Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies I: The Renewal Closed Form for the Discounted Cost of a Stationary (s, S) PolicyResearch Paper
Motivation
The periodic-review inventory problem with a fixed ordering cost is one of the basic models of operations research. A firm reviews its stock once per period, may order at a cost per order plus a unit cost, and then faces a random demand; unmet demand is backlogged. Scarf (1960) and Iglehart (1963) showed that for this model an policy is optimal: order up to whenever the stock falls below , and otherwise do nothing. That result tells a manager what shape a good policy has, but not which pair to use.
Veinott and Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies (Management Science 11 (1965) 525–552), gave the first practical algorithm for computing an optimal pair when demand is discrete. The algorithm rests on a closed form, their Eq. (11), for the discounted cost of an arbitrary stationary policy, obtained by a renewal argument in their Section 3. The same closed form, in the undiscounted limit, is the classical expression of the long-run average cost of an policy used throughout inventory theory textbooks.
Timeline:
- 1958: Arrow, Karlin and Scarf collect the early dynamic inventory models.
- 1960: Scarf proves optimality of policies in the finite-horizon model via -convexity.
- 1963: Iglehart extends optimality to the infinite-horizon model.
- 1965: Veinott and Wagner derive the renewal closed form (10)–(11) and the bounds and search procedure built on it.
Setting
Demands are independent random variables on with common distribution , . Write for the -fold convolution of ( is the point mass at ) and for its distribution function, so .
In period the stock before ordering is and the stock after ordering is ; then . With the unit purchase cost eliminated as in the paper's Eq. (2), the cost of period is , where is the set-up cost, , for , and is the one-period cost. Period is discounted by with .
A stationary policy, for integers , sets if and otherwise. Its total expected discounted cost from is
and its equivalent cost per period is .
The renewal quantities are
the latter being the discount renewal function,
If is the first period in which cumulative demand exceeds , then is the expected discounted one-period cost over periods from stock without ordering, and .
Formalization targets
Goal: Eq. (11)
With ,
Milestones
- Appendix §1: for with .
- Eq. (8): .
- Eq. (9): .
- The renewal equation .
- for .
- for .
- Eq. (10): the closed form of with denominator .
Significance
Eq. (11) turns the cost of an policy, an infinite series over the trajectories of a controlled Markov chain, into a finite expression in , and the renewal sequence , which the paper computes by a one-line recursion. Everything in the paper's Section 4 builds on it: the search for an optimal pair minimizes over a finite box, and the undiscounted limit gives the long-run average cost .
The result is classical and proved in the paper. What this mission adds is a machine-checked derivation from the definition of the policy's expected cost, including the renewal step, which the paper states in one sentence ("a renewal of the process takes place"). It also produces a reusable Lean layer: discrete convolution powers, the discount renewal function, and the law of an -controlled inventory chain. To the best of our knowledge none of these is formalized in Mathlib or on the platform.
Difficulty
The paper's argument conditions on the random time at which the process renews and uses the strong Markov property at that time. In the formalization, is defined as a sum over periods of expectations under the law of . Relating that sum to one that splits at the random time requires either a stopping-time decomposition of the chain or an explicit accounting of the law of before and after the first order. Neither is a direct computation. A second difficulty is the interchange of the infinite sum over periods with the sum over states , which has infinitely many states reachable (demand is unbounded below). The renewal equation (milestone 4) alone does not determine without the fact that for , which comes from (9).
Formalization scope
- Namespace
VeinottWagnerSS.RenewalCost. Stock levels are integers, demands natural numbers; and enter , , throughInt.toNat, which is exact because the statements assume or . - Reduced model. The primitives are , , and , as in the paper's Eq. (2): the unit purchase cost is set to and the holding–penalty cost is replaced by .
- Demand is a real function , non-negative and summing to .
- The cost is the expected discounted cost of the controlled chain: the law of is built recursively from and the transition . It is not defined by (10) or by the renewal equations, and not as the solution of a fixed-point equation. A formalization in which any of milestones 4–7 or the goal holds by definition is ruled out.
- Series are real
tsums. is defined by the series (7) and by the first line of (9), i.e. through the law ; the paper's derivations of these series from are not formalized. For all series converge for every , because after period the stock after ordering lies in the finite set . - Hypotheses. Milestones 1–3 assume and , the paper's standing assumption on p. 533. Milestones 4–7 and the goal assume , and . The paper's standing assumptions that is convex and tends to as are not imposed: the statements hold for every when , and the paper's derivation does not use them. This is a disclosed generalization.
- Printed slips. None found in the formalized statements.
- Not formalized: the recursion (A1) for , the limit (12) as , and the stationary analysis (13)–(20).
Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, general lemmas on discrete renewal sequences and convolution powers, and a first-passage decomposition for integer-valued Markov chains, which is reusable beyond this mission.
Selected references
- A. F. Veinott Jr. and H. M. Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(5), 525–552, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.5.525
- H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
- D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2), 259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
- K. J. Arrow, S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.