Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control: BoundsResearch Paper
Motivation
An inventory policy specifies how much stock to hold before demand arrives. Its financial value is the expected sum of holding and shortage costs. Learning a useful policy and estimating its value are different statistical tasks. This proposal starts the formalization of the principal bounds in Qin, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control, using the September 29, 2026 arXiv version as a fixed source.
Setting
There are periods, independent bounded demands, positive holding and shortage costs, zero ordering costs, zero lead time, and zero terminal salvage. An action must satisfy . The one-period cost is . Backlog has next state ; lost sales has next state and observes only . An error tolerance always refers to total expected cost, not average cost per period. A scalar observation is counted once even if an algorithm reuses it in several periods.
The first fully specified statistical target is the stationary valuation lower bound. Holding and shortage costs are both one, the initial inventory is one, and IID demands equal zero with probability and one otherwise. The optimal value is defined by the actual finite-horizon Bellman infimum over feasible real actions. It is not defined to equal the formula being proved. An arbitrary randomized estimator is a Markov kernel from the finite binary archive to the real line; the same kernel is used under both laws. This includes deterministic estimators as point-mass kernels.
Formalization targets
The first target is Theorem 3.7, including its confidence dependence. Put . For , , and , simultaneous -accuracy on the two instances with probability at least requires
Its milestones establish zero-base-stock optimality, the exact value polynomial, its derivative and quadratic sensitivity, value separation, the KL bound, and the testing reduction. The derivative has a complete local Lean proof; the other statistical proof obligations remain open. The numerical constant is retained to match the source exactly.
The complete requested program also retains the adaptive full-observation policy lower bound (Theorem 3.1), the censored lower bound and integer-count correction (Theorem 3.3 and Proposition 3.5), the stationary policy upper bound (Proposition 4.5 and Corollary 4.7), the Product ERM benchmark, and the censored upper and matching minimax rate (Section 5.4). Their full statistical encodings have not yet been added to this initial draft. They must not be inferred from the first target or from the elementary supporting lemmas. The local source map records their assumptions and dependencies.
Significance
The valuation family has a common known optimal policy, yet estimating its cost requires a cubic number of scalar observations in the horizon at fixed accuracy and confidence. This gives a concrete distinction between identifying an action and measuring its consequences. The first target preserves both the inherited-stock condition and the full confidence factor; replacing inherited stock by an empty start would change the claim.
Five additional supporting statements isolate qualified recensoring, one-period truncation, cap closure, ERM regret transfer, and optimal-value stability. They are shared by later bounds. These five results and the value-polynomial derivative have passed local Lean checking in the pinned environment; their axiom audits show only propext, Classical.choice, and Quot.sound, with no sorryAx. This is local evidence, not server verification. A correct proof of the one-period truncation identity alone does not establish dynamic optimality, statistical coverage, or a minimax rate. Likewise a deterministic ERM inequality does not prove uniform convergence.
Difficulty
The information lower bounds quantify over data-dependent randomized procedures. Encoding only a fixed allocation or a deterministic output would lose part of the intended theorem. The full policy lower bound additionally permits adaptive sampling and randomized deployment, so it needs a different transcript model from the IID stationary valuation module. Censored upper bounds require conditional independence given the entire boundary array; ordinary predictability is insufficient. The factor counts all prescribed logs, including discarded observations.
Upper bounds depend on the horizon-normalized convergence result from Xie, Ma and Xin, now included in the companion draft VC Theory for Inventory Policies: Xie–Ma–Xin Bounds. The source cited here as Corollary 4 is Corollary 4.10 in that paper's v3; Theorem 4.9 is its inventory fat-shattering ingredient. The companion also retains stationary and (s,S) upper and lower bound families and Product ERM. Its Lemma 4.12 cyclic partition has a complete local Lean proof. Statistical convergence, two-sided and periodwise-cost extensions, high-probability product transfer, and the censoring reductions remain open proof obligations. Neither this draft nor its companion assumes those results have already been formally proved.
Formalization scope
The environment is Lean 4.33.1 with Mathlib revision 0df444a360eaa60ab8c11dca51a86af692955474. Draft theorem statements contain sorry because they are proof targets. Definition files contain no unproved assertions. Locally checked solution files must be distinguished from platform-verified proofs; a draft upload performs no server verification. Independent read-backs accompany the items so their quantifiers, domains, and total-function conventions can be reviewed directly.
The Bellman definition uses real infima. Proving nonemptiness and lower boundedness of the feasible objective set belongs to its optimality proof. Probability interpretations of finite sample weights apply only when ; the hard-instance parameter bounds enforce an interior interval. The zero-sample case remains available to the testing theorem. No hypothesis assumes the desired lower bound, optimal-value formula, or derivative bound.
This is an editable initial draft, with the stationary valuation module and common algebraic foundations. It is not a certificate that all bounds in the paper have been formally proved, nor a launch-ready encoding of the complete bounds program.
Selected references
- Hanzhang Qin, David Simchi-Levi and Ruihao Zhu, Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control: Learning, Valuation, and Censoring, arXiv:2609.37380v1, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37380v1
- Yaqi Xie, Will Ma and Linwei Xin, VC Theory for Inventory Policies, arXiv:2404.11509v3, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11509v3