Contact Interactions on a Lattice I: A Contact Process with (2d − 1)λₖ < kμ Dies Out from Every Finite Initial SetResearch Paper
Motivation
The contact process is the basic model of an infection spreading on a lattice: each infected site recovers at a constant rate, and each healthy site becomes infected at a rate that depends on how many of its neighbours are infected. It was introduced by T. E. Harris in Contact Interactions on a Lattice (Ann. Probab. 2, 1974), and it became one of the central examples of interacting particle systems, alongside the voter model and the stochastic Ising model (Liggett, Interacting Particle Systems, 1985, Ch. VI). Its main question is whether a finite infection dies out with probability one or survives forever with positive probability, and how that answer depends on the rates.
Harris's paper gives the first answers. It shows that, under natural conditions on the rates, the probability of survival is monotone, subadditive and submodular as a function of the initial set, and it uses these properties to prove a condition for certain extinction: Theorem 7.1. For the linear contact process (recovery rate , infection rate per infected neighbour) the condition is . Holley obtained Theorem 7.1 by different methods at about the same time (footnote 4, p. 981); Holley and Liggett (Ann. Probab. 3, 1975) later developed the duality theory of such processes.
Setting
Let be the -dimensional integer lattice, . Sites are neighbours, , if ; is the set of the neighbours of . A configuration is a finite set of infected sites; is the set of all of them, , and means and has a neighbour in .
The parameters are a recovery rate and infection rates . The contact process started from a finite set is the continuous-time Markov chain on that leaves at rate
and jumps to () at rate and to () at rate (4.5). The empty set is absorbing. Write for its transition function, for the transition matrix of its imbedded jump chain, and
The process is increasing, subadditive or submodular if, for all and , respectively , , or ((5.2)–(5.4)).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 7.1 (p. 981)
If
then
Milestones, in the order of the paper
- Theorem 4.3 (p. 975): from a finite set the process has finitely many jumps on every ; equivalently .
- (5.1) (p. 976): is non-increasing in , so is a limit.
- Theorem 5.6(a) (p. 977): if , the process is increasing.
- Theorem 5.6(b) (p. 977): if moreover , it is subadditive.
- Lemma 5.8 (p. 978): if , then and .
- Theorem 6.2 (p. 979): if is concave and non-decreasing with , the process is submodular.
- Change of time scale (p. 981): multiplying all rates by replaces by and leaves unchanged.
- First-step display (p. 981): for a subadditive process, a singleton , and , .
- (7.2) (p. 981): for , : , where are of a site and of a pair of neighbours.
- (7.3)–(7.4) (p. 981): .
- Conclusion of the proof (p. 981): for , , implies .
Significance
Theorem 7.1 gives a computable sufficient condition for extinction that holds in every dimension and for every non-linear infection law satisfying it. For the linear process it gives the lower bound on the critical infection rate; the paper's §9 shows conversely that the process survives for large , so the critical rate is non-trivial. The monotonicity, subadditivity and submodularity theorems of §§5–6 are the comparison tools on which much of the later theory of attractive spin systems was built, and Lemma 5.8 is the prototype of comparison between processes with ordered rates.
The results are proved in the paper, and the proof of Theorem 7.1 is half a page once §§5–6 are available. No machine-checked version of the contact process, of its comparison theorems, or of Theorem 7.1 is known to exist. A formalization produces a continuous-time Markov chain with unbounded rates and an absorbing state on a countable state space, its minimal transition function, a non-explosion criterion, first-step analysis for absorption probabilities, and coupling arguments for monotone comparison. The companion mission Contact Interactions on a Lattice II treats Theorem 7.6, the integrability of the expected size, on the same model.
Difficulty
The obvious argument is first-step analysis on singletons and pairs, (7.2) and (7.3). It fails as it stands because (7.3) involves of every three-point set , and no finite system of first-step equations closes; some inequality between survival probabilities of nested sets is needed, and the milestones record the one the paper uses. Submodularity, subadditivity and monotonicity are not consequences of the rates by direct computation: the paper proves each by building several contact processes on one probability space (Tables 1–4), which in a formal development means constructing couplings of chains with unbounded rates and checking that each marginal has the right law. The reduction from general to the linear case also needs the comparison Lemma 5.8, another coupling. Finally the rates grow linearly in , so uniformization does not apply and non-explosion (Theorem 4.3) must be proved before transition probabilities are known to sum to one.
Formalization scope
The process is the countable-state chain of §4, not the Feller process on all subsets of of §2: sites are Fin d → ℤ, configurations are Finsets, and is the minimal transition function of the rates (4.4)–(4.5), defined as the increasing limit of Feller's backward recursion. There is no measure-theoretic process object; and enter only through . Consequently Theorem 4.1 ( is stochastically closed) is built in, and every statement is made for finite initial sets, including those the page makes for arbitrary ((5.2)–(5.4), Lemma 5.8); for infinite the page itself notes .
The committed conventions:
- , , and take values in ; and , so means absorption at and cannot be produced by loss of mass to explosion.
- The rates are real; every theorem assumes , , and for . Conditions on range over (or ), never over all natural numbers.
- is the real number .
- In the linear case the scalar rate is written ( is reserved in Lean), and .
Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the survival probability is not taken from an arbitrary semigroup or a uniformization (the rates are unbounded); is not a real infimum or limUnder, whose junk value would make the goal free; is indexed by the number of infected, not vacant, neighbours, and forbids spontaneous infection; and (7.2) is stated for every site and every neighbour, not for one fixed pair.
A complete development needs: non-explosion for chains with linearly growing rates; the Chapman–Kolmogorov and strong Markov properties of the minimal chain at jump times; lattice symmetries (translations and coordinate reflections) acting on the chain; and couplings of several contact processes realised as one chain on a product type space. The chain infrastructure and the coupling lemmas are reusable beyond this mission, in particular by its companion. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, including proofs of the milestones under the paper's hypotheses by methods other than Harris's.
Selected references
- T. E. Harris, Contact interactions on a lattice, The Annals of Probability 2(6), 969–988, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996493
- R. Holley and T. M. Liggett, Ergodic theorems for weakly interacting infinite systems and the voter model, The Annals of Probability 3(4), 643–663, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996306
- T. M. Liggett, Interacting Particle Systems, Grundlehren 276, Springer, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8542-4
- W. Feller, On the integro-differential equations of purely discontinuous Markoff processes, Transactions of the AMS 48, 488–515, 1940. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1940-0002697-3
- J. R. Norris, Markov Chains, Cambridge University Press, 1997, §2.8. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511810633