Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance Constraints 1: Under Normality, the E-Model Chance Constraints Are Equivalent to the Convex Program (29)Research Paper
Motivation
Chance-constrained programming replaces a linear program subject to by a problem in which some data are random and each constraint only has to hold with a prescribed probability. Charnes and Cooper introduced the idea in 1959 for scheduling heating-oil production against weather-dependent demand, and the formulation is now a standard modelling tool in operations research, finance, energy systems and engineering design (Charnes and Cooper 1959; Prékopa 1995).
A chance-constrained problem is not directly solvable: its constraints are probabilities of events that depend on the decision. The 1963 paper of Charnes and Cooper (doi:10.1287/opre.11.1.18) asks when such a problem has a deterministic equivalent, an ordinary mathematical program with the same feasible decisions and corresponding objective values, and when that equivalent is a convex program. Its first answer, for the expected-value ('E') model under linear decision rules and normality, is the subject of this mission. The resulting constraint form, a mean slack dominating standard deviations, is an early instance of the second-order-cone reformulation of individual normal chance constraints used throughout modern stochastic and robust optimization.
Timeline. 1959: Charnes and Cooper, chance-constrained programming with the heating-oil model. 1963: this paper, deterministic equivalents for the E, V and P models under linear decision rules . 1965: Miller and Wagner treat joint chance constraints with independent rows (doi:10.1287/opre.13.6.930). 1971: Prékopa's logarithmically concave measures give convexity of joint chance constraints under log-concave laws.
Setting
Let be a probability space. The data are a constant matrix with rows , a random right-hand side and random objective coefficients . A linear decision rule is an real matrix ; it chooses after is observed. Write , and .
The E-model (18) is
with one probability level per row: the constraints are row-wise, as in (3) of the paper, not a single joint constraint.
For let be the standard normal -quantile. With the moment functions (30),
the paper's deterministic program (29) in the variables , , is
Formalization targets
Goal: (18) is equivalent to the convex program (29)
Assume every is square integrable, every and integrable, and uncorrelated (), every variate normal (for every and , zero variance allowed), and . Then
Milestones, in the order of the paper
- (19a): for uncorrelated , .
- (22)–(27): with positive variance, .
- (28a)–(28b): (27) holds iff some satisfies .
- (28c)–(28d): for , that pair is equivalent to its squared form.
- Footnote ‡ to (30): .
- The convexity paragraph after (30): the feasible set of (29) is convex in .
- 'V Model' (32)–(34): under the same normal chance assumptions and square integrability of each , the chance constraints of (32) are equivalent to (33) for some ; the pair feasible set and are convex.
Significance
The result. The theorem turns a problem whose constraints are probabilities into a finite-dimensional convex program whose data are the first two moments of and the means of . The optimal rules of (18) minimize (29), whose optimal value is the negative of the maximum in (18). The slack variables separate each constraint into a "quality" part (the mean slack ) and a "risk" part ( standard deviations), which is the interpretation the paper develops in (31) and its Appendix. The same constraint set serves the V-model (33), so only the objective changes between the two models.
Formalizing it. The result is classical and its proof is elementary, but the paper's argument is informal in ways that matter for a machine-checked version: it divides by a standard deviation it then allows to vanish, writes for what must be an upper-tail function, and labels a variance as while defining as a raw second moment. This mission produces a statement in which each of these points is settled, with every hypothesis explicit. No machine-checked version of the result is known to exist.
Difficulty
The chance-constraint step itself is a one-dimensional fact about the normal law, but three points need care. The variance of may be zero for some and ; then the law is a point mass, the quotient in (27) is undefined, and the equivalence must be argued separately, as footnote † of p. 28 indicates. The quadratic constraint of (29) alone, , describes both nappes of a hyperboloid and is not convex; convexity needs and the positive semidefiniteness of , which comes from square integrability of and not from normality. Finally, the identity relating , and the variance requires the integrals to be genuine, so the integrability hypotheses cannot be dropped.
Formalization scope
Everything is in the namespace ChanceDetEquiv.EModel. The probability space is (Ω, P) with [IsProbabilityMeasure P]; A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, b : Ω → Fin m → ℝ, c : Ω → Fin n → ℝ, D : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ; is (A *ᵥ (D *ᵥ b ω)) i. Expectations are Bochner integrals and probabilities are P.real. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:
- "deterministic equivalent for (18)" is the conjunction of an iff between feasible sets (with the auxiliary existentially quantified) and for every ; (29) minimizes the negative of this mean;
- "is a convex programming problem" is
Convex ℝof the feasible set of (29) in , included; for the V model it also assertsConvexOn ℝof ; - "normally distributed" is: for every and , the law of is
gaussianReal μ sfor some and ; joint normality of is not assumed, since it would be a stronger hypothesis; - " and are uncorrelated" is for all ;
- , using the published definition
Cohen2019_Robust_Phi; in (26)–(27) is read as the upper-tail function of , and is added so that is finite; - is the raw second moment exactly as printed in (30).
Positive variance is a hypothesis of milestones 2 and 3, where (27) has a denominator. The goal and later milestones admit zero variance. The statements admit no trivializing reading: the normality hypothesis is satisfied by constant and by Gaussian , the integrability hypotheses rule out the junk value of non-integrable expectations, and rules out the junk value of .
A complete development needs: the normal CDF and quantile, the law of an affine image of a random variable, variance as in , and convexity of the epigraph of a seminorm composed with an affine map. The convexity milestones need no probability beyond and are reusable for any second-order-cone representation of individual chance constraints. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.
The related open platform item KallMayer.Chance.chapter2_theorem2_5 (convexity of a single normal chance-feasible set in ) is credited here and not restated: no item of this mission states the convexity of the set of feasible for (18). Related published items that are about other models: DRCVRP.RCI.prob_le_iff_valueAtRisk_le (chance constraints and value-at-risk for a general law) and the log-concavity results of NumStochOpt.LogConcave.
Selected references
- A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper, Deterministic Equivalents for Optimizing and Satisficing under Chance Constraints, Operations Research 11(1), 1963, 18–39. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.11.1.18
- A. Charnes and W. W. Cooper, Chance-Constrained Programming, Management Science 6(1), 1959, 73–79. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.1.73
- A. Prékopa, Stochastic Programming, Kluwer, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-3087-7
- P. Kall and J. Mayer, Stochastic Linear Programming, 2nd ed., Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7729-8