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Operations Research

2,526 missions · 1,202 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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EconomicsOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain I: Under Complete Information the Retailer Finances the Entire Capacity Iff β ≥ β̲, and β̲ < 1Research Paper

Motivation

Firms in a supply chain often hold equity in one another. A retailer may own a minority stake in a supplier without controlling it: the stake is passive, but it changes what the retailer cares about, because part of the supplier's profit now accrues to her. Avinadav and Shamir (Management Science, 2023) study how such partial vertical ownership (PVO) affects two classic frictions of decentralized supply chains: the supplier's under-investment in capacity, and the retailer's incentive to distort the demand information she shares. This mission formalizes the paper's benchmark result, Theorem 1, which settles the capacity question when both firms know the market state. It is the reference point against which the paper measures every asymmetric-information equilibrium, and a companion mission treats the paper's cheap-talk result (Theorem 2).

The question belongs to the literature on capacity investment with advance orders and on cross-ownership in vertical relations; the paper's Sections 1–2 survey it. The result itself is a threshold statement of a familiar newsvendor type, but in a model where the decision maker's objective mixes her own operating profit with a fraction of her supplier's.

Setting

A supplier builds a capacity KKK at unit cost ccc before the selling season. After demand DDD is realized, the retailer orders min⁡(K,max⁡(qadv,D))\min(K, \max(q^{adv}, D))min(K,max(qadv,D)) at the wholesale price www and sells at the retail price rrr, where r>w>cr > w > cr>w>c. Here qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0 is an advance order: a quantity the retailer commits to before the supplier builds capacity, and which the supplier must cover, K≥qadvK \ge q^{adv}K≥qadv. Unmet demand is lost and leftovers have no value.

Demand in market state i∈{L,H}i \in \{L, H\}i∈{L,H} is Di=μi+εD_i = \mu_i + \varepsilonDi​=μi​+ε with 0<μL<μH0 < \mu_L < \mu_H0<μL​<μH​, where the shock ε\varepsilonε has mean zero, cumulative distribution function FFF, a density, and support (ε‾,εˉ)(\underline\varepsilon, \bar\varepsilon)(ε​,εˉ) with μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L + \underline\varepsilon \ge 0μL​+ε​≥0. The expected profits are

πs(K∣μi,qadv)=E[wmin⁡(K,max⁡(μi+ε,qadv))−cK],\pi_s(K \mid \mu_i, q^{adv}) = \mathbb E\big[w\min(K, \max(\mu_i + \varepsilon, q^{adv})) - cK\big],πs​(K∣μi​,qadv)=E[wmin(K,max(μi​+ε,qadv))−cK], πr(qadv,K∣μi)=E[(r−w)min⁡(μi+ε,K)−wmax⁡(qadv−μi−ε,0)].\pi_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) = \mathbb E\big[(r - w)\min(\mu_i + \varepsilon, K) - w\max(q^{adv} - \mu_i - \varepsilon, 0)\big].πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=E[(r−w)min(μi​+ε,K)−wmax(qadv−μi​−ε,0)].

The retailer owns a share β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0, 1]β∈[0,1] of the supplier and maximizes the accounting payoff

vr(qadv,K∣μi)=πr(qadv,K∣μi)+β πs(K∣μi,qadv).v_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) = \pi_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) + \beta\,\pi_s(K \mid \mu_i, q^{adv}).vr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)+βπs​(K∣μi​,qadv).

The relevant critical fractiles are zs=1−c/wz_s = 1 - c/wzs​=1−c/w (supplier), zr=1−w/rz_r = 1 - w/rzr​=1−w/r (retailer without holdings) and

zr(β)=1−(1−zr)(1−βzs)=zr+βzs(1−zr).z_r(\beta) = 1 - (1 - z_r)(1 - \beta z_s) = z_r + \beta z_s (1 - z_r).zr​(β)=1−(1−zr​)(1−βzs​)=zr​+βzs​(1−zr​).

Under complete information both firms observe iii. The supplier answers qadvq^{adv}qadv with the capacity KiCI(qadv)K_i^{CI}(q^{adv})KiCI​(qadv), equal to μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​) if qadv≤μi+F−1(zs)q^{adv} \le \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)qadv≤μi​+F−1(zs​) and to qadvq^{adv}qadv otherwise (5). The retailer compares two options: order nothing and accept μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​), or order q∗∈arg⁡max⁡qvr(q,q∣μi)q^* \in \arg\max_{q} v_r(q, q \mid \mu_i)q∗∈argmaxq​vr​(q,q∣μi​) and finance the whole capacity (6)–(7).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Let

β‾=min⁡{β∈[0,1]:zr(β)(F−1(zr(β))−F−1(zs))+(zr+β(1−zr))∫ε‾F−1(zs)F−∫ε‾F−1(zr(β))F≥0}.\underline\beta = \min\Big\{\beta \in [0,1] : z_r(\beta)\big(F^{-1}(z_r(\beta)) - F^{-1}(z_s)\big) + \big(z_r + \beta(1 - z_r)\big)\int_{\underline\varepsilon}^{F^{-1}(z_s)} F - \int_{\underline\varepsilon}^{F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))} F \ge 0\Big\}.β​=min{β∈[0,1]:zr​(β)(F−1(zr​(β))−F−1(zs​))+(zr​+β(1−zr​))∫ε​F−1(zs​)​F−∫ε​F−1(zr​(β))​F≥0}.

Then the minimum exists, β‾<1\underline\beta < 1β​<1, and for both market states

(qiCI,KiCI)={(0, μi+F−1(zs))β<β‾,(μi+F−1(zr(β)), μi+F−1(zr(β)))β≥β‾.\big(q_i^{CI}, K_i^{CI}\big) = \begin{cases} \big(0,\ \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)\big) & \beta < \underline\beta,\\ \big(\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta)),\ \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))\big) & \beta \ge \underline\beta. \end{cases}(qiCI​,KiCI​)={(0, μi​+F−1(zs​))(μi​+F−1(zr​(β)), μi​+F−1(zr​(β)))​β<β​,β≥β​.​

The formal goal adds that the order chosen by (7) maximizes qadv↦vr(qadv,KiCI(qadv)∣μi)q^{adv} \mapsto v_r(q^{adv}, K_i^{CI}(q^{adv}) \mid \mu_i)qadv↦vr​(qadv,KiCI​(qadv)∣μi​) over qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the closed form (2) of πs\pi_sπs​; the optimality of (5); the closed form (4) of vrv_rvr​; the §4 observation that ordering a positive quantity up to μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​) is weakly dominated by ordering nothing; the closed form, concavity and unique maximizer q∗=μi+F−1(zr(β))q^* = \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))q∗=μi​+F−1(zr​(β)) of q↦vr(q,q∣μi)q \mapsto v_r(q, q \mid \mu_i)q↦vr​(q,q∣μi​) (Appendix E, p. 43); the identity between the payoff gain G(β)=1r(vr(q∗,q∗∣μi)−vr(0,μi+F−1(zs)∣μi))G(\beta) = \tfrac1r\big(v_r(q^*, q^* \mid \mu_i) - v_r(0, \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s) \mid \mu_i)\big)G(β)=r1​(vr​(q∗,q∗∣μi​)−vr​(0,μi​+F−1(zs​)∣μi​)) and the expression in (9) (pp. 43–44); and Lemma E1, the existence of a unique threshold β‾∈[0,1)\underline\beta \in [0,1)β​∈[0,1) with G(β)≥0  ⟺  β≥β‾G(\beta) \ge 0 \iff \beta \ge \underline\betaG(β)≥0⟺β≥β​ (p. 44).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that a large enough passive stake always makes the retailer finance the entire capacity, and that full ownership is never needed: β‾<1\underline\beta < 1β​<1 for every choice of prices, costs and demand law. The mechanism is visible in zr(β)z_r(\beta)zr​(β): each unit the retailer buys costs her effectively w−β(w−c)w - \beta(w - c)w−β(w−c), so her preferred capacity grows with β\betaβ, and from β‾\underline\betaβ​ on it is worth paying for. The theorem is also the benchmark for the rest of the paper: the cheap-talk, signaling and pooling equilibria of §§5–7 are compared with (qiCI,KiCI)(q_i^{CI}, K_i^{CI})(qiCI​,KiCI​), and the thresholds β‾\underline\betaβ​ and β‾‾\underline{\underline\beta}β​​ jointly delimit the paper's regimes.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix E, pp. 42–44). It has not been formalized. A formal proof adds two things beyond confirmation. First, it settles a step the paper asserts without argument: that G(β)<0G(\beta) < 0G(β)<0 whenever zr(β)≤zsz_r(\beta) \le z_szr​(β)≤zs​, which is what forces q∗>μi+F−1(zs)q^* > \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)q∗>μi​+F−1(zs​) in the second case of (8). Second, it produces reusable lemmas about newsvendor-type expectations under a general demand law with a density: the layer-cake identities behind (2)–(4) and the unique maximization of qz−∫qFq z - \int^{q} Fqz−∫qF at a quantile.

Difficulty

The identities (2)–(4) are integration-by-parts computations, but they must be done for an arbitrary law with a density, with oriented interval integrals and without assuming bounded support. The concavity and the maximizer at F−1(zr(β))F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))F−1(zr​(β)) require that the quantile be a genuine inverse of FFF on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

The central difficulty is Lemma E1. The natural argument computes G′(β)G'(\beta)G′(β) and observes it is positive when zr(β)>zsz_r(\beta) > z_szr​(β)>zs​. That does not settle the sign of GGG on the complementary region, where the paper argues informally that the supplier "builds a higher capacity for free". The comparison in GGG, however, uses capacity q∗q^*q∗ even when q∗<μi+F−1(zs)q^* < \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)q∗<μi​+F−1(zs​), so that informal argument compares the wrong objects; a separate estimate is needed there. Differentiability of β↦F−1(zr(β))\beta \mapsto F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))β↦F−1(zr​(β)) is also not given: the density need not be continuous or positive at the quantile, so the monotonicity of GGG cannot simply be read off a derivative.

Formalization scope

The primitives c,w,r,μL,μHc, w, r, \mu_L, \mu_Hc,w,r,μL​,μH​, the law PPP of ε\varepsilonε and ε‾\underline\varepsilonε​ form a structure; FFF is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf P, and F−1(z)=inf⁡{x:F(x)≥z}F^{-1}(z) = \inf\{x : F(x) \ge z\}F−1(z)=inf{x:F(x)≥z}, applied only at levels in (0,1)(0, 1)(0,1). The payoffs πs,πr,vr\pi_s, \pi_r, v_rπs​,πr​,vr​ are defined as Bochner integrals of the realized profits; the closed forms are milestones, not definitions. The expression of (9) is defined as printed, because Theorem 1 defines β‾\underline\betaβ​ by it, and a milestone ties it to the payoff gain GGG, which is defined with its factor 1/r1/r1/r. The market state is quantified as μ∈{μL,μH}\mu \in \{\mu_L, \mu_H\}μ∈{μL​,μH​} and the share as β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0, 1]β∈[0,1].

The standing assumptions are those of §3: PPP is a probability measure, ε\varepsilonε has mean zero and a density, ε‾<0\underline\varepsilon < 0ε​<0 with F(ε‾)=0F(\underline\varepsilon) = 0F(ε​)=0, 0<μL<μH0 < \mu_L < \mu_H0<μL​<μH​, μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L + \underline\varepsilon \ge 0μL​+ε​≥0, and c<w<rc < w < rc<w<r. Three implicit assumptions are added and disclosed: c>0c > 0c>0 (otherwise zs=1z_s = 1zs​=1 and F−1(zs)F^{-1}(z_s)F−1(zs​) is not defined), integrability of ε\varepsilonε (presupposed by "zero mean"), and strict increase of FFF on the support {x≥ε‾:F(x)<1}\{x \ge \underline\varepsilon : F(x) < 1\}{x≥ε​:F(x)<1} (the paper uses F−1F^{-1}F−1 as an inverse). The advance order ranges over qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0, and K≥qadvK \ge q^{adv}K≥qadv is a hypothesis of (2) and (4).

Two trivializations are ruled out. Defining the profits by their closed forms would make the payoff milestones true by definition, so they are expectations. Replacing the rule (7) by "an arg max of q↦vr(q,KiCI(q)∣μi)q \mapsto v_r(q, K_i^{CI}(q) \mid \mu_i)q↦vr​(q,KiCI​(q)∣μi​)" would be ill-posed, because that maximizer is not unique (for β<1\beta < 1β<1 every order up to μi+ε‾\mu_i + \underline\varepsilonμi​+ε​ ties with 000); qCIq^{CI}qCI is the two-option rule as printed, and its optimality is a separate conclusion.

Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are general lemmas on expectations of min⁡/max⁡\min/\maxmin/max of a shifted random variable, on quantiles of continuous strictly increasing CDFs, and on the continuity of β↦F−1(zr(β))\beta \mapsto F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))β↦F−1(zr​(β)). The source is the authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06; its proofs are in Appendix E.

Selected references

  • T. Avinadav and N. Shamir, Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain, Management Science, 2023 (read as the authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06; Theorem 1 on p. 11, proof on pp. 42–44). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4673
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 11, 2003 (the newsvendor and wholesale-price contract background). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamical SystemsEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces II: Without Subsidies a Utilization Shock u₀ Can Be Absorbed Exactly When u₀ ≥ M/J(C(M))Research Paper

Motivation

In 2018 New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission adopted a minimum earnings rule for ride-hailing drivers: each platform must pay drivers, per hour spent with a passenger, at least a target hourly earnings level divided by the platform's measured driver utilization in the previous period. The rule ties next period's wage floor to this period's idle time, so a platform that over-recruits drivers must raise wages. Asadpour, Lobel and van Ryzin (SSRN 3502607, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022) model this rule as a dynamical system and ask when the regulated marketplace can stay stable, meaning wages stay bounded while the platform does not lose money.

Their main result (Theorem 1, a separate mission of this series) characterizes stability in a deterministic market. Real markets are hit by demand shocks: a sudden drop in ride requests lowers utilization in one period, and the rule then forces a high wage in the next. This mission formalizes the paper's answer (Theorem 2, §4.1) to whether a platform that may not subsidize rides can absorb such a one-time shock.

Setting

Time is discrete. In each period ttt the platform chooses a price pt≥0p_t \ge 0pt​≥0 per ride hour and a wage wt≥0w_t \ge 0wt​≥0 per ride hour. The demand D(p)D(p)D(p) is the number of ride hours requested at price ppp; the supply S(z)S(z)S(z) is the number of driver hours offered when drivers earn zzz per hour. Rides served are Q(p,z)=min⁡{D(p),S(z)}Q(p,z) = \min\{D(p), S(z)\}Q(p,z)=min{D(p),S(z)}, the utilization is u(p,z)=Q(p,z)/S(z)u(p,z) = Q(p,z)/S(z)u(p,z)=Q(p,z)/S(z), and drivers' hourly earnings ztz_tzt​ solve the equilibrium condition

zt=wt u(pt,zt).z_t = w_t \, u(p_t, z_t).zt​=wt​u(pt​,zt​).

A price, wage and earnings sequence satisfying this in every period is an equilibrium-augmented policy. The platform's profit is π(p,w,z)=(p−w) Q(p,z)\pi(p,w,z) = (p-w)\,Q(p,z)π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z). With target M>0M > 0M>0, the minimum earnings rule requires

wt+1≥Mu(pt,zt)in every period.w_{t+1} \ge \frac{M}{u(p_t, z_t)} \quad \text{in every period.}wt+1​≥u(pt​,zt​)M​in every period.

The revenue and cost functions are R(p)=p D(p)R(p) = p\,D(p)R(p)=pD(p) and C(z)=z S(z)C(z) = z\,S(z)C(z)=zS(z). The paper assumes DDD positive, strictly decreasing and continuous; SSS strictly increasing, continuous, and positive and differentiable away from 000; RRR unimodal with maximum at p∗p^*p∗; and demand and supply crossing at w∗w^*w∗, D(w∗)=S(w∗)D(w^*) = S(w^*)D(w∗)=S(w∗). HHH is the inverse of CCC, and JJJ is the inverse of RRR on its decreasing branch: J(r)=pJ(r) = pJ(r)=p iff p≥p∗p \ge p^*p≥p∗ and R(p)=rR(p) = rR(p)=r.

A shock lowers utilization to u0u_0u0​ in one period. A marketplace absorbs a u0u_0u0​ utilization shock (Definition 3) if some feasible equilibrium-augmented policy obeying the rule, with first post-shock wage w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​, has bounded wages and non-negative profit in every period.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

the marketplace absorbs a u0 utilization shock  ⟺  u0≥MJ(C(M)).\text{the marketplace absorbs a } u_0 \text{ utilization shock} \iff u_0 \ge \frac{M}{J(C(M))}.the marketplace absorbs a u0​ utilization shock⟺u0​≥J(C(M))M​.

The threshold is explicit in the model primitives; no constant is chosen by the formalization.

Milestones (the steps of the published proof, Online Appendix p. 5)

  1. If u0<M/J(C(M))u_0 < M/J(C(M))u0​<M/J(C(M)) and w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​, then M/H(R(w1))≥ϕ(M,u0)>1M/H(R(w_1)) \ge \phi(M,u_0) > 1M/H(R(w1​))≥ϕ(M,u0​)>1, where ϕ(M,u0)=M/H(R(M/u0))\phi(M,u_0) = M/H(R(M/u_0))ϕ(M,u0​)=M/H(R(M/u0​)).
  2. Along a policy with p=wp = wp=w after such a shock, wt+1≥ϕ(M,u0) wtw_{t+1} \ge \phi(M,u_0)\,w_twt+1​≥ϕ(M,u0​)wt​, hence wt≥ϕ(M,u0)t−1w1w_t \ge \phi(M,u_0)^{t-1} w_1wt​≥ϕ(M,u0​)t−1w1​.
  3. If u0≥M/J(C(M))u_0 \ge M/J(C(M))u0​≥M/J(C(M)), then at p=w=J(C(M))p = w = J(C(M))p=w=J(C(M)) and z=Mz = Mz=M: z/w=D(p)/S(z)=u(p,z)z/w = D(p)/S(z) = u(p,z)z/w=D(p)/S(z)=u(p,z), so z=Mz = Mz=M is an equilibrium.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 quantifies the fragility of a regulated marketplace whose platform cannot cross-subsidize: there is a sharp utilization level below which a single shock sends wages into unbounded growth, and above which the platform recovers immediately with a zero-profit stationary policy. Its threshold depends on the market only through the decreasing branch of revenue and the cost of paying MMM, which makes it a concrete design criterion for the target MMM: a regulator choosing MMM also chooses how deep a utilization drop the market can survive. The remark after the theorem (p. 14) relates it to the stability threshold of Theorem 1.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A formal proof must close points the published argument leaves implicit: the reduction to p=wp = wp=w policies (the paper's Lemma 3, posed in mission I) must hold in the all-periods form used here; the wage recursion of Lemma 4 needs wages above w∗w^*w∗, which the proof does not check; and the sufficiency policy needs J(C(M))≥MJ(C(M)) \ge MJ(C(M))≥M, which holds only because utilizations are at most one. The mission also gives the platform a second, independent use of the shared marketplace model.

Difficulty

The sufficiency direction is a direct check of one stationary policy. The necessity direction is where the work lies. The natural attempt, to argue that a high first wage simply cannot be paid without loss, fails: profit only requires pt≥wtp_t \ge w_tpt​≥wt​, and a platform may raise its price along with the wage. The obstruction is dynamic. Raising the price above J(C(M))J(C(M))J(C(M)) lowers revenue below the cost of supplying earnings MMM, so equilibrium earnings fall below MMM, utilization falls, and the rule raises the next wage by a factor bounded away from one. Turning this into a proof requires controlling arbitrary policies with pt≥wtp_t \ge w_tpt​≥wt​, not just the convenient p=wp = wp=w, and carrying an induction hypothesis (wages stay above M/u0M/u_0M/u0​) that the paper does not state.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in namespace MinEarnings.Shock. Demand and supply are functions D S : ℝ → ℝ; all regularity is required on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and "differentiable" is read as differentiable on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), which is all the argument uses. "RRR unimodal with maximum at p∗p^*p∗" is strict increase on [0,p∗][0,p^*][0,p∗] and strict decrease on [p∗,∞)[p^*,\infty)[p∗,∞). The points p∗p^*p∗, w∗w^*w∗ and the inverse cost HHH are parameters carrying their defining properties. Time is 0-based: Lean's period 000 is the paper's period 111, so the shock constraint w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​ is a bound on Lean's first wage and the rule constrains every later wage. Bounded wages means ∃B ∀t, wt≤B\exists B\ \forall t,\ w_t \le B∃B ∀t, wt​≤B, and profit is non-negative in every period.

Three conventions are pinned and disclosed in every statement:

  • J(C(M))J(C(M))J(C(M)) is not defined as a function. It is passed as a price qqq with q≥p∗q \ge p^*q≥p∗ and R(q)=C(M)R(q) = C(M)R(q)=C(M), which determines it uniquely. The paper's JJJ is defined on (0,R(p∗)](0, R(p^*)](0,R(p∗)], which presumes R(p)→0R(p) \to 0R(p)→0, an assumption the paper does not make.
  • The shock utilization satisfies 0<u0≤10 < u_0 \le 10<u0​≤1. Without u0≤1u_0 \le 1u0​≤1, which Definition 3 leaves implicit, the sufficiency direction fails when p∗≤w∗<Mp^* \le w^* < Mp∗≤w∗<M.
  • Equilibrium earnings are positive, zt>0z_t > 0zt​>0. Lean defines 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0, so a zero-earnings "equilibrium" with S(0)=0S(0) = 0S(0)=0 would have utilization 000 and turn the rule into M/0=0≤wt+1M/0 = 0 \le w_{t+1}M/0=0≤wt+1​; the positivity requirement rules out this trivializing reading, and the requirement that wages be bounded uniformly rules out a vacuous reading of stability.

The development needs only Mathlib's real analysis: monotonicity on intervals, inverse functions on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and geometric growth of sequences. The setting file is shared, up to namespace, with the other two missions of the series. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of the all-periods reduction to p=wp = wp=w policies, and a general lemma that a sequence with wt+1≥ϕwtw_{t+1} \ge \phi w_twt+1​≥ϕwt​, ϕ>1\phi > 1ϕ>1, w0>0w_0 > 0w0​>0 is unbounded.

Selected references

  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, SSRN 3502607 (version of August 24, 2022); Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3502607 · https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1150
6 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamical SystemsEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces III: A Minimum Earnings Marketplace Is Dynamically Stable Exactly When It Is Statically StableResearch Paper

Utilization-based minimum earnings rules

In 2018 New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission (TLC) imposed a minimum pay formula on the largest ride-hailing platforms, following a proposal by Parrott and Reich (2018): the pay per minute and per mile driven is divided by the platform's utilization rate, the fraction of drivers' working time spent carrying passengers. Seattle adopted a similar rule in 2020. The rule targets drivers' hourly earnings while leaving them free to choose when and how much to work. Because utilization is only observed after the fact, the regulation computes the floor for the next measurement period (six months in New York) from the utilization of the current one.

Asadpour, Lobel and van Ryzin (2022) model this rule as a dynamic system and ask when a platform can comply with it while keeping wages bounded and profits non-negative. This mission formalizes their Theorem 3: the lag in the rule does not matter for stability, because the dynamic system is stable exactly when a single static system of equations has a solution. Two companion missions of the series formalize Theorem 1 (the threshold z∗z^*z∗ on stable earnings targets) and Theorem 2 (absorption of a utilization shock).

Setting

Time is discrete. In period ttt the platform charges riders a price pt≥0p_t \ge 0pt​≥0 per hour of driving and pays drivers a wage wt≥0w_t \ge 0wt​≥0 per hour of driving riders. A demand function DDD gives the ride hours demanded at price ppp, and a supply function SSS gives the driver hours offered at expected hourly earnings zzz. The regularity assumptions are that DDD is positive, strictly decreasing and continuous, and SSS is strictly increasing, continuous, and positive and differentiable away from zero. The ride hours produced, the utilization and the platform's profit are

Q(p,z)=min⁡{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=Q(p,z)S(z),π(p,w,z)=(p−w) Q(p,z).Q(p,z)=\min\{D(p),S(z)\},\qquad u(p,z)=\frac{Q(p,z)}{S(z)},\qquad \pi(p,w,z)=(p-w)\,Q(p,z).Q(p,z)=min{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=S(z)Q(p,z)​,π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z).

Drivers earn wtw_twt​ only while busy, so earnings satisfy the equilibrium condition zt=wt u(pt,zt)z_t = w_t\,u(p_t,z_t)zt​=wt​u(pt​,zt​). The minimum earnings rule with target M>0M>0M>0 is

wt+1 ≥ Mu(pt,zt)for every period t.w_{t+1}\ \ge\ \frac{M}{u(p_t,z_t)}\qquad\text{for every period } t.wt+1​ ≥ u(pt​,zt​)M​for every period t.

The MMM-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable if some policy (pt,wt,zt)(p_t,w_t,z_t)(pt​,wt​,zt​) that is feasible, satisfies the equilibrium condition and obeys the rule has a bounded wage sequence and π(pt,wt,zt)≥0\pi(p_t,w_t,z_t)\ge 0π(pt​,wt​,zt​)≥0 in all but finitely many periods. It is statically stable if there are p,w,z≥0p,w,z\ge 0p,w,z≥0 and u∈(0,1]u\in(0,1]u∈(0,1] with

u=Q(p,z)S(z),z=w u,w≥Mu,p≥w.(8)u=\frac{Q(p,z)}{S(z)},\qquad z=w\,u,\qquad w\ge\frac{M}{u},\qquad p\ge w. \tag{8}u=S(z)Q(p,z)​,z=wu,w≥uM​,p≥w.(8)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

the M-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable  ⟺  it is statically stable.\text{the } M\text{-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable}\iff\text{it is statically stable}.the M-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable⟺it is statically stable.

The statement carries only the regularity assumptions on DDD and SSS and M>0M>0M>0.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof in the Online Appendix.

  1. A statically stable marketplace is stable.
  2. Along a policy with pt=wtp_t = w_tpt​=wt​ that satisfies the equilibrium condition and the rule, if ut+1≥utu_{t+1}\ge u_tut+1​≥ut​ for some ttt, the marketplace is statically stable.
  3. Along the same kind of policy, if wt≥M/utw_t\ge M/u_twt​≥M/ut​ for some ttt, the marketplace is statically stable.
  4. If neither case occurs and wages are bounded, then wt→ww_t\to wwt​→w and ut→uu_t\to uut​→u, and the limits satisfy 0<u≤10<u\le 10<u≤1, w≥M/uw\ge M/uw≥M/u and u=Q(w,wu)/S(wu)u = Q(w,wu)/S(wu)u=Q(w,wu)/S(wu).

Significance

Theorem 3 reduces a question about infinite sequences to a question about one system of four relations in four unknowns. The paper uses it to give a second proof of its threshold theorem, and it shows that the lag in the regulation cannot be blamed for instability: every earnings target that a real-time rule could sustain can also be sustained under the lagged rule, and conversely. This gives regulators and platforms a criterion that can be checked by solving equations rather than by simulating policies.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version of it or of the paper's other results exists. Formalizing it checks the passage to the limit in the dynamic-to-static direction, where the paper leaves one step implicit (the positivity of the limiting utilization), and it provides a Lean model of the regulated marketplace that the other two missions of the series share.

Difficulty

The static-to-dynamic direction is immediate. In the other direction, a stable policy is a sequence, and a solution of (8) is a single point. Fixing one period of a stable policy does not give such a point: the rule compares wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ with utu_tut​, while (8) compares www with the utilization of the same point. A solution has to be extracted either from a period where the comparison happens to go the right way or from a limit. The limit is delicate because the utilization Q(p,z)/S(z)Q(p,z)/S(z)Q(p,z)/S(z) is a ratio, and a limit with u=0u = 0u=0 would not solve (8). The positivity of the limiting utilization has to come from the rule and the bound on wages together. The reduction to policies with pt=wtp_t = w_tpt​=wt​ (Lemma 3 of the paper) also has to be carried out on the policy before the case analysis can start; that lemma is posed as a milestone of the first mission of this series and is not repeated here.

Formalization scope

Prices, wages and earnings are real numbers, and D,S:R→RD, S : \mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}D,S:R→R are constrained on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). A policy is a triple of sequences indexed by N\mathbb{N}N starting at 000, so Lean's period ttt is the paper's period t+1t+1t+1, and the rule constrains every wage except the first. "Bounded" is an upper bound on the wages, which are non-negative; "all but finitely many periods" is an eventually-along-atTop statement. "Differentiable" is read as differentiability on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) together with continuity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

The equilibrium condition requires zt>0z_t>0zt​>0. Without it the encoding is trivial: if S(0)=0S(0)=0S(0)=0, which the assumptions allow, Lean evaluates u(p,0)=0/0u(p,0)=0/0u(p,0)=0/0 as 000, the rule becomes 0≤wt+10\le w_{t+1}0≤wt+1​, and every target MMM would count as stable. For the same reason Definition 4's u∈(0,1]u\in(0,1]u∈(0,1] is kept with its strict lower bound. The paper's standing assumptions that the revenue pD(p)pD(p)pD(p) is unimodal and that DDD and SSS cross are not used by Theorem 3 or its proof and are not assumed, so the formal statements are slightly more general than the paper's.

A complete development needs basic real analysis from Mathlib (monotone convergence, continuity of DDD, SSS and min⁡\minmin, limits of quotients) and the equilibrium construction behind Lemma 3, which uses the inverse of the cost function C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z). That construction is reusable across the series. Proofs of the milestones, of the p=wp=wp=w reduction, and of the goal are all welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, SSRN 3502607 (version of August 24, 2022); Theorem 3 on p. 15, proof in Online Appendix pp. 5–6. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3502607
  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1150
  • J. A. Parrott, M. Reich, An Earnings Standard for New York City's App-based Drivers: Economic Analysis and Policy Assessment, report for the New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, 2018 (cited in the paper as Parrott and Reich [2018]).
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement II: The Bellman Solution in Closed Form Between Consecutive Engagement ThresholdsResearch Paper

Motivation

Non-profit organizations such as food banks run on volunteer labour. Volunteers sign up for shifts, wait on a sign-up list, work, rest, and may or may not return; the organization can spend money on engagement activities (reminders, recognition events, recruitment drives) that raise the rate at which volunteers come back or arrive. Spending too little leaves shifts unstaffed; spending too much wastes a scarce budget. Ata, Tongarlak, Lee and Field (arXiv:2312.02920, Operations Research, 2024) model this as a multiclass queueing network, pass to a heavy-traffic limit, and obtain a one-dimensional drift-rate control problem: a reflected diffusion for the scaled workload whose drift is chosen, at a cost, from an interval of feasible drifts. The optimal policy they derive is a nested threshold policy: as the workload falls below successive thresholds τ1>τ2>⋯>τL\tau_1>\tau_2>\dots>\tau_Lτ1​>τ2​>⋯>τL​, one more engagement activity is switched on.

To compute that policy one needs the thresholds, and the paper obtains them from a closed-form description of the solution of the Bellman equation between consecutive thresholds. That closed form, Proposition 3 of the paper, is the goal of this mission. A companion mission formalizes Theorem 1, the existence of a solution of the same Bellman equation.

Setting

There are L≥1L\ge1L≥1 engagement activities. The data are a lowest drift θ0<0\theta_0<0θ0​<0, drift increments η1,…,ηL>0\eta_1,\dots,\eta_L>0η1​,…,ηL​>0, per-unit-drift costs 0<c1<c2<⋯<cL<p0<c_1<c_2<\dots<c_L<p0<c1​<c2​<⋯<cL​<p, an idleness cost rate ppp, a mean-reversion rate κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 and a volatility σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. The breakpoints are

θl=θ0+∑i=1lηi,l=0,…,L,\theta_l=\theta_0+\sum_{i=1}^{l}\eta_i,\qquad l=0,\dots,L,θl​=θ0​+i=1∑l​ηi​,l=0,…,L,

and the feasible drifts form the interval A=[θ0,θL]A=[\theta_0,\theta_L]A=[θ0​,θL​]. The engagement cost c:A→R+c:A\to\mathbb R_+c:A→R+​ is the convex, increasing, piecewise linear function with c(θ0)=0c(\theta_0)=0c(θ0​)=0 and slope clc_lcl​ on (θl−1,θl](\theta_{l-1},\theta_l](θl−1​,θl​]:

c(x)=∑i=1l−1ciηi+cl(x−θl−1),θl−1<x≤θl.c(x)=\sum_{i=1}^{l-1}c_i\eta_i+c_l(x-\theta_{l-1}),\qquad \theta_{l-1}<x\le\theta_l .c(x)=i=1∑l−1​ci​ηi​+cl​(x−θl−1​),θl−1​<x≤θl​.

Its convex conjugate is

ϕ(y)=sup⁡x∈A{yx−c(x)},y∈R.\phi(y)=\sup_{x\in A}\{yx-c(x)\},\qquad y\in\mathbb R .ϕ(y)=x∈Asup​{yx−c(x)},y∈R.

The Bellman equation of the drift-rate control problem asks for a constant β>0\beta>0β>0 and a continuously differentiable function vvv on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with

β=12σ2v′(x)+xκ (p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,\beta=\tfrac12\sigma^2v'(x)+x\kappa\,\big(p-v(x)\big)-\phi\big(p-v(x)\big),\qquad x\ge0,β=21​σ2v′(x)+xκ(p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,

such that v(0)=0v(0)=0v(0)=0, vvv is strictly increasing, and v(x)→pv(x)\to pv(x)→p as x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞. Here β\betaβ is the optimal long-run average cost and v=g′v=g'v=g′ is the derivative of the transformed relative value function ggg of the paper's §4 (p. 20).

Put c^l=cl\hat c_l=c_lc^l​=cl​ for l=1,…,Ll=1,\dots,Ll=1,…,L and c^L+1=p\hat c_{L+1}=pc^L+1​=p. Since vvv is strictly increasing from 000 towards ppp, each level p−c^l∈(0,p)p-\hat c_l\in(0,p)p−c^l​∈(0,p) is attained exactly once; the thresholds are

τl=v−1(p−c^l),l=1,…,L,τL+1=0,τ0=∞.\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l),\quad l=1,\dots,L,\qquad \tau_{L+1}=0,\qquad \tau_0=\infty .τl​=v−1(p−c^l​),l=1,…,L,τL+1​=0,τ0​=∞.

With Φ\PhiΦ the standard normal cumulative distribution function, the paper defines for l=1,…,L+1l=1,\dots,L+1l=1,…,L+1

ul(x)=p−c^lexp⁡{−2θl−1(x−τl)+κ(x2−τl2)σ2}+2(β−c(θl−1))πσκexp⁡{(κx−θl−1)2κσ2}[Φ(κx−θl−1σκ/2)−Φ(κτl−θl−1σκ/2)].u_l(x)=p-\hat c_l\exp\Big\{\tfrac{-2\theta_{l-1}(x-\tau_l)+\kappa(x^2-\tau_l^2)}{\sigma^2}\Big\}+\tfrac{2(\beta-c(\theta_{l-1}))\sqrt\pi}{\sigma\sqrt\kappa}\exp\Big\{\tfrac{(\kappa x-\theta_{l-1})^2}{\kappa\sigma^2}\Big\}\Big[\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\kappa x-\theta_{l-1}}{\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2}}\Big)-\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\kappa\tau_l-\theta_{l-1}}{\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2}}\Big)\Big].ul​(x)=p−c^l​exp{σ2−2θl−1​(x−τl​)+κ(x2−τl2​)​}+σκ​2(β−c(θl−1​))π​​exp{κσ2(κx−θl−1​)2​}[Φ(σκ/2​κx−θl−1​​)−Φ(σκ/2​κτl​−θl−1​​)].

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 25)

For every solution (β,v)(\beta,v)(β,v) of the Bellman equation and every l=1,…,L+1l=1,\dots,L+1l=1,…,L+1,

v(x)=ul(x)for all x∈[τl,τl−1).v(x)=u_l(x)\qquad\text{for all }x\in[\tau_l,\tau_{l-1}).v(x)=ul​(x)for all x∈[τl​,τl−1​).

The statement fixes nothing beyond the model: it holds for any solution, with the thresholds defined from that solution.

Milestones

  1. (E9), Online Supplement p. 13: the conjugate is piecewise linear,
ϕ(y)=θ0y (y≤c1),ϕ(y)=θm−1y−c(θm−1) (cm−1<y≤cm),ϕ(y)=θLy−c(θL) (y>cL).\phi(y)=\theta_0y\ (y\le c_1),\qquad \phi(y)=\theta_{m-1}y-c(\theta_{m-1})\ (c_{m-1}<y\le c_m),\qquad \phi(y)=\theta_Ly-c(\theta_L)\ (y>c_L).ϕ(y)=θ0​y (y≤c1​),ϕ(y)=θm−1​y−c(θm−1​) (cm−1​<y≤cm​),ϕ(y)=θL​y−c(θL​) (y>cL​).
  1. Lemma 2(i), (D1), Online Supplement p. 9: for κ,σ>0\kappa,\sigma>0κ,σ>0,
∫τxe(2θz−κz2)/σ2 dz=σπκeθ2/(κσ2)[Φ(x−θ/κσ/2κ)−Φ(τ−θ/κσ/2κ)].\int_\tau^x e^{(2\theta z-\kappa z^2)/\sigma^2}\,dz=\frac{\sigma\sqrt\pi}{\sqrt\kappa}e^{\theta^2/(\kappa\sigma^2)}\Big[\Phi\Big(\tfrac{x-\theta/\kappa}{\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa}}\Big)-\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\tau-\theta/\kappa}{\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa}}\Big)\Big].∫τx​e(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz=κ​σπ​​eθ2/(κσ2)[Φ(σ/2κ​x−θ/κ​)−Φ(σ/2κ​τ−θ/κ​)].
  1. Lemma 2(ii), (D2), Online Supplement p. 9: the companion formula for ∫τxz e(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz\int_\tau^x z\,e^{(2\theta z-\kappa z^2)/\sigma^2}dz∫τx​ze(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz.

Significance

The result. Proposition 3 turns the nested threshold policy into something computable. Evaluating ulu_lul​ at the right end of its interval and inverting gives τl−1\tau_{l-1}τl−1​ from τl\tau_lτl​, so the thresholds τL,τL−1,…,τ1\tau_L,\tau_{L-1},\dots,\tau_1τL​,τL−1​,…,τ1​ follow by a one-dimensional recursion once β\betaβ is known. The paper's simulation study of a food bank (§5) uses these thresholds to set engagement policy. The result also shows that the value-function derivative, although defined through a nonlinear equation involving a supremum, is an explicit combination of Gaussian-type functions on each threshold interval.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (Online Supplement §D); no machine-checked version of it, of the conjugate formula (E9), or of the truncated Gaussian integrals (D1)–(D2) is known to exist. A formal proof checks the transcription of a long explicit formula with many constants, which is exactly where printed closed forms tend to go wrong, and produces reusable pieces: the conjugate of a convex piecewise linear function and two interval-integral identities for the normal cdf.

Difficulty

The Bellman equation is nonlinear in vvv through ϕ(p−v)\phi(p-v)ϕ(p−v). The obvious approach, solving it directly, fails because ϕ\phiϕ has no single formula. What makes it tractable is that on [τl,τl−1)[\tau_l,\tau_{l-1})[τl​,τl−1​) the argument p−v(x)p-v(x)p−v(x) stays in one linearity interval of ϕ\phiϕ; this is a property of the solution, derived from its monotonicity and the definition of the thresholds, not a hypothesis. A complete proof must therefore combine the piecewise description of a supremum, a uniqueness argument for a linear first-order equation on a half-open interval (with the one-sided derivative at the left end and, for l=1l=1l=1, an unbounded interval), and the evaluation of Gaussian integrals over finite intervals in terms of the normal cdf, matching every constant of the printed formula. The two expressions for the Φ\PhiΦ arguments, (κx−θ)/(σκ/2)(\kappa x-\theta)/(\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2})(κx−θ)/(σκ/2​) in ulu_lul​ and (x−θ/κ)/(σ/2κ)(x-\theta/\kappa)/(\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa})(x−θ/κ)/(σ/2κ​) in (D1)–(D2), are equal, but the identification must be made.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace VolunteerEngage.Thresholds, Lean 4 with Mathlib.

  • The parameters form a structure Model; η\etaη and ccc are N\mathbb NN-indexed sequences of which the indices 1,…,L1,\dots,L1,…,L are used. The standing assumptions (L≥1L\ge1L≥1, θ0<0\theta_0<0θ0​<0, ηl>0\eta_l>0ηl​>0, 0<c1<⋯<cL<p0<c_1<\dots<c_L<p0<c1​<⋯<cL​<p, p>0p>0p>0, κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0) form the predicate Standing, a hypothesis of every model-level theorem. The paper states them in the model's derivation ((15), (24), (42), (43), (50), p. 18) rather than for the abstract control problem.
  • The cost (52) is written as one sum, equal to (52) on AAA; values off AAA are never used. ϕ\phiϕ is the supremum (66) over AAA, never its closed form, so (E9) is a genuine statement.
  • A solution of the Bellman equation includes β>0\beta>0β>0 and a pair (v,v′)(v,v')(v,v′) with v′v'v′ continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and the one-sided derivative of vvv within [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) at every point. "Increasing" is strict.
  • The thresholds enter the goal as a sequence τ\tauτ with τL+1=0\tau_{L+1}=0τL+1​=0 and, for l≤Ll\le Ll≤L, τl≥0\tau_l\ge0τl​≥0 and v(τl)=p−c^lv(\tau_l)=p-\hat c_lv(τl​)=p−c^l​; strict monotonicity makes this the definition τl=v−1(p−c^l)\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l)τl​=v−1(p−c^l​), so the proposition's clause "τl=v−1(p−c^l)\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l)τl​=v−1(p−c^l​)", which restates that definition, is not posed separately. τ0=∞\tau_0=\inftyτ0​=∞ is encoded by dropping the upper bound for l=1l=1l=1.
  • The goal is stated for every solution (β,v)(\beta,v)(β,v); β>0\beta>0β>0 is part of the solution predicate, as on p. 21. It is not vacuous: the companion mission's goal (Theorem 1) asserts that a solution exists. A formalization that assumed the closed form of ϕ\phiϕ, that p−vp-vp−v stays in one linearity interval, or that took ulu_lul​ as the definition of vvv would make the goal trivial and is ruled out.
  • Φ\PhiΦ is the published definition Cohen2019.Robust.Phi, which is Mathlib's cdf (gaussianReal 0 1). Integrals in (D1)–(D2) are oriented interval integrals of continuous functions.

The source is the arXiv preprint v2 including its Online Supplement. The queueing network (§2) and the Brownian control problem (§3) motivate the Bellman equation but are not part of any formal statement; the optimality of the threshold policy (Theorem 2) is not formalized here. Proofs of any milestone, of the goal, and general lemmas on conjugates of piecewise linear functions or on Gaussian integrals over intervals are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Ata, M. H. Tongarlak, D. Lee, J. Field, A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement, arXiv:2312.02920v2, 2023; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.02920
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryLinear Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret II: In (SPP)-Acyclic Networks the Static Planning Solution Is Given by Surplus Vectors in {−1, 0, 1}ⁿResearch Paper

Motivation

Centralized markets such as kidney exchanges, ride-sharing platforms and online labor markets match agents who arrive over time. Kerimov, Ashlagi and Gurvich (SSRN 3824407; Management Science, 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215) study such a market with nnn agent types and ddd feasible multi-way matches. Their main result is that, when a fluid linear program called the static-planning problem (SPP) has a unique non-degenerate solution, a periodic resolving policy keeps the regret against the hindsight optimum bounded by a constant of order 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ at all times, where the general position gap ϵ\epsilonϵ is the smallest positive basic variable of (SPP).

The constant 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ is only informative if one can say what ϵ\epsilonϵ is. Section 5 of the paper does this for a class of networks it calls (SPP)-acyclic: there the optimal solution of (SPP) is an explicit signed sum of arrival rates, so ϵ\epsilonϵ is an imbalance between sums of arrival probabilities. This mission formalizes that structural result and the lemmas it rests on. It needs no probability: only the combinatorics of the network and linear programming.

Setting

A matching network has agent types A={1,…,n}\mathcal A = \{1,\dots,n\}A={1,…,n} and matches M={1,…,d}\mathcal M = \{1,\dots,d\}M={1,…,d}. Match mmm uses one agent of each type in a set A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) with ∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)| \ge 2∣A(m)∣≥2, every type belongs to some match, and the matching matrix M∈{0,1}n×dM \in \{0,1\}^{n\times d}M∈{0,1}n×d has Mim=1M_{im} = 1Mim​=1 iff i∈A(m)i \in \mathcal A(m)i∈A(m). Arrival probabilities λ\lambdaλ satisfy λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i \lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1, and match values satisfy rm>0r_m > 0rm​>0.

The matching network graph G\mathcal GG is the bipartite graph whose vertices are the types and the matches, with an edge between type iii and match mmm iff i∈A(m)i \in \mathcal A(m)i∈A(m).

For a right-hand side b∈Rnb \in \mathbb R^nb∈Rn, the static-planning problem is

max⁡ r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=b,z∈R≥0d, s∈R≥0n,\max\ r\cdot z\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Mz + s = b,\quad z \in \mathbb R^d_{\ge 0},\ s \in \mathbb R^n_{\ge 0},max r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=b,z∈R≥0d​, s∈R≥0n​,

and (SPP) is the case b=λb = \lambdab=λ. For a solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) write M+={m:zm∗>0}\mathcal M_+ = \{m : z^*_m > 0\}M+​={m:zm∗​>0} (active matches), M0=M∖M+\mathcal M_0 = \mathcal M \setminus \mathcal M_+M0​=M∖M+​ (redundant matches), Q+={j:sj∗>0}\mathcal Q_+ = \{j : s^*_j > 0\}Q+​={j:sj∗​>0} and Q0=A∖Q+\mathcal Q_0 = \mathcal A \setminus \mathcal Q_+Q0​=A∖Q+​.

The network satisfies the general position condition (GP) if (SPP) has a unique optimal solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) and it is non-degenerate: ∣M+∣+∣Q+∣=n|\mathcal M_+| + |\mathcal Q_+| = n∣M+​∣+∣Q+​∣=n. The optimal basis matrix B\mathcal BB is formed by the columns of MMM indexed by M+\mathcal M_+M+​ and the unit vectors eje_jej​, j∈Q+j \in \mathcal Q_+j∈Q+​.

The (SPP)-residual graph is G\mathcal GG with the redundant matches removed, and the network is (SPP)-acyclic if it satisfies GP and its (SPP)-residual graph has no cycle.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (p. 25)

Assume GP and (SPP)-acyclicity. Then there are vectors yl∈{−1,0,1}ny^l \in \{-1,0,1\}^nyl∈{−1,0,1}n, l∈M+∪Q+l \in \mathcal M_+ \cup \mathcal Q_+l∈M+​∪Q+​, with

zm∗=ymλ>0 (m∈M+),sj∗=yjλ>0 (j∈Q+),z^*_m = y^m\lambda > 0\ (m \in \mathcal M_+),\qquad s^*_j = y^j\lambda > 0\ (j \in \mathcal Q_+),zm∗​=ymλ>0 (m∈M+​),sj∗​=yjλ>0 (j∈Q+​),

and every right-hand side λ~>0\tilde\lambda > 0λ~>0 with ylλ~>0y^l\tilde\lambda > 0ylλ~>0 for all lll has, as its unique optimal solution, zm=ymλ~z_m = y^m\tilde\lambdazm​=ymλ~ on M+\mathcal M_+M+​, sj=yjλ~s_j = y^j\tilde\lambdasj​=yjλ~ on Q+\mathcal Q_+Q+​, and zero elsewhere.

Milestones

  1. (4), p. 20. Under GP, B\mathcal BB is invertible and (zM+∗,sQ+∗)=B−1λ>0(z^*_{\mathcal M_+}, s^*_{\mathcal Q_+}) = \mathcal B^{-1}\lambda > 0(zM+​∗​,sQ+​∗​)=B−1λ>0.
  2. §4.2, p. 20. Under GP the same basis remains optimal for every λ~>0\tilde\lambda > 0λ~>0 with ∥λ~−λ∥∞≤ζ0\|\tilde\lambda - \lambda\|_\infty \le \zeta_0∥λ~−λ∥∞​≤ζ0​, for some ζ0>0\zeta_0 > 0ζ0​>0.
  3. Lemma C.1, p. 44. A connected acyclic matching network graph has at least n−d+1n - d + 1n−d+1 leaves; under GP with M0=∅\mathcal M_0 = \emptysetM0​=∅ and a connected acyclic residual graph, ∣Q+∣=n−d|\mathcal Q_+| = n - d∣Q+​∣=n−d and some over-demanded queue takes part in exactly one match.

A further theorem item, Lemma 5.1 (p. 24), states that under GP a network with only two-way matches, in which every cycle contains an even number of matches, is (SPP)-acyclic.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 turns the regret constant of the paper's main theorem into a quantity one can read off the data: every positive basic variable, and therefore ϵ\epsilonϵ, is ∑iyiλi\sum_i y_i\lambda_i∑i​yi​λi​ with coefficients in {−1,0,1}\{-1,0,1\}{−1,0,1}. Its second sentence describes the whole region of right-hand sides on which the same basis stays optimal, an open polyhedral cone cut out by the inequalities ylλ~>0y^l\tilde\lambda > 0ylλ~>0, which is how the paper relates GP to the arrival rates in §5.1.

On the formal side, the mission builds a reusable model of the matching network, its bipartite incidence graph and the static-planning linear program with a variable right-hand side. Prove2Me does not yet contain the structural theory of optimal bases of such programs. Theorem 5.1 and its milestones are proved in the paper (Appendix C and §4.2); none of them is machine-checked yet.

Difficulty

The representation z∗=B−1λz^* = \mathcal B^{-1}\lambdaz∗=B−1λ holds for every network in general position, so the content of the theorem lies in two places.

  • The entries of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1. Inverses of 0/10/10/1 matrices have arbitrary rational entries in general: the triangle network (three types, matches {1,2},{2,3},{1,3}\{1,2\},\{2,3\},\{1,3\}{1,2},{2,3},{1,3}) has an optimal basis whose inverse has entries ±12\pm\tfrac12±21​. The claim needs the acyclic structure of the residual graph in an essential way.
  • The second sentence. Exhibiting numbers yly^lyl with ylλ=zl∗y^l\lambda = z^*_lylλ=zl∗​ is trivial and says nothing. The statement requires the same vectors to produce the unique optimal solution for a whole open set of right-hand sides, which forces them to be the rows of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1. This step therefore also involves the optimality conditions of (SPP) and the uniqueness part of GP.

Formalization scope

Types are Fin n, matches Fin d, both 0-based. The topology is the structure MatchingNetwork with the fields ∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)| \ge 2∣A(m)∣≥2 and "every type is in a match"; λ\lambdaλ and rrr are separate vectors with the standing predicates λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1 and rm>0r_m > 0rm​>0, which are hypotheses of every theorem. The optimal solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) is an argument together with the GP hypothesis, never a default or a choice. The graph is a SimpleGraph on Fin n ⊕ Fin d; the residual graph keeps redundant matches as isolated vertices, which affects neither acyclicity nor the degrees of type vertices. The column index type of B\mathcal BB is M+⊔Q+\mathcal M_+ \sqcup \mathcal Q_+M+​⊔Q+​, and the inverse is a two-sided inverse over these index types, not Matrix.inv, which is 000 on singular matrices.

Conventions the statements commit to:

  • in Theorem 5.1, "induces the optimal solution" is read as the unique optimal solution, and λ~\tilde\lambdaλ~ is any positive vector, not necessarily summing to one;
  • "for all sufficiently small ζ0\zeta_0ζ0​" in milestone 2 is the existence of one ζ0>0\zeta_0 > 0ζ0​>0;
  • Lemma C.1's count of n−d+1n - d + 1n−d+1 leaves is stated without natural-number subtraction;
  • Lemma C.1's second half carries the standing reduction of Appendix C (M0=∅\mathcal M_0 = \emptysetM0​=∅, one connected component) as hypotheses;
  • "every cycle contains an even number of matches" in Lemma 5.1 is stated as "every cycle of the bipartite graph has length divisible by 4".

The paper's own text says "all entries of YYY are either −1-1−1, 000, or −1-1−1" (p. 25); this is read as −1-1−1, 000 or 111, as in the theorem's statement.

A formalization that keeps only the first sentence of Theorem 5.1, or that lets the vectors yly^lyl be unrelated to the basis, is trivially satisfiable and is not the theorem.

Needed infrastructure: optimality conditions for linear programs in equality form (reduced costs, uniqueness of a non-degenerate optimum), Mathlib's acyclic graphs and trees (SimpleGraph.IsAcyclic, IsTree.card_edgeFinset), and degree counting on bipartite graphs. The paper proves Theorem 5.1 in Appendix C by an explicit construction along paths of the residual graph; any correct argument is welcome. Lemmas on the inverse of a basis matrix whose bipartite row–column graph is a forest would be reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • S. Kerimov, I. Ashlagi, I. Gurvich, Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret, SSRN 3824407 (version of September 14, 2022); Management Science (2023). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3824407, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997, §5.1 (sensitivity analysis of an optimal basis).
10 thms1 active userReviewed
AnalysisNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Generalized Newton Method for Subgradient Systems 1: Under Metric Regularity and Semismoothness*, the Prox-Based Newton Algorithm Converges Superlinearly for Prox-Regular FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization reduce to a subgradient inclusion 0∈∂φ(x)0\in\partial\varphi(x)0∈∂φ(x): for a smooth φ\varphiφ this is the gradient equation ∇φ(x)=0\nabla\varphi(x)=0∇φ(x)=0, and for an extended-real-valued φ=f+g\varphi=f+gφ=f+g (a smooth loss plus an indicator or a nonsmooth regularizer) it is the first-order optimality condition of a composite problem. Newton's method is the classical way to solve such equations with a superlinear rate, but its textbook form needs φ∈C2\varphi\in C^2φ∈C2 and a nonsingular Hessian. Khanh, Mordukhovich and Phat (arXiv:2009.10551v2, 2022; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) design a Newton-type method in which the Hessian is replaced by Mordukhovich's second-order subdifferential ∂2φ\partial^2\varphi∂2φ, and prove local superlinear convergence under two assumptions that are weaker than the usual ones: metric regularity (instead of strong metric regularity or tilt stability) and the semismooth* property of Gfrerer and Outrata.

Timeline of the ingredients:

  • 1996: Poliquin and Rockafellar introduce prox-regular functions and show that, for small parameters, their Moreau envelopes are C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 near the reference point and their proximal mappings are single-valued and Lipschitz there (Trans. AMS 348).
  • 2002: Klatte and Kummer develop Newton methods for Lipschitzian equations through generalized derivatives (Nonsmooth Equations in Optimization, Kluwer).
  • 2021: Gfrerer and Outrata define semismooth* set-valued maps and a semismooth* Newton method (SIAM J. Optim. 31).
  • 2021: Mordukhovich and Sarabi give a generalized Newton method for tilt-stable minimizers of prox-regular functions (SIAM J. Optim. 31).
  • 2020/2022: Khanh, Mordukhovich and Phat replace tilt stability and strong metric regularity by metric regularity of ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ.

Setting

Let φ:Rn→(−∞,∞]\varphi:\mathbb R^n\to(-\infty,\infty]φ:Rn→(−∞,∞] be proper. Its limiting subdifferential ∂φ(x)\partial\varphi(x)∂φ(x) collects the limits of Fréchet subgradients at points xk→xx_k\to xxk​→x with φ(xk)→φ(x)\varphi(x_k)\to\varphi(x)φ(xk​)→φ(x). For a set Ω\OmegaΩ, the regular normal cone N^Ω(z)\widehat N_\Omega(z)NΩ​(z) contains the vectors aaa with ⟨a,w−z⟩≤o(∥w−z∥)\langle a,w-z\rangle\le o(\|w-z\|)⟨a,w−z⟩≤o(∥w−z∥) for w∈Ωw\in\Omegaw∈Ω; the limiting normal cone NΩ(z)N_\Omega(z)NΩ​(z) contains the limits of regular normals at nearby points. For a set-valued GGG, the coderivative is D∗G(x,y)(w)={u:(u,−w)∈Ngph⁡G(x,y)}D^*G(x,y)(w)=\{u:(u,-w)\in N_{\operatorname{gph}G}(x,y)\}D∗G(x,y)(w)={u:(u,−w)∈NgphG​(x,y)}, and the second-order subdifferential is ∂2φ(x,v)=D∗∂φ(x,v)\partial^2\varphi(x,v)=D^*\partial\varphi(x,v)∂2φ(x,v)=D∗∂φ(x,v).

The function φ\varphiφ is prox-regular at xˉ\bar xxˉ for vˉ∈∂φ(xˉ)\bar v\in\partial\varphi(\bar x)vˉ∈∂φ(xˉ) with modulus r>0r>0r>0 if it is l.s.c. around xˉ\bar xxˉ and, for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, φ(x)≥φ(u)+⟨v,x−u⟩−r2∥x−u∥2\varphi(x)\ge\varphi(u)+\langle v,x-u\rangle-\tfrac r2\|x-u\|^2φ(x)≥φ(u)+⟨v,x−u⟩−2r​∥x−u∥2 whenever x,ux,ux,u lie within ε\varepsilonε of xˉ\bar xxˉ, ∣φ(u)−φ(xˉ)∣<ε|\varphi(u)-\varphi(\bar x)|<\varepsilon∣φ(u)−φ(xˉ)∣<ε and v∈∂φ(u)v\in\partial\varphi(u)v∈∂φ(u) lies within ε\varepsilonε of vˉ\bar vvˉ. It is continuously prox-regular if, in addition, φ(xk)→φ(xˉ)\varphi(x_k)\to\varphi(\bar x)φ(xk​)→φ(xˉ) along every (xk,vk)→(xˉ,vˉ)(x_k,v_k)\to(\bar x,\bar v)(xk​,vk​)→(xˉ,vˉ) with vk∈∂φ(xk)v_k\in\partial\varphi(x_k)vk​∈∂φ(xk​). It is prox-bounded if it is bounded below by a quadratic function.

For λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the Moreau envelope and proximal mapping are

eλφ(x)=inf⁡y{φ(y)+12λ∥y−x∥2},Prox⁡λφ(x)=argmin⁡y{φ(y)+12λ∥y−x∥2}.e_\lambda\varphi(x)=\inf_y\Big\{\varphi(y)+\tfrac1{2\lambda}\|y-x\|^2\Big\},\qquad \operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)=\operatorname*{argmin}_y\Big\{\varphi(y)+\tfrac1{2\lambda}\|y-x\|^2\Big\}.eλ​φ(x)=yinf​{φ(y)+2λ1​∥y−x∥2},Proxλ​φ(x)=yargmin​{φ(y)+2λ1​∥y−x∥2}.

Algorithm 6.2 starts at x0∈Uλ=rge⁡(I+λ∂φ)x^0\in U_\lambda=\operatorname{rge}(I+\lambda\partial\varphi)x0∈Uλ​=rge(I+λ∂φ). While 0∉∂φ(xk)0\notin\partial\varphi(x^k)0∈/∂φ(xk) it sets vk=λ−1(xk−Prox⁡λφ(xk))v^k=\lambda^{-1}(x^k-\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x^k))vk=λ−1(xk−Proxλ​φ(xk)), picks any dkd^kdk with −vk∈∂2φ(xk−λvk,vk)(λvk+dk)-v^k\in\partial^2\varphi(x^k-\lambda v^k,v^k)(\lambda v^k+d^k)−vk∈∂2φ(xk−λvk,vk)(λvk+dk), and moves to xk+1=xk+dkx^{k+1}=x^k+d^kxk+1=xk+dk.

The standing assumptions at a solution xˉ\bar xxˉ are:

  • (H1) the inclusion −v∈∂2φ(x,v)(d)-v\in\partial^2\varphi(x,v)(d)−v∈∂2φ(x,v)(d) is solvable for every (x,v)∈gph⁡∂φ(x,v)\in\operatorname{gph}\partial\varphi(x,v)∈gph∂φ near (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0);
  • (H2) ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ is metrically regular around (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0);
  • (H3) ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ is semismooth* at (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.6 (corrected parameter range)

If φ\varphiφ is proper, prox-bounded, continuously prox-regular at xˉ\bar xxˉ for 0∈∂φ(xˉ)0\in\partial\varphi(\bar x)0∈∂φ(xˉ) with constants r,εr,\varepsilonr,ε, and (H1)–(H3) hold, then

∃ λ0∈(0,r−1]  ∀λ∈(0,λ0)  ∃ U∈N(xˉ), U⊆Uλ: Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from U and every run from U converges Q-superlinearly to xˉ.\exists\,\lambda_0\in(0,r^{-1}]\ \ \forall\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0)\ \ \exists\,U\in\mathcal N(\bar x),\ U\subseteq U_\lambda:\ \text{Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from }U\text{ and every run from }U\text{ converges Q-superlinearly to }\bar x.∃λ0​∈(0,r−1]  ∀λ∈(0,λ0​)  ∃U∈N(xˉ), U⊆Uλ​: Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from U and every run from U converges Q-superlinearly to xˉ.

Milestones

  • Lemma 5.4: for continuous FFF, metric regularity around xˉ\bar xxˉ holds iff ∥v∥≥c∥u∥\|v\|\ge c\|u\|∥v∥≥c∥u∥ for all v∈D∗F(x)(u)v\in D^*F(x)(u)v∈D∗F(x)(u), xxx near xˉ\bar xxˉ.
  • Lemma 5.6: D∗F(xˉ)(u1+u2)⊆D∗F(xˉ)(u1)+D∗F(xˉ)(u2)D^*F(\bar x)(u_1+u_2)\subseteq D^*F(\bar x)(u_1)+D^*F(\bar x)(u_2)D∗F(xˉ)(u1​+u2​)⊆D∗F(xˉ)(u1​)+D∗F(xˉ)(u2​) for locally Lipschitz FFF.
  • Lemma 5.5: for C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 φ\varphiφ, ∇φ\nabla\varphi∇φ is semismooth* at xˉ\bar xxˉ iff ∇φ(x)−∇φ(xˉ)−∂2φ(x)(x−xˉ)⊆o(∥x−xˉ∥)\nabla\varphi(x)-\nabla\varphi(\bar x)-\partial^2\varphi(x)(x-\bar x)\subseteq o(\|x-\bar x\|)∇φ(x)−∇φ(xˉ)−∂2φ(x)(x−xˉ)⊆o(∥x−xˉ∥).
  • Theorem 5.7: the C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 Newton method (Algorithm 5.3) converges locally Q-superlinearly under (H1)–(H3) for ∇φ\nabla\varphi∇φ.
  • Lemma 6.3 (i)–(iii), corrected: near xˉ+λvˉ\bar x+\lambda\bar vxˉ+λvˉ, and for λ\lambdaλ small, eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ is C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1, Prox⁡λφ\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphiProxλ​φ is single-valued, monotone and Lipschitz, and ∇eλφ(x)=λ−1(x−Prox⁡λφ(x))\nabla e_\lambda\varphi(x)=\lambda^{-1}(x-\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x))∇eλ​φ(x)=λ−1(x−Proxλ​φ(x)).
  • Lemma 6.4, corrected: x∗∈D∗∇eλφ(x,v)(v∗)  ⟺  x∗∈∂2φ(x−λv,v)(v∗−λx∗)x^*\in D^*\nabla e_\lambda\varphi(x,v)(v^*)\iff x^*\in\partial^2\varphi(x-\lambda v,v)(v^*-\lambda x^*)x∗∈D∗∇eλ​φ(x,v)(v∗)⟺x∗∈∂2φ(x−λv,v)(v∗−λx∗).
  • Remark 6.5, corrected: the steps of Algorithm 6.2 are the steps of Algorithm 5.3 for eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ.

Significance

The result gives a Newton method for nonsmooth, nonconvex subgradient inclusions whose convergence does not require strong metric regularity. Example 5.2 of the paper exhibits a C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 function whose gradient is metrically regular and semismooth* but not strongly metrically regular, so the theorem covers solutions that earlier generalized Newton theories exclude. Through the Moreau envelope, the method reduces to a C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 gradient equation; the same reduction, with the forward–backward envelope, drives the paper's composite algorithm (the companion mission) and its applications to Lasso-type problems.

The paper's results are proved on paper; none of them, nor the underlying theory of coderivatives, second-order subdifferentials or semismooth* maps, is formalized in Mathlib. This mission produces a machine-checked development of that layer and of the convergence theorem. It also fixes a defect: as printed, Lemma 6.3 and Theorem 6.6 claim their conclusions for every λ∈(0,r−1)\lambda\in(0,r^{-1})λ∈(0,r−1), which is false (see Formalization scope); the formal statements are the corrected ones.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says "Algorithm 6.2 is Algorithm 5.3 for eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ, so apply Theorem 5.7". Each step of that sentence carries the difficulty. Transferring (H1)–(H3) from ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ to ∇eλφ\nabla e_\lambda\varphi∇eλ​φ requires the coderivative of the inverse (λI+∂φ−1)−1(\lambda I+\partial\varphi^{-1})^{-1}(λI+∂φ−1)−1, which needs a local graphical calculus for limiting normals that Mathlib does not have. The C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 property of the envelope and single-valuedness of the proximal map hold only for small λ\lambdaλ and near xˉ+λvˉ\bar x+\lambda\bar vxˉ+λvˉ: prox-regularity is local while Prox⁡λφ\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphiProxλ​φ minimizes globally, so a far-away deep well can capture the proximal point. Theorem 5.7 itself rests on a uniform coderivative bound from metric regularity (Lemma 5.4, a pointwise-to-uniform form of the Mordukhovich coderivative criterion) and on the semismooth* estimate (Lemma 5.5), which combines directional normal cones with the symmetry of generalized Hessians.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); definitions are stated on real inner product spaces, and E×FE\times FE×F carries the sup norm (the cones are norm-independent).
  • ∂\partial∂ is the published analytic limiting subdifferential NonconvexSplitting.Shared.LimitingSubdiff. It agrees with the paper's geometric (2.9) for functions l.s.c. around the point, which covers every function ∂\partial∂ is applied to here.
  • φ\varphiφ takes values in EReal and is assumed proper; the envelope is EReal-valued, and finiteness is asserted wherever it is differentiated.
  • Prox⁡λφ(x)\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)Proxλ​φ(x) is the argmin set. A run of an algorithm selects any proximal point and any direction solving the Newton inclusion. The stop of Step 1 is a constant tail. Well-definedness means every partial run from UUU can be continued.
  • Metric regularity uses dist⁡(⋅;∅)=+∞\operatorname{dist}(\cdot;\emptyset)=+\inftydist(⋅;∅)=+∞. Q-superlinear convergence is stated in ε\varepsilonε-form, avoiding 0/00/00/0. C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 is local to a neighbourhood.
  • Correction. Lemma 6.3, Lemma 6.4, Remark 6.5 and Theorem 6.6 are posed as "there is λ0∈(0,r−1]\lambda_0\in(0,r^{-1}]λ0​∈(0,r−1] such that for every λ∈(0,λ0)\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0)λ∈(0,λ0​)", on neighbourhoods instead of UλU_\lambdaUλ​. As printed they fail for φ(y)=12y2\varphi(y)=\tfrac12y^2φ(y)=21​y2 on [−5,5][-5,5][−5,5], −1000−∣y−10∣-1000-|y-10|−1000−∣y−10∣ on [9,11][9,11][9,11], +∞+\infty+∞ elsewhere, with xˉ=0\bar x=0xˉ=0, r=1r=1r=1, λ=12\lambda=\tfrac12λ=21​: there Prox⁡λφ(x)={9}\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)=\{9\}Proxλ​φ(x)={9} near 000, and Algorithm 6.2 jumps to the stationary point 999. Lemmas 5.4–5.6 and Theorem 5.7 are posed as printed.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0 is part of the conclusion, so the ∀λ\forall\lambda∀λ is never vacuous; conclusions hold for every run rather than for a run chosen by Classical.choose; and φ\varphiφ is not specialized (no convexity, which would make Uλ=RnU_\lambda=\mathbb R^nUλ​=Rn; no C2C^2C2; no strong metric regularity; no assumption that xˉ\bar xxˉ is a minimizer).
  • Reusable infrastructure: normal cones to graphs, limiting and directional coderivatives, metric regularity, semismooth*, prox-regularity, Moreau envelopes. Formalizations of Mordukhovich's coderivative criterion, of the scalarization formula D∗F(xˉ)(u)=∂⟨u,F⟩(xˉ)D^*F(\bar x)(u)=\partial\langle u,F\rangle(\bar x)D∗F(xˉ)(u)=∂⟨u,F⟩(xˉ) for Lipschitz FFF, and of Poliquin–Rockafellar's Theorem 4.4 are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • P. D. Khanh, B. S. Mordukhovich, V. T. Phat, A Generalized Newton Method for Subgradient Systems, arXiv:2009.10551v2, 2022; Math. Oper. Res., 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.10551
  • R. A. Poliquin, R. T. Rockafellar, Prox-regular functions in variational analysis, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 348, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-96-01544-9
  • H. Gfrerer, J. V. Outrata, On a semismooth Newton method for solving generalized equations*, SIAM J. Optim. 31, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1257408
  • B. S. Mordukhovich, M. E. Sarabi, Generalized Newton algorithms for tilt-stable minimizers in nonsmooth optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 31, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1329937
  • B. S. Mordukhovich, Variational Analysis and Generalized Differentiation I, Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-31247-1
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
15 thms1 active userReviewed
EconomicsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy II: The Optimal Hybrid Inspection Policy Strictly Beats the Random Policy and Weakly Beats the Periodic PolicyResearch Paper

Why inspection timing matters

Banks and other financial firms lose money through operational errors: mistyped trades, missed reconciliations, compliance lapses. Regulators require the firm to hold capital against these losses, and internal audit teams spend most of their effort deciding when to inspect. Two inspection schedules are common in practice: a periodic schedule (inspect every month) and a random schedule (surprise audits). A periodic schedule leaves no error undetected for long, but an employee who knows the date can relax right after an inspection and work hard only before the next one. A random schedule removes that back-loading, but leaves some errors undetected for long stretches.

Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy (SSRN 3491006; published in Management Science, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2021.00322), model this trade-off as a principal–agent problem with moral hazard. They show that neither pure schedule dominates the other (their Proposition 4, the subject of mission I of this series), and then propose a hybrid schedule that combines them. This mission formalizes their Proposition 5: the best hybrid schedule beats the best random schedule strictly and the best periodic schedule weakly.

The source used throughout is the authors' SSRN preprint, version of July 2023. All labels (Proposition 5, Lemma 5, (EC.55), …) and page numbers are those of that version, not of the published article.

The model

A firm (the principal) employs an agent whose errors arrive as a Poisson process with rate λe−at\lambda e^{-a_t}λe−at​. Here at≥0a_t\ge0at​≥0 is the agent's effort at time ttt since the last inspection, at unit cost ccc. Each undetected error costs the principal LLL per unit of time until an inspection finds it. At each inspection the agent pays a penalty PPP per error found. The principal pays a wage www per unit of time and an inspection cost KKK per inspection, earns base profit μ\muμ, and both parties discount at rate rrr. The agent accepts the job only if his payoff is at least his reservation payoff πˉ\bar\piπˉ. Write μˉ=μ−rπˉ\bar\mu=\mu-r\bar\piμˉ​=μ−rπˉ.

The time τ\tauτ between two inspections is drawn independently in every cycle from a law chosen by the principal, with mean 1/v1/v1/v (the frequency vvv):

  • random policy RRR: τ∼Exp(v)\tau\sim\mathrm{Exp}(v)τ∼Exp(v);
  • periodic policy DDD: τ=1/v\tau=1/vτ=1/v;
  • hybrid policy H(q)H(q)H(q), q∈[0,1]q\in[0,1]q∈[0,1]: inspect at time q/vq/vq/v with probability qqq; otherwise wait a further Exp(v)\mathrm{Exp}(v)Exp(v) time. Its distribution function is (21):
Fτ(t)={1−(1−q)e−v(t−q/v),t>q/v,q,t=q/v,0,t<q/v.F_\tau(t)=\begin{cases}1-(1-q)e^{-v(t-q/v)}, & t>q/v,\\ q, & t=q/v,\\ 0, & t<q/v.\end{cases}Fτ​(t)=⎩⎨⎧​1−(1−q)e−v(t−q/v),q,0,​t>q/v,t=q/v,t<q/v.​

H(1)H(1)H(1) is the periodic policy and H(0)H(0)H(0) the random one.

Given a policy and a strategy (v,P,w)(v,P,w)(v,P,w), the agent chooses an effort path that maximizes his discounted payoff (1). The principal's discounted payoff is (3):

Π(v,P,w)=μ−wr−L E[∫0τNta∗e−rtdt]1−E[e−rτ]+P E[Nτa∗e−rτ]1−E[e−rτ]−Ker/v−1,\Pi(v,P,w)=\frac{\mu-w}{r}-L\,\frac{\mathbb E[\int_0^\tau N^{a^*}_t e^{-rt}dt]}{1-\mathbb E[e^{-r\tau}]}+P\,\frac{\mathbb E[N^{a^*}_\tau e^{-r\tau}]}{1-\mathbb E[e^{-r\tau}]}-\frac{K}{e^{r/v}-1},Π(v,P,w)=rμ−w​−L1−E[e−rτ]E[∫0τ​Nta∗​e−rtdt]​+P1−E[e−rτ]E[Nτa∗​e−rτ]​−er/v−1K​,

where a∗a^*a∗ is the agent's optimal effort and NtaN^{a}_tNta​ is the number of errors made by time ttt in a cycle. The principal maximizes Π\PiΠ over v,P,w≥0v,P,w\ge0v,P,w≥0 subject to participation (4)–(5). Throughout, Assumption 1 holds: c<Lλ/r<μˉc<L\lambda/r<\bar\muc<Lλ/r<μˉ​. The optimal payoff under policy III is written ΠI(SI∗)\Pi_I(S^*_I)ΠI​(SI∗​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 20)

For every inspection cost K>0K>0K>0 there is a payoff xHx_HxH​ achievable by some hybrid policy such that

xR<xH  for all achievable random payoffs xR,xD≤xH  for all achievable periodic payoffs xD.x_R<x_H\ \text{ for all achievable random payoffs } x_R,\qquad x_D\le x_H\ \text{ for all achievable periodic payoffs } x_D .xR​<xH​  for all achievable random payoffs xR​,xD​≤xH​  for all achievable periodic payoffs xD​.

In the paper's notation, ΠH(q∗)(SH(q∗)∗)>ΠR(SR∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}(S^*_{H(q^*)})>\Pi_R(S^*_R)ΠH(q∗)​(SH(q∗)∗​)>ΠR​(SR∗​) and ΠH(q∗)(SH(q∗)∗)≥ΠD(SD∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}(S^*_{H(q^*)})\ge\Pi_D(S^*_D)ΠH(q∗)​(SH(q∗)∗​)≥ΠD​(SD∗​).

Milestones

  1. (6), p. 10. At an optimal strategy the participation constraint binds, and ΠI=VI(v,P)\Pi_I=V_I(v,P)ΠI​=VI​(v,P), the reduced payoff (6).
  2. Lemma 3, p. 13. Under RRR the optimal effort is constant, with e−a∗=min⁡{cPλr+vv,1}e^{-a^*}=\min\{\frac{c}{P\lambda}\frac{r+v}{v},1\}e−a∗=min{Pλc​vr+v​,1}, and it is zero when P≤c/λP\le c/\lambdaP≤c/λ.
  3. Lemma 5(a), pp. 19–20. Under H(q)H(q)H(q) the optimal effort is given by (22): dynamic before q/vq/vq/v, constant after it.
  4. Lemma EC.3, p. ec8. The optimal random strategy is SR1S^1_RSR1​ (effort inducement) or SR0S^0_RSR0​ (error correction).
  5. Proposition 1, p. 14. SR1S^1_RSR1​ is optimal above a threshold KRK_RKR​ and SR0S^0_RSR0​ below it, in closed form with an implicitly defined α\alphaα and vR0v^0_RvR0​.
  6. (EC.55), pp. ec34–ec35. With zero effort, VH(q)0(v)>VR0(v)V^0_{H(q)}(v)>V^0_R(v)VH(q)0​(v)>VR0​(v) if and only if v>vqv>v^qv>vq, where eqr/vq=1+qr/vq+(qr/vq)2e^{qr/v^q}=1+qr/v^q+(qr/v^q)^2eqr/vq=1+qr/vq+(qr/vq)2, and vq<qrv^q<qrvq<qr.

Significance

Proposition 5 says that reducing the randomness of a surprise-audit schedule, in the hybrid way, strictly improves the principal's optimal payoff whatever the inspection cost. Combined with Proposition 4 it yields the paper's Corollary 1: when inspections are expensive, the optimal mix lies strictly between the two pure policies. The comparison is between optima: each policy is evaluated at its own best frequency, penalty and wage, with the agent best-responding.

The result is proved in the paper (pp. ec34–ec35); to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a measure-theoretic treatment of renewal-type payoffs against three inspection laws, the agent's optimal control problem under each law, and the closed-form solution of the random policy (Proposition 1). The model layer (laws, payoffs, best response, achievable payoffs) is shared with mission I of this series.

Where the difficulty lies

The weak part is immediate, because the periodic policy is the hybrid policy with q=1q=1q=1. The strict part is not a comparison of two closed forms: the hybrid optimum has no closed form, and the optimal mix q∗q^*q∗ is not computed. The random optimum itself is one of two strategies of different nature (Lemma EC.3), effort-inducing or error-correcting, and the agent's response under H(q)H(q)H(q) has a different shape from his response under RRR (Lemma 5), so the regime boundaries of the two policies do not coincide. The naive claim that H(q)H(q)H(q) beats RRR at every strategy is false: with zero effort, VH(q)0(v)<VR0(v)V^0_{H(q)}(v)<V^0_R(v)VH(q)0​(v)<VR0​(v) whenever v<vqv<v^qv<vq (EC.55), so whether mixing helps depends on the frequency.

Formalization scope

  • Model layer. The M\mathcal MM error classes enter only through λ=∑mλm\lambda=\sum_m\lambda_mλ=∑m​λm​ and L=∑m(λm/λ)LmL=\sum_m(\lambda_m/\lambda)L_mL=∑m​(λm​/λ)Lm​, as in the paper from p. 10 on. The model starts at the reformulated payoffs (1) and (3): the cycle decomposition of EC.4.1 is not formalized, and expected counts are E[Nta]=λ∫0te−asds\mathbb E[N^a_t]=\lambda\int_0^te^{-a_s}dsE[Nta​]=λ∫0t​e−as​ds, independent of τ\tauτ.
  • Standing assumptions. r,c,λ,L,μ,πˉ,K>0r,c,\lambda,L,\mu,\bar\pi,K>0r,c,λ,L,μ,πˉ,K>0 and Assumption 1 (c<Lλ/r<μˉc<L\lambda/r<\bar\muc<Lλ/r<μˉ​).
  • Effort paths are functions of the time since the last inspection, the same in every cycle. They are measurable, nonnegative and bounded; boundedness keeps every integral finite and loses no optimal effort of Lemmas 3–5.
  • Frequencies are v>0v>0v>0, because (6) contains er/ve^{r/v}er/v.
  • Laws. Exp(v)\mathrm{Exp}(v)Exp(v) is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure v; the periodic law is a Dirac mass at 1/v1/v1/v; the hybrid law is q δq/vq\,\delta_{q/v}qδq/v​ plus (1−q)(1-q)(1−q) times the shifted exponential law.
  • Optima. "Policy AAA's optimum beats policy BBB's" is stated as: some achievable AAA-payoff is larger than every achievable BBB-payoff. No supremum is used, so no junk value of an empty or unbounded set can make a statement true. The argmax q∗q^*q∗ of (25) is not formalized, because the paper does not prove that it exists; one dominating hybrid payoff is exactly what the comparison with ΠH(q∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}ΠH(q∗)​ asserts.
  • Agent optimality is tested at wage 000; the wage enters (1) only as w/rw/rw/r.
  • Divisions. The effort formulas (11) and (22) divide by PPP; they are stated under P>c/λP>c/\lambdaP>c/λ, with the zero-effort case stated separately.
  • Implicit numbers. α\alphaα, vR0v^0_RvR0​ and vqv^qvq are variables carrying their defining equations and positivity.

The goal cannot be satisfied vacuously: it asserts the existence of an achievable hybrid payoff, so an empty achievable set does not make it true.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the integral identities for the three laws (Fubini for E[∫0τ⋅]\mathbb E[\int_0^\tau\cdot]E[∫0τ​⋅]), the pointwise solution of the agent's problem, the two-variable optimization behind Proposition 1, and the final perturbation argument. The law lemmas and the agent's problem are reusable for any renewal-type inspection model.

Selected references

  • Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy, SSRN 3491006, version of July 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3491006
  • Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy, Management Science (published version; not the numbering used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.00322
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Actuarial SciencePartial Differential EquationsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon I: The HJB Variational Inequality Has a Unique Classical Solution with v_x ≥ 1, v_xx ≤ 0 and λv_x + v_xx ≥ 0Research Paper

Dividends, reinsurance and a finite horizon

An insurer that pays dividends to its shareholders faces a trade-off studied since de Finetti (1957): paying out surplus early raises the discounted payout but brings ruin closer. Reinsurance changes the trade-off, because ceding part of each claim lowers the volatility of the surplus at the price of a reinsurance premium. When the insurer may choose both the dividend stream and, at every moment, an arbitrary reinsurance contract, the problem becomes a mixed singular–classical stochastic control problem. Most of the literature treats it on an infinite horizon, where the value function solves an ordinary differential equation. On a finite horizon TTT the value function also depends on time to maturity, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation becomes a parabolic variational inequality with a gradient constraint, and neither its solvability nor the regularity of its solution is classical.

Guan, Xu and Zhou (arXiv:2008.00391v3, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) show by PDE methods that this variational inequality has a classical solution, identify it with the value function, and read the optimal reinsurance contract and dividend barrier off its derivatives. This mission formalizes the PDE part: Theorem 3.1 and the steps of Appendix A that lead to it.

Setting

Claims are nonnegative random variables with common distribution function FFF, F(0−)=0F(0-)=0F(0−)=0, possibly discontinuous. The paper assumes the tail condition

z3 (1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)z^3\,(1-F(z))\ \text{is bounded on }[0,\infty), \tag{3.3}z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)

so the moments μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z) are finite. The other data are the net reinsurance loading γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount factor c>0c>0c>0 and the horizon T>0T>0T>0; the mission assumes γ<μ1\gamma<\mu_1γ<μ1​ throughout.

A reinsurance contract is described by the retained loss H(z)H(z)H(z) the insurer keeps out of a claim of size zzz, with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z; H\mathcal HH is the set of such functions. For a function v(x,t)v(x,t)v(x,t) of the surplus xxx and the time to maturity ttt the operator

Lv=sup⁡H∈H(vxx2∫0∞H(z)2 dF(z)+vx∫0∞H(z) dF(z))−γvx−cv(3.2)\mathcal Lv=\sup_{H\in\mathcal H}\Big(\frac{v_{xx}}2\int_0^\infty H(z)^2\,dF(z)+v_x\int_0^\infty H(z)\,dF(z)\Big)-\gamma v_x-cv \tag{3.2}Lv=H∈Hsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H(z)2dF(z)+vx​∫0∞​H(z)dF(z))−γvx​−cv(3.2)

is the generator of the controlled diffusion approximation of the surplus. The HJB equation is the variational inequality, on QT=(0,∞)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_T=(0,\infty)\times(0,T]QT​=(0,∞)×(0,T],

min⁡{vt−Lv, vx−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)\min\{v_t-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0,\qquad v(0,t)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x. \tag{3.1}min{vt​−Lv, vx​−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)

The functions

A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0),A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\qquad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\qquad(y>0),A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0),

with A=μ2/2A=\mu_2/2A=μ2​/2 and B=μ1B=\mu_1B=μ1​ for y≤0y\le0y≤0, compute the supremum in (3.2), and f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γf(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gammaf(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ has a unique root λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The penalized gradient problem (A.17) on QL,T=(0,L)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_{L,T}=(0,L)\times(0,T]QL,T​=(0,L)×(0,T] is

ut−Tu+βε(u−1)=0,(λu+ux)(0,t)=fε(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,u_t-\mathcal Tu+\beta_\varepsilon(u-1)=0,\quad (\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=f_\varepsilon(t),\quad u(L,t)=1,\quad u(x,0)=1,ut​−Tu+βε​(u−1)=0,(λu+ux​)(0,t)=fε​(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,

with Tu=A(−ux/u)uxx+B(−ux/u)ux−γux−cu\mathcal Tu=A(-u_x/u)u_{xx}+B(-u_x/u)u_x-\gamma u_x-cuTu=A(−ux​/u)uxx​+B(−ux​/u)ux​−γux​−cu, a penalty function βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ and a boundary datum fεf_\varepsilonfε​ that ramps from λ\lambdaλ down to 000 on [0,ε][0,\varepsilon][0,ε].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There is a unique v∈C2,1(Q‾T∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q‾T)v\in C^{2,1}(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T)v∈C2,1(Q​T​∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q​T​) that solves (3.1) and satisfies

vx≥1,vt≥0,vxx≤0,vxxx≥0 (weakly),vxt≥0,λvx+vxx≥0.v_x\ge1,\quad v_t\ge0,\quad v_{xx}\le0,\quad v_{xxx}\ge0\ \text{(weakly)},\quad v_{xt}\ge0,\quad \lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0 .vx​≥1,vt​≥0,vxx​≤0,vxxx​≥0 (weakly),vxt​≥0,λvx​+vxx​≥0.

Uniqueness is among solutions in the same class with the same six properties, as equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​.

Milestones

  1. (A.7)–(A.9): AAA, BBB are non-increasing, Lipschitz, bounded by 12min⁡{y−2,μ2}\tfrac12\min\{y^{-2},\mu_2\}21​min{y−2,μ2​} and min⁡{y−1,μ1}\min\{y^{-1},\mu_1\}min{y−1,μ1​}, with y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1y^3A'=y^2B'=F(1/y)-1y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1.
  2. (A.10): Lv=A(−vxx/vx)vxx+B(−vxx/vx)vx−γvx−cv\mathcal Lv=A(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_{xx}+B(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_x-\gamma v_x-cvLv=A(−vxx​/vx​)vxx​+B(−vxx​/vx​)vx​−γvx​−cv when vx>0v_x>0vx​>0.
  3. (A.12)–(A.13): f′=−A<0f'=-A<0f′=−A<0 everywhere, and fff has a unique root, which is positive.
  4. Lemma A.1: A(−y/z)A(-y/z)A(−y/z) and B(−y/z)B(-y/z)B(−y/z) are Lipschitz on R×[1,∞)\mathbb R\times[1,\infty)R×[1,∞).
  5. Lemma A.2: a comparison principle for (A.17) between functions ≥1\ge1≥1.
  6. Lemma A.3: (A.17) has a C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 solution, and 1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ)1\le u^\varepsilon\le Ke^{\Lambda t}/(x+1/\lambda)1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ) for small ε\varepsilonε, with K=L+1/λ+1K=L+1/\lambda+1K=L+1/λ+1, Λ=μ2/γ2+γλ\Lambda=\mu_2/\gamma^2+\gamma\lambdaΛ=μ2​/γ2+γλ.
  7. Lemmas A.4–A.6: utε≥0u^\varepsilon_t\ge0utε​≥0, uxε≤0u^\varepsilon_x\le0uxε​≤0, λuε+uxε≥0\lambda u^\varepsilon+u^\varepsilon_x\ge0λuε+uxε​≥0, uxxε≥0u^\varepsilon_{xx}\ge0uxxε​≥0.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 is the analytic core of the paper. The verification theorem (Theorem 3.2) needs a classical solution that is increasing and concave in xxx, which Theorem 3.1 provides, and Section 4 derives the shape of the optimal policy from (3.4)–(3.9): the optimal retained loss is min⁡{z, −vx/vxx}\min\{z,\,-v_x/v_{xx}\}min{z,−vx​/vxx​}, and (3.9) bounds the reinsurance barrier away from zero. Without the existence of a classical solution, the HJB equation could only be interpreted in the viscosity sense, whose uniqueness theory for this mixed singular–classical problem is not available, and the strategies would not be well defined.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. A formal development would produce, beyond the theorem, a reusable formal treatment of a parabolic obstacle problem with a Robin boundary condition through penalization, comparison principles for quasilinear parabolic equations, and the explicit reduction of a supremum over reinsurance contracts against an arbitrary claim distribution. The appendix lemmas (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1 are elementary real analysis and are self-contained targets.

Difficulty

The supremum in L\mathcal LL is over a function space and FFF may have atoms, so even the closed form (A.10) and the everywhere-differentiability of fff require care with one-sided derivatives at the jumps of FFF. The operator is fully nonlinear and degenerates as −vxx/vx→∞-v_{xx}/v_x\to\infty−vxx​/vx​→∞, since A(y)→0A(y)\to0A(y)→0. The inequality carries a gradient constraint vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1 rather than an obstacle, and the left boundary condition (λu+ux)(0,t)=0(\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=0(λu+ux​)(0,t)=0 is incompatible with the initial condition at the corner (0,0)(0,0)(0,0), which is why the solution is only claimed to be C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 away from that corner. The obvious route, solving (3.1) directly by a fixed-point argument, does not control vxxv_{xx}vxx​; the paper differentiates in xxx and works with the gradient u=vxu=v_xu=vx​, which turns the gradient constraint into an obstacle but introduces the Robin condition with the wrong sign for a direct maximum principle. The passage ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 needs Wp2,1W^{2,1}_pWp2,1​ and Hölder estimates uniform in ε\varepsilonε, which are not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

  • Functions of (x,t)(x,t)(x,t) are ℝ → ℝ → ℝ; ttt is time to maturity. Partial derivatives are explicit functions vx,vxx,vtv_x, v_{xx}, v_tvx​,vxx​,vt​ tied to vvv by HasDerivAt on sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<t<T0<t<T0<t<T) and continuous on Q‾T∖{(0,0)}\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\}Q​T​∖{(0,0)}; boundary values are these continuous extensions, and (3.1) holds at t=Tt=Tt=T through them.
  • The claim law is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), and F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. H\mathcal HH consists of measurable HHH with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z for z≥0z\ge0z≥0, and L\mathcal LL is defined by the supremum (3.2), not by (A.10).
  • 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a standing hypothesis (the paper imposes it from Section 4; without it fff has no positive root and (3.9) is undefined).
  • (3.7) is read as monotonicity of x↦vxx(x,t)x\mapsto v_{xx}(x,t)x↦vxx​(x,t), (3.8) as monotonicity of t↦vx(x,t)t\mapsto v_x(x,t)t↦vx​(x,t), (3.9) for every positive root of fff.
  • Uniqueness is equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​ within the class of solutions with (3.4)–(3.9). Uniqueness among all classical solutions is not posed: the paper's argument on an unbounded domain uses no growth condition.
  • Penalty data are taken at one fixed ε\varepsilonε; the limit ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 of βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ is not part of the data. "Sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε" is an ε0>0\varepsilon_0>0ε0​>0 depending on the model and LLL.
  • A formalization in which L\mathcal LL is given by its closed form, the derivatives are deriv evaluated at boundary points, or uniqueness is stated as equality of functions on all of R2\mathbb R^2R2, would trivialize or falsify the goal; the statements avoid all three.

Needed infrastructure: interval integrals of monotone functions and their one-sided derivatives, maximum and comparison principles for linear and quasilinear parabolic equations in one space dimension, existence for quasilinear parabolic problems (Leray–Schauder with Schauder estimates), and compactness in Hölder and Sobolev spaces. The parabolic comparison principle and the penalization scheme are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, in particular the elementary ones (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1, are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • C. Guan, Z. Q. Xu, R. Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:2008.00391v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
  • B. de Finetti, Su un'impostazione alternativa della teoria collettiva del rischio, Transactions of the XVth International Congress of Actuaries, 1957.
  • G. M. Lieberman, Second Order Parabolic Differential Equations, World Scientific, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1142/3302
  • L. C. Evans, Partial Differential Equations, 2nd ed., American Mathematical Society, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1090/gsm/019
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Actuarial SciencePartial Differential EquationsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon II: For Discrete Claims the Reinsurance Boundaries Are C¹, Start at 0 and Are Spaced Less Than (z_j − z_{j−1})/2c ApartResearch Paper

Motivation

An insurance company pays out dividends to its shareholders and buys reinsurance to limit its exposure to large claims. Both decisions are dynamic: the right amount to cede and the right moment to pay depend on the current surplus and on the time left until a fixed maturity TTT. Guan, Xu and Zhou (2023) solve the combined problem for a diffusion-approximated surplus with a general claim distribution, a general reinsurance contract (any retained-loss function 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z), and a finite horizon. Their main structural output is a description of the optimal strategy by free boundaries in the surplus–time plane: a dividend barrier d(τ)d(\tau)d(τ), and for each claim size zzz a reinsurance barrier K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ).

A companion mission formalizes the existence and uniqueness of the classical solution of the HJB variational inequality (Theorem 3.1 of the paper). This mission takes that solution as given and formalizes the shape of the boundaries (Section 4 of the paper), culminating in the description of the reinsurance boundaries for discrete claim distributions (Theorem 4.5).

Setting

Claims are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative random variable Z1Z_1Z1​ with distribution function FFF, satisfying the tail condition that z3(1−F(z))z^3(1-F(z))z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Write μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z). The reinsurance loading is γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount rate c>0c>0c>0, the horizon T>0T>0T>0, and throughout 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ (for γ≥μ1\gamma\ge\mu_1γ≥μ1​ the problem is trivial).

The value function v(x,τ)v(x,\tau)v(x,τ), with x≥0x\ge0x≥0 the surplus and τ∈[0,T]\tau\in[0,T]τ∈[0,T] the time to maturity, is the solution of the variational inequality

min⁡{vτ−Lv, vx−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,\min\{v_\tau-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0\ \text{on }(0,\infty)\times(0,T],\qquad v(0,\tau)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x,min{vτ​−Lv, vx​−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,

where

Lv=sup⁡0≤H(z)≤z(vxx2∫0∞H2 dF+vx∫0∞H dF)−γvx−cv.\mathcal Lv=\sup_{0\le H(z)\le z}\Bigl(\frac{v_{xx}}{2}\int_0^\infty H^2\,dF+v_x\int_0^\infty H\,dF\Bigr)-\gamma v_x-cv .Lv=0≤H(z)≤zsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H2dF+vx​∫0∞​HdF)−γvx​−cv.

It is the unique function of class C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T])C^{2,1}([0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C([0,\infty)\times[0,T])C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T]) that solves this inequality and satisfies vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1, vτ≥0v_\tau\ge0vτ​≥0, vxx≤0v_{xx}\le0vxx​≤0, vxxv_{xx}vxx​ nondecreasing in xxx, vxv_xvx​ nondecreasing in τ\tauτ, and λvx+vxx≥0\lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0λvx​+vxx​≥0. Here λ\lambdaλ is the unique positive root of

f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0).f(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gamma,\qquad A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\quad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\quad(y>0).f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0).

The no-dividend region is ND={(x,τ):vx(x,τ)>1}\mathcal{ND}=\{(x,\tau): v_x(x,\tau)>1\}ND={(x,τ):vx​(x,τ)>1}, and the dividend boundary is

d(τ)=inf⁡{x≥0:vx(x,τ)=1}.d(\tau)=\inf\{x\ge0: v_x(x,\tau)=1\}.d(τ)=inf{x≥0:vx​(x,τ)=1}.

For a claim of size zzz the optimal retained loss is −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​ if −vxx/vx>1/z-v_{xx}/v_x>1/z−vxx​/vx​>1/z and zzz otherwise, and the ceded loss I^(z,x,τ)\hat I(z,x,\tau)I^(z,x,τ) is the difference from zzz. The reinsurance boundary is K(z,τ)=sup⁡{x>0:−vxx/vx(x,τ)>1/z}K(z,\tau)=\sup\{x>0: -v_{xx}/v_x(x,\tau)>1/z\}K(z,τ)=sup{x>0:−vxx​/vx​(x,τ)>1/z}. For a discrete law P(Z1=zj)=pj>0\mathbb P(Z_1=z_j)=p_j>0P(Z1​=zj​)=pj​>0 with 0<z1<⋯<zN0<z_1<\dots<z_N0<z1​<⋯<zN​, the jjj-th reinsurance boundary is

Kj(τ)=inf⁡{x>0:−vxxvx(x,τ)≤1zj}.K_j(\tau)=\inf\Bigl\{x>0: -\frac{v_{xx}}{v_x}(x,\tau)\le\frac1{z_j}\Bigr\}.Kj​(τ)=inf{x>0:−vx​vxx​​(x,τ)≤zj​1​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5

For a discrete claim law, every KjK_jKj​ is continuously differentiable on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and for every τ∈(0,T]\tau\in(0,T]τ∈(0,T]:

Kj(τ)=0  if zj≤1λ;0<Ki0(τ)<zi0−1/λ2c;0<Kj(τ)−Kj−1(τ)<zj−zj−12c  (j>i0);lim⁡τ→0+Kj(τ)=0,K_j(\tau)=0\ \text{ if }z_j\le\tfrac1\lambda;\qquad 0<K_{i_0}(\tau)<\frac{z_{i_0}-1/\lambda}{2c};\qquad 0<K_j(\tau)-K_{j-1}(\tau)<\frac{z_j-z_{j-1}}{2c}\ \ (j>i_0);\qquad \lim_{\tau\to0+}K_j(\tau)=0,Kj​(τ)=0  if zj​≤λ1​;0<Ki0​​(τ)<2czi0​​−1/λ​;0<Kj​(τ)−Kj−1​(τ)<2czj​−zj−1​​  (j>i0​);τ→0+lim​Kj​(τ)=0,

where zi0z_{i_0}zi0​​ is the smallest atom above 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4.2: ddd is continuous and nondecreasing on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1+cγ)(cμ2+γ2)/(γc3)d(0+)=0<d(\tau)\le\sqrt{(\mu_1+c\gamma)(c\mu_2+\gamma^2)/(\gamma c^3)}d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1​+cγ)(cμ2​+γ2)/(γc3)​.
  2. Lemma 4.3: vx,vτ∈C2,1v_x,v_\tau\in C^{2,1}vx​,vτ​∈C2,1 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and I^(z,x,τ)=max⁡{z+vx/vxx,0}\hat I(z,x,\tau)=\max\{z+v_x/v_{xx},0\}I^(z,x,τ)=max{z+vx​/vxx​,0} there.
  3. Lemma 4.4: −vx/vxx=1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}=1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​=1/λ at x=0x=0x=0, −vx/vxx>1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}>1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​>1/λ in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c in ND\mathcal{ND}ND.
  4. Section 4.2, p. 18: for z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ, K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)K(z,\tau)\le z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ).

Significance

The theorems turn an existence result for a fully nonlinear variational inequality into a usable description of the optimal policy. Claims below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ are never reinsured; a claim of size z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ is partly ceded only when the surplus lies below a barrier that starts at the origin at maturity, stays below z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)z/(2c)−1/(2cλ), and stays below the dividend barrier, which is itself bounded by an explicit constant independent of the horizon. For discrete claims the barriers are smooth, ordered, and separated by gaps of at most (zj−zj−1)/(2c)(z_j-z_{j-1})/(2c)(zj​−zj−1​)/(2c). The quantity −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, the optimal retention level, is shown to grow at rate at least 2c2c2c in the surplus; this single monotonicity estimate is what makes the regions of the surplus–time plane ordered and nonoverlapping.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor Theorem 3.1 on which they rest, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires the parabolic regularity statements of Lemma 4.3 (the paper's proof invokes interior Schauder estimates) and the implicit function theorem in a form that gives one-variable C1C^1C1 dependence of a level set. Statements of the boundary properties in this mission are posed for any function with the properties of Theorem 3.1, so they can be proved independently of the companion mission.

Difficulty

Most of the elementary statements reduce to a sign or a monotonicity property of −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, and the first idea is to differentiate the equation. That requires vxxxv_{xxx}vxxx​ and vxτv_{x\tau}vxτ​ to exist as classical derivatives in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, which the class of Theorem 3.1 does not provide: it gives only two xxx-derivatives and one τ\tauτ-derivative, and a weak monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​. Lemma 4.3's interior regularity is therefore not a formality but the gateway to Lemma 4.4, and its proof uses Hölder estimates for linear parabolic equations, which are not available in Mathlib.

The positivity d(τ)>0d(\tau)>0d(τ)>0 and the limit d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0 are statements about the free boundary itself, not about vvv at fixed points, and need the uniqueness part of Theorem 3.1 or a comparison argument. The strict inequalities in (4.13)–(4.14) need more than the bound ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c as stated.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DynReinsDiv.Barriers. Conventions:

  • The claim law is a probability measure μ on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0; F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. μ1,μ2\mu_1,\mu_2μ1​,μ2​ are Bochner integrals, finite under the tail condition. The standing hypothesis 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a field of the model.
  • v:R→R→Rv:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rv:R→R→R takes (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ), and the derivatives vx vxx vt are explicit functions: they are HasDerivAt derivatives of the sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<τ<T0<\tau<T0<τ<T) and continuous on [0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}[0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\}[0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}; boundary values (at x=0x=0x=0 and τ=T\tau=Tτ=T) are the continuous extensions. "vxxx≥0v_{xxx}\ge0vxxx​≥0 in the weak sense" is monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​ in xxx, "vxτ≥0v_{x\tau}\ge0vxτ​≥0" is monotonicity of vxv_xvx​ in τ\tauτ.
  • The only hypothesis on vvv is the conclusion of Theorem 3.1, bundled as IsTheorem31Solution. The milestone conclusions (vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0, the bounds on −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0) are never hypotheses; with them as hypotheses Theorem 4.5 would be a short mean-value argument.
  • L\mathcal LL is the supremum over measurable retained-loss functions, not its closed form.
  • Infima and suprema of empty sets are 000 in Lean. Theorem 4.2 concludes that {x≥0:vx=1}\{x\ge0: v_x=1\}{x≥0:vx​=1} is nonempty; K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ) uses 000 for the empty set, as the paper does.
  • Atoms are indexed by Fin N from 000. The paper's index i0i_0i0​ is replaced by conditions on zjz_jzj​ and zj−1z_{j-1}zj−1​, which also cover laws whose atoms all lie below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.
  • Not formalized: d(∞)d(\infty)d(∞) (the horizon is finite; d(τ)≤x2d(\tau)\le x_2d(τ)≤x2​ for every τ≤T\tau\le Tτ≤T and every TTT carries the same content), the C∞C^\inftyC∞ regularity of ddd for bounded claims (only sketched in the paper), and the Verification Theorem 3.2.

Contributions welcome: the interior regularity of Lemma 4.3, the monotonicity estimate (4.10), and the derivation of Theorem 4.5 from the milestones.

Selected references

  • Chonghu Guan, Zuo Quan Xu, Rui Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in a finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; read as arXiv:2008.00391v3 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions 2: Anonymity, Order Preservation, Winner Strict Endowment Monotonicity and Local Consistency Characterize Single-Parametric RulesResearch Paper

Prize money in rank-order competitions

Tournaments, races, poker finals and sports leagues end with a ranking of the participants and a sum of prize money to be split among them. The split is usually fixed by a published schedule, and different events use very different schedules: some pay almost everything to the winner, some pay many places, some decay geometrically from one place to the next. Dietzenbacher and Kondratev (arXiv:2008.08985, published in Management Science, 2023) treat the choice of schedule axiomatically: they state fairness, solidarity and consistency properties that a prize allocation rule may satisfy and characterize the families of rules that satisfy them. Their paper has three characterization theorems. Theorem 1 (interval rules) is the subject of a companion mission; this mission formalizes Theorem 2, the characterization of single-parametric rules under local consistency.

Axiomatic characterizations of allocation rules through consistency have a long history in fair division: bankruptcy problems (Aumann and Maschler, 1985), taxation (Young, 1987), bargaining (Lensberg, 1987) and cooperative games (Peleg, 1986; Hart and Mas-Colell, 1989); the paper's §1 surveys this literature. The paper is, by its own account, the first to apply this approach to prize allocation in rank-order competitions.

Setting

Fix a countable set UUU of at least three potential competitors. A competition (N,R,E)(N,\mathcal R,E)(N,R,E) consists of a finite set N⊆UN\subseteq UN⊆U, a ranking R:N→{1,…,∣N∣}\mathcal R:N\to\{1,\dots,|N|\}R:N→{1,…,∣N∣} (a bijection; iii is ranked above jjj when R(i)<R(j)\mathcal R(i)<\mathcal R(j)R(i)<R(j)) and a prize endowment E≥0E\ge0E≥0. For S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N the subranking RS\mathcal R_SRS​ lists SSS in the order of R\mathcal RR. A prize allocation rule φ\varphiφ assigns to each competition nonnegative prizes φi(N,R,E)\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)φi​(N,R,E), i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, with ∑i∈Nφi(N,R,E)=E\sum_{i\in N}\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=E∑i∈N​φi​(N,R,E)=E.

The axioms of Theorem 2 are:

  • anonymity: the prize depends only on ∣N∣|N|∣N∣, the position and EEE, not on who the competitors are;
  • order preservation: a higher-ranked competitor never receives less than a lower-ranked one;
  • winner strict endowment monotonicity: when EEE increases, nobody receives less, and the winner receives strictly more;
  • local consistency: if a block SSS of consecutively ranked competitors (the condition ∣R(i)−R(j)∣≤∣S∣−1|\mathcal R(i)-\mathcal R(j)|\le|S|-1∣R(i)−R(j)∣≤∣S∣−1 for all i,j∈Si,j\in Si,j∈S) re-divides the total prize it received, using the rule on the reduced competition (S,RS,∑j∈Sφj(N,R,E))(S,\mathcal R_S,\sum_{j\in S}\varphi_j(N,\mathcal R,E))(S,RS​,∑j∈S​φj​(N,R,E)), each member gets the same prize as before.

A representation is a continuous, non-decreasing f:R+→R+f:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+f:R+​→R+​ with f(x)≤xf(x)\le xf(x)≤x. The single-parametric rule with representation fff pays xxx to the winner, f(x)f(x)f(x) to the runner-up, f(f(x))f(f(x))f(f(x)) to the third, and in general

φi(N,R,E)=f(R(i)−1)(x),where x≥0 solves ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)=E.\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=f^{(\mathcal R(i)-1)}(x),\qquad\text{where } x\ge0 \text{ solves } \sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)=E .φi​(N,R,E)=f(R(i)−1)(x),where x≥0 solves k=1∑∣N∣​f(k−1)(x)=E.

Equal Division (f(x)=xf(x)=xf(x)=x), Winner-Takes-All (f=0f=0f=0), Winner-Takes-Surplus (f(x)=min⁡{a,x}f(x)=\min\{a,x\}f(x)=min{a,x}) and the arithmetic rule f(x)=max⁡{0,x−1}f(x)=\max\{0,x-1\}f(x)=max{0,x−1} are examples.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 18)

φ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency  ⟺  φ is a single-parametric rule.\varphi \text{ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency} \iff \varphi \text{ is a single-parametric rule.}φ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency⟺φ is a single-parametric rule.

Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones, in the order the proof on pp. 31–32 uses them

  1. Converse (p. 31): every single-parametric rule satisfies the four axioms.
  2. The representation (p. 31): on a two-competitor competition, the allocation path E↦(φ1,φ2)E\mapsto(\varphi_1,\varphi_2)E↦(φ1​,φ2​) is the graph {(x,f(x))}\{(x,f(x))\}{(x,f(x))} of a well-defined representation fff.
  3. Two-competitor form (p. 31): by anonymity, the rule is the single-parametric rule with representation fff on every competition with two competitors.
  4. Propagation (pp. 31–32): if the single-parametric rule φ′\varphi'φ′ with representation fff first exceeds φ\varphiφ at position iii, then φj′≥φj\varphi'_j\ge\varphi_jφj′​≥φj​ for every j>ij>ij>i.
  5. Uniqueness (p. 32): a locally consistent rule that follows fff on two competitors coincides with φ′\varphi'φ′ everywhere.

The paper's Lemma 1 (endowment monotonicity implies endowment continuity, p. 10) is used at the start of the proof; it is formalized in the companion mission on interval rules, and the milestones here take endowment continuity as a hypothesis.

Companions

  • Existence and uniqueness of xxx (p. 18): for every representation fff, ∣N∣≥1|N|\ge1∣N∣≥1 and E≥0E\ge0E≥0 the equation ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)=E\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)=E∑k=1∣N∣​f(k−1)(x)=E has exactly one solution x≥0x\ge0x≥0.
  • Corollary 5 (p. 19): a single-parametric rule satisfies winner-loser strict order preservation iff f(x)<xf(x)<xf(x)<x for x>0x>0x>0; strict order preservation iff 0<f(x)<x0<f(x)<x0<f(x)<x for x>0x>0x>0; strict endowment monotonicity iff fff is increasing.
  • Corollary 6 (p. 20): anonymity, order preservation, endowment additivity and local consistency characterize the geometric rules φi=λR(i)−1E/∑k=1∣N∣λk−1\varphi_i=\lambda^{\mathcal R(i)-1}E/\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}\lambda^{k-1}φi​=λR(i)−1E/∑k=1∣N∣​λk−1, λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1].

Significance

Theorem 2 reduces an infinite family of allocation schedules, one for every number of competitors and every endowment, to one function of one real variable. A designer who accepts the four axioms only has to choose how the prize of one position determines the prize of the next; the schedule for every field size and every endowment then follows. Corollaries 5 and 6 translate further axioms into shape conditions on that function, and identify the geometric schedules used in practice (the paper fits one to a poker final, p. 20) as the scale-invariant case. Local consistency is the property that a league split into consecutive divisions pays every division the same as the whole league would.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. No part of it has been formalized before: the platform has no model of prize allocation rules or of consistency axioms over variable populations. The mission produces that model (competitions over a universe of competitors, subrankings, the axioms) and a machine-checked proof of the characterization, including the "readily checked" converse that the paper leaves to the reader.

Difficulty

The converse requires that the parameter xxx be well defined: the map x↦∑kf(k−1)(x)x\mapsto\sum_{k}f^{(k-1)}(x)x↦∑k​f(k−1)(x) must be shown continuous, strictly increasing and onto R+\mathbb R_+R+​, so that it can be inverted, and local consistency then requires identifying the parameter of a reduced competition with an iterate of the original one. In the forward direction the representation fff is defined only implicitly, as the second coordinate of the two-competitor allocation path; its continuity and monotonicity come from inverting the strictly increasing winner's prize E↦φ1(N,R,E)E\mapsto\varphi_1(N,\mathcal R,E)E↦φ1​(N,R,E), which needs both endowment continuity and the strict part of winner strict endowment monotonicity. Without the strict part the runner-up's prize is not a function of the winner's, and the paper's Example 5 shows that local consistency alone then does not determine the rule from its two-competitor restriction. The extension from two to many competitors is a comparison argument over positions that uses local consistency only on adjacent pairs.

Formalization scope

  • Competitions. A ranking is a duplicate-free nonempty List U, best competitor first; NNN is its set of entries and R(i)\mathcal R(i)R(i) is the 1-based position pos l i. The subranking RS\mathcal R_SRS​ is the sublist of entries in SSS. UUU is any type with decidable equality; the goal and the corollaries carry the page's standing assumptions [Countable U] and the existence of three distinct elements. Milestones that do not need them omit them.
  • Rules are functions List U → ℝ → U → ℝ. A prize allocation rule is nonnegative and exhausts EEE on every ranking and every E≥0E\ge0E≥0; values elsewhere are irrelevant, and every axiom quantifies only over rankings, E≥0E\ge0E≥0 and competitors in NNN.
  • Representations are functions on R\mathbb RR constrained on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) only: ContinuousOn and MonotoneOn on Set.Ici 0, and 0≤f(x)≤x0\le f(x)\le x0≤f(x)≤x for x≥0x\ge0x≥0. Requiring global continuity or monotonicity on R\mathbb RR would shrink the family and is not done. The sum ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)∑k=1∣N∣​f(k−1)(x) uses the iterate f^[k] with the index shifted to k=0,…,∣N∣−1k=0,\dots,|N|-1k=0,…,∣N∣−1; "xxx is chosen such that" is an existential, and uniqueness of xxx is a separate item.
  • Trivializing encodings ruled out. The rule is defined on every competition over UUU, not on a fixed competitor set; local consistency ranges over exactly the blocks of consecutive positions (using full consistency instead would make the "if" direction false for most fff); the goal is a biconditional; the family requires continuity of fff and is not restricted to a closed form.
  • Infrastructure. The model and the axioms shared with the companion missions on interval and parametric rules are one common set of definitions; this mission adds three: local consistency, single-parametric rules, and geometric rules. Lemma 1 and the facts about inverting a continuous strictly increasing function on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any item, and of the companions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. J. Dietzenbacher and A. Y. Kondratev, Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions, arXiv:2008.08985v2, 2021; Management Science, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08985 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4520
  • R. J. Aumann and M. Maschler, Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud, Journal of Economic Theory 36, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(85)90102-4
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost IV: Low Switching Cost, Control-Band Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships are dynamic contracts in which the principal cannot observe the agent's effort, only its noisy consequences. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study such a relationship when the principal can suspend the agent and must pay a fixed switching cost to restart work. Suspension is a punishment that does not end the relationship, and it is used in practice for platform workers, contractors and franchisees. The paper shows that, when the switching cost and the revenue are low, the optimal contract has a control-band structure: the agent's promised utility is kept inside an interval, the agent is suspended when it falls below the lower end, and work resumes at the upper end. Two-threshold policies of this kind are standard in optimal switching problems with switching costs (Duckworth and Zervos, 2001; Vath and Pham, 2007), whose verification arguments the paper compares with its own.

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing the analytic core of the paper. It covers the low-switching-cost region (Area III of the paper's Figure 2).

Setting

A Poisson process of arrivals brings revenue RRR each. The base arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; if the agent works, at cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit of time, the rate becomes μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, restarting work costs K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and the agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. The constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Vˉ(w)=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wr.\beta=\frac b{\Delta\mu},\quad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}\rho,\quad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}r,\quad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}r,\quad \bar V(w)=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)w}r .β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Vˉ(w)=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)w​.

The promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0 is the state. For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with left derivative f′f'f′, the paper's operators are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_If)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾,(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu,(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​,

for the working state III and the suspended state ∅\emptyset∅. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K and VI(0),V∅(0)≥v‾V_I(0),V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0),V∅​(0)≥v​.

Two families of functions enter. In the suspended state, Vc(w)=v‾+w+c wr/ρV_c(w)=\underline v+w+c\,w^{r/\rho}Vc​(w)=v​+w+cwr/ρ (24) solves A∅V=0\mathcal A_\emptyset V=0A∅​V=0 with V(0)=v‾V(0)=\underline vV(0)=v​. In the working state, for w~<wˉ\tilde w<\bar ww~<wˉ, Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is the C1C^1C1 solution of the delay differential equation (25), in which V(w)V(w)V(w) is coupled to the look-ahead value V((w+β)∧w~)V((w+\beta)\wedge\tilde w)V((w+β)∧w~), with Vw~=Vˉ(w~)V_{\tilde w}=\bar V(\tilde w)Vw~​=Vˉ(w~) beyond w~\tilde ww~; Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is its concavification (Lemma 2), linear below a threshold wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~). Lemma 3's w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ is the unique w~\tilde ww~ with Vw~(0)=v‾\mathcal V_{\tilde w}(0)=\underline vVw~​(0)=v​ under Condition 1.

The parameter regions are Condition 1 (μ≥ρ−r\mu\ge\rho-rμ≥ρ−r or R<R^R<\hat RR<R^), Condition 2 (its negation) and Condition 3: Condition 1 and K<Kˉ1K<\bar K_1K<Kˉ1​, or Condition 2 and K<K‾K<\underline KK<K​, with R^\hat RR^ (28), Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ (K1) and K‾\underline KK​ (33) explicit thresholds.

The paper uses three different hats: Definition 1's payment threshold w^\hat ww^, Lemma 3's upright w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, and Proposition 6's bold w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^, the upper end of the control band.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7, first claim

Under Condition 3 there are parameters (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) satisfying Proposition 6 such that

VI(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑ‾Vw^(w),w≥ϑ‾,V∅(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑˉVw^(w)−K,w≥ϑˉ(46)V_I(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\underline\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w),&w\ge\underline\vartheta\end{cases},\qquad V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\bar\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w)-K,&w\ge\bar\vartheta\end{cases}\qquad(46)VI​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w),​w<ϑ​w≥ϑ​​,V∅​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w)−K,​w<ϑˉw≥ϑˉ​(46)

satisfy (20)–(22).

Proposition 6

Under Condition 3 there is (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) with c>0\mathsf c>0c>0, ϑ‾<ϑˉ<w^\underline\vartheta<\bar\vartheta<\hat{\mathbf w}ϑ​<ϑˉ<w^ and value matching and smooth pasting at both thresholds:

Vw^(ϑ‾)=Vc(ϑ‾),Vw^′(ϑ‾)=Vc′(ϑ‾),Vw^(ϑˉ)=Vc(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′(ϑˉ)=Vc′(ϑˉ)>1.\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\bar\vartheta)+K,\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\bar\vartheta)>1 .Vw^​(ϑ​)=Vc​(ϑ​),Vw^′​(ϑ​)=Vc′​(ϑ​),Vw^​(ϑˉ)=Vc​(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′​(ϑˉ)=Vc′​(ϑˉ)>1.

Milestones

Lemma EC.4 (the first step of the EC.3.9 construction), Proposition 6, and the two hardest parts of (20) at the constructed tuple: Lemma EC.12 (A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0 on [ϑˉ,w^)[\bar\vartheta,\hat{\mathbf w})[ϑˉ,w^)) and Lemma EC.13 (AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0 below ϑ‾\underline\varthetaϑ​). The other steps of the construction are posed as further statements of the mission without milestone status: Lemma EC.7 (the root of ψ=K\psi=Kψ=K under Condition 1), Lemma EC.8 and Lemma EC.11 (the Condition 2 counterparts of EC.4 and EC.7).

Significance

Proposition 7 is the analytic certificate behind the paper's Theorem 5: combined with the verification Theorem 1, it shows that the control-band contract is optimal in the low-cost region, and that the principal's value is V∅(w)−wV_\emptyset(w)-wV∅​(w)−w. Without it the third case of the paper's main Theorem 2 is unproved. The construction of Proposition 6 also gives a computable description of the band, which the paper uses for its numerical illustrations.

The results are proved in the paper's e-companion; none of them has a machine-checked proof. This mission states the analytic part as Lean targets. The delay-ODE layer (existence, uniqueness and shape of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​) is shared with the first mission of the series, and Proposition 7's proof depends on it. The stochastic contract model, the verification theorem and the optimality Theorems 1–5 are not formalized in this series.

Difficulty

Each piece of (20)–(22) is a one-variable inequality, but the functions are not explicit. Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}Vw^​ is defined through a delay equation, and the band's endpoints are defined implicitly through four nested steps: matching at θ‾\underline\thetaθ​, a range bound θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, an upper threshold θˉ(θ‾)\bar\theta(\underline\theta)θˉ(θ​) and a root of a gap function ψ\psiψ. The natural argument, convexity or concavity of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ on the suspension region, fails: on [0,ϑ‾)[0,\underline\vartheta)[0,ϑ​) the function AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ mixes VcV_{\mathsf c}Vc​ with the look-ahead value VI(w+β)V_I(w+\beta)VI​(w+β) and is not convex (p. 28), so the convexity arguments of the switching literature do not apply. The paper's proof of this single inequality occupies EC.3.12, with eight auxiliary lemmas.

Formalization scope

Functions are ℝ → ℝ and every statement quantifies over w≥0w\ge0w≥0. The standing assumptions are 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ and Assumption 1; μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are disclosed additions. Conventions:

  • f′f'f′ in AI,A∅\mathcal A_I,\mathcal A_\emptysetAI​,A∅​ is the left derivative; derivatives of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ are taken within R+\mathbb R_+R+​.
  • (20) is posed for w>0w>0w>0: at 000 the left derivative does not exist and Vc′(0+)=+∞V_{\mathsf c}'(0^+)=+\inftyVc′​(0+)=+∞.
  • Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is a solution of (25)–(26) chosen when one exists; wˇ\check wwˇ, w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​, θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ are infima or suprema of sets the paper describes; w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), C(θ‾)C(\underline\theta)C(θ​) are chosen matching pairs.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" is strict.
  • K‾\underline KK​ (33) uses the corrected bracket ((ρ−μ)/ρ)β((\rho-\mu)/\rho)\beta((ρ−μ)/ρ)β in place of the printed (r/ρ)β(r/\rho)\beta(r/ρ)β; the printed form contradicts the proof's (EC.69).
  • Proposition 6's "w^<w^\hat{\mathbf w}<\hat{\mathrm w}w^<w^" is read as w^<wˉ\hat{\mathbf w}<\bar ww^<wˉ in the Condition 2 case, where w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ does not exist; 0<ϑ‾0<\underline\vartheta0<ϑ​ is stated.
  • The goal is existential over Proposition 6 tuples. Lemmas EC.12 and EC.13 are stated at the tuple constructed in EC.3.9, in both cases of Condition 3; EC.13 is posed on (0,ϑ‾)(0,\underline\vartheta)(0,ϑ​).
  • Lemma EC.11's second limit is printed at 000; it is stated at θ‾˘\breve{\underline\theta}θ​˘​, as the proof computes it.

The tuple is never defined by the property that (46) satisfies (20)–(22); the construction definitions are Steps 1–4 of EC.3.9 only, and the goal requires all of Proposition 6's conclusions. The second claim of Proposition 7, (48) on the contract's utility, is out of scope.

A complete development needs existence, uniqueness and regularity for the linear delay equation (25) (reusable for other delay problems), implicit-function arguments for w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), and the sign analysis of EC.3.12. Proofs of single milestones, and of the delay-ODE lemmas of the series' first mission, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845
  • K. Duckworth, M. Zervos, A model for investment decisions with switching costs, Annals of Applied Probability 11(1), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/998926992
  • V. L. Vath, H. Pham, Explicit solution to an optimal switching problem in the two-regime case, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 46(2), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/050638783
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost I: Condition 1, High Switching Cost, Not-Hiring Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships let a firm pause an agent instead of firing them: a sales representative who brings in no customers for a while is suspended, a contractor is laid off for a season and recalled. Pausing is not free. Every restart carries a switching cost KKK (re-training, re-establishing a territory, setting up the work environment), so a principal who suspends too readily pays for it. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study the optimal dynamic contract for this trade-off in continuous time, building on the Poisson-arrival moral-hazard model of Sun and Tian (2018). Their main result (Theorem 2) splits the parameter space into three regimes: never hire, hire and keep the agent working forever, and a control-band contract with suspension episodes of fixed length. This mission covers the first regime under the paper's Condition 1.

Setting

A principal earns a revenue RRR per arrival of a Poisson process. Without effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; an agent who works, at private cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit time, raises it to μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, every start of work costs K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and the agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. The derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ(w)=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wr.\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\qquad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\qquad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\qquad \bar V(w)=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)w}{r}.β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ(w)=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)w​.

The state of a contract is the agent's promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0. The paper's verification theorem reduces optimality to a pair of functions: VIV_IVI​ for the working state and V∅V_\emptysetV∅​ for the suspended state. For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, with f′f'f′ its left derivative, the operators are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_If)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾,(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu,(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​,

and (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, and VI(0)≥v‾V_I(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0)≥v​, V∅(0)≥v‾V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vV∅​(0)≥v​.

The working-state candidate is built from the delay differential equation (25): for w~∈[0,wˉ)\tilde w\in[0,\bar w)w~∈[0,wˉ), Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is the C1C^1C1 function on [0,w~][0,\tilde w][0,w~] with

(μ+r)V(w)−μV((w+β)∧w~)+ρ(wˉ−w)V′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w=0,(\mu+r)V(w)-\mu V\big((w+\beta)\wedge\tilde w\big)+\rho(\bar w-w)V'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w=0,(μ+r)V(w)−μV((w+β)∧w~)+ρ(wˉ−w)V′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w=0,

and V(w)=Vˉ(w~)V(w)=\bar V(\tilde w)V(w)=Vˉ(w~) for w≥w~w\ge\tilde ww≥w~. Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ may be convex near 000; wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~) is the point up to which Vw~′′>0V_{\tilde w}''>0Vw~′′​>0, and the concavification Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ replaces Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ on [0,wˇ(w~))[0,\check w(\tilde w))[0,wˇ(w~)) by its tangent line at wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~). Condition 1 is "μ≥ρ−r\mu\ge\rho-rμ≥ρ−r or R<R^R<\hat RR<R^" with

R^=[cb+(ρ−r)μΔμ(ρ−r−μ)⋅ρ−μρ]β.\hat R=\Big[\frac cb+\frac{(\rho-r)\mu}{\Delta\mu(\rho-r-\mu)}\cdot\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\Big]\beta.R^=[bc​+Δμ(ρ−r−μ)(ρ−r)μ​⋅ρρ−μ​]β.

Under it there is a unique w^∈[0,wˉ)\hat{\mathrm w}\in[0,\bar w)w^∈[0,wˉ) with Vw^(0)=v‾\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}(0)=\underline vVw^​(0)=v​ (Lemma 3). Three hats occur in the paper: w^\hat ww^ of Definition 1 (a payment threshold), w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ of Lemma 3 (used here), and w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^ of Proposition 6 (not used here). For K<Vˉ(w^)−v‾K<\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK<Vˉ(w^)−v​, Lemma 4 gives a tangent pair (θˉK,mK)(\bar\theta^K,m^K)(θˉK,mK): the line mKw+v‾m^Kw+\underline vmKw+v​ touches Vw^−K\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}-KVw^​−K at θˉK\bar\theta^KθˉK. Finally Kˉ1=inf⁡{K∈(0,Vˉ(w^)−v‾]∣mK<1}\bar K_1=\inf\{K\in(0,\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline v]\mid m^K<1\}Kˉ1​=inf{K∈(0,Vˉ(w^)−v​]∣mK<1} (K1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 22)

Under Condition 1 and Kˉ1≤K≤Vˉ(w^)−v‾\bar K_1\le K\le\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vKˉ1​≤K≤Vˉ(w^)−v​, for the pair (θˉK,mK)(\bar\theta^K,m^K)(θˉK,mK) of (29),

VI=Vw^,V∅(w)={mKw+v‾,w≤θˉK,Vw^(w)−K,w>θˉK,V_I=\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}},\qquad V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}m^Kw+\underline v,&w\le\bar\theta^K,\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}(w)-K,&w>\bar\theta^K,\end{cases}VI​=Vw^​,V∅​(w)={mKw+v​,Vw^​(w)−K,​w≤θˉK,w>θˉK,​

satisfy (20)–(22).

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.2: existence and uniqueness of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, w~∈[0,wˉ)\tilde w\in[0,\bar w)w~∈[0,wˉ).
  2. Lemma EC.2(iii)–(iv): Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ increasing; Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ decreasing and Vw~′V_{\tilde w}'Vw~′​ increasing in w~\tilde ww~.
  3. Lemma 2(i): the sign pattern of Vw~′′V_{\tilde w}''Vw~′′​ around wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~), and wˇ(w~)≤(1−r/ρ)β\check w(\tilde w)\le(1-r/\rho)\betawˇ(w~)≤(1−r/ρ)β.
  4. Lemma 2(ii)–(iii): Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ increasing and concave; comparison in w~\tilde ww~.
  5. Lemma 3: w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ exists and is unique; Vw^′(0)>1\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}'(0)>1Vw^′​(0)>1 when wˇ(w^)>0\check w(\hat{\mathrm w})>0wˇ(w^)>0.
  6. Proposition 2: for K≥Vˉ(w^)−v‾K\ge\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK≥Vˉ(w^)−v​, (Vw^,v‾)(\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}},\underline v)(Vw^​,v​) satisfies (20)–(22).
  7. Lemma 4: tangent pairs exist; θˉK\bar\theta^KθˉK increases and mKm^KmK decreases in KKK; θˉK→wˇ(w^)\bar\theta^K\to\check w(\hat{\mathrm w})θˉK→wˇ(w^) as K↓0K\downarrow0K↓0.

Significance

Propositions 2 and 3 are the analytic certificates behind Theorem 2(i): combined with the verification theorem (Theorem 1), they show that under Condition 1 and K≥Kˉ1K\ge\bar K_1K≥Kˉ1​ the principal's utility from any incentive-compatible contract promising www is at most V∅(w)−w≤v‾V_\emptyset(w)-w\le\underline vV∅​(w)−w≤v​, so never hiring the agent is optimal, and Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ is exactly the switching-cost threshold of that regime. The same objects (Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​, the tangent pairs) reappear in the low-cost control-band regime (Propositions 6–7), so a formal development of the delay ODE and its concavification is reused there.

The paper proves all these results; none is formalized. The mission formalizes the deterministic half of the guess-and-verify argument. The stochastic contract model (point processes, promise keeping, incentive compatibility), Theorem 1 and the optimality theorems are outside its scope.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, verifying (20)–(22) by direct computation, works for the linear pieces but not for Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​, which has no closed form: (25) is a delay equation solved backwards from w~\tilde ww~ in steps of length β\betaβ, and the closed form (EC.52) of the paper holds only on the last step [(w~−β)+,w~][(\tilde w-\beta)^+,\tilde w][(w~−β)+,w~]. Every property of Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​ used in the goal (monotonicity, the single change of convexity, the comparison in w~\tilde ww~ that makes w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ unique) has to be extracted from the equation itself, across the kinks of w↦(w+β)∧w~w\mapsto(w+\beta)\wedge\tilde ww↦(w+β)∧w~. On the second branch of V∅V_\emptysetV∅​, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0 is not a pointwise identity either: it requires mK≤1m^K\le1mK≤1, which is where K≥Kˉ1K\ge\bar K_1K≥Kˉ1​ enters.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters form a structure with real fields; the standing assumptions 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ, RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c are a hypothesis of every theorem. μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are disclosed additions (a rate and a cost).
  • Functions are ℝ → ℝ; every statement quantifies over w≥0w\ge0w≥0 only. In AI,A∅\mathcal A_I,\mathcal A_\emptysetAI​,A∅​, f′f'f′ is the left derivative (derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, the paper's p. 15 convention); in statements about Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ and Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, derivatives are taken within R+\mathbb R_+R+​; in (25), within [0,w~][0,\tilde w][0,w~].
  • (20) is required for w>0w>0w>0: at w=0w=0w=0 a left derivative of a function on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ does not exist. (21) and (22) are as printed.
  • Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is a chosen solution of (25)–(26) (Lemma EC.2 is the milestone that makes this meaningful); wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~) is a supremum defined through the sign of V′′V''V′′, and w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ an infimum; Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ is an infimum. None is defined by the property a theorem asserts about it.
  • The goal holds for every pair satisfying (29); the pair is unique, and at K=Vˉ(w^)−v‾K=\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK=Vˉ(w^)−v​ it is (w^,0)(\hat{\mathrm w},0)(w^,0). The second branch of (30) is extended beyond w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, as the paper's proof uses.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" mean strictly. The contract-utility claim U(Γ‾)=v‾U(\underline\Gamma)=\underline vU(Γ​)=v​ of Proposition 2 is not stated.
  • Ruled out: weakening (20)–(22) (dropping the upper bound KKK in (21), or (22)), or defining Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ by its closed form (EC.52), which is valid only near w~\tilde ww~.

Needed infrastructure: existence and uniqueness for linear ODEs with a terminal condition, extended step by step across a delay; one-sided derivatives of piecewise functions; concavity from sign conditions on second derivatives. Proofs of the milestones, and reusable lemmas about delay equations of this form, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845 (cited from the authors' manuscript with e-companion).
  • P. Sun, F. Tian, Optimal Contract to Induce Continued Effort, Management Science 64(9), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2795
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AnalysisOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Sample-Driven Optimal Stopping: From the Secretary Problem to the i.i.d. Prophet Inequality I: Feasible Solutions of the Continuous Stopping LP Can Be Improved to Threshold FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Two classical online selection problems sit at opposite ends of an information spectrum. In the secretary problem items arrive in uniformly random order, only their relative ranks are observed, and the best possible probability of stopping on the best item tends to 1/e1/e1/e. In the i.i.d. prophet inequality the values are independent draws from a known distribution, and the best guarantee against the expected maximum is the constant ≈0.745\approx 0.745≈0.745 of Hill and Kertz (1982), shown tight by Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk and Vredeveld (2017).

Correa, Cristi, Epstein and Soto (arXiv:2011.06516) interpolate between the two with the ppp-sample-driven optimal stopping problem. Each of NNN items is sampled independently with probability ppp; the decision maker observes the relative rankings of the sampled items, then faces the remaining items online, observing relative rankings, and makes irrevocable stop/continue decisions. Stopping on the item of overall rank iii earns a reward YiY_iYi​, with Y1≥Y2≥⋯Y_1\ge Y_2\ge\cdotsY1​≥Y2​≥⋯. At p=0p=0p=0 and Y=(1,0,0,… )Y=(1,0,0,\dots)Y=(1,0,0,…) this is the secretary problem; for adversarial YYY the optimal guarantee tends to 0.7450.7450.745 as p→1p\to1p→1, the i.i.d. prophet constant.

For known YYY, the paper writes a linear program over the stopping probabilities of rank-based algorithms (after Buchbinder, Jain and Singh, 2014) and takes its limit as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞. The analysis rests on one structural result, Theorem 2: this limiting program can be restricted, without loss, to solutions of an explicit threshold form, so that the optimal algorithm stops on an item of current rank iii after a time tit_iti​. This mission is that theorem.

Setting

Fix p∈[0,1)p\in[0,1)p∈[0,1). Time runs over [p,1][p,1][p,1] (time ttt is the fraction of the NNN items seen so far; the sample accounts for the first fraction ppp in the limit), and ranks ℓ=1,2,…\ell=1,2,\dotsℓ=1,2,… refer to the relative rank of the current item among all items seen so far. A candidate solution is a function q(t,ℓ)q(t,\ell)q(t,ℓ), the density of stopping at time ttt on an item of relative rank ℓ\ellℓ.

The cumulative mass of qqq is Mq(t)=∫pt∑s≥1q(τ,s) dτM_q(t)=\int_p^t\sum_{s\ge1}q(\tau,s)\,d\tauMq​(t)=∫pt​∑s≥1​q(τ,s)dτ. A solution is feasible for the continuous linear program CLPp_pp​ when q(t,ℓ)≥0q(t,\ell)\ge0q(t,ℓ)≥0, each q(⋅,ℓ)q(\cdot,\ell)q(⋅,ℓ) is integrable on [p,1][p,1][p,1], and

t q(t,ℓ)+Mq(t)≤1∀t∈[p,1], ∀ℓ≥1.t\,q(t,\ell)+M_q(t)\le1\qquad\forall t\in[p,1],\ \forall\ell\ge1 .tq(t,ℓ)+Mq​(t)≤1∀t∈[p,1], ∀ℓ≥1.

For k≥1k\ge1k≥1 the negative-binomial term is nbk,ℓ(t)=∑j=ℓk(j−1ℓ−1)(1−t)j−ℓtℓ\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)=\sum_{j=\ell}^{k}\binom{j-1}{\ell-1}(1-t)^{j-\ell}t^{\ell}nbk,ℓ​(t)=∑j=ℓk​(ℓ−1j−1​)(1−t)j−ℓtℓ, the probability that a NegativeBinomial(ℓ,t)(\ell,t)(ℓ,t) variable is at most kkk, and

Fk(q)=∑ℓ=1k∫p1q(t,ℓ) nbk,ℓ(t) dt.F_k(q)=\sum_{\ell=1}^{k}\int_p^1 q(t,\ell)\,\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)\,dt .Fk​(q)=ℓ=1∑k​∫p1​q(t,ℓ)nbk,ℓ​(t)dt.

Fk(q)F_k(q)Fk​(q) is the limit of the probability that the algorithm stops on an item of overall rank at most kkk. The objective of CLPp_pp​ is Y1−∑k≥1(Yk−Yk+1)(1−Fk(q))Y_1-\sum_{k\ge1}(Y_k-Y_{k+1})(1-F_k(q))Y1​−∑k≥1​(Yk​−Yk+1​)(1−Fk​(q)) for a non-increasing sequence YYY, so any solution that increases every FkF_kFk​ is at least as good.

A threshold sequence is a non-decreasing (ti)i≥0⊆[p,1](t_i)_{i\ge0}\subseteq[p,1](ti​)i≥0​⊆[p,1] with t0=pt_0=pt0​=p; put Ti=∏j=1itjT_i=\prod_{j=1}^{i}t_jTi​=∏j=1i​tj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 8)

For every feasible qqq there are a feasible q∗q^*q∗ and a threshold sequence (ti)(t_i)(ti​) with Fk(q∗)≥Fk(q)F_k(q^*)\ge F_k(q)Fk​(q∗)≥Fk​(q) for all k≥1k\ge1k≥1, such that for every ℓ≥1\ell\ge1ℓ≥1 and t∈[p,1)t\in[p,1)t∈[p,1)

t q∗(t,ℓ)+∫pt∑s≥1q∗(τ,s) dτ=1  (t≥tℓ),q∗(t,ℓ)=0  (t<tℓ),(5–6)t\,q^*(t,\ell)+\int_p^t\sum_{s\ge1}q^*(\tau,s)\,d\tau=1\ \ (t\ge t_\ell),\qquad q^*(t,\ell)=0\ \ (t<t_\ell),\tag{5–6}tq∗(t,ℓ)+∫pt​s≥1∑​q∗(τ,s)dτ=1  (t≥tℓ​),q∗(t,ℓ)=0  (t<tℓ​),(5–6) q∗(t,ℓ)={Ti/ti+1t∈[ti,ti+1), ℓ≤i,0else.(7)q^*(t,\ell)=\begin{cases}T_i/t^{i+1}&t\in[t_i,t_{i+1}),\ \ell\le i,\\0&\text{else.}\end{cases}\tag{7}q∗(t,ℓ)={Ti​/ti+10​t∈[ti​,ti+1​), ℓ≤i,else.​(7)

Milestones

  1. Lemma 17 (p. 28): nbk,ℓ\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}nbk,ℓ​ is non-decreasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1] for 1≤ℓ≤k1\le\ell\le k1≤ℓ≤k.
  2. Lemma 18 (p. 29): nbk,ℓ(t)\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)nbk,ℓ​(t) is non-increasing in ℓ≥1\ell\ge1ℓ≥1 for t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1].
  3. (8) (p. 9): one mass-moving step qn−1↦qnq_{n-1}\mapsto q_nqn−1​↦qn​, which pushes each component to the right up to the envelope 1t(1−Mqn−1(t))\frac1t(1-M_{q_{n-1}}(t))t1​(1−Mqn−1​​(t)), keeps each component's mass, satisfies Mqn≤Mqn−1M_{q_n}\le M_{q_{n-1}}Mqn​​≤Mqn−1​​ in the form (8), and preserves feasibility.
  4. Fk(qn−1)≤Fk(qn)F_k(q_{n-1})\le F_k(q_n)Fk​(qn−1​)≤Fk​(qn​) (p. 9) for the same step.
  5. Uniqueness (p. 10): for fixed thresholds, (5)–(6) have at most one feasible solution on [p,1)[p,1)[p,1).
  6. Existence (p. 10): the function (7) satisfies (5)–(6).

Significance

Theorem 2 turns an infinite-dimensional linear program over functions of two variables into the reduced problem RPp_pp​, an optimization over a single non-decreasing sequence of thresholds. Every quantitative result of the paper is read off RPp_pp​: the optimal ratio for each ppp, its limit as p→1p\to1p→1 (Theorem 8, mission II of this series) and the explicit lower bound α∗p\alpha^*pα∗p (Theorem 9, mission III). It also identifies the optimal rank-based algorithms as threshold rules: accept the current item if it is among the iii best seen so far, where iii grows at the times tit_iti​.

The result is proved in the paper. It has not been formalized, and neither has any part of the continuous-LP approach to secretary and prophet problems. The formal development produces a reusable layer: continuous stopping LPs with extended-real cumulative constraints, monotonicity of negative-binomial distribution functions in both parameters, and a rearrangement argument for integrals against monotone weights.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to improve qqq greedily: push each component's mass as far right as the constraint allows. One step is easy, but the step changes the constraint itself, since the envelope 1t(1−Mq(t))\frac1t(1-M_q(t))t1​(1−Mq​(t)) depends on all components. The proof iterates, needs the thresholds tℓ(n)t_\ell(n)tℓ​(n) to be monotone in nnn, and must pass to a limit q∞q_\inftyq∞​ in L1L^1L1 with a dominating function that exists only because the smallest threshold is bounded away from 000. The limit thresholds need not be monotone in ℓ\ellℓ, and the components must then be reordered using Lemma 18. Finally, (5)–(6) are an integral equation in which each component depends on the sum of all others; identifying their unique solution with (7) needs both a uniqueness argument for a linear ODE and a telescoping computation.

Formalization scope

  • A solution is a function q : ℝ → ℕ → ℝ, a representative of an element of L1([p,1]×N)L^1([p,1]\times\mathbb N)L1([p,1]×N). Ranks, kkk, iii, jjj are 1-based; q(⋅,0)q(\cdot,0)q(⋅,0) is never used. Constraints are imposed pointwise for all ttt, as printed.
  • The cumulative mass Mq(t)M_q(t)Mq​(t) is the lower Lebesgue integral of ∑s≥1q(τ,s)\sum_{s\ge1}q(\tau,s)∑s≥1​q(τ,s) in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], never a Bochner integral of a real series, which Lean would set to 000 on divergent data.
  • Integrability of each q(⋅,ℓ)q(\cdot,\ell)q(⋅,ℓ) is part of feasibility, so FkF_kFk​ is never a junk value.
  • Equations (5)–(7) are imposed on [p,1)[p,1)[p,1), not on [p,1][p,1][p,1]. At the single point t=1t=1t=1 the printed (5) and (7) contradict each other whenever finitely many thresholds are below 111 (already for q=0q=0q=0). Feasibility of q∗q^*q∗ is required on all of [p,1][p,1][p,1].
  • The threshold intervals [ti,ti+1)[t_i,t_{i+1})[ti​,ti+1​) are half-open, as in (7); they are pairwise disjoint because (ti)(t_i)(ti​) is non-decreasing.
  • "Increasing" in Lemma 17 and "decreasing" in Lemma 18 are read as non-decreasing and non-increasing.
  • The mass-moving step (milestones 3–4) takes the thresholds tℓ(n)t_\ell(n)tℓ​(n) as hypotheses satisfying their defining equation, and requires them to be positive (this only matters at p=0p=0p=0, where the paper's equation already forces it).
  • Milestone 6 assumes t1>0t_1>0t1​>0, and claims (5) at ttt when t<tit<t_it<ti​ for some iii or when Tm/tmm→0T_m/t_m^m\to0Tm​/tmm​→0; on the page these conditions are implicit, and without them the claim fails.
  • A statement of Theorem 2 that keeps only "there is a feasible q∗q^*q∗ with Fk(q∗)≥Fk(q)F_k(q^*)\ge F_k(q)Fk​(q∗)≥Fk​(q)" is trivial (q∗=qq^*=qq∗=q); equations (5)–(7) are part of the goal and must not be dropped.
  • Mathlib supplies interval and lower Lebesgue integrals, series in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and binomial coefficients. Contributions welcome: the negative-binomial lemmas, the rearrangement inequality for monotone weights, and a Grönwall-type uniqueness argument for the integral equation.

Selected references

  • J. Correa, A. Cristi, B. Epstein, J. A. Soto, Sample-Driven Optimal Stopping: From the Secretary Problem to the i.i.d. Prophet Inequality, arXiv:2011.06516v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.06516
  • T. P. Hill, R. P. Kertz, Comparisons of stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables, Annals of Probability 10(2), 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993861
  • J. Correa, P. Foncea, R. Hoeksma, T. Oosterwijk, T. Vredeveld, Posted price mechanisms for a random stream of customers, ACM EC 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3033274.3085137
  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, M. Singh, Secretary problems via linear programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0604
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost III: Condition 2, Medium Switching Cost, Always-Work Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships pay an agent per unit of output whose arrival is random: a salesperson closing deals, a call-centre worker resolving tickets, a contractor delivering jobs. When effort is unobservable, the classical tool for keeping an agent motivated is the threat of termination after poor performance. In practice firms often use a milder punishment, suspension: the agent is sent home for a while and later called back. Restarting work is not free, and each restart costs the firm a fixed switching cost.

P. Cao, P. Sun and F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost (Management Science, 2024), characterise the optimal dynamic contract in this setting. The optimal contract depends on the size of the switching cost: when it is large the firm should not hire, when it is moderate the firm should keep the agent working forever, and when it is small the firm uses a control-band contract with suspension episodes. Their proof is "guess and verify": a stochastic verification theorem (their Theorem 1) turns any pair of functions satisfying a system of quasi-variational inequalities into an upper bound on the principal's value, and Propositions 2–7 exhibit such pairs in each parameter region.

This mission formalizes the certificate for the medium-switching-cost region under Condition 2 (Area II of the paper's Figure 2), where the agent is never suspended.

Setting

The principal faces a Poisson stream of arrivals, each worth revenue RRR. Without effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; an agent who exerts effort, at cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit time, raises it to μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's total cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, every start of work costs a switching cost K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c.

The paper's derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ,\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\quad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\quad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\quad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}{r},\quad \bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w,β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Kˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ,

together with the revenue thresholds R^\hat RR^ (28) and Rˉ\bar RRˉ (34) and the switching-cost threshold K‾\underline KK​ (33). Condition 2 is μ<ρ−r\mu<\rho-rμ<ρ−r and R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^: the agent is much more impatient than the principal and revenue is high.

The state variable is the agent's promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0. Two operators act on functions fff of www, where f′f'f′ is the left derivative:

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_I f)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾.(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu.(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​.

The first is a delay-differential operator for the working state, the second a first-order operator for the suspended state. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) when AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K and VI(0),V∅(0)≥v‾V_I(0),V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0),V∅​(0)≥v​.

The suspended-state equation A∅V=0\mathcal A_\emptyset V=0A∅​V=0 with V(0)=v‾V(0)=\underline vV(0)=v​ is solved by Vc(w)=v‾+w+c wr/ρV_c(w)=\underline v+w+c\,w^{r/\rho}Vc​(w)=v​+w+cwr/ρ (24). In the region of this mission the paper builds

V∅(w)={VcK(w),w≤wˉ,Vˉ−K,w>wˉ,VI(w)={VcK(w),w≤θ‾K,Vˉ+mK(w−wˉ),θ‾K<w≤wˉ,Vˉ,w>wˉ,V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}V_{c_K}(w),&w\le\bar w,\\ \bar V-K,&w>\bar w,\end{cases}\qquad V_I(w)=\begin{cases}V_{c_K}(w),&w\le\underline\theta_K,\\ \bar V+m_K(w-\bar w),&\underline\theta_K<w\le\bar w,\\ \bar V,&w>\bar w,\end{cases}V∅​(w)={VcK​​(w),Vˉ−K,​w≤wˉ,w>wˉ,​VI​(w)=⎩⎨⎧​VcK​​(w),Vˉ+mK​(w−wˉ),Vˉ,​w≤θ​K​,θ​K​<w≤wˉ,w>wˉ,​

from parameters (cK,mK,θ‾K)(c_K,m_K,\underline\theta_K)(cK​,mK​,θ​K​) chosen so that VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ pastes smoothly onto the line at θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ and ends at Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K at wˉ\bar wwˉ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (first claim)

Under Condition 2 and K∈[K‾,Kˉ2)K\in[\underline K,\bar K_2)K∈[K​,Kˉ2​), for every triple (cK,mK,θ‾K)(c_K,m_K,\underline\theta_K)(cK​,mK​,θ​K​) with θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ), cK>0c_K>0cK​>0, mK∈[ρ−rρ−r−μ,Vˉ−v‾wˉ)m_K\in[\frac{\rho-r}{\rho-r-\mu},\frac{\bar V-\underline v}{\bar w})mK​∈[ρ−r−μρ−r​,wˉVˉ−v​​) and

VcK(θ‾K)=Vˉ+mK(θ‾K−wˉ),VcK′(θ‾K)=mK,VcK(wˉ)=Vˉ−K,V_{c_K}(\underline\theta_K)=\bar V+m_K(\underline\theta_K-\bar w),\qquad V'_{c_K}(\underline\theta_K)=m_K,\qquad V_{c_K}(\bar w)=\bar V-K,VcK​​(θ​K​)=Vˉ+mK​(θ​K​−wˉ),VcK​′​(θ​K​)=mK​,VcK​​(wˉ)=Vˉ−K,

the functions VI,V∅V_I,V_\emptysetVI​,V∅​ above satisfy (20)–(22).

Milestones

  1. (EC.67): explicit C1(θ‾)C^1(\underline\theta)C1(θ​) and m(θ‾)m(\underline\theta)m(θ​) solve the value-matching and smooth-pasting equations at any θ‾∈(0,wˉ]\underline\theta\in(0,\bar w]θ​∈(0,wˉ].
  2. Lemma EC.3: ψ1(θ‾)=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ−C1(θ‾)wˉr/ρ\psi_1(\underline\theta)=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w-C^1(\underline\theta)\bar w^{r/\rho}ψ1​(θ​)=Vˉ−v​−wˉ−C1(θ​)wˉr/ρ is continuous and strictly decreasing on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ], so ψ1=K\psi_1=Kψ1​=K has a unique root θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ) for K∈(0,Kˉ2)K\in(0,\bar K_2)K∈(0,Kˉ2​); the root decreases in KKK and tends to wˉ\bar wwˉ as K↓0K\downarrow0K↓0.
  3. Lemma 5: for every K∈[K‾,Kˉ2)K\in[\underline K,\bar K_2)K∈[K​,Kˉ2​) the triple exists, and cKc_KcK​, mKm_KmK​, θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ are monotone in KKK.

Lemma 5 guarantees that the goal is not vacuous.

Significance

Proposition 5 is the analytic half of the paper's Theorem 4: combined with the verification theorem, it shows that in Area II the principal's optimal value is attained by a contract that pays the agent β\betaβ per arrival and never suspends. The threshold K‾\underline KK​ separates this region from the control-band region of Proposition 7, so the explicit formula for K‾\underline KK​ is the boundary of the phase diagram.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof checks a delicate sign argument near w=0w=0w=0, where VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ has infinite slope, and it checks the threshold K‾\underline KK​, whose printed formula contains an error (see Formalization scope). The paper's companion identity (41), U(Γˉ)=Vˉ−wˉ−K=V∅(wˉ)−wˉU(\bar\Gamma)=\bar V-\bar w-K=V_\emptyset(\bar w)-\bar wU(Γˉ)=Vˉ−wˉ−K=V∅​(wˉ)−wˉ, is about the utility of a contract and is not part of this mission; its deterministic half is immediate from (39).

Difficulty

The cases w∈[θ‾K,wˉ]w\in[\underline\theta_K,\bar w]w∈[θ​K​,wˉ] and w>wˉw>\bar ww>wˉ are algebraic. The difficulty is w∈(0,θ‾K)w\in(0,\underline\theta_K)w∈(0,θ​K​): there VIV_IVI​ is the curve VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​, and w+βw+\betaw+β lands beyond wˉ\bar wwˉ (Condition 2 gives β>wˉ\beta>\bar wβ>wˉ), so AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ couples the curve with the constant Vˉ\bar VVˉ. Positivity there needs more than the sign of the smooth-pasting slope: it uses the lower bound on mKm_KmK​ in (35), which is exactly where the threshold K‾\underline KK​ enters. A direct sign check at θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ alone does not cover the interval. The existence lemma requires monotonicity of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​, whose expression mixes powers θ‾r/ρ−1\underline\theta^{r/\rho-1}θ​r/ρ−1 with a linear factor.

Formalization scope

All functions are ℝ → ℝ and every quantifier ranges over w≥0w\ge0w≥0; powers are Real.rpow. The standing assumptions 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ, RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c are one hypothesis Standing; μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are read off the model and stated explicitly. The left derivative is derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, following the paper's convention on p. 15. Condition (20) is posed for w>0w>0w>0 only: at w=0w=0w=0 the right derivative of VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ is +∞+\infty+∞, so the paper's (20) there is an extended-real statement and Lean's junk derivative would make it false. (21) and (22) are posed as printed.

The threshold K‾\underline KK​ of (33) is corrected: the printed bracket contains rρβ\frac r\rho\betaρr​β, but the paper's own proof identifies K‾\underline KK​ with Kˇ2\check K_2Kˇ2​ of (EC.69), which gives ρ−μρβ\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\betaρρ−μ​β. With the printed term Lemma 5 fails (for r=0.2,ρ=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,μ=0.9,μ‾=0.1r=0.2,\rho=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,\mu=0.9,\underline\mu=0.1r=0.2,ρ=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,μ=0.9,μ​=0.1, the printed value is −0.069-0.069−0.069, the corrected one 7.25337.25337.2533). Equation (36) is printed with a free www that should read θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​. The range θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ), given by the proof, is stated.

The goal quantifies over all triples satisfying Lemma 5's conclusions; such a triple is unique, so this is the paper's claim, and Lemma 5 rules out a vacuous goal. Dropping the bound KKK in (21), the condition (22), or the lower bound on mKm_KmK​ would trivialize or change the statement.

The development needs the derivative of w↦wr/ρw\mapsto w^{r/\rho}w↦wr/ρ, sign analysis of explicit real functions, and the intermediate value theorem. The Setting file is shared with the other missions of this series and will be consolidated. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome; (EC.67) is a self-contained calculus exercise.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845 (cited from the authors' manuscript and e-companion: §4.2 pp. 24–26, EC.3.7–EC.3.8 pp. ec32–ec34).
  • Y. Sannikov, A Continuous-Time Version of the Principal-Agent Problem, Review of Economic Studies 75(3), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00486.x
  • B. Biais, T. Mariotti, J.-C. Rochet, S. Villeneuve, Large Risks, Limited Liability, and Dynamic Moral Hazard, Econometrica 78(1), 2010. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7261
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost II: Condition 2, High Switching Cost, Not-Hiring Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that outsource work to an agent whose effort they cannot observe often punish poor performance by suspending the relationship for a while, even though restarting costs money: a new set-up, re-training, re-mobilisation. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study this trade-off in a continuous-time principal–agent model with Poisson arrivals and a fixed switching cost paid every time work (re)starts. They characterise the optimal dynamic contract in three regimes: never hire the agent, hire and keep the agent working forever, or a control-band contract with suspension episodes of fixed length. The model extends the Poisson-arrival contracting framework of Sun and Tian (2018) by adding the switching cost.

The proof follows a guess-and-verify pattern. A stochastic verification theorem (Theorem 1 of the paper) turns any pair of functions satisfying a system of quasi-variational inequalities into an upper bound on the principal's value. Propositions 2–7 then supply such a pair in each parameter region. This mission covers one region: the agent is much more impatient than the principal (Condition 2) and the switching cost is high.

Setting

A principal earns revenue RRR per arrival of a Poisson process. Without the agent's effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; with effort it is μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​, and effort costs the agent b>0b>0b>0 per unit of time. While the agent works, the principal's total cost rate is c≥bc\ge bc≥b. Each time work starts or restarts, the principal pays a switching cost K>0K>0K>0. The principal discounts at rate rrr and the agent at rate ρ\rhoρ, with 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c.

The derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ.\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\qquad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\qquad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\qquad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}{r},\qquad \bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w .β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Kˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ.

The variable w≥0w\ge0w≥0 is the agent's promised utility. The revenue threshold is

R^=[cb+(ρ−r)μΔμ(ρ−r−μ)⋅ρ−μρ]β.\hat R=\Big[\frac cb+\frac{(\rho-r)\mu}{\Delta\mu(\rho-r-\mu)}\cdot\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\Big]\beta .R^=[bc​+Δμ(ρ−r−μ)(ρ−r)μ​⋅ρρ−μ​]β.

Condition 2 is: μ<ρ−r\mu<\rho-rμ<ρ−r and R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^.

For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with left derivative f′f'f′, the working-state operator and the suspension-state operator are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_I f)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾.(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu .(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​.

The first is a delay-differential operator: it evaluates fff at w+βw+\betaw+β. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if

(AIVI)(w)≥0,(A∅V∅)(w)≥0,0≤VI(w)−V∅(w)≤K,VI(0)≥v‾, V∅(0)≥v‾.(\mathcal A_IV_I)(w)\ge0,\quad(\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset)(w)\ge0,\qquad 0\le V_I(w)-V_\emptyset(w)\le K,\qquad V_I(0)\ge\underline v,\ V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline v .(AI​VI​)(w)≥0,(A∅​V∅​)(w)≥0,0≤VI​(w)−V∅​(w)≤K,VI​(0)≥v​, V∅​(0)≥v​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4

Under Condition 2, let VIV_IVI​ be the line from v‾\underline vv​ at w=0w=0w=0 to Vˉ\bar VVˉ at w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ, and let VIV_IVI​ be constant Vˉ\bar VVˉ beyond wˉ\bar wwˉ (display (31)). Then

K>Vˉ−v‾ ⟹ (VI, V∅≡v‾) satisfies (20)–(22),K>\bar V-\underline v\ \Longrightarrow\ (V_I,\ V_\emptyset\equiv\underline v)\ \text{satisfies (20)–(22)},K>Vˉ−v​ ⟹ (VI​, V∅​≡v​) satisfies (20)–(22), Kˉ2<K≤Vˉ−v‾ ⟹ (VI, V∅) satisfies (20)–(22),\bar K_2<K\le\bar V-\underline v\ \Longrightarrow\ (V_I,\ V_\emptyset)\ \text{satisfies (20)–(22)},Kˉ2​<K≤Vˉ−v​ ⟹ (VI​, V∅​) satisfies (20)–(22),

where in the second case V∅V_\emptysetV∅​ is the line from v‾\underline vv​ to Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ], constant Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K beyond (display (32)).

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.2(vi), second claim: if ρ>r+μ\rho>r+\muρ>r+μ, then Vˉ−ρ−rρ−r−μwˉ≥v‾\bar V-\frac{\rho-r}{\rho-r-\mu}\bar w\ge\underline vVˉ−ρ−r−μρ−r​wˉ≥v​ if and only if R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^.
  2. Proposition 4, first part: the case K>Vˉ−v‾K>\bar V-\underline vK>Vˉ−v​.
  3. Proposition 4, second part: the case Kˉ2<K≤Vˉ−v‾\bar K_2<K\le\bar V-\underline vKˉ2​<K≤Vˉ−v​.

Significance

Through the paper's verification theorem, Proposition 4 yields the "not hiring" half of the main Theorem 2 in the Condition 2 regime. If K≥Kˉ2K\ge\bar K_2K≥Kˉ2​, the principal's value is at most v‾\underline vv​, so it is optimal never to engage the agent (Theorem 3). The threshold Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ\bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar wKˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ is the switching cost above which the value of hiring, net of the set-up cost and of the agent's promised rent, falls below the outside value. Together with the companion missions of this series (Condition 1 with high cost, Condition 2 with medium cost, and the low-cost control-band regime), this result completes the partition of the parameter space behind Theorem 2.

The result is proved in the paper and has no machine-checked proof yet. This mission states the analytic certificate of the guess-and-verify argument, not the contract-optimality theorem. The contribution it asks for is a formal proof that these explicit functions satisfy the quasi-variational inequalities, including the left-derivative behaviour at the kink w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ and the algebra that links Condition 2 to the sign of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​.

Difficulty

The functions are piecewise linear, so the difficulty is not analytic depth but bookkeeping that is easy to get wrong:

  • The operator AI\mathcal A_IAI​ is non-local. It evaluates VIV_IVI​ at w+βw+\betaw+β, and which branch of (31) applies there depends on how wˉ\bar wwˉ compares with β\betaβ, which Condition 2 settles.
  • At the kink w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ the functions are not differentiable, so the left-derivative convention must be used explicitly.
  • The sign of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ] reduces to an inequality between Vˉ\bar VVˉ, v‾\underline vv​ and wˉ\bar wwˉ, and showing that this inequality is the revenue condition R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^ requires unfolding (8)–(10) and (28).

The naive check, that AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ vanishes or is positive because VIV_IVI​ is "close to" a solution of the delay equation, does not work: VIV_IVI​ is not a solution of (25), and the inequality is strict in general.

Formalization scope

All parameters are real numbers in one structure Params. Its predicate Standing collects the paper's standing assumptions: 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ and RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. Two of these are added to the page and disclosed: μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0, since it is an arrival rate, and b>0b>0b>0, since (31)–(32) divide by wˉ=βμ/ρ\bar w=\beta\mu/\rhowˉ=βμ/ρ.

Functions are ℝ → ℝ, and every condition is quantified over w≥0w\ge0w≥0 only. The derivative in AI\mathcal A_IAI​ and A∅\mathcal A_\emptysetA∅​ is the left derivative derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, as the paper prescribes on p. 15. Inequality (20) is required for w>0w>0w>0: on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ the left derivative at 000 does not exist. Inequalities (21) and (22) are required exactly as printed. "Satisfy the optimality condition (20)–(22)" means exactly these three conditions; the paper's Theorem 1 additionally asks for monotonicity and concavity, but Proposition 4 does not claim them and they are not added.

The threshold R^\hat RR^ is the printed formula. Its denominator ρ−r−μ\rho-r-\muρ−r−μ is positive under Condition 2, so Lean's convention x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 never applies there.

None of the conditions is weakened: (21) keeps both bounds, (22) is kept, and the operators are not pre-simplified with the closed form of Vˉ\bar VVˉ. A formal proof therefore has to carry out the sign computation itself. The stochastic contract model (Poisson point processes, promise keeping, incentive compatibility), the verification Theorem 1 and the optimality Theorems 2–3 are not formalized.

Two hat symbols elsewhere in the paper are distinct objects from those used here: w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ of Lemma 3 and the bold w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^ of Proposition 6. Neither appears in this mission. Proofs of the milestones, and proofs of the goal that use them, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845
  • P. Sun, F. Tian, Optimal Contract to Induce Continued Effort, Management Science 64(9), 4193–4217, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2795
5 thms1 active userReviewed
OptimizationProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Pricing in On-Demand and One-Way Vehicle-Sharing Networks 1: Static Prices Earn at Least K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ) of the Fluid Optimum, via Increasingly Tight Availability BoundsResearch Paper

Why static prices in vehicle sharing

In one-way car sharing, bike sharing and ride hailing, a vehicle that serves a trip from location iii to location jjj ends up at jjj. Prices therefore do two jobs: they collect revenue and they steer the fleet. The best dynamic (state-dependent) pricing policy reacts to where every vehicle is, but computing it is a Markov decision problem over a state space that grows combinatorially with the fleet. A static policy, one fixed price per origin–destination pair, is easy to compute and to post, and the question is how much it gives up.

Waserhole and Jost (2016) bounded the loss when travel times are negligible. Banerjee, Freund and Lykouris (arXiv:1803.07841, Operations Research 2022) gave guarantees for large fleets. Benjaafar and Shen (SSRN 3998297; Operations Research Technical Note, 2023, doi:10.1287/opre.2023.2446) prove a bound valid for every fleet size KKK that accounts for travel times, and then a sequence of progressively tighter bounds. This mission formalizes that chain.

Setting

There is a finite set N\mathcal NN of NNN locations and K≥1K\ge 1K≥1 vehicles. Trip requests from iii to jjj arrive at rate Λij≥0\Lambda_{ij}\ge 0Λij​≥0; the pairs with positive demand form A={(i,j):Λij>0}\mathcal A=\{(i,j):\Lambda_{ij}>0\}A={(i,j):Λij​>0}, and the network (N,A)(\mathcal N,\mathcal A)(N,A) is strongly connected. A trip from iii to jjj lasts on average 1/μij1/\mu_{ij}1/μij​. A quantile policy q=(qij)q=(q_{ij})q=(qij​), qij∈[0,1]q_{ij}\in[0,1]qij​∈[0,1], is the fraction of requests that accept the posted price; the effective rates are λij=qijΛij\lambda_{ij}=q_{ij}\Lambda_{ij}λij​=qij​Λij​ and λi=∑jλij\lambda_i=\sum_j\lambda_{ij}λi​=∑j​λij​. Each served trip earns Iij(qij)I_{ij}(q_{ij})Iij​(qij​), and q↦qIij(q)q\mapsto qI_{ij}(q)q↦qIij​(q) is concave.

The fluid problem (2) is

max⁡q Rs(q)=∑(i,j)∈AΛijqijIij(qij)s.t.∑jΛijqij=∑jΛjiqji ∀i,∑(i,j)∈AΛijqijμij≤Δ,qij∈[0,1],\max_q\ R_s(q)=\sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}I_{ij}(q_{ij})\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\sum_j\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}=\sum_j\Lambda_{ji}q_{ji}\ \forall i,\quad \sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\frac{\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}}{\mu_{ij}}\le\Delta,\quad q_{ij}\in[0,1],qmax​ Rs​(q)=(i,j)∈A∑​Λij​qij​Iij​(qij​)s.t.j∑​Λij​qij​=j∑​Λji​qji​ ∀i,(i,j)∈A∑​μij​Λij​qij​​≤Δ,qij​∈[0,1],

with Δ≥K\Delta\ge KΔ≥K. Its optimal solution qsq^sqs is the static policy; it is assumed to induce a strongly connected network. The value Rs(qs)R_s(q^s)Rs​(qs) is the fluid optimum.

Under a static policy the fleet moves through a closed queueing network: a single-server pick-up queue at each location, served at rate λi\lambda_iλi​, and an infinite-server transit queue for each pair, with mean time 1/μij1/\mu_{ij}1/μij​. The paper invokes the BCMP theorem for this network; the mission writes its stationary law as the product form. With rrr a positive solution of the traffic equations (9), ri=∑jrjλji/λjr_i=\sum_j r_j\lambda_{ji}/\lambda_jri​=∑j​rj​λji​/λj​, a state xxx (vehicle counts at locations and in transit, total KKK) has weight

w(x)=∏i(riλi)xi∏(i,j)1xij!(riλijλiμij)xij.w(x)=\prod_i\Bigl(\frac{r_i}{\lambda_i}\Bigr)^{x_i}\prod_{(i,j)}\frac{1}{x_{ij}!}\Bigl(\frac{r_i\lambda_{ij}}{\lambda_i\mu_{ij}}\Bigr)^{x_{ij}}.w(x)=i∏​(λi​ri​​)xi​(i,j)∏​xij​!1​(λi​μij​ri​λij​​)xij​.

The availability αi(K)\alpha_i(K)αi​(K) is the weight share of the states with xi≥1x_i\ge 1xi​≥1: the probability that a customer at iii finds a vehicle. The reward rate of the static policy is (3):

R(qs)=∑(i,j)∈Aαi ΛijqijsIij(qijs).R(q^s)=\sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\alpha_i\,\Lambda_{ij}q^s_{ij}I_{ij}(q^s_{ij}).R(qs)=(i,j)∈A∑​αi​Λij​qijs​Iij​(qijs​).

Finally Λ=∑AΛij\Lambda=\sum_{\mathcal A}\Lambda_{ij}Λ=∑A​Λij​, 1/μ=∑AΛij/(Λμij)1/\mu=\sum_{\mathcal A}\Lambda_{ij}/(\Lambda\mu_{ij})1/μ=∑A​Λij​/(Λμij​), and λ/μ=∑AΛijqijs/μij\lambda/\mu=\sum_{\mathcal A}\Lambda_{ij}q^s_{ij}/\mu_{ij}λ/μ=∑A​Λij​qijs​/μij​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, static half (p. 9)

With B0j(qs)=B0j=0B^j_0(q^s)=B^j_0=0B0j​(qs)=B0j​=0 and, for 1≤i≤K1\le i\le K1≤i≤K,

BiK(qs)=KN+K−1+λμ(1−Bi−1K−1(qs)),BiK=KN+K−1+Λμ(1−Bi−1K−1),B^K_i(q^s)=\frac{K}{N+K-1+\frac{\lambda}{\mu}\bigl(1-B^{K-1}_{i-1}(q^s)\bigr)},\qquad B^K_i=\frac{K}{N+K-1+\frac{\Lambda}{\mu}\bigl(1-B^{K-1}_{i-1}\bigr)},BiK​(qs)=N+K−1+μλ​(1−Bi−1K−1​(qs))K​,BiK​=N+K−1+μΛ​(1−Bi−1K−1​)K​,

the goal is: for every i=1,…,Ki=1,\dots,Ki=1,…,K,

R(qs)Rs(qs) ≥ BiK(qs) ≥ BiK ≥ KN+K−1+Λ/μ,\frac{R(q^s)}{R_s(q^s)}\ \ge\ B^K_i(q^s)\ \ge\ B^K_i\ \ge\ \frac{K}{N+K-1+\Lambda/\mu},Rs​(qs)R(qs)​ ≥ BiK​(qs) ≥ BiK​ ≥ N+K−1+Λ/μK​,

and Bi+1K>BiKB^K_{i+1}>B^K_iBi+1K​>BiK​ for i=1,…,K−1i=1,\dots,K-1i=1,…,K−1.

The paper's Theorem 2 begins with one more inequality, R(qs)/R(q∗)≥R(qs)/Rs(qs)R(q^s)/R(q^*)\ge R(q^s)/R_s(q^s)R(qs)/R(q∗)≥R(qs)/Rs​(qs), where q∗q^*q∗ is the best state-dependent policy. That inequality is Proposition 1 (p. 6). Its proof needs the stationary behaviour of the network under an arbitrary state-dependent policy with matrix-exponential trip times, together with Jensen's inequality and Little's law; that model is not formalized here. Proposition 1 is not part of this mission. The goal is the remaining chain, and it implies the paper's theorem once Proposition 1 is available.

Milestones

  1. Equal availability under balanced flows (p. 7, Appendix p. 23): αi(K)=αj(K)\alpha_i(K)=\alpha_j(K)αi​(K)=αj​(K).
  2. The ratio equals the availability (pp. 7–8): R(qs)/Rs(qs)=αR(q^s)/R_s(q^s)=\alphaR(qs)/Rs​(qs)=α.
  3. Equation (5) (p. 8): α(K)=K/(K+N−1+λμ(1−α(K−1)))\alpha(K)=K/\bigl(K+N-1+\frac{\lambda}{\mu}(1-\alpha(K-1))\bigr)α(K)=K/(K+N−1+μλ​(1−α(K−1))).
  4. Theorem 1, static half (p. 7): R(qs)/Rs(qs)≥K/(K+N−1+Λ/μ)R(q^s)/R_s(q^s)\ge K/(K+N-1+\Lambda/\mu)R(qs)/Rs​(qs)≥K/(K+N−1+Λ/μ).
  5. Equation (6) and 0≤α(K−i)≤(K−i)/(N+K−i−1)0\le\alpha(K-i)\le(K-i)/(N+K-i-1)0≤α(K−i)≤(K−i)/(N+K−i−1) (p. 9).
  6. BKK(qs)=α(K)B^K_K(q^s)=\alpha(K)BKK​(qs)=α(K) (p. 10).
  7. Bi+1K(qs)>BiK(qs)B^K_{i+1}(q^s)>B^K_i(q^s)Bi+1K​(qs)>BiK​(qs) (p. 10).

Significance

The bound K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ)K/(N+K-1+\Lambda/\mu)K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ) holds for every fleet size, tends to 111 at rate O(1/K)O(1/K)O(1/K), and reduces to the Waserhole–Jost bound when travel times vanish. The sequence BiK(qs)B^K_i(q^s)BiK​(qs) gives a computable certificate between that bound and the exact ratio BKK(qs)=α(K)B^K_K(q^s)=\alpha(K)BKK​(qs)=α(K), which an operator can evaluate from NNN, KKK and the fluid solution alone. Equation (5), a one-step recursion in the fleet size for a network mixing single-server and infinite-server stations, is the reusable core: the two sibling missions (the demand-free bound of Theorem 3 and the split-network bound of Theorem 4) rest on the same recursion.

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized elsewhere as far as a search of the platform shows. The platform has the multiclass BCMP framework and single-server closed Jackson networks, but not availability in networks with infinite-server stations, nor equation (5). This mission adds a product-form availability layer, the equal-availability lemma, the recursion (5), and the bound chain.

Difficulty

The paper derives (5) from the random observer (arrival) theorem and Little's law, and neither is available as a formal tool, so the recursion has to be obtained from the product form itself, as an identity between sums over the state spaces with KKK and K−1K-1K−1 vehicles. Equal availability needs uniqueness, up to scale, of the positive solution of the traffic equations on a strongly connected network (a Perron–Frobenius-type fact for an irreducible stochastic matrix). In the bound chain, BiK(qs)≥BiKB^K_i(q^s)\ge B^K_iBiK​(qs)≥BiK​ needs the recursion map to be monotone in both the workload and the previous value, which holds only once 0≤B≤10\le B\le 10≤B≤1 is established; strict monotonicity in iii is a double induction.

The obvious shortcut, defining α\alphaα by the recursion (5), makes Theorem 1 a one-line consequence of α(K−1)≥0\alpha(K-1)\ge 0α(K−1)≥0 and deletes the content of the first three milestones; the mission rules it out by defining α\alphaα as the product form.

Formalization scope

Locations form a Fintype with Nonempty; NNN is its cardinality. Demand, travel rates, rewards and policies are functions on all ordered pairs, self-pairs included; sums over A\mathcal AA are sums over all pairs, which agree because each summand carries Λij\Lambda_{ij}Λij​. Strong connectivity, of (N,A)(\mathcal N,\mathcal A)(N,A) and of the network induced by qsq^sqs, uses nonempty paths (Relation.TransGen), so every location has positive accepted demand and A≠∅\mathcal A\ne\emptysetA=∅. Every ordered pair has a transit queue; a pair with λij=0\lambda_{ij}=0λij​=0 has load 000 and stays empty (00=10^0=100=1). All arithmetic on KKK, NNN and iii is in R\mathbb RR; B(K,0)=0B(K,0)=0B(K,0)=0 for every K≥0K\ge 0K≥0, including the B00B^0_0B00​ that the paper's definition omits. Rs(qs)>0R_s(q^s)>0Rs​(qs)>0 is a hypothesis of the ratio statements, since otherwise the ratio is 0/00/00/0. The statements keep the paper's hypothesis that qsq^sqs is optimal for (2) with Δ≥K\Delta\ge KΔ≥K; the proofs use only feasibility and balanced flows, and the queueing milestones are stated for every balanced quantile policy inducing a strongly connected network.

The product form is a definition: the mission does not prove that it is the stationary law of the network's Markov chain (the BCMP theorem). The general closed product-form network (single-server and infinite-server stations on an arbitrary finite station set) is a separate definition and is reusable beyond this mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of (5) via normalizing constants, the traffic-equation uniqueness lemma, and the elementary bound-sequence inequalities.

Selected references

  • S. Benjaafar, X. Shen, Pricing in On-Demand (and One-Way) Vehicle Sharing Networks, SSRN abstract 3998297, version of 2023-01-10. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3998297 ; Technical Note, Operations Research, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2023.2446
  • F. Baskett, K. M. Chandy, R. R. Muntz, F. G. Palacios, Open, Closed, and Mixed Networks of Queues with Different Classes of Customers, J. ACM 22(2), 1975. https://doi.org/10.1145/321879.321887
  • S. Banerjee, D. Freund, T. Lykouris, Pricing and Optimization in Shared Vehicle Systems: An Approximation Framework, Operations Research 70(3), 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.07841
  • A. Waserhole, V. Jost, Pricing in Vehicle Sharing Systems: Optimization in Queuing Networks with Product Forms, EURO J. Transportation and Logistics 5, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13676-014-0054-4
  • D. K. George, C. H. Xia, Fleet-Sizing and Service Availability for a Vehicle Rental System via Closed Queueing Networks, European J. Operational Research 211(1), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2010.12.015
  • M. Reiser, S. S. Lavenberg, Mean-Value Analysis of Closed Multichain Queuing Networks, J. ACM 27(2), 1980. https://doi.org/10.1145/322186.322195
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OptimizationProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Pricing in On-Demand and One-Way Vehicle-Sharing Networks 2: With Workload Budget K, Static Prices Earn a Demand-Independent 1 − O(1/√K) Fraction of the Fluid OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

One-way vehicle-sharing systems (car sharing, bike sharing, ride-hailing fleets) set a price for every origin–destination trip. Prices decide which trips are taken, and so they decide where vehicles end up. Pricing that depends on the current position of every vehicle is in principle optimal, but its state space grows combinatorially with the fleet. Practitioners therefore use static prices, which depend only on the origin and destination. The question is how much revenue, throughput or welfare such prices give up.

Benjaafar and Shen (SSRN 3998297; Technical Note, Operations Research, 2023, doi:10.1287/opre.2023.2446) answer this with explicit lower bounds on the performance ratio of the static policy obtained from a fluid relaxation. Banerjee, Freund and Lykouris (arXiv:1611.07624) proved the earlier guarantee, which requires the fleet size KKK to be at least 100100100 and the workload to be at most K−2Kln⁡KK-2\sqrt{K\ln K}K−2KlnK​. Benjaafar and Shen give two bounds that hold for every KKK. The first is K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ)K/(N+K-1+\Lambda/\mu)K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ) (their Theorems 1–2), and it degrades when total demand Λ\LambdaΛ grows with KKK. The second, Theorem 3, does not depend on demand or travel times at all. This mission is about Theorem 3.

Setting

There is a finite set N\mathcal NN of NNN locations and KKK vehicles. Trip requests from iii to jjj arrive as a Poisson process of rate Λij≥0\Lambda_{ij}\ge0Λij​≥0, and A={(i,j):Λij>0}\mathcal A=\{(i,j):\Lambda_{ij}>0\}A={(i,j):Λij​>0} is the set of pairs with demand. The graph (N,A)(\mathcal N,\mathcal A)(N,A) is strongly connected. A trip from iii to jjj lasts a random time with mean 1/μij1/\mu_{ij}1/μij​. A static policy is a matrix q=(qij)q=(q_{ij})q=(qij​) of quantiles: qij∈[0,1]q_{ij}\in[0,1]qij​∈[0,1] is the fraction of (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) customers who accept the posted price. Each accepted trip earns a reward Iij(qij)I_{ij}(q_{ij})Iij​(qij​), and q↦q Iij(q)q\mapsto q\,I_{ij}(q)q↦qIij​(q) is concave. A customer who finds no vehicle at the origin is lost.

Problem (2) is the fluid relaxation, in which vehicles are always available:

max⁡q Rs(q)=∑(i,j)∈AΛijqijIij(qij)s.t.∑jΛijqij=∑jΛjiqji,∑(i,j)∈AΛijqijμij≤Δ,qij∈[0,1].\max_q\ R_s(q)=\sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}I_{ij}(q_{ij}) \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_j\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}=\sum_j\Lambda_{ji}q_{ji},\quad \sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\frac{\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}}{\mu_{ij}}\le\Delta,\quad q_{ij}\in[0,1].qmax​ Rs​(q)=(i,j)∈A∑​Λij​qij​Iij​(qij​)s.t.j∑​Λij​qij​=j∑​Λji​qji​,(i,j)∈A∑​μij​Λij​qij​​≤Δ,qij​∈[0,1].

The first constraint balances the flows, and the second caps the workload λ/μ=∑Λijqij/μij\lambda/\mu=\sum\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}/\mu_{ij}λ/μ=∑Λij​qij​/μij​ (the mean number of vehicles in transit) by a budget Δ\DeltaΔ. Let qsq^sqs be an optimal solution that induces a strongly connected network.

Under a static policy the vehicles move in a closed queueing network. Each location has a single-server pick-up queue with service rate λi=∑jΛijqij\lambda_i=\sum_j\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}λi​=∑j​Λij​qij​. Each pair has an infinite-server transit queue with mean service time 1/μij1/\mu_{ij}1/μij​. This network is of BCMP type, so its stationary law has product form. With rrr a positive solution of the traffic equations (9), a state with xix_ixi​ vehicles at location iii and xijx_{ij}xij​ in transit from iii to jjj has weight ∏i(ri/λi)xi∏(i,j)(riλij/(λiμij))xij/xij!\prod_i(r_i/\lambda_i)^{x_i}\prod_{(i,j)}(r_i\lambda_{ij}/(\lambda_i\mu_{ij}))^{x_{ij}}/x_{ij}!∏i​(ri​/λi​)xi​∏(i,j)​(ri​λij​/(λi​μij​))xij​/xij​!. The availability αi(K)\alpha_i(K)αi​(K) is the stationary probability that location iii holds at least one vehicle. The reward rate of the policy is Equation (3):

R(q)=∑(i,j)∈Aαi ΛijqijIij(qij).R(q)=\sum_{(i,j)\in\mathcal A}\alpha_i\,\Lambda_{ij}q_{ij}I_{ij}(q_{ij}).R(q)=(i,j)∈A∑​αi​Λij​qij​Iij​(qij​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3, static half

For K≥1K\ge1K≥1, Δ=K\Delta=KΔ=K, qsq^sqs optimal for (2), inducing a strongly connected network, with Rs(qs)>0R_s(q^s)>0Rs​(qs)>0:

R(qs)Rs(qs) ≥ 1−((N−12K+12(N+K)+1)2−1−(N−12K+12(N+K))).\frac{R(q^s)}{R_s(q^s)}\ \ge\ 1-\left(\sqrt{\Bigl(\tfrac{N-1}{2K}+\tfrac{1}{2(N+K)}+1\Bigr)^2-1}-\Bigl(\tfrac{N-1}{2K}+\tfrac{1}{2(N+K)}\Bigr)\right).Rs​(qs)R(qs)​ ≥ 1−((2KN−1​+2(N+K)1​+1)2−1​−(2KN−1​+2(N+K)1​)).

The paper states the bound for R(qs)/R(q∗)R(q^s)/R(q^*)R(qs)/R(q∗), where q∗q^*q∗ is the optimal dynamic policy. It passes from one ratio to the other with Proposition 1, R(q∗)≤Rs(qs)R(q^*)\le R_s(q^s)R(q∗)≤Rs​(qs) (p. 6), whose proof needs the stationary analysis of arbitrary state-dependent policies. Proposition 1 is not part of this mission. The goal implies the paper's Theorem 3 once Proposition 1 is available.

Milestones

  1. Equal availability (pp. 7, 23): under balanced flows, αi(K)=αj(K)\alpha_i(K)=\alpha_j(K)αi​(K)=αj​(K) for all i,ji,ji,j.
  2. R(qs)/Rs(qs)=αR(q^s)/R_s(q^s)=\alphaR(qs)/Rs​(qs)=α (pp. 7–8).
  3. Equation (5) (p. 8): α(K)=K/(K+N−1+(λ/μ)(1−α(K−1)))\alpha(K)=K/\bigl(K+N-1+(\lambda/\mu)(1-\alpha(K-1))\bigr)α(K)=K/(K+N−1+(λ/μ)(1−α(K−1))).
  4. β(K)=K/(N+K−1+Δ(1−β(K−1)))\beta(K)=K/(N+K-1+\Delta(1-\beta(K-1)))β(K)=K/(N+K−1+Δ(1−β(K−1))), β(0)=0\beta(0)=0β(0)=0, is non-decreasing and concave (p. 10).
  5. α(K)≥β(K)\alpha(K)\ge\beta(K)α(K)≥β(K) for K≥1K\ge1K≥1 when λ/μ≤Δ\lambda/\mu\le\Deltaλ/μ≤Δ (p. 11).
  6. β(K)−β(K−1)≤β(1)=1/(N+Δ)\beta(K)-\beta(K-1)\le\beta(1)=1/(N+\Delta)β(K)−β(K−1)≤β(1)=1/(N+Δ) (p. 11).
  7. β(K)≥(bK−bK2−4KΔ)/(2Δ)\beta(K)\ge\bigl(b_K-\sqrt{b_K^2-4K\Delta}\bigr)/(2\Delta)β(K)≥(bK​−bK2​−4KΔ​)/(2Δ) with bK=N+K−1+Δ+Δ/(N+Δ)b_K=N+K-1+\Delta+\Delta/(N+\Delta)bK​=N+K−1+Δ+Δ/(N+Δ) (p. 11).

Significance

The bound tends to 111 at rate 1−O(1/K)1-O(1/\sqrt K)1−O(1/K​), uniformly in demand rates, travel times and the reward functions. It is the regime-free counterpart of the K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ)K/(N+K-1+\Lambda/\mu)K/(N+K−1+Λ/μ) bound: that bound is better for light demand, this one for heavy demand (Remark 7). Remark 6 reports that it is also numerically tighter than the guarantee of Banerjee et al., and unlike that guarantee it applies to every fleet size.

Formalizing it adds several things to the platform. The first is availability in closed networks of single-server and infinite-server stations, defined from the product form. Two classical facts about this model follow: availability is equal across locations under balanced flows, and it satisfies the mean-value recursion (5). Milestone 4 is a concavity statement about the throughput of a closed network in its population, and for N=1N=1N=1 it contains the concavity of the Erlang-B carried load in the number of servers. The paper does not prove it; it cites George and Xia (2011) and Shanthikumar and Yao (1988). None of these results is formalized anywhere that this mission is aware of, so the mission formalizes a proved result, not an open problem.

Difficulty

The algebra at the end (milestones 6–7 and the substitution Δ=K\Delta=KΔ=K) is elementary. Two steps are not.

Equation (5) is stated as a relation between availabilities, but its content is an identity between normalizing constants G(K−1)/G(K)G(K-1)/G(K)G(K−1)/G(K) of the product form. The paper derives it from the arrival theorem and Little's law, and neither is available. A direct proof has to compute G(K)G(K)G(K) under balanced flows, which takes a counting argument over the state space. Equal availability likewise needs the positive solution of (9) to be unique up to scale on a strongly connected network.

Concavity of β\betaβ is the hard milestone. A natural first attempt is induction on the recursion: if β(K)−β(K−1)\beta(K)-\beta(K-1)β(K)−β(K−1) is non-increasing up to KKK, show that the next increment is no larger. The map β(K−1)↦β(K)\beta(K-1)\mapsto\beta(K)β(K−1)↦β(K) is increasing and convex in its argument, and convexity points the wrong way, so increments do not propagate directly. The published proofs go through the closed-network interpretation, not through the recursion.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in VehicleSharePricing.DemandFree. Locations are a Fintype with Nonempty, and NNN is its cardinality. Λ, μ, q are real matrices on all pairs, and entries outside A\mathcal AA enter only multiplied by Λij=0\Lambda_{ij}=0Λij​=0. Strong connectivity is the transitive closure of the positive-flow relation (Relation.TransGen). This guarantees λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0 at every location, even for N=1N=1N=1. Availability is the product-form busy probability of the general definition ProductFormNetwork, applied to the induced network. That law is a definition that records the paper's appeal to BCMP (p. 6), not a theorem of this mission. Theorems quantify over every positive solution rrr of (9). R(q)R(q)R(q) is Equation (3) with per-location availabilities. The sequence β\betaβ is defined by its recursion, which is correct because it is a proof device, not the availability of qsq^sqs. All arithmetic is in R\mathbb RR, and K−1K-1K−1 appears only under K≥1K\ge1K≥1.

Two trivializations are ruled out. Defining α\alphaα by the recursion (5) would make milestones 1–3 empty, and defining R(q)R(q)R(q) as αRs(q)\alpha R_s(q)αRs​(q) would make milestone 1 empty. The hypothesis Rs(qs)>0R_s(q^s)>0Rs​(qs)>0 is added because the ratio is otherwise 0/00/00/0.

The proof of the goal uses only feasibility of qsq^sqs and the strong connectivity of the induced network; optimality is kept because it is the paper's hypothesis. Contributions are welcome on any milestone. A library for normalizing constants of closed product-form networks, and the concavity of throughput in the population, would be reusable well beyond this paper.

Selected references

  • S. Benjaafar, X. Shen, Pricing in On-Demand (and One-Way) Vehicle Sharing Networks, SSRN abstract 3998297, version of 2023-01-10; Technical Note, Operations Research, 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3998297, https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2023.2446
  • S. Banerjee, D. Freund, T. Lykouris, Pricing and Optimization in Shared Vehicle Systems: An Approximation Framework, Operations Research, 2022 (cited by the paper as forthcoming); arXiv:1611.07624. https://arxiv.org/abs/1611.07624
  • F. Baskett, K. M. Chandy, R. R. Muntz, F. G. Palacios, Open, Closed, and Mixed Networks of Queues with Different Classes of Customers, Journal of the ACM 22(2), 1975. https://doi.org/10.1145/321879.321887
  • D. K. George, C. H. Xia, Fleet-Sizing and Service Availability for a Vehicle Rental System via Closed Queueing Networks, European Journal of Operational Research 211(1), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2010.12.015
  • J. G. Shanthikumar, D. D. Yao, Second-Order Properties of the Throughput of a Closed Queueing Network, Mathematics of Operations Research 13(3), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.13.3.524
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamical SystemsEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces I: The Marketplace Is Stable Exactly When M ≤ w* Under Tight Labor Supply (p* ≤ w*) and M ≤ H(R(p*)) Under Loose SupplyResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimum hourly earnings rules for ride-hailing drivers are meant to protect income during periods when drivers spend part of their time idle. A platform pays a wage per hour carrying riders, yet drivers care about earnings per hour logged onto the platform. When many drivers enter after a wage increase, utilization can fall and offset the increase. A regulation that uses the preceding period's utilization to set the next wage can therefore create feedback in the marketplace. Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin model this feedback and identify the exact minimum earnings targets compatible with bounded wages and continuing service (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, §§3–4).

The question matters to marketplace design because a target that cannot be sustained within the model cannot be reached through a bounded wage policy, even if the platform changes prices over time. The theorem separates two economic regimes. When labor supply is tight, the decisive number is the price where demand equals supply. When supply is loose, the decisive number is the greatest revenue the platform can obtain from riders, converted into affordable driver earnings. This mission concerns the paper's threshold theorem and the four lemmas that state its main analytic ingredients.

Setting

In each discrete period ttt, a platform chooses a rider price pt≥0p_t\ge0pt​≥0 and a wage per ride hour wt≥0w_t\ge0wt​≥0. At price ppp, riders demand D(p)D(p)D(p) hours of trips. At expected hourly earnings zzz, drivers supply S(z)S(z)S(z) hours. The quantity of completed rides and driver utilization are

Q(p,z)=min⁡{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=Q(p,z)S(z).Q(p,z)=\min\{D(p),S(z)\},\qquad u(p,z)=\frac{Q(p,z)}{S(z)}.Q(p,z)=min{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=S(z)Q(p,z)​.

Drivers earn wages only while carrying riders. Thus an earnings equilibrium is a positive sequence ztz_tzt​ satisfying zt=wtu(pt,zt)z_t=w_tu(p_t,z_t)zt​=wt​u(pt​,zt​) in every period. The platform's period profit is π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z)\pi(p,w,z)=(p-w)Q(p,z)π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z). A minimum earnings target M>0M>0M>0 requires

wt+1≥Mu(pt,zt).w_{t+1}\ge\frac{M}{u(p_t,z_t)}.wt+1​≥u(pt​,zt​)M​.

The rule uses utilization in one period to set a wage floor in the next. A policy is stable if its prices and wages are feasible, it satisfies equilibrium and the wage rule, wages have a finite upper bound across all periods, and profit is nonnegative in all but finitely many periods. This definition permits a finite transition with losses but excludes a wage sequence that grows without bound (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, p. 8, Definitions 1–2 and (5)).

The revenue function is R(p)=pD(p)R(p)=pD(p)R(p)=pD(p), and the labor cost function is C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z). Write HHH for the inverse of CCC on positive expenditure. The paper assumes that DDD is positive, continuous, and strictly decreasing; SSS is strictly increasing, differentiable, and positive except possibly at zero; RRR has a unique peak at p∗p^*p∗; and demand and supply cross at w∗w^*w∗, so D(w∗)=S(w∗)D(w^*)=S(w^*)D(w∗)=S(w∗) (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, p. 8, Regularity assumptions).

Each theorem in this mission retains these standing assumptions, including when a particular result uses only some of them.

Formalization targets

Exact stability threshold

The goal is Theorem 1 of the paper. For every M>0M>0M>0, stability is characterized by

Stable⁡(D,S,M)⟺M≤z∗,z∗={w∗,p∗≤w∗,H(R(p∗)),p∗>w∗.\operatorname{Stable}(D,S,M)\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad M\le z^*,\qquad z^*=\begin{cases}w^*,&p^*\le w^*,\\H(R(p^*)),&p^*>w^*.\end{cases}Stable(D,S,M)⟺M≤z∗,z∗={w∗,H(R(p∗)),​p∗≤w∗,p∗>w∗.​

The equality case p∗=w∗p^*=w^*p∗=w∗ belongs to the first branch. The theorem gives an if and only if statement about all feasible sequences of prices and wages, rather than a condition for one chosen stationary policy (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, p. 11, Theorem 1 and (7)).

Supporting results

The milestones reproduce Lemmas 1–4 and two claims in the Online Appendix. Lemma 1 establishes the inverse labor cost's existence, regularity, and monotonicity. Lemma 2 identifies continuous, unique equilibrium earnings for a given price and positive wage. Lemma 3 states that stability admits a policy with price equal to wage. Lemma 4 rewrites the wage rule in that regime. The appendix claims compare the loose-supply threshold with w∗w^*w∗ and show that the tight-supply wage-growth factor exceeds one above w∗w^*w∗ (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, pp. 9–10 and Online Appendix p. 4).

Significance

The theorem identifies the full stable range of targets in this model. In the tight-supply case, raising the target above the demand–supply crossing cannot be stabilized by choosing a different sequence of prices. In the loose-supply case, the highest stable target is tied to the cost of supplying drivers at the platform's peak potential revenue. The distinction explains why the same regulation can have different limits across markets with different demand and supply curves (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, p. 11 and Figure 2).

The paper proves this result mathematically. The remaining formalization task is to represent its sequence model and analytic assumptions in Lean and prove the threshold statement and its supporting lemmas there. Its inverse-cost, equilibrium, and policy-stability interfaces can also be reused for the companion results on utilization shocks and static stability in the same paper. Those companion theorems are separate missions in this series.

Difficulty

The short threshold formula hides two distinct obligations: a policy must satisfy the earnings equilibrium and lagged wage rule at every period, while the impossibility direction must exclude every stable feasible policy, including policies that vary prices over time. The equilibrium earnings formula changes regime when supply at the posted wage crosses demand. At the boundary the two formulas must agree, and the argument must still handle wages that approach or cross the demand–supply point. Boundedness and profit conditions also interact with a finite initial period in which profit may be negative.

The paper's printed explanation for one strict inequality in the tight-supply converse is insufficient: two decreasing factors do not determine the direction of their product. The formal target keeps the inequality the paper uses, while the appendix quotation remains as printed (Asadpour, Lobel, and van Ryzin, 2022, Online Appendix p. 4).

Formalization scope

Prices, wages, earnings, demand, supply, cost, and revenue are real valued. The curves' regularity is imposed on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); differentiability of supply is imposed on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) together with continuity at zero. Revenue is strictly increasing up to p∗p^*p∗ and strictly decreasing afterward, encoding the unique peak. The crossing w∗w^*w∗ and inverse HHH are parameters with their characterizing properties, so the statements hold for their uniquely determined values. The inverse is only used at positive costs.

Lean indexes the first period by 000, so its rule applies to wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and places no floor on w0w_0w0​. The paper starts at period 111 and likewise leaves the first wage free. “Bounded wages” means a single real upper bound for every period; “all but finitely many periods” is represented by an eventually true condition on N\mathbb NN.

An equilibrium requires zt>0z_t>0zt​>0. This explicit domain condition prevents a zero-supply input from making u=0/0u=0/0u=0/0 and then M/u=0M/u=0M/u=0 under Lean's total real division, which would make the regulation vacuous. Lemma 2 correspondingly uses w>0w>0w>0. Its branch condition S(w)<D(p)S(w)<D(p)S(w)<D(p) agrees with the paper's w<S−1(D(p))w<S^{-1}(D(p))w<S−1(D(p)) wherever that inverse exists and remains meaningful when demand is outside the range of supply. These domain choices are stated with the items they affect. A complete development needs real-analysis facts about continuous strictly monotone functions and inverses, eventual properties of sequences, and elementary bounds on the utilization ratio. Contributions establishing these interfaces or the stated milestones are within scope.

Selected references

  • Arash Asadpour, Ilan Lobel, and Garrett van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, SSRN preprint 3502607, version of August 24, 2022; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022. SSRN preprint. The local formalization uses the dated preprint's page and theorem numbering.
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Linear OptimizationMarkov ChainProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret I: Under General Position the Exhaustive Resolving Policy Has Regret at Most Γ/ϵ at All TimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Centralized matching markets (kidney exchange, ride hailing, freight and labor platforms) repeatedly decide which waiting participants to match now and which to hold for a better opportunity later. Matching early collects value sooner; waiting lets the platform see more arrivals and avoid matches that later turn out to be wasteful. A natural yardstick is the best set of matches that could have been made with hindsight from all arrivals up to a given time, and the question is how far an online policy, which cannot see the future, must fall behind that yardstick.

Kerimov, Ashlagi and Gurvich (SSRN 3824407, September 2022; Management Science 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215) answer this for multi-way matching networks with patient agents. They identify a single parameter of the fluid relaxation, the general position gap ϵ\epsilonϵ, and show that the regret against the hindsight benchmark can be kept at order ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 at all times, and that no policy does better in order on non-trivial networks. This mission formalizes the upper bound. The paper places itself next to constant-regret results for online packing (Bumpensanti and Wang 2020; Vera and Banerjee 2021), where resolving a linear program at each arrival achieves bounded regret.

Setting

There are nnn agent types and ddd matches. Match mmm is a set A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) of at least two types, every type belongs to some match, and the matching matrix M∈{0,1}n×dM\in\{0,1\}^{n\times d}M∈{0,1}n×d has Mim=1M_{im}=1Mim​=1 iff i∈A(m)i\in\mathcal A(m)i∈A(m). Performing match mmm uses one agent of each type in A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) and earns rm>0r_m>0rm​>0. Time is discrete; at each time t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,… one agent arrives, of type iii with probability λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda_i=1∑i​λi​=1, independently over time. AitA^t_iAit​ counts the type-iii arrivals by time ttt.

A matching policy records DmtD^t_mDmt​, the number of times match mmm has been performed by time ttt. It is admissible when it is non-anticipative and only matches agents present: MDt≤AtMD^t\le A^tMDt≤At. The pre-match queue is Qt=At−MDt−1Q^t=A^t-MD^{t-1}Qt=At−MDt−1, the value collected is RD,t=E[r⋅Dt]\mathcal R^{D,t}=\mathbb E[r\cdot D^t]RD,t=E[r⋅Dt], and the hindsight benchmark is

R∗,t=E[max⁡{r⋅y:My≤At, y∈Z≥0d}].\mathcal R^{*,t}=\mathbb E\big[\max\{r\cdot y: My\le A^t,\ y\in\mathbb Z^d_{\ge0}\}\big].R∗,t=E[max{r⋅y:My≤At, y∈Z≥0d​}].

The static-planning problem is the linear program

(SPP)max⁡ r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=λ, z≥0, s≥0.\text{(SPP)}\qquad \max\ r\cdot z\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Mz+s=\lambda,\ z\ge0,\ s\ge0.(SPP)max r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=λ, z≥0, s≥0.

For an optimal (z∗,s∗)(z^*,s^*)(z∗,s∗) let M+={m:zm∗>0}\mathcal M_+=\{m:z^*_m>0\}M+​={m:zm∗​>0} (active matches), M0\mathcal M_0M0​ the rest (redundant matches), Q+={j:sj∗>0}\mathcal Q_+=\{j:s^*_j>0\}Q+​={j:sj∗​>0} (under-demanded types) and Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​ the rest (over-demanded types). The network satisfies general position (GP) if (SPP) has a unique optimal solution and it is non-degenerate, ∣M+∣+∣Q+∣=n|\mathcal M_+|+|\mathcal Q_+|=n∣M+​∣+∣Q+​∣=n. The general position gap is the smallest positive basic value,

ϵ=min⁡m∈M+zm∗ ∧ min⁡j∈Q+sj∗.\epsilon=\min_{m\in\mathcal M_+}z^*_m\ \wedge\ \min_{j\in\mathcal Q_+}s^*_j .ϵ=m∈M+​min​zm∗​ ∧ j∈Q+​min​sj∗​.

The exhaustive resolving policy with inter-action delay τ\tauτ acts only at the epochs tk=kτt_k=k\tautk​=kτ. There it performs an optimal solution of the integer program max⁡{r⋅z:Mz≤Qtk, z∈Z≥0d}\max\{r\cdot z: Mz\le Q^{t_k},\ z\in\mathbb Z^d_{\ge0}\}max{r⋅z:Mz≤Qtk​, z∈Z≥0d​} with the redundant matches removed, and then discards the leftover agents of the under-demanded types.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (Upper bound), p. 14

There are constants κ,Γ>0\kappa,\Gamma>0κ,Γ>0 depending only on n,d,M,rn,d,M,rn,d,M,r such that, under GP, the exhaustive resolving policy with τ=⌈κϵ−1⌉\tau=\lceil\kappa\epsilon^{-1}\rceilτ=⌈κϵ−1⌉ (any tie-breaking) is admissible and

R∗,t−RD,t≤Γ ϵ−1for all t≥1.\mathcal R^{*,t}-\mathcal R^{D,t}\le\Gamma\,\epsilon^{-1}\qquad\text{for all }t\ge1 .R∗,t−RD,t≤Γϵ−1for all t≥1.

The constants are not fixed, so the goal survives any improvement of them.

Milestones

  1. §2, p. 8: R∗,t=max⁡DRD,t\mathcal R^{*,t}=\max_{D}\mathcal R^{D,t}R∗,t=maxD​RD,t, attained by the ultimate batching policy.
  2. §4.2, (4), p. 20: under GP the optimal basis B\mathcal BB is invertible, (zM+∗,sQ+∗)=B−1λ(z^*_{\mathcal M_+},s^*_{\mathcal Q_+})=\mathcal B^{-1}\lambda(zM+​∗​,sQ+​∗​)=B−1λ, and the entries of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1 are bounded by a constant of the topology.
  3. §4.2, p. 20: θ=∑m∈M+rmym\theta=\sum_{m\in\mathcal M_+}r_my^mθ=∑m∈M+​​rm​ym is the optimal dual of (SPP), θ≥0\theta\ge0θ≥0, and θi>0\theta_i>0θi​>0 on Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​.
  4. Lemma 4.1, p. 19 (optimality test): a policy without redundant matches whose over-demanded queues have mean O(ϵ−1)O(\epsilon^{-1})O(ϵ−1) has regret O(ϵ−1)O(\epsilon^{-1})O(ϵ−1).
  5. Lemma 4.2, p. 21: a Foster–Lyapunov drift condition bounds stationary means (Glynn and Zeevi 2008).
  6. (11), p. 23: Eπ[h∗(Q0)]=O(ϵ−1)\mathbb E_\pi[h^*(Q^0)]=O(\epsilon^{-1})Eπ​[h∗(Q0)]=O(ϵ−1) for the stationary law of the epoch chain.
  7. App. D, p. 49: E0[h∗(Qtk)]=O(ϵ−1)\mathbb E_{\mathbf 0}[h^*(Q^{t_k})]=O(\epsilon^{-1})E0​[h∗(Qtk​)]=O(ϵ−1) for all k≥1k\ge1k≥1.

Here h∗(u)h^*(u)h∗(u) is the θ\thetaθ-weighted leftover in Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​ after an optimal integer matching of uuu (display (7)).

Significance

The upper bound says that, under GP, hindsight-optimal performance up to an additive constant is achievable at every time simultaneously, not just at a known horizon. Long-run average optimality and near-optimality under discounting follow (Remark 2.1). The bound also quantifies the cost of acting often: the delay τ\tauτ and the regret both scale with ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1, so networks close to degeneracy force batching. Combined with the paper's lower bound, ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 is the right order on non-trivial networks.

The result has a printed proof (§4, Appendices B and D) but no machine-checked one. Several intermediate statements of the printed proof do not hold as stated and are not posed here. The goal and the stated displays (11) and App. D are posed as the paper states them, so a formal proof requires a correct argument for the uniform-in-λ\lambdaλ bound on the over-demanded queues. Lemma 4.1, the basis and duality facts and Lemma 4.2 are self-contained and checkable on their own.

Difficulty

The obvious approach compares the policy's realized matches with the fluid optimum t z∗t\,z^*tz∗ and controls the deviation with concentration bounds. That gives errors of order t\sqrt tt​, not a constant. The constant comes from showing that the over-demanded queues stay of order ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1 uniformly in time and in λ\lambdaλ. Between epochs these queues behave like a multidimensional reflected random walk whose drift toward zero is only of order ϵτ\epsilon\tauϵτ, while its fluctuations over an epoch are of order τ\sqrt\tauτ​. The delay τ≍ϵ−1\tau\asymp\epsilon^{-1}τ≍ϵ−1 balances the two, but the queue state enters through the integer program (3), whose solution changes discontinuously with the queues, and the quantities that measure the drift are signed combinations of arrival counts, to which the usual one-sided concentration bounds for nonnegative sums do not apply. On top of this every constant must be independent of λ\lambdaλ.

Formalization scope

  • Types are Fin n and matches Fin d (0-based); the topology with its two standing assumptions (∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)|\ge2∣A(m)∣≥2, every type in a match) is a structure, and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 with ∑λi=1\sum\lambda_i=1∑λi​=1 and r>0r>0r>0 are hypotheses.
  • Time is N\mathbb NN; "for all t>0t>0t>0" is t≥1t\ge1t≥1. The arrival at time s+1s+1s+1 is the sss-th entry of a path ω:N→\omega:\mathbb N\toω:N→ Fin n. Expectations at horizon ttt are finite sums over the first ttt arrivals weighted by ∏λωs\prod\lambda_{\omega_s}∏λωs​​, so no expectation is a default value.
  • Admissible policies are non-anticipative cumulative counts with MDt≤AtMD^t\le A^tMDt≤At and no rejections. The resolving policy's removal of under-demanded leftovers acts on its own virtual queue, which agrees with the actual queue on Q0\mathcal Q_0Q0​; its matches are feasible without removals, so it is admissible.
  • (3) is solved with the redundant matches set to zero, and statements quantify over every tie-breaking selection. A selection exists (a sanity file exhibits one), so these statements are not vacuous.
  • GP is a hypothesis on an explicit pair (z∗,s∗)(z^*,s^*)(z∗,s∗); ϵ\epsilonϵ is the minimum of the positive basic values. The basis inverse is never a matrix-inverse function: statements assert the existence of a two-sided inverse.
  • h∗h^*h∗ is defined in the form min⁡{∑Q0θisi:Mz+s=u, zM0=0}\min\{\sum_{\mathcal Q_0}\theta_is_i: Mz+s=u,\ z_{\mathcal M_0}=0\}min{∑Q0​​θi​si​:Mz+s=u, zM0​​=0}, equivalent to (7) under the paper's reduction M0=∅\mathcal M_0=\emptysetM0​=∅; θ\thetaθ is any solution of the complementary-slackness system, which is unique under GP.
  • Every O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is an explicit constant, quantified after the topology and rrr and before λ\lambdaλ. Placing it after λ\lambdaλ would turn the theorem into a per-instance boundedness statement and is ruled out.
  • A trivializing formalization (some unspecified policy, a τ\tauτ independent of ϵ\epsilonϵ, or GP replaced by an unsatisfiable condition) is ruled out: the policy is constructed, τ=⌈κ/ϵ⌉\tau=\lceil\kappa/\epsilon\rceilτ=⌈κ/ϵ⌉, and a sanity file proves GP for the Figure 1 network with ϵ=1/5\epsilon=1/5ϵ=1/5.
  • Not posed: the lower bound of Theorem 3.1, Proposition 4.1 (8)–(9), Lemmas B.1–B.2, Proposition B.1 and displays (21)–(22), which do not hold as printed; Theorem 5.2 and §6.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the LP facts (milestones 2–3) and Lemma 4.1, a Mathlib-ready proof of Lemma 4.2, and any correct argument for the epoch bounds.

Selected references

  • S. Kerimov, I. Ashlagi, I. Gurvich, Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret, SSRN 3824407 (version of Sep 14, 2022); Management Science, 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3824407, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215
  • P. W. Glynn, A. Zeevi, Bounding stationary expectations of Markov processes, in Markov Processes and Related Topics, IMS Collections 4, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1214/074921708000000381
  • P. Bumpensanti, H. Wang, A re-solving heuristic with uniformly bounded loss for network revenue management, Management Science 66, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3365
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997.
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization 1: Cross-Fitted AIPW Policy Learning Has Regret O_p(κ(Π)√(V*/n)) Even with Slowly Converging Nuisance EstimatesResearch Paper

Learning treatment policies from logged data

Many decisions are made by assigning one of several actions to an individual on the basis of observed features: which of ddd drugs to prescribe, which of several promotions to show, which job-training programme to offer. Experimentation is often costly or unethical, while historical records of past assignments and their outcomes are plentiful. Offline policy learning asks for a rule that maps features to actions, chosen from such observational records, whose expected outcome is close to that of the best rule in a prescribed class. The binary-action case was settled by Kitagawa and Tetenov (2018) with known propensities and by Athey and Wager (2021) with estimated ones; Zhou, Athey and Wager extend the doubly robust approach to d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 actions. This mission formalizes the statistical half of that paper: the regret guarantee of its cross-fitted learner.

Timeline. Robins, Rotnitzky and Zhao (1994) introduced augmented inverse-propensity weighting (AIPW). Dudík, Langford and Li (2011) used doubly robust scores for multi-action policy evaluation and optimization. Chernozhukov et al. (2018) showed that cross-fitting removes the bias of flexible nuisance estimates in semiparametric estimation. Athey and Wager proved n\sqrt nn​-rate regret for binary actions with VC classes. Zhou, Athey and Wager (arXiv 2018; Operations Research, 2023) treat ddd actions with a Hamming entropy integral as the complexity measure.

Setting

There are ddd actions, written 1,…,d1,\dots,d1,…,d and identified with the standard basis vectors of Rd\mathbb R^dRd, so that for γ∈Rd\gamma\in\mathbb R^dγ∈Rd the inner product ⟨π(x),γ⟩\langle\pi(x),\gamma\rangle⟨π(x),γ⟩ is the coordinate γπ(x)\gamma_{\pi(x)}γπ(x)​. A draw consists of features X∈XX\in\mathcal XX∈X, potential outcomes (Y(1),…,Y(d))(Y(1),\dots,Y(d))(Y(1),…,Y(d)) and a logged action AAA; only the triple (X,A,Y)(X,A,Y)(X,A,Y) with Y=Y(A)Y=Y(A)Y=Y(A) is observed. The data are nnn iid draws.

The model consists of a law PXP_XPX​ of the features and two conditional laws given X=xX=xX=x: one for the outcome vector, one for the action. Given XXX the two are independent (unconfoundedness). The propensity is ea(x)=P(A=a∣X=x)e_a(x)=P(A=a\mid X=x)ea​(x)=P(A=a∣X=x) and the mean reward is μa(x)=E[Y(a)∣X=x]\mu_a(x)=\mathbb E[Y(a)\mid X=x]μa​(x)=E[Y(a)∣X=x]. A policy is a map π:X→{1,…,d}\pi:\mathcal X\to\{1,\dots,d\}π:X→{1,…,d} from a class Π\PiΠ. Its value is Q(π)=E[Y(π(X))]Q(\pi)=\mathbb E[Y(\pi(X))]Q(π)=E[Y(π(X))] and its regret is R(π)=sup⁡π′∈ΠQ(π′)−Q(π)R(\pi)=\sup_{\pi'\in\Pi}Q(\pi')-Q(\pi)R(π)=supπ′∈Π​Q(π′)−Q(π).

The learner, CAIPWL (Algorithm 1), divides the sample into K≥2K\ge2K≥2 evenly sized folds. For each fold kkk it fits estimators μ^a−k\hat\mu^{-k}_aμ^​a−k​, e^a−k\hat e^{-k}_ae^a−k​ on the observed data outside fold kkk, forms the cross-fitted AIPW score

Γ^i,j=μ^j−k(i)(Xi)+1{Ai=j}Yi−μ^Ai−k(i)(Xi)e^Ai−k(i)(Xi),\hat\Gamma_{i,j}=\hat\mu^{-k(i)}_j(X_i)+\mathbf 1\{A_i=j\}\frac{Y_i-\hat\mu^{-k(i)}_{A_i}(X_i)}{\hat e^{-k(i)}_{A_i}(X_i)},Γ^i,j​=μ^​j−k(i)​(Xi​)+1{Ai​=j}e^Ai​−k(i)​(Xi​)Yi​−μ^​Ai​−k(i)​(Xi​)​,

and returns a maximizer π^CAIPWL\hat\pi_{CAIPWL}π^CAIPWL​ over Π\PiΠ of Q^CAIPWL(π)=1n∑iΓ^i,π(Xi)\hat Q_{CAIPWL}(\pi)=\frac1n\sum_i\hat\Gamma_{i,\pi(X_i)}Q^​CAIPWL​(π)=n1​∑i​Γ^i,π(Xi​)​. The oracle score Γi\Gamma_iΓi​ is the same expression with the true μ\muμ and eee; it gives Q~(π)=1n∑iΓi,π(Xi)\tilde Q(\pi)=\frac1n\sum_i\Gamma_{i,\pi(X_i)}Q~​(π)=n1​∑i​Γi,π(Xi​)​. Write Δ\DeltaΔ, Δ~\tilde\DeltaΔ~, Δ^\hat\DeltaΔ^ for the differences Q(π1)−Q(π2)Q(\pi_1)-Q(\pi_2)Q(π1​)−Q(π2​), Q~(π1)−Q~(π2)\tilde Q(\pi_1)-\tilde Q(\pi_2)Q~​(π1​)−Q~​(π2​), Q^(π1)−Q^(π2)\hat Q(\pi_1)-\hat Q(\pi_2)Q^​(π1​)−Q^​(π2​), and

V∗=sup⁡πa,πb∈ΠE[(Γπa(X)−Γπb(X))2].V_*=\sup_{\pi_a,\pi_b\in\Pi}\mathbb E\big[(\Gamma_{\pi_a(X)}-\Gamma_{\pi_b(X)})^2\big].V∗​=πa​,πb​∈Πsup​E[(Γπa​(X)​−Γπb​(X)​)2].

The complexity of Π\PiΠ is measured through the Hamming distance H(π1,π2)=1m#{j:π1(xj)≠π2(xj)}H(\pi_1,\pi_2)=\frac1m\#\{j:\pi_1(x_j)\ne\pi_2(x_j)\}H(π1​,π2​)=m1​#{j:π1​(xj​)=π2​(xj​)} on points x1,…,xmx_1,\dots,x_mx1​,…,xm​. The covering number NH(ε,Π)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi)NH​(ε,Π) is the supremum over all finite point sequences of the least number of policies of Π\PiΠ that ε\varepsilonε-cover Π\PiΠ in HHH. The entropy integral is κ(Π)=∫01log⁡NH(ε2,Π) dε\kappa(\Pi)=\int_0^1\sqrt{\log N_H(\varepsilon^2,\Pi)}\,d\varepsilonκ(Π)=∫01​logNH​(ε2,Π)​dε.

The assumptions are: overlap, ea(x)≥η>0e_a(x)\ge\eta>0ea​(x)≥η>0; bounded rewards, ∣Y(a)∣≤B|Y(a)|\le B∣Y(a)∣≤B; Assumption 2, E[(μ^a−k−μa)2]⋅E[(e^a−k−ea)2]=o(1)/n\mathbb E[(\hat\mu^{-k}_a-\mu_a)^2]\cdot\mathbb E[(\hat e^{-k}_a-e_a)^2]=o(1)/nE[(μ^​a−k​−μa​)2]⋅E[(e^a−k​−ea​)2]=o(1)/n; and Assumption 3, NH(ε,Π)≤Cexp⁡(Dε−ω)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi)\le C\exp(D\varepsilon^{-\omega})NH​(ε,Π)≤Cexp(Dε−ω) with 0<ω<1/20<\omega<1/20<ω<1/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 in the form of Remark 8, (18), p. 22

R(π^CAIPWL)=Op(κ(Π)V∗n),R(\hat\pi_{CAIPWL})=O_p\Big(\kappa(\Pi)\sqrt{\tfrac{V_*}{n}}\Big),R(π^CAIPWL​)=Op​(κ(Π)nV∗​​​),

read per nnn: for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there are M>0M>0M>0 and NNN with P(R(π^CAIPWL)>Mκ(Π)V∗/n)≤ε\mathbb P\big(R(\hat\pi_{CAIPWL})>M\kappa(\Pi)\sqrt{V_*/n}\big)\le\varepsilonP(R(π^CAIPWL​)>Mκ(Π)V∗​/n​)≤ε for all n≥Nn\ge Nn≥N. This is the paper's own "simpler way of stating the regret bound in Theorem 3". It fixes the rate and the dependence on κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) and V∗V_*V∗​, but no constants.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (1): the inner product distance IΓI_\GammaIΓ​ satisfies the triangle inequality.
  2. (48): E[Q~(π)]=Q(π)\mathbb E[\tilde Q(\pi)]=Q(\pi)E[Q~​(π)]=Q(π).
  3. (17): Δ^−Δ~=∑j(S1j+S2j+S3j)\hat\Delta-\tilde\Delta=\sum_j(S^j_1+S^j_2+S^j_3)Δ^−Δ~=∑j​(S1j​+S2j​+S3j​), the algebraic split into error terms.
  4. Lemma 3 (pinned): sup⁡π1,π2∈Π∣Δ^−Δ~∣=op(n−1/2)\sup_{\pi_1,\pi_2\in\Pi}|\hat\Delta-\tilde\Delta|=o_p(n^{-1/2})supπ1​,π2​∈Π​∣Δ^−Δ~∣=op​(n−1/2).
  5. Oracle concentration (Lemma 2 as used in (18), pinned): sup⁡π1,π2∈Π∣Δ~−Δ∣=Op(n−1/2)\sup_{\pi_1,\pi_2\in\Pi}|\tilde\Delta-\Delta|=O_p(n^{-1/2})supπ1​,π2​∈Π​∣Δ~−Δ∣=Op​(n−1/2).
  6. (18): R(π^)≤sup⁡π1,π2∈Π∣Δ^−Δ∣R(\hat\pi)\le\sup_{\pi_1,\pi_2\in\Pi}|\hat\Delta-\Delta|R(π^)≤supπ1​,π2​∈Π​∣Δ^−Δ∣ for every empirical maximizer.

Printed statements not posed

  • Theorem 3's explicit display, R≤(54.42κ(Π)+435.2+2log⁡(1/δ))V∗/nR\le(54.4\sqrt2\kappa(\Pi)+435.2+\sqrt{2\log(1/\delta)})\sqrt{V_*/n}R≤(54.42​κ(Π)+435.2+2log(1/δ)​)V∗​/n​, together with Theorem 1, Lemma 2 (11) and Theorem 2, is not posed. Lemma 1(2), which the proof of Theorem 1 uses, is false. With three points, d=2d=2d=2, π0≡1\pi_0\equiv1π0​≡1, πk\pi_kπk​ switching to action 2 at the point kkk only, and γi=(1,0)\gamma_i=(1,0)γi​=(1,0), one gets NIΓ(0.7)=4>3≥NH(0.49)N_{I_\Gamma}(0.7)=4>3\ge N_H(0.49)NIΓ​​(0.7)=4>3≥NH​(0.49).
  • The V∗\sqrt{V_*}V∗​​ scaling of Theorem 1 fails for interval-switching classes, where κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) stays bounded, V∗=2pV_*=2pV∗​=2p, and the Rademacher complexity is of order plog⁡(1/p)\sqrt{p\log(1/p)}plog(1/p)​.
  • 54.42(κ+8)54.4\sqrt2(\kappa+8)54.42​(κ+8) equals 54.42κ+435.2254.4\sqrt2\kappa+435.2\sqrt254.42​κ+435.22​, not 54.42κ+435.254.4\sqrt2\kappa+435.254.42​κ+435.2.
  • The o(1/n)o(1/\sqrt n)o(1/n​) and op(1/n)o_p(1/\sqrt n)op​(1/n​) remainders cannot be absorbed into one explicit constant at a fixed probability.
  • Lemma 1(2) is not posed, being false.

Significance

The theorem shows that a learner can use flexible machine-learning estimates of the propensities and outcome regressions, each converging more slowly than n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2, and still attain the regret rate of an oracle that knows them, provided the product of their errors is o(n−1/2)o(n^{-1/2})o(n−1/2). This doubly robust rate condition is what makes cross-fitted AIPW scores usable for policy learning with random forests, boosting or neural-network nuisances. The dependence on Π\PiΠ only through κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) covers the multi-action classes the paper uses later, such as depth-LLL decision trees.

On formalization: the result is proved on paper, with explicit constants that are not established as printed. No machine-checked proof of any part of it is known. A complete development would give a checked doubly robust policy-learning guarantee with the hypotheses a correct proof needs, stated explicitly. It would also deliver, as by-products, a checked uniform-entropy bound for empirical processes indexed by policy differences and a cross-fitting lemma with fold-wise conditional independence.

Difficulty

Two parts are hard. The oracle concentration needs a chaining (Dudley-type) bound for the empirical process {Δ~(π1,π2)−Δ(π1,π2)}\{\tilde\Delta(\pi_1,\pi_2)-\Delta(\pi_1,\pi_2)\}{Δ~(π1​,π2​)−Δ(π1​,π2​)}, indexed by pairs of policies, in which the covering numbers are uniform over point sets and the entropy integrand uses ε2\varepsilon^2ε2. Bounding one fixed pair by a central limit theorem is not enough, because the supremum over Π×Π\Pi\times\PiΠ×Π is the whole point. Lemma 3 needs the conditional independence that cross-fitting creates: given the data outside fold kkk, the terms of fold kkk are iid with conditional mean zero in the first two error terms of (17). The uniform op(n−1/2)o_p(n^{-1/2})op​(n−1/2) bound then comes from a localized chaining argument whose radius shrinks with the nuisance errors. A naive argument conditioning on all the data at once loses the mean-zero structure.

Formalization scope

Actions are Fin d; policies are deterministic maps X → Fin d (endnote 3, p. 45), and a class is Pol : Set (X → Fin d). The model is a probability measure PX with two Markov kernels κY, κA, and the joint law is PX ⊗ₘ (κY ×ₖ κA). This builds unconfoundedness into the law. The sample of size nnn is the product measure on Fin n → Draw X d. Estimators of fold kkk are functions of the observed triples indexed by {i // fold n i ≠ k}, so they cannot see fold kkk or unobserved potential outcomes. The regret uses sup⁡π′∈ΠQ(π′)\sup_{\pi'\in\Pi}Q(\pi')supπ′∈Π​Q(π′) in place of Q(π∗)Q(\pi^*)Q(π∗). κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) is an ℝ≥0∞ lower integral, finite under Assumption 3. OpO_pOp​ and opo_pop​ are read for each nnn separately: Definition 8's "∀n≥N\forall n\ge N∀n≥N with probability 1−ε1-\varepsilon1−ε" presupposes one probability space for all nnn. Bounded support is stated for each xxx under κY x.

Hypotheses added to the printed ones:

  • (i) both mean-squared errors tend to 000 separately, in addition to (3). The proof of Lemma 3 uses separate rates, and with μ^≡0\hat\mu\equiv0μ^​≡0, e^=e\hat e=ee^=e, condition (3) holds while the first term of (17) has exact order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2.
  • (ii) ∣μ^∣≤B^|\hat\mu|\le\hat B∣μ^​∣≤B^, e^≥η^>0\hat e\ge\hat\eta>0e^≥η^​>0, and both estimators are measurable.
  • (iii) the policies are measurable, and the class is permissible: for each mmm and action pattern, the set of point sequences on which some policy realizes the pattern is measurable.

Without (ii) and (iii), Lean's integrals of non-measurable functions are 000 and Assumption 2 would be vacuous. The hypotheses are satisfiable: the oracle estimators μ^=μ\hat\mu=\muμ^​=μ, e^=e\hat e=ee^=e meet every estimator condition, and a finite class of constant policies meets Assumption 3 and permissibility. The degenerate cases κ(Π)=0\kappa(\Pi)=0κ(Π)=0 or V∗=0V_*=0V∗​=0 force zero regret, so the goal is not trivialized there.

Needed infrastructure: product measures and kernels (Mathlib), and Hamming covering numbers (local, Definition 4). Still to build: uniform-entropy chaining for bounded classes, and Talagrand/Bousquet-type concentration. Contributions are welcome on the chaining bound, the cross-fitting conditional-independence lemma, and the elementary items (48), (17) and Lemma 1(1). These are reusable in any doubly robust estimation mission.

Selected references

  • Z. Zhou, S. Athey, S. Wager, Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization, arXiv:1810.04778v2, 2018; Operations Research 71(1), 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04778
  • S. Athey, S. Wager, Policy Learning with Observational Data, Econometrica 89(1), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1702.02896
  • T. Kitagawa, A. Tetenov, Who Should Be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice, Econometrica 86(2), 2018. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA13288
  • V. Chernozhukov et al., Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Structural Parameters, The Econometrics Journal 21(1), 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.00060
  • M. Dudík, J. Langford, L. Li, Doubly Robust Policy Evaluation and Learning, ICML 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1103.4601
  • J. Robins, A. Rotnitzky, L. P. Zhao, Estimation of Regression Coefficients When Some Regressors Are Not Always Observed, JASA 89(427), 1994. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1994.10476818
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EconomicsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy I: Periodic Inspection Beats Random Inspection Below an Inspection-Cost Threshold and Loses Above ItResearch Paper

Why inspection timing matters

A firm that relies on employees to process transactions can lose money when errors remain undetected. Inspection catches errors, but each inspection costs money, and employees may change their care when they know when an inspection will occur. These effects make the timing of inspections part of a contract design problem, not just a scheduling choice. Kim and Xu study that problem in a continuous-time principal–agent model of operational risk. Their SSRN preprint proves that the ranking of two common inspection policies changes with the cost of inspection: periodic inspection is better at low cost, while random inspection is better at high cost (Proposition 4, p. 17). This mission targets that result in the authors' July 2023 preprint, whose numbering is used throughout.

The comparison matters because neither inspection policy has an unconditional advantage in the model. A periodic schedule fixes the time until the next inspection; a random schedule makes that time uncertain. The agent responds to the schedule through effort, while the firm pays both for inspections and for errors left unresolved. Choosing a policy by its inspection frequency alone therefore misses a change in the agent's response and in the duration of losses. The paper develops both policies' optimal contracts before comparing their payoffs Kim and Xu, §§3–4.

The model

The principal is a firm and the agent is an employee. The firm earns base profit at rate μ>0\mu>0μ>0. The agent chooses a nonnegative effort path a(t)a(t)a(t), where ttt is time since the last inspection, at unit cost c>0c>0c>0. Errors arrive at aggregate rate λe−a(t)\lambda e^{-a(t)}λe−a(t), with λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. Each unresolved error causes expected loss L>0L>0L>0 per unit time until the next inspection finds and corrects it. The paper begins with several error classes, then uses their aggregate arrival rate λ\lambdaλ and rate-weighted mean loss LLL for the remainder of the analysis (7), p. 10.

The firm chooses an inspection frequency vvv, a penalty PPP charged to the employee per error found, and a wage www. Under the random policy RRR, the time τ\tauτ between inspections is exponentially distributed with rate vvv; under the periodic policy DDD, it equals 1/v1/v1/v. The employee chooses a best response to the announced policy and contract. The employee must receive at least the reservation payoff πˉ>0\bar\pi>0πˉ>0. Both parties discount future payoffs at rate r>0r>0r>0. An inspection costs the firm K>0K>0K>0 per cycle. Equations (1) and (3) specify their discounted payoffs; equation (6) gives the firm's reduced payoff when participation binds §3, pp. 8–10.

The standing Assumption 1 is c<Lλ/rc<L\lambda/rc<Lλ/r and Lλ/r<μˉL\lambda/r<\bar\muLλ/r<μˉ​, with μˉ=μ−rπˉ\bar\mu=\mu-r\bar\piμˉ​=μ−rπˉ. The first inequality excludes the paper's degenerate no-effort regime; the second ensures that the adjusted base profit exceeds the expected operational loss of the uninspected benchmark (7), p. 10. In the formalization, all six parameters r,c,λ,L,μ,πˉr,c,\lambda,L,\mu,\bar\pir,c,λ,L,μ,πˉ are also positive, as stated in §3.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 4. For fixed model parameters there is one inspection-cost threshold KRDK_{RD}KRD​, independent of the particular positive cost KKK, such that

0<K<KRD⟹ΠR(SR∗)<ΠD(SD∗),0<K<K_{RD}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \Pi_R(S_R^*)<\Pi_D(S_D^*),0<K<KRD​⟹ΠR​(SR∗​)<ΠD​(SD∗​), 0<K and K>KRD⟹ΠD(SD∗)<ΠR(SR∗).0<K\ \text{and}\ K>K_{RD}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \Pi_D(S_D^*)<\Pi_R(S_R^*).0<K and K>KRD​⟹ΠD​(SD∗​)<ΠR​(SR∗​).

Here SR∗S_R^*SR∗​ and SD∗S_D^*SD∗​ are optimal feasible strategies under the respective inspection laws. The paper does not specify which policy is better at K=KRDK=K_{RD}K=KRD​, and the formal goal does not add an equality claim there Proposition 4, p. 17.

The milestones first connect binding participation to the firm's reduced payoff in (6). Lemma 3 identifies constant optimal effort under random inspections and its threshold v‾R\underline v_Rv​R​; Lemma 4 identifies the time-dependent effort under periodic inspections and its threshold v‾D\underline v_Dv​D​. The two statements in §4.2 then express the firm's reduced payoff through the explicit random branches VˉR,VR0\bar V_R,V_R^0VˉR​,VR0​ of (EC.2) and periodic branches VˉD,V‾D,VD0\bar V_D,\underline V_D,V_D^0VˉD​,V​D​,VD0​ of (EC.4) pp. 10, 13–14 and ec5–ec6. These targets fix the model and its regime changes before solvers address the policy-level optimization.

What the result establishes

The result distinguishes regimes in which a predictable inspection date pays off from regimes in which an uncertain one pays off, after each policy's frequency, penalty, wage and induced effort are optimized. It is a claim about the principal's optimal payoff under complete contracts in the paper's model. It does not assert that either schedule dominates for every fixed frequency or penalty. The strict comparisons matter: they identify a genuine reversal rather than a weak inclusion of one policy's feasible strategies in another's Proposition 4, p. 17.

Kim and Xu proved this proposition in the cited preprint; the open work in this mission is to give its stated model, supporting results and comparison a machine-checked Lean proof. The definitions of inspection laws, achievable payoffs and discounted cycle quantities can also support the paper's separate hybrid-policy comparison and future formal work on continuous-time inspection contracts. The closed-form payoff branches provide testable interfaces between the economic model and the optimization results. The mission does not claim that any of these proofs is already machine checked.

Where the difficulty lies

The direct intuition that unpredictable inspections should always restrain delayed effort fails as a policy comparison. Under a periodic schedule, the employee can increase effort near the known inspection time, but earlier inspection also shortens the time that errors remain costly. The relative effect depends on KKK and on which effort regime is optimal. An argument based only on the employee's response at a fixed (v,P)(v,P)(v,P) cannot determine the ranking of the principal's optimized payoffs. The paper's characterization of each policy includes both effort inducement and error correction modes, with different closed forms and cost thresholds §4.2, pp. 14–15; proof of Proposition 4, pp. ec30–ec33.

Formalization scope

Lean represents an effort path as a real-valued function of time since the last inspection. It is measurable, nonnegative and bounded. The last condition is a disclosed modelling pin: it ensures that the real-valued expected effort and error terms do not acquire Lean's default zero value for a nonintegrable function. The random interval law is Mathlib's exponential measure; the periodic law is a Dirac measure at 1/v1/v1/v. The error classes are aggregated using λ\lambdaλ and LLL, and expected errors are λ∫0te−a(s)ds\lambda\int_0^t e^{-a(s)}dsλ∫0t​e−a(s)ds. This starts at the discounted cycle payoff equations (1) and (3), rather than reconstructing the underlying Poisson and Brownian processes §3 and Appendix EC.4.1.

Feasible principal strategies require v>0v>0v>0, P,w≥0P,w\ge0P,w≥0, a best-responding agent and the participation constraint. This makes the 1/v1/v1/v formulas meaningful. The agent's best-response test sets w=0w=0w=0, because wage enters payoff additively and cannot change which effort is optimal. A policy comparison uses achievable payoffs: it asserts an achievable payoff for the better policy exceeding every achievable payoff of the worse policy. That formulation avoids default values of a real supremum over an empty or unbounded set. It also prevents an empty feasible set from satisfying a comparison vacuously. The threshold KRDK_{RD}KRD​ is quantified before KKK, and the source does not explicitly require it to be positive. Formulas dividing by PPP are invoked only when P>c/λP>c/\lambdaP>c/λ; the zero-penalty case has a separate statement.

This initial mission includes the model, the effort lemmas, the two payoff-regime statements and Proposition 4. Characterizing the globally optimal random and periodic contracts and their comparisons remains welcome solver work; their long closed-form optimization results have not been weakened into easier draft milestones. Reusable contributions include integration facts for the exponential and Dirac laws, best-response characterizations up to almost-everywhere equality, and analytic properties of the payoff branches.

Selected references

  • Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy, SSRN preprint 3491006, version compiled July 2023, SSRN. Published in Management Science, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2021.00322. The mission cites the preprint's page and result numbering.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Superstar Exclusivity in Two-Sided Markets: Exclusivity Draws Consumers and Complementors to the Favored Platform and Raises Complementors' Total SurplusResearch Paper

Motivation

Platform markets often feature a Superstar: a single complement whose presence moves consumers, such as a blockbuster game on a console or a star streamer on a video platform. Whether such a Superstar signs an exclusive deal with one platform or stays available on both is a recurring question for competition authorities and for platform managers. Empirical work documents both sides of the effect. Exclusive titles help small consoles challenge incumbents (Lee 2013). Superstar apps generate demand-discovery spillovers for small developers (Ershov 2020, NET Institute working paper). When a star streamer switched platforms, viewers followed and other content producers repositioned (Förderer & Gutt 2021, working paper).

Carroni, Madio & Shekhar (Management Science, 2024) build a two-sided Hotelling model with three groups of agents: consumers, a fringe of small complementors, and the Superstar. The model asks how Superstar exclusivity changes prices, participation and welfare. This mission formalizes the paper's analysis of the complementor side under vertical separation. The analysis runs through the equilibrium prices (Lemmas 1–3) and the sorting of complementors into multihomers, singlehomers and inactive firms (Proposition 1). It ends in the welfare result that exclusivity raises complementors' total surplus (Proposition 3).

Setting

Two platforms 111 and 222 sit at the ends of a Hotelling line. A unit mass of consumers has types m∈[−mˉ,mˉ]m\in[-\bar m,\bar m]m∈[−mˉ,mˉ], distributed with cumulative distribution function FFF and density fff. The type mmm measures the preference for platform 222 over platform 111. The Superstar is worth ϕ\phiϕ to a consumer of a platform that hosts it, and gi∈{0,1}g_i\in\{0,1\}gi​∈{0,1} records its presence on platform iii. A consumer of type mmm joins platform 111 rather than 222 when

m≤m~=ϕ(g1−g2)−(p1−p2)+θ(N1−N2),m\le \tilde m=\phi(g_1-g_2)-(p_1-p_2)+\theta(N_1-N_2),m≤m~=ϕ(g1​−g2​)−(p1​−p2​)+θ(N1​−N2​),

where pip_ipi​ are the consumer prices, NiN_iNi​ the masses of complementors on the platforms, and θ>0\theta>0θ>0 the value of a unit mass of complementors to a consumer. Platform 111's consumer share is D=F(m~)D=F(\tilde m)D=F(m~) and platform 222's is 1−D1-D1−D.

Complementors have an opportunity cost k≥0k\ge0k≥0 of joining each platform, distributed with mass function Λ\LambdaΛ and density λ\lambdaλ. A complementor receives γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 per unit mass of consumers, so it joins platform iii if and only if k≤γDik\le\gamma D_ik≤γDi​, and Ni=Λ(γDi)N_i=\Lambda(\gamma D_i)Ni​=Λ(γDi​). A complementor that joins both platforms pays kkk twice.

Expectations are fulfilled: the share DDD solves the fixed-point equation

D=F(ϕ(g1−g2)−(p1−p2)+θ[Λ(γD)−Λ(γ(1−D))]).D=F\bigl(\phi(g_1-g_2)-(p_1-p_2)+\theta[\Lambda(\gamma D)-\Lambda(\gamma(1-D))]\bigr).D=F(ϕ(g1​−g2​)−(p1​−p2​)+θ[Λ(γD)−Λ(γ(1−D))]).

Platforms choose prices simultaneously to maximise gross profit piDip_iD_ipi​Di​. Under exclusivity the Superstar is on platform 111 only (g=(1,0)g=(1,0)g=(1,0)); under non-exclusivity it is on both (g=(1,1)g=(1,1)g=(1,1)). The paper's standing assumptions are smoothness and symmetry of FFF, a positive nondecreasing density λ\lambdaλ, and Assumption 3: fγθ[λ(γF)+λ(γ(1−F))]<1f\gamma\theta[\lambda(\gamma F)+\lambda(\gamma(1-F))]<1fγθ[λ(γF)+λ(γ(1−F))]<1, which keeps cross-group externalities below the differentiation parameter. The complementors' total surplus at shares (D1,D2)(D_1,D_2)(D1​,D2​) is

FS(D1,D2)=∫0γD1(γD1−k)λ(k) dk+∫0γD2(γD2−k)λ(k) dk.FS(D_1,D_2)=\int_0^{\gamma D_1}(\gamma D_1-k)\lambda(k)\,dk+\int_0^{\gamma D_2}(\gamma D_2-k)\lambda(k)\,dk .FS(D1​,D2​)=∫0γD1​​(γD1​−k)λ(k)dk+∫0γD2​​(γD2​−k)λ(k)dk.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

For ϕ>0\phi>0ϕ>0, let D(ϕ)D(\phi)D(ϕ) be platform 111's share in the selected exclusivity equilibrium and EEE the share in the symmetric non-exclusive equilibrium. Then

FS(E,1−E)<FS(D(ϕ),1−D(ϕ)).FS\bigl(E,1-E\bigr)<FS\bigl(D(\phi),1-D(\phi)\bigr).FS(E,1−E)<FS(D(ϕ),1−D(ϕ)).

The statement fixes no functional forms and no constants. It holds for every model satisfying the assumptions and every ϕ>0\phi>0ϕ>0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1. At every interior equilibrium, p1=F(m⋆){1/f(m⋆)−γθ[λ(γD1)+λ(γD2)]}p_1=F(m^\star)\{1/f(m^\star)-\gamma\theta[\lambda(\gamma D_1)+\lambda(\gamma D_2)]\}p1​=F(m⋆){1/f(m⋆)−γθ[λ(γD1​)+λ(γD2​)]}, and p2p_2p2​ is the same expression with 1−F(m⋆)1-F(m^\star)1−F(m⋆) in place of F(m⋆)F(m^\star)F(m⋆).
  2. Lemma 2. Under non-exclusivity at equal prices, D=12D=\tfrac12D=21​, m⋆=0m^\star=0m⋆=0 and p=1/(2f(0))−γθλ(γ/2)p=1/(2f(0))-\gamma\theta\lambda(\gamma/2)p=1/(2f(0))−γθλ(γ/2). All active complementors multihome.
  3. Lemma 3 (demand and complementor part). Under exclusivity, D1⋆(1,0)>D2⋆(0,1)D^\star_1(1,0)>D^\star_2(0,1)D1⋆​(1,0)>D2⋆​(0,1) and Λ(γD1⋆)>Λ(γD2⋆)\Lambda(\gamma D^\star_1)>\Lambda(\gamma D^\star_2)Λ(γD1⋆​)>Λ(γD2⋆​).
  4. Proposition 1. Under exclusivity, complementors with k∈(0,γD2⋆]k\in(0,\gamma D^\star_2]k∈(0,γD2⋆​] multihome, those with k∈(γD2⋆,γD1⋆]k\in(\gamma D^\star_2,\gamma D^\star_1]k∈(γD2⋆​,γD1⋆​] singlehome on platform 111, and the rest are inactive. More complementors are active than under non-exclusivity.
  5. Decomposition of ΔFS\Delta FSΔFS (Section 4.3) into the contributions of multihomers, of switchers from multihoming to singlehoming, and of entrants.

Significance

The result says that a Superstar's exclusive contract, usually discussed as a tool of foreclosure against the rival platform, benefits the fringe of complementors taken as a whole. Some complementors stop paying for a second platform. Others, inactive without exclusivity, enter on the favoured platform. The comparison feeds into the paper's welfare analysis (consumer surplus, Proposition 4) and into its account of when the Superstar chooses exclusivity (Proposition 5). It supplies a theoretical counterpart to the empirical spillover findings cited above.

The paper's proofs are informal in places that matter. Equilibrium selection under fulfilled expectations is described in words only, and the derivative argument for Lemma 3 tracks an equilibrium as a function of ϕ\phiϕ without saying which one. A formal development has to fix these choices, and this mission fixes them explicitly (see Formalization scope). None of these results has been machine-checked before. The fixed-point and first-order machinery for two-sided fulfilled-expectations demand would also serve other platform-competition models in the Armstrong (2006) tradition.

Difficulty

The surplus comparison itself is elementary once the equilibrium shares are known. The work lies in the equilibrium shares. Fulfilled-expectations demand is defined by a fixed point that can have several solutions, so neither the share at a deviation price nor the equilibrium share is a priori a function of prices. The obvious first step, "impose symmetry", does not prove that the non-exclusive share is 12\tfrac1221​. One must show that 12\tfrac1221​ is the only interior fixed point at equal prices. Likewise, the exclusive share exceeds 12\tfrac1221​ only for the equilibrium reached continuously from the symmetric one. Coordination on the disfavoured platform is a fulfilled-expectations outcome the model does not exclude. Lemma 1 needs a differentiable local branch of the fixed point at a deviation, which is where Assumption 3 enters.

Formalization scope

Everything is real-valued. The model is a structure with mˉ,γ,θ>0\bar m,\gamma,\theta>0mˉ,γ,θ>0, functions F,f,Λ,λ:R→RF,f,\Lambda,\lambda:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RF,f,Λ,λ:R→R, and the following hypotheses:

  • FFF is continuous and monotone, 000 left of −mˉ-\bar m−mˉ and 111 right of mˉ\bar mmˉ, C2C^2C2 with F′=f>0F'=f>0F′=f>0 on (−mˉ,mˉ)(-\bar m,\bar m)(−mˉ,mˉ), and symmetric, F(−x)=1−F(x)F(-x)=1-F(x)F(−x)=1−F(x);
  • Λ(0)=0\Lambda(0)=0Λ(0)=0, Λ\LambdaΛ is C2C^2C2 with Λ′=λ\Lambda'=\lambdaΛ′=λ, and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is nondecreasing on [0,γ][0,\gamma][0,γ];
  • Assumption 3 holds on (−mˉ,mˉ)(-\bar m,\bar m)(−mˉ,mˉ).

Several conventions depart from the paper's wording:

  • The paper asks for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, λ′≥0\lambda'\ge0λ′≥0 on all of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) for a distribution function Λ\LambdaΛ, which no distribution satisfies. These conditions are imposed on [0,γ][0,\gamma][0,γ], the only range on which Λ\LambdaΛ is evaluated.
  • The bounds on f′f'f′ in Assumption 2 are dropped, which only strengthens the statements.
  • "mˉ\bar mmˉ large enough" is replaced by interiority (0<D<10<D<10<D<1) of every equilibrium considered.
  • The standalone value vvv cancels and is omitted.

Fulfilled-expectations demand is a relation, not a chosen function. A price equilibrium is a Nash equilibrium in prices in which no deviation is profitable for any fulfilled-expectations share it induces. Lemma 1's formulas are a theorem about this equilibrium, not its definition. The symmetric non-exclusive outcome is the interior equilibrium at equal prices. The exclusive outcome is the end point, at value ϕ\phiϕ, of a continuous path of interior equilibria of the games with Superstar value t∈[0,ϕ]t\in[0,\phi]t∈[0,ϕ], starting from equal prices at t=0t=0t=0. Platform 222's share is always 1−D1-D1−D.

The goal must not be posed with D(ϕ)>12D(\phi)>\tfrac12D(ϕ)>21​, D(ϕ)≠12D(\phi)\ne\tfrac12D(ϕ)=21​ or E=12E=\tfrac12E=21​ as a hypothesis: since D↦FS(D,1−D)D\mapsto FS(D,1-D)D↦FS(D,1−D) is strictly convex and symmetric about 12\tfrac1221​, any of these would reduce it to a calculus exercise. The price ranking in Lemma 3 is not part of the mission. Its proof rests on bounds on f′f'f′ that the paper states only as functions of unspecified equilibrium arguments.

The needed infrastructure is the implicit function theorem in one variable, interval integrals of continuous functions, and the intermediate value theorem. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on alternative proofs of the goal, and on reusable lemmas about uniqueness of fulfilled-expectations fixed points.

Selected references

  • Carroni, E., Madio, L., Shekhar, S., Superstar Exclusivity in Two-Sided Markets, Management Science 70(2):991–1011, 2024; accepted manuscript at IRIS Bologna. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4720, http://hdl.handle.net/11585/922035
  • Armstrong, M., Competition in Two-Sided Markets, RAND Journal of Economics 37(3):668–691, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1756-2171.2006.tb00037.x
  • Fudenberg, D., Tirole, J., Customer Poaching and Brand Switching, RAND Journal of Economics 31(4):634–657, 2000. https://doi.org/10.2307/2696352
  • Lee, R. S., Vertical Integration and Exclusivity in Platform and Two-Sided Markets, American Economic Review 103(7):2960–3000, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.103.7.2960
  • Ershov, D., Competing with Superstars in the Mobile App Market, NET Institute Working Paper, 2020.
  • Förderer, J., Gutt, D., The Effects of Platform Superstars on Content Production: Evidence from Ninja, working paper, 2021.
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EconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Digital Privacy I: The Profit-Maximizing Data Collection and Protection Have a Closed Form, and Both Weakly Increase with the Data-Driven Revenue Share PResearch Paper

Why digital businesses choose how much data to keep and how well to guard it

Platforms that earn money from their users' activity make two linked decisions about the data that activity generates: how much of it to record and store, and how much to spend protecting what they store. Stored data lets a business tailor its services and sell data-driven products, but it also attracts adversaries (hackers, data brokers, unauthorized third parties) whose access harms users, who then use the service less. Fainmesser, Galeotti and Momot, Digital Privacy (Management Science 69(6), 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4513; author manuscript SSRN 3459274), build a tractable model of this trade-off and solve it in closed form. Their first main result, Theorem 1, gives the profit-maximizing data strategy explicitly and shows that a business whose revenue depends more on data both collects more and protects more. The result is the basis for the paper's policy analysis (data protection standards, Pigouvian taxes on stored data) and for its comparison with the social optimum, which is the subject of a companion mission.

Setting

A unit mass of identical users each choose an activity level a≥0a \ge 0a≥0. The business stores a fraction ξ∈[0,1]\xi \in [0,1]ξ∈[0,1] of every user's activity and protects it at level C≥0C \ge 0C≥0, at cost ψC\psi CψC. With average activity aˉ\bar aaˉ and a mass ω\omegaω of active adversaries, a user's utility is (display (1))

U(a,aˉ)=a−12a2+βaaˉ+(ρ−ω)aξ,U(a, \bar a) = a - \tfrac12 a^2 + \beta a\bar a + (\rho - \omega) a\xi ,U(a,aˉ)=a−21​a2+βaaˉ+(ρ−ω)aξ,

where β∈[0,1)\beta \in [0,1)β∈[0,1) measures network effects and ρ∈[0,1)\rho \in [0,1)ρ∈[0,1) the users' benefit from tailored services built on stored data. Adversaries have access costs γC\gamma CγC with γ\gammaγ uniform on [0,M][0, M][0,M] and gain aˉξ\bar a\xiaˉξ; letting M→∞M \to \inftyM→∞, the mass of active adversaries is ω=ξaˉ/C\omega = \xi\bar a/Cω=ξaˉ/C. Proposition 1 shows that for every data strategy (ξ,C)(\xi, C)(ξ,C) with C>0C > 0C>0 this users–adversaries subgame has a unique equilibrium,

aˉ∗(ξ,C)=C(1+ρξ)C(1−β)+ξ2,ω∗(ξ,C)=ξaˉ∗(ξ,C)C,\bar a^*(\xi, C) = \frac{C(1+\rho\xi)}{C(1-\beta)+\xi^2}, \qquad \omega^*(\xi, C) = \frac{\xi\bar a^*(\xi, C)}{C},aˉ∗(ξ,C)=C(1−β)+ξ2C(1+ρξ)​,ω∗(ξ,C)=Cξaˉ∗(ξ,C)​,

with consumer surplus CS(ξ,C)=12aˉ∗(ξ,C)2\mathrm{CS}(\xi, C) = \tfrac12\bar a^*(\xi, C)^2CS(ξ,C)=21​aˉ∗(ξ,C)2; when nothing is stored, aˉ∗(0,C)=1/(1−β)\bar a^*(0, C) = 1/(1-\beta)aˉ∗(0,C)=1/(1−β). The business's profit is (display (2))

Π(ξ,C)=(1−P) aˉ∗(ξ,C)+P ξaˉ∗(ξ,C)−ψC,\Pi(\xi, C) = (1-P)\,\bar a^*(\xi, C) + P\,\xi\bar a^*(\xi, C) - \psi C ,Π(ξ,C)=(1−P)aˉ∗(ξ,C)+Pξaˉ∗(ξ,C)−ψC,

where the revenue model P∈[0,1]P \in [0,1]P∈[0,1] is the share of revenue that is data-driven: P=0P = 0P=0 is a purely usage-driven business, P=1P = 1P=1 a purely data-driven one. A business optimum is a strategy (ξ,C)∈[0,1]×[0,∞)(\xi, C) \in [0,1] \times [0,\infty)(ξ,C)∈[0,1]×[0,∞) that maximizes Π\PiΠ over [0,1]×[0,∞)[0,1] \times [0,\infty)[0,1]×[0,∞).

The Lean development uses the same names: abar, omegaStar, CS, profit, Feasible, IsBusinessOpt, the best-response quantities Ch (ChC_hCh​), kappa (κ\kappaκ), Cl (ClC_lCl​), xiBR, the threshold psiL (ψL\psi_LψL​), the interior root xiI (ξi\xi_iξi​), and the closed forms xiStar (ξ⋆\xi^\starξ⋆) and CStar (C⋆C^\starC⋆).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For fixed 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1, 0<ρ<10 < \rho < 10<ρ<1, ψ>0\psi > 0ψ>0 and every P∈(0,1]P \in (0,1]P∈(0,1], let

ξ⋆=max⁡{0,min⁡{1,12Pρ(−(1−P)ρ−P+∣P−(1−P)ρ∣ψmax⁡{0,ψ−Pρ})}},\xi^\star = \max\Big\{0, \min\Big\{1, \frac{1}{2P\rho}\Big(-(1-P)\rho - P + |P-(1-P)\rho|\sqrt{\frac{\psi}{\max\{0,\psi-P\rho\}}}\Big)\Big\}\Big\},ξ⋆=max{0,min{1,2Pρ1​(−(1−P)ρ−P+∣P−(1−P)ρ∣max{0,ψ−Pρ}ψ​​)}}, C⋆=ξ⋆1−β(−ξ⋆+1ψ(1+ρξ⋆)(1−P(1−ξ⋆))).C^\star = \frac{\xi^\star}{1-\beta}\Big(-\xi^\star + \sqrt{\tfrac1\psi(1+\rho\xi^\star)(1-P(1-\xi^\star))}\Big).C⋆=1−βξ⋆​(−ξ⋆+ψ1​(1+ρξ⋆)(1−P(1−ξ⋆))​).

Then (ξ⋆,C⋆)(\xi^\star, C^\star)(ξ⋆,C⋆) is a business optimum, and both P↦ξ⋆P \mapsto \xi^\starP↦ξ⋆ and P↦C⋆P \mapsto C^\starP↦C⋆ are weakly increasing on (0,1](0,1](0,1].

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): the subgame equilibrium (3) is unique, and consumer surplus is (4).
  2. Proposition 1 (a)–(b) with footnote 15: aˉ∗\bar a^*aˉ∗ and ξaˉ∗\xi\bar a^*ξaˉ∗ increase in CCC, and are single-peaked in ξ\xiξ.
  3. Lemma 1 (p. 29): for fixed ξ\xiξ, the unique optimal protection is max⁡{Ch(ξ),0}\max\{C_h(\xi), 0\}max{Ch​(ξ),0}.
  4. Lemma 2 (p. 29): for fixed C>0C > 0C>0, the unique optimal collection is −κ(C)+κ(C)2+C(1−β)-\kappa(C) + \sqrt{\kappa(C)^2 + C(1-\beta)}−κ(C)+κ(C)2+C(1−β)​ if C<ClC < C_lC<Cl​ and 111 if C>ClC > C_lC>Cl​.
  5. App. A.2 summary (p. 31): with Pρ≤ψL≤ψHP\rho \le \psi_L \le \psi_HPρ≤ψL​≤ψH​, the business optimum is (1,Ch(1))(1, C_h(1))(1,Ch​(1)) for ψ≤ψL\psi \le \psi_Lψ≤ψL​, (ξi,Ch(ξi))(\xi_i, C_h(\xi_i))(ξi​,Ch​(ξi​)) with ξi∈(0,1)\xi_i \in (0,1)ξi​∈(0,1) for ψL<ψ<ψH\psi_L < \psi < \psi_HψL​<ψ<ψH​, and (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) for ψ≥ψH\psi \ge \psi_Hψ≥ψH​.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the statement that a business's revenue model alone orders its data practices: holding users and costs fixed, moving toward data-driven revenue never lowers collection and never lowers protection. The paper uses it to explain why consumer surplus is maximized at an intermediate revenue model P=ρ/(1+ρ)P = \rho/(1+\rho)P=ρ/(1+ρ) (Proposition 2), and as the benchmark against which it evaluates regulation in §6. The closed form also makes the regime structure explicit: no collection when protection is expensive, full collection when it is cheap, and an interior solution in between.

The result is proved in the paper (App. A.2–A.3, with the proofs of Lemmas 1–2 in Online App. B), but parts of that proof are informal: several steps are "easy to check" or "can be derived similarly", one case is treated and the other left to the reader, and the second-order conditions are referred to a general lemma in Online App. C.5. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof certifies the closed form, including its boundary cases, which the printed formula handles through an infinite square root.

Difficulty

The profit is not jointly concave, so first-order conditions do not settle the problem. The argument intersects the two best responses (Lemmas 1–2), and two candidate strategies survive in the intermediate regime: (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) and the interior point. Choosing between them requires comparing profits across all ψ\psiψ and showing the comparison flips exactly at ψH\psi_HψH​. Monotonicity in PPP is harder still: as PPP moves, so do both thresholds ψL(P)\psi_L(P)ψL​(P) and ψH(P)\psi_H(P)ψH​(P), so a fixed ψ\psiψ can cross from one regime to another, and ξ⋆\xi^\starξ⋆ and C⋆C^\starC⋆ must be shown monotone within each regime and across the switches. Within the interior regime C⋆=Ch(ξ⋆)C^\star = C_h(\xi^\star)C⋆=Ch​(ξ⋆) depends on PPP both directly and through ξ⋆\xi^\starξ⋆, so differentiating the closed form does not by itself give the sign.

Formalization scope

All parameters are explicit real numbers; every optimum is taken over ξ∈[0,1]\xi \in [0,1]ξ∈[0,1], C≥0C \ge 0C≥0, never over R2\mathbb R^2R2. The page's ranges are 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1, 0≤ρ<10 \le \rho < 10≤ρ<1, ψ≥0\psi \ge 0ψ≥0, 0≤P≤10 \le P \le 10≤P≤1. The following are added and disclosed in each item: ψ>0\psi > 0ψ>0 everywhere (otherwise ChC_hCh​ and (6) divide by zero and no maximizer exists); P>0P > 0P>0 and ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0 in Theorem 1 and the App. A.2 summary (formula (5) divides by 2Pρ2P\rho2Pρ); C>0C > 0C>0 in Proposition 1 and Lemma 2 (the adversary mass ξaˉ/C\xi\bar a/Cξaˉ/C); ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0 in Lemma 2.

Three conventions are fixed. First, aˉ∗(0,C)=1/(1−β)\bar a^*(0, C) = 1/(1-\beta)aˉ∗(0,C)=1/(1−β) for every CCC, the paper's value at (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) where (3) is 0/00/00/0. Second, ξ⋆=1\xi^\star = 1ξ⋆=1 whenever ψ≤Pρ\psi \le P\rhoψ≤Pρ, the page's own reading of the infinite square root in (5). Third, ψ≥ψH\psi \ge \psi_Hψ≥ψH​ is written as (P+(1−P)ρ)2≤4(1−P)ψ(P+(1-P)\rho)^2 \le 4(1-P)\psi(P+(1−P)ρ)2≤4(1−P)ψ, so that ψH=+∞\psi_H = +\inftyψH​=+∞ at P=1P = 1P=1. Using Lean's 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0 at either of the first two places makes Theorem 1 false, not trivial, and is ruled out by these definitions. Theorem 1 asserts that (ξ⋆,C⋆)(\xi^\star, C^\star)(ξ⋆,C⋆) is a maximizer: uniqueness fails at P=ρ/(1+ρ)P = \rho/(1+\rho)P=ρ/(1+ρ), ψ=ρ2/(1+ρ)\psi = \rho^2/(1+\rho)ψ=ρ2/(1+ρ). Monotonicity is MonotoneOn on (0,1](0,1](0,1] with β,ρ,ψ\beta, \rho, \psiβ,ρ,ψ fixed; a Monotone statement with junk values outside (0,1](0,1](0,1] would not be the paper's claim.

A complete development needs only real analysis from Mathlib: one-variable calculus for the best responses, square-root and absolute-value manipulations for the closed form, and a profit comparison across regimes. The best-response lemmas are reusable for the companion mission on the social optimum. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of auxiliary lemmas such as C⋆=Ch(ξ⋆)C^\star = C_h(\xi^\star)C⋆=Ch​(ξ⋆), are welcome.

Selected references

  • I. P. Fainmesser, A. Galeotti, R. Momot, Digital Privacy, Management Science 69(6):3157–3173, 2023. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4513; author manuscript (This Draft: April 2022), SSRN 3459274.
  • E. L. Glaeser, J. A. Scheinkman, Non-Market Interactions, NBER Working Paper 8053, 2000 (existence and uniqueness of the users' response, used in App. A.1). doi:10.3386/w8053
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Linear OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Secretaries with Advice 1: Under Non-Filtering and History-Irrelevance, an Optimal Stopping Policy Is MemorylessResearch Paper

Motivation

In the classical secretary problem, nnn candidates arrive one at a time in random order; at each arrival the decision maker sees only how the current candidate compares with the earlier ones, and must irrevocably hire or pass. The goal is to hire the best candidate, and the optimal rule (wait for about n/en/en/e arrivals, then take the first candidate better than all before) succeeds with probability about 1/e1/e1/e.

In many applications the decision maker also receives advice about each candidate: a noisy score, a prediction from a machine-learned classifier, or samples from the same distribution. Dütting, Lattanzi, Paes Leme and Vassilvitskii (arXiv:2011.06726, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024) propose a single model covering these cases: each secretary carries a signal, ranks and signals have an arbitrary known joint distribution, and the question is which policies are optimal. Their first structural result says that, under two natural conditions on the distribution, the optimal policy can ignore almost all of the history: it needs only the current signal and whether the current secretary is the best so far. Such memoryless policies are simpler, store less, and are relevant where data retention is restricted.

Timeline. Dynkin (1963) gave the 1/e1/e1/e rule for the advice-free problem. Gilbert and Mosteller (1966) studied the full-information version, where the advice is the candidate's value drawn from a known distribution. Buchbinder, Jain and Singh (2014) wrote secretary problems as linear programs. Dütting et al. (arXiv 2020) extended this LP to general advice and proved Theorem 8, the result of this mission.

Setting

There are nnn secretaries, arriving in the order 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n, and a finite signal space S\mathcal SS. An outcome consists of ranks r1,…,rn∈[n]r_1,\dots,r_n\in[n]r1​,…,rn​∈[n] (ties allowed) and signals s1,…,sn∈Ss_1,\dots,s_n\in\mathcal Ss1​,…,sn​∈S. A signaling structure is a known probability distribution P\mathbb PP over outcomes such that, almost surely, some secretary has the top rank ri=nr_i=nri​=n.

At round iii the algorithm sees the information (⪯1..i,s1,…,si)(\preceq_{1..i},s_1,\dots,s_i)(⪯1..i​,s1​,…,si​): the relative order of the first iii arrivals and their signals, not the ranks themselves. A policy qqq assigns to every round iii and every information value a stopping probability in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The policy stops at iii with probability qi∏j<i(1−qj)q_i\prod_{j<i}(1-q_j)qi​∏j<i​(1−qj​), and its winning probability is the probability that it stops at some iii with ri=nr_i=nri​=n.

The best-so-far event is Ti={ri≥rj ∀j<i}T_i=\{r_i\ge r_j\ \forall j<i\}Ti​={ri​≥rj​ ∀j<i}. A policy is memoryless if its stopping probability at round iii depends only on iii, on whether TiT_iTi​ holds, and on sis_isi​.

Two properties of P\mathbb PP are assumed. Non-Filtering (NF): for j<ij<ij<i, the conditional law of (⪯1..j,s1,…,sj)(\preceq_{1..j},s_1,\dots,s_j)(⪯1..j​,s1​,…,sj​) given (Tj,sj)(T_j,s_j)(Tj​,sj​) is unchanged by additionally conditioning on (Ti,si)(T_i,s_i)(Ti​,si​). History-Irrelevance (HI): conditioned on (Ti,si)(T_i,s_i)(Ti​,si​), the information at round iii is independent of the event ri=nr_i=nri​=n.

For i∈[n]i\in[n]i∈[n], s,s′∈Ss,s'\in\mathcal Ss,s′∈S and j<ij<ij<i let a(i,s)=P[ri=n, si=s]a(i,s)=\mathbb P[r_i=n,\,s_i=s]a(i,s)=P[ri​=n,si​=s] and c(i,s,j,s′)=P[Tj, sj=s′∣Ti, si=s]c(i,s,j,s')=\mathbb P[T_j,\,s_j=s'\mid T_i,\,s_i=s]c(i,s,j,s′)=P[Tj​,sj​=s′∣Ti​,si​=s]. The LP of §3 has variables z(i,s)≥0z(i,s)\ge0z(i,s)≥0, constraint

z(i,s)≤1−∑j<i∑s′∈Sz(j,s′) c(i,s,j,s′),(4)z(i,s)\le 1-\sum_{j<i}\sum_{s'\in\mathcal S}z(j,s')\,c(i,s,j,s'),\tag{4}z(i,s)≤1−j<i∑​s′∈S∑​z(j,s′)c(i,s,j,s′),(4)

and objective Obj=∑i∑sz(i,s) a(i,s)\mathsf{Obj}=\sum_i\sum_s z(i,s)\,a(i,s)Obj=∑i​∑s​z(i,s)a(i,s) (5).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

If P\mathbb PP satisfies NF and HI, then there is a memoryless policy mmm with

P[m wins] ≥ P[q wins]for every policy q.\mathbb P[m\text{ wins}]\ \ge\ \mathbb P[q\text{ wins}]\qquad\text{for every policy } q.P[m wins] ≥ P[q wins]for every policy q.

Milestones

  1. Best-so-far reduction (§2, p. 6): every policy is dominated by one that stops only on best-so-far rounds.
  2. Equation (2) (p. 8): under HI, P[ri=n∣≺1..i,s1,…,si]=P[ri=n∣Ti,si]\mathbb P[r_i=n\mid\prec_{1..i},s_1,\dots,s_i]=\mathbb P[r_i=n\mid T_i,s_i]P[ri​=n∣≺1..i​,s1​,…,si​]=P[ri​=n∣Ti​,si​].
  3. Equation (3) (p. 9): under HI, P[X∣si,ri=n]=P[X∣Ti,si]\mathbb P[X\mid s_i,r_i=n]=\mathbb P[X\mid T_i,s_i]P[X∣si​,ri​=n]=P[X∣Ti​,si​] for every event XXX of the round-iii information.
  4. Proposition 9 (p. 10): under NF and HI, every policy yields z≥0z\ge0z≥0 satisfying (4) whose objective (5) is its winning probability.
  5. Reconstruction claim (proof of Proposition 10, p. 11): for feasible zzz, the policy (6) satisfies P[i is picked∣Ti,si=s]=z(i,s)\mathbb P[i\text{ is picked}\mid T_i,s_i=s]=z(i,s)P[i is picked∣Ti​,si​=s]=z(i,s).
  6. Proposition 10 (p. 10): under NF and HI, every feasible zzz is realized by a memoryless policy with winning probability Obj\mathsf{Obj}Obj.

Significance

Theorem 8 reduces the search for an optimal policy from functions of the entire history, whose number grows exponentially in nnn, to n⋅2⋅∣S∣n\cdot 2\cdot|\mathcal S|n⋅2⋅∣S∣ numbers, and with Propositions 9 and 10 it turns the problem into a linear program of polynomial size. The later sections of the paper build on it: threshold policies (§4), secretaries with samples (§5) and binary-classifier advice (§6) are all analysed through this LP. The examples satisfying NF and HI include the classical problem, the full-information problem, samples, and noisy classifier advice.

The paper gives a complete proof. As far as is known, none of it has been machine-checked, and Prove2Me has no formal model of secretary problems with advice. A formal development makes precise the parts the paper's argument leaves informal: the handling of conditioning on null events, of randomized policies, and of the existence of an optimum.

Difficulty

The obvious argument replaces a general policy by its conditional stopping probability given (Ti,si)(T_i,s_i)(Ti​,si​). This fails directly: the probability of reaching round iii depends on the whole history, so averaging the decision at round iii changes the distribution of the earlier stopping events, and the winning probability with it. The paper therefore goes through the LP. The variables z(i,s)z(i,s)z(i,s) summarize a policy, NF is what makes constraint (4) depend only on the distribution and not on the policy, and HI is what makes the objective linear in zzz. The reverse direction, Proposition 10, rebuilds a policy from zzz through an induction over rounds in which the survival probability must be tracked exactly.

Formalization scope

  • Finite outcome space. Secretaries and ranks are Fin n, 0-based: Lean secretary iii is the paper's i+1i+1i+1, and Lean rank n−1n-1n−1 is the paper's top rank nnn. The signal space SSS is a finite type, so every probability is a finite sum. Continuous signals (the paper's Example 2, S=R\mathcal S=\mathbb RS=R) and the non-NF Example 11 are out of scope. Ties are allowed, as in §2.
  • Information and policies. The information at round iii is the comparison table ra≤rbr_a\le r_bra​≤rb​ for a,b≤ia,b\le ia,b≤i together with the signals s0,…,sis_0,\dots,s_is0​,…,si​. A policy is a function of this information only and never sees the outcome. Policies are randomized, with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; the competitors in Theorem 8 range over all of them.
  • Conditioning. NF, HI, (2), (3) and the reconstruction claim are written cross-multiplied, so a null conditioning event imposes nothing. c(i,s,j,s′)c(i,s,j,s')c(i,s,j,s′) is a quotient that Lean sets to 000 when P[Ti,si=s]=0\mathbb P[T_i,s_i=s]=0P[Ti​,si​=s]=0; there a(i,s)=0a(i,s)=0a(i,s)=0, so the objective is unaffected.
  • Optimality is stated as existence of a valid memoryless policy that beats every valid policy, not as a supremum. The paper presupposes that an optimum exists; with SSS finite it does.
  • Departures from the page. Proposition 10 additionally asserts that the realizing policy is memoryless; this is the proof of Theorem 8's own observation about the policy (6). Proposition 9 is stated for every policy, as printed.
  • Not trivial. A Memoryless predicate that allowed dependence on the whole information, or a winning probability without the survival product, would make the goal empty. Neither is used here: a memoryless policy is a function of (i,1Ti,si)(i,\mathbf 1_{T_i},s_i)(i,1Ti​​,si​) only, and the winning probability includes ∏j<i(1−qj)\prod_{j<i}(1-q_j)∏j<i​(1−qj​).
  • Welcome contributions. Lemmas on the finite probability calculus (prob, expectOn, cross-multiplied conditioning) and the identity ∏j<i(1−qj)=1−∑j<iqj∏k<j(1−qk)\prod_{j<i}(1-q_j)=1-\sum_{j<i}q_j\prod_{k<j}(1-q_k)∏j<i​(1−qj​)=1−∑j<i​qj​∏k<j​(1−qk​) are reusable well beyond this mission. Proving the milestones in the order listed follows the paper's proof. The running time of the LP and the paper's plots are out of scope.

Selected references

  • P. Dütting, S. Lattanzi, R. Paes Leme, S. Vassilvitskii, Secretaries with Advice, arXiv:2011.06726v1, 2020; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.06726
  • E. B. Dynkin, The optimum choice of the instant for stopping a Markov process, Soviet Mathematics Doklady 4, 1963.
  • J. P. Gilbert, F. Mosteller, Recognizing the maximum of a sequence, Journal of the American Statistical Association 61, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1966.10502008
  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, M. Singh, Secretary problems via linear programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0604
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Linear OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Secretaries with Advice 4: With Advice from a Binary Classifier, a Threshold Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Why binary advice matters

The classical secretary problem asks a decision maker to choose the best of nnn candidates arriving in random order. A decision must be made when each candidate arrives, before later candidates are seen. In the classical model the decision maker sees only comparisons with earlier candidates. In hiring and selection, a prediction system may also classify an arriving candidate as promising or unpromising. The question is then whether the entire history of comparisons and predictions must be retained to make an optimal decision. Dütting, Lattanzi, Paes Leme, and Vassilvitskii study this question for several advice models in Secretaries with Advice. This mission concerns their binary-classifier model and the structural conclusion of Theorem 19: two signal-dependent time thresholds suffice.

The no-information secretary problem is a special case in which the signal says YYY and NNN with equal probability regardless of candidate quality. A separate classical cutoff-rule problem on Prove2Me addresses a deterministic rule for that special case; the present target covers informative and uninformative classifiers and compares with randomized policies that may use all observed history. The result is known mathematically in the cited paper. The task here is to give its probability model and the structural theorem precise, checkable statements in Lean.

Setting

There are n≥1n\geq1n≥1 candidates. Their ranks are a uniformly random permutation of {1,…,n}\{1,\ldots,n\}{1,…,n}, with rank nnn uniquely best. At round iii, the decision maker learns how candidate iii compares with all earlier candidates and receives a binary signal si∈{Y,N}s_i\in\{Y,N\}si​∈{Y,N}. The classifier has recall ppp: the best candidate receives YYY with probability ppp. It has specificity p′p'p′: every other candidate receives NNN with probability p′p'p′. Both parameters lie in [1/2,1][1/2,1][1/2,1]. Conditional on the ranks, signals across candidates are independent, as used by the paper's calculation of the signal-history distribution in Example 5 and Section 2.2. The decision maker never observes absolute ranks.

A policy assigns a stopping probability between zero and one to every possible information state at every round. Its information consists of all relative comparisons among candidates seen so far and all signals seen so far. Once it stops, it cannot act again. It wins if it stops at the unique candidate of rank nnn. The winning probability therefore includes the probability of continuing through all earlier rounds. A candidate is best so far when its rank is at least that of every previously seen candidate.

A threshold policy chooses two rounds tY,tN∈{1,…,n}t_Y,t_N\in\{1,\ldots,n\}tY​,tN​∈{1,…,n}. It accepts the first best-so-far candidate arriving at or after tYt_YtY​ if the current signal is YYY, or at or after tNt_NtN​ if it is NNN. A policy can finish without selecting anyone; that outcome loses. Thresholds govern when a signal becomes acceptable, while the best-so-far condition still depends on the observed comparisons.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 19. For every positive nnn and every p,p′∈[1/2,1]p,p'\in[1/2,1]p,p′∈[1/2,1], there are thresholds tY,tNt_Y,t_NtY​,tN​ such that, for every valid randomized history-dependent policy qqq,

\Pr(\text{win under }q) \leq \Pr(\text{win under threshold}$t_Y,t_N$).

The thresholds are chosen once for the model, before the competing policy qqq. Their order is not constrained by this theorem. The later asymptotic result, Theorem 20, studies the positions and relative order of thresholds and belongs to a separate mission.

The supporting targets follow the paper's route to this conclusion. Section 2.2 computes the chance that the current candidate is globally best after an observed information state. Section 6 identifies the binary model's factor-revealing linear program. Appendix C asserts that its backward-defined dual vector is monotone in time and optimal among dual-feasible vectors. Proposition 12 converts those dual properties into an optimal threshold policy. Each statement concerns the same (n,p,p′)(n,p,p')(n,p,p′) model fixed above.

What the result supplies

The theorem reduces an optimization over policies that can use every past comparison and signal to a search over two time thresholds. It says that remembering the earlier signals and relative-order pattern cannot increase the achievable chance of selecting the best candidate once the two thresholds are chosen. This is a structural result about policy form; it does not give the numerical values of the best thresholds or their large-nnn performance. The paper treats those questions separately in Theorem 20.

A formal development would also give reusable finite objects: a joint rank-and-signal probability model, the information available to an online policy, an exact winning-probability expression, and the primal and dual programs for binary advice. The target theorems in this proposal are open Lean statements with sorry; compilation checks their types, not their proofs. The paper supplies mathematical arguments, while the machine-checked proofs remain work for solvers. The local published uniform-average definition for rank permutations is relevant prior art, but this model uses its own weighted outcome sum because it also averages over the dependent signal law.

Where the difficulty lies

The available history is much larger than a pair of thresholds: it includes all earlier classifier outputs and the complete relative order observed so far. A direct comparison of a given policy with a threshold policy must account for the chance that the policy would already have stopped at an earlier round. Simply comparing the current stopping probabilities does not preserve the winning probability. The paper organizes those reach probabilities through a finite linear program and examines a dual vector defined backward from the last round. The remaining difficulty is to connect the properties of that vector to a policy with the claimed stopping behavior, including parameter values where some constraints are tight at equality.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin n for rounds and ranks. Its index zero is the paper's round one; formulas containing (1/i) use a natural round number in {1,…,n}\{1,\ldots,n\}{1,…,n}. Bool.true represents YYY. Every rank order is a permutation, so there are no ties. Each outcome weight is (1/n!) times the product of the conditional signal likelihoods. All expectations and event masses are finite sums, and conditional-probability claims are stated by cross-multiplying event masses, including at information states of zero probability. The LP is indexed only by positive rounds, so its divisions by iii and nnn have the intended values.

The universal competitor in Theorem 19 is a randomized policy whose input contains only observed comparisons and signals. Its winning probability has an explicit product of continuation probabilities over earlier rounds. This restriction and product prevent the result from becoming trivial by allowing the policy to see the future, identify the global best rank, or stop more than once. The parameter interval and n≥1n\geq1n≥1 are explicit hypotheses. The printed conditional-probability fractions in Section 2.2 omit a factor of the current round iii; the formal milestone uses the corrected value and records the discrepancy. The classifier's ppp is recall as defined in Example 5, despite a later use of the word “precision” in Section 6.

The scope includes the finite probability model, its LP coefficients, the greedy dual vector, and the optimality bridge. Solvers can contribute proofs of the event identities, dual feasibility and optimality, and the threshold conclusion. Running-time claims for an LP algorithm, plots, and Theorem 20's asymptotic limit are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • Paul Dütting, Silvio Lattanzi, Renato Paes Leme, and Sergei Vassilvitskii, Secretaries with Advice, arXiv preprint arXiv:2011.06726v1, 2020; later published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024. Pinned preprint.
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