ij}=1\ \text{for all } j\Big\},φ(ξ)=i=1∑m​bi​logj=1∑n​pij​ξij​onD={ξ: ξij​≥0, i=1∑m​ξij​=1 for all j},

with φ=−∞\varphi=-\inftyφ=−∞ where an inner sum vanishes. From a maximizer ξˉ\bar\xiξˉ​ it builds πj=max⁡ibipij/∑spisξˉis\pi_j=\max_i b_ip_{ij}/\sum_s p_{is}\bar\xi_{is}πj​=maxi​bi​pij​/∑s​pis​ξˉ​is​ (6) and βij=ξˉijπj\beta_{ij}=\bar\xi_{ij}\pi_jβij​=ξˉ​ij​πj​ (7). In Lean the market is PariMutuel.Consensus.Market m n, equilibrium is Market.IsEquilibrium, and φ\varphiφ, DDD, the maximizer predicate, (6) and (7) are Market.phi, D m n, Market.IsPhiMaximizer, Market.trackProb, Market.bets.

Formalization targets

Goal: existence and uniqueness of equilibrium probabilities

∃! π∈Rn  ∃ β∈Rm×n: (π,β) are equilibrium probabilities and bets.\exists!\,\pi\in\mathbb R^n\ \ \exists\,\beta\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}:\ (\pi,\beta)\ \text{are equilibrium probabilities and bets}.∃!π∈Rn  ∃β∈Rm×n: (π,β) are equilibrium probabilities and bets.

Only π\piπ is unique; the paper notes that equilibrium bets need not be.

Milestones

  1. φ\varphiφ attains its maximum on DDD at a point with every inner sum positive (p. 167).
  2. ∂φ/∂ξij=bipij/∑spisξis\partial\varphi/\partial\xi_{ij}=b_ip_{ij}/\sum_s p_{is}\xi_{is}∂φ/∂ξij​=bi​pij​/∑s​pis​ξis​ wherever the inner sums are positive (p. 167).
  3. (8): at a maximizer, ξˉij>0\bar\xi_{ij}>0ξˉ​ij​>0 implies πj=∂φ/∂ξˉij\pi_j=\partial\varphi/\partial\bar\xi_{ij}πj​=∂φ/∂ξˉ​ij​ (p. 167).
  4. Every πj\pi_jπj​ of (6) is positive (p. 167).
  5. EXISTENCE THEOREM: for every maximizer ξˉ\bar\xiξˉ​, (6)–(7) are equilibrium probabilities and bets (p. 167).
  6. Every equilibrium has πj>0\pi_j>0πj​>0 (p. 168).
  7. For two equilibria, ∑kπˉkπˉk/πk≤1\sum_k\bar\pi_k\bar\pi_k/\pi_k\le 1∑k​πˉk​πˉk​/πk​≤1 (p. 168).
  8. If π>0\pi>0π>0, πˉ≥0\bar\pi\ge0πˉ≥0, both sum to 1 and ∑kπˉk2/πk≤1\sum_k\bar\pi_k^2/\pi_k\le1∑k​πˉk2​/πk​≤1, then πˉ=π\bar\pi=\piπˉ=π (p. 168).
  9. UNIQUENESS THEOREM: equilibrium probabilities are unique (p. 168).

A further, non-milestone item states the referee's example (p. 168): with two bettors of equal budgets and two horses, if the first bettor's distribution is (12,12)(\tfrac12,\tfrac12)(21​,21​), the equilibrium probabilities are (12,12)(\tfrac12,\tfrac12)(21​,21​) whatever the second bettor believes.

Significance

The result makes pari-mutuel odds a well-defined function of the bettors' beliefs and budgets, so the consensus can be studied as a mathematical object; the referee's example shows it behaves very differently from averaging, since a single indifferent bettor can fix it. The existence proof replaces a fixed-point argument by a concave maximization, which is the origin of the Eisenberg–Gale program, later the basis of convex-programming and combinatorial algorithms for Fisher market equilibria.

The theorems are classical and fully proved in the paper. To the knowledge of this mission they have no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal pari-mutuel market model, the Eisenberg–Gale program with the correct treatment of log⁡0=−∞\log 0=-\inftylog0=−∞, and Lean proofs of existence and uniqueness. The platform's Market Equilibrium under Separable, Piecewise-Linear, Concave Utilities missions (Vazirani–Yannakakis) concern a related Fisher-market model with rational piecewise-linear utilities.

Difficulty

The existence statement, as the paper proves it, has two delicate points. φ\varphiφ is −∞-\infty−∞ on part of the boundary of DDD, so "continuous on a compact set" needs the extended-real reading, and a real-valued formalization must handle the boundary separately. The first-order condition (8) has to be derived from maximality on a polytope with equality constraints on columns, not from an unconstrained critical point.

For uniqueness, the natural first idea, strict concavity of φ\varphiφ, fails: φ\varphiφ is concave but not strictly concave in ξ\xiξ, and indeed equilibrium bets are not unique. Uniqueness has to be proved for the probabilities directly, for arbitrary equilibria and not only those built from a maximizer, and it needs positivity of all πj\pi_jπj​, which the paper uses without proof.

Formalization scope

  • Bettors are Fin m and horses Fin n, indexed from 0. All data are real. Every standing assumption (rows of PPP are probability vectors, no zero column, bi>0b_i>0bi​>0, ∑ibi=1\sum_i b_i=1∑i​bi​=1) is a field of Market; m≥1m\ge1m≥1 follows from ∑ibi=1\sum_ib_i=1∑i​bi​=1.
  • Condition (3) is written multiplied out: βij>0⇒pisπj≤pijπs\beta_{ij}>0\Rightarrow p_{is}\pi_j\le p_{ij}\pi_sβij​>0⇒pis​πj​≤pij​πs​ for all sss. This equals (3) when π>0\pi>0π>0 and encodes the paper's p/0=+∞p/0=+\inftyp/0=+∞ when some πs=0\pi_s=0πs​=0. Positivity of π\piπ is not part of the definition of equilibrium; it is milestone 6.
  • DDD has column sums one, as in (5).
  • φ\varphiφ is real-valued. A maximizer is a point of DDD with positive inner sums that dominates every point of DDD with positive inner sums; the excluded points have φ=−∞\varphi=-\inftyφ=−∞ on the page. The max in (6) is Finset.sup' over the nonempty set of bettors.
  • Ruled out: a version of (3) with real division (x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0) admits spurious equilibria with πs=0\pi_s=0πs​=0 and makes uniqueness false; a maximizer defined with the raw real φ\varphiφ (log⁡0=0\log0=0log0=0) changes the set of maximizers; adding π>0\pi>0π>0 or ∑jπj=1\sum_j\pi_j=1∑j​πj​=1 to the equilibrium definition weakens the goal.
  • Needed infrastructure: compactness of DDD and an argument handling the −∞-\infty−∞ boundary, one-variable derivatives of log⁡\loglog of linear forms, and the equality case of the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality. Milestones 7–9 use no analysis and can be attacked independently of 1–5. Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on the Eisenberg–Gale program, are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. Eisenberg and D. Gale, Consensus of subjective probabilities: the pari-mutuel method, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 30(1):165–168, 1959. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177706369
  • V. V. Vazirani and M. Yannakakis, Market equilibrium under separable, piecewise-linear, concave utilities, Journal of the ACM 58(3), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1145/1970392.1970394
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games II: For Symmetric Games the Average Social Cost Price of Anarchy Is (5N-2)/(2N+1)Research Paper

Motivation

Selfish routing and resource sharing are modelled by congestion games: each player picks a set of shared resources, and the cost of a resource grows with the number of players using it. The price of anarchy, introduced by Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou (STACS 1999), measures how much worse the social cost of a worst Nash equilibrium is than the optimum. For non-atomic (infinitesimal) traffic with linear latencies, Roughgarden and Tardos (J. ACM 2002) showed the ratio is 4/34/34/3. Christodoulou and Koutsoupias (STOC 2005) turned to finite (atomic, unweighted) congestion games, where each of NNN players controls one indivisible unit of load, and determined the pure price of anarchy for linear latencies in four settings: asymmetric or symmetric strategy sets, and average or maximum social cost. Awerbuch, Azar and Epstein (STOC 2005) obtained the value 5/25/25/2 for the asymmetric average case independently.

This mission covers the symmetric average-cost entry of that table (Sect. 3.2 of the paper). It shows that when all players share one strategy set, the ratio is not 5/25/25/2 but (5N−2)/(2N+1)(5N-2)/(2N+1)(5N−2)/(2N+1), which depends on the number of players and tends to 5/25/25/2 only as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞.

Setting

A congestion game has a finite set of players N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} (in Lean, Fin N), a finite set of facilities EEE, for each player iii a collection of pure strategies Σi⊆2E\Sigma_i\subseteq 2^EΣi​⊆2E, and for each facility a latency fe:N→Rf_e:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rfe​:N→R. A profile A=(A1,…,An)A=(A_1,\dots,A_n)A=(A1​,…,An​) picks Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ for each player (IsProfile). The load ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) is the number of players whose strategy contains eee (load), the cost of player iii is

ci(A)=∑e∈Aife(ne(A))c_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i} f_e\bigl(n_e(A)\bigr)ci​(A)=e∈Ai​∑​fe​(ne​(A))

(cost), and the social cost is SUM(A)=∑ici(A)\mathrm{SUM}(A)=\sum_i c_i(A)SUM(A)=∑i​ci​(A) (sumCost), NNN times the average cost. A profile AAA is a pure Nash equilibrium (IsPureNash) if ci(A)≤ci(A−i,S)c_i(A)\le c_i(A_{-i},S)ci​(A)≤ci​(A−i​,S) for every player iii and every S∈ΣiS\in\Sigma_iS∈Σi​, where (A−i,S)(A_{-i},S)(A−i​,S) replaces AiA_iAi​ by SSS.

Latencies are linear (IsLinear) when fe(k)=aek+bef_e(k)=a_ek+b_efe​(k)=ae​k+be​ with ae,be≥0a_e,b_e\ge0ae​,be​≥0. The game is symmetric (IsSymmetric) when all players have the same strategy set, Σi=Σ\Sigma_i=\SigmaΣi​=Σ. The pure price of anarchy of a class of games is the supremum, over games in the class and pure Nash equilibria AAA, of SUM(A)/opt\mathrm{SUM}(A)/\mathit{opt}SUM(A)/opt, with opt=min⁡PSUM(P)\mathit{opt}=\min_P\mathrm{SUM}(P)opt=minP​SUM(P).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorems 3 and 4

For every N≥1N\ge1N≥1: every pure Nash equilibrium AAA of every symmetric linear congestion game with NNN players satisfies

SUM(A)≤5N−22N+1 SUM(P)for every profile P,\mathrm{SUM}(A)\le\frac{5N-2}{2N+1}\,\mathrm{SUM}(P)\quad\text{for every profile }P,SUM(A)≤2N+15N−2​SUM(P)for every profile P,

and some symmetric linear game with NNN players has a pure Nash equilibrium AAA and a profile PPP with SUM(P)>0\mathrm{SUM}(P)>0SUM(P)>0 and equality. Together these state that the pure price of anarchy of the class is exactly (5N−2)/(2N+1)(5N-2)/(2N+1)(5N−2)/(2N+1).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: β(α+1)≤13α2+53β2\beta(\alpha+1)\le\frac13\alpha^2+\frac53\beta^2β(α+1)≤31​α2+35​β2 for nonnegative integers α,β\alpha,\betaα,β.
  2. Theorem 3, proof: the Nash inequality of player iii against the strategy PjP_jPj​ of any player jjj.
  3. Theorem 3, proof: the bound on N ci(A)N\,c_i(A)Nci​(A) obtained by summing over jjj.
  4. Theorem 3, proof: the bound on SUM(A)\mathrm{SUM}(A)SUM(A) obtained by summing over iii.
  5. Theorem 3: the upper bound alone.
  6. Theorem 4: the matching instances alone.

Significance

The result separates symmetric from asymmetric games for every finite number of players: for N=2N=2N=2 the symmetric bound is 8/58/58/5, for N=3N=3N=3 it is 13/713/713/7, against 5/25/25/2 for asymmetric games with N≥3N\ge3N≥3 players. Theorem 4 shows the bound is tight, so the function N↦(5N−2)/(2N+1)N\mapsto(5N-2)/(2N+1)N↦(5N−2)/(2N+1) is the exact answer, not an artefact of the proof. The asymptotic value 5/25/25/2 coincides with the asymmetric one, which says that symmetry helps only by a vanishing amount for large populations. Later work on smoothness arguments (Roughgarden, STOC 2009) takes the 5/25/25/2 bound of this paper as its central example.

The theorems are proved in the paper; the authors print the proofs for identity latencies fe(k)=kf_e(k)=kfe​(k)=k and state that they extend to aek+bea_ek+b_eae​k+be​. No machine-checked proof of these bounds is known to exist. This mission produces a statement for general affine latencies with nonnegative coefficients, the affine forms of the intermediate inequalities, and an explicit family of instances for every NNN, all of which are reusable for the other entries of the paper's table.

Difficulty

The upper bound requires combining the N2N^2N2 deviation inequalities (player iii against the strategy of each player jjj in the comparison profile) and then bounding cross terms facility by facility; the step that needs care is that the bound of Lemma 1 holds for integer loads only and fails for real numbers, so any argument that relaxes loads to reals loses the constant. The asymmetric argument, which compares player iii only with its own optimal strategy PiP_iPi​, gives 5/25/25/2 and cannot see the dependence on NNN.

For the lower bound, the instance must be a Nash equilibrium against every strategy in the common strategy set, which contains the equilibrium strategies of all other players as well as the optimal ones. Exact equality of the ratio requires the block sizes to be tuned to NNN; verifying the equilibrium condition involves counting facilities shared by pairs and triples of players.

Formalization scope

Players are Fin N with N≥1N\ge1N≥1; facilities are an arbitrary finite type with decidable equality; strategies and profiles are Finsets of facilities, with feasibility a separate predicate. Latencies are real-valued functions of the natural-number load. Linear latencies are affine with nonnegative coefficients, as in Sect. 2 of the paper; the milestone inequalities carry the coefficients ae,bea_e,b_eae​,be​ explicitly and reduce to the printed displays when ae=1a_e=1ae​=1, be=0b_e=0be​=0. The Nash condition is in cost form. Upper bounds are stated against every feasible profile PPP, which is equivalent to the bound on SUM(A)/opt\mathrm{SUM}(A)/\mathit{opt}SUM(A)/opt without dividing by opt\mathit{opt}opt. All constants are computed in R\mathbb RR.

The lower bound requires SUM(P)>0\mathrm{SUM}(P)>0SUM(P)>0: without it the statement is satisfied by zero latencies or empty strategies, where both sides vanish. Symmetry is a hypothesis of the upper bound and a property of the instance; without it the upper bound is false, since asymmetric instances reach 5/25/25/2.

A complete development needs finite-sum manipulations (double counting ∑j∑e∈Pj=∑ene(P)\sum_j\sum_{e\in P_j}=\sum_e n_e(P)∑j​∑e∈Pj​​=∑e​ne​(P)), the integer inequality of Lemma 1, and an explicit facility type for the instance. The model layer is shared with the other missions of this series. Proofs of the milestones and alternative proofs of the bound are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060600
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar and A. Epstein, The Price of Routing Unsplittable Flow, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060599
  • E. Koutsoupias and C. Papadimitriou, Worst-case Equilibria, STACS 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38
  • T. Roughgarden and É. Tardos, How Bad Is Selfish Routing?, J. ACM 49(2), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1145/506147.506153
  • T. Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, Proc. 41st ACM STOC, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1536414.1536485
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Blackwell Approachability and No-Regret Learning are Equivalent 3: An Efficient Forecaster Whose (ℓ1, ε)-Calibration Rate Is at Most √(2/(εT))Research Paper

Calibrated forecasting

A forecaster announces, each day, a probability that it will rain; afterwards nature reveals whether it did. The forecaster is calibrated if, on the days on which it announced roughly 30%, it rained roughly 30% of the time, and likewise for every other announced value. Calibration is a minimal consistency requirement for probabilistic forecasts, used in meteorology, in the evaluation of probabilistic classifiers, and in game theory, where calibrated forecasts of the opponents' play lead to correlated equilibrium (Foster and Vohra, 1997).

Calibration is achievable even against an adversary who chooses the outcomes, provided the forecaster randomizes. Timeline:

  • 1998. Foster and Vohra construct an asymptotically calibrated randomized forecaster against an arbitrary outcome sequence.
  • 1999. Foster reduces calibration to Blackwell's approachability theorem by exhibiting, for each halfspace, a forecast that keeps the payoff inside it.
  • 2009. Mannor and Stoltz give an approachability-based calibration procedure concurrently with the paper below.
  • 2011. Abernethy, Bartlett and Hazan prove that Blackwell approachability and no-regret online linear optimization are equivalent, and use the equivalence to obtain an efficient calibrated forecaster: O(log⁡1/ε)O(\log 1/\varepsilon)O(log1/ε) time per round and calibration rate O(1/εT)O(1/\sqrt{\varepsilon T})O(1/εT​).

This mission formalizes the last result, Theorem 22 of the 2011 paper, in the explicit form given by its proof.

Setting

Fix a positive integer mmm and the grid width ε=1/m\varepsilon = 1/mε=1/m. Each round t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T the forecaster chooses a probability vector wtw_twt​ in the simplex Δm+1\Delta_{m+1}Δm+1​ over the grid indices i=0,…,mi = 0, \dots, mi=0,…,m, draws it∼wti_t \sim w_tit​∼wt​ and announces pt=it/mp_t = i_t/mpt​=it​/m. Nature then reveals yt∈{0,1}y_t \in \{0, 1\}yt​∈{0,1}.

Vectors live in Rm+1\mathbb R^{m+1}Rm+1 with the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​. The ℓ₁ norm is ∥x∥1=∑i∣xi∣\|x\|_1 = \sum_i |x_i|∥x∥1​=∑i​∣xi​∣, the ℓ₁ ball is B1(r)={y:∥y∥1≤r}B_1(r) = \{y : \|y\|_1 \le r\}B1​(r)={y:∥y∥1​≤r}, and the unit cube is B∞(1)={θ:∣θi∣≤1 for all i}B_\infty(1) = \{\theta : |\theta_i| \le 1 \text{ for all } i\}B∞​(1)={θ:∣θi​∣≤1 for all i}.

The calibration game (11) has payoff

u(w,y)=(w(0)(y−0m), w(1)(y−1m), …, w(m)(y−1))∈Rm+1.u(w, y) = \Bigl(w(0)\bigl(y - \tfrac0m\bigr),\ w(1)\bigl(y - \tfrac1m\bigr),\ \dots,\ w(m)(y - 1)\Bigr) \in \mathbb R^{m+1}.u(w,y)=(w(0)(y−m0​), w(1)(y−m1​), …, w(m)(y−1))∈Rm+1.

The (ℓ1,ε)(\ell_1, \varepsilon)(ℓ1​,ε)-calibration rate (Definition 19) of the announced forecasts is max⁡{0,∑i=0m∣1T∑t=1TI[pt=i/m](i/m−yt)∣−ε/2}\max\{0, \sum_{i=0}^m |\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb I[p_t = i/m](i/m - y_t)| - \varepsilon/2\}max{0,∑i=0m​∣T1​∑t=1T​I[pt​=i/m](i/m−yt​)∣−ε/2}. Replacing each indicator by its expectation wt(i)w_t(i)wt​(i) gives the rate of the forecast distributions,

CˉTε=max⁡{0, ∑i=0m∣1T∑t=1Twt(i)(im−yt)∣−ε2},\bar C^\varepsilon_T = \max\Bigl\{0,\ \sum_{i=0}^m \Bigl|\frac1T \sum_{t=1}^T w_t(i)\Bigl(\frac im - y_t\Bigr)\Bigr| - \frac\varepsilon2\Bigr\},CˉTε​=max{0, i=0∑m​​T1​t=1∑T​wt​(i)(mi​−yt​)​−2ε​},

which is max⁡{0,∥uˉT∥1−ε/2}\max\{0, \|\bar u_T\|_1 - \varepsilon/2\}max{0,∥uˉT​∥1​−ε/2} for the average payoff uˉT=1T∑tu(wt,yt)\bar u_T = \frac1T\sum_t u(w_t, y_t)uˉT​=T1​∑t​u(wt​,yt​).

The forecaster is Algorithm 5. It keeps a point θt\theta_tθt​ in the cube, starting from θ1=0\theta_1 = 0θ1​=0 with w1w_1w1​ arbitrary. After round ttt it takes a projected gradient step (Algorithm 4, online gradient descent) against the loss vector ft=−u(wt,yt)f_t = -u(w_t, y_t)ft​=−u(wt​,yt​):

θt+1=ΠB∞(1)(θt+η u(wt,yt)),\theta_{t+1} = \Pi_{B_\infty(1)}\bigl(\theta_t + \eta\, u(w_t, y_t)\bigr),θt+1​=ΠB∞​(1)​(θt​+ηu(wt​,yt​)),

where Π\PiΠ is the Euclidean projection. It then sets wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ to the output of the oracle Algorithm 3 on θt+1\theta_{t+1}θt+1​, which puts weight on at most two adjacent grid points where θ\thetaθ changes sign.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 22 in the form (14)

For m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, every outcome sequence y1,…,yT∈{0,1}y_1, \dots, y_T \in \{0, 1\}y1​,…,yT​∈{0,1} and every run of Algorithm 5 with η=(m+1)/T\eta = \sqrt{(m+1)/T}η=(m+1)/T​,

CˉTε≤2εT.\bar C^\varepsilon_T \le \sqrt{\frac{2}{\varepsilon T}}.CˉTε​≤εT2​​.

This is the bound CTε≤GD/TC^\varepsilon_T \le GD/\sqrt TCTε​≤GD/T​ of display (14) with the paper's constant G=2G = \sqrt 2G=2​.

Milestones

  1. Claim 1 (proof): min⁡∥y∥1≤ε/2∥x−y∥1=max⁡{0,−ε/2+∥x∥1}\min_{\|y\|_1 \le \varepsilon/2}\|x - y\|_1 = \max\{0, -\varepsilon/2 + \|x\|_1\}min∥y∥1​≤ε/2​∥x−y∥1​=max{0,−ε/2+∥x∥1​}.
  2. Display (13): for ∥x∥1>ε/2\|x\|_1 > \varepsilon/2∥x∥1​>ε/2, also =−ε/2−min⁡∥θ∥∞≤1⟨−x,θ⟩= -\varepsilon/2 - \min_{\|\theta\|_\infty \le 1}\langle -x, \theta\rangle=−ε/2−min∥θ∥∞​≤1​⟨−x,θ⟩.
  3. Algorithm 3: for every θ\thetaθ in the cube there is an output w∈Δm+1w \in \Delta_{m+1}w∈Δm+1​, and every output satisfies ⟨u(w,y),θ⟩≤ε/2\langle u(w, y), \theta\rangle \le \varepsilon/2⟨u(w,y),θ⟩≤ε/2 for all y∈[0,1]y \in [0, 1]y∈[0,1].
  4. Display (12): under that guarantee, max⁡{0,∥uˉT∥1−ε/2}≤1T(∑t⟨−ut,θt⟩−min⁡θ∈B∞(1)∑t⟨−ut,θ⟩)\max\{0, \|\bar u_T\|_1 - \varepsilon/2\} \le \frac1T\bigl(\sum_t \langle -u_t, \theta_t\rangle - \min_{\theta \in B_\infty(1)}\sum_t\langle -u_t, \theta\rangle\bigr)max{0,∥uˉT​∥1​−ε/2}≤T1​(∑t​⟨−ut​,θt​⟩−minθ∈B∞​(1)​∑t​⟨−ut​,θ⟩).
  5. Online gradient descent: regret at most DGTDG\sqrt TDGT​ with step η=D/(GT)\eta = D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​).
  6. Theorem 21 (response-satisfiability and approachability): for every y∈[0,1]y \in [0,1]y∈[0,1] some w∈Δm+1w \in \Delta_{m+1}w∈Δm+1​ has u(w,y)∈B1(ε/2)u(w, y) \in B_1(\varepsilon/2)u(w,y)∈B1​(ε/2); hence some algorithm choosing wtw_twt​ from y1,…,yt−1y_1, \dots, y_{t-1}y1​,…,yt−1​ drives the distance of the average payoff to B1(ε/2)B_1(\varepsilon/2)B1​(ε/2) to 000 against every outcome sequence in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Significance

The bound shows that a forecaster with logarithmic per-round cost has calibration error vanishing at rate T−1/2T^{-1/2}T−1/2 against every outcome sequence. Earlier calibrated forecasters required solving a linear program or computing a fixed point each round. The construction is also the paper's worked instance of its general equivalence: a calibration problem, posed as approachability of an ℓ₁ ball, is solved by a no-regret learner on the dual unit cube together with a halfspace oracle.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version is known to exist. The formalization makes explicit three points the paper leaves informal: the step size, the sign of the gradient step, and the gap between the forecast distributions and the sampled forecasts. The milestones are reusable on their own: the ℓ₁/ℓ∞ duality, and the regret bound of online gradient descent for linear losses on a general closed convex set.

Difficulty

The chain (12)–(14) looks like a direct composition, but each link has content. The oracle guarantee needs a case analysis over the sign pattern of θ\thetaθ, including the degenerate case θ(i+1)=0\theta(i+1) = 0θ(i+1)=0. The reduction (12) needs the duality (13) with attained minima, and it holds only outside the ball B1(ε/2)B_1(\varepsilon/2)B1​(ε/2). The regret bound of online gradient descent needs the non-expansiveness of the Euclidean projection and a telescoping argument. The tempting shortcut of quoting "OGD has regret O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​)" does not give the stated constant without fixing the step size.

Formalization scope

Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (m+1)), with grid index i∈{0,…,m}i \in \{0, \dots, m\}i∈{0,…,m} as Fin (m+1) and i/mi/mi/m as a real quotient; the ℓ₁ norm and the cube are written out coordinatewise. Rounds are t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T. Minima over sets are stated through IsLeast or as the infimum of the image of a nonempty bounded set. Algorithm 3 is a relation that allows every sign-change index the binary search might return. The projection is any Euclidean minimizer onto the cube.

Conventions and corrections, each disclosed in the item's Formalization Note:

  • Gradient-step sign. Algorithm 4 prints θt−ηut\theta_t - \eta u_tθt​−ηut​, but the proof runs the learner on the losses ft=−utf_t = -u_tft​=−ut​ (condition 2), so the step is θt+ηut\theta_t + \eta u_tθt​+ηut​. With the printed sign the bound fails.
  • Step size. The page sets η=O(T−1/2)\eta = O(T^{-1/2})η=O(T−1/2); the goal pins η=(m+1)/T\eta = \sqrt{(m+1)/T}η=(m+1)/T​, the standard tuning with radius m+1\sqrt{m+1}m+1​ of the cube and ∥ut∥2≤1\|u_t\|_2 \le 1∥ut​∥2​≤1. The page's D=1/εD = \sqrt{1/\varepsilon}D=1/ε​ is not the cube's diameter.
  • Forecast distributions. The rate is that of the distributions wtw_twt​, the expectation of the calibration vector over the forecaster's draws (Lemma 20). The high-probability statement for the sampled forecasts is not formalized, nor is the running-time claim.
  • Other misprints. Algorithm 3's header "w↦θw \mapsto \thetaw↦θ" is θ↦w\theta \mapsto wθ↦w, and the calibration vector has m+1m + 1m+1 coordinates, not ⌊ε−1⌋\lfloor \varepsilon^{-1} \rfloor⌊ε−1⌋.
  • Added hypotheses. m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and T≥1T \ge 1T≥1.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. The rate is defined from Definition 19's formula, not as a distance, and the step size is pinned. A free step size would make the bound false, and an empty oracle relation would make it vacuous; milestone 3's existence clause excludes the latter.

Contributions are welcome on each milestone. The online gradient descent bound and the ℓ₁/ℓ∞ duality are independent of calibration. The published one-step inequality LogRegretOCO.OGD.one_step_inequality is included as a reference item for the regret bound.

Selected references

  • J. Abernethy, P. L. Bartlett, E. Hazan, Blackwell Approachability and No-Regret Learning are Equivalent, COLT 2011, JMLR W&CP 19, pp. 27–46, 2011. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v19/abernethy11b.html
  • D. P. Foster, R. V. Vohra, Asymptotic calibration, Biometrika 85(2), 1998. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/85.2.379
  • D. P. Foster, A proof of calibration via Blackwell's approachability theorem, Games and Economic Behavior 29, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0724
  • D. P. Foster, R. V. Vohra, Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • S. Mannor, G. Stoltz, A geometric proof of calibration, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(4), 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0908.3576
  • M. Zinkevich, Online convex programming and generalized infinitesimal gradient ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing 3: Order-Oblivious Posted Prices 2-Approximate the Optimal Revenue under a Uniform Matroid ConstraintResearch Paper

Motivation

Myerson's optimal auction (Myerson 1981) maximizes a seller's expected revenue when buyers have independent private values, but it is a sealed-bid mechanism: every buyer reports a value, and the allocation and payments are computed from all reports at once. Real sellers more often post prices: buyers arrive, each sees a take-it-or-leave-it price, and buys or leaves. Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (arXiv:0907.2435) ask how much revenue such simple mechanisms lose. Their strongest notion is the order-oblivious posted-price mechanism (OPM): the prices are fixed in advance, and the guarantee must hold whatever order the buyers arrive in, even an adversarial one.

The tool behind the guarantee for sellers of kkk identical units is a prophet inequality. In the single-choice version, a gambler inspects independent random rewards one at a time and must accept or reject each on the spot; Krengel and Sucheston, and Samuel-Cahn (Ann. Probab. 1984), showed that a single fixed threshold earns at least half of what a prophet who sees all rewards earns. The paper extends Samuel-Cahn's threshold rule to kkk choices (Appendix D.2) and turns it into a revenue guarantee (Theorem 10).

Setting

There are nnn agents [n][n][n]. Agent iii's value viv_ivi​ for being served is drawn independently from a distribution FiF_iFi​ with density fif_ifi​; the virtual valuation is ϕi(v)=v−(1−Fi(v))/fi(v)\phi_i(v) = v - (1 - F_i(v))/f_i(v)ϕi​(v)=v−(1−Fi​(v))/fi​(v) (Definition 1), and FiF_iFi​ is regular if ϕi\phi_iϕi​ is non-decreasing (Definition 2). The seller may serve any set of agents in a downward-closed set system J\mathcal JJ; this mission uses the kkk-uniform matroid, where a set is feasible exactly when it has at most kkk members.

A mechanism MMM maps reported values v\mathbf vv to an allocation M(v)∈JM(\mathbf v) \in \mathcal JM(v)∈J and payments πi(v)\pi_i(\mathbf v)πi​(v). It is truthful if reporting the true value is a dominant strategy and no agent ever gets negative utility. Its expected revenue is RM=Ev[∑iπi(v)]\mathcal R^M = \mathbb E_{\mathbf v}[\sum_i \pi_i(\mathbf v)]RM=Ev​[∑i​πi​(v)], and RM\mathcal R^{\mathcal M}RM denotes the revenue of Myerson's mechanism, the largest over truthful mechanisms (Theorem 19).

Given prices p\mathbf pp and values v\mathbf vv, agent iii desires service if vi≥piv_i \ge p_ivi​≥pi​. Let Sv\mathcal S_{\mathbf v}Sv​ be the class of maximal feasible sets of desiring agents. When agents arrive in an arbitrary order and each buys if it desires service and can still be feasibly served, the set of buyers lies in Sv\mathcal S_{\mathbf v}Sv​. The paper's pessimistic revenue estimate is

Rpobl=Ev∼F min⁡S∈Sv∑i∈Spi.\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p} = \mathbb E_{\mathbf v \sim \mathbf F}\ \min_{S \in \mathcal S_{\mathbf v}} \sum_{i \in S} p_i .Rpobl​=Ev∼F​ S∈Sv​min​i∈S∑​pi​.

For the prophet inequality, X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent nonnegative random variables with order statistics X(1)≥⋯≥X(n)X_{(1)} \ge \dots \ge X_{(n)}X(1)​≥⋯≥X(n)​, and (x)+=max⁡(0,x)(x)^+ = \max(0, x)(x)+=max(0,x). The threshold rule with threshold ccc picks indices t1(c),…,tk(c)t_1(c), \dots, t_k(c)t1​(c),…,tk​(c), where ti(c)t_i(c)ti​(c) is the lesser of n−k+in-k+in−k+i and the iii-th smallest index jjj with Xj≥cX_j \ge cXj​≥c (or n−k+in - k + in−k+i if there is none). The numbers a∗a^*a∗ and b∗b^*b∗ are the unique solutions of

a=∑i=1kE(X(i)−a/k)+,b=∑i=1nE(Xi−b/k)+.a = \sum_{i=1}^k \mathbb E\big(X_{(i)} - a/k\big)^+, \qquad b = \sum_{i=1}^n \mathbb E\big(X_i - b/k\big)^+ .a=i=1∑k​E(X(i)​−a/k)+,b=i=1∑n​E(Xi​−b/k)+.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 9)

∃ p  ∀M truthful:RM≤2 Rpobl\exists\, \mathbf p\ \ \forall M \text{ truthful}:\qquad \mathcal R^M \le 2\, \mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}∃p  ∀M truthful:RM≤2Rpobl​

for every instance with regular distributions and a kkk-uniform matroid constraint. The prices are chosen once, before the mechanism it is compared with; this is the paper's "Rpobl\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}Rpobl​ 2-approximates RM\mathcal R^{\mathcal M}RM".

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 5): under regularity, the expected revenue of a truthful mechanism equals its expected virtual surplus E[∑i∈M(v)ϕi(vi)]\mathbb E[\sum_{i \in M(\mathbf v)} \phi_i(v_i)]E[∑i∈M(v)​ϕi​(vi​)] (with the lowest type receiving zero utility).
  2. a∗a^*a∗ and b∗b^*b∗ exist and are unique (App. D.2, p. 18).
  3. The claim a∗≤b∗a^* \le b^*a∗≤b∗ (App. D.2, p. 18).
  4. Theorem 24 (p. 18), the kkk-choice prophet inequality: for a∗≤kc≤b∗a^* \le k c \le b^*a∗≤kc≤b∗,
∑i=1kE[X(i)]≤2∑i=1kE[Xti(c)].\sum_{i=1}^k \mathbb E\big[X_{(i)}\big] \le 2 \sum_{i=1}^k \mathbb E\big[X_{t_i(c)}\big].i=1∑k​E[X(i)​]≤2i=1∑k​E[Xti​(c)​].

Significance

The theorem says that a seller of kkk identical units can fix one price per buyer, ignore the arrival order entirely, and still collect half of the optimal revenue. The factor 2 is tight: Appendix D.2 gives a single-item example with two buyers where no order-oblivious pricing does better. Corollary 11 extends the result to partition matroids, and Theorem 24 is reused for the graphical-matroid result (Theorem 12, App. D.3). Theorem 24 is a statement in optimal stopping independent of mechanism design, and kkk-choice prophet inequalities are now a standard tool for online allocation.

The results are proved in the paper (preprint arXiv:0907.2435v2; a conference version appeared at STOC 2010). To our knowledge none of them, nor any prophet inequality, has a machine-checked proof; Mathlib has independence of random variables but no order statistics, stopping-rule prophet inequalities, or Myerson's revenue characterization in this multi-agent dominant-strategy form. A related single-unit, Bayesian-incentive-compatible form of Proposition 1 exists on the platform (MechanismDesign.Auctions.revenue_eq_virtual_surplus), in a different model.

Difficulty

The threshold rule picks the first values above ccc, not the largest, and its picks are dependent random indices; the expectation E[Xti(c)]\mathbb E[X_{t_i(c)}]E[Xti​(c)​] does not factor. The obvious comparison of the gambler with the prophet term by term fails, because the gambler can exhaust its kkk picks on early, small values. The bound has to balance two events: either at least kkk values reach ccc, or a value is picked whenever it exceeds ccc; independence enters exactly in the second. The rule also has forced picks at the end of the sequence, which must be handled as stated.

On the mechanism side, Rpobl\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}Rpobl​ is a minimum over an adversarially chosen family, not the revenue of one run, so it cannot be read off from a single sequential mechanism. Proposition 1 needs the full revenue-equivalence argument: monotone allocations, the payment identity, and an integration by parts against the density.

Formalization scope

  • Distributions: each FiF_iFi​ has a bounded support [v‾i,v‾i][\underline v_i, \overline v_i][v​i​,vi​] with 0≤v‾i0 \le \underline v_i0≤v​i​, and a measurable density positive on it (a pinned convention; the paper says only "with density fif_ifi​"). Regularity is required on the support. The prior is the product of the marginals.
  • Mechanisms: deterministic, dominant-strategy incentive compatible and ex-post individually rational on the type space, with measurable allocation events and measurable, integrable payments. Payments of unserved agents are not forced to be zero.
  • RM\mathcal R^{\mathcal M}RM is not constructed. The goal is stated against every truthful mechanism, which by Theorem 19 is equivalent. Quantifier order matters: "for every mechanism there are prices" is a weaker statement and is not the goal.
  • Proposition 1 carries the normalization that an agent of the lowest type gets zero utility, which the paper presupposes on p. 12.
  • Rpobl\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}Rpobl​ is a genuine minimum over the finite, nonempty family Sv\mathcal S_{\mathbf v}Sv​; maximality is essential, since without it the empty set makes the estimate 000 and the goal false. Prices are arbitrary reals.
  • a∗a^*a∗ and b∗b^*b∗ are characterised by their equations as hypotheses, not defined by an infimum. Order statistics count multiplicity. Lean indices are 0-based. The threshold rule includes the page's forced picks ti(c)=n−k+it_i(c) = n - k + iti​(c)=n−k+i; it is not replaced by a pure threshold rule. Theorem 24 and the claims about a∗,b∗a^*, b^*a∗,b∗ assume 1≤k≤n1 \le k \le n1≤k≤n; the goal assumes nothing about kkk.
  • Out of scope: non-regular distributions (ironing), Corollary 11, and the p. 19 identity rewriting Rpobl\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}Rpobl​ as a sum of virtual values (a proof step, not a milestone).

Useful reusable infrastructure: order statistics and their measurability, Samuel-Cahn-type threshold rules, and Myerson's payment identity for dominant-strategy mechanisms. Proofs of any milestone, and supporting lemmas on these objects, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing, arXiv:0907.2435v2, 2010 (STOC 2010). https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.2435
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • E. Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of Threshold Stop Rules and Maximum for Independent Nonnegative Random Variables, Annals of Probability 12(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993150
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CombinatoricsMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing 2: Sequential Posted Prices e/(e−1)-Approximate the Optimal Revenue under a Partition Matroid ConstraintResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller who knows the distributions of buyers' values can maximise expected revenue with Myerson's optimal mechanism (Myerson 1981): collect bids, compute virtual values, serve a feasible set of maximum virtual surplus, and charge threshold payments. Real sellers seldom run such auctions. They post prices: a buyer is offered a take-it-or-leave-it price and either accepts or walks away. Posted prices need no bidding, involve no competition between buyers, and are trivially truthful. The question is how much revenue they give up.

Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (arXiv:0907.2435, STOC 2010) answer this for a range of feasibility constraints with a single construction, the sequential posted-price mechanism (SPM) S\mathcal SS. For general matroids it loses at most a factor 222 (Theorem 5). For uniform and partition matroids, that is, multi-unit sales and unions of multi-unit sales, it loses at most a factor e/(e−1)≈1.58e/(e-1)\approx1.58e/(e−1)≈1.58 (Theorem 6), and the paper shows this factor is tight for its mechanism. This mission targets Theorem 6.

Timeline. Myerson (1981) characterised the optimal single-parameter mechanism. Blumrosen and Holenstein (2008) showed that the best single-unit SPM can be a factor π/2\sqrt{\pi/2}π/2​ below Myerson's revenue even with i.i.d. buyers. Chawla, Hartline and Kleinberg (EC 2007) used posted prices to approximate multi-parameter unit-demand pricing. Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (2010) gave the matroid, partition-matroid and matroid-intersection bounds. Yan (SODA 2011) explained the e/(e−1)e/(e-1)e/(e−1) factor through the correlation gap of submodular functions and sharpened it for kkk units to 1−kke−k/k!1-k^ke^{-k}/k!1−kke−k/k!.

Setting

There are nnn agents. Agent iii has a private value viv_ivi​ for being served, drawn independently from a distribution FiF_iFi​ with density fif_ifi​. The virtual value is φi(v)=v−1−Fi(v)fi(v)\varphi_i(v)=v-\frac{1-F_i(v)}{f_i(v)}φi​(v)=v−fi​(v)1−Fi​(v)​, and FiF_iFi​ is regular if φi\varphi_iφi​ is non-decreasing. The seller may serve any set in a downward-closed family J⊆2[n]\mathcal J\subseteq2^{[n]}J⊆2[n].

A partition matroid assigns each agent iii to a part part(i)\mathrm{part}(i)part(i) and each part bbb a capacity cap(b)∈N\mathrm{cap}(b)\in\mathbb Ncap(b)∈N. A set is feasible iff it contains at most cap(b)\mathrm{cap}(b)cap(b) agents of every part bbb. With one part of capacity kkk this is the kkk-uniform matroid: at most kkk agents are served.

A truthful mechanism MMM maps a value vector v\mathbf vv to a feasible set M(v)M(\mathbf v)M(v) and payments πi(v)\pi_i(\mathbf v)πi​(v). It is dominant-strategy incentive compatible and individually rational. Its expected revenue is RM=E[∑iπi(v)]\mathcal R^M=\mathbb E[\sum_i\pi_i(\mathbf v)]RM=E[∑i​πi​(v)], and qiM=Pr⁡[i∈M(v)]q^M_i=\Pr[i\in M(\mathbf v)]qiM​=Pr[i∈M(v)] is its service probability for agent iii.

The sequential posted-price mechanism S\mathcal SS built from MMM sets the price pi=Fi−1(1−qiM)p_i=F_i^{-1}(1-q^M_i)pi​=Fi−1​(1−qiM​) for agent iii, so that agent iii accepts with probability exactly qiMq^M_iqiM​. It approaches the agents one at a time in decreasing order of price (σ\sigmaσ is the ordering). It offers agent iii the price pip_ipi​ if adding iii to the agents already served keeps the set feasible. The agent accepts iff pi≤vip_i\le v_ipi​≤vi​. Its expected revenue is Rpσ\mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p}Rpσ​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6, partition matroids

For every partition matroid, every truthful MMM, and S\mathcal SS built from MMM as above,

RM≤ee−1 Rpσ.\mathcal R^M\le\frac{e}{e-1}\,\mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p}.RM≤e−1e​Rpσ​.

Taking MMM to be Myerson's mechanism gives the paper's statement.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2 (regular case): RM≤∑ipiMqiM\mathcal R^M\le\sum_ip^M_iq^M_iRM≤∑i​piM​qiM​ with piM=Fi−1(1−qiM)p^M_i=F_i^{-1}(1-q^M_i)piM​=Fi−1​(1−qiM​).
  2. Rank bound (§4): ∑i∈SqiM≤rank⁡(S)\sum_{i\in S}q^M_i\le\operatorname{rank}(S)∑i∈S​qiM​≤rank(S) for every set SSS; for a part bbb this reads ∑part(i)=bqiM≤cap(b)\sum_{\mathrm{part}(i)=b}q^M_i\le\mathrm{cap}(b)∑part(i)=b​qiM​≤cap(b).
  3. Single-unit revenue formula (App. C.2): RS=∑kckpkqk\mathcal R^{\mathcal S}=\sum_kc_kp_kq_kRS=∑k​ck​pk​qk​ with ck=∏j<k(1−qj)c_k=\prod_{j<k}(1-q_j)ck​=∏j<k​(1−qj​), positions in offer order.
  4. Lemma 20: with ppp defined by ∑kpkqk=p∑kqk\sum_kp_kq_k=p\sum_kq_k∑k​pk​qk​=p∑k​qk​ (equation (2)) and prices decreasing, p∑kckqk≤∑kckpkqkp\sum_kc_kq_k\le\sum_kc_kp_kq_kp∑k​ck​qk​≤∑k​ck​pk​qk​.
  5. Display (3): if ∑kqk=s≤1\sum_kq_k=s\le1∑k​qk​=s≤1, then p∑kckqk=p(1−∏k(1−qk))≥p(1−(1−s/n)n)≥(1−1/e)psp\sum_kc_kq_k=p(1-\prod_k(1-q_k))\ge p(1-(1-s/n)^n)\ge(1-1/e)psp∑k​ck​qk​=p(1−∏k​(1−qk​))≥p(1−(1−s/n)n)≥(1−1/e)ps.
  6. Theorem 21: the goal for the 111-uniform matroid.
  7. Theorem 22: the goal for the kkk-uniform matroid, every kkk.

Significance

The theorem shows that a mechanism with no bidding loses at most about 37%37\%37% of the optimal revenue when the constraint is a union of multi-unit supplies. That covers selling several kinds of goods, each in limited stock, to single-minded buyers. The prices are computed once from the distributions. The order is fixed before any value is seen. No agent's payment depends on another agent's report. The factor is tight for this mechanism (App. C.2), and the same template (prices from service probabilities, decreasing order) gives factor 222 for all matroids and m+1m+1m+1 for intersections of mmm matroids.

On the formal side, the paper's results are proved but none is machine-checked as far as we know. The platform has Myerson-type results for a single unit with Bayesian incentive compatibility and a common support (Börgers), and for i.i.d. buyers with a fixed number of units (Talluri and van Ryzin). Neither covers independent, non-identical buyers under a set-system constraint with dominant-strategy truthfulness. A complete development would include the ex-ante revenue bound of Lemma 2 for regular distributions, which is reusable for any posted-price or prophet-inequality argument, and the 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e correlation-gap inequality.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares S\mathcal SS with Myerson's mechanism one agent at a time. That fails, because S\mathcal SS may stop offering to an agent once the units of its part are gone, and the agents blocked this way can be the ones Myerson's mechanism serves. The loss has to be bounded in aggregate, using only the ex-ante constraint ∑part(i)=bqi≤cap(b)\sum_{\mathrm{part}(i)=b}q_i\le\mathrm{cap}(b)∑part(i)=b​qi​≤cap(b). The single-unit case reduces to an inequality about products ∏(1−qj)\prod(1-q_j)∏(1−qj​). For kkk units, the printed proof (pp. 15–16) is an induction that compares the run with a hypothetical single-unit instance with probabilities qi/kq_i/kqi​/k. Its second case is informal, so a formal proof needs its own argument for the kkk-unit bound. Passing from uniform to partition matroids needs the observation that with a global order the run inside each part depends only on that part's agents. Lemma 2 needs the revenue-curve concavity that regularity gives, stated through densities rather than derivatives.

Formalization scope

  • Values. Each FiF_iFi​ has a density that is measurable and strictly positive on a bounded interval [v‾i,vˉi][\underline v_i,\bar v_i][v​i​,vˉi​] with 0≤v‾i0\le\underline v_i0≤v​i​, integrates to 111 there, and has no mass outside. The paper says only "with density fif_ifi​". This pin rules out point masses, so the randomised-price variant of S\mathcal SS never arises. The prior is the product of these laws.
  • Regularity is φi\varphi_iφi​ non-decreasing on the support, assumed for every agent in the goal, as in the paper's §4 analyses. The non-regular extension (second paragraph of Lemma 2, Appendix E) is out of scope.
  • Truthful means deterministic, dominant-strategy incentive compatible over the support, ex-post individually rational, feasible, with measurable allocations and integrable payments.
  • Prices are arguments tied to MMM by pi∈[v‾i,vˉi]p_i\in[\underline v_i,\bar v_i]pi​∈[v​i​,vˉi​] and Fi(pi)=1−qiMF_i(p_i)=1-q^M_iFi​(pi​)=1−qiM​. No inverse distribution function is defined.
  • Order. The order σ\sigmaσ is a permutation with σ(0)\sigma(0)σ(0) first, decreasing in price, and ties are arbitrary. It is global across parts. Parts of capacity 000 are allowed.
  • Constant. The constant is exactly e/(e−1)e/(e-1)e/(e−1).
  • No free prices. The theorem is not stated with free or existentially chosen prices. Prices are pinned to MMM's service probabilities, and S\mathcal SS uses the same constraint as MMM. A statement in which the prices could be chosen after the fact, or in which MMM were not required to be individually rational, would be a different or false theorem.
  • Every truthful MMM. The comparison is with every truthful MMM, not with a constructed Myerson mechanism. This form is at least as strong as the paper's, and it is what the paper's proof shows.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the algebraic milestones (Lemma 20, display (3)), the revenue formula, Lemma 2 (reusable payment-identity infrastructure for dominant-strategy mechanisms), and a correlation-gap argument for kkk units.

Selected references

  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. L. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing, STOC 2010; arXiv:0907.2435v2, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.2435
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • L. Blumrosen, T. Holenstein, Posted Prices vs. Negotiations: An Asymptotic Analysis, ACM EC 2008.
  • Q. Yan, Mechanism Design via Correlation Gap, ACM-SIAM SODA 2011.
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CombinatoricsMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing 1: Sequential Posted Prices 2-Approximate the Optimal Revenue under a Matroid ConstraintResearch Paper

Why posted prices

A seller who must decide whom to serve among several buyers with private values can, in principle, run Myerson's revenue-optimal mechanism: collect bids, compute virtual values, serve the feasible set of largest virtual surplus, and charge threshold payments (Myerson 1981). In practice sellers rarely do this. Retail, ticketing and online platforms mostly use posted prices: each buyer is offered a take-it-or-leave-it price and accepts if and only if the price does not exceed the buyer's value. Posted prices are simple to explain, are trivially truthful, and do not require buyers to reveal their values.

Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (arXiv:0907.2435, STOC 2010) asked how much revenue is lost by this simplification, and showed that for a wide range of feasibility constraints a sequential posted-price mechanism recovers a constant fraction of the optimal revenue. The matroid case, a factor of 2, is the first and most widely cited of their results. It is a revenue analogue of the prophet inequality and was one of the starting points of the literature on "simple versus optimal" mechanisms.

Setting

There are nnn single-parameter agents, indexed by [n][n][n], and one seller. Agent iii has a private value viv_ivi​ for being served, drawn independently from a distribution FiF_iFi​ with density fif_ifi​. The virtual valuation of agent iii is

ϕi(vi)=vi−1−Fi(vi)fi(vi),\phi_i(v_i) = v_i - \frac{1 - F_i(v_i)}{f_i(v_i)},ϕi​(vi​)=vi​−fi​(vi​)1−Fi​(vi​)​,

and FiF_iFi​ is regular if ϕi\phi_iϕi​ is non-decreasing.

The seller faces a feasibility constraint: a downward-closed family J\mathcal JJ of subsets of [n][n][n], the sets of agents that can be served together. The rank of a set SSS is rank⁡(S)=max⁡S′⊆S, S′∈J∣S′∣\operatorname{rank}(S) = \max_{S' \subseteq S,\, S' \in \mathcal J} |S'|rank(S)=maxS′⊆S,S′∈J​∣S′∣. The constraint is a matroid if it satisfies the augmentation axiom: whenever A,B∈JA, B \in \mathcal JA,B∈J and ∣A∣>∣B∣|A| > |B|∣A∣>∣B∣, some e∈A∖Be \in A \setminus Be∈A∖B has B∪{e}∈JB \cup \{e\} \in \mathcal JB∪{e}∈J. Examples are kkk identical units (kkk-uniform matroids) and disjoint markets with separate capacities (partition matroids).

A mechanism MMM maps reported values v\mathbf vv to a feasible set M(v)∈JM(\mathbf v) \in \mathcal JM(v)∈J of served agents and a payment πi(v)\pi_i(\mathbf v)πi​(v) for each agent. It is truthful if reporting the true value is a dominant strategy and no agent ends with negative utility. Its expected revenue is RM=E[∑iπi(v)]\mathcal R^M = \mathbb E[\sum_i \pi_i(\mathbf v)]RM=E[∑i​πi​(v)], and qiM=Pr⁡[i∈M(v)]q^M_i = \Pr[i \in M(\mathbf v)]qiM​=Pr[i∈M(v)] is the probability that it serves agent iii.

A sequential posted-price mechanism (SPM) with ordering σ\sigmaσ and prices p\mathbf pp approaches the agents in the order σ\sigmaσ. When agent iii's turn comes, if adding iii to the set AAA of agents served so far keeps AAA feasible, iii is offered price pip_ipi​ and is served (and pays pip_ipi​) if pi≤vip_i \le v_ipi​≤vi​; otherwise iii is blocked. Its expected revenue is Rpσ\mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p}Rpσ​.

The mechanism S\mathcal SS of the paper sets pi=Fi−1(1−qiM)p_i = F_i^{-1}(1 - q^M_i)pi​=Fi−1​(1−qiM​), so that agent iii accepts an offer with probability exactly qiMq^M_iqiM​, and approaches the agents in decreasing order of price.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5

For regular, independent values and a matroid constraint, for every truthful mechanism MMM and the SPM S\mathcal SS built from its service probabilities,

RM≤2 Rpσ.\mathcal R^M \le 2\, \mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p}.RM≤2Rpσ​.

Taking MMM to be Myerson's optimal mechanism gives the paper's statement that S\mathcal SS 2-approximates the optimal revenue.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 5): the expected revenue of a truthful mechanism equals its expected virtual surplus E[∑i∈M(v)ϕi(vi)]\mathbb E[\sum_{i \in M(\mathbf v)} \phi_i(v_i)]E[∑i∈M(v)​ϕi​(vi​)].
  2. Lemma 2 (p. 5): RM≤∑ipiMqiM\mathcal R^M \le \sum_i p^M_i q^M_iRM≤∑i​piM​qiM​ with piM=Fi−1(1−qiM)p^M_i = F_i^{-1}(1 - q^M_i)piM​=Fi−1​(1−qiM​).
  3. Revenue of an SPM (§2.2, p. 4): Rpσ=∑iciqipi\mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p} = \sum_i c_i q_i p_iRpσ​=∑i​ci​qi​pi​, where cic_ici​ is the probability that agent iii is offered service and qi=1−Fi(pi)q_i = 1 - F_i(p_i)qi​=1−Fi​(pi​).
  4. Rank bound (§4, p. 6): ∑i∈SqiM≤rank⁡(S)\sum_{i \in S} q^M_i \le \operatorname{rank}(S)∑i∈S​qiM​≤rank(S) for every set SSS.
  5. Lost revenue (proof of Theorem 5, p. 7): in any run under a matroid, with prices in decreasing order and weights qqq satisfying the rank bound, ∑i blockedpiqi≤∑i servedpi\sum_{i \text{ blocked}} p_i q_i \le \sum_{i \text{ served}} p_i∑i blocked​pi​qi​≤∑i served​pi​.
  6. Half of the benchmark (p. 7): under the same conditions, ∑ipiqi≤2Rpσ\sum_i p_i q_i \le 2 \mathcal R^\sigma_{\mathbf p}∑i​pi​qi​≤2Rpσ​.

Significance

The theorem shows that under a matroid constraint the optimal mechanism's advantage over a single round of posted prices is at most a factor of 2, uniformly over all regular distributions. Prices, rather than an auction, then suffice up to a constant, which justifies posted pricing in settings where an auction is impractical. The same argument, with the matroid replaced by an intersection of mmm matroids, gives the paper's Theorems 7 and 8, and the bound underlies the analysis of VCG with reserve prices (Theorem 32). Lemma 2's benchmark ∑ipiMqiM\sum_i p^M_i q^M_i∑i​piM​qiM​ became a standard tool for "ex ante relaxation" arguments.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires Myerson's revenue characterization in a multi-agent, dominant-strategy setting with a general feasibility constraint, which Lean's libraries do not have, and a probabilistic analysis of a sequential process over a product measure. Related formalizations exist for narrower models: the single-unit, Bayesian incentive compatible revenue identity MechanismDesign.Auctions.revenue_eq_virtual_surplus (Börgers' textbook, common support) and the i.i.d. multi-unit RevenueManagement.revenue_equivalence. Neither covers per-agent supports, set-system constraints or dominant-strategy truthfulness.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the SPM with the hypothetical mechanism that ignores the feasibility constraint, whose revenue is exactly ∑ipiqi\sum_i p_i q_i∑i​pi​qi​. The SPM loses the revenue of agents who would have accepted but are blocked. The difficulty is that blocking is correlated with the values of earlier agents, and the lost revenue must be bounded by revenue actually collected. A naive per-agent charge fails in a general matroid, because one served agent can block many others; the bound has to use the matroid's rank structure together with the decreasing price order.

On the mechanism side, Lemma 2 needs the full Myerson theory: monotonicity of truthful allocations, the payment identity, and an optimization over interim allocation rules with a fixed service probability, where regularity is used.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace CHMSPricing.SpmMatroid. Agents are Fin n. The following conventions are fixed.

  • Distributions. Each FiF_iFi​ is given by a measurable density, strictly positive on a bounded interval [v‾i,v‾i][\underline v_i, \overline v_i][v​i​,vi​] with 0≤v‾i<v‾i0 \le \underline v_i < \overline v_i0≤v​i​<vi​, integrating to 111 there, with no mass outside. There are no point masses, so the randomized variant of S\mathcal SS in §4 does not arise. The prior is the product measure.
  • Regularity. Monotone non-decreasing virtual values on the support (Definition 2). All goals assume regular distributions, as the body's analyses do; the non-regular case (the second paragraph of Lemma 2, Appendix E) uses randomized prices and is out of scope.
  • Truthfulness. Deterministic mechanisms, dominant-strategy incentive compatible with deviations within the support, ex-post individually rational, feasible on the type space, with measurable allocation events and measurable integrable payments. Payments of unserved agents are not forced to zero.
  • Benchmark. The goal is stated for every truthful MMM, with S\mathcal SS built from MMM's own service probabilities; this is stronger than comparing with Myerson's mechanism alone and avoids constructing it.
  • Prices. pi=Fi−1(1−qi)p_i = F_i^{-1}(1 - q_i)pi​=Fi−1​(1−qi​) is passed as an argument with the hypotheses pi∈[v‾i,v‾i]p_i \in [\underline v_i, \overline v_i]pi​∈[v​i​,vi​] and Fi(pi)=1−qiF_i(p_i) = 1 - q_iFi​(pi​)=1−qi​, rather than through a generalized inverse.
  • SPM. Positions are 000-based; the price belongs to the agent; acceptance is pi≤vip_i \le v_ipi​≤vi​; ties in the decreasing price order are arbitrary, and the goal holds for every such order.
  • Proposition 1 additionally assumes the normalization that an agent with value v‾i\underline v_iv​i​ has zero utility, which is how the paper's payments are pinned down.

The goal cannot be trivialized by a free choice of prices: the prices are tied to the mechanism's service probabilities, and the SPM uses the same matroid as the mechanism. Individual rationality is essential, since without it a "truthful" mechanism can extract unbounded revenue.

A complete development needs Myerson's lemma for dominant-strategy single-parameter mechanisms, a quantile/revenue-curve argument under regularity, matroid span and rank facts for the paper's finite set systems, and independence arguments for a sequential process on a product measure. The rank bound and the deterministic lost-revenue inequality are independent of the probabilistic parts and are good first contributions; the Myerson-side lemmas are reusable for the other missions of this series.

Selected references

  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing, arXiv:0907.2435v2, 2010; STOC 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.2435
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1):58–73, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • J. Bulow, J. Roberts, The Simple Economics of Optimal Auctions, Journal of Political Economy 97(5):1060–1090, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1086/261643
  • R. Kleinberg, S. M. Weinberg, Matroid Prophet Inequalities, STOC 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4764
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The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games IV: For Symmetric Games the Maximum Social Cost Price of Anarchy Is at Most 5/2Research Paper

Motivation

The price of anarchy measures how much a system of selfish agents loses compared with a centrally optimized one: it is the worst ratio, over all Nash equilibria, between the social cost of the equilibrium and the optimal social cost. Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou introduced it in 1999 (Worst-case equilibria, STACS 1999), and bounding it for routing and congestion games became a central topic of algorithmic game theory. Congestion games model routing in networks, load balancing on machines and any setting where agents choose sets of shared resources whose cost grows with their usage.

Christodoulou and Koutsoupias (The price of anarchy of finite congestion games, STOC 2005) determined the pure price of anarchy of finite (atomic, unweighted) congestion games with linear latencies for two social costs — the sum of the players' costs and the maximum cost of a player — and for asymmetric and symmetric games. Awerbuch, Azar and Epstein obtained the 5/25/25/2 bound for the sum independently in the same proceedings (The price of routing unsplittable flow, STOC 2005). This mission is the fourth of a series that formalizes the paper: the symmetric games with the maximum social cost (Sect. 3.4). For asymmetric games the maximum social cost has price of anarchy Θ(N)\Theta(\sqrt N)Θ(N​) (mission III); symmetry brings it down to a constant.

Setting

A congestion game has a finite set of players N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}, a finite set EEE of facilities, for each player iii a collection Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ of pure strategies (each a subset of EEE), and for each facility eee a latency function fe:N→Rf_e:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rfe​:N→R. A pure strategy profile A=(A1,…,An)A=(A_1,\dots,A_n)A=(A1​,…,An​) picks Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ for every player. The load ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) is the number of players whose strategy contains eee, and the cost of player iii is

ci(A)=∑e∈Aife(ne(A)).c_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i} f_e\big(n_e(A)\big).ci​(A)=e∈Ai​∑​fe​(ne​(A)).

A profile AAA is a pure Nash equilibrium if no player can lower its cost by changing only its own strategy: ci(A)≤ci(A−i,S)c_i(A)\le c_i(A_{-i},S)ci​(A)≤ci​(A−i​,S) for every iii and every S∈ΣiS\in\Sigma_iS∈Σi​, where (A−i,S)(A_{-i},S)(A−i​,S) replaces AiA_iAi​ by SSS.

The maximum social cost is MAX(A)=max⁡ici(A)\mathrm{MAX}(A)=\max_{i} c_i(A)MAX(A)=maxi​ci​(A) and the sum social cost is SUM(A)=∑ici(A)\mathrm{SUM}(A)=\sum_i c_i(A)SUM(A)=∑i​ci​(A). Latencies are linear when fe(k)=aek+bef_e(k)=a_e k+b_efe​(k)=ae​k+be​ with ae,be≥0a_e,b_e\ge 0ae​,be​≥0. The game is symmetric when all players share one strategy set, Σi=Σ\Sigma_i=\SigmaΣi​=Σ. The pure price of anarchy for the maximum social cost is

PA=sup⁡A NashMAX(A)min⁡PMAX(P).\mathrm{PA}=\sup_{A\ \text{Nash}}\frac{\mathrm{MAX}(A)}{\min_{P}\mathrm{MAX}(P)}.PA=A Nashsup​minP​MAX(P)MAX(A)​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorems 7 and 8

For every symmetric linear congestion game with at least one player, every pure Nash equilibrium AAA and every pure strategy profile PPP,

MAX(A)≤52 MAX(P),\mathrm{MAX}(A)\le\tfrac52\,\mathrm{MAX}(P),MAX(A)≤25​MAX(P),

and for every N≥3N\ge3N≥3 there is a symmetric linear congestion game with NNN players, a pure Nash equilibrium AAA and a profile PPP that minimizes the maximum social cost, with MAX(P)>0\mathrm{MAX}(P)>0MAX(P)>0 and

MAX(A)=5N+12N+2 MAX(P).\mathrm{MAX}(A)=\frac{5N+1}{2N+2}\,\mathrm{MAX}(P).MAX(A)=2N+25N+1​MAX(P).

The second part shows that the constant 5/25/25/2 of the first is tight as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 7, proof (first display). In a symmetric linear game, a Nash equilibrium cost is bounded by the cost of every strategy PjP_jPj​ evaluated at loads ne(A)+1n_e(A)+1ne​(A)+1: ci(A)≤∑e∈Pjfe(ne(A)+1)c_i(A)\le\sum_{e\in P_j}f_e(n_e(A)+1)ci​(A)≤∑e∈Pj​​fe​(ne​(A)+1).
  2. Theorem 7, proof (second display). Summed over jjj: N⋅ci(A)≤∑ene(P)fe(ne(A)+1)N\cdot c_i(A)\le\sum_e n_e(P)f_e(n_e(A)+1)N⋅ci​(A)≤∑e​ne​(P)fe​(ne​(A)+1).
  3. Lemma 1. β(α+1)≤13α2+53β2\beta(\alpha+1)\le\frac13\alpha^2+\frac53\beta^2β(α+1)≤31​α2+35​β2 for nonnegative integers α,β\alpha,\betaα,β.
  4. Theorem 7, proof (Lemma 1 step). ∑ene(P)fe(ne(A)+1)≤13SUM(A)+53SUM(P)\sum_e n_e(P)f_e(n_e(A)+1)\le\frac13\mathrm{SUM}(A)+\frac53\mathrm{SUM}(P)∑e​ne​(P)fe​(ne​(A)+1)≤31​SUM(A)+35​SUM(P).
  5. Theorem 1. For linear congestion games, SUM(A)≤52SUM(P)\mathrm{SUM}(A)\le\frac52\mathrm{SUM}(P)SUM(A)≤25​SUM(P) at every pure Nash equilibrium AAA.
  6. Theorem 7 and Theorem 8 as separate statements.

Significance

The result says that in symmetric congestion games with linear costs no player at an equilibrium is ever more than 5/25/25/2 times worse off than the worst-off player under the best allocation, regardless of the number of players. This contrasts with the asymmetric case, where the ratio grows like N\sqrt NN​ (Theorems 5 and 6 of the paper), and it fills the symmetric–maximum entry of the paper's Table 1. Together with the sum bounds it completes the picture of pure equilibria under linear latencies that later work on smoothness and robust price of anarchy (Roughgarden, Intrinsic robustness of the price of anarchy, STOC 2009) generalized.

The results are proved in the paper, which only displays the identity-latency case and states that the arguments extend to affine latencies. No machine-checked version of any of the paper's bounds is known to exist; the mission produces a formal proof of the affine statement, a checked construction for the lower bound (the paper verifies its Nash condition only partly), and a congestion-game layer shared with the rest of the series.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt bounds the worst player's cost by its deviation to its own optimal strategy only, as in the proof for the sum; that gives one inequality per player and loses the factor NNN needed to compare with MAX(P)\mathrm{MAX}(P)MAX(P). Without symmetry the factor cannot be recovered at all (Theorem 6 of the paper). For the lower bound, the difficulty is that the construction must be a Nash equilibrium against all strategies in the common set — including the other players' equilibrium strategies and the isolated strategy of the maximum-cost player — while the paper only writes out the deviation to the optimal strategies; its parameters are left as the solution of a linear equation, which must be chosen integral for every N≥3N\ge3N≥3.

Formalization scope

Players form a finite type (Fin N in the lower bound) and facilities a finite type; profiles are maps from players to Finsets of facilities, with feasibility Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ as a separate predicate IsProfile. Latencies are real-valued functions on natural-number loads; "linear" means affine with nonnegative coefficients. MAX is the maximum over a nonempty player set. Upper bounds are stated for every Nash equilibrium and every feasible profile, never dividing by the optimum. The lower bound asserts that PPP minimizes MAX over all profiles and that MAX(P)>0\mathrm{MAX}(P)>0MAX(P)>0: without positivity the equality would be satisfied by a game with all costs 000, and without symmetry or the full common strategy set the instance would not be the paper's. The lower bound gives PA≥5N+12N+2\mathrm{PA}\ge\frac{5N+1}{2N+2}PA≥2N+25N+1​ for the instance, which is what the paper's proof shows.

The development needs sums over facilities exchanged with sums over players (∑j∑e∈Pjg(e)=∑ene(P)g(e)\sum_j\sum_{e\in P_j}g(e)=\sum_e n_e(P)g(e)∑j​∑e∈Pj​​g(e)=∑e​ne​(P)g(e)), monotonicity of affine latencies, and an explicit finite instance. The congestion-game definitions are shared with the other missions of the series and will be merged with them; Lemma 1 and Theorem 1 are also milestones of mission I. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative constructions for Theorem 8, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The price of anarchy of finite congestion games, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060600
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar and A. Epstein, The price of routing unsplittable flow, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060599
  • E. Koutsoupias and C. Papadimitriou, Worst-case equilibria, STACS 1999, LNCS 1563. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38
  • R. W. Rosenthal, A class of games possessing pure-strategy Nash equilibria, International Journal of Game Theory 2, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01737559
  • T. Roughgarden, Intrinsic robustness of the price of anarchy, Proc. 41st ACM STOC, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1536414.1536430
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games I: The Pure Price of Anarchy of the Average Social Cost Is 5/2Research Paper

Motivation

When many independent users share a resource whose cost grows with use (links of a network, servers, machines), each user chooses for itself, and the outcome is a Nash equilibrium rather than a socially optimal allocation. The price of anarchy, introduced by Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou (STACS 1999), measures the cost of this decentralisation: the worst ratio between the social cost of an equilibrium and the optimal social cost. It has become a standard yardstick in algorithmic game theory, network routing and the design of distributed protocols.

Christodoulou and Koutsoupias (STOC 2005) determined the price of anarchy of finite congestion games with linear latencies, the atomic, unweighted counterpart of selfish routing. This mission formalizes the central entry of their table: pure equilibria, general (asymmetric) strategy sets, and the average social cost.

Timeline:

  • 1973. Rosenthal defines congestion games and shows that they always have pure Nash equilibria (IJGT 2).
  • 1999. Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou define the price of anarchy, for load balancing on parallel links (STACS 1999).
  • 2002. Roughgarden and Tardos prove that the price of anarchy of non-atomic selfish routing with linear latencies is 4/34/34/3 (J. ACM 49).
  • 2005. Christodoulou and Koutsoupias prove that for finite (atomic) congestion games with linear latencies the pure price of anarchy of the average social cost is exactly 5/25/25/2; independently, Awerbuch, Azar and Epstein obtain 2.52.52.5 for unweighted and (3+5)/2≈2.618(3+\sqrt5)/2\approx2.618(3+5​)/2≈2.618 for weighted games (STOC 2005).
  • 2009. Roughgarden shows that this type of bound extends to mixed, correlated and coarse correlated equilibria (STOC 2009).

Setting

A congestion game has a finite set NNN of players, a finite set EEE of facilities, for every player iii a set Σi⊆2E\Sigma_i\subseteq 2^EΣi​⊆2E of pure strategies (each a set of facilities), and for every facility eee a latency function fef_efe​ giving the cost of eee to each of its users as a function of how many users it has. A pure strategy profile A=(A1,…,An)A=(A_1,\dots,A_n)A=(A1​,…,An​) picks Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ for each player. The load ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) is the number of players iii with e∈Aie\in A_ie∈Ai​, and player iii pays

ci(A)=∑e∈Aife(ne(A)).c_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i}f_e\bigl(n_e(A)\bigr).ci​(A)=e∈Ai​∑​fe​(ne​(A)).

The profile AAA is a pure Nash equilibrium if no player can lower its cost by switching alone: ci(A)≤ci(A−i,S)c_i(A)\le c_i(A_{-i},S)ci​(A)≤ci​(A−i​,S) for all iii and all S∈ΣiS\in\Sigma_iS∈Σi​, where (A−i,S)(A_{-i},S)(A−i​,S) replaces AiA_iAi​ by SSS. The social cost is SUM(A)=∑i∈Nci(A)\mathrm{SUM}(A)=\sum_{i\in N}c_i(A)SUM(A)=∑i∈N​ci​(A), which is ∣N∣|N|∣N∣ times the average cost of a player. Latencies are linear: fe(k)=aek+bef_e(k)=a_ek+b_efe​(k)=ae​k+be​ with ae,be≥0a_e,b_e\ge0ae​,be​≥0. The game is asymmetric in the sense that each player has its own strategy set (symmetric games, where all Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ coincide, are a special case).

The pure price of anarchy of the average social cost is

PA=sup⁡A NashSUM(A)opt,opt=min⁡PSUM(P),PA=\sup_{A\text{ Nash}}\frac{\mathrm{SUM}(A)}{\mathrm{opt}},\qquad \mathrm{opt}=\min_{P}\mathrm{SUM}(P),PA=A Nashsup​optSUM(A)​,opt=Pmin​SUM(P),

the minimum taken over pure strategy profiles. In Lean these objects are CongestionGame, load, cost, IsProfile, IsPureNash, sumCost and IsLinear in the namespace CongestionPoA.AsymSum.

Formalization targets

Goal: the pure price of anarchy is exactly 5/2

The goal theorem pure_poa_sum_eq_five_halves is the conjunction of Theorems 1 and 2 of the paper:

for every linear game, Nash A and profile P:SUM(A)≤52 SUM(P),\text{for every linear game, Nash } A \text{ and profile } P:\quad \mathrm{SUM}(A)\le\tfrac52\,\mathrm{SUM}(P),for every linear game, Nash A and profile P:SUM(A)≤25​SUM(P), for every N≥3 there are a linear game with N players, Nash A and profile P:SUM(A)=52 SUM(P).\text{for every } N\ge3 \text{ there are a linear game with } N \text{ players, Nash } A \text{ and profile } P:\quad \mathrm{SUM}(A)=\tfrac52\,\mathrm{SUM}(P).for every N≥3 there are a linear game with N players, Nash A and profile P:SUM(A)=25​SUM(P).

The first part is the upper bound; the second shows that it is attained for every number of players from three on.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: β(α+1)≤13α2+53β2\beta(\alpha+1)\le\frac13\alpha^2+\frac53\beta^2β(α+1)≤31​α2+35​β2 for nonnegative integers α,β\alpha,\betaα,β.
  2. Deviation inequality (proof of Theorem 1): at a Nash equilibrium AAA, ci(A)≤ci(A−i,Pi)≤∑e∈Pife(ne(A)+1)c_i(A)\le c_i(A_{-i},P_i)\le\sum_{e\in P_i}f_e(n_e(A)+1)ci​(A)≤ci​(A−i​,Pi​)≤∑e∈Pi​​fe​(ne​(A)+1).
  3. Summing over players (proof of Theorem 1): SUM(A)≤∑e∈Ene(P) fe(ne(A)+1)\mathrm{SUM}(A)\le\sum_{e\in E}n_e(P)\,f_e(n_e(A)+1)SUM(A)≤∑e∈E​ne​(P)fe​(ne​(A)+1).
  4. Theorem 1: the upper bound SUM(A)≤52SUM(P)\mathrm{SUM}(A)\le\frac52\mathrm{SUM}(P)SUM(A)≤25​SUM(P).
  5. Theorem 2: the matching instances for every N≥3N\ge3N≥3.

Significance

The value 5/25/25/2 is the benchmark for atomic congestion with affine costs. It is the reference point for the later results of the paper (the symmetric case (5N−2)/(2N+1)(5N-2)/(2N+1)(5N−2)/(2N+1), the maximum social cost Θ(N)\Theta(\sqrt N)Θ(N​), mixed equilibria (3+5)/2(3+\sqrt5)/2(3+5​)/2) and for a large literature on coordination mechanisms, taxes and the price of stability, which compare their guarantees against it. The bound is also the standard example of what later became the smoothness framework, through which the same constant governs mixed and coarse correlated equilibria and hence no-regret learning outcomes.

Both theorems are proved in the paper; nothing here is open. The proofs for affine latencies, however, are only indicated: the paper displays the identity case fe(k)=kf_e(k)=kfe​(k)=k and states that the arguments extend. The mission states the affine case and asks for complete machine-checked proofs, including the lower-bound construction, which the paper describes and declares "not hard to verify". No machine-checked proof of these results is on the platform.

Difficulty

The Nash conditions give one inequality per player, each mixing the equilibrium loads ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) with the strategies PiP_iPi​ of the comparison profile. Bounding the loads crudely, for instance by the number of players, gives a ratio that grows with NNN; the constant 5/25/25/2 requires comparing the cross term ∑ene(P) ne(A)\sum_e n_e(P)\,n_e(A)∑e​ne​(P)ne​(A) with both social costs simultaneously and with the right weights. The integrality of the loads matters at that point: the natural pointwise inequality is false for real arguments, so a proof that treats loads as real numbers cannot reach 5/25/25/2.

For the lower bound, a Nash equilibrium must be verified against every unilateral deviation of every player, for all N≥3N\ge3N≥3 at once, in a construction with cyclic indices. The case N=2N=2N=2 is genuinely different (the paper states that its price of anarchy is 222), so the argument has to use N≥3N\ge3N≥3.

Formalization scope

Players and facilities are finite types; a profile is a map from players to finite sets of facilities, and feasibility (Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​) is a separate predicate. Latencies are real-valued functions of the natural-number load, and "linear" means affine with nonnegative coefficients. The upper bound is stated multiplicatively, for every Nash AAA and every feasible PPP, which is equivalent to PA≤5/2PA\le5/2PA≤5/2 and avoids dividing by opt\mathrm{opt}opt. The lower bound quantifies over players Fin N, N≥3N\ge3N≥3, and existentially over a finite facility type, a linear game, a Nash equilibrium and an optimal feasible profile of positive social cost. The positivity rules out the trivializing witness: in the all-zero latency game every profile is a Nash equilibrium and 0=52⋅00=\frac52\cdot00=25​⋅0. The Nash condition is the paper's cost form; it agrees with the payoff-form AGT.IsPureNash of agt_games for payoffs −ci-c_i−ci​.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the comparison profile PPP must be feasible (otherwise SUM(P)\mathrm{SUM}(P)SUM(P) could be 000 by letting players use no facility), the upper bound covers all affine latencies rather than only fe(k)=kf_e(k)=kfe​(k)=k, and the lower-bound instance must have linear latencies with nonnegative coefficients.

A complete development needs finite double counting (regrouping ∑i∑e∈Pi\sum_i\sum_{e\in P_i}∑i​∑e∈Pi​​ by facilities), monotonicity of affine latencies, and a decidable or explicit check of the lower-bound game. The congestion-game layer is reused by the other missions of this series. Proofs of individual milestones, and alternative proofs of the upper bound, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060600
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar and A. Epstein, The Price of Routing Unsplittable Flow, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060599
  • E. Koutsoupias and C. Papadimitriou, Worst-case Equilibria, STACS 1999, LNCS 1563. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38
  • R. W. Rosenthal, A Class of Games Possessing Pure-Strategy Nash Equilibria, International Journal of Game Theory 2, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01737559
  • T. Roughgarden and É. Tardos, How Bad Is Selfish Routing?, Journal of the ACM 49(2), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1145/506147.506153
  • T. Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, Proc. 41st ACM STOC, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1536414.1536485
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Machine LearningMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

How Much Data Is Sufficient to Learn High-Performing Algorithms? Generalization Guarantees for Data-Driven Algorithm Design 2: Neutral Affine Maximizers Have Pseudo-Dimension at Least ⌊n/2⌋Research Paper

Motivation

In data-driven algorithm design, an algorithm or mechanism comes with a vector of tunable parameters ρ\rhoρ, and the parameters are chosen by optimizing average performance over sample instances drawn from an unknown distribution. How many samples suffice for the empirical optimum to be near-optimal in expectation is governed by the pseudo-dimension of the class U={uρ}\mathcal U=\{u_\rho\}U={uρ​} of performance functions, where uρ(x)u_\rho(x)uρ​(x) is the performance of the parameter ρ\rhoρ on instance xxx. Balcan, DeBlasio, Dick, Kingsford, Sandholm and Vitercik (arXiv:1908.02894v4, 2021) give a general upper bound on Pdim(U)\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)Pdim(U) for classes whose dual functions are piecewise structured (their Theorem 3.3, the subject of mission 1 of this series), and apply it across integer programming, computational biology, clustering and mechanism design.

A general upper bound raises the question of whether it can be improved. Section 5 of the paper answers it for one application: neutral affine maximizers (NAMs), a family of voting mechanisms studied by Roberts (1979), Mishra and Sen (2012) and Nath and Sandholm (2019). For NAMs with nnn agents and mmm alternatives the general theorem gives Pdim(U)=O(nln⁡m)\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)=O(n\ln m)Pdim(U)=O(nlnm), and Theorem 5.2 shows a lower bound linear in nnn. So the sample complexity of tuning a NAM by sampling cannot be reduced below order nnn by a sharper analysis, and the general bound is tight up to logarithmic factors.

Setting

There are nnn agents and mmm alternatives. Agent iii has a value vi(j)∈Rv_i(j)\in\mathbb Rvi​(j)∈R for each alternative j∈[m]j\in[m]j∈[m]; a valuation profile is v=(v1,…,vn)∈Rnmv=(v_1,\dots,v_n)\in\mathbb R^{nm}v=(v1​,…,vn​)∈Rnm.

A NAM is specified by a weight vector ρ=(ρ[1],…,ρ[n])∈R≥0n\rho=(\rho[1],\dots,\rho[n])\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0}ρ=(ρ[1],…,ρ[n])∈R≥0n​ in which at least one agent has weight zero; an agent with ρ[i]=0\rho[i]=0ρ[i]=0 is a sink agent. The NAM's outcome on a profile vvv is an alternative maximizing the weighted value,

ψρ(v)∈argmax⁡j∈[m] ∑i=1nρ[i] vi(j).\psi_\rho(v)\in\operatorname*{argmax}_{j\in[m]}\ \sum_{i=1}^n\rho[i]\,v_i(j).ψρ​(v)∈j∈[m]argmax​ i=1∑n​ρ[i]vi​(j).

Its utility is the social welfare of that outcome,

uρ(v)=∑i=1nvi(ψρ(v)),u_\rho(v)=\sum_{i=1}^n v_i\bigl(\psi_\rho(v)\bigr),uρ​(v)=i=1∑n​vi​(ψρ​(v)),

and the class studied is U={uρ∣ρ∈R≥0n, {i∣ρ[i]=0}≠∅}\mathcal U=\{u_\rho \mid \rho\in\mathbb R^n_{\ge0},\ \{i\mid\rho[i]=0\}\ne\emptyset\}U={uρ​∣ρ∈R≥0n​, {i∣ρ[i]=0}=∅}. NAMs also charge VCG-style payments that are redistributed to the sink agents; these do not enter uρu_\rhouρ​.

A class H\mathcal HH of real-valued functions on a set YYY shatters points y1,…,yNy_1,\dots,y_Ny1​,…,yN​ if there are thresholds z1,…,zN∈Rz_1,\dots,z_N\in\mathbb Rz1​,…,zN​∈R such that every pattern b∈{0,1}Nb\in\{0,1\}^Nb∈{0,1}N is realized by some h∈Hh\in\mathcal Hh∈H, in the sense that h(yℓ)>zℓh(y_\ell)>z_\ellh(yℓ​)>zℓ​ exactly when bℓ=1b_\ell=1bℓ​=1. The pseudo-dimension Pdim(H)\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal H)Pdim(H) is the largest NNN for which some NNN points are shattered. In Lean: a profile is v : Fin n → Fin m → ℝ, the outcome rule is ψ, the utility is welfare ψ ρ, the class is namClass ψ, and shattering is the published FoundationsML.Regression.Shatters.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2, corrected

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1, every m≥2m\ge2m≥2 and every tie-breaking rule,

Pdim(U) ≥ ⌊n2⌋.\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)\ \ge\ \Bigl\lfloor\frac n2\Bigr\rfloor .Pdim(U) ≥ ⌊2n​⌋.

The printed statement reads Pdim(U)≥n/2\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)\ge n/2Pdim(U)≥n/2; see Formalization scope for why the floor is needed.

Milestones: the two claims of the proof (p. 24)

The proof fixes N=⌊n/2⌋N=\lfloor n/2\rfloorN=⌊n/2⌋ explicit profiles v(1),…,v(N)v^{(1)},\dots,v^{(N)}v(1),…,v(N) and, for each bit vector b∈{0,1}Nb\in\{0,1\}^Nb∈{0,1}N, an explicit weight vector ρ∈{0,1}n\rho\in\{0,1\}^nρ∈{0,1}n (both are definitions of this mission). The two milestones are the claims the proof makes about them: for every ℓ∈[N]\ell\in[N]ℓ∈[N] and ε∈(0,12)\varepsilon\in(0,\tfrac12)ε∈(0,21​),

bℓ=0 ⟹ uρ(v(ℓ))=ε,bℓ=1 ⟹ uρ(v(ℓ))=1.b_\ell=0\ \Longrightarrow\ u_\rho\bigl(v^{(\ell)}\bigr)=\varepsilon,\qquad b_\ell=1\ \Longrightarrow\ u_\rho\bigl(v^{(\ell)}\bigr)=1 .bℓ​=0 ⟹ uρ​(v(ℓ))=ε,bℓ​=1 ⟹ uρ​(v(ℓ))=1.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.2 is the paper's evidence that its main upper bound cannot be improved in general by more than logarithmic factors: for NAMs the upper bound is O(nln⁡m)O(n\ln m)O(nlnm) and the lower bound is of order nnn. Through the standard link between pseudo-dimension and uniform convergence, it also means that any learner choosing NAM weights from samples needs a number of samples growing with the number of agents, whatever tie-breaking rule the mechanism uses.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it, or of any pseudo-dimension lower bound for a mechanism class, was found on Prove2Me. This mission produces a Lean model of NAM outcomes and welfare that does not fix a tie-breaking rule, an explicit lower-bound construction stated as definitions, and a pseudo-dimension lower bound in the vocabulary of the published FoundationsML pseudo-dimension items. It complements mission 1, which formalizes the matching upper-bound machinery.

Difficulty

The mathematical content is a single explicit construction, and the work lies in stating and verifying it at full generality rather than in a deep argument. Three points make the naive transcription wrong. First, the printed bound n/2n/2n/2 is false at n=1n=1n=1 and is not what the proof establishes for odd nnn; the even-nnn reduction must be replaced by a statement in ⌊n/2⌋\lfloor n/2\rfloor⌊n/2⌋. Second, the outcome ψρ(v)\psi_\rho(v)ψρ​(v) is defined by an argmax with unspecified tie-breaking, so the claims must hold for every maximizer; this requires showing the relevant maximizers are unique on the constructed profiles, not reading off a convenient one. Third, the construction embeds ⌊n/2⌋\lfloor n/2\rfloor⌊n/2⌋ indices into the nnn agents twice (as ℓ\ellℓ and ⌊n/2⌋+ℓ\lfloor n/2\rfloor+\ell⌊n/2⌋+ℓ), and the printed index condition for the second alternative is a typo; an off-by-one in this embedding silently breaks both claims. Finally, every constructed ρ\rhoρ must be admissible: it needs a sink agent, which holds only because N≥1N\ge1N≥1 or because nnn is odd and the last agent keeps weight 000.

Formalization scope

Representation. Agents are Fin n, alternatives Fin m, profiles Fin n → Fin m → ℝ, all 0-based: the paper's agent iii is i - 1, and its first and second alternatives are 0 and 1. Bits are Bool with true for 111. An outcome rule is any ψ : (Fin n → ℝ) → (Fin n → Fin m → ℝ) → Fin m with IsArgmaxSelector ψ, which requires ψ ρ v to maximize ∑ i, ρ i * v i j for every ρ and v; the theorem and both claims are stated for every such ψ. "Pdim(U)≥N\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)\ge NPdim(U)≥N" is the existence of an NNN-tuple of profiles shattered by namClass ψ in the sense of FoundationsML.Regression.Shatters, whose strict threshold t i < g (z i) shatters the same tuples as the paper's sign convention.

Corrections and readings of the printed text.

  1. The bound is ⌊n/2⌋\lfloor n/2\rfloor⌊n/2⌋ (natural-number division n / 2) instead of n/2n/2n/2. The proof assumes nnn even; at n=1n=1n=1 the only admissible ρ\rhoρ is 000, so U\mathcal UU is a single function and Pdim(U)=0<12\mathrm{Pdim}(\mathcal U)=0<\tfrac12Pdim(U)=0<21​.
  2. The hypotheses n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and m≥2m\ge2m≥2 are explicit. For n=0n=0n=0 no weight vector has a zero coordinate and U=∅\mathcal U=\emptysetU=∅; for m=1m=1m=1 the class is a single function. The proof takes m=2m=2m=2; the statement is for every m≥2m\ge2m≥2, with value 000 on every further alternative in the constructed profiles.
  3. The set-builder "{ρ[i]∣i=0}≠∅\{\rho[i]\mid i=0\}\ne\emptyset{ρ[i]∣i=0}=∅" in Theorem 5.2 is read as {i∣ρ[i]=0}≠∅\{i\mid\rho[i]=0\}\ne\emptyset{i∣ρ[i]=0}=∅, as written in Lemma 5.1.
  4. The construction's condition "ℓ=n/2+i\ell=n/2+iℓ=n/2+i" for vi(ℓ)(2)=εv_i^{(\ell)}(2)=\varepsilonvi(ℓ)​(2)=ε is read as i=n/2+ℓi=n/2+\elli=n/2+ℓ, as the paper's own n=6n=6n=6 example shows. The milestone texts are verbatim and keep the printed "vn/2+ℓ(ℓ)(1)v^{(\ell)}_{n/2+\ell}(1)vn/2+ℓ(ℓ)​(1)", which should read "(2)(2)(2)".

Ruled-out trivializations. Fixing one tie-breaking rule would state a special case and is excluded by quantifying over all argmax selectors. Dropping the sink-agent condition, or allowing n=0n=0n=0 or m=1m=1m=1, would change the class or make the statement vacuous or false; the conventions above exclude all three.

Infrastructure. Only Mathlib finite sums over Fin and the published Shatters definition are needed. The NAM model (IsNAMParam, IsArgmaxSelector, welfare, namClass) is reusable for any further statement about learning NAM parameters, including the matching O(nln⁡m)O(n\ln m)O(nlnm) upper bound once mission 1's general theorem is available. Proofs of the two claims, of the admissibility of the constructed weight vectors, and of the goal are all welcome.

Selected references

  • M.-F. Balcan, D. DeBlasio, T. Dick, C. Kingsford, T. Sandholm, E. Vitercik, How Much Data Is Sufficient to Learn High-Performing Algorithms? Generalization Guarantees for Data-Driven Algorithm Design, arXiv:1908.02894v4, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.02894v4
  • K. Roberts, The characterization of implementable social choice rules, in J.-J. Laffont (ed.), Aggregation and Revelation of Preferences, North-Holland, 1979 (reference [86] of the paper).
  • D. Mishra, A. Sen, Roberts' theorem with neutrality: a social welfare ordering approach, Games and Economic Behavior 75(1):283–298, 2012 (reference [74] of the paper).
  • S. Nath, T. Sandholm, Efficiency and budget balance in general quasi-linear domains, Games and Economic Behavior 113:673–693, 2019 (reference [78] of the paper).
  • D. Pollard, Convergence of Stochastic Processes, Springer, 1984 (pseudo-dimension; reference [83] of the paper).
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Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality I: Bayes Rationality at Every State Yields Exactly the Correlated Equilibrium DistributionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Nash equilibrium is the standard solution concept for strategic games, but it is usually justified by appeal to what players "would" do once they somehow coordinate on a profile. Correlated equilibrium, introduced by Aumann (J. Math. Econ. 1, 1974), enlarges the set of outcomes by letting players condition their actions on correlated private signals. In Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality (Econometrica 55, 1987), Aumann gave the concept a decision-theoretic foundation: if the players share a common prior over the states of the world and each player maximizes expected utility given his information at every state, then what they play is a correlated equilibrium — and every correlated equilibrium arises this way. The result is a standard entry point to the epistemic foundations of game theory, and correlated equilibria are central in algorithmic game theory because no-swap-regret learning dynamics converge to them (Foster–Vohra 1997; Hart–Mas-Colell 2000).

Timeline:

  • 1974, Aumann: correlated equilibrium defined, in a measure-theoretic model with subjective probabilities and information σ-fields.
  • 1987, Aumann: the Main Theorem (Bayes rationality at every state under a common prior implies correlated equilibrium play) and its converse, in a finite model with information partitions.

Setting

A game GGG in strategic form has players iii, action sets SiS^iSi, action nnn-tuples s∈S=S1×⋯×Sns\in S=S^1\times\dots\times S^ns∈S=S1×⋯×Sn, and payoffs hi(s)∈Rh^i(s)\in\mathbb Rhi(s)∈R.

A correlated strategy nnn-tuple is a function f:Γ→Sf:\Gamma\to Sf:Γ→S on a finite probability space (Γ,q)(\Gamma,q)(Γ,q), with q≥0q\ge 0q≥0 and ∑γq(γ)=1\sum_\gamma q(\gamma)=1∑γ​q(γ)=1. Its expected payoff is Ehi(f)=∑γq(γ)hi(f(γ))Eh^i(f)=\sum_\gamma q(\gamma)h^i(f(\gamma))Ehi(f)=∑γ​q(γ)hi(f(γ)). For gi:Γ→Sig^i:\Gamma\to S^igi:Γ→Si, the profile (f−i,gi)(f^{-i},g^i)(f−i,gi) replaces player iii's coordinate of fff by gig^igi. The function fff is a correlated equilibrium (Definition 2.1) if

Ehi(f) ≥ Ehi(f−i,gi)(2.2)Eh^i(f)\ \ge\ Eh^i(f^{-i},g^i)\qquad(2.2)Ehi(f) ≥ Ehi(f−i,gi)(2.2)

for every player iii and every gig^igi that is a function of fif^ifi (i.e. gi=φ∘fig^i=\varphi\circ f^igi=φ∘fi). The distribution of fff assigns to each s∈Ss\in Ss∈S the number q{f−1(s)}q\{f^{-1}(s)\}q{f−1(s)}, and a correlated equilibrium distribution (c.e.d.) is the distribution of some correlated equilibrium.

An information system consists of a finite set Ω\OmegaΩ of states of the world, a common prior ppp on Ω\OmegaΩ, an information partition Pi\mathcal P^iPi of Ω\OmegaΩ for each player, and action functions si:Ω→Si\mathbf s^i:\Omega\to S^isi:Ω→Si with s=(s1,…,sn)\mathbf s=(\mathbf s^1,\dots,\mathbf s^n)s=(s1,…,sn), each si\mathbf s^isi constant on the elements of Pi\mathcal P^iPi (each player knows his own action). For a random variable xxx, E(x∣Pi)(ω)E(x\mid\mathcal P^i)(\omega)E(x∣Pi)(ω) is the ppp-average of xxx over the element of Pi\mathcal P^iPi containing ω\omegaω. Player iii is Bayes rational at ω\omegaω if

E(hi(s)∣Pi)(ω) ≥ E(hi(s−i,a)∣Pi)(ω)for every a∈Si.E\big(h^i(\mathbf s)\mid\mathcal P^i\big)(\omega)\ \ge\ E\big(h^i(\mathbf s^{-i},a)\mid\mathcal P^i\big)(\omega)\quad\text{for every }a\in S^i .E(hi(s)∣Pi)(ω) ≥ E(hi(s−i,a)∣Pi)(ω)for every a∈Si.

Formalization targets

Goal: Main Theorem with its converse

Q is a c.e.d. of G  ⟺  ∃ information system (Ω,p,(Pi),s): every player is Bayes rational at every state, and Q(a)=p{s=a} ∀a.Q\ \text{is a c.e.d. of }G\iff\exists\ \text{information system }(\Omega,p,(\mathcal P^i),\mathbf s):\ \text{every player is Bayes rational at every state, and } Q(a)=p\{\mathbf s=a\}\ \forall a.Q is a c.e.d. of G⟺∃ information system (Ω,p,(Pi),s): every player is Bayes rational at every state, and Q(a)=p{s=a} ∀a.

This is the two-sided statement the paper announces in its introduction (p. 2) and closes in Sect. 4d (p. 11): "under Bayesian rationality, the set of all information systems corresponds precisely to the set of all correlated equilibria."

Milestones

  1. Main Theorem, proof: summing the cell-wise inequalities over the partition, Ehi(s−i,gi)≤Ehi(s)Eh^i(\mathbf s^{-i},g^i)\le Eh^i(\mathbf s)Ehi(s−i,gi)≤Ehi(s) for gig^igi constant on the cells of Pi\mathcal P^iPi.
  2. Main Theorem, proof: s\mathbf ss itself is a correlated equilibrium on (Ω,p)(\Omega,p)(Ω,p).
  3. Main Theorem (p. 7): the distribution of s\mathbf ss is a c.e.d.
  4. Sect. 4d: in the system generated by fff (partitions generated by fif^ifi), Bayes rationality everywhere is equivalent to (2.2).
  5. Sect. 4d: every correlated equilibrium is realized by a Bayes-rational information system with the same distribution.

The mission also states, as a supporting lemma without a milestone, the cell-wise step of the proof of the Main Theorem: Bayes rationality at every state gives E(hi(s−i,gi)∣P)≤E(hi(s)∣P)E(h^i(\mathbf s^{-i},g^i)\mid P)\le E(h^i(\mathbf s)\mid P)E(hi(s−i,gi)∣P)≤E(hi(s)∣P) on every cell PPP for gig^igi constant on cells.

Significance

The theorem identifies correlated equilibrium as the outcome of individual Bayesian decision making under a common prior, without any assumption that players randomize or that their choices are independent. It shows that the Nash equilibrium's independence requirement is not implied by rationality alone, and it is the template for later epistemic characterizations of solution concepts. On the computational side, correlated equilibrium distributions form a polytope described by linear inequalities (the companion mission of this series), which is why they are the tractable equilibrium notion in algorithmic game theory.

The result is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked formalization known to this mission. Formalizing it pins down the exact role of the standing assumptions — finiteness, a common prior, measurability of each player's action with respect to his own partition, rationality at every state — and of the conditional expectation on cells of probability zero. The definitions (information systems, Bayes rationality, correlated equilibria as functions on a finite probability space) are reusable for later formalizations of the paper's Sect. 5 (subjective correlated equilibrium) and of other epistemic results.

Difficulty

The mathematics is short; the difficulty lies in the bookkeeping that the paper's notation hides. The hypothesis is interim (a conditional inequality at each state), while Definition 2.1 is ex ante (an unconditional inequality). Passing between them requires the law of total expectation over a partition whose cells may have probability zero, where conditional expectations are undefined. Deviations in Definition 2.1 are functions of fif^ifi, not arbitrary maps, and must be shown constant on cells, which uses measurability of si\mathbf s^isi. A tempting first idea — that rationality against every fixed action already gives rationality against every deviation — fails without measurability: a player who does not know his own action could be rational at each state against constant deviations while a deviation φ∘si\varphi\circ\mathbf s^iφ∘si varies inside his cells. The converse direction needs an information system that satisfies every axiom of the goal's right-hand side, not just one that is Bayes rational.

Formalization scope

  • Players form a finite type ι with decidable equality; action sets S i are arbitrary types (the paper's finiteness of SiS^iSi is not used); payoffs are h : ι → (∀ i, S i) → ℝ.
  • Probability spaces are finite types with a real weight vector satisfying AGT.IsLottery (from the published definition agt_games). State spaces and the witnessing probability spaces of a c.e.d. range over Type; for finite sets this loses nothing.
  • Partitions are Setoids. The Common Prior Assumption is built into the information system, which has a single prior. Measurability of each action function is a field of the structure.
  • Conditional expectation on a cell is a ratio of finite sums; on a cell of probability zero Lean returns 000, so Bayes rationality at such states holds vacuously. The prior is not required to have full support. This matches the paper, whose argument multiplies each cell inequality by the cell's probability.
  • Deviations in Definition 2.1 are exactly the compositions φ∘fi\varphi\circ f^iφ∘fi; neither all maps nor only constant maps. A c.e.d. requires a genuine probability vector, ruling out the trivializing reading in which the zero weight function witnesses every QQQ.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general law-of-total-expectation lemma for finite partitions, and lemmas relating distr to sums over action profiles.

Selected references

  • R. J. Aumann, Correlated Equilibrium as an Expression of Bayesian Rationality, Econometrica 55 (1987), no. 1, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911154
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974), 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997), 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium, Econometrica 68 (2000), 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
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Linear OptimizationMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design VII: Crémer–McLean Full Surplus Extraction with Correlated TypesTextbook

Motivation

Bayesian mechanism design asks which collective decisions and payments a designer can implement when every agent holds private information, the type, drawn from a commonly known prior. Most of the classical theory (Myerson's optimal auction, the Myerson–Satterthwaite impossibility, the public goods results) assumes that types are independent. Once types are correlated, as they are when bidders' values share a common component, the theory changes in a way that is best read as a paradox: Crémer and McLean (Econometrica 1988) showed that a designer can then extract the entire surplus, leaving agents no information rents. This mission formalizes Chapter 6 of Börgers, An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design (Oxford University Press 2015), which sets up Bayesian mechanism design in general, treats independent types, and proves the Crémer–McLean theorem, together with the one numbered result of Chapter 9, the impossibility theorem of Jehiel and Moldovanu for interdependent values.

Timeline of the results formalized here:

  • Rochet (1987) characterized implementable decision rules by cyclical monotonicity; Proposition 6.1 is its interim version for independent types.
  • Crémer and McLean (1988): under their condition on the prior, every direct mechanism can be made Bayesian incentive-compatible without changing its decision rule or interim payments (Proposition 6.4).
  • Krishna and Maenner (2001): revenue equivalence for convex type sets and convex utilities (Proposition 6.2).
  • Jehiel and Moldovanu (2001): with interdependent values, efficient decisions are generically not Bayesian implementable (Proposition 9.1).
  • Kosenok and Severinov (2008): an identifiability condition added to Crémer–McLean gives ex post budget balance as well (Proposition 6.6).

Setting

There are finitely many agents i∈Ii \in Ii∈I and a set AAA of alternatives. Agent iii has a type θi∈Θi\theta_i \in \Theta_iθi​∈Θi​ and utility ui(a,θi)−tiu_i(a,\theta_i) - t_iui​(a,θi​)−ti​ from alternative aaa and payment tit_iti​. Types θ=(θ1,…,θN)∈Θ=∏iΘi\theta = (\theta_1,\dots,\theta_N) \in \Theta = \prod_i \Theta_iθ=(θ1​,…,θN​)∈Θ=∏i​Θi​ are drawn from a common prior μ\muμ; μ(⋅∣θi)\mu(\cdot\mid\theta_i)μ(⋅∣θi​) is the conditional distribution of the others' types θ−i\theta_{-i}θ−i​ given θi\theta_iθi​. Types are independent if μ(⋅∣θi)\mu(\cdot\mid\theta_i)μ(⋅∣θi​) does not depend on θi\theta_iθi​.

A direct mechanism (q,t1,…,tN)(q, t_1,\dots,t_N)(q,t1​,…,tN​) is a decision rule q:Θ→Aq:\Theta\to Aq:Θ→A and payment rules ti:Θ→Rt_i:\Theta\to\mathbb Rti​:Θ→R. It is Bayesian incentive-compatible (BIC) if for every iii and all θi,θi′\theta_i,\theta_i'θi​,θi′​,

∫Θ−iui(q(θi,θ−i),θi)−ti(θi,θ−i) dμ(θ−i∣θi) ≥ ∫Θ−iui(q(θi′,θ−i),θi)−ti(θi′,θ−i) dμ(θ−i∣θi).\int_{\Theta_{-i}} u_i(q(\theta_i,\theta_{-i}),\theta_i) - t_i(\theta_i,\theta_{-i})\,d\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i) \ \ge\ \int_{\Theta_{-i}} u_i(q(\theta_i',\theta_{-i}),\theta_i) - t_i(\theta_i',\theta_{-i})\,d\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i).∫Θ−i​​ui​(q(θi​,θ−i​),θi​)−ti​(θi​,θ−i​)dμ(θ−i​∣θi​) ≥ ∫Θ−i​​ui​(q(θi′​,θ−i​),θi​)−ti​(θi′​,θ−i​)dμ(θ−i​∣θi​).

The interim decision rule Qi(θi)Q_i(\theta_i)Qi​(θi​) is the distribution of q(θi,θ−i)q(\theta_i,\theta_{-i})q(θi​,θ−i​) given θi\theta_iθi​, and the interim expected payment is Ti(θi)=∫ti(θi,θ−i) dμ(θ−i∣θi)T_i(\theta_i) = \int t_i(\theta_i,\theta_{-i})\,d\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i)Ti​(θi​)=∫ti​(θi​,θ−i​)dμ(θ−i​∣θi​). A mechanism is ex post budget balanced if ∑iti(θ)=0\sum_i t_i(\theta) = 0∑i​ti​(θ)=0 for every θ\thetaθ, and ex ante budget balanced if ∫Θ∑iti dμ=0\int_\Theta \sum_i t_i\,d\mu = 0∫Θ​∑i​ti​dμ=0.

In §6.4 every Θi\Theta_iΘi​ is finite and μ(θ)>0\mu(\theta) > 0μ(θ)>0 for every θ\thetaθ. The prior satisfies the Crémer–McLean condition if for no agent iii and type θi\theta_iθi​ there are weights λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 on Θi∖{θi}\Theta_i\setminus\{\theta_i\}Θi​∖{θi​} with

μ(θ−i∣θi)=∑θi′≠θiλ(θi′) μ(θ−i∣θi′)for all θ−i.\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i) = \sum_{\theta_i'\ne\theta_i}\lambda(\theta_i')\,\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i')\quad\text{for all }\theta_{-i}.μ(θ−i​∣θi​)=θi′​=θi​∑​λ(θi′​)μ(θ−i​∣θi′​)for all θ−i​.

Identifiability requires that for every full-support distribution ν≠μ\nu\ne\muν=μ some agent's type θi\theta_iθi​ has a belief ν(⋅∣θi)\nu(\cdot\mid\theta_i)ν(⋅∣θi​) that is not a nonnegative combination of the beliefs μ(⋅∣θi′)\mu(\cdot\mid\theta_i')μ(⋅∣θi′​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Crémer–McLean (Proposition 6.4)

If μ\muμ satisfies the Crémer–McLean condition, then for every direct mechanism (q,t)(q,t)(q,t) there is a BIC direct mechanism (q,t′)(q,t')(q,t′) with

∑θ−iti(θi,θ−i) μ(θ−i∣θi)=∑θ−iti′(θi,θ−i) μ(θ−i∣θi)for all i,θi.\sum_{\theta_{-i}} t_i(\theta_i,\theta_{-i})\,\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i) = \sum_{\theta_{-i}} t_i'(\theta_i,\theta_{-i})\,\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i)\quad\text{for all } i,\theta_i.θ−i​∑​ti​(θi​,θ−i​)μ(θ−i​∣θi​)=θ−i​∑​ti′​(θi​,θ−i​)μ(θ−i​∣θi​)for all i,θi​.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 6.1 (independent types): qqq is part of a BIC mechanism iff it is interim cyclically monotone, ∑κ=1k−1(∫Aui(a,θiκ+1) dQi(θiκ)−∫Aui(a,θiκ) dQi(θiκ))≤0\sum_{\kappa=1}^{k-1}\big(\int_A u_i(a,\theta_i^{\kappa+1})\,dQ_i(\theta_i^\kappa) - \int_A u_i(a,\theta_i^\kappa)\,dQ_i(\theta_i^\kappa)\big)\le 0∑κ=1k−1​(∫A​ui​(a,θiκ+1​)dQi​(θiκ​)−∫A​ui​(a,θiκ​)dQi​(θiκ​))≤0 for every cycle θik=θi1\theta_i^k = \theta_i^1θik​=θi1​.
  2. Proposition 6.2 (independent types, convex type sets, convex utilities): two BIC mechanisms with Qi′=QiQ_i' = Q_iQi′​=Qi​ have Ti′=Ti+τiT_i' = T_i + \tau_iTi′​=Ti​+τi​.
  3. Proposition 6.3 (independent types): every ex ante budget balanced mechanism has an equivalent ex post budget balanced one.
  4. Proposition 6.5 (Farkas's alternative), already proved on the platform as Polyhedral.farkas_lemma.
  5. Proposition 6.6 (Kosenok–Severinov): under Crémer–McLean and identifiability, every ex ante budget balanced mechanism has an equivalent BIC and ex post budget balanced one.
  6. Proposition 9.1 (Jehiel–Moldovanu): in the linear interdependent-values model, under a regularity condition on first best rules and the weight condition αaii/αbii≠∑jαaji/∑jαbji\alpha^i_{ai}/\alpha^i_{bi}\ne\sum_j\alpha^i_{aj}/\sum_j\alpha^i_{bj}αaii​/αbii​=∑j​αaji​/∑j​αbji​ for some i,a,bi,a,bi,a,b, no first best direct mechanism is BIC. It uses its own model (§9.3) and is not on the goal's proof path.

Significance

The Crémer–McLean theorem says that, with correlated finite types, incentive compatibility imposes essentially no constraint: every decision rule and every interim payment rule can be implemented. In a single-unit auction this gives full surplus extraction. The result is the benchmark against which the literature on risk aversion, limited liability, collusion and the genericity of priors (Robert 1991, Laffont–Martimort 2000, Heifetz–Neeman 2006) measures its departures, and Proposition 6.6 extends it to budget-balanced mechanisms, which is what bilateral trade and public goods applications need. Propositions 6.1–6.3 are the independent-types counterpart that the correlated case breaks: they show why revenue equivalence and the ex ante/ex post budget-balance equivalence hold there and fail here. Proposition 9.1 shows the opposite failure, for interdependent values, where efficient decisions cannot be implemented even without participation or budget constraints.

All results are proved in the literature (Kosenok–Severinov's proof is omitted in the book). Apart from Farkas's alternative (Proposition 6.5), which is proved on the platform, none of them is formalized in Mathlib or on the platform; the platform's other mechanism design results (dominant-strategy results in a valuation model, revenue equivalence for symmetric independent auctions) do not cover correlated types.

Difficulty

For the goal the difficulty is the uniformity of the construction: a single payment adjustment must make truth-telling optimal against every possible deviation of every type of every agent, while leaving each type's expected payment unchanged. The obvious scoring-rule adjustment, charging −ln⁡μ(θ−i∣θi′)-\ln\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i')−lnμ(θ−i​∣θi′​), changes interim payments, and removing that change is where the Crémer–McLean condition enters. For Proposition 6.2 the envelope argument must handle convex type sets that are not open and utilities that are only convex, not differentiable. For Proposition 9.1 the obvious argument differentiates interim utility twice; the proposition does not assume that interim utility is twice differentiable, so that regularity has to be derived from the hypotheses on the interim probabilities.

Formalization scope

Three definition files carry the three models. Independent types (§6.2–6.3): type sets are arbitrary measurable spaces, the prior is the product of probability measures ρi\rho_iρi​, and interim quantities are integrals against it. Finite correlated types (§6.4): finite type sets, a prior μ:Θ→R\mu:\Theta\to\mathbb Rμ:Θ→R with μ(θ)>0\mu(\theta)>0μ(θ)>0 and ∑θμ(θ)=1\sum_\theta\mu(\theta)=1∑θ​μ(θ)=1, and conditional beliefs μ(θ−i∣θi)=μ(θ)/μ(θi)\mu(\theta_{-i}\mid\theta_i) = \mu(\theta)/\mu(\theta_i)μ(θ−i​∣θi​)=μ(θ)/μ(θi​); the alternative set AAA is arbitrary. Interdependent values (§9.3): finite AAA, signals in [0,1]A[0,1]^A[0,1]A with positive densities, independent across agents, linear utilities with nonzero weights αaij\alpha^j_{ai}αaij​.

Committed conventions and explicit formulas:

  • The Crémer–McLean condition uses nonnegative weights without a sum-to-one constraint, as Definition 6.7 prints it.
  • "Equivalent" in Propositions 6.4 and 6.6 means the same decision rule and the same interim expected payments at truthful reports, as Proposition 6.4 states; in Proposition 6.3 it is the report-by-report notion, which under independence is equality of the interim payment rules TiT_iTi​.
  • Proposition 6.2 adds continuity of ui(a,⋅)u_i(a,\cdot)ui​(a,⋅) on Θi\Theta_iΘi​, and Proposition 6.3 adds at least two agents; without them the printed statements are false.
  • Measurability, which the book omits throughout, is made explicit: decision rules are measurable, and the payment sections and utilities are integrable against the relevant interim distributions.
  • In Proposition 9.1 the partial derivatives are derivatives within the closed cube [0,1]K[0,1]^K[0,1]K, and the weight condition is the displayed ratio inequality.

A trivializing formalization of the goal, one that proves it only for mechanisms that are already incentive compatible, or with a payment rule that is not a function of the reported type profile, or with "equivalent" weakened to "some BIC mechanism exists", is ruled out: the statement quantifies over every direct mechanism and fixes both the decision rule and every interim payment.

Reusable infrastructure: finite conditional expectations under a full-support prior, the Crémer–McLean and identifiability conditions, and the interim model with product priors. Proofs of any milestone and of the goal, including via the Farkas reference, are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Börgers, An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design, Oxford University Press, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199734023.001.0001
  • J. Crémer and R. P. McLean, "Full extraction of the surplus in Bayesian and dominant strategy auctions", Econometrica 56(6), 1988. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913096
  • G. Kosenok and S. Severinov, "Individually rational, budget-balanced mechanisms and allocation of surplus", Journal of Economic Theory 140(1), 2008.
  • P. Jehiel and B. Moldovanu, "Efficient design with interdependent valuations", Econometrica 69(5), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00237
  • V. Krishna and E. Maenner, "Convex potentials with an application to mechanism design", Econometrica 69(4), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00225
  • J.-C. Rochet, "A necessary and sufficient condition for rationalizability in a quasi-linear context", Journal of Mathematical Economics 16(2), 1987. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(87)90007-3
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Bellman's Dynamic Programming VIII: Multi-Stage Games, Games of Survival and the Extended Min-Max TheoremTextbook

Why multi-stage games

Chapter X of Richard Bellman's Dynamic Programming (Princeton University Press, 1957; Princeton Landmarks edition 2010, DOI 10.2307/j.ctv1nxcw0f) carries the functional-equation method of the earlier chapters from one-player decision processes to two-player zero-sum games that are played over many stages. At each stage the two players make simultaneous choices, and those choices change the state in which the next stage is played. Games of survival are the standard example. They generalize the gambler's ruin: two players with finite resources play until one of them is ruined. The same framework is the discrete-time form of what Shapley (1953) called stochastic games. It underlies pursuit games, attrition models and the later theory of dynamic games in operations research and economics.

The chapter builds on von Neumann's min-max theorem (1928), which Bellman assumes without proof (§ 3, Eq. (3.4)). It proves three kinds of result: existence and uniqueness for the general multi-stage game equation (§§ 11–16), existence and uniqueness for games of survival with integer payoffs (§ 19), and an extended min-max theorem for ratios of bilinear forms (§ 23). Bellman proposes the ratio as a criterion for non-zero-sum games.

Setting

A matrix game is given by a real M×NM\times NM×N matrix A=(aij)A=(a_{ij})A=(aij​). Player AAA chooses row iii with probability pip_ipi​ and player BBB chooses column jjj with probability qjq_jqj​; ppp and qqq are distribution vectors (points of the standard simplex). The expected return to AAA is

EA(p,q)=∑i,jaij pi qj.E_A(p,q)=\sum_{i,j}a_{ij}\,p_i\,q_j .EA​(p,q)=i,j∑​aij​pi​qj​.

The game has value vvv when max⁡pmin⁡qEA=v=min⁡qmax⁡pEA\max_p\min_q E_A=v=\min_q\max_p E_Amaxp​minq​EA​=v=minq​maxp​EA​, all extrema attained. In the Lean development this is IsMaxMinMinMaxValue, and the bilinear form is bilin.

In the general multi-stage game (§ 12) the state is a pair of vectors P∈D⊆RnP\in D\subseteq\mathbb R^nP∈D⊆Rn, P′∈D′⊆Rn′P'\in D'\subseteq\mathbb R^{n'}P′∈D′⊆Rn′ with norms ∥P∥=∑i∣Pi∣\|P\|=\sum_i|P_i|∥P∥=∑i​∣Pi​∣. In state (P,P′)(P,P')(P,P′), AAA chooses uuu in a choice domain S(P,P′)S(P,P')S(P,P′) and BBB chooses vvv in S′(P,P′)S'(P,P')S′(P,P′). AAA receives R(u,v)R(u,v)R(u,v), and play continues from the state T(P,P′;u,v)T(P,P';u,v)T(P,P′;u,v), T′(P,P′;u,v)T'(P,P';u,v)T′(P,P′;u,v) with weight h(P,P′;u,v)h(P,P';u,v)h(P,P′;u,v). Mixed strategies GGG, G′G'G′ are probability measures on the choice domains. The multi-stage game equation is

f(P,P′)=max⁡Gmin⁡G′∬[R(u,v)+h(P,P′;u,v) f(T,T′)] dG(u) dG′(v)=min⁡G′max⁡G[ ⋯ ].f(P,P')=\max_G\min_{G'}\iint\big[R(u,v)+h(P,P';u,v)\,f(T,T')\big]\,dG(u)\,dG'(v)=\min_{G'}\max_G[\ \cdots\ ].f(P,P′)=Gmax​G′min​∬[R(u,v)+h(P,P′;u,v)f(T,T′)]dG(u)dG′(v)=G′min​Gmax​[ ⋯ ].

A game of survival with integer payoffs (§ 19) has one integer state xxx, the resources of AAA out of a fixed total ddd. AAA is ruined at x≤0x\le0x≤0 and wins at x≥dx\ge dx≥d. At each stage the players play the 2×22\times22×2 game with matrix (−1ac−b)\begin{pmatrix}-1&a\\c&-b\end{pmatrix}(−1c​a−b​), whose entries are the transfers to AAA.

Formalization targets

Goal: the extended min-max theorem (Chapter X, Theorem 7)

For real matrices A=(aij)A=(a_{ij})A=(aij​), B=(bij)B=(b_{ij})B=(bij​) with ∑i,jbijpiqj≥d>0\sum_{i,j}b_{ij}p_iq_j\ge d>0∑i,j​bij​pi​qj​≥d>0 for all distribution vectors p,qp,qp,q,

max⁡pmin⁡q∑i,jaijpiqj∑i,jbijpiqj=min⁡qmax⁡p∑i,jaijpiqj∑i,jbijpiqj.\max_p\min_q\frac{\sum_{i,j}a_{ij}p_iq_j}{\sum_{i,j}b_{ij}p_iq_j}=\min_q\max_p\frac{\sum_{i,j}a_{ij}p_iq_j}{\sum_{i,j}b_{ij}p_iq_j}.pmax​qmin​∑i,j​bij​pi​qj​∑i,j​aij​pi​qj​​=qmin​pmax​∑i,j​bij​pi​qj​∑i,j​aij​pi​qj​​.

It is the chapter's final result, and its statement involves only finite matrices.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (3.4), von Neumann's theorem VA=VBV_A=V_BVA​=VB​. It is already on the platform as AGT.zero_sum_minimax (existence of a saddle point) and enters as a reference.
  2. Lemma 1: the value of a one-stage game moves by at most the largest change of its kernel, ∣L(f)−L1(F)∣≤max⁡u,v [ ∣R−R1∣+∣h∣ ∣f(T,T′)−F(T,T′)∣ ]|L(f)-L_1(F)|\le\max_{u,v}\,[\,|R-R_1|+|h|\,|f(T,T')-F(T,T')|\,]∣L(f)−L1​(F)∣≤maxu,v​[∣R−R1​∣+∣h∣∣f(T,T′)−F(T,T′)∣].
  3. Theorem 1: under hypotheses (4a)–(4e), the multi-stage game equation has a unique solution among functions continuous on D×D′D\times D'D×D′ that vanish at the origin, and it is the uniform limit on bounded regions of the successive approximations.
  4. Theorem 3: the successive approximations converge from any admissible initial function.
  5. Theorem 4: stability, ∣f(P,P′)−F(P,P′)∣≤∑n≥0Δ(knc)|f(P,P')-F(P,P')|\le\sum_{n\ge0}\Delta(k^nc)∣f(P,P′)−F(P,P′)∣≤∑n≥0​Δ(knc).
  6. Theorem 5: the game of survival equation with boundary values 000 and 111 has a unique solution with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Significance

Theorem 7 gives a value for ratio games, the games in which a player maximizes a return per unit of a resource consumed. Bellman uses it to give a rationale for the play of non-zero-sum games (§ 24) and to derive the approximate equation (22.4) for non-zero-sum games of survival. Chapter XI, Theorem 5 generalizes it to Markovian decision processes. Theorem 1 is the existence and uniqueness result that justifies replacing an infinite game by its functional equation, and Theorems 3 and 4 make that equation usable for computation and perturbation. Theorem 5 is an early uniqueness theorem for a discrete stochastic game with absorbing boundaries.

None of these statements is formalized on the platform. Von Neumann's theorem is (AGT.zero_sum_minimax, and Sion's theorem as FamousTheorems.sion_minimax_theorem). Theorem 7 is a classical result: with a positive denominator the ratio is quasiconcave in ppp and quasiconvex in qqq. This mission asks for a machine-checked proof of the book's statement, by Bellman's route or by any other. Theorems 1, 3 and 4 need a formal theory of games whose mixed strategies are probability measures on moving compact choice domains. No such theory is on the platform yet.

Difficulty

The ratio in Theorem 7 is not bilinear, and in general it is neither concave in ppp nor convex in qqq, so neither von Neumann's theorem nor a concave-convex min-max theorem applies to it directly. For Theorem 1, the contraction argument needs each one-stage game to have a value and the value to depend continuously on the state. That requires a min-max theorem for continuous games on compact sets, together with continuity of the value when the choice domains move. In Theorem 5, existence follows from monotone iteration. The uniqueness step is the hard part: the operator is not a contraction in the sup norm, and a second solution must be ruled out even at states where the optimal mixed strategies are degenerate.

Formalization scope

  • Distribution vectors are points of stdSimplex ℝ ι for nonempty finite types. "Max-min equals min-max" always asserts attainment (IsGreatest/IsLeast) and never uses sSup/sInf, which return 000 on empty or unbounded sets. Theorem 7 must not assume a saddle point; its only hypothesis is the bound on the denominator.
  • States are Fin n → ℝ with the ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm of Eq. (12.1). Choice domains are nonempty compact sets (NonemptyCompacts), and mixed strategies are probability measures of full mass on them. "Vary continuously" in (4b), which the book does not define, is read as continuity in Mathlib's topology on nonempty compact sets (for a metric space, the topology of the Hausdorff distance).
  • The maxima w(c)w(c)w(c) of (4d) and Δ(c)\Delta(c)Δ(c) of Theorem 4 are expressed through majorants, which is equivalent to the book's condition. k≥0k\ge0k≥0 is stated explicitly. In Lemma 1 the kernels are assumed measurable and bounded on S×S′S\times S'S×S′ so that the integrals exist, and each game having a value is a hypothesis, as in Bellman's footnote 4.
  • Theorem 3's "converges" is stated as uniform convergence on bounded regions, the mode of Theorem 1, whose proof Theorem 3 repeats. Theorem 4's unspecified ccc is any c≥∥P∥+∥P′∥c\ge\|P\|+\|P'\|c≥∥P∥+∥P′∥. The book's p. 301 prints the first min-max of Theorem 4 with the subscripts GGG, G′G'G′ interchanged; the equation used is that of Theorem 1.
  • Theorem 5 adds the implicit d≥1d\ge1d≥1: for d≤0d\le0d≤0 the boundary conditions contradict each other. The state is an integer and f:Z→Rf:\mathbb Z\to\mathbb Rf:Z→R.
  • Taking the choice domains constant would trivialize Theorem 1: condition (4d) would then force R≡0R\equiv0R≡0 on them. The choice domains therefore depend on the state.
  • Not included: Theorem 2 (optimal strategies of the infinite game, which needs a model of the game's plays), Theorem 6 (non-zero-sum survival; the boundary conditions (21.3) do not cover all states, see the moderation notes).

Contributions of reusable infrastructure are welcome: the min-max theorem for continuous games on compact sets (Eq. (4.2)), continuity of the value in the choice domains, and value iteration for contracting game operators.

Selected references

  • R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957; Princeton Landmarks in Mathematics, 2010. DOI 10.2307/j.ctv1nxcw0f
  • J. von Neumann, Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele, Mathematische Annalen 100, 1928. DOI 10.1007/BF01448847
  • L. S. Shapley, Stochastic games, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 39, 1953. DOI 10.1073/pnas.39.10.1095
  • M. Sion, On general minimax theorems, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 8, 1958. DOI 10.2140/pjm.1958.8.171
  • I. L. Glicksberg, A further generalization of the Kakutani fixed point theorem, with application to Nash equilibrium points, Proceedings of the AMS 3, 1952. DOI 10.1090/S0002-9939-1952-0046638-5
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Theory of Games and Economic Behavior II: Games with Perfect Information Are Strictly DeterminedTextbook

Motivation

Chess, checkers, Go and Backgammon share a feature that card games such as Poker lack: whenever a player moves, the player knows everything that has happened so far. von Neumann and Morgenstern call this perfect information and devote §15 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944; 3rd ed. 1953) to it. Their result is that such a game, viewed as a zero-sum two-person game, is strictly determined: it has a value that each player can secure with a pure strategy, without any randomization. For Chess this means that exactly one of three statements is true: White can force a win, Black can force a win, or both can force at least a draw ((15:D:a)–(15:D:c)).

Timeline. Zermelo (1913, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels) showed for Chess that either one side can force a win or both can avoid losing; his argument is not phrased in terms of strategies and a value, and was later corrected and completed by König (1927) and Kalmár (1928/29). von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944, §15) proved strict determinateness for every finite zero-sum two-person game with perfect information, including chance moves (15.7.1), and gave the explicit formula (15:12) for the value. Kuhn (1953, Extensive games and the problem of information, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28) recast games in tree form and extended the pure-strategy existence result to general-sum games with perfect information (subgame-perfect equilibria by backward induction).

Setting

A game tree Γ\GammaΓ is a finite rooted tree. Each leaf is a finished play π\piπ and carries the payoff F1(π)∈R\mathfrak F_1(\pi) \in \mathbb RF1​(π)∈R to player 1; player 2 receives −F1(π)-\mathfrak F_1(\pi)−F1​(π). Each internal node is a move M\mathfrak MM of one of three kinds kkk, with alternatives σ=1,…,α\sigma = 1, \dots, \alphaσ=1,…,α leading to subtrees Γσ\Gamma_\sigmaΓσ​:

  • k=0k = 0k=0, a chance move, where alternative σ\sigmaσ occurs with probability p(σ)≧0p(\sigma) \geqq 0p(σ)≧0, ∑σp(σ)=1\sum_\sigma p(\sigma) = 1∑σ​p(σ)=1;
  • k=1k = 1k=1, a personal move of player 1, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1;
  • k=2k = 2k=2, a personal move of player 2, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1.

A pure strategy τ1\tau_1τ1​ of player 1 is a complete plan choosing an alternative at every node of kind 1; τ2\tau_2τ2​ does the same at every node of kind 2. The normalized form H(τ1,τ2)\mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2)H(τ1​,τ2​) is the expected payoff to player 1, the expectation being over the chance moves. With the maxima and minima taken over the finitely many pure strategies,

v1=Max⁡τ1Min⁡τ2H(τ1,τ2),v2=Min⁡τ2Max⁡τ1H(τ1,τ2).v_1 = \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2), \qquad v_2 = \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2).v1​=Maxτ1​​Minτ2​​H(τ1​,τ2​),v2​=Minτ2​​Maxτ1​​H(τ1​,τ2​).

Always v1≦v2v_1 \leqq v_2v1​≦v2​; the game is strictly determined when v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ (14.4.2).

For a function f(σ1)f(\sigma_1)f(σ1​) of the alternatives of the first move M1\mathfrak M_1M1​, of kind k1k_1k1​, the operation Mσ1k1M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1}Mσ1​k1​​ of (15:8) is ∑σ1p1(σ1)f(σ1)\sum_{\sigma_1} p_1(\sigma_1) f(\sigma_1)∑σ1​​p1​(σ1​)f(σ1​), Max⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Maxσ1​​f(σ1​) or Min⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Min}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Minσ1​​f(σ1​) for k1=0,1,2k_1 = 0, 1, 2k1​=0,1,2. Applying these operations from the leaves back to the root gives the backward-induction value v(Γ)v(\Gamma)v(Γ).

Formalization targets

Goal: 15.6.1 with (15:12)

For every finite game tree Γ\GammaΓ,

v1=v2=v=Mσ1k1Mσ2k2(σ1)⋯Mσνkν(σ1,…,σν−1)F1(π(σ1,…,σν)).v_1 = v_2 = v = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} M^{k_2(\sigma_1)}_{\sigma_2} \cdots M^{k_\nu(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_{\nu-1})}_{\sigma_\nu} \mathfrak F_1(\pi(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_\nu)).v1​=v2​=v=Mσ1​k1​​Mσ2​k2​(σ1​)​⋯Mσν​kν​(σ1​,…,σν−1​)​F1​(π(σ1​,…,σν​)).

Both the equality v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ and the value formula are part of the goal.

Milestones

  • (13:E): for finite nonempty domains and fff ranging over all functions of xxx, Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Min⁡fMax⁡xψ(x,f(x))\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Min}_f \operatorname{Max}_x \psi(x, f(x))Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Minf​Maxx​ψ(x,f(x)); and (13:G): Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Max⁡xMin⁡uψ(x,u)\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_u \psi(x, u)Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Maxx​Minu​ψ(x,u).
  • (15:2)–(15:7): vk=Mσ1k1vσ1/kv_k = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/k}vk​=Mσ1​k1​​vσ1​/k​ for k=1,2k = 1, 2k=1,2, one milestone for each kind of first move, without assuming that any game is strictly determined.
  • (15:C:a): a game of length 000 is strictly determined with value www; (15:C:b): if every Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​ is strictly determined, so is Γ\GammaΓ.
  • (15:13), (15:D:a)–(15:D:c): for games without chance moves whose plays end in 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1, the value is one of these three numbers, and it decides which player can force a win or whether both can force a tie.

Significance

The theorem is the first existence result for the value of a class of games in pure strategies. It shows that the whole difficulty of the general zero-sum two-person game, the need for mixed strategies (§17), comes from imperfect information. It gives a construction as well as an existence proof: the value and optimal strategies are computed by backward induction, the procedure behind retrograde analysis of endgames, minimax search in game-playing programs, and the dynamic programming recursions of sequential decision problems with an adversary. The Chess trichotomy (15:D) is its best-known consequence.

Formalizing it adds a checked account of the passage from the extensive to the normalized form for a whole class of games, which the book carries out informally (15.4.2, 15.5.1: "the reader may verify it from the formalistic point of view"). The result is classical and fully proved in the book; the work is to formalize that proof on a tree model. Mathlib has saddle points (Order/SaddlePoint) and the minimax theorem for continuous functions (Topology/Sion), but no game trees, strategies of extensive games, or backward induction. No machine-checked version of this theorem with chance moves and the normalized form over complete plans is known to the mission.

Difficulty

The recursions (15:2)–(15:7) are not formal consequences of the definitions: v1v_1v1​ and v2v_2v2​ are extrema over whole plans of Γ\GammaΓ, while the right-hand sides are extrema over plans of the separate games Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​. At a personal move of player 1, v2=Max⁡σ1vσ1/2v_2 = \operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/2}v2​=Maxσ1​​vσ1​/2​ requires interchanging a Min over player 2's plans, which are functions of player 1's first choice, with a Max over that choice: this is exactly (13:E), a max-min equality that fails for general functions of two variables and holds here because the minimizing variable is a function of the maximizing one. A proof that treats the Max over τ1\tau_1τ1​ and the Min over τ2\tau_2τ2​ as interchangeable without this step is circular.

A second difficulty is the strategy spaces themselves. A complete plan chooses at nodes the plan itself excludes, so the pure strategies of Γ\GammaΓ are not simply pairs of a first choice and one strategy of the chosen subgame; the identification the book uses in 15.5.1 has to be justified by showing that the extra coordinates do not change H\mathcal HH.

Formalization scope

A game is an inductive type GameTree with constructors leaf w, chance α p next hp hsum, move1 α hα next, move2 α hα next; alternatives are Fin α (numbered from 000). The conditions p≧0p \geqq 0p≧0, ∑p=1\sum p = 1∑p=1 and α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at personal moves are constructor fields, so every tree is a legitimate game. Pure strategies are dependent types Strategy1 t, Strategy2 t defined by recursion on the tree (complete plans), with Fintype and Nonempty instances; H\mathcal HH is payoff t τ₁ τ₂, the expected leaf payoff; v1, v2 are Finset.sup'/Finset.inf' over all strategies, so every Max and Min is attained.

Standing hypotheses and conventions taken from the book:

  • finite strategy sets and attained extrema (13.2.1, 14.1.1): finite trees with finitely many alternatives at every move;
  • perfect information, i.e. preliminarity equals anteriority (6.4.1, (15:B)): built into the tree model, which is the sequence of games (15:1);
  • zero-sum two-person (15.3.1): one payoff F1\mathfrak F_1F1​, player 2 receives −F1-\mathfrak F_1−F1​ and minimizes H\mathcal HH;
  • chance probabilities nonnegative and summing to one (15.4.2, 10.1.1); α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at every move;
  • (15:D) additionally assumes no chance moves and outcomes 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1 (15.7.1).

The book's formal model is the set-theoretic one of §§9–10, with partitions of the set of plays; the tree restates it for the perfect-information case and does not formalize §§9–10. The book fixes one length ν\nuν for all plays; trees with plays of different lengths contain the book's games as a special case, so the goal is at least as strong as the book's theorem.

Strategies are plans, never responses: a strategy of player 1 is fixed before play and cannot depend on player 2's strategy, which would make v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ trivial. Chance moves are part of the goal; a version without them proves only the Chess case and is weaker than the book.

Reusable beyond this mission: the tree model, its strategy types and the normalized form, which later chapters on extensive games can import. Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, and a lemma identifying the strategies of Γ\GammaΓ with the book's recursive description (15.4.2, 15.5.1).

Selected references

  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 60th-anniversary edition, Princeton University Press, 2007 (reprint of the 3rd ed., 1953), §§6, 11, 13–15. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
  • E. Zermelo, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels, Proc. Fifth International Congress of Mathematicians, vol. II, 1913, pp. 501–504.
  • U. Schwalbe, P. Walker, Zermelo and the early history of game theory, Games and Economic Behavior 34 (2001), 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.2000.0794
  • H. W. Kuhn, Extensive games and the problem of information, in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28, Princeton, 1953, 193–216. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-012
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Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue: The Competitive Ratio of the Primal-Dual Allocation AlgorithmResearch Paper

Motivation

Search engines sell advertisement slots next to their results through ad-auctions. Advertisers bid on keywords, and each advertiser also sets a daily budget: the most it is willing to pay in a day. Queries arrive one at a time and each must be assigned to an advertiser at once, with no knowledge of the queries still to come. The seller's revenue from an advertiser is capped by its budget, so an allocation rule that ignores budgets can exhaust a high bidder early and forgo revenue that a more even allocation would have collected. The question is how much of the offline optimum an online rule can guarantee against every arrival sequence.

Mehta, Saberi, Vazirani and Vazirani (FOCS 2005 / J. ACM 2007) gave a deterministic algorithm whose competitive ratio tends to 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e when bids are small compared with budgets, and showed that no deterministic algorithm does better. Their algorithm builds on online bipartite matching (Karp, Vazirani and Vazirani, STOC 1990) and online bbb-matching (Kalyanasundaram and Pruhs, 2000). Buchbinder, Jain and Naor (ESA 2007) rederived the 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e bound with an online primal-dual algorithm, which gives the ratio in closed form for every value of the bid-to-budget ratio and extends to multiple slots, stochastic information, bounded degree and budget flexibility. This mission formalizes the basic algorithm of that paper and its Theorem 1.

Setting

There is a finite nonempty set III of buyers. Buyer iii has a known budget B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0. Products j=1,…,mj = 1, \dots, mj=1,…,m arrive one by one; when product jjj arrives, every buyer's bid b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0 on it is revealed. The bid-to-budget ratio is

Rmax⁡=max⁡i∈I, jb(i,j)B(i).R_{\max} = \max_{i \in I,\, j} \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)} .Rmax​=i∈I,jmax​B(i)b(i,j)​.

A fractional allocation y(i,j)≥0y(i,j) \ge 0y(i,j)≥0 assigns fractions of products to buyers; the revenue from buyer iii is the minimum of ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j) and B(i)B(i)B(i).

The offline fractional problem is the packing LP, which the paper calls the dual:

max⁡∑j∑ib(i,j) y(i,j)s.t.∑iy(i,j)≤1  ∀j,∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.\max \sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_i y(i,j) \le 1 \ \ \forall j,\qquad \sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i)\ \ \forall i,\qquad y \ge 0 .maxj∑​i∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)s.t.i∑​y(i,j)≤1  ∀j,j∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.

Its LP dual, the paper's primal, is the covering LP:

min⁡∑iB(i) x(i)+∑jz(j)s.t.b(i,j) x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.\min \sum_i B(i)\,x(i) + \sum_j z(j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad b(i,j)\,x(i) + z(j) \ge b(i,j)\ \ \forall i,j,\qquad x, z \ge 0 .mini∑​B(i)x(i)+j∑​z(j)s.t.b(i,j)x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.

The Allocation Algorithm has a parameter c>1c > 1c>1 and starts from x≡0x \equiv 0x≡0. When product jjj arrives it takes a buyer iii maximizing b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1 - x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)). If x(i)≥1x(i) \ge 1x(i)≥1, the product is not sold. Otherwise it charges iii the minimum of b(i,j)b(i,j)b(i,j) and iii's remaining budget, sets y(i,j)←1y(i,j) \leftarrow 1y(i,j)←1 and z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i))z(j) \leftarrow b(i,j)(1 - x(i))z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i)), and updates

x(i)←x(i)(1+b(i,j)B(i))+b(i,j)(c−1) B(i).x(i) \leftarrow x(i)\Big(1 + \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)}\Big) + \frac{b(i,j)}{(c-1)\,B(i)} .x(i)←x(i)(1+B(i)b(i,j)​)+(c−1)B(i)b(i,j)​.

Its revenue is the total amount charged.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every instance and every bound R>0R > 0R>0 with b(i,j)≤R B(i)b(i,j) \le R\,B(i)b(i,j)≤RB(i) for all i,ji, ji,j, the Allocation Algorithm run with c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R, under any tie-breaking of the maximum, satisfies for every feasible y′y'y′ of the packing LP

Revenue  ≥  (1−1c)(1−R)∑j∑ib(i,j) y′(i,j).\mathrm{Revenue} \;\ge\; \Big(1 - \frac1c\Big)(1 - R)\sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y'(i,j).Revenue≥(1−c1​)(1−R)j∑​i∑​b(i,j)y′(i,j).

With R=Rmax⁡R = R_{\max}R=Rmax​ this is the paper's statement that the algorithm is (1−1/c)(1−Rmax⁡)(1 - 1/c)(1 - R_{\max})(1−1/c)(1−Rmax​)-competitive; the fractional optimum bounds every integral offline allocation.

Milestones

The proof of Theorem 1 rests on three claims and three auxiliary facts, each a milestone:

  1. the inequality ln⁡(1+x)/x≥ln⁡(1+y)/y\ln(1+x)/x \ge \ln(1+y)/yln(1+x)/x≥ln(1+y)/y for 0<x≤y≤10 < x \le y \le 10<x≤y≤1;
  2. Claim (1): the final (x,z)(x, z)(x,z) is feasible for the covering LP;
  3. Claim (2): the covering cost of the run equals (1+1/(c−1))(1 + 1/(c-1))(1+1/(c−1)) times the packing value of the run's own yyy;
  4. Inequality (1): x(i)≥1c−1(c∑jb(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1)x(i) \ge \frac{1}{c-1}\big(c^{\sum_j b(i,j) y(i,j)/B(i)} - 1\big)x(i)≥c−11​(c∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1) at every stage of the run;
  5. Claim (3): ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)+max⁡jb(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i) + \max_j b(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)+maxj​b(i,j), and the amount charged to iii is at least (1−R)∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)(1 - R)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)(1−R)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j);
  6. weak duality for the LP pair above;

and, separately, the second sentence of Theorem 1,

lim⁡R→0+(1−1(1+R)1/R)(1−R)=1−1e.\lim_{R\to 0^+}\Big(1 - \frac{1}{(1+R)^{1/R}}\Big)(1-R) = 1 - \frac1e .R→0+lim​(1−(1+R)1/R1​)(1−R)=1−e1​.

Significance

Theorem 1 gives an explicit ratio for every value of Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​, not only in the limit. It tends to the optimal deterministic ratio 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e as bids become small, and it quantifies how the guarantee degrades as single bids become a larger share of a budget. The primal-dual analysis is the template for the paper's later sections and for a line of work on online packing and covering problems, surveyed in Buchbinder and Naor's monograph The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach (Foundations and Trends in TCS, 2009).

The result is proved in the paper, and the proof is short. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof about an algorithm that is defined, not described: the run is computed by recursion from the instance, and the guarantee is proved for that run and every tie-breaking. A related private mission on the platform, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach VI: Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, states the monograph's Theorem 10.1, which is this theorem, in a form that takes the analysis's intermediate inequalities as hypotheses over arbitrary lists of won bids; the present mission states it for the algorithm itself. No machine-checked proof of Theorem 1 is known to this mission.

Difficulty

Each step of the proof is elementary; the difficulty is the bookkeeping of an online process. Claims (1) and (2) are statements about a single iteration that must be lifted to the whole run: Claim (1) uses that xxx only increases, and Claim (2) that each product is processed once. Inequality (1) is an induction over the iterations that allocate to one buyer, interleaved with iterations that allocate to others and is the only place where the value of ccc matters. Claim (3) needs a further invariant: the amount charged equals the minimum of the allocated bids and the budget.

A tempting shortcut is to take Inequality (1) and the "at most one undercharge" fact as hypotheses about some list of bids. That does not describe the algorithm and is not the theorem; here the only hypotheses are on the instance and on the tie-breaking rule.

Formalization scope

Buyers are a type I with [Fintype I] and [Nonempty I]; products are Fin m, whose order is the arrival order. Bids and budgets are real, with B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0 and b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0. The state of the algorithm records xxx, the amounts charged, yyy and zzz; one iteration is step, the run after kkk products is runPrefix, and revenue sums the charges of the final state. The tie-breaking rule is a function sel of the current xxx and the product, required to return a maximizer of b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1-x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)); the theorem holds for every such rule. The constant c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R is a real power and requires R>0R > 0R>0. The theorem is stated for any bound RRR on the ratios, of which the exact maximum is one instance. Claims (1) and (2) are stated for every c>1c > 1c>1, which covers the paper's choice. The paper's inequality for ln⁡(1+x)/x\ln(1+x)/xln(1+x)/x allows x=0x = 0x=0, read as a limit; the Lean statement requires x>0x > 0x>0.

A statement over an unconstrained allocation, or one conditioned on the proof's own intermediate inequalities, would be trivially true or false; the targets here concern only the run the definitions compute.

The development needs finite sums, real powers and logarithms from Mathlib and an induction principle for the run. The LP pair and weak duality are reusable for the paper's extensions, and the run invariants for any primal-dual online algorithm with multiplicative updates. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are sharper variants, such as the exact-Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​ form or the bound against integral allocations.

Selected references

  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, J. Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, Algorithms – ESA 2007, LNCS 4698, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75520-3_24
  • A. Mehta, A. Saberi, U. Vazirani, V. Vazirani, AdWords and Generalized Online Matching, Journal of the ACM 54(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1145/1284320.1284321
  • R. M. Karp, U. V. Vazirani, V. V. Vazirani, An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching, STOC 1990. https://doi.org/10.1145/100216.100262
  • B. Kalyanasundaram, K. R. Pruhs, An Optimal Deterministic Algorithm for Online b-Matching, Theoretical Computer Science 233(1–2), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3975(99)00140-1
  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach, Foundations and Trends in Theoretical Computer Science 3(2–3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1561/0400000024
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with a Common Retailer 2: Under Production Economy the Retailer Earns Weakly More from Sequential Information Contracting and the Manufacturers from ConcurrentResearch Paper

Motivation

Large retailers hold point-of-sale and loyalty-card data that their suppliers cannot observe, and many of them sell access to it through data-sharing programs; others share the same data for free, or with only some suppliers (Shang, Ha & Tong 2016, §1). When two competing manufacturers sell through one common retailer, sharing a demand signal with a manufacturer changes how he sets his wholesale price, which in turn changes the retailer's margins and the rival's demand. Whether the retailer wants to share, with how many manufacturers, and at what price, is therefore a question about a multistage game with incomplete information.

Shang, Ha and Tong answer it for linear demand, a linear-expectation signal and quadratic production costs, under two contracting protocols. This mission covers the production economy case (marginal cost decreasing in volume, §6 of the paper), in which the retailer may have an incentive to share information even without payment. A companion mission covers production diseconomy (§5).

Setting

Two manufacturers i∈{0,1}i \in \{0,1\}i∈{0,1} sell substitutable products through a common retailer. Demand for product iii is

qi=a+θ−(1+ϕ)pi+ϕpj,q_i = a + \theta - (1+\phi)p_i + \phi p_j ,qi​=a+θ−(1+ϕ)pi​+ϕpj​,

where pip_ipi​ is the retail price, ϕ>0\phi > 0ϕ>0 measures competition intensity and θ\thetaθ is a demand shock with mean 000 and variance σ2>0\sigma^2 > 0σ2>0. The retailer observes a demand signal YYY with E[Y∣θ]=θE[Y \mid \theta] = \thetaE[Y∣θ]=θ and a linear-expectation structure E[θ∣Y]=βYE[\theta \mid Y] = \beta YE[θ∣Y]=βY, where β=β(t,σ)\beta = \beta(t,\sigma)β=β(t,σ) is the signal weight. Producing qqq units costs bq−ceq2bq - c_e q^2bq−ce​q2 with ce>0c_e > 0ce​>0; the paper writes c=−cec = -c_ec=−ce​ and assumes ce<2/(1+ϕ)c_e < 2/(1+\phi)ce​<2/(1+ϕ) (the Assumption, p. 251). Retailing is costless.

The game has three stages.

  1. Information contracting. Under concurrent contracting the retailer offers both manufacturers the same payment T≥0T \ge 0T≥0 for the signal; they decide simultaneously and play a Pareto-optimal pure equilibrium. Under sequential contracting she offers a payment TfT_fTf​ to a first manufacturer kkk and, after his decision, a payment TsT_sTs​ to the other; the outcome is a subgame-perfect equilibrium (SPE). The retailer commits not to share for free after a rejection (§6.2).
  2. Pricing. Given the information statuses Xi∈{I,U}X_i \in \{I, U\}Xi​∈{I,U}, each manufacturer sets a wholesale price wiw_iwi​ (a function of YYY if informed, a constant otherwise), then the retailer sets retail prices; the solution concept is Bayesian Nash equilibrium.
  3. Demand realizes and profits are collected.

The ex ante profits of the pricing equilibrium are denoted πM(0)\pi_M(0)πM​(0), πMU(1)\pi_M^U(1)πMU​(1), πMI(1)\pi_M^I(1)πMI​(1), πM(2)\pi_M(2)πM​(2) for a manufacturer and πR(n)\pi_R(n)πR​(n) for the retailer, nnn the number of informed manufacturers. neNn_e^NneN​, neCn_e^CneC​, neSn_e^SneS​ denote the equilibrium number of informed manufacturers without contracting, under concurrent and under sequential contracting.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8(d)

For every ϕ>0\phi > 0ϕ>0 and 0<ce<2/(1+ϕ)0 < c_e < 2/(1+\phi)0<ce​<2/(1+ϕ), pricing equilibria exist, concurrent outcomes and sequential SPEs exist, and for every concurrent outcome and every SPE (either first mover)

ΠRC≤ΠRS,ΠMS≤ΠMC,\Pi_R^C \le \Pi_R^S, \qquad \Pi_M^S \le \Pi_M^C ,ΠRC​≤ΠRS​,ΠMS​≤ΠMC​,

where ΠR\Pi_RΠR​ is the retailer's profit after side payments and ΠM\Pi_MΠM​ the manufacturers' total profit net of them. The second inequality is asserted for all cec_ece​ except at most two values depending only on ϕ\phiϕ. The comparisons about every pricing equilibrium family exclude the single value ce∗=(2+3ϕ)/[(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)]c_e^* = (2+3\phi)/[(1+2\phi)(1+\phi)]ce∗​=(2+3ϕ)/[(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)] (see Formalization scope). The paper says "higher"; the inequalities are weak because both sides coincide on intervals of positive length.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: the pricing equilibrium exists and, for ce≠ce∗c_e \ne c_e^*ce​=ce∗​, is unique and linear in YYY with explicit coefficients.
  2. §4.2: the ex ante profits πM(⋅)\pi_M(\cdot)πM​(⋅) and πR(⋅)\pi_R(\cdot)πR​(⋅) in closed form.
  3. Lemma 5(a)–(c) and Lemma 5(d): sign comparisons of these profits in cec_ece​, with thresholds 1/(1+ϕ)1/(1+\phi)1/(1+ϕ), (4+5ϕ)/[(2+3ϕ)(1+ϕ)](4+5\phi)/[(2+3\phi)(1+\phi)](4+5ϕ)/[(2+3ϕ)(1+ϕ)], ceac_e^acea​ and ceNc_e^NceN​.
  4. Proposition 7: thresholds ceCc_e^CceC​, ceSc_e^SceS​ such that
neZ=0 for ce<11+ϕ,neZ=2 for 11+ϕ≤ce<ceZ,neZ=1 for ceZ≤ce<21+ϕ.n_e^Z = 0 \text{ for } c_e < \tfrac{1}{1+\phi}, \quad n_e^Z = 2 \text{ for } \tfrac{1}{1+\phi} \le c_e < c_e^Z, \quad n_e^Z = 1 \text{ for } c_e^Z \le c_e < \tfrac{2}{1+\phi}.neZ​=0 for ce​<1+ϕ1​,neZ​=2 for 1+ϕ1​≤ce​<ceZ​,neZ​=1 for ceZ​≤ce​<1+ϕ2​.
  1. Proposition 6(b): the same structure for neNn_e^NneN​ with a threshold ceNc_e^NceN​.
  2. Proposition 8(a): ceN<ceS≤ceCc_e^N < c_e^S \le c_e^CceN​<ceS​≤ceC​.

Significance

Proposition 8(d) says that a common retailer who sells information prefers to sell it sequentially, and that the manufacturers bear the cost: sequential offers let her extract a larger payment from the first manufacturer, because his outside option depends on what she will do with the second. Together with Propositions 6 and 7 it explains why retailers under production economy share with only a subset of suppliers once economies of scale or competition are strong, and why a retailer may share data for free, a practice the diseconomy model cannot produce.

The results are proved in the paper, partly by "it is straightforward" arguments (the proofs of Lemmas 2–5 are omitted). No part of the paper is formalized. A formalization adds a machine-checked account of the equilibrium selection at the boundary payments, where the paper's case analysis is informal, and of the points at which the retailer is indifferent between outcomes.

Difficulty

The pricing stage is a Bayesian game with a continuum of strategies: an informed manufacturer's strategy is an arbitrary square-integrable function of the signal. Lemma 1's uniqueness needs the Assumption (without it the manufacturer's problem is not concave) and a conditional-expectation argument, not a finite-dimensional computation. The comparisons of Lemma 5 are sign conditions on rational functions of (ce,ϕ)(c_e, \phi)(ce​,ϕ) whose thresholds ceac_e^acea​, ceNc_e^NceN​ are implicit roots. The contracting stage is where the naive argument fails: at the boundary payments several equilibria give the retailer the same payoff but the manufacturers different payoffs, so "the" outcome is not well defined there, and a direct comparison of closed-form profits at the paper's selected equilibria does not cover every equilibrium.

Formalization scope

Lean represents manufacturers by Fin 2, statuses by an inductive type with informed and uninformed, and a pricing strategy by a function of the signal value. The committed conventions are these.

  1. Admissible strategies are measurable with square-integrable wi(Y)w_i(Y)wi​(Y), and constant for an uninformed manufacturer; ex ante optimality over them is the Bayesian equilibrium condition.
  2. The retailer's rule is a best response for every wholesale price pair and signal value, off path included.
  3. The production cost is the uncapped quadratic bq−ceq2bq - c_e q^2bq−ce​q2. The paper caps the quantity at qˉ=b/(2ce)\bar q = b/(2c_e)qˉ​=b/(2ce​) but assumes the cap is reached with negligible probability (footnote 11, p. 251) and computes every result of §4.2 and §6 without it. The condition b<ab < ab<a of that footnote is not imposed.
  4. Contracting uses pure strategies, nonnegative payments, and no free-sharing move after a rejection.
  5. A concurrent outcome is a payment and a pure equilibrium whose retailer payoff equals the supremum of her payoffs over Pareto-optimal equilibria. The supremum is not always attained: for large cec_ece​ the paper's optimal payment πMI(1)−πM(0)\pi_M^I(1) - \pi_M(0)πMI​(1)−πM​(0) makes (U,U)(U,U)(U,U) an equilibrium that Pareto-dominates the one-informed outcome it selects.
  6. Threshold statements take the two-clause form: the stated value of nnn is attained on each region with its printed endpoints, and is the only value on the region's interior. Thresholds depend only on ϕ\phiϕ and are quantified before all other parameters.
  7. The manufacturers' comparison in the goal excludes at most two values of cec_ece​. At the thresholds ceCc_e^CceC​, ceSc_e^SceS​ outcomes with different manufacturer totals coexist, and the universal comparison fails.
  8. A correction of the paper. At ce∗=(2+3ϕ)/[(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)]c_e^* = (2+3\phi)/[(1+2\phi)(1+\phi)]ce∗​=(2+3ϕ)/[(1+2ϕ)(1+ϕ)], which lies in (1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ))(1/(1+\phi), 2/(1+\phi))(1/(1+ϕ),2/(1+ϕ)), the slope of the best-response wholesale price (2) is exactly −1-1−1. The equations wi=w^i(wj)w_i = \hat w_i(w_j)wi​=w^i​(wj​) are then singular, and every status profile has a continuum of pricing equilibria (for n=0n = 0n=0, w1,2=wˉ±tw_{1,2} = \bar w \pm tw1,2​=wˉ±t for every ttt) whose ex ante profits differ. Lemma 1's uniqueness claim fails there, so do the §4.2 identities for every equilibrium family, and so does every statement built on them. Each statement that quantifies over all pricing equilibria therefore assumes ce≠ce∗c_e \ne c_e^*ce​=ce∗​; existence is still asserted at ce∗c_e^*ce∗​.

The ex ante profits in every statement are those of an equilibrium of the pricing game on the signal model, not the §4.2 closed forms; a formalization that defined them by the closed forms would reduce the goal to algebra and a 2×22 \times 22×2 game, and is ruled out. The model layer (signal model, pricing equilibrium, payoff table, both contracting games) is shared, name for name, with the production diseconomy mission. Contributions are welcome on each milestone, and on reusable pieces: linear-expectation signals, and pointwise optimization under conditional expectation.

Selected references

  • Shang W., Ha A. Y., Tong S., Information Sharing in a Supply Chain with a Common Retailer, Management Science 62(1):245–263, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2127
  • Ericson W. A., A note on the posterior mean of a population mean, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 31(2):332–334, 1969 (cited for the formula of β(t,σ)\beta(t,\sigma)β(t,σ), which this mission does not use).
  • Vives X., Oligopoly Pricing: Old Ideas and New Tools, MIT Press, 1999, §2.7.2.
  • Li L., Information sharing in a supply chain with horizontal competition, Management Science 48(9):1196–1212, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.9.1196.177
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