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Machine LearningOptimal TransportStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 2: ℓp-Regularized Logistic Regression and the Hinge-Loss SVM Are Wasserstein DRO under a Label-Preserving Transport CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Regularized logistic regression and the support vector machine (SVM) are two of the most widely used linear classifiers. Both are usually introduced as empirical risk minimization plus a norm penalty ∥β∥p\|\beta\|_p∥β∥p​ whose size is tuned by cross-validation, with the penalty justified heuristically as a guard against overfitting. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers a different reading: instead of minimizing the average loss on the training sample, minimize the worst average loss over all distributions close to the empirical one. Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627v4; J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) show that, for a suitable notion of closeness based on optimal transport, the robust problem and the penalized problem coincide exactly. The penalty is then the price of robustness against perturbations of the predictors, and the regularization parameter becomes the radius of an uncertainty set, which the same paper later chooses by a statistical criterion (the robust Wasserstein profile).

Related earlier work: Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (NIPS 2015) studied Wasserstein-robust logistic regression with a metric that charges a finite price κ\kappaκ for flipping a label, and obtained regularized logistic regression only in the limit κ→∞\kappa \to \inftyκ→∞. The result formalized here is the exact statement at κ=∞\kappa = \inftyκ=∞, together with the analogous statement for the hinge loss.

Setting

Training data are pairs (X1,Y1),…,(Xn,Yn)(X_1,Y_1),\dots,(X_n,Y_n)(X1​,Y1​),…,(Xn​,Yn​) with predictors Xi∈RdX_i \in \mathbb R^dXi​∈Rd and labels Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. Their empirical distribution is Pn=1n∑i=1nδ(Xi,Yi)P_n = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \delta_{(X_i,Y_i)}Pn​=n1​∑i=1n​δ(Xi​,Yi​)​, a probability measure on Z=Rd×RZ = \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb RZ=Rd×R.

For a cost c:Z×Z→[0,∞]c : Z \times Z \to [0,\infty]c:Z×Z→[0,∞], the optimal transport cost between probability measures PPP and QQQ on ZZZ is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU=P, πW=Q}.D_c(P,Q) = \inf\big\{\mathbb E_\pi[c(U,W)] : \pi \text{ a probability measure on } Z\times Z,\ \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q\big\}.Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU​=P, πW​=Q}.

The cost used here is the label-preserving cost: for q∈[1,∞]q \in [1,\infty]q∈[1,∞],

Nq((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q if y=v,+∞ otherwise.N_q\big((x,y),(u,v)\big) = \|x - u\|_q \text{ if } y = v, \qquad +\infty \text{ otherwise}.Nq​((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q​ if y=v,+∞ otherwise.

Every distribution PPP with DNq(P,Pn)<∞D_{N_q}(P,P_n) < \inftyDNq​​(P,Pn​)<∞ has the same label distribution as PnP_nPn​; only the predictors are perturbed. The exponent ppp is the conjugate of qqq, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1.

The losses are the log-exponential loss log⁡(1+e−yβTx)\log(1 + e^{-y\beta^T x})log(1+e−yβTx) and the hinge loss (1−yβTx)+(1 - y\beta^T x)^+(1−yβTx)+, for a coefficient vector β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd. The worst-case expected loss at radius δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 is sup⁡{EP[l]:DNq(P,Pn)≤δ}\sup\{\mathbb E_P[l] : D_{N_q}(P,P_n) \le \delta\}sup{EP​[l]:DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δ}, the supremum over probability measures PPP on ZZZ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 11)

For every δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 and every β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd,

sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[log⁡(1+e−YβTX)]=1n∑i=1nlog⁡(1+e−YiβTXi)+δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[\log(1 + e^{-Y\beta^T X})\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \log(1 + e^{-Y_i\beta^T X_i}) + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[log(1+e−YβTX)]=n1​i=1∑n​log(1+e−Yi​βTXi​)+δ∥β∥p​, sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[(1−YβTX)+]=1n∑i=1n(1−YiβTXi)++δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(1 - Y\beta^T X)^+\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n (1 - Y_i\beta^T X_i)^+ + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(1−YβTX)+]=n1​i=1∑n​(1−Yi​βTXi​)++δ∥β∥p​,

and consequently the two identities obtained by taking inf⁡β\inf_{\beta}infβ​ on both sides, which is how the paper prints the theorem.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): strong duality, sup⁡P:Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[l]=min⁡γ≥0{γδ+1n∑iφγ(Xi,Yi)}\sup_{P: D_c(P,P_n)\le\delta}\mathbb E_P[l] = \min_{\gamma\ge0}\{\gamma\delta + \frac1n\sum_i\varphi_\gamma(X_i,Y_i)\}supP:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δ​EP​[l]=minγ≥0​{γδ+n1​∑i​φγ​(Xi​,Yi​)} with φγ(z0)=sup⁡z{l(z)−γc(z,z0)}\varphi_\gamma(z_0) = \sup_z\{l(z) - \gamma c(z,z_0)\}φγ​(z0​)=supz​{l(z)−γc(z,z0​)}, for a lower semicontinuous cost vanishing on the diagonal, an upper semicontinuous loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  2. Logistic inner supremum (proof of Theorem 2, p. 30): sup⁡x{log⁡(1+e−y0βTx)−λ∥x−x0∥q}\sup_x\{\log(1+e^{-y_0\beta^T x}) - \lambda\|x - x_0\|_q\}supx​{log(1+e−y0​βTx)−λ∥x−x0​∥q​} equals the loss at x0x_0x0​ if ∥β∥p≤λ\|\beta\|_p \le \lambda∥β∥p​≤λ and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  3. Logistic outer minimisation (p. 30): the infimum over λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 of δλ\delta\lambdaδλ plus the average of these suprema equals the regularized empirical loss.
  4. Hinge inner supremum (pp. 30–31) and 5. hinge outer minimisation (p. 31): the same two steps for the hinge loss.

Significance

The theorem identifies two standard estimators as exact solutions of a robust decision problem. Consequences: the penalty δ∥β∥p\delta\|\beta\|_pδ∥β∥p​ has a quantitative meaning (the adversary's transport budget), the regularization parameter can be chosen by the paper's robust Wasserstein profile instead of cross-validation, and the norm of the penalty is tied to the geometry of the perturbations (perturbations measured in ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ give an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ penalty). The same identity is the input of the paper's coverage bound (Proposition 6) for ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known. The formalization adds a precise statement of the objects involved (couplings with both marginals fixed, an infinite cost across labels, expectations of nonnegative losses with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]), a checked version of the duality step specialised to this cost, and the treatment of boundary cases (δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, β=0\beta = 0β=0, q∈{1,∞}q \in \{1,\infty\}q∈{1,∞}) that the paper does not discuss.

Difficulty

The identities are short once Proposition 1 is available, so the weight of the mission lies in two places. First, Proposition 1 itself is a strong duality theorem for optimal transport over all probability measures on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, with a cost that takes the value +∞+\infty+∞ and an unbounded loss, and with attainment of the dual minimum; it is quoted from Blanchet and Murthy (Math. Oper. Res. 2019) and not proved in this paper. The weak-duality inequality is routine; the reverse inequality requires constructing near-optimal distributions from the dual, which needs measurable selection of near-maximizers and does not follow from finite-dimensional convex duality. Second, the inner suprema require an exact Hölder-attainment argument for the pair of conjugate norms ℓp\ell_pℓp​ and ℓq\ell_qℓq​, including q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞, and for the hinge loss a minimax exchange over α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0,1]α∈[0,1]. Bypassing duality by a direct construction of the worst distribution is possible for the upper value but not obviously for the lower bound at the boundary λ=∥β∥p\lambda = \|\beta\|_pλ=∥β∥p​.

Formalization scope

  • Predictors are Fin d → ℝ, a data point is (Fin d → ℝ) × ℝ with the product Borel σ-algebra, and samples are indexed by Fin n with 0 < n. Labels are real numbers with the hypothesis Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, which Theorem 2 inherits from Example 2; the cost NqN_qNq​ is defined on all of Rd×R\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb RRd×R.
  • The ℓq\ell_qℓq​ norm is the norm of PiLp q, with q p : ℝ≥0∞ and p.HolderConjugate q; q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ are included, and no further restriction on qqq is imposed.
  • The transport cost is an infimum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures on Z×ZZ\times ZZ×Z with both marginals fixed. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of the nonnegative losses, and the worst case is a supremum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures. The empirical distribution is the published platform definition WassersteinDRO.Regularization.empiricalDistribution.
  • Readings. The paper prints the SVM identity without inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on the right; the goal states the per-β\betaβ identities (what the proof establishes) and the identities of infima with inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on both sides. The proof's displays write the transport norm as ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ and the penalty as ∥β∥q\|\beta\|_q∥β∥q​, the reverse of the theorem; milestones use the theorem's convention. The logistic chain's printed indicators 1{λ>∥β∥}\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda>\|\beta\|\}}1{λ>∥β∥}​, ∞1{λ≤∥β∥}\infty\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda\le\|\beta\|\}}∞1{λ≤∥β∥}​ should read ≥\ge≥ and <<<; the stated end-to-end identity is unaffected. Proposition 1 is stated with a fixed nonnegative loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a cost infimum over sub-probability couplings or with one marginal free, or a Bochner expectation that vanishes on non-integrable laws, would make the worst case +∞+\infty+∞ or 000; the definitions here fix both marginals, use probability measures only and integrate in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. At δ=0\delta = 0δ=0 the ball is {Pn}\{P_n\}{Pn​} and both sides reduce to the empirical loss.
  • Infrastructure needed: optimal-transport duality with extended-valued lower semicontinuous costs (reusable well beyond this mission), Hölder equality cases for PiLp, and calculus for the logistic function. Contributions to any of these are welcome, as are proofs of the inner suprema, which are independent of Proposition 1.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, NIPS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VIII: No Black-Box Method Beats 3β‖x₁ − x*‖²/(32(t + 1)²) on β-Smooth Convex FunctionsTextbook

Why lower bounds for first-order methods

Upper bounds for an optimization method say how fast it converges; oracle complexity lower bounds say how fast any method of a given kind can possibly converge. Chapter 3 of S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4), 2015, arXiv:1405.4980) proves upper bounds for subgradient descent on Lipschitz functions and for gradient methods on smooth functions. Section 3.5 (Lower bounds, pp. 279–283) shows that these rates cannot be improved by more than a numerical constant, as long as the number of queries is smaller than the dimension. For smooth convex functions the matching lower bound is what identifies Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent, with its 1/t21/t^21/t2 rate, as an optimal method.

Timeline. The lower bounds first appeared in A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization (Wiley, 1983). The presentation followed by the book, with an explicit tridiagonal quadratic as the hard instance and the "span of past gradients" restriction on the method, is that of Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization (Kluwer, 2004), §2.1.2. Nesterov's accelerated method (1983) attains the matching upper bound.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean inner product x⊤yx^\top yx⊤y, coordinates x(1),…,x(n)x(1),\dots,x(n)x(1),…,x(n), canonical basis e1,…,ene_1,\dots,e_ne1​,…,en​ and balls B2(R)={x:∥x∥≤R}\mathrm B_2(R)=\{x:\|x\|\le R\}B2​(R)={x:∥x∥≤R}. A first-order oracle for fff answers a query xxx with a subgradient g∈∂f(x)g\in\partial f(x)g∈∂f(x) (the gradient when fff is differentiable). A black-box procedure maps the history (x1,g1,…,xt,gt)(x_1,g_1,\dots,x_t,g_t)(x1​,g1​,…,xt​,gt​) to the next query xt+1x_{t+1}xt+1​. Section 3.5 restricts attention to procedures with

x1=0,xt+1∈Span(g1,…,gt)(t≥0),(3.15)x_1=0,\qquad x_{t+1}\in\mathrm{Span}(g_1,\dots,g_t)\quad(t\ge0), \tag{3.15}x1​=0,xt+1​∈Span(g1​,…,gt​)(t≥0),(3.15)

which covers gradient descent, its accelerated variants and conjugate gradient. A function is β\betaβ-smooth if its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz; LLL-Lipschitz on X\mathcal XX if every subgradient at every point of X\mathcal XX has norm at most LLL; α\alphaα-strongly convex if x↦f(x)−α2∥x∥2x\mapsto f(x)-\frac\alpha2\|x\|^2x↦f(x)−2α​∥x∥2 is convex.

The hard smooth instance uses, for k≤nk\le nk≤n, the symmetric tridiagonal matrix AkA_kAk​ with entries 222 on the first kkk diagonal positions and −1-1−1 on the neighbouring off-diagonal positions of the leading k×kk\times kk×k block, zero elsewhere, and the quadratics

fk(x)=β8x⊤Akx−β4x⊤e1,fk∗=inf⁡x∈Rnfk(x).f_k(x)=\frac\beta8x^\top A_kx-\frac\beta4x^\top e_1 ,\qquad f_k^*=\inf_{x\in\mathbb R^n}f_k(x).fk​(x)=8β​x⊤Ak​x−4β​x⊤e1​,fk∗​=x∈Rninf​fk​(x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.14 (p. 282)

For 1≤t≤n−121\le t\le\frac{n-1}21≤t≤2n−1​ and β>0\beta>0β>0 there are a β\betaβ-smooth convex fff and a minimizer x∗x^*x∗ such that every procedure satisfying (3.15) has

min⁡1≤s≤tf(xs)−f(x∗) ≥ 3β32 ∥x1−x∗∥2(t+1)2.\min_{1\le s\le t}f(x_s)-f(x^*)\ \ge\ \frac{3\beta}{32}\,\frac{\|x_1-x^*\|^2}{(t+1)^2}.1≤s≤tmin​f(xs​)−f(x∗) ≥ 323β​(t+1)2∥x1​−x∗∥2​.

The constant 3/323/323/32 is the book's.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 3.14, pp. 282–283)

  1. 0⪯Ak⪯4In0\preceq A_k\preceq4I_n0⪯Ak​⪯4In​, through x⊤Akx=x(1)2+x(k)2+∑i=1k−1(x(i)−x(i+1))2x^\top A_kx=x(1)^2+x(k)^2+\sum_{i=1}^{k-1}(x(i)-x(i+1))^2x⊤Ak​x=x(1)2+x(k)2+∑i=1k−1​(x(i)−x(i+1))2.
  2. For f=f2t+1f=f_{2t+1}f=f2t+1​ and any procedure satisfying (3.15), xs∈Span(e1,…,es−1)x_s\in\mathrm{Span}(e_1,\dots,e_{s-1})xs​∈Span(e1​,…,es−1​); hence f(xs)=fs(xs)f(x_s)=f_s(x_s)f(xs​)=fs​(xs​) for s≤ts\le ts≤t.
  3. xk∗(i)=1−ik+1x_k^*(i)=1-\frac i{k+1}xk∗​(i)=1−k+1i​ solves Akx=e1A_kx=e_1Ak​x=e1​, minimizes fkf_kfk​, and fk∗=−β8(1−1k+1)f_k^*=-\frac\beta8\bigl(1-\frac1{k+1}\bigr)fk∗​=−8β​(1−k+11​).
  4. ∥xk∗∥2≤k+13\|x_k^*\|^2\le\frac{k+1}3∥xk∗​∥2≤3k+1​.
  5. ft∗−f2t+1∗=β8(1t+1−12t+2)≥3β32∥x2t+1∗∥2(t+1)2f_t^*-f_{2t+1}^*=\frac\beta8\bigl(\frac1{t+1}-\frac1{2t+2}\bigr)\ge\frac{3\beta}{32}\frac{\|x^*_{2t+1}\|^2}{(t+1)^2}ft∗​−f2t+1∗​=8β​(t+11​−2t+21​)≥323β​(t+1)2∥x2t+1∗​∥2​.

Companion: Theorem 3.13 (p. 280)

For 1≤t≤n1\le t\le n1≤t≤n and L,R>0L,R>0L,R>0 there are a convex fff, LLL-Lipschitz on B2(R)\mathrm B_2(R)B2​(R), and a first-order oracle for it such that every procedure satisfying (3.15) has min⁡s≤tf(xs)−min⁡B2(R)f≥RL2(1+t)\min_{s\le t}f(x_s)-\min_{\mathrm B_2(R)}f\ge\frac{RL}{2(1+\sqrt t)}mins≤t​f(xs​)−minB2​(R)​f≥2(1+t​)RL​; and for α>0\alpha>0α>0 there are an α\alphaα-strongly convex fff, LLL-Lipschitz on B2(L2α)\mathrm B_2(\frac L{2\alpha})B2​(2αL​), and an oracle with gap at least L28αt\frac{L^2}{8\alpha t}8αtL2​ over that ball.

Significance

The upper bounds of Chapter 3 (projected subgradient descent at rate RL/tRL/\sqrt tRL/t​, accelerated gradient descent at rate β∥x1−x∗∥2/t2\beta\|x_1-x^*\|^2/t^2β∥x1​−x∗∥2/t2) become optimal statements only through these lower bounds: no method in the class (3.15) can be faster by more than a constant factor while ttt is below the dimension. The restriction to t≲nt\lesssim nt≲n is necessary, since Chapter 2's cutting-plane methods converge exponentially once the number of queries exceeds the dimension.

The results are classical and proved. Formalizing them yields machine-checked versions of the quadratic-form computation for the tridiagonal matrix, of the Krylov-type support argument under (3.15), and of the explicit minimizer of fkf_kfk​, each reusable in other lower-bound arguments (Theorem 3.15 in ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​, lower bounds for strongly convex smooth functions, conjugate gradient analyses). The platform held no formal statement of these oracle lower bounds when this mission was drafted.

Difficulty

Each analytic step is elementary; the difficulty is in the bookkeeping. The span argument is an induction that must track, at each step, that the gradient of a tridiagonal quadratic at a vector supported on the first s−1s-1s−1 coordinates is supported on the first sss, and that the span hypothesis transfers this to the next query. The minimizer computation requires solving Akx=e1A_kx=e_1Ak​x=e1​ on the leading block and showing that the coordinates beyond kkk do not affect fkf_kfk​. A natural first attempt, choosing the hard function after seeing the procedure, proves a much weaker statement and is excluded by the quantifier order: the function is fixed first and must defeat every procedure.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Coordinates in Lean are 0-based; the definitions provide the book's 1-based coordinate coord x i and basis vector basisVec n i, and the matrix tridiag n k translates book index iii to Fin n index i−1i-1i−1. The query sequence starts at index 111. The oracle is a fixed map ggg, so (3.15) reads xt+1∈Span(g(x1),…,g(xt))x_{t+1}\in\mathrm{Span}(g(x_1),\dots,g(x_t))xt+1​∈Span(g(x1​),…,g(xt​)) with x1=0x_1=0x1​=0. In Theorem 3.14 the oracle is the gradient, given as a map with HasGradientAt everywhere; β\betaβ-smoothness is the Lipschitz bound on that map. In Theorem 3.13 the oracle is part of what is constructed, because the book's proof uses a specific "resisting" subgradient selection and the claim fails for an arbitrary one.

Committed conventions, each stated in the item's Formalization Note: the minimum over 1≤s≤t1\le s\le t1≤s≤t is the bound for every such sss, and t≥1t\ge1t≥1 is required; t≤(n−1)/2t\le(n-1)/2t≤(n−1)/2 is 2t+1≤n2t+1\le n2t+1≤n; the minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is existentially chosen together with fff (the hard function has many minimizers when 2t+1<n2t+1<n2t+1<n, and the bound is false for some of them); the minimum over a ball is the bound against every point of the ball; fk∗f_k^*fk∗​ is the real infimum, asserted to be attained.

A formalization that let the function depend on the procedure, dropped x1=0x_1=0x1​=0, or took the span over gradients at points other than the queries would state a different and weaker theorem; the statements here keep fff (and the oracle) before the universally quantified procedure.

Infrastructure needed: quadratic forms of explicit matrices on EuclideanSpace, gradients of quadratics, and span/support lemmas for EuclideanSpace.single-type vectors. Contributions of proofs for any milestone, and of the strongly convex ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ lower bound (Theorem 3.15, not included here), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
  • A. Nemirovski and D. Yudin, Problem Complexity and Method Efficiency in Optimization, Wiley, 1983.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power of Robust Solutions in Two-Stage Stochastic and Adaptive Optimization Problems 1: For Symmetric Right-Hand-Side Uncertainty, the Robust Optimum Is at Most Twice the Stochastic OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Many planning problems are made in two stages: a first decision xxx (capacity, inventory, a network design) is fixed before an uncertain demand is revealed, and a second decision yyy (recourse, routing, overtime) is taken afterwards. Two-stage stochastic optimization models the demand as random and minimizes expected cost; its second stage is a whole policy ω↦y(ω)\omega\mapsto y(\omega)ω↦y(ω), and the problem is intractable in general, especially with integer variables (Dyer and Stougie, 2006). Robust optimization instead picks one static pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) that is feasible for every possible demand and minimizes its worst-case cost; it is a single deterministic mixed-integer program and needs no knowledge of the distribution (Ben-Tal and Nemirovski, 2002; Bertsimas and Sim, 2004).

The question this mission addresses is how much is lost by solving the robust problem in place of the stochastic one. Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) show that when only the right-hand side is uncertain, the uncertainty set is symmetric and the distribution is centred at its point of symmetry, the loss is at most a factor of two, and that this factor is tight.

Setting

Fix A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​ and nonnegative costs c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. A set Ω\OmegaΩ of scenarios carries a probability measure μ\muμ, and each scenario ω\omegaω has a right-hand side b(ω)∈R+mb(\omega)\in\mathbb R^m_+b(ω)∈R+m​. The uncertainty set is Ib(Ω)={b(ω):ω∈Ω}\mathcal I_b(\Omega)=\{b(\omega):\omega\in\Omega\}Ib​(Ω)={b(ω):ω∈Ω}. First-stage variables are nonnegative, with integer values on a designated set of coordinates; second-stage variables are nonnegative reals (p2=0p_2=0p2​=0).

The stochastic problem ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b), (1.1), chooses xxx and a policy y(⋅)y(\cdot)y(⋅):

zStoch(b)=inf⁡ cTx+Eμ[dTy(ω)]s.t.Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)=\inf\ c^Tx+\mathbb E_\mu[d^Ty(\omega)]\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)\ \ \forall\omega\in\Omega .zStoch​(b)=inf cTx+Eμ​[dTy(ω)]s.t.Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.

The robust problem ΠRob(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)ΠRob​(b), (1.2), chooses one yyy for all scenarios:

zRob(b)=inf⁡ cTx+dTys.t.Ax+By≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)=\inf\ c^Tx+d^Ty\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By\ge b(\omega)\ \ \forall\omega\in\Omega .zRob​(b)=inf cTx+dTys.t.Ax+By≥b(ω)  ∀ω∈Ω.

A set PPP is symmetric (Definition 1.2) if there is u0∈Pu^0\in Pu0∈P with u0+z∈P  ⟺  u0−z∈Pu^0+z\in P\iff u^0-z\in Pu0+z∈P⟺u0−z∈P for all zzz; u0u^0u0 is its point of symmetry. Hypercubes, ellipsoids and norm balls are symmetric. A probability measure on a symmetric set is symmetric (Definition 1.4) if it gives a set and its reflection {2u0−x}\{2u^0-x\}{2u0−x} the same mass.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (p. 10)

If Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is symmetric with point of symmetry b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0), p2=0p_2=0p2​=0, and μ\muμ satisfies

Eμ[b(ω)] ≥ b(ω0)(2.1)\mathbb E_\mu[b(\omega)]\ \ge\ b(\omega^0)\qquad(2.1)Eμ​[b(ω)] ≥ b(ω0)(2.1)

then

zRob(b) ≤ 2⋅zStoch(b).z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\ \le\ 2\cdot z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b).zRob​(b) ≤ 2⋅zStoch​(b).

Milestones on the way

  • Lemma 2.2 (p. 12): the coordinatewise bounding box HHH of a symmetric set SSS is the smallest hypercube containing SSS.
  • Lemma 2.3 (p. 12): the centre x0x^0x0 of HHH is the point of symmetry of SSS, and x≤2x0x\le 2x^0x≤2x0 on SSS when S⊆R+nS\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+S⊆R+n​.
  • Eqs. (2.9)–(2.10) (p. 13): if (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) covers b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0) then (2x,2y)(2x,2y)(2x,2y) covers every b(ω)b(\omega)b(ω), so it is robust feasible.
  • p. 14 display: under (2.1), the mean second-stage decision Eμ[y(ω)]\mathbb E_\mu[y(\omega)]Eμ​[y(ω)] covers b(ω0)b(\omega^0)b(ω0).
  • Lemma 2.1 (p. 11): a symmetric probability measure has mean u0u^0u0, so it satisfies (2.1).
  • Theorem 2.7 (p. 21): the same bound zRob(b)≤2 zStoch(b)z_{\mathrm{Rob}}(b)\le 2\,z_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)zRob​(b)≤2zStoch​(b) when Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is convex and positive (contained in a symmetric subset of R+m\mathbb R^m_+R+m​ whose centre lies in Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω)).

Significance

The result. The robust problem is one mixed-integer program, independent of μ\muμ; the stochastic problem optimizes over policies and requires the distribution. Theorem 2.1 says that under symmetry the static robust solution (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) used in every scenario is a 2-approximation of the optimal expected cost, for every centred distribution at once. The companion results of the paper show the hypotheses matter: the bound is tight for symmetric sets, the gap is unbounded (at least n+1n+1n+1) on the non-symmetric simplex (Theorem 2.6), and unbounded when costs are uncertain as well (Theorem 3.1). The theorem also underlies later work on the power of static and affine policies in adaptive optimization (Bertsimas and Goyal, 2012).

Formalizing it. The theorem and its proof are published; nothing in this mission is open mathematics. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a reusable Lean model of two-stage stochastic and robust mixed-integer covering problems with arbitrary scenario spaces, extended-real optimal values and genuine expectations, together with the elementary geometry of point-symmetric sets. The same objects are used by the other missions of this series (the simplex and cost-uncertainty gaps, and the adaptability gap).

Difficulty

Each step of the published argument is short; the difficulty is in stating it at the right generality. The paper begins "consider an optimal solution" of ΠStoch(b)\Pi_{\mathrm{Stoch}}(b)ΠStoch​(b); optimal policies need not exist for an arbitrary scenario space, so the statement is about infima and every step must work for an arbitrary feasible pair. Passing from "Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω)Ax+By(\omega)\ge b(\omega)Ax+By(ω)≥b(ω) for all ω\omegaω" to "Ax+B Eμ[y]≥Eμ[b]Ax+B\,\mathbb E_\mu[y]\ge\mathbb E_\mu[b]Ax+BEμ​[y]≥Eμ​[b]" needs integrability of the policy and of bbb and linearity of the Bochner integral through a matrix. The bound b(ω)≤2b(ω0)b(\omega)\le 2b(\omega^0)b(ω)≤2b(ω0) uses symmetry together with nonnegativity of the uncertainty set; symmetry alone does not give it. Integrality of the second stage breaks the argument, since Eμ[y(ω)]\mathbb E_\mu[y(\omega)]Eμ​[y(ω)] need not be integral.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are Fin k → ℝ with the componentwise order, products A *ᵥ x and inner products c ⬝ᵥ x. The mixed-integer domain is "nonnegative with integer values on a set III of coordinates", which is the paper's R+n−p×Z+p\mathbb R^{n-p}_+\times\mathbb Z^p_+R+n−p​×Z+p​ up to relabelling.
  • Ω\OmegaΩ is an arbitrary measurable space with a probability measure; Ib(Ω)\mathcal I_b(\Omega)Ib​(Ω) is Set.range b. Constraints hold for every scenario, not almost surely.
  • Second-stage policies are μ\muμ-integrable, and bbb is μ\muμ-integrable in every statement that uses (2.1). Without these, Lean's integral of a non-integrable function is 000 and (2.1) would degenerate.
  • zStochz_{\mathrm{Stoch}}zStoch​ and zRobz_{\mathrm{Rob}}zRob​ are infima in EReal, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when infeasible; no attainment is assumed. A real-valued infimum would return 000 on an infeasible robust problem and make the goal trivial; that formalization is ruled out.
  • The bounding box of (2.5)–(2.7) uses suprema and infima, with boundedness assumed where needed.
  • Corrections to the page: Lemma 2.3's inequality x≤2x0x\le 2x^0x≤2x0 is stated under S⊆R+nS\subseteq\mathbb R^n_+S⊆R+n​, which its proof uses and which holds in every application; Lemma 2.1 assumes the measure has a mean; Theorem 2.7 carries the standing assumption p2=0p_2=0p2​=0 of §2.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and the goal, and general lemmas on point-symmetric sets and on interchanging Bochner integrals with matrix–vector products, both reusable outside this mission.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power of robust solutions in two-stage stochastic and adaptive optimization problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0440 (cited from the authors' manuscript, MIT DSpace)
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust optimization — methodology and applications, Mathematical Programming 92, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101070100286
  • D. Bertsimas, M. Sim, The price of robustness, Operations Research 52(1), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0065
  • M. Dyer, L. Stougie, Computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, Mathematical Programming 106, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0578-0
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Robust Optimization Approach to Inventory Theory: The Optimal Robust Policy Is the Optimal Nominal Policy for an Explicit Modified Demand, at Extra Cost (2ph/(p+h))·ΣA_kResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical inventory theory chooses order quantities against a probability distribution of demand. The resulting dynamic programs are optimal in expectation but need the distribution, and they become intractable once several installations, capacities or fixed costs interact. Robust optimization replaces the distribution by an uncertainty set and asks for the order sequence whose worst-case cost over that set is smallest. Bertsimas and Thiele (Operations Research 54(1), 2006) applied the budget-of-uncertainty approach of Bertsimas and Sim (The Price of Robustness, Operations Research 52(1), 2004) to finite-horizon inventory control. Their main structural result says that robustness does not destroy the structure of the classical problem. The robust problem is a deterministic (nominal) inventory problem with an explicitly modified demand, and the price of robustness is an explicit constant.

Setting

A single item is ordered at a single installation over periods k=0,…,T−1k = 0, \dots, T-1k=0,…,T−1. The stock at the beginning of the horizon is x0x_0x0​. Orders uk≥0u_k \ge 0uk​≥0 arrive immediately, demand wkw_kwk​ is subtracted, and excess demand is backlogged, so the stock at the end of period kkk is

xk+1=x0+∑i=0k(ui−wi).x_{k+1} = x_0 + \sum_{i=0}^{k} (u_i - w_i).xk+1​=x0​+i=0∑k​(ui​−wi​).

The demand of period kkk is uncertain: wk=wˉk+w^kzkw_k = \bar w_k + \hat w_k z_kwk​=wˉk​+w^k​zk​ with a nominal demand wˉk\bar w_kwˉk​, a maximal deviation w^k≥0\hat w_k \ge 0w^k​≥0 and a scaled deviation zk∈[−1,1]z_k \in [-1, 1]zk​∈[−1,1]. A budget of uncertainty Γk\Gamma_kΓk​ limits the total scaled deviation up to period kkk. The budgets satisfy 0≤Γ00 \le \Gamma_00≤Γ0​ and Γk≤Γk+1≤Γk+1\Gamma_k \le \Gamma_{k+1} \le \Gamma_k + 1Γk​≤Γk+1​≤Γk​+1.

Each period costs C(uk)+R(xk+1)C(u_k) + R(x_{k+1})C(uk​)+R(xk+1​). The purchasing cost is C(u)=K+cuC(u) = K + cuC(u)=K+cu for u>0u > 0u>0 and C(0)=0C(0) = 0C(0)=0, with c>0c > 0c>0 and K≥0K \ge 0K≥0. The holding/shortage cost is R(x)=max⁡(hx,−px)R(x) = \max(hx, -px)R(x)=max(hx,−px), with h≥0h \ge 0h≥0 and p>cp > cp>c. The nominal problem with demand www minimizes ∑k<T(C(uk)+R(xk+1))\sum_{k<T} (C(u_k) + R(x_{k+1}))∑k<T​(C(uk​)+R(xk+1​)) over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0 for a fixed demand sequence www.

For each kkk, AkA_kAk​ is the optimal value of the linear program

Ak=max⁡{∑i=0kw^izi  :  ∑i=0kzi≤Γk, 0≤zi≤1}(13)A_k = \max\Big\{\sum_{i=0}^{k} \hat w_i z_i \;:\; \sum_{i=0}^{k} z_i \le \Gamma_k,\ 0 \le z_i \le 1\Big\} \qquad (13)Ak​=max{i=0∑k​w^i​zi​:i=0∑k​zi​≤Γk​, 0≤zi​≤1}(13)

It is the worst-case deviation of the cumulative demand up to kkk from its nominal value, with A−1=0A_{-1} = 0A−1​=0. Write xˉk+1=x0+∑i≤k(ui−wˉi)\bar x_{k+1} = x_0 + \sum_{i\le k}(u_i - \bar w_i)xˉk+1​=x0​+∑i≤k​(ui​−wˉi​) for the nominal stock. The robust formulation (14) minimizes ∑k<T(C(uk)+yk)\sum_{k<T} (C(u_k) + y_k)∑k<T​(C(uk​)+yk​) over (u,y,q,r)(u, y, q, r)(u,y,q,r) subject to the following constraints for every k<Tk < Tk<T:

  • uk≥0u_k \ge 0uk​≥0, qk≥0q_k \ge 0qk​≥0, and rik≥0r_{ik} \ge 0rik​≥0, qk+rik≥w^iq_k + r_{ik} \ge \hat w_iqk​+rik​≥w^i​ for i≤ki \le ki≤k;
  • yk≥h(xˉk+1+qkΓk+∑i≤krik)y_k \ge h(\bar x_{k+1} + q_k\Gamma_k + \sum_{i\le k} r_{ik})yk​≥h(xˉk+1​+qk​Γk​+∑i≤k​rik​);
  • yk≥p(−xˉk+1+qkΓk+∑i≤krik)y_k \ge p(-\bar x_{k+1} + q_k\Gamma_k + \sum_{i\le k} r_{ik})yk​≥p(−xˉk+1​+qk​Γk​+∑i≤k​rik​).

The variables q,rq, rq,r are the dual of (13). Formulation (14) is equivalent to requiring the holding and shortage constraints of period kkk for every demand whose scaled deviations satisfy ∣zi∣≤1|z_i| \le 1∣zi​∣≤1 and ∑i≤k∣zi∣≤Γk\sum_{i \le k}|z_i| \le \Gamma_k∑i≤k​∣zi​∣≤Γk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (a), (b), (d)

Let the modified demand be

wk′=wˉk+p−hp+h (Ak−Ak−1).(20)w'_k = \bar w_k + \frac{p-h}{p+h}\,(A_k - A_{k-1}). \qquad (20)wk′​=wˉk​+p+hp−h​(Ak​−Ak−1​).(20)

Write Nw′(u)N_{w'}(u)Nw′​(u) for the nominal cost of uuu under demand w′w'w′. Then:

  1. For every u≥0u \ge 0u≥0, the minimum of the objective of (14) over the feasible (y,q,r)(y, q, r)(y,q,r) is attained and equals
Nw′(u)+2php+h∑k=0T−1Ak.N_{w'}(u) + \frac{2ph}{p+h}\sum_{k=0}^{T-1} A_k.Nw′​(u)+p+h2ph​k=0∑T−1​Ak​.
  1. uuu is the order part of an optimal solution of (14) if and only if uuu is optimal for the nominal problem with demand w′w'w′.
  2. The optimal cost of (14) is the optimal nominal cost under w′w'w′ plus 2php+h∑kAk\frac{2ph}{p+h}\sum_k A_kp+h2ph​∑k​Ak​.
  3. If K=0K = 0K=0 and wk′≥0w'_k \ge 0wk′​≥0, the order-up-to policy with levels Sk=wk′S_k = w'_kSk​=wk′​ is robust-optimal.

Milestones

The milestones are the steps of the paper's proof, in order:

  • LP (13) and its dual are attained with the common value AkA_kAk​.
  • The constraints of (14) are the robust counterpart of the kkk-th holding/shortage pair (10)–(11).
  • For fixed orders, the value of (14) is the sum (21).
  • The modified stock (22) satisfies xk+1′=xˉk+1−p−hp+hAkx'_{k+1} = \bar x_{k+1} - \frac{p-h}{p+h}A_kxk+1′​=xˉk+1​−p+hp−h​Ak​.
  • The max identity (23): max⁡(h(xˉ+A),p(−xˉ+A))=max⁡(hx′,−px′)+2php+hA\max(h(\bar x+A), p(-\bar x+A)) = \max(hx', -px') + \frac{2ph}{p+h}Amax(h(xˉ+A),p(−xˉ+A))=max(hx′,−px′)+p+h2ph​A.
  • Lemma 3.1(b): for nonnegative demand, the nominal problem without fixed cost is solved by ordering up to Sk=wkS_k = w_kSk​=wk​.
  • Remark 1: Ak−1≤AkA_{k-1} \le A_kAk−1​≤Ak​, so wk′≥wˉkw'_k \ge \bar w_kwk′​≥wˉk​ when p≥hp \ge hp≥h.
  • Remark 3: under i.i.d. demand, Ak=w^ΓkA_k = \hat w\Gamma_kAk​=w^Γk​, which gives the closed-form thresholds.

Significance

The theorem reduces robust inventory control to nominal inventory control. Every structural fact known for the deterministic problem then transfers to the robust one. These include the optimality of base-stock policies without fixed cost and the threshold structure with a fixed cost. The robust base-stock levels are explicit: they shift the nominal levels by p−hp+h(Ak−Ak−1)\frac{p-h}{p+h}(A_k - A_{k-1})p+hp−h​(Ak​−Ak−1​), upward when shortage is more expensive than holding. The extra cost 2php+h∑kAk\frac{2ph}{p+h}\sum_k A_kp+h2ph​∑k​Ak​ quantifies the price of protection as a function of the budgets. The paper uses the same reduction for capacitated orders (Theorem 3.3) and for supply networks (§4).

The result has been proved since 2006, and no machine-checked proof of it, or of any budgeted robust counterpart, is known to exist. This mission provides several formalizations for reuse:

  • the budgeted robust counterpart of a pair of piecewise-linear constraints;
  • the duality of the fractional knapsack LP (13);
  • the optimality of base-stock orders for a deterministic backlogged inventory problem.

Difficulty

The algebraic core, identity (23), is elementary. The work is in the reductions around it. The first is that (14) really is the worst case of (10)–(11): this needs strong duality for (13), together with attainment on both sides, and the observation that the minimizing and maximizing deviations of a constraint pair differ. The second is that the minimum of (14) over the auxiliary variables, for fixed orders, is (21). This requires the dual optimum to be attained with the value of (13), and h,p≥0h, p \ge 0h,p≥0 so that the cost is monotone in AkA_kAk​. The third is the base-stock part, which needs Lemma 3.1(b), a global optimality statement for a TTT-period problem with backlogging. The paper proves that lemma by an explicit dual certificate. An argument through first-order conditions in each period is not enough, because orders in one period affect every later stock level.

Formalization scope

All data are real numbers and sequences are ℕ → ℝ; only indices k<Tk < Tk<T matter. stock w u k denotes xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​, the stock at the end of period kkk. The standing assumptions of §3.1 are fields of the model:

  • c>0c > 0c>0, K≥0K \ge 0K≥0, h≥0h \ge 0h≥0, p>cp > cp>c;
  • w^k≥0\hat w_k \ge 0w^k​≥0;
  • Γ0≥0\Gamma_0 \ge 0Γ0​≥0 and Γk≤Γk+1≤Γk+1\Gamma_k \le \Gamma_{k+1} \le \Gamma_k + 1Γk​≤Γk+1​≤Γk​+1.

The conventions and corrections are:

  • Fixed cost. The paper writes it with binary variables and a big-MMM constraint. Here it is the indicator C(uk)C(u_k)C(uk​) in the objective, as in the paper's own (21).
  • "Optimal". It always means minimality over all feasible points.
  • The policy. It is the order sequence chosen at time 0.
  • AkA_kAk​. It is the value of (13), as in Remark 1 after the theorem, not "the optimal q∗,r∗q^*, r^*q∗,r∗ of (14)", which need not be unique.
  • The robust formulation. (14) is formalized as printed: the kkk-th constraint pair is protected by the budget Γk\Gamma_kΓk​ alone, not by the intersection of all budgets up to kkk.
  • Sign slip. The page's xk+1=xˉk+1+∑w^izix_{k+1} = \bar x_{k+1} + \sum \hat w_i z_ixk+1​=xˉk+1​+∑w^i​zi​ is a sign slip for xˉk+1−∑w^izi\bar x_{k+1} - \sum \hat w_i z_ixˉk+1​−∑w^i​zi​. The formal statements use the correct sign; the result is unaffected because the deviation set is symmetric.
  • Part (b). It is stated under wk′≥0w'_k \ge 0wk′​≥0. As printed it fails when p<hp < hp<h makes w′w'w′ negative, for example T=2T = 2T=2, wˉ=w^=(10,0)\bar w = \hat w = (10, 0)wˉ=w^=(10,0), Γ=(0,1)\Gamma = (0, 1)Γ=(0,1), c=1c = 1c=1, h=4h = 4h=4, p=2p = 2p=2, x0=0x_0 = 0x0​=0. Lemma 3.1(b) carries the matching hypothesis of nonnegative demand.
  • Remark 3. It adds Γ0≤1\Gamma_0 \le 1Γ0​≤1.
  • Remark 1. Its inequalities are weak.
  • Not stated. The (s, S) clause of (a) and part (c) are excluded. They rest on a stochastic theorem cited from Bertsekas (1995) and on thresholds stated through the optimal ordering times.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the robust cost is formulation (14) with its variables y,q,ry, q, ry,q,r, and AkA_kAk​ is the value of LP (13). Neither is the closed-form objective (21) nor an arbitrary sequence. Contributions are welcome on the LP duality of (13) (a fractional knapsack), on the robust counterpart milestone, and on Lemma 3.1(b), each of which is independent of the others.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, A. Thiele, A Robust Optimization Approach to Inventory Theory, Operations Research 54(1):150–168, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0238
  • D. Bertsimas, M. Sim, The Price of Robustness, Operations Research 52(1):35–53, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0065
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Operations Research Letters 25(1):1–13, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(99)00016-4
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control, Vol. 1, Athena Scientific, 1995.
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VII: Conditional Gradient Descent (Frank–Wolfe) with γ_s = 2/(s + 1) Has Rate 2βR²/(t + 1) in Any NormTextbook

Motivation

Many constrained optimization problems in machine learning and statistics have a feasible set X\mathcal XX over which a linear function is cheap to minimize but a Euclidean projection is expensive: the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-ball, the simplex, the nuclear-norm ball, the convex hull of a combinatorial family. Projected gradient descent needs a projection at every step. Conditional gradient descent, introduced by Frank and Wolfe in 1956 for quadratic programming, replaces the projection by a call to a linear minimization oracle over X\mathcal XX, and its iterates are convex combinations of oracle outputs, which makes them sparse when X\mathcal XX is a polytope.

This mission is the seventh of a series formalizing S. Bubeck's monograph Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning, 2015, arXiv:1405.4980v2). It covers Section 3.3, whose main result, Theorem 3.8, is the O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) rate of the method in the form given by Jaggi (2013), going back to Dunn and Harshbarger (1978).

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. For a linear form ggg on EEE, written v↦g⊤vv\mapsto g^\top vv↦g⊤v, the dual norm is ∥g∥∗=sup⁡∥v∥≤1g⊤v\|g\|_*=\sup_{\|v\|\le1}g^\top v∥g∥∗​=sup∥v∥≤1​g⊤v. Let X⊆E\mathcal X\subseteq EX⊆E be nonempty, compact and convex, with diameter R=sup⁡x,y∈X∥x−y∥R=\sup_{x,y\in\mathcal X}\|x-y\|R=supx,y∈X​∥x−y∥.

Let f:E→Rf:E\to\mathbb Rf:E→R be differentiable with gradient ∇f(x)\nabla f(x)∇f(x), a linear form on EEE. For β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, fff is β-smooth with respect to ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ on X\mathcal XX if

∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥∗≤β∥x−y∥(x,y∈X).\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|_*\le\beta\|x-y\|\qquad(x,y\in\mathcal X).∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥∗​≤β∥x−y∥(x,y∈X).

A point x∗∈Xx^*\in\mathcal Xx∗∈X with f(x∗)=min⁡x∈Xf(x)f(x^*)=\min_{x\in\mathcal X}f(x)f(x∗)=minx∈X​f(x) is fixed throughout, and δt=f(xt)−f(x∗)\delta_t=f(x_t)-f(x^*)δt​=f(xt​)−f(x∗).

Given step sizes (γs)s≥1(\gamma_s)_{s\ge1}(γs​)s≥1​, a run of conditional gradient descent is a pair of sequences with x1∈Xx_1\in\mathcal Xx1​∈X and, for every t≥1t\ge1t≥1,

yt∈argmin⁡y∈X∇f(xt)⊤y(3.8),xt+1=(1−γt)xt+γtyt(3.9).y_t\in\operatorname*{argmin}_{y\in\mathcal X}\nabla f(x_t)^\top y\quad(3.8),\qquad x_{t+1}=(1-\gamma_t)x_t+\gamma_ty_t\quad(3.9).yt​∈y∈Xargmin​∇f(xt​)⊤y(3.8),xt+1​=(1−γt​)xt​+γt​yt​(3.9).

The minimizer yty_tyt​ need not be unique; any choice is allowed.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.8 (p. 272)

If fff is convex and β\betaβ-smooth with respect to ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and γs=2s+1\gamma_s=\frac{2}{s+1}γs​=s+12​ for s≥1s\ge1s≥1, then every run satisfies, for every t≥2t\ge2t≥2,

f(xt)−f(x∗)≤2βR2t+1.f(x_t)-f(x^*)\le\frac{2\beta R^2}{t+1}.f(xt​)−f(x∗)≤t+12βR2​.

Milestones

  1. Inequality (3.4) in an arbitrary norm (p. 267, used on p. 272): for x,y∈Xx,y\in\mathcal Xx,y∈X, 0≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤β2∥x−y∥20\le f(x)-f(y)-\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)\le\frac{\beta}{2}\|x-y\|^20≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤2β​∥x−y∥2.
  2. The one-step recursion (pp. 272–273): for any run with γs∈[0,1]\gamma_s\in[0,1]γs​∈[0,1],
δs+1≤(1−γs)δs+β2γs2R2.\delta_{s+1}\le(1-\gamma_s)\delta_s+\frac{\beta}{2}\gamma_s^2R^2 .δs+1​≤(1−γs​)δs​+2β​γs2​R2.
  1. Initialization (p. 273): if γ1=1\gamma_1=1γ1​=1, then δ2≤β2R2\delta_2\le\frac{\beta}{2}R^2δ2​≤2β​R2.
  2. The induction (p. 273): a real sequence with δ2≤β2R2\delta_2\le\frac{\beta}{2}R^2δ2​≤2β​R2 and the recursion of milestone 2 with γs=2s+1\gamma_s=\frac{2}{s+1}γs​=s+12​ for s≥2s\ge2s≥2 satisfies δt≤2βR2t+1\delta_t\le\frac{2\beta R^2}{t+1}δt​≤t+12βR2​ for t≥2t\ge2t≥2.

Significance

Theorem 3.8 is the basic guarantee for projection-free first-order optimization. Its rate does not depend on the dimension, and it depends on the geometry only through the product βR2\beta R^2βR2, both measured in the same norm, which may be chosen to fit X\mathcal XX: for the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-ball, smoothness in ∥⋅∥1\|\cdot\|_1∥⋅∥1​ with dual norm ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ gives much better constants than the Euclidean analysis. The book applies it this way to a LASSO-type problem (Section 3.3, pp. 274–276), and the same bound underlies the sparse-approximation corollary on the simplex (p. 273) and the many later variants of the method (away steps, stochastic and online conditional gradient).

The result is classical and proved in the book. What this mission adds is a machine-checked statement and proof in an arbitrary finite-dimensional normed space, with the dual norm as the operator norm on linear forms, and a reusable encoding of norm-smoothness and of conditional gradient runs. On Prove2Me a related result is already proved: Lan's Theorem 7.1 (First-order and Stochastic Optimization Methods), which bounds f(yk)−f∗f(y_k)-f^*f(yk​)−f∗ by 2Lk(k+1)∑i≤k∥xi−yi−1∥2\frac{2L}{k(k+1)}\sum_{i\le k}\|x_i-y_{i-1}\|^2k(k+1)2L​∑i≤k​∥xi​−yi−1​∥2 with a different indexing; after the diameter bound it yields 2βR2/t2\beta R^2/t2βR2/t at Bubeck's iterate xtx_txt​, which is weaker than Theorem 3.8 by one step.

Difficulty

The difficulty is in the bookkeeping of norms and indices, not in a deep idea. Inequality (3.4) is proved in the book only for the Euclidean norm, where ∇f(x)∈Rn\nabla f(x)\in\mathbb R^n∇f(x)∈Rn and the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality is used; in a general norm it needs the pairing between a linear form and a vector and the bound ∣g⊤v∣≤∥g∥∗∥v∥|g^\top v|\le\|g\|_*\|v\|∣g⊤v∣≤∥g∥∗​∥v∥. The rate 2βR2/(t+1)2\beta R^2/(t+1)2βR2/(t+1) is attained only by starting the induction at t=2t=2t=2, where the step γ1=1\gamma_1=1γ1​=1 erases the dependence on the starting point; at t=1t=1t=1 the bound can fail, since δ1\delta_1δ1​ is arbitrary. A first attempt that runs the induction from t=1t=1t=1 with an arbitrary δ1\delta_1δ1​ does not give the stated constant.

Formalization scope

EEE is a type with [NormedAddCommGroup E] [NormedSpace ℝ E] [FiniteDimensional ℝ E]; nothing is specialised to the Euclidean norm. The gradient is an explicit derivative map f' : E → (E →L[ℝ] ℝ) with HasFDerivAt f (f' x) x for every x; ∇f(x)⊤v\nabla f(x)^\top v∇f(x)⊤v is f' x v, and ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​ is the operator norm, which equals sup⁡∥v∥≤1g⊤v\sup_{\|v\|\le1}g^\top vsup∥v∥≤1​g⊤v. RRR is Metric.diam X, which equals the supremum of ∥x−y∥\|x-y\|∥x−y∥ over X\mathcal XX because X\mathcal XX is compact. Sequences are indexed by ℕ with the first iterate at index 1.

Committed conventions: X\mathcal XX compact, convex and containing x∗x^*x∗ (hence nonempty); convexity of fff and the Lipschitz bound on the gradient are assumed on X\mathcal XX only, which is weaker than the book's global assumptions; β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0; the existence of the minimizer x∗x^*x∗ is the book's standing assumption (p. 242); the conclusion is stated for t≥2t\ge2t≥2, as in the book. Runs are predicates: yty_tyt​ is any minimizer of the linear form over X\mathcal XX and yt∈Xy_t\in\mathcal Xyt​∈X is required, so the goal quantifies over every run with γs=2/(s+1)\gamma_s=2/(s+1)γs​=2/(s+1). A formalization in which yty_tyt​ need not lie in X\mathcal XX, or in which smoothness is assumed only along the iterates, states a different theorem and is excluded.

A complete development needs the descent inequality (3.4) for Fréchet derivatives in a normed space (reusable for every smooth method in the series and beyond), the fact that the iterates stay in X\mathcal XX, and a scalar induction. Proofs of the milestones are welcome independently; milestone 4 is a statement about real sequences only.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.4980
  • M. Frank and P. Wolfe, An algorithm for quadratic programming, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3(1–2):95–110, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030109
  • J. C. Dunn and S. Harshbarger, Conditional gradient algorithms with open loop step size rules, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 62(2):432–444, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(78)90137-3
  • M. Jaggi, Revisiting Frank–Wolfe: projection-free sparse convex optimization, Proceedings of ICML 2013, PMLR 28(1):427–435. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v28/jaggi13.html
  • G. Lan, First-order and Stochastic Optimization Methods for Machine Learning, Springer, 2020, Theorem 7.1. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-39568-1
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity VI: Gradient Descent with η = 2/(α + β) on a β-Smooth α-Strongly Convex Function Has Rate (β/2)exp(−4t/(κ + 1))‖x₁ − x*‖²Textbook

Motivation

Gradient descent is a basic method for minimizing a differentiable function when evaluating its gradient is practical but solving the optimization problem directly is not. The rate at which its iterates approach an optimizer depends on the assumptions about the function. For a convex function with a Lipschitz gradient, the value error decreases at a sublinear rate. Adding strong convexity changes the behavior: the distance from the optimizer contracts at each step, giving an exponential bound on the value error. This section of Bubeck's monograph identifies a fixed step size that uses both the smoothness and curvature constants and gives the corresponding rate.

The result matters when a high-accuracy answer is needed. A sublinear bound makes each extra digit progressively more expensive; an exponential bound says that a fixed number of additional gradient evaluations reduces the error by a fixed factor. The theorem is a textbook result, already proved mathematically. This mission asks for its precise machine-checked statement and the source's supporting inequalities, rather than for a new optimization method.

Setting

Work in Euclidean space Rn\mathbb R^nRn with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, equipped with its usual inner product and norm. A differentiable function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R has gradient g(x)=∇f(x)g(x)=\nabla f(x)g(x)=∇f(x). It is β\betaβ-smooth when its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz: ∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥\|g(x)-g(y)\|\le\beta\|x-y\|∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥ for every x,yx,yx,y. It is α\alphaα-strongly convex when, for every x,yx,yx,y,

f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+α2∥y−x∥2.f(y)\ge f(x)+\langle g(x),y-x\rangle+\frac\alpha2\|y-x\|^2.f(y)≥f(x)+⟨g(x),y−x⟩+2α​∥y−x∥2.

The first condition limits how rapidly the gradient changes. The second gives a quadratic lower bound on the function around any point. Here α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0. In positive dimension, the two conditions together entail β≥α\beta\ge\alphaβ≥α, so the condition number κ=β/α\kappa=\beta/\alphaκ=β/α is at least one. The case α=β\alpha=\betaα=β remains part of the target.

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a global minimizer when f(x∗)≤f(y)f(x^*)\le f(y)f(x∗)≤f(y) for every yyy. The book assumes such a point exists as a standing convention. A gradient descent run is a sequence (xt)t≥1(x_t)_{t\ge1}(xt​)t≥1​ satisfying xt+1=xt−ηg(xt)x_{t+1}=x_t-\eta g(x_t)xt+1​=xt​−ηg(xt​) at each positive index. Its first iterate x1x_1x1​ is arbitrary. The step size in this mission is fixed at η=2/(α+β)\eta=2/(\alpha+\beta)η=2/(α+β), rather than chosen by line search or adapted along the run.

Formalization targets

The central target is Theorem 3.12 of Bubeck, p. 279. For every integer t≥0t\ge0t≥0, the gradient descent run satisfies

f(xt+1)−f(x∗)≤β2exp⁡ ⁣(−4tκ+1)∥x1−x∗∥2.f(x_{t+1})-f(x^*)\le \frac\beta2\exp\!\left(-\frac{4t}{\kappa+1}\right)\|x_1-x^*\|^2.f(xt+1​)−f(x∗)≤2β​exp(−κ+14t​)∥x1​−x∗∥2.

At t=0t=0t=0 this is a smoothness bound on the initial value gap. For subsequent iterations it gives a linear convergence rate with the explicit exponential factor stated in the book. No initial-radius bound or bounded domain is imposed: the actual squared distance ∥x1−x∗∥2\|x_1-x^*\|^2∥x1​−x∗∥2 appears in the conclusion.

The milestones trace the mathematical claims stated in the source. Equation (3.6) is the co-coercivity inequality for gradients of convex smooth functions. The proof of Lemma 3.11 introduces ϕ(z)=f(z)−(α/2)∥z∥2\phi(z)=f(z)-(\alpha/2)\|z\|^2ϕ(z)=f(z)−(α/2)∥z∥2, and identifies it as convex and (β−α)(\beta-\alpha)(β−α)-smooth. Lemma 3.11 combines curvature and smoothness into a sharper inequality for two gradients. The proof of Theorem 3.12 then gives a value-gap bound, a one-step distance contraction, and its iterated exponential form. These statements are separately useful: the co-coercivity and contraction bounds can be reused in analyses of related first-order methods.

Significance

The theorem states a complete guarantee for the algorithm: an explicit rule, the hypotheses on the objective, and a bound valid for every iteration count. It makes the role of κ\kappaκ visible. When κ\kappaκ is close to one, the contraction is strong; when the smoothness constant is much larger than the curvature constant, more iterations are needed for the same error reduction. The stated dependence supports comparisons with projected and accelerated gradient methods elsewhere in the same monograph.

Formalizing the result requires a common interface for actual gradients, smoothness, strong convexity, and algorithm runs. The strong-convexity predicate is an existing published definition, while the local smoothness and run definitions use Bubeck's conventions. Once these interfaces and the inequalities are proved, later missions can use the resulting declarations to compare rates without translating between informal meanings of “smooth” or changing the iterate index. The source provides a mathematical proof; these draft Lean theorems carry sorry and do not yet constitute machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

The main issue is getting the sharp contraction factor from two assumptions that control different parts of the gradient step. A direct Lipschitz estimate on the update map does not by itself express the mixed inner-product term with the constants needed for the stated factor. Lemma 3.11 is the source's precise bridge between the gradient difference, the point displacement, and their inner product. The case α=β\alpha=\betaα=β also needs to remain valid: a proof route that divides by β−α\beta-\alphaβ−α cannot cover that boundary by the same calculation.

The last display in the proof of Theorem 3.12 joins a one-step inequality involving xtx_txt​ to an exponential inequality involving x1x_1x1​. The latter is the cumulative statement after ttt steps. Keeping these as separate milestones makes each quantified claim explicit while preserving the theorem's bound.

Formalization scope

Lean represents Rn\mathbb R^nRn as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with n>0n>0n>0. The gradient is an explicit map ggg required to be the actual gradient of fff at every point. Smoothness is the gradient Lipschitz condition, not a quadratic upper bound used as a definition. Strong convexity uses the published OnlineConvexOpt.ConvexBasics.StronglyConvexOn predicate on the whole space; its formula is the book's (3.13). Iterates are indexed from one, and index zero imposes no condition. The norm, inner product, constants, and real exponential follow the printed formulas.

The added explicit conditions are n>0n>0n>0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, and β>0\beta>0β>0 where Equation (3.6) divides by β\betaβ. Positive dimension excludes a degenerate space where curvature imposes no restriction on smoothness. The positivity of α\alphaα makes κ\kappaκ meaningful; the source treats it as a positive strong-convexity parameter. The minimizer hypothesis is the book's standing convention. There is no assumption that g(x∗)=0g(x^*)=0g(x∗)=0: that property follows from global minimality and differentiability. A gradient map unrelated to fff would trivialize the model, so the smoothness definition includes the gradient identity.

The local development needs Euclidean inner-product identities, convexity, differentiability, Lipschitz gradient bounds, and real exponential estimates. The auxiliary function and the two co-coercivity inequalities are reusable outside this chapter. Contributions should prove the exact milestone statements and the final theorem, including t=0t=0t=0 and α=β\alpha=\betaα=β, without weakening constants or substituting another gradient descent step.

Selected references

  • Sébastien Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–358, 2015. arXiv:1405.4980v2; DOI:10.1561/2200000050.
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

An Analysis of Stochastic Shortest Path Problems: If Every Improper Policy Has Infinite Cost, the Optimal Cost Is the Unique Fixed Point of Bellman's Operator and Value Iteration Converges to ItResearch Paper

Motivation

A shortest path problem asks how to reach a destination at minimum cost. In a stochastic shortest path problem, a decision at a state selects a probability distribution over successor states, so both the route and its total cost are random. Costs may have either sign. This makes the problem relevant to finite-state control models where rewards and expenses occur before eventual termination. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis analyze this setting without requiring all one-stage costs to be nonnegative or all to be nonpositive. Their condition instead rules out an improper stationary policy whose costs stay finite from every initial state. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 580–583.

Earlier treatments established Bellman-equation and algorithmic conclusions under positive or nonnegative costs. The 1991 paper traces the finite-control development from Eaton and Zadeh and the compact-control extension from Kushner, then removes the sign restriction while retaining finite state space. It also explains why the Bellman mapping need not contract when an improper policy is available. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 581, 585. A separate, proved Prove2Me theorem from Bertsekas's textbook treats the special case in which every policy is proper and controls are finite; the result here permits improper policies and compact control spaces.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 states. State 111 is the destination. At state iii, a control u∈U(i)u\in U(i)u∈U(i) incurs a real cost ci(u)c_i(u)ci​(u) and moves the process to state jjj with probability pij(u)p_{ij}(u)pij​(u). A selector μ\muμ chooses one control μ(i)\mu(i)μ(i) at every state. A policy π=(μ0,μ1,…)\pi=(\mu_0,\mu_1,\ldots)π=(μ0​,μ1​,…) may change selectors over time; a stationary policy repeats one selector. The matrix P(μ)P(\mu)P(μ) has entries pij(μ(i))p_{ij}(\mu(i))pij​(μ(i)), and c(μ)c(\mu)c(μ) is the vector of one-stage costs. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), p. 582.

The cost vector x(π)x(\pi)x(π) is the coordinatewise limit inferior of expected partial costs, including the possibility of infinite values. The optimal cost xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ is the infimum of xi(π)x_i(\pi)xi​(π) over all policies, including nonstationary ones. Optimality of a policy means it attains that infimum from every initial state. The fixed-selector operator is Tμ(x)=c(μ)+P(μ)xT_\mu(x)=c(\mu)+P(\mu)xTμ​(x)=c(μ)+P(μ)x; the Bellman operator TTT takes the coordinatewise infimum of these vectors over selectors. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 582–583, equations (2)–(6).

A stationary policy is proper when its probability of reaching state 111 tends to one from every starting state. Assumption 1 says state 111 is absorbing and cost-free, at least one proper stationary policy exists, and every improper stationary policy has a partial-cost coordinate tending to +∞+\infty+∞. Assumption 2 makes each control space compact, each cost function lower semicontinuous, and each transition-probability coordinate continuous. Work takes place in X={x∈Rn:x1=0}X=\{x\in\mathbb R^n:x_1=0\}X={x∈Rn:x1​=0}. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 583–584.

Formalization targets

Proposition 2: Bellman's equation and value iteration

Under Assumptions 1 and 2, the optimal cost is finite and is the unique fixed point of TTT in XXX. Every initial x∈Xx\in Xx∈X has

lim⁡t→∞Tt(x)=x∗.\lim_{t\to\infty}T^t(x)=x^*.t→∞lim​Tt(x)=x∗.

A stationary selector μ\muμ is optimal exactly when Tμ(x∗)=T(x∗)T_\mu(x^*)=T(x^*)Tμ​(x∗)=T(x∗); an optimal proper stationary selector exists. These are all clauses of Proposition 2, rather than separate targets selected from it. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), p. 586, Proposition 2.

Supporting results

The milestone list follows the source's Proposition 1, Lemmas 1–3, and the numbered equations used by their proof. Proposition 1 supplies a weighted maximum-norm contraction when every stationary policy is proper. Lemma 1 describes fixed costs of a proper policy and characterizes properness through a Bellman inequality. Lemma 2 gives continuity of TTT. Lemma 3 controls limits of proper policies; its second part detects a limit that becomes improper through diverging costs. Appendix equations (22) and (24), and the policy-improvement equation (15), provide the paper's intermediate targets. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 585–587, 591–592.

Significance

Proposition 2 identifies the cost of the best policy by a finite-dimensional Bellman equation even though the definition of optimal cost ranges over all, possibly nonstationary, policies. Its convergence clause justifies value iteration from any vector whose destination coordinate is zero. Its policy criterion and existence clause connect a fixed point to an implementable stationary decision rule. The paper applies these conclusions to successive approximation and policy iteration in §4. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 586, 590–591.

The paper proves these statements. This mission seeks machine-checked proofs of their exact finite-state formulation and of the listed intermediate results. The resulting finite stochastic-matrix, hitting, and policy-cost infrastructure can also support other undiscounted control problems. The related proved Prove2Me result for the all-proper finite-control case does not settle this mission's compact-control or improper-policy cases.

Difficulty

When every stationary policy is proper, a common weighted maximum norm makes the Bellman mapping contract. An improper policy can destroy this route: Figure 2 has an absorbing destination and satisfies both assumptions, yet T(0,x2)=(0,min⁡{1+x2,2})T(0,x_2)=(0,\min\{1+x_2,2\})T(0,x2​)=(0,min{1+x2​,2}) is not a contraction in any norm on XXX. The main result therefore needs a way to retain fixed-point uniqueness and convergence without a uniform contraction rate. Compactness matters because a sequence of proper selectors may converge to an improper selector; Lemma 3 explains the associated cost behavior. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 585–586, 591–595.

Formalization scope

States are Fin n, with the paper's state 111 represented by 0; the model requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1. A control set U(i)U(i)U(i) is a type with a metric, with compactness asserted for its whole carrier. Transition rows explicitly have nonnegative entries summing to one. These are the probability-vector conditions implicit in the word “probability.” Assumption 1 supplies a selector and therefore nonempty control sets. The paper writes T:Rn→RnT:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nT:Rn→Rn; where a theorem uses only Assumption 1, finite real Bellman infima are made explicit through TRealValued. Under Assumption 2, compactness and lower semicontinuity give real attained minima. Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis (1991), pp. 582–584.

Policy costs and their infimum use extended reals so that an improper policy's +∞+\infty+∞ cost is represented without a default finite value. Proposition 2 concludes, rather than assumes, that x∗x^*x∗ has real coordinates. Its policy infimum ranges over every sequence of selectors. Matrix products use the identity at time zero; T0T^0T0 is the identity. The destination-zero restriction is retained in every fixed-point and iteration claim. Defining optimal cost as a Bellman fixed point, or restricting the infimum to stationary policies, would remove the result the paper proves. Solvers can contribute the finite-chain, matrix-inverse, semicontinuity, and convergence arguments needed by these targets.

Selected references

  • Dimitri P. Bertsekas and John N. Tsitsiklis, An Analysis of Stochastic Shortest Path Problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 16(3), 580–595, 1991. DOI.
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity IV: Gradient Descent on a Convex β-Smooth Function Has Rate 2β‖x₁ − x*‖²/(t − 1)Textbook

Motivation

Gradient descent goes back to Cauchy (1847). It is the simplest method for minimizing a differentiable function, and most of the first-order methods in large-scale optimization and machine learning are variants of it. Its appeal in high dimension is that its oracle complexity, the number of gradient evaluations needed to reach a given accuracy, can be bounded independently of the dimension. For a merely Lipschitz convex function the projected subgradient method needs on the order of 1/ε21/\varepsilon^21/ε2 steps to reach accuracy ε\varepsilonε (Theorem 3.2 of the book). Under a smoothness assumption gradient descent does much better, because the gradients shrink near the optimum and the steps adapt automatically.

This mission formalizes the basic result of that kind: Theorem 3.3 of S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity (Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4), 2015; arXiv:1405.4980v2). It states that gradient descent with step size 1/β1/\beta1/β on a convex β\betaβ-smooth function on Rn\mathbb R^nRn has optimality gap O(1/t)O(1/t)O(1/t) after ttt steps. The result and its proof are standard; versions appear in Nesterov's Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization (2004, §2.1.5). It is the fourth mission in a series that formalizes the capstone results of Bubeck's monograph.

Setting

Write Rn\mathbb R^nRn for Euclidean space with inner product x⊤yx^\top yx⊤y and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. Let f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R be differentiable with gradient ∇f\nabla f∇f.

  • fff is convex if f((1−λ)x+λy)≤(1−λ)f(x)+λf(y)f((1-\lambda)x+\lambda y)\le(1-\lambda)f(x)+\lambda f(y)f((1−λ)x+λy)≤(1−λ)f(x)+λf(y) for all x,yx,yx,y and λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1].
  • For β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, fff is β\betaβ-smooth if its gradient is β\betaβ-Lipschitz:
∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥for all x,y∈Rn.\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|\le\beta\|x-y\|\qquad\text{for all }x,y\in\mathbb R^n.∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥for all x,y∈Rn.
  • A minimizer is a point x∗x^*x∗ with f(x∗)≤f(y)f(x^*)\le f(y)f(x∗)≤f(y) for every yyy. Throughout the book a minimizer is assumed to exist.
  • Gradient descent with step size η>0\eta>0η>0, started at x1∈Rnx_1\in\mathbb R^nx1​∈Rn, is the sequence
xt+1=xt−η∇f(xt),t≥1.(3.1)x_{t+1}=x_t-\eta\nabla f(x_t),\qquad t\ge1. \tag{3.1}xt+1​=xt​−η∇f(xt​),t≥1.(3.1)

The optimality gaps are δs=f(xs)−f(x∗)≥0\delta_s=f(x_s)-f(x^*)\ge0δs​=f(xs​)−f(x∗)≥0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 267)

If fff is convex and β\betaβ-smooth with β>0\beta>0β>0, x∗x^*x∗ is a minimizer, and (xt)(x_t)(xt​) is gradient descent with η=1/β\eta=1/\betaη=1/β, then for every t≥2t\ge2t≥2

f(xt)−f(x∗)≤2β∥x1−x∗∥2t−1.f(x_t)-f(x^*)\le\frac{2\beta\|x_1-x^*\|^2}{t-1}.f(xt​)−f(x∗)≤t−12β∥x1​−x∗∥2​.

Milestones

These are the statements the book's proof uses, in the book's order:

  1. Lemma 3.4 (p. 267). For any β\betaβ-smooth fff, with no convexity: ∣f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)∣≤β2∥x−y∥2|f(x)-f(y)-\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)|\le\frac\beta2\|x-y\|^2∣f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)∣≤2β​∥x−y∥2.
  2. (3.4) (p. 267). For convex β\betaβ-smooth fff: 0≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤β2∥x−y∥20\le f(x)-f(y)-\nabla f(y)^\top(x-y)\le\frac\beta2\|x-y\|^20≤f(x)−f(y)−∇f(y)⊤(x−y)≤2β​∥x−y∥2.
  3. (3.5) (p. 267). For convex fff, one step of length 1/β1/\beta1/β decreases fff by at least 12β∥∇f(x)∥2\frac1{2\beta}\|\nabla f(x)\|^22β1​∥∇f(x)∥2.
  4. Lemma 3.5 (p. 268). If (3.4) holds, then f(x)−f(y)≤∇f(x)⊤(x−y)−12β∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥2f(x)-f(y)\le\nabla f(x)^\top(x-y)-\frac1{2\beta}\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|^2f(x)−f(y)≤∇f(x)⊤(x−y)−2β1​∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥2.
  5. (3.6) (p. 269). Co-coercivity: (∇f(x)−∇f(y))⊤(x−y)≥1β∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥2(\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y))^\top(x-y)\ge\frac1\beta\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|^2(∇f(x)−∇f(y))⊤(x−y)≥β1​∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥2.
  6. Distances decrease (proof of Theorem 3.3, p. 269). ∥xs+1−x∗∥≤∥xs−x∗∥\|x_{s+1}-x^*\|\le\|x_s-x^*\|∥xs+1​−x∗∥≤∥xs​−x∗∥ for every s≥1s\ge1s≥1.
  7. The recursion (p. 268). δs+1≤δs−12β∥x1−x∗∥2δs2\delta_{s+1}\le\delta_s-\frac{1}{2\beta\|x_1-x^*\|^2}\delta_s^2δs+1​≤δs​−2β∥x1​−x∗∥21​δs2​.
  8. From the recursion to the rate (p. 269). For ω>0\omega>0ω>0 and non-negative reals, ωδs2+δs+1≤δs\omega\delta_s^2+\delta_{s+1}\le\delta_sωδs2​+δs+1​≤δs​ for all s≥1s\ge 1s≥1 implies 1/δt≥ω(t−1)1/\delta_t\ge\omega(t-1)1/δt​≥ω(t−1).

Stronger companion: footnote 4 (p. 269)

Under the same hypotheses, f(xt)−f(x∗)≤2β∥x1−x∗∥2/(t+3)f(x_t)-f(x^*)\le 2\beta\|x_1-x^*\|^2/(t+3)f(xt​)−f(x∗)≤2β∥x1​−x∗∥2/(t+3) for every t≥1t\ge1t≥1.

Significance

Theorem 3.3 is the reference rate for first-order methods on smooth convex problems. Several later results in the book are measured against it. Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent (§3.7) improves 1/t1/t1/t to 1/t21/t^21/t2, the lower bounds of §3.5 show that 1/t21/t^21/t2 cannot be beaten by any black-box first-order method, and adding strong convexity (§3.4) upgrades 1/t1/t1/t to a linear rate. Its ingredients are reused throughout the book and the optimization literature: the descent lemma (Lemma 3.4), the one-step improvement (3.5) and co-coercivity (3.6). Co-coercivity is the finite-dimensional case of the Baillon–Haddad theorem.

The result is classical and fully proved on paper. To our knowledge Mathlib does not contain this rate for gradient descent on convex smooth functions, and no published Prove2Me theorem states it. The mission provides it, together with Lemma 3.4 and co-coercivity as reusable statements on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). These are the facts that later missions of the series on projected gradient descent, strong convexity and acceleration need. Formalizing the improved constant of footnote 4 is a welcome addition.

Difficulty

Two steps are not routine. The first is Lemma 3.4, where the book integrates the gradient along a segment. In Lean this needs a mean-value or fundamental-theorem-of-calculus argument for a function on a Euclidean space, together with a Cauchy–Schwarz estimate, and Mathlib's HasGradientAt interface has to be connected to one-variable derivatives along lines.

The second is the monotonicity of ∥xs−x∗∥\|x_s-x^*\|∥xs​−x∗∥. The natural first attempt is to telescope the one-step improvement (3.5) together with the convexity bound δs≤∥xs−x∗∥∥∇f(xs)∥\delta_s\le\|x_s-x^*\|\|\nabla f(x_s)\|δs​≤∥xs​−x∗∥∥∇f(xs​)∥. That gives a recursion involving ∥xs−x∗∥\|x_s-x^*\|∥xs​−x∗∥, which is not controlled by ∥x1−x∗∥\|x_1-x^*\|∥x1​−x∗∥ without further work. Making the recursion uniform requires co-coercivity (3.6), which comes from Lemma 3.5. That lemma's hypothesis is the two-sided inequality (3.4), not smoothness directly. The final numerical step divides by the gaps δs\delta_sδs​, so zero gaps need separate handling.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and x⊤yx^\top yx⊤y is ⟪x, y⟫_ℝ.
  • The gradient is an explicit map g:Rn→Rng:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^ng:Rn→Rn with the hypothesis ∀ x, HasGradientAt f (g x) x.
  • β\betaβ-smoothness (IsBetaSmooth f g β) is the book's definition: β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0, the gradient-existence hypothesis, and the Lipschitz bound ∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥\|g(x)-g(y)\|\le\beta\|x-y\|∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤β∥x−y∥. The book's "continuously differentiable" follows from it.
  • Convexity is Mathlib's ConvexOn ℝ Set.univ f. A minimizer is a point xstar with ∀ y, f xstar ≤ f y; its existence is the book's standing assumption, and ∇f(x∗)=0\nabla f(x^*)=0∇f(x∗)=0 is derived, not assumed.
  • A gradient-descent run (IsGDRun g η x) is a sequence x : ℕ → ℝⁿ with η>0\eta>0η>0 and xt+1=xt−ηg(xt)x_{t+1}=x_t-\eta g(x_t)xt+1​=xt​−ηg(xt​) for every t≥1t\ge1t≥1. The book's x1x_1x1​ is x 1, and index 000 is unused. Every theorem quantifies over all runs with η=1/β\eta=1/\betaη=1/β.

Disclosed side conditions:

  • β>0\beta>0β>0 wherever the page divides by β\betaβ. Convexity is retained for (3.5), as in its source context.
  • t≥2t\ge2t≥2 in the goal, where the page's bound has denominator t−1t-1t−1.
  • Statements in which the page divides by δs\delta_sδs​ or by ∥x1−x∗∥2\|x_1-x^*\|^2∥x1​−x∗∥2 are multiplied through, so that they stay true and meaningful when those quantities vanish.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. Smoothness is the Lipschitz condition on the gradient, so Lemma 3.4 and (3.4) are not restatements of the definition, as they would be if the quadratic upper bound (3.4) were taken as the definition of smoothness. The run predicate also fixes the step size 1/β1/\beta1/β.

A complete development needs:

  • the segment integral or mean-value estimate for HasGradientAt functions;
  • first-order characterizations of convexity for differentiable functions;
  • elementary inner-product algebra.

Lemma 3.4, Lemma 3.5 and (3.6) are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • S. Bubeck, Convex Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 8(3–4):231–357, 2015. arXiv:1405.4980v2; §3.2, pp. 266–269.
  • A. Cauchy, Méthode générale pour la résolution des systèmes d'équations simultanées, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris 25:536–538, 1847.
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
  • J.-B. Baillon and G. Haddad, Quelques propriétés des opérateurs angle-bornés et n-cycliquement monotones, Israel J. Math. 26:137–150, 1977. doi:10.1007/BF03007664
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Dynamic ProgrammingGraph TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On a Routing Problem: Successive Approximations from the Direct-Route Policy Decrease to the Unique Solution of the Routing Equation Within N − 1 IterationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Finding the quickest route between two points of a road network is among the oldest problems of operations research. It is the subproblem inside vehicle routing, network flow and many dynamic programs. Richard Bellman's four-page note On a routing problem (Quarterly of Applied Mathematics, 1958) treats it as a dynamic program. The minimal travel times satisfy a nonlinear system of equations, and that system can be solved by successive approximations that terminate after a number of steps bounded in advance. The iteration is now known as the Bellman–Ford method. A footnote added in proof records that Max Woodbury and George Dantzig had obtained the same scheme independently, and Ford's RAND report of 1956 describes a closely related labelling procedure.

Timeline.

  • 1956. L. R. Ford Jr., Network flow theory (RAND P-923): a label-improving procedure for shortest paths.
  • 1957. Bellman's Dynamic Programming (Princeton) states the principle of optimality used here.
  • 1958. Bellman's note: the routing equation, its uniqueness, approximation in policy space with an (N − 1)-step bound, and a second, monotone increasing scheme.
  • 1959. Dijkstra gives a label-setting method for nonnegative lengths.
  • 1962. Floyd's Algorithm 97 computes all pairs of shortest distances.

Setting

There are NNN cities, numbered 1,…,N1, \dots, N1,…,N. Every two of them are linked by a direct road, and city NNN is the destination. The travel time from iii to jjj is a real number tijt_{ij}tij​; the matrix T=(tij)T = (t_{ij})T=(tij​) need not be symmetric. Throughout, tij>0t_{ij} > 0tij​>0 for i≠ji \ne ji=j.

A route from iii to NNN is a sequence of cities i=c0,c1,…,cm=Ni = c_0, c_1, \dots, c_m = Ni=c0​,c1​,…,cm​=N in which consecutive cities differ. Its stops are c1,…,cm−1c_1, \dots, c_{m-1}c1​,…,cm−1​, and its time is ∑r<mtcrcr+1\sum_{r<m} t_{c_r c_{r+1}}∑r<m​tcr​cr+1​​. The minimal time fif_ifi​ (3.1) is the least time of a route from iii to NNN, and fN=0f_N = 0fN​=0.

The routing equation (3.2) is the system

Fi=min⁡j≠i [tij+Fj](i=1,…,N−1),FN=0.F_i = \min_{j \ne i}\,[t_{ij} + F_j]\quad (i = 1, \dots, N-1), \qquad F_N = 0 .Fi​=j=imin​[tij​+Fj​](i=1,…,N−1),FN​=0.

Approximation in policy space (§5) starts from the direct-route policy (5.2), fi(0)=tiNf_i^{(0)} = t_{iN}fi(0)​=tiN​, and iterates (5.1):

fi(k+1)=min⁡j≠i [tij+fj(k)](i≠N),fN(k+1)=0.f_i^{(k+1)} = \min_{j \ne i}\,[t_{ij} + f_j^{(k)}]\quad (i \ne N), \qquad f_N^{(k+1)} = 0 .fi(k+1)​=j=imin​[tij​+fj(k)​](i=N),fN(k+1)​=0.

The second scheme (§7, (7.1)) starts instead from f‾i(0)=min⁡j≠itij\underline f_i^{(0)} = \min_{j\ne i} t_{ij}f​i(0)​=minj=i​tij​ and uses the same step.

Formalization targets

Goal: convergence within N−1N - 1N−1 iterations

For every k≥N−1k \ge N - 1k≥N−1 the following hold. Each fi(k)f_i^{(k)}fi(k)​ is the minimal time from iii to NNN, attained by a route. The vector f(k)f^{(k)}f(k) solves (3.2). Every real solution of (3.2) equals f(k)f^{(k)}f(k):

k≥N−1  ⟹  f(k)=f=the unique solution of (3.2).k \ge N-1 \;\Longrightarrow\; f^{(k)} = f = \text{the unique solution of (3.2)}.k≥N−1⟹f(k)=f=the unique solution of (3.2).

This is the claim of the Summary ("converges after at most (N−1)(N-1)(N−1) iterations") and of the last sentence of §5. The paper's bound N−1N - 1N−1 is kept, although N−2N - 2N−2 also suffices.

Milestones

  1. (3.2): the minimal times exist and satisfy the routing equation.
  2. §4: (3.2) has at most one solution.
  3. (5.4): f(1)≤f(0)f^{(1)} \le f^{(0)}f(1)≤f(0).
  4. §5, the sentence after (5.4): fi(k)f_i^{(k)}fi(k)​ is the minimal time over routes with at most kkk stops.
  5. (5.5): f(k+1)≤f(k)f^{(k+1)} \le f^{(k)}f(k+1)≤f(k) for all kkk.
  6. §7: the scheme (7.1) increases, stays below the solution of (3.2) (7.2), and equals it from some index on.

Significance

The result. The note turns an enumeration over exponentially many paths into N−1N - 1N−1 rounds of NNN minimisations each, with a bound fixed before the computation starts. The uniqueness theorem makes the routing equation a characterisation of the minimal times, not merely a property of them. This is the template for later correctness proofs of shortest-path and value-iteration algorithms. The monotone decrease (5.5) is the first instance of policy improvement: every iterate is the value of an actual routing policy.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and proved. What this mission adds is a machine-checked development against the paper's own objects. Routes, their times and minimal times are defined from scratch. The iteration is stated exactly as printed, apart from the corrected initial value at the destination. The (N − 1)-step termination is asserted as an equality, not a limit. Related platform items treat other methods and do not cover these statements. One is the label-correcting method (BertsekasDP.label_correcting_correctness_of_nonneg_arcs, BertsekasDP.label_correcting_terminates). Another is the stochastic shortest path problem under a termination assumption that fails for deterministic routing (BertsekasDP.ssp_main_theorem). There are also the generic candidate-list algorithm (BertsekasNetwork.generic_shortest_path_algorithm), Floyd's Algorithm 97 and Dijkstra's method.

Difficulty

The minimum in (3.2) may be attained at a jjj whose own optimal route passes back through iii. The routing equation is a fixed-point equation for an operator that is monotone but not a contraction in any fixed norm. The standard contraction argument for discounted dynamic programs therefore does not apply. Uniqueness has to use tij>0t_{ij} > 0tij​>0 to exclude zero-time cycles: with t12=t21=0t_{12} = t_{21} = 0t12​=t21​=0, the system (3.2) has infinitely many solutions. The N−1N - 1N−1 bound depends on the at-most-kkk-stops reading of f(k)f^{(k)}f(k) and on the fact that an optimal route never needs to revisit a city. Neither is visible from the recursion alone. For the scheme of §7, the page gives no bound on the number of iterations, and none holds uniformly in ttt.

Formalization scope

Cities are Fin (n + 1), so N=n+1N = n + 1N=n+1, with standing hypothesis n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. City NNN is Fin.last n, and travel times are t : Fin (n + 1) → Fin (n + 1) → ℝ with tij>0t_{ij} > 0tij​>0 for i≠ji \ne ji=j. Diagonal entries are unconstrained and never used. No symmetry, triangle inequality or integrality is assumed. A route is a list of cities with distinct consecutive entries ending at NNN. Repeated cities are allowed; with positive times this changes no minimum. Minimal times are attained minima over routes (IsMinTime, IsMinTimeWithin), not real infima. The minimum in (3.2) is a Finset.inf' over all j≠ij \ne ij=i, the destination included.

The paper's loose phrases are made explicit as follows.

  • "Using an optimal policy" (3.1) becomes a minimum attained by a route and below every route.
  • "Represents the minimum time for a path with at most one stop" becomes, for every kkk, a minimum over routes with at most k+1k + 1k+1 roads.
  • "Converges after at most (N−1)(N - 1)(N−1) iterations" becomes f(k)=ff^{(k)} = ff(k)=f for every k≥N−1k \ge N - 1k≥N−1.
  • "Only a finite number of iterations will be required" (§7) becomes ∃K,∀k≥K\exists K, \forall k \ge K∃K,∀k≥K, f‾(k)=f\underline f^{(k)} = ff​(k)=f.
  • "The solution of (3.2)" in §7 becomes an arbitrary solution of (3.2), which milestones 1–2 show is the vector of minimal times.

Two printed slips are corrected. (5.2) is printed for i=1,…,Ni = 1, \dots, Ni=1,…,N, which would set fN(0)=tNNf_N^{(0)} = t_{NN}fN(0)​=tNN​, and with tNN>0t_{NN} > 0tNN​>0 statements (5.4), (5.5) and the goal would be false. The formalization uses fN(0)=0f_N^{(0)} = 0fN(0)​=0, the value the paper's own justification needs. (7.1) prints "N=1N = 1N=1" for N−1N - 1N−1. Section 6 (computational aspects) and the closing expectation of §7 that the first method converges faster are not formalized.

The goal cannot be satisfied trivially. The minimal times are defined from routes, not as a solution of (3.2) or as a limit of the iteration, so the goal connects the recursion to the routing problem itself.

The development needs only finite minima, lists and induction; nothing beyond core Mathlib. The route and minimal-time layer is reusable for other deterministic shortest-path results. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the sharper bound N−2N - 2N−2.

Selected references

  • R. Bellman, On a routing problem, Quarterly of Applied Mathematics 16(1) (1958), 87–90. https://doi.org/10.1090/qam/102435
  • R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957.
  • R. Bellman, The theory of dynamic programming, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 60 (1954), 503–515. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1954-09848-8
  • L. R. Ford Jr., Network flow theory, RAND Corporation P-923, 1956. https://www.rand.org/pubs/papers/P923.html
  • E. W. Dijkstra, A note on two problems in connexion with graphs, Numerische Mathematik 1 (1959), 269–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01386390
  • R. W. Floyd, Algorithm 97: Shortest path, Communications of the ACM 5(6) (1962), 345. https://doi.org/10.1145/367766.368168
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Airline Seat Allocation with Multiple Nested Fare Classes 1: Protection Levels Solving f₁Pr[X₁ > p₁ ∩ … ∩ X₁ + … + X_k > p_k] = f_{k+1} Maximize Expected RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

An airline sells the seats of one flight leg at several fares. Cheaper fares are booked earlier, so the airline must decide, while low-fare requests arrive, how many seats to hold back for later and more valuable passengers. In nested booking control a seat that could be sold at a low fare is always available to a higher fare. The airline therefore chooses protection levels: pkp_kpk​ seats are reserved for the kkk most expensive classes together, and a request of class k+1k+1k+1 is accepted only while more than pkp_kpk​ seats remain.

For two classes the optimal protection level was found by Littlewood (1972): protect p1p_1p1​ seats, where f1Pr⁡[X1>p1]=f2f_1 \Pr[X_1 > p_1] = f_2f1​Pr[X1​>p1​]=f2​. For more classes the industry used the EMSRa heuristic of Belobaba (1987, 1989), which applies Littlewood's rule to each pair of classes separately and adds the results. Brumelle and McGill (1993) gave the exact optimality conditions for any number of nested classes and showed that EMSRa is in general not optimal. Their conditions are part of the standard theory of single-leg revenue management, as presented in Talluri and van Ryzin (2004).

Setting

There are fare classes k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,…, numbered from the highest fare. Class kkk has fare fkf_kfk​ and random demand Xk≥0X_k \ge 0Xk​≥0. The standing assumptions (pp. 128–129) are: the demands are mutually independent random variables on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), and the fares are strictly decreasing, f1>f2>⋯f_1 > f_2 > \cdotsf1​>f2​>⋯. Demands arrive in order of increasing fare: all of class k+1k+1k+1 before any of class kkk. There are no cancellations or no-shows, and the decision to close a class depends only on the number of current bookings.

A protection-level policy is a vector p=(p1,p2,… )p = (p_1, p_2, \dots)p=(p1​,p2​,…) with pk≥0p_k \ge 0pk​≥0; the dummy p0=0p_0 = 0p0​=0. The revenue Rk[s;p;x]R_k[s; p; x]Rk​[s;p;x] of the kkk highest classes with sss seats available and demand vector xxx is defined recursively by (8)–(9), p. 130:

R1[s;p;x]=f1min⁡(s,x1),R_1[s; p; x] = f_1 \min(s, x_1),R1​[s;p;x]=f1​min(s,x1​), Rk+1[s;p;x]={Rk[s;p;x]0≤s<pk,(s−pk)fk+1+Rk[pk;p;x]pk≤s<pk+xk+1,xk+1fk+1+Rk[s−xk+1;p;x]pk+xk+1≤s.R_{k+1}[s; p; x] = \begin{cases} R_k[s; p; x] & 0 \le s < p_k, \\ (s - p_k) f_{k+1} + R_k[p_k; p; x] & p_k \le s < p_k + x_{k+1}, \\ x_{k+1} f_{k+1} + R_k[s - x_{k+1}; p; x] & p_k + x_{k+1} \le s. \end{cases}Rk+1​[s;p;x]=⎩⎨⎧​Rk​[s;p;x](s−pk​)fk+1​+Rk​[pk​;p;x]xk+1​fk+1​+Rk​[s−xk+1​;p;x]​0≤s<pk​,pk​≤s<pk​+xk+1​,pk​+xk+1​≤s.​

The expected revenue is ERk[s;p;X]=E Rk[s;p;X]ER_k[s; p; X] = E\,R_k[s; p; X]ERk​[s;p;X]=ERk​[s;p;X]. A policy ppp is optimal if ERk[s;q;X]≤ERk[s;p;X]ER_k[s; q; X] \le ER_k[s; p; X]ERk​[s;q;X]≤ERk​[s;p;X] for every policy qqq, every k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and every s≥0s \ge 0s≥0.

For g:R→Rg : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rg:R→R, δ+g[s]\delta_+ g[s]δ+​g[s] and δ−g[s]\delta_- g[s]δ−​g[s] denote the right and left derivatives, and the subdifferential δg[s]\delta g[s]δg[s] is the interval [δ+g[s],δ−g[s]][\delta_+ g[s], \delta_- g[s]][δ+​g[s],δ−​g[s]], with δ−g[0]=+∞\delta_- g[0] = +\inftyδ−​g[0]=+∞ (p. 131).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 134)

If the protection levels satisfy

f1Pr⁡[X1>p1∩X1+X2>p2∩⋯∩X1+⋯+Xk>pk]=fk+1for all k≥1,(31)f_1 \Pr[X_1 > p_1 \cap X_1 + X_2 > p_2 \cap \dots \cap X_1 + \dots + X_k > p_k] = f_{k+1} \quad \text{for all } k \ge 1, \tag{31}f1​Pr[X1​>p1​∩X1​+X2​>p2​∩⋯∩X1​+⋯+Xk​>pk​]=fk+1​for all k≥1,(31)

then ppp is optimal.

Milestones

  1. (27), p. 132: ER1ER_1ER1​ is concave, and δER1[s;p;X]=[f1Pr⁡[X1>s],f1Pr⁡[X1≥s]]\delta ER_1[s; p; X] = [f_1 \Pr[X_1 > s], f_1 \Pr[X_1 \ge s]]δER1​[s;p;X]=[f1​Pr[X1​>s],f1​Pr[X1​≥s]].
  2. Lemma 1, p. 131: if ERk[ ⋅ ;p;X]ER_k[\,\cdot\,; p; X]ERk​[⋅;p;X] is concave on s≥0s \ge 0s≥0 and fk+1∈δERk[pk;p;X]f_{k+1} \in \delta ER_k[p_k; p; X]fk+1​∈δERk​[pk​;p;X], then E{Rk+1[s;p;X]∣Xk+1}E\{R_{k+1}[s; p; X] \mid X_{k+1}\}E{Rk+1​[s;p;X]∣Xk+1​} is concave in sss.
  3. Corollary 1, p. 131: under the same conditions ERk+1[ ⋅ ;p;X]ER_{k+1}[\,\cdot\,; p; X]ERk+1​[⋅;p;X] is concave on s≥0s \ge 0s≥0.
  4. Theorem 1, p. 131: if fk+1∈δERk[pk;p;X]f_{k+1} \in \delta ER_k[p_k; p; X]fk+1​∈δERk​[pk​;p;X] for every kkk (condition (20)), then ppp is optimal.
  5. Lemma 2, p. 134: under (31), for s≥pks \ge p_ks≥pk​,
δ+E{Rk+1[s;p;X]∣Xk+1}=f1Pr⁡[X1>p1∩⋯∩X1+⋯+Xk>pk∩X1+⋯+Xk+1>s∣Xk+1].\delta_+ E\{R_{k+1}[s; p; X] \mid X_{k+1}\} = f_1 \Pr[X_1 > p_1 \cap \dots \cap X_1 + \dots + X_k > p_k \cap X_1 + \dots + X_{k+1} > s \mid X_{k+1}].δ+​E{Rk+1​[s;p;X]∣Xk+1​}=f1​Pr[X1​>p1​∩⋯∩X1​+⋯+Xk​>pk​∩X1​+⋯+Xk+1​>s∣Xk+1​].
  1. Corollary 2, p. 134: the unconditional version (37) of Lemma 2 for δ+ERk+1[s;p;X]\delta_+ ER_{k+1}[s; p; X]δ+​ERk+1​[s;p;X].

Significance

Theorem 3 turns the optimal nested protection levels into a sequence of equations in the joint distribution of the cumulative demands X1+⋯+XjX_1 + \dots + X_jX1​+⋯+Xj​. For k=1k = 1k=1 it is Littlewood's rule. For k≥2k \ge 2k≥2 it identifies exactly what EMSRa approximates: EMSRa replaces the joint event in (31) by separate pairwise comparisons, and the paper shows (§4) that EMSRa can both over- and underestimate the optimal protection levels. The conditions are also the input of numerical methods: given demand forecasts, the levels p1,p2,…p_1, p_2, \dotsp1​,p2​,… are found one after another by solving (31), and §3.3 notes that a continuous joint demand distribution guarantees a solution exists.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known they have no machine-checked proof. Related platform items cover the two-class, integer-seat case from Belobaba (1987) (SeatInventory.Nested.emsr_protection_level_optimal) and the integer marginal-seat-revenue analogue of (27). They use a different model: two classes, natural-number seats and first differences. This mission formalizes the multi-class statement with real-valued seats and one-sided derivatives. A sister mission of the series proves the existence of optimal integer policies for integer-valued demand (Theorem 2).

Difficulty

The expected revenue is not differentiable: for discrete demand it is piecewise linear, so first-order conditions must be stated with one-sided derivatives and subdifferentials. The natural approach, to optimize each protection level separately with the others fixed, fails without concavity, and concavity of ERk+1ER_{k+1}ERk+1​ in sss is not automatic. It holds only when the lower protection levels already satisfy the first-order conditions. Concavity and optimality must therefore be carried through one joint induction over the classes. Passing from (31) to (20) requires computing the right derivative of the expected revenue in closed form for every s≥pks \ge p_ks≥pk​. This involves exchanging differentiation with expectation and conditioning on one class's demand at a time.

Formalization scope

  • Classes are indexed by N\mathbb NN from 111; fares, demands and protection levels are sequences N→R\mathbb N \to \mathbb RN→R, with no bound on the number of classes. Seats and protection levels are real numbers.
  • Expectation is the Bochner integral on a probability space. The standing assumptions are a single predicate: probability measure, measurable nonnegative demands, mutual independence (iIndepFun), strictly decreasing fares.
  • E{⋅∣Xk}E\{\cdot \mid X_k\}E{⋅∣Xk​} evaluated at Xk=yX_k = yXk​=y is the integral with the kkk-th demand frozen at yyy. Because the demands are independent this is a version of the conditional expectation, and "with probability 1" becomes "for every y≥0y \ge 0y≥0", which is stronger.
  • One-sided derivatives are HasDerivWithinAt on half-lines and must exist; derivWithin, which returns 000 where no derivative exists, is not used. δ−g[0]=+∞\delta_- g[0] = +\inftyδ−​g[0]=+∞ is encoded as a disjunct.
  • Optimality is global: ppp beats every policy qqq at every level kkk and every s≥0s \ge 0s≥0. The page's proof of Theorem 1 shows coordinatewise optimality of pkp_kpk​, and the global form follows by induction on kkk.
  • Fares are not assumed positive in the model: under (20) or (31) with strictly decreasing fares, f1>0f_1 > 0f1​>0 follows. The milestone (27), stated with only the hypotheses on X1X_1X1​ that it needs, assumes X1≥0X_1 \ge 0X1​≥0 and f1≥0f_1 \ge 0f1​≥0, without which ER1ER_1ER1​ is not concave.
  • No continuity of the demand distribution is assumed. Theorem 3 is conditional on a solution of (31).
  • The page's hypothesis of Lemma 1 has the misprint "(p0,…,pk+1)(p_0, \dots, p_{k+1})(p0​,…,pk+1​)" for (p0,…,pk−1)(p_0, \dots, p_{k-1})(p0​,…,pk−1​). The formal statement uses the latter.

The goal assumes only the standing assumptions, p≥0p \ge 0p≥0, and (31). It does not assume concavity, condition (20) or any derivative formula: those are milestones. A formalization that quantified optimality over one level, one value of sss, or policies differing from ppp in one coordinate would be weaker than the paper and is excluded.

A complete development needs one-sided derivatives of integrals of piecewise-linear functions (dominated convergence for difference quotients), concavity of piecewise functions glued at points where the slopes decrease, and the independence calculus that turns E[E{⋅∣Xk+1}]E[E\{\cdot \mid X_{k+1}\}]E[E{⋅∣Xk+1​}] into an iterated integral. These pieces are reusable for other newsvendor-type and revenue-management models. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments for Theorem 1, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. L. Brumelle and J. I. McGill, Airline Seat Allocation with Multiple Nested Fare Classes, Operations Research 41(1), 127–137, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.1.127
  • K. Littlewood, Forecasting and Control of Passenger Bookings, AGIFORS Symposium Proceedings 12, 95–117, 1972; reprinted in Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management 4(2), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rpm.5170134
  • P. P. Belobaba, Air Travel Demand and Airline Seat Inventory Management, PhD thesis, MIT, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68077
  • P. P. Belobaba, Application of a Probabilistic Decision Model to Airline Seat Inventory Control, Operations Research 37(2), 183–197, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.2.183
  • K. T. Talluri and G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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Algebraic GeometryComplexity TheoryLinear Optimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Log-Barrier Interior Point Methods Are Not Strongly Polynomial 1: Every Polygonal Curve in the Wide Neighborhood of the Central Path of LW_r(t) from μ̄ ≤ 1 to μ̄ ≥ t² Has at Least 2^(r−1) SegmentsResearch Paper

Motivation

Interior point methods solve linear programs in a number of arithmetic operations polynomial in the bit length of the input (Karmarkar 1984). Whether linear programming admits a strongly polynomial algorithm, one whose number of arithmetic operations is bounded by a polynomial in the number of variables and constraints alone, is open; it is the ninth of Smale's problems for the next century (Smale 1998/2000, see the references). A natural question is whether some interior point method is strongly polynomial. Primal-dual path-following methods follow the central path of a log-barrier problem and are the methods used in practice.

Allamigeon, Benchimol, Gaubert and Joswig (arXiv:1708.01544, SIAM J. Appl. Algebra Geom. 2018) gave such a family. For linear programs LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t) with 2r2r2r variables and 3r+13r+13r+1 constraints, every path-following method that stays in the wide neighborhood of the central path needs at least 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 iterations once ttt is large enough. The same family disproves the "continuous Hirsch conjecture" of Deza, Terlaky and Zinchenko (DTZ09, see the references) on the total curvature of the central path. That curvature result is the subject of a separate mission. This mission formalizes the iteration bound.

Setting

For a real m×nm\times nm×n matrix AAA, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn and N:=n+mN:=n+mN:=n+m, the paper considers the linear program in slack form and its dual,

LP(A,b,c): min⁡ ⟨c,x⟩  s.t.  Ax+w=b, (x,w)≥0,DualLP(A,b,c): s−A⊤y=c, (s,y)≥0.\mathrm{LP}(A,b,c):\ \min\ \langle c,x\rangle\ \text{ s.t. }\ Ax+w=b,\ (x,w)\ge0,\qquad \mathrm{DualLP}(A,b,c):\ s-A^\top y=c,\ (s,y)\ge0 .LP(A,b,c): min ⟨c,x⟩  s.t.  Ax+w=b, (x,w)≥0,DualLP(A,b,c): s−A⊤y=c, (s,y)≥0.

A primal-dual point is z=(x,w,s,y)∈R2Nz=(x,w,s,y)\in\mathbb R^{2N}z=(x,w,s,y)∈R2N. The set F∘\mathcal F^\circF∘ of strictly feasible points consists of the zzz with all 2N2N2N coordinates positive that satisfy both equality systems. The duality measure is

μˉ(z)=1N(⟨x,s⟩+⟨w,y⟩),\bar\mu(z)=\frac1N\big(\langle x,s\rangle+\langle w,y\rangle\big),μˉ​(z)=N1​(⟨x,s⟩+⟨w,y⟩),

and for 0<θ<10<\theta<10<θ<1 the wide neighborhood of the central path is

Nθ−∞={z∈F∘: xjsj≥(1−θ)μˉ(z) ∀j,  wiyi≥(1−θ)μˉ(z) ∀i}.\mathcal N^{-\infty}_\theta=\Big\{z\in\mathcal F^\circ:\ x_js_j\ge(1-\theta)\bar\mu(z)\ \forall j,\ \ w_iy_i\ge(1-\theta)\bar\mu(z)\ \forall i\Big\}.Nθ−∞​={z∈F∘: xj​sj​≥(1−θ)μˉ​(z) ∀j,  wi​yi​≥(1−θ)μˉ​(z) ∀i}.

The central path itself is the set of points where all products xjsjx_js_jxj​sj​, wiyiw_iy_iwi​yi​ are equal. The neighborhood bounds the products only from below. It contains the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ neighborhoods used by short-step, long-step and predictor-corrector methods.

The instance is LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t), for r≥1r\ge1r≥1 and t>0t>0t>0:

min⁡ x1  s.t.  x1≤t2, x2≤t, x2j+1≤t x2j−1, x2j+1≤t x2j, x2j+2≤t1−1/2j(x2j−1+x2j) (1≤j<r), x2r−1,x2r≥0.\min\ x_1\ \text{ s.t. }\ x_1\le t^2,\ x_2\le t,\ x_{2j+1}\le t\,x_{2j-1},\ x_{2j+1}\le t\,x_{2j},\ x_{2j+2}\le t^{1-1/2^j}(x_{2j-1}+x_{2j})\ (1\le j<r),\ x_{2r-1},x_{2r}\ge0 .min x1​  s.t.  x1​≤t2, x2​≤t, x2j+1​≤tx2j−1​, x2j+1​≤tx2j​, x2j+2​≤t1−1/2j(x2j−1​+x2j​) (1≤j<r), x2r−1​,x2r​≥0.

With slacks w1,…,w3r−1w_1,\dots,w_{3r-1}w1​,…,w3r−1​ it becomes LWr=(t)=LP(A,b,c)\mathbf{LW}^=_r(t)=\mathrm{LP}(A,b,c)LWr=​(t)=LP(A,b,c) with n=2rn=2rn=2r, m=3r−1m=3r-1m=3r−1, N=5r−1N=5r-1N=5r−1. Its wide neighborhood is written Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​. A polygonal curve is a union [z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp][z^0,z^1]\cup\dots\cup[z^{p-1},z^p][z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp] of ppp segments, and it is contained in the neighborhood when every point of every segment is.

The milestones use the tropical semifield T=R∪{−∞}\mathbb T=\mathbb R\cup\{-\infty\}T=R∪{−∞} with a⊕b=max⁡(a,b)a\oplus b=\max(a,b)a⊕b=max(a,b) and a⊙b=a+ba\odot b=a+ba⊙b=a+b. The tropical segment tsegm(u,v)\mathsf{tsegm}(u,v)tsegm(u,v) is the set of points λ⊙u⊕μ⊙v\lambda\odot u\oplus\mu\odot vλ⊙u⊕μ⊙v with λ⊕μ=0\lambda\oplus\mu=0λ⊕μ=0. The Funk metric is δF(x,y)=max⁡(0,max⁡k(yk−xk))\delta_F(x,y)=\max(0,\max_k(y_k-x_k))δF​(x,y)=max(0,maxk​(yk​−xk​)), with d∞(x,y)=max⁡(δF(x,y),δF(y,x))d_\infty(x,y)=\max(\delta_F(x,y),\delta_F(y,x))d∞​(x,y)=max(δF​(x,y),δF​(y,x)) and the directed Hausdorff distance d∞(X,Y)=sup⁡x∈Xinf⁡y∈Yd∞(x,y)d_\infty(X,Y)=\sup_{x\in X}\inf_{y\in Y}d_\infty(x,y)d∞​(X,Y)=supx∈X​infy∈Y​d∞​(x,y). Finally, log⁡t\log_tlogt​ is applied coordinatewise, with log⁡t0=−∞\log_t0=-\inftylogt​0=−∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 30 (p. 27)

Let r≥1r\ge1r≥1 and 0<θ<10<\theta<10<θ<1, and suppose that

t>(max⁡((10r−2)!, ((10r−1)!)24(1−θ)3))2r−1.(36)t>\Big(\max\Big((10r-2)!,\ \frac{((10r-1)!)^{24}}{(1-\theta)^3}\Big)\Big)^{2^{r-1}} .\tag{36}t>(max((10r−2)!, (1−θ)3((10r−1)!)24​))2r−1.(36)

If a polygonal curve [z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp][z^0,z^1]\cup\dots\cup[z^{p-1},z^p][z0,z1]∪⋯∪[zp−1,zp] is contained in Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ with μˉ(z0)≤1\bar\mu(z^0)\le1μˉ​(z0)≤1 and μˉ(zp)≥t2\bar\mu(z^p)\ge t^2μˉ​(zp)≥t2, then

p≥2r−1.p\ge2^{r-1}.p≥2r−1.

The threshold (36) is the paper's own explicit constant. Corollary 31 (Theorem B of the introduction) restates the result for algorithms. Any method whose iterates and the segments joining them stay in the wide neighborhood performs at least 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 iterations to reduce the duality measure from t2t^2t2 to 111.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 5). On the primal-dual feasible set, μˉ((1−α)z+αz′)=(1−α)μˉ(z)+αμˉ(z′)\bar\mu((1-\alpha)z+\alpha z')=(1-\alpha)\bar\mu(z)+\alpha\bar\mu(z')μˉ​((1−α)z+αz′)=(1−α)μˉ​(z)+αμˉ​(z′) for all α∈R\alpha\in\mathbb Rα∈R.
  2. Lemma 5 (p. 10). For u≤vu\le vu≤v in Td\mathbb T^dTd, tsegm(u,v)\mathsf{tsegm}(u,v)tsegm(u,v) is a polygonal curve whose segments, oriented from uuu to vvv, have directions eK1,…,eKℓe^{K_1},\dots,e^{K_\ell}eK1​,…,eKℓ​ with K1⊊⋯⊊KℓK_1\subsetneq\dots\subsetneq K_\ellK1​⊊⋯⊊Kℓ​ and ℓ≤d\ell\le dℓ≤d.
  3. Lemma 8 (p. 11). For a segment S=[u,v]S=[u,v]S=[u,v] in R+d\mathbb R^d_+R+d​ and t>1t>1t>1,
d∞(tsegm(log⁡tu,log⁡tv), log⁡tS)≤log⁡t2.d_\infty\big(\mathsf{tsegm}(\log_tu,\log_tv),\ \log_tS\big)\le\log_t2 .d∞​(tsegm(logt​u,logt​v), logt​S)≤logt​2.
  1. Lemma 11 (p. 13). For a d×dd\times dd×d matrix M\mathbf MM with monomial entries ±tαij\pm t^{\alpha_{ij}}±tαij​ and t>1t>1t>1, log⁡t∣det⁡M(t)∣\log_t|\det\mathbf M(t)|logt​∣detM(t)∣ and val⁡(det⁡M)\operatorname{val}(\det\mathbf M)val(detM) differ by at most log⁡td!\log_td!logt​d!; the lower bound holds once t≥(d!)1/η(M)t\ge(d!)^{1/\eta(\mathbf M)}t≥(d!)1/η(M).
  2. Proposition 20 (p. 19). The explicit recursion for xλx^\lambdaxλ gives the greatest point of the tropical polyhedron {x∈P′:x1≤λ}\{x\in\mathcal P':x_1\le\lambda\}{x∈P′:x1​≤λ}, where P′⊆T2r\mathcal P'\subseteq\mathbb T^{2r}P′⊆T2r is cut out by the tropicalized constraints (26) of LWr\mathbf{LW}_rLWr​.

Significance

The theorem shows that the iteration count of a large class of primal-dual log-barrier interior point methods cannot be bounded by any function of rrr that grows more slowly than 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1, uniformly in the data. The class includes the methods of Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise, Monteiro–Adler and Mizuno–Todd–Ye. No such method is strongly polynomial. The constraint matrix of LWr(t)\mathbf{LW}_r(t)LWr​(t) is fixed by rrr and ttt alone, so the bound concerns the combinatorial dimension, not the bit length. The only property of the method used is that its trajectory stays in Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​. The lower bound therefore applies to every method with that property, whatever rule chooses its steps.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of its tropical ingredients is known. A formalization would check the explicit threshold (36), which the paper derives in a few lines from bounds on Puiseux polyhedra. It would also produce reusable statements about tropical segments, the Funk and Hilbert metrics on Td\mathbb T^dTd, and determinants of monomial matrices.

Difficulty

Following the central path is not hard in principle: the obvious argument tracks the duality measure, which decreases by a constant factor per iteration in a neighborhood of the path. That argument gives only upper bounds. The lower bound requires showing that the neighborhood itself, for large ttt, is too thin to be crossed in a few straight steps, uniformly over every possible trajectory. The paper does this by passing to the limit t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ on logarithmic scale. The image of Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ under log⁡t\log_tlogt​ collapses onto a piecewise-linear tropical central path, and a segment of R2N\mathbb R^{2N}R2N becomes, up to log⁡t2\log_t2logt​2, a tropical segment. The tropical central path of LWr\mathbf{LW}_rLWr​ then has to be shown to need 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 tropical segments. The limit argument has to be made quantitative at a finite, explicit ttt. That is where the Puiseux-series machinery (Theorems 12, 15 and 19 of the paper) and the explicit constant enter.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated over R\mathbb RR and T\mathbb TT; the goal typechecks without the field of Puiseux series. A primal-dual point is an element of Rn×Rm×Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm×Rn×Rm. The dual equation is s−A⊤y=cs-A^\top y=cs−A⊤y=c with Mathlib's transpose, μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ divides by N=n+mN=n+mN=n+m (equal to 5r−15r-15r−1 for LWr=\mathbf{LW}^=_rLWr=​), and the wide neighborhood is one-sided. The instance matrix is generated from the paper's 1-based row and column numbers; Lean indices are 0-based. A polygonal curve is a map z:{0,…,p}→R2Nz:\{0,\dots,p\}\to\mathbb R^{2N}z:{0,…,p}→R2N with segment ℝ (z i) (z (i+1)) ⊆ N. The power 2r−12^{r-1}2r−1 in (36) is a natural-number power and the factorials are natural-number factorials. T\mathbb TT is WithBot ℝ, and distances that can be infinite take values in EReal, with the convention −∞+(+∞)=−∞-\infty+(+\infty)=-\infty−∞+(+∞)=−∞ encoded explicitly.

Two statements are repaired or restated. Lemma 11 is printed for all t>0t>0t>0, but its first inequality fails for 0<t<10<t<10<t<1 (for M=(t111)\mathbf M=\begin{pmatrix}t&1\\1&1\end{pmatrix}M=(t1​11​) at t=1/2t=1/2t=1/2), so it is stated for t>1t>1t>1. Lemma 8 makes explicit its implicit hypotheses t>1t>1t>1 and u,v≥0u,v\ge0u,v≥0. Proposition 20 is stated in the form its proof establishes, as the greatest point of a tropical polyhedron. Its identification with the valuation of the Puiseux central path is not part of the item. Monomial matrices are given by sign and exponent matrices, and the valuation of the determinant is computed from the permutation expansion.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: Nθ,t−∞\mathcal N^{-\infty}_{\theta,t}Nθ,t−∞​ is not empty, since the build includes a sorry-free proof that it contains an explicit point for r=1r=1r=1, t=2t=2t=2, θ=1/2\theta=1/2θ=1/2. A curve with p=0p=0p=0 cannot satisfy both duality-measure conditions, since t2>1t^2>1t2>1.

The paper's Puiseux-series results are not posed: Theorems 12, 15, 19 and 29, Propositions 14, 16, 21 and 28, Corollary 17, and the count γ([0,2])≥2r−1\gamma([0,2])\ge2^{r-1}γ([0,2])≥2r−1 of §6.2. They need a faithful model of the field of absolutely convergent generalized Puiseux series and of the tropical central path. Contributions of that infrastructure, and of these statements as further milestones, are welcome. So are proofs of the five milestones, which need no Puiseux series. Proposition 1, Lemma 5 and Proposition 20 are elementary, and Lemma 8 and Lemma 11 are estimates with explicit constants.

Selected references

  • X. Allamigeon, P. Benchimol, S. Gaubert, M. Joswig, Log-barrier interior point methods are not strongly polynomial, SIAM J. Appl. Algebra Geom. 2(1), 2018; arXiv:1708.01544v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.01544
  • A. Deza, T. Terlaky, Y. Zinchenko, Central path curvature and iteration-complexity for redundant Klee–Minty cubes, in Advances in Applied Mathematics and Global Optimization, Adv. Mech. Math. 17, Springer, 2009, pp. 223–256. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75714-8
  • S. Smale, Mathematical problems for the next century, Math. Intelligencer 20(2), 1998, 7–15; reprinted in Mathematics: Frontiers and Perspectives, AMS, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03025291
  • M. Develin, B. Sturmfels, Tropical convexity, Doc. Math. 9, 2004. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0308254
  • S. J. Wright, Primal-Dual Interior-Point Methods, SIAM, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971453
  • X. Allamigeon, S. Gaubert, M. Skomra, Tropical spectrahedra, Discrete Comput. Geom. 63, 2020; arXiv:1610.06746. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.06746
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization V: The Optimal First Stage over a Dominating Simplex Is a 4√m-ApproximationResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two steps: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain right-hand side bbb is revealed, and a second-stage decision y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen afterwards, with the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU to be minimized. Problems of this form arise in capacity planning, network design and inventory control, where the first stage is an investment and the second stage a recourse. Computing the fully adaptable optimum is hard in general, so tractable restrictions are used in practice, most prominently affine policies y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q (Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer, Nemirovski, Math. Program. 2004).

Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. Ser. A, DOI 10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4) characterize how well affine policies perform. Their Section 5 shows a factor O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) when the first-stage matrix satisfies A≥0A\ge 0A≥0. Section 6, the subject of this mission, drops the sign condition on AAA: it constructs, from U\mathcal UU, a polytope U0\mathcal U^0U0 with at most m+1m+1m+1 vertices that dominates U\mathcal UU, and shows that an optimal first stage for U0\mathcal U^0U0 is a 4m4\sqrt m4m​-approximate first stage for the original problem.

Timeline. Ben-Tal et al. (2004) introduced affinely adjustable robust counterparts. Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) proved optimality of affine policies for one-dimensional multistage problems. Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Oper. Res. 2010) analysed static robust solutions for two-stage problems. The present paper (received 2009, published 2011) gives the Θ(m1/2)\Theta(m^{1/2})Θ(m1/2) picture for affine policies and the general-case first-stage approximation formalized here.

Setting

Fix matrices A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​ and cost vectors c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​. The uncertainty set U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ is convex, compact and full-dimensional. A feasible solution of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) is a pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with x≥0x\ge0x≥0 and, for every b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U, y(b)≥0y(b)\ge0y(b)≥0 and Ax+By(b)≥bAx+By(b)\ge bAx+By(b)≥b, componentwise. Its worst-case cost is sup⁡b∈U cTx+dTy(b)\sup_{b\in\mathcal U}\, c^Tx+d^Ty(b)supb∈U​cTx+dTy(b), and the fully adaptable optimum is

zAdapt(U)=inf⁡(x,y) feasible sup⁡b∈U cTx+dTy(b).z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)=\inf_{(x,y)\ \text{feasible}}\ \sup_{b\in\mathcal U}\ c^Tx+d^Ty(b).zAdapt​(U)=(x,y) feasibleinf​ b∈Usup​ cTx+dTy(b).

An optimal solution attains this value.

For j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m let μj=max⁡{bj:b∈U}\mu_j=\max\{b_j: b\in\mathcal U\}μj​=max{bj​:b∈U} and let βj∈U\beta^j\in\mathcal Uβj∈U be a maximizer, βjj=μj\beta^j_j=\mu_jβjj​=μj​ (display (38)). Algorithm A\mathcal AA (Fig. 1 of the paper) starts with the index set J1={1,…,m}J_1=\{1,\dots,m\}J1​={1,…,m}; while some b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has ∑j∈J1bj/μj>m\sum_{j\in J_1}b_j/\mu_j>\sqrt m∑j∈J1​​bj​/μj​>m​, it picks a maximizer uku^kuk of that scaled sum over U\mathcal UU, adds uku^kuk to a running total on the coordinates of J1J_1J1​, and removes from J1J_1J1​ every coordinate whose total has reached μj\mu_jμj​. It stops after KKK iterations and returns β=u1+⋯+uK\beta=u^1+\dots+u^Kβ=u1+⋯+uK. The dominating set is

U0=conv⁡{2m⋅β1,…,2m⋅βm, 2β}.(66)\mathcal U^0=\operatorname{conv}\{2\sqrt m\cdot\beta^1,\dots,2\sqrt m\cdot\beta^m,\ 2\beta\}.\tag{66}U0=conv{2m​⋅β1,…,2m​⋅βm, 2β}.(66)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

For every run of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, every choice of the maximizers βj\beta^jβj, and every optimal solution (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​) of ΠAdapt(U0)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)ΠAdapt​(U0),

∀b∈U  ∃y≥0:Ax~+By≥b,cTx~+dTy≤4m⋅zAdapt(U).\forall b\in\mathcal U\ \ \exists y\ge 0:\quad A\tilde x+By\ge b,\qquad c^T\tilde x+d^Ty\le 4\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).∀b∈U  ∃y≥0:Ax~+By≥b,cTx~+dTy≤4m​⋅zAdapt​(U).

The page states the factor as O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​); 4m4\sqrt m4m​ is the constant its proof establishes.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 12. U0\mathcal U^0U0 dominates U\mathcal UU: every b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U has some b′∈U0b'\in\mathcal U^0b′∈U0 with b≤b′b\le b'b≤b′.
  2. Lemma 13 (inequality). ΠAdapt(U0)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)ΠAdapt​(U0) is feasible with finite worst-case cost, and
zAdapt(U0)≤4m⋅zAdapt(U).z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)\le 4\sqrt m\cdot z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U).zAdapt​(U0)≤4m​⋅zAdapt​(U).
  1. The domination claim in the proof of Theorem 6. If VVV dominates WWW and (x~,y~)(\tilde x,\tilde y)(x~,y~​) is optimal for ΠAdapt(V)\Pi_{Adapt}(V)ΠAdapt​(V) with finite worst-case cost, then every b∈Wb\in Wb∈W can be served from x~\tilde xx~ at cost at most zAdapt(V)z_{Adapt}(V)zAdapt​(V).

Significance

The result gives a first-stage decision with a guarantee of order m\sqrt mm​ for two-stage problems with an arbitrary first-stage matrix, a setting where the affine-policy analysis of Section 5 does not apply. The decision is obtained from a problem whose uncertainty set has at most m+1m+1m+1 extreme points, so it reduces an adaptive problem over a general convex set to one over a polytope with few vertices. Together with the paper's lower bounds (Theorems 2 and 3, Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ) for affine policies), it places the general-case approximability of the first stage at the same order as the affine-policy gap.

The result is proved in the paper. It has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The formalization produces, beyond the theorem itself, an encoding of model (1) with values that are honest infima, a relational encoding of Algorithm A\mathcal AA usable for its termination and output properties, and a reusable domination lemma for two-stage problems. Mission IV of this series (the case A≥0A\ge0A≥0) formalizes Lemmas 9 and 10 on Algorithm A\mathcal AA, which the proofs here use.

Difficulty

The obvious argument replaces U\mathcal UU by a simple set that contains or dominates it, such as the box ∏j[0,μj]\prod_j[0,\mu_j]∏j​[0,μj​], and solves over that set. This loses a factor mmm, not m\sqrt mm​: for U=conv⁡{0,e1,…,em}\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}\{0,e_1,\dots,e_m\}U=conv{0,e1​,…,em​} with A=0A=0A=0, B=IB=IB=I, c=0c=0c=0, d=ed=ed=e, the optimum over U\mathcal UU is 111 while the optimum over the box is mmm. A dominating set with few vertices whose cost is only O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) times the original optimum has to be built from U\mathcal UU itself, and controlling the cost of its vertex 2β2\beta2β depends on the number KKK of iterations of Algorithm A\mathcal AA, which is bounded only through the potential argument of Lemma 10 in the paper.

A second difficulty is that zAdaptz_{Adapt}zAdapt​ is an infimum, not an attained minimum, over second-stage rules that are arbitrary functions; the cost comparison must work from near-optimal solutions of ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U).

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions on Fin m, matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ, and inequalities between vectors are componentwise. The paper's coordinate jjj is Fin index j−1j-1j−1. zAdapt(U)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U)zAdapt​(U) is the infimum of the set of bounds ttt such that some feasible (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) satisfies cTx+dTy(b)≤tc^Tx+d^Ty(b)\le tcTx+dTy(b)≤t for all b∈Ub\in\mathcal Ub∈U; this avoids a real supremum of a possibly unbounded worst case. An optimal solution is a feasible one that achieves every achievable bound. μ\muμ and the maximizers βj\beta^jβj enter the theorems as data with their defining properties. Algorithm A\mathcal AA is a relation on a choice sequence u1,u2,…u^1,u^2,\dotsu1,u2,…: the theorems hold for every run and every choice of maximizers, never for "some simplex dominating U\mathcal UU".

Standing assumptions of (1) carried by the goal and Lemma 13: c≥0c\ge0c≥0, d≥0d\ge0d≥0, U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​ convex, compact and with nonempty interior, and (1) feasible. There is no sign condition on AAA. Lemma 12 keeps only nonnegativity and full-dimensionality of U\mathcal UU; the domination claim is stated for arbitrary scenario sets VVV and WWW with VVV dominating WWW and assumes that the optimal solution over VVV has a finite worst-case cost.

The printed Lemma 13 also asserts zAff(U0)=zAdapt(U0)z_{Aff}(\mathcal U^0)=z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)zAff​(U0)=zAdapt​(U0) on the grounds that U0\mathcal U^0U0 is a simplex. Its m+1m+1m+1 generators need not be affinely independent, so this equality is not part of the mission; Theorem 6 does not use it.

A bound on zAdapt(U0)z_{Adapt}(\mathcal U^0)zAdapt​(U0) alone is not the goal: the goal requires, for each scenario of the original set U\mathcal UU, a feasible second stage completing the fixed first stage x~\tilde xx~ at the stated cost. Lemma 13 also asserts feasibility over U0\mathcal U^0U0 with a finite bound, so its inequality cannot hold through the value of an infimum over an empty set.

A complete development needs elementary facts about convex hulls of finitely many points (representation by convex weights), the properties of Algorithm A\mathcal AA (its output bound and termination, Lemmas 9 and 10 of the paper), and ε\varepsilonε-approximation arguments for infima. The encoding of model (1) and of Algorithm A\mathcal AA is shared with the other missions of this series. Contributions of these supporting lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Math. Program. Ser. A, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Math. Program. 99, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 35, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power of robust solutions in two-stage stochastic and adaptive optimization problems, Math. Oper. Res. 35, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0440
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On the Power and Limitations of Affine Policies in Two-Stage Adaptive Optimization III: The Best Affine Policy Can Cost More Than m^(1/2−δ)/4 Times the Fully Adaptable OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage adaptive optimization models decisions taken in two steps: a first-stage decision xxx is fixed before an uncertain right-hand side bbb is revealed, and a second-stage recourse y(b)y(b)y(b) is chosen afterwards, with the worst case over an uncertainty set U\mathcal UU to be minimized. The fully-adaptable problem, in which yyy may be an arbitrary function of bbb, is intractable in general. The standard tractable restriction, introduced by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (2004), requires yyy to be an affine policy y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q; it turns the problem into a single convex program and is used throughout robust inventory, network design and energy planning.

How much is lost by this restriction? Bertsimas and Goyal (Math. Program. 2012) answer the question for problems with a nonnegative constraint matrix. On one side, affine policies are optimal when U\mathcal UU is a simplex, and are within a factor O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) of the optimum on every instance of the class, where mmm is the number of constraints. On the other side, the bound is nearly tight: Section 4 of the paper constructs an instance on which the best affine policy costs Ω(m1/2−δ)\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})Ω(m1/2−δ) times the fully-adaptable optimum, for any δ>0\delta>0δ>0. This mission formalizes that lower bound.

Timeline: Ben-Tal et al. (2004) propose affinely adjustable robust counterparts; Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (2010) prove optimality of affine policies for one-dimensional multistage problems; Bertsimas and Goyal (2012) give the O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) upper bound and the matching lower-bound example formalized here.

Setting

The two-stage problem ΠAdapt(U)\Pi_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)ΠAdapt​(U) has data A∈Rm×n1A\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_1}A∈Rm×n1​, B∈Rm×n2B\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_2}B∈Rm×n2​, c∈R+n1c\in\mathbb R^{n_1}_+c∈R+n1​​, d∈R+n2d\in\mathbb R^{n_2}_+d∈R+n2​​ and U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​:

zAdapt(U)=min⁡x, y(⋅) c⊤x+max⁡b∈Ud⊤y(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b, x≥0, y(b)≥0  ∀b∈U.z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)=\min_{x,\,y(\cdot)}\ c^\top x+\max_{b\in\mathcal U}d^\top y(b)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Ax+By(b)\ge b,\ x\ge0,\ y(b)\ge0\ \ \forall b\in\mathcal U .zAdapt​(U)=x,y(⋅)min​ c⊤x+b∈Umax​d⊤y(b)s.t.Ax+By(b)≥b, x≥0, y(b)≥0  ∀b∈U.

The value zAff(U)z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U) is the same minimum over policies of the form y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q; such a policy must be nonnegative on all of U\mathcal UU.

The large-gap instance I\mathcal II of display (19) has n1=n2=mn_1=n_2=mn1​=n2​=m, a parameter δ>0\delta>0δ>0 with mδ>200m^\delta>200mδ>200 (condition (18)), and

θ0=1m(1−δ)/2,r=⌈m1−δ⌉,\theta_0=\frac{1}{m^{(1-\delta)/2}},\qquad r=\lceil m^{1-\delta}\rceil,θ0​=m(1−δ)/21​,r=⌈m1−δ⌉, c=0,d=e=(1,…,1)⊤,A=0,Bij={1,i=j,θ0,i≠j,c=0,\quad d=e=(1,\dots,1)^\top,\quad A=0,\quad B_{ij}=\begin{cases}1,&i=j,\\ \theta_0,&i\ne j,\end{cases}c=0,d=e=(1,…,1)⊤,A=0,Bij​={1,θ0​,​i=j,i=j,​ U=conv⁡({0, e1,…,em, 1me}∪{θ01S: ∣S∣=r}),\mathcal U=\operatorname{conv}\Bigl(\{0,\ e_1,\dots,e_m,\ \tfrac{1}{\sqrt m}e\}\cup\{\theta_0\mathbf 1_S:\ |S|=r\}\Bigr),U=conv({0, e1​,…,em​, m​1​e}∪{θ0​1S​: ∣S∣=r}),

where eje_jej​ are the unit vectors and 1S\mathbf 1_S1S​ is the indicator vector of a set SSS of coordinates. A permutation σ\sigmaσ of the coordinates acts on vectors by bσ=(bσ(1),…,bσ(m))b^\sigma=(b_{\sigma(1)},\dots,b_{\sigma(m)})bσ=(bσ(1)​,…,bσ(m)​) and on matrices by Pijσ=Pσ(i),σ(j)P^\sigma_{ij}=P_{\sigma(i),\sigma(j)}Pijσ​=Pσ(i),σ(j)​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3, explicit form

zAff(U)>m1/2−δ4⋅zAdapt(U)for all δ>0 and m with mδ>200.z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)>\frac{m^{1/2-\delta}}{4}\cdot z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)\qquad\text{for all }\delta>0\text{ and }m\text{ with }m^\delta>200 .zAff​(U)>4m1/2−δ​⋅zAdapt​(U)for all δ>0 and m with mδ>200.

The paper writes zAff(U)=Ω(m1/2−δ)⋅zAdapt(U)z_{\mathrm{Aff}}(\mathcal U)=\Omega(m^{1/2-\delta})\cdot z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)zAff​(U)=Ω(m1/2−δ)⋅zAdapt​(U); the constant 1/41/41/4 is the one the proof establishes, so the explicit statement is the stronger one.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4: zAdapt(U)≤1z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}(\mathcal U)\le1zAdapt​(U)≤1, with a feasible solution attaining cost at most 111.
  2. Lemma 5: U\mathcal UU is permutation-invariant under every σ∈Sm\sigma\in S^mσ∈Sm.
  3. Lemma 6: the permuted instance I(σ)\mathcal I(\sigma)I(σ) of (22) equals I\mathcal II.
  4. Lemma 7: if y(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+qy(b)=Pb+q is an optimal affine solution, so is yσ(b)=Pσb+qσy^\sigma(b)=P^\sigma b+q^\sigmayσ(b)=Pσb+qσ.
  5. Lemma 8: some optimal affine solution has P^ij=μ\hat P_{ij}=\muP^ij​=μ (i≠ji\ne ji=j), P^jj=θ\hat P_{jj}=\thetaP^jj​=θ, q^j=λ\hat q_j=\lambdaq^​j​=λ.
  6. The three Claims of the proof of Theorem 3: for a symmetric feasible affine policy with worst-case cost at most m1/2−δ/4m^{1/2-\delta}/4m1/2−δ/4, one has 0≤λ≤m−1/2−δ0\le\lambda\le m^{-1/2-\delta}0≤λ≤m−1/2−δ, θ≥1/3\theta\ge1/3θ≥1/3, and −m−1−δ/2≤μ<0-m^{-1-\delta/2}\le\mu<0−m−1−δ/2≤μ<0.

Significance

The result shows that the O(m)O(\sqrt m)O(m​) approximation guarantee for affine policies on problems with A≥0A\ge0A≥0 (Theorem 4 of the same paper) cannot be improved beyond a factor mδm^{\delta}mδ, so the uncertainty set that looks like a portion of the unit sphere in the nonnegative orthant is essentially the worst case for affine recourse. It also explains why later work moved to piecewise-affine and finitely adaptable policies to close the gap. The example satisfies c,d≥0c,d\ge0c,d≥0, A,B≥0A,B\ge0A,B≥0 and U⊆R+m\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^m_+U⊆R+m​, so the lower bound applies to every larger problem class.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no machine-checked version exists. A formalization adds checked statements of the symmetrization argument (an optimal affine policy may be taken invariant under the symmetry group of the instance), which applies to any symmetric robust linear program, and a checked derivation of the explicit constant.

Difficulty

The upper bound zAdapt≤1z_{\mathrm{Adapt}}\le1zAdapt​≤1 is a direct construction. The difficulty lies in the lower bound on zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​, which must hold for every affine policy, a family with m2+mm^2+mm2+m free parameters. Bounding the cost of a policy at a few chosen points of U\mathcal UU does not suffice without first reducing the parameters, and the reduction requires that an optimal affine solution exists (attainment of the minimum over an unbounded parameter set) and that averaging over the symmetric group preserves both feasibility and optimality. The remaining argument balances three different generators of U\mathcal UU against each other, and the exponents of mmm must be tracked exactly through ceilings and real powers.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ with the componentwise order and 0-based indices; matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin m) ℝ. The values zAdaptz_{\mathrm{Adapt}}zAdapt​ and zAffz_{\mathrm{Aff}}zAff​ are infima of the sets of worst-case cost bounds achieved by feasible solutions (epigraph form), so they do not rely on a supremum of a possibly unbounded function. Affine policies must be nonnegative on U\mathcal UU. Optimal solutions are defined as feasible solutions whose worst-case cost is bounded by every achievable bound, so Lemma 8 asserts attainment. Powers mam^{a}ma are real powers; θ0=1/m(1−δ)/2\theta_0=1/m^{(1-\delta)/2}θ0​=1/m(1−δ)/2 and r=⌈m1−δ⌉r=\lceil m^{1-\delta}\rceilr=⌈m1−δ⌉ exactly as on the page. U\mathcal UU is the convex hull of its listed generators; the generator count NNN printed in (19) plays no role.

The parameter δ\deltaδ is not restricted beyond δ>0\delta>0δ>0 and mδ>200m^\delta>200mδ>200, as in the paper. Lemma 4's proof on the page uses δ≤1\delta\le1δ≤1; the statement is kept for all δ>0\delta>0δ>0, where it remains true with a different witness. The Claims are stated for any symmetric feasible affine policy with cost at most m1/2−δ/4m^{1/2-\delta}/4m1/2−δ/4; their hypotheses are jointly unsatisfiable by Theorem 3, which is inherent in steps of a proof by contradiction.

A trivializing formalization is excluded: the goal mentions only the instance data and the two optimal values, not the symmetric parameters μ,θ,λ\mu,\theta,\lambdaμ,θ,λ, and the nonemptiness of the feasible sets is established by Lemma 4 and by the existence of a feasible affine policy, so neither value is a junk infimum of an empty set.

A complete development needs: convex hulls of finite point sets in Rm\mathbb R^mRm and their extreme points; the action of SmS^mSm by coordinate permutation; averaging over the finite group SmS^mSm; and existence of minimizers for linear programs over a polytope. The symmetrization lemmas (5–8) are reusable for other symmetric robust problems. Proofs of any milestone, including partial infrastructure for linear-programming attainment, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming Ser. A 134 (2012) 491–531. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99 (2004) 351–376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of affine policies in multistage robust optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 35 (2010) 363–394. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
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Optimality of Affine Policies in Multistage Robust Optimization: In One-Dimensional Constrained Min-Max Control, Disturbance-Affine Policies with Affine Stage Costs Attain the Optimal ValueResearch Paper

Motivation

Multistage robust optimization chooses decisions over time while an adversary picks the uncertain data from a known set; every later decision may react to what has been observed. The exact problem is a nested min-max over functions of the past, and is intractable in general. The standard workaround, proposed by Ben-Tal, Goryashko, Guslitzer and Nemirovski (Math. Program. 2004), restricts every decision to an affine function of the observed disturbances. The restricted problem is a single convex (often linear) program, which is why disturbance-affine policies are used throughout robust control, inventory management and model predictive control. The price is suboptimality, and before this paper there was no nontrivial multistage problem in which that price was known to be zero.

Bertsimas, Iancu and Parrilo (arXiv:0904.3986, 2009; Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 2010) proved that for one-dimensional linear dynamics with box constraints on controls and disturbances, linear control costs and convex state costs, disturbance-affine policies are exactly optimal. Their companion paper (Bertsimas & Goyal, Math. Program. 2012) shows how poorly affine policies can perform in other settings, so the one-dimensional result marks one side of the boundary between models where affine policies are exact and models where they are not.

Setting

Fix a horizon TTT and an initial state x1∈Rx_1\in\mathbb Rx1​∈R. For each stage k=1,…,Tk=1,\dots,Tk=1,…,T there are a per-unit control cost ck≥0c_k\ge0ck​≥0, control bounds Lk≤UkL_k\le U_kLk​≤Uk​, disturbance bounds w‾k≤w‾k\underline w_k\le\overline w_kw​k​≤wk​, and a state cost hk:R→Rh_k:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rhk​:R→R that is convex and coercive. The state evolves as

xk+1=xk+uk+wk,uk∈[Lk,Uk],wk∈Wk=[w‾k,w‾k].x_{k+1}=x_k+u_k+w_k,\qquad u_k\in[L_k,U_k],\qquad w_k\in\mathcal W_k=[\underline w_k,\overline w_k].xk+1​=xk​+uk​+wk​,uk​∈[Lk​,Uk​],wk​∈Wk​=[w​k​,wk​].

The controller chooses uku_kuk​ after seeing xkx_kxk​; the adversary then chooses wkw_kwk​. The min-max value JmMJ_{mM}JmM​ is the value of the nested problem min⁡u1[c1u1+max⁡w1[h1(x2)+min⁡u2[⋯ ]]]\min_{u_1}[c_1u_1+\max_{w_1}[h_1(x_2)+\min_{u_2}[\cdots]]]minu1​​[c1​u1​+maxw1​​[h1​(x2​)+minu2​​[⋯]]], computed by the Bellman recursion with JT+1∗≡0J^*_{T+1}\equiv0JT+1∗​≡0:

gk(y)=max⁡w∈Wk[hk(y+w)+Jk+1∗(y+w)],Jk∗(x)=min⁡Lk≤u≤Uk[cku+gk(x+u)],JmM=J1∗(x1).g_k(y)=\max_{w\in\mathcal W_k}\big[h_k(y+w)+J^*_{k+1}(y+w)\big],\qquad J^*_k(x)=\min_{L_k\le u\le U_k}\big[c_ku+g_k(x+u)\big],\qquad J_{mM}=J^*_1(x_1).gk​(y)=w∈Wk​max​[hk​(y+w)+Jk+1∗​(y+w)],Jk∗​(x)=Lk​≤u≤Uk​min​[ck​u+gk​(x+u)],JmM​=J1∗​(x1​).

An affine control policy and an affine running cost at stage kkk are

qk(w)=qk,0+∑t=1k−1qk,twt,zk(w)=zk,0+∑t=1kzk,twt,q_k(w)=q_{k,0}+\sum_{t=1}^{k-1}q_{k,t}w_t,\qquad z_k(w)=z_{k,0}+\sum_{t=1}^{k}z_{k,t}w_t,qk​(w)=qk,0​+t=1∑k−1​qk,t​wt​,zk​(w)=zk,0​+t=1∑k​zk,t​wt​,

so qkq_kqk​ sees the disturbances before stage kkk and zkz_kzk​ those up to stage kkk. Under these policies the state after stage kkk is x1+∑t≤k(qt(w)+wt)x_1+\sum_{t\le k}(q_t(w)+w_t)x1​+∑t≤k​(qt​(w)+wt​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There exist affine policies qkq_kqk​ and affine costs zkz_kzk​ such that, for every k=1,…,Tk=1,\dots,Tk=1,…,T,

Lk≤qk(w)≤Uk∀w∈W1×⋯×Wk−1,L_k\le q_k(w)\le U_k\quad\forall w\in\mathcal W_1\times\dots\times\mathcal W_{k-1},Lk​≤qk​(w)≤Uk​∀w∈W1​×⋯×Wk−1​, zk(w)≥hk(x1+∑t=1k(qt(w)+wt))∀w∈W1×⋯×Wk,z_k(w)\ge h_k\Big(x_1+\sum_{t=1}^k(q_t(w)+w_t)\Big)\quad\forall w\in\mathcal W_1\times\dots\times\mathcal W_k,zk​(w)≥hk​(x1​+t=1∑k​(qt​(w)+wt​))∀w∈W1​×⋯×Wk​, JmM=max⁡w1,…,wk[∑t=1k(ctqt(w)+zt(w))+Jk+1∗(x1+∑t=1k(qt(w)+wt))].J_{mM}=\max_{w_1,\dots,w_k}\Big[\sum_{t=1}^k\big(c_tq_t(w)+z_t(w)\big)+J^*_{k+1}\Big(x_1+\sum_{t=1}^k(q_t(w)+w_t)\Big)\Big].JmM​=w1​,…,wk​max​[t=1∑k​(ct​qt​(w)+zt​(w))+Jk+1∗​(x1​+t=1∑k​(qt​(w)+wt​))].

At k=Tk=Tk=T this says that affine policies are robustly feasible and attain the min-max value.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1 (with (8)–(9), P2): Jk∗J^*_kJk∗​ and gkg_kgk​ are convex, and the optimal control is the clamp max⁡(Lk,min⁡(Uk,y∗−x))\max(L_k,\min(U_k,y^*-x))max(Lk​,min(Uk​,y∗−x)) for a minimizer y∗y^*y∗ of cky+gk(y)c_ky+g_k(y)ck​y+gk​(y).
  2. P3: the clamp is non-increasing and 1-Lipschitz.
  3. Lemma 4.1: the maximum of θ1+f(θ2)\theta_1+f(\theta_2)θ1​+f(θ2​), fff convex, over a planar zonogon Θ=π([0,1]k)\Theta=\pi([0,1]^k)Θ=π([0,1]k) is attained at one of the k+1k+1k+1 vertices on its right side.
  4. Corollary 4.1: the maximum of θ1+f(θ2)\theta_1+f(\theta_2)θ1​+f(θ2​) is unchanged when a polygon is replaced by its convex hull, its vertex set, its right side, or the zonogon hull of its vertices.
  5. Lemma 4.2: after the optimal control is applied, the worst case is reached on the right side of conv⁡{v~0,…,v~k}\operatorname{conv}\{\tilde v_0,\dots,\tilde v_k\}conv{v~0​,…,v~k​}.
  6. Lemma 4.4: the matching-and-alignment system (37) defining the affine controller is feasible, and its solutions satisfy −bi≤qi≤0-b_i\le q_i\le0−bi​≤qi​≤0 and L≤q(w)≤UL\le q(w)\le UL≤q(w)≤U.
  7. Lemma 4.8 and Lemma 4.9: the affine cost defined by system (51)–(53) dominates the convex cost, first at the hypercube vertices, then on the whole hypercube.

Significance

The theorem is one of the few exact optimality results for affine policies in multistage robust optimization. Combined with linear programming duality it has a computational corollary: when the hkh_khk​ are piecewise affine, an optimal policy for the full min-max problem is obtained from a single linear program (the affinely adjustable robust counterpart, p. 5), instead of a dynamic program over a continuous state. The construction also shows what is special about one dimension: the relevant uncertainty enters only through a planar zonogon, whose right side has at most k+1k+1k+1 vertices, matching the k+1k+1k+1 coefficients of an affine policy.

The result is proved in the literature, not formalized; no machine-checked proof of it, or of the zonogon lemmas it uses, is known. The formalization adds a checked proof of the main theorem and of the planar convexity facts (Lemma 4.1, Corollary 4.1) that are reusable for other zonotope arguments. It also closes the gaps the preprint leaves to the reader: Assumption 2 is removed by an infinitesimal perturbation argument, footnote 4 assumes a unique minimizer of cky+gk(y)c_ky+g_k(y)ck​y+gk​(y), and Lemma 4.3 is proved in one sub-case only.

Difficulty

Dynamic programming gives the optimal control as a function of the current state, uk∗(xk)u^*_k(x_k)uk∗​(xk​), which is piecewise affine in xkx_kxk​ with up to three pieces. Since xkx_kxk​ is affine in past disturbances, the obvious idea is to substitute; but the composition is piecewise affine, not affine, in the disturbances, and no single affine function reproduces it. An affine policy is necessarily suboptimal at some disturbance sequences. The theorem asserts only that it is never suboptimal at the worst case, and that the excess cost it causes can be absorbed into an affine cost zkz_kzk​ that still dominates hkh_khk​. Establishing this requires controlling where a convex objective is maximized over a zonogon, and showing that the affine controller and the affine cost can be chosen to reproduce exactly the right-side vertices that matter, at every stage, while staying feasible. A naive matching of all 2k2^k2k vertices of the disturbance box is overdetermined.

Formalization scope

Stages are indexed by Fin T (0-based). The model is the reduced form (DP) of §2, with dynamics coefficients equal to 1; the paper notes that this is without loss of generality. The standing hypotheses are those of Problem 1.1 (ck≥0c_k\ge0ck​≥0, hkh_khk​ convex and coercive) plus two disclosed additions, Lk≤UkL_k\le U_kLk​≤Uk​ and w‾k≤w‾k\underline w_k\le\overline w_kw​k​≤wk​: the page writes both as intervals but does not say they are nonempty. Jk∗J^*_kJk∗​ is defined by the Bellman recursion with sSup/sInf over images of nonempty compact intervals of continuous functions, so the values are attained maxima and minima. The max in (14) is stated with IsGreatest, which asserts attainment.

The goal carries none of the proof's normalizations (Assumptions 1–3 of p. 10, the unique minimizer of footnote 4). The milestones of §4 are stated in the paper's simplified notation: the unit hypercube, generators ordered as in (32) (cross-multiplied), the clamp form of the optimal control law (the printed (8) has misprinted thresholds), and, where the paper divides by bib_ibi​, the hypothesis bi>0b_i>0bi​>0. Lemma 4.4 takes Lemma 4.3's conclusions as hypotheses; Lemmas 4.8–4.9 take system (51)–(53) (with two misprints of (53) corrected) as hypotheses instead of "computed by Algorithm 2". Every fraction in a system is cross-multiplied.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. (14) uses a maximum over a nonempty box of a continuous function, with the true Jk+1∗J^*_{k+1}Jk+1∗​. The policies read only past disturbances (sums over t<kt<kt<k, resp. t≤kt\le kt≤k). JmMJ_{mM}JmM​ is the Bellman value over all state-feedback controls, not the value of the affine problem.

The development needs convexity of value functions under partial minimization and maximization, extreme points of planar polygons, and maxima of convex functions over polytopes. Contributions of independent planar-geometry lemmas are welcome, as are proofs of Lemma 4.3 (not stated here) and of the remaining construction lemmas 4.5–4.7.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, D. A. Iancu, P. A. Parrilo, Optimality of Affine Policies in Multi-stage Robust Optimization, arXiv:0904.3986v1, 2009; Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2):363–394, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0904.3986, https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0444
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Goryashko, E. Guslitzer, A. Nemirovski, Adjustable robust solutions of uncertain linear programs, Mathematical Programming 99(2):351–376, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0454-y
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Goyal, On the power and limitations of affine policies in two-stage adaptive optimization, Mathematical Programming 134(2):491–531, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0444-4
  • G. M. Ziegler, Lectures on Polytopes, Springer GTM 152, 1995 (Chapter 7, zonotopes). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8431-1
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Operations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments I: Revenue-Ordered Assortments Earn OPT/(1 + ln(r_k/r_1)) Under Any Regular Choice ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer, an airline or an online platform decides which products to show a customer. Showing more is not always better: a customer who would have bought an expensive product may switch to a cheap one once it is offered. The assortment problem asks for the set of products that maximises expected revenue, given a model of how customers choose. It is a central problem of revenue management (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004), and it is NP-hard even for mixtures of two multinomial logit models (Rusmevichientong, Shmoys, Tong and Topaloglu, 2014).

The standard heuristic in practice is revenue-ordered assortments: sort the products by price and only consider the sets consisting of the most expensive products down to some threshold. It is optimal under the multinomial logit model (Talluri and van Ryzin, 2004), but not in general. Berbeglia and Joret (arXiv:1606.01371) ask how much revenue the heuristic can lose under every reasonable choice model, and answer with guarantees that depend only on the prices.

Timeline:

  • 2004: Talluri and van Ryzin prove revenue-ordered assortments optimal under the multinomial logit model.
  • 2014: Rusmevichientong et al. show NP-hardness of the assortment problem for mixtures of logits, and prove that revenue-ordered assortments earn at least OPT/(e(1+ln⁡(rk/r1)))\mathrm{OPT}/(e(1+\ln(r_k/r_1)))OPT/(e(1+ln(rk​/r1​))) under mixed logit models.
  • 2016–2019: Berbeglia and Joret prove the guarantees 1/k1/k1/k and 1/(1+ln⁡(rk/r1))1/(1+\ln(r_k/r_1))1/(1+ln(rk​/r1​)) under any regular choice model and show them tight (arXiv v1 2016, v3 2019; Algorithmica 2020). Aouad, Farias, Levi and Segev (2018) show that under random utility models no efficient algorithm does essentially better than these ratios.

Setting

There is a finite nonempty set C\mathcal CC of products. For a choice set S⊆CS\subseteq\mathcal CS⊆C, P(x,S)\mathcal P(x,S)P(x,S) is the probability that a customer offered SSS buys product xxx, and P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S) is the probability that the customer buys nothing. The system P\mathcal PP is a regular discrete choice model if

  1. P(x,S)≥0\mathcal P(x,S)\ge0P(x,S)≥0 for every x∈C∪{0}x\in\mathcal C\cup\{0\}x∈C∪{0};
  2. P(x,S)=0\mathcal P(x,S)=0P(x,S)=0 whenever x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S;
  3. ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤1\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le1∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤1;
  4. P(x,S)≥P(x,S′)\mathcal P(x,S)\ge\mathcal P(x,S')P(x,S)≥P(x,S′) whenever S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′ and x∈S∪{0}x\in S\cup\{0\}x∈S∪{0}.

Axiom 4, regularity, says that adding products never makes a given product, or leaving without buying, more likely. Every random utility model is regular.

Each product has a positive price r(x)>0r(x)>0r(x)>0. The revenue of SSS is rev⁡(S)=∑x∈SP(x,S) r(x)\operatorname{rev}(S)=\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\,r(x)rev(S)=∑x∈S​P(x,S)r(x), and OPT=max⁡S⊆Crev⁡(S)\mathrm{OPT}=\max_{S\subseteq\mathcal C}\operatorname{rev}(S)OPT=maxS⊆C​rev(S). Let 0<r1<⋯<rk0<r_1<\cdots<r_k0<r1​<⋯<rk​ be the distinct prices, so kkk counts price levels and not products, and set r0=0r_0=0r0​=0. The revenue-ordered assortments are Si={x∈C:r(x)≥ri}S_i=\{x\in\mathcal C : r(x)\ge r_i\}Si​={x∈C:r(x)≥ri​}, i=1,…,ki=1,\dots,ki=1,…,k, and the heuristic earns

RO=max⁡1≤i≤krev⁡(Si).\mathrm{RO}=\max_{1\le i\le k}\operatorname{rev}(S_i).RO=1≤i≤kmax​rev(Si​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

OPT  ≤  (∑i=1kri−ri−1ri) ROand∑i=1kri−ri−1ri  ≤  1+ln⁡rkr1.\mathrm{OPT}\;\le\;\Big(\sum_{i=1}^{k}\frac{r_i-r_{i-1}}{r_i}\Big)\,\mathrm{RO} \qquad\text{and}\qquad \sum_{i=1}^{k}\frac{r_i-r_{i-1}}{r_i}\;\le\;1+\ln\frac{r_k}{r_1}.OPT≤(i=1∑k​ri​ri​−ri−1​​)ROandi=1∑k​ri​ri​−ri−1​​≤1+lnr1​rk​​.

The goal fixes no constant beyond the paper's own quantities. Both parts are required: the sum form is the sharper bound, and the paper shows it is attained (Theorem 3.4, a later mission of this series).

Milestones

  • Lemma 2.1: ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤∑x∈S′P(x,S′)\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le\sum_{x\in S'}\mathcal P(x,S')∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤∑x∈S′​P(x,S′) for S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′.
  • Inequality (5): rev⁡(Si)≥ri∑x∈S∗∩SiP(x,S∗)\operatorname{rev}(S_i)\ge r_i\sum_{x\in S^*\cap S_i}\mathcal P(x,S^*)rev(Si​)≥ri​∑x∈S∗∩Si​​P(x,S∗) for every S∗S^*S∗ and i∈[k]i\in[k]i∈[k].
  • Theorem 3.1: OPT≤k⋅RO\mathrm{OPT}\le k\cdot\mathrm{RO}OPT≤k⋅RO.
  • Rearrangement (proof of Theorem 3.2): rev⁡(S∗)=∑ℓ(rℓ−rℓ−1)∑x∈S∗∩SℓP(x,S∗)\operatorname{rev}(S^*)=\sum_{\ell}(r_\ell-r_{\ell-1})\sum_{x\in S^*\cap S_\ell}\mathcal P(x,S^*)rev(S∗)=∑ℓ​(rℓ​−rℓ−1​)∑x∈S∗∩Sℓ​​P(x,S∗), and rev⁡(S∗)≤∑ℓrℓ−rℓ−1rℓrev⁡(Sℓ)\operatorname{rev}(S^*)\le\sum_\ell\frac{r_\ell-r_{\ell-1}}{r_\ell}\operatorname{rev}(S_\ell)rev(S∗)≤∑ℓ​rℓ​rℓ​−rℓ−1​​rev(Sℓ​).
  • Logarithmic bound: ∑ℓ=1kaℓ−aℓ−1aℓ≤1+ln⁡(ak/a1)\sum_{\ell=1}^k\frac{a_\ell-a_{\ell-1}}{a_\ell}\le1+\ln(a_k/a_1)∑ℓ=1k​aℓ​aℓ​−aℓ−1​​≤1+ln(ak​/a1​) for 0=a0<a1<⋯<ak0=a_0<a_1<\cdots<a_k0=a0​<a1​<⋯<ak​.

Significance

The theorem shows that a pricing-only quantity controls the loss of the most common heuristic in revenue management, uniformly over all regular choice models, including every random utility model, mixtures of logits and Markov chain models. Combined with the hardness result of Aouad et al., it shows that revenue-ordered assortments achieve essentially the best ratio, as a function of kkk or of rk/r1r_k/r_1rk​/r1​, that an efficient algorithm can achieve. The same analysis transfers to the envy-free pricing and Stackelberg problems studied in the later sections of the paper.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a Lean formalization of regular choice models, the revenue-ordered heuristic and its two guarantees, on which the paper's tightness examples, the purchase-probability bound (Theorem 3.3) and the applications to pricing can build.

Difficulty

The argument is short, but two points are easy to get wrong. First, revenues of SiS_iSi​ and of an optimal S∗S^*S∗ involve choice probabilities evaluated at different sets, so the comparison must pass through S∗∩SiS^*\cap S_iS∗∩Si​, using regularity once for products and once for the no-purchase option. A model that only assumes regularity for products does not satisfy the theorem. Second, the bound runs over distinct price levels, not products, and the first summand uses the convention r0=0r_0=0r0​=0; indexing by products or dropping r0r_0r0​ gives a different quantity. The comparison of the sum with ln⁡(rk/r1)\ln(r_k/r_1)ln(rk​/r1​) is a Riemann-sum estimate for ∫dt/t\int dt/t∫dt/t and needs a real-analysis lemma not phrased this way in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

  • Products are a finite nonempty type C with decidable equality; choice sets are Finset C. The choice probabilities are P : C → Finset C → ℝ, defined on all pairs. The no-purchase option is not a product: P(0,S)\mathcal P(0,S)P(0,S) is the derived quantity noPurchase P S = 1 - ∑ x ∈ S, P x S.
  • IsRegular P carries axioms (i)–(iv), with (i) and (iv) each split into a product case and a no-purchase case. The no-purchase case of (i) is redundant with (iii) and is kept to match the page.
  • r : C → ℝ with the hypothesis ∀ x, 0 < r x. revenue P r S is rev⁡(S)\operatorname{rev}(S)rev(S) and opt P r is the maximum over all Finset C (Finset.sup'), including the empty set.
  • Price levels are 1-based: level r i is rir_iri​ for 1≤i≤k1\le i\le k1≤i≤k and level r 0 = 0; numVals r is kkk, the number of distinct values. roSet r i is SiS_iSi​; roValue P r is the maximum over i∈{1,…,k}i\in\{1,\dots,k\}i∈{1,…,k} only.
  • Approximation guarantees are stated in product form, OPT≤D⋅RO\mathrm{OPT}\le D\cdot\mathrm{RO}OPT≤D⋅RO, never as a ratio. ln⁡\lnln is Real.log, applied to rk/r1≥1r_k/r_1\ge1rk​/r1​≥1.
  • Ruled out: a maximum over all subsets in place of RO\mathrm{RO}RO (which makes the bound trivial), a regularity axiom without its no-purchase case, the logarithmic form alone in place of the sum form, and any specific choice model (logit, Markov chain, random utility) in place of an arbitrary regular P\mathcal PP.

Needed infrastructure: finite sums over price levels and summation by parts, the comparison of (b−a)/b(b-a)/b(b−a)/b with ln⁡(b/a)\ln(b/a)ln(b/a), and the sorted enumeration of a finite set of reals (Finset.orderEmbOfFin). The regular model and the revenue-ordered sets are shared with the other missions of this series. Contributions of any milestone, alternative proofs of the logarithmic bound, and proofs that specific choice models are regular are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Berbeglia and G. Joret, Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments, arXiv:1606.01371v3, 2019; Algorithmica 82, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.01371
  • K. Talluri and G. van Ryzin, Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior, Management Science 50(1), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • A. Aouad, V. Farias, R. Levi and D. Segev, The Approximability of Assortment Optimization Under Ranking Preferences, Operations Research 66(6), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1724
  • P. Rusmevichientong, D. Shmoys, C. Tong and H. Topaloglu, Assortment Optimization under the Multinomial Logit Model with Random Choice Parameters, Production and Operations Management 23(11), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.12191
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Control TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons 2: The Optimal Revenue Is Strictly Concave in Stock and Time; the Optimal Price Falls with Stock, Rises with TimeResearch Paper

Why the shape of the optimal pricing policy matters

A retailer holding a fixed stock of a perishable or seasonal good (fashion items, airline seats, hotel rooms, concert tickets) must sell it before a deadline, after which unsold units are worthless. Demand is random and depends on the posted price, and the firm may change its price at any time. Dynamic pricing asks how the price should depend on the remaining stock and the remaining time.

Gallego and van Ryzin (Management Science 40(8), 1994) posed this problem as a continuous-time intensity control problem and established its basic structure. Their Theorem 1 says that the optimal expected revenue is strictly increasing and strictly concave in both the stock and the time remaining, and that the optimal price falls as stock grows and rises with the time left to sell. The paper is a standard reference of revenue management; the structural result is the continuous-time counterpart of the monotonicity of marginal values in discrete-time models (Talluri and van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, 2004, Proposition 5.2), and it is what makes the optimal policy computable by restricting attention to monotone policies. The paper credits a slightly weaker version to Kincaid and Darling (1963). The source formalized here is the published 1994 article.

The model and the Hamilton–Jacobi system

The firm chooses a demand rate λ\lambdaλ from a set Λ⊆[0,∞)\Lambda \subseteq [0,\infty)Λ⊆[0,∞) of allowable rates, an interval containing 000; the market then sets the price p(λ)p(\lambda)p(λ), where ppp is the inverse demand function, strictly decreasing and nonnegative on the positive rates. The rate 000 corresponds to the null price at which nothing sells. The revenue rate is

r(λ)=λ p(λ),r(0)=0.r(\lambda) = \lambda\,p(\lambda), \qquad r(0) = 0.r(λ)=λp(λ),r(0)=0.

The demand function is regular when rrr is continuous, bounded and concave on Λ\LambdaΛ and has a least maximizer λ∗=min⁡{λ:r(λ)=max⁡μ∈Λr(μ)}\lambda^* = \min\{\lambda : r(\lambda) = \max_{\mu\in\Lambda} r(\mu)\}λ∗=min{λ:r(λ)=maxμ∈Λ​r(μ)}. The exponential demand λ(p)=ae−p\lambda(p) = ae^{-p}λ(p)=ae−p, with Λ=[0,a]\Lambda=[0,a]Λ=[0,a], p(λ)=log⁡(a/λ)p(\lambda)=\log(a/\lambda)p(λ)=log(a/λ) and λ∗=a/e\lambda^*=a/eλ∗=a/e, is the running example.

With nnn units in stock and time remaining ttt, write J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) for the optimal expected revenue. The paper derives the Hamilton–Jacobi system

∂J(n,t)∂t=sup⁡λ∈Λ[r(λ)−λ(J(n,t)−J(n−1,t))],n≥1, t>0,(8)\frac{\partial J(n,t)}{\partial t} = \sup_{\lambda\in\Lambda}\big[r(\lambda) - \lambda\big(J(n,t)-J(n-1,t)\big)\big], \qquad n\ge1,\ t>0, \tag{8}∂t∂J(n,t)​=λ∈Λsup​[r(λ)−λ(J(n,t)−J(n−1,t))],n≥1, t>0,(8)

with J(n,0)=0J(n,0)=0J(n,0)=0 and J(0,t)=0J(0,t)=0J(0,t)=0. The difference J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)J(n,t)-J(n-1,t)J(n,t)−J(n−1,t) is the marginal value of an item; a rate attaining the supremum is an optimal intensity λ∗(n,t)\lambda^*(n,t)λ∗(n,t), and p(λ∗(n,t))p(\lambda^*(n,t))p(λ∗(n,t)) is the optimal price p∗(n,t)p^*(n,t)p∗(n,t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 1005)

For the solution JJJ of (8), with rrr strictly concave, differentiable on the interior of Λ\LambdaΛ, and λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ interior:

J(n,t) strictly increasing in n (t>0) and in t (n≥1);J(n+1,t)−J(n,t)<J(n,t)−J(n−1,t);J(n,t)\ \text{strictly increasing in } n\ (t>0)\ \text{and in } t\ (n\ge1);\qquad J(n+1,t)-J(n,t) < J(n,t)-J(n-1,t);J(n,t) strictly increasing in n (t>0) and in t (n≥1);J(n+1,t)−J(n,t)<J(n,t)−J(n−1,t); t↦J(n,t) strictly concave;∃ λ∗(n,t): λ∗ ⁣↑n, λ∗ ⁣↓t,p∗ ⁣↓n, p∗ ⁣↑t (strictly).t\mapsto J(n,t)\ \text{strictly concave};\qquad \exists\,\lambda^*(n,t):\ \lambda^*\!\uparrow_n,\ \lambda^*\!\downarrow_t,\quad p^*\!\downarrow_n,\ p^*\!\uparrow_t\ \text{(strictly)}.t↦J(n,t) strictly concave;∃λ∗(n,t): λ∗↑n​, λ∗↓t​,p∗↓n​, p∗↑t​ (strictly).

Milestones

  1. The supremum in (8) is a maximum over [0,λ∗][0,\lambda^*][0,λ∗] whenever the marginal value is nonnegative (proof of Proposition 1).
  2. Proposition 1: (8) has a unique solution, and λ∗(n,s)≤λ∗\lambda^*(n,s)\le\lambda^*λ∗(n,s)≤λ∗.
  3. Eq. (26): J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)=r′(λ∗(n,t))>0J(n,t)-J(n-1,t) = r'(\lambda^*(n,t)) > 0J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)=r′(λ∗(n,t))>0 for t>0t>0t>0.
  4. The case n=1n=1n=1 of Theorem 1: λ∗(1,t)\lambda^*(1,t)λ∗(1,t) strictly decreasing and J(1,t)J(1,t)J(1,t) strictly concave in ttt.
  5. λ∗(n,0+)=λ∗\lambda^*(n,0^+) = \lambda^*λ∗(n,0+)=λ∗.
  6. Eqs. (9)–(10), exponential demand: J(n,t)=log⁡∑i=0n(λ∗t)i/i!J(n,t) = \log\sum_{i=0}^n(\lambda^*t)^i/i!J(n,t)=log∑i=0n​(λ∗t)i/i! and p∗(n,t)=J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)+1p^*(n,t) = J(n,t)-J(n-1,t)+1p∗(n,t)=J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)+1.
  7. Proposition 3, exponential demand: λ∗(n,t)≤λD(n,t)=min⁡{λ∗,n/t}\lambda^*(n,t)\le\lambda^D(n,t)=\min\{\lambda^*,n/t\}λ∗(n,t)≤λD(n,t)=min{λ∗,n/t} and p∗(n,t)≥p(λD(n,t))p^*(n,t)\ge p(\lambda^D(n,t))p∗(n,t)≥p(λD(n,t)).

Significance

Theorem 1 is the qualitative backbone of single-product dynamic pricing. Concavity of JJJ in nnn means that each additional unit is worth less than the previous one, which is the basis of bid-price and marginal-value reasoning in revenue management; the monotone price path justifies markdown practice as the deadline approaches and reduces the policy search to monotone policies. Proposition 3 answers, for exponential demand, a question raised by Mills (1959): the stochastic optimal price is never below the deterministic one. The closed form (9)–(10) is one of the few exactly solvable intensity control problems in pricing.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires the comparison and monotonicity theory of a countable system of coupled ordinary differential equations whose right-hand side is a convex conjugate, a theory that Mathlib does not package. A complete development would also certify the corrected hypotheses of Theorem 1 described below.

Difficulty

The value functions are defined only implicitly by (8), a triangular infinite system of ODEs in which each J(n,⋅)J(n,\cdot)J(n,⋅) is driven by J(n−1,⋅)J(n-1,\cdot)J(n−1,⋅) through the nonsmooth map Δ↦sup⁡λ[r(λ)−λΔ]\Delta\mapsto\sup_\lambda[r(\lambda)-\lambda\Delta]Δ↦supλ​[r(λ)−λΔ]. Monotonicity of the optimal intensity in ttt is a statement about the time derivative of a marginal value, and the paper establishes it by an induction on nnn combined with an argument by contradiction on the first interval where monotonicity could fail. The obvious approach of differentiating (8) twice in ttt needs second derivatives of rrr and of JJJ that the hypotheses do not provide, and the paper's own proof of Proposition 1 assumes that JJJ is nondecreasing in nnn, which is only established in Theorem 1; a rigorous development must break this circularity.

Formalization scope

A regular demand function is a Lean structure (GVRPricing.Structure.Model) holding Λ\LambdaΛ, ppp and λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ with the paper's standing assumptions of §2.1: 0∈Λ⊆[0,∞)0\in\Lambda\subseteq[0,\infty)0∈Λ⊆[0,∞) an interval, ppp strictly decreasing and nonnegative on Λ∖{0}\Lambda\setminus\{0\}Λ∖{0}, r(λ)=λp(λ)r(\lambda)=\lambda p(\lambda)r(λ)=λp(λ) continuous, concave and bounded on Λ\LambdaΛ, and λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ the least maximizer. The definition IsHJBSolution encodes (8) for J:N→R→RJ:\mathbb N\to\mathbb R\to\mathbb RJ:N→R→R, with the second argument the time remaining, the two-sided derivative at each t>0t>0t>0, continuity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), the boundary conditions, and the requirement that the set inside the supremum be bounded above, so that the real supremum is never a default value. An optimal intensity at (n,t)(n,t)(n,t) is any ℓ∈Λ\ell\in\Lambdaℓ∈Λ maximizing λ↦r(λ)−λ(J(n,t)−J(n−1,t))\lambda\mapsto r(\lambda)-\lambda(J(n,t)-J(n-1,t))λ↦r(λ)−λ(J(n,t)−J(n−1,t)) over Λ\LambdaΛ.

All theorems are about solutions of (8), on which the paper's proofs operate. The identification of the solution of (8) with the supremum of expected revenue over non-anticipating pricing policies is Brémaud's verification theorem, which the paper cites and does not prove; it is not part of this mission.

Added hypotheses and corrected statements.

  • As printed, Theorem 1 assumes only a regular demand function and is false: for r(λ)=λr(\lambda)=\sqrt\lambdar(λ)=λ​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] and r=1r=1r=1 beyond, λ∗(1,t)=1\lambda^*(1,t)=1λ∗(1,t)=1 for all t∈(0,ln⁡2]t\in(0,\ln2]t∈(0,ln2]; for r(λ)=λ−λ2/4r(\lambda)=\lambda-\lambda^2/4r(λ)=λ−λ2/4 on Λ=[0,1]\Lambda=[0,1]Λ=[0,1], λ∗=1\lambda^*=1λ∗=1 is on the boundary and λ∗(1,t)=1\lambda^*(1,t)=1λ∗(1,t)=1 for small ttt. The goal, eq. (26) and the case n=1n=1n=1 therefore assume that rrr is strictly concave, differentiable on the interior of Λ\LambdaΛ, and that λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is interior; the appendix proof uses all three. Proposition 1, the restriction lemma and λ∗(n,0+)=λ∗\lambda^*(n,0^+)=\lambda^*λ∗(n,0+)=λ∗ use only the printed assumptions.
  • Strict claims in nnn are made for t>0t>0t>0, since J(n,0)=0J(n,0)=0J(n,0)=0 for all nnn; optimal intensities are considered for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, t>0t>0t>0.
  • Proposition 1's bound "λ∗(n,s)≤λ∗\lambda^*(n,s)\le\lambda^*λ∗(n,s)≤λ∗ for 0≤s0\le s0≤s" is read at s=0s=0s=0 as "λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is optimal", since every maximizer of rrr is optimal there.
  • Proposition 3 is stated for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, t>0t>0t>0 (the page says n≥0n\ge0n≥0, t≥0t\ge0t≥0, where n/tn/tn/t or the optimal intensity is undefined).
  • The exponential results use the paper's normalization α=1\alpha=1α=1 of λ(p)=ae−αp\lambda(p)=ae^{-\alpha p}λ(p)=ae−αp.
  • The case n=1n=1n=1 omits the displayed identities involving r′′r''r′′ and λ∗′\lambda^{*\prime}λ∗′, which presuppose second derivatives; its conclusions are stated.

A formalization that defines JJJ by a formula, or postulates a monotone function as the optimal intensity, would trivialize the goal: the goal quantifies over every solution of (8), and the optimal intensity it asserts must maximize the right-hand side of (8) at every (n,t)(n,t)(n,t).

A complete development needs comparison principles for scalar ODEs with Lipschitz right-hand sides, properties of the concave conjugate Δ↦sup⁡λ[r(λ)−λΔ]\Delta\mapsto\sup_\lambda[r(\lambda)-\lambda\Delta]Δ↦supλ​[r(λ)−λΔ] (monotonicity, Lipschitz continuity, envelope theorem), and monotone comparative statics of maximizers. These are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of any of them, or of the milestones in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8), 999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9477-8
  • W. M. Kincaid, D. A. Darling, An Inventory Pricing Problem, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 7, 183–208, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(63)90047-7
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons 1: A Fixed Price Earns at Least 1 − 1/(2√min{n, λ*t}) of the Optimal Expected RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm holds a fixed stock of a perishable or seasonal product: airline seats, hotel rooms, fashion goods, tickets. It must sell the stock over a finite season, and whatever is left at the end is worth nothing. The firm can change its price at any time, and demand responds to the price at random. Should it adjust its price continually as sales occur and time runs out, or is one well-chosen price nearly as good?

Gallego and van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons (Management Science 40(8), 1994, doi:10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999), set up this question as a continuous-time stochastic control problem and answered it. The source for this mission is the published 1994 article. Its answer is quantitative: the expected revenue of a single fixed price is within a factor 1−1/(2min⁡{n,λ∗t})1-1/(2\sqrt{\min\{n,\lambda^*t\}})1−1/(2min{n,λ∗t}​) of the best possible dynamic policy. The paper is one of the founding results of dynamic pricing in revenue management. The deterministic (fluid) upper bound it introduced became the standard benchmark of the field, and later work on re-solving heuristics, network revenue management and learning-while-pricing builds on it.

Setting

Demand. The firm chooses a demand intensity λ\lambdaλ from an interval Λ∋0\Lambda\ni 0Λ∋0 of allowable rates, and the market charges the inverse-demand price p(λ)p(\lambda)p(λ). On nonzero rates, ppp is strictly decreasing and nonnegative; rate 000 corresponds to the null price p∞p_\inftyp∞​, at which nothing sells. The revenue rate is r(λ)=λp(λ)r(\lambda)=\lambda p(\lambda)r(λ)=λp(λ). It has r(0)=0r(0)=0r(0)=0, and it is continuous, concave and bounded on Λ\LambdaΛ. λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ denotes its least maximizer, and p∗=p(λ∗)p^*=p(\lambda^*)p∗=p(λ∗), r∗=r(λ∗)r^*=r(\lambda^*)r∗=r(λ∗). Such data form a regular demand function (§2.1).

The stochastic problem. At time 000 the firm holds nnn items and has a horizon [0,t][0,t][0,t]. A non-anticipating pricing policy uuu chooses the intensity λs∈Λ\lambda_s\in\Lambdaλs​∈Λ at each elapsed time sss as a function of the sales history so far. Sales follow a Poisson process with this controlled intensity, and at most nnn items can be sold. A sale at time sss earns the current price psp_sps​. The expected revenue is Ju(n,t)=Eu[∫0tps dNs]J_u(n,t)=E_u[\int_0^t p_s\,dN_s]Ju​(n,t)=Eu​[∫0t​ps​dNs​], where NsN_sNs​ counts the sales, and the optimal expected revenue is J∗(n,t)=sup⁡uJu(n,t)J^*(n,t)=\sup_u J_u(n,t)J∗(n,t)=supu​Ju​(n,t).

The deterministic problem. Replacing random sales by their rates gives

JD(x,t)=sup⁡{∫0tr(λ(s)) ds: λ(s)∈Λ, ∫0tλ(s) ds≤x}.J^D(x,t)=\sup\Big\{\int_0^t r(\lambda(s))\,ds:\ \lambda(s)\in\Lambda,\ \int_0^t\lambda(s)\,ds\le x\Big\}.JD(x,t)=sup{∫0t​r(λ(s))ds: λ(s)∈Λ, ∫0t​λ(s)ds≤x}.

It is solved by the constant rate λD=min⁡{λ∗,x/t}\lambda^D=\min\{\lambda^*,x/t\}λD=min{λ∗,x/t} (Proposition 2).

Fixed-price heuristics. JFP(n,t)J^{FP}(n,t)JFP(n,t) is the expected revenue of charging pD=p(λD)p^D=p(\lambda^D)pD=p(λD) for the whole horizon. JOFP(n,t)J^{OFP}(n,t)JOFP(n,t) is the expected revenue of the best constant price.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0, n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and t>0t>0t>0, J∗(n,t)J^*(n,t)J∗(n,t) is finite and positive, and

JOFP(n,t)J∗(n,t) ≥ JFP(n,t)J∗(n,t) ≥ 1−12min⁡{n,λ∗t}.\frac{J^{OFP}(n,t)}{J^*(n,t)}\ \ge\ \frac{J^{FP}(n,t)}{J^*(n,t)}\ \ge\ 1-\frac{1}{2\sqrt{\min\{n,\lambda^*t\}}}.J∗(n,t)JOFP(n,t)​ ≥ J∗(n,t)JFP(n,t)​ ≥ 1−2min{n,λ∗t}​1​.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2: λD\lambda^DλD solves (11), and JD(x,t)=t r(λD)J^D(x,t)=t\,r(\lambda^D)JD(x,t)=tr(λD).
  2. Eqs. (13)–(14): Eu[Nt]=Eu[∫0tλsds]≤nE_u[N_t]=E_u[\int_0^t\lambda_s ds]\le nEu​[Nt​]=Eu​[∫0t​λs​ds]≤n and Ju(n,t)=Eu[∫0tr(λs)ds]J_u(n,t)=E_u[\int_0^t r(\lambda_s)ds]Ju​(n,t)=Eu​[∫0t​r(λs​)ds] for every policy.
  3. Eq. (15) and Lemma 1: Ju(n,t)≤Ju(n,t,μ)≤JD(n,t,μ)J_u(n,t)\le J_u(n,t,\mu)\le J^D(n,t,\mu)Ju​(n,t)≤Ju​(n,t,μ)≤JD(n,t,μ) for all μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0.
  4. The zero duality gap: JD(n,t)=min⁡μ≥0JD(n,t,μ)J^D(n,t)=\min_{\mu\ge0}J^D(n,t,\mu)JD(n,t)=minμ≥0​JD(n,t,μ).
  5. Theorem 2: J∗(n,t)≤JD(n,t)J^*(n,t)\le J^D(n,t)J∗(n,t)≤JD(n,t) for all n≥0n\ge 0n≥0, t≥0t\ge0t≥0.
  6. Eq. (17): a fixed price ppp earns p E[min⁡{n,Nλ(p)t}]p\,E[\min\{n,N_{\lambda(p)t}\}]pE[min{n,Nλ(p)t​}], with NNN Poisson.
  7. Inequality (18), Gallego's bound E[(N−n)+]≤(σ2+(n−μ)2−(n−μ))/2E[(N-n)^+]\le(\sqrt{\sigma^2+(n-\mu)^2}-(n-\mu))/2E[(N−n)+]≤(σ2+(n−μ)2​−(n−μ))/2, already on the platform.
  8. The two case bounds of the proof of Theorem 3, including (19), and the exact fixed-price revenue of the Remark.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 says that uncertainty can only cost revenue. The deterministic value is a computable upper bound for every policy, so any heuristic can be judged against it. Theorem 3 turns this into a guarantee: with 400 items and scarce stock, a single price earns at least 97.5% of the optimum. The loss vanishes as the expected sales volume grows. This is the justification for the stable, rarely changed prices seen in practice, and the template for the asymptotic-optimality analyses that followed: fluid bounds, re-solving, bid prices.

Formalizing it. The results are proved on paper, and none is formalized. The platform has a discrete-time Bernoulli analogue of Theorem 2 (Talluri–van Ryzin, RevenueManagement.deterministic_upper_bound) and Bitran–Caldentey's periodic-review version as open items. Neither is this continuous-time model. A formalization would add a controlled Poisson sales process with a policy-dependent intensity, the compensator identities (13)–(14) for it, and a Lagrangian-duality argument over measurable rate paths. These are reusable for every continuous-time revenue-management model on the platform. Gallego's moment bound (18) is already proved there.

Difficulty

The deterministic side (Proposition 2, the duality gap) is convex analysis on one concave function. The fixed-price bounds reduce to a Poisson computation and (18). The obstacle is Theorem 2's stochastic step. The revenue is collected at random jump times chosen by an adaptive policy, and comparing it with a deterministic integral requires the compensator identity Eu[∫ps dNs]=Eu[∫r(λs) ds]E_u[\int p_s\,dN_s]=E_u[\int r(\lambda_s)\,ds]Eu​[∫ps​dNs​]=Eu​[∫r(λs​)ds] for an arbitrary non-anticipating intensity. The paper cites Brémaud's martingale theory for this, which Mathlib does not have. A first idea is to apply Jensen's inequality to JuJ_uJu​ directly. It fails because the stock constraint holds only pathwise, through Nt≤nN_t\le nNt​≤n, and not in expectation for a rate path. Restricting to Markovian policies does not remove the need for the identity.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Rates are real numbers, and Λ⊆[0,∞)\Lambda\subseteq[0,\infty)Λ⊆[0,∞) is an interval containing 000. ppp is a real function, strictly decreasing and nonnegative on Λ∖{0}\Lambda\setminus\{0\}Λ∖{0}. r(λ)=λp(λ)r(\lambda)=\lambda p(\lambda)r(λ)=λp(λ) is continuous, concave and bounded above on Λ\LambdaΛ, and λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ is its least maximizer. p(0)p(0)p(0) is never used, since the null price may be +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Policies depend on elapsed time and the past sale times (the internal history); randomized policies are not included. Intensities are jointly measurable and locally integrable.
  • The sales process is built from i.i.d. Exp(1)\mathrm{Exp}(1)Exp(1) clocks, one per item. A sale occurs when the intensity integrated since the last sale reaches the next clock, so at most nnn items are sold. Constraint (2) is part of the construction, not a hypothesis.
  • Values. Expected revenues and J∗J^*J∗ are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], as lower Lebesgue integrals and suprema. JDJ^DJD is a real supremum over measurable, integrable rate paths, nonempty and bounded for x,t≥0x,t\ge0x,t≥0. JFPJ^{FP}JFP and JOFPJ^{OFP}JOFP are expected revenues of constant-price policies of this process, and the goal also asserts 0<J∗<∞0<J^*<\infty0<J∗<∞. Defining JuJ_uJu​ by the right side of (14), J∗J^*J∗ by the HJB equation, or JFPJ^{FP}JFP by formula (17) would trivialize the mission, and is ruled out.
  • Added hypotheses. Theorem 3 assumes n≥1n\ge1n≥1, t>0t>0t>0 and λ∗>0\lambda^*>0λ∗>0, which the page leaves implicit: the ratios divide by J∗J^*J∗, which vanishes otherwise. Eqs. (13)–(14) are stated for every policy, without Proposition 1's bound λs≤λ∗\lambda_s\le\lambda^*λs​≤λ∗, and without the reduction to Markovian policies.
  • Corrected slips. (12) prints JD(x,t)=tmin⁡{r∗,r0}J^D(x,t)=t\min\{r^*,r^0\}JD(x,t)=tmin{r∗,r0}, which is false for x>λ∗tx>\lambda^*tx>λ∗t (exponential demand with x=atx=atx=at gives r0=0r^0=0r0=0). The statement uses t r(λD)t\,r(\lambda^D)tr(λD), and the printed form where x≤λ∗tx\le\lambda^*tx≤λ∗t. The Remark's "E(Nn−n)+=n(1−P{Nn=n})E(N_n-n)^+=n(1-P\{N_n=n\})E(Nn​−n)+=n(1−P{Nn​=n})" should read E[min⁡{Nn,n}]E[\min\{N_n,n\}]E[min{Nn​,n}]; its displayed JFPJ^{FP}JFP formula is right. Proposition 2's "the optimal solution" is stated as optimality, since uniqueness fails without strict concavity.
  • Welcome contributions. Infrastructure for counting processes with stochastic intensity (the clock construction, the compensator identity), Jensen and Lagrangian duality for concave integral functionals on rate paths, and Poisson truncated-mean computations.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • G. Gallego, A Minmax Distribution Free Procedure for the (Q, R) Inventory Model, Operations Research Letters 11:55–60, 1992 (cited in the paper's references, p. 1019).
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, New York, 1980 (as cited in the paper).
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2004 (Chapter 5; on the platform as RevenueManagement.*).
  • G. Bitran, R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–229, 2003 (on the platform as PricingRM.DetHeuristic.*).
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Non-Strongly-Convex Smooth Stochastic Approximation with Convergence Rate O(1/n): Averaged Constant-Step-Size LMS Has Expected Excess Risk at Most (1/2n)[σ√d/(1−√(γR²)) + R‖θ₀−θ*‖/√(γR²)]²Research Paper

Motivation

Least-squares regression fitted by stochastic gradient descent — the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm — is the basic large-scale learning procedure: each observation is touched once, at a cost linear in the dimension. Classical analyses of stochastic approximation give the rate O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt n)O(1/n​) for non-strongly-convex objectives, and O(1/(μn))O(1/(\mu n))O(1/(μn)) when the objective is μ\muμ-strongly convex. For least squares, μ\muμ is the smallest eigenvalue of the input covariance, which in high-dimensional problems is close to zero, so the strongly convex rate is often worse than the non-strongly-convex one.

F. Bach and E. Moulines (arXiv:1306.2119, NeurIPS 2013) showed that for the square loss this dichotomy disappears: averaged LMS with a constant step size reaches the rate O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n) with no strong-convexity assumption, and with a constant that does not involve the smallest eigenvalue. Averaging of stochastic approximation iterates goes back to Polyak and Juditsky (SIAM J. Control Optim. 1992), whose guarantees are asymptotic and use decreasing step sizes. The proof technique for the expansion of the noise process is adapted from Aguech, Moulines and Priouret (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2000). This mission formalizes the non-asymptotic bound in expectation (Theorem 1 of the paper) and the chain of lemmas of its Appendix A.

Setting

Let H=Rd\mathcal H=\mathbb R^dH=Rd with d≥1d\ge1d≥1, inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. For a∈Ha\in\mathcal Ha∈H, a⊗aa\otimes aa⊗a is the operator b↦⟨a,b⟩ab\mapsto\langle a,b\rangle ab↦⟨a,b⟩a. For self-adjoint operators, A≼BA\preccurlyeq BA≼B means that B−AB-AB−A is positive semi-definite.

The data are independent and identically distributed pairs (xn,zn)∈H×H(x_n,z_n)\in\mathcal H\times\mathcal H(xn​,zn​)∈H×H, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, with finite second moments. The covariance operator is H=E[xn⊗xn]H=\mathbb E[x_n\otimes x_n]H=E[xn​⊗xn​], assumed invertible (its eigenvalues may be arbitrarily small). The least-squares objective

f(θ)=12 E[⟨θ,xn⟩2−2⟨θ,zn⟩]f(\theta)=\tfrac12\,\mathbb E\big[\langle\theta,x_n\rangle^2-2\langle\theta,z_n\rangle\big]f(θ)=21​E[⟨θ,xn​⟩2−2⟨θ,zn​⟩]

attains its global minimum at θ∗\theta^*θ∗, and ξn=zn−⟨θ∗,xn⟩xn\xi_n=z_n-\langle\theta^*,x_n\rangle x_nξn​=zn​−⟨θ∗,xn​⟩xn​ is the residual. The model need not be well specified: E[ξn∣xn]\mathbb E[\xi_n\mid x_n]E[ξn​∣xn​] need not vanish. Two constants R,σ>0R,\sigma>0R,σ>0 satisfy

E[ξn⊗ξn]≼σ2H,E[∥xn∥2xn⊗xn]≼R2H.\mathbb E[\xi_n\otimes\xi_n]\preccurlyeq\sigma^2H,\qquad \mathbb E\big[\|x_n\|^2x_n\otimes x_n\big]\preccurlyeq R^2H .E[ξn​⊗ξn​]≼σ2H,E[∥xn​∥2xn​⊗xn​]≼R2H.

These are assumptions (A1)–(A6) of §2.1. The LMS recursion with constant step size γ\gammaγ, started at θ0∈H\theta_0\in\mathcal Hθ0​∈H, is

θn=θn−1−γ(⟨θn−1,xn⟩xn−zn)=(I−γxn⊗xn)θn−1+γzn,\theta_n=\theta_{n-1}-\gamma\big(\langle\theta_{n-1},x_n\rangle x_n-z_n\big)=(I-\gamma x_n\otimes x_n)\theta_{n-1}+\gamma z_n ,θn​=θn−1​−γ(⟨θn−1​,xn​⟩xn​−zn​)=(I−γxn​⊗xn​)θn−1​+γzn​,

and its average is θˉn−1=n−1∑k=0n−1θk\bar\theta_{n-1}=n^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\theta_kθˉn−1​=n−1∑k=0n−1​θk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1, Eq. (2)

For every step size 0<γ<1/R20<\gamma<1/R^20<γ<1/R2 and every n≥1n\ge1n≥1,

E[f(θˉn−1)−f(θ∗)]≤12n[σd1−γR2+R∥θ0−θ∗∥1γR2]2.\mathbb E\big[f(\bar\theta_{n-1})-f(\theta^*)\big]\le\frac{1}{2n}\left[\frac{\sigma\sqrt d}{1-\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}+R\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|\frac{1}{\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}\right]^2 .E[f(θˉn−1​)−f(θ∗)]≤2n1​[1−γR2​σd​​+R∥θ0​−θ∗∥γR2​1​]2.

The constants are the paper's. A companion item states the case γ=1/(4R2)\gamma=1/(4R^2)γ=1/(4R2), where the bound reads 2n[σd+R∥θ0−θ∗∥]2\frac2n\big[\sigma\sqrt d+R\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|\big]^2n2​[σd​+R∥θ0​−θ∗∥]2.

Milestones (Appendix A)

  1. The excess risk is a quadratic form: f(θ)−f(θ∗)=12⟨θ−θ∗,H(θ−θ∗)⟩f(\theta)-f(\theta^*)=\tfrac12\langle\theta-\theta^*,H(\theta-\theta^*)\ranglef(θ)−f(θ∗)=21​⟨θ−θ∗,H(θ−θ∗)⟩.
  2. Consequences of (A6): E∥xn∥2≤R2\mathbb E\|x_n\|^2\le R^2E∥xn​∥2≤R2, tr⁡H≤R2\operatorname{tr}H\le R^2trH≤R2, H≼R2IH\preccurlyeq R^2IH≼R2I, and γH≼I\gamma H\preccurlyeq IγH≼I for γ≤1/R2\gamma\le1/R^2γ≤1/R2.
  3. Lemma 1: for a recursion αn=(I−γxn⊗xn)αn−1+γξn\alpha_n=(I-\gamma x_n\otimes x_n)\alpha_{n-1}+\gamma\xi_nαn​=(I−γxn​⊗xn​)αn−1​+γξn​ with martingale-difference noise and γR2≤1\gamma R^2\le1γR2≤1,
(1−γR2) E⟨αˉn−1,Hαˉn−1⟩+12nγE∥αn∥2≤12nγ∥α0∥2+γn∑k=1nE∥ξk∥2.(1-\gamma R^2)\,\mathbb E\langle\bar\alpha_{n-1},H\bar\alpha_{n-1}\rangle+\tfrac{1}{2n\gamma}\mathbb E\|\alpha_n\|^2\le\tfrac{1}{2n\gamma}\|\alpha_0\|^2+\tfrac{\gamma}{n}\textstyle\sum_{k=1}^{n}\mathbb E\|\xi_k\|^2 .(1−γR2)E⟨αˉn−1​,Hαˉn−1​⟩+2nγ1​E∥αn​∥2≤2nγ1​∥α0​∥2+nγ​∑k=1n​E∥ξk​∥2.
  1. Lemma 3: (1−(1−u)n)2≤nu(1-(1-u)^n)^2\le nu(1−(1−u)n)2≤nu for u∈[0,1]u\in[0,1]u∈[0,1] and n>0n>0n>0.
  2. Lemma 2: for αn=(I−γH)αn−1+γξn\alpha_n=(I-\gamma H)\alpha_{n-1}+\gamma\xi_nαn​=(I−γH)αn−1​+γξn​ with E[ξn⊗ξn]≼C\mathbb E[\xi_n\otimes\xi_n]\preccurlyeq CE[ξn​⊗ξn​]≼C, the second-moment bound (13) and
E⟨αˉn−1,Hαˉn−1⟩≤1nγ∥α0∥2+1ntr⁡(CH−1).\mathbb E\langle\bar\alpha_{n-1},H\bar\alpha_{n-1}\rangle\le\tfrac{1}{n\gamma}\|\alpha_0\|^2+\tfrac1n\operatorname{tr}(CH^{-1}).E⟨αˉn−1​,Hαˉn−1​⟩≤nγ1​∥α0​∥2+n1​tr(CH−1).
  1. The pathwise decomposition θn−θ∗=M1n(θ0−θ∗)+γ∑k=1nMk+1nξk\theta_n-\theta^*=M^n_1(\theta_0-\theta^*)+\gamma\sum_{k=1}^nM^n_{k+1}\xi_kθn​−θ∗=M1n​(θ0​−θ∗)+γ∑k=1n​Mk+1n​ξk​ (A.2).
  2. The initial-condition bound E⟨ηˉn−1,Hηˉn−1⟩≤∥η0∥2/(nγ)\mathbb E\langle\bar\eta_{n-1},H\bar\eta_{n-1}\rangle\le\|\eta_0\|^2/(n\gamma)E⟨ηˉ​n−1​,Hηˉ​n−1​⟩≤∥η0​∥2/(nγ) for the noise-free process (A.3).
  3. The expansion of the noise process (A.4): the remainder recursion (16), the covariance bound (17) E[ηn−1r⊗ηn−1r]≼γr+1R2rσ2I\mathbb E[\eta^r_{n-1}\otimes\eta^r_{n-1}]\preccurlyeq\gamma^{r+1}R^{2r}\sigma^2IE[ηn−1r​⊗ηn−1r​]≼γr+1R2rσ2I, the order-rrr bound 1nγrR2rdσ2\frac1n\gamma^rR^{2r}d\sigma^2n1​γrR2rdσ2, the remainder bound γr+2σ2R2r+41−γR2\frac{\gamma^{r+2}\sigma^2R^{2r+4}}{1-\gamma R^2}1−γR2γr+2σ2R2r+4​, and the noise bound
(E⟨ηˉn−1,Hηˉn−1⟩)1/2≤σdn⋅11−γR2(η0=0, γR2<1).\big(\mathbb E\langle\bar\eta_{n-1},H\bar\eta_{n-1}\rangle\big)^{1/2}\le\frac{\sigma\sqrt d}{\sqrt n}\cdot\frac{1}{1-\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}\quad(\eta_0=0,\ \gamma R^2<1).(E⟨ηˉ​n−1​,Hηˉ​n−1​⟩)1/2≤n​σd​​⋅1−γR2​1​(η0​=0, γR2<1).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 gives a finite-sample, dimension-explicit bound with two terms: a variance term σ2d/n\sigma^2d/nσ2d/n, which matches the minimax rate for least-squares regression, and a bias term R2∥θ0−θ∗∥2/(γn)R^2\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|^2/(\gamma n)R2∥θ0​−θ∗∥2/(γn). Neither involves the smallest eigenvalue of HHH, so the guarantee survives ill-conditioning, which is the regime of high-dimensional learning. The bound is the basis for the paper's later results: the high-probability bound (Theorem 2) and the constant-step algorithm for logistic regression (Theorem 3), whose analysis invokes Theorem 1 for the quadratic approximations.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge no part of it has been machine-checked. A formalization yields a reusable layer for linear stochastic approximation in finite dimension: martingale-difference noise in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, second-moment bounds for linear recursions driven by random operators, Loewner-order arguments, and averaging. The lemmas are stated for an abstract filtration and an abstract operator HHH, so they apply beyond this model. The mission also records the corrections the appendix needs (an "===" that should be "≼\preccurlyeq≼" in (13), an index in (16), and the exponent of ∥η0∥\|\eta_0\|∥η0​∥ in A.5).

Difficulty

Two steps resist the naive approach. First, the obvious one-step analysis — expand ∥θn−θ∗∥2\|\theta_n-\theta^*\|^2∥θn​−θ∗∥2 and take expectations — yields the bias part and Lemma 1, but on the noise it gives only γ∑kE∥ξk∥2/n\gamma\sum_k\mathbb E\|\xi_k\|^2/nγ∑k​E∥ξk​∥2/n, which does not decrease with nnn. The σ2d/n\sigma^2d/nσ2d/n rate requires averaging to cancel the noise, and this cancellation is visible only for the recursion with xn⊗xnx_n\otimes x_nxn​⊗xn​ replaced by its mean HHH. The random recursion is therefore expanded in powers of γ\gammaγ around the mean recursion, and each term ηr\eta^rηr needs its own covariance bound, by induction on rrr, using the independence of xnx_nxn​ from ηn−1r\eta^{r}_{n-1}ηn−1r​. Second, the induction relies on Loewner-order bookkeeping: sums of (I−γH)2kH(I-\gamma H)^{2k}H(I−γH)2kH must be bounded uniformly in nnn without dividing by small eigenvalues.

Formalization scope

The space H\mathcal HH is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Operators are continuous linear maps, and H−1H^{-1}H−1 is an explicit two-sided inverse. Observations are indexed from 111. Averages are pˉn−1=n−1∑k=0n−1pk\bar p_{n-1}=n^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}p_kpˉ​n−1​=n−1∑k=0n−1​pk​, with n≥1n\ge1n≥1 in every statement that uses them. The covariance operator is defined by its bilinear form, ⟨v,Hw⟩=E[⟨x1,v⟩⟨x1,w⟩]\langle v,Hw\rangle=\mathbb E[\langle x_1,v\rangle\langle x_1,w\rangle]⟨v,Hw⟩=E[⟨x1​,v⟩⟨x1​,w⟩]. Every Loewner inequality whose sides are expectations is an inequality of quadratic forms (for example E⟨ξ1,v⟩2≤σ2⟨v,Hv⟩\mathbb E\langle\xi_1,v\rangle^2\le\sigma^2\langle v,Hv\rangleE⟨ξ1​,v⟩2≤σ2⟨v,Hv⟩ for all vvv), which is the same order for self-adjoint operators.

Lean's Bochner integral is 000 on non-integrable functions, so every moment assumption carries the integrability of its integrand, and every bounded expectation in a conclusion is paired with an integrability conjunct. Without these, a heavy-tailed xnx_nxn​ would satisfy (A6) vacuously and a conclusion could hold through the value 000; neither formalization is acceptable. Independence is of the pairs (xn,zn)(x_n,z_n)(xn​,zn​), not of xnx_nxn​ and znz_nzn​ separately. (A4) is attainment of the minimum, not a gradient condition.

The following hypotheses are added to the page and disclosed in each item:

  • γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 (a step size, and γR2\sqrt{\gamma R^2}γR2​ is a denominator);
  • n≥1n\ge1n≥1;
  • the positivity and self-adjointness of HHH in Lemma 2;
  • γR2<1\gamma R^2<1γR2<1 instead of ≤1\le1≤1 in the remainder bound, which divides by 1−γR21-\gamma R^21−γR2.

A complete development needs:

  • conditional expectations of Rd\mathbb R^dRd-valued martingale differences, and the orthogonality of their sums;
  • independence of a fresh observation from the past iterates;
  • spectral calculus for (I−γH)k(I-\gamma H)^k(I−γH)k;
  • Minkowski's inequality in L2L^2L2.

All of these are reusable for other stochastic-approximation missions. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the noise bound that avoid the expansion.

Selected references

  • F. Bach and E. Moulines, Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n), Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1306.2119
  • B. T. Polyak and A. B. Juditsky, Acceleration of stochastic approximation by averaging, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 30(4), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1137/0330046
  • R. Aguech, E. Moulines and P. Priouret, On a perturbation approach for the analysis of stochastic tracking algorithms, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 39(3), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012997331639
  • F. Bach and E. Moulines, Non-asymptotic analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms for machine learning, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, 2011. https://hal.science/hal-00608041
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Convex OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Relaxation Method of Finding the Common Point of Convex Sets and Its Application to the Solution of Problems in Convex Programming 4: The Primal-Dual Relaxation Solves the Inequality ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

Many large convex programs have far more constraints than can be handled at once, but each constraint on its own is simple: a single linear equation or inequality. Row-action methods exploit this by touching one constraint per iteration. L. M. Bregman's 1967 paper (DOI 10.1016/0041-5553(67)90040-7) introduced the general framework behind most of them. A strictly convex function fff induces the "distance" D(x,y)=f(x)−f(y)−(g(y),x−y)D(x,y)=f(x)-f(y)-(g(y),x-y)D(x,y)=f(x)−f(y)−(g(y),x−y), now called the Bregman distance, and the method moves from point to point by DDD-projections onto one constraint at a time. For f(x)=∥x∥2/2f(x)=\|x\|^2/2f(x)=∥x∥2/2 this reduces to Hildreth's method for quadratic programming; for entropy-type fff it gives the balancing (matrix scaling) methods used for transportation and traffic problems. The later literature on Bregman projections, mirror descent and entropic regularisation starts from this paper.

This mission formalizes the last main result of the paper, Theorem 4 (p. 212), which treats linear inequality constraints. Here a plain projection cycle does not minimize fff. Bregman's fix carries a vector of nonnegative multipliers unu^nun along with the primal point xnx^nxn and lets each step either move towards a violated constraint or relax a multiplier. The result is a primal–dual method.

Timeline. Hildreth (1957) gave the quadratic case. Bregman (1967) proved the general theorem stated here. Censor and Lent (1981) revisited the method for interval constraints under explicit assumptions on Bregman functions (DOI 10.1007/BF00934676).

Setting

Let EpE^pEp be ppp-dimensional Euclidean space and S⊂EpS\subset E^pS⊂Ep a convex set. Let fff be strictly convex on SSS, continuously differentiable over SSS with gradient g(x)g(x)g(x), and continuous over the closure Sˉ\bar SSˉ. Let AAA be an m×pm\times pm×p matrix (m≥1m\ge1m≥1) with nonzero rows A1,…,AmA_1,\dots,A_mA1​,…,Am​, and b∈Emb\in E^mb∈Em. The inequality program (2.11)–(2.13) is

minimize f(x)subject toAx≥b,x∈Sˉ,\text{minimize } f(x)\quad\text{subject to}\quad Ax\ge b,\quad x\in\bar S,minimize f(x)subject toAx≥b,x∈Sˉ,

with feasible set R={x∣Ax≥b, x∈Sˉ}R=\{x \mid Ax\ge b,\ x\in\bar S\}R={x∣Ax≥b, x∈Sˉ}, assumed nonempty. The Bregman function is D(x,y)=f(x)−f(y)−(g(y),x−y)D(x,y)=f(x)-f(y)-(g(y),x-y)D(x,y)=f(x)−f(y)−(g(y),x−y) (1.4). The DDD-projection PiyP_iyPi​y of y∈Sy\in Sy∈S onto the hyperplane Ai={x∣(Ai,x)=bi}A_i=\{x \mid (A_i,x)=b_i\}Ai​={x∣(Ai​,x)=bi​} minimizes D(⋅,y)D(\cdot,y)D(⋅,y) over Ai∩SA_i\cap SAi​∩S. The standing hypotheses ("the conditions of Theorem 3") are that DDD satisfies the abstract conditions I–VI of §1 for these hyperplanes, together with condition (2) of Note 1: yn→y∗∈Sˉy^n\to y^*\in\bar Syn→y∗∈Sˉ implies D(y∗,yn)→0D(y^*,y^n)\to0D(y∗,yn)→0. In addition, DDD-projections of interior points of SSS stay in the interior. Condition V (compact sublevel sets of D(z,⋅)D(z,\cdot)D(z,⋅)) is used for z∈Rz\in Rz∈R.

Write Z0={x∈S∣g(x)=uA for some u≥0}Z_0=\{x\in S \mid g(x)=uA \text{ for some } u\ge0\}Z0​={x∈S∣g(x)=uA for some u≥0}, where uA=∑iuiAiuA=\sum_iu_iA_iuA=∑i​ui​Ai​, and φ(x,u)=f(x)−(u,Ax−b)\varphi(x,u)=f(x)-(u,Ax-b)φ(x,u)=f(x)−(u,Ax−b). A run of the method is a sequence of pairs (xn,un)(x^n,u^n)(xn,un) with x0∈int⁡Sx^0\in\operatorname{int}Sx0∈intS, u0≥0u^0\ge0u0≥0, g(x0)=u0Ag(x^0)=u^0Ag(x0)=u0A, and cyclic indices ini_nin​. Each step with i=ini=i_ni=in​ is one of the following:

  • (a) if (Ai,xn)<bi(A_i,x^n)<b_i(Ai​,xn)<bi​: g(xn+1)=g(xn)+λnAig(x^{n+1})=g(x^n)+\lambda_nA_ig(xn+1)=g(xn)+λn​Ai​, (Ai,xn+1)=bi(A_i,x^{n+1})=b_i(Ai​,xn+1)=bi​, and uiu_iui​ increases by λn\lambda_nλn​;
  • (b) if (Ai,xn)=bi(A_i,x^n)=b_i(Ai​,xn)=bi​, or (Ai,xn)>bi(A_i,x^n)>b_i(Ai​,xn)>bi​ with ui=0u_i=0ui​=0: nothing changes;
  • (c) if (Ai,xn)>bi(A_i,x^n)>b_i(Ai​,xn)>bi​ and ui>0u_i>0ui​>0: g(xn+1)=g(xn)−μnAig(x^{n+1})=g(x^n)-\mu_nA_ig(xn+1)=g(xn)−μn​Ai​ with μn=min⁡(μn′,ui)\mu_n=\min(\mu_n',u_i)μn​=min(μn′​,ui​), where μn′\mu_n'μn′​ is the step that would reach the hyperplane, and uiu_iui​ decreases by μn\mu_nμn​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

For every run of the method,

xn→x∗,x∗∈R,f(x∗)=min⁡y∈Rf(y).x^n\to x^*,\qquad x^*\in R,\qquad f(x^*)=\min_{y\in R}f(y).xn→x∗,x∗∈R,f(x∗)=y∈Rmin​f(y).

Milestones (steps 1–4 of the proof)

  1. un≥0u^n\ge0un≥0 and g(xn)=unAg(x^n)=u^nAg(xn)=unA for all nnn (step 1, (2.20)–(2.21)).
  2. φ(xn+1,un+1)−φ(xn,un)≥D(xn+1,xn)\varphi(x^{n+1},u^{n+1})-\varphi(x^n,u^n)\ge D(x^{n+1},x^n)φ(xn+1,un+1)−φ(xn,un)≥D(xn+1,xn) (step 2, (2.22)–(2.24)).
  3. For z∈Rz\in Rz∈R: D(z,xn)≤f(z)−φ(x0,u0)D(z,x^n)\le f(z)-\varphi(x^0,u^0)D(z,xn)≤f(z)−φ(x0,u0) and φ(xn,un)≤f(z)\varphi(x^n,u^n)\le f(z)φ(xn,un)≤f(z) (step 3, (2.25)–(2.26)).
  4. {xn}\{x^n\}{xn} lies in a compact set, and lim⁡φ(xn,un)\lim\varphi(x^n,u^n)limφ(xn,un) exists and is at most f(z)f(z)f(z) for every z∈Rz\in Rz∈R (step 3, (2.27)).
  5. D(xn+1,xn)→0D(x^{n+1},x^n)\to0D(xn+1,xn)→0, and every limiting point of {xn}\{x^n\}{xn} lies in RRR (step 4).

Significance

Theorem 4 says that a method using one constraint per step and only fff's gradient converges to the minimizer of a strictly convex function over a polyhedron intersected with Sˉ\bar SSˉ. Its multipliers unu^nun form a dual sequence. Note 4 of the paper deduces from the theorem that the optimal value equals sup⁡φ(x,u)\sup\varphi(x,u)supφ(x,u) over dual-feasible pairs (g(x)=uAg(x)=uAg(x)=uA, u≥0u\ge0u≥0). The theorem is the convergence statement behind Hildreth's algorithm, behind entropy-based balancing for linear inequality systems, and behind the later "interval convex programming" methods.

The theorem is proved on paper, but no machine-checked proof of it, or of any Bregman-projection row-action method, is known to exist. The formalization adds two things. It makes the paper's standing hypotheses explicit, since several are stated once or left implicit. It also forces a complete argument for the convergence of the whole sequence: the printed proof gets this from condition (2) by an argument that assumes a monotonicity property established in §1 for the pure projection method but not for the primal–dual one. A Lean proof of the goal therefore also supplies a complete proof of the paper's claim.

Difficulty

The standard argument for projection methods uses a Fejér-type property: D(z,xn)D(z,x^n)D(z,xn) decreases for every feasible zzz. That fails here. In case (c) the point moves away from the hyperplane of a satisfied constraint, and D(z,xn)D(z,x^n)D(z,xn) can increase. So any argument has to control primal and dual quantities together. To pass from "every limiting point is feasible" to "the whole sequence converges to an optimal point", complementary slackness has to hold in the limit, and this depends on the cyclic order and on the cap μn≤ui\mu_n\le u_iμn​≤ui​. The naive route, applying the §1 convergence theorems to the hyperplanes AiA_iAi​, does not apply, because the iterates are not DDD-projections onto fixed sets in case (c).

Formalization scope

  • EpE^pEp is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin p); the rows are vectors aia_iai​, and uAuAuA is ∑iuiai\sum_iu_ia_i∑i​ui​ai​. The gradient ggg is explicit data tied to fff by HasGradientWithinAt on SSS. SSS is not assumed open, and fff is continuous on Sˉ\bar SSˉ.
  • The DDD-projections form a fixed map PPP. Condition IV is assumed in the one-sided form the proofs use, which the paper's two-sided IV implies. "Compact" means sequentially compact, which agrees with compact in EpE^pEp. Condition (2) is read with y∗∈Sˉy^*\in\bar Sy∗∈Sˉ.
  • Condition V is assumed for z∈Rz\in Rz∈R, the inequality-feasible set, where the proof applies it. The §1 form (for zzz in the intersection of the hyperplanes) could hold vacuously for an inequality system.
  • Step (a) is encoded by its defining conditions (2.14)–(2.15). Every new point, and the auxiliary point of case (c), lies in SSS. The run starts with u0≥0u^0\ge0u0≥0, and the cyclic control is in=n mod mi_n=n\bmod min​=nmodm over indices 0,…,m−10,\dots,m-10,…,m−1.
  • Translation slips are corrected: the Z0Z_0Z0​ set-builder, which breaks off, is completed; "μn′=uinn\mu_n'=u_{i_n}^nμn′​=uin​n​" is read as μn′′=uinn\mu_n''=u_{i_n}^nμn′′​=uin​n​; "Theorems 1–3" in Theorem 3 means Theorems 1–2.
  • The goal quantifies over every run from every admissible start and asserts convergence of the whole sequence together with optimality of the limit. Neither "some limiting point is optimal" nor a single constructed run is an acceptable substitute. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable, for example by Hildreth's case f=∥x∥2/2f=\|x\|^2/2f=∥x∥2/2, S=EpS=E^pS=Ep with a run that takes a case (a) step, so the goal is not vacuous.
  • Needed infrastructure: Bregman distances of differentiable strictly convex functions on non-open convex sets, the strict monotonicity of the gradient, and subsequence and compactness arguments in EpE^pEp. These are reusable for the companion missions on Theorems 1–3 of the same paper. Contributions are welcome: proofs of the milestones, the full-convergence argument, and the duality statement of Note 4.

Selected references

  • L. M. Bregman, The relaxation method of finding the common point of convex sets and its application to the solution of problems in convex programming, USSR Comput. Math. Math. Phys. 7(3) (1967) 200–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-5553(67)90040-7
  • C. Hildreth, A quadratic programming procedure, Naval Res. Logist. Quart. 4 (1957) 79–85. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800040113
  • Y. Censor, A. Lent, An iterative row-action method for interval convex programming, J. Optim. Theory Appl. 34 (1981) 321–353. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00934676
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Machine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 2: Follow the Perturbed Leader with an ε-Approximate Linear Oracle Has Expected Regret at Most 2√(DRAT) + 2εTResearch Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems are solved repeatedly against data that arrive over time: routing traffic, allocating budgets, choosing portfolios or combinatorial structures. Online linear optimization models this. At each round t=1,…,Tt = 1, \ldots, Tt=1,…,T a learner picks a decision xtx_txt​ from a fixed domain K⊆Rn\mathcal K\subseteq\mathbb R^nK⊆Rn, then a reward vector ftf_tft​ is revealed and the learner earns ft⋅xtf_t\cdot x_tft​⋅xt​. Performance is measured by regret, the gap to the best fixed decision in hindsight. When K\mathcal KK is combinatorial (paths, spanning trees, assignments), the only computationally reasonable access to K\mathcal KK is a procedure that optimizes a linear function over it, and in practice such procedures are often only approximate.

Follow the Perturbed Leader (FPL), introduced by Hannan (1957) and analysed for linear optimization by Kalai and Vempala (JCSS 2005), uses exactly one call to an exact linear optimizer per round and achieves regret O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) over arbitrary, not necessarily convex, domains. Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) needed a version of FPL that works with an additively approximate linear optimizer, as a building block for oracle-based robust optimization with linearly parametrized uncertainty sets. Their §3.3 analyses this variant and proves Theorem 6, the goal of this mission.

Setting

Fix a dimension nnn, a domain K⊆Rn\mathcal K\subseteq\mathbb R^nK⊆Rn (arbitrary: not necessarily convex, closed or bounded) and ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0. An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate linear optimization procedure over K\mathcal KK is a map Mϵ:Rn→RnM_\epsilon:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nMϵ​:Rn→Rn such that, for every g∈Rng\in\mathbb R^ng∈Rn,

Mϵ(g)∈Kandg⋅Mϵ(g)  ≥  g⋅x−ϵfor all x∈K.M_\epsilon(g)\in\mathcal K \qquad\text{and}\qquad g\cdot M_\epsilon(g)\;\ge\; g\cdot x-\epsilon\quad\text{for all }x\in\mathcal K .Mϵ​(g)∈Kandg⋅Mϵ​(g)≥g⋅x−ϵfor all x∈K.

Reward vectors f1,…,fT∈Rnf_1,\ldots,f_T\in\mathbb R^nf1​,…,fT​∈Rn are fixed in advance (an oblivious adversary). Write f1:t=∑τ=1tfτf_{1:t}=\sum_{\tau=1}^t f_\tauf1:t​=∑τ=1t​fτ​, with f1:0=0f_{1:0}=0f1:0​=0, and ∥v∥1=∑i∣vi∣\|v\|_1=\sum_i|v_i|∥v∥1​=∑i​∣vi​∣.

Follow the Approximate Perturbed Leader with parameter η>0\eta>0η>0 plays at round ttt

xt=Mϵ(f1:t−1+pt),pt uniform on the cube [0,1/η]n.x_t = M_\epsilon\big(f_{1:t-1}+p_t\big),\qquad p_t \text{ uniform on the cube } [0,1/\eta]^n .xt​=Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+pt​),pt​ uniform on the cube [0,1/η]n.

Three scale parameters enter the bound: DDD bounds the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ diameter of K\mathcal KK, ∥x−y∥1≤D\|x-y\|_1\le D∥x−y∥1​≤D for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K; AAA bounds ∥ft∥1\|f_t\|_1∥ft​∥1​; and RRR bounds how much each reward varies over the domain, ∣ft⋅x−ft⋅y∣≤R|f_t\cdot x-f_t\cdot y|\le R∣ft​⋅x−ft​⋅y∣≤R for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 11)

With η=D/(RAT)\eta=\sqrt{D/(RAT)}η=D/(RAT)​, for every x∗∈Kx^*\in\mathcal Kx∗∈K,

∑t=1Tft⋅x∗−E[∑t=1Tft⋅xt]  ≤  2DRAT+2ϵT.\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x^* - \mathbf E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x_t\Big]\;\le\;2\sqrt{DRAT}+2\epsilon T .t=1∑T​ft​⋅x∗−E[t=1∑T​ft​⋅xt​]≤2DRAT​+2ϵT.

The bound for every η\etaη (proof of Theorem 6, p. 13)

For every η>0\eta>0η>0 and x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K,

E[∑t=1Tft⋅xt]  ≥  f1:T⋅x−Dη−ηRAT−2ϵT.\mathbf E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T f_t\cdot x_t\Big]\;\ge\; f_{1:T}\cdot x-\frac D\eta-\eta RAT-2\epsilon T .E[t=1∑T​ft​⋅xt​]≥f1:T​⋅x−ηD​−ηRAT−2ϵT.

Supporting lemmas (pp. 12–13)

  • Lemma 7 (approximate be-the-leader): ∑t=1TMϵ(f1:t)⋅ft≥Mϵ(f1:T)⋅f1:T−ϵT\sum_{t=1}^T M_\epsilon(f_{1:t})\cdot f_t\ge M_\epsilon(f_{1:T})\cdot f_{1:T}-\epsilon T∑t=1T​Mϵ​(f1:t​)⋅ft​≥Mϵ​(f1:T​)⋅f1:T​−ϵT.
  • Lemma 8 (be the approximate perturbed leader): for T≥2T\ge2T≥2, p∈[0,1/η]np\in[0,1/\eta]^np∈[0,1/η]n and x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K, ∑t=1TMϵ(f1:t+p)⋅ft≥f1:T⋅x−D/η−2ϵT\sum_{t=1}^T M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)\cdot f_t\ge f_{1:T}\cdot x-D/\eta-2\epsilon T∑t=1T​Mϵ​(f1:t​+p)⋅ft​≥f1:T​⋅x−D/η−2ϵT.
  • Lemma 9 (stability): for ppp uniform on [0,1/η]n[0,1/\eta]^n[0,1/η]n, E[Mϵ(f1:t−1+p)⋅ft]−E[Mϵ(f1:t+p)⋅ft]≥−ηRA\mathbf E[M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)\cdot f_t]-\mathbf E[M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)\cdot f_t]\ge-\eta RAE[Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p)⋅ft​]−E[Mϵ​(f1:t​+p)⋅ft​]≥−ηRA.

Significance

Theorem 6 shows that perturbed-leader online linear optimization is robust to additive error in its optimization subroutine: an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle costs only 2ϵT2\epsilon T2ϵT extra regret, so the average regret is 2DRA/T+2ϵ2\sqrt{DRA/T}+2\epsilon2DRA/T​+2ϵ. This allows the algorithm to be run over domains where exact linear optimization is intractable but a good additive approximation is available, and the paper invokes it as the online-learning primitive of its oracle-based scheme for linearly parametrized uncertainty in §3.2 (that application is not part of this mission). Unlike online gradient methods, it requires no convexity of K\mathcal KK and no projection.

On the formal side, no regret bound for Follow the Perturbed Leader, exact or approximate, is currently formalized on the platform, and the Kalai–Vempala stability argument (comparing a uniform distribution on a cube with its translate) is a reusable piece of measure theory. The mission's statements are proved on paper; the work here is to formalize those proofs, with one correction to a hypothesis, explained under Formalization scope.

Difficulty

Lemmas 7 and 8 are deterministic and combinatorial. The substance is Lemma 9. It compares the expectations of one bounded function of Mϵ(⋅)M_\epsilon(\cdot)Mϵ​(⋅) under the uniform law on a cube and under its translate by ftf_tft​. The natural first attempt, a pointwise comparison of Mϵ(f1:t−1+p)M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p) and Mϵ(f1:t+p)M_\epsilon(f_{1:t}+p)Mϵ​(f1:t​+p), fails: an approximate (even an exact) maximizer can jump arbitrarily under an arbitrarily small change of its input, and MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ is not assumed continuous or even consistent between nearby inputs. Any valid argument must therefore control the two distributions as a whole rather than the decisions point by point, which in the formal development involves Lebesgue measure on Rn\mathbb R^nRn, conditioning on a box and translation invariance.

A second subtlety is that the stability bound depends on how RRR is read, which is the reason for the correction below.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ with dotProduct. All ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ quantities are written as ∑i∣vi∣\sum_i|v_i|∑i​∣vi​∣, never with the default norm (the sup norm). Rewards are a function f : ℕ → Fin n → ℝ read at t=1,…,Tt=1,\ldots,Tt=1,…,T, and f1:tf_{1:t}f1:t​ is prefixSum f t. The perturbation law is Lebesgue measure conditioned on the cube [0,1/η]n[0,1/\eta]^n[0,1/η]n (ProbabilityTheory.cond volume), a probability measure for η>0\eta>0η>0. Maxima over K\mathcal KK are expressed as "for every x∈Kx\in\mathcal Kx∈K", so neither attainment nor boundedness of K\mathcal KK is presupposed.

Conventions and deviations, each also stated in the affected item:

  1. RRR is an oscillation bound. The paper takes R≥max⁡t,x∣ft⋅x∣R\ge\max_{t,x}|f_t\cdot x|R≥maxt,x​∣ft​⋅x∣. With that reading Lemma 9 is false (for K={−1,1}\mathcal K=\{-1,1\}K={−1,1}, the exact maximizer, f1:t−1=−Af_{1:t-1}=-Af1:t−1​=−A, ft=A=Rf_t=A=Rft​=A=R, ηA≤1\eta A\le1ηA≤1, the left side is −2ηRA-2\eta RA−2ηRA), and the printed constant in Theorem 6 does not follow. The proof's step "they can differ by at most RRR" is correct when R≥∣ft⋅x−ft⋅y∣R\ge|f_t\cdot x-f_t\cdot y|R≥∣ft​⋅x−ft​⋅y∣ for x,y∈Kx,y\in\mathcal Kx,y∈K; Lemma 9, the display and Theorem 6 are stated with that hypothesis. The printed hypothesis implies it with 2R2R2R; for non-negative rewards the two coincide.
  2. Expected reward. E[∑tft⋅xt]\mathbf E[\sum_t f_t\cdot x_t]E[∑t​ft​⋅xt​] is written as ∑t∫ft⋅Mϵ(f1:t−1+p) dμη(p)\sum_t\int f_t\cdot M_\epsilon(f_{1:t-1}+p)\,d\mu_\eta(p)∑t​∫ft​⋅Mϵ​(f1:t−1​+p)dμη​(p), which by linearity of expectation is the same for independent or shared perturbations (the paper makes the same observation).
  3. Printed typos. In (13) the summand ftf_tft​ is fτf_\taufτ​ and round ttt uses f1:t−1f_{1:t-1}f1:t−1​; in Lemma 8 and the display, max⁡xf1:t⋅x\max_{x}f_{1:t}\cdot xmaxx​f1:t​⋅x means f1:Tf_{1:T}f1:T​.
  4. Added hypotheses. MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ is measurable (otherwise every expectation would be a Bochner integral of a non-measurable function and equal 000); an approximate maximizer can always be chosen measurable. D,R,A>0D,R,A>0D,R,A>0 and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 make η=D/(RAT)\eta=\sqrt{D/(RAT)}η=D/(RAT)​ a positive real. The display is stated for T≥1T\ge1T≥1 (Lemma 8 needs T≥2T\ge2T≥2 as printed; the case T=1T=1T=1 also holds).
  5. No O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) appears: all constants are the paper's explicit ones.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​ must return points of K\mathcal KK (otherwise DDD would not bound ∥Mϵ(⋅)−Mϵ(⋅)∥1\|M_\epsilon(\cdot)-M_\epsilon(\cdot)\|_1∥Mϵ​(⋅)−Mϵ​(⋅)∥1​), it must be measurable, and the perturbation law is the normalized uniform distribution, not Lebesgue measure restricted to the cube (which is not a probability measure for η≠1\eta\neq1η=1).

Needed infrastructure: the overlap estimate for a cube and its translate, vol([0,1/η]n∩(v+[0,1/η]n))≥(1−η∥v∥1) η−n\mathrm{vol}([0,1/\eta]^n\cap(v+[0,1/\eta]^n))\ge(1-\eta\|v\|_1)\,\eta^{-n}vol([0,1/η]n∩(v+[0,1/η]n))≥(1−η∥v∥1​)η−n, and the integrability of bounded measurable functions of MϵM_\epsilonMϵ​. Both are reusable for any perturbation-based online-learning analysis; contributions of these as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, Operations Research 63(3), 2015; preprint arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361
  • A. Kalai, S. Vempala, Efficient algorithms for online decision problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71(3), 291–307, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcss.2004.10.016
  • J. Hannan, Approximation to Bayes risk in repeated play, Contributions to the Theory of Games III, Annals of Mathematics Studies 39, 97–139, 1957.
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Convex OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Deriving Robust Counterparts of Nonlinear Uncertain Inequalities: For a Regular Nominal Vector, a Concave Uncertain Constraint Holds Robustly iff Its Fenchel Counterpart (FRC) Is SolvableResearch Paper

Motivation

In robust optimization, a decision must satisfy a constraint for every parameter value in a prescribed uncertainty set. A nonlinear uncertain constraint can be difficult to use directly because it contains a universal condition over a continuum of parameters. Ben-Tal, den Hertog, and Vial study constraints whose value is concave in the uncertain parameter. Their Theorem 2 replaces the universal condition by one inequality involving a new vector and two conjugate functions. The replacement is the general framework used for the paper's later examples, including uncertainty regions assembled from simpler sets and nonlinear functions whose conjugates have explicit forms. The discussion paper, §§2–4 is the source for this mission; theorem and page numbers refer to that 2012 version.

The paper's result extends a more specialized counterpart for a linear uncertain constraint under a φ-divergence uncertainty region. That 2013 result has a proved formalization on Prove2Me, but its divergence-specific conjugate and uncertainty set are different objects. The same earlier formalization also supplies a proved version of the self-concordant-barrier statement that this paper quotes as Lemma 33, with a differently printed constant. Neither earlier theorem supplies the general concave-constraint result here.

Setting

Fix dimensions m,n,Lm,n,Lm,n,L. The nominal vector is a0∈Rma^0\in\mathbb R^ma0∈Rm, and A∈Rm×LA\in\mathbb R^{m\times L}A∈Rm×L maps a primitive uncertainty ζ∈Z⊆RL\zeta\in Z\subseteq\mathbb R^Lζ∈Z⊆RL to an uncertain parameter a=a0+Aζa=a^0+A\zetaa=a0+Aζ. Thus the uncertainty set is U={a0+Aζ:ζ∈Z}U=\{a^0+A\zeta:\zeta\in Z\}U={a0+Aζ:ζ∈Z}. The paper assumes that ZZZ is nonempty, convex, and compact, with 000 in its relative interior ri⁡Z\operatorname{ri}ZriZ. Relative interior is taken inside the affine hull of a set, so ZZZ may lie in a lower-dimensional plane.

A decision is x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn. For each decision, D(x)D(x)D(x) is the effective domain of the uncertain constraint f(⋅,x)f(\cdot,x)f(⋅,x): f(a,x)f(a,x)f(a,x) is real on D(x)D(x)D(x) and is interpreted as −∞-\infty−∞ outside it. The function is concave in aaa on D(x)D(x)D(x) for every xxx; the paper imposes no convexity assumption in the decision xxx. The robust constraint (RC) is f(a,x)≤0f(a,x)\le0f(a,x)≤0 for every a∈Ua\in Ua∈U. In the domain representation used here, this means every a∈U∩D(x)a\in U\cap D(x)a∈U∩D(x). The nominal vector is regular when a0∈ri⁡D(x)a^0\in\operatorname{ri}D(x)a0∈riD(x) for every decision xxx, as in Definition 1.

The support function of SSS is δ∗(y∣S)=sup⁡a∈SyTa\delta^*(y\mid S)=\sup_{a\in S}y^Taδ∗(y∣S)=supa∈S​yTa. The partial concave conjugate is f∗(v,x)=inf⁡a∈D(x)(aTv−f(a,x))f_*(v,x)=\inf_{a\in D(x)}(a^Tv-f(a,x))f∗​(v,x)=infa∈D(x)​(aTv−f(a,x)). Both have extended-real values: an empty support set has support value −∞-\infty−∞, and the conjugate can be −∞-\infty−∞ when its infimum is unbounded below. These values matter in the equivalence; replacing them by a default real number changes the constraint.

Formalization targets

The goal is the paper's Theorem 2. Under the standing assumptions and regularity, for every decision xxx,

[∀a∈U∩D(x), f(a,x)≤0]⟺[∃v∈Rm: (a0)Tv+δ∗(ATv∣Z)−f∗(v,x)≤0].\left[\forall a\in U\cap D(x),\ f(a,x)\le0\right] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \left[\exists v\in\mathbb R^m:\ (a^0)^Tv+\delta^*(A^Tv\mid Z)-f_*(v,x)\le0\right].[∀a∈U∩D(x), f(a,x)≤0]⟺[∃v∈Rm: (a0)Tv+δ∗(ATv∣Z)−f∗​(v,x)≤0].

The right-hand inequality is the Fenchel robust counterpart (FRC). Its existence claim is essential: equality of primal and dual infima alone would not show that an auxiliary vector satisfying FRC exists.

Four source statements form the milestone path. Remark 5 gives the weak-duality inequality and the FRC-to-RC implication without concavity. Equations (16)–(18) calculate the support function of UUU. Equation (7) states the relative-interior qualification. Equations (13)–(15) state the worst-case/dual-value identity and, through the printed minimum, attainment of the dual infimum. The milestone list quotes those source passages and identifies their printed pages. Theorem 2 and its proof appear on pp. 4–5.

Significance

The equivalence gives an exact way to replace an infinite family of uncertain inequalities by an existential constraint. In examples where the support function and concave conjugate can be evaluated or represented with standard optimization constraints, it yields a finite robust counterpart. The conclusion remains a mathematical equivalence even when such an explicit representation has not been found. It is also independent of any convexity of fff in the decision variable, a point the paper makes after Corollary 3.

This mission supplies reusable, domain-aware support and conjugate definitions and formal statements for the duality path in the paper's central result. The new goal and milestones are open proof obligations: their Lean declarations compile, but they do not yet have machine-checked proofs. The proved 2013 φ-divergence case is narrower and does not close them. A completed development would make the general relative-interior and attained-duality steps reusable for other robust optimization models.

Difficulty

The delicate point is the direction from RC to the existence of an FRC vector. Weak duality gives only a one-sided bound. Identifying the two optimal values still leaves an existence question when an infimum is not attained. The paper invokes Fenchel duality under a relative-interior intersection condition; replacing relative interior by ordinary interior would exclude lower-dimensional uncertainty sets and effective domains that the source permits. A second difficulty is keeping finite and infinite conjugate values distinct while subtracting them in the counterpart inequality. An unbounded-below conjugate must make a finite-support FRC value +∞+\infty+∞, not a plausible finite number.

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions on Fin m, Fin n, and Fin L; AAA is a real matrix, and dot products use the finite-vector dot product. Mathlib's intrinsicInterior ℝ represents relative interior. The domain map D(x)D(x)D(x) is explicit, with the concavity hypothesis imposed on that domain. The real representative of fff outside D(x)D(x)D(x) is ignored everywhere. The paper's Notation paragraph calls its generic concave functions closed, but the statements here omit closedness: the finite-dimensional duality qualification used for Theorem 2 needs relative-interior overlap, not that extra regularity. This is a stated strengthening of the source theorem, not a change of its feasible points.

Support functions, conjugates, worst-case values, and dual values use EReal. The paper's “max” in (8), (13), and Remark 5 is read as an extended-real supremum; its “min” in (15) is an infimum accompanied by an attaining vector. The support identity includes Z=∅Z=\varnothingZ=∅, where both sides are −∞-\infty−∞, although Theorem 2 keeps the paper's nonempty, convex, compact ZZZ. On the theorem's hypotheses the support value is finite and D(x)D(x)D(x) is nonempty, so the undefined-looking combinations +∞−(+∞)+\infty-(+\infty)+∞−(+∞) and −∞+(+∞)-\infty+(+\infty)−∞+(+∞) cannot occur in FRC. No all-space real-valued substitute for f∗f_*f∗​ is used, and the theorem still quantifies over every decision and every allowed uncertainty vector.

The proof development needs finite-dimensional relative-interior behavior under affine maps and Fenchel duality with attainment. General convex conjugates and support functions can serve later missions. Corollary 3 and the paper's complexity discussion are outside this mission. Theorem A.1 is not separately made a milestone here: as printed, its domain-restricted dual maximum has a problematic −∞-\infty−∞ case; the directly used, attained identity (13)–(15) is the target under the main theorem's standing assumptions.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, J.-P. Vial, Deriving robust counterparts of nonlinear uncertain inequalities, CentER Discussion Paper 2012-053, Tilburg University, 2012. Discussion-paper PDF; journal version, Mathematical Programming, 2015, DOI 10.1007/s10107-014-0750-8.
  • A. Ben-Tal et al., Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities, Management Science, 2013. Prove2Me formalization of its φ-divergence case.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems: Ordering Up to the Newsvendor Level for Penalty b + τh Is Asymptotically Optimal as b → ∞Research Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory systems face a simple choice each period: how much to order before the next demand is known. When unmet demand is lost, the order can affect the stock available several periods later without preserving a backlog that records earlier shortages. This makes the optimal policy difficult to describe when replenishment takes time. An order-up-to policy offers a practical rule: order enough to bring the inventory position to a fixed level. Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong ask when that simple rule performs as well as the best admissible lost-sales policy as the penalty for a lost unit grows. Their working paper, pp. 3–4 and 17–18, proves asymptotic optimality for a particular level obtained from a related backorder system.

The motivating costs are concrete. A lost sale may represent an expedited service part or a missed sale whose cost is much larger than one period of holding inventory. The paper's central comparison concerns the high-penalty regime while holding the demand law, lead time and holding rate fixed. The fixed-level policy can be computed from the distribution of demand over the lead time plus the order period; it does not require solving the full lost-sales control problem. The paper also supplies a finite-penalty bound, which this mission retains as a milestone. Huh et al., pp. 3–4, 17–18.

Setting

Let D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\ldotsD1​,D2​,… be independent, identically distributed nonnegative demands with finite positive mean. An order takes a fixed integer lead time τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 to arrive. At the start of period ttt, the order placed τ\tauτ periods earlier arrives; then a new order is placed, and demand DtD_tDt​ is observed. Unmet demand is lost. At period end, each unit remaining on hand incurs holding cost h>0h>0h>0, and each lost unit incurs penalty b>0b>0b>0. The inventory position counts on-hand units and outstanding orders. An order-up-to-SSS policy raises this position to S≥0S\ge0S≥0 whenever possible.

Write CL,S(h,b)C^{\mathcal L,S}(h,b)CL,S(h,b) for the long-run average cost of that policy and CL∗(h,b)C^{\mathcal L*}(h,b)CL∗(h,b) for the infimum over admissible policies. The corresponding backorder system retains unmet demand as negative net inventory and charges bbb per backordered unit per period. For an order-up-to level SSS, its stationary average cost is

CB,S(h,b)=hE[(S−D)+]+bE[(D−S)+],D=∑i=1τ+1Di.C^{\mathcal B,S}(h,b)=h\mathbb E[(S-\mathbf D)^+]+b\mathbb E[(\mathbf D-S)^+],\qquad \mathbf D=\sum_{i=1}^{\tau+1}D_i.CB,S(h,b)=hE[(S−D)+]+bE[(D−S)+],D=i=1∑τ+1​Di​.

The newsvendor level SB∗(h,b)S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b)SB∗(h,b) is the smallest nonnegative SSS with Pr⁡(D≤S)≥b/(b+h)\Pr(\mathbf D\le S)\ge b/(b+h)Pr(D≤S)≥b/(b+h); it attains the best backorder order-up-to cost CB∗(h,b)C^{\mathcal B*}(h,b)CB∗(h,b). The paper's Assumption 1 concerns this lead-time demand D\mathbf DD: if mD(t)=E[D−t∣D>t]m_{\mathbf D}(t)=\mathbb E[\mathbf D-t\mid\mathbf D>t]mD​(t)=E[D−t∣D>t] when the conditioning event has positive probability and zero otherwise, then mD(t)/t→0m_{\mathbf D}(t)/t\to0mD​(t)/t→0 as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞. Huh et al., pp. 3–4, 9, 11–12.

Formalization targets

Asymptotically optimal order-up-to level

Fix hhh, τ\tauτ and the demand law satisfying Assumption 1. Set Sb+τh=SB∗(h,b+τh)S_{b+\tau h}=S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b+\tau h)Sb+τh​=SB∗(h,b+τh). The goal is the equivalent multiplicative form of Theorem 15(b): for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, all sufficiently large bbb satisfy

inf⁡S≥0CL,S(h,b)≤CL,Sb+τh(h,b)≤(1+ε)CL∗(h,b).\inf_{S\ge0}C^{\mathcal L,S}(h,b)\le C^{\mathcal L,S_{b+\tau h}}(h,b)\le(1+\varepsilon)C^{\mathcal L*}(h,b).S≥0inf​CL,S(h,b)≤CL,Sb+τh​(h,b)≤(1+ε)CL∗(h,b).

The infimum over order-up-to levels captures the paper's best such policy. The right-hand comparator remains the infimum over all admissible lost-sales policies. The multiplicative form also covers an almost-surely constant demand law, where both costs can be zero and a literal ratio would be undefined. Huh et al., Theorem 15(b), p. 17.

Explicit finite-penalty bound

Theorem 15(a) is a milestone. With S′=SB∗(h,b/(τ+1))S'=S^{\mathcal B*}(h,b/(\tau+1))S′=SB∗(h,b/(τ+1)) and ψ(S′;h,q)=qE[(D−S′)+]/(hE[(S′−D)+])\psi(S';h,q)=q\mathbb E[(\mathbf D-S')^+]/(h\mathbb E[(S'-\mathbf D)^+])ψ(S′;h,q)=qE[(D−S′)+]/(hE[(S′−D)+]), its factor is

1+νbψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))1+ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1)),νb=(b+τh)(τ+1)b.\frac{1+\nu_b\psi(S';h,b/(\tau+1))}{1+\psi(S';h,b/(\tau+1))},\qquad \nu_b=\frac{(b+\tau h)(\tau+1)}{b}.1+ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))1+νb​ψ(S′;h,b/(τ+1))​,νb​=b(b+τh)(τ+1)​.

The milestone states the bound where the expected holding quantity in ψ\psiψ is positive. Earlier milestones state the pathwise comparison of the systems, the two-sided average-cost comparison with penalties b/(τ+1)b/(\tau+1)b/(τ+1) and b+τhb+\tau hb+τh, the lower bound on unrestricted lost-sales optimal cost, the newsvendor formula, and the backorder sensitivity results used by the theorem. Huh et al., Lemmas 5, 9, 13 and Theorems 6, 15, pp. 11–18.

Significance

The theorem gives a specific computable stock level whose relative cost loss vanishes in the high-penalty regime. It addresses the gap between a tractable backorder benchmark and the more difficult lost-sales control problem. The finite-penalty factor states how the comparison depends on lead time, holding cost, penalty and the shortage-to-holding ratio; the asymptotic statement alone would not quantify that dependence. The paper establishes these mathematical results; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated Lean targets. Huh et al., pp. 17–18.

Formalizing the result would also supply reusable infrastructure for coupled inventory systems: measurable demand-path laws, pathwise recursions with delayed delivery, extended nonnegative long-run costs, and a clean comparison between an explicit policy and the infimum over unrestricted policies. The backorder newsvendor and mean-residual-life components can be reused beyond this particular lost-sales model.

Difficulty

The backorder system has a closed stationary cost formula, while a lost-sales order-up-to process generally cannot be replaced directly by that formula. The paper notes that its on-hand inventory distribution need not converge from every starting state, even under a fixed order-up-to policy. One must therefore justify the long-run comparison without assuming stationarity from an arbitrary start. A second difficulty is the benchmark: comparing only against other order-up-to policies is too weak to establish Theorem 15, because the goal uses the optimal cost over all admissible lost-sales policies. Huh et al., pp. 14–16, 18.

Formalization scope

Lean reuses the published CappedBaseStock lost-sales model. Its demands are nonnegative and i.i.d. with finite positive mean; τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1 and h,b>0h,b>0h,b>0. Period zero in Lean is period one in the paper. Both coupled processes start with zero on-hand stock and an empty pipeline. Inventory XtX_tXt​ is read immediately after delivery, before current demand. Lost-sales costs lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and use the limsup of expected Cesàro averages; the backorder closed form uses real Bochner expectations under finite-mean demand. The paper's stationary lost-sales cost and this Cesàro cost are identified using its long-run results, but those convergence results are outside this proposal. Huh et al., pp. 14–16.

The paper prints nonnegative rates in Theorem 15, while its displayed newsvendor fraction and shortage-to-holding ratios require positive denominators. Theorem 6(a) therefore states the ratio limit for nonconstant demand laws. The main theorem uses a multiplicative limit bound that also covers constant demand, where the printed ratio is undefined.

The quantity CL∗C^{\mathcal L*}CL∗ is an infimum over measurable, history-dependent policies with private randomization; no attaining policy is assumed. The backorder optimum is an infimum over nonnegative order-up-to levels. Assumption 1 is imposed on the sum of τ+1\tau+1τ+1 demands, and the limit b→∞b\to\inftyb→∞ is expressed by a positive threshold uniform over all parameter records with the fixed lead time and holding rate. The mission excludes a restricted policy comparator, a fixed penalty, a one-period lead-time specialization, and Assumption 1 on single-period demand. Solvers may contribute proofs of any milestone, along with finite-mean and measurability lemmas needed to connect the model to the backorder benchmarks.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt and P. Rusmevichientong, Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems, working paper, December 4, 2006; published in Management Science 55(3), 2009. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0945.
  • G. Janakiraman, S. Seshadri and G. Shanthikumar, A Comparison of the Optimal Costs of Two Canonical Inventory Systems, working paper, Stern School of Business, New York University, 2005; bound quoted in Huh et al., §5, p. 13. Quoted source.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning 1: The Dual-Subgradient Meta-Algorithm Returns a 2ε-Approximate Robust Solution or Certifies Infeasibility within ⌈G²D²/ε²⌉ Oracle CallsResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust optimization protects a decision against every realization of uncertain data in a prescribed uncertainty set. The standard approach replaces the uncertain constraints by a deterministic robust counterpart and solves that counterpart directly (Ben-Tal, El Ghaoui, Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, 2009). The counterpart is often a harder problem than the original: a robust linear program with ellipsoidal uncertainty becomes a second-order cone program, and a robust quadratic program can become a semidefinite program. A practitioner who has an efficient, specialised solver for the nominal problem may therefore have no efficient solver for its robust version.

Ben-Tal, Hazan, Koren and Mannor (arXiv:1402.6361, Operations Research 2015) ask whether the robust problem can be solved by repeatedly calling a solver of the nominal problem, with the number of calls independent of the dimension. Their first answer, the dual-subgradient meta-algorithm of §3.1, does so whenever the constraints are concave in the noise and the uncertainty set is convex. It is a primal–dual scheme: an online-learning algorithm picks the noise, and the nominal solver answers. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3.

Setting

Let D⊆Rn\mathcal D\subseteq\mathbb R^nD⊆Rn be a convex domain, U⊆Rd\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd a convex uncertainty set, and f1,…,fm:Rn×Rd→Rf_1,\dots,f_m:\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rf1​,…,fm​:Rn×Rd→R constraint functions. The robust feasibility problem (3) is

∃ x∈D:fi(x,ui)≤0∀ui∈U, i=1,…,m.\exists\,x\in\mathcal D:\qquad f_i(x,u_i)\le 0\quad\forall u_i\in\mathcal U,\ i=1,\dots,m .∃x∈D:fi​(x,ui​)≤0∀ui​∈U, i=1,…,m.

(An objective is handled by binary search on its value, so feasibility is the core question.) A point x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate solution if fi(x,u)≤ϵf_i(x,u)\le\epsilonfi​(x,u)≤ϵ for all u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U and all iii.

An ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle Oϵ\mathcal O_\epsilonOϵ​ (Figure 1) takes a noise vector u=(u1,…,um)∈Umu=(u_1,\dots,u_m)\in\mathcal U^mu=(u1​,…,um​)∈Um and either returns some x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D with fi(x,ui)≤ϵf_i(x,u_i)\le\epsilonfi​(x,ui​)≤ϵ for all iii, or answers "infeasible", which it may do only if no x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D has fi(x,ui)≤0f_i(x,u_i)\le 0fi​(x,ui​)≤0 for all iii.

The standing assumptions of §3.1 are: each fi(⋅,u)f_i(\cdot,u)fi​(⋅,u) is convex on D\mathcal DD; each fi(x,⋅)f_i(x,\cdot)fi​(x,⋅) is concave on U\mathcal UU for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D; D≥∥u−v∥2D\ge\|u-v\|_2D≥∥u−v∥2​ for all u,v∈Uu,v\in\mathcal Uu,v∈U; and ∥∇ufi(x,u)∥2≤G\|\nabla_u f_i(x,u)\|_2\le G∥∇u​fi​(x,u)∥2​≤G for x∈Dx\in\mathcal Dx∈D, u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U. Write PPP for the Euclidean projection onto U\mathcal UU.

Algorithm 1 sets T=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉T=\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceilT=⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ and η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​), starts from u10,…,um0∈Uu^0_1,\dots,u^0_m\in\mathcal Uu10​,…,um0​∈U, and for t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T updates

uit=P(uit−1+η ∇ufi(xt−1,uit−1)),xt=Oϵ(u1t,…,umt),u^t_i=P\bigl(u^{t-1}_i+\eta\,\nabla_u f_i(x^{t-1},u^{t-1}_i)\bigr),\qquad x^t=\mathcal O_\epsilon(u^t_1,\dots,u^t_m),uit​=P(uit−1​+η∇u​fi​(xt−1,uit−1​)),xt=Oϵ​(u1t​,…,umt​),

stopping with "infeasible" as soon as the oracle says so, and otherwise returning xˉ=1T∑t=1Txt\bar x=\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T x^txˉ=T1​∑t=1T​xt. In Lean these are alg1T, alg1Eta, alg1U, alg1X, alg1Output and alg1Calls in the namespace OracleRO.DualSubgrad.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 7)

For every ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate oracle,

output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬ ∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi(x,u)≤0,\text{output}=\text{"infeasible"}\ \Longrightarrow\ \neg\,\exists x\in\mathcal D\ \forall i\ \forall u\in\mathcal U:\ f_i(x,u)\le 0,output="infeasible" ⟹ ¬∃x∈D ∀i ∀u∈U: fi​(x,u)≤0, output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,\text{output}=\bar x\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar x\in\mathcal D\ \text{ and }\ f_i(\bar x,u)\le 2\epsilon\ \ \forall i,\ \forall u\in\mathcal U,output=xˉ ⟹ xˉ∈D  and  fi​(xˉ,u)≤2ϵ  ∀i, ∀u∈U,

and the number of oracle calls is at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 5, Zinkevich 2003): projected online gradient ascent with step η=D/(GT)\eta=D/(G\sqrt T)η=D/(GT​) on concave rewards has regret ∑tft(x∗)−∑tft(xt)≤GDT\sum_t f_t(x^*)-\sum_t f_t(x_t)\le GD\sqrt T∑t​ft​(x∗)−∑t​ft​(xt​)≤GDT​ for every x∗x^*x∗ in the decision set.
  2. (6) (p. 7): if a point is returned, 1T∑t=1Tfi(xt,uit)≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le\epsilonT1​∑t=1T​fi​(xt,uit​)≤ϵ for every iii.
  3. (7) (p. 8): for every iii and u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U, 1T∑tfi(xt,u)−1T∑tfi(xt,uit)≤GD/T≤ϵ\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)-\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u^t_i)\le GD/\sqrt T\le\epsilonT1​∑t​fi​(xt,u)−T1​∑t​fi​(xt,uit​)≤GD/T​≤ϵ.
  4. Final inequality of the proof (p. 8): fi(xˉ,u)≤1T∑tfi(xt,u)f_i(\bar x,u)\le\frac1T\sum_t f_i(x^t,u)fi​(xˉ,u)≤T1​∑t​fi​(xt,u) for u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any approximate solver of the nominal problem into an approximate solver of its robust counterpart, at a cost of ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ solver calls, a number that depends on the geometry of U\mathcal UU and the sensitivity of the constraints to the noise but not on nnn, ddd or mmm. It is the prototype of the paper's oracle-based reductions: the same primal–dual template, with a different online learner, gives the dual-perturbation algorithm of §3.2–3.3 for non-convex uncertainty sets, and the applications of §4 (robust linear programs, quadratic programs, semidefinite programs) instantiate it.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; none of it is machine-checked. A formal development adds a checked statement of the reduction with an explicit call count in place of the paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), and a reusable regret bound for projected online gradient ascent on concave rewards (Lemma 1), which the paper quotes from Zinkevich without proof and which many other online-learning results rest on.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for the dual side fails at one point: in round ttt the primal point xtx^txt is computed from utu^tut, so the reward fi(xt,⋅)f_i(x^t,\cdot)fi​(xt,⋅) that the dual player faces depends on its own current move. A regret bound that assumed rewards fixed in advance, or drawn independently of the learner's play, would not apply. Lemma 1 must be used in its adversarial form, valid for every sequence of reward functions, including adaptively chosen ones. A second point is that the projection step requires the variational characterization of a nearest point in a convex set, which a mere "map into U\mathcal UU" does not provide.

Formalization scope

Points are elements of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin k), so every norm is the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm. The projection is a predicate IsProjOnto U P (each P(y)P(y)P(y) is a nearest point of U\mathcal UU to yyy), not a construction; the oracle is a function (Fin m → E d) → Option (E n) with none for "infeasible", constrained by the predicate IsApproxOracle on inputs in Um\mathcal U^mUm. The goal is quantified over every oracle meeting that specification. The gradient ∇ufi(x,u)\nabla_u f_i(x,u)∇u​fi​(x,u) is a given map gradU with HasGradientAt at points of U\mathcal UU; no differentiability in xxx is assumed. Rounds are indexed by natural numbers with index 000 for the initialization; the starting primal point x0∈Dx^0\in\mathcal Dx0∈D, used by the first update and left undefined by the algorithm, is an input. Hypotheses D>0D>0D>0 and G>0G>0G>0 are added so that η\etaη and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 are meaningful. Maxima over U\mathcal UU are stated as "for every u∈Uu\in\mathcal Uu∈U".

Explicit instantiations and corrections:

  • The paper's "O(G2D2/ϵ2)O(G^2D^2/\epsilon^2)O(G2D2/ϵ2) calls" is stated as at most ⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉\lceil G^2D^2/\epsilon^2\rceil⌈G2D2/ϵ2⌉ calls (one call per round, TTT rounds).
  • Lemma 1's "G≥max⁡t∥ft(xt)∥G\ge\max_t\|f_t(x_t)\|G≥maxt​∥ft​(xt​)∥" is read as the gradient bound ∥∇ft(xt)∥≤G\|\nabla f_t(x_t)\|\le G∥∇ft​(xt​)∥≤G, as the same sentence describes it.
  • The proof's "Combining (10) and (12)" refers to (6) and (7).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: an oracle specification under which "infeasible" is never returned, or an output that is not the average of the oracle's answers, would not be Theorem 3. The "infeasible" conclusion is about the robust problem, not the nominal one.

A complete development needs the variational inequality for nearest points in a convex set, the gradient (supergradient) inequality for a concave function differentiable at a point of a convex set, Zinkevich's telescoping argument, and Jensen's inequality for finite averages. The first two and Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal, E. Hazan, T. Koren, S. Mannor, Oracle-Based Robust Optimization via Online Learning, arXiv:1402.6361v1, 2014; Operations Research 63(3), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.6361v1
  • M. Zinkevich, Online Convex Programming and Generalized Infinitesimal Gradient Ascent, ICML 2003. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3041838.3041955
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
  • E. Hazan, Introduction to Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Optimization, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.05207
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems 1: Finite-Sample Confidence Region for the Mean and CovarianceResearch Paper

Motivation

An optimization model often needs a probability distribution for an uncertain cost or demand, while a practitioner has only a finite sample from that distribution. Replacing the distribution by the empirical one can hide uncertainty in its estimated mean and covariance. Delage and Ye use a finite-sample confidence region for these two moments to justify a distributional ambiguity set in data-driven stochastic programming Delage and Ye, 2010. The present mission concerns the confidence region itself: it asks how far the population moments can be from the sample estimates when the normalized random vector has bounded support.

The source for every theorem index and page number here is the authors' draft dated 20 February 2008, not an independently checked pagination of the published article. Its §4 starts from independent observations and Assumption 4, then obtains a sample-mean bound, a covariance bound around the known mean, and finally the joint bound for estimates computed entirely from the sample.

Setting

Let ξ∈Rm\xi\in\mathbb R^mξ∈Rm have distribution PPP, mean μ=EP[ξ]\mu=\mathbb E_P[\xi]μ=EP​[ξ], and covariance Σ=EP[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]\Sigma=\mathbb E_P[(\xi-\mu)(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T]Σ=EP​[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]. Assume Σ\SigmaΣ is positive definite. For M≥1M\ge1M≥1 independent observations ξ1,…,ξM\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_Mξ1​,…,ξM​, the empirical mean and empirical covariance in this section are

μ^=1M∑i=1Mξi,Σ^=1M∑i=1M(ξi−μ^)(ξi−μ^)T.\widehat\mu=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M\xi_i,\qquad \widehat\Sigma=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)^\mathsf T.μ​=M1​i=1∑M​ξi​,Σ=M1​i=1∑M​(ξi​−μ​)(ξi​−μ​)T.

The divisor is MMM, including for the covariance; the paper's earlier discussion of an unbiased estimator with divisor M−1M-1M−1 does not govern §4. When the true mean is known, write Σ^(μ)=M−1∑i(ξi−μ)(ξi−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=M^{-1}\sum_i(\xi_i-\mu)(\xi_i-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=M−1∑i​(ξi​−μ)(ξi​−μ)T. Matrix order A⪯BA\preceq BA⪯B means B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite. The squared Mahalanobis distance of a vector vvv is vTΣ−1vv^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}vvTΣ−1v.

Assumption 4 bounds the normalized observations: for some R≥0R\ge0R≥0, (ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\xi-\mu)\le R^2(ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2 with probability one. Equivalently, ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ)\zeta=\Sigma^{-1/2}(\xi-\mu)ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ) lies almost surely in a Euclidean ball of radius RRR; it has mean zero and covariance III. The sample law is PMP^MPM, the product measure of MMM identical copies. These choices make the probability in each target an assertion about genuinely independent observations.

Formalization targets

Simultaneous confidence region

For 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1, set

α(t)=R2M(1−mR4+log⁡(1/t)),β(t)=R2M(2+2log⁡(1/t))2.\alpha(t)=\frac{R^2}{\sqrt M}\left(\sqrt{1-\frac m{R^4}}+\sqrt{\log(1/t)}\right),\qquad \beta(t)=\frac{R^2}{M}\left(2+\sqrt{2\log(1/t)}\right)^2.α(t)=M​R2​(1−R4m​​+log(1/t)​),β(t)=MR2​(2+2log(1/t)​)2.

Theorem 2 is the goal. Write a=α(δ/4)a=\alpha(\delta/4)a=α(δ/4) and b=β(δ/2)b=\beta(\delta/2)b=β(δ/2), and assume a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1. The target is the simultaneous event

(μ^−μ)TΣ−1(μ^−μ)≤b,Σ⪯Σ^1−a−b,Σ^1+a⪯Σ(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\widehat\mu-\mu)\le b, \qquad \Sigma\preceq\frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1-a-b}, \qquad \frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1+a}\preceq\Sigma(μ​−μ)TΣ−1(μ​−μ)≤b,Σ⪯1−a−bΣ​,1+aΣ​⪯Σ

with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. The last denominator is a correction: printed (12c) says 1−a1-a1−a, while the authors' union-bound display on draft p. 13 says 1+a1+a1+a. The printed version fails, for example, for symmetric ±1\pm1±1 observations, whose sample covariance is 1−μ^21-\widehat\mu^21−μ​2 and for which its claimed lower bound would require an implausibly large sample-mean square. The proof's displayed bound gives the stated 1+a1+a1+a draft pp. 13–14.

Supporting results

Lemma 2 bounds the normalized sample mean. Corollary 1 turns it into the Mahalanobis bound for μ^−μ\widehat\mu-\muμ​−μ. Lemma 3 gives a two-sided matrix bound for M−1∑iζiζiTM^{-1}\sum_i\zeta_i\zeta_i^\mathsf TM−1∑i​ζi​ζiT​; Corollary 2 transfers that bound to Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ). A separate theorem item states the centring identity Σ^(μ)=Σ^+(μ^−μ)(μ^−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=\widehat\Sigma+(\widehat\mu-\mu)(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=Σ+(μ​−μ)(μ​−μ)T. The final milestone is the rank-one matrix inequality used in Theorem 2's proof. Their statements follow the draft's §4.1–4.2.

Significance

The joint region places both true moments inside explicit data-dependent matrix inequalities at a chosen confidence level. That is the statistical input for the paper's later moment-based distributional uncertainty sets. The result is known in the source; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its corrected statement and its supporting concentration and matrix results. The Lean items are currently open theorem statements, so a successful draft compilation does not constitute formal verification of the inequalities.

Related platform results include a proved two-sided constant-bound McDiarmid inequality (UnderstandingML.mcdiarmid_inequality_pi) and an open per-coordinate upper-tail version (StabGen.Uniform.mcdiarmid_inequality). Neither is identical to the cited Theorem 1 of this draft, so the milestone list starts with the paper's Lemma 2 and does not restate Theorem 1.

Difficulty

The known-mean covariance estimate is a sum of outer products of normalized observations. Controlling its largest and smallest eigenvalues together requires concentration of a matrix-valued statistic, rather than a separate scalar bound for each entry. Once the true mean is replaced by μ^\widehat\muμ​, the covariance changes by a rank-one matrix; the mean bound must control that correction in Loewner order. A direct replacement of Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ) by Σ^\widehat\SigmaΣ therefore does not preserve both sides of Corollary 2 automatically.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ, and matrices are real Fin m × Fin m matrices. The Euclidean squared length is a dot product; Lean's generic norm on functions is a supremum norm and is not used for it. The Loewner order is (B - A).PosSemidef. The distribution has a probability measure and coordinatewise finite L2L^2L2 moments, so its real-valued mean and covariance integrals are well defined. The true covariance is positive definite, reflecting the section's nonsingularity assumption. Samples have the product law PMP^MPM. The chapter's normalized case records zero mean, identity covariance, and the almost-sure ball bound.

Every statistical result assumes 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1; the logarithms and confidence levels are then in their intended domain. Positive MMM rules out division by zero in empirical averages. Lemma 3 carries the paper's explicit sample-size threshold, and the goal reads “MMM large enough” as a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1, which keeps the upper covariance denominator positive. The expression under the other square root is nonnegative in every satisfiable positive-dimensional normalized setting, because E∥ζ∥22=m≤R2\mathbb E\|\zeta\|_2^2=m\le R^2E∥ζ∥22​=m≤R2. It is not an added assumption. The probability conclusions use ≥1−δ\ge1-\delta≥1−δ, which is what the paper's proofs show despite the phrase “greater than.”

The goal assumes the source's distributional and support conditions, not the probability conclusions of its supporting corollaries. This prevents a vacuous route that merely postulates the desired confidence event. A complete proof will need reusable product-measure concentration facts, moment and matrix algebra, and a positive-definite quadratic-form bridge. Contributions to those components and to each milestone are in scope. Corollary 3's data-derived radius is excluded because the draft's conditioning argument does not establish its claimed confidence level. Corollary 4 as a probability statement, Theorem 3, and Corollary 5 depend on it; Remark 2 concerns a separate Gaussian eigenvalue density.

Selected references

  • Erick Delage and Yinyu Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3), 595–612, 2010; source used here: authors' draft of 20 February 2008. DOI.
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimization under Variants of the Nested Logit Model 1: If the Restricted LP Optimum Scaled by α Is Feasible for the Full LP, Its Assortment Earns Within a Factor α of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer that sells products in several categories, channels or stores has to decide which products to offer in each. Customers substitute: a product left out of the assortment sends some of its demand to other products, and some of it away. The nested logit model (McFadden 1974, 1981) is the standard choice model for this situation. It groups products into nests, so that substitution within a nest differs from substitution across nests. Assortment optimization under this model asks which products to offer in each nest so as to maximize expected revenue.

Davis, Gallego and Topaloglu (Oper. Res. 62(2), 2014) split the problem into four cases: dissimilarity parameters at most one or unrestricted, and nests that are fully or only partially captured. The problem is polynomially solvable in the first case and NP-hard in the other three. Every approximation guarantee in the paper for the hard cases (Theorems 7, 10, 11, 12) comes from one general framework, set up in §2: a linear program equivalent to the assortment problem, and Theorem 1, which turns a feasibility certificate for that linear program into a performance guarantee. This mission formalizes that framework.

Setting

There are mmm nests MMM and nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n} in each nest. Product jjj of nest iii has revenue rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and preference weight vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, and the products in each nest are ordered so that ri1≥⋯≥rinr_{i1} \ge \dots \ge r_{in}ri1​≥⋯≥rin​. Nest iii has a no-purchase weight vi0≥0v_{i0} \ge 0vi0​≥0 and a dissimilarity parameter γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0. The weight of choosing no nest at all is v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0. If the assortment Si⊆NS_i \subseteq NSi​⊆N is offered in nest iii, write

Vi(Si)=vi0+∑j∈Sivij,Ri(Si)=∑j∈SirijvijVi(Si),Ri(∅)=0.V_i(S_i) = v_{i0} + \sum_{j \in S_i} v_{ij}, \qquad R_i(S_i) = \frac{\sum_{j\in S_i} r_{ij} v_{ij}}{V_i(S_i)}, \quad R_i(\emptyset) = 0 .Vi​(Si​)=vi0​+j∈Si​∑​vij​,Ri​(Si​)=Vi​(Si​)∑j∈Si​​rij​vij​​,Ri​(∅)=0.

A customer picks nest iii with probability Qi=Vi(Si)γi/(v0+∑l∈MVl(Sl)γl)Q_i = V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i} / (v_0 + \sum_{l\in M} V_l(S_l)^{\gamma_l})Qi​=Vi​(Si​)γi​/(v0​+∑l∈M​Vl​(Sl​)γl​), and then a product of that nest by the multinomial logit model. The expected revenue is

Π(S1,…,Sm)=∑i∈MQi(S1,…,Sm) Ri(Si),\Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m) = \sum_{i \in M} Q_i(S_1, \dots, S_m)\, R_i(S_i),Π(S1​,…,Sm​)=i∈M∑​Qi​(S1​,…,Sm​)Ri​(Si​),

and problem (2) is Z∗=max⁡Si⊆NΠ(S1,…,Sm)Z^* = \max_{S_i \subseteq N} \Pi(S_1, \dots, S_m)Z∗=maxSi​⊆N​Π(S1​,…,Sm​).

The linear program (3) in the variables (x,y1,…,ym)(x, y_1, \dots, y_m)(x,y1​,…,ym​) minimizes xxx subject to

v0x≥∑i∈Myi,yi≥Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x)∀Si⊆N, i∈M.v_0 x \ge \sum_{i\in M} y_i, \qquad y_i \ge V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}\big(R_i(S_i) - x\big) \quad \forall S_i \subseteq N,\ i \in M.v0​x≥i∈M∑​yi​,yi​≥Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x)∀Si​⊆N, i∈M.

Given candidate collections {Ait:t∈Ti}\{A_{it} : t \in \mathcal T_i\}{Ait​:t∈Ti​} of assortments for each nest, the linear program (4) is (3) with the second family of constraints imposed only for SiS_iSi​ in the collection of nest iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 13)

Let (x^,y^)(\hat x, \hat y)(x^,y^​) be an optimal solution of (4), and let S^i\hat S_iS^i​ solve max⁡Si∈{Ait}Vi(Si)γi(Ri(Si)−x^)\max_{S_i \in \{A_{it}\}} V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}(R_i(S_i) - \hat x)maxSi​∈{Ait​}​Vi​(Si​)γi​(Ri​(Si​)−x^), problem (5), in every nest. If (αx^,βy^)(\alpha \hat x, \beta \hat y)(αx^,βy^​) is feasible for (3) for some α,β\alpha, \betaα,β, then, with Z^=Π(S^1,…,S^m)\hat Z = \Pi(\hat S_1, \dots, \hat S_m)Z^=Π(S^1​,…,S^m​),

αZ^ ≥ Z∗ ≥ Z^.\alpha \hat Z \ \ge\ Z^* \ \ge\ \hat Z .αZ^ ≥ Z∗ ≥ Z^.

The theorem fixes no candidate collection and no value of α\alphaα. Each later section of the paper instantiates it with its own collection and its own factor, so a formal proof applies to all of them.

Milestones (§2, pp. 11–12)

  1. Problem (2) is equivalent to (3): Z∗Z^*Z∗ is the least xxx for which some yyy makes (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) feasible for (3).
  2. At an optimal solution of (4), the first constraint binds at the maximizers S^i\hat S_iS^i​ of (5), and x^=Π(S^1,…,S^m)\hat x = \Pi(\hat S_1, \dots, \hat S_m)x^=Π(S^1​,…,S^m​).
  3. Problem (4) relaxes (3), so x^≤Z∗\hat x \le Z^*x^≤Z∗.

Companions (§7, pp. 29–30)

  • The tighter program (16), which lets each nest's assortment be a fractional vector zi∈[0,1]nz_i \in [0,1]^nzi​∈[0,1]n, has every feasible xxx above Z∗Z^*Z∗.
  • Proposition 13: F^i(x)=max⁡zi∈[0,1]nFi(zi∣x)\hat F_i(x) = \max_{z_i \in [0,1]^n} F_i(z_i \mid x)F^i​(x)=maxzi​∈[0,1]n​Fi​(zi​∣x) is convex, with subgradient −(vi0+∑jvijz^ij(x))γi-(v_{i0} + \sum_j v_{ij}\hat z_{ij}(x))^{\gamma_i}−(vi0​+∑j​vij​z^ij​(x))γi​ at xxx.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the common step behind the paper's four approximation guarantees: the factor ρ\rhoρ or 2κ2\kappa2κ of Theorem 7, the factor 2 of Theorem 10, the factor of Theorem 11, and the δ2γˉ+1\delta^{2\bar\gamma+1}δ2γˉ​+1 of Theorem 12. Each of these reduces to checking that a scaled optimum of a small linear program is feasible for (3). With Theorem 1 formalized, those guarantees reduce to inequalities about candidate collections, which are the subject of the sister missions of this series. The upper bound (16) and Proposition 13 give the instance-specific bound that the paper uses to assess its assortments numerically.

The results are proved in the paper. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. The formal work adds two things: the statements below are made exact at the degenerate inputs the prose passes over (an empty assortment, v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0), and a formal proof certifies the framework once for every later instantiation.

Difficulty

The equivalence of (2) and (3) rests on decomposing a maximum over joint assortments into a sum of per-nest maxima, and on reading the fractional objective Π≤x\Pi \le xΠ≤x as a linear constraint. Both steps need care where a denominator v0+∑iVi(Si)γiv_0 + \sum_i V_i(S_i)^{\gamma_i}v0​+∑i​Vi​(Si​)γi​ can vanish. The binding argument for (4) is a perturbation argument: lowering x^\hat xx^ must keep every constraint satisfiable, which needs a continuity and monotonicity property of the right-hand side in xxx. The obvious one-line reading of Theorem 1, "x^=Z^\hat x = \hat Zx^=Z^ and αx^≥Z∗\alpha\hat x \ge Z^*αx^≥Z∗", is correct only once both of these facts are established with their hypotheses. In particular, it is false when v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0 (see below). Proposition 13 requires that the supremum over the box be finite, which comes from the boundedness of FiF_iFi​ on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n.

Formalization scope

Nests are a finite type ι and products are Fin n, indexed 0,…,n−10, \dots, n-10,…,n−1. An assortment is a finite set of products per nest, and a candidate collection is a set of such finite sets. Powers are real powers, and Lean's x/0=0x / 0 = 0x/0=0 gives Ri(∅)=0R_i(\emptyset) = 0Ri​(∅)=0. Z∗Z^*Z∗ is Π(S∗)\Pi(S^*)Π(S∗) for an arbitrary optimal assortment S∗S^*S∗; no supremum over assortments is taken. "Optimal solution of (4)" means feasible with minimal xxx, and "S^i\hat S_iS^i​ solves (5)" means S^i\hat S_iS^i​ belongs to the collection of nest iii and maximizes the objective of (5) over it at x^\hat xx^.

Standing assumptions and pins. These are v0,vi0≥0v_0, v_{i0} \ge 0v0​,vi0​≥0 and ordered revenues, together with vij>0v_{ij} > 0vij​>0, rij≥0r_{ij} \ge 0rij​≥0 and γi>0\gamma_i > 0γi​>0. The paper allows zero-weight padding products and γi=0\gamma_i = 0γi​=0, but its own conventions fail there. Theorem 1 and the binding milestone add v0>0v_0 > 0v0​>0. The page allows v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, but then Theorem 1 is false: take one nest with v10=0v_{10} = 0v10​=0, γ1=1\gamma_1 = 1γ1​=1, r11=v11=1r_{11} = v_{11} = 1r11​=v11​=1 and candidates {∅,{1}}\{\emptyset, \{1\}\}{∅,{1}}. Then x^=1\hat x = 1x^=1 and S^1=∅\hat S_1 = \emptysetS^1​=∅ meet every hypothesis with α=β=1\alpha = \beta = 1α=β=1, yet Z^=0<Z∗=1\hat Z = 0 < Z^* = 1Z^=0<Z∗=1. The equivalence of (2) and (3) and the bound from (16) keep v0≥0v_0 \ge 0v0​≥0, as the page does, and assume at least one nest and one product: with neither and v0=0v_0 = 0v0​=0, every xxx is feasible for (3).

A formalization that assumes the binding equality, the identity x^=Z^\hat x = \hat Zx^=Z^, or the inequality x^≤Z∗\hat x \le Z^*x^≤Z∗ in the goal would trivialize it. Those facts appear only as milestones. Likewise, reading "optimal solution of (4)" as mere feasibility would make the goal false rather than easier.

The development needs only finite sums, real powers and elementary order reasoning. Proposition 13 also needs the boundedness of a continuous function on a box and the convexity of a pointwise supremum of affine functions. Welcome contributions include proofs of the milestones, the goal from them, and reusable lemmas on the per-nest decomposition of maxima, which the sister missions of this series use as well.

Selected references

  • J. M. Davis, G. Gallego, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization under variants of the nested logit model, Operations Research 62(2), 2014 (revised manuscript of June 18, 2013, cited here). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1256
  • D. McFadden, Econometric models of probabilistic choice, in C. Manski, D. McFadden (eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, MIT Press, 1981. https://eml.berkeley.edu/~mcfadden/discrete.html
  • P. Rusmevichientong, D. Shmoys, H. Topaloglu, Assortment optimization with mixtures of logits, Technical report, Cornell University, 2010. https://people.orie.cornell.edu/huseyin/publications/publications.html
  • M. S. Bazaraa, H. D. Sherali, C. M. Shetty, Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1002/0471787779
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