Data-Driven Robust Optimization I: An Uncertainty Set Whose Support Function Dominates Value at Risk Implies a Probabilistic Guarantee for Every Concave ConstraintResearch Paper
Motivation
Robust optimization replaces an uncertain constraint , whose parameter is random, by the requirement that the constraint hold for every in a chosen uncertainty set :
The resulting problem is deterministic and, for many shapes of , tractable (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui and Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The modelling question it leaves open is how to choose . A set that is too large makes every solution conservative; a set that is too small gives no protection. The practitioner's real requirement is usually probabilistic: a robust feasible should violate the uncertain constraint with probability at most .
Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Math. Program. 167, 2018) build uncertainty sets directly from data so that this requirement holds with high confidence. Their whole construction rests on one characterization, Theorem 1 of the paper, of when a set carries such a guarantee. This mission formalizes that characterization and the two results (Theorems 2 and 3) that turn it into a data-driven recipe.
Earlier work used the "if" direction of the characterization for bi-affine constraints when designing sets for specific distributional assumptions (Ben-Tal et al., 2009; Chen, Sim and Sun, Oper. Res. 55, 2007). The extension to every constraint concave in is due to Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus.
Setting
Let be a probability measure on , the law of , and fix a level . Throughout, is concave in for every value of the decision variable .
The support function of a set is
The Value at Risk of the linear loss at level is
A set implies a probabilistic guarantee at level for (property (P2) of the paper) if for every , every concave in for each , and every ,
A function is bi-affine if it has the form .
In the data-driven setting, is unknown and a sample is drawn i.i.d. from it. The paper's schema fixes , takes the confidence region of a hypothesis test at level , and builds a closed convex set whose support function bounds for every and every .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1
(a) If is nonempty, convex and compact and
then implies a probabilistic guarantee at level for .
(b) If is nonempty and for some at which is finite, then some bi-affine violates (2).
Milestones toward the goal
The proof in the electronic companion (EC.1.1) is a short chain, and its steps are the milestones: the attainment property of VaR, (already proved on the platform); a strict separating hyperplane between and the superlevel set ; the bound for ; its limit ; and, for part (b), the witness at .
Companions: Theorems 2 and 3
Theorem 2: with probability at least over the sample, implies a probabilistic guarantee at level for . Theorem 3: if the region does not depend on , then with probability at least the whole family implies the guarantee simultaneously (a), and every satisfying the level-optimized constraints (9) satisfies the joint chance constraint
(b).
Significance
Theorem 1(a) is what certifies every uncertainty set in the paper: the and sets for discrete distributions, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov and forward–backward sets for independent marginals, the marginal-sample box and the moment sets. Each construction reduces to proving one inequality between a support function and a Value at Risk, which is a statement about a single linear functional, and Theorem 1(a) lifts it to every concave constraint at once. Part (b) shows the condition cannot be dropped even for bi-affine constraints. Theorems 2 and 3 separate the statistical input (coverage of a confidence region) from the convex-analytic input (the support-function bound), and Theorem 3(b) is what allows the levels of a system of constraints to be optimized after seeing the data.
The results are proved in the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof; the only formalized ingredient is the attainment property of VaR, which is on the platform as a proved theorem. The formalization provides a checked bridge from support-function bounds to probabilistic guarantees that the other missions of this series (II–VI) use to state their own results in the criterion form .
Difficulty
The informal argument is short; the difficulty is in the infinite-dimensional bookkeeping that the page leaves implicit. The superlevel set need not be bounded, so the strict separation must use compactness of alone. Closedness of this set and measurability of depend on concave functions on being continuous. The passage is continuity of a measure along an increasing union. The attainment of the infimum in the definition of VaR requires right-continuity of distribution functions. A naive attempt to separate from the zero superlevel set directly fails, because the two sets may touch.
Formalization scope
is Fin d → ℝ; is the identity map; is the dot product u ⬝ᵥ v. The Value at Risk is the published MultistageStochastic.valueAtRisk at level , and the support function is the published RobustMDP.Shared.supportFunction. Both are real-valued sInf/sSup, which return on empty or unbounded sets, so every statement assumes , a probability measure, and an uncertainty set that is nonempty and compact (Theorem 1(a), Theorems 2–3) or nonempty with bounded above in the direction considered (Theorem 1(b)). In Theorem 1(b) and its witness this is the paper's own requirement that be finite, which its strict inequality with a real VaR forces and its proof uses by treating as a real number. Part (b) is printed with , a slip for ; the proof's separation step prints both inequalities in the same direction, a slip corrected in the strict separation milestone.
Property (P2) quantifies over the dimension of the decision variable, every function concave in for each , and every . Restricting it to affine or to would trivialize part (a) and falsify part (b), and is ruled out by the definition.
In Theorems 2 and 3 the sample is Fin N → (Fin d → ℝ) with the product law Measure.pi; the confidence region and the uncertainty set are arbitrary maps of the sample, and the coverage is a hypothesis, never the conclusion's event. Step 2 of the schema is stated with directly. The sets are assumed nonempty and compact (Step 3 says closed and convex; a finite support function that bounds VaR forces nonemptiness and boundedness). Theorem 3(b) reads the levels in , where the family is defined. Probabilities of events in the sample space are outer measures, so no measurability hypotheses are needed.
A complete development needs strict separation of a compact convex set from a closed convex set (Mathlib's geometric_hahn_banach_compact_closed), continuity of concave functions on finite-dimensional spaces, and the attainment property of VaR. Contributions are welcome on all milestones; the separation and limit steps are reusable for any chance-constraint argument based on support functions.
Selected references
- D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Data-Driven Robust Optimization, arXiv:1401.0212v2, 2014; Mathematical Programming 167:235–292, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1401.0212
- A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
- X. Chen, M. Sim, P. Sun, A Robust Optimization Perspective on Stochastic Programming, Operations Research 55(6):1058–1071, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0441