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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems I: Using the EOQ Order Quantity in the Stochastic (Q, r) Model Raises Costs by at Most 1/8Research Paper

Motivation

The economic order quantity (EOQ) is the most widely used formula in inventory management. It assumes that demand is a deterministic constant stream. Real demand is random, and the model that accounts for this, the continuous-review (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) policy with stochastic demand, has no closed-form optimum: for decades its optimal parameters were computed numerically, one instance at a time, which gave little insight into how the stochastic system behaves. Practitioners nevertheless kept using the EOQ quantity in stochastic systems and observed that the cost penalty was small (Wagner, O'Hagan and Lundh 1965; Naddor 1975; Archibald and Silver 1978), without an analytical explanation.

Zheng (Management Science 38(1), 1992) supplied that explanation. By minimising the average cost first over the reorder point and then over the order quantity, he obtained two simple optimality equations and compared the stochastic model with the EOQ model under the same cost structure. One of the results is the goal of this mission: for every leadtime-demand distribution, using the EOQ order quantity in the stochastic system raises the average cost by at most one eighth. The paper extends Federgruen and Zheng (1988), who treated the discrete-demand version of the cost function.

Setting

A single item faces demand at rate λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. Orders are delivered after a fixed leadtime L>0L > 0L>0, and stockouts are backordered. Each order costs a fixed K>0K > 0K>0. Inventory is held at cost rate h>0h > 0h>0 per unit and backorders are penalised at cost rate p>0p > 0p>0 per unit. Let D≥0D \ge 0D≥0 be the demand during a leadtime, with mean E(D)=λLE(D) = \lambda LE(D)=λL. The newsvendor cost

G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+]G(y) = E\big[h(y - D)^+ + p(D - y)^+\big]G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+]

is the rate at which expected inventory costs accrue at time t+Lt + Lt+L when the inventory position at time ttt is yyy. It is convex, and it is assumed, as in the paper, to attain its minimum at a unique point y0y^0y0.

A (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) policy orders QQQ units whenever the inventory position falls to the reorder point rrr. Its long-run average cost is

c(Q,r)=λK+∫rr+QG(y) dyQ.(1)c(Q, r) = \frac{\lambda K + \int_r^{r+Q} G(y)\,dy}{Q}. \qquad (1)c(Q,r)=QλK+∫rr+Q​G(y)dy​.(1)

For a fixed Q>0Q > 0Q>0 let r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) be an optimal reorder point, and set

H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0),C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)),A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0QH(y) dy.H(Q) = G(r(Q)) \ (Q > 0),\quad H(0) = G(y^0),\quad C(Q) = c(Q, r(Q)),\quad A(Q) = Q H(Q) - \int_0^Q H(y)\,dy .H(Q)=G(r(Q)) (Q>0),H(0)=G(y0),C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)),A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0Q​H(y)dy.

C(Q)C(Q)C(Q) is the average cost when the reorder point is chosen optimally for QQQ; an order quantity Q∗>0Q^* > 0Q∗>0 minimising CCC over Q>0Q > 0Q>0 is the optimal order quantity, and C∗=C(Q∗)C^* = C(Q^*)C∗=C(Q∗) is the optimal cost.

The EOQ model is the special case in which the leadtime demand is the constant λL\lambda LλL. Its cost rate is Gd(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+G_d(y) = h(y - \lambda L)^+ + p(\lambda L - y)^+Gd​(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+, and its optimal order quantity is

Qd∗=2λK(h+p)hp.Q^*_d = \sqrt{\frac{2\lambda K(h+p)}{hp}} .Qd∗​=hp2λK(h+p)​​.

The subscript ddd marks every object of the EOQ model (rdr_drd​, HdH_dHd​, AdA_dAd​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5

R=C(Qd∗)−C∗C∗  ≤  18−12(12−Qd∗Q∗)2  ≤  18.R = \frac{C(Q^*_d) - C^*}{C^*} \;\le\; \frac18 - \frac12\left(\frac12 - \frac{Q^*_d}{Q^*}\right)^2 \;\le\; \frac18 .R=C∗C(Qd∗​)−C∗​≤81​−21​(21​−Q∗Qd∗​​)2≤81​.

C(Qd∗)C(Q^*_d)C(Qd∗​) is the stochastic cost at the EOQ quantity with the reorder point re-optimised for it. The bound holds for every leadtime-demand distribution and every value of the parameters.

Milestones

In the order the goal's proof uses them:

  • Lemma 1 (joint convexity of ccc), Lemma 2 (r=r(Q)  ⟺  G(r)=G(r+Q)r = r(Q) \iff G(r) = G(r+Q)r=r(Q)⟺G(r)=G(r+Q)), Lemma 3 (properties of r(Q)r(Q)r(Q)), Corollary 1 (G(r(Q))≤max⁡(G(r),G(r+Q))G(r(Q)) \le \max(G(r), G(r+Q))G(r(Q))≤max(G(r),G(r+Q)));
  • Eq. (7) (C(Q)=(λK+∫0QH)/QC(Q) = (\lambda K + \int_0^Q H)/QC(Q)=(λK+∫0Q​H)/Q), Lemma 4 (HHH increasing, convex, asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)), Lemma 5 (CCC convex), Eq. (8) (H(Q∗)=C(Q∗)H(Q^*) = C(Q^*)H(Q∗)=C(Q∗)), Theorem 1 ((Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) optimal iff c(Q,r)=G(r)=G(r+Q)c(Q,r) = G(r) = G(r+Q)c(Q,r)=G(r)=G(r+Q)), Lemma 6 (AAA increasing convex, Q=Q∗  ⟺  A(Q)=λKQ = Q^* \iff A(Q) = \lambda KQ=Q∗⟺A(Q)=λK, comparative statics in KKK);
  • Eqs. (18), (20) (the EOQ model: Hd(Q)=hpQ/(h+p)H_d(Q) = hpQ/(h+p)Hd​(Q)=hpQ/(h+p) and the formula for Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​), Eq. (22) (Gd≤GG_d \le GGd​≤G), Lemma 7 (H0≤Hd≤HH_0 \le H_d \le HH0​≤Hd​≤H, A≤AdA \le A_dA≤Ad​), and the first inequality of Theorem 2, Qd∗≤Q∗Q^*_d \le Q^*Qd∗​≤Q∗.

Significance

The theorem is a distribution-free worst-case guarantee for the most common heuristic in inventory practice. It says that the EOQ formula, which needs only the mean demand rate and three cost parameters, loses at most 12.5%12.5\%12.5% against the true optimum, and that the loss is smaller when Qd∗/Q∗Q^*_d/Q^*Qd∗​/Q∗ is close to 12\frac1221​ or to 111. Combined with the paper's Theorem 2 (the gap Q∗−Qd∗Q^* - Q^*_dQ∗−Qd∗​ is bounded as KKK grows), it implies that the relative loss vanishes as the fixed ordering cost grows. The milestones along the way (the optimality conditions of Theorem 1, the monotonicity of the optimal reorder point, the comparison of HHH with its EOQ counterpart) are the standard structural facts about continuous (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) systems and are reused throughout the inventory literature.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version of it, or of the (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) optimality conditions for the continuous cost (1), is known to exist. The platform has related but different formalizations: the discrete cost function with integer QQQ (InventoryControl_rqDiscrete), the (R,Q)(R, Q)(R,Q) cost under normal demand (InventoryControl_rq), and the EOQ without backorders (InventoryControl_eoq). A complete development here provides the continuous (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) machinery for an arbitrary leadtime-demand distribution.

Difficulty

The paper's proofs differentiate r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) and H(Q)H(Q)H(Q) twice (Eqs. (4), (5)), which presupposes a leadtime demand with a smooth density. The formalization does not assume one, so that discrete demand, such as the Poisson demand of the paper's own numerical study, is covered. Every step that the paper takes through derivatives, in particular the convexity of HHH and the slope bound H′≤hp/(h+p)H' \le hp/(h+p)H′≤hp/(h+p), has to be established by other means: through one-sided derivatives or chord arguments for the convex function GGG, whose kinks are where the derivative-based argument breaks. The definition of r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) as a minimiser also means its existence and uniqueness must be proved before any property of HHH, CCC or AAA can be used.

Formalization scope

  • The model is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb{R}R (the law of DDD), concentrated on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), integrable, with mean λL\lambda LλL; GGG is the integral of hmax⁡(y−x,0)+pmax⁡(x−y,0)h\max(y-x,0) + p\max(x-y,0)hmax(y−x,0)+pmax(x−y,0) against μ\muμ. The standing assumptions are bundled in IsQRModel: λ,L,h,p>0\lambda, L, h, p > 0λ,L,h,p>0, the conditions on μ\muμ, and the unique minimiser of GGG (paper, p. 90). K>0K > 0K>0 is a separate hypothesis. No density is assumed.
  • ccc, r(Q)r(Q)r(Q), y0y^0y0, HHH, H0H_0H0​, CCC, AAA and optimality of an order quantity are defined for an arbitrary cost rate GGG and applied both to the newsvendor cost and to GdG_dGd​; the EOQ objects rdr_drd​, HdH_dHd​, AdA_dAd​ are these definitions at GdG_dGd​, and Eqs. (18), (20) are theorems.
  • r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) is a chosen minimiser of c(Q,⋅)c(Q,\cdot)c(Q,⋅) (never defined by G(r)=G(r+Q)G(r) = G(r+Q)G(r)=G(r+Q), which is Lemma 2). H(0):=G(y0)H(0) := G(y^0)H(0):=G(y0); right-continuity of HHH at 000 is part of the Lemma 4 milestone. Order quantities range over (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) for ccc and CCC and over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) for HHH, H0H_0H0​, AAA.
  • Q∗Q^*Q∗ in the goal is any Q>0Q > 0Q>0 with C(Q)≤C(Q′)C(Q) \le C(Q')C(Q)≤C(Q′) for all Q′>0Q' > 0Q′>0; Lemma 6 asserts that exactly one exists, so the goal is not vacuous. Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ is the explicit square-root formula.
  • Readings of informal words: "increasing" in Lemmas 4 and 6 means strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); "Q∗Q^*Q∗ increasing, r∗r^*r∗ decreasing in KKK" means strictly; "asymptotic slope hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)" means that every chord of HHH on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) has slope at most hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p)hp/(h+p) and H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q \to hp/(h+p)H(Q)/Q→hp/(h+p); Lemma 3 part 3 is stated as strict monotonicity of r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) and r(Q)+Qr(Q) + Qr(Q)+Q, and its derivative clause −1<r′(Q)<0-1 < r'(Q) < 0−1<r′(Q)<0 is omitted because rrr need not be differentiable without a density; "the optimal order quantity" means existence and uniqueness; Lemma 7 is stated for Q≥0Q \ge 0Q≥0.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: C(Qd∗)C(Q^*_d)C(Qd∗​) is the stochastic cost with the reorder point re-optimised in the stochastic model (not the EOQ reorder point rd∗r^*_drd∗​), and no positivity of C∗C^*C∗ is assumed (it follows from the model).
  • Out of scope: the discrete cost (2), the §4 numerical study, and the unnumbered remarks after Theorem 5.
  • Needed infrastructure: interval integrals of convex functions, partial minimisation of jointly convex functions, Jensen's inequality for μ\muμ, and one-sided derivatives of convex functions. The generic (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) machinery (optimality conditions for arbitrary convex GGG) is reusable for other continuous-review models. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs that avoid the paper's differentiability assumptions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu-Sheng Zheng, On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 38(1):87–103, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.1.87
  • Awi Federgruen and Yu-Sheng Zheng, An Efficient Algorithm for Computing an Optimal (r, Q) Policy in Continuous Review Stochastic Inventory Systems, Operations Research 40(4):808–813, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.4.808
  • Paul H. Zipkin, Inventory Service-Level Measures: Convexity and Approximation, Management Science 32(8):975–981, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.8.975
  • George Hadley and Thomson M. Whitin, Analysis of Inventory Systems, Prentice-Hall, 1963.
  • Daniel P. Heyman and Matthew J. Sobel, Stochastic Models in Operations Research, Vol. II, McGraw-Hill, 1984.
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: naimengye

Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices III: Superprocesses, Condition D and the Index Theorem for a SFASTextbook

Motivation

The index theorem says that among several Markov reward processes, of which one may be advanced at each decision time, the right one to advance is the one of greatest Gittins index. Chapter 4 of Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), asks how far this extends when the constituents are not reward processes but decision processes, each with its own controls: a research project that can be run in several ways, a job that can be processed at different speeds, a sampling process that may be stopped and exploited. A family of such superprocesses requires two choices at every decision time, which superprocess to continue and with which control, and an index policy in the sense of Chapter 2 need not be optimal (Example 4.1). Whittle (1980) identified the condition under which it is: Condition D, that when a superprocess is played against a standard bandit process paying a constant rent, the control one should apply to it does not depend on the rent. Under that condition the index theorem survives (Theorem 4.3), the index is characterized (Note 4.2), stoppable bandit processes with improving stopping options satisfy the condition (Lemma 4.4), and the chapter adds two results about indices themselves: any index that works for all bandit processes is a strictly increasing function of the Gittins index (Theorem 4.8), and a policy that is within ε\varepsilonε of the index policy loses at most εγ−1(1−e−γ)−1\varepsilon\gamma^{-1}(1-e^{-\gamma})^{-1}εγ−1(1−e−γ)−1 (Theorem 4.18).

Setting

A decision process DDD on a countable state space SSS has in each state xxx a nonempty finite set Γ(x)\Gamma(x)Γ(x) of controls; applying uuu yields the reward r(x,u)r(x, u)r(x,u) and moves the state by P(⋅∣x,u)P(\cdot \mid x, u)P(⋅∣x,u). Adding the freeze control, which leaves the state unchanged and yields nothing, makes DDD a superprocess SSS. Operating DDD under a feasible deterministic stationary Markov policy ggg (that is, g(x)∈Γ(x)g(x) \in \Gamma(x)g(x)∈Γ(x)) gives an ordinary bandit process DgD_gDg​, and the superprocess index is

ν(S,x,u)=sup⁡g:g(x)=uν(Dg,x),ν(S,x)=max⁡u∈Γ(x)ν(S,x,u),(4.1)\nu(S, x, u) = \sup_{g : g(x) = u} \nu(D_g, x), \qquad \nu(S, x) = \max_{u \in \Gamma(x)} \nu(S, x, u), \tag{4.1}ν(S,x,u)=g:g(x)=usup​ν(Dg​,x),ν(S,x)=u∈Γ(x)max​ν(S,x,u),(4.1)

with ν(Dg,x)\nu(D_g, x)ν(Dg​,x) the Gittins index of the Bandit Algorithms model. A simple family of alternative superprocesses (SFAS) is nnn superprocesses on a common (S,U)(S, U)(S,U); at each decision time 0,1,2,…0, 1, 2, \dots0,1,2,… exactly one is continued, with a control from its control set, the others being frozen, and rewards are discounted by ata^tat. A policy is a Markov kernel per decision time from the history to the pair (superprocess, control); it is optimal if it is feasible and attains the supremum of the discounted payoff over feasible policies from every initial state-vector, and it is an index policy if it always continues a superprocess and control of maximal ν(Si,xi,u)\nu(S_i, x_i, u)ν(Si​,xi​,u).

Condition D. Let Λ\LambdaΛ be a standard bandit process with parameter λ\lambdaλ (one state, reward λ\lambdaλ). SSS satisfies Condition D if there is a function ggg such that, for every xxx and λ\lambdaλ for which it is optimal in the family {S,Λ}\{S, \Lambda\}{S,Λ} to select SSS in state xxx, it is optimal to apply the control g(x)g(x)g(x). A stoppable bandit process is a bandit process with a stop control that makes it behave as a standard bandit process with parameter μ(x)\mu(x)μ(x); its stopping option is improving if μ(x(t))\mu(x(t))μ(x(t)) is almost surely nondecreasing in process time.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.3

For a decision process with bounded rewards and a Condition-D control ggg, every index policy with respect to ν(D,⋅,⋅)\nu(D, \cdot, \cdot)ν(D,⋅,⋅) that applies g(xi)g(x_i)g(xi​) to the superprocess iii it continues is optimal for the family of nnn superprocesses:

index policy π  ⟹  π feasible and Rπ(x)=sup⁡π′ feasibleRπ′(x)  for every x∈Sn.\text{index policy } \pi \implies \pi \text{ feasible and } R_\pi(x) = \sup_{\pi' \text{ feasible}} R_{\pi'}(x)\ \text{ for every } x \in S^n.index policy π⟹π feasible and Rπ​(x)=π′ feasiblesup​Rπ′​(x)  for every x∈Sn.

Milestones

Note 4.2 (under Condition D, SSS is selected in {S,Λ(λ)}\{S, \Lambda(\lambda)\}{S,Λ(λ)} iff ν(S,x)≥λ\nu(S, x) \ge \lambdaν(S,x)≥λ, and at λ=ν(S,x)\lambda = \nu(S, x)λ=ν(S,x) a control uuu is optimal iff ν(S,x,u)=ν(S,x)\nu(S, x, u) = \nu(S, x)ν(S,x,u)=ν(S,x); the printed equivalence fails for λ<ν(S,x)\lambda < \nu(S, x)λ<ν(S,x)); Lemma 4.4 (Condition D for stoppable bandit processes with improving stopping options); Theorem 4.8 (an index for the bandit processes with discount factor aaa is strictly increasing in ν\nuν); Theorem 4.18 (the ε\varepsilonε-index bound, ε/(1−a)2\varepsilon/(1-a)^2ε/(1−a)2 for the discrete-time index).

Significance

Theorem 4.3 is the widest form in which the index theorem holds without further structure, and Condition D is exactly the right hypothesis: it says the superprocess has a canonical control, and once it does the family reduces to a family of bandit processes and the prevailing-charge argument goes through. Lemma 4.4 gives the model where the condition is known to hold, a research project that may be exploited at any time; the buyer's problem of Bergman and Bather is the case where it fails. Theorem 4.8 explains why every index theorem in the book is about the Gittins index: any function that orders bandit processes optimally must order them as ν\nuν does. Theorem 4.18 is the quantitative version of the index theorem that heuristics and computations rely on.

Nothing here is machine-checked. The mission builds the first controlled multi-armed model on the platform, a run law for families of decision processes with an explicit feasibility constraint, and states Whittle's condition as a property of the two-member family, which is how the literature uses it. Theorems 4.8 and 4.18 are statements about the existing Bandit Algorithms model and are usable by any later work on that model.

Difficulty

The obvious attack on Theorem 4.3, "replace each superprocess by the bandit process DgD_{g}Dg​ for its Condition-D policy ggg and apply the index theorem", is the second half of the book's proof; the first half is to show that an optimal policy never gains by applying a control other than g(xi)g(x_i)g(xi​) to a superprocess it continues, and that uses the prevailing-stake accounting of §4.3 with the other superprocesses treated as one bandit process, plus the observation that the class of policies deviating at most kkk times is ε\varepsilonε-exhaustive. Both halves require the whole run law of the family to be related to the run laws of its constituents, which is where a formalization spends its effort. Note 4.2 is short on the page but needs the optimal-stopping characterization of Chapter 2 for the bandit process DgD_gDg​ under charge λ\lambdaλ. Theorem 4.8 is elementary given the value of {B,Λ}\{B, \Lambda\}{B,Λ} under a freezing rule, Rf(B)+λγ−1−λWf(B)R_f(B) + \lambda\gamma^{-1} - \lambda W_f(B)Rf​(B)+λγ−1−λWf​(B), but that identity is itself a computation on the run law. Theorem 4.18 has no proof in the book (Glazebrook 1982c); the natural route is the prevailing-charge upper bound with the charges perturbed by ε\varepsilonε.

Formalization scope

Decision processes carry their control sets as finsets with a nonemptiness proof and their kernels as Markov kernels; the state space is countable with measurable singletons (so stationary kernels and control-dependent maps are measurable without side conditions) and the control type is finite with measurable singletons. The family's run law is built decision time by decision time as the Bandit Algorithms model builds markovBanditMeasure, with the policy's kernel producing the pair (superprocess, control). Feasibility is an almost-sure condition on the policy kernel, and optimality is the book's: feasible, and the supremum from every initial state-vector. The superprocess index is a real supremum over feasible stationary policies with g(x)=ug(x) = ug(x)=u, bounded by the reward bound and nonempty for u∈Γ(x)u \in \Gamma(x)u∈Γ(x); for an unavailable uuu it is a default value that no index policy consults. Condition D is stated on the family {S,Λ}\{S, \Lambda\}{S,Λ} on S⊕UnitS \oplus \mathrm{Unit}S⊕Unit, where the standard state has every control available, all equivalent. A stoppable bandit process is the decision process with control type Bool. Theorem 4.8 quantifies over index functions defined on every measurable state space and takes as hypothesis only what its proof uses, optimality of μ\muμ-index policies for the families {B,Λ}\{B, \Lambda\}{B,Λ}. Theorem 4.18 is on the kkk-armed Bandit Algorithms model with ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0 and the bound ε/(1−a)2\varepsilon/(1-a)^2ε/(1−a)2: the book's εγ−1(1−e−γ)−1\varepsilon\gamma^{-1}(1 - e^{-\gamma})^{-1}εγ−1(1−e−γ)−1 is in continuous-time index units, γ/(1−a)\gamma/(1-a)γ/(1−a) times the discrete-time index used here, and read with the discrete index it is false for a<1/ea < 1/ea<1/e. Theorem 4.3's index policy applies the Condition-D control ggg to the superprocess it continues, as the book's proof does; an index policy that breaks ties among controls otherwise need not be optimal.

Trivializing readings are excluded: index policies must be feasible, optimality is required from every initial state, and Condition D is a statement about optimal policies of a genuine two-member family, not about a chosen policy. Welcome contributions: the relation between the family's run law and the constituents' chain laws, the freezing-rule value identity behind Theorem 4.8, and the prevailing-stake accounting of §4.3.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 4. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • P. Whittle, Multi-armed bandits and the Gittins index, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 42(2), 1980. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01111.x
  • K. D. Glazebrook, Stoppable families of alternative bandit processes, Journal of Applied Probability 16(4), 1979. doi:10.2307/3213152
  • K. D. Glazebrook, On the evaluation of suboptimal strategies for families of alternative bandit processes, Journal of Applied Probability 19(3), 1982. doi:10.2307/3213524
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 35. doi:10.1017/9781108571401
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: naimengye

Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices II: Jobs, Parallel Machines, Search and Bandit-Dependent DiscountingTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 3 of Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), asks which of the assumptions behind the index theorem can be dropped and which cannot, using the simplest bandit processes there are: jobs, which pay a single reward when they complete. Along the way it settles three questions that matter on their own. When identical machines run in parallel, which schedule of deterministic jobs minimizes the total completion time (Baker's theorem), and what does the equal-ratio case look like (Theorem 3.3)? When an object is hidden in one of several boxes and each search costs money and may fail, in what order should the boxes be searched (Blackwell's search-index theorem, Theorem 3.6)? And when two bandit processes discount at different rates, is there still an index policy (Nash's Theorem 3.4)? The search theorem is the chapter's example of what the index machinery yields once undiscounted criteria are admitted through the limit γ↓0\gamma \downarrow 0γ↓0; the scheduling results are the source of the counterexamples that show a second machine breaks the index structure.

Setting

Jobs on parallel machines. There are nnn jobs with service times si>0s_i > 0si​>0 and weights cic_ici​, and mmm identical machines. A schedule assigns each job a machine and a position in that machine's processing order; each machine processes its jobs consecutively. The completion time CiC_iCi​ of a job is the total service time of the jobs on its machine up to and including it; the flow time is ∑iCi\sum_i C_i∑i​Ci​ and the weighted flow time ∑iciCi\sum_i c_i C_i∑i​ci​Ci​. The load of a machine is the total service time assigned to it, and δj\delta_jδj​ is its excess over the average S/mS/mS/m. The SPT list schedule sorts the jobs by increasing service time and deals them out cyclically to the machines. The level of a job is its position counted from the end of its machine's schedule.

The search problem (Problem 3). A stationary object is hidden in one of nnn boxes, in box iii with probability pip_ipi​. A search of box iii costs cic_ici​ and finds the object with probability qiq_iqi​ if it is there. A search policy is a sequence of boxes; after NiN_iNi​ unsuccessful searches of box iii the posterior probability that the object is there is proportional to pi(1−qi)Nip_i(1-q_i)^{N_i}pi​(1−qi​)Ni​, and the search index of the box is pi′qi/cip'_i q_i/c_ipi′​qi​/ci​, the current probability of finding the object per unit cost. The expected cost of a policy is ∑kcσkPr⁡[not found by the first k searches]\sum_k c_{\sigma_k}\Pr[\text{not found by the first } k \text{ searches}]∑k​cσk​​Pr[not found by the first k searches].

Two discount factors. Bandit process AAA (state space SAS_ASA​, kernel PAP_APA​, reward rAr_ArA​) discounts at rate aaa and BBB at rate bbb; a reward obtained at time ttt is worth ata^tat or btb^tbt times its face value according to which process produced it. The cross indices are νAB(x)=sup⁡τ>0E∑t<τatrA(x(t))/E[1−bτ]\nu_{AB}(x) = \sup_{\tau>0} \mathbb{E}\sum_{t<\tau} a^t r_A(x(t)) \big/ \mathbb{E}[1 - b^\tau]νAB​(x)=supτ>0​E∑t<τ​atrA​(x(t))/E[1−bτ] and νBA(y)\nu_{BA}(y)νBA​(y) with the roles exchanged: each is computed from one process's stopping times but with the other's discount factor in the denominator. The book prints the denominator as E∫0τbt dt\mathbb{E}\int_0^\tau b^t\,dtE∫0τ​btdt and compares νAB(x)\nu_{AB}(x)νAB​(x) with νBA(y)\nu_{BA}(y)νBA​(y) at every time; both are corrected here (see the Theorem 3.4 item), since the printed rule is not optimal. The family is the two-armed Markov bandit of the Bandit Algorithms model on the disjoint union SA⊕SBS_A \oplus S_BSA​⊕SB​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.6

For prior probabilities pi≥0p_i \ge 0pi​≥0 summing to one, detection probabilities 0<qi≤10 < q_i \le 10<qi​≤1 and costs ci>0c_i > 0ci​>0, a search policy is optimal if and only if at every step it searches a box of maximal current index pi′qi/cip'_i q_i / c_ipi′​qi​/ci​:

optimal(σ)  ⟺  ∀k, ∀i: pi(1−qi)Ni(k)qici≤pσk(1−qσk)Nσk(k)qσkcσk.\text{optimal}(\sigma) \iff \forall k,\ \forall i:\ \frac{p_i (1-q_i)^{N_i(k)} q_i}{c_i} \le \frac{p_{\sigma_k}(1-q_{\sigma_k})^{N_{\sigma_k}(k)} q_{\sigma_k}}{c_{\sigma_k}}.optimal(σ)⟺∀k, ∀i: ci​pi​(1−qi​)Ni​(k)qi​​≤cσk​​pσk​​(1−qσk​​)Nσk​​(k)qσk​​​.

Milestones

Theorem 3.3, as the identity ∑iciCi=κ2(∑isi2+S2/m+∑jδj2)\sum_i c_i C_i = \frac{\kappa}{2}\big(\sum_i s_i^2 + S^2/m + \sum_j \delta_j^2\big)∑i​ci​Ci​=2κ​(∑i​si2​+S2/m+∑j​δj2​) when ci=κsic_i = \kappa s_ici​=κsi​; Theorem 3.4 in discrete time and corrected, that a policy selecting, at time ttt, AAA when atνAB(x)>btνBA(y)a^t \nu_{AB}(x) > b^t \nu_{BA}(y)atνAB​(x)>btνBA​(y) and BBB when atνAB(x)<btνBA(y)a^t \nu_{AB}(x) < b^t \nu_{BA}(y)atνAB​(x)<btνBA​(y) attains the supremum of the bandit-dependently discounted payoff; Theorem 3.7, that SPT minimizes the flow time on mmm machines and that the optimal schedules are exactly those placing the rrr-th block of mmm longest jobs at level rrr from the end, for some order of the equal jobs.

Significance

Theorem 3.6 is the classical solution of the discrete search problem (Blackwell, reported by Matula 1964; Kadane 1969): the greedy rule in probability-per-cost is optimal, and every optimal policy is of that form. The book derives it from the index theorem through an auxiliary family of bandit processes (Problem 3A) and the undiscounted limit (Corollary 3.5), which is why it sits in this chapter; as a statement it is elementary and self-contained, and it is the template for the tax problems and Klimov's model of Chapter 4. Theorem 3.7 and Theorem 3.3 are the positive results about parallel machines that survive the loss of the index structure; Theorem 3.4 shows the index theorem's shape persisting under bandit-dependent discounting, with two twists: each index depends on the other process's discount factor, which is exactly why it does not extend to three processes, and the comparison at time ttt weighs the indices by ata^tat and btb^tbt, so the rule is not stationary in the states. The printed statement misses the second twist and misnormalizes the first; two one-state bandits paying 0.180.180.18 (a=0.9a = 0.9a=0.9) and 111 (b=0.5b = 0.5b=0.5) are best played B,B,BB, B, BB,B,B and then AAA forever, which no stationary rule does.

None of these is machine-checked. Formalizing them gives the platform an optimality theorem for an infinite-horizon search process with an explicit index characterization in both directions, the standard parallel-machine flow-time results with a precise uniqueness clause, and a first statement on the Bandit Algorithms two-armed model with unequal discounting.

Difficulty

For Theorem 3.6 the obvious route, comparing two adjacent searches, gives only that interchanging a pair in the wrong index order lowers the cost; turning that into optimality over all infinite sequences needs that an optimal policy exists (costs are bounded below by zero and the index policy has finite cost), that a policy neglecting a box of positive prior has infinite cost, and that any first deviation from the index rule can be improved by moving a later search forward, which requires tracking how the not-found probability changes along the whole tail. The converse direction is the same interchange run backwards, and the tie case must be handled so that the equivalence is exact. Theorem 3.7's first part follows from writing the flow time as ∑iℓisi\sum_i \ell_i s_i∑i​ℓi​si​ with ℓi\ell_iℓi​ the level and applying a rearrangement inequality over the multiset of levels, but the multiset of levels itself depends on how many jobs each machine gets, so balancing the machine counts is part of the argument; the uniqueness clause needs both that the multiset is forced and that the pairing of levels with service times is forced by strict monotonicity. Theorem 3.4 is the hardest: the book's proof changes the time scale of each process so that the two share a discount factor, which produces a semi-Markov family, and applies the index theorem there; in discrete time on the Markov model one needs either a discrete analogue of that argument or a direct prevailing-charge proof with two charge scales.

Formalization scope

Schedules are assignments of machines and positions with distinct positions on a machine, without idling; the flow-time quantities are finite sums over Fin n. The SPT schedule is defined by the ascending rank of a job (ties broken by index) and carries its own injectivity proof. The search cost is a series in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] of nonnegative terms, so no summability hypothesis is needed and "infinite cost" is literal; the index is stated unnormalized, pi(1−qi)Niqi/cip_i(1-q_i)^{N_i} q_i/c_ipi​(1−qi​)Ni​qi​/ci​, which orders the boxes exactly as the posterior index does. The two-discount family uses the platform's MarkovBanditPolicy 2 (S_A ⊕ S_B) and markovBanditMeasure with the kernel that moves an AAA-state by PAP_APA​ and a BBB-state by PBP_BPB​; the payoff is the round-by-round series ∑t(atE[r1{At=A}]+btE[r1{At=B}])\sum_t (a^t \mathbb{E}[r\mathbf 1\{A_t = A\}] + b^t \mathbb{E}[r\mathbf 1\{A_t = B\}])∑t​(atE[r1{At​=A}]+btE[r1{At​=B}]), absolutely summable for bounded rewards, and the policy condition is imposed at histories whose current states have the right types (all reachable histories do). Hypotheses: m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, service times positive; pi≥0p_i \ge 0pi​≥0, ∑pi=1\sum p_i = 1∑pi​=1, 0<qi≤10 < q_i \le 10<qi​≤1, ci>0c_i > 0ci​>0; countable state spaces, bounded rewards, a,b∈(0,1)a, b \in (0,1)a,b∈(0,1).

Trivializing readings are excluded: the search "iff" is over all sequences, not a finite horizon; the uniqueness clause is stated in full, with ties resolved by any ranking of the equal jobs; the cross indices are suprema over positive stopping times (denominators at least one), and the two-discount rule weighs the indices by ata^tat, btb^tbt. Welcome contributions: the rearrangement and level-count lemmas for schedules, the interchange lemma for the search cost, and a discrete prevailing-charge argument for Theorem 3.4.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 3. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • D. W. Matula, A periodic optimal search, American Mathematical Monthly 71(1), 1964. doi:10.2307/2311300
  • J. B. Kadane, Quiz show problems, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 27(3), 1969. doi:10.1016/0022-247X(69)90140-2
  • K. R. Baker, Introduction to Sequencing and Scheduling, Wiley, 1974.
  • P. Nash, A generalized bandit problem, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 42(2), 1980. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01119.x
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Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization I: Kantorovich Duality and Strong Duality for the Worst-Case RiskTextbook

Motivation

Every data-driven decision problem faces the same trap. A decision-maker estimates a risk functional R(P,ℓ)=EP[ℓ(ξ)]R(P,\ell) = \mathbb{E}_P[\ell(\xi)]R(P,ℓ)=EP​[ℓ(ξ)] from a nominal distribution P^N\hat P_NP^N​ built from NNN training samples, then optimizes a loss function ℓ\ellℓ against P^N\hat P_NP^N​ instead of the unknown true distribution PPP. Because the optimizer adapts to the noise in P^N\hat P_NP^N​, the in-sample risk of the optimizer systematically understates its true, out-of-sample risk — a phenomenon Smith and Winkler named the optimizer's curse (Smith & Winkler, Management Science, 2006). The remedy explored here is to hedge against a whole neighborhood of plausible distributions around P^N\hat P_NP^N​, rather than trusting the point estimate. Kuhn, Mohajerin Esfahani, Nguyen and Shafieezadeh-Abadeh's INFORMS TutORials chapter (2019) develops this neighborhood using the Wasserstein distance, and the present mission formalizes its foundational duality theory: the machinery every later result in the chapter (finite-sample guarantees, elliptical tractability, regularization) builds on.

Setting

Fix a norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ on a finite-dimensional real vector space EEE (representing Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm). For p∈[1,∞)p \in [1,\infty)p∈[1,∞), the type-ppp Wasserstein distance between two Borel probability measures Q,Q′Q, Q'Q,Q′ on EEE is

Wp(Q,Q′)=(inf⁡π∈Π(Q,Q′)∫E×E∥ξ−ξ′∥p π(dξ,dξ′))1/p,W_p(Q,Q') = \left(\inf_{\pi \in \Pi(Q,Q')} \int_{E\times E} \|\xi-\xi'\|^p\, \pi(d\xi,d\xi')\right)^{1/p},Wp​(Q,Q′)=(π∈Π(Q,Q′)inf​∫E×E​∥ξ−ξ′∥pπ(dξ,dξ′))1/p,

where Π(Q,Q′)\Pi(Q,Q')Π(Q,Q′) is the set of couplings of QQQ and Q′Q'Q′ — joint probability measures on E×EE \times EE×E whose marginals are QQQ and Q′Q'Q′. The optimal π\piπ can be read as a transportation plan moving one pile of dirt (QQQ) into another (Q′Q'Q′) at minimum cost, which is why WpW_pWp​ is also called the earth mover's distance; the underlying linear program was formalized by Kantorovich (1942) after Monge's 1781 original.

Given NNN training samples ξ^1,…,ξ^N\hat\xi_1,\dots,\hat\xi_Nξ^​1​,…,ξ^​N​, the empirical distribution is P^N=1N∑i=1Nδξ^i\hat P_N = \frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N \delta_{\hat\xi_i}P^N​=N1​∑i=1N​δξ^​i​​. Centered at P^N\hat P_NP^N​, the Wasserstein ambiguity set of radius ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0 is

Bε,p(P^N)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp(Q,P^N)≤ε},B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N) = \{Q \in \mathcal{P}(\Xi) : W_p(Q,\hat P_N) \le \varepsilon\},Bε,p​(P^N​)={Q∈P(Ξ):Wp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε},

where Ξ⊆E\Xi \subseteq EΞ⊆E is a closed set known to contain the support of the true distribution. The worst-case risk of a loss function ℓ\ellℓ is

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=sup⁡Q∈Bε,p(P^N)EQ[ℓ(ξ)],R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \sup_{Q \in B_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N)} \mathbb{E}_Q[\ell(\xi)],Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=Q∈Bε,p​(P^N​)sup​EQ​[ℓ(ξ)],

and minimizing it over a class of admissible loss functions L\mathcal{L}L is a distributionally robust optimization problem. ε\varepsilonε measures the estimation error one insures against; a larger ambiguity set gives a more conservative (and more expensive) guarantee.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 7, strong duality

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)=inf⁡γ≥0 EP^N[ℓγ(ξ)]+γεp,ℓγ(ξ)=sup⁡z∈Ξℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p.R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) = \inf_{\gamma \ge 0}\ \mathbb{E}_{\hat P_N}[\ell_\gamma(\xi)] + \gamma\varepsilon^p,\qquad \ell_\gamma(\xi) = \sup_{z\in\Xi} \ell(z) - \gamma\|z-\xi\|^p.Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)=γ≥0inf​ EP^N​​[ℓγ​(ξ)]+γεp,ℓγ​(ξ)=z∈Ξsup​ℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p.

This is the Lagrangian dual of the worst-case risk evaluation problem, with γ\gammaγ the multiplier of the Wasserstein constraint Wp(Q,P^N)≤εW_p(Q,\hat P_N)\le\varepsilonWp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε: it converts a supremum over an infinite-dimensional space of measures into a one-dimensional minimization of the Moreau-Yosida regularization ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​. Every tractability result later in the chapter (finite convex reformulations, SDP relaxations) specializes this duality by choosing a loss class for which ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​ is computable.

Supporting dual representations of WpW_pWp​ — Theorems 1 and 2

Wpp(Q,Q′)=sup⁡{∫ψ dQ′−∫φ dQ:φ,ψ bounded continuous, ψ(ξ)−φ(ξ′)≤∥ξ−ξ′∥p}W_p^p(Q,Q') = \sup\left\{\int \psi\,dQ' - \int \varphi\,dQ : \varphi,\psi \text{ bounded continuous},\ \psi(\xi)-\varphi(\xi') \le \|\xi-\xi'\|^p\right\}Wpp​(Q,Q′)=sup{∫ψdQ′−∫φdQ:φ,ψ bounded continuous, ψ(ξ)−φ(ξ′)≤∥ξ−ξ′∥p} W1(Q,Q′)=sup⁡Lip(φ)≤1∫φ dQ−∫φ dQ′W_1(Q,Q') = \sup_{\mathrm{Lip}(\varphi)\le 1} \int \varphi\,dQ - \int \varphi\,dQ'W1​(Q,Q′)=Lip(φ)≤1sup​∫φdQ−∫φdQ′

These identify WpW_pWp​ as a linear program's strong dual (Theorem 1) and, for p=1p=1p=1, specialize it to the Kantorovich-Rubinstein form (Theorem 2), which is what lets the worst-case-risk analysis reason about Lipschitz loss functions directly.

Upper and lower bounds — Theorems 5 and 6

Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≤R(P^N,ℓ)+ε⋅Lip(ℓ)R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \le R(\hat P_N,\ell) + \varepsilon\cdot\mathrm{Lip}(\ell)Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≤R(P^N​,ℓ)+ε⋅Lip(ℓ) Rε,p(P^N,ℓ)≥sup⁡{1N∑iℓ(ξ^i+θi):ξ^i+θi∈Ξ, 1N∑i∥θi∥p≤εp}R_{\varepsilon,p}(\hat P_N,\ell) \ge \sup\left\{\tfrac1N\textstyle\sum_i \ell(\hat\xi_i+\theta_i) : \hat\xi_i+\theta_i\in\Xi,\ \tfrac1N\textstyle\sum_i\|\theta_i\|^p\le\varepsilon^p\right\}Rε,p​(P^N​,ℓ)≥sup{N1​∑i​ℓ(ξ^​i​+θi​):ξ^​i​+θi​∈Ξ, N1​∑i​∥θi​∥p≤εp}

These are the tractable, easily-computed bracket that Theorems 7 and 10 later show is tight in important special cases.

Exact case — Theorem 10

Ξ=Rm, ℓ convex, p=1  ⟹  Rε,1(P^N,ℓ)=R(P^N,ℓ)+ε Lip(ℓ)\Xi = \mathbb{R}^m,\ \ell \text{ convex},\ p=1 \implies R_{\varepsilon,1}(\hat P_N,\ell) = R(\hat P_N,\ell) + \varepsilon\,\mathrm{Lip}(\ell)Ξ=Rm, ℓ convex, p=1⟹Rε,1​(P^N​,ℓ)=R(P^N​,ℓ)+εLip(ℓ)

Theorem 5's inequality becomes exact under convexity — the cleanest closing corollary of the duality theory, obtained from Theorem 7 by evaluating the Moreau-Yosida regularization of a convex function explicitly.

Significance

Theorem 7 is the hinge on which the entire computational program of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization turns: every tractable reformulation in the source chapter (piecewise-concave losses via conic duality, quadratic losses via semidefinite programming, the shrinkage-estimator connection) is obtained by substituting a specific loss class into the right-hand side of Theorem 7 and showing the resulting Moreau-Yosida regularization is computable. Kuhn et al. themselves derive it as a corollary of Blanchet & Murthy (2019) and Gao & Kleywegt (2016) for the empirical case, generalized to Polish spaces by Blanchet & Murthy and Gao & Kleywegt independently — the paper cites [12] and [37] for the general statement. Formalizing it is what makes every later, more computational result in the chapter — the ones a solver is more likely to reach for next — rest on a mechanically verified foundation rather than a citation chain.

Status. The mathematical result is well established (multiple independent published proofs cited above); nothing here is open research. What this mission contributes is the first machine-checked formal statement of the duality theorem and its supporting dual representations (Theorems 1, 2, 5, 6, 10) on the Prove2Me platform — none of Wp's dual representation, the Wasserstein ambiguity set, or the worst-case risk functional exist there prior to this mission (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious proof strategy — write down the Lagrangian of the semi-infinite program (6), swap the order of the outer supremum over QQQ and the inner minimization over the multiplier γ\gammaγ, and invoke ordinary Lagrangian strong duality — fails because (6) is an infinite- dimensional linear program over measures, not a finite convex program: there is no compact feasible set or Slater point in a form that ordinary finite-dimensional duality applies to directly. The actual proof goes through the dual representation of the Wasserstein distance itself (Theorem 1, which is why it is a prerequisite milestone), reformulating the constraint Wp(Q,P^N)≤εW_p(Q,\hat P_N)\le\varepsilonWp​(Q,P^N​)≤ε via its own dual variables and swapping the resulting sup-inf using minimax theorems for semi-infinite programs, not ordinary Lagrangian duality for finite programs.

Formalization scope

EEE is a generic finite-dimensional real normed space (NormedAddCommGroup, NormedSpace ℝ, Borel-measurable), representing Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm with the paper's arbitrary fixed norm as a parameter rather than fixing the Euclidean norm. A coupling is formalized directly via MeasureTheory.Measure.map: π.map Prod.fst = Q ∧ π.map Prod.snd = Q'. Constrained infima/suprema (over couplings, over the ambiguity set, over Lipschitz test functions, over perturbation matrices) use Mathlib's guarded-binder idiom ⨅ x (_ : P x), f x, which correctly returns ⊤\top⊤ (resp. ⊥\bot⊥) outside the feasible set rather than a finite junk value.

Two deliberate, disclosed conventions keep the extremal-value definitions faithful without extended-real integration machinery, both recorded in MODERATION_NOTES.md:

  1. worstCaseRisk and the dual representations (Theorems 1, 2) are valued in EReal, not ℝ, so an unbounded supremum is recorded as +∞+\infty+∞ rather than collapsed to Mathlib's real-valued junk value 0 on an unbounded family.
  2. The goal theorem (7) and its Moreau-Yosida regularization restrict the loss function to bounded continuous ℓ\ellℓ (BoundedContinuousFunction E ℝ), narrower than the paper's general upper-semicontinuous, P^N\hat P_NP^N​-integrable loss class L\mathcal{L}L (Assumption 1). This keeps ℓγ(ξ)=sup⁡z∈Ξℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p\ell_\gamma(\xi) = \sup_{z\in\Xi}\ell(z)-\gamma\|z-\xi\|^pℓγ​(ξ)=supz∈Ξ​ℓ(z)−γ∥z−ξ∥p a finite real number for every nonempty Ξ\XiΞ, so the right-hand side's Bochner integral is well-posed; the milestones (Theorems 5, 6, 10) keep the more general real-valued (not necessarily bounded) loss class, since their statements do not require evaluating a pointwise supremum over Ξ\XiΞ.
  3. Ξ is required closed in Theorems 5, 6 and 7, matching the paper's own standing assumption (p. 6: "we let Ξ⊆Rm\Xi\subseteq\mathbb{R}^mΞ⊆Rm be a closed set that is known to contain the support of PPP") for the whole worst-case-risk framework, which is used silently in the paper wherever a theorem takes Ξ\XiΞ as an argument but was not carried into these theorems' own hypothesis lists in an earlier draft.
  4. The goal theorem (7) additionally requires P^N\hat P_NP^N​ itself supported on Ξ\XiΞ (P^N(Ξc)=0\hat P_N(\Xi^c)=0P^N​(Ξc)=0, the same "supported on Ξ\XiΞ" convention ambiguitySet uses for Q∈P(Ξ)Q\in\mathcal P(\Xi)Q∈P(Ξ)), which the paper's framework presupposes for the nominal distribution throughout §2. Combined with ℓ\ellℓ bounded, this makes ℓγ\ell_\gammaℓγ​ bounded on the full-measure set Ξ\XiΞ (above by sup⁡ℓ\sup\ellsupℓ unconditionally, below by ℓ(ξ)\ell(\xi)ℓ(ξ) itself via z=ξz=\xiz=ξ for ξ∈Ξ\xi\in\Xiξ∈Ξ), which is what makes the right-hand side's integral genuinely well-posed rather than liable to Mathlib's non-integrable junk value 000.

There is no trivializing formalization risk from a vacuous hypothesis: Ξ.Nonempty and 0 < N are both required exactly where the paper's own indexing and support assumptions require them, and every extremal value uses the extended-real convention above rather than a convention that would make an inequality vacuously true.

No definition in this mission exists on the platform prior to this series (GET /theorems?q=Wasserstein, q=Kantorovich, q=optimal transport, q=coupling return only unrelated discrete/finite-type constructions); all seven definitions and six theorems are drafted fresh. WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance, .ambiguitySet and .worstCaseRisk are the substrate every later mission in this five-part series (Gelbrich tractability, finite-sample guarantees, regularization, shrinkage estimation) either imports directly or redefines locally per the series' reuse rule.

Selected references

  • Kuhn, D., Mohajerin Esfahani, P., Nguyen, V. A., & Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, S. (2019). Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization: Theory and Applications in Machine Learning. INFORMS TutORials in Operations Research, 130–166. https://doi.org/10.1287/educ.2019.0198
  • Villani, C. (2009). Optimal Transport: Old and New. Springer. (Cited as [108] for Theorems 1 and 2.)
  • Smith, J. E., & Winkler, R. L. (2006). The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Science, 52(3), 311–322. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451
  • Gao, R., & Kleywegt, A. J. (2016). Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance. arXiv:1604.02199.
  • Blanchet, J., & Murthy, K. (2019). Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport. Mathematics of Operations Research, 44(2), 565–600. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
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High-Dimensional Statistics II: Talagrand's Convex Concentration InequalityTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 2's tail bounds mostly rest on moment-generating-function control, obtained either directly (sub-Gaussianity) or through explicit combinatorial arguments (Hoeffding, bounded differences). The entropic method offers a different, more structural route: bound a specific information-theoretic quantity — the φ\varphiφ-entropy of eλXe^{\lambda X}eλX — and convert that bound mechanically into a tail bound via a short ODE argument (the Herbst argument). This method's real payoff appears once it is combined with the tensorization property of entropy across independent coordinates, which is what lets it handle Lipschitz functions of many independent variables — including cases, such as separately convex functions, that elude the purely martingale-based techniques of Chapter 2. This mission formalizes the entropic method's two foundational entropy-to-tail conversions and its central Lipschitz-concentration application, following Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint (Cambridge University Press, 2019), Chapter 3.

Setting

For φ(u):=ulog⁡u\varphi(u):=u\log uφ(u):=ulogu (u>0u>0u>0), φ(0):=0\varphi(0):=0φ(0):=0, the φ\varphiφ-entropy of a nonnegative random variable ZZZ is H(Z):=E[Zlog⁡Z]−E[Z]log⁡E[Z]H(Z):=\mathbb E[Z\log Z]-\mathbb E[Z]\log\mathbb E[Z]H(Z):=E[ZlogZ]−E[Z]logE[Z] (Eqs. (3.1)-(3.2)). Writing φX(λ):=E[eλX]\varphi_X(\lambda):=\mathbb E[e^{\lambda X}]φX​(λ):=E[eλX] for the moment generating function of XXX, the entropy of eλXe^{\lambda X}eλX has the explicit form H(eλX)=λφX′(λ)−φX(λ)log⁡φX(λ)H(e^{\lambda X}) = \lambda\varphi_X'(\lambda) -\varphi_X(\lambda)\log\varphi_X(\lambda)H(eλX)=λφX′​(λ)−φX​(λ)logφX​(λ) (Eq. (3.3)).

A function f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R is separately convex if, for each coordinate kkk, the univariate function obtained by fixing every coordinate but the kkk-th is convex — strictly weaker than joint convexity of fff itself. fff is LLL-Lipschitz with respect to the Euclidean norm if ∣f(x)−f(x′)∣≤L∥x−x′∥2|f(x)-f(x')|\le L\|x-x'\|_2∣f(x)−f(x′)∣≤L∥x−x′∥2​ for all x,x′x,x'x,x′.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 3.4 (separately convex Lipschitz concentration)

Let {Xi}i=1n\{X_i\}_{i=1}^n{Xi​}i=1n​ be independent, each supported on [a,b][a,b][a,b], and fff separately convex and LLL-Lipschitz. Then for all δ>0\delta>0δ>0,

P[f(X)≥E[f(X)]+δ]  ≤  exp⁡(−δ24L2(b−a)2).\mathbb P[f(X)\ge\mathbb E[f(X)]+\delta] \;\le\; \exp\Big(-\frac{\delta^2}{4L^2(b-a)^2}\Big).P[f(X)≥E[f(X)]+δ]≤exp(−4L2(b−a)2δ2​).

Milestone — Proposition 3.2 (the Herbst argument)

If H(eλX)≤12σ2λ2φX(λ)H(e^{\lambda X})\le\tfrac12\sigma^2\lambda^2\varphi_X(\lambda)H(eλX)≤21​σ2λ2φX​(λ) for all λ∈I\lambda\in Iλ∈I (I=[0,∞)I=[0,\infty)I=[0,∞) or R\mathbb RR), then log⁡E[eλ(X−E[X])]≤12λ2σ2\log\mathbb E[e^{\lambda(X-\mathbb E[X])}]\le \tfrac12\lambda^2\sigma^2logE[eλ(X−E[X])]≤21​λ2σ2 for all λ∈I\lambda\in Iλ∈I — the basic entropy-to-sub-Gaussian-tail conversion.

Milestone — Proposition 3.3 (the Bernstein entropy bound)

The sub-exponential analogue: if H(eλX)≤λ2{bφX′(λ)+φX(λ)(σ2−bE[X])}H(e^{\lambda X})\le\lambda^2\{b\varphi_X'(\lambda)+ \varphi_X(\lambda)(\sigma^2-b\mathbb E[X])\}H(eλX)≤λ2{bφX′​(λ)+φX​(λ)(σ2−bE[X])} for λ∈[0,1/b)\lambda\in[0,1/b)λ∈[0,1/b), then log⁡E[eλ(X−E[X])]≤σ2λ2(1−bλ)−1\log\mathbb E[e^{\lambda(X-\mathbb E[X])}]\le\sigma^2\lambda^2(1-b\lambda)^{-1}logE[eλ(X−E[X])]≤σ2λ2(1−bλ)−1 on the same range.

Significance

Propositions 3.2 and 3.3 are the two basic entropy-to-tail conversions the entire chapter's entropic method rests on — every subsequent Lipschitz-concentration result in the chapter (including Theorem 3.4 and the more advanced Theorem 3.24) is obtained by first establishing an entropy bound of one of these two forms and then invoking the corresponding proposition. Theorem 3.4 is itself the direct analogue, for independent bounded variables, of Chapter 2's Gaussian Lipschitz concentration (Theorem 2.26) — but crucially requires the extra hypothesis of separate convexity, which the Gaussian case does not need and which cannot be dropped in general.

Formalizing it. No faithful prior art exists on the platform. The one candidate flagged in BRIEF.md, Talagrand.lipschitz_concentration, was read in full: it is a weighted-Hamming- distance concentration bound for functions on a finite-alphabet product space Fin n → α, proved via Talagrand's convex-distance method — a different underlying space (finite alphabet vs. real-valued bounded coordinates) and a different Lipschitz norm (weighted Hamming vs. Euclidean) from Theorem 3.4, and not reused here. A search for "log-Sobolev" and "Herbst" turned up bousquet_herbst_cgf_le_phi_via_herbst/bousquet_herbst_cgf_le_phi_double_integration: these are abstract calculus lemmas about a generic function GGG satisfying an ODE-type growth condition (G′′≤vexG''\le ve^xG′′≤vex), concluding G(L)≤v(eL−1−L)G(L)\le v(e^L-1-L)G(L)≤v(eL−1−L) — a genuinely different statement shape from Proposition 3.2/3.3's entropy-to-CGF conversions (which conclude a quadratic, not exponential, bound on log⁡E[eλ(X−EX)]\log\mathbb E[e^{\lambda(X-\mathbb EX)}]logE[eλ(X−EX)]), and not a faithful match. All three theorems here are drafted as open goals (:= by sorry).

Difficulty

The naive approach to Theorem 3.4 — try to adapt the bounded-differences (martingale) method of Chapter 2 directly — fails, because the bounded-differences method needs fff to have small coordinatewise oscillation in an absolute sense, while separate convexity alone gives no such uniform bound (a separately convex function can vary arbitrarily fast within the interior of its domain, only its slope is controlled by the Lipschitz condition). The entropic method sidesteps this by working with the φ\varphiφ-entropy of eλf(X)e^{\lambda f(X)}eλf(X) directly: entropy has a tensorization property across independent coordinates (not itself part of this mission, but what the entropic method's proof of Theorem 3.4 uses) that reduces a multivariate entropy bound to a sum of "one coordinate at a time" contributions, each of which convexity and the Lipschitz condition jointly control — a route with no analogue in the bounded-differences approach.

Formalization scope

Separate convexity and Euclidean-Lipschitzness are both restated locally in this chapter's own sub-namespace (HighDimStat.Concentration), per this book series' rule against importing another chapter's draft definitions, even though Chapter 2 already defines an IsLLipschitz for the same Euclidean condition. φ_X'(\lambda)$ (Proposition 3.3) is realized via Mathlib's deriv, a legitimate way to state a hypothesis on a derivative without separately proving differentiability, appropriate at the draft-statement stage. Explicit Integrable` hypotheses guard the Bochner integral's junk value on non-integrable functions throughout (trap 2), not literal in the book's own propositions but implied by what "the entropy H(eλX)H(e^{\lambda X})H(eλX) exists" (an explicit qualifier the book itself makes when introducing Eq. (3.2)) means.

Goal substitution, disclosed. BRIEF.md recommends Theorem 3.24 (the two-sided, jointly convex analogue) as the primary goal, but explicitly names Theorem 3.4 as a fallback "if 3.24's dependence on the unnumbered transportation-cost inequality (Eq. 3.73, attributed to Samson) proves too heavy to state faithfully in the time available." Theorem 3.24's proof route depends on Theorem 3.19 (a general "transportation cost implies concentration" result for an abstract metric measure space, itself needing a from-scratch formalization of the transportation-cost inequality (3.58) and the concentration function αP,(X,ρ)\alpha_{P,(\mathcal X,\rho)}αP,(X,ρ)​) plus the unproven-in-chapter Eq. (3.73). Building this full stack faithfully was judged to exceed this chunk's time budget; Theorem 3.4 is drafted instead, using this mission's own budget on Propositions 3.2 and 3.3 (the two most load-bearing entropy-to-tail conversions of the chapter) rather than the heavier transportation-cost machinery. Theorem 3.19, Theorem 3.24, and Eq. (3.73) are all out of scope for this mission and named here as natural follow-on work.

Selected references

  • M. J. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019. DOI: 10.1017/9781108627771. Chapter 3.
  • M. Ledoux, The Concentration of Measure Phenomenon, American Mathematical Society, 2001.
  • I. Herbst, unpublished (the argument bearing his name is attributed in Ledoux (2001) and standard references on log-Sobolev inequalities).
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Machine LearningStatisticsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning X: Regression and Rademacher Complexity BoundsTextbook

Motivation

Every generalization bound presented so far in this series is for classification, where the error of a prediction is binary (correct or not). Regression asks a different question: predictions are real-valued, and error is measured by the magnitude of the deviation from the true label, via a loss function L. Chapter 11 develops generalization theory for bounded regression, showing that the same two complexity measures used for classification — Rademacher complexity and a VC-dimension analogue — extend naturally, once the loss function itself is folded into the machinery via a Lipschitz-contraction argument (Rademacher route) or a reduction to classification via level-set thresholding (pseudo-dimension route).

Setting

A regression hypothesis h:X→ℝ is scored by a loss L:ℝ×ℝ→ℝ against a joint distribution D on X×ℝ (the stochastic scenario, since regression labels are rarely exactly reproducible); R(h) = E_{(x,y)~D}[L(h(x),y)] (Eq. 11.1) and R̂_S(h) = (1/m)∑L(h(x_i),y_i) (Eq. 11.2). For a finite hypothesis set, Theorem 11.1 gives a Hoeffding/union-bound guarantee directly, the regression analogue of chunk 02-pac's finite-hypothesis bound. For infinite H, §11.2.2 develops a Rademacher-complexity route: Proposition 11.2 shows that if L is µ-Lipschitz in its first (predicted-value) argument, the Rademacher complexity of the loss-composed family G = {(x,y)↦L(h(x),y) : h∈H} is controlled by µ times H's own Rademacher complexity, via Talagrand's contraction lemma (chunk 05-svm's Lemma 5.7); Theorem 11.3 combines this with chunk 03's Theorem 3.3 to give the chapter's headline bound. §11.2.3 develops an independent, purely combinatorial route: pseudo-dimension (Definition 11.5), a real-valued analogue of VC-dimension defined via threshold-witnessed shattering (Definition 11.4, restated via its own Eq. 11.3 as the VC-dimension of a thresholded indicator family); Theorem 11.8 gives a pseudo-dimension generalization bound by reducing regression to a family of classification problems (one per threshold t), using the tail-integral identity Eq. 11.5.

Formalization targets

Theorem 11.1 (milestone). For L bounded by M and H finite: for any δ>0, with probability at least 1-δ, for all h∈H: R(h) ≤ R̂_S(h) + M√((log|H|+log(1/δ))/(2m)).

Proposition 11.2 (milestone). For L non-negative, bounded by M, µ-Lipschitz in its first argument: for any sample S, R̂_S(G) ≤ µR̂_S(H).

Theorem 11.3 — the mission's goal. Under Proposition 11.2's hypotheses on L: for any δ>0, with probability at least 1-δ, for all h∈H: E[L(h(x),y)] ≤ (1/m)∑L(h(x_i),y_i) + 2µR_m(H) + M√(log(1/δ)/(2m)), and also with 2µR̂_S(H) + 3M√(log(2/δ)/(2m)).

Theorem 11.8 (milestone). For Pdim(G)=d, L non-negative bounded by M: for any δ>0, with probability at least 1-δ over a sample of size m, for all h∈H: R(h) ≤ R̂_S(h) + M√(2d log(em/d)/m) + M√(log(1/δ)/(2m)).

Significance

Theorem 11.3 is the chapter's own choice of headline result (§11.2's stated goal is to show "how the Rademacher complexity bounds of theorem 3.3 can be used to derive generalization bounds for regression"), and its proof genuinely reuses two pieces of prior machinery from this series — chunk 03's Theorem 3.3 and chunk 05's Talagrand's-lemma-style contraction — combined via a new observation (Proposition 11.2) specific to loss-composed families, not a restatement of either. Theorem 11.8 is the chapter's second, structurally independent technique: its em/d bound parallels chunk 03's Corollary 3.19 (both ultimately reduce to a VC-dimension-style growth-function argument), but the reduction itself — regression to a continuum of threshold classification problems, via the Lebesgue-integral tail identity Eq. (11.5) applied to |R(h)-R̂_S(h)| — is genuinely new content for this book, and pseudo-dimension has no prior art on the platform or in Mathlib. No prior art exists for this chapter's overall content either: GET /theorems?q=generalization%20bound%20regression and GET /theorems?q=pseudo-dimension both return zero hits.

Difficulty

Proposition 11.2's proof needs Talagrand's contraction lemma applied with the Lipschitz constant taken in the first argument of L only — the predicted value h(x_i), holding the true label y_i fixed — exactly the pitfall BRIEF.md names: a loss Lipschitz in the wrong argument, or in both arguments jointly, would not license this step. Theorem 11.8's proof is the chapter's most involved: it defines, for every h∈H and threshold t≥0, a classifier c(h,t):(x,y)↦1_{L(h(x),y)>t}, bounds |R(h)-R̂_S(h)| by M·sup_{t∈[0,M]}|R(c(h,t))- R̂_S(c(h,t))| via the tail-integral identity, and then applies a VC-dimension-style classification bound (Corollary 3.19) to the family of thresholded classifiers — whose VC-dimension is, by Eq. (11.3), exactly Pdim(G) by construction. A formalization that conflated pseudo-dimension with ordinary VC-dimension, or reused chunk 03's HasVCDim definition by relabeling, would misrepresent this chapter's genuinely different (real-valued, threshold-witnessed) combinatorial notion — precisely the pitfall BRIEF.md flags.

Formalization scope

Y := ℝ throughout (the book's own "Y a measurable subset of ℝ"), a harmless simplification consistent with every hypothesis, loss and Lipschitz condition in this chapter being stated for real-valued scores and labels. EmpiricalRademacherComplexity/ RademacherComplexity restate chunk 03-rademacher-vc's Definitions 3.1/3.2 locally, since a draft item cannot import another chunk's draft module. Shatters/PseudoDim are formalized via the book's own equivalent reformulation (Eq. 11.3, the thresholded-indicator form), rather than the sign-function form of Definition 11.4 directly, since the two coincide except at a measure-zero boundary the book itself does not address; PseudoDim mirrors chunk 03's HasVCDim Prop-valued pattern (does not cover Pdim(G)=+∞; every consuming theorem takes it as an explicit hypothesis) but is a structurally distinct definition built on Shatters, never a relabeling of HasVCDim, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note. Proposition 11.2's and Theorem 11.3's Lipschitz hypothesis (hLlip) is stated with the true label y' universally quantified outside the two-point comparison y1, y2 (the predicted values), matching "for any fixed y' ∈ Y, y ↦ L(y,y') is µ-Lipschitz" exactly — Lipschitzness in the first argument only, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note. RademacherComplexity (Measure.map Prod.fst D) H m gives the book's R_m(H) (H's Rademacher complexity under the marginal sampling distribution of the inputs x, i.e. D's first marginal). No numerical constant is altered from the book in any of the four theorems.

Not formalized: the L_p-loss worked example following Theorem 11.3's proof (an instantiation of the general theorem for a specific loss family, not a separate numbered theorem); Theorem 11.6 and Theorem 11.7 (worked pseudo-dimension examples for hyperplanes and vector spaces, background/illustration rather than the chapter's general machinery — drafting only these examples instead of the general Theorem 11.8 would be this chapter's trivializing formalization); the two-sided variant of Theorem 11.1 mentioned immediately after its proof (an unnumbered remark, not a separately displayed/numbered theorem); and all of §11.3 (linear regression, kernel ridge regression, SVR, Lasso and their online variants), which is applications-heavy per BRIEF.md's chapter restriction to §11.1-11.2.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 11 (§11.1-11.2).
  • D. Haussler, "Decision theoretic generalizations of the PAC model for neural net and other learning applications," Information and Computation 100(1), 1992 (pseudo-dimension's origin).
  • D. Pollard, Convergence of Stochastic Processes, Springer, 1984 (the tail-integral identity Eq. 11.5's classical antecedent).
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics IX: Nuclear-Norm Regularization for Low-Rank Matrix RegressionTextbook

Motivation

Many estimation problems are naturally posed over matrices rather than vectors: recommender systems (Netflix-style matrix completion), multivariate regression with correlated responses, vector autoregressive time series, and phase retrieval all reduce to estimating an unknown matrix Θ∗\Theta^*Θ∗ that is low-rank, or well approximated by one. A rank constraint alone makes the natural least-squares estimator non-convex and generally intractable; replacing it with the nuclear norm — the sum of the matrix's singular values, the tightest convex surrogate for rank — yields a tractable semidefinite program. Wainwright's High-Dimensional Statistics (2019), Chapter 10, shows that this substitution costs nothing statistically: nuclear-norm-regularized least squares achieves error rates matching what one could hope for even knowing the rank in advance, by specializing Chapter 9's general decomposable-regularizer framework (mission 09-decomposability) directly to the nuclear norm.

Setting

For matrices A,B∈Rd1×d2A,B\in\mathbb R^{d_1\times d_2}A,B∈Rd1​×d2​, the trace inner product is ⟨ ⁣⟨A,B⟩ ⁣⟩:=trace(ATB)=∑j1,j2Aj1j2Bj1j2\langle\!\langle A,B\rangle\!\rangle := \mathrm{trace}(A^TB) = \sum_{j_1,j_2}A_{j_1j_2}B_{j_1j_2}⟨⟨A,B⟩⟩:=trace(ATB)=∑j1​,j2​​Aj1​j2​​Bj1​j2​​ (Eq. 10.1), inducing the Frobenius norm ∥ ⁣∣A∣ ⁣∥F\|\!|A|\!\|_F∥∣A∣∥F​. Given design matrices X1,…,Xn∈Rd1×d2X_1,\dots,X_n\in\mathbb R^{d_1\times d_2}X1​,…,Xn​∈Rd1​×d2​ and responses yi=⟨ ⁣⟨Xi,Θ∗⟩ ⁣⟩+wiy_i=\langle\!\langle X_i,\Theta^*\rangle\!\rangle+w_iyi​=⟨⟨Xi​,Θ∗⟩⟩+wi​, the observation operator Xn(Θ):=(⟨ ⁣⟨Xi,Θ⟩ ⁣⟩)i=1n\mathcal X_n(\Theta):=(\langle\!\langle X_i,\Theta\rangle\!\rangle)_{i=1}^nXn​(Θ):=(⟨⟨Xi​,Θ⟩⟩)i=1n​ and its adjoint Xn∗(u):=∑iuiXi\mathcal X_n^*(u):=\sum_iu_iX_iXn∗​(u):=∑i​ui​Xi​ (Eqs. 10.2-10.3) are the matrix analogs of a vector design matrix and its transpose. The nuclear norm ∥ ⁣∣Θ∣ ⁣∥nuc:=∑jσj(Θ)\|\!|\Theta|\!\|_{\mathrm{nuc}}:=\sum_j\sigma_j(\Theta)∥∣Θ∣∥nuc​:=∑j​σj​(Θ) (Eq. 10.5) — the sum of singular values — is a decomposable regularizer (in the sense of Chapter 9) with respect to the subspace pair spanned by the top singular vectors of any target matrix, and its dual norm (Table 9.1) is the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-operator (spectral) norm ∥ ⁣∣⋅∣ ⁣∥2\|\!|\cdot|\!\|_2∥∣⋅∣∥2​. The estimator under study is nuclear-norm-regularized least squares,

Θ^∈arg min⁡Θ∈Rd1×d2{12n∥y−Xn(Θ)∥22+λn∥ ⁣∣Θ∣ ⁣∥nuc}(10.16)\hat\Theta \in \operatorname*{arg\,min}_{\Theta\in\mathbb R^{d_1\times d_2}} \left\{ \frac{1}{2n}\|y-\mathcal X_n(\Theta)\|_2^2 + \lambda_n\|\!|\Theta|\!\|_{\mathrm{nuc}} \right\} \tag{10.16}Θ^∈Θ∈Rd1​×d2​argmin​{2n1​∥y−Xn​(Θ)∥22​+λn​∥∣Θ∣∥nuc​}(10.16)

with λn>0\lambda_n>0λn​>0 user-chosen.

Formalization targets

Goal (Proposition 10.6)

Suppose Xn\mathcal X_nXn​ satisfies the restricted strong convexity condition (10.17), ∥Xn(Δ)∥22/(2n)≥κ/2∥ ⁣∣Δ∣ ⁣∥F2−c0d1+d2n∥ ⁣∣Δ∣ ⁣∥nuc2\|\mathcal X_n(\Delta)\|_2^2/(2n) \ge \kappa/2\|\!|\Delta|\!\|_F^2 - c_0\frac{d_1+d_2}{n}\|\!|\Delta|\!\|_{\mathrm{nuc}}^2∥Xn​(Δ)∥22​/(2n)≥κ/2∥∣Δ∣∥F2​−c0​nd1​+d2​​∥∣Δ∣∥nuc2​ for all Δ\DeltaΔ, with κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, c0≥0c_0\ge 0c0​≥0. Conditioned on the good event G(λn)={∥ ⁣∣1n∑iwiXi∣ ⁣∥2≤λn/2}\mathcal G(\lambda_n)=\{\|\!|\frac1n\sum_iw_iX_i|\!\|_2 \le\lambda_n/2\}G(λn​)={∥∣n1​∑i​wi​Xi​∣∥2​≤λn​/2}, any optimal Θ^\hat\ThetaΘ^ satisfies, for any r∈{1,…,d′}r\in\{1,\dots,d'\}r∈{1,…,d′} with r≤κn/(128c0(d1+d2))r\le\kappa n/(128c_0(d_1+d_2))r≤κn/(128c0​(d1​+d2​)),

∥ ⁣∣Θ^−Θ∗∣ ⁣∥F2≤92λn2κ2r+1κ{2λn∑j=r+1d′σj(Θ∗)+32c0(d1+d2)n(∑j=r+1d′σj(Θ∗))2}.\|\!|\hat\Theta-\Theta^*|\!\|_F^2 \le \frac{9}{2}\frac{\lambda_n^2}{\kappa^2}r + \frac{1}{\kappa}\left\{2\lambda_n\sum_{j=r+1}^{d'}\sigma_j(\Theta^*) + \frac{32c_0(d_1+d_2)}{n}\left(\sum_{j=r+1}^{d'}\sigma_j(\Theta^*)\right)^2\right\}.∥∣Θ^−Θ∗∣∥F2​≤29​κ2λn2​​r+κ1​⎩⎨⎧​2λn​j=r+1∑d′​σj​(Θ∗)+n32c0​(d1​+d2​)​​j=r+1∑d′​σj​(Θ∗)​2⎭⎬⎫​.

Milestone (Proposition 10.7)

Under the alternative Φ∗\Phi^*Φ∗-curvature condition (10.20) (a curvature bound on the gradient map rather than the Taylor error), with rank(Θ∗)<κ/(64τn)\mathrm{rank}(\Theta^*)<\kappa/(64\tau_n)rank(Θ∗)<κ/(64τn​): conditioned on G(λn)={∥ ⁣∣1nXn∗(w)∣ ⁣∥2≤λn/2}\mathcal G(\lambda_n)=\{\|\!|\frac1n\mathcal X_n^*(w)|\!\|_2\le\lambda_n/2\}G(λn​)={∥∣n1​Xn∗​(w)∣∥2​≤λn​/2}, any optimal Θ^\hat\ThetaΘ^ satisfies ∥ ⁣∣Θ^−Θ∗∣ ⁣∥2≤32 λn/κ\|\!|\hat\Theta-\Theta^*|\!\|_2 \le 3\sqrt2\,\lambda_n/\kappa∥∣Θ^−Θ∗∣∥2​≤32​λn​/κ — an operator-norm bound the book notes is, in conjunction with the cone-like constraint (10.15), strictly stronger than Proposition 10.6's Frobenius-norm bound.

Significance

Proposition 10.6 is this chapter's direct payoff from Chapter 9's general machinery: it shows that the deterministic backbone of the Lasso's guarantee (mission 07-sparse-linear) extends essentially verbatim to the matrix setting, with the sparsity level sss replaced by the target rank rrr and the ambient dimension ddd replaced by d1+d2d_1+d_2d1​+d2​ — exactly the "degrees of freedom" scaling one would predict by counting the parameters needed to specify a rank-rrr matrix. Every one of the chapter's later corollaries (matrix compressed sensing, multivariate regression, matrix completion) is obtained by verifying the restricted strong convexity condition (10.17) holds with high probability for a specific random design, then reading the rate directly off Proposition 10.6 — the same two-step recipe Chapter 9's own Theorem 9.19 established abstractly. Proposition 10.7's operator-norm bound is what subsequently controls the individual singular values of the estimation error, needed for exact-rank-recovery guarantees.

Difficulty

Both results are direct specializations of Chapter 9's general oracle inequalities (Theorem 9.19 and Theorem 9.24 respectively) to the nuclear norm as regularizer and the Frobenius/operator norm pair, so their formalization difficulty lies almost entirely in getting the matrix-specific objects right rather than in new proof machinery: the nuclear norm requires an actual notion of singular values (realized via the eigenvalues of the Gram matrix ΘTΘ\Theta^T\ThetaΘTΘ, using Mathlib's Hermitian-matrix spectral theorem), the operator norm requires the correct rectangular generalization of the symmetric-matrix Rayleigh-quotient characterization used in mission 08-pca, and the restricted-strong-convexity and curvature conditions must be instantiated against the correctly-adjointed observation operator Xn∗\mathcal X_n^*Xn∗​. A further subtlety is keeping Proposition 10.6's Frobenius-norm conclusion and Proposition 10.7's operator-norm conclusion cleanly distinct — the book itself warns against conflating the norms used across different chapters of Part II (the vector ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​-norm of chunks 07-sparse-linear/08-pca versus the matrix Frobenius and operator norms here).

Formalization scope

Scope cut, disclosed here and in STATUS.md. BRIEF.md recommends Corollary 10.10 (the sample-complexity bound for the Σ\SigmaΣ-Gaussian random matrix ensemble) as the goal theorem. Corollary 10.10 is a genuinely probabilistic statement — it asserts a bound holding "with probability at least 1−2e−2nδ21-2e^{-2n\delta^2}1−2e−2nδ2" over nnn i.i.d. draws of design matrices from a Σ\SigmaΣ-Gaussian ensemble (Theorem 10.8's own high-probability restricted-strong-convexity certification for that ensemble) — and formalizing it faithfully would require a genuine multivariate-Gaussian-measure infrastructure on matrix space (a probability space, an i.i.d. sequence of Σ\SigmaΣ-covariance-structured Gaussian matrices, and Mathlib's measure-theoretic probability API) that is disproportionate to this mission's time budget, and orthogonal to what Chapter 10 itself contributes (the chapter's own text stresses that Propositions 10.6 and 10.7 are the chapter's deterministic core, with probability entering only in Section 10.3's ensemble-specific certification — precisely mirroring chunk 09-decomposability's own "Theorem 9.19 is actually a deterministic result" framing). This mission instead takes Proposition 10.6 as its goal — explicitly named in BRIEF.md's own candidate list as "the nuclear-norm oracle inequality, an explicit corollary of Theorem 9.19" — the natural, tractable, still highly citable deterministic title result of Section 10.2, together with its companion Proposition 10.7. Theorem 10.8 (the Σ\SigmaΣ-Gaussian ensemble's RSC certification), Corollary 10.9 (noiseless exact recovery) and Corollary 10.10 itself are left for a future mission with a dedicated probability-theory budget. The cone-like constraint (Eq. 10.15) — whose own faithful statement requires the same explicit subspace-pair machinery (M(Ur,Vr),Mˉ(Ur,Vr)\mathcal M(U_r,V_r),\bar{\mathcal M}(U_r,V_r)M(Ur​,Vr​),Mˉ(Ur​,Vr​)) chunk 09-decomposability built for the general theory — is similarly left out, since Propositions 10.6 and 10.7's own numbered statements never expose these subspaces directly (only their proofs do, via instantiating Theorem 9.19/9.24). singularValues and nuclearNorm are noncomputable, defined via Mathlib's Hermitian-matrix eigenvalue spectral theorem; c0 ≥ 0 and λn > 0 are made explicit, matching this book's running conventions for RSC tolerance constants and regularization weights (see MODERATION_NOTES.md).

Selected references

  • Wainwright, M. J. High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2019. Chapter 10. DOI: 10.1017/9781108627771.
  • Negahban, S., Wainwright, M. J. "Estimation of (near) low-rank matrices with noise and high-dimensional scaling." Annals of Statistics, 39(2), 2011, 1069–1097.
  • Recht, B., Fazel, M., Parrilo, P. A. "Guaranteed minimum-rank solutions of linear matrix equations via nuclear norm minimization." SIAM Review, 52(3), 2010, 471–501.
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Machine LearningStatisticsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning V: Kernel Methods and the Representer TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Linear methods like SVMs work only when the classes are linearly separable, but most real data is not. Chapter 6 shows how to get non-linear decision boundaries for free: replace the input space's inner product with a kernel KKK that implicitly computes an inner product in a (possibly very high- or infinite-dimensional) feature space, without ever explicitly computing the feature mapping. This works for any positive definite symmetric (PDS) kernel — and the chapter's central theorem shows that such a kernel always induces a genuine Hilbert space (the reproducing kernel Hilbert space, RKHS) in which the kernel is literally an inner product. The chapter's capstone, the representer theorem, then shows that a broad class of optimization problems over this (possibly infinite-dimensional) Hilbert space always has a solution expressible as a finite linear combination of kernel evaluations at the training points — turning an infinite-dimensional problem into a finite, mmm-dimensional one.

Setting

A kernel K:X×X→RK:X\times X\to\mathbb RK:X×X→R is PDS (Definition 6.3) if for every finite sample {x1,…,xm}⊆X\{x_1,\dots,x_m\}\subseteq X{x1​,…,xm​}⊆X, the Gram matrix [K(xi,xj)][K(x_i,x_j)][K(xi​,xj​)] is symmetric positive semidefinite. Theorem 6.8 shows every PDS kernel is an inner product K(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩K(x,x')=\langle \Phi(x),\Phi(x')\rangleK(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩ in some Hilbert space HHH (the RKHS), which further has the reproducing property h(x)=⟨h,K(x,⋅)⟩h(x)=\langle h,K(x,\cdot)\rangleh(x)=⟨h,K(x,⋅)⟩ for every h∈Hh\in Hh∈H — evaluating hhh at a point is itself an inner product with the kernel section at that point. Theorem 6.10 shows PDS kernels are closed under sum, product, tensor product, pointwise limit, and power-series composition, letting complex kernels (Gaussian, and many others) be built from simple ones (polynomial kernels) without re-verifying positive-semidefiniteness from scratch. Section 6.3's representer theorem (Theorem 6.11) then considers minimizing, over h∈Hh\in Hh∈H, an objective F(h)=G(∥h∥H)+L(h(x1),…,h(xm))F(h)=G(\|h\|_H)+L(h(x_1),\dots,h(x_m))F(h)=G(∥h∥H​)+L(h(x1​),…,h(xm​)) that depends on hhh only through its norm and its values at mmm fixed points.

Formalization targets

Theorem 6.8 (RKHS existence, milestone). For a PDS kernel KKK, there exist a Hilbert space HHH and Φ:X→H\Phi:X\to HΦ:X→H with K(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩K(x,x')=\langle\Phi(x),\Phi(x')\rangleK(x,x′)=⟨Φ(x),Φ(x′)⟩, and HHH has the reproducing property h(x)=⟨h,K(x,⋅)⟩h(x)=\langle h,K(x,\cdot)\rangleh(x)=⟨h,K(x,⋅)⟩ for all h∈Hh\in Hh∈H, x∈Xx\in Xx∈X.

Theorem 6.10 (closure properties, milestone). PDS kernels are closed under sum, product, tensor product, pointwise limit, and power-series composition with non-negative coefficients.

Theorem 6.11 — the mission's goal. For any non-decreasing G:R→RG:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RG:R→R and any loss L:Rm→R∪{+∞}L:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}L:Rm→R∪{+∞}, argminh∈HG(∥h∥H)+L(h(x1),…,h(xm))\mathrm{argmin}_{h\in H} G(\|h\|_H)+ L(h(x_1),\dots,h(x_m))argminh∈H​G(∥h∥H​)+L(h(x1​),…,h(xm​)) admits a solution h⋆=∑i=1mαiK(xi,⋅)h^\star=\sum_{i=1}^m\alpha_i K(x_i,\cdot)h⋆=∑i=1m​αi​K(xi​,⋅); if GGG is increasing, every solution has this form.

Significance

Theorem 6.11 is the chapter's payoff and one of the most widely used structural results in kernel methods: it explains, in one general statement covering SVMs, kernel ridge regression, Gaussian process MAP estimation and many other algorithms simultaneously, why the dual (finite, mmm-coefficient) formulation always suffices — the RKHS's infinite dimensionality never has to be confronted directly. Theorem 6.8 is the structural fact the whole chapter (and every later kernelized algorithm in the book, chapters 9-11, 15) depends on: without it, "PDS kernel" would be a purely combinatorial condition on Gram matrices with no guarantee it corresponds to any actual inner product. No prior art on the Prove2Me platform is faithful to any of this chapter's content: GET /theorems?q=Representer theorem and q=reproducing kernel return no faithful match (one unrelated hit concerns a Gaussian-measure reproducing kernel in a different, probabilistic context, not this chapter's PDS-kernel/RKHS construction). All six items are drafted fresh.

Difficulty

Theorem 6.8's proof is a genuine construction: define H0H_0H0​ as finite linear combinations of kernel sections Φ(x)=K(x,⋅)\Phi(x)=K(x,\cdot)Φ(x)=K(x,⋅), define an inner product on H0H_0H0​ using KKK itself, verify it is well-defined (independent of the representation), positive semidefinite (via the PDS hypothesis), and — via the Cauchy-Schwarz-for-PDS-kernels lemma (Lemma 6.7) — actually positive definite, then complete H0H_0H0​ to a genuine Hilbert space HHH in which it is dense, and finally extend the reproducing property from the dense subspace H0H_0H0​ to all of HHH by a continuity argument. This is substantial analysis, not a restatement. Theorem 6.11's proof uses the orthogonal decomposition H=H1⊕H1⊥H=H_1\oplus H_1^\perpH=H1​⊕H1⊥​ (where H1=span{K(xi,⋅)}H_1=\mathrm{span}\{K(x_i, \cdot)\}H1​=span{K(xi​,⋅)}) and the reproducing property to show the orthogonal component h⊥h^\perph⊥ never helps and, when GGG is strictly increasing, strictly hurts — a short argument, but one that depends essentially on Theorem 6.8's reproducing property holding for the specific HHH constructed, not just any Hilbert space with the kernel as its inner product.

Formalization scope

IsPDS uses the book's own second SPSD characterization (c^T K c ≥ 0 for every finite sample and coefficient vector c) rather than the non-negative-eigenvalues characterization, avoiding spectral theory for a Prop-valued definition; the book states the two are equivalent. IsRKHSOf and IsMinimizer are formalization scaffolding, not book-numbered definitions: IsRKHSOf packages Theorem 6.8's own two displayed equations (6.8, 6.9) as a reusable predicate shared between Theorem 6.8 (its conclusion) and Theorem 6.11 (its "H its corresponding RKHS" hypothesis), using an explicit evaluation map ev : H → X → ℝ to stand in for "elements of H are functions on X," since Mathlib's abstract Hilbert spaces are not themselves spaces of functions; IsMinimizer packages argmin. Both X in Theorem 6.8's existential and Theorem 6.11's ambient type are plain Type rather than Type*, avoiding universe-polymorphic quantification over the constructed Hilbert space's own type — a harmless simplification, since every application in this book instantiates X at a concrete, small type (typically RN\mathbb R^NRN or a finite set). Theorem 6.11's loss codomain ℝ ∪ {+∞} is WithTop ℝ, not EReal (which would also admit -∞, an unstated generalization the book's own display does not license, since EReal's ⊤+⊥=⊥ collapse is a genuine faithfulness risk the book's own L:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\} avoids by construction). WithTop ℝ on its own does not avoid every collapse, though: an unconstrained L may be the constant function ⊤ (a legal instance of ℝ∪\{+\infty\}), forcing the objective identically ⊤ and every point to vacuously minimize it, which would make the theorem's second conjunct false. An added hypothesis, ∃ h₀, F h₀ ≠ ⊤, makes explicit the book's own implicit assumption that the objective is finite somewhere — see the Formalization scope note below. Theorem 6.11's two clauses are otherwise kept exactly as distinct as the book states them: existence needs only Monotone G (non-decreasing); "any solution has this form" needs StrictMono G (increasing) as an added hypothesis on the second conjunct only — per this chunk's own BRIEF.md, the crux of the theorem, and the trap this mission is most careful to avoid collapsing. Theorem 6.10's five closure clauses are stated as one conjunction (matching the book's single theorem, not five separate items); the power-series clause keeps the book's own radius-of-convergence domain restriction and adds an explicit summability hypothesis guarding the ∑' term.

Not formalized: Theorem 6.2 (Mercer's condition) — not needed by the goal's own proof chain (it is an equivalent characterization of PDS mentioned before the RKHS construction, not a premise Theorem 6.8's or 6.11's proof invokes) and its own hypotheses (compact X⊂RNX\subset \mathbb R^NX⊂RN, continuous KKK, an eigenfunction expansion of a compact self-adjoint integral operator) are real analytic content this mission's budget does not include; Lemma 6.7 (Cauchy-Schwarz for PDS kernels) and Lemma 6.9 (normalized PDS kernels) — supporting lemmas for Theorem 6.8's proof, not independently numbered results the goal cites; Theorem 6.12/Corollary 6.13 (Rademacher complexity/margin bounds for kernel-based hypotheses) — the chapter's optional further milestone, connecting to chunks 03/05's machinery, cut for budget; §6.5-6.8 (sequence kernels, weighted transducers, rational kernels, Bochner's theorem, approximate feature maps) — explicitly out of scope per this chunk's own BRIEF.md, a distinct, applications-heavy topic.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 6, §6.1-6.4.
  • B. Schölkopf, R. Herbrich, A. J. Smola, "A generalized representer theorem," COLT 2001, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 2111, 2001, 416-426.
  • N. Aronszajn, "Theory of reproducing kernels," Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 68(3), 1950, 337-404.
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Machine LearningRandom Matrix TheoryStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Probability IV: Norms of Random Matrices with Sub-gaussian EntriesTextbook

Motivation

Random matrices with independent entries appear whenever a system is measured through many noisy, roughly independent channels: shot noise in a sensor array, edges in an Erdős–Rényi-type random graph, or the design matrix of a linear model with independent covariates. A basic question about any such matrix AAA is how far it can stretch a vector — its operator norm ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥ — since this single number controls the stability of every linear statistic computed from AAA: least-squares estimates, spectral clustering, covariance estimation, and random projections all reduce, at some point, to bounding ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥.

The theory traces to Marchenko and Pastur's 1967 asymptotic law for the spectrum of large random matrices, and to Bai and Yin's 1988 almost-sure limit ∥A∥/n→2\|A\|/\sqrt n \to 2∥A∥/n​→2 for n×nn \times nn×n matrices with i.i.d. mean-zero, unit-variance entries. Those results are asymptotic: they say what happens as the dimension n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, for a fixed matrix shape. The result formalized here, Theorem 4.4.5 of Vershynin's High-Dimensional Probability (2018) (DOI 10.1017/9781108231596), belongs to the more recent non-asymptotic strand of the theory: it gives an explicit, dimension-free bound that holds at every fixed m,nm, nm,n, with an explicit failure probability — the form of statement needed for finite-sample guarantees in statistics and data science, rather than limiting behavior.

Setting

Let AAA be an m×nm \times nm×n real matrix. Equip Rn\mathbb R^nRn and Rm\mathbb R^mRm with the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​; AAA acts as a linear map ℓ2n→ℓ2m\ell_2^n \to \ell_2^mℓ2n​→ℓ2m​. Its operator norm (§4.1.2) is

∥A∥  :=  max⁡x∈Sn−1∥Ax∥2,\|A\| \;:=\; \max_{x \in S^{n-1}} \|Ax\|_2 ,∥A∥:=x∈Sn−1max​∥Ax∥2​,

the largest factor by which AAA can stretch a unit vector; equivalently, the largest singular value of AAA.

A real random variable XXX is sub-gaussian with the mission's own convention (matching the Orlicz ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ norm this series already carries as a published definition, HighDimProb.Concentration.subgaussianNorm) if

∥X∥ψ2  :=  inf⁡{t>0:Eexp⁡(X2/t2)≤2}  <  ∞.\|X\|_{\psi_2} \;:=\; \inf\{t > 0 : \mathbb E \exp(X^2/t^2) \le 2\} \;<\; \infty .∥X∥ψ2​​:=inf{t>0:Eexp(X2/t2)≤2}<∞.

Bounded random variables and Gaussians are sub-gaussian; a Bernoulli(ppp) variable and a ±1\pm 1±1-valued coin flip both qualify, which is why the theorem below directly covers random matrices with i.i.d. Rademacher or Gaussian entries as special cases.

The mission's proof technique is the ε-net argument, developed in §4.2 and used nowhere before this chapter of the book: a metric space (T,d)(T,d)(T,d), a subset K⊆TK \subseteq TK⊆T, and ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 give rise to an ε-net N⊆KN \subseteq KN⊆K — a finite set such that every point of KKK is within ε\varepsilonε of some point of NNN — and a covering number N(K,d,ε)N(K, d, \varepsilon)N(K,d,ε), the smallest cardinality of such a net. The technique reduces a statement that must hold uniformly over an infinite (compact) set to a statement about finitely many points, paid for by a union bound whose cost is controlled by the covering number.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 4.4.5)

∃ C>0  such that  ∀ t>0,Prob{ ∥A∥≤CK(m+n+t) }  ≥  1−2exp⁡(−t2),\exists\, C > 0 \;\text{such that}\; \forall\, t > 0,\quad \mathrm{Prob}\bigl\{\, \|A\| \le CK(\sqrt m + \sqrt n + t) \,\bigr\} \;\ge\; 1 - 2\exp(-t^2),∃C>0such that∀t>0,Prob{∥A∥≤CK(m​+n​+t)}≥1−2exp(−t2),

for any m×nm \times nm×n random matrix AAA with independent, mean-zero, sub-gaussian entries AijA_{ij}Aij​ and K=max⁡i,j∥Aij∥ψ2K = \max_{i,j} \|A_{ij}\|_{\psi_2}K=maxi,j​∥Aij​∥ψ2​​. This is the weakest stable form of the bound — it fixes no numerical value for CCC, only its existence and absoluteness (independence from mmm, nnn, AAA, ttt), so later refinements of the constant do not invalidate it.

Significance

The result itself. The bound ∥A∥≲m+n\|A\| \lesssim \sqrt m + \sqrt n∥A∥≲m​+n​ is sharp up to the constant: for entries of unit variance, E∥A∥≥14(m+n)\mathbb E\|A\| \ge \tfrac14(\sqrt m + \sqrt n)E∥A∥≥41​(m​+n​) for large m,nm, nm,n (the book's Exercise 4.4.7), so no non-asymptotic bound of this shape can be improved beyond constants. It is the entry point to the rest of the book's random matrix theory: Corollary 4.4.8 specializes it to symmetric matrices, and it underlies the community-detection (§4.5) and covariance-estimation (§4.7) applications later in the same chapter, neither of which is part of this mission.

Formalizing it. The theorem is a classical, fully proved result; nothing about its truth is open. What this mission contributes is a machine-checked formal statement — together with the two pieces of chapter infrastructure its own textbook proof names by number (Corollary 4.2.13, Exercise 4.4.3(a)) — and a third, self-contained application of the same covering-number machinery (Theorem 4.3.5) that exercises the shared IsEpsNet/coveringNumber definitions on a different metric space (the Hamming cube), independently of the Euclidean case. Mathlib and the Prove2Me platform currently have no ε-net, covering-number, or packing-number infrastructure (checked by q=random matrix, q=operator norm, q=covering number, q=net on the platform, and by filename search in Mathlib): this mission is the first to introduce it, restated inside its own namespace since it is not otherwise available to build on.

Difficulty

The obvious first approach is to bound ∥A∥=max⁡x∈Sn−1∥Ax∥2\|A\| = \max_{x \in S^{n-1}} \|Ax\|_2∥A∥=maxx∈Sn−1​∥Ax∥2​ directly by union-bounding a concentration inequality over the sphere Sn−1S^{n-1}Sn−1. This fails outright: Sn−1S^{n-1}Sn−1 is infinite (indeed uncountable) for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, so no union bound over its points can converge — the naive approach gives ∞⋅(tail probability)\infty \cdot (\text{tail probability})∞⋅(tail probability). The ε-net argument is the fix, but it is not just "discretize and hope": the reduction from the sphere to a finite net (quadratic_form_on_net, Exercise 4.4.3(a)) loses a multiplicative factor 1/(1−2ε)1/(1-2\varepsilon)1/(1−2ε) that must be tracked, and the net's cardinality (covering_numbers_of_euclidean_ball_and_sphere, Corollary 4.2.13) is exponential in the dimension (9n9^n9n at ε=1/4\varepsilon = 1/4ε=1/4) — so the per-point tail probability from Hoeffding-type concentration must itself decay fast enough (quadratically in the exponent) to survive multiplying by 9m+n9^{m+n}9m+n many points. Getting the union bound to close requires choosing the threshold uuu in the tail bound proportionally to m+n+t\sqrt m + \sqrt n + tm​+n​+t, not to ttt alone — the m+n\sqrt m + \sqrt nm​+n​ term is exactly what pays for the net's exponential size.

Formalization scope

AAA is represented as Ω → Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ; its entries A ω i j are the individual real random variables. Independence of the mnmnmn entries is iIndepFun over the index type Fin m × Fin n; mean-zero is the vanishing of each entry's Bochner integral. The operator norm is the norm of the associated continuous linear map between EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) (matrixOpNorm, every linear map between finite-dimensional normed spaces being automatically continuous), matching the book's maxₓ∈Sⁿ⁻¹ ‖Ax‖₂ exactly. The sub-gaussian norm KKK reuses this series' own published definition, HighDimProb.Concentration.subgaussianNorm, rather than a re-derivation. Covering numbers (coveringNumber) are restricted to finite (Finset) ε-nets, the only kind this chapter uses; this is a deliberate restriction, not a general-purpose covering-number formalization, and is disclosed as such. A hard-coded numeral for CCC, or an unquantified "with high probability" in place of the explicit failure probability 2exp⁡(−t2)2\exp(-t^2)2exp(−t2), would each trivialize the statement and is ruled out: CCC is existentially bound ahead of every other quantifier, and t>0t > 0t>0 is a free parameter with its own explicit bound, exactly as the book states it.

Definitions reusable beyond this mission: IsEpsNet and coveringNumber are stated for a general PseudoMetricSpace and apply unchanged to any later chapter's covering-number needs (e.g. Chapter 8's VC-dimension covering numbers), though per this series' rule that drafts cannot import drafts, a later chunk would restate rather than import them until this mission is published. matrixOpNorm is likewise chapter-agnostic. Contributions completing the sorry proofs of any of the four theorem items are welcome and independent of one another; the covering number and net-reduction items (covering_numbers_of_euclidean_ball_and_sphere, quadratic_form_on_net) are the standard prerequisites for the goal's own volumetric/ε-net proof.

Selected references

  • Vershynin, R. High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science. Cambridge University Press, 2018. DOI 10.1017/9781108231596
  • Bai, Z. D., Yin, Y. Q. "Necessary and sufficient conditions for almost sure convergence of the largest eigenvalue of a Wigner matrix." Annals of Probability 16 (1988), 1729–1741.
  • Marchenko, V. A., Pastur, L. A. "Distribution of eigenvalues for some sets of random matrices." Mathematics of the USSR-Sbornik 1 (1967), 457–483.
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to Stochastic Programming I: Convexity, Attainment and Optimality of the Two-Stage Recourse ProblemTextbook

Motivation

Two-stage stochastic linear programming with recourse models a decision made before uncertainty resolves (the first-stage variables xxx) followed by a corrective decision made after (the second-stage, or recourse, variables yyy). Solving such a program means minimizing cTx+Q(x)c^{\mathsf T}x + Q(x)cTx+Q(x), where Q(x)Q(x)Q(x) is the expected cost of the best recourse action given xxx -- an object defined only implicitly, as the value of an embedded linear program that must be solved (or bounded) for every realization of the uncertain data. Before any algorithm for this problem can be justified -- the L-shaped method, stochastic decomposition, scenario decomposition, all developed in later chapters of Birge & Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming (Springer, 2011) -- one needs to know that QQQ is well-behaved enough to optimize over at all: that the feasible region is closed and convex, that QQQ itself is a finite, Lipschitz, convex function on it, that an optimal solution is actually attained rather than only approached in the limit, and finally what an optimality condition for the resulting nonsmooth convex program even looks like. This mission formalizes exactly that foundational layer, Chapter 3, Section 3.1 of the book.

Setting

Fix natural numbers n1,n2,m1,m2n_1, n_2, m_1, m_2n1​,n2​,m1​,m2​ and a finite scenario count KKK. A two-stage recourse instance consists of first-stage data A∈Rm1×n1A \in \mathbb{R}^{m_1 \times n_1}A∈Rm1​×n1​, b∈Rm1b \in \mathbb{R}^{m_1}b∈Rm1​, c∈Rn1c \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1}c∈Rn1​, a fixed recourse matrix W∈Rm2×n2W \in \mathbb{R}^{m_2 \times n_2}W∈Rm2​×n2​, and, for each scenario k=1,…,Kk = 1,\dots,Kk=1,…,K, a cost vector qk∈Rn2q_k \in \mathbb{R}^{n_2}qk​∈Rn2​, a right-hand side hk∈Rm2h_k \in \mathbb{R}^{m_2}hk​∈Rm2​, a technology matrix Tk∈Rm2×n1T_k \in \mathbb{R}^{m_2 \times n_1}Tk​∈Rm2​×n1​, and a probability pk≥0p_k \ge 0pk​≥0 with ∑kpk=1\sum_k p_k = 1∑k​pk​=1 (Eq. (1.1)). The first-stage feasible region is K1={x∣Ax=b, x≥0}K_1 = \{x \mid Ax = b,\ x \ge 0\}K1​={x∣Ax=b, x≥0}.

For a fixed xxx and scenario kkk, the second-stage value is

Q(x,ξk)=min⁡y{qkTy∣Wy=hk−Tkx, y≥0}Q(x,\xi_k) = \min_{y}\{q_k^{\mathsf T}y \mid Wy = h_k - T_k x,\ y \ge 0\}Q(x,ξk​)=ymin​{qkT​y∣Wy=hk​−Tk​x, y≥0}

(Eq. (1.6)), taken as an extended real: +∞+\infty+∞ if no feasible yyy exists, −∞-\infty−∞ if the inner program is unbounded below. The expected recourse value is Q(x)=∑kpk Q(x,ξk)Q(x) = \sum_k p_k\, Q(x,\xi_k)Q(x)=∑k​pk​Q(x,ξk​) (Eq. (1.3)), combined so that +∞+(−∞)=+∞+\infty + (-\infty) = +\infty+∞+(−∞)=+∞ -- the book's own convention (p. 109): infeasibility in one scenario is treated as fatal even if another scenario is unboundedly favorable. The second-stage feasibility set is K2={x∣Q(x)<∞}K_2 = \{x \mid Q(x) < \infty\}K2​={x∣Q(x)<∞}, and the deterministic-equivalent objective is z(x)=cTx+Q(x)z(x) = c^{\mathsf T}x + Q(x)z(x)=cTx+Q(x) (Eq. (1.2)). For xxx with Q(x)Q(x)Q(x) finite, the subdifferential ∂Q(x)\partial Q(x)∂Q(x) is the set of η\etaη satisfying Q(x)+ηT(y−x)≤Q(y)Q(x) + \eta^{\mathsf T}(y-x) \le Q(y)Q(x)+ηT(y−x)≤Q(y) for every yyy (p. 115).

A simple-recourse instance is the special case W=[I,−I]W = [I,-I]W=[I,−I]: the recourse cost splits as q=(q+,q−)q = (q^+,q^-)q=(q+,q−), and Q(x)Q(x)Q(x) decomposes componentwise via the closed form of Eq. (1.9)-(1.10) using the (left- and right-limit) distribution functions Fi−,Fi+F_i^-, F_i^+Fi−​,Fi+​ of each hih_ihi​.

Formalization targets

Goal -- Chapter 3, Theorem 9 (p. 116)

x∗∈K1 is optimal in (1.2)  ⟺  ∃ λ∗∈Rm1, μ∗∈R≥0n1, (μ∗)Tx∗=0,  s.t. −c+ATλ∗+μ∗∈∂Q(x∗),x^* \in K_1 \text{ is optimal in (1.2)} \iff \exists\, \lambda^* \in \mathbb{R}^{m_1},\ \mu^* \in \mathbb{R}^{n_1}_{\ge 0},\ (\mu^*)^{\mathsf T}x^* = 0,\ \text{ s.t. } -c + A^{\mathsf T}\lambda^* + \mu^* \in \partial Q(x^*),x∗∈K1​ is optimal in (1.2)⟺∃λ∗∈Rm1​, μ∗∈R≥0n1​​, (μ∗)Tx∗=0,  s.t. −c+ATλ∗+μ∗∈∂Q(x∗),

given that (1.2) has a finite optimal value. This is the KKT-style necessary and sufficient optimality condition for the two-stage recourse LP, and the weakest of the mission's targets in the sense that everything else supports it: convexity and finiteness of QQQ (Theorem 6) are what make the left-to-right implication meaningful, closedness/convexity of K2K_2K2​ (Theorem 5) makes the feasible region well-posed, and attainment (Theorem 8) is what makes "x∗x^*x∗ is optimal" a statement about a point that exists rather than an infimum that may not be reached.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 5(a) (p. 111): K2K_2K2​ is closed and convex.
  • Theorem 6(a) (p. 112): QQQ is finite on K2K_2K2​, and Lipschitzian and convex there.
  • Theorem 8 (p. 115): under boundedness of K1∩K2K_1 \cap K_2K1​∩K2​ or eventual linearity of QQQ along recession directions, a finite optimal value is attained.
  • Corollary 10 (p. 116): Theorem 9 specialized to simple recourse, with ∂Q(x∗)\partial Q(x^*)∂Q(x∗) replaced by its explicit componentwise description.

Significance

Theorem 9 is the hinge on which the rest of the book's algorithmic chapters turn. The L-shaped method (Chapter 5) is a cutting-plane scheme whose cuts are literally elements of ∂Q(x)\partial Q(x)∂Q(x); stochastic decomposition and sampling-based methods use the same subdifferential structure with estimated cuts; the differentiable specialization (Eq. (1.14), c+∇Q(x∗)=ATλ∗+μ∗c + \nabla Q(x^*) = A^{\mathsf T}\lambda^* + \mu^*c+∇Q(x∗)=ATλ∗+μ∗) underlies nonlinear-programming approaches to the smooth case. None of this is meaningful without first knowing QQQ is convex, finite where it needs to be, and that a minimizer exists to characterize. Formalizing this mission's four milestones from the actual definition of QQQ as an embedded linear program's value -- rather than assuming these properties -- is exactly the content the book itself proves (or, for Theorem 6, explicitly cites to Wets [1972] and Kall [1976] rather than proving); this mission asks for genuine Lean proofs of Theorems 5, 8, 9 and Corollary 10 from the LP structure of QQQ, and records Theorem 6 as a stated (not re-derived) input, matching the book's own presentation.

Difficulty

The obvious shortcut is to treat QQQ as an opaque convex function and apply a textbook convex-KKT theorem off the shelf. This fails to capture what Theorem 9 actually is: a statement about the specific function Q(x)=∑kpkmin⁡y{qkTy∣Wy=hk−Tkx, y≥0}Q(x) = \sum_k p_k \min_y\{q_k^{\mathsf T}y \mid Wy = h_k - T_k x,\ y \ge 0\}Q(x)=∑k​pk​miny​{qkT​y∣Wy=hk​−Tk​x, y≥0}, built from finitely many parametric linear programs, each of which can be infeasible (Q(x,ξk)=+∞Q(x,\xi_k) = +\inftyQ(x,ξk​)=+∞) or unbounded (Q(x,ξk)=−∞Q(x,\xi_k) = -\inftyQ(x,ξk​)=−∞) depending on xxx. Convexity of QQQ must come from convexity of the value function of a parametric LP in its right-hand side (the book's Theorem 2 argument: a convex combination of optimal solutions at two right-hand sides is feasible, hence suboptimal, at the combined right-hand side) -- not from an assumed hypothesis. Handling ±∞\pm\infty±∞ correctly is a second, easy-to-miss source of error: the book fixes an explicit, non-default convention (+∞+\infty+∞ dominates −∞-\infty−∞) for combining per-scenario values, the opposite of the convention Mathlib's own extended-real arithmetic uses, so any formalization that reaches for EReal's built-in addition to aggregate QQQ silently states a different theorem. Theorem 8's attainment condition is a genuine existence result, not an automatic consequence of convexity: continuity alone does not give attainment on an unbounded feasible region, and the book's own counterexample (Eq. (1.11), a negative-exponential tail with infimum 000 attained by no finite xxx) shows the boundedness/recession hypotheses are load-bearing.

Formalization scope

The scenario set is modeled as Fin K, a finite discrete random variable, matching Section 3.1b's development; under this model "ξ\xiξ has finite second moments" (the standing hypothesis of Theorems 4-11 in the general, possibly-continuous case) holds automatically and so does not appear as a separate hypothesis anywhere in this mission. Q(x,\xi_k) is defined as an EReal via sInf of the second-stage LP's feasible objective values -- sInf of the empty set is ⊤, and of a set unbounded below is ⊥ -- and is genuinely derived from that inner minimization rather than assumed convex; this rules out the chapter's trivializing formalization, which the paper-level triage explicitly warns against: taking Q(x) as an opaque convex-function hypothesis instead of deriving its properties from the inner LP's structure. Aggregating the KKK per-scenario values into Q(x)Q(x)Q(x) uses a bespoke bookAdd operation implementing the book's stated convention +∞+(−∞)=+∞+\infty+(-\infty)=+\infty+∞+(−∞)=+∞, since Mathlib's EReal addition is defined with the opposite convention (⊥+⊤=⊤+⊥=⊥\bot+\top=\top+\bot=\bot⊥+⊤=⊤+⊥=⊥). ∂Q(x)\partial Q(x)∂Q(x) is the ordinary subgradient-inequality set for this extended-real-valued function.

Theorem 8's condition (b) is stated with the book's own quantifier structure: the threshold λˉ\bar\lambdaλˉ and the recession value depend on the point xxx and direction vvv exactly as written, with no strengthening. Theorem 6(a)'s Lipschitz bound is stated, not derived -- the book itself cites it to Wets [1972] and Kall [1976] without proof -- so a faithful Lean proof of that milestone is expected to remain out of scope for this mission. Corollary 10 similarly takes the closed form of ∂Qi(x)\partial Q_i(x)∂Qi​(x) from Eq. (1.10) as a hypothesis on an abstract QQQ, matching how the book itself uses (1.10) as an already-established fact rather than re-deriving it from the second-stage LP in the corollary's own proof. Theorem 11's subdifferential-decomposition result (∂Q(x)=Eω[∂Q(x,ξ(ω))]+N(K2,x)\partial Q(x) = E_\omega[\partial Q(x,\xi(\omega))] + N(K_2,x)∂Q(x)=Eω​[∂Q(x,ξ(ω))]+N(K2​,x)) is deliberately left out of this mission's scope: it is not needed by Theorem 9's own proof, and its normal-cone term would require relatively-complete-recourse machinery this mission does not otherwise need. No prior-art match was found on the platform: VectorSpaceOpt.fenchel_duality and the Luenberger-derived VectorSpaceOpt.generalized_kuhn_tucker / kkt_complementary_slackness family use a differentiable (Gateaux-derivative) or conjugate-function KKT model over general normed spaces, not this chapter's finite-dimensional, possibly-nondifferentiable subgradient formulation over the specific polyhedral set K1K_1K1​, so none is a faithful match and all items here are original drafts.

Selected references

  • J.R. Birge and F. Louveaux, Introduction to Stochastic Programming, 2nd ed., Springer Series in Operations Research and Financial Engineering, Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-0237-4
  • R.J-B. Wets, "Programming Under Uncertainty: The Equivalent Convex Program," SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 14 (1966), 89-105 (Lipschitz continuity of the recourse function, cited by the book as Wets [1972] for the closely related result used in Theorem 6). https://doi.org/10.1137/0114008
  • D.P. Walkup and R.J-B. Wets, "Stochastic Programs with Recourse," SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 15 (1967), 1299-1314 (finiteness of the recourse function and coincidence of the possibility and expectation feasibility sets, underlying Proposition 3 and Theorem 4). https://doi.org/10.1137/0115113
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Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Markov Chains and Mixing Times XII: Continuous Time and Countable State SpacesTextbook

Motivation

The whole series so far lived in discrete time on finite state spaces. Chapters 20–21 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times (AMS, 2009) lift both restrictions. Running the jumps of a chain at the arrivals of a rate-one Poisson clock produces the continuous-time chain, whose transition semigroup — the heat kernel — converges to stationarity for every irreducible chain, with no aperiodicity hypothesis: continuous time washes out periodicity. On countable state spaces, existence of a stationary distribution is no longer automatic, and the trichotomy of transience, null recurrence, and positive recurrence replaces it; the convergence theorem survives exactly on the positive-recurrent class. The chapter's crown jewel — and this mission's goal — is Pólya's theorem: simple random walk on the lattice Zd\mathbb Z^dZd is recurrent in dimensions one and two and transient in dimension three and higher. "A drunk man will find his way home, but a drunk bird may get lost forever."

Setting

Continuous time (Ch. 20). For a finite chain PPP, the heat kernel at time t≥0t\ge0t≥0 is defined by Poissonization,

Ht(x,y)=∑k=0∞e−ttkk! Pk(x,y),H_t(x,y)=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}e^{-t}\frac{t^k}{k!}\,P^k(x,y),Ht​(x,y)=k=0∑∞​e−tk!tk​Pk(x,y),

the law at time ttt of a walk taking PPP-steps at Poisson arrival times (=et(P−I)=e^{t(P-I)}=et(P−I) as a matrix exponential). With ∥μ−ν∥TV=max⁡A∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣\|\mu-\nu\|_{TV}=\max_A|\mu(A)-\nu(A)|∥μ−ν∥TV​=maxA​∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣, the continuous distance and mixing time are dcont(t)=max⁡x∥Ht(x,⋅)−π∥TVd^{\mathrm{cont}}(t)=\max_x\|H_t(x,\cdot)-\pi\|_{TV}dcont(t)=maxx​∥Ht​(x,⋅)−π∥TV​ and tmixcont(ε)=inf⁡{t≥0:dcont(t)≤ε}t^{\mathrm{cont}}_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)=\inf\{t\ge0:d^{\mathrm{cont}}(t)\le\varepsilon\}tmixcont​(ε)=inf{t≥0:dcont(t)≤ε}. The lazy version of a discrete chain is 12(I+P)\tfrac12(I+P)21​(I+P); from Mission VII, the spectral gap γ\gammaγ is 1−λ21-\lambda_21−λ2​ with λ2\lambda_2λ2​ the largest eigenvalue ≠1\ne1=1. The product chain on a product of nnn coordinate spaces picks a uniform coordinate and updates it by that coordinate's chain.

Countable state spaces (Ch. 21). A chain on a countable state space VVV is a function PPP with nonnegative entries and rows summing to one (as convergent series); ttt-step probabilities Pt(x,y)P^t(x,y)Pt(x,y) are defined recursively, and trajectory probabilities are countable sums of path weights. The first return time to xxx is τx+=min⁡{t≥1:Xt=x}\tau_x^+=\min\{t\ge1:X_t=x\}τx+​=min{t≥1:Xt​=x}; a state is recurrent when Px{τx+<∞}=1\mathbb P_x\{\tau_x^+<\infty\}=1Px​{τx+​<∞}=1 (tails tend to zero), positive recurrent when moreover Ex(τx+)<∞\mathbb E_x(\tau_x^+)<\inftyEx​(τx+​)<∞ (tails summable), and null recurrent when recurrent but not positive recurrent. A stationary distribution is a nonnegative π\piπ summing to one with πP=π\pi P=\piπP=π (as convergent series). Simple random walk on Zd\mathbb Z^dZd steps from xxx to one of its 2d2d2d nearest neighbours uniformly at random.

Formalization targets

Goal

Pólya's theorem (§21.2, Examples 21.8–21.9), the capstone of Chapters 20–21:

  1. for d≤2d\le2d≤2, simple random walk on Zd\mathbb Z^dZd is recurrent — it returns to its starting point with probability one;
  2. for d≥3d\ge3d≥3, it is transient — with positive probability it never returns.

Milestones

  • Theorem 20.1 — for any irreducible finite chain, aperiodic or not, the heat kernel converges: dcont(t)→0d^{\mathrm{cont}}(t)\to0dcont(t)→0 as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.
  • Theorem 20.3 — the two-way comparison between lazy discrete and continuous mixing: eventual ε\varepsilonε-mixing of the lazy chain at time kkk gives 2ε2\varepsilon2ε-mixing of the heat kernel at time kkk, and ε\varepsilonε-mixing of the heat kernel at time mmm gives 2ε2\varepsilon2ε-mixing of the lazy chain at time 4m4m4m.
  • Theorem 20.6 — the spectral bound for reversible chains: ∣Ht(x,y)−π(y)∣≤π(y)/π(x)  e−γt\bigl|H_t(x,y)-\pi(y)\bigr|\le\sqrt{\pi(y)/\pi(x)}\;e^{-\gamma t}​Ht​(x,y)−π(y)​≤π(y)/π(x)​e−γt.
  • Theorem 20.7 — mixing of continuous-time product chains: with all coordinate gaps ≥γ\ge\gamma≥γ and coordinate stationary masses bounded below, tmixcont(ε)≤(2γ)−1nlog⁡n+γ−1nlog⁡(1/(c0ε))t^{\mathrm{cont}}_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\le(2\gamma)^{-1}n\log n+\gamma^{-1}n\log(1/(c_0\varepsilon))tmixcont​(ε)≤(2γ)−1nlogn+γ−1nlog(1/(c0​ε)), with a matching n2γlog⁡n\tfrac{n}{2\gamma}\log n2γn​logn lower bound when the gaps are equal — the nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn product-chain phenomenon.
  • Proposition 21.3 — the recurrence dichotomy on countable spaces: a state is recurrent exactly when its Green's function ∑tPt(x,x)\sum_tP^t(x,x)∑t​Pt(x,x) diverges, and for an irreducible chain one recurrent state makes all states recurrent.
  • Theorem 21.12 — an irreducible countable chain is positive recurrent if and only if it has a stationary distribution.
  • Lemma 21.13 (Kac) — for an irreducible chain with stationary distribution π\piπ and any nonempty set SSS: ∑x∈Sπ(x) Ex(τS+)=1\sum_{x\in S}\pi(x)\,\mathbb E_x(\tau_S^+)=1∑x∈S​π(x)Ex​(τS+​)=1; in particular Ex(τx+)=1/π(x)\mathbb E_x(\tau_x^+)=1/\pi(x)Ex​(τx+​)=1/π(x).
  • Theorem 21.14 — the convergence theorem on countable spaces: an irreducible, aperiodic, positive recurrent chain has a unique stationary distribution π\piπ, and ∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV→0\|P^t(x,\cdot)-\pi\|_{TV}\to0∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV​→0 from every start.
  • Theorem 21.17 — in the null recurrent case, Pt(x,y)→0P^t(x,y)\to0Pt(x,y)→0 for all pairs of states: no stationary profile is approached.

Significance

The results. Theorem 20.1 explains why laziness and aperiodicity pervade the discrete theory — periodicity is an artifact of the discrete clock. The product-chain theorem 20.7 is the cleanest instance of the nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn paradigm (independent coordinates mix in relaxation time ×log⁡(number of coordinates)\times\log(\text{number of coordinates})×log(number of coordinates)) and the template for the hypercube cutoff of Mission XI. Chapter 21's trichotomy is the backbone of applied Markov chain theory — queueing, branching, renewal — and Kac's lemma with the convergence theorem 21.14 is the standard equipment of any probability course. Pólya's theorem is one of the most celebrated results of twentieth-century probability, the birth of the random-walk-in-dimension-ddd paradigm.

Formalizing them. Mathlib has no continuous-time Markov chains, no Poissonization, and no recurrence/transience theory (its PMF random walks stop far short). The countable-state layer built here — summable stationary equations, tail-sum return times, the recurrence dichotomy — is the missing infrastructure for formalized applied probability; Pólya's theorem is a famous target in its own right, and the d≥3d\ge3d≥3 half has never been formalized in any assistant to our knowledge.

Difficulty

The heat kernel is an infinite series of matrices: convergence (dominated by the Poisson weights), the semigroup property, and the interchange of the series with matrix products and limits must all be established by hand over tsum. Theorem 20.1 avoids aperiodicity by the number-theoretic fact that the Poisson distribution smears over residue classes — formally, the continuous chain is automatically aperiodic because Ht(x,x)>0H_t(x,x)>0Ht​(x,x)>0 for t>0t>0t>0. The product-chain bounds need the ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 machinery of Mission VII applied coordinatewise and a careful union bound; the lower bound is a Gaussian-free second-moment argument. On the countable side, everything is series bookkeeping in the absence of Fintype: the recurrence dichotomy is a generating-function (renewal) identity G(x,x)=1/Px{τx+=∞}G(x,x)=1/\mathbb P_x\{\tau_x^+=\infty\}G(x,x)=1/Px​{τx+​=∞} handled through partial sums; Kac's lemma is a mass-transport double-count over trajectories; and Theorem 21.14 needs an aperiodicity-based coupling on a countable product space, the technical summit of the mission. Pólya's theorem itself combines a local central-limit-type estimate for the return probabilities (P2t(0,0)≍t−d/2P^{2t}(0,0)\asymp t^{-d/2}P2t(0,0)≍t−d/2, obtained by Stirling in d=1,2d=1,2d=1,2 and by a comparison argument in higher dimension) with the dichotomy of Proposition 21.3.

Formalization scope

Chapter 20 lives on finite state spaces: the heat kernel is a tsum over kkk of Poisson weights times matrix powers (summability is provable, not assumed), continuous distance is a supremum over states, and the continuous mixing time is an sInf over nonnegative reals (junk 000 if the set were empty — excluded under the theorems' hypotheses). Discrete-vs-continuous comparison (Theorem 20.3) is stated with eventual thresholds (∃K,∀k≥K\exists K,\forall k\ge K∃K,∀k≥K), matching the book's asymptotic phrasing. Chapter 21 lives on a Countable type: stochasticity and stationarity are HasSum statements, ttt-step powers are defined recursively with tsum convolutions, return-time tails are countable sums of path weights over finite horizons, and recurrence/positive recurrence are the tail-limit and tail-summability conditions above — measure theory never enters. Pólya's theorem is stated for the origin of Zd\mathbb Z^dZd with the walk defined by nearest-neighbour steps; the d≤2d\le2d≤2 and d≥3d\ge3d≥3 halves are separate conjuncts of one statement.

Selected references

  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009. https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf
  • G. Pólya, Über eine Aufgabe der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung betreffend die Irrfahrt im Straßennetz, Math. Ann. 84 (1921). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01458701
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. I, 3rd ed., Wiley, 1968.
  • D. Aldous, J. A. Fill, Reversible Markov Chains and Random Walks on Graphs, 2002. https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/RWG/book.html
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Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Markov Chains and Mixing Times VII: Eigenvalues and the Cheeger InequalityTextbook

Motivation

How fast does a Markov chain forget its starting point? For a reversible chain the complete answer is coded in the eigenvalues of its transition matrix: the largest eigenvalue is always 111, and the size of the gap between 111 and the rest of the spectrum is the chain's fundamental time constant — a large gap means fast mixing, a small gap means slow mixing. Chapters 12–13 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times (AMS, 2009) develop this spectral theory and culminate in the discrete Cheeger inequality of Jerrum–Sinclair and Lawler–Sokal, which says that the spectral gap γ\gammaγ (an analytic quantity, defined below) and the bottleneck constant Φ⋆\Phi_\starΦ⋆​ (a geometric quantity from Mission IV, also recalled below) control each other:

Φ⋆22  ≤  γ  ≤  2 Φ⋆.\frac{\Phi_\star^2}{2}\;\le\;\gamma\;\le\;2\,\Phi_\star.2Φ⋆2​​≤γ≤2Φ⋆​.

A chain mixes rapidly exactly when its state space has no bottleneck. This inequality is the backbone of the Markov-chain approach to approximate counting and of spectral graph theory at large; alongside it the chapters provide Wilson's method — the sharpest general technique for mixing-time lower bounds — and the comparison machinery that transfers spectral estimates between chains.

Setting

All chains live on a finite state space VVV. A chain with transition matrix PPP and stationary distribution π\piπ is reversible when the detailed balance equations π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x)\pi(x)P(x,y)=\pi(y)P(y,x)π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x) hold; reversibility is the standing assumption of both chapters. The yardsticks of the series are the total variation distance ∥μ−ν∥TV=max⁡A⊆V∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣\|\mu-\nu\|_{TV}=\max_{A\subseteq V}|\mu(A)-\nu(A)|∥μ−ν∥TV​=maxA⊆V​∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣, the worst-case distance to stationarity d(t)=max⁡x∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TVd(t)=\max_x\|P^t(x,\cdot)-\pi\|_{TV}d(t)=maxx​∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV​, and the mixing time tmix(ε)=min⁡{t:d(t)≤ε}t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)=\min\{t: d(t)\le\varepsilon\}tmix​(ε)=min{t:d(t)≤ε}, with tmix=tmix(1/4)t_{\mathrm{mix}}=t_{\mathrm{mix}}(1/4)tmix​=tmix​(1/4); we write πmin⁡=min⁡xπ(x)\pi_{\min}=\min_x\pi(x)πmin​=minx​π(x).

The spectral vocabulary: an eigenfunction of PPP is a nonzero f:V→Rf:V\to\mathbb Rf:V→R with Pf=λfPf=\lambda fPf=λf, where (Pf)(x)=∑yP(x,y)f(y)(Pf)(x)=\sum_yP(x,y)f(y)(Pf)(x)=∑y​P(x,y)f(y); the number λ\lambdaλ is then an eigenvalue. Out of the spectrum one forms

  • λ2\lambda_2λ2​, the largest eigenvalue different from 111, and the spectral gap γ=1−λ2\gamma=1-\lambda_2γ=1−λ2​;
  • λ⋆\lambda_\starλ⋆​, the largest absolute value of an eigenvalue different from 111, the absolute gap γ⋆=1−λ⋆\gamma_\star=1-\lambda_\starγ⋆​=1−λ⋆​, and the relaxation time trel=1/γ⋆t_{\mathrm{rel}}=1/\gamma_\startrel​=1/γ⋆​.

Functions on VVV carry the weighted inner product ⟨f,g⟩π=∑xf(x)g(x)π(x)\langle f,g\rangle_\pi=\sum_xf(x)g(x)\pi(x)⟨f,g⟩π​=∑x​f(x)g(x)π(x) — the geometry, denoted ℓ2(π)\ell^2(\pi)ℓ2(π), in which a reversible PPP is self-adjoint — and the Dirichlet form

E(f)=12∑x,y[f(x)−f(y)]2 π(x)P(x,y),\mathcal E(f)=\tfrac12\sum_{x,y}\bigl[f(x)-f(y)\bigr]^2\,\pi(x)P(x,y),E(f)=21​x,y∑​[f(x)−f(y)]2π(x)P(x,y),

the average squared variation of fff along the chain's transitions. Finally, from Mission IV: the bottleneck ratio of a set SSS of states is Φ(S)=∑x∈S, y∉Sπ(x)P(x,y) / π(S)\Phi(S)=\sum_{x\in S,\,y\notin S}\pi(x)P(x,y)\,/\,\pi(S)Φ(S)=∑x∈S,y∈/S​π(x)P(x,y)/π(S), the conditional probability at stationarity of escaping SSS in one step, and the bottleneck constant is Φ⋆=min⁡{Φ(S):∅≠S, π(S)≤12}\Phi_\star=\min\{\Phi(S):\varnothing\ne S,\ \pi(S)\le\tfrac12\}Φ⋆​=min{Φ(S):∅=S, π(S)≤21​}.

Formalization targets

Goal

Theorem 13.14, the discrete Cheeger inequality: for a reversible irreducible chain,

Φ⋆22  ≤  γ  ≤  2 Φ⋆.\frac{\Phi_\star^2}{2}\;\le\;\gamma\;\le\;2\,\Phi_\star.2Φ⋆2​​≤γ≤2Φ⋆​.

Milestones

  • Lemma 12.1 — every eigenvalue satisfies ∣λ∣≤1|\lambda|\le1∣λ∣≤1; for an irreducible chain the eigenfunctions of the eigenvalue 111 are the constant functions; an irreducible aperiodic chain does not have −1-1−1 as an eigenvalue.
  • Lemma 12.2 — the spectral representation: a reversible chain admits eigenfunctions f1,…,f∣V∣f_1,\dots,f_{|V|}f1​,…,f∣V∣​, orthonormal with respect to ⟨⋅,⋅⟩π\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle_\pi⟨⋅,⋅⟩π​, with eigenvalues λj\lambda_jλj​, such that Pt(x,y)/π(y)=∑jfj(x)fj(y)λjtP^t(x,y)/\pi(y)=\sum_jf_j(x)f_j(y)\lambda_j^tPt(x,y)/π(y)=∑j​fj​(x)fj​(y)λjt​ for all t,x,yt,x,yt,x,y.
  • Theorem 12.3 — mixing is at most relaxation times a log factor: tmix(ε)≤log⁡(1/(ε πmin⁡)) trel+1t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\le\log\bigl(1/(\varepsilon\,\pi_{\min})\bigr)\,t_{\mathrm{rel}}+1tmix​(ε)≤log(1/(επmin​))trel​+1.
  • Theorem 12.4 — mixing is at least the relaxation time: tmix(ε)≥(trel−1)log⁡(1/(2ε))t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\ge(t_{\mathrm{rel}}-1)\log\bigl(1/(2\varepsilon)\bigr)tmix​(ε)≥(trel​−1)log(1/(2ε)).
  • §12.3.1 — the model computation: simple random walk on the nnn-cycle has the numbers cos⁡(2πj/n)\cos(2\pi j/n)cos(2πj/n), j=0,…,n−1j=0,\dots,n-1j=0,…,n−1, among its eigenvalues.
  • Theorem 13.1 — if every pair of states admits a coupling of the two one-step distributions that contracts some metric ρ\rhoρ on VVV by a factor θ\thetaθ in expectation, then λ⋆≤θ\lambda_\star\le\thetaλ⋆​≤θ.
  • Theorem 13.5, Wilson's method — an eigenfunction Φ\PhiΦ with eigenvalue λ∈(12,1)\lambda\in(\tfrac12,1)λ∈(21​,1) whose one-step increments have second moment at most RRR yields the explicit lower bound tmix(ε)≥[2log⁡(1/λ)]−1[log⁡((1−λ)Φ(x)2/(2R))+log⁡((1−ε)/ε)]t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\ge\bigl[2\log(1/\lambda)\bigr]^{-1}\bigl[\log\bigl((1-\lambda)\Phi(x)^2/(2R)\bigr)+\log\bigl((1-\varepsilon)/\varepsilon\bigr)\bigr]tmix​(ε)≥[2log(1/λ)]−1[log((1−λ)Φ(x)2/(2R))+log((1−ε)/ε)].
  • Lemmas 13.11–13.12 — the variational characterization: γ\gammaγ is the minimum of E(f)\mathcal E(f)E(f) over functions with mean zero (∑xf(x)π(x)=0\sum_xf(x)\pi(x)=0∑x​f(x)π(x)=0) and unit norm (⟨f,f⟩π=1\langle f,f\rangle_\pi=1⟨f,f⟩π​=1), and the minimum is attained.
  • Lemma 13.22 — the comparison method: if a second reversible chain P~\tilde PP~ on the same space, with stationary distribution π~\tilde\piπ~, Dirichlet form E~\tilde{\mathcal E}E~, and gap γ~\tilde\gammaγ~​, satisfies E~(f)≤B E(f)\tilde{\mathcal E}(f)\le B\,\mathcal E(f)E~(f)≤BE(f) for every fff, then γ~≤[max⁡xπ(x)/π~(x)]B γ\tilde\gamma\le\bigl[\max_x\pi(x)/\tilde\pi(x)\bigr]B\,\gammaγ~​≤[maxx​π(x)/π~(x)]Bγ.

Significance

The results. Theorems 12.3–12.4 sandwich the mixing time between trelt_{\mathrm{rel}}trel​ and trellog⁡(1/πmin⁡)t_{\mathrm{rel}}\log(1/\pi_{\min})trel​log(1/πmin​) — the fundamental equivalence of spectral and mixing estimates for reversible chains, prerequisite for the cutoff criterion of Mission XI. The Cheeger inequality converts isoperimetry into spectral bounds; it is the mathematical core of the Jerrum–Sinclair program of polynomial-time approximate counting, and its graph version underlies expander theory. Wilson's method produced the sharp lower bounds for adjacent transpositions and hypercube-type chains; the comparison lemma is the engine behind the shuffle bounds cited in Mission V (§16.1).

Formalizing them. Mathlib has the spectral theorem for symmetric matrices but nothing connecting spectra to Markov chains: no spectral gap, no relaxation time, no Dirichlet forms, no Cheeger inequality in any form. A formalized discrete Cheeger inequality would be a landmark reusable well outside this series (spectral graph theory, expanders); the eigenvalue and Rayleigh-quotient layer built here is what Missions IX (tree relaxation, block dynamics) and XI (cutoff criterion) consume.

Difficulty

Everything routes through one change of basis: conjugating PPP by the diagonal matrix with entries π(x)\sqrt{\pi(x)}π(x)​ produces a matrix that is symmetric precisely because the chain is reversible, so Mathlib's spectral theorem applies — but transporting the resulting eigenbasis back to ℓ2(π)\ell^2(\pi)ℓ2(π), keeping track of orthonormality with respect to the weighted inner product, is a genuine formal-linear-algebra project; nothing about it is deep, all of it is fussy. The definitions of λ2\lambda_2λ2​ and λ⋆\lambda_\starλ⋆​ as suprema over the set of non-unit eigenvalues (finite, and nonempty once ∣V∣≥2|V|\ge2∣V∣≥2) must be reconciled with the eigenbasis enumeration before any variational argument runs. The upper half of Cheeger is direct from the variational characterization — test it on the indicator function of a bottleneck set SSS, recentred to have mean zero; the lower half is the hard half: the standard proof takes an optimal fff, decomposes it over its level sets {f>c}\{f>c\}{f>c}, and applies Cauchy–Schwarz twice, and formalizing that level-set sweep is the main effort of the mission. Wilson's method needs a supermartingale-style iteration of the eigenfunction estimate; its constants are exact, so the inequalities cannot be rounded.

Formalization scope

Eigenvalues are defined by real eigenvectors (∃f≠0, Pf=λf\exists f\ne0,\ Pf=\lambda f∃f=0, Pf=λf); for reversible chains this captures the whole spectrum, and all statements assume reversibility wherever the book does. λ2\lambda_2λ2​ and λ⋆\lambda_\starλ⋆​ are suprema of explicit sets of reals; on a one-point space these sets are empty and the supremum takes a junk value, so the affected statements carry the explicit hypothesis ∣V∣≥2|V|\ge2∣V∣≥2, matching the book's implicit assumption of a non-degenerate chain. trel=(1−λ⋆)−1t_{\mathrm{rel}}=(1-\lambda_\star)^{-1}trel​=(1−λ⋆​)−1 with total inverse. Theorem 12.3 carries an explicit +1+1+1 absorbing the rounding of a real-valued bound to an integer time. The cycle eigenvalue statement exhibits eigenvalues (existence of eigenfunctions); completeness of that list is not asserted. The variational characterization asserts both the minimization identity and its attainment, so it can be used in either direction.

Welcome contributions: the symmetrization API (conjugation by diag(π)\mathrm{diag}(\sqrt{\pi})diag(π​)), Rayleigh-quotient lemmas, level-set (layer-cake) infrastructure — all reused by Missions IX and XI.

Selected references

  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009. https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf
  • M. Jerrum, A. Sinclair, Approximating the permanent, SIAM J. Comput. 18 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1137/0218077
  • G. F. Lawler, A. D. Sokal, Bounds on the L² spectrum for Markov chains and Markov processes, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 309 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1988-0930082-9
  • D. B. Wilson, Mixing times of lozenge tiling and card shuffling Markov chains, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1042765669
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🏆Completed
Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Markov Chains and Mixing Times IV: Lower Bounds on Mixing TimesTextbook

Motivation

Missions II–III produce upper bounds on mixing times. Whether such a bound is sharp is a different question: an O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) bound on a chain that actually mixes in nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn steps hides the truth. Chapter 7 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times (AMS, 2009) develops the standard toolkit of lower bounds: the counting and diameter bounds (a chain cannot spread faster than its transition graph allows), the bottleneck ratio (a chain cannot mix faster than it crosses its worst cut), and distinguishing statistics (a chain is far from stationarity as long as some statistic separates Pt(x,⋅)P^t(x,\cdot)Pt(x,⋅) from π\piπ by several standard deviations). The bottleneck bound — closely related to the conductance of the chain and, via Mission VII, to the Cheeger inequality — is the single most important obstruction result in the subject: it is how slow mixing (torpid mixing of Ising at low temperature, in Mission IX) is proved.

Setting

For a chain PPP with stationary distribution π\piπ, the edge measure is Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y)Q(x,y)=\pi(x)P(x,y)Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y), the bottleneck ratio of a set SSS of states is

Φ(S)=Q(S,Sc)π(S),Q(S,Sc)=∑x∈S, y∉Sπ(x)P(x,y),\Phi(S)=\frac{Q(S,S^{c})}{\pi(S)},\qquad Q(S,S^c)=\sum_{x\in S,\,y\notin S}\pi(x)P(x,y),Φ(S)=π(S)Q(S,Sc)​,Q(S,Sc)=x∈S,y∈/S∑​π(x)P(x,y),

and the bottleneck ratio of the chain is Φ⋆=min⁡{Φ(S):π(S)≤12, S≠∅}\Phi_\star=\min\{\Phi(S):\pi(S)\le\tfrac12,\ S\neq\varnothing\}Φ⋆​=min{Φ(S):π(S)≤21​, S=∅}. The maximal one-step out-degree is Δ=max⁡x∣{y:P(x,y)>0}∣\Delta=\max_x|\{y:P(x,y)>0\}|Δ=maxx​∣{y:P(x,y)>0}∣; the diameter is measured in the graph joining x≠yx\ne yx=y when P(x,y)+P(y,x)>0P(x,y)+P(y,x)>0P(x,y)+P(y,x)>0. For a statistic f:V→Rf:V\to\mathbb Rf:V→R and distribution μ\muμ, Eμ(f)\mathbb E_\mu(f)Eμ​(f) and Var⁡μ(f)\operatorname{Var}_\mu(f)Varμ​(f) are the finite-sum expectation and variance, and μf−1\mu f^{-1}μf−1 denotes the pushforward of μ\muμ under fff.

Formalization targets

Goal

tmix  ≥  14Φ⋆.t_{\mathrm{mix}}\;\ge\;\frac{1}{4\Phi_\star}.tmix​≥4Φ⋆​1​.

This is Theorem 7.3, the bottleneck-ratio lower bound, the chapter's central theorem.

Milestones

The counting bound tmix(ε)≥log⁡(∣V∣(1−ε))/log⁡Δt_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\ge\log\bigl(|V|(1-\varepsilon)\bigr)/\log\Deltatmix​(ε)≥log(∣V∣(1−ε))/logΔ for chains with uniform stationary distribution (§7.1.1, display (7.2)); the diameter bound: any two states satisfy dist(x0,y0)≤2 tmix(ε)\mathrm{dist}(x_0,y_0)\le 2\,t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)dist(x0​,y0​)≤2tmix​(ε) for ε<1/2\varepsilon<1/2ε<1/2 (§7.1.2, display (7.3)); Proposition 7.8 (a statistic separating means by rrr standard deviations forces ∥μ−ν∥TV≥1−4/(4+r2)\|\mu-\nu\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\ge1-4/(4+r^2)∥μ−ν∥TV​≥1−4/(4+r2)); Lemma 7.9 (projection under a statistic does not increase TV distance); Proposition 7.13 (the lazy hypercube walk satisfies d(12nlog⁡n−αn)≥1−8e1−2αd(\tfrac12 n\log n-\alpha n)\ge 1-8e^{1-2\alpha}d(21​nlogn−αn)≥1−8e1−2α); and Proposition 7.14 (the top-to-random shuffle needs nlog⁡n−O(n)n\log n-O(n)nlogn−O(n) shuffles, matching the upper bound of Mission III).

Significance

The results. Together with Mission III this pins the top-to-random shuffle at nlog⁡n±O(n)n\log n\pm O(n)nlogn±O(n) — the first sharp mixing result of the series, and the prototype of the cutoff phenomenon formalized in Mission XI. Proposition 7.13 similarly matches the hypercube upper bound and feeds the cutoff analysis. The bottleneck bound is used in Mission IX to prove exponentially slow mixing of the mean-field Ising model at low temperature, and its two-sided refinement is the Cheeger inequality of Mission VII.

Formalizing them. Mathlib has no notion of conductance/bottleneck ratio of a chain, no distinguishing-statistic method, and no mixing-time lower bound of any kind. The pushforward and variance infrastructure over finitely supported distributions is elementary but new, and reusable wherever second-moment methods appear (Wilson's method in Mission VII).

Difficulty

The bottleneck theorem's proof is short but exact: it hinges on the identity π(S)∥μSP−μS∥TV=Q(S,Sc)\pi(S)\|\mu_S P-\mu_S\|_{\mathrm{TV}}=Q(S,S^c)π(S)∥μS​P−μS​∥TV​=Q(S,Sc) for π\piπ conditioned on SSS, followed by a telescoping estimate of ∥μSPt−μS∥TV\|\mu_S P^t-\mu_S\|_{\mathrm{TV}}∥μS​Pt−μS​∥TV​; the formal cost is manipulating conditioned measures and one-sided TV sums (Remark 4.3 from Mission II). For Proposition 7.8, the second-moment argument runs through Chebyshev on both distributions plus optimization of a threshold — the constants 4/(4+r2)4/(4+r^2)4/(4+r2) are exact, not asymptotic, so the formal inequalities must be done carefully. Proposition 7.13 requires the binomial mean/variance computation for Hamming weight under both π\piπ and Pt(1,⋅)P^t(\mathbf 1,\cdot)Pt(1,⋅), including the negative-correlation bound for unrefreshed coordinates. The naive route to a lower bound — "the chain has not left a small set, so it is far from π\piπ" — is precisely the counting bound and is too weak for the sharp results; the statistics method is what closes the gap.

Formalization scope

Φ⋆\Phi_\starΦ⋆​ is an infimum over the subtype of nonempty sets with π(S)≤12\pi(S)\le\tfrac12π(S)≤21​; on a one-point space this subtype is empty and the infimum takes a junk value, making the goal trivially true there (the bound carries content only for ∣V∣≥2|V|\ge2∣V∣≥2, as in the book). The counting bound divides by log⁡Δ\log\DeltalogΔ with total division (Δ≤1\Delta\le1Δ≤1 gives a trivially true statement). The diameter bound is stated for arbitrary pairs of states through SimpleGraph.dist of the transition graph, which subsumes the book's diameter formulation. Propositions 7.13 and 7.14 are stated for all integer times t≤12nlog⁡n−αnt\le\frac12 n\log n-\alpha nt≤21​nlogn−αn (resp. t≤nlog⁡n−αnt\le n\log n-\alpha nt≤nlogn−αn), using monotonicity of ddd instead of evaluating at a real-valued time — this avoids floor artifacts while keeping the book's content. Proposition 7.14 quantifies "α\alphaα large, then nnn large" exactly as the book's iterated limit.

Welcome contributions: monotonicity of d(t)d(t)d(t) in ttt; conditioned-measure lemmas; variance API for distExp/distVar.

Selected references

  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009. https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf
  • M. Jerrum, A. Sinclair, Approximating the permanent, SIAM J. Comput. 18 (1989). https://doi.org/10.1137/0218077
  • D. Aldous, P. Diaconis, Shuffling cards and stopping times, Amer. Math. Monthly 93 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1986.11971821
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🏆Completed
Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Markov Chains and Mixing Times III: Coupling and Strong Stationary TimesTextbook

Motivation

The Convergence Theorem of Mission II says an irreducible aperiodic chain mixes geometrically, but with constants coming from a crude Doeblin decomposition — useless for actual chains, whose state spaces are exponentially large. Chapters 5–6 of Levin–Peres–Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times (AMS, 2009) develop the two classic probabilistic techniques that give useful upper bounds: coupling — run two copies of the chain jointly so that they meet quickly, and read a TV bound off the meeting time — and strong stationary times — random times at which the chain is exactly stationary, independent of the time. The flagship application is the top-to-random shuffle: repeatedly take the top card of a deck of nnn cards and reinsert it at a uniform position; the deck is well mixed after nlog⁡n+cnn\log n + cnnlogn+cn shuffles, with error at most e−ce^{-c}e−c.

Setting

A Markovian coupling of a chain PPP (with the stay-together convention (5.2)) is a chain QQQ on pairs whose coordinate marginals are both PPP and which moves diagonal states to diagonal states. The coupling time τcouple\tau_{\mathrm{couple}}τcouple​ is the hitting time of the diagonal; its tails are expressed with the trajectory calculus of Mission I.

A randomized stopping time is presented by its stopping rule: for each time ttt and trajectory prefix ω\omegaω, a number st(ω)∈[0,1]s_t(\omega)\in[0,1]st​(ω)∈[0,1], the conditional probability of stopping at ttt given the trajectory so far and no earlier stop. A strong stationary time for the chain started at xxx is an almost surely finite such τ\tauτ with

Px{τ=t, Xτ=y}=Px{τ=t} π(y),\mathbb P_x\{\tau=t,\ X_\tau=y\}=\mathbb P_x\{\tau=t\}\,\pi(y),Px​{τ=t, Xτ​=y}=Px​{τ=t}π(y),

i.e. Xτ∼πX_\tau\sim\piXτ​∼π independent of τ\tauτ. The separation distance is sx(t)=max⁡y [1−Pt(x,y)/π(y)]s_x(t)=\max_y\,[1-P^t(x,y)/\pi(y)]sx​(t)=maxy​[1−Pt(x,y)/π(y)].

The mission also fixes the concrete chains it bounds: the lazy walk on the discrete torus Znd\mathbb Z_n^dZnd​, the Metropolis chain on proper qqq-colorings of a graph, the Glauber dynamics of the hardcore model with fugacity λ\lambdaλ, and the top-to-random shuffle on decks of nnn cards (states are arrangements, i.e. permutations; position 000 is the top).

Formalization targets

Goal

Let d(t)=max⁡x∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TVd(t)= \max_x\|P^t (x,\cdot)−\pi\|_{TV}d(t)=maxx​∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV​,

d(⌈nlog⁡n+αn⌉)  ≤  e−α(α>0)d\bigl(\lceil n\log n+\alpha n\rceil\bigr)\;\le\;e^{-\alpha}\qquad(\alpha>0)d(⌈nlogn+αn⌉)≤e−α(α>0)

for the top-to-random shuffle on n≥2n\ge2n≥2 cards — display (6.16) of the book, the chapter's flagship bound, proved by combining the strong stationary time τtop\tau_{\mathrm{top}}τtop​ with the coupon collector tail of Mission I.

Milestones

Theorem 5.2 and Corollary 5.3 (the coupling bound: ∥Pt(x,⋅)−Pt(y,⋅)∥TV≤Px,y{τcouple>t}\|P^t(x,\cdot)-P^t(y,\cdot)\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\le\mathbb P_{x,y}\{\tau_{\mathrm{couple}}>t\}∥Pt(x,⋅)−Pt(y,⋅)∥TV​≤Px,y​{τcouple​>t}, hence d(t)≤max⁡x,yPx,y{τcouple>t}d(t)\le\max_{x,y}\mathbb P_{x,y}\{\tau_{\mathrm{couple}}>t\}d(t)≤maxx,y​Px,y​{τcouple​>t}); Theorem 5.5 (tmix(ε)≤c(d) n2log⁡2ε−1t_{\mathrm{mix}}(\varepsilon)\le c(d)\,n^2\log_2\varepsilon^{-1}tmix​(ε)≤c(d)n2log2​ε−1 for the lazy torus walk); Theorem 5.7 (Metropolis colorings, q>3Δq>3\Deltaq>3Δ: mixing in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn)); Theorem 5.8 (hardcore Glauber, λ<(Δ−1)−1\lambda<(\Delta-1)^{-1}λ<(Δ−1)−1: mixing in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn)); Proposition 6.1 with Example 6.7 (τtop\tau_{\mathrm{top}}τtop​ is a strong stationary time); Lemma 6.11 (sx(t)≤Px{τ>t}s_x(t)\le\mathbb P_x\{\tau>t\}sx​(t)≤Px​{τ>t}); Lemma 6.13 (∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV≤sx(t)\|P^t(x,\cdot)-\pi\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\le s_x(t)∥Pt(x,⋅)−π∥TV​≤sx​(t)); Proposition 6.10 (d(t)≤max⁡xPx{τ>t}d(t)\le\max_x\mathbb P_x\{\tau>t\}d(t)≤maxx​Px​{τ>t}).

Significance

The results. The coupling bound is the single most used upper-bound technique in the subject: Missions VIII (path coupling), IX (Ising) and XI (cutoff examples) all instantiate it. Strong stationary times and separation distance return in Mission XI (separation cutoff) and underlie perfect sampling in Mission XIII. The three concrete bounds (torus, colorings, hardcore) are the standard first applications and give the first polynomial mixing results of the series; the colorings and hardcore chains are the objects of intense ongoing research on sampling thresholds.

Formalizing them. Nothing here exists in Mathlib. The novel infrastructure is the stopping-rule formalization of randomized stopping times over trajectory prefixes — measure-theory-free, but expressive enough for the strong stationarity identity — and the Markovian-coupling predicate on pair chains. Both are reused later in the series (Matthews method, cutoff, CFTP).

Difficulty

The coupling bound itself is short once Proposition 4.7 (Mission II) is available; the work is in the applications. For the torus, the coordinatewise coupling requires assembling ddd one-dimensional couplings and bounding the coupling time by a sum of one-dimensional meeting times — the formal bookkeeping of "couple coordinate by coordinate" is the real cost, and the constant c(d)c(d)c(d) absorbs it. For Theorem 5.7 and 5.8 the argument is a grand coupling over all colorings/configurations simultaneously; the formal statements quantify only over the resulting bound, but a solver must build the coupling. For Proposition 6.1, the crux is the induction "given kkk cards under the original bottom card, all k!k!k! orders are equally likely" — an exchangeability argument that must be carried through the stopping-rule encoding. Lemma 6.11 is where the definition of strong stationarity does its work; the naive attempt to prove Proposition 6.10 directly from the coupling characterization fails, which is exactly why separation distance is introduced.

Formalization scope

Couplings of chains are transition matrices on V×VV\times VV×V with marginal conditions stated row by row; the stay-together convention is part of the predicate, matching (5.2). Stopping rules take the trajectory prefix (which includes the starting state), so times "depending on the starting position" are covered; strong stationarity packages the stopping rule bounds, almost-sure finiteness (∑tPx{τ=t}=1\sum_t\mathbb P_x\{\tau=t\}=1∑t​Px​{τ=t}=1), and the product identity. The colorings chain lives on the subtype of proper colorings; the hardcore chain is the Glauber dynamics of Mission II restricted to the subtype of hardcore configurations (transitions never leave it). Mixing-time upper bounds carry an explicit +1+1+1 for integer rounding where the book's real-valued display would otherwise be false for the integer-valued tmixt_{\mathrm{mix}}tmix​. The torus statement fixes ε≤1/2\varepsilon\le 1/2ε≤1/2; for ε\varepsilonε near 111 the display is false as stated in the book.

Welcome contributions: interface lemmas between setAvoidTailProb of the pair chain and the two coordinates; the taboo-matrix form of coupling-time tails; exchangeability infrastructure for the deck chains (reused in Mission V).

Selected references

  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres, E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009. https://documents.epfl.ch/groups/i/ip/ipg/www/2013-2014/Random_Walks/markovmixing.pdf
  • D. Aldous, P. Diaconis, Shuffling cards and stopping times, Amer. Math. Monthly 93 (1986). https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1986.11971821
  • P. Diaconis, J. A. Fill, Strong stationary times via a new form of duality, Ann. Probab. 18 (1990). https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990628
22 thms5 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsEconomics+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Endogenous Risk Exposure and Systemic Instability II: Banks Take More Risk in the Least Equilibrium of a Complete Network than of a Ring NetworkResearch Paper

Motivation

Banks lend to one another, and the shape of the resulting network decides how a loss at one bank reaches the others. A long line of work, starting with Allen and Gale (2000) and continued by Acemoglu, Ozdaglar and Tahbaz-Salehi (2015), compares the ring network, where each bank is owed money by one neighbour, with the complete network, where every bank holds an equal share of every other bank's debt. That literature studies contagion after shocks hit and finds that the complete network spreads losses thinly and can absorb small shocks better.

Shu's paper (Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.01519) asks the ex-ante question: when banks choose how much risk to take, knowing the network they sit in, which network makes them take more? A successful bank subsidizes its failed counterparties through the clearing of interbank debt, and anticipating that subsidy pushes it toward riskier projects. Proposition 4 of the paper says that this effect is stronger in the complete network. This mission formalizes that proposition and the computation behind it.

Setting

There are N≥2N\ge2N≥2 banks. In a regular network with share matrix Θ=[θij]\Theta=[\theta_{ij}]Θ=[θij​], bank jjj owes bank iii the face value θijdˉ\theta_{ij}\bar dθij​dˉ, every bank has total interbank liability dˉ>0\bar d>0dˉ>0, and every bank also owes a senior deposit v>0v>0v>0. The two networks of Definition 3 are

ΘR: θij=1 iff j≡i−1(modN),ΘC=1N−1(1N,N−IN).\Theta^R:\ \theta_{ij}=1 \text{ iff } j\equiv i-1 \pmod N,\qquad \Theta^C=\tfrac{1}{N-1}\big(\mathbb 1_{N,N}-I_N\big).ΘR: θij​=1 iff j≡i−1(modN),ΘC=N−11​(1N,N​−IN​).

Each bank iii chooses a project ZiZ_iZi​ in a common interval [Z‾,Z‾][\underline Z,\overline Z][Z​,Z]. The project pays ZiZ_iZi​ with probability P(Zi)P(Z_i)P(Zi​) and 000 otherwise, independently across banks. Assumption 1 requires P(Z)∈(0,1)P(Z)\in(0,1)P(Z)∈(0,1), PPP decreasing, and P(Z) ZP(Z)\,ZP(Z)Z concave. The standing assumption Z‾≥v+dˉ\underline Z\ge v+\bar dZ​≥v+dˉ says a successful bank never defaults.

After the state ω∈{s,f}N\omega\in\{s,f\}^Nω∈{s,f}N is realized, interbank payments clear. A payment equilibrium is a vector ddd with

di={min⁡[∑jθijdj+ei−v, dˉ]}+,d_i=\Big\{\min\Big[\textstyle\sum_j\theta_{ij}d_j+e_i-v,\ \bar d\Big]\Big\}^+,di​={min[∑j​θij​dj​+ei​−v, dˉ]}+,

where ei=Zie_i=Z_iei​=Zi​ if bank iii succeeds and 000 if it fails. Bank iii's profit is (∑jθijdj∗+ei−v−di∗)+\big(\sum_j\theta_{ij}d^*_j+e_i-v-d^*_i\big)^+(∑j​θij​dj∗​+ei​−v−di∗​)+. A risk-taking equilibrium is a profile Z∗Z^*Z∗ in which each Zi∗Z^*_iZi∗​ maximizes bank iii's expected profit given Z−i∗Z^*_{-i}Z−i∗​. Equilibria need not be unique, and the paper selects the least one.

The key quantity is the network risk-taking distortion

Di(Z−i)=∑ω−i(dˉ−∑jθijdj∗(ωi=s))Pr⁡(ω−i),\mathcal D_i(Z_{-i})=\sum_{\omega_{-i}}\Big(\bar d-\sum_j\theta_{ij}d^*_j(\omega^{i=s})\Big)\Pr(\omega_{-i}),Di​(Z−i​)=ω−i​∑​(dˉ−j∑​θij​dj∗​(ωi=s))Pr(ω−i​),

which is bank iii's expected net interbank payment to the other banks when its own project succeeds. In a regular network, expected profit equals P(Zi)(Zi−v)−P(Zi) Di(Z−i)P(Z_i)(Z_i-v)-P(Z_i)\,\mathcal D_i(Z_{-i})P(Zi​)(Zi​−v)−P(Zi​)Di​(Z−i​), so Di\mathcal D_iDi​ acts like extra debt that the bank repays only when it succeeds. Superscripts CCC and RRR mark the complete and ring networks.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4

With ZCZ^CZC the least equilibrium of the complete network and ZRZ^RZR the least equilibrium of the ring,

ZiR≤ZiCfor every bank i.Z^R_i\le Z^C_i\qquad\text{for every bank } i.ZiR​≤ZiC​for every bank i.

Milestones

  1. Clearing in the complete network (IA p. 15): a failed bank pays (dˉ−N−1Sv)+\big(\bar d-\frac{N-1}{S}v\big)^+(dˉ−SN−1​v)+, where SSS is the number of successful banks.
  2. (I.13): with qqq the common success probability of the other banks and Pr⁡(m)=(N−1m)(1−q)mqN−1−m\Pr(m)=\binom{N-1}{m}(1-q)^mq^{N-1-m}Pr(m)=(mN−1​)(1−q)mqN−1−m,
DiC=∑m=1N−1min⁡(mvN−m,mdˉN−1)Pr⁡(m).\mathcal D^C_i=\sum_{m=1}^{N-1}\min\Big(\frac{mv}{N-m},\frac{m\bar d}{N-1}\Big)\Pr(m).DiC​=m=1∑N−1​min(N−mmv​,N−1mdˉ​)Pr(m).
  1. (I.14): in the ring, a failed bank pays (dˉ−Kiv)+(\bar d-K_iv)^+(dˉ−Ki​v)+, where KiK_iKi​ counts the consecutive failed banks upstream of iii, starting with iii itself.
  2. (I.15): the conditional distribution, given mmm failures, of what a successful bank receives in the ring.
  3. Closed form of DiR\mathcal D^R_iDiR​ (IA p. 16, also p. 14).
  4. Lemma I.A (ii): ∑l=rn(lr)(n−l)=(n+1r+1)n−rr+2\sum_{l=r}^n\binom lr(n-l)=\binom{n+1}{r+1}\frac{n-r}{r+2}∑l=rn​(rl​)(n−l)=(r+1n+1​)r+2n−r​. Part (i), the classical hockey-stick identity, is already published and proved on the platform and is included by reference.
  5. Lemma I.B: ∑iAi+≥(∑iAi−B)++B\sum_i A_i^+\ge(\sum_iA_i-B)^++B∑i​Ai+​≥(∑i​Ai​−B)++B whenever B<max⁡iAiB<\max_iA_iB<maxi​Ai​.
  6. DiR≤DiC\mathcal D^R_i\le\mathcal D^C_iDiR​≤DiC​ when all other banks choose the same project.

Significance

The result. Proposition 4 reverses the conventional reading of the complete network as the safer structure. The co-insurance that makes it resilient after a shock is the same cross-subsidy that weakens incentives before the shock. Two networks with the same face-value liabilities dˉ+v\bar d+vdˉ+v therefore induce different equilibrium risk-taking. Liabilities alone are not a sufficient statistic for risk incentives, and the network topology matters in its own right. The same comparison is the template for the paper's later results on the number of banks and on central clearing.

Formalizing it. The proposition is proved in the paper, not open, and none of it is machine-checked yet. A formal proof must establish the two clearing vectors, the counting identity behind (I.15), and the two closed forms of the distortion. The printed argument also leaves a step to be supplied: its final appeal to "the monotone selection theorem" needs the distortion comparison at every profile of the other banks. It is proved only when they all choose the same project, and it is false in general. The goal is nevertheless stated for least equilibria exactly as in the paper, and its formal proof has to bridge that gap. The milestones are true as stated.

Difficulty

The distortion of the ring is not a function of the number of failures alone. What a successful bank receives depends on the length of the run of failed banks immediately upstream of it, so the closed form needs an exact count of the binary strings with a given number of failures and a given initial run length. The comparison of the two distortions is not termwise either: the positive part sits inside a sum on the ring side and outside it on the complete side.

The obvious final step is to say that the distortion is larger in the complete network, and that a larger distortion raises the optimal risk exposure. That step does not go through as stated. The equilibrium comparison needs control of the best-response maps at every profile, while the distortion comparison holds only on the diagonal, where all other banks choose the same project. Some further structure of the two games is needed to restrict attention to that diagonal.

Formalization scope

Banks are Fin N with N≥2N\ge2N≥2, and states are Fin N → Bool with true meaning success. The paper's general model is specialized to a regular network given by (Θ,dˉ,v)(\Theta,\bar d,v)(Θ,dˉ,v), which covers both networks of Definition 3. Every expectation is a finite sum over the 2N2^N2N states, so no measure theory is involved. The payment equilibrium d∗d^*d∗ is the greatest solution of the clearing system, because the paper asserts only generic uniqueness. Every bank's project lies in [Z‾,Z‾][\underline Z,\overline Z][Z​,Z], and Z‾≥v+dˉ\underline Z\ge v+\bar dZ​≥v+dˉ is a hypothesis of every statement.

The distortion milestones (2, 5 and 8) are stated at the constant profile in which every bank chooses the same zzz, which is how the page's single P(Z−i)P(Z_{-i})P(Z−i​) reads. At m=N−1m=N-1m=N−1, where every other bank fails, the printed ring binomial has lower index −1-1−1, and the weight is fixed explicitly to 111 at l=N−1l=N-1l=N−1. Proposition 4 is stated for least equilibria and weak inequality. It adds one hypothesis the page does not state, continuity of PPP on [Z‾,Z‾][\underline Z,\overline Z][Z​,Z], so that best responses and least equilibria exist. Without it the IsLeast hypotheses could be unsatisfiable and the goal vacuous.

Trivializing encodings are ruled out: d∗d^*d∗ is an actual solution of the clearing system, not a junk supremum, and the run length KiK_iKi​ is only used in states where some bank succeeds.

A complete development needs Knaster–Tarski on the box [0,dˉ]N[0,\bar d]^N[0,dˉ]N, the clearing computations for the two networks, binomial identities, and a monotone comparative statics argument for the equilibria. Published Topkis results on supermodular games (existence of least equilibria, and monotonicity of least fixed points in a parameter) are included by reference as tools. The clearing and counting lemmas are reusable for the paper's other results on ring and complete networks. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal, are welcome.

Not posed here: Proposition 1 (strategic complementarity in any network, a separate mission), Proposition 2 (existence), and the later comparative statics in the number of banks, central clearing and bailouts.

Selected references

  • C. Shu, Endogenous Risk Exposure and Systemic Instability, Management Science (accepted manuscript, 17 Sep 2024). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01519
  • F. Allen and D. Gale, Financial Contagion, Journal of Political Economy 108(1), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1086/262109
  • D. Acemoglu, A. Ozdaglar and A. Tahbaz-Salehi, Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review 105(2), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130456
  • L. Eisenberg and T. H. Noe, Systemic Risk in Financial Systems, Management Science 47(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.2.236.9835
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning and Optimization with Seasonal Patterns 2: Regret Lower Bound for Periodic Multi-Armed Bandits with Known PeriodsResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand, prices and click-through rates often follow seasonal cycles: weekly, monthly, yearly. A decision maker who repeatedly chooses among options whose expected payoffs repeat in time faces a non-stationary multi-armed bandit. Chen, Wang and Wang (arXiv:2005.08088v4, Operations Research, 2025) study the model in which each arm's mean reward is periodic with its own unknown period. They give a two-stage policy whose regret is O~(T∑kTk)\tilde O(\sqrt{T\sum_k T_k})O~(T∑k​Tk​​), and a lower bound showing that no policy, even one told the periods, does better than Ω(Tmax⁡kTk)\Omega(\sqrt{T\max_k T_k})Ω(Tmaxk​Tk​​). This mission formalizes that lower bound, Theorem 3 of the paper. A companion mission of the same series covers the upper bound.

Lower bounds of this kind fix what is achievable. For the stationary KKK-armed bandit, the minimax regret is of order TK\sqrt{TK}TK​ (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi, Freund and Schapire, 2002; Lattimore and Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, 2020, Ch. 15). In the periodic model a learner effectively faces ∑kTk\sum_k T_k∑k​Tk​ "effective arms" (arm kkk at each phase of its cycle), which suggests the rate T∑kTk\sqrt{T\sum_k T_k}T∑k​Tk​​. The paper proves the weaker but general bound Tmax⁡kTk/(32e)\sqrt{T\max_k T_k}/(32e)Tmaxk​Tk​​/(32e), which matches the upper bound up to a factor K\sqrt KK​ and logarithms.

Setting

There are K≥2K \ge 2K≥2 arms and epochs t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T. An instance ν\nuν is a family of mean rewards μk,t\mu_{k,t}μk,t​. If arm kkk is pulled at epoch ttt, the reward is drawn from the Gaussian law N(μk,t,1)\mathcal N(\mu_{k,t}, 1)N(μk,t​,1), independently of the past given the arm.

A sequence fff has minimum period p≥1p \ge 1p≥1 if f(t+p)=f(t)f(t+p) = f(t)f(t+p)=f(t) for all t≥1t \ge 1t≥1 and no smaller positive integer has this property.

A policy π\piπ chooses the arm πt\pi_tπt​ at epoch ttt at random, from a distribution that depends on the previous arms and rewards. Its expected regret on ν\nuν is display (1) of the paper:

Eν[RTπ]=∑t=1T(max⁡kμk,t−E[μπt,t]).\mathbb E_\nu[R^\pi_T] = \sum_{t=1}^T\Big(\max_k \mu_{k,t} - \mathbb E[\mu_{\pi_t,t}]\Big).Eν​[RTπ​]=t=1∑T​(kmax​μk,t​−E[μπt​,t​]).

Three classes of instances appear, all with unit-variance Gaussian rewards and means in [0,1][0,1][0,1] (Assumption 1):

  1. E1\mathcal E_1E1​: every arm is stationary;
  2. E2(T1)\mathcal E_2(T_1)E2​(T1​): the first arm's mean has minimum period T1T_1T1​, the other arms are stationary;
  3. E3(T1,…,TK)\mathcal E_3(T_1,\dots,T_K)E3​(T1​,…,TK​): arm kkk's mean has minimum period TkT_kTk​.

The proof compares instances through the metric (B-48),

M(ν1,ν2)=(∑k=1K∑p=1Tk(μk,p(ν1)−μk,p(ν2))2)1/2.\mathcal M(\nu_1,\nu_2) = \Big(\sum_{k=1}^K\sum_{p=1}^{T_k}\big(\mu^{(\nu_1)}_{k,p} - \mu^{(\nu_2)}_{k,p}\big)^2\Big)^{1/2}.M(ν1​,ν2​)=(k=1∑K​p=1∑Tk​​(μk,p(ν1​)​−μk,p(ν2​)​)2)1/2.

The periods satisfy Assumption 3 with the parameters (7): with n=⌊T/K⌋n = \lfloor\sqrt{T/K}\rfloorn=⌊T/K​⌋ and g=⌈n⌉g = \lceil\sqrt n\rceilg=⌈n​⌉, T>4KT > 4KT>4K, g≥2g \ge 2g≥2 and Tk<n/(2g)T_k < n/(2g)Tk​<n/(2g) for every kkk.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 24)

For every policy π\piπ there is ν∈E3(T1,…,TK)\nu \in \mathcal E_3(T_1,\dots,T_K)ν∈E3​(T1​,…,TK​) with

Eν[RTπ]≥132eTmax⁡kTk.\mathbb E_\nu[R^\pi_T] \ge \frac{1}{32e}\sqrt{T\max_k T_k}.Eν​[RTπ​]≥32e1​Tkmax​Tk​​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 12 (p. 23). Stationary Gaussian bandits whose arms other than the first have known mean 1/21/21/2: every policy has regret at least T/(82e)\sqrt T/(8\sqrt2 e)T​/(82​e) on some choice of μ1∈[0,1]\mu_1 \in [0,1]μ1​∈[0,1].
  2. Lemma 13 (p. 23). One periodic arm: every policy has regret at least TT1/(16e)\sqrt{TT_1}/(16e)TT1​​/(16e) on some instance of E2(T1)\mathcal E_2(T_1)E2​(T1​) whose other arms have mean 1/21/21/2.
  3. Fact 1 (proof of Theorem 3, p. 48). E3\mathcal E_3E3​ is dense in E2∪E3\mathcal E_2 \cup \mathcal E_3E2​∪E3​ under M\mathcal MM: an instance of E2(T1)\mathcal E_2(T_1)E2​(T1​) can be perturbed on the arms other than the first into an instance of E3(T1,…,TK)\mathcal E_3(T_1,\dots,T_K)E3​(T1​,…,TK​) at M\mathcal MM-distance less than any δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  4. Fact 2 (proof of Theorem 3, p. 48). The regret fπ(ν)=Eν[RTπ]f_\pi(\nu) = \mathbb E_\nu[R^\pi_T]fπ​(ν)=Eν​[RTπ​] is continuous in ν\nuν on E2∪E3\mathcal E_2 \cup \mathcal E_3E2​∪E3​ for M\mathcal MM, uniformly in π\piπ.

Significance

Theorem 3 shows that knowing the periods does not remove the cost of learning them phase by phase: the regret must grow like Tmax⁡kTk\sqrt{T\max_k T_k}Tmaxk​Tk​​, not like TK\sqrt{TK}TK​. Together with the paper's upper bound O~(T∑kTk)\tilde O(\sqrt{T\sum_k T_k})O~(T∑k​Tk​​) and the inequality Tmax⁡kTk≥T∑kTk/K\sqrt{T\max_k T_k} \ge \sqrt{T\sum_k T_k}/\sqrt KTmaxk​Tk​​≥T∑k​Tk​​/K​, it shows the two-stage policy is near-optimal when KKK is fixed. The intermediate results are reusable: Lemma 12 is a clean two-point Gaussian lower bound, Lemma 13 is a phase-decomposition argument that applies to any bandit model with known cyclic structure, and facts 1 and 2 give a continuity framework for the regret as a function of the instance.

The result has a published proof. As far as the platform's records show, none of it has been machine-checked. The stationary minimax lower bound of Lattimore and Szepesvári (a different family and constant) exists on the platform, together with the Bretagnolle–Huber inequality, the Gaussian KL divergence and the divergence decomposition, which this mission lists as tools.

Difficulty

The two-point argument of Lemma 12 is standard, but its constant needs Δ=1/(2T)<1/2\Delta = \sqrt{1/(2T)} < 1/2Δ=1/(2T)​<1/2, so small horizons must be handled separately. Lemma 13 decomposes the problem into T1T_1T1​ phase problems; making this rigorous means showing that a policy on the periodic problem induces, on each phase, a policy on a stationary problem of horizon ⌊T/T1⌋\lfloor T/T_1\rfloor⌊T/T1​⌋, with a history law that factorizes accordingly. The phase-wise instances produced by the decomposition need not have minimum period exactly T1T_1T1​ (all phases may coincide), so a perturbation is needed to land in E2(T1)\mathcal E_2(T_1)E2​(T1​); the constant has slack for it. Fact 2 asks for continuity of an integral against the law of a TTT-round adaptive process, uniformly over all policies, which needs a domination argument that does not depend on the policy's kernels.

Formalization scope

  • Arms are Fin K, 0-based: the paper's first arm is index 000. Epochs are 1-based natural numbers; history coordinate iii is epoch i+1i+1i+1. Values of the means at t=0t = 0t=0 are ignored.
  • A policy is the platform's BanditAlgorithm.BanditPolicy K: one Markov kernel per round from the history to the next arm. The history law periodicMeasure reuses the platform's step kernel with the Gaussian bandit of the current epoch's means; with constant means it is BanditAlgorithm.banditMeasure of BanditAlgorithm.gaussianBandit. Lemma 12 is stated with the platform's banditRegret, Tμ∗−E[∑tXt]T\mu^* - \mathbb E[\sum_t X_t]Tμ∗−E[∑t​Xt​], which equals (1) for Gaussian arms; the other statements use (1) directly.
  • Assumption 1 is stated on epochs 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T. Minimum periods are exact.
  • Every lower bound has the order "for every policy there is an instance", with the instance in the class, so the policy may depend on KKK, TTT and the periods; this is the paper's "policy that knows TkT_kTk​". The supremum over the class is replaced by an attained instance, which is the stronger form.
  • Added hypotheses, all disclosed: K≥2K \ge 2K≥2 (with one arm the regret is 000); Tk≥1T_k \ge 1Tk​≥1 (the paper's Tk∈N+T_k \in \mathbb N^+Tk​∈N+); in Lemmas 12 and 13, the means of the arms other than the first are 1/21/21/2, which is how "a policy that knows μk\mu_kμk​ for k≥2k \ge 2k≥2" is read (with arbitrary known values the printed lemmas fail). Assumption 3 with (7) is the standing assumption of Appendix B.4.
  • A statement with the quantifiers in the order "there is an instance for every policy", without the [0,1][0,1][0,1] clause, or without exact minimum periods, would be false or trivial; none of these is the target.

Welcome contributions: the bridge between periodicMeasure with constant means and banditMeasure, the phase decomposition of the history law, and the uniform continuity of the regret in the means.

Selected references

  • N. Chen, C. Wang, L. Wang, Learning and Optimization with Seasonal Patterns, Operations Research, 2025; arXiv:2005.08088v4, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08088v4
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Y. Freund, R. E. Schapire, The nonstochastic multiarmed bandit problem, SIAM Journal on Computing 32(1), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539701398375
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation 1: LSVI-UCB Has Regret O(√(d³H³Tι²)) with Probability 1 − p on Linear MDPsResearch Paper

Motivation

Reinforcement learning with large or continuous state spaces is done in practice with function approximation: the agent represents value functions in a low-dimensional parametric family instead of a table indexed by states. For tabular Markov decision processes, regret bounds of order H2SAT\sqrt{H^2SAT}H2SAT​ have been known since the work on UCRL and UCBVI, but they scale with the number of states SSS and actions AAA and say nothing when SSS is infinite. Before 2019, provable guarantees for function approximation either needed a simulator, assumed deterministic transitions, or had regret exponential in the horizon.

Jin, Yang, Wang and Jordan, Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation (arXiv:1907.05388, COLT 2020), identified a model, the linear MDP, in which an optimistic version of least-squares value iteration has regret polynomial in the feature dimension ddd and the horizon HHH and independent of SSS and AAA. The model and the algorithm, LSVI-UCB, became a standard reference point for the theory of RL with function approximation.

Timeline:

  • 2017–2018: Azar, Osband, Munos (arXiv:1703.05449) and Jin, Allen-Zhu, Bubeck, Jordan (arXiv:1807.03765) give near-optimal T\sqrt TT​ regret for tabular episodic MDPs.
  • 2019: Yang and Wang (arXiv:1902.04779) study linear transition models with a simulator; Jin, Yang, Wang, Jordan prove Theorem 3.1 below without a simulator.
  • 2020: Zanette, Lazaric, Kochenderfer, Brunskill (arXiv:2003.00153) improve the dependence on ddd under a low inherent Bellman error assumption.

Setting

An episodic MDP MDP(S,A,H,P,r)\mathrm{MDP}(\mathcal S,\mathcal A,H,\mathbb P,r)MDP(S,A,H,P,r) has a measurable state space S\mathcal SS, a finite action set A\mathcal AA, a horizon HHH, transition kernels Ph(⋅∣x,a)\mathbb P_h(\cdot\mid x,a)Ph​(⋅∣x,a) and deterministic rewards rh(x,a)∈[0,1]r_h(x,a)\in[0,1]rh​(x,a)∈[0,1] for steps h=1,…,Hh=1,\dots,Hh=1,…,H. A policy π(x,h)\pi(x,h)π(x,h) chooses an action at each state and step. Its value functions satisfy the Bellman equation Qhπ=rh+PhVh+1πQ^\pi_h=r_h+\mathbb P_hV^\pi_{h+1}Qhπ​=rh​+Ph​Vh+1π​, Vhπ(x)=Qhπ(x,π(x,h))V^\pi_h(x)=Q^\pi_h(x,\pi(x,h))Vhπ​(x)=Qhπ​(x,π(x,h)), VH+1π=0V^\pi_{H+1}=0VH+1π​=0, where PhV(x,a)=∫V dPh(⋅∣x,a)\mathbb P_hV(x,a)=\int V\,d\mathbb P_h(\cdot\mid x,a)Ph​V(x,a)=∫VdPh​(⋅∣x,a); the optimal values Vh⋆V^\star_hVh⋆​, Qh⋆Q^\star_hQh⋆​ satisfy the same recursion with a maximum over actions.

The MDP is linear (Assumption A) with feature map ϕ:S×A→Rd\phi:\mathcal S\times\mathcal A\to\mathbb R^dϕ:S×A→Rd if ∥ϕ∥≤1\|\phi\|\le1∥ϕ∥≤1 and for each step there are signed measures μh=(μh(1),…,μh(d))\boldsymbol\mu_h=(\mu_h^{(1)},\dots,\mu_h^{(d)})μh​=(μh(1)​,…,μh(d)​) and a vector θh\theta_hθh​ with

Ph(⋅∣x,a)=⟨ϕ(x,a),μh(⋅)⟩,rh(x,a)=⟨ϕ(x,a),θh⟩,\mathbb P_h(\cdot\mid x,a)=\langle\phi(x,a),\boldsymbol\mu_h(\cdot)\rangle,\qquad r_h(x,a)=\langle\phi(x,a),\theta_h\rangle,Ph​(⋅∣x,a)=⟨ϕ(x,a),μh​(⋅)⟩,rh​(x,a)=⟨ϕ(x,a),θh​⟩,

and ∥θh∥≤d\|\theta_h\|\le\sqrt d∥θh​∥≤d​, ∥(∣μh(1)∣(S),…,∣μh(d)∣(S))∥≤d\|(|\mu_h^{(1)}|(\mathcal S),\dots,|\mu_h^{(d)}|(\mathcal S))\|\le\sqrt d∥(∣μh(1)​∣(S),…,∣μh(d)​∣(S))∥≤d​.

In each episode k=1,…,Kk=1,\dots,Kk=1,…,K an adversary chooses the initial state x1kx^k_1x1k​; the agent then plays HHH steps, the next state xh+1kx^k_{h+1}xh+1k​ being drawn from Ph(⋅∣xhk,ahk)\mathbb P_h(\cdot\mid x^k_h,a^k_h)Ph​(⋅∣xhk​,ahk​). LSVI-UCB (Algorithm 1) computes, backwards over hhh, the Gram matrix Λhk=∑τ<kϕhτ(ϕhτ)⊤+λI\Lambda^k_h=\sum_{\tau<k}\phi^\tau_h(\phi^\tau_h)^\top+\lambda IΛhk​=∑τ<k​ϕhτ​(ϕhτ​)⊤+λI of the past features ϕhτ=ϕ(xhτ,ahτ)\phi^\tau_h=\phi(x^\tau_h,a^\tau_h)ϕhτ​=ϕ(xhτ​,ahτ​), the ridge-regression weight whkw^k_hwhk​ for the targets rh+max⁡aQh+1kr_h+\max_aQ^k_{h+1}rh​+maxa​Qh+1k​, and the optimistic estimate

Qhk(x,a)=min⁡{(whk)⊤ϕ(x,a)+βϕ(x,a)⊤(Λhk)−1ϕ(x,a), H},Q^k_h(x,a)=\min\Big\{(w^k_h)^\top\phi(x,a)+\beta\sqrt{\phi(x,a)^\top(\Lambda^k_h)^{-1}\phi(x,a)},\ H\Big\},Qhk​(x,a)=min{(whk​)⊤ϕ(x,a)+βϕ(x,a)⊤(Λhk​)−1ϕ(x,a)​, H},

and then plays greedily with respect to QhkQ^k_hQhk​. Its policy in episode kkk is πk\pi_kπk​, and the regret is

Regret(K)=∑k=1K[V1⋆(x1k)−V1πk(x1k)],T=KH.\mathrm{Regret}(K)=\sum_{k=1}^K\big[V^\star_1(x^k_1)-V^{\pi_k}_1(x^k_1)\big],\qquad T=KH.Regret(K)=k=1∑K​[V1⋆​(x1k​)−V1πk​​(x1k​)],T=KH.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There are absolute constants c,C>0c,C>0c,C>0 such that for every linear MDP, every p∈(0,1)p\in(0,1)p∈(0,1) and every run of LSVI-UCB with λ=1\lambda=1λ=1 and β=c⋅dHι\beta=c\cdot dH\sqrt\iotaβ=c⋅dHι​, ι=log⁡(2dT/p)\iota=\log(2dT/p)ι=log(2dT/p),

P(Regret(K)≤Cd3H3Tι2)≥1−p.\mathbb P\Big(\mathrm{Regret}(K)\le C\sqrt{d^3H^3T\iota^2}\Big)\ge1-p .P(Regret(K)≤Cd3H3Tι2​)≥1−p.

Milestones

The milestones follow Appendix B of the paper: linearity of QπQ^\piQπ (Proposition 2.3) and the weight bounds (Lemmas B.1, B.2, with Lemma D.1); the covering bound for the value class (Lemma D.6, with the Euclidean-ball covering of Lemma D.5); the uniform self-normalized concentration (Lemma D.4, with Theorem D.3) and the good event (Lemma B.3); the error propagation (Lemma B.4), optimism (Lemma B.5) and the recursion (Lemma B.6); and the bonus-sum bound (17)–(18), with Lemma D.2. Lemma D.2, Theorem D.3 and Lemma D.5 are already on the platform and are referenced.

A companion statement, not a milestone, formalizes Proposition 5.1 (§5): on a finite state space with non-degenerate features, if the Bellman operators Thπ\mathbb T^\pi_hThπ​ of (8) map linear action-value functions to linear ones for every policy, then Ph\mathbb P_hPh​ is linear in ϕ\phiϕ.

Significance

The theorem shows that exploration with function approximation can be sample-efficient without a simulator: the regret depends on the intrinsic dimension ddd of the features and polynomially on HHH, not on the size of the state space. Its analysis, a uniform concentration bound over a data-dependent class of value functions combined with optimism, is the template for a large later literature: misspecified and low-rank MDPs, kernel and neural function approximation, and reward-free exploration.

The result has a published proof, but no machine-checked one. A formalization supplies the measure-theoretic episodic MDP on a general state space, an interaction protocol with adaptive initial states, the LSVI-UCB algorithm, and a checked chain from self-normalized martingale bounds to the regret theorem. The formal statements also record two points where the printed paper is imprecise: the normalization of the measures μh\boldsymbol\mu_hμh​ (see Formalization scope) and the existential reading of the weights in Lemma B.1.

Difficulty

The regression targets rh+max⁡aQh+1k(xh+1τ,⋅)r_h+\max_aQ^k_{h+1}(x^\tau_{h+1},\cdot)rh​+maxa​Qh+1k​(xh+1τ​,⋅) depend on all past data through Qh+1kQ^k_{h+1}Qh+1k​. The self-normalized bound for vector-valued martingales (Theorem D.3) therefore cannot be applied to them directly: the natural first idea, conditioning on the past and treating Vh+1kV^k_{h+1}Vh+1k​ as fixed, fails because Vh+1kV^k_{h+1}Vh+1k​ is not measurable with respect to the past at the time xh+1τx^\tau_{h+1}xh+1τ​ is drawn. The concentration must hold uniformly over a function class, which requires a covering-number bound for a class parametrized by vectors and matrices (Lemma D.6) and a union bound in the right scale.

A second difficulty is formal: the probabilistic protocol mixes an adversary, a learning algorithm reading its own past outputs, and transition kernels on a general measurable space, and the martingale argument (Azuma–Hoeffding over the KHKHKH steps) needs every object to be measurable with respect to the right σ-algebra.

Formalization scope

  • Model. S\mathcal SS is any measurable space; A\mathcal AA is a finite nonempty type with its discrete σ-algebra and a linear order used only to break ties in the argmax. Steps and episodes are 1-based. VπV^\piVπ, QπQ^\piQπ, V⋆V^\starV⋆, Q⋆Q^\starQ⋆ are defined by the Bellman recursions (1) and (2), with value 000 outside 1≤h≤H1\le h\le H1≤h≤H; theorems about general policies assume them measurable.
  • Assumption A is stated with the total-variation normalization ∥(∣μh(i)∣(S))i∥≤d\|(|\mu_h^{(i)}|(\mathcal S))_i\|\le\sqrt d∥(∣μh(i)​∣(S))i​∥≤d​ instead of the printed ∥μh(S)∥≤d\|\boldsymbol\mu_h(\mathcal S)\|\le\sqrt d∥μh​(S)∥≤d​; under the printed condition Lemma B.1 is false. The feature map is assumed measurable.
  • Runs. A run is a process on a probability space with a filtration over the flattened time (k−1)(H+1)+(h−1)(k-1)(H+1)+(h-1)(k−1)(H+1)+(h−1): states are adapted, actions are those of Algorithm 1, and the conditional law of xh+1kx^k_{h+1}xh+1k​ given the past is Ph(⋅∣xhk,ahk)\mathbb P_h(\cdot\mid x^k_h,a^k_h)Ph​(⋅∣xhk​,ahk​). The initial states are otherwise unrestricted.
  • Constants. ccc and CCC are quantified before the spaces, ddd, HHH, KKK, ppp, the MDP and the run; d,H,K≥1d,H,K\ge1d,H,K≥1 and p∈(0,1)p\in(0,1)p∈(0,1). "With probability 1−p1-p1−p" is an upper bound on the outer measure of the failure event.
  • Ruling out trivializations. The goal does not assume the good event, optimism, or any milestone conclusion; β\betaβ is fixed by the existentially quantified ccc, not free; the regret uses the model value of the greedy policy, not a realized return. A sorry-free check exhibits a linear MDP and a run satisfying all hypotheses.
  • Known gap. Algorithm 1 clips QhkQ^k_hQhk​ only from above, so the bound ∣Vh+1k∣≤H|V^k_{h+1}|\le H∣Vh+1k​∣≤H that Lemma B.3's proof needs (and the target bound in Lemma B.2's proof, here an explicit hypothesis) is not automatic off the good event. Lemma B.3 is stated as printed, for every cβ>0c_\beta>0cβ​>0; a solver who finds it unprovable should report this in the discussion.
  • Infrastructure needed: covering numbers of norm balls, the self-normalized martingale bound, Azuma–Hoeffding (in Mathlib), integration against signed measures, and measurability of the algorithm's outputs. The MDP and run definitions are reusable for other episodic RL results; contributions of general lemmas about them are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Jin, Z. Yang, Z. Wang, M. I. Jordan, Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Linear Function Approximation, COLT 2020; arXiv:1907.05388v2, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.05388
  • Y. Abbasi-Yadkori, D. Pál, Cs. Szepesvári, Improved Algorithms for Linear Stochastic Bandits, NeurIPS 2011. https://papers.nips.cc/paper/2011/hash/e1d5be1c7f2f456670de3d53c7b54f4a-Abstract.html
  • M. G. Azar, I. Osband, R. Munos, Minimax Regret Bounds for Reinforcement Learning, ICML 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.05449
  • C. Jin, Z. Allen-Zhu, S. Bubeck, M. I. Jordan, Is Q-learning Provably Efficient?, NeurIPS 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.03765
  • L. F. Yang, M. Wang, Sample-Optimal Parametric Q-Learning Using Linearly Additive Features, ICML 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.04779
  • A. Zanette, A. Lazaric, M. Kochenderfer, E. Brunskill, Learning Near Optimal Policies with Low Inherent Bellman Error, ICML 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.00153
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Operations ResearchOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization 2: Empirical Burg-Ball DRO Bounds Converge Almost Surely to E[h(x;ξ)]Research Paper

Motivation

Many stochastic optimization models contain an expected-value constraint

Z0(x)=E0[h(x;ξ)]≤0,Z_0(x)=E_0[h(x;\xi)]\le 0,Z0​(x)=E0​[h(x;ξ)]≤0,

where ξ\xiξ is a random object with unknown law P0P_0P0​, xxx is a decision and hhh is a known loss. When P0P_0P0​ is known only through an i.i.d. sample ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​, data-driven distributionally robust optimization (DRO) replaces E0E_0E0​ by the worst case over a ball of distributions around the data. H. Lam, Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization (arXiv:1605.09349v1, 2016; Operations Research 67(4), 2019), studies a ball of reweightings of the sample itself, measured by the Burg entropy, and links its radius to empirical likelihood (Owen 2001).

Lam's Theorem 2 shows that, for a fixed decision xxx, the minimum and maximum of Ew[h(x;ξ)]E_w[h(x;\xi)]Ew​[h(x;ξ)] over this ball bracket Z0(x)Z_0(x)Z0​(x) with probability tending to 1−α1-\alpha1−α when the radius is χ1,1−α2/(2n)\chi^2_{1,1-\alpha}/(2n)χ1,1−α2​/(2n). Theorem 3, the goal of this mission, complements it: the two bounds also converge almost surely to Z0(x)Z_0(x)Z0​(x). A confidence statement says the robust bounds are rarely wrong; consistency says they are eventually tight, so that the robust constraint does not stay conservative as data accumulate.

This mission is the second of a three-mission series on the pointwise theory of the paper (1: coverage, Theorem 2; 3: reduction to a Burg ball on a finite support, Proposition 1).

Setting

Let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1,\xi_2,\dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… be i.i.d. random elements of a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ with law P0P_0P0​. Fix a decision x∈Rmx\in\mathbb R^mx∈Rm and write Z0(x)=E0[h(x;ξ)]Z_0(x)=E_0[h(x;\xi)]Z0​(x)=E0​[h(x;ξ)].

The Burg generator is ϕ(t)=−log⁡t+t−1\phi(t)=-\log t+t-1ϕ(t)=−logt+t−1 for t>0t>0t>0 and ϕ(t)=+∞\phi(t)=+\inftyϕ(t)=+∞ for t≤0t\le0t≤0. The empirical Burg-entropy divergence ball of radius η\etaη is the set of weight vectors

Un(η)={w∈Rn: −1n∑i=1nlog⁡(nwi)≤η, ∑i=1nwi=1, wi≥0}.\mathcal U_n(\eta)=\Big\{w\in\mathbb R^n:\ -\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\log(nw_i)\le\eta,\ \sum_{i=1}^nw_i=1,\ w_i\ge0\Big\}.Un​(η)={w∈Rn: −n1​i=1∑n​log(nwi​)≤η, i=1∑n​wi​=1, wi​≥0}.

On the simplex, −1n∑ilog⁡(nwi)=1n∑iϕ(nwi)-\frac1n\sum_i\log(nw_i)=\frac1n\sum_i\phi(nw_i)−n1​∑i​log(nwi​)=n1​∑i​ϕ(nwi​), the ϕ\phiϕ-divergence of www from the uniform weights.

Let 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and let q=χ1,1−α2q=\chi^2_{1,1-\alpha}q=χ1,1−α2​ be the (1−α)(1-\alpha)(1−α)-quantile of the χ12\chi^2_1χ12​ distribution. The lower and upper empirical DRO values are

Z‾n(x)=min⁡w∈Un(q/(2n))∑i=1nh(x;ξi)wi,Z‾n(x)=max⁡w∈Un(q/(2n))∑i=1nh(x;ξi)wi.\underline Z_n(x)=\min_{w\in\mathcal U_n(q/(2n))}\sum_{i=1}^nh(x;\xi_i)w_i,\qquad \overline Z_n(x)=\max_{w\in\mathcal U_n(q/(2n))}\sum_{i=1}^nh(x;\xi_i)w_i.Z​n​(x)=w∈Un​(q/(2n))min​i=1∑n​h(x;ξi​)wi​,Zn​(x)=w∈Un​(q/(2n))max​i=1∑n​h(x;ξi​)wi​.

The proof works with the centred observations h~i=h(x;ξi)−Z0(x)\tilde h_i=h(x;\xi_i)-Z_0(x)h~i​=h(x;ξi​)−Z0​(x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 12)

Under the conditions of Theorem 2 (0<Var0(h(x;ξ))<∞0<\mathrm{Var}_0(h(x;\xi))<\infty0<Var0​(h(x;ξ))<∞, Z0(x)Z_0(x)Z0​(x) finite),

Z‾n(x)→a.s.Z0(x)andZ‾n(x)→a.s.Z0(x)(n→∞).\underline Z_n(x)\xrightarrow{a.s.}Z_0(x)\quad\text{and}\quad\overline Z_n(x)\xrightarrow{a.s.}Z_0(x)\qquad(n\to\infty).Z​n​(x)a.s.​Z0​(x)andZn​(x)a.s.​Z0​(x)(n→∞).

Milestones (the steps of the printed proof, at a single decision)

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 38, Owen's Lemma 11.2): for i.i.d. YiY_iYi​ with EYi2<∞EY_i^2<\inftyEYi2​<∞, max⁡1≤i≤n∣Yi∣=o(n1/2)\max_{1\le i\le n}|Y_i|=o(n^{1/2})max1≤i≤n​∣Yi​∣=o(n1/2) a.s.
  2. (75)–(76) (p. 33): the Lagrangian dual
Z‾n(x)−Z0(x)=min⁡λ≥0,γ −∑i=1nλnlog⁡(1−h~i+γλ)+λq2n−γ,\overline Z_n(x)-Z_0(x)=\min_{\lambda\ge0,\gamma}\ -\sum_{i=1}^n\frac{\lambda}{n}\log\Big(1-\frac{\tilde h_i+\gamma}{\lambda}\Big)+\lambda\frac{q}{2n}-\gamma ,Zn​(x)−Z0​(x)=λ≥0,γmin​ −i=1∑n​nλ​log(1−λh~i​+γ​)+λ2nq​−γ,

with the printed conventions at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 and for arguments outside the domain of the logarithm. 3. The elementary inequality (p. 34): −log⁡(1−t)≤t+2t2-\log(1-t)\le t+2t^2−log(1−t)≤t+2t2 for ∣t∣≤1/2|t|\le1/2∣t∣≤1/2. 4. (77) (p. 34): if max⁡i∣h~i∣≤λ/2\max_i|\tilde h_i|\le\lambda/2maxi​∣h~i​∣≤λ/2 with λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, then

Z‾n(x)−Z0(x)≤1n∑i=1nh~i+2(1/n)∑ih~i2λ+λq2n.\overline Z_n(x)-Z_0(x)\le\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\tilde h_i+2\frac{(1/n)\sum_i\tilde h_i^2}{\lambda}+\lambda\frac{q}{2n}.Zn​(x)−Z0​(x)≤n1​i=1∑n​h~i​+2λ(1/n)∑i​h~i2​​+λ2nq​.
  1. The uniform-weight lower bound (p. 34): Z‾n(x)−Z0(x)≥1n∑ih~i\overline Z_n(x)-Z_0(x)\ge\frac1n\sum_i\tilde h_iZn​(x)−Z0​(x)≥n1​∑i​h~i​.

Milestones 2, 4 and 5 are deterministic statements about an arbitrary data vector; only Lemma 3 and the goal are probabilistic.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 shows that the empirical DRO with the χ12\chi^2_1χ12​ calibration is a consistent estimator of the constraint function at every fixed decision, not only a confidence bound. Together with Theorem 2 it places the empirical Burg-ball DRO on the same footing as the classical normal-approximation confidence interval: correct asymptotic coverage and shrinkage to the truth. The deterministic bounds (76)–(77) are also reusable on their own: they control the worst-case reweighting of any finite sample by its first two empirical moments.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof is known. The mission asks for a formal proof of the printed argument, specialized to one decision. A closely related open target exists on the platform: GenEmpLik.Expansion.lemma_1 (Duchi, Glynn and Namkoong) states the expansion of the robust mean, sample mean plus ρsn2/n+o(n−1/2)\sqrt{\rho s_n^2/n}+o(n^{-1/2})ρsn2​/n​+o(n−1/2), for a smooth generator class under stationary ergodic data. Combined with the strong law it would give the upper half of Theorem 3, but it is a different statement with different hypotheses and is itself unproved, so it is not used as a milestone here.

Difficulty

The tempting argument, "the ball shrinks to the empirical distribution and the empirical mean converges", does not close by itself: h(x;ξ)h(x;\xi)h(x;ξ) is only square integrable, not bounded, and the maximizing weight shifts mass towards the largest observations, so the gap Z‾n(x)−1n∑ih(x;ξi)\overline Z_n(x)-\frac1n\sum_ih(x;\xi_i)Zn​(x)−n1​∑i​h(x;ξi​) has to be controlled against the extremes of the sample rather than by the size of the ball alone. The printed proof routes this through the convex dual (76). That step needs a constraint qualification, the conjugate of the Burg generator with its boundary conventions (an infinite value outside the domain of the logarithm, and the degenerate multiplier λ=0\lambda=0λ=0), and a choice of multiplier that dominates every centred observation while still letting all three terms of (77) vanish. The almost-sure statement then combines Lemma 3 with two strong laws on one event of full probability.

Formalization scope

  • Data. The sample ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​ is ξ 0, …, ξ (n-1): a sequence of measurable maps that is independent (iIndepFun) and identically distributed (IdentDistrib with ξ 0). Z0(x)Z_0(x)Z0​(x) is the Bochner integral of h x ∘ ξ 0, and the moment conditions are MemLp (h x ∘ ξ 0) 2 (finite mean and variance) together with positive variance, which makes the integral the true mean.
  • Decision. The paper's x∈Θ⊂Rmx\in\Theta\subset\mathbb R^mx∈Θ⊂Rm is an arbitrary point of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); Θ\ThetaΘ plays no role in a pointwise statement and is dropped.
  • Quantile. qqq is pinned by N(0,1){y:y2≤q}=1−α\mathcal N(0,1)\{y:y^2\le q\}=1-\alphaN(0,1){y:y2≤q}=1−α, which determines it uniquely. The radius q/(2n)q/(2n)q/(2n) is passed as ρ=q/2\rho=q/2ρ=q/2 to the published GenEmpLik.Expansion.robustMean, whose ball has radius ρ/n\rho/nρ/n.
  • Values. Z‾n\overline Z_nZn​ is robustMean burg (q/2); Z‾n\underline Z_nZ​n​ is robustLower burg (q/2) from the frozen shared EmpiricalDRO.Coverage.Setting module, a real infimum over the same published ball (PhiDivRobust.Counterpart.probUncertaintySet). For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 the value sets are nonempty and bounded, so the real sSup/sInf are the attained maximum and minimum.
  • Divergence. burg is valued in EReal with +∞+\infty+∞ for t≤0t\le0t≤0, so a zero weight is excluded from the ball by an infinite divergence and never by a junk value of Real.log. The dual summand dualTerm is EReal-valued with the printed conventions: +∞+\infty+∞ for t≥λ>0t\ge\lambda>0t≥λ>0; 000 or +∞+\infty+∞ at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0.
  • Generalizations, disclosed. The deterministic milestones hold for every data vector; (76) is stated for every q>0q>0q>0 (the Slater point needs q>0q>0q>0), (77) for every λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 satisfying the hypothesis, and the uniform-weight bound for every radius ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0. In the goal, positive variance and the value of α\alphaα are kept as printed although the conclusion does not need them.
  • Ruled out. Junk logarithms at zero weights, a junk sSup/sInf of an empty value set, a free radius detached from the χ12\chi^2_1χ12​ quantile, and a dropped variance condition are all excluded by the encoding above. The paper's printed (75) writes Z‾n(x)\overline Z_n(x)Zn​(x) where its radius qn/(2n)q_n/(2n)qn​/(2n) makes it Z‾n∗(x)\overline Z^*_n(x)Zn∗​(x); at a single decision the two coincide.
  • Not posed. The paper's headline result, Theorem 4 (uniform coverage over Θ\ThetaΘ with a χ2\chi^2χ2-process quantile qnq_nqn​), and the uniform statements Theorems 5–7 need Donsker and Glivenko–Cantelli classes, weak convergence in ℓ∞(Θ)\ell^\infty(\Theta)ℓ∞(Θ) and conditional quantiles of Gaussian-process suprema, none of which has library support yet; they are left out.
  • Reuse. Lemma 3 for nonnegative variables is the proved platform theorem NumStochOpt.ListScheduling.lemma_8_1_i_max_over_sqrt_ae, included as a reference. Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.strong_law_ae supplies the laws of large numbers. Contributions welcome: the duality (76) for general ϕ\phiϕ-divergence balls, and the deterministic bound (77).

Selected references

  • H. Lam, Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization, arXiv:1605.09349v1, 2016; Operations Research 67(4), 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.09349v1 , https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1786
  • A. B. Owen, Empirical Likelihood, Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781420036152
  • A. Ben-Tal, D. den Hertog, A. De Waegenaere, B. Melenberg, G. Rennen, Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities, Management Science 59(2), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1641
  • J. C. Duchi, P. W. Glynn, H. Namkoong, Statistics of robust optimization: a generalized empirical likelihood approach, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(3), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.03425
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Mathematical PhysicsQuantum Information·Captain: Lucas

Hardy 2001 I: Five Reasonable Axioms — Degrees of Freedom K = N^rResearch Paper

Motivation

In the usual textbook presentation, quantum theory starts from postulates that have no obvious operational meaning: states are density operators on a complex Hilbert space, measurements are positive operators, and probabilities are given by the trace formula p=tr(A^ρ^)p=\mathrm{tr}(\hat A\hat\rho)p=tr(A^ρ^​). In Quantum Theory From Five Reasonable Axioms (Hardy 2001), Lucien Hardy asks whether this structure can instead be derived from simple statements about preparations, transformations and measurements, in the same way that classical probability theory can be set up by pure thought. He proposes five axioms (probabilities, simplicity, subspaces, composite systems, continuity) and argues that they single out finite- and countably-infinite-dimensional quantum theory. Dropping a single word, "continuous" in Axiom 5, leaves classical probability theory instead.

The paper is one of the starting points of the operational or generalized probabilistic theory (GPT) approach to the foundations of quantum mechanics. It was followed by reconstructions that replace the simplicity axiom, e.g. Dakić–Brukner 2009, Masanes–Müller 2011 and Chiribella–D'Ariano–Perinotti 2011.

Setting

A system is described by two integers. The dimension NNN is the maximum number of states that can be distinguished in a single-shot measurement. The number of degrees of freedom KKK is the minimum number of probability measurements needed to determine the state. The state is the vector p=(p1,…,pK)∈RKp=(p^1,\dots,p^K)\in\mathbb R^Kp=(p1,…,pK)∈RK of the probabilities of KKK fiducial measurements. States are not assumed normalized: the null state p=0p=0p=0 (no system present) is allowed. The set SSS of allowed states is convex, and its pure states are its extremal points other than 000.

The five axioms are:

  1. Probabilities. Relative frequencies converge to the same limit for every ensemble prepared by a given preparation.
  2. Simplicity. K=K(N)K=K(N)K=K(N) is a function of N=1,2,…N=1,2,\dotsN=1,2,…, and for each NNN it takes the minimum value consistent with the axioms.
  3. Subspaces. A system whose state is constrained to an MMM-dimensional subspace behaves like a system of dimension MMM.
  4. Composite systems. A composite of systems AAA and BBB has N=NANBN=N_AN_BN=NA​NB​ and K=KAKBK=K_AK_BK=KA​KB​.
  5. Continuity. Between any two pure states there is a continuous reversible transformation.

A probability theory can be summarized by its signature x=(x1,x2,… )x=(x_1,x_2,\dots)x=(x1​,x2​,…), defined through

K=Nx1+12!N(N−1)x2+13!N(N−1)(N−2)x3+⋯=∑k≥1(Nk)xk.K=Nx_1+\tfrac1{2!}N(N-1)x_2+\tfrac1{3!}N(N-1)(N-2)x_3+\cdots=\sum_{k\ge1}\binom Nk x_k .K=Nx1​+2!1​N(N−1)x2​+3!1​N(N−1)(N−2)x3​+⋯=k≥1∑​(kN​)xk​.

Classical probability theory has x=(1,0,0,… )x=(1,0,0,\dots)x=(1,0,0,…) and K=NK=NK=N. Complex quantum theory has x=(1,2,0,… )x=(1,2,0,\dots)x=(1,2,0,…) and K=N2K=N^2K=N2. Real and quaternionic quantum theory have x=(1,1,0,… )x=(1,1,0,\dots)x=(1,1,0,…) and x=(1,4,0,… )x=(1,4,0,\dots)x=(1,4,0,…).

Formalization targets

Goal: K(N)=NrK(N)=N^rK(N)=Nr

Section 8.1 shows that Axiom 3 forces K(N+1)≥K(N)+1K(N+1)\ge K(N)+1K(N+1)≥K(N)+1, and Axiom 4 forces K(NANB)=K(NA)K(NB)K(N_AN_B)=K(N_A)K(N_B)K(NA​NB​)=K(NA​)K(NB​). The goal theorem is the purely arithmetic consequence (Eq. (57)):

K(N+1)≥K(N)+1  and  K(NANB)=K(NA)K(NB)  (N,NA,NB≥1)⟹∃r∈{1,2,3,… }: K(N)=Nr  ∀N≥1.K(N+1)\ge K(N)+1\ \text{ and }\ K(N_AN_B)=K(N_A)K(N_B)\ \ (N,N_A,N_B\ge1)\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \exists r\in\{1,2,3,\dots\}:\ K(N)=N^r\ \ \forall N\ge1 .K(N+1)≥K(N)+1  and  K(NA​NB​)=K(NA​)K(NB​)  (N,NA​,NB​≥1)⟹∃r∈{1,2,3,…}: K(N)=Nr  ∀N≥1.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's own steps, in the paper's numbering:

  • Appendix 2: a strictly increasing, completely multiplicative KKK on the positive integers satisfies K(n)=nαK(n)=n^\alphaK(n)=nα. Section 8.1: if every nαn^\alphanα is an integer, then α\alphaα is a positive integer.
  • Section 6.6 / Appendix 1: measured probabilities are linear in the state, pmeas=r⋅pp_{\rm meas}=r\cdot ppmeas​=r⋅p. Section 6.7: transformations act as matrices, p↦Zpp\mapsto Zpp↦Zp. Section 7: reversible transformations send pure states to pure states.
  • Section 4 / 8.5: in classical probability theory the pure states are exactly the NNN basis states, and no continuous path of pure states joins two distinct ones. The equations ∑k(pk)2=1\sum_k(p^k)^2=1∑k​(pk)2=1, 0≤pk≤10\le p^k\le10≤pk≤1, ∑kpk=1\sum_kp^k=1∑k​pk=1 force a basis vector.
  • Sections 5 and 8.1: the signatures of the classical, quantum, real, quaternionic and K=N3K=N^3K=N3 theories, and the failure of K=KAKBK=K_AK_BK=KA​KB​ for real (too many) and quaternionic (too few) composites.
  • Section 5: the N2N^2N2 projectors ∣n⟩⟨n∣|n\rangle\langle n|∣n⟩⟨n∣, ∣mn⟩x⟨mn∣|mn\rangle_x\langle mn|∣mn⟩x​⟨mn∣, ∣mn⟩y⟨mn∣|mn\rangle_y\langle mn|∣mn⟩y​⟨mn∣ are linearly independent over R\mathbb RR and span the Hermitian operators.
  • Sections 5 and 8.6 (N=2N=2N=2): the overlap formula (35) for ccc; det⁡D>0  ⟺  c−<c<c+\det D>0 \iff c_-<c<c_+detD>0⟺c−​<c<c+​; the decomposition rTDr′=v⃗ TAv⃗′+μμ′/2r^TDr'=\vec v^{\,T}A\vec v'+\mu\mu'/2rTDr′=vTAv′+μμ′/2; AAA positive definite   ⟺  c−<c<c+\iff c_-<c<c_+⟺c−​<c<c+​; the Bloch matrix (87).
  • Section 8.7 (N=3N=3N=3): the 9×99\times99×9 matrix Dij=tr(P^iP^j)D_{ij}=\mathrm{tr}(\hat P_i\hat P_j)Dij​=tr(P^i​P^j​) with h=1/2h=1/2h=1/2, q=1/4q=1/4q=1/4.

Significance

The goal is the step at which the two structural axioms (subspaces and composites) cut the space of possible theories down to a single integer parameter rrr. Combined with Section 8.5, which rules out r=1r=1r=1 by continuity, and with the simplicity axiom, it gives K=N2K=N^2K=N2. Everything after that in the paper (the Bloch sphere, general NNN, the trace formula, complete positivity) is carried out inside the K=N2K=N^2K=N2 case. The milestones on signatures make precise in which sense real and quaternionic quantum theory are excluded: their degree-of-freedom counts are not multiplicative under composition.

The paper's argument is informal physics. This mission isolates the mathematically precise statements that the argument relies on, so that they can be proved independently of the physical interpretation. It does not formalize the axioms themselves as a single Lean structure.

Difficulty

The arithmetic goal is an instance of a classical question about monotone completely multiplicative functions. Complete multiplicativity alone fixes KKK only through its values at the primes, which are a priori unrelated to one another, and monotonicity is the only link between different primes. The step from a real exponent α\alphaα to an integer exponent is a separate integrality argument that the paper does not spell out. The linearity milestones need care because the hypotheses hold only on a convex set containing 000, not on all of RK\mathbb R^KRK. The N=2N=2N=2 milestones are explicit but delicate algebra with square roots and boundary cases a,b∈{0,1}a,b\in\{0,1\}a,b∈{0,1}.

Formalization scope

  • All theorems live in the namespace HardyFiveAxioms. State vectors are functions Fin K → ℝ. Indices are 000-based, so the paper's fiducial vector kkk is index k−1k-1k−1.
  • K(N)K(N)K(N) is a function ℕ → ℕ (goal) or ℕ → ℝ (Appendix 2), constrained only at arguments ≥1\ge1≥1. The value at 000 is irrelevant.
  • The signature is a finite list [x₁, …, x_L], and 1k!N(N−1)⋯(N−k+1)\frac1{k!}N(N-1)\cdots(N-k+1)k!1​N(N−1)⋯(N−k+1) is written as the binomial coefficient (Nk)\binom Nk(kN​).
  • Pure states are Set.extremePoints ℝ S \ {0}. The classical state space is {p≥0, ∑npn≤1}\{p\ge0,\ \sum_np_n\le1\}{p≥0, ∑n​pn​≤1}.
  • The quantum projectors are explicit matrices vecMulVec v (star v) over ℂ, and the qubit matrices DDD, CCC, AAA and the roots c±c_\pmc±​ are explicit definitions.
  • Axiom 5's "continuous reversible transformation" enters only through the classical milestone, as a continuous path unitInterval → ℝᴺ that stays inside the pure states.
  • The goal does not assume the conclusion in disguise. Its hypotheses are the two consequences of Axioms 3 and 4 derived in Section 8.1. It is not vacuous: K(N)=NrK(N)=N^rK(N)=Nr satisfies both hypotheses for every r≥1r\ge1r≥1.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone. The linearity, extreme-point and positive-definiteness lemmas are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • L. Hardy, Quantum Theory From Five Reasonable Axioms, arXiv:quant-ph/0101012v4, 2001. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0101012
  • B. Dakić, Č. Brukner, Quantum Theory and Beyond: Is Entanglement Special?, 2009. https://arxiv.org/abs/0911.0695
  • Ll. Masanes, M. P. Müller, A derivation of quantum theory from physical requirements, New J. Phys. 13, 063001, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.1483
  • G. Chiribella, G. M. D'Ariano, P. Perinotti, Informational derivation of quantum theory, Phys. Rev. A 84, 012311, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.6451
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance 1: With Valuations Learned after Purchase, the Seller's Optimal Policy Is p* = E max(V, s), F̄(q*) = (c − s)/(p* − s), r* = sResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers accept large volumes of returned merchandise, and a common default is the full refund: a buyer who is unhappy with a product brings it back and gets the whole price back. Many consumers only learn how much they value a product after they have it at home — clothes that do not fit, a gadget that does not suit the buyer's needs. A returns policy therefore plays two roles at once. It raises the buyer's willingness to pay before purchase, and after purchase it decides which units stay with consumers and which go back to the seller to be salvaged.

Xuanming Su's paper Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance (SSRN 1020451; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009, doi:10.1287/msom.1080.0240) puts this effect into a newsvendor model with random demand. The earlier literature it builds on, notably Che (1996) and Davis, Gerstner and Hagerty (1995), asked whether a seller should offer full refunds or no returns at all. Su's model makes the refund amount a separate decision variable. The answer it gives is closed-form and sharp: the optimal refund equals the salvage value. This mission formalizes Sections 3–4 of the paper: the single-seller model, the full-refund benchmark, and the optimal partial refund.

Setting

A seller stocks a quantity q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 before a selling season at unit cost ccc. Unsold and returned units are salvaged at value sss. Market demand is a nonnegative random variable XXX with law DDD, distribution function FFF and Fˉ=1−F\bar F = 1 - FFˉ=1−F. Each consumer who buys learns a valuation VVV after purchase. Valuations are i.i.d. with law ν\nuν and finite mean μ=EV\mu = EVμ=EV, and the standing assumption is μ>c>s≥0\mu > c > s \ge 0μ>c>s≥0.

The seller chooses a price ppp, a quantity qqq and a refund rrr. Once a consumer has bought, they keep the product if V≥rV \ge rV≥r and return it otherwise. The keep and return probabilities are

Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r).\bar G(r) = \mathbb P(V \ge r), \qquad G(r) = \mathbb P(V < r).Gˉ(r)=P(V≥r),G(r)=P(V<r).

Before purchase a consumer's expected utility from buying is Emax⁡(V,r)E\max(V, r)Emax(V,r), so this is the reservation price. Every consumer buys if p≤Emax⁡(V,r)p \le E\max(V, r)p≤Emax(V,r) and nobody buys otherwise (the demand rule (6)). With Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X, q)Emin(X,q) the expected sales of a stock qqq, the seller's expected profit (7)–(8) is

Π(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)] Emin⁡(X,q)−(c−s)qif p≤Emax⁡(V,r),\Pi(p,q,r) = \big[(p-s)\bar G(r) + (p-r)G(r)\big]\,E\min(X,q) - (c-s)q \quad\text{if } p \le E\max(V,r),Π(p,q,r)=[(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)]Emin(X,q)−(c−s)qif p≤Emax(V,r),

and −(c−s)q-(c-s)q−(c−s)q otherwise. Two special cases serve as benchmarks. Under full refunds (r=pr = pr=p) every consumer buys and the profit is Πfull(p,q)=(p−s)Gˉ(p)Emin⁡(X,q)−(c−s)q\Pi_{\text{full}}(p,q) = (p-s)\bar G(p)E\min(X,q) - (c-s)qΠfull​(p,q)=(p−s)Gˉ(p)Emin(X,q)−(c−s)q, from (1)–(2). Under no returns the price is μ\muμ and the profit is Πno(q)=(μ−s)Emin⁡(X,q)−(c−s)q\Pi_{\text{no}}(q) = (\mu - s)E\min(X,q) - (c-s)qΠno​(q)=(μ−s)Emin(X,q)−(c−s)q, from (3). Social welfare (12)–(13) is the sum of consumer surplus and seller profit, SW(p,q,r)=∫[r,∞)(v−s) dν(v)⋅Emin⁡(X,q)−(c−s)qSW(p,q,r) = \int_{[r,\infty)}(v-s)\,d\nu(v)\cdot E\min(X,q) - (c-s)qSW(p,q,r)=∫[r,∞)​(v−s)dν(v)⋅Emin(X,q)−(c−s)q, again subject to the demand rule.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 11)

With p∗=Emax⁡(V,s)p^* = E\max(V,s)p∗=Emax(V,s), r∗=sr^* = sr∗=s and any q∗q^*q∗ satisfying

Fˉ(q∗)=c−sEmax⁡(V,s)−s,\bar F(q^*) = \frac{c-s}{E\max(V,s) - s},Fˉ(q∗)=Emax(V,s)−sc−s​,

the triple (p∗,q∗,r∗)(p^*, q^*, r^*)(p∗,q∗,r∗) maximizes Π\PiΠ over all prices, all refunds and all quantities q≥0q \ge 0q≥0:

Π(p,q,r)≤Π(p∗,q∗,r∗).\Pi(p,q,r) \le \Pi(p^*, q^*, r^*).Π(p,q,r)≤Π(p∗,q∗,r∗).

Milestones

  1. The reservation price splits as Emax⁡(V,r)=rG(r)+∫[r,∞)v dνE\max(V,r) = rG(r) + \int_{[r,\infty)} v\,d\nuEmax(V,r)=rG(r)+∫[r,∞)​vdν, which is the step (28)→(29) of the proof (p. 26).
  2. At p=Emax⁡(V,r)p = E\max(V,r)p=Emax(V,r) the per-unit margin (p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r)(p-s)\bar G(r) + (p-r)G(r)(p−s)Gˉ(r)+(p−r)G(r) equals ∫[r,∞)(v−s) dν\int_{[r,\infty)}(v-s)\,d\nu∫[r,∞)​(v−s)dν, displays (27)–(30), p. 26.
  3. This integral is maximized at r=sr = sr=s (p. 26).
  4. Hence (Emax⁡(V,s),s)(E\max(V,s), s)(Emax(V,s),s) maximizes the margin subject to p≤Emax⁡(V,r)p \le E\max(V,r)p≤Emax(V,r), the first step of the proof (p. 26).
  5. The newsvendor critical fractile, a reference to a proved platform theorem (p. 26).
  6. Proposition 1(i) (p. 9): under full refunds, p∗∈arg⁡max⁡p(p−s)Gˉ(p)p^* \in \arg\max_p (p-s)\bar G(p)p∗∈argmaxp​(p−s)Gˉ(p) with Fˉ(q∗)=(c−s)/((p∗−s)Gˉ(p∗))\bar F(q^*) = (c-s)/((p^*-s)\bar G(p^*))Fˉ(q∗)=(c−s)/((p∗−s)Gˉ(p∗)) is optimal.
  7. Proposition 1(ii) at s=0s = 0s=0 (p. 26): with nonnegative valuations, no returns beats every full-refund policy.
  8. Corollary 1 (p. 12): the inequality (p−s)Gˉ(p)≤Emax⁡(V,s)−s(p-s)\bar G(p) \le E\max(V,s) - s(p−s)Gˉ(p)≤Emax(V,s)−s (p. 26), and its consequence that partial refunds earn at least the full-refund profit and, for strictly increasing FFF, stock at least as much.
  9. Corollary 2 (p. 13): the triple of Proposition 2 also maximizes social welfare.

Significance

The result separates two things that a full refund ties together: the price and the refund. Setting r=sr = sr=s sends every unit back to its more valuable use. Consumers who value the product above its salvage value keep it, and the rest return it to be salvaged. The price Emax⁡(V,s)E\max(V,s)Emax(V,s) then extracts the whole expected surplus. Consequences follow directly. Partial refunds dominate both full refunds and no returns (Corollary 1). They raise the stocking quantity, which benefits an upstream manufacturer paid per unit ordered. With valuation uncertainty resolved only after purchase, the monopoly outcome is welfare-maximizing (Corollary 2). Section 5 of the paper, formalized in the companion mission, uses Proposition 2's triple as the first-best target that supply chain contracts must implement.

The results are proved on paper with short arguments in Appendix A of the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission's contribution is a formal model of consumer returns with the demand rule built in, plus checked versions of Propositions 1–2 and Corollaries 1–2 for general valuation laws (with atoms), not only densities.

Difficulty

The paper's proof treats the problem as separable: first maximize the margin over (p,r)(p, r)(p,r), then solve a newsvendor problem in qqq. Two steps that are routine on paper need care. First, the margin bound must hold over the whole constrained region p≤Emax⁡(V,r)p \le E\max(V, r)p≤Emax(V,r), including refunds above the price and negative prices. It rests on comparing ∫[r,∞)(v−s) dν\int_{[r,\infty)}(v-s)\,d\nu∫[r,∞)​(v−s)dν with ∫[s,∞)(v−s) dν\int_{[s,\infty)}(v-s)\,d\nu∫[s,∞)​(v−s)dν, which needs the closed half-line convention to hold up at atoms of ν\nuν. Second, the newsvendor step must be done for a demand law that may have atoms, where Fˉ\bar FFˉ has no inverse. Without the demand rule the problem is not separable at all: formula (8) alone is unbounded in ppp. Without nonnegativity of demand and quantity it is unbounded in the other direction.

Formalization scope

Lean represents all prices, refunds, costs, quantities and profits as real numbers. The valuation law is a probability measure ν on ℝ with integrable identity, so a density is not required. The demand law is a probability measure D on ℝ with D (Set.Iio 0) = 0. Gˉ(r)\bar G(r)Gˉ(r) is (ν (Set.Ici r)).toReal and G(r)G(r)G(r) is (ν (Set.Iio r)).toReal, following the page's tie rule (keep iff V≥rV \ge rV≥r). Emin⁡(X,q)E\min(X,q)Emin(X,q) is SupplyChainTheory.expSales D q from the published module SupplyChainTheory_contracts, and Fˉ\bar FFˉ is 1 - ProbabilityTheory.cdf D. Printed page numbers equal PDF page numbers throughout the source.

Committed conventions and readings:

  • Demand rule inside the objectives. Profit and welfare are zero-demand cash flows when p>Emax⁡(V,r)p > E\max(V,r)p>Emax(V,r).
  • Nonnegativity. Stocking quantities range over q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 and demand is nonnegative. Both are the page's words ("stocking quantity", "a mass of infinitesimal consumers"), and without them the profit is unbounded.
  • Salvage value. 0≤s0 \le s0≤s, as on p. 26.
  • Optimality, not uniqueness. Every optimum is stated as optimality of the page's closed-form triple. Uniqueness fails when ν\nuν has gaps: if ν\nuν puts no mass on [s,r)[s, r)[s,r), the refund rrr is optimal too.
  • No continuity of FFF for the goal. The goal assumes no continuity of FFF. Existence of q∗q^*q∗ is not claimed.
  • Corollary 1, quantity part. The quantity comparison assumes FFF strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), which the proof's Fˉ−1\bar F^{-1}Fˉ−1 presumes. Without it the statement is false.
  • Proposition 1(ii) at s=0s = 0s=0. This case assumes nonnegative valuations. The "sufficiently low" form of Proposition 1(ii) is not formalized.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: p∗p^*p∗ and r∗r^*r∗ are the explicit values Emax⁡(V,s)E\max(V,s)Emax(V,s) and sss, not an argmax chosen by Classical.choose. The maximization ranges over all (p,r)(p, r)(p,r) and all q≥0q \ge 0q≥0, not a set restricted to r=sr = sr=s. The returned-units cash flow (p−r+s)G(r)(p - r + s)G(r)(p−r+s)G(r) appears in the profit.

The newsvendor step reuses the proved platform theorem SupplyChainTheory.chain_optimal_fractile. The other pieces needed are elementary lemmas on integrals over half-lines and the concavity of q↦Emin⁡(X,q)q \mapsto E\min(X,q)q↦Emin(X,q). They are reusable for any newsvendor-type model. Proofs of any milestone, and a general-law newsvendor optimality lemma that does not need a continuous FFF, are welcome.

Selected references

  • X. Su, Consumer Returns Policies and Supply Chain Performance, SSRN working paper 1020451, version of August 2008. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1020451 — published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 11(4), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1080.0240
  • Y.-K. Che, Customer Return Policies for Experience Goods, Journal of Industrial Economics 44(1), 1996. https://doi.org/10.2307/2950560
  • S. Davis, E. Gerstner, M. Hagerty, Money Back Guarantees in Retailing: Matching Products to Consumer Tastes, Journal of Retailing 71(1), 1995. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-4359(95)90010-1
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Equilibria II: On Two Links with Speeds s₁ ≤ s₂ ≤ φs₁ Some Nash Equilibrium Has Expected Makespan 1 + s₂/(s₁ + s₂) Times the Optimum, Reaching φ at s₂ = φs₁Research Paper

Motivation

When many independent users share a network, each routes its own traffic to minimize its own delay, and nobody optimizes the system as a whole. Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou asked how much this lack of coordination can cost: how far the social cost of a Nash equilibrium can be from the social optimum, in the worst case. Their paper Worst-case equilibria (STACS 1999; journal version 2009, doi:10.1016/j.cosrev.2009.04.003) introduced this ratio, later named the price of anarchy, and studied it on the simplest network: parallel links between one source and one destination. The ratio has since become a standard measure of the inefficiency of equilibria in routing, scheduling and auctions (see Chapters 17–20 of Nisan, Roughgarden, Tardos and Vazirani, Algorithmic Game Theory, 2007).

Most of the paper concerns links of equal capacity. Its last result, Theorem 4, turns to two links of different speeds and shows that unequal speeds make equilibria worse: the worst-case ratio rises from 3/23/23/2 for two identical links to the golden ratio φ=(1+5)/2≈1.618\varphi=(1+\sqrt5)/2\approx1.618φ=(1+5​)/2≈1.618.

Timeline. 1999: Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou define the coordination ratio; for two identical links they prove it is exactly 3/23/23/2, and for two links with speeds they give the golden-ratio lower bound of Theorem 4. 2002–2003: Mavronicolas and Spirakis, Koutsoupias, Mavronicolas and Spirakis, and Czumaj and Vöcking determine the asymptotic order of the price of anarchy for mmm identical and for mmm related links (Czumaj–Vöcking, ACM TALG 2007).

Setting

There are nnn agents and mmm parallel links. Agent iii has an amount of traffic wi>0w_i>0wi​>0, and link jjj has a speed sj>0s_j>0sj​>0. A pure profile a=(a1,…,an)a=(a_1,\dots,a_n)a=(a1​,…,an​) sends each agent's whole traffic over one link aia_iai​. The load of link jjj is Lj(a)=∑k: ak=jwkL_j(a)=\sum_{k:\,a_k=j}w_kLj​(a)=∑k:ak​=j​wk​, and an agent on link jjj experiences the delay Lj(a)/sjL_j(a)/s_jLj​(a)/sj​.

A mixed strategy of agent iii is a probability distribution (pi1,…,pim)(p_i^1,\dots,p_i^m)(pi1​,…,pim​) over the links; the agents randomize independently. The expected cost of agent iii is its expected delay. A profile ppp is a Nash equilibrium if no agent can lower its expected cost by changing its own distribution. The expected traffic on link jjj is Mj=∑ipijwiM^j=\sum_i p_i^jw_iMj=∑i​pij​wi​, and the cost to agent iii of placing its traffic on link jjj is

cij=Mj+(1−pij) wisj.(8)c_i^j=\frac{M^j+(1-p_i^j)\,w_i}{s_j}. \tag{8}cij​=sj​Mj+(1−pij​)wi​​.(8)

The social cost of ppp is the expected makespan, the expected maximum delay over the links,

cost⁡(p)=∑a(∏ipiai)max⁡jLj(a)sj,\operatorname{cost}(p)=\sum_a\Big(\prod_i p_i^{a_i}\Big)\max_j\frac{L_j(a)}{s_j},cost(p)=a∑​(i∏​piai​​)jmax​sj​Lj​(a)​,

and opt⁡=min⁡amax⁡jLj(a)/sj\operatorname{opt}=\min_a\max_j L_j(a)/s_jopt=mina​maxj​Lj​(a)/sj​ is the optimal makespan over pure assignments. The price of anarchy is the largest ratio cost⁡(p)/opt⁡\operatorname{cost}(p)/\operatorname{opt}cost(p)/opt over instances and equilibria.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (PDF p. 6)

For two links with speeds 0<s1≤s2≤φs10<s_1\le s_2\le\varphi s_10<s1​≤s2​≤φs1​, there is an instance with positive traffic and a Nash equilibrium ppp with opt⁡>0\operatorname{opt}>0opt>0 and

cost⁡(p)=R⋅opt⁡,R=1+s2s1+s2;\operatorname{cost}(p)=R\cdot\operatorname{opt},\qquad R=1+\frac{s_2}{s_1+s_2};cost(p)=R⋅opt,R=1+s1​+s2​s2​​;

moreover R≤φR\le\varphiR≤φ on this range, and R=φR=\varphiR=φ when s2=φs1s_2=\varphi s_1s2​=φs1​.

Milestones

  1. (8): the expected delay of a pure deviation is cij=(Mj+(1−pij)wi)/sjc_i^j=(M^j+(1-p_i^j)w_i)/s_jcij​=(Mj+(1−pij​)wi​)/sj​.
  2. Support property (§2, applied with speeds): at an equilibrium each agent puts positive probability only on links minimizing cijc_i^jcij​, and its expected cost is ci=min⁡jcijc_i=\min_jc_i^jci​=minj​cij​.
  3. For s1≤s2s_1\le s_2s1​≤s2​, the probabilities p11=s12/(s2(s1+s2))p_1^1=s_1^2/(s_2(s_1+s_2))p11​=s12​/(s2​(s1​+s2​)) and p21=1−s22/(s1(s1+s2))p_2^1=1-s_2^2/(s_1(s_1+s_2))p21​=1−s22​/(s1​(s1​+s2​)) lie in [0,1][0,1][0,1] if and only if s2≤φs1s_2\le\varphi s_1s2​≤φs1​.
  4. With w1=s2w_1=s_2w1​=s2​, w2=s1w_2=s_1w2​=s1​, this profile is a Nash equilibrium.
  5. Its social cost is (s1+2s2)/(s1+s2)(s_1+2s_2)/(s_1+s_2)(s1​+2s2​)/(s1​+s2​).
  6. The instance has opt⁡=1\operatorname{opt}=1opt=1.
  7. R≤φR\le\varphiR≤φ, with equality at s2/s1=φs_2/s_1=\varphis2​/s1​=φ.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 shows that the price of anarchy of parallel links depends on the heterogeneity of the links, not only on their number: two identical links have price of anarchy 3/23/23/2 (Theorems 1 and 3 of the paper), while two links of different speeds already reach φ\varphiφ. The setting is that of related (uniformly related) machines, the model in which Czumaj and Vöcking later proved the asymptotic order of the price of anarchy for mmm links.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; this mission produces a machine-checked proof. Beyond the theorem, it yields reusable statements about mixed equilibria of load-balancing games on the published agt_games vocabulary: the closed form (8) of a pure deviation's expected cost and the support characterization of equilibria, both stated for any number of agents and links. A search of the Prove2Me catalog (October 2026) found no formalization of any part of this result.

Difficulty

The arithmetic of the instance is elementary, so the work lies in connecting the paper's computations to the definitions. The paper's notion of equilibrium quantifies over all mixed deviations, and its expected costs are sums over all mnm^nmn pure profiles; the proof reasons instead with the per-link costs cijc_i^jcij​ of (8) and the indifference of each agent between the links it uses. Turning that into a proof requires showing that an agent's expected cost is the pip_ipi​-weighted average of the cijc_i^jcij​ (linearity over independent randomization) and that the average over 222^222 outcomes reduces to the paper's four-term formula. A naive approach that checks only pure deviations does not give the equilibrium property directly; one must pass from pure to mixed deviations. The restriction s2≤φs1s_2\le\varphi s_1s2​≤φs1​ is not cosmetic: beyond it the second agent's probability is negative.

Formalization scope

The game is defined in WorstCaseEq.Speeds.Model on top of the published agt_games definitions (AGT.IsMixedNash, AGT.expectedPayoff, AGT.profileProb). These maximize payoffs, so an agent's payoff is minus its delay. Agents and links are Fin n and Fin m, indexed from 000, so the paper's links 1, 2 and agents 1, 2 are 0, 1. A mixed profile is a real matrix p i j; being a family of probability distributions is part of the Nash condition. Makespan, social cost and opt require at least one link (NeZero m).

The paper does not print the social cost for links with speeds; the computation in the proof of Theorem 4 uses the expected maximum of load divided by speed, and that is the definition. It is not the maximum of the expected loads, a smaller quantity. The page numbers cited are PDF page indices of the journal version (dated April 29, 2009), which prints no page numbers after page 1.

"The price of anarchy is at least RRR" is formalized as the existence of an instance and an equilibrium whose social cost equals RRR times a positive optimum. A quotient cost⁡/opt⁡\operatorname{cost}/\operatorname{opt}cost/opt is avoided because it takes the junk value 000 when opt⁡=0\operatorname{opt}=0opt=0, and the requirement opt⁡>0\operatorname{opt}>0opt>0 rules out degenerate witnesses with no traffic. The ratio conditions s2/s1≤φs_2/s_1\le\varphis2​/s1​≤φ and s2/s1=φs_2/s_1=\varphis2​/s1​=φ are written s2≤φs1s_2\le\varphi s_1s2​≤φs1​ and s2=φs1s_2=\varphi s_1s2​=φs1​ (equivalent since s1>0s_1>0s1​>0), and φ\varphiφ is Mathlib's Real.goldenRatio.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone. Milestones 1 and 2 are general facts about mixed equilibria of weighted load-balancing games and are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • E. Koutsoupias and C. Papadimitriou, Worst-case equilibria, STACS 1999, LNCS 1563, pp. 404–413, doi:10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38; journal version, Computer Science Review 3(2), 2009, pp. 65–69, doi:10.1016/j.cosrev.2009.04.003.
  • A. Czumaj and B. Vöcking, Tight bounds for worst-case equilibria, ACM Transactions on Algorithms 3(1), 2007, doi:10.1145/1186810.1186814.
  • N. Nisan, T. Roughgarden, É. Tardos and V. Vazirani (eds.), Algorithmic Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2007, Chapter 20, doi:10.1017/CBO9780511800481.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Equilibria I: On Two Identical Parallel Links Every Mixed Nash Equilibrium Has Expected Makespan at Most 3/2 Times the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

When many users share a network and each routes its own traffic selfishly, the outcome is a Nash equilibrium rather than a centrally optimized assignment. Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou, in Worst-case equilibria (STACS 1999; journal version 2009), proposed to measure the loss caused by this lack of coordination by the worst-case ratio between the social cost of an equilibrium and the social optimum. The ratio, first called the coordination ratio and now the price of anarchy, became a central quantity of algorithmic game theory, studied for routing, scheduling, congestion games, auctions and network design.

The paper analyses the simplest setting in which the question is nontrivial: agents sending traffic over parallel links, which is the same as scheduling independent jobs on parallel machines with the jobs choosing their machines. For two identical links it determines the price of anarchy exactly.

Timeline.

  • 1999: Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou introduce the model and the measure; on two identical links the price of anarchy is 3/23/23/2, and on mmm identical links it is Ω(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)\Omega(\log m/\log\log m)Ω(logm/loglogm), with a nonmatching upper bound in the conference version.
  • 2002: Czumaj and Vöcking, and independently Koutsoupias, Mavronicolas and Spirakis, show that this lower bound is tight for mmm identical links, Θ(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)\Theta(\log m/\log\log m)Θ(logm/loglogm); Czumaj and Vöcking also give tight bounds for links of different speeds.

Setting

There are nnn agents and mmm identical parallel links. Agent iii has an amount of traffic wi>0w_i>0wi​>0 to send over one link. A pure profile s=(j1,…,jn)∈{1,…,m}ns=(j_1,\dots,j_n)\in\{1,\dots,m\}^ns=(j1​,…,jn​)∈{1,…,m}n assigns a link to each agent; the load of link jjj is ℓj(s)=∑k: jk=jwk\ell_j(s)=\sum_{k:\,j_k=j}w_kℓj​(s)=∑k:jk​=j​wk​, and the cost of agent iii is ℓji(s)\ell_{j_i}(s)ℓji​​(s), the traffic on its own link.

A mixed strategy of agent iii is a probability distribution (pi1,…,pim)(p_i^1,\dots,p_i^m)(pi1​,…,pim​) on the links; the agents randomize independently, so sss occurs with probability ∏ipiji\prod_i p_i^{j_i}∏i​piji​​. The cost to agent iii of a mixed profile ppp is its expected cost cic_ici​. The profile ppp is a Nash equilibrium if no agent can lower its expected cost by changing its own distribution while the others keep theirs.

The expected traffic on link jjj is Mj=∑ipijwiM^j=\sum_i p_i^jw_iMj=∑i​pij​wi​, and the cost of agent iii when its traffic is assigned to link jjj is cij=wi+∑k≠ipkjwk=Mj+(1−pij)wic_i^j=w_i+\sum_{k\ne i}p_k^jw_k=M^j+(1-p_i^j)w_icij​=wi​+∑k=i​pkj​wk​=Mj+(1−pij​)wi​.

The social cost of ppp is the expected maximum load,

cost=∑j1=1m⋯∑jn=1m∏i=1npiji max⁡j∑k: jk=jwk,\mathrm{cost}=\sum_{j_1=1}^m\cdots\sum_{j_n=1}^m\prod_{i=1}^n p_i^{j_i}\,\max_{j}\sum_{k:\,j_k=j}w_k ,cost=j1​=1∑m​⋯jn​=1∑m​i=1∏n​piji​​jmax​k:jk​=j∑​wk​,

and the social optimum opt\mathrm{opt}opt is the least maximum load over all pure assignments, the optimum of the mmm-way partition problem for w1,…,wnw_1,\dots,w_nw1​,…,wn​.

The proof of the main theorem uses two further quantities: the contribution probability qiq_iqi​, the probability that agent iii is on the (lexicographically first) link of maximum load, and the collision probability tik=∑jpijpkjt_{ik}=\sum_jp_i^jp_k^jtik​=∑j​pij​pkj​ of agents iii and kkk.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For any number nnn of agents with positive traffics and m=2m=2m=2 identical links, every Nash equilibrium ppp satisfies

cost(p) ≤ 32 opt.\mathrm{cost}(p)\ \le\ \frac32\,\mathrm{opt}.cost(p) ≤ 23​opt.

Milestones

In the order the proof of Theorem 3 uses them:

  1. Equation (2): cij=wi+∑k≠ipkjwk=Mj+(1−pij)wic_i^j=w_i+\sum_{k\ne i}p_k^jw_k=M^j+(1-p_i^j)w_icij​=wi​+∑k=i​pkj​wk​=Mj+(1−pij​)wi​ for every mixed profile.
  2. The support property: at an equilibrium agent iii uses only links minimizing cijc_i^jcij​, and ci=min⁡jcijc_i=\min_jc_i^jci​=minj​cij​.
  3. The lower bounds opt≥max⁡{wi, ∑kwk/m}\mathrm{opt}\ge\max\{w_i,\ \sum_kw_k/m\}opt≥max{wi​, ∑k​wk​/m}.
  4. Theorem 2 with (6): at every equilibrium on mmm identical links,
ci ≤ ∑kwkm+m−1m wi ≤ (2−1m)opt.c_i\ \le\ \frac{\sum_kw_k}{m}+\frac{m-1}{m}\,w_i\ \le\ \Big(2-\frac1m\Big)\mathrm{opt}.ci​ ≤ m∑k​wk​​+mm−1​wi​ ≤ (2−m1​)opt.
  1. cost=∑iqiwi\mathrm{cost}=\sum_iq_iw_icost=∑i​qi​wi​.
  2. Inequality (7): qi+qk≤1+tikq_i+q_k\le1+t_{ik}qi​+qk​≤1+tik​ for distinct agents i,ki,ki,k.
  3. ci=wi+∑k≠itikwkc_i=w_i+\sum_{k\ne i}t_{ik}w_kci​=wi​+∑k=i​tik​wk​.
  4. On two links, at every equilibrium, ∑k≠iqkwk≤(32−qi)∑k≠iwk\sum_{k\ne i}q_kw_k\le\big(\tfrac32-q_i\big)\sum_{k\ne i}w_k∑k=i​qk​wk​≤(23​−qi​)∑k=i​wk​.

Companion items

The second sentence of Theorem 1 (on two links some equilibrium has cost=32 opt>0\mathrm{cost}=\tfrac32\,\mathrm{opt}>0cost=23​opt>0), which shows the goal is tight, and the fact from its proof that the uniform profile pij=1/mp_i^j=1/mpij​=1/m of mmm unit agents on mmm links is an equilibrium.

Significance

Theorem 3 and the instance of Theorem 1 show that on two identical links selfish randomized routing never costs more than 50%50\%50% above the optimum, whatever the number of agents and their traffics, and that this factor is attained. Theorem 2 gives a per-agent guarantee for any number of links: the expected cost an individual agent experiences at any equilibrium is within 2−1/m2-1/m2−1/m of the optimum, the same factor as Graham's list-scheduling bound. Together they separate the individual and the social view: individual costs stay within a constant, while the expected maximum load, the social cost, can be a factor Ω(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)\Omega(\log m/\log\log m)Ω(logm/loglogm) above the optimum.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known they have not been machine-checked. Formalizing them produces a verified model of mixed equilibria in load balancing games, with the social cost as an expected maximum over the product distribution, which is the starting point of the later literature on links with speeds, on general congestion games and on smoothness arguments. The intermediate identities (the contribution and collision probabilities) are reusable for any expected-maximum bound over independent random assignments.

Difficulty

The social cost is an expectation of a maximum over mnm^nmn outcomes, and the equilibrium probabilities are given only implicitly, as the solution of a linear system determined by the agents' supports. The natural first idea, to bound the expected maximum load by the maximum expected load max⁡jMj\max_jM^jmaxj​Mj, fails: the expected maximum can be much larger, and bounding it is exactly what makes the problem hard (for mmm links it grows like the maximum occupancy of mmm balls in mmm bins). Computing the equilibrium probabilities explicitly does not help either; the paper gives them for two links and notes it does not see how to use them to bound the social cost. The argument has to relate the per-agent expected costs, which the equilibrium condition controls, to the expected maximum, which it does not control directly.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n and links Fin m (the goal uses Fin 2); the paper's agent iii and link jjj are indices i−1i-1i−1, j−1j-1j−1. A mixed profile is p : Fin n → Fin m → ℝ with p i j =pij=p_i^j=pij​. The game is built on the published definitions agt_games (AGT.IsMixedNash, AGT.expectedPayoff, AGT.profileProb). That vocabulary maximizes payoffs, so the payoff of an agent is minus the load of its link, and the expected cost is minus the expected payoff. The equilibrium is the full mixed Nash condition, including that each pip_ipi​ is a probability distribution; the support description is a milestone, not the definition. The social cost is the expected maximum load over the product distribution, never the maximum expected load. opt\mathrm{opt}opt is a minimum over pure assignments, with the number of links an explicit argument. The lexicographically first maximum link is the lowest-indexed link of maximum load.

Traffics are positive, as in the paper's model; some milestones need only nonnegative traffics or no sign condition, and say so. Statements over mmm links assume m≥1m\ge1m≥1. Price-of-anarchy statements are inequalities cost≤c⋅opt\mathrm{cost}\le c\cdot\mathrm{opt}cost≤c⋅opt for every equilibrium, never a quotient cost/opt\mathrm{cost}/\mathrm{opt}cost/opt, whose value at opt=0\mathrm{opt}=0opt=0 would be a junk 000. A formalization in which the social cost is max⁡jMj\max_jM^jmaxj​Mj, or in which the equilibrium is only a support condition without the requirement that the pip_ipi​ be distributions, would trivialize or falsify the goal and is ruled out by these definitions.

A complete development needs finite sums over the mnm^nmn pure profiles, marginalization of product distributions, and the case analysis of the final step. The marginalization lemmas (summing out the other agents, collision probabilities of independent choices) are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, alternative arguments for Theorem 3, and a proof of Theorem 2 for its own sake are all welcome.

Page numbers are those of the PDF file of the journal version; it prints a page number only on its first page.

Selected references

  • E. Koutsoupias and C. Papadimitriou, Worst-case equilibria, STACS 1999, LNCS 1563, pp. 404–413. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38 (this mission cites the authors' journal version of 2009, Computer Science Review 3(2), 65–69, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosrev.2009.04.003)
  • A. Czumaj and B. Vöcking, Tight bounds for worst-case equilibria, SODA 2002, pp. 413–420; ACM Transactions on Algorithms 3(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1145/1186810.1186814
  • E. Koutsoupias, M. Mavronicolas and P. Spirakis, Approximate equilibria and ball fusion, Theory of Computing Systems 36, 683–693, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00224-003-1131-5
  • R. L. Graham, Bounds on multiprocessing timing anomalies, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 17(2), 416–429, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1137/0117039
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AnalysisHarmonic Analysis·Captain: mikedeng1

Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 4: For Convex Φ of Moderate Growth, EΦ(f*) and EΦ(S(f)) Are Comparable for Every MartingaleResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale inequalities compare what a fluctuating process does along a path with how large its successive increments are. Such estimates are used in probability and harmonic analysis because a martingale can represent information revealed step by step, while its square function measures accumulated fluctuation. In his 1973 Wald Memorial Lectures, Burkholder developed distribution function inequalities that cover many choices of size measure at once, extending the power norm comparisons treated earlier in the paper. Burkholder, 1973

The target of this mission is Theorem 15.1 of that paper: a two sided comparison for every convex function of moderate growth. The paper attributes the decomposition of a martingale into small and large jumps to Davis, and cites a convex comparison lemma introduced in earlier work and subsequently treated by Garsia and Neveu. These attributions matter to the scope of the mission: the decomposition and lemma are separate, named milestones, while Burkholder's printed two sided inequality is the goal. Burkholder, 1973, §§14–16

Setting

Work on a probability space (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P) with an increasing sequence of sub sigma fields A0,A1,…\mathcal A_0,\mathcal A_1,\ldotsA0​,A1​,…. A real martingale f=(f1,f2,…)f=(f_1,f_2,\ldots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) is observed from time 111 onward. Following the paper, put f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 in the formulas for its differences: d1=f1d_1=f_1d1​=f1​ and dk=fk−fk−1d_k=f_k-f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ for k≥2k\ge2k≥2. This convention differs from the index zero value required for a Lean martingale, which is discussed below.

The square function S(f)S(f)S(f) and maximal function f∗f^*f∗ are pathwise quantities:

S(f)=(∑k=1∞dk2)1/2,f∗=sup⁡k≥1∣fk∣.S(f)=\left(\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}d_k^2\right)^{1/2}, \qquad f^*=\sup_{k\ge1}|f_k|.S(f)=(k=1∑∞​dk2​)1/2,f∗=k≥1sup​∣fk​∣.

Either quantity can be infinite. Their finite versions stop at nnn: Sn(f)S_n(f)Sn​(f) sums the first nnn squared differences, and fn∗f_n^*fn∗​ takes the maximum through time nnn. For a positive exponent ppp, the paper writes ∥f∥p=sup⁡n≥1(E∣fn∣p)1/p\|f\|_p=\sup_{n\ge1}(E|f_n|^p)^{1/p}∥f∥p​=supn≥1​(E∣fn​∣p)1/p. The notation EΦ(Y)E\Phi(Y)EΦ(Y) means the expectation of a nonnegative transform of a nonnegative random variable YYY.

A function of moderate growth is a nondecreasing continuous Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞]\Phi:[0,\infty]\to[0,\infty]Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞] with Φ(0)=0\Phi(0)=0Φ(0)=0 and

Φ(2x)≤c(6.1)Φ(x)(x>0)\Phi(2x)\le c_{(6.1)}\Phi(x)\qquad(x>0)Φ(2x)≤c(6.1)​Φ(x)(x>0)

for some nonnegative growth constant c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​. The target adds convexity on finite nonnegative arguments. The examples Φ(x)=x\Phi(x)=xΦ(x)=x and Φ(x)=xp\Phi(x)=x^pΦ(x)=xp for p≥1p\ge1p≥1 satisfy these conditions. The paper sets aside Φ≡0\Phi\equiv0Φ≡0 as trivial; the Lean statements allow it because every displayed comparison still holds.

Formalization targets

The two sided convex comparison

The goal is precisely the form printed as Theorem 15.1:

C1EΦ(S(f))≤EΦ(f∗)≤C2EΦ(S(f)),C1,C2>0.C_1 E\Phi(S(f))\le E\Phi(f^*)\le C_2 E\Phi(S(f)), \qquad C_1,C_2>0.C1​EΦ(S(f))≤EΦ(f∗)≤C2​EΦ(S(f)),C1​,C2​>0.

The constants depend only on c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​, and are uniform over the probability space, filtration, martingale, and particular choice of Φ\PhiΦ with that growth bound. The statement includes both sides; the paper writes a proof for the right side and says the left side follows by the same pattern. No integrability or boundedness is imposed on fff or on the two expectations. Burkholder, 1973, Theorem 15.1, pp. 33–34

Supporting statements

The milestones record the paper's good λ\lambdaλ lemma, Doob's cited maximal estimate, the predictable jump inequalities of §12, the quasi subadditivity of Φ\PhiΦ, Davis's decomposition and its jump bounds, and the convexity lemma of §16. The latter compares a sum of nonnegative random variables with the sum of their conditional expectations. Its two Neveu statements are retained as cited intermediate targets. These results identify distinct mathematical interfaces that a solver can formalize and reuse; the milestone text is transcribed from the indicated pages of the article.

Significance

The theorem lets one replace the expected convex transform of a path's maximum by the expected transform of its quadratic fluctuation, up to constants controlled by a single growth parameter. Choosing Φ(x)=x\Phi(x)=xΦ(x)=x recovers the L1L^1L1 comparison displayed after Davis's decomposition; choosing a convex power gives the p≥1p\ge1p≥1 power cases. The assertion is useful even when one or both expectations are infinite, because it gives a uniform relation across the whole class of admissible martingales and functions. Burkholder, 1973, §§14–15

The result is proved in the paper. This mission asks for a machine checked Lean proof of the known theorem and of the selected statements that support it. The definitions for square and maximal functions, moderate growth, and nonnegative conditional projections can be reused in other martingale comparisons. A previously posed platform theorem about Robbins–Monro noise sums has the shape of one power function instance, but its process and time window differ; it does not supply this general result.

Difficulty

The size of a single martingale increment can dominate both a maximum and a square function. A direct comparison of the two pathwise expressions therefore gives no uniform expectation bound for arbitrary martingales and convex Φ\PhiΦ. The §12 estimates require predictable control of jumps, while the target has no such hypothesis. Davis's decomposition exposes the small and large jump contributions as different objects, and the §16 convexity lemma is needed to compare the conditional terms arising from large jumps. Convexity is essential for that lemma and for Theorem 15.1; the §12 good λ\lambdaλ statements themselves assume only moderate growth. Burkholder, 1973, §§12, 14–16

Formalization scope

Lean uses Mathlib's Martingale f ℱ P for a process indexed by natural numbers. The article begins at 111 and uses f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 only in its difference formulas. The definitions of dkd_kdk​, S(f)S(f)S(f), f∗f^*f∗, and ∥f∥p\|f\|_p∥f∥p​ therefore read positive indices and insert zero in the article's formulas; Lean's actual f(0)f(0)f(0) is the compatible conditional expectation extension needed by Mathlib. Davis's partial sums also begin at 111, and the decomposition theorem specifies the index zero extensions for its two martingales.

The square function, maximal function, LpL^pLp norm, and all nonnegative expectations take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. This retains unbounded sample paths and nonintegrable expectations. For a nonnegative variable zkz_kzk​, E(zk∣Ak−1)E(z_k\mid\mathcal A_{k-1})E(zk​∣Ak−1​) is the extended conditional expectation condLExp, so a nonintegrable zkz_kzk​ cannot silently become zero. Davis's signed yky_kyk​ is integrable, so its real conditional expectation uses Mathlib's ordinary conditional expectation. Predictable bounds such as ∣dk∣≤wk|d_k|\le w_k∣dk​∣≤wk​ and the resulting claims are stated almost everywhere at each positive index.

The Lean predicate for moderate growth states the doubling law at zero and infinity as well as positive finite xxx; zero is automatic from Φ(0)=0\Phi(0)=0Φ(0)=0, and the endpoint at infinity follows by continuity in the nontrivial case. Convexity is read from finite real arguments. The zero function is included. A valid formalization must retain both inequalities in the goal and choose its constants before the martingale and Φ\PhiΦ; choosing constants after the data would make the goal much weaker.

The development needs finite and infinite square function sums, maximal functions, stopping and tail events, Mathlib martingales, conditional expectations, and convexity on the nonnegative reals. Contributions proving or improving any of the named milestones are welcome, including independent proofs of the cited Doob and Neveu statements. No extra boundedness or integrability assumption should be inserted into the goal to simplify a proof.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 1(1), 1973, pp. 19–42. DOI.
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Graph TheoryMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Geometric Bounds for Eigenvalues of Markov Chains 1: Poincaré Inequality β₁ ≤ 1 − 1/κ for Reversible Chains via Path Lengths |γ_xy|_QResearch Paper

Motivation

The rate at which a finite Markov chain approaches equilibrium depends on its eigenvalues. For a reversible chain, an upper bound on the second largest eigenvalue gives a lower bound on the spectral gap, which is one of the quantities used to study relaxation toward stationarity. Diaconis and Stroock asked how to estimate this eigenvalue using the geometry of transitions rather than computing the whole spectrum. Their 1991 paper gives an answer in terms of paths through the graph of positive transitions, and compares it with other geometric estimates Diaconis and Stroock, 1991.

This mission covers the first estimate in that paper, Proposition 1, together with the alternative parameter of Proposition 1′ and the random-walk specialization in Corollary 1. These results are known mathematical theorems. The work here is to state their exact finite, reversible setting in Lean and make their formal proofs available as reusable spectral estimates. The paper's examples show why the path selection matters: two choices for the same chain can give substantially different bounds Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, §2.

Setting

Let XXX be a finite state space and let P(x,y)P(x,y)P(x,y) be the transition probability from xxx to yyy. Assume that PPP is irreducible and reversible with respect to a stationary probability distribution π\piπ. The edge measure is Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x)Q(x,y)=\pi(x)P(x,y)=\pi(y)P(y,x)Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x). Thus Q(x,y)>0Q(x,y)>0Q(x,y)>0 identifies an available edge of the transition graph. Because the chain is irreducible, every state has positive stationary mass and distinct states can be connected by such edges Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, §1A–B.

For each ordered pair of distinct states x,yx,yx,y, choose a path γxy\gamma_{xy}γxy​ from xxx to yyy. A path may revisit a vertex, but cannot use an unordered edge twice. Write Γ\GammaΓ for the whole choice of paths. The weighted path length is ∣γxy∣Q=∑e∈γxyQ(e)−1|\gamma_{xy}|_Q=\sum_{e\in\gamma_{xy}}Q(e)^{-1}∣γxy​∣Q​=∑e∈γxy​​Q(e)−1. Here a traversal has an orientation, and e∈γxye\in\gamma_{xy}e∈γxy​ in the congestion formula means that the path traverses the directed edge eee in that orientation. The congestion parameter of (1.5) is

κ(Γ)=max⁡e∑γxy∋e∣γxy∣Q π(x)π(y),\kappa(\Gamma)=\max_{e}\sum_{\gamma_{xy}\ni e}|\gamma_{xy}|_Q\,\pi(x)\pi(y),κ(Γ)=emax​γxy​∋e∑​∣γxy​∣Q​π(x)π(y),

with the maximum over directed edges for which Q(e)>0Q(e)>0Q(e)>0. The paper also defines K(Γ)=max⁡eQ(e)−1∑γxy∋e∣γxy∣π(x)π(y)K(\Gamma)=\max_e Q(e)^{-1}\sum_{\gamma_{xy}\ni e}|\gamma_{xy}|\pi(x)\pi(y)K(Γ)=maxe​Q(e)−1∑γxy​∋e​∣γxy​∣π(x)π(y), where ∣γxy∣|\gamma_{xy}|∣γxy​∣ is the ordinary number of edges Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, pp. 37–38.

The variance of a real function ϕ\phiϕ is Var⁡π(ϕ)=∑x(ϕ(x)−∑zϕ(z)π(z))2π(x)\operatorname{Var}_\pi(\phi)=\sum_x(\phi(x)-\sum_z\phi(z)\pi(z))^2\pi(x)Varπ​(ϕ)=∑x​(ϕ(x)−∑z​ϕ(z)π(z))2π(x). Its Dirichlet energy is EP(ϕ,ϕ)=12∑x,y(ϕ(x)−ϕ(y))2Q(x,y)\mathcal E_P(\phi,\phi)=\frac12\sum_{x,y}(\phi(x)-\phi(y))^2Q(x,y)EP​(ϕ,ϕ)=21​∑x,y​(ϕ(x)−ϕ(y))2Q(x,y). If ∣X∣≥2|X|\ge2∣X∣≥2, let β1\beta_1β1​ denote the second largest real eigenvalue of PPP, below the simple eigenvalue 111 Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, pp. 36–37.

Formalization targets

Proposition 1: the path bound

For every admissible path system Γ\GammaΓ,

β1≤1−1κ(Γ).\beta_1\le 1-\frac{1}{\kappa(\Gamma)}.β1​≤1−κ(Γ)1​.

The mission's milestones are the pairwise expression for variance, the paper's per-path Cauchy–Schwarz inequality, the resulting Var⁡π(ϕ)≤κ(Γ)EP(ϕ,ϕ)\operatorname{Var}_\pi(\phi)\le\kappa(\Gamma)\mathcal E_P(\phi,\phi)Varπ​(ϕ)≤κ(Γ)EP​(ϕ,ϕ), and the variational characterization (1.2) of the spectral gap. The last is the proved theorem MarkovMixing.dirichlet_gap, which states (1.2) for centered functions of unit squared norm, a normalization under which the ratio in (1.2) is unchanged, and adds that the infimum is attained Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, pp. 37–38.

Companion estimates

Proposition 1′ states β1≤1−1/K(Γ)\beta_1\le1-1/K(\Gamma)β1​≤1−1/K(Γ) using the alternative congestion parameter. For a connected simple graph G=(X,E)G=(X,E)G=(X,E), Corollary 1 specializes Proposition 1 to simple random walk, with stationary distribution π(x)=d(x)/(2∣E∣)\pi(x)=d(x)/(2|E|)π(x)=d(x)/(2∣E∣). If d∗=max⁡xd(x)d_*=\max_x d(x)d∗​=maxx​d(x), γ∗\gamma_*γ∗​ is the maximum number of edges in a chosen path, and bbb is the maximum number of selected paths traversing a directed edge, its bound is

β1≤1−2∣E∣d∗2γ∗b.\beta_1\le1-\frac{2|E|}{d_*^2\gamma_*b}.β1​≤1−d∗2​γ∗​b2∣E∣​.

The paper states Proposition 1′ without a separate proof and derives Corollary 1 from the graph's transition probabilities Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, pp. 38–39.

Significance

The result converts information about a path family into a numerical spectral-gap estimate. This lets a solver analyze a chain through its transition graph when an exact diagonalization is inconvenient. The graph corollary makes the quantities especially concrete: number of edges, maximum degree, longest selected path, and how many selected paths share an edge. Such estimates are one ingredient in quantitative convergence bounds for reversible chains Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, §§1D, 2.

The finite-chain vocabulary for stochasticity, stationarity, reversibility, eigenvalues, variance, and Dirichlet energy is already published in the MarkovMixing layer. The mission adds the paper's edge-simple path system and its two congestion parameters, then formalizes the source's statements against that vocabulary. The path definitions and pairwise variance identity can be reused in other canonical-path arguments; the three claims from pp. 37–39 still need machine-checked proofs in this mission. The variational spectral-gap theorem used as a milestone is already proved on Prove2Me Levin, Peres and Wilmer, 2009, §13.3.

Difficulty

The challenge is to account for each selected path without changing the congestion constant. Paths are indexed by ordered endpoints, edges in the maximum are directed, and the paper permits repeated vertices while forbidding repeated edges. Counting traversals with the wrong orientation, or allowing an edge to repeat, changes the parameter that appears in the final bound. The graph case also depends on keeping the number of paths through an edge separate from path length; replacing either with a coarser graph quantity would give a different theorem Diaconis and Stroock, 1991, §1B.

Formalization scope

The state space is a finite Lean type, PPP is a real matrix, and π\piπ is a real-valued probability vector. A path is a list of vertices. Its traversed directed edges are successive vertex pairs; the edge-simple rule compares those pairs as unordered edges. One path is chosen for each ordered pair x≠yx\ne yx=y, and values of Γ(x,x)\Gamma(x,x)Γ(x,x) never enter the formulas. The maximum over positive directed edges is implemented as a real supremum over a finite subtype. On an empty index set that expression has Lean's default value zero; irreducibility and ∣X∣≥2|X|\ge2∣X∣≥2 exclude this case in the eigenvalue results.

The standing assumptions are stochasticity, irreducibility, stationarity, and detailed balance. The goal and its companion eigenvalue estimates also require ∣X∣≥2|X|\ge2∣X∣≥2 because the second largest eigenvalue is undefined for a one-state chain. The variance identity needs only a probability distribution, while the per-path estimate uses only a positive-edge walk. The graph corollary assumes connectedness and at least two vertices; it derives the chain properties from the graph as the paper does. The mission does not assume the desired Poincaré inequality or the spectral conclusion as hypotheses.

The main proof obligations concern the pathwise inequality, the finite reindexing that produces the paper's exact κ\kappaκ, and the eigenvalue bound. Contributions that establish those claims, the graph specialization, or the alternative KKK estimate fit the stated scope. The shared Markov-chain definitions and the path vocabulary are intended to support later results of the same paper.

Selected references

  • Persi Diaconis and Daniel Stroock, Geometric Bounds for Eigenvalues of Markov Chains, Annals of Applied Probability 1(1), 1991, pp. 36–61. DOI.
  • David A. Levin, Yuval Peres and Elizabeth L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009, Chapters 12–13. Text.
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Functional AnalysisMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Logarithmic Sobolev Inequalities for Finite Markov Chains 1: Chi-Square Distance ‖h_t^x − 1‖₂ ≤ e^{1−c} at t = (2α)⁻¹ log log(1/π(x)) + c/λResearch Paper

Motivation

A finite Markov chain repeatedly applies a transition rule to move among a finite set of states. Its stationary distribution is a probability law that the transition rule leaves unchanged. For algorithms that sample from a target distribution, and for random walks used to model a system, a central question is how long a chain started from one state takes to resemble its stationary law. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste study how a logarithmic Sobolev inequality controls this approach to equilibrium. Their paper develops finite-chain functional inequalities and applies them to mixing bounds, product chains, and concrete walks. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996.

Theorem 3.7 gives a starting-state bound in a weighted quadratic distance. Its dependence on the initial state's stationary mass is a double logarithm, while the final convergence term is governed by the spectral gap. This separates two effects: reaching a distribution that is no longer sharply concentrated, and then reducing its remaining deviation from stationarity. The paper also distinguishes general chains from reversible ones, with different constants in the first time scale. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 719 and 723–724.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite state space. A transition matrix KKK assigns nonnegative numbers K(x,y)K(x,y)K(x,y) whose sum over yyy is one for every xxx. A probability vector π\piπ is stationary when ∑xπ(x)K(x,y)=π(y)\sum_x\pi(x)K(x,y)=\pi(y)∑x​π(x)K(x,y)=π(y) for every yyy; here every π(y)\pi(y)π(y) is strictly positive. The chain is irreducible when every state can reach every other state in some finite number of steps. It is reversible when π(x)K(x,y)=π(y)K(y,x)\pi(x)K(x,y)=\pi(y)K(y,x)π(x)K(x,y)=π(y)K(y,x) for all states x,yx,yx,y. These conditions are the paper's standing finite-chain setting. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 700–702 and 714.

For a real function fff on VVV, write Eπf=∑xf(x)π(x)E_\pi f=\sum_x f(x)\pi(x)Eπ​f=∑x​f(x)π(x) and Var⁡π(f)=∑x(f(x)−Eπf)2π(x)\operatorname{Var}_\pi(f)=\sum_x(f(x)-E_\pi f)^2\pi(x)Varπ​(f)=∑x​(f(x)−Eπ​f)2π(x). Its weighted ppp-norm is ∥f∥p=(∑x∣f(x)∣pπ(x))1/p\|f\|_p=(\sum_x|f(x)|^p\pi(x))^{1/p}∥f∥p​=(∑x​∣f(x)∣pπ(x))1/p. The Dirichlet form used here is the ordered bilinear expression E(f,g)=∑x(f(x)−(Kf)(x))g(x)π(x)\mathcal E(f,g)=\sum_x(f(x)-(Kf)(x))g(x)\pi(x)E(f,g)=∑x​(f(x)−(Kf)(x))g(x)π(x). It is generally not symmetric for a nonreversible chain. The spectral gap is the variational quantity λ=inf⁡Var⁡π(f)≠0E(f,f)/Var⁡π(f)\lambda=\inf_{\operatorname{Var}_\pi(f)\ne0}\mathcal E(f,f)/\operatorname{Var}_\pi(f)λ=infVarπ​(f)=0​E(f,f)/Varπ​(f). The log-Sobolev constant is α=inf⁡L(f)≠0E(f,f)/L(f)\alpha=\inf_{\mathcal L(f)\ne0}\mathcal E(f,f)/\mathcal L(f)α=infL(f)=0​E(f,f)/L(f), where L(f)=∑x∣f(x)∣2log⁡(∣f(x)∣2/∥f∥22)π(x)\mathcal L(f)=\sum_x |f(x)|^2\log(|f(x)|^2/\|f\|_2^2)\pi(x)L(f)=∑x​∣f(x)∣2log(∣f(x)∣2/∥f∥22​)π(x). Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 701, 705–706, 714.

The continuous-time heat kernel Ht=e−t(I−K)H_t=e^{-t(I-K)}Ht​=e−t(I−K) averages all discrete step counts with Poisson weights. If the chain starts at xxx, then Ht(x,y)H_t(x,y)Ht​(x,y) is the probability of being at yyy at time ttt. Its density relative to stationarity is htx(y)=Ht(x,y)/π(y)h_t^x(y)=H_t(x,y)/\pi(y)htx​(y)=Ht​(x,y)/π(y). Thus ∥htx−1∥2\|h_t^x-1\|_2∥htx​−1∥2​ measures the weighted quadratic deviation of the time-ttt law from π\piπ. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, p. 702.

Formalization targets

Spectral decay and hypercontractivity

The milestones include the L2L^2L2 spectral-gap decay of Lemma 2.4, the heat-flow moment identity of Lemma 2.5, the power inequalities of Lemma 2.6, and the derivative formula (3.2). The two hypercontractivity clauses of Theorem 3.5 state that ∥Htf∥q≤∥f∥2\|H_t f\|_q\le\|f\|_2∥Ht​f∥q​≤∥f∥2​ when q−1≤e2αtq-1\le e^{2\alpha t}q−1≤e2αt for a general chain, or when q−1≤e4αtq-1\le e^{4\alpha t}q−1≤e4αt for a reversible chain, with q≥2q\ge2q≥2 and t>0t>0t>0. These are separate source statements and remain separate milestones. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 706–707, 719–721.

Chi-square convergence

The goal is Theorem 3.7. For a state xxx with π(x)≤e−1\pi(x)\le e^{-1}π(x)≤e−1 and any c>0c>0c>0, it asserts

∥htx−1∥2≤e1−catt=12αlog⁡log⁡1π(x)+cλ.\|h_t^x-1\|_2\le e^{1-c} \quad\text{at}\quad t=\frac{1}{2\alpha}\log\log\frac1{\pi(x)}+\frac c\lambda.∥htx​−1∥2​≤e1−catt=2α1​loglogπ(x)1​+λc​.

For a reversible chain, the same bound holds with 1/(4α)1/(4\alpha)1/(4α) in place of 1/(2α)1/(2\alpha)1/(2α). The theorem specifies these times exactly; no broader range of times is built into the goal. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, p. 723, Theorem 3.7.

Significance

The goal turns two chain constants into an explicit convergence estimate for every eligible starting state. It provides a way to assess a chain whose initial law is a point mass, where the initial density can be large when π(x)\pi(x)π(x) is small. The reversible clause records the paper's stronger time bound under detailed balance. The preceding milestones expose the general spectral and hypercontractive results as reusable statements for other mixing questions. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 719 and 723–724.

These statements are proved in the 1996 paper; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the specified formal statements. Published finite-chain definitions for stochasticity, stationarity, irreducibility, detailed balance, weighted expectation and variance, and the heat kernel are already available. The variational gap, log-Sobolev constant, entropy functionals, and this theorem family are the remaining local formalization work. Their individual proof status on the platform can evolve independently after the proposal is launched.

Difficulty

The immediate spectral-gap estimate reduces the L2L^2L2 deviation exponentially, but by itself retains a factor tied to the size of the initial point-mass density. That gives a dependence on log⁡(1/π(x))\log(1/\pi(x))log(1/π(x)), rather than the double logarithm in Theorem 3.7. The stronger bound requires control of how the heat operator changes norms, including the distinction between reversible and nonreversible chains. A formal proof must keep the bilinear Dirichlet arguments in their printed order and handle a real exponent that varies with time. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste, 1996, pp. 706–707, 719–724.

Formalization scope

The Lean state space is a finite type, KKK is a real matrix, and π\piπ is a real-valued stationary probability vector positive at every state. Irreducibility is explicit in the Section 3 statements; reversibility is an additional premise only for the corresponding clauses. The heat kernel is the published Poissonized semigroup. The local λ\lambdaλ and α\alphaα are variational real infima, and operator norm claims are expressed as inequalities for every function. Discrete eigenvalue-based gap definitions are not substituted for the paper's λ\lambdaλ.

The goal's condition π(x)≤e−1\pi(x)\le e^{-1}π(x)≤e−1 gives a meaningful double logarithm, and irreducibility in this finite setting gives positive gap and log-Sobolev constants on every state space where the goal is applicable. The positive stationary mass makes the density quotient meaningful. Nonnegative or positive function premises follow the source's power and derivative statements; no arbitrary sign-changing real powers are used. The Lean conventions for zero logarithm terms and for real infima are documented with the definitions. This excludes trivial conclusions from totalized logarithms, division by zero, or empty variational sets.

The development invites proofs of the seven target theorems and reusable finite-state lemmas about the semigroup, weighted norms, entropy, and variational constants. The definitions remain local to this paper's mission series because the published Markov-chain substrate provides the general finite-chain model, while the variational quantities and normalization here are tied to these source statements.

Selected references

  • Persi Diaconis and Laurent Saloff-Coste, Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities for finite Markov chains, Annals of Applied Probability 6(3):695–750, 1996. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1034968224.
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