Asymptotic Optimality of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual-Sourcing Inventory Systems: Asymptotic Optimality of the Best TBS Policy for Long Lead TimesResearch Paper
Motivation
Firms that can buy the same item from two suppliers, a cheap slow one and a fast expensive one, face the dual-sourcing inventory problem: how much to order from each source in every period when demand is random and unmet demand is backlogged. Global sourcing (offshore regular supply plus a near-shore express supply) is the standard example (Allon and Van Mieghem 2010). When the two lead times differ by more than one period, the optimal policy depends on the whole pipeline of outstanding orders. No simple optimal policy is known, and dynamic programming is intractable for long lead times.
The tailored base-surge (TBS) policy orders a constant amount from the slow source and uses the fast source to bring the expedited inventory position up to a fixed level. It is simple, and it is used in practice. Janakiraman, Seshadri and Sheopuri (JSS, Management Science 2015) showed that its best parameters solve a convex program that does not depend on the regular lead time, and they conjectured, with numerical support, that TBS is near-optimal when that lead time is long.
Timeline:
- Karlin and Scarf (1958), Scarf (1960): structure of optimal single-source backlog policies with a lead time.
- Sheopuri, Janakiraman and Seshadri (2010): reduction of dual-sourcing policies to the truncated regular pipeline and the expedited inventory position (Lemma 1 here).
- Allon and Van Mieghem (2010): the TBS policy, with conjectures and numerical evidence.
- JSS (2015): the TBS cost formula and a convex program for its parameters.
- Xin and Goldberg (2018): proof of the conjecture with an explicit rate (Management Science 64(1), 2018). This mission formalizes that result.
Setting
Let be a nonnegative random variable with finite mean that is not almost surely constant. Demands are i.i.d. copies of . The regular source has lead time , the express source has lead time , and . In period the controller orders and ; then arrives and is realized, so the on-hand inventory evolves as and may be negative. Initially nothing is on order and , where the are further i.i.d. copies of and , .
The per-period cost is with , where and is the express premium (the regular unit cost is normalized to ). An admissible policy chooses the two orders in period as deterministic measurable functions of . Its long-run average cost is
With the expedited inventory position , the TBS policy orders and . A best TBS pair minimizes over and (first in through , then in ).
The constants and are explicit functionals of the law of and of . They are built from , , , the mean absolute deviation , and the large-deviation quantities of (p. 441).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 441)
For all , and ,
The threshold does not depend on , so the statement gives an explicit, inverse-polynomial rate. Its limit form is Corollary 1 of the paper.
Milestones
In the order the proof uses them:
- the bound ;
- Lemma 1, the reduction to (quoted from Sheopuri et al.);
- Eq. (3), the TBS cost formula (quoted from JSS);
- Theorem 2, the existence of a stationary-like vector with ;
- Corollary 2 and Lemma 2, the lower bound through a discounted single-source problem;
- Lemma 3, the Bellman equation and structure of that problem (quoted from JSS and Scarf 1960);
- Lemma 4 (8) and (9), and Corollary 3, the passage to the infinite horizon and to base-stock policies;
- Lemma 5, the random-walk maxima (proof omitted in the paper);
- Lemmas 8–9 and Corollary 4: once .
Significance
The theorem shows that one of the simplest dual-sourcing heuristics is asymptotically optimal as the regular lead time grows. This is the regime where exact dynamic programming is hopeless. The best TBS parameters come from a convex program independent of , so the result yields an algorithm whose running time does not grow with and whose optimality gap is bounded explicitly for every finite . It extends the lower-bounding technique of Xin and Goldberg's lost-sales work (Operations Research 2016) from a static to a dynamic relaxation.
Formalization adds the following. To the best of available knowledge, none of the objects involved (average-cost inventory control with backlog, TBS policies, Lindley-type maxima of random walks with their Spitzer identity) exists in Mathlib or on the platform. The paper's proof defers several ingredients to the literature or omits them: Lemma 1, Eq. (3), Lemma 3, and the details of Lemmas 5 and 7. A complete formal proof must supply them. The result is proved on paper but not formalized anywhere.
Difficulty
An optimal dual-sourcing policy need not be stationary, its induced Markov chain need not have a stationary distribution, and the inventory is unbounded below. The natural argument would compare the optimal policy's steady state with the TBS steady state, and it fails at its first step. Theorem 2 replaces the steady state by a vector with a few distributional properties, built from time averages. That construction, and the independence structure it must carry, is the central technical step. The conditional Jensen step then leads to a single-source problem with possibly negative demand, where textbook interchange-of-limits theorems do not apply directly. Finally, bounding away from requires a quantitative lower bound on the growth of random-walk maxima under only a first-moment assumption.
Formalization scope
Conventions of the Lean development (namespace XinGoldbergTBS.Asymptotic):
- The law of is a probability measure on with no mass on , finite mean, and no atom of mass . The paper's "strictly positive (possibly infinite) variance" is read as "not almost surely constant".
- , , , , and are natural numbers. The paper's standing assumption is a hypothesis wherever the paper states it; in Theorem 1 it follows from the threshold.
- Costs, expectations, , , and take values in , so infinite costs are never truncated. The ratio in Theorem 1 is stated as , which is equivalent because .
- is exactly the paper's class: deterministic, time-dependent, measurable, nonnegative orders that depend on the pipeline and inventory. It is neither restricted to stationary policies nor enlarged to randomized ones. TBS policies are members, so by construction.
- is the supremum of the minimizers of on , and it is if the infimum is not attained; .
- The existence of a best TBS pair is asserted in the paper via JSS. The goal therefore also asserts that some TBS policy with meets the bound, so it cannot hold vacuously when no minimizer exists.
- belongs to a witness of Theorem 2, and the results that use it hold for every witness.
- The single-source class ("feasible nonanticipative policies, as typically defined") is read as nonnegative orders that are measurable functions of past demands. In Lemma 3 "increasing" is read as nondecreasing, and convexity in includes finiteness.
- The paper states Eq. (3) without a range for ; it is stated here for , the TBS parameters over which the paper optimizes. At both sides are . In Lemma 8, the range's upper end is when .
- Differences such as and are stated additively, and the negative terms of (9) and Corollary 3 are moved to the other side.
Lemma 1, Eq. (3) and Lemma 3 are results the paper quotes from Sheopuri et al. (2010), JSS and Scarf (1960). Proposition 1 (conditional-expectation form of the bound) is not included.
A trivializing formalization is ruled out: ranges over the full admissible class, the constants are definitions rather than hypotheses, and the goal includes an existence clause.
Reusable beyond this mission: average-cost inventory models with lead times, discounted single-source backlog value functions, and Spitzer-type identities for random-walk maxima. Contributions to any milestone are welcome.
Selected references
- L. Xin and D. A. Goldberg, Asymptotic Optimality of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual-Sourcing Inventory Systems, Management Science 64(1):437–452, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2607
- G. Janakiraman, S. Seshadri and A. Sheopuri, Analysis of Tailored Base-Surge Policies in Dual Sourcing Inventory Systems, Management Science 61(7):1547–1561, 2015.
- G. Allon and J. A. Van Mieghem, Global Dual Sourcing: Tailored Base-Surge Allocation to Near- and Offshore Production, Management Science 56(1):110–124, 2010.
- A. Sheopuri, G. Janakiraman and S. Seshadri, New Policies for the Stochastic Inventory Control Problem with Two Supply Sources, Operations Research 58(3):734–745, 2010.
- H. Scarf, The Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960, pp. 196–202.
- L. Xin and D. A. Goldberg, Optimality Gap of Constant-Order Policies Decays Exponentially in the Lead Time for Lost Sales Models, Operations Research 64(6):1556–1565, 2016.