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Operations Research

2,633 missions · 1,368 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

Missions

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Dynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs 2: With a Common Generating Function, a Looser Information Relaxation Gives a Weaker Dual BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

Many stochastic dynamic programs in operations research, such as inventory control with partially observed demand or the pricing of American options, are too large to solve exactly. A heuristic policy gives a lower bound on the optimal expected reward; to judge whether it is good enough one needs an upper bound. Brown, Smith and Sun (Oper. Res. 2010) build such bounds by information relaxation: let the decision maker see more than she would in reality, and charge a penalty for using the extra information. The construction generalizes the martingale duality for optimal stopping of Haugh and Kogan (Oper. Res. 2004), Rogers (Math. Finance 2002) and Andersen and Broadie (Manage. Sci. 2004).

In applications, the analyst chooses both the relaxation and the penalty, trading the quality of the bound against the cost of computing it. Proposition 2.3 of the paper collects four properties that govern this choice. The first is the subject of this mission.

Setting

Uncertainty is a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P), and decisions are made in periods t=0,…,Tt=0,\dots,Tt=0,…,T. The natural filtration F=(F0,…,FT)\mathbb F=(\mathcal F_0,\dots,\mathcal F_T)F=(F0​,…,FT​) records what is known in each period, with F0={∅,Ω}\mathcal F_0=\{\emptyset,\Omega\}F0​={∅,Ω}. An action sequence is a=(a0,…,aT)a=(a_0,\dots,a_T)a=(a0​,…,aT​), chosen from feasible sets At(a0,…,at−1)A_t(a_0,\dots,a_{t-1})At​(a0​,…,at−1​). Period rewards rt(a0,…,at)r_t(a_0,\dots,a_t)rt​(a0​,…,at​) are Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable random variables and the total reward is r(a)=∑trt(a)r(a)=\sum_t r_t(a)r(a)=∑t​rt​(a).

A policy is a map α:Ω→A\alpha:\Omega\to Aα:Ω→A from outcomes to feasible action sequences. It is adapted to a filtration G\mathbb GG if the period-ttt action is Gt\mathcal G_tGt​-measurable; AG\mathcal A_{\mathbb G}AG​ denotes these policies. A filtration G\mathbb GG with Ft⊆Gt⊆F\mathcal F_t\subseteq\mathcal G_t\subseteq\mathcal FFt​⊆Gt​⊆F for all ttt is a relaxation of F\mathbb FF, written F⊆G\mathbb F\subseteq\mathbb GF⊆G. A penalty is a function z(a,ω)z(a,\omega)z(a,ω); it is dual feasible if E[z(αF)]≤0\mathbb E[z(\alpha_F)]\le0E[z(αF​)]≤0 for every αF∈AF\alpha_F\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}αF​∈AF​. For any relaxation G\mathbb GG and dual feasible zzz, the dual bound

sup⁡αG∈AGE[r(αG)−z(αG)]\sup_{\alpha_G\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb G}}\mathbb E\big[r(\alpha_G)-z(\alpha_G)\big]αG​∈AG​sup​E[r(αG​)−z(αG​)]

is at least the optimal value sup⁡αF∈AFE[r(αF)]\sup_{\alpha_F\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb F}}\mathbb E[r(\alpha_F)]supαF​∈AF​​E[r(αF​)] (weak duality, Lemma 2.1).

The paper's main source of penalties is Proposition 2.2. Given generating functions wt(a)w_t(a)wt​(a) depending only on a0,…,ata_0,\dots,a_ta0​,…,at​, set

zt(a)=E[wt(a)∣Gt]−E[wt(a)∣Ft],z(a)=∑t=0Tzt(a).z_t(a)=\mathbb E[w_t(a)\mid\mathcal G_t]-\mathbb E[w_t(a)\mid\mathcal F_t],\qquad z(a)=\sum_{t=0}^T z_t(a).zt​(a)=E[wt​(a)∣Gt​]−E[wt​(a)∣Ft​],z(a)=t=0∑T​zt​(a).

Such a penalty has zero mean along every nonanticipative policy, and its dual bound is computed by the backward recursion (10), the Bellman recursion with rewards rt−ztr_t-z_trt​−zt​ and conditional expectations given Gt\mathcal G_tGt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.3(i)

For filtrations F⊆G1⊆G2\mathbb F\subseteq\mathbb G^1\subseteq\mathbb G^2F⊆G1⊆G2 and one common sequence of generating functions (w0,…,wT)(w_0,\dots,w_T)(w0​,…,wT​), let ziz^izi be the Proposition 2.2 penalty of (Gi,w)(\mathbb G^i,w)(Gi,w). Then

sup⁡αG∈AG1E[r(αG)−z1(αG)]≤sup⁡αG∈AG2E[r(αG)−z2(αG)].(12)\sup_{\alpha_G\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb G^1}}\mathbb E\big[r(\alpha_G)-z^1(\alpha_G)\big]\le\sup_{\alpha_G\in\mathcal A_{\mathbb G^2}}\mathbb E\big[r(\alpha_G)-z^2(\alpha_G)\big].\qquad(12)αG​∈AG1​sup​E[r(αG​)−z1(αG​)]≤αG​∈AG2​sup​E[r(αG​)−z2(αG​)].(12)

With a common generating function, a looser relaxation gives a weaker bound.

Milestones

  1. Equation (10). For a Proposition 2.2 penalty under a relaxation G\mathbb GG, the expectation of the initial dual value function V0GV^{\mathbb G}_0V0G​ equals the dual bound.
  2. Proposition 2.3(ii). For dual feasible z1,z2z^1,z^2z1,z2 and one relaxation G\mathbb GG, the difference of the two dual bounds lies between inf⁡αGE[z2(αG)−z1(αG)]\inf_{\alpha_G}\mathbb E[z^2(\alpha_G)-z^1(\alpha_G)]infαG​​E[z2(αG​)−z1(αG​)] and sup⁡αGE[z2(αG)−z1(αG)]\sup_{\alpha_G}\mathbb E[z^2(\alpha_G)-z^1(\alpha_G)]supαG​​E[z2(αG​)−z1(αG​)], eq. (13).
  3. Proposition 2.3(iii). For F⊆F′⊆G\mathbb F\subseteq\mathbb F'\subseteq\mathbb GF⊆F′⊆G, the penalty zt(a)=E[wt(a)∣Gt]−E[wt(a)∣Ft′]z_t(a)=\mathbb E[w_t(a)\mid\mathcal G_t]-\mathbb E[w_t(a)\mid\mathcal F'_t]zt​(a)=E[wt​(a)∣Gt​]−E[wt​(a)∣Ft′​] still satisfies the conclusions of Proposition 2.2.
  4. Proposition 2.3(iv). If z^t(a)\hat z_t(a)z^t​(a) are unbiased estimates of the terms zt(a)z_t(a)zt​(a) of a dual feasible penalty, E[z^t(a)∣Gt]=zt(a)\mathbb E[\hat z_t(a)\mid\mathcal G_t]=z_t(a)E[z^t​(a)∣Gt​]=zt​(a), and the relaxation G^\widehat{\mathbb G}G additionally reveals the estimates, then the dual bound of (G,z)(\mathbb G,z)(G,z) is at most that of (G^,z^)(\widehat{\mathbb G},\hat z)(G,z^), eq. (14).

Milestone 1 is on the goal's path; milestones 2–4 are the remaining parts of the same proposition.

Significance

Proposition 2.3(i) tells the analyst how to read a weak bound. If a cheap generating function (for instance wt=0w_t=0wt​=0, the zero penalty) gives a satisfactory bound under some relaxation, it will give a bound at least as tight under any less informative relaxation that still contains F\mathbb FF; conversely, moving to a looser relaxation without improving the generating function can only weaken the bound. Part (ii) is a continuity statement: penalties close to the ideal penalty give bounds close to the optimal value. Part (iii) permits the subtracted conditional expectation to be computed under an intermediate filtration, which the paper uses when volatility is unobserved in its option-pricing example. Part (iv) is the justification for estimating penalties by nested simulation, as in the methods of Haugh–Kogan and Andersen–Broadie: unbiased estimates yield valid, if weaker, upper bounds.

The results are proved in the paper's electronic companion. To our knowledge none of them, nor the information-relaxation duality framework itself, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires a usable theory of policies adapted to a filtration, penalties evaluated along random action sequences, and backward recursions with conditional expectations, all of which are reusable for other duality results in stochastic dynamic programming.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for (12) compares the two suprema policy by policy: AG1⊆AG2\mathcal A_{\mathbb G^1}\subseteq\mathcal A_{\mathbb G^2}AG1​⊆AG2​. This fails, because the two bounds use different penalties: for a fixed G1\mathbb G^1G1-adapted policy, E[z1(α)]\mathbb E[z^1(\alpha)]E[z1(α)] and E[z2(α)]\mathbb E[z^2(\alpha)]E[z2(α)] need not agree, so the larger policy set alone does not order the bounds. The penalty changes with the relaxation exactly so as to remove part of the value of the extra information, and the statement asserts that it never removes more than that information is worth. Even the representation (10) of a dual bound by a backward recursion is nontrivial: it requires near-optimal actions to be selected measurably in every period.

In Lean, the further difficulty is the composition of an action-indexed family of conditional expectations with a random action: ω↦zt(α(ω))(ω)\omega\mapsto z_t(\alpha(\omega))(\omega)ω↦zt​(α(ω))(ω), where each zt(a)z_t(a)zt​(a) is only defined almost surely. Countability of the action set is what makes this composite well defined up to null sets.

Formalization scope

Periods are Fin (T + 1); an action sequence is a function Fin (T + 1) → X for one countable action type X with the discrete σ-algebra (the disjoint union of the per-period action sets). Filtrations are Mathlib Filtrations of the ambient σ-algebra; a relaxation is 𝔽 ≤ 𝔾. Policies are maps Ω → (Fin (T + 1) → X) with values in the feasible set, adapted when each action is measurable for the corresponding σ-algebra. Conditional expectations are Mathlib's μ[f | m], so identities between them hold almost surely. Dual bounds are suprema in EReal over the adapted policy sets, so an infinite bound is represented and no junk value 000 arises from an unbounded supremum.

Pinned regularity, beyond the paper's text: period rewards and generating functions are uniformly bounded (almost surely for the latter) and measurable, so that every expectation exists; in part (iv), the estimates are measurable and uniformly bounded. In part (ii), the difference of two dual bounds is taken in EReal, and the case where both bounds are +∞+\infty+∞ (where the page's difference is undefined) is excluded.

The penalties z1,z2z^1,z^2z1,z2 of the goal are computed from www by the formula of Proposition 2.2; stating the goal for arbitrary penalties with Proposition 2.2's properties would be a different and false claim. Likewise G^\widehat{\mathbb G}G in part (iv) is constructed from G\mathbb GG and the estimates.

The definitions duplicate those of mission 1 of this series (the framework, the recursive model, the penalty construction); they are expected to be merged. Contributions of reusable lemmas about adapted policies over countable action sets and about backward recursions with conditional expectations are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. B. Brown, J. E. Smith, P. Sun, Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs, Operations Research, Articles in Advance, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0796
  • M. B. Haugh, L. Kogan, Pricing American Options: A Duality Approach, Operations Research 52(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0070
  • L. Andersen, M. Broadie, Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options, Management Science 50(9), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0258
  • L. C. G. Rogers, Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options, Mathematical Finance 12(3), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.02010
10 thms1 active userReviewed
AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Continuous-Time Average-Preserving Opinion Dynamics with Opinion-Dependent Communications 3: The n-Agent Model Approximates the Continuum Model Uniformly on Every Finite HorizonResearch Paper

Motivation

Bounded-confidence models describe a population of agents who repeatedly average their opinions with those of agents whose opinions are close to their own. They are used to study consensus and polarization in opinion formation, and in control as a primitive for decentralized rendezvous of mobile agents. Simulations of these models show a robust phenomenon: opinions converge to clusters, and the distances between clusters are typically close to twice the confidence radius rather than just above it. For finitely many agents this regularity has resisted proof.

V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx and J. N. Tsitsiklis (SIAM J. Control Optim. 48 (2010) 5214–5240) study a continuous-time version of the model in two forms: with nnn discrete agents, and with a continuum of agents indexed by [0,1][0,1][0,1]. For the continuum they prove that regular initial opinions converge to clusters whose separation obeys a lower bound depending on the cluster weights. To transfer such conclusions to finitely many agents one needs to know that the nnn-agent model is close to the continuum model when nnn is large. Section 4 of the paper proves this on every finite time horizon. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Discrete agents. There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 agents with real opinions ξi(t)\xi_i(t)ξi​(t), t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Agents iii and jjj interact when ∣ξi−ξj∣<1|\xi_i-\xi_j|<1∣ξi​−ξj​∣<1. A solution of (2.1) is a continuous ξ:[0,∞)→Rn\xi:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb R^nξ:[0,∞)→Rn with

ξi(t)=ξi(0)+∫0t∑j: ∣ξi(τ)−ξj(τ)∣<1(ξj(τ)−ξi(τ)) dτ\xi_i(t)=\xi_i(0)+\int_0^t\sum_{j:\,|\xi_i(\tau)-\xi_j(\tau)|<1}\bigl(\xi_j(\tau)-\xi_i(\tau)\bigr)\,d\tauξi​(t)=ξi​(0)+∫0t​j:∣ξi​(τ)−ξj​(τ)∣<1∑​(ξj​(τ)−ξi​(τ))dτ

for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and all iii. The right-hand side is discontinuous when the interaction graph changes, so the integral form is used. A solution is proper if it is the unique solution from its initial value, its non-differentiability times have no accumulation point, and two agents that meet stay together.

Continuum agents. Agents are indexed by α∈I=[0,1]\alpha\in I=[0,1]α∈I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure. YYY is the set of bounded measurable functions I→RI\to\mathbb RI→R. For m,M>0m,M>0m,M>0, XmMX_m^MXmM​ is the set of nondecreasing x~\tilde xx~ with m≤x~(β)−x~(α)β−α≤Mm\le\frac{\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha)}{\beta-\alpha}\le Mm≤β−αx~(β)−x~(α)​≤M for β≠α\beta\ne\alphaβ=α; such x~\tilde xx~ are regular. The interaction operator is

L(x~)(α)=∫I1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1] (x~(γ)−x~(α)) dγ,\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\alpha)=\int_I \mathbf 1\bigl[|\tilde x(\alpha)-\tilde x(\gamma)|<1\bigr]\,\bigl(\tilde x(\gamma)-\tilde x(\alpha)\bigr)\,d\gamma ,L(x~)(α)=∫I​1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1](x~(γ)−x~(α))dγ,

and a solution of (3.2) from x~0\tilde x_0x~0​ is a measurable x:(α,t)↦xt(α)x:(\alpha,t)\mapsto x_t(\alpha)x:(α,t)↦xt​(α) with every xt∈Yx_t\in Yxt​∈Y and xt(α)=x~0(α)+∫0tL(xτ)(α) dτx_t(\alpha)=\tilde x_0(\alpha)+\int_0^t\mathcal L(x_\tau)(\alpha)\,d\tauxt​(α)=x~0​(α)+∫0t​L(xτ​)(α)dτ for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and all α∈I\alpha\in Iα∈I.

The embedding. For ξ∈Rn\xi\in\mathbb R^nξ∈Rn, G(ξ)G(\xi)G(ξ) is the step function with G(ξ)(α)=ξiG(\xi)(\alpha)=\xi_iG(ξ)(α)=ξi​ on [i−1n,in)[\frac{i-1}n,\frac in)[ni−1​,ni​) and G(ξ)(1)=ξnG(\xi)(1)=\xi_nG(ξ)(1)=ξn​. It distributes the nnn agents over nnn blocks of III of length 1/n1/n1/n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (finite-horizon approximation)

Let x~0∈XmM\tilde x_0\in X_m^Mx~0​∈XmM​, xxx the solution of (3.2) from x~0\tilde x_0x~0​, and for each n≥1n\ge1n≥1 let ξ⟨n⟩\xi^{\langle n\rangle}ξ⟨n⟩ be a proper solution of (2.1) with nondecreasing ξ⟨n⟩(0)\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(0)ξ⟨n⟩(0) and ∥G(ξ⟨n⟩(0))−x~0∥∞→0\|G(\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(0))-\tilde x_0\|_\infty\to0∥G(ξ⟨n⟩(0))−x~0​∥∞​→0. Then for every TTT and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is n′n'n′ with

∥G(ξ⟨n⟩(t/n))−xt∥∞≤ε(t∈[0,T], n≥n′).\bigl\|G\bigl(\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(t/n)\bigr)-x_t\bigr\|_\infty\le\varepsilon\qquad(t\in[0,T],\ n\ge n').​G(ξ⟨n⟩(t/n))−xt​​∞​≤ε(t∈[0,T], n≥n′).

The statement fixes no rate in nnn and no dependence of n′n'n′ on TTT; it asserts only uniform convergence on bounded time intervals.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: for x~∈Xm\tilde x\in X_mx~∈Xm​ and y~∈Y\tilde y\in Yy~​∈Y, ∥L(x~)−L(y~)∥∞≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~∥∞\|\mathcal L(\tilde x)-\mathcal L(\tilde y)\|_\infty\le(2+8/m)\|\tilde x-\tilde y\|_\infty∥L(x~)−L(y~​)∥∞​≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~​∥∞​.
  2. Theorem 4, left inequality of (3.7): a solution from x~0∈XmM\tilde x_0\in X_m^Mx~0​∈XmM​ satisfies xt(β)−xt(α)≥me−t(β−α)x_t(\beta)-x_t(\alpha)\ge m e^{-t}(\beta-\alpha)xt​(β)−xt​(α)≥me−t(β−α) for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0, α<β\alpha<\betaα<β.
  3. Proposition 4: for every ε,T>0\varepsilon,T>0ε,T>0 there is δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that every solution yyy of (3.2) with ∥y0−x~0∥∞≤δ\|y_0-\tilde x_0\|_\infty\le\delta∥y0​−x~0​∥∞​≤δ satisfies ∥yt−xt∥∞≤ε\|y_t-x_t\|_\infty\le\varepsilon∥yt​−xt​∥∞​≤ε on [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  4. Embedding (Section 4): if ξ\xiξ solves (2.1), then (α,t)↦G(ξ(t/n))(α)(\alpha,t)\mapsto G(\xi(t/n))(\alpha)(α,t)↦G(ξ(t/n))(α) solves (3.2) from G(ξ(0))G(\xi(0))G(ξ(0)).

Significance

The theorem says that the continuum model is the large-population limit of the nnn-agent model over any fixed time window. Combined with the paper's continuum convergence result (Theorem 6), it supports the paper's Conjecture 1 on intercluster distances for finitely many agents, and it is the first step of the paper's Proposition 5, which derives Conjecture 1 for random initial opinions from a stability conjecture for the continuum. It is a mean-field limit for a model whose interaction kernel is discontinuous, where standard Lipschitz mean-field arguments do not apply directly.

All four results and the goal are proved in the paper (with the time-scale correction described below). None of them has a machine-checked proof that this mission is aware of. The formalization contributes a checked continuous-dependence estimate for a discontinuous integral equation, a checked statement that the finite-agent dynamics embed in the continuum dynamics, and a precise record of the time normalization under which the two models agree.

Difficulty

The operator L\mathcal LL is not Lipschitz on YYY: moving one opinion across the confidence threshold changes the interaction set discontinuously. The obvious Gronwall argument for continuous dependence therefore fails for two arbitrary solutions. It works only around a trajectory that stays in some Xm′X_{m'}Xm′​, where few agents sit near the threshold, which is why the lower slope bound must hold at every time and not only at time 000. The perturbed trajectory, coming from nnn agents, is a step function and is never regular, so the estimate must be one-sided in this sense.

A literal reading of the page also fails. The page writes G(ξ⟨n⟩(t))G(\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(t))G(ξ⟨n⟩(t)), but for α\alphaα in block iii the continuum interaction L(G(ξ))(α)\mathcal L(G(\xi))(\alpha)L(G(ξ))(α) equals 1n\frac1nn1​ times the discrete right-hand side of (2.1). With x~0(α)=α/2\tilde x_0(\alpha)=\alpha/2x~0​(α)=α/2 and ξi⟨n⟩(0)=x~0(i/n)\xi^{\langle n\rangle}_i(0)=\tilde x_0(i/n)ξi⟨n⟩​(0)=x~0​(i/n), both models are linear; at t=1t=1t=1 the sup distance between G(ξ⟨n⟩(1))G(\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(1))G(ξ⟨n⟩(1)) and x1x_1x1​ tends to e−1/4e^{-1}/4e−1/4. The discrete time must be rescaled by 1/n1/n1/n.

Formalization scope

Namespace BHTOpinion.Approx. Agents of the discrete model are Fin n (0-based); the continuum index set is Set.Icc (0:ℝ) 1 with Lebesgue measure. Opinion functions are ℝ → ℝ, of which only the values on III matter; trajectories are written x t α, time first, with time in ℝ and explicit t≥0t\ge0t≥0 guards. In 0-based form, G(ξ)(α)=ξmin⁡(⌊nα⌋,n−1)G(\xi)(\alpha)=\xi_{\min(\lfloor n\alpha\rfloor,n-1)}G(ξ)(α)=ξmin(⌊nα⌋,n−1)​ on III; for n=0n=0n=0 the definition returns 000, and every statement assumes n≥1n\ge1n≥1.

Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • Sup norms are written pointwise over III, including α=1\alpha=1α=1: a bound at every α∈I\alpha\in Iα∈I, never a real supremum.
  • "lim⁡n→∞∥G(ξ⟨n⟩(0))−x~0∥∞=0\lim_{n\to\infty}\|G(\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(0))-\tilde x_0\|_\infty=0limn→∞​∥G(ξ⟨n⟩(0))−x~0​∥∞​=0" is: for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 there is NNN such that the pointwise bound δ\deltaδ holds for all n≥Nn\ge Nn≥N.
  • "There exists n′n'n′" is an explicit ∃ n′\exists\,n'∃n′ with the bound for all n≥n′n\ge n'n≥n′, t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T], α∈I\alpha\in Iα∈I.
  • "The solution xxx" of (3.2) is any solution from x~0\tilde x_0x~0​; the theorem holds for each.
  • "Proper initial condition, admitting a unique solution" is kept as printed: uniqueness from ξ⟨n⟩(0)\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(0)ξ⟨n⟩(0), finitely many non-differentiability times on every bounded interval, agents that meet stay together.
  • Solutions of (2.1) and (3.2) require the time integrand to be integrable; Lean's integral of a non-integrable function is 000.
  • The labelled correction: the discrete trajectory enters as ξ⟨n⟩(t/n)\xi^{\langle n\rangle}(t/n)ξ⟨n⟩(t/n) in the embedding claim and in Theorem 7. Equivalently, the page's statement holds for the weighted model (2.4) with weights 1/n1/n1/n; only the rescaled form is stated.
  • Only the left inequality of (3.7) is a milestone. The right inequality Me4t/mMe^{4t/m}Me4t/m is not used by Section 4.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the hypotheses are satisfied by x~0(α)=α∈X11\tilde x_0(\alpha)=\alpha\in X_1^1x~0​(α)=α∈X11​, the conclusion is not vacuous because GGG is evaluated at n≥1n\ge1n≥1 only, and the perturbed initial values y0y_0y0​ in Proposition 4 range over all of YYY, not over regular functions.

Infrastructure needed: Gronwall's inequality for a sup-norm difference, measure-theoretic bookkeeping for L\mathcal LL on step functions, and a change of variables τ↦τ/n\tau\mapsto\tau/nτ↦τ/n in interval integrals. The Lipschitz estimate on XmX_mXm​ and the slope bound are reusable for any continuum bounded-confidence model. Contributions to any milestone are welcome; the embedding milestone is independent of the other three.

Selected references

  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Continuous-time average-preserving opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent communications, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(8), 2010, 5214–5240. https://doi.org/10.1137/090766188
8 thms1 active userReviewed
CombinatoricsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents 8: When Both Agents Minimize a Maximum of Regular Costs, There Are at Most n_A·n_B + 1 Nondominated PairsResearch Paper

Motivation

In many production and service settings a single resource is shared by several parties, each judging the outcome only by how its own work is treated. Multi-agent scheduling studies this situation. Agnetis, Mirchandani, Pacciarelli and Pacifici (Oper. Res. 52(2), 2004) introduced the two-agent single-machine model in which two agents, A and B, each own a set of jobs and each minimize their own objective. Their paper treats two questions: the constrained problem, minimizing A's objective subject to a bound on B's, and the Pareto problem, describing every schedule that cannot be improved for one agent without hurting the other.

For the Pareto problem the first quantity of interest is the number of distinct trade-offs, because the natural way to compute the whole front is to solve the constrained problem repeatedly with a decreasing bound (the paper's scheme PP, Figure 4, p. 239). Enumeration of this kind is polynomial exactly when the number of nondominated pairs is polynomially bounded. This mission formalizes the paper's bound for the case where both agents minimize a maximum of regular cost functions (§11.1, pp. 239–240).

Setting

Agent A owns the jobs J1A,…,JnAAJ^A_1,\dots,J^A_{n_A}J1A​,…,JnA​A​ and agent B owns J1B,…,JnBBJ^B_1,\dots,J^B_{n_B}J1B​,…,JnB​B​, with nA,nB≥1n_A,n_B\ge1nA​,nB​≥1. Every job jjj has a processing time pj≥0p_j\ge0pj​≥0. All jobs are available at time 000. A schedule σ\sigmaσ is an ordering of all nA+nBn_A+n_BnA​+nB​ jobs; the machine processes them in that order from time 000 without idle time, so the completion time Cj(σ)C_j(\sigma)Cj​(σ) of a job is the sum of the processing times of the jobs up to and including it.

Each A-job carries a cost function fhA:R→Rf^A_h:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RfhA​:R→R and each B-job a cost function fkBf^B_kfkB​, all nondecreasing (regular). The agents' objectives are the maximum costs

fmax⁡A(σ)=max⁡hfhA(ChA(σ)),fmax⁡B(σ)=max⁡kfkB(CkB(σ)).f^A_{\max}(\sigma)=\max_{h} f^A_h\big(C^A_h(\sigma)\big),\qquad f^B_{\max}(\sigma)=\max_{k} f^B_k\big(C^B_k(\sigma)\big).fmaxA​(σ)=hmax​fhA​(ChA​(σ)),fmaxB​(σ)=kmax​fkB​(CkB​(σ)).

This covers the makespan and maximum lateness of each agent as special cases.

A schedule σ\sigmaσ is nondominated if no schedule σˉ\bar\sigmaσˉ satisfies fmax⁡A(σˉ)≤fmax⁡A(σ)f^A_{\max}(\bar\sigma)\le f^A_{\max}(\sigma)fmaxA​(σˉ)≤fmaxA​(σ) and fmax⁡B(σˉ)≤fmax⁡B(σ)f^B_{\max}(\bar\sigma)\le f^B_{\max}(\sigma)fmaxB​(σˉ)≤fmaxB​(σ) with at least one inequality strict. The pair (yA,yB)=(fmax⁡A(σ),fmax⁡B(σ))(y^A,y^B)=(f^A_{\max}(\sigma),f^B_{\max}(\sigma))(yA,yB)=(fmaxA​(σ),fmaxB​(σ)) of a nondominated schedule is a nondominated pair, and the schedule corresponds to that pair. Write N\mathcal NN for the set of nondominated pairs. Different nondominated schedules can share a pair; the problem 1∥fmax⁡A∘fmax⁡B1\|f^A_{\max}\circ f^B_{\max}1∥fmaxA​∘fmaxB​ asks for N\mathcal NN, with one schedule per pair. Job aaa precedes job bbb in σ\sigmaσ if aaa comes before bbb in the ordering.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11.3, corrected (p. 240)

∣N∣≤nA nB+1.|\mathcal N|\le n_A\,n_B+1 .∣N∣≤nA​nB​+1.

The paper prints the bound nAnBn_An_BnA​nB​. It is off by one: with nA=nB=1n_A=n_B=1nA​=nB​=1, unit processing times and fA(t)=fB(t)=tf^A(t)=f^B(t)=tfA(t)=fB(t)=t, the schedules AB and BA give the two nondominated pairs (1,2)(1,2)(1,2) and (2,1)(2,1)(2,1). The goal states nAnB+1n_An_B+1nA​nB​+1, the bound the printed argument supports once the first schedule is counted.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 11.1 (p. 239). For nondominated pairs (yA,yB)(y^A,y^B)(yA,yB), (y~A,y~B)(\tilde y^A,\tilde y^B)(y~​A,y~​B) with yA<y~Ay^A<\tilde y^AyA<y~​A and yB>y~By^B>\tilde y^ByB>y~​B and for a fixed A-job JhAJ^A_hJhA​ and B-job JkBJ^B_kJkB​, there are corresponding nondominated schedules σ,σ~\sigma,\tilde\sigmaσ,σ~ such that if JkBJ^B_kJkB​ precedes JhAJ^A_hJhA​ in σ\sigmaσ, it does so in σ~\tilde\sigmaσ~.
  2. Lemma 11.2 (p. 240). The same, with one pair σ,σ~\sigma,\tilde\sigmaσ,σ~ serving every A-job and every B-job at once.
  3. The exchange claim (proof of Theorem 11.3, p. 240). Two nondominated schedules σ,σ~\sigma,\tilde\sigmaσ,σ~ with fmax⁡A(σ)<fmax⁡A(σ~)f^A_{\max}(\sigma)<f^A_{\max}(\tilde\sigma)fmaxA​(σ)<fmaxA​(σ~) and fmax⁡B(σ~)<fmax⁡B(σ)f^B_{\max}(\tilde\sigma)<f^B_{\max}(\sigma)fmaxB​(σ~)<fmaxB​(σ) differ in the relative order of at least one A-job and one B-job: some JhAJ^A_hJhA​ precedes some JkBJ^B_kJkB​ in σ\sigmaσ, and JkBJ^B_kJkB​ precedes JhAJ^A_hJhA​ in σ~\tilde\sigmaσ~.

Significance

The bound places 1∥fmax⁡A∘fmax⁡B1\|f^A_{\max}\circ f^B_{\max}1∥fmaxA​∘fmaxB​ among the two-agent problems whose Pareto front has polynomially many points. Combined with the polynomial algorithm for the constrained problem 1∥fmax⁡A:fmax⁡B≤Q1\|f^A_{\max}:f^B_{\max}\le Q1∥fmaxA​:fmaxB​≤Q (Theorem 4.1 of the same paper), it means the full front can be listed with polynomially many constrained solves. The structural content is an order statement: as the bound on agent B tightens along the front, B-jobs overtake A-jobs and never fall back, so each of the nAnBn_An_BnA​nB​ (A-job, B-job) pairs changes order at most once. The same question for other pairs of objectives is the subject of later work on multi-agent scheduling, collected in the monograph of Agnetis, Billaut, Gawiejnowicz, Pacciarelli and Soukhal (Springer 2014).

The result is published but, to our knowledge, has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it also fixes the printed off-by-one error in the statement. The overtaking lemmas are of independent use for other pairs of regular min-max objectives.

Difficulty

The obvious argument walks along the front and charges each step to one (A-job, B-job) pair that changes order. Two things must be secured. First, the charged pair must change order in a consistent direction; schedules corresponding to a pair are not unique, and nothing forces two arbitrary representatives of different pairs to agree on the order of the jobs they do not charge. Lemma 11.2 asserts that representatives can be chosen so that no B-job falls back behind an A-job, and establishing it requires control over every job pair simultaneously, not one at a time as in Lemma 11.1. Second, a step must change at least one order. The tempting proof looks at a B-job attaining yBy^ByB and argues that the jobs it overtakes include an A-job; this fails for an arbitrary choice of that B-job, since another B-job with a flatter cost function can be the one that moves. Finally, the count of reversals bounds the number of steps, not the number of pairs; the first pair has to be added.

Formalization scope

Jobs are Fin nA ⊕ Fin nB (Sum.inl h is Jh+1AJ^A_{h+1}Jh+1A​, Sum.inr k is Jk+1BJ^B_{k+1}Jk+1B​, 0-based). A schedule is a duplicate-free list containing every job, and completion times are prefix sums of processing times; this is the published sequence model MooreLateJobs.Shared.completionTime (Moore 1968), reused as a reference item. Processing times are real and nonnegative; costs are real-valued and Monotone; nA,nB≥1n_A,n_B\ge1nA​,nB​≥1 so that both maxima exist. Nondominance compares against all schedules of all jobs. Precedence compares first positions in the list.

The count is over pairs, N⊆R2\mathcal N\subseteq\mathbb R^2N⊆R2, measured with Set.encard, so finiteness is part of the goal. Counting nondominated schedules instead would be a different and false statement: permuting jobs inside a block often leaves both maxima unchanged. The printed bound nAnBn_An_BnA​nB​ is replaced by nAnB+1n_An_B+1nA​nB​+1 and the reason is given in the goal's statement; stating a larger bound "to be safe" or the printed one would make the mission either weaker than the paper's argument or false. The scheme PP and the choice of ϵ\epsilonϵ in it are not formalized; they are the paper's computation device, not part of the theorem. In the exchange claim the paper's σ and σ̃ are schedules of consecutive pairs; the milestone states it for any two nondominated schedules with the two strict inequalities, which includes that case. Running times are not formalized.

A complete development needs elementary facts about completion times when one job is moved within a sequence, the simultaneous statement of Lemma 11.2, and a counting argument along the front. Contributions of reusable lemmas about job moves in the sequence model are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Agnetis, P. B. Mirchandani, D. Pacciarelli, A. Pacifici, Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents, Operations Research 52(2) (2004) 229–242. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0092
  • J. M. Moore, An n Job, One Machine Sequencing Algorithm for Minimizing the Number of Late Jobs, Management Science 15(1) (1968) 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.1.102
  • A. Agnetis, J.-C. Billaut, S. Gawiejnowicz, D. Pacciarelli, A. Soukhal, Multiagent Scheduling: Models and Algorithms, Springer, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-41880-8
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Dynamic ProgrammingOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing with Loss-Averse Consumers and Peak-End Anchoring: Every Optimal Price Path Converges Monotonically to a Steady State Set by the Initial Minimum PriceResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that change prices over time face customers who remember past prices. A large empirical literature in marketing documents reference price effects: demand depends not only on the current price but on how that price compares with a price the customer expects, and losses (prices above the reference) weigh more than gains of the same size, the loss aversion of prospect theory (Tversky and Kahneman 1991; Kalyanaram and Winer 1995). Most dynamic pricing models with reference effects form the reference price by exponential smoothing of past prices (Popescu and Wu 2007; Kopalle, Rao and Assunção 1996; Fibich, Gavious and Lowengart 2003).

Psychology suggests a different memory process. Under the peak-end rule (Kahneman et al. 1993), people evaluate a past sequence of experiences mainly by its most extreme and its most recent episode. Nasiry and Popescu (INSEAD Working Paper 2009/20/DS/TOM; published in Operations Research 59(6), 2011) build a dynamic pricing model in which the reference price is a weighted average of the lowest price seen so far and the last price, and characterize the firm's optimal long-run and transient pricing. This mission formalizes the core of that analysis: the steady states (Section 3.1) and the convergence of optimal price paths (Section 3.2).

Setting

A firm sets a price ptp_tpt​ in the price set P=[0,pˉ]\mathbf P = [0,\bar p]P=[0,pˉ​] in every period t=1,2,…t = 1,2,\dotst=1,2,…. The base demand d0d_0d0​ is non-negative, bounded, continuous and decreasing on P\mathbf PP, with d0(pˉ)=0d_0(\bar p) = 0d0​(pˉ​)=0, and the base profit π0(p)=p d0(p)\pi_0(p) = p\,d_0(p)π0​(p)=pd0​(p) is non-monotone and strictly concave (Assumption 1). With sensitivities λ≥γ>0\lambda\ge\gamma>0λ≥γ>0 to surcharges and discounts, demand at price ppp and reference price rrr is

d(p,r)=d0(p)−λ(p−r)++γ(r−p)+,d(p,r) = d_0(p) - \lambda(p-r)^+ + \gamma(r-p)^+,d(p,r)=d0​(p)−λ(p−r)++γ(r−p)+,

and the short-term profit is π(p,r)=p d(p,r)\pi(p,r) = p\,d(p,r)π(p,r)=pd(p,r). It equals min⁡(πλ,πγ)\min(\pi_\lambda,\pi_\gamma)min(πλ​,πγ​) of the two smooth profits πk(p,r)=π0(p)+k(r−p)p\pi_k(p,r) = \pi_0(p) + k(r-p)pπk​(p,r)=π0​(p)+k(r−p)p.

Given an initial minimum price m0m_0m0​ and last price p0p_0p0​, the minimum price evolves as mt=min⁡(mt−1,pt)m_t = \min(m_{t-1},p_t)mt​=min(mt−1​,pt​) and the peak-end reference price is

rt=θmt−1+(1−θ)pt−1,θ∈(0,1].r_t = \theta m_{t-1} + (1-\theta)p_{t-1},\qquad \theta\in(0,1].rt​=θmt−1​+(1−θ)pt−1​,θ∈(0,1].

With discount factor β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), the firm's value function is

J(m0,p0)=sup⁡pt∈P ∑t=1∞βt−1π(pt,rt).J(m_0,p_0) = \sup_{p_t\in\mathbf P}\ \sum_{t=1}^\infty \beta^{t-1}\pi(p_t,r_t).J(m0​,p0​)=pt​∈Psup​ t=1∑∞​βt−1π(pt​,rt​).

An optimal price path is a price sequence in P\mathbf PP attaining J(m0,p0)J(m_0,p_0)J(m0​,p0​); a steady state is a state (m,p)(m,p)(m,p), m≤pm\le pm≤p, from which the constant path pt≡pp_t\equiv ppt​≡p is optimal.

Two thresholds organize the answer. Let sss and SSS be the roots in P\mathbf PP of

π0′(p)−λ(1−β(1−θ))p=0(9),π0′(p)−γ(1−β)p=0(10),\pi_0'(p) - \lambda(1-\beta(1-\theta))p = 0 \quad (9),\qquad \pi_0'(p) - \gamma(1-\beta)p = 0 \quad (10),π0′​(p)−λ(1−β(1−θ))p=0(9),π0′​(p)−γ(1−β)p=0(10),

so that s≤Ss\le Ss≤S, and let R1=[0,s]\mathbf R_1 = [0,s]R1​=[0,s], R2=[s,S]\mathbf R_2 = [s,S]R2​=[s,S], R3=[S,pˉ]\mathbf R_3 = [S,\bar p]R3​=[S,pˉ​]. For m∈R1m\in\mathbf R_1m∈R1​, let pλ∗∗(m)p^{**}_\lambda(m)pλ∗∗​(m) be the root of

π0′(p)−λ(2−(1−θ)(1+β))p+λθm=0.(12)\pi_0'(p) - \lambda(2-(1-\theta)(1+\beta))p + \lambda\theta m = 0. \quad (12)π0′​(p)−λ(2−(1−θ)(1+β))p+λθm=0.(12)

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

For every initial state (m0,p0)(m_0,p_0)(m0​,p0​) with m0≤p0m_0\le p_0m0​≤p0​ in P\mathbf PP, an optimal price path exists, and every optimal price path {pt}t≥1\{p_t\}_{t\ge1}{pt​}t≥1​ is monotone and converges:

pt⟶{pλ∗∗(m0),m0∈R1,m0,m0∈R2,S,m0∈R3.p_t \longrightarrow \begin{cases} p^{**}_\lambda(m_0), & m_0\in\mathbf R_1,\\ m_0, & m_0\in\mathbf R_2,\\ S, & m_0\in\mathbf R_3.\end{cases}pt​⟶⎩⎨⎧​pλ∗∗​(m0​),m0​,S,​m0​∈R1​,m0​∈R2​,m0​∈R3​.​

The limit depends only on the initial minimum price.

Milestones

In attack order: monotonicity of JJJ (Lemma 1); the identity π=min⁡(πλ,πγ)\pi=\min(\pi_\lambda,\pi_\gamma)π=min(πλ​,πγ​) and supermodularity of π\piπ (Lemma 2); the upper bounds J(m,p)≤Jmν(p)J(m,p)\le J^\nu_m(p)J(m,p)≤Jmν​(p) by smooth problems with one-dimensional state (Lemma 3); the unique steady state of each smooth problem (Lemma 4); two families of steady states (Lemma 5); the full set of steady states

{(m,pλ∗∗(m))∣m∈R1}∪{(m,m)∣m∈R2}\{(m,p^{**}_\lambda(m)) \mid m\in\mathbf R_1\}\cup\{(m,m)\mid m\in\mathbf R_2\}{(m,pλ∗∗​(m))∣m∈R1​}∪{(m,m)∣m∈R2​}

(Proposition 1); Claims 1–4 and the invariance of the regions (Proposition 2: pt≥m0p_t\ge m_0pt​≥m0​ when m0≤Sm_0\le Sm0​≤S, and mt≥Sm_t\ge Smt​≥S when m0≥Sm_0\ge Sm0​≥S); and Claim 5 (for p0>m0≥Sp_0>m_0\ge Sp0​>m0​≥S the price eventually falls to m0m_0m0​ or below).

Significance

The result gives a complete description of optimal pricing under peak-end anchoring with loss-averse consumers. A continuum of steady states exists, and the one reached is set by the remembered minimum price alone. A firm facing a low minimum price raises prices toward pλ∗∗(m0)>m0p^{**}_\lambda(m_0)>m_0pλ∗∗​(m0​)>m0​; with an intermediate minimum it settles exactly at that minimum; with a high minimum it cuts prices down to SSS and then holds them there. Optimal paths are monotone, so the model predicts no cyclical discounting under loss aversion. The comparison with Popescu and Wu (2007) in Section 3.3 of the paper and the robustness results of later sections (heterogeneous markets, non-linear reference effects) build on these statements.

The paper's results are proved on paper; none is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked model of a non-smooth, two-dimensional dynamic program defined directly as a supremum over price sequences, the reduction of its steady states to smooth one-dimensional bounds, and the convergence theorem.

Difficulty

Both the per-period profit (through the kink at p=rp=rp=r) and the state transition (through min⁡(mt−1,pt)\min(m_{t-1},p_t)min(mt−1​,pt​)) are non-smooth, so neither the Euler equation nor standard concavity arguments for the value function apply directly. The Bellman objective need not be concave in the price, and the value function is not differentiable on the diagonal m=pm=pm=p. Supermodularity of π\piπ yields monotone optimal policies only within a region where the minimum price stays fixed, and showing that the state never leaves its initial region (Proposition 2) is itself a comparison of optimal paths against steady states. Existence of an optimal path is needed in its own right, because the value function is a supremum over an infinite-dimensional set.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in PeakEndPricing.Convergence. Conventions fixed in Lean:

  • A price path is a sequence q:N→Rq:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rq:N→R with q(n)=pn+1q(n) = p_{n+1}q(n)=pn+1​; p0p_0p0​ is the initial last price. minPrice m0 q n is mnm_nmn​ and refPrice at index nnn is the reference price rn+1r_{n+1}rn+1​ faced by q(n)q(n)q(n).
  • JJJ and the value JmνJ^\nu_mJmν​ of the smooth Problem (8) are suprema over sequences in [0,pˉ][0,\bar p][0,pˉ​] of tsums, never "a solution of the Bellman equation". On the domain of the theorems all series converge and the families are bounded, so the junk values of ⨆ and ∑' are not reached.
  • Steady states of (7) and (8) are optimal constant paths; equations (11) and (12) appear only as conclusions.
  • The profit is defined by (4)–(5); π=min⁡(πλ,πγ)\pi = \min(\pi_\lambda,\pi_\gamma)π=min(πλ​,πγ​) is part of Lemma 2, not a definition.
  • Explicit hypotheses the paper uses implicitly: π0\pi_0π0​ is differentiable at every point of P\mathbf PP (for π0′\pi_0'π0′​ in (9)–(12)); m0,p0∈Pm_0,p_0\in\mathbf Pm0​,p0​∈P and m0≤p0m_0\le p_0m0​≤p0​ (the state space, p. 12); sss and SSS are given roots in P\mathbf PP of (9) and (10), and pλ∗∗(m)p^{**}_\lambda(m)pλ∗∗​(m) is represented as a root in P\mathbf PP of (12).
  • "The optimal path": the paper treats the optimal policy as single-valued. The goal asserts existence of an optimal path and states monotonicity and convergence for every optimal path; the claims and Proposition 2 are likewise stated for every optimal path.
  • Correction: the regions R‾1a\overline{\mathbf R}_{1a}R1a​ and R‾1b\overline{\mathbf R}_{1b}R1b​ printed on p. 11 have their inequalities swapped relative to their use in the proofs of Claims 1–2 and on p. 14. Claims 1 and 2 are stated with explicit inequalities, m0≤p0≤pλ∗∗(m0)m_0\le p_0\le p^{**}_\lambda(m_0)m0​≤p0​≤pλ∗∗​(m0​) and p0≥pλ∗∗(m0)p_0\ge p^{**}_\lambda(m_0)p0​≥pλ∗∗​(m0​), and the regions are not defined.
  • Monotonicity ("increasing", "monotonically") is weak throughout. The "in particular" sentence of Proposition 1 is read as comparative statics of the steady-state price p**_λ(m) for a fixed m ∈ R_1 (the reading of its proof on p. 45). Corollary 1 is not formalized.

A goal stated without the existence of an optimal path would hold vacuously if no path attained JJJ; existence is therefore part of the goal. Contributions are welcome on general infrastructure that is reusable beyond this mission: existence of optimal paths for discounted problems over compact action sets, the principle of optimality for sequence formulations, and Topkis-type monotonicity of optimal paths for supermodular objectives.

Selected references

  • J. Nasiry and I. Popescu, Dynamic Pricing with Loss Averse Consumers and Peak-End Anchoring, INSEAD Working Paper 2009/20/DS/TOM, 2009; Operations Research 59(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1110.0952
  • I. Popescu and Y. Wu, Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects, Operations Research 55(3):413–429, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0383
  • D. Kahneman, B. L. Fredrickson, C. A. Schreiber and D. A. Redelmeier, When More Pain Is Preferred to Less: Adding a Better End, Psychological Science 4(6):401–405, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9280.1993.tb00589.x
  • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model, Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(4):1039–1061, 1991. https://doi.org/10.2307/2937956
  • G. Kalyanaram and R. S. Winer, Empirical Generalizations from Reference Price Research, Marketing Science 14(3):G161–G169, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.14.3.G161
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Control TheoryProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing with a Prior on Market Response: Decay-Balancing Prices Earn at Least One Third of the Optimal Expected Discounted RevenueResearch Paper

Pricing while learning demand

A vendor holding a finite stock of a product must set prices over time without knowing how many customers will come. Each price does two things: it earns revenue now, and through the sales it generates it reveals information about demand that improves future prices. This tension between earning and learning is central in revenue management with demand uncertainty, in retail markdown pricing, and in online selling. Optimal Bayesian policies for such problems are characterized by a Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation that has no closed-form solution, so practice relies on heuristics, and the question is which heuristics come with guarantees.

Farias and Van Roy introduced decay balancing and proved that, for exponentially distributed reservation prices and a Gamma prior on the arrival rate, it earns at least one third of the optimal expected discounted revenue, uniformly over all problem parameters (V. F. Farias, B. Van Roy, Dynamic Pricing with a Prior on Market Response, Operations Research 58(1):16–29, 2010, doi:10.1287/opre.1090.0729). They describe it as the first heuristic for problems of this type with a uniform performance guarantee. This mission formalizes that guarantee and the chain of results leading to it. The source is the authors' manuscript of January 20, 2009 (MIT DSpace); its printed page numbers coincide with the PDF page numbers, and all theorem and page numbers below refer to it.

The model

Customers arrive according to a Poisson process with rate λ\lambdaλ. Each has an independent reservation price with density fff and tail Fˉ(p)=1−F(p)\bar F(p) = 1-F(p)Fˉ(p)=1−F(p); a customer facing price ppp buys one unit if it is available and ppp is at most his reservation price, and otherwise leaves. The hazard rate is ρ(p)=f(p)/Fˉ(p)\rho(p) = f(p)/\bar F(p)ρ(p)=f(p)/Fˉ(p). Assumption 1 (p. 5) asks that fff be differentiable with support R+\mathbb R_+R+​ and that ρ\rhoρ be non-decreasing. The exponential law with mean rrr has Fˉ(p)=e−p/r\bar F(p) = e^{-p/r}Fˉ(p)=e−p/r.

The vendor starts with xxx units and a Gamma prior on λ\lambdaλ with shape aaa and rate bbb (density baλa−1e−λb/Γ(a)b^a\lambda^{a-1}e^{-\lambda b}/\Gamma(a)baλa−1e−λb/Γ(a), mean μ(z)=a/b\mu(z) = a/bμ(z)=a/b). After ntn_tnt​ sales the posterior is Gamma with at=a+nta_t = a+n_tat​=a+nt​ and bt=b+∫0tFˉ(ps) dsb_t = b+\int_0^t\bar F(p_s)\,dsbt​=b+∫0t​Fˉ(ps​)ds, so the state is z=(x,a,b)z = (x,a,b)z=(x,a,b). A policy π(x,a,b)≥0\pi(x,a,b)\ge0π(x,a,b)≥0 sets the price; the expected discounted revenue at rate α>0\alpha>0α>0 is

Jπ(z)=Ez,π[∑k: tk≤τ0e−αtkptk−],J∗(z)=sup⁡πJπ(z),J^\pi(z) = E_{z,\pi}\Big[\sum_{k:\,t_k\le\tau_0}e^{-\alpha t_k}p_{t_k-}\Big],\qquad J^*(z) = \sup_\pi J^\pi(z),Jπ(z)=Ez,π​[k:tk​≤τ0​∑​e−αtk​ptk​−​],J∗(z)=πsup​Jπ(z),

the supremum over all measurable non-negative policies. With λ\lambdaλ known, the same problem has value Jλ∗(x)J^*_\lambda(x)Jλ∗​(x). Assumption 2 (p. 9) asks that Jλ∗(x)J^*_\lambda(x)Jλ∗​(x) be differentiable in λ\lambdaλ.

Decay balancing uses the approximation J~(z)=E[Jλ∗(x)]\tilde J(z) = E[J^*_\lambda(x)]J~(z)=E[Jλ∗​(x)], λ∼Gamma(a,b)\lambda\sim\mathrm{Gamma}(a,b)λ∼Gamma(a,b), and posts the price πdb(z)\pi_{\rm db}(z)πdb​(z) solving the balance equation (5), p. 13,

Fˉ(πdb(z))ρ(πdb(z)) μ(z)=αJ~(z).\frac{\bar F(\pi_{\rm db}(z))}{\rho(\pi_{\rm db}(z))}\,\mu(z) = \alpha\tilde J(z).ρ(πdb​(z))Fˉ(πdb​(z))​μ(z)=αJ~(z).

The optimal price π∗(z)\pi^*(z)π∗(z) solves the same equation with J∗(z)J^*(z)J∗(z) in place of J~(z)\tilde J(z)J~(z). The constant

κ(a)=aΓ(a)Γ(a+1)−Γ(a+1,a)+aΓ(a,a),Γ(s,y)=∫y∞ts−1e−t dt,\kappa(a) = \frac{a\Gamma(a)}{\Gamma(a+1)-\Gamma(a+1,a)+a\Gamma(a,a)},\qquad \Gamma(s,y) = \int_y^\infty t^{s-1}e^{-t}\,dt,κ(a)=Γ(a+1)−Γ(a+1,a)+aΓ(a,a)aΓ(a)​,Γ(s,y)=∫y∞​ts−1e−tdt,

measures the cost of uncertainty for a prior of shape aaa.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 24)

For exponential reservation prices with mean r>0r>0r>0, every α>0\alpha>0α>0, x>1x>1x>1, a>0a>0a>0, b>0b>0b>0:

J∗(z)<∞andJπdb(z)J∗(z) ≥ 13.J^*(z)<\infty\qquad\text{and}\qquad \frac{J^{\pi_{\rm db}}(z)}{J^*(z)}\ \ge\ \frac13 .J∗(z)<∞andJ∗(z)Jπdb​(z)​ ≥ 31​.

Milestones

In attack order:

  1. Known-rate value. Lemma 2: Jλ∗(x)J^*_\lambda(x)Jλ∗​(x) is increasing and concave in λ\lambdaλ.
  2. Bounds and well-posedness. Lemma 3 gives J∗≤J~≤Jμ(z)∗(x)≤Fˉ(p∗)p∗μ(z)/αJ^*\le\tilde J\le J^*_{\mu(z)}(x)\le\bar F(p^*)p^*\mu(z)/\alphaJ∗≤J~≤Jμ(z)∗​(x)≤Fˉ(p∗)p∗μ(z)/α. Lemma 4 says the balance equation has a unique solution. Lemma E.6(2), with Theorems E.1–E.2, says the balance-price policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal.
  3. Normalizations. Lemma 5 rescales the discount rate and Lemma 10 rescales the mean reservation price.
  4. No-learning comparison. Lemmas 7 and 8, and Theorem 1: Jnl(z)≥Ja/b∗(x)/κ(a)J^{nl}(z)\ge J^*_{a/b}(x)/\kappa(a)Jnl(z)≥Ja/b∗​(x)/κ(a).
  5. Quality of the approximation. 1≥J∗(z)/J~(z)≥1/κ(a)1\ge J^*(z)/\tilde J(z)\ge1/\kappa(a)1≥J∗(z)/J~(z)≥1/κ(a), and κ\kappaκ is decreasing.
  6. Prices and revenues. Corollary 1: 1/(1+log⁡κ(a))≤πdb/π∗≤11/(1+\log\kappa(a))\le\pi_{\rm db}/\pi^*\le11/(1+logκ(a))≤πdb​/π∗≤1. Lemma 9: Jub≥J∗J^{ub}\ge J^*Jub≥J∗. Theorem 2: 1/(1+log⁡κ(a))≤Jπdb/J∗≤11/(1+\log\kappa(a))\le J^{\pi_{\rm db}}/J^*\le11/(1+logκ(a))≤Jπdb​/J∗≤1.
  7. Inventory. Lemma 12: J∗(x,a,b)≤2.05 J∗(x−1,a,b)J^*(x,a,b)\le2.05\,J^*(x-1,a,b)J∗(x,a,b)≤2.05J∗(x−1,a,b) for x>1x>1x>1, a>1a>1a>1.

Significance

Theorem 2 gives a guarantee that depends only on the coefficient of variation 1/a1/\sqrt a1/a​ of the prior. Theorem 3 removes even that dependence for exponential reservation prices: whatever the inventory, prior, discount rate and price scale, decay balancing loses at most a factor of three. The analysis also yields reusable facts about Bayesian pricing: knowing the rate helps (J∗≤J~J^*\le\tilde JJ∗≤J~), the decay-balance characterization of optimal prices, and comparison with a vendor who does not learn.

All results are proved in the source, using Dynkin's formula, an HJB verification argument (Appendix E) and a coupling of sales processes. None of them is machine-checked. The mission asks for a formal development of the known proofs.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 3 would chain Theorem 2 at the initial state. That fails because κ(a)\kappa(a)κ(a) blows up as a→0a\to0a→0, so for a diffuse prior Theorem 2 gives no constant bound. The paper instead compares the two systems only up to the first sale, after which the shape parameter is at least a+1>1a+1>1a+1>1. This needs two things: a coupling in which the optimal system never sells first, and Lemma 12, which bounds the value of one extra unit without a decreasing-returns property in xxx (none is known). Lemma 12 itself rests on a numerical inequality involving the Lambert WWW function.

At the foundational level, neither Mathlib nor the platform has a counting process whose intensity is a random rate times a state-feedback price. Defining JπJ^\piJπ and J∗J^*J∗ faithfully is part of the mission.

Formalization scope

  • Sales process. The process is built exactly in the b-clock. Given λ\lambdaλ, sales are a rate-λ\lambdaλ Poisson process in the variable bbb, so λ∼Gamma(a,b)\lambda\sim\mathrm{Gamma}(a,b)λ∼Gamma(a,b) and i.i.d. Exp(1)\mathrm{Exp}(1)Exp(1) clocks EjE_jEj​ give the bbb-values of the sales, Bj+1=Bj+Ej+1/λB_{j+1} = B_j + E_{j+1}/\lambdaBj+1​=Bj​+Ej+1​/λ. The real-time length of each stage is ∫dβ/Fˉ(π(⋅,β))\int d\beta/\bar F(\pi(\cdot,\beta))∫dβ/Fˉ(π(⋅,β)).
  • Values. Revenue is the sum over sales of the discounted pre-sale price (p. 6; the compensated-integral form of p. 7 is equal to it). Values and suprema live in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. J∗J^*J∗ and Jλ∗J^*_\lambdaJλ∗​ are suprema over policies; they are never defined by the HJB equation or by the Lambert-WWW formula (2). Such a definition would trivialize the mission and is ruled out.
  • Policies. Policies are non-negative, measurable in (a,b)(a,b)(a,b), and Markov in zzz. π∗\pi^*π∗ and πdb\pi_{\rm db}πdb​ are the balance prices of p. 13, not "some optimal policy".
  • Prior and normalizations. The prior is a single Gamma, the case of §6; bbb is a rate. The general statements carry Assumptions 1 and 2. Statements are made for general α>0\alpha>0α>0 and r>0r>0r>0, as p. 18 claims, not under the normalizations α=e−1\alpha = e^{-1}α=e−1, r=1r = 1r=1.
  • Ratios. Ratio bounds are stated multiplicatively, together with finiteness of J∗J^*J∗. This rules out the vacuous reading J∗=∞J^* = \inftyJ∗=∞.
  • Added hypotheses and corrections.
    • Lemma 4 is false as printed at x=0x = 0x=0 (J~=0\tilde J = 0J~=0 while Fˉ/ρ>0\bar F/\rho>0Fˉ/ρ>0), so x≥1x\ge1x≥1 is added. Its location claim p≥p∗p\ge p^*p≥p∗ (proof, p. 35) is included.
    • Corollary 1 needs x≥1x\ge1x≥1, because the prices are undefined at x=0x=0x=0.
    • The logit halves of Corollary 1 and Theorem 2 are not stated: the logit family is never defined, contradicts Assumption 1, and comes with the rounded constant 1.27.
    • Lemma 9 uses general α\alphaα where p. 21 has α=e−1\alpha = e^{-1}α=e−1.
    • Lemma 2's "increasing" is strict for x≥1x\ge1x≥1.
    • Appendix E is represented by Lemma E.6(2), p. 47: the balance-price (greedy) policy attains J∗J^*J∗. The if-and-only-if of Theorem E.2 over all policies is not stated, since the generator HπH^\piHπ is not formalized.
  • Not included. The integrated form of Lemma 11 (the first-sale coupling bound) is not a milestone; it is the natural next target. Lemma 6, Appendix D and the Lambert-WWW identities are out of scope.

Reusable pieces are the Gamma–Poisson sales process in the b-clock, the incomplete Gamma function, and the known-rate pricing problem. Proofs of any milestone, of the p. 6 revenue identity, and of Assumptions 1–2 for the exponential law are welcome.

Related platform work in other models: Gallego–van Ryzin known-demand pricing (GVRPricing), Talluri–van Ryzin (RevenueManagement), Bitran–Caldentey (PricingRM.DetHeuristic), and the Bayesian bounds of Satia–Lave (SatiaLave.Bayes).

Selected references

  • V. F. Farias, B. Van Roy, Dynamic Pricing with a Prior on Market Response, Operations Research 58(1):16–29, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0729 (manuscript of January 20, 2009, MIT DSpace: https://dspace.mit.edu)
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • V. F. Araman, R. Caldentey, Dynamic Pricing for Nonperishable Products with Demand Learning, Operations Research 57(5):1169–1188, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0669
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9477-8
20 thms1 active userReviewed
Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

An Augmented Lagrangian Based Algorithm for Distributed Nonconvex Optimization 2: Near a Regular KKT Point the Decoupled Subproblems Have Locally Unique Minimizers with ‖y−x*‖ ≤ χ₁‖x−x*‖+χ₂‖λ−λ*‖Research Paper

Motivation

Many large optimization problems arising in networked control, smart grids, distributed estimation and resource allocation have a separable objective with coupled affine constraints: NNN agents each own a variable xix_ixi​ and a private cost fif_ifi​, and only a linear constraint ∑iAixi=b\sum_i A_ix_i=b∑i​Ai​xi​=b ties them together. Distributed algorithms for such problems let each agent solve a small local problem and exchange only a few aggregated quantities. For convex problems the standard method is the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM), which converges at a linear rate; for nonconvex problems ADMM can diverge (Houska, Frasch and Diehl give a two-variable example in §2 of their paper).

Houska, Frasch and Diehl (SIAM J. Optim. 26 (2016)) proposed ALADIN (augmented Lagrangian based alternating direction inexact Newton method), which combines the decoupled augmented-Lagrangian subproblems of ADMM with a coupled equality-constrained quadratic program borrowed from sequential quadratic programming (SQP). Their local convergence analysis (§7) rests on one stability result for the decoupled subproblems, Lemma 3, which this mission formalizes. Similar statements are classical for augmented Lagrangian methods: Bertsekas analyzes minimizers of augmented Lagrangians under perturbation of the multiplier (Constrained Optimization and Lagrange Multiplier Methods, 1982, Prop. 4.2.3), and Nocedal and Wright give a related analysis (Numerical Optimization, 2nd ed., 2006, Thm. 17.6).

Setting

Problem (1.1). Given fi:Rn→Rf_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rfi​:Rn→R, hi:Rn→Rnhh_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^{n_h}hi​:Rn→Rnh​, Ai∈Rm×nA_i\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}Ai​∈Rm×n (i=1,…,Ni=1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N) and b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm,

min⁡x ∑i=1Nfi(xi)s.t.∑i=1NAixi=b,hi(xi)≤0  (i=1,…,N).\min_{x}\ \sum_{i=1}^N f_i(x_i)\qquad\text{s.t.}\qquad \sum_{i=1}^N A_ix_i=b,\qquad h_i(x_i)\le 0\ \ (i=1,\dots,N).xmin​ i=1∑N​fi​(xi​)s.t.i=1∑N​Ai​xi​=b,hi​(xi​)≤0  (i=1,…,N).

All fif_ifi​ and hih_ihi​ are twice continuously differentiable (the paper's standing assumption in §3). The multiplier of the coupling constraint is λ∈Rm\lambda\in\mathbb R^mλ∈Rm, that of hi(xi)≤0h_i(x_i)\le0hi​(xi​)≤0 is κi∈Rnh\kappa_i\in\mathbb R^{n_h}κi​∈Rnh​.

A KKT point (x∗,λ∗,κ)(x^*,\lambda^*,\kappa)(x∗,λ∗,κ) is feasible, satisfies ∇fi(xi∗)+Ai⊤λ∗+∑jκij∇hij(xi∗)=0\nabla f_i(x^*_i)+A_i^\top\lambda^*+\sum_j\kappa_{ij}\nabla h_{ij}(x^*_i)=0∇fi​(xi∗​)+Ai⊤​λ∗+∑j​κij​∇hij​(xi∗​)=0 for every iii, and has κ≥0\kappa\ge0κ≥0 with κijhij(xi∗)=0\kappa_{ij}h_{ij}(x^*_i)=0κij​hij​(xi∗​)=0. It is regular if

  • LICQ holds: the rows of [A1⋯AN][A_1\cdots A_N][A1​⋯AN​] and the block gradients of the active constraints hij(xi∗)=0h_{ij}(x^*_i)=0hij​(xi∗​)=0 are linearly independent in RNn\mathbb R^{Nn}RNn;
  • strict complementarity holds: κij>0\kappa_{ij}>0κij​>0 on every active constraint;
  • the second-order sufficient condition holds: ∑idi⊤∇2[fi+κi⊤hi](xi∗)di>0\sum_i d_i^\top\nabla^2[f_i+\kappa_i^\top h_i](x^*_i)d_i>0∑i​di⊤​∇2[fi​+κi⊤​hi​](xi∗​)di​>0 for every nonzero ddd in the critical subspace {∑iAidi=0, ∇hij(xi∗)⊤di=0 on active (i,j)}\{\sum_iA_id_i=0,\ \nabla h_{ij}(x^*_i)^\top d_i=0 \text{ on active }(i,j)\}{∑i​Ai​di​=0, ∇hij​(xi∗​)⊤di​=0 on active (i,j)}.

The decoupled subproblems. In step 1 of ALADIN, given the current primal and dual iterates (x,λ)(x,\lambda)(x,λ), a penalty ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 and positive semidefinite scaling matrices Σi\Sigma_iΣi​, agent iii solves

min⁡yi fi(yi)+λ⊤Aiyi+ρ2∥yi−xi∥Σi2s.t.hi(yi)≤0,(3.2)\min_{y_i}\ f_i(y_i)+\lambda^\top A_iy_i+\frac\rho2\|y_i-x_i\|_{\Sigma_i}^2\qquad\text{s.t.}\qquad h_i(y_i)\le 0, \tag{3.2}yi​min​ fi​(yi​)+λ⊤Ai​yi​+2ρ​∥yi​−xi​∥Σi​2​s.t.hi​(yi​)≤0,(3.2)

with ∥v∥Σ2=v⊤Σv\|v\|_{\Sigma}^2=v^\top\Sigma v∥v∥Σ2​=v⊤Σv. These problems are nonconvex in general and are solved to local optimality.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3 (p. 1117)

Let x∗x^*x∗ be a local minimizer of (1.1) with (x∗,λ∗,κ)(x^*,\lambda^*,\kappa)(x∗,λ∗,κ) a regular KKT point, and let ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 satisfy

∇2[fi+κi⊤hi](xi∗)+ρΣi≻0(i=1,…,N).\nabla^2\big[f_i+\kappa_i^\top h_i\big](x^*_i)+\rho\Sigma_i\succ 0\qquad(i=1,\dots,N).∇2[fi​+κi⊤​hi​](xi∗​)+ρΣi​≻0(i=1,…,N).

Then for every sufficiently small ball N\mathcal NN of radius ε\varepsilonε around the origin of RNn×Rm\mathbb R^{Nn}\times\mathbb R^mRNn×Rm there are constants χ,χ1,χ2<∞\chi,\chi_1,\chi_2<\inftyχ,χ1​,χ2​<∞ such that for all (x,λ)(x,\lambda)(x,λ) with (x−x∗,λ−λ∗)∈N(x-x^*,\lambda-\lambda^*)\in\mathcal N(x−x∗,λ−λ∗)∈N the problems (3.2) have local minimizers y=(y1,…,yN)y=(y_1,\dots,y_N)y=(y1​,…,yN​), unique in {x∗}⊕χN\{x^*\}\oplus\chi\mathcal N{x∗}⊕χN, with

∥y−x∗∥ ≤ χ1∥x−x∗∥+χ2∥λ−λ∗∥.\|y-x^*\|\ \le\ \chi_1\|x-x^*\|+\chi_2\|\lambda-\lambda^*\| .∥y−x∗∥ ≤ χ1​∥x−x∗∥+χ2​∥λ−λ∗∥.

The constants are not specified: the goal asserts only the shape of the estimate, not values of χ1,χ2\chi_1,\chi_2χ1​,χ2​.

Milestones (steps of the paper's proof, p. 1117)

  1. The Hessians ∇2[fi+κ′⊤hi](ξ)+ρΣi\nabla^2[f_i+\kappa'^\top h_i](\xi)+\rho\Sigma_i∇2[fi​+κ′⊤hi​](ξ)+ρΣi​ remain positive definite for (ξ,κ′)(\xi,\kappa')(ξ,κ′) near (xi∗,κi)(x^*_i,\kappa_i)(xi∗​,κi​).
  2. At (x,λ)=(x∗,λ∗)(x,\lambda)=(x^*,\lambda^*)(x,λ)=(x∗,λ∗), xi∗x^*_ixi∗​ is a stationary point with multiplier κi\kappa_iκi​ and a strict local minimizer of the iii-th subproblem: ξi(x∗,λ∗)=xi∗\xi_i(x^*,\lambda^*)=x^*_iξi​(x∗,λ∗)=xi∗​.
  3. Near (x∗,λ∗)(x^*,\lambda^*)(x∗,λ∗) the subproblems have locally unique local minimizers ξi(x,λ)\xi_i(x,\lambda)ξi​(x,λ) depending continuously differentiably on (x,λ)(x,\lambda)(x,λ).
  4. If χ1>∥∂xξ∥\chi_1>\|\partial_x\xi\|χ1​>∥∂x​ξ∥ and χ2>∥∂λξ∥\chi_2>\|\partial_\lambda\xi\|χ2​>∥∂λ​ξ∥ at (x∗,λ∗)(x^*,\lambda^*)(x∗,λ∗), then ∥ξ(x,λ)−ξ(x∗,λ∗)∥≤χ1∥x−x∗∥+χ2∥λ−λ∗∥\|\xi(x,\lambda)-\xi(x^*,\lambda^*)\|\le\chi_1\|x-x^*\|+\chi_2\|\lambda-\lambda^*\|∥ξ(x,λ)−ξ(x∗,λ∗)∥≤χ1​∥x−x∗∥+χ2​∥λ−λ∗∥ locally.

Significance

Lemma 3 is the bridge between ALADIN and the local theory of SQP. Once the decoupled minimizers are known to exist, to be locally unique, and to stay within a linear distance of x∗x^*x∗, the full-step variant of ALADIN behaves locally like an inexact SQP method, and the paper derives its local quadratic convergence estimates (with exact Hessians and a suitably large μ\muμ) from this. Without the lemma the local subproblems could jump between distant local minimizers of a nonconvex objective, and no local rate could be claimed.

The result is proved in the paper, in a short paragraph that delegates the main step to the regularity of the KKT point. No machine-checked version of this lemma, of the sensitivity theory of parametric nonlinear programs it rests on, or of ALADIN exists, as far as a search of the Prove2Me catalogue and Mathlib shows. Formalizing it means supplying the argument the paper leaves implicit: a parametric local-minimizer theorem for inequality-constrained problems under LICQ, strict complementarity and a second-order condition.

Difficulty

The obvious argument applies the implicit function theorem to the stationarity condition of (3.2), ∇fi(yi)+Ai⊤λ+ρΣi(yi−xi)=0\nabla f_i(y_i)+A_i^\top\lambda+\rho\Sigma_i(y_i-x_i)=0∇fi​(yi​)+Ai⊤​λ+ρΣi​(yi​−xi​)=0. That works only without inequality constraints. With constraints, the local minimizer satisfies a KKT system involving the multipliers and complementarity, which is not a smooth equation; one has to fix the active set, use strict complementarity to show that it does not change nearby, and use LICQ of the active constraints to make the reduced KKT matrix invertible. The second difficulty is uniqueness: the implicit function theorem gives a unique KKT point near (xi∗,κi)(x^*_i,\kappa_i)(xi∗​,κi​), but the lemma claims uniqueness among local minimizers within a ball in the primal variable alone, so the multipliers of any nearby local minimizer must be shown to lie near κi\kappa_iκi​. Third, the hypothesis is the positive definiteness of ∇2[fi+κi⊤hi]+ρΣi\nabla^2[f_i+\kappa_i^\top h_i]+\rho\Sigma_i∇2[fi​+κi⊤​hi​]+ρΣi​ on all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn, not only on the critical cone; the subproblems inherit their second-order condition from it rather than from the SOSC of (1.1).

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ with Mathlib's sup norm, blocks are indexed by Fin N, matrices are Mathlib Matrix over Fin index types, and λ∈\lambda\inλ∈ Fin m → ℝ. Gradients and Hessians enter through Fréchet derivatives (fderiv), with d⊤∇2g(z)dd^\top\nabla^2g(z)dd⊤∇2g(z)d written fderiv ℝ (fderiv ℝ g) z d d. LICQ is stated as linear independence of the active gradients in RNn\mathbb R^{Nn}RNn. The "sufficiently small open set N\mathcal NN" is read as every ball of radius ε∈(0,ε0]\varepsilon\in(0,\varepsilon_0]ε∈(0,ε0​] in the sup norm of RNn×Rm\mathbb R^{Nn}\times\mathbb R^mRNn×Rm, with χ,χ1,χ2\chi,\chi_1,\chi_2χ,χ1​,χ2​ allowed to depend on ε\varepsilonε but not on (x,λ)(x,\lambda)(x,λ); y∈{x∗}⊕χNy\in\{x^*\}\oplus\chi\mathcal Ny∈{x∗}⊕χN is read through the xxx-component, ∥y−x∗∥<χε\|y-x^*\|<\chi\varepsilon∥y−x∗∥<χε. Local minimizers are local minimizers on the feasible set and are required to be feasible. The hypotheses hi∈C2h_i\in C^2hi​∈C2 and Σi⪰0\Sigma_i\succeq0Σi​⪰0 come from the paper's standing assumptions (§3 and Algorithm 2, step 1).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal keeps all four conclusions (local minimality, membership in the χε\chi\varepsilonχε-ball, uniqueness in that same ball, and the bound), since the bound alone is satisfied by y=x∗y=x^*y=x∗; and it quantifies over every small ball rather than asserting the result for one neighbourhood. The hypotheses are satisfiable: a sorry-free check with N=n=m=nh=1N=n=m=n_h=1N=n=m=nh​=1, f=0f=0f=0, h=−1h=-1h=−1, A=1A=1A=1, b=0b=0b=0, Σ=1\Sigma=1Σ=1, ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1 is in the development.

Needed infrastructure: a parametric implicit-function argument for KKT systems with a fixed active set, persistence of LICQ and of strict complementarity under perturbation, and second-order sufficiency for inequality-constrained problems. These pieces are reusable well beyond this mission, for any sensitivity or local-convergence analysis of nonlinear programs (SQP, augmented Lagrangian, interior-point methods). Proofs of any milestone, alternative routes (for instance via Robinson's strong regularity), and general lemmas on second-order sufficient conditions are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Houska, J. Frasch, M. Diehl, An augmented Lagrangian based algorithm for distributed nonconvex optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 26(2), 1101–1127, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1137/140975991
  • J. Nocedal, S. J. Wright, Numerical Optimization, 2nd ed., Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-40065-5
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Constrained Optimization and Lagrange Multiplier Methods, Academic Press, 1982, Proposition 4.2.3.
  • S. M. Robinson, Strongly regular generalized equations, Math. Oper. Res. 5(1), 43–62, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.5.1.43
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Graph TheoryMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Routing Betweenness Centrality: Under Source-Oblivious Loop-Free Routing, the Betweenness of a Node Sequence Is a Sum over Targets of Chained Pairwise DependenciesResearch Paper

Motivation

Betweenness centrality measures how much of the communication in a network passes through a node. Freeman's original measure (Freeman 1977) counts the fraction of shortest paths between each pair of nodes that pass through it, and Brandes' algorithm (Brandes 2001) made it computable on large graphs. Variants replace shortest paths by maximum flows (Freeman, Borgatti and White 1991), random walks (Newman 2005) or load-splitting rules (Goh, Kahng and Kim 2001), and group variants measure the traffic that passes through a set of nodes (Everett and Borgatti 1999).

Dolev, Elovici and Puzis (technical report 2009, J. ACM 2010) define routing betweenness centrality (RBC): given the actual routing scheme of a communication network and its traffic matrix, the RBC of a node is the expected number of packets that pass through it. Each of the measures above is a special choice of routing scheme. The application is the placement of traffic monitors: the RBC of an ordered sequence of monitors is the expected number of packets sampled by all of them in order, which measures, for example, redundant inspection along a path.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set of nodes. A routing scheme assigns to every source sss, current node uuu, next node vvv and target ttt a number R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t), the probability that uuu forwards to vvv a packet with source address sss and target address ttt. Routing decisions are independent. The scheme is assumed to be

  • nonnegative;
  • total: every node u≠tu\ne tu=t forwards a packet targeted at ttt with total probability one, ∑vR(s,u,v,t)=1\sum_v R(s,u,v,t)=1∑v​R(s,u,v,t)=1, and the target forwards nothing;
  • loop-free: for every pair (s,t)(s,t)(s,t) the directed graph with an arc a→ba\to ba→b whenever R(s,a,b,t)>0R(s,a,b,t)>0R(s,a,b,t)>0 is acyclic;
  • source-oblivious where stated: R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t) does not depend on sss.

A route from sss to ttt is a sequence of nodes from sss to ttt whose every hop has positive forwarding probability; its probability is the product of the hop probabilities. For nodes s,t,vs,t,vs,t,v and a sequence S=(s1,…,sk)S=(s_1,\dots,s_k)S=(s1​,…,sk​):

  • the pairwise dependency δs,t(v)\delta_{s,t}(v)δs,t​(v) is the total probability of the routes from sss to ttt that visit vvv;
  • the sequence dependency δ~s,t(S)\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)δ~s,t​(S) is the total probability of the routes from sss to ttt that visit s1s_1s1​, then s2s_2s2​, …, then sks_ksk​ (consecutive repetitions in SSS collapsed).

A traffic matrix T(s,t)T(s,t)T(s,t) gives the number of packets sent from sss to ttt, and sampling rates ρv∈[0,1]\rho_v\in[0,1]ρv​∈[0,1] give the fraction of passing packets a monitor at vvv samples. The target dependency is δ∙,t(v)=∑sδs,t(v)T(s,t)\delta_{\bullet,t}(v)=\sum_{s}\delta_{s,t}(v)T(s,t)δ∙,t​(v)=∑s​δs,t​(v)T(s,t), and the RBC of the sequence SρS_\rhoSρ​ of distinct nodes is

δ~∙,∙(Sρ)=∏r∈Sρr⋅∑s,t∈Vδ~s,t(S) T(s,t).\tilde\delta_{\bullet,\bullet}(S_\rho)=\prod_{r\in S}\rho_r\cdot\sum_{s,t\in V}\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)\,T(s,t).δ~∙,∙​(Sρ​)=r∈S∏​ρr​⋅s,t∈V∑​δ~s,t​(S)T(s,t).

Formalization targets

Goal: sequence RBC as a sum over targets of chained dependencies

For a source-oblivious scheme and a sequence S=(s1,…,sk)S=(s_1,\dots,s_k)S=(s1​,…,sk​) of distinct nodes, k≥1k\ge1k≥1,

∏r∈Sρr⋅∑s,t∈Vδ~s,t(S) T(s,t)=∑t∈Vδ∙,t(s1) ρs1∏i=1k−1δsi,t(si+1) ρsi+1.\prod_{r\in S}\rho_r\cdot\sum_{s,t\in V}\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)\,T(s,t)=\sum_{t\in V}\delta_{\bullet,t}(s_1)\,\rho_{s_1}\prod_{i=1}^{k-1}\delta_{s_i,t}(s_{i+1})\,\rho_{s_{i+1}}.r∈S∏​ρr​⋅s,t∈V∑​δ~s,t​(S)T(s,t)=t∈V∑​δ∙,t​(s1​)ρs1​​i=1∏k−1​δsi​,t​(si+1​)ρsi+1​​.

The right side is the value returned by the paper's Algorithm 6. The identity contains no running time and no constant: it states the exact equality the algorithm relies on.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1: for a loop-free scheme (not necessarily source-oblivious), two different orderings of the same set of nodes cannot both have positive sequence dependency.
  2. Lemma 1 (Dependency chaining): for s≠ts\ne ts=t, δ~s,t((s1,…,sk))=δs,t(s1)⋅δ~s1,t((s2,…,sk))\tilde\delta_{s,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{s,t}(s_1)\cdot\tilde\delta_{s_1,t}((s_2,\dots,s_k))δ~s,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δs,t​(s1​)⋅δ~s1​,t​((s2​,…,sk​)).
  3. Eq. (16): for s≠ts\ne ts=t, δ~s,t((s1,…,sk))=δs,t(s1)∏i=2kδsi−1,t(si)\tilde\delta_{s,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{s,t}(s_1)\prod_{i=2}^k\delta_{s_{i-1},t}(s_i)δ~s,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δs,t​(s1​)∏i=2k​δsi−1​,t​(si​).
  4. Eq. (17): δ~∙,t((s1,…,sk))=δ∙,t(s1)∏i=2kδsi−1,t(si)\tilde\delta_{\bullet,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{\bullet,t}(s_1)\prod_{i=2}^k\delta_{s_{i-1},t}(s_i)δ~∙,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δ∙,t​(s1​)∏i=2k​δsi−1​,t​(si​).
  5. Eq. (1) (off the goal's path): δs,t(s)=1\delta_{s,t}(s)=1δs,t​(s)=1 and δs,t(v)=∑uδs,t(u)R(s,u,v,t)\delta_{s,t}(v)=\sum_{u}\delta_{s,t}(u)R(s,u,v,t)δs,t​(v)=∑u​δs,t​(u)R(s,u,v,t) for v≠sv\ne sv=s, the sum over predecessors uuu of vvv.
  6. Eq. (9) (off the goal's path): δ∙,t(v)=T(v,t)+∑uδ∙,t(u)R(⊘,u,v,t)\delta_{\bullet,t}(v)=T(v,t)+\sum_u\delta_{\bullet,t}(u)R(\oslash,u,v,t)δ∙,t​(v)=T(v,t)+∑u​δ∙,t​(u)R(⊘,u,v,t) for source-oblivious schemes.

Significance

The goal reduces the RBC of a sequence of kkk monitors to O(nk)O(nk)O(nk) arithmetic on precomputed single-node quantities, instead of a pass over the routing graph of every source–target pair. This is what makes repeated evaluation of candidate monitor sequences, as in greedy or search-based placement, affordable on large networks. Eqs. (1) and (9) are the recursions behind the paper's algorithms for the RBC of single nodes; Eq. (9) replaces the loop over all source–target pairs by a loop over targets.

The paper's proof of Lemma 1 is an argument about conditional probabilities of informally described events. A formalization fixes what "the probability that a packet passes through SSS" means, as a sum over a finite set of routes, and checks the factorization against that definition, including the corner cases the prose passes over: sequences with repeated nodes, a first node equal to the source or to the target, and the source s=ts=ts=t in the sum over all sources. No machine-checked version of these identities is known.

Difficulty

Dependency chaining is a Markov property: after the packet reaches s1s_1s1​, its future does not depend on its past. The obvious argument splits every route through s1s_1s1​ into a prefix ending at s1s_1s1​ and a suffix starting there. Two points need care. First, the suffix must be a route of a packet with source s1s_1s1​, which is where source-obliviousness enters; for source-dependent routing the lemma is false. Second, the prefix probabilities must sum to δs,t(s1)\delta_{s,t}(s_1)δs,t​(s1​) while the suffix probabilities sum to one, which requires that no packet is lost: this is where totality of the forwarding probabilities and loop-freeness (every walk reaches the target in at most ∣V∣|V|∣V∣ steps) are needed. The passage from Lemma 1 to the goal then requires the sum over all sources, including s=ts=ts=t, where Lemma 1 does not apply.

Formalization scope

Nodes form a type V with [Fintype V] [DecidableEq V]; probabilities, traffic and sampling rates are real numbers; sequences are Lean lists, indexed from 000. Routes are repetition-free lists, and every dependency is a finite sum over them; no infinite sums, suprema or measure theory are used. The definitions file bundles the standing assumptions in IsRoutingScheme and source-obliviousness in IsSourceOblivious.

The paper's probabilities are informal. The following readings are explicit:

  • every non-target node forwards with total probability one (implicit in the paper; without it Lemma 1 fails);
  • the target forwards nothing;
  • the paper's convention R(⊘,v,v,⊘)=1R(\oslash,v,v,\oslash)=1R(⊘,v,v,⊘)=1 is not adopted (it contradicts loop-freeness); collapsing consecutive repetitions in SSS reproduces its only use;
  • the "don't care" source ⊘\oslash⊘ of Eq. (9) is an arbitrary fixed node, harmless under source-obliviousness;
  • the printed index slips in Eqs. (16) and (17) are corrected;
  • no sign condition is imposed on TTT; 0≤ρv≤10\le\rho_v\le10≤ρv​≤1 is kept in the goal as on the page.

Defining δ~\tilde\deltaδ~ by the recursion (3) or the product (16), the target sequence dependency by (17), or the sequence RBC as the sum over targets of the chained product would make the goal true by definition; every dependency here is a sum of route probabilities, and the RBC of a sequence is the double sum of Eq. (4).

The running-time claims of the paper are out of scope. Lemma 2 of the paper (p. 17) is false as printed for a nonempty monitor set and is not posed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma that the total route probability from any node is one under a total loop-free scheme (reusable for absorbing Markov chains on finite DAGs), and the prefix–suffix decomposition of routes.

Selected references

  • S. Dolev, Y. Elovici, R. Puzis, Routing Betweenness Centrality, Technical Report #2009-09, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, 2009; J. ACM 57(4), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1145/1734213.1734219
  • L. C. Freeman, A set of measures of centrality based on betweenness, Sociometry 40(1), 1977. https://doi.org/10.2307/3033543
  • U. Brandes, A faster algorithm for betweenness centrality, J. Math. Sociology 25(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2001.9990249
  • L. C. Freeman, S. P. Borgatti, D. R. White, Centrality in valued graphs: a measure of betweenness based on network flow, Social Networks 13, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-8733(91)90017-N
  • M. E. J. Newman, A measure of betweenness centrality based on random walks, Social Networks 27, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.009
  • K.-I. Goh, B. Kahng, D. Kim, Universal behavior of load distribution in scale-free networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.87.278701
  • M. G. Everett, S. P. Borgatti, The centrality of groups and classes, J. Math. Sociology 23(3), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.1999.9990219
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AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Continuous-Time Average-Preserving Opinion Dynamics with Opinion-Dependent Communications 2: Regular Initial Opinions Converge to Clusters with |B − A| ≥ 1 + min{W_A, W_B}/max{W_A, W_B}Research Paper

Motivation

Bounded-confidence opinion dynamics model a population in which each agent repeatedly moves its opinion towards the opinions of those agents whose views lie within a fixed distance of its own. Introduced in discrete time by Krause (1997) and studied as the Hegselmann–Krause model, these systems are a standard test case for multi-agent coordination with state-dependent communication: who talks to whom depends on the current state, so the interaction graph changes over time and the linear consensus theory does not apply. Simulations show that opinions settle into clusters that are further apart than the confidence radius, and that the distances between clusters are larger than the radius would force. Explaining those distances is a long-standing question in the area (Lorenz 2007).

Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2010) study the continuous-time version, first for finitely many agents and then for a continuum of agents. The continuum model is the limit of a large population and captures the intercluster distances observed in simulations. This mission formalizes the continuum part of the paper, Section 3: well-posedness for regular initial opinions, convergence to clusters, and the intercluster distance bound of Theorem 6.

Setting

Agents are indexed by I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure. An opinion function x~:I→R\tilde x : I\to\mathbb Rx~:I→R gives the opinion x~(α)\tilde x(\alpha)x~(α) of agent α\alphaα. Write YYY for the bounded measurable opinion functions and XXX for the nondecreasing bounded ones. For m,M>0m,M>0m,M>0, XmX_mXm​ is the set of x~∈X\tilde x\in Xx~∈X whose increase rate x~(β)−x~(α)β−α\frac{\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha)}{\beta-\alpha}β−αx~(β)−x~(α)​ is at least mmm for all β≠α\beta\ne\alphaβ=α, and XMX^MXM the set with rate at most MMM. A function is regular if it lies in XmM=Xm∩XMX_m^M=X_m\cap X^MXmM​=Xm​∩XM for some m,M>0m,M>0m,M>0; the uniform profile x~(α)=α\tilde x(\alpha)=\alphax~(α)=α is regular.

Two agents are connected when their opinions differ by less than 111. The interaction operator is

L(x~)(α)=∫01χx~(α,γ)(x~(γ)−x~(α)) dγ,χx~(α,γ)=1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1].\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\alpha)=\int_0^1 \chi_{\tilde x}(\alpha,\gamma)\bigl(\tilde x(\gamma)-\tilde x(\alpha)\bigr)\,d\gamma,\qquad \chi_{\tilde x}(\alpha,\gamma)=\mathbf 1\bigl[|\tilde x(\alpha)-\tilde x(\gamma)|<1\bigr].L(x~)(α)=∫01​χx~​(α,γ)(x~(γ)−x~(α))dγ,χx~​(α,γ)=1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1].

Given an initial condition x~0\tilde x_0x~0​, a solution of (3.2) is a measurable x:I×[0,∞)→Rx : I\times[0,\infty)\to\mathbb Rx:I×[0,∞)→R, (α,t)↦xt(α)(\alpha,t)\mapsto x_t(\alpha)(α,t)↦xt​(α), with each xt∈Yx_t\in Yxt​∈Y and

xt(α)=x~0(α)+∫0tL(xτ)(α) dτfor every t≥0 and every α∈I.x_t(\alpha)=\tilde x_0(\alpha)+\int_0^t \mathcal L(x_\tau)(\alpha)\,d\tau\qquad\text{for every } t\ge 0 \text{ and every }\alpha\in I .xt​(α)=x~0​(α)+∫0t​L(xτ​)(α)dτfor every t≥0 and every α∈I.

The differential form (3.1) is ddtxt(α)=L(xt)(α)\frac{d}{dt}x_t(\alpha)=\mathcal L(x_t)(\alpha)dtd​xt​(α)=L(xt​)(α).

FFF is the set of nondecreasing s~\tilde ss~ whose distinct values are pairwise more than 111 apart; Fˉ\bar FFˉ the set of nondecreasing s~\tilde ss~ whose values, for almost every pair of agents, are equal or at least 111 apart. A fixed point is an s~∈X\tilde s\in Xs~∈X for which (3.2) started at s~\tilde ss~ has the unique solution xt=s~x_t=\tilde sxt​=s~. A cluster of s~\tilde ss~ is a value AAA held by a set of agents of positive measure WAW_AWA​, its weight.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

For a regular x~0\tilde x_0x~0​, a solution xxx of (3.2), and s~=lim⁡t→∞xt\tilde s=\lim_{t\to\infty}x_ts~=limt→∞​xt​ almost everywhere: any two distinct clusters A≠BA\ne BA=B of s~\tilde ss~ satisfy

∣B−A∣ ≥ 1+min⁡{WA,WB}max⁡{WA,WB},|B-A|\ \ge\ 1+\frac{\min\{W_A,W_B\}}{\max\{W_A,W_B\}},∣B−A∣ ≥ 1+max{WA​,WB​}min{WA​,WB​}​,

and s~\tilde ss~ agrees almost everywhere with a member of FFF that is a fixed point.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: ∥L(x~)−L(y~)∥∞≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~∥∞\|\mathcal L(\tilde x)-\mathcal L(\tilde y)\|_\infty\le(2+8/m)\|\tilde x-\tilde y\|_\infty∥L(x~)−L(y~​)∥∞​≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~​∥∞​ for x~∈Xm\tilde x\in X_mx~∈Xm​, y~∈Y\tilde y\in Yy~​∈Y.
  2. Lemma 2: −(x~(β)−x~(α))≤L(x~)(β)−L(x~)(α)-(\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha))\le\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\beta)-\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\alpha)−(x~(β)−x~(α))≤L(x~)(β)−L(x~)(α), and ≤2m(x~(β)−x~(α))\le\frac 2m(\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha))≤m2​(x~(β)−x~(α)) on XmX_mXm​.
  3. Theorem 4: for x~0∈XmM\tilde x_0\in X_m^Mx~0​∈XmM​, (3.1) and (3.2) have a unique common solution, with xt(β)−xt(α)β−α≥me−t\frac{x_t(\beta)-x_t(\alpha)}{\beta-\alpha}\ge me^{-t}β−αxt​(β)−xt​(α)​≥me−t and xtx_txt​ regular for every ttt.
  4. Lemma 3: for a nondecreasing solution, ∫0cxt\int_0^c x_t∫0c​xt​ converges for every ccc.
  5. Proposition 2: xt(α)x_t(\alpha)xt​(α) converges outside a countable set of agents.
  6. Proposition 3(a)–(c): a.e. limits lie in Fˉ\bar FFˉ; FFF consists of fixed points; nondecreasing fixed points lie in Fˉ\bar FFˉ.
  7. Theorem 5: xt→y~∈Fˉx_t\to\tilde y\in\bar Fxt​→y~​∈Fˉ almost everywhere, and F⊆{fixed points}⊆FˉF\subseteq\{\text{fixed points}\}\subseteq\bar FF⊆{fixed points}⊆Fˉ.

Significance

Theorem 6 turns the qualitative picture "opinions freeze into clusters at least one unit apart", which already follows from Theorem 5, into a quantitative statement depending on the cluster weights: two clusters of equal weight are at least 222 apart, and a light cluster can sit closer to a heavy one. This matches the intercluster distances observed in simulations of large populations and yields Corollary 1 of the paper, a necessary condition for the stability of an equilibrium in the L1L^1L1 sense. Theorem 4 is of independent interest: the right-hand side of (3.1) is discontinuous in the state, a two-valued initial profile admits two different solutions, and well-posedness holds only under the slope bounds.

The results are proved in the paper. Nothing in this mission has a machine-checked proof yet. Formalizing it means building a small theory of integral equations with a state-dependent, discontinuous kernel on L∞L^\inftyL∞-type spaces of opinion profiles: a contraction argument on short intervals, its continuation, monotone convergence of partial integrals, and an a.e. limit argument with Fatou's lemma and Fubini.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 4, Picard–Lindelöf, fails: L\mathcal LL is not Lipschitz on YYY, because a small perturbation of opinions can switch the connection indicator on a set of positive measure. Lemma 1 restores the Lipschitz property only at functions with a positive increase rate, so existence and uniqueness require a contraction on a carefully chosen set of profiles together with a proof that the dynamics keep the increase rate positive (Lemma 2), and a continuation argument whose step size shrinks as the lower slope decays. For Theorem 6, convergence alone gives only ∣B−A∣≥1|B-A|\ge 1∣B−A∣≥1; the extra min⁡/max⁡\min/\maxmin/max term comes from agents trapped between two clusters, whose existence relies on the continuity in α\alphaα of every xtx_txt​, which the a.e. limit s~\tilde ss~ does not have.

Formalization scope

Opinion functions are ℝ → ℝ, and only their values on Set.Icc 0 1 matter; a trajectory is x : ℝ → ℝ → ℝ with x t α =xt(α)=x_t(\alpha)=xt​(α), time real with t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Lebesgue measure on III is volume.restrict (Set.Icc 0 1), and Fˉ\bar FFˉ uses its product measure. The slope conditions are written multiplied out for α<β\alpha<\betaα<β. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "solution of (3.2)": joint measurability on I×[0,∞)I\times[0,\infty)I×[0,∞), xt∈Yx_t\in Yxt​∈Y, integrability of τ↦L(xτ)(α)\tau\mapsto\mathcal L(x_\tau)(\alpha)τ↦L(xτ​)(α) on [0,t][0,t][0,t] (implicit in the paper), and the equation for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and every α∈I\alpha\in Iα∈I (footnote 6), not almost every α\alphaα.
  • "the solution": any solution; Theorem 4 makes it unique.
  • "converges": Tendsto … atTop (𝓝 l) to a real limit; "except possibly for a countable set": a countable exceptional set; "a.e.": almost everywhere for Lebesgue measure on III.
  • "y~∈Fˉ\tilde y\in\bar Fy~​∈Fˉ" and "s~∈F\tilde s\in Fs~∈F" for an a.e.-defined limit: some representative equal almost everywhere belongs to the set.
  • "any two clusters": two distinct values of positive weight; weights are measures of level sets.
  • "fixed point": existence and uniqueness of the constant solution.
  • Theorem 4's printed upper bound Me4t/mMe^{4t/m}Me4t/m is replaced by "xtx_txt​ is regular for every ttt", because the paper's proof establishes the printed constant only on the first time interval; the lower bound me−tme^{-t}me−t is kept.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: clusters are distinct with positive weight, regularity requires a positive lower slope, the solution predicate forbids the junk value of a non-integrable time integral, and x~(α)=α\tilde x(\alpha)=\alphax~(α)=α is checked to be regular, so no hypothesis is vacuous.

The development needs an integral-equation solution theory for a discontinuous kernel, the Banach fixed point theorem (Mathlib ContractingWith), Grönwall-type estimates, countability of discontinuities of monotone functions, Fatou's lemma and Fubini. Lemmas 1 and 2 and the lower bound in Theorem 4 are reused by the companion mission on the discrete-to-continuum approximation (Theorem 7). Contributions are welcome on every milestone, and in particular on the slope estimates, which are self-contained.

Selected references

  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Continuous-time average-preserving opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent communications, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(8), 2010, 5214–5240. https://doi.org/10.1137/090766188
  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, On Krause's multi-agent consensus model with state-dependent connectivity, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 54(11), 2009, 2586–2597. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2009.2031211
  • J. Lorenz, Continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence: A survey, Internat. J. Modern Phys. C 18(12), 2007, 1819–1838. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183107011789
  • U. Krause, Soziale Dynamiken mit vielen Interakteuren. Eine Problemskizze, in Modellierung und Simulation von Dynamiken mit vielen interagierenden Akteuren, Bremen, 1997, 37–51.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization II: With a Randomized Order and a Diminishing Stepsize, Incremental Subgradient-Proximal Methods Converge Almost Surely to an OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in statistical learning, signal processing and distributed optimization minimize a sum of a large number mmm of convex components over a convex set: a data-fit term per sample plus a regularizer or constraint per sample. When mmm is large, a method that processes one component per iteration is often far cheaper per step than one that evaluates the whole sum. Incremental methods do exactly this. The incremental subgradient method of Nedić and Bertsekas (SIAM J. Optim., 2001) takes a subgradient step on one component at a time; the incremental proximal method replaces some of these steps by proximal steps, which are more stable and are cheap when a component has a closed-form proximal map (an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ term, an indicator of a simple set).

Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization (Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010, revised 2011; Math. Program. 129 (2011), doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0), combines the two: each component is split as Fi=fi+hiF_i=f_i+h_iFi​=fi​+hi​, with a proximal step on fif_ifi​ and a subgradient step on hih_ihi​, followed by a projection. The paper analyzes two ways of choosing the component at each iteration, a fixed cyclic order and a randomized order. This mission covers the randomized order (§4 of the paper); its companion mission covers the cyclic order.

Setting

Let X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be a nonempty closed convex set and let fi,hi:Rn→Rf_i,h_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rfi​,hi​:Rn→R, i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m, be convex. The problem is

minimize F(x)=∑i=1m(fi(x)+hi(x))subject to x∈X,\text{minimize } F(x)=\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl(f_i(x)+h_i(x)\bigr)\quad\text{subject to } x\in X,minimize F(x)=i=1∑m​(fi​(x)+hi​(x))subject to x∈X,

with optimal value F∗=inf⁡x∈XF(x)F^*=\inf_{x\in X}F(x)F∗=infx∈X​F(x), possibly −∞-\infty−∞, and optimal set X∗={x∗∈X∣F(x∗)=F∗}X^*=\{x^*\in X\mid F(x^*)=F^*\}X∗={x∗∈X∣F(x∗)=F∗}, possibly empty. PXP_XPX​ is the Euclidean projection on XXX and ∇~f(x)\tilde\nabla f(x)∇~f(x) a subgradient of fff at xxx.

At iteration kkk a component index ωk∈{1,…,m}\omega_k\in\{1,\dots,m\}ωk​∈{1,…,m} is drawn and, with stepsize αk>0\alpha_k>0αk​>0, one of three updates is applied:

zk=PX(xk−αk∇~fωk(zk)),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hωk(zk)),(42)z_k=P_X\bigl(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad(42)zk​=PX​(xk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(zk​)),(42) zk=xk−αk∇~fωk(zk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hωk(zk)),(43)z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(z_k),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad(43)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(zk​),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(zk​)),(43) zk=xk−αk∇~hωk(xk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~fωk(xk+1)).(44)z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(x_k),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(x_{k+1})\bigr).\qquad(44)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(xk​),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(xk+1​)).(44)

The implicit equations are proximal steps: in (42), zkz_kzk​ minimizes fωk(x)+12αk∥x−xk∥2f_{\omega_k}(x)+\frac1{2\alpha_k}\|x-x_k\|^2fωk​​(x)+2αk​1​∥x−xk​∥2 over XXX. The randomized order means that ωk\omega_kωk​ is uniformly distributed over {1,…,m}\{1,\dots,m\}{1,…,m} and independent of the past history Fk={xk,zk−1,xk−1,…,z0,x0}\mathcal F_k=\{x_k,z_{k-1},x_{k-1},\dots,z_0,x_0\}Fk​={xk​,zk−1​,xk−1​,…,z0​,x0​} (Assumptions 3(a), 4(a)). The growth conditions (Assumptions 3(b), 4(b)) ask for a constant ccc bounding, with probability 1 and for every component iii, the norms of the subgradients used by the step that would be taken if ωk\omega_kωk​ were iii, and the decrease of fif_ifi​, hih_ihi​ along that step by ccc times its length.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 9

If αk→0\alpha_k\to0αk​→0 and ∑kαk=∞\sum_k\alpha_k=\infty∑k​αk​=∞, then

lim inf⁡k→∞F(xk)=F∗with probability 1,\liminf_{k\to\infty}F(x_k)=F^*\quad\text{with probability 1},k→∞liminf​F(xk​)=F∗with probability 1,

and if in addition X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅ and ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then with probability 1 the iterates xkx_kxk​ converge to some x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗ (which may depend on the sample path).

Milestones

  1. Eq. (58). For every x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗ and every k≥0k\ge0k≥0,
E{∥xk+1−x∗∥2∣Fk}≤∥xk−x∗∥2−2αkm(F(xk)−F∗)+5αk2c2.E\{\|x_{k+1}-x^*\|^2\mid\mathcal F_k\}\le\|x_k-x^*\|^2-\frac{2\alpha_k}{m}\bigl(F(x_k)-F^*\bigr)+5\alpha_k^2c^2.E{∥xk+1​−x∗∥2∣Fk​}≤∥xk​−x∗∥2−m2αk​​(F(xk​)−F∗)+5αk2​c2.
  1. Proposition 2, the supermartingale convergence theorem: if E{Yk+1∣Fk}≤Yk−Zk+WkE\{Y_{k+1}\mid\mathcal F_k\}\le Y_k-Z_k+W_kE{Yk+1​∣Fk​}≤Yk​−Zk​+Wk​ for nonnegative adapted Yk,Zk,WkY_k,Z_k,W_kYk​,Zk​,Wk​ and ∑kWk<∞\sum_kW_k<\infty∑k​Wk​<∞ almost surely, then almost surely ∑kZk<∞\sum_kZ_k<\infty∑k​Zk​<∞ and YkY_kYk​ converges.
  2. Eq. (59). If ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then for each x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗, almost surely, ∑k2αkm(F(xk)−F∗)<∞\sum_k\frac{2\alpha_k}{m}(F(x_k)-F^*)<\infty∑k​m2αk​​(F(xk​)−F∗)<∞ and ∥xk−x∗∥\|x_k-x^*\|∥xk​−x∗∥ converges.
  3. Proposition 7 (constant stepsize α\alphaα): almost surely inf⁡k≥0F(xk)=F∗\inf_{k\ge0}F(x_k)=F^*infk≥0​F(xk​)=F∗ if F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, and inf⁡k≥0F(xk)≤F∗+5αmc22\inf_{k\ge0}F(x_k)\le F^*+\frac{5\alpha mc^2}{2}infk≥0​F(xk​)≤F∗+25αmc2​ otherwise.
  4. Proposition 8 (constant stepsize, X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅, ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0): the first index NNN with F(xN)<F∗+5αmc2+ϵ2F(x_N)<F^*+\frac{5\alpha mc^2+\epsilon}{2}F(xN​)<F∗+25αmc2+ϵ​ is almost surely finite and E{N}≤m dist(x0;X∗)2/(αϵ)E\{N\}\le m\,\mathrm{dist}(x_0;X^*)^2/(\alpha\epsilon)E{N}≤mdist(x0​;X∗)2/(αϵ).

Significance

Proposition 9 says that a randomized incremental method with a diminishing stepsize solves the problem exactly, almost surely, under conditions that do not require differentiability, bounded level sets, or strong convexity. Propositions 7 and 8 quantify the constant-stepsize regime: the error bound is O(αmc2)O(\alpha mc^2)O(αmc2), smaller by a factor of mmm than the worst case of the cyclic order (Proposition 4 of the paper). This is the paper's argument for randomization, and the same comparison recurs in the later literature on stochastic and incremental methods.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as known, none of them is machine-checked: Mathlib has conditional expectation, filtrations and Doob's martingale convergence theorem, but not the Robbins–Siegmund almost-supermartingale theorem in the form used here, and no incremental or stochastic proximal method has a formal convergence proof on the platform. The mission produces a formal model of a randomized algorithm with implicit (proximal) steps, a formal Robbins–Siegmund special case, and a complete a.s. convergence proof that other stochastic-approximation formalizations can reuse.

Difficulty

The deterministic estimate behind (58) is the one of the cyclic analysis with the sampled component in place of the cyclic one. The new difficulty is the conditioning step: E{Fωk(zk)∣Fk}=1m∑iFi(zki)E\{F_{\omega_k}(z_k)\mid\mathcal F_k\}=\frac1m\sum_iF_i(z_k^i)E{Fωk​​(zk​)∣Fk​}=m1​∑i​Fi​(zki​) needs the step that would be taken for each component iii to be a function of the past, and ωk\omega_kωk​ to be independent of it, and both must be stated so that the conditional expectation is that of an integrable function. The obvious route from (59) to part 2 of the goal fails: (59) gives, for each x∗x^*x∗, an event of probability 1, and X∗X^*X∗ is in general uncountable, so the events cannot be intersected directly. Part 1 must also handle F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, where no point of X∗X^*X∗ is available.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); components are indexed by Fin m (0,…,m−10,\dots,m-10,…,m−1), with m≥1m\ge1m≥1.
  • XXX is nonempty, closed and convex and fi,hif_i,h_ifi​,hi​ are real-valued convex (the paper's standing assumptions of p. 4), stated as explicit hypotheses; stepsizes are positive.
  • PXP_XPX​ is a predicate (nearest point of XXX); subgradients are given by the subgradient inequality. The iterations (42)–(44) are their subgradient forms, with the subgradient of fif_ifi​ the one that makes the implicit equation hold, which is the paper's proximal step.
  • F∗F^*F∗ is an infimum in EReal, so F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞ is represented and the lim inf⁡\liminfliminf and inf⁡\infinf statements are in EReal.
  • The run carries, for each kkk and each component iii, the would-be step from xkx_kxk​; the realized step is the one for i=ωki=\omega_ki=ωk​. The bounds (45)–(48) are required for all iii, as in the paper.
  • "Independent of the past history" is formalized as independence of σ(ωk)\sigma(\omega_k)σ(ωk​) from Fk=σ(x0,…,xk,z0,…,zk−1)\mathcal F_k=\sigma(x_0,\dots,x_k,z_0,\dots,z_{k-1})Fk​=σ(x0​,…,xk​,z0​,…,zk−1​). Added hypotheses that make it meaningful: the iterates are measurable, the would-be step at kkk is Fk\mathcal F_kFk​-measurable, and x0x_0x0​ is a fixed vector.
  • Proposition 2 adds integrability of YkY_kYk​ (Lean's conditional expectation of a non-integrable function is 000).
  • Proposition 8 uses the paper's own NNN (the first entry time into the level set of its proof), not an arbitrary random variable, and adds the hypothesis x0∈Xx_0\in Xx0​∈X, which its proof uses.

A formalization in which the would-be steps may depend on ωk\omega_kωk​, or in which ωk\omega_kωk​ is only assumed uniform, would let a step pick its component adversarially; the measurability and independence hypotheses rule this out, and none of the hypotheses is unsatisfiable (a sorry-free instance with m=2m=2m=2 is checked locally).

Needed infrastructure: the Robbins–Siegmund special case (Proposition 2), conditional expectation of a function of an independent uniform index and a past-measurable quantity, and existence of a countable dense subset of a closed set in Rn\mathbb R^nRn. The supermartingale theorem and the conditioning lemma are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of reusable lemmas about projections and proximal steps are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization, Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010 (revised March 2011); Mathematical Programming 129 (2011) 163–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0
  • A. Nedić and D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Subgradient Methods for Nondifferentiable Optimization, SIAM Journal on Optimization 12 (2001) 109–138. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499362111
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, A Convergence Theorem for Non Negative Almost Supermartingales and Some Applications, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press, 1971, 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • J. Neveu, Discrete Parameter Martingales, North-Holland, 1975 (the paper's reference [43] for Proposition 2).
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis, Neuro-Dynamic Programming, Athena Scientific, 1996 (the paper's reference [7] for Proposition 2).
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AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Continuous-Time Average-Preserving Opinion Dynamics with Opinion-Dependent Communications 1: Every Proper Solution of the Discrete-Agent Model Converges to Clusters at Least 1 ApartResearch Paper

Motivation

Bounded-confidence opinion dynamics model a population in which each individual revises an opinion, represented by a real number, by looking only at opinions close to its own. The best-known example is the discrete-time model of Krause (1997), also called the Hegselmann–Krause model, in which every agent moves to the average of the opinions within distance 1 of its own. Such models are studied in the social sciences as models of consensus formation and polarization, and in control theory as prototypes of multiagent systems with state-dependent interaction topology: the communication graph is not given in advance but is determined by the state itself, which is what rendezvous algorithms for mobile robots and flocking models share (Lorenz 2007; Olfati-Saber, Fax, Murray 2007).

Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis (SIAM J. Control Optim. 48 (2010)) study the continuous-time, symmetric counterpart of Krause's model. Each opinion is continuously attracted by every other opinion differing from it by less than 1, with an intensity proportional to the difference. Simulations show convergence to clusters, groups of agents sharing a common value, with distinct clusters at distance at least 1 and typically close to 2. This mission formalizes the first of the paper's results: convergence to clusters at least 1 apart for finitely many agents.

Timeline.

  • 1997: Krause introduces the discrete-time bounded-confidence model.
  • 2003: Jadbabaie, Lin and Morse prove convergence results for nearest-neighbour coordination with switching topologies (IEEE TAC 48).
  • 2009: Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis analyse Krause's discrete-time model and the observed intercluster distance of about 2 (IEEE TAC 54).
  • 2010: the present paper. For the continuous-time model with n agents it proves that every proper solution converges to an equilibrium with clusters at least 1 apart (Theorem 2). It also proves that almost every initial condition is proper (Theorem 1, proof sketched) and gives a continuum-agent analysis with a sharper intercluster bound.

Setting

There are nnn agents, labelled 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. Agent iii holds a real opinion xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) at each time t≥0t\ge 0t≥0, and xix_ixi​ is a continuous function of time. Agent jjj is a neighbour of agent iii at time ttt when ∣xi(t)−xj(t)∣<1|x_i(t)-x_j(t)|<1∣xi​(t)−xj​(t)∣<1; the inequality is strict, and every agent is its own neighbour. The intended dynamics are

x˙i(t)=∑j: ∣xi(t)−xj(t)∣<1(xj(t)−xi(t)).(1.1)\dot x_i(t)=\sum_{j:\,|x_i(t)-x_j(t)|<1}\bigl(x_j(t)-x_i(t)\bigr).\tag{1.1}x˙i​(t)=j:∣xi​(t)−xj​(t)∣<1∑​(xj​(t)−xi​(t)).(1.1)

The right-hand side jumps whenever a pair of opinions crosses distance 1, so (1.1) usually has no differentiable solution. The model is therefore the integral equation

xi(t)=xi(0)+∫0t∑j: ∣xi(τ)−xj(τ)∣<1(xj(τ)−xi(τ)) dτ(t≥0, i=1,…,n).(2.1)x_i(t)=x_i(0)+\int_0^t\sum_{j:\,|x_i(\tau)-x_j(\tau)|<1}\bigl(x_j(\tau)-x_i(\tau)\bigr)\,d\tau\qquad(t\ge0,\ i=1,\dots,n).\tag{2.1}xi​(t)=xi​(0)+∫0t​j:∣xi​(τ)−xj​(τ)∣<1∑​(xj​(τ)−xi​(τ))dτ(t≥0, i=1,…,n).(2.1)

Solutions of (2.1) need not be unique. The two-agent initial condition (−12,12)(-\tfrac12,\tfrac12)(−21​,21​) is a fixed point, but the agents can also start attracting each other immediately. An initial condition x~∈Rn\tilde x\in\mathbb R^nx~∈Rn is proper if (a) (2.1) has exactly one solution xxx with x(0)=x~x(0)=\tilde xx(0)=x~; (b) the set of times at which xxx is not differentiable is at most countable and has no accumulation point; and (c) agents that meet stay together: xi(t)=xj(t)x_i(t)=x_j(t)xi​(t)=xj​(t) implies xi(t′)=xj(t′)x_i(t')=x_j(t')xi​(t′)=xj​(t′) for all t′≥tt'\ge tt′≥t. That solution is then a proper solution.

The set of equilibria is

F={s~∈Rn: for all i,j, s~i=s~j or ∣s~i−s~j∣≥1}.F=\bigl\{\tilde s\in\mathbb R^n:\ \text{for all } i,j,\ \tilde s_i=\tilde s_j\ \text{or}\ |\tilde s_i-\tilde s_j|\ge 1\bigr\}.F={s~∈Rn: for all i,j, s~i​=s~j​ or ∣s~i​−s~j​∣≥1}.

The average opinion is xˉ(t)=1n∑ixi(t)\bar x(t)=\frac1n\sum_i x_i(t)xˉ(t)=n1​∑i​xi​(t), and V(x(t))=∑i(xi(t)−xˉ(t))2V(x(t))=\sum_i\bigl(x_i(t)-\bar x(t)\bigr)^2V(x(t))=∑i​(xi​(t)−xˉ(t))2 is the sum of squared differences from it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Every proper solution xxx of (2.1) converges to a limit in FFF:

∃ x∗∈F:lim⁡t→∞x(t)=x∗,\exists\,x^*\in F:\qquad \lim_{t\to\infty}x(t)=x^*,∃x∗∈F:t→∞lim​x(t)=x∗,

that is, all limits exist and two agents with different limits end at distance at least 1.

Milestones, in the order the argument uses them

  1. Order preservation (§2.1, p. 5218): if xi(t)≥xj(t)x_i(t)\ge x_j(t)xi​(t)≥xj​(t) for some ttt, then xi(t′)≥xj(t′)x_i(t')\ge x_j(t')xi​(t′)≥xj​(t′) for every t′≥tt'\ge tt′≥t.
  2. Proposition 1 (p. 5218): xˉ\bar xxˉ is constant, V(x(t))V(x(t))V(x(t)) is nonincreasing, and outside a countable set of times dV/dtdV/dtdV/dt is negative when x(t)∉Fx(t)\notin Fx(t)∈/F and zero when x(t)∈Fx(t)\in Fx(t)∈F.
  3. Monotone partial sums (2.3) (p. 5219): for a sorted initial condition and every kkk, outside a countable set of times the derivative of ∑i≤kxi(t)\sum_{i\le k}x_i(t)∑i≤k​xi​(t) equals ∑i≤k∑j>k: ∣xi−xj∣<1(xj−xi)≥0\sum_{i\le k}\sum_{j>k:\,|x_i-x_j|<1}(x_j-x_i)\ge 0∑i≤k​∑j>k:∣xi​−xj​∣<1​(xj​−xi​)≥0, and ∑i≤kxi(t)\sum_{i\le k}x_i(t)∑i≤k​xi​(t) is nondecreasing in ttt.
  4. Convergence of each opinion (p. 5219): every xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) has a limit as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 establishes the clustering behaviour seen in simulations for every proper solution. The paper's Theorem 1 states that almost every initial condition is proper, so the conclusion covers almost every initial condition. The lower bound 1 on the distance between clusters is the baseline that the paper's continuum analysis improves to 1+min⁡{WA,WB}/max⁡{WA,WB}1+\min\{W_A,W_B\}/\max\{W_A,W_B\}1+min{WA​,WB​}/max{WA​,WB​}. Average preservation and the decrease of VVV (Proposition 1) are the structural facts that the continuum model also has.

Formalization. Theorem 2 is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists on Prove2Me or, as far as is known, elsewhere. The mission produces a Lean definition of solutions of a discontinuous integral equation with a state-dependent neighbour graph, and a convergence proof for it. The remaining work is to formalize the known argument, from the integral equation to the existence and location of the limit.

Difficulty

The obvious approach treats (1.1) as an ODE and differentiates along trajectories. That fails because the right-hand side is discontinuous in the state. A solution is only an integral solution, it may fail to be differentiable, and derivative identities such as (2.3) hold only outside an exceptional set of times. Every step from a derivative sign to a monotonicity or limit statement therefore has to go through the integral equation, not the differential one. A second obstacle is that pairs of agents at distance exactly 1 sit on the discontinuity of the interaction rule. This is where uniqueness fails (footnote 3 of the paper) and why conditions (a)–(c) are hypotheses. A decreasing Lyapunov function VVV alone does not give convergence of the trajectory to a single point, so Proposition 1 does not by itself settle Theorem 2.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n. Time is ℝ, and only values at t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 enter. A trajectory is x : ℝ → Fin n → ℝ. A solution of (2.1) is continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and satisfies (2.1) for every t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 and every iii, with the neighbour set Finset.univ.filter (fun j => |x τ i - x τ j| < 1). The integrand is also required to be interval-integrable on [0,t][0,t][0,t]; for a continuous trajectory this always holds. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "unique solution" in (a) is uniqueness among all solutions of (2.1), with no sortedness or differentiability assumed;
  • condition (b) is "for every TTT, the non-differentiability times in [0,T][0,T][0,T] form a finite set", which is equivalent for subsets of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞);
  • "converges to a limit" is Tendsto x atTop (𝓝 xstar) in Fin n → ℝ, with real time;
  • "with the exception of a countable set of times" is the existence of a countable set SSS outside which the derivative of V(x(t))V(x(t))V(x(t)) exists and has the stated sign;
  • "constant" and "nonincreasing" are on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞);
  • Proposition 1 assumes n≥1n\ge1n≥1 so that xˉ\bar xxˉ is meaningful.

The paper's sortedness convention ("we assume … that the components of proper initial conditions are sorted") is a hypothesis only of the partial-sum milestone. Theorem 2 is stated for every proper solution. A formalization that dropped condition (a), restricted solutions to sorted, differentiable or eventually constant trajectories, or replaced (2.1) by the differential equation would prove a different, and in parts trivial, statement. These are excluded.

The work needs interval integrals and the fundamental theorem of calculus for integrands with jumps, monotonicity from almost-everywhere derivative signs, and bounded monotone convergence. The definition of solutions of (2.1) and the equilibrium set is reusable for the stability results of the same paper (Theorem 3), which are not part of this mission. Contributions are welcome at every milestone, as are alternative convergence proofs, such as the paper's reference [9], that avoid symmetry.

Selected references

  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Continuous-time average-preserving opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent communications, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(8), 2010, 5214–5240. https://doi.org/10.1137/090766188
  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, On Krause's multi-agent consensus model with state-dependent connectivity, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 54(11), 2009, 2586–2597. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2009.2031211
  • A. Jadbabaie, J. Lin, A. S. Morse, Coordination of groups of mobile autonomous agents using nearest neighbor rules, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 48(6), 2003, 988–1001. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2003.812781
  • J. Lorenz, Continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence: a survey, Internat. J. Modern Phys. C 18(12), 2007, 1819–1838. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183107011789
  • R. Olfati-Saber, J. A. Fax, R. M. Murray, Consensus and cooperation in networked multi-agent systems, Proc. IEEE 95(1), 2007, 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2006.887293
  • U. Krause, Soziale Dynamiken mit vielen Interakteuren. Eine Problemskizze, in Modellierung und Simulation von Dynamiken mit vielen interagierenden Akteuren, Universität Bremen, 1997, 37–51.
6 thms1 active userReviewed
Linear OptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing 2: The Phased Online Fractional Covering Scheme Covers Every Constraint to 1/B at Cost at Most 8 log(2n)/B Times the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Online covering models decisions that must be made as requirements arrive. A planner knows the cost of each available resource, but learns the requirements one at a time and cannot undo an allocation already made. This occurs, for example, when requests for network service or elements needing coverage appear over time. The central question is how much more an online fractional allocation can cost than a best allocation chosen after all requirements are known. Buchbinder and Naor study this question through a paired covering and packing linear program and give an online scheme for arbitrary nonnegative constraint coefficients, not only incidence coefficients in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, §§2–4).

The result targeted here is Theorem 4.1 of that paper. It concerns the fractional covering scheme of §4, before the separate extension to box constraints in §4.1. The theorem is a statement about the particular phased scheme, so the scheme's state and update rule form part of the mathematical setting. The online requirement also matters: after each new constraint, earlier allocations remain in force (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 4, 8).

Setting

Let III be a finite nonempty set of nnn primal variables and let k=0,…,m−1k=0,\ldots,m-1k=0,…,m−1 index constraints in arrival order. The known cost of variable iii is ci>0c_i>0ci​>0. Constraint kkk has coefficient aik≥0a_{ik}\ge0aik​≥0 for variable iii; when it arrives, the online algorithm learns its coefficients. The normalized offline covering problem minimizes ∑icizi\sum_i c_i z_i∑i​ci​zi​ over zi≥0z_i\ge0zi​≥0 subject to ∑iaikzi≥1\sum_i a_{ik}z_i\ge1∑i​aik​zi​≥1 for every constraint considered. Its packing dual maximizes ∑kyk\sum_k y_k∑k​yk​ over yk≥0y_k\ge0yk​≥0 subject to ∑kaikyk≤ci\sum_k a_{ik}y_k\le c_i∑k​aik​yk​≤ci​ for each iii. The finite data and sign conventions are those of Figure 1 (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 3–4).

The scheme accepts a parameter B>0B>0B>0 and asks for coverage only to 1/B1/B1/B. It maintains a sequence of phases. The first phase bound α1\alpha_1α1​ is B−1B^{-1}B−1 times the least ratio ci/ai0c_i/a_{i0}ci​/ai0​ among the positive coefficients of the first constraint. The bound doubles at a restart. Within a phase, the vector yyy begins at zero, the initial primal allocation is xi=α/(2nci)x_i=\alpha/(2nc_i)xi​=α/(2nci​), and the allocation subsequently follows the exponential expression on page 8. The current phase may need to process constraints already seen in earlier phases. Old phase vectors are retained: the actual online allocation is the coordinatewise maximum of the current and all finished phase vectors. Thus resetting a phase does not retract an earlier allocation (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, p. 8).

Formalization targets

Theorem 4.1: coverage and competitive cost

For every nonempty arrival prefix of length JJJ, a run of the phased scheme exists. Every completed run has output xxx satisfying

∑iaikxi≥1B(k<J),\sum_i a_{ik}x_i\ge\frac1B\qquad(k<J),i∑​aik​xi​≥B1​(k<J),

and, for every nonnegative offline comparison vector zzz satisfying ∑iaikzi≥1\sum_i a_{ik}z_i\ge1∑i​aik​zi​≥1 for each k<Jk<Jk<J,

∑icixi≤8log⁡(2n)B∑icizi.\sum_i c_i x_i\le\frac{8\log(2n)}{B}\sum_i c_i z_i.i∑​ci​xi​≤B8log(2n)​i∑​ci​zi​.

The paper states the ratio as O(log⁡n/B)O(\log n/B)O(logn/B). Its closing display on page 9 yields the explicit factor 8log⁡(2n)/B8\log(2n)/B8log(2n)/B used here. The benchmark uses the unscaled covering constraints of Figure 1; replacing them with constraints at 1/B1/B1/B would change the guarantee (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, Theorem 4.1 and proof, pp. 8–9).

The four claims within its proof

The milestone list follows the four claims printed under Theorem 4.1. A finished phase has dual objective at least Bαr/(2log⁡(2n))B\alpha_r/(2\log(2n))Bαr​/(2log(2n)); every phase dual vector satisfies the packing constraints; the sum of phase primal costs through the current phase is less than 2αr2\alpha_r2αr​; and the actual allocation covers every arrived constraint to 1/B1/B1/B. These are statements about the phase records of the scheme, including a partly processed round that ends in a restart (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 8–9).

Significance

The theorem gives a cost guarantee for a general online covering problem while allowing arbitrary nonnegative coefficients. It separates the cost paid by an allocation from the level of coverage requested through BBB. Its four claims identify the quantities that make the guarantee meaningful: the dual vector certifies a lower bound for an offline comparison, the phase costs control the online expenditure, and the output remains feasible as constraints arrive. The same primal–dual setting is used elsewhere in the paper for online packing and for applications of covering and packing methods (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, §§3–5).

The paper proves Theorem 4.1. This mission asks for a machine-checked account of the known result and of the scheme to which it applies. A published formal restatement, OnlinePrimalDual.GeneralPacking.theorem14_3, already gives a ratio conclusion under an assumed ratio bound and an assumed weak-duality inequality; those hypotheses contain the main work needed here. The present goal instead quantifies over runs generated by the update rule and asks both that a run exists and that all such runs satisfy the guarantees. The published general instance definition is reused, so the finite covering and packing data have a shared interface.

Difficulty

An online allocation cannot be evaluated solely from its final vector. A phase restart resets the working dual vector and restarts the constraint scan, while allocations from completed phases still affect the actual output. A statement about arbitrary vectors with a presumed cost bound would leave out this behavior. The continuous update also requires a precise stopping event when coverage or the phase cost reaches its threshold. The cost guarantee is sensitive to which condition wins if both occur together, and to whether a phase can restart indefinitely. Those details must be represented before any claim about completed phases has the paper's meaning (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 8–9).

Formalization scope

Lean uses OnlinePrimalDual.GeneralPacking.GeneralInstance I (Fin m) for the coefficient matrix and costs. A nonempty finite type III represents the nnn primal variables; Fin m supplies the ordered constraints. The theorem assumes m≥1m\ge1m≥1, B>0B>0B>0, and a positive coefficient in every constraint. The last condition makes each arriving constraint coverable and makes the first ratio minimum nonempty; zero coefficients are omitted from that minimum. The paper treats infeasible all-zero rows implicitly. The minimum is over a finite nonempty set, so the real infimum in the Lean definition equals the ordinary minimum. All sums are finite and all logarithms are natural.

The run is an event relation with three events: arrival of one new constraint after all known constraints have been processed, completion of a covered round at its first stopping time, and restart at the cost cap while coverage remains deficient. A restart doubles α\alphaα, records the old phase, resets the dual variables, and resumes at the first known constraint. The state records the current phase and all finished phases; the output takes their coordinatewise maximum. A simultaneous coverage and cost event counts as covered. Reaching the cost cap models the continuous stopping time behind the paper's wording that the cost “exceeds” the bound. The theorem asserts run existence, so a ratio claim cannot hold merely because the run relation has no witness.

The explicit O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) instantiation in this mission is 8log⁡(2n)/B8\log(2n)/B8log(2n)/B, from the page 9 closing display. The first-phase case is bounded there by 1/B1/B1/B times the optimum and is included in the same stated coefficient. The comparison vector must satisfy the original level-one constraints. Theorem 4.2, which adds upper bounds on variables and appears in §4.1, is outside this mission. The run definition, phase-cost and coverage functions, and the four claims are reusable infrastructure for later work on continuous online primal–dual schemes.

Selected references

  • Niv Buchbinder and Joseph Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2009. DOI: 10.1287/moor.1080.0363.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization I: With a Cyclic Order and a Diminishing Stepsize, Incremental Subgradient-Proximal Methods Converge to an Optimal SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing and distributed computation have an objective that is a sum of a large number mmm of component functions: one per data point, per sensor, or per processor. Evaluating the whole sum, or a subgradient of it, at every iteration is expensive when mmm is large. Incremental methods process one component at a time, cycling through the components or sampling them, and update the iterate after each one. Incremental gradient and subgradient methods go back to the training of neural networks and to least squares; incremental proximal methods replace the subgradient step of a component by a proximal step, which is more stable and handles nonsmooth terms exactly.

Bertsekas (LIDS-P-2847, 2010, rev. 2011; Math. Program. 129 (2011)) proposed a unified family that mixes the two: each component is split as Fi=fi+hiF_i=f_i+h_iFi​=fi​+hi​, a proximal step is taken on fif_ifi​ and a subgradient step on hih_ihi​, followed by a projection onto the constraint set. This mission formalizes the convergence analysis of that family under the cyclic order of component selection.

Timeline. Incremental subgradient methods were analysed by Nedić and Bertsekas (SIAM J. Optim. 12 (2001)) for cyclic and randomized orders. Incremental proximal methods were studied by Bertsekas (Optimization for Machine Learning, 2011, ch. 4). The 2011 paper combines the two analyses; its cyclic-order results are Propositions 3–6.

Setting

Let Rn\mathbb R^nRn carry the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and inner product x′yx'yx′y. The data are a nonempty closed convex set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn and real-valued convex functions fi,hi:Rn→Rf_i,h_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rfi​,hi​:Rn→R, i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m. The problem is

minimize F(x)=∑i=1mFi(x),Fi=fi+hi,subject to x∈X,\text{minimize } F(x)=\sum_{i=1}^m F_i(x),\qquad F_i=f_i+h_i,\qquad\text{subject to } x\in X,minimize F(x)=i=1∑m​Fi​(x),Fi​=fi​+hi​,subject to x∈X,

with optimal value F∗=inf⁡x∈XF(x)F^*=\inf_{x\in X}F(x)F∗=infx∈X​F(x), possibly −∞-\infty−∞, and optimal set X∗={x∗∈X:F(x∗)=F∗}X^*=\{x^*\in X:F(x^*)=F^*\}X∗={x∗∈X:F(x∗)=F∗}, possibly empty.

A subgradient ∇~f(x)\tilde\nabla f(x)∇~f(x) of a convex fff at xxx is a vector ggg with f(y)≥f(x)+g′(y−x)f(y)\ge f(x)+g'(y-x)f(y)≥f(x)+g′(y−x) for all yyy; PX(u)P_X(u)PX​(u) is the point of XXX nearest to uuu. At iteration kkk one component iki_kik​ is processed with stepsize αk>0\alpha_k>0αk​>0. The three iterations are

(19)zk=PX(xk−αk∇~fik(zk)),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hik(zk)),(20)zk=xk−αk∇~fik(zk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hik(zk)),(21)zk=xk−αk∇~hik(xk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~fik(xk+1)).\begin{aligned} &(19)\quad z_k=P_X\big(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(z_k)\big),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(z_k)\big),\\ &(20)\quad z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(z_k),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(z_k)\big),\\ &(21)\quad z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(x_k),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(x_{k+1})\big). \end{aligned}​(19)zk​=PX​(xk​−αk​∇~fik​​(zk​)),(20)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~fik​​(zk​),(21)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~hik​​(xk​),​​xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hik​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hik​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~fik​​(xk+1​)).​

The fff-subgradient is taken at the new point, which makes the fff-part a proximal step (Proposition 1). In the cyclic order ik=(k mod m)+1i_k=(k\bmod m)+1ik​=(kmodm)+1; a block of mmm consecutive iterations is a cycle, and αk\alpha_kαk​ is constant within a cycle.

The analysis assumes that the subgradients the iteration uses are bounded by a constant ccc and that, at each cycle start k>0k>0k>0, the function values at the intermediate points of the cycle differ from those at xkx_kxk​ by at most ccc times the distance (Assumption 1 for (19), (20); Assumption 2 for (21)). Both hold, for example, when all fif_ifi​, hih_ihi​ are polyhedral or Lipschitz.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6

If αk→0\alpha_k\to0αk​→0 and ∑kαk=∞\sum_k\alpha_k=\infty∑k​αk​=∞, then

lim inf⁡k→∞F(xk)=F∗,\liminf_{k\to\infty}F(x_k)=F^*,k→∞liminf​F(xk​)=F∗,

and if moreover X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅ and ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then xk→x∗x_k\to x^*xk​→x∗ for some x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗. Both parts are one item, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1: the proximal iteration over XXX equals PX(xk−αk∇~f(xk+1))P_X(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f(x_{k+1}))PX​(xk​−αk​∇~f(xk+1​)), and ∥xk+1−y∥2≤∥xk−y∥2−2αk(f(xk+1)−f(y))−∥xk−xk+1∥2\|x_{k+1}-y\|^2\le\|x_k-y\|^2-2\alpha_k(f(x_{k+1})-f(y))-\|x_k-x_{k+1}\|^2∥xk+1​−y∥2≤∥xk​−y∥2−2αk​(f(xk+1​)−f(y))−∥xk​−xk+1​∥2 for y∈Xy\in Xy∈X.
  2. Eq. (30) and Eq. (37): one-iteration estimates for (19)/(20) and for (21).
  3. Proposition 3: over one cycle, ∥xk+m−y∥2≤∥xk−y∥2−2αk(F(xk)−F(y))+αk2βm2c2\|x_{k+m}-y\|^2\le\|x_k-y\|^2-2\alpha_k(F(x_k)-F(y))+\alpha_k^2\beta m^2c^2∥xk+m​−y∥2≤∥xk​−y∥2−2αk​(F(xk​)−F(y))+αk2​βm2c2, with β=1m+4\beta=\frac1m+4β=m1​+4 for (19), (20) and β=5m+4\beta=\frac5m+4β=m5​+4 for (21).
  4. Footnote 5: nonnegative sequences with Yk+1≤Yk−Zk+WkY_{k+1}\le Y_k-Z_k+W_kYk+1​≤Yk​−Zk​+Wk​ and ∑Wk<∞\sum W_k<\infty∑Wk​<∞ have YkY_kYk​ convergent.
  5. Proof of Proposition 6: ∥xk+1−xk∥≤2αkc\|x_{k+1}-x_k\|\le2\alpha_kc∥xk+1​−xk​∥≤2αk​c.
  6. Proposition 4 (constant stepsize α\alphaα): lim inf⁡F(xk)=F∗\liminf F(x_k)=F^*liminfF(xk​)=F∗ if F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, and lim inf⁡F(xk)≤F∗+αβm2c2/2\liminf F(x_k)\le F^*+\alpha\beta m^2c^2/2liminfF(xk​)≤F∗+αβm2c2/2 otherwise.

Significance

Proposition 6 is the exact-convergence guarantee for the cyclic incremental subgradient-proximal methods: with a diminishing, non-summable stepsize they reach the optimal value whatever the starting point, and with square-summable stepsizes the iterates converge to a single optimal solution. It covers the pure incremental subgradient method (fi=0f_i=0fi​=0) and the pure incremental proximal method (hi=0h_i=0hi​=0) as special cases, and it is the template for the randomized-order analysis of the companion mission. Proposition 4 quantifies what a constant stepsize achieves.

These results are proved in the paper. None of them, nor the underlying estimates, is formalized on the platform or, to our knowledge, in Mathlib. The mission produces machine-checked versions of the proximal-step lemma for extended-real-valued functions on a constrained set, of the cycle estimate (27) with its explicit constants, and of the deterministic supermartingale convergence lemma, all reusable for other incremental and proximal methods.

Difficulty

The obvious argument treats one cycle as one step of a subgradient method on FFF. It fails because within a cycle the subgradients are taken at the intermediate points zk+j−1z_{k+j-1}zk+j−1​ or xk+j−1x_{k+j-1}xk+j−1​, not at xkx_kxk​, and the proximal steps use subgradients at the points they produce. The error between Fj(xk)F_j(x_k)Fj​(xk​) and FjF_jFj​ at those points must be controlled through the drift of the iterates during the cycle, and the bookkeeping differs between (19)/(20) and (21), which is why β\betaβ differs. For the second part of Proposition 6, convergence of the values in the lim inf⁡\liminfliminf sense does not by itself give convergence of the iterates, and X∗X^*X∗ may contain more than one point.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Components are Fin m (0-based), so iki_kik​ is k % m, and the paper's j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m with zk+j−1z_{k+j-1}zk+j−1​ becomes j=0,…,m−1j=0,\dots,m-1j=0,…,m−1 with z (k + j). m≥1m\ge1m≥1 is assumed (NeZero m).
  • PXP_XPX​ is a predicate (IsProj: a nearest point of XXX), not a choice function.
  • Each iteration is a relation Step between xkx_kxk​, zkz_kzk​, xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ and the two subgradients it uses, with the fff-subgradient at the point the paper names. A run records these subgradients, so Assumptions 1–2 bound exactly them. The assumptions are not replaced by Lipschitz continuity, which is only a sufficient condition (p. 9).
  • F∗F^*F∗ and lim inf⁡F(xk)\liminf F(x_k)liminfF(xk​) are taken in EReal; F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞ is allowed and no boundedness is assumed.
  • The standing assumptions of p. 4 (X nonempty closed convex, fi,hif_i,h_ifi​,hi​ convex), positive stepsizes, constancy within a cycle and Assumptions 1–2 (stated "throughout this section", p. 8) are explicit hypotheses of every statement, including the goal, whose sentence does not repeat them.
  • The starting point x0x_0x0​ is arbitrary, as in the paper. Assumptions 1–2 make the cycle-start conditions only for k>0k>0k>0, and the bound ∥xk+1−xk∥≤2αkc\|x_{k+1}-x_k\|\le2\alpha_kc∥xk+1​−xk​∥≤2αk​c needs xk∈Xx_k\in Xxk​∈X, which holds from k=1k=1k=1 on. Proposition 3 and the step bound are therefore stated for k>0k>0k>0 and k≥1k\ge1k≥1; this does not affect Propositions 4 and 6.
  • Proposition 1 is stated for extended-real-valued closed proper convex fff, as in the paper, using the published class Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ (MoreauProx.Characterization.GammaZero) and its subgradients, with relative interiors as Mathlib's intrinsicInterior.

The goal cannot be satisfied vacuously: a sorry-free check confirms that the hypotheses hold together (for n=1n=1n=1, m=2m=2m=2, X=RX=\mathbb RX=R, αk=1/(⌊k/2⌋+1)\alpha_k=1/(\lfloor k/2\rfloor+1)αk​=1/(⌊k/2⌋+1), X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅). Restricting to Lipschitz components, to bounded-below FFF, or to x0∈Xx_0\in Xx0​∈X would state a weaker theorem and is ruled out.

Proofs of any item are welcome, as are general lemmas (the projection theorem as a variational inequality, the subdifferential sum rule under the relative-interior condition) that the proofs need.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization, Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010 (rev. March 2011); Math. Program. 129(2) (2011) 163–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0
  • A. Nedić, D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Subgradient Methods for Nondifferentiable Optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 12(1) (2001) 109–138. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499362111
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Gradient, Subgradient, and Proximal Methods for Convex Optimization: A Survey, in Optimization for Machine Learning, MIT Press, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.01030
  • D. P. Bertsekas, A. Nedić, A. E. Ozdaglar, Convex Analysis and Optimization, Athena Scientific, 2003.
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search I: Under Independent-Assortment Search, a Variant's Demand Falls Strictly as the Assortment ExpandsResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer choosing which variants of a product to stock (colours, sizes, models) faces a trade-off that operations management has studied since van Ryzin and Mahajan (1999): a deeper assortment attracts more purchases, but each added variant takes demand away from the variants already on the shelf. This loss is called cannibalization. In the standard model of consumer choice, the multinomial logit (MNL), cannibalization holds exactly: every variant's purchase probability falls when a variant is added.

The MNL assumes that a consumer who walks into a store buys either from that store or nothing. Real consumers can also leave to search elsewhere, and a deeper assortment makes them less likely to leave. Cachon, Terwiesch and Xu (working paper, 2002; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2005, doi:10.1287/msom.1050.0088) add search to the MNL and ask whether cannibalization survives. Two forces now act on a variant's demand when the assortment expands: the share of buyers who choose it falls, and the share of consumers who stay in the store rises. This mission formalizes their answer for the first of their two search models, the independent assortment model, in which the outside option does not depend on what the retailer stocks.

Setting

There are nnn possible variants N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}; the retailer stocks an assortment S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N. A faux variant 000 represents not buying.

Gumbel shocks. Fix a scale μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and let γ\gammaγ be Euler's constant. The zero-mean Gumbel law with scale μ\muμ has distribution function and density

F(x)=exp⁡[−exp⁡(−(xμ+γ))],f(x)=F′(x).F(x)=\exp\Big[-\exp\Big(-\Big(\frac{x}{\mu}+\gamma\Big)\Big)\Big],\qquad f(x)=F'(x).F(x)=exp[−exp(−(μx​+γ))],f(x)=F′(x).

Utilities. Variant jjj has expected net utility uj−pju_j-p_juj​−pj​ (utility minus price), and the no-purchase option has u0u_0u0​ (its price is p0=0p_0=0p0​=0). A consumer's realised utilities are Uj=(uj−pj)+ζjU_j=(u_j-p_j)+\zeta_jUj​=(uj​−pj​)+ζj​ and U0=u0+ζ0U_0=u_0+\zeta_0U0​=u0​+ζ0​, with ζ0,ζ1,…,ζn\zeta_0,\zeta_1,\dots,\zeta_nζ0​,ζ1​,…,ζn​ independent and Gumbel. The preference of variant jjj is vj=exp⁡((uj−pj)/μ)v_j=\exp((u_j-p_j)/\mu)vj​=exp((uj​−pj​)/μ), and v0=exp⁡(u0/μ)v_0=\exp(u_0/\mu)v0​=exp(u0​/μ).

No search. The consumer buys the variant of SSS with the highest utility, or nothing if U0U_0U0​ is higher. The probability that she buys i∈Si\in Si∈S is qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S).

Search. A consumer may instead search at a cost bbb and receive Ur=ur+ζrU_r=u_r+\zeta_rUr​=ur​+ζr​, where ζr\zeta_rζr​ is another independent Gumbel shock that she has not yet observed. Having seen y=Umax⁡y=U_{\max}y=Umax​, the best utility in the store, she searches when the expected gain minus the expected loss is at least bbb:

∫y−ur∞(ur+x−y)f(x) dx−∫−∞y−ur(y−ur−x)f(x) dx ≥ b.\int_{y-u_r}^{\infty}(u_r+x-y)f(x)\,dx-\int_{-\infty}^{y-u_r}(y-u_r-x)f(x)\,dx\ \ge\ b .∫y−ur​∞​(ur​+x−y)f(x)dx−∫−∞y−ur​​(y−ur​−x)f(x)dx ≥ b.

The independent-assortment demand qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) is the probability that variant iii has the highest utility in SSS, beats the no-purchase option, and the consumer does not search. Write Uˉ=ur−b\bar U=u_r-bUˉ=ur​−b (the search threshold), λ=exp⁡[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]\lambda=\exp[-(\bar U/\mu+\gamma)]λ=exp[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)] and H(Uˉ,S)=exp⁡(−λ(v0+∑j∈Svj))H(\bar U,S)=\exp\big(-\lambda(v_0+\sum_{j\in S}v_j)\big)H(Uˉ,S)=exp(−λ(v0​+∑j∈S​vj​)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 9)

For all SSS and S+S^+S+ with i∈S⊊S+i\in S\subsetneq S^+i∈S⊊S+,

qisi(S) > qisi(S+).q_i^{si}(S)\ >\ q_i^{si}(S^+).qisi​(S) > qisi​(S+).

The goal leaves the utilities uj−pju_j-p_juj​−pj​, u0u_0u0​, uru_rur​, the search cost bbb, the scale μ\muμ and the number of variants nnn arbitrary.

Milestones

  1. The MNL formula (2): qim(S)=vi/(∑j∈Svj+v0)q_i^m(S)=v_i/(\sum_{j\in S}v_j+v_0)qim​(S)=vi​/(∑j∈S​vj​+v0​) for i=0i=0i=0 and i∈Si\in Si∈S.
  2. The Gumbel law with the constant γ\gammaγ has mean zero, E[ζr]=0E[\zeta_r]=0E[ζr​]=0.
  3. The search rule: search is worthwhile at yyy if and only if ur−b≥yu_r-b\ge yur​−b≥y.
  4. The integral representation of qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) over the realisation ϕ\phiϕ of ζi\zeta_iζi​.
  5. The change of variables δ=exp⁡[−(ϕ/μ+γ)]\delta=\exp[-(\phi/\mu+\gamma)]δ=exp[−(ϕ/μ+γ)] that turns it into ∫0αexp⁡[−δ(v0+∑j∈Svj)/vi] dδ\int_0^\alpha\exp[-\delta(v_0+\sum_{j\in S}v_j)/v_i]\,d\delta∫0α​exp[−δ(v0​+∑j∈S​vj​)/vi​]dδ.
  6. Theorem 1 (p. 8): qisi(S)=qim(S) (1−H(Uˉ,S))q_i^{si}(S)=q_i^m(S)\,\big(1-H(\bar U,S)\big)qisi​(S)=qim​(S)(1−H(Uˉ,S)) for i∈Si\in Si∈S.
  7. T(ω)=ω(1−e−λ/ω)T(\omega)=\omega(1-e^{-\lambda/\omega})T(ω)=ω(1−e−λ/ω) is strictly increasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), with the derivative the paper displays.
  8. qisi(S)=vi T((∑k∈Svk+v0)−1)q_i^{si}(S)=v_i\,T\big((\sum_{k\in S}v_k+v_0)^{-1}\big)qisi​(S)=vi​T((∑k∈S​vk​+v0​)−1).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that under independent-assortment search the demand for every stocked variant is its MNL demand scaled by one common factor, the probability 1−H(Uˉ,S)1-H(\bar U,S)1−H(Uˉ,S) that the best option in the store clears the threshold Uˉ\bar UUˉ. The threshold itself does not depend on the assortment. Theorem 2 then shows that the MNL's cannibalization effect dominates the retention effect of a deeper assortment, so each variant's demand still falls strictly when variants are added. The paper's later results on the shape of the profit function and on the structure of optimal assortments under search build on this closed form.

The paper's proofs are short but rely on steps it states without proof: the MNL formula is cited from Anderson, de Palma and Thisse (1992), the search rule is obtained "after rearranging terms", and the closed form follows from a change of variables. No machine-checked version of these steps is known. The mission produces a checked derivation of a logit-type closed form from an explicit random-utility model with an outside option and an endogenous stopping decision, at the paper's scale μ\muμ and with its centring constant γ\gammaγ.

Difficulty

Theorem 2 is not monotonicity of a single fraction. Adding a variant enlarges the denominator of qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S) and simultaneously raises the factor 1−H(Uˉ,S)1-H(\bar U,S)1−H(Uˉ,S), so the sign of the change is a competition between the two, and a bound on either factor alone does not settle it. The comparison becomes one-dimensional only after Theorem 1 is available, and Theorem 1 itself requires computing a probability of an event defined by finitely many strict inequalities among independent Gumbel variables together with the consumer's search decision. That calculation is an iterated integral over the product law, with the decision rule, the mean of the Gumbel law and the change of variables each needing their own justification.

Formalization scope

  • Indices. Variants are Fin n, 0-based (the paper's variant iii is index i−1i-1i−1). The no-purchase option is the extra index none of Option (Fin n). Assortments are Finset (Fin n), and S⊊S+S\subsetneq S^+S⊊S+ is S ⊂ Splus.
  • The law. IsZeroMeanGumbel μ G says the probability measure G on ℝ has distribution function FFF above; μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and γ\gammaγ is Real.eulerMascheroniConstant. Such a law exists for every μ>0\mu>0μ>0 (checked sorry-free locally).
  • The sample space is Option (Fin n) → ℝ with the product measure Measure.pi (fun _ => G). The search shock does not appear in it: the consumer decides before observing ζr\zeta_rζr​, so only its law enters, as integration against G in the search rule.
  • Demand. qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S) (noSearchProb) and qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) (searchProb) are the real values of the probabilities of the choice events, with strict inequalities. The search event uses the paper's decision rule (the displayed integral), not the threshold Uˉ\bar UUˉ; the equivalence is a milestone. The closed form vi/(∑j∈Svj+v0)v_i/(\sum_{j\in S}v_j+v_0)vi​/(∑j∈S​vj​+v0​) is the published RetailVariety.Structure.share.
  • Corrected typo. The paper prints α=exp⁡[−((Uˉ−ui)/μ+γ)]\alpha=\exp[-((\bar U-u_i)/\mu+\gamma)]α=exp[−((Uˉ−ui​)/μ+γ)]; the change of variables gives ui−piu_i-p_iui​−pi​ in place of uiu_iui​, and the milestone states the corrected value.
  • TTT is used on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞); the paper's interval [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) includes a point where TTT is undefined.

Ruled out. Demand defined by the closed form (3), which would make Theorem 1 true by definition and Theorem 2 a calculus fact; Theorem 2 with ⊆\subseteq⊆ and ≥\ge≥; a standard Gumbel law (scale 111, mean γ\gammaγ) in place of the paper's zero-mean scale-μ\muμ law; and a model without the no-purchase option.

Infrastructure. A complete development needs the distribution theory of the Gumbel law (density, mean), choice probabilities of products of i.i.d. continuous variables as iterated integrals, and calculus for TTT. The Gumbel and MNL lemmas are reusable for any logit-based choice model, including the other missions of this series. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, or of general MNL infrastructure that the milestones can import, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, C. Terwiesch, Y. Xu, Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search, working paper, The Wharton School, Dec. 20, 2002; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 7(4), 330–346, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1050.0088
  • S. P. Anderson, A. de Palma, J.-F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, MIT Press, 1992.
  • G. van Ryzin, S. Mahajan, On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments, Management Science 45(11), 1496–1509, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.11.1496
  • D. McFadden, Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, 1974, 105–142.
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Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems II: The Empirical Measure of the Dense Graphon-Weighted Particle System Converges in Probability to the Averaged Graphon LawResearch Paper

Interacting diffusions on large weighted graphs

Classical mean field theory describes nnn exchangeable diffusions, each interacting with the empirical average of all the others. As n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞ the particles become independent copies of a McKean–Vlasov process (propagation of chaos). Many systems of interest are not exchangeable. Particles sit at the vertices of a network and interact only with their neighbours, as in models of opinion dynamics, epidemics on contact networks, synchronisation of oscillators and systemic risk in financial networks. When the network is dense and its adjacency structure converges, the natural limit object is a graphon, a symmetric measurable function G:[0,1]2→[0,1]G:[0,1]^2\to[0,1]G:[0,1]2→[0,1] that encodes the limiting edge density between "positions" u,v∈[0,1]u,v\in[0,1]u,v∈[0,1] (Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, 2012).

Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu (Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5), 2023) develop a law of large numbers for such systems. This mission formalizes their second main result, Theorem 3.1. Under cut-metric convergence of the interaction kernels, the empirical measure of the nnn-particle system converges in probability to the averaged law of a continuum graphon particle system. Related work includes Bhamidi, Budhiraja and Wu (Stochastic Process. Appl., 2019) on weakly interacting particles on inhomogeneous random graphs, Coppini, Dietert and Giacomin (Stoch. Dyn., 2020) on Erdős–Rényi graphs, and Bet, Coppini and Nardi (arXiv:2006.07670) on oscillators on dense random graphs.

Setting

Write I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure and fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0. Let Cd=C([0,T]:Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T]:\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T]:Rd) with the uniform norm ∥x∥∗,T=sup⁡s≤T∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,T}=\sup_{s\le T}|x_s|∥x∥∗,T​=sups≤T​∣xs​∣. On one probability space take independent initial states Xu(0)X_u(0)Xu​(0) with laws μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0) and independent ddd-dimensional Brownian motions BuB_uBu​, for all u∈Iu\in Iu∈I. The graphon particle system (2.1) for a graphon GGG and Lipschitz coefficients b,σb,\sigmab,σ is the continuum of nonlinear diffusions

Xu(t)=Xu(0)+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdb(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv ds+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdσ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv dBu(s),X_u(t)=X_u(0)+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,ds+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,dB_u(s),Xu​(t)=Xu​(0)+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvds+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvdBu​(s),

where μv,s\mu_{v,s}μv,s​ is the law of Xv(s)X_v(s)Xv​(s). Write μu∈P(Cd)\mu_u\in\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)μu​∈P(Cd​) for the path law of XuX_uXu​ and μˉ=∫Iμu du\bar\mu=\int_I\mu_u\,duμˉ​=∫I​μu​du for the averaged law.

The nnn-particle system (3.1) places particle iii at label i/ni/ni/n, starts it at Xi/n(0)X_{i/n}(0)Xi/n​(0), drives it by Bi/nB_{i/n}Bi/n​, and weights its interaction with particle jjj by ξijn\xi^n_{ij}ξijn​:

Xin(t)=Xi/n(0)+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn b(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) ds+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn σ(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) dBi/n(s).X^n_i(t)=X_{i/n}(0)+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,b(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,ds+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,\sigma(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,dB_{i/n}(s).Xin​(t)=Xi/n​(0)+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​b(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))ds+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​σ(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))dBi/n​(s).

The weights come from a step graphon GnG_nGn​, constant on the squares of the nnn-grid. Either ξijn=Gn(i/n,j/n)\xi^n_{ij}=G_n(i/n,j/n)ξijn​=Gn​(i/n,j/n), or ξijn=ξjin\xi^n_{ij}=\xi^n_{ji}ξijn​=ξjin​ are independent Bernoulli(Gn(i/n,j/n))(G_n(i/n,j/n))(Gn​(i/n,j/n)) variables for i≤ji\le ji≤j, independent of the noise (Condition 3.1). The kernels converge in the cut norm ∥W∥□=sup⁡S,T∣∫S×TW∣\|W\|_\square=\sup_{S,T}\big|\int_{S\times T}W\big|∥W∥□​=supS,T​​∫S×T​W​. Two further norms appear: the operator norm ∥W∥=sup⁡∥g∥∞≤1∫I∣∫IW(u,v)g(v) dv∣ du\|W\|=\sup_{\|g\|_\infty\le1}\int_I|\int_I W(u,v)g(v)\,dv|\,du∥W∥=sup∥g∥∞​≤1​∫I​∣∫I​W(u,v)g(v)dv∣du, and the Wasserstein-2 distance W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ on P(Cd)\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)P(Cd​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

Assume the initial laws are measurable in uuu with a uniform (2+ε)(2+\varepsilon)(2+ε)-moment and b,σb,\sigmab,σ are Lipschitz (Condition 2.1). Assume u↦μu(0)u\mapsto\mu_u(0)u↦μu​(0) is W2W_2W2​-continuous on each interval of a finite cover of III (Condition 2.2(a)), and that Condition 3.1 holds with Gn→GG_n\to GGn​→G in the cut metric. Then

μn:=1n∑i=1nδXin⟶μˉin P(Cd) in probability.\mu^n:=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\delta_{X^n_i}\longrightarrow\bar\mu\quad\text{in }\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)\text{ in probability}.μn:=n1​i=1∑n​δXin​​⟶μˉ​in P(Cd​) in probability.

If, in addition, GGG is continuous at (u,v)(u,v)(u,v) for a.e. vvv at each interior point uuu of the cover (Condition 2.2(b)), then

1n∑i=1nE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2⟶0.\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\longrightarrow0 .n1​i=1∑n​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​⟶0.

Milestones

In order: Remark 2.1, where cut-norm convergence implies operator-norm convergence; Theorem 2.1(a), continuity of u↦μuu\mapsto\mu_uu↦μu​ in W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​; the weak-LLN bound (6.4); the discretization bound (6.11); Lemma 6.1,

lim sup⁡n1n∑iE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2≤κ(M)lim sup⁡n∥Gn−G∥+κM−ε;\limsup_{n}\frac1n\sum_i\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\le\kappa(M)\limsup_n\|G_n-G\|+\kappa M^{-\varepsilon};nlimsup​n1​i∑​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​≤κ(M)nlimsup​∥Gn​−G∥+κM−ε;

Lemma 6.2, a law of large numbers for the continuum particles X1/n,…,Xn/nX_{1/n},\dots,X_{n/n}X1/n​,…,Xn/n​; the approximation of GGG by continuous graphons; the continuity (6.12) of μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ in the graphon, in a corrected qualitative form; the empirical coupling bound for W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​; and (6.14).

Significance

Theorem 3.1 shows that the averaged graphon law μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ is the correct macroscopic description of a dense heterogeneous particle system. This holds for deterministic weights and for Erdős–Rényi-type random weights, and the graphon may be discontinuous. It is the foundation for graphon mean field games and for control of large networked systems, where μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ replaces the intractable nnn-particle law. Under the regularity Condition 2.2(b) the convergence holds in L2L^2L2, particle by particle, along the natural coupling.

The result is proved in the paper (§6.1–§6.2). Nothing in it is formalized. A formal proof would produce reusable infrastructure: graphons, the cut and operator norms, Lusin approximation of graphons, Wasserstein distances between empirical measures, and laws of large numbers for random probability measures on path space. It also needs pathwise stability estimates for SDE systems built on Itô integrals, which goes well beyond what Mathlib has today.

Difficulty

The particles are neither exchangeable nor identically distributed. The classical propagation-of-chaos argument compares each particle with an i.i.d. copy of one McKean–Vlasov process, and it does not apply here. Each XinX^n_iXin​ must be compared with its own limit Xi/nX_{i/n}Xi/n​, and the error has two sources: the random or discretized weights ξijn\xi^n_{ij}ξijn​, and the replacement of GGG by GnG_nGn​. Cut-metric convergence controls Gn−GG_n-GGn​−G only through integrals against bounded test functions. The interaction term, however, integrates the unbounded function b(Xi/n(s),⋅)b(X_{i/n}(s),\cdot)b(Xi/n​(s),⋅) against varying laws μj/n,s\mu_{j/n,s}μj/n,s​. When GGG is merely measurable, the map u↦μuu\mapsto\mu_uu↦μu​ need not be continuous, and the error of replacing ∫I⋅ dv\int_I\cdot\,dv∫I​⋅dv by the average over the labels j/nj/nj/n need not vanish. The direct estimate therefore fails for (3.3) without Condition 2.2(b), and this is the case the goal must cover.

Formalization scope

The setting file GraphonMF.DenseLLN.Setting fixes these conventions:

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with the sup norm. All statements are invariant under this choice: constants are existential and the other conclusions are limits.
  • Processes are path-valued maps Ω→Cd\Omega\to\mathcal C_dΩ→Cd​, and Cd\mathcal C_dCd​ carries its Borel σ-algebra.
  • Each SDE is encoded through the published Itô-process predicate Peng1990.SMP.IsItoProcess. The filtrations are the uncompleted natural filtrations σ(Xu(0),Bu(r):r≤t)\sigma(X_u(0),B_u(r):r\le t)σ(Xu​(0),Bu​(r):r≤t) and σ(ξn,Xj/n(0),Bj/n(r):j≤n,r≤t)\sigma(\xi^n,X_{j/n}(0),B_{j/n}(r):j\le n,r\le t)σ(ξn,Xj/n​(0),Bj/n​(r):j≤n,r≤t).
  • A solution of (2.1) carries the membership of its law family in the class M\mathcal MM (measurable in uuu, uniformly bounded second moments), which makes every Bochner integral of the drift meaningful.
  • W2W_2W2​ and W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ are the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Expectations of nonnegative quantities are lower Lebesgue integrals.
  • Convergence in probability is topological: P(μn∉U)→0\mathbb P(\mu^n\notin U)\to0P(μn∈/U)→0 for every weak-topology neighbourhood UUU of μˉ\bar\muμˉ​.
  • The nnn-particle system shares the noise of the graphon system: particle iii (Lean index iii, label (i+1)/n(i+1)/n(i+1)/n) uses X(i+1)/n(0)X_{(i+1)/n}(0)X(i+1)/n​(0) and B(i+1)/nB_{(i+1)/n}B(i+1)/n​.
  • Each ξn\xi^nξn is assumed measurable.

Two encodings would trivialize the targets, and both are ruled out. A pointwise or almost-sure reading of (3.3), or convergence of ∫f dμn\int f\,d\mu^n∫fdμn for a single test function, is not the claim. Choosing the constants of Lemma 6.1 and (6.11) after the sequence (Gn)(G_n)(Gn​) would make them nearly empty, so they are chosen before it. A sorry-free check confirms that the solution predicates are satisfiable: with b=σ=0b=\sigma=0b=σ=0 the constant paths solve both systems.

Solvers will need several pieces of library work: the inequality ∥W∥∞→1≤4∥W∥□\|W\|_{\infty\to1}\le4\|W\|_\square∥W∥∞→1​≤4∥W∥□​, BDG-type moment bounds for the Itô integrals of Peng's library, Gronwall estimates, Lusin's theorem on [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2, and the metrization of weak convergence on P(Cd)\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)P(Cd​) (Lévy–Prokhorov). Contributions to any of these are welcome independently of the goal. The paper's proofs are in its §5 (Theorem 2.1) and §6.1–§6.2 (Lemmas 6.1, 6.2 and Theorem 3.1).

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty, R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5):3587–3619, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1901
  • L. Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS Colloquium Publications 60, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1090/coll/060
  • S. Bhamidi, A. Budhiraja, R. Wu, Weakly interacting particle systems on inhomogeneous random graphs, Stochastic Process. Appl. 129:2174–2206, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2018.06.014
  • F. Coppini, H. Dietert, G. Giacomin, A law of large numbers and large deviations for interacting diffusions on Erdős–Rényi graphs, Stoch. Dyn. 20:2050010, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219493720500100
  • G. Bet, F. Coppini, F. R. Nardi, Weakly interacting oscillators on dense random graphs, arXiv preprint, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.07670
  • A.-S. Sznitman, Topics in propagation of chaos, École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XIX, LNM 1464, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0085169
15 thms1 active userReviewed
Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems III: With Edge Weights Sampled From a Lipschitz Graphon, Each Particle Is Within κ/n of Its Graphon Limit in Mean SquareResearch Paper

Interacting diffusions on large heterogeneous networks

Classical mean-field theory describes nnn diffusions that interact symmetrically, each feeling the empirical average of all the others, and shows that as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞ every particle behaves like an independent copy of a single McKean–Vlasov process. Many systems of interest are not symmetric: neurons, agents in a financial network, or oscillators interact through a graph, and particles in different parts of the graph feel different neighbourhoods. A graphon G:[0,1]2→[0,1]G:[0,1]^2\to[0,1]G:[0,1]2→[0,1] is the limit object of dense graph sequences (Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS 2012), and it is the natural way to describe the interaction structure of such systems in the limit.

Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu (Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5), 2023) study a continuum of diffusions indexed by labels u∈[0,1]u\in[0,1]u∈[0,1] whose interaction is weighted by a graphon, and prove laws of large numbers and rates of convergence for nnn-particle systems on graphs sampled from the graphon. This mission targets their uniform rate of convergence for weights sampled from a Lipschitz graphon (Theorem 3.2).

Setting

Write I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure. Fix a horizon T∈(0,∞)T\in(0,\infty)T∈(0,∞) and let Cd=C([0,T]:Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T]:\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T]:Rd) with ∥x∥∗,t=sup⁡0≤s≤t∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,t}=\sup_{0\le s\le t}|x_s|∥x∥∗,t​=sup0≤s≤t​∣xs​∣.

On one probability space, {Bu:u∈I}\{B_u:u\in I\}{Bu​:u∈I} are i.i.d. ddd-dimensional Brownian motions and {Xu(0):u∈I}\{X_u(0):u\in I\}{Xu​(0):u∈I} are independent initial states with laws μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0), independent of the Brownian motions. Given a graphon GGG and coefficients b,σb,\sigmab,σ, the graphon particle system (2.1) is

Xu(t)=Xu(0)+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdb(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv ds+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdσ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv dBu(s),X_u(t)=X_u(0)+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,ds+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,dB_u(s),Xu​(t)=Xu​(0)+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvds+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvdBu​(s),

with μu,t=L(Xu(t))\mu_{u,t}=\mathcal L(X_u(t))μu,t​=L(Xu​(t)). The particles are independent but not identically distributed, and their laws are coupled through the dvdvdv-integral.

The nnn-particle system (3.1) uses the same randomness at the labels i/ni/ni/n:

Xin(t)=Xi/n(0)+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn b(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) ds+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn σ(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) dBi/n(s),X^n_i(t)=X_{i/n}(0)+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,b(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,ds+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,\sigma(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,dB_{i/n}(s),Xin​(t)=Xi/n​(0)+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​b(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))ds+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​σ(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))dBi/n​(s),

so particle iii and the continuum particle at u=i/nu=i/nu=i/n share their initial state and Brownian motion.

The hypotheses are:

  • Condition 2.1: u↦μu(0)u\mapsto\mu_u(0)u↦μu​(0) is measurable, sup⁡uE∣Xu(0)∣2+ε<∞\sup_u\mathbb E|X_u(0)|^{2+\varepsilon}<\inftysupu​E∣Xu​(0)∣2+ε<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, and bbb, σ\sigmaσ are Lipschitz in both arguments.
  • Condition 2.3: there are finitely many intervals I1,…,INI_1,\dots,I_NI1​,…,IN​ covering III and a κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 with W2(μu1(0),μu2(0))≤κ∣u1−u2∣W_2(\mu_{u_1}(0),\mu_{u_2}(0))\le\kappa|u_1-u_2|W2​(μu1​​(0),μu2​​(0))≤κ∣u1​−u2​∣ on each IiI_iIi​ and ∣G(u1,v1)−G(u2,v2)∣≤κ(∣u1−u2∣+∣v1−v2∣)|G(u_1,v_1)-G(u_2,v_2)|\le\kappa(|u_1-u_2|+|v_1-v_2|)∣G(u1​,v1​)−G(u2​,v2​)∣≤κ(∣u1​−u2​∣+∣v1​−v2​∣) on each block Ii×IjI_i\times I_jIi​×Ij​. The graphon may jump across block boundaries.
  • Condition 3.2: the weights are sampled from GGG itself, either deterministically, ξijn=G(i/n,j/n)\xi^n_{ij}=G(i/n,j/n)ξijn​=G(i/n,j/n), or as a random graph, ξijn=ξjin∼Bernoulli(G(i/n,j/n))\xi^n_{ij}=\xi^n_{ji}\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(G(i/n,j/n))ξijn​=ξjin​∼Bernoulli(G(i/n,j/n)) independently for i≤ji\le ji≤j and independently of the noise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (p. 3596)

Under Conditions 2.1, 2.3 and 3.2 there is κ∈(0,∞)\kappa\in(0,\infty)κ∈(0,∞) such that

max⁡i=1,…,nE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2≤κn∀n∈N.\max_{i=1,\dots,n}\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\le\frac{\kappa}{n}\qquad\forall n\in\mathbb N.i=1,…,nmax​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​≤nκ​∀n∈N.

Milestones (§6.3, in attack order)

  • (6.15): E∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,t2\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,t}E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,t2​ is bounded by κ\kappaκ times the time-integrated mean-square mismatch between the finite-nnn drift and diffusion and their graphon counterparts.
  • The drift mismatch is split by (6.16) into three terms T~sn,1,T~sn,2,T~sn,3\tilde T^{n,1}_s,\tilde T^{n,2}_s,\tilde T^{n,3}_sT~sn,1​,T~sn,2​,T~sn,3​, bounded by
T~sn,1≤2κmax⁡iE∣Xin(s)−Xi/n(s)∣2  (6.17),T~sn,2≤κn  (6.18),T~sn,3≤κn2  (6.19).\tilde T^{n,1}_s\le2\kappa\max_i\mathbb E|X^n_i(s)-X_{i/n}(s)|^2\ \ (6.17),\qquad\tilde T^{n,2}_s\le\frac{\kappa}{n}\ \ (6.18),\qquad\tilde T^{n,3}_s\le\frac{\kappa}{n^2}\ \ (6.19).T~sn,1​≤2κimax​E∣Xin​(s)−Xi/n​(s)∣2  (6.17),T~sn,2​≤nκ​  (6.18),T~sn,3​≤n2κ​  (6.19).
  • Theorem 2.1(b) (p. 3593): under Condition 2.3, W2,T(μu,μv)≤κ∣u−v∣W_{2,T}(\mu_u,\mu_v)\le\kappa|u-v|W2,T​(μu​,μv​)≤κ∣u−v∣ whenever u,vu,vu,v lie in the same interval IiI_iIi​. It is used in (6.19).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.2 gives a quantitative propagation of chaos for heterogeneous interactions: with weights sampled from a blockwise Lipschitz graphon, every particle of the finite system, not just an average particle, is within O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2) in root-mean-square path distance of the continuum particle with the same label. The rate matches the classical mean-field rate (e.g. Sznitman 1991), so heterogeneity of the interaction costs nothing in the exponent. The same estimate covers the deterministic weighted graph and the random graph sampled from GGG (in the annealed sense), and it is the dense counterpart of Theorem 4.2 for percolated graphs.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (§6.3); it has no machine-checked proof. A formal development would produce a reusable account of graphon particle systems and their finite-nnn approximations: graphon-weighted McKean–Vlasov drifts, couplings through shared noise, and the decomposition of the interaction error into a Lipschitz feedback term, a law-of-large-numbers term and a Riemann-sum discretization term.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to compare XinX^n_iXin​ with Xi/nX_{i/n}Xi/n​ directly and close a Gronwall inequality. The difficulty is that the comparison involves the empirical, graph-weighted average of the other particles, which is neither the graphon average nor an average of independent terms. Three different errors must be controlled simultaneously and uniformly in iii: the feedback of all particles' errors into particle iii, the fluctuation of a sum of independent but non-identically distributed terms whose weights may themselves be random, and the error of replacing an integral over labels by a sum over the grid {j/n}\{j/n\}{j/n}. The last needs regularity of the law μu\mu_uμu​ in the label uuu, which is itself a theorem about the graphon system (Theorem 2.1(b)) and fails at block boundaries of GGG, where only the small number of boundary cells saves the 1/n21/n^21/n2 rate. Averaging over iii, as in the law of large numbers of Theorem 3.1, is not enough: the goal bounds the maximum.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with the sup norm; matrices are measured entrywise. All statements are norm-invariant because every constant is existential. Particle i∈{1,…,n}i\in\{1,\dots,n\}i∈{1,…,n} is Lean's i : Fin n with label (i+1)/n(i+1)/n(i+1)/n; time is ℝ≥0; III is Mathlib's unitInterval.
  • Brownian motions, Itô integrals and Itô processes are the published Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic definitions; an SDE with random initial value X(0)X(0)X(0) is stated as an Itô process for X−X(0)X-X(0)X−X(0). Each continuum particle uses the natural filtration of (Xu(0),Bu)(X_u(0),B_u)(Xu​(0),Bu​); the nnn-particle system uses the natural filtration of the weights, initial states and Brownian motions at the labels.
  • W2W_2W2​ and W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ are the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance 2, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; expectations of nonnegative quantities are lower Lebesgue integrals.
  • A solution of (2.1) is required to have continuous paths, measurable path maps, and a law family in the class M\mathcal MM (measurable in uuu, uniformly bounded second moments), as Proposition 2.1 asserts; this makes every inner integral meaningful.
  • The constant κ\kappaκ is chosen after the data and before nnn and iii. A κ\kappaκ chosen after nnn, a bound on the average over iii, or a solution predicate that no process satisfies would trivialize the goal; the first two are excluded by the statement, and a sanity check exhibits the zero-coefficient system as a solution of both systems.
  • Condition 2.2 is not assumed, and the weights come from GGG, not from a step graphon GnG_nGn​; no cut-metric hypothesis appears.
  • Needed infrastructure: Doob/Burkholder–Davis–Gundy for Itô integrals, Gronwall's inequality in integrated form, moment bounds for the graphon system, Kantorovich–Rubinstein-type duality for Lipschitz test functions, and independence of functionals of independent noises. Proofs of the milestones, of Theorem 2.1(b), and of the goal are all welcome; the paper's proofs are in its §5–§6.

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty, R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5):3587–3619, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1901
  • L. Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS Colloquium Publications 60, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1090/coll/060
  • A.-S. Sznitman, Topics in propagation of chaos, École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XIX, LNM 1464, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0085169
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966–979, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications: With Fixed Pick-up Times, the Offline Taxi Routing MIO Formulation (5)-(14) Is IntegralResearch Paper

Motivation

Taxi fleets, ride-hailing services and dial-a-ride systems assign incoming customer requests to vehicles under time constraints. Bertsimas, Jaillet and Martin (Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications, Operations Research 67(1), 2019) model the online taxi routing problem, a special case of the online dial-a-ride problem with time windows in which a vehicle serves one customer at a time. They show that mixed-integer optimization over a sparsified graph can dispatch thousands of New York City taxis in real time. The offline problem, in which all requests are known in advance, is the building block of their online algorithms, and its structure determines which offline methods are fast.

The structural fact this mission formalizes is the paper's Theorem 1. When every customer has a fixed pick-up time, the mixed-integer formulation of the offline problem is integral: its linear relaxation has only binary extreme points. So the problem is a linear program in disguise, which the paper uses for its maxflow heuristic.

The source is the authors' accepted manuscript (March 2018, 46 pages); every page and display number below refers to that manuscript, not to the typeset article.

Setting

Let C\mathcal CC be a finite set of customers and K\mathcal KK a finite set of taxis. Customer ccc has a pick-up time window [tcmin⁡,tcmax⁡][t^{\min}_c, t^{\max}_c][tcmin​,tcmax​], and taxi kkk becomes available at time tkinitt^{\mathrm{init}}_ktkinit​. For customers c′,cc', cc′,c, the number Tc′,cT_{c',c}Tc′,c​ is the travel time from serving c′c'c′ to picking up ccc, and Rc′,cR_{c',c}Rc′,c​ is the profit earned when ccc is served right after c′c'c′. The numbers Tk,cT_{k,c}Tk,c​ and Rk,cR_{k,c}Rk,c​ are the travel time and profit when ccc is the first customer of taxi kkk.

The graph G\mathcal GG has the customers and taxis as nodes. Between customers there is an arc c→c′c \to c'c→c′ exactly when

tcmin⁡+Tc,c′≤tc′max⁡.(1)t^{\min}_c + T_{c,c'} \le t^{\max}_{c'}. \qquad (1)tcmin​+Tc,c′​≤tc′max​.(1)

Taxi nodes have outgoing arcs only. Throughout the paper G\mathcal GG is assumed acyclic (§2.1, p. 7).

The mixed-integer formulation (5)–(14) (pp. 11–12) has binary variables xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ (customer ccc is picked up right after c′c'c′), yk,cy_{k,c}yk,c​ (ccc is the first customer of taxi kkk) and pcp_cpc​ (ccc is served), and continuous pick-up times tct_ctc​. It maximizes ∑k,cRk,cyk,c+∑c′,cRc′,cxc′,c\sum_{k,c} R_{k,c} y_{k,c} + \sum_{c',c} R_{c',c} x_{c',c}∑k,c​Rk,c​yk,c​+∑c′,c​Rc′,c​xc′,c​ subject to the flow constraints

pc=∑kyk,c+∑c′xc′,c,∑cxc′,c≤pc′,∑cyk,c≤1,(6)–(8)p_c = \sum_k y_{k,c} + \sum_{c'} x_{c',c}, \qquad \sum_c x_{c',c} \le p_{c'}, \qquad \sum_c y_{k,c} \le 1, \qquad (6)\text{–}(8)pc​=k∑​yk,c​+c′∑​xc′,c​,c∑​xc′,c​≤pc′​,c∑​yk,c​≤1,(6)–(8)

the binary constraints (9)–(11), and the time constraints

tcmin⁡≤tc≤tcmax⁡,(12)tc−tc′≥(tcmin⁡−tc′max⁡)+(Tc′,c−(tcmin⁡−tc′max⁡))xc′,c,(13)tc≥tcmin⁡+(tkinit+Tk,c−tcmin⁡) yk,c.(14)\begin{aligned} t^{\min}_c &\le t_c \le t^{\max}_c, &(12)\\ t_c - t_{c'} &\ge (t^{\min}_c - t^{\max}_{c'}) + \big(T_{c',c} - (t^{\min}_c - t^{\max}_{c'})\big) x_{c',c}, &(13)\\ t_c &\ge t^{\min}_c + (t^{\mathrm{init}}_k + T_{k,c} - t^{\min}_c)\, y_{k,c}. &(14) \end{aligned}tcmin​tc​−tc′​tc​​≤tc​≤tcmax​,≥(tcmin​−tc′max​)+(Tc′,c​−(tcmin​−tc′max​))xc′,c​,≥tcmin​+(tkinit​+Tk,c​−tcmin​)yk,c​.​(12)(13)(14)​

Constraints (13) and (14) are strengthened Big-M constraints: with xc′,c=1x_{c',c} = 1xc′,c​=1, (13) reads tc−tc′≥Tc′,ct_c - t_{c'} \ge T_{c',c}tc​−tc′​≥Tc′,c​.

The LP relaxation replaces (9)–(11) by 0≤x,y,p≤10 \le x, y, p \le 10≤x,y,p≤1. A formulation is integral when every extreme point of its LP relaxation has x,y,p∈{0,1}x, y, p \in \{0,1\}x,y,p∈{0,1}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 13)

If tcmin⁡=tcmax⁡=tc∗t^{\min}_c = t^{\max}_c = t^*_ctcmin​=tcmax​=tc∗​ for every customer ccc (and G\mathcal GG is acyclic, the standing assumption), then

every extreme point (x,y,p,t) of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies xc′,c, yk,c, pc∈{0,1}.\text{every extreme point } (x,y,p,t) \text{ of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies } x_{c',c},\, y_{k,c},\, p_c \in \{0,1\}.every extreme point (x,y,p,t) of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies xc′,c​,yk,c​,pc​∈{0,1}.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1 and the remark before it)

  1. Display (15), p. 13: with fixed windows, (12) gives t=t∗t = t^*t=t∗, and (13) becomes (Tc′,c−(tc∗−tc′∗))xc′,c≤0\big(T_{c',c} - (t^*_c - t^*_{c'})\big) x_{c',c} \le 0(Tc′,c​−(tc∗​−tc′∗​))xc′,c​≤0.
  2. p. 13: with fixed times the relaxation is exactly {t=t∗}\{t = t^*\}{t=t∗} times the relaxed flow system (6)–(11). In that system xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ is removed when Tc′,c>tc∗−tc′∗T_{c',c} > t^*_c - t^*_{c'}Tc′,c​>tc∗​−tc′∗​, and yk,cy_{k,c}yk,c​ is removed when tkinit+Tk,c>tc∗t^{\mathrm{init}}_k + T_{k,c} > t^*_ctkinit​+Tk,c​>tc∗​.
  3. pp. 12–13: the relaxed flow system (6)–(11), on any subset of arcs, has 0/10/10/1 extreme points.

Three further statements from the same pages are included as plain theorems. The first is the paragraph after Theorem 1: a solution with fixed times tc∗∈[tcmin⁡,tcmax⁡]t^*_c \in [t^{\min}_c, t^{\max}_c]tc∗​∈[tcmin​,tcmax​] is feasible for the formulation with windows. The other two are the conditions (3) and (4) of §2.1, which exclude 2-cycles and all cycles of G\mathcal GG.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns a mixed-integer program into a linear program when the time windows shrink to points. The fixed-time problem can then be solved by the simplex method or by a max-flow algorithm. By the paragraph after the theorem, any choice of times inside the windows then gives a feasible solution of the original problem. This is the maxflow heuristic, and the paper reports it to be near-optimal when windows are small. The theorem also locates the source of the integrality gap: the time constraints (12)–(14), not the flow structure.

The result is proved on the page, briefly. No machine-checked version exists. Formalizing it means making the page's "equivalent to a formulation in which variable xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ is removed" precise. The extreme points of the relaxation in (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)-space must correspond to those of a flow polytope in (x,y,p)(x,y,p)(x,y,p)-space. The integrality of that flow polytope must then be proved, which the page settles by appeal to max-flow.

Difficulty

The reduction to the flow system is elementary linear arithmetic. The substance is milestone 3. The system (6)–(8) is not literally in the standard form of a network-flow problem: it mixes an equation defining pcp_cpc​ with inequalities, has unit upper bounds, and allows arbitrary arc sets, including cycles and loops (c,c)(c,c)(c,c). Neither the integrality theorem for standard-form network flows nor total unimodularity can be applied without first exhibiting a network and checking that the polytope corresponds to its flow polytope. Mathlib has the definition of total unimodularity but not the Hoffman–Kruskal theorem.

The page's phrase "the formulations are equivalent" also hides a step: the goal speaks of extreme points in (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)-space, while the flow system lives in (x,y,p)(x,y,p)(x,y,p)-space, and the two notions of extreme point have to be related explicitly.

Formalization scope

  • Customers and taxis are arbitrary finite types; empty sets of customers or taxis are allowed, and the statements remain the paper's there.
  • A point (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t) is an element of the real vector space (C×C→R)×(K×C→R)×(C→R)×(C→R)(\mathcal C \times \mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal K \times \mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal C \to \mathbb R)(C×C→R)×(K×C→R)×(C→R)×(C→R). Extreme points are Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ.
  • All constraints are indexed by all pairs, the diagonal c′=cc' = cc′=c included, exactly as printed. The variables are not restricted to the arcs of G\mathcal GG.
  • No sign conditions are imposed on the data TTT, RRR, tinitt^{\mathrm{init}}tinit.
  • Fixed times are the hypothesis tcmin⁡=tcmax⁡t^{\min}_c = t^{\max}_ctcmin​=tcmax​ for all ccc. The acyclicity of G\mathcal GG is kept on the goal as the paper's standing assumption, although the conclusion does not need it; milestones and companions omit it, which makes them stronger.
  • Milestone 3 is stated for an arbitrary arc subset, which covers both the system (6)–(11) as printed and the system with variables removed that the proof uses.

Two trivializing readings are ruled out. "Integral" is the extreme-point property of the relaxation, not the existence of an integral optimum for a given objective, and not the integrality of the mixed-integer feasible set, which holds by definition. Integrality is never demanded of the continuous times ttt.

A complete development needs an integrality theorem for flow polytopes with integer bounds, which Mathlib does not have. Such a result is reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of general network-flow integrality lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, P. Jaillet, S. Martin, Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications, Operations Research 67(1):143–162, 2019; authors' accepted manuscript, March 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1763
  • A. J. Hoffman, J. B. Kruskal, Integral boundary points of convex polyhedra, in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881987-013
  • J.-F. Cordeau, G. Laporte, The dial-a-ride problem: models and algorithms, Annals of Operations Research 153:29–46, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-007-0170-8
5 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes 5: Under Positive Harris Recurrence a Risk-Neutral Optimal Stationary Policy Is Optimal for Power-Utility Average CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical Markov decision theory minimizes expected cost. A decision maker who dislikes variability, such as an insurer, a portfolio manager or an operator of a service system, may instead evaluate a random cost YYY by its certainty equivalent U−1(E[U(Y)])U^{-1}(\mathbb E[U(Y)])U−1(E[U(Y)]) for an increasing utility (disutility) function UUU. Bäuerle and Rieder (More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, Math. Oper. Res. 39(1), 2014; authors' manuscript at KIT 1000039663) develop dynamic programming for this criterion with general UUU. Classical risk-sensitive MDPs, studied since Howard and Matheson (1972), use the exponential utility, and for it the average cost problem differs considerably from the risk-neutral one (Cavazos-Cadena and Fernández-Gaucherand 2000; Di Masi and Stettner 1999). Their §5 asks what happens in the long run. The average cost per stage is evaluated through a power utility U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ. Does risk sensitivity change which stationary policy is optimal?

This mission formalizes their answer, Theorem 5.2, and the results its proof uses (manuscript p. 17).

Setting

A controlled Markov process in discrete time has a standard Borel state space EEE and action space AAA. A measurable set D⊆E×AD\subseteq E\times AD⊆E×A lists the admissible state–action pairs, and every D(x)={a:(x,a)∈D}D(x)=\{a:(x,a)\in D\}D(x)={a:(x,a)∈D} is nonempty. A transition law Q(⋅∣x,a)Q(\cdot\mid x,a)Q(⋅∣x,a) gives the distribution of the next state, and a measurable cost ccc satisfies 0<c‾≤c≤cˉ0<\underline c\le c\le\bar c0<c​≤c≤cˉ on DDD.

A history-dependent policy σ=(gn)n≥0\sigma=(g_n)_{n\ge0}σ=(gn​)n≥0​ chooses the action An=gn(X0,A0,…,Xn)∈D(Xn)A_n=g_n(X_0,A_0,\dots,X_n)\in D(X_n)An​=gn​(X0​,A0​,…,Xn​)∈D(Xn​) measurably from the past. The set of all such policies is Π\PiΠ. Each σ\sigmaσ and initial state xxx determine a probability measure Pxσ\mathbb P^\sigma_xPxσ​ on trajectories, with X0=xX_0=xX0​=x and Xn+1∼Q(⋅∣Xn,An)X_{n+1}\sim Q(\cdot\mid X_n,A_n)Xn+1​∼Q(⋅∣Xn​,An​). The accumulated cost is Cn=∑k=0n−1c(Xk,Ak)C^n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}c(X_k,A_k)Cn=∑k=0n−1​c(Xk​,Ak​).

A stationary policy π=(f,f,… )\pi=(f,f,\dots)π=(f,f,…) uses a measurable decision rule fff with f(x)∈D(x)f(x)\in D(x)f(x)∈D(x) at every stage. Under it, (Xn)(X_n)(Xn​) is the Markov chain with kernel Pf(x,⋅)=Q(⋅∣x,f(x))P_f(x,\cdot)=Q(\cdot\mid x,f(x))Pf​(x,⋅)=Q(⋅∣x,f(x)).

Fix γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ. The risk-sensitive average cost (5.1) and its optimal value are

Jσ(x)=lim sup⁡n→∞1n U−1(Exσ[U(Cn)]),J(x)=inf⁡σ∈ΠJσ(x).J_\sigma(x)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\,U^{-1}\Big(\mathbb E^\sigma_x\big[U(C^n)\big]\Big),\qquad J(x)=\inf_{\sigma\in\Pi}J_\sigma(x).Jσ​(x)=n→∞limsup​n1​U−1(Exσ​[U(Cn)]),J(x)=σ∈Πinf​Jσ​(x).

The risk-neutral average cost is ρσ(x)=lim sup⁡n1nExσ[Cn]\rho_\sigma(x)=\limsup_n\frac1n\mathbb E^\sigma_x[C^n]ρσ​(x)=limsupn​n1​Exσ​[Cn], the case γ=1\gamma=1γ=1.

A Markov chain is Harris recurrent if, for some nonzero σ\sigmaσ-finite measure φ\varphiφ, every set BBB with φ(B)>0\varphi(B)>0φ(B)>0 is visited infinitely often almost surely from every starting point. It is positive Harris recurrent if it also has an invariant probability measure (Meyn and Tweedie 2009, §§9–10). The MDP is called positive Harris recurrent if the state chain of every stationary policy is.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

Let γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1 and let the MDP be positive Harris recurrent. If π∗=(f∗,f∗,… )\pi^*=(f^*,f^*,\dots)π∗=(f∗,f∗,…) satisfies ρπ∗(x)≤ρσ(x)\rho_{\pi^*}(x)\le\rho_\sigma(x)ρπ∗​(x)≤ρσ​(x) for all σ∈Π\sigma\in\Piσ∈Π and x∈Ex\in Ex∈E, then

Jπ∗(x)≤Jσ(x)for all σ∈Π, x∈E,soJπ∗=J.J_{\pi^*}(x)\le J_\sigma(x)\quad\text{for all }\sigma\in\Pi,\ x\in E,\qquad\text{so}\qquad J_{\pi^*}=J .Jπ∗​(x)≤Jσ​(x)for all σ∈Π, x∈E,soJπ∗​=J.

The optimal policy does not depend on γ\gammaγ.

Milestones

  1. §5.1, p. 17. For γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, homogeneity gives Jσ(x)=lim sup⁡nU−1(Exσ[U(Cn/n)])J_\sigma(x)=\limsup_n U^{-1}(\mathbb E^\sigma_x[U(C^n/n)])Jσ​(x)=limsupn​U−1(Exσ​[U(Cn/n)]).
  2. Theorem 5.1. If the state chain of a stationary policy π\piπ is positive Harris recurrent, there is a number ρ\rhoρ with
lim⁡n→∞1n(Exπ[(Cn)γ])1/γ=ρ=lim⁡n→∞1nExπ[Cn]for all γ>0, x∈E.\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\Big(\mathbb E^\pi_x\big[(C^n)^\gamma\big]\Big)^{1/\gamma}=\rho=\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\mathbb E^\pi_x[C^n]\qquad\text{for all }\gamma>0,\ x\in E.n→∞lim​n1​(Exπ​[(Cn)γ])1/γ=ρ=n→∞lim​n1​Exπ​[Cn]for all γ>0, x∈E.
  1. Proof of Theorem 5.2. For γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1 and every σ∈Π\sigma\in\Piσ∈Π: ρσ(x)≤Jσ(x)\rho_\sigma(x)\le J_\sigma(x)ρσ​(x)≤Jσ​(x).

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.2 reduces a risk-sensitive long-run problem to a classical one. Under positive Harris recurrence, any stationary policy that is optimal for the expected average cost, for instance one obtained from the average-cost optimality equation, is also optimal for every convex power criterion γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1, simultaneously. Theorem 5.1 explains why: along a positive Harris recurrent chain the empirical average cost Cn/nC^n/nCn/n converges almost surely to a constant, so in the limit the power utility sees no randomness at all. The contrast is with exponential utility, where the risk-sensitive average cost generally differs from the risk-neutral one and leads to a multiplicative Poisson equation. Positive homogeneity of the utility is what removes the risk effect.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known they have no machine-checked proof, and the platform has no strong law of large numbers for Harris chains on general state spaces. The mission produces a Borel MDP with history-dependent policies and Ionescu-Tulcea path measures, a reusable definition of (positive) Harris recurrence for an arbitrary Markov kernel, and a formal comparison of risk-neutral and risk-sensitive average costs. Each milestone is a self-contained target.

Difficulty

Milestones 1 and 3 are elementary once the expectations are handled correctly: Cn≥0C^n\ge0Cn≥0 holds only almost surely, and Jensen's inequality has to be applied with real powers. The central difficulty is Theorem 5.1. It needs the ergodic theorem for positive Harris recurrent chains, Cn/n→∫c(x,f(x)) μf(dx)C^n/n\to\int c(x,f(x))\,\mu_f(dx)Cn/n→∫c(x,f(x))μf​(dx) almost surely from every initial state (Meyn and Tweedie, Theorem 17.0.1). It also needs an identification of the state process under Pxπ\mathbb P^\pi_xPxπ​ with the canonical chain of PfP_fPf​. The natural first idea, to quote a convergence theorem in total variation, fails: positive Harris recurrence allows periodic chains, for which Pfn(x,⋅)P_f^n(x,\cdot)Pfn​(x,⋅) need not converge. Pathwise averages converge, marginal laws need not, and the argument has to work with the former.

Formalization scope

  • EEE and AAA are standard Borel spaces. No topology is used, and the continuity–compactness conditions (CC) of §2 play no role in §5. D(x)≠∅D(x)\neq\emptysetD(x)=∅ for every xxx is a standing hypothesis.
  • Policies are deterministic and history-dependent, gn:(E×A)n×E→Ag_n:(E\times A)^n\times E\to Agn​:(E×A)n×E→A with gn(hn)∈D(xn)g_n(h_n)\in D(x_n)gn​(hn​)∈D(xn​). Pxσ\mathbb P^\sigma_xPxσ​ is Mathlib's Kernel.trajMeasure on (E×A)N0(E\times A)^{\mathbb N_0}(E×A)N0​. Stationary policies act through gn(hn)=f(xn)g_n(h_n)=f(x_n)gn​(hn​)=f(xn​).
  • (5.1) is defined only for U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ, with Real.rpow. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 all terms of the sequences lie in [c‾,cˉ][\underline c,\bar c][c​,cˉ], so real limits superior are meaningful. The term n=0n=0n=0 (Lean's 1/0=01/0=01/0=0) is irrelevant.
  • The risk-neutral average cost, which the paper leaves undefined, is the lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup of 1nExσ[Cn]\frac1n\mathbb E^\sigma_x[C^n]n1​Exσ​[Cn]. Risk-neutral optimality of π∗\pi^*π∗ and the conclusion of Theorem 5.2 both range over all history-dependent policies. Restricting either to stationary policies would change the theorem.
  • Harris recurrence is defined from scratch on the canonical chain of a Markov kernel and kept equivalent to Meyn–Tweedie's notion. Weakening it to "has an invariant probability", or strengthening it to total-variation ergodicity (which excludes periodic chains), would make a different theorem. Neither is acceptable.
  • Positive Harris recurrence is assumed for every stationary policy, exactly as in the paper. Theorem 5.4 (vanishing discount) and Corollary 5.3 (finite unichain models) are outside the mission.

Contributions are welcome at every level. Reusable pieces, such as the identification of the state process with the chain of PfP_fPf​, the strong law for positive Harris chains, or bounded-convergence lemmas for path measures, are valuable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1):105–120, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0601 (authors' manuscript: https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000039663)
  • S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626630
  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance, Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18324-9
  • R. A. Howard and J. E. Matheson, Risk-sensitive Markov decision processes, Management Science 18(7):356–369, 1972. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.18.7.356
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes 2: The Finite-Horizon Discounted Problem Is Solved by Value Iteration on the State Extended by Accumulated Cost and DiscountResearch Paper

Motivation

Sequential decisions often have costs whose timing matters. A controller may choose an action now, observe a random next state, and choose again. Ordinary expected-cost minimization averages the sum of the costs. A risk-sensitive criterion first applies an increasing function UUU to the total cost and then takes its expectation. The curvature of UUU changes how uncertain costs affect the ranking of policies: convex utility penalizes variability in a cost-minimization problem, while concave utility has the opposite tendency. Bäuerle and Rieder study this criterion for controlled Markov processes with general continuous increasing utility, rather than fixing an exponential function. Their finite-horizon discounted result is Theorem 3.6, pp. 10–12 of the authors' manuscript.

Discounting gives early and late costs different weights. For linear UUU, the remaining expected cost can be described using only the current physical state. For general UUU, the effect of a future cost also depends on what has already been paid and on the discount weight currently attached to the next cost. The mission targets the paper's finite-horizon treatment of these two additional quantities. The infinite-horizon problem is a separate part of the paper.

Setting

The state space EEE and action space AAA are Borel spaces. At state xxx, the nonempty set D(x)D(x)D(x) contains the actions that may be chosen. If action a∈D(x)a\in D(x)a∈D(x) is selected, the next state has distribution Q(⋅∣x,a)Q(\cdot\mid x,a)Q(⋅∣x,a) and the stage cost is c(x,a)c(x,a)c(x,a). The cost is measurable and bounded between positive constants c‾\underline cc​ and c‾\overline cc. The discount factor satisfies 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and U:[0,∞)→RU:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb RU:[0,∞)→R is continuous and strictly increasing. The paper imposes its compactness and continuity conditions (CC) on UUU, DDD, ccc, and QQQ; these are stated in the model item and correspond to §2, pp. 3–4.

A history policy σ=(g0,g1,…)\sigma=(g_0,g_1,\ldots)σ=(g0​,g1​,…) chooses AnA_nAn​ measurably from the states and actions observed through time nnn. Starting from xxx, it induces a law for the state-action trajectory. The first nnn stages incur the discounted cost Cβn=∑k=0n−1βkc(Xk,Ak)C^n_\beta=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\beta^k c(X_k,A_k)Cβn​=∑k=0n−1​βkc(Xk​,Ak​), with Cβ0=0C^0_\beta=0Cβ0​=0. The paper minimizes Exσ[U(CβN)]E_x^\sigma[U(C^N_\beta)]Exσ​[U(CβN​)] over every admissible history policy. The inverse utility appearing in the paper's original certainty-equivalent criterion can be omitted when selecting a minimizer because UUU is strictly increasing §2, p. 3; §3.3, p. 10.

The extended state is E^=E×[0,∞)×(0,1]\hat E=E\times[0,\infty)\times(0,1]E^=E×[0,∞)×(0,1]. Its coordinates (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) record the current physical state, accumulated cost, and current discount weight. Define Vnσ(x,y,z)=Exσ[U(y+zCβn)]V_{n\sigma}(x,y,z)=E_x^\sigma[U(y+zC^n_\beta)]Vnσ​(x,y,z)=Exσ​[U(y+zCβn​)] and Vn=inf⁡σ∈ΠVnσV_n=\inf_{\sigma\in\Pi}V_{n\sigma}Vn​=infσ∈Π​Vnσ​. A measurable extended-state decision rule fff chooses an action in D(x)D(x)D(x). The paper's operator TfT_fTf​ integrates a continuation value at (x′,y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),zβ)(x',y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),z\beta)(x′,y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),zβ); TTT takes the infimum of the same integral over D(x)D(x)D(x) equations (3.8)–(3.9), pp. 10–11.

Formalization targets

The first target identifies the cost iteration of any sequence of extended-state rules π=(f0,f1,…)\pi=(f_0,f_1,\ldots)π=(f0​,f1​,…):

Vnπ=Tf0⋯Tfn−1U,1≤n≤N.V_{n\pi}=T_{f_0}\cdots T_{f_{n-1}}U,\qquad 1\le n\le N.Vnπ​=Tf0​​⋯Tfn−1​​U,1≤n≤N.

The second target is the paper's value iteration for the infimum over all history policies, together with membership of every VnV_nVn​ in its regularity class C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^):

V0(x,y,z)=U(y),Vn=TVn−1,Vn∈C(E^).V_0(x,y,z)=U(y),\qquad V_n=TV_{n-1},\qquad V_n\in C(\hat E).V0​(x,y,z)=U(y),Vn​=TVn−1​,Vn​∈C(E^).

The goal is Theorem 3.6(c): minimizers fk∗f_k^*fk∗​ of Vk−1V_{k-1}Vk−1​ exist, and their stage-dependent history rules attain the original objective JN(x)=VN(x,0,1)J_N(x)=V_N(x,0,1)JN​(x)=VN​(x,0,1) for every xxx. At stage n<Nn<Nn<N, the rule uses fN−n∗f_{N-n}^*fN−n∗​ at the current state, the observed sum ∑j<nβjc(Xj,Aj)\sum_{j<n}\beta^jc(X_j,A_j)∑j<n​βjc(Xj​,Aj​), and βn\beta^nβn. “Optimal” compares against all admissible history policies, including those that use more of the history than these three quantities.

Significance

Theorem 3.6 gives a finite sequence of minimum-operator evaluations for a problem whose utility of total cost is not additively separable in the physical state alone. Its policy statement also identifies which observable quantities an optimal controller needs to retain. Together, these results relate the original history-dependent problem to an extended-state Markov decision problem §3.3, pp. 10–12.

The paper proves these statements. This mission asks for machine-checked definitions and proofs of the finite-horizon discounted theorem, including the comparison with all admissible history policies. The model layer and the finite-dimensional expectation construction can support later formalizations of other risk-sensitive objectives. The mission itself has no completed proof at the drafting stage.

Difficulty

The extra discount coordinate is essential: after one action, the next cost enters utility with weight zβz\betazβ, not zzz. Keeping only accumulated cost would describe a different process. The other demanding point is the policy comparison. An iteration over extended-state decision rules has to establish the value of an infimum over arbitrary measurable history policies. Regularity and measurable selection must also be maintained at each step under (CC). The proof of Theorem 3.6 invokes the corresponding total-cost argument from Theorem 3.1, pp. 5–6; the formal development must supply the precise discounted version.

Formalization scope

Lean represents EEE and AAA as Borel subsets of Polish spaces, with standard Borel measurable structures. The controlled process is a separate reusable definition containing DDD, QQQ, and history policies; the risk-sensitive model adds ccc, β\betaβ, and UUU. The admissible graph is Borel and every section D(x)D(x)D(x) is nonempty. A history is a chronological finite list of earlier state-action pairs and a current state. Each rule is defined on all lists, but only admissible lists of the matching length are visited. The transition kernel is total as a Lean object, and its values outside DDD are irrelevant.

Policy values use nested kernel integrals representing the finite-dimensional marginals of the path law. They are defined from the cost and utility, so the Bellman recursion remains a theorem. The optimized value is an infimum over the subtype of measurable, admissible infinite history policies. The real infimum is meaningful here because this policy class is nonempty under (CC) and finite-horizon costs keep utility bounded on the relevant interval. The extended state uses real coordinates restricted to y≥0y\ge0y≥0 and 0<z≤10<z\le10<z≤1; its transition stays in that domain. “Increasing” in C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) means componentwise nondecreasing in (y,z)(y,z)(y,z). A minimizer is an admissible measurable rule satisfying Tfv=TvT_fv=TvTf​v=Tv on the entire extended domain.

The source's proof sentence that TTT preserves C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) is recorded with explicit integrability of each one-step continuation. For an arbitrary real-valued member of C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) on an unbounded state space, the source's conditions alone do not ensure a finite real expectation. This domain condition prevents Lean's zero value for a nonintegrable real integral from turning the assertion into a different one. It does not narrow the finite-horizon values appearing in the goal. Contributions toward finite-dimensional expectation identities, kernel integrability, the regularity of VnV_nVn​, and measurable minimizer selection are within scope.

Selected references

  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, authors' manuscript, KIT repository 1000039663; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1):105–120, 2014. Manuscript; DOI.
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information 2: The Minimal Expected Cost Lies Between the Complete-Information and Open-Loop ValuesResearch Paper

Why observations matter in finite-horizon control

When a controller acts on a system whose state is hidden, measurements may help it choose later actions, but the value of those measurements depends on the transition law, the observation mechanism, and the available controls. Åström's 1965 paper gave a finite-state formulation of this problem and compared the best expected loss under incomplete measurements with two limiting cases: exact state observations and no useful observations. The comparison, stated in (5.12), quantifies the value of the information available to the controller without requiring a particular numerical example. Åström, 1965.

The bounds are useful when an exact partially observed policy is difficult to calculate. The complete-information problem provides an optimistic benchmark, because a controller that sees the hidden state can condition its decision on more information. The open-loop problem provides a conservative benchmark, because it commits to a control schedule without responding to later measurements. Both auxiliary problems have simpler backward equations than the partially observed problem, as Åström notes in §V of the paper. Åström, 1965, pp. 190–193.

Model and notation

The hidden state xtx_txt​ belongs to a finite nonempty set SSS, and the measured output yty_tyt​ belongs to a finite nonempty set YYY. There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 decision stages. At stage ttt, a control u(t)u(t)u(t) is chosen from a nonempty compact set U⊆RdU\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd. Given state iii and control u(t)u(t)u(t), the next state is jjj with probability pij(u(t),t+1)p_{ij}(u(t),t+1)pij​(u(t),t+1). At state iii, the observed output is jjj with probability qijq_{ij}qij​; observations are conditionally independent given the state path. The stage loss is g(u,i,t)g(u,i,t)g(u,i,t), with no fixed sign, terminal loss, or discount. The transition probabilities and loss are continuous in the control. Åström, 1965, §II.

An admissible control law may use the whole output history y1,…,yty_1,\ldots,y_ty1​,…,yt​ when choosing u(t)u(t)u(t). Write J(c)J(c)J(c) for its expected total loss, computed from the joint law of the state and output paths, and write OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT for the infimum of J(c)J(c)J(c) over every such admissible law. The distribution of x1x_1x1​ is p1p_1p1​. After the first output η1\eta_1η1​, the belief w(1)w(1)w(1) is the conditional distribution of x1x_1x1​. More generally, w(t)w(t)w(t) is the conditional distribution of xtx_txt​ given outputs through time ttt, when that history has positive probability.

Three backward values describe the information regimes. The partial-observation value Vk(w)V_k(w)Vk​(w) obeys the Bayesian recursion (3.28). The complete-information value Vk′(w)V'_k(w)Vk′​(w) is the linear extension ∑iSk(i)wi\sum_i S_k(i)w_i∑i​Sk​(i)wi​ of the statewise recursion (5.4). The open-loop value Vk′′(w)V''_k(w)Vk′′​(w) obeys (5.7), in which the belief moves by prediction through P(u)P(u)P(u) without using an output. Each recursion has terminal value zero at N+1N+1N+1. Åström, 1965, pp. 184, 190–191.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2 identifies the partial-observation value with the original control problem: a selector attaining the minimum in (3.28) exists, and every such selector yields an admissible feedback law attaining OPT=Eη1V1(w(1))\mathrm{OPT}=\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1))OPT=Eη1​​V1​(w(1)). Theorem 4 gives the complete-information lower bound Vk′(w)≤Vk(w)V'_k(w)\le V_k(w)Vk′​(w)≤Vk​(w), and Theorem 5 gives the open-loop upper bound Vk(w)≤Vk′′(w)V_k(w)\le V''_k(w)Vk​(w)≤Vk′′​(w) for every probability belief and every stage 1≤k≤N1\le k\le N1≤k≤N. Both inequalities apply to a general observation matrix. Åström, 1965, Theorems 2, 4 and 5.

The goal is the paper's expected-cost comparison (5.12), with its middle term explicitly identified as the minimum of the original problem:

OPT=Eη1V1(w(1)),Eη1V1′(w(1))≤OPT≤Eη1V1′′(w(1)).\mathrm{OPT}=\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1)),\qquad \mathbb E_{\eta_1}V'_1(w(1))\le\mathrm{OPT}\le \mathbb E_{\eta_1}V''_1(w(1)).OPT=Eη1​​V1​(w(1)),Eη1​​V1′​(w(1))≤OPT≤Eη1​​V1′′​(w(1)).

Here the expectation is over the first measured output under p1p_1p1​ and QQQ. An output with probability zero contributes zero. The left and right members represent, respectively, the costs with perfect state information and with no useful measurements. Åström, 1965, (5.12), p. 193.

What the result provides

For any model satisfying the stated finite-state assumptions, the two easier dynamic programs bracket the best achievable expected loss with partial information. The differences between these values are the paper's measures of the value of perfect state information and the value of incomplete state information, described immediately after (5.12). Because the loss may have either sign, these are order comparisons of minimal costs rather than bounds that depend on a nonnegativity convention. Åström, 1965, (5.13)–(5.14).

The mathematical result was established in the paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its finite-path model, the three value recursions, the identification of P.1's minimum, and the information bounds. The value functions are linked by shared definitions, so later finite-state partially observed control developments can reuse the pathwise cost and Bayes update instead of rebuilding them for each theorem.

Where the proof is difficult

The tempting comparison between the three Bellman equations cannot simply replace the posterior belief by its average: the controller may choose different actions after different observations, and the continuation value is generally nonlinear in the belief. The exact-information case must also be read at beliefs concentrated at a single state. Its value formula is linear in an arbitrary input belief by definition, but the partial-observation value need not equal that linear function away from those state vertices. A second issue is connecting a feedback solution of (3.28) to the original expected loss over all output-history laws; using a belief-defined objective at the outset would assume the identification that Theorem 2 establishes.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses finite state, output, and horizon types, a nonempty compact control set in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, stochastic transition and observation rows, and continuous dependence on controls where the paper requires it. All probabilities and expectations are finite sums and products. A Fin N index of zero represents paper time one. The model starts from the law of x1x_1x1​, since §II introduces the law of x0x_0x0​ but specifies neither a control at time zero nor the transition to x1x_1x1​. The transition controlled at time ttt is therefore written with the paper's transition index t+1t+1t+1. These conventions make the first-output expectation and (3.22) use the same timing.

The norm of zjz^jzj is its ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm, the sum of absolute coordinates. At an impossible output, Lean's totalized posterior is zero; the associated continuation term has weight zero. Conditional-probability claims apply only to positive-probability histories. Each minimum over controls is represented by a real infimum over UUU. The compact control set is nonempty and the continuous costs are bounded on it, so this has the intended finite attained meaning on probability beliefs. The terminal values VN+1V_{N+1}VN+1​, SN+1S_{N+1}SN+1​ and VN+1′′V''_{N+1}VN+1′′​ are zero.

The original objective is a separate pathwise expected cost, minimized over all admissible output-history laws. The target includes its equality with Eη1V1(w(1))\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1))Eη1​​V1​(w(1)); stating only an inequality between three unrelated Bellman solutions would omit the subject of (5.12). Reusable contributions include finite-path probability identities, the Bayes recursion, attainment for continuous control minima, and the three value comparisons. No special observation matrix is assumed in Theorems 4, 5, or the goal.

Selected references

  • K. J. Åström, Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 10(1):174–205, 1965. DOI: 10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X.
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Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems I: The Law of the Graphon Particle System Depends Continuously on the Graphon in the Cut MetricResearch Paper

Motivation

Large interacting diffusion systems often have different interaction strengths between different pairs of agents. A graphon gives a continuum description of such weighted networks: each agent carries a label in [0,1][0,1][0,1], and a kernel assigns the strength of interaction between two labels. The question in this mission is whether the law of the resulting continuum stochastic system changes continuously when its graphon changes. This matters when a large finite network is represented by an approximate graphon, since an approximation of the network should lead to an approximation of the dynamics. Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu establish this stability as Theorem 2.1(c) of Graphon mean field systems.

The paper also studies dense and less dense finite-particle systems. Their convergence results use a limiting graphon particle system even when the limiting kernel is only measurable, with no continuity in the labels. Theorem 2.1(c) is the continuity result that makes approximation by simpler graphons useful in those later sections Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§3–4.

Setting

Let I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1], fix a time horizon T>0T>0T>0, and let Cd=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T];Rd) be the space of continuous paths with the uniform norm ∥x∥∗,t=sup⁡0≤s≤t∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,t}=\sup_{0\le s\le t}|x_s|∥x∥∗,t​=sup0≤s≤t​∣xs​∣. A graphon G:I2→[0,1]G:I^2\to[0,1]G:I2→[0,1] is measurable and symmetric. Its cut norm is the largest absolute integral of GGG over a measurable rectangle S×U⊆I2S\times U\subseteq I^2S×U⊆I2. For two graphons, their cut distance is the cut norm of their difference.

For each label u∈Iu\in Iu∈I, an initial state Xu(0)X_u(0)Xu​(0) and a ddd-dimensional Brownian motion BuB_uBu​ live on one probability space. Initial states are mutually independent, Brownian motions are mutually independent, and the two families are independent of each other. The initial state has law μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0). The process XuX_uXu​ evolves with a drift obtained by averaging b(Xu(s),x)G(u,v)b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v) first against the time-sss law of XvX_vXv​ and then over v∈Iv\in Iv∈I. Its diffusion coefficient averages the matrix-valued σ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v)\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v) in the same way and drives BuB_uBu​. This is the graphon particle system (2.1) Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, p. 3591.

Condition 2.1 requires measurable initial laws, a uniform (2+ε)(2+\varepsilon)(2+ε) moment for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, and a common global Lipschitz bound for bbb and σ\sigmaσ. The path-law family μ=(L(Xu))u∈I\mu=(\mathcal L(X_u))_{u\in I}μ=(L(Xu​))u∈I​ belongs to M\mathcal MM when it is measurable as a family of probability measures on Cd\mathcal C_dCd​ and has uniformly bounded second moments. The distance W2,tW_{2,t}W2,t​ between path laws uses the supremum norm through time ttt; W2,tMW^\mathcal M_{2,t}W2,tM​ is the supremum of these distances over labels Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, pp. 3591–3592.

Formalization targets

Stability of path laws

For graphons GnG_nGn​ converging to GGG in cut metric, let μuGn\mu^{G_n}_uμuGn​​ and μuG\mu^G_uμuG​ be the laws of the associated solutions, with the same initial laws and coefficients. The target is

∥Gn−G∥□⟶0⟹∫I[W2,T(μuGn,μuG)]2 du⟶0.\|G_n-G\|_\square\longrightarrow0 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \int_I[W_{2,T}(\mu^{G_n}_u,\mu^G_u)]^2\,du\longrightarrow0.∥Gn​−G∥□​⟶0⟹∫I​[W2,T​(μuGn​​,μuG​)]2du⟶0.

The conclusion is an integrated law convergence statement. It does not assert that the laws converge uniformly in uuu or that paths converge almost surely. This is precisely Theorem 2.1(c) Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, p. 3593.

Supporting results

The mission also states the paper's cut-to-operator convergence (Remark 2.1), existence of frozen-flow solutions (5.2), the squared estimate established in the proof of (5.3), well-posedness and moments for the nonlinear system (Proposition 2.1), and the quantitative stability display on p. 3604. These are the source's claims used to reach the target, with their provenance attached to each milestone Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§2 and 5.

Significance

Stability shows that the continuum model is robust to graphon approximation in a metric natural for dense networks. Together with Proposition 2.1, it gives a well-defined solution-law family whose dependence on the network kernel can be controlled. The paper uses this framework in its later laws of large numbers for finite interacting systems Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§3–4.

The theorem is proved in the paper; this mission asks for a machine-checked proof of the faithful statements. A complete development would also supply reusable Lean interfaces for graphons, cut and operator norms, measurable families of path laws, and stochastic systems whose coefficients depend on those families. The Itô-process and general Wasserstein definitions already available as published modules are reused. The remaining graphon-specific definitions and the estimates in §5 are open proof targets.

Difficulty

A direct stability argument for stochastic differential equations would compare the two coefficients point by point. Cut convergence does not provide pointwise convergence of Gn(u,v)G_n(u,v)Gn​(u,v) to G(u,v)G(u,v)G(u,v), nor a uniform bound on their difference that tends to zero. The drift and diffusion also contain laws generated by the processes being compared, so a change in the graphon feeds back into the law family. The central challenge is to control these coupled differences using only a weak kernel metric while retaining the measurable structure needed to integrate over labels Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §5.2.

The result also depends on a well-posedness theory for a continuum of stochastic equations. The laws need to vary measurably with uuu even though the paper does not assume the sample paths themselves vary measurably with uuu Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, Remark 2.3(b).

Formalization scope

Lean uses unitInterval for III, nonnegative real time, and continuous maps from [0,T][0,T][0,T] to Fin d → ℝ for Cd\mathcal C_dCd​. The norm on Rd\mathbb R^dRd is the sup norm; the paper's Euclidean norm is equivalent in finite dimension, so existential Lipschitz and stability constants may change while the qualitative claim remains the same. The diffusion coefficient is a d×dd\times dd×d matrix, measured through its entries. Wasserstein quantities and nonnegative expectations are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], avoiding defaults for infinite moments. The path-law family uses the measurable space of measures, with the Borel space on paths. A zero-time or zero-dimensional state space is admitted where the formulas still have their stated meaning; T>0T>0T>0 and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 are explicit.

For each graphon, a solution is a continuous-path process driven by the same given initial variables and Brownian motions, adapted to the natural filtration of those variables for each label. Its path map is almost everywhere measurable, its law family belongs to M\mathcal MM, and the nested interaction integrals are required to be integrable. These clauses prevent a zero measure from arising through a nonmeasurable pushforward and prevent a nonintegrable Bochner integral from silently evaluating to zero. The graphons are explicitly measurable, symmetric, and [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued, so the real cut and operator norms are used only on bounded kernels. The theorem also asserts measurability of each Wasserstein integrand, reflecting the paper's treatment of the displayed integral.

The paper's proofs are in §§5–7; this mission concerns §5. Contributions to any stated milestone and to the reusable measure and Itô lemmas needed for them are welcome. A formalization that assumes the stability limit, that treats arbitrary unbounded kernels as graphons, or that uses an empty solution class would not establish this target.

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty and R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Annals of Applied Probability 33(5), 3587–3619, 2023. DOI 10.1214/22-AAP1901.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks I: Every Supply Chain Network Has a Unique General Equilibrium of Rerouting Prices, Switching Costs and Default CascadesResearch Paper

Motivation

A failed buyer can leave a supplier with goods it can no longer sell through an existing order. A failed supplier can leave a buyer without inputs for future production. In a network, either loss can weaken another firm and start a sequence of defaults. Birge, Capponi and Chen model these effects together with two responses: suppliers reroute unsold goods to other buyers, and buyers seek replacement suppliers. Their accepted manuscript asks whether the resulting market decisions and the default cascade determine a single outcome. The issue matters when a network's resilience or fragility is measured from that outcome: a measure based on an unspecified equilibrium would not be well defined.

Setting

A supply chain order network has finitely many firms i,ji,ji,j and goods mmm. An order oijmo^m_{ij}oijm​ is the nonnegative quantity of good mmm that firm iii promises to deliver to firm jjj. The network also records each good's original price pmp^mpm, each firm's initial equity wiw_iwi​, its safety stock θim\theta_i^mθim​ and holding cost λim\lambda_i^mλim​, and a realized net production cost cic_ici​. The realization is fixed throughout this mission; the source treats it as random when comparing network performance later in the paper. Rerouting one unit costs firm iii an amount ιim\iota_i^mιim​; an unfilled unit of demand incurs back-order cost bimb_i^mbim​. These costs and the orders and stocks are nonnegative. The basic model is on pp. 8–17 of the manuscript.

If firm jjj defaults, a promised delivery to it is not made. Write γijm\gamma^m_{ij}γijm​ for this undelivered order, and rˉim=∑jγijm\bar r_i^m=\sum_j\gamma^m_{ij}rˉim​=∑j​γijm​ for firm iii's total amount of good mmm available to reroute. If a supplier jjj defaults, write δjim\delta^m_{ji}δjim​ for the buyer iii's lost input. After using safety stock, that buyer's unserved demand is σˉim=(∑jδjim−θim)+\bar\sigma_i^m=(\sum_j\delta^m_{ji}-\theta_i^m)^+σˉim​=(∑j​δjim​−θim​)+, where x+=max⁡(0,x)x^+=\max(0,x)x+=max(0,x). These are the quantities in equations (1)–(5).

The rerouted market for good mmm contains firms with rˉim>0\bar r_i^m>0rˉim​>0. At price πim\pi_i^mπim​, firm iii can sell up to rˉim\bar r_i^mrˉim​. Aggregate demand at price π\piπ is dm(π)d_m(\pi)dm​(π), with inverse demand dm−1d_m^{-1}dm−1​. The sourcing market contains firms with σˉim>0\bar\sigma_i^m>0σˉim​>0. At switching cost κim\kappa_i^mκim​, firm iii can replace up to σˉim\bar\sigma_i^mσˉim​ units. Aggregate supply is sm(κ)s_m(\kappa)sm​(κ), with inverse supply sm−1s_m^{-1}sm−1​. In either market, an efficient allocation maximizes the stated integral objective over the capacity box, and allocates proportionally to capacity among firms quoting the same price or cost. A partial equilibrium additionally makes every active firm's quoted price or cost a best response to all nonnegative unilateral deviations. These are Definitions 2.1–2.2 and 3.1–3.2.

A firm's ex-post net worth ei∗e_i^*ei∗​ combines original-order revenue, production and stock costs, rerouting revenue and cost, and back-order and replacement-supplier costs exactly as in equation (10). A firm defaults when its net worth is strictly negative. Starting with no undelivered orders or unserved demand, the update maps Φ∗\Phi^*Φ∗ and Ψ∗\Psi^*Ψ∗ mark all orders affected by firms that default after each market has reached its partial equilibrium. A market stable state is both the limit of that sequence and a fixed point of the update. A general equilibrium combines such a state with a partial equilibrium in every market (Definitions 3.3–3.4 and equation (18)).

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 4.3, stated on p. 24:

∃! (Π,K,Γ,Δ)  GeneralEquilibrium⁡(Π,K,Γ,Δ).\exists!\,(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta)\;\operatorname{GeneralEquilibrium}(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta).∃!(Π,K,Γ,Δ)GeneralEquilibrium(Π,K,Γ,Δ).

The quadruple consists of rerouting prices Π\PiΠ, switching costs KKK, undelivered orders Γ\GammaΓ, and unserved demand Δ\DeltaΔ. The claim includes existence and uniqueness of the full outcome, not merely of its default set. The milestone list follows the paper's dependency path: Propositions A.3 and A.6 identify the unique efficient allocations in the two markets; Propositions 4.1 and 4.2 identify their partial equilibria; Lemma A.7 states that greater disruption cannot increase any firm's partial-equilibrium net worth; and Lemma A.8 states that the default updates are bounded and increasing. The numbered results and their equations are in the E-Companion, EC pp. 4–12, and the main text, p. 22.

Significance

Proposition 4.3 makes the network's outcome a function of its order commitments, stocks, prices, market functions, and realized production costs. Later comparisons of network structures can therefore refer to the equilibrium without choosing among several price or default profiles. The result also separates local market choice from the way losses spread through the network: a firm can reroute or switch optimally and still fail once the effects of other failures are accounted for.

The paper proves the result in its E-Companion, EC pp. 12–13. This mission concerns a Lean statement of that known result and the reusable definitions needed to check a proof. The draft propositions are open proof obligations; this proposal does not claim machine-checked proofs of them. The two market allocation predicates, the default update, and the cascade limit can also support later formal work on the paper's resilience results.

Difficulty

The market and network conditions interact. An arbitrary fixed point of the default update need not be the state reached from zero; using only the fixed-point equation loses the uniqueness asserted by the paper. Conversely, knowing a cascade limit does not by itself show that the limit is fixed, because the update changes discontinuously when a firm's net worth crosses zero. At the market level, the price and switching-cost equilibria must be established from optimization and best-response conditions. Writing the formulas for the claimed equilibrium prices into those definitions would leave the central market claims unproved.

Formalization scope

Firms are Fin N and goods are Fin M, with N,M>0N,M>0N,M>0; the source numbers both from one, while Lean numbers them from zero. Orders and all default matrices are real valued and coordinatewise ordered. Active markets may be empty, as at the start of the cascade. Market objectives are ordinary real interval integrals over finite capacity boxes. The standing conditions include the paper's smoothness, concavity, and monotonicity assumptions on demand wherever it is positive and on the supply function, plus inverse identities and continuity on the quantity ranges used by the model. The inverse functions remain general data tied to dmd_mdm​ and sms_msm​; no linear demand or supply curve is imposed.

Several domain conventions make the displayed formulas meaningful. Assumption 2.1's minimum order is read over positive-order suppliers of a good; over all firms it would force zero safety stock whenever a nonsupplier exists. The inverse supply is nonnegative on feasible quantities, with sm(0)≤0s_m(0)\le0sm​(0)≤0, so the claimed switching cost belongs to the nonnegative strategy space. Demand inverse at zero is fixed to the reservation price. Assumptions 4.1–4.2 apply at each positive active-market total; for the general-equilibrium goal they are required for every binary 0/oijm0/o^m_{ij}0/oijm​ profile the cascade can visit. Differentiability at those totals is explicit. Initial equity and the order, stock, holding, rerouting, and back-order data are nonnegative; the realized net production cost can have either sign. The model uses the p. 23 convention for prices and costs outside active markets.

An efficient allocation remains an optimizer of equations (7) or (9), with proportional tie handling; a partial equilibrium remains a best response to every admissible deviation. The general equilibrium includes both the limit from zero and the fixed-point condition. These clauses exclude an equilibrium that is true by definition or a fixed point unrelated to the default cascade. The source's informal statement that every firm “supplies, consumes, or purchases” a good has no separate activity flag in this model; a firm with no internal order can still have outside production or consumption represented in cic_ici​. Milestone statements involving arbitrary disruption profiles restrict them to the feasible order box [0,O][0,O][0,O], where the market inverses are defined.

Selected references

  • John R. Birge, Agostino Capponi, and Peng-Chu Chen, Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks, accepted manuscript dated October 31, 2022, SSRN 3669363; published in Operations Research, 2023, DOI 10.1287/opre.2022.2409.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains II: A Stable Joint-Auditing Coalition Audits the Common Supplier and Shares Costs FairlyResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands that sell consumer goods are held responsible by the public for the labour and safety practices of their suppliers. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh, about 200 clothing brands and retailers signed the Accord on Fire and Building Safety and inspect roughly 1,600 factories jointly; pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GSK audit their suppliers jointly through the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Initiative (both examples from the paper, pp. 4 and 14). Two features of such supply bases matter for auditing. Competing brands often share a common supplier, so a scandal at that supplier hurts both of them. And brands compete downstream, so a scandal that hurts only a rival can help a brand.

Chen, Qi and Dawande (MSOM 2020; accepted manuscript SSRN 2889889) model two competing buyers with one common and two independent suppliers. Their Proposition 2 shows that, when each buyer audits on his own, competition drives the buyers away from the common supplier: in every equilibrium it is left unaudited. This mission formalizes their Proposition 3. It shows that a coalition that audits jointly, and splits the cost by a Shapley-value rule, does audit the common supplier and is stable. A companion mission (Supplier Centrality … I) covers Proposition 2.

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: BiB_iBi​ from its independent supplier SiS_iSi​, and both from the common supplier ScS_cSc​. Each supplier is compliant with probability e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1). A non-compliant supplier that passes an audit of effort x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] (probability 1−x1-x1−x) is exposed in public with probability r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1]. An independent supplier audited with effort xxx therefore causes damage with probability λI(x)=r(1−e)(1−x)\lambda_I(x)=r(1-e)(1-x)λI​(x)=r(1−e)(1−x). The three suppliers offend independently.

If buyer BiB_iBi​ has ni∈{0,1,2}n_i\in\{0,1,2\}ni​∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers, its demand intercept falls from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha-d_Mα−dM​ (by dM>0d_M>0dM​>0 once, however many offend). Each exposed supplier also raises its unit input cost from www to w^≥w\hat w\ge ww^≥w. The buyers then play a Cournot game with differentiated products (substitution β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1]). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s equilibrium profit is π1b(n1,n2)=(q1∗)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2)=(q^*_1)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=(q1∗​)2, where

q1∗=2(A1−c1)−β(A2−c2)4−β2,Ai=α−dM1{ni≥1},ci=(2−ni)w+niw^.q^*_1=\frac{2(A_1-c_1)-\beta(A_2-c_2)}{4-\beta^2},\qquad A_i=\alpha-d_M\mathbf 1\{n_i\ge1\},\quad c_i=(2-n_i)w+n_i\hat w.q1∗​=4−β22(A1​−c1​)−β(A2​−c2​)​,Ai​=α−dM​1{ni​≥1},ci​=(2−ni​)w+ni​w^.

The aggregate ex post profit is πb(i dM,j dM)=π1b(i,j)+π2b(i,j)\pi^b(i\,d_M,j\,d_M)=\pi^b_1(i,j)+\pi^b_2(i,j)πb(idM​,jdM​)=π1b​(i,j)+π2b​(i,j). Auditing a supplier with effort xxx costs K1{x>0}+a2x2K\mathbf 1\{x>0\}+\tfrac a2x^2K1{x>0}+2a​x2.

Unilateral auditing. Each buyer audits at most one of his two suppliers. Πib\Pi^b_iΠib​ is buyer BiB_iBi​'s expected profit net of his own audit costs. An equilibrium is a pair of mutual best responses in which, by the paper's tie-breaking rule, a buyer who audits strictly prefers it to not auditing. The effort e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ of eq. (2) is a buyer's optimal effort on his own supplier when the rival does not audit.

Joint auditing. The coalition chooses efforts x=(ec1,ecc,ec2)∈[0,1]3x=(e_{c1},e_{cc},e_{c2})\in[0,1]^3x=(ec1​,ecc​,ec2​)∈[0,1]3 on S1,Sc,S2S_1,S_c,S_2S1​,Sc​,S2​, auditing at most two suppliers, and pays each audited supplier's cost once. The buyers still compete downstream. With Rib(x)R^b_i(x)Rib​(x) the buyers' expected profits excluding audit costs, the coalition's profit is

Πb(x)=R1b(x)+R2b(x)−∑j∈{1,c,2}[K1{ecj>0}+a2ecj2].\Pi^b(x)=R^b_1(x)+R^b_2(x)-\sum_{j\in\{1,c,2\}}\Big[K\mathbf 1\{e_{cj}>0\}+\tfrac a2e_{cj}^2\Big].Πb(x)=R1b​(x)+R2b​(x)−j∈{1,c,2}∑​[K1{ecj​>0}+2a​ecj2​].

The difference of the buyers' profits is ΔΠ=R1b−R2b\Delta\Pi=R^b_1-R^b_2ΔΠ=R1b​−R2b​. The cost shares are Γ1,2=12[total cost±ΔΠ]\Gamma_{1,2}=\tfrac12[\text{total cost}\pm\Delta\Pi]Γ1,2​=21​[total cost±ΔΠ] (eq. (3)). The analysis assumes the scenario

πb(0,0)≥πb(dM,0)≥πb(dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,2dM).\pi^b(0,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,2d_M).πb(0,0)≥πb(dM​,0)≥πb(dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,2dM​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There are thresholds KcL≤KcHK^L_c\le K^H_cKcL​≤KcH​ such that, for every K≥0K\ge0K≥0, an optimal joint plan

{audits S1 and Sc, ΔΠ>0,K<KcL,audits only Sc, ΔΠ=0,KcL≤K<KcH,audits nothing,K≥KcH.\begin{cases}\text{audits } S_1 \text{ and } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi>0, & K<K^L_c,\\ \text{audits only } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi=0, & K^L_c\le K<K^H_c,\\ \text{audits nothing}, & K\ge K^H_c.\end{cases}⎩⎨⎧​audits S1​ and Sc​, ΔΠ>0,audits only Sc​, ΔΠ=0,audits nothing,​K<KcL​,KcL​≤K<KcH​,K≥KcH​.​

The coalition is also stable. At an optimal plan its aggregate profit is at least the buyers' aggregate profit in any unilateral equilibrium. After paying Γi\Gamma_iΓi​, each buyer earns at least his profit in a symmetric unilateral equilibrium.

Milestones

The coalition's profit as a sum of unilateral profits (proof of Lemma OA9). Lemma OA9: ScS_cSc​ beats one independent supplier, and beats no audit for K<K^K<\hat KK<K^. Lemma OA10: ScS_cSc​ with S1S_1S1​ beats S1S_1S1​ with S2S_2S2​. Lemma OA11: S1S_1S1​ with ScS_cSc​ beats ScS_cSc​ alone for K<K~K<\tilde KK<K~. The fair shares (3). The case analysis with KcL=min⁡{K^+K~2,K~}K^L_c=\min\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\tilde K\}KcL​=min{2K^+K~​,K~} and KcH=max⁡{K^+K~2,K^}K^H_c=\max\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\hat K\}KcH​=max{2K^+K~​,K^}. Stability.

Significance

The result separates two effects of downstream competition on responsible sourcing. Under unilateral auditing, a buyer gains nothing private from auditing the shared supplier: the reduction in risk accrues equally to his rival. The joint coalition removes this free-riding. The common supplier is audited whenever anything is, and the Shapley-type split (3) charges the buyer who also has his own supplier audited for the competitive advantage this gives him (Γ1>Γ2\Gamma_1>\Gamma_2Γ1​>Γ2​ exactly when ΔΠ>0\Delta\Pi>0ΔΠ>0). The paper's welfare comparison (Proposition 4) builds on this proposition and on Proposition 2.

The proof in the e-companion argues through four comparisons of candidate plans and short cost-sharing algebra. None of it is machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the model (in particular which costs the coalition pays and what "at most two suppliers" excludes) and checks each comparison. In one place it also corrects the printed claim: the per-firm stability argument is given only for the symmetric unilateral equilibrium, and it does not extend to the asymmetric one (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

All objects are explicit polynomials in the efforts. The difficulty is in the comparisons. Lemmas OA9 and OA10 compare different audit plans through the scenario ordering of aggregate ex post profits, an assumption on the stage-2 closed form that is not implied by the standing conditions. The obvious attempt, comparing first-order conditions, fails because the coalition's profit is discontinuous at zero effort (the fixed cost) and the feasible set is not convex: "at most two of three" is a union of faces of the cube. The thresholds K^\hat KK^, K~\tilde KK~ are differences of maxima, so the case analysis has to handle ties and the boundary K=KcHK=K^H_cK=KcH​ with weak inequalities. Stability needs the unilateral equilibria of Proposition 2, so the full goal reaches into the companion mission's game.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Params holds α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M,e,r,aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a with β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w\le\hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M>0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a>0a>0 and the three positivity conditions of p. 8. Every statement adds β>0\beta>0β>0 (Sec. 4.3 continues the competing case) and the p. 13 scenario as five inequalities between piAgg values. Their arguments count exposed suppliers: πb(2dM,dM)\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)πb(2dM​,dM​) is a label, not a damage of 2dM2d_M2dM​.
  • Expected profits are 8-outcome expectations of the closed-form stage-2 profit. The coalition's profit charges each audited supplier once, and the common supplier's damage probability under a joint audit is r(1−e)(1−ecc)r(1-e)(1-e_{cc})r(1−e)(1−ecc​).
  • Thresholds K^,K~\hat K,\tilde KK^,K~ are the maxima at K=0K=0K=0 written as sSup over [0,1][0,1][0,1] and [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2. At K=0K=0K=0 the profit is a polynomial, so these suprema are attained.
  • "Yields the highest aggregate profit" is read as "some maximizer over the feasible plans has this pattern"; uniqueness is not claimed. ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ is evaluated at that maximizer (its mirror image, which audits S2S_2S2​, has ΔΠ<0\Delta\Pi<0ΔΠ<0).
  • Cost shares use the total cost of the plan. For plans with ec2=0e_{c2}=0ec2​=0 they are the printed formulas (3).
  • Unilateral benchmark. The equilibrium includes the tie-breaking rule of p. 10, and the interior-effort assumption of p. 10 is encoded as e^I<1\hat e_I<1e^I​<1, with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ given by eq. (2).
  • Stability, corrected. Condition (b) of Sec. 4.3 (each firm earns more) is stated against symmetric unilateral equilibria only, the case the paper's proof treats. Against the asymmetric equilibrium, where one buyer audits with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and the other audits nothing, it fails. Take α=10\alpha=10α=10, β=1\beta=1β=1, w=1w=1w=1, w^=3\hat w=3w^=3, dM=12d_M=\tfrac12dM​=21​, e=110e=\tfrac1{10}e=101​, r=1r=1r=1, a=50a=50a=50, K=0.2K=0.2K=0.2: the coalition optimally audits nothing, yet the auditing buyer earns more unilaterally than half of the coalition's profit. Condition (a) is stated against every equilibrium. "Higher" is stated as ≥\ge≥.
  • The goal's thresholds are existential and come before ∀K\forall K∀K. Choosing KcL=KcHK^L_c=K^H_cKcL​=KcH​ does not trivialize it, because the three cases must cover every K≥0K\ge0K≥0. The milestone on part (2) fixes the thresholds explicitly.
  • The source is the authors' SSRN accepted manuscript. Main-text page numbers equal PDF pages, and e-companion page eckkk is PDF page 28+k28+k28+k.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemmas OA9–OA11, which are self-contained polynomial inequalities; existence of maximizers on the non-convex feasible set (upper semicontinuity); and the link to the unilateral equilibria needed for stability.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020; accepted manuscript, SSRN 2889889. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier evasion of a buyer's audit: Implications for motivating supplier social and environmental responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2):184–197, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4):546–554, 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 2: In Finite Horizon, Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Time Derivative of the Value Function ContinuousResearch Paper

Motivation

In an optimal stopping problem the value function VVV and the gain function GGG agree on the stopping set D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G}, and V>GV>GV>G on the continuation set CCC. The smooth fit principle says that, at the boundary ∂C\partial C∂C between them, VVV meets GGG with matching first derivatives. Smooth fit is one of the boundary conditions in the free-boundary problems that characterise optimal stopping boundaries. It is behind the integral equations for the early-exercise boundary of the American put and for many problems in sequential analysis and finance (Peskir & Shiryaev, 2006). On a finite horizon the value depends on the remaining time, and continuity of the time derivative ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the step that justifies the local time-space calculus applied to VVV (Peskir, 2005).

Before De Angelis & Peskir (2020) such continuity results were proved problem by problem, or under sign conditions that the main examples do not satisfy: G=0G=0G=0 on the stopping set and H<0H<0H<0 globally, which fails for the American put. Their paper gives two general results. Theorem 8 covers the space derivative, and Theorem 15, the subject of this mission, covers the time derivative on a finite horizon. Both are stated for a strong Markov process realised as a stochastic flow, and both rest on probabilistic regularity of the boundary.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and d=m+1≥1d=m+1\ge1d=m+1≥1. The process is the time-space process Xst,x=(t+s,Xsx)X^{t,x}_s=(t+s,X^x_s)Xst,x​=(t+s,Xsx​). Its first coordinate is time, and (Xsx)s≥0, x∈Rd−1(X^x_s)_{s\ge0,\,x\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}(Xsx​)s≥0,x∈Rd−1​ is a stochastic flow on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with a right-continuous filtration (Fs)(\mathcal F_s)(Fs​), adapted to it, with X0x=xX^x_0=xX0x​=x. Its paths are right-continuous with left limits, it is left-continuous over stopping times, and it is strong Markov. The flow is continuous in the space variable if, outside one null set, x↦Xsx(ω)x\mapsto X^x_s(\omega)x↦Xsx​(ω) is continuous for every sss.

Given continuous functions λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, GGG and HHH of (t,x)(t,x)(t,x), write Λst,x=∫0sλ(t+u,Xux) du\Lambda^{t,x}_s=\int_0^s\lambda(t+u,X^x_u)\,duΛst,x​=∫0s​λ(t+u,Xux​)du. The value function is

V(t,x)=sup⁡0≤τ≤T−tE[e−Λτt,xG(t+τ,Xτx)+∫0τe−Λst,xH(t+s,Xsx) ds]V(t,x)=\sup_{0\le\tau\le T-t}\mathsf E\Big[e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_\tau}G(t+\tau,X^x_\tau)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_s}H(t+s,X^x_s)\,ds\Big]V(t,x)=0≤τ≤T−tsup​E[e−Λτt,x​G(t+τ,Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λst,x​H(t+s,Xsx​)ds]

over stopping times τ\tauτ bounded by the remaining time T−tT-tT−t. The sets are C={V>G}C=\{V>G\}C={V>G} and D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G} inside [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1, and ∂C=D∩C‾\partial C=D\cap\overline C∂C=D∩C. The problem is well posed if the expected payoffs are integrable and the first entry time τD\tau_DτD​ into DDD is optimal.

The first hitting time of a set AAA is σAt,x=inf⁡{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x∈A}\sigma^{t,x}_A=\inf\{s\in(0,T-t]:X^{t,x}_s\in A\}σAt,x​=inf{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x​∈A}. A point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if P(σAz=0)=1P(\sigma^z_A=0)=1P(σAz​=0)=1. The generator LX\mathbb L_XLX​ (2.14) acts in the space variable, with diffusion matrix σij\sigma_{ij}σij​, drift μi\mu_iμi​, killing rate λ\lambdaλ and jump measure ν\nuν. Its coefficient formula is tied to the flow by the right derivative at zero of the killed spatial semigroup applied to G(t,⋅)G(t,\cdot)G(t,⋅). The function H~=Gt+LXG+H\tilde H=G_t+\mathbb L_XG+HH~=Gt​+LX​G+H appears in the hypotheses.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15, global form (p. 20)

Assume well-posedness, (5.9) (VVV continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 and C1C^1C1 on CCC), (5.10) (G∈C1,2G\in C^{1,2}G∈C1,2) and (5.11) (Lipschitz continuity of H~\tilde HH~ and λ\lambdaλ in ttt, uniformly in xxx), and a continuous flow. Assume the local conditions (5.12)–(5.13) and probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘ at every z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C. Then

∂tV exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.\partial_tV\ \text{exists and is continuous on }[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}.∂t​V exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.

Milestones

  1. (5.17): along every sequence (tn,xn)∈C(t_n,x_n)\in C(tn​,xn​)∈C with (tn,xn)→z(t_n,x_n)\to z(tn​,xn​)→z, lim inf⁡nVt(tn,xn)≥Gt(z)\displaystyle\liminf_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\ge G_t(z)nliminf​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≥Gt​(z).
  2. (5.20): along the same sequences, lim sup⁡nVt(tn,xn)≤Gt(z)\displaystyle\limsup_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\le G_t(z)nlimsup​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≤Gt​(z).
  3. Theorem 15, (5.14): at a single regular z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C,
∂tV(z)=∂tG(z)andlim⁡C∋(t,x)→z∂tV(t,x)=∂tG(z).\partial_tV(z)=\partial_tG(z)\quad\text{and}\quad\lim_{C\ni(t,x)\to z}\partial_tV(t,x)=\partial_tG(z).∂t​V(z)=∂t​G(z)andC∋(t,x)→zlim​∂t​V(t,x)=∂t​G(z).

Significance

The result. Theorem 15 turns a probabilistic property of the boundary, which can be checked through sample-path arguments, into the analytic smooth-fit condition in time. Continuity of ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the hypothesis that the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves and surfaces requires. That formula yields the free-boundary integral equations for optimal stopping boundaries. The theorem needs no sign condition on GGG or HHH and no strong Feller property. The time-space process is never strong Feller, which is exactly why the earlier strong Feller route to boundary regularity does not apply here.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematics. As far as is known no part of it has been machine-checked. Mathlib has stopping times and conditional expectation, but no stochastic flows, no generators of jump diffusions and no optimal stopping in continuous time. A complete development formalizes the proof on pp. 20–23 together with the upper semicontinuity of hitting times of open sets (Lemma 4 and Corollary 6 of the paper, posed in the companion mission on the space derivative).

Difficulty

The infinite-horizon argument (Theorem 13, via Theorem 8) perturbs the starting point and reuses the optimal stopping time of the unperturbed problem. On a finite horizon this fails in the time variable. Shifting the start from tnt_ntn​ to tn+εnt_n+\varepsilon_ntn​+εn​ shortens the remaining horizon, so the stopping time optimal for V(tn,xn)V(t_n,x_n)V(tn​,xn​) is no longer admissible for V(tn+εn,xn)V(t_n+\varepsilon_n,x_n)V(tn​+εn​,xn​). A first-order comparison of payoffs therefore cannot be used. The proof truncates the stopping time and controls the truncated part, which is the role of the identity (5.12) and of the window [T−t−ε,T−t][T-t-\varepsilon,T-t][T−t−ε,T−t] in (5.13). The convergence τn→0\tau_n\to0τn​→0 of the optimal stopping times has to come from regularity of zzz for the interior D∘D^\circD∘ and continuity of the flow, not from the strong Feller property.

Formalization scope

  • Space Rd−1\mathbb R^{d-1}Rd−1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) with d=m+1d=m+1d=m+1. Time is ℝ≥0. Points of the time-space domain are pairs in ℝ × EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), and [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 is Set.Icc 0 T ×ˢ univ.
  • PxP_xPx​ and Ex\mathsf E_xEx​ are PPP and E\mathsf EE of the flow started at xxx. All stopping times are for one common right-continuous filtration and are finite valued. Admissible times for (t,x)(t,x)(t,x) satisfy τ≤T−t\tau\le T-tτ≤T−t.
  • Hitting and entry times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (WithTop ℝ≥0) with inf⁡∅=∞\inf\emptyset=\inftyinf∅=∞, and are capped by the horizon.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. Well-posedness carries integrability of every admissible payoff and optimality of a stopping time equal to τD\tau_DτD​ almost surely, so VVV is attained and is not a junk supremum.
  • ∂C:=D∩C‾\partial C:=D\cap\overline C∂C:=D∩C. "C∋(t,x)→zC\ni(t,x)\to zC∋(t,x)→z" is the filter NC(z)\mathcal N_C(z)NC​(z), and ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V is the derivative of s↦V(s,x)s\mapsto V(s,x)s↦V(s,x) within [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The pointwise clause "continuous at zzz" means convergence along CCC; the global clause is ContinuousOn on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1.
  • (5.13) is an integrable majorant valid simultaneously for all points of the window. The ball b(z,ε)b(z,\varepsilon)b(z,ε) is the max-metric ball, which is equivalent because ε\varepsilonε is existential. (5.12) includes integrability of both sides.
  • D∘D^\circD∘ is the interior in R×Rd−1\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^{d-1}R×Rd−1. No point with t=Tt=Tt=T is probabilistically regular, so the global hypothesis requires C‾\overline CC to avoid t=Tt=Tt=T. This is the paper's scope, not an addition.
  • The model is not specialized: any d≥1d\ge1d≥1, general λ\lambdaλ, jumps allowed, càdlàg paths, unbounded GGG, HHH and VVV. A formalization that takes Λ≡0\Lambda\equiv0Λ≡0, d=1d=1d=1, continuous paths, or the strong Feller property is a different theorem.

Contributions welcome: the hitting-time lemmas (upper semicontinuity of σD∘\sigma_{D^\circ}σD∘​ under a continuous flow), dominated-convergence lemmas for the truncated stopping times, and the two halves (5.17) and (5.20).

Selected references

  • T. De Angelis, G. Peskir, Global C¹ regularity of the value function in optimal stopping problems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020. Preprint arXiv:1812.04564v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.04564v2
  • G. Peskir, A. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0
  • G. Peskir, A change-of-variable formula with local time on curves, J. Theoret. Probab. 18, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10959-005-3517-6
  • R. M. Blumenthal, R. K. Getoor, Markov Processes and Potential Theory, Academic Press, 1968.
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 1: Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Value Function Continuously DifferentiableResearch Paper

Why boundary regularity matters

An optimal stopping rule chooses when to end a stochastic process in order to collect a terminal reward, possibly after earning or paying a running reward. The resulting value function often solves a free-boundary problem: the state space splits into a region where stopping is optimal and one where continuing is better. Smoothness inside either region does not by itself say what happens where the regions meet. This mission concerns the global first spatial derivative of that value function at the optimal stopping boundary.

De Angelis and Peskir proved that a probabilistic condition on the boundary, together with regularity of the process as a spatial flow and explicit integrability bounds, gives continuous differentiability of the value function across the boundary. Their result applies to standard Markov processes with right-continuous paths and left limits, including jump processes; it is not restricted to diffusions or to a constant discount rate. The source is De Angelis and Peskir, arXiv:1812.04564v2, Theorem 8.

The stopping problem and its boundary

Let d≥1d\ge1d≥1, let E=RdE=\mathbb R^dE=Rd, and let XtxX_t^xXtx​ be a stochastic flow: the same probability space carries a path starting from every state x∈Ex\in Ex∈E. Time is nonnegative. One right-continuous filtration makes every path adapted and is used for every stopping rule. The process is strong Markov, has right-continuous paths with left limits, is left continuous over stopping times, and starts from X0x=xX_0^x=xX0x​=x. Expectations and probabilities written ExE_xEx​ and PxP_xPx​ in the paper are the expectation and probability of the flow XxX^xXx under one measure PPP.

The continuous data are a nonnegative discount rate λ:E→[0,∞)\lambda:E\to[0,\infty)λ:E→[0,∞), a terminal reward G:E→RG:E\to\mathbb RG:E→R, and a running reward H:E→RH:E\to\mathbb RH:E→R. The discount accumulated along the path from xxx is Λtx=∫0tλ(Xsx) ds\Lambda_t^x=\int_0^t\lambda(X_s^x)\,dsΛtx​=∫0t​λ(Xsx​)ds. For every finite-valued stopping time τ\tauτ of the common filtration, define

J(x,τ)=E ⁣[e−ΛτxG(Xτx)+∫0τe−ΛtxH(Xtx) dt],V(x)=sup⁡τJ(x,τ).J(x,\tau)=E\!\left[e^{-\Lambda_\tau^x}G(X_\tau^x)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda_t^x}H(X_t^x)\,dt\right], \qquad V(x)=\sup_\tau J(x,\tau).J(x,τ)=E[e−Λτx​G(Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λtx​H(Xtx​)dt],V(x)=τsup​J(x,τ).

This is the infinite-horizon problem (2.1). It is well posed here when all admissible payoffs are integrable and the first entry time into the stopping set is an almost surely finite optimal stopping time. These conditions ensure that VVV is a real, attained supremum rather than a default value of Lean's real supremum or integral. Define the stopping set D={x:V(x)=G(x)}D=\{x:V(x)=G(x)\}D={x:V(x)=G(x)}, the continuation set C={x:V(x)>G(x)}C=\{x:V(x)>G(x)\}C={x:V(x)>G(x)}, and the boundary relevant to the theorem as D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C. For a state set AAA, the first entry time is τAx=inf⁡{t≥0:Xtx∈A}\tau_A^x=\inf\{t\ge0:X_t^x\in A\}τAx​=inf{t≥0:Xtx​∈A} and the first strictly positive hitting time is σAx=inf⁡{t>0:Xtx∈A}\sigma_A^x=\inf\{t>0:X_t^x\in A\}σAx​=inf{t>0:Xtx​∈A}. Both may be infinite.

A boundary point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if Pz(σA=0)=1P_z(\sigma_A=0)=1Pz​(σA​=0)=1. It is Green regular for AAA when Px(τA≥ε)→0P_x(\tau_A\ge\varepsilon)\to0Px​(τA​≥ε)→0 as x→zx\to zx→z through CCC, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. The paper obtains Green regularity by either strong Feller continuity with probabilistic regularity for DDD, or spatial continuity of the flow with probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘. Lemma 1 and Corollaries 2–3 give the first route; Lemma 4 and Corollaries 5–6 give the second. All six statements use an arbitrary closed DDD, as in Section 3 of the source. Source: §§2–3, pp. 3–11.

Formalization targets

The milestone results first establish the two boundary regularity routes. In particular, approaching zzz through CCC, the first route gives τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 in probability; the second gives τD∘xn→0\tau_{D^\circ}^{x_n}\to0τD∘xn​​→0 and τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 almost surely. Equations (4.16) and (4.19) then bound, respectively, the lower and upper limits of each coordinate derivative ∂iV(xn)\partial_iV(x_n)∂i​V(xn​) by ∂iG(z)\partial_iG(z)∂i​G(z). The pointwise part of Theorem 8 concludes

DV(z)=DG(z),lim⁡C∋x→zDV(x)=DG(z).D V(z)=D G(z),\qquad \lim_{C\ni x\to z}D V(x)=D G(z).DV(z)=DG(z),C∋x→zlim​DV(x)=DG(z).

The mission goal is the final sentence of Theorem 8. If the theorem's local hypotheses hold at every z∈D∩C‾z\in D\cap\overline Cz∈D∩C, then

V∈C1(Rd).V\in C^1(\mathbb R^d).V∈C1(Rd).

The hypotheses include the discounted generator representation (2.14) from the problem setup, continuity and interior C1C^1C1 regularity of VVV, global C1C^1C1 regularity of GGG, one positive Lipschitz constant for both HHH and λ\lambdaλ, a C1C^1C1 spatial flow, the four local bounds (4.4)–(4.7) with one radius at each boundary point, and one of the two probabilistic regularity alternatives. The goal retains all dimensions d≥1d\ge1d≥1, all nonnegative continuous discount rates, and the source's full class of standard Markov flows. Source: §2.5 and Theorem 8, pp. 7, 11–12.

What the result gives

The conclusion identifies the derivative of the value function on both sides of the stopping boundary. It strengthens a derivative match along a single direction or a chosen sequence into continuous differentiability on the whole state space. This is relevant to free-boundary formulations of optimal stopping, where interior regularity can be available from a Dirichlet or Poisson problem while boundary regularity remains the missing step. The authors describe that distinction in their discussion of smooth fit and global differentiability. Source: §2.5, p. 8.

The mathematical theorem is proved in the 2020 paper. In this mission, the definitions and statements compile as Lean declarations, while the theorem proofs remain to be formalized. A complete development would supply reusable arguments about hitting times, semicontinuity of hitting probabilities, stochastic flows, and limits of derivatives near a stopping boundary. Those components would also support the paper's finite-horizon spatial and temporal results.

The central difficulty

The value is a supremum over stopping rules. Differentiating the reward for a fixed stopping time does not automatically differentiate that supremum, because the optimal time depends on the initial state. Near the boundary, even continuity of the value does not control the duration of the optimal rule from neighboring states. The paper's probabilistic regularity conditions address that duration, while (4.4)–(4.7) provide the integrability needed to pass to derivative limits. A direct appeal to interior differentiability leaves the boundary itself untreated. Source: §§3–4.1, pp. 9–15.

Formalization scope

The state space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with d≥1d\ge1d≥1; Fin d indices are the paper's coordinates 1,…,d1,\ldots,d1,…,d shifted by one. Balls are open Euclidean balls. Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and the entry and hitting times live in R≥0∪{+∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{+\infty\}R≥0​∪{+∞} so an unattained hit has its intended value. The flow is the process; no separate family of measures PxP_xPx​ is introduced. One common filtration is used for all initial states and is right-continuous. Its finite stopping times are the full admissible class, not only hitting times.

The value uses Bochner expectations and real Lebesgue time integrals. Well-posedness records integrability for every admissible payoff and optimality and almost sure finiteness of τDx\tau_D^xτDx​. The generator clause acts on smooth functions in the domain of the discounted transition semigroup; it retains the paper's diffusion, drift, killing, and jump terms. The boundary is D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C, and approach through continuation points is expressed by the within-set neighborhood filter. Pointwise continuous differentiability means a Fréchet derivative at zzz equal to DG(z)D G(z)DG(z) and convergence of DVD VDV along CCC; the goal uses global ContDiff. The local bounds retain all independently indexed starting states and coordinates. Their uncountable suprema are represented by integrable common majorants, with timewise measurable envelopes for the suprema inside time integrals. This convention excludes default integral values from nonmeasurable or nonintegrable expressions.

A formalization restricted to Brownian motion, one dimension, zero or constant discount, continuous paths, bounded rewards, or only one boundary regularity branch would state a different theorem. Contributions toward measurable hitting-time events, the two Section 3 regularity chains, the envelope bounds, and the derivative comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • De Angelis, T., and Peskir, G., Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems, Annals of Applied Probability 30(3), 2020. arXiv:1812.04564v2; DOI:10.1214/19-AAP1517.
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation 2: The Value Functions of the Penalized Mean Field Games Converge in L¹ to the Value Function of the Liquidation-Constrained GameResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal portfolio liquidation asks how a trader should unwind a position of X\mathcal XX shares over a horizon [0,T][0,T][0,T] when trading moves prices. Since Almgren and Chriss (2001) the standard model charges a quadratic cost ηtξt2\eta_t\xi_t^2ηt​ξt2​ for trading at rate ξt\xi_tξt​ (temporary impact) and a risk penalty λtXt2\lambda_tX_t^2λt​Xt2​ on the open position, and imposes the liquidation constraint XT=0X_T=0XT​=0. When many traders liquidate at once, each one's costs also depend on the others' aggregate trading rate μt\mu_tμt​ through a permanent impact term κtμtXt\kappa_t\mu_tX_tκt​μt​Xt​. Fu, Graewe, Horst and Popier (arXiv:1804.04911) model this as a mean field game (MFG) with common noise and prove that, under a weak-interaction condition, the game has a unique equilibrium.

The liquidation constraint makes the problem singular: the value function blows up at TTT, and the equilibrium is described by a forward-backward system whose decoupling field AAA satisfies a Riccati BSDE with terminal value AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞. A natural question is whether the constraint can be replaced by a finite penalty nXT2nX_T^2nXT2​ on the unliquidated position, a non-singular problem of the type studied in the MFG literature, and whether the penalized equilibria approach the constrained one as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Section 4 of the paper answers this at the level of values. In the single-agent case, singular terminal conditions of this type were studied by Ankirchner, Jeanblanc and Kruse (SIAM J. Control Optim., 2014) and Graewe, Horst and Séré (Stochastic Process. Appl., 2018), references [3] and [28] of the paper.

Setting

Fix T>0T>0T>0, an mmm-dimensional Brownian motion W~=(W0,W)\widetilde W=(W^0,W)W=(W0,W) whose first coordinate W0W^0W0 is common noise, and an initial position X∈L2\mathcal X\in L^2X∈L2 independent of W~\widetilde WW. Let F0\mathbb F^0F0 be the filtration of W0W^0W0 and F\mathbb FF that of (X,W~)(\mathcal X,\widetilde W)(X,W), both augmented. The coefficients κ,λ,η\kappa,\lambda,\etaκ,λ,η are bounded, nonnegative, F\mathbb FF-progressive processes, with λ\lambdaλ and η\etaη bounded below by positive constants. Write κmax⁡\kappa_{\max}κmax​, η⋆\eta_\starη⋆​, λ⋆\lambda_\starλ⋆​ for the essential supremum of κ\kappaκ and the essential infima of η\etaη and λ\lambdaλ, ∥η∥\|\eta\|∥η∥ for the essential supremum of ∣η∣|\eta|∣η∣, and α=η⋆/∥η∥∈(0,1]\alpha=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|\in(0,1]α=η⋆​/∥η∥∈(0,1]. Assumption 2.3 adds the weak-interaction condition: some θ>0\theta>0θ>0 satisfies κmax⁡<4η⋆θ\kappa_{\max}<4\eta_\star\thetaκmax​<4η⋆​θ and θκmax⁡<4λ⋆\theta\kappa_{\max}<4\lambda_\starθκmax​<4λ⋆​.

Given an aggregate rate μ\muμ, a trading rate ξ∈LF2\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}ξ∈LF2​ yields the position Xtξ=X−∫0tξs dsX^\xi_t=\mathcal X-\int_0^t\xi_s\,dsXtξ​=X−∫0t​ξs​ds. The constrained problem minimizes

J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κsμsXsξ+ηsξs2+λs(Xsξ)2)ds ∣ X]J(\mathcal X,\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_s\mu_sX^\xi_s+\eta_s\xi_s^2+\lambda_s(X^\xi_s)^2\big)ds\,\Big|\,\mathcal X\Big]J(X,ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κs​μs​Xsξ​+ηs​ξs2​+λs​(Xsξ​)2)ds​X]

over ξ\xiξ with ∫0Tξs ds=X\int_0^T\xi_s\,ds=\mathcal X∫0T​ξs​ds=X; its value is V(X;μ)V(\mathcal X;\mu)V(X;μ). The penalized problem (4.1) drops the constraint and minimizes

Jn(ξ;μ)=E[∫0T(κtμtXtξ+ηtξt2+λt(Xtξ)2)dt+n(XTξ)2 ∣ X]J^n(\xi;\mu)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^T\big(\kappa_t\mu_tX^\xi_t+\eta_t\xi_t^2+\lambda_t(X^\xi_t)^2\big)dt+n(X^\xi_T)^2\,\Big|\,\mathcal X\Big]Jn(ξ;μ)=E[∫0T​(κt​μt​Xtξ​+ηt​ξt2​+λt​(Xtξ​)2)dt+n(XTξ​)2​X]

over all ξ∈LF2\xi\in L^2_{\mathbb F}ξ∈LF2​, with value Vn(X;μ)V^n(\mathcal X;\mu)Vn(X;μ). An equilibrium is a fixed point μt=E[ξt∗∣Ft0]\mu_t=\mathbb E[\xi^*_t|\mathcal F^0_t]μt​=E[ξt∗​∣Ft0​].

The constrained equilibrium is given by the FBSDE (2.3), dXt=−Yt2ηtdtdX_t=-\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}dtdXt​=−2ηt​Yt​​dt, −dYt=(κtE[Yt2ηt∣Ft0]+2λtXt)dt−Zt dW~t-dY_t=\big(\kappa_t\mathbb E[\frac{Y_t}{2\eta_t}|\mathcal F^0_t]+2\lambda_tX_t\big)dt-Z_t\,d\widetilde W_t−dYt​=(κt​E[2ηt​Yt​​∣Ft0​]+2λt​Xt​)dt−Zt​dWt​, X0=XX_0=\mathcal XX0​=X, XT=0X_T=0XT​=0, decoupled as Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B where

−dAt=(2λt−At22ηt)dt−ZtA dW~t,AT=+∞.-dA_t=\Big(2\lambda_t-\frac{A_t^2}{2\eta_t}\Big)dt-Z^A_t\,d\widetilde W_t,\qquad A_T=+\infty .−dAt​=(2λt​−2ηt​At2​​)dt−ZtA​dWt​,AT​=+∞.

The penalized equilibria are given by the FBSDE (4.2) with YTn=2nXTnY^n_T=2nX^n_TYTn​=2nXTn​, decoupled by AnA^nAn, the solution of the same Riccati BSDE with ATn=2nA^n_T=2nATn​=2n. The solutions live in weighted spaces: Hl\mathcal H_lHl​ with norm (Esup⁡t∣Yt/(T−t)l∣2)1/2\big(\mathbb E\sup_t|Y_t/(T-t)^l|^2\big)^{1/2}(Esupt​∣Yt​/(T−t)l∣2)1/2, and the penalized analogue Hln\mathcal H^n_lHln​ with weight (T−t+η⋆/n)−l(T-t+\eta_\star/n)^{-l}(T−t+η⋆​/n)−l. Assumption 4.1 requires a constant CCC with exp⁡(−∫rsAu2ηudu)≤CT−sT−r\exp\big(-\int_r^s\frac{A_u}{2\eta_u}du\big)\le C\frac{T-s}{T-r}exp(−∫rs​2ηu​Au​​du)≤CT−rT−s​ for all 0≤r≤s<T0\le r\le s<T0≤r≤s<T, almost surely.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.6

Under Assumptions 2.3 and 4.1, with μ∗=E[Y/(2η)∣F0]\mu^*=\mathbb E[Y/(2\eta)|\mathcal F^0]μ∗=E[Y/(2η)∣F0] the constrained equilibrium and μn=E[Yn/(2η)∣F0]\mu^n=\mathbb E[Y^n/(2\eta)|\mathcal F^0]μn=E[Yn/(2η)∣F0] the penalized ones,

lim⁡n→∞E∣Vn(X;μn)−V(X;μ∗)∣=0.\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathbb E\big|V^n(\mathcal X;\mu^n)-V(\mathcal X;\mu^*)\big|=0 .n→∞lim​E​Vn(X;μn)−V(X;μ∗)​=0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.2 (first condition). If η\etaη is deterministic, Assumption 4.1 holds.
  2. Lemma A.3. AnA^nAn exists uniquely, Atn≥(12n+E[∫tTds2ηs∣Ft])−1A^n_t\ge\big(\frac1{2n}+\mathbb E[\int_t^T\frac{ds}{2\eta_s}|\mathcal F_t]\big)^{-1}Atn​≥(2n1​+E[∫tT​2ηs​ds​∣Ft​])−1, An↑AA^n\uparrow AAn↑A, and ∥An∥M−1+∥An∥M−1n≤C\|A^n\|_{\mathcal M_{-1}}+\|A^n\|_{\mathcal M^n_{-1}}\le\mathfrak C∥An∥M−1​​+∥An∥M−1n​​≤C uniformly in nnn.
  3. Theorem 4.3. The FBSDE (4.4), with parameter p∈[0,1]\mathfrak p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1] and data f∈L2f\in L^2f∈L2, has a unique solution in Hαn×Hγn×S2×L2×L2\mathcal H^n_\alpha\times\mathcal H^n_\gamma\times S^2\times L^2\times L^2Hαn​×Hγn​×S2×L2×L2.
  4. Lemma 4.4. ∥Xn∥n,α+∥Bn∥n,γ+E∫0T∣Ytn∣2dt≤C‾\|X^n\|_{n,\alpha}+\|B^n\|_{n,\gamma}+\mathbb E\int_0^T|Y^n_t|^2dt\le\overline{\mathfrak C}∥Xn∥n,α​+∥Bn∥n,γ​+E∫0T​∣Ytn​∣2dt≤C uniformly in nnn.
  5. (4.8). Under Assumption 4.1 the constrained equilibrium position satisfies ∥X∗∥1<∞\|X^*\|_1<\infty∥X∗∥1​<∞.
  6. Lemma 4.5. (Xn,Bn,Yn)→(X,B,Y)(X^n,B^n,Y^n)\to(X,B,Y)(Xn,Bn,Yn)→(X,B,Y) in L2(dt⊗dP)L^2(dt\otimes d\mathbb P)L2(dt⊗dP).

Significance

The result is a consistency statement between two models of liquidation. Penalized models are what a numerical scheme or a standard MFG solver can handle, since their FBSDEs have finite terminal data. Theorem 4.6 says that equilibrium values computed with a large penalty approximate the value of the hard-constrained game, and Lemma 4.5 says the same for positions and trading rates. Without it, a penalized model would be an unrelated object rather than an approximation of the constrained one.

The result is proved in the paper; it is not formalized anywhere. A machine-checked development would need, beyond the paper, the theory of quadratic BSDEs with finite and singular terminal values, conditional mean-field FBSDEs with common noise, and conditional essential infima of control problems. The milestones isolate reusable pieces: the monotone approximation of a singular Riccati BSDE (Lemma A.3) and uniform estimates in nnn-dependent weighted spaces (Lemma 4.4).

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the two problems control by control: the constrained optimizer is admissible for the penalized problem, so Vn≤VV^n\le VVn≤V up to the change of μ\muμ. The reverse inequality is where it fails. The penalized optimizer leaves a residual position XTn≠0X^n_T\neq0XTn​=0, and its cost has to be compared with the singular one, whose weight (T−t)−1(T-t)^{-1}(T−t)−1 explodes at TTT. Controlling this requires estimates uniform in nnn in spaces whose weights (T−t+η⋆/n)−l(T-t+\eta_\star/n)^{-l}(T−t+η⋆​/n)−l degenerate as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞, and the bare exponent α=η⋆/∥η∥<1\alpha=\eta_\star/\|\eta\|<1α=η⋆​/∥η∥<1 of the constrained problem is not enough to make the boundary terms vanish. Assumption 4.1, which upgrades the state to H1\mathcal H_1H1​, is what closes the gap. In addition, the aggregate rate μn\mu^nμn changes with nnn, so both the controls and the cost functional move at once.

Formalization scope

Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​; processes are real-valued functions of (t,ω)(t,\omega)(t,ω); WWW is the m=k+1m=k+1m=k+1-dimensional W~\widetilde WW with coordinate 000 the common noise. Stochastic integrals and BSDEs come from the published definition Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic. BSDEs on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T) are imposed on every [0,τ][0,\tau][0,τ], τ<T\tau<Tτ<T; AT=+∞A_T=+\inftyAT​=+∞ is lim⁡t↑TAt=+∞\lim_{t\uparrow T}A_t=+\inftylimt↑T​At​=+∞ a.s. Conditional expectations inside drivers are F0\mathbb F^0F0-progressive versions of integrable processes. Weighted norms are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The explicit readings are:

  • κmax⁡,η⋆,λ⋆,∥η∥\kappa_{\max},\eta_\star,\lambda_\star,\|\eta\|κmax​,η⋆​,λ⋆​,∥η∥ are essential bounds over dt⊗dPdt\otimes d\mathbb Pdt⊗dP; (2.4) is stated without division; "1/λ,1/η∈L∞1/\lambda,1/\eta\in L^\infty1/λ,1/η∈L∞" is a positive essential lower bound.
  • Assumption 2.3 is a hypothesis of every statement, including Lemma A.3 (the appendix assumes only its boundedness part).
  • Assumption 4.1 holds almost surely with the constant chosen before ω\omegaω (as restated on p. 32).
  • The penalty index is an integer n≥1n\ge1n≥1; constants in Lemma A.3 and Lemma 4.4 are chosen before nnn.
  • The class of AnA^nAn is S2×L2S^2\times L^2S2×L2 on [0,T][0,T][0,T] (not printed in Lemma A.3).
  • The penalized control set is LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​, with no terminal constraint.
  • Values are conditional essential infima given σ(X)\sigma(\mathcal X)σ(X).
  • The equilibria μn,μ∗\mu^n,\mu^*μn,μ∗ of Theorem 4.6 are defined through the FBSDE solutions, as in the proof; uniqueness of penalized equilibria is not claimed.
  • The solution of Proposition 2.8 includes the relation Y=AX+BY=AX+BY=AX+B on [0,T)[0,T)[0,T); "Theorem 2.8" on pp. 25–29 means Proposition 2.8.
  • L1L^1L1 convergence means ∫∣Vn−V∣ dP→0\int|V^n-V|\,d\mathbb P\to0∫∣Vn−V∣dP→0, not convergence of expectations.

A trivializing formalization would quantify over all solutions of the penalized MFG (claiming a uniqueness the paper does not state) or define VVV by a pointwise infimum over all controls (which is −∞-\infty−∞ or junk); both are ruled out above. Contributions toward BSDE comparison principles and quadratic BSDE well-posedness on this stochastic-integral layer are welcome and reusable.

Selected references

  • G. Fu, P. Graewe, U. Horst, A. Popier, A Mean Field Game of Optimal Portfolio Liquidation, Math. Oper. Res. 46(4), 2021; preprint arXiv:1804.04911v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.04911
  • R. Almgren, N. Chriss, Optimal execution of portfolio transactions, Journal of Risk 3, 2001. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2001.041
  • S. Ankirchner, M. Jeanblanc, T. Kruse, BSDEs with singular terminal condition and a control problem with constraints, SIAM J. Control Optim. 52(2):893–913, 2014 (reference [3] of the paper).
  • P. Graewe, U. Horst, E. Séré, Smooth solutions to portfolio liquidation problems under price-sensitive market impact, Stochastic Process. Appl. 128(3):979–1006, 2018 (reference [28] of the paper).
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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