A Simple Forward Algorithm to Solve General Dynamic Lot Sizing Models with n Periods in O(n log n) or O(n) Time: Minimal Optimal Predecessor Lists Are Characterized by Strictly Increasing BreakpointsResearch Paper
Motivation
The dynamic lot size model asks when, and how much, to order of a single item over a planning horizon of periods with known, time-varying demands, setup costs, unit order costs and holding costs. It is the textbook model of production planning and the building block of material requirements planning, multi-item scheduling and many decomposition schemes for larger supply-chain problems.
Wagner and Whitin (1958) showed that some optimal policy orders only when inventory is zero, which turns the problem into a shortest-path recursion with running time. For more than thirty years this was the standard algorithm. In 1991 three groups independently reduced the complexity: Federgruen and Tzur (Management Science 37(8), 1991), Wagelmans, van Hoesel and Kolen (Operations Research 40, 1992) and Aggarwal and Park (Operations Research 41, 1993). Each obtained in general and under special cost structures. The Federgruen–Tzur algorithm is a forward algorithm: at iteration it keeps a short list of periods that could still be the best last setup period for some future horizon, and updates it by local tests on neighbouring entries. This mission formalizes the theorem that justifies those tests.
Setting
For periods let be the demand, the setup cost, the variable per unit order cost and the cost of carrying a unit of inventory at the end of period . Write and , so . For let , let , and let
be the carrying cost of an order placed in period that covers the demands of periods .
The costs are given by the zero-inventory recursion (2): and, for ,
is the cost of the first periods when the last setup is in period .
For two periods the difference is affine in , with intercept given by (4) and slope . Its root is defined by (5): when the slopes differ, and or according to the sign of when they agree. It is extended symmetrically, .
At iteration the future demands are unknown, so a future horizon has a potential cumulative demand . The th Minimal Optimal Predecessors list is the set of periods that are the lowest-index optimal last setup period, among , for every potential cumulative demand in some open interval above .
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1(a)
Let and let with , ranked so that , with equal -values in ascending order of index. Put and for . Then
Milestones
In attack order:
- identity (1a) for the carrying costs;
- Lemma 2(a)–(d), the linearity of and the sign test against its root ;
- the claim that contains an optimal last setup period for the horizon ;
- the strict chains (7)–(8) of the Appendix;
- Theorem 1(b), that under (6) the first entry is an optimal last setup period ;
- Theorem 1(c)(i)–(iii), the three elimination rules: removes , removes , and removes .
A supporting item potCost_spec certifies that the potential costs used to define agree with the paper's , up to a term that does not depend on .
Significance
Theorem 1 is what makes the forward algorithm correct. Part (a) reduces the minimality of a candidate list to a condition on consecutive pairs of a sorted list. Part (c) says which entry to delete when the condition fails. Part (b) says where to read off the optimal last setup period. With these, is maintained by deletions at the ends and in the interior of a list ordered by , and each period is inserted and deleted at most once; the bound, and the bound under the paper's special cost structures, follow from this bookkeeping. The same lower-envelope reasoning appears in the other 1991–1993 algorithms and in later extensions to backlogging and capacitated variants.
The result has a complete published proof. To our knowledge there is no machine-checked development of the Wagner–Whitin recursion or of any of the fast lot-sizing algorithms. This mission produces the model, the breakpoints and the Minimal Optimal Predecessors lists as reusable definitions, and a checked proof of the characterization. It also records two small corrections that a formal reading forces on the printed text (see Formalization scope).
Difficulty
Each piece in isolation is elementary algebra on affine functions. The difficulty is in the combinatorics of the lower envelope with ties. The natural argument "consecutive breakpoints increase, so each line owns an interval" must handle three things:
- equal slopes, where ;
- several lines meeting at one point;
- the lowest-index tie-breaking that makes minimal.
The "only if" direction needs every failure of (6) to be traced to an element that is never the unique lowest-index optimum on an interval. Ties are exactly where the printed definition of , read literally at a single demand value, breaks the theorem. A proof that ignores ties proves a statement that is false.
Formalization scope
- Data and costs. The data are four functions bundled in a structure; values at index are unused, and no sign conditions are imposed. is defined by the recursion (2) with . Its identification with the minimum cost over all feasible policies is the paper's Lemma 1 (Wagner–Whitin), which is not part of this mission. The horizon is not a parameter.
- Breakpoints. and the critical values take values in
EReal, so are kept distinct from every real number. The final "" of (6) is part of the condition. - Ranked lists. A ranked set is a duplicate-free
List ℕ. Lean lists are 0-based, so the paper's and are entry andgval j L m. - Disclosed change 1, . The page asks for a single potential cumulative demand at which is the lowest-index optimum. With that reading, Theorem 1(a) "only if" and Theorem 1(c) fail when two lines tie exactly at a breakpoint (an explicit five-period instance is in the definition's note). The formalization requires to be the lowest-index optimum on a nondegenerate open interval of potential demands above . This is the paper's own description of the list on p. 915: "the unique optimal last setup period for any horizon … with potential cumulative demand ".
- Disclosed change 2, Lemma 2(d). The printed hypothesis "" duplicates part (c) and is read as "". The equivalence " iff " is stated under , since gives by (5).
- Ruling out trivial formalizations. The hypotheses of the goal are satisfiable for every : rank itself. is nonempty (a milestone). for is a minimum over the nonempty set , never a default value. is never replaced by a real-valued junk value at equal slopes.
- Out of scope. Lemma 1, Lemma 3, Corollaries 1–5, Theorem 2, the Algorithm's pseudo-code and its complexity analysis, and the submodularity discussion of §5.
- Reusable infrastructure. The model, the recursion (2), , and can be reused for the paper's algorithmic results and for related lot-sizing papers. Proofs of the milestones, in any order, are welcome.
Selected references
- A. Federgruen and M. Tzur, A Simple Forward Algorithm to Solve General Dynamic Lot Sizing Models with n Periods in O(n log n) or O(n) Time, Management Science 37(8):909–925, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.37.8.909
- H. M. Wagner and T. M. Whitin, Dynamic Version of the Economic Lot Size Model, Management Science 5(1):89–96, 1958. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.5.1.89
- A. Wagelmans, S. van Hoesel and A. Kolen, Economic Lot-Sizing: An O(n log n) Algorithm That Runs in Linear Time in the Wagner-Whitin Case, Operations Research 40(1-supplement-1):S145–S156, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.1.S145
- A. Aggarwal and J. K. Park, Improved Algorithms for Economic Lot Size Problems, Operations Research 41(3):549–571, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.3.549