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Machine Learning

653 missions · 437 completed

The science of systems that learn from data and experience. Its scope runs from the statistical and mathematical foundations of learning, including generalization, expressivity, and computational limits, through the design of learning algorithms, deep learning, reinforcement learning, and probabilistic methods, to the empirical study of large models and the trustworthiness, interpretability, and societal impact of learned systems.

Missions

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🏆Completed
CombinatoricsLinear algebra·Captain: mikedeng1

Geometric Deep Learning II: Every Linear Permutation-Equivariant Map on ℝⁿ Is a Linear Combination of the Identity and the Averaging Map (1/n)𝟙𝟙ᵀTextbook

Motivation

Many learning problems take an unordered collection as input: the points of a point cloud, the particles of a physical system, the atoms of a molecule, the nodes of a graph. Storing such data in memory fixes an order of the elements, but the order carries no information, and a model whose output changes when the rows of its input are shuffled is answering a different question from the one posed. Bronstein, Bruna, Cohen and Veličković, Geometric Deep Learning: Grids, Groups, Graphs, Geodesics, and Gauges (arXiv:2104.13478v2, 2021), §4.1, make this the first instance of their blueprint: the domain is a set (or a graph) of nnn nodes, and the symmetry group is the symmetric group Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ of all reorderings.

Two architectures used in practice follow this pattern. Deep Sets (Zaheer et al., NeurIPS 2017) and PointNets (Qi et al., CVPR 2017) process sets; message-passing graph neural networks process graphs. The design question in both cases is which layers respect the symmetry. For linear layers the question has a complete answer, and the answer determines the layer used by Deep Sets. For graphs, Maron, Ben-Hamu, Shamir and Lipman (2018) counted the linear layers acting on adjacency matrices.

Setting

A set of nnn nodes V={1,…,n}\mathcal V=\{1,\dots,n\}V={1,…,n} carries node features xu∈Rd\mathbf x_u\in\mathbb R^dxu​∈Rd, stacked as the rows of a matrix X∈Rn×d\mathbf X\in\mathbb R^{n\times d}X∈Rn×d. A graph adds an adjacency matrix A∈Rn×n\mathbf A\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}A∈Rn×n, eq. (8), whose nonzero entries are the edges.

A permutation σ∈Σn\sigma\in\Sigma_nσ∈Σn​ acts through its permutation matrix P\mathbf PP by reordering rows: row uuu of PX\mathbf P\mathbf XPX is row σ−1(u)\sigma^{-1}(u)σ−1(u) of X\mathbf XX. On adjacency matrices it acts by A↦PAP⊤\mathbf A\mapsto\mathbf P\mathbf A\mathbf P^\topA↦PAP⊤, reordering rows and columns together.

A function fff is permutation invariant if f(PX)=f(X)f(\mathbf P\mathbf X)=f(\mathbf X)f(PX)=f(X) for every permutation matrix P\mathbf PP, and a matrix-valued function F\mathbf FF is permutation equivariant if F(PX)=PF(X)\mathbf F(\mathbf P\mathbf X)=\mathbf P\mathbf F(\mathbf X)F(PX)=PF(X). On graphs the book's definitions (9) and (10) are

f(PX,PAP⊤)=f(X,A)(9),F(PX,PAP⊤)=PF(X,A)(10),f(\mathbf P\mathbf X,\mathbf P\mathbf A\mathbf P^\top)=f(\mathbf X,\mathbf A)\quad(9),\qquad \mathbf F(\mathbf P\mathbf X,\mathbf P\mathbf A\mathbf P^\top)=\mathbf P\mathbf F(\mathbf X,\mathbf A)\quad(10),f(PX,PAP⊤)=f(X,A)(9),F(PX,PAP⊤)=PF(X,A)(10),

for any permutation matrix P\mathbf PP.

The section's constructions are the sum readout f(X)=ϕ(∑u∈Vψ(xu))f(\mathbf X)=\phi\big(\sum_{u\in\mathcal V}\psi(\mathbf x_u)\big)f(X)=ϕ(∑u∈V​ψ(xu​)) (6); the shared node-wise linear map FΘ(X)=XΘ\mathbf F_{\boldsymbol\Theta}(\mathbf X)=\mathbf X\boldsymbol\ThetaFΘ​(X)=XΘ (7); the neighbourhood Nu={v:(u,v)∈E or (v,u)∈E}\mathcal N_u=\{v:(u,v)\in\mathcal E\text{ or }(v,u)\in\mathcal E\}Nu​={v:(u,v)∈E or (v,u)∈E} (11) and the multiset of neighbourhood features XNu={ ⁣{xv:v∈Nu} ⁣}\mathbf X_{\mathcal N_u}=\{\!\{\mathbf x_v:v\in\mathcal N_u\}\!\}XNu​​={{xv​:v∈Nu​}} (12); and the local layer whose uuu-th row is ϕ(xu,XNu)\phi(\mathbf x_u,\mathbf X_{\mathcal N_u})ϕ(xu​,XNu​​) (13). For one feature channel the two linear generators are the identity F1x=x\mathbf F_1x=xF1​x=x and the average F2x=1n11⊤x\mathbf F_2x=\tfrac1n\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\top xF2​x=n1​11⊤x, every entry of which is the mean 1n∑uxu\tfrac1n\sum_u x_un1​∑u​xu​.

The book numbers no theorems, lemmas or definitions; every item of this mission is cited by section, equation number and printed page.

Formalization targets

Goal: linear equivariant maps on one channel

For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and a linear map F:Rn→Rn\mathbf F:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nF:Rn→Rn,

(∀ P, ∀x: FPx=PFx)  ⟺  ∃ α,β∈R  ∀x: Fx=α x+β 1n11⊤x.\big(\forall\,\mathbf P,\ \forall x:\ \mathbf F\mathbf P x=\mathbf P\mathbf F x\big)\iff \exists\,\alpha,\beta\in\mathbb R\ \ \forall x:\ \mathbf F x=\alpha\,x+\beta\,\tfrac1n\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\top x .(∀P, ∀x: FPx=PFx)⟺∃α,β∈R  ∀x: Fx=αx+βn1​11⊤x.

This is the book's sentence on p. 33: any linear equivariant "can be written as a linear combination of two generators, the identity … and the average". Both directions are stated; the content is the "only if" direction.

Milestones

  1. The sum readout (6) is permutation invariant (p. 32).
  2. The node-wise linear map (7) is permutation equivariant, with rows hu=Θ⊤xu\mathbf h_u=\boldsymbol\Theta^\top\mathbf x_uhu​=Θ⊤xu​ (p. 33).
  3. The local layer (13) satisfies (10) whenever ϕ\phiϕ is invariant to the order of the neighbourhood (p. 34).
  4. Invariant and equivariant functions give identical outputs on isomorphic graphs (p. 35).
  5. On the complete graph A=11⊤\mathbf A=\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\topA=11⊤, the aggregate ⨁v∈Vψ(xv)\bigoplus_{v\in\mathcal V}\psi(\mathbf x_v)⨁v∈V​ψ(xv​) is the same at every node (§5.4, p. 81).

Stronger statements

  • Several channels (corrected). A linear F:Rn×d→Rn×d′\mathbf F:\mathbb R^{n\times d}\to\mathbb R^{n\times d'}F:Rn×d→Rn×d′ is permutation equivariant iff F(X)=XΘ1+1n11⊤XΘ2\mathbf F(\mathbf X)=\mathbf X\boldsymbol\Theta_1+\tfrac1n\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\top\mathbf X\boldsymbol\Theta_2F(X)=XΘ1​+n1​11⊤XΘ2​.
  • Adjacency matrices (Maron et al., corrected). For n≥4n\ge4n≥4, the linear maps L:Rn×n→Rn×nL:\mathbb R^{n\times n}\to\mathbb R^{n\times n}L:Rn×n→Rn×n with L(PAP⊤)=PL(A)P⊤L(\mathbf P\mathbf A\mathbf P^\top)=\mathbf P L(\mathbf A)\mathbf P^\topL(PAP⊤)=PL(A)P⊤ form a space of dimension 15=B415=B_415=B4​.

Significance

The result. The goal classifies the linear layers of a set network. Any equivariant linear layer on scalar node features mixes each node's own value with the mean of all values, and nothing else; with several channels the two scalars become two weight matrices, which is exactly the Deep Sets layer. Read the other way, the theorem says that the commutant of the permutation representation of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ on Rn\mathbb R^nRn is two-dimensional (for n≥2n\ge2n≥2), the algebraic fact behind the decomposition Rn=span(1)⊕1⊥\mathbb R^n=\mathrm{span}(\mathbf 1)\oplus\mathbf 1^\perpRn=span(1)⊕1⊥ into two irreducible pieces. The Maron et al. count does the same for layers acting on adjacency matrices and fixes the size of the parameter space of invariant graph networks. The milestones give the elementary invariance and equivariance facts on which the graph-network chapter rests, including the constant aggregate on a complete graph.

Formalizing it. All results here are classical and proved on paper. None is formalized on Prove2Me, and Mathlib has no statement about the commutant of the permutation representation or about equivariant layers on sets. The mission produces a vocabulary of permutation actions on feature and adjacency matrices, and the invariance and equivariance definitions (9)–(10), that later missions of this series (the WL comparison, the E(3)-equivariant layer) also use. Two of the book's printed claims need correction to be true, and the formal statements record the corrected versions.

Difficulty

The milestones are short reindexing arguments; the work is in choosing encodings that keep them faithful. The goal's "if" direction is a one-line computation. The "only if" direction is where an argument is needed: equivariance under all of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ must force the matrix of F\mathbf FF to have one value on the diagonal and one value off it. Equivariance under a smaller group does not suffice: commuting with the cyclic shift alone gives all circulant matrices, an nnn-dimensional space, so the argument must use permutations beyond the shifts. The channel version adds a tensor-product layer to the same argument. The Maron et al. count is a dimension statement, so it needs both a spanning family and its independence, and the count is sensitive to nnn: for n<4n<4n<4 the dimension is strictly smaller than 15, so any argument must use n≥4n\ge4n≥4 somewhere.

Formalization scope

Node features are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin d) ℝ (rows are nodes); a single channel is Fin n → ℝ. A permutation is σ : Equiv.Perm (Fin n), acting by X.submatrix σ.symm id (row uuu of PX\mathbf P\mathbf XPX is row σ−1(u)\sigma^{-1}(u)σ−1(u)) and on adjacency matrices by A.submatrix σ.symm σ.symm; this one convention is used in every statement. Adjacency matrices are real; the edge set is the set of nonzero entries, which for the book's 0/1 matrix (8) is its edge set and also admits weighted graphs. The function ϕ\phiϕ of (13) and the aggregator ⨁\bigoplus⨁ of §5.4 take a Multiset, so their invariance to the order of the neighbours holds by construction. The average 1n11⊤\tfrac1n\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\topn1​11⊤ is written with (n:R)−1(n:\mathbb R)^{-1}(n:R)−1, and the goal and channel version assume 0<n0<n0<n. Equivariance quantifies over every permutation of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​, never a generating subset. The complete-graph item states the identical-aggregate clause of §5.4. The page's later claim of equal expressive power across inputs is false: with n=2n=2n=2, ψ(x)=x\psi(x)=xψ(x)=x, ⨁=∑\bigoplus=\sum⨁=∑, and ϕ(x,s)=s\phi(x,s)=sϕ(x,s)=s, changing x2x_2x2​ changes h1h_1h1​ while x1x_1x1​ stays fixed, which no node-only map can reproduce.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: "equivariant" is the commutation property itself, never defined as "of the form αI+β1n11⊤\alpha\mathbf I+\beta\tfrac1n\mathbf 1\mathbf 1^\topαI+βn1​11⊤".

Two printed claims are corrected. On p. 33 the two-generator form is stated for matrices X\mathbf XX with ddd channels; it is false for d>1d>1d>1 (the map X↦XΘ\mathbf X\mapsto\mathbf X\boldsymbol\ThetaX↦XΘ of (7) is a counterexample), so the goal is single-channel and the multi-channel statement uses weight matrices. On p. 34 the fifteen generators are said to be independent of nnn; the dimension is 1, 8 and 14 for n=1,2,3n=1,2,3n=1,2,3, so that item assumes n≥4n\ge4n≥4, and it is stated for adjacency-to-adjacency maps as the side-note on p. 33 specifies.

The development needs Mathlib's Equiv.Perm, Matrix.submatrix, Finset sums and reindexing (Equiv.sum_comp), Multiset.map, and Module.finrank. Proofs of the commutant statements, of the multi-channel version and of the dimension count are welcome; the permutation-action and invariance lemmas proved along the way are reusable by any later development on graph networks.

Selected references

  • M. M. Bronstein, J. Bruna, T. Cohen, P. Veličković, Geometric Deep Learning: Grids, Groups, Graphs, Geodesics, and Gauges, arXiv preprint, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.13478v2
  • M. Zaheer, S. Kottur, S. Ravanbakhsh, B. Póczos, R. Salakhutdinov, A. Smola, Deep Sets, NeurIPS, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.06114
  • H. Maron, H. Ben-Hamu, N. Shamir, Y. Lipman, Invariant and Equivariant Graph Networks, ICLR, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.09902
  • C. R. Qi, H. Su, K. Mo, L. J. Guibas, PointNet: Deep Learning on Point Sets for 3D Classification and Segmentation, CVPR, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.00593
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🏆Completed
Group TheoryHarmonic Analysis·Captain: mikedeng1

Geometric Deep Learning IV: Group Convolution (x ⋆ θ)(g) = ⟨x, ρ(g)θ⟩ Against an Invariant Measure Is Equivariant, (ρ(h)x) ⋆ θ = ρ(h)(x ⋆ θ)Textbook

Motivation

Convolutional networks use the same filter at many locations. A shift of the input then shifts the output in a predictable way, allowing one set of filter coefficients to serve every location. Bronstein, Bruna, Cohen and Veličković, Geometric Deep Learning, §4.3, pp. 40–43 ask how this idea extends when the transformations form a group and the signal domain need not be the group itself. A grid and its cyclic shifts are one example; a sphere and its rotation group are another. In the latter example, a rotation is an output index even though it is not a point of the sphere. This distinction matters when a second convolutional layer processes the first layer's output.

The chapter places this construction within its general account of geometric deep learning: symmetries specify how inputs transform, and a compatible map should transform its outputs in a corresponding way. Here the concrete question is whether the integral defining group convolution has that compatibility. The source calls this property equivariance and gives it immediately after equation (14). The book numbers equations but no theorems, lemmas, propositions, or definitions, so the items below are cited by section, equation, and printed page.

Setting

Let GGG be a group acting transitively on a domain Ω\OmegaΩ; write g⋅ug\cdot ug⋅u for the image of u∈Ωu\in\Omegau∈Ω. The section makes this homogeneous-domain assumption explicit on p. 43. A signal is a scalar function x:Ω→Rx:\Omega\to\mathbb Rx:Ω→R, and a filter is another such function θ\thetaθ. The group acts on signals by the inverse action on their arguments:

(ρ(g)x)(u)=x(g−1⋅u).(\rho(g)x)(u)=x(g^{-1}\cdot u).(ρ(g)x)(u)=x(g−1⋅u).

This convention makes ρ\rhoρ a left group representation on functions. Let μ\muμ be a measure on Ω\OmegaΩ invariant under the action of every element of GGG. The book states this measure convention beside its pairing formula on p. 41. The pairing and group convolution are

⟨x,θ⟩μ=∫Ωx(u)θ(u) dμ(u),(x⋆θ)(g)=⟨x,ρ(g)θ⟩μ=∫Ωx(u)θ(g−1⋅u) dμ(u).\langle x,\theta\rangle_\mu=\int_\Omega x(u)\theta(u)\,d\mu(u),\qquad (x\star\theta)(g)=\langle x,\rho(g)\theta\rangle_\mu =\int_\Omega x(u)\theta(g^{-1}\cdot u)\,d\mu(u).⟨x,θ⟩μ​=∫Ω​x(u)θ(u)dμ(u),(x⋆θ)(g)=⟨x,ρ(g)θ⟩μ​=∫Ω​x(u)θ(g−1⋅u)dμ(u).

The convolution is indexed by g∈Gg\in Gg∈G, so it is a signal on GGG, even when Ω\OmegaΩ and GGG are different spaces. Signals y:G→Ry:G\to\mathbb Ry:G→R use the regular action (ρG(h)y)(g)=y(h−1g)(\rho_G(h)y)(g)=y(h^{-1}g)(ρG​(h)y)(g)=y(h−1g). On the cyclic grid Zn\mathbb Z_nZn​, the source uses u⋅v=v−uu\cdot v=v-uu⋅v=v−u for the action of a shift uuu on an index vvv. These conventions are the ones used throughout this mission. Equation (14) and the surrounding definitions, §4.3, pp. 41–43.

Formalization targets

Group convolution is equivariant

For every h,g∈Gh,g\in Gh,g∈G and scalar signals x,θx,\thetax,θ on Ω\OmegaΩ, the main target is

((ρ(h)x)⋆θ)(g)=(ρG(h)(x⋆θ))(g)=(x⋆θ)(h−1g).((\rho(h)x)\star\theta)(g) = (\rho_G(h)(x\star\theta))(g) = (x\star\theta)(h^{-1}g).((ρ(h)x)⋆θ)(g)=(ρG​(h)(x⋆θ))(g)=(x⋆θ)(h−1g).

The theorem keeps the domain action ρ\rhoρ and the output regular action ρG\rho_GρG​ distinct. The invariant measure and transitive action are part of the source's setting. §4.3, equation (14) and the following displayed identity, p. 41; homogeneous-domain assumption, p. 43.

Source claims that support the target

The milestone list records three claims from the same section. First, the pairing matches a transformed filter to the inversely transformed signal: ⟨x,ρ(g)θ⟩μ=⟨ρ(g−1)x,θ⟩μ\langle x,\rho(g)\theta\rangle_\mu=\langle\rho(g^{-1})x,\theta\rangle_\mu⟨x,ρ(g)θ⟩μ​=⟨ρ(g−1)x,θ⟩μ​. Second, the signal action satisfies ρ(h−1)ρ(g)=ρ(h−1g)\rho(h^{-1})\rho(g)=\rho(h^{-1}g)ρ(h−1)ρ(g)=ρ(h−1g). Third, for n>0n>0n>0 on the cyclic grid, the finite-sum instance of group convolution has the form (x⋆θ)u=∑v=0n−1xvθv+u(modn)(x\star\theta)_u=\sum_{v=0}^{n-1}x_v\theta_{v+u\pmod n}(x⋆θ)u​=∑v=0n−1​xv​θv+u(modn)​. The source's side-note calls the last expression cross-correlation. §4.3, pp. 41–42.

Significance

The equality specifies what happens to every output coordinate after a group transformation of the input. Its output is a function on GGG, so the statement also fixes which action later layers must use. In the sphere example, the first convolution produces a function on the rotation group rather than a function on the sphere; the book then describes applying a second group convolution on that output. §4.3, pp. 42–43.

The result is proved in the source. The remaining work here is to make the invariant measure, the two actions, and the real integral into separately inspectable Lean definitions and to supply machine-checked proofs of the open theorem statements. The cyclic example checks the sign convention at a concrete boundary: using v−uv-uv−u for the group action yields v+uv+uv+u after applying the inverse shift. Those definitions can also support later formalizations of group-indexed layers. This mission does not assert results for learned networks or approximation power; its target is the mathematical convolution identity displayed in the book.

Difficulty

The two occurrences of ρ\rhoρ in the printed identity act on different function spaces. On the left, ρ(h)\rho(h)ρ(h) transforms a signal on Ω\OmegaΩ; on the right, the regular action transforms a function on GGG. Treating both as a single action obscures the type and can silently reverse the group multiplication order. The group need not be commutative, so this order matters. The measure must also be invariant: a Dirac measure concentrated at a point that moves under the group generally changes the pairing and breaks the claimed equivariance. In the cyclic example, an inverse shift changes the sign again, which is why the output has v+uv+uv+u rather than v−uv-uv−u.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a signal as a function Ω→R\Omega\to\mathbb RΩ→R, the group action using MulAction, and the measure as a measure on Ω\OmegaΩ. The action on signals, the pairing, group convolution, and the output regular action are explicit functions. The integral theorems require a transitive action, as the section specifies on p. 43, plus measurable spaces on GGG and Ω\OmegaΩ, a measurable group action, and an invariant measure. These are the conditions under which the source's change of variables is meaningful. The cyclic example applies the same group convolution to the counting measure on ZMod n, n>0n>0n>0, with the shift group acting by v↦v−uv\mapsto v-uv↦v−u. It does not identify a cyclic convolution with a planar convolution or assume the group and domain coincide in the general theorem.

The source describes X(Ω)\mathcal X(\Omega)X(Ω) as a Hilbert space. The Lean theorem states the integral identity for arbitrary real functions; on integrable products the pairing has its ordinary meaning, while Lean assigns zero to a nonintegrable integral. The identity remains valid at those totalized inputs because the same measure-preserving transformation relates the two integrands. No integrability hypothesis is used to reduce the stated range. The zero measure is included, but the theorem is universal over invariant measures, including nonzero counting measure on finite group actions; it cannot be proved by choosing a zero measure or an empty domain. Reusable contributions include properties of the signal action, invariant integration under actions, and finite cyclic examples. The transform-and-convolve equation (32) and the second-layer composition on GGG are outside this chunk's milestone list.

Selected references

  • M. M. Bronstein, J. Bruna, T. Cohen and P. Veličković, Geometric Deep Learning: Grids, Groups, Graphs, Geodesics, and Gauges, arXiv preprint arXiv:2104.13478v2, 2021. arXiv.
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Hidden Integrality and Semirandom Robustness of SDP Relaxation for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Model: The SDP Clustering Error Is at Most Twice the Oracle Integer Program ErrorResearch Paper

Why compare a clustering SDP with an oracle?

Clustering methods must infer a partition from noisy observations, while the quality of a partition is usually judged against labels that the method cannot see. Fei and Chen study a balanced sub-Gaussian mixture model in which a semidefinite program (SDP) estimates a cluster matrix from pairwise distances. Their Theorem 1 relates its error to a simpler integer program allowed to know the true cluster centers. This comparison makes the SDP's error interpretable through an explicit benchmark, even when exact recovery is unavailable. The paper also investigates semi-random perturbations, but this mission targets the Model 1 comparison on which that broader discussion builds.

The tension is that an SDP solution may be fractional. Its entries express pairwise affinities, whereas an assignment matrix places each point in exactly one cluster. The result bounds the fractional matrix's entrywise error by an integer assignment error without assuming that the SDP solution itself is integral. That is the hidden-integrality claim relevant to this mission.

The model and the two optimization problems

There are n≥4n\ge4n≥4 observations in Rd\mathbb R^dRd and k≥2k\ge2k≥2 clusters. The true label of point iii is σ∗(i)∈[k]\sigma^*(i)\in[k]σ∗(i)∈[k], and every cluster contains exactly ℓ=n/k\ell=n/kℓ=n/k points. For unknown centers μ1,…,μk\mu_1,\ldots,\mu_kμ1​,…,μk​, the observations have the form

hi=μσ∗(i)+gi.h_i=\mu_{\sigma^*(i)}+g_i.hi​=μσ∗(i)​+gi​.

The noise vectors gig_igi​ are independent, measurable, zero-mean, and sub-Gaussian. Their vector sub-Gaussian norms are at most τ>0\tau>0τ>0. The minimum center separation and signal-to-noise ratio are

Δ=min⁡a≠b∥μa−μb∥2,s=Δ/τ.\Delta=\min_{a\ne b}\|\mu_a-\mu_b\|_2,\qquad s=\Delta/\tau.Δ=a=bmin​∥μa​−μb​∥2​,s=Δ/τ.

The SDP uses the squared-distance matrix Aij=∥hi−hj∥22A_{ij}=\|h_i-h_j\|_2^2Aij​=∥hi​−hj​∥22​. It minimizes ⟨Y,A⟩=∑i,jYijAij\langle Y,A\rangle=\sum_{i,j}Y_{ij}A_{ij}⟨Y,A⟩=∑i,j​Yij​Aij​ over real n×nn\times nn×n matrices with row sums n/kn/kn/k, diagonal entries one, nonnegative entries, and symmetric positive semidefiniteness. Write Y^\widehat YY for any optimum. The true cluster matrix is Yij∗=1Y^*_{ij}=1Yij∗​=1 when σ∗(i)=σ∗(j)\sigma^*(i)=\sigma^*(j)σ∗(i)=σ∗(j) and 000 otherwise. Its error is measured by the entrywise norm ∥Y^−Y∗∥1=∑i,j∣Y^ij−Yij∗∣\|\widehat Y-Y^*\|_1=\sum_{i,j}|\widehat Y_{ij}-Y^*_{ij}|∥Y−Y∗∥1​=∑i,j​∣Yij​−Yij∗​∣.

The benchmark is an Oracle Integer Program. An assignment matrix F∈FF\in\mathcal FF∈F has zero-one entries and exactly one one in each row. The true assignment is Fja∗=1{σ∗(j)=a}F^*_{ja}=\mathbf1\{\sigma^*(j)=a\}Fja∗​=1{σ∗(j)=a}. The oracle sees the centers and augmented observations hˉj=μσ∗(j)+(2κ)−1gj\bar h_j=\mu_{\sigma^*(j)}+(2\kappa)^{-1}g_jhˉj​=μσ∗(j)​+(2κ)−1gj​ with the fixed κ=1/8\kappa=1/8κ=1/8, so its noise is four times the realized noise in hjh_jhj​. It minimizes

η(F)=∑j,a∥hˉj−μa∥22Fja.\eta(F)=\sum_{j,a}\|\bar h_j-\mu_a\|_2^2F_{ja}.η(F)=j,a∑​∥hˉj​−μa​∥22​Fja​.

The Oracle error is the largest 12∥F−F∗∥1\tfrac12\|F-F^*\|_121​∥F−F∗∥1​ among assignments satisfying η(F)≤η(F∗)\eta(F)\le\eta(F^*)η(F)≤η(F∗). The Oracle feasible set has no balance constraint. In contrast, the SDP retains the row-sum constraint inherited from balanced clustering.

Formalization targets

Main goal: Theorem 1

The goal is the paper's quantitative comparison. It asserts that universal constants Cs>0C_s>0Cs​>0 and C≥1C\ge1C≥1 exist such that, when

s2≥Cs(kdnlog⁡n+kdn+k),s^2\ge C_s\left(\sqrt{\frac{kd}{n}\log n}+\frac{kd}{n}+k\right),s2≥Cs​(nkd​logn​+nkd​+k),

an event of probability at least 1−n−C−2e−n1-n^{-C}-2e^{-n}1−n−C−2e−n has, for every realized SDP optimum Y^\widehat YY, the bound

∥Y^−Y∗∥1∥Y∗∥1≤2max⁡F∈Fη(F)≤η(F∗)∥F−F∗∥1∥F∗∥1.\frac{\|\widehat Y-Y^*\|_1}{\|Y^*\|_1} \le 2\max_{\substack{F\in\mathcal F\\\eta(F)\le\eta(F^*)}} \frac{\|F-F^*\|_1}{\|F^*\|_1}.∥Y∗∥1​∥Y−Y∗∥1​​≤2F∈Fη(F)≤η(F∗)​max​∥F∗∥1​∥F−F∗∥1​​.

The constants are independent of n,k,dn,k,dn,k,d, the centers, the labels, and the noise law. The event and the SDP optimum are chosen after the random observations are realized. The theorem fixes the factor two and the failure-probability expression exactly as printed.

Milestone results

The eight milestones follow the statements in Section 5: the six structural properties of the SDP error matrix (Fact 2), the basic inequality (16), the signal estimate (Proposition 3), the two noise estimates (Propositions 1 and 2), the representation of the remaining term (Lemma 1), the identity between the integer program and Oracle error (Lemma 2), and the final deterministic bound. Each milestone keeps the paper's constants and its own hypotheses. Together they expose the interfaces needed to close Theorem 1.

What the comparison gives

Theorem 1 transfers a question about a real matrix optimum to a finite assignment benchmark. The Oracle benchmark can itself be bounded under additional assumptions, as Fei and Chen do in their separate Theorem 2. The present target preserves the comparison even in regimes where the benchmark does not vanish. It therefore expresses an error guarantee rather than an exact-recovery assertion.

A complete Lean proof would connect a probability model, finite-dimensional semidefinite feasibility, and the paper's integer assignment comparison. At present these mission statements are draft proof obligations: compiling a statement with sorry checks its formulation but does not prove the result. The development reuses published definitions of scalar and vector sub-Gaussian norms; proving the new lemmas and the main theorem remains open within this mission.

Where the difficulty lies

SDP optimality gives an inequality for the squared-distance objective, but it does not directly bound the entrywise difference from Y∗Y^*Y∗. Noise enters that objective through both a Gram matrix and mixed center-noise terms. A direct entrywise comparison also ignores the row-sum and positive-semidefinite structure that constrains the SDP error.

On the benchmark side, replacing a fractional matrix error by an arbitrary rounded assignment would not retain the stated factor. The paper identifies an intermediate linear program whose value can be controlled at integer cardinalities. Formalizing the result requires preserving that cardinality constraint, the exact coefficient κ=1/8\kappa=1/8κ=1/8, and the distinction between the observed points and the oracle's augmented points.

Formalization scope

Points, clusters, and coordinates use finite index types; Lean indices start at zero while the paper's [n][n][n] and [k][k][k] start at one. All matrices are real. The trace inner product is represented by a double sum, the matrix ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm is entrywise, and the spectral norm in Proposition 2 uses the L2L^2L2 operator norm. The minimum separation ranges over distinct center pairs, which is nonempty when k≥2k\ge2k≥2. Oracle maxima are finite, nonempty, bounded sets; the true assignment is a feasible candidate. The normalized denominators are nonzero under n≥4n\ge4n≥4 and k≥2k\ge2k≥2 with balanced labels.

The random model uses one probability space and the same noise realization in both hhh and hˉ\bar hhˉ. Measurability, zero mean, independence, and the extended-nonnegative vector sub-Gaussian norm bound are explicit. High-probability conclusions use measurable events and quantify over every optimum at each realized data set. Deterministic milestones take a fixed realization and do not add a probability space. The universal constants occur before all model parameters. These choices rule out a vacuous instance-dependent SNR constant, a norm that assigns zero to heavy-tailed noise, and an SDP optimum chosen before observing the noise.

The scope is Theorem 1 and its selected Section 5 statements. Theorem 2's separate Oracle-error rate, the rounding algorithm, semi-random Model 2, and the stochastic-ball special case are outside this proposal. Reusable work includes the SDP and assignment interfaces, matrix-error identities, and finite integer-program comparisons. Contributions that prove the eight source milestones or establish their supporting concentration and finite-dimensional optimization results are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Fei and Y. Chen, Hidden Integrality and Semi-Random Robustness of SDP Relaxation for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Model, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:1803.06510v2, the version and pagination used here.
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The Elliptical Potential Lemma for General Distributions with an Application to Linear Thompson Sampling: For Any Prior and Noise, E[Σ Aₜᵀ Γₜ Aₜ] ≤ 2 max(σ², 1) log det(I + T Γ₁)Research Paper

Motivation

In a linear bandit problem, a learner chooses a vector and observes a noisy scalar response that carries information about an unknown parameter. Regret analyses often need to control the sum of the learner's uncertainty in the directions it chooses. The familiar elliptical potential lemma does this when uncertainty is represented by the inverse of a deterministic, successively updated Gram matrix. Bayesian learning presents a different object: the posterior covariance of the unknown parameter given the observations. It changes with the realized data and can increase on an individual sample path. Hamidi and Bayati's technical note establishes a potential bound for this posterior object under general prior and noise distributions and uses it to analyze linear Thompson sampling.

The deterministic lemma and the posterior result answer related but distinct questions. In the deterministic setting, the update is fixed by the chosen vectors. Here, actions may depend on earlier observations and the next posterior covariance is itself random. The mission concerns the latter claim, including the observation model that gives the covariance its meaning.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space with an increasing filtration (Ft)t≥1(\mathcal F_t)_{t\ge1}(Ft​)t≥1​. An unknown parameter Θ⋆∈Rd\Theta^\star\in\mathbb R^dΘ⋆∈Rd obeys ∥Θ⋆∥2≤1\|\Theta^\star\|_2\le1∥Θ⋆∥2​≤1 almost surely. At time ttt, the learner chooses an Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable action At∈RdA_t\in\mathbb R^dAt​∈Rd with ∥At∥2≤1\|A_t\|_2\le1∥At​∥2​≤1 almost surely. An observation YtY_tYt​, measurable at time t+1t+1t+1, has conditional mean ⟨Θ⋆,At⟩\langle\Theta^\star,A_t\rangle⟨Θ⋆,At​⟩ and conditional variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2 when both Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ and Θ⋆\Theta^\starΘ⋆ are known. No Gaussian law or independent noise model is part of these assumptions.

Write Γt=Var⁡(Θ⋆∣Ft)\Gamma_t=\operatorname{Var}(\Theta^\star\mid\mathcal F_t)Γt​=Var(Θ⋆∣Ft​) for the posterior covariance matrix. The quantity At⊤ΓtAtA_t^\top\Gamma_t A_tAt⊤​Γt​At​ is the remaining parameter uncertainty in the chosen direction. The matrix function used to measure accumulated uncertainty is

f(Σ,x)=log⁡det⁡(I+xΣ),Σ⪰0,x>0.f(\Sigma,x)=\log\det(I+x\Sigma),\qquad \Sigma\succeq0,\quad x>0.f(Σ,x)=logdet(I+xΣ),Σ⪰0,x>0.

The matrix order B⪰AB\succeq AB⪰A means that B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite. Conditional expectations of matrices are taken entrywise. The filtration can contain information beyond the actions and observations; it need not be generated by them.

Formalization targets

The first target is the source's stochastic variance reduction inequality. For every t≥1t\ge1t≥1, almost surely,

E[Γt+1∣Ft]⪯Γt−Γt⊤AtAt⊤Γtσ2+At⊤ΓtAt.\mathbb E[\Gamma_{t+1}\mid\mathcal F_t]\preceq\Gamma_t-\frac{\Gamma_t^\top A_tA_t^\top\Gamma_t}{\sigma^2+A_t^\top\Gamma_t A_t}.E[Γt+1​∣Ft​]⪯Γt​−σ2+At⊤​Γt​At​Γt⊤​At​At⊤​Γt​​.

The matrix potential targets are the concavity of f(⋅,x)f(\cdot,x)f(⋅,x) on the positive semidefinite cone and equation (2.2): if Σ′=Σ−ΣVV⊤Σ/(1+V⊤ΣV)\Sigma'=\Sigma-\Sigma VV^\top\Sigma/(1+V^\top\Sigma V)Σ′=Σ−ΣVV⊤Σ/(1+V⊤ΣV), then

log⁡(1+V⊤ΣV)+f(Σ′,x)≤f(Σ,x+V⊤V).\log(1+V^\top\Sigma V)+f(\Sigma',x)\le f(\Sigma,x+V^\top V).log(1+V⊤ΣV)+f(Σ′,x)≤f(Σ,x+V⊤V).

Two scalar and covariance bounds from the proof complete the milestone list: x≤2log⁡(1+x)x\le2\log(1+x)x≤2log(1+x) on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and At⊤ΓtAt≤1A_t^\top\Gamma_t A_t\le1At⊤​Γt​At​≤1 almost surely. The main target, a conditional formulation of Theorem 2.1, is

E ⁣[∑t=1TAt⊤ΓtAt | F1]≤2max⁡(σ2,1)log⁡det⁡(I+TΓ1)almost surely.\mathbb E\!\left[\sum_{t=1}^{T}A_t^\top\Gamma_t A_t\,\middle|\,\mathcal F_1\right]\le 2\max(\sigma^2,1)\log\det(I+T\Gamma_1)\quad\text{almost surely}.E[t=1∑T​At⊤​Γt​At​​F1​]≤2max(σ2,1)logdet(I+TΓ1​)almost surely.

The source prints an unconditional expectation on the left although Γ1\Gamma_1Γ1​ can be random. Conditioning on F1\mathcal F_1F1​ supplies a coherent general statement; it becomes the printed display when the initial information is trivial. The goal retains the explicit factor 2max⁡(σ2,1)2\max(\sigma^2,1)2max(σ2,1) and the horizon TTT inside the log determinant.

Significance

The result controls a cumulative, adaptively selected posterior quadratic form using only the initial posterior covariance, the horizon and the conditional noise bound. It permits a regret analysis of linear Thompson sampling without replacing the prior by a Gaussian model. In the source, this bound feeds the Bayesian regret theorem for that algorithm; that later theorem is outside this mission's scope. Its proof would also require formalizing the sampling policy and its action-selection law.

The formal development fixes a reusable interface for finite-dimensional posterior covariance under a filtration: a parameter, adapted actions, conditional moments of observations, and an entrywise matrix covariance. It also states the matrix potential claims separately from the probability model, so those claims can serve other analyses of covariance updates. The statements compile locally as open Lean theorems; this mission does not claim machine-checked proofs of them. The deterministic elliptical potential statement already available elsewhere uses a Gram-matrix update and does not establish this posterior result.

Difficulty

Posterior covariance is not pathwise decreasing. The paper's Section 2 example has an observation after which Γ2>Γ1\Gamma_2>\Gamma_1Γ2​>Γ1​. A bound that assumes Γt+1⪯Γt\Gamma_{t+1}\preceq\Gamma_tΓt+1​⪯Γt​ for every outcome therefore fails at the first stochastic step. The issue matters especially when actions are adapted: later actions can point toward directions whose posterior variance became large after earlier data. Conditional covariance reduction is a matrix inequality, while the target is a scalar sum of quadratic forms; its potential must remain valid across those different objects.

Formalization scope

Lean uses vectors Fin d → ℝ and the Euclidean dot product, so the unit-ball assumptions mean v⊤v≤1v^\top v\le1v⊤v≤1. The posterior covariance is the conditional expectation of centered coordinate products. The expectation of a covariance matrix is defined entrywise; matrix order is positive semidefiniteness of the difference. The conditioning sigma-algebra for YtY_tYt​ is Ft∨σ(Θ⋆)\mathcal F_t\vee\sigma(\Theta^\star)Ft​∨σ(Θ⋆), not merely Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. Every observation is explicitly square-integrable, so Lean's totalized conditional variance cannot silently return zero for a non-square-integrable input. The source's bound on the parameter already supplies its integrability.

Rounds start at 111; the finite sum uses 1≤t≤T1\le t\le T1≤t≤T. At T=0T=0T=0 it is empty and both sides of the goal are zero. No positivity assumption on σ\sigmaσ is imposed, since the statements use σ2\sigma^2σ2 and the zero-denominator covariance correction has zero numerator. The log determinant is used on positive semidefinite covariance matrices with nonnegative scalar argument, where its determinant is positive. The paper's square-root factorization of Σ′\Sigma'Σ′ is represented by its equal direct matrix formula. A deterministic Gram matrix in place of Γt\Gamma_tΓt​, an independent-observation construction in place of the conditional-moment model, or a supremum-norm ball would change the theorem. The separate matrix and probability lemmas, conditional expectation infrastructure, and finite-dimensional matrix order are the principal reusable components.

Selected references

  • Nima Hamidi and Mohsen Bayati, The Elliptical Potential Lemma for General Distributions with an Application to Linear Thompson Sampling, technical note, Operations Research, 2023; formalization source: arXiv:2102.07987v3, 2022, §2 and Appendix A.
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The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory VII: Tikhonov Regularization of Ill-Posed ProblemsTextbook

Why ill-posed problems appear in learning

Estimating a probability density, a conditional probability or a conditional density from data can be written as solving a linear operator equation Af=FAf = FAf=F whose right-hand side FFF is a distribution function. The true FFF is unknown; only its empirical estimate FℓF_\ellFℓ​ is available, built from ℓ\ellℓ observations. The Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov law (Vapnik 2000, §7.3) guarantee that FℓF_\ellFℓ​ is close to FFF in the uniform metric. However, the operator AAA (for densities, integration) has an unbounded inverse. A small change in the right-hand side can produce an arbitrarily large change in the solution, so solving Af=FℓAf = F_\ellAf=Fℓ​ directly gives nonsense. Hadamard called such problems ill-posed.

Regularization handles this. Tikhonov (1963) proposed replacing the equation by the minimization of a penalized residual. Tikhonov and Arsenin (1977) proved that the regularized solutions converge to the true solution when the data error and the regularization parameter go to zero together in a controlled way. Vapnik and Stefanyuk (1978) extended this to random right-hand sides, the case of statistical estimation, and Stefanyuk (1986) to the case where the operator is estimated as well. Chapter 7 of The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory collects these results, without proofs, as the foundation of its SVM approach to density and conditional-probability estimation. This mission formalizes them.

Setting

Let (E1,ρE1)(E_1, \rho_{E_1})(E1​,ρE1​​) and (E2,ρE2)(E_2, \rho_{E_2})(E2​,ρE2​​) be metric spaces and A:E1→E2A : E_1 \to E_2A:E1​→E2​ a continuous one-to-one operator. The operator equation (7.12) is Af=FAf = FAf=F. Its solution fff exists and is unique, but A−1A^{-1}A−1 need not be continuous.

A regularization functional is a map Ω:E1→[0,∞]\Omega : E_1 \to [0, \infty]Ω:E1​→[0,∞] that is lower semicontinuous and whose sublevel sets {g:Ω(g)≤c}\{g : \Omega(g) \le c\}{g:Ω(g)≤c} are compact for every c>0c > 0c>0. Its domain is {Ω<∞}\{\Omega < \infty\}{Ω<∞}. In Lean this is NatureSLT.IllPosed.IsRegularizer.

Tikhonov's functional (Method T) for a parameter γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0 and a right-hand side F′F'F′ is

WT(g)=ρE22(Ag,F′)+γ Ω(g),W_T(g) = \rho^2_{E_2}(A g, F') + \gamma\, \Omega(g),WT​(g)=ρE2​2​(Ag,F′)+γΩ(g),

which is NatureSLT.IllPosed.tikhonovFunctional. A regularized solution is any minimizer of WTW_TWT​ over E1E_1E1​.

In the deterministic problem, for every δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 an approximation FδF_\deltaFδ​ with ρE2(F,Fδ)≤δ\rho_{E_2}(F, F_\delta) \le \deltaρE2​​(F,Fδ​)≤δ is given, and fδf_\deltafδ​ minimizes WTW_TWT​ with F′=FδF' = F_\deltaF′=Fδ​ and γ=γ(δ)\gamma = \gamma(\delta)γ=γ(δ). In the stochastic problem, FℓF_\ellFℓ​ are random elements of E2E_2E2​ converging to FFF in probability, and fℓf_\ellfℓ​ minimizes WTW_TWT​ with F′=FℓF' = F_\ellF′=Fℓ​ and γ=γℓ→0\gamma = \gamma_\ell \to 0γ=γℓ​→0. When the operator is also estimated by random continuous operators AℓA_\ellAℓ​, their distance to AAA is measured by (7.48),

∥Aℓ−A∥=sup⁡Ω(f)<∞ρE2(Aℓf,Af)Ω1/2(f),\|A_\ell - A\| = \sup_{\Omega(f) < \infty} \frac{\rho_{E_2}(A_\ell f, A f)}{\Omega^{1/2}(f)},∥Aℓ​−A∥=Ω(f)<∞sup​Ω1/2(f)ρE2​​(Aℓ​f,Af)​,

which is NatureSLT.IllPosed.operatorDistance.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 238)

Let the exact solution fff lie in the domain of Ω\OmegaΩ, and suppose γ(δ)>0\gamma(\delta) > 0γ(δ)>0 satisfies (7.17):

γ(δ)→0 (δ→0),lim sup⁡δ→0+δ2γ(δ)≤r<∞.\gamma(\delta) \to 0 \ (\delta \to 0), \qquad \limsup_{\delta \to 0^+} \frac{\delta^2}{\gamma(\delta)} \le r < \infty .γ(δ)→0 (δ→0),δ→0+limsup​γ(δ)δ2​≤r<∞.

Then every family of minimizers fδf_\deltafδ​ of ρE22(Ag,Fδ)+γ(δ)Ω(g)\rho^2_{E_2}(Ag, F_\delta) + \gamma(\delta)\Omega(g)ρE2​2​(Ag,Fδ​)+γ(δ)Ω(g) satisfies fδ→ff_\delta \to ffδ​→f in E1E_1E1​ as δ→0+\delta \to 0^+δ→0+. This is the weakest statement in the chapter: it fixes no rate and assumes only metric structure.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 7.2 (p. 238). E1E_1E1​ is a real Hilbert space, AAA is linear, Ω(f)=∥f∥2\Omega(f) = \|f\|^2Ω(f)=∥f∥2, γ(δ)→0\gamma(\delta) \to 0γ(δ)→0 and δ2/γ(δ)→0\delta^2/\gamma(\delta) \to 0δ2/γ(δ)→0 (7.18). Then minimizers of (7.19) converge to fff in norm.
  2. Theorem 7.3 (p. 239). For any ε,μ>0\varepsilon, \mu > 0ε,μ>0 there is n(ε,μ)n(\varepsilon,\mu)n(ε,μ) such that for all ℓ>n(ε,μ)\ell > n(\varepsilon,\mu)ℓ>n(ε,μ)
P{ρE1(fℓ,f)>ε}≤P{ρE2(Fℓ,F)>γℓ μ}.(7.21)P\{\rho_{E_1}(f_\ell, f) > \varepsilon\} \le P\{\rho_{E_2}(F_\ell, F) > \sqrt{\gamma_\ell\,\mu}\}. \tag{7.21}P{ρE1​​(fℓ​,f)>ε}≤P{ρE2​​(Fℓ​,F)>γℓ​μ​}.(7.21)
  1. Theorem 7.4 (p. 239). E1E_1E1​ Hilbert, AAA linear, Ω(f)=∥f∥2\Omega(f) = \|f\|^2Ω(f)=∥f∥2. For any ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 there is n(ε)n(\varepsilon)n(ε) such that for all ℓ>n(ε)\ell > n(\varepsilon)ℓ>n(ε)
P{∥fℓ−f∥2>ε}<2 P{ρE22(Fℓ,F)>ε2γℓ}.P\{\|f_\ell - f\|^2 > \varepsilon\} < 2\,P\{\rho^2_{E_2}(F_\ell, F) > \tfrac{\varepsilon}{2}\gamma_\ell\}.P{∥fℓ​−f∥2>ε}<2P{ρE2​2​(Fℓ​,F)>2ε​γℓ​}.
  1. Theorem 7.5 (p. 251). For any ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and constants C1,C2>0C_1, C_2 > 0C1​,C2​>0 there is γ0>0\gamma_0 > 0γ0​>0 such that for any γℓ≤γ0\gamma_\ell \le \gamma_0γℓ​≤γ0​
P{ρE1(fℓ,f)>ε}≤P{ρE2(Fℓ,F)>C1γℓ}+P{∥Aℓ−A∥>C2γℓ}.(7.49)P\{\rho_{E_1}(f_\ell, f) > \varepsilon\} \le P\{\rho_{E_2}(F_\ell, F) > C_1\sqrt{\gamma_\ell}\} + P\{\|A_\ell - A\| > C_2\sqrt{\gamma_\ell}\}. \tag{7.49}P{ρE1​​(fℓ​,f)>ε}≤P{ρE2​​(Fℓ​,F)>C1​γℓ​​}+P{∥Aℓ​−A∥>C2​γℓ​​}.(7.49)

The constants are the book's: the rrr of (7.17), the γℓμ\sqrt{\gamma_\ell\mu}γℓ​μ​ of (7.21), the factor 222 and the threshold ε2γℓ\tfrac{\varepsilon}{2}\gamma_\ell2ε​γℓ​ of Theorem 7.4, and the C1γℓC_1\sqrt{\gamma_\ell}C1​γℓ​​, C2γℓC_2\sqrt{\gamma_\ell}C2​γℓ​​ of (7.49).

Significance

Theorem 7.1 is what makes regularization a method rather than a heuristic: it names the admissible parameter choices, γ(δ)→0\gamma(\delta) \to 0γ(δ)→0 no faster than δ2\delta^2δ2, under which the regularized solution recovers the true one. Theorems 7.3 and 7.4 turn it into probability statements. Combined with any rate of convergence of the empirical distribution function, they give consistency of density estimation by Method T, which is the Corollary on p. 239. Theorem 7.5 does the same when the operator itself is estimated from data, as in conditional probability estimation (§7.9). Chapter 7's SVM estimators of densities and conditional probabilities rest on these statements.

The results are classical and proved in the literature cited. None of them is machine-checked. The platform has Tikhonov-regularized dynamics (TikhonovHDD) and finite-dimensional ridge identities (RobustLS.Tikhonov), but not the convergence theory of Tikhonov's method for operator equations. A formalization supplies a reusable notion of regularization functional on a metric space, the Tikhonov functional over [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the operator distance (7.48), for later work on inverse problems and nonparametric estimation.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, inverting AAA and passing to the limit, fails because A−1A^{-1}A−1 is not continuous: ρE2(Afδ,F)→0\rho_{E_2}(Af_\delta, F) \to 0ρE2​​(Afδ​,F)→0 alone does not force fδ→ff_\delta \to ffδ​→f. The deterministic theorems need control of the regularized solutions that the residual does not give, and in Theorem 7.2 that control must be obtained without compact sublevel sets, since the balls of an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space are not compact. In the stochastic theorems the difficulty is uniformity: a deterministic convergence statement for each outcome does not give the explicit comparison of probabilities that (7.21) and (7.49) assert. In (7.49) the bound must hold for every parameter below a threshold that depends only on ε\varepsilonε, C1C_1C1​, C2C_2C2​.

Two warnings from reading the chapter apply. Theorem 7.4 as printed is false: with exact data (Fℓ=FF_\ell = FFℓ​=F) both probabilities vanish for all large ℓ\ellℓ, and the strict inequality 0<00 < 00<0 fails (finding F1). Also, the three "uniqueness" properties of Ω\OmegaΩ listed on p. 235 are mutually inconsistent at f=0f = 0f=0, which is why they are not assumed (finding F3).

Formalization scope

All statements live in NatureSLT.IllPosed. Ω\OmegaΩ takes values in ℝ≥0∞. The book's "positive" is nonnegativity and its domain F\mathcal FF is {Ω≠∞}\{\Omega \ne \infty\}{Ω=∞}. "Semicontinuous" is lower semicontinuity. The exact solution is assumed to lie in the domain of Ω\OmegaΩ (the book assumes this tacitly); otherwise every point could minimize WTW_TWT​. Every theorem is stated for every family of minimizers, given as a hypothesis, never for a chosen sequence, and does not assert that minimizers exist. Statements of the form "there exists a sequence that converges" are a trivializing formalization and are ruled out. The limit in (7.17) is read as a limsup in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and δ→0\delta \to 0δ→0 is taken along δ>0\delta > 0δ>0. Hilbert spaces are real. Linearity of AAA (Theorems 7.2 and 7.4) makes E2E_2E2​ a real normed space. In the stochastic theorems the probability space (S,P)(S, P)(S,P) is arbitrary, and the random elements FℓF_\ellFℓ​, fℓf_\ellfℓ​ (and in 7.5 the random distance ∥Aℓ−A∥\|A_\ell - A\|∥Aℓ​−A∥) are Borel measurable by hypothesis, so no event gets probability zero by convention. In (7.48) a point with Ω(f)=0\Omega(f) = 0Ω(f)=0 contributes 000 if Aℓf=AfA_\ell f = AfAℓ​f=Af and ∞\infty∞ otherwise. In Theorem 7.5, γ0\gamma_0γ0​ is quantified before the random data, so it is uniform over all of them.

Beyond the paper. One variant item is posed: [Corrected] Theorem 7.4, the same statement with ≤\le≤ in place of <<<. Its evidence is the exact-data counterexample above, which has been checked in Lean. The faithful Theorem 7.4 stays a milestone.

Not included: the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem in the book's in-probability form (the platform's GlivenkoCantelli.glivenko_cantelli is the almost-sure form), the Kolmogorov–Smirnov limit laws (7.10)–(7.11), and Theorem 7.6, whose notion of consistency is not pinned down on the page. Contributions welcome: compactness arguments in metric spaces, weak compactness and the Radon–Riesz property in Hilbert spaces, and measurability lemmas for minimizers.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000, Chapter 7. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • A. N. Tikhonov, "On solving ill-posed problem and method of regularization", Doklady Akademii Nauk USSR 153 (1963), 501–504 (as cited in Vapnik 2000; no stable link).
  • A. N. Tikhonov and V. Y. Arsenin, Solution of Ill-Posed Problems, W. H. Winston, Washington, DC, 1977 (no stable link).
  • V. N. Vapnik and A. R. Stefanyuk, "Nonparametric methods for estimating probability densities", Automation and Remote Control (8), 1978 (as cited in Vapnik 2000; no stable link).
  • A. R. Stefanyuk, 1986, cited in Vapnik 2000, p. 251, for Theorem 7.5; the book's bibliography gives no entry for it.
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998, which contains the proofs the 2000 book omits (no stable link).
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The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory VI: Kernels Generating Regularized Fourier ExpansionsTextbook

Motivation

A support vector machine never computes its feature map. It only evaluates a kernel K(x,y)K(x, y)K(x,y), the inner product of the feature vectors of xxx and yyy. When the features are the first NNN terms of an expansion, or infinitely many terms damped by regularizing weights, the learning algorithm is practical only if that inner product has a closed form. Chapter 6 of V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory (2nd ed., Springer 2000, doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1), §6.3–6.5, gives such closed forms for the kernels generating orthogonal-polynomial, spline and Fourier expansions. It also states Theorem 6.1, which lifts any one-dimensional kernel to nnn dimensions. The book prints these identities without proof and cites classical sources (Mikhlin 1964; Gradshtein and Ryzhik 1980). Several of them, as printed, are off by a constant factor, which a formal check settles.

Setting

Kernels in this mission are real functions of two real variables (or of two vectors of Rn\mathbb R^nRn) of the form K(x,y)=∑iri ψi(x) ψi(y)K(x, y) = \sum_i r_i\, \psi_i(x)\, \psi_i(y)K(x,y)=∑i​ri​ψi​(x)ψi​(y), a finite or convergent sum over basis functions ψi\psi_iψi​ with weights ri≥0r_i \ge 0ri​≥0.

  • Orthonormal polynomials. P1,P2,…P_1, P_2, \dotsP1​,P2​,… are real polynomials with deg⁡Pk=k−1\deg P_k = k - 1degPk​=k−1 that are orthonormal for a measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR with finite moments. Kn(x,y)=∑k=1nPk(x)Pk(y)K_n(x, y) = \sum_{k=1}^n P_k(x) P_k(y)Kn​(x,y)=∑k=1n​Pk​(x)Pk​(y) is the kernel of the first nnn of them.
  • Hermite. Pk(x)=(−1)kex2(d/dx)ke−x2P_k(x) = (-1)^k e^{x^2} (d/dx)^k e^{-x^2}Pk​(x)=(−1)kex2(d/dx)ke−x2, and Hk(x)=μkPk(x)e−x2H_k(x) = \mu_k P_k(x) e^{-x^2}Hk​(x)=μk​Pk​(x)e−x2 with normalization constants μk\mu_kμk​ (6.23). The regularized kernel is ∑i≥0qiHi(x)Hi(y)\sum_{i \ge 0} q^i H_i(x) H_i(y)∑i≥0​qiHi​(x)Hi​(y) with 0≤q<10 \le q < 10≤q<1.
  • Tensor products. Given coordinatewise basis functions bib_ibi​ on a set XXX, the nnn-dimensional basis is bi1…in(x)=bi1(x1)⋯bin(xn)b_{i_1 \dots i_n}(x) = b_{i_1}(x^1) \cdots b_{i_n}(x^n)bi1​…in​​(x)=bi1​​(x1)⋯bin​​(xn) (6.25).
  • Splines. The truncated power (x−t)+d(x - t)^d_+(x−t)+d​ is 000 for x≤tx \le tx≤t and (x−t)d(x - t)^d(x−t)d for x>tx > tx>t. The spline kernel with infinitely many nodes on (0,a)(0, a)(0,a) is ∫0a(xj−t)+d(xi−t)+d dt+∑r=0dxjrxir\int_0^a (x_j - t)^d_+ (x_i - t)^d_+\, dt + \sum_{r=0}^d x_j^r x_i^r∫0a​(xj​−t)+d​(xi​−t)+d​dt+∑r=0d​xjr​xir​ for xj,xi∈[0,a]x_j, x_i \in [0, a]xj​,xi​∈[0,a].
  • Fourier. KN(x,xi)=12+∑k=1N(sin⁡kxsin⁡kxi+cos⁡kxcos⁡kxi)K_N(x, x_i) = \tfrac12 + \sum_{k=1}^N (\sin kx \sin kx_i + \cos kx \cos kx_i)KN​(x,xi​)=21​+∑k=1N​(sinkxsinkxi​+coskxcoskxi​) is the kernel of the trigonometric polynomials of degree NNN. Its regularized versions damp the kkk-th harmonic by qkq^kqk (0<q<10 < q < 10<q<1) or by 1/(1+γ2k2)1/(1 + \gamma^2 k^2)1/(1+γ2k2) (γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0).

Formalization targets

Goal: Eq. (6.33)

For γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0 and real xi,xjx_i, x_jxi​,xj​ with 0≤∣xi−xj∣≤2π0 \le |x_i - x_j| \le 2\pi0≤∣xi​−xj​∣≤2π, the series converges and

12+∑k=1∞cos⁡kxicos⁡kxj+sin⁡kxisin⁡kxj1+γ2k2=π2γ cosh⁡π−∣xi−xj∣γsinh⁡πγ.\frac12 + \sum_{k=1}^{\infty} \frac{\cos kx_i \cos kx_j + \sin kx_i \sin kx_j}{1 + \gamma^2 k^2} = \frac{\pi}{2\gamma}\, \frac{\cosh\frac{\pi - |x_i - x_j|}{\gamma}}{\sinh\frac{\pi}{\gamma}} .21​+k=1∑∞​1+γ2k2coskxi​coskxj​+sinkxi​sinkxj​​=2γπ​sinhγπ​coshγπ−∣xi​−xj​∣​​.

The only numbered theorem of the section, Theorem 6.1, is close to an unfolding of the definitions. The goal is therefore the deepest identity of the section that is correct as printed.

Milestones

  1. (6.21), Christoffel–Darboux. There is a constant ana_nan​ such that Kn(x,y)=anPn+1(x)Pn(y)−Pn(x)Pn+1(y)x−yK_n(x, y) = a_n \frac{P_{n+1}(x)P_n(y) - P_n(x)P_{n+1}(y)}{x - y}Kn​(x,y)=an​x−yPn+1​(x)Pn​(y)−Pn​(x)Pn+1​(y)​ for x≠yx \ne yx=y and Kn(x,x)=an[Pn+1′(x)Pn(x)−Pn′(x)Pn+1(x)]K_n(x, x) = a_n[P'_{n+1}(x)P_n(x) - P'_n(x)P_{n+1}(x)]Kn​(x,x)=an​[Pn+1′​(x)Pn​(x)−Pn′​(x)Pn+1​(x)].
  2. (6.24), Hermite kernel. For some constants μk\mu_kμk​: ∑i≥0qiHi(x)Hi(y)=1π(1−q2)exp⁡{2xyq1+q−(x−y)2q21−q2}\sum_{i \ge 0} q^i H_i(x)H_i(y) = \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi(1-q^2)}} \exp\{\frac{2xyq}{1+q} - \frac{(x-y)^2q^2}{1-q^2}\}∑i≥0​qiHi​(x)Hi​(y)=π(1−q2)​1​exp{1+q2xyq​−1−q2(x−y)2q2​} for all 0≤q<10 \le q < 10≤q<1 and real x,yx, yx,y.
  3. Theorem 6.1. ∑(i1,…,in)bi1…in(x) bi1…in(y)=∏k=1n∑ibi(xk)bi(yk)\sum_{(i_1, \dots, i_n)} b_{i_1 \dots i_n}(x)\, b_{i_1 \dots i_n}(y) = \prod_{k=1}^n \sum_i b_i(x^k) b_i(y^k)∑(i1​,…,in​)​bi1​…in​​(x)bi1​…in​​(y)=∏k=1n​∑i​bi​(xk)bi​(yk), for finite bases or bases whose one-dimensional kernel converges.
  4. (6.26). ∏i=1n1π(1−q2)exp⁡{⋯ }=1(1−q2)n/2exp⁡{2(x∗y)q1+q−∣x−y∣2q21−q2}\prod_{i=1}^n \frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi(1-q^2)}} \exp\{\cdots\} = \frac{1}{(1-q^2)^{n/2}} \exp\{\frac{2(x*y)q}{1+q} - \frac{|x-y|^2q^2}{1-q^2}\}∏i=1n​π(1−q2)​1​exp{⋯}=(1−q2)n/21​exp{1+q2(x∗y)q​−1−q2∣x−y∣2q2​}.
  5. (6.30), splines. For d≥0d \ge 0d≥0, the spline kernel equals ∑r=0dCdr2d−r+1(xj∧xi)2d−r+1∣xj−xi∣r+∑r=0dxjrxir\sum_{r=0}^d \frac{C_d^r}{2d - r + 1} (x_j \wedge x_i)^{2d-r+1} |x_j - x_i|^r + \sum_{r=0}^d x_j^r x_i^r∑r=0d​2d−r+1Cdr​​(xj​∧xi​)2d−r+1∣xj​−xi​∣r+∑r=0d​xjr​xir​. For d=1d = 1d=1 this is 1+xjxi+12∣xj−xi∣(xj∧xi)2+(xj∧xi)3/31 + x_jx_i + \frac12|x_j - x_i|(x_j \wedge x_i)^2 + (x_j \wedge x_i)^3/31+xj​xi​+21​∣xj​−xi​∣(xj​∧xi​)2+(xj​∧xi​)3/3.
  6. Dirichlet kernel (p. 197). KN(x,xi)=12+∑k=1Ncos⁡k(x−xi)=sin⁡(2N+1)(x−xi)2/sin⁡x−xi2K_N(x, x_i) = \frac12 + \sum_{k=1}^N \cos k(x - x_i) = \sin\frac{(2N+1)(x - x_i)}{2} \big/ \sin\frac{x - x_i}{2}KN​(x,xi​)=21​+∑k=1N​cosk(x−xi​)=sin2(2N+1)(x−xi​)​/sin2x−xi​​ for x−xi∉2πZx - x_i \notin 2\pi\mathbb Zx−xi​∈/2πZ.
  7. (6.32), Poisson kernel. For 0<q<10 < q < 10<q<1: 12+∑k≥1qkcos⁡k(xi−xj)=1−q22(1−2qcos⁡(xi−xj)+q2)\frac12 + \sum_{k \ge 1} q^k \cos k(x_i - x_j) = \frac{1 - q^2}{2(1 - 2q\cos(x_i - x_j) + q^2)}21​+∑k≥1​qkcosk(xi​−xj​)=2(1−2qcos(xi​−xj​)+q2)1−q2​.

Milestones 2, 4 and 6 are stated exactly as printed and are believed false (see Formalization scope). A disproof of each is a complete answer.

Significance

The result itself. Each closed form replaces an infinite or high-dimensional inner product by a constant number of elementary operations. That is what makes the regularized Fourier, Hermite and spline kernels usable in an SVM. Theorem 6.1 is the mechanism by which every multidimensional kernel of Chapter 6 is obtained from a one-dimensional one. The constants matter in practice. A wrong prefactor rescales the kernel matrix, and so the effective regularization of the SVM solution.

Formalizing it. The identities themselves are classical (Christoffel 1858, Darboux 1878, Mehler 1866, and the Fourier series of cosh⁡\coshcosh on [0,2π][0, 2\pi][0,2π]). As far as a search of the platform shows, none is stated on Prove2Me in these forms. SpikedWishart.Separated.eq_299 (Open) is one Christoffel–Darboux instance for a specific Hermite family. AronszajnRK.Product.direct_product_kernel concerns reproducing-kernel Hilbert spaces, not finite or summable feature sums. The mission produces machine-checked versions of the book's catalogue, together with a formal verdict on the three displays that are off by a constant.

Difficulty

The goal and (6.32) are infinite-series identities with no ready-made counterpart in the library, and the goal holds only on ∣xi−xj∣≤2π|x_i - x_j| \le 2\pi∣xi​−xj​∣≤2π. Outside that range the left side is 2π2\pi2π-periodic and the right side is not, so no argument that ignores the range can succeed. The Christoffel–Darboux formula needs a theory of orthogonal polynomials for a general measure, which Mathlib does not yet provide. (6.24) involves the iterated derivatives of e−x2e^{-x^2}e−x2 and a doubly infinite parameter family. The spline identity requires evaluating a piecewise-polynomial integral exactly. Theorem 6.1 for infinite bases requires summability over a product index set ιn\iota^nιn. The three false displays (2, 4, 6) hide their error in a constant factor. Two of them still reduce to an identity a solver may expect to hold.

Formalization scope

Everything is over R\mathbb RR. Series are stated with HasSum, or as Summable together with an equation for tsum. A divergent series therefore never reads as 000. Sums over k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 are written over k∈Nk \in \mathbb Nk∈N with k+1k + 1k+1 in place of kkk. The Christoffel–Darboux polynomials are indexed as in the book (P1P_1P1​ is the constant), they are orthonormal up to Pn+1P_{n+1}Pn+1​, and the measure has all moments finite. The Hermite PkP_kPk​ is the physicists' family, defined through iteratedDeriv. It is not Mathlib's probabilists' Polynomial.hermite. The normalization constants of (6.24) are existentially quantified, since the book does not give them. The range of qqq in (6.24) and (6.26) is 0≤q<10 \le q < 10≤q<1: the book's 0≤q≤10 \le q \le 10≤q≤1 without the singular point q=1q = 1q=1. The Dirichlet display is stated where sin⁡x−xi2≠0\sin\frac{x - x_i}{2} \ne 0sin2x−xi​​=0. The goal adds γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, which the page leaves unstated. Spline points lie in [0,a][0, a][0,a] with a>0a > 0a>0. In Theorem 6.1, the multidimensional kernel is the sum over multi-indices of products of basis functions, a statement to be proved and not the product of kernels by definition. A formalization that defined the nnn-dimensional kernel as ∏kK(xk,yk)\prod_k K(x^k, y^k)∏k​K(xk,yk) would make the theorem trivial, and is ruled out.

Beyond the paper. Three corrected variants sit beside the faithful statements. Each changes one clause only. dirichlet_kernel_corrected (finding F1) uses the denominator 2sin⁡x−xi22\sin\frac{x - x_i}{2}2sin2x−xi​​, since at N=0N = 0N=0 and x−xi=πx - x_i = \pix−xi​=π the printed display reads 12=1\frac12 = 121​=1. hermite_kernel_corrected (F2) takes Hk=μkPkH_k = \mu_k P_kHk​=μk​Pk​ without the Gaussian factor. At q=0q = 0q=0 the printed (6.24) forces μ02e−x2−y2=π−1/2\mu_0^2 e^{-x^2-y^2} = \pi^{-1/2}μ02​e−x2−y2=π−1/2 for all x,yx, yx,y, and the corrected form is Mehler's formula. hermite_kernel_multidim_corrected (F3) uses the prefactor (π(1−q2))−n/2(\pi(1 - q^2))^{-n/2}(π(1−q2))−n/2, since at n=1n = 1n=1, x=y=0x = y = 0x=y=0, q=0q = 0q=0 the printed (6.26) reads π−1/2=1\pi^{-1/2} = 1π−1/2=1. One further observation is recorded without a variant: (6.33) also holds for γ<0\gamma < 0γ<0, because both sides are even in γ\gammaγ.

Reusable beyond this mission are the two definitions (the physicists' Hermite functions and the truncated power) and any proof of the summable form of Theorem 6.1. Proofs, disproofs of the three false milestones, and general lemmas on Fourier series of cosh⁡\coshcosh and qkcos⁡kθq^k\cos k\thetaqkcoskθ are all welcome.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • I. S. Gradshteyn and I. M. Ryzhik, Table of Integrals, Series, and Products, Academic Press, 1980 (7th ed. 2007). doi:10.1016/C2009-0-22516-5
  • G. Szegő, Orthogonal Polynomials, AMS Colloquium Publications 23, 1939 (Christoffel–Darboux formula, §3.2). doi:10.1090/coll/023
  • F. G. Mehler, Ueber die Entwicklung einer Function von beliebig vielen Variablen nach Laplaceschen Functionen höherer Ordnung, J. reine angew. Math. 66 (1866), 161–176. doi:10.1515/crll.1866.66.161
  • S. G. Mikhlin, Variational Methods in Mathematical Physics, Pergamon, 1964.
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The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory V: The VC Dimension of Δ-Margin Separating HyperplanesTextbook

Motivation

A separating hyperplane in Rn\mathbb R^nRn is a classifier of VC dimension n+1n + 1n+1, so a bound on its generalization error that goes through the VC dimension degrades with the dimension of the space. Support vector machines construct hyperplanes in feature spaces of enormous dimension and still generalize. Chapter 5 of V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory (2nd ed., Springer 2000, doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1) explains this by a different capacity measure. When a hyperplane is required to separate the data with a margin Δ\DeltaΔ, and the data lie in a ball of radius RRR, the VC dimension is bounded by roughly R2/Δ2R^2/\Delta^2R2/Δ2, independently of nnn.

Timeline. The optimal (maximal margin) hyperplane goes back to Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1965, 1974). Its use with kernels, in place of an explicit feature space, is due to Boser, Guyon and Vapnik (COLT 1992), and the soft-margin support vector machine to Cortes and Vapnik (Machine Learning 20 (1995)). The margin bound appears as Theorem 5.1 of the book, which prints no proofs (Preface, p. xi). In Burges's tutorial (Data Min. Knowl. Disc. 2 (1998)) the bound for "gap tolerant classifiers" carries a ceiling, min⁡(⌈D2/M2⌉,d)+1\min(\lceil D^2/M^2\rceil, d) + 1min(⌈D2/M2⌉,d)+1.

Setting

Vectors live in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean inner product (w⋅x)(w \cdot x)(w⋅x). A Δ\DeltaΔ-margin separating hyperplane is a hyperplane (w∗⋅x)−b=0(w^* \cdot x) - b = 0(w∗⋅x)−b=0 with ∣w∗∣=1|w^*| = 1∣w∗∣=1 and b∈Rb \in \mathbb Rb∈R. It classifies xxx as y=1y = 1y=1 if (w∗⋅x)−b≥Δ(w^* \cdot x) - b \ge \Delta(w∗⋅x)−b≥Δ and as y=−1y = -1y=−1 if (w∗⋅x)−b≤−Δ(w^* \cdot x) - b \le -\Delta(w∗⋅x)−b≤−Δ; vectors in the strip ∣(w∗⋅x)−b∣<Δ|(w^* \cdot x) - b| < \Delta∣(w∗⋅x)−b∣<Δ get no label (§5.4.2, p. 132). Vectors x1,…,xhx_1, \dots, x_hx1​,…,xh​ are shattered by these hyperplanes if each of the 2h2^h2h labelings y1,…,yh∈{1,−1}y_1, \dots, y_h \in \{1, -1\}y1​,…,yh​∈{1,−1} is realized by one hyperplane that classifies every xix_ixi​ with label yiy_iyi​. The VC dimension on a set XXX is the largest hhh for which some x1,…,xh∈Xx_1, \dots, x_h \in Xx1​,…,xh​∈X are shattered, or ∞\infty∞. In Lean these are MarginClassifies, MarginShatters and marginVCDim in NatureSLT.Margin.

For training data (x1,y1),…,(xℓ,yℓ)(x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_\ell, y_\ell)(x1​,y1​),…,(xℓ​,yℓ​) with yi∈{+1,−1}y_i \in \{+1, -1\}yi​∈{+1,−1}, a hyperplane (w⋅x)−b=0(w \cdot x) - b = 0(w⋅x)−b=0 is in canonical form if yi[(w⋅xi)−b]≥1y_i[(w \cdot x_i) - b] \ge 1yi​[(w⋅xi​)−b]≥1 for all iii (5.8). The optimal hyperplane (w0,b0)(w_0, b_0)(w0​,b0​) satisfies (5.8) and minimizes Φ(w)=∥w∥2\Phi(w) = \|w\|^2Φ(w)=∥w∥2 over www and bbb (5.9). Its support vectors are the xix_ixi​ with equality in (5.8). The dual functional is W(α)=∑iαi−12∑i,jαiαjyiyj(xi⋅xj)W(\alpha) = \sum_i \alpha_i - \frac12\sum_{i,j}\alpha_i\alpha_j y_i y_j (x_i \cdot x_j)W(α)=∑i​αi​−21​∑i,j​αi​αj​yi​yj​(xi​⋅xj​) (5.17). In Lean: IsCanonicalSeparating, IsOptimalHyperplane, supportVectors and dualW.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (pp. 132–133)

If every x∈Xx \in Xx∈X lies in a sphere (closed ball) of radius R>0R > 0R>0 and Δ>0\Delta > 0Δ>0, then

h≤min⁡([R2Δ2],n)+1,h \le \min\left(\left[\frac{R^2}{\Delta^2}\right], n\right) + 1,h≤min([Δ2R2​],n)+1,

with [⋅][\cdot][⋅] the integer part. As printed this is false (see Beyond the paper), and a disproof of the goal is a legitimate outcome of the mission.

Milestones

  1. §5.4.1, (5.8)–(5.9): the canonical hyperplane minimizing ∥w∥2\|w\|^2∥w∥2 separates the data without error with maximal distance from the closest vector. Conversely, a maximal-margin hyperplane, rescaled to canonical form, minimizes ∥w∥2\|w\|^2∥w∥2.
  2. §5.4.2: the optimal hyperplane, normalized to ∣w∗∣=1|w^*| = 1∣w∗∣=1, is a Δ\DeltaΔ-margin separating hyperplane with Δ=1/∣w0∣\Delta = 1/|w_0|Δ=1/∣w0​∣.
  3. (5.13)–(5.16): a hyperplane satisfying (5.11) is optimal if and only if there are αi0≥0\alpha^0_i \ge 0αi0​≥0 with ∑iαi0yi=0\sum_i \alpha^0_i y_i = 0∑i​αi0​yi​=0, w0=∑iyiαi0xiw_0 = \sum_i y_i \alpha^0_i x_iw0​=∑i​yi​αi0​xi​ (a sum over support vectors only), and αi0{[(xi⋅w0)−b0]yi−1}=0\alpha^0_i\{[(x_i \cdot w_0) - b_0]y_i - 1\} = 0αi0​{[(xi​⋅w0​)−b0​]yi​−1}=0.
  4. Display after (5.19): for a solution α0\alpha_0α0​ of the dual problem, ∣w0∣2=2W(α0)=∑support vectorsαi0αj0(xi⋅xj)yiyj|w_0|^2 = 2W(\alpha_0) = \sum_{\text{support vectors}} \alpha^0_i\alpha^0_j (x_i \cdot x_j) y_i y_j∣w0​∣2=2W(α0​)=∑support vectors​αi0​αj0​(xi​⋅xj​)yi​yj​.
  5. Theorem 5.3 (Mercer): a symmetric K∈L2K \in L_2K∈L2​ has an expansion K(u,v)=∑kakψk(u)ψk(v)K(u, v) = \sum_k a_k \psi_k(u)\psi_k(v)K(u,v)=∑k​ak​ψk​(u)ψk​(v) with ak>0a_k > 0ak​>0 if and only if ∬K(u,v)g(u)g(v) du dv>0\iint K(u, v) g(u) g(v)\, du\, dv > 0∬K(u,v)g(u)g(v)dudv>0 for all g≠0g \ne 0g=0 in L2L_2L2​.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 is the reason the book gives for the generalization of the optimal hyperplane in high-dimensional feature spaces (§5.6.1). With the bound (3.24) it drives the Corollary on p. 133 and the choice of Δ\DeltaΔ in structural risk minimization. Milestones 1–4 are the convex-optimization facts on which the construction of the support vector machine rests: margin maximization as a quadratic program, its Kühn–Tucker characterization and the dual problem. Milestone 5 is the condition under which a kernel can replace the feature-space inner product.

On the platform, UnderstandingML.hard_svm_max_margin (the analogue of milestone 1 with the convention +b+b+b) and UnderstandingML.support_vectors (the bias-free Hard-SVM) are proved. UnderstandingML.kernel_iff_posSemidef characterizes kernels by positive semidefinite Gram matrices, and HighDimStat.Rkhs.thm12_20_mercer_v2 (open) is the eigen-expansion of a continuous kernel on a compact space. There is no margin-dependent VC dimension bound; the BartlettNN.Margin.* results bound fat-shattering dimensions of real-valued classes. The mission adds the book's bias-carrying statements, the first formal Δ-margin VC bound, and machine-checked settlements of the misprinted statements.

Difficulty

The dimension part of the bound, h≤n+1h \le n + 1h≤n+1, is the classical VC dimension of affine half-spaces; the content is the radius part. A solver has to control how far apart the two classes of an arbitrary dichotomy of hhh points in a ball can be pushed by a unit-normal hyperplane with a free bias. The bias does not cancel for unbalanced dichotomies, and this is exactly where the printed integer part and the correct bound part ways. The Kühn–Tucker milestone requires optimality conditions for a convex quadratic program with linear inequality constraints. The Mercer milestone requires the spectral theory of Hilbert–Schmidt integral operators on L2L_2L2​ of a set of positive Lebesgue measure. Neither is packaged in Mathlib in this form.

Formalization scope

Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); training data are indexed by Fin ℓ; labels are real numbers with yi∈{+1,−1}y_i \in \{+1, -1\}yi​∈{+1,−1} as a hypothesis, and both classes present, the setting of §5.5. In the shattering definition, labels are booleans. "Sphere of radius RRR" is a closed ball about an arbitrary center; R>0R > 0R>0 and Δ>0\Delta > 0Δ>0 are hypotheses. The VC dimension takes values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}, so an unbounded family is ∞\infty∞, never a junk value. Shattering requires every point to be classified with its margin: a definition that let points fall into the strip would make the bound trivial, and is ruled out. Optimality is a predicate on a given pair (w0,b0)(w_0, b_0)(w0​,b0​); no item asserts that an optimum exists. The typo "Δ=1/∣w∗∣\Delta = 1/|w^*|Δ=1/∣w∗∣" of §5.4.2 is read as 1/∣w0∣1/|w_0|1/∣w0​∣. The Mercer items take U⊆RdU \subseteq \mathbb R^dU⊆Rd (d≥1d \ge 1d≥1) measurable of positive Lebesgue measure, with ψk\psi_kψk​ orthonormal in L2(U)L_2(U)L2​(U) and the expansion converging in L2(U×U)L_2(U \times U)L2​(U×U).

Not drafted: the Corollary on p. 133 and Theorem 5.2 (p. 139). Both are probabilistic, and their hypotheses (what the VC dimension of a set of partial classifiers means inside (3.24), the training-set size in the leave-one-out argument) are not pinned down on the page.

Beyond the paper. Two [Corrected] variants are posed beside the faithful items. (1) Theorem 5.1 with the ceiling ⌈R2/Δ2⌉\lceil R^2/\Delta^2\rceil⌈R2/Δ2⌉: the vertices of an equilateral triangle inscribed in the unit circle of R2\mathbb R^2R2 are shattered with Δ=3/4\Delta = 3/4Δ=3/4, while min⁡([16/9],2)+1=2\min([16/9], 2) + 1 = 2min([16/9],2)+1=2, a counterexample to the printed bound that has been checked in Lean. (2) Mercer's theorem with ≥0\ge 0≥0 in the condition and the coefficients: a kernel ∑k2−kψk(u)ψk(v)\sum_k 2^{-k}\psi_k(u)\psi_k(v)∑k​2−kψk​(u)ψk​(v) over the incomplete system 2sin⁡(2πku)\sqrt2\sin(2\pi k u)2​sin(2πku) on [0,1][0,1][0,1] has positive coefficients, yet ∬Kgg=0\iint Kgg = 0∬Kgg=0 for g≡1g \equiv 1g≡1.

Contributions welcome: a convex-quadratic-programming KKT library for finitely many linear constraints; integral operators with L2L_2L2​ kernels and their spectral expansion; disproofs of the faithful Theorem 5.1 and Theorem 5.3.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998. ISBN 978-0-471-03003-4.
  • B. E. Boser, I. M. Guyon, V. N. Vapnik, A training algorithm for optimal margin classifiers, COLT 1992. doi:10.1145/130385.130401
  • C. Cortes, V. Vapnik, Support-vector networks, Machine Learning 20, 1995. doi:10.1007/BF00994018
  • C. J. C. Burges, A tutorial on support vector machines for pattern recognition, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 2, 1998. doi:10.1023/A:1009715923555
  • J. Mercer, Functions of positive and negative type, and their connection with the theory of integral equations, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 209, 1909. doi:10.1098/rsta.1909.0016
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: Shuze Chen

The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory IV: The Asymptotic Rate of Structural Risk MinimizationTextbook

Motivation

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) chooses, from a fixed set of functions, the one with the smallest average loss on the training sample. Its risk is controlled by bounds whose confidence term grows with the VC dimension of the set and shrinks with the sample size ℓ\ellℓ. When the ratio ℓ/h\ell/hℓ/h is small, a fixed set is either too poor to approximate the target or too rich to be estimated reliably. The structural risk minimization (SRM) principle of Vapnik and Chervonenkis (1974) resolves this by nesting sets of growing capacity and choosing, as a function of the sample size, the element in which to minimize the empirical risk. It is the conceptual ancestor of model selection by complexity penalties, of support vector machines' margin control, and of the minimum description length principle.

Chapter 4 of Vapnik's The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory (2nd ed., Springer 2000, doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1) states the asymptotic rate of SRM (Theorem 4.1) together with the two finite-sample risk bounds it rests on, (4.1) and (4.2), and the finite-class bound (4.25) from which the book derives its minimum description length bound. The book prints no proofs; the standard ones are in Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory (Wiley 1998), and Vapnik–Chervonenkis, Theory of Pattern Recognition (1974).

Setting

Let FFF be a probability measure on a set ZZZ and Q(z,α)Q(z, \alpha)Q(z,α), α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, a set of nonnegative measurable functions indexed by an arbitrary set Λ\LambdaΛ. The risk is R(α)=∫Q(z,α) dF(z)R(\alpha) = \int Q(z,\alpha)\,dF(z)R(α)=∫Q(z,α)dF(z) and the empirical risk on an i.i.d. sample z1,…,zℓz_1, \dots, z_\ellz1​,…,zℓ​ is Remp(α)=1ℓ∑i=1ℓQ(zi,α)R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha) = \frac1\ell \sum_{i=1}^\ell Q(z_i, \alpha)Remp​(α)=ℓ1​∑i=1ℓ​Q(zi​,α).

The VC dimension of a set of real functions A≤Q≤BA \le Q \le BA≤Q≤B is the largest number of points shattered by the indicators θ{Q(z,α)−β}\theta\{Q(z,\alpha) - \beta\}θ{Q(z,α)−β}, α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, β∈(A,B)\beta \in (A, B)β∈(A,B), where θ(u)=1\theta(u) = 1θ(u)=1 for u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 and 000 otherwise (§3.6). In Lean: NatureSLT.SRM.vcDimReal Q A B : ℕ∞.

A structure is a sequence of nested nonempty subsets Sk={Q(z,α),α∈Λk}S_k = \{Q(z,\alpha), \alpha \in \Lambda_k\}Sk​={Q(z,α),α∈Λk​}, S1⊂S2⊂⋯S_1 \subset S_2 \subset \cdotsS1​⊂S2​⊂⋯ (4.3). It is admissible if each SkS_kSk​ has finite VC dimension hkh_khk​ and either (i) 0≤Q≤Bk0 \le Q \le B_k0≤Q≤Bk​ on SkS_kSk​, or (ii) sup⁡α∈Λk(∫Qp dF)1/p/∫Q dF≤τk\sup_{\alpha \in \Lambda_k} (\int Q^p\,dF)^{1/p} / \int Q\,dF \le \tau_ksupα∈Λk​​(∫QpdF)1/p/∫QdF≤τk​ for some p>2p > 2p>2 (4.4). Write Tk=BkT_k = B_kTk​=Bk​ in case (i) and Tk=τkT_k = \tau_kTk​=τk​ in case (ii). The union S∗=⋃kSkS^* = \bigcup_k S_kS∗=⋃k​Sk​ is assumed dense in SSS for the metric ρ(Q1,Q2)=∫∣Q1−Q2∣ dF\rho(Q_1, Q_2) = \int |Q_1 - Q_2|\,dFρ(Q1​,Q2​)=∫∣Q1​−Q2​∣dF.

A law n=n(ℓ)n = n(\ell)n=n(ℓ) (4.5) chooses an element, and αℓn(ℓ)\alpha^{n(\ell)}_\ellαℓn(ℓ)​ minimizes RempR_{\mathrm{emp}}Remp​ over Λn(ℓ)\Lambda_{n(\ell)}Λn(ℓ)​. The rate of approximation is rn=inf⁡ΛnR−inf⁡ΛRr_n = \inf_{\Lambda_n} R - \inf_\Lambda Rrn​=infΛn​​R−infΛ​R (4.8).

Following footnote 3 (p. 97), random variables ξℓ\xi_\ellξℓ​ converge to ξ0\xi_0ξ0​ with asymptotic rate V(ℓ)V(\ell)V(ℓ) if, for some constant CCC, V−1(ℓ)∣ξℓ−ξ0∣→CV^{-1}(\ell)|\xi_\ell - \xi_0| \to CV−1(ℓ)∣ξℓ​−ξ0​∣→C in probability. In Lean: NatureSLT.SRM.ConvergesWithRate.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (pp. 97–98)

If the law satisfies

lim⁡ℓ→∞Tn(ℓ)2 hn(ℓ)ln⁡ℓℓ=0(4.7),\lim_{\ell\to\infty} \frac{T^2_{n(\ell)}\, h_{n(\ell)} \ln \ell}{\ell} = 0 \qquad (4.7),ℓ→∞lim​ℓTn(ℓ)2​hn(ℓ)​lnℓ​=0(4.7),

then R(αℓn(ℓ))R(\alpha^{n(\ell)}_\ell)R(αℓn(ℓ)​) converges in probability to R(α0)=inf⁡α∈ΛR(α)R(\alpha_0) = \inf_{\alpha \in \Lambda} R(\alpha)R(α0​)=infα∈Λ​R(α) with asymptotic rate

V(ℓ)=rn(ℓ)+Tn(ℓ)hn(ℓ)ln⁡ℓℓ(4.6).V(\ell) = r_{n(\ell)} + T_{n(\ell)} \sqrt{\frac{h_{n(\ell)} \ln \ell}{\ell}} \qquad (4.6).V(ℓ)=rn(ℓ)​+Tn(ℓ)​ℓhn(ℓ)​lnℓ​​(4.6).

This is NatureSLT.SRM.theorem_4_1, stated as printed. Finding F1 shows that as printed it is false: a law that keeps returning to a small element satisfies (4.7) while the risks oscillate. Finding F4 shows that the footnote-3 notion of rate can fail even when n(ℓ)→∞n(\ell) \to \inftyn(ℓ)→∞. A disproof of the goal is therefore a legitimate outcome.

Milestones

  • (4.1) For an infinite set of functions 0≤Q≤B0 \le Q \le B0≤Q≤B with VC dimension hhh, 1≤h≤2ℓ1 \le h \le 2\ell1≤h≤2ℓ, and E=4 (h(ln⁡(2ℓ/h)+1)−ln⁡(η/4))/ℓ\mathcal E = 4\,(h(\ln(2\ell/h) + 1) - \ln(\eta/4))/\ellE=4(h(ln(2ℓ/h)+1)−ln(η/4))/ℓ, with probability at least 1−η1 - \eta1−η, for all α\alphaα:
R(α)≤Remp(α)+BE2(1+1+4Remp(α)BE).R(\alpha) \le R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha) + \frac{B\mathcal E}{2}\left(1 + \sqrt{1 + \frac{4 R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha)}{B \mathcal E}}\right).R(α)≤Remp​(α)+2BE​(1+1+BE4Remp​(α)​​).
  • (4.2) For an infinite set of nonnegative functions QQQ with (∫Qp)1/p≤τ∫Q(\int Q^p)^{1/p} \le \tau \int Q(∫Qp)1/p≤τ∫Q, p>2p > 2p>2, the same E\mathcal EE and a(p)=12((p−1)/(p−2))p−1pa(p) = \sqrt[p]{\tfrac12 ((p-1)/(p-2))^{p-1}}a(p)=p21​((p−1)/(p−2))p−1​, with probability at least 1−η1 - \eta1−η, for all α\alphaα:
R(α)≤Remp(α)(1−a(p)τE)+.R(\alpha) \le \frac{R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha)}{\left(1 - a(p)\tau\sqrt{\mathcal E}\right)_+}.R(α)≤(1−a(p)τE​)+​Remp​(α)​.
  • (4.25) For NNN indicator functions, with probability at least 1−η1 - \eta1−η, for all α\alphaα:
R(α)≤Remp(α)+ln⁡N−ln⁡ηℓ(1+1+2Remp(α) ℓln⁡N−ln⁡η).R(\alpha) \le R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha) + \frac{\ln N - \ln \eta}{\ell}\left(1 + \sqrt{1 + \frac{2 R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha)\,\ell}{\ln N - \ln \eta}}\right).R(α)≤Remp​(α)+ℓlnN−lnη​(1+1+lnN−lnη2Remp​(α)ℓ​​).

Every constant is the book's: the 444 and ln⁡(η/4)\ln(\eta/4)ln(η/4) of E\mathcal EE, the BE/2B\mathcal E/2BE/2 and the 444 under the root in (4.1), a(p)a(p)a(p) in (4.2), and the 222 under the root in (4.25).

Significance

Theorem 4.1 is the book's asymptotic statement that SRM is consistent and adapts to the target. The rate is the sum of an approximation term and an estimation term, so a priori knowledge of the approximation rate rnr_nrn​ yields the best law n(ℓ)n(\ell)n(ℓ), as in the Example (4.9) on p. 98, where rn=n−cr_n = n^{-c}rn​=n−c gives the rate (ln⁡ℓ/ℓ)c/(2c+1)(\ln \ell/\ell)^{c/(2c+1)}(lnℓ/ℓ)c/(2c+1). The bounds (4.1) and (4.2) are the finite-sample inequalities SRM minimizes in practice, for bounded and for heavy-but-not-too-heavy-tailed losses. (4.25) is the starting point of the book's comparison of SRM with the minimum description length principle (Theorem 4.3).

The platform holds related but different statements: UnderstandingML.srm_bound and UnderstandingML.srm_nonuniform_rate (SRM as nonuniform learning over a countable union with weights), UnderstandingML.mdl_bound (a prefix-free description-length bound with other constants), and FoundationsML.ModelSelection.srm_learning_guarantee_v2 (Open, Mohri et al.'s form). None states the asymptotic rate of Theorem 4.1 or the relative-deviation bounds (4.1), (4.2), (4.25) in the book's form. As far as is known, none of the four statements of this mission has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The goal combines three things that each fail in a naive treatment. First, the uniform bound must be applied to a different class Sn(ℓ)S_{n(\ell)}Sn(ℓ)​ at every sample size, so its constants must be uniform in the element. Second, the approximation term rn(ℓ)r_{n(\ell)}rn(ℓ)​ tends to 000 only if n(ℓ)→∞n(\ell) \to \inftyn(ℓ)→∞, which (4.7) does not imply; a proof that assumes it proves a different theorem. Third, the footnote-3 rate is a statement about the limit of a normalized error, not a bound on it, so an OPO_POP​ bound alone does not establish it.

For (4.1) and (4.2), the step from a VC dimension to a bound with these exact constants goes through the relative-deviation inequality with the annealed entropy at 2ℓ2\ell2ℓ and the bound on the growth function in terms of hhh. For (4.25) the obstacle is the relative (not additive) form: Hoeffding's inequality gives the wrong shape and does not suffice.

Formalization scope

Samples are functions {0,…,ℓ−1}→Z\{0, \dots, \ell-1\} \to Z{0,…,ℓ−1}→Z under the product measure FℓF^\ellFℓ (Measure.pi). Λ\LambdaΛ is a type, the structure is Λs : ℕ → Set Λ (monotone, every element nonempty, indexed from 000), and hk∈Nh_k \in \mathbb Nhk​∈N, Tk∈RT_k \in \mathbb RTk​∈R are given sequences tied to the structure by the two admissibility cases. The empirical minimizer is a given map from samples to Λn(ℓ)\Lambda_{n(\ell)}Λn(ℓ)​, and its existence is not claimed. Measurability is explicit throughout. Each Q(⋅,α)Q(\cdot,\alpha)Q(⋅,α) is measurable and integrable, and the risk of the minimizer is a measurable function of the sample. In (4.1) and (4.2), the event "the bound holds for all α\alphaα" is assumed measurable. The ratio in (4.4) and (3.19) is multiplied out, with QpQ^pQp assumed integrable. Infima are over nonempty sets bounded below by 000, so no junk value of ⨅ enters. In (4.1) and (4.2) the range 1≤h≤2ℓ1 \le h \le 2\ell1≤h≤2ℓ is assumed: the page leaves it implicit, and outside it the printed E\mathcal EE can be negative and the printed bound false (finding F5). The trivializing formalization the series warns about, a non-measurable event read as probability 000 or an infimum over an empty element read as 000, is ruled out by those hypotheses.

Beyond the paper. One variant is posed: NatureSLT.SRM.theorem_4_1_corrected ([Corrected], finding F1). It adds n(ℓ)→∞n(\ell) \to \inftyn(ℓ)→∞ and reads the rate as P{∣R(αℓn(ℓ))−R(α0)∣>C V(ℓ)}→0P\{|R(\alpha^{n(\ell)}_\ell) - R(\alpha_0)| > C\,V(\ell)\} \to 0P{∣R(αℓn(ℓ)​)−R(α0​)∣>CV(ℓ)}→0 for some constant CCC. It is not a milestone. The planner also notes (F3) that the printed derivation of (4.27) from (4.25)–(4.26) has a gap. Those statements are not part of this mission.

Reusable infrastructure: the VC dimension of a real class, the product-measure sample space, and the footnote-3 notion of rate. Contributions welcome: proofs or disproofs of each item, and a published definition of vcDimReal that the other missions of this series could reference.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998. ISBN 978-0-471-03003-4.
  • V. N. Vapnik, A. Ya. Chervonenkis, Theory of Pattern Recognition (in Russian), Nauka, Moscow, 1974.
  • V. N. Vapnik, Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, Springer, 1982. doi:10.1007/0-387-34239-7
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
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CombinatoricsProbabilityStatistics·Captain: Shuze Chen

The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory III: The Growth Function Is Linear or LogarithmicTextbook

Motivation

Statistical learning theory asks when minimizing the error on a finite sample also controls the error on unseen data. For a set of classifiers, the answer given by Vapnik and Chervonenkis is governed by a single combinatorial quantity: how many different ways the set can label ℓ\ellℓ points. Bounds on the generalization error of empirical risk minimization are stated in terms of the logarithm of this number, the growth function, and they are informative only if the growth function grows sublinearly in ℓ\ellℓ.

The theorem at the centre of this mission says that there is no middle ground: the growth function is either exactly ℓln⁡2\ell \ln 2ℓln2 for every ℓ\ellℓ, or, from some point on, it is bounded by a logarithmic function h(ln⁡(ℓ/h)+1)h(\ln(\ell/h) + 1)h(ln(ℓ/h)+1). The integer hhh is the VC dimension. This dichotomy is what turns the abstract bounds of Chapter 3 of V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory (2nd ed., Springer 2000, doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1) into constructive ones (Eq. (3.24) of the book).

Timeline. Vapnik and Chervonenkis announced the connection between the growth function and the shattering number in 1968 and proved it in 1971 (Theory Probab. Appl. 16 (1971)), in the form mS(r)=2rm^S(r) = 2^rmS(r)=2r for all rrr or mS(r)≤rn+1m^S(r) \le r^n + 1mS(r)≤rn+1. Sauer (J. Combin. Theory A 13 (1972)) and Shelah (Pacific J. Math. 41 (1972)) independently proved the sharp polynomial bound ∑i=0h(ℓi)\sum_{i=0}^{h}\binom{\ell}{i}∑i=0h​(iℓ​). The logarithmic form used in the book follows from that sum together with the estimate ∑i≤h(ℓi)≤(eℓ/h)h\sum_{i \le h}\binom{\ell}{i} \le (e\ell/h)^h∑i≤h​(iℓ​)≤(eℓ/h)h. The book states its results without proofs (Preface, p. xi).

Setting

Let ZZZ be a nonempty set and Λ\LambdaΛ a nonempty set of parameters, and let Q(z,α)Q(z, \alpha)Q(z,α), α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, be a set of indicator functions on ZZZ: each takes only the values 000 and 111. For a sample z1,…,zℓ∈Zz_1, \dots, z_\ell \in Zz1​,…,zℓ​∈Z (repetitions allowed), let

NΛ(z1,…,zℓ)N^\Lambda(z_1, \dots, z_\ell)NΛ(z1​,…,zℓ​)

be the number of different binary vectors (Q(z1,α),…,Q(zℓ,α))(Q(z_1, \alpha), \dots, Q(z_\ell, \alpha))(Q(z1​,α),…,Q(zℓ​,α)) obtained as α\alphaα ranges over Λ\LambdaΛ (Section 2.3.2, p. 42). The growth function is

GΛ(ℓ)=ln⁡sup⁡z1,…,zℓNΛ(z1,…,zℓ)G^\Lambda(\ell) = \ln \sup_{z_1, \dots, z_\ell} N^\Lambda(z_1, \dots, z_\ell)GΛ(ℓ)=lnz1​,…,zℓ​sup​NΛ(z1​,…,zℓ​)

(Section 2.7, p. 55), with ln⁡\lnln the natural logarithm. Since NΛ≤2ℓN^\Lambda \le 2^\ellNΛ≤2ℓ, always GΛ(ℓ)≤ℓln⁡2G^\Lambda(\ell) \le \ell \ln 2GΛ(ℓ)≤ℓln2.

Points z1,…,zhz_1, \dots, z_hz1​,…,zh​ are shattered if for every δ1,…,δh∈{0,1}\delta_1, \dots, \delta_h \in \{0, 1\}δ1​,…,δh​∈{0,1} some α\alphaα has Q(zi,α)=δiQ(z_i, \alpha) = \delta_iQ(zi​,α)=δi​ for all iii. The VC dimension is the maximum number of shattered points, or ∞\infty∞ if arbitrarily many points are shattered (Section 3.6, p. 80). For a set of real functions A≤Q(z,α)≤BA \le Q(z, \alpha) \le BA≤Q(z,α)≤B, the VC dimension is that of the indicators θ{Q(z,α)−β}\theta\{Q(z, \alpha) - \beta\}θ{Q(z,α)−β}, β∈(A,B)\beta \in (A, B)β∈(A,B) (Eq. (3.22)), where the step function is θ(u)=0\theta(u) = 0θ(u)=0 for u<0u < 0u<0 and θ(u)=1\theta(u) = 1θ(u)=1 for u≥0u \ge 0u≥0.

In the Lean development these are numSeparations, growthFunction, Shatters, vcDim, stepFunction and vcDimReal in the namespace NatureSLT.GrowthFunction.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 79)

Either

GΛ(ℓ)=ℓln⁡2for every ℓ,G^\Lambda(\ell) = \ell \ln 2 \quad \text{for every } \ell,GΛ(ℓ)=ℓln2for every ℓ,

or there is an integer h≥0h \ge 0h≥0 with GΛ(h)=hln⁡2G^\Lambda(h) = h \ln 2GΛ(h)=hln2 and GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln⁡2G^\Lambda(h+1) < (h+1)\ln 2GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln2 such that

GΛ(ℓ)≤h(ln⁡ℓh+1)for every ℓ>h.G^\Lambda(\ell) \le h\left(\ln\frac{\ell}{h} + 1\right) \qquad \text{for every } \ell > h .GΛ(ℓ)≤h(lnhℓ​+1)for every ℓ>h.

The range ℓ>h\ell > hℓ>h is the one the book gives in both of its restatements of the theorem: the display after the Definition on p. 79 and Eq. (3.23) on p. 83.

Milestones

  1. Equivalent definition of the VC dimension (Section 3.6, p. 80): the VC dimension is infinite if and only if GΛ(ℓ)=ℓln⁡2G^\Lambda(\ell) = \ell\ln 2GΛ(ℓ)=ℓln2 for all ℓ\ellℓ, and equals hhh if and only if GΛ(h)=hln⁡2G^\Lambda(h) = h\ln 2GΛ(h)=hln2 and GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln⁡2G^\Lambda(h+1) < (h+1)\ln 2GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln2.
  2. Eq. (3.23) (p. 83): if the VC dimension is a finite hhh, then GΛ(ℓ)≤h(ln⁡(ℓ/h)+1)G^\Lambda(\ell) \le h(\ln(\ell/h) + 1)GΛ(ℓ)≤h(ln(ℓ/h)+1) for ℓ>h\ell > hℓ>h.
  3. Example 1(i) (p. 81): the linear indicator functions θ{∑p=1nαpzp+α0}\theta\{\sum_{p=1}^n \alpha_p z_p + \alpha_0\}θ{∑p=1n​αp​zp​+α0​} on Rn\mathbb R^nRn have VC dimension n+1n + 1n+1.
  4. Example 1(ii) (p. 81): the real linear functions ∑p=1nαpzp+α0\sum_{p=1}^n \alpha_p z_p + \alpha_0∑p=1n​αp​zp​+α0​ have VC dimension n+1n + 1n+1.
  5. Example 2(i) (p. 82): θ(sin⁡αz)\theta(\sin \alpha z)θ(sinαz), α∈R\alpha \in \mathbb Rα∈R, has infinite VC dimension; the points 10−1,…,10−ℓ10^{-1}, \dots, 10^{-\ell}10−1,…,10−ℓ are shattered by the explicit parameter α=π(∑i=1ℓ(1−δi)10i+1)\alpha = \pi(\sum_{i=1}^\ell (1 - \delta_i)10^i + 1)α=π(∑i=1ℓ​(1−δi​)10i+1).

Significance

The dichotomy is what makes the VC dimension a usable complexity measure. Combined with the bounds of Section 3.3, it gives distribution-free generalization bounds whose confidence term depends on ℓ\ellℓ and hhh only (Eq. (3.24)). It also explains why finiteness of the VC dimension is a sufficient condition for consistency of empirical risk minimization for every probability measure (p. 80): the growth function, divided by ℓ\ellℓ, tends to zero exactly when it is not linear. Examples 1 and 2 show that the VC dimension is not the number of parameters: linear functions have as many as their parameters, while a one-parameter family of sines has infinitely many.

The theorem is classical and has been proved many times. Related statements are already machine-checked on the platform in other forms: Sauer's lemma for concept classes (ComputationalLearning.sauer_lemma, FoundationsML.RademacherVC.sauer_lemma, HighDimProb.Chaining.sauer_shelah), the bound Φd(m)≤(em/d)d\Phi_d(m) \le (em/d)^dΦd​(m)≤(em/d)d (ComputationalLearning.phi_polynomial_bound), the 1971 dichotomy with the bound rn+1r^n + 1rn+1 for sets of events (VapnikChervonenkis.GrowthFunction.theorem1_growth_dichotomy), and the VC dimension of open halfspaces with ±\pm± labels (UnderstandingML.vcDim_halfspaces). What is not on the platform is the book's statement: the logarithmic bound for the growth function of an indexed set of {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-valued functions, with hhh characterized through the growth function itself, and the book's examples with the closed half-space convention θ(0)=1\theta(0) = 1θ(0)=1. This mission produces that statement and connects it to the shattering definition.

Difficulty

The obvious argument proves only half. That GΛ(h)=hln⁡2G^\Lambda(h) = h\ln 2GΛ(h)=hln2 and GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln⁡2G^\Lambda(h+1) < (h+1)\ln 2GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln2 pin down the largest shattered set is elementary; the content lies in the bound for ℓ>h\ell > hℓ>h: a class that shatters no h+1h + 1h+1 points must realize only polynomially many labelings of every ℓ\ellℓ points, with the explicit constant of the logarithmic form, and nothing in the definition of the growth function gives this directly. A tempting shortcut is to read the bound as valid for every ℓ\ellℓ, as the theorem's display does in isolation: this is false whenever h≥2h \ge 2h≥2, since GΛ(1)=ln⁡2G^\Lambda(1) = \ln 2GΛ(1)=ln2 exceeds h(ln⁡(1/h)+1)h(\ln(1/h) + 1)h(ln(1/h)+1). The range ℓ>h\ell > hℓ>h is essential. For the examples, the upper bound n+1n + 1n+1 in Example 1 is a Radon-type statement about n+2n + 2n+2 points in Rn\mathbb R^nRn, and Example 2 requires controlling the sign of sin⁡(α 10−i)\sin(\alpha\, 10^{-i})sin(α10−i) simultaneously for all iii with one parameter.

Formalization scope

Indicator functions are boolean-valued, true standing for 111, and written Q α z for the book's Q(z,α)Q(z, \alpha)Q(z,α); samples are maps Fin ℓ → Z, so indices run from 000. NΛN^\LambdaNΛ is the cardinality of the finite set of realized vectors in Fin ℓ → Bool; the supremum over samples is a supremum of natural numbers bounded by 2ℓ2^\ell2ℓ, and GΛG^\LambdaGΛ is Real.log of its cast. The VC dimension is valued in ℕ∞. ZZZ and Λ\LambdaΛ are assumed nonempty in every theorem, so the supremum is over a nonempty set of samples and is at least 111; the junk value ln⁡0=0\ln 0 = 0ln0=0 never enters. At h=0h = 0h=0 the book's expression h(ln⁡(ℓ/h)+1)h(\ln(\ell/h)+1)h(ln(ℓ/h)+1) is undefined; the formal statements evaluate it as 000, the limit as h→0+h \to 0^+h→0+, and the correct bound in that case, where GΛ≡0G^\Lambda \equiv 0GΛ≡0. The step function has θ(0)=1\theta(0) = 1θ(0)=1. Points of Rn\mathbb R^nRn are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); in Example 1(ii) the bounds of the real-function definition are A=−∞A = -\inftyA=−∞, B=+∞B = +\inftyB=+∞.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal is the disjunction of a linear growth function and the explicit bound h(ln⁡(ℓ/h)+1)h(\ln(\ell/h) + 1)h(ln(ℓ/h)+1) with hhh fixed by GΛ(h)=hln⁡2G^\Lambda(h) = h \ln 2GΛ(h)=hln2 and GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln⁡2G^\Lambda(h+1) < (h+1)\ln 2GΛ(h+1)<(h+1)ln2, not an existence statement over an arbitrary hhh and not a bound in which an empty parameter set makes the growth function vanish.

Beyond the paper. One variant is posed beside the faithful goal: a sharpness probe (growth_function_dichotomy_probe) claiming the logarithmic bound for every ℓ\ellℓ, i.e. without ℓ>h\ell > hℓ>h. Its evidence: for Z={1,…,10}Z = \{1, \dots, 10\}Z={1,…,10} and all subsets, h=10h = 10h=10 and GΛ(1)=ln⁡2>10(ln⁡(1/10)+1)G^\Lambda(1) = \ln 2 > 10(\ln(1/10) + 1)GΛ(1)=ln2>10(ln(1/10)+1). A disproof is the sought outcome.

A complete development needs: finite cardinality arguments for sets of binary vectors, the Sauer–Shelah lemma for an indexed family (Mathlib has Finset.card_shatterer_le_sum_vcDim for finite set families), the estimate ∑i≤h(ℓi)≤(eℓ/h)h\sum_{i\le h}\binom{\ell}{i} \le (e\ell/h)^h∑i≤h​(iℓ​)≤(eℓ/h)h, Radon's theorem or an affine-independence argument for Example 1, and elementary trigonometry for Example 2. The bridge between indexed families of indicator functions and set families is reusable by every later mission of this series. Contributions of any milestone, of bridge lemmas to the existing Sauer-type theorems, and of a disproof of the probe are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • V. N. Vapnik and A. Ya. Chervonenkis, On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities, Theory of Probability and Its Applications 16(2), 1971. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116025
  • N. Sauer, On the density of families of sets, Journal of Combinatorial Theory, Series A 13(1), 1972. https://doi.org/10.1016/0097-3165(72)90019-2
  • S. Shelah, A combinatorial problem; stability and order for models and theories in infinitary languages, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 41(1), 1972. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1972.41.247
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998. ISBN 978-0-471-03003-4
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: Shuze Chen

The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory II: The Basic Inequalities of the Theory of BoundsTextbook

Motivation

Every guarantee that a learning machine trained by empirical risk minimization will perform well on unseen data rests on one kind of statement: a bound on the probability that, simultaneously over a whole set of functions, observed frequencies stray far from the probabilities they estimate. Vapnik and Chervonenkis proved the first such bounds for sets of events in 1968 and 1971 (Vapnik–Chervonenkis 1971), with the growth function as the capacity measure and the constant e−ε2ℓ/8e^{-\varepsilon^2\ell/8}e−ε2ℓ/8. Vapnik's later monographs (Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, 1979; Statistical Learning Theory, 1998) refined the constants, replaced the growth function by the distribution-dependent annealed entropy, introduced the relative-deviation bound that underlies fast rates for small risks, and extended everything to bounded real-valued loss functions. Chapter 3 of The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory (2nd ed., Springer 2000, doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1) collects the resulting "basic inequalities of the theory of bounds" in their final form, stated without proof, and derives from them the confidence bounds used throughout the book (structural risk minimization in Chapter 4, support vector machines in Chapter 5).

This mission formalizes those inequalities exactly as the book prints them.

Setting

Let (Z,F)(Z, F)(Z,F) be a probability space and let Q(z,α)Q(z, \alpha)Q(z,α), α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, be a set of functions on ZZZ indexed by an arbitrary parameter set Λ\LambdaΛ (parameters need not be vectors). An i.i.d. sample z1,…,zℓz_1, \dots, z_\ellz1​,…,zℓ​ is drawn from FFF, i.e. from the product measure FℓF^\ellFℓ. For each α\alphaα the risk and the empirical risk are

R(α)=∫Q(z,α) dF(z),Remp(α)=1ℓ∑i=1ℓQ(zi,α).R(\alpha) = \int Q(z, \alpha)\, dF(z), \qquad R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha) = \frac1\ell \sum_{i=1}^\ell Q(z_i, \alpha).R(α)=∫Q(z,α)dF(z),Remp​(α)=ℓ1​i=1∑ℓ​Q(zi​,α).

When every Q(⋅,α)Q(\cdot, \alpha)Q(⋅,α) is an indicator function (values in {0,1}\{0, 1\}{0,1}), R(α)R(\alpha)R(α) is the probability of the event {Q(z,α)=1}\{Q(z, \alpha) = 1\}{Q(z,α)=1} and Remp(α)R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha)Remp​(α) its frequency. The number of different binary vectors (Q(z1,α),…,Q(zℓ,α))(Q(z_1, \alpha), \dots, Q(z_\ell, \alpha))(Q(z1​,α),…,Q(zℓ​,α)), α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, is NΛ(z1,…,zℓ)≤2ℓN^\Lambda(z_1, \dots, z_\ell) \le 2^\ellNΛ(z1​,…,zℓ​)≤2ℓ, the number of separations of the sample by the set. Two capacity measures are built from it:

HannΛ(ℓ)=ln⁡E NΛ(z1,…,zℓ)(annealed entropy),GΛ(ℓ)=ln⁡sup⁡z1,…,zℓNΛ(z1,…,zℓ)(growth function).H^\Lambda_{\mathrm{ann}}(\ell) = \ln E\, N^\Lambda(z_1, \dots, z_\ell) \quad\text{(annealed entropy)}, \qquad G^\Lambda(\ell) = \ln \sup_{z_1, \dots, z_\ell} N^\Lambda(z_1, \dots, z_\ell) \quad\text{(growth function)}.HannΛ​(ℓ)=lnENΛ(z1​,…,zℓ​)(annealed entropy),GΛ(ℓ)=lnz1​,…,zℓ​sup​NΛ(z1​,…,zℓ​)(growth function).

The annealed entropy depends on FFF; the growth function does not and dominates it.

For a set of real functions with A≤Q(z,α)≤BA \le Q(z, \alpha) \le BA≤Q(z,α)≤B, the book passes to the set of indicators θ{Q(z,α)−β}\theta\{Q(z, \alpha) - \beta\}θ{Q(z,α)−β}, α∈Λ\alpha \in \Lambdaα∈Λ, β∈B=(A,B)\beta \in \mathcal B = (A, B)β∈B=(A,B), where θ(u)=1\theta(u) = 1θ(u)=1 for u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 and 000 otherwise; HannΛ,BH^{\Lambda, \mathcal B}_{\mathrm{ann}}HannΛ,B​ and GΛ,BG^{\Lambda, \mathcal B}GΛ,B are the annealed entropy and growth function of this indicator set.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (p. 70)

For indicator functions and every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0,

P{sup⁡α∈Λ∣∫Q(z,α) dF(z)−1ℓ∑i=1ℓQ(zi,α)∣>ε}≤4exp⁡{(HannΛ(2ℓ)ℓ−ε2)ℓ}.P\left\{ \sup_{\alpha \in \Lambda} \left| \int Q(z, \alpha)\, dF(z) - \frac1\ell \sum_{i=1}^\ell Q(z_i, \alpha) \right| > \varepsilon \right\} \le 4 \exp\left\{ \left( \frac{H^\Lambda_{\mathrm{ann}}(2\ell)}{\ell} - \varepsilon^2 \right) \ell \right\}.P{α∈Λsup​​∫Q(z,α)dF(z)−ℓ1​i=1∑ℓ​Q(zi​,α)​>ε}≤4exp{(ℓHannΛ​(2ℓ)​−ε2)ℓ}.

The constants are the book's: the factor 444, the exponent ε2ℓ\varepsilon^2\ellε2ℓ, and the entropy evaluated at 2ℓ2\ell2ℓ. No sample-size restriction is imposed beyond ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.2 (p. 70): the relative deviation (R(α)−Remp(α))/R(α)(R(\alpha) - R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha))/\sqrt{R(\alpha)}(R(α)−Remp​(α))/R(α)​ exceeds ε\varepsilonε for some α\alphaα with probability at most 4exp⁡{(HannΛ(2ℓ)/ℓ−ε2/4)ℓ}4\exp\{(H^\Lambda_{\mathrm{ann}}(2\ell)/\ell - \varepsilon^2/4)\ell\}4exp{(HannΛ​(2ℓ)/ℓ−ε2/4)ℓ}.
  2. Eq. (3.3) (p. 72): Theorem 3.1 with GΛ(2ℓ)G^\Lambda(2\ell)GΛ(2ℓ) in place of HannΛ(2ℓ)H^\Lambda_{\mathrm{ann}}(2\ell)HannΛ​(2ℓ), for every FFF.
  3. Eq. (3.4) (p. 72): Theorem 3.2 with GΛ(2ℓ)G^\Lambda(2\ell)GΛ(2ℓ), for every FFF.
  4. Eq. (3.6) (p. 74): for A≤Q≤BA \le Q \le BA≤Q≤B, the bound 4exp⁡{(HannΛ,B(2ℓ)/ℓ−ε2/(B−A)2)ℓ}4\exp\{(H^{\Lambda, \mathcal B}_{\mathrm{ann}}(2\ell)/\ell - \varepsilon^2/(B - A)^2)\ell\}4exp{(HannΛ,B​(2ℓ)/ℓ−ε2/(B−A)2)ℓ}.
  5. Eq. (3.15) (p. 76): with E=4(GΛ,B(2ℓ)−ln⁡(η/4))/ℓ\mathcal E = 4(G^{\Lambda, \mathcal B}(2\ell) - \ln(\eta/4))/\ellE=4(GΛ,B(2ℓ)−ln(η/4))/ℓ, with probability at least 1−η1 - \eta1−η simultaneously for all α\alphaα, ∣R(α)−Remp(α)∣≤B−A2E|R(\alpha) - R_{\mathrm{emp}}(\alpha)| \le \frac{B - A}{2}\sqrt{\mathcal E}∣R(α)−Remp​(α)∣≤2B−A​E​ (stated as the book's two one-sided inequalities).
  6. Eq. (3.26) with (3.25) (p. 84): for a finite set of NNN functions and E=2(ln⁡N−ln⁡η)/ℓ\mathcal E = 2(\ln N - \ln \eta)/\ellE=2(lnN−lnη)/ℓ, the same two-sided statement.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 3.1 and its relatives turn a capacity estimate into a confidence interval for the risk of every function in the set at once, including the one chosen by empirical risk minimization. They are the bridge between the combinatorics of Chapter 3 (the growth function is either ℓln⁡2\ell \ln 2ℓln2 or at most h(ln⁡(ℓ/h)+1)h(\ln(\ell/h) + 1)h(ln(ℓ/h)+1) for VC dimension hhh) and every algorithmic guarantee in the rest of the book: structural risk minimization, the VC bound for margin hyperplanes, the support vector machine. The relative-deviation form (Theorem 3.2) is what makes bounds of order ln⁡N/ℓ\ln N/\elllnN/ℓ rather than ln⁡N/ℓ\sqrt{\ln N/\ell}lnN/ℓ​ possible when the empirical risk is near zero.

Formalizing it. The book prints no proofs. The classical argument is published (Vapnik–Chervonenkis 1971; Vapnik 1998, Chapter 4), but with other constants: the 1971 theorem has e−ε2ℓ/8e^{-\varepsilon^2\ell/8}e−ε2ℓ/8 and needs ℓ≥2/ε2\ell \ge 2/\varepsilon^2ℓ≥2/ε2, and the 1998 version has (ε−1/ℓ)2(\varepsilon - 1/\ell)^2(ε−1/ℓ)2 in place of ε2\varepsilon^2ε2. On Prove2Me the 1971 form is proved as VapnikChervonenkis.Inequality.theorem2_uniform_deviation_bound, together with its symmetrization and permutation lemmas, and finite-class uniform convergence with ln⁡(2∣H∣/δ)\ln(2|H|/\delta)ln(2∣H∣/δ) is proved as UnderstandingML.finite_class_uniform_convergence. Neither states the book's constants, the annealed entropy, the relative deviation or the real-function extension, so the statements here are new. Settling whether the book's constants hold as printed, for every ℓ≥1\ell \ge 1ℓ≥1, is part of the work.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 3.1 replaces the supremum over the possibly uncountable set Λ\LambdaΛ by a finite one through a ghost sample of size ℓ\ellℓ and a count of separations on the doubled sample. Every step costs constants: the symmetrization inequality loses a factor 222 and requires ℓε2\ell\varepsilon^2ℓε2 to be large, and the conditional deviation bound for sampling without replacement brings its own exponent. Reproducing the textbook argument therefore tends to yield the 1971 or 1998 constants, not the printed 4e−ε2ℓ4e^{-\varepsilon^2\ell}4e−ε2ℓ with no sample-size condition; reaching or refuting the printed form is the crux. The relative-deviation bound needs a separate normalization argument, and the real-function bounds require relating deviations of QQQ to deviations of its level-set indicators uniformly in the level β\betaβ.

The finite-class item (3.26) with (3.25) is expected to be false as printed: a single fair coin with ℓ=2\ell = 2ℓ=2 and η=0.4\eta = 0.4η=0.4 violates it (finding F1).

Formalization scope

The sample is z : Fin ℓ → Z under Measure.pi (fun _ => F) with [IsProbabilityMeasure F]; Λ\LambdaΛ is an arbitrary type and Q:Λ→Z→RQ : \Lambda \to Z \to \mathbb RQ:Λ→Z→R. Indicator functions carry the hypothesis that every value is 000 or 111; real functions carry A≤Q≤BA \le Q \le BA≤Q≤B with A<BA < BA<B. RRR and RempR_{\mathrm{emp}}Remp​ are written inline as the integral and the normalized sum. The event "the supremum exceeds ε\varepsilonε" is written "some α\alphaα has deviation exceeding ε\varepsilonε", which is the same event for a strict inequality; a bare ⨆ α over an unbounded family would read Lean's junk value 000 and make the bound trivially true, and is not used. Probabilities are compared in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] with ENNReal.ofReal of the real bound, and "with probability at least 1−η1 - \eta1−η" is ENNReal.ofReal (1 - η) ≤ F^ℓ(event) with 0<η<10 < \eta < 10<η<1. In Theorem 3.2 and (3.4) the supremum runs over the α\alphaα with R(α)>0R(\alpha) > 0R(α)>0, which excludes the zero denominator.

The book assumes the events it measures to be measurable; this is made explicit: each Q(⋅,α)Q(\cdot, \alpha)Q(⋅,α) is measurable, NΛN^\LambdaNΛ (or the counting function of the indicator set) is measurable on Z2ℓZ^{2\ell}Z2ℓ wherever an expectation of it appears, and the deviation events are measurable at every level. These hypotheses are needed so that a non-measurable count cannot turn HannH_{\mathrm{ann}}Hann​ into ln⁡0=0\ln 0 = 0ln0=0 and make the bound vacuous or stronger than the book's. The finite-class items need no event-measurability hypothesis.

The definitions are numSeparations (NΛN^\LambdaNΛ, via Set.ncard of the set of vectors), annealedEntropy, growthFunction (a real supremum, bounded by 2ℓ2^\ell2ℓ for {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-valued families) and levelIndicators (indexed by Λ×(A,B)\Lambda \times (A, B)Λ×(A,B), with θ(0)=1\theta(0) = 1θ(0)=1). They are reusable by any development of VC theory in this form.

Beyond the paper. One corrected variant is posed: eq_3_26_finite_corrected, the finite-class two-sided bound with ln⁡(2N)\ln(2N)ln(2N) in place of ln⁡N\ln NlnN in (3.25). The evidence (finding F1) is that with ln⁡N\ln NlnN and N=1N = 1N=1, ℓ=2\ell = 2ℓ=2, η=0.4\eta = 0.4η=0.4, the half-width is about 0.4790.4790.479 while ∣R−Remp∣=1/2|R - R_{\mathrm{emp}}| = 1/2∣R−Remp​∣=1/2 with probability 1/21/21/2. With ln⁡(2N)\ln(2N)ln(2N) the statement is the standard two-sided finite-class bound.

Welcome contributions: proofs or disproofs of the goal and milestones with the printed constants; proofs of the corrected variant; a disproof of the faithful (3.26) with (3.25).

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, 2nd ed., Springer, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3264-1
  • V. N. Vapnik, A. Ya. Chervonenkis, "On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities", Theory of Probability and Its Applications 16(2), 1971, 264–280. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116025
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998. ISBN 978-0-471-03003-4
  • V. N. Vapnik, Estimation of Dependences Based on Empirical Data, Springer, 1982 (Russian ed. 1979). https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-34239-7
  • W. Hoeffding, "Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables", Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963, 13–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Risk Guarantees for End-to-End Prediction and Optimization Processes: The Excess Squared-Loss Risk Bounds the Squared Excess Optimality-Gap Risk, Scaled by the Squared Diameter of the Feasible SetResearch Paper

Motivation

Many operational decisions are optimization problems whose cost vector is unknown when the decision is made but can be predicted from observed features: shortest paths under predicted travel times, portfolios under predicted returns, production plans under predicted prices. The common practice, predict-then-optimize, first fits a regression model ggg mapping features www to a cost estimate g(w)g(w)g(w) and then solves the optimization problem with g(w)g(w)g(w) in place of the true cost ccc. What the decision maker cares about is not the prediction error but the optimality gap of the resulting decision under the true cost. Elmachtoub and Grigas (arXiv:1710.08005, Management Science 2022) introduced the SPO+ surrogate to train predictors against that gap directly, and established its Fisher consistency.

Ho-Nguyen and Kılınç-Karzan (arXiv:2012.15046, Management Science 2022) ask which surrogate losses give quantitative guarantees: when does a small excess surrogate risk force a small excess optimality-gap risk, uniformly over a class of data distributions? Their answer adapts the calibration theory of Steinwart (Constructive Approximation 26, 2007) to the end-to-end setting, and its most striking consequence concerns the ordinary squared loss.

Setting

Let X⊂RmX \subset \mathbb R^mX⊂Rm be a non-empty convex compact set and fff a convex function, continuous on XXX. For a cost vector ccc the decision maker solves

min⁡x∈X {f(x)+c⊤x}.\min_{x \in X}\ \{ f(x) + c^\top x \}.x∈Xmin​ {f(x)+c⊤x}.

An argmin selection is a fixed map x∗:Rm→Xx^* : \mathbb R^m \to Xx∗:Rm→X with x∗(d)x^*(d)x∗(d) a minimizer of f(x)+d⊤xf(x) + d^\top xf(x)+d⊤x over XXX for every ddd. Using a prediction ddd instead of the true cost ccc incurs the true loss

L(d,c)=f(x∗(d))+c⊤x∗(d)−min⁡x∈X{f(x)+c⊤x} ≥0.L(d,c) = f(x^*(d)) + c^\top x^*(d) - \min_{x \in X}\{f(x) + c^\top x\} \ \ge 0 .L(d,c)=f(x∗(d))+c⊤x∗(d)−x∈Xmin​{f(x)+c⊤x} ≥0.

Features and costs form a random pair (w,c)∈W×Rm(w,c) \in W \times \mathbb R^m(w,c)∈W×Rm with joint law P\mathbb PP. For a loss ℓ\ellℓ and a measurable predictor g:W→Rmg : W \to \mathbb R^mg:W→Rm, the risk is Rℓ(g,P)=E[ℓ(g(w),c)]R_\ell(g,\mathbb P) = \mathbb E[\ell(g(w),c)]Rℓ​(g,P)=E[ℓ(g(w),c)] and the Bayes risk is Rℓ(P)=inf⁡gRℓ(g,P)R_\ell(\mathbb P) = \inf_g R_\ell(g,\mathbb P)Rℓ​(P)=infg​Rℓ​(g,P) over measurable ggg; for ℓ=L\ell = Lℓ=L these are written R(g,P)R(g,\mathbb P)R(g,P) and R(P)R(\mathbb P)R(P). The squared loss is ℓLS(d,c)=∥d−c∥22\ell_{LS}(d,c) = \|d - c\|_2^2ℓLS​(d,c)=∥d−c∥22​.

Given a set C⊂RmC \subset \mathbb R^mC⊂Rm, the class P\mathcal PP consists of the laws for which every conditional law P[⋅∣w]\mathbb P[\cdot \mid w]P[⋅∣w] is concentrated on CCC, is square integrable, and has mean E[c∣w]∈Conv(C)\mathbb E[c \mid w] \in \mathrm{Conv}(C)E[c∣w]∈Conv(C). Assumption 2 asks that CCC be bounded. The constants are BX=max⁡x,x′∈X∥x−x′∥2B_X = \max_{x,x' \in X}\|x - x'\|_2BX​=maxx,x′∈X​∥x−x′∥2​, Bf=max⁡x,x′∈X{f(x)−f(x′)}B_f = \max_{x,x' \in X}\{f(x) - f(x')\}Bf​=maxx,x′∈X​{f(x)−f(x′)} and BC=max⁡c∈C∥c∥2B_C = \max_{c \in C}\|c\|_2BC​=maxc∈C​∥c∥2​.

A loss ℓ\ellℓ is P\mathcal PP-uniformly calibrated if for every ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 there is δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 such that, for every law in P\mathcal PP, every www and every ddd, a conditional excess ℓ\ellℓ-risk E[ℓ(d,c)∣w]−inf⁡d′E[ℓ(d′,c)∣w]\mathbb E[\ell(d,c)\mid w] - \inf_{d'}\mathbb E[\ell(d',c)\mid w]E[ℓ(d,c)∣w]−infd′​E[ℓ(d′,c)∣w] below δ\deltaδ forces a conditional excess true risk below ϵ\epsilonϵ. The largest such δ\deltaδ is the calibration function δℓ(ϵ;P)\delta_\ell(\epsilon;\mathcal P)δℓ​(ϵ;P).

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 3 (p. 22)

For every law P∈P\mathbb P \in \mathcal PP∈P with E∥c∥22<∞\mathbb E\|c\|_2^2 < \inftyE∥c∥22​<∞ and every measurable predictor ggg,

(R(g,P)−R(P))2 ≤ BX2 (RℓLS(g,P)−RℓLS(P)).\big(R(g,\mathbb P) - R(\mathbb P)\big)^2 \ \le\ B_X^2\,\big(R_{\ell_{LS}}(g,\mathbb P) - R_{\ell_{LS}}(\mathbb P)\big).(R(g,P)−R(P))2 ≤ BX2​(RℓLS​​(g,P)−RℓLS​​(P)).

Milestones

  • Lemma 2 (p. 10): g∗(w)=E[c∣w]g^*(w) = \mathbb E[c \mid w]g∗(w)=E[c∣w] attains R(P)R(\mathbb P)R(P), and R(P)=E[min⁡d′E[L(d′,c)∣w]]R(\mathbb P) = \mathbb E[\min_{d'}\mathbb E[L(d',c)\mid w]]R(P)=E[mind′​E[L(d′,c)∣w]].
  • Remark 5 (p. 19): the conditional excess true risk equals f(x∗(d))−f(x∗(cˉ))+cˉ⊤(x∗(d)−x∗(cˉ))f(x^*(d)) - f(x^*(\bar c)) + \bar c^\top(x^*(d) - x^*(\bar c))f(x∗(d))−f(x∗(cˉ))+cˉ⊤(x∗(d)−x∗(cˉ)) with cˉ=E[c∣w]\bar c = \mathbb E[c\mid w]cˉ=E[c∣w], and is at most Bf+BCBXB_f + B_C B_XBf​+BC​BX​.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 20): uniform calibration holds iff δℓ(ϵ;P)>0\delta_\ell(\epsilon;\mathcal P) > 0δℓ​(ϵ;P)>0 for all ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0.
  • Lemma 4 (p. 21): the alternative form (14) of δℓ\delta_\ellδℓ​.
  • Lemma 5 (p. 21): ∥d−cˉ∥2≥max⁡{0,f(x)−f(x′)+cˉ⊤(x−x′)}/∥x−x′∥2\|d - \bar c\|_2 \ge \max\{0, f(x) - f(x') + \bar c^\top(x - x')\}/\|x - x'\|_2∥d−cˉ∥2​≥max{0,f(x)−f(x′)+cˉ⊤(x−x′)}/∥x−x′∥2​ when x∗(d)=x≠x′=x∗(cˉ)x^*(d) = x \ne x' = x^*(\bar c)x∗(d)=x=x′=x∗(cˉ).
  • Lemma 6 (p. 22): δℓLS(ϵ;P)\delta_{\ell_{LS}}(\epsilon;\mathcal P)δℓLS​​(ϵ;P) is the purely geometric infimum of ∥d−cˉ∥22\|d - \bar c\|_2^2∥d−cˉ∥22​.
  • Theorem 4 (p. 22): ℓLS\ell_{LS}ℓLS​ is P\mathcal PP-uniformly calibrated, with δℓLS(ϵ;P)≥ϵ2/BX2>0\delta_{\ell_{LS}}(\epsilon;\mathcal P) \ge \epsilon^2/B_X^2 > 0δℓLS​​(ϵ;P)≥ϵ2/BX2​>0.
  • Theorem 3 (p. 20): for any uniformly calibrated ℓ\ellℓ, δℓ∗∗(R(g,P)−R(P))≤Rℓ(g,P)−Rℓ(P)\delta^{**}_\ell(R(g,\mathbb P) - R(\mathbb P)) \le R_\ell(g,\mathbb P) - R_\ell(\mathbb P)δℓ∗∗​(R(g,P)−R(P))≤Rℓ​(g,P)−Rℓ​(P), with δℓ∗∗\delta^{**}_\ellδℓ∗∗​ the convex minorant of δℓ\delta_\ellδℓ​ on (0,Bf+BCBX](0, B_f + B_C B_X](0,Bf​+BC​BX​].

The goal is stated with the constant BX2B_X^2BX2​ and no other problem data: it is independent of fff, of CCC beyond boundedness, and of the law of the data.

Significance

The corollary says that a predictor trained by ordinary least squares, without any information about fff or XXX, has excess optimality-gap risk at most BXRℓLS(g,P)−RℓLS(P)B_X\sqrt{R_{\ell_{LS}}(g,\mathbb P) - R_{\ell_{LS}}(\mathbb P)}BX​RℓLS​​(g,P)−RℓLS​​(P)​. Since the excess squared-loss risk separates over coordinates, coordinate-wise regression bounds suffice for end-to-end guarantees (Remark 7). Any learning-theoretic rate for least-squares regression therefore transfers to a rate for the decision problem, up to a square root. Theorem 3 gives the same transfer for any uniformly calibrated surrogate, and is the template for the paper's further results on separable symmetric losses.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires a measure-theoretic treatment of conditional risks through kernels, a Lean version of Steinwart's convexified calibration inequality in this setting, and the geometric bound of Lemma 5. Each milestone is a self-contained target.

Difficulty

The true loss L(d,c)L(d,c)L(d,c) is neither convex nor continuous in ddd (Lemma 1): the decision x∗(d)x^*(d)x∗(d) jumps between faces of XXX. A pointwise comparison between ∥d−c∥22\|d - c\|_2^2∥d−c∥22​ and L(d,c)L(d,c)L(d,c) fails, since a prediction close to ccc can still select a far-away vertex when ccc lies near a tie. The comparison only holds after conditioning on www and averaging over ccc, and it must hold uniformly over all conditional laws in P\mathcal PP, not for a fixed distribution. The step from conditional comparisons to the integrated risks is where the uniform bound Bf+BCBXB_f + B_C B_XBf​+BC​BX​ on the conditional excess true risk and the convention at ϵ=0\epsilon = 0ϵ=0 in δ∗∗\delta^{**}δ∗∗ matter; Bayes risks are infima over predictors, so this step also needs the conditional minimizers to assemble into a measurable predictor.

Formalization scope

Vectors live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m). The standing setting (Standing X f) bundles convexity, compactness and non-emptiness of XXX, convexity of fff on XXX and continuity of fff on XXX; IsArgminSelection X f xstar is the selection property. A joint law is μ ⊗ₘ κ, with μ the law of www and κ a Markov kernel giving P[⋅∣w]\mathbb P[\cdot \mid w]P[⋅∣w]; E[c∣w]\mathbb E[c \mid w]E[c∣w] is the Bochner integral against κ w. Risks are [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued lower integrals of ENNReal.ofReal of the non-negative losses, Bayes risks are infima over measurable predictors, and excess risks are truncated differences. The class P\mathcal PP is lsClass C, a set of conditional laws concentrated on C‘;thecalibrationfunction‘deltaL‘and‘UniformlyCalibrated‘rangeoversuchaset,whichmatchesthepage′s"forallC`; the calibration function `deltaL` and `UniformlyCalibrated` range over such a set, which matches the page's "for all C‘;thecalibrationfunction‘deltaL‘and‘UniformlyCalibrated‘rangeoversuchaset,whichmatchesthepage′s"forall\mathbb P \in \mathcal P,, ,w \in W"whenever" whenever "wheneverWisnon−empty.is non-empty.isnon−empty.B_X$ is Metric.diam X.

Added or pinned conventions:

  • measurability of xstar (the paper uses Lebesgue measurability, Lemma EC.4) and of predictors;
  • E∥c∥22<∞\mathbb E\|c\|_2^2 < \inftyE∥c∥22​<∞ in the goal, explicit though implied by support on bounded CCC, to make the extended-real Bayes-risk subtraction finite;
  • 1/BX21/B_X^21/BX2​ multiplied out in the goal; Theorem 4 carries BX>0B_X>0BX​>0 for its printed quotient;
  • the conclusion of (12) read conditionally on www;
  • δ∗∗\delta^{**}δ∗∗ constrained by h′(0)≤0h'(0) \le 0h′(0)≤0 (the convention δℓ(0)=0\delta_\ell(0) = 0δℓ​(0)=0 of p. 19);
  • in Theorem 3, the identity Rℓ(P)=E[inf⁡d′E[ℓ(d′,c)∣w]]R_\ell(\mathbb P) = \mathbb E[\inf_{d'}\mathbb E[\ell(d',c)\mid w]]Rℓ​(P)=E[infd′​E[ℓ(d′,c)∣w]] and finiteness of Rℓ(P)R_\ell(\mathbb P)Rℓ​(P).

The Bayes risks are genuine infima over measurable predictors and the conditional excess risks are defined generically. Neither is defined by the closed form that Lemma 2 or Lemma 6 establishes, so neither lemma holds by definition.

Needed infrastructure: lower integrals against μ ⊗ₘ κ and their disintegration, measurability of the conditional mean and of the optimal value c↦min⁡x{f(x)+c⊤x}c \mapsto \min_x\{f(x) + c^\top x\}c↦minx​{f(x)+c⊤x}, Jensen's inequality for real convex functions on a bounded interval, and the distance from a point to a half-space. The bias–variance decomposition for laws on Rm\mathbb R^mRm and the half-space distance formula are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal that bypass Theorem 3.

Selected references

  • N. Ho-Nguyen and F. Kılınç-Karzan, Risk guarantees for end-to-end prediction and optimization processes, Management Science 68(12), 2022. arXiv:2012.15046v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.15046
  • A. N. Elmachtoub and P. Grigas, Smart "predict, then optimize", Management Science 68(1), 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.08005
  • I. Steinwart, How to compare different loss functions and their risks, Constructive Approximation 26, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00365-006-0662-3
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OptimizationRandom Matrix TheoryStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data: Spectrally Initialized Vanilla Gradient Descent Recovers the Tensor Factors at a Linear Rate to Near-Optimal ℓ2 and ℓ2,∞ AccuracyResearch Paper

Motivation

A partially observed array with three indices appears when data record relationships among triples of objects. If its entries have a low-rank structure, one can hope to recover the full array from far fewer than d3d^3d3 measurements. Cai, Li, Poor and Chen study this problem when the measurements are noisy and only a random subset of entries is seen. Their result gives a statistical error bound for a concrete two-stage method: spectral initialization followed by ordinary gradient descent on a nonconvex loss. It is a known theorem, proved in the pinned preprint, rather than an open conjecture.

Setting

The unknown symmetric order-three tensor is T⋆∈Rd×d×dT^\star\in\mathbb R^{d\times d\times d}T⋆∈Rd×d×d. It has a CP decomposition T⋆=∑s=1r(us⋆)⊗3T^\star=\sum_{s=1}^r(u_s^\star)^{\otimes3}T⋆=∑s=1r​(us⋆​)⊗3, where the nonzero columns us⋆u_s^\starus⋆​ form U⋆∈Rd×rU^\star\in\mathbb R^{d\times r}U⋆∈Rd×r. Each unordered triple of coordinates is sampled independently with probability ppp; its six permutations share one sampling decision. On a sampled triple the observation is Tijk⋆+EijkT^\star_{ijk}+E_{ijk}Tijk⋆​+Eijk​, with symmetric, centered, independent sub-Gaussian noise of variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2. The observed tensor TTT vanishes outside the sampled set Ω\OmegaΩ.

For a candidate factor matrix U=[u1,…,ur]U=[u_1,\ldots,u_r]U=[u1​,…,ur​], the objective is

f(U)=16p∥PΩ ⁣(∑s=1rus⊗3−T)∥F2.f(U)=\frac{1}{6p}\left\|P_\Omega\!\left(\sum_{s=1}^r u_s^{\otimes3}-T\right)\right\|_F^2.f(U)=6p1​​PΩ​(s=1∑r​us⊗3​−T)​F2​.

Algorithm 2 obtains a leading rrr-dimensional eigenspace from an off-diagonal Gram matrix of the mode-one unfolding of p−1Tp^{-1}Tp−1T. Algorithm 3 uses Gaussian restarts, leading singular vectors, and greedy pruning to turn that subspace into a factor matrix U0U^0U0. Algorithm 1 then applies the gradient step to fff. Eigenvalue ties, leading singular-vector choices, and pruning ties can produce several admissible executions; the result concerns every execution.

Incoherence μ\muμ measures how evenly the tensor and factors spread across coordinates and how nearly orthogonal distinct factors are. The condition number κ\kappaκ is the ratio of the largest to smallest factor norm. Write λmin⁡⋆=min⁡s∥us⋆∥23\lambda^\star_{\min}=\min_s\|u_s^\star\|_2^3λmin⋆​=mins​∥us⋆​∥23​ and λmax⁡⋆=max⁡s∥us⋆∥23\lambda^\star_{\max}=\max_s\|u_s^\star\|_2^3λmax⋆​=maxs​∥us⋆​∥23​. Distances dist⁡F\operatorname{dist}_FdistF​, dist⁡∞\operatorname{dist}_\inftydist∞​, and dist⁡2,∞\operatorname{dist}_{2,\infty}dist2,∞​ minimize their respective matrix norms over permutations of the rrr columns.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2.4, in the bounded-rank, bounded-incoherence, bounded-condition-number regime. Under its printed sampling, noise, restart, threshold and step-size conditions, for every 0≤t≤d50\le t\le d^50≤t≤d5 it asserts, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,

dist⁡F(Ut,U⋆)≤(C1ρt+C2σλmin⁡⋆dlog⁡dp)∥U⋆∥F,\operatorname{dist}_F(U^t,U^\star)\le\left(C_1\rho^t+C_2\frac{\sigma}{\lambda^\star_{\min}}\sqrt{\frac{d\log d}{p}}\right)\|U^\star\|_F,distF​(Ut,U⋆)≤(C1​ρt+C2​λmin⋆​σ​pdlogd​​)∥U⋆∥F​, dist⁡∞(Ut,U⋆)≤dist⁡2,∞(Ut,U⋆)≤(C3ρt+C4σλmin⁡⋆dlog⁡dp)∥U⋆∥2,∞.\operatorname{dist}_\infty(U^t,U^\star)\le\operatorname{dist}_{2,\infty}(U^t,U^\star)\le\left(C_3\rho^t+C_4\frac{\sigma}{\lambda^\star_{\min}}\sqrt{\frac{d\log d}{p}}\right)\|U^\star\|_{2,\infty}.dist∞​(Ut,U⋆)≤dist2,∞​(Ut,U⋆)≤(C3​ρt+C4​λmin⋆​σ​pdlogd​​)∥U⋆∥2,∞​.

The rate is fixed to ρ=1−λmin⁡⋆,4/3η/5\rho=1-\lambda_{\min}^{\star,4/3}\eta/5ρ=1−λmin⋆,4/3​η/5, consistent with the paper's local-convergence lemmas. Milestones formalize the gradient identity (36), local Hessian bounds (Lemma 5.1), spectral-subspace recovery (Lemma 5.7), factor retrieval (Theorem 5.9), and the paper's general-parameter recovery theorem (Theorem 2.8). The latter makes the dependence on μ\muμ and rrr explicit.

Significance

The inequalities give two guarantees at once: geometric reduction of initialization error and an explicit noise floor. The 2,∞2,\infty2,∞ bound controls the error in each coordinate row, which a Frobenius estimate alone does not supply. Together with the tensor-entry corollaries in the paper, they explain the accuracy of this practical nonconvex method under random subsampling. The authors also specify how the sample probability, noise level, rank and incoherence interact, so the result can be compared to other tensor-completion methods.

This mission asks for a machine-checked version of the known result. Its published ψ₂ norm definition is reused; the paper-specific tensor model, spectral initialization relations, loss and gradient iteration are new. The theorem statements compile with sorry, so none of their proofs is claimed as machine checked here. Proofs of the listed milestones, the main theorem, and faithful auxiliary concentration results are welcome; the paper's numerical experiments are outside this formalization.

Difficulty

The gradient loss is nonconvex, so global convexity cannot justify the iteration bound. The local Hessian estimate applies only near U⋆U^\starU⋆ in both Frobenius and rowwise norm. A Frobenius estimate alone cannot establish the rowwise condition at every iteration. The spectral initializer must also select individual factors from a subspace despite nearly tied eigenvalues and noisy tensor contractions. These are the points where a direct appeal to standard smooth-gradient-descent theory stops short of the stated result.

Formalization scope

Coordinates are Fin d and Fin r, with zero-based indexing; the PDF uses one-based indices. All logarithms are natural. Tensor and matrix norms are explicit finite-coordinate Euclidean norms. Minima over permutations range over all permutations of Fin r, and maxima in the incoherence parameters range over the indices specified by Definition 2.1. Sampling is on sorted triples, then extended by symmetry. The probability model is a single probability space carrying the sampling indicators, noise variables and Gaussian restarts, jointly independent; the paper leaves some cross-family independence implicit. Noise has mean zero, variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2, and ψ₂ norm at most σ\sigmaσ using the published extended-nonnegative norm. The last bound makes the paper's sub-Gaussian scale explicit.

The statements use d≥d0≥2d\ge d_0\ge2d≥d0​≥2, r≥1r\ge1r≥1, nonzero true factor columns, 0<p≤10<p\le10<p≤1, and σ≥0\sigma\ge0σ≥0. Theorems 2.8 and 5.9 use r≥2r\ge2r≥2 and round their real-valued restart count up to a natural number; this handles the boundary where log⁡r=0\log r=0logr=0. Theorem 2.4 places its claimed absolute error constants before the rank and incoherence bounds and all instance data. Probability is expressed as the outer measure of the bad event, since admissible-execution predicates quantify over choices and need not be measurable. Each good event explicitly asserts that an admissible execution exists before requiring the bounds for every execution; otherwise a failed pruning run would make a universal claim vacuous.

The remaining reusable infrastructure includes concentration for symmetric sampled tensors, finite-dimensional spectral perturbation with ties, and derivative estimates for the cubic factor map. The paper's leave-one-out iteration lemmas and their auxiliary estimators are not included in this initial milestone list; they remain natural contributions toward the full proof.

Selected references

  • C. Cai, G. Li, H. V. Poor and Y. Chen, Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data, arXiv:1911.04436v2, 2021; published in Operations Research 70(2), 2022. Preprint.
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Definition 2.5.6 for the ψ₂ norm. Publisher DOI.
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Markov ChainOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning Markov Models Via Low-Rank Optimization: KL Error Bound for the Rank-Constrained Maximum Likelihood Estimator of a Low-Rank Markov ChainResearch Paper

Motivation

Many systems studied in operations research and reinforcement learning are modelled as finite Markov chains with a large number of states ppp: the stops of a taxi in a city, a random walk on a network, the conformations of a molecule. Estimating the p×pp\times pp×p transition matrix from one observed trajectory needs, in general, a trajectory long compared with the p2p^2p2 unknown entries. In many such systems the transition matrix has, at least approximately, a small rank r≪pr\ll pr≪p: the observed chain is driven by a low-dimensional latent process, as in state aggregation, where P(st+1∣st)=∑zP(zt=z∣st) P(st+1∣zt=z)\mathbb P(s_{t+1}\mid s_t)=\sum_z\mathbb P(z_t=z\mid s_t)\,\mathbb P(s_{t+1}\mid z_t=z)P(st+1​∣st​)=∑z​P(zt​=z∣st​)P(st+1​∣zt​=z) (Zhu, Li, Wang & Zhang, arXiv:1907.00113, §1.1). Zhu, Li, Wang and Zhang show that a low-rank transition matrix can be estimated from a trajectory whose length is proportional to ppp (up to logarithmic factors), and they give two maximum-likelihood estimators with explicit rates. This mission formalizes the rate of the second, rank-constrained, estimator in Kullback–Leibler divergence.

Setting

Let X0,X1,…,XnX_0,X_1,\dots,X_nX0​,X1​,…,Xn​ be a Markov chain on the states [p]={s1,…,sp}[p]=\{s_1,\dots,s_p\}[p]={s1​,…,sp​} with transition matrix PPP (Pij≥0P_{ij}\ge0Pij​≥0, ∑jPij=1\sum_jP_{ij}=1∑j​Pij​=1, Pij=P(X1=sj∣X0=si)P_{ij}=\mathbb P(X_1=s_j\mid X_0=s_i)Pij​=P(X1​=sj​∣X0​=si​)) and stationary distribution π\piπ (π⊤P=π⊤\pi^\top P=\pi^\topπ⊤P=π⊤). The chain is primitive (some power of PPP has all entries positive), and X0X_0X0​ is drawn from π\piπ. Write πmin⁡=min⁡jπj\pi_{\min}=\min_j\pi_jπmin​=minj​πj​ and πmax⁡=max⁡jπj\pi_{\max}=\max_j\pi_jπmax​=maxj​πj​.

The right spectral gap is 1−ρ+1-\rho_+1−ρ+​, where, with ⟨h1,h2⟩π=∑jh1jh2jπj\langle h_1,h_2\rangle_\pi=\sum_jh_{1j}h_{2j}\pi_j⟨h1​,h2​⟩π​=∑j​h1j​h2j​πj​ and the adjoint P∗=Diag(π)−1P⊤Diag(π)P^*=\mathrm{Diag}(\pi)^{-1}P^\top\mathrm{Diag}(\pi)P∗=Diag(π)−1P⊤Diag(π),

ρ+=sup⁡⟨h,1⟩π=0, ⟨h,h⟩π=112⟨(P+P∗)h,h⟩π.\rho_+=\sup_{\langle h,1\rangle_\pi=0,\ \langle h,h\rangle_\pi=1}\tfrac12\langle(P+P^*)h,h\rangle_\pi .ρ+​=⟨h,1⟩π​=0, ⟨h,h⟩π​=1sup​21​⟨(P+P∗)h,h⟩π​.

The KL divergence of a transition matrix QQQ from PPP is DKL(P,Q)=∑i,jπiPijlog⁡(Pij/Qij)1{Pij≠0}D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)=\sum_{i,j}\pi_iP_{ij}\log(P_{ij}/Q_{ij})1_{\{P_{ij}\ne0\}}DKL​(P,Q)=∑i,j​πi​Pij​log(Pij​/Qij​)1{Pij​=0}​. From the trajectory, nijn_{ij}nij​ counts the transitions si→sjs_i\to s_jsi​→sj​, and the averaged negative log-likelihood is ℓn(Q)=−1n∑i,jnijlog⁡Qij\ell_n(Q)=-\frac1n\sum_{i,j}n_{ij}\log Q_{ij}ℓn​(Q)=−n1​∑i,j​nij​logQij​. The empirical KL divergence is D~KL(P,Q)=ℓn(Q)−ℓn(P)\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)=\ell_n(Q)-\ell_n(P)DKL​(P,Q)=ℓn​(Q)−ℓn​(P).

Assumption 1 of the paper: rank⁡(P)=r\operatorname{rank}(P)=rrank(P)=r, and Pjk∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p]P_{jk}\in\{0\}\cup[\alpha/p,\beta/p]Pjk​∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p] for constants α,β>0\alpha,\beta>0α,β>0. The (α/p)(\alpha/p)(α/p)-minoration (Remark 2) removes the 000: α/p≤Pjk≤β/p\alpha/p\le P_{jk}\le\beta/pα/p≤Pjk​≤β/p for all j,kj,kj,k. The rank-constrained MLE (5) is any

P^r∈arg⁡min⁡{ℓn(Q): Q1p=1p, α/p≤Qij≤β/p, rank⁡(Q)≤r}.\widehat P^r\in\arg\min\big\{\ell_n(Q):\ Q1_p=1_p,\ \alpha/p\le Q_{ij}\le\beta/p,\ \operatorname{rank}(Q)\le r\big\}.Pr∈argmin{ℓn​(Q): Q1p​=1p​, α/p≤Qij​≤β/p, rank(Q)≤r}.

In Lean these objects are IsStochastic, IsStationary, IsPrimitive, piMin, piMax, trajProb, rhoPlus, klDiv, negLogLik, empKL, Assumption1, Minorated, RankFeasible and IsRankMLE in the namespace LowRankMarkov.RankMLE.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, KL display (p. 10)

There are universal constants C1,C2>0C_1,C_2>0C1​,C2​>0 such that, for p≥2p\ge2p≥2, under minoration with rank⁡P=r\operatorname{rank}P=rrankP=r and nπmax⁡(1−ρ+)>max⁡(20log⁡p,log⁡n)n\pi_{\max}(1-\rho_+)>\max(20\log p,\log n)nπmax​(1−ρ+​)>max(20logp,logn), every rank-constrained MLE satisfies, for all ξ>0\xi>0ξ>0,

P{DKL(P,P^r)≥max⁡(C1rπmax⁡β2plog⁡pπmin⁡α3n, ξπmin⁡rpπmax⁡log⁡p)}≤C2e−ξ.\mathbb P\Big\{D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\ge\max\Big(\frac{C_1r\pi_{\max}\beta^2p\log p}{\pi_{\min}\alpha^3n},\ \frac{\xi\pi_{\min}}{rp\pi_{\max}\log p}\Big)\Big\}\le C_2e^{-\xi}.P{DKL​(P,Pr)≥max(πmin​α3nC1​rπmax​β2plogp​, rpπmax​logpξπmin​​)}≤C2​e−ξ.

The constants are not fixed numerically, so a sharper analysis does not invalidate the goal.

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.1, both forms: DKL(u,v)≥pα2β2∥u−v∥22D_{\mathrm{KL}}(u,v)\ge\frac{p\alpha}{2\beta^2}\|u-v\|_2^2DKL​(u,v)≥2β2pα​∥u−v∥22​ for distributions with uj∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p]u_j\in\{0\}\cup[\alpha/p,\beta/p]uj​∈{0}∪[α/p,β/p], vj∈[α/p,β/p]v_j\in[\alpha/p,\beta/p]vj​∈[α/p,β/p], and its matrix form ∥P−Q∥F2≤2β2απmin⁡pDKL(P,Q)\|P-Q\|_F^2\le\frac{2\beta^2}{\alpha\pi_{\min}p}D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)∥P−Q∥F2​≤απmin​p2β2​DKL​(P,Q).
  2. The rank remark (p. 14): rank⁡(P^r−P)≤2r\operatorname{rank}(\widehat P^r-P)\le2rrank(Pr−P)≤2r and ∥P^r−P∥∗≤(2r)1/2∥P^r−P∥F\|\widehat P^r-P\|_*\le(2r)^{1/2}\|\widehat P^r-P\|_F∥Pr−P∥∗​≤(2r)1/2∥Pr−P∥F​.
  3. (EC.14): on the shell Q∈C(η)Q\in\mathcal C(\eta)Q∈C(η), l≥1l\ge1l≥1 and 2l−1η≤DKL(P,Q)≤2lη2^{l-1}\eta\le D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\le2^l\eta2l−1η≤DKL​(P,Q)≤2lη, ∥Q−P∥∗≤2β(2lηr/(pαπmin⁡))1/2\|Q-P\|_*\le2\beta(2^l\eta r/(p\alpha\pi_{\min}))^{1/2}∥Q−P∥∗​≤2β(2lηr/(pαπmin​))1/2.
  4. (EC.15), (EC.17): Bernstein-type tails p−(ξ−1)p^{-(\xi-1)}p−(ξ−1) for Wn(1)=max⁡j∑i≤nPXi−1,jW^{(1)}_n=\max_j\sum_{i\le n}P_{X_{i-1},j}Wn(1)​=maxj​∑i≤n​PXi−1​,j​ and Wn(2)=max⁡j∑i≤n1{Xi−1=sj}W^{(2)}_n=\max_j\sum_{i\le n}1_{\{X_{i-1}=s_j\}}Wn(2)​=maxj​∑i≤n​1{Xi−1​=sj​}​.
  5. Lemma 3: with probability at least 1−C2exp⁡(−ηπmax⁡rplog⁡p/πmin⁡)1-C_2\exp(-\eta\pi_{\max}rp\log p/\pi_{\min})1−C2​exp(−ηπmax​rplogp/πmin​), ∣D~KL(P,Q)−DKL(P,Q)∣≤12DKL(P,Q)+C1πmax⁡β2rplog⁡p/(πmin⁡α3n)|\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)-D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)|\le\frac12D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)+C_1\pi_{\max}\beta^2rp\log p/(\pi_{\min}\alpha^3n)∣DKL​(P,Q)−DKL​(P,Q)∣≤21​DKL​(P,Q)+C1​πmax​β2rplogp/(πmin​α3n) for every Q∈CQ\in\mathcal CQ∈C with DKL(P,Q)≥ηD_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\ge\etaDKL​(P,Q)≥η.
  6. (EC.3): D~KL(P,P^r)≤0\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\le0DKL​(P,Pr)≤0. Together with DKL(P,P^r)=L(P^r)−L(P)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)=\mathcal L(\widehat P^r)-\mathcal L(P)DKL​(P,Pr)=L(Pr)−L(P) it gives (EC.4), DKL(P,P^r)≤DKL(P,P^r)−D~KL(P,P^r)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)\le D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)-\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,\widehat P^r)DKL​(P,Pr)≤DKL​(P,Pr)−DKL​(P,Pr).

Significance

The bound says that, with high probability, the KL error of P^r\widehat P^rPr is of order rplog⁡p/nrp\log p/nrplogp/n up to the factors πmax⁡/πmin⁡\pi_{\max}/\pi_{\min}πmax​/πmin​ and β2/α3\beta^2/\alpha^3β2/α3, plus a term independent of nnn controlled by ξ\xiξ. A trajectory of length of order rplog⁡prp\log prplogp, rather than p2p^2p2, therefore suffices: the low rank is what makes the estimation problem sample-efficient. Lemma EC.1 converts the KL bound into a Frobenius-norm bound, and Lemma 3 is a uniform law for the empirical KL process of a dependent sequence over the paper’s cone class.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. The mission asks for a formal proof of the KL display. Two points need care beyond transcription: the printed hypotheses do not suffice (see Formalization scope), and the paper's proof of Lemma 3 symmetrizes the dependent summands as if they were independent (EC.8), so a formal proof must supply a valid argument for that step.

Difficulty

Comparing ℓn(P^r)\ell_n(\widehat P^r)ℓn​(Pr) with ℓn(P)\ell_n(P)ℓn​(P) is immediate; the difficulty is to control D~KL−DKL\widetilde D_{\mathrm{KL}}-D_{\mathrm{KL}}DKL​−DKL​ uniformly over a non-convex set of matrices, from one dependent trajectory. A union bound over a net of the feasible set loses polynomial factors in ppp, and i.i.d. empirical-process tools do not apply directly to a Markov chain. The printed Lemma 3 covers the cone class C\mathcal CC, while the appendix proof restricts its shells to rank-rrr matrices. This leaves a gap for matrices in C\mathcal CC of higher rank and for the claimed application to P^r\widehat P^rPr when r>16r>16r>16. The paper combines a tail inequality for suprema of empirical processes of Markov chains (Adamczak 2008), a contraction step, the matrix Freedman inequality (Tropp 2011) for a matrix martingale, and a Bernstein inequality for Markov chains with a spectral gap (Jiang, Fan & Sun 2018) for the quadratic variations Wn(1),Wn(2)W^{(1)}_n,W^{(2)}_nWn(1)​,Wn(2)​. None of these is in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

States are Fin p, matrices Matrix (Fin p) (Fin p) ℝ, logarithms natural. A trajectory x=(X0,…,Xn)x=(X_0,\dots,X_n)x=(X0​,…,Xn​) makes nnn transitions, and its probability is π(x0)∏k<nPxkxk+1\pi(x_0)\prod_{k<n}P_{x_kx_{k+1}}π(x0​)∏k<n​Pxk​xk+1​​; probabilities of events are finite sums, so no measure theory is needed. ρ+\rho_+ρ+​ is a real sSup; "ρ+<1\rho_+<1ρ+​<1" is not built into its definition. The nuclear and Frobenius norms come from the published definition CaiCandesShen.Convergence.Basic.

Hypotheses fixed relative to the page:

  • Minoration instead of Assumption 1(ii), in the goal and (EC.3). The printed Theorem 2 allows Pjk=0P_{jk}=0Pjk​=0, and it is false then. For even ppp, let rows 1,…,p/21,\dots,p/21,…,p/2 of PPP equal 2/p2/p2/p on columns p/2+1,…,pp/2+1,\dots,pp/2+1,…,p and 000 elsewhere, and rows p/2+1,…,pp/2+1,\dots,pp/2+1,…,p equal 1/p1/p1/p. Then rank⁡P=2\operatorname{rank}P=2rankP=2, α=1\alpha=1α=1, β=2\beta=2β=2, ρ+=0\rho_+=0ρ+​=0, π\piπ puts mass 1/31/31/3 on the first half and πmax⁡/πmin⁡=2\pi_{\max}/\pi_{\min}=2πmax​/πmin​=2. Every feasible QQQ has Qij≥1/pQ_{ij}\ge1/pQij​≥1/p, so on each of the first p/2p/2p/2 rows QQQ puts mass at most 1/21/21/2 on the support of PPP, and DKL(P,Q)≥13log⁡2D_{\mathrm{KL}}(P,Q)\ge\frac13\log2DKL​(P,Q)≥31​log2. With ξ=0.9 plog⁡p\xi=0.9\,p\log pξ=0.9plogp the threshold is below 13log⁡2\frac13\log231​log2 for all large nnn, so the probability is 111, while C2e−ξ<1C_2e^{-\xi}<1C2​e−ξ<1 for large ppp. The broken step is (EC.3), which needs PPP feasible for (5); minoration with rank⁡P=r\operatorname{rank}P=rrankP=r makes it feasible. Lemma EC.1, (EC.14), (EC.15), (EC.17) and Lemma 3 keep the printed Assumption 1.
  • X0∼πX_0\sim\piX0​∼π, stated in Theorem 1 and used by the proof of Theorem 2 through Lemma 3.
  • Ergodic is read as primitive; πi>0\pi_i>0πi​>0 is stated (it is implied); p≥2p\ge2p≥2 keeps log⁡p>0\log p>0logp>0 in denominators.
  • Lemma 3's set is the printed C(η)\mathcal C(\eta)C(η), whose cone is ∥Q−P∥∗≤4×21/2∥Q−P∥F\|Q-P\|_*\le4\times2^{1/2}\|Q-P\|_F∥Q−P∥∗​≤4×21/2∥Q−P∥F​ and which has no rank constraint. The appendix proof uses rank-restricted shells; for r>16r>16r>16 the rank remark alone does not place P^r\widehat P^rPr in C\mathcal CC. This is a proof gap, while the formal statement retains the page's quantification.
  • Lemma EC.1's matrix form and (EC.14) include the printed cone condition. (EC.14) is stated pointwise for members of Cl\mathcal C_lCl​.

The statements rule out trivializing readings: C1,C2C_1,C_2C1​,C2​ are quantified before all data; the goal holds for every selection of minimizers, not for one fixed estimator; p≥2p\ge2p≥2 and π>0\pi>0π>0 exclude the junk values x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 and log⁡1=0\log1=0log1=0 that would collapse the thresholds; a sorry-free check shows the goal's hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (p=2p=2p=2, uniform PPP, n=28n=28n=28).

Not posed: Theorem 1 (nuclear-norm MLE), the Frobenius display of Theorem 2 (Lemma EC.1 turns the KL threshold into twice the printed Frobenius threshold, so the paper's one-line derivation gives C2e−ξ/2C_2e^{-\xi/2}C2​e−ξ/2), Theorem 3 (lower bound), and the DC-programming results of §4. Useful reusable contributions: a Bernstein inequality for finite Markov chains with a spectral gap, the matrix Freedman inequality, and the reverse-Pinsker bound of Lemma EC.1.

Selected references

  • Z. Zhu, X. Li, M. Wang, A. R. Zhang, Learning Markov models via low-rank optimization, Operations Research, 2022; preprint arXiv:1907.00113v2, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.00113
  • B. Jiang, J. Fan, Q. Sun, Bernstein's inequality for general Markov chains, arXiv:1805.10721, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10721
  • J. A. Tropp, Freedman's inequality for matrix martingales, Electronic Communications in Probability 16:262–270, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.3039
  • R. Adamczak, A tail inequality for suprema of unbounded empirical processes with applications to Markov chains, Electronic Journal of Probability 13(34):1000–1034, 2008. https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.3110
  • J. A. Fill, Eigenvalue bounds on convergence to stationarity for nonreversible Markov chains, with an application to the exclusion process, The Annals of Applied Probability 1(1):62–87, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005981
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

“Un”Fair Machine Learning Algorithms: With Endogenous Learning Effort, Equal Treatment Accepts a Larger Share of the Protected Group's Good Candidates than Equal Opportunity in a Risky MarketResearch Paper

Motivation

Lenders, employers and insurers increasingly screen applicants with learned scores, and regulators and the fair machine learning literature ask that such screening be fair across demographic groups. Two notions are standard. Equal treatment (ET) asks that the same decision rule be applied to everyone, regardless of group; the paper notes that it is what the law currently requires. Equal opportunity (EO), proposed by Hardt, Price and Srebro (2016), asks instead that qualified applicants be accepted at the same rate in every group. EO is often presented as the notion that protects a disadvantaged group better, because it corrects for differences in how well the screening technology separates good from bad applicants in each group.

Most analyses of these notions take the classifier as given. Fu, Aseri, Singh and Srinivasan point out that a profit-maximizing firm also chooses how much to invest in learning, and that a fairness constraint changes that choice. Their Theorem 2 identifies a regime in which, once the firm's learning response is taken into account, EO accepts no larger a share of the protected group's qualified applicants than ET does. The result is a short, fully explicit comparative-statics statement about a parametric model, which makes it a natural target for formal verification.

Setting

A bank screens loan candidates from two groups of equal (unit) size: a protected group ppp and a regular group rrr. A good candidate repays and earns the bank α>0\alpha>0α>0; a bad candidate defaults and costs it β>0\beta>0β>0. The proportions of bad candidates are dpd_pdp​ and drd_rdr​, with 0<dr<dp<10<d_r<d_p<10<dr​<dp​<1, and the expected profit and loss per group are

αp=α(1−dp),βp=βdp,αr=α(1−dr),βr=βdr,\alpha_p=\alpha(1-d_p),\quad \beta_p=\beta d_p,\quad \alpha_r=\alpha(1-d_r),\quad \beta_r=\beta d_r,αp​=α(1−dp​),βp​=βdp​,αr​=α(1−dr​),βr​=βdr​,

with the paper's assumption βr≥αr\beta_r\ge\alpha_rβr​≥αr​ (hence βp>αp\beta_p>\alpha_pβp​>αp​).

The bank chooses a learning effort s∈[0,1/(2γr)]s\in[0,1/(2\gamma_r)]s∈[0,1/(2γr​)]. In group A∈{p,r}A\in\{p,r\}A∈{p,r}, scores of bad candidates are uniform on [0,1−γAs][0,1-\gamma_A s][0,1−γA​s] and scores of good candidates uniform on [γAs,1][\gamma_A s,1][γA​s,1], where the learning rates satisfy 0<γp<γr0<\gamma_p<\gamma_r0<γp​<γr​: learning separates the regular group faster. The bank accepts a candidate of group AAA whose score exceeds a threshold cA∈[0,1]c_A\in[0,1]cA​∈[0,1], and pays the learning cost τ(s)=ks/(1−γrs)\tau(s)=ks/(1-\gamma_r s)τ(s)=ks/(1−γr​s). Its profit π(cp,cr,s)\pi(c_p,c_r,s)π(cp​,cr​,s) is equation (1) of the paper: expected profit from accepted good candidates minus expected loss from accepted bad candidates, summed over the two groups, minus τ(s)\tau(s)τ(s).

The coverage rate of group AAA is the fraction of its good candidates that are accepted,

ϕA=min⁡{1−cA1−γAs,1}.\phi_A=\min\Big\{\frac{1-c_A}{1-\gamma_A s},1\Big\}.ϕA​=min{1−γA​s1−cA​​,1}.

Under ET the bank must use cp=crc_p=c_rcp​=cr​; under EO it must equalize the coverage rates, 1−cr1−γrs=1−cp1−γps\frac{1-c_r}{1-\gamma_r s}=\frac{1-c_p}{1-\gamma_p s}1−γr​s1−cr​​=1−γp​s1−cp​​ (equation (6)). Writing (cC,sC)(c^{C},s^{C})(cC,sC) for the bank's optimal decision under constraint C∈{ET,EO}C\in\{ET,EO\}C∈{ET,EO}, the quantity of interest is ϕpC\phi^{C}_pϕpC​, the protected coverage rate at that optimum.

The paper focuses on the low-loss case βp≤αp+αr\beta_p\le\alpha_p+\alpha_rβp​≤αp​+αr​ (case (1), p. 17) and on learning costs in a middle range: with

A=αpγr−βpγr+βpγp,ρ=12−γp/γr,A=\alpha_p\gamma_r-\beta_p\gamma_r+\beta_p\gamma_p,\qquad \rho=\frac{1}{2-\gamma_p/\gamma_r},A=αp​γr​−βp​γr​+βp​γp​,ρ=2−γp​/γr​1​,

it assumes k=αrγr+σ2Ak=\alpha_r\gamma_r+\sigma^2Ak=αr​γr​+σ2A with σ∈[ρ,1)\sigma\in[\rho,1)σ∈[ρ,1), so that learning is neither so cheap that it separates perfectly nor so expensive that the market fails.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 23)

Under the standing assumptions, the low-loss case and the cost range above, if

αpβp≤1−1−(2−σ)2σ2(1−σ2)(2−σ)2⋅γpγr,\frac{\alpha_p}{\beta_p}\le 1-\frac{1-(2-\sigma)^2\sigma^2}{(1-\sigma^2)(2-\sigma)^2}\cdot\frac{\gamma_p}{\gamma_r},βp​αp​​≤1−(1−σ2)(2−σ)21−(2−σ)2σ2​⋅γr​γp​​,

then for every optimal ET decision and every optimal EO decision

ϕpET ≥ ϕpEO.\phi^{ET}_p\ \ge\ \phi^{EO}_p .ϕpET​ ≥ ϕpEO​.

Milestones

  1. Threshold reductions (eqs. (4), (10), case (1), pp. 15–17). For each effort sss, the optimal ET threshold is 1−γrs1-\gamma_r s1−γr​s and the optimal EO thresholds are cp=1−γrs(1−γps)/(1−γrs)c_p=1-\gamma_r s(1-\gamma_p s)/(1-\gamma_r s)cp​=1−γr​s(1−γp​s)/(1−γr​s), cr=1−γrsc_r=1-\gamma_r scr​=1−γr​s; the resulting profits are explicit functions πET(s)\pi_{ET}(s)πET​(s) and πEO(s)\pi_{EO}(s)πEO​(s).
  2. Unimodality (proof of Theorem 1, p. 43) of πET\pi_{ET}πET​ and πEO\pi_{EO}πEO​ on [0,1/(2γr)][0,1/(2\gamma_r)][0,1/(2γr​)], and an interior optimum (p. 23): the optimal efforts exist, are positive, and sEO<1/(2γr)s^{EO}<1/(2\gamma_r)sEO<1/(2γr​).
  3. Closed forms (eqs. (51), (52), p. 44):
ϕpET=γrγr−γp[1−(k−αrγrA)1/2],ϕpEO=γrγr−γp[(βpγpk−αrγr+βpγr−αpγr)1/2−1].\phi^{ET}_p=\frac{\gamma_r}{\gamma_r-\gamma_p}\Big[1-\Big(\frac{k-\alpha_r\gamma_r}{A}\Big)^{1/2}\Big],\qquad \phi^{EO}_p=\frac{\gamma_r}{\gamma_r-\gamma_p}\Big[\Big(\frac{\beta_p\gamma_p}{k-\alpha_r\gamma_r+\beta_p\gamma_r-\alpha_p\gamma_r}\Big)^{1/2}-1\Big].ϕpET​=γr​−γp​γr​​[1−(Ak−αr​γr​​)1/2],ϕpEO​=γr​−γp​γr​​[(k−αr​γr​+βp​γr​−αp​γr​βp​γp​​)1/2−1].
  1. The difference in σ\sigmaσ (eqs. (53)–(54)) and the sufficient condition (eqs. (55)–(59), p. 45): under the hypothesis of Theorem 2, (βpγp/(σ2βpγp+(1−σ2)(βpγr−αpγr)))1/2≤2−σ\big(\beta_p\gamma_p/(\sigma^2\beta_p\gamma_p+(1-\sigma^2)(\beta_p\gamma_r-\alpha_p\gamma_r))\big)^{1/2}\le 2-\sigma(βp​γp​/(σ2βp​γp​+(1−σ2)(βp​γr​−αp​γr​)))1/2≤2−σ.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the paper's main statement about the protected group. It says that a constraint designed to raise the protected group's acceptance of qualified applicants can fail to do so once the firm re-optimizes its investment in learning: when lending to the protected group is risky enough relative to its return, the EO-constrained firm learns less, and the protected group's coverage rate is no higher than under ET. The paper uses it, together with its Theorem 3 on success rates, to argue that the choice between fairness notions should account for endogenous learning, and it explains the condition's dependence on the learning-efficiency gap γr−γp\gamma_r-\gamma_pγr​−γp​ and the expected loss βp−αp\beta_p-\alpha_pβp​−αp​.

The result is proved in the paper by first-order conditions and algebra. It has not been formalized. The formalization adds a machine-checked passage from the bank's joint optimization over thresholds and effort, with the piecewise-linear profit (1), to the closed-form comparison: the threshold reductions and the existence and location of the optimal efforts are asserted in the paper with little or no argument, and the mission makes each of them an explicit, checked statement.

Difficulty

The algebra of (53)–(59) is short. The work lies upstream of it. The profit (1) is a sum of min and max terms, and its maximization over thresholds must be carried out case by case on the positions of ccc relative to the four breakpoints γps<γrs≤1−γrs<1−γps\gamma_p s<\gamma_r s\le 1-\gamma_r s<1-\gamma_p sγp​s<γr​s≤1−γr​s<1−γp​s; under EO the thresholds are further tied by constraint (6). The first-order conditions (47)–(48) identify the optimal efforts only once unimodality and interiority are established, and these hold only in the stated cost range: at its endpoint σ=ρ\sigma=\rhoσ=ρ the ET optimum sits exactly at the boundary 1/(2γr)1/(2\gamma_r)1/(2γr​). Substituting the closed forms (51)–(52) directly into the conclusion skips all of this and is not the theorem.

Formalization scope

Everything is real-valued and lives in the namespace UnfairML.Coverage. One definitions file holds the parameters (Params: α,β,dp,dr,γp,γr\alpha,\beta,d_p,d_r,\gamma_p,\gamma_rα,β,dp​,dr​,γp​,γr​), the derived quantities, the standing assumptions (Standing), the low-loss case (LowLoss), the cost τ\tauτ, profit (1), the coverage rate, the EO constraint (6), the optimality predicates IsOptET and IsOptEO, the reduced profits πET,πEO\pi_{ET},\pi_{EO}πET​,πEO​ of case (1), and the cost range CostRange.

Conventions committed to:

  • effort ranges over the closed interval [0,1/(2γr)][0,1/(2\gamma_r)][0,1/(2γr​)] of Appendix A, not the half-open interval of §3.1 (on the half-open interval the ET problem has no optimum at σ=ρ\sigma=\rhoσ=ρ);
  • thresholds range over [0,1][0,1][0,1], and every optimality quantifier is restricted to these boxes, where all denominators 1−γs1-\gamma s1−γs are at least 1/21/21/2;
  • α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β>0\beta>0β>0 are added to the paper's standing assumptions;
  • the goal quantifies over all optimal decisions of the joint problem, with the coverage rate read off the optimal threshold and effort;
  • two misprints are corrected and labelled: the unmatched parenthesis in Theorem 2's bound is read as 1−(2−σ)2σ21-(2-\sigma)^2\sigma^21−(2−σ)2σ2, as in (56), and the prefactor of (54) is γr/(γr−γp)\gamma_r/(\gamma_r-\gamma_p)γr​/(γr​−γp​), as in (53).

A goal stated about maximizers of πET,πEO\pi_{ET},\pi_{EO}πET​,πEO​, or with (51)–(52) substituted, would be a different and much weaker statement and is ruled out. The cost range is satisfiable only when A>0A>0A>0; a sorry-free check that all hypotheses of the goal hold together for an explicit rational instance accompanies the development.

No Mathlib extension is needed beyond real analysis on intervals (monotonicity from derivatives, IsMaxOn). Contributions are welcome at every milestone; the threshold reductions are self-contained piecewise-linear arguments and a natural starting point.

Selected references

  • R. Fu, M. Aseri, P. V. Singh, K. Srinivasan, “Un”Fair Machine Learning Algorithms, SSRN working paper 3408275 (version of 25 Mar 2021); published in Management Science. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3408275 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4065
  • M. Hardt, E. Price, N. Srebro, Equality of Opportunity in Supervised Learning, NeurIPS 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.02413
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Interpretable Optimal Stopping: For Trees of Bounded Depth, the Optimal SAA Value of Tree Policies Converges Almost Surely to the Optimal Tree-Policy ValueResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal stopping asks when to halt a stochastic process so as to maximize an expected reward. Examples are exercising an American option, selling an asset, or ending a clinical trial. The optimal policy is the solution of a dynamic program over the whole state space. In high dimension it cannot be computed exactly, and the usual approximations (regression on basis functions, as in Longstaff–Schwartz) produce policies that are hard to read: a decision maker cannot see why the policy stops in a given state.

Ciocan and Mišić (Interpretable Optimal Stopping, Management Science 2022; arXiv:1812.07211) propose to restrict the search to tree policies. These are binary decision trees whose split nodes compare one state variable with a threshold and whose leaves say stop or go. The tree is fitted by maximizing the average reward over a finite set of simulated trajectories, which is a sample average approximation (SAA) of the true problem. This mission formalizes the consistency guarantee that justifies the method: as the number of trajectories grows, the optimal SAA value over trees of bounded depth converges almost surely to the optimal true value over the same trees.

Setting

The state of the system is a vector x∈X=X1×⋯×Xn⊆Rn\mathbf x\in\mathcal X=\mathcal X_1\times\cdots\times\mathcal X_n\subseteq\mathbb R^nx∈X=X1​×⋯×Xn​⊆Rn. The process x(1),…,x(T)\mathbf x(1),\dots,\mathbf x(T)x(1),…,x(T) runs for TTT periods and starts at a fixed state x(1)=xˉ\mathbf x(1)=\bar{\mathbf x}x(1)=xˉ. Stopping in period ttt in state x\mathbf xx pays g(t,x)g(t,\mathbf x)g(t,x), and rewards are discounted by a factor β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] per period.

A stationary policy is a map π:X→{stop,go}\pi:\mathcal X\to\{\mathbf{stop},\mathbf{go}\}π:X→{stop,go}. Its stopping time on a path is τπ=min⁡{t:π(x(t))=stop}\tau_\pi=\min\{t:\pi(\mathbf x(t))=\mathbf{stop}\}τπ​=min{t:π(x(t))=stop}, and τπ=+∞\tau_\pi=+\inftyτπ​=+∞ if the policy never stops. Its value is

Jπ(xˉ)=E[βτπ−1g(τπ,x(τπ))],J^\pi(\bar{\mathbf x})=\mathbb E\big[\beta^{\tau_\pi-1}g(\tau_\pi,\mathbf x(\tau_\pi))\big],Jπ(xˉ)=E[βτπ​−1g(τπ​,x(τπ​))],

where a path on which π\piπ never stops earns 000. Given trajectories x(ω,⋅)\mathbf x(\omega,\cdot)x(ω,⋅) for ω=1,…,Ω\omega=1,\dots,\Omegaω=1,…,Ω, the sample-average value J^π(xˉ)\hat J^\pi(\bar{\mathbf x})J^π(xˉ) is the average of the same discounted reward over the Ω\OmegaΩ trajectories.

A tree policy π(⋅;T,v,θ,a)\pi(\cdot;\mathcal T,\mathbf v,\boldsymbol\theta,\mathbf a)π(⋅;T,v,θ,a) is given by four things:

  • a binary tree topology T\mathcal TT;
  • for each split node sss, a split variable index v(s)v(s)v(s);
  • for each split node sss, a real split point θs\theta_sθs​;
  • for each leaf ℓ\ellℓ, an action a(ℓ)a(\ell)a(ℓ).

A state descends to the left child of sss when xv(s)≤θsx_{v(s)}\le\theta_sxv(s)​≤θs​ and to the right child otherwise, and receives the action of the leaf it reaches. Πtree(d)\Pi_{\mathrm{tree}}(d)Πtree​(d) is the class of tree policies of depth at most ddd. Once ddd is fixed, the skeletons (T,v,a)(\mathcal T,\mathbf v,\mathbf a)(T,v,a) form a finite set, but the split points θ∈Rsplits\boldsymbol\theta\in\mathbb R^{\mathbf{splits}}θ∈Rsplits range over a continuum.

The paper's standing assumptions are:

  1. Assumption 1: X\mathcal XX is totally bounded and ∥x−y∥∞≤1\|\mathbf x-\mathbf y\|_\infty\le1∥x−y∥∞​≤1 on X\mathcal XX.
  2. Assumption 2: 0≤g(t,x)≤G0\le g(t,\mathbf x)\le G0≤g(t,x)≤G for all ttt and x∈X\mathbf x\in\mathcal Xx∈X.
  3. Assumption 3: there is a function fff, strictly increasing and continuous with f(0)=0f(0)=0f(0)=0, such that Pr⁡[x(t)∈A]≤f(λ(A))\Pr[\mathbf x(t)\in A]\le f(\lambda(A))Pr[x(t)∈A]≤f(λ(A)) for every period 1<t≤T1<t\le T1<t≤T, where λ\lambdaλ is Lebesgue measure.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1 (p. 10)

Fix a depth ddd and ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0. With probability one there is a finite Ω0\Omega_0Ω0​ such that for all Ω≥Ω0\Omega\ge\Omega_0Ω≥Ω0​,

∣sup⁡π∈Πtree(d)Jπ(xˉ)−sup⁡π∈Πtree(d)J^π(xˉ)∣≤ϵ.\Big|\sup_{\pi\in\Pi_{\mathrm{tree}}(d)}J^\pi(\bar{\mathbf x})-\sup_{\pi\in\Pi_{\mathrm{tree}}(d)}\hat J^\pi(\bar{\mathbf x})\Big|\le\epsilon.​π∈Πtree​(d)sup​Jπ(xˉ)−π∈Πtree​(d)sup​J^π(xˉ)​≤ϵ.

This is the paper's headline consistency result: the optimal SAA value converges almost surely to the optimal tree-policy value.

Milestones

  1. Slab bound (proof of Lemma EC.2, p. ec3): Pr⁡[xv(s)(t)∈[min⁡{θ1s,θ2s},max⁡{θ1s,θ2s}]]≤f(∣θ1s−θ2s∣)\Pr[x_{v(s)}(t)\in[\min\{\theta_{1s},\theta_{2s}\},\max\{\theta_{1s},\theta_{2s}\}]]\le f(|\theta_{1s}-\theta_{2s}|)Pr[xv(s)​(t)∈[min{θ1s​,θ2s​},max{θ1s​,θ2s​}]]≤f(∣θ1s​−θ2s​∣) for t>1t>1t>1.
  2. Lemma EC.2: if two split-point vectors give the same skeleton and both continue at xˉ\bar{\mathbf x}xˉ, then ∣Jπθ1−Jπθ2∣≤GT∑sf(∣θ1,s−θ2,s∣)|J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta_1}}-J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta_2}}|\le GT\sum_{s}f(|\theta_{1,s}-\theta_{2,s}|)∣Jπθ1​​−Jπθ2​​∣≤GT∑s​f(∣θ1,s​−θ2,s​∣).
  3. Lemma EC.3: the deterministic sample analogue, ∣J^πθ1−J^πθ2∣≤GΩ∑ω∑t≠1∑sI{xv(s)(ω,t)∈slabs}|\hat J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta_1}}-\hat J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta_2}}|\le\frac G\Omega\sum_\omega\sum_{t\ne1}\sum_s\mathbb I\{x_{v(s)}(\omega,t)\in\text{slab}_s\}∣J^πθ1​​−J^πθ2​​∣≤ΩG​∑ω​∑t=1​∑s​I{xv(s)​(ω,t)∈slabs​}.
  4. Fixed-policy strong law (EC.1.1, p. ec1): for one tree policy, J^π→Jπ\hat J^\pi\to J^\piJ^π→Jπ almost surely.
  5. Lemma EC.1: for one skeleton, almost surely sup⁡θ∣Jπθ−J^πθ∣≤ϵ\sup_{\boldsymbol\theta}|J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta}}-\hat J^{\pi_{\boldsymbol\theta}}|\le\epsilonsupθ​∣Jπθ​−J^πθ​∣≤ϵ for all large Ω\OmegaΩ.
  6. Theorem 1 (p. 10): the same, uniformly over all of Πtree(d)\Pi_{\mathrm{tree}}(d)Πtree​(d).

Significance

Corollary 1 is what makes the SAA tree-fitting procedure a consistent estimator of the best interpretable policy. A decision maker who optimizes a depth-ddd tree on enough simulated trajectories obtains an in-sample value that approximates, to any precision, the true value achievable by depth-ddd trees. The paper also shows (Section EC.1.2) that the conclusion fails when the depth is unbounded, so the depth restriction is part of the result and not a convenience. Theorem 1, the uniform law behind it, has its own uses: it also controls the out-of-sample value of the SAA-optimal tree.

The results are proved in the paper's electronic companion. To our knowledge they have no machine-checked proof. Formalizing them yields a reusable model of finite-horizon stopping with stationary policies and decision-tree policies, and a uniform strong law for a class of indicator-type functionals that is discontinuous in its parameters. The latter is a pattern that recurs in empirical-risk results for trees and threshold rules.

Difficulty

The strong law gives convergence for one policy at a time, outside a null set that depends on the policy. Uncountably many split points mean uncountably many null sets, so the pointwise law does not yield Theorem 1. The usual fix, a Lipschitz or continuity argument in the parameter, fails because J^π\hat J^\piJ^π is a step function of θ\boldsymbol\thetaθ: moving one threshold past a sampled state changes a decision and the sample value jumps. The jumps of the true value must instead be controlled by the probability that the process visits the thin slab between two thresholds, which is where Assumption 3 enters. The jumps of the sample value must be controlled by the empirical frequency of such visits, uniformly in the thresholds. The first period is excluded throughout, because x(1)=xˉ\mathbf x(1)=\bar{\mathbf x}x(1)=xˉ is deterministic and Assumption 3 does not apply to it.

Formalization scope

  • States and paths. States are Fin n → ℝ, whose Mathlib norm is the sup norm ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​. Paths are Fin T → (Fin n → ℝ), and periods are 0-indexed (k : Fin T is period t=k+1t=k+1t=k+1, so βτ−1\beta^{\tau-1}βτ−1 is β ^ k).
  • The process. The process is its path law μ, a probability measure, with x(1)=xˉ\mathbf x(1)=\bar{\mathbf x}x(1)=xˉ and x(t)∈X\mathbf x(t)\in\mathcal Xx(t)∈X almost surely.
  • Rewards. β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] and the rewards g k are measurable. Both are readings of "discounted" and of the expectation on the page.
  • The sample. The sample is an i.i.d. sequence of random paths with law μ, measurable and mutually independent (iIndepFun). The page says only "trajectories of the process" and its proofs use the strong law. J^\hat JJ^ averages the first m samples, and "with probability one" is ∀ᵐ.
  • Assumption 3. It is imposed on measurable sets of finite Lebesgue measure. The printed codomain f:[0,∞)→[0,1]f:[0,\infty)\to[0,1]f:[0,∞)→[0,1] is dropped. As printed, the assumption cannot hold for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, T≥2T\ge2T≥2: a box containing X\mathcal XX has probability 111, which forces f≡1f\equiv1f≡1 on a half-line. Dropping the codomain costs nothing, because r↦f(r)+rr\mapsto f(r)+rr↦f(r)+r converts any admissible [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued fff.
  • Trees. A tree is an inductive skeleton with split variables Fin n and leaf actions. Split points are a function of the node address. A split sends ties left (xi≤θx_i\le\thetaxi​≤θ). A leaf has depth 000. Πtree(d)\Pi_{\mathrm{tree}}(d)Πtree​(d) is the type of (skeleton of depth ≤d\le d≤d, split points), and the suprema in Corollary 1 are real suprema over it. They are genuine suprema because the type is nonempty and the values are bounded in [0,G][0,G][0,G] (for J^\hat JJ^, almost surely).
  • Readings of the lemmas. Lemma EC.2 carries Assumption 1, which its proof uses, although its statement names only Assumptions 2 and 3. The page's "θ∈X\boldsymbol\theta\in\mathcal Xθ∈X" in Lemmas EC.1–EC.3 is read as θ∈Rsplits\boldsymbol\theta\in\mathbb R^{\mathbf{splits}}θ∈Rsplits, the stronger statement.

The statements cannot be met by a degenerate policy class or a junk value. JJJ is the expectation under the true law, J^\hat JJ^ the average over i.i.d. trajectories, and the suprema range over every tree of depth at most ddd with arbitrary real split points. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable with a nonconstant reward and a split that changes the action. One example is n=1n=1n=1, T=2T=2T=2, X=[0,1]\mathcal X=[0,1]X=[0,1], x(2)\mathbf x(2)x(2) uniform, g(t,x)=xg(t,x)=xg(t,x)=x and f(r)=rf(r)=rf(r)=r.

A complete development needs:

  • measurability of the reward of a tree policy;
  • integrability from boundedness;
  • the Lebesgue measure of product boxes;
  • finiteness of the set of skeletons of bounded depth;
  • a covering argument for the bounded range of split points;
  • Mathlib's strong_law_ae.

Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome, as are alternative proofs of Theorem 1 through Glivenko–Cantelli or VC-type arguments.

Selected references

  • D. F. Ciocan and V. V. Mišić, Interpretable Optimal Stopping, Management Science, 2022. Preprint arXiv:1812.07211v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.07211
  • F. A. Longstaff and E. S. Schwartz, Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach, Review of Financial Studies 14(1), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/14.1.113
  • A. J. Kleywegt, A. Shapiro and T. Homem-de-Mello, The Sample Average Approximation Method for Stochastic Discrete Optimization, SIAM Journal on Optimization 12(2), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499363220
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Operations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimax-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unobserved Confounding: Minimizing the Worst-Case Empirical Regret Attains the Population Minimax Regret up to an Explicit n^(-1/2) TermResearch Paper

Motivation

Personalized decisions in medicine, marketing and public policy are increasingly learned from observational data: records of who received which treatment and how it turned out. Standard policy-learning methods assume unconfoundedness, that treatment assignment depends only on observed covariates. When an unobserved factor influences both the treatment and the outcome, these methods can return a policy that is worse than the status quo, and nothing in the data reveals it.

Kallus and Zhou (arXiv:1805.08593, published in Management Science 2021 as Minimax-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unobserved Confounding) take the robust route. They fix a bound Γ≥1\Gamma \ge 1Γ≥1 on how far the unobserved confounding may distort the propensity scores, in the marginal sensitivity model of Tan (2006), and learn the policy that minimizes the worst-case regret against a baseline policy π0\pi_0π0​ over every distortion the model allows. The paper proves two guarantees for this policy: it never does worse than the baseline up to vanishing terms (Theorem 2), and it is asymptotically minimax-optimal (Corollary 7). This mission is about the second.

Setting

Data are iid triples (X,T,Y)(X, T, Y)(X,T,Y): covariates X∈XX \in \mathcal XX∈X, one of m≥2m \ge 2m≥2 treatments T∈{0,…,m−1}T \in \{0, \dots, m-1\}T∈{0,…,m−1}, and a real outcome YYY, read as a loss. The nominal propensity is e~t(x)=P(T=t∣X=x)\tilde e_t(x) = P(T = t \mid X = x)e~t​(x)=P(T=t∣X=x). A policy π\piπ assigns to each xxx a probability vector π(⋅∣x)\pi(\cdot \mid x)π(⋅∣x) over treatments; Π\PiΠ is a class of policies and π0\pi_0π0​ a baseline.

Inverse propensity weights W(t,x,y)W(t,x,y)W(t,x,y) are unknown under confounding. The marginal sensitivity model with parameter Γ\GammaΓ confines them to the weight box

atΓ(x)≤W(t,x,y)≤btΓ(x),atΓ(x)=1+Γ−1(1e~t(x)−1),btΓ(x)=1+Γ(1e~t(x)−1).a^\Gamma_t(x) \le W(t,x,y) \le b^\Gamma_t(x), \qquad a^\Gamma_t(x) = 1 + \Gamma^{-1}\big(\tfrac{1}{\tilde e_t(x)} - 1\big), \quad b^\Gamma_t(x) = 1 + \Gamma\big(\tfrac{1}{\tilde e_t(x)} - 1\big).atΓ​(x)≤W(t,x,y)≤btΓ​(x),atΓ​(x)=1+Γ−1(e~t​(x)1​−1),btΓ​(x)=1+Γ(e~t​(x)1​−1).

The set of such weight functions is WΓ\mathcal W^\GammaWΓ, and its restriction to a sample of size nnn is the box WnΓ⊆Rn\mathcal W^\Gamma_n \subseteq \mathbb R^nWnΓ​⊆Rn.

For weights WWW, the Hájek regret of π\piπ against π0\pi_0π0​ is Rπ0(π;W)=∑t=0m−1Rπ0(t)(π;W)R_{\pi_0}(\pi; W) = \sum_{t=0}^{m-1} R^{(t)}_{\pi_0}(\pi; W)Rπ0​​(π;W)=∑t=0m−1​Rπ0​(t)​(π;W) with

Rπ0(t)(π;W)=E[I[T=t] (π(t∣X)−π0(t∣X)) W(T,X,Y) Y]E[I[T=t] W(T,X,Y)],R^{(t)}_{\pi_0}(\pi; W) = \frac{\mathbb E\big[\mathbb I[T=t]\,(\pi(t\mid X) - \pi_0(t\mid X))\, W(T,X,Y)\, Y\big]}{\mathbb E\big[\mathbb I[T=t]\, W(T,X,Y)\big]},Rπ0​(t)​(π;W)=E[I[T=t]W(T,X,Y)]E[I[T=t](π(t∣X)−π0​(t∣X))W(T,X,Y)Y]​,

and R^π0(π;W)\hat R_{\pi_0}(\pi; W)R^π0​​(π;W) is the same expression with E\mathbb EE replaced by the sample average En\mathbb E_nEn​. The worst-case regrets are

Rˉπ0(π;WΓ)=sup⁡W∈WΓRπ0(π;W),Rˉ^π0(π;WnΓ)=sup⁡W∈WnΓR^π0(π;W).\bar R_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma) = \sup_{W \in \mathcal W^\Gamma} R_{\pi_0}(\pi; W), \qquad \hat{\bar R}_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma_n) = \sup_{W \in \mathcal W^\Gamma_n} \hat R_{\pi_0}(\pi; W).Rˉπ0​​(π;WΓ)=W∈WΓsup​Rπ0​​(π;W),Rˉ^π0​​(π;WnΓ​)=W∈WnΓ​sup​R^π0​​(π;W).

The learned policy πˉ^\hat{\bar\pi}πˉ^ minimizes Rˉ^π0(⋅ ;WnΓ)\hat{\bar R}_{\pi_0}(\cdot\,; \mathcal W^\Gamma_n)Rˉ^π0​​(⋅;WnΓ​) over Π\PiΠ; the population minimax regret is inf⁡π∈ΠRˉπ0(π;WΓ)\inf_{\pi\in\Pi} \bar R_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma)infπ∈Π​Rˉπ0​​(π;WΓ).

The complexity of Π\PiΠ is measured by its VC-major dimension (Definition 1): the largest vvv such that some vvv points (tj,xj)(t_j, x_j)(tj​,xj​) have all 2v2^v2v subsets cut out by superlevel sets {(t,x):π(t∣x)>θ}\{(t,x) : \pi(t\mid x) > \theta\}{(t,x):π(t∣x)>θ}, π∈Π\pi \in \Piπ∈Π, θ∈R\theta \in \mathbb Rθ∈R. The standing assumptions are bounded outcomes ∣Y∣≤B|Y| \le B∣Y∣≤B (Assumption 1), overlap with constant ν>0\nu > 0ν>0 (Assumption 2), and VC-major dimension of Π\PiΠ at most vvv (Assumption 3).

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 7 (p. 15)

There is a constant KKK depending only on vvv such that, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,

Rˉπ0(πˉ^;WΓ)≤inf⁡π∈ΠRˉπ0(π;WΓ)+36(12+ν−1)(BK+ν−1(Γ−Γ−1)(K+B+m))log⁡(15m/δ)n.\bar R_{\pi_0}(\hat{\bar\pi}; \mathcal W^\Gamma) \le \inf_{\pi \in \Pi} \bar R_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma) + 36(12 + \nu^{-1})\big(BK + \nu^{-1}(\Gamma - \Gamma^{-1})(K + B + m)\big)\sqrt{\frac{\log(15m/\delta)}{n}}.Rˉπ0​​(πˉ^;WΓ)≤π∈Πinf​Rˉπ0​​(π;WΓ)+36(12+ν−1)(BK+ν−1(Γ−Γ−1)(K+B+m))nlog(15m/δ)​​.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 3 and Corollary 4: each treatment's worst case over the box is attained among monotone weights atΓ(x)+u(y(π(t∣x)−π0(t∣x)))(btΓ(x)−atΓ(x))a^\Gamma_t(x) + u\big(y(\pi(t\mid x) - \pi_0(t\mid x))\big)(b^\Gamma_t(x) - a^\Gamma_t(x))atΓ​(x)+u(y(π(t∣x)−π0​(t∣x)))(btΓ​(x)−atΓ​(x)), uuu nondecreasing into [0,1][0,1][0,1], in the population and in every sample.
  2. Lemma 5: sup⁡h−sup⁡g≤sup⁡(h−g)\sup h - \sup g \le \sup (h - g)suph−supg≤sup(h−g).
  3. Lemma 2: uniform deviation of (π(T∣X)−1/m)Y(\pi(T\mid X) - 1/m)Y(π(T∣X)−1/m)Y over Π\PiΠ, at rate 92CK(v+2)log⁡(5/δ)/n\tfrac92 C\sqrt K (v+2)\sqrt{\log(5/\delta)/n}29​CK​(v+2)log(5/δ)/n​.
  4. Lemma 3 and Corollary 15: for a fixed policy, uniform deviation over monotone uuu, at rate 92πlog⁡(1/p)/n9\sqrt{2\pi\log(1/p)/n}92πlog(1/p)/n​, overall and per treatment.
  5. Lemma 4: the same jointly over Π\PiΠ and uuu, given the VC-major dimension of the composition class.
  6. Theorem 6 (as proved): with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, sup⁡π∈Π∣Rˉ^π0(π;WnΓ)−Rˉπ0(π;WΓ)∣\sup_{\pi\in\Pi} |\hat{\bar R}_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma_n) - \bar R_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma)|supπ∈Π​∣Rˉ^π0​​(π;WnΓ​)−Rˉπ0​​(π;WΓ)∣ is at most the goal's rate with 181818 in place of 363636.

Significance

The result. Corollary 7 says that the confounding-robust policy loses at most O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2) against the best possible worst-case guarantee in its class. The worst-case regret Rˉπ0(π;WΓ)\bar R_{\pi_0}(\pi; \mathcal W^\Gamma)Rˉπ0​​(π;WΓ) cannot be identified from data. It is the regret the decision maker must budget for when the confounding is only known to lie within Γ\GammaΓ. With Theorem 2, it makes the procedure both safe and asymptotically optimal among safe procedures, for randomized and multi-treatment policy classes of finite VC-major dimension.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof of the dimension-only dependence of KKK is incomplete. Its Proposition 5, which states that the monotone weight class WˉΓ=⋃π∈ΠWˉΓ(π)\bar{\mathcal W}^\Gamma = \bigcup_{\pi\in\Pi} \bar{\mathcal W}^\Gamma(\pi)WˉΓ=⋃π∈Π​WˉΓ(π) has finite VC-major dimension under Assumption 3, is false as printed. A class of monotone policies on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with VC-major dimension at most 222 gives a WˉΓ\bar{\mathcal W}^\GammaWˉΓ that shatters arbitrarily large grids. The printed proof of Theorem 6 runs through Proposition 5 and Lemma 4, so Theorem 6 and Corollary 7 are believed true but are not established by the paper. A formal proof would settle the claim. None of the statements has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The worst case over WΓ\mathcal W^\GammaWΓ is a supremum over an essentially arbitrary bounded function class, which is far too large for a uniform law of large numbers. Proposition 3 reduces it to monotone transformations of the score y(π(t∣x)−π0(t∣x))y(\pi(t\mid x) - \pi_0(t\mid x))y(π(t∣x)−π0​(t∣x)). This is a linear-fractional program whose population version lives in a function space. The natural next step is to apply a uniform law over the pairs (π,u)(\pi, u)(π,u). That step needs a complexity bound on the composition u∘scoreπu \circ \text{score}_\piu∘scoreπ​ in terms of the dimension of Π\PiΠ alone, and this is exactly where the printed argument fails. A different route is needed. One candidate exploits the Lipschitz dependence of the worst-case Hájek value on the scores. The Hájek ratios also need denominators bounded away from zero uniformly. The paper's decomposition (p. 42) uses E[W I[T=t]]=1\mathbb E[W\,\mathbb I[T=t]] = 1E[WI[T=t]]=1, which holds for the true weights only.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace ConfoundRobust.Minimax, with one definitions file Setting.

  • Data and sampling. An observation is a point of 𝒳 × Fin m × ℝ, with treatments 0-indexed as on the page. The population is a probability measure μ, and a sample is ω : Fin n → Obs 𝒳 m under Measure.pi. En\mathbb E_nEn​ is (1/n)∑i(1/n)\sum_i(1/n)∑i​.
  • Policies and propensity. A policy is π : 𝒳 → Fin m → ℝ, with π x t =π(t∣x)= \pi(t \mid x)=π(t∣x), measurable and simplex-valued. The nominal propensity is a measurable version of P(T=t∣X=x)P(T = t \mid X = x)P(T=t∣X=x), given by its defining integral identity, with ν≤e~≤1\nu \le \tilde e \le 1ν≤e~≤1.
  • Assumptions. Assumption 1 is ∣Y∣≤B|Y| \le B∣Y∣≤B almost surely. Assumption 2 enters only through its observable consequence e~t(x)≥ν\tilde e_t(x) \ge \nue~t​(x)≥ν; this is a weaker hypothesis, so the statements are at least as strong. Assumption 3 is the predicate "VC-major dimension at most vvv" on the functions (t,x)↦π(t∣x)(t,x) \mapsto \pi(t\mid x)(t,x)↦π(t∣x).
  • Weights and suprema. Weight functions in WΓ\mathcal W^\GammaWΓ are measurable. Suprema and infima are real sSup/sInf; the weight sets are nonempty (they contain 1/e~1/\tilde e1/e~) and the regrets are bounded, so these are true extrema. An empty treatment group gives a Hájek ratio 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0.
  • Probability statements. "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" means a measurable event of that product measure on which the bound holds for every policy. πˉ^\hat{\bar\pi}πˉ^ is any sample minimizer.
  • Constants. In the goal, Theorem 6, Lemma 2 and Lemma 4 the constant KKK is quantified as ∀ v, ∃ K, ∀ (everything else). Letting KKK depend on Π\PiΠ, μ\muμ, nnn or δ\deltaδ would trivialize the bound and is ruled out.
  • Disclosed readings.
    • Lemmas 3, 4 and Corollary 15 are posed for p≤1/2p \le 1/2p≤1/2: as printed (every ppp) they are false for ppp near 111.
    • The clipped bounds of Corollary 15 and Lemma 4 (PDF p. 41) are reconstructed.
    • Lemma 2 drops "for nnn large enough", which its proof does not use.
    • Lemma 2, Theorem 6 and the goal assume Π\PiΠ is pointwise separable (a countable subclass approximates every policy pointwise), and Lemma 4 assumes the same of its composition class. This is the measurability condition of the empirical-process tools the proofs use. Without it the uniform statements fail (initial segments of ω1\omega_1ω1​ under the countable–cocountable measure).
    • Theorem 6 uses 181818, the constant its proof ends with. The goal's 363636 follows from it, but not from the printed Theorem 6.
    • The printed proof of Theorem 6 passes through Proposition 5, which is false as printed. Do not expect that route to work. Lemma 4 is kept as a statement about the composition class's own dimension.

A complete development needs: linear-fractional optimization over function boxes; Dudley-type entropy bounds for VC-major and VC-hull classes; the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality with Massart's constant (posed separately on the platform as MassartDKW.Tight.corollary_1); and a uniform bound for Hájek ratios. The empirical-process pieces (VC-major classes, monotone classes) are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, and alternative routes to Theorem 6 that avoid Proposition 5, are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Kallus and A. Zhou, Confounding-Robust Policy Improvement, arXiv:1805.08593v3, 2019; published as Minimax-Optimal Policy Learning Under Unobserved Confounding, Management Science, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.08593v3
  • Z. Tan, A distributional approach for causal inference using propensity scores, Journal of the American Statistical Association 101(476), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000000023
  • P. Massart, The tight constant in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality, Annals of Probability 18(3), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990746
  • A. W. van der Vaart and J. A. Wellner, Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, Springer, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2545-2
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior 3: A Three-Value Instance with General Costs Where No Optimal Policy Is Outcome MonotonicResearch Paper

Motivation

When a decision rule is announced in advance, people may change the features on which the rule acts. A lender, for example, may offer loans with different probabilities to applicants with different reported characteristics. An applicant then weighs the greater chance of receiving a loan against the cost of changing those characteristics. The decision maker must account for this response when choosing the rule. Tsirtsis and coauthors study this problem with a finite feature set and a policy that specifies the probability of a positive decision at each value.

If moving to a better-outcome feature costs more and moving to a worse-outcome feature costs nothing, the paper shows that at least one optimal policy can be chosen to respect the ordering of outcomes. Section 5 asks what remains of that conclusion when change costs are general. Its three-value example answers the question sharply: an optimal policy exists, but no optimal policy respects outcome monotonicity. The example isolates the role played by the cost assumption in the earlier result. Source, §§4–5

Setting

There are mmm feature values x1,…,xmx_1,\ldots,x_mx1​,…,xm​. An individual initially has value xix_ixi​ with probability p(xi)=P(xi)p(x_i)=P(x_i)p(xi​)=P(xi​). At feature value xjx_jxj​, the probability of a positive underlying outcome is q(xj)=P(y=1∣xj)q(x_j)=P(y=1\mid x_j)q(xj​)=P(y=1∣xj​). A decision policy π\piπ assigns a positive-decision probability π(xj)∈[0,1]\pi(x_j)\in[0,1]π(xj​)∈[0,1] to each value. The decision maker incurs a cost γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) for a positive decision. This is the paper's base model: the individual benefit is b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x), and the outcome probability P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) does not change when an individual changes features. Source, §2, p. 3, equations (1)–(3)

An individual at xix_ixi​ may move to xjx_jxj​, paying change cost c(xi,xj)c(x_i,x_j)c(xi​,xj​). Their best response maximizes π(xj)−c(xi,xj)\pi(x_j)-c(x_i,x_j)π(xj​)−c(xi​,xj​) over all destinations. If several destinations tie, the paper selects one with the highest outcome probability q(xj)q(x_j)q(xj​). The resulting population distribution depends on π\piπ. The decision maker's strategic utility is the expected outcome surplus under that response:

up,q,γ,c(π)=∑i=1mp(xi)(q(br⁡c,q,π(xi))−γ)π(br⁡c,q,π(xi)).u_{p,q,\gamma,c}(\pi)=\sum_{i=1}^{m}p(x_i) \bigl(q(\operatorname{br}_{c,q,\pi}(x_i))-\gamma\bigr) \pi(\operatorname{br}_{c,q,\pi}(x_i)).up,q,γ,c​(π)=i=1∑m​p(xi​)(q(brc,q,π​(xi​))−γ)π(brc,q,π​(xi​)).

This sum is equation (7) regrouped by each individual's initial value. An optimal policy maximizes it over every policy in [0,1]m[0,1]^m[0,1]m. The paper assumes a positive cost for moving to a distinct feature whose outcome is at least as good as the starting feature; its Section 5 matrix meets that assumption. Source, §3, pp. 4–5, equations (5) and (7)

The example has m=3m=3m=3, γ=0.1\gamma=0.1γ=0.1, p=(0.1,0.4,0.5)p=(0.1,0.4,0.5)p=(0.1,0.4,0.5), and q=(1,0.7,0.4)q=(1,0.7,0.4)q=(1,0.7,0.4). Rows of the following matrix are starting features and columns are destinations:

c=(00.20.30.300.71.21.10).c=\begin{pmatrix} 0&0.2&0.3\\ 0.3&0&0.7\\ 1.2&1.1&0 \end{pmatrix}.c=​00.31.2​0.201.1​0.30.70​​.

Moving from x1x_1x1​ to the lower-outcome x2x_2x2​ costs 0.20.20.2. That violates the zero-cost requirement for such moves in the paper's outcome monotonic cost definition. A policy is called outcome monotonic here when a larger positive-decision probability implies a larger outcome probability: π(xi)<π(xj)⇒q(xi)<q(xj)\pi(x_i)<\pi(x_j)\Rightarrow q(x_i)<q(x_j)π(xi​)<π(xj​)⇒q(xi​)<q(xj​). Source, §§2, 4–5, pp. 3, 6, 9

Formalization targets

The printed optimal family

For every admissible policy π\piπ with π(x1)=1\pi(x_1)=1π(x1​)=1, π(x2)≤0.7\pi(x_2)\leq0.7π(x2​)≤0.7, and π(x3)=1\pi(x_3)=1π(x3​)=1, the paper states that π\piπ is optimal and that individuals initially at x2x_2x2​ move to x1x_1x1​:

∀π∈[0,1]3,(π(x1)=1∧π(x2)≤0.7∧π(x3)=1)⟹(π is optimal∧br⁡c,q,π(x2)=x1).\forall\pi\in[0,1]^3, \quad\bigl(\pi(x_1)=1\land\pi(x_2)\leq0.7\land\pi(x_3)=1\bigr) \Longrightarrow \bigl(\pi\text{ is optimal}\land\operatorname{br}_{c,q,\pi}(x_2)=x_1\bigr).∀π∈[0,1]3,(π(x1​)=1∧π(x2​)≤0.7∧π(x3​)=1)⟹(π is optimal∧brc,q,π​(x2​)=x1​).

The endpoint π(x2)=0.7\pi(x_2)=0.7π(x2​)=0.7 matters: the move from x2x_2x2​ to x1x_1x1​ ties with staying in benefit less cost, and the paper's outcome tie rule chooses x1x_1x1​. Source, §5, p. 9

Goal: no outcome monotonic optimum

The principal target formalizes the Section 5 heading in this fixed instance:

∃π∈[0,1]3:π is optimal,∀π∈[0,1]3:π is optimal⟹¬OMPolicy⁡(q,π).\exists\pi\in[0,1]^3:\pi\text{ is optimal}, \qquad \forall\pi\in[0,1]^3:\pi\text{ is optimal}\Longrightarrow \neg\operatorname{OMPolicy}(q,\pi).∃π∈[0,1]3:π is optimal,∀π∈[0,1]3:π is optimal⟹¬OMPolicy(q,π).

The existence clause rules out an empty optimal set. This formulation follows the heading's assertion that an outcome-monotonic optimum may fail to exist, while the printed family supplies concrete optima. Source, §5, p. 9

Significance

The result gives an explicit boundary for the earlier outcome-monotonic-policy guarantee. With the Section 5 costs, favoring the lowest-outcome value x3x_3x3​ as much as the highest-outcome value x1x_1x1​ can be optimal, because the response to a published policy changes where population mass receives decisions. Thus a search restricted to outcome-monotonic policies can miss every optimum in a general-cost instance. The milestone on the printed family records a full interval of optimal policies, including its tie endpoint. Source, §§4–5, pp. 6, 9

The paper proves its example informally; this mission asks for a machine-checked account of the fixed instance and the universal quantifiers behind “every” and “no.” The development also yields reusable definitions for finite strategic policies, the outcome-aware best response, and utility. The other missions in this series treat the additive-cost theorem and a stochastic-optimum example separately. No theorem in this mission is presented as an open research problem.

Difficulty

Checking that one displayed policy has high utility is insufficient to establish optimality over every policy in [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3. The best response changes at equality thresholds, so utility is piecewise defined and may jump when the tie rule changes the destination. The closed bound π(x2)≤0.7\pi(x_2)\leq0.7π(x2​)≤0.7 makes one such threshold part of the statement. A finite numerical grid misses both arbitrary real policies and the exact tie behavior. The negative goal also requires excluding outcome monotonicity for every maximizer, rather than exhibiting one nonmonotonic maximizer.

Formalization scope

The features are Fin 3 in the example, with Lean indices 0,1,20,1,20,1,2 representing x1,x2,x3x_1,x_2,x_3x1​,x2​,x3​. The general model uses Fin m with a nonempty finite feature set. Probabilities, costs, and utility are real numbers; the example's decimals are exact rational reals. Policies range over all real-valued functions with each coordinate in [0,1][0,1][0,1], and optimality uses IsMaxOn on precisely that set. The best response is constructed from the maximizers of π(xj)−c(xi,xj)\pi(x_j)-c(x_i,x_j)π(xj​)−c(xi​,xj​) and then the largest q(xj)q(x_j)q(xj​). If tied destinations also have equal qqq, the least index is chosen; the example has distinct outcome probabilities, so this final convention never affects its claims.

Equation (1) prints strict outcome and policy comparisons as a biconditional, although the paper's later policy class permits equal policy values at distinct outcomes. This mission uses its one-way implication from a strict policy comparison to a strict outcome comparison. Failure of this weaker condition is a stronger counterexample than failure of the printed biconditional. The cost definition applies its printed pair and triple comparisons only to distinct values and records c(xi,xi)=0c(x_i,x_i)=0c(xi​,xi​)=0, as required for free staying. The example's constants satisfy the paper's standing positive-upward-cost assumption. These readings are disclosed so the formal claim has a consistent, nonvacuous model.

A complete proof needs finite argmax reasoning, exact rational inequalities, a case analysis over real policy regions, and the semantics of IsMaxOn. The finite best-response and utility definitions can be reused for other strategic-decision instances. Contributions may establish the printed family, its transport claim, bounds for all admissible policies, or the final exclusion of monotonic maximizers. Policies are never restricted to a grid, and the best response is computed from the model data rather than supplied as a free variable. The paper's algorithms, complexity claims, empirical studies, and changes to P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • S. Tsirtsis, B. Tabibian, M. Khajehnejad, A. Singla, B. Schölkopf, and M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, Management Science, 2024. arXiv:1905.09239v5, the source version used here.
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Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior 2: A Three-Value Instance with Outcome Monotonic Costs Whose Optimal Policies Are All StochasticResearch Paper

Motivation

Many consequential decisions, such as lending, hiring or admissions, are made by policies that map an individual's features to a probability of a positive decision. When the policy is published, individuals respond to it: they change their features, at a cost, to raise their chance of a positive decision. Tsirtsis, Tabibian, Khajehnejad, Singla, Schölkopf and Gomez-Rodriguez (arXiv:1905.09239, Management Science 2024) model this as a Stackelberg game and ask which policy maximizes the decision maker's utility once individuals best respond.

In the classical, non-strategic setting, where features do not react to the policy, the optimal policy is a deterministic threshold rule: decide positively exactly when the probability of a good outcome is at least a cost constant γ\gammaγ (Corbett-Davies et al., KDD 2017; Valera, Singla and Gomez-Rodriguez, NeurIPS 2018). The paper shows that strategic behaviour breaks this picture. A three-value example in §3 (p. 5) exhibits an instance whose costs satisfy the natural outcome monotonicity condition and whose optimal policy is nevertheless stochastic. This mission formalizes that example.

Setting

There are mmm feature values x1,…,xmx_1,\dots,x_mx1​,…,xm​, a feature distribution P(x)P(x)P(x), an outcome probability P(y=1∣x)P(y=1\mid x)P(y=1∣x), a constant γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1), and a cost c(xi,xj)≥0c(x_i,x_j)\ge0c(xi​,xj​)≥0 of changing from xix_ixi​ to xjx_jxj​.

  • A policy π\piπ assigns to each feature value a probability π(x)=π(d=1∣x)∈[0,1]\pi(x)=\pi(d=1\mid x)\in[0,1]π(x)=π(d=1∣x)∈[0,1] of a positive decision. The individual benefit is b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x).
  • An individual starting at xix_ixi​ moves to a best response
xj∈argmax⁡k π(xk)−c(xi,xk)(5),x_j\in\operatorname*{argmax}_{k}\ \pi(x_k)-c(x_i,x_k)\qquad(5),xj​∈kargmax​ π(xk​)−c(xi​,xk​)(5),

with ties broken toward the feature value with the highest P(y∣xj)P(y\mid x_j)P(y∣xj​) (standing assumption (ii)).

  • The strategic utility is
u(π,γ)=∑iP(xi) (P(y=1∣xbr(i))−γ) π(xbr(i))(7),u(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_{i}P(x_i)\,\bigl(P(y=1\mid x_{\mathrm{br}(i)})-\gamma\bigr)\,\pi(x_{\mathrm{br}(i)})\qquad(7),u(π,γ)=i∑​P(xi​)(P(y=1∣xbr(i)​)−γ)π(xbr(i)​)(7),

and a policy is optimal if it maximizes uuu over all policies.

  • The non-strategic utility uNS(π,γ)=∑xP(x)(P(y=1∣x)−γ)π(x)u_{\mathrm{NS}}(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_x P(x)(P(y=1\mid x)-\gamma)\pi(x)uNS​(π,γ)=∑x​P(x)(P(y=1∣x)−γ)π(x) is the same quantity when nobody moves.
  • A cost is outcome monotonic (p. 6) if improving one's outcome requires increasing effort and worsening it requires none.

The instance of §3 has x∈{1,2,3}x\in\{1,2,3\}x∈{1,2,3}, γ=0.1\gamma=0.1γ=0.1, P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5)P(x)=(0.1,0.4,0.5), P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1\mid x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4)P(y=1∣x)=(1.0,0.7,0.4) and

c(xi,xj)=(0000.3001.20.30),c(x_i,x_j)=\begin{pmatrix}0&0&0\\0.3&0&0\\1.2&0.3&0\end{pmatrix},c(xi​,xj​)=​00.31.2​000.3​000​​,

row iii being the origin. In Lean the feature values 1,2,31,2,31,2,3 are Fin 3 indices 0,1,20,1,20,1,2; the model lives in the namespace StrategicPolicy.StochasticOpt, with Policies, br, u, uNS, OMCost, StandingI and the instance γ0, p0, q0, c0.

Formalization targets

Goal: the optimal policies of the §3 instance

π optimal  ⟺  π(x=1)=1, π(x=2)=0.7, π(x=3)≤0.4,\pi\ \text{optimal}\iff \pi(x=1)=1,\ \pi(x=2)=0.7,\ \pi(x=3)\le 0.4,π optimal⟺π(x=1)=1, π(x=2)=0.7, π(x=3)≤0.4,

every optimal policy is non-deterministic, and u((1,0.7,0),γ)=0.66u\bigl((1,0.7,0),\gamma\bigr)=0.66u((1,0.7,0),γ)=0.66. The paper prints a single optimal policy, (1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0); the optimum is not unique, and the goal states the exact optimal set, which contains the printed policy and makes the "stochastic" claim a statement about every optimum.

Milestones

  1. The instance's cost is outcome monotonic and satisfies standing assumption (i).
  2. The non-strategic optimum is unique and equals the threshold policy (1,1,1)(1,1,1)(1,1,1).
  3. Under π∗=(1,0.7,0)\pi^*=(1,0.7,0)π∗=(1,0.7,0) the individuals at x=3x=3x=3 move to x=2x=2x=2 and those at x=2x=2x=2 move to x=1x=1x=1.
  4. uNS((1,1,1))<u(π∗)u_{\mathrm{NS}}((1,1,1))<u(\pi^*)uNS​((1,1,1))<u(π∗) and u((1,1,1))<u(π∗)u((1,1,1))<u(\pi^*)u((1,1,1))<u(π∗): the strategic optimum beats its non-strategic counterpart under either reading of "counterpart".

Significance

The example separates two regimes. Without strategic behaviour the optimum is a deterministic threshold rule; with it, randomization is strictly necessary, even under the cost structure (outcome monotonicity) that the paper later uses to restrict the search for optimal policies to a structured family (Proposition 2, Theorem 3). It is the concrete witness for the paper's claim that "optimal decision policies are not always deterministic threshold rules", and it shows that the outcome monotonic binary policies of Theorem 3 must include fractional values such as 0.7=1−0.30.7=1-0.30.7=1−0.3.

The paper reports the optimum from "a brute force search", that is, numerically. A formal proof replaces the search by an argument valid over the whole continuum [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3, determines the full optimal set rather than one optimizer, and certifies the tie-breaking at both thresholds. No part of this paper has a machine-checked proof that this mission is aware of.

Difficulty

The utility is piecewise linear in π\piπ but discontinuous: it jumps whenever a best response switches, and the switching surfaces are exactly where the optimum sits. At π(x=2)=0.7\pi(x=2)=0.7π(x=2)=0.7 the individuals at x=2x=2x=2 are indifferent between staying and moving to x=1x=1x=1, and at π(x=3)=0.4\pi(x=3)=0.4π(x=3)=0.4 those at x=3x=3x=3 are indifferent between staying and moving to x=2x=2x=2. The optimum is attained only because tie-break (ii) resolves both indifferences upward. Checking finitely many candidate policies proves nothing about the rest of [0,1]3[0,1]^3[0,1]3, and a naive concavity or first-order argument does not apply to a discontinuous objective. An upper bound must hold for every policy, across all configurations of best responses.

Formalization scope

  • Policies are functions Fin 3 → ℝ with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; optimality is IsMaxOn u (Policies 3) π, over the whole cube, never over a grid or over deterministic policies.
  • The best response br is computed from π\piπ, ccc and P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) as the maximizer of (5) with the highest outcome, then the least index; it is never a free function constrained by hypotheses. With the instance's distinct outcomes the least-index rule never fires.
  • The model is the paper's base model: b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x), and P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x) is unchanged by best responses (§2). Standing assumption (i) and outcome monotonicity are proved for the instance (milestone 1), not assumed.
  • Outcome monotonicity is imposed for distinct feature values together with c(x,x)=0c(x,x)=0c(x,x)=0, since the printed zero-cost equivalence at i=ji=ji=j would forbid free staying.
  • All numbers are exact rationals (1/101/101/10, 7/107/107/10, 2/52/52/5, 6/56/56/5, 3/103/103/10).
  • A formalization that states only "(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0)(1,0.7,0) is optimal", or optimality against finitely many policies, would drop the stochasticity claim or trivialize the goal; neither is posed.
  • Out of scope: Theorem 1 (NP-hardness), Proposition 2 and Theorem 3 (the structural results, mission 1 of this series), the general-cost example of §5 (mission 3), the algorithms and the experiments.

Needed infrastructure is small: finite sums over Fin 3, Finset.filter, Finset.min'. Lemmas evaluating br on regions of the policy cube are reusable across the series' examples.

Selected references

  • S. Tsirtsis, B. Tabibian, M. Khajehnejad, A. Singla, B. Schölkopf, M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, Management Science, 2024; read as arXiv:1905.09239v5, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.09239v5
  • S. Corbett-Davies, E. Pierson, A. Feller, S. Goel, A. Huq, Algorithmic Decision Making and the Cost of Fairness, KDD 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3097983.3098095
  • I. Valera, A. Singla, M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Enhancing the Accuracy and Fairness of Human Decision Making, NeurIPS 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.10318
  • M. Hardt, N. Megiddo, C. Papadimitriou, M. Wootters, Strategic Classification, ITCS 2016. https://doi.org/10.1145/2840728.2840730
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Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior 1: Under Additive Outcome Monotonic Costs Some Outcome Monotonic Binary Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A lender or other decision maker may publish a rule that assigns a positive decision to an individual with some probability. Once the rule is visible, individuals can change the features on which it acts. The decision maker must therefore evaluate a rule under the distribution it induces after individuals respond, rather than only under the original population. Tsirtsis and coauthors study this problem with finitely many feature values and a cost for changing from one value to another. Their preprint gives a utility model, a best response rule, and structural results for costs that respect the ordering of outcomes.

This mission isolates Theorem 3 of that preprint. It asks whether, under additive and outcome monotonic costs, an optimal decision rule can be found among policies with a particular binary choice at each relevant feature value. The result concerns the structure of an optimum. It does not assert that an arbitrary starting policy is itself binary or that every optimum has this form.

Setting

There are m≥1m\ge1m≥1 feature values x1,…,xmx_1,\ldots,x_mx1​,…,xm​, indexed from highest to lowest positive-outcome probability. Write pi=P(xi)p_i=P(x_i)pi​=P(xi​) for their original population masses and qi=P(y=1∣xi)q_i=P(y=1\mid x_i)qi​=P(y=1∣xi​) for their outcomes. The masses are nonnegative and sum to one, qi∈[0,1]q_i\in[0,1]qi​∈[0,1], and the outcomes are distinct in this mission. A policy π\piπ chooses a positive decision at xix_ixi​ with probability πi∈[0,1]\pi_i\in[0,1]πi​∈[0,1]. Each positive decision costs the decision maker γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1).

An individual originally at xix_ixi​ can move to xjx_jxj​ at change cost cijc_{ij}cij​. In the paper's base model, the individual's benefit at a destination is πj\pi_jπj​, so she maximizes πj−cij\pi_j-c_{ij}πj​−cij​. Ties go to a destination with higher qjq_jqj​. If a tie remains, the formalization picks the smallest index. Write rπ(i)r_\pi(i)rπ​(i) for this best response. The outcome probabilities qjq_jqj​ themselves do not change after the response; the response changes where the population mass is counted. The decision maker's utility is

u(π,γ)=∑i=1mpi(qrπ(i)−γ)πrπ(i).u(\pi,\gamma)=\sum_{i=1}^{m}p_i\bigl(q_{r_\pi(i)}-\gamma\bigr)\pi_{r_\pi(i)}.u(π,γ)=i=1∑m​pi​(qrπ​(i)​−γ)πrπ​(i)​.

A policy is outcome monotonic here when πi<πj\pi_i<\pi_jπi​<πj​ implies qi<qjq_i<q_jqi​<qj​. An outcome monotonic cost obeys the paper's two conditions for distinct feature values: improving outcome through successive values has the specified strict cost ordering, and a move to a lower outcome has zero cost. An additive cost satisfies cij+cjk=cikc_{ij}+c_{jk}=c_{ik}cij​+cjk​=cik​ when qi<qj<qkq_i<q_j<q_kqi​<qj​<qk​. Staying costs zero. The section's standing assumption also makes a distinct move toward a weakly higher outcome cost strictly positive.

Formalization targets

Main goal: Theorem 3

If π∗\pi^*π∗ maximizes utility among all policies in [0,1]m[0,1]^m[0,1]m, and the cost is additive and outcome monotonic, then some outcome monotonic policy π\piπ has u(π,γ)=u(π∗,γ)u(\pi,\gamma)=u(\pi^*,\gamma)u(π,γ)=u(π∗,γ) and satisfies

πi=πi−1orπi=max⁡{0,πi−1−ci,i−1}(i>1, qi>γ).\pi_i=\pi_{i-1} \quad\text{or}\quad \pi_i=\max\{0,\pi_{i-1}-c_{i,i-1}\} \qquad(i>1,\ q_i>\gamma).πi​=πi−1​orπi​=max{0,πi−1​−ci,i−1​}(i>1, qi​>γ).

The paper calls this an outcome monotonic binary policy. Binary describes the two allowed relationships between adjacent policy values; the probabilities themselves can be fractional. The goal is conditional on a maximizer π∗\pi^*π∗, exactly as Theorem 3 is stated. The preprint does not establish that an optimum always exists, and its best response tie thresholds make that question separate.

Milestones

The first milestone records the observation following Proposition 2: under an outcome monotonic policy, an individual never selects a destination with lower outcome than the origin. Proposition 2 then states that some outcome monotonic policy attains the utility of an optimal policy under outcome monotonic costs. The final two milestones formalize the two individual policy changes stated in Appendix A.3, one when a policy value lies between its predecessor and the cost threshold, and one when it lies below that threshold.

Significance

Theorem 3 narrows a continuous search over policy probabilities to a structured family without losing the optimal value, provided an optimum exists. The restriction depends on how feature changes affect the induced population distribution. It is therefore a statement about decision making with strategic responses, not merely about sorting policy values by outcome. Proposition 2 is independently useful: under outcome monotonic costs, the optimal utility can be attained by an outcome monotonic policy even without additivity.

The result is proved in the cited preprint, while the proposed Lean declarations are open proof targets. A complete formalization would make the finite best response rule, the tie convention, and the cost assumptions explicit, then give checked proofs of the structural claims. The definitions of the policy space, response rule, and induced utility may also support later work on the same paper's stochastic examples and algorithms. No machine-checked proof of these proposed statements is claimed here.

Difficulty

The utility depends on a best response selected by an argmax, so changing one policy probability can switch the destination of several population groups at once. The utility need not vary continuously across tie thresholds. A naive coordinate adjustment that improves the outcome probability at one destination can alter who moves there and change the contribution from other origins. This is why a direct appeal to monotonicity of the displayed sum does not establish Proposition 2 or Theorem 3.

The Appendix A.3 statements identify two threshold regimes for a policy value. Their comparisons must account for the tie rule and for all origins whose selected destination changes. The mission keeps these comparisons as separate targets because the conclusion about the whole policy depends on them.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the features by Fin m, with Lean index 000 standing for x1x_1x1​. The model requires m>0m>0m>0 so that the best response has a value. The initial distribution and the conditional outcome probabilities are real valued, with explicit probability bounds. Policies range over the full cube [0,1]m[0,1]^m[0,1]m. The best response is computed from the policy and cost, with the highest-outcome tie rule; it is not supplied as independent data. Optimality means membership in that cube and maximal utility over that cube.

The formalization records several readings needed to make the preprint's displays consistent. Formula (1) prints a strict biconditional, but formula (9) allows equal adjacent policy values, so policy monotonicity is the implication from a strictly larger policy value to a strictly larger outcome. The cost equivalences apply to distinct values; staying is free. Additivity applies along strictly improving outcome chains, since an all-triples equality would conflict with positive improvement cost. Outcomes are assumed distinct, as needed for this version of Theorem 3. These choices are stated on the definition item and checked against the source in the moderation notes.

The goal retains the optimal-policy hypothesis and every clause of the binary property. It cannot be satisfied by defining the best response arbitrarily, shrinking the policy set to a selected candidate, or asserting only that a binary policy exists. The model covers the paper's base case b(x)=π(x)b(x)=\pi(x)b(x)=π(x) with unchanged P(y∣x)P(y\mid x)P(y∣x). The algorithms, complexity claims, experiments, and the paper's other examples are outside this mission. Contributions on the best response interface, finite optimization lemmas, Proposition 2, and either Appendix comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Tsirtsis, B. Tabibian, M. Khajehnejad, A. Singla, B. Schölkopf, and M. Gomez-Rodriguez, Optimal Decision Making Under Strategic Behavior, arXiv:1905.09239v5, 2020, §§2–4 and Appendix A.2–A.3; published in Management Science, 2024. arXiv preprint
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Linear algebraStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

A Robust Spectral Clustering Algorithm for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Models with Outliers 2: Spectral Rounding Without Outliers Gives Σ|S_k|/n_k ≤ 64(2+ε)‖X⁰ − X̂‖₁/n²minResearch Paper

Motivation

Spectral clustering recovers group labels from a similarity matrix: compute its leading eigenvectors, embed each point as a row of the eigenvector matrix, and cluster the rows with k-means. It is a standard last step of convex-relaxation methods for clustering, which first estimate a clustering matrix XXX (with Xij=1X_{ij} = 1Xij​=1 when iii and jjj belong to the same cluster) and then have to turn the estimate back into labels.

Srivastava, Sarkar and Hanasusanto (arXiv:1912.07546v3; Operations Research 71(1), 2023) estimate XXX by a linear program on a thresholded Gaussian kernel and then round it this way (Algorithm 1, steps 3–4). Their Theorem 2 controls the error of the rounding step in terms of the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ error of the estimate. The argument follows Lei and Rinaldo (Ann. Statist. 43(1), 2015), who analysed spectral clustering for stochastic block models with a polynomial-time (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ)-approximate k-means step, combined with the Davis–Kahan theorem in the form of Yu, Wang and Samworth (Biometrika 102(2), 2015). The same pattern, "matrix estimation error ⇒ eigenvector error ⇒ misclassification count", recurs throughout the analysis of SDP and spectral methods for community detection and mixture models.

Setting

There are nnn points and rrr clusters. A fixed labelling φ:[n]→[r]\varphi : [n] \to [r]φ:[n]→[r] gives clusters Ck={i:φ(i)=k}C_k = \{i : \varphi(i) = k\}Ck​={i:φ(i)=k} of sizes nk≥1n_k \ge 1nk​≥1, and nmin⁡=min⁡knkn_{\min} = \min_k n_knmin​=mink​nk​. The true clustering matrix is Xij0=1X^0_{ij} = 1Xij0​=1 if φ(i)=φ(j)\varphi(i) = \varphi(j)φ(i)=φ(j) and 000 otherwise. Its scaled membership matrix is

U0=Z0 Diag(1/n1,…,1/nr),Uik0={1/nkφ(i)=k,0otherwise.U^0 = Z^0\,\mathrm{Diag}(1/\sqrt{n_1},\dots,1/\sqrt{n_r}),\qquad U^0_{ik} = \begin{cases} 1/\sqrt{n_k} & \varphi(i) = k,\\ 0 & \text{otherwise.}\end{cases}U0=Z0Diag(1/n1​​,…,1/nr​​),Uik0​={1/nk​​0​φ(i)=k,otherwise.​

The estimate X^∈Rn×n\hat X \in \mathbb R^{n\times n}X^∈Rn×n is any symmetric matrix with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Spectral rounding takes a matrix U^∈Rn×r\hat U \in \mathbb R^{n\times r}U^∈Rn×r of orthonormal eigenvectors of X^\hat XX^ for its rrr largest eigenvalues (ties broken arbitrarily), and runs k-means on the rows of U^\hat UU^. A membership matrix Θ∈Mn,r\Theta \in \mathbb M_{n,r}Θ∈Mn,r​ is a {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-matrix with exactly one 111 per row; a pair (Θ^,B^)(\hat\Theta, \hat B)(Θ^,B^) with B^∈Rr×r\hat B \in \mathbb R^{r\times r}B^∈Rr×r is a (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ)-approximate k-means solution on the rows of U^\hat UU^ if

∥U^−Θ^B^∥F2≤(1+ϵ)min⁡Θ∈Mn,r, B∈Rr×r∥U^−ΘB∥F2.\|\hat U - \hat\Theta\hat B\|_F^2 \le (1+\epsilon)\min_{\Theta\in\mathbb M_{n,r},\, B\in\mathbb R^{r\times r}}\|\hat U - \Theta B\|_F^2 .∥U^−Θ^B^∥F2​≤(1+ϵ)Θ∈Mn,r​,B∈Rr×rmin​∥U^−ΘB∥F2​.

Let OOO be an optimal rotation, an orthogonal r×rr\times rr×r matrix minimising ∥U^−U0O∥F\|\hat U - U^0O\|_F∥U^−U0O∥F​. With viv_ivi​ and vˉi\bar v_ivˉi​ the rows of U0OU^0OU0O and Θ^B^\hat\Theta\hat BΘ^B^, the misclassified set of cluster kkk is

Sk={i∈Ck:∥vˉi−vi∥≥12nk}.\mathcal S_k = \Big\{ i \in C_k : \|\bar v_i - v_i\| \ge \tfrac{1}{2\sqrt{n_k}} \Big\}.Sk​={i∈Ck​:∥vˉi​−vi​∥≥2nk​​1​}.

Norms: ∥A∥1=∑i,j∣Aij∣\|A\|_1 = \sum_{i,j}|A_{ij}|∥A∥1​=∑i,j​∣Aij​∣ (entrywise), ∥A∥F2=∑i,jAij2\|A\|_F^2 = \sum_{i,j}A_{ij}^2∥A∥F2​=∑i,j​Aij2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, (15), without outliers

For every X^\hat XX^, U^\hat UU^, (Θ^,B^)(\hat\Theta,\hat B)(Θ^,B^) and optimal OOO as above and every ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0,

∑k∈[r]∣Sk∣nk  ≤  64(2+ϵ) ∥X0−X^∥1nmin⁡2.\sum_{k\in[r]}\frac{|\mathcal S_k|}{n_k} \;\le\; 64(2+\epsilon)\,\frac{\|X^0 - \hat X\|_1}{n_{\min}^2}.k∈[r]∑​nk​∣Sk​∣​≤64(2+ϵ)nmin2​∥X0−X^∥1​​.

Milestones

  1. Davis–Kahan (Theorem 3, case s=1s=1s=1): an eigengap ggg of a symmetric Σ\SigmaΣ below its top rrr eigenvalues gives an orthogonal O^\hat OO^ with ∥U−U^O^∥F≤23/2∥Σ^−Σ∥F/g\|U - \hat U\hat O\|_F \le 2^{3/2}\|\hat\Sigma - \Sigma\|_F/g∥U−U^O^∥F​≤23/2∥Σ^−Σ∥F​/g.
  2. Eigenstructure of X0X^0X0: U0U^0U0 consists of top-rrr eigenvectors of X0X^0X0 with eigenvalues n1,…,nrn_1,\dots,n_rn1​,…,nr​, and X0X^0X0 vanishes on the orthogonal complement, so the eigengap is nmin⁡n_{\min}nmin​.
  3. (G.6)(iii): ∥A−B∥F2≤∥A−B∥1\|A - B\|_F^2 \le \|A - B\|_1∥A−B∥F2​≤∥A−B∥1​ for matrices with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1].
  4. (G.6): ∥U^−U0O∥F2≤8∥X^−X0∥1/nmin⁡2\|\hat U - U^0 O\|_F^2 \le 8\|\hat X - X^0\|_1/n_{\min}^2∥U^−U0O∥F2​≤8∥X^−X0∥1​/nmin2​.
  5. Lemma 5, (G.4) (Lei–Rinaldo): for V=Θ∗B∗V = \Theta^*B^*V=Θ∗B∗ and a (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ)-approximate k-means solution on any V^\hat VV^, ∑k∣Sk∣δk2≤4(4+2ϵ)∥V−V^∥F2\sum_k |\mathcal S_k|\delta_k^2 \le 4(4+2\epsilon)\|V - \hat V\|_F^2∑k​∣Sk​∣δk2​≤4(4+2ϵ)∥V−V^∥F2​.
  6. Centre separation: the rows of B∗=Diag(1/nk)OB^* = \mathrm{Diag}(1/\sqrt{n_k})OB∗=Diag(1/nk​​)O satisfy ∥bl∗−bk∗∥=1/nk+1/nl\|b^*_l - b^*_k\| = \sqrt{1/n_k + 1/n_l}∥bl∗​−bk∗​∥=1/nk​+1/nl​​.

Companion: permutation recovery

If 64(2+ϵ)∥X0−X^∥1/nmin⁡2≤164(2+\epsilon)\|X^0 - \hat X\|_1/n_{\min}^2 \le 164(2+ϵ)∥X0−X^∥1​/nmin2​≤1, the k-means labels agree with φ\varphiφ up to one permutation of [r][r][r] on every point outside ⋃kSk\bigcup_k\mathcal S_k⋃k​Sk​.

Significance

Inequality (15) separates the analysis of the algorithm into an estimation part (how close X^\hat XX^ is to X0X^0X0 in ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​, Theorem 1 of the paper) and a purely deterministic rounding part. Any estimator of the clustering matrix with entries in [0,1][0,1][0,1] — the Robust-LP, the SDP relaxations of Peng–Wei or Amini–Levina, a thresholded kernel — inherits a misclassification bound from its ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ error through this one statement, with an explicit constant. The companion statement shows that the sets Sk\mathcal S_kSk​ really are the misclassified points.

The result is proved on paper; none of it is formalized. Mathlib has the spectral theorem for Hermitian matrices but no eigenspace perturbation bound of Davis–Kahan type, and the platform has no k-means approximation lemma for membership matrices. A machine-checked Davis–Kahan theorem in Frobenius norm and a machine-checked Lei–Rinaldo lemma are reusable well beyond this paper: they are the two standard ingredients of every spectral clustering guarantee for block models and mixtures.

Difficulty

The k-means part is elementary but bookkeeping-heavy: the comparison point in the (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ) bound must be a feasible k-means solution, which is why the true embedding U0OU^0OU0O has to factor as a membership matrix times a centre matrix. The main obstacle is the Davis–Kahan step. The naive route through individual eigenvectors fails when eigenvalues of X^\hat XX^ or of X0X^0X0 are repeated (here X0X^0X0 has eigenvalue nkn_knk​ with multiplicity whenever cluster sizes coincide), and only the subspace is stable; the bound must be stated up to an orthogonal matrix and proved for the whole eigenspace, with no ordering or separation assumption on the eigenvalues of X^\hat XX^.

Formalization scope

Points are Fin n, clusters Fin r, matrices Matrix ι κ ℝ; the norms are explicit sums, not Mathlib's matrix norm instances. The labelling φ\varphiφ is fixed; membership matrices are encoded by assignments a:[n]→[r]a : [n]\to[r]a:[n]→[r], and "≤(1+ϵ)min⁡\le (1+\epsilon)\min≤(1+ϵ)min" by "≤(1+ϵ)⋅\le (1+\epsilon)\cdot≤(1+ϵ)⋅ the cost of every assignment and every centre matrix". "Top-rrr eigenvectors" is variational: orthonormal columns, eigenvector equations, and every Rayleigh quotient on the orthogonal complement at most each selected eigenvalue. nmin⁡n_{\min}nmin​ is a finite minimum and requires r≥1r \ge 1r≥1.

Departures from the printed text, each disclosed in the item concerned:

  • No outliers (m=0m = 0m=0). The printed Theorem 2 allows outliers; it is false for m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, because the outlier rows of U0U^0U0 are zero, so the true embedding is not k-means feasible and Lemma 5 does not apply. A counterexample with two clusters of size M>256M > 256M>256, one isolated outlier and ϵ=2\epsilon = 2ϵ=2 violates (15).
  • No probability, no ϵˉ\bar\epsilonϵˉ, no separation condition. (15) is deterministic in ∥X0−X^∥1\|X^0 - \hat X\|_1∥X0−X^∥1​; the printed probabilistic hypotheses only feed Theorem 1 into the permutation claim.
  • The printed nmin⁡>rn_{\min} > rnmin​>r is replaced by the weaker nk≥1n_k \ge 1nk​≥1.
  • Davis–Kahan is stated for the leading eigenspace (s=1s = 1s=1), the only case used.
  • In Lemma 5 the thresholds are required to satisfy δk≥0\delta_k \ge 0δk​≥0, which the page leaves implicit; for a negative δk\delta_kδk​ the bound (G.4) fails at V^=V\hat V = VV^=V.

The goal quantifies over every optimal rotation OOO, not over some orthogonal matrix chosen afterwards (which could make Sk\mathcal S_kSk​ empty), and over every top-eigenvector matrix and every approximate k-means solution; a formalization that fixes U^\hat UU^ to good eigenvectors, compares only against the true labels, or drops the eigenvalue-dominance clause (allowing bottom eigenvectors) proves a different and partly false statement.

Contributions welcome: Davis–Kahan in Frobenius norm for symmetric real matrices (general sss included), the Lei–Rinaldo lemma in full, and the eigenstructure of block-constant matrices.

Selected references

  • P. R. Srivastava, P. Sarkar, G. A. Hanasusanto, A Robust Spectral Clustering Algorithm for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Models with Outliers, arXiv:1912.07546v3, 2021; Operations Research 71(1), 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.07546
  • J. Lei, A. Rinaldo, Consistency of spectral clustering in stochastic block models, Annals of Statistics 43(1), 215–237, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1274
  • Y. Yu, T. Wang, R. J. Samworth, A useful variant of the Davis–Kahan theorem for statisticians, Biometrika 102(2), 315–323, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/asv008
  • C. Davis, W. M. Kahan, The rotation of eigenvectors by a perturbation. III, SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis 7(1), 1–46, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1137/0707001
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Subset Selection with Shrinkage: Sparse Linear Modeling When the SNR Is Low V: When the SNR Is Low, Best Subset Selection Has Prediction Error at Least of Order σ²γ²k log(ep/k)Research Paper

Why a lower bound for best subsets

Best subset selection fits a linear model by least squares using at most kkk of ppp available predictors. It is the classical ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​-constrained estimator of sparse regression. Mixed-integer optimization now computes it for problems with thousands of variables (Bertsimas, King & Mazumder 2016), so its statistical behaviour matters in practice. Simulations in Hastie, Tibshirani & Tibshirani 2020 found that it predicts worse than shrinkage methods such as the Lasso when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low.

Mazumder, Radchenko and Dedieu (arXiv:1708.03288v4; Operations Research, 2023) add an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ or ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ shrinkage penalty to best subsets. They prove upper bounds of two kinds: slow rates, linear in the tuning parameter λ\lambdaλ, and fast rates, quadratic in λ\lambdaλ. Theorems 2 and 3 of the paper give them for the shrunken estimators. For best subsets, the paper only has a fast-rate bound, of order σ2klog⁡(ep/k)\sigma^2 k\log(ep/k)σ2klog(ep/k). When ∥β∗∥/σ\|\beta^*\|/\sigma∥β∗∥/σ is small, the shrunken estimators' slow rate beats that bound. Theorem 4, the goal of this mission, shows that the comparison is meaningful: in that regime best subsets really does incur an error of the order of its upper bound.

Setting

The data follow the linear model

y=Xβ∗+ϵ,y,ϵ∈Rn, β∗∈Rp,y = X\beta^* + \epsilon ,\qquad y,\epsilon\in\mathbb R^n,\ \beta^*\in\mathbb R^p ,y=Xβ∗+ϵ,y,ϵ∈Rn, β∗∈Rp,

where the design XXX is a deterministic real n×pn\times pn×p matrix whose columns have unit Euclidean norm. The noise ϵ\epsilonϵ has independent N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) entries, with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. Write ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ for the Euclidean norm, ∥v∥1=∑i∣vi∣\|v\|_1=\sum_i|v_i|∥v∥1​=∑i​∣vi​∣, supp⁡(v)={i:vi≠0}\operatorname{supp}(v)=\{i:v_i\ne0\}supp(v)={i:vi​=0} and ∥v∥0=∣supp⁡(v)∣\|v\|_0=|\operatorname{supp}(v)|∥v∥0​=∣supp(v)∣. The ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​ ball is B0(s)={u∈Rp:∥u∥0≤s}B_0(s)=\{u\in\mathbb R^p:\|u\|_0\le s\}B0​(s)={u∈Rp:∥u∥0​≤s}. The minimal sss-sparse eigenvalue of XXX is

γs=min⁡u≠0, u∈B0(s)∥Xu∥∥u∥.\gamma_s=\min_{u\ne0,\ u\in B_0(s)}\frac{\|Xu\|}{\|u\|} .γs​=u=0, u∈B0​(s)min​∥u∥∥Xu∥​.

A best-subsets solution of size kkk is any minimizer

β^ℓ0∈arg⁡min⁡ ∥y−Xβ∥2s.t.∥β∥0≤k.(1)\hat\beta_{\ell_0}\in\arg\min\ \|y-X\beta\|^2\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\|\beta\|_0\le k .\tag{1}β^​ℓ0​​∈argmin ∥y−Xβ∥2s.t.∥β∥0​≤k.(1)

A constant is universal if it does not depend on n,p,k,X,σ,β∗n,p,k,X,\sigma,\beta^*n,p,k,X,σ,β∗. The symbols ≲\lesssim≲ and ≳\gtrsim≳ mean ≤\le≤ and ≥\ge≥ up to positive universal factors. Logarithms are natural, and e=exp⁡(1)e=\exp(1)e=exp(1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 18)

There are universal constants c0,c,C>0c_0,c,C>0c0​,c,C>0 such that the following holds. Suppose 2≤k≤p2\le k\le p2≤k≤p, ∥β∗∥0≤k\|\beta^*\|_0\le k∥β∗∥0​≤k and ∥β∗∥≤c0σγkklog⁡(ep/k)\|\beta^*\|\le c_0\sigma\gamma_k\sqrt{k\log(ep/k)}∥β∗∥≤c0​σγk​klog(ep/k)​. Then, with probability at least 1−2(ep/k)−cγk2k−(ep/k)−k1-2(ep/k)^{-c\gamma_k^2k}-(ep/k)^{-k}1−2(ep/k)−cγk2​k−(ep/k)−k, every best-subsets solution satisfies

∥Xβ^ℓ0−Xβ∗∥2 ≥ C σ2γk2 klog⁡(ep/k).\|X\hat\beta_{\ell_0}-X\beta^*\|^2\ \ge\ C\,\sigma^2\gamma_k^2\,k\log(ep/k).∥Xβ^​ℓ0​​−Xβ∗∥2 ≥ Cσ2γk2​klog(ep/k).

The constants are left unfixed, as in the paper. The statement asserts the order of the error, which is what the comparison with the upper bounds needs.

Milestones

  1. Maurey approximation (p. 44). For unit columns and every β∗\beta^*β∗, some β~∗\tilde\beta^*β~​∗ with ∥β~∗∥0≤k/2\|\tilde\beta^*\|_0\le k/2∥β~​∗∥0​≤k/2 has ∥Xβ∗−Xβ~∗∥2≤2∥β∗∥12/k\|X\beta^*-X\tilde\beta^*\|^2\le2\|\beta^*\|_1^2/k∥Xβ∗−Xβ~​∗∥2≤2∥β∗∥12​/k.
  2. (39) (p. 44). With Δ∗=Xβ∗−Xβ~∗\Delta^*=X\beta^*-X\tilde\beta^*Δ∗=Xβ∗−Xβ~​∗, define G(β)=∥y−Xβ∥2−∥y−Xβ~∗∥2G(\beta)=\|y-X\beta\|^2-\|y-X\tilde\beta^*\|^2G(β)=∥y−Xβ∥2−∥y−Xβ~​∗∥2 and H(u)=∥Xu∥2−2(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤XuH(u)=\|Xu\|^2-2(\Delta^*+\epsilon)^\top XuH(u)=∥Xu∥2−2(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤Xu. Then G(β)G(\beta)G(β) equals ∥Xβ−Xβ~∗∥2+2(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤(Xβ~∗−Xβ)\|X\beta-X\tilde\beta^*\|^2+2(\Delta^*+\epsilon)^\top(X\tilde\beta^*-X\beta)∥Xβ−Xβ~​∗∥2+2(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤(Xβ~​∗−Xβ), and min⁡∥β∥0≤kG≤min⁡H(u)\min_{\|\beta\|_0\le k}G\le\min H(u)min∥β∥0​≤k​G≤minH(u) over uuu supported off supp⁡(β~∗)\operatorname{supp}(\tilde\beta^*)supp(β~​∗) with ∥u∥0≤k/2\|u\|_0\le k/2∥u∥0​≤k/2.
  3. (40) (p. 45). min⁡∥β∥0≤kG(β)≤−max⁡v∈Vk∣(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤Xv∣2\min_{\|\beta\|_0\le k}G(\beta)\le-\max_{v\in\mathcal V_k}|(\Delta^*+\epsilon)^\top Xv|^2min∥β∥0​≤k​G(β)≤−maxv∈Vk​​∣(Δ∗+ϵ)⊤Xv∣2, where Vk\mathcal V_kVk​ is the set of vvv supported off supp⁡(β~∗)\operatorname{supp}(\tilde\beta^*)supp(β~​∗) with ∥v∥0≤k/2\|v\|_0\le k/2∥v∥0​≤k/2 and ∥Xv∥=1\|Xv\|=1∥Xv∥=1.
  4. Lemma 1 (p. 44). Let SSS have qqq elements and let s∈[1,q]s\in[1,q]s∈[1,q] be an integer. Then max⁡∣ϵ⊤Xv∣≳σγ2sslog⁡(eq/s)\max|\epsilon^\top Xv|\gtrsim\sigma\gamma_{2s}\sqrt{s\log(eq/s)}max∣ϵ⊤Xv∣≳σγ2s​slog(eq/s)​ over supp⁡(v)⊆S\operatorname{supp}(v)\subseteq Ssupp(v)⊆S, ∥v∥0≤s\|v\|_0\le s∥v∥0​≤s, ∥Xv∥=1\|Xv\|=1∥Xv∥=1, with probability at least 1−2(eq/s)−c~γ2s2s1-2(eq/s)^{-\tilde c\gamma_{2s}^2s}1−2(eq/s)−c~γ2s2​s.

Significance

Theorem 4 matches the fast-rate upper bound for best subsets from Corollary 1 of the paper. When γk\gamma_kγk​ is bounded below, the prediction error of best subsets is of exact order σ2klog⁡(ep/k)\sigma^2k\log(ep/k)σ2klog(ep/k) in the low-SNR regime (Remark 10). This is the theoretical counterpart of the empirical observation that best subsets overfits at low SNR. It is also what makes the paper's case for shrinkage a theorem rather than a comparison of upper bounds. The paper's Proposition 4 applies it to a concrete correlated design, where it gives a ratio of prediction errors between best subsets and its ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-shrunken version that grows with kkk.

The result is proved in the paper; this mission formalizes it. No formalization of this result exists on the platform. The mission also produces a reusable Gaussian lower bound on sparse correlations (Lemma 1) and a deterministic reduction of the best-subsets objective, (39)–(40), which are of independent use for ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​ estimators.

Difficulty

An upper bound on best subsets follows from comparing β^ℓ0\hat\beta_{\ell_0}β^​ℓ0​​ with β∗\beta^*β∗ in a basic inequality. A lower bound must hold for every minimizer, and β∗\beta^*β∗ itself gives no lower bound. The first idea is to compare with the noiseless fit. It fails because the noise can be fitted by sparse directions, which is exactly the effect to be quantified. The difficult step is Lemma 1. It requires a large set of sparse directions that remain separated after multiplication by XXX, a lower bound on the expected maximum of a Gaussian process over that set, and concentration of that maximum around its mean, with all constants universal. A second subtlety is that the statement is about every minimizer of a nonconvex problem, so the proof has to bound the objective rather than the estimator.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and Fin p → ℝ, with indices starting at 0. The design is X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ. The Euclidean norm, ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm, support and ∥⋅∥0\|\cdot\|_0∥⋅∥0​ are explicit definitions, since Mathlib's norm on Fin m → ℝ is the sup norm. γs\gamma_sγs​ is an infimum over the nonzero vectors with ∥u∥0≤s\|u\|_0\le s∥u∥0​≤s; this set is nonempty when p,s≥1p,s\ge1p,s≥1, and every ratio is ≥0\ge0≥0. The noise law is the product of nnn centred Gaussians of variance σ2\sigma^2σ2 on Rn\mathbb R^nRn. "With probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η" means that a measurable set of noise vectors of probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η exists on which the conclusion holds. Best subsets is an argmin predicate: Theorem 4 quantifies over every minimizer, and existence is neither assumed nor needed. Universal constants are quantified before every other parameter. "∥⋅∥0≤k/2\|\cdot\|_0\le k/2∥⋅∥0​≤k/2" is a comparison of real numbers.

The model consists of XXX, β∗\beta^*β∗ (with f∗=Xβ∗f^*=X\beta^*f∗=Xβ∗), ϵ\epsilonϵ and its Gaussian law, the estimator (1), and the minimal sparse eigenvalue γs\gamma_sγs​.

Two hypotheses are pinned relative to the printed theorem:

  • k≥2k\ge2k≥2, because the statement is false for k=1k=1k=1. Take every column equal to e1e_1e1​ and β∗=0\beta^*=0β∗=0: the error is ϵ12\epsilon_1^2ϵ12​, while the bound demands order σ2log⁡(ep)\sigma^2\log(ep)σ2log(ep) with probability tending to one.
  • ∥β∗∥0≤k\|\beta^*\|_0\le k∥β∗∥0​≤k, because the proof uses ∥β∗∥1\|\beta^*\|_1∥β∗∥1​, which the printed ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ hypothesis controls only for sparse β∗\beta^*β∗, and §3.4 places the theorem in Corollary 1's setting β∗∈B0(k)\beta^*\in B_0(k)β∗∈B0​(k).

The milestones carry neither pin. Because the constants are existential, a formalization in which c0c_0c0​, ccc or CCC may depend on ppp, kkk or XXX would be trivial, and is ruled out by quantifying them first. A version asserting the bound for some minimizer would be weaker than the theorem.

Not formalized here: the upper bounds (Theorems 2, 3, 5), the noise events of Theorem 1, Corollaries 1–6, Propositions 3–4, and the numerical experiments. The proof of the goal also uses Theorem 1's event G2k\mathcal G_{2k}G2k​, which belongs to a separate mission of this series. Proved platform results that a proof of Lemma 1 can use include Sudakov minoration for separated Gaussian families (HighDimProb.RandomProcesses.sudakov_minoration_finite_separated), Gaussian Lipschitz concentration (HighDimStat.TailBounds.lipschitz_gaussian_concentration) and a lower bound on Gaussian maxima (HighDimProb.RandomProcesses.standard_gaussian_max_lower_bound). Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and on supporting lemmas: a packing of sparse sign vectors (Gilbert–Varshamov type), and the approximation of ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-bounded vectors by sparse ones.

Selected references

  • R. Mazumder, P. Radchenko, A. Dedieu, Subset Selection with Shrinkage: Sparse Linear Modeling When the SNR Is Low, Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:1708.03288v4, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.03288v4
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, Annals of Statistics 44(2), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
  • T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, R. Tibshirani, Best Subset, Forward Stepwise or Lasso? Analysis and Recommendations Based on Extensive Comparisons, Statistical Science 35(4), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1214/19-STS733
  • P. C. Bellec, G. Lecué, A. B. Tsybakov, Slope meets Lasso: improved oracle bounds and optimality, Annals of Statistics 46(6B), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1214/17-AOS1670
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability, Cambridge University Press, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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Differential GeometryOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Zeroth-Order Riemannian Derivative Estimation and Optimization 2: ZO-RSGD Has Average Expected Squared Riemannian Gradient Norm at Most 4L(f(x₀) − f(x*))/(N+1) + 2μ²L²(d+6)³ + 16(d+4)σ²/mResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems are posed over a manifold rather than a vector space: orthogonality constraints (the Stiefel manifold), unit-norm constraints (the sphere), fixed-rank matrices. In some of them the objective can only be evaluated, not differentiated. Black-box adversarial attacks on a neural network with a norm-constrained perturbation, hyperparameter tuning and simulation-based objectives are examples, and in all of them each function value is also noisy. Zeroth-order (derivative-free) methods replace the gradient by a random finite-difference estimate built from function values alone.

In Euclidean space the analysis of such methods is well developed. Nesterov and Spokoiny (2017) analysed Gaussian-smoothing estimators for deterministic objectives, and Ghadimi and Lan (2013) gave the first non-asymptotic stationarity rates for stochastic nonconvex objectives (the RSGF method). Li, Balasubramanian and Ma (arXiv:2003.11238, published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) carried this programme to embedded submanifolds. They estimate the Riemannian gradient by projecting a Gaussian vector onto the tangent space and moving along a retraction, and they prove convergence rates for the resulting methods. This mission formalizes their rate for the stochastic method, ZO-RSGD (Theorem 3.2).

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real inner product space (the paper's Rn\mathbb R^nRn), and let M⊆E\mathcal M \subseteq EM⊆E be a C1C^1C1 embedded submanifold of dimension ddd. The tangent space TxMT_x\mathcal MTx​M at x∈Mx \in \mathcal Mx∈M is the linear span of the tangent cone of M\mathcal MM at xxx. For a submanifold this is the set of velocities γ′(0)\gamma'(0)γ′(0) of curves in M\mathcal MM through xxx, and it is a subspace of dimension ddd. M\mathcal MM carries the metric induced by the inner product of EEE, and PxP_xPx​ denotes the orthogonal projection of EEE onto TxMT_x\mathcal MTx​M.

A retraction is a map RRR, (x,η)↦Rx(η)(x, \eta) \mapsto R_x(\eta)(x,η)↦Rx​(η). For every x∈Mx \in \mathcal Mx∈M it sends all of TxMT_x\mathcal MTx​M into M\mathcal MM and is smooth on TxMT_x\mathcal MTx​M, with Rx(0)=xR_x(0) = xRx​(0)=x and differential the identity at 000. The Riemannian gradient of a differentiable fff is grad⁡f(x)=Px∇f(x)\operatorname{grad} f(x) = P_x \nabla f(x)gradf(x)=Px​∇f(x).

The objective is stochastic, f(x)=EξF(x,ξ)f(x) = \mathbb E_\xi F(x, \xi)f(x)=Eξ​F(x,ξ), with noise ξ\xiξ distributed according to a probability measure PξP_\xiPξ​. Two assumptions are imposed:

  • Assumption 2.1 (LLL-retraction-smoothness). For almost every ξ\xiξ, ∣F(Rx(η),ξ)−F(x,ξ)−⟨grad⁡F(x,ξ),η⟩∣≤L2∥η∥2|F(R_x(\eta),\xi) - F(x,\xi) - \langle \operatorname{grad}F(x,\xi), \eta\rangle| \le \frac L2\|\eta\|^2∣F(Rx​(η),ξ)−F(x,ξ)−⟨gradF(x,ξ),η⟩∣≤2L​∥η∥2 for all x∈Mx \in \mathcal Mx∈M and η∈TxM\eta \in T_x\mathcal Mη∈Tx​M.
  • Assumption 2.3 (unbiased oracle, bounded variance). For every x∈Mx \in \mathcal Mx∈M, EξF(x,ξ)=f(x)\mathbb E_\xi F(x,\xi) = f(x)Eξ​F(x,ξ)=f(x), Eξgrad⁡F(x,ξ)=grad⁡f(x)\mathbb E_\xi \operatorname{grad}F(x,\xi) = \operatorname{grad}f(x)Eξ​gradF(x,ξ)=gradf(x) and Eξ∥grad⁡F(x,ξ)−grad⁡f(x)∥2≤σ2\mathbb E_\xi\|\operatorname{grad}F(x,\xi) - \operatorname{grad}f(x)\|^2 \le \sigma^2Eξ​∥gradF(x,ξ)−gradf(x)∥2≤σ2.

Given a smoothing parameter μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and a batch size mmm, draw mmm independent pairs (u0,i,ξi)(u_{0,i}, \xi_i)(u0,i​,ξi​), each with u0,i∼N(0,I)u_{0,i} \sim \mathcal N(0, I)u0,i​∼N(0,I) independent of ξi∼Pξ\xi_i \sim P_\xiξi​∼Pξ​, and put ui=Pxu0,iu_i = P_x u_{0,i}ui​=Px​u0,i​. The mini-batch zeroth-order Riemannian gradient is

gˉμ,ξ(x)=1m∑i=1mF(Rx(μui),ξi)−F(x,ξi)μ ui.\bar g_{\mu,\xi}(x) = \frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m \frac{F(R_x(\mu u_i), \xi_i) - F(x, \xi_i)}{\mu}\,u_i .gˉ​μ,ξ​(x)=m1​i=1∑m​μF(Rx​(μui​),ξi​)−F(x,ξi​)​ui​.

ZO-RSGD (Algorithm 2) starts at x0∈Mx_0 \in \mathcal Mx0​∈M and iterates xk+1=Rxk(−η^ gˉμ,ξ(xk))x_{k+1} = R_{x_k}(-\hat\eta\,\bar g_{\mu,\xi}(x_k))xk+1​=Rxk​​(−η^​gˉ​μ,ξ​(xk​)) with step η^=1/L\hat\eta = 1/Lη^​=1/L and a fresh batch at every step. x∗x^*x∗ denotes a minimizer of fff over M\mathcal MM.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

If m≥16(d+4)m \ge 16(d+4)m≥16(d+4), then for every NNN

1N+1∑k=0NE ∥grad⁡f(xk)∥2≤4L f(x0)−f(x∗)N+1+2μ2L2(d+6)3+16(d+4)mσ2.\frac{1}{N+1}\sum_{k=0}^{N}\mathbb E\,\|\operatorname{grad} f(x_k)\|^2 \le 4L\,\frac{f(x_0) - f(x^*)}{N+1} + 2\mu^2L^2(d+6)^3 + \frac{16(d+4)}{m}\sigma^2 .N+11​k=0∑N​E∥gradf(xk​)∥2≤4LN+1f(x0​)−f(x∗)​+2μ2L2(d+6)3+m16(d+4)​σ2.

The constants are the paper's own. The goal states the rate for every μ\muμ, mmm and NNN. It does not state the parameter choices μ=O(ϵ/d3/2)\mu = O(\epsilon/d^{3/2})μ=O(ϵ/d3/2), m=O(dσ2/ϵ2)m = O(d\sigma^2/\epsilon^2)m=O(dσ2/ϵ2), N=O(1/ϵ2)N = O(1/\epsilon^2)N=O(1/ϵ2) that follow from it.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2.1. For a ddd-dimensional subspace X\mathcal XX with projection PPP, u=Pu0u = Pu_0u=Pu0​ and x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X: E⟨x,u⟩u=x\mathbb E\langle x,u\rangle u = xE⟨x,u⟩u=x and E⟨x,u⟩2=∥x∥2\mathbb E\langle x,u\rangle^2 = \|x\|^2E⟨x,u⟩2=∥x∥2.
  • Lemma 2.2 (Nesterov–Spokoiny). E∥u∥p≤(n+p)p/2\mathbb E\|u\|^p \le (n+p)^{p/2}E∥u∥p≤(n+p)p/2 for a standard Gaussian uuu on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and p≥2p \ge 2p≥2. This is already proved on the platform and is reused.
  • Corollary 2.1. E∥Pu0∥p≤(d+p)p/2\mathbb E\|Pu_0\|^p \le (d+p)^{p/2}E∥Pu0​∥p≤(d+p)p/2.
  • Proposition 2.1(a). ∥E gμ(x)−grad⁡f(x)∥≤μL2(d+3)3/2\|\mathbb E\,g_\mu(x) - \operatorname{grad}f(x)\| \le \frac{\mu L}{2}(d+3)^{3/2}∥Egμ​(x)−gradf(x)∥≤2μL​(d+3)3/2 for the single-sample estimator gμg_\mugμ​.
  • Lemma 3.1. E∥gˉμ,ξ(x)−grad⁡f(x)∥2≤μ2L2(d+6)3+8(d+4)mσ2+8(d+4)m∥grad⁡f(x)∥2\mathbb E\|\bar g_{\mu,\xi}(x) - \operatorname{grad}f(x)\|^2 \le \mu^2L^2(d+6)^3 + \frac{8(d+4)}{m}\sigma^2 + \frac{8(d+4)}{m}\|\operatorname{grad}f(x)\|^2E∥gˉ​μ,ξ​(x)−gradf(x)∥2≤μ2L2(d+6)3+m8(d+4)​σ2+m8(d+4)​∥gradf(x)∥2.

Significance

Theorem 3.2 is the basic complexity result for derivative-free stochastic optimization on manifolds. With the parameter choices of (3.10) it gives an ϵ\epsilonϵ-stationary point in expectation after O(d/ϵ4)O(d/\epsilon^4)O(d/ϵ4) noisy function evaluations. The dependence is on the manifold dimension ddd, not on the ambient dimension nnn. This matches the Euclidean rate of Ghadimi and Lan with nnn replaced by ddd, and it is what makes projected-Gaussian estimators attractive when d≪nd \ll nd≪n (for example, low-dimensional Stiefel manifolds embedded in large matrix spaces).

The results are proved in the paper (main text, p. 17, and Appendix C) but, to our knowledge, none of them has been machine-checked. The Euclidean Gaussian moment bound (Lemma 2.2) is formalized on the platform. The Euclidean RSGF results of Ghadimi and Lan are stated on the platform, and they are different statements: they use x+μux + \mu ux+μu instead of a retraction, the full space instead of a tangent space, and a random output index. A complete formalization would also produce reusable infrastructure: Gaussian identities for orthogonal projections, the projected-Gaussian moment bound, and a template for proving stationarity rates of random iterates on a product probability space.

Difficulty

The Euclidean argument relies on a smoothed function fμ(x)=Ef(x+μu)f_\mu(x) = \mathbb E f(x + \mu u)fμ​(x)=Ef(x+μu) whose gradient is exactly the mean of the estimator. That identity has no Riemannian analogue: Rx(μu)R_x(\mu u)Rx​(μu) is not a translate, so E gμ(x)\mathbb E\,g_\mu(x)Egμ​(x) is not the gradient of any smoothed function. The bias in Proposition 2.1(a) has to be bounded directly from Assumption 2.1, and this is why the estimator is only approximately unbiased.

The convergence proof needs a one-step descent inequality conditioned on the past. The direction at step kkk is projected onto TxkMT_{x_k}\mathcal MTxk​​M, which depends on all earlier draws, so the conditional bound of Lemma 3.1 must be integrated against the product law of the batches. A naive reading that samples every direction from one fixed subspace, or that treats the iterates as deterministic, does not describe the algorithm. A further subtlety is that the gradient term of Lemma 3.1 must be absorbed by the descent of one step. This requires the batch to be large compared with the dimension, m≥16(d+4)m \ge 16(d+4)m≥16(d+4).

Formalization scope

  • EEE is any finite-dimensional real inner product space with its Borel σ-algebra. The Gaussian is Mathlib's stdGaussian E.
  • M\mathcal MM and its dimension are given by the published ProjLikeRetr.Retractor.IsSubmanifold 1 d M (a C1C^1C1 coordinate-slice submanifold), so ddd is tied to M\mathcal MM and is never a free number. TxMT_x\mathcal MTx​M is the published ProjLikeRetr.Retractor.tangentSpace M x, never an arbitrary subspace.
  • The retraction is defined on all of each tangent space, as the paper requires (Assumption 2.1 holds "for all η∈TxM\eta \in T_x\mathcal Mη∈Tx​M, i.e., ρx=∞\rho_x = \inftyρx​=∞"). The objective fff and the samples F(⋅,ξ)F(\cdot,\xi)F(⋅,ξ) are assumed differentiable rather than smooth, which is all the gradient formula (2.3) uses.
  • Added hypotheses. The goal assumes m≥16(d+4)m \ge 16(d+4)m≥16(d+4). The paper's proof assumes it explicitly, but the theorem statement omits it. The goal also assumes that (x,η)↦Rx(η)(x,\eta) \mapsto R_x(\eta)(x,η)↦Rx​(η) and x↦Pxx \mapsto P_xx↦Px​ are measurable, so that the iterates are random variables; this holds for closed M\mathcal MM such as spheres and Stiefel manifolds. Lemma 3.1 is stated for every m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. The paper's last proof step uses m≥2m \ge 2m≥2, but the bound holds for m=1m = 1m=1 as well.
  • The iterates are defined for every kkk on the sequence space of i.i.d. batches (the algorithm without a stopping index), so xN+1x_{N+1}xN+1​ exists.
  • No junk expectations. Every expectation of a nonnegative quantity is a lower Lebesgue integral compared with ENNReal.ofReal of the bound. Every vector-valued expectation comes with an integrability conclusion, and Assumption 2.3 carries the integrability of F(x,⋅)F(x,\cdot)F(x,⋅) and grad⁡F(x,⋅)\operatorname{grad}F(x,\cdot)gradF(x,⋅). So no statement can hold because a Bochner integral defaulted to 000.
  • The O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) parameter choices (3.10) and the oracle complexity mN=O(d/ϵ4)mN = O(d/\epsilon^4)mN=O(d/ϵ4) are not formalized.
  • The development needs projections of Gaussian measures onto subspaces, moments of Gaussian norms, conditional expectation along an i.i.d. sequence of batches, and telescoping. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are general lemmas about the push-forward of stdGaussian under an orthogonal projection.

Selected references

  • J. Li, K. Balasubramanian, S. Ma, Stochastic Zeroth-Order Riemannian Derivative Estimation and Optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023. Preprint arXiv:2003.11238v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.11238
  • Y. Nesterov, V. Spokoiny, Random Gradient-Free Minimization of Convex Functions, Foundations of Computational Mathematics 17, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-015-9296-2
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 23(4), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5549
  • K. Balasubramanian, S. Ghadimi, Zeroth-Order Nonconvex Stochastic Optimization: Handling Constraints, High Dimensionality, and Saddle Points, Foundations of Computational Mathematics, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.06474
  • N. Boumal, P.-A. Absil, C. Cartis, Global Rates of Convergence for Nonconvex Optimization on Manifolds, IMA Journal of Numerical Analysis, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.08101
  • P.-A. Absil, R. Mahony, R. Sepulchre, Optimization Algorithms on Matrix Manifolds, Princeton University Press, 2008.
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Reinforcement LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Breaking the Sample Size Barrier in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with a Generative Model 1: The Perturbed Model-Based Planner Is ε-Optimal w.p. 1−δ Once N ≥ c₀log(|S||A|/((1−γ)εδ))/((1−γ)³ε²)Research Paper

Motivation

A generative model lets a planner request independent next-state samples for any state-action pair. This is a useful idealization for studying how many simulator calls are needed before a policy computed from an estimated model performs well in the true environment. Li, Wei, Chi, and Chen show that a small independent perturbation of the rewards lets a model-based planner meet a sample-size bound with cubic dependence on the effective horizon 1/(1−γ)1/(1-\gamma)1/(1−γ), while providing guarantees for both values and action values (Li et al., 2024). This mission isolates their perturbed-planning result and the source lemmas that support it.

Setting

A finite discounted Markov decision process consists of a state set SSS, an action set AAA, a transition probability P(s′∣s,a)P(s'\mid s,a)P(s′∣s,a), an immediate reward r(s,a)∈[0,1]r(s,a)\in[0,1]r(s,a)∈[0,1], and a discount factor γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1). A deterministic policy π:S→A\pi:S\to Aπ:S→A chooses an action at each state. Its value Vπ(s)V^\pi(s)Vπ(s) is the expected sum of rewards, discounted by γt\gamma^tγt, from state sss. Its action value Qπ(s,a)Q^\pi(s,a)Qπ(s,a) takes action aaa first and follows π\piπ thereafter. The optimal values V⋆V^\starV⋆ and Q⋆Q^\starQ⋆ are those of an optimal deterministic policy; equivalently, Q⋆(s,a)=r(s,a)+γ∑s′P(s′∣s,a)V⋆(s′)Q^\star(s,a)=r(s,a)+\gamma\sum_{s'}P(s'\mid s,a)V^\star(s')Q⋆(s,a)=r(s,a)+γ∑s′​P(s′∣s,a)V⋆(s′).

For each (s,a)(s,a)(s,a), draw NNN independent next states from P(⋅∣s,a)P(\cdot\mid s,a)P(⋅∣s,a), independently across pairs. The empirical kernel P^\widehat PP is their frequency table. Independently draw one reward perturbation ζ(s,a)∼Unif⁡(0,ξ)\zeta(s,a)\sim\operatorname{Unif}(0,\xi)ζ(s,a)∼Unif(0,ξ) per pair and set rp=r+ζr_p=r+\zetarp​=r+ζ. The planner returns an optimal deterministic policy π^p⋆\widehat\pi_p^\starπp⋆​ for the empirical MDP (S,A,P^,rp,γ)(S,A,\widehat P,r_p,\gamma)(S,A,P,rp​,γ). The performance claim evaluates this policy under the original PPP and rrr, so the perturbation changes policy selection but not the evaluation target.

Formalization targets

Perturbed model-based planning

Theorem 1 of Li et al. asserts that absolute constants c0,c1>0c_0,c_1>0c0​,c1​>0 can be chosen before SSS, AAA, PPP, rrr, γ\gammaγ, ε\varepsilonε, and δ\deltaδ. For δ>0\delta>0δ>0, 0<ε≤1/(1−γ)0<\varepsilon\le1/(1-\gamma)0<ε≤1/(1−γ), and ξ=c1(1−γ)ε/(∣S∣5∣A∣5)\xi=c_1(1-\gamma)\varepsilon/(|S|^5|A|^5)ξ=c1​(1−γ)ε/(∣S∣5∣A∣5), the sample-size condition is

N≥c0log⁡ ⁣(∣S∣∣A∣/((1−γ)εδ))(1−γ)3ε2.N\ge\frac{c_0\log\!\bigl(|S||A|/((1-\gamma)\varepsilon\delta)\bigr)}{(1-\gamma)^3\varepsilon^2}.N≥(1−γ)3ε2c0​log(∣S∣∣A∣/((1−γ)εδ))​.

With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over both the samples and the perturbation, every optimal policy of the perturbed empirical MDP simultaneously satisfies

Vπ^p⋆(s)≥V⋆(s)−ε,Qπ^p⋆(s,a)≥Q⋆(s,a)−γεfor all (s,a).V^{\widehat\pi_p^\star}(s)\ge V^\star(s)-\varepsilon,\qquad Q^{\widehat\pi_p^\star}(s,a)\ge Q^\star(s,a)-\gamma\varepsilon\quad\text{for all }(s,a).Vπp⋆​(s)≥V⋆(s)−ε,Qπp⋆​(s,a)≥Q⋆(s,a)−γεfor all (s,a).

The milestone list follows the paper's numbered statements: fixed-policy and Bernstein-condition value bounds (Lemmas 1–2), calibrated state-action absorbing models and their finite reward grid (Lemma 3, (88), Lemma 4), planning under a separated optimum (Lemma 5), separation induced by random rewards (Lemma 6), and the reward-change bound before (49). The paper's additional claim about iteration counts for empirical QVI and PI is outside this target.

Significance

The theorem gives a policy guarantee from a finite number of calls to a generative model. It bounds the true value of the selected policy at every state and its true action value at every state-action pair, rather than only the empirical objective used to select the policy. Its NNN is the number of samples per pair; the total number of transitions observed is N∣S∣∣A∣N|S||A|N∣S∣∣A∣. The statement is a theorem proved in the cited paper, not an open mathematical conjecture (Li et al., Theorem 1).

The formalization work is to turn the paper's probability experiment, policy choice, and linked inequalities into machine-checked statements and eventually machine-checked proofs. The published FoundationsML transition kernel and policy-value definitions provide reusable base objects. This mission adds a finite generative-sample law, the reward-perturbation law, and an absorbing-MDP interface. Those objects can support later formalizations of empirical planning and policy evaluation beyond this theorem. The goal and milestone proofs remain open in the present draft.

Difficulty

A fixed policy can be evaluated against an empirical transition kernel using concentration at that policy. The planner's policy depends on the same sampled kernel, so a fixed-policy bound cannot simply be applied to it. Small changes in transition frequencies may also switch the chosen optimal action when actions have nearly equal values. The paper's intermediate results specify the needed value-control and separation properties; a Lean proof must track their constants and their probability events without silently assuming that the data-dependent policy was fixed before sampling (Li et al., §§6.2–6.3).

Formalization scope

The Lean state and action types are finite, and both are nonempty where cardinalities occur in denominators. A transition kernel is a probability vector at each state-action pair. Policies are deterministic functions S→AS\to AS→A, embedded as point-mass stochastic policies for the published value definitions. V⋆V^\starV⋆ is the maximum over the finite set of deterministic policies; Q⋆Q^\starQ⋆ is r+γPV⋆r+\gamma PV^\starr+γPV⋆. Function norms are supremum norms. The empirical kernel is the frequency table of a finite array of samples, with N>0N>0N>0 in the goal because its formula divides by NNN. The independent perturbation is the uniform measure on the cube [0,ξ]S×A[0,\xi]^{S\times A}[0,ξ]S×A.

Probability claims bound the failure event. The data law is a finite product, and the auxiliary continuous draw is measured section by section. This formulation allows an outer measure for a section whose measurability is not already known; it does not let a nonmeasurable success event satisfy the result for free. The main theorem quantifies over every optimal policy of the empirical perturbed model, and its universal constants do not depend on the instance. These choices rule out treating the selected policy as arbitrary, fixing the perturbation in advance, or choosing constants after seeing the MDP.

The absorbing-MDP construction changes one transition row and one reward. The reward at that row may leave [0,1][0,1][0,1], so the underlying value function accepts arbitrary real rewards even though the main MDP has normalized rewards. Lemma 5 is stated with normalized rewards as printed. Reusable contributions include basic properties of the sampling law, optimal-policy existence, the absorbing construction, and quantitative value stability; the milestone statements themselves are the intended proof targets.

Selected references

  • G. Li, Y. Wei, Y. Chi, and Y. Chen, Breaking the Sample Size Barrier in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with a Generative Model, Operations Research, 2024; arXiv:2005.12900v8.
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Differential GeometryOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Zeroth-Order Riemannian Derivative Estimation and Optimization 1: ZO-RGD Has Average Expected Squared Riemannian Gradient Norm at Most 8(d+4)L(f(x₀) − f(x*))/(N+1) + 8(d+4)L·C(μ)Research Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in statistics and machine learning constrain the variable to a smooth manifold: orthonormal frames in sparse PCA and dictionary learning (the Stiefel manifold), unit vectors in phase retrieval (the sphere), fixed-rank matrices in matrix completion. Riemannian optimization handles these problems directly on the manifold. A step is taken in the tangent space and mapped back to the manifold by a retraction.

In several applications the objective can be evaluated but not differentiated: black-box adversarial attacks, simulation-based models, and hyperparameter or policy tuning. Zeroth-order (derivative-free) methods replace the gradient by an estimator built from function values. In Euclidean space the standard construction is Gaussian smoothing, analysed by Nesterov and Spokoiny (2017) and Ghadimi and Lan (2013). Li, Balasubramanian and Ma (arXiv:2003.11238; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) carry the construction over to embedded submanifolds. They sample a Gaussian vector, project it onto the tangent space, and use the retraction in place of the straight line x+μux+\mu ux+μu. This mission formalizes their first optimization guarantee: the convergence rate of zeroth-order Riemannian gradient descent (ZO-RGD).

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real inner product space (the ambient Rn\mathbb R^nRn). Let M⊆EM\subseteq EM⊆E be a C1C^1C1 embedded submanifold of dimension ddd. At each x∈Mx\in Mx∈M the tangent space TxMT_xMTx​M is a ddd-dimensional linear subspace of EEE; let PxP_xPx​ denote the orthogonal projection onto it. MMM carries the metric induced by the inner product of EEE.

A retraction is a map (x,η)↦Rx(η)(x,\eta)\mapsto R_x(\eta)(x,η)↦Rx​(η) such that, for every x∈Mx\in Mx∈M, RxR_xRx​ is smooth on TxMT_xMTx​M, maps TxMT_xMTx​M into MMM, satisfies Rx(0)=xR_x(0)=xRx​(0)=x, and has the identity as its differential at 000. In this mission RxR_xRx​ is defined on all of TxMT_xMTx​M.

For a differentiable f:E→Rf:E\to\mathbb Rf:E→R the Riemannian gradient is grad⁡f(x)=Px∇f(x)\operatorname{grad} f(x)=P_x\nabla f(x)gradf(x)=Px​∇f(x). Assumption 2.1 (retraction smoothness) asks for a constant L≥0L\ge0L≥0 such that

∣f(Rx(η))−f(x)−⟨grad⁡f(x),η⟩∣≤L2∥η∥2(x∈M, η∈TxM).\big|f(R_x(\eta))-f(x)-\langle \operatorname{grad} f(x),\eta\rangle\big|\le \tfrac L2\|\eta\|^2\qquad(x\in M,\ \eta\in T_xM).​f(Rx​(η))−f(x)−⟨gradf(x),η⟩​≤2L​∥η∥2(x∈M, η∈Tx​M).

Given μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and a standard Gaussian vector u0∼N(0,In)u_0\sim N(0,I_n)u0​∼N(0,In​) of EEE, set u=Pxu0u=P_xu_0u=Px​u0​. The zeroth-order Riemannian gradient estimator is

gμ(x)=f(Rx(μu))−f(x)μ u.g_\mu(x)=\frac{f(R_x(\mu u))-f(x)}{\mu}\,u .gμ​(x)=μf(Rx​(μu))−f(x)​u.

ZO-RGD (Algorithm 1) starts at x0∈Mx_0\in Mx0​∈M, draws independent Gaussian vectors u00,u01,…u_0^0,u_0^1,\dotsu00​,u01​,…, and sets xk+1=Rxk(−η^ gμ(xk))x_{k+1}=R_{x_k}(-\hat\eta\, g_\mu(x_k))xk+1​=Rxk​​(−η^​gμ​(xk​)), where gμ(xk)g_\mu(x_k)gμ​(xk​) uses uk=Pxku0ku_k=P_{x_k}u_0^kuk​=Pxk​​u0k​. The step size is η^=1/(2(d+4)L)\hat\eta=1/(2(d+4)L)η^​=1/(2(d+4)L). Let x∗∈Mx^*\in Mx∗∈M be a minimizer of fff over MMM.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

For every N≥0N\ge0N≥0,

1N+1∑k=0NE ∥grad⁡f(xk)∥2≤4η^(f(x0)−f(x∗)N+1+C(μ)),\frac1{N+1}\sum_{k=0}^{N}\mathbb E\,\|\operatorname{grad} f(x_k)\|^2\le\frac4{\hat\eta}\left(\frac{f(x_0)-f(x^*)}{N+1}+C(\mu)\right),N+11​k=0∑N​E∥gradf(xk​)∥2≤η^​4​(N+1f(x0​)−f(x∗)​+C(μ)),

where 4/η^=8(d+4)L4/\hat\eta=8(d+4)L4/η^​=8(d+4)L and

C(μ)=μ2L16(d+3)3d+4+μ2L16(d+6)3d+4+μ2L16(d+6)3(d+4)2.C(\mu)=\frac{\mu^2L}{16}\frac{(d+3)^3}{d+4}+\frac{\mu^2L}{16}\frac{(d+6)^3}{d+4}+\frac{\mu^2L}{16}\frac{(d+6)^3}{(d+4)^2}.C(μ)=16μ2L​d+4(d+3)3​+16μ2L​d+4(d+6)3​+16μ2L​(d+4)2(d+6)3​.

Milestones

These are the paper's own intermediate results (§2.2, p. 8):

  1. Lemma 2.1. For a subspace X\mathcal XX with projection PPP, u=Pu0u=Pu_0u=Pu0​ and x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X: E⟨x,u⟩u=x\mathbb E\langle x,u\rangle u=xE⟨x,u⟩u=x and E⟨x,u⟩2=∥x∥2\mathbb E\langle x,u\rangle^2=\|x\|^2E⟨x,u⟩2=∥x∥2.
  2. Lemma 2.2 (Nesterov–Spokoiny). E∥u∥p≤(n+p)p/2\mathbb E\|u\|^p\le(n+p)^{p/2}E∥u∥p≤(n+p)p/2 for p≥2p\ge2p≥2. This result is already on the platform as a proved theorem and is referenced.
  3. Corollary 2.1. If dim⁡X=d\dim\mathcal X=ddimX=d, then E∥Pu0∥p≤(d+p)p/2\mathbb E\|Pu_0\|^p\le(d+p)^{p/2}E∥Pu0​∥p≤(d+p)p/2.
  4. Proposition 2.1(a). ∥Egμ(x)−grad⁡f(x)∥≤μL2(d+3)3/2\|\mathbb E g_\mu(x)-\operatorname{grad} f(x)\|\le\frac{\mu L}{2}(d+3)^{3/2}∥Egμ​(x)−gradf(x)∥≤2μL​(d+3)3/2.
  5. Proposition 2.1(b). ∥grad⁡f(x)∥2≤2∥Egμ(x)∥2+μ22L2(d+6)3\|\operatorname{grad} f(x)\|^2\le2\|\mathbb E g_\mu(x)\|^2+\frac{\mu^2}{2}L^2(d+6)^3∥gradf(x)∥2≤2∥Egμ​(x)∥2+2μ2​L2(d+6)3.
  6. Proposition 2.1(c). E∥gμ(x)∥2≤μ22L2(d+6)3+2(d+4)∥grad⁡f(x)∥2\mathbb E\|g_\mu(x)\|^2\le\frac{\mu^2}{2}L^2(d+6)^3+2(d+4)\|\operatorname{grad} f(x)\|^2E∥gμ​(x)∥2≤2μ2​L2(d+6)3+2(d+4)∥gradf(x)∥2.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 shows that ZO-RGD reaches an ϵ\epsilonϵ-stationary point in expectation using O(d/ϵ2)O(d/\epsilon^2)O(d/ϵ2) function evaluations, provided the smoothing parameter is of order ϵ/d3/2\epsilon/d^{3/2}ϵ/d3/2. The dimension that enters is the intrinsic dimension ddd of the manifold, not the ambient dimension nnn. For the Stiefel manifold of n×pn\times pn×p orthonormal frames this is the difference between np−p(p+1)/2np-p(p+1)/2np−p(p+1)/2 and npnpnp, and for the sphere between n−1n-1n−1 and nnn. More importantly, the estimator never explores normal directions. The three estimates of Proposition 2.1 are the toolkit that the paper reuses for its stochastic (ZO-RSGD), proximal (ZO-ManPG) and second-order variants.

The paper proves these results on paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission adds three things. It gives a precise model of a random iterate sequence on a submanifold, driven by the infinite product of Gaussian draws. It formalizes the projected-Gaussian identities, which are reusable for any method that samples in tangent spaces. And it pins down the constants. In checking the constants, the printed Proposition 2.1(b) turned out to be false for large LLL (its proof yields L2L^2L2, not LLL), and the middle term of the printed C(μ)C(\mu)C(μ) inherits that slip. The statements here carry the constants the proofs actually give.

Difficulty

In Euclidean space, E gμ(x)\mathbb E\,g_\mu(x)Egμ​(x) is exactly the gradient of the Gaussian-smoothed function fμ(x)=Ef(x+μu)f_\mu(x)=\mathbb E f(x+\mu u)fμ​(x)=Ef(x+μu), and the analysis runs on fμf_\mufμ​. Once a retraction replaces x+μux+\mu ux+μu, no smoothed function has Egμ\mathbb E g_\muEgμ​ as its gradient. The bias must be estimated directly from Assumption 2.1, which controls f∘Rxf\circ R_xf∘Rx​ only along the tangent space. The moment bounds must then be taken for a Gaussian projected onto a subspace that changes with xxx.

In the descent argument, the direction uku_kuk​ is sampled in TxkMT_{x_k}MTxk​​M, which depends on all earlier draws. The expectation of step kkk is therefore conditional on the past. Summing the one-step inequality requires conditional expectations on the product space, together with measurability of the iterate map. Finiteness of Ef(xk)\mathbb E f(x_k)Ef(xk​) is not given and must be handled as well.

Formalization scope

  • Space. The ambient space is a finite-dimensional real inner product space EEE. The standard Gaussian is Mathlib's stdGaussian E, so κ−1∫⋯e−∥u0∥2/2du0\kappa^{-1}\int\cdots e^{-\|u_0\|^2/2}du_0κ−1∫⋯e−∥u0​∥2/2du0​ becomes integration against it.
  • Manifold and tangent spaces. The manifold is given by the published coordinate-slice predicate ProjLikeRetr.Retractor.IsSubmanifold 1 d M, which ties ddd to MMM. The tangent space is the published ProjLikeRetr.Retractor.tangentSpace M x, the span of Mathlib's tangent cone. Neither ddd nor the tangent spaces are free parameters.
  • Retraction. The retraction is global: Assumption 2.1 is required for every η∈TxM\eta\in T_xMη∈Tx​M (the paper's "ρx=∞\rho_x=\inftyρx​=∞"). "Smooth" means C∞C^\inftyC∞, not analytic.
  • Regularity of fff. fff is assumed differentiable on EEE, which is what the definition grad⁡f=Px∇f\operatorname{grad} f=P_x\nabla fgradf=Px​∇f needs. This is weaker than the paper's "smooth".
  • Constants. The goal takes L>0L>0L>0, because the step size divides by LLL. The milestones take L≥0L\ge0L≥0 and μ>0\mu>0μ>0.
  • Draws and iterates. The draws live on ENE^{\mathbb N}EN with the infinite product of standard Gaussian measures. The iterates are defined for every kkk: the algorithm runs without a stopping time, so the sum over k=0,…,Nk=0,\dots,Nk=0,…,N is meaningful.
  • Minimizer. x∗x^*x∗ is an attained minimizer over MMM.
  • Measurability. The goal adds two measurability hypotheses that make the iterates random variables: (x,η)↦Rx(η)(x,\eta)\mapsto R_x(\eta)(x,η)↦Rx​(η) is measurable and x↦Pxx\mapsto P_xx↦Px​ is measurable. Both hold for closed manifolds such as spheres and Stiefel manifolds.
  • Corrected constants. Proposition 2.1(b) carries L2L^2L2, and the middle term of C(μ)C(\mu)C(μ) carries LLL. The milestone texts keep the printed forms. Proposition 2.1(a) and (c) are as printed.
  • Not formalized. The parameter choices μ=O(ϵ/d3/2)\mu=O(\epsilon/d^{3/2})μ=O(ϵ/d3/2), N=O(d/ϵ2)N=O(d/\epsilon^2)N=O(d/ϵ2) in the theorem's second sentence are an O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) statement.

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out. A Bochner integral of a non-integrable function is 000, so every expectation in a conclusion is either a lower Lebesgue integral compared with a finite bound or paired with an integrability conjunct. The dimension ddd comes from the manifold, not from a free natural number. The projection is onto MMM's own tangent space, never onto an arbitrary subspace field.

A complete development needs the following infrastructure:

  • the law of Pu0P u_0Pu0​ (a standard Gaussian on the subspace);
  • Gaussian moment bounds;
  • conditional expectation along the product filtration;
  • measurability of the iterate map.

The projected-Gaussian lemmas and the iterate model are reusable for the stochastic variant (ZO-RSGD) in the companion mission. Contributions of proofs for any milestone, and of general lemmas about Gaussian measures restricted to subspaces, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Li, K. Balasubramanian, S. Ma, Stochastic Zeroth-Order Riemannian Derivative Estimation and Optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:2003.11238v3, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.11238
  • Y. Nesterov, V. Spokoiny, Random Gradient-Free Minimization of Convex Functions, Foundations of Computational Mathematics 17 (2017) 527–566. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-015-9296-2
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 23 (2013) 2341–2368. https://doi.org/10.1137/120880811
  • P.-A. Absil, R. Mahony, R. Sepulchre, Optimization Algorithms on Matrix Manifolds, Princeton University Press, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830244
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ProbabilityReinforcement LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimistic Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning: Worst-Case Regret Bounds II: Along Any h, the Empirical Transition Vector Is within 2√(log(n/ρ)Σγᵢcᵢ²/n) + 3D log(2/ρ)/n of the TruthResearch Paper

Motivation

Model-based reinforcement learning algorithms for Markov decision processes estimate each transition distribution Ps,aP_{s,a}Ps,a​ from the transitions they have observed out of the state–action pair (s,a)(s,a)(s,a). Their regret analyses then need to know how far the empirical distribution p^\hat pp^​ can be from the true one ppp. The standard tool is an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ bound on p^−p\hat p-pp^​−p, as in UCRL2 (Jaksch, Ortner and Auer, 2010), which costs a factor of order S\sqrt SS​ in the number of states SSS. What the analysis actually uses, however, is the deviation along one direction: the projection (p^−p)Th(\hat p-p)^Th(p^​−p)Th onto a bias (or value) vector hhh whose entries differ by at most the MDP's diameter DDD.

S. Agrawal and R. Jia (arXiv:1705.07041v3, published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023, as Optimistic Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning: Worst-Case Regret Bounds) prove a worst-case regret bound of order O~(DSAT)\tilde O(D\sqrt{SAT})O~(DSAT​) for an optimistic variant of posterior sampling. One ingredient of that analysis is their Proposition 5.2: a Bernstein-type bound on (p^−p)Th(\hat p-p)^Th(p^​−p)Th whose leading term is governed by a variance of hhh under ppp, written in stick-breaking form. This mission formalizes that proposition and the steps of its proof.

Setting

Fix a number of states SSS and order them 1,…,S1,\dots,S1,…,S. A probability vector p∈ΔSp\in\Delta^Sp∈ΔS has pi≥0p_i\ge0pi​≥0 and ∑ipi=1\sum_ip_i=1∑i​pi​=1. A multinoulli trial with parameter ppp is a random state XXX with P(X=i)=pi\mathbb P(X=i)=p_iP(X=i)=pi​. Draw nnn independent trials X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ and let

p^i=#{t:Xt=i}n\hat p_i=\frac{\#\{t: X_t=i\}}{n}p^​i​=n#{t:Xt​=i}​

be the empirical probability vector, the average of the one-hot outcomes. For ppp and a vector h∈RSh\in\mathbb R^Sh∈RS define the stick-breaking quantities

γi=pi(pi+1+⋯+pS)pi+⋯+pS,Hi+1=1∑j=i+1Spj∑j=i+1Shjpj,ci=hi−Hi+1.\gamma_i=\frac{p_i(p_{i+1}+\cdots+p_S)}{p_i+\cdots+p_S},\qquad H_{i+1}=\frac{1}{\sum_{j=i+1}^Sp_j}\sum_{j=i+1}^Sh_jp_j,\qquad c_i=h_i-H_{i+1}.γi​=pi​+⋯+pS​pi​(pi+1​+⋯+pS​)​,Hi+1​=∑j=i+1S​pj​1​j=i+1∑S​hj​pj​,ci​=hi​−Hi+1​.

Thus Hi+1H_{i+1}Hi+1​ is the mean of hhh under ppp conditioned on the states after iii, and cic_ici​ compares hih_ihi​ with it. The sum ∑i<Sγici2\sum_{i<S}\gamma_ic_i^2∑i<S​γi​ci2​ equals the variance of h(X)h(X)h(X) for X∼pX\sim pX∼p. In Lean these objects are gammaCoef p i, Hnext p h i, cCoef p h i, phat ω i, the law of one trial is cat p and the law of nnn trials is trialsLaw n p, all in the namespace OptimisticPSRL.Concentration.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5.2 (p. 9)

Let h∈RSh\in\mathbb R^Sh∈RS satisfy ∣hi−hi′∣≤D|h_i-h_{i'}|\le D∣hi​−hi′​∣≤D for all i,i′i,i'i,i′, let n≥96n\ge96n≥96 and ρ∈(0,1)\rho\in(0,1)ρ∈(0,1). Then, with probability at least 1−ρ1-\rho1−ρ,

∣(p^−p)Th∣≤2log⁡(n/ρ)∑i<Sγici2n+3D log⁡(2/ρ)n.\big|(\hat p-p)^Th\big|\le2\sqrt{\log(n/\rho)\sum_{i<S}\frac{\gamma_ic_i^2}{n}}+3D\,\frac{\log(2/\rho)}{n}.​(p^​−p)Th​≤2log(n/ρ)i<S∑​nγi​ci2​​​+3Dnlog(2/ρ)​.

Milestones

  1. Fact 1 (p. 17), a deterministic identity: for probability vectors p~,pˉ\tilde p,\bar pp~​,pˉ​ with stick-breaking ratios y~i=p~i/(p~i+⋯+p~S)\tilde y_i=\tilde p_i/(\tilde p_i+\cdots+\tilde p_S)y~​i​=p~​i​/(p~​i​+⋯+p~​S​) and yˉi\bar y_iyˉ​i​,
(p~−pˉ)Th=∑i(y~i−yˉi)(hi−H~i+1)(pˉi+⋯+pˉS)=∑i(y~i−yˉi)(hi−Hˉi+1)(p~i+⋯+p~S).(\tilde p-\bar p)^Th=\sum_i(\tilde y_i-\bar y_i)(h_i-\tilde H_{i+1})(\bar p_i+\cdots+\bar p_S)=\sum_i(\tilde y_i-\bar y_i)(h_i-\bar H_{i+1})(\tilde p_i+\cdots+\tilde p_S).(p~​−pˉ​)Th=i∑​(y~​i​−yˉ​i​)(hi​−H~i+1​)(pˉ​i​+⋯+pˉ​S​)=i∑​(y~​i​−yˉ​i​)(hi​−Hˉi+1​)(p~​i​+⋯+p~​S​).
  1. The projection as a sum of martingale differences (proof, p. 21): with Zt,i=ci1(Xt=i)−cipipi+⋯+pS1(Xt≥i)Z_{t,i}=c_i\mathbb 1(X_t=i)-c_i\frac{p_i}{p_i+\cdots+p_S}\mathbb 1(X_t\ge i)Zt,i​=ci​1(Xt​=i)−ci​pi​+⋯+pS​pi​​1(Xt​≥i) and Zt=∑iZt,iZ_t=\sum_iZ_{t,i}Zt​=∑i​Zt,i​,
1n∑t=1nZt=(p^−p)Th,\frac1n\sum_{t=1}^nZ_t=(\hat p-p)^Th,n1​t=1∑n​Zt​=(p^​−p)Th,

together with the two intermediate expressions of the page. 3. Uncorrelated coordinates (proof, p. 21): E[Zt,iZt,j]=0\mathbb E[Z_{t,i}Z_{t,j}]=0E[Zt,i​Zt,j​]=0 for i≠ji\ne ji=j. 4. The predictable variance (proof, p. 21): ∑t=1nE[Zt2]=∑ici2 n γi\sum_{t=1}^n\mathbb E[Z_t^2]=\sum_ic_i^2\,n\,\gamma_i∑t=1n​E[Zt2​]=∑i​ci2​nγi​. 5. Corollary B.1 (p. 26), Bernstein's inequality for bounded martingale differences with random predictable variance VnV_nVn​: for n≥96n\ge96n≥96, δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1), with probability greater than 1−δ1-\delta1−δ,

∣Mn∣≤2Vnln⁡(n/δ)+3Kln⁡(n/δ).|M_n|\le2\sqrt{V_n\ln(n/\delta)}+3K\ln(n/\delta).∣Mn​∣≤2Vn​ln(n/δ)​+3Kln(n/δ).

Significance

The result. Proposition 5.2 is the concentration half of the optimism step of the paper (Lemma 5.3): combined with an anti-concentration bound for Dirichlet samples along the same direction (Proposition 5.1), it shows that some posterior sample is optimistic along hhh with constant probability. Because the bound is stated along a single direction and is weighted by the variance of hhh rather than by DDD alone, it avoids the S\sqrt SS​ loss that an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ bound would incur, which is part of how the paper's regret bound improves on UCRL2's O~(DSAT)\tilde O(DS\sqrt{AT})O~(DSAT​). The stick-breaking form of the variance is what lets the same quantity appear on both sides of the optimism argument, in the Dirichlet bound and in the empirical bound.

Formalizing it. The proposition and its proof steps are proved on paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The regret theorem of the paper (Theorem 1) is not posed: its constants are hidden in O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) and its algorithm's parameters are given as Θ(⋅)\Theta(\cdot)Θ(⋅). Proposition 5.2, by contrast, is fully explicit. Corollary B.1 is a reusable martingale inequality with explicit constants. The predictable-variance identity and Fact 1 are exact identities about stick-breaking coordinates that recur in analyses of Dirichlet and categorical models.

Difficulty

Two steps resist the obvious approach. First, the statement carries the variance in stick-breaking form, not as Varp(h)\mathrm{Var}_p(h)Varp​(h); linking the two needs the decomposition of Fact 1 and the identity for the predictable variance, which are exact algebraic identities whose bookkeeping of tails and empty tails is error-prone. Second, the paper's own route goes through Corollary B.1, a martingale Bernstein inequality with a random variance, which rests on a peeling argument over a grid of variance levels (Seldin et al., 2012); Mathlib has neither this inequality nor a Bernstein inequality with explicit constants for bounded variables.

A known subtlety: the paper's proof, through Corollary B.1, yields the second term 3Dlog⁡(n/ρ)/n3D\log(n/\rho)/n3Dlog(n/ρ)/n, while the statement prints the smaller 3Dlog⁡(2/ρ)/n3D\log(2/\rho)/n3Dlog(2/ρ)/n. The printed statement is still true for nnn iid trials (the classical Bernstein inequality gives a bound below it), so the goal is posed as printed. The paper's own proof therefore does not establish the printed constant.

Formalization scope

  • States are Fin S with its natural order, 0-based; the paper's range i<Si<Si<S is every state but the last (belowLast S). Fact 1 holds for every ordering; the natural order covers this since states are labels.
  • Probability vectors are p : Fin S → ℝ with IsProbVec p (nonnegative, summing to one). Zero entries are allowed. A ratio whose denominator is zero evaluates to 000 (Lean's convention), which gives the values the identities need; no positivity of ppp is assumed.
  • One trial has law cat p =∑ipiδi=\sum_ip_i\delta_i=∑i​pi​δi​; nnn trials have the product law trialsLaw n p === Measure.pi. The empirical vector phat ω is computed from the sample ω : Fin n → Fin S. "With probability 1−ρ1-\rho1−ρ" is ENNReal.ofReal (1 - ρ) ≤ trialsLaw n p {good event}; Corollary B.1's "greater than 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is strict. log⁡\loglog is Real.log.
  • The proof displays (milestones 2–4) are stated in the iid reading of the proposition: the paper writes them for transitions of an MDP out of a fixed (s,a)(s,a)(s,a), with an indicator 1(st−1=s,at−1=a)\mathbb 1(s_{t-1}=s,a_{t-1}=a)1(st−1​=s,at−1​=a) and a random count τ\tauτ; here the indicator is one and τ=n\tau=nτ=n, and the conditional expectations are expectations under one draw of law ppp. Milestone 2 assumes every drawn state has positive probability (true almost surely), which the page's intermediate sum over i≤S−1i\le S-1i≤S−1 needs.
  • Corollary B.1 is posed for a general filtered probability space, with ZiZ_iZi​ Fi\mathcal F_iFi​-measurable, ∣Zi∣≤K|Z_i|\le K∣Zi​∣≤K almost surely and E[Zi∣Fi−1]=0\mathbb E[Z_i\mid\mathcal F_{i-1}]=0E[Zi​∣Fi−1​]=0.

The goal cannot be satisfied by a degenerate reading: p^\hat pp^​ is built from the sample, the measure is the nnn-fold product of the categorical law ppp, the event is the good event itself (not a complement bound), and the variance term is not identically zero (for S=2S=2S=2, p=(12,12)p=(\tfrac12,\tfrac12)p=(21​,21​) it equals (h1−h2)2/4(h_1-h_2)^2/4(h1​−h2​)2/4).

Needed infrastructure: finite-sum manipulations over tails of Fin S; a Bernstein or Freedman inequality with explicit constants (for iid bounded variables for the goal, for martingale differences for Corollary B.1). Contributions of either inequality are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome, as are alternative proofs of the goal that bypass Corollary B.1.

Selected references

  • S. Agrawal and R. Jia, Posterior sampling for reinforcement learning: worst-case regret bounds, arXiv:1705.07041v3, 2020; published as Optimistic Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning: Worst-Case Regret Bounds, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07041
  • T. Jaksch, R. Ortner and P. Auer, Near-optimal regret bounds for reinforcement learning, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11, 2010. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v11/jaksch10a.html
  • Y. Seldin, F. Laviolette, N. Cesa-Bianchi, J. Shawe-Taylor and P. Auer, PAC-Bayesian inequalities for martingales, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 58(12), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2012.2211334
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