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Operations Research

2,210 missions · 1,104 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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ProbabilityStatisticsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Elements of Queueing Theory V: Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of QueuesTextbook

Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of Queues

Background

Chapters 1–3 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory compute exact quantities: Palm identities, stability criteria, PASTA, Pollaczek–Khinchin. Chapter 4 asks a different question. When you cannot compute a queue, can you at least say it is better than another one?

That requires an order on distributions. The chapter builds a family of them — integral orders — by choosing a class ℒ of test functions and declaring F ≤_ℒ G when ∫f dF ≤ ∫f dG for all f ∈ ℒ. Three matter: {i} the non-decreasing functions, giving the strong (stochastic) order; {cx} the convex functions, giving the convex order; and their intersection {icx}.

The goal

An integral order compares two distributions that need not live on the same probability space, and that is both its convenience and its difficulty. Strassen's theorems say each of these orders is secretly a statement about a coupling.

Theorem 4.2.2 (p.278), Strassen's ≤_cx theorem:

F ≤_cx G   ⟺   ∃ X ~ F, Y ~ G on one space with  E[Y | X] = X  a.s.
F ≤_icx G  ⟺   the same with  E[Y | X] ≥ X  a.s.

The convex order holds exactly when G is a martingale dilation of F — obtained by spreading each point out without moving its conditional mean. That is what makes the order usable: comparison results for queues become induction arguments on a coupling instead of analytic manipulations of convolutions of c.d.f.'s.

Its companion Theorem 4.2.1 is the ≤_st version, where the coupling is the simpler X ≤ Y a.s. In dimension one both are explicit — take X = F⁻¹(U), Y = G⁻¹(U) for a uniform U. In dimension n there is no such formula, and that is why these are Strassen's theorems. The book attributes both to Strassen (1965) and proves neither.

Why FIFO is optimal

§4.1 is a different kind of comparison: not between two queues, but between two service disciplines for the same queue. The order there is majorization ≺, which compares how spread out two vectors of the same total are.

The answer is that FIFO minimizes E⁰[f(V)] for every convex f (Property 4.1.3), and the proof is an interchange argument. Under any non-preemptive discipline that uses no information on the service times, customer k effectively receives service σ_{γ(k)} for some permutation γ; Lemma 4.1.3 shows the same queue is produced by FIFO fed with that reordered input, and that the reordering does not change the law of the input. Lemma 4.1.4 passes to the limit, which needs ρ < 1. Lemmas 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 then do the combinatorics: undoing one inversion of γ makes the waiting-time vector less spread out, so the identity permutation — FIFO — is extremal.

Feller's paradox, and what survives it

§4.4 compares time-stationary queues, and opens with a warning. T_n[P⁰] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃⁰] for every n does not imply T_n[P] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃]: Example 4.4.1, "Feller's paradox revisited", exhibits a Poisson process and a renewal process where the Palm order holds and the stationary one fails. The order does not pass from the Palm probability to the stationary one.

For ≤_cx it does. Lemma 4.4.1 is why: it expands E_P[f(N[0,x))] as a series of second differences of f against Palm expectations, and a convex f makes every coefficient non-negative. Lemma 4.4.2 handles the S-orders, built by dividing Palm integrals by the mean cycle length, and shows that the normalisation does not hide the comparison it normalises by.

Formalization scope

  • Orders. ≤_i, ≤_cx, ≤_icx on distributions on ℝⁿ are integral orders over the book's test classes (§4.2.1), with the page's qualification that only test functions with well-defined integrals count. Majorization ≺ is (4.1.2) with increasing reorderings of both vectors.
  • Strassen. Both theorems are stated as equivalences, with the coupling existential over the probability space. Theorem 4.2.2 carries both clauses — E[Y | X] = X for ≤_cx, E[Y | X] ≥ X for ≤_icx, as conditional expectations given σ(X) — and assumes both distributions integrable; Theorem 4.2.1 has no integrability hypothesis. A one-directional statement (the Jensen half) is not the theorem.
  • The queue of §4.1.3 is constructed: a GI/GI input (i.i.d. inter-arrival and service times, independent), a single work-conserving server started empty, and any non-preemptive discipline whose choices are measurable in the information the book's σ-field 𝒢_t carries (arrivals, service times of customers already started) plus external randomisation. FIFO is one such discipline. The interchange permutations γ_n and their limit γ are built from the schedule as on pp.268–270; Lemma 4.1.4 assumes ρ = E[σ₀]/E[τ₀] < 1.
  • Lemma 4.4.1 is stated with the exact second-difference series and assumes that series converges absolutely; the page states it for all f, which fails for heavy-tailed counts and sparse f.
  • The S-orders test against {I-ℒ} — primitives ∫_0^t f(u, x) du of test functions — and apply only to distributions whose first coordinate is a.s. positive with a finite mean.

What this mission provides

None of it exists. Mathlib has no stochastic order, no convex order, no increasing-convex order, no majorization, no Schur-convexity and no Strassen theorem; the platform returns zero hits for q=stochastic ordering. Everything in this chapter is new substrate — and §§4.1–4.2 need nothing from Palm calculus, so this mission can be read on its own.

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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions II: Farkas' Lemma and Strict Complementary SlacknessTextbook

Motivation

Every linear program comes with a second linear program, its dual, and most of what is known about linear programming is a statement about how the two interact. Weak duality gives certificates of optimality; strong duality says those certificates always exist; complementary slackness turns optimality into a system of equations. These three facts are the core of any first course in optimization and of every correctness argument for the simplex method.

Strict complementarity is the sharpest statement of the same kind. Complementary slackness says that in each pair (a primal variable and its dual slack, a dual variable and its primal slack) at least one member vanishes at optimality. Strict complementarity says that some optimal pair can be chosen so that exactly one member vanishes in each pair. The result is due to Goldman and Tucker (1956). It is what identifies the optimal face of a linear program and its partition of the variables into those that can be positive at an optimum and those that cannot, and it is a standing ingredient in the analysis of interior-point methods, which approach this strictly complementary optimum rather than a vertex.

This mission formalizes the chain from duality to strict complementarity as it is developed in Chapters 5 and 10 of Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions (4th ed., Springer 2014, doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-7630-6). It is the second mission of a series on that book.

Timeline:

  • 1902 — Farkas publishes the lemma on the solvability of linear inequality systems.
  • 1947–1951 — von Neumann, and Gale, Kuhn and Tucker, establish linear programming duality.
  • 1956 — Goldman and Tucker prove the existence of strictly complementary optimal solutions (in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38).

Setting

Fix integers m,n≥0m, n \ge 0m,n≥0, a real m×nm \times nm×n matrix A=(aij)A = (a_{ij})A=(aij​), a vector b∈Rmb \in \mathbb{R}^mb∈Rm and a vector c∈Rnc \in \mathbb{R}^nc∈Rn. The primal problem is

maximize cTxsubject toAx+w=b,x≥0, w≥0,(10.9)\text{maximize } c^T x \quad\text{subject to}\quad Ax + w = b,\quad x \ge 0,\ w \ge 0, \qquad (10.9)maximize cTxsubject toAx+w=b,x≥0, w≥0,(10.9)

where w=b−Axw = b - Axw=b−Ax is the primal slack. The dual problem is

minimize bTysubject toATy−z=c,y≥0, z≥0,(10.10)\text{minimize } b^T y \quad\text{subject to}\quad A^T y - z = c,\quad y \ge 0,\ z \ge 0, \qquad (10.10)minimize bTysubject toATy−z=c,y≥0, z≥0,(10.10)

where z=ATy−cz = A^T y - cz=ATy−c is the dual slack. A vector xxx is primal feasible if x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 and w≥0w \ge 0w≥0; it is primal optimal if it is feasible and cTx′≤cTxc^T x' \le c^T xcTx′≤cTx for every feasible x′x'x′. Dual feasibility and dual optimality are defined in the same way, with minimization. Inequalities between vectors are componentwise, and ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0 means that every component of ξ\xiξ is strictly positive.

A halfspace of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is a set {x:aTx≤β}\{x : a^T x \le \beta\}{x:aTx≤β} with a≠0a \ne 0a=0; a polyhedron is a set {x:Ax≤b}\{x : Ax \le b\}{x:Ax≤b} for some mmm, AAA and bbb.

In the Lean development these objects live in the namespace VanderbeiLP.StrictComp: primalSlack A b x, dualSlack A c y, PrimalFeasible, DualFeasible, PrimalOptimal, DualOptimal, IsHalfspace, IsPolyhedron.

Formalization targets

Goal: Strict Complementary Slackness (Theorem 10.7)

If the primal (10.9) has an optimal solution, then there exist a primal optimal x∗x^*x∗ and a dual optimal y∗y^*y∗, with slacks w∗=b−Ax∗w^* = b - Ax^*w∗=b−Ax∗ and z∗=ATy∗−cz^* = A^T y^* - cz∗=ATy∗−c, such that

x∗+z∗>0andy∗+w∗>0.x^* + z^* > 0 \qquad\text{and}\qquad y^* + w^* > 0.x∗+z∗>0andy∗+w∗>0.

The only hypothesis is primal optimality; the existence of a dual optimum is part of the conclusion.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 5.1 (Weak Duality). Primal feasible xxx and dual feasible yyy satisfy cTx≤bTyc^T x \le b^T ycTx≤bTy.
  2. Theorem 5.2 (Strong Duality). If the primal has an optimal x∗x^*x∗, the dual has an optimal y∗y^*y∗ with cTx∗=bTy∗c^T x^* = b^T y^*cTx∗=bTy∗.
  3. Theorem 5.3 (Complementary Slackness). Feasible xxx, yyy are both optimal if and only if xjzj=0x_j z_j = 0xj​zj​=0 for all jjj and wiyi=0w_i y_i = 0wi​yi​=0 for all iii.
  4. Lemma 10.5 (Farkas' Lemma). Ax≤bAx \le bAx≤b has no solution if and only if some yyy satisfies ATy=0A^T y = 0ATy=0, y≥0y \ge 0y≥0, bTy<0b^T y < 0bTy<0.
  5. Theorem 10.4 (Separation of polyhedra). Two disjoint nonempty polyhedra lie in two disjoint halfspaces.
  6. Theorem 10.6. If both problems are feasible, there are feasible xˉ\bar xxˉ, yˉ\bar yyˉ​ with xˉ+zˉ>0\bar x + \bar z > 0xˉ+zˉ>0 and yˉ+wˉ>0\bar y + \bar w > 0yˉ​+wˉ>0.

Theorem 10.6 is the feasible-solution version of the goal; Theorem 10.4 is a further consequence of Farkas' Lemma in the same chapter.

Significance

Strict complementarity determines the optimal partition: the set of indices jjj for which some optimal x∗x^*x∗ has xj∗>0x^*_j > 0xj∗​>0 is exactly the complement of the set for which some optimal dual slack zj∗z^*_jzj∗​ is positive. This partition describes the optimal faces of both problems, is the object that interior-point methods recover in the limit, and is the starting point of sensitivity analysis beyond a single optimal basis. Farkas' Lemma and the separation theorem are the linear-algebraic form of convex separation and are reused across optimization, game theory and polyhedral combinatorics.

All results of this mission are classical and proved in the literature. What the mission adds is a machine-checked version of them in one fixed linear-programming form, the inequality form with explicit slacks used throughout Vanderbei's book. Weak duality, strong duality and complementary slackness are already formalized on this platform for other forms (Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis's general form, a minimization, and a covering pair with the roles of primal and dual exchanged). Those statements are equivalent to the ones here only after a transformation (negating the objective, swapping primal and dual), so they are not the same theorems. The Farkas variant for inequality systems, the separation theorem for two polyhedra, and both strict complementarity theorems have no formal counterpart on the platform.

Difficulty

Weak duality and the converse direction of complementary slackness are short computations. The substance lies elsewhere. Strong duality and Farkas' Lemma require a genuine existence argument; the book obtains them from the simplex method, whose termination is itself a nontrivial fact, and any other route needs an independent theorem of the alternative.

For strict complementarity the obvious attempt fails. Complementary slackness gives, for each optimal pair, only that one member of each complementary pair vanishes; nothing in a single optimal basic solution forces the other member to be positive, and in degenerate problems every basic optimal pair can fail strictness. A strictly complementary pair is in general not a vertex of either optimal face, so it cannot be found by inspecting basic solutions. The goal also asks for more than Theorem 10.6: the positivity must be achieved within the optimal sets, which are faces cut out by an additional objective-level constraint, so the feasible-solution argument does not transfer verbatim.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ and Fin m → ℝ; the constraint matrix is Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ; m and n are arbitrary natural numbers, including zero. The slacks are functions of the solution (primalSlack A b x = b - A *ᵥ x, dualSlack A c y = Aᵀ *ᵥ y - c), never free variables, so a "solution (x,w)(x, w)(x,w)" of the book is the vector xxx with the slack it determines. Optimality is attainment of the maximum (minimum) over the feasible set; no supremum, value function or extended reals are involved. The strict inequality ξ>0\xi > 0ξ>0 is written componentwise as ∀ j, 0 < x j + dualSlack A c y j and ∀ i, 0 < y i + primalSlack A b x i.

A halfspace carries a nonzero normal vector. Without that requirement the empty set would be a halfspace and the separation theorem would be trivial; the formal definition rules this out.

The book states every result in this mission with its hypotheses explicit, and none of them asserts the existence of an unspecified constant, so no explicit-constant instantiation was needed. The remark after Theorem 10.7 refers to "the complementary slackness theorem (Theorem 5.1)"; the complementary slackness theorem is Theorem 5.3, and the milestones follow the theorem numbering.

A complete development needs a theorem of the alternative for real linear inequality systems (Mathlib has Farkas-type results for cones and the geometric Hahn–Banach theorem, but no ready-made matrix version of Lemma 10.5) and elementary convex-combination arguments on feasible sets. The definitions of this mission are self-contained and reusable for any later chapter that works in Vanderbei's inequality form. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs that avoid the simplex method.

Selected references

  • R. J. Vanderbei, Linear Programming: Foundations and Extensions, 4th ed., International Series in Operations Research & Management Science 196, Springer, 2014. doi:10.1007/978-1-4614-7630-6
  • J. Farkas, "Theorie der einfachen Ungleichungen", Journal für die reine und angewandte Mathematik 124 (1902), 1–27. doi:10.1515/crll.1902.124.1
  • A. J. Goldman and A. W. Tucker, "Theory of linear programming", in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38, Princeton University Press, 1956, 53–97.
  • D. Gale, H. W. Kuhn and A. W. Tucker, "Linear programming and the theory of games", in Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, Wiley, 1951, 317–329.
9 thms3 active usersReviewed
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions XI: Convexity and Subgradients of the Value Function in Decomposition with Respect to VariablesTextbook

Motivation

Large convex programs often have a block structure: a small set of "complicating" variables xxx couples otherwise separate subproblems in the remaining variables yyy. Decomposition with respect to variables fixes xxx, solves the subproblem in yyy, and treats the optimal subproblem value as a function of xxx alone. The outer problem in xxx is then small but nonsmooth, because the optimal value of a constrained program is generally not differentiable in its parameters. Shor's Chapter 4 (Shor 1985, Ch. 4) presents this reduction as a principal application of subgradient methods: once a subgradient of the outer function can be read off from the subproblem, the methods of Chapters 2–3 apply directly. The same construction underlies Benders decomposition (Benders 1962) and its convex generalization (Geoffrion 1972), and parametric decomposition schemes for linear programs.

The chapter's other numbered results serve the same programme from the dual side: the Lagrangian dual function of a program over a compact set gives a lower bound usable in branch and bound (Theorem 4.3), exact nonsmooth penalty functions turn a constrained convex program into one unconstrained nonsmooth minimization (Theorem 4.2; nonsmooth penalties were first studied systematically by I. I. Eremin, 1967), and a stochastic transportation model is shown to be a convex program before being solved through its dual (Lemma 4.3).

Setting

The variables split into x∈Elxx \in E^x_lx∈Elx​ and y∈Emyy \in E^y_my∈Emy​ (Euclidean spaces, inner product (⋅,⋅)(\cdot,\cdot)(⋅,⋅)). The problem is

min⁡x,yf0(x,y)s.t.fi(x,y)≤0,i=1,…,n,(4.1)–(4.2)\min_{x,y} f_0(x,y) \quad \text{s.t.} \quad f_i(x,y) \le 0,\quad i = 1,\dots,n, \qquad (4.1)\text{–}(4.2)x,ymin​f0​(x,y)s.t.fi​(x,y)≤0,i=1,…,n,(4.1)–(4.2)

with f0,f1,…,fnf_0, f_1, \dots, f_nf0​,f1​,…,fn​ convex functions of z=(x,y)z = (x,y)z=(x,y) (jointly convex), finite everywhere. For a fixed xˉ\bar xxˉ, the subproblem (4.3)–(4.4) is min⁡y∈D(xˉ)f0(xˉ,y)\min_{y \in D(\bar x)} f_0(\bar x, y)miny∈D(xˉ)​f0​(xˉ,y) with D(xˉ)={y:fi(xˉ,y)≤0}D(\bar x) = \{y : f_i(\bar x,y) \le 0\}D(xˉ)={y:fi​(xˉ,y)≤0}. Where it has a solution y(xˉ)y(\bar x)y(xˉ), the value function is

Φ(xˉ)=min⁡y∈D(xˉ)f0(xˉ,y).(4.5)\Phi(\bar x) = \min_{y \in D(\bar x)} f_0(\bar x,y). \qquad (4.5)Φ(xˉ)=y∈D(xˉ)min​f0​(xˉ,y).(4.5)

The Slater condition at xˉ\bar xxˉ asks for a yyy with fi(xˉ,y)<0f_i(\bar x,y) < 0fi​(xˉ,y)<0 for all iii. The Lagrange function is LU(x,y)=f0(x,y)+∑iUifi(x,y)L_U(x,y) = f_0(x,y) + \sum_i U_i f_i(x,y)LU​(x,y)=f0​(x,y)+∑i​Ui​fi​(x,y), and U≥0U \ge 0U≥0 are Kuhn–Tucker multipliers at xˉ\bar xxˉ when Φ(xˉ)=min⁡yLU(xˉ,y)\Phi(\bar x) = \min_y L_U(\bar x,y)Φ(xˉ)=miny​LU​(xˉ,y). A subgradient of a function of (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is written through its projections (gx,gy)(g^x, g^y)(gx,gy) on the two blocks; a subgradient of Φ\PhiΦ at xˉ\bar xxˉ is a ggg with Φ(x)−Φ(xˉ)≥(x−xˉ,g)\Phi(x) - \Phi(\bar x) \ge (x - \bar x, g)Φ(x)−Φ(xˉ)≥(x−xˉ,g).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 94)

If WWW is a convex set of xxx-values at which the subproblem has a solution, then Φ\PhiΦ is convex on WWW; and if xˉ∈W\bar x \in Wxˉ∈W satisfies the Slater condition, then for every optimal y(xˉ)y(\bar x)y(xˉ), multipliers UUU exist, LUL_ULU​ has a subgradient at (xˉ,y(xˉ))(\bar x, y(\bar x))(xˉ,y(xˉ)) with vanishing yyy-projection, and the xxx-projection of any such subgradient satisfies

gΦ(xˉ)=gLUx(xˉ,y(xˉ))∈∂Φ(xˉ).(4.6)g_\Phi(\bar x) = g^x_{L_U}(\bar x, y(\bar x)) \in \partial \Phi(\bar x). \qquad (4.6)gΦ​(xˉ)=gLU​x​(xˉ,y(xˉ))∈∂Φ(xˉ).(4.6)

Milestones for the goal

  1. Convexity of Φ\PhiΦ on WWW (Theorem 4.1, first assertion).
  2. Existence of Kuhn–Tucker multipliers for the subproblem under Slater (p. 95, display).
  3. Existence of a subgradient of LUL_ULU​ with vanishing yyy-projection (p. 95).
  4. Formula (4.6) for a given multiplier vector and such a subgradient (p. 95, final display).

Further results of the chapter

  1. Corollary (4.7): if each fα(x,⋅)f_\alpha(x,\cdot)fα​(x,⋅) is continuously differentiable in yyy, then gf0x+∑iUigfixg^x_{f_0} + \sum_i U_i g^x_{f_i}gf0​x​+∑i​Ui​gfi​x​, built from arbitrary subgradients of the fαf_\alphafα​, is a subgradient of Φ\PhiΦ.
  2. Lemma 4.3: the stochastic transportation problem (4.163)–(4.165) is a convex program.
  3. Theorem 4.2: with nonsmooth penalties pip_ipi​ whose slopes ci=lim⁡t→0+pi(t)/tc_i = \lim_{t\to0+} p_i(t)/tci​=limt→0+​pi​(t)/t exceed a Lagrange multiplier vector yˉ\bar yyˉ​, the minimizers of S=f0+∑pi∘fiS = f_0 + \sum p_i \circ f_iS=f0​+∑pi​∘fi​ are exactly the solutions of the constrained program; and if a minimizer of SSS solves the program, some multiplier vector satisfies yˉ≤c\bar y \le cyˉ​≤c.
  4. Theorem 4.3: for Φ(u)=min⁡x∈X[f0+∑uifi]\Phi(u) = \min_{x\in X}[f_0 + \sum u_i f_i]Φ(u)=minx∈X​[f0​+∑ui​fi​] over a compact XXX, Q=max⁡u≥0Φ(u)≤f∗Q = \max_{u\ge0}\Phi(u) \le f^*Q=maxu≥0​Φ(u)≤f∗.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 4.1 is what makes decomposition with respect to variables an instance of convex nonsmooth minimization: the outer problem is convex, and one subproblem solve returns both Φ(xˉ)\Phi(\bar x)Φ(xˉ) and a subgradient. The algorithm on p. 96 — solve the subproblem at xkx_kxk​, form gΦ(xk)g_\Phi(x_k)gΦ​(xk​) by (4.6) or (4.7), take a subgradient step — is exactly this, and the step-size theory of Chapter 2 then gives convergence. The Corollary is the version used in practice for linear and quadratic subproblems, where multipliers and partial subgradients are computed directly. Theorem 4.2 justifies replacing constraints by nonsmooth penalties of finite slope, and Theorem 4.3 is the weak-duality bound behind Lagrangian relaxation in branch and bound.

Formalizing it. All results are classical and proved in the book; none is formalized as stated here. The platform already has related statements with different shapes: convexity of the perturbation value function in the constraint right-hand side (VectorSpaceOpt.perturbationValue_convex, Luenberger), Slater strong duality over the whole space (ConvexOptimization.slater_strong_duality), weak duality with an unconstrained domain (ConvexOptimization.weak_duality), weak Lagrangean duality for integer programs (LinearOptimization.integer_program_weak_lagrangean_duality), and the LP special case of convexity of the optimal cost (LinearOptimization.lp_optimal_cost_convex_in_rhs). This mission adds the partial-minimization form in which one block of variables is minimized out under joint convexity, its subgradient calculus, exact nonsmooth penalties, and weak duality over a compact domain.

Difficulty

Convexity of Φ\PhiΦ is elementary once the minimum is attained. The subgradient formula is where the obvious argument fails: an arbitrary subgradient of LUL_ULU​ at (xˉ,y(xˉ))(\bar x, y(\bar x))(xˉ,y(xˉ)) does not project to a subgradient of Φ\PhiΦ, because its yyy-projection contributes a term (y(x)−y(xˉ),gy)(y(x) - y(\bar x), g^y)(y(x)−y(xˉ),gy) of unknown sign. The theorem needs a subgradient whose yyy-projection vanishes, and its existence is a separate fact about partial minimization of a jointly convex, everywhere-finite function. The multipliers come from the Kuhn–Tucker theorem for the subproblem, which requires the Slater condition. In the Corollary, the difficulty is to show that differentiability in yyy forces the yyy-projection of any combination gf0+∑Uigfig_{f_0} + \sum U_i g_{f_i}gf0​​+∑Ui​gfi​​ to vanish. In Theorem 4.2 the necessity part needs a subdifferential chain rule for pi∘fip_i \circ f_ipi​∘fi​.

Formalization scope

  • ElxE^x_lElx​, EmyE^y_mEmy​ and ENE_NEN​ are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin l), EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin N); constraints are indexed by Fin n (or Fin m). All functions are real-valued and finite everywhere; joint convexity is convexity on the product Elx×EmyE^x_l \times E^y_mElx​×Emy​.
  • Φ\PhiΦ is a real infimum over D(x)D(x)D(x). It is the book's minimum wherever the minimum is attained, and every statement assumes attainment at each point of WWW. A statement about Φ\PhiΦ at points where the subproblem has no solution would be about Lean's default value 000, and is ruled out by these hypotheses.
  • "Convex on some convex subset WWW of EnE_nEn​" is read as convexity on every convex WWW on which Φ\PhiΦ is defined. A formalization quantifying over a single unspecified WWW (e.g. a singleton) would be trivially true.
  • Formula (4.6) is stated for subgradients of LUL_ULU​ whose yyy-projection is zero, as the book's proof uses it; the subgradient inequality for Φ\PhiΦ is stated on all of WWW.
  • Kuhn–Tucker multipliers relative to an optimal yˉ\bar yyˉ​: U≥0U \ge 0U≥0, Uifi(xˉ,yˉ)=0U_i f_i(\bar x,\bar y) = 0Ui​fi​(xˉ,yˉ​)=0, and yˉ\bar yyˉ​ minimizes LU(xˉ,⋅)L_U(\bar x,\cdot)LU​(xˉ,⋅) over all yyy.
  • Theorem 4.2: a Lagrange multiplier vector is yˉ≥0\bar y \ge 0yˉ​≥0 with f0+∑yˉifi≥f∗f_0 + \sum\bar y_i f_i \ge f^*f0​+∑yˉ​i​fi​≥f∗ everywhere, f∗f^*f∗ the finite optimal value; the necessity clause is read as "for some multiplier vector" (for all multiplier vectors it is false); the limits cic_ici​ are given as hypotheses.
  • Theorem 4.3: the minimum (4.187) attained for every u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 (the book's "min"; no continuity assumed); f∗f^*f∗ attained; QQQ attained as the book's "max" presupposes.
  • Lemma 4.3: demands with densities and finite mean, penalty coefficients rj≥0r_j \ge 0rj​≥0.

Useful infrastructure beyond this mission: partial minimization of jointly convex functions, subgradients on product spaces, and a Kuhn–Tucker saddle-point theorem for convex programs with inequality constraints. Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas for these, are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Z. Shor, Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 3, Springer, 1985, Ch. 4, pp. 93–96, 131–133, 146–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82118-9
  • J. F. Benders, Partitioning procedures for solving mixed-variables programming problems, Numerische Mathematik 4, 1962, 238–252. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01386316
  • A. M. Geoffrion, Generalized Benders decomposition, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 10, 1972, 237–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00934810
  • I. I. Eremin, The penalty method in convex programming, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 8, 1967, 459–462 (Shor's reference [22]).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970, §29 (partial minimization and perturbation functions). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions X: The Space-Dilation Ellipsoid Method Localizes the Solution in Ellipsoids Shrinking by the Ratio q_nTextbook

Motivation

The ellipsoid method is the algorithm that settled the polynomial-time solvability of linear programming (Khachiyan, 1979) and that underlies the equivalence of separation and optimization in combinatorial optimization (Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver, 1981). Its origin is in nonsmooth convex optimization. In 1976 Yudin and Nemirovskii proposed a modified method of centered sections that localizes an optimum inside a sequence of ellipsoids, and in 1977 N. Z. Shor observed independently that the same scheme is a subgradient method with space dilation along the gradient, the family of methods he had developed since 1969. Section 3.8 of Shor's monograph Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions (Springer 1985) presents the method in this second form and proves its basic localization property.

Timeline:

  • 1965. A. Yu. Levin proposes the method of centered sections (cuts through the center of gravity of a polyhedron); each cut removes at least a fixed fraction of the volume, but computing centers of gravity is impractical for n>3n > 3n>3.
  • 1969–1972. Shor introduces subgradient methods with space dilation along the gradient (SDG methods).
  • 1976. Yudin and Nemirovskii replace the polyhedron by a minimal ellipsoid containing a half-ellipsoid, obtaining a geometric volume decrease depending only on the dimension ([Yudin–Nemirovskii 1976]).
  • 1977. Shor shows that the same method is an SDG algorithm with coefficient β=(n−1)/(n+1)\beta = \sqrt{(n-1)/(n+1)}β=(n−1)/(n+1)​ ([Shor 1977]).
  • 1979. Khachiyan applies the method to linear inequalities with integer data, obtaining the first polynomial-time algorithm for linear programming ([Khachiyan 1979]).

Setting

Let EnE_nEn​ be nnn-dimensional Euclidean space with inner product (x,y)(x, y)(x,y), and n>1n > 1n>1. For a unit vector ξ\xiξ and a number α\alphaα, the operator of space dilation along ξ\xiξ with coefficient α\alphaα is Rα(ξ)=I+(α−1)ξξTR_\alpha(\xi) = I + (\alpha - 1)\xi\xi^TRα​(ξ)=I+(α−1)ξξT: it multiplies the component of a vector along ξ\xiξ by α\alphaα and leaves the orthogonal component unchanged.

Let g:En→Eng : E_n \to E_ng:En​→En​ be a vector field, not necessarily continuous. The problem is to find a point x∗x^*x∗ with

(g(x),x−x∗)≥0for all x∈En,(g(x), x - x^*) \ge 0 \quad \text{for all } x \in E_n,(g(x),x−x∗)≥0for all x∈En​,

where it is known that such an x∗x^*x∗ exists in the closed ball S(x0,R)S(x_0, R)S(x0​,R) of radius R>0R > 0R>0 about a given point x0x_0x0​. Put β=(n−1)/(n+1)\beta = \sqrt{(n-1)/(n+1)}β=(n−1)/(n+1)​ and r=n/n2−1r = n/\sqrt{n^2-1}r=n/n2−1​. The algorithm (3.57)–(3.60) starts from x0x_0x0​, B0=InB_0 = I_nB0​=In​, h0=R/(n+1)h_0 = R/(n+1)h0​=R/(n+1), and at iteration k+1k+1k+1 stops if g(xk)=0g(x_k) = 0g(xk​)=0, and otherwise sets

ξk=BkTg(xk)∥BkTg(xk)∥,xk+1=xk−hkBkξk,Bk+1=BkRβ(ξk),hk+1=rhk.\xi_k = \frac{B_k^T g(x_k)}{\|B_k^T g(x_k)\|}, \quad x_{k+1} = x_k - h_k B_k \xi_k, \quad B_{k+1} = B_k R_\beta(\xi_k), \quad h_{k+1} = r h_k .ξk​=∥BkT​g(xk​)∥BkT​g(xk​)​,xk+1​=xk​−hk​Bk​ξk​,Bk+1​=Bk​Rβ​(ξk​),hk+1​=rhk​.

With Ak=Bk−1A_k = B_k^{-1}Ak​=Bk−1​, the localizing ellipsoid is Φk={x:∥Ak(x−xk)∥≤(n+1)hk}\Phi_k = \{x : \|A_k(x - x_k)\| \le (n+1)h_k\}Φk​={x:∥Ak​(x−xk​)∥≤(n+1)hk​}, and the dimension-dependent ratio is

qn=n−1n+1(nn2−1)n<1.q_n = \sqrt{\frac{n-1}{n+1}}\left(\frac{n}{\sqrt{n^2-1}}\right)^n < 1 .qn​=n+1n−1​​(n2−1​n​)n<1.

Three problems produce such a field: minimizing a convex fff on a ball (the field (3.62), a subgradient inside the ball and the outward radial direction outside); the convex program min⁡f0\min f_0minf0​ s.t. fi≤0f_i \le 0fi​≤0 (the field (3.65), a subgradient of the objective at feasible points and of a most violated constraint otherwise); and a convex–concave saddle point problem (the field {gfx,−gfy}\{g_f^x, -g_f^y\}{gfx​,−gfy​}).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.14 (p. 86)

For every kkk,

∥Ak(xk−x∗)∥≤hk(n+1),(3.61)\|A_k(x_k - x^*)\| \le h_k (n+1), \tag{3.61}∥Ak​(xk​−x∗)∥≤hk​(n+1),(3.61)

that is, x∗∈Φkx^* \in \Phi_kx∗∈Φk​. The statement holds for every field ggg satisfying the monotonicity condition at x∗x^*x∗; nothing about continuity or convexity is assumed.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (3.4): ∥Rα(ξ)x∥=∥x∥2+(α2−1)(x,ξ)2\|R_\alpha(\xi)x\| = \sqrt{\|x\|^2 + (\alpha^2-1)(x,\xi)^2}∥Rα​(ξ)x∥=∥x∥2+(α2−1)(x,ξ)2​ for unit ξ\xiξ.
  2. Volume of Φk\Phi_kΦk​ (p. 87): (n+1)hk=Rrk(n+1)h_k = R r^k(n+1)hk​=Rrk and v(Φk)=v0Rnrnk/det⁡Akv(\Phi_k) = v_0 R^n r^{nk}/\det A_kv(Φk​)=v0​Rnrnk/detAk​, v0v_0v0​ the volume of the unit ball.
  3. Volume ratio (p. 87–88): v(Φk+1)=qn v(Φk)v(\Phi_{k+1}) = q_n\, v(\Phi_k)v(Φk+1​)=qn​v(Φk​) with qn<1q_n < 1qn​<1, the volumes being positive and finite.
  4. Eq. (3.62): the ball field satisfies (g(x),x−x∗)≥0(g(x), x - x^*) \ge 0(g(x),x−x∗)≥0.
  5. Eq. (3.65): the convex-programming field satisfies (g(x),x−x∗)≥0(g(x), x - x^*) \ge 0(g(x),x−x∗)≥0.
  6. Saddle point field (p. 90): (g(z),z−z∗)≥0(g(z), z - z^*) \ge 0(g(z),z−z∗)≥0.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.14 with the volume identity says that after kkk steps the solution is confined to an ellipsoid of volume qnkq_n^kqnk​ times that of the initial ball, for any field of the above kind. Milestones 4–6 turn this into localization guarantees for constrained convex minimization, general convex programming and convex–concave saddle points, with a rate that depends only on the dimension. The same localization underlies the complexity bounds of the ellipsoid method for linear programming and the polynomial equivalence of separation and optimization.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and proved in the book. No machine-checked proof of the space-dilation form of the method is known to exist. The platform already contains a proved version of the Bertsimas–Tsitsiklis form (LinearOptimization.ellipsoid_update_halfspace_subset, LinearOptimization.ellipsoid_update_volume_lt: a half-ellipsoid E(z,D)∩{aTx≥aTz}E(z, D) \cap \{a^Tx \ge a^Tz\}E(z,D)∩{aTx≥aTz} is covered by an updated ellipsoid whose volume is smaller by a factor below e−1/(2(n+1))e^{-1/(2(n+1))}e−1/(2(n+1))), and Khachiyan's feasibility algorithm (SmaleNinth.khachiyan_ellipsoid_decides). Those statements are about a center/shape-matrix update and give a volume inequality; this mission is about the iterates of Shor's matrix recursion Bk+1=BkRβ(ξk)B_{k+1} = B_k R_\beta(\xi_k)Bk+1​=Bk​Rβ​(ξk​) and the exact ratio qnq_nqn​. Relating the two parametrizations (Dk=(n+1)2hk2BkBkTD_k = (n+1)^2 h_k^2 B_k B_k^TDk​=(n+1)2hk2​Bk​BkT​) is a welcome side result.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, tracking the ellipsoid through the center and shape matrix and invoking a minimum-volume covering argument, is not what the algorithm computes: here the iterate is updated through the factor BkB_kBk​ and the stepsize hkh_khk​ is fixed in advance, independent of the field, so the induction must be carried out in the transformed coordinates zk=Ak(xk−x∗)z_k = A_k(x_k - x^*)zk​=Ak​(xk​−x∗) in which the ellipsoid is a ball. The difficulty is that the monotonicity condition gives only the sign of one inner product, (zk,ξk)≥0(z_k, \xi_k) \ge 0(zk​,ξk​)≥0, while the norm of zk+1z_{k+1}zk+1​ depends on both (zk,ξk)(z_k,\xi_k)(zk​,ξk​) and ∥zk∥\|z_k\|∥zk​∥; the constants β\betaβ and rrr are exactly those for which the resulting quadratic estimate closes. For the volume identity, the main technical step is computing det⁡Rβ(ξ)=β\det R_\beta(\xi) = \betadetRβ​(ξ)=β and the Lebesgue measure of a linear image of a ball in EuclideanSpace.

Formalization scope

  • EnE_nEn​ is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); matrices act through Matrix.toEuclideanLin; Bk∗B_k^*Bk∗​ is the transpose. Rα(ξ)R_\alpha(\xi)Rα​(ξ) is the matrix I+(α−1)ξξTI + (\alpha-1)\xi\xi^TI+(α−1)ξξT (the book's property 10); for unit ξ\xiξ this is the operator of the book's definition.
  • The algorithm is the definition ellipsoidMethod g R x₀ : ℕ → EllState n, with state (xk,Bk,hk)(x_k, B_k, h_k)(xk​,Bk​,hk​), B0=IB_0 = IB0​=I, h0=R/(n+1)h_0 = R/(n+1)h0​=R/(n+1). If g(xk)=0g(x_k) = 0g(xk​)=0 the state is repeated from then on (the book stops); the normalization in (3.57) is only performed when g(xk)≠0g(x_k) \ne 0g(xk​)=0. AkA_kAk​ is the matrix inverse of BkB_kBk​, which is nonsingular.
  • Theorem 3.14 is stated for n>1n > 1n>1, R>0R > 0R>0, x∗x^*x∗ with ∥x0−x∗∥≤R\|x_0 - x^*\| \le R∥x0​−x∗∥≤R and (g(x),x−x∗)≥0(g(x), x - x^*) \ge 0(g(x),x−x∗)≥0 for all xxx, for every kkk. The book's additional assumption that g(x)≠0g(x) \ne 0g(x)=0 for x≠x∗x \ne x^*x=x∗ is not used by its proof and is omitted. The iterates are those of the recursion; a statement about an arbitrary ellipsoid containing x∗x^*x∗, or about an arbitrary invertible matrix in place of BkB_kBk​, would not be this theorem and is ruled out by the definitions.
  • Volumes are Lebesgue measure in ℝ≥0∞. The ellipsoid is given for an arbitrary center (the book writes x∗x^*x∗ in one place and xkx_kxk​ in another; the volume is the same). The volume formula requires the first kkk iterations to have been performed (g(xj)≠0g(x_j) \ne 0g(xj​)=0, j<kj < kj<k); the ratio requires iteration k+1k+1k+1 to be performed.
  • The printed chain on p. 87 has misprints (exponents 222 and 111 on n/n2−1n/\sqrt{n^2-1}n/n2−1​ where nnn is meant, and (n−1)/(n+1)(n-1)/(n+1)(n−1)/(n+1) for (n−1)/(n+1)\sqrt{(n-1)/(n+1)}(n−1)/(n+1)​); the statement follows the value of qnq_nqn​ given on p. 88. The estimate for x∉S(x0,R)x \notin S(x_0,R)x∈/S(x0​,R) before (3.62) has a sign misprint; only the conclusion is stated.
  • Needed infrastructure: determinant of a rank-one perturbation of the identity (det⁡(I+c ξξT)=1+c∥ξ∥2\det(I + c\,\xi\xi^T) = 1 + c\|\xi\|^2det(I+cξξT)=1+c∥ξ∥2, available in Mathlib as the matrix determinant lemma), the measure of a linear image (MeasureTheory.Measure.addHaar_image_linearMap), and elementary real inequalities for qn<1q_n < 1qn​<1. The space-dilation lemmas are reusable in the other Shor missions on SDG methods and the rrr-algorithm.

Selected references

  • N. Z. Shor, Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 3, Springer, 1985, §3.8. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82118-9
  • D. B. Yudin and A. S. Nemirovskii, Informational complexity and efficient methods for the solution of convex extremal problems, Ekonomika i Matematicheskie Metody 12 (1976), 357–369 (English translation: Matekon 13 (1977), 25–45).
  • N. Z. Shor, Cut-off method with space extension in convex programming problems, Cybernetics 13 (1977), 94–96.
  • L. G. Khachiyan, A polynomial algorithm in linear programming, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 20 (1979), 191–194.
  • R. G. Bland, D. Goldfarb and M. J. Todd, The ellipsoid method: a survey, Operations Research 29 (1981), 1039–1091. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.6.1039
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász and A. Schrijver, Geometric Algorithms and Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-97881-4
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions III: Convergence of the Normalized Subgradient Method with Divergent-Series StepsizesTextbook

Motivation

Many optimization problems of operations research have objectives that are convex but not differentiable: Lagrangian duals of integer and combinatorial programs, maxima of finitely many affine or smooth functions, penalty functions for systems of inequalities, and the value functions produced by decomposition. For such functions the gradient method and steepest descent fail. Constant steps cannot work because the subgradients need not tend to zero at a nondifferentiable minimum, and exact line search along the negative gradient can converge to a point that is not a minimizer (the example on pp. 22–23 of the source).

The subgradient method replaces the gradient by an arbitrary subgradient and gives up monotone decrease of the objective. Its convergence theory is the foundation of nondifferentiable optimization and of Lagrangian relaxation in integer programming.

Timeline. N. Z. Shor proposed the method with normalized steps in 1962 (Kiev). Yu. M. Ermoliev proved convergence in finite dimensions with divergent-series stepsizes (Kibernetika, 1966), and B. T. Polyak proved it for constrained problems in Hilbert space (Doklady Akad. Nauk SSSR, 1967). Held, Wolfe and Crowder (Mathematical Programming, 1974) brought the method to large combinatorial problems through Lagrangian relaxation. This mission formalizes the exposition of Section 2.1–2.2 of Shor's monograph (Springer, 1985), which gives self-contained proofs of these results.

Setting

Let EnE_nEn​ be the nnn-dimensional Euclidean space with inner product (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) and norm ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥. Let f:En→Rf : E_n \to \mathbb{R}f:En​→R be a convex function finite everywhere. A vector ggg is a subgradient of fff at x0x_0x0​ if

f(x)−f(x0)≥(g,x−x0)for all x∈En.f(x) - f(x_0) \ge (g, x - x_0) \quad \text{for all } x \in E_n.f(x)−f(x0​)≥(g,x−x0​)for all x∈En​.

Every convex fff has at least one subgradient at every point. Let M∗={x:f(x)≤f(y) ∀y}M^* = \{x : f(x) \le f(y) \ \forall y\}M∗={x:f(x)≤f(y) ∀y} be the set of minimum points and, when it is nonempty, f∗=min⁡ff^* = \min ff∗=minf.

A subgradient selection gfg_fgf​ assigns to each xxx some subgradient gf(x)g_f(x)gf​(x) of fff at xxx. No particular choice is made: every result holds for every selection. Given stepsizes h1,h2,⋯>0h_1, h_2, \dots > 0h1​,h2​,⋯>0 and a starting point x0x_0x0​, the normalized subgradient method is

xk+1=xk−hk+1 gf(xk)∥gf(xk)∥,k=0,1,…(2.4)x_{k+1} = x_k - h_{k+1}\, \frac{g_f(x_k)}{\|g_f(x_k)\|}, \qquad k = 0, 1, \dots \tag{2.4}xk+1​=xk​−hk+1​∥gf​(xk​)∥gf​(xk​)​,k=0,1,…(2.4)

If gf(xk)=0g_f(x_k) = 0gf​(xk​)=0, then xkx_kxk​ is a minimizer and the computation stops. The unnormalized method is xk+1=xk−hk+1gf(xk)x_{k+1} = x_k - h_{k+1} g_f(x_k)xk+1​=xk​−hk+1​gf​(xk​) (2.5), and the method with restarts takes that step when hk+1∥gf(xk)∥≤ch_{k+1}\|g_f(x_k)\| \le chk+1​∥gf​(xk​)∥≤c and returns to x0x_0x0​ otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2 (p. 25)

If M∗M^*M∗ is nonempty and bounded, hk>0h_k > 0hk​>0, hk→0h_k \to 0hk​→0 and ∑k≥1hk=+∞\sum_{k \ge 1} h_k = +\infty∑k≥1​hk​=+∞, then for every x0x_0x0​ and every subgradient selection, the method (2.4) either reaches M∗M^*M∗ at some index kˉ\bar kkˉ or

lim⁡k→∞min⁡y∈M∗∥xk−y∥=0,lim⁡k→∞f(xk)=f∗.\lim_{k \to \infty} \min_{y \in M^*} \|x_k - y\| = 0, \qquad \lim_{k \to \infty} f(x_k) = f^*.k→∞lim​y∈M∗min​∥xk​−y∥=0,k→∞lim​f(xk​)=f∗.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (2.3), the one-step inequality ∥xk+1−x∗∥2≤∥xk−x∗∥2+h2−2h ρ(x∗,Uk)\|x_{k+1} - x^*\|^2 \le \|x_k - x^*\|^2 + h^2 - 2h\,\rho(x^*, U_k)∥xk+1​−x∗∥2≤∥xk​−x∗∥2+h2−2hρ(x∗,Uk​), where Uk={x:f(x)=f(xk)}U_k = \{x : f(x) = f(x_k)\}Uk​={x:f(x)=f(xk​)}.
  2. Theorem 2.1: with constant step length hhh, some level surface {f=f(xk∗)}\{f = f(x_{k^*})\}{f=f(xk∗​)} passes within h(1+ε)/2h(1+\varepsilon)/2h(1+ε)/2 of any x∗∈M∗x^* \in M^*x∗∈M∗.
  3. Corollaries 1 and 2: a suitable constant step length yields a subsequence with f(xki)−f∗<δf(x_{k_i}) - f^* < \deltaf(xki​​)−f∗<δ. If M∗M^*M∗ contains a ball of radius r>h/2r > h/2r>h/2, the method terminates in M∗M^*M∗.
  4. Theorem 2.5: if M∗M^*M∗ contains a ball of radius rrr, ∑hk=∞\sum h_k = \infty∑hk​=∞ and lim sup⁡hk<2r\limsup h_k < 2rlimsuphk​<2r, then (2.4) terminates in M∗M^*M∗.
  5. Theorem 2.3: for the unnormalized method (2.5), bounded subgradients along the trajectory imply convergence, and unbounded subgradients rule it out.
  6. Theorem 2.4: the method with restarts converges for every c>0c > 0c>0.

Significance

Theorem 2.2 is the basic convergence guarantee for first-order methods on general nonsmooth convex functions. It needs no Lipschitz constant, no bound on the subgradients and no smoothness: normalizing the step makes the step length independent of the size of the subgradient. The divergent-series rule hk→0h_k \to 0hk​→0, ∑hk=∞\sum h_k = \infty∑hk​=∞ is the standard stepsize condition of stochastic approximation and of Lagrangian relaxation codes. Theorems 2.3–2.5 mark its boundaries. The unnormalized method needs bounded subgradients (Theorem 2.3), restarts remove that need (Theorem 2.4), and a solution set with nonempty interior gives finite termination (Theorem 2.5). The last result is the basis of the finite methods for systems of convex inequalities and for the dual of an assignment problem with a unique solution (pp. 28–29).

All of these results are classical and proved in the source. None of them is formalized in Lean's Mathlib. The platform has neighbouring results that are not the same statements: Poljak's divergent-series theorem for concave piecewise-linear maximization (in Validation of Subgradient Optimization I), and rate bounds for Lipschitz objectives (First-Order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for ML II, Understanding Machine Learning X). This mission adds the general convex case with normalized steps, the dichotomy for unnormalized steps, and finite termination.

Difficulty

The standard rate analysis of the subgradient method bounds ∥xk+1−x∗∥2−∥xk−x∗∥2\|x_{k+1} - x^*\|^2 - \|x_k - x^*\|^2∥xk+1​−x∗∥2−∥xk​−x∗∥2 by −2hk+1(f(xk)−f∗)/∥gf(xk)∥+hk+12-2h_{k+1}(f(x_k) - f^*)/\|g_f(x_k)\| + h_{k+1}^2−2hk+1​(f(xk​)−f∗)/∥gf​(xk​)∥+hk+12​. It then needs a uniform bound on ∥gf(xk)∥\|g_f(x_k)\|∥gf​(xk​)∥, which is exactly what is not assumed here. Nothing a priori keeps the iterates in a bounded set, and the subgradients of a general convex function (for instance f(x)=x4f(x) = x^4f(x)=x4, the source's example on p. 26) grow without bound away from M∗M^*M∗; with unnormalized steps this makes the method diverge. Even with normalized steps, the distance to a minimizer decreases only outside a neighbourhood of M∗M^*M∗ whose size is of the order of the current step, so a monotone decrease argument gives at best a subsequence with small function values. Convergence of the whole sequence min⁡y∈M∗∥xk−y∥\min_{y \in M^*}\|x_k - y\|miny∈M∗​∥xk​−y∥ to zero is a stronger statement, and boundedness of M∗M^*M∗ is essential to it.

Formalization scope

  • EnE_nEn​ is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); fff is real-valued (finite everywhere) with ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ f.
  • The subgradient selection g is arbitrary, with the hypothesis ∀ x, IsSubgradient f x (g x). The starting point is arbitrary.
  • The iterations are defined recursively (normalizedIter, plainIter, resetIter); the stepsize sequence is h : ℕ → ℝ with h (k+1) used at step kkk. In (2.4), a zero subgradient is handled by an explicit branch that repeats the current iterate (which is then in M∗M^*M∗). No statement relies on Lean's convention x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0.
  • M∗M^*M∗ is required to be nonempty wherever the book writes min⁡y∈M∗\min_{y \in M^*}miny∈M∗​ or f∗=min⁡ff^* = \min ff∗=minf. min⁡y∈M∗∥xk−y∥\min_{y \in M^*}\|x_k - y\|miny∈M∗​∥xk​−y∥ is Metric.infDist, and f∗f^*f∗ is ⨅ y, f y.
  • ∑k≥1hk=+∞\sum_{k \ge 1} h_k = +\infty∑k≥1​hk​=+∞ is Tendsto (fun N => ∑ k ∈ Finset.range N, h (k+1)) atTop atTop. lim sup⁡hk<2r\limsup h_k < 2rlimsuphk​<2r is "for some q<2rq < 2rq<2r, eventually hk≤qh_k \le qhk​≤q", so it cannot hold vacuously for an unbounded sequence.
  • Corollary 1's step length hδh_\deltahδ​ is quantified before the selection and the starting point: it depends only on fff and δ\deltaδ.
  • Theorem 2.3 is stated as two implications, (bounded subgradients ⇒ convergence) and (unbounded ⇒ no convergence), not as a disjunction that one case could satisfy trivially.
  • A formalization of Theorem 2.2 that assumes bounded subgradients, a Lipschitz fff, or a specific subgradient choice (such as the minimal-norm one) proves a different and weaker theorem, and does not close the goal.

Needed infrastructure: continuity of convex functions on EnE_nEn​ (in Mathlib), compactness of sublevel sets when M∗M^*M∗ is bounded, and the geometry of level surfaces relative to supporting hyperplanes. The one-step inequality (2.3) and the level-set compactness lemma are reusable by the later missions of this series (linear rate, Polyak's stepsize, stochastic subgradient). Contributions that prove Eq. (2.3) or Theorem 2.1 first are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Z. Shor, Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 3, Springer, 1985, Chapter 2, pp. 22–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-82118-9
  • B. T. Polyak, A general method for solving extremal problems, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR 174 (1967), 33–36 (the source's reference [64]).
  • Yu. M. Ermoliev, Methods for solving nonlinear extremal problems, Kibernetika (Kiev), no. 4 (1966), 1–17 (the source's reference [24]).
  • M. Held, P. Wolfe, H. P. Crowder, Validation of subgradient optimization, Mathematical Programming 6 (1974), 62–88. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580223
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems XIII: Lyapunov Criteria and z Standard Markov Chains with CostsTextbook

Motivation

Average cost control of queues rests on a small amount of Markov chain theory: when does a chain with costs have a well defined long-run average cost, and how can that be checked for a concrete model with an unbounded state space? Appendix C of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, doi:10.1002/9780470317037) collects this material for countable state spaces and packages it in one hypothesis, the zzz standard chain. Chapters 7–10 of the book verify this hypothesis for the Markov chains induced by stationary policies in admission, routing and service-rate control models, and use its consequences to prove existence of average cost optimal policies.

The tools are Lyapunov functions in the sense of Foster (1953): a nonnegative function on the states whose expected one-step change is negative away from a finite set. Foster's criterion for positive recurrence, and its refinements bounding expected first passage times and costs, are the standard way to verify stability of queueing networks (Meyn and Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability, 1993/2009).

Setting

A Markov chain Γ\GammaΓ on a countable set SSS is given by transition probabilities Pij≥0P_{ij}\ge 0Pij​≥0 with ∑jPij=1\sum_j P_{ij}=1∑j​Pij​=1. XtX_tXt​ is the state at time ttt and Pij(t)P^{(t)}_{ij}Pij(t)​ the ttt-step transition probability (Pij(0)=δijP^{(0)}_{ij}=\delta_{ij}Pij(0)​=δij​). State iii leads to jjj if Pij(t)>0P^{(t)}_{ij}>0Pij(t)​>0 for some t≥0t\ge0t≥0; states that lead to each other communicate, which partitions SSS into communicating classes.

For a nonempty G⊆SG\subseteq SG⊆S the first passage time from iii is TiG=min⁡{t≥1:Xt∈G}T_{iG}=\min\{t\ge1: X_t\in G\}TiG​=min{t≥1:Xt​∈G} given X0=iX_0=iX0​=i, and miG=E[TiG]∈[0,∞]m_{iG}=E[T_{iG}]\in[0,\infty]miG​=E[TiG​]∈[0,∞]; mijm_{ij}mij​ is the case G={j}G=\{j\}G={j} and miim_{ii}mii​ the expected return time. The taboo probability GPik(t)_G P^{(t)}_{ik}G​Pik(t)​ is the probability of going from iii to kkk in ttt steps without visiting GGG at the intermediate times, and Guik_G u_{ik}G​uik​ is the expected number of visits to kkk at times 0≤t<TiG0\le t<T_{iG}0≤t<TiG​. A state is transient if P(Tii<∞)<1P(T_{ii}<\infty)<1P(Tii​<∞)<1 and positive recurrent if mii<∞m_{ii}<\inftymii​<∞; a positive recurrent class is a communicating class of positive recurrent states. The steady state probability is πj=(mjj)−1\pi_j=(m_{jj})^{-1}πj​=(mjj​)−1 (zero when mjj=∞m_{jj}=\inftymjj​=∞).

Each state carries a finite cost C(i)≥0C(i)\ge0C(i)≥0. The expected average cost over [0,n−1][0,n-1][0,n−1] from iii is

Ji(n)=1n E[∑t=0n−1C(Xt) ∣ X0=i]=1n∑t=0n−1∑jPij(t)C(j),J^{(n)}_i=\frac1n\,E\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{n-1}C(X_t)\,\Big|\,X_0=i\Big]=\frac1n\sum_{t=0}^{n-1}\sum_j P^{(t)}_{ij}C(j),Ji(n)​=n1​E[t=0∑n−1​C(Xt​)​X0​=i]=n1​t=0∑n−1​j∑​Pij(t)​C(j),

ciGc_{iG}ciG​ is the expected cost E[∑t=0TiG−1C(Xt)∣X0=i]E[\sum_{t=0}^{T_{iG}-1}C(X_t)\mid X_0=i]E[∑t=0TiG​−1​C(Xt​)∣X0​=i] of a first passage (defined when miG<∞m_{iG}<\inftymiG​<∞), and JR=∑j∈RπjC(j)J_R=\sum_{j\in R}\pi_jC(j)JR​=∑j∈R​πj​C(j) is the average cost on a positive recurrent class RRR. The chain is zzz standard (Definition C.2.5) if for a distinguished state zzz

miz<∞andciz<∞for all i∈S.m_{iz}<\infty\quad\text{and}\quad c_{iz}<\infty\qquad\text{for all } i\in S.miz​<∞andciz​<∞for all i∈S.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition C.2.6

If Γ\GammaΓ is zzz standard, then SSS is the union of a positive recurrent class R∋zR\ni zR∋z and a set of transient states, JR<∞J_R<\inftyJR​<∞, and

lim⁡n→∞Ji(n)=JRfor every i∈S.\lim_{n\to\infty}J^{(n)}_i=J_R\qquad\text{for every } i\in S.n→∞lim​Ji(n)​=JR​for every i∈S.

The statement fixes no constants: it asserts that the average cost exists, is finite, and does not depend on the initial state.

Milestones

  1. Proposition C.1.2: π\piπ is the unique stationary distribution of a positive recurrent class, and πj=eij/mii=πieij\pi_j=e_{ij}/m_{ii}=\pi_ie_{ij}πj​=eij​/mii​=πi​eij​.
  2. Proposition C.1.4: the first-step equations (C.2)–(C.4) for taboo probabilities, visit counts and miGm_{iG}miG​; ∑i∈GπimiG=1\sum_{i\in G}\pi_im_{iG}=1∑i∈G​πi​miG​=1 for GGG inside a positive recurrent class; mij<∞m_{ij}<\inftymij​<∞ within such a class.
  3. Proposition C.1.5: if ∑jPij[y(j)−y(i)]≤−ϵ\sum_jP_{ij}[y(j)-y(i)]\le-\epsilon∑j​Pij​[y(j)−y(i)]≤−ϵ off GGG, then miG≤y(i)/ϵm_{iG}\le y(i)/\epsilonmiG​≤y(i)/ϵ.
  4. Corollary C.1.6: the same with G={z}G=\{z\}G={z} and ∑jPzjy(j)<∞\sum_jP_{zj}y(j)<\infty∑j​Pzj​y(j)<∞ makes zzz positive recurrent.
  5. Proposition C.2.1: on a positive recurrent class, Ji(n)→JR=cii/miiJ^{(n)}_i\to J_R=c_{ii}/m_{ii}Ji(n)​→JR​=cii​/mii​.
  6. Proposition C.2.2: ciG=∑kC(k) Guikc_{iG}=\sum_kC(k)\,{}_Gu_{ik}ciG​=∑k​C(k)G​uik​, the first-step equation (C.13), and JR=∑i∈GπiciGJ_R=\sum_{i\in G}\pi_ic_{iG}JR​=∑i∈G​πi​ciG​.
  7. Proposition C.2.3 and Corollary C.2.4: the cost drift condition ∑jPij[r(j)−r(i)]≤−C(i)\sum_jP_{ij}[r(j)-r(i)]\le-C(i)∑j​Pij​[r(j)−r(i)]≤−C(i) off a finite set bounds ciG≤r(i)+FmiGc_{iG}\le r(i)+Fm_{iG}ciG​≤r(i)+FmiG​, and gives czz<∞c_{zz}<\inftyczz​<∞.
  8. Remark C.2.7: the hypotheses of C.1.6 and C.2.4 together imply the chain is zzz standard; so do irreducibility, positive recurrence and finite average cost.

Significance

Proposition C.2.6 is what makes the zzz standard hypothesis useful: an average cost criterion that is a genuine limit, finite, and independent of the initial state, even for chains with transient states and unbounded state spaces. Every average cost optimality result of the book that works with a stationary policy's induced chain (the (SEN) and (BOR) assumption sets, the approximating-sequence method, the continuous-time chapter) calls on this proposition or on the Lyapunov criteria of Remark C.2.7 to establish its hypotheses for queueing models.

All results of the mission are classical and proved in the literature; parts are stated in the book without proof and referred to Chung (1967), Grassmann et al. (1985) and renewal theory. None of them has been machine-checked in this form as far as the platform and Mathlib show: Mathlib has kernels and Ionescu-Tulcea trajectories but no countable-state Markov chain classification, no first passage calculus, and no Foster–Lyapunov criterion. Existing platform results on countable chains (the Levin–Peres–Wilmer series) treat irreducible chains without costs. A complete development here produces a reusable library of first passage identities, Foster–Lyapunov bounds for times and costs, and average cost limits on reducible chains.

Difficulty

The Lyapunov bounds (C.1.5, C.2.3) are telescoping arguments, but they require a clean handling of truncated passages and of sums that may be infinite: (C.7) is an inequality between possibly divergent series, and the step "iterate nnn times and let n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞" must be made rigorous for [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued expectations.

The central difficulty is part (iii) of the goal for transient initial states. On the class RRR, the limit of Ji(n)J^{(n)}_iJi(n)​ is a renewal reward theorem over successive returns to zzz; from a transient state the first cycle has a different law, so a delayed renewal reward argument is needed, and it has to cover the case where costs are unbounded. The obvious approach, bounding Ji(n)J^{(n)}_iJi(n)​ between JRJ_RJR​ and the average over the first nnn steps of the chain started in zzz, fails because Pij(t)P^{(t)}_{ij}Pij(t)​ need not converge (periodic classes) and because finite cizc_{iz}ciz​ does not bound individual cost terms. Proposition C.1.2's uniqueness and the Kac-type identity of C.1.4(iv) likewise need the full cycle decomposition of a positive recurrent class.

Formalization scope

The chain is a structure MC S with P : S → S → ℝ≥0∞ and ∑' j, P i j = 1, over a countable type S; costs are C : S → ℝ≥0. Probabilities and expectations are ℝ≥0∞-valued sums over finite paths Fin (t+1) → S, so every quantity is defined without summability side conditions and may be ∞\infty∞. The first passage time is TiG≥1T_{iG}\ge1TiG​≥1; miGm_{iG}miG​ is the expectation of TiGT_{iG}TiG​ from its law (and ∞\infty∞ when P(TiG<∞)<1P(T_{iG}<\infty)<1P(TiG​<∞)<1), not defined by the recursion (C.4), so that (C.4) is a theorem. Guik_Gu_{ik}G​uik​ counts visits at times 0≤t<TiG0\le t<T_{iG}0≤t<TiG​. ciGc_{iG}ciG​ is computed over first passage paths and is used only when miG<∞m_{iG}<\inftymiG​<∞, as in the book. πj\pi_jπj​ is (mjj)−1(m_{jj})^{-1}(mjj​)−1, which the book states equals the Cesàro limit lim⁡nQjj(n)\lim_nQ^{(n)}_{jj}limn​Qjj(n)​. Ji(n)J^{(n)}_iJi(n)​ is meaningful for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and limits are taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The drift conditions ∑jPij[y(j)−y(i)]≤−ϵ\sum_jP_{ij}[y(j)-y(i)]\le-\epsilon∑j​Pij​[y(j)−y(i)]≤−ϵ and ∑jPij[r(j)−r(i)]≤−C(i)\sum_jP_{ij}[r(j)-r(i)]\le-C(i)∑j​Pij​[r(j)−r(i)]≤−C(i) are written in the equivalent additive form ∑jPijy(j)+ϵ≤y(i)\sum_jP_{ij}y(j)+\epsilon\le y(i)∑j​Pij​y(j)+ϵ≤y(i), which is equivalent for finite yyy and makes the case ∑jPijy(j)=∞\sum_jP_{ij}y(j)=\infty∑j​Pij​y(j)=∞ fail, as it does in the book.

A trivializing formalization, such as defining miGm_{iG}miG​ or ciGc_{iG}ciG​ by the equations (C.4) or (C.13), defining JRJ_RJR​ as the limit of Ji(n)J^{(n)}_iJi(n)​, or allowing a zzz standard chain whose return time or return cost to zzz is infinite, is ruled out: zzz standard requires miz<∞m_{iz}<\inftymiz​<∞ and ciz<∞c_{iz}<\inftyciz​<∞ for every iii including zzz, and each quantity is defined from path probabilities.

Needed infrastructure: path-sum manipulation in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (first-step and last-step decompositions), the ratio limit / renewal reward theorem for a positive recurrent class, and the delayed version for transient starts. The first passage calculus and the Lyapunov bounds are reusable by the book's other chapters on average cost, which state the zzz standard property for policy-induced chains. Contributions of lemmas on path sums and of an independent renewal reward library are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999, Appendix C, pp. 292–302. doi:10.1002/9780470317037
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, 2nd ed., Springer, 1967. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-62015-7
  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24 (1953), 355–360. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177728976
  • S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 2009. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511626630
  • D. P. Heyman and M. J. Sobel, Stochastic Models in Operations Research, Vol. I, McGraw-Hill, 1982.
12 thms3 active usersReviewed
🏆Completed
Dynamic ProgrammingProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems X: Average Cost Optimization of Continuous Time Markov Decision ChainsTextbook

Motivation

Many queueing systems evolve in continuous time: customers arrive according to a Poisson process, services take exponentially distributed times, and a controller may change the service rate, admit or reject customers, or route them whenever the state changes. Minimizing the long-run average cost of such a system is a standard problem in the control of queues (Lippman 1975; Puterman 1994, Ch. 11; Sennott 1999, Ch. 10). The continuous time model does not fit directly into the discrete time theory of Markov decision chains developed in the earlier chapters of Sennott's book, because time spent in a state now matters and the natural average cost is a ratio of expected cost to expected elapsed time.

This mission formalizes Sections 10.1–10.4 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999): the elementary properties of the exponential distribution, the continuous time Markov decision chain and its average cost, a reduction of the continuous time problem to an auxiliary discrete time Markov decision chain, and the theorem stating that finite state approximating sequences of the auxiliary chain compute optimal average costs and optimal stationary policies of the continuous time chain. The chapter closes with an explicit average cost computation for the M/M/1 queue with service rate control.

Setting

A random variable XXX has the exponential distribution with rate μ>0\mu>0μ>0 if P(X≤t)=1−e−μtP(X\le t)=1-e^{-\mu t}P(X≤t)=1−e−μt for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. A function r(δ)r(\delta)r(δ) is o(δ)o(\delta)o(δ) if r(δ)/δ→0r(\delta)/\delta\to0r(δ)/δ→0 as δ→0+\delta\to0^+δ→0+.

A continuous time Markov decision chain (CTMDC) Ψ\PsiΨ has a countable state space SSS and, for each i∈Si\in Si∈S, a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​. Choosing a∈Aia\in A_ia∈Ai​ in state iii incurs an instantaneous cost G(i,a)≥0G(i,a)\ge0G(i,a)≥0 and a cost rate g(i,a)≥0g(i,a)\ge0g(i,a)≥0 in effect until the next transition. The time until the next transition is exponential with rate ν(i,a)>0\nu(i,a)>0ν(i,a)>0, so its mean is τ(i,a)=1/ν(i,a)\tau(i,a)=1/\nu(i,a)τ(i,a)=1/ν(i,a); the next state is jjj with probability Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a), where Pii(a)=0P_{ii}(a)=0Pii​(a)=0. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses, at each transition, an action (possibly at random) from the history of past states, actions and sojourn times; a stationary policy eee chooses e(i)e(i)e(i) in state iii. With CnC_nCn​ the cost and TnT_nTn​ the time of the first nnn transition periods, the average cost and the minimum average cost are

JθΨ(i)=lim sup⁡n→∞Eθ[Cn∣X0=i]Eθ[Tn∣X0=i],JΨ(i)=inf⁡θJθΨ(i).J^\Psi_\theta(i)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac{E_\theta[C_n\mid X_0=i]}{E_\theta[T_n\mid X_0=i]},\qquad J^\Psi(i)=\inf_\theta J^\Psi_\theta(i).JθΨ​(i)=n→∞limsup​Eθ​[Tn​∣X0​=i]Eθ​[Cn​∣X0​=i]​,JΨ(i)=θinf​JθΨ​(i).

Assumption (CTB) requires constants τ\tauτ and BBB with 0<τ<inf⁡i,aτ(i,a)≤sup⁡i,aτ(i,a)≤B<∞0<\tau<\inf_{i,a}\tau(i,a)\le\sup_{i,a}\tau(i,a)\le B<\infty0<τ<infi,a​τ(i,a)≤supi,a​τ(i,a)≤B<∞. The auxiliary MDC Δ\DeltaΔ has the same states and actions, costs C(i,a)=G(i,a)ν(i,a)+g(i,a)C(i,a)=G(i,a)\nu(i,a)+g(i,a)C(i,a)=G(i,a)ν(i,a)+g(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij∗(a)=τν(i,a)Pij(a)P^*_{ij}(a)=\tau\nu(i,a)P_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a)=τν(i,a)Pij​(a) for j≠ij\ne ij=i, Pii∗(a)=1−τν(i,a)P^*_{ii}(a)=1-\tau\nu(i,a)Pii∗​(a)=1−τν(i,a). Its average cost JθΔ(i)=lim sup⁡nn−1∑t<nEθ[C(Xt,Yt)]J^\Delta_\theta(i)=\limsup_n n^{-1}\sum_{t<n}E_\theta[C(X_t,Y_t)]JθΔ​(i)=limsupn​n−1∑t<n​Eθ​[C(Xt​,Yt​)] and minimum average cost JΔ(i)J^\Delta(i)JΔ(i) are those of Chapter 2. Assumption (CTAC) is JΔ(⋅)≤JΨ(⋅)J^\Delta(\cdot)\le J^\Psi(\cdot)JΔ(⋅)≤JΨ(⋅).

An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0(\Delta_N)_{N\ge N_0}(ΔN​)N≥N0​​ for Δ\DeltaΔ uses finite state spaces SNS_NSN​ increasing to SSS and transition probabilities Pij∗(a;N)P^*_{ij}(a;N)Pij∗​(a;N) on SNS_NSN​ converging to Pij∗(a)P^*_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a). The (AC) assumptions ask for constants JNJ^NJN and functions rNr^NrN on SNS_NSN​ solving

JN+rN(i)=min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑j∈SNPij∗(a;N) rN(j)},i∈SN, N≥N0,(10.21)J^N+r^N(i)=\min_{a\in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S_N}P^*_{ij}(a;N)\,r^N(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S_N,\ N\ge N_0,\tag{10.21}JN+rN(i)=a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∈SN​∑​Pij∗​(a;N)rN(j)},i∈SN​, N≥N0​,(10.21)

with lim sup⁡NrN(i)<∞\limsup_N r^N(i)<\inftylimsupN​rN(i)<∞, lim inf⁡NrN(i)≥−Q\liminf_N r^N(i)\ge-QliminfN​rN(i)≥−Q for a constant Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0, and lim sup⁡NJN=:J∗<∞\limsup_N J^N=:J^*<\inftylimsupN​JN=:J∗<∞, J∗≤JΔ(i)J^*\le J^\Delta(i)J∗≤JΔ(i).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.3.3

Under (CTB), (CTAC) and the (AC) assumptions for an approximating sequence of Δ\DeltaΔ:

J∗=lim⁡N→∞JN exists and JΔ(i)=JΨ(i)=J∗(i∈S),J^*=\lim_{N\to\infty}J^N\ \text{exists and}\ J^\Delta(i)=J^\Psi(i)=J^*\quad(i\in S),J∗=N→∞lim​JN exists and JΔ(i)=JΨ(i)=J∗(i∈S),

and every limit point e∗e^*e∗ of a sequence eNe^NeN of stationary policies realizing the minimum in (10.21) satisfies Je∗Δ=JΔJ^\Delta_{e^*}=J^\DeltaJe∗Δ​=JΔ and Je∗Ψ=JΨJ^\Psi_{e^*}=J^\PsiJe∗Ψ​=JΨ. The goal leaves the chain, the approximating sequence and the constants of (CTB) arbitrary.

Milestones

  • Proposition 10.1.2: P(X>x+y∣X>y)=P(X>x)P(X>x+y\mid X>y)=P(X>x)P(X>x+y∣X>y)=P(X>x) for x,y>0x,y>0x,y>0, and P(X≤δ)=μδ+o(δ)P(X\le\delta)=\mu\delta+o(\delta)P(X≤δ)=μδ+o(δ).
  • Proposition 10.1.3: for independent exponentials, P(X1≤δ,X2≤δ)=o(δ)P(X_1\le\delta,X_2\le\delta)=o(\delta)P(X1​≤δ,X2​≤δ)=o(δ), P(X1<X2)=μ1/(μ1+μ2)P(X_1<X_2)=\mu_1/(\mu_1+\mu_2)P(X1​<X2​)=μ1​/(μ1​+μ2​), and min⁡(X1,X2)\min(X_1,X_2)min(X1​,X2​) is exponential with rate μ1+μ2\mu_1+\mu_2μ1​+μ2​.
  • Lemma 10.3.1: if zzz is bounded below and Zτ(i,e)+z(i)≥G(i,e)+g(i,e)τ(i,e)+∑jPij(e)z(j)Z\tau(i,e)+z(i)\ge G(i,e)+g(i,e)\tau(i,e)+\sum_jP_{ij}(e)z(j)Zτ(i,e)+z(i)≥G(i,e)+g(i,e)τ(i,e)+∑j​Pij​(e)z(j) for all iii (10.15), then JeΨ≤ZJ^\Psi_e\le ZJeΨ​≤Z.
  • Lemma 10.3.2: (Z,w)(Z,w)(Z,w) satisfies Z+w(i)≥C(i,e)+∑jPij∗(e)w(j)Z+w(i)\ge C(i,e)+\sum_jP^*_{ij}(e)w(j)Z+w(i)≥C(i,e)+∑j​Pij∗​(e)w(j) (10.20) if and only if (Z,τw)(Z,\tau w)(Z,τw) satisfies (10.15).
  • Proposition 10.4.1: in the M/M/1 queue with arrival rate λ\lambdaλ, holding cost H(i)=HiH(i)=HiH(i)=Hi and service cost rate c(a)c(a)c(a), the policy that always serves at rate a>λa>\lambdaa>λ has average cost ρac(a)+Hρa/(1−ρa)\rho_ac(a)+H\rho_a/(1-\rho_a)ρa​c(a)+Hρa​/(1−ρa​), ρa=λ/a\rho_a=\lambda/aρa​=λ/a.

Significance

The goal theorem turns the average cost control of a continuous time chain on an infinite state space into a finite computation: solve the optimality equation (10.21) of a finite truncation of the auxiliary chain, let the truncation grow, and read off the optimal average cost and an optimal stationary policy of the original continuous time chain. The auxiliary chain is the book's form of uniformization, and the result is what licenses the numerical study of the M/M/1 service rate control problem in Section 10.4 and of the M/M/K and polling models in Sections 10.5–10.6. Proposition 10.4.1 gives the closed-form benchmark against which the computed optimal policy is compared.

The results are proved in the book, some with details left to the reader (Lemma 10.3.2(ii), Problem 10.10), and the goal rests on Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1 of the same book. None of them has, as far as a search of Mathlib and the Prove2Me catalogue shows, a machine-checked proof: Mathlib provides the exponential law (ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure) and its distribution function, but not memorylessness or the minimum of independent exponentials, and no continuous time Markov decision model. A formalization would supply these, together with a checked average cost comparison between a continuous time chain and its discrete time auxiliary chain.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the two chains policy by policy, but the policy classes differ: a policy for Δ\DeltaΔ may change action in every time slot, including slots where the state does not change, while a policy for Ψ\PsiΨ acts only at transitions and may use the observed sojourn times. Only the stationary policies coincide. The lower bound JΨ≥J∗J^\Psi\ge J^*JΨ≥J∗ therefore cannot be obtained by transferring policies, and it is exactly what Assumption (CTAC) supplies. The upper bound requires passing from the discrete time inequality (10.20) for the limit point e∗e^*e∗ to a bound on a ratio of expected cost to expected time in continuous time, where the denominator depends on the policy; the uniform bounds of (CTB) on the mean sojourn times are what control it. Inside Lemma 10.3.1 the function zzz is only bounded below, so the telescoping of expectations must be justified without integrability of zzz from above.

Formalization scope

The state space is a countable type S, actions a type Act, and action sets A i : Finset Act; the CTMDC and MDC structures hold data, and their axioms (nonempty action sets, nonnegative costs, positive rates, stochastic transition rows with Pii(a)=0P_{ii}(a)=0Pii​(a)=0) are separate predicates. Transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued; costs, rates and the functions z,w,rNz,w,r^Nz,w,rN are real. Expected costs, expected times and all average costs are ℝ≥0∞-valued, so +∞+\infty+∞ is a legitimate value, and they are compared with real constants in EReal; the limits superior and inferior of (AC) are taken in EReal. The expected cost of nnn transition periods under a general policy is a recursion over the periods in which the sojourn time is integrated against expMeasure ν(i,a) and the next state is drawn independently from Pi⋅(a)P_{i\cdot}(a)Pi⋅​(a); policies are measurable in the past sojourn times. In (10.15) and (10.20) the convergence of the series is part of the inequality. The strict inequality τ<inf⁡τ(i,a)\tau<\inf\tau(i,a)τ<infτ(i,a) of (CTB) is kept strict (as a positive margin); weakening it to ≤\le≤ would make Pii∗(a)P^*_{ii}(a)Pii∗​(a) vanish or turn negative.

The average cost JθΨJ^\Psi_\thetaJθΨ​ is a ratio of expectations, not the expectation of a ratio, and the infimum JΨJ^\PsiJΨ ranges over history dependent randomized policies that may use sojourn times; replacing either by a stationary-only class, or dropping (CTAC), gives a different theorem.

A complete development needs: expected rewards of a chain with exponential holding times, the average cost theory of Chapter 8 for the auxiliary chain (Theorem 8.1.1 and Lemma 7.2.1, restated here as needed), and renewal-reward reasoning for Proposition 10.4.1. The exponential-distribution lemmas are reusable beyond this mission and are welcome as independent contributions.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, John Wiley & Sons, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
  • S. A. Lippman, Applying a new device in the optimization of exponential queuing systems, Operations Research 23(4), 687–710, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.23.4.687
  • D. Gross and C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 3rd ed., John Wiley & Sons, 1998.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems IX: Bounded Mean Residual Lifetimes Imply Finite Moments of All OrdersTextbook

Motivation

In a discrete-time queue the service of a customer lasts a random number YYY of slots. When such a system is modelled as a Markov decision chain (Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999, DOI 10.1002/9780470317037, Chapter 9), the state must record how much service is still owed, and the controller only observes that a service has lasted sss slots and is not yet finished. The relevant random quantity is then the residual life YsY_sYs​: the remaining service time given that sss slots have elapsed without completion. Verifying the book's average cost assumptions for such a model requires bounds on expected first passage times and costs, and these reduce to moment bounds on YYY and on the residual lives YsY_sYs​.

Section 9.2 isolates a single condition that makes those bounds available: the expected remaining service time is bounded uniformly in the elapsed time. The concept of mean residual life comes from reliability theory, where YYY is the lifetime of a component and E[Ys]E[Y_s]E[Ys​] is its expected remaining lifetime at age sss. This mission formalizes Section 9.2 of the book, together with the moment computation for batch arrivals (Lemma 9.5.2) that the same verification uses.

Setting

Let YYY be a random variable with values in {1,2,3,… }\{1,2,3,\dots\}{1,2,3,…} and distribution uy=P(Y=y)u_y = P(Y = y)uy​=P(Y=y), y≥1y \ge 1y≥1. Write F(y)=P(Y≤y)F(y) = P(Y \le y)F(y)=P(Y≤y) and F∗(y)=P(Y>y)=1−F(y)F^*(y) = P(Y > y) = 1 - F(y)F∗(y)=P(Y>y)=1−F(y) for y≥0y \ge 0y≥0, so F(0)=0F(0) = 0F(0)=0 and F∗(0)=1F^*(0) = 1F∗(0)=1. The kkk-th moment is

E[Yk]=∑y≥1ykuy∈[0,∞].E[Y^k] = \sum_{y \ge 1} y^k u_y \in [0,\infty].E[Yk]=y≥1∑​ykuy​∈[0,∞].

For s≥0s \ge 0s≥0 with F∗(s)>0F^*(s) > 0F∗(s)>0, the residual life YsY_sYs​ has distribution

P(Ys=y)=P(Y=s+y∣Y>s)=us+yF∗(s),y≥1,P(Y_s = y) = P(Y = s + y \mid Y > s) = \frac{u_{s+y}}{F^*(s)}, \qquad y \ge 1,P(Ys​=y)=P(Y=s+y∣Y>s)=F∗(s)us+y​​,y≥1,

with Y0=YY_0 = YY0​=Y; its tail is Fs∗(y)=F∗(s+y)/F∗(s)F^*_s(y) = F^*(s+y)/F^*(s)Fs∗​(y)=F∗(s+y)/F∗(s), and E[Ys]E[Y_s]E[Ys​] is the mean residual lifetime.

The distribution of YYY has bounded mean residual lifetimes (BMRL-UUU, Definition 9.2.4) if there is a finite constant UUU with

E[Ys]≤Ufor every s≥0 with F∗(s)>0,E[Y_s] \le U \qquad \text{for every } s \ge 0 \text{ with } F^*(s) > 0,E[Ys​]≤Ufor every s≥0 with F∗(s)>0,

and it is BMRL if it is BMRL-UUU for some UUU.

Three families appear by name: the geometric distribution geo(μ)\mathrm{geo}(\mu)geo(μ) of the number of Bernoulli(μ\muμ) trials to the first success, P(Y=y)=μ(1−μ)y−1P(Y=y) = \mu(1-\mu)^{y-1}P(Y=y)=μ(1−μ)y−1; the negative binomial neg bin(μ,r)\mathrm{neg\,bin}(\mu, r)negbin(μ,r) of the number of trials to the rrr-th success, P(Y=y)=(y−1r−1)μr(1−μ)y−rP(Y = y) = \binom{y-1}{r-1}\mu^r(1-\mu)^{y-r}P(Y=y)=(r−1y−1​)μr(1−μ)y−r for y≥ry \ge ry≥r; and the truncated Poisson trun Pois(λ)\mathrm{trun\,Pois}(\lambda)trunPois(λ), P(Y=y)=e−λ1−e−λλyy!P(Y=y) = \frac{e^{-\lambda}}{1-e^{-\lambda}}\frac{\lambda^y}{y!}P(Y=y)=1−e−λe−λ​y!λy​ for y≥1y \ge 1y≥1.

For Lemma 9.5.2, batches of customers arrive in each slot; the batch sizes X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dotsX1​,X2​,… are independent with common distribution pjp_jpj​, mean λ=∑jjpj\lambda = \sum_j j p_jλ=∑j​jpj​ and second moment λ(2)=∑jj2pj\lambda^{(2)} = \sum_j j^2 p_jλ(2)=∑j​j2pj​, and X(s)=X1+⋯+XsX(s) = X_1 + \dots + X_sX(s)=X1​+⋯+Xs​ is the number of arrivals in sss slots.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 9.2.5

If the distribution of YYY is BMRL, then

E[Yk]<∞for every k.E[Y^k] < \infty \qquad \text{for every } k.E[Yk]<∞for every k.

The goal fixes no constant: it asserts only that a uniform first-moment bound on the residual lives forces every moment of YYY to be finite.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 9.2.1. E[Y]=∑y=0∞F∗(y)E[Y] = \sum_{y=0}^\infty F^*(y)E[Y]=∑y=0∞​F∗(y) and, for k≥2k \ge 2k≥2,
E[Yk]=1+∑z=0k−1(kz)[∑y=1∞yzF∗(y)].(9.4)E[Y^k] = 1 + \sum_{z=0}^{k-1}\binom{k}{z}\left[\sum_{y=1}^\infty y^z F^*(y)\right]. \tag{9.4}E[Yk]=1+z=0∑k−1​(zk​)[y=1∑∞​yzF∗(y)].(9.4)
  1. Remark 9.2.2. For k≥2k \ge 2k≥2, E[Yk]<∞E[Y^k] < \inftyE[Yk]<∞ if and only if ∑yyk−1F∗(y)<∞\sum_y y^{k-1}F^*(y) < \infty∑y​yk−1F∗(y)<∞.
  2. Proposition 9.2.3. For a positive integer kkk, E[Yk]<∞E[Y^k] < \inftyE[Yk]<∞ implies E[Ysk]<∞E[Y_s^k] < \inftyE[Ysk​]<∞ for all s≥0s \ge 0s≥0.
  3. Proposition 9.2.6. The geometric (0<μ<10<\mu<10<μ<1), negative binomial (0<μ<10<\mu<10<μ<1, r≥2r \ge 2r≥2) and truncated Poisson (λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0) distributions are BMRL.
  4. Lemma 9.5.2. Under λ(2)<∞\lambda^{(2)} < \inftyλ(2)<∞,
E[X(s)]=λs,E[(X(s))2]=λ(2)s+λ2s(s−1).(9.25)E[X(s)] = \lambda s, \qquad E[(X(s))^2] = \lambda^{(2)}s + \lambda^2 s(s-1). \tag{9.25}E[X(s)]=λs,E[(X(s))2]=λ(2)s+λ2s(s−1).(9.25)

Significance

The result itself. Proposition 9.2.5 turns a condition that is easy to check for concrete service distributions, and natural for services (a service whose expected remaining duration grows without bound as it goes on is undesirable), into the moment bounds that the average cost analysis consumes. With Proposition 9.2.6 it shows that the most common unbounded service distributions on {1,2,… }\{1,2,\dots\}{1,2,…} have finite moments of all orders; with Lemma 9.5.2 it supplies the linear and quadratic growth of expected arrivals and their second moments that the verification of the (WAC) assumptions for the batch-arrival queue of Example 9.3.1 needs (Section 9.5). Every bounded distribution is BMRL as well (the book's Problem 9.3).

Formalizing it. All results here are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof on the platform or in Mathlib, which has geometric and Poisson distributions but no residual lives, negative binomial or truncated Poisson laws. A complete development gives a reusable tail-sum calculus for moments of N\mathbb NN-valued random variables in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], a residual-life construction for discrete distributions, and the BMRL property of three standard families. The platform's mean residual life order (the "Stochastic Orders II" mission, Shaked–Shanthikumar) compares two variables; BMRL is a uniform bound on one variable's residual lives and is not an order, so none of that material states these results.

Difficulty

BMRL controls only first moments, of the conditional laws YsY_sYs​; the goal asks for moments of every order of YYY itself. Bounding E[Yk]E[Y^k]E[Yk] by expanding E[Ys]E[Y_s]E[Ys​] for each fixed sss gives nothing, because each single bound is compatible with a heavy tail: the uniformity in sss is essential. The residual lives are also only defined where P(Y>s)>0P(Y > s) > 0P(Y>s)>0, so every argument must handle distributions with bounded support separately. Proposition 9.2.6 requires explicit control of ratios of tail sums for three families; for the negative binomial and truncated Poisson the tails have no closed form.

Formalization scope

  • YYY is represented by its law, a function u:N→[0,∞]u : \mathbb N \to [0,\infty]u:N→[0,∞] with ∑yuy=1\sum_y u_y = 1∑y​uy​=1 and u0=0u_0 = 0u0​=0 (IsDistOnPos). F∗F^*F∗, moments and residual-life moments are ℝ≥0∞-valued series; an infinite moment is +∞+\infty+∞ and "finite" means <∞< \infty<∞. No Bochner integral is used, so a finite-moment conclusion cannot hold vacuously through an integrability default.
  • The residual life YsY_sYs​ is defined by (9.7) and is used only where F∗(s)>0F^*(s) > 0F∗(s)>0; BMRL-UUU is required exactly at those sss, and UUU is a finite nonnegative real. A formalization requiring the bound at every sss with a junk value of E[Ys]E[Y_s]E[Ys​] where F∗(s)=0F^*(s) = 0F∗(s)=0 is ruled out: the definitions never divide by F∗(s)=0F^*(s) = 0F∗(s)=0 in a used position, and bounded distributions remain BMRL.
  • The geometric and negative binomial laws count trials (support starting at 111 and rrr), not failures as Mathlib's geometricPMF does.
  • Lemma 9.5.2 is stated on a probability space with measurable, mutually independent (iIndepFun) batch sizes of common law ppp, expectations as lower Lebesgue integrals, and only assumption (BA1), λ(2)<∞\lambda^{(2)} < \inftyλ(2)<∞, which is the part of the book's (BA) that concerns arrivals.
  • Welcome contributions: the tail-sum identity (9.4) and its reindexing lemmas, the residual-life tail formula (9.8) and moment formula (9.9), each as a separate lemma; and proofs that the three named families are probability distributions on their supports.

Selected references

  • Linn I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999, Section 9.2 (pp. 202–206) and Section 9.5 (pp. 214–215). DOI 10.1002/9780470317037
  • Moshe Shaked and J. George Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007, Section 2.A (the mean residual life order). DOI 10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VIII: Computing Average Cost Optimal Policies by Approximating SequencesTextbook

Motivation

Control problems for queueing systems (admission control, service rate control, routing to parallel servers) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains whose state is a vector of queue lengths. The state space is therefore denumerably infinite, and the performance measure of interest is usually the long-run average cost per slot. For such models the existence theory of average cost optimal stationary policies is well developed (Chapter 7 of Sennott's book), but existence gives no algorithm: an optimal policy is a function on an infinite set, and value iteration cannot be run on an infinite state space.

The approximating sequence method answers this by replacing the infinite model Δ\DeltaΔ with a sequence of finite models ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ on truncated state spaces SNS_NSN​, solving the average cost optimality equation in each, and passing to the limit. Chapter 8 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999) gives a set of conditions, the (AC) assumptions, under which this limit procedure provably produces the minimum average cost and an average cost optimal policy of Δ\DeltaΔ.

Timeline. The approximating sequence method for the average cost criterion and the (AC) assumptions were introduced in Sennott (1997a), with further results in Sennott (1997b) (bibliographic notes, p. 194). The book collects these results, adds the four step verification template (Proposition 8.2.1), the finite-set augmentation route based on the (BOR) assumptions (Proposition 8.2.3), and the weakening (WAC) of Section 8.7, which Chapter 9 uses.

Setting

An MDC Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS, a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​ in each state iii, a finite cost C(i,a)≥0C(i,a)\ge0C(i,a)≥0, and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A general policy θ\thetaθ chooses actions at random using the whole past history. Its average cost is

Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡n→∞1n∑t=0n−1Eθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i],J_\theta(i)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\sum_{t=0}^{n-1}E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i],Jθ​(i)=n→∞limsup​n1​t=0∑n−1​Eθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i],

and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)∈[0,∞]J(i)=\inf_\theta J_\theta(i)\in[0,\infty]J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i)∈[0,∞]. A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta\equiv JJθ​≡J.

An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0(\Delta_N)_{N\ge N_0}(ΔN​)N≥N0​​ consists of finite sets SNS_NSN​ increasing to SSS and MDCs ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ on SNS_NSN​ with the same actions and costs and with transition probabilities Pij(a;N)P_{ij}(a;N)Pij​(a;N) on SNS_NSN​ converging to Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). Write vnNv^N_nvnN​ and VαNV^N_\alphaVαN​ for the nnn-horizon and discounted value functions of ΔN\Delta_NΔN​.

The (AC) assumptions are:

  • (AC1) there are finite constants JNJ^NJN and finite functions rNr^NrN on SNS_NSN​ with
JN+rN(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑j∈SNPij(a;N) rN(j)},i∈SN;(8.1)J^N+r^N(i)=\min_a\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_{j\in S_N}P_{ij}(a;N)\,r^N(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S_N; \tag{8.1}JN+rN(i)=amin​{C(i,a)+j∈SN​∑​Pij​(a;N)rN(j)},i∈SN​;(8.1)
  • (AC2) lim sup⁡NrN(i)<∞\limsup_N r^N(i)<\inftylimsupN​rN(i)<∞;
  • (AC3) lim inf⁡NrN(i)≥−Q\liminf_N r^N(i)\ge -QliminfN​rN(i)≥−Q for a constant Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0;
  • (AC4) J∗:=lim sup⁡NJN<∞J^*:=\limsup_N J^N<\inftyJ∗:=limsupN​JN<∞ and J∗≤J(i)J^*\le J(i)J∗≤J(i) for all iii.

The (WAC) assumptions of Section 8.7 allow QQQ to depend on the state, at the price of integrability conditions along every stationary policy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.1.1

Under (AC), the limit lim⁡N→∞JN\lim_{N\to\infty}J^NlimN→∞​JN exists and

J(i)=lim⁡N→∞JNfor all i∈S,J(i)=\lim_{N\to\infty}J^N\qquad\text{for all } i\in S,J(i)=N→∞lim​JNfor all i∈S,

and every limit point e∗e^*e∗ of stationary policies eNe^NeN realizing the minimum in (8.1) is average cost optimal for Δ\DeltaΔ. The statement fixes no constants; it asserts the shape of the conclusion for any model satisfying (AC).

Milestones

  • Proposition 8.2.1 (the four step template): unichain and aperiodicity of the finite models, an xxx standard policy at which the approximating sequence is conforming, a comparison of vnNv^N_nvnN​ (or VαNV^N_\alphaVαN​) with vnv_nvn​ (or VαV_\alphaVα​), and a lower bound on vnN−vnN(x)v^N_n - v^N_n(x)vnN​−vnN​(x) together imply that the value iteration limits
rN(i)=lim⁡n→∞(vnN(i)−vnN(x))r^N(i)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\big(v^N_n(i)-v^N_n(x)\big)rN(i)=n→∞lim​(vnN​(i)−vnN​(x))

exist and satisfy (AC).

  • Corollary 8.2.2: on S={0,1,2,… }S=\{0,1,2,\dots\}S={0,1,2,…} with SN={0,…,N}S_N=\{0,\dots,N\}SN​={0,…,N} and excess probability sent to NNN, monotonicity of vnNv^N_nvnN​, vnv_nvn​ and of the first passage moments of a 000 standard policy suffices.
  • Proposition 8.2.3: an augmentation type approximating sequence that sends excess probability to a finite set of cheap states satisfies the template.
  • Proposition 8.5.1: in the single-server queue with Bernoulli(ppp) arrivals and constant service rate a>pa>pa>p,
Jd(a)=Hp(1−p)a−p+pC(a)a.J_{d(a)}=\frac{Hp(1-p)}{a-p}+\frac{pC(a)}{a}.Jd(a)​=a−pHp(1−p)​+apC(a)​.
  • Proposition 8.7.1: the conclusions of Theorem 8.1.1 hold under (WAC).

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 8.1.1 is what turns the existence theory of Chapter 7 into a computation. It certifies that the minimum average costs of the truncations converge to the minimum average cost of the infinite model, that this cost is constant, and that the policies produced by value iteration on ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ converge, along subsequences, to an optimal policy for Δ\DeltaΔ. Propositions 8.2.1–8.2.3 reduce (AC) to properties that can be checked model by model; Section 8.3 checks them for queues with reject option, service rate control, and routing to parallel queues. Proposition 8.7.1 is the version used in Chapter 9 for models whose relative values are not uniformly bounded below. Proposition 8.5.1 gives the closed-form open-loop benchmark used in the numerical study of Section 8.5.

Formalizing it. All results are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would give the first verified convergence theorem for truncations of denumerable-state average cost MDPs, and would make the approximating sequence method usable as a certified reduction from infinite to finite models. The template results (8.2.1–8.2.3) additionally require a formal treatment of conformity of approximating Markov chains (Appendix C.4–C.5), which is of independent use.

Difficulty

The naive argument takes limits in (8.1) along NNN: the minimum over aaa and the finite sums pass to the limit only in the inequality direction, and only after a Fatou-type lemma for sums against the converging distributions Pij(a;N)P_{ij}(a;N)Pij​(a;N) with integrands rNr^NrN that are neither bounded nor monotone. The lower bound −Q-Q−Q in (AC3) is exactly what makes this possible; without it the limit inequality can fail. The limit inequality then produces only an average cost optimality inequality, and turning it into optimality of the limit policy requires a separate argument that a function bounded below and satisfying the inequality yields an upper bound on the average cost. Existence of lim⁡NJN\lim_N J^NlimN​JN is not given: (AC4) controls only the limit superior, and the limit must be identified through every subsequence. For the template results, the difficulty is in the Markov chain side: the convergence of first passage times and costs of the truncated chains, which fails for general approximating sequences (Examples C.4.4, C.4.7).

Formalization scope

The Lean development is in the namespace SennottDP.AvgASM. The state space is any countable type; action sets are Finsets, assumed nonempty; costs are finite and nonnegative (ℝ≥0); transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued, with each row a probability distribution for admissible actions. All value functions and average costs take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞), and every infimum over policies ranges over the full class of history-dependent randomized policies. The JNJ^NJN and rNr^NrN of (AC1) are real; the limits superior and inferior over NNN in (AC2)–(AC4) and (WAC) are taken in EReal, so an unbounded sequence cannot produce a junk finite value. The equality J(i)=lim⁡NJNJ(i)=\lim_N J^NJ(i)=limN​JN is stated in EReal, which also asserts that J(i)J(i)J(i) is finite. Quantities of ΔN\Delta_NΔN​ at states outside SNS_NSN​ are junk values that affect only finitely many NNN for each state.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: JNJ^NJN and rNr^NrN are the witnesses of (AC1), not free variables, the policies eNe^NeN must realize the minimum in (8.1) for those witnesses, and the minimum average cost JJJ is an infimum over all policies, so the goal cannot be satisfied by choosing J∗J^*J∗ or the limit policy.

A complete development needs: the induced process law of a general policy; the average cost optimality inequality argument (Lemma 7.2.1); the finite-state average cost results of Chapter 6 (Propositions 6.4.1, 6.5.1, 6.6.3); a Fatou lemma for converging distributions (Proposition A.2.5); limit points of policy sequences (Proposition B.5); and, for the template results, the theory of zzz standard chains and conformity (Appendix C.2–C.5). The Markov chain layer and the approximating sequence definitions are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any of these intermediate results as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • L. I. Sennott, "The computation of average optimal policies in denumerable state Markov decision chains", Advances in Applied Probability 29 (1997), 114–137 (cited as Sennott (1997a) in the book).
  • L. I. Sennott, "On computing average cost optimal policies with application to routing to parallel queues", ZOR — Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 45 (1997), 45–62 (cited as Sennott (1997b) in the book).
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems IV: Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies Exist for Finite State SpacesTextbook

Why average cost on finite state spaces

Controlled queues, inventories and communication links are run for a long time, and the quantity an operator usually cares about is the long-run average cost per period rather than a discounted total. The average cost criterion is harder to work with than the discounted one: its value is a lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup of Cesàro means, it is not given by a contraction, and for general (history dependent, randomized) policies the limit need not exist. Chapter 6 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999) treats the case of a finite state space, where the strongest results hold: an average cost optimal policy exists, can be taken stationary, and can be obtained as a limit of discount optimal policies as the discount factor tends to one.

The results go back to D. Blackwell, "Discrete dynamic programming", Ann. Math. Statist. 33 (1962), who showed that for finite states and actions some stationary policy is discount optimal for all discount factors close to one. Such a policy is now called Blackwell optimal. Sennott's Chapter 6 derives average cost optimality of this policy and the multichain average cost optimality equation from it, in the notation used throughout the book.

Setting

A Markov decision chain (MDC) Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS, a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​ in each state iii, nonnegative finite costs C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a) with ∑jPij(a)=1\sum_j P_{ij}(a) = 1∑j​Pij​(a)=1. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses the action at time ttt from a distribution θ(⋅∣ht)\theta(\cdot \mid h_t)θ(⋅∣ht​) on AitA_{i_t}Ait​​ that may depend on the whole history ht=(i0,a0,…,it)h_t = (i_0,a_0,\ldots,i_t)ht​=(i0​,a0​,…,it​). A stationary policy fff always chooses a fixed action f(i)∈Aif(i) \in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii.

With Xt,AtX_t, A_tXt​,At​ the state and action at time ttt and X0=iX_0 = iX0​=i, define

  • the discounted cost Vθ,α(i)=∑t≥0αtEθ[C(Xt,At)]V_{\theta,\alpha}(i) = \sum_{t \ge 0} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)]Vθ,α​(i)=∑t≥0​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)] for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, and the discounted value function Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i) = \inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i);
  • the nnn horizon cost vθ,n(i)=∑t=0n−1Eθ[C(Xt,At)]v_{\theta,n}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{n-1} E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)]vθ,n​(i)=∑t=0n−1​Eθ​[C(Xt​,At​)];
  • the average cost Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡nvθ,n(i)/nJ_\theta(i) = \limsup_n v_{\theta,n}(i)/nJθ​(i)=limsupn​vθ,n​(i)/n, its lim inf⁡\liminfliminf version Jθ∗(i)J^*_\theta(i)Jθ∗​(i), and the minimum average cost J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)J(i) = \inf_\theta J_\theta(i)J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i).

All infima range over all general policies, and every quantity may equal +∞+\infty+∞. A policy is α\alphaα discount optimal if Vθ,α=VαV_{\theta,\alpha} = V_\alphaVθ,α​=Vα​, and average cost optimal if Jθ=JJ_\theta = JJθ​=J.

For a stationary policy fff on a finite state space, the induced Markov chain splits into positive recurrent classes R1,…,RKR_1,\ldots,R_KR1​,…,RK​ and transient states. With pk(i)p_k(i)pk​(i) the probability of reaching RkR_kRk​ from iii, distinguished states zk∈Rkz_k \in R_kzk​∈Rk​, and Wα(i)=∑kpk(i)Vα(zk)W_\alpha(i) = \sum_k p_k(i) V_\alpha(z_k)Wα​(i)=∑k​pk​(i)Vα​(zk​), the relative value function is wα(i)=Vα(i)−Wα(i)w_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - W_\alpha(i)wα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Wα​(i).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6.2.3

For an MDC with a finite state space there are α0∈(0,1)\alpha_0 \in (0,1)α0​∈(0,1) and one stationary policy fff such that fff is α\alphaα discount optimal for every α∈(α0,1)\alpha \in (\alpha_0,1)α∈(α0​,1), fff is average cost optimal, and

J(i)=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Vα(i)=lim⁡n→∞vf,n(i)n,i∈S.J(i) = \lim_{\alpha\to 1^-} (1-\alpha) V_\alpha(i) = \lim_{n\to\infty} \frac{v_{f,n}(i)}{n}, \qquad i \in S.J(i)=α→1−lim​(1−α)Vα​(i)=n→∞lim​nvf,n​(i)​,i∈S.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4.5.3. For finite SSS and stationary eee, α↦Ve,α(i)\alpha \mapsto V_{e,\alpha}(i)α↦Ve,α​(i) is a finite, continuous, rational function on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).
  2. Proposition 6.1.1. For every policy on a countable state space,
Jθ∗(i)≤lim inf⁡α→1−(1−α)Vθ,α(i)≤lim sup⁡α→1−(1−α)Vθ,α(i)≤Jθ(i),J^*_\theta(i) \le \liminf_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i) \le \limsup_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i) \le J_\theta(i),Jθ∗​(i)≤α→1−liminf​(1−α)Vθ,α​(i)≤α→1−limsup​(1−α)Vθ,α​(i)≤Jθ​(i),

with three equivalent conditions for equality. 3. Proposition 6.2.2. For finite SSS and stationary eee, Je(i)=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Ve,α(i)=lim⁡nve,n(i)/nJ_e(i) = \lim_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_{e,\alpha}(i) = \lim_n v_{e,n}(i)/nJe​(i)=limα→1−​(1−α)Ve,α​(i)=limn​ve,n​(i)/n. 4. Proposition 4.5.1, Proposition 4.5.4, Corollary 4.5.5. The power series structure of Vθ,αV_{\theta,\alpha}Vθ,α​ in α\alphaα; monotonicity and left continuity of VαV_\alphaVα​; continuity under bounded costs. 5. Theorem 6.3.1. For the policy fff of the goal, lim⁡α→1−wα(i)=w(i)\lim_{\alpha \to 1^-} w_\alpha(i) = w(i)limα→1−​wα​(i)=w(i) exists, and

J(i)+w(i)=C(i,f)+∑jPij(f)w(j) ≥ min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)w(j)},J(i) + w(i) = C(i,f) + \sum_j P_{ij}(f) w(j) \ \ge\ \min_{a} \Big\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a) w(j)\Big\},J(i)+w(i)=C(i,f)+j∑​Pij​(f)w(j) ≥ amin​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)w(j)},

together with the limit identities (i)–(iii) and the optimality criterion (v). 6. Proposition 6.3.3. Vα(i)=J(i)/(1−α)+w∗(i)+εα(i)V_\alpha(i) = J(i)/(1-\alpha) + w^*(i) + \varepsilon_\alpha(i)Vα​(i)=J(i)/(1−α)+w∗(i)+εα​(i) with εα(i)→0\varepsilon_\alpha(i) \to 0εα​(i)→0 as α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1−.

Significance

The goal says that on a finite state space nothing is gained by randomizing or by remembering the past when minimizing average cost, and that the minimum average cost is the vanishing-discount limit of the discounted value function. This justifies computing average cost optimal policies through discounted problems and value iteration, the route taken in the rest of Chapter 6 and, via approximating sequences, for countable state spaces in Chapters 7 and 8. Theorem 6.3.1 supplies an optimality equation without any unichain or communication assumption. The book's Example 6.3.2 shows that the inequality in that equation can be strict, and that a stationary policy attaining the minimum need not be optimal.

The results are classical and proved in the book. No machine-checked version of them is known to exist. The platform has average-reward results for unichain finite MDPs with Markov policies (the Puterman series) and an average-cost optimality equation under recurrence assumptions (the Bertsekas series). Neither covers existence of a Blackwell optimal policy against the class of all history dependent randomized policies, or the multichain equation. A formal development also yields reusable infrastructure: the law of a controlled process under a general policy, first passage quantities of finite chains, and the Abelian inequality between Abel and Cesàro means of a nonnegative sequence.

Difficulty

The obvious argument picks, for each α\alphaα, a stationary discount optimal policy fαf_\alphafα​ and lets α→1\alpha \to 1α→1. Finiteness of the set of stationary policies gives one policy that is optimal along some sequence αn→1\alpha_n \to 1αn​→1, but not on an interval. Excluding infinite switching between two policies requires the analytic structure of α↦Vf,α(i)\alpha \mapsto V_{f,\alpha}(i)α↦Vf,α​(i) (Proposition 4.5.3), which in turn rests on matrix inversion of I−αPI - \alpha PI−αP. Passing from the discounted criterion to the average one requires an Abelian inequality for nonnegative series whose terms may be infinite (Proposition 6.1.1), and comparison against general policies rules out any argument that works only within stationary or Markov policies. For Theorem 6.3.1 the difficulty is the multichain structure: the relative value function has to be assembled class by class from first passage times and costs, and its limit must be identified.

Formalization scope

  • States form a type S; [Countable S] for Section 4.5 and Proposition 6.1.1, [Fintype S] from Section 6.2 on, as in the book. Actions form a type Act with A i : Finset Act nonempty. Costs are in ℝ≥0, transition probabilities in ℝ≥0∞.
  • A general policy is a function of the list of past state-action pairs (most recent first) and the current state, giving a distribution on A i. Stationary policies embed as degenerate policies. The law of the process is built from this data, and every infimum ranges over all general policies.
  • Vθ,αV_{\theta,\alpha}Vθ,α​, VαV_\alphaVα​, vθ,nv_{\theta,n}vθ,n​, JθJ_\thetaJθ​, Jθ∗J^*_\thetaJθ∗​, JJJ are in ℝ≥0∞, so +∞+\infty+∞ is represented. α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1− is the filter 𝓝[<] 1. On a finite state space these quantities are finite. The real valued objects of Section 6.3 (wαw_\alphawα​, www, w∗w^*w∗, equation (6.6)) are therefore formed with toReal, and this switch from ℝ≥0∞ to ℝ happens only in Theorem 6.3.1 and Proposition 6.3.3.
  • The objects of Section 6.3 (pkp_kpk​, mi∣km_{i|k}mi∣k​, ci∣kc_{i|k}ci∣k​, πs\pi_sπs​, WαW_\alphaWα​) are defined from fff. The distinguished states are a hypothesis quantified over.
  • A trivializing formalization would take the infimum over stationary policies only, let the optimal policy depend on α\alphaα, or state rationality as an equation p/q without requiring q≠0q \ne 0q=0. Each is excluded here: JJJ and VαV_\alphaVα​ are infima over all general policies, one pair (α0,f)(\alpha_0,f)(α0​,f) is quantified before all α\alphaα, and the denominator is required to be nonzero on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

Useful infrastructure includes rational functions of one real variable and their finitely many sign changes, the resolvent (I−αP)−1(I-\alpha P)^{-1}(I−αP)−1 of a stochastic matrix, the Abelian inequality for [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued sequences, and renewal-reward identities for finite chains. Contributions of general lemmas on these topics are welcome, as are proofs of individual milestones.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • D. Blackwell, "Discrete dynamic programming", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1962), 719–726. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Dynamic ProgrammingProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems II: The Discount Optimality EquationTextbook

Motivation

Control problems for queueing systems (admission control, routing, service rate selection, inventory replenishment) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains with a countable state space, such as the number of customers in a buffer, and with costs that grow without bound in the state, such as holding costs proportional to queue length. The expected discounted cost criterion is the first infinite horizon criterion applied to such models, and it is also the tool through which the average cost criterion is treated later in the same book (Chapters 6–8 of Sennott's text reach average cost optimal policies through limits of discounted problems as the discount factor tends to one).

Classical treatments of discounted dynamic programming assume bounded costs, under which the dynamic programming operator is a contraction and has a unique bounded fixed point. That assumption fails for queueing models. This mission formalizes Chapter 4, Sections 4.1–4.4, of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999), which develops the discounted theory for nonnegative, possibly unbounded costs, where value functions may be infinite.

Timeline of the underlying theory:

  • 1965. Blackwell (Ann. Math. Statist. 36) establishes the discounted theory with bounded rewards.
  • 1966. Strauch (Ann. Math. Statist. 37) treats "negative" dynamic programming, the case of nonpositive rewards (equivalently nonnegative costs), with no boundedness assumption.
  • 1977–1978. Bertsekas (SIAM J. Control Optim. 15) and Bertsekas and Shreve (Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case) give the abstract monotone-mapping framework covering both cases.
  • 1999. Sennott's text states the countable-state, finite-action, nonnegative-cost discounted theory in the form used for queueing control, with general history-dependent randomized policies.

Setting

A Markov decision chain Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS; for each state iii a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​; for each a∈Aia \in A_ia∈Ai​ a nonnegative finite cost C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a) and a probability distribution (Pij(a))j∈S(P_{ij}(a))_{j \in S}(Pij​(a))j∈S​ of the next state. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses the action at time nnn at random from a distribution θ(⋅∣hn)\theta(\cdot \mid h_n)θ(⋅∣hn​) on AinA_{i_n}Ain​​ that may depend on the entire history hn=(i0,a0,…,an−1,in)h_n = (i_0, a_0, \dots, a_{n-1}, i_n)hn​=(i0​,a0​,…,an−1​,in​). A stationary policy fff always chooses f(i)∈Aif(i) \in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii; for it one writes C(i,f)=C(i,f(i))C(i,f) = C(i,f(i))C(i,f)=C(i,f(i)) and Pij(f)=Pij(f(i))P_{ij}(f) = P_{ij}(f(i))Pij​(f)=Pij​(f(i)).

Fix a discount factor α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1). For an initial state iii and a policy θ\thetaθ, the nnn-horizon cost with terminal cost zero and the infinite horizon discounted cost are

vθ,α,n(i)=∑t=0n−1αtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i],Vθ,α(i)=∑t=0∞αtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i],v_{\theta,\alpha,n}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{n-1} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i], \qquad V_{\theta,\alpha}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{\infty} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i],vθ,α,n​(i)=t=0∑n−1​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i],Vθ,α​(i)=t=0∑∞​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i],

and the value functions are vα,n(i)=inf⁡θvθ,α,n(i)v_{\alpha,n}(i) = \inf_\theta v_{\theta,\alpha,n}(i)vα,n​(i)=infθ​vθ,α,n​(i) and Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i) = \inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), infima over all policies. All of these lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. A policy is discount optimal if Vθ,α=VαV_{\theta,\alpha} = V_\alphaVθ,α​=Vα​. The discount optimality equation is

W(i)=min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+α∑jPij(a)W(j)},i∈S.(4.9)W(i) = \min_{a \in A_i} \Big\{ C(i,a) + \alpha \sum_j P_{ij}(a) W(j) \Big\}, \qquad i \in S. \tag{4.9}W(i)=a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+αj∑​Pij​(a)W(j)},i∈S.(4.9)

With W=VαW = V_\alphaW=Vα​, Bi(α)B_i(\alpha)Bi​(α) denotes the set of actions attaining the minimum at iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1.4

VαV_\alphaVα​ solves (4.9); every W:S→[0,∞]W : S \to [0,\infty]W:S→[0,∞] solving (4.9) satisfies Vα≤WV_\alpha \le WVα​≤W; and every stationary policy fαf_\alphafα​ with

C(i,fα)+α∑jPij(fα)Vα(j)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+α∑jPij(a)Vα(j)}for all iC(i,f_\alpha) + \alpha \sum_j P_{ij}(f_\alpha) V_\alpha(j) = \min_a \Big\{ C(i,a) + \alpha \sum_j P_{ij}(a) V_\alpha(j) \Big\} \quad \text{for all } iC(i,fα​)+αj∑​Pij​(fα​)Vα​(j)=amin​{C(i,a)+αj∑​Pij​(a)Vα​(j)}for all i

is discount optimal. No boundedness of costs and no finiteness of VαV_\alphaVα​ is assumed.

Milestones

In attack order: Lemma 4.1.1 (vθ,α,n↑Vθ,αv_{\theta,\alpha,n} \uparrow V_{\theta,\alpha}vθ,α,n​↑Vθ,α​); Proposition 4.1.2 (a supersolution of the one-policy equation dominates ve,α,n+αnEe[W(Xn)]v_{e,\alpha,n} + \alpha^n E_e[W(X_n)]ve,α,n​+αnEe​[W(Xn​)] and Ve,αV_{e,\alpha}Ve,α​); Corollary 4.1.3 (a supersolution of the optimality inequality dominates Vf,α≥VαV_{f,\alpha} \ge V_\alphaVf,α​≥Vα​); then, beyond the goal, Corollary 4.1.5 (αnEfα[Vα(Xn)∣X0=i]→0\alpha^n E_{f_\alpha}[V_\alpha(X_n) \mid X_0 = i] \to 0αnEfα​​[Vα​(Xn​)∣X0​=i]→0 where Vα(i)<∞V_\alpha(i) < \inftyVα​(i)<∞), Proposition 4.2.2 and Corollary 4.2.4 (conditions under which a solution of (4.9) equals VαV_\alphaVα​), Proposition 4.3.1 (vα,n↑Vαv_{\alpha,n} \uparrow V_\alphavα,n​↑Vα​, and limit points of finite horizon optimal stationary policies are discount optimal) and Proposition 4.4.1 (optimal policies are exactly those concentrated on the sets Bi(α)B_{i}(\alpha)Bi​(α) along histories of positive probability).

Significance

Theorem 4.1.4 is the foundation for everything in the book that concerns discounted costs: it produces an optimal stationary deterministic policy, identifies VαV_\alphaVα​ among the many solutions of (4.9) (Example 4.2.1 of the book gives a one-parameter family of finite solutions), and underlies value iteration (Proposition 4.3.1) and the approximating-sequence method of Sections 4.6–4.7. The average cost results of Chapters 6–8 are proved from it by letting α→1\alpha \to 1α→1. Proposition 4.4.1 describes the full set of optimal policies, including randomized and history-dependent ones.

These are known results with published proofs. The contribution of this mission is a machine-checked development of the discounted theory for countable state spaces with unbounded costs and infinite values, over the general policy class. Related statements on the platform (the monotone-mapping propositions of Bertsekas 1977 in the MonotoneDP missions, and bounded-cost or finite-state discounted results) use different models and are open; no machine-checked proof of the present statements is known to this mission.

Difficulty

The contraction argument that settles the bounded case is unavailable: with unbounded costs the operator in (4.9) has many fixed points, and VαV_\alphaVα​ can equal +∞+\infty+∞ at some states, so neither uniqueness of fixed points nor subtraction of values is available. The optimality equation compares the infimum over all history-dependent randomized policies with a one-step minimum, so the general policy class and the law of the process under it must be handled directly; restricting attention to Markov or stationary policies begs the question. Every limit exchange (monotone limits of finite horizon costs, the passage to limit points of policies in Proposition 4.3.1) takes place in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], where finite-valued arguments do not transfer verbatim.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace SennottDP.Discounted. Conventions:

  • The state space is a type S with [Countable S]; actions form a type Act and A i : Finset Act is nonempty. Costs are ℝ≥0; transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞ with ∑' j, P i a j = 1 for a ∈ A i.
  • A history at time nnn is a pair Fin (n+1) → S, Fin n → Act; a policy assigns to every history a distribution on the action set of its last state. The probability of a history is the product of the policy and transition probabilities; expectations are ℝ≥0∞ sums over histories, so no integrability conditions arise.
  • All values (vθ,α,nv_{\theta,\alpha,n}vθ,α,n​, Vθ,αV_{\theta,\alpha}Vθ,α​, vα,nv_{\alpha,n}vα,n​, VαV_\alphaVα​, and the competing solutions WWW) are ℝ≥0∞-valued; 0⋅∞=00 \cdot \infty = 00⋅∞=0. The discount factor is α : ℝ≥0 with 0 < α and α < 1. Terminal costs are zero.
  • VαV_\alphaVα​ and vα,nv_{\alpha,n}vα,n​ are infima over the type of all general policies. Defining them over stationary policies only would make the optimality of fαf_\alphafα​ a tautology; that formalization is ruled out.
  • Proposition 4.4.1: the book states the equivalence without a finiteness assumption, but its necessity argument needs Vα<∞V_\alpha < \inftyVα​<∞, and necessity fails otherwise. Sufficiency is stated in general and necessity under Vα<∞V_\alpha < \inftyVα​<∞ everywhere.

Useful infrastructure, reusable by the later missions of this series (approximating sequences, average cost): the shift of a general policy after its first step, the Chapman–Kolmogorov identity for the history law, and the computation Ef[W(Xn+1)]=Ef[∑jPXnj(f)W(j)]E_f[W(X_{n+1})] = E_f[\sum_j P_{X_n j}(f) W(j)]Ef​[W(Xn+1​)]=Ef​[∑j​PXn​j​(f)W(j)] for stationary policies. Contributions of such lemmas, and proofs of any milestone, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999, Chapter 4. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • D. Blackwell, Discounted dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36 (1965), 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • R. E. Strauch, Negative dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37 (1966), 871–890. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Monotone mappings with application in dynamic programming, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 15 (1977), 438–464. https://doi.org/10.1137/0315031
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Dynamic ProgrammingProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems I: Finite Horizon Optimality and Approximating SequencesTextbook

Motivation

Controlled queueing systems (admission control, routing, service-rate selection) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains whose state is a buffer content and therefore ranges over a countably infinite set. Linn Sennott's Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, DOI 10.1002/9780470317037) develops the dynamic programming theory for exactly this setting: countable state space, finite action sets, nonnegative and possibly unbounded costs, and value functions that are allowed to be infinite. The book's computational method, the approximating sequence method (ASM), replaces the infinite chain by a sequence of finite truncations and asks when optimal values and policies of the truncations converge to those of the original chain.

This mission is the first of a series on the book. It covers Chapter 3, finite horizon optimization, together with the model of Chapter 2 and three results from Appendices A and B that the chapter uses. The finite horizon theory is the entry point: it is where the book's general policy class, its extended-valued cost criteria and its approximating sequences are first used together.

Setting

A Markov decision chain Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS; for each i∈Si \in Si∈S a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​; a finite cost C(i,a)≥0C(i,a) \ge 0C(i,a)≥0; and for each a∈Aia \in A_ia∈Ai​ a transition distribution (Pij(a))j∈S(P_{ij}(a))_{j \in S}(Pij​(a))j∈S​. A history at time ttt is ht=(i0,a0,…,it−1,at−1,it)h_t = (i_0, a_0, \dots, i_{t-1}, a_{t-1}, i_t)ht​=(i0​,a0​,…,it−1​,at−1​,it​), and a general policy θ\thetaθ chooses the action at time ttt from a distribution θ(⋅∣ht)\theta(\cdot \mid h_t)θ(⋅∣ht​) on AitA_{i_t}Ait​​: it may use the whole history and may randomize. Stationary policies fff (f(i)∈Aif(i) \in A_if(i)∈Ai​) and deterministic Markov policies (a stationary policy for each time) are special cases.

Fix a finite terminal cost F≥0F \ge 0F≥0 and a discount factor 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1 (α=1\alpha = 1α=1 is the undiscounted case). The nnn horizon expected discounted cost of θ\thetaθ from initial state iii is

vθ,α,n(i)=∑t=0n−1αtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]+αnEθ[F(Xn)∣X0=i],v_{\theta,\alpha,n}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{n-1} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i] + \alpha^n E_\theta[F(X_n) \mid X_0 = i],vθ,α,n​(i)=t=0∑n−1​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i]+αnEθ​[F(Xn​)∣X0​=i],

and the value function is vα,n(i)=inf⁡θvθ,α,n(i)v_{\alpha,n}(i) = \inf_\theta v_{\theta,\alpha,n}(i)vα,n​(i)=infθ​vθ,α,n​(i) over all general policies. Both may be +∞+\infty+∞. A policy is optimal for the nnn horizon if it attains vα,n(i)v_{\alpha,n}(i)vα,n​(i) at every iii. For n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 put uα,n(i,a)=C(i,a)+α∑jPij(a)vα,n−1(j)u_{\alpha,n}(i,a) = C(i,a) + \alpha \sum_j P_{ij}(a) v_{\alpha,n-1}(j)uα,n​(i,a)=C(i,a)+α∑j​Pij​(a)vα,n−1​(j) and let Bi(α,n)B_i(\alpha,n)Bi​(α,n) be the set of a∈Aia \in A_ia∈Ai​ minimizing it.

An approximating sequence (ΔN)N≥N0(\Delta_N)_{N \ge N_0}(ΔN​)N≥N0​​ has finite nonempty state spaces SNS_NSN​ increasing to SSS, the same actions and costs, and transition distributions Pij(a;N)P_{ij}(a;N)Pij​(a;N) on SNS_NSN​ converging to Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a) as N→∞N \to \inftyN→∞. Its value functions are vα,nNv^N_{\alpha,n}vα,nN​. In an augmentation type approximating sequence, the probability Pir(a)P_{ir}(a)Pir​(a) of leaving SNS_NSN​ to rrr is redistributed over SNS_NSN​ by an augmentation distribution qj(i,a,r,N)q_j(i,a,r,N)qj​(i,a,r,N). Assumption FH(α\alphaα, nnn) requires lim sup⁡Nvα,nN(i)\limsup_N v^N_{\alpha,n}(i)limsupN​vα,nN​(i) to be finite and at most vα,n(i)v_{\alpha,n}(i)vα,n​(i) for every iii. A stationary policy eee is a limit point of stationary policies eNe^NeN if, along a subsequence, eNr(i)=e(i)e^{N_r}(i) = e(i)eNr​(i)=e(i) eventually for each iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2.3

For fixed n≥1n \ge 1n≥1,

(∀i: lim⁡N→∞vα,nN(i)=vα,n(i)<∞)  ⟺  FH(α,n),\Big(\forall i:\ \lim_{N\to\infty} v^N_{\alpha,n}(i) = v_{\alpha,n}(i) < \infty\Big) \iff \mathrm{FH}(\alpha,n),(∀i: N→∞lim​vα,nN​(i)=vα,n​(i)<∞)⟺FH(α,n),

and under either condition every limit point ene_nen​ of stationary policies enNe^N_nenN​ with enN(i)∈BiN(α,n)e^N_n(i) \in B^N_i(\alpha,n)enN​(i)∈BiN​(α,n) satisfies en(i)∈Bi(α,n)e_n(i) \in B_i(\alpha,n)en​(i)∈Bi​(α,n) for all i∈Si \in Si∈S.

Milestones

  1. Proposition A.1.1: a probability average of uuu is at least min⁡u\min uminu, with equality iff the distribution is concentrated on the minimizers.
  2. Theorem 3.1.2: the finite horizon optimality equation vα,n(i)=min⁡auα,n(i,a)v_{\alpha,n}(i) = \min_a u_{\alpha,n}(i,a)vα,n​(i)=mina​uα,n​(i,a), and the characterization of all optimal general policies.
  3. Corollary 3.1.4: choosing fn−t(i)∈Bi(α,n−t)f_{n-t}(i) \in B_i(\alpha,n-t)fn−t​(i)∈Bi​(α,n−t) yields an optimal deterministic Markov policy.
  4. Proposition 2.5.6: the augmentation (2.19) defines an approximating distribution.
  5. Lemma 3.2.2: vα,0N→vα,0v^N_{\alpha,0} \to v_{\alpha,0}vα,0N​→vα,0​ and lim inf⁡Nvα,nN≥vα,n\liminf_N v^N_{\alpha,n} \ge v_{\alpha,n}liminfN​vα,nN​≥vα,n​.
  6. Propositions B.3 and B.5: sequences of stationary policies, for Δ\DeltaΔ or for (ΔN)(\Delta_N)(ΔN​), have limit points.
  7. Propositions 3.3.1, 3.3.2 and 3.3.4: three sufficient conditions for FH(α\alphaα, nnn), namely bounded costs, an augmentation sending excess probability to a finite set, and the augmentation inequality (3.20).

Significance

Theorem 3.1.2 is the finite horizon dynamic programming equation in the generality the rest of the book needs: the value function is an infimum over history-dependent randomized policies, and the equation holds with infinite values allowed. Its characterization of optimal policies is Bellman's principle of optimality in necessary-and-sufficient form. Corollary 3.1.4 shows that deterministic Markov policies suffice. The discounted chapter builds on these results, since its value function is the limit of finite horizon ones, and so does the value iteration algorithm of the average cost chapters.

Theorem 3.2.3 is the finite horizon case of the approximating sequence method. It says exactly when finite truncations give the right answer, and it reduces the question to Assumption FH, for which Section 3.3 gives checkable conditions. The same structure (a lim inf inequality, a lim sup assumption, a limit point of optimal truncated policies) recurs for the discounted and the average cost criteria in later chapters.

The results are proved in the book. None of them is formalized: the platform has finite horizon dynamic programming only for Markov policies, abstract monotone mappings or finite reward-maximizing MDPs, and nothing on approximating sequences. A formalization contributes a Lean model of Markov decision chains with general policies and extended-valued criteria, which the later missions of the series restate and can merge with this one.

Difficulty

The obvious proof of the optimality equation conditions on the first action and state and then applies the induction hypothesis to the rest of the trajectory. With general policies the rest of the trajectory is governed by a continuation policy that depends on the first state and action, and the decomposition of the path law into a first step and a continuation must be proved from the definition of the process, not assumed. Infinite values also make the "only if" direction delicate: a strict inequality between expected costs becomes an equality once both sides are infinite.

For approximating sequences, the natural idea is to pass to the limit in the optimality equation of ΔN\Delta_NΔN​. This fails in general. Example 3.2.1 of the book has lim⁡Nv1,2N(0)=2>1=v1,2(0)\lim_N v^N_{1,2}(0) = 2 > 1 = v_{1,2}(0)limN​v1,2N​(0)=2>1=v1,2​(0), because truncation moves probability onto states of high cost and dominated convergence is not available. Only the lim inf inequality holds for free, through a generalized Fatou lemma for approximating distributions. The lim sup side is exactly what Assumption FH supplies. The limit point argument then needs the compactness statement of Appendix B and the fact that a lim inf can be passed through a minimum over a finite set.

Formalization scope

The state space is a type S with [Countable S], the actions a type Act, and A i : Finset Act is nonempty. Costs are ℝ≥0, transition probabilities ℝ≥0∞ summing to 1 over S, and all values and expectations are in ℝ≥0∞, so infima over policies are lattice infima and +∞ is a genuine value. A history is the list of past state–action pairs, most recent first, with the current state, and a policy gives a distribution on A i for every history. Expectations are sums over histories of the path probabilities ∏θ(as∣hs)Pisis+1(as)\prod \theta(a_s \mid h_s) P_{i_s i_{s+1}}(a_s)∏θ(as​∣hs​)Pis​is+1​​(as​), which is the book's (2.6) and (2.9), not the dynamic programming recursion. The discount factor satisfies 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1 in every statement. An approximating sequence is indexed by N∈NN \in \mathbb NN∈N with a start level N0N_0N0​; its value functions are set to 000 for the finitely many NNN at which a given state is not yet in SNS_NSN​, which does not affect limits.

The optimality equation must not be made definitional by defining vθ,α,nv_{\theta,\alpha,n}vθ,α,n​ or vα,nv_{\alpha,n}vα,n​ through the recursion (3.2). The policy class must not be restricted to deterministic Markov policies either, since that would make the characterization in Theorem 3.1.2 a different statement. Theorem 3.1.2(ii)(2) is stated with the guard vα,n(i)<∞v_{\alpha,n}(i) < \inftyvα,n​(i)<∞; the book omits it, and without it the "only if" direction is false (see the item's note).

A complete development needs the first-step decomposition of the path law under a general policy, the generalized Fatou lemma for approximating distributions (Proposition A.2.5, a milestone of the Appendix A mission of this series), and lim inf / lim sup manipulations in ℝ≥0∞. The model definitions are reusable by every later mission of the series. Contributions are welcome at every milestone, including proofs of the definitional sanity facts (for instance vθ,α,0=Fv_{\theta,\alpha,0} = Fvθ,α,0​=F).

Selected references

  • Linn I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • Martin L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994 (the standard reference for finite horizon dynamic programming with history-dependent randomized policies).
  • Richard Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatorics·Captain: mikedeng1

Theory of Games and Economic Behavior II: Games with Perfect Information Are Strictly DeterminedTextbook

Motivation

Chess, checkers, Go and Backgammon share a feature that card games such as Poker lack: whenever a player moves, the player knows everything that has happened so far. von Neumann and Morgenstern call this perfect information and devote §15 of Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (1944; 3rd ed. 1953) to it. Their result is that such a game, viewed as a zero-sum two-person game, is strictly determined: it has a value that each player can secure with a pure strategy, without any randomization. For Chess this means that exactly one of three statements is true: White can force a win, Black can force a win, or both can force at least a draw ((15:D:a)–(15:D:c)).

Timeline. Zermelo (1913, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels) showed for Chess that either one side can force a win or both can avoid losing; his argument is not phrased in terms of strategies and a value, and was later corrected and completed by König (1927) and Kalmár (1928/29). von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944, §15) proved strict determinateness for every finite zero-sum two-person game with perfect information, including chance moves (15.7.1), and gave the explicit formula (15:12) for the value. Kuhn (1953, Extensive games and the problem of information, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28) recast games in tree form and extended the pure-strategy existence result to general-sum games with perfect information (subgame-perfect equilibria by backward induction).

Setting

A game tree Γ\GammaΓ is a finite rooted tree. Each leaf is a finished play π\piπ and carries the payoff F1(π)∈R\mathfrak F_1(\pi) \in \mathbb RF1​(π)∈R to player 1; player 2 receives −F1(π)-\mathfrak F_1(\pi)−F1​(π). Each internal node is a move M\mathfrak MM of one of three kinds kkk, with alternatives σ=1,…,α\sigma = 1, \dots, \alphaσ=1,…,α leading to subtrees Γσ\Gamma_\sigmaΓσ​:

  • k=0k = 0k=0, a chance move, where alternative σ\sigmaσ occurs with probability p(σ)≧0p(\sigma) \geqq 0p(σ)≧0, ∑σp(σ)=1\sum_\sigma p(\sigma) = 1∑σ​p(σ)=1;
  • k=1k = 1k=1, a personal move of player 1, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1;
  • k=2k = 2k=2, a personal move of player 2, with α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1.

A pure strategy τ1\tau_1τ1​ of player 1 is a complete plan choosing an alternative at every node of kind 1; τ2\tau_2τ2​ does the same at every node of kind 2. The normalized form H(τ1,τ2)\mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2)H(τ1​,τ2​) is the expected payoff to player 1, the expectation being over the chance moves. With the maxima and minima taken over the finitely many pure strategies,

v1=Max⁡τ1Min⁡τ2H(τ1,τ2),v2=Min⁡τ2Max⁡τ1H(τ1,τ2).v_1 = \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2), \qquad v_2 = \operatorname{Min}_{\tau_2} \operatorname{Max}_{\tau_1} \mathcal H(\tau_1, \tau_2).v1​=Maxτ1​​Minτ2​​H(τ1​,τ2​),v2​=Minτ2​​Maxτ1​​H(τ1​,τ2​).

Always v1≦v2v_1 \leqq v_2v1​≦v2​; the game is strictly determined when v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ (14.4.2).

For a function f(σ1)f(\sigma_1)f(σ1​) of the alternatives of the first move M1\mathfrak M_1M1​, of kind k1k_1k1​, the operation Mσ1k1M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1}Mσ1​k1​​ of (15:8) is ∑σ1p1(σ1)f(σ1)\sum_{\sigma_1} p_1(\sigma_1) f(\sigma_1)∑σ1​​p1​(σ1​)f(σ1​), Max⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Maxσ1​​f(σ1​) or Min⁡σ1f(σ1)\operatorname{Min}_{\sigma_1} f(\sigma_1)Minσ1​​f(σ1​) for k1=0,1,2k_1 = 0, 1, 2k1​=0,1,2. Applying these operations from the leaves back to the root gives the backward-induction value v(Γ)v(\Gamma)v(Γ).

Formalization targets

Goal: 15.6.1 with (15:12)

For every finite game tree Γ\GammaΓ,

v1=v2=v=Mσ1k1Mσ2k2(σ1)⋯Mσνkν(σ1,…,σν−1)F1(π(σ1,…,σν)).v_1 = v_2 = v = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} M^{k_2(\sigma_1)}_{\sigma_2} \cdots M^{k_\nu(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_{\nu-1})}_{\sigma_\nu} \mathfrak F_1(\pi(\sigma_1, \dots, \sigma_\nu)).v1​=v2​=v=Mσ1​k1​​Mσ2​k2​(σ1​)​⋯Mσν​kν​(σ1​,…,σν−1​)​F1​(π(σ1​,…,σν​)).

Both the equality v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ and the value formula are part of the goal.

Milestones

  • (13:E): for finite nonempty domains and fff ranging over all functions of xxx, Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Min⁡fMax⁡xψ(x,f(x))\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Min}_f \operatorname{Max}_x \psi(x, f(x))Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Minf​Maxx​ψ(x,f(x)); and (13:G): Max⁡xMin⁡fψ(x,f(x))=Max⁡xMin⁡uψ(x,u)\operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_f \psi(x, f(x)) = \operatorname{Max}_x \operatorname{Min}_u \psi(x, u)Maxx​Minf​ψ(x,f(x))=Maxx​Minu​ψ(x,u).
  • (15:2)–(15:7): vk=Mσ1k1vσ1/kv_k = M^{k_1}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/k}vk​=Mσ1​k1​​vσ1​/k​ for k=1,2k = 1, 2k=1,2, one milestone for each kind of first move, without assuming that any game is strictly determined.
  • (15:C:a): a game of length 000 is strictly determined with value www; (15:C:b): if every Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​ is strictly determined, so is Γ\GammaΓ.
  • (15:13), (15:D:a)–(15:D:c): for games without chance moves whose plays end in 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1, the value is one of these three numbers, and it decides which player can force a win or whether both can force a tie.

Significance

The theorem is the first existence result for the value of a class of games in pure strategies. It shows that the whole difficulty of the general zero-sum two-person game, the need for mixed strategies (§17), comes from imperfect information. It gives a construction as well as an existence proof: the value and optimal strategies are computed by backward induction, the procedure behind retrograde analysis of endgames, minimax search in game-playing programs, and the dynamic programming recursions of sequential decision problems with an adversary. The Chess trichotomy (15:D) is its best-known consequence.

Formalizing it adds a checked account of the passage from the extensive to the normalized form for a whole class of games, which the book carries out informally (15.4.2, 15.5.1: "the reader may verify it from the formalistic point of view"). The result is classical and fully proved in the book; the work is to formalize that proof on a tree model. Mathlib has saddle points (Order/SaddlePoint) and the minimax theorem for continuous functions (Topology/Sion), but no game trees, strategies of extensive games, or backward induction. No machine-checked version of this theorem with chance moves and the normalized form over complete plans is known to the mission.

Difficulty

The recursions (15:2)–(15:7) are not formal consequences of the definitions: v1v_1v1​ and v2v_2v2​ are extrema over whole plans of Γ\GammaΓ, while the right-hand sides are extrema over plans of the separate games Γσ1\Gamma_{\sigma_1}Γσ1​​. At a personal move of player 1, v2=Max⁡σ1vσ1/2v_2 = \operatorname{Max}_{\sigma_1} v_{\sigma_1/2}v2​=Maxσ1​​vσ1​/2​ requires interchanging a Min over player 2's plans, which are functions of player 1's first choice, with a Max over that choice: this is exactly (13:E), a max-min equality that fails for general functions of two variables and holds here because the minimizing variable is a function of the maximizing one. A proof that treats the Max over τ1\tau_1τ1​ and the Min over τ2\tau_2τ2​ as interchangeable without this step is circular.

A second difficulty is the strategy spaces themselves. A complete plan chooses at nodes the plan itself excludes, so the pure strategies of Γ\GammaΓ are not simply pairs of a first choice and one strategy of the chosen subgame; the identification the book uses in 15.5.1 has to be justified by showing that the extra coordinates do not change H\mathcal HH.

Formalization scope

A game is an inductive type GameTree with constructors leaf w, chance α p next hp hsum, move1 α hα next, move2 α hα next; alternatives are Fin α (numbered from 000). The conditions p≧0p \geqq 0p≧0, ∑p=1\sum p = 1∑p=1 and α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at personal moves are constructor fields, so every tree is a legitimate game. Pure strategies are dependent types Strategy1 t, Strategy2 t defined by recursion on the tree (complete plans), with Fintype and Nonempty instances; H\mathcal HH is payoff t τ₁ τ₂, the expected leaf payoff; v1, v2 are Finset.sup'/Finset.inf' over all strategies, so every Max and Min is attained.

Standing hypotheses and conventions taken from the book:

  • finite strategy sets and attained extrema (13.2.1, 14.1.1): finite trees with finitely many alternatives at every move;
  • perfect information, i.e. preliminarity equals anteriority (6.4.1, (15:B)): built into the tree model, which is the sequence of games (15:1);
  • zero-sum two-person (15.3.1): one payoff F1\mathfrak F_1F1​, player 2 receives −F1-\mathfrak F_1−F1​ and minimizes H\mathcal HH;
  • chance probabilities nonnegative and summing to one (15.4.2, 10.1.1); α≧1\alpha \geqq 1α≧1 at every move;
  • (15:D) additionally assumes no chance moves and outcomes 1,0,−11, 0, -11,0,−1 (15.7.1).

The book's formal model is the set-theoretic one of §§9–10, with partitions of the set of plays; the tree restates it for the perfect-information case and does not formalize §§9–10. The book fixes one length ν\nuν for all plays; trees with plays of different lengths contain the book's games as a special case, so the goal is at least as strong as the book's theorem.

Strategies are plans, never responses: a strategy of player 1 is fixed before play and cannot depend on player 2's strategy, which would make v1=v2v_1 = v_2v1​=v2​ trivial. Chance moves are part of the goal; a version without them proves only the Chess case and is weaker than the book.

Reusable beyond this mission: the tree model, its strategy types and the normalized form, which later chapters on extensive games can import. Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, and a lemma identifying the strategies of Γ\GammaΓ with the book's recursive description (15.4.2, 15.5.1).

Selected references

  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, 60th-anniversary edition, Princeton University Press, 2007 (reprint of the 3rd ed., 1953), §§6, 11, 13–15. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400829460
  • E. Zermelo, Über eine Anwendung der Mengenlehre auf die Theorie des Schachspiels, Proc. Fifth International Congress of Mathematicians, vol. II, 1913, pp. 501–504.
  • U. Schwalbe, P. Walker, Zermelo and the early history of game theory, Games and Economic Behavior 34 (2001), 123–137. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.2000.0794
  • H. W. Kuhn, Extensive games and the problem of information, in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28, Princeton, 1953, 193–216. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-012
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VIII: Bounds on Optimal Stock AllocationsTextbook

Motivation

Military and commercial service parts systems keep repairable parts at a central depot warehouse and at a set of operating bases. Chapter 10 of Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) turns from the planning models of the earlier chapters to execution. Each period, the stock that is at the depot or arriving there must be divided among the bases. The planner knows what is already in the pipeline and faces random demand at each base. The chapter's models are solved in a rolling-horizon manner. Each period's decisions are the first step of an optimal plan over a short horizon. That plan has to be computable at scale, for thousands of items and dozens of bases.

What makes this possible is a structural fact. In an optimal allocation, the cumulative stock sent to a base never exceeds what a single-period newsvendor problem at that base would ask for. This bound shrinks the allocation integer programs to linear programs of manageable size. This mission formalizes that bound and the facts it rests on.

Setting

Fix one item. Time is counted in whole periods t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,…, and JJJ is the finite set of bases. For each base jjj:

  • Ti0T_{i0}Ti0​ is the repair lead time, so shipments are decided in periods t=0,…,Ti0t = 0, \dots, T_{i0}t=0,…,Ti0​;
  • TijrT^r_{ij}Tijr​ and TijeT^e_{ij}Tije​ are the regular and expedited transportation times from the depot to base jjj, integers with 1≤Tije<Tijr1 \le T^e_{ij} < T^r_{ij}1≤Tije​<Tijr​;
  • S~i0t\tilde S_{i0t}S~i0t​ is the known cumulative supply at the depot through period ttt (stock on hand plus arrivals already in the pipeline), and S~ijt\tilde S_{ijt}S~ijt​ the known cumulative supply at base jjj. The latter is constant for t≥Tijrt \ge T^r_{ij}t≥Tijr​, since nothing not yet shipped can arrive earlier than TijrT^r_{ij}Tijr​ by regular transport;
  • XijtX_{ijt}Xijt​ is the cumulative demand at base jjj through period ttt, a nonnegative integer random variable, nondecreasing in ttt, with finite mean;
  • hij>0h_{ij} > 0hij​>0, bij>0b_{ij} > 0bij​>0 and eij≥0e_{ij} \ge 0eij​≥0 are the incremental holding, shortage and expediting costs.

If SijtS_{ijt}Sijt​ units have arrived at base jjj by period ttt, the expected cost of that period is

Gijt(S)=hij E[S−Xijt]++bij E[Xijt−S]+,G_{ijt}(S) = h_{ij}\,E[S - X_{ijt}]^+ + b_{ij}\,E[X_{ijt} - S]^+,Gijt​(S)=hij​E[S−Xijt​]++bij​E[Xijt​−S]+,

and stock left at the end of the horizon costs

Qij(S)=hij∑t>Tijr+Ti0E[S−Xijt]+.Q_{ij}(S) = h_{ij}\sum_{t > T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}} E[S - X_{ijt}]^+ .Qij​(S)=hij​t>Tijr​+Ti0​∑​E[S−Xijt​]+.

The stock allocation model SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ chooses nonnegative integer regular shipments yijtry^r_{ijt}yijtr​, t=0,…,Ti0t = 0, \dots, T_{i0}t=0,…,Ti0​, with cumulative shipments never exceeding cumulative depot supply. The cumulative stock at base jjj is Sijt=S~ij(Tijr−1)+∑t′≤t−Tijryijt′rS_{ijt} = \tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)} + \sum_{t' \le t - T^r_{ij}} y^r_{ijt'}Sijt​=S~ij(Tijr​−1)​+∑t′≤t−Tijr​​yijt′r​, and the model minimizes ∑j{∑t=TijrTijr+Ti0Gijt(Sijt)+Qij(Sij(Tijr+Ti0))}\sum_j \{\sum_{t=T^r_{ij}}^{T^r_{ij}+T_{i0}} G_{ijt}(S_{ijt}) + Q_{ij}(S_{ij(T^r_{ij}+T_{i0})})\}∑j​{∑t=Tijr​Tijr​+Ti0​​Gijt​(Sijt​)+Qij​(Sij(Tijr​+Ti0​)​)}. The extended model ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ adds expedited shipments yijtey^e_{ijt}yijte​, which arrive after TijeT^e_{ij}Tije​ periods at an extra cost eije_{ij}eij​ per unit.

The constrained newsvendor problem CNijt\mathrm{CN}_{ijt}CNijt​ minimizes Gijt(S)G_{ijt}(S)Gijt​(S) over integers S≥S~ijtS \ge \tilde S_{ijt}S≥S~ijt​. Its largest optimal solution is written S^ijt\hat S_{ijt}S^ijt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15 (p. 237)

In every optimal solution of SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​, for every base jjj and every t∈[Tijr,Tijr+Ti0]t \in [T^r_{ij}, T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}]t∈[Tijr​,Tijr​+Ti0​],

S~ij(Tijr−1)  ≤  Sijt∗  ≤  S^ijt.\tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)} \;\le\; S^*_{ijt} \;\le\; \hat S_{ijt}.S~ij(Tijr​−1)​≤Sijt∗​≤S^ijt​.

The bound is uniform over optimal solutions and uses nothing but the single-period problems.

Milestones

  1. Separability (Section 10.4.1, p. 236). The multi-item problem SAM\mathrm{SAM}SAM splits into the SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​: its optimal solutions are exactly the tuples of optimal item solutions, and Z∗=∑iZi∗Z^* = \sum_i Z^*_iZ∗=∑i​Zi∗​.
  2. Convexity of QijQ_{ij}Qij​ (p. 234) and of GijtG_{ijt}Gijt​ (p. 237), in the discrete sense of nondecreasing first differences on Z\mathbb ZZ.
  3. The newsvendor solution (10.19). S^ijt=max⁡(S~ijt,s0)\hat S_{ijt} = \max(\tilde S_{ijt}, s^0)S^ijt​=max(S~ijt​,s0) with s0s^0s0 the least integer such that P(Xijt≤s0)>bij/(bij+hij)P(X_{ijt} \le s^0) > b_{ij}/(b_{ij}+h_{ij})P(Xijt​≤s0)>bij​/(bij​+hij​).
  4. Monotonicity (10.20). S^ij(t−1)≤S^ijt\hat S_{ij(t-1)} \le \hat S_{ijt}S^ij(t−1)​≤S^ijt​ on [Tijr,Tijr+Ti0][T^r_{ij}, T^r_{ij} + T_{i0}][Tijr​,Tijr​+Ti0​].
  5. Theorem 16, corrected (p. 244). In every optimal solution of ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​, S~ijt≤Sijt∗\tilde S_{ijt} \le S^*_{ijt}S~ijt​≤Sijt∗​. Writing Mjt=max⁡k∈[Tije,t](S^ijk−S~ijk)M_{jt} = \max_{k \in [T^e_{ij}, t]}(\hat S_{ijk} - \tilde S_{ijk})Mjt​=maxk∈[Tije​,t]​(S^ijk​−S~ijk​), also Sijt∗≤S~ijt+MjtS^*_{ijt} \le \tilde S_{ijt} + M_{jt}Sijt∗​≤S~ijt​+Mjt​, provided Tijr=Tije+1T^r_{ij} = T^e_{ij} + 1Tijr​=Tije​+1 or t<Tije+Ti0t < T^e_{ij} + T_{i0}t<Tije​+Ti0​.

Two supporting items state that SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ and ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ have optimal solutions. A third, theorem16_counterexample, exhibits an instance in which Theorem 16's upper bound, as printed, fails.

Significance

Theorem 15 is what allows the book (pp. 238–239) to rewrite SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ with 0–1 variables δijtk\delta_{ijtk}δijtk​ indicating Sijt=kS_{ijt} = kSijt​=k. Only kkk between S~ij(Tijr−1)\tilde S_{ij(T^r_{ij}-1)}S~ij(Tijr​−1)​ and S^ijt\hat S_{ijt}S^ijt​ is needed, so the number of variables is governed by the newsvendor quantities rather than by the total depot supply. Theorem 16 plays the same role for the model with expediting. Both bounds also justify the greedy heuristics of Sections 10.4.3 and 10.5.3. Those heuristics never raise a base's stock above its newsvendor level.

The book proves both theorems in half a page each by an exchange argument. This mission produces machine-checked versions and, in doing so, settles the exact scope of Theorem 16. As printed it is false. With Tijr≥Tije+2T^r_{ij} \ge T^e_{ij} + 2Tijr​≥Tije​+2, an expedited shipment in the last decision period can be the only way to cover a later period's demand, and the optimal plan then overstocks an earlier period. The mission states the corrected theorem and the counterexample; the counterexample was checked in Lean during drafting. None of the chapter's results has been formalized before, as far as the platform's catalogue shows.

Difficulty

The central step is the exchange. Take the first period kkk in which an optimal plan overshoots its bound, and delay by one period one unit that arrives at kkk. This must be shown feasible, to change only SijkS_{ijk}Sijk​, and to lower the objective strictly. That in turn needs strict decrease of a convex function to the right of its largest minimizer, and an argument for the last period, where there is no later period to delay into. The indexing is heavy: two lead times, truncated sums min⁡(t−Tije,Ti0)\min(t - T^e_{ij}, T_{i0})min(t−Tije​,Ti0​), and cumulative constraints across bases.

The first idea, that a plan above the newsvendor level can always be improved by shipping less, fails. Shipping less changes the stock in every later period too, and later periods may need the unit. The bound follows only from a delay that affects exactly one period. For ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ even such a delay is sometimes unavailable, which is where the book's Theorem 16 breaks.

Formalization scope

  • One item at a time: ItemModel J Ω P bundles the data of one item with the cumulative demands on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P), [IsProbabilityMeasure P]. Bases form a Fintype. Periods are ℕ. Stock levels and supplies are ℤ, since net inventory may be negative. Shipments are functions J → ℕ → ℕ, so nonnegativity and integrality are built in. Costs are in ℝ.
  • GGG and QQQ are defined from the demand as in the book: Bochner integrals of (S−X)+(S - X)^+(S−X)+ and (X−S)+(X - S)^+(X−S)+, and a tsum for QQQ. The item model requires finite means and convergence of the series for QQQ at every stock level, so that no integral or sum takes Lean's junk value 000.
  • "The largest optimal solution" is the predicate IsLargestCNSolution (feasible, minimizing, and above every feasible minimizer). Theorems take S^\hat SS^ as a function satisfying it. Milestone (10.19) shows it exists.
  • "An optimal solution" means a feasible plan with objective at most that of every feasible plan. The theorems hold for every optimal plan.
  • Pinned conventions and additions. The following are not written in the book: hij,bij>0h_{ij}, b_{ij} > 0hij​,bij​>0 and eij≥0e_{ij} \ge 0eij​≥0; nonnegative, nondecreasing depot supply; nondecreasing base supply (used in the book's proof of Theorem 16); finite mean demand; convergence of QQQ's series. (10.19) is read with the critical fractile "least sss with F(s)>b/(b+h)F(s) > b/(b+h)F(s)>b/(b+h)", the book's ⌈F−1⌉\lceil F^{-1}\rceil⌈F−1⌉/⌊F−1⌋\lfloor F^{-1}\rfloor⌊F−1⌋ with ties broken upward. Theorem 16 carries the proviso "Tijr=Tije+1T^r_{ij} = T^e_{ij} + 1Tijr​=Tije​+1 or t<Tije+Ti0t < T^e_{ij} + T_{i0}t<Tije​+Ti0​". Separability is stated both for optimal plans and for optimal values.
  • Ruled out. The feasible sets of SAMi\mathrm{SAM}_iSAMi​ and ESAMi\mathrm{ESAM}_iESAMi​ impose no upper bound on the cumulative stock, and S^\hat SS^ is defined from GGG alone, never from the allocation problem. The bounds are therefore not true by definition.
  • Omitted. The LP reformulations (10.22)–(10.28) and (10.45)–(10.52) and the integrality of their relaxations, which the book asserts with a reference to [68]; the greedy algorithms and their optimality conditions (asserted); the book's claim that QijQ_{ij}Qij​ is strictly increasing (p. 238), which fails when P(Xijt≤S)=0P(X_{ijt} \le S) = 0P(Xijt​≤S)=0 beyond the horizon and is not needed; the dynamic program of Section 10.3 and the repair model of Section 10.6.
  • The discrete-convexity and newsvendor facts are reusable for any single-location inventory model on Z\mathbb ZZ. Contributions are welcome on the convexity lemmas, the critical-fractile characterization, and a reusable exchange lemma for cumulative-shipment models.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2005, Chapter 10, pp. 225–246. DOI 10.1007/b138879
  • K. J. Arrow, T. Harris, J. Marschak, "Optimal inventory policy", Econometrica 19(3), 1951, 250–272 (the newsvendor critical fractile). DOI 10.2307/1906813
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VI: The Shortfall Distribution of Capacity-Limited SystemsTextbook

Motivation

Service parts supply chains are often limited by a capacitated resource, such as a production line or a repair shop, instead of by lead times alone. Once capacity binds, the classical tools for setting stock levels (Palm's theorem and the Poisson distribution of units in resupply) no longer apply, and the quantity that determines how much stock is needed is the shortfall: the amount by which the end-of-period inventory falls below its target because capacity was insufficient. Chapter 8 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) builds its tactical planning models for capacity-limited systems on the distribution of this random variable, and on a continuous-time repair queue in which item counts are geometric.

The shortfall recursion is the Lindley recursion of queueing theory (Lindley 1952), so its stationary law is the law of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift. The exponential tail of that maximum goes back to Cramér's work on ruin probabilities; for capacitated production–inventory systems it was stated by Glasserman (1997), whose theorem the book quotes as Theorem 11. Glasserman and Tayur (1995) used the shortfall to optimize base-stock levels in multi-echelon capacitated systems, and Roundy and Muckstadt (2000) studied the mass-exponential approximation that the theorem motivates.

Setting

A single item is produced in periods n=1,2,…n = 1, 2, \dotsn=1,2,… of an infinite horizon; at most ccc units can be produced per period. The demand of period nnn is DnD_nDn​; the demands are nonnegative, independent and identically distributed, with generic demand DDD and E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c (the standing assumption of Section 8.1.1).

Under the modified (s−1,s)(s-1, s)(s−1,s) policy with target level sss, the facility observes DnD_nDn​ and produces min⁡{c,s−In−1+Dn}\min\{c, s - I_{n-1} + D_n\}min{c,s−In−1​+Dn​} units, where InI_nIn​ is the end-of-period net inventory and I0=sI_0 = sI0​=s. The shortfall Vn=s−InV_n = s - I_nVn​=s−In​ satisfies V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and

Vn=[Vn−1+Dn−c]+.(8.1)V_n = \left[V_{n-1} + D_n - c\right]^+ . \tag{8.1}Vn​=[Vn−1​+Dn​−c]+.(8.1)

With the random walk Sn=∑k=1n(Dk−c)S_n = \sum_{k=1}^{n} (D_k - c)Sn​=∑k=1n​(Dk​−c) (S0=0S_0 = 0S0​=0), the stationary shortfall is

V=sup⁡n≥0Sn.V = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_n .V=n≥0sup​Sn​.

A law on R\mathbb RR is lattice if it is concentrated on a progression a+dZa + d\mathbb Za+dZ with d>0d > 0d>0.

In the discrete case (ccc and DDD integer valued) (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​ (p. 185). In the repair model of Section 8.3.1, reparable units of item iii arrive at rate λi\lambda_iλi​, λ=∑iλi\lambda = \sum_i \lambda_iλ=∑i​λi​, a single exponential server repairs at rate μ>λ\mu > \lambdaμ>λ, NNN is the number of units in repair and NiN_iNi​ the number of item-iii units, and ηi=λi/(μ−λ+λi)\eta_i = \lambda_i/(\mu - \lambda + \lambda_i)ηi​=λi​/(μ−λ+λi​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11, corrected (p. 191)

Assume E[eαD]<∞E[e^{\alpha D}] < \inftyE[eαD]<∞ for all α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, with δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; P[D>c]>0P[D > c] > 0P[D>c]>0; the law of DDD is non-lattice; and E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). Then there are β>0\beta > 0β>0 and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 with

P{V>v}βe−αv→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.\frac{P\{V > v\}}{\beta e^{-\alpha v}} \to 1 \quad (v \to \infty), \qquad \alpha \text{ the unique positive root of } E\left[e^{-\alpha(c - D)}\right] = 1 .βe−αvP{V>v}​→1(v→∞),α the unique positive root of E[e−α(c−D)]=1.

The constant β\betaβ is left unspecified, as in the book.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Eq. (8.1): under the modified policy, s−In=Vns - I_n = V_ns−In​=Vn​ for every nnn, independently of sss.
  2. Section 8.1.1: V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ almost surely, P{Vn>v}→P{V>v}P\{V_n > v\} \to P\{V > v\}P{Vn​>v}→P{V>v} for every vvv, and the law of VVV is stationary for (8.1).
  3. Eq. (8.2): for v>0v > 0v>0, P{Vn>v}=P{Dn>v+c}+ED[1(d≤v+c) P{Vn−1>v+c−d}]P\{V_n > v\} = P\{D_n > v + c\} + E_D[1(d \le v + c)\, P\{V_{n-1} > v + c - d\}]P{Vn​>v}=P{Dn​>v+c}+ED​[1(d≤v+c)P{Vn−1​>v+c−d}].
  4. Theorem 11, second sentence: E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 has at most one positive root.
  5. Section 8.1.2: with integer demand, (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) is a Markov chain with transition probabilities pijp_{ij}pij​.
  6. Section 8.1.2: πi=lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\pi_i = \lim_n P\{V_n = i\}πi​=limn​P{Vn​=i} exists and solves πP=π\pi\mathcal P = \piπP=π, ∑iπi=1\sum_i \pi_i = 1∑i​πi​=1, πi≥0\pi_i \ge 0πi​≥0.
  7. Section 8.3.1: if NNN is geometric with parameter λ/μ\lambda/\muλ/μ and NiN_iNi​ given N=jN = jN=j is binomial(j,λi/λ)(j, \lambda_i/\lambda)(j,λi​/λ), then P[Ni=j]=(1−ηi)ηijP[N_i = j] = (1 - \eta_i)\eta_i^jP[Ni​=j]=(1−ηi​)ηij​.
  8. Section 8.3.1: ∑j>spi(j)=ηis+1\sum_{j > s} p_i(j) = \eta_i^{s+1}∑j>s​pi​(j)=ηis+1​, and the smallest cost-minimising stock level is the smallest sss with ηis+1≤hi/(hi+b)\eta_i^{s+1} \le h_i/(h_i + b)ηis+1​≤hi​/(hi​+b).

Significance

The exponential tail is the justification the book gives for approximating the shortfall by a mass-exponential law (an atom at zero plus an exponential tail), from which target stock levels and fill rates are computed in closed form. The decay rate α\alphaα depends only on the demand law and the capacity, so the theorem also says how the stock needed for a given service level grows as utilization approaches one. The discrete-chain milestones justify the exact computation of the shortfall distribution behind the book's Table 8.1 and Figures 8.3–8.8. The geometric law of NiN_iNi​ reduces the multi-item repair problem to independent newsvendor problems with an explicit solution.

The asymptotics of the random-walk maximum are proved in the literature (Cramér–Lundberg theory, Feller Vol. II, XII.5; Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, XIII.5); no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Mathlib has neither the Lindley recursion, nor ladder-height decompositions, nor the key renewal theorem for non-lattice laws. The printed Theorem 11 is not correct as stated (see Formalization scope), so the mission also records a corrected statement.

Difficulty

The central step of the goal is the passage from the random walk to an exact asymptotic. An exponential change of measure (Esscher tilt) with the root α\alphaα turns P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} into an expectation under a law with positive drift, but it only yields the upper bound P{V>v}≤e−αvP\{V > v\} \le e^{-\alpha v}P{V>v}≤e−αv (Lundberg's inequality); it does not show that eαvP{V>v}e^{\alpha v}P\{V > v\}eαvP{V>v} converges, nor that the limit is positive. Convergence needs a renewal theorem for the overshoot of the tilted walk, which fails for lattice laws. That is why the non-lattice hypothesis cannot be dropped. For the milestones, the existence of the stationary law needs the reversal argument that identifies the law of VnV_nVn​ with that of max⁡k≤nSk\max_{k \le n} S_kmaxk≤n​Sk​, plus the strong law of large numbers to show V<∞V < \inftyV<∞ from E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demands are real, nonnegative, measurable, i.i.d. (iIndepFun plus IdentDistrib with D1D_1D1​), integrable, with E[D]<cE[D] < cE[D]<c; these are fields of ShortfallModel. Periods are numbered from 111 as in the book (demand 0 is an unused i.i.d. copy). The discrete case is a separate structure with N\mathbb NN-valued demand and capacity.
  • Stationary shortfall. The book's "stationary distribution ... Let VVV represent this random variable" is pinned to V=sup⁡n≥0SnV = \sup_{n \ge 0} S_nV=supn≥0​Sn​, taken in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and converted to a real number; milestone 2 proves that it is the limit law of VnV_nVn​ from V0=0V_0 = 0V0​=0 and a stationary law of (8.1). The discrete πi\pi_iπi​ is pinned to lim⁡nP{Vn=i}\lim_n P\{V_n = i\}limn​P{Vn​=i}.
  • Corrections to Theorem 11. The printed theorem is false. For integer demand P{V>v}P\{V > v\}P{V>v} is a step function, and no βe−αv\beta e^{-\alpha v}βe−αv is asymptotic to it. If E[eαD]E[e^{\alpha D}]E[eαD] is finite only for α<δ\alpha < \deltaα<δ, the equation E[e−α(c−D)]=1E[e^{-\alpha(c-D)}] = 1E[e−α(c−D)]=1 may have no root in (0,δ)(0,\delta)(0,δ). The goal therefore adds two labelled hypotheses: a non-lattice demand law, and a root in (0,δ)(0, \delta)(0,δ). The mass-exponential demand of Section 8.1.3 (an atom at 000 plus a density) is non-lattice. The approximation β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ\beta \approx e^{-2(.583)(c-E(D))/\sigma}β≈e−2(.583)(c−E(D))/σ is not stated.
  • Repair model. The M/M/1 queue is not built. The geometric law of NNN (asserted on p. 202) and the binomial split of NNN (quoted from Chapter 3) enter milestone 7 as hypotheses, exactly as the page's proof uses them. The stability condition λ<μ\lambda < \muλ<μ, not written on the page, is a hypothesis. "The optimal sis_isi​" is read as the smallest minimiser of the cost.
  • Ruled out. Stating Theorem 11 with α\alphaα or β\betaβ allowed to depend on vvv, with β=0\beta = 0β=0 (the ratio would be a division by zero, which Lean evaluates to 000), or for a VVV postulated to have an exponential tail proves nothing. Here β,α\beta, \alphaβ,α are quantified before vvv, both are asserted positive, and VVV is constructed from the demands.
  • Not formalized. The mass-exponential approximations (8.3)–(8.4), the Roundy–Muckstadt refinement, the fill-rate formula η(s)\eta(s)η(s) (a definition, whose steady-state identity needs uniform integrability the book does not discuss), the random-capacity chain on p. 186, and the monotonicity of sis_isi​ in μ\muμ.
  • Reusable infrastructure. Welcome: the Lindley recursion and its reversal identity, the Loynes existence theorem, Lundberg's inequality, and a non-lattice renewal theorem. All of these are needed well beyond this mission, in queueing (GI/G/1 waiting times) and ruin theory.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • P. Glasserman, Bounds and asymptotics for planning critical safety stocks, Operations Research 45(2), 244–257, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.2.244
  • P. Glasserman and S. Tayur, Sensitivity analysis for base-stock levels in multiechelon production-inventory systems, Management Science 41(2), 263–281, 1995 (the book's reference [97]). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.2.263
  • R. O. Roundy and J. A. Muckstadt, Heuristic computation of periodic-review base stock inventory policies, Management Science 46(1), 104–109, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.1.104.15131
  • D. V. Lindley, The theory of queues with a single server, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 48(2), 277–289, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100027638
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971, Chapter XII.
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, Chapter XIII. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains V: Marginal Allocation and Risk PoolingTextbook

Motivation

Service parts networks (spare parts for aircraft, military systems, industrial equipment) hold stock at several echelons: a depot, intermediate stocking facilities, and bases or warehouses that face demand. Two questions recur in their planning. First, how should a given amount of stock be split among locations whose expected costs are convex in the stock they hold? Second, does adding an echelon, a depot that pools the demand of several warehouses, raise or lower the stock the system needs?

Chapter 7 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879), treats both. For the second it follows Eppen and Schrage (1981, reference [78] of the book): with normal demands, a depot that places orders every period and allocates stock so that all warehouses face the same stockout probability reduces the choice of system stock to a single critical-fractile equation. For the first, the chapter's multi-echelon pooling model (Section 7.3) evaluates nested cost functions of the form "holding and shortage cost plus the minimum over allocations of a sum of convex costs", and its appendix (Section 7.4) gives the marginal allocation algorithm AllocOpt that computes these minima exactly for every stock level at once.

Marginal analysis for separable convex resource allocation is classical (Fox, Management Science, 1966); the monograph of Ibaraki and Katoh (MIT Press, 1988) surveys it.

Setting

Allocation data (Section 7.4). There is a set M={1,…,Mˉ}M = \{1, \dots, \bar M\}M={1,…,Mˉ} of locations and an augmented set M0={0}∪MM_0 = \{0\} \cup MM0​={0}∪M. Each location m∈M0m \in M_0m∈M0​ has integer gridpoints 0=r0m<r1m<⋯<rn(m)m0 = r^m_0 < r^m_1 < \dots < r^m_{n(m)}0=r0m​<r1m​<⋯<rn(m)m​. For m∈Mm \in Mm∈M, the value cnmc^m_ncnm​ of a convex function is given at each gridpoint. The slopes (7.19) are c^nm=(cn+1m−cnm)/(rn+1m−rnm)\hat c^m_n = (c^m_{n+1} - c^m_n)/(r^m_{n+1} - r^m_n)c^nm​=(cn+1m​−cnm​)/(rn+1m​−rnm​) for n<n(m)n < n(m)n<n(m), and c^n(m)m\hat c^m_{n(m)}c^n(m)m​ repeats the last one. The piecewise linear approximation C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ of (7.20)–(7.21) interpolates the values cnmc^m_ncnm​ at the gridpoints and continues with slope c^n(m)m\hat c^m_{n(m)}c^n(m)m​ beyond the last one. A convex function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ is also given.

The allocation optimization (7.22) asks, for each n∈N0={0,…,n(0)}n \in N_0 = \{0, \dots, n(0)\}n∈N0​={0,…,n(0)}, for

cn0=f(rn0)+min⁡{∑m∈MC~m(rm):rm≥0 integer, ∑m∈Mrm=rn0}.c^0_n = f(r^0_n) + \min\Bigl\{ \sum_{m \in M} \tilde C_m(r_m) : r_m \ge 0 \text{ integer},\ \sum_{m \in M} r_m = r^0_n \Bigr\}.cn0​=f(rn0​)+min{m∈M∑​C~m​(rm​):rm​≥0 integer, m∈M∑​rm​=rn0​}.

Algorithm AllocOpt (Definition 4) keeps a current gridpoint index n∗(m)n^*(m)n∗(m) and allocation r∗(m)r^*(m)r∗(m) per location. For each increment rn0−rn−10r^0_n - r^0_{n-1}rn0​−rn−10​ of the target, it repeatedly gives units to a location m∗m^*m∗ whose current slope c^n∗(m∗)m∗\hat c^{m^*}_{n^*(m^*)}c^n∗(m∗)m∗​ is minimal, up to that location's next gridpoint, and records the accumulated cost.

Pooling system (Section 7.2.1). One depot supplies mmm warehouses. The demand djtd_{jt}djt​ at warehouse jjj in period ttt is normal with mean μj\mu_jμj​ and variance σj2\sigma_j^2σj2​, independent across periods and warehouses. The supplier-to-depot lead time is DDD periods, the depot-to-warehouse lead time AAA periods, and holding and backorder costs h,bh, bh,b are equal at all warehouses. Positions IjI_jIj​ are in balance when Φ((Ij−Aμj)/(A σj))\Phi((I_j - A\mu_j)/(\sqrt A\,\sigma_j))Φ((Ij​−Aμj​)/(A​σj​)) is the same for all jjj. For system inventory position sss, with Y0Y_0Y0​ the system demand over DDD periods and YjY_jYj​ the demand at jjj over the next A+1A + 1A+1 periods, the balanced allocation gives each warehouse a share proportional to σj\sigma_jσj​, and zjz_jzj​ is its end-of-period net inventory.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (correctness)

For every tie-breaking rule in its arg min steps, AllocOpt returns values cn0c^0_ncn0​ that satisfy (7.22) for every n∈N0n \in N_0n∈N0​: some feasible integer allocation attains cn0−f(rn0)c^0_n - f(r^0_n)cn0​−f(rn0​), and no feasible integer allocation does better.

Milestones

  1. Slope monotonicity (p. 178): c^nm≥c^n−1m\hat c^m_n \ge \hat c^m_{n-1}c^nm​≥c^n−1m​ for 0<n≤n(m)0 < n \le n(m)0<n≤n(m).
  2. Convexity of C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) (proof of Proposition 2, p. 179).
  3. Remark 2 (p. 179): with the inner loop run only while the current slope is ≤0\le 0≤0, AllocOpt solves (7.22) with ∑mrm≤rn0\sum_m r_m \le r^0_n∑m​rm​≤rn0​.
  4. Lemma 3 (p. 152): if the positions are in balance and
∑jdj,t−1≥max⁡i{∑j≠idj,t+D−1+di,t+D−1(1−∑jσjσi)},\sum_{j} d_{j,t-1} \ge \max_{i} \Bigl\{ \sum_{j \ne i} d_{j,t+D-1} + d_{i,t+D-1}\Bigl(1 - \frac{\sum_j \sigma_j}{\sigma_i}\Bigr)\Bigr\},j∑​dj,t−1​≥imax​{j=i∑​dj,t+D−1​+di,t+D−1​(1−σi​∑j​σj​​)},

then a nonnegative allocation of the arriving ∑jdj,t−1\sum_j d_{j,t-1}∑j​dj,t−1​ units restores balance. 5. Net inventory law (pp. 156–157): zjz_jzj​ is normal with mean (s−(D+A+1)∑iμi) σj/∑iσi(s - (D + A + 1)\sum_i \mu_i)\,\sigma_j / \sum_i \sigma_i(s−(D+A+1)∑i​μi​)σj​/∑i​σi​ and variance (A+1)σj2+(σj/∑iσi)2D∑iσi2(A + 1)\sigma_j^2 + (\sigma_j / \sum_i \sigma_i)^2 D \sum_i \sigma_i^2(A+1)σj2​+(σj​/∑i​σi​)2D∑i​σi2​. 6. Critical fractile (pp. 157–158): sss minimizes ∑jE[h(zj)++b(zj)−]\sum_j E[h (z_j)^+ + b (z_j)^-]∑j​E[h(zj​)++b(zj​)−] if and only if Φ(z)=b/(b+h)\Phi(z) = b/(b+h)Φ(z)=b/(b+h), where

z=s−(D+A+1)∑iμi[(A+1)(∑iσi)2+D∑iσi2]1/2.z = \frac{s - (D + A + 1)\sum_i \mu_i}{\bigl[(A + 1)(\sum_i \sigma_i)^2 + D \sum_i \sigma_i^2\bigr]^{1/2}}.z=[(A+1)(∑i​σi​)2+D∑i​σi2​]1/2s−(D+A+1)∑i​μi​​.

Significance

The goal certifies an algorithm that the chapter uses as a subroutine three times: in the pool cost (7.14), the subsystem cost (7.15) and the system cost (7.17), and hence in the claim of Section 7.3 that the system-wide cost function can be computed in time nlog⁡nn \log nnlogn in the number of locations. Because AllocOpt produces the whole vector (cn0)n∈N0(c^0_n)_{n \in N_0}(cn0​)n∈N0​​ in one pass, its correctness gives the nested value functions at every gridpoint of the next echelon, which is what allows the recursion up the echelons. The Eppen–Schrage milestones give the classical quantitative form of risk pooling: the system stock is set by one critical fractile, and the standard deviation term (A+1)(∑iσi)2+D∑iσi2(A + 1)(\sum_i \sigma_i)^2 + D \sum_i \sigma_i^2(A+1)(∑i​σi​)2+D∑i​σi2​ is what the book compares with the single-warehouse and the decentralized systems.

On formalization: the book states Proposition 2 with a two-sentence argument and Remark 2 without proof. The Eppen–Schrage computations are displayed derivations. None of these results has a machine-checked proof on the platform. A verified AllocOpt, stated for an explicit algorithm rather than for an abstract greedy procedure, is reusable for any separable convex integer allocation with a sum constraint.

Difficulty

The usual greedy exchange argument assumes that units are allocated one at a time. AllocOpt allocates in blocks, up to the next gridpoint of the chosen location, and it carries its state across successive targets rn−10→rn0r^0_{n-1} \to r^0_nrn−10​→rn0​ without restarting. The proof must therefore show that the state after each outer step is itself an optimal allocation for the current target, and that block moves never step past a breakpoint where the arg min would change. The slopes can be negative, and the equality constraint forces allocation even when every marginal cost is positive. Remark 2 needs an additional argument: under the inequality constraint the loop may stop before uuu reaches zero, and that point is optimal only because the slopes are nondecreasing.

For the pooling results, the balanced allocation mixes the depot-lead-time demand Y0Y_0Y0​ of all warehouses with the local demand YjY_jYj​, and the Gaussian law of zjz_jzj​ rests on the independence of disjoint blocks of periods. The fractile statement requires strict monotonicity of each warehouse's expected cost derivative in sss, not only a first-order condition.

Formalization scope

  • Indices and types. Locations of MMM are Fin Mbar; gridpoints are integers, values and slopes real numbers; allocations are functions Fin Mbar → ℕ. The standing assumptions of Section 7.4 form the predicate WellFormed: Mˉ≥1\bar M \ge 1Mˉ≥1, n(m)≥1n(m) \ge 1n(m)≥1 for m∈Mm \in Mm∈M (a slope (7.19) needs two gridpoints), gridpoints starting at 000 and strictly increasing at every location of M0M_0M0​, each cnmc^m_ncnm​ the value of a function convex on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), and fff convex on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞).
  • The minimum in (7.22) is stated as attainment plus a lower bound over the finite, nonempty set of feasible integer allocations, never as an unconstrained infimum.
  • Ties. The book's arg min fixes no tie-breaking rule. Results are stated for every selection rule that returns a minimizing location.
  • Termination. AllocOpt is a total Lean function. The inner loop is given more passes than it can use, so it always exits through its own condition.
  • Not stated. The operation count of Proposition 2, O((1+log⁡2Mˉ)∑m∈M0n(m))O((1 + \log_2 \bar M)\sum_{m \in M_0} n(m))O((1+log2​Mˉ)∑m∈M0​​n(m)), and Proposition 1 and Remark 1 (p. 177) are operation counts with no machine model and are left out.
  • Corrections. The first expected-cost display on p. 157 has + b∫−∞0z dFzj(z)+\,b\int_{-\infty}^0 z\,dF_{z_j}(z)+b∫−∞0​zdFzj​​(z), which is negative. The formalization uses b E[(zj)−]b\,E[(z_j)^-]bE[(zj​)−], as in the book's next display.
  • Pinnings. Lemma 3 is deterministic: the demands are arbitrary reals, and "in balance following the allocation" means that some xj≥0x_j \ge 0xj​≥0 with ∑jxj=∑jdj,t−1\sum_j x_j = \sum_j d_{j,t-1}∑j​xj​=∑j​dj,t−1​ exists. The critical-fractile milestone is the characterization "minimizer if and only if Φ(z)=b/(b+h)\Phi(z) = b/(b+h)Φ(z)=b/(b+h)" of the book's "can be found by setting".
  • Trivialization ruled out. The allocation problem (7.22) is defined independently of the algorithm, as a minimum over explicit integer allocations, and the C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ are built from the data by (7.19)–(7.21). Neither (7.22) nor the C~m\tilde C_mC~m​ are defined as, or required to agree with, what AllocOpt returns.
  • Welcome contributions. Lemmas on the invariants of AllocOpt, in particular that after each outer step the allocation r∗r^*r∗ is feasible for rn0r^0_nrn0​ with cost zzz and all slopes to the left of n∗(m)n^*(m)n∗(m) are at most those to the right. Also Gaussian sum lemmas over finite index sets and a general newsvendor first-order characterization.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2005. DOI 10.1007/b138879
  • G. D. Eppen and L. Schrage, "Centralized ordering policies in a multi-warehouse system with lead times and random demand", in L. B. Schwarz (ed.), Multi-Level Production/Inventory Control Systems: Theory and Practice, Studies in the Management Sciences, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1981, pp. 51–67.
  • G. D. Eppen, "Effects of centralization on expected costs in a multi-location newsboy problem", Management Science 25(5), 1979, 498–501. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.25.5.498
  • B. Fox, "Discrete optimization via marginal analysis", Management Science 13(3), 1966, 210–216. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.13.3.210
  • T. Ibaraki and N. Katoh, Resource Allocation Problems: Algorithmic Approaches, MIT Press, 1988.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains III: Palm's Theorem for (s–1, s) PoliciesTextbook

Motivation

Service parts (spare engines, avionics modules, repairable components) are usually managed one unit at a time: whenever a customer order removes a unit from stock, a replacement is ordered at once, from a repair shop or an outside supplier. This is the (s–1, s) policy, under which the inventory position (on hand plus on order minus backorders) stays constant at the stock level sss. Every performance measure of such a system (fill rate, expected backorders, availability) is a function of one random variable: the number of units in resupply, i.e. ordered but not yet returned. Chapter 3 of Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005) computes its distribution, and the rest of the book (the METRIC-type multi-echelon models of Chapters 4 and 5, the stock-level optimization of Section 3.4) is built on that computation.

Timeline. C. Palm (1938) showed, in the setting of telephone traffic, that in an infinite-server system with Poisson arrivals the number of busy servers has, in steady state, a Poisson law whose mean is the arrival rate times the mean service time, whatever the service-time distribution. Feeney and Sherbrooke (1966) carried the result to (s–1, s) inventory systems with compound Poisson demand, and treated the lost-sales case. Sherbrooke's METRIC model (1968) made the Poisson law of units in resupply the basis of multi-echelon spare-parts planning.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location. Customer orders arrive at epochs T0<T1<⋯T_0 < T_1 < \cdotsT0​<T1​<⋯ of a Poisson process with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, started empty at time 000: the interarrival times AkA_kAk​ are independent and exponential with rate λ\lambdaλ, and Tk=A0+⋯+AkT_k = A_0 + \cdots + A_kTk​=A0​+⋯+Ak​. The kkk-th order triggers a resupply order with resupply time Lk≥0L_k \ge 0Lk​≥0. The resupply times are independent and identically distributed, independent of the arrival process, with a density ggg, distribution function G(u)=P[L≤u]G(u) = P[L \le u]G(u)=P[L≤u] and finite mean

τˉ=E[L]=∫0∞[1−G(u)] du.\bar\tau = E[L] = \int_0^\infty [1 - G(u)]\,du .τˉ=E[L]=∫0∞​[1−G(u)]du.

With backorders allowed, the number of units in resupply at time ttt is

X(t)=#{k:Tk≤t<Tk+Lk},X(t) = \#\{k : T_k \le t < T_k + L_k\},X(t)=#{k:Tk​≤t<Tk​+Lk​},

and N(t)=#{k:Tk≤t}N(t) = \#\{k : T_k \le t\}N(t)=#{k:Tk​≤t} counts the orders placed in [0,t][0,t][0,t]. On-hand stock and backorders at time ttt are (s−X(t))+(s - X(t))^+(s−X(t))+ and (X(t)−s)+(X(t) - s)^+(X(t)−s)+.

In the compound Poisson version the kkk-th order asks for Xk≥1X_k \ge 1Xk​≥1 units, the sizes are i.i.d. with uj=P[Xk=j]u_j = P[X_k = j]uj​=P[Xk​=j], independent of arrivals and resupply times, and all units of one order share its resupply time LkL_kLk​. The units in resupply are Y(t)=∑k:Tk≤t<Tk+LkXkY(t) = \sum_{k : T_k \le t < T_k + L_k} X_kY(t)=∑k:Tk​≤t<Tk​+Lk​​Xk​. Writing un(y)u^{(y)}_nun(y)​ for the probability that yyy orders ask for nnn units in total, the compound Poisson probabilities with parameter μ\muμ are

p(n∣μ)=∑y=0nμye−μy! un(y).p(n \mid \mu) = \sum_{y=0}^{n} \frac{\mu^y e^{-\mu}}{y!}\,u^{(y)}_n .p(n∣μ)=y=0∑n​y!μye−μ​un(y)​.

In the lost-sales version an order that finds no stock on hand is lost, so at most sss units are ever in resupply.

Formalization targets

Goal: Palm's theorem (Theorem 6, p. 39)

For every x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

lim⁡t→∞P[X(t)=x]=e−λτˉ(λτˉ)xx!.\lim_{t\to\infty} P[X(t) = x] = e^{-\lambda\bar\tau}\frac{(\lambda\bar\tau)^x}{x!}.t→∞lim​P[X(t)=x]=e−λτˉx!(λτˉ)x​.

The resupply-time law enters only through its mean. This is the statement the book's proof establishes and every later chapter uses.

The proof's milestones (pp. 38–41)

  1. Eq. (3.5): P[N(t)=n]=e−λt(λt)n/n!P[N(t) = n] = e^{-\lambda t}(\lambda t)^n/n!P[N(t)=n]=e−λt(λt)n/n!.
  2. Eq. (3.3): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the epochs (T0,…,Tn−1)(T_0, \dots, T_{n-1})(T0​,…,Tn−1​) have density n!/tnn!/t^nn!/tn on 0<t1<⋯<tn<t0 < t_1 < \cdots < t_n < t0<t1​<⋯<tn​<t.
  3. Eq. (3.7): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, X(t)X(t)X(t) is binomial with parameters nnn and p=1t∫0t[1−G(u)] dup = \frac1t\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,dup=t1​∫0t​[1−G(u)]du.
  4. Eq. (3.8): for every t>0t > 0t>0, X(t)X(t)X(t) is Poisson with mean λ∫0t[1−G(u)] du\lambda\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,duλ∫0t​[1−G(u)]du.
  5. Eq. (3.10): ∫0t[1−G(u)] du→τˉ\int_0^t[1-G(u)]\,du \to \bar\tau∫0t​[1−G(u)]du→τˉ.

Extensions in Section 3.1

  1. Theorem 7 (pp. 43–44): with compound Poisson demand, lim⁡t→∞P[Y(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉ)\lim_{t\to\infty}P[Y(t) = n] = p(n \mid \lambda\bar\tau)limt→∞​P[Y(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉ).
  2. Theorem 8 (p. 44): in the lost-sales system with exponential resupply times of rate β\betaβ, the probability vectors solving the balance equations are exactly the truncated Poisson law πx∝(λ/β)x/x!\pi_x \propto (\lambda/\beta)^x/x!πx​∝(λ/β)x/x!, 0≤x≤s0 \le x \le s0≤x≤s.
  3. Theorem 9 (pp. 46–47): for a due-date delay T≥0T \ge 0T≥0, the units in resupply that have been there for at least TTT satisfy lim⁡t→∞P[YT(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉα)\lim_{t\to\infty}P[Y_T(t) = n] = p(n \mid \lambda\bar\tau\alpha)limt→∞​P[YT​(t)=n]=p(n∣λτˉα) with α=1τˉ∫T∞[1−G(t)] dt\alpha = \frac1{\bar\tau}\int_T^\infty[1-G(t)]\,dtα=τˉ1​∫T∞​[1−G(t)]dt.

Significance

The result. Palm's theorem turns an infinite-dimensional object (the whole resupply-time distribution) into one number, τˉ\bar\tauτˉ. This insensitivity is what makes spare-parts planning computable: the expected backorders at stock level sss are ∑x>s(x−s) p(x∣λτˉ)\sum_{x > s}(x - s)\,p(x \mid \lambda\bar\tau)∑x>s​(x−s)p(x∣λτˉ), the fill rate is P[X≤s−1]P[X \le s - 1]P[X≤s−1], and both can be optimized over sss with only the demand rate and mean repair time as data. Theorem 7 extends this to batch demand, Theorem 9 to systems allowed a response time, and Theorem 8 gives the exact law when shortages are lost instead of backordered.

Formalizing it. All of these results are classical and proved. None of them is formalized on the platform, and Mathlib has Poisson and exponential distributions but no Poisson process, no thinning theorem and no infinite-server queue. The mission produces a Poisson arrival stream built from i.i.d. exponential gaps, the conditional-uniformity property of its epochs, independent thinning, and the M/G/∞ transient law, all reusable in queueing and inventory missions.

Difficulty

The algebra of the proof (summing the binomial against the Poisson law of N(t)N(t)N(t)) is short. The work is in the probabilistic step the book treats in a sentence: that, given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the nnn orders behave like independent uniform epochs, each of which independently is still in resupply at time ttt with the same probability ppp. This needs the joint law of the partial sums of exponential variables (Eq. (3.3)), and then a symmetrization argument, since the epochs are ordered while the resupply times are attached to order indices. The naive route of computing P[X(t)=x]P[X(t) = x]P[X(t)=x] by conditioning on individual epochs does not go through without that exchangeability step. The limit t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ is then elementary; stating a stationary version directly is not a substitute, since the book's "steady state" is exactly this limit.

Formalization scope

The model is a structure on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P): exponential interarrival times with rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, nonnegative resupply times with a density and an integrable first coordinate, and mutual independence of the whole family. Orders are indexed from 000, so the book's X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are T0,…,Tn−1T_0, \dots, T_{n-1}T0​,…,Tn−1​. Counts are cardinalities of sets of order indices, with value 000 on the probability-zero event where infinitely many orders fall in a bounded interval.

Commitments and pinnings:

  • "Steady state probability" (Theorems 6, 7, 9) is lim⁡t→∞P[⋅(t)=x]\lim_{t\to\infty}P[\cdot(t) = x]limt→∞​P[⋅(t)=x] for the system empty at time 000, which is what the proofs compute via (3.8)–(3.11).
  • Independence of resupply times from arrivals is not written in Theorem 6 but is used on p. 40; it is part of the model.
  • The stock level sss does not enter the backorder model; it matters only in Theorem 8.
  • Theorem 8 is stated algebraically: a vector on {0,…,s}\{0, \dots, s\}{0,…,s} solves the balance equations (3.26), (3.25) for 0<j<s0 < j < s0<j<s and (3.32), and sums to one, if and only if it is the truncated Poisson law. The book obtains these equations by letting t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ in the forward equations under the unproved assumption Pj′(t)→0P_j'(t) \to 0Pj′​(t)→0. The book writes (3.25) "for 0≤j≤s0 \le j \le s0≤j≤s", which at j=sj = sj=s contradicts its own (3.32); the boundary equation (3.32) is used. The sentence on p. 46 extending Theorem 8 to arbitrary resupply densities is asserted without proof and is not stated.
  • Theorem 7 identifies the limit law by its probabilities (3.22)–(3.23); its mean λτˉuˉ\lambda\bar\tau\bar uλτˉuˉ is a property of that law. Theorem 9 is stated for compound demand as the book states it, although the book's proof covers only the Poisson case.

A model in which X(t)X(t)X(t) is postulated through its law, or in which resupply times may depend on the arrival epochs, makes the goal empty or false; here X(t)X(t)X(t) is computed from the primitive arrival and resupply times, whose joint law is fully specified.

Welcome contributions: a general Poisson-process library (construction from exponential gaps, Poisson marginals, order-statistics property), independent thinning, and proofs of the milestones in the listed order.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, 2005, Chapter 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • C. Palm, "Analysis of the Erlang traffic formula for busy-signal arrangements", Ericsson Technics 5, 1938, 39–58.
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, "The (s–1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand", Management Science 12(5), 1966, 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
  • C. C. Sherbrooke, "METRIC: A multi-echelon technique for recoverable item control", Operations Research 16(1), 1968, 122–141. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.16.1.122
  • S. M. Ross, Stochastic Processes, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1996, Section 2.3 (conditional distribution of arrival times) and Section 2.4 (the M/G/∞ queue).
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Dynamic ProgrammingOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains I: Optimality of Order-Up-To Policies by Dynamic ProgrammingTextbook

Motivation

A stocking point that reviews its inventory once per period and must decide how much to order is the basic unit of every service parts supply chain: each warehouse, each repair depot and each forward location in the networks studied later in Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) faces this decision for thousands of items. The practical rule used everywhere is the order-up-to (base-stock) rule: bring the inventory position up to a fixed target level whenever it falls below it, and order nothing otherwise. Chapter 2 of the book justifies this rule for a single item with linear costs, following the dynamic-programming argument of Karlin and Scarf, and the rest of the book takes the rule as given.

Timeline. Arrow, Harris and Marschak posed the periodic-review inventory problem as a dynamic program in 1951 (Econometrica). Bellman, Glicksberg and Gross showed in 1955 that with linear ordering cost and convex expected holding and shortage costs the optimal policy has a critical-number form (Management Science). Karlin and Scarf (1958) extended the analysis to a positive lead time, the setting of the book's Theorems 1–3. Veinott (1965) gave conditions under which a base-stock policy is optimal in multi-product, nonstationary models (Management Science).

Setting

One item is stocked at one location. At the start of each period the inventory position yyy is observed and a quantity u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 is ordered; with lead time one period it arrives at the start of the next period. Demand in each period is independent of other periods and has a density ggg on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) that is positive and continuous. Unmet demand is backordered. Costs are linear: ccc per unit ordered, hhh per unit on hand at the end of a period, bbb per unit backordered at the end of a period, and future costs are discounted by α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1). The one-period cost is

L(y)={h∫0y(y−x)g(x) dx+b∫y∞(x−y)g(x) dx,y>0,b∫0∞(x−y)g(x) dx,y≤0.L(y) = \begin{cases} h\displaystyle\int_0^y (y-x)g(x)\,dx + b\int_y^\infty (x-y)g(x)\,dx, & y > 0,\\[1mm] b\displaystyle\int_0^\infty (x-y)g(x)\,dx, & y \le 0. \end{cases}L(y)=⎩⎨⎧​h∫0y​(y−x)g(x)dx+b∫y∞​(x−y)g(x)dx,b∫0∞​(x−y)g(x)dx,​y>0,y≤0.​

The book assumes throughout that b>1−αα cb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\,cb>α1−α​c: the backorder cost outweighs the saving from deferring a purchase.

The nnn-period value functions are f1=Lf_1 = Lf1​=L and, for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2,

fn(y)=min⁡u≥0{c u+L(y)+α∫0∞fn−1(y+u−x) g(x) dx}.f_n(y) = \min_{u \ge 0}\Big\{ c\,u + L(y) + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_{n-1}(y+u-x)\,g(x)\,dx \Big\}.fn​(y)=u≥0min​{cu+L(y)+α∫0∞​fn−1​(y+u−x)g(x)dx}.

An order uuu is optimal at yyy if it attains this minimum over all u≥0u \ge 0u≥0. The order-up-to rule with level sss orders u(y)=max⁡{0,s−y}u(y) = \max\{0, s-y\}u(y)=max{0,s−y}. The marginal function of eq. (2.8) is Fn(w)=c+α∫0∞fn′(w−x) g(x) dxF_n(w) = c + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_n'(w-x)\,g(x)\,dxFn​(w)=c+α∫0∞​fn′​(w−x)g(x)dx. In Lean these are Model, Model.L, Model.f, Model.IsOptimalOrder, Model.IsOrderUpToOptimal and Model.F in the namespace ServiceParts.BaseStock.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 18) in its nnn-period form

For every horizon n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, either there is a real level sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ with

un∗(y)=max⁡{0, sn∗−y} optimal for every y,u_n^*(y) = \max\{0,\ s_n^* - y\} \ \text{optimal for every } y,un∗​(y)=max{0, sn∗​−y} optimal for every y,

or ordering nothing is optimal for every yyy (level −∞-\infty−∞); and there is N≥2N \ge 2N≥2 such that the level is real for all n≥Nn \ge Nn≥N. No value of sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ is fixed: the goal asserts the shape of the optimal policy only.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. LLL is convex (p. 21).
  2. Every fnf_nfn​, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, is convex (p. 19, property (c)).
  3. Every fnf_nfn​ is differentiable with −(c+b)≤fn′≤h/(1−α)-(c+b) \le f_n' \le h/(1-\alpha)−(c+b)≤fn′​≤h/(1−α) (p. 20).
  4. Property (b): given an optimal real level sss for horizon n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, fn′=−c+L′f_n' = -c + L'fn′​=−c+L′ below sss and fn′=L′+α∫0∞fn−1′(⋅−x)g(x) dxf_n' = L' + \alpha\int_0^\infty f_{n-1}'(\cdot - x)g(x)\,dxfn′​=L′+α∫0∞​fn−1′​(⋅−x)g(x)dx from sss on (p. 19).
  5. Given such a level, Fn(w)→(1−α)c−bα<0F_n(w) \to (1-\alpha)c - b\alpha < 0Fn​(w)→(1−α)c−bα<0 as w→−∞w \to -\inftyw→−∞ (p. 19).
  6. Property (a): optimal real levels are nondecreasing in the horizon, sn∗≤sn+1∗s_n^* \le s_{n+1}^*sn∗​≤sn+1∗​ (p. 18).

Significance

The theorem reduces an infinite-dimensional control problem, a choice of order quantity for every possible inventory position, to one number per period. Every later chapter of the book (Palm's theorem for (s−1,s)(s-1,s)(s−1,s) policies, METRIC-type stock level optimization, allocation in multi-echelon systems) parameterizes policies by such stock levels; this is where the book justifies that parameterization.

The result is classical and proved in many texts. On Prove2Me the mission produces a machine-checked finite-horizon version with a continuous demand density, including the calculus the proof needs: convexity of an expected cost defined by integrals against a density, differentiation under the integral sign in the recursion, and the one-sided behaviour of the value function at the order-up-to level. Existing platform results on base-stock optimality (Veinott's multi-product model, advance demand information) use different models and different arguments; none covers this recursion.

Difficulty

The argument is an induction on nnn whose hypothesis carries convexity, the derivative formula (b), and bounds on fn′f_n'fn′​. The delicate step is the existence of a finite root of FnF_nFn​: its limit at −∞-\infty−∞ depends on whether the previous level was finite. For n=1n = 1n=1 nothing is ordered and the limit is c−bαc - b\alphac−bα, which the assumption b>1−ααcb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}cb>α1−α​c does not make negative. The book's base case ("left to the reader") therefore fails when c>αbc > \alpha bc>αb: with α=12\alpha = \tfrac12α=21​, c=1c = 1c=1, b=32b = \tfrac32b=23​ the two-period problem never orders. The goal is corrected accordingly.

Two properties the book's induction also carries are not usable as printed. Property (d), fn′≤fn−1′f_n' \le f_{n-1}'fn′​≤fn−1′​, is false: for large yyy, fn′(y)f_n'(y)fn′​(y) approaches h(1+α+⋯+αn−1)h(1 + \alpha + \dots + \alpha^{n-1})h(1+α+⋯+αn−1), which increases with nnn. The second-derivative clause of property (c) fails at y=0y = 0y=0 whenever g(0+)>0g(0^+) > 0g(0+)>0. A solver cannot follow the printed induction step for step; property (a), which the book derives from (d), is true and is a milestone in its own right.

Formalization scope

  • Horizon. The book states Theorem 2 for "the optimal policy" without a horizon. Its proof is an induction on a finite horizon, and the passage n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ is left as a conjecture (p. 21). The goal is the finite-horizon theorem; no infinite-horizon value function is constructed.
  • Lead time. The proof sets τ=1\tau = 1τ=1 "to simplify notation"; so does the formalization. Theorem 1 (dependence on the inventory position only) and Theorem 3 (general τ\tauτ, whose level equation is the conjectured infinite-horizon one) are not stated.
  • Level −∞-\infty−∞. The goal allows "never order" as the order-up-to rule with level −∞-\infty−∞ and adds eventual finiteness; see Difficulty.
  • Added hypotheses. c≥0c \ge 0c≥0, h>0h > 0h>0 (the book uses lim⁡w→∞fn′(w−x)>0\lim_{w\to\infty} f_n'(w - x) > 0limw→∞​fn′​(w−x)>0), 0<α0 < \alpha0<α (the book divides by α\alphaα), and a finite mean ∫0∞x g(x) dx<∞\int_0^\infty x\,g(x)\,dx < \infty∫0∞​xg(x)dx<∞ (without it LLL is infinite). All are fields of Model, together with positivity and continuity of ggg on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), ∫0∞g=1\int_0^\infty g = 1∫0∞​g=1, and b>1−ααcb > \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}cb>α1−α​c.
  • Minimum and derivatives. fnf_nfn​ is defined with the infimum over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 of a nonnegative quantity; optimality is always against every u′≥0u' \ge 0u′≥0. Statements about fn′f_n'fn′​ assert differentiability (Differentiable, HasDerivAt) and do not read deriv as evidence of it.
  • Levels. The book's sn∗s_n^*sn∗​ is "the unique solution of (2.6)"; milestones take any real level at which the order-up-to rule is optimal.

A recursion in which ordering is restricted to order-up-to rules, or in which fnf_nfn​ is defined through sn∗s_n^*sn∗​, would make the goal a tautology; here fnf_nfn​ is defined by minimization over all u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 and optimality is checked against all orders.

Needed infrastructure: convexity and differentiation of parametric integrals against a density on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and minimization of a differentiable convex function over a half-line. Both are reusable for the other stochastic inventory missions on the platform. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, 2005, Chapter 2, Section 2.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in K. J. Arrow, S. Karlin and H. Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958 (no DOI).
  • K. J. Arrow, T. Harris and J. Marschak, Optimal inventory policy, Econometrica 19(3), 1951, 250–272. https://doi.org/10.2307/1906814
  • R. Bellman, I. Glicksberg and O. Gross, On the optimal inventory equation, Management Science 2(1), 1955, 83–104. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2.1.83
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., Optimal policy for a multi-product, dynamic, nonstationary inventory problem, Management Science 12(3), 1965, 206–222. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.3.206
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Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization V: Asymptotic Optimality of List Scheduling for the Machine Investment ProblemTextbook

Motivation

Two-stage stochastic integer programs combine the two hardest features of mathematical programming: uncertainty in the data and integrality of the decisions. Even evaluating the objective of such a program at a single first-stage decision requires the expected optimal value of an NP-hard combinatorial problem. Chapter 8 of Ermoliev and Wets (eds.), Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization (Springer 1988), by A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan and L. Stougie, argues that for many such problems the way forward is probabilistic analysis: the random optimal value of the second-stage problem often converges, after normalization, to a simple function of the problem parameters, and that function can replace the intractable expectation.

The chapter illustrates this on the machine investment problem: first buy mmm identical machines at cost ccc each, knowing only the distribution of the processing times of nnn jobs, then schedule the jobs once their processing times are revealed so as to minimize the makespan. This mission formalizes the chapter's analysis of that example: the almost sure asymptotics of the optimal makespan (8.13), its expectation version, and the asymptotic clairvoyance of the resulting two-stage heuristic.

Setting

Let p1,p2,…p_1, p_2, \dotsp1​,p2​,… be processing times: independent, identically distributed, nonnegative random variables on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) with mean μ=Ep1>0\mu = \mathbb E p_1 > 0μ=Ep1​>0 and finite second moment Ep12<∞\mathbb E p_1^2 < \inftyEp12​<∞. The instance with nnn jobs uses the first nnn of them.

An assignment of the nnn jobs to m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 identical machines is a map σ:{1,…,n}→{1,…,m}\sigma : \{1, \dots, n\} \to \{1, \dots, m\}σ:{1,…,n}→{1,…,m}. The load of machine iii is ∑j:σ(j)=ipj\sum_{j : \sigma(j) = i} p_j∑j:σ(j)=i​pj​ and the makespan of σ\sigmaσ is its largest load. The minimum makespan is

Cn∗(m)=min⁡σmax⁡i=1,…,m∑j: σ(j)=ipj,C^*_n(m) = \min_{\sigma} \max_{i=1,\dots,m} \sum_{j:\ \sigma(j) = i} p_j ,Cn∗​(m)=σmin​i=1,…,mmax​j: σ(j)=i∑​pj​,

and the machine investment problem is to minimize Zn(m)=cm+E Cn∗(m)Z_n(m) = cm + \mathbb E\, C^*_n(m)Zn​(m)=cm+ECn∗​(m) over integers mmm (8.9).

List scheduling takes the jobs in the order 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n and assigns each to the first available machine, a machine of least current load (lowest index on ties). Its makespan is CnH(m)C^H_n(m)CnH​(m). Write Sn=∑j=1npjS_n = \sum_{j=1}^n p_jSn​=∑j=1n​pj​ and pmax⁡=max⁡j≤npjp_{\max} = \max_{j \le n} p_jpmax​=maxj≤n​pj​.

For §8.3, the estimate Zn′(m)=cm+nμ/mZ'_n(m) = cm + n\mu/mZn′​(m)=cm+nμ/m is minimized over integers by the heuristic first-stage decision mnH1m^{H1}_nmnH1​, the better of ⌊nμ/c⌋\lfloor\sqrt{n\mu/c}\rfloor⌊nμ/c​⌋ and ⌈nμ/c⌉\lceil\sqrt{n\mu/c}\rceil⌈nμ/c​⌉. A clairvoyant decision maker who sees the processing times first chooses mn∘(ω)≥1m^\circ_n(\omega) \ge 1mn∘​(ω)≥1 minimizing cm+Cn∗(m)cm + C^*_n(m)cm+Cn∗​(m).

Formalization targets

Goal: Eq. (8.13)

For machine counts m=m(n)≥1m = m(n) \ge 1m=m(n)≥1 with m(n)=O(n)m(n) = O(\sqrt n)m(n)=O(n​),

P{lim⁡n→∞Cn∗(m)nμ/m=1}=1.P\Bigl\{ \lim_{n\to\infty} \frac{C^*_n(m)}{n\mu/m} = 1 \Bigr\} = 1 .P{n→∞lim​nμ/mCn∗​(m)​=1}=1.

The machine count is allowed to grow with nnn; this is the regime the first-stage heuristic lives in, since mnH1m^{H1}_nmnH1​ is of exact order n\sqrt nn​.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (8.10): the deterministic sandwich Sn/m≤Cn∗(m)≤CnH(m)≤Sn/m+pmax⁡S_n/m \le C^*_n(m) \le C^H_n(m) \le S_n/m + p_{\max}Sn​/m≤Cn∗​(m)≤CnH​(m)≤Sn​/m+pmax​, divided by nμ/mn\mu/mnμ/m.
  2. Eq. (8.11): the strong law of large numbers, (Sn−nμ)/(nμ)→0(S_n - n\mu)/(n\mu) \to 0(Sn​−nμ)/(nμ)→0 almost surely (a published platform theorem).
  3. Lemma 8.1 (i): pmax⁡/n→0p_{\max}/\sqrt n \to 0pmax​/n​→0 almost surely.
  4. Eq. (8.12): m pmax⁡/(nμ)→0m\, p_{\max}/(n\mu) \to 0mpmax​/(nμ)→0 almost surely when m=O(n)m = O(\sqrt n)m=O(n​).
  5. Lemma 8.1 (ii): E pmax⁡/n→0\mathbb E\, p_{\max}/\sqrt n \to 0Epmax​/n​→0.
  6. p. 207: E Cn∗(m)/(nμ/m)→1\mathbb E\, C^*_n(m)/(n\mu/m) \to 1ECn∗​(m)/(nμ/m)→1 when m=O(n)m = O(\sqrt n)m=O(n​).
  7. p. 211, asymptotic clairvoyance: almost surely
lim⁡n→∞c mnH1+CnH2(mnH1)c mn∘+Cn∗(mn∘)=1,\lim_{n\to\infty} \frac{c\, m^{H1}_n + C^{H2}_n(m^{H1}_n)}{c\, m^\circ_n + C^*_n(m^\circ_n)} = 1 ,n→∞lim​cmn∘​+Cn∗​(mn∘​)cmnH1​+CnH2​(mnH1​)​=1,

where CnH2C^{H2}_nCnH2​ is the list-scheduling makespan.

Significance

Result (8.13) says that the optimal value of an NP-hard problem, rescaled, is almost surely asymptotic to the elementary function nμ/mn\mu/mnμ/m of the data and the first-stage decision. Its expectation version replaces the intractable term E Cn∗(m)\mathbb E\,C^*_n(m)ECn∗​(m) in (8.9) by nμ/mn\mu/mnμ/m, and the clairvoyance statement shows that the heuristic built on that replacement loses asymptotically nothing, not even against a decision maker with full information. The chapter presents the example as the template for vehicle routing and location problems preceded by an investment decision.

All results here are classical and proved in the literature cited by the chapter (Lemma 8.1 is quoted from Feller without proof; the chapter refers to Dempster et al. for the asymptotic optimality of the two-stage heuristic and to Lenstra et al. for the notion of asymptotic clairvoyance). None of them has, to our knowledge, a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal model of identical-machine makespan scheduling and of list scheduling, the extreme-value estimates of Lemma 8.1 for square-integrable i.i.d. sequences, and the full chain from the strong law to (8.13).

Difficulty

The deterministic part is elementary on paper, but list scheduling is a recursively defined procedure, and its makespan bound has to be established for that recursion rather than for a picture like the chapter's Figure 8.3. The probabilistic core is Lemma 8.1: the strong law controls Sn/nS_n/nSn​/n, but the error term m pmax⁡/(nμ)m\, p_{\max}/(n\mu)mpmax​/(nμ) is of order pmax⁡/np_{\max}/\sqrt npmax​/n​ once mmm grows like n\sqrt nn​, and the strong law says nothing about maxima. With a fixed number of machines the whole statement would reduce to the strong law; the growth m(n)=O(n)m(n) = O(\sqrt n)m(n)=O(n​) is exactly where the second moment is needed. For the clairvoyance statement, the clairvoyant choice mn∘m^\circ_nmn∘​ is a random, unstructured minimizer, so its value must be bounded below without knowing where the minimum is attained.

Formalization scope

Processing times are one sequence p : ℕ → Ω → ℝ, 0-based (the book's pjp_jpj​ is p (j-1)), with each p j measurable, the family mutually independent (iIndepFun), identically distributed with p 0, pointwise nonnegative, p 0 ^ 2 integrable and ∫ p 0 = μ with μ > 0. Nonnegativity and μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 are not printed in the book; they are implicit in "processing times" and in the division by nμn\munμ. Machines are Fin m; a schedule is an assignment Fin n → Fin m, which is faithful because jobs are non-preemptive, machines identical and there are no precedence constraints.

The book writes "m=0(n)m = 0(\sqrt n)m=0(n​)"; this is read as mmm a function of nnn with m(n)≥1m(n) \ge 1m(n)≥1 and (fun n => (m n : ℝ)) =O[atTop] (fun n => √n). Stating (8.13) for a fixed mmm would trivialize it into the strong law and is ruled out. "Pr⁡{lim⁡⋯=1}=1\Pr\{\lim \dots = 1\} = 1Pr{lim⋯=1}=1" means that almost surely the limit exists and equals 111. Expectations are Bochner integrals of functions that are measurable and bounded by SnS_nSn​, hence integrable. List scheduling uses the index order and breaks ties towards the lowest machine index; both are admissible instances of the book's "arbitrary fixed order" and "first available machine". In the clairvoyance statement the minimum is over m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 (the book writes m∈Nm \in \mathbb Nm∈N; no machine cannot process any job, and the Lean value Cn∗(0)C^*_n(0)Cn∗​(0) is an empty-infimum convention). No explicit constants replace an O(·): the statements are limits and the O-hypothesis is carried as stated.

Out of scope: (8.14) and the p. 210 expectation statement, which need a positive density at 000 and whose proof the book calls "far from easy", and the dynamic programming recursion of §8.3.

Needed infrastructure: finite maxima and minima of measurable functions, extreme-value estimates for square-integrable i.i.d. sequences (Lemma 8.1), and Mathlib's strong law. The makespan and list-scheduling definitions are reusable for other identical-machine scheduling results; alternative proofs of Lemma 8.1 and sharper forms of the clairvoyance statement are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, L. Stougie, "Stochastic Integer Programming", in Yu. Ermoliev, R. J-B Wets (eds.), Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 10, Springer 1988, Ch. 8, pp. 201–213. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1, 3rd edition, Wiley, 1968 (cited by the chapter for Lemma 8.1).
  • M. A. H. Dempster, M. L. Fisher, L. Jansen, B. J. Lageweg, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, "Analysis of heuristics for stochastic programming: results for hierarchical scheduling problems", Mathematics of Operations Research 8 (1983) 525–537. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.4.525
  • J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, L. Stougie, "A framework for the design and analysis of hierarchical planning systems", Annals of Operations Research 1 (1984) 23–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01874451
  • R. L. Graham, "Bounds on multiprocessing timing anomalies", SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 17 (1969) 416–429. https://doi.org/10.1137/0117039
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization III: Stochastic Quasi-Féjer Sequences and the Stochastic Quasigradient Projection MethodTextbook

Motivation

Many optimization problems in operations research have an objective that is an expectation, F0(x)=Ef0(x,ω)F^0(x)=E f^0(x,\omega)F0(x)=Ef0(x,ω), over a random parameter ω\omegaω whose distribution is known only through samples or is too complex to integrate. Two-stage stochastic programs, inventory and reliability models, and simulation-based design all have this form. Neither F0F^0F0 nor its subgradients can be evaluated exactly, but a random vector whose conditional mean is close to a subgradient is often cheap to compute: a sample subgradient of f0(⋅,ω)f^0(\cdot,\omega)f0(⋅,ω), or a finite-difference quotient of two sampled values.

Stochastic quasigradient (SQG) methods, developed by Ermoliev and co-workers in Kiev from the late 1960s, use such vectors in place of subgradients. They extend the stochastic approximation procedures of Robbins–Monro (1951) and Kiefer–Wolfowitz (1952) to nonsmooth convex objectives, general convex constraints, and directions whose conditional mean is biased by a vanishing amount. This mission formalizes the basic convergence theory of the simplest SQG method, the projection method, as presented by Yu. Ermoliev in Chapter 6 of the IIASA volume Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization (Springer 1988).

Timeline (as cited in the chapter's bibliography).

  • 1951–1954: Robbins and Monro, Kiefer and Wolfowitz, Dvoretzky and Blum prove convergence of stochastic approximation for unconstrained smooth problems.
  • 1962–1967: Shor introduces the generalized gradient (subgradient) method; Ermoliev (Kibernetika 4, 1966) and Polyak (Soviet Math. Doklady 8, 1967) prove its convergence.
  • 1967–1969: Ermoliev and Nekrylova introduce stochastic subgradients; Ermoliev ("On the stochastic quasi-gradient method and stochastic quasi-Feyer sequences", Kibernetika 2, 1969) introduces stochastic quasi-Féjer sequences.
  • 1976: Ermoliev's monograph Stochastic Programming Methods (Nauka) contains the proof of Theorem 6.1 (p. 98).
  • 1988: the survey chapter formalized here presents the projection method, Theorems 6.1 and 6.2, and an efficiency estimate for the averaged iterate.

Setting

Let X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be a nonempty convex compact set and F0:Rn→RF^0:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb RF0:Rn→R convex and continuous on XXX. The optimal set is X∗={x∈X:F0(x)≤F0(y) ∀y∈X}X^*=\{x\in X: F^0(x)\le F^0(y)\ \forall y\in X\}X∗={x∈X:F0(x)≤F0(y) ∀y∈X}. The projection onto XXX is πX(y)=argmin⁡{∥y−x∥2:x∈X}\pi_X(y)=\operatorname{argmin}\{\|y-x\|^2:x\in X\}πX​(y)=argmin{∥y−x∥2:x∈X}.

On a probability space, the stochastic quasigradient projection method produces random vectors x0,x1,…x^0,x^1,\dotsx0,x1,… by

xs+1=πX[xs−ρs ξ0(s)],s=0,1,…(6.11)x^{s+1}=\pi_X\big[x^s-\rho_s\,\xi^0(s)\big],\qquad s=0,1,\dots \tag{6.11}xs+1=πX​[xs−ρs​ξ0(s)],s=0,1,…(6.11)

where ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 is a step size and ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) a random direction. Write E{⋅∣x0,…,xs}E\{\cdot\mid x^0,\dots,x^s\}E{⋅∣x0,…,xs} for conditional expectation given the history σ(x0,…,xs)\sigma(x^0,\dots,x^s)σ(x0,…,xs). The direction is a stochastic quasigradient if, for every x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗,

F0(x∗)−F0(xs)≥⟨E{ξ0(s)∣x0,…,xs}, x∗−xs⟩+γ0(s)a.s.,(6.12)F^0(x^*)-F^0(x^s)\ge\big\langle E\{\xi^0(s)\mid x^0,\dots,x^s\},\,x^*-x^s\big\rangle+\gamma_0(s)\quad\text{a.s.}, \tag{6.12}F0(x∗)−F0(xs)≥⟨E{ξ0(s)∣x0,…,xs},x∗−xs⟩+γ0​(s)a.s.,(6.12)

where the error γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) is a function of the history. If the conditional mean of ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) is a subgradient plus a bias b0(s)b^0(s)b0(s), then (6.12) holds with γ0(s)=−⟨b0(s),x∗−xs⟩\gamma^0(s)=-\langle b^0(s),x^*-x^s\rangleγ0(s)=−⟨b0(s),x∗−xs⟩ (6.13).

A sequence of random vectors z0,z1,…z^0,z^1,\dotsz0,z1,… is a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for Z⊆RnZ\subseteq\mathbb R^nZ⊆Rn if E∥z0∥2<∞E\|z^0\|^2<\inftyE∥z0∥2<∞ and there are random rs≥0r_s\ge0rs​≥0 with ∑sErs<∞\sum_s E r_s<\infty∑s​Ers​<∞ such that for all z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z

E{∥z−zs+1∥2∣z0,…,zs}≤∥z−zs∥2+rs.(6.14)E\{\|z-z^{s+1}\|^2\mid z^0,\dots,z^s\}\le\|z-z^s\|^2+r_s. \tag{6.14}E{∥z−zs+1∥2∣z0,…,zs}≤∥z−zs∥2+rs​.(6.14)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.2

If, with probability 1, ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 and ∑sρs=∞\sum_s\rho_s=\infty∑s​ρs​=∞, and

∑s=0∞E{ρs∣γ0(s)∣+ρs2∥ξ0(s)∥2}<∞,(6.15)\sum_{s=0}^\infty E\{\rho_s|\gamma_0(s)|+\rho_s^2\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\}<\infty, \tag{6.15}s=0∑∞​E{ρs​∣γ0​(s)∣+ρs2​∥ξ0(s)∥2}<∞,(6.15)

then with probability 1 the iterates converge and lim⁡sxs∈X∗\lim_s x^s\in X^*lims​xs∈X∗.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 6.1 (a)–(c). For a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for ZZZ: ∥z−zs+1∥2\|z-z^{s+1}\|^2∥z−zs+1∥2 converges a.s. and E∥z−zs∥2E\|z-z^s\|^2E∥z−zs∥2 is bounded, for each z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z; accumulation points exist a.s. (for Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅); and a.s. ZZZ lies in the hyperplane equidistant from any two distinct accumulation points outside ZZZ.
  2. Eq. (6.13). Biased stochastic subgradients satisfy (6.12).
  3. One-step inequality (p. 145): E{∥x∗−xs+1∥2∣⋅}≤∥x∗−xs∥2+2ρs⟨E{ξ0(s)∣⋅},x∗−xs⟩+E{ρs2∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}E\{\|x^*-x^{s+1}\|^2\mid\cdot\}\le\|x^*-x^s\|^2+2\rho_s\langle E\{\xi^0(s)\mid\cdot\},x^*-x^s\rangle+E\{\rho_s^2\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\mid\cdot\}E{∥x∗−xs+1∥2∣⋅}≤∥x∗−xs∥2+2ρs​⟨E{ξ0(s)∣⋅},x∗−xs⟩+E{ρs2​∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅} for x∗∈Xx^*\in Xx∗∈X.
  4. Quasi-Féjer property (p. 145): the iterates of (6.11) form a stochastic quasi-Féjer sequence for X∗X^*X∗.
  5. Efficiency estimate (p. 147), for deterministic ρk\rho_kρk​ and xˉs=∑k≤sρkxk/∑k≤sρk\bar x^s=\sum_{k\le s}\rho_kx^k/\sum_{k\le s}\rho_kxˉs=∑k≤s​ρk​xk/∑k≤s​ρk​:
EF0(xˉs)−F0(x∗)≤(2∑k=0sρk)−1[E∥x∗−x0∥2+∑k=0sE(2ρk∣γ0(k)∣+ρk2∥ξ0(k)∥2)].E F^0(\bar x^s)-F^0(x^*)\le\Big(2\sum_{k=0}^s\rho_k\Big)^{-1}\Big[E\|x^*-x^0\|^2+\sum_{k=0}^s E\big(2\rho_k|\gamma_0(k)|+\rho_k^2\|\xi^0(k)\|^2\big)\Big].EF0(xˉs)−F0(x∗)≤(2k=0∑s​ρk​)−1[E∥x∗−x0∥2+k=0∑s​E(2ρk​∣γ0​(k)∣+ρk2​∥ξ0(k)∥2)].

Significance

Theorem 6.2 is the prototype convergence theorem for SQG methods. Its hypotheses allow random step sizes chosen from the history, nonsmooth objectives, and directions with a bias that vanishes fast enough; its conclusion is convergence of the iterates themselves to a single optimal point, not only convergence of function values or of dist⁡(xs,X∗)\operatorname{dist}(x^s,X^*)dist(xs,X∗). The later chapters of the same volume (adaptive step sizes, Chapters 17–18; nonstationary problems, §6.4) reuse the same framework. Theorem 6.1 isolates the probabilistic content in a form that applies to any algorithm with a quasi-Féjer inequality. The efficiency estimate gives a non-asymptotic accuracy bound for the averaged iterate.

The results are classical and proved in the literature: Theorem 6.1 in Ermoliev (1976, p. 98), Theorem 6.2 in this chapter (pp. 145–146). To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has conditional expectations and the a.s. martingale convergence theorem, but no Robbins–Siegmund-type almost-supermartingale lemma and no stochastic subgradient method. A formal proof of this mission would supply both.

Difficulty

The deterministic argument for projected subgradient methods compares ∥x∗−xs+1∥\|x^*-x^{s+1}\|∥x∗−xs+1∥ with ∥x∗−xs∥\|x^*-x^s\|∥x∗−xs∥ for a fixed x∗x^*x∗. In the stochastic setting this comparison holds only in conditional mean, with a perturbation rsr_srs​ that is random, and the distances converge only almost surely, with an exceptional null set that depends on x∗x^*x∗. Since X∗X^*X∗ is typically uncountable, "for every x∗x^*x∗, almost surely" does not immediately give "almost surely, for every x∗x^*x∗", and it is the second form that identifies a single limit. A second difficulty is that ∑ρs(F0(xs)−F0(x∗))<∞\sum\rho_s(F^0(x^s)-F^0(x^*))<\infty∑ρs​(F0(xs)−F0(x∗))<∞ only yields a subsequence along which F0F^0F0 approaches its minimum; passing from there to convergence of the whole sequence is exactly what part (c) of Theorem 6.1 is for.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The probability space is an arbitrary measurable space with a probability measure. πX\pi_XπX​ is a chosen minimizer of ∥y−x∥2\|y-x\|^2∥y−x∥2 over XXX (unique for nonempty closed convex XXX). The history is the σ\sigmaσ-algebra generated by x0,…,xsx^0,\dots,x^sx0,…,xs; ρs\rho_sρs​ and γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) are measurable with respect to it.
  • Directions ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) are integrable and random vectors are measurable; conditional expectations are Mathlib's condExp. The quasi-Féjer definition requires square integrability of every zsz^szs (implied by the book's definition when Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅), so no conditional expectation is taken of a non-integrable function.
  • X≠∅X\ne\emptysetX=∅ and x0∈Xx^0\in Xx0∈X are stated; Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅ is added in Theorem 6.1 (b), which is false without it.
  • γ0(s)\gamma_0(s)γ0​(s) does not depend on x∗x^*x∗; the x∗x^*x∗-dependent error of (6.13) is dominated on a bounded XXX by ∥b0(s)∥diam⁡X\|b^0(s)\|\operatorname{diam}X∥b0(s)∥diamX.
  • (6.15) keeps its mixed form: ρs≥0\rho_s\ge0ρs​≥0 and ∑ρs=∞\sum\rho_s=\infty∑ρs​=∞ almost surely, and a deterministic sum of expectations (lower Lebesgue integrals) finite.
  • Explicit constants. The book's "CCC" in the efficiency estimate is instantiated from its proof: 222 on ρk∣γ0(k)∣\rho_k|\gamma_0(k)|ρk​∣γ0​(k)∣ and 111 on ρk2∥ξ0(k)∥2\rho_k^2\|\xi^0(k)\|^2ρk2​∥ξ0(k)∥2. The unspecified CCC before the quasi-Féjer sentence is replaced by the existence of summable rsr_srs​.
  • Typo corrections. The one-step inequality on p. 145 prints ρsE{∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}\rho_sE\{\|\xi^0(s)\|^2\mid\cdot\}ρs​E{∥ξ0(s)∥2∣⋅}; it is ρs2\rho_s^2ρs2​. The efficiency estimate on p. 147 omits EEE before the last sum; it is restored. "ρk\rho_kρk​ independent of (x0,…,xk)(x^0,\dots,x^k)(x0,…,xk)" is read as deterministic step sizes.
  • A trivializing formalization is excluded: the goal does not replace ξ0(s)\xi^0(s)ξ0(s) by an exact subgradient, does not set γ0≡0\gamma_0\equiv0γ0​≡0, and concludes convergence of xsx^sxs to a point of X∗X^*X∗ rather than dist⁡(xs,X∗)→0\operatorname{dist}(x^s,X^*)\to0dist(xs,X∗)→0.
  • Reusable infrastructure: a Robbins–Siegmund lemma for nonnegative almost-supermartingales, the nonexpansiveness of πX\pi_XπX​, and Theorem 6.1 itself, which applies to any quasi-Féjer algorithm (Chapter 6 §6.4 and Chapters 17–18 of the same book). Contributions of these general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. Ermoliev, "Stochastic Quasigradient Methods", in Yu. Ermoliev and R. J-B Wets (eds.), Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 10, Springer 1988, Ch. 6, §6.1–6.2 (pp. 141–147). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61370-8
  • Yu. Ermoliev, "On the stochastic quasi-gradient method and stochastic quasi-Feyer sequences", Kibernetika 2 (1969) (in Russian; English translation in Cybernetics). Reference [3] of the chapter.
  • Yu. Ermoliev, Stochastic Programming Methods, Nauka, Moscow, 1976 (in Russian); Theorem 6.1 is on p. 98. Reference [5] of the chapter.
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, "A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications", in J. S. Rustagi (ed.), Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press, 1971, 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • H. Robbins and S. Monro, "A stochastic approximation method", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22 (1951) 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to the Scenario Approach V: Support Sets Certify the Violation of Nonconvex Scenario SolutionsTextbook

Why certify nonconvex scenario solutions

The scenario approach replaces an optimization problem with uncertain constraints θ∈Θδ\theta\in\Theta_\deltaθ∈Θδ​, δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ, by the program that enforces only NNN constraints Θδ1,…,ΘδN\Theta_{\delta_1},\dots,\Theta_{\delta_N}Θδ1​​,…,ΘδN​​ drawn at random from the distribution P\mathbb PP of the uncertainty. Its solution θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is then judged by its violation, the probability that a new instance δ\deltaδ is not satisfied. For convex programs in Rd\mathbb R^dRd the violation is controlled by the dimension ddd alone (Calafiore and Campi 2006; Campi and Garatti 2008), because a convex program has at most ddd support constraints. Many problems where the scenario approach is used in practice are not convex: control with quantized inputs, mixed-integer design, classification with nonconvex losses, and decisions over infinite-dimensional or unstructured sets. For those programs no a priori bound on the number of constraints that determine the solution exists.

Timeline, as recorded in Chapter 8 of Campi and Garatti's textbook:

  • 2006–2008: the violation of convex scenario solutions is bounded, and then characterized exactly, in terms of ddd.
  • 2018: the wait-and-judge theory (Campi and Garatti, Math. Programming 2018) evaluates the violation from the number of support constraints counted after solving the program; it extends to nonconvex programs but requires a nondegeneracy assumption.
  • 2018: Campi, Garatti and Ramponi (IEEE TAC 2018) prove a bound in terms of the size of any support set, with no convexity and no nondegeneracy assumption. This is the result formalized here, stated in the book as Eq. (8.15).

Setting

Let Θ\ThetaΘ be a generic set; it may be an infinite-dimensional space or a set with no algebraic structure. Let f:Θ→Rf:\Theta\to\mathbb Rf:Θ→R be a cost and Θδ⊆Θ\Theta_\delta\subseteq\ThetaΘδ​⊆Θ constraint sets indexed by δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ, where Δ\DeltaΔ carries a probability P\mathbb PP. Neither fff nor the Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​ is required to be convex. With a sample δ1,…,δN\delta_1,\dots,\delta_Nδ1​,…,δN​ drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the scenario program is

min⁡θ∈Θf(θ)subject toθ∈⋂i=1,…,NΘδi,(8.12)\min_{\theta\in\Theta} f(\theta)\quad\text{subject to}\quad \theta\in\bigcap_{i=1,\dots,N}\Theta_{\delta_i},\tag{8.12}θ∈Θmin​f(θ)subject toθ∈i=1,…,N⋂​Θδi​​,(8.12)

and θ∗\theta^*θ∗ denotes its solution, assumed to exist and be unique for every sample.

The violation of a decision is V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∉Θδ}V(\theta)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta:\theta\notin\Theta_\delta\}V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∈/Θδ​} (Definition 3.1).

A support set (Definition 8.8) is a subset {Θδi1,…,Θδik}\{\Theta_{\delta_{i_1}},\dots,\Theta_{\delta_{i_k}}\}{Θδi1​​​,…,Θδik​​​} of the constraints such that the program with only these constraints in place has the same solution θ∗\theta^*θ∗ as the program with all constraints. The full set of constraints is always a support set; a support set need not be minimal (of smallest cardinality) or irreducible (with no removable element). Let σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ be the cardinality of the support set returned, for every sample, by some fixed algorithm.

Formalization targets

Goal: the support-set bound, Eq. (8.15)

For every function ϵ:{0,1,…,N}→[0,1]\epsilon:\{0,1,\dots,N\}\to[0,1]ϵ:{0,1,…,N}→[0,1] with ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1,

PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤∑k=0N−1(Nk) (1−ϵ(k))N−k.\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*)>\epsilon(\sigma^*)\}\le\sum_{k=0}^{N-1}\binom Nk\,(1-\epsilon(k))^{N-k}.PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤k=0∑N−1​(kN​)(1−ϵ(k))N−k.

The level function ϵ\epsilonϵ is free: the statement is one inequality per admissible ϵ\epsilonϵ, and it holds for any algorithm producing support sets. This is the weakest form that carries the whole result.

Milestone: the level function for a confidence β\betaβ, Eq. (8.16)

For β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] let

ϵ(k)={1k=N,1−βN(Nk)N−kotherwise.\epsilon(k)=\begin{cases}1 & k=N,\\ 1-\sqrt[N-k]{\dfrac{\beta}{N\binom Nk}} & \text{otherwise.}\end{cases}ϵ(k)=⎩⎨⎧​11−N−kN(kN​)β​​​k=N,otherwise.​

The arithmetic half states that ϵ\epsilonϵ maps {0,…,N}\{0,\dots,N\}{0,…,N} into [0,1][0,1][0,1], ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1, and the right-hand side of (8.15) equals β\betaβ (for N≥1N\ge1N≥1). The probabilistic half states PN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤β\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*)>\epsilon(\sigma^*)\}\le\betaPN{V(θ∗)>ϵ(σ∗)}≤β.

Significance

The result turns the size of a support set, a quantity observed after the program is solved, into a certificate on the violation of the solution, for any optimization or decision problem whose solution is determined by a subset of the data. With the choice (8.16), a user who finds a support set of size σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ can assert V(θ∗)≤ϵ(σ∗)V(\theta^*)\le\epsilon(\sigma^*)V(θ∗)≤ϵ(σ∗) with confidence 1−β1-\beta1−β. The book's Figure 8.12 shows that ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k) for β=10−6\beta=10^{-6}β=10−6 remains well below 111 for kkk up to a sizeable fraction of NNN. Because the algorithm that finds the support set is arbitrary, cheap heuristics that return non-minimal support sets still give valid, if weaker, guarantees. The result does not recover the tight convex bound (3.4); for convex programs the Chapter 3 theory remains sharper.

The statement is proved in [31] and is the probabilistic core of the sample-compression arguments of learning theory (Floyd and Warmuth 1995) in the form used by the scenario approach. To the best of available knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. The platform's UnderstandingML.compression_bound proves a sample-compression bound for a fixed compression size with a different constant; it does not cover a data-dependent size σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ or an arbitrary level function. A formal proof here provides a reusable bound for data-dependent support sets over arbitrary decision sets.

Difficulty

The natural first step is: condition on the support set being a particular index set III with ∣I∣=k|I|=k∣I∣=k, and argue that the solution is then a function of the kkk sampled constraints in III alone, while the other N−kN-kN−k samples are independent of it and must all be satisfied. The difficulty is that the event "the algorithm returns III" depends on all NNN samples, and the solution of the reduced program on III is defined only where that program has a unique solution; the decomposition of the probability therefore has to be carried out on sections of the product space, with a measurability argument for each piece. A second point is that σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ is random and data-dependent: a bound for each fixed kkk does not directly give a bound at the random level ϵ(σ∗)\epsilon(\sigma^*)ϵ(σ∗), and the role of the condition ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1 must be accounted for at k=Nk=Nk=N.

Formalization scope

Lean representation and committed conventions:

  • Θ\ThetaΘ and Δ\DeltaΔ are arbitrary types with measurable structures; P\mathbb PP is a probability measure on Δ\DeltaΔ; a sample is ω : Fin N → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin N => P); indices run over 0,…,N−10,\dots,N-10,…,N−1.
  • A subset of constraints is a Finset (Fin N); the reduced program with index set III has feasible set ⋂i∈IΘδi\bigcap_{i\in I}\Theta_{\delta_i}⋂i∈I​Θδi​​ (all of Θ\ThetaΘ for I=∅I=\emptysetI=∅).
  • The solution map θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is a parameter with the hypothesis that θ∗(ω)\theta^*(\omega)θ∗(ω) is the unique solution of the full program for every sample.
  • "Has the same solution" in Definition 8.8 means: the reduced program has a unique solution and it equals the unique solution of the full program. Existence of solutions is not assumed for reduced programs in general, only for those that are support sets.
  • The algorithm is an arbitrary map alg : (Fin N → Δ) → Finset (Fin N) returning a support set for every sample; σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ is the cardinality of its output. The goal is universal over such maps.
  • ϵ\epsilonϵ is a real function on N\mathbb NN with ϵ(k)∈[0,1]\epsilon(k)\in[0,1]ϵ(k)∈[0,1] for k≤Nk\le Nk≤N and ϵ(N)=1\epsilon(N)=1ϵ(N)=1.
  • The violation is real-valued in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; the probability of the event is compared in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with ENNReal.ofReal of the real right-hand side.

Implicit hypotheses of the page, made explicit (the book states on p. 33 that measurability issues are glossed over): the constraint relation {(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ}\{(\theta,\delta):\theta\in\Theta_\delta\}{(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ​} is measurable in Θ×Δ\Theta\times\DeltaΘ×Δ; the solution map is measurable; each event {ω:the algorithm returns J}\{\omega:\text{the algorithm returns }J\}{ω:the algorithm returns J} is measurable; θ∗\theta^*θ∗ exists and is unique for every sample; N≥1N\ge1N≥1 in the arithmetic half of (8.16).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the algorithm is not existentially quantified and is not the minimal support set, the reduced programs are not all assumed solvable (which would be unsatisfiable when fff has no unconstrained minimizer), and the support-set property requires uniqueness of the reduced solution, without which the bound is false.

Needed infrastructure: product measures on Fin N → Δ, splitting of such products along a subset of coordinates, and Fubini/Tonelli for sections. These pieces are reusable for other compression-type bounds. Contributions welcome: proofs of the two milestones and of the goal, and lemmas on splitting Measure.pi over a Finset of coordinates.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM/MOS, 2018, §8.6, pp. 101–105. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, F. A. Ramponi, A general scenario theory for nonconvex optimization and decision making, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2018.2808446
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • S. Floyd, M. Warmuth, Sample compression, learnability, and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis dimension, Machine Learning, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00993593
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Algorithmic Game TheoryLinear OptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue: The Competitive Ratio of the Primal-Dual Allocation AlgorithmResearch Paper

Motivation

Search engines sell advertisement slots next to their results through ad-auctions. Advertisers bid on keywords, and each advertiser also sets a daily budget: the most it is willing to pay in a day. Queries arrive one at a time and each must be assigned to an advertiser at once, with no knowledge of the queries still to come. The seller's revenue from an advertiser is capped by its budget, so an allocation rule that ignores budgets can exhaust a high bidder early and forgo revenue that a more even allocation would have collected. The question is how much of the offline optimum an online rule can guarantee against every arrival sequence.

Mehta, Saberi, Vazirani and Vazirani (FOCS 2005 / J. ACM 2007) gave a deterministic algorithm whose competitive ratio tends to 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e when bids are small compared with budgets, and showed that no deterministic algorithm does better. Their algorithm builds on online bipartite matching (Karp, Vazirani and Vazirani, STOC 1990) and online bbb-matching (Kalyanasundaram and Pruhs, 2000). Buchbinder, Jain and Naor (ESA 2007) rederived the 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e bound with an online primal-dual algorithm, which gives the ratio in closed form for every value of the bid-to-budget ratio and extends to multiple slots, stochastic information, bounded degree and budget flexibility. This mission formalizes the basic algorithm of that paper and its Theorem 1.

Setting

There is a finite nonempty set III of buyers. Buyer iii has a known budget B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0. Products j=1,…,mj = 1, \dots, mj=1,…,m arrive one by one; when product jjj arrives, every buyer's bid b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0 on it is revealed. The bid-to-budget ratio is

Rmax⁡=max⁡i∈I, jb(i,j)B(i).R_{\max} = \max_{i \in I,\, j} \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)} .Rmax​=i∈I,jmax​B(i)b(i,j)​.

A fractional allocation y(i,j)≥0y(i,j) \ge 0y(i,j)≥0 assigns fractions of products to buyers; the revenue from buyer iii is the minimum of ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j) and B(i)B(i)B(i).

The offline fractional problem is the packing LP, which the paper calls the dual:

max⁡∑j∑ib(i,j) y(i,j)s.t.∑iy(i,j)≤1  ∀j,∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.\max \sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_i y(i,j) \le 1 \ \ \forall j,\qquad \sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i)\ \ \forall i,\qquad y \ge 0 .maxj∑​i∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)s.t.i∑​y(i,j)≤1  ∀j,j∑​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)  ∀i,y≥0.

Its LP dual, the paper's primal, is the covering LP:

min⁡∑iB(i) x(i)+∑jz(j)s.t.b(i,j) x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.\min \sum_i B(i)\,x(i) + \sum_j z(j) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad b(i,j)\,x(i) + z(j) \ge b(i,j)\ \ \forall i,j,\qquad x, z \ge 0 .mini∑​B(i)x(i)+j∑​z(j)s.t.b(i,j)x(i)+z(j)≥b(i,j)  ∀i,j,x,z≥0.

The Allocation Algorithm has a parameter c>1c > 1c>1 and starts from x≡0x \equiv 0x≡0. When product jjj arrives it takes a buyer iii maximizing b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1 - x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)). If x(i)≥1x(i) \ge 1x(i)≥1, the product is not sold. Otherwise it charges iii the minimum of b(i,j)b(i,j)b(i,j) and iii's remaining budget, sets y(i,j)←1y(i,j) \leftarrow 1y(i,j)←1 and z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i))z(j) \leftarrow b(i,j)(1 - x(i))z(j)←b(i,j)(1−x(i)), and updates

x(i)←x(i)(1+b(i,j)B(i))+b(i,j)(c−1) B(i).x(i) \leftarrow x(i)\Big(1 + \frac{b(i,j)}{B(i)}\Big) + \frac{b(i,j)}{(c-1)\,B(i)} .x(i)←x(i)(1+B(i)b(i,j)​)+(c−1)B(i)b(i,j)​.

Its revenue is the total amount charged.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every instance and every bound R>0R > 0R>0 with b(i,j)≤R B(i)b(i,j) \le R\,B(i)b(i,j)≤RB(i) for all i,ji, ji,j, the Allocation Algorithm run with c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R, under any tie-breaking of the maximum, satisfies for every feasible y′y'y′ of the packing LP

Revenue  ≥  (1−1c)(1−R)∑j∑ib(i,j) y′(i,j).\mathrm{Revenue} \;\ge\; \Big(1 - \frac1c\Big)(1 - R)\sum_{j}\sum_{i} b(i,j)\,y'(i,j).Revenue≥(1−c1​)(1−R)j∑​i∑​b(i,j)y′(i,j).

With R=Rmax⁡R = R_{\max}R=Rmax​ this is the paper's statement that the algorithm is (1−1/c)(1−Rmax⁡)(1 - 1/c)(1 - R_{\max})(1−1/c)(1−Rmax​)-competitive; the fractional optimum bounds every integral offline allocation.

Milestones

The proof of Theorem 1 rests on three claims and three auxiliary facts, each a milestone:

  1. the inequality ln⁡(1+x)/x≥ln⁡(1+y)/y\ln(1+x)/x \ge \ln(1+y)/yln(1+x)/x≥ln(1+y)/y for 0<x≤y≤10 < x \le y \le 10<x≤y≤1;
  2. Claim (1): the final (x,z)(x, z)(x,z) is feasible for the covering LP;
  3. Claim (2): the covering cost of the run equals (1+1/(c−1))(1 + 1/(c-1))(1+1/(c−1)) times the packing value of the run's own yyy;
  4. Inequality (1): x(i)≥1c−1(c∑jb(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1)x(i) \ge \frac{1}{c-1}\big(c^{\sum_j b(i,j) y(i,j)/B(i)} - 1\big)x(i)≥c−11​(c∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)/B(i)−1) at every stage of the run;
  5. Claim (3): ∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)≤B(i)+max⁡jb(i,j)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j) \le B(i) + \max_j b(i,j)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j)≤B(i)+maxj​b(i,j), and the amount charged to iii is at least (1−R)∑jb(i,j) y(i,j)(1 - R)\sum_j b(i,j)\,y(i,j)(1−R)∑j​b(i,j)y(i,j);
  6. weak duality for the LP pair above;

and, separately, the second sentence of Theorem 1,

lim⁡R→0+(1−1(1+R)1/R)(1−R)=1−1e.\lim_{R\to 0^+}\Big(1 - \frac{1}{(1+R)^{1/R}}\Big)(1-R) = 1 - \frac1e .R→0+lim​(1−(1+R)1/R1​)(1−R)=1−e1​.

Significance

Theorem 1 gives an explicit ratio for every value of Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​, not only in the limit. It tends to the optimal deterministic ratio 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e as bids become small, and it quantifies how the guarantee degrades as single bids become a larger share of a budget. The primal-dual analysis is the template for the paper's later sections and for a line of work on online packing and covering problems, surveyed in Buchbinder and Naor's monograph The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach (Foundations and Trends in TCS, 2009).

The result is proved in the paper, and the proof is short. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof about an algorithm that is defined, not described: the run is computed by recursion from the instance, and the guarantee is proved for that run and every tie-breaking. A related private mission on the platform, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach VI: Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, states the monograph's Theorem 10.1, which is this theorem, in a form that takes the analysis's intermediate inequalities as hypotheses over arbitrary lists of won bids; the present mission states it for the algorithm itself. No machine-checked proof of Theorem 1 is known to this mission.

Difficulty

Each step of the proof is elementary; the difficulty is the bookkeeping of an online process. Claims (1) and (2) are statements about a single iteration that must be lifted to the whole run: Claim (1) uses that xxx only increases, and Claim (2) that each product is processed once. Inequality (1) is an induction over the iterations that allocate to one buyer, interleaved with iterations that allocate to others and is the only place where the value of ccc matters. Claim (3) needs a further invariant: the amount charged equals the minimum of the allocated bids and the budget.

A tempting shortcut is to take Inequality (1) and the "at most one undercharge" fact as hypotheses about some list of bids. That does not describe the algorithm and is not the theorem; here the only hypotheses are on the instance and on the tie-breaking rule.

Formalization scope

Buyers are a type I with [Fintype I] and [Nonempty I]; products are Fin m, whose order is the arrival order. Bids and budgets are real, with B(i)>0B(i) > 0B(i)>0 and b(i,j)≥0b(i,j) \ge 0b(i,j)≥0. The state of the algorithm records xxx, the amounts charged, yyy and zzz; one iteration is step, the run after kkk products is runPrefix, and revenue sums the charges of the final state. The tie-breaking rule is a function sel of the current xxx and the product, required to return a maximizer of b(i,j)(1−x(i))b(i,j)(1-x(i))b(i,j)(1−x(i)); the theorem holds for every such rule. The constant c=(1+R)1/Rc = (1+R)^{1/R}c=(1+R)1/R is a real power and requires R>0R > 0R>0. The theorem is stated for any bound RRR on the ratios, of which the exact maximum is one instance. Claims (1) and (2) are stated for every c>1c > 1c>1, which covers the paper's choice. The paper's inequality for ln⁡(1+x)/x\ln(1+x)/xln(1+x)/x allows x=0x = 0x=0, read as a limit; the Lean statement requires x>0x > 0x>0.

A statement over an unconstrained allocation, or one conditioned on the proof's own intermediate inequalities, would be trivially true or false; the targets here concern only the run the definitions compute.

The development needs finite sums, real powers and logarithms from Mathlib and an induction principle for the run. The LP pair and weak duality are reusable for the paper's extensions, and the run invariants for any primal-dual online algorithm with multiplicative updates. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are sharper variants, such as the exact-Rmax⁡R_{\max}Rmax​ form or the bound against integral allocations.

Selected references

  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, J. Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Maximizing Ad-Auctions Revenue, Algorithms – ESA 2007, LNCS 4698, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-75520-3_24
  • A. Mehta, A. Saberi, U. Vazirani, V. Vazirani, AdWords and Generalized Online Matching, Journal of the ACM 54(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1145/1284320.1284321
  • R. M. Karp, U. V. Vazirani, V. V. Vazirani, An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching, STOC 1990. https://doi.org/10.1145/100216.100262
  • B. Kalyanasundaram, K. R. Pruhs, An Optimal Deterministic Algorithm for Online b-Matching, Theoretical Computer Science 233(1–2), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3975(99)00140-1
  • N. Buchbinder, J. Naor, The Design of Competitive Online Algorithms via a Primal-Dual Approach, Foundations and Trends in Theoretical Computer Science 3(2–3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1561/0400000024
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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Value of Information in Bayesian Routing Games I: Sign and Monotonicity of the Relative Value of Information Across Size RegimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Traffic information systems (TIS) such as navigation apps send drivers noisy signals about the state of a road network: incidents, weather, closures. When several such systems coexist, each with its own subscriber base and its own information, a natural question for operators and regulators is whether subscribing to one system rather than another actually lowers a driver's expected travel cost in equilibrium, and how this advantage depends on how many drivers use each system. More information for one population also changes the congestion everybody else faces, so the answer is not simply "more information is better".

Wu, Amin and Ozdaglar (Operations Research 69(1), 2021) answer this question for nonatomic routing games with heterogeneous, possibly correlated information. Their model builds on the weighted potential game framework of Sandholm (2001) and on sensitivity analysis of convex programs. This mission formalizes their Section 5 result: for any two populations the sign of the relative value of information is determined by which of three explicitly computable size regimes the population sizes lie in, and the relative value decreases as one population grows at the expense of the other.

Setting

A Bayesian routing game has a finite set of populations I\mathcal II, one per TIS, a finite set of network states S\mathcal SS, and for each population iii a finite nonempty type space Ti\mathcal T^iTi of signals. A common prior π\piπ is a probability distribution on S×T\mathcal S\times\mathcal TS×T, T=∏iTi\mathcal T=\prod_i\mathcal T^iT=∏i​Ti. A network with a single origin–destination pair has edges E\mathcal EE and a finite nonempty set of routes R\mathcal RR; each edge has a state-dependent cost cesc^s_eces​ that is positive, strictly increasing and differentiable. The total demand is D>0D>0D>0, and population iii carries the fraction λi\lambda^iλi of it, with λi≥0\lambda^i\ge0λi≥0 and ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda^i=1∑i​λi=1.

A strategy profile qqq assigns to each population iii and type tit^iti a split qri(ti)≥0q^i_r(t^i)\ge0qri​(ti)≥0 of its demand λiD\lambda^iDλiD over routes. It induces the route flow fr(t)=∑iqri(ti)f_r(t)=\sum_iq^i_r(t^i)fr​(t)=∑i​qri​(ti) and the edge load we(t)=∑r∋efr(t)w_e(t)=\sum_{r\ni e}f_r(t)we​(t)=∑r∋e​fr​(t). With the belief βi(s,t−i∣ti)=π(s,ti,t−i)/Pr⁡(ti)\beta^i(s,t^{-i}\mid t^i)=\pi(s,t^i,t^{-i})/\Pr(t^i)βi(s,t−i∣ti)=π(s,ti,t−i)/Pr(ti), type tit^iti evaluates route rrr by its expected cost E[cr(q)∣ti]\mathbb E[c_r(q)\mid t^i]E[cr​(q)∣ti]. A Bayesian Wardrop equilibrium (BWE) is a feasible qqq in which every type uses only routes of minimal expected cost. The equilibrium population cost is Ci∗(λ)=∑tiPr⁡(ti)min⁡rE[cr(q)∣ti]C^{i*}(\lambda)=\sum_{t^i}\Pr(t^i)\min_r\mathbb E[c_r(q)\mid t^i]Ci∗(λ)=∑ti​Pr(ti)minr​E[cr​(q)∣ti] at a BWE qqq.

The game has a weighted potential Φ(q)=∑s,e,tπ(s,t)∫0we(t)ces(z) dz\Phi(q)=\sum_{s,e,t}\pi(s,t)\int_0^{w_e(t)}c^s_e(z)\,dzΦ(q)=∑s,e,t​π(s,t)∫0we​(t)​ces​(z)dz; its minimum over feasible profiles is the equilibrium potential value Ψ(λ)\Psi(\lambda)Ψ(λ). For two populations i≠ji\ne ji=j, the direction zijz^{ij}zij moves demand share from jjj to iii, and ∣λ−ij∣|\lambda^{-ij}|∣λ−ij∣ is the total share of the other populations. The impact of information J^i(f)\widehat J^i(f)Ji(f) measures how much of population iii's demand is moved by its signal. Two thresholds λ‾i≤λ‾i\underline\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^iλ​i≤λi are computed from the optimal set Fij,†\mathcal F^{ij,\dagger}Fij,† of an auxiliary convex program over route flows in which the separate information constraints of iii and jjj are merged. They define three regimes: Λ1ij\Lambda^{ij}_1Λ1ij​ (λi<λ‾i\lambda^i<\underline\lambda^iλi<λ​i), Λ2ij\Lambda^{ij}_2Λ2ij​ (λ‾i≤λi≤λ‾i\underline\lambda^i\le\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^iλ​i≤λi≤λi) and Λ3ij\Lambda^{ij}_3Λ3ij​ (λi>λ‾i\lambda^i>\overline\lambda^iλi>λi). The relative value of information is Vij∗(λ)=Cj∗(λ)−Ci∗(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda)=C^{j*}(\lambda)-C^{i*}(\lambda)Vij∗(λ)=Cj∗(λ)−Ci∗(λ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For i≠ji\ne ji=j and admissible λ\lambdaλ (in the simplex with λi,λj>0\lambda^i,\lambda^j>0λi,λj>0), and every BWE of Γ(λ)\Gamma(\lambda)Γ(λ),

Vij∗(λ)>0 on Λ1ij,Vij∗(λ)=0 on Λ2ij,Vij∗(λ)<0 on Λ3ij,V^{ij*}(\lambda)>0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_1,\qquad V^{ij*}(\lambda)=0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_2,\qquad V^{ij*}(\lambda)<0 \text{ on } \Lambda^{ij}_3,Vij∗(λ)>0 on Λ1ij​,Vij∗(λ)=0 on Λ2ij​,Vij∗(λ)<0 on Λ3ij​,

and Vij∗V^{ij*}Vij∗ is nonincreasing along zijz^{ij}zij: Vij∗(λ+εzij)≤Vij∗(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda+\varepsilon z^{ij})\le V^{ij*}(\lambda)Vij∗(λ+εzij)≤Vij∗(λ) for ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with both endpoints admissible.

Milestones

The route to the goal follows the paper: Lemma 1 (weighted potential), Lemma 2 (strict convexity of the edge-load potential), Theorem 1 (equilibria are the minimizers of Φ\PhiΦ; unique edge load), Lemma 3 (unique Lagrange multipliers), Proposition 1 (the feasible route flows form a polytope F(λ)\mathcal F(\lambda)F(λ)), Proposition 2 (equilibrium route flows minimize Φ^\widehat\PhiΦ over F(λ)\mathcal F(\lambda)F(λ)), Lemma 4 (0≤λ‾i≤λ‾i≤1−∣λ−ij∣0\le\underline\lambda^i\le\overline\lambda^i\le1-|\lambda^{-ij}|0≤λ​i≤λi≤1−∣λ−ij∣), Theorem 2 (equilibrium flows in each regime), Proposition 3 (Ψ\PsiΨ decreases, stays constant, increases along zijz^{ij}zij in the three regimes) and Lemma 5 (Ψ\PsiΨ is convex and directionally differentiable, and Vij∗(λ)=−1D∇zijΨ(λ)V^{ij*}(\lambda)=-\frac1D\nabla_{z^{ij}}\Psi(\lambda)Vij∗(λ)=−D1​∇zij​Ψ(λ)).

Significance

Theorem 3 says that a population has an advantage over another exactly when it is the minor population of the pair, relative to thresholds that depend only on the other populations' sizes. Both populations face the same equilibrium cost in the middle regime. It gives a procedure for comparing two information systems without computing equilibria for each size vector: solve one convex program, read off two thresholds, and locate λi\lambda^iλi. The paper's Section 6 uses the same machinery, through Lemma 5, to characterize the equilibrium adoption rates of information systems.

The paper proves these results with the main proofs in the article and the sensitivity-analysis lemmas (Lemmas EC.1–EC.4) in its e-companion. None of them has a machine-checked proof. The formalization requires a Lean account of Bayesian Wardrop equilibria, of the equivalence between equilibria and a convex program, and of directional derivatives of the optimal value of a parametric convex program. Parts of this are reusable for any nonatomic routing or congestion game.

Difficulty

The equilibrium strategy profile is not unique and changes discontinuously with λ\lambdaλ. Differentiating equilibrium costs in λ\lambdaλ directly therefore fails. The paper instead works with the optimal value Ψ(λ)\Psi(\lambda)Ψ(λ), whose one-sided directional derivative is expressed through Lagrange multipliers. That requires a sensitivity theorem for convex programs whose constraints depend affinely on the parameter, together with uniqueness of multipliers, which fails for populations of size zero. The regime analysis also needs a characterization of the route flows that are induced by feasible strategy profiles. That set is described by the nonlinear-looking constraint J^i(f)≤λiD\widehat J^i(f)\le\lambda^iDJi(f)≤λiD, a minimum over types inside a sum over routes. Strict monotonicity of Ψ\PsiΨ in the side regimes needs the tightness of an information constraint at every equilibrium, not only at one.

Formalization scope

The model is a Lean structure BayesRouting.VOI.Game over finite types of populations, type spaces, states, edges and routes. Routes are given by their edge sets, and the directed-graph structure is not used. Type spaces and the route set are nonempty. The prior is a probability distribution, D>0D>0D>0, and costs are positive on nonnegative loads, strictly increasing and differentiable on R\mathbb RR. One assumption is added: every type profile has positive probability. It makes beliefs well defined and the equilibrium edge load unique, and it excludes perfectly correlated signals.

Conventions: Ci∗C^{i*}Ci∗ is the last form of eq. (7), which does not divide by λiD\lambda^iDλiD. J^i\widehat J^iJi is the maximum of eq. (16) over the reference profile, so that J^i(f)≤λiD\widehat J^i(f)\le\lambda^iDJi(f)≤λiD is exactly (14d). Ψ\PsiΨ and the thresholds are sInf/sSup over sets that are nonempty and compact for size vectors in the simplex, and every statement keeps size vectors there. Statements about "the" equilibrium are stated for every BWE, and existence of a BWE is a separate item, so they are not vacuous. The thresholds are defined from the optimal set of the auxiliary program, not assumed as parameters. Taking them as parameters constrained only by Lemma 4 would give a different theorem.

Disclosed deviations: Lemma 2's C2C^2C2 clause assumes C1C^1C1 costs; Lemma 3 is stated for populations of positive size; Lemma 5 assumes λj>0\lambda^j>0λj>0; Proposition 3 is stated with strict monotonicity in the side regimes, as used in the proof of Theorem 3. Contributions of reusable infrastructure are welcome: interval-integral potentials of monotone costs, KKT theory for polyhedral constraints, and directional derivatives of parametric optimal values.

Selected references

  • M. Wu, S. Amin, A. Ozdaglar, Value of Information in Bayesian Routing Games, Operations Research 69(1):148–163, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.1999
  • W. H. Sandholm, Potential Games with Continuous Player Sets, Journal of Economic Theory 97(1):81–108, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.2000.2696
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Directional Differentiability of the Optimal Value Function in a Nonlinear Programming Problem, in Sensitivity, Stability and Parametric Analysis (Mathematical Programming Studies 21), Springer, 1984, pp. 213–226.
  • A. V. Fiacco, J. Kyparisis, Convexity and Concavity Properties of the Optimal Value Function in Parametric Nonlinear Programming, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 48(1):95–126, 1986.
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CombinatoricsDiscrete Geometry·Captain: mikedeng1

Extremal Problems in Discrete Geometry: The Szemerédi–Trotter Incidence BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

How many times can nnn points and ttt lines in the plane meet? The question is the prototype of incidence geometry, and the answer controls a long list of problems in discrete and computational geometry: the number of lines rich in points, the number of distinct distances or unit distances among nnn points, the complexity of arrangements, and sum–product estimates in additive combinatorics. Erdős asked for the order of magnitude when t=nt = nt=n and conjectured that the answer is n4/3n^{4/3}n4/3; Erdős and Purdy asked for the matching bound on the number of lines containing at least kkk of the points.

Szemerédi and Trotter settled both questions in Extremal Problems in Discrete Geometry (Combinatorica 3 (1983) 381–392, doi:10.1007/BF02579194). Their principal theorem bounds the number of point–line incidences by c1n2/3t2/3c_1 n^{2/3} t^{2/3}c1​n2/3t2/3 over the whole range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), and the same paper derives from it the Erdős–Purdy bound on kkk-rich lines, a version of Dirac's conjecture (proved independently by Beck, Combinatorica 3 (1983)), and a bound on the number of sequences of line densities.

Timeline.

  • Erdős conjectures O(n4/3)O(n^{4/3})O(n4/3) incidences for nnn points and nnn lines, and shows by a grid construction that this order would be sharp.
  • 1983: Szemerédi and Trotter prove the bound c1n2/3t2/3c_1 n^{2/3} t^{2/3}c1​n2/3t2/3 for n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), with c1=1060c_1 = 10^{60}c1​=1060, by a minimal-counterexample argument and a covering lemma for squares from their earlier paper.
  • 1990: Clarkson, Edelsbrunner, Guibas, Sharir and Welzl give a second proof by cuttings, with a far smaller constant (Discrete Comput. Geom. 5 (1990) 99–160).
  • 1997: Székely derives the bound in a few lines from the crossing lemma (Combin. Probab. Comput. 6 (1997) 353–358).

Setting

Work in the Euclidean plane R2\mathbb R^2R2, written Plane in the Lean development. A line is an affine subspace l⊆R2l \subseteq \mathbb R^2l⊆R2 whose direction space has dimension one (IsLine l). Let P\mathcal PP be a finite set of nnn points and L\mathcal LL a finite family of ttt distinct lines. The number of incidences is

I(P,L)=#{(p,l)∈P×L:p∈l},I(\mathcal P, \mathcal L) = \#\{(p, l) \in \mathcal P \times \mathcal L : p \in l\},I(P,L)=#{(p,l)∈P×L:p∈l},

written incidences P L. The degree did_idi​ of a point pip_ipi​ is the number of lines of L\mathcal LL through it (degree L p), and the density yjy_jyj​ of a line ljl_jlj​ is the number of points of P\mathcal PP on it (density P l); so I=∑idi=∑jyjI = \sum_i d_i = \sum_j y_jI=∑i​di​=∑j​yj​.

For the covering lemma, coordinate axes are fixed and a square is a closed axis-parallel square Q(a,b,s)=[a,a+s]×[b,b+s]Q(a,b,s) = [a, a+s] \times [b, b+s]Q(a,b,s)=[a,a+s]×[b,b+s] with side s>0s > 0s>0 (closedSquare (a, b, s)); its interior is the open square (a,a+s)×(b,b+s)(a, a+s) \times (b, b+s)(a,a+s)×(b,b+s) (openSquare). A square contains the points of P\mathcal PP in the closed square, and a family of squares covers the points lying in at least one of them.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 381, restated and proved on p. 383)

There is an absolute constant c1c_1c1​ such that for every finite point set P\mathcal PP with ∣P∣=n|\mathcal P| = n∣P∣=n and every finite family L\mathcal LL of ttt distinct lines,

n≤t≤(n2)⟹I(P,L)≤c1 n2/3 t2/3.\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad I(\mathcal P, \mathcal L) \le c_1\, n^{2/3}\, t^{2/3}.n​≤t≤(2n​)⟹I(P,L)≤c1​n2/3t2/3.

The goal leaves c1c_1c1​ unspecified. The paper's proof gives c1=1060c_1 = 10^{60}c1​=1060, and later proofs give much smaller values; any improvement of the constant still proves this statement.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Section 3, display on p. 383. Two distinct lines meet in at most one point, so the number of good intersections is at most the number of pairs of lines:
∑i(di2)≤(t2),I22n−I2≤t22.\sum_{i} \binom{d_i}{2} \le \binom t2, \qquad \frac{I^2}{2n} - \frac I2 \le \frac{t^2}{2}.i∑​(2di​​)≤(2t​),2nI2​−2I​≤2t2​.
  1. Section 3, inequality (1), p. 384. 0.6 x+(1−x)2/3≤10.6\,x + (1-x)^{2/3} \le 10.6x+(1−x)2/3≤1 for 0<x≤1/20 < x \le 1/20<x≤1/2.
  2. Section 3, inequality (5), p. 385. x2/3+(1−x)/100+2−1/3(1−x)2/3≤1x^{2/3} + (1-x)/100 + 2^{-1/3}(1-x)^{2/3} \le 1x2/3+(1−x)/100+2−1/3(1−x)2/3≤1 for 0<x≤0.10 < x \le 0.10<x≤0.1, and the reverse strict inequality holds somewhere in (0.1,0.2)(0.1, 0.2)(0.1,0.2).
  3. Section 3, display on p. 387. With M=1010M = 10^{10}M=1010, 2i/3(1−2/M)4i/3≥200/((0.1)1/322/3)2^{i/3}(1 - 2/M)^{4i/3} \ge 200/((0.1)^{1/3} 2^{2/3})2i/3(1−2/M)4i/3≥200/((0.1)1/322/3) for every integer i≥30i \ge 30i≥30.
  4. Section 2, Lemma (covering lemma), p. 382. For integers 1≤r1≤n1 \le r_1 \le n1≤r1​≤n and r2≥256r1r_2 \ge 256 r_1r2​≥256r1​, every set of nnn points is covered, to at least n/16n/16n/16 of its points, by a family of squares with pairwise disjoint interiors, each containing between r1r_1r1​ and r2r_2r2​ of the points.

Significance

The result. The bound n2/3t2/3n^{2/3} t^{2/3}n2/3t2/3 is sharp up to the constant throughout the range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​), as integer-grid configurations show. Outside that range the trivial bounds n+t2n + t^2n+t2 and t+n2t + n^2t+n2 take over. Theorem 1 is the source of the O(n2/k3)O(n^2/k^3)O(n2/k3) bound on kkk-rich lines (the paper's Theorem 2), of Beck's theorem (Theorem 3), and, through them, of the unit-distance bound O(n4/3)O(n^{4/3})O(n4/3), of the Elekes sum–product estimate and of many algorithmic bounds on arrangements. It is the first nontrivial case of the polynomial-partitioning incidence theory developed since 2010.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved, and reproved in several ways, for four decades. To the best of the mission's knowledge Mathlib has no statement of it, of the crossing lemma, or of any point–line incidence bound in the Euclidean plane. This mission produces a checked statement of the theorem with lines as genuine one-dimensional affine subspaces and an absolute constant. It also produces checked statements of the auxiliary facts the 1983 proof uses. A complete proof may follow the original argument, the cutting argument or Székely's crossing-lemma argument; any of them closes the goal.

Difficulty

Counting pairs of lines through common points (milestone 1) gives only I≲n1/2t+nI \lesssim n^{1/2} t + nI≲n1/2t+n, and its dual gives I≲t1/2n+tI \lesssim t^{1/2} n + tI≲t1/2n+t. These Cauchy–Schwarz bounds use only the fact that two lines meet at most once, a property shared by lines in finite projective planes, where the incidence count genuinely reaches order n3/2n^{3/2}n3/2. Any proof of the n2/3t2/3n^{2/3} t^{2/3}n2/3t2/3 bound must therefore use a property of the real plane that the finite geometries lack: order, continuity, or the planarity of drawings. Szemerédi and Trotter use it through a covering lemma for axis-parallel squares, whose proof is only cited in the paper ([7]). The remaining difficulty is keeping the constants of a multi-stage minimal-counterexample argument under control.

Formalization scope

The plane is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin 2). A line is an AffineSubspace ℝ Plane whose direction has Module.finrank equal to 111. Every statement requires IsLine of each member of L\mathcal LL, so neither the whole plane nor a single point counts as a line. The points form a Finset Plane and the lines a Finset (AffineSubspace ℝ Plane), which makes the ttt lines distinct. Incidences, degrees and densities are Finset.filter cardinalities under classical decidability. Powers n2/3n^{2/3}n2/3, t2/3t^{2/3}t2/3 are Real.rpow of the counts cast to R\mathbb RR, and (n2)\binom n2(2n​) is Nat.choose.

In the goal, the constant c1c_1c1​ is quantified before the points and the lines. The form "for every configuration there is a c1c_1c1​" is trivially true (take c1=I+1c_1 = I + 1c1​=I+1) and is not this theorem. Both ends of the range n≤t≤(n2)\sqrt n \le t \le \binom n2n​≤t≤(2n​) are kept exactly: without the lower end, a single line through nnn collinear points has nnn incidences, more than c1n2/3c_1 n^{2/3}c1​n2/3 for large nnn.

The goal follows the wording of p. 381 ("at most"). The restatement on p. 383 says "less than", which fails at n=t=0n = t = 0n=t=0 and is equivalent for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 after doubling c1c_1c1​. The covering lemma is stated with the added non-degeneracy hypotheses 1≤r1≤n1 \le r_1 \le n1≤r1​≤n. As printed it fails when 0<n<r10 < n < r_10<n<r1​ (no square can hold r1r_1r1​ points), and when r1=r2=0r_1 = r_2 = 0r1​=r2​=0 with n>0n > 0n>0.

A full development needs a real-plane incidence toolkit: a crossing lemma or a cutting lemma, or the covering lemma with its quadtree proof. That toolkit is reusable for kkk-rich lines, Beck's theorem, unit distances and sum–product bounds, and contributions of such infrastructure as separate theorems are welcome. The three numerical milestones are self-contained real-analysis exercises.

Selected references

  • E. Szemerédi, W. T. Trotter, Jr., Extremal problems in discrete geometry, Combinatorica 3 (1983) 381–392. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579194
  • E. Szemerédi, W. T. Trotter, Jr., A combinatorial distinction between the Euclidean and projective planes, European J. Combin. 4 (1983) 385–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0195-6698(83)80036-5
  • J. Beck, On the lattice property of the plane and some problems of Dirac, Motzkin and Erdős in combinatorial geometry, Combinatorica 3 (1983) 281–297. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579184
  • K. L. Clarkson, H. Edelsbrunner, L. J. Guibas, M. Sharir, E. Welzl, Combinatorial complexity bounds for arrangements of curves and spheres, Discrete Comput. Geom. 5 (1990) 99–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02187783
  • L. A. Székely, Crossing numbers and hard Erdős problems in discrete geometry, Combin. Probab. Comput. 6 (1997) 353–358. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0963548397002976
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithmic Mechanism Design VI: With Verification, the Compensation-and-Bonus Mechanism Is a Strongly Truthful Optimal ImplementationResearch Paper

Motivation

Scheduling tasks on machines owned by self-interested parties is the running example of Nisan and Ronen's Algorithmic Mechanism Design (Games and Economic Behavior 35, 2001), the paper that introduced the study of mechanisms whose allocation rule is an algorithm with a computational objective. Each machine (agent) privately knows how long it needs for each task; the designer wants to minimize the make-span, the completion time of the last machine, and can only influence the agents through payments.

Without further information the designer is in a weak position: the paper shows that no mechanism approximates the optimal make-span within a factor below 2 (Theorem 4.6), and that the natural truthful mechanism, MinWork, only achieves a factor nnn. Section 5 of the paper observes that in many applications the designer learns more than the agents' reports: it can pay after the work is done and observe how long each task actually took. It introduces mechanisms with verification and shows that, with this extra information, the make-span can be minimized exactly by a strongly truthful mechanism. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 5.1, together with the steps of its proof and the participation variant, Theorem 5.4.

Setting

There are kkk tasks and nnn agents. The type of agent iii is the vector ti=(t1i,…,tki)t^i = (t^i_1,\dots,t^i_k)ti=(t1i​,…,tki​) of positive numbers, tjit^i_jtji​ being the least time in which agent iii can perform task jjj. An allocation xxx gives each task to one agent; xix^ixi is the set of tasks of agent iii. For a type vector ttt and for a vector t~\tilde tt~ of actual execution times the make-spans are

g(x,t)=max⁡i∑j∈xitji,g(x,t~)=max⁡i∑j∈xit~j.g(x,t) = \max_i \sum_{j\in x^i} t^i_j, \qquad g(x,\tilde t) = \max_i \sum_{j\in x^i} \tilde t_j .g(x,t)=imax​j∈xi∑​tji​,g(x,t~)=imax​j∈xi∑​t~j​.

A mechanism with verification is a pair (x,p)(x, p)(x,p). The allocation x(d)x(d)x(d) is computed from the agents' declarations d=(d1,…,dn)d = (d^1,\dots,d^n)d=(d1,…,dn) only. Each agent then performs its tasks, in any times t~j≥tji\tilde t_j \ge t^i_jt~j​≥tji​ it chooses, and the mechanism pays agent iii the amount pi(d,t~)p^i(d, \tilde t)pi(d,t~), which may depend on the declarations and on the observed actual times. Agent iii's utility is pi(d,t~)−∑j∈xit~jp^i(d,\tilde t) - \sum_{j \in x^i} \tilde t_jpi(d,t~)−∑j∈xi​t~j​. A strategy of agent iii therefore has two parts: a declaration did^idi and an execution plan eie^iei that says, for every allocation, how long the agent takes on each of its tasks.

A strategy is dominant if it maximizes the agent's utility against all declarations and all execution plans of the other agents. The mechanism is truthful if, for every agent and type, declaring the true type (with a suitable execution plan) is dominant, and strongly truthful if the only dominant strategy is to declare the true type and to execute every task in minimal time.

The Compensation-and-Bonus mechanism uses an optimal allocation algorithm x(⋅)x(\cdot)x(⋅) and pays

pi(d,t~)=∑j∈xi(d)t~j⏟compensation ci  − g(x(d),corri(x(d),d,t~))⏟bonus bi,p^i(d,\tilde t) = \underbrace{\sum_{j \in x^i(d)} \tilde t_j}_{\text{compensation } c^i} \;\underbrace{-\, g\big(x(d), \mathrm{corr}^i(x(d), d, \tilde t)\big)}_{\text{bonus } b^i},pi(d,t~)=compensation cij∈xi(d)∑​t~j​​​bonus bi−g(x(d),corri(x(d),d,t~))​​,

where the corrected time vector corri\mathrm{corr}^icorri lists agent iii's own tasks at their actual times and every other task at the time declared by the agent it was given to.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

For n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 agents and every optimal allocation algorithm (ties broken arbitrarily), the Compensation-and-Bonus mechanism is a strongly truthful implementation of task scheduling:

strongly truthfulandg(x(D),t~)≤min⁡yg(y,t) whenever every agent plays a dominant strategy for its true type.\text{strongly truthful} \quad\text{and}\quad g\big(x(D), \tilde t\big) \le \min_y g(y, t) \text{ whenever every agent plays a dominant strategy for its true type.}strongly truthfulandg(x(D),t~)≤ymin​g(y,t) whenever every agent plays a dominant strategy for its true type.

Milestones (proof of Claim 5.2)

  1. The utility of every agent equals its bonus.
  2. For every allocation, the bonus of agent iii is maximized by executing its tasks in minimal time.
  3. With t=(d−i,ti)t = (d^{-i}, t^i)t=(d−i,ti), for every declaration t′it'^it′i,
−g(x(t),corr∗(x(t),t))≥−g(x(t′i,d−i),corr∗(x(t′i,d−i),t)).-g\big(x(t), \mathrm{corr}^*(x(t), t)\big) \ge -g\big(x(t'^i, d^{-i}), \mathrm{corr}^*(x(t'^i, d^{-i}), t)\big).−g(x(t),corr∗(x(t),t))≥−g(x(t′i,d−i),corr∗(x(t′i,d−i),t)).
  1. Declaring the true type and executing in minimal time is dominant.
  2. Claim 5.2: the mechanism is strongly truthful.

Further target: Theorem 5.4

For n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 there is a strongly truthful mechanism with an optimal allocation algorithm that satisfies participation constraints: an agent that performs its tasks in its declared times never ends with negative utility.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.1 shows that the lower bound of 2 for task scheduling (Theorem 4.6) is an artefact of the information structure, not of incentives as such: once execution times are observable, the exact optimum is achievable in dominant strategies, and the agents have a unique rational behaviour. The construction also isolates a general principle, used again in §5.6 of the paper: an agent paid by the global objective value, computed with the others' declarations, has the designer's incentives. Theorem 5.4 shows that the bonus can be shifted to make participation individually rational, which the plain mechanism violates (its bonus is negative).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, in a few lines, and has no machine-checked version. A formalization has to settle what the paper leaves informal: what a strategy with an execution part is, over which strategies of the others dominance is quantified, what "the only dominant strategy" demands of the execution plan on allocations that seem never to arise, and which hypotheses on the number of agents the uniqueness needs. The model built here is also the base of two companion missions of the same series (Compensation-and-Bonus with a non-optimal allocation algorithm, and the rounding mechanism with verification).

Difficulty

Truthfulness (milestones 1–4) is short once the model is right. The difficulty is uniqueness. For a misreport or a slow execution to be excluded, one must exhibit, for every alternative strategy, declarations of the other agents under which that strategy is strictly worse. The declarations must be positive, the optimal allocation algorithm breaks ties arbitrarily, and agent iii's slower execution only hurts it when agent iii is the bottleneck. The paper's proof dismisses this step with "clearly, … there are circumstances"; the naive reading ("the others declare +∞+\infty+∞ elsewhere") is not available in a model with finite positive times, and the uniqueness clause must also cover the execution plan on every allocation, not only on the allocation produced by truthful play.

Formalization scope

  • Agents are Fin n, tasks Fin k, allocations functions Fin k → Fin n; both make-spans are Finset.sup' over the nonempty set of agents ([NeZero n]).
  • Types and declarations are positive real vectors; declarations range over this type space (Definition 18's "unrestricted" declaration is any element of it).
  • An execution plan is a function from allocations to actual times; feasibility for type tit^iti requires t~j≥tji\tilde t_j \ge t^i_jt~j​≥tji​ on the agent's own tasks only. In the dominance quantifier the other agents' plans are arbitrary.
  • Payments are amounts handed to the agent; utility is quasi-linear.
  • The optimal allocation algorithm is a parameter with the hypothesis that it minimizes g(⋅,d)g(\cdot, d)g(⋅,d) on every positive ddd; every theorem holds for every such algorithm.
  • Strong truthfulness constrains both parts of the strategy: the declaration equals the type, and the plan executes every task in minimal time under every allocation.
  • Thresholds made explicit: n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 in Claim 5.2, Theorem 5.1 and Theorem 5.4 (not printed; with one agent every declaration is dominant, and the construction of Theorem 5.4 needs a second agent).
  • Printed slips: the displayed inequality prints >=; Theorem 5.4 prints "strongly truthfulmechanism"; Definition 28 writes t~j=tj\tilde t_j = t_jt~j​=tj​ for t~j=tji\tilde t_j = t^i_jt~j​=tji​.
  • Running time is out of scope.
  • A formalization in which dominance is checked only against truthful other agents, in which the mechanism ignores executions, in which strong truthfulness constrains only the declaration, or in which the implementation clause is stated only at the truthful profile, is not the theorem and is ruled out by the statements.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones, the uniqueness witnesses as reusable lemmas, and the contribution-based mechanism behind Theorem 5.4. Theorem 5.3 (generalized Compensation-and-Bonus) is not stated in this mission.

Selected references

  • N. Nisan, A. Ronen, Algorithmic Mechanism Design, Games and Economic Behavior 35 (2001) 166–196. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0790
  • T. Groves, Incentives in Teams, Econometrica 41 (1973) 617–631. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914085
  • A. Mas-Colell, M. D. Whinston, J. R. Green, Microeconomic Theory, Oxford University Press, 1995.
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