Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs 2: With a Common Generating Function, a Looser Information Relaxation Gives a Weaker Dual BoundResearch Paper
Motivation
Many stochastic dynamic programs in operations research, such as inventory control with partially observed demand or the pricing of American options, are too large to solve exactly. A heuristic policy gives a lower bound on the optimal expected reward; to judge whether it is good enough one needs an upper bound. Brown, Smith and Sun (Oper. Res. 2010) build such bounds by information relaxation: let the decision maker see more than she would in reality, and charge a penalty for using the extra information. The construction generalizes the martingale duality for optimal stopping of Haugh and Kogan (Oper. Res. 2004), Rogers (Math. Finance 2002) and Andersen and Broadie (Manage. Sci. 2004).
In applications, the analyst chooses both the relaxation and the penalty, trading the quality of the bound against the cost of computing it. Proposition 2.3 of the paper collects four properties that govern this choice. The first is the subject of this mission.
Setting
Uncertainty is a probability space , and decisions are made in periods . The natural filtration records what is known in each period, with . An action sequence is , chosen from feasible sets . Period rewards are -measurable random variables and the total reward is .
A policy is a map from outcomes to feasible action sequences. It is adapted to a filtration if the period- action is -measurable; denotes these policies. A filtration with for all is a relaxation of , written . A penalty is a function ; it is dual feasible if for every . For any relaxation and dual feasible , the dual bound
is at least the optimal value (weak duality, Lemma 2.1).
The paper's main source of penalties is Proposition 2.2. Given generating functions depending only on , set
Such a penalty has zero mean along every nonanticipative policy, and its dual bound is computed by the backward recursion (10), the Bellman recursion with rewards and conditional expectations given .
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 2.3(i)
For filtrations and one common sequence of generating functions , let be the Proposition 2.2 penalty of . Then
With a common generating function, a looser relaxation gives a weaker bound.
Milestones
- Equation (10). For a Proposition 2.2 penalty under a relaxation , the expectation of the initial dual value function equals the dual bound.
- Proposition 2.3(ii). For dual feasible and one relaxation , the difference of the two dual bounds lies between and , eq. (13).
- Proposition 2.3(iii). For , the penalty still satisfies the conclusions of Proposition 2.2.
- Proposition 2.3(iv). If are unbiased estimates of the terms of a dual feasible penalty, , and the relaxation additionally reveals the estimates, then the dual bound of is at most that of , eq. (14).
Milestone 1 is on the goal's path; milestones 2–4 are the remaining parts of the same proposition.
Significance
Proposition 2.3(i) tells the analyst how to read a weak bound. If a cheap generating function (for instance , the zero penalty) gives a satisfactory bound under some relaxation, it will give a bound at least as tight under any less informative relaxation that still contains ; conversely, moving to a looser relaxation without improving the generating function can only weaken the bound. Part (ii) is a continuity statement: penalties close to the ideal penalty give bounds close to the optimal value. Part (iii) permits the subtracted conditional expectation to be computed under an intermediate filtration, which the paper uses when volatility is unobserved in its option-pricing example. Part (iv) is the justification for estimating penalties by nested simulation, as in the methods of Haugh–Kogan and Andersen–Broadie: unbiased estimates yield valid, if weaker, upper bounds.
The results are proved in the paper's electronic companion. To our knowledge none of them, nor the information-relaxation duality framework itself, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires a usable theory of policies adapted to a filtration, penalties evaluated along random action sequences, and backward recursions with conditional expectations, all of which are reusable for other duality results in stochastic dynamic programming.
Difficulty
The obvious argument for (12) compares the two suprema policy by policy: . This fails, because the two bounds use different penalties: for a fixed -adapted policy, and need not agree, so the larger policy set alone does not order the bounds. The penalty changes with the relaxation exactly so as to remove part of the value of the extra information, and the statement asserts that it never removes more than that information is worth. Even the representation (10) of a dual bound by a backward recursion is nontrivial: it requires near-optimal actions to be selected measurably in every period.
In Lean, the further difficulty is the composition of an action-indexed family of conditional expectations with a random action: , where each is only defined almost surely. Countability of the action set is what makes this composite well defined up to null sets.
Formalization scope
Periods are Fin (T + 1); an action sequence is a function Fin (T + 1) → X for one countable action type X with the discrete σ-algebra (the disjoint union of the per-period action sets). Filtrations are Mathlib Filtrations of the ambient σ-algebra; a relaxation is 𝔽 ≤ 𝔾. Policies are maps Ω → (Fin (T + 1) → X) with values in the feasible set, adapted when each action is measurable for the corresponding σ-algebra. Conditional expectations are Mathlib's μ[f | m], so identities between them hold almost surely. Dual bounds are suprema in EReal over the adapted policy sets, so an infinite bound is represented and no junk value arises from an unbounded supremum.
Pinned regularity, beyond the paper's text: period rewards and generating functions are uniformly bounded (almost surely for the latter) and measurable, so that every expectation exists; in part (iv), the estimates are measurable and uniformly bounded. In part (ii), the difference of two dual bounds is taken in EReal, and the case where both bounds are (where the page's difference is undefined) is excluded.
The penalties of the goal are computed from by the formula of Proposition 2.2; stating the goal for arbitrary penalties with Proposition 2.2's properties would be a different and false claim. Likewise in part (iv) is constructed from and the estimates.
The definitions duplicate those of mission 1 of this series (the framework, the recursive model, the penalty construction); they are expected to be merged. Contributions of reusable lemmas about adapted policies over countable action sets and about backward recursions with conditional expectations are welcome.
Selected references
- D. B. Brown, J. E. Smith, P. Sun, Information Relaxations and Duality in Stochastic Dynamic Programs, Operations Research, Articles in Advance, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0796
- M. B. Haugh, L. Kogan, Pricing American Options: A Duality Approach, Operations Research 52(2), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0070
- L. Andersen, M. Broadie, Primal-Dual Simulation Algorithm for Pricing Multidimensional American Options, Management Science 50(9), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0258
- L. C. G. Rogers, Monte Carlo Valuation of American Options, Mathematical Finance 12(3), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.02010