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Operations Research

2,338 missions · 1,112 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 3: A Coalition Technology Satisfying Gross Substitutes for m + 1 Identical Firms Has a Strict Core AllocationResearch Paper

Why a one-sided market can have a core

Workers can form groups and produce an output that they divide through salaries. A group may object to a proposed allocation when it can pay all of its members at least as much and one member more. The central question is whether any allocation survives every such objection. Kelso and Crawford's 1982 paper gives a sufficient condition based on how an imaginary firm would demand workers as their salaries change. This is useful when production depends on combinations of workers, yet there is no actual employer side to the market.

The one-sided result belongs to a seven-mission series: 1, the salary-adjustment process; 2, continuous-salary core existence; 3, this one-sided theorem; 4, firm-optimality; 5, comparative statics; 6, returns to workers; and 7, the no-core example. Each mission can be read independently. None of Kelso and Crawford's results was on Prove2Me before this series. The paper itself notes that Theorem 3 is similar in spirit to Shapley's core-existence result but logically independent: Shapley's convex-game condition concerns second differences of a characteristic function, whereas this theorem uses a condition on input demand. Kelso and Crawford, footnote 3.

The market and its allocations

Let WWW be a finite set of workers, with m=∣W∣m=|W|m=∣W∣. A coalition technology vvv assigns a real output v(C)v(C)v(C) to each worker set C⊆WC\subseteq WC⊆W. A one-sided allocation consists of a partition P=(Cz)P=(C_z)P=(Cz​) of all workers and one real salary sis_isi​ for each worker. The parts of PPP are disjoint and cover WWW. Each worker has a utility μi(si)\mu^i(s_i)μi(si​) that is continuous and strictly increasing in salary, so salary comparisons express the same preferences as utility comparisons.

The paper's individual rationality condition D1′ asks for nonnegative salaries and one aggregate resource constraint:

si≥0(i∈W),∑i∈Wsi≤∑C∈Pv(C).s_i\ge 0\quad(i\in W),\qquad \sum_{i\in W}s_i\le\sum_{C\in P}v(C).si​≥0(i∈W),i∈W∑​si​≤C∈P∑​v(C).

It does not require each partition block to finance its own salaries. An improving coalition is a worker set CCC with salaries ri≥sir_i\ge s_iri​≥si​ for every i∈Ci\in Ci∈C, a strict inequality for at least one member, and ∑i∈Cri≤v(C)\sum_{i\in C}r_i\le v(C)∑i∈C​ri​≤v(C). A D1′ allocation is in the strict core D2′ when no improving coalition exists. The empty coalition cannot improve because it contains no member whose salary could rise. These are equations (12)–(15) on pages 1492–1493 of the source paper.

To state gross substitutes (GS), imagine m+1m+1m+1 identical firms, each with production vvv. At a salary vector s:W→Rs:W\to\mathbb Rs:W→R, a firm's profit from employing CCC is π(C;s)=v(C)−∑i∈Csi\pi(C;s)=v(C)-\sum_{i\in C}s_iπ(C;s)=v(C)−∑i∈C​si​; a demanded set maximizes this profit over all worker subsets. GS says that if salaries rise coordinatewise from sss to s′s's′, then for every demanded set at sss there is a demanded set at s′s's′ containing all workers of the old set whose salaries stayed unchanged. The requirement is over all real salary vectors, as in the continuous market of Section 2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Assume nonnegative marginal production (MP′), no free lunch (NFL), and GS for the identical fictitious firms:

v(C∪{i})−v(C)≥0,v(∅)=0,GS⁡(v).v(C\cup\{i\})-v(C)\ge 0,\qquad v(\varnothing)=0,\qquad \operatorname{GS}(v).v(C∪{i})−v(C)≥0,v(∅)=0,GS(v).

The goal is the exact existence statement

∃(P,s),(P,s) is a one-sided strict-core allocation for v.\exists (P,s),\quad (P,s)\text{ is a one-sided strict-core allocation for }v.∃(P,s),(P,s) is a one-sided strict-core allocation for v.

Theorem 3 appears on page 1493 of Kelso and Crawford. Its two milestones are claims from the proof: every dummy firm has zero profit at a fictitious-market strict-core allocation, and that allocation induces a one-sided strict-core allocation. Mission 2 targets the paper's Theorem 2, which supplies existence of the fictitious-market allocation; this mission does not pose a duplicate specialized version of it.

What the result gives

The theorem ensures that workers can be partitioned and paid without any group being able to make at least one of its members strictly better off while preserving every member's prior salary. It turns a condition on a firm's reactions to wage increases into stability of a market containing no firms. The result also identifies a concrete boundary for the core-existence argument: the paper later constructs a market without GS that has no core allocation in its two-sided setting. Kelso and Crawford, Section 6.

The theorem is proved in the 1982 paper; this mission asks for machine-checked statements and proofs of its one-sided definitions, the two transfer claims, and Theorem 3. The local Lean files compile as open statements, and a concrete one-worker instance checks that MP′, NFL and GS can hold together. That local check is not a proof of Theorem 3. The definition of GS for a finite demand problem can be reused beyond this mission, but the dummy-firm construction and the one-sided D1′–D2′ predicates follow this paper's conventions.

Why the transfer is delicate

A strict-core allocation of a two-sided market controls coalitions containing a firm, while D2′ is expressed entirely through worker coalitions. The fictitious market has more firms than workers, which forces at least one firm to employ nobody. The proof must connect that observation to every firm's profit and then translate a one-sided improving coalition into a two-sided improvement. Individual rationality also has to preserve the paper's aggregate budget condition. Merely assigning each worker to a firm or showing nonnegative firm profits would leave these links unproved.

Formalization scope

Workers form an arbitrary finite type; the empty case is included. The fictitious firms have type Fin (m + 1), so their count is strictly greater than the worker count even when m=0m=0m=0. Salaries and output are real. In the fictitious market, every firm uses the same vvv, each worker's utility at every firm is μi(s)\mu^i(s)μi(s), and reservation salary is zero, matching unemployment utility μi(0)\mu^i(0)μi(0). The milestones retain arbitrary strictly increasing continuous functions μi\mu^iμi; Theorem 3 does not quantify over them because D1′ and D2′ compare salaries directly. Theorem 3's GS condition ranges over all real salary vectors, not a discrete salary grid.

Mathlib finite partitions contain nonempty parts. The paper permits empty indexed groups, but NFL makes them contribute zero output. The allocation model assigns every worker to one firm, and strict blocking allows any worker coalition, including the empty set, although strict improvement excludes that case. D1′ uses one total salary bound; a per-group bound would change the theorem. D2′ requires a strict gain in a worker's salary, not merely slack in the production budget. No vacuous regularity condition, fixed special technology, or restriction to a single worker is part of the mission goal.

Contributions are welcome on the finite partition interface, properties of profit-maximizing demand under GS, the zero-profit claim, and the transfer from fictitious firms to worker coalitions. The shared market and demand definitions are kept in their own module so they can be consolidated with the other missions of this paper.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6), 1982, pp. 1483–1504. DOI: 10.2307/1913392.
  • L. S. Shapley, Cores of convex games, International Journal of Game Theory 1, 1971, pp. 11–26. DOI: 10.1007/BF01753431.
6 thms2 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 4: Without Ties the Salary-Adjustment Process Reaches the Firm-Optimal Discrete Strict Core AllocationResearch Paper

Motivation

Labor markets match heterogeneous workers to heterogeneous firms, and the terms of each match — the salary — are negotiated. Kelso and Crawford (Econometrica 50 (1982)) studied such a market in which a firm may hire many workers, its output depends on the whole set it hires, and salaries are set worker by worker. Their model contains the marriage problem of Gale and Shapley (1962) and the assignment game of Shapley and Shubik (1971) as special cases, and its gross substitutes condition later became the central hypothesis of the theory of matching with contracts and of ascending auctions for indivisible goods (Hatfield and Milgrom, AER 2005; Gul and Stacchetti, JET 1999).

Markets of this kind usually have many stable outcomes, so which one arises depends on how the market is organized. Gale and Shapley showed that their deferred-acceptance procedure picks the stable matching that is best for the proposing side. Crawford and Knoer (Econometrica 1981) proved the analogue for one-to-one matching with money. Theorem 4 of Kelso and Crawford extends it to firms that hire many workers, under gross substitutes: the paper's salary-adjustment process, in which firms make offers, ends at the end of the strict core that favors the firms.

Setting

There are finitely many workers i∈Wi \in Wi∈W and firms j∈Fj \in Fj∈F. Worker iii values working for firm jjj at salary sss by ui(j;s)u^i(j; s)ui(j;s), strictly increasing and continuous in sss. Firm jjj produces yj(C)y^j(C)yj(C) when it hires the set CCC of workers and earns the profit πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−∑i∈Csij\pi^j(C; s^j) = y^j(C) - \sum_{i\in C} s_{ij}πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−∑i∈C​sij​ at the salary vector sjs^jsj. The number σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ is the starting permitted salary for iii at jjj; Section 2 initially defines it as a reservation salary, and Section 5 permits it to be perturbed. The paper's standing assumptions are (MP), yj(C∪{i})−yj(C)−σij≥0y^j(C\cup\{i\}) - y^j(C) - \sigma_{ij} \ge 0yj(C∪{i})−yj(C)−σij​≥0 for i∉Ci \notin Ci∈/C; (NFL), yj(∅)=0y^j(\varnothing) = 0yj(∅)=0; and (GS): if CCC maximizes firm jjj's profit at sjs^jsj and salaries rise weakly to s~j\tilde s^js~j, some profit-maximizing set at s~j\tilde s^js~j still contains every worker of CCC whose salary did not change.

In a discrete market with unit δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, firm jjj may offer worker iii only the salaries σij+kδ\sigma_{ij} + k\deltaσij​+kδ, k∈Nk \in \mathbb{N}k∈N. An allocation assigns every worker iii to a firm f(i)f(i)f(i) at a salary; CjC^jCj is the set hired by jjj. It is individually rational if every worker gets at least σif(i)\sigma_{if(i)}σif(i)​ and every firm a nonnegative profit. A firm and a set of workers at permitted salaries improve upon it if all of them are weakly better off and one of them strictly; they strictly improve upon it if all are strictly better off. Discrete strict core allocations (D2) admit no improving coalition, discrete core allocations (D3) no strictly improving one.

The salary-adjustment process (R1–R5) starts with permitted salaries sij(0)=σijs_{ij}(0) = \sigma_{ij}sij​(0)=σij​ and offers from every firm to every worker. In each round, each firm offers jobs to a profit-maximizing set at its current permitted salaries, repeating unrejected offers; each worker holds a favorite offer and rejects the others; a rejected firm's permitted salary for that worker rises by δ\deltaδ. The process stops in a round with no rejections. A worker is (strictly) sss-possible for firm jjj if some discrete (strict) core allocation assigns him or her to jjj at salary sss. The no-ties conditions are (NTW): a worker who is sijs_{ij}sij​-possible for jjj is never indifferent between (j,sij)(j, s_{ij})(j,sij​) and any permitted salary at another firm; and (NTF): a firm is never indifferent between its profit in a discrete core allocation and the profit from another nonempty set of workers at permitted salaries.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 1495)

Under regularity, (MP), (NFL), (GS) on the permitted salary vectors, (NTW) and (NTF): every run of the process stops at some round, and at every stopping round TTT the resulting allocation ϕ\phiϕ is a discrete strict core allocation with

πj(CA′j;s′j)≤πj(Cϕj;sj(T))for every firm j and every discrete strict core allocation A′.\pi^j(C^j_{A'}; s'^j) \le \pi^j(C^j_\phi; s^j(T)) \qquad \text{for every firm } j \text{ and every discrete strict core allocation } A'.πj(CA′j​;s′j)≤πj(Cϕj​;sj(T))for every firm j and every discrete strict core allocation A′.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 4, p. 1495)

  1. Every equilibrium of the process is a discrete strict core allocation.
  2. No worker ever rejects a firm at a salary sss at which he or she is strictly sss-possible for it.
  3. For every strict core allocation (f;s′)(f; s')(f;s′), every round ttt and every worker iii: sif(i)(t)≤sif(i)′s_{if(i)}(t) \le s'_{if(i)}sif(i)​(t)≤sif(i)′​.

Significance

Theorem 4 says that the outcome of a decentralized ascending process, in which firms make the offers, is not an arbitrary stable outcome but the one best for every firm simultaneously. This existence of a firm-optimal point of the strict core is itself a consequence. Its Corollary (uniqueness of the equilibrium, mission 5 of this series) and Theorem 5 (an entering firm helps every worker, a departing worker hurts every firm, also mission 5) are both proved from it.

The result has been proved on paper since 1982, and nothing of this paper was on Prove2Me before this series. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the paper's model, of the salary-adjustment process for every tie-breaking rule, and of the firm-optimality argument. The no-money analogue, Gale and Shapley's optimality theorem for college admissions, has a proved formalization on the platform (GS62CollegeAdmissions.PaperInterface.theorem2_applicant_optimality); it does not involve salaries and is credited, not reused.

The series has seven missions: 1 (Theorem 1, convergence to a discrete core allocation), 2 (Theorem 2, the continuous strict core), 3 (Theorem 3, one-sided markets), 4 (this mission), 5 (comparative statics, Theorem 5), 6 (Theorem 6, gross substitutes and returns to workers), 7 (the no-core example of Section 6). This mission does not depend on the others: it states its own copy of the model.

Difficulty

The process is defined for every tie-breaking rule of firms and workers, so the claim concerns an entire family of executions, each indexed by rounds and carrying offers, tentative acceptances and salaries. The firm-optimality statement compares the process outcome with every strict core allocation, objects defined by a nonexistence condition over all coalitions and permitted salaries. The step that does not follow from Theorem 1 alone is that rejections never occur at a strictly possible salary. That claim is about the entire history of a run, not about its final round, and it ties a property of the core to every intermediate rejection. Without the no-ties hypotheses the paper guarantees only that the process stops at a discrete core allocation (D3, Theorem 1).

Formalization scope

Workers and firms are arbitrary finite types, with at least one firm; salaries are real numbers; larger utility is better. A discrete market is given by the unit δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, and the permitted salaries are σij+δN\sigma_{ij} + \delta\mathbb{N}σij​+δN (the paper's unit is 1; Theorem 2 lets it shrink, so it is kept general). The starting salaries σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ are data; the relation ui(j;σij)=ui(0;0)u^i(j;\sigma_{ij}) = u^i(0;0)ui(j;σij​)=ui(0;0) is not assumed, because Section 5 perturbs σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ independently of ui(0;0)u^i(0;0)ui(0;0) to obtain (NTW), and under that relation (NTW) typically fails in round 0. Allocations assign every worker to a firm. (GS) is imposed on the permitted salary vectors of the discrete market only.

Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "converges to" means: every run stops at some round, and every stopping round yields the stated allocation;
  • "any other strict core allocation" means any discrete strict core allocation of the same discrete market;
  • "at least as good for every firm" is a weak profit inequality at every firm;
  • (NTW) and (NTF) are about discrete core allocations (D3), as printed, and "any other non-empty set of workers" in (NTF) is read as a nonempty set different from CjC^jCj;
  • a run of R1–R5 is any sequence of salaries, offers and tentative acceptances obeying the rules, with all ties broken arbitrarily; the statements cover every run.

Statements that quantify over runs would be empty if no run existed, and (NTW), (NTF) are hypotheses about the core that could in principle be contradictory; a sorry-free local check confirms all hypotheses on a market with one firm and one worker and exhibits a run that stops at a strict core allocation, so the goal is not vacuous. Trivializing readings — comparing with continuous strict core allocations, imposing (NTW)/(NTF) only on strict core allocations, or comparing a single firm — are excluded by the statement.

Infrastructure needed: the model, the run encoding, and lemmas about runs (salaries are monotone and stay on the grid, every worker always holds an offer, every run stops — Theorem 1). These are reusable for missions 1 and 5. Contributions to any milestone, and alternative proofs, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6), 1982, 1483–1504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913392
  • V. P. Crawford and E. M. Knoer, Job matching with heterogeneous firms and workers, Econometrica 49(2), 1981, 437–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912758
  • D. Gale and L. S. Shapley, College admissions and the stability of marriage, American Mathematical Monthly 69(1), 1962, 9–15. https://doi.org/10.2307/2312726
  • L. S. Shapley and M. Shubik, The assignment game I: The core, International Journal of Game Theory 1, 1971, 111–130. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753437
  • J. W. Hatfield and P. R. Milgrom, Matching with contracts, American Economic Review 95(4), 2005, 913–935. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825466
  • F. Gul and E. Stacchetti, Walrasian equilibrium with gross substitutes, Journal of Economic Theory 87(1), 1999, 95–124. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1999.2531
8 thms2 active usersReviewed
Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Primal-Dual Interior-Point Methods for Self-Scaled Cones I: After One Short Step from N(β), λ₂(x₊, s₊) ≤ (2 + δ − κ)(ϵ + κ)²/((1 − δ)²(1 − κ)³)Research Paper

Motivation

Linear programming, second-order cone programming and semidefinite programming are all instances of conic linear programming: minimize a linear function over the intersection of an affine subspace with a closed convex cone. Primal-dual interior-point methods solve these problems in polynomially many iterations and are the algorithms behind most conic solvers in practical use. Nesterov and Todd showed that the primal-dual path-following analysis known for linear programming extends verbatim to every cone that admits a self-scaled barrier, a class containing the nonnegative orthant, the second-order cone, the cone of positive semidefinite matrices, and their products (Nesterov & Todd 1997; Nesterov & Todd 1998).

Timeline. Kojima, Mizuno and Yoshise (1989) and Monteiro and Adler (1989) gave short-step primal-dual path-following methods for linear programming with an O(nln⁡(1/ε))O(\sqrt n \ln(1/\varepsilon))O(n​ln(1/ε)) iteration bound. Mizuno, Todd and Ye (1993) added the predictor-corrector variant. Nesterov and Nemirovskii (1994) developed the general theory of self-concordant barriers. Nesterov and Todd (1997) introduced self-scaled barriers and scaling points; the 1998 paper analysed the short-step, adaptive-step and predictor-corrector methods for them. Güler (1996) identified self-scaled cones with symmetric (homogeneous self-dual) cones.

Setting

Let E=RnE = \mathbb R^nE=Rn with inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩, and let K⊆EK \subseteq EK⊆E be a closed convex cone that is pointed and has nonempty interior; K∗={s:⟨s,x⟩≥0 ∀x∈K}K^* = \{s : \langle s, x\rangle \ge 0\ \forall x \in K\}K∗={s:⟨s,x⟩≥0 ∀x∈K} is its dual cone. A linear map A:Rn→RmA : \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^mA:Rn→Rm (surjective), b∈Rmb \in \mathbb R^mb∈Rm and c∈Rnc \in \mathbb R^nc∈Rn define the primal problem min⁡{⟨c,x⟩:Ax=b, x∈K}\min\{\langle c, x\rangle : Ax = b,\ x \in K\}min{⟨c,x⟩:Ax=b, x∈K} and its dual max⁡{⟨b,y⟩:A∗y+s=c, s∈K∗}\max\{\langle b, y\rangle : A^*y + s = c,\ s \in K^*\}max{⟨b,y⟩:A∗y+s=c, s∈K∗}. Strictly feasible points are x∈S0(P)x \in S^0(P)x∈S0(P) (x∈int⁡Kx \in \operatorname{int} Kx∈intK, Ax=bAx = bAx=b) and (y,s)∈S0(D)(y, s) \in S^0(D)(y,s)∈S0(D) (s∈int⁡K∗s \in \operatorname{int}K^*s∈intK∗, A∗y+s=cA^*y + s = cA∗y+s=c).

A ν\nuν-self-concordant logarithmically homogeneous barrier FFF for KKK is a self-concordant convex function on int⁡K\operatorname{int} KintK that tends to +∞+\infty+∞ at the boundary, satisfies (⟨F′(x),h⟩)2≤ν⟨F′′(x)h,h⟩(\langle F'(x), h\rangle)^2 \le \nu\langle F''(x)h, h\rangle(⟨F′(x),h⟩)2≤ν⟨F′′(x)h,h⟩ and F(τx)=F(x)−νln⁡τF(\tau x) = F(x) - \nu\ln\tauF(τx)=F(x)−νlnτ. Its conjugate is F∗(s)=sup⁡x∈int⁡K{−⟨s,x⟩−F(x)}F_*(s) = \sup_{x \in \operatorname{int}K}\{-\langle s, x\rangle - F(x)\}F∗​(s)=supx∈intK​{−⟨s,x⟩−F(x)}. The barrier is self-scaled if F′′(w)x∈int⁡K∗F''(w)x \in \operatorname{int}K^*F′′(w)x∈intK∗ and F∗(F′′(w)x)=F(x)−2F(w)−νF_*(F''(w)x) = F(x) - 2F(w) - \nuF∗​(F′′(w)x)=F(x)−2F(w)−ν for all w,x∈int⁡Kw, x \in \operatorname{int}Kw,x∈intK. For x∈int⁡Kx \in \operatorname{int}Kx∈intK and s∈int⁡K∗s \in \operatorname{int}K^*s∈intK∗ the scaling point is the w∈int⁡Kw \in \operatorname{int}Kw∈intK with F′′(w)x=sF''(w)x = sF′′(w)x=s.

Local norms at x∈int⁡Kx \in \operatorname{int}Kx∈intK are ∥v∥x=⟨F′′(x)v,v⟩1/2\|v\|_x = \langle F''(x)v, v\rangle^{1/2}∥v∥x​=⟨F′′(x)v,v⟩1/2 for primal vectors and ∥u∥x=⟨[F′′(x)]−1u,u⟩1/2\|u\|_x = \langle [F''(x)]^{-1}u, u\rangle^{1/2}∥u∥x​=⟨[F′′(x)]−1u,u⟩1/2 for dual vectors; ∣u∣x|u|_x∣u∣x​ is the cone-induced (max-type) norm. With μ(x,s)=⟨s,x⟩/ν\mu(x, s) = \langle s, x\rangle/\nuμ(x,s)=⟨s,x⟩/ν the proximity measures are

λ2(x,s)=∥sμ(x,s)+F′(x)∥x,λ∞(x,s)=∣sμ(x,s)+F′(x)∣x,\lambda_2(x, s) = \Big\|\frac{s}{\mu(x,s)} + F'(x)\Big\|_x,\qquad \lambda_\infty(x, s) = \Big|\frac{s}{\mu(x,s)} + F'(x)\Big|_x,λ2​(x,s)=​μ(x,s)s​+F′(x)​x​,λ∞​(x,s)=​μ(x,s)s​+F′(x)​x​,

and λˉ2(x,s,μ)=∥s/μ+F′(x)∥x\bar\lambda_2(x, s, \mu) = \|s/\mu + F'(x)\|_xλˉ2​(x,s,μ)=∥s/μ+F′(x)∥x​. The narrow neighbourhood is N(β)={(x,y,s)∈S0(P)×S0(D):λ2(x,s)≤β}N(\beta) = \{(x,y,s) \in S^0(P)\times S^0(D) : \lambda_2(x, s) \le \beta\}N(β)={(x,y,s)∈S0(P)×S0(D):λ2​(x,s)≤β}.

The short step from (x,y,s)∈N(β)(x, y, s) \in N(\beta)(x,y,s)∈N(β) targets μ+=(1−κ/ν)μ(x,s)\mu_+ = (1 - \kappa/\sqrt\nu)\mu(x,s)μ+​=(1−κ/ν​)μ(x,s) and solves

F′′(w)qx+qs=s+μ+F′(x),Aqx=0,A∗qy+qs=0,F''(w)q_x + q_s = s + \mu_+F'(x),\qquad Aq_x = 0,\qquad A^*q_y + q_s = 0,F′′(w)qx​+qs​=s+μ+​F′(x),Aqx​=0,A∗qy​+qs​=0,

then sets (x+,y+,s+)=(x−qx,y−qy,s−qs)(x_+, y_+, s_+) = (x - q_x, y - q_y, s - q_s)(x+​,y+​,s+​)=(x−qx​,y−qy​,s−qs​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.4

With δ=λ∞(x,s)\delta = \lambda_\infty(x,s)δ=λ∞​(x,s), ϵ=λ2(x,s)\epsilon = \lambda_2(x,s)ϵ=λ2​(x,s), ϵ+=λˉ2(x,s,μ+)\epsilon_+ = \bar\lambda_2(x, s, \mu_+)ϵ+​=λˉ2​(x,s,μ+​) and η=ϵ+/(1−δ)<1\eta = \epsilon_+/(1-\delta) < 1η=ϵ+​/(1−δ)<1:

x+∈int⁡K,s+∈int⁡K∗,μ(x+,s+)=μ+,λ2(x+,s+)=λˉ2(x+,s+,μ+)≤(2+δ−κ)(ϵ+κ)2(1−δ)2(1−κ)3.x_+ \in \operatorname{int}K,\quad s_+ \in \operatorname{int}K^*,\quad \mu(x_+, s_+) = \mu_+,\quad \lambda_2(x_+, s_+) = \bar\lambda_2(x_+, s_+, \mu_+) \le \frac{(2 + \delta - \kappa)(\epsilon + \kappa)^2}{(1-\delta)^2(1-\kappa)^3}.x+​∈intK,s+​∈intK∗,μ(x+​,s+​)=μ+​,λ2​(x+​,s+​)=λˉ2​(x+​,s+​,μ+​)≤(1−δ)2(1−κ)3(2+δ−κ)(ϵ+κ)2​.

The constant κ∈(0,1)\kappa \in (0,1)κ∈(0,1) and β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1) are free; no numerical choice is hard-coded.

Milestones

Theorem 3.6 (norms at neighbouring points), Lemma 3.13 and Corollary 3.14 (scaling-point Hessian versus the Hessians at xxx and sss), Lemma 6.2 (effect of decreasing μ\muμ), (6.10) (the gap after the step), and Lemma 6.3 (size of the step, feasibility, norms at x+x_+x+​).

Companion results

The Algorithm 6.1 invariant (β=1/10\beta = 1/10β=1/10, κ=1/15\kappa = 1/15κ=1/15: iterates stay in N(1/10)N(1/10)N(1/10) while μ\muμ shrinks by 1−(15ν)−11 - (15\sqrt\nu)^{-1}1−(15ν​)−1), Theorem 6.5 (the predictor step length α∗≥(10ν)−1\alpha^* \ge (10\sqrt\nu)^{-1}α∗≥(10ν​)−1), and Lemma 6.1.

Significance

Theorem 6.4 is the one-step estimate behind the O(νln⁡(⟨s0,x0⟩/ζ))O(\sqrt\nu\ln(\langle s_0, x_0\rangle/\zeta))O(ν​ln(⟨s0​,x0​⟩/ζ)) iteration bound of the short-step method on every symmetric cone, and with it of the most widely used complexity bounds for semidefinite and second-order cone programming. The same estimate, with κ=0\kappa = 0κ=0, certifies the corrector step of the predictor-corrector method (Algorithm 6.3).

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized. A Lean development would provide a machine-checked core of conic interior-point theory: the local-norm calculus of self-scaled barriers (Theorem 3.6, Lemma 3.13), which is reused across all the methods of the paper, and a verified complexity statement for an algorithm family used in practice. The companion mission on the functional-proximity method (Theorem 7.1 of the same paper) shares the setting.

Difficulty

The obvious argument expands s++μ+F′(x+)s_+ + \mu_+F'(x_+)s+​+μ+​F′(x+​) and bounds each term by self-concordance. Generic self-concordance controls norms at a new point only under ∥x+−x∥x<1\|x_+ - x\|_x < 1∥x+​−x∥x​<1 and gives constants that do not close the recursion with β=1/10\beta = 1/10β=1/10; it also says nothing about the dual side. The proof needs properties special to self-scaled barriers: the scaling point www and the two-sided comparison of F′′(w)/μF''(w)/\muF′′(w)/μ with F′′(x)F''(x)F′′(x) (Lemma 3.13), norm comparisons under the weaker hypothesis ∣x+−x∣x<1|x_+ - x|_x < 1∣x+​−x∣x​<1 (Theorem 3.6), and a third-derivative bound from Nesterov–Todd 1997. In Lean, none of the self-scaled barrier theory, conjugate barriers on cones, or local norms exists in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

EEE is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and E∗E^*E∗ is identified with EEE through the inner product. Because the paper distinguishes primal and dual norms by the space of the argument, the formalization names them: lnorm G v u (same space as vvv) and dnorm G v u (other space, through the inverse Hessian), for G=FG = FG=F or G=F∗G = F_*G=F∗​; sigma C c u and absn C c u take the cone and the centre explicitly. The conjugate is a real supremum over int⁡K\operatorname{int}KintK and is only evaluated in int⁡K∗\operatorname{int}K^*intK∗. λ2\lambda_2λ2​, λ∞\lambda_\inftyλ∞​ use the first of their two printed forms.

Standing assumptions carried by every statement: KKK proper, FFF a ν\nuν-self-scaled barrier, and ν≥1\nu \ge 1ν≥1 (a consequence of pointedness that the paper derives). The barrier definition adds positive definiteness of F′′F''F′′ on int⁡K\operatorname{int}KintK, implied by the other conditions for a pointed cone. Theorem 6.4 adds 0<κ<10 < \kappa < 10<κ<1 (the paper's "some fixed constant", forced by its proof) and the conclusion x+∈int⁡Kx_+ \in \operatorname{int}Kx+​∈intK, s+∈int⁡K∗s_+ \in \operatorname{int}K^*s+​∈intK∗ from Lemma 6.3. Assumptions (2.4)–(2.5) are implied by the strictly feasible starting point. In Theorem 3.6 the middle factors of (3.12) are corrected to (1−p+)(1 - p_+)(1−p+​) and (1+p−)(1 + p_-)(1+p−​); the printed ones fail for the half-line.

Search directions are any solution of their linear systems; their existence is not assumed. The goal assumes no bound from Lemmas 6.2–6.3 and no value of μ(x+,s+)\mu(x_+, s_+)μ(x+​,s+​), so it cannot be discharged by restating its hypotheses.

Needed infrastructure: derivatives of logarithmically homogeneous functions ((2.7)–(2.10)), properties of the conjugate barrier ((2.12)–(2.16)), the existence and properties of scaling points (Nesterov–Todd 1997), and the local norm inequalities of self-concordant functions. These are reusable for any interior-point formalization; contributions of such lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. E. Nesterov and M. J. Todd, Primal-dual interior-point methods for self-scaled cones, SIAM J. Optim. 8 (1998) 324–364. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623495290209
  • Yu. E. Nesterov and M. J. Todd, Self-scaled barriers and interior-point methods for convex programming, Math. Oper. Res. 22 (1997) 1–42. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.22.1.1
  • Yu. Nesterov and A. Nemirovskii, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970791
  • O. Güler, Barrier functions in interior point methods, Math. Oper. Res. 21 (1996) 860–885. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.21.4.860
  • M. Kojima, S. Mizuno and A. Yoshise, A primal-dual interior point algorithm for linear programming, in Progress in Mathematical Programming, Springer, 1989, 29–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-9617-8_2
  • S. Mizuno, M. J. Todd and Y. Ye, On adaptive-step primal-dual interior-point algorithms for linear programming, Math. Oper. Res. 18 (1993) 964–981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.964
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CombinatoricsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Application of the Branch and Bound Technique to Some Flow-Shop Scheduling Problems 2: Branch and Bound with the Two-Machine Lower Bound Finds a Sequence of Least Mean Completion TimeResearch Paper

Motivation

In a two-machine flow shop, each of nnn jobs is processed first on machine AAA and then on machine BBB, and the order of the jobs is to be chosen. For the makespan (the finishing time of the last job), Johnson (1954) gave an exact sorting rule. For the sum (equivalently, the mean) of the completion times, no such rule is known: the problem is NP-hard in the strong sense (Garey, Johnson and Sethi, 1976), and exact methods search the n!n!n! sequences implicitly.

Ignall and Schrage (1965) were among the first to apply branch and bound to sequencing. They view the n!n!n! sequences as the leaves of a tree of partial sequences, keep a list of partial sequences ranked by a lower bound, and always extend the most promising one. For the two-machine mean-completion-time problem they introduced a lower bound, built from two relaxations (one where machine AAA is the bottleneck, one where machine BBB is), that became the template for many later flow-shop bounds.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 jobs; job iii has processing time aia_iai​ on machine AAA and bib_ibi​ on machine BBB. A sequence is a permutation σ\sigmaσ of the jobs, processed in that order on both machines with every operation started as early as possible. The completion time di(σ)d_i(\sigma)di​(σ) of job iii is the time machine BBB finishes it, and the objective is ∑i=1ndi(σ)\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma)∑i=1n​di​(σ).

A node JrJ_rJr​ is a partial sequence of rrr jobs; Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is the set of the n−rn-rn−r jobs not in it; kkk is the last job of JrJ_rJr​ and dkd_kdk​ its completion time; did_idi​ (i∈Jri\in J_ri∈Jr​) are the completion times of the jobs of JrJ_rJr​. For an ordering (i1,…,in−r)(i_1,\dots,i_{n-r})(i1​,…,in−r​) of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​,

Tr=∑p=1n−r[∑j∈Jraj+(n−r−p+1)aip+bip],T_r=\sum_{p=1}^{n-r}\Big[\sum_{j\in J_r}a_j+(n-r-p+1)a_{i_p}+b_{i_p}\Big],Tr​=p=1∑n−r​[j∈Jr​∑​aj​+(n−r−p+1)aip​​+bip​​],

and for an ordering (j1,…,jn−r)(j_1,\dots,j_{n-r})(j1​,…,jn−r​) of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​,

Sr=∑p=1n−r[max⁡(dk,∑j∈Jraj+min⁡i∈Jˉrai)+(n−r−p+1)bjp].S_r=\sum_{p=1}^{n-r}\Big[\max\Big(d_k,\sum_{j\in J_r}a_j+\min_{i\in\bar J_r}a_i\Big)+(n-r-p+1)b_{j_p}\Big].Sr​=p=1∑n−r​[max(dk​,j∈Jr​∑​aj​+i∈Jˉr​min​ai​)+(n−r−p+1)bjp​​].

T^r\hat T_rT^r​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ are their minima over all orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​, and the lower bound of the node is

LB(Jr)=∑i∈Jrdi+max⁡(T^r,S^r).LB(J_r)=\sum_{i\in J_r}d_i+\max(\hat T_r,\hat S_r).LB(Jr​)=i∈Jr​∑​di​+max(T^r​,S^r​).

The procedure starts with a list holding only the empty node. A step removes the first node, creates one child for every unscheduled job by appending it, and inserts the children into the list ranked by LBLBLB (a new node goes before old nodes with equal bound). It stops the first time the first node of the list is terminal, i.e. has scheduled n−1n-1n−1 jobs, so that its last job is forced.

Formalization targets

Goal: the procedure finds a sequence of least mean completion time

For all real data, (i) the procedure reaches a list whose first node PPP is terminal, and (ii) whenever that happens, the sequence σ∗\sigma^\astσ∗ formed by PPP and its one unscheduled job satisfies

∑i=1ndi(σ∗)≤∑i=1ndi(σ)for every sequence σ.\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma^\ast)\le\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma)\qquad\text{for every sequence }\sigma .i=1∑n​di​(σ∗)≤i=1∑n​di​(σ)for every sequence σ.

Milestones

  1. For 1≤r≤n−11\le r\le n-11≤r≤n−1 and every sequence σ\sigmaσ beginning with JrJ_rJr​: TrT_rTr​ of the order in which σ\sigmaσ processes Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is at most ∑i∈Jˉrdi(σ)\sum_{i\in\bar J_r}d_i(\sigma)∑i∈Jˉr​​di​(σ), hence so is T^r\hat T_rT^r​ (pp. 405–406).
  2. An ordering of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ by increasing aia_iai​ attains T^r\hat T_rT^r​ (p. 406).
  3. An ordering of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ by increasing bjb_jbj​ attains S^r\hat S_rS^r​ (p. 406).
  4. The analogue of 1 for SrS_rSr​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ (p. 406).
  5. LB(Jr)≤∑idi(σ)LB(J_r)\le\sum_i d_i(\sigma)LB(Jr​)≤∑i​di​(σ) for every σ\sigmaσ beginning with JrJ_rJr​ (p. 406).
  6. At depth n−1n-1n−1, LBLBLB equals the value of the node's unique completion (labelled: what the stopping rule of p. 402 needs).
  7. Without delays, job ipi_pip​ completes at ∑Jraj+ai1+⋯+aip+bip\sum_{J_r}a_j+a_{i_1}+\dots+a_{i_p}+b_{i_p}∑Jr​​aj​+ai1​​+⋯+aip​​+bip​​ and ∑Jˉrdi=Tr\sum_{\bar J_r}d_i=T_r∑Jˉr​​di​=Tr​ (pp. 405–406).
  8. The three-job example of p. 408: 1–2 is optimal for jobs 1, 2, while 3–2–1 is optimal for all three.

Significance

The goal is the correctness of the paper's algorithm for the two-machine problem: the sequence it returns is optimal, not merely good, and it returns one for every input. The lower-bound milestones are the paper's own justification of its bound, and the sorting milestones show that the bound is computable in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) per node rather than by a minimization over (n−r)!(n-r)!(n−r)! orderings.

On the formal side, no item on the platform treats flow-shop lower bounds or branch and bound over sequences; the nearest is the branch-and-bound mission for jointly constrained biconvex programs (BiconvexProg.BranchBound, Al-Khayyal and Falk 1983), an unrelated algorithm over boxes. The paper's arguments are short and informal ("it should be evident"); the formalization makes explicit that the SrS_rSr​ bound holds for every order and every input, which the paper derives only by analogy with TrT_rTr​. The published definitions of Johnson's as-soon-as-possible schedule (from the Johnson 1954 missions) are reused for the completion times.

Difficulty

The two halves of the bound are relaxations of different kinds. TrT_rTr​ ignores waiting on machine BBB; SrS_rSr​ ignores idle time on machine BBB after its first job of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ and replaces that job's machine-AAA time by the smallest one. The paper's description of SrS_rSr​ as "the sum of the completion times" when min⁡b≥max⁡a\min b\ge\max aminb≥maxa is not an identity, since min⁡a\min amina replaces aj1a_{j_1}aj1​​; only the inequality is true, and it has to be proved for the given order directly. The sorting claims are rearrangement inequalities, with the coefficient n−r−p+1n-r-p+1n−r−p+1 decreasing in the position.

The goal is a statement about all n!n!n! sequences, while the procedure only ever looks at the nodes on its list, whose length changes at every step. The tempting one-line justification, that the first terminal node has the smallest bound, says nothing by itself about sequences that are not descendants of nodes still on the list, nor about whether the bound of a terminal node is the value of its sequence; and termination of the search has to be shown, not assumed.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin n (the paper's 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n shifted to 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1); processing times are arbitrary reals, with no sign condition; all statements are true without one.
  • Completion times of a full sequence come from Johnson's asapC2 (referenced definition JohnsonFlowShop.TwoStage.asapStart2). The objective is the sum of the completion times; the paper's mean differs by the fixed factor 1/n1/n1/n.
  • A node is a list of jobs; "a sequence begins with JrJ_rJr​" means JrJ_rJr​ is a prefix of its list of jobs.
  • T^r\hat T_rT^r​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ are defined as minima over all orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​, not by a sorted order; that sorting attains them is milestones 2 and 3. Defining them by sorting would make those milestones true by definition.
  • At the root (r=0r=0r=0) dkd_kdk​ is read as 000; the root is never ranked, and the lower-bound milestones are stated for 1≤r≤n−11\le r\le n-11≤r≤n−1.
  • Terminal nodes are at depth n−1n-1n−1. The paper says "a node that has scheduled all nnn jobs"; its own example stops at a node with three of four jobs, and its node counts end at level n−1n-1n−1.
  • Explicit readings: "is a lower bound" means ≤\le≤ the objective of every sequence beginning with the node; "will exceed" means ≥\ge≥; "the problem is solved: that node's sequence is an optimal one" means termination plus optimality over all n!n!n! sequences.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the bound is not taken over an unrestricted or empty set of orderings (the set of orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is nonempty), optimality is over all permutations rather than over the nodes the run visits, and termination is part of the goal.
  • Not formalized: the reduction to permutation schedules (the paper's footnote on p. 401 asserts it for mean completion time without proof, and no platform item proves it), dominance discarding (pp. 403–405), the jobset generator, Tables I–III and the 9-job examples.

Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on as-soon-as-possible two-machine schedules (completion times of a prefix, monotonicity in the start time), are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. Ignall and L. Schrage, Application of the branch and bound technique to some flow-shop scheduling problems, Operations Research 13(3), 400–412, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.3.400
  • S. M. Johnson, Optimal two- and three-stage production schedules with setup times included, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 1(1), 61–68, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010110
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson and R. Sethi, The complexity of flowshop and jobshop scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2), 117–129, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • A. H. Land and A. G. Doig, An automatic method of solving discrete programming problems, Econometrica 28(3), 497–520, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910129
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 6: When Workers Are Alike in Production, Gross Substitutes Is Equivalent to Nonincreasing Returns to WorkersResearch Paper

Motivation

Kelso and Crawford's 1982 Econometrica paper studies a labor market in which firms hire sets of heterogeneous workers at individually negotiated salaries. Their existence results for the core and for competitive equilibrium, and the convergence of their salary-adjustment process, all rest on one hypothesis about each firm's technology, the gross-substitutes condition (GS): raising some workers' salaries never makes a firm drop a worker whose salary did not change. The condition has since become central to matching with contracts, ascending auctions and the theory of discrete convexity (Hatfield and Milgrom 2005; Fujishige and Yang 2003). It is defined through the firm's demand correspondence rather than through the production function, so its economic content is not obvious.

Section 6 of the paper explains that content. Its first result, Theorem 6, says that when workers are alike in production, (GS) is exactly the familiar requirement of nonincreasing returns to workers. This mission formalizes Theorem 6, the two halves of its proof, and the companion claim that with two heterogeneous workers (GS) is equivalent to subadditivity.

Setting

Fix a finite set WWW of mmm workers and a single firm. Its production technology is a function y:2W→Ry : 2^W \to \mathbb{R}y:2W→R; y(C)y(C)y(C) is the gross product when the firm hires the set CCC. A salary vector s∈RWs \in \mathbb{R}^Ws∈RW assigns to each worker iii the salary sis_isi​ the firm must pay to hire him or her. The firm's net profit is

π(C;s)=y(C)−∑i∈Csi,\pi(C; s) = y(C) - \sum_{i \in C} s_i ,π(C;s)=y(C)−i∈C∑​si​,

and CCC is demanded at sss, written C∈M(s)C \in M(s)C∈M(s), if it maximizes π( ⋅ ;s)\pi(\,\cdot\,; s)π(⋅;s) over all subsets of WWW (problem (A) of the paper). The technology satisfies (GS) if for all salary vectors s≤s~s \le \tilde ss≤s~ and every C∈M(s)C \in M(s)C∈M(s) there is C~∈M(s~)\tilde C \in M(\tilde s)C~∈M(s~) with

T(C)={ i∈C:s~i=si }⊆C~.T(C) = \{\, i \in C : \tilde s_i = s_i \,\} \subseteq \tilde C .T(C)={i∈C:s~i​=si​}⊆C~.

Workers are alike in production when the product depends only on how many are hired: y(C)=yˉ(∣C∣)y(C) = \bar y(|C|)y(C)=yˉ​(∣C∣) for some yˉ:N→R\bar y : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}yˉ​:N→R. The workers remain distinct individuals, since their salaries can differ. The function yˉ\bar yyˉ​ has nonincreasing returns to workers (DR) if

yˉ(w+1)−yˉ(w)≤yˉ(w)−yˉ(w−1)for every integer w, 1≤w≤m−1.\bar y(w + 1) - \bar y(w) \le \bar y(w) - \bar y(w - 1) \qquad \text{for every integer } w,\ 1 \le w \le m - 1 .yˉ​(w+1)−yˉ​(w)≤yˉ​(w)−yˉ​(w−1)for every integer w, 1≤w≤m−1.

A technology yyy is subadditive if y(C∪D)≤y(C)+y(D)y(C \cup D) \le y(C) + y(D)y(C∪D)≤y(C)+y(D) for disjoint C,D⊆WC, D \subseteq WC,D⊆W.

In the Lean development these are profit, IsDemanded, GrossSubstitutesOn y Set.univ, DR (Fintype.card W) ybar and Subadditive y, in the namespace KelsoCrawford.Returns.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 1499)

For every yˉ:N→R\bar y : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}yˉ​:N→R,

(DR) for yˉ on {0,…,m}  ⟺  C↦yˉ(∣C∣) satisfies (GS) on RW.\text{(DR) for } \bar y \text{ on } \{0, \dots, m\} \iff C \mapsto \bar y(|C|) \text{ satisfies (GS) on } \mathbb{R}^W .(DR) for yˉ​ on {0,…,m}⟺C↦yˉ​(∣C∣) satisfies (GS) on RW.

Milestones

  1. (DR) implies (GS) (proof of Theorem 6, p. 1499).
  2. If (DR) fails, (GS) fails (proof of Theorem 6, pp. 1499–1500): if for some www with 1≤w≤m−11 \le w \le m - 11≤w≤m−1
yˉ(w+1)−yˉ(w)>yˉ(w)−yˉ(w−1),(19)\bar y(w + 1) - \bar y(w) > \bar y(w) - \bar y(w - 1), \tag{19}yˉ​(w+1)−yˉ​(w)>yˉ​(w)−yˉ​(w−1),(19)

then C↦yˉ(∣C∣)C \mapsto \bar y(|C|)C↦yˉ​(∣C∣) violates (GS). 3. Two workers (p. 1500), off the goal's path: if ∣W∣=2|W| = 2∣W∣=2 and y(∅)=0y(\emptyset) = 0y(∅)=0, then yyy satisfies (GS) if and only if yyy is subadditive, that is v1+v2≥v12v_1 + v_2 \ge v_{12}v1​+v2​≥v12​.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 6 gives a production-side reading of (GS): restricted to identical workers it is nonincreasing returns, so (GS) can be viewed as the generalization of that convexity condition to heterogeneous workers. The paper uses this reading to explain why something like (GS) is needed for existence: without it the core and the competitive equilibrium may fail to exist, as the example of Section 6 shows (mission 7 of this series). The two-worker claim locates the boundary further: with two workers (GS) is subadditivity, while with three or more subadditivity is no longer enough.

Formalizing it. Nothing of this paper was on Prove2Me before this series. Theorem 6 is a proved result in the paper. This draft provides compiling Lean statements of both directions, with (GS) in the paper's own form (real salary vectors and the set T(C)T(C)T(C)), and of the two-worker characterization; their proofs remain open. A completed mission would provide machine-checked proofs of those statements. The statements fix the boundary conventions exactly (which www are constrained, what happens with zero or one worker), which the informal argument leaves implicit. The definitions of profit, demand and (GS) are the same as in the other missions of the series (1–5 and 7), so proofs here are reusable there.

Difficulty

For (DR) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (GS), the natural argument sorts workers by salary and observes that a profit-maximizing firm hires the w∗w^*w∗ cheapest workers. With ties among salaries this description is not literally true (any w∗w^*w∗ cheapest workers will do), and after a salary increase the new optimal size and the new ranking change at once; showing that some new maximizer keeps every worker whose salary stayed fixed requires a careful exchange argument rather than a monotone comparison of indices. For the converse, a single failure of (DR) must be turned into an explicit pair of salary vectors; the construction must make one worker strictly demanded before the change and strictly undemanded after it, which requires controlling every competing set, not only the sets of the critical sizes www and w+1w + 1w+1. The two-worker characterization requires a case analysis over the four candidate demands at every salary pair, including ties.

Formalization scope

Workers form an arbitrary finite type W with m = Fintype.card W; a technology is a function Finset W → ℝ, and "alike in production" is the technology fun C => ybar C.card with ybar : ℕ → ℝ. Salaries are arbitrary real vectors W → ℝ, and (GS) is required on all of RW\mathbb{R}^WRW (Set.univ), the continuous version that Theorem 6 is about. A discrete market can satisfy (GS) on its salary grid while its continuous version does not, so the discrete version is a different statement and is not targeted here. (DR) is written for natural numbers with 1 ≤ w and w + 1 ≤ m, so that w - 1 never truncates. For m≤1m \le 1m≤1 it is vacuous, and no lower bound on mmm is imposed. Neither (MP) nor (NFL), yˉ(0)=0\bar y(0) = 0yˉ​(0)=0, is assumed in Theorem 6: the paper uses neither, and adding them would weaken the theorem. The two-worker claim keeps the paper's normalization y(∅)=0y(\emptyset) = 0y(∅)=0 and uses its general definition of subadditivity over disjoint pairs.

A trivializing formalization would restrict (GS) to a single salary vector, quantify demand over a subfamily of sets, or replace "some demanded set contains T(C)T(C)T(C)" by "the given set does", and is ruled out by the definitions above, which follow the paper's (A) and (GS) word for word. The read-out of the goal as two milestones is the paper's own split of its proof.

Infrastructure needed: finite sums over Finset, sorting of a finite salary vector, and elementary facts on concave sequences. Contributions that would be reusable beyond this mission include a general lemma that concave functions of cardinality yield gross-substitutes demand, and the link between (GS) and M♮^\natural♮-concavity of set functions (Murota's gross-substitutes axioms are on Prove2Me as Shuze Chen's DiscreteConvex_MConvexFunctionsC_MNatGS, a related but different object: one price per good and integer bundles). Proofs of either direction, of the two-worker claim, or of intermediate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6) (1982), 1483–1504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913392
  • V. P. Crawford and E. M. Knoer, Job matching with heterogeneous firms and workers, Econometrica 49(2) (1981), 437–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913320
  • S. Fujishige and Z. Yang, A note on Kelso and Crawford's gross substitutes condition, Mathematics of Operations Research 28(3) (2003), 463–469. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.28.3.463.16393
  • J. W. Hatfield and P. R. Milgrom, Matching with contracts, American Economic Review 95(4) (2005), 913–935. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825466
  • K. Murota, Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718508
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Monotone Comparative Statics I: The Argmax Is Monotone Nondecreasing in (t, S) If and Only If f Is Quasisupermodular in x and Has the Single Crossing Property in (x; t)Research Paper

Why monotone comparative statics matters

An optimization problem often changes when a parameter changes: a price rises, a constraint expands, or a strategic environment shifts. Comparative statics asks whether the optimal choice moves in a predictable direction. The usual numerical tools, such as derivatives, can be unavailable when choices form a discrete set or the objective is neither smooth nor concave. Milgrom and Shannon's Monotonicity Theorem gives a condition expressed entirely through order and preference comparisons. It applies to individual optimization problems and supplies the order argument used later in their paper for games with strategic complementarities.

Their 1994 paper moves beyond cardinal conditions such as supermodularity and increasing differences. Those conditions imply useful comparative statics, but they can change under a strictly increasing transformation of the objective even though every argmax set stays the same. Quasisupermodularity and single crossing describe the comparisons that actually govern the argmax. The theorem characterizes these conditions through the behavior of optimizers over all constraint sets, rather than giving only a sufficient test. The historical relationship and the claims in this paragraph are described in Milgrom and Shannon, Sections 1–2.

Ordered choices, constraints, and preferences

Let XXX be a lattice: a partially ordered choice set in which every two choices x,yx,yx,y have a meet x∧yx\wedge yx∧y and a join x∨yx\vee yx∨y. Let TTT be a partially ordered parameter set and f:X×T→Rf:X\times T\to\mathbb Rf:X×T→R an objective. For any constraint set S⊆XS\subseteq XS⊆X, define the possibly empty maximizer set

M(t,S)=argmax⁡x∈Sf(x,t)={x∈S:f(y,t)≤f(x,t) for every y∈S}.M(t,S)=\operatorname{argmax}_{x\in S}f(x,t)=\{x\in S: f(y,t)\le f(x,t)\text{ for every }y\in S\}.M(t,S)=argmaxx∈S​f(x,t)={x∈S:f(y,t)≤f(x,t) for every y∈S}.

The strong set order, written A≤sBA\le_s BA≤s​B, compares subsets of the lattice by requiring a∧b∈Aa\wedge b\in Aa∧b∈A and a∨b∈Ba\vee b\in Ba∨b∈B for every a∈Aa\in Aa∈A and b∈Bb\in Bb∈B. It can compare feasible sets as well as sets of optimizers. On singleton sets it agrees with the order on XXX. It also holds vacuously if either set is empty; it is reflexive at SSS exactly when SSS is a sublattice. These are the paper's conventions on page 159.

A function g:X→Rg:X\to\mathbb Rg:X→R is quasisupermodular if, for every x,y∈Xx,y\in Xx,y∈X, both

g(x∧y)≤g(x)⇒g(y)≤g(x∨y),g(x∧y)<g(x)⇒g(y)<g(x∨y)g(x\wedge y)\le g(x)\Rightarrow g(y)\le g(x\vee y),\qquad g(x\wedge y)<g(x)\Rightarrow g(y)<g(x\vee y)g(x∧y)≤g(x)⇒g(y)≤g(x∨y),g(x∧y)<g(x)⇒g(y)<g(x∨y)

hold. The single crossing property of fff in (x;t)(x;t)(x;t) requires, whenever x′′<x′x''<x'x′′<x′ and t′′<t′t''<t't′′<t′, that a weak or strict preference for x′x'x′ over x′′x''x′′ at t′′t''t′′ remains respectively weak or strict at t′t't′. The strict version sends even a weak preference at t′′t''t′′ to a strict one at t′t't′. These definitions are given on pages 160 and 162.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4: the monotonicity equivalence

The main target is Theorem 4 on page 162:

[∀t≤t′, S≤sS′:M(t,S)≤sM(t′,S′)]⟺[∀t, f(⋅,t) is quasisupermodular on X]∧[f has single crossing in (x;t)].\bigl[\forall t\le t',\ S\le_s S': M(t,S)\le_s M(t',S')\bigr] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \bigl[\forall t,\ f(\cdot,t)\text{ is quasisupermodular on }X\bigr] \land\bigl[f\text{ has single crossing in }(x;t)\bigr].[∀t≤t′, S≤s​S′:M(t,S)≤s​M(t′,S′)]⟺[∀t, f(⋅,t) is quasisupermodular on X]∧[f has single crossing in (x;t)].

The milestone list records the two necessity claims and the sufficiency claim separately, using the three corresponding passages of the paper's proof. The goal keeps both directions together. It imposes no restriction on which subsets may be used as constraints.

Consequences and the stronger selection statement

Corollary 1 characterizes quasisupermodularity alone through monotonicity as the constraint set changes, with no varying parameter. Corollary 2 says that the maximizers over a sublattice themselves form a sublattice. The reflexivity remark identifies when S≤sSS\le_s SS≤s​S holds. Theorem 4′ uses the strict single crossing property and a nondecreasing feasible-set correspondence S:T→2XS:T\to 2^XS:T→2X to conclude that every selection of maximizers is nondecreasing. These nearby results share the definition layer with the main theorem and give distinct targets for the formal development.

What the result supplies

The equivalence turns an order property of an entire family of optimization problems into two properties of the objective. In particular, its converse shows that if every feasible-set comparison produces monotone maximizers, then quasisupermodularity and single crossing are forced. This matters for problems where an analyst can reason about choice behavior more directly than about algebraic properties of fff. The corollaries also separate the effects of constraints and parameters and describe the structure of the optimal-choice set. The paper develops these consequences on pages 162–163.

The theorem is proved in the paper. The remaining work here is a machine-checked Lean proof of the ordinal characterization, its two directions, and the adjacent consequences. Published Prove2Me definitions already encode the strong set order, and its Topkis series covers related cardinal hypotheses such as supermodularity and increasing differences. This mission adds the paper's quasisupermodularity and single crossing predicates and seeks formal proofs of the distinct ordinal results. The separate characterization and linear-perturbation results of the same paper are targets of the other missions in this series.

Where the proof is difficult

The obstacle is the interaction of two orders. An increase in ttt changes preferences, while an increase in SSS changes which choices can be compared. A pointwise claim that an optimizer rises does not follow from either order condition alone, particularly when maximizers tie or are incomparable. The main theorem concerns sets of maximizers under the strong set order, so both the meet and join of optimizers at two parameter–constraint pairs must land in the correct maximizing sets. Conversely, observing monotonicity for one fixed feasible set cannot establish quasisupermodularity; the equivalence relies on monotonicity across every constraint set. The weak and strict preference clauses have different roles, so replacing either by the other changes the target. These are the distinctions visible in Theorem 4 and its proof.

Formalization scope

Lean represents XXX with Lattice, TTT with PartialOrder, and f:X→T→Rf:X\to T\to\mathbb Rf:X→T→R in curried form. No finiteness, total order, topology, measurability, or maximizer-attainment hypothesis is imposed. The paper's product order for product lattices is Lean's usual componentwise order. The imported Supermodularity.Lattices.InducedSetOrder is exactly the paper's strong set order, including its behavior on empty sets. The definition argmaxOn returns the set of points in SSS whose objective value bounds every value attained in SSS; it may be empty.

Quasisupermodularity is encoded with a reusable set argument but applied to Set.univ in every theorem here, so the property concerns the whole lattice. Single crossing compares strictly ordered choices and strictly ordered parameters and preserves both weak and strict preferences. ArgmaxMonotone compares weakly ordered parameters and all constraint sets under the strong set order. Theorem 4′ encodes a selection on an arbitrary domain D⊆TD\subseteq TD⊆T where maximizers actually exist; it makes no global existence assertion. For Corollary 2, an arbitrary parameter is fixed and its objective is written g:X→Rg:X\to\mathbb Rg:X→R.

These choices rule out easy specializations that would change the theorem: taking XXX to be a chain, restricting quasisupermodularity to a selected feasible set, demanding nonempty argmax sets, or dropping strict preference clauses. The reusable development consists of the maximizer-set definition, the two ordinal predicates, and their relation to the published strong set order. Contributions proving the goal, its three proof-direction milestones, the corollaries, and the selection theorem all fit this scope.

Selected references

  • Paul Milgrom and Chris Shannon, Monotone Comparative Statics, Econometrica 62(1), 1994, 157–180. DOI: 10.2307/2951479.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 2: Under Gross Substitutes Every Job-Matching Market with Continuous Salaries Has a Strict Core AllocationResearch Paper

Motivation

Labour markets match workers to firms that hire teams: a firm's output depends on the whole set of workers it employs, while each worker holds one job. A salary agreement is stable when no firm and group of workers can renegotiate among themselves to the benefit of all of them. Shapley and Shubik (1971) showed that such stable outcomes exist when each firm hires at most one worker and utility is transferable; Crawford and Knoer (1981) extended this to general utilities, still one-to-one. Kelso and Crawford (1982) let firm size be endogenous and identified the condition under which existence survives: workers must be gross substitutes for every firm. Their condition later became the standard assumption for existence of Walrasian equilibrium with indivisible goods (Gul and Stacchetti, 1999) and the basis of matching with contracts (Hatfield and Milgrom, 2005).

This mission is the second of a seven-mission series on the paper: 1, the salary-adjustment process; 2, existence of a strict core with continuous salaries (this mission); 3, one-sided coalition formation; 4, the firm-optimal allocation; 5, comparative statics; 6, gross substitutes versus nonincreasing returns; 7, a market with no core. Each mission is self-contained. Nothing of this paper was on Prove2Me before this series.

Setting

There is a finite set WWW of mmm workers and a nonempty finite set FFF of firms. Worker iii's utility of working for firm jjj at salary s∈Rs\in\mathbb Rs∈R is ui(j;s)u^i(j;s)ui(j;s), strictly increasing and continuous in sss. Firm jjj's gross product when it hires the set C⊆WC\subseteq WC⊆W is yj(C)y^j(C)yj(C), and its profit at the salary vector sj=(sij)i∈Ws^j=(s_{ij})_{i\in W}sj=(sij​)i∈W​ is

πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−∑i∈Csij.\pi^j(C;s^j)=y^j(C)-\sum_{i\in C}s_{ij}.πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−i∈C∑​sij​.

The reservation salary σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ is defined by ui(j;σij)=ui(0;0)u^i(j;\sigma_{ij})=u^i(0;0)ui(j;σij​)=ui(0;0), worker iii's utility of unemployment. Section 2 of the paper assumes, for every firm jjj:

  • (MP) yj(C∪{i})−yj(C)−σij≥0y^j(C\cup\{i\})-y^j(C)-\sigma_{ij}\ge0yj(C∪{i})−yj(C)−σij​≥0 whenever i∉Ci\notin Ci∈/C;
  • (NFL) yj(∅)=0y^j(\emptyset)=0yj(∅)=0;
  • (GS) if CCC maximizes πj(⋅ ;sj)\pi^j(\cdot\,;s^j)πj(⋅;sj) and s~j≥sj\tilde s^j\ge s^js~j≥sj componentwise, then some maximizer C~\tilde CC~ of πj(⋅ ;s~j)\pi^j(\cdot\,;\tilde s^j)πj(⋅;s~j) contains every i∈Ci\in Ci∈C with s~ij=sij\tilde s_{ij}=s_{ij}s~ij​=sij​.

An allocation assigns each worker iii to a firm f(i)f(i)f(i) at salary sif(i)s_{if(i)}sif(i)​; firm jjj hires Cj={i:f(i)=j}C^j=\{i:f(i)=j\}Cj={i:f(i)=j}. It is individually rational (D1) if sif(i)≥σif(i)s_{if(i)}\ge\sigma_{if(i)}sif(i)​≥σif(i)​ and πj(Cj;sj)≥0\pi^j(C^j;s^j)\ge0πj(Cj;sj)≥0 for all i,ji,ji,j. A firm jjj, a set CCC and salaries rijr_{ij}rij​ improve upon it if ui(j;rij)≥ui(f(i);sif(i))u^i(j;r_{ij})\ge u^i(f(i);s_{if(i)})ui(j;rij​)≥ui(f(i);sif(i)​) for i∈Ci\in Ci∈C and πj(C;rj)≥πj(Cj;sj)\pi^j(C;r^j)\ge\pi^j(C^j;s^j)πj(C;rj)≥πj(Cj;sj), with at least one inequality strict; they strictly improve upon it if all are strict. A strict core allocation (D2) is an individually rational allocation no coalition improves upon; a core allocation (D3) is one no coalition strictly improves upon. In the continuous market coalitions may use any real salaries; in the discrete market of unit δ>0\delta>0δ>0 all salaries lie on the grids σij+δN\sigma_{ij}+\delta\mathbb Nσij​+δN.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Under regular utilities, (MP), (NFL), the reservation-salary relation and (GS) on all real salary vectors,

∃ (f;s) individually rational that no firm–worker coalition can improve upon (D2).\exists\,(f;s)\ \text{individually rational that no firm–worker coalition can improve upon (D2).}∃(f;s) individually rational that no firm–worker coalition can improve upon (D2).

The goal fixes no grid, no constant and no particular technology.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. Every discrete market has a core (p. 1490): for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, if (GS) holds on grid salary vectors, a discrete core allocation (D3) exists.
  2. The gains are bounded above zero (p. 1491, eqs. (8)–(11)): if the continuous market has no strict core allocation, there is H>0H>0H>0 such that every individually rational allocation admits a coalition that leaves its workers no worse off and raises its firm's profit by at least HHH.
  3. A fine grid inherits the improvement (pp. 1491–1492): with such an HHH, every individually rational grid allocation of unit 0<δ<H/(m+1)0<\delta<H/(m+1)0<δ<H/(m+1) can be strictly improved upon in the discrete market.

Significance

Theorem 2 gives existence of a stable assignment of workers to firms with salaries, for arbitrary technologies under which workers are gross substitutes, without any convexity or divisibility of labour. Because the core and the competitive equilibrium coincide in this model when salaries are divisible (p. 1487), it is also an existence theorem for competitive equilibrium in a market with indivisible workers; the example of mission 7 shows that it fails without (GS). The Shapley–Shubik assignment game is the special case ui(j;s)=aij+su^i(j;s)=a_{ij}+sui(j;s)=aij​+s, yj(C)=∑i∈Cbijy^j(C)=\sum_{i\in C}b_{ij}yj(C)=∑i∈C​bij​ with at most one worker per firm.

The result has been proved since 1982; it has not been machine-checked. Prove2Me holds a formalization of the Shapley–Shubik assignment game (AssignmentGame.CoreLP), whose core-existence theorem is a different model and is not yet proved, and Murota's gross-substitutes axioms for demand on Zn\mathbb Z^nZn, which concern one price per good rather than firm-specific salary vectors over sets of workers. Neither supplies this market or Theorem 2.

Difficulty

Discrete core allocations exist at every unit δ\deltaδ, so the natural first idea is to take a sequence of them as δ→0\delta\to0δ→0 and pass to a limit. A limit of discrete core allocations need only be a core allocation of the continuous market in the weak sense D3, and a coalition that improves upon the limit may need salaries off every grid; nothing in the discrete statements controls how much a coalition gains, so the blocking coalitions of the continuous market may vanish on the grids. The required control has to be uniform over all individually rational allocations, which form an infinite set, while each blocking comparison involves the utilities of several workers and a nonadditive technology. A second obstacle is in the paper's notation: the gain (8) uses the salary ρij\rho_{ij}ρij​ with ui(j;ρij)=ui[f(i);sif(i)]u^i(j;\rho_{ij})=u^i[f(i);s_{if(i)}]ui(j;ρij​)=ui[f(i);sif(i)​], which need not exist when ui(j;⋅)u^i(j;\cdot)ui(j;⋅) is bounded.

Formalization scope

Workers and firms are arbitrary finite types; every theorem assumes at least one firm (the paper's n≥1n\ge1n≥1), since with no firm and some worker no allocation exists. Salaries, utilities, outputs and profits are real numbers. An allocation has no unemployment, as in D1. The reservation salaries σ\sigmaσ are data, and the paper's definition of σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ enters as the hypothesis ui(j;σij)=ui(k;σik)u^i(j;\sigma_{ij})=u^i(k;\sigma_{ik})ui(j;σij​)=ui(k;σik​); it is assumed on the goal and on milestones 2 and 3, where the discretization step needs every improving salary to be at least σij\sigma_{ij}σij​. Milestone 1 assumes neither this relation nor continuous (GS). The standing assumptions of p. 1486, which Theorem 2's sentence does not repeat, are hypotheses of the goal.

Explicit readings of the paper's phrases: "continuous market" means coalitions may use any real salary; "bounded above zero" is one H>0H>0H>0 valid for every individually rational allocation, stated without ρij\rho_{ij}ρij​ by quantifying over admissible coalition salaries; "the unit of measurement smaller than H/(m+1)H/(m+1)H/(m+1)" is 0<δ<H/(m+1)0<\delta<H/(m+1)0<δ<H/(m+1) with m=∣W∣m=|W|m=∣W∣ and the division in R\mathbb RR; the discrete market's salaries are σij+δk\sigma_{ij}+\delta kσij​+δk, k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N, the paper's integer salaries starting at σij\sigma_{ij}σij​ (R1, R4) with a general unit.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the goal assumes (GS) on all real vectors rather than on one grid (a stronger theorem the paper does not prove), its conclusion is the strict core D2 rather than the weaker core D3, and its hypotheses are satisfiable (a one-worker, one-firm market satisfies all of them).

A complete development needs finite optimization over sets of workers, a compactness argument over the individually rational salary schedules of each assignment, and the existence of discrete core allocations (the existence form of Theorem 1, mission 1). Proofs of the milestones, of the equivalence of D2 and D3 in the continuous market, and lemmas on finite demand correspondences reusable across the series are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes, Econometrica 50(6), 1982, 1483–1504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913392
  • V. P. Crawford and E. M. Knoer, Job Matching with Heterogeneous Firms and Workers, Econometrica 49(2), 1981, 437–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912751
  • L. S. Shapley and M. Shubik, The Assignment Game I: The Core, International Journal of Game Theory 1, 1971, 111–130. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753437
  • F. Gul and E. Stacchetti, Walrasian Equilibrium with Gross Substitutes, Journal of Economic Theory 87(1), 1999, 95–124. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1999.2531
  • J. W. Hatfield and P. R. Milgrom, Matching with Contracts, American Economic Review 95(4), 2005, 913–935. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825466
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatorics·Captain: mikedeng1

Potential Games 1: A Game Is an Exact Potential Game If and Only If I(γ, u) = 0 on Every Simple Closed Path of Length 4Research Paper

Why this question matters

In a strategic game, each player evaluates a change in their own strategy using that player's own payoff. These incentives need not point in a common direction. A potential game is a case in which one real-valued function records every player's payoff change under a unilateral deviation. This common function lets questions about incentives be expressed as questions about one object on the space of strategy profiles. Monderer and Shapley's 1996 paper introduced several kinds of potential and gave a local characterization of the exact kind. The characterization is the subject of this mission.

The local test matters because the defining condition appears to require finding an unknown potential on the entire profile space. Theorem 2.8 says that a condition on four-step cycles already determines whether such a function exists, even when individual strategy sets are infinite. The paper compares this characterization with the familiar idea that a conservative field has zero integral around closed curves; here the “integral” is a finite sum of payoff changes along unilateral deviations (Monderer and Shapley, pp. 130–131).

Games, deviations, and path sums

Let NNN be a finite set of players. For each player i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, let YiY^iYi be a strategy set, and let Y=∏i∈NYiY=\prod_{i\in N}Y^iY=∏i∈N​Yi be the set of pure strategy profiles. The payoff of player iii is a function ui:Y→Ru^i:Y\to\mathbb Rui:Y→R. If y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y, the notation (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) means the profile obtained by replacing only player iii's strategy with x∈Yix\in Y^ix∈Yi. The strategy sets themselves are not required to be finite in this section of the paper (p. 127).

An exact potential is a function P:Y→RP:Y\to\mathbb RP:Y→R such that, for every iii, every opponents' profile y−iy^{-i}y−i, and every x,z∈Yix,z\in Y^ix,z∈Yi,

ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z).u^i(y^{-i},x)-u^i(y^{-i},z) =P(y^{-i},x)-P(y^{-i},z).ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z).

A game admitting such a function is an exact potential game. The paper uses the shorter term “potential game” for this class when the adjective is clear (pp. 127–128, equation (2.2)).

A path γ=(y0,…,yL)\gamma=(y_0,\ldots,y_L)γ=(y0​,…,yL​) is a sequence in which each step changes exactly one player's strategy to a different value. Write iki_kik​ for the unique player who moves from yk−1y_{k-1}yk−1​ to yky_kyk​. The path sum of the payoff vector uuu is

I(γ,u)=∑k=1L(uik(yk)−uik(yk−1)).I(\gamma,u)=\sum_{k=1}^{L} \bigl(u^{i_k}(y_k)-u^{i_k}(y_{k-1})\bigr).I(γ,u)=k=1∑L​(uik​(yk​)−uik​(yk−1​)).

The path is closed when y0=yLy_0=y_Ly0​=yL​. It is simple closed when, in addition, the vertices y0,…,yL−1y_0,\ldots,y_{L-1}y0​,…,yL−1​ are pairwise distinct. Its length is LLL, the number of steps and the number of vertices before the final return. These definitions follow pp. 128, 130–131.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2.8: four equivalent conditions

For a game with finitely many players, Theorem 2.8 asserts the equivalence of all four claims:

Γ has an exact potential;I(γ,u)=0for every finite closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every finite simple closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every simple closed path γ of length 4.\begin{aligned} &\Gamma\text{ has an exact potential};\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every finite closed path }\gamma;\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every finite simple closed path }\gamma;\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every simple closed path }\gamma\text{ of length }4. \end{aligned}​Γ has an exact potential;I(γ,u)=0for every finite closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every finite simple closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every simple closed path γ of length 4.​

The last condition is a local criterion, but the goal keeps the full four-way equivalence of the published theorem, p. 131. The milestone list follows five claims in its Appendix A proof: vanishing path sums from a potential, path independence, construction of a potential from vanishing closed-path sums, the local exchange of two different players' moves, and the reduction from all closed paths to length-four simple cycles (pp. 138–139).

Related results in the same development

Corollary 2.9 expresses the length-four test directly as a zero sum of payoff changes around four corners obtained by varying two players' strategies. Lemma 2.7 says that two exact potentials for the same game differ by one additive constant. Both are included as supporting statements from the same definition layer, although they are not milestones in the attack path for Theorem 2.8 (pp. 130–131).

What the result provides

Theorem 2.8 turns existence of a global function into a test on local cycles. Corollary 2.9 makes those cycles visible in payoff tables: fixing all but two players, the alternating sum around each two-player rectangle must vanish. For finite strategy sets this gives a direct finite collection of conditions; for infinite strategy sets the theorem remains a mathematical characterization without claiming a finite algorithm (Monderer and Shapley, p. 131).

The original paper proves these statements. The formalization work is to represent games, paths, path sums, and the four-way equivalence in Lean, then supply machine-checked proofs. The present mission contains compiled statements with open proofs. Its definition modules are also reusable for the paper's other results about potentials, improvement paths, and congestion games.

Where the proof is difficult

The challenging direction is that zero sums on simple length-four cycles force zero sums on every closed path. A closed path may repeat vertices and may involve more than two players. A direct appeal to the local condition does not cover such a path. The Appendix A argument uses changes to a path's sequence of deviators, and its informal treatment of adjacent moves by the same player leaves a boundary case: the two moves can cancel, so replacing them by one move would create a null step, which the definition of a path excludes. A formal proof must account for this case while preserving the paper's exact statement (pp. 138–139).

Formalization scope

Lean represents the finite player set by a finite type ι\iotaι and a profile by a dependent function y:∏i:ιYiy:\prod_{i:\iota}Y^iy:∏i:ι​Yi. Strategy sets YiY^iYi remain arbitrary types. The operation (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) is a one-coordinate update. A finite path stores L+1L+1L+1 vertices and its deviator at each of the LLL steps; the step condition determines that deviator uniquely. Closed paths of length zero are allowed and have sum zero. The paper prints nnn, the number of players, as the upper limit of the path sum on p. 130, although its summands are indexed by path steps. The Lean definition sums over all LLL steps, as the surrounding definition and later equations require.

The four-cycle hypothesis quantifies only over simple closed paths of exactly four genuine steps. It is not replaced by all four-step walks or by cycles with null or simultaneous deviations. The goal retains all four clauses rather than only its shortest equivalence. Corollary 2.9 explicitly requires the two varying players to be distinct; this is implicit in the paper's four-corner construction. No finite-strategy assumption is imposed on Theorem 2.8, Corollary 2.9, or Lemma 2.7.

The development needs ordinary finite sums, dependent functions, coordinate updates, and finite-indexed paths. Its path and potential definitions are intended as an interface for later work. Contributions proving any of the five source-backed milestones, the goal, or the two related statements are within scope.

Selected references

  • Dov Monderer and Lloyd S. Shapley, Potential Games, Games and Economic Behavior 14 (1996), 124–143. DOI: 10.1006/game.1996.0044.
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand 2: Without a Bound on y^NV, Expanding-Projection AIM Has Regret ≤ max{b,h}(T^{δ−1/2} + T^{−1/2} + (y^NV)^{1+2/δ}/T)Research Paper

Motivation

A retailer who restocks a product every period must pick an order-up-to level without knowing the demand distribution. When a period ends with an empty shelf, the retailer records only its sales, so the true demand above the stock level is censored. The classical newsvendor solution, the critical fractile of the demand distribution, cannot be computed. Huh and Rusmevichientong (Math. Oper. Res., 2009) treat this as an online convex optimization problem: the expected one-period cost is convex in the stock level, and its derivative can be estimated without bias from the censored observation alone. Their Adaptive Inventory Management (AIM) algorithm is a projected stochastic subgradient method in the style of Zinkevich (2003) and Flaxman, Kalai and McMahan (2005). Its average expected cost converges to the newsvendor cost at rate O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​).

That analysis assumes that the manager knows an upper bound yˉ\bar yyˉ​ on the newsvendor quantity, and the algorithm projects onto [0,yˉ][0,\bar y][0,yˉ​]. This mission formalizes §3.1 of the paper, which removes the assumption. The projection interval grows with time, and the regret bound is explicit in the unknown newsvendor quantity. Earlier adaptive schemes for censored newsvendor problems include Godfrey and Powell (2001) and Burnetas and Smith (2000).

Setting

Periods are t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,…. Demands D1,D2,…D_1, D_2, \dotsD1​,D2​,… are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative random variable DDD with finite mean and distribution function FFF. Inventory is perishable: every period starts empty, so the stock level is exactly the order-up-to level. With holding cost h>0h > 0h>0 per unit left over and shortage cost b>0b > 0b>0 per unit of unmet demand, the expected one-period cost at level y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 is

Q(y)=h E[y−D]++b E[D−y]+.Q(y) = h\,E[y-D]^+ + b\,E[D-y]^+ .Q(y)=hE[y−D]++bE[D−y]+.

The newsvendor quantity is yNV=inf⁡{y≥0:F(y)≥b/(b+h)}y^{NV} = \inf\{y \ge 0 : F(y) \ge b/(b+h)\}yNV=inf{y≥0:F(y)≥b/(b+h)}, the minimizer of QQQ.

Write Bˉ=max⁡{b,h}\bar B = \max\{b,h\}Bˉ=max{b,h} and P[0,a](z)=max⁡{min⁡{z,a},0}P_{[0,a]}(z) = \max\{\min\{z,a\},0\}P[0,a]​(z)=max{min{z,a},0}. After period ttt, the manager observes whether demand fell short of the stock level and forms the signal

Ht(y)={h,Dt<y,−b,Dt≥y.H_t(y) = \begin{cases} h, & D_t < y,\\ -b, & D_t \ge y.\end{cases}Ht​(y)={h,−b,​Dt​<y,Dt​≥y.​

Fix δ∈(0,1/2)\delta \in (0, 1/2)δ∈(0,1/2). The modified AIM algorithm starts from a level y^1δ∈[0,1]\hat y^\delta_1 \in [0,1]y^​1δ​∈[0,1] and updates

y^t+1δ=P[0, tδ/2] ⁣(y^tδ−ϵtHt(y^tδ)),ϵt=1Bˉt.\hat y^\delta_{t+1} = P_{[0,\,t^{\delta/2}]}\!\left(\hat y^\delta_t - \epsilon_t H_t(\hat y^\delta_t)\right), \qquad \epsilon_t = \frac{1}{\bar B\sqrt t}.y^​t+1δ​=P[0,tδ/2]​(y^​tδ​−ϵt​Ht​(y^​tδ​)),ϵt​=Bˉt​1​.

Neither the step size nor the projection interval uses any bound on yNVy^{NV}yNV. The level y^tδ\hat y^\delta_ty^​tδ​ depends only on D1,…,Dt−1D_1, \dots, D_{t-1}D1​,…,Dt−1​, and only through the censored observations.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (p. 11)

For every δ∈(0,1/2)\delta \in (0, 1/2)δ∈(0,1/2) and every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1,

E[1T∑t=1TQ(y^tδ)]−Q(yNV)≤max⁡{b,h}[1T0.5−δ+1T0.5+(yNV)1+2/δT].E\left[\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T Q(\hat y^\delta_t)\right] - Q(y^{NV}) \le \max\{b,h\}\left[\frac{1}{T^{0.5-\delta}} + \frac{1}{T^{0.5}} + \frac{(y^{NV})^{1+2/\delta}}{T}\right].E[T1​t=1∑T​Q(y^​tδ​)]−Q(yNV)≤max{b,h}[T0.5−δ1​+T0.51​+T(yNV)1+2/δ​].

The bound holds uniformly over all demand laws with finite mean. The price of not knowing yˉ\bar yyˉ​ is the slower rate Tδ−1/2T^{\delta - 1/2}Tδ−1/2 and a transient term in which yNVy^{NV}yNV enters polynomially.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 7, p. 12)

  1. One-step inequality, the instance of Eq. (15) (Appendix A, p. 16) used in the proof. For each ttt with yNV≤tδ/2y^{NV} \le t^{\delta/2}yNV≤tδ/2,
E[Q(y^tδ)−Q(yNV)]≤E∣y^tδ−yNV∣22ϵt−E∣y^t+1δ−yNV∣22ϵt+ϵt2E∣Ht(y^tδ)∣2.E[Q(\hat y^\delta_t) - Q(y^{NV})] \le \frac{E|\hat y^\delta_t - y^{NV}|^2}{2\epsilon_t} - \frac{E|\hat y^\delta_{t+1} - y^{NV}|^2}{2\epsilon_t} + \frac{\epsilon_t}{2} E|H_t(\hat y^\delta_t)|^2 .E[Q(y^​tδ​)−Q(yNV)]≤2ϵt​E∣y^​tδ​−yNV∣2​−2ϵt​E∣y^​t+1δ​−yNV∣2​+2ϵt​​E∣Ht​(y^​tδ​)∣2.
  1. Eq. (10): early rounds, where the projection interval has not yet reached yNVy^{NV}yNV:
E[∑1≤t≤T, t<(yNV)2/δ{Q(y^tδ)−Q(yNV)}]≤Bˉ (yNV)1+2/δ.E\Big[\sum_{1 \le t \le T,\ t < (y^{NV})^{2/\delta}} \{Q(\hat y^\delta_t) - Q(y^{NV})\}\Big] \le \bar B\,(y^{NV})^{1+2/\delta}.E[1≤t≤T, t<(yNV)2/δ∑​{Q(y^​tδ​)−Q(yNV)}]≤Bˉ(yNV)1+2/δ.
  1. Eq. (11): late rounds:
E[∑1≤t≤T, t≥(yNV)2/δ{Q(y^tδ)−Q(yNV)}]≤Bˉ T0.5+δ+Bˉ T0.5.E\Big[\sum_{1 \le t \le T,\ t \ge (y^{NV})^{2/\delta}} \{Q(\hat y^\delta_t) - Q(y^{NV})\}\Big] \le \bar B\, T^{0.5+\delta} + \bar B\, T^{0.5}.E[1≤t≤T, t≥(yNV)2/δ∑​{Q(y^​tδ​)−Q(yNV)}]≤BˉT0.5+δ+BˉT0.5.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7 shows that a distribution-free, censored-data policy can be asymptotically optimal without any prior bound on the optimal stock level. The only inputs are bbb, hhh and the tuning parameter δ\deltaδ. The explicit constant separates two effects. A transient cost grows with yNVy^{NV}yNV and vanishes like 1/T1/T1/T. A steady-state rate Tδ−1/2T^{\delta-1/2}Tδ−1/2 approaches the known-bound rate T−1/2T^{-1/2}T−1/2 as δ→0\delta \to 0δ→0, at the cost of a larger transient. The expanding-projection device applies to other stochastic subgradient methods whose feasible region is unbounded.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, but as far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces the modified algorithm as an explicit function of the demand path, the per-step stochastic gradient inequality with a time-varying projection, and the two-phase regret decomposition. The per-step inequality with a varying domain is reusable for other growing-domain online methods.

Difficulty

The standard projected-gradient analysis compares every iterate with a fixed minimizer in a fixed compact set, and it bounds the telescoping distance terms by the diameter of that set. Neither applies here. In the early rounds the projection interval does not contain yNVy^{NV}yNV, so the distance to yNVy^{NV}yNV can grow from step to step. Once the interval contains yNVy^{NV}yNV, the diameter that controls the telescoping sum grows with ttt. The step sizes and the growing radii must be traded against each other through Abel summation. The bound on E[Ht(y^tδ)(y^tδ−yNV)]E[H_t(\hat y^\delta_t)(\hat y^\delta_t - y^{NV})]E[Ht​(y^​tδ​)(y^​tδ​−yNV)] needs the conditional-expectation argument that HtH_tHt​ is an unbiased subgradient of QQQ at a random point independent of DtD_tDt​. Applying the known-bound theorem with yˉ\bar yyˉ​ replaced by Tδ/2T^{\delta/2}Tδ/2 does not work, because the algorithm is not given TTT and the projection radius changes at every step.

Formalization scope

  • Demand: CappedBaseStock.DemandLaw (a probability law on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​ with finite and strictly positive mean) and the i.i.d. path demandPathLaw (Measure.infinitePi), from the published definition CappedBaseStock_Model. The path is zero-based: the paper's DtD_tDt​ is coordinate t−1t-1t−1. The positive-mean field is not needed by Theorem 7. It excludes only D=0D = 0D=0 almost surely.
  • QQQ and yNVy^{NV}yNV: backorderCost and newsvendorLevel from the published definition LostSalesOrderUpTo.Asymptotic.Backorder. Real levels are passed through Real.toNNReal, and the levels involved are always nonnegative.
  • The algorithm modAimTarget δ b h ŷ₁ d t is a deterministic recursion on the demand path, and expectations are Bochner integrals over the path measure. All integrands are bounded and measurable, so no non-integrability default enters.
  • Explicit readings of the paper's loose phrases:
    • the first level, which the paper leaves unspecified, is assumed to satisfy y^1δ∈[0,1]\hat y^\delta_1 \in [0,1]y^​1δ​∈[0,1]; the theorem fails without it;
    • 0<b0 < b0<b and 0<h0 < h0<h are assumed;
    • the sums in (10) and (11) are restricted to 1≤t≤T1 \le t \le T1≤t≤T;
    • when yNV=0y^{NV} = 0yNV=0, the sum in (11) starts at t=1t = 1t=1;
    • all powers are real powers, with 0p=00^p = 00p=0 for p>0p > 0p>0;
    • "the manager does not know any upper bound" is not a hypothesis, because the algorithm uses none.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The statements concern the algorithm's own iterates, not an arbitrary sequence of levels. The constants are the printed ones. The hypotheses are satisfiable, for example with y^1δ=0\hat y^\delta_1 = 0y^​1δ​=0.
  • Useful contributions:
    • convexity and Lipschitz continuity of QQQ with constant max⁡{b,h}\max\{b,h\}max{b,h};
    • the subgradient identity E[Ht(y)]=(b+h)F(y−)−bE[H_t(y)] = (b+h)F(y^-) - bE[Ht​(y)]=(b+h)F(y−)−b;
    • measurability and boundedness of the iterates;
    • independence of DtD_tDt​ from y^tδ\hat y^\delta_ty^​tδ​ under the product measure;
    • the projected-step inequality.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh and P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 34(1), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://www.aaai.org/Papers/ICML/2003/ICML03-120.pdf
  • A. D. Flaxman, A. T. Kalai and H. B. McMahan, Online Convex Optimization in the Bandit Setting: Gradient Descent without a Gradient, SODA 2005. https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0408007
  • G. A. Godfrey and W. B. Powell, An Adaptive, Distribution-Free Algorithm for the Newsvendor Problem with Censored Demands, Management Science 47(8), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.8.1101.10231
  • A. N. Burnetas and C. E. Smith, Adaptive Ordering and Pricing for Perishable Products, Operations Research 48(3), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.48.3.436.12437
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CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation 3: The Partition Job Shop on Two Machines Has a Schedule of Finish Time 5T, Preemptive or Not, Iff a Partition ExistsResearch Paper

Motivation

A job shop is the basic model of a factory floor in which every job follows its own route through the machines. Minimizing the time at which the last job is finished (the finish time, or makespan) is one of the central problems of deterministic scheduling theory, and the question of which special cases admit efficient algorithms has organized much of the field since the 1950s.

For two machines the picture is sharp. Jackson (1956) showed that a two-machine job shop in which every job has at most two operations is solved by a simple rule extending Johnson's flow-shop algorithm (Jackson, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3, 1956; Conway, Maxwell and Miller, Theory of Scheduling, 1967, p. 105). Once a single job may have three operations, the non-preemptive problem becomes NP-complete: Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Brucker showed this for n−1n-1n−1 jobs with one nonzero task each and one job with three (Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977; a 1975 Mathematisch Centrum report is the paper's reference [1]). Gonzalez and Sahni (Operations Research 26(1), 1978) extended this boundary to preemptive schedules, in which a task may be interrupted and resumed later: even then the two-machine problem is NP-complete, already when only two jobs have three nonzero tasks. This mission formalizes that reduction, Lemma 5 together with Corollary 2 of their paper.

Timeline:

  • 1956: Jackson, two-machine job shop with at most two operations per job, solved in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn).
  • 1975/1977: Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Brucker, the non-preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete with n−1n-1n−1 one-task jobs and one three-task job.
  • 1976: Garey, Johnson and Sethi, the non-preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete even when problem size is measured by the sum of the task lengths (Mathematics of Operations Research 1, 1976).
  • 1978: Gonzalez and Sahni, the preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete (Lemmas 5 and 6), and the non-preemptive case again by the same reduction (Corollary 2).

Setting

A job shop has processors P1,…,PmP_1, \dots, P_mP1​,…,Pm​ and jobs 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n. Job iii is a finite sequence of tasks; task jjj of job iii must be processed on a given processor kkk for tk,i,j≥0t_{k,i,j} \ge 0tk,i,j​≥0 time units, and for every job, task j≥2j \ge 2j≥2 can begin only after task j−1j-1j−1 has been completed. Schedules start at time 000. A preemptive schedule assigns to every task a finite set of time intervals [s,f)[s, f)[s,f) on its processor, of total length tk,i,jt_{k,i,j}tk,i,j​, such that intervals on the same processor do not overlap and every interval of task jjj begins after task j−1j-1j−1 of the same job is completed. A non-preemptive schedule processes each task in a single interval. If fi(S)f_i(S)fi​(S) is the time at which job iii is completed, the finish time is FT(S)=max⁡ifi(S)\mathrm{FT}(S) = \max_i f_i(S)FT(S)=maxi​fi​(S).

PARTITION: a multiset {a1,…,an}\{a_1, \dots, a_n\}{a1​,…,an​} of nonnegative integers has a partition if some index set uuu satisfies ∑i∈uai=12∑i=1nai\sum_{i \in u} a_i = \tfrac12 \sum_{i=1}^n a_i∑i∈u​ai​=21​∑i=1n​ai​.

From a1,…,ana_1, \dots, a_na1​,…,an​, with T=∑iaiT = \sum_i a_iT=∑i​ai​, the paper builds the two-processor job shop JS\mathrm{JS}JS with n+2n+2n+2 jobs:

  • job i≤ni \le ni≤n: tasks (P2,ai)(P_2, a_i)(P2​,ai​), (P1,ai)(P_1, a_i)(P1​,ai​);
  • job n+1n+1n+1: tasks (P1,T/2)(P_1, T/2)(P1​,T/2), (P2,T/2)(P_2, T/2)(P2​,T/2), (P1,3T)(P_1, 3T)(P1​,3T);
  • job n+2n+2n+2: tasks (P2,3T)(P_2, 3T)(P2​,3T), (P1,T/2)(P_1, T/2)(P1​,T/2), (P2,T/2)(P_2, T/2)(P2​,T/2).

Each processor carries load exactly 5T5T5T. In Lean, the instance is JS a : JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance 2 (n + 2), a schedule is S : Schedule (JS a) (a finite set of pieces), and the predicates are S.IsPreemptive, S.IsNonPreemptive and S.FinishedBy (5 * T a).

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 5 and Corollary 2

For every nnn and every a:Fin n→Na : \mathrm{Fin}\,n \to \mathbb Na:Finn→N,

(∃ S preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)  ⟺  Partition(a)and(∃ S non-preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)  ⟺  Partition(a).\bigl(\exists\, S \text{ preemptive},\ \mathrm{FT}(S) \le 5T\bigr) \iff \mathrm{Partition}(a) \quad\text{and}\quad \bigl(\exists\, S \text{ non-preemptive},\ \mathrm{FT}(S) \le 5T\bigr) \iff \mathrm{Partition}(a).(∃S preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)⟺Partition(a)and(∃S non-preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)⟺Partition(a).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5(a): a partition yields a non-preemptive schedule of finish time exactly 5T5T5T (the paper's Figure 3).
  2. Observations (i)–(ii) in the proof of Lemma 5(b): in any preemptive schedule with FT≤5T\mathrm{FT} \le 5TFT≤5T, task t2,n+1,2t_{2,n+1,2}t2,n+1,2​ is completed by 2T2T2T and t2,n+2,1t_{2,n+2,1}t2,n+2,1​ by 4T4T4T; no part of t1,n+1,3t_{1,n+1,3}t1,n+1,3​ runs before TTT and no part of t1,n+2,2t_{1,n+2,2}t1,n+2,2​ before 3T3T3T.
  3. Lemma 5(b): without a partition, every preemptive schedule has FT>5T\mathrm{FT} > 5TFT>5T.
  4. Lemma 5: the preemptive equivalence.
  5. Corollary 2: the non-preemptive equivalence.

Significance

The result places the boundary of tractability for two-machine job shops exactly: at most two operations per job is solvable in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn), while two jobs with three operations make the problem NP-complete, and allowing preemption does not help. The same instance serves both schedule types, because its optimum is 5T5T5T in either model exactly when a partition exists.

The theorem is classical and fully proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Formalizing it requires a precise model of preemptive schedules, which the paper treats informally, and makes explicit an argument (the "no idle time" step of Lemma 5(b)) that the paper compresses into a few sentences. The schedule model built here is shared with the other job-shop missions of this series.

Difficulty

Direction (a) is a concrete schedule and is bookkeeping. Direction (b) is the substance. The tempting argument "each processor has load 5T5T5T, so a schedule of finish time 5T5T5T has no idle time, hence some set of short jobs fills exactly [0,T/2][0, T/2][0,T/2] on P2P_2P2​" is incomplete for preemptive schedules: the short jobs may be split into many pieces spread over the whole horizon, and UUU, the set of short jobs that touch P1P_1P1​ during [0,T][0, T][0,T], is defined by pieces rather than by whole tasks. Making the counting argument rigorous requires measuring idle time on each processor across arbitrary finite unions of intervals and tying the amount of processing done on P1P_1P1​ before TTT to the completed first tasks on P2P_2P2​.

Formalization scope

  • Processing times are real numbers; the PARTITION data are natural numbers cast to R\mathbb RR; TTT is the real sum. Processors are Fin 2 with P1=0P_1 = 0P1​=0, P2=1P_2 = 1P2​=1; jobs and tasks are 0-based, so the paper's job n+1n+1n+1 is job n and job n+2n+2n+2 is job n + 1.
  • Job-shop data reuse the published JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance. Schedules are finite sets of pieces (task, start, end) with positive length, following the paper's footnote 1 (p. 40). A task of length zero has no pieces and is completed when its predecessor is; it never blocks a processor.
  • A non-preemptive schedule is a preemptive one with at most one piece per task. "Finish time ≤τ\le \tau≤τ" is ∀ j, S.jobFinish j ≤ τ; "finish time >5T> 5T>5T" is the existence of a job finishing after 5T5T5T; "finish time 5T5T5T" in Lemma 5(a) is ≤5T\le 5T≤5T together with a job finishing at exactly 5T5T5T.
  • Complexity wording not formalized. "Partition α\alphaα preemptive JOFT" and "Partition α\alphaα nonpreemptive JOFT" (polynomial reducibility), "NP-complete", and Lemma 6 ("JOFT is in NP") are not stated. What is stated is the equivalence that the paper's proofs establish for the instance they construct, with the explicit constant τ=5T\tau = 5Tτ=5T.
  • The PARTITION condition is written 2∑i∈uai=∑iai2\sum_{i\in u} a_i = \sum_i a_i2∑i∈u​ai​=∑i​ai​ in N\mathbb NN, avoiding truncated division.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the schedule notion requires every task to receive its full processing time, so the empty schedule is feasible only when T=0T = 0T=0 (and then the empty index set is a partition), and the finish-time bound is over every job, so no statement holds by an unattained supremum or a default value.
  • Welcome contributions: a proof of Lemma 5(a) by an explicit piece schedule; infrastructure for measuring busy and idle time of a processor in a finite piece schedule, reusable for Lemma 7 (mission 4) and the preemptive flow-shop missions; the proof of Lemma 5(b).

Selected references

  • T. Gonzalez, S. Sahni, Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation, Operations Research 26(1), 36–52, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.26.1.36
  • J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 343–362, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, R. Sethi, Complexity of Flow Shop and Job Shop Scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2), 117–129, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • J. R. Jackson, An Extension of Johnson's Results on Job Lot Scheduling, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3(3), 201–203, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030307
  • R. W. Conway, W. L. Maxwell, L. W. Miller, Theory of Scheduling, Addison-Wesley, 1967.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Shock Models and Wear Processes II: If the Probabilities of Surviving k Shocks Have Decreasing Successive Ratios, the Poisson Shock Life Distribution Is IHRResearch Paper

Motivation

A component may be exposed to shocks that arrive at random times. Its chance of lasting for a given time depends both on how often shocks arrive and on how likely it is to survive successive shocks. Reliability calculations often begin with the latter, discrete sequence, while replacement and life-testing questions concern the resulting lifetime distribution. Esary, Marshall, and Proschan study how a property imposed on the shock sequence appears in the continuous lifetime law. Their Theorem 3.1 gives several such inheritance results; this mission targets its increasing-hazard-rate assertion (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, Theorem 3.1).

An increasing hazard rate (IHR) means that the remaining life of a component that has survived to age ttt becomes stochastically shorter as ttt increases. This is a concrete way to express wear-out. The paper treats “increasing” as weakly increasing throughout, so a constant hazard rate is included (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, pp. 628, 631).

Setting

Shocks arrive according to a homogeneous Poisson process with rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. Let Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ be the probability that the component survives the first kkk shocks. The sequence starts at k=0k=0k=0 and satisfies 1=Pˉ0≥Pˉ1≥⋯≥01=\bar P_0\geq\bar P_1\geq\cdots\geq01=Pˉ0​≥Pˉ1​≥⋯≥0 for the target theorem. The probability of failure on the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)st shock is pk+1=Pˉk−Pˉk+1p_{k+1}=\bar P_k-\bar P_{k+1}pk+1​=Pˉk​−Pˉk+1​. At a nonnegative time ttt, the chance of exactly kkk shock arrivals is wk(t)=e−λt(λt)k/k!w_k(t)=e^{-\lambda t}(\lambda t)^k/k!wk​(t)=e−λt(λt)k/k!. The survival function of the component is therefore the Poisson mixture

Hˉ(t)=∑k=0∞Pˉkwk(t),t≥0,\bar H(t)=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}\bar P_k w_k(t),\qquad t\geq0,Hˉ(t)=k=0∑∞​Pˉk​wk​(t),t≥0,

and the paper sets Hˉ(t)=1\bar H(t)=1Hˉ(t)=1 for t<0t<0t<0. At positive times its density is h(t)=λ∑k≥0pk+1wk(t)h(t)=\lambda\sum_{k\geq0}p_{k+1}w_k(t)h(t)=λ∑k≥0​pk+1​wk​(t). The failure-on-shock sequence and the positive-time density are both part of the mission because the paper compares their shape as well (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, (2.1)–(2.3)).

A nonnegative sequence is PF₂ here when its successive ratios decrease weakly, wherever those ratios are defined. For the survival probabilities this says θk=Pˉk/Pˉk−1\theta_k=\bar P_k/\bar P_{k-1}θk​=Pˉk​/Pˉk−1​ decreases with k≥1k\geq1k≥1. A survival function is IHR when, for each x>0x>0x>0, the survival ratio Hˉ(t+x)/Hˉ(t)\bar H(t+x)/\bar H(t)Hˉ(t+x)/Hˉ(t) decreases with age ttt wherever it is defined. These are the discrete and continuous conditions connected by the target (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, Definition 2.3 and p. 631).

Formalization targets

Increasing hazard rate from PF₂ shock survival

The goal is Theorem 3.1(3.2):

(Pˉk)k≥0 is PF2⟹Hˉ is IHR.(\bar P_k)_{k\geq0}\text{ is PF}_2 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \bar H\text{ is IHR}.(Pˉk​)k≥0​ is PF2​⟹Hˉ is IHR.

It covers any nonnegative, weakly decreasing shock-survival sequence with Pˉ0=1\bar P_0=1Pˉ0​=1 and a positive Poisson rate. It does not fix a finite number of shocks or a special survival law (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, p. 632).

Density and hazard estimates

The milestone list includes the positive-time density formula (2.3), the upper bound h(t)/Hˉ(t)≤λh(t)/\bar H(t)\leq\lambdah(t)/Hˉ(t)≤λ in (2.5), the derivative estimate h′(t)≥−λh(t)h'(t)\geq-\lambda h(t)h′(t)≥−λh(t) from the proof of (3.1), and that proof's sign-change claim for h(t)−ce−θth(t)-ce^{-\theta t}h(t)−ce−θt. It culminates in Theorem 3.1(3.1), which says that PF₂ failure-on-shock probabilities give a PF₂ positive-time density. These are statements made explicitly by the authors and form the neighboring shape result and the estimates cited in the proof of the IHR goal (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, pp. 628–629, 632–633).

Further results of the paper

The mission also poses, outside the milestone list, the other inheritance results of the same section and of §6 whose formulation uses the same objects:

∑j≥kPˉj/Pˉk decreasing ⇒ H DMRL(3.3),Pˉk∑j≥0Pˉj≥∑j≥kPˉj ⇒ H NBUE(3.6),Pˉk/Pˉk−1 increasing ⇒ H DHR(Theorem 3.2 (3.8)),Sk≥0 ⇒ Hˉ IHR(Theorem 3.3),\begin{aligned} &\textstyle\sum_{j\ge k}\bar P_j/\bar P_k\ \text{decreasing}\ \Rightarrow\ H\ \text{DMRL}\quad(3.3),\qquad \bar P_k\sum_{j\ge0}\bar P_j\ge\sum_{j\ge k}\bar P_j\ \Rightarrow\ H\ \text{NBUE}\quad(3.6),\\ &\bar P_k/\bar P_{k-1}\ \text{increasing}\ \Rightarrow\ H\ \text{DHR}\quad\text{(Theorem 3.2 (3.8))},\qquad S_k\ge0\ \Rightarrow\ \bar H\ \text{IHR}\quad\text{(Theorem 3.3)}, \end{aligned}​∑j≥k​Pˉj​/Pˉk​ decreasing ⇒ H DMRL(3.3),Pˉk​∑j≥0​Pˉj​≥∑j≥k​Pˉj​ ⇒ H NBUE(3.6),Pˉk​/Pˉk−1​ increasing ⇒ H DHR(Theorem 3.2 (3.8)),Sk​≥0 ⇒ Hˉ IHR(Theorem 3.3),​

where Sk=∑j=0k(kj)[Pˉj+1Pˉk−j+1−PˉjPˉk−j+2]S_k=\sum_{j=0}^k\binom kj[\bar P_{j+1}\bar P_{k-j+1}-\bar P_j\bar P_{k-j+2}]Sk​=∑j=0k​(jk​)[Pˉj+1​Pˉk−j+1​−Pˉj​Pˉk−j+2​] is the condition of Murthy and Lientz, strictly weaker than PF₂. Theorem 6.1 specializes to independent shock magnitudes, Pˉk=∏i=1kFi(x)\bar P_k=\prod_{i=1}^kF_i(x)Pˉk​=∏i=1k​Fi​(x) (exponential, IHR or DHR as Fi(x)F_i(x)Fi​(x) is constant, decreasing or increasing in iii), and Theorem 6.2 shows that a random threshold, Pˉk=∫0∞[F(x)]k dG(x)\bar P_k=\int_0^\infty[F(x)]^k\,dG(x)Pˉk​=∫0∞​[F(x)]kdG(x), always gives a logarithmically convex density on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, pp. 632, 634, 647).

Significance

The target makes a discrete reliability assumption useful for continuous-time decisions. One may model or estimate the sequence Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ from how the component responds to successive shocks and then infer an ageing property of its lifetime under Poisson arrivals. The conclusion is about residual lifetime at every age, not just its mean or one tail probability. The companion PF₂-density statement shows that the same transfer applies to failure-on-shock probabilities and the resulting continuous density (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, Theorem 3.1).

The 1973 results are proved in the paper. In this mission the Lean statements compile as open theorems; their mathematical proofs are still to be formalized. A completed development would make the Poisson-series model, its density, and the discrete-to-continuous shape claims reusable in later formalizations of shock and wear models. The other missions in this paper's series consider cumulative damage, first passage under wear, and random thresholds using related ideas.

Difficulty

The survival function mixes infinitely many shock counts. Each count has its own time-dependent Poisson weight, so a decreasing ratio of adjacent Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ terms does not give the desired comparison of survival ratios by a termwise inequality. The paper invokes a variation-diminishing property of a totally positive Poisson kernel for the corresponding shape arguments (Esary, Marshall, and Proschan 1973, p. 633). A formal proof must also justify differentiation and rearrangement of the infinite series, including sequences that reach zero after finitely many shocks.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses real-valued functions for Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​, Hˉ\bar HHˉ, and hhh, with the shock count indexed from zero. The Poisson mixture is the definition of Hˉ\bar HHˉ; no random lifetime is introduced in place of it. The value Hˉ(t)=1\bar H(t)=1Hˉ(t)=1 for negative time follows (2.1). IHR is expressed for all real ages s≤ts\leq ts≤t by cross-multiplying the survival-ratio comparison. With Pˉ0=1\bar P_0=1Pˉ0​=1, this includes the boundary at zero without an atom there. PF₂ sequence and density conditions are also cross-multiplied. This gives the paper's ratio statements wherever denominators are positive and retains the natural zero-survival cases without using real division by zero.

The source treats Pˉk\bar P_kPˉk​ as probabilities, takes λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, and restricts variables to avoid zero denominators; Lean states the rate, nonnegativity, weak monotonicity, and the ratio convention explicitly. Formula (2.3) is represented by the derivative identity Hˉ′=−h\bar H'=-hHˉ′=−h at positive time. The bound (2.5) is h≤λHˉh\leq\lambda\bar Hh≤λHˉ, equivalent to the hazard-rate statement wherever survival is positive. The sign-change milestone excludes a strict positive–negative–positive pattern at increasing positive times, matching the authors' “at most two, in the order negative, positive, negative” wording. These conventions prevent an empty IHR statement or a trivial result caused by totalized division.

A complete proof needs reusable facts about convergence and differentiation of Poisson-weighted series and about preservation of sign patterns under the Poisson kernel. Contributions to that infrastructure, the density and hazard estimates, and the PF₂ transfer are in scope, as are the further results above. For those, the reversed classes are stated on the life-distribution domain: DHR compares ages 0≤s≤t0\le s\le t0≤s≤t only, because Theorem 3.2 allows Pˉ0<1\bar P_0<1Pˉ0​<1, an atom at the origin; a logarithmically convex density is the reversed cross-multiplied PF₂ inequality for hhh on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞). Mean residual lives and mean lives are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (they are infinite when ∑kPˉk=∞\sum_k\bar P_k=\infty∑k​Pˉk​=∞), and their ratios are taken only where Hˉ(t)>0\bar H(t)>0Hˉ(t)>0. In Theorem 6.1 only the numbers Fi(x)∈[0,1]F_i(x)\in[0,1]Fi​(x)∈[0,1] enter, and "exponential" includes the rate 000; in Theorem 6.2 the shock and threshold laws are probability measures on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0). The paper's further remark that a survival function needs Pˉk→0\bar P_k\to0Pˉk​→0 is not imposed: none of the theorems uses it.

Selected references

  • J. D. Esary, A. W. Marshall, and F. Proschan, Shock Models and Wear Processes, The Annals of Probability 1(4), 627–649, 1973. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996891.
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Vol. I, Stanford University Press, 1968 (the variation-diminishing property cited on p. 633 of the paper).
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, 1965 (IHR and DHR distributions in reliability).
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Control TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems 3: Clear-a-Fraction Policies Are Stable From Every Initial State When ρ′ₘ < 1Research Paper

Motivation

A flexible manufacturing system processes several part types on shared machines, and a machine that switches from one part type to another pays a set-up time. Real-time, distributed scheduling rules for such systems decide locally, at each machine, when to switch and to which buffer. The simplest such rules are clearing policies: a machine keeps working on its current buffer until that buffer is empty, then switches. Perkins and Kumar (IEEE TAC 34, 1989; reference [18] of Kumar–Seidman 1990) showed that every clear-a-fraction (CAF) policy, a clearing policy that always switches to a buffer holding at least a fixed fraction of the machine's work, keeps all buffers bounded in every acyclic system whenever each machine's load is below one.

Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 1990) showed that acyclicity cannot simply be dropped. In §III of the paper, a two-machine re-entrant line and a two-part-type system, both with every machine loaded below capacity, have clearing trajectories whose buffer levels grow without bound. This mission formalizes the paper's positive result for non-acyclic systems: Theorem 1, a stronger capacity condition under which every CAF policy is stable from every initial state.

Setting

There are PPP part types and MMM machines. Part type ppp enters at rate dp>0d_p>0dp​>0 and visits the machines μp,1,…,μp,np\mu_{p,1},\dots,\mu_{p,n_p}μp,1​,…,μp,np​​ in turn; revisits are allowed. At its iii-th stage a part waits in buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​ and needs processing time τp,i>0\tau_{p,i}>0τp,i​>0. Machine mmm serves Bm={bp,i:μp,i=m}B_m=\{b_{p,i}:\mu_{p,i}=m\}Bm​={bp,i​:μp,i​=m}, and switching from bbb to b′∈Bmb'\in B_mb′∈Bm​ costs δb,b′≥0\delta_{b,b'}\ge0δb,b′​≥0. Flows are fluid. The level xb(t)≥0x_b(t)\ge0xb​(t)≥0 satisfies xb(t)=xb(0)+ub(t)−yb(t)x_b(t)=x_b(0)+u_b(t)-y_b(t)xb​(t)=xb​(0)+ub​(t)−yb​(t), where yby_byb​ is the cumulative output and ubu_bub​ the cumulative input: dptd_p tdp​t for the first buffer of a route, the output of the previous buffer otherwise. Each machine works through runs. A run is a set-up for a buffer, during which nothing is processed, followed by processing of that buffer at rate at most 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​, and at exactly that rate while the buffer is nonempty.

A trajectory is clearing (Definition 1) if each machine leaves its buffer exactly at the first time the buffer is empty while another of its buffers is nonempty, and then sets up for such a buffer. It is CAF with constants εm>0\varepsilon_m>0εm​>0, KmK_mKm​ (Definition 2) if every set-up commenced at time ttt is for a buffer with

xp,i(t) ≥ εm∑(q,j): μq,j=mxq,j(t)−Km.x_{p,i}(t)\ \ge\ \varepsilon_m\sum_{(q,j):\,\mu_{q,j}=m}x_{q,j}(t)-K_m .xp,i​(t) ≥ εm​(q,j):μq,j​=m∑​xq,j​(t)−Km​.

A trajectory is stable if sup⁡t≥0xp,i(t)<∞\sup_{t\ge0}x_{p,i}(t)<\inftysupt≥0​xp,i​(t)<∞ for every buffer.

The graph on machines has an arc m→m′m\to m'm→m′ when m≠m′m\ne m'm=m′ and some part type visits m′m'm′ right after mmm. Machines are diconnected, m↔m′m\leftrightarrow m'm↔m′, when each is reachable from the other. For each buffer, λp,i\lambda_{p,i}λp,i​ is the last earlier stage at a different machine, if any, and πp,i\pi_{p,i}πp,i​ is that stage's machine, the prior machine. The modified input rate is dp,i′=1/τp,λp,id'_{p,i}=1/\tau_{p,\lambda_{p,i}}dp,i′​=1/τp,λp,i​​ if πp,i↔μp,i\pi_{p,i}\leftrightarrow\mu_{p,i}πp,i​↔μp,i​, and dp,i′=dpd'_{p,i}=d_pdp,i′​=dp​ otherwise (11)–(13).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 294)

If

ρm′:=∑(p,i): μp,i=mdp,i′ τp,i<1for all m,(14)\rho'_m:=\sum_{(p,i):\,\mu_{p,i}=m}d'_{p,i}\,\tau_{p,i}<1\qquad\text{for all } m, \tag{14}ρm′​:=(p,i):μp,i​=m∑​dp,i′​τp,i​<1for all m,(14)

then for all ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, all KKK, every CAF trajectory from every initial state is stable. The bound on each buffer may depend on the trajectory.

Milestones (the proof's own steps, p. 295)

For a machine mmm in a minimal class, Vm(t)=∑μp,i=mxp,i(t)[τp,i+⋯+τp,i+ηp,i−1]V_m(t)=\sum_{\mu_{p,i}=m}x_{p,i}(t)[\tau_{p,i}+\dots+\tau_{p,i+\eta_{p,i}-1}]Vm​(t)=∑μp,i​=m​xp,i​(t)[τp,i​+⋯+τp,i+ηp,i​−1​] is the work at mmm (15), and Tn,Tn+1T_n, T_{n+1}Tn​,Tn+1​ are consecutive set-up commencements:

  1. (18): Vm(Tn+1)≤max⁡[0,Vm(Tn)−(1−ρm′)(Tn+1−Tn)+δˉ]V_m(T_{n+1})\le\max[0,V_m(T_n)-(1-\rho'_m)(T_{n+1}-T_n)+\bar\delta]Vm​(Tn+1​)≤max[0,Vm​(Tn​)−(1−ρm′​)(Tn+1​−Tn​)+δˉ].
  2. (20): xpn∗,in∗(Tn)≥2δˉ/((1−ρm′)τpn∗,in∗)⇒Tn+1−Tn≥2δˉ/(1−ρm′)x_{p^*_n,i^*_n}(T_n)\ge 2\bar\delta/((1-\rho'_m)\tau_{p^*_n,i^*_n})\Rightarrow T_{n+1}-T_n\ge2\bar\delta/(1-\rho'_m)xpn∗​,in∗​​(Tn​)≥2δˉ/((1−ρm′​)τpn∗​,in∗​​)⇒Tn+1​−Tn​≥2δˉ/(1−ρm′​).
  3. Vm(Tn)≥Γm⇒Vm(Tn+1)≤Vm(Tn)−δˉV_m(T_n)\ge\Gamma_m\Rightarrow V_m(T_{n+1})\le V_m(T_n)-\bar\deltaVm​(Tn​)≥Γm​⇒Vm​(Tn+1​)≤Vm​(Tn​)−δˉ, with the explicit Γm\Gamma_mΓm​ of p. 295.
  4. Every buffer of every machine in a minimal class is bounded.
  5. The induction step: with upstream classes bounded, Vm(Tn+1)≤max⁡{Γˉ,Vm(Tn)−(1−ρm′)(Tn+1−Tn)+δˉ+Γˉ}V_m(T_{n+1})\le\max\{\bar\Gamma,V_m(T_n)-(1-\rho'_m)(T_{n+1}-T_n)+\bar\delta+\bar\Gamma\}Vm​(Tn+1​)≤max{Γˉ,Vm​(Tn​)−(1−ρm′​)(Tn+1​−Tn​)+δˉ+Γˉ}.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 is a sufficient condition for stability that holds for every system topology and every CAF policy, with no restriction to acyclic flows. It separates two kinds of upstream supply. A machine that is not in a common cycle with its supplier needs capacity only for the average rate dpd_pdp​. A machine that is in such a cycle must budget for the supplier's peak rate. The paper's examples show that some strengthening of ρm<1\rho_m<1ρm​<1 is needed for clearing policies on cyclic systems: they are unstable under ρm<1\rho_m<1ρm​<1 alone. Section V of the paper builds on this gap, with a supervisory mechanism that restores stability under ρm<1\rho_m<1ρm​<1 alone.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. A formalization must turn a two-page argument with a set-up/processing run structure, a starvation case analysis and an induction over the condensation of a directed graph into rigorous statements. The result is a reusable fluid model of scheduling with set-up times. It also makes explicit the conventions of the clearing rule, which the paper leaves informal.

Difficulty

A natural first attempt bounds the total work VmV_mVm​ at each machine separately, using only the average arrival rates. This fails on cyclic systems. A machine downstream in a cycle can receive parts in bursts at the upstream machine's full processing rate 1/τ1/\tau1/τ, far above dpd_pdp​; Example 1 of the paper builds exactly such a positive feedback. The proof therefore has to (a) bound the inflow into a machine of a minimal class by the peak rates in (14); (b) handle starvation inside a run, where the machine works below its maximal rate; (c) control the set-up overhead, which the CAF rule amortizes by forcing long runs once VmV_mVm​ is large; and (d) push boundedness down the partial order of classes, where the bounded upstream buffers enter as an additive constant Γˉ\bar\GammaΓˉ. Step (d) needs a bound on the total content upstream, not one per buffer.

Formalization scope

  • Model. System P M holds the data. Part types, machines and stages are 0-based (paper stage iii is Lean stage i−1i-1i−1). Trajectory S holds levels, cumulative outputs and runs, with N m : ℕ∞ runs per machine. Time is real, with explicit t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Run starts are nondecreasing and, if infinitely many, tend to infinity. Machines never idle outside runs: idling on an empty buffer is processing at the inflow rate.
  • Processing law. The output is bounded by 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ times the Lebesgue measure of the time spent processing bbb, with equality on intervals of processing of a nonempty buffer.
  • Clearing. "Nonempty" in Definition 1 for the buffer switched to is read as nonempty or with inflow starting now. Under this reading the paper's example trajectories are clearing trajectories; read literally, "the first time" would not exist. The emptiness test on the current buffer is literal. The no-early-exit condition holds on the open processing interval.
  • Set-ups. Set-ups occur only between distinct buffers. δˉ\bar\deltaδˉ is the largest set-up time between distinct buffers of mmm, or 000 if there are none. Zero set-up times are allowed; δˉ>0\bar\delta>0δˉ>0 is not assumed.
  • Constants. Γm\Gamma_mΓm​, τˉ\bar\tauτˉ, τ‾\underline\tauτ​, Γˉ\bar\GammaΓˉ are explicit definitions, never existentials. Every denominator is positive under the hypotheses.
  • Trivializations ruled out. The trajectory class is not empty: a sorry-free witness (one machine, one buffer, dτ<1d\tau<1dτ<1, any initial level) satisfies every predicate, together with (14). The goal quantifies over every system, every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and KKK, and every CAF trajectory. It does not fix a selection rule, an acyclic topology, routes without revisits or positive set-ups.
  • Infrastructure. Continuity of the levels (from the rate cap), restarting a trajectory at a run start, inflow bounds via conservation along routes, and the condensation of the machine graph. These are reusable for the related Kumar–Seidman missions on instability and supervisory stabilization. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3), 289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. R. Perkins and P. R. Kumar, Stable, distributed, real-time scheduling of flexible manufacturing/assembly/disassembly systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 34, 139–148, February 1989 (cited as [18] in Kumar–Seidman 1990; the CAF stability result for acyclic systems).
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonlinear Proximal Point Algorithms Using Bregman Functions, with Applications to Convex Programming 4: Nonquadratic Multiplier Methods for Inequality Constraints Find an Optimal MultiplierResearch Paper

Motivation

Convex programs with inequality constraints arise when a decision must meet capacity, resource, or performance limits. Their Lagrange multipliers assign a price to each constraint. Finding an optimal multiplier gives a dual certificate and can guide a primal optimization method. Classical quadratic multiplier methods update these prices through a particular penalty. Eckstein's 1993 paper places a broader family of multiplier updates inside the theory of Bregman proximal point algorithms, allowing a nonquadratic function to shape each step (Eckstein 1993, §4.2).

The result here concerns the inequality constrained case, where multiplier vectors must be componentwise nonnegative. Eckstein identifies a monotone conjugate that incorporates this restriction into the primal penalty and proves that the resulting multiplier sequence converges to an optimal multiplier when one exists. The paper also studies primal limit points and the behavior when no optimal multiplier exists (Eckstein 1993, Theorem 7 and proof, pp. 216–219).

Setting

Let C⊆RnC\subseteq\mathbb R^nC⊆Rn be closed, nonempty, and convex. Let f,g1,…,gmf,g_1,\ldots,g_mf,g1​,…,gm​ be proper lower semicontinuous convex functions, finite on CCC. The primal problem is to minimize f(x)f(x)f(x) over x∈Cx\in Cx∈C subject to gi(x)≤0g_i(x)\le 0gi​(x)≤0 for every iii. Write g(x)=(g1(x),…,gm(x))g(x)=(g_1(x),\ldots,g_m(x))g(x)=(g1​(x),…,gm​(x)). A point solves the problem only when it lies in CCC, satisfies every inequality, and has no larger objective value than any other feasible point.

For a nonnegative multiplier ppp, the dual functional is d(p)=inf⁡x∈C{f(x)+⟨p,g(x)⟩}d(p)=\inf_{x\in C}\{f(x)+\langle p,g(x)\rangle\}d(p)=infx∈C​{f(x)+⟨p,g(x)⟩}; it equals −∞-\infty−∞ outside the nonnegative orthant. A multiplier p∗p^*p∗ is optimal when it maximizes ddd. The standing assumption that ddd is not identically −∞-\infty−∞ makes this dual functional a meaningful proper concave object (Eckstein 1993, p. 215).

A Bregman function hhh has an open zone SSS. It is continuously differentiable there, strictly convex and continuous on S‾\overline SS, and satisfies the boundedness and sequential conditions of Definition 1. Its Bregman distance is Dh(u,v)=h(u)−h(v)−⟨∇h(v),u−v⟩D_h(u,v)=h(u)-h(v)-\langle\nabla h(v),u-v\rangleDh​(u,v)=h(u)−h(v)−⟨∇h(v),u−v⟩, with u∈S‾u\in\overline Su∈S and v∈Sv\in Sv∈S. The zone contains the strict positive orthant, and the image of its gradient contains that orthant. Its monotone conjugate is h∗+(z)=sup⁡p≥0{⟨p,z⟩−h(p)}h^{*+}(z)=\sup_{p\ge0}\{\langle p,z\rangle-h(p)\}h∗+(z)=supp≥0​{⟨p,z⟩−h(p)}. Lemma 3 establishes that this function is finite and differentiable everywhere under these assumptions (Eckstein 1993, pp. 205, 215–216).

Given positive step sizes ckc_kck​ bounded away from zero, recursion (11) chooses xk+1x^{k+1}xk+1 as a minimizer over CCC of f(x)+ck−1h∗+(∇h(pk)+ckg(x))f(x)+c_k^{-1}h^{*+}(\nabla h(p^k)+c_kg(x))f(x)+ck−1​h∗+(∇h(pk)+ck​g(x)), then sets pk+1=∇h∗+(∇h(pk)+ckg(xk+1))p^{k+1}=\nabla h^{*+}(\nabla h(p^k)+c_kg(x^{k+1}))pk+1=∇h∗+(∇h(pk)+ck​g(xk+1)). The theorem assumes an infinite sequence conforming to these recursions; it does not assert that each minimizer exists for arbitrary data.

Formalization targets

Multiplier convergence

The goal is Eckstein's Theorem 7. If the dual problem has an optimal multiplier, then the multiplier sequence converges to one:

∃p∗∈argmax⁡dsuch thatpk⟶p∗.\exists p^*\in\operatorname*{argmax}d\quad\text{such that}\quad p^k\longrightarrow p^*.∃p∗∈argmaxdsuch thatpk⟶p∗.

When every gig_igi​ is continuous on CCC and SSS contains the closed nonnegative orthant, each subsequential limit of the primal iterates solves the constrained problem. Under the same zone condition, the multiplier sequence is unbounded if the dual has no optimal multiplier. The printed theorem says “if (10) has no solution” in this last clause; its proof on p. 218 establishes the no-optimal-multiplier condition, which is the version formalized here.

Supporting targets

The milestones include the representations of h∗+h^{*+}h∗+ in Lemma 2, the appendix results governing recession directions and the monotone conjugate, Lemma 3's global finiteness and differentiability, the subdifferential chain rule, and the Bregman proximal point result of Theorem 1. They also capture the paper's claims that recursion (11) is a Bregman proximal point run for ∂(−d)\partial(-d)∂(−d) and that primal limit points meet the feasibility, complementarity, and Lagrangian conditions.

Significance

The theorem supplies a convergence guarantee for nonquadratic methods of multipliers with inequality constraints. It separates the dual conclusion, which uses the strict positive orthant condition, from the primal limit and unboundedness conclusions, which additionally require the closed orthant to lie in the zone. This distinction lets a Bregman function whose zone excludes boundary points still yield dual convergence when optimal multipliers exist (Eckstein 1993, Theorem 7, pp. 216–218).

Eckstein proved this theorem on paper. The mission asks for machine checked proofs of its precise statements and the supporting results; the draft statements compile but their proofs remain open. A completed development would also provide reusable finite dimensional infrastructure for extended-real convex functions, monotone conjugates, Bregman distances, and convex-analytic multiplier conditions.

Difficulty

A direct appeal to ordinary proximal point convergence does not identify the update in (11) as a proximal step: the primal minimization uses h∗+h^{*+}h∗+, whereas the operator of interest is the subdifferential of the negative dual functional. The nonnegative orthant also introduces boundary behavior absent from the equality constrained case. The link requires precise conjugacy and subdifferential statements, including a globally finite monotone conjugate, before Theorem 1 can apply (Eckstein 1993, pp. 215–218). For primal limit points, the issue is to pass from optimality of each primal subproblem to feasibility, complementarity, and minimization of the limiting Lagrangian.

Formalization scope

Lean uses finite dimensional real inner product spaces for the general proximal point theorem and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) for the primal and multiplier spaces. Functions that the paper regards as extended-valued are represented by EReal; their properness excludes −∞-\infty−∞. The infimum defining ddd and the supremum defining h∗+h^{*+}h∗+ remain extended-real operations, so an infinite value cannot silently become zero. Real values are extracted from h∗+h^{*+}h∗+ in recursion (11) only because Lemma 3 asserts finiteness everywhere.

The real function hhh is total in Lean but constrained only on S‾\overline SS; its gradient is evaluated only at points in SSS. Every multiplier iterate is explicitly in SSS. The initial primal value x0x^0x0 is unused by recursion (11). The Bregman proximal point recursion is represented by its equivalent inclusion (4), and a “limit point” is a subsequential limit. The sequential condition (vi) of Definition 1 is stated for xk∈S‾x^k\in\overline Sxk∈S, the natural first-argument domain of DhD_hDh​. The Appendix's essential strict convexity means strict convexity on convex subsets of the subdifferential domain. Its recession direction uses the stated limit inferior condition.

Lemma A4's printed unconditional claim that its composite GGG is proper lacks a finite-value witness. The formal statement keeps convexity of GGG unconditional and states properness at a point x0x_0x0​ where all inner functions and the outer function are finite; differentiability of the outer function there is expressed with local finiteness of its extended-real value. At a zero coefficient, its corresponding subgradient term contributes zero without requiring a subgradient to exist. These conditions expose rather than hide the domain issue. The formulation rules out an arbitrary multiplier sequence, an all-space supremum, or a minimization over infeasible points. Contributions proving the milestones, improving shared convex analysis libraries, and checking the boundary conventions are welcome.

Selected references

  • Jonathan Eckstein, Nonlinear proximal point algorithms using Bregman functions, with applications to convex programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(1), 202–226, 1993. DOI:10.1287/moor.18.1.202.
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Dynamical SystemsProbabilityRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Subadditive Ergodic Theory 5: For a Stationary Sequence in a Banach Algebra with E(log‖Y₁‖)⁺ < ∞, n⁻¹ log‖Y₁⋯Y_n‖ Converges in [−∞, ∞)Research Paper

Motivation

Products of random linear operators appear wherever a system evolves by repeated application of randomly chosen linear maps: linear recursions with random coefficients, products of random matrices in statistical physics, the growth of random dynamical systems, and population models in random environments. The basic question is the exponential growth rate of the product Y1Y2⋯YnY_1Y_2\cdots Y_nY1​Y2​⋯Yn​. For square matrices, Furstenberg and Kesten (Ann. Math. Statist. 31, 1960) proved that n−1log⁡∥Y1⋯Yn∥n^{-1}\log\|Y_1\cdots Y_n\|n−1log∥Y1​⋯Yn​∥ converges for stationary sequences with a logarithmic moment condition.

Kingman (Subadditive ergodic theory, Ann. Probab. 1(6):883–899, 1973) showed that this limit theorem is an instance of the subadditive ergodic theorem, and that the instance needs nothing of matrices beyond the norm inequality ∥AB∥≤∥A∥ ∥B∥\|AB\|\le\|A\|\,\|B\|∥AB∥≤∥A∥∥B∥. His Theorem 6 therefore holds in an arbitrary real or complex Banach algebra, including infinite-dimensional ones such as infinite matrices with finite ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm. It is the source of what later became known as the top Lyapunov exponent of a stationary random operator product.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space. A two-parameter family is a collection x=(xst)x=(x_{st})x=(xst​) of random variables indexed by nonnegative integers s<ts<ts<t. Kingman's conditions (§1.1–1.2) are:

  • S₁: xsu≤xst+xtux_{su}\le x_{st}+x_{tu}xsu​≤xst​+xtu​ whenever s<t<us<t<us<t<u;
  • S₂: the joint distributions of (xs+1,t+1)(x_{s+1,t+1})(xs+1,t+1​) are the same as those of (xst)(x_{st})(xst​);
  • S₃: gt=E(x0t)g_t=E(x_{0t})gt​=E(x0t​) is finite for every t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and gt≥−Atg_t\ge -Atgt​≥−At for some constant AAA;
  • S₃′: E(x01+)<∞E(x_{01}^+)<\inftyE(x01+​)<∞, where x+=max⁡(x,0)x^+=\max(x,0)x+=max(x,0).

A family of real random variables satisfying S₁, S₂ and S₃ is a subadditive process. Kingman's Theorem 1 (the goal of the first mission of this series) says that for a subadditive process x0t/tx_{0t}/tx0t​/t converges almost surely and in mean to a finite random variable ξ\xiξ with E(ξ)=γ=inf⁡t≥1gt/tE(\xi)=\gamma=\inf_{t\ge1}g_t/tE(ξ)=γ=inft≥1​gt​/t.

A Banach algebra B\mathfrak BB is a complete normed algebra over R\mathbb RR or C\mathbb CC whose norm satisfies ∥AB∥≤∥A∥ ∥B∥\|AB\|\le\|A\|\,\|B\|∥AB∥≤∥A∥∥B∥. A sequence (Yn)n≥1(Y_n)_{n\ge1}(Yn​)n≥1​ of B\mathfrak BB-valued random elements is stationary if (Yn+1)n≥1(Y_{n+1})_{n\ge1}(Yn+1​)n≥1​ and (Yn)n≥1(Y_n)_{n\ge1}(Yn​)n≥1​ have the same joint law. The log-norm process is

xst=log⁡∥Ys+1Ys+2⋯Yt∥∈[−∞,∞),s<t,x_{st}=\log\|Y_{s+1}Y_{s+2}\cdots Y_t\|\in[-\infty,\infty),\qquad s<t,xst​=log∥Ys+1​Ys+2​⋯Yt​∥∈[−∞,∞),s<t,

with log⁡0=−∞\log 0=-\inftylog0=−∞. Expectations of [−∞,∞)[-\infty,\infty)[−∞,∞)-valued variables are extended expectations E(f)=∫f+ dP−∫f− dPE(f)=\int f^+\,dP-\int f^-\,dPE(f)=∫f+dP−∫f−dP, defined when ∫f+ dP<∞\int f^+\,dP<\infty∫f+dP<∞ and possibly equal to −∞-\infty−∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 893)

If (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) is a stationary sequence in a real or complex Banach algebra and E{(log⁡∥Y1∥)+}<∞E\{(\log\|Y_1\|)^+\}<\inftyE{(log∥Y1​∥)+}<∞, then

ξ=lim⁡n→∞n−1log⁡∥Y1Y2⋯Yn∥\xi=\lim_{n\to\infty}n^{-1}\log\|Y_1Y_2\cdots Y_n\|ξ=n→∞lim​n−1log∥Y1​Y2​⋯Yn​∥

exists in −∞≤ξ<∞-\infty\le\xi<\infty−∞≤ξ<∞ with probability one, and

E(ξ)=lim⁡n→∞n−1E{log⁡∥Y1Y2⋯Yn∥}.E(\xi)=\lim_{n\to\infty}n^{-1}E\{\log\|Y_1Y_2\cdots Y_n\|\}.E(ξ)=n→∞lim​n−1E{log∥Y1​Y2​⋯Yn​∥}.

The goal fixes no constant and no ergodicity assumption: ξ\xiξ is in general a non-degenerate random variable.

Milestones

  1. (1.2.7), p. 885: under S₁, S₂ and S₃′, E(xst+)<∞E(x_{st}^+)<\inftyE(xst+​)<∞ for all s<ts<ts<t.
  2. Proof of Theorem 2, p. 886: the truncation xst(N)=max⁡(xst,−N(t−s))x^{(N)}_{st}=\max(x_{st},-N(t-s))xst(N)​=max(xst​,−N(t−s)) is a subadditive process for every positive integer NNN.
  3. Theorem 2, p. 885: if xxx satisfies S₁, S₂ and S₃′ but not S₃, then ξ=lim⁡x0t/t\xi=\lim x_{0t}/tξ=limx0t​/t exists with probability one in [−∞,∞)[-\infty,\infty)[−∞,∞) and E(ξ)=−∞E(\xi)=-\inftyE(ξ)=−∞.
  4. Proof of Theorem 6, p. 893: the log-norm process satisfies S₁, S₂ and S₃′.

Significance

Theorem 6 defines a stochastic spectral radius: if every YnY_nYn​ equals a fixed element yyy, then eξe^\xieξ is the spectral radius of yyy by Gelfand's formula, and for independent YnY_nYn​ with common law π\piπ the limit is a constant ρ(π)\rho(\pi)ρ(π) depending only on π\piπ. For k×kk\times kk×k matrices the theorem reduces to the Furstenberg–Kesten theorem. Theorem 2, the extension of the subadditive ergodic theorem from S₃ to S₃′, is the form needed whenever a process can have mean growth rate −∞-\infty−∞, as happens for products that can vanish or contract superlinearly; it is used well beyond random products.

All results here are proved on paper (Kingman 1973, building on his 1968 paper). None of them is machine-checked: Mathlib has no subadditive ergodic theorem, no Furstenberg–Kesten theorem and no random-product limit in normed algebras. The platform poses an ergodic, constant-limit form of Kingman's theorem (PalmQueueing.Ergodic.kingman_subadditive, open); this mission's Theorem 2 is a different statement (non-ergodic, conclusion E(ξ)=−∞E(\xi)=-\inftyE(ξ)=−∞ under failure of S₃). A complete development would give the first formal proof of the Furstenberg–Kesten limit, in the generality of Banach algebras.

Difficulty

Theorem 6 is short given Theorems 1 and 2, but the obvious one-line reduction to Theorem 1 fails in two places. First, the log-norm process can take the value −∞-\infty−∞ and its means gtg_tgt​ can be −∞-\infty−∞ or decrease superlinearly, so condition S₃ fails and Theorem 1 does not apply; the case E(ξ)=−∞E(\xi)=-\inftyE(ξ)=−∞ is a separate theorem (Theorem 2), whose proof must exchange a limit in ttt with a limit in an auxiliary parameter. Second, stationarity of the log-norm process (S₂) is a statement about joint laws on a path space; in a non-separable Banach algebra, multiplication need not be measurable for the product σ\sigmaσ-algebra on B×B\mathfrak B\times\mathfrak BB×B, so it is not automatic that the law of (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) determines the joint law of the products Ys+1⋯YtY_{s+1}\cdots Y_tYs+1​⋯Yt​. The main dependency, Theorem 1 itself, is the subject of a separate mission and is not restated here.

Formalization scope

The Lean development fixes these conventions:

  • Families are functions x : ℕ → ℕ → Ω → β; only pairs s<ts<ts<t enter any condition. S₁ is required almost surely for each triple (the weaker hypothesis); the log-norm milestone proves it at every sample point.
  • S₂ and stationarity are equalities of laws of the whole path (Measure.map) on the product σ\sigmaσ-algebra, not equality of one-dimensional marginals.
  • S₃′ and all positive parts are lower Lebesgue integrals; expectations that may be −∞-\infty−∞ are computed as ∫f+−∫f−\int f^+ - \int f^-∫f+−∫f− in EReal, never as Bochner integrals (which return 000 for non-integrable functions).
  • log⁡∥⋅∥\log\|\cdot\|log∥⋅∥ is ENNReal.log of the norm, so log⁡∥0∥=−∞\log\|0\|=-\inftylog∥0∥=−∞; Real.log 0 = 0 would replace a vanishing product's growth rate −∞-\infty−∞ by 000, and is ruled out.
  • B\mathfrak BB is a complete unital NormedRing with NormedAlgebra 𝕜 𝔅, RCLike 𝕜. Each YnY_nYn​ is strongly measurable; B\mathfrak BB is not assumed separable.
  • Limits are Filter.atTop on ℕ in the topology of EReal; the conclusions assert ξ<∞\xi<\inftyξ<∞ almost surely, E(ξ+)<∞E(\xi^+)<\inftyE(ξ+)<∞, and, for (2.3.5), both the existence of the limit of means and its value.

A formalization that replaces the extended logarithm by Real.log, or the extended expectation by a Bochner integral, makes the statement false or trivially different, and is excluded.

Reusable infrastructure: extended expectations of EReal-valued random variables, joint-law stationarity of sequences and two-parameter families, and the truncation lemma for S₃′ processes. Contributions toward Theorem 1 (mission 1 of this series), toward measurability of products of strongly measurable random elements, and toward the milestones in any order are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. F. C. Kingman, Subadditive ergodic theory, Ann. Probab. 1(6):883–899, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996798
  • J. F. C. Kingman, The ergodic theory of subadditive stochastic processes, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 30:499–510, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1968.tb00749.x
  • H. Furstenberg and H. Kesten, Products of random matrices, Ann. Math. Statist. 31:457–469, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177705909
8 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control of Substitute Products 1: Under Multinomial Logit Choice the Optimal Dynamic Prices Equalize Marginal RevenuesResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers selling several related products can change prices as inventory runs down. A sale of one product changes the stock available in later periods, while changing its price also shifts demand toward or away from the other products. Dong, Kouvelis, and Tian study these linked decisions for substitute product variates under a multinomial logit customer choice model. Their 2009 article gives an exact characterization of the optimal dynamic price vector when each in-stock variate can have its own price. The characterization separates a product's inventory opportunity cost from a margin shared across all products, which makes the result more informative than an opaque Bellman maximization.

The mission isolates Theorem 1 of that article. The paper also studies restricted policies that require a unified price or fixed prices for some variates; those results are separate missions in this series. The present target concerns the fully flexible dynamic policy of §3.1, with the model and conventions of §2.

Setting

There are nnn product variates, indexed by iii, with finite quality parameters aia_iai​. Time ttt is the number of periods remaining, so it counts down to zero. The inventory state x=(xi)x=(x_i)x=(xi​) has nonnegative integer coordinates, and S(x)={i:xi>0}S(x)=\{i:x_i>0\}S(x)={i:xi​>0} is the set of variates still in stock. At most one customer arrives during a period, with probability λ\lambdaλ satisfying 0<λ≤10<\lambda\leq10<λ≤1. Inventory is not replenished. The retailer chooses a finite, nonnegative price rir_iri​ for each in-stock variate. An out-of-stock variate receives the paper's null price and contributes no demand.

An arriving customer chooses among the in-stock variates and the no-purchase option. The multinomial logit model assigns deterministic utility ai−ria_i-r_iai​−ri​ to variate iii and utility u0u_0u0​ to no purchase, with positive scale μ\muμ. Its probabilities are

Pi(x,r)=exp⁡((ai−ri)/μ)∑j∈S(x)exp⁡((aj−rj)/μ)+exp⁡(u0/μ),P0(x,r)=exp⁡(u0/μ)∑j∈S(x)exp⁡((aj−rj)/μ)+exp⁡(u0/μ).P_i(x,r)=\frac{\exp((a_i-r_i)/\mu)}{\sum_{j\in S(x)}\exp((a_j-r_j)/\mu)+\exp(u_0/\mu)},\qquad P_0(x,r)=\frac{\exp(u_0/\mu)}{\sum_{j\in S(x)}\exp((a_j-r_j)/\mu)+\exp(u_0/\mu)}.Pi​(x,r)=∑j∈S(x)​exp((aj​−rj​)/μ)+exp(u0​/μ)exp((ai​−ri​)/μ)​,P0​(x,r)=∑j∈S(x)​exp((aj​−rj​)/μ)+exp(u0​/μ)exp(u0​/μ)​.

Let πt(x)\pi_t(x)πt​(x) be the maximum expected revenue from state xxx with ttt periods remaining and zero terminal value π0(x)=0\pi_0(x)=0π0​(x)=0. A sale of variate iii moves the inventory to x−eix-e^ix−ei. Its marginal inventory value is Δiπt(x)=πt(x)−πt(x−ei)\Delta^i\pi_t(x)=\pi_t(x)-\pi_t(x-e^i)Δiπt​(x)=πt​(x)−πt​(x−ei) when i∈S(x)i\in S(x)i∈S(x). For a continuation value VVV, the one-period objective is current expected sales revenue plus the expected continuation revenue after a sale or no sale. The Bellman value takes its supremum over all finite nonnegative price vectors. Equation (5) rewrites that objective as ξV(x,r)+V(x)\xi_V(x,r)+V(x)ξV​(x,r)+V(x), where ξV\xi_VξV​ is the probability-weighted marginal revenue.

Formalization targets

Optimal dynamic prices

Theorem 1 asks for a unique common margin mt(x)m_t(x)mt​(x) satisfying

(mt(x)μ−1)exp⁡(mt(x)+u0μ)=∑i∈S(x)exp⁡(ai−Δiπt−1(x)μ).\left(\frac{m_t(x)}{\mu}-1\right)\exp\left(\frac{m_t(x)+u_0}{\mu}\right) =\sum_{i\in S(x)}\exp\left(\frac{a_i-\Delta^i\pi_{t-1}(x)}{\mu}\right).(μmt​(x)​−1)exp(μmt​(x)+u0​​)=i∈S(x)∑​exp(μai​−Δiπt−1​(x)​).

For every in-stock variate, the price ri∗=Δiπt−1(x)+mt(x)r_i^*=\Delta^i\pi_{t-1}(x)+m_t(x)ri∗​=Δiπt−1​(x)+mt​(x) must be feasible and attain the Bellman maximum. The margin also satisfies mt(x)P0(x,r∗)=μm_t(x)P_0(x,r^*)=\mumt​(x)P0​(x,r∗)=μ. These claims hold for every inventory state, including an empty in-stock set. They are the main target of Theorem 1, equations (9)–(10).

Total expected revenue

For each s=1,…,ts=1,\ldots,ts=1,…,t, let ms(x)m_s(x)ms​(x) be the unique margin equation root at the same inventory state xxx, with sss periods remaining. The remaining clause of Theorem 1 states

πt(x)=λ∑s=1t[ms(x)−μ].\pi_t(x)=\lambda\sum_{s=1}^{t}\bigl[m_s(x)-\mu\bigr].πt​(x)=λs=1∑t​[ms​(x)−μ].

The milestones track the paper's equation (5) and Steps 1–5 of its Appendix A argument: marginal inventory value, the mapping between prices and choice probabilities, concavity in probability coordinates, existence of the margin, optimal choice probabilities, and the one-period value identity.

Significance

The result turns a coupled dynamic program into a precise pricing characterization. It says that differences in optimal prices across products reflect differences in their marginal inventory values; the remaining margin is common. The value identity quantifies the expected revenue earned over the remaining horizon, and the explicit maximizer removes ambiguity about whether the Bellman supremum is attained. These conclusions support the paper's comparisons with restricted pricing policies and its later discussion of how quality and inventory scarcity affect prices Dong, Kouvelis, and Tian (2009).

The result is proved in the article. This mission contributes a Lean statement of the full theorem, its model, and seven named intermediate targets. The draft declarations compile against the pinned Mathlib environment; their proofs remain open. A complete formalization would provide reusable finite MNL choice probabilities, inverse price and probability identities, and a Bellman model for substitute-product inventory. The paper's economic conclusions should be recovered from those formal statements, rather than from a weakened existence claim.

Difficulty

The direct one-period objective in the price vector is not quasiconcave, as the paper notes on p. 323, so a local condition on prices alone does not establish global optimality. The price vector also ranges over an unbounded set, and a supremum could conceal a boundary or attainment issue. Finally, one extra unit of stock changes future probabilities across all products, not just the revenue of that product. These interactions make nonnegative marginal inventory value and the global optimality assertion substantive parts of the result. The probability-space objective is concave on its positive domain, but the printed Appendix A claim of strict concavity on the full domain is stronger than that function permits; uniqueness concerns the normalized choice-probability slice.

Formalization scope

Lean represents products by Fin n, inventories by functions Fin n → ℕ, and time by a natural number counting remaining periods. The model assumes μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and 0<λ≤10<\lambda\leq10<λ≤1. The set S(x)S(x)S(x) filters positive inventory coordinates; an out-of-stock variate is removed from every choice-probability sum, so its null price need not be encoded as a finite real. The objective's no-sale continuation term is counted once, following equations (5) and (22), despite the ambiguous bracket placement in printed equation (3). In-stock prices are finite and nonnegative. Off-stock coordinates of the displayed candidate vector are set to zero and do not affect demand.

Lean's natural-number subtraction in x−eix-e^ix−ei is used only for i∈S(x)i\in S(x)i∈S(x), where it subtracts exactly one unit. The Bellman value uses a real sSup, whose default on a badly bounded set could otherwise obscure the theorem. The goal and final milestone therefore require an explicit maximizing price vector and equality between the value and its objective. The margin root is stated as unique and every root is covered; it is not hidden behind a choice operator. Equation (11) quantifies over all roots for s=1,…,ts=1,\ldots,ts=1,…,t at one fixed xxx, not along a sample path. No assumption that n>0n>0n>0 or S(x)S(x)S(x) is nonempty is added to the goal. The price–probability mapping and interior optimality milestones assume S(x)S(x)S(x) nonempty where the paper's positive-simplex argument requires it.

A complete development needs finite-sum algebra, real exponential and logarithm facts, concavity on products of real function spaces, and boundedness and attainment facts for the Bellman objective. The MNL probability and inverse-map facts can serve later pricing models; the dynamic value and marginal-stock lemmas serve inventory-control formalizations. Contributions that prove these statements or isolate reusable analytic lemmas are within scope. The statement must retain both the Bellman maximizer and the value identity, so a default sSup value cannot turn the goal into a trivial equality.

Selected references

  • Lingxiu Dong, Panos Kouvelis, and Zhongjun Tian, Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control of Substitute Products, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(2), 317–339, 2009. DOI: 10.1287/msom.1080.0221.
10 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control of Substitute Products 2: The Optimal Unified Dynamic Price under Multinomial Logit ChoiceResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers often sell several variates of one product (colours, sizes or flavours of an otherwise identical item) from a fixed stock over a short season, with no replenishment. Customers substitute among the variates and the no-purchase option, so the price of one variate changes the demand for all of them, and the stock of each variate changes the value of selling the others. Dong, Kouvelis and Tian (M&SOM 2009) model this joint pricing and inventory problem with multinomial logit (MNL) choice and characterize optimal dynamic prices in closed form up to a scalar equation.

Many sellers do not price variates individually: apparel, sporting goods and airline examples are cited in the paper (Liu and Milner 2006) of unified dynamic pricing, where one price is charged for all variates and changed over time. Proposition 1 of the paper gives the optimal unified price and the optimal revenue in the same form as the paper's main result for variate-specific prices. Comparing the two quantifies how much revenue is lost by restricting to a common price, which is the purpose of the paper's §5.

Setting

There are nnn variates, n={1,…,n}\mathfrak n=\{1,\dots,n\}n={1,…,n}. Variate iii has quality index ai∈Ra_i\in\mathbb Rai​∈R, the no-purchase option has utility u0∈Ru_0\in\mathbb Ru0​∈R, μ>0\mu>0μ>0 is the MNL scale parameter, and in each period one customer arrives with probability λ∈(0,1]\lambda\in(0,1]λ∈(0,1]. Time ttt counts the remaining periods, so the season runs t=T,T−1,…,1t=T,T-1,\dots,1t=T,T−1,…,1 and ends at t=0t=0t=0.

An inventory level is x∈Nnx\in\mathbb N^nx∈Nn. The in-stock set is S(x)={i:xi>0}S(x)=\{i:x^i>0\}S(x)={i:xi>0}, and x−eix-e^ix−ei is the inventory after one sale of variate i∈S(x)i\in S(x)i∈S(x). Out-of-stock variates are not offered. At the price vector rrr, an arriving customer buys variate i∈S(x)i\in S(x)i∈S(x) or nothing with the MNL probabilities

Pi(r)=e(ai−ri)/μ∑j∈S(x)e(aj−rj)/μ+eu0/μ,P0(r)=eu0/μ∑j∈S(x)e(aj−rj)/μ+eu0/μ.P^i(r)=\frac{e^{(a_i-r^i)/\mu}}{\sum_{j\in S(x)}e^{(a_j-r^j)/\mu}+e^{u_0/\mu}},\qquad P^0(r)=\frac{e^{u_0/\mu}}{\sum_{j\in S(x)}e^{(a_j-r^j)/\mu}+e^{u_0/\mu}}.Pi(r)=∑j∈S(x)​e(aj​−rj)/μ+eu0​/μe(ai​−ri)/μ​,P0(r)=∑j∈S(x)​e(aj​−rj)/μ+eu0​/μeu0​/μ​.

Under unified pricing the decision in each period is one price r≥0r\ge0r≥0 charged for every in-stock variate. The unified value function πt(x)\pi_t(x)πt​(x), the maximal expected revenue from ttt remaining periods, satisfies π0≡0\pi_0\equiv0π0​≡0 and

πt(x)=max⁡r≥0{λ∑i∈S(x)rPi+λ∑i∈S(x)Piπt−1(x−ei)+(λP0+1−λ)πt−1(x)},\pi_t(x)=\max_{r\ge0}\Bigl\{\lambda\sum_{i\in S(x)}rP^i+\lambda\sum_{i\in S(x)}P^i\pi_{t-1}(x-e^i)+(\lambda P^0+1-\lambda)\pi_{t-1}(x)\Bigr\},πt​(x)=r≥0max​{λi∈S(x)∑​rPi+λi∈S(x)∑​Piπt−1​(x−ei)+(λP0+1−λ)πt−1​(x)},

with Pi,P0P^i,P^0Pi,P0 evaluated at (r,…,r)(r,\dots,r)(r,…,r). Write Δiπt−1(x)=πt−1(x)−πt−1(x−ei)\Delta^i\pi_{t-1}(x)=\pi_{t-1}(x)-\pi_{t-1}(x-e^i)Δiπt−1​(x)=πt−1​(x)−πt−1​(x−ei) for the marginal value of a unit of variate iii, and

Δwπt−1(x)=∑i∈S(x)eai/μΔiπt−1(x)∑i∈S(x)eai/μ,aw=μln⁡∑i∈S(x)eai/μ.\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}(x)=\frac{\sum_{i\in S(x)}e^{a_i/\mu}\Delta^i\pi_{t-1}(x)}{\sum_{i\in S(x)}e^{a_i/\mu}},\qquad a_w=\mu\ln\sum_{i\in S(x)}e^{a_i/\mu}.Δwπt−1​(x)=∑i∈S(x)​eai​/μ∑i∈S(x)​eai​/μΔiπt−1​(x)​,aw​=μlni∈S(x)∑​eai​/μ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

For t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and S(x)≠∅S(x)\neq\emptysetS(x)=∅, the equation

(mμ−1)exp⁡(m+u0μ)=exp⁡(aw−Δwπt−1(x)μ)\Bigl(\frac{m}{\mu}-1\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(\frac{m+u_0}{\mu}\Bigr)=\exp\Bigl(\frac{a_w-\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}(x)}{\mu}\Bigr)(μm​−1)exp(μm+u0​​)=exp(μaw​−Δwπt−1​(x)​)

has a unique solution mt(x)m_t(x)mt​(x); the price

rt∗(x)=Δwπt−1(x)+mt(x)r^*_t(x)=\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}(x)+m_t(x)rt∗​(x)=Δwπt−1​(x)+mt​(x)

is nonnegative and optimal, with mt(x)P0(rt∗)=μm_t(x)P^0(r^*_t)=\mumt​(x)P0(rt∗​)=μ; and

πt(x)=λ∑s=1t[ms(x)−μ],\pi_t(x)=\lambda\sum_{s=1}^{t}\bigl[m_s(x)-\mu\bigr],πt​(x)=λs=1∑t​[ms​(x)−μ],

where ms(x)m_s(x)ms​(x) solves the equation of period sss at the same inventory xxx. The statement asserts attainment of the maximum, not only a value for πt\pi_tπt​.

Milestones

The proof in Appendix A proceeds through a one-variable problem. For marginal values δi\delta_iδi​ let ξ(r)=∑i∈S(x)λPi(r)(r−δi)\xi(r)=\sum_{i\in S(x)}\lambda P^i(r)(r-\delta_i)ξ(r)=∑i∈S(x)​λPi(r)(r−δi​). The milestones are: the rewriting (23)–(24) of the optimality equation as an attained max⁡r≥0ξtu+πt−1(x)\max_{r\ge0}\xi^u_t+\pi_{t-1}(x)maxr≥0​ξtu​+πt−1​(x); the derivatives of PiP^iPi, P0P^0P0 and ξ\xiξ in the common price; the first-order conditions (25)–(26) with ξ>0\xi>0ξ>0 and 0<P0<10<P^0<10<P0<1 at a stationary point; the second-order condition, giving exactly one stationary point, which is the global maximizer of ξ\xiξ on R\mathbb RR; the formula r=δw+mr=\delta_w+mr=δw​+m with m=μ/P0m=\mu/P^0m=μ/P0 and the equation for mmm; uniqueness of the root of the margin equation, with root >μ>\mu>μ; and the displayed revenue sum πt(x)=λ∑s=1t[ms(x)−μ]\pi_t(x)=\lambda\sum_{s=1}^{t}[m_s(x)-\mu]πt​(x)=λ∑s=1t​[ms​(x)−μ] at the same inventory.

Significance

Proposition 1 reduces a dynamic program over a high-dimensional inventory state to a scalar root-finding problem per state and period, and gives the optimal revenue as a sum of margins. It shows that the full dynamic pricing result (Theorem 1 of the paper) survives the restriction to a common price, with the individual marginal values Δiπt−1\Delta^i\pi_{t-1}Δiπt−1​ replaced by their quality-weighted average Δwπt−1\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}Δwπt−1​, and the qualities replaced by the aggregate awa_waw​. This is what makes the paper's numerical comparison of unified, static and full dynamic pricing in §5 computable.

The result is proved in the paper; it has not been formalized. A formalization produces a checked version of the MNL derivative calculus, of the quasiconcavity argument for the common-price objective, and of the backward induction, and it closes a step the printed proof leaves implicit: that the maximizer over all real prices is nonnegative, so that it is feasible for the constrained problem.

Difficulty

The one-period objective is not concave in the price, so neither a concavity argument nor a direct appeal to a compactness theorem gives a unique maximizer. Negativity of the second derivative at stationary points is a local statement; the existence of a stationary point and its being the global maximum on all of R\mathbb RR do not follow from it alone.

The second difficulty is the constraint r≥0r\ge0r≥0. The paper solves the unconstrained problem. Showing that Δwπt−1(x)+mt(x)≥0\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}(x)+m_t(x)\ge0Δwπt−1​(x)+mt​(x)≥0 needs a property of the unified value function, nonnegativity of the weighted marginal value, which the paper does not state. The obvious argument, πt−1\pi_{t-1}πt−1​ increasing in inventory term by term, does not apply verbatim when a variate leaves the in-stock set, because the choice set itself changes.

Finally, a supremum in Lean is a real number even when not attained; the value identity is only meaningful together with attainment, which the goal states explicitly.

Formalization scope

The model is one definition file, SubstitutePricing.Unified.Model: a structure with nnn, a:Fin n→Ra:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathbb Ra:Finn→R, u0u_0u0​, μ\muμ, λ\lambdaλ; assumptions μ>0\mu>0μ>0, 0<λ≤10<\lambda\le10<λ≤1; inventories x:Fin n→Nx:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\to\mathbb Nx:Finn→N; the in-stock set as a Finset; MNL probabilities with sums over S(x)S(x)S(x) only (the paper's null price ri=∞r^i=\inftyri=∞ is modelled by removal from the choice set); and the unified value function by recursion on ttt, as a real sSup over r∈[0,∞)r\in[0,\infty)r∈[0,∞). The equation (3) is read with the no-purchase term outside the sum over variates, as the paper's (5) and (22) use it.

Committed conventions and restrictions:

  • t≥1t\ge1t≥1 in Proposition 1 (the printed "t=T,…,0t=T,\dots,0t=T,…,0" includes t=0t=0t=0, where πt−1\pi_{t-1}πt−1​ does not exist).
  • S(x)≠∅S(x)\neq\emptysetS(x)=∅ in every statement of the dynamic program and in the static milestones that use it: for an empty in-stock set awa_waw​ and Δwπ\Delta^w\piΔwπ involve ln⁡0\ln0ln0 and 0/00/00/0, and the revenue formula fails.
  • The optimal margin is quantified as the unique root of its equation, and the revenue formula takes the roots of all periods s≤ts\le ts≤t at the same inventory xxx.
  • The goal asserts nonnegativity of rt∗r^*_trt∗​; the paper's proof uses but does not prove it.
  • The paper's intermediate display (27) is misprinted and is not formalized; its correct consequences are.
  • Milestones 2–6 concern a static objective with arbitrary marginal values δ\deltaδ; only the goal and the recursion milestone refer to the value function.

A statement about πt\pi_tπt​ alone, without the attainment and feasibility of rt∗r^*_trt∗​, would be trivially satisfiable by a junk supremum and is ruled out by the goal's form.

Infrastructure needed: derivatives of MNL probabilities, a quasiconcavity or unique-critical-point lemma for one-variable functions, a root lemma for (m/μ−1)e(m+u0)/μ(m/\mu-1)e^{(m+u_0)/\mu}(m/μ−1)e(m+u0​)/μ, and a monotonicity property of the unified value function. The MNL derivative calculus and the root lemma are reusable for the companion missions on full dynamic pricing and mixed pricing from the same paper. Contributions on any milestone, and on the nonnegativity of Δwπt−1\Delta^w\pi_{t-1}Δwπt−1​, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Dong, P. Kouvelis, Z. Tian, Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control of Substitute Products, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(2), 317–339, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1080.0221
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1), 24–41, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.24
  • Q. Liu, J. Milner, Multiple-item dynamic pricing under a common pricing constraint, working paper, University of Toronto, 2006 (cited in the source as the motivation for unified pricing).
  • S. P. Anderson, A. de Palma, J.-F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, MIT Press, 1992.
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Dynamical SystemsProbabilityRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Subadditive Ergodic Theory 4: Furstenberg–Kesten — for Stationary Positive Random Matrices, n⁻¹ log [Y₁⋯Y_n]_ij Converges, Independently of i and jResearch Paper

Products of random matrices

Many systems evolve by repeated multiplication by a random linear map: the state of a linear system with randomly varying coefficients, population vectors in a random environment (Leslie models whose rates change from year to year), the transfer matrices of a disordered one-dimensional medium, and the transition operators of a Markov chain in a random environment. In each case the object of interest is the product Xn=Y1Y2⋯YnX_n = Y_1 Y_2 \cdots Y_nXn​=Y1​Y2​⋯Yn​ of random matrices and its growth as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞.

The basic answer is due to Furstenberg and Kesten (Products of random matrices, Ann. Math. Statist. 31 (1960)): under a logarithmic moment condition and stationarity, n−1log⁡n^{-1}\logn−1log of the size of XnX_nXn​ converges. Their proof was a substantial piece of analysis. In his 1973 IMS Special Invited Paper (Kingman, Subadditive ergodic theory, Ann. Probab. 1 (1973)), J. F. C. Kingman showed that for matrices with strictly positive entries the result is a short corollary of his subadditive ergodic theorem (Theorem 1 of that paper, 1968). This mission formalizes that application: Theorem 5 of the 1973 paper, §2.2, pp. 891–892.

Timeline:

  • 1960: Furstenberg and Kesten prove convergence of n−1log⁡∥Xn∥n^{-1}\log\|X_n\|n−1log∥Xn​∥ and, for positive matrices, of n−1log⁡[Xn]ijn^{-1}\log[X_n]_{ij}n−1log[Xn​]ij​.
  • 1968: Kingman proves the subadditive ergodic theorem (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. B 30).
  • 1973: Kingman's survey deduces the positive-matrix theorem (Theorem 5) and the general Banach-algebra version (Theorem 6) from it.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space, k≥1k\ge1k≥1, and let Y1,Y2,…Y_1, Y_2,\dotsY1​,Y2​,… be random k×kk\times kk×k real matrices. Write [A]ij[A]_{ij}[A]ij​ for the (i,j)(i,j)(i,j)th entry of a matrix AAA, and

Xn=Y1Y2⋯Yn(2.2.1),X_n = Y_1 Y_2\cdots Y_n \qquad (2.2.1),Xn​=Y1​Y2​⋯Yn​(2.2.1),

the product taken left to right. The sequence (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) is stationary if the joint law of (Y2,Y3,… )(Y_2, Y_3, \dots)(Y2​,Y3​,…) equals the joint law of (Y1,Y2,… )(Y_1, Y_2, \dots)(Y1​,Y2​,…); this is a statement about all finite-dimensional distributions at once, and it includes the case of independent identically distributed matrices.

The proof works with the diagonal process

zst=[Ys+1Ys+2⋯Yt]11,xst=−log⁡zst(s<t),z_{st} = [Y_{s+1}Y_{s+2}\cdots Y_t]_{11},\qquad x_{st} = -\log z_{st}\qquad (s<t),zst​=[Ys+1​Ys+2​⋯Yt​]11​,xst​=−logzst​(s<t),

and with the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-norm ∥A∥=max⁡i∑j∣[A]ij∣\|A\| = \max_i \sum_j |[A]_{ij}|∥A∥=maxi​∑j​∣[A]ij​∣. A family (xst)s<t(x_{st})_{s<t}(xst​)s<t​ is a subadditive process (§1.1) if S₁: xsu≤xst+xtux_{su}\le x_{st}+x_{tu}xsu​≤xst​+xtu​ for s<t<us<t<us<t<u; S₂: the joint distributions of (xs+1,t+1)(x_{s+1,t+1})(xs+1,t+1​) equal those of (xst)(x_{st})(xst​); S₃: gt=E(x0t)g_t=E(x_{0t})gt​=E(x0t​) exists and gt≥−Atg_t\ge -Atgt​≥−At for some constant AAA.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5

Suppose the elements of the matrices YnY_nYn​ are strictly positive, E∣log⁡[Yn]ij∣<∞E|\log[Y_n]_{ij}|<\inftyE∣log[Yn​]ij​∣<∞ for every nnn and every i,ji,ji,j, and (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) is stationary. Then there is one finite random variable λ\lambdaλ such that for every (i,j)(i,j)(i,j)

λ=lim⁡n→∞n−1log⁡[Xn]ij(2.2.2)\lambda = \lim_{n\to\infty} n^{-1}\log [X_n]_{ij} \qquad (2.2.2)λ=n→∞lim​n−1log[Xn​]ij​(2.2.2)

with probability one and in mean. The limit is random in general (it is constant when (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) is ergodic); the theorem asserts its existence, its finiteness and its independence of (i,j)(i,j)(i,j), and nothing about its value.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. (2.3.1): [AB]11≥[A]11[B]11[AB]_{11}\ge[A]_{11}[B]_{11}[AB]11​≥[A]11​[B]11​ for matrices with strictly positive entries.
  2. xst=−log⁡zstx_{st}=-\log z_{st}xst​=−logzst​ satisfies S₁ and S₂, and each xstx_{st}xst​ has finite expectation gt−sg_{t-s}gt−s​.
  3. E{log⁡∥Y1∥}<∞E\{\log\|Y_1\|\}<\inftyE{log∥Y1​∥}<∞ and gn/n≥−E{log⁡∥Y1∥}g_n/n\ge -E\{\log\|Y_1\|\}gn​/n≥−E{log∥Y1​∥} for all n≥1n\ge1n≥1, so S₃ holds.
  4. The limit (2.2.2) exists, with probability one and in mean, for i=j=1i=j=1i=j=1.
  5. (2.2.3): for every (i,j)(i,j)(i,j), P{lim inf⁡n−1log⁡[Xn]ij≥λ}=1P\{\liminf n^{-1}\log[X_n]_{ij}\ge\lambda\}=1P{liminfn−1log[Xn​]ij​≥λ}=1.
  6. For every (i,j)(i,j)(i,j), P{lim sup⁡n−1log⁡[Xn]ij≤λ}=1P\{\limsup n^{-1}\log[X_n]_{ij}\le\lambda\}=1P{limsupn−1log[Xn​]ij​≤λ}=1.

Significance

The limit λ\lambdaλ is the top Lyapunov exponent of the random product: it is the almost-sure exponential growth rate of every entry, and hence of every norm, of XnX_nXn​. It governs the stability of random linear recursions vn=vn−1Ynv_{n}=v_{n-1}Y_nvn​=vn−1​Yn​, the long-run growth rate of populations in random environments, and localization in one-dimensional disordered systems. Theorem 5 is the existence statement on which all of these quantitative questions rest.

The theorem has been proved since 1960, and Kingman's derivation is a classical model application of subadditive ergodic theory. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof: Mathlib has neither Kingman's subadditive ergodic theorem nor any limit theorem for random matrix products. This mission produces a formal statement of the result together with the formal decomposition of the proof into the steps Kingman writes down; its milestone 4 is exactly where the subadditive ergodic theorem (the goal of the companion mission Subadditive Ergodic Theory 1) is applied.

Difficulty

Milestones 1–3 are deterministic matrix inequalities plus integrability bookkeeping; the substance is elsewhere. First, milestone 4 needs the full subadditive ergodic theorem, almost-sure and in mean, for a non-ergodic stationary process: the classical Birkhoff theorem does not apply, because log⁡[Xn]11\log[X_n]_{11}log[Xn​]11​ is not a sum of stationary increments. Second, passing from the diagonal entry to all entries requires controlling n−1log⁡[Yn]1jn^{-1}\log[Y_n]_{1j}n−1log[Yn​]1j​ along a stationary sequence with only a first-moment hypothesis, and transporting an almost-sure statement about Xn′=Y2⋯Yn+1X_n'=Y_2\cdots Y_{n+1}Xn′​=Y2​⋯Yn+1​ back to XnX_nXn​ by stationarity, where the limit λ\lambdaλ is itself random. The natural shortcut — treating λ\lambdaλ as a constant — is only valid under ergodicity, which is not assumed.

Formalization scope

  • Matrices are Matrix (Fin k) (Fin k) ℝ with NeZero k; the paper's index 111 is 0 : Fin k. The sequence is Y : ℕ → Ω → Matrix …, read only for n≥1n\ge1n≥1; Y 0 plays no role.
  • Products are ordered: Ys+1⋯YtY_{s+1}\cdots Y_tYs+1​⋯Yt​ is the List.prod of [Y (s+1), …, Y t]; X0X_0X0​ is the identity.
  • Stationarity is equality of the laws of (Yn+2)n≥0(Y_{n+2})_{n\ge0}(Yn+2​)n≥0​ and (Yn+1)n≥0(Y_{n+1})_{n\ge0}(Yn+1​)n≥0​ on ℕ → Fin k → Fin k → ℝ with the product σ-algebra. Independence is not assumed.
  • Positivity holds for every outcome; "their logarithms have finite expectations" is integrability of every log⁡[Yn]ij\log[Y_n]_{ij}log[Yn​]ij​, n≥1n\ge1n≥1.
  • "Finite limit" is a real-valued lam : Ω → ℝ; "in mean" is E∣n−1log⁡[Xn]ij−λ∣→0E|n^{-1}\log[X_n]_{ij}-\lambda|\to0E∣n−1log[Xn​]ij​−λ∣→0 with λ\lambdaλ integrable; time is n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N with Filter.atTop. One lam serves all (i,j)(i,j)(i,j).
  • Lim inf and lim sup inequalities are stated with ε\varepsilonε: almost surely, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually n−1log⁡[Xn]ij≥λ−εn^{-1}\log[X_n]_{ij}\ge\lambda-\varepsilonn−1log[Xn​]ij​≥λ−ε (respectively ≤λ+ε\le\lambda+\varepsilon≤λ+ε), which avoids the junk value of a real liminf on unbounded sequences.
  • Real.log 0 = 0 in Lean; the statements apply log only to entries that are strictly positive under the hypotheses, so no junk value enters. Dropping the positivity hypothesis would change the theorem, and is not an acceptable shortcut.
  • The S₁/S₂ vocabulary of §1.1 comes from the group's shared process module; this mission defines gtg_tgt​ locally. The general subadditive ergodic theorem is not restated here, and milestone 4 is the object-specific statement the paper writes.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the matrix inequalities, the integrability and stationarity transfer lemmas, a formal subadditive ergodic theorem (shared with the companion mission).

Selected references

  • J. F. C. Kingman, Subadditive ergodic theory, Ann. Probab. 1(6):883–899, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996798
  • H. Furstenberg and H. Kesten, Products of random matrices, Ann. Math. Statist. 31(2):457–469, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177705909
  • J. F. C. Kingman, The ergodic theory of subadditive stochastic processes, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 30(3):499–510, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1968.tb00749.x
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains 2: Representatives of Average Optimal Stationary Policies Are Optimal Dual Solutions, and Every Optimal Dual Solution Gives an Average Optimal PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

A finite Markov decision process may have several recurrent classes under one policy. In that setting, its long-run reward depends on the initial state, and a single stationary distribution does not describe the whole decision problem. Hordijk and Kallenberg developed a linear program with two families of variables to handle this multichain case. Their Theorem 8 relates policies to feasible points of that program in both directions: optimal stationary policies give optimal dual solutions, and every optimal dual solution gives an average optimal stationary policy. This relationship explains why the dual program represents the original sequential decision problem rather than merely bounding its value. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979)

An earlier frequency formulation associated stationary randomized policies with one family of occupation variables in a more restricted Markov-chain setting. The present theorem uses both xxx and yyy variables, and its policy comparison covers history-dependent randomized decisions. The corresponding formalization therefore addresses the finite multichain model of the 1979 paper, with its own dual equations and representative map. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), §§1 and 3.3

Setting

Let EEE be a nonempty finite set of states. At state iii, an action aaa is chosen from a nonempty finite set A(i)A(i)A(i). It earns a real reward riar_{ia}ria​ and moves to state jjj with probability piajp_{iaj}piaj​. The transition probabilities are nonnegative and sum to one over jjj. A general policy RRR may randomize and use the complete past history. Its average reward ϕi(R)\phi_i(R)ϕi​(R) is the liminf, as the horizon grows, of expected total reward divided by the horizon when the initial state is iii. The optimal value ϕi\phi_iϕi​ is the supremum of ϕi(R)\phi_i(R)ϕi​(R) over all such policies. A policy is average optimal when it attains that value at every state. These are the conventions of §2.1 of the paper. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), p. 353

A stationary randomized policy π∞\pi^\inftyπ∞ chooses each admissible action aaa at state iii with a fixed probability πia\pi_{ia}πia​, independently of the epoch and history. Its transition matrix is P(π)ij=∑a∈A(i)πiapiajP(\pi)_{ij}=\sum_{a\in A(i)}\pi_{ia}p_{iaj}P(π)ij​=∑a∈A(i)​πia​piaj​, and its reward vector is r(π)i=∑a∈A(i)πiariar(\pi)_i=\sum_{a\in A(i)}\pi_{ia}r_{ia}r(π)i​=∑a∈A(i)​πia​ria​. The Cesàro limit matrix P∗(π)P^*(\pi)P∗(π) and deviation matrix D(π)D(\pi)D(π) describe the recurrent and transient behavior of this finite chain. In particular, ϕ(π∞)=P∗(π)r(π)\phi(\pi^\infty)=P^*(\pi)r(\pi)ϕ(π∞)=P∗(π)r(π). Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), p. 359

Fix positive state weights βj\beta_jβj​ summing to one. The primal linear program minimizes ∑jβjϕ~j\sum_j\beta_j\widetilde\phi_j∑j​βj​ϕ​j​ over pairs (ϕ~,u~)(\widetilde\phi,\widetilde u)(ϕ​,u) that are superharmonic: for every iii and a∈A(i)a\in A(i)a∈A(i), the first vector dominates its one-step expected continuation, and the sum of the two vectors dominates one-step reward plus the continuation of the second. The dual linear program maximizes ∑i,ariaxia\sum_{i,a}r_{ia}x_{ia}∑i,a​ria​xia​ over nonnegative xiax_{ia}xia​ and yiay_{ia}yia​ satisfying the two flow equations (3) and (4). Variables are present only for admissible state-action pairs. The set ExE_xEx​ consists of states where ∑axia>0\sum_a x_{ia}>0∑a​xia​>0. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), pp. 356–357

For a feasible dual point (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), the associated policy π(x,y)\pi(x,y)π(x,y) normalizes the xxx row at states in ExE_xEx​ and the yyy row at other states. Conversely, equation (6) constructs a representative (x(π),y(π))(x(\pi),y(\pi))(x(π),y(π)) of a stationary randomized policy. Its xxx coordinates use βTP∗(π)\beta^TP^*(\pi)βTP∗(π). Its yyy coordinates use βTD(π)+γTP∗(π)\beta^TD(\pi)+\gamma^TP^*(\pi)βTD(π)+γTP∗(π), where γ\gammaγ is zero at transient states and is chosen separately on each recurrent class by a maximum formula. The formalization restricts that formula's denominator to the recurrent class, as required by the subsequent nonnegativity calculation; the printed unrestricted denominator has a two-state counterexample. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), pp. 359–360

Formalization targets

Optimality correspondence

The goal is Theorem 8, with both directions in one statement:

π∞ average optimal ⟹ (x(π),y(π)) dual optimal,(x,y) dual optimal ⟹ π∞(x,y) average optimal.\pi^\infty\text{ average optimal}\ \Longrightarrow\ (x(\pi),y(\pi))\text{ dual optimal}, \qquad (x,y)\text{ dual optimal}\ \Longrightarrow\ \pi^\infty(x,y)\text{ average optimal}.π∞ average optimal ⟹ (x(π),y(π)) dual optimal,(x,y) dual optimal ⟹ π∞(x,y) average optimal.

The second implication applies to every optimal dual point. It produces the stationary randomized policy given by the printed normalization rule, including its existence as a valid policy. The first implication uses the particular representative defined by equation (6). Neither direction imposes an extreme-point condition. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), Theorem 8, p. 360

Supporting results

The milestones state the least-superharmonic characterization of ϕ\phiϕ; the positivity that makes the dual-to-policy normalization meaningful; the stationary gain identity; feasibility and objective value of the representative; and Propositions 4 and 5, which describe tight actions and identify ExE_xEx​ with the recurrent states of P(π(x,y))P(\pi(x,y))P(π(x,y)). Each is a statement about the same finite model and the same primal–dual pair. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), pp. 356–361

Significance

The theorem establishes an exact relation between two ways of expressing average optimality. The LP direction turns an optimal stationary policy into a dual optimum with a concrete state-action representation. The converse says an arbitrary optimal dual point can be read as an average optimal policy, even when its xxx coordinates vanish at some states. Proposition 5 specifies what those vanishing coordinates mean for the induced chain: those states are transient. These statements permit optimization over a finite LP while preserving the policy interpretation of its solutions. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), Theorem 8 and Proposition 5

The result was proved in 1979; this mission asks for a machine-checked proof of its precise finite-state statement. The shared MDP model and the limit and deviation matrix definitions already exist as published formal objects. The new work is the correspondence for Hordijk and Kallenberg's dual equations, with the representative, its class-wise correction, and the connection to liminf average reward. The definitions of stationary policy mixtures, admissible-pair LP coordinates, and finite-chain recurrence can support later results about average-reward optimization.

Difficulty

Normalizing xxx alone does not define a policy at every state: its row sum can be zero. The dual program's second variable yyy supplies the action weights there, and the feasibility equations must ensure its row sum is positive. In the other direction, the natural βTD(π)\beta^TD(\pi)βTD(π) term in y(π)y(\pi)y(π) need not be nonnegative. The correction γ\gammaγ is chosen by a maximum over each recurrent class, while transient states require a different case. These issues remain in a multichain process even though the state and action sets are finite. Hordijk and Kallenberg (1979), pp. 359–361

Formalization scope

Lean uses finite types for states and actions, a nonempty state type, and a nonempty admissible action set at every state. The published StationaryMDP definition provides real rewards and stochastic transition rows. General policies are its history-dependent randomized AvgHRPolicy values; average reward is its liminf reward, and optimal gain is the supremum over that entire policy class. The mission defines its own average-optimality predicate because the published Puterman predicate uses a stronger limsup comparison. For finite rewards, the liminf gains and their supremum are bounded real numbers.

Stationary randomized weights are nonnegative, sum to one on each A(i)A(i)A(i), and vanish outside A(i)A(i)A(i). The dual variables are functions on the subtype of admissible state-action pairs. The primal and dual optima mean feasible points attaining the relevant objective against every other feasible point. The paper's positive, normalized β\betaβ remains explicit. The raw formula for π(x,y)\pi(x,y)π(x,y) is used only with a feasible dual point, and the policy-well-definedness milestone supplies its nonzero denominators. The representative uses a maximum over the ergodic class of each recurrent state, with the class-restricted denominator needed by the paper's proof; replacing γ\gammaγ by zero or by one global maximum would change the target.

The known matrix objects P∗P^*P∗ and DDD are imported from the published Blackwell development. Their convergence and identities are theorem obligations, not assumptions hidden in definitions. Contributions proving the finite-chain identities, representative feasibility, complementary slackness, and the final policy comparison are within scope. A statement restricted to a unichain model, an extreme dual point, or a pure selected action would not establish this theorem.

Selected references

  • A. Hordijk and L. C. M. Kallenberg, Linear Programming and Markov Decision Chains, Management Science 25(4):352–362, 1979. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.25.4.352.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Reflected Solutions of Backward SDE's, and Related Obstacle Problems for PDE's 1: The Reflected BSDE Has a Unique Square-Integrable SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) prescribes the value ξ\xiξ of a process at a terminal time TTT and asks for an adapted process YYY that reaches it while following a given drift fff. Adaptedness forces a second unknown ZZZ, the integrand of a martingale term. Pardoux and Peng (1990) proved that Lipschitz BSDEs are well posed. BSDEs then became a standard language for stochastic control, for pricing and hedging in mathematical finance, and for probabilistic representations of semilinear parabolic PDEs.

Many such problems carry a constraint. The value of an American option must stay above its exercise payoff, and the value of an optimal stopping problem must stay above the reward for stopping now. El Karoui, Kapoudjian, Pardoux, Peng and Quenez (1997) introduced the reflected BSDE: the solution is kept above a given obstacle SSS by an increasing process KKK that acts only when the constraint binds. This mission formalizes the paper's first main result, existence and uniqueness of the reflected BSDE, together with the estimates its proof rests on.

Setting

Let B=(B1,…,Bd)B=(B^1,\dots,B^d)B=(B1,…,Bd) be a ddd-dimensional standard Brownian motion on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P). Let (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​) be its natural filtration, augmented by the PPP-null sets. Fix a horizon TTT. The data are:

  • a terminal value ξ\xiξ, FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable with Eξ2<∞E\xi^2<\inftyEξ2<∞ (condition (i));
  • a coefficient f(t,ω,y,z)f(t,\omega,y,z)f(t,ω,y,z) such that f(⋅,y,z)f(\cdot,y,z)f(⋅,y,z) is progressively measurable with E∫0Tf(t,y,z)2dt<∞E\int_0^Tf(t,y,z)^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​f(t,y,z)2dt<∞ (ii), and ∣f(t,y,z)−f(t,y′,z′)∣≤K(∣y−y′∣+∣z−z′∣)|f(t,y,z)-f(t,y',z')|\le K(|y-y'|+|z-z'|)∣f(t,y,z)−f(t,y′,z′)∣≤K(∣y−y′∣+∣z−z′∣) almost surely for some K>0K>0K>0 (iii);
  • an obstacle SSS, continuous and progressively measurable, with Esup⁡t≤T(St+)2<∞E\sup_{t\le T}(S_t^+)^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​(St+​)2<∞ (iv),

with the standing assumption ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ a.s.

A solution is a triple (Y,Z,K)(Y,Z,K)(Y,Z,K) of progressively measurable processes, valued in R\mathbb RR, Rd\mathbb R^dRd and R+\mathbb R_+R+​, such that

Yt=ξ+∫tTf(s,Ys,Zs) ds+KT−Kt−∫tT(Zs,dBs),0≤t≤T(vi),Y_t=\xi+\int_t^Tf(s,Y_s,Z_s)\,ds+K_T-K_t-\int_t^T(Z_s,dB_s),\qquad 0\le t\le T\quad\text{(vi)},Yt​=ξ+∫tT​f(s,Ys​,Zs​)ds+KT​−Kt​−∫tT​(Zs​,dBs​),0≤t≤T(vi),

Yt≥StY_t\ge S_tYt​≥St​ (vii), and KKK is continuous and nondecreasing with K0=0K_0=0K0​=0 and ∫0T(Yt−St) dKt=0\int_0^T(Y_t-S_t)\,dK_t=0∫0T​(Yt​−St​)dKt​=0 (viii). Condition (viii) says that KKK increases only when YYY touches SSS. The integrability conditions are (v), E∫0T∣Zt∣2dt<∞E\int_0^T|Z_t|^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​∣Zt​∣2dt<∞, and (v′), Esup⁡t≤TYt2<∞E\sup_{t\le T}Y_t^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​Yt2​<∞ and EKT2<∞EK_T^2<\inftyEKT2​<∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

Under (i)–(iv) and ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ, the reflected BSDE with (v)–(viii) has a solution, and any two solutions satisfying (v)–(viii) coincide:

∃ (Y,Z,K) solving (v)–(viii),(Y,Z,K),(Y′,Z′,K′) solving (v)–(viii) ⇒ Y≡Y′, K≡K′, Z=Z′ dP⊗dt-a.e.\exists\,(Y,Z,K)\ \text{solving (v)–(viii)},\qquad (Y,Z,K),(Y',Z',K')\ \text{solving (v)–(viii)}\ \Rightarrow\ Y\equiv Y',\ K\equiv K',\ Z=Z'\ dP\otimes dt\text{-a.e.}∃(Y,Z,K) solving (v)–(viii),(Y,Z,K),(Y′,Z′,K′) solving (v)–(viii) ⇒ Y≡Y′, K≡K′, Z=Z′ dP⊗dt-a.e.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 2.1: the deterministic Skorohod problem y=x+k≥0y=x+k\ge0y=x+k≥0 has a unique solution, with kt=sup⁡s≤txs−k_t=\sup_{s\le t}x_s^-kt​=sups≤t​xs−​.
  2. Proposition 2.2: KT−Kt=sup⁡t≤u≤T(ξ+∫uTf ds−∫uT(Zs,dBs)−Su)−K_T-K_t=\sup_{t\le u\le T}\big(\xi+\int_u^Tf\,ds-\int_u^T(Z_s,dB_s)-S_u\big)^-KT​−Kt​=supt≤u≤T​(ξ+∫uT​fds−∫uT​(Zs​,dBs​)−Su​)−.
  3. Corollary 3.3 (α): (v) implies (v′).
  4. Proposition 2.3: Yt=ess sup⁡v∈TtE[∫tvf ds+Sv1{v<T}+ξ1{v=T}∣Ft]Y_t=\operatorname{ess\,sup}_{v\in\mathcal T_t}E\big[\int_t^vf\,ds+S_v1_{\{v<T\}}+\xi1_{\{v=T\}}\mid\mathcal F_t\big]Yt​=esssupv∈Tt​​E[∫tv​fds+Sv​1{v<T}​+ξ1{v=T}​∣Ft​].
  5. Proposition 3.5: the a priori estimate E(sup⁡Y2+∫∣Z∣2+KT2)≤C E(ξ2+∫f(t,0,0)2+sup⁡(S+)2)E(\sup Y^2+\int|Z|^2+K_T^2)\le C\,E(\xi^2+\int f(t,0,0)^2+\sup(S^+)^2)E(supY2+∫∣Z∣2+KT2​)≤CE(ξ2+∫f(t,0,0)2+sup(S+)2).
  6. Proposition 3.6: the stability estimate in (ξ,f,S)(\xi,f,S)(ξ,f,S).
  7. Corollary 3.7: uniqueness under (v).
  8. Proposition 5.1: well-posedness of the backward reflection problem, the case where f=f(t)f=f(t)f=f(t) does not depend on (y,z)(y,z)(y,z).

Significance

Theorem 5.2 is the foundation of the theory of reflected BSDEs. With it, the solution gives the value of a mixed optimal stopping problem (Proposition 2.3). For concave fff it gives the value of a combined stopping and control problem, and in a Markovian setting it gives the unique viscosity solution of the obstacle problem for a semilinear parabolic PDE. The other two missions of this series formalize those consequences, and both use the existence and uniqueness proved here. The model has many later extensions (two obstacles and Dynkin games, jumps, quadratic growth), and the pricing of American options under constrained or nonlinear dynamics is formulated through it.

The result is classical and fully proved in the paper. As far as is known, no machine-checked proof of existence for a (reflected or plain) BSDE exists. The remaining work is the formalization of the known proof: the Skorohod lemma, the optimal-stopping representation, the a priori and stability estimates, and the Picard contraction. The milestones are reusable well beyond this paper, in particular the Skorohod lemma, the estimates, and the identification of the reflected solution with a Snell envelope.

Difficulty

The natural first idea is to treat (vi) as a forward equation and reflect it pathwise with the Skorohod map, as in forward reflected SDEs. This fails: the pathwise reflection of a backward equation produces a process KKK that is not adapted (Proposition 2.2 gives KKK as a supremum over the future). The adaptedness of (Y,K)(Y,K)(Y,K) comes only from the choice of ZZZ, i.e. from a martingale representation. Any construction must produce ZZZ and KKK together, and the estimates must control the contribution of KKK using only the minimality condition (viii). In the formal setting, Mathlib has Brownian motion, filtrations, stopping times and conditional expectations, but no stochastic integral (the platform definition Peng1990.SMP.IsItoIntegral supplies one, without any calculus), no Itô formula, no martingale representation, no Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequality and no Snell envelope theory in continuous time.

Formalization scope

The Lean development builds on the published definitions Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic: standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion, H2\mathbb H^2H2 as L2F, and the L2L^2L2 Itô integral IsItoIntegral. It commits to the following conventions:

  • time is ℝ≥0, with T:R≥0T:\mathbb R_{\ge0}T:R≥0​, and only t≤Tt\le Tt≤T matters;
  • the filtration is the natural Brownian filtration joined with the σ\sigmaσ-algebra of PPP-null sets;
  • H2\mathbb H^2H2 uses progressive rather than predictable measurability;
  • ∣z∣|z|∣z∣ is the Euclidean norm on Rd\mathbb R^dRd;
  • the stochastic integral is the L2L^2L2 Itô integral with a version continuous on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Since that integral is only defined for Z∈H2Z\in\mathbb H^2Z∈H2, the predicate for (vi)–(viii) contains (v), which is a recorded deviation for Proposition 2.2;
  • (vi)–(viii) hold almost surely, simultaneously for all t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T];
  • the integral ∫(Y−S) dK\int(Y-S)\,dK∫(Y−S)dK is taken against the Stieltjes measure of the path of KKK;
  • moments are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞];
  • the essential supremum is a predicate on the candidate;
  • uniqueness of ZZZ is dP⊗dtdP\otimes dtdP⊗dt-almost everywhere.

Proposition 2.3 additionally assumes S∈S2S\in\mathcal S^2S∈S2, which the paper's Remark 3.2 allows without loss of generality, so that every conditional expectation in it is of an integrable variable. The constants of Propositions 3.5 and 3.6 are quantified before the Brownian dimension, probability space, data and solution, and depend only on (T,K)(T,K)(T,K); a per-solution constant would make both statements trivial. The condition ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ is part of every statement, since without it no solution exists. Proposition 3.1 and Corollary 3.3 (β) are not posed.

A complete proof needs Itô's formula for Y2Y^2Y2, the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequality, Gronwall's lemma, martingale representation for the Brownian filtration, and the Snell envelope with its Doob–Meyer decomposition. Each of these is reusable on its own, and contributions of any of them are welcome, as are proofs of individual milestones.

Selected references

  • N. El Karoui, C. Kapoudjian, É. Pardoux, S. Peng, M. C. Quenez, Reflected solutions of backward SDE's, and related obstacle problems for PDE's, Ann. Probab. 25(2), 1997, 702–737. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1024404416
  • É. Pardoux, S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems & Control Letters 14, 1990, 55–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
  • N. El Karoui, S. Peng, M. C. Quenez, Backward stochastic differential equations in finance, Math. Finance 7(1), 1997, 1–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00022
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 6: For 0 < ξ < α, Residual Life Attraction to Γ_α Is Equivalent to a Finite ξ-th Moment and E((X/t)^ξ | X > t) → (1 − ξ/α)^{−1}Research Paper

Motivation

Actuaries, reliability engineers and demographers ask how much longer an item or a person will live given that it has already survived to a great age ttt. For a lifetime XXX with distribution function FFF, this is the law of the residual life time X−tX - tX−t given X>tX > tX>t, and the question is what this law looks like as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974) 792–804) determined all possible limit laws of the suitably normed residual life time and the distribution functions attracted to each. When only a scale normalization is allowed, the possible continuous limits are the exponential law and the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, the counterparts in residual-life theory of the Gumbel and Fréchet laws of extreme value theory. Both theories rest on Karamata's theory of regular variation (de Haan 1970).

Section 5 of the paper restates the domain of attraction of Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ in terms of moments: weak convergence of the scaled residual life times is equivalent to convergence of a single conditional moment of the scaled residual life. For an exponential limit the analogous link between weak convergence and first moments had been studied by Meilijson (1972). Moment conditions of this form underlie the mean-excess and Hill-type diagnostics used in heavy-tail statistics and in the peaks-over-threshold method (Pickands 1975).

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ and distribution function FFF, and write R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x} for its tail. The standing assumption is F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every real xxx, i.e. R(x)>0R(x) > 0R(x)>0: XXX has no finite upper endpoint, and conditioning on {X>t}\{X > t\}{X>t} makes sense for every ttt.

For t>0t > 0t>0, the conditional distribution function of X/tX/tX/t given X>tX > tX>t is

P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=P{t<X≤xt}P{X>t},P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \frac{P\{t < X \le xt\}}{P\{X > t\}},P{tX​≤x​X>t}=P{X>t}P{t<X≤xt}​,

which vanishes for x≤1x \le 1x≤1. For a real exponent ξ\xiξ, the conditional ξ\xiξ-th moment is

E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=1P{X>t}∫(t,∞)(yt)ξdF(y).E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \frac{1}{P\{X>t\}}\int_{(t,\infty)} \Big(\frac{y}{t}\Big)^{\xi} dF(y).E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=P{X>t}1​∫(t,∞)​(ty​)ξdF(y).

For α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the limit law Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is Γα(x)=1−(1+x)−α\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 1 - (1+x)^{-\alpha}Γα​(x)=1−(1+x)−α for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 and Γα(x)=0\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 0Γα​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0. The shifted function Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) equals 1−x−α1 - x^{-\alpha}1−x−α for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1: the Pareto law of index α\alphaα on [1,∞)[1,\infty)[1,∞). The distribution function FFF is in the domain of residual life time attraction Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) when

lim⁡t→∞P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=Γα(x−1)for all x>0.\lim_{t\to\infty} P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \Gamma_\alpha(x-1) \qquad \text{for all } x > 0 .t→∞lim​P{tX​≤x​X>t}=Γα​(x−1)for all x>0.

In Lean the tail is BalkemaDeHaan.LimitTypes.tail; the scaled conditional distribution and moment are BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.scaledResidualCDF and BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.condMoment. The limit law is BalkemaDeHaan.ParetoBounds.GammaLaw.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8(a), corrected

For F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx and 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α:

F∈Dr(Γα)  ⟺  ∫0∞yξ dF(y)<∞  and  lim⁡t→∞E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=(1−ξα)−1.F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) \iff \int_0^\infty y^\xi\, dF(y) < \infty \ \text{ and } \ \lim_{t\to\infty} E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \Big(1 - \frac{\xi}{\alpha}\Big)^{-1}.F∈Dr​(Γα​)⟺∫0∞​yξdF(y)<∞  and  t→∞lim​E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=(1−αξ​)−1.

Milestones

  1. The identity in the proof of Theorem 8(a): for x>0x > 0x>0, with a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment,
∫x∞yξdF(y)xξ(1−F(x))=ξ ∫x∞yξ−1(1−F(y)) dyxξ(1−F(x))+1,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^\xi dF(y)}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} = \xi\,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}(1-F(y))\,dy}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} + 1,xξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξdF(y)​=ξxξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξ−1(1−F(y))dy​+1,

the left side being E((X/x)ξ∣X>x)E((X/x)^\xi \mid X > x)E((X/x)ξ∣X>x). 2. The value of the limit: ∫0∞xξ dΓα(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1\int_0^\infty x^\xi\, d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1) = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1 for 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α. 3. The "only if" half: F∈Dr(Γα)F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)F∈Dr​(Γα​) implies a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and convergence of the conditional moment to (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1. 4. The "if" half, corrected: the converse.

Significance

The theorem replaces a distributional limit, required at every x>0x > 0x>0, by one numerical limit, for any order ξ∈(0,α)\xi \in (0,\alpha)ξ∈(0,α). In statistics this justifies testing or estimating heavy-tail behaviour through empirical conditional moments above a high threshold, and it identifies the limit value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1, from which α\alphaα can be read off. Combined with Theorem 4 of the same paper (Dr(Γα)=D(Φα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) = D(\Phi_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​)=D(Φα​)), it gives a moment criterion for the Fréchet domain of attraction of extreme value theory.

The result is classical and proved, by reduction to Karamata's theorem on integrals of regularly varying functions. No machine-checked proof is known. Mathlib has no theory of regular variation, no Karamata theorem and no domains of attraction, so a formal proof also produces a reusable piece of the theory of regularly varying tails: the direct and converse halves of Karamata's integral theorem for tails of probability laws.

Difficulty

Both directions pass through the asymptotics of ∫x∞yξ−1R(y) dy\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}R(y)\,dy∫x∞​yξ−1R(y)dy against xξR(x)x^\xi R(x)xξR(x). The direct half requires uniform control of R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t) over x∈(1,∞)x \in (1,\infty)x∈(1,∞) to exchange the limit t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ with an integral over an unbounded range; pointwise convergence of the tail ratio alone does not dominate the integrand. The converse half must recover regular variation of RRR from the behaviour of a single integral functional, and here the limit value matters: the page's hypothesis that the limit merely exists does not identify α\alphaα (see below), so an argument that never uses the value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1 cannot succeed.

Formalization scope

  • The law of XXX is μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx is ∀ x, 0 < μ (Set.Ioi x). All conditional quantities divide by μ (Set.Ioi t), which this hypothesis keeps nonzero.
  • "∫0∞yξdF(y)\int_0^\infty y^\xi dF(y)∫0∞​yξdF(y) is finite" is IntegrableOn (fun y => y ^ ξ) (Set.Ioi 0) μ (real power on positive bases). In the "only if" half it is part of the conclusion, never an assumption; Lean's value 000 for a non-integrable Bochner integral therefore cannot make the statements hold trivially. Milestone 1 asserts integrability of yξ−1R(y)y^{\xi-1}R(y)yξ−1R(y) on (x,∞)(x,\infty)(x,∞) as well.
  • "lim⁡t→∞\lim_{t\to\infty}limt→∞​" is Tendsto … atTop along real ttt; the limit form of Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) is required for every x>0x > 0x>0, as printed (the limit Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) is continuous, so this is weak convergence). The goal uses this explicit form, the one given after "i.e." on the page, not a separate definition of DrD_rDr​.
  • ∫0∞xξdΓα(x−1)\int_0^\infty x^\xi d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1) is the integral against a probability measure whose distribution function (ProbabilityTheory.cdf) is x↦Γα(x−1)x \mapsto \Gamma_\alpha(x-1)x↦Γα​(x−1); milestone 2 asserts such a measure exists and computes the moment for every such measure.
  • Corrected statement. The source is the published article (Annals of Probability, DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548). As printed, the "if" direction asks only that c=lim⁡E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)c = \lim E((X/t)^\xi \mid X>t)c=limE((X/t)ξ∣X>t) exist and be finite. That is false: the tail R(x)=x−βR(x) = x^{-\beta}R(x)=x−β for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1, with β>ξ\beta > \xiβ>ξ and β≠α\beta \ne \alphaβ=α, has a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1E((X/t)^\xi\mid X > t) = (1-\xi/\beta)^{-1}E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1 for all t≥1t \ge 1t≥1, but its limit law is Γβ(x−1)\Gamma_\beta(x-1)Γβ​(x−1). The goal and milestone 4 require c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1, the value the page itself states in "Then c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1". The "only if" direction is exactly the page's.
  • No hypothesis beyond the page is added; α>0\alpha > 0α>0 follows from 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α.

A complete development needs regularly varying functions, uniform convergence (or Potter bounds) for regularly varying tails, and Karamata's integral theorem with its converse; all are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of these general tools, and of the Pareto moment computation are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual life time at great age, Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970 (Theorem 1.2.1 and Remark 1.2.1).
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie and J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721434
  • I. Meilijson, Limiting properties of the mean residual lifetime function, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 43 (1972), 354–357. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177692729
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 2: The Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of the Exponential Law Is D(Λ) ∩ D₀Research Paper

Motivation

A lifetime observed only after it has survived to a high age is described by its residual life: the additional time until failure, conditional on survival so far. Reliability analysis asks whether these conditional distributions settle into a stable shape after scaling and shifting. Extreme-value theory asks a related question about the largest observation in a large independent sample. Balkema and de Haan identify an exact connection between these questions for the exponential residual-life limit and the Gumbel maxima limit in Theorem 3 of their 1974 article. The connection lets one recognize the asymptotic form of old-age lifetimes from the domain of attraction of sample maxima, provided the lifetime distribution has no finite upper endpoint.

The article studies several residual-life limits. This mission isolates its exponential case, where the limiting conditional excess has distribution function Π(x)=1−e−x\Pi(x)=1-e^{-x}Π(x)=1−e−x for x≥0x\ge0x≥0. The other continuous family Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ and the paper's discrete limits have separate hypotheses and attraction domains; they are outside this theorem.

Setting

Let XXX have a probability distribution function FFF on R\mathbb RR, and let its survival function be R(x)=Pr⁡(X>x)=1−F(x)R(x)=\Pr(X>x)=1-F(x)R(x)=Pr(X>x)=1−F(x). For a threshold ttt with R(t)>0R(t)>0R(t)>0, the residual-life distribution function is

Ft(x)=Pr⁡(X−t≤x∣X>t)=Pr⁡(t<X≤t+x)R(t).F_t(x)=\Pr(X-t\le x\mid X>t)=\frac{\Pr(t<X\le t+x)}{R(t)}.Ft​(x)=Pr(X−t≤x∣X>t)=R(t)Pr(t<X≤t+x)​.

It is zero for x<0x<0x<0. The class D0D_0D0​ consists of the distributions with R(x)>0R(x)>0R(x)>0 for every real xxx. This says that the upper endpoint is infinite and makes FtF_tFt​ meaningful at every threshold.

A law FFF belongs to the domain of residual-life attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) when F∈D0F\in D_0F∈D0​ and there are a positive scale a(t)a(t)a(t) and a shift b(t)b(t)b(t) such that Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞. The shift here acts on X−tX-tX−t, the residual lifetime. Weak convergence means convergence at every continuity point of the limiting distribution function; it does not require convergence at a jump.

For maxima, FFF belongs to the domain of attraction D(G)D(G)D(G) if there are sequences an>0a_n>0an​>0 and bnb_nbn​ for which F(anx+bn)nF(a_nx+b_n)^nF(an​x+bn​)n converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. The power is the distribution function of the maximum of nnn independent observations after the indicated normalization. The relevant limit laws are the exponential residual-life law and the Gumbel law:

Π(x)={0,x<0,1−e−x,x≥0,Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).\Pi(x)=\begin{cases}0,&x<0,\\1-e^{-x},&x\ge0,\end{cases}\qquad \Lambda(x)=e^{-e^{-x}}\quad(x\in\mathbb R).Π(x)={0,1−e−x,​x<0,x≥0,​Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).

These definitions and formulas come from the introduction and §2 of the published article, printed pages 792–793 and 798.

Formalization targets

Theorem 3: the exact domain identity

The goal is the identity stated on printed page 798:

Dr(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0.D_r(\Pi)=D(\Lambda)\cap D_0.Dr​(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0​.

Both inclusions are required. In particular, membership in the maxima domain alone is insufficient: the maximum of a sample can have a Gumbel limit even when the underlying distribution has a finite upper endpoint, while residual life cannot be conditioned on survival beyond that endpoint. The D0D_0D0​ condition is therefore part of the mathematical claim.

Supporting targets

The milestone list follows the statements used in the article's treatment of Theorem 3: the convergence-of-types remark on page 795; Lemma 3's asymptotic ratio R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1R(x-0)/R(x+0)\to1R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1; the tail criterion nR(bn+xan)→e−xnR(b_n+xa_n)\to e^{-x}nR(bn​+xan​)→e−x associated with Gumbel attraction; the inclusion D(Λ)∩D0⊆Dr(Π)D(\Lambda)\cap D_0\subseteq D_r(\Pi)D(Λ)∩D0​⊆Dr​(Π); and the passage from this tail limit on x>0x>0x>0 to all x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R. The last step retains the same normalization sequences. The article presents the criterion in one direction and relies on its converse at the end; the formal milestone records both directions with the same sequences.

Significance

The identity translates a conditional limit at a moving high threshold into a classical maxima-domain statement. A theorem about sample extremes can therefore characterize whether normalized remaining lifetime is asymptotically exponential. Conversely, observing exponential residual-life attraction determines a Gumbel maxima limit once the tail normalization is extended across the real line. The condition D0D_0D0​ marks exactly where the conditional lifetime exists; omitting it would misstate the equivalence.

The article proves the result mathematically. The Lean targets here provide a precise representation of its distributions, normalizations, and limiting claims, with Theorem 3 still posed for formal proof. A complete development would add proofs of the supporting tail and convergence-of-types statements, then establish both inclusions. The definitions of weak convergence at continuity points, survival functions, and attraction domains can also support later formalizations of the paper's Pareto and discrete cases.

Difficulty

The simple comparison F(anx+bn)n≈e−nR(anx+bn)F(a_nx+b_n)^n\approx e^{-nR(a_nx+b_n)}F(an​x+bn​)n≈e−nR(an​x+bn​) only relates the two limits after a suitable normalization is already available. The reverse direction starts with conditional residual-life convergence indexed by real thresholds, whereas maxima attraction needs a sequence indexed by integers. Sampling thresholds must preserve the tail asymptotics despite possible atoms. More seriously, the residual-life statement initially yields the required scaled-tail convergence only for positive arguments. The maxima limit must hold on the whole real line. A proof confined to that half-line cannot establish D(Λ)D(\Lambda)D(Λ); the continuation across its left boundary is the central difficulty highlighted by the article on printed pages 798–799.

Formalization scope

Lean represents FFF as the cumulative distribution function of a probability measure on R\mathbb RR and uses real-valued probabilities of intervals for RRR and FtF_tFt​. The residual-life denominator is positive wherever DrD_rDr​ is asserted. The extrema normalization is indexed by natural numbers, while the residual-life normalization is indexed by real thresholds. The scale is positive at every index; only large indices affect the limit. Weak convergence is encoded at every continuity point of the limit. As Π\PiΠ and Λ\LambdaΛ are continuous, their particular domain conditions amount to convergence at every real argument.

The paper uses two shift conventions: Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) shifts X−tX-tX−t, while the scaled-tail expressions R(bn+xan)R(b_n+xa_n)R(bn​+xan​) shift XXX. Each statement uses the convention of its source passage. The convergence-of-types remark makes explicit the antitonicity and right-continuity of its limiting tails and states its identity where both arguments lie in the half-line on which convergence is known. Gnedenko's criterion is formalized as an equivalence: the printed sentence states the forward implication, and the conclusion of Theorem 3 uses the converse. The page-799 expression R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t) has a missing RRR in the denominator; the formal statement uses the intended R(t)R(t)R(t), consistent with conditional probability and with equation (11). These choices prevent a zero-denominator quotient or an out-of-domain limit identity from trivializing a target. In particular, D0D_0D0​ is part of the definition of Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G): without it a law with a finite upper endpoint would have R(t)=0R(t)=0R(t)=0 for large ttt, the conditional distribution would be the junk quotient 0/0=00/0=00/0=0, and the domain would be mis-specified. In Lemma 3 the limit GGG is the distribution function of a probability measure, assumed continuous on all of R\mathbb RR.

The development needs measure-theoretic cumulative distributions and interval probabilities, filters for limits, and real exponential identities. The domain definitions and scaled-tail predicate are reusable beyond this theorem. Contributions that prove the stated milestones, or supply general lemmas about weak convergence and normalized tails, fit the scope.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2(5), 792–804 (1974). DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996548.
  • B. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44(3), 423–453 (1943). DOI: 10.2307/1968974.
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 3: F Is in the Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of Π_{p,c} iff It Is Tail Equivalent to a Discrete Law with Gap Ratios → e^{pc} and Tail Ratios → e^{−p}Research Paper

Residual life at great age

A component that has survived to age ttt has a residual life time X−tX - tX−t, and in reliability, actuarial work and the analysis of excesses over high thresholds the question is what its conditional law looks like when ttt is large. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974), 792–804) answered this in full generality: after an affine normalization, the only possible limit laws are the exponential law Π\PiΠ, the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, and a two-parameter family of discrete laws Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​. The continuous half of their classification became the Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem behind the peaks-over-threshold method of extreme-value statistics. The discrete half is less known, and this mission treats it: Theorem 5 of the paper (§3, p. 800) describes exactly which lifetimes are attracted to Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.

Discrete limits appear only when the normalization is allowed both a scale and a shift. They describe lifetimes that live, asymptotically, on a lattice-like set of ages whose spacing grows geometrically, with a fixed fraction of survivors failing at each lattice point.

The source is the published article in The Annals of Probability (DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548); page numbers below are the journal's.

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ, distribution function FFF and tail R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}, and assume F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every xxx. The residual life distribution function at age ttt is (1), p. 792,

Ft(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,t+x])μ((t,∞)).F_t(x) = P\{X - t \le x \mid X > t\} = \frac{\mu((t, t+x])}{\mu((t,\infty))}.Ft​(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,∞))μ((t,t+x])​.

A family of distribution functions HtH_tHt​ converges weakly to GGG if Ht(x)→G(x)H_t(x) \to G(x)Ht​(x)→G(x) at every continuity point xxx of GGG. The domain of residual life time attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (p. 798) is the set of FFF with F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx for which some a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 and b(t)b(t)b(t) give

Ft(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.F_t(b(t) + x a(t)) \to G(x) \quad \text{weakly as } t \to \infty.Ft​(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0 the discrete limit law is (p. 793), for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

Πp,c(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+log⁡(1+cx)cp]) (c>0),Πp,0(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+xp]),\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{\log(1+cx)}{cp}\Big]\Big) \ (c > 0), \qquad \Pi_{p,0}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{x}{p}\Big]\Big),Πp,c​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+cplog(1+cx)​]) (c>0),Πp,0​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+px​]),

and Πp,c(x)=0\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 0Πp,c​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0; [ ⋅ ][\,\cdot\,][⋅] is the integer part. Its tail takes the values e−p,e−2p,…e^{-p}, e^{-2p}, \dotse−p,e−2p,… and jumps at (ekpc−1)/c(e^{kpc} - 1)/c(ekpc−1)/c, k=0,1,…k = 0, 1, \dotsk=0,1,… (at kpkpkp if c=0c = 0c=0).

A distribution function F0=1−R0F_0 = 1 - R_0F0​=1−R0​ is discrete with jump sequence t0<t1<⋯t_0 < t_1 < \cdotst0​<t1​<⋯ if the tnt_ntn​ are unbounded, each carries positive mass and there is no other mass. Two distribution functions with Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for all xxx are tail equivalent if 1−F1(x)∼1−F2(x)1 - F_1(x) \sim 1 - F_2(x)1−F1​(x)∼1−F2​(x) as x→∞x \to \inftyx→∞. The conditions of §3 are

(12a)  tn+1−tntn−tn−1→epc,(12b)  R0(tn+1)R0(tn)→e−p.\text{(12a)}\ \ \frac{t_{n+1} - t_n}{t_n - t_{n-1}} \to e^{pc}, \qquad \text{(12b)}\ \ \frac{R_0(t_{n+1})}{R_0(t_n)} \to e^{-p}.(12a)  tn​−tn−1​tn+1​−tn​​→epc,(12b)  R0​(tn​)R0​(tn+1​)​→e−p.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 800)

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0,

F∈Dr(Πp,c)  ⟺  F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0 whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c}) \iff F \text{ is tail equivalent to a discrete } F_0 \text{ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).}F∈Dr​(Πp,c​)⟺F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0​ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).

Milestones

  1. (§3, pp. 799–800) A discrete FFF satisfying (12a) and (12b) lies in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​).
  2. (§3, p. 800) If F1F_1F1​ is tail equivalent to F2∈Dr(Πp,c)F_2 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F2​∈Dr​(Πp,c​), then F1∈Dr(Πp,c)F_1 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F1​∈Dr​(Πp,c​). Milestones 1 and 2 give the "if" half.
  3. (Proof of Theorem 5, p. 800) If F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​), there are bn↑∞b_n \uparrow \inftybn​↑∞ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p and a discrete F0F_0F0​, tail equivalent to FFF, with R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) at its jumps.
  4. (Proof of Theorem 5, pp. 800–801) Such an F0F_0F0​ satisfies (12b) and (12a). Milestones 3 and 4 give the "only if" half.

Significance

Theorem 5, together with Theorems 1, 3 and 4 of the paper, completes the description of residual-life attraction: every nondegenerate limit is of one of the listed types, and each type's domain of attraction is identified. For the discrete types the answer is a statement purely about the geometry of the atoms of an approximating law, which makes membership checkable for concrete lifetimes (geometric-type laws on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} fall under c=0c = 0c=0, laws on a geometric grid {λn}\{\lambda^n\}{λn} under c>0c > 0c>0). It also explains why discrete limits are invisible when only a scale normalization is allowed.

The theorem has been proved since 1974; it has not been formalized. A machine-checked development would supply weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, residual-life normalizations and tail equivalence as reusable objects, and would check a proof that the paper compresses into a page, including a convergence-of-types step on a half line that the paper cites from its own §1.

Difficulty

The "if" half is close to a computation, but the computation is about weak convergence to a step function: the normed tails converge only off the jumps, and the normalization must be extended from the jump times tnt_ntn​ to all real ages ttt.

The "only if" half is the core. From F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​) alone one has to manufacture the atoms tnt_ntn​ of a discrete law that FFF itself need not have. The obvious attempt, reading the atoms off the jumps of FFF, fails because FFF may be continuous: membership in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) only says that FFF drops by a factor close to e−pe^{-p}e−p over short stretches, relative to the normalization, and never by an intermediate factor. Making "never by an intermediate factor" precise uniformly in the age ttt, with normalizations a(t),b(t)a(t), b(t)a(t),b(t) about which nothing but their existence is known, is where the work lies; the same lack of control over a(t)a(t)a(t) is what makes the gap ratio (12a) hard to extract.

Formalization scope

A law is a measure μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; the tail R(x)R(x)R(x) is (μ (Set.Ioi x)).toReal, and Ft(x)F_t(x)Ft​(x) is μ((t, t+x]) / μ((t,∞)). Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (InDr) includes F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx, normalizations a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 for all real ttt, and "weakly" means convergence at every continuity point of GGG and nowhere else; requiring convergence at the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ would make Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) empty. Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ (piPC) is defined by cases c=0c = 0c=0 / c>0c > 0c>0 with Int.floor, so that c=0c = 0c=0 is not the junk value of a division by zero; it is used only with p>0p > 0p>0, c≥0c \ge 0c≥0. A discrete law with jump sequence ttt (IsDiscreteWithJumps) has ttt strictly increasing and tending to ∞\infty∞, positive mass at each tnt_ntn​ and no mass elsewhere. (12a) is indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Tail equivalence (TailEquiv) includes Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for both laws.

Conventions and disclosed readings:

  • The page proves the "if" direction by showing convergence to a function of the type of 1−Πp,c1 - \Pi_{p,c}1−Πp,c​; since DrD_rDr​ lets a,ba, ba,b be chosen freely, milestone 1 is stated with Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ itself.
  • The proof of Theorem 5 uses the normalization (2)–(3) of p. 794, where b(t)b(t)b(t) shifts XXX rather than X−tX - tX−t; milestone 3 only asserts the existence of the sequence bnb_nbn​ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p, so no convention enters its statement.
  • "F0F_0F0​ only takes the values F(bn)F(b_n)F(bn​)" is formalized as R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) for all nnn, the form the next paragraph of the page uses. This identity is a hypothesis of milestone 4, as on the page, and cannot be dropped: a law tail equivalent to FFF may carry extra atoms of vanishing relative mass, at which (12a) and (12b) fail.
  • The page identifies the limit of the gap ratios as the scale constant AAA of a functional equation; milestone 4 states it as epce^{pc}epc, the gap ratio of the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.
  • Theorem 5 prints "distribution fuction"; this typo is kept in the quoted text only.

No statement is trivialized: Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) is nonempty (the geometric law on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} lies in Dr(Πp,0)D_r(\Pi_{p,0})Dr​(Πp,0​)), and Theorem 5 is not a definitional unfolding, since DrD_rDr​ is defined by weak convergence and the right-hand side by discrete approximation.

A complete development needs: weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, a convergence-of-types lemma on a half line (the Remark after Lemma 1 of the paper, p. 795), and elementary facts on step functions. The first two are reusable across the whole paper and across extreme-value theory. Contributions of either half of the theorem, or of the convergence-of-types lemma, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema, L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, The Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
  • B. V. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44 (1943), 423–453. https://doi.org/10.2307/1968974
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970.
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CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Paths, Trees, and Flowers II: Invariance of the Dual — the Outer Vertices O(G) Are Exactly the Vertices Left Exposed by Some Maximum MatchingResearch Paper

Motivation

A maximum matching of a graph is a largest set of edges no two of which share a vertex. Maximum matchings are rarely unique, and a basic question is which features of them are forced by the graph. J. Edmonds' paper Paths, trees, and flowers (Canad. J. Math. 17 (1965), 449–467) gave the first polynomial-time algorithm for maximum matching in general graphs. Its Section 6, Invariance of the dual, uses the output of that algorithm to answer this question. The vertices that some maximum matching leaves uncovered, their neighbours, and the rest form a decomposition of the graph that does not depend on the matching chosen or on any choice made by the algorithm.

This decomposition is now called the Gallai–Edmonds structure theorem. T. Gallai obtained it independently (Gallai 1963, 1964; see Selected references). It is a standard tool in matching theory (Lovász–Plummer, Matching Theory, 1986): it determines the minimum odd-set cover of Section 5 of the same paper canonically (6.7), and it underlies the Tutte–Berge formula and the analysis of factor-critical graphs.

Timeline. Berge (1957) characterized maximum matchings by the absence of augmenting paths. Gallai (1963–1964) and Edmonds (1965, §6) proved the structure theorem; Edmonds' proof goes through the trees and shrunken blossoms of his algorithm. Witzgall's argument, reported in 6.6, simplifies the converse half.

Setting

A graph GGG has a finite set of vertices and a finite set of edges, each edge meeting exactly two distinct vertices; parallel edges are allowed. A vertex is exposed for a set of edges MMM if no edge of MMM meets it.

An alternating tree JJJ is a tree (a connected graph with one more vertex than edges) whose vertices are split into inner and outer vertices, so that every edge joins an inner vertex to an outer one and every inner vertex meets exactly two edges of JJJ. A planted tree for MMM with root rrr is an alternating tree such that M∩JM \cap JM∩J is a maximum matching of JJJ and rrr, the vertex of JJJ left exposed by M∩JM \cap JM∩J, is exposed for MMM.

Shrinking a vertex set UUU replaces UUU by a single pseudovertex. Edges inside UUU disappear; edges leaving UUU keep their identity and now meet the pseudovertex. The set UUU is the pseudovertex's complete expansion. A blossom for MMM is an odd circuit BBB for which M∩BM \cap BM∩B is a maximum matching of BBB. Shrinking blossoms repeatedly, inside graphs already shrunk, gives the graph G∗=G/PG^* = G/\mathcal PG∗=G/P, where P\mathcal PP is a partition of the vertices into blossom sets.

Construction 6.0. Let MMM be a maximum matching. Run the matching algorithm on (G,M)(G, M)(G,M) without augmenting. It grows planted trees J1,…,JnJ_1, \dots, J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ in G∗G^*G∗, one from each exposed vertex, and shrinks blossoms as they appear. The output satisfies:

  1. the trees are disjoint and planted for M∗=M/PM^* = M/\mathcal PM∗=M/P;
  2. every exposed vertex of G∗G^*G∗ lies in some tree;
  3. JiJ_iJi​ is Hungarian in G∗−J1−⋯−Ji−1G^* - J_1 - \dots - J_{i-1}G∗−J1​−⋯−Ji−1​: its outer vertices are joined only to its own inner vertices or to earlier trees;
  4. every pseudovertex is an outer vertex of some JiJ_iJi​.

The outer vertices O(G)O(G)O(G) are the vertices whose part is a one-vertex outer vertex of some JiJ_iJi​, together with all vertices of pseudovertex expansions. The inner vertices I(G)I(G)I(G) are the vertices whose part is an inner vertex of some JiJ_iJi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.2 (a)–(c)

For every maximum matching MMM and every output of construction 6.0:

(a)v∈O(G)  ⟺  ∃ M′ maximum matching of G with v exposed for M′,\text{(a)}\quad v \in O(G) \iff \exists\, M' \text{ maximum matching of } G \text{ with } v \text{ exposed for } M',(a)v∈O(G)⟺∃M′ maximum matching of G with v exposed for M′, (b)v∈I(G)  ⟺  v∉O(G) and v is adjacent to a vertex of O(G),\text{(b)}\quad v \in I(G) \iff v \notin O(G) \text{ and } v \text{ is adjacent to a vertex of } O(G),(b)v∈I(G)⟺v∈/O(G) and v is adjacent to a vertex of O(G), (c)u,v in the same part of P  ⟺  u=v or u,v in the same component of O(G)+,\text{(c)}\quad u,v \text{ in the same part of } \mathcal P \iff u = v \text{ or } u, v \text{ in the same component of } O(G)^+,(c)u,v in the same part of P⟺u=v or u,v in the same component of O(G)+,

where O(G)+O(G)^+O(G)+ is the subgraph induced on O(G)O(G)O(G).

Milestones

  • 4.1–4.2: the maximum matchings of an alternating tree.
  • 4.14: lifting a matching through the complete expansion of a pseudovertex, with a free choice of the exposed vertex.
  • 4.15, extension, in the forest form of 4.20.
  • 6.4: adjacency of outer and inner vertices.
  • 6.2 (b) and 6.2 (c) separately.
  • 6.5: every outer vertex is exposable.
  • 6.6: for non-outer vvv meeting e∈Me \in Me∈M, M−eM - eM−e is maximum in G−vG - vG−v.
  • 6.6: only outer vertices are ever exposed.

A companion item states that construction 6.0 succeeds for every maximum matching.

Significance

The result. Part (a) characterizes, without reference to any algorithm, the vertices that a maximum matching can miss. Parts (b) and (c) then make I(G)I(G)I(G) and G∗G^*G∗ invariants of GGG, as 6.1 announces: "the graph G∗G^*G∗ is uniquely determined by GGG alone". Several consequences rest on this invariance: the unique preferred minimum odd-set cover (6.7), the Tutte–Berge deficiency formula read off from ∣I(G)∣|I(G)|∣I(G)∣ and the components of O(G)+O(G)^+O(G)+, and the classification of graphs into those with and without perfect matchings in terms of a canonical barrier.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 1964, but the proof in this paper has not been machine-checked. A formalization requires the paper's own objects: multigraphs with edge identity preserved under contraction, nested blossom shrinking, and alternating and planted trees. These are the objects of Edmonds' blossom algorithm, and they are reusable for any formal treatment of it. Mathlib contains Tutte's theorem for simple graphs but neither shrinking nor the Gallai–Edmonds decomposition.

Difficulty

The statement is about one particular output of a nondeterministic process. The partition into trees depends on the order in which they were grown, and the non-matching tree edges and the blossoms chosen are arbitrary (6.1). An outer vertex of a later tree may be joined to an inner vertex of an earlier one, so the individual trees are not Hungarian in G∗G^*G∗. The tempting argument "each tree is Hungarian, so apply the tree lemma tree by tree" therefore fails. Only the ordered condition, applied in both directions as in 6.4, shows that the outer vertices of all trees together are adjacent only to inner vertices. Moving between GGG and G∗G^*G∗ requires lifting matchings through nested blossoms, which means an induction over the nesting rather than over a single odd circuit.

Formalization scope

Graphs are the published EdmondsMatching65.Polyhedron.Graph V E: finite vertex and edge types, an unordered pair of distinct ends for each edge, parallel edges allowed. Matchings are its IsMatching, and "maximum" means maximum cardinality. A matching of a subgraph is a matching of GGG contained in the subgraph's edges. Paths are not needed.

Shrinking is contraction along a Finpartition of the vertex set. The vertices of G∗G^*G∗ are the parts, and the edges of G∗G^*G∗ are the edges of GGG joining different parts. Blossom sets are an inductive predicate recording the nested odd circuits directly; there is no tower of types.

The output of 6.0 is the structure Config60. It records exactly the invariants the construction establishes and nothing more, and the goal is stated for every such configuration. The configuration must not be weakened. Dropping density, the ordered Hungarian condition, the outerness of pseudovertices or the blossom condition on the parts makes (a) or (b) false. Taking the JiJ_iJi​ to be arbitrary trees, or P\mathcal PP an arbitrary partition, would state a different and false theorem. The goal is not vacuous: exists_config_6_0 asserts that a configuration exists for every maximum matching. Shrinking is defined in 4.9 only for connected sets, so the forest form of 4.15 assumes connected parts.

Welcome contributions: the general theory of alternating trees and Hungarian forests (4.2, 4.17 and their forest forms), the lifting lemma 4.14 for nested odd circuits, and a proof of exists_config_6_0.

Selected references

  • J. Edmonds, Paths, trees, and flowers, Canadian Journal of Mathematics 17 (1965), 449–467. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1965-045-4
  • C. Berge, Two theorems in graph theory, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 43 (1957), 842–844. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.43.9.842
  • T. Gallai, Kritische Graphen II, Publ. Math. Inst. Hungar. Acad. Sci. 8 (1963), 373–395; Maximale Systeme unabhängiger Kanten, ibid. 9 (1964), 401–413.
  • L. Lovász and M. D. Plummer, Matching Theory, North-Holland, 1986 (reprinted AMS Chelsea, 2009). https://doi.org/10.1090/chel/367
  • A. Schrijver, Combinatorial Optimization: Polyhedra and Efficiency, Springer, 2003, Chapter 24.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryConvex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Cooperative Fuzzy Games 4: The Fuzzy Core of an Exchange Economy Coincides with Its Set of Walras EquilibriaResearch Paper

Motivation

The core of an exchange economy is the set of allocations that no group of consumers can improve upon by trading only among themselves. The Walras equilibria (competitive equilibria) are the allocations supported by a price system at which every consumer maximizes preference on a budget set. Every Walras equilibrium is in the core, but for a fixed finite economy the core is usually much larger. Edgeworth (1881) conjectured that the core shrinks to the competitive allocations as the number of traders grows; Debreu and Scarf (1963) proved this for replica economies, and Aumann (1964) proved exact equality for an atomless continuum of traders.

Jean-Pierre Aubin's Cooperative Fuzzy Games (Math. Oper. Res. 6 (1981) 1–13) gives a third route to the same conclusion, with a fixed finite number of consumers. Coalitions are allowed to be fuzzy: a consumer may join with any rate of participation between 0 and 1. Once all fuzzy coalitions may block, the core of the economy, now called the fuzzy core, is exactly the set of Walras equilibria (Theorem 4.1, p. 6). The paper presents this as a slight modification of the Debreu–Scarf theorem; in Remark 4.2 it observes that Debreu–Scarf's replica coalitions correspond to the rational points of the cube [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n.

This mission formalizes §4 of the paper. It is the fourth mission of a series on the paper; the others treat the cores of fuzzy games with and without side payments and the values of smooth fuzzy games.

Setting

There are nnn consumers i∈N={1,…,n}i \in N = \{1,\dots,n\}i∈N={1,…,n} and lll commodities. Consumer iii consumes bundles in R+l\mathbb{R}^l_+R+l​, ranks them by a preference relation ≽i\succcurlyeq_i≽i​ (with strict part ≻i\succ_i≻i​), and owns a set Y(i)⊂RlY(i) \subset \mathbb{R}^lY(i)⊂Rl of possible initial endowments. Each Y(i)Y(i)Y(i) is closed, convex and comprehensive: whenever y∈Y(i)y \in Y(i)y∈Y(i) and z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, also y−z∈Y(i)y - z \in Y(i)y−z∈Y(i).

A fuzzy coalition is a vector τ∈[0,1]n\tau \in [0,1]^nτ∈[0,1]n; τi\tau_iτi​ is the rate at which consumer iii participates, and Aτ={i:τi>0}A_\tau = \{i : \tau_i > 0\}Aτ​={i:τi​>0} is the set of participants. The coalition τ\tauτ disposes of the endowments

Y(τ)=∑i∈Nτi Y(i),Y(\tau) = \sum_{i \in N} \tau_i\, Y(i),Y(τ)=i∈N∑​τi​Y(i),

and its allocations are the families xτ=(xτi)i∈Aτx_\tau = (x_\tau^i)_{i \in A_\tau}xτ​=(xτi​)i∈Aτ​​ of bundles xτi∈R+lx_\tau^i \in \mathbb{R}^l_+xτi​∈R+l​ with ∑iτixτi∈Y(τ)\sum_i \tau_i x_\tau^i \in Y(\tau)∑i​τi​xτi​∈Y(τ); this set is X(τ)X(\tau)X(τ). The allocations of the whole economy are X(N)=X(τN)X(N) = X(\tau^N)X(N)=X(τN), τN=(1,…,1)\tau^N = (1,\dots,1)τN=(1,…,1).

An allocation x∈X(N)x \in X(N)x∈X(N) is in the fuzzy core if there is no nonzero fuzzy coalition τ\tauτ and allocation xτ∈X(τ)x_\tau \in X(\tau)xτ​∈X(τ) with xτi≻ixix_\tau^i \succ_i x^ixτi​≻i​xi for every i∈Aτi \in A_\taui∈Aτ​.

The income of consumer iii at prices p∈Rlp \in \mathbb{R}^lp∈Rl is ri(p)=sup⁡y∈Y(i)p⋅yr_i(p) = \sup_{y \in Y(i)} p\cdot yri​(p)=supy∈Y(i)​p⋅y, and the budget set is Bi(p)={x∈R+l:p⋅x≤ri(p)}B_i(p) = \{x \in \mathbb{R}^l_+ : p \cdot x \le r_i(p)\}Bi​(p)={x∈R+l​:p⋅x≤ri​(p)}. An allocation xˉ∈X(N)\bar x \in X(N)xˉ∈X(N) is a Walras equilibrium if some price pˉ∈Rl\bar p \in \mathbb{R}^lpˉ​∈Rl satisfies, for every iii,

pˉ⋅xˉi=ri(pˉ)andxˉi≽ix  for all x∈Bi(pˉ).\bar p \cdot \bar x^i = r_i(\bar p) \qquad\text{and}\qquad \bar x^i \succcurlyeq_i x \ \text{ for all } x \in B_i(\bar p).pˉ​⋅xˉi=ri​(pˉ​)andxˉi≽i​x  for all x∈Bi​(pˉ​).

Assumption (1) of §4 requires each preference to be continuous and convex, with x≻iy⇒αx+(1−α)y≻iyx \succ_i y \Rightarrow \alpha x + (1-\alpha) y \succ_i yx≻i​y⇒αx+(1−α)y≻i​y for α∈ ]0,1[\alpha \in\, ]0,1[α∈]0,1[; no consumer to be satiated; and each Y(i)Y(i)Y(i) to contain a vector with all coordinates strictly positive.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

Under assumption (1),

fuzzy core  =  {Walras equilibria}.\text{fuzzy core} \;=\; \{\text{Walras equilibria}\}.fuzzy core={Walras equilibria}.

Milestones, from the proof of Theorem 4.1

  1. Every Walras equilibrium belongs to the fuzzy core.
  2. For an allocation xˉ∈X(N)\bar x \in X(N)xˉ∈X(N), each set Q(i)=Y(i)−{x∈R+l:x≻ixˉi}Q(i) = Y(i) - \{x \in \mathbb{R}^l_+ : x \succ_i \bar x^i\}Q(i)=Y(i)−{x∈R+l​:x≻i​xˉi} is nonempty.
  3. If xˉ\bar xxˉ belongs to the fuzzy core, then
0∉co⁡(⋃i=1nQ(i)).0 \notin \operatorname{co}\Big(\bigcup_{i=1}^n Q(i)\Big).0∈/co(i=1⋃n​Q(i)).

The remaining step of the paper, from milestone 3 to the existence of the equilibrium price, is stated there only as "by known arguments" and is left to the solver as part of the goal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.1 is a core equivalence theorem for an economy with finitely many consumers and no replication or continuum of traders. It identifies the competitive allocations as exactly the allocations that are stable against partial coalitions. It also makes visible which coalitions matter: Remark 4.1 attributes the equivalence to the fact that all fuzzy coalitions are allowed to form, so that the set of coalitions is convex. The same fuzzy-coalition device underlies the nonemptiness results for cores of fuzzy games in §5–§7 of the paper.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, in one paragraph that defers its final step to "known arguments". To our knowledge neither the theorem nor the Debreu–Scarf or Aumann core equivalence theorems have been formalized in Lean. A complete development provides a reusable model of an exchange economy with preference relations and comprehensive endowment sets, a checked argument from separation to equilibrium prices, and a template for the classical core equivalence theorems.

Difficulty

The inclusion of the Walras equilibria in the fuzzy core is a budget computation. The converse is the content of the theorem: from the mere absence of improving fuzzy coalitions, a single price vector must be produced that works for all consumers simultaneously. Separating consumer by consumer gives one price per consumer, not a common one, so the coalitional structure has to enter before any price exists. Once a candidate price is available, it still has to be shown nonnegative, each equilibrium bundle has to exhaust its owner's income, and no bundle in a budget set may be strictly preferred; each of these uses a different part of assumption (1), and the paper leaves all three to "known arguments". The incomes ri(p)r_i(p)ri​(p) may be +∞+\infty+∞ for prices with negative coordinates, so finiteness at the equilibrium price is part of the conclusion, not an assumption.

Formalization scope

Consumers are Fin n, commodities Fin l; an allocation is a function Fin n → Fin l → ℝ, a price a vector Fin l → ℝ, and p⋅y=∑kpkykp \cdot y = \sum_k p_k y_kp⋅y=∑k​pk​yk​. A single definitions file (FuzzyGames.Walras.Basic) holds the economy, its assumptions, Y(τ)Y(\tau)Y(τ), X(τ)X(\tau)X(τ), the fuzzy core, incomes, budget sets, Walras equilibria and the sets Q(i)Q(i)Q(i).

The formalization commits to the following readings, each recorded in the items' Formalization Notes:

  • Complete preferences. The paper's "preference preordering" is read, as in Debreu's usage, as a reflexive, transitive and complete relation on R+l\mathbb{R}^l_+R+l​. The relation is a predicate on Rl\mathbb{R}^lRl, but every assumption and every use is restricted to R+l\mathbb{R}^l_+R+l​.
  • Continuity means closed upper and lower contour sets in R+l\mathbb{R}^l_+R+l​; convexity means convex upper contour sets, plus the condition of (1)(i).
  • Assumption (1)(i) is printed with x≽yx \succcurlyeq yx≽y in the premise, which fails at x=yx = yx=y; it is stated with x≻yx \succ yx≻y.
  • Blocking is strict and by nonzero coalitions. The fuzzy-core definition is printed with xτi≽xix_\tau^i \succcurlyeq x^ixτi​≽xi; the proof uses ≻\succ≻, and the weak version would let every allocation block itself. The coalition τ=0\tau = 0τ=0 is excluded, since its condition over Aτ=∅A_\tau = \emptysetAτ​=∅ is vacuous.
  • Dummy coordinates. An allocation of τ\tauτ is a full family of nnn bundles; those with τi=0\tau_i = 0τi​=0 are multiplied by 000, unconstrained and never compared.
  • Y(τ)Y(\tau)Y(τ) is Mathlib's pointwise Minkowski sum of scaled sets.
  • Incomes take values in the extended reals (EReal), so that ri(p)=+∞r_i(p) = +\inftyri​(p)=+∞ is represented and never replaced by a default value.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the assumptions are satisfiable, and a sorry-free check (one consumer, one commodity, x≽y  ⟺  x≥yx \succcurlyeq y \iff x \ge yx≽y⟺x≥y, Y(1)=(−∞,1]Y(1) = (-\infty, 1]Y(1)=(−∞,1]) verifies them together with a Walras equilibrium, so neither side of the goal is empty by construction.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a separation-to-prices lemma for comprehensive endowment sets, and general facts about complete continuous convex preferences on R+l\mathbb{R}^l_+R+l​, which are reusable for any general equilibrium development.

Selected references

  • J.-P. Aubin, Cooperative fuzzy games, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1) (1981) 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.1
  • G. Debreu, H. Scarf, A limit theorem on the core of an economy, International Economic Review 4(3) (1963) 235–246. https://doi.org/10.2307/2525290
  • R. J. Aumann, Markets with a continuum of traders, Econometrica 32 (1964) 39–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913732
  • G. Debreu, Theory of Value, Cowles Foundation Monograph 17, Yale University Press, 1959.
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Economic Lot Sizing: An O(n log n) Algorithm That Runs in Linear Time in the Wagner-Whitin Case 2: The Greedy Forward Dual Solution Is Optimal and Its Value Is the Lot-Sizing CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Economic lot sizing asks when to produce goods across a finite planning horizon when demand in each period is known. Producing in a period incurs a fixed setup charge and a marginal cost per unit, while goods may be produced before the period in which they are needed. Such a decision has to balance paying another setup charge against producing more units earlier. The model is a standard setting for studying how dynamic programming and linear optimization describe the same planning decision. Wagelmans, Van Hoesel and Kolen study faster algorithms for this model and, in Section 4, connect the optimal lot-sizing cost to a greedy solution of a dual program Wagelmans et al. (1992).

The dual connection is useful in its own right. It supplies a certificate for the cost returned by the forward dynamic program: a feasible dual vector attains that cost. The paper allows demand to vanish in some periods, which makes the dual values at those periods free and forces care in defining the dynamic program. The mission targets precisely that case.

Setting

There are periods 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n. Demand dtd_tdt​ and setup cost fif_ifi​ are nonnegative for the periods in the horizon. The marginal production cost cic_ici​ is any real number. Write di,j=∑t=ijdtd_{i,j}=\sum_{t=i}^j d_tdi,j​=∑t=ij​dt​ for cumulative demand from iii through jjj. Values at period zero and beyond the horizon are bookkeeping only; every optimization constraint concerns periods 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n.

The forward lot-sizing cost F(j)F(j)F(j) describes the least cost of serving periods 1,…,j1,\ldots,j1,…,j under the zero-inventory property cited by the paper. Its recursion starts with F(0)=0F(0)=0F(0)=0. If dj=0d_j=0dj​=0, no new production is needed and F(j)=F(j−1)F(j)=F(j-1)F(j)=F(j−1). If dj>0d_j>0dj​>0, the last production setup may occur at some i≤ji\le ji≤j, giving

F(j)=min⁡1≤i≤j(fi+cidi,j+F(i−1)).F(j)=\min_{1\le i\le j}\bigl(f_i+c_i d_{i,j}+F(i-1)\bigr).F(j)=1≤i≤jmin​(fi​+ci​di,j​+F(i−1)).

This piecewise definition matters even when only one period has zero demand. Taking the displayed minimum at dj=0d_j=0dj​=0 would charge a setup that need not occur.

Program D′ chooses free real values v1,…,vnv_1,\ldots,v_nv1​,…,vn​ to maximize ∑t=1ndtvt\sum_{t=1}^n d_tv_t∑t=1n​dt​vt​, subject to

∑t=indtmax⁡{0,vt−ci}≤fi(1≤i≤n).\sum_{t=i}^n d_t\max\{0,v_t-c_i\}\le f_i \qquad(1\le i\le n).t=i∑n​dt​max{0,vt​−ci​}≤fi​(1≤i≤n).

“Free” means there is no nonnegativity constraint on vtv_tvt​. The paper obtains D′ from the dual of the linear relaxation of its simple plant location formulation, using the variables of Formulation III Wagelmans et al., pp. S147, S152–S153. The mission takes D′ as the defined optimization problem.

The greedy forward rule visits periods in increasing order. At a period with dj>0d_j>0dj​>0, the chosen value is the minimum of the upper bounds left by the constraints indexed i≤ji\le ji≤j:

vj=min⁡1≤i≤j(ci+fi−∑t=ij−1dtmax⁡{0,vt−ci}dj).v_j=\min_{1\le i\le j} \left(c_i+\frac{f_i-\sum_{t=i}^{j-1}d_t\max\{0,v_t-c_i\}}{d_j}\right).vj​=1≤i≤jmin​(ci​+dj​fi​−∑t=ij−1​dt​max{0,vt​−ci​}​).

When dj=0d_j=0dj​=0, the rule places no restriction on vjv_jvj​. This matches the paper's statement that it may be assigned an arbitrary value. One concrete recursive vector in the definitions sets each such value to zero, but the goal covers every assignment.

Formalization targets

The goal says that every vector satisfying the greedy rule is feasible for D′, agrees with the dynamic-programming cost at every prefix, and is optimal among all feasible D′ vectors:

∑t=1jdtvt=F(j)(1≤j≤n),∑t=1ndtut≤∑t=1ndtvtfor every feasible u.\sum_{t=1}^j d_tv_t=F(j)\quad(1\le j\le n), \qquad \sum_{t=1}^n d_tu_t\le\sum_{t=1}^n d_tv_t \quad\text{for every feasible }u.t=1∑j​dt​vt​=F(j)(1≤j≤n),t=1∑n​dt​ut​≤t=1∑n​dt​vt​for every feasible u.

The milestone path follows the Section 4 statements: feasibility of the greedy vector; decreasing greedy values across positive-demand periods; the prefix upper bound for any feasible dual vector; and Equation (2), which expresses a greedy prefix value using a minimizing production period. Equation (2) is stated with the induction hypothesis that appears immediately before it in the paper. The goal combines these claims without treating the desired value identity as a hypothesis.

Significance

The result identifies a dual certificate whose value matches the forward lot-sizing cost. It also explains why a greedy forward assignment can solve D′ despite each constraint linking the current value with all later periods. The full-horizon identity recovers the cost F(n)F(n)F(n), and the comparison with every feasible vector makes the word “optimal” precise. The paper additionally says that this dual computation directly provides an optimal primal solution; this mission does not encode that reconstruction because it would require the primal formulation and its correspondence to FFF Wagelmans et al., p. S153.

A formal proof would provide a reusable finite-horizon certificate theorem for this dual formulation and a careful treatment of empty and zero-demand prefixes. The paper's result is already proved mathematically. The Lean files in this proposal state the goal and its milestones; their theorem proofs remain to be supplied by solvers. Related platform goals about the convex hull of other lot-sizing formulations and the Federgruen–Tzur forward algorithm concern different objects, so they are credited as neighboring work rather than imported as this theorem.

Difficulty

A current greedy value is limited by every earlier production index, and feasibility must still hold for the entire horizon, not merely for the constraints truncated at the current period. Equality with F(j)F(j)F(j) also has to survive periods with zero demand, where the dual coordinate is unrestricted but its weighted contribution vanishes. The forward recurrence has a separate branch at exactly those periods. A formulation that assumes every demand is strictly positive would avoid the delicate case and would miss a feature the authors explicitly retain.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the horizon by natural-number indices 1,…,n1,\ldots,n1,…,n and the demand, setup, marginal-cost and dual sequences by functions N→R\mathbb N\to\mathbb RN→R. Finite sums use closed intervals; the sum before period jjj uses [i,j)[i,j)[i,j), so it is empty when i=ji=ji=j. Minima are over the nonempty finite set {1,…,j}\{1,\ldots,j\}{1,…,j}, only when j≥1j\ge1j≥1. The horizon n=0n=0n=0 has empty sums and no constraints. The cost and dual values are real, with no sign condition on cic_ici​ or viv_ivi​.

Several informal phrases are made explicit. “The solution is feasible” means every D′ constraint through nnn holds. “Optimal” includes feasibility, every prefix identity, and comparison with every feasible dual vector. “Can be given an arbitrary value” is represented by no greedy-rule condition at zero demand; the theorem quantifies over all vectors that satisfy the positive-demand conditions. The paper states monotonicity for consecutive nonzero-demand periods; the milestone uses any two positive-demand periods, skipping zero-demand positions so it holds for every choice of their dual values. The weak-duality milestone spells out the paper's reference to “duality and the structure of D′” as an inequality for each feasible vector and prefix.

The identification of FFF with the optimum of the primal lot-sizing model relies on the zero-inventory property cited by the authors and is not separately formalized. Neither the equivalence of Program D and D′ nor the recovery of a primal production plan is an item here. The paper's running-time claims, including O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) for the greedy forward algorithm and O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) for its backward algorithm, are outside the scope: the paper does not fix a machine model or constants for them. A definition of FFF as the optimum of D′ would make the value identity circular; the proposal defines it by the paper's forward recursion instead. The backward algorithm of pp. S153–S155 belongs to a separate development.

Selected references

  • A. Wagelmans, S. Van Hoesel and A. Kolen, Economic Lot Sizing: An O(n log n) Algorithm That Runs in Linear Time in the Wagner-Whitin Case, Operations Research 40, Supplement 1, 1992, S145–S156. DOI
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