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Operations Research

2,686 missions · 1,438 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance Constraints 1: Under Normality, the E-Model Chance Constraints Are Equivalent to the Convex Program (29)Research Paper

Motivation

Chance-constrained programming replaces a linear program max⁡c′x\max c'xmaxc′x subject to Ax≤bAx\le bAx≤b by a problem in which some data are random and each constraint only has to hold with a prescribed probability. Charnes and Cooper introduced the idea in 1959 for scheduling heating-oil production against weather-dependent demand, and the formulation is now a standard modelling tool in operations research, finance, energy systems and engineering design (Charnes and Cooper 1959; Prékopa 1995).

A chance-constrained problem is not directly solvable: its constraints are probabilities of events that depend on the decision. The 1963 paper of Charnes and Cooper (doi:10.1287/opre.11.1.18) asks when such a problem has a deterministic equivalent, an ordinary mathematical program with the same feasible decisions and corresponding objective values, and when that equivalent is a convex program. Its first answer, for the expected-value ('E') model under linear decision rules and normality, is the subject of this mission. The resulting constraint form, a mean slack dominating KαK_\alphaKα​ standard deviations, is an early instance of the second-order-cone reformulation of individual normal chance constraints used throughout modern stochastic and robust optimization.

Timeline. 1959: Charnes and Cooper, chance-constrained programming with the heating-oil model. 1963: this paper, deterministic equivalents for the E, V and P models under linear decision rules x=Dbx=Dbx=Db. 1965: Miller and Wagner treat joint chance constraints with independent rows (doi:10.1287/opre.13.6.930). 1971: Prékopa's logarithmically concave measures give convexity of joint chance constraints under log-concave laws.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space. The data are a constant m×nm\times nm×n matrix AAA with rows a1′,…,am′a_1',\dots,a_m'a1′​,…,am′​, a random right-hand side b:Ω→Rmb:\Omega\to\mathbb R^mb:Ω→Rm and random objective coefficients c:Ω→Rnc:\Omega\to\mathbb R^nc:Ω→Rn. A linear decision rule is an n×mn\times mn×m real matrix DDD; it chooses x=Dbx=Dbx=Db after bbb is observed. Write μb=Eb\mu_b=Ebμb​=Eb, μc=Ec\mu_c=Ecμc​=Ec and b^=b−μb\hat b=b-\mu_bb^=b−μb​.

The E-model (18) is

max⁡ E(c′Db)subject toP(ai′Db≤bi)≥αi(i=1,…,m),\max\ E(c'Db)\quad\text{subject to}\quad P(a_i'Db\le b_i)\ge\alpha_i\qquad(i=1,\dots,m),max E(c′Db)subject toP(ai′​Db≤bi​)≥αi​(i=1,…,m),

with one probability level αi\alpha_iαi​ per row: the constraints are row-wise, as in (3) of the paper, not a single joint constraint.

For 12<α<1\tfrac12<\alpha<121​<α<1 let Kα=Φ−1(α)>0K_\alpha=\Phi^{-1}(\alpha)>0Kα​=Φ−1(α)>0 be the standard normal α\alphaα-quantile. With the moment functions (30),

σi2(D)=E(ai′Db−bi)2,μi(D)=μbi−ai′Dμb,\sigma_i^2(D)=E(a_i'Db-b_i)^2,\qquad \mu_i(D)=\mu_{b_i}-a_i'D\mu_b,σi2​(D)=E(ai′​Db−bi​)2,μi​(D)=μbi​​−ai′​Dμb​,

the paper's deterministic program (29) in the variables (D,v)(D,v)(D,v), v∈Rmv\in\mathbb R^mv∈Rm, is

min⁡ −μc′Dμbs.t.μi(D)−vi≥0,−Kαi2σi2(D)+Kαi2μi2(D)+vi2≥0,vi≥0.\min\ -\mu_c'D\mu_b\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \mu_i(D)-v_i\ge0,\quad -K_{\alpha_i}^2\sigma_i^2(D)+K_{\alpha_i}^2\mu_i^2(D)+v_i^2\ge0,\quad v_i\ge0 .min −μc′​Dμb​s.t.μi​(D)−vi​≥0,−Kαi​2​σi2​(D)+Kαi​2​μi2​(D)+vi2​≥0,vi​≥0.

Formalization targets

Goal: (18) is equivalent to the convex program (29)

Assume every bkb_kbk​ is square integrable, every cjc_jcj​ and cjbkc_jb_kcj​bk​ integrable, bbb and ccc uncorrelated (E(cjbk)=Ecj EbkE(c_jb_k)=E c_j\,E b_kE(cj​bk​)=Ecj​Ebk​), every variate ai′Db−bia_i'Db-b_iai′​Db−bi​ normal (for every DDD and iii, zero variance allowed), and 12<αi<1\tfrac12<\alpha_i<121​<αi​<1. Then

(∀D: D feasible for (18)  ⟺  ∃v, (D,v) feasible for (29)) ∧ (∀D: E(c′Db)=μc′Dμb) ∧ {(D,v) feasible for (29)} is convex.\Big(\forall D:\ D\text{ feasible for (18)}\iff\exists v,\ (D,v)\text{ feasible for (29)}\Big)\ \wedge\ \Big(\forall D:\ E(c'Db)=\mu_c'D\mu_b\Big)\ \wedge\ \{(D,v)\ \text{feasible for (29)}\}\ \text{is convex}.(∀D: D feasible for (18)⟺∃v, (D,v) feasible for (29)) ∧ (∀D: E(c′Db)=μc′​Dμb​) ∧ {(D,v) feasible for (29)} is convex.

Milestones, in the order of the paper

  1. (19a): E(c′Db)=(Ec)′D(Eb)E(c'Db)=(Ec)'D(Eb)E(c′Db)=(Ec)′D(Eb) for uncorrelated bbb, ccc.
  2. (22)–(27): with positive variance, P(ai′Db≤bi)≥αi  ⟺  (−μbi+ai′Dμb)/E[b^i−ai′Db^]2≤−KαiP(a_i'Db\le b_i)\ge\alpha_i\iff(-\mu_{b_i}+a_i'D\mu_b)/\sqrt{E[\hat b_i-a_i'D\hat b]^2}\le-K_{\alpha_i}P(ai′​Db≤bi​)≥αi​⟺(−μbi​​+ai′​Dμb​)/E[b^i​−ai′​Db^]2​≤−Kαi​​.
  3. (28a)–(28b): (27) holds iff some viv_ivi​ satisfies μbi−ai′Dμb≥vi≥KαiE[b^i−ai′Db^]2≥0\mu_{b_i}-a_i'D\mu_b\ge v_i\ge K_{\alpha_i}\sqrt{E[\hat b_i-a_i'D\hat b]^2}\ge0μbi​​−ai′​Dμb​≥vi​≥Kαi​​E[b^i​−ai′​Db^]2​≥0.
  4. (28c)–(28d): for vi≥0v_i\ge0vi​≥0, that pair is equivalent to its squared form.
  5. Footnote ‡ to (30): σi2(D)−μi2(D)=E[b^i−ai′Db^]2\sigma_i^2(D)-\mu_i^2(D)=E[\hat b_i-a_i'D\hat b]^2σi2​(D)−μi2​(D)=E[b^i​−ai′​Db^]2.
  6. The convexity paragraph after (30): the feasible set of (29) is convex in (D,v)(D,v)(D,v).
  7. 'V Model' (32)–(34): under the same normal chance assumptions and square integrability of each cjbkc_jb_kcj​bk​, the chance constraints of (32) are equivalent to (33) for some vvv; the pair feasible set and V(D)=E(c′Db−z0)2V(D)=E(c'Db-z^0)^2V(D)=E(c′Db−z0)2 are convex.

Significance

The result. The theorem turns a problem whose constraints are probabilities into a finite-dimensional convex program whose data are the first two moments of bbb and the means of ccc. The optimal rules of (18) minimize (29), whose optimal value is the negative of the maximum in (18). The slack variables viv_ivi​ separate each constraint into a "quality" part (the mean slack μi(D)\mu_i(D)μi​(D)) and a "risk" part (KαiK_{\alpha_i}Kαi​​ standard deviations), which is the interpretation the paper develops in (31) and its Appendix. The same constraint set serves the V-model (33), so only the objective changes between the two models.

Formalizing it. The result is classical and its proof is elementary, but the paper's argument is informal in ways that matter for a machine-checked version: it divides by a standard deviation it then allows to vanish, writes FiF_iFi​ for what must be an upper-tail function, and labels a variance as σi2(D)\sigma_i^2(D)σi2​(D) while defining σi2(D)\sigma_i^2(D)σi2​(D) as a raw second moment. This mission produces a statement in which each of these points is settled, with every hypothesis explicit. No machine-checked version of the result is known to exist.

Difficulty

The chance-constraint step itself is a one-dimensional fact about the normal law, but three points need care. The variance of ai′Db−bia_i'Db-b_iai′​Db−bi​ may be zero for some DDD and iii; then the law is a point mass, the quotient in (27) is undefined, and the equivalence must be argued separately, as footnote † of p. 28 indicates. The quadratic constraint of (29) alone, vi2≥Kαi2(σi2(D)−μi2(D))v_i^2\ge K_{\alpha_i}^2(\sigma_i^2(D)-\mu_i^2(D))vi2​≥Kαi​2​(σi2​(D)−μi2​(D)), describes both nappes of a hyperboloid and is not convex; convexity needs vi≥0v_i\ge0vi​≥0 and the positive semidefiniteness of D↦Var⁡(ai′Db−bi)D\mapsto\operatorname{Var}(a_i'Db-b_i)D↦Var(ai′​Db−bi​), which comes from square integrability of bbb and not from normality. Finally, the identity relating σi2\sigma_i^2σi2​, μi2\mu_i^2μi2​ and the variance requires the integrals to be genuine, so the integrability hypotheses cannot be dropped.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the namespace ChanceDetEquiv.EModel. The probability space is (Ω, P) with [IsProbabilityMeasure P]; A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, b : Ω → Fin m → ℝ, c : Ω → Fin n → ℝ, D : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ; ai′Dba_i'Dbai′​Db is (A *ᵥ (D *ᵥ b ω)) i. Expectations are Bochner integrals and probabilities are P.real. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "deterministic equivalent for (18)" is the conjunction of an iff between feasible sets (with the auxiliary vvv existentially quantified) and E(c′Db)=μc′DμbE(c'Db)=\mu_c'D\mu_bE(c′Db)=μc′​Dμb​ for every DDD; (29) minimizes the negative of this mean;
  • "is a convex programming problem" is Convex ℝ of the feasible set of (29) in (D,v)(D,v)(D,v), vi≥0v_i\ge0vi​≥0 included; for the V model it also asserts ConvexOn ℝ of VVV;
  • "normally distributed" is: for every DDD and iii, the law of ai′Db−bia_i'Db-b_iai′​Db−bi​ is gaussianReal μ s for some μ\muμ and s≥0s\ge0s≥0; joint normality of bbb is not assumed, since it would be a stronger hypothesis;
  • "bbb and ccc are uncorrelated" is E(cjbk)=Ecj EbkE(c_jb_k)=E c_j\,E b_kE(cj​bk​)=Ecj​Ebk​ for all j,kj,kj,k;
  • Kα=Φ−1(α)K_\alpha=\Phi^{-1}(\alpha)Kα​=Φ−1(α), using the published definition Cohen2019_Robust_Phi; FiF_iFi​ in (26)–(27) is read as the upper-tail function of ziz_izi​, and αi<1\alpha_i<1αi​<1 is added so that KαiK_{\alpha_i}Kαi​​ is finite;
  • σi2(D)\sigma_i^2(D)σi2​(D) is the raw second moment exactly as printed in (30).

Positive variance is a hypothesis of milestones 2 and 3, where (27) has a denominator. The goal and later milestones admit zero variance. The statements admit no trivializing reading: the normality hypothesis is satisfied by constant and by Gaussian bbb, the integrability hypotheses rule out the junk value 000 of non-integrable expectations, and αi<1\alpha_i<1αi​<1 rules out the junk value of Φ−1(1)\Phi^{-1}(1)Φ−1(1).

A complete development needs: the normal CDF and quantile, the law of an affine image of a random variable, variance as EX2−(EX)2E X^2-(EX)^2EX2−(EX)2 in L2L^2L2, and convexity of the epigraph of a seminorm composed with an affine map. The convexity milestones need no probability beyond L2L^2L2 and are reusable for any second-order-cone representation of individual chance constraints. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.

The related open platform item KallMayer.Chance.chapter2_theorem2_5 (convexity of a single normal chance-feasible set in xxx) is credited here and not restated: no item of this mission states the convexity of the set of DDD feasible for (18). Related published items that are about other models: DRCVRP.RCI.prob_le_iff_valueAtRisk_le (chance constraints and value-at-risk for a general law) and the log-concavity results of NumStochOpt.LogConcave.

Selected references

  • A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper, Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance Constraints, Operations Research 11(1), 1963, 18–39. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.1.18
  • A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper, Chance-Constrained Programming, Management Science 6(1), 1959, 73–79. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.1.73
  • A. Prékopa, Stochastic Programming, Kluwer, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3087-7
  • P. Kall and J. Mayer, Stochastic Linear Programming, 2nd ed., Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7729-8
10 thms1 active userReviewed
CombinatoricsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimization and Approximation in Deterministic Sequencing and Scheduling: A Survey 2: The Optimal Preemptive Open Shop Makespan Equals the Largest Machine Load or Job LengthResearch Paper

Motivation

Open shops model production and service systems in which every job must visit every machine, but the order of the visits is free: a car that needs an inspection, a wash and a tyre change, a patient who needs several tests, a student who sits several exams. The survey of Graham, Lawler, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan (Ann. Discrete Math. 5, 1979) fixed the three-field notation α∣β∣γ\alpha|\beta|\gammaα∣β∣γ that the scheduling literature still uses, and classified the complexity of the problems it can express. Among the polynomially solvable cases, the preemptive open shop with makespan objective, O∣pmtn∣Cmax⁡O|pmtn|C_{\max}O∣pmtn∣Cmax​, is one of the few multi-machine problems whose optimal value has a closed form for any number of machines and jobs.

Timeline.

  • 1976: Gonzalez and Sahni (J. ACM 23) prove that the optimal preemptive open-shop makespan is the largest machine load or job length, and give a polynomial algorithm. In the same paper they solve O2∥Cmax⁡O2\|C_{\max}O2∥Cmax​ in linear time and show O3∥Cmax⁡O3\|C_{\max}O3∥Cmax​ NP-hard.
  • 1978: Lawler and Labetoulle (J. ACM 25) give a linear-programming treatment of preemptive scheduling on unrelated machines and reformulate the open-shop construction in terms of decrementing sets, found by an assignment problem through the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem.
  • 1979: the survey (§5.2.2, p. 313) presents this construction as the standard argument and records the O(r+min⁡{m4,n4,r2})O(r+\min\{m^4,n^4,r^2\})O(r+min{m4,n4,r2}) bound of Gonzalez (1976), where rrr is the number of nonzero processing times.

Setting

There are mmm machines M1,…,MmM_1,\dots,M_mM1​,…,Mm​ and nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​. Job JjJ_jJj​ consists of operations O1j,…,OmjO_{1j},\dots,O_{mj}O1j​,…,Omj​; operation OijO_{ij}Oij​ must be processed on machine MiM_iMi​ for pij≥0p_{ij}\ge 0pij​≥0 time units. The processing-time matrix is P=(pij)P=(p_{ij})P=(pij​): its rows are machines and its columns are jobs. Every job is available at time 000.

Preemption is allowed: an operation may be interrupted and resumed later. A schedule is a finite list of pieces (i,j,s,e)(i,j,s,e)(i,j,s,e), each meaning that MiM_iMi​ processes JjJ_jJj​ during [s,e)[s,e)[s,e). A schedule is feasible if

  1. every piece satisfies 0≤s≤e0\le s\le e0≤s≤e;
  2. each machine processes at most one job at a time, and each job is processed on at most one machine at a time: two pieces that share a machine or a job do not overlap;
  3. for every pair (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) the pieces of OijO_{ij}Oij​ have total length exactly pijp_{ij}pij​.

The makespan Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ is the time at which the last piece ends, and Cmax⁡∗C^*_{\max}Cmax∗​ is its minimum over feasible schedules. The load of machine MiM_iMi​ is the row sum ∑jpij\sum_j p_{ij}∑j​pij​, the length of job JjJ_jJj​ is the column sum ∑ipij\sum_i p_{ij}∑i​pij​, and

C=max⁡{max⁡j∑ipij, max⁡i∑jpij}.C=\max\Big\{\max_j \sum_i p_{ij},\ \max_i \sum_j p_{ij}\Big\}.C=max{jmax​i∑​pij​, imax​j∑​pij​}.

A row or column is tight if its sum equals CCC and slack otherwise. A decrementing set is a set SSS of strictly positive entries of PPP with exactly one element in each tight row and each tight column and at most one in each slack row and each slack column.

Formalization targets

Goal: Cmax⁡∗=CC^*_{\max}=CCmax∗​=C

For every T≥0T\ge 0T≥0,

(∃ feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤T)  ⟺  (∑jpij≤T ∀i  and  ∑ipij≤T ∀j).\big(\exists \text{ feasible schedule with } C_{\max}\le T\big)\iff \Big(\sum_j p_{ij}\le T\ \forall i\ \text{ and }\ \sum_i p_{ij}\le T\ \forall j\Big).(∃ feasible schedule with Cmax​≤T)⟺(j∑​pij​≤T ∀i  and  i∑​pij​≤T ∀j).

This says that the optimal makespan is exactly the largest machine load or job length, and that it is attained.

Milestones (all from §5.2.2, p. 313)

  1. Lower bound Cmax⁡∗≥CC^*_{\max}\ge CCmax∗​≥C.
  2. Existence of a decrementing set for every nonzero nonnegative PPP.
  3. Positive step: for a decrementing set, the largest δ\deltaδ satisfying the constraints (1)–(3) of the survey exists and is positive.
  4. Step property: after replacing each pij∈Sp_{ij}\in Spij​∈S by max⁡{0,pij−δ}\max\{0,p_{ij}-\delta\}max{0,pij​−δ}, the largest line sum is exactly C−δC-\deltaC−δ.
  5. Partial schedule: for each pij∈Sp_{ij}\in Spij​∈S, MiM_iMi​ processes JjJ_jJj​ for min⁡{pij,δ}\min\{p_{ij},\delta\}min{pij​,δ} time units, with no machine or job used twice.
  6. Termination: every run of the procedure reaches P′=(0)P'=(0)P′=(0) within a bounded number of stages.
  7. Joining: the concatenated partial schedules form a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤CC_{\max}\le CCmax​≤C.

Significance

The result. The theorem turns an optimization over continuous-time schedules into the computation of m+nm+nm+n sums. It certifies optimality by a counting argument, it is the base case for preemptive open shops with release dates and due dates, and it is used elsewhere in the survey (§4.4.6) to reduce problems on unrelated machines with preemption to open-shop instances. Because a nonnegative matrix whose row and column sums are all equal is a multiple of a doubly stochastic matrix, the theorem is a scheduling form of the Birkhoff–von Neumann decomposition. It also underlies timetabling and edge-colouring results for bipartite multigraphs.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 1976 and is textbook material. No machine-checked proof is known to exist: Mathlib has the Birkhoff–von Neumann theorem for doubly stochastic matrices but no model of open-shop schedules. A formalization adds a reusable model of preemptive multi-machine schedules with both disjointness requirements, a checked proof of the decrementing-set construction, and a termination argument the survey asserts without proof.

Difficulty

The lower bound is a one-line counting argument. The difficulty is the construction of a schedule of length exactly CCC. Scheduling each machine's operations back to back gives length max⁡i∑jpij\max_i\sum_j p_{ij}maxi​∑j​pij​, but may run one job on two machines at once. Scheduling job by job has the symmetric defect. A greedy list schedule that only respects both constraints can leave machines idle and overshoot CCC. The construction must keep every tight line busy at every moment while never letting a slack line fall behind. The existence of the decrementing set at each stage is the combinatorial core: it is a Hall-type matching condition, not a local choice. Termination is also not automatic, because a careless choice of step length can produce infinitely many shrinking steps.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace SchedSurvey.OPmtn. Machines and jobs are Fin m and Fin n, both 0-based, and processing times and piece endpoints are real numbers; integer data are a special case. A schedule is a List of pieces. Feasibility requires nonnegative start times, disjointness for pieces sharing a machine or a job (touching intervals allowed), and exactly pijp_{ij}pij​ units of processing for every pair (i,j)(i,j)(i,j). Every theorem assumes pij≥0p_{ij}\ge 0pij​≥0.

"CCC is the maximum" is the predicate IsMaxLoad P C: all line sums are at most CCC and one equals CCC. The goal is stated in threshold form and mentions no maximum at all. The display defining CCC on p. 313 prints max⁡i{∑ipij}\max_i\{\sum_i p_{ij}\}maxi​{∑i​pij​} for the second term; the following sentence shows it means the row sums ∑jpij\sum_j p_{ij}∑j​pij​, and the formalization uses those. The hypothesis T≥0T\ge 0T≥0 matters only for P=0P=0P=0, where the empty schedule finishes by every TTT.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal mentions neither decrementing sets nor δ\deltaδ. Its "if" direction asserts that a schedule exists. Feasibility counts work per pair (machine, job), not per job, and forbids a job from running on two machines at once. Without either requirement the statement would be a different and easier theorem.

A complete development needs: list sums of interval lengths over disjoint intervals, the existence of decrementing sets (via Birkhoff–von Neumann, König's theorem or Hall's theorem on the bipartite graph of positive entries), the step and termination lemmas, and concatenation of schedules. The schedule model and the decrementing-set lemma are reusable for other preemptive shop problems. Contributions of alternative proofs of any milestone, for example a direct Hall-theorem proof of the existence of decrementing sets, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. L. Graham, E. L. Lawler, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Optimization and approximation in deterministic sequencing and scheduling: a survey, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 5 (1979) 287–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70356-X
  • T. Gonzalez, S. Sahni, Open shop scheduling to minimize finish time, Journal of the ACM 23 (1976) 665–679. https://doi.org/10.1145/321978.321985
  • E. L. Lawler, J. Labetoulle, On preemptive scheduling of unrelated parallel processors by linear programming, Journal of the ACM 25 (1978) 612–619. https://doi.org/10.1145/322077.322090
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Linear OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management 2: Frequent Re-solving Loses at Most O(√T) Against the Deterministic LP, Uniformly in the CapacitiesResearch Paper

Motivation

Network revenue management is the problem of selling several limited, perishable resources (seats on flight legs, hotel room-nights, machine hours) to customers who arrive over time and each want a fixed bundle of them. A seller who accepts every request early may run out of the resources that the most valuable later customers need, and a seller who is too cautious leaves capacity unsold at the end of the horizon. Airlines, hotels and car-rental firms solve instances of this problem daily (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004).

The exact optimal policy is a dynamic program over the vector of remaining capacities, which is intractable for realistic networks. The standard remedy replaces the random demand by its mean, which gives a linear program, the deterministic LP (DLP), and turns its solution into an admission rule. Its value is an upper bound on what any policy can earn (Gallego and van Ryzin, 1997). Solving the LP once, at time zero, loses O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against that bound over a horizon of length TTT. A natural improvement is to re-solve the LP as capacity is consumed.

Timeline of the re-solving question, as the source surveys it (Sec. 1, pp. 3–4):

  • 1997: Gallego and van Ryzin: static policies built from the DLP lose Θ(T)\Theta(\sqrt{T})Θ(T​).
  • 2002: Cooper gives an example in which re-solving the DLP makes booking-limit control worse.
  • 2008: Reiman and Wang re-solve exactly once, at an endogenous random time, with probabilistic allocation, and obtain o(T)o(\sqrt{T})o(T​) loss.
  • 2012: Jasin and Kumar prove that re-solving after every unit of time with probabilistic allocation (the policy FR below) loses O(1)O(1)O(1), provided the DLP solution is nondegenerate. Wu et al. (2015) obtain O(1)O(1)O(1) for one resource, with a constant that blows up as the solution approaches degeneracy.
  • 2018: Bumpensanti and Wang (arXiv:1802.06192) show that FR can lose Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt{T})Ω(T​) against the hindsight optimum on a degenerate instance, propose a modified policy with O(1)O(1)O(1) loss in all cases, and prove that FR never loses more than O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against the DLP. This mission formalizes the last of these results.

Setting

There are nnn customer classes j∈[n]j \in [n]j∈[n] and mmm resources l∈[m]l \in [m]l∈[m]. Over the horizon [0,T][0, T][0,T], class-jjj customers arrive according to independent Poisson processes with rates λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0. Accepting a class-jjj customer earns rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0 and consumes alj≥0a_{lj} \ge 0alj​≥0 units of each resource lll; A=(alj)A = (a_{lj})A=(alj​) is the bill-of-materials matrix and AjA_jAj​ its jjj-th column. The initial capacity vector is C≥0C \ge 0C≥0. A customer can be accepted only if Aj≤C′A_j \le C'Aj​≤C′ componentwise, where C′C'C′ is the capacity remaining at its arrival.

For a capacity-per-unit-time vector b≥0b \ge 0b≥0, let

v(b)=max⁡{∑j=1nrjxj : ∑j=1nAjxj≤b, 0≤xj≤λj}.v(b) = \max\Big\{ \sum_{j=1}^n r_j x_j \ :\ \sum_{j=1}^n A_j x_j \le b,\ 0 \le x_j \le \lambda_j \Big\}.v(b)=max{j=1∑n​rj​xj​ : j=1∑n​Aj​xj​≤b, 0≤xj​≤λj​}.

The DLP value is vDLP(T,C)=T v(C/T)v^{\mathrm{DLP}}(T, C) = T\, v(C/T)vDLP(T,C)=Tv(C/T).

The Frequent Re-solving policy (FR) divides the horizon into TTT unit periods [t,t+1)[t, t+1)[t,t+1). At the start of period ttt, with remaining capacity C(t)C(t)C(t), it sets b(t)=C(t)/(T−t)b(t) = C(t)/(T - t)b(t)=C(t)/(T−t), computes an optimal solution x(t)x(t)x(t) of the LP with right-hand side b(t)b(t)b(t), and during the period accepts each class-jjj arrival with probability xj(t)/λjx_j(t)/\lambda_jxj​(t)/λj​, subject to the capacity check. Its expected revenue is vFR(T,C)v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T, C)vFR(T,C). The LP may have several optimal solutions; the results hold for every rule choosing among them.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There is a constant MMM, depending only on λ\lambdaλ, rrr and AAA, such that for every integer T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, every capacity C≥0C \ge 0C≥0 and every choice of optimal LP solutions,

vDLP(T,C)−vFR(T,C)≤MT.v^{\mathrm{DLP}}(T, C) - v^{\mathrm{FR}}(T, C) \le M \sqrt{T}.vDLP(T,C)−vFR(T,C)≤MT​.

The content is the uniformity: MMM does not depend on CCC, so the bound holds whether capacity is scarce, abundant, or degenerate for the LP.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Eq. (32), p. 35. The capacity check costs FR at most ∑jrj(log⁡T+1)+∑jrjλj\sum_j r_j(\log T + 1) + \sum_j r_j \lambda_j∑j​rj​(logT+1)+∑j​rj​λj​ relative to the LP revenue it targets:
vFR≥E[∑t=0T−1∑j=1nrjxj(t)]−∑j=1nrj(log⁡T+1)−∑j=1nrjλj.v^{\mathrm{FR}} \ge \mathbb{E}\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{T-1} \sum_{j=1}^n r_j x_j(t)\Big] - \sum_{j=1}^n r_j (\log T + 1) - \sum_{j=1}^n r_j \lambda_j .vFR≥E[t=0∑T−1​j=1∑n​rj​xj​(t)]−j=1∑n​rj​(logT+1)−j=1∑n​rj​λj​.
  1. Eq. (33), p. 35. LP sensitivity in the right-hand side: v(b)−v(b′)≤∑lrmax⁡l(bl−bl′)+v(b) - v(b') \le \sum_l r^l_{\max} (b_l - b'_l)^+v(b)−v(b′)≤∑l​rmaxl​(bl​−bl′​)+ with rmax⁡l=max⁡jrjI(alj>0)/aljr^l_{\max} = \max_j r_j \mathbb{I}(a_{lj} > 0)/a_{lj}rmaxl​=maxj​rj​I(alj​>0)/alj​.
  2. Lemma 8, p. 43 (corrected). E[(bl−bl(t))+]≤Kl∑i=0t−1(T−i−1)−2\mathbb{E}[(b_l - b_l(t))^+] \le K_l \sqrt{\sum_{i=0}^{t-1} (T-i-1)^{-2}}E[(bl​−bl​(t))+]≤Kl​∑i=0t−1​(T−i−1)−2​ with Kl=∑jalj2λjK_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj​​.
  3. p. 36. ∑t=0T−1∑i=0t−1(T−i−1)−2≤2T+2\sum_{t=0}^{T-1} \sqrt{\sum_{i=0}^{t-1} (T-i-1)^{-2}} \le 2\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{2}∑t=0T−1​∑i=0t−1​(T−i−1)−2​≤2T​+2​.
  4. p. 36, explicit bound.
vDLP−vFR≤∑l=1mrmax⁡lKl(2T+2)+n rmax⁡(log⁡T+1)+n rmax⁡λmax⁡.v^{\mathrm{DLP}} - v^{\mathrm{FR}} \le \sum_{l=1}^m r^l_{\max} K_l (2\sqrt{T} + \sqrt{2}) + n\, r_{\max} (\log T + 1) + n\, r_{\max} \lambda_{\max} .vDLP−vFR≤l=1∑m​rmaxl​Kl​(2T​+2​)+nrmax​(logT+1)+nrmax​λmax​.

Significance

The result. Because vDLPv^{\mathrm{DLP}}vDLP bounds the expected revenue of every admissible policy, Proposition 3 says that FR loses at most O(T)O(\sqrt{T})O(T​) against the optimal policy in every instance, degenerate or not. Re-solving therefore never does worse, in order, than solving once. Together with the Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt{T})Ω(T​) lower bound on a degenerate instance (Proposition 2 of the same paper), it shows that the order T\sqrt{T}T​ is exact for FR. The nondegeneracy assumption of the earlier O(1)O(1)O(1) analysis cannot be dropped. The explicit form (milestone 5) bounds the loss by constants computable from (λ,r,A)(\lambda, r, A)(λ,r,A).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the source; no part of it is machine-checked. A formalization adds three things. It gives a precise model of an adaptive, randomized admission policy in a Poisson network, which other results on re-solving and bid-price policies can reuse. It gives a checked LP sensitivity bound. And it checks the paper's constants: the printed constant of Lemma 8 is wrong (see Formalization scope), and the mission states the corrected one.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares FR with the DLP period by period: the LP that FR solves at time ttt differs from the original only in its right-hand side, so the loss should be controlled by how far b(t)b(t)b(t) drifts below b=C/Tb = C/Tb=C/T. Two things break a naive version of this. First, b(t)b(t)b(t) is a ratio whose denominator T−tT - tT−t shrinks to 111, so fluctuations late in the horizon are amplified; a crude bound on the drift at each ttt sums to more than T\sqrt{T}T​. Second, FR's realized consumption is not the LP's target: the capacity check rejects customers, and the LP solutions x(i)x(i)x(i) depend on the whole past, so the consumption in different periods is not independent.

Uniformity in CCC is the whole point. Arguments that rely on a margin between C/TC/TC/T and the degenerate points of the LP, as in the nondegenerate analysis, give constants that blow up as that margin vanishes.

Formalization scope

The source is arXiv:1802.06192v3, whose printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers. Everything lives in the namespace ResolvingNRM.FRUpper.

  • LP value. v(b)v(b)v(b) is the published piValue A r b lam of RLPBidPrice.Unbiased.Model (a real supremum, equal to the LP maximum for b≥0b \ge 0b≥0).
  • Optimal solutions. The "arg⁡max⁡\arg\maxargmax" of Algorithm 2 is an arbitrary optimal-solution selector sel; every theorem quantifies over all selectors, with constants chosen before the selector.
  • Randomness. Within a period the acceptance probabilities are fixed, so the period's arrivals are represented exactly as a Poisson number of customers in arrival order, with i.i.d. classes of law λj/∑iλi\lambda_j / \sum_i \lambda_iλj​/∑i​λi​ and independent Bernoulli acceptance coins. Expectations are series over this law (windowExp). FR's value is a backward recursion over periods (frTail), and expectations of functions of C(t)C(t)C(t) are a forward recursion (frStateExp).
  • Horizon. TTT is a positive integer; capacities are real vectors.
  • Standing assumptions of p. 7, left implicit there and hypotheses here: λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0, rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0, alj≥0a_{lj} \ge 0alj​≥0, C≥0C \ge 0C≥0.
  • O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). "=O(T)= O(\sqrt{T})=O(T​)" is ∃M, ∀ sel,T≥1,C≥0\exists M,\ \forall\, \mathrm{sel}, T \ge 1, C \ge 0∃M, ∀sel,T≥1,C≥0. The paper's threshold T1T_1T1​ is dropped, which is equivalent because 0≤vFR0 \le v^{\mathrm{FR}}0≤vFR and vDLP≤T∑jrjλjv^{\mathrm{DLP}} \le T\sum_j r_j\lambda_jvDLP≤T∑j​rj​λj​.
  • Corrected slip, Lemma 8. The printed Kl=∑jalj2λj2K_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j^2}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj2​​ is false: the proof replaces the conditional variance xj(i)≤λjx_j(i) \le \lambda_jxj​(i)≤λj​ of a Poisson increment by λj2\lambda_j^2λj2​. With one class, one resource, a=1a = 1a=1, λ=0.01\lambda = 0.01λ=0.01, C=λTC = \lambda TC=λT, T=1000T = 1000T=1000 and t=2t = 2t=2, an exact computation gives E[(b−b(2))+]≈1.96⋅10−5\mathbb{E}[(b - b(2))^+] \approx 1.96 \cdot 10^{-5}E[(b−b(2))+]≈1.96⋅10−5, above the printed bound 1.42⋅10−51.42 \cdot 10^{-5}1.42⋅10−5. The mission uses Kl=∑jalj2λjK_l = \sqrt{\sum_j a_{lj}^2 \lambda_j}Kl​=∑j​alj2​λj​​ in Lemma 8 and in the explicit bound.
  • Index slip. The paper's sums ∑l=1L\sum_{l=1}^L∑l=1L​ run over its mmm resources and are read as l∈[m]l \in [m]l∈[m].

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. The constant MMM is chosen before CCC. FR is defined with every optimal LP solution, not only nondegenerate or vertex ones. The capacity check is kept arrival by arrival; without it, FR's expected revenue would equal the LP revenue it targets and the gap would be trivially small.

Contributions welcome on every milestone. The LP sensitivity bound (33) is a statement about linear programs alone and milestone 4 about real numbers alone; both are reusable outside this mission, as is the window model of a randomized admission policy.

Selected references

  • Y. Bumpensanti, H. Wang, A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management, arXiv:1802.06192v3, 2018 (the source of this mission; later in Management Science 66(7), 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.06192
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1), 24–41, 1997.
  • W. L. Cooper, Asymptotic Behavior of an Allocation Policy for Revenue Management, Operations Research 50(4), 720–727, 2002.
  • M. I. Reiman, Q. Wang, An Asymptotically Optimal Policy for a Quantity-Based Network Revenue Management Problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 33(2), 257–282, 2008.
  • S. Jasin, S. Kumar, A Re-Solving Heuristic with Bounded Revenue Loss for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice, Mathematics of Operations Research 37(2), 313–345, 2012.
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004.

Bibliographic details of the non-arXiv entries are those of the source's reference list (pp. 24–25).

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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Cooperative Fuzzy Games 1: A Balanced Game without Side Payments Has a Nonempty Core Containing the Core of Its Fuzzy ExtensionResearch Paper

Motivation

A game without side payments (an NTU game) describes cooperation in which utility cannot be transferred between players: each coalition AAA of players is assigned the set V(A)V(A)V(A) of payoff vectors it can secure on its own. The core is the set of payoffs to the grand coalition that no coalition can improve upon. Whether the core is nonempty is the basic stability question of cooperative game theory. For games with side payments the answer is the Bondareva–Shapley theorem. For NTU games it is Scarf's theorem (Scarf 1967): a balanced game has a nonempty core. Billera (1970) gave a convex version, in which the payoff sets are convex and balancedness is stated with weighted Minkowski sums.

Aubin's paper (Aubin 1981) obtains Billera's version of the theorem by a different route. Players may join coalitions at fractional rates of participation, and the paper first proves a core existence theorem for these fuzzy games. The game on ordinary coalitions is then embedded into a fuzzy game whose core lies inside the core of the original game.

Setting

The players are N={1,…,n}N = \{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. A coalition A⊆NA \subseteq NA⊆N is identified with its characteristic vector τA∈{0,1}n\tau^A \in \{0,1\}^nτA∈{0,1}n, and τN=(1,…,1)\tau^N = (1,\dots,1)τN=(1,…,1). A fuzzy coalition is a vector τ∈[0,1]n\tau \in [0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n of participation rates with support Aτ={i:τi>0}A_\tau = \{i : \tau_i > 0\}Aτ​={i:τi​>0}. Write (τ⋅c)i=τici(\tau\cdot c)_i = \tau_i c_i(τ⋅c)i​=τi​ci​, Rτ=τ⋅Rn\mathbb{R}^\tau = \tau\cdot\mathbb{R}^nRτ=τ⋅Rn for the vectors vanishing off AτA_\tauAτ​, R+τ\mathbb{R}^\tau_+R+τ​ for its nonnegative part, and R˚+τ\mathring{\mathbb{R}}^\tau_+R˚+τ​ for the vectors strictly positive on AτA_\tauAτ​.

A fuzzy game without side payments assigns to each τ≥0\tau \ge 0τ≥0 a nonempty, closed, convex set V(τ)⊆RτV(\tau)\subseteq\mathbb{R}^\tauV(τ)⊆Rτ. Each V(τ)V(\tau)V(τ) is comprehensive, meaning V(τ)=V(τ)−R+τV(\tau) = V(\tau)-\mathbb{R}^\tau_+V(τ)=V(τ)−R+τ​, and bounded above, meaning V(τ)⊆C−R+τV(\tau)\subseteq C-\mathbb{R}^\tau_+V(τ)⊆C−R+τ​ for some CCC. The map is positively homogeneous: V(tτ)=tV(τ)V(t\tau) = tV(\tau)V(tτ)=tV(τ) for every t>0t>0t>0. Its core is the set of c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) such that τ⋅c∉V(τ)−R˚+τ\tau\cdot c\notin V(\tau)-\mathring{\mathbb{R}}^\tau_+τ⋅c∈/V(τ)−R˚+τ​ for every fuzzy coalition τ≠0\tau\neq 0τ=0. With the support function v(τ,λ)=sup⁡c∈V(τ)∑iλiciv(\tau,\lambda)=\sup_{c\in V(\tau)}\sum_i\lambda_i c_iv(τ,λ)=supc∈V(τ)​∑i​λi​ci​ and the simplex MnM^nMn, a weak (resp. strong) canonical cooperative equilibrium is a c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) together with a λˉ∈Mn\bar\lambda\in M^nλˉ∈Mn (resp. λˉ\bar\lambdaλˉ with all coordinates positive) satisfying ∑iλˉiτici≥v(τ,λˉ)\sum_i\bar\lambda^i\tau_ic_i\ge v(\tau,\bar\lambda)∑i​λˉiτi​ci​≥v(τ,λˉ) for every τ∈[0,1]n\tau\in[0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n.

A usual NTU game lives on a family C\mathcal{C}C of coalitions that contains NNN and every singleton. For each A∈CA\in\mathcal{C}A∈C, the set V(A)⊆RAV(A)\subseteq\mathbb{R}^AV(A)⊆RA is nonempty, closed, convex, comprehensive and bounded above. A balance of τ\tauτ is a vector of weights m≥0m\ge 0m≥0 on C\mathcal{C}C with ∑A∋im(A)=τi\sum_{A\ni i}m(A)=\tau_i∑A∋i​m(A)=τi​ for every iii, and C(τ)\mathcal{C}(\tau)C(τ) is the set of balances of τ\tauτ. The fuzzy extension of the game is

πV(τ)=⋃m∈C(τ) ∑A∈Cm(A) V(A),\pi V(\tau)=\bigcup_{m\in\mathcal{C}(\tau)}\ \sum_{A\in\mathcal{C}} m(A)\,V(A),πV(τ)=m∈C(τ)⋃​ A∈C∑​m(A)V(A),

and the game is balanced if V(N)=πV(τN)V(N)=\pi V(\tau^N)V(N)=πV(τN).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1

For a balanced game without side payments,

∅≠core⁡(πV)⊆core⁡(V),CCEstrong(V)⊆core⁡(πV)⊆CCEweak(V),\emptyset\neq\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(V),\qquad \mathrm{CCE}_{\rm strong}(V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\mathrm{CCE}_{\rm weak}(V),∅=core(πV)⊆core(V),CCEstrong​(V)⊆core(πV)⊆CCEweak​(V),

and in particular core⁡(V)≠∅\operatorname{core}(V)\neq\emptysetcore(V)=∅.

Milestones

  • Proposition 3.1: c∈V(τN)c\in V(\tau^N)c∈V(τN) is in the core iff the maximum complaint α(c)=sup⁡τ≠0inf⁡λ∈Mτ[v(τ,λ)−∑iλiτici]\alpha(c)=\sup_{\tau\neq0}\inf_{\lambda\in M^\tau}[v(\tau,\lambda)-\sum_i\lambda^i\tau_ic_i]α(c)=supτ=0​infλ∈Mτ​[v(τ,λ)−∑i​λiτi​ci​] is ≤0\le 0≤0.
  • Proof of Theorem 3.1(b): if VVV is superadditive, V(τ)+V(σ)⊆V(τ+σ)V(\tau)+V(\sigma)\subseteq V(\tau+\sigma)V(τ)+V(σ)⊆V(τ+σ), then τ↦v(τ,λ)\tau\mapsto v(\tau,\lambda)τ↦v(τ,λ) is concave on R+n\mathbb{R}^n_+R+n​.
  • Theorem 3.1: strong equilibria lie in the core, and for a superadditive game the core lies in the set of weak equilibria.
  • Theorem 5.1: a superadditive fuzzy game has a nonempty core.
  • §7, (6), (7), (11): πV\pi VπV is a superadditive fuzzy game that extends VVV, and its support function is πv(τ,λ)=sup⁡m∈C(τ)∑Am(A)v(A,λ)\pi v(\tau,\lambda)=\sup_{m\in\mathcal{C}(\tau)}\sum_A m(A)v(A,\lambda)πv(τ,λ)=supm∈C(τ)​∑A​m(A)v(A,λ).
  • §7 and the proof of Theorem 7.1: under balancedness, core⁡(πV)⊆core⁡(V)\operatorname{core}(\pi V)\subseteq\operatorname{core}(V)core(πV)⊆core(V), and the equilibria of VVV coincide with those of πV\pi VπV.

Significance

Theorem 7.1 gives the core existence result for convex NTU games under Billera's balancedness condition. Its proof goes through a statement about fuzzy coalitions, Theorem 5.1, which uses no combinatorial pivoting. That theorem also has independent uses. Its fuzzy core is the solution concept that §4 of the paper identifies with Walras equilibria of exchange economies. The canonical cooperative equilibria give a price-like certificate, a common rate of transfer λˉ\bar\lambdaλˉ, that sandwiches the core.

The results are classical and proved. Prove2Me holds no statement of Scarf's or Billera's theorem, of NTU cores, or of balancedness for games without side payments, and Mathlib has none of these notions. The mission produces faithful statements of the paper's chain of results, and their proofs once solvers close them. It also builds reusable infrastructure: support functions of comprehensive sets, Minkowski combinations indexed by balances, and positively homogeneous set-valued maps.

Difficulty

Most of §7 is bookkeeping with Minkowski sums. The hard part is Theorem 5.1, the existence of a point in the fuzzy core. The core is defined by infinitely many exclusion conditions, one for each τ∈[0,1]n\tau\in[0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n, so a finite intersection argument does not apply directly. The paper's route works with prices: it uses the superdifferential of the concave map τ↦v(τ,λ)\tau\mapsto v(\tau,\lambda)τ↦v(τ,λ) at τN\tau^NτN, Ky Fan's inequality on a truncated simplex where all λi≥ε\lambda_i\ge\varepsilonλi​≥ε, and a limit as ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0. That limit requires compactness of the approximating payoffs, and at the boundary of the simplex the superdifferential map is not upper semicontinuous. Theorem 3.1(b) needs a minisup theorem for a function that is concave in τ\tauτ and convex and lower semicontinuous in λ\lambdaλ. Mathlib has neither Ky Fan's inequality nor this minimax theorem in that form.

Formalization scope

All statements import one definitions file, FuzzyGames.NTUCore.Basic. The formalization commits to the following conventions.

  • Players are Fin n, and payoffs, fuzzy coalitions and rates of transfer are Fin n → ℝ, ordered coordinatewise. Rτ\mathbb{R}^\tauRτ is encoded as "vanishes where τi=0\tau_i=0τi​=0", which equals τ⋅Rn\tau\cdot\mathbb{R}^nτ⋅Rn for τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0.
  • Fuzzy games are defined directly on the orthant τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0, the paper's extension of VVV from [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n by homogeneity. Homogeneity holds for every t>0t>0t>0, and superadditivity holds on R+n\mathbb{R}^n_+R+n​.
  • Support functions, α\alphaα and πv\pi vπv take values in EReal, so an unbounded supremum is +∞+\infty+∞ and never a junk 000.
  • The supremum defining α(c)\alpha(c)α(c) ranges over τ≠0\tau\neq0τ=0. Since M0=∅M^0=\emptysetM0=∅, including τ=0\tau=0τ=0 would make α≡+∞\alpha\equiv+\inftyα≡+∞ and Proposition 3.1 false. Blocking coalitions are likewise τ≠0\tau\neq0τ=0, as in §3 (4).
  • C\mathcal{C}C is a finite family of nonempty coalitions that contains NNN and every singleton. "∀A≠∅\forall A\neq\emptyset∀A=∅" in §7 ranges over C\mathcal{C}C.
  • The paper leaves n≥1n\ge1n≥1 implicit. Theorem 3.1(b) and Theorem 5.1 carry 0<n0<n0<n: for n=0n=0n=0 the simplex is empty while the core is not.
  • In §7 (11), πv(τ,λ)\pi v(\tau,\lambda)πv(τ,λ), which the paper uses without defining it, is taken to be the extension §6 (2) applied to A↦v(A,λ)A\mapsto v(A,\lambda)A↦v(A,λ), for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0.
  • The §7 sentence after (5) is stated with two extra conclusions: πV(τ)\pi V(\tau)πV(τ) is nonempty and contained in Rτ\mathbb{R}^\tauRτ. These are the remaining requirements of §3 (3) that are needed to apply Theorem 5.1.
  • Sums and scalings of sets are Mathlib's pointwise operations.

The fuzzy-game axioms are a Prop-valued structure and are hypotheses of every theorem. The core and the equilibria are defined for an arbitrary set-valued map, so the theorems about πV\pi VπV do not presuppose that it is a fuzzy game. That fact is the content of the §7 milestones and is not assumed. Non-vacuity has been checked locally on a concrete instance: V(τ)={c∈Rτ:c≤τ}V(\tau)=\{c\in\mathbb{R}^\tau: c\le\tau\}V(τ)={c∈Rτ:c≤τ} is a superadditive fuzzy game, and V(A)={c∈RA:c≤τA}V(A)=\{c\in\mathbb{R}^A:c\le\tau^A\}V(A)={c∈RA:c≤τA} is a balanced game on every admissible C\mathcal{C}C, with (1,…,1)(1,\dots,1)(1,…,1) in both cores.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the §7 Minkowski-sum lemmas, the support-function identities, and a minisup or Ky Fan theorem in the form the proofs need. Reusable pieces include support functions of comprehensive sets and Sion-type minimax.

Selected references

  • J.-P. Aubin, Cooperative Fuzzy Games, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1) (1981) 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.1
  • H. E. Scarf, The Core of an N Person Game, Econometrica 35(1) (1967) 50–69. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909888
  • L. J. Billera, Some Theorems on the Core of an n-Person Game without Side-Payments, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 18(3) (1970) 567–579. https://doi.org/10.1137/0118053
  • K. Fan, A Minimax Inequality and Applications, in O. Shisha (ed.), Inequalities III, Academic Press (1972) 103–113.
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Algorithmic Game Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model: The Perfect Equilibrium Partitions Are the Nonempty Closed Intervals A = Δ₁ and B = Δ₂ = A − εResearch Paper

Motivation

Alternating-offer bargaining asks how an agreement is selected when two people can keep making proposals until one accepts. A prediction based only on behavior at the start may rely on threats that would no longer be sensible after a rejection. Ariel Rubinstein's 1982 paper studies strategies after every possible sequence of offers and gives a characterization of the partitions compatible with perfect equilibrium. Its setting has a unit pie, complete information, no fixed last round, and preferences that may describe more than a particular discount formula.

The question matters for sequential bargaining models in which the order of moves and the cost of delay affect the agreement. The paper distinguishes the set obtained when player 1 offers first from the set obtained when player 2 offers first. It also provides applications to fixed bargaining costs and fixed discount factors. This mission targets the paper's general characterization, from which those examples can be studied without building a new equilibrium concept for each preference family.

Setting

A partition is a number s∈S=[0,1]s\in S=[0,1]s∈S=[0,1]: player 1 receives sss of the unit pie and player 2 receives 1−s1-s1−s. An outcome (s,t)(s,t)(s,t) means that the offer sss is accepted in period ttt; (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) denotes perpetual disagreement. Periods of actual play start at 1. The paper also uses (s,0)(s,0)(s,0) when comparing acceptance of a current offer with a future outcome. Each player i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a complete, reflexive, transitive preference relation ≽i\succcurlyeq_i≽i​ on outcomes. Strict preference ≻i\succ_i≻i​ and indifference ∼i\sim_i∼i​ are derived from it.

The game alternates proposals and responses. One player offers a partition, the other accepts or rejects, and rejection makes the responder the next proposer. A strategy specifies what a player does after every possible history, including histories inconsistent with the player's earlier plans. A perfect equilibrium requires the relevant player's continuation to withstand every alternative continuation strategy at each rejected history and to make a planned acceptance or rejection consistent with the current offer. The empty history is included, so the opening proposer must also have no profitable deviation.

Write AAA for the set of player-1 shares reached by perfect equilibria when player 1 opens, and BBB for the corresponding set when player 2 opens. Perpetual disagreement contributes no share to either set. Define Δ⊆S×S\Delta\subseteq S\times SΔ⊆S×S by a pair of one-period thresholds: for (x,y)∈Δ(x,y)\in\Delta(x,y)∈Δ, yyy is the smallest share whose immediate acceptance player 1 weakly prefers to (x,1)(x,1)(x,1), and xxx is the largest share whose immediate acceptance player 2 weakly prefers to (y,1)(y,1)(y,1). Let Δ1\Delta_1Δ1​ and Δ2\Delta_2Δ2​ be its coordinate projections. All four sets contain numbers interpreted as player-1 shares, even when player 2 moves first. These are the objects of Sections 2–5.

Formalization targets

Characterization

Under the paper's five preference assumptions (A-1)–(A-5), the goal is its THEOREM on p. 106:

A=Δ1≠∅,B=Δ2≠∅,A=\Delta_1\ne\varnothing,\qquad B=\Delta_2\ne\varnothing,A=Δ1​=∅,B=Δ2​=∅,

with AAA and BBB nonempty closed intervals and some e≥0e\ge 0e≥0 satisfying

B={a−e:a∈A}.B=\{a-e:a\in A\}.B={a−e:a∈A}.

The translation parameter is allowed to be zero, and either interval may be a single point. The goal fixes the paper's general shape without choosing a particular utility representation or assuming immediate agreement in every equilibrium.

Milestone statements

The attack path follows Lemmas 1–4 and Propositions 1–4 in their printed order. The lemmas constrain how a partition in one opening order relates to a feasible continuation in the other. Proposition 1 places each pair in Δ\DeltaΔ inside A×BA\times BA×B; Proposition 2 asserts existence; Proposition 3 describes Δ\DeltaΔ as a closed segment parallel to the diagonal; Proposition 4 gives the reverse containment of AAA and BBB in the threshold projections. Each numbered result is a separate theorem target.

Significance

The theorem identifies the full set of equilibrium partitions from preference comparisons one period apart. Nonemptiness says the model admits at least one equilibrium partition in either opening order. The interval conclusion describes cases with multiple equilibrium shares, while the translate relation states exactly how reversing the first mover changes the two sets. In the paper's discounting example, a single share is selected under the stated parameter conditions; in a fixed-cost boundary case, multiple shares can occur. These are applications in Section 6, not assumptions of the general target.

Rubinstein proved the result in 1982. Here the definitions and theorem statements are Lean drafts; the numbered targets and the main theorem still require machine-checked proofs. A local verification module establishes that one discounting instance satisfies the first three axioms and that the paper's Section 3 strategy example accepts its first offer in period 1. Completing the mission would give a reusable formal account of an infinite-horizon alternating-offer game and its subgame equilibrium conditions, alongside the paper's characterization.

Difficulty

A first-round equilibrium condition does not control what a strategy promises after an offer is rejected. The paper's equilibrium definition checks the entire continuation at every history, with the player's role changing after each rejection. As a result, showing that a proposed share is an equilibrium partition requires more than checking the opening offer: the answer and the next proposal must remain consistent throughout the game tree. The model also allows arbitrary complete preferences satisfying axioms, so a calculation with one discount function cannot establish the general theorem.

The boundary at a zero share requires care. Assumption (A-2) asserts strict preference for earlier positive shares; it says nothing directly about a player receiving zero. The printed proof of Lemma 1 invokes it for a comparison that can occur at that boundary. The local lemma drafts explicitly carry the paper's (A-4) closedness axiom to support that comparison. This added assumption, and its propagation to Lemmas 2–4, is disclosed in the audit notes rather than silently attributed to the Section 4 statement.

Formalization scope

Lean represents SSS as the subtype of real numbers in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Outcomes are an option type: an agreement contains a partition and a natural-number period, while none is perpetual disagreement. This prevents an endless play from acquiring a default last partition. Strategies are unrestricted functions of lists of past offers. The play uses the first accepted offer, with period number one greater than its zero-based sequence index. A subgame after a rejected history restarts the period count and swaps the opening role when the history has odd length. The perfect-equilibrium predicate includes the empty history; acceptance comparisons use period 0 for the offer already on the table.

The threshold correspondence uses actual least and greatest elements among partitions in SSS. No real infimum or supremum supplies a default for an empty candidate set. “Closed interval” in the goal means an explicit [ℓ,u][\ell,u][ℓ,u] with ℓ≤u\ell\le uℓ≤u. “A−eA-eA−e” is the image of AAA under a↦a−ea\mapsto a-ea↦a−e. Proposition 3's “parallel line segment” is the full image of a nonempty interval under x↦(x,x−e)x\mapsto(x,x-e)x↦(x,x−e). These readings exclude a vacuous equilibrium set, a disagreement-to-zero coercion, and a hard-coded discounting special case.

The common outcome and preference definitions, the history-based strategy and play, and the equilibrium predicate are reusable for other alternating-offer questions. Contributions toward their structural properties, the numbered milestones, and the full theorem are in scope. The two displayed claims inside proofs and the fixed-cost and discounting conclusions are deferred to keep this proposal on the theorem's numbered path. Existing platform entries on Nash's axiomatic bargaining solution and a sealed-offer double auction concern different objects; neither supplies this game's equilibrium definition.

Selected references

  • Ariel Rubinstein, Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model, Econometrica 50(1), 97–109, 1982. DOI 10.2307/1912531.
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Complexity TheoryDynamic ProgrammingMathematical Logic·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes V: A Quantified Boolean Formula Is True Iff Its Partially Observed Markov Decision Process Has a Zero-Cost PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision process is the standard model of sequential decision making under uncertainty: a controller observes the state of a finite system, chooses a decision, pays a cost, and the system moves to a random next state. In many applications (maintenance, inventory with unreliable records, robotics, medical treatment) the controller does not see the state itself, only partial information about it. This is the partially observed problem, and the usual way to solve it is to replace the state by the conditional distribution of the state given the observations (Åström 1965; Bertsekas). That reformulation has an infinite state space, and Smallwood and Sondik (1973) showed that the finite-horizon cost-to-go is nevertheless piecewise linear, but with a number of pieces that may grow exponentially with the horizon.

Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (Math. Oper. Res. 12(3), 1987) asked whether this blow-up is an artefact of the reformulation or intrinsic to the problem. Their Theorem 6 answers it: deciding whether a partially observed process can achieve a given expected cost is PSPACE-hard, already for stationary processes and horizons shorter than the number of states. This mission formalizes the reduction behind that theorem.

Setting

A partially observed stationary Markov decision process has a finite state set SSS, a partition Π\PiΠ of SSS, and an initial state s0s_0s0​. For a state sss write z(s)∈Πz(s) \in \Piz(s)∈Π for the set containing it. Each set zzz carries a nonempty finite set DzD_zDz​ of decisions; decision i∈Dzi \in D_zi∈Dz​ costs c(z,i)c(z, i)c(z,i) and moves a current state s∈zs \in zs∈z to the next state s′s's′ with probability p(s,s′,i)p(s, s', i)p(s,s′,i). The controller sees only the sequence of sets visited, so a policy π\piπ maps each observation sequence z0,…,ztz_0, \dots, z_tz0​,…,zt​ to a decision in DztD_{z_t}Dzt​​. For a horizon TTT, the expected cost of π\piπ is

Jπ(T)=Eπ[∑t=0Tc(z(st),π(z(s0),…,z(st)))],J_\pi(T) = \mathbb{E}_\pi\Bigl[\sum_{t=0}^{T} c\bigl(z(s_t), \pi(z(s_0), \dots, z(s_t))\bigr)\Bigr],Jπ​(T)=Eπ​[t=0∑T​c(z(st​),π(z(s0​),…,z(st​)))],

and the optimal cost is inf⁡πJπ(T)\inf_\pi J_\pi(T)infπ​Jπ​(T).

A quantified Boolean formula is Q1x1⋯Qnxn F(x1,…,xn)Q_1 x_1 \cdots Q_n x_n\, F(x_1, \dots, x_n)Q1​x1​⋯Qn​xn​F(x1​,…,xn​) with each Qj∈{∃,∀}Q_j \in \{\exists, \forall\}Qj​∈{∃,∀} and FFF a conjunction of mmm clauses C1,…,CmC_1, \dots, C_mC1​,…,Cm​, each a set of literals xjx_jxj​ or ¬xj\neg x_j¬xj​. It is true if there is a value of x1x_1x1​ such that for all values of x2x_2x2​, and so on, FFF comes out true. Deciding truth (QSAT) is PSPACE-complete (Stockmeyer and Meyer 1973).

From a formula with m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 clauses the paper builds a process MφM_\varphiMφ​: an initial state, six states Aij,Aij′,Tij,Tij′,Fij,Fij′A_{ij}, A'_{ij}, T_{ij}, T'_{ij}, F_{ij}, F'_{ij}Aij​,Aij′​,Tij​,Tij′​,Fij​,Fij′​ per clause iii and variable jjj, end states Ai,n+1,Ai,n+1′A_{i,n+1}, A'_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1​,Ai,n+1′​, and one absorbing state, so ∣S∣=6mn+2m+2|S| = 6mn + 2m + 2∣S∣=6mn+2m+2. The first transition chooses a clause uniformly; primed states record that the chosen clause is not yet satisfied; existential variables are set by decisions and universal ones by fair coins; the only nonzero cost, 111, is paid at Ai,n+1′A'_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1′​. The horizon is T=2n+2T = 2n + 2T=2n+2.

Formalization targets

Goal: the reduction is correct

For every formula φ\varphiφ in the paper's QSAT class (an alternating prefix beginning with ∃x1\exists x_1∃x1​ and ending with ∀xn\forall x_n∀xn​, and three literals per clause), with m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 clauses and T=2n+2T = 2n+2T=2n+2,

T<∣S∣,(∃π: Jπ(T)=0)  ⟺  φ is true,inf⁡πJπ(T)≤0  ⟺  φ is true.T < |S|, \qquad \bigl(\exists \pi:\ J_\pi(T) = 0\bigr) \iff \varphi \text{ is true}, \qquad \inf_\pi J_\pi(T) \le 0 \iff \varphi \text{ is true}.T<∣S∣,(∃π: Jπ​(T)=0)⟺φ is true,πinf​Jπ​(T)≤0⟺φ is true.

The goal states all three claims the paper makes: the horizon bound (p. 448), the existence of a zero-cost policy (p. 449), and the bound on the optimum (p. 448).

Milestones

  1. The cost splits over the clause chosen at time 1: each clause is chosen with probability 1/m1/m1/m, and a policy has zero expected cost iff it has zero cost for every choice of clause.
  2. If a trajectory of positive probability ends in Ai,n+1′A'_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1′​, the expected cost is at least 2−n/m2^{-n}/m2−n/m.
  3. A zero-cost policy makes the formula true.
  4. A true formula yields a zero-cost policy.

Significance

Theorem 6 locates the partially observed finite-horizon problem in the complexity landscape: unless P = PSPACE there is no polynomial-time algorithm for it, even for stationary processes with short horizons. The paper's Corollary 1 strengthens this into evidence that no polynomial-size precomputed controller exists either. Together these results explain why exact algorithms for partially observed processes are exponential and motivated the later work on approximation and on restricted policy classes.

The formalization adds a machine-checked proof of the correctness of the reduction, the step on which the hardness claim rests, together with a reusable definition of a finite partially observed process with observation-history policies and of quantified Boolean formulas. The paper's argument is a short paragraph; a formal proof has to make precise how a policy that only sees observation sequences determines a strategy for the existential player. As far as we know, no machine-checked proof of this reduction exists.

Difficulty

The "if" direction is a direct translation of a winning strategy into a policy. The "only if" direction is where the work is. A zero-cost policy acts on observation sequences, and the paper argues that it never learns which clause was chosen. Under the paper's own partition this is not literally true: the sets TjT_jTj​ and Tj′T'_jTj′​ differ, so the observations reveal whether the chosen clause was already satisfied. The existential strategy must therefore be extracted from the policy's behaviour on the observation histories in which the clause is still unsatisfied, and one must check that it is a single strategy, independent of the clause, that satisfies every clause against every choice of the universal variables. The bound of milestone 2 also requires tracking the probability of a single trajectory through the coin flips.

Formalization scope

The process is a Lean structure POMDP S Z with an observation map obs : S → Z encoding the partition, nonempty finite decision types D z, real costs c z i, and next-state laws given as Mathlib PMFs, so every transition row is a probability vector. A policy is a function List Z → (z : Z) → D z of the earlier observations and the current one. The expected cost is a finite sum over trajectories x0,…,xTx_0, \dots, x_Tx0​,…,xT​ of their probability times ∑t=0Tc\sum_{t=0}^{T} c∑t=0T​c, and the optimum is the infimum over all policies. Paper clause CiC_iCi​ and variable xjx_jxj​ are Lean indices i−1i - 1i−1 and j−1j - 1j−1.

Choices made explicit:

  • Horizon. The paper prints T=2m+2T = 2m + 2T=2m+2 but says it is "just enough time for the process to reach one of Ai,n+1A_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1​ or Ai,n+1′A'_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1′​", which happens at time 2n+12n+12n+1. With the printed value and m<nm < nm<n the cost is never paid and every formula would map to a zero-cost process. We use T=2n+2T = 2n+2T=2n+2.
  • The set AjA_jAj​. The partition sentence puts all AijA_{ij}Aij​ and Aij′A'_{ij}Aij′​ in one set AjA_jAj​; the decision sentence mentions "the set Aj′A'_jAj′​". We follow the partition sentence.
  • The new state reached from Ai,n+1A_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1​ and Ai,n+1′A'_{i,n+1}Ai,n+1′​ is unspecified; it gets its own set, one zero-cost decision and a self-loop.
  • Formulas. The general QBF definition allows any quantifier prefix and clause width. Every theorem assumes IsPaperQSAT, which requires the paper's alternating prefix ∃x1∀x2⋯∀xn\exists x_1 \forall x_2 \cdots \forall x_n∃x1​∀x2​⋯∀xn​ with n>0n>0n>0 even and three literals per clause. Clauses are sets of literals; three witnesses allow repetitions. m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 is also a hypothesis.
  • Decisions are nonempty; rows are probability vectors.

Policies see only observation sequences. A formalization in which the policy reads the state would make the "only if" direction false and the reduction meaningless; one in which it sees only the current observation would make the "if" direction false. Neither is admissible.

Not formalized: PSPACE-hardness itself (Mathlib has no PSPACE or polynomial-time reductions), the polynomial-time computability of the construction, the membership of the problem in PSPACE (sketched on p. 449), Corollary 1 (a Σ2p\Sigma_2^pΣ2p​ collapse) and Corollary 2 (NP-completeness of the unobserved case, stated without proof).

The definitions of partially observed processes and quantified Boolean formulas are reusable. Contributions of lemmas on trajectory sums (marginalising later coordinates, the probability of a fixed prefix) are welcome; they also serve the other missions of this series.

Selected references

  • C. H. Papadimitriou and J. N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(3), 1987, 441–450. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.3.441
  • L. J. Stockmeyer and A. R. Meyer, Word problems requiring exponential time, Proc. 5th ACM STOC, 1973, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1145/800125.804029
  • R. D. Smallwood and E. J. Sondik, The optimal control of partially observable Markov processes over a finite horizon, Operations Research 21(5), 1973, 1071–1088. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.5.1071
  • K. J. Åström, Optimal control of Markov processes with incomplete state information, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 10, 1965, 174–205. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming: Deterministic and Stochastic Models, Prentice-Hall, 1987.
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Dynamic ProgrammingGraph TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes II: The Optimal Average Cost of a Deterministic Process Is the Least Mean Cost of a Cycle Reachable from the Initial StateResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision process describes repeated choices whose costs and subsequent states depend on the current state. Such models are used when a decision affects both today's expense and the options available tomorrow. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis studied how the computational difficulty of finding an optimal policy changes between stochastic and deterministic transitions. Their general finite-state problems are P-complete, while their deterministic cases admit highly parallel algorithms Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis, 1987. The contrast makes the deterministic case a useful setting in which to isolate the precise graph problem hidden inside long-run optimization.

This mission concerns their infinite-horizon average-cost case. When transitions are certain, every decision is an arc in a directed graph. The long-run cost of a policy can be related to the mean cost of a cycle reachable from the initial state. That relation is the mathematical claim supporting the algorithm in the paper's Theorem 3, whose headline says that the deterministic average-cost problem is in NC Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis, p. 446.

Setting

Let SSS be a finite set of states and s0∈Ss_0\in Ss0​∈S the initial state. At each s∈Ss\in Ss∈S there is a finite, nonempty decision set DsD_sDs​. A decision d∈Dsd\in D_sd∈Ds​ has a real cost c(s,d)c(s,d)c(s,d) and moves the process with certainty to next⁡(s,d)∈S\operatorname{next}(s,d)\in Snext(s,d)∈S. All of these data are stationary: they do not change with time. A policy δ(s,t)\delta(s,t)δ(s,t) chooses a decision for each state and each time t=0,1,2,…t=0,1,2,\ldotst=0,1,2,…. It generates a trajectory by st+1=next⁡(st,δ(st,t))s_{t+1}=\operatorname{next}(s_t,\delta(s_t,t))st+1​=next(st​,δ(st​,t)). The corresponding directed graph has a state for each node and a decision for each arc. It may contain loops and parallel arcs, since different decisions can lead to the same next state.

The paper prints the finite average with T+1T+1T+1 cost terms and denominator TTT:

aTδ(s0)=1T∑t=0Tc(st,δ(st,t)).a_T^\delta(s_0)=\frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=0}^{T}c(s_t,\delta(s_t,t)).aTδ​(s0​)=T1​t=0∑T​c(st​,δ(st​,t)).

A time-dependent policy's averages may fail to converge. We use the upper limit gδ(s0)=lim sup⁡T→∞aTδ(s0)g^\delta(s_0)=\limsup_{T\to\infty}a_T^\delta(s_0)gδ(s0​)=limsupT→∞​aTδ​(s0​) and optimize over all policies, g∗(s0)=inf⁡δgδ(s0)g^*(s_0)=\inf_\delta g^\delta(s_0)g∗(s0​)=infδ​gδ(s0​). A state uuu is reachable if some finite walk of decision arcs goes from s0s_0s0​ to uuu. A simple cycle CCC is a positive-length closed sequence of decision arcs with distinct states before it returns to its start; its mean cost is mean⁡(C)=c(C)/∣C∣\operatorname{mean}(C)=c(C)/|C|mean(C)=c(C)/∣C∣. A loop is a one-arc simple cycle.

For states u,vu,vu,v, the min-plus adjacency entry AuvA_{uv}Auv​ is the least cost of a decision arc from uuu to vvv, or +∞+\infty+∞ when no such arc exists. A min-plus product uses addition in place of multiplication and minimum in place of addition. Thus (Ak)uv(A^k)_{uv}(Ak)uv​ represents the least cost of a kkk-arc walk from uuu to vvv, when such a walk exists Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis, pp. 445–446.

Formalization targets

Reachable cycles

The first target identifies the value of the original policy optimization problem:

g∗(s0)=min⁡C simple cycleC reachable from s0mean⁡(C).g^*(s_0)=\min_{\substack{C\text{ simple cycle}\\C\text{ reachable from }s_0}}\operatorname{mean}(C).g∗(s0​)=C simple cycleC reachable from s0​​min​mean(C).

It also states that a policy attains this value with convergent finite averages. The milestone for following a reachable cycle gives the attainable direction; the milestone saying that no policy can improve the least mean gives the reverse direction. The latter is formulated with lim inf⁡\liminfliminf, so it applies even when a policy's averages oscillate.

Min-plus calculation

The second target identifies the finite graph calculation used in the paper:

g∗(s0)=min⁡u reachable from s01≤k≤∣S∣(Ak)uu<+∞(Ak)uuk.g^*(s_0)=\min_{\substack{u\text{ reachable from }s_0\\1\leq k\leq |S|\\(A^k)_{uu}<+\infty}}\frac{(A^k)_{uu}}{k}.g∗(s0​)=u reachable from s0​1≤k≤∣S∣(Ak)uu​<+∞​min​k(Ak)uu​​.

The milestones establish what a min-plus power says about decision walks and why closed walks of lengths from 111 through ∣S∣|S|∣S∣ recover the least simple-cycle mean. The restriction to reachable uuu is essential: a cheap cycle in a disconnected component cannot be used from s0s_0s0​.

Significance

The result reduces optimization over infinitely many decision times and all state-and-time policies to finitely many closed-walk calculations. It also guarantees that an optimal long-run value is realized by a trajectory with a genuine limiting average, despite the nonconvergence possible for other policies. The finite formula lets one determine the value by comparing graph quantities indexed by states and lengths; it is the correctness statement beneath the paper's parallel algorithm Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis, p. 446.

Formalizing the identity creates a reusable bridge between deterministic decision processes, weighted directed walks and min-plus powers. Related proved tropical-algebra results on maximum cycle means use dense matrices and a max-plus convention, rather than the reachable, possibly missing-arc, minimum-cost process here; for example, the platform's TropicalLA.tpow_isGreatest concerns greatest walk weights. The present mission keeps the policy optimum and reachability explicit. The paper proves the result mathematically; these Lean statements are open proof targets in the proposal.

Difficulty

An arbitrary policy can keep changing its choices at repeated visits to the same state. Its averages can oscillate, so one cannot simply assume that its infinite trajectory becomes periodic or that its printed limit exists. The lower-bound claim must apply to every such trajectory. There is a second distinction between a closed walk and a simple cycle: a diagonal min-plus entry allows repeated states, whereas the cycle characterization is stated using simple cycles. Finally, an unrestricted matrix calculation would include cycles unreachable from the chosen initial state.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the general finite stationary deterministic process in its own definition, then defines policies, finite walks, simple cycles, average costs and min-plus powers on top of it. Decisions are arcs, so parallel arcs remain distinguishable; AuvA_{uv}Auv​ takes their least cost and uses WithTop ℝ for a missing arc. Decision sets are explicitly nonempty because a policy has to make a choice at every state. The finite state set is automatically nonempty once s0s_0s0​ is supplied. Policy time starts at zero. The printed T+1T+1T+1 terms divided by TTT are retained; Lean's T=0T=0T=0 quotient is zero and has no effect on the limit. The optimum is the infimum over all policies δ(s,t)\delta(s,t)δ(s,t), not a quantity defined by cycles or by stationary policies. Finite states and finite decision sets bound the one-step costs and hence the averages; this gives real limsup and infimum their intended values.

The paper's Theorem 3 asserts membership in NC. This mission formalizes the exact optimization identity that makes that algorithm correct. Its processor count and parallel-time bound are outside the scope, as are membership in P, log-space computability of reductions, PSPACE membership and the paper's Corollaries 1–2. Contributions to the finite-walk and min-plus lemmas, the lower bound for arbitrary policy paths, and the cycle-attainment statement are all needed; the graph definitions can be reused in other deterministic control problems.

Selected references

  • Christos H. Papadimitriou and John N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(3), 1987, pp. 441–450. DOI.
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CombinatoricsDynamic ProgrammingGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes IV: In a Deterministic Process a Cheapest T-Arc Walk Is a Walk of Fewer Than n³ Arcs Plus One Repeated CycleResearch Paper

Motivation

Finite-horizon Markov decision processes ask which decisions minimize accumulated cost over a specified number of stages. In a stationary process, the same costs and transitions apply at every stage. This compact input can describe a horizon TTT much larger than the state set, so a method that processes all TTT stages one by one may take time exponential in the length of the written horizon. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis identified this issue while comparing sequential and parallel algorithms for decision processes. For the deterministic stationary case, their Theorem 5 states an NC classification, supported by a finite structural description of a cheapest long walk. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987)

The structural description is the subject of this mission. It connects a policy optimization problem to bounded-length graph objects and an exact cost identity. This is useful independently of a particular model of parallel computation: it says which shorter walk and cycle costs determine the answer even when the horizon is very large. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Setting

Let SSS be a finite nonempty set of states, with n=∣S∣n=|S|n=∣S∣, and fix an initial state s0s_0s0​. At each state sss, a finite nonempty set DsD_sDs​ contains the available decisions. A decision d∈Dsd\in D_sd∈Ds​ has a certain successor state next⁡(s,d)\operatorname{next}(s,d)next(s,d) and a real cost c(s,d)c(s,d)c(s,d). The model is stationary: these data do not depend on time. The corresponding directed graph has one arc for each decision. It may have loops and parallel arcs, because distinct decisions can share endpoints. This is the deterministic graph translation made in §3 of the paper. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 444–445

A policy is a function δ(s,t)∈Ds\delta(s,t)\in D_sδ(s,t)∈Ds​ of both state and time. Starting at s0s_0s0​, it produces st+1=next⁡(st,δ(st,t))s_{t+1}=\operatorname{next}(s_t,\delta(s_t,t))st+1​=next(st​,δ(st​,t)). In the convention of the paragraph before Theorem 5, horizon TTT means TTT decisions and therefore a walk with TTT arcs. Its cost is

JT(s0,δ)=∑t=0T−1c(st,δ(st,t)),JT∗(s0)=inf⁡δJT(s0,δ).J_T(s_0,\delta)=\sum_{t=0}^{T-1}c(s_t,\delta(s_t,t)),\qquad J_T^*(s_0)=\inf_\delta J_T(s_0,\delta).JT​(s0​,δ)=t=0∑T−1​c(st​,δ(st​,t)),JT∗​(s0​)=δinf​JT​(s0​,δ).

A walk records the states and the decision arc used at each step; states may repeat. A simple path has no repeated state. A simple cycle has positive length, returns to its starting state, and has no other repeated state. A closed walk may repeat states internally and need not be a simple cycle. The distinction matters because the structural claim uses a simple cycle, whereas the computation in the target identity uses a cheapest closed walk of a chosen length.

Formalization targets

The first milestone identifies JT∗(s0)J_T^*(s_0)JT∗​(s0​) with the minimum cost of a TTT-arc walk from s0s_0s0​. The next milestones record a decomposition into a simple path and simple cycles, the restriction on cycles repeated more than nnn times, and the existence of a cheapest walk with a short prefix and one repeated simple cycle. These are claims in the paragraph preceding Theorem 5, with corrections to the printed exchange and its connectivity justification documented in the formal statements. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

For l≤Tl\le Tl≤T and u∈Su\in Su∈S, let wl,uw_{l,u}wl,u​ be the cheapest lll-arc walk from s0s_0s0​ that visits uuu. Let rk,ur_{k,u}rk,u​ be the cheapest closed kkk-arc walk at uuu. Only choices for which these walks exist are included. The mission's goal is

JT∗(s0)=min⁡l≤T, l<n3, u∈S,1≤k≤n, k∣T−l(wl,u+T−lk rk,u),T>n2.J_T^*(s_0)=\min_{\substack{l\le T,\ l<n^3,\ u\in S,\\1\le k\le n,\ k\mid T-l}}\left(w_{l,u}+\frac{T-l}{k}\,r_{k,u}\right),\qquad T>n^2.JT∗​(s0​)=l≤T, l<n3, u∈S,1≤k≤n, k∣T−l​min​(wl,u​+kT−l​rk,u​),T>n2.

The l<n3l<n^3l<n3 bound is the paper's finite compression claim. The divisibility condition makes (T−l)/k(T-l)/k(T−l)/k an integer number of cycle copies. The goal states an exact value, with the inner minima taken over genuine walks and the outer optimum still taken over all policies. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Significance

The identity replaces an optimization over arbitrarily many time-dependent policy decisions with costs of walks having fewer than n3n^3n3 arcs and closed walks of at most nnn arcs. It gives the mathematical statement that must hold before the paper's proposed parallel calculation can be trusted. It also applies when several different decisions have the same endpoints, because each decision remains a separate weighted arc. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 445, 447

The paper proves the result informally and states the NC classification. The mission seeks machine-checked proofs of the graph and cost statements, including the printed argument's delicate boundary cases. The local proposal contains open Lean theorem statements, not proofs. Reusable outcomes include a decision-walk representation, a cycle decomposition that preserves the multiset of arcs, and finite-horizon policy-to-walk equivalence. A related published result, TropicalLA.exists_repeat, detects repetition for dense max-plus matrices; it does not state this weighted multigraph decomposition or the min-cost identity.

Difficulty

The obstacle is preserving both walk feasibility and the exact number of arcs when repeated cycles are rearranged. A cycle may be the only connection to other parts of a walk, so deleting its last copy can invalidate the remaining sequence. The printed exchange paragraph also reverses the cost-improving direction and appeals to a no-ties perturbation without carrying it through the bounded-prefix conclusion. Those issues affect the claimed n3n^3n3 bound; merely knowing that a long walk repeats a vertex does not establish the target identity. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Formalization scope

Lean represents SSS and each DsD_sDs​ as finite types and uses real costs. The decision sets are nonempty, making policies and arbitrarily long walks available. Policies depend on state and time, as in §2. A walk stores its decisions as well as its states, so loops and parallel arcs are represented. Cycle decompositions preserve endpoints, length, cost, and the multiset of decision arcs. A loop is a simple cycle of length one. Time starts at zero, and an lll-arc walk has states at indices 0,…,l0,\ldots,l0,…,l.

The paper's general finite-horizon definition sums costs from 000 through TTT, while the Theorem 5 paragraph explicitly asks for a TTT-arc walk. This mission follows the latter convention: decisions occur at 0,…,T−10,\ldots,T-10,…,T−1. The goal also imposes l≤Tl\le Tl≤T, which the printed loop leaves implicit, and uses a closed walk for rk,ur_{k,u}rk,u​ because that is what the length-kkk graph calculation computes. It does not assume distinct walk costs. The condition T>n2T>n^2T>n2 is retained from the paper even though related identities may hold in other ranges. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 444, 447

Theorem 5's NC membership, processor and parallel-time bounds, the membership-in-P discussion, log-space reductions, PSPACE membership, and Corollaries 1–2 are outside this mission. Mathlib does not supply the PRAM and complexity-class framework those claims require. The target is the exact cost identity behind the algorithm. Defining the optimum directly as the right-hand minimum, restricting policies to stationary policies, or allowing an empty policy class would trivialize or change it. Contributions proving the milestones, the goal, or reusable walk and cycle facts are welcome.

Selected references

  • Christos H. Papadimitriou and John N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(3), 441–450, 1987. DOI: 10.1287/moor.12.3.441
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Wait-and-Judge Scenario Optimization 2: Over Generic Sets, P^N{V(x_N) > ε(s_N)} ≤ γ*, the Least ξ(1) over Degree-N Polynomials Feasible for (31)Research Paper

Motivation

A solution of a scenario optimization program is chosen after observing finitely many uncertain constraints. Its future reliability depends on constraints that were not sampled. The usual advance question asks how many samples are needed to make every output reliable. Campi and Garatti instead ask what can be certified after solving the program, when the number of sampled constraints that actually determined its solution is visible. Their wait-and-judge result uses that observed number to set a violation threshold. This mission concerns their extension from convex programs in finite-dimensional spaces to programs over an arbitrary decision set, with no convexity requirement.

The generic extension matters when a dimension bound on the number of influential constraints is unavailable. A decision may be a combinatorial object, a function, or an element of an infinite-dimensional space. The paper allows the support count to range from zero to the full sample size NNN, and its threshold includes the case of NNN support constraints. The paper's Section 6 gives the model and its two probability guarantees.

Setting

Let SSS be a set of decisions. A subset X⊆SX\subseteq SX⊆S is the domain; a real function f:S→Rf:S\to\mathbb Rf:S→R is the cost. An uncertain outcome δ\deltaδ belongs to a measurable space Δ\DeltaΔ with probability measure PPP, and imposes a constraint set Xδ⊆SX_\delta\subseteq SXδ​⊆S. For a sample ω=(δ(1),…,δ(N))\omega=(\delta^{(1)},\ldots,\delta^{(N)})ω=(δ(1),…,δ(N)) of NNN independent outcomes, the program minimizes f(x)f(x)f(x) over x∈Xx\in Xx∈X that belongs to every sampled Xδ(i)X_{\delta^{(i)}}Xδ(i)​. The sample law is PNP^NPN. There is no algebraic or topological condition on the feasible sets or on fff.

A fixed finite sequence of real tie-break functions is minimized lexicographically after the original cost. This selects one solution xN∗(ω)x_N^*(\omega)xN∗​(ω) whenever the program has a selected minimizer. Assumption 1 requires existence and uniqueness for every finite sample, including the empty one. A sampled constraint is a support constraint if removing it changes this selected solution. The number of support constraints is sN∗(ω)s_N^*(\omega)sN∗​(ω). Assumption 2 says that, with probability one, keeping only the support constraints gives the same selected solution. Both assumptions are part of the source's generic setting; they are substantive restrictions even though the sets and cost are otherwise arbitrary.

The violation of a decision is V(x)=P{δ:x∉Xδ}V(x)=P\{\delta:x\notin X_\delta\}V(x)=P{δ:x∈/Xδ​}. Thus V(xN∗)V(x_N^*)V(xN∗​) is the probability that a fresh constraint rejects the computed solution. Since the solution and support count depend on the sample, the wait-and-judge event uses a threshold function ε\varepsilonε evaluated at the observed count, {V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}. For each k≥0k\ge0k≥0, the paper also uses a generalized distribution function Fk(v)=Pk{V(xk∗)≤v, sk∗=k}F_k(v)=P^k\{V(x_k^*)\le v,\ s_k^*=k\}Fk​(v)=Pk{V(xk∗​)≤v, sk∗​=k}. It need not have total mass one.

Formalization targets

Variational bound, Theorem 3

For any N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and any [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued ε\varepsilonε on {0,…,N}\{0,\ldots,N\}{0,…,N}, let γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ be the infimum of feasible values q(1)q(1)q(1) over real polynomials of degree at most NNN satisfying

q(k)(t)k!≥(Nk)tN−k1[0,1−ε(k))(t),0≤k≤N,0≤t≤1.\frac{q^{(k)}(t)}{k!}\ge {N\choose k}t^{N-k}{\bf1}_{[0,1-\varepsilon(k))}(t),\qquad 0\le k\le N,\quad 0\le t\le1.k!q(k)(t)​≥(kN​)tN−k1[0,1−ε(k))​(t),0≤k≤N,0≤t≤1.

The goal is the paper's Theorem 3:

PN{V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}≤γ∗.P^N\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}\le\gamma^*.PN{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}≤γ∗.

The polynomial value retains the full dependence on the chosen threshold function. The source prints an extraneous ddd in Theorem 3's range for kkk; its generic setting and variational problem use 0≤k≤N0\le k\le N0≤k≤N.

Explicit confidence bound, Theorem 4

For 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, the paper's Theorem 4 defines t(k)∈(0,1)t(k)\in(0,1)t(k)∈(0,1) as the unique root of

βN+1∑m=kN(mk)tm−k−(Nk)tN−k=0(0≤k<N).\frac{\beta}{N+1}\sum_{m=k}^{N}{m\choose k}t^{m-k}-{N\choose k}t^{N-k}=0\qquad(0\le k<N).N+1β​m=k∑N​(km​)tm−k−(kN​)tN−k=0(0≤k<N).

With ε(k)=1−t(k)\varepsilon(k)=1-t(k)ε(k)=1−t(k) for k<Nk<Nk<N and ε(N)=1\varepsilon(N)=1ε(N)=1, its conclusion is

PN{V(xN∗)>ε(sN∗)}≤β.P^N\{V(x_N^*)>\varepsilon(s_N^*)\}\le\beta.PN{V(xN∗​)>ε(sN∗​)}≤β.

The terminal value ε(N)=1\varepsilon(N)=1ε(N)=1 is essential because the paper gives examples with sN∗=Ns_N^*=NsN∗​=N and V(xN∗)=1V(x_N^*)=1V(xN∗​)=1.

Significance

Theorem 3 makes the observed support count a usable statistic for assessing the solution's future constraint violation without a dimension bound. Theorem 4 turns it into a certificate at any chosen confidence parameter β\betaβ. The confidence threshold depends on the count seen after the program is solved. These statements do not claim that every generic program satisfies Assumptions 1–2; they say what follows for programs that do.

A formal development must make the statistical objects and the analytic value agree exactly: the solution must come from the feasible set and the fixed tie-break rule, the support count must record changes of solution, and γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ must be the value of the derivative-constrained polynomial problem. The reusable outputs include the generic scenario model, its generalized violation distributions, and the finite moment and dual formulations. The statements are known results of Campi and Garatti; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of those results and their selected intermediate claims.

Difficulty

The observed support count is data-dependent. Conditioning on sN∗=ks_N^*=ksN∗​=k therefore cannot be treated as conditioning on a fixed subset of kkk sample coordinates. Symmetry across possible support subsets must agree with the selected solution under removal of nonsupport constraints. Assumption 2 is what rules out a degenerate change of solution when only support constraints remain. In the generic setting the possible count grows with NNN, so the distributional characterization has one measure FkF_kFk​ for every k≥0k\ge0k≥0 and moment equations for every sample size. The resulting infinite family must still be related to the finite degree-NNN polynomial value in (31). No convexity or finite-dimensional geometry is available to supply a fixed support bound.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the decision set by an arbitrary type SSS, with a measurable structure only to state the paper's implicit measurability convention. Samples are functions Fin N → Δ with zero-based indices and product law Measure.pi. The published generic violation definition is reused. The domain, constraint family, cost, finite lexicographic tie-break, selected solution, support set, and FkF_kFk​ are defined locally. A Nonempty S instance provides an unused fallback value to the total solution selector; Assumption 1 already implies that SSS is nonempty.

The source takes measurability for granted in a footnote. Here the constraint relation is jointly measurable, every solution map is measurable, and each support event is measurable. These pins assign probabilities to the events the paper uses. The FkF_kFk​ are finite measures on R\mathbb RR, so the paper's Stieltjes integrals are represented as integrals over (ε(k),1](\varepsilon(k),1](ε(k),1] or [0,1][0,1][0,1] against those measures. The polynomial class PN\mathcal P_NPN​ means degree at most NNN, matching the N+1N+1N+1 coefficients in (36). The value γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ is a real infimum; a separate sanity proof gives a feasible polynomial and a zero lower bound on all feasible values.

The goal retains Assumptions 1–2 and states the actual tail bound. It does not assume the moment equations or a favorable value of γ∗\gamma^*γ∗, and no support count is fixed in advance. Contributions toward the distributional decomposition, the moment equations, the finite weak-duality inequality, the polynomial identity, and the explicit-root theorem are within scope.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2018. DOI: 10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9. The mission uses the authors' accepted manuscript, especially Sections 6–7 and Theorems 3–4.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments V: Stackelberg Matroid Pricing Is an Assortment Problem Under a Regular Choice ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

In Stackelberg network pricing a leader sets prices on some resources, and a follower then buys the cheapest structure available to them, paying the leader for the priced resources they use. The Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree problem, introduced by Cardinal, Demaine, Fiorini, Joret, Langerman, Newman and Weimann (Algorithmica 2011), is the version in which the follower buys a minimum spanning tree. The best known approximation factors for it are those of uniform pricing, which gives every priced edge the same price (Berbeglia–Joret, p. 21).

Independently, revenue management studies assortment optimisation: a seller chooses which products to offer, and customers choose among the offered products according to a discrete choice model. Berbeglia and Joret (arXiv:1606.01371, Algorithmica 2020) analyse the revenue-ordered heuristic (offer every product whose revenue is at least some threshold) under any regular choice model, and prove tight approximation bounds.

§4.6 of that paper shows that the two problems are the same problem: a Stackelberg Matroid pricing instance is an assortment problem under a regular choice model, and uniform pricing is the revenue-ordered heuristic on that model. The bounds of Cardinal et al. on uniform pricing thus become special cases of the general bounds on revenue-ordered assortments. This mission formalizes that correspondence (Theorem 4.16).

Setting

Choice model. Let C\mathcal CC be a finite set of products. A system of choice probabilities assigns to each offered set S⊆CS\subseteq\mathcal CS⊆C and product xxx a probability P(x,S)\mathcal P(x,S)P(x,S), with no-purchase probability P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S). It is regular if (i) all probabilities are nonnegative, (ii) P(x,S)=0\mathcal P(x,S)=0P(x,S)=0 for x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S, (iii) ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤1\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le1∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤1, and (iv) P(x,S)≥P(x,S′)\mathcal P(x,S)\ge\mathcal P(x,S')P(x,S)≥P(x,S′) whenever S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′ and x∈S∪{0}x\in S\cup\{0\}x∈S∪{0}. With revenues r:C→R>0r:\mathcal C\to\mathbb R_{>0}r:C→R>0​, rev(S)=∑x∈SP(x,S)r(x)\mathrm{rev}(S)=\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)r(x)rev(S)=∑x∈S​P(x,S)r(x) and OPT=max⁡Srev(S)\mathrm{OPT}=\max_S\mathrm{rev}(S)OPT=maxS​rev(S). The revenue-ordered assortment generated by yyy is {y′∈C:r(y′)≥r(y)}\{y'\in\mathcal C:r(y')\ge r(y)\}{y′∈C:r(y′)≥r(y)}.

Greedy algorithm. Given a family of independent sets, a linear ordering LLL and a set FFF, greedy(F,L)\mathrm{greedy}(F,L)greedy(F,L) scans FFF in the order induced by LLL, starting from ∅\emptyset∅, and adds each element that keeps the current set independent.

Stackelberg Matroid problem. An instance is a matroid M=(E,X)M=(E,\mathcal X)M=(E,X), a bipartition E=R⊔BE=R\sqcup BE=R⊔B into red and blue elements, and red costs c:R→R>0c:R\to\mathbb R_{>0}c:R→R>0​; some base of MMM lies inside RRR. The leader chooses prices p:B→R>0p:B\to\mathbb R_{>0}p:B→R>0​. The customer buys a minimum-weight base by running greedy on R∪BR\cup BR∪B with an ordering L∗L^*L∗ that is non-decreasing in weight (ccc on RRR, ppp on BBB) and puts blue elements first on ties. The leader earns revStack(p,L∗)=∑e∈B∩greedyM(R∪B,L∗)p(e)\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{Stack}}(p,L^*)=\sum_{e\in B\cap\mathrm{greedy}_M(R\cup B,L^*)}p(e)revStack​(p,L∗)=∑e∈B∩greedyM​(R∪B,L∗)​p(e).

The assortment instance. Let c1<⋯<ckc_1<\dots<c_kc1​<⋯<ck​ be the distinct red costs. Products are C=B×{c1,…,ck}\mathcal C=B\times\{c_1,\dots,c_k\}C=B×{c1​,…,ck​} with r((e,q))=∣B∣ qr((e,q))=|B|\,qr((e,q))=∣B∣q. The auxiliary matroid M′M'M′ on R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C declares XXX independent when it holds at most one pair (e,q)(e,q)(e,q) per blue eee and (R∩X)∪{e:(e,q)∈X}(R\cap X)\cup\{e:(e,q)\in X\}(R∩X)∪{e:(e,q)∈X} is independent in MMM. With an ordering LLL of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C that is non-decreasing in cost and puts products before red elements on ties, P((e,q),S)=1/∣B∣\mathcal P((e,q),S)=1/|B|P((e,q),S)=1/∣B∣ if (e,q)∈greedyM′(R∪S,L)(e,q)\in\mathrm{greedy}_{M'}(R\cup S,L)(e,q)∈greedyM′​(R∪S,L) and 000 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.16 (p. 24)

For the instance above, with B≠∅B\ne\emptysetB=∅ and every admissible LLL:

P is regular,r>0,max⁡S⊆Crev(S)=max⁡p>0, L∗revStack(p,L∗),\mathcal P\ \text{is regular},\quad r>0,\qquad \max_{S\subseteq\mathcal C}\mathrm{rev}(S)=\max_{p>0,\ L^*}\mathrm{rev}_{\mathrm{Stack}}(p,L^*),P is regular,r>0,S⊆Cmax​rev(S)=p>0, L∗max​revStack​(p,L∗),

and uniform pricing corresponds to revenue-ordered assortments: for each cic_ici​ some revenue-ordered assortment earns the revenue of the uniform price cic_ici​, and every revenue-ordered assortment earns the revenue of some uniform price cic_ici​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.14 (p. 23): for F⊆F′F\subseteq F'F⊆F′, ∣greedyM(F′,L)∣≥∣greedyM(F,L)∣|\mathrm{greedy}_M(F',L)|\ge|\mathrm{greedy}_M(F,L)|∣greedyM​(F′,L)∣≥∣greedyM​(F,L)∣ and F∩greedyM(F′,L)⊆greedyM(F,L)F\cap\mathrm{greedy}_M(F',L)\subseteq\mathrm{greedy}_M(F,L)F∩greedyM​(F′,L)⊆greedyM​(F,L).
  2. Property (14) (p. 31): orderings agreeing on a block partition make greedy pick the same number of elements per block.
  3. Lemma 4.15 (p. 23): the Stackelberg revenue does not depend on the compatible ordering.
  4. M′M'M′ is a matroid (p. 32).
  5. Regularity of P\mathcal PP (pp. 32–33).
  6. rev(S)\mathrm{rev}(S)rev(S) equals the Stackelberg revenue of pS(e)=min⁡{q:(e,q)∈S}p_S(e)=\min\{q:(e,q)\in S\}pS​(e)=min{q:(e,q)∈S} (pp. 33–34).
  7. Rounding prices up to the cost levels does not decrease revenue (p. 34).
  8. For prices in {c1,…,ck}∪{+∞}\{c_1,\dots,c_k\}\cup\{+\infty\}{c1​,…,ck​}∪{+∞}, rev(Sp)\mathrm{rev}(S_p)rev(Sp​) equals the Stackelberg revenue of ppp (pp. 34–35).

Significance

Theorem 4.16 transfers every guarantee for revenue-ordered assortments under regular models to uniform pricing in Stackelberg Matroid pricing. Specialising Theorems 3.1, 3.2 and 3.3 of the paper through it gives exactly the three bounds on uniform pricing proved by Cardinal et al. for Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree (Theorem 3 of their paper), which those authors showed to be tight (p. 24). It also places uniform pricing inside a general picture: it is a threshold policy for a regular choice model whose purchase probabilities come from a matroid greedy algorithm, and the paper notes that the argument extends to polymatroids.

The result is proved in the paper, with two steps left to the reader (M′M'M′ is a matroid) or justified briefly (rounding prices). No machine-checked proof exists. A formalization also produces a reusable greedy algorithm on finite matroids with its monotonicity properties (Lemma 4.14, (14)), which Mathlib at the pinned revision does not have.

Difficulty

The obvious argument identifies the customer's run of greedy on (M,R∪B)(M,R\cup B)(M,R∪B) with the run of greedy on (M′,R∪S)(M',R\cup S)(M′,R∪S) step by step. That identification fails as stated: the choice probabilities are defined with one fixed ordering LLL of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C, while the customer's ordering L∗L^*L∗ is any ordering compatible with the prices, and ties among blue elements of equal price, or between a product and a red element of equal cost, may be broken differently. Equality of revenues therefore needs the tie-independence property (14) applied to M′M'M′ as well as to MMM, which in turn needs M′M'M′ to be a matroid. A second gap is axiom (iv) for the no-purchase option: it requires that offering more products never decreases the number of products greedy selects, which is Lemma 4.14 (i)–(ii) for M′M'M′ combined, not a pointwise statement. Finally, the paper's "+∞+\infty+∞" price must be handled with the red base: without a base inside RRR, a blue element priced above all costs can still be bought and the optimum is unbounded.

Formalization scope

  • Elements and orderings. The matroid is a Mathlib Matroid α; RRR, BBB are Finset α with R∪BR\cup BR∪B equal to the ground set; costs and prices are functions α → ℝ, used only on RRR and BBB. A linear ordering is a duplicate-free List covering the set; greedy on FFF scans the whole list and skips elements outside FFF, so FFF is never re-sorted.
  • Greedy is defined for an arbitrary independence predicate on finite sets, so that it applies to M′M'M′ before M′M'M′ is shown to be a matroid.
  • Customer model. Compatibility (15a)–(15b), including blue priority on ties, is part of the definition of an admissible customer ordering. The red base is a field of every instance.
  • Assortment instance. Elements of R∪CR\cup\mathcal CR∪C live in α ⊕ (α × ℝ). The paper's conditions (1)–(2) for M′M'M′ contain two typos (a missing "∈X\in X∈X" and X\mathcal XX for XXX); the intended conditions are formalized. The price +∞+\infty+∞ is the real number 1+∑f∈Rc(f)1+\sum_{f\in R}c(f)1+∑f∈R​c(f), strictly above every red cost.
  • Goal shape. The theorem is stated for the explicit instance of the proof, for every admissible LLL. The optimum of the Stackelberg side is a maximum (IsGreatest) over positive real prices and all compatible customer orderings. Cost levels are quantified as elements of the set of red costs rather than by index.
  • Ruled out. An existential statement ("some regular instance has the same optimum") is met by a single product with revenue OPTStack\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{Stack}}OPTStack​ and is not this theorem; so is a customer model without tie-breaking, a formalization without the red base, or Lemma 4.14 only for F=F′F=F'F=F′.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemma 4.14 and (14) for Mathlib matroids (reusable beyond this mission), the matroid property of parallel extensions such as M′M'M′, and the three revenue identities.

Selected references

  • G. Berbeglia and G. Joret, Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments, arXiv:1606.01371v3, 2019 (Algorithmica, 2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.01371
  • J. Cardinal, E. D. Demaine, S. Fiorini, G. Joret, S. Langerman, I. Newman and O. Weimann, The Stackelberg Minimum Spanning Tree Game, Algorithmica 59(2):129–144, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00453-009-9299-y
  • A. Schrijver, Combinatorial Optimization: Polyhedra and Efficiency, Vol. B, Algorithms and Combinatorics 24, Springer, 2003 (matroids and the greedy algorithm). https://link.springer.com/book/9783540443896
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Numerically Stable Dual Method for Solving Strictly Convex Quadratic Programs: The Dual Algorithm Solves the QP or Detects Its Infeasibility in Finitely Many StepsResearch Paper

Motivation

Strictly convex quadratic programs — minimize a positive definite quadratic subject to linear inequalities — are the subproblems solved at every iteration of successive quadratic programming (SQP) methods for nonlinear optimization, and they arise directly in least-squares estimation with constraints, portfolio selection and model predictive control. In SQP the unconstrained minimizer of the quadratic model is available at no cost, while a feasible point is not.

D. Goldfarb and A. Idnani (Math. Programming 27 (1983) 1–33) proposed a dual active-set method that exploits this asymmetry. It starts at the unconstrained minimizer, which is optimal for the problem with all constraints removed, and adds violated constraints one at a time while keeping the current point optimal for the subproblem defined by the current active set. No phase 1 is needed. The method, usually called the Goldfarb–Idnani algorithm, is the basis of widely used solvers (for example the quadprog package in R and QuadProg++), and the paper proves that it terminates finitely with a correct answer.

Earlier dual methods for quadratic programming include the modified-simplex methods of Lemke (Management Science 8 (1962) 442–453) and of Van de Panne and Whinston (1964), which the paper compares with its own in Section 7.

Setting

Fix n,m∈Nn, m \in \mathbb Nn,m∈N, a vector a∈Rna \in \mathbb R^na∈Rn, a symmetric positive definite n×nn\times nn×n matrix GGG, an n×mn\times mn×m matrix CCC with columns n1,…,nmn_1,\dots,n_mn1​,…,nm​, and b∈Rmb \in \mathbb R^mb∈Rm. The quadratic program (1.1) is

min⁡x f(x)=aTx+12xTGxsubject tosi(x)=niTx−bi≥0,i∈K={1,…,m}.\min_x\ f(x) = a^{\mathsf T}x + \tfrac12 x^{\mathsf T}Gx \quad\text{subject to}\quad s_i(x) = n_i^{\mathsf T}x - b_i \ge 0,\quad i \in K = \{1,\dots,m\}.xmin​ f(x)=aTx+21​xTGxsubject tosi​(x)=niT​x−bi​≥0,i∈K={1,…,m}.

The gradient is g(x)=Gx+ag(x) = Gx + ag(x)=Gx+a. For J⊆KJ \subseteq KJ⊆K, the subproblem P(J)P(J)P(J) keeps only the constraints indexed by JJJ; P(∅)P(\emptyset)P(∅) is solved by x0=−G−1ax^0 = -G^{-1}ax0=−G−1a. A set A⊆KA \subseteq KA⊆K is linearly independent if the normals nin_ini​, i∈Ai\in Ai∈A, are.

For an independent AAA, let NNN be the matrix with columns nin_ini​, i∈Ai\in Ai∈A, and define

N∗=(NTG−1N)−1NTG−1,H=G−1−G−1N(NTG−1N)−1NTG−1.N^* = (N^{\mathsf T}G^{-1}N)^{-1}N^{\mathsf T}G^{-1},\qquad H = G^{-1} - G^{-1}N(N^{\mathsf T}G^{-1}N)^{-1}N^{\mathsf T}G^{-1}.N∗=(NTG−1N)−1NTG−1,H=G−1−G−1N(NTG−1N)−1NTG−1.

The multipliers are u(x)=N∗g(x)u(x) = N^*g(x)u(x)=N∗g(x); for a constraint p∉Ap \notin Ap∈/A with normal n+=npn^+ = n_pn+=np​ the infeasibility multipliers are r=N∗n+r = N^*n^+r=N∗n+; a superscript +++ denotes the same objects for A+=A∪{p}A^+ = A\cup\{p\}A+=A∪{p}.

An S-pair (x,A)(x, A)(x,A) is an independent active set AAA with si(x)=0s_i(x) = 0si​(x)=0 for i∈Ai\in Ai∈A and xxx optimal for P(A)P(A)P(A). A V-triple (x,A,p)(x, A, p)(x,A,p) has p∉Ap\notin Ap∈/A, A+A^+A+ independent, sp(x)<0s_p(x) < 0sp​(x)<0, si(x)=0s_i(x) = 0si​(x)=0 for i∈Ai \in Ai∈A, H+g(x)=0H^+g(x) = 0H+g(x)=0 and u+(x)=(N+)∗g(x)≥0u^+(x) = (N^+)^*g(x) \ge 0u+(x)=(N+)∗g(x)≥0.

The dual algorithm starts from (x0,∅)(x^0, \emptyset)(x0,∅). In Step 1 it stops if xxx is feasible; otherwise it picks any violated constraint ppp. In Step 2 it moves along the primal direction z=Hn+z = Hn^+z=Hn+ and the dual direction (−r;1)(-r; 1)(−r;1) with step t=min⁡{t1,t2}t = \min\{t_1, t_2\}t=min{t1​,t2​}, where t1t_1t1​ is the largest step that keeps the multipliers nonnegative and t2=−sp(x)/zTn+t_2 = -s_p(x)/z^{\mathsf T}n^+t2​=−sp​(x)/zTn+ makes constraint ppp active. If both are infinite it reports infeasibility. A full step (t=t2t = t_2t=t2​) adds ppp and returns to Step 1. A partial step (t=t1<t2t = t_1 < t_2t=t1​<t2​), or a dual step (z=0z = 0z=0), drops a constraint kkk attaining t1t_1t1​ and repeats Step 2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 11)

For every choice of the violated constraint ppp and of the dropped constraint kkk:

no run from (x0,∅) is infinite, and every run that cannot continue ends in {STOP at an optimal x of (1.1), orSTOP with {x:CTx≥b}=∅.\text{no run from } (x^0,\emptyset) \text{ is infinite, and every run that cannot continue ends in } \begin{cases}\text{STOP at an optimal } x \text{ of (1.1)}, \text{ or}\\ \text{STOP with } \{x : C^{\mathsf T}x \ge b\} = \emptyset.\end{cases}no run from (x0,∅) is infinite, and every run that cannot continue ends in {STOP at an optimal x of (1.1), orSTOP with {x:CTx≥b}=∅.​

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Properties (2.6)–(2.9) (p. 5): Hw=0  ⟺  w∈range⁡NHw = 0 \iff w \in \operatorname{range} NHw=0⟺w∈rangeN; H⪰0H \succeq 0H⪰0; HGH=HHGH = HHGH=H; N∗GH=0N^*GH = 0N∗GH=0.
  2. Optimality conditions (2.3)–(2.4) (p. 5): on the manifold of AAA, xxx solves P(A)P(A)P(A) iff N∗g(x)≥0N^*g(x) \ge 0N∗g(x)≥0 and Hg(x)=0Hg(x) = 0Hg(x)=0.
  3. Lemma 1 (p. 8): along xˉ=x+tHn+\bar x = x + tHn^+xˉ=x+tHn+ from a V-triple, H+g(xˉ)=0H^+g(\bar x) = 0H+g(xˉ)=0, the constraints of AAA stay active, u+(xˉ)=u+(x)+t(−r;1)u^+(\bar x) = u^+(x) + t(-r;1)u+(xˉ)=u+(x)+t(−r;1) and sp(xˉ)=sp(x)+t zTn+s_p(\bar x) = s_p(x) + t\,z^{\mathsf T}n^+sp​(xˉ)=sp​(x)+tzTn+.
  4. Theorem 1 (pp. 8–9): the step t=min⁡{t1,t2}t = \min\{t_1,t_2\}t=min{t1​,t2​} increases sps_psp​ and fff; a partial step yields a V-triple, a full step an S-pair.
  5. Theorem 2 (p. 10): if np=Nrn_p = Nrnp​=Nr and sp(x)<0s_p(x) < 0sp​(x)<0 at an S-pair, then r≤0r \le 0r≤0 means P(A∪{p})P(A\cup\{p\})P(A∪{p}) is infeasible; otherwise dropping a minimizing kkk gives a V-triple.
  6. One round of Step 2 (p. 11): from an S-pair and a violated ppp, at most ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ partial or dual steps and one final step end either in infeasibility of (1.1) or in a new S-pair (xˉ,Aˉ∪{p})(\bar x, \bar A \cup\{p\})(xˉ,Aˉ∪{p}) with Aˉ⊆A\bar A\subseteq AAˉ⊆A and f(xˉ)>f(x)f(\bar x) > f(x)f(xˉ)>f(x).

Significance

Theorem 3 is the correctness certificate of the Goldfarb–Idnani method: whatever rule an implementation uses to choose the entering and leaving constraints, it cannot cycle and its answer is right. In particular the infeasibility verdict is a proof that (1.1) has no feasible point, which matters in SQP where infeasible subproblems trigger a different branch of the outer method. The intermediate results (the operator identities, Lemma 1, Theorems 1–2) are the standard analysis of dual active-set methods for quadratic programming.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A formal development produces verified projector identities for N∗N^*N∗ and HHH, a verified KKT characterization for equality-active subproblems, and a verified finite-termination proof for a nondeterministic algorithm with an explicit step relation. The platform already has a proved KKT sufficiency theorem for general convex programs (ConvexOptimization.kkt_sufficient_for_convex), stated over EuclideanSpace with general convex functions and gradient fields; it can serve as background for the sufficiency half of milestone 2, but it is not stated in this mission's matrix objects.

Difficulty

The obvious termination argument is that fff increases strictly at every iteration and there are finitely many active sets. It fails as stated: partial steps may leave xxx unchanged (the dual steps of Step 2(c)(ii)), so fff is only nondecreasing between consecutive states. A termination proof therefore needs a measure that also decreases along steps that do not move xxx. Any such argument relies on invariants (independence of A+A^+A+, nonnegativity of the multipliers, sp<0s_p < 0sp​<0 along partial steps) that hold only on reachable states, and the operators N∗N^*N∗ and HHH are meaningful only while those invariants hold. Correctness of the infeasibility verdict requires the dependent case (Theorem 2), not only Theorem 1.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, GGG is Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ with G.PosDef, CCC is Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ, and active sets are Finset (Fin m). Multiplier vectors are indexed by constraint index (Fin m → ℝ, zero off the active set), not by position in AAA. Lean's matrix inverse returns 000 for singular matrices, so every statement about N∗N^*N∗ and HHH assumes G≻0G \succ 0G≻0 and an independent active set (directly, or through an S-pair or V-triple).

The algorithm is the inductive relation Step on states step1 x A u, step2 x A p u⁺, stopOptimal x, stopInfeasible, with one transition per admissible choice of ppp and kkk. Infinite step lengths are separate transitions; a tie t1=t2t_1 = t_2t1​=t2​ takes the full step, as the paper tests t=t2t = t_2t=t2​ first. The running value of fff and the factorizations of Section 4 are not part of the state.

Explicit readings of the paper's words:

  • "solves the QPP or indicates infeasibility in a finite number of steps" is: no infinite sequence of Step transitions from the Step-0 state, and every reachable state without a successor is a STOP whose verdict is correct (optimal for (1.1), or (1.1) infeasible);
  • "S-pair" is: AAA independent and active at xxx, with xxx optimal for P(A)P(A)P(A) (the reading every use in the paper needs);
  • in Theorem 1 the partial-step clause carries t<t2t < t_2t<t2​ (as in its proof), and the multiplier printed uj+1+u^+_{j+1}uj+1+​ in (3.16) is uq+1+u^+_{q+1}uq+1+​, the entry belonging to ppp;
  • "an S-pair can never reoccur" is expressed as the strict increase f(xˉ)>f(x)f(\bar x) > f(x)f(xˉ)>f(x) in milestone 6.

Property (2.10), printed HH+=H+HH^+ = H^+HH+=H+, is false unless G=IG = IG=I and is not formalized. Equality constraints (1.2), Section 4 (numerically stable implementation), Sections 5–6 (computations), Section 7 (comparisons) and the Appendix example are out of scope.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal quantifies over every run of the relation (not one selection rule, not "some run terminates"), the infeasibility verdict is about (1.1) itself, and the algorithm is a relation that always has a successor until a STOP, so correctness cannot hold because a run gets stuck.

Needed infrastructure: Schur-complement and projector identities for N∗N^*N∗ and HHH; first-order optimality for convex quadratics on affine subspaces with inequality multipliers; well-foundedness arguments for a nondeterministic relation. The operator identities and the KKT characterization are reusable for other active-set and SQP analyses. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of reusable lemmas about N∗N^*N∗ and HHH, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Goldfarb and A. Idnani, A numerically stable dual method for solving strictly convex quadratic programs, Mathematical Programming 27 (1983) 1–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02591962
  • C. E. Lemke, A method of solution for quadratic programs, Management Science 8 (1962) 442–453. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.8.4.442
  • J. Nocedal and S. J. Wright, Numerical Optimization, 2nd ed., Springer, 2006, Chapter 16. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-40065-5
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach 2: Empirical Likelihood Intervals for the Optimal Value inf_x E[ℓ(x;ξ)] Have Exact Coverage P(χ²₁ ≤ ρ)Research Paper

Why coverage of an optimal value matters

Many stochastic optimization problems choose a decision by minimizing an expected loss. The optimum depends on an unknown distribution, so a data-based optimum alone gives no measure of uncertainty about the best achievable expected loss. This mission concerns a confidence set for that optimal value, rather than a confidence set for the decision itself. The result of Duchi, Glynn, and Namkoong shows that a broad class of divergence neighborhoods of the empirical distribution yields a calibrated limit for this set. The same construction covers nonsmooth losses and constrained decisions when the regularity assumptions below hold.

The paper develops generalized empirical likelihood for smooth functionals of a distribution and then applies it to optimization. Its Theorem 3 states the exact asymptotic coverage result for the optimal value; Appendix C identifies the functional derivative, while Appendix B gives the uniform linearization and expansion on which calibration rests. The statistical result is proved in the paper. The mission asks for a machine-checked development of its statements and proof under an explicit nondegeneracy condition required by the paper's general coverage theorem.

Decisions, losses, and divergence neighborhoods

Let X⊆Rd\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd be a nonempty compact decision set. An observation ξ\xiξ has population law P0P_0P0​, and ℓ(x;ξ)∈R\ell(x;\xi)\in\mathbb Rℓ(x;ξ)∈R is the loss at decision xxx. The quantity of interest is the optimal-value functional

Topt(P)=inf⁡x∈XEP[ℓ(x;ξ)].T_{\rm opt}(P)=\inf_{x\in\mathcal X}\mathbb E_P[\ell(x;\xi)].Topt​(P)=x∈Xinf​EP​[ℓ(x;ξ)].

The observations ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​ are independent and identically distributed with law P0P_0P0​. Write P^n\widehat P_nPn​ for their empirical distribution. A candidate distribution supported on the indexed observations is represented by nonnegative weights pip_ipi​ with ∑ipi=1\sum_i p_i=1∑i​pi​=1. Indexed weights also cover samples with repeated observations. For a convex divergence generator fff normalized by f(1)=f′(1)=0f(1)=f'(1)=0f(1)=f′(1)=0 and f′′(1)=2f''(1)=2f′′(1)=2, its divergence from the empirical law is Df(p∥P^n)=n−1∑if(npi)D_f(p\|\widehat P_n)=n^{-1}\sum_i f(np_i)Df​(p∥Pn​)=n−1∑i​f(npi​). Assumption A further requires fff to be three times continuously differentiable near 111; it permits f(0)=+∞f(0)=+\inftyf(0)=+∞.

At radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n, the divergence ball consists of the weights with ∑if(npi)≤ρ\sum_i f(np_i)\le\rho∑i​f(npi​)≤ρ. The confidence set is its image under ToptT_{\rm opt}Topt​:

Cn,ρ={Topt(p):Df(p∥P^n)≤ρ/n}.C_{n,\rho}=\{T_{\rm opt}(p):D_f(p\|\widehat P_n)\le\rho/n\}.Cn,ρ​={Topt​(p):Df​(p∥Pn​)≤ρ/n}.

Assumption B makes X\mathcal XX compact and requires ℓ(⋅;ξ)\ell(\cdot;\xi)ℓ(⋅;ξ) to be Lipschitz on it with a measurable random coefficient M(ξ)M(\xi)M(ξ). The theorem adds finite second moments for MMM and for the loss at one feasible decision. These conditions control losses at every feasible decision. They also make the population and weighted empirical infima finite on the cases used in the limit.

Formalization targets

The goal is the exact asymptotic coverage of the population optimal value, with x⋆x^\starx⋆ the unique optimizer and Var⁡P0(ℓ(x⋆;ξ))>0\operatorname{Var}_{P_0}(\ell(x^\star;\xi))>0VarP0​​(ℓ(x⋆;ξ))>0:

P∗ ⁣(Topt(P0)∈Cn,ρ)⟶P(χ12≤ρ),ρ≥0.P^*\!\left(T_{\rm opt}(P_0)\in C_{n,\rho}\right)\longrightarrow P(\chi_1^2\le\rho),\qquad \rho\ge0.P∗(Topt​(P0​)∈Cn,ρ​)⟶P(χ12​≤ρ),ρ≥0.

Here P∗P^*P∗ denotes outer probability, and χ12\chi_1^2χ12​ is the square of a standard normal variable. The milestone statements follow the paper's path to this theorem. Lemma 17 gives the directional derivative of an optimal-value functional. Lemma 13 bounds feasible empirical weights relative to uniform weights. Lemma 16 makes the nonlinear remainder uniformly negligible on the divergence ball. The display after (37) then gives a first-order expansion of the upper endpoint of Cn,ρC_{n,\rho}Cn,ρ​; the next display gives its one-sided Gaussian coverage limit. The goal concerns membership in the image set Cn,ρC_{n,\rho}Cn,ρ​, including both sides of that interval.

What the result provides

The limit specifies a radius through a one degree of freedom chi square quantile. It applies to the value of a constrained stochastic optimization problem without requiring the optimizer or the loss to be differentiable. The positive variance condition ensures that the influence function supplies a genuine Gaussian scale. Without such a condition, a deterministic optimal loss can make coverage identically one, so the stated chi square limit would fail. The general theorem in the paper explicitly requires positive influence variance; this mission makes the condition visible in the specialized optimal-value statement.

A complete formalization would connect finite-sample divergence geometry to an asymptotic confidence claim about an optimization functional. The empirical mean and variance definitions, divergence ball, and normalized generator already exist as reusable declarations. This mission adds the optimal-value functional, its influence function, the nonlinear remainder, and the statistical limits. Those definitions can also support later confidence statements for other stochastic optimization models. The result is proved in the source paper; the Lean statements here are open targets awaiting proofs.

The mathematical obstacle

Pointwise control of each loss ℓ(x;ξ)\ell(x;\xi)ℓ(x;ξ) is insufficient for the optimal value: the decision minimizing an empirical weighted objective can move with the weights. A pointwise mean expansion therefore does not by itself control the infimum over xxx. The required limit combines uniform control over the loss class with sensitivity of the infimum functional near its population minimizer. The uniform remainder in Lemma 16 is stronger than a statement for the ordinary empirical distribution because it covers every distribution in the shrinking divergence ball. The final event is membership in the image of that ball; bounds on its upper endpoint alone do not establish two-sided coverage.

Formalization scope

Lean represents decisions by EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and assumes a nonempty compact feasible set. Assumption B uses its Euclidean norm. The paper allows any norm in finite dimension; norm equivalence permits this choice after rescaling the Lipschitz coefficient. The population law is the pushforward of the first measurable observation from a probability space. Samples are indexed from zero, so the first nnn observations are indices 0,…,n−10,\ldots,n-10,…,n−1. Independence and identical distribution are explicit hypotheses. Loss measurability is explicit so the population integrals have their intended values. Square integrability and compact Lipschitz control keep the real infima meaningful.

The generator takes values in EReal so a divergence infinite at zero is representable. The ball uses the published probability uncertainty set with radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n and includes nonnegativity and unit mass. Its weights represent distributions absolutely continuous with respect to the empirical law. With tied observations, equal splitting across copies preserves the induced distribution and does not increase a convex divergence. The upper endpoint is sup⁡pinf⁡x\sup_p\inf_xsupp​infx​; the different minimax expression inf⁡xsup⁡p\inf_x\sup_pinfx​supp​ is not substituted. The chi square target uses the standard Gaussian measure of {z:z2≤ρ}\{z:z^2\le\rho\}{z:z2≤ρ}.

Mathlib measures are outer measures on arbitrary sets, so the probability of a possibly nonmeasurable membership or supremum event is the paper's outer probability. The Lemma 17 milestone expresses a signed measure through its action H(x)H(x)H(x) on the losses, as Appendix C.2 does, and uses positive directional steps. Real suprema and infima are used only where the hypotheses provide nonempty bounded values. The variance hypothesis rules out the trivial deterministic-loss counterexample. Useful contributions include the compactness and continuity facts needed for those extrema, the action-level derivative, empirical process limits, and the final two-sided event argument.

Selected references

  • John C. Duchi, Peter W. Glynn, and Hongseok Namkoong, Statistics of Robust Optimization: A Generalized Empirical Likelihood Approach, arXiv:1610.03425v3, 2018; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 46(3), 2021. arXiv preprint
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Linear OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management 1: Infrequent Re-solving with Thresholding Has Regret O(1), Uniformly in the Horizon T and the Capacities CResearch Paper

Motivation

Network revenue management decides, in real time, which customer requests to accept when every request consumes a bundle of scarce, perishable resources: seats on several flight legs of an itinerary, room-nights of a multi-night hotel stay, bandwidth on several links. The exact dynamic program is intractable for realistic networks, so practice and theory rely on heuristics built from a deterministic linear program (DLP) that replaces random demand by its mean. The question is how much revenue such heuristics lose.

The classical answer (Gallego and van Ryzin 1994, 1997; Talluri and van Ryzin 1998) is that solving the DLP once and following its solution loses O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) over a horizon of length TTT. Re-solving the DLP as capacity is consumed was long believed to help, and Jasin and Kumar (2012) proved that re-solving in every period has bounded loss if the DLP solution is nondegenerate. Bumpensanti and Wang (arXiv:1802.06192v3) showed that the nondegeneracy condition matters: frequent re-solving can lose Ω(T)\Omega(\sqrt T)Ω(T​) on degenerate instances. They then proposed a policy, Infrequent Re-solving with Thresholding (IRT), whose loss is bounded by a constant independent of the horizon and of the capacities, with no nondegeneracy assumption. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

There are nnn customer classes j∈[n]j \in [n]j∈[n] and mmm resources l∈[m]l \in [m]l∈[m]. Class-jjj customers arrive as independent Poisson processes of rate λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0 on [0,T][0, T][0,T]. Accepting a class-jjj customer earns rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0 and consumes alj≥0a_{lj} \ge 0alj​≥0 units of resource lll; A=(alj)A = (a_{lj})A=(alj​) is the bill-of-materials matrix with columns AjA_jAj​, and C∈R≥0mC \in \mathbb R^m_{\ge 0}C∈R≥0m​ is the initial capacity. A customer can be accepted only if Aj≤C′A_j \le C'Aj​≤C′ componentwise, C′C'C′ being the remaining capacity; leftover capacity is worthless at TTT.

The DLP with right-hand side bbb is

max⁡x{∑jrjxj ∣ ∑jAjxj≤b, 0≤xj≤λj},\max_x \Big\{ \sum_j r_j x_j \ \Big|\ \sum_j A_j x_j \le b,\ 0 \le x_j \le \lambda_j \Big\},xmax​{j∑​rj​xj​ ​ j∑​Aj​xj​≤b, 0≤xj​≤λj​},

and vDLP(T,C)v^{\mathrm{DLP}}(T, C)vDLP(T,C) is TTT times its value at b=C/Tb = C/Tb=C/T. The hindsight optimum is vHO(T,C)=E[VHO]v^{\mathrm{HO}}(T, C) = \mathbb E[V^{\mathrm{HO}}]vHO(T,C)=E[VHO], where VHOV^{\mathrm{HO}}VHO is the value of the same LP with capacity CCC and the realized demands Λj(T)∼Poisson(λjT)\Lambda_j(T) \sim \mathrm{Poisson}(\lambda_j T)Λj​(T)∼Poisson(λj​T) as upper bounds. It bounds the expected revenue of every non-anticipating policy, and the regret of a policy π\piπ is vHO−vπv^{\mathrm{HO}} - v^\pivHO−vπ.

A probabilistic allocation on a window accepts each class-jjj arrival with a fixed probability pjp_jpj​ when capacity allows. The IRT policy uses τu=T(5/6)u\tau_u = T^{(5/6)^u}τu​=T(5/6)u and re-solving times tu∗=T−τut^*_u = T - \tau_utu∗​=T−τu​ for u=0,…,Ku = 0, \dots, Ku=0,…,K, where K=⌈log⁡log⁡T/log⁡(6/5)⌉K = \lceil \log\log T / \log(6/5)\rceilK=⌈loglogT/log(6/5)⌉. At tu∗t^*_utu∗​ it solves the DLP with right-hand side C(tu∗)/τuC(t^*_u)/\tau_uC(tu∗​)/τu​ (remaining capacity over remaining time), obtaining xux^uxu. In the epochs u<Ku < Ku<K it accepts class jjj with probability 000 if xju<λjτu−1/4x^u_j < \lambda_j\tau_u^{-1/4}xju​<λj​τu−1/4​, else 111 if xju>λj(1−τu−1/4)x^u_j > \lambda_j(1 - \tau_u^{-1/4})xju​>λj​(1−τu−1/4​), else xju/λjx^u_j/\lambda_jxju​/λj​; in the last epoch [tK∗,T][t^*_K, T][tK∗​,T] it uses xjK/λjx^K_j/\lambda_jxjK​/λj​. The family IRTK′\mathrm{IRT}^{K'}IRTK′ re-solves K′K'K′ times on the same schedule; IRT0\mathrm{IRT}^0IRT0 is static probabilistic allocation (SPA), and HOK′\mathrm{HO}^{K'}HOK′ follows IRTK′\mathrm{IRT}^{K'}IRTK′ until tK′∗t^*_{K'}tK′∗​ and then earns the hindsight optimum of what remains.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 16)

There is a constant M=M(λ,r,A)M = M(\lambda, r, A)M=M(λ,r,A) such that for every horizon T∈{1,2,… }T \in \{1, 2, \dots\}T∈{1,2,…} and every capacity vector C≥0C \ge 0C≥0,

vHO(T,C)−vIRT(T,C)≤M.v^{\mathrm{HO}}(T, C) - v^{\mathrm{IRT}}(T, C) \le M .vHO(T,C)−vIRT(T,C)≤M.

The constant is not fixed; the content is its independence of TTT, of CCC, and of the optimal LP solution chosen at each re-solve.

Milestones

  • vHO≤vDLPv^{\mathrm{HO}} \le v^{\mathrm{DLP}}vHO≤vDLP (Sec. 2.2.2, p. 9).
  • Lemma 4 (p. 37): P(∣X−μ∣≥x)≤2e−x2/(3μ)\mathbb P(|X - \mu| \ge x) \le 2e^{-x^2/(3\mu)}P(∣X−μ∣≥x)≤2e−x2/(3μ) for X∼Poisson(μ)X \sim \mathrm{Poisson}(\mu)X∼Poisson(μ), 0<x≤μ0 < x \le \mu0<x≤μ.
  • Proposition 5 (p. 27): vDLP−vSPA≤MTv^{\mathrm{DLP}} - v^{\mathrm{SPA}} \le M\sqrt TvDLP−vSPA≤MT​, uniformly in CCC.
  • Proposition 1 (p. 16): with one re-solve at T−T5/6T - T^{5/6}T−T5/6,
vHO−vHO1≤MTe−κT1/6,vHO−vIRT1≤MTe−κT1/6+MT5/12.v^{\mathrm{HO}} - v^{\mathrm{HO}^1} \le M T e^{-\kappa T^{1/6}},\qquad v^{\mathrm{HO}} - v^{\mathrm{IRT}^1} \le M T e^{-\kappa T^{1/6}} + M T^{5/12}.vHO−vHO1≤MTe−κT1/6,vHO−vIRT1≤MTe−κT1/6+MT5/12.
  • Eq. (13) (p. 29): for every K′K'K′,
vHO−vIRTK′≤M∑u=0K′−1T(5/6)ue−κT(5/6)u/6+MT(5/6)K′/2.v^{\mathrm{HO}} - v^{\mathrm{IRT}^{K'}} \le M\sum_{u=0}^{K'-1} T^{(5/6)^u} e^{-\kappa T^{(5/6)^u/6}} + M T^{(5/6)^{K'}/2}.vHO−vIRTK′≤Mu=0∑K′−1​T(5/6)ue−κT(5/6)u/6+MT(5/6)K′/2.
  • p. 30: T(5/6)K≤eT^{(5/6)^{K}} \le eT(5/6)K≤e, and the right-hand side of (13) at K′=K(T)K' = K(T)K′=K(T) is bounded uniformly in T≥1T \ge 1T≥1.

Significance

The result separates two design choices in re-solving heuristics: how often to re-solve and how to turn an LP solution into a control. It shows that re-solving only O(log⁡log⁡T)O(\log\log T)O(loglogT) times, combined with rounding nearly-degenerate acceptance probabilities to 000 or 111, is enough for bounded regret, and that the constant is uniform over all capacity-to-horizon ratios, so degenerate DLP solutions, which occur only at particular ratios, cause no loss of order. Since vHO≥v∗v^{\mathrm{HO}} \ge v^*vHO≥v∗, it also shows that the hindsight optimum is within a constant of the optimal policy's value in this model.

The result is proved on paper but not machine-checked. A formalization would produce a reusable Poisson-arrival revenue-management model, a precise account of the regret decomposition over re-solving epochs, and an independent check of a proof with known gaps (see Difficulty). No part of it is formalized on the platform.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the policy with the DLP solution and controls the deviation of Poisson demand by its standard deviation; this gives only O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​), because the DLP value exceeds the hindsight optimum by order T\sqrt TT​ and the lost sales accumulate. Bounded regret needs a comparison with the hindsight LP, path by path: the acceptances made before the last re-solve must remain extendable to a hindsight-optimal solution with overwhelming probability. This requires LP sensitivity of the hindsight solution to the random right-hand side, uniformly over the degenerate cases, and the printed proof's statement of it (Lemma 5) is false as printed: on a two-class, single-resource instance its interval for zˉ1\bar z_1zˉ1​ is empty. A correct argument needs a proximity bound for optimal LP solutions under a change of the demand bounds, summed over all classes, not only over Jλ={j:xj∗=λj}J_\lambda = \{j : x^*_j = \lambda_j\}Jλ​={j:xj∗​=λj​}. The analysis of the schedule (the sum over epochs in (13)) is elementary but the printed chain of inequalities on p. 30 uses a monotonicity that fails for large arguments.

Formalization scope

All objects are in the definition item ResolvingNRM.IRT.Model. Classes are Fin n, resources Fin m, A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. LP values reuse piValue from the published RLPBidPrice.Unbiased.Model; the hindsight LP is over real zzz, as in (3). Expectations are explicit sums of Poisson weights. A window of probabilistic allocation is represented by its Poisson count of arrivals, i.i.d. classes with law λj/∑iλi\lambda_j/\sum_i\lambda_iλj​/∑i​λi​ and independent Bernoulli acceptance coins, the standard representation for controls constant on the window. Policies are backward recursions over the re-solving epochs. Ties in the LP are left open: a policy takes an arbitrary optimal-solution selector, and every theorem quantifies over all selectors after its constants.

Conventions and deviations from the page, each disclosed in the item concerned:

  • Standing assumptions of Sec. 2 (p. 7), left implicit there: λj>0\lambda_j > 0λj​>0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0, A≥0A \ge 0A≥0, C≥0C \ge 0C≥0.
  • "O(g)O(g)O(g)" is read as: there is MMM, depending only on (λ,r,A)(\lambda, r, A)(λ,r,A), with the bound ≤Mg(T)\le M g(T)≤Mg(T) for all T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 (or T>0T > 0T>0) and all C≥0C \ge 0C≥0.
  • Milestones applied to sub-horizons T(5/6)uT^{(5/6)^u}T(5/6)u take a real TTT; the goal takes T∈NT \in \mathbb NT∈N.
  • Lemma 4 is stated for 0<x≤μ0 < x \le \mu0<x≤μ; as printed (all x>0x > 0x>0) it is false, e.g. μ=1\mu = 1μ=1, x=5x = 5x=5.
  • In Proposition 1 and (13), κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 is existential and uniform in CCC; the printed κ\kappaκ depends on JλJ_\lambdaJλ​ and is derived through Lemma 5.
  • (13) is stated for every number K′K'K′ of re-solves.
  • Algorithm 3 prints the re-solve right-hand side as C(tk∗)/τkC(t^*_k)/\tau_kC(tk∗​)/τk​; it is read with index uuu.
  • For 1≤T≤e1 \le T \le e1≤T≤e the formula for KKK is undefined or negative; the formalization takes K=0K = 0K=0, so IRT is SPA there.
  • The optimal policy value v∗v^*v∗ and the paper's constant α\alphaα are not defined; Lemmas 5 and 6 are not stated.

A statement that lets MMM depend on TTT or CCC, compares IRT with the DLP instead of the hindsight optimum, uses a fixed number of re-solves, or assumes a nondegenerate or vertex LP solution is trivial or a different theorem, and is ruled out by the quantifier order of the goal. The milestone T(5/6)K≤eT^{(5/6)^K} \le eT(5/6)K≤e has a sorry-free local check.

Welcome contributions: LP proximity results (Cook–Gerards–Schrijver–Tardos type), Poisson concentration, superposition and thinning of Poisson processes, and lemmas on expectations of LP values. The source is arXiv:1802.06192v3; its printed page numbers equal the PDF page numbers.

Selected references

  • P. Bumpensanti, H. Wang, A Re-solving Heuristic with Uniformly Bounded Loss for Network Revenue Management, arXiv:1802.06192v3, 2018; Management Science 66(7), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.06192
  • S. Jasin, S. Kumar, A Re-Solving Heuristic with Bounded Revenue Loss for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice, Mathematics of Operations Research 37(2), 2012. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1110.0530
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.24
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, An Analysis of Bid-Price Controls for Network Revenue Management, Management Science 44(11), 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.11.1577
  • M. Reiman, Q. Wang, An Asymptotically Optimal Policy for a Quantity-Based Network Revenue Management Problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 33(2), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1070.0288
  • W. Cook, A. M. H. Gerards, A. Schrijver, É. Tardos, Sensitivity Theorems in Integer Linear Programming, Mathematical Programming 34, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01582230
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics 1: The k-Nearest-Neighbor Predictive Prescription Is Asymptotically Optimal and ConsistentResearch Paper

Motivation

Operations research has long studied the stochastic problem min⁡z∈ZE[c(z;Y)]\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}\mathbb E[c(z;Y)]minz∈Z​E[c(z;Y)]: choose a decision zzz before an uncertain quantity YYY (demand, prices, returns) is revealed. In practice the decision maker also observes covariates XXX before deciding (web-search volume before stocking a product, weather before routing a shipment) and should solve the conditional problem instead. Bertsimas and Kallus (arXiv:1402.5481v4; Management Science 66(3), 2020) proposed predictive prescriptions: reweight historical observations (xi,yi)(x^i,y^i)(xi,yi) by how relevant they are to the current xxx, using weights borrowed from a nonparametric regression method, and minimize the reweighted sample cost. Their asymptotic theorems guarantee that this procedure converges to the decision that full knowledge of the conditional distribution would give.

The unconditional special case, sample average approximation (SAA) with i.i.d. draws of YYY and no covariate, has a classical consistency theory (Dupačová–Wets 1988; Shapiro 2003). This mission conditions that theory on XXX, with kkk-nearest-neighbour weights.

Setting

Decisions zzz lie in a set Z⊆Rdz\mathcal Z\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_z}Z⊆Rdz​, covariates XXX in X⊆Rdx\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_x}X⊆Rdx​, uncertainty YYY in Y⊆Rdy\mathcal Y\subseteq\mathbb R^{d_y}Y⊆Rdy​; all three spaces carry the Euclidean norm. A cost c(z;y)∈Rc(z;y)\in\mathbb Rc(z;y)∈R is given. Let μ\muμ be the joint law of (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y), μX\mu_XμX​ the law of XXX and μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ the conditional law of YYY given X=xX=xX=x. The conditional cost and the full-information problem (2) are

C(z∣x)=E[c(z;Y)∣X=x],v∗(x)=min⁡z∈ZC(z∣x),Z∗(x)=arg⁡min⁡z∈ZC(z∣x).C(z\mid x)=\mathbb E\big[c(z;Y)\mid X=x\big],\qquad v^*(x)=\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}C(z\mid x),\qquad \mathcal Z^*(x)=\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}C(z\mid x).C(z∣x)=E[c(z;Y)∣X=x],v∗(x)=z∈Zmin​C(z∣x),Z∗(x)=argz∈Zmin​C(z∣x).

The data are SN={(x1,y1),…,(xN,yN)}S_N=\{(x^1,y^1),\dots,(x^N,y^N)\}SN​={(x1,y1),…,(xN,yN)}, the first NNN terms of an i.i.d. sequence with law μ\muμ. The kNN weights (12) are wN,i(x)=1kI[xiw_{N,i}(x)=\frac1k\mathbb I[x^iwN,i​(x)=k1​I[xi is one of the kkk nearest neighbours of xxx among x1,…,xN]x^1,\dots,x^N]x1,…,xN], with ties among equidistant points broken by lower index first. The predictive prescription (3) is any

z^N(x)∈arg⁡min⁡z∈Z C^N(z∣x),C^N(z∣x)=∑i=1NwN,i(x) c(z;yi).\hat z_N(x)\in\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z}\ \widehat C_N(z\mid x),\qquad \widehat C_N(z\mid x)=\sum_{i=1}^N w_{N,i}(x)\,c(z;y^i).z^N​(x)∈argz∈Zmin​ CN​(z∣x),CN​(z∣x)=i=1∑N​wN,i​(x)c(z;yi).

The paper's standing assumptions: Assumption 3 (E∣c(z;Y)∣<∞\mathbb E|c(z;Y)|<\inftyE∣c(z;Y)∣<∞ for every z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z, and Z∗(x)≠∅\mathcal Z^*(x)\ne\emptysetZ∗(x)=∅ for a.e. xxx); Assumption 4 (c(z;y)c(z;y)c(z;y) is equicontinuous in zzz, uniformly over y∈Yy\in\mathcal Yy∈Y); Assumption 5 (Z\mathcal ZZ closed and nonempty, and either bounded, or ccc is bounded below for large ∥z∥\|z\|∥z∥ and for each xxx there is a set DxD_xDx​ of positive conditional probability on which c(z;y)→∞c(z;y)\to\inftyc(z;y)→∞ uniformly as ∥z∥→∞\|z\|\to\infty∥z∥→∞).

Definition 1. z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ is asymptotically optimal if, with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, C(z^N(x)∣x)→v∗(x)C(\hat z_N(x)\mid x)\to v^*(x)C(z^N​(x)∣x)→v∗(x); it is consistent if, with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)∥z^N(x)−z∥→0\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}\|\hat z_N(x)-z\|\to0infz∈Z∗(x)​∥z^N​(x)−z∥→0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (kNN), p. 19 (= Theorem 15, p. 43)

Under Assumptions 3, 4, 5 and i.i.d. sampling, with k=min⁡{⌈CNδ⌉,N−1}k=\min\{\lceil CN^\delta\rceil,N-1\}k=min{⌈CNδ⌉,N−1}, C>0C>0C>0, 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1: with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx, Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x) is nonempty, the argmin is eventually nonempty, and every selection z^N(x)\hat z_N(x)z^N​(x) from it satisfies

lim⁡N→∞C(z^N(x)∣x)=v∗(x)andlim⁡N→∞inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)∥z^N(x)−z∥=0.\lim_{N\to\infty}C(\hat z_N(x)\mid x)=v^*(x)\qquad\text{and}\qquad\lim_{N\to\infty}\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}\|\hat z_N(x)-z\|=0 .N→∞lim​C(z^N​(x)∣x)=v∗(x)andN→∞lim​z∈Z∗(x)inf​∥z^N​(x)−z∥=0.

The goal covers both cases of Assumption 5, including unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ such as the newsvendor's [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Walk step (proof of Theorem 15, p. 47). For any measurable hhh with E∣h(Y)∣<∞\mathbb E|h(Y)|<\inftyE∣h(Y)∣<∞, ∑iwN,i(x)h(yi)→E[h(Y)∣X=x]\sum_i w_{N,i}(x)h(y^i)\to\mathbb E[h(Y)\mid X=x]∑i​wN,i​(x)h(yi)→E[h(Y)∣X=x] a.s., for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx.
  2. Lemma 7 (p. 47). Fixed-zzz and fixed-DDD almost-sure convergence upgrade to convergence for all z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z simultaneously and weak convergence μ^Y∣x,N→μY∣x\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}\to\mu_{Y|x}μ^​Y∣x,N​→μY∣x​, off one null set.
  3. Lemma 5 (p. 45). Along one sample path, pointwise convergence C^N(⋅∣x)→C(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)\to C(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x)→C(⋅∣x) is uniform on compact subsets of Z\mathcal ZZ.
  4. Lemma 6, case 1 (pp. 45–47). For bounded Z\mathcal ZZ, the minima and minimizers of C^N(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x) converge to v∗(x)v^*(x)v∗(x) and to Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x).

Significance

Theorem 5 says that a decision computed from data alone, with no model of the conditional distribution, performs asymptotically as well as the decision a decision maker with full knowledge of μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ would take, for almost every covariate value and under mild conditions on the cost. It justifies the kNN prescription in the paper's newsvendor and shipment-planning experiments, and its proof skeleton (a pointwise strong law for the weights, then Lemmas 5–7) is reused for kernel, local-linear and recursive-kernel weights (Theorems 6–9), which could follow as missions of the same shape.

The result is proved in the paper; it has not been machine-checked anywhere. Formalizing it requires a strong law for nearest-neighbour regression with integrable responses (Walk 2010, building on Devroye, Györfi, Krzyżak and Lugosi 1994), which Mathlib does not have, and a careful treatment of conditional laws at a point. One of the paper's lemmas (Lemma 6) is false as printed for unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ; the formalization isolates the correct statement.

Difficulty

The deterministic optimization part (Lemmas 5 and 6 for bounded Z\mathcal ZZ) is a compactness argument. The central difficulty is the probabilistic input. A natural first idea, applying the strong law of large numbers to C^N(z∣x)\widehat C_N(z\mid x)CN​(z∣x), fails: the kNN weights depend on all of x1,…,xNx^1,\dots,x^Nx1,…,xN and on xxx, the effective sample size kNk_NkN​ grows sublinearly, and convergence is required for almost every xxx simultaneously, including xxx that are atoms of μX\mu_XμX​ where ties are the rule. A second difficulty is the exchange of quantifiers: the strong law gives a null set depending on zzz and on the set DDD, and the conclusion needs one null set for all z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z. Finally, for unbounded Z\mathcal ZZ the minimizers of C^N(⋅∣x)\widehat C_N(\cdot\mid x)CN​(⋅∣x) must be kept bounded, and weak convergence of μ^Y∣x,N\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}μ^​Y∣x,N​ alone does not do so.

Formalization scope

All spaces are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), so kNN distances and ∥z−z′∥\|z-z'\|∥z−z′∥ are Euclidean. The data are a measurable, mutually independent sequence S i : Ω → ℝ^{d_x} × ℝ^{d_y} with each term of law μ\muμ; samples are indexed from 000. The following readings are explicit in the Lean:

  • μY∣x\mu_{Y|x}μY∣x​ is the fixed version μ.condKernel x of the conditional law, and C(z∣x)C(z\mid x)C(z∣x) is its Bochner integral; Assumption 5's "for every x∈Xx\in\mathcal Xx∈X" refers to this version, and DxD_xDx​ is measurable.
  • Quantifier order is "with probability 1, for μX\mu_XμX​-a.e. xxx" (Definition 1), and the selection z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ is quantified inside both a.e. quantifiers: Z∗(x)\mathcal Z^*(x)Z∗(x) is nonempty, the argmin is nonempty for all large NNN, and every sequence lying in it for all large NNN is covered.
  • v∗(x)v^*(x)v∗(x) is never a real infimum; it is read as C(z⋆∣x)C(z^\star\mid x)C(z⋆∣x) for z⋆∈Z∗(x)z^\star\in\mathcal Z^*(x)z⋆∈Z∗(x), nonempty a.e. by Assumption 3.
  • Ties are broken lower-index-first, so the weights sum to 111 for N≥2N\ge2N≥2; at N≤1N\le1N≤1 the formula gives k=0k=0k=0 and all weights 000.
  • Lemmas 5–7 assume weights that are eventually nonnegative and sum to 111, the reading of the paper's Eμ^Y∣x,N\mathbb E_{\hat\mu_{Y|x,N}}Eμ^​Y∣x,N​​ notation; weak convergence is tested against bounded continuous functions.
  • Lemma 6 is posed for bounded Z\mathcal ZZ only, without its unused weak-convergence hypothesis; the goal is posed for both cases.

A formalization that replaces the conditional law by an arbitrary kernel unrelated to μ\muμ, takes z^N\hat z_Nz^N​ to be a fixed measurable selection chosen outside the almost-sure quantifier, or reads inf⁡z∈Z∗(x)\inf_{z\in\mathcal Z^*(x)}infz∈Z∗(x)​ on an empty set as 000 without Assumption 3 would trivialize or weaken the result and is ruled out by the statements above.

Needed infrastructure: nearest-neighbour ranks and their combinatorics (Stone's lemma: a point is among the kkk nearest neighbours of at most a bounded number of others), a strong law for kNN regression, portmanteau-type characterizations of weak convergence for weighted empirical measures, and stability of minimizers under locally uniform convergence. The kNN strong law and the stability lemmas are reusable well beyond this mission. Related platform items, credited but not reused (they concern unconditional SAA): SolutionQuality.SRP.prop1_i, SolutionQuality.SRP.prop1_ii, SolutionQuality.SRP.fbar_tendstoUniformlyOn (Bayraksan–Morton 2006) and DupacovaWets.Consistency.consistency_of_measurable_estimates (Dupačová–Wets 1988). Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, N. Kallus, From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics, arXiv:1402.5481v4, 2018; Management Science 66(3), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.5481v4 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3253
  • H. Walk, Strong laws of large numbers and nonparametric estimation, in Recent Developments in Applied Probability and Statistics, Physica-Verlag, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2598-5_8
  • L. Devroye, L. Györfi, A. Krzyżak, G. Lugosi, On the strong universal consistency of nearest neighbor regression function estimates, Annals of Statistics 22(3), 1994. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176325633
  • J. Dupačová, R. Wets, Asymptotic behavior of statistical estimators and of optimal solutions of stochastic optimization problems, Annals of Statistics 16(4), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176351052
  • A. Shapiro, Monte Carlo sampling methods, in Handbooks in OR & MS 10, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)10006-0
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics 2: For Costs in [0, c̄] That Are L-Lipschitz, w.p. ≥ 1 − δ Every Decision Rule in F Costs ≤ Its Empirical Cost + c̄√(log(1/δ)/2N) + L·ℜ_N(F)Research Paper

Motivation

Many operations decisions are made after observing side information: an inventory manager sees weather, search trends and calendar effects before ordering; a supply-chain planner sees market signals before shipping. Bertsimas and Kallus, in From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics (arXiv:1402.5481v4, Management Science 2020), study how to turn such data into decisions. Besides their local, weight-based prescriptions (the subject of mission 1 of this series), their §8 analyses a second approach: choose a decision rule z(⋅)z(\cdot)z(⋅) from a structured class, such as norm-bounded linear rules, by empirical risk minimization — minimizing the average historical cost of the rule.

The question this mission formalizes is the one any practitioner of that approach must answer: how far can the true expected cost of the chosen rule exceed its in-sample cost? Classical statistical learning answers it with Rademacher complexity (Bartlett and Mendelson, JMLR 2002), but only for real-valued predictors. Operations decisions are vectors (order quantities for several products, shipments to several locations), so the paper extends the theory to multivariate decision rules.

Setting

Covariates xxx take values in a measurable space X\mathcal XX, the uncertain quantity yyy in a measurable space Y\mathcal YY, and decisions zzz in Rd\mathbb R^{d}Rd, unconstrained. Data are an i.i.d. sample SN=((x1,y1),…,(xN,yN))S_N=((x^1,y^1),\dots,(x^N,y^N))SN​=((x1,y1),…,(xN,yN)) from a probability measure μ\muμ on X×Y\mathcal X\times\mathcal YX×Y, and SNx=(x1,…,xN)S_N^x=(x^1,\dots,x^N)SNx​=(x1,…,xN) is its covariate part. A cost c(z;y)c(z;y)c(z;y) is incurred when decision zzz meets outcome yyy. A decision rule is a measurable map z(⋅):X→Rdz(\cdot):\mathcal X\to\mathbb R^dz(⋅):X→Rd; F\mathcal FF is a class of decision rules. Its expected cost is E[c(z(X);Y)]\mathbb E[c(z(X);Y)]E[c(z(X);Y)], and its empirical cost is 1N∑i=1Nc(z(xi);yi)\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N c(z(x^i);y^i)N1​∑i=1N​c(z(xi);yi), the objective of problem (4).

The empirical multivariate Rademacher complexity of F\mathcal FF (Definition 3) on a sample s1,…,sNs_1,\dots,s_Ns1​,…,sN​ is

R^N(F;SN)=Eσ[2Nsup⁡g∈F∑i=1N∑k=1dσik gk(si)],\widehat{\mathfrak R}_N(\mathcal F;S_N)=\mathbb E_\sigma\Big[\frac2N\sup_{g\in\mathcal F}\sum_{i=1}^N\sum_{k=1}^d\sigma_{ik}\,g_k(s_i)\Big],RN​(F;SN​)=Eσ​[N2​g∈Fsup​i=1∑N​k=1∑d​σik​gk​(si​)],

with σik\sigma_{ik}σik​ independent uniform signs, and the marginal complexity RN(F)\mathfrak R_N(\mathcal F)RN​(F) is its expectation over the sample. For real-valued classes (d=1d=1d=1) these are the usual Rademacher complexities with factor 2/N2/N2/N and no absolute value. Lean notation: empRademacher, margRademacher, expCost, empCost, costClass in PrescAnalytics.ERM.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 13 (out-of-sample guarantees)

If 0≤c(z;y)≤cˉ0\le c(z;y)\le\bar c0≤c(z;y)≤cˉ and ∣c(z;y)−c(z′;y)∣≤L∥z−z′∥∞|c(z;y)-c(z';y)|\le L\|z-z'\|_\infty∣c(z;y)−c(z′;y)∣≤L∥z−z′∥∞​, then for any δ>0\delta>0δ>0 each of the following holds with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ:

E[c(z(X);Y)]≤1N∑i=1Nc(z(xi);yi)+cˉlog⁡(1/δ)2N+L RN(F)∀z∈F,(26)\mathbb E[c(z(X);Y)]\le\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N c(z(x^i);y^i)+\bar c\sqrt{\frac{\log(1/\delta)}{2N}}+L\,\mathfrak R_N(\mathcal F)\quad\forall z\in\mathcal F,\tag{26}E[c(z(X);Y)]≤N1​i=1∑N​c(z(xi);yi)+cˉ2Nlog(1/δ)​​+LRN​(F)∀z∈F,(26) E[c(z(X);Y)]≤1N∑i=1Nc(z(xi);yi)+3cˉlog⁡(2/δ)2N+L R^N(F;SNx)∀z∈F.(27)\mathbb E[c(z(X);Y)]\le\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N c(z(x^i);y^i)+3\bar c\sqrt{\frac{\log(2/\delta)}{2N}}+L\,\widehat{\mathfrak R}_N(\mathcal F;S_N^x)\quad\forall z\in\mathcal F.\tag{27}E[c(z(X);Y)]≤N1​i=1∑N​c(z(xi);yi)+3cˉ2Nlog(2/δ)​​+LRN​(F;SNx​)∀z∈F.(27)

In particular they hold for the empirical risk minimizer. The goal is stated for a general class F\mathcal FF, not only the linear rules (25).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (comparison): for G={(x,y)↦c(f(x);y):f∈F}\mathcal G=\{(x,y)\mapsto c(f(x);y):f\in\mathcal F\}G={(x,y)↦c(f(x);y):f∈F}, R^N(G;SN)≤L R^N(F;SNx)\widehat{\mathfrak R}_N(\mathcal G;S_N)\le L\,\widehat{\mathfrak R}_N(\mathcal F;S_N^x)RN​(G;SN​)≤LRN​(F;SNx​) and RN(G)≤L RN(F)\mathfrak R_N(\mathcal G)\le L\,\mathfrak R_N(\mathcal F)RN​(G)≤LRN​(F).
  2. Theorem 14 (29): for a class G\mathcal GG of functions with values in [0,gˉ][0,\bar g][0,gˉ​], with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, Eg≤1N∑ig(ui)+gˉlog⁡(1/δ)/(2N)+RN(G)\mathbb E g\le\frac1N\sum_i g(u^i)+\bar g\sqrt{\log(1/\delta)/(2N)}+\mathfrak R_N(\mathcal G)Eg≤N1​∑i​g(ui)+gˉ​log(1/δ)/(2N)​+RN​(G) for all g∈Gg\in\mathcal Gg∈G.
  3. Theorem 14 (30): the data-dependent version with 3gˉlog⁡(2/δ)/(2N)+R^N(G;SN)3\bar g\sqrt{\log(2/\delta)/(2N)}+\widehat{\mathfrak R}_N(\mathcal G;S_N)3gˉ​log(2/δ)/(2N)​+RN​(G;SN​).

Significance

Theorem 13 says that the quantity empirical risk minimization optimizes is, up to confidence terms that do not depend on the rule, an upper bound on the true expected cost of every rule in the class, uniformly. Bound (27) is computable from data, so it certifies a learned policy without a holdout set. Combined with complexity bounds for norm-restricted linear rules (the paper's Lemmas 2 and 3, not part of this mission), it shows the confidence terms vanish as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞.

The results are known: (29) and (30) for [0,gˉ][0,\bar g][0,gˉ​]-valued classes are the standard Rademacher bounds (Mohri, Rostamizadeh and Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, Thm 3.3, after rescaling). What is new in the paper is the ∞\infty∞-norm vector comparison inequality of Lemma 1 with constant 111. None of these statements has a machine-checked proof on the platform. A formal development would supply a reusable symmetrization-plus-McDiarmid pipeline and a vector contraction lemma. Related items posed in this repository are Bartlett–Mendelson's Theorem 8 (RadGauss.RiskBound.theorem_8, with an absolute value in the complexity and constant 8ln⁡(2/δ)/n\sqrt{8\ln(2/\delta)/n}8ln(2/δ)/n​), Maurer's Euclidean vector contraction with constant 2\sqrt22​ (SPOBounds.Margin.maurer_vector_contraction), and the open uniform law HighDimStat.UniformLaws.uniform_law_rademacher_complexity; none is the same statement as a target here.

Difficulty

The uniform bound needs three ingredients: a concentration inequality for the supremum of the deviation over the class (bounded differences), a symmetrization step relating the expected supremum to the Rademacher complexity, and a comparison inequality to pass from the cost class to the decision rules. The scalar contraction principle of Ledoux and Talagrand does not apply directly, since each cost depends on a ddd-dimensional output; applying it coordinatewise loses a factor of ddd, and Euclidean vector contraction loses 2\sqrt22​ and uses the wrong norm. Lemma 1 needs an argument specific to the ∞\infty∞-norm. Measure theory adds its own difficulty: the supremum over an uncountable class must be shown measurable before its expectation or probability means anything.

Formalization scope

Decisions are Fin d → ℝ, whose Lean norm is the ∞\infty∞-norm; X\mathcal XX, Y\mathcal YY are general measurable spaces. Samples are drawn from the product measure Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin N => μ), with N≥1N\ge1N≥1. The following readings are explicit:

  • Each "with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, … for all z∈Fz\in\mathcal Fz∈F" is a bound ≤δ\le\delta≤δ on the outer measure of the set of samples where the inequality fails for some zzz; the quantifier over the class is inside the event.
  • Empirical complexities are in EReal (an unbounded class gives +∞+\infty+∞), marginal ones are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; 0⋅∞=00\cdot\infty=00⋅∞=0.
  • The paper assumes only sup⁡c≤cˉ\sup c\le\bar csupc≤cˉ (resp. ∣g∣≤gˉ|g|\le\bar g∣g∣≤gˉ​). With that alone (26) and (29) are false — a two-point outcome with a constant rule violates them with probability 1/21/21/2 — so the costs are assumed to take values in [0,cˉ][0,\bar c][0,cˉ], keeping every printed constant.
  • The undefined δ′,δ′′\delta',\delta''δ′,δ′′ are δ\deltaδ (the i.i.d. case of the paper's Theorem 21); the Lipschitz denominator printed as ∥zk−zk′∥∞\|z_k-z'_k\|_\infty∥zk​−zk′​∥∞​ is ∥z−z′∥∞\|z-z'\|_\infty∥z−z′∥∞​.
  • Decision rules and the cost are measurable and the class is pointwise separable (a countable subclass approximates every member pointwise). The paper takes probabilities and expectations of suprema over the class without comment; without such a convention the statement fails for pathological classes.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the quantifier over the class sits inside the probability, the complexity has no absolute value and is never a junk 000 for unbounded classes, and the hypotheses are satisfied by a clipped newsvendor cost. Solvers will need McDiarmid's inequality, symmetrization with a ghost sample, and the comparison lemma; each is reusable for any Rademacher-based generalization bound. Formalizations of these tools as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, N. Kallus, From Predictive to Prescriptive Analytics, arXiv:1402.5481v4, 2018; Management Science 66(3), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.5481 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3253
  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian Complexities: Risk Bounds and Structural Results, JMLR 3, 2002. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v3/bartlett02a.html
  • M. Ledoux, M. Talagrand, Probability in Banach Spaces, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20212-4
  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262039406/
  • A. Maurer, A Vector-Contraction Inequality for Rademacher Complexities, ALT 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.00251
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Projected Newton Methods for Optimization Problems with Simple Constraints: The Projected Newton Method Converges Superlinearly to the Minimum of a Convex Function over the Nonnegative OrthantResearch Paper

Motivation

Smooth optimization with nonnegative variables appears when the variables are Lagrange multipliers for inequality constraints or when an objective incorporates an augmented Lagrangian or an exact penalty. Bertsekas studies how to retain a Newton-like convergence rate in this setting while using an iteration that projects a scaled gradient step onto the nonnegative orthant. His 1982 paper also discusses large optimal-control examples, where repeatedly solving a quadratic subproblem may be costly. These are the applications motivating the method, rather than assumptions of the theorem. Bertsekas, 1982.

The paper contrasts a partly diagonal scaling matrix with two other approaches: a fully diagonal projected gradient step, which generally has a linear rate, and a constrained Newton step defined by a quadratic program. The main theoretical question is whether the simpler projected iteration can still identify binding coordinates and converge superlinearly near the solution. The mission covers the nonnegative-orthant method in §2 and its stated convergence results. The paper's later extension to general linear constraints and its computational examples concern different objects. Bertsekas, 1982.

Setting

Fix a dimension n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and a continuously differentiable function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R. Problem (1) minimizes f(x)f(x)f(x) over the nonnegative orthant R+n={x:xi≥0 for every i}\mathbb R_+^n=\{x:x^i\ge0\text{ for every }i\}R+n​={x:xi≥0 for every i}. The positive part [z]+[z]^+[z]+ replaces each negative coordinate of zzz by zero. A feasible xxx is critical when every partial derivative ∂if(x)\partial_i f(x)∂i​f(x) is nonnegative and ∂if(x)=0\partial_i f(x)=0∂i​f(x)=0 wherever xi>0x^i>0xi>0. This is the paper's componentwise first-order condition.

For a feasible iterate xkx_kxk​, the binding set is B(xk)={i:xki=0}B(x_k)=\{i:x_k^i=0\}B(xk​)={i:xki​=0}. The paper selects a larger working set Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ using a fixed ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and the projected-gradient residual wk=∥xk−[xk−M∇f(xk)]+∥w_k=\|x_k-[x_k-M\nabla f(x_k)]^+\|wk​=∥xk​−[xk​−M∇f(xk​)]+∥, where MMM is fixed, diagonal and positive definite. More precisely, Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ contains the indices with 0≤xki≤min⁡(ε,wk)0\le x_k^i\le\min(\varepsilon,w_k)0≤xki​≤min(ε,wk​) and ∂if(xk)>0\partial_i f(x_k)>0∂i​f(xk​)>0. The matrix DkD_kDk​ is symmetric positive definite and has zero off-diagonal entries in the rows indexed by Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. The projected arc and update are

pk=Dk∇f(xk),xk(a)=[xk−apk]+,xk+1=xk(βmk).p_k=D_k\nabla f(x_k),\qquad x_k(a)=[x_k-a p_k]^+,\qquad x_{k+1}=x_k(\beta^{m_k}).pk​=Dk​∇f(xk​),xk​(a)=[xk​−apk​]+,xk+1​=xk​(βmk​).

Here 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and mkm_kmk​ is the first nonnegative integer passing the paper's two-sum Armijo test (37), with 0<σ<1/20<\sigma<1/20<σ<1/2. One sum uses the scaled gradient outside Ik+I_k^+Ik+​; the other uses the actual projected displacement on Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. These details define the algorithm whose rate is at issue. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 228–229.

Formalization targets

The first targets establish the fixed-point and descent properties of the projected arc, positivity of the Armijo right-hand side, well-defined step selection, criticality of limit points, and local attraction with finite binding-set identification. Proposition 3 identifies both the working set and the actual binding set:

Ik+=B(xk)=B(x∗)for all sufficiently late k.I_k^+=B(x_k)=B(x^*)\quad\text{for all sufficiently late }k.Ik+​=B(xk​)=B(x∗)for all sufficiently late k.

The goal is Proposition 4. Let fff be convex and C2C^2C2, let x∗x^*x∗ be the unique minimizer on R+n\mathbb R_+^nR+n​ satisfying Assumption (C), and suppose the Hessian quadratic form has uniform positive lower and finite upper bounds on the initial, unrestricted sublevel set. The scaling matrix is Dk=Hk−1D_k=H_k^{-1}Dk​=Hk−1​, where HkH_kHk​ retains Hessian entries except for off-diagonal entries touching Ik+I_k^+Ik+​. Then

xk⟶x∗,∀c>0 ∃K ∀k≥K: ∥xk+1−x∗∥≤c∥xk−x∗∥.x_k\longrightarrow x^*,\qquad \forall c>0\ \exists K\ \forall k\ge K:\ \|x_{k+1}-x^*\|\le c\|x_k-x^*\|.xk​⟶x∗,∀c>0 ∃K ∀k≥K: ∥xk+1​−x∗∥≤c∥xk​−x∗∥.

If the Hessian is Lipschitz in a neighborhood of x∗x^*x∗, the same proposition states an at-least-quadratic error bound: ∥xk+1−x∗∥≤C∥xk−x∗∥2\|x_{k+1}-x^*\|\le C\|x_k-x^*\|^2∥xk+1​−x∗∥≤C∥xk​−x∗∥2 eventually for some C>0C>0C>0. The separate final milestone records the paper's claim that the initial unit trial is eventually accepted. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 233–236.

Significance

Proposition 4 says that this specific orthant-projected Newton iteration converges to the unique constrained optimum with a superlinear rate under its stated smoothness and curvature conditions. Proposition 3 supplies a distinct finite-identification statement: the working and binding coordinates eventually match those at the optimum. These facts specify the behavior of an algorithm that does not define its direction by solving a quadratic program at every step. The paper proves the preceding propositions and states Proposition 4 with its proof left to the reader, referring to its earlier discussion and standard unconstrained Newton results. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 234–236.

Formalizing the claims would provide machine-checked statements and, once solved, proofs for the exact projected arc, two-part line search, matrix selection, identification result and rate conclusion. The local mission items are open proof obligations; their compilation checks the definitions and theorem types, not the mathematical claims. The geometry definitions can also support other orthant-constrained algorithms, while the enlarged working set and Armijo rule belong to this paper's method.

Difficulty

A positive definite matrix by itself does not make projection along [x−aD∇f(x)]+[x-aD\nabla f(x)]^+[x−aD∇f(x)]+ a descent move. An off-diagonal coupling can push coordinates against the boundary in a way that defeats the usual unconstrained descent calculation; the paper gives such a situation before Proposition 1. The partly diagonal condition is therefore substantive. A second obstacle is that the exact active set I+(x)I^+(x)I+(x) can jump at a boundary point: iterates approaching that point from the interior need not have the same indexed rows. The enlarged Ik+I_k^+Ik+​ and its dependence on the residual are central to the finite-identification and rate claims. Bertsekas, 1982, pp. 225–229.

Formalization scope

Lean represents Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with the Euclidean norm and zero-based coordinates. The dimension is positive. gradient and the derivative of gradient represent first and second derivatives; the paper's MMM is diag μ with every μi>0\mu^i>0μi>0. The run predicate includes a feasible initial point and the first acceptable integer mkm_kmk​, and the matrix choices are indexed by iteration. Propositions 1–3 use the paper's explicit admissibility condition. Proposition 4 constructs DkD_kDk​ from HkH_kHk​ and does not assume its invertibility, admissibility, convergence or eventual active-set equality.

Assumption (C) includes local C2C^2C2 smoothness, curvature bounds on directions zero at the binding coordinates, and strict complementarity. A local minimum is required to be feasible as well as locally minimal on the orthant. Limit points use subsequential convergence. Superlinearity uses a uniform eventual error inequality, which also covers an iterate that reaches the solution exactly; a ratio with a zero denominator would distort this case. The paper's Proposition 4 display mistakenly binds a direction to the level set while leaving the Hessian's point free. The formalization states the intended reading: every point in the unrestricted initial level set and every direction satisfy the Hessian bounds. The displayed level set has no x≥0x\ge0x≥0 restriction, so neither does the Lean hypothesis.

A definition that accepts any Armijo exponent or a goal that assumes the eventual identification or convergence conclusion would erase the paper's claim. Contributions can build the matrix and projected-arc lemmas, the convergence and identification proofs, and the final rate proof. The local inverse-Hessian observation before Proposition 4 is discussed in the notes but has no separate milestone until its full local setting can be captured without weakening it.

Selected references

  • Dimitri P. Bertsekas, Projected Newton Methods for Optimization Problems with Simple Constraints, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 20(2), 221–246, 1982. DOI: 10.1137/0320018.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Denumerable State Markovian Decision Processes—Average Cost Criterion: Every Limit Point of Policy Improvement Is a Deterministic Stationary Rule That Is Optimal over All RulesResearch Paper

Motivation

Markovian decision processes with the long-run average cost criterion model systems run indefinitely: inventories, queues, maintenance schedules, communication links. For a finite state space the theory was settled by the early 1960s. Howard's policy improvement (policy iteration) procedure (1960) finds an optimal stationary rule in finitely many steps, and Gillette (1957) and Derman (1962) showed that a stationary deterministic rule is optimal over all rules, history-dependent and randomized included (Derman 1962).

Many models of interest, such as queues with unbounded buffers and inventories with unbounded backlog, have a denumerable state space, and there the finite theory breaks down. Derman's paper (Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966) 1545–1553) gives two counterexamples in §2, both under bounded costs and finitely many decisions per state. In the first, due to Maitra, no optimal rule exists. In the second, a randomized stationary rule beats every deterministic one. It then gives sufficient conditions under which a stationary deterministic optimal rule exists and policy improvement finds it.

Timeline:

  • 1960: Howard introduces policy iteration for finite average-cost problems.
  • 1962: Derman proves that deterministic stationary rules are optimal for finite state spaces; Blackwell develops the finite discounted and near-discount theory.
  • 1963–1965: Iglehart (inventory) and Taylor (replacement) treat the average cost criterion in special infinite-state models; Derman's §3 proof follows part of Iglehart's argument.
  • 1964–1965: Blackwell, Maitra, Strauch and Derman (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 1965) treat infinite state spaces under the discounted criterion, where with Ki<∞K_i < \inftyKi​<∞ and bounded costs an optimal rule of C′′C''C′′ always exists.
  • 1966: Derman (this paper) gives the bounded-solution verification theorem and the convergence of policy improvement on a denumerable state space.
  • 1967 onward: Derman and Veinott (announced in §5 of this paper), and later Ross, Sennott, and Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (1993), give conditions for the existence of solutions of the optimality equation.

Setting

The system is observed at times t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… in a state YtY_tYt​ of a denumerable set III. At state iii one of Ki<∞K_i < \inftyKi​<∞ decisions kkk is made (condition (A)). It costs wikw_{ik}wik​, and the next state is jjj with probability qij(k)q_{ij}(k)qij​(k). The costs are bounded (condition (B)) and may have either sign. A rule RRR chooses the decision at each time with probabilities that may depend on the whole history. The class of all rules is CCC, and C′′C''C′′ is the class of stationary deterministic rules ("make decision kik_iki​ at state iii"). The average cost of RRR from Y0=iY_0 = iY0​=i is

QR(i)=lim sup⁡T→∞1T+1∑t=0TERWt,Wt=wYtΔt.Q_R(i) = \limsup_{T\to\infty} \frac{1}{T+1}\sum_{t=0}^{T} E_R W_t, \qquad W_t = w_{Y_t \Delta_t}.QR​(i)=T→∞limsup​T+11​t=0∑T​ER​Wt​,Wt​=wYt​Δt​​.

A rule is optimal over CCC if QR(i)≤QR′(i)Q_R(i) \le Q_{R'}(i)QR​(i)≤QR′​(i) for every R′∈CR' \in CR′∈C and every iii.

The optimality equation (1) asks for a number ggg and a bounded {vj}\{v_j\}{vj​} with

g+vi=min⁡k{wik+∑j∈Iqij(k)vj},i∈I,g + v_i = \min_k \Big\{w_{ik} + \sum_{j\in I} q_{ij}(k) v_j\Big\}, \qquad i \in I,g+vi​=kmin​{wik​+j∈I∑​qij​(k)vj​},i∈I,

and equation (2) is its version for one rule R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′, with kik_iki​ in place of the minimum. Condition (C): every R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′ induces an irreducible Markov chain all of whose states are positive recurrent. Condition (E): every R∈C′′R \in C''R∈C′′ has a solution {gR,vjR}\{g^R, v^R_j\}{gR,vjR​} of (2), bounded uniformly in jjj and RRR. Condition (F): for every jjj the Cesàro limits πij(R)\pi_{ij}(R)πij​(R) of P{Yt=j∣Y0=i}P\{Y_t = j \mid Y_0 = i\}P{Yt​=j∣Y0​=i} satisfy inf⁡R∈C′′,i∈Iπij(R)>0\inf_{R\in C'', i \in I} \pi_{ij}(R) > 0infR∈C′′,i∈I​πij​(R)>0. One policy improvement iteration replaces RRR by a rule R′R'R′ whose decisions minimize wik+∑jqij(k)vjRw_{ik} + \sum_j q_{ij}(k) v_j^Rwik​+∑j​qij​(k)vjR​ at every state.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

Under (A), (B), (C), (E) and (F), let R1,R2,…R_1, R_2, \dotsR1​,R2​,… be any sequence of policy improvement iterations from an arbitrary R1∈C′′R_1 \in C''R1​∈C′′. Then the sequence has a limit point R∗∈C′′R^* \in C''R∗∈C′′, and every limit point satisfies

QR∗(i)≤QR(i)for all R∈C, i∈I,Q_{R^*}(i) \le Q_R(i) \qquad \text{for all } R \in C,\ i \in I,QR∗​(i)≤QR​(i)for all R∈C, i∈I,

with gRn→QR∗(i)g^{R_n} \to Q_{R^*}(i)gRn​→QR∗​(i).

Milestones

  • Display (4): a rule of C′′C''C′′ solving (2) with bounded vvv has QR≡gQ_R \equiv gQR​≡g, the limit existing.
  • Display (6): a bounded solution of (1) gives ∣gn(i)−ng−vi∣≤M|g_n(i) - ng - v_i| \le M∣gn​(i)−ng−vi​∣≤M for the value iteration gng_ngn​ of (5).
  • §3: gn(i)g_n(i)gn​(i) is the least expected cost over the periods 0,…,n0, \dots, n0,…,n among all rules.
  • Theorem 1: a bounded solution of (1) makes every minimizing rule R∗∈C′′R^* \in C''R∗∈C′′ optimal over CCC, with QR∗≡gQ_{R^*} \equiv gQR∗​≡g.
  • Lemma 1 and the remark after it: a strict improvement at a nonempty set of states lowers QQQ at every initial state, by exactly ∑iπiεi\sum_i \pi_i \varepsilon_i∑i​πi​εi​.
  • Theorems 2 and 3: under (C), optimality over C′′C''C′′ implies optimality over CCC; under (C) and (E), an optimal rule of C′′C''C′′ exists.
  • Lemma 2: along policy improvement the gaps εiRn\varepsilon_i^{R_n}εiRn​​ tend to 000 at every state.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the countable-state verification theorem. It is the template for all later average-cost theory on infinite state spaces, which replaces boundedness of vvv by growth or Lyapunov conditions. Theorem 4 extends policy improvement, the standard algorithm for finite average-cost problems, to denumerable state spaces, under conditions that do not reduce the problem to a finite one.

Derman proved these results in 1966. None of them has been machine-checked: the platform has finite-state average-cost policy iteration and finite-state verification theorems, but no countable-state result of this kind. A formal development checks the analytic steps that the paper treats briefly. These are the interchange of limits and infinite sums in (3), (9) and (11), and the identification of the Cesàro limits of a positive recurrent chain with its steady-state probabilities.

Difficulty

On a finite state space, policy improvement terminates because there are finitely many rules and the average cost strictly decreases. On a denumerable state space C′′C''C′′ is uncountable, so neither step works. The sequence need not terminate. With ties in the minimization it need not converge either. A strict decrease of gRng^{R_n}gRn​ does not force the gaps to vanish. That needs (F), a uniform positive lower bound on the long-run occupation of each state. Passing to the limit in (2) along a subsequence requires a limit interchange in an infinite sum, which works only because {vR}\{v^R\}{vR} is uniformly bounded. Finally, comparing with history-dependent randomized rules needs the finite-horizon argument behind (6). A stationary-rule comparison is not enough.

Formalization scope

The model is the published Markov decision chain SennottDP.AvgFinite.MDC: a countable state type, a finite nonempty Finset of decisions at each state (so (A) is built in), and transition probabilities in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] summing to one. History-dependent randomized rules are Policy M, and C′′C''C′′ is StationaryPolicy M. The chain notions (irreducibility, positive recurrence, steady state 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​) come from the published SennottDP.MarkovCost.Chain. The conventions are as follows.

  • Costs are a separate signed function w with (B). The nonnegative cost field of MDC is unused, and w≥0w \ge 0w≥0 is not assumed.
  • ERWtE_R W_tER​Wt​ is the genuine expectation against the history law, and QRQ_RQR​ is the real limsup with the paper's normalization (T+1)−1(T+1)^{-1}(T+1)−1.
  • Every use of (1) or (2) assumes vvv bounded, so the series ∑jqij(k)vj\sum_j q_{ij}(k) v_j∑j​qij​(k)vj​ converge absolutely. The bound is part of the paper's hypotheses: without it Theorem 1 is false on infinite III.
  • (E) is an explicit family gR,vRg^R, v^RgR,vR, and the improvement step is taken against it, with arbitrary tie-breaking. (D) follows from (E) and is not a separate hypothesis.
  • (F) is stated with Cesàro limits. That they equal the steady-state probabilities under (C) is a proof obligation.
  • "Converges" in Theorem 4 is read as: a limit point exists, and every limit point is optimal over CCC. Whole-sequence convergence is not claimed, because the paper's proof does not establish it.
  • Sequences are indexed from 000.

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out: optimality is over all history-dependent randomized rules, never only over C′′C''C′′, and QRQ_RQR​ is computed from the process law, never defined through (2).

A complete development needs Cesàro convergence of ttt-step probabilities to 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​ for positive recurrent chains, dominated convergence for bounded functions against stochastic kernels, the finite-horizon dynamic programming principle for history-dependent rules, and a diagonal (Tychonoff) argument in ∏i{1,…,Ki}\prod_i \{1,\dots,K_i\}∏i​{1,…,Ki​}. The first and third are reusable well beyond this paper. Contributions of these lemmas as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Derman, Denumerable State Markovian Decision Processes—Average Cost Criterion, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(6) (1966) 1545–1553. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699146
  • C. Derman, On Sequential Decisions and Markov Chains, Management Sci. 9(1) (1962) 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.16
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Wiley, New York, 1960.
  • D. L. Iglehart, Dynamic programming and stationary analysis of inventory problems, Ch. 1 of Multistage Inventory Models and Techniques (H. Scarf, D. Gilford, M. Shelly, eds.), Stanford Univ. Press, 1963.
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, Springer, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-49686-8
  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993) 282–344. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimality and Duality Theory for Stochastic Optimization Problems with Nonlinear Dominance Constraints 1: Under Uniform Dominance, Optimal Solutions Have Concave Utility and L∞ MultipliersResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic programs often optimize a decision that changes several random outcomes at once. A reference outcome may be acceptable even when no fixed threshold captures its risk: one wants the new outcome to be preferable under every increasing concave assessment of gains. Second order stochastic dominance expresses that comparison. Dentcheva and Ruszczyński study optimization with several such constraints, each imposed on a nonlinear outcome operator, and show how the constraint multipliers can be represented by utility functions rather than scalar penalties (Dentcheva–Ruszczyński, 2004). Their earlier paper, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, treats the pure dominance case without the nonlinear decision map; the present result adds decision dependent outcomes, multiple constraints, and split variables. Ogryczak and Ruszczyński's second performance function supplies the stochastic order used here (Ogryczak–Ruszczyński, 2002).

The utility interpretation matters when a modeler wants a certificate explaining why a solution satisfies a risk preference expressed by dominance. The theorem identifies a concave utility for each binding dominance constraint and an essentially bounded multiplier for each comparison between the split outcome and the outcome produced by the decision. The source is a revised April 2003 author manuscript, later published in Mathematical Programming in 2004; the page and equation numbers below follow that manuscript (author manuscript).

Setting

Work on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P). An integrable random outcome is a measurable real function with finite expected absolute value; L1\mathcal L^1L1 denotes these outcomes, and L∞\mathcal L^\inftyL∞ denotes essentially bounded ones. The decisions lie in a convex set ZZZ inside a separable locally convex Hausdorff real vector space Z\mathcal ZZ. An integrable objective outcome H(z)H(z)H(z) and integrable constraint outcomes Gi(z)G_i(z)Gi​(z) depend continuously in the L1\mathcal L^1L1 norm on zzz. Almost every realized map z↦H(z)(ω)z\mapsto H(z)(\omega)z↦H(z)(ω) and z↦Gi(z)(ω)z\mapsto G_i(z)(\omega)z↦Gi​(z)(ω) is concave and continuous on all of Z\mathcal ZZ. Fixed integrable outcomes YiY_iYi​ serve as references; the iiith comparison is required over a bounded interval [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​].

For an outcome XXX, its second performance function is the area below its distribution function:

F2(X;η)=∫−∞ηP{X≤ξ} dξ.F_2(X;\eta)=\int_{-\infty}^{\eta}P\{X\le\xi\}\,d\xi.F2​(X;η)=∫−∞η​P{X≤ξ}dξ.

The split program (11)–(14) chooses z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z and X=(X1,…,Xm)∈(L1)mX=(X_1,\ldots,X_m)\in(\mathcal L^1)^mX=(X1​,…,Xm​)∈(L1)m to maximize EH(z)\mathbb E H(z)EH(z), subject to F2(Xi;η)≤F2(Yi;η)F_2(X_i;\eta)\le F_2(Y_i;\eta)F2​(Xi​;η)≤F2​(Yi​;η) for every η∈[ai,bi]\eta\in[a_i,b_i]η∈[ai​,bi​], and Xi≤Gi(z)X_i\le G_i(z)Xi​≤Gi​(z) almost surely. Larger outcomes are preferred, so a dominating XiX_iXi​ has the smaller F2F_2F2​ curve. The split variables expose the dominance and decision coupling as separate constraints (manuscript, pp. 3–4).

The utility cone U1([a,b])\mathcal U_1([a,b])U1​([a,b]) consists of concave nondecreasing functions u:R→Ru:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Ru:R→R that vanish for t≥bt\ge bt≥b and are affine with a nonnegative slope for t≤at\le at≤a. Given uiu_iui​ in these cones and θi∈L∞\theta_i\in\mathcal L^\inftyθi​∈L∞, the Lagrangian is

L(z,X,u,θ)=E ⁣[H(z)+∑i=1m(ui(Xi)−ui(Yi)+θi(Gi(z)−Xi))].L(z,X,u,\theta)=\mathbb E\!\left[H(z)+\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl(u_i(X_i)-u_i(Y_i)+\theta_i(G_i(z)-X_i)\bigr)\right].L(z,X,u,θ)=E[H(z)+i=1∑m​(ui​(Xi​)−ui​(Yi​)+θi​(Gi​(z)−Xi​))].

Uniform dominance means one decision z~∈Z\tilde z\in Zz~∈Z makes every dominance inequality uniformly strict on its interval: for each iii, F2(Yi;η)−F2(Gi(z~);η)F_2(Y_i;\eta)-F_2(G_i(\tilde z);\eta)F2​(Yi​;η)−F2​(Gi​(z~);η) has a positive lower bound over [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​] (Definition 1, p. 7).

Formalization targets

Utility and bounded multiplier characterization

Theorem 2 is the goal. Under uniform dominance, every optimum (z^,X^)(\hat z,\hat X)(z^,X^) of the split program admits u^i∈U1([ai,bi])\hat u_i\in\mathcal U_1([a_i,b_i])u^i​∈U1​([ai​,bi​]) and nonnegative θ^i∈L∞\hat\theta_i\in\mathcal L^\inftyθ^i​∈L∞ with

L(z^,X^,u^,θ^)=max⁡z∈Z, X∈(L1)mL(z,X,u^,θ^),L(\hat z,\hat X,\hat u,\hat\theta)=\max_{z\in Z,\,X\in(\mathcal L^1)^m}L(z,X,\hat u,\hat\theta),L(z^,X^,u^,θ^)=z∈Z,X∈(L1)mmax​L(z,X,u^,θ^), Eu^i(X^i)=Eu^i(Yi),θ^i(X^i−Gi(z^))=0almost surely.\mathbb E\hat u_i(\hat X_i)=\mathbb E\hat u_i(Y_i),\qquad \hat\theta_i\bigl(\hat X_i-G_i(\hat z)\bigr)=0\quad\text{almost surely}.Eu^i​(X^i​)=Eu^i​(Yi​),θ^i​(X^i​−Gi​(z^))=0almost surely.

Conversely, an attained Lagrangian maximum satisfying the split constraints and these complementarity equations is a primal optimum. The milestone list follows the source's measure multiplier equations (23)–(24), the measure to utility identity (25), Theorem 1's expected concave subgradient characterization, and the converse's weak duality inequality (manuscript, pp. 5, 8–10).

Significance

The result gives a concrete optimality certificate in a program whose constraints compare entire outcome distributions. Each utility multiplier represents the active part of one dominance constraint. Each θi\theta_iθi​ accounts for the almost sure inequality linking a split outcome to the decision. The equalities show exactly where those constraints are complementary, while the Lagrangian maximum compares the proposed solution with all integrable split outcomes. The paper derives a dual problem from the same Lagrangian in its following section (manuscript, p. 11).

The mathematical theorem is proved in the paper. This mission seeks a machine checked version of its definitions, measure identity, subgradient statement, and both directions of Theorem 2. The published second performance definition is reused as a reference; the nonlinear split program and its utility and measure Lagrangians require a development specific to this paper. The 2003 pure dominance mission contains related local drafts, but those items are not published and cannot currently be imported as platform theorems.

Difficulty

The dominance inequality contains a continuum of thresholds for each outcome. A scalar multiplier at one threshold cannot capture the whole constraint, while the dual object for continuous functions on [ai,bi][a_i,b_i][ai​,bi​] is a measure. The split inequality lives in L1\mathcal L^1L1, where the nonnegative cone has empty interior, so an ordinary interior point argument applied to all constraints at once does not match the paper's setting. The source also needs a subgradient of expected concave utility represented by an almost surely selected, essentially bounded random vector; the conclusion is stronger than merely knowing that the expected objective has a deterministic supporting functional (manuscript, pp. 5–9).

Formalization scope

The Lean development keeps the general separable locally convex Hausdorff decision space, the convex set ZZZ, and a finite index type for the mmm dominance constraints. Operators are function representatives with explicit integrability, continuity in L1\mathcal L^1L1, and samplewise concavity and continuity. Almost sure comparisons use the probability measure PPP; the null set for each realization condition precedes the quantifier over decisions. Split outcomes range only over integrable functions, and utility multipliers range over the exact cone U1([ai,bi])\mathcal U_1([a_i,b_i])U1​([ai​,bi​]). The L∞\mathcal L^\inftyL∞ condition includes almost sure strong measurability and essential boundedness. Maxima in Theorems 1 and 2 are attained maxima, expressed by membership and comparison against every competitor, never a real supremum with a default value.

The source prints a strictly positive affine slope in its definition of U1\mathcal U_1U1​, but immediately calls this class a cone and later uses the zero measure. The formalization uses c≥0c\ge0c≥0; with c>0c>0c>0, Theorem 2 is false for a slack dominance constraint. Uniform dominance is expressed as a positive lower bound rather than a real infimum. The measure milestone uses finite nonnegative measures supported on closed intervals, including endpoint atoms. These conditions exclude default zero integrals, an empty interval disguised by an infimum, and a vacuous utility class. Contributions to the measure to utility correspondence, integration identities, and expected concave subgradient infrastructure can be reused beyond this program.

Selected references

  • D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Optimality and duality theory for stochastic optimization problems with nonlinear dominance constraints, Mathematical Programming (2004), DOI; revised author manuscript, April 2003.
  • D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Optimization with stochastic dominance constraints, manuscript submitted for publication (2002), cited as reference [6] in the 2003 author manuscript.
  • W. Ogryczak and A. Ruszczyński, Dual stochastic dominance and related mean risk models, SIAM Journal on Optimization 13 (2002), DOI.
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🏆Completed
Linear OptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing 4: Online Rounding of the Fractional Routing Scheme Respects Capacities and Is O(log P(max)·[exp(1 + 2 ln m/u(min)) − 1])-CompetitiveResearch Paper

Motivation

In online routing of virtual circuits, connection requests between pairs of nodes of a capacitated network arrive one at a time. Each request must be accepted and routed on a single path with bandwidth 111, or rejected, immediately and irrevocably, and no edge may carry more than its capacity. The goal is to maximize the number of accepted requests (the throughput). The model goes back to Awerbuch, Azar and Plotkin (FOCS 1993), whose deterministic algorithm has a logarithmic competitive ratio when edge capacities are at least logarithmic in the size of the network, and it underlies the analysis of admission control in circuit-switched and bandwidth-reserved networks.

Buchbinder and Naor (Math. Oper. Res. 2009) recover an algorithm with the same competitive factor from a general recipe: an online primal–dual scheme first produces a feasible fractional routing online, and an online version of Raghavan's pessimistic estimator (J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 1988) then rounds it, also online. This mission formalizes that construction and its guarantee (Section 5.2 of the paper, with the Section 3 scheme it uses).

Timeline:

  • 1987–1988: Raghavan and Thompson introduce randomized rounding for multicommodity flow; Raghavan derandomizes it with pessimistic estimators.
  • 1993: Awerbuch, Azar and Plotkin give the deterministic throughput-competitive online routing algorithm.
  • 2005–2009: Buchbinder and Naor's primal–dual framework (ESA 2005; MOR 2009) derives an algorithm with the same factor systematically.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite set of mmm edges with capacities u(e)>0u(e) > 0u(e)>0, and u(min⁡)=min⁡eu(e)u(\min) = \min_e u(e)u(min)=mine​u(e). Requests r1,r2,…r_1, r_2, \dotsr1​,r2​,… arrive online; request rir_iri​ comes with a finite list P(ri)\mathcal P(r_i)P(ri​) of admissible paths, each a set of edges, all of size at most P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max).

A fractional routing assigns flows f(ri,P)≥0f(r_i, P) \ge 0f(ri​,P)≥0; it is feasible when ∑P∈P(ri)f(ri,P)≤1\sum_{P \in \mathcal P(r_i)} f(r_i, P) \le 1∑P∈P(ri​)​f(ri​,P)≤1 for every request and the load ∑ri∑P∋ef(ri,P)\sum_{r_i}\sum_{P \ni e} f(r_i, P)∑ri​​∑P∋e​f(ri​,P) of every edge is at most u(e)u(e)u(e). Its value is val(f)=∑ri∑Pf(ri,P)\mathrm{val}(f) = \sum_{r_i}\sum_P f(r_i, P)val(f)=∑ri​​∑P​f(ri​,P); OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is the largest value of a feasible routing of the arrived requests, an upper bound on the integral optimum.

The fractional scheme. The covering LP paired with the routing LP (the paper's primal, Fig. 3) has variables x(e)x(e)x(e) (cost u(e)u(e)u(e)) and Z(ri)Z(r_i)Z(ri​) (cost 111) with constraints ∑e∈Px(e)+Z(ri)≥1\sum_{e \in P} x(e) + Z(r_i) \ge 1∑e∈P​x(e)+Z(ri​)≥1. When rir_iri​ arrives, its paths are visited in order; for each path whose constraint fails, f(ri,P)f(r_i,P)f(ri​,P) is raised from 000 to the least value restoring it, while x(e)=max⁡(x(e),1ℓ(eB′Fe/(2u(e))−1))x(e) = \max\big(x(e), \tfrac1\ell(e^{B' F_e/(2u(e))}-1)\big)x(e)=max(x(e),ℓ1​(eB′Fe​/(2u(e))−1)) for e∈Pe \in Pe∈P and Z(ri)=max⁡(Z(ri),1ℓ(eB′f(ri)/2−1))Z(r_i) = \max\big(Z(r_i), \tfrac1\ell(e^{B' f(r_i)/2}-1)\big)Z(ri​)=max(Z(ri​),ℓ1​(eB′f(ri​)/2−1)) follow the flow (FeF_eFe​ the load of eee, f(ri)f(r_i)f(ri​) the flow of rir_iri​). The parameters are ℓ=P(max⁡)+1\ell = P(\max)+1ℓ=P(max)+1 and B′=2ln⁡(1+ℓ)B' = 2\ln(1+\ell)B′=2ln(1+ℓ).

The rounding. With the rounding scale B=exp⁡(1+ln⁡(2m)/u(min⁡))−1B = \exp(1 + \ln(2m)/u(\min)) - 1B=exp(1+ln(2m)/u(min))−1, the integral edge usage χ(e)\chi(e)χ(e) and the number sss of served requests, the potential is Φ=Φ1+Φ2\Phi = \Phi_1 + \Phi_2Φ=Φ1​+Φ2​,

Φ1=12exp⁡(val(f)2B−sln⁡2),Φ2=12m∑eexp⁡((1+ln⁡2mu(e))χ(e)−Fe).\Phi_1 = \tfrac12\exp\Big(\frac{\mathrm{val}(f)}{2B} - s\ln 2\Big), \qquad \Phi_2 = \frac1{2m}\sum_{e}\exp\Big(\Big(1+\frac{\ln 2m}{u(e)}\Big)\chi(e) - F_e\Big).Φ1​=21​exp(2Bval(f)​−sln2),Φ2​=2m1​e∑​exp((1+u(e)ln2m​)χ(e)−Fe​).

After the fractional round of rir_iri​, the algorithm serves rir_iri​ on a path P∈P(ri)P \in \mathcal P(r_i)P∈P(ri​) (adding 111 to χ(e)\chi(e)χ(e) for e∈Pe \in Pe∈P) if this gives potential at most the potential Φstart\Phi^{\mathrm{start}}Φstart before the round; otherwise it rejects rir_iri​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 5.4

For every request sequence, the algorithm never exceeds a capacity, and for every feasible fractional routing fff,

χ(e)≤u(e)  ∀e,∑riχ(ri) ≥ val(f)4Bln⁡2⋅ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)−1.\chi(e) \le u(e)\ \ \forall e, \qquad \sum_{r_i}\chi(r_i) \ \ge\ \frac{\mathrm{val}(f)}{4B\ln 2\cdot\ln(P(\max)+2)} - 1 .χ(e)≤u(e)  ∀e,ri​∑​χ(ri​) ≥ 4Bln2⋅ln(P(max)+2)val(f)​−1.

Milestone: Theorem 3.2 (packing half, on routing)

The fractional scheme's flows falgf^{\mathrm{alg}}falg are feasible and val(f)≤2ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2) val(falg)\mathrm{val}(f) \le 2\ln(P(\max)+2)\,\mathrm{val}(f^{\mathrm{alg}})val(f)≤2ln(P(max)+2)val(falg) for every feasible fff.

Milestone: Lemma 5.3

Φ≤1\Phi \le 1Φ≤1 initially, Φ>0\Phi > 0Φ>0 always, and whenever the flows of a request are raised by a non-negative amount of total at most 111, serving the request on some path or rejecting it does not increase Φ\PhiΦ.

Significance

The result shows that a deterministic online algorithm for throughput-competitive routing, previously designed by hand, falls out of two generic components: an online fractional packing scheme and an online pessimistic estimator. A side product is that the fractional phase alone produces, online, a near-optimal routing that respects all capacities exactly, independently of their size. When u(min⁡)≥log⁡nu(\min) \ge \log nu(min)≥logn the rounding loses only a constant factor and the algorithm is O(log⁡P(max⁡))O(\log P(\max))O(logP(max))-competitive, as in Awerbuch–Azar–Plotkin.

The results are proved in the paper; none is machine-checked. A formalization supplies a checked instance of the online primal–dual method together with derandomized online rounding, and fixes the constants the paper leaves inside O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅). Related platform content: the monograph's OnlinePrimalDual.Routing.per_copy_guarantee and routing_competitive concern the Buchbinder–Naor (1,O(log⁡n))(1, O(\log n))(1,O(logn))-competitive algorithm with copies of the graph, a different scheme.

Difficulty

The fractional guarantee is argued in the paper continuously (rates of change of the primal and dual values), while the scheme as formalized is discrete: each flow is the least value restoring a constraint, and every primal variable is a maximum whose branch may switch during the increase. The continuous argument does not transfer verbatim, and feasibility depends on the least value restoring the constraint with equality.

The rounding is a derandomization. The existence of a good path or a good rejection is established in the paper as an expectation over a random trial; a deterministic statement about finitely many alternatives is what the mission asks for, with all m+1m+1m+1 exponential terms of Φ\PhiΦ under control at once. A frequent first attempt compares with the potential after the fractional round; the rule compares with Φstart\Phi^{\mathrm{start}}Φstart, before the flow increase, and the guarantee is stated for that comparison.

Formalization scope

  • Edges are a non-empty Fintype E; capacities are real and positive. A request is a List (Finset E) of paths; the request sequence is a list. Simple paths of a graph are a special case; nothing in the argument uses graph structure. P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max) is a parameter with every path of size at most P(max⁡)P(\max)P(max).
  • A routing is a List (List ℝ) of the shape of the request sequence. OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is quantified as "every feasible fractional routing".
  • The continuous increase is its discrete equivalent (an attained sInf). Ties among good paths are broken by list order; only paths that received flow in the current round are candidates for serving, so a request whose flow was not increased is rejected.
  • Explicit constants replacing O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅): Theorem 3.2's O(log⁡ℓ)O(\log \ell)O(logℓ) becomes 2ln⁡(1+ℓ)=2ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)2\ln(1+\ell) = 2\ln(P(\max)+2)2ln(1+ℓ)=2ln(P(max)+2); Lemma 5.4's O(log⁡P(max⁡)⋅[exp⁡(1+2ln⁡m/u(min⁡))−1])O(\log P(\max)\cdot[\exp(1+2\ln m/u(\min))-1])O(logP(max)⋅[exp(1+2lnm/u(min))−1]) becomes 4Bln⁡2⋅ln⁡(P(max⁡)+2)4B\ln 2\cdot\ln(P(\max)+2)4Bln2⋅ln(P(max)+2) with additive −1-1−1, where B=exp⁡(1+ln⁡(2m)/u(min⁡))−1B = \exp(1+\ln(2m)/u(\min))-1B=exp(1+ln(2m)/u(min))−1 is the scale chosen on p. 15. The printed "2ln⁡m2\ln m2lnm" differs from the proof's "ln⁡2m\ln 2mln2m"; the proof's constant is used (it is at least as strong for m≥2m \ge 2m≥2). All logarithms are natural.
  • The algorithm is a fully specified function: a formalization in which requests are never served, or OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT is a free variable pinned by hypotheses, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out.
  • Not included: the covering half of Theorem 3.2, and the remark on u(min⁡)≥log⁡nu(\min) \ge \log nu(min)≥logn.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a reusable lemma "convex combination ≤\le≤ value ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ some outcome ≤\le≤ value" for derandomization, and the discrete-to-continuous bridge for the Section 3 scheme.

Selected references

  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0363
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar, S. Plotkin, Throughput-Competitive On-Line Routing, Proc. 34th FOCS, pp. 32–40, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1109/SFCS.1993.366884
  • P. Raghavan, Probabilistic construction of deterministic algorithms: approximating packing integer programs, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 37(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0000(88)90003-7
  • P. Raghavan, C. D. Thompson, Randomized rounding: a technique for provably good algorithms and algorithmic proofs, Combinatorica 7(4), 1987. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579324
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey 2: Uniformly Bounded Mean Return Times Make the Differential Discounted Values Uniformly BoundedResearch Paper

Motivation

Controlled Markov processes with the average cost criterion model systems that run indefinitely, such as queues, inventories, maintenance and communication networks, where only the long-run cost per unit time matters. The standard route to an optimal stationary policy goes through the average cost optimality equation (ACOE). The ACOE is usually obtained by the vanishing discount method: solve the discounted problem for each discount factor β<1\beta<1β<1 and let β→1\beta\to1β→1. The method works only when the differences of discounted values stay bounded as β→1\beta\to1β→1. Conditions that guarantee this are therefore central in the survey of Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus (SIAM J. Control Optim. 31 (1993), §5).

This mission formalizes one such condition, due to Ross: if the mean return time to a fixed state is bounded uniformly over all stationary policies and initial states, the differential discounted value functions are bounded uniformly in the discount factor and the state.

Timeline. Derman (Management Sci. 9 (1962); survey reference [38]) and Derman–Veinott (Ann. Math. Statist. 38 (1967); survey reference [43]) introduced recurrence conditions of this kind for countable-state processes. Ross (Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968), survey reference [147]; Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, 1983, survey reference [150]) showed, for bounded costs, that under a Derman–Veinott type recurrence condition hβh_\betahβ​ is bounded uniformly in β\betaβ, and obtained a bounded solution of the ACOE by letting β↑1\beta\uparrow1β↑1 (survey, pp. 291 and 301). Later work replaced the condition with weaker ones (survey Assumptions 5.1–5.3) and with Sennott's conditions (survey Theorem 5.9).

Setting

The state space is S={0,1,2,… }S=\{0,1,2,\dots\}S={0,1,2,…}. In each state iii, an action aaa is chosen from a nonempty compact set U(i)U(i)U(i) of a metric space AAA. The one-stage cost c(i,a)c(i,a)c(i,a) is nonnegative and the next state is drawn from the transition law P(⋅∣i,a)P(\cdot\mid i,a)P(⋅∣i,a). For fixed i,ji,ji,j, the maps a↦c(i,a)a\mapsto c(i,a)a↦c(i,a) and a↦P(j∣i,a)a\mapsto P(j\mid i,a)a↦P(j∣i,a) are continuous on U(i)U(i)U(i). A policy π∈Π\pi\in\Piπ∈Π chooses the action at time ttt at random, given the whole history, and must choose from U(Xt)U(X_t)U(Xt​). A stationary deterministic policy f∈ΠSDf\in\Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ is a map f:S→Af:S\to Af:S→A with f(i)∈U(i)f(i)\in U(i)f(i)∈U(i). PiπP^\pi_iPiπ​ and EiπE^\pi_iEiπ​ denote the law and the expectation of the controlled process (Xt,At)(X_t,A_t)(Xt​,At​) started at iii.

For a discount factor β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), the discounted cost and the optimal discounted cost are

Jβ(i,π)=Eiπ[∑t=0∞βtc(Xt,At)],Jβ∗(i)=inf⁡π∈ΠJβ(i,π).J_\beta(i,\pi)=E^\pi_i\Big[\sum_{t=0}^\infty\beta^t c(X_t,A_t)\Big],\qquad J^*_\beta(i)=\inf_{\pi\in\Pi}J_\beta(i,\pi).Jβ​(i,π)=Eiπ​[t=0∑∞​βtc(Xt​,At​)],Jβ∗​(i)=π∈Πinf​Jβ​(i,π).

A policy f∈ΠSDf\in\Pi_{SD}f∈ΠSD​ is β\betaβ-discount optimal if Jβ(i,f)=Jβ∗(i)J_\beta(i,f)=J^*_\beta(i)Jβ​(i,f)=Jβ∗​(i) for all iii. The differential discounted value function is

hβ(i)=Jβ∗(i)−Jβ∗(0),h_\beta(i)=J^*_\beta(i)-J^*_\beta(0),hβ​(i)=Jβ∗​(i)−Jβ∗​(0),

measured relative to the fixed state 000. The return time to 000 is

τ=min⁡{t≥1: Xt=0},\tau=\min\{t\ge1:\ X_t=0\},τ=min{t≥1: Xt​=0},

with τ=∞\tau=\inftyτ=∞ if the process never returns. Throughout, as in §5.1 of the survey, the cost is bounded: c(i,a)≤Mc(i,a)\le Mc(i,a)≤M on admissible pairs.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

If there is a constant K>0K>0K>0 with

Eif[τ]<Kfor all f∈ΠSD, i∈S,(5.7)E^f_i[\tau]<K\qquad\text{for all } f\in\Pi_{SD},\ i\in S, \tag{5.7}Eif​[τ]<Kfor all f∈ΠSD​, i∈S,(5.7)

then there is a constant BBB such that

∣hβ(i)∣≤Bfor all β∈(0,1), i∈S.|h_\beta(i)|\le B\qquad\text{for all }\beta\in(0,1),\ i\in S.∣hβ​(i)∣≤Bfor all β∈(0,1), i∈S.

This is the theorem as printed: it asserts only uniform boundedness and fixes no constant.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1 (iii): for every β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), a β\betaβ-discount optimal fβ∈ΠSDf_\beta\in\Pi_{SD}fβ​∈ΠSD​ exists.
  2. (5.8): for such an fβf_\betafβ​, Jβ∗(i)≤M Eifβ[τ]+Jβ∗(0) Eifβ[βτ]J^*_\beta(i)\le M\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\tau]+J^*_\beta(0)\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\beta^\tau]Jβ∗​(i)≤MEifβ​​[τ]+Jβ∗​(0)Eifβ​​[βτ].
  3. (5.9): Jβ∗(i)−βJβ∗(0)≤MKJ^*_\beta(i)-\beta J^*_\beta(0)\le MKJβ∗​(i)−βJβ∗​(0)≤MK.
  4. Jensen step: Jβ∗(i)≥Jβ∗(0) Eifβ[βτ]≥Jβ∗(0) βKJ^*_\beta(i)\ge J^*_\beta(0)\,E^{f_\beta}_i[\beta^\tau]\ge J^*_\beta(0)\,\beta^KJβ∗​(i)≥Jβ∗​(0)Eifβ​​[βτ]≥Jβ∗​(0)βK.
  5. (5.10): Jβ∗(0)−Jβ∗(i)≤(1−βK)Jβ∗(0)≤(1−βK)M1−β≤MKJ^*_\beta(0)-J^*_\beta(i)\le(1-\beta^K)J^*_\beta(0)\le(1-\beta^K)\frac{M}{1-\beta}\le MKJβ∗​(0)−Jβ∗​(i)≤(1−βK)Jβ∗​(0)≤(1−βK)1−βM​≤MK.
  6. Explicit bound: ∣hβ(i)∣≤MK|h_\beta(i)|\le MK∣hβ​(i)∣≤MK. This is stronger than the goal and is the constant the survey's argument yields.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.3 verifies the hypothesis of the vanishing discount theorem (Theorem 5.2 of the survey) from a condition on the uncontrolled dynamics of stationary policies. Theorem 5.2 then gives a bounded solution (ρ,h)(\rho,h)(ρ,h) of the ACOE, an average optimal stationary policy, and the limit lim⁡β→1(1−β)Jβ∗(i)=ρ\lim_{\beta\to1}(1-\beta)J^*_\beta(i)=\rholimβ→1​(1−β)Jβ∗​(i)=ρ. Mean return times can often be estimated directly, for instance through Foster–Lyapunov drift arguments on queues, which makes (5.7) checkable in applications. The explicit bound MKMKMK also controls the span of the relative value function.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the literature; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A formal proof needs discounted dynamic programming on a countable state space with compact action sets, the existence of optimal stationary policies (Theorem 2.1 (iii), which the survey cites without proof), and the strong Markov property of the controlled chain at a return time. All of these are reusable well beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The estimates (5.9) and (5.10) are elementary once (5.8) and the existence of fβf_\betafβ​ are available. The weight lies elsewhere.

  • Optimal stationary policies. The infimum defining Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ ranges over all history-dependent randomized policies. Bringing it down to a single stationary deterministic policy requires the discounted optimality equation, a measurable selection of minimizers on compact action sets, and a verification argument against arbitrary policies.
  • Restarting at τ\tauτ. (5.8) splits the discounted cost at the random time τ\tauτ. The tail must be identified with βτ\beta^\tauβτ times the discounted cost from state 000. This is the strong Markov property for the process built by the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, applied at a stopping time that may be infinite.

Formalization scope

  • The state space is ℕ; the action space is a metric space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra. The model CMP carries compact nonempty U(i)U(i)U(i), a nonnegative measurable cost, and continuity of c(i,⋅)c(i,\cdot)c(i,⋅) and P(j∣i,⋅)P(j\mid i,\cdot)P(j∣i,⋅) on U(i)U(i)U(i), the standing assumptions of §5.
  • Policies are history-dependent, randomized and admissible. The path measure is Mathlib's Kernel.trajMeasure. Jβ∗J^*_\betaJβ∗​ is an infimum over all such policies, not over Markov or stationary policies only.
  • Costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. hβh_\betahβ​ is the difference of the real parts of Jβ∗(i)J^*_\beta(i)Jβ∗​(i) and Jβ∗(0)J^*_\beta(0)Jβ∗​(0). This is exact here because bounded cost gives Jβ∗≤M/(1−β)<∞J^*_\beta\le M/(1-\beta)<\inftyJβ∗​≤M/(1−β)<∞.
  • Explicit choices:
    • The bounded-cost hypothesis c≤Mc\le Mc≤M on admissible pairs is a binder of every §5.1 statement. It is the section's standing assumption, and without it the theorem is false.
    • τ\tauτ counts from t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and takes values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, so (5.7) applies from i=0i=0i=0 and forces τ<∞\tau<\inftyτ<∞ almost surely; βτ=0\beta^\tau=0βτ=0 on {τ=∞}\{\tau=\infty\}{τ=∞}.
    • The typo βn\beta^nβn in (5.8) is read as βt\beta^tβt.
    • K≥1K\ge1K≥1 in (5.10) is not assumed; it follows from (5.7).
  • Theorem 2.1 is stated in the survey for Borel models under Assumptions 2.1–2.3. Here it is posed in the countable model, where those assumptions follow from the §5 continuity and compactness assumptions.
  • The goal's bound BBB is quantified before β\betaβ and iii. A per-β\betaβ or per-state bound would be trivial, since every hβ(i)h_\beta(i)hβ​(i) is a finite number.
  • Welcome contributions include discounted dynamic programming on countable state spaces, the strong Markov property for trajMeasure, and return-time estimates.

Selected references

  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2) (1993) 282–344. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
  • C. Derman, On sequential decisions and Markov chains, Management Sci. 9 (1962) 16–24. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.16
  • C. Derman, A. F. Veinott Jr., A solution to a countable system of equations arising in Markovian decision processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 38 (1967) 582–584 (cited as [43] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
  • S. M. Ross, Non-discounted denumerable Markovian decision models, Ann. Math. Statist. 39 (1968) 412–423 (cited as [147] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
  • S. M. Ross, Introduction to Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Academic Press, 1983 (cited as [150] in the survey, https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018).
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey 3: A Uniform Lower Bound on the Probability of Moving to State 0 Reduces Average Cost to Discounted CostResearch Paper

Why average cost is a control problem

A controller acting over an indefinite horizon must decide whether a lower cost today is worth a higher cost later. Average cost measures the expected expenditure per stage as the horizon grows. It is appropriate when operation has no natural terminal date, but its limiting definition makes it difficult to compute an optimal policy directly. Discounted cost assigns less weight to distant stages and has a more direct optimality equation. Arapostathis, Borkar, Fernández-Gaucherand, Ghosh and Marcus survey these criteria for controlled Markov processes and state a condition under which solving one discounted problem yields a solution to an average-cost problem (Arapostathis et al., 1993, §5.1).

The condition is a common lower bound on the one-step probability of moving to a distinguished state. Ross's reduction, reported as Theorem 5.6 of the survey, uses that bound to define a new transition law and a specific discount factor. The survey's theorem states the reduction informally; its proof specifies the transformed law, the optimality equation and the resulting average-cost policy. Those claims are the targets of this mission (Arapostathis et al., 1993, pp. 303–304).

Controlled process and criteria

The state space is S={0,1,2,…}S=\{0,1,2,\ldots\}S={0,1,2,…}. In state iii, the controller may choose an action aaa from a nonempty compact set U(i)U(i)U(i) in a metric action space. Choosing aaa incurs the one-stage cost c(i,a)≥0c(i,a)\ge0c(i,a)≥0 and moves the state to jjj with probability P(j∣i,a)P(j\mid i,a)P(j∣i,a). The cost is measurable, and for each fixed i,ji,ji,j its value and P(j∣i,a)P(j\mid i,a)P(j∣i,a) vary continuously with aaa on U(i)U(i)U(i). Section 5 imposes these state and continuity conventions; §5.1 additionally assumes the costs are bounded (Arapostathis et al., 1993, pp. 284–288, 299, 301).

An admissible policy π\piπ chooses a probability law for the next action from the entire observed history, and assigns probability one to admissible actions. A stationary deterministic policy is a map fff with f(i)∈U(i)f(i)\in U(i)f(i)∈U(i); it always takes action f(i)f(i)f(i) in state iii. These are distinct classes. Let JN(i,π)J_N(i,\pi)JN​(i,π) be expected cost over the first NNN stages from iii, and let Jβ(i,π)J_\beta(i,\pi)Jβ​(i,π) be expected cost when stage ttt is weighted by βt\beta^tβt, where 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1. The average-cost criterion is J(i,π)=lim sup⁡N→∞JN(i,π)/NJ(i,\pi)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}J_N(i,\pi)/NJ(i,π)=limsupN→∞​JN​(i,π)/N. The optimal values J∗(i)J^*(i)J∗(i) and Jβ∗(i)J_\beta^*(i)Jβ∗​(i) are infima over all admissible policies, including randomized and history-dependent ones (Arapostathis et al., 1993, pp. 285–287).

The average cost optimality equation, or ACOE, asks for a scalar ρ\rhoρ and a real function hhh such that, for each state iii,

ρ+h(i)=min⁡a∈U(i){c(i,a)+∑j∈SP(j∣i,a)h(j)}.\rho+h(i)=\min_{a\in U(i)}\left\{c(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S}P(j\mid i,a)h(j)\right\}.ρ+h(i)=a∈U(i)min​⎩⎨⎧​c(i,a)+j∈S∑​P(j∣i,a)h(j)⎭⎬⎫​.

The minimum is attained. The survey's verification theorem identifies ρ\rhoρ with the optimal average cost when the terminal contribution of h(Xt)h(X_t)h(Xt​) vanishes after division by ttt (Arapostathis et al., 1993, p. 299, (5.1), Theorem 5.1).

Formalization targets

The reduction

Assume that P(0∣i,a)≥αP(0\mid i,a)\ge\alphaP(0∣i,a)≥α on every admissible state-action pair for a single constant 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1. The transformed process M~\widetilde MM has the same admissible actions and costs and has transition probabilities

P~(j∣i,a)=P(j∣i,a)−α1{j=0}1−α.\widetilde P(j\mid i,a)=\frac{P(j\mid i,a)-\alpha\mathbf1_{\{j=0\}}}{1-\alpha}.P(j∣i,a)=1−αP(j∣i,a)−α1{j=0}​​.

Write J~1−α∗\widetilde J^*_{1-\alpha}J1−α∗​ for its discounted value at discount factor 1−α1-\alpha1−α. The goal states that this value is finite, a stationary deterministic discounted-optimal policy exists, and every such policy is average-cost optimal for the original process. It also identifies a constant optimal average cost for every initial state:

J∗(i)=αJ~1−α∗(0),i∈S.J^*(i)=\alpha\widetilde J^*_{1-\alpha}(0),\qquad i\in S.J∗(i)=αJ1−α∗​(0),i∈S.

The goal does not assume the average optimality that it asserts. It requires the transformed law to satisfy the displayed formula at every admissible state-action pair (Arapostathis et al., 1993, Theorem 5.6 and proof, pp. 303–304).

Supporting targets

The milestones establish that the transformed law gives a controlled Markov process, that the discounted problem has an optimal stationary deterministic policy, and that the transformed discounted value satisfies the original ACOE with ρ=αJ~1−α∗(0)\rho=\alpha\widetilde J^*_{1-\alpha}(0)ρ=αJ1−α∗​(0). The final milestone is the ACOE verification theorem needed to identify the average cost. The source gives the first two discounted claims through Theorem 2.1 and writes out the transformed equation in the proof of Theorem 5.6 (Arapostathis et al., 1993, pp. 289, 299, 304).

What the result supplies

The theorem replaces an average-cost optimization problem by one discounted problem with a prescribed discount factor and transition law. It yields a stationary deterministic policy that is optimal even when compared with every history-dependent randomized policy, and it shows that the optimal average cost is independent of the initial state. Without the common return probability, neither this particular law nor this fixed discount factor follows from the survey's argument (Arapostathis et al., 1993, Theorem 5.6).

The survey reports this as a known result of Ross rather than an open conjecture. The formalization work is to give the path measures, value functions, transformed process and verification result machine-checkable meanings. The Lean declarations here are open theorem statements awaiting proofs; compiling a statement with sorry does not establish the mathematical theorem. The policy and cost definitions can also support the other countable-state missions drawn from §5.

Difficulty

The transformed probabilities have to form a measurable stochastic kernel, preserve the action continuity assumptions and yield a controlled process with the original feasible actions and costs. The discounted value must be finite and uniformly bounded before its real form can enter the ACOE. A simple comparison of numerical optimal values is insufficient: a policy chosen in the transformed model must be shown optimal for the original model against the full policy class. The verification theorem also requires control of the terminal expectation of h(Xt)h(X_t)h(Xt​) for arbitrary admissible policies, rather than only the stationary policies named in its printed condition (Arapostathis et al., 1993, pp. 299–300, 304).

Formalization scope

Lean uses N\mathbb NN for the countable state space and Mathlib probability kernels for the transition and randomized decision rules. Strategic path measures are constructed from those kernels. Nonnegative expected costs and their infima live in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so an unbounded integral cannot silently become a finite real value. The transformed discounted value is converted to a real only in conclusions that also assert its finiteness. The ACOE uses real sums with explicit summability and an attained minimum. The model requires a Borel metric action space, nonempty compact action sets, measurable costs, and coordinatewise action continuity of the transition probabilities.

The source's §5.1 bounded-cost assumption is explicit in the goal and its discounted milestones. The displayed transformation needs α<1\alpha<1α<1; the paper's theorem sentence gives only α>0\alpha>0α>0, so the case α=1\alpha=1α=1 is excluded from this version. The paper prints (5.2) for stationary deterministic policies, but the proof uses it for all admissible policies to compare with J∗J^*J∗; the verification milestone takes the stronger, proof-supported hypothesis. Expectations in that condition are explicitly integrable. The converse part of Theorem 5.1 is not used and is outside this mission.

The transformed process is represented by another CMP constrained to have exactly the source's action sets, admissible costs and transition formula. A milestone poses its existence. This representation keeps the definition layer free of an unproved stochastic-kernel construction. The discount-optimal policy conclusion ranges over every stationary deterministic policy attaining the transformed discounted value, while the values themselves take infima over all admissible policies. Definitions of admissible path laws and the verification theorem are reusable contributions; proofs of the transformed kernel, stationary discounted existence and ACOE identity are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh and S. I. Marcus, Discrete-time controlled Markov processes with average cost criterion: a survey, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 31(2), 282–344, 1993. DOI: 10.1137/0331018.
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Assessing Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs: The Single-Replication Confidence Interval on the Optimality Gap Is Asymptotically ValidResearch Paper

Motivation

Most stochastic programs of practical size, such as two-stage recourse models in energy, finance or supply-chain planning, cannot be solved exactly: the expectation in the objective is a high-dimensional integral. The standard remedy is sample average approximation (SAA): replace the expectation by an average over a Monte Carlo sample and solve the resulting deterministic problem. This produces a candidate solution x^\hat xx^ but says nothing about how good it is. A decision maker needs a statistical certificate: an interval that contains the candidate's optimality gap with a prescribed probability.

Mak, Morton and Wood (Oper. Res. Lett. 24, 1999) built such a certificate from ng≥30n_g\ge 30ng​≥30 independent SAA replications, which requires solving at least 30 optimization problems. Bayraksan and Morton (preprint January 2005, published in Math. Program. 108, 2006) showed that a single replication suffices asymptotically, and gave two variants that use two replications. This mission formalizes their validity theorems.

Setting

Let ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ be a random vector with distribution μ\muμ on a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ, let X⊆RdX\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd be a set of decisions, and let f:Rd×Ξ→Rf:\mathbb R^d\times\Xi\to\mathbb Rf:Rd×Ξ→R be a cost. The stochastic program is

z∗=min⁡x∈XEf(x,ξ~).(SP)z^*=\min_{x\in X} Ef(x,\tilde\xi). \qquad\text{(SP)}z∗=x∈Xmin​Ef(x,ξ~​).(SP)

Its optimal set is X∗X^*X∗, and the optimality gap of a candidate x^∈X\hat x\in Xx^∈X is μx^=Ef(x^,ξ~)−z∗≥0\mu_{\hat x}=Ef(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-z^*\ge 0μx^​=Ef(x^,ξ~​)−z∗≥0. The paper assumes throughout:

  • (A1) f(⋅,ξ~)f(\cdot,\tilde\xi)f(⋅,ξ~​) is continuous on XXX, with probability one;
  • (A2) Esup⁡x∈Xf2(x,ξ~)<∞E\sup_{x\in X} f^2(x,\tilde\xi)<\inftyEsupx∈X​f2(x,ξ~​)<∞;
  • (A3) XXX is nonempty and compact.

Let ξ~1,ξ~2,…\tilde\xi^1,\tilde\xi^2,\dotsξ~​1,ξ~​2,… be i.i.d. copies of ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​, and write fˉn(x)=1n∑i=1nf(x,ξ~i)\bar f_n(x)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f(x,\tilde\xi^i)fˉ​n​(x)=n1​∑i=1n​f(x,ξ~​i). The SAA problem is zn∗=min⁡x∈Xfˉn(x)z_n^*=\min_{x\in X}\bar f_n(x)zn∗​=minx∈X​fˉ​n​(x) (SPn_nn​), with an optimal solution xn∗x_n^*xn∗​. The gap estimator is Gn(x^)=fˉn(x^)−zn∗G_n(\hat x)=\bar f_n(\hat x)-z_n^*Gn​(x^)=fˉ​n​(x^)−zn∗​ (display (2)), and the sample variance of the differences f(x^,ξ~i)−f(x,ξ~i)f(\hat x,\tilde\xi^i)-f(x,\tilde\xi^i)f(x^,ξ~​i)−f(x,ξ~​i) is

sn2(x)=1n−1∑i=1n[(f(x^,ξ~i)−f(x,ξ~i))−(fˉn(x^)−fˉn(x))]2,s_n^2(x)=\frac1{n-1}\sum_{i=1}^n\Big[\big(f(\hat x,\tilde\xi^i)-f(x,\tilde\xi^i)\big)-\big(\bar f_n(\hat x)-\bar f_n(x)\big)\Big]^2,sn2​(x)=n−11​i=1∑n​[(f(x^,ξ~​i)−f(x,ξ~​i))−(fˉ​n​(x^)−fˉ​n​(x))]2,

with population counterpart σx^2(x)=var⁡[f(x^,ξ~)−f(x,ξ~)]\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x)=\operatorname{var}[f(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-f(x,\tilde\xi)]σx^2​(x)=var[f(x^,ξ~​)−f(x,ξ~​)]. Finally zαz_\alphazα​ is defined by P(N(0,1)≤zα)=1−αP(N(0,1)\le z_\alpha)=1-\alphaP(N(0,1)≤zα​)=1−α.

The single replication procedure (SRP) solves (SPn_nn​) once and reports the one-sided interval [0, Gn(x^)+zαsn(xn∗)/n]\big[0,\ G_n(\hat x)+z_\alpha s_n(x_n^*)/\sqrt n\big][0, Gn​(x^)+zα​sn​(xn∗​)/n​] (display (5)). The I2RP takes the variance from a second, independent sample ξ~n+1,…,ξ~2n\tilde\xi^{n+1},\dots,\tilde\xi^{2n}ξ~​n+1,…,ξ~​2n and its own minimizer xn2∗x_n^{2*}xn2∗​. The A2RP runs the SRP on both halves of a sample of size 2n2n2n, averages the gaps and the variances as in (10), and scales by 2n\sqrt{2n}2n​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 7)

Under (A1)–(A3), for x^∈X\hat x\in Xx^∈X and 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, provided α≤1/2\alpha\le1/2α≤1/2 or σx^2(xmax⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})>0σx^2​(xmax∗​)>0 (see Formalization scope),

lim inf⁡n→∞P(μx^≤Gn(x^)+zαsn(xn∗)n)≥1−α.(6)\liminf_{n\to\infty}P\left(\mu_{\hat x}\le G_n(\hat x)+\frac{z_\alpha s_n(x_n^*)}{\sqrt n}\right)\ge 1-\alpha. \qquad(6)n→∞liminf​P(μx^​≤Gn​(x^)+n​zα​sn​(xn∗​)​)≥1−α.(6)

Consistency (Proposition 1, p. 6)

The milestones follow the paper's own proof:

  1. the uniform strong law sup⁡x∈X∣fˉn(x)−Ef(x,ξ~)∣→0\sup_{x\in X}|\bar f_n(x)-Ef(x,\tilde\xi)|\to 0supx∈X​∣fˉ​n​(x)−Ef(x,ξ~​)∣→0 w.p.1;
  2. (i) zn∗→z∗z_n^*\to z^*zn∗​→z∗ w.p.1;
  3. (ii) every limit point of {xn∗}\{x_n^*\}{xn∗​} lies in X∗X^*X∗ w.p.1;
  4. the uniform convergence sn2→σx^2s_n^2\to\sigma^2_{\hat x}sn2​→σx^2​ on XXX w.p.1;
  5. (iii) σx^2(xmin⁡∗)≤lim inf⁡nsn2(xn∗)≤lim sup⁡nsn2(xn∗)≤σx^2(xmax⁡∗)\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})\le\liminf_n s_n^2(x_n^*)\le\limsup_n s_n^2(x_n^*)\le\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})σx^2​(xmin∗​)≤liminfn​sn2​(xn∗​)≤limsupn​sn2​(xn∗​)≤σx^2​(xmax∗​) w.p.1, where xmin⁡∗x^*_{\min}xmin∗​ and xmax⁡∗x^*_{\max}xmax∗​ minimize and maximize σx^2\sigma^2_{\hat x}σx^2​ over X∗X^*X∗;
  6. the ε\varepsilonε-bound of the proof of Theorem 2: if α≤1/2\alpha\le 1/2α≤1/2 and σx^2(xmin⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})>0σx^2​(xmin∗​)>0, then for 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1 the liminf in (6) is at least Φ((1−ε)zα)\Phi((1-\varepsilon)z_\alpha)Φ((1−ε)zα​).

Companions

Theorem 3 (p. 9) and Theorem 4 (p. 10) are the same coverage statement for the I2RP and the A2RP. Three further statements are included: the negative bias Ezn∗≤z∗Ez_n^*\le z^*Ezn∗​≤z∗ of display (1), the pathwise bound Gn(x^)≥fˉn(x^)−fˉn(x)G_n(\hat x)\ge\bar f_n(\hat x)-\bar f_n(x)Gn​(x^)≥fˉ​n​(x^)−fˉ​n​(x) for x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, and the consistency lim inf⁡nsn′2≥σx^2(xmin⁡∗)\liminf_n s_n'^2\ge\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})liminfn​sn′2​≥σx^2​(xmin∗​) of the pooled variance.

Significance

Theorem 2 makes a single SAA solve enough for an asymptotically valid upper confidence bound on the optimality gap. It cuts the computational cost of the multiple-replication procedure by a factor of about thirty, and it needs no asymptotic normality of Gn(x^)G_n(\hat x)Gn​(x^), which typically fails when (SP) has several optimal solutions. The two-replication variants lessen the small-sample under-coverage of the SRP. The single- and two-replication estimators were later reused in sequential sampling procedures for SAA.

As far as is known, none of these results has been machine-checked. A complete formalization needs a uniform strong law of large numbers over a compact parameter set, which is a reusable result in its own right, together with the SAA consistency theory and a central-limit argument for a statistic that is not itself asymptotically normal.

Difficulty

The obvious route would be to show that Gn(x^)G_n(\hat x)Gn​(x^) is asymptotically normal and apply a standard confidence-interval argument. That fails: zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ is a minimum of sample averages, and when X∗X^*X∗ is not a singleton its limit law is the law of a minimum of correlated Gaussians, not a Gaussian. The paper's argument has to bound the coverage from below without that limit law. It also needs to control the sample variance at a random, non-convergent minimizer xn∗x_n^*xn∗​, which only accumulates on X∗X^*X∗. The uniform strong law (Rubinstein–Shapiro, Lemma A1) on which both consistency statements rest is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses these conventions:

  • Decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). The paper's Rn\mathbb R^nRn is renamed Rd\mathbb R^dRd because nnn is the sample size.
  • μ\muμ is a probability measure on Ξ\XiΞ (the law of ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​), and Ef(x,ξ~)Ef(x,\tilde\xi)Ef(x,ξ~​) is the Bochner integral ∫f(x,⋅) dμ\int f(x,\cdot)\,d\mu∫f(x,⋅)dμ.
  • The sample is one infinite i.i.d. sequence ξ : ℕ → Ω → Ξ on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P), 0-based: ξ~i\tilde\xi^iξ~​i is ξ (i-1). The second sample of Theorems 3–4 is ξ n, …, ξ (2n-1), exactly as printed, and the A2RP's "random" partition is this fixed one, which has the same joint law.
  • Estimators are functions of a sample path. z∗z^*z∗ and zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ are infima of images of XXX, and X∗X^*X∗ is an argmin set.
  • Probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued, so the liminf in (6) is genuine. Proposition 1 (iii) is stated in its equivalent ε\varepsilonε-form, which avoids real liminf/limsup junk values.
  • zαz_\alphazα​ is any real with cdf (gaussianReal 0 1) zα = 1 - α.

Standing assumptions and pins. Every goal-level statement carries (A1)–(A3) and the i.i.d. hypothesis. Three hypotheses are made explicit that the paper leaves implicit:

  1. f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅) is measurable for each xxx ("f(x,ξ~)f(x,\tilde\xi)f(x,ξ~​) is a random variable");
  2. xn∗x_n^*xn∗​ is a measurable map that, almost surely, lies in XXX and minimizes fˉn\bar f_nfˉ​n​ over XXX on the same sample;
  3. (A2) is read as "sup⁡x∈Xf2(x,⋅)\sup_{x\in X}f^2(x,\cdot)supx∈X​f2(x,⋅) has an integrable majorant", which avoids proving that the supremum is measurable.

At n≤1n\le 1n≤1 the factors 1/n1/n1/n, 1/(n−1)1/(n-1)1/(n−1) and 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ evaluate to Lean's 000; every coverage statement is a liminf and ignores them.

Several encodings would trivialize the statement, and all are ruled out. The minimizer xn∗x_n^*xn∗​ must minimize the SAA problem of its own sample: a free xn∗x_n^*xn∗​, or one fitted to the other sample, would change the theorem. The second sample must not be replaced by an independent sequence. The quantile must not be pinned through an sInf. Positivity of σx^2(xmin⁡∗)\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\min})σx^2​(xmin∗​) is a hypothesis only of the ε\varepsilonε-bound, as on p. 8.

One correction of the paper. Theorems 2 and 4 are stated for every 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, but for α>1/2\alpha>1/2α>1/2 the paper's argument (replace xmin⁡∗x^*_{\min}xmin∗​ by xmax⁡∗x^*_{\max}xmax∗​) needs σx^2(xmax⁡∗)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x^*_{\max})>0σx^2​(xmax∗​)>0, and without it both statements are false: for X=[−1,1]X=[-1,1]X=[−1,1], f(x,ξ)=x2−2xξf(x,\xi)=x^2-2x\xif(x,ξ)=x2−2xξ, ξ~∼N(0,1)\tilde\xi\sim N(0,1)ξ~​∼N(0,1), x^=0\hat x=0x^=0 and α=0.9\alpha=0.9α=0.9, the SRP coverage tends to about 0.0100.0100.010 and the A2RP coverage to e−2zα2≈0.037e^{-2z_\alpha^2}\approx0.037e−2zα2​≈0.037, both below 0.10.10.1. The Lean goal and Theorem 4 therefore carry the hypothesis "α≤1/2\alpha\le1/2α≤1/2, or σx^2(x)>0\sigma^2_{\hat x}(x)>0σx^2​(x)>0 for some x∈X∗x\in X^*x∈X∗". Theorem 3 is stated as printed.

Contributions are welcome at every level. The most reusable one is the uniform strong law of large numbers for Carathéodory integrands on a compact set with an integrable envelope, which also serves other SAA consistency results.

Selected references

  • G. Bayraksan, D. P. Morton, Assessing Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs, preprint (January 26, 2005); published in Math. Program. 108 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0720-x
  • W. K. Mak, D. P. Morton, R. K. Wood, Monte Carlo bounding techniques for determining solution quality in stochastic programs, Oper. Res. Lett. 24 (1999) 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(98)00054-6
  • R. Y. Rubinstein, A. Shapiro, Discrete Event Systems: Sensitivity Analysis and Stochastic Optimization by the Score Function Method, Wiley, 1993 (Lemma A1, p. 67; Theorem A1, p. 69).
  • A. Shapiro, Monte Carlo sampling methods, in: Handbooks in OR & MS 10, Stochastic Programming, Elsevier, 2003, 353–425. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)10006-0
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling a Multi Class Queue with Many Exponential Servers: Asymptotic Optimality in Heavy Traffic: The HJB-Based Preemptive Policy Is Asymptotically Optimal Among Work-Conserving PoliciesResearch Paper

Motivation

Large call centers route several types of customers to a common pool of agents. When the pool is large and highly utilized, the relevant asymptotic regime is the quality-and-efficiency-driven (QED) or Halfin–Whitt regime (Halfin & Whitt 1981). The number of servers nnn grows while the offered load stays within O(n)O(\sqrt n)O(n​) of nnn. Waiting is then neither negligible nor overwhelming (Gans, Koole & Mandelbaum 2003).

Which class should a freed agent serve next? Exact optimization of a multi-class many-server queue with abandonment is intractable. The standard route is to solve a limiting diffusion control problem and translate its optimal control back into a policy for the queue. Atar, Mandelbaum and Reiman (Ann. Appl. Probab. 2004) carried this out for kkk customer classes, exponential service and abandonment, general renewal arrivals and general convex-type holding costs. They proved that the translated policy is asymptotically optimal. This mission formalizes that result for the preemptive policy.

Context:

  • Harrison & Zeevi (2004) studied the same multi-class many-server problem.
  • Bell & Williams (2001) proved asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy for a two-server system in conventional heavy traffic.
  • The present paper is the first to cover the QED regime with general costs and abandonment.

Setting

There are k≥1k\ge1k≥1 customer classes and nnn identical servers.

Primitives.

  • Arrivals. Class-iii customers arrive according to a renewal process AinA^n_iAin​ with interarrival times Uˇi(j)/λin\check U_i(j)/\lambda^n_iUˇi​(j)/λin​. Here the Uˇi(j)\check U_i(j)Uˇi​(j) are i.i.d., positive, of mean one and squared coefficient of variation CU,i2C^2_{U,i}CU,i2​.
  • Service. Service times are exponential with rate μin\mu^n_iμin​, represented by Poisson processes SinS^n_iSin​.
  • Abandonment. Waiting customers abandon at rate θin≥0\theta^n_i\ge0θin​≥0, represented by Poisson processes RinR^n_iRin​.

State. Xin(t)X^n_i(t)Xin​(t) is the number of class-iii customers in the system, Ψin(t)\Psi^n_i(t)Ψin​(t) the number in service and Φin=Xin−Ψin\Phi^n_i=X^n_i-\Psi^n_iΦin​=Xin​−Ψin​ the number waiting. The dynamics are

Xin(t)=Xi0,n+Ain(t)−Rin(∫0tΦin)−Sin(∫0tΨin),Ψn,Φn∈Z+k,∑iΨin≤n.X^n_i(t)=X^{0,n}_i+A^n_i(t)-R^n_i\Big(\int_0^t\Phi^n_i\Big)-S^n_i\Big(\int_0^t\Psi^n_i\Big),\qquad \Psi^n,\Phi^n\in\mathbb Z^k_+,\quad \textstyle\sum_i\Psi^n_i\le n .Xin​(t)=Xi0,n​+Ain​(t)−Rin​(∫0t​Φin​)−Sin​(∫0t​Ψin​),Ψn,Φn∈Z+k​,∑i​Ψin​≤n.

Policies.

  • A scheduling control policy (SCP) is the process Ψn\Psi^nΨn.
  • It is admissible if it does not anticipate the future beyond the time of the next arrival: past information is independent of future primitive increments.
  • It is work-conserving if no server idles while customers wait: (1⋅Xn−n)+=1⋅Φn(\mathbb 1\cdot X^n-n)^+=\mathbb 1\cdot\Phi^n(1⋅Xn−n)+=1⋅Φn.

Scaling and cost. In the QED scaling n−1λin→λin^{-1}\lambda^n_i\to\lambda_in−1λin​→λi​ with ∑iλi/μi=1\sum_i\lambda_i/\mu_i=1∑i​λi​/μi​=1. With ρi=λi/μi\rho_i=\lambda_i/\mu_iρi​=λi​/μi​ the centred processes are X^n=n−1/2(Xn−ρn)\hat X^n=n^{-1/2}(X^n-\rho n)X^n=n−1/2(Xn−ρn), Φ^n=n−1/2Φn\hat\Phi^n=n^{-1/2}\Phi^nΦ^n=n−1/2Φn and Ψ^n=n−1/2(Ψn−ρn)\hat\Psi^n=n^{-1/2}(\Psi^n-\rho n)Ψ^n=n−1/2(Ψn−ρn). The cost is

Cn=E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^n(t),Ψ^n(t)) dt.C^n=E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^n(t),\hat\Psi^n(t))\,dt .Cn=E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^n(t),Ψ^n(t))dt.

The limiting control problem. It controls

X(t)=x+rW(t)+∫0tb(X(s),u(s)) ds,b(x,u)=ℓ+(μ−θ)(1⋅x)+u−μx,X(t)=x+rW(t)+\int_0^t b(X(s),u(s))\,ds,\qquad b(x,u)=\ell+(\mu-\theta)(\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u-\mu x,X(t)=x+rW(t)+∫0t​b(X(s),u(s))ds,b(x,u)=ℓ+(μ−θ)(1⋅x)+u−μx,

where the control uuu takes values in the simplex Sk\mathbb S^kSk and WWW is a kkk-dimensional Brownian motion. The data are ri=(λiCU,i2+λi)1/2r_i=(\lambda_iC^2_{U,i}+\lambda_i)^{1/2}ri​=(λi​CU,i2​+λi​)1/2 and ℓi=λ^i−ρiμ^i\ell_i=\hat\lambda_i-\rho_i\hat\mu_iℓi​=λ^i​−ρi​μ^​i​. Its value V(x)V(x)V(x) is the infimum of E∫0∞e−γtL(X,u) dtE\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}L(X,u)\,dtE∫0∞​e−γtL(X,u)dt, with L(x,u)=L~((1⋅x)+u,x−(1⋅x)+u)L(x,u)=\tilde L((\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u,x-(\mathbb 1\cdot x)^+u)L(x,u)=L~((1⋅x)+u,x−(1⋅x)+u).

HJB equation and the proposed policy. The HJB equation is 12∑iri2∂iif+H(x,Df)−γf=0\tfrac12\sum_ir_i^2\partial_{ii}f+H(x,Df)-\gamma f=021​∑i​ri2​∂ii​f+H(x,Df)−γf=0 with H(x,p)=inf⁡u∈Sk[b(x,u)⋅p+L(x,u)]H(x,p)=\inf_{u\in\mathbb S^k}[b(x,u)\cdot p+L(x,u)]H(x,p)=infu∈Sk​[b(x,u)⋅p+L(x,u)]. Let hhh be a measurable selection of its minimizers. The proposed preemptive policy (P-SCP) sets the queue vector to Θ[(1⋅Xn−n)+h(X^n)]\Theta[(\mathbb 1\cdot X^n-n)^+h(\hat X^n)]Θ[(1⋅Xn−n)+h(X^n)], an integer rounding, and falls back to a static priority rule when that is infeasible.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2(i)

For a Cpol2C^2_{\mathrm{pol}}Cpol2​ solution fff of the HJB equation, a measurable minimizer selection hhh, and initial states with X^0,n→x\hat X^{0,n}\to xX^0,n→x:

lim⁡n→∞E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^tn,∗,Ψ^tn,∗) dt  ≤  lim inf⁡n→∞E∫0∞e−γtL~(Φ^tn,Ψ^tn) dt\lim_{n\to\infty}E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^{n,*}_t,\hat\Psi^{n,*}_t)\,dt\;\le\;\liminf_{n\to\infty}E\int_0^\infty e^{-\gamma t}\tilde L(\hat\Phi^n_t,\hat\Psi^n_t)\,dtn→∞lim​E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^tn,∗​,Ψ^tn,∗​)dt≤n→∞liminf​E∫0∞​e−γtL~(Φ^tn​,Ψ^tn​)dt

This holds for every sequence of work-conserving admissible SCPs, and the left-hand limit exists and is finite. No constants are hard-coded.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof:

  • on the diffusion side, Proposition 2 (well-posedness), Proposition 4 (stability and moment bounds), Proposition 5(i)–(ii) (growth and continuity of VVV) and Theorem 3 (VVV is the unique Cpol2C^2_{\mathrm{pol}}Cpol2​ HJB solution, and an optimal Markov policy exists);
  • on the queueing side, Proposition 1 (feedback rules give admissible SCPs), Lemmas 2–3 (moment bounds), Lemma 4(i)–(ii) (FCLT for the primitives and the fluid limit (Ψˉn,Φˉn)⇒(ρ,0)(\bar\Psi^n,\bar\Phi^n)\Rightarrow(\rho,0)(Ψˉn,Φˉn)⇒(ρ,0)), and Theorem 4(i)–(ii): lim inf⁡≥V(x)\liminf\ge V(x)liminf≥V(x) always, and lim sup⁡≤V(x)\limsup\le V(x)limsup≤V(x) under condition (49).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2(i) justifies using the diffusion control problem as a design tool for multi-class many-server systems. The policy is explicit given hhh, and it is optimal in the limit against all non-anticipating work-conserving policies, including those that use the full history and the time of the next arrival. The proof also identifies the limit cost with V(x)V(x)V(x).

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, with some steps (Proposition 1, the principle of optimality, the time-change and martingale limit theorems) given as sketches or citations. No part of it is machine-checked. A formalization requires:

  • a counting-process model of the queue;
  • a careful definition of non-anticipation;
  • a pathwise controlled SDE;
  • classical solvability of a semilinear elliptic HJB equation on Rk\mathbb R^kRk;
  • a weak-convergence argument in Skorokhod space.

Each of these is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would show that X^n\hat X^nX^n converges to the controlled diffusion and pass the costs to the limit. This fails for two reasons:

  • the comparison class contains arbitrary non-Markov, history-dependent policies, so the queue does not converge to a single controlled diffusion;
  • the optimal selector hhh is in general discontinuous (for linear costs it is), so the proposed policy is not a continuous function of the state.

The proof instead compares every policy with the HJB solution through Itô's formula on the prelimit processes. This needs:

  • uniform moment bounds;
  • tightness of the integral processes;
  • the convergence of stochastic integrals of Kurtz and Protter;
  • and, for the proposed policy, the fact that the rounding Θ\ThetaΘ and the priority fallback perturb the minimizer by O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2).

Existence of a classical HJB solution on all of Rk\mathbb R^kRk, with only Hölder-continuous costs and polynomial growth, rests on a bounded-domain existence theorem for fully nonlinear elliptic equations.

Formalization scope

The Lean development commits to the following conventions.

  • Indexing and norms. Classes are Fin k with k≥1k\ge1k≥1; paper class iii is index i−1i-1i−1, so "class kkk" (highest priority, rounding remainder of Θ\ThetaΘ) is the last index. Vectors are Fin k → ℝ and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the paper's ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm; the paper's ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣ on vectors is read the same way.
  • Probability space and paths. All systems share one complete probability space. Time is real and every condition is for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. The paper's "without loss" path regularity (finite arrival counts, Poisson paths Z+\mathbb Z_+Z+​-valued, nondecreasing and càdlàg) holds for every ω\omegaω.
  • Poisson processes are defined by independent Poisson increments; rate 000 gives the zero process.
  • Policies. A policy is a pair of real processes (Ψn,Xn)(\Psi^n,X^n)(Ψn,Xn) with integer values. Admissibility is Definition 2 verbatim, with the future σ\sigmaσ-field built from the next arrival time τin(t)\tau^n_i(t)τin​(t). Work conservation is (18).
  • Costs and value are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and lim⁡\limlim/lim inf⁡\liminfliminf are taken there. The integrands are nonnegative under work conservation.
  • Admissible systems range over sample spaces Ω : Type (universe 0). "Complete filtered probability space" means PPP complete with all null sets in F0\mathcal F_0F0​. Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal per coordinate, with independence and the (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​)-Brownian property stated explicitly. VVV is the infimum over systems and their controlled processes.
  • Discount rate. γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 is a hypothesis; the paper leaves it implicit.
  • Initial states are integer vectors X0,n∈Z+kX^{0,n}\in\mathbb Z^k_+X0,n∈Z+k​ with n−1/2(X0,n−ρn)→xn^{-1/2}(X^{0,n}-\rho n)\to xn−1/2(X0,n−ρn)→x. The literal "X^0,n∈n−1/2Zk\hat X^{0,n}\in n^{-1/2}\mathbb Z^kX^0,n∈n−1/2Zk" would require ρin∈Z\rho_in\in\mathbb Zρi​n∈Z. Assumption 1(ii) is not imposed: each policy chooses its own initial split.
  • Lemma 3 is stated for all nnn beyond a threshold that depends on the sequence, with constants c,mˉc,\bar mc,mˉ chosen before xxx and the sequence. The printed all-nnn bound with ccc independent of xxx fails when the early terms X^0,n\hat X^{0,n}X^0,n are large.
  • Weak convergence to a continuous limit uses the coupling form CouplingConverges of the published BellWilliams2001.ThresholdPolicy.Paths; convergence to a deterministic limit is UocInProb.

The goal hypothesizes fff and hhh with the pointwise identity b(x,h(x))⋅Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x))b(x,h(x))\cdot Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x))b(x,h(x))⋅Df(x)+L(x,h(x))=H(x,Df(x)) for all xxx. An arbitrary "optimal Markov control policy" may differ from a minimizer selection on the Lebesgue-null lattice where X^n\hat X^nX^n lives, and that formalization would make the goal false. Restricting the comparators to feedback, Markov or nonpreemptive policies, fixing kkk, dropping abandonment, specializing to Poisson arrivals or linear costs, or imposing a common initial split would each trivialize or weaken the statement and is ruled out.

Not formalized:

  • Lemma 4(iii) (tightness);
  • Lemma 5 (Kurtz–Protter, which needs semimartingale theory absent from Mathlib);
  • Lemma 6 (convergence of Stieltjes integrals at limit points);
  • Proposition 5(iii);
  • the nonpreemptive results, Theorem 2(ii)–(iii).

Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and especially on infrastructure: Poisson and renewal processes, functional central limit theorems in Skorokhod space, classical solvability of elliptic HJB equations, and measurable selection of minimizers.

Selected references

  • R. Atar, A. Mandelbaum, M. I. Reiman, Scheduling a multi class queue with many exponential servers: asymptotic optimality in heavy traffic, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14(3), 2004. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0407058
  • S. Halfin, W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for queues with many exponential servers, Oper. Res. 29(3), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • N. Gans, G. Koole, A. Mandelbaum, Telephone call centers: tutorial, review, and research prospects, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag. 5(2), 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.2.79.16071
  • J. M. Harrison, A. Zeevi, Dynamic scheduling of a multiclass queue in the Halfin–Whitt heavy traffic regime, Oper. Res. 52(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0109
  • S. L. Bell, R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers in heavy traffic with resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Ann. Appl. Probab. 11(3), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015345343
  • T. G. Kurtz, P. Protter, Weak limit theorems for stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations, Ann. Probab. 19(3), 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990334
16 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model 1: The Decomposition Policy Is Optimal for Discounted CostsResearch Paper

Motivation

Distribution systems often move stock in two stages. A depot orders from an outside supplier and ships to a retail outlet, where customer demand arrives and unmet demand is backordered. Stock held anywhere costs money, a shortage at the outlet costs more, and each order carries a fixed charge. The basic question is what ordering and shipping rule minimizes total cost.

Clark and Scarf (Management Science 6, 1960) showed that over a finite planning horizon this two-echelon problem decomposes. The outlet solves its own single-location problem, and the depot solves a second single-location problem in which the outlet's shortfall is charged through an induced penalty cost. Federgruen and Zipkin (Operations Research 32(4), 1984) carried the decomposition to the infinite horizon. In the infinite-horizon problems the induced penalty becomes stationary and explicit, which makes the system computable with single-location tools. This mission covers the discounted-cost half of that paper (§§1–2).

Timeline:

  • 1960: Clark and Scarf, finite-horizon decomposition, with a nonstationary penalty P^n\hat P_nP^n​ built from the outlet's optimal cost functions.
  • 1963: Iglehart (Management Science 9) proved, for the single-location discounted problem, that the finite-horizon value functions converge uniformly and that an (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policy is optimal.
  • 1984: Federgruen and Zipkin combine the two results and prove that a stationary policy built from the decomposition is optimal for the infinite-horizon discounted and average-cost problems.

Setting

Time is discrete. The cost data are a fixed order cost KKK, an order cost rate cdc^dcd, a shipment cost rate crc^rcr, a holding cost rate hdh^dhd on all system stock, an extra holding cost rate hrh^rhr at the outlet, and a backorder penalty rate prp^rpr; all are positive. The discount factor α\alphaα satisfies 0≤α<10 \le \alpha < 10≤α<1, shipments take lll periods and orders take LLL periods. One-period demands are independent copies of a nonnegative continuous random variable uuu with mean μ<∞\mu < \inftyμ<∞, and u(i)u^{(i)}u(i) denotes the sum of iii copies.

The state is (y^,vd,xr)(\hat y, v^d, x^r)(y^​,vd,xr):

  • y^=(y1,…,yL)\hat y = (y^1, \dots, y^L)y^​=(y1,…,yL) lists the outstanding orders, yiy^iyi placed iii periods ago;
  • vdv^dvd is the depot's echelon inventory (its own stock plus xrx^rxr);
  • xrx^rxr is the outlet's stock plus shipments in transit.

An action is an order y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 and a shipment z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 with xr+z≤vd+yLx^r + z \le v^d + y^Lxr+z≤vd+yL. With demand uuu, the next state is ((y,y1,…,yL−1),vd+yL−u,xr+z−u)((y, y^1, \dots, y^{L-1}), v^d + y^L - u, x^r + z - u)((y,y1,…,yL−1),vd+yL−u,xr+z−u). The one-period cost is

cd(y)+hd(vd+yL)+crz+R(xr+z),c^d(y) + h^d(v^d + y^L) + c^r z + R(x^r + z),cd(y)+hd(vd+yL)+crz+R(xr+z),

where cd(y)=K+cdyc^d(y) = K + c^d ycd(y)=K+cdy for y>0y > 0y>0, cd(0)=0c^d(0) = 0cd(0)=0, and

R(x)=αl{−hd(x−lμ)+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+}.R(x) = \alpha^l\{-h^d(x - l\mu) + p^r E[u^{(l+1)} - x]^+ + (h^d + h^r)E[x - u^{(l+1)}]^+\}.R(x)=αl{−hd(x−lμ)+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+}.

Bα(s∣π)B^\alpha(s \mid \pi)Bα(s∣π) is the expected total discounted cost of a policy π\piπ from state sss.

The critical number xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ minimizes (1−α)crx+R(x)(1-\alpha)c^r x + R(x)(1−α)crx+R(x). The stationary induced penalty is P(x)=0P(x) = 0P(x)=0 for x≥xr∗x \ge x^{r*}x≥xr∗ and P(x)=(1−α)cr(x−xr∗)+R(x)−R(xr∗)P(x) = (1-\alpha)c^r(x - x^{r*}) + R(x) - R(x^{r*})P(x)=(1−α)cr(x−xr∗)+R(x)−R(xr∗) otherwise. The depot problem IHαdIH^d_\alphaIHαd​ has state (y^,vd)(\hat y, v^d)(y^​,vd), action y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 and one-period cost cd(y)+hd(vd+yL)+P(vd+yL)c^d(y) + h^d(v^d + y^L) + P(v^d + y^L)cd(y)+hd(vd+yL)+P(vd+yL). The policy πα∗\pi_\alpha^*πα∗​ orders by an optimal stationary policy σd\sigma^dσd of IHαdIH^d_\alphaIHαd​ and ships z=max⁡{0,min⁡{xr∗,vd+yL}−xr}z = \max\{0, \min\{x^{r*}, v^d + y^L\} - x^r\}z=max{0,min{xr∗,vd+yL}−xr}: up to the critical number when the depot has the stock, otherwise as much as it has.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 827)

Assume αlpr≥(1−αl)hd\alpha^l p^r \ge (1-\alpha^l)h^dαlpr≥(1−αl)hd. For every state with y^≥0\hat y \ge 0y^​≥0 and xr≤vdx^r \le v^dxr≤vd, and every admissible policy π\piπ,

Bα(y^,vd,xr∣πα∗)≤Bα(y^,vd,xr∣π).B^\alpha(\hat y, v^d, x^r \mid \pi_\alpha^*) \le B^\alpha(\hat y, v^d, x^r \mid \pi).Bα(y^​,vd,xr∣πα∗​)≤Bα(y^​,vd,xr∣π).

The goal leaves the form of σd\sigma^dσd open: any optimal stationary depot policy will do, and no (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) structure is assumed.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's own route. Write g^n\hat g_ng^​n​, gnrg_n^rgnr​, g^nd\hat g_n^dg^​nd​, gndg_n^dgnd​ for the nnn-period optimal costs of the system, of the outlet, of the depot with penalties P^n\hat P_nP^n​, and of the depot with penalty PPP.

  • Eq. (4): g^n=g^nd+gnr\hat g_n = \hat g_n^d + g_n^rg^​n​=g^​nd​+gnr​.
  • Property (e): gnr→gr=Brαg_n^r \to g^r = B^{r\alpha}gnr​→gr=Brα.
  • §2 claim (Iglehart): gnr→grg_n^r \to g^rgnr​→gr uniformly on (−∞,xr∗](-\infty, x^{r*}](−∞,xr∗].
  • Lemma 1: P^n→P\hat P_n \to PP^n​→P uniformly on R\mathbb RR.
  • Lemma 2: g^nd−gnd→0\hat g_n^d - g_n^d \to 0g^​nd​−gnd​→0 uniformly.
  • Lemma 3: g^n→gd+gr\hat g_n \to g^d + g^rg^​n​→gd+gr.
  • Lemma 4: ggg satisfies the optimality equation (8), and πα∗\pi_\alpha^*πα∗​ attains it.

Significance

The theorem shows that, under discounting, the infinite-horizon two-echelon problem is solved by two single-location problems, with a penalty PPP that is written in terms of RRR alone. Computing PPP does not require the outlet's optimal cost functions. The rest of the paper relies on this: its computational sections evaluate PPP in closed form for normal demand, and they treat several outlets by relaxation. A machine-checked version also gives an infinite-horizon decomposition theorem against which future multi-echelon formalizations can be checked.

The result was proved in 1984 and is not open. It has not been formalized. The paper's proof is short only because it cites Iglehart's convergence results and Propositions 9.12 and 9.16 of Bertsekas and Shreve (1978) for its last step, so a formal proof must also supply these.

Difficulty

The obvious argument passes to the limit in the finite-horizon decomposition (4). That fails as stated, because the depot program (3) has nonstationary penalties P^n\hat P_nP^n​, built from the outlet's optimal costs gn−1rg_{n-1}^rgn−1r​, and its value functions are not those of any stationary problem. The comparison of P^n\hat P_nP^n​ with PPP needs uniform control over the whole real line. The first few P^n−P\hat P_n - PP^n​−P are in fact unbounded, since g0r=0g_0^r = 0g0r​=0 has the wrong slope. The uniform control therefore holds only for large nnn, and the error has to be propagated through the depot recursion.

The second obstacle is that the one-period costs are unbounded in both directions: hdvh^d vhdv is negative for negative vvv. Contraction arguments for bounded costs therefore do not apply. Lower boundedness on the feasible set needs the cost relation αlpr≥(1−αl)hd\alpha^l p^r \ge (1-\alpha^l)h^dαlpr≥(1−αl)hd, and passing from the optimality equation to optimality of a policy needs the theory of models with costs bounded below.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace FZEchelon.Discounted.

  • Model. The data form a structure Model. The pipeline y^\hat yy^​ is a vector indexed by {0,…,L−1}\{0, \dots, L-1\}{0,…,L−1}, whose index kkk is the paper's yk+1y^{k+1}yk+1. For L=0L = 0L=0 the current order arrives at once.
  • Policies and cost. Time runs forward with weight αk\alpha^kαk; the paper counts periods remaining. Policies are measurable, non-anticipative, deterministic and history dependent, and they must be feasible along every demand path. BαB^\alphaBα is an extended real: the expectation of the positive part of the discounted cost sum minus that of the negative part, under the product law of the demands.
  • Finite-horizon programs. These are real infima over the feasible actions.
  • Hypotheses. Statements quantify over the physical states y^≥0\hat y \ge 0y^​≥0, xr≤vdx^r \le v^dxr≤vd. The standing assumptions of §1 are bundled in StandingAssumptions: positive costs, 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1, demand nonnegative, atomless and of finite mean. The §2 statements add α<1\alpha < 1α<1 and the cost relation, which the paper names in the proof of Theorem 1. The critical numbers xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ and xnr∗x_n^{r*}xnr∗​ enter as minimizers. The depot policy σd\sigma^dσd enters as a measurable, nonnegative stationary policy that is optimal for IHαdIH_\alpha^dIHαd​; that is the paper's definition of πα∗\pi_\alpha^*πα∗​, and its existence is Iglehart's.
  • Ruled out. Comparing πα∗\pi_\alpha^*πα∗​ only against stationary policies, or reading BαB^\alphaBα as a bare series or a truncated sum, would trivialize or change the theorem. The comparison class is all admissible history-dependent policies.
  • Corrections. Where the paper says "bounded" for every nnn (§2 claim, Lemmas 1 and 2), the statements claim boundedness only where it holds: n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, and eventually, respectively. The moderation notes give the counterexample at n=1n = 1n=1. Lemma 2 also carries the standing assumption of p. 821 that never ordering is not optimal. The statement is false without it.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs the convexity theory of the single-location newsvendor function RRR, value iteration for discounted models with costs bounded below, and the Markov property for the product measure on demand sequences. The control-system file is reusable for other inventory and queueing missions. Formalizations of Iglehart's theorem and of Bertsekas–Shreve Propositions 9.12 and 9.16 are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Federgruen, P. Zipkin, Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model, Operations Research 32(4):818–836, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • A. J. Clark, H. Scarf, Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem, Management Science 6(4):475–490, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2):259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
  • D. P. Bertsekas, S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978. https://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
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Dynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model 2: The Decomposition Policy Is Average-Cost OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Many supply chains move stock through a central warehouse to the retail locations that face customer demand. Deciding how much the warehouse should order from outside, and how much it should ship to each retailer and when, is a stochastic dynamic program whose state contains every stock level and every outstanding order. Exact solution is out of reach except for the smallest systems, so structural results that reduce such a problem to single-location problems matter in practice.

Timeline.

  • Clark and Scarf (Management Science 1960) showed that the finite-horizon, discounted problem of a serial system decomposes: an optimal policy is obtained by solving the most downstream location alone, charging its shortfalls to the upstream location through an induced penalty cost, and then solving the upstream location as a single-location problem with that penalty.
  • Iglehart (Management Science 1963, and a 1963 chapter in Multistage Inventory Models and Techniques) established the infinite-horizon theory of the single-location problem with a fixed order cost: optimality of stationary (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policies under discounted and average costs, and the convergence of value iteration.
  • Federgruen and Zipkin (Operations Research 1984) carried the decomposition to the infinite horizon for a depot and one retail outlet, under discounted costs (Theorem 1) and under the average-cost criterion (Theorem 2). This mission is about the average-cost case, §3 of that paper.

Setting

Time is divided into periods. A depot orders from an outside supplier with lead time L≥0L \ge 0L≥0 and supplies a retail outlet with shipment lead time l≥0l \ge 0l≥0. The demand uuu in each period is a nonnegative random variable with law ν\nuν and finite mean μ\muμ; demands in different periods are independent and identically distributed. Unmet demand at the outlet is backordered.

The state is (y~,vd,xr)(\tilde y, v^d, x^r)(y~​,vd,xr):

  • y~=(y1,…,yL)\tilde y = (y^1,\dots,y^L)y~​=(y1,…,yL) lists the orders placed 1,…,L1,\dots,L1,…,L periods ago;
  • vdv^dvd is the depot's echelon inventory, its own stock plus the outlet's inventory position;
  • xrx^rxr is the outlet's inventory position, its stock plus shipments in transit.

In each period the decision is an order y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 and a shipment z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 with xr+z≤vd+yLx^r + z \le v^d + y^Lxr+z≤vd+yL, where yLy^LyL is the order arriving now. The state then moves to ((y,y1,…,yL−1), vd+yL−u, xr+z−u)((y, y^1,\dots,y^{L-1}),\, v^d + y^L - u,\, x^r + z - u)((y,y1,…,yL−1),vd+yL−u,xr+z−u).

Costs are a fixed order cost KKK, proportional order and shipment rates cdc^dcd and crc^rcr, a holding rate hdh^dhd on system inventory, an extra holding rate hrh^rhr at the outlet and a backorder penalty rate prp^rpr. After the paper's accounting transformation, the one-period cost is

cd(y)+D(vd+yL)+crz+R(xr+z),c^d(y) + D(v^d + y^L) + c^r z + R(x^r + z),cd(y)+D(vd+yL)+crz+R(xr+z),

with cd(y)=K+cdyc^d(y) = K + c^d ycd(y)=K+cdy for y>0y > 0y>0 and cd(0)=0c^d(0) = 0cd(0)=0, D(v)=hdvD(v) = h^d vD(v)=hdv, and, at α=1\alpha = 1α=1,

R(x)=−hd(x−lμ)+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+,R(x) = -h^d(x - l\mu) + p^r E[u^{(l+1)} - x]^+ + (h^d + h^r) E[x - u^{(l+1)}]^+ ,R(x)=−hd(x−lμ)+prE[u(l+1)−x]++(hd+hr)E[x−u(l+1)]+,

where u(l+1)u^{(l+1)}u(l+1) is the demand over l+1l + 1l+1 periods. The critical number xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ is a minimizer of RRR. The stationary induced penalty is P(x)=R(x)−R(xr∗)P(x) = R(x) - R(x^{r*})P(x)=R(x)−R(xr∗) for x<xr∗x < x^{r*}x<xr∗ and 000 otherwise.

For a policy π\piπ and initial state sss, Bn(s∣π)B_n(s \mid \pi)Bn​(s∣π) is the expected cost of the first nnn periods and B(s∣π)=lim sup⁡nBn(s∣π)/nB(s \mid \pi) = \limsup_n B_n(s \mid \pi)/nB(s∣π)=limsupn​Bn​(s∣π)/n is the average cost. Problem IH asks for a policy minimizing B(s∣⋅)B(s\mid\cdot)B(s∣⋅) from every state. The depot problem IHd^dd has states (y~,vd)(\tilde y, v^d)(y~​,vd), orders y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 and one-period cost cd(y)+D(vd+yL)+P(vd+yL)c^d(y) + D(v^d + y^L) + P(v^d + y^L)cd(y)+D(vd+yL)+P(vd+yL). Its minimal average cost is ada^dad. The outlet problem has states xrx^rxr, shipments z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 and one-period cost crz+R(xr+z)c^r z + R(x^r + z)crz+R(xr+z). The policy π∗\pi^*π∗ orders by an optimal stationary policy of IHd^dd and ships z=max⁡(0,min⁡(xr∗,vd+yL)−xr)z = \max(0, \min(x^{r*}, v^d + y^L) - x^r)z=max(0,min(xr∗,vd+yL)−xr): up to the critical number if the depot has the stock, otherwise as much as it has.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 828)

With α=1\alpha = 1α=1 and cd=cr=0c^d = c^r = 0cd=cr=0, the policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is measurable and feasible from every physical state, and for every such state sss and every measurable feasible policy π\piπ,

B(s∣π∗)≤B(s∣π).B(s \mid \pi^*) \le B(s \mid \pi).B(s∣π∗)≤B(s∣π).

Milestones

  • Property (f) (p. 824): gnr(x)/n→Br(x)=crμ+R(xr∗)g^r_n(x)/n \to B^r(x) = c^r\mu + R(x^{r*})gnr​(x)/n→Br(x)=crμ+R(xr∗) for the outlet program gnrg^r_ngnr​.
  • Eq. (4) (p. 823), for 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1: g^n(y~,vd,xr)=g^nd(y~,vd)+gnr(xr)\hat g_n(\tilde y, v^d, x^r) = \hat g^d_n(\tilde y, v^d) + g^r_n(x^r)g^​n​(y~​,vd,xr)=g^​nd​(y~​,vd)+gnr​(xr).
  • §3 claims (p. 828): with cr=0c^r = 0cr=0, xr∗x^{r*}xr∗ is the critical number of every period, gnr(x)=nR(xr∗)g^r_n(x) = nR(x^{r*})gnr​(x)=nR(xr∗) for x≤xr∗x \le x^{r*}x≤xr∗, P^n=P\hat P_n = PP^n​=P, g^nd=gnd\hat g^d_n = g^d_ng^​nd​=gnd​ and g^n=gn\hat g_n = g_ng^​n​=gn​.
  • §3 display (p. 828): g^n(y~,vd,xr)/n→a=ad+R(xr∗)\hat g_n(\tilde y, v^d, x^r)/n \to a = a^d + R(x^{r*})g^​n​(y~​,vd,xr)/n→a=ad+R(xr∗).
  • Lemma 5 (p. 828): B(s∣π∗)=aB(s \mid \pi^*) = aB(s∣π∗)=a.
  • Proof of Theorem 2 (p. 828): g^n(s)≤Bn(s∣π)\hat g_n(s) \le B_n(s \mid \pi)g^​n​(s)≤Bn​(s∣π) for every measurable feasible π\piπ.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 reduces an average-cost problem with a multidimensional state to two problems with smaller states: a single-location (s,S)(s,S)(s,S)-type problem for the depot with a known convex penalty PPP, and a myopic critical-number rule for the outlet. The optimal system cost is the sum ad+ara^d + a^rad+ar of their optimal costs. The paper uses this to compute optimal policies with standard single-location software, and its §5 builds heuristics for several outlets on the same decomposition.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formal proof has to make precise what the paper leaves to "standard arguments":

  • the class of measurable history-dependent policies;
  • the expected costs of policies with unbounded one-period costs;
  • the passage from history-dependent to Markov policies;
  • the transient of π∗\pi^*π∗ when the outlet starts above its critical number.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would identify the average-cost optimal value through an average-cost optimality equation on the full state space and verify that π∗\pi^*π∗ attains it. No such equation is available here. The state space is unbounded, the one-period costs are unbounded both above and below in the state, and the depot's fixed cost makes its value functions KKK-convex rather than convex.

The paper's route avoids that equation but needs three separate facts:

  • value iteration for the whole system, divided by nnn, converges to ad+ara^d + a^rad+ar, which rests on Iglehart's convergence for the depot and on the stationarity of the penalties when cr=0c^r = 0cr=0;
  • the finite-horizon value bounds the cost of every history-dependent policy, not only of Markov ones;
  • π∗\pi^*π∗ achieves aaa from every state, including states with xr>xr∗x^r > x^{r*}xr>xr∗, where it does not ship at all until demand has brought the outlet below its critical number.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. A state is a triple in (Fin L→R)×R×R(\mathrm{Fin}\,L \to \mathbb R) \times \mathbb R \times \mathbb R(FinL→R)×R×R. For L=0L = 0L=0 the order placed now arrives at once. Time runs forward in Lean; the paper numbers periods backward. Finite-horizon value functions keep the paper's index nnn (periods remaining). Each "min" of programs (1), (2), (3), (5) is a real infimum over the constraint set.
  • Policies and costs. Policies are deterministic, history-dependent and measurable, and they must be feasible along every demand realization. BnB_nBn​ is an extended real (expected positive part minus expected negative part of each period's cost). BBB is a lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup in the extended reals, and the optimal average costs are infima in the extended reals.
  • Standing assumptions (p. 821):
    • K,hd,hr,pr>0K, h^d, h^r, p^r > 0K,hd,hr,pr>0;
    • demands i.i.d., nonnegative, without atoms ("for convenience we shall assume uuu is continuous") and with finite mean.
  • Added hypotheses.
    • States are restricted to the physical ones, y~≥0\tilde y \ge 0y~​≥0 and xr≤vdx^r \le v^dxr≤vd.
    • cd=cr=0c^d = c^r = 0cd=cr=0. The paper reduces to this case "without loss of generality", on the grounds that average proportional costs equal cdμc^d\mucdμ and crμc^r\mucrμ "under all interesting policies" (p. 827). That class is never specified, and the proofs are written for cd=cr=0c^d = c^r = 0cd=cr=0. The general-cost version is the paper's informal reduction and is not part of the goal.
    • Eq. (4) is stated for 0≤α≤10 \le \alpha \le 10≤α≤1 with K,hd,hr,pr>0K, h^d, h^r, p^r > 0K,hd,hr,pr>0 and cd,cr≥0c^d, c^r \ge 0cd,cr≥0 (so that it covers §3's case cd=cr=0c^d = c^r = 0cd=cr=0), and with the relation αlpr≥(1−αl)hd\alpha^l p^r \ge (1 - \alpha^l)h^dαlpr≥(1−αl)hd, which the paper names on p. 827; it holds automatically at α=1\alpha = 1α=1.
  • Ruling out trivial readings.
    • π∗\pi^*π∗ is built from a depot rule σd\sigma^dσd assumed optimal for IHd^dd from every depot state. Its existence is Iglehart's theorem, cited and not formalized; no (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) form is required.
    • The goal quantifies over all measurable feasible policies, and π∗\pi^*π∗'s own feasibility is a conclusion, so a vacuous policy class cannot satisfy it.
    • A sorry-free check in the workspace exhibits an instance (exponential demand) meeting every standing hypothesis other than the optimality of σd\sigma^dσd, including the existence of xr∗x^{r*}xr∗.
  • Reusable infrastructure. The definitions of history-dependent policies and of extended-real expected and average costs for controlled processes driven by i.i.d. real noise are generic, and could be reused for other inventory and queueing models. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and especially on a formal version of the Markov reduction (Dynkin–Yushkevich III.1) for this setting and on Iglehart's convergence of gnd/ng^d_n/ngnd​/n.

Selected references

  • A. Federgruen and P. Zipkin, Computational Issues in an Infinite-Horizon, Multiechelon Inventory Model, Operations Research 32(4):818–836, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • A. J. Clark and H. Scarf, Optimal Policies for a Multi-Echelon Inventory Problem, Management Science 6(4):475–490, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2):259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
  • D. L. Iglehart, Dynamic Programming and Stationary Analyses of Inventory Problems, Chapter 1 in H. Scarf, D. Gilford and M. Shelly (eds.), Multistage Inventory Models and Techniques, Stanford University Press, 1963.
  • E. B. Dynkin and A. A. Yushkevich, Controlled Markov Processes, Springer, 1979.
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
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