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The mathematical discipline of drawing inferences from data under uncertainty: estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and the quantification of confidence. Grounded in probability, it spans classical and Bayesian inference, experimental design, and modern high-dimensional and nonparametric theory, asking what data can reveal and with what guarantees.

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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Dantzig Selector: Statistical Estimation When p Is Much Larger than n 2: Oracle Inequality within a Logarithmic Factor of the Ideal Mean Squared ErrorResearch Paper

Motivation

Many regression problems have far more unknown coefficients ppp than observations nnn: gene expression studies with tens of samples and thousands of genes, imaging from few measurements, nonparametric curve recovery from a finite number of noisy samples. Estimation is hopeless in general, but becomes possible when the parameter is sparse, that is, has few nonzero entries. Candès and Tao (arXiv:math/0506081; Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2007, doi:10.1214/009053606000001523) proposed the Dantzig selector, an estimator computed by a single linear program, and showed that its squared error is within a logarithmic factor of what an oracle that knew which coefficients matter could achieve.

The estimator became one of the two standard ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ methods for high-dimensional regression, alongside the Lasso; the comparison of the two by Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095, 2009) is built on it. This mission targets the paper's main result, the oracle inequality (Theorem 1.2). A companion mission covers the simpler ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound for sparse parameters (Theorem 1.1).

Setting

Observations follow the linear model

y=Xβ+z,y = X\beta + z,y=Xβ+z,

where X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p is a deterministic design matrix with columns X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​, each of Euclidean norm ∥Xj∥ℓ2=1\|X_j\|_{\ell_2}=1∥Xj​∥ℓ2​​=1; β∈Rp\beta\in\mathbb R^pβ∈Rp is an unknown deterministic parameter; and z=(z1,…,zn)z=(z_1,\dots,z_n)z=(z1​,…,zn​) has independent N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) coordinates, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. The vector β\betaβ is SSS-sparse if at most SSS of its entries are nonzero.

Two constants of XXX measure how close sparse sets of columns are to being orthonormal. The restricted isometry constant δS\delta_SδS​ is the smallest δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0 such that (1−δ)∥c∥ℓ22≤∥Xc∥ℓ22≤(1+δ)∥c∥ℓ22(1-\delta)\|c\|_{\ell_2}^2\le\|Xc\|_{\ell_2}^2\le(1+\delta)\|c\|_{\ell_2}^2(1−δ)∥c∥ℓ2​2​≤∥Xc∥ℓ2​2​≤(1+δ)∥c∥ℓ2​2​ for every ccc supported on at most SSS indices. The restricted orthogonality constant θS,S′\theta_{S,S'}θS,S′​ (defined for S+S′≤pS+S'\le pS+S′≤p) is the smallest θ≥0\theta\ge0θ≥0 with ∣⟨Xc,Xc′⟩∣≤θ∥c∥ℓ2∥c′∥ℓ2|\langle Xc,Xc'\rangle|\le\theta\|c\|_{\ell_2}\|c'\|_{\ell_2}∣⟨Xc,Xc′⟩∣≤θ∥c∥ℓ2​​∥c′∥ℓ2​​ whenever c,c′c,c'c,c′ are supported on disjoint sets of sizes at most SSS and S′S'S′. Below δ:=δ2S\delta:=\delta_{2S}δ:=δ2S​ and θ:=θS,2S\theta:=\theta_{S,2S}θ:=θS,2S​.

For a tuning level λp>0\lambda_p>0λp​>0, a Dantzig selector β^\hat\betaβ^​ is any solution of

min⁡β~∈Rp∥β~∥ℓ1subject to∥X∗(y−Xβ~)∥ℓ∞=sup⁡1≤j≤p∣⟨y−Xβ~,Xj⟩∣≤λpσ.\min_{\tilde\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\|\tilde\beta\|_{\ell_1}\quad\text{subject to}\quad\|X^*(y-X\tilde\beta)\|_{\ell_\infty}=\sup_{1\le j\le p}|\langle y-X\tilde\beta,X_j\rangle|\le\lambda_p\sigma .β~​∈Rpmin​∥β~​∥ℓ1​​subject to∥X∗(y−Xβ~​)∥ℓ∞​​=1≤j≤psup​∣⟨y−Xβ~​,Xj​⟩∣≤λp​σ.

The ideal mean squared error is ∑i=1pmin⁡(βi2,σ2)\sum_{i=1}^p\min(\beta_i^2,\sigma^2)∑i=1p​min(βi2​,σ2): the risk of an oracle that keeps exactly the coordinates above the noise level.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2 (pp. 8–9)

Let t>0t>0t>0, a≥0a\ge0a≥0, and λp:=(1+a+t−1)2log⁡p\lambda_p:=(\sqrt{1+a}+t^{-1})\sqrt{2\log p}λp​:=(1+a​+t−1)2logp​. If β\betaβ is SSS-sparse and δ2S+θS,2S<1−t\delta_{2S}+\theta_{S,2S}<1-tδ2S​+θS,2S​<1−t, then with probability exceeding 1−(πlog⁡p⋅pa)−11-(\sqrt{\pi\log p}\cdot p^a)^{-1}1−(πlogp​⋅pa)−1 every Dantzig selector obeys

∥β^−β∥ℓ22≤C22⋅λp2⋅(σ2+∑i=1pmin⁡(βi2,σ2)),\|\hat\beta-\beta\|_{\ell_2}^2\le C_2^2\cdot\lambda_p^2\cdot\Big(\sigma^2+\sum_{i=1}^p\min(\beta_i^2,\sigma^2)\Big),∥β^​−β∥ℓ2​2​≤C22​⋅λp2​⋅(σ2+i=1∑p​min(βi2​,σ2)),

with the explicit constant (1.14)

C2=2C01−δ−θ+2θ(1+δ)(1−δ−θ)2+1+δ1−δ−θ,C0=22(1+1−δ21−δ−θ)+(1+12)(1+δ)21−δ−θ.C_2=\frac{2C_0}{1-\delta-\theta}+\frac{2\theta(1+\delta)}{(1-\delta-\theta)^2}+\frac{1+\delta}{1-\delta-\theta},\qquad C_0=2\sqrt2\Big(1+\frac{1-\delta^2}{1-\delta-\theta}\Big)+\Big(1+\frac1{\sqrt2}\Big)\frac{(1+\delta)^2}{1-\delta-\theta}.C2​=1−δ−θ2C0​​+(1−δ−θ)22θ(1+δ)​+1−δ−θ1+δ​,C0​=22​(1+1−δ−θ1−δ2​)+(1+2​1​)1−δ−θ(1+δ)2​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.2: ∥Xβ∥ℓ2≤1+δ (∥β∥ℓ2+(2S)−1/2∥β∥ℓ1)\|X\beta\|_{\ell_2}\le\sqrt{1+\delta}\,(\|\beta\|_{\ell_2}+(2S)^{-1/2}\|\beta\|_{\ell_1})∥Xβ∥ℓ2​​≤1+δ​(∥β∥ℓ2​​+(2S)−1/2∥β∥ℓ1​​) for every β\betaβ.
  2. Lemma A.1 (dual sparse reconstruction, ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ version): for ccc supported on ∣T∣≤2S|T|\le2S∣T∣≤2S, a vector β\betaβ on TTT whose correlations ⟨Xβ,Xj⟩\langle X\beta,X_j\rangle⟨Xβ,Xj​⟩ equal cjc_jcj​ on TTT and are small off TTT except on an exceptional set of size at most SSS, with bounds (6.1)–(6.6).
  3. Corollary A.2 (ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ version): the same without exceptional set, constants 1/(1−δ−θ)1/(1-\delta-\theta)1/(1−δ−θ).
  4. Corollary A.3 (constrained thresholding): an SSS-sparse β\betaβ with ∥β∥ℓ2<λS\|\beta\|_{\ell_2}<\lambda\sqrt S∥β∥ℓ2​​<λS​ splits as β′+β′′\beta'+\beta''β′+β′′ with β′\beta'β′ small in ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and ∥X∗Xβ′′∥ℓ∞<1−δ21−δ−θλ\|X^*X\beta''\|_{\ell_\infty}<\frac{1-\delta^2}{1-\delta-\theta}\lambda∥X∗Xβ′′∥ℓ∞​​<1−δ−θ1−δ2​λ.
  5. Gaussian tail bound (Section 3, p. 15): P(sup⁡j∣⟨z,Xj⟩∣>u)≤2p φ(u)/uP(\sup_j|\langle z,X_j\rangle|>u)\le2p\,\varphi(u)/uP(supj​∣⟨z,Xj​⟩∣>u)≤2pφ(u)/u for standard Gaussian noise.
  6. Lemma 3.1: the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ mass of hhh on T0T_0T0​ and its top SSS positions outside T0T_0T0​ is controlled by ∥XT01TXh∥ℓ2\|X^T_{T_{01}}Xh\|_{\ell_2}∥XT01​T​Xh∥ℓ2​​ and ∥h∥ℓ1(T0c)\|h\|_{\ell_1(T_0^c)}∥h∥ℓ1​(T0c​)​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1.2 says that a single linear program, which knows neither the support of β\betaβ nor which coefficients exceed the noise, matches the oracle risk ∑imin⁡(βi2,σ2)\sum_i\min(\beta_i^2,\sigma^2)∑i​min(βi2​,σ2) up to a factor O(log⁡p)O(\log p)O(logp), uniformly over SSS-sparse parameters and with explicit, nonasymptotic constants. For coefficients well below the noise level it is far sharper than the σ2Slog⁡p\sigma^2 S\log pσ2Slogp bound of Theorem 1.1. It is the template for later oracle inequalities for ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-penalized estimators under restricted isometry or restricted eigenvalue conditions.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper, but parts of the argument are only sketched: Corollary A.2 refers to the 2005 Decoding by Linear Programming paper for its convergence argument, and Corollary A.3's ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ bound is printed with a constant its own proof does not deliver. A machine-checked proof settles these steps. The restricted isometry and orthogonality constants used here are already published on the platform from the decoding series; the appendix lemmas on dual vectors are reusable for any compressed-sensing result in that framework. No formalization of the Dantzig selector's oracle inequality is known to us.

Difficulty

The natural proof compares β^\hat\betaβ^​ with the hard-thresholded parameter β(1)\beta^{(1)}β(1) that keeps only the large coefficients: if β(1)\beta^{(1)}β(1) were feasible for the Dantzig constraint, the analysis of Theorem 1.1 would apply directly. It is not feasible in general, because the small coefficients β(2)\beta^{(2)}β(2), though individually below the noise level, can add up to a large correlation X∗Xβ(2)X^*X\beta^{(2)}X∗Xβ(2). The central difficulty is to split β(2)\beta^{(2)}β(2) into a part with controlled ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm and a part invisible to the constraint; this requires constructing dual vectors with prescribed correlations (Lemma A.1, Corollary A.2), via an iterative, geometrically convergent correction. The probabilistic part is a Gaussian tail estimate plus a union bound, and the bookkeeping of constants must be carried through exactly.

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions Fin p → ℝ, the design is Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, and the noise is a family z : Fin n → Ω → ℝ of mutually independent random variables (iIndepFun) each with law gaussianReal 0 σ². δ2S\delta_{2S}δ2S​ and θS,2S\theta_{S,2S}θS,2S​ are the published CandesTao.Decoding.restrictedIsometryConst X (2*S) and restrictedOrthogonalityConst X S (2*S) (infima, absolute value in the orthogonality condition). Domain: S≥1S\ge1S≥1 and 3S≤p3S\le p3S≤p (the paper defines θS,S′\theta_{S,S'}θS,S′​ for S+S′≤pS+S'\le pS+S′≤p), which forces p≥3p\ge3p≥3 and log⁡p>0\log p>0logp>0. A Dantzig selector is any ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ minimizer over the feasible set; the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ constraint is a bound on every coordinate.

The goal bounds from above the (outer) probability of the bad event "no Dantzig selector exists, or some Dantzig selector violates (1.13)". Because the event includes non-existence, a definition no vector satisfies cannot make the theorem vacuous; and the constant C2C_2C2​ is the printed (1.14), evaluated at δ2S\delta_{2S}δ2S​, θS,2S\theta_{S,2S}θS,2S​ of XXX, not a free constant chosen after the fact.

Corrected constant: Corollary A.3 is stated with ∥β′∥ℓ1≤21+δ1−δ−θ∥β∥ℓ22/λ\|\beta'\|_{\ell_1}\le2\frac{1+\delta}{1-\delta-\theta}\|\beta\|_{\ell_2}^2/\lambda∥β′∥ℓ1​​≤21−δ−θ1+δ​∥β∥ℓ2​2​/λ, the bound its proof gives once Corollary A.2 is applied at an integer sparsity level; the printed statement omits the factor 222. Corollary A.2 carries Lemma A.1's standing hypothesis δ+θ<1\delta+\theta<1δ+θ<1. The deterministic lemmas (3.1, 3.2, A.1–A.3) assume nothing about column norms, since their statements do not need it.

Useful infrastructure: monotonicity of δS\delta_SδS​ and θS,S′\theta_{S,S'}θS,S′​ in their indices (the proof applies the lemmas at a smaller sparsity level), the Gaussian tail bound 1−Φ(u)<φ(u)/u1-\Phi(u)<\varphi(u)/u1−Φ(u)<φ(u)/u, existence of minimizers of the Dantzig linear program, and a sorting/blocking toolkit for "the SSS largest positions". Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • E. Candès and T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6):2313–2351, 2007. arXiv:math/0506081v3, doi:10.1214/009053606000001523
  • E. Candès and T. Tao, Decoding by linear programming, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 51(12):4203–4215, 2005. arXiv:math/0502327, doi:10.1109/TIT.2005.858979
  • P. Bickel, Y. Ritov and A. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4):1705–1732, 2009. arXiv:0801.1095, doi:10.1214/08-AOS620
  • D. Donoho and I. Johnstone, Ideal spatial adaptation by wavelet shrinkage, Biometrika 81(3):425–455, 1994. doi:10.1093/biomet/81.3.425
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Information TheoryQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

Shadow Tomography of Quantum States 2: Even the Classical Special Case Needs Ω(min{D, log M}/ε²) CopiesResearch Paper

Why the copy count matters

Shadow tomography asks for predictions of many specified measurements of an unknown quantum state, while using as few prepared copies of that state as possible. The requested output is a list of acceptance probabilities, not a full description of the state. A procedure might exploit the fact that these are only MMM numbers, even when the state has dimension DDD. The natural question is how far this saving can go. Aaronson's paper gives upper bounds and separates two sources of difficulty: one already present for ordinary probability distributions, and one arising from noncommuting quantum measurements.

This mission concerns the first source. It formalizes Theorem 16, which says that even when the state and every requested measurement are diagonal in the same basis, the number of copies must grow with min⁡{D,log⁡M}/ε2\min\{D,\log M\}/\varepsilon^2min{D,logM}/ε2 in the relevant asymptotic regime. In that special case, the unknown state is an ordinary distribution on DDD outcomes. The theorem therefore puts a limit on any proposed improvement to shadow tomography that would promise fewer copies in all instances.

States, measurements, and estimates

A mixed state ρ\rhoρ on a DDD-dimensional system is a positive semidefinite D×DD\times DD×D complex matrix with trace one. A two-outcome measurement is represented by an effect EEE satisfying 0⪯E⪯I0\preceq E\preceq I0⪯E⪯I; it accepts ρ\rhoρ with probability Tr⁡(Eρ)\operatorname{Tr}(E\rho)Tr(Eρ). When ρ\rhoρ is diagonal, its diagonal entries are the probabilities of the DDD basis outcomes. When EEE is diagonal too, it specifies a randomized yes-or-no test on those outcomes. These conventions are stated in Section 3 of the paper.

Given effects E1,…,EME_1,\ldots,E_ME1​,…,EM​, a shadow-tomography strategy measures kkk independent copies ρ⊗k\rho^{\otimes k}ρ⊗k and outputs estimates b1,…,bMb_1,\ldots,b_Mb1​,…,bM​. It succeeds on ρ\rhoρ when every estimate differs from Tr⁡(Eiρ)\operatorname{Tr}(E_i\rho)Tr(Ei​ρ) by at most ε\varepsilonε. The lower bound requires success probability at least 2/32/32/3 for every diagonal mixed state. The strategy may make a joint quantum measurement on all copies and may choose its estimates from its observed outcome. This is the same measurement model used in Problem 1.

Formalization targets

Classical special-case lower bound

The goal is the classical clause of Theorem 16. There are absolute constants c>0c>0c>0 and N0N_0N0​ such that, for D≥N0D\ge N_0D≥N0​, log⁡2M≥N0\log_2 M\ge N_0log2​M≥N0​, and 0<ε≤1/60<\varepsilon\le1/60<ε≤1/6, there are MMM diagonal effects with 0/1 entries, corresponding to the known Boolean functions in Section 6.1, for which every strategy successful on all diagonal states must use

k≥c min⁡{D,log⁡2M}ε2.k\ge c\,\frac{\min\{D,\log_2 M\}}{\varepsilon^2}.k≥cε2min{D,log2​M}​.

The hard measurements are chosen before the strategy is quantified. The statement therefore also rules out a strategy with a smaller copy count that works uniformly for all quantum states and measurements. Its constants and threshold express the Ω\OmegaΩ notation in Theorem 16, rather than specifying a numerical optimum.

Supporting targets

Four milestones come from the proof on pages 20–21: the high-probability overlap bound for independently chosen half-size subsets (Eq. (1)); the acceptance probability of a subset under its associated biased distribution; an upper bound on the mutual information between the hidden subset index and the observed samples; and the exact entropy formula with a quadratic entropy deficit. These statements expose the combinatorial and information-theoretic parts of the lower bound while leaving the goal as the paper's copy-complexity result.

What the result supplies

Theorem 16 sets a floor for shadow tomography that survives even when all operators commute. Any uniform copy bound for the full quantum task must respect this floor. The result also distinguishes the difficulty of predicting many properties of a distribution from the extra difficulty possible for noncommuting states and measurements, which the paper treats in a separate lower bound. Section 6 presents both bounds.

A complete formalization would give machine-checked statements and proofs for the finite subset construction, the entropy calculation, the information inequality, and the reduction from a successful quantum measurement procedure on diagonal states to a lower bound on kkk. The theorem is proved on paper; these draft statements are open Lean goals and do not claim that its proof has been machine checked. The finite-distribution and information-theory infrastructure is reusable for other lower bounds based on hidden-index families.

Where the argument is delicate

Counting how many possible measurements there are does not by itself show that samples reveal enough about which distribution generated them. The lower bound needs a quantitative relation between estimation accuracy and information about a hidden index, while each individual sample carries limited information. The paper's printed overlap condition (1) is too weak for the next displayed ε/2\varepsilon/2ε/2 estimate: at its boundary it gives ε\varepsilonε. The milestone preserves Eq. (1) as printed; closing the goal requires the correspondingly sharper overlap fact with N/24N/24N/24, which follows from the same type of concentration statement after adjusting its constant. The printed assertion that learning the index requires mutual information at least log⁡2K\log_2 Klog2​K is also imprecise at success probability 2/32/32/3; a quantitative decoding inequality is needed. Neither incorrect display is a draft milestone.

Formalization scope

Matrices are indexed by Fin D. WildeQIT.IsDensityOperator supplies the mixed-state predicate ρ⪰0\rho\succeq0ρ⪰0 and Tr⁡(ρ)=1\operatorname{Tr}(\rho)=1Tr(ρ)=1. Diagonal states and effects use the standard matrix diagonal predicate. An effect is positive semidefinite together with its complement. The tensor power uses functions Fin k → Fin D as basis indices; at k=0k=0k=0 it is a one-by-one identity matrix. A strategy is a finite-outcome POVM on that tensor power, followed by a real estimate vector for each outcome. The output values are not restricted to [0,1][0,1][0,1]: clipping them to this interval cannot worsen an estimate of a probability. No restriction to classical estimators is placed in the goal; that would change the allowed strategies before the theorem has been proved.

The asymptotic threshold excludes the one-dimensional and single-measurement corners where the claimed rate does not describe the problem. The bound ε≤1/6\varepsilon\le1/6ε≤1/6 keeps the biased distributions used on page 20 nonnegative; ε≥1/2\varepsilon\ge1/2ε≥1/2 would permit a zero-copy constant estimate. Subset milestones require even NNN or explicitly require a half-size subset, so N/2N/2N/2 has its intended meaning. The natural logarithm appears nowhere in the lower-bound rate; entropy, mutual information, and log⁡2M\log_2 Mlog2​M use base two. At zero probability the entropy convention is 0log⁡0=00\log 0=00log0=0.

The finite distributions, entropy, conditional entropy, and mutual information reuse the published WildeQIT definitions. Contributions that prove the four source milestones, establish the sharper overlap fact, or supply the quantitative decoding step are welcome. The goal must retain its order of quantifiers: one hard measurement family, then every strategy, with success demanded on every diagonal state.

Selected references

  • Scott Aaronson, Shadow Tomography of Quantum States, arXiv preprint arXiv:1711.01053v2, 2018. Preprint.
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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Dantzig Selector: Statistical Estimation When p Is Much Larger than n 1: ℓ2 Error Bound for Sparse Parameters under the Uniform Uncertainty PrincipleResearch Paper

Motivation

In many statistical applications the number of unknown parameters ppp is far larger than the number of observations nnn: gene-expression studies with tens of samples and thousands of genes, imaging problems with fewer measurements than pixels, and nonparametric curve estimation from finitely many noisy samples. Least squares is useless in this regime, since the system Xβ=yX\beta=yXβ=y is underdetermined. If the parameter is sparse (only a few of its entries are nonzero), estimation becomes possible, and the question is how accurate a computationally tractable estimator can be.

Candès and Tao (arXiv:math/0506081; Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2007, doi:10.1214/009053606000001523) introduced the Dantzig selector, an estimator computed by a linear program, and proved that its squared error is within a factor of order log⁡p\log plogp of the error of an oracle that knows where the nonzero entries are. The paper, with its discussion in the same issue, is one of the founding results of high-dimensional sparse regression, alongside the Lasso analysis of Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095).

Timeline. Candès and Tao (2005, arXiv:math/0502327) showed that ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ minimization recovers a sparse vector exactly from noiseless data when the restricted isometry constants of the design satisfy δS+θS,S+θS,2S<1\delta_S+\theta_{S,S}+\theta_{S,2S}<1δS​+θS,S​+θS,2S​<1. The Dantzig selector paper (first posted 2005, published 2007) carried this to Gaussian noise, with the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ error bound formalized here (Theorem 1.1) and an oracle inequality (Theorem 1.2). Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (2009) replaced the restricted isometry hypothesis by weaker restricted eigenvalue conditions and showed that the Lasso and the Dantzig selector behave alike.

Setting

Observe y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn from the linear model

y=Xβ+z,y=X\beta+z ,y=Xβ+z,

where X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p is a deterministic design matrix with columns X1,…,XpX_1,\dots,X_pX1​,…,Xp​, each of Euclidean norm ∥Xj∥ℓ2=1\|X_j\|_{\ell_2}=1∥Xj​∥ℓ2​​=1; β∈Rp\beta\in\mathbb R^pβ∈Rp is an unknown deterministic parameter; and z=(z1,…,zn)z=(z_1,\dots,z_n)z=(z1​,…,zn​) is a vector of independent N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) random variables with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. The vector β\betaβ is SSS-sparse if at most SSS of its entries are nonzero.

For T⊆{1,…,p}T\subseteq\{1,\dots,p\}T⊆{1,…,p} let XTX_TXT​ be the submatrix of the columns indexed by TTT. The restricted isometry constant δS\delta_SδS​ is the smallest δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0 with

(1−δ)∥c∥ℓ22≤∥XTc∥ℓ22≤(1+δ)∥c∥ℓ22(1-\delta)\|c\|_{\ell_2}^2\le\|X_Tc\|_{\ell_2}^2\le(1+\delta)\|c\|_{\ell_2}^2(1−δ)∥c∥ℓ2​2​≤∥XT​c∥ℓ2​2​≤(1+δ)∥c∥ℓ2​2​

for all ∣T∣≤S|T|\le S∣T∣≤S and all coefficient vectors ccc; the restricted orthogonality constant θS,S′\theta_{S,S'}θS,S′​ (for S+S′≤pS+S'\le pS+S′≤p) is the smallest θ≥0\theta\ge0θ≥0 with ∣⟨XTc,XT′c′⟩∣≤θ∥c∥ℓ2∥c′∥ℓ2|\langle X_Tc,X_{T'}c'\rangle|\le\theta\|c\|_{\ell_2}\|c'\|_{\ell_2}∣⟨XT​c,XT′​c′⟩∣≤θ∥c∥ℓ2​​∥c′∥ℓ2​​ for all disjoint T,T′T,T'T,T′ with ∣T∣≤S|T|\le S∣T∣≤S, ∣T′∣≤S′|T'|\le S'∣T′∣≤S′.

Given a tuning parameter λp>0\lambda_p>0λp​>0, the Dantzig selector β^\hat\betaβ^​ is any solution of

min⁡β~∈Rp∥β~∥ℓ1subject to∥X∗(y−Xβ~)∥ℓ∞=max⁡1≤j≤p∣⟨y−Xβ~,Xj⟩∣≤λp⋅σ.\min_{\tilde\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\|\tilde\beta\|_{\ell_1}\quad\text{subject to}\quad\|X^*(y-X\tilde\beta)\|_{\ell_\infty}=\max_{1\le j\le p}|\langle y-X\tilde\beta,X_j\rangle|\le\lambda_p\cdot\sigma .β~​∈Rpmin​∥β~​∥ℓ1​​subject to∥X∗(y−Xβ~​)∥ℓ∞​​=1≤j≤pmax​∣⟨y−Xβ~​,Xj​⟩∣≤λp​⋅σ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

Let S≥1S\ge1S≥1, 3S≤p3S\le p3S≤p, β\betaβ SSS-sparse, and δ2S+θS,2S<1\delta_{2S}+\theta_{S,2S}<1δ2S​+θS,2S​<1. For every a≥0a\ge0a≥0, with λp=2(1+a)log⁡p\lambda_p=\sqrt{2(1+a)\log p}λp​=2(1+a)logp​, with probability exceeding 1−(πlog⁡p⋅pa)−11-(\sqrt{\pi\log p}\cdot p^a)^{-1}1−(πlogp​⋅pa)−1 the program has a solution and every solution satisfies

∥β^−β∥ℓ22≤C12⋅λp2⋅S⋅σ2,C1=41−δ2S−θS,2S.\|\hat\beta-\beta\|_{\ell_2}^2\le C_1^2\cdot\lambda_p^2\cdot S\cdot\sigma^2,\qquad C_1=\frac{4}{1-\delta_{2S}-\theta_{S,2S}} .∥β^​−β∥ℓ2​2​≤C12​⋅λp2​⋅S⋅σ2,C1​=1−δ2S​−θS,2S​4​.

For a=0a=0a=0 this is ∥β^−β∥ℓ22≤C12⋅(2log⁡p)⋅S⋅σ2\|\hat\beta-\beta\|_{\ell_2}^2\le C_1^2\cdot(2\log p)\cdot S\cdot\sigma^2∥β^​−β∥ℓ2​2​≤C12​⋅(2logp)⋅S⋅σ2, display (1.10) of the paper. The constant is the one the paper's proof establishes (see Formalization scope).

Milestones

  1. The cone constraint (3.2): if ∥β+h∥ℓ1≤∥β∥ℓ1\|\beta+h\|_{\ell_1}\le\|\beta\|_{\ell_1}∥β+h∥ℓ1​​≤∥β∥ℓ1​​ and β\betaβ vanishes off T0T_0T0​, then ∥hT0c∥ℓ1≤∥hT0∥ℓ1\|h_{T_0^c}\|_{\ell_1}\le\|h_{T_0}\|_{\ell_1}∥hT0c​​∥ℓ1​​≤∥hT0​​∥ℓ1​​.
  2. The tube constraint (3.3): with unit-normed columns, if ∣⟨z,Xj⟩∣≤λp|\langle z,X_j\rangle|\le\lambda_p∣⟨z,Xj​⟩∣≤λp​ for all jjj and β^\hat\betaβ^​ is feasible, then ∥X∗X(β^−β)∥ℓ∞≤2λp\|X^*X(\hat\beta-\beta)\|_{\ell_\infty}\le2\lambda_p∥X∗X(β^​−β)∥ℓ∞​​≤2λp​.
  3. Lemma 3.1 (under the section’s unit-column assumption): an ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound on hhh over T0∪T1T_0\cup T_1T0​∪T1​ (T1T_1T1​ the SSS largest entries of hhh off T0T_0T0​) in terms of ∥XT01TXh∥ℓ2\|X_{T_{01}}^TXh\|_{\ell_2}∥XT01​T​Xh∥ℓ2​​ and ∥h∥ℓ1(T0c)\|h\|_{\ell_1(T_0^c)}∥h∥ℓ1​(T0c​)​, and ∥h∥ℓ22≤∥h∥ℓ2(T01)2+S−1∥h∥ℓ1(T0c)2\|h\|_{\ell_2}^2\le\|h\|_{\ell_2(T_{01})}^2+S^{-1}\|h\|_{\ell_1(T_0^c)}^2∥h∥ℓ2​2​≤∥h∥ℓ2​(T01​)2​+S−1∥h∥ℓ1​(T0c​)2​.
  4. The deterministic core: with σ=1\sigma=1σ=1, on the event ∣⟨z,Xj⟩∣≤λp|\langle z,X_j\rangle|\le\lambda_p∣⟨z,Xj​⟩∣≤λp​ for all jjj, every Dantzig selector satisfies ∥β^−β∥ℓ22≤C12λp2S\|\hat\beta-\beta\|_{\ell_2}^2\le C_1^2\lambda_p^2S∥β^​−β∥ℓ2​2​≤C12​λp2​S.
  5. The Gaussian tail bound: for standard normal zzz and Zj=⟨z,Xj⟩Z_j=\langle z,X_j\rangleZj​=⟨z,Xj​⟩, P(sup⁡j∣Zj∣>u)≤2p φ(u)/u\mathbb P(\sup_j|Z_j|>u)\le2p\,\varphi(u)/uP(supj​∣Zj​∣>u)≤2pφ(u)/u with φ(u)=(2π)−1/2e−u2/2\varphi(u)=(2\pi)^{-1/2}e^{-u^2/2}φ(u)=(2π)−1/2e−u2/2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1.1 shows that an estimator computable by linear programming reaches, up to the factor 2log⁡p2\log p2logp and the constant C12C_1^2C12​, the squared error Sσ2S\sigma^2Sσ2 that least squares would attain if the support of β\betaβ were known in advance, even when p≫np\gg np≫n. The factor log⁡p\log plogp is the price of not knowing the support; the paper argues (p. 5) that, apart from this factor, (1.10) is unimprovable in general. The bound is non-asymptotic, with an explicit constant and an explicit failure probability, and it holds for every SSS-sparse β\betaβ simultaneously in the sense that the good event (the noise being nearly orthogonal to every column) does not depend on β\betaβ. Its deterministic part, Lemma 3.1, is reused verbatim in the proof of the paper's oracle inequality (Theorem 1.2) and became a standard tool in compressed sensing.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, and to our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists. A formalization produces a checked version of the cone-and-tube argument behind most ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-recovery guarantees, a Lean statement of the restricted isometry machinery for noisy data, and a checked Gaussian maximal inequality usable for other high-dimensional estimators. It also settles the exact constant: the paper prints C1=4/(1−δS−θS,2S)C_1=4/(1-\delta_S-\theta_{S,2S})C1​=4/(1−δS​−θS,2S​), while its proof gives δ2S\delta_{2S}δ2S​ in place of δS\delta_SδS​.

Difficulty

Lemma 3.1 is the main obstacle. The obvious approach bounds ∥h∥ℓ2\|h\|_{\ell_2}∥h∥ℓ2​​ directly through restricted isometry, and it fails because the error hhh is not sparse: it spreads over all ppp coordinates, and restricted isometry controls XXX only on vectors with at most 2S2S2S nonzero entries. The two constraints (3.2) and (3.3) only say that hhh is concentrated in ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ on the SSS coordinates of T0T_0T0​ and that X∗XhX^*XhX∗Xh is small coordinatewise, and turning that into an ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound on all of hhh is where the work lies. In Lean this requires bookkeeping that is routine on paper: ordering the coordinates of hhh off T0T_0T0​ by magnitude, with ties and a possibly incomplete last group of coordinates, and working with the span of a selected set of columns. On the probabilistic side, the tail bound needs the law of ⟨z,Xj⟩\langle z,X_j\rangle⟨z,Xj​⟩ (a weighted sum of independent Gaussians), a sharp Gaussian tail estimate of Mills-ratio type, and a union over ppp events. A cruder sub-Gaussian bound 2e−u2/22e^{-u^2/2}2e−u2/2 would not give the stated failure probability.

Formalization scope

Indices are Fin n and Fin p; vectors are functions into ℝ. The norms, the column XjX_jXj​ and the constants δS\delta_SδS​, θS,S′\theta_{S,S'}θS,S′​ are the published definitions CandesTao_Decoding_Norms and CandesTao_Decoding_RestrictedIsometry (the smallest admissible constants, via sInf), from the formalization of Candès and Tao's Decoding by Linear Programming. The noise is a family z : Fin n → Ω → ℝ on a probability space, mutually independent (iIndepFun), each coordinate with law gaussianReal 0 σ². The ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ constraint is coordinatewise. A Dantzig selector is any minimizer; uniqueness is not assumed. Section 3 works with σ=1\sigma=1σ=1; the goal is stated for general σ>0\sigma>0σ>0.

Committed conventions and corrections:

  • Corrected constant. Theorem 1.1 is printed with C1=4/(1−δS−θS,2S)C_1=4/(1-\delta_S-\theta_{S,2S})C1​=4/(1−δS​−θS,2S​), but the proof (pp. 18–19) applies Lemma 3.1, whose δ\deltaδ is δ2S\delta_{2S}δ2S​. Since δS≤δ2S\delta_S\le\delta_{2S}δS​≤δ2S​, the printed constant is stronger than what is proved. The goal and the deterministic core are stated with C1=4/(1−δ2S−θS,2S)C_1=4/(1-\delta_{2S}-\theta_{S,2S})C1​=4/(1−δ2S​−θS,2S​).
  • Domain. 1≤S1\le S1≤S and 3S≤p3S\le p3S≤p, because θS,2S\theta_{S,2S}θS,2S​ is defined only for S+2S≤pS+2S\le pS+2S≤p. This forces p≥3p\ge3p≥3 and log⁡p>0\log p>0logp>0.
  • Failure event. The probability bounded is that of the set where no Dantzig selector exists or some Dantzig selector violates the bound. A version that only constrains existing solutions, or that assumes the feasible set is nonempty, would be weaker. The bound is strict, as in the paper's "exceeding", and is on the outer measure, so no measurability of the event is assumed.
  • Standing assumptions are binders: unit-normed columns, independent Gaussian noise, deterministic XXX and β\betaβ.

A trivializing formalization is excluded: the hypothesis δ2S+θS,2S<1\delta_{2S}+\theta_{S,2S}<1δ2S​+θS,2S​<1 is on the actual least constants of XXX, not on free parameters, and it is satisfiable (for instance by X=IpX=I_pX=Ip​, where both constants vanish).

Needed infrastructure: sums of independent real Gaussians (Mathlib has gaussianReal and its convolution), a Mills-ratio tail bound, a sorting-based block decomposition of a Finset, and orthogonal projection onto the span of finitely many columns. The block decomposition and the tail bound are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of Lemma 3.1.

Selected references

  • E. Candès and T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6) (2007), 2313–2351. arXiv:math/0506081, doi:10.1214/009053606000001523
  • E. Candès and T. Tao, Decoding by linear programming, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 51(12) (2005), 4203–4215. arXiv:math/0502327
  • P. Bickel, Y. Ritov and A. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4) (2009), 1705–1732. arXiv:0801.1095
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Fundamentals of Queueing Theory VIII: Lindley's Integral Equation for the G/G/1 QueueTextbook

Why the G/G/1 queue

The single-server queue with general interarrival times and general service times, written G/G/1 in Kendall's notation, is the model left when every distributional assumption is removed from the classical single-server queue. Customers arrive one at a time, wait in line in first-come, first-served order, and are served one at a time. Almost nothing about it can be computed in closed form. What survives is a recursion for the waiting times of successive customers and the integral equation of its steady state, due to Lindley (Lindley, 1952). Every exact and approximate treatment of the G/G/1 waiting time, including the bounds of the next chapter of the book, starts from that equation.

This mission is the eighth of a series formalizing Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008, DOI 10.1002/9781118625651). It covers Chapter 6, "General Models and Theoretical Topics". The chapter also treats the G/E_k/1 characteristic equation (§6.1), the M/D/c queue (§6.3) and maximum-likelihood estimation for M/M/1 (§6.7), which appear here as further milestones.

Timeline. Lindley (1952) derived the recursion and the integral equation and showed that a limiting waiting-time distribution exists when the mean service time is smaller than the mean interarrival time. Loynes (1962) gave the stationary solution as a supremum over the past of a random walk, for stationary rather than independent inputs. Clarke (1957) derived the maximum-likelihood estimators for M/M/1, and Crommelin (1932) the M/D/c generating function. Chaudhry, Harris and Marchal (1990) located the roots of the G/E_k/1 characteristic equation.

Setting

The interarrival times T(n)T^{(n)}T(n) are independent with common distribution AAA, the service times S(n)S^{(n)}S(n) are independent with common distribution BBB, and the two sequences are independent. Both AAA and BBB are lifetime laws: probability distributions on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The means are E[T]=1/λ\mathrm E[T]=1/\lambdaE[T]=1/λ and E[S]=1/μ\mathrm E[S]=1/\muE[S]=1/μ, and the traffic intensity is ρ=λ/μ=E[S]/E[T]\rho=\lambda/\mu=\mathrm E[S]/\mathrm E[T]ρ=λ/μ=E[S]/E[T].

The line delay Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ of the nnnth customer satisfies Lindley's recursion

Wq(n+1)=max⁡(0,  Wq(n)+S(n)−T(n)).W_q^{(n+1)}=\max\bigl(0,\;W_q^{(n)}+S^{(n)}-T^{(n)}\bigr).Wq(n+1)​=max(0,Wq(n)​+S(n)−T(n)).

Write UUU for the distribution of S−TS-TS−T with S∼BS\sim BS∼B and T∼AT\sim AT∼A independent. Since Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ is independent of (S(n),T(n))(S^{(n)},T^{(n)})(S(n),T(n)), one step of the recursion sends the distribution ν\nuν of Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ to the distribution of max⁡(0,W+U)\max(0,W+U)max(0,W+U) with W∼νW\sim\nuW∼ν independent of UUU. A stationary delay distribution is a probability distribution ν\nuν that this step maps to itself; its CDF is Wq(t)=ν((−∞,t])W_q(t)=\nu((-\infty,t])Wq​(t)=ν((−∞,t]).

Formalization targets

Goal: Lindley's equation (6.8)

If E[T]\mathrm E[T]E[T] and E[S]\mathrm E[S]E[S] are finite and ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1, then a stationary delay distribution exists, and the CDF of every stationary delay distribution satisfies

Wq(t)={∫−∞tWq(t−x) dU(x)(0≤t<∞),0(t<0),U(x)=∫max⁡(0,x)∞B(y) dA(y−x).W_q(t)=\begin{cases}\displaystyle\int_{-\infty}^{t}W_q(t-x)\,dU(x) & (0\le t<\infty),\\ 0 & (t<0),\end{cases} \qquad U(x)=\int_{\max(0,x)}^{\infty}B(y)\,dA(y-x).Wq​(t)=⎩⎨⎧​∫−∞t​Wq​(t−x)dU(x)0​(0≤t<∞),(t<0),​U(x)=∫max(0,x)∞​B(y)dA(y−x).

The goal consists of the existence statement and the equation together. The equation alone is close to unfolding one step of the recursion. Existence is what ties it to a queue in steady state.

Milestones

  • (6.9), the CDF of U=S−TU=S-TU=S−T as a convolution of BBB and AAA.
  • The one-step convolution (p.285): Wq(n+1)(t)=∫−∞tWq(n)(t−x) dU(x)W_q^{(n+1)}(t)=\int_{-\infty}^{t}W_q^{(n)}(t-x)\,dU(x)Wq(n+1)​(t)=∫−∞t​Wq(n)​(t−x)dU(x) for t≥0t\ge0t≥0.
  • (6.10)–(6.12), the Wiener–Hopf form: Wq−(t)+Wq(t)=∫−∞tWq(t−x) dU(x)W_q^-(t)+W_q(t)=\int_{-\infty}^t W_q(t-x)\,dU(x)Wq−​(t)+Wq​(t)=∫−∞t​Wq​(t−x)dU(x) for all ttt, and Wˉq(s)=Wˉq−(s)/(A∗(−s)B∗(s)−1)\bar W_q(s)=\bar W_q^-(s)/(A^*(-s)B^*(s)-1)Wˉq​(s)=Wˉq−​(s)/(A∗(−s)B∗(s)−1) for two-sided Laplace transforms.
  • The G/E_k/1 root result (p.278): the characteristic equation zk=A∗[kμ(1−z)]z^k=A^*[k\mu(1-z)]zk=A∗[kμ(1−z)] has exactly one root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), one in (−1,0)(-1,0)(−1,0) exactly when kkk is even, and, when A∗=[A1∗]kA^*=[A_1^*]^kA∗=[A1∗​]k, exactly kkk distinct roots in the open unit disk.
  • (6.18)–(6.20), the M/D/c generating function and p0p_0p0​ in terms of the roots of zc=e−λ(1−z)z^c=e^{-\lambda(1-z)}zc=e−λ(1−z).
  • (6.33), the maximum-likelihood estimators λ^=na/t\hat\lambda=n_a/tλ^=na​/t, μ^=nc/tb\hat\mu=n_c/t_bμ^​=nc​/tb​ for M/M/1.

Significance

Lindley's equation characterizes the stationary G/G/1 waiting time without any distributional assumption. The M/M/1, M/G/1 and G/M/1 waiting-time distributions of earlier chapters are its special cases. The transform relation (6.12) reduces the G/G/1 delay to a factorization problem for A∗(−s)B∗(s)−1A^*(-s)B^*(s)-1A∗(−s)B∗(s)−1. The recursion and the equation are the starting point of Kingman's bound, of heavy-traffic approximations and of simulation of single-server systems.

All of these results are classical and proved. As far as a search of the platform shows, none of them is formalized. The platform's forward-coupling mission proves convergence to a stationary workload of a continuous-time queue that it assumes to exist. It proves neither the existence of a stationary law of Lindley's discrete recursion nor Lindley's equation. The mission therefore produces a machine-checked account of the G/G/1 recursion on distributions, a Loynes-type existence theorem for it, and the Wiener–Hopf transform identity. Its definitions (lifetime laws, the law of S−TS-TS−T, the law map of the recursion, two-sided transforms) are reusable for Kingman's bound in the next mission of the series.

Difficulty

The obvious route to existence is to iterate the recursion from Wq(0)=0W_q^{(0)}=0Wq(0)​=0 and take a limit. The distributions of Wq(n)W_q^{(n)}Wq(n)​ from zero increase stochastically, but a limit of CDFs need not be a probability distribution: mass can escape to infinity, and it does when ρ>1\rho>1ρ>1. Ruling this out under ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 is the whole content of the existence half. It is a statement about the entire past of the input sequences, not about one step of the recursion, and the book asserts it without argument ("In the steady state (ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1) …", p.285).

The transform identity (6.12) needs the right strip of convergence, which the book does not state. A∗(−s)A^*(-s)A∗(−s) is finite only where the interarrival time has an exponential moment.

Formalization scope

Distributions are Mathlib measures on R\mathbb RR. AAA and BBB are probability measures with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), with integrable identity where means are used. ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 is stated as E[S]/E[T]<1\mathrm E[S]/\mathrm E[T]<1E[S]/E[T]<1 with E[T]>0\mathrm E[T]>0E[T]>0. Independence is encoded by product measures: UUU is the image of B⊗AB\otimes AB⊗A under (s,t)↦s−t(s,t)\mapsto s-t(s,t)↦s−t, and one step of the recursion is the image of ν⊗U\nu\otimes Uν⊗U under (w,u)↦max⁡(0,w+u)(w,u)\mapsto\max(0,w+u)(w,u)↦max(0,w+u). Stieltjes integrals over (−∞,t](-\infty,t](−∞,t] are Lebesgue integrals over the closed half-line, so the atom Wq(0)=q0W_q(0)=q_0Wq​(0)=q0​ is counted. Transforms take complex arguments.

The closed forms carried by the statements are the following.

  • (6.8), in both of the book's forms, ∫−∞tWq(t−x) dU(x)\int_{-\infty}^t W_q(t-x)\,dU(x)∫−∞t​Wq​(t−x)dU(x) and −∫0∞Wq(y) dU(t−y)-\int_0^\infty W_q(y)\,dU(t-y)−∫0∞​Wq​(y)dU(t−y).
  • (6.9) as an integral against the law of T+xT+xT+x.
  • U∗(s)=A∗(−s)B∗(s)U^*(s)=A^*(-s)B^*(s)U∗(s)=A∗(−s)B∗(s) and (6.12), for 0<Re⁡s0<\operatorname{Re}s0<Res with ∫e(Re⁡s)x dA(x)<∞\int e^{(\operatorname{Re}s)x}\,dA(x)<\infty∫e(Res)xdA(x)<∞. The division is stated only where A∗(−s)B∗(s)≠1A^*(-s)B^*(s)\ne1A∗(−s)B∗(s)=1.
  • (6.18) and (6.19) with the denominator 1−zceλ(1−z)1-z^ce^{\lambda(1-z)}1−zceλ(1−z) cleared on ∣z∣≤1|z|\le1∣z∣≤1, and (6.20) for c≥2c\ge2c≥2. The roots z1,…,zc−1z_1,\dots,z_{c-1}z1​,…,zc−1​ are hypotheses: distinct, ≠1\ne1=1, and exhausting the roots in the closed disk.
  • (6.33) as the unique maximizer of −λt−μtb+naln⁡λ+ncln⁡μ-\lambda t-\mu t_b+n_a\ln\lambda+n_c\ln\mu−λt−μtb​+na​lnλ+nc​lnμ over λ,μ>0\lambda,\mu>0λ,μ>0.

A stationary delay distribution is a fixed point of the law map of the recursion, not an arbitrary CDF assumed to satisfy (6.8). A statement of (6.8) for "any CDF with Wq=Wq∗UW_q=W_q*UWq​=Wq​∗U on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)" would assume its own conclusion, and is excluded. The statement for M/D/c includes existence of a steady state under λ<c\lambda<cλ<c as well as the formula for every steady state.

Not formalized: §6.1.1–6.1.2 (G/PH_k/1, quasi-birth–death processes), §6.4 (semi-Markov processes, whose limit theorems the book quotes without hypotheses), §6.5 (random-order and last-come service, series representations), §6.6 (design and control), and the rest of §6.7.

Contributions are welcome on the random-walk representation of the recursion, on the existence theorem under ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1, and on the transform identities. The first two are reusable for any single-server or storage model driven by a reflected random walk.

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • D. V. Lindley, "The theory of queues with a single server", Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 48(2), 1952. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100027638
  • R. M. Loynes, "The stability of a queue with non-independent inter-arrival and service times", Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 58(3), 1962. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100036094
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971.
  • A. B. Clarke, "Maximum likelihood estimates in a simple queue", Annals of Mathematical Statistics 28(4), 1957. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177706796
  • M. L. Chaudhry, C. M. Harris, W. G. Marchal, "Robustness of rootfinding in single-server queueing models", ORSA Journal on Computing 2(3), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.2.3.273
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Elements of Queueing Theory V: Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of QueuesTextbook

Strassen's Theorems and the Stochastic Ordering of Queues

Background

Chapters 1–3 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory compute exact quantities: Palm identities, stability criteria, PASTA, Pollaczek–Khinchin. Chapter 4 asks a different question. When you cannot compute a queue, can you at least say it is better than another one?

That requires an order on distributions. The chapter builds a family of them — integral orders — by choosing a class ℒ of test functions and declaring F ≤_ℒ G when ∫f dF ≤ ∫f dG for all f ∈ ℒ. Three matter: {i} the non-decreasing functions, giving the strong (stochastic) order; {cx} the convex functions, giving the convex order; and their intersection {icx}.

The goal

An integral order compares two distributions that need not live on the same probability space, and that is both its convenience and its difficulty. Strassen's theorems say each of these orders is secretly a statement about a coupling.

Theorem 4.2.2 (p.278), Strassen's ≤_cx theorem:

F ≤_cx G   ⟺   ∃ X ~ F, Y ~ G on one space with  E[Y | X] = X  a.s.
F ≤_icx G  ⟺   the same with  E[Y | X] ≥ X  a.s.

The convex order holds exactly when G is a martingale dilation of F — obtained by spreading each point out without moving its conditional mean. That is what makes the order usable: comparison results for queues become induction arguments on a coupling instead of analytic manipulations of convolutions of c.d.f.'s.

Its companion Theorem 4.2.1 is the ≤_st version, where the coupling is the simpler X ≤ Y a.s. In dimension one both are explicit — take X = F⁻¹(U), Y = G⁻¹(U) for a uniform U. In dimension n there is no such formula, and that is why these are Strassen's theorems. The book attributes both to Strassen (1965) and proves neither.

Why FIFO is optimal

§4.1 is a different kind of comparison: not between two queues, but between two service disciplines for the same queue. The order there is majorization ≺, which compares how spread out two vectors of the same total are.

The answer is that FIFO minimizes E⁰[f(V)] for every convex f (Property 4.1.3), and the proof is an interchange argument. Under any non-preemptive discipline that uses no information on the service times, customer k effectively receives service σ_{γ(k)} for some permutation γ; Lemma 4.1.3 shows the same queue is produced by FIFO fed with that reordered input, and that the reordering does not change the law of the input. Lemma 4.1.4 passes to the limit, which needs ρ < 1. Lemmas 4.1.1 and 4.1.2 then do the combinatorics: undoing one inversion of γ makes the waiting-time vector less spread out, so the identity permutation — FIFO — is extremal.

Feller's paradox, and what survives it

§4.4 compares time-stationary queues, and opens with a warning. T_n[P⁰] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃⁰] for every n does not imply T_n[P] ≤_i T̃_n[P̃]: Example 4.4.1, "Feller's paradox revisited", exhibits a Poisson process and a renewal process where the Palm order holds and the stationary one fails. The order does not pass from the Palm probability to the stationary one.

For ≤_cx it does. Lemma 4.4.1 is why: it expands E_P[f(N[0,x))] as a series of second differences of f against Palm expectations, and a convex f makes every coefficient non-negative. Lemma 4.4.2 handles the S-orders, built by dividing Palm integrals by the mean cycle length, and shows that the normalisation does not hide the comparison it normalises by.

Formalization scope

  • Orders. ≤_i, ≤_cx, ≤_icx on distributions on ℝⁿ are integral orders over the book's test classes (§4.2.1), with the page's qualification that only test functions with well-defined integrals count. Majorization ≺ is (4.1.2) with increasing reorderings of both vectors.
  • Strassen. Both theorems are stated as equivalences, with the coupling existential over the probability space. Theorem 4.2.2 carries both clauses — E[Y | X] = X for ≤_cx, E[Y | X] ≥ X for ≤_icx, as conditional expectations given σ(X) — and assumes both distributions integrable; Theorem 4.2.1 has no integrability hypothesis. A one-directional statement (the Jensen half) is not the theorem.
  • The queue of §4.1.3 is constructed: a GI/GI input (i.i.d. inter-arrival and service times, independent), a single work-conserving server started empty, and any non-preemptive discipline whose choices are measurable in the information the book's σ-field 𝒢_t carries (arrivals, service times of customers already started) plus external randomisation. FIFO is one such discipline. The interchange permutations γ_n and their limit γ are built from the schedule as on pp.268–270; Lemma 4.1.4 assumes ρ = E[σ₀]/E[τ₀] < 1.
  • Lemma 4.4.1 is stated with the exact second-difference series and assumes that series converges absolutely; the page states it for all f, which fails for heavy-tailed counts and sparse f.
  • The S-orders test against {I-ℒ} — primitives ∫_0^t f(u, x) du of test functions — and apply only to distributions whose first coordinate is a.s. positive with a finite mean.

What this mission provides

None of it exists. Mathlib has no stochastic order, no convex order, no increasing-convex order, no majorization, no Schur-convexity and no Strassen theorem; the platform returns zero hits for q=stochastic ordering. Everything in this chapter is new substrate — and §§4.1–4.2 need nothing from Palm calculus, so this mission can be read on its own.

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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Uniform Convergence of Relative Frequencies of Events to Their Probabilities II: The Uniform Deviation BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

Bernoulli's law of large numbers says that the relative frequency of a single event AAA in lll independent trials converges in probability to P(A)P(A)P(A). Statistics and learning theory need more: the probabilities of a whole class SSS of events are judged from one and the same sample, so the frequencies must converge uniformly over the class. Uniform convergence can fail even for simple classes (all open subsets of [0,1][0,1][0,1]), so one needs a criterion that says when it holds and how fast.

Vapnik and Chervonenkis gave the first distribution-free answer in On the Uniform Convergence of Relative Frequencies of Events to Their Probabilities (Theory Probab. Appl. 16 (1971) 264–280, doi:10.1137/1116025). Its Theorem 2, now called the VC inequality, bounds the probability of a uniform deviation larger than ε\varepsilonε by a combinatorial quantity of the class times an exponentially small factor.

Timeline:

  • 1933: Glivenko and Cantelli prove uniform almost-sure convergence of the empirical distribution function on the line (the class of rays {x≤a}\{x \le a\}{x≤a}).
  • 1971: Vapnik and Chervonenkis publish the growth function, the VC inequality (Theorem 2), almost-sure convergence under polynomial growth (Theorem 3) and the entropy criterion (Theorem 4).
  • 1972: Sauer and Shelah independently prove the polynomial bound on the growth function (the paper's Lemma 1).
  • From the late 1970s: the inequality is sharpened in its constants and extended to empirical processes (Dudley, Pollard, Talagrand).

Setting

Let (X,P)(X, P)(X,P) be a probability space and SSS a collection of measurable events A⊆XA \subseteq XA⊆X, with probabilities PAP_APA​. A sample of size lll is a sequence x1,…,xlx_1, \dots, x_lx1​,…,xl​ of points of XXX drawn independently with law PPP, so the sample has the product law PlP^lPl on XlX^lXl. The relative frequency of AAA in the sample is νA(l)=nA/l\nu_A^{(l)} = n_A / lνA(l)​=nA​/l, where nAn_AnA​ is the number of sample terms in AAA. The uniform deviation is

π(l)=sup⁡A∈S∣νA(l)−PA∣.\pi^{(l)} = \sup_{A \in S} \bigl|\nu_A^{(l)} - P_A\bigr|.π(l)=A∈Ssup​​νA(l)​−PA​​.

Each A∈SA \in SA∈S induces in a sample x1,…,xrx_1, \dots, x_rx1​,…,xr​ the subsample of terms lying in AAA. The index ΔS(x1,…,xr)\Delta^S(x_1, \dots, x_r)ΔS(x1​,…,xr​) is the number of different subsamples so induced (at most 2r2^r2r), and the growth function is mS(r)=max⁡ΔS(x1,…,xr)m^S(r) = \max \Delta^S(x_1, \dots, x_r)mS(r)=maxΔS(x1​,…,xr​) over all samples of size rrr.

For a double sample x1,…,x2lx_1, \dots, x_{2l}x1​,…,x2l​ let νA′\nu'_AνA′​ and νA′′\nu''_AνA′′​ be the frequencies of AAA in the two semi-samples x1,…,xlx_1, \dots, x_lx1​,…,xl​ and xl+1,…,x2lx_{l+1}, \dots, x_{2l}xl+1​,…,x2l​, and let

ρ(l)=sup⁡A∈S∣νA′−νA′′∣.\rho^{(l)} = \sup_{A \in S} \bigl|\nu'_A - \nu''_A\bigr|.ρ(l)=A∈Ssup​​νA′​−νA′′​​.

Following the paper, π(l)\pi^{(l)}π(l) and ρ(l)\rho^{(l)}ρ(l) are assumed to be measurable functions of the sample for every lll.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 269)

For every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 and every l≥2/ε2l \ge 2/\varepsilon^2l≥2/ε2,

P(π(l)>ε)≤4 mS(2l) e−ε2l/8.P\bigl(\pi^{(l)} > \varepsilon\bigr) \le 4\, m^S(2l)\, e^{-\varepsilon^2 l/8}.P(π(l)>ε)≤4mS(2l)e−ε2l/8.

The constants 444 and 1/81/81/8 and the growth function at 2l2l2l are the paper's.

Milestones, in the order of the proof

  1. Lemma 2 (p. 268): for l≥2/ε2l \ge 2/\varepsilon^2l≥2/ε2, P{ρ(l)≥ε/2}≥12P{π(l)>ε}P\{\rho^{(l)} \ge \varepsilon/2\} \ge \tfrac12 P\{\pi^{(l)} > \varepsilon\}P{ρ(l)≥ε/2}≥21​P{π(l)>ε}.
  2. Eq. (11) (p. 270): P{ρ(l)≥ε/2}=∫1(2l)!∑Tθ(ρ(l)(TX2l)−ε/2) dPP\{\rho^{(l)} \ge \varepsilon/2\} = \int \frac{1}{(2l)!} \sum_{T} \theta\bigl(\rho^{(l)}(T X_{2l}) - \varepsilon/2\bigr)\, dPP{ρ(l)≥ε/2}=∫(2l)!1​∑T​θ(ρ(l)(TX2l​)−ε/2)dP, the sum over all permutations TTT of the 2l2l2l positions (θ\thetaθ the indicator of [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞)).
  3. The Γ\GammaΓ estimate (p. 271): for 0≤m≤2l0 \le m \le 2l0≤m≤2l,
Γ=∑k:∣2k/l−m/l∣≥ε/2(mk)(2l−ml−k)(2ll)≤2e−ε2l/8.\Gamma = \sum_{k : |2k/l - m/l| \ge \varepsilon/2} \frac{\binom{m}{k}\binom{2l-m}{l-k}}{\binom{2l}{l}} \le 2e^{-\varepsilon^2 l/8}.Γ=k:∣2k/l−m/l∣≥ε/2∑​(l2l​)(km​)(l−k2l−m​)​≤2e−ε2l/8.
  1. The per-sample permutation bound (p. 271): for every fixed double sample, 1(2l)!∑Tθ(ρ(l)(TX2l)−ε/2)≤2ΔS(x1,…,x2l) e−ε2l/8\frac{1}{(2l)!}\sum_T \theta\bigl(\rho^{(l)}(T X_{2l}) - \varepsilon/2\bigr) \le 2\Delta^S(x_1, \dots, x_{2l})\, e^{-\varepsilon^2 l/8}(2l)!1​∑T​θ(ρ(l)(TX2l​)−ε/2)≤2ΔS(x1​,…,x2l​)e−ε2l/8.
  2. The semi-sample bound (p. 271): P{ρ(l)≥ε/2}≤2 mS(2l) e−ε2l/8P\{\rho^{(l)} \ge \varepsilon/2\} \le 2\, m^S(2l)\, e^{-\varepsilon^2 l/8}P{ρ(l)≥ε/2}≤2mS(2l)e−ε2l/8 for every l≥1l \ge 1l≥1.

Further items (consequences, not milestones)

  • Corollary (p. 269): if mS(l)≤ln+1m^S(l) \le l^n + 1mS(l)≤ln+1 for all lll and some finite nnn, then P(π(l)>ε)→0P(\pi^{(l)} > \varepsilon) \to 0P(π(l)>ε)→0 for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0.
  • Theorem 3 (p. 271): under the same condition, P(π(l)→0)=1P(\pi^{(l)} \to 0) = 1P(π(l)→0)=1 for an infinite i.i.d. sequence.

Significance

The bound holds for every distribution PPP and depends on the class only through mS(2l)m^S(2l)mS(2l). Together with the paper's Theorem 1 (the growth function is either 2r2^r2r for every rrr or bounded by rn+1r^n + 1rn+1), it shows that every class whose growth function is not identically 2r2^r2r enjoys uniform convergence at an exponential rate in probability and almost surely. The Glivenko–Cantelli theorem is the special case of rays on the line. The inequality underlies sample-complexity bounds for empirical risk minimization, the "finite VC dimension implies learnability" direction of the fundamental theorem of statistical learning, and the theory of empirical processes indexed by sets.

The result has been proved for more than fifty years; what is missing is a machine-checked proof of it in its original form. Formal libraries contain Hoeffding-type inequalities for independent variables and textbook uniform-convergence statements with other constants, stated for hypothesis classes and loss functions. This mission produces the 1971 statement itself, with its constants and its sequence-based index, together with the combinatorial tail bound for sampling without replacement that the paper states without proof.

Difficulty

The obvious argument applies Hoeffding's inequality to each A∈SA \in SA∈S and takes a union bound. This fails as soon as SSS is infinite, and the classes of interest are uncountable. The growth function can only enter after the probabilities PAP_APA​ have been removed from the event, because only then does the event depend on the finitely many subsamples that SSS induces on a finite sample. Lemma 2 does this at the price of the condition l≥2/ε2l \ge 2/\varepsilon^2l≥2/ε2 and a factor 222.

The second difficulty is combinatorial. Under a random rearrangement of a fixed double sample, the number of points of an event that fall into the first half is hypergeometric, not binomial. The paper states the required tail bound Γ≤2e−ε2l/8\Gamma \le 2e^{-\varepsilon^2 l/8}Γ≤2e−ε2l/8 and omits the "simple but long computation". Mathlib has no tail bound for sampling without replacement.

Formalization scope

Samples are functions Fin l → X with 0-based positions; repetitions are allowed. The subsample induced by AAA is the set of positions {i | x i ∈ A}, so the index counts distinct sets of positions and the growth function maximizes over sequences, not finite point sets (the paper's model; the two differ when XXX has fewer than rrr points). The sample law is Measure.pi (fun _ : Fin l => P). The double sample is Fin (l + l) → X, read through Fin.castAdd and Fin.natAdd, and mS(2l)m^S(2l)mS(2l) is growth S (2 * l). Suprema are real suprema over the events of SSS (values in [0,1][0, 1][0,1]; 000 for S=∅S = \emptysetS=∅). Probabilities are values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and the bounds enter through ENNReal.ofReal. Theorem 3 uses the infinite product Measure.infinitePi and evaluates π(l)\pi^{(l)}π(l) on the first lll coordinates.

The measurability of π(l)\pi^{(l)}π(l) (p. 265) and of ρ(l)\rho^{(l)}ρ(l) (p. 268) are the paper's own assumptions and are carried as hypotheses. Without them Theorem 2 can fail for uncountable classes; replacing them by a stronger condition such as countability of SSS would weaken the theorem.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out as follows: ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0 is stated, which forces l≥1l \ge 1l≥1 and so avoids the value 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0 of the frequency. The supremum runs over the events of SSS, not over all subsets. The index counts distinct subsamples, not sets.

Corrections of the printed text:

  1. Lemma 2 is printed for l>2/ε2l > 2/\varepsilon^2l>2/ε2, but its proof concludes for l≥2/ε2l \ge 2/\varepsilon^2l≥2/ε2, and Theorem 2 uses l=2/ε2l = 2/\varepsilon^2l=2/ε2. The ≥\ge≥ form is stated, which is the stronger statement.
  2. The text before the permutation bound describes the averaged quantity as counting arrangements with ∣νA′−νA′′∣≤12ε|\nu'_A - \nu''_A| \le \tfrac12\varepsilon∣νA′​−νA′′​∣≤21​ε; the indicator and the index set of Γ\GammaΓ count those with ≥12ε\ge \tfrac12\varepsilon≥21​ε, which is what is stated.
  3. Slips in the proof of Lemma 2 that do not affect any statement: ε/3\varepsilon/3ε/3 printed for ε/2\varepsilon/2ε/2 on p. 269, and <<<, >>> where Chebyshev's inequality gives ≤\le≤, ≥\ge≥.
  4. Theorem 2 prints "more then" for "more than".

Needed infrastructure:

  • the invariance of Measure.pi under permutations of coordinates;
  • the splitting of Fin (l + l) into two halves under the product measure;
  • Chebyshev's inequality for binomial frequencies;
  • a hypergeometric (sampling without replacement) tail bound.

The last two are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. N. Vapnik and A. Ya. Chervonenkis, On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities, Theory Probab. Appl. 16(2) (1971) 264–280. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116025
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 58 (1963) 13–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
  • N. Sauer, On the density of families of sets, J. Combin. Theory Ser. A 13 (1972) 145–147. https://doi.org/10.1016/0097-3165(72)90019-2
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz and S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Ch. 6 and 28. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107298019
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Power of Convex Relaxation: Near-Optimal Matrix Completion II: Exact Nuclear-Norm Recovery from Nearly Minimally Many EntriesResearch Paper

Motivation

Many data sets are large matrices of which only a small fraction of the entries is observed, and of which the underlying object is believed to have low rank: user–item rating tables in collaborative filtering, distance matrices in sensor-network localization, and measurement matrices in structure-from-motion. Matrix completion asks when the missing entries can be recovered exactly. Rank minimization subject to the observed entries is intractable in general. Its convex relaxation, nuclear-norm minimization, is a semidefinite program, and the question is how many randomly placed entries it needs.

Timeline:

  • 2008–2009. Candès and Recht (arXiv:0805.4471) proved that nuclear-norm minimization recovers an incoherent n×nn\times nn×n matrix of rank rrr from about μ0n6/5rlog⁡n\mu_0 n^{6/5} r\log nμ0​n6/5rlogn uniformly sampled entries, and from n5/4n^{5/4}n5/4 in the low-rank regime. They also showed that about μ0nrlog⁡n\mu_0 nr\log nμ0​nrlogn entries are necessary for any method.
  • 2010. Candès and Tao (doi:10.1109/TIT.2010.2044061), the source of this mission, closed most of the gap. Under a strong incoherence assumption, Cμ2nrlog⁡6nC\mu^2 nr\log^6 nCμ2nrlog6n entries suffice (Theorem 1.2), within a polylogarithmic factor of the information-theoretic limit, which the same paper sharpens (Theorem 1.7).
  • 2009–2011. Keshavan, Montanari and Oh (arXiv:0901.3150) obtained comparable bounds for a non-convex method. Gross (arXiv:0910.1879) and Recht (arXiv:0910.0651) later gave much shorter proofs of an O(μ0nrlog⁡2n)O(\mu_0 nr\log^2 n)O(μ0​nrlog2n) bound under a different incoherence condition, using matrix Bernstein inequalities and a "golfing" construction of the dual certificate.

Setting

Fix M∈Rn×nM \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}M∈Rn×n of rank rrr with singular value decomposition M=∑k=1rσkukvk∗M = \sum_{k=1}^r\sigma_k u_kv_k^*M=∑k=1r​σk​uk​vk∗​, where σk>0\sigma_k>0σk​>0 and {uk}\{u_k\}{uk​}, {vk}\{v_k\}{vk​} are orthonormal. Let PU=∑kukuk∗P_U = \sum_k u_ku_k^*PU​=∑k​uk​uk∗​, PV=∑kvkvk∗P_V = \sum_k v_kv_k^*PV​=∑k​vk​vk∗​, and let E=∑kukvk∗E = \sum_k u_kv_k^*E=∑k​uk​vk∗​ be the sign matrix. The tangent space TTT at MMM is the image of the projection

PT(X)=PUX+XPV−PUXPV,\mathcal{P}_T(X) = P_UX + XP_V - P_UXP_V,PT​(X)=PU​X+XPV​−PU​XPV​,

and PT⊥=I−PT\mathcal{P}_{T^\perp} = \mathcal{I} - \mathcal{P}_TPT⊥​=I−PT​.

MMM obeys the strong incoherence property with parameter μ\muμ if every entry of PUP_UPU​ and PVP_VPV​ is within μr/n\mu\sqrt r/nμr​/n of the corresponding entry of (r/n)I(r/n)I(r/n)I, and every entry of EEE is at most μr/n\mu\sqrt r/nμr​/n in absolute value.

An observation set Ω⊆[n]×[n]\Omega \subseteq [n]\times[n]Ω⊆[n]×[n] is either a uniformly random mmm-subset (the uniform model) or contains each entry independently with probability p=m/n2p = m/n^2p=m/n2 (the Bernoulli model). PΩ\mathcal{P}_\OmegaPΩ​ keeps the entries in Ω\OmegaΩ and zeroes the rest. The program is

minimize ∥X∥∗ subject to PΩ(X)=PΩ(M),(I.3)\text{minimize } \|X\|_* \text{ subject to } \mathcal{P}_\Omega(X) = \mathcal{P}_\Omega(M), \qquad \text{(I.3)}minimize ∥X∥∗​ subject to PΩ​(X)=PΩ​(M),(I.3)

where ∥X∥∗\|X\|_*∥X∥∗​ is the sum of the singular values.

The analysis uses the centered operators QΩ=p−1PΩ−I\mathcal{Q}_\Omega = p^{-1}\mathcal{P}_\Omega - \mathcal{I}QΩ​=p−1PΩ​−I and QT=PT−ρ′I\mathcal{Q}_T = \mathcal{P}_T - \rho'\mathcal{I}QT​=PT​−ρ′I, where ρ=r/n\rho = r/nρ=r/n and ρ′=2ρ−ρ2\rho' = 2\rho-\rho^2ρ′=2ρ−ρ2. It also uses the random matrices (QΩQT)kQΩ(E)(\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{Q}_T)^k\mathcal{Q}_\Omega(E)(QΩ​QT​)kQΩ​(E), where the operator is applied to EEE from the right. ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ denotes the spectral norm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2 (Matrix Completion II)

There is an absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 such that, for every fixed MMM as above and m≤n2m \le n^2m≤n2 uniformly sampled entries,

m≥Cμ2nrlog⁡6n  ⟹  Pr⁡[M is the unique solution of (I.3)]≥1−n−3.m \ge C\mu^2 nr\log^6 n \implies \Pr\bigl[M \text{ is the unique solution of (I.3)}\bigr] \ge 1 - n^{-3}.m≥Cμ2nrlog6n⟹Pr[M is the unique solution of (I.3)]≥1−n−3.

The constant CCC is not fixed; the goal asserts only its existence.

Milestones (in attack order)

  1. Lemma 3.1. A dual certificate YYY with PΩ(Y)=Y\mathcal{P}_\Omega(Y)=YPΩ​(Y)=Y, PT(Y)=E\mathcal{P}_T(Y)=EPT​(Y)=E, ∥PT⊥(Y)∥<1\|\mathcal{P}_{T^\perp}(Y)\|<1∥PT⊥​(Y)∥<1, together with injectivity of PΩ\mathcal{P}_\OmegaPΩ​ on TTT, implies unique recovery. This is already proved on the platform.
  2. Theorem 3.2 (Rudelson selection estimate). With probability at least 1−3n−β1-3n^{-\beta}1−3n−β,
p−1∥PTPΩPT−pPT∥≤CRμ0nrβlog⁡n/m,p^{-1}\|\mathcal{P}_T\mathcal{P}_\Omega\mathcal{P}_T - p\mathcal{P}_T\| \le C_R\sqrt{\mu_0nr\beta\log n/m},p−1∥PT​PΩ​PT​−pPT​∥≤CR​μ0​nrβlogn/m​,

provided the right-hand side is below 111. 3. Lemma 8.1. An exact expansion of (QΩPT)kQΩ(\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{P}_T)^k\mathcal{Q}_\Omega(QΩ​PT​)kQΩ​ in powers of QΩQT\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{Q}_TQΩ​QT​ with explicit recursive coefficients. 4. Lemma 8.2. The coefficients are at most λ⌈(k−j)/2⌉4k\lambda^{\lceil (k-j)/2\rceil}4^kλ⌈(k−j)/2⌉4k, with λ=ρ′/p\lambda = \rho'/pλ=ρ′/p. 5. Lemma 3.3. On the event ∥(QΩQT)kQΩ(E)∥≤σ(k+1)/2\|(\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{Q}_T)^k\mathcal{Q}_\Omega(E)\| \le \sigma^{(k+1)/2}∥(QΩ​QT​)kQΩ​(E)∥≤σ(k+1)/2, the same terms with PT\mathcal{P}_TPT​ obey the bound with an extra factor 1+4k+11+4^{k+1}1+4k+1. 6. Theorem 3.6 (Moment bound II). Let A=(QΩQT)kQΩ(E)A = (\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{Q}_T)^k\mathcal{Q}_\Omega(E)A=(QΩ​QT​)kQΩ​(E) and rμ=μ2rr_\mu = \mu^2 rrμ​=μ2r. Then

Etrace⁡((A∗A)j)≤n(C(j(k+1))6nrμ/m)j(k+1).\mathbb{E}\operatorname{trace}\bigl((A^*A)^j\bigr) \le n\bigl(C(j(k+1))^6nr_\mu/m\bigr)^{j(k+1)}.Etrace((A∗A)j)≤n(C(j(k+1))6nrμ​/m)j(k+1).
  1. Corollary 3.7. Under (I.12), with probability at least 1−n−31-n^{-3}1−n−3 the certificate (III.10) exists and has ∥PT⊥(Y)∥≤1/2\|\mathcal{P}_{T^\perp}(Y)\|\le 1/2∥PT⊥​(Y)∥≤1/2.

Significance

Theorem 1.2 shows that a polynomial-time convex program recovers an incoherent low-rank matrix from a number of entries that is linear in nrnrnr and within a polylogarithmic factor of what any method requires. It turned nuclear-norm minimization from a heuristic into a method with near-optimal guarantees, and much of the later work on low-rank recovery, robust PCA and phase retrieval uses its framework of dual certificates, tangent spaces and incoherence.

The theorem is proved; formalizing it is the remaining work here. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The platform already has the Candès–Recht definitions (nuclear norm, SVD data, Bernoulli model, tangent projection), the deterministic Lemma 3.1, and the Bernoulli-to-uniform transfer. This mission adds:

  • the trace-moment bound, which is the combinatorial core of the paper;
  • the deterministic operator algebra of Appendix A;
  • the assembly into the main theorem.

Shorter later proofs (Gross, Recht) use a different incoherence condition. A formal proof of the goal along either route is welcome, provided it proves the statement as given.

Difficulty

The obvious approach bounds each term ∥(QΩPT)kQΩ(E)∥\|(\mathcal{Q}_\Omega\mathcal{P}_T)^k\mathcal{Q}_\Omega(E)\|∥(QΩ​PT​)kQΩ​(E)∥ of the Neumann series for the certificate separately, using noncommutative Khintchine inequalities and decoupling. This is what Candès and Recht did, and it fails beyond small kkk: the entries of these matrices are coupled through the same random indicators, and the bounds degrade with kkk. That is where their n6/5n^{6/5}n6/5 comes from.

The moment method avoids this but has its own obstruction. Taking absolute values inside the expansion of Etrace⁡(A∗A)j\mathbb{E}\operatorname{trace}(A^*A)^jEtrace(A∗A)j loses a factor of rrr, which gives the quadratic dependence of Theorem 1.1. The linear bound needs sign cancellations among the coefficients of QT\mathcal{Q}_TQT​ to be tracked through a nested induction over "generalized spider" configurations (Section VI). Replacing PT\mathcal{P}_TPT​ by QT\mathcal{Q}_TQT​ (Lemma 3.3) is necessary for those cancellations. Without it the diagonal coefficients are of size r/nr/nr/n instead of r/n\sqrt r/nr​/n.

Formalization scope

  • Objects. Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ (MatrixCompletion.RealMatrix). The SVD is the platform structure SVD M r. Logarithms are natural. Probabilities are the platform's finite sums: successProb (uniform mmm-subsets), bernoulliEventProb and bernoulliExpectation. The spectral norm is spectralNorm. The definitions of matrix_completion_{basic,svd,bernoulli,tangent} are reused, not restated.
  • Square case. Theorem 1.2 is printed "under the same hypotheses as in Theorem 1.1", for n1×n2n_1\times n_2n1​×n2​ matrices. The paper proves only n1=n2=nn_1=n_2=nn1​=n2​=n (Section I-H), and the goal and milestones 3–7 are square. Theorem 3.2 is quoted from Candès–Recht and is stated rectangular, as printed.
  • Rank. "The same hypotheses" is read as the matrix hypotheses (fixed MMM, strong incoherence, uniform sampling), not as r=O(1)r = O(1)r=O(1): (I.12) carries rrr, the paper calls the result general and nonasymptotic, and Section VI never uses bounded rank. The goal holds for every rrr.
  • Constants. Every "numerical constant" (CCC, CRC_RCR​, c0c_0c0​) and every O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is an existential absolute constant quantified before all other variables. The goal's CCC absorbs the standing assumptions n≥C′n \ge C'n≥C′ and m≥2nrm\ge 2nrm≥2nr. Where a milestone needs (I.22), 2nr≤m2nr\le m2nr≤m is an explicit hypothesis, and m≤n2m\le n^2m≤n2 is explicit wherever a probability or p≤1p\le 1p≤1 appears.
  • Correction of Theorem 3.6. The printed bound (III.27) omits the factor nnn and the O(1)j(k+1)O(1)^{j(k+1)}O(1)j(k+1) constant of the paper's own final display (p. 2070), and as printed it is false: for k=0k=0k=0, j=1j=1j=1 and a flat rank-one matrix, the left side exceeds the right by the factor n(1−p)n(1-p)n(1−p). The formal statement is the bound the paper derives, n (C(j(k+1))6nrμ/m)j(k+1)n\,(C(j(k+1))^6nr_\mu/m)^{j(k+1)}n(C(j(k+1))6nrμ​/m)j(k+1), under nrμ≤mnr_\mu\le mnrμ​≤m, which that derivation uses and which (I.12) implies. The milestone text is kept verbatim.
  • Deterministic lemmas. Lemmas 3.3, 8.1 and 8.2 hold for every fixed Ω\OmegaΩ. The event (III.18) is a hypothesis, not a probability.
  • Certificate. YYY of (III.10) exists only when PΩ\mathcal{P}_\OmegaPΩ​ is injective on TTT, so Corollary 3.7's event includes injectivity. YYY is characterized as the minimum-Frobenius-norm solution of PΩ(Y)=Y\mathcal{P}_\Omega(Y)=YPΩ​(Y)=Y, PT(Y)=E\mathcal{P}_T(Y)=EPT​(Y)=E (p. 2061).
  • Ruling out trivialization. The hypothesis m≤n2m\le n^2m≤n2 is there only because successProb is 000 for m>n2m>n^2m>n2; it does not exclude any case the paper covers. The failure probability stays n−3n^{-3}n−3 and is not traded for a constant. The constant CCC may not depend on nnn, rrr, μ\muμ or MMM, so it cannot be chosen to make (I.12) unsatisfiable. For fixed CCC, (I.12) is satisfiable with m≤n2m \le n^2m≤n2 for every large nnn and every r≤n/(Cμ2log⁡6n)r \le n/(C\mu^2\log^6 n)r≤n/(Cμ2log6n).
  • Not covered. Proposition 6.1 (the summand bound on generalized spiders) is the heart of Theorem 3.6. It needs the admissible-quadruplet combinatorics of Sections IV–VI as definitions, and is left to solvers as a lemma of their own. Contributions formalizing Sections IV–VI (the moment expansion (IV.10), admissible pairs, the cancellation identities (VI.1)–(VI.4)) are welcome and reusable for mission I of this series.

Selected references

  • E. J. Candès and T. Tao, The Power of Convex Relaxation: Near-Optimal Matrix Completion, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 56(5):2053–2080, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2010.2044061
  • E. J. Candès and B. Recht, Exact Matrix Completion via Convex Optimization, Found. Comput. Math. 9:717–772, 2009. https://arxiv.org/abs/0805.4471
  • R. H. Keshavan, A. Montanari and S. Oh, Matrix Completion from a Few Entries, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 56(6):2980–2998, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.3150
  • D. Gross, Recovering Low-Rank Matrices from Few Coefficients in Any Basis, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 57(3):1548–1566, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.1879
  • B. Recht, A Simpler Approach to Matrix Completion, J. Mach. Learn. Res. 12:3413–3430, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.0651
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Learnability, Stability and Uniform Convergence I: A Problem Is Learnable if and only if It Admits a Uniform-RO Stable Universal AERMResearch Paper

Motivation

In supervised binary classification, a hypothesis class is learnable if and only if it has uniform convergence, meaning that empirical risks converge to true risks uniformly over the class. When that holds, empirical risk minimisation (ERM) learns. This equivalence, due to Vapnik and Chervonenkis and extended to real-valued losses by Alon, Ben-David, Cesa-Bianchi and Haussler, is the usual starting point of statistical learning theory.

Vapnik's General Learning Setting is broader. It covers stochastic convex optimisation, clustering and density estimation, and in it the equivalence breaks down. Shalev-Shwartz, Shamir, Srebro and Sridharan (JMLR 11 (2010) 2635–2670) exhibit learnable problems with no uniform convergence, and learnable problems where ERM fails. So neither uniform convergence nor the success of ERM characterises learnability there, and something else has to. This mission formalizes the paper's answer, its Theorem 7: stability.

Timeline:

  • 1971–1995: Vapnik and Chervonenkis prove learnability ⇔ uniform convergence for binary classification. Vapnik (1995) introduces the General Learning Setting.
  • 2002: Bousquet and Elisseeff show that uniform stability of a learning rule implies generalization.
  • 2006: Mukherjee, Niyogi, Poggio and Rifkin show that, in the supervised setting, stability of ERM is necessary and sufficient for learnability.
  • 2009–2010: Shalev-Shwartz, Shamir, Srebro and Sridharan (COLT 2009, JMLR 2010) prove that, in the General Learning Setting, learnability is equivalent to the existence of a uniform-RO stable, universally asymptotic empirical risk minimiser (Theorem 7).

Setting

A learning problem consists of a hypothesis class H\mathcal HH (nonempty), an instance set Z\mathcal ZZ with a σ\sigmaσ-algebra, and an objective f:H×Z→Rf:\mathcal H\times\mathcal Z\to\mathbb Rf:H×Z→R with ∣f(h;z)∣≤B|f(h;z)|\le B∣f(h;z)∣≤B for all h,zh,zh,z. Given a probability distribution D\mathcal DD on Z\mathcal ZZ and an i.i.d. sample S=(z1,…,zm)∼DmS=(z_1,\dots,z_m)\sim\mathcal D^mS=(z1​,…,zm​)∼Dm, the following quantities are defined:

  • the risk is F(h)=Ez∼D[f(h;z)]F(h)=\mathbb E_{z\sim\mathcal D}[f(h;z)]F(h)=Ez∼D​[f(h;z)], and F∗=inf⁡hF(h)F^*=\inf_{h}F(h)F∗=infh​F(h);
  • the empirical risk is FS(h)=1m∑i=1mf(h;zi)F_S(h)=\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m f(h;z_i)FS​(h)=m1​∑i=1m​f(h;zi​), and FS(h^S)=inf⁡hFS(h)F_S(\hat h_S)=\inf_h F_S(h)FS​(h^S​)=infh​FS​(h) is the minimal empirical risk. Only the value is used; no minimiser need exist.

A learning rule AAA maps each sample SSS of each size mmm to a hypothesis A(S)A(S)A(S). A rate ε(m)\varepsilon(m)ε(m) is a non-increasing sequence tending to 000. For a rule AAA the paper defines the following properties:

  • AAA is consistent with rate εcons\varepsilon_{\rm cons}εcons​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[F(A(S))−F∗]≤εcons(m)\mathbb E_S[F(A(S))-F^*]\le\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m)ES​[F(A(S))−F∗]≤εcons​(m). It is universally consistent if this holds for every D\mathcal DD with the same rate. The problem is learnable (Definition 1) if a universally consistent rule exists.
  • AAA is an AERM (asymptotic empirical risk minimiser) with rate εerm\varepsilon_{\rm erm}εerm​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[FS(A(S))−FS(h^S)]≤εerm(m)\mathbb E_S[F_S(A(S))-F_S(\hat h_S)]\le\varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)ES​[FS​(A(S))−FS​(h^S​)]≤εerm​(m), and universally so if this holds for every D\mathcal DD.
  • AAA generalizes with rate εgen\varepsilon_{\rm gen}εgen​ under D\mathcal DD if ES[∣F(A(S))−FS(A(S))∣]≤εgen(m)\mathbb E_S[|F(A(S))-F_S(A(S))|]\le\varepsilon_{\rm gen}(m)ES​[∣F(A(S))−FS​(A(S))∣]≤εgen​(m).
  • With S(i)S^{(i)}S(i) the sample SSS with ziz_izi​ replaced by zi′z_i'zi′​, AAA is uniform-RO stable with rate εstable\varepsilon_{\rm stable}εstable​ (Definition 4) if, for all SSS, all replacements (z1′,…,zm′)(z_1',\dots,z_m')(z1′​,…,zm′​) and all z′∈Zz'\in\mathcal Zz′∈Z,
1m∑i=1m∣f(A(S(i));z′)−f(A(S);z′)∣≤εstable(m).\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl|f(A(S^{(i)});z')-f(A(S);z')\bigr|\le\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m).m1​i=1∑m​​f(A(S(i));z′)−f(A(S);z′)​≤εstable​(m).

Average-RO stability (Definition 5) is the in-expectation analogue, with the replacement point also serving as the test point.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

The problem is learnable if and only if there is a learning rule that is uniform-RO stable and universally an AERM. Quantitatively, if AAA is universally consistent with rate εcons\varepsilon_{\rm cons}εcons​, then some rule A′A'A′ is uniform-RO stable and universally AERM with

εstable(m)=2Bm,εerm(m)=3 εcons(⌊m1/4⌋)+8Bm,\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m)=\frac{2B}{\sqrt m},\qquad \varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)=3\,\varepsilon_{\rm cons}\bigl(\lfloor m^{1/4}\rfloor\bigr)+\frac{8B}{\sqrt m},εstable​(m)=m​2B​,εerm​(m)=3εcons​(⌊m1/4⌋)+m​8B​,

and conversely, a uniform-RO stable universal AERM is universally consistent with rate εstable(m)+εerm(m)\varepsilon_{\rm stable}(m)+\varepsilon_{\rm erm}(m)εstable​(m)+εerm​(m).

Milestones

These follow the order of the paper's proof.

  • Sufficiency: Utility Lemma 12 (a bounded sample mean deviates by at most B/mB/\sqrt mB/m​ in expectation), Lemma 11 (on-average generalization ⇔ average-RO stability), Claim 6 (uniform-RO ⇒ average-RO stability), Lemma 15 (an on-average generalizing AERM is consistent), and Theorem 8 (a stable AERM is consistent with rate εstable+εerm\varepsilon_{\rm stable}+\varepsilon_{\rm erm}εstable​+εerm​ and generalizes with rate εstable+2εerm+2B/m\varepsilon_{\rm stable}+2\varepsilon_{\rm erm}+2B/\sqrt mεstable​+2εerm​+2B/m​).
  • Necessity: Lemma 20 (every rule has a uniform-RO stable, 3B/m3B/\sqrt m3B/m​-generalizing version with consistency rate εcons(⌊m⌋)\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(\lfloor\sqrt m\rfloor)εcons​(⌊m​⌋)), Lemma 16, the Main Converse Lemma (E∣FS(h^S)−F∗∣≤2εcons(m′)+2B/m+2Bm′2/m\mathbb E|F_S(\hat h_S)-F^*|\le2\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m')+2B/\sqrt m+2Bm'^2/mE∣FS​(h^S​)−F∗∣≤2εcons​(m′)+2B/m​+2Bm′2/m for 2≤m′≤m/22\le m'\le m/22≤m′≤m/2), and Lemma 18 (under that bound, a consistent and generalizing rule is an AERM).

Significance

Theorem 7 shows that in the General Learning Setting, stability replaces uniform convergence as the notion that characterises learnability. It also says where to look for a learning rule: ERM may fail, but some AERM always works, and it must be stable. The rates are explicit and polynomial. Downstream, the paper uses Theorem 7 to prove Theorem 23 (randomised rules) and to design a generic learning algorithm (Theorem 25). Mission II of this series (Tikhonov-regularised ERM for stochastic convex optimisation) is a concrete instance of a stable AERM for a problem with no uniform convergence.

The theorem has been proved since 2010 but has not been formalized. The platform has the textbook side of the same authors' framework: Understanding Machine Learning Theorem 13.2, UnderstandingML.stability_identity, the replace-one identity behind Lemma 11, stated for hypotheses in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. The platform does not have learnability in the General Learning Setting, over an arbitrary hypothesis class, or the converse direction. That direction is the new content: learnability forces a stable AERM to exist.

Difficulty

The sufficiency direction is a chain of expectation identities. The necessity direction is harder. A universally consistent rule need not be an AERM, need not generalize and need not be stable (Example 2 of the paper), so it cannot simply be reused. ERM cannot be used either, since it can fail on learnable problems. The Main Converse Lemma is where universal consistency is used in full: the rule's guarantee has to be applied under a distribution other than D\mathcal DD, and a naive argument under D\mathcal DD alone fails (Example 1: consistency under one distribution does not imply generalization under it). Combining the lemmas into the stated rates requires choosing the auxiliary sample size and tracking every constant, including the regime of small mmm where Lemma 16's hypothesis 2≤m′≤m/22\le m'\le m/22≤m′≤m/2 cannot be met.

Formalization scope

Samples are Fin m → Z, the sample law Dm\mathcal D^mDm is Measure.pi, and S(i)S^{(i)}S(i) is Function.update S i (S' i). Learning rules have type (m : ℕ) → (Fin m → Z) → H, and every property is asserted for m≥1m\ge1m≥1. The minimal empirical risk and F∗F^*F∗ are real infima over the nonempty, bounded-below family, never values at a chosen minimiser. Rates are non-increasing on m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and tend to 000. ⌊m1/4⌋\lfloor m^{1/4}\rfloor⌊m1/4⌋ and ⌊m⌋\lfloor\sqrt m\rfloor⌊m​⌋ are Nat.sqrt (Nat.sqrt m) and Nat.sqrt m, the paper's εcons(m1/4)\varepsilon_{\rm cons}(m^{1/4})εcons​(m1/4) read at an integer sample size. The paper's B=sup⁡∣f∣B=\sup|f|B=sup∣f∣ is replaced by any bound BBB (all rates increase in BBB).

The paper never discusses measurability. This formalization adds one standing assumption, identical across the series: each f(h;⋅)f(h;\cdot)f(h;⋅) is measurable, the minimal empirical risk S↦inf⁡hFS(h)S\mapsto\inf_hF_S(h)S↦infh​FS​(h) is measurable (true for countable H\mathcal HH, for example), and every learning rule, whether assumed or asserted to exist, has (S,z)↦f(A(S);z)(S,z)\mapsto f(A(S);z)(S,z)↦f(A(S);z) jointly measurable. Without this a non-measurable rule would have Bochner integrals equal to 000, and existence claims such as "some rule is a universal AERM" would be satisfied by junk. Every existential in the goal therefore produces a measurable rule, and learnability is quantified over measurable rules with the rate chosen before the distribution. Uniform-RO stability is pointwise over all samples, replacement vectors and test points; it is never replaced by the in-expectation Definition 5.

No statement is corrected. The proof of the converse in the paper calls A′A'A′ "2B/m2B/\sqrt m2B/m​-generalizing" where Lemma 20 gives 3B/m3B/\sqrt m3B/m​. The stated 8B/m8B/\sqrt m8B/m​ absorbs either value, so Theorem 7 is formalized as printed.

The definitions (risks, rules, consistency, AERM, generalization, the two RO-stability notions) are reusable by the other missions of this series and by any stability-based result in the General Learning Setting. Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, the measure-theoretic infrastructure they need (exchangeability of i.i.d. coordinates under Measure.pi, sub-sampling and restriction of product measures, the variance bound for bounded sample means), and the remaining results of Section 5 (Theorems 9 and 10, Lemmas 14 and 17).

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, O. Shamir, N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, Learnability, Stability and Uniform Convergence, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11 (2010) 2635–2670. https://jmlr.org/papers/v11/shalev-shwartz10a.html
  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2440-0
  • N. Alon, S. Ben-David, N. Cesa-Bianchi, D. Haussler, Scale-sensitive dimensions, uniform convergence, and learnability, Journal of the ACM 44(4) (1997) 615–631. https://doi.org/10.1145/263867.263927
  • O. Bousquet, A. Elisseeff, Stability and Generalization, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2 (2002) 499–526. https://jmlr.org/papers/v2/bousquet02a.html
  • S. Mukherjee, P. Niyogi, T. Poggio, R. Rifkin, Learning theory: stability is sufficient for generalization and necessary and sufficient for consistency of empirical risk minimization, Advances in Computational Mathematics 25 (2006) 161–193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10444-004-7634-z
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 13. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107298019
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Adversarially Robust Generalization Requires More Data 4: Robust Learning from One Thresholded Sample in the Bernoulli ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

Classifiers trained to high standard accuracy can be fooled by small, deliberately chosen perturbations of their inputs, so-called adversarial examples (Szegedy et al., 2014; Goodfellow et al., 2015). Training methods that aim at robustness against perturbations bounded in the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ norm reach high robust accuracy on the training set while robust test accuracy stays far lower, a gap much larger than the standard generalization gap (Madry et al., 2018). Schmidt, Santurkar, Tsipras, Talwar and Mądry (arXiv:1804.11285) ask whether this gap is intrinsic: does learning a robust classifier need more data than learning an accurate one?

They answer with two simple data distributions. In a Gaussian model the robust sample complexity is larger than the standard one by a factor of order d\sqrt dd​, for every learning algorithm. In a Bernoulli model on the hypercube, linear classifiers suffer the same penalty, but a nonlinear classifier does not. This mission formalizes the second half of that picture: in the Bernoulli model, thresholding the input and then applying the linear classifier learned from one single sample is robust against every ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ perturbation of size less than 111.

Setting

Points live in Rd\mathbb R^dRd with the Euclidean inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​. Labels are y∈{±1}y\in\{\pm1\}y∈{±1}. A binary classifier is any map f:Rd→{±1}f:\mathbb R^d\to\{\pm1\}f:Rd→{±1}, and for w∈Rdw\in\mathbb R^dw∈Rd the linear classifier is fw(x)=sgn⁡(⟨w,x⟩)f_w(x)=\operatorname{sgn}(\langle w,x\rangle)fw​(x)=sgn(⟨w,x⟩).

The (θ⋆,τ)(\theta^\star,\tau)(θ⋆,τ)-Bernoulli model. Fix a sign vector θ⋆∈{±1}d\theta^\star\in\{\pm1\}^dθ⋆∈{±1}d and a bias τ∈(0,12]\tau\in(0,\tfrac12]τ∈(0,21​]. A sample (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is drawn by choosing yyy uniformly in {±1}\{\pm1\}{±1} and then, independently for each coordinate iii, setting xi=yθi⋆x_i=y\theta^\star_ixi​=yθi⋆​ with probability 12+τ\tfrac12+\tau21​+τ and xi=−yθi⋆x_i=-y\theta^\star_ixi​=−yθi⋆​ with probability 12−τ\tfrac12-\tau21​−τ. So x∈{±1}dx\in\{\pm1\}^dx∈{±1}d, and each coordinate carries a weak signal of strength 2τ2\tau2τ about the label.

Errors. The classification error of fff is P(x,y)[f(x)≠y]\mathbb P_{(x,y)}[f(x)\ne y]P(x,y)​[f(x)=y]. For ε∈R\varepsilon\in\mathbb Rε∈R the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ ball is B∞ε(x)={x′∈Rd:∥x′−x∥∞≤ε}\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x)=\{x'\in\mathbb R^d:\|x'-x\|_\infty\le\varepsilon\}B∞ε​(x)={x′∈Rd:∥x′−x∥∞​≤ε}, and the ℓ∞ε\ell_\infty^\varepsilonℓ∞ε​-robust classification error of fff is

P(x,y)[∃ x′∈B∞ε(x): f(x′)≠y].\mathbb P_{(x,y)}\big[\exists\,x'\in\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x):\ f(x')\ne y\big].P(x,y)​[∃x′∈B∞ε​(x): f(x′)=y].

The adversary may move xxx anywhere in the ball, including off the hypercube.

Thresholding. The thresholding map T:Rd→RdT:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dT:Rd→Rd is T(x)i=+1T(x)_i=+1T(x)i​=+1 if xi≥0x_i\ge0xi​≥0 and T(x)i=−1T(x)_i=-1T(x)i​=−1 otherwise. The classifier studied is fw^∘Tf_{\hat w}\circ Tfw^​∘T, with w^=yx\hat w=yxw^=yx computed from one training sample (x,y)(x,y)(x,y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10 (p. 8)

There is a universal constant c>0c>0c>0 such that, whenever τ≥c d−1/4\tau\ge c\,d^{-1/4}τ≥cd−1/4 and (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) is one sample of the model with w^=yx\hat w=yxw^=yx,

P(x,y)[∃ ε<1: RobErrε(fw^∘T)>1100] ≤ exp⁡ ⁣(−τ2d2).\mathbb P_{(x,y)}\Big[\exists\,\varepsilon<1:\ \mathrm{RobErr}_\varepsilon\big(f_{\hat w}\circ T\big)>\tfrac1{100}\Big]\ \le\ \exp\!\Big(-\frac{\tau^2d}{2}\Big).P(x,y)​[∃ε<1: RobErrε​(fw^​∘T)>1001​] ≤ exp(−2τ2d​).

The constant ccc is left existential; only the scaling τ≳d−1/4\tau\gtrsim d^{-1/4}τ≳d−1/4 is fixed. The failure probability is the one the paper proves for the same classifier.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 24 (p. 31): P[⟨z,θ⋆⟩≤2τd−2dlog⁡(1/δ)]≤δ\mathbb P\big[\langle z,\theta^\star\rangle\le2\tau d-\sqrt{2d\log(1/\delta)}\big]\le\deltaP[⟨z,θ⋆⟩≤2τd−2dlog(1/δ)​]≤δ for z=xyz=xyz=xy.
  2. Lemma 25 (p. 31): for w^=z/∥z∥2\hat w=z/\|z\|_2w^=z/∥z∥2​, P[⟨w^,θ⋆⟩≤τd]≤exp⁡(−τ2d/2)\mathbb P[\langle\hat w,\theta^\star\rangle\le\tau\sqrt d]\le\exp(-\tau^2d/2)P[⟨w^,θ⋆⟩≤τd​]≤exp(−τ2d/2).
  3. Lemma 26 (p. 32): for a fixed unit www with ⟨w,2τθ⋆⟩≥0\langle w,2\tau\theta^\star\rangle\ge0⟨w,2τθ⋆⟩≥0, P[⟨w,z⟩≤0]≤exp⁡(−2τ2⟨w,θ⋆⟩2)\mathbb P[\langle w,z\rangle\le0]\le\exp(-2\tau^2\langle w,\theta^\star\rangle^2)P[⟨w,z⟩≤0]≤exp(−2τ2⟨w,θ⋆⟩2).
  4. Theorem 27 (p. 32): with probability at least 1−exp⁡(−τ2d/2)1-\exp(-\tau^2d/2)1−exp(−τ2d/2), fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ has classification error at most exp⁡(−2τ4d)\exp(-2\tau^4d)exp(−2τ4d).
  5. Corollary 28 (p. 33): if τ≥(log⁡(1/β)/(2d))1/4\tau\ge(\log(1/\beta)/(2d))^{1/4}τ≥(log(1/β)/(2d))1/4, then with probability at least 1−exp⁡(−τ2d/2)1-\exp(-\tau^2d/2)1−exp(−τ2d/2), fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ has classification error at most β\betaβ.
  6. Thresholding identity (§2.2, p. 7): T(B∞ε(x))={x}T(\mathcal B^\varepsilon_\infty(x))=\{x\}T(B∞ε​(x))={x} for every x∈{±1}dx\in\{\pm1\}^dx∈{±1}d and 0≤ε<10\le\varepsilon<10≤ε<1.

Significance

Together with the lower bound for linear classifiers in the same model (Theorem 9 of the paper), Theorem 10 shows that robust sample complexity depends on the hypothesis class and on the data distribution, not only on the perturbation size: a fixed nonlinear preprocessing step closes a gap that no linear classifier can close. The paper's Gaussian model shows the opposite behaviour, where every learner pays the d\sqrt dd​ penalty, so the two models together separate "robustness is information-theoretically expensive" from "robustness is expensive for a restricted class". The authors also report that an explicit thresholding layer improves robust training on MNIST, which motivates the model.

The result is proved in the paper. To the platform's knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it yields a complete, finite and self-contained robust-learning upper bound, the single-sample standard-generalization bounds of Theorem 27 and Corollary 28 as reusable statements, and a worked instance of one-sided Hoeffding bounds for weighted sums of hypercube coordinates.

Difficulty

The concentration steps are standard, but the natural first approach to the goal fails: a bound on the classification error of the linear classifier fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​ says nothing about its robust error, and for ε\varepsilonε of order τ\tauτ the robust error of every linear classifier is close to 12\tfrac1221​. The goal concerns the nonlinear classifier fw^∘Tf_{\hat w}\circ Tfw^​∘T, whose robustness rests on the data lying exactly on the hypercube and on the adversary's budget being below 111; neither fact is visible to an argument about linear classifiers. A second difficulty is bookkeeping: the paper uses three forms of the estimator (yxyxyx, z/∥z∥2z/\|z\|_2z/∥z∥2​, yx/∥x∥2yx/\|x\|_2yx/∥x∥2​), a training sample and a test sample with the same name, and a failure event that must hold for all ε<1\varepsilon<1ε<1 at once.

Formalization scope

Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Labels and hypercube coordinates are Bool (+1↔+1\leftrightarrow+1↔ true). Because the model is finite, every probability is a finite sum of the weights 12∏i(12±τ)\tfrac12\prod_i(\tfrac12\pm\tau)21​∏i​(21​±τ); no measure theory is involved. Conventions committed to:

  • coordinates of xxx are independent given yyy (the paper's "sampling each coordinate", as its proofs use it);
  • 0<τ≤120<\tau\le\tfrac120<τ≤21​ in every theorem, since 12−τ\tfrac12-\tau21​−τ must be a probability;
  • sgn⁡(0)\operatorname{sgn}(0)sgn(0) is taken as +1+1+1 (a tie is classified +1+1+1); TTT sends 000 to +1+1+1, as printed;
  • the ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ ball is written coordinatewise, never as the Euclidean ball;
  • "with probability at least 1−q1-q1−q, the error is at most β\betaβ" is stated as "the failure event has probability at most qqq";
  • the goal's "for any ε<1\varepsilon<1ε<1" is inside the event, one good sample for all ε\varepsilonε;
  • added hypotheses, each forced by a degenerate case where the printed statement is false: d≥1d\ge1d≥1 in Lemma 24, β>0\beta>0β>0 in Corollary 28, ε≥0\varepsilon\ge0ε≥0 in the thresholding identity.

A formalization that bounds only the standard error of fw^f_{\hat w}fw^​, drops TTT, uses the Euclidean ball, or lets the estimator see θ⋆\theta^\starθ⋆ would be a different and easier statement; the goal rules each of these out.

A complete development needs one-sided Hoeffding bounds for weighted sums of independent bounded variables on a finite product space (Mathlib has the measure-theoretic version, ProbabilityTheory.measure_sum_ge_le_of_iIndepFun with hasSubgaussianMGF_of_mem_Icc) and the transfer between the finite-sum encoding and a product measure. Both are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and a bridge lemma from bprob to Measure.pi, are welcome. The other missions of this series (Gaussian lower bound, Bernoulli lower bound for linear classifiers, Gaussian upper bound) formalize the paper's remaining main results.

Selected references

  • L. Schmidt, S. Santurkar, D. Tsipras, K. Talwar, A. Mądry, Adversarially Robust Generalization Requires More Data, NeurIPS 2018; arXiv:1804.11285v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.11285
  • A. Madry, A. Makelov, L. Schmidt, D. Tsipras, A. Vladu, Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attacks, ICLR 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1706.06083
  • C. Szegedy et al., Intriguing properties of neural networks, ICLR 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199
  • I. Goodfellow, J. Shlens, C. Szegedy, Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examples, ICLR 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1412.6572
  • P. Rigollet, J.-C. Hütter, High Dimensional Statistics, lecture notes, MIT, 2017. https://math.mit.edu/~rigollet/PDFs/RigNotes17.pdf
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Are Call Center and Hospital Arrivals Well Modeled by Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes?: Combining k Equal Subintervals of a Linear Arrival Rate Bounds the Degree of Nonhomogeneity by C/kResearch Paper

Motivation

Arrival processes to call centers and hospital emergency departments are routinely modeled as nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHPPs): Poisson processes whose arrival rate varies over the day. Staffing and queueing models built on this assumption are only as good as the assumption itself, so practitioners test it on data. The standard test, going back to Brown et al. (2005, doi:10.1198/016214504000001808), divides the day into short subintervals, treats the rate as constant on each, rescales the arrival times within each subinterval to [0,1][0,1][0,1], combines all the rescaled data, and applies a Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test of uniformity.

Kim and Whitt (2014, doi:10.1287/msom.2014.0490) ask when this piecewise-constant approximation is justified. If the true rate is not constant on a subinterval, the rescaled arrival times are not uniform, and with enough data the KS test rejects the Poisson hypothesis even when the process really is an NHPP. Section 3 of the paper quantifies this effect through a single number, the degree of nonhomogeneity, and shows how it behaves when the interval is cut into kkk equal pieces. This mission formalizes that section's exact computations for a linear arrival rate.

Setting

An arrival rate function λ\lambdaλ on an interval [0,T][0,T][0,T], T>0T > 0T>0, is nonnegative, integrable, and strictly positive except at finitely many points. Its cumulative arrival rate is

Λ(t)=∫0tλ(s) ds.\Lambda(t) = \int_0^t \lambda(s)\,ds .Λ(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.

Conditionally on nnn arrivals in [0,T][0,T][0,T], the arrival times of an NHPP with rate λ\lambdaλ, divided by TTT, are distributed as the order statistics of nnn independent random variables on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with the conditional cdf

F(t)=Λ(tT)Λ(T),0≤t≤1.F(t) = \frac{\Lambda(tT)}{\Lambda(T)}, \qquad 0 \le t \le 1 .F(t)=Λ(T)Λ(tT)​,0≤t≤1.

The degree of nonhomogeneity is the Kolmogorov distance of FFF from the uniform cdf,

D=sup⁡0≤t≤1∣F(t)−t∣.D = \sup_{0 \le t \le 1} |F(t) - t| .D=0≤t≤1sup​∣F(t)−t∣.

It is zero exactly when λ\lambdaλ is constant, and it is the limit of the KS test statistic as the amount of data grows.

For k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, divide [0,T][0,T][0,T] into kkk subintervals of length T/kT/kT/k. For 1≤j≤k1 \le j \le k1≤j≤k the jjj-th subinterval has cumulative rate Λj(t)=Λ((j−1)T/k+t)−Λ((j−1)T/k)\Lambda_j(t) = \Lambda((j-1)T/k + t) - \Lambda((j-1)T/k)Λj​(t)=Λ((j−1)T/k+t)−Λ((j−1)T/k), conditional cdf Fj(t)=Λj(tT/k)/Λj(T/k)F_j(t) = \Lambda_j(tT/k)/\Lambda_j(T/k)Fj​(t)=Λj​(tT/k)/Λj​(T/k), and share of arrivals pj=(Λ(jT/k)−Λ((j−1)T/k))/Λ(T)p_j = (\Lambda(jT/k) - \Lambda((j-1)T/k))/\Lambda(T)pj​=(Λ(jT/k)−Λ((j−1)T/k))/Λ(T). The data of all subintervals, each rescaled to [0,1][0,1][0,1] and combined, have the conditional cdf F=∑j=1kpjFjF = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j F_jF=∑j=1k​pj​Fj​ (LEMMA 1).

The linear arrival rate is λ(t)=a+bt\lambda(t) = a + btλ(t)=a+bt with b≥0b \ge 0b≥0 and a≥0a \ge 0a≥0, not identically zero. When a>0a > 0a>0 its relative slope is r=b/ar = b/ar=b/a; on the jjj-th subinterval the relative slope is rj=b/λ((j−1)T/k)r_j = b/\lambda((j-1)T/k)rj​=b/λ((j−1)T/k).

In the Lean development these are cumRate, condCdf, degree, subCum, subCdf, weight, mixCdf, linRate and subSlope, in the namespace NHPPArrivals.LinearRate.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 5, combining equally spaced subintervals

For the linear rate, there is a constant CCC such that for every k≥1k \ge 1k≥1

D=sup⁡0≤t≤1∣F(t)−t∣=∑j=1kpjDj=∑j=1kpjsup⁡0≤t≤1∣Fj(t)−t∣,(20)D = \sup_{0 \le t \le 1}|F(t) - t| = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j D_j = \sum_{j=1}^k p_j \sup_{0 \le t \le 1}|F_j(t) - t|, \tag{20}D=0≤t≤1sup​∣F(t)−t∣=j=1∑k​pj​Dj​=j=1∑k​pj​0≤t≤1sup​∣Fj​(t)−t∣,(20)

with, if a>0a > 0a>0,

D=∑j=1kpj rjT/k8+4rjT/k,(21)D = \sum_{j=1}^k \frac{p_j\, r_j T/k}{8 + 4 r_j T/k}, \tag{21}D=j=1∑k​8+4rj​T/kpj​rj​T/k​,(21)

and, if a=0a = 0a=0,

D=p14+∑j=2kpj/(j−1)8+4/(j−1),(22)D = \frac{p_1}{4} + \sum_{j=2}^k \frac{p_j/(j-1)}{8 + 4/(j-1)}, \tag{22}D=4p1​​+j=2∑k​8+4/(j−1)pj​/(j−1)​,(22)

and in both cases D≤C/kD \le C/kD≤C/k. The constant CCC may depend on aaa, bbb and TTT, but not on kkk; its value is left open, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. LEMMA 1, (17): for a general rate, the rescaled combined data have cdf ∑jpjFj\sum_j p_j F_j∑j​pj​Fj​, and the pjp_jpj​ form a probability vector.
  2. THEOREM 4, a>0a > 0a>0, (14), (16): F(t)=(tT+r(tT)2/2)/(T+rT2/2)F(t) = (tT + r(tT)^2/2)/(T + rT^2/2)F(t)=(tT+r(tT)2/2)/(T+rT2/2) and D=∣F(1/2)−1/2∣=rT/(8+4rT)D = |F(1/2) - 1/2| = rT/(8 + 4rT)D=∣F(1/2)−1/2∣=rT/(8+4rT).
  3. THEOREM 4, a=0a = 0a=0, (15): F(t)=t2F(t) = t^2F(t)=t2 and D=1/4D = 1/4D=1/4.
  4. LEMMA 1, (18): closed forms of Λj\Lambda_jΛj​, FjF_jFj​, pjp_jpj​, rjr_jrj​ when a>0a > 0a>0.
  5. LEMMA 1, (19): closed forms of Λj\Lambda_jΛj​, FjF_jFj​, pjp_jpj​, rjr_jrj​ when a=0a = 0a=0.
  6. THEOREM 5, (20): D=∑jpjDjD = \sum_j p_j D_jD=∑j​pj​Dj​ for one fixed kkk.

Significance

The result gives a quantitative criterion for the piecewise-constant approximation: for a linear rate, cutting the interval into kkk equal pieces reduces the degree of nonhomogeneity of the combined data by a factor of order 1/k1/k1/k. Since the KS critical value at sample size nnn is of order 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​, this tells a practitioner how fine the subintervals must be, relative to the amount of data, before a KS test of the Poisson hypothesis stops rejecting merely because the rate varies within subintervals. The paper's later THEOREM 6 and its practical guidelines (§3.4, §3.6) rest on these formulas.

The results are proved in the paper by direct calculation; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a verified library of the conditional-cdf calculus for NHPPs on an interval (the conditional cdf, its degree of nonhomogeneity, the subinterval decomposition) and the exact linear-rate formulas that the testing literature cites.

Difficulty

The computations are elementary, but two steps are not immediate. First, the supremum of ∣F(t)−t∣|F(t) - t|∣F(t)−t∣ over [0,1][0,1][0,1] is a supremum of a nonsmooth function; showing that it is attained at t=1/2t = 1/2t=1/2 requires knowing the sign of F(t)−tF(t) - tF(t)−t on the whole interval, and for the combined cdf it requires that all the pieces FjF_jFj​ attain their maximal deviation at the same point, which is special to linear rates. For a general rate the naive identity D=∑jpjDjD = \sum_j p_j D_jD=∑j​pj​Dj​ fails: the sup of a sum is at most the sum of the sups, with equality only when the maximizers coincide. Second, LEMMA 1 is a statement about the law of a rescaled random variable (the fractional part of kX/TkX/TkX/T), which requires splitting a measure along the kkk subintervals and handling their boundary points.

Formalization scope

Rates are real functions λ:R→R\lambda : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rλ:R→R; only their values on [0,T][0,T][0,T] enter. Λ\LambdaΛ is an interval integral, subintervals are indexed by j∈{1,…,k}j \in \{1, \dots, k\}j∈{1,…,k} with k,jk, jk,j natural numbers cast to reals, and (j−1)(j-1)(j−1) is computed in R\mathbb RR. All quotients are real divisions; the hypotheses of every statement (T>0T > 0T>0, k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, b≥0b \ge 0b≥0, and a>0a > 0a>0 or b>0b > 0b>0 for the linear rate; integrability, nonnegativity and a finite zero set for a general rate) make every denominator Λ(T)\Lambda(T)Λ(T) and Λj(T/k)\Lambda_j(T/k)Λj​(T/k) positive. b≥0b \ge 0b≥0 is the paper's standing assumption of §3.3; excluding a=b=0a = b = 0a=b=0 is §3.2's requirement that the rate be positive except at finitely many points. The degree of nonhomogeneity is sSup of the image of [0,1][0,1][0,1], and every statement that uses it also asserts that the supremum is attained, so no default value of sSup can make a statement true. The constant CCC of THEOREM 5 is quantified before kkk; choosing it after kkk would make the bound empty. The statements are about the general definitions of (17) applied to λ(t)=a+bt\lambda(t) = a + btλ(t)=a+bt, not about the closed forms (18)–(19), which are separate milestones. The formula for rjr_jrj​ in (19) is stated for 2≤j≤k2 \le j \le k2≤j≤k only: r1=b/λ(0)r_1 = b/\lambda(0)r1​=b/λ(0) is undefined when a=0a = 0a=0.

The Poisson process itself is not formalized. LEMMA 1's "i.i.d. random variables" is the paper's THEOREM 1 (the conditioning property) applied to each arrival; LEMMA 1 is stated for the law of one arrival time, the probability measure with density λ/Λ(T)\lambda/\Lambda(T)λ/Λ(T) on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. THEOREM 1, THEOREMS 2–3 and COROLLARY 1 (limits of the empirical cdf and of the KS statistic) are out of scope: they need a point-process layer, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem and KS critical values, none of which exists in Mathlib. THEOREM 6 is out of scope because the paper gives only a sketch comparing DDD with the KS critical value.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, general lemmas on sups of ∣F(t)−t∣|F(t) - t|∣F(t)−t∣ for convex cdfs, and the measure-splitting argument of LEMMA 1, which is reusable for any subinterval-based test of the Poisson hypothesis.

Selected references

  • S.-H. Kim and W. Whitt, Are call center and hospital arrivals well modeled by nonhomogeneous Poisson processes?, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 16(3):464–480, 2014. doi:10.1287/msom.2014.0490
  • L. Brown, N. Gans, A. Mandelbaum, A. Sakov, H. Shen, S. Zeltyn, L. Zhao, Statistical analysis of a telephone call center: a queueing-science perspective, Journal of the American Statistical Association 100(469):36–50, 2005. doi:10.1198/016214504000001808
  • F. J. Massey, The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for goodness of fit, Journal of the American Statistical Association 46(253):68–78, 1951. doi:10.1080/01621459.1951.10500769
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector III: A Sparsity Oracle Inequality for the LassoResearch Paper

Motivation

In high-dimensional regression the number of candidate predictors MMM can far exceed the number of observations nnn. A regression function can then be estimated only if it is well approximated by a combination of a few elements of a large dictionary. The Lasso is the most widely used estimator in this regime. The question this mission formalizes is how well the Lasso predicts when the truth is not assumed to be sparse, or even to lie in the span of the dictionary.

A sparsity oracle inequality answers it. It bounds the prediction error of the estimator by the error of the best sparse approximation of the truth, which only an oracle knowing the truth could compute, plus a remainder proportional to the sparsity of that approximation times log⁡M/n\log M/nlogM/n. Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 2009) proved such an inequality for the Lasso under their restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition. Earlier oracle inequalities for Lasso-type estimators in fixed design (Bunea, Tsybakov and Wegkamp, 2006–2007) required the Gram matrix to be positive definite or to satisfy a mutual-coherence condition. The RE condition is weaker and allows M≫nM\gg nM≫n, and it is now the standard hypothesis in this literature.

Setting

A dictionary f1,…,fMf_1,\dots,f_Mf1​,…,fM​ is evaluated at fixed points Z1,…,ZnZ_1,\dots,Z_nZ1​,…,Zn​. This gives the design matrix X=(fj(Zi))∈Rn×MX=(f_j(Z_i))\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X=(fj​(Zi​))∈Rn×M and, for an unknown regression function fff, the vector f=(f(Z1),…,f(Zn))⊤f=(f(Z_1),\dots,f(Z_n))^\topf=(f(Z1​),…,f(Zn​))⊤. The observations are

y=f+W,W1,…,Wn independent N(0,σ2), σ>0.y=f+W,\qquad W_1,\dots,W_n\ \text{independent}\ \mathcal N(0,\sigma^2),\ \sigma>0 .y=f+W,W1​,…,Wn​ independent N(0,σ2), σ>0.

Nothing is assumed about fff. For v∈Rnv\in\mathbb R^nv∈Rn the empirical norm is ∥v∥n=(1n∑ivi2)1/2\|v\|_n=(\frac1n\sum_iv_i^2)^{1/2}∥v∥n​=(n1​∑i​vi2​)1/2, and for β∈RM\beta\in\mathbb R^Mβ∈RM we write fβ=Xβf_\beta=X\betafβ​=Xβ. The column norms ∥fj∥n\|f_j\|_n∥fj​∥n​ are assumed nonzero, with fmax⁡=max⁡j∥fj∥nf_{\max}=\max_j\|f_j\|_nfmax​=maxj​∥fj​∥n​ and fmin⁡=min⁡j∥fj∥nf_{\min}=\min_j\|f_j\|_nfmin​=minj​∥fj​∥n​. The support of β\betaβ is J(β)={j:βj≠0}J(\beta)=\{j:\beta_j\neq0\}J(β)={j:βj​=0} and its sparsity is M(β)=∣J(β)∣\mathcal M(\beta)=|J(\beta)|M(β)=∣J(β)∣.

The Lasso β^L\hat\beta_Lβ^​L​ is any minimiser of

1n∑i=1n(yi−(Xβ)i)2+2r∑j=1M∥fj∥n∣βj∣,r=Aσlog⁡Mn, A>22,\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\big(y_i-(X\beta)_i\big)^2+2r\sum_{j=1}^M\|f_j\|_n|\beta_j|,\qquad r=A\sigma\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}},\ A>2\sqrt2,n1​i=1∑n​(yi​−(Xβ)i​)2+2rj=1∑M​∥fj​∥n​∣βj​∣,r=AσnlogM​​, A>22​,

and f^L=Xβ^L\hat f_L=X\hat\beta_Lf^​L​=Xβ^​L​.

Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) holds with constant κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 if, for every J0⊆{1,…,M}J_0\subseteq\{1,\dots,M\}J0​⊆{1,…,M} with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s and every δ≠0\delta\neq0δ=0 with ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​,

κn ∣δJ0∣2≤∣Xδ∣2.\kappa\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le|X\delta|_2 .κn​∣δJ0​​∣2​≤∣Xδ∣2​.

The paper's κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is the largest such constant.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1

Fix ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, M≥2M\ge2M≥2, 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M, and let RE(s,(3+4/ε)fmax⁡/fmin⁡)(s,(3+4/\varepsilon)f_{\max}/f_{\min})(s,(3+4/ε)fmax​/fmin​) hold with constant κ\kappaκ. With probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8, every Lasso solution satisfies, simultaneously for all β\betaβ with M(β)≤s\mathcal M(\beta)\le sM(β)≤s,

∥f^L−f∥n2≤(1+ε){∥fβ−f∥n2+C(ε)fmax⁡2A2σ2κ2 M(β)log⁡Mn},C(ε)=4(2+ε)2ε(1+ε).\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le(1+\varepsilon)\Big\{\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+C(\varepsilon)\frac{f_{\max}^2A^2\sigma^2}{\kappa^2}\,\frac{\mathcal M(\beta)\log M}{n}\Big\},\qquad C(\varepsilon)=\frac{4(2+\varepsilon)^2}{\varepsilon(1+\varepsilon)} .∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤(1+ε){∥fβ​−f∥n2​+C(ε)κ2fmax2​A2σ2​nM(β)logM​},C(ε)=ε(1+ε)4(2+ε)2​.

Milestones

  1. (B.4): the noise event A=⋂j{2∣Vj∣≤r∥fj∥n}\mathcal A=\bigcap_j\{2|V_j|\le r\|f_j\|_n\}A=⋂j​{2∣Vj​∣≤r∥fj​∥n​}, with Vj=n−1∑iXijWiV_j=n^{-1}\sum_iX_{ij}W_iVj​=n−1∑i​Xij​Wi​, satisfies P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8P(\mathcal A^c)\le M^{1-A^2/8}P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8.
  2. (B.1) on A\mathcal AA: for every Lasso solution and every β\betaβ,
∥f^L−f∥n2+r∑j∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣≤∥fβ−f∥n2+4r∑j∈J(β)∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣.\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2+r\sum_j\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j|\le\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+4r\sum_{j\in J(\beta)}\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j| .∥f^​L​−f∥n2​+rj∑​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣≤∥fβ​−f∥n2​+4rj∈J(β)∑​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣.
  1. Lemma B.1: the same inequality with probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8.
  2. Cone step: in the case ε∥fβ−f∥n2<4r∑J(β)∥fj∥n∣β^j−βj∣\varepsilon\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2<4r\sum_{J(\beta)}\|f_j\|_n|\hat\beta_j-\beta_j|ε∥fβ​−f∥n2​<4r∑J(β)​∥fj​∥n​∣β^​j​−βj​∣, the difference β^L−β\hat\beta_L-\betaβ^​L​−β lies in the cone with constant (3+4/ε)fmax⁡/fmin⁡(3+4/\varepsilon)f_{\max}/f_{\min}(3+4/ε)fmax​/fmin​ at J(β)J(\beta)J(β).
  3. Inequality before decoupling: ∥f^L−f∥n2≤∥fβ−f∥n2+4rfmax⁡κ−1M(β) (∥f^L−f∥n+∥fβ−f∥n)\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+4rf_{\max}\kappa^{-1}\sqrt{\mathcal M(\beta)}\,(\|\hat f_L-f\|_n+\|f_\beta-f\|_n)∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤∥fβ​−f∥n2​+4rfmax​κ−1M(β)​(∥f^​L​−f∥n​+∥fβ​−f∥n​).
  4. Decoupled bound: ∥f^L−f∥n2≤b+1b−1∥fβ−f∥n2+8b2fmax⁡2(b−1)κ2r2M(β)\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le\frac{b+1}{b-1}\|f_\beta-f\|_n^2+\frac{8b^2f_{\max}^2}{(b-1)\kappa^2}r^2\mathcal M(\beta)∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤b−1b+1​∥fβ​−f∥n2​+(b−1)κ28b2fmax2​​r2M(β) for all b>1b>1b>1.
  5. Corollary 6.2: the same oracle inequality with γ\gammaγ in place of κ\kappaκ and no global RE assumption. The infimum runs over those β\betaβ with M(β)≤s\mathcal M(\beta)\le sM(β)≤s whose support alone satisfies the restricted eigenvalue inequality with constant γ\gammaγ.

Significance

The theorem says that, up to the factor 1+ε1+\varepsilon1+ε and a remainder of order M(β)log⁡M/n\mathcal M(\beta)\log M/nM(β)logM/n, the Lasso predicts as well as the best sss-sparse linear combination of the dictionary. This is the case even when fff is not sparse and not in the span of the dictionary. The remainder is the parametric rate for M(β)\mathcal M(\beta)M(β) parameters, inflated by log⁡M\log MlogM and by the ill-posedness factor fmax⁡2/κ2f_{\max}^2/\kappa^2fmax2​/κ2. Together with Theorem 5.1 of the same paper (mission II of this series), it shows that the Lasso and the Dantzig selector are within the same distance of the sparse oracle. The oracle inequality is used in aggregation, in model selection, and as a black box in later sparse-estimation papers.

The result is proved in the paper. It has not been formalized: at the time of writing, no Lasso oracle inequality and no probabilistic Lasso bound exist on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. What this mission contributes is a machine-checked proof of the paper's Theorem 6.1 with an explicit constant C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε). The paper leaves C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε) unspecified, and its proof fixes the value used here. The mission also formalizes the Gaussian-tail step (B.4) and the deterministic basic inequality (B.1), both of which are shared with the paper's other Lasso results.

Difficulty

There is no sparse truth, so the usual argument does not apply. That argument places the error β^L−β∗\hat\beta_L-\beta^*β^​L​−β∗ in the RE cone and reads off a rate. Here the competitor β\betaβ is arbitrary, and the approximation error ∥fβ−f∥n\|f_\beta-f\|_n∥fβ​−f∥n​ can dominate the penalty terms, in which case the error is not in the cone. The RE assumption can be used only where the error does lie in a cone, and the cone constant available there depends on ε\varepsilonε and on the column-norm ratio fmax⁡/fmin⁡f_{\max}/f_{\min}fmax​/fmin​, because the penalty is weighted while RE is stated for unweighted vectors. What RE then yields is an inequality quadratic in ∥f^L−f∥n\|\hat f_L-f\|_n∥f^​L​−f∥n​ with a cross term, not the (1+ε)(1+\varepsilon)(1+ε) form directly, and the constant C(ε)C(\varepsilon)C(ε) is determined by how that cross term is absorbed. On the probabilistic side, the whole argument must run on one event of probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8. That event may depend neither on β\betaβ nor on the choice of minimiser. The Lasso need not have a unique solution.

Formalization scope

  • The dictionary enters only through X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M (Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ) and the target only through f∈Rnf\in\mathbb R^nf∈Rn, which is arbitrary. The noise is a family W : Fin n → Ω → ℝ of measurable, independent random variables, each with law gaussianReal 0 σ², and σ>0\sigma>0σ>0.
  • The Lasso is an argmin predicate, and every statement is made for every minimiser. "With probability at least ppp" means a measurable event EEE with P(E)≥pP(E)\ge pP(E)≥p, chosen before the competitor β\betaβ and the minimiser.
  • RE is stated through a witness κ>0\kappa>0κ>0. Since κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is attained and every bound decreases in κ\kappaκ, this is equivalent to the paper's form, and it avoids a real infimum over an empty set.
  • The infimum over {β:M(β)≤s}\{\beta:\mathcal M(\beta)\le s\}{β:M(β)≤s} is written as "for every such β\betaβ". This is equivalent, because the set contains β=0\beta=0β=0 and the bracket is nonnegative.
  • Correction/strengthening. The printed theorem has an unspecified C(ε)>0C(\varepsilon)>0C(ε)>0. The goal instead uses the value C(ε)=4(2+ε)2/(ε(1+ε))C(\varepsilon)=4(2+\varepsilon)^2/(\varepsilon(1+\varepsilon))C(ε)=4(2+ε)2/(ε(1+ε)) that the proof yields with b=1+2/εb=1+2/\varepsilonb=1+2/ε, and this implies the printed statement. Corollary 6.2 uses the same explicit constant.
  • The standing assumptions of Section 2 (M≥2M\ge2M≥2 and every ∥fj∥n≠0\|f_j\|_n\neq0∥fj​∥n​=0) are hypotheses of every theorem.
  • Some formalizations would make the result trivial, and they are excluded here. The noise must be exactly i.i.d. N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 and must enter only through y=f+Wy=f+Wy=f+W. The target fff must not be restricted to Xβ∗X\beta^*Xβ∗. The event must be measurable. The constant must depend on ε\varepsilonε alone.
  • A single definition file provides the empirical norms, fmax⁡f_{\max}fmax​, fmin⁡f_{\min}fmin​, support and sparsity, the weighted Lasso, RE and its single-set version (the family Λs,γ,c0\Lambda_{s,\gamma,c_0}Λs,γ,c0​​ of Corollary 6.2), the Gaussian noise model and the event A\mathcal AA. The same objects appear in the other missions of this series. Gaussian-tail and union-bound lemmas proved along the way are reusable, and contributions of such lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. Cited version: arXiv:0801.1095v3; DOI 10.1214/08-AOS620.
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron. J. Statist. 1, 169–194, 2007. DOI 10.1214/07-EJS008.
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Aggregation for Gaussian regression, Ann. Statist. 35(4), 1674–1697, 2007. DOI 10.1214/009053606000001587.
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58(1), 267–288, 1996. DOI 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x.
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Linear algebraMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector I: Sparse Eigenvalue and Correlation Conditions Imply the Restricted Eigenvalue ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

In high-dimensional linear regression one observes y=Xβ∗+w∈Rny = X\beta^* + w \in \mathbb R^ny=Xβ∗+w∈Rn with a design matrix X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M whose number of columns MMM may far exceed the sample size nnn. The two standard estimators of a sparse β∗\beta^*β∗, the Lasso (Tibshirani, 1996) and the Dantzig selector (Candès and Tao, 2007), both come with error bounds of order slog⁡M/ns\log M/nslogM/n for an sss-sparse β∗\beta^*β∗, but only under a condition on XXX: since XXX has a non-trivial kernel when M>nM>nM>n, some form of restricted invertibility is unavoidable.

Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095, Ann. Statist. 2009) introduced the restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition, which asks for invertibility of XXX only on a cone of approximately sparse vectors. It is weaker than the conditions used before it and has since become the default assumption in the sparse-estimation literature. Section 4 of the paper relates RE to the earlier conditions:

  • 2005–2007: Candès and Tao (arXiv:math/0506081) analyse the Dantzig selector under a uniform uncertainty principle involving restricted eigenvalues and restricted correlations of XXX; the condition ϕmin⁡(2s)>θs,2s\phi_{\min}(2s)>\theta_{s,2s}ϕmin​(2s)>θs,2s​ is Assumption 1 below with c0=1c_0=1c0​=1.
  • 2006–2009: Meinshausen and Yu (arXiv:math/0605584) analyse the Lasso under a lower bound on sparse eigenvalues of order slog⁡ns\log nslogn.
  • 2006: Donoho, Elad and Temlyakov (doi:10.1109/TIT.2005.860430) use mutual coherence for sparse recovery; 2007: Bunea, Tsybakov and Wegkamp (doi:10.1214/07-EJS008) use coherence-type conditions for the Lasso.
  • 2009: Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov show (Lemma 4.1 and Section 4) that each of these conditions implies RE.

This mission formalizes those implications.

Setting

Fix integers n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and M≥2M\ge2M≥2 and a matrix X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M with columns x1,…,xMx_1,\dots,x_Mx1​,…,xM​. The Gram matrix is Ψn=XTX/n\Psi_n = X^TX/nΨn​=XTX/n. For δ∈RM\delta\in\mathbb R^Mδ∈RM and J⊆{1,…,M}J\subseteq\{1,\dots,M\}J⊆{1,…,M}, δJ\delta_JδJ​ is the vector equal to δ\deltaδ on JJJ and 000 off JJJ; ∣⋅∣1|\cdot|_1∣⋅∣1​, ∣⋅∣2|\cdot|_2∣⋅∣2​ are the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and Euclidean norms; M(δ)\mathcal M(\delta)M(δ) is the number of non-zero coordinates of δ\deltaδ; J0cJ_0^cJ0c​ is the complement of J0J_0J0​.

The cone condition for J0J_0J0​ and c0>0c_0>0c0​>0 is

∣δJ0c∣1≤c0 ∣δJ0∣1.(4.1)|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0\,|\delta_{J_0}|_1. \tag{4.1}∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​.(4.1)

Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) holds with constant κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 if ∣Xδ∣2≥κn ∣δJ0∣2|X\delta|_2\ge\kappa\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2∣Xδ∣2​≥κn​∣δJ0​​∣2​ for every J0J_0J0​ with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s and every δ≠0\delta\ne0δ=0 satisfying (4.1). For m≥sm\ge sm≥s, let J1J_1J1​ be a set of mmm indices outside J0J_0J0​ carrying the mmm largest ∣δj∣|\delta_j|∣δj​∣, and J01=J0∪J1J_{01}=J_0\cup J_1J01​=J0​∪J1​; Assumption RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) replaces ∣δJ0∣2|\delta_{J_0}|_2∣δJ0​​∣2​ by ∣δJ01∣2|\delta_{J_{01}}|_2∣δJ01​​∣2​.

The restricted eigenvalues are ϕmin⁡(u)\phi_{\min}(u)ϕmin​(u) and ϕmax⁡(u)\phi_{\max}(u)ϕmax​(u), the minimum and maximum of xTΨnx/∣x∣22x^T\Psi_nx/|x|_2^2xTΨn​x/∣x∣22​ over xxx with 1≤M(x)≤u1\le\mathcal M(x)\le u1≤M(x)≤u. The restricted correlations θm1,m2\theta_{m_1,m_2}θm1​,m2​​ are the maximum of c1TXI1TXI2c2/(n∣c1∣2∣c2∣2)c_1^TX_{I_1}^TX_{I_2}c_2/(n|c_1|_2|c_2|_2)c1T​XI1​T​XI2​​c2​/(n∣c1​∣2​∣c2​∣2​) over disjoint index sets I1,I2I_1,I_2I1​,I2​ with ∣Ii∣≤mi|I_i|\le m_i∣Ii​∣≤mi​ and non-zero ci∈RIic_i\in\mathbb R^{I_i}ci​∈RIi​. Two constants are attached to them:

κ1(s,c0)=ϕmin⁡(2s)(1−c0θs,2sϕmin⁡(2s)),κ2(s,m,c0)=ϕmin⁡(s+m)(1−c0s ϕmax⁡(m)m ϕmin⁡(s+m)).\kappa_1(s,c_0)=\sqrt{\phi_{\min}(2s)}\Big(1-\frac{c_0\theta_{s,2s}}{\phi_{\min}(2s)}\Big),\qquad \kappa_2(s,m,c_0)=\sqrt{\phi_{\min}(s+m)}\Big(1-c_0\sqrt{\tfrac{s\,\phi_{\max}(m)}{m\,\phi_{\min}(s+m)}}\Big).κ1​(s,c0​)=ϕmin​(2s)​(1−ϕmin​(2s)c0​θs,2s​​),κ2​(s,m,c0​)=ϕmin​(s+m)​(1−c0​mϕmin​(s+m)sϕmax​(m)​​).

P01P_{01}P01​ is the orthogonal projector in Rn\mathbb R^nRn onto the span of the columns xjx_jxj​, j∈J01j\in J_{01}j∈J01​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 4.1 (ii)

For integers 1≤s≤M/21\le s\le M/21≤s≤M/2, m≥sm\ge sm≥s, s+m≤Ms+m\le Ms+m≤M and c0>0c_0>0c0​>0, if Assumption 2 m ϕmin⁡(s+m)>c02 s ϕmax⁡(m)m\,\phi_{\min}(s+m)>c_0^2\,s\,\phi_{\max}(m)mϕmin​(s+m)>c02​sϕmax​(m) holds, then κ2(s,m,c0)>0\kappa_2(s,m,c_0)>0κ2​(s,m,c0​)>0, RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) and RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) hold with constant κ2(s,m,c0)\kappa_2(s,m,c_0)κ2​(s,m,c0​), and for every J0J_0J0​ with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s and every δ\deltaδ satisfying (4.1)

1n∣P01Xδ∣2 ≥ κ2(s,m,c0) ∣δJ01∣2.\frac1{\sqrt n}|P_{01}X\delta|_2\ \ge\ \kappa_2(s,m,c_0)\,|\delta_{J_{01}}|_2 .n​1​∣P01​Xδ∣2​ ≥ κ2​(s,m,c0​)∣δJ01​​∣2​.

Assumption 2 involves no correlations, only extreme eigenvalues of small principal submatrices of Ψn\Psi_nΨn​.

Lemma 4.1 (i)

For 1≤s≤M/21\le s\le M/21≤s≤M/2 and c0>0c_0>0c0​>0, Assumption 1 ϕmin⁡(2s)>c0θs,2s\phi_{\min}(2s)>c_0\theta_{s,2s}ϕmin​(2s)>c0​θs,2s​ implies the same conclusions with m=sm=sm=s and constant κ1(s,c0)\kappa_1(s,c_0)κ1​(s,c0​).

Coherence-type conditions (Section 4)

For 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M and c0>0c_0>0c0​>0, each of

ϕmin⁡(s)>2c0θs,1s,ϕmin⁡(s)>2c0θ1,1s,diag⁡Ψn=1 and θ1,1<1(1+2c0)s\phi_{\min}(s)>2c_0\theta_{s,1}\sqrt s,\qquad \phi_{\min}(s)>2c_0\theta_{1,1}s,\qquad \operatorname{diag}\Psi_n=1\ \text{and}\ \theta_{1,1}<\frac1{(1+2c_0)s}ϕmin​(s)>2c0​θs,1​s​,ϕmin​(s)>2c0​θ1,1​s,diagΨn​=1 and θ1,1​<(1+2c0​)s1​

(Assumptions 3, 4, 5) implies RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​), with the constants κ2=ϕmin⁡(s)−2c0θs,1s\kappa^2=\phi_{\min}(s)-2c_0\theta_{s,1}\sqrt sκ2=ϕmin​(s)−2c0​θs,1​s​, ϕmin⁡(s)−2c0θ1,1s\phi_{\min}(s)-2c_0\theta_{1,1}sϕmin​(s)−2c0​θ1,1​s and 1−(1+2c0)θ1,1s1-(1+2c_0)\theta_{1,1}s1−(1+2c0​)θ1,1​s respectively.

The milestones are the steps of the proof in Appendix A — the projection inequality (A.1), the block bound (A.2), the shelling bound (A.3), the Candès–Tao correlation bound used for part (i) — followed by part (i) and the three coherence-type implications.

Significance

RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) with c0=3c_0=3c0​=3 and c0=1c_0=1c0​=1 is the hypothesis of the paper's prediction and ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ bounds for the Lasso and the Dantzig selector (Theorems 5.1, 6.1, 7.1, 7.2), and RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) is the hypothesis of its ℓp\ell_pℓp​ bounds. Assumptions 1–5 are stated through quantities that are standard in compressed sensing and random matrix theory, so known bounds for ϕmin⁡\phi_{\min}ϕmin​, ϕmax⁡\phi_{\max}ϕmax​ and θ\thetaθ of random designs transfer, through this mission's theorems, to every result stated under RE. Lemma 4.1 also shows that RE is weaker than the Candès–Tao condition used for the Dantzig selector.

The results are proved in the paper; parts of Lemma 4.1's proof (the correlation bound for part (i)) are cited from Candès and Tao without proof. None of these results is formalized: the platform has pairwise-incoherence and restricted-nullspace statements from Wainwright's textbook (a different conclusion and normalization) and restricted isometry definitions, but neither restricted eigenvalues ϕmin⁡(u),ϕmax⁡(u)\phi_{\min}(u),\phi_{\max}(u)ϕmin​(u),ϕmax​(u), restricted correlations θm1,m2\theta_{m_1,m_2}θm1​,m2​​, nor the RE condition in this form.

Difficulty

The naive attempt to bound ∣Xδ∣2|X\delta|_2∣Xδ∣2​ from below splits δ=δJ0+δJ0c\delta=\delta_{J_0}+\delta_{J_0^c}δ=δJ0​​+δJ0c​​ and applies an eigenvalue bound to each part. This fails: δJ0c\delta_{J_0^c}δJ0c​​ can have up to M−sM-sM−s non-zero coordinates, and no condition on sss- or 2s2s2s-sparse submatrices controls ∣XδJ0c∣2|X\delta_{J_0^c}|_2∣XδJ0c​​∣2​ directly. The cone condition bounds only the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm of δJ0c\delta_{J_0^c}δJ0c​​, while eigenvalue conditions speak about ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norms of sparse vectors; bridging the two with the right constant s/m\sqrt{s/m}s/m​, and keeping track of how the leading block J01J_{01}J01​ interacts with the rest through the projector P01P_{01}P01​, is where the work lies. For part (i), the interaction between disjoint sparse blocks has to be controlled by θs,2s\theta_{s,2s}θs,2s​ rather than by ϕmax⁡\phi_{\max}ϕmax​.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. XXX is Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ; vectors are Fin M → ℝ and Fin n → ℝ; ∣Xδ∣2=(∑i(Xδ)i2)1/2|X\delta|_2=(\sum_i (X\delta)_i^2)^{1/2}∣Xδ∣2​=(∑i​(Xδ)i2​)1/2. The projector P01P_{01}P01​ is Mathlib's orthogonal projection on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) onto the span of the columns indexed by J01J_{01}J01​.
  • RE through a witness. RE X s c0 κ asserts the RE inequality with constant κ\kappaκ for all admissible J0J_0J0​ and δ\deltaδ. The paper's κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is the largest such κ\kappaκ (the minimum is attained), so "RE holds with κ(s,c0)≥κ2\kappa(s,c_0)\ge\kappa_2κ(s,c0​)≥κ2​" is exactly "κ2>0\kappa_2>0κ2​>0 is a witness". This avoids a real infimum over an empty set when J0=∅J_0=\emptysetJ0​=∅.
  • Ties. Every admissible choice of J1J_1J1​ (the mmm largest ∣δj∣|\delta_j|∣δj​∣ outside J0J_0J0​) is quantified over.
  • Restricted eigenvalues and correlations are sInf/sSup over nonempty bounded sets (a basis vector for ϕ\phiϕ; two disjoint singletons for θ\thetaθ, since M≥2M\ge2M≥2), so they equal the paper's attained min/max. uuu, sss, mmm are natural numbers; s≤M/2s\le M/2s≤M/2 is written 2s≤M2s\le M2s≤M.
  • Corrections of the printed statement. (1) Lemma 4.1 says the RE assumptions "hold with κ(s,c0)=κ(s,m,c0)=κ2(s,m,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)=\kappa(s,m,c_0)=\kappa_2(s,m,c_0)κ(s,c0​)=κ(s,m,c0​)=κ2​(s,m,c0​)" (and likewise with κ1\kappa_1κ1​); the proof gives only the lower bound, and the lower bound is what is stated. (2) The paper calls P01P_{01}P01​ "the projector in RM\mathbb R^MRM"; it acts on Rn\mathbb R^nRn. (3) The Section 4 claims "Assumption 3/4/5 implies RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​)" are stated with the explicit constant produced by the displayed argument, a labelled strengthening. (4) The Candès–Tao bound is stated with the hypotheses the proof uses: the blocks are disjoint, of sizes at most sss and 2s2s2s, and ϕmin⁡(2s)>0\phi_{\min}(2s)>0ϕmin​(2s)>0.
  • Ruling out trivializations. RE quantifies over all J0J_0J0​ with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s and all non-zero δ\deltaδ in the cone, and bounds the full ∣Xδ∣2|X\delta|_2∣Xδ∣2​, not ∣XδJ0∣2|X\delta_{J_0}|_2∣XδJ0​​∣2​; no hypothesis restricts XXX beyond the stated assumptions. The hypotheses are satisfiable: for n=M=4n=M=4n=M=4, X=2IX=2IX=2I (so Ψn=I\Psi_n=IΨn​=I), s=1s=1s=1, m=2m=2m=2, c0=1c_0=1c0​=1, Assumption 2 reads 2>12>12>1.
  • Infrastructure. A sparse-vector library (restriction, support, sorting coordinates into blocks) and facts about orthogonal projections onto column spans are needed; both are reusable for the other missions of this series and for compressed-sensing results. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. arXiv:0801.1095v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1095
  • E. Candès, T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2313–2351, 2007. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0506081
  • N. Meinshausen, B. Yu, Lasso-type recovery of sparse representations for high-dimensional data, Ann. Statist. 37(1), 246–270, 2009. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0605584
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron. J. Statist. 1, 169–194, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS008
  • D. L. Donoho, M. Elad, V. N. Temlyakov, Stable recovery of sparse overcomplete representations in the presence of noise, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 52(1), 6–18, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2005.860430
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Markovian Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities II: Max-Max and Max-Min Optimal Returns Bound the Bayesian Optimal ReturnResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markovian decision process (Howard, 1960) models a controller who, in each of finitely many states, picks a decision, earns a reward and moves to a random next state according to known transition probabilities. In applications (inventory control, equipment replacement, quality control) those probabilities are estimated, not known. Satia and Lave (Operations Research 21(3), 1973) treat the uncertainty in two ways: a game-theoretic formulation, in which each unknown row only lies in a given set, and a Bayesian formulation, going back to Silver (1963) and Martin (1967), in which the controller holds a prior on the unknown matrix and learns from observed transitions.

The Bayesian problem is the natural one but its state includes the whole prior, so it cannot be solved exactly beyond small cases. The paper's contribution in the Bayesian part is a pair of computable bounds on the Bayesian optimal return in terms of the two game-theoretic values (max-max and max-min). This mission formalizes those bounds and the chain of facts they rest on.

Setting

There are NNN states iii and, in state iii, a finite nonempty set KiK_iKi​ of decisions. A transition i→ji \to ji→j under decision kkk earns rijkr^k_{ij}rijk​ and rewards are discounted by β\betaβ, 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1. The row pik=(pijk)jp_i^k = (p^k_{ij})_jpik​=(pijk​)j​ of transition probabilities is unknown; it is known to lie in a closed convex nonempty set SikS_i^kSik​ of probability vectors, and S={P:pik∈Sik for all i,k}S = \{P : p_i^k \in S_i^k \text{ for all } i, k\}S={P:pik​∈Sik​ for all i,k}.

A prior ggg is a probability distribution on matrices P=(pik)P = (p_i^k)P=(pik​) whose rows are all probability vectors. Its means are pˉijk=E(pijk)\bar p^k_{ij} = E(p^k_{ij})pˉ​ijk​=E(pijk​). After a transition l→jl \to jl→j under decision mmm the prior is replaced by the Bayes transformation Tljmg(P)=C pljm g(P)T^m_{lj} g(P) = C\,p^m_{lj}\,g(P)Tljm​g(P)=Cpljm​g(P) (Eq. (8)), with CCC the normalizing constant. The Bayesian optimal return f(i,g)f(i,g)f(i,g) solves the recursion

f(i,g)=max⁡k∈Ki{∑jpˉijkrijk+β∑jpˉijkf(j,Tijkg)}.(10)f(i, g) = \max_{k \in K_i} \Big\{ \sum_j \bar p^k_{ij} r^k_{ij} + \beta \sum_j \bar p^k_{ij} f(j, T^k_{ij} g) \Big\}. \qquad (10)f(i,g)=k∈Ki​max​{j∑​pˉ​ijk​rijk​+βj∑​pˉ​ijk​f(j,Tijk​g)}.(10)

The max-max and max-min values V+V^+V+, V−V^-V− solve

Vi±=max⁡k∈Kimax/min⁡pik∈Sik{∑jpijkrijk+β∑jpijkVj±},V_i^\pm = \max_{k \in K_i} \operatorname*{max/min}_{p_i^k \in S_i^k} \Big\{ \sum_j p^k_{ij} r^k_{ij} + \beta \sum_j p^k_{ij} V_j^\pm \Big\},Vi±​=k∈Ki​max​pik​∈Sik​max/min​{j∑​pijk​rijk​+βj∑​pijk​Vj±​},

with max for V+V^+V+ and min for V−V^-V−. Finally α=prob⁡(P∈S∣g)\alpha = \operatorname{prob}(P \in S \mid g)α=prob(P∈S∣g), the prior probability that the true matrix lies in SSS.

The Lean development lives in the namespace SatiaLave.Bayes: UncertainMDP, IsPrior, pbar, bayes, SolvesEq10, SolvesVplus, SolvesVminus, alpha, rmax, rmin, policyValue.

Formalization targets

Goal: Propositions 9 and 10

For every bounded solution fff of (10), all solutions V+V^+V+, V−V^-V−, every prior ggg and every state iii,

αVi−+(1−α)min⁡i,j,krijk1−β  ≤  f(i,g)  ≤  αVi++(1−α)max⁡i,j,krijk1−β,\alpha V_i^- + (1-\alpha)\min_{i,j,k}\frac{r^k_{ij}}{1-\beta} \;\le\; f(i,g) \;\le\; \alpha V_i^+ + (1-\alpha)\max_{i,j,k}\frac{r^k_{ij}}{1-\beta},αVi−​+(1−α)i,j,kmin​1−βrijk​​≤f(i,g)≤αVi+​+(1−α)i,j,kmax​1−βrijk​​,

together with the existence of fff, V+V^+V+ and V−V^-V−. Both halves are the paper's printed statements.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 6 (Martin): (9)/(10) has a unique bounded solution (unique at priors).
  2. No learning (p. 733): at a point-mass prior δP\delta_PδP​, f(⋅,δP)f(\cdot,\delta_P)f(⋅,δP​) solves the optimality equations of the process with known PPP.
  3. Proposition 8: f(i,g)f(i,g)f(i,g) is convex in ggg.
  4. Jensen step (proof of Proposition 9): f(i,g)≤∫f(i,δP) dg(P)f(i,g) \le \int f(i,\delta_P)\,dg(P)f(i,g)≤∫f(i,δP​)dg(P).
  5. Policy step (proof of Proposition 10): f(i,g)≥∫[q+βPAq+β2[PA]2q+⋯ ]i dg(P)f(i,g) \ge \int [q + \beta P^A q + \beta^2 [P^A]^2 q + \cdots]_i\,dg(P)f(i,g)≥∫[q+βPAq+β2[PA]2q+⋯]i​dg(P) for every pure stationary policy AAA.

Significance

The result. The bounds sandwich an intractable quantity between two quantities computable by finite algorithms (the max-max and max-min policy-iteration procedures of the same paper), weighted by a single prior probability α\alphaα. When the prior concentrates on SSS (α→1\alpha \to 1α→1) the bounds become Vi−≤f(i,g)≤Vi+V_i^- \le f(i,g) \le V_i^+Vi−​≤f(i,g)≤Vi+​: the Bayesian return lies between the pessimistic and optimistic robust values. They are the upper and lower bounds on the return that the paper's implicit-enumeration method (the decision tree of its Fig. 2 and Proposition 12) uses to compare decisions. The Jensen step is a value-of-information inequality (Bayesian optimal return is at most the expected full-information optimal return), which recurs throughout Bayesian control and bandit theory.

Formalizing it. The results are proved on paper (Propositions 6 and 8 by reference to Martin's book and Satia's thesis, Propositions 9 and 10 in the text); none is machine-checked. The mission produces a Lean model of Bayes-adaptive Markov decision processes with priors as measures, the Bayes transformation and its fixed-point recursion, and the link between the Bayesian and the robust (rectangular) formulations. Martin's existence-uniqueness theorem and the convexity of the Bayesian value are reusable for any Bayes-adaptive model.

Difficulty

The prior space is infinite-dimensional and not a vector space, so the recursion (10) lives on a space of measures, and the usual finite-state arguments do not apply verbatim. Proposition 8 gives convexity only along finite mixtures, while the proof of Proposition 9 applies Jensen's inequality to the integral mixture g=∫δP dg(P)g = \int \delta_P\,dg(P)g=∫δP​dg(P) of point masses; bridging the two, or proving the value-of-information inequality directly, is the central step. The paper also restricts the point masses to xik∈Sikx_i^k \in S_i^kxik​∈Sik​, which cannot represent a prior with mass outside SSS; the formal statement integrates over every transition matrix, as the next line of the paper's display requires. Measurability of P↦f(i,δP)P \mapsto f(i,\delta_P)P↦f(i,δP​) is not automatic, since fff is only characterized by a functional equation.

Formalization scope

  • States are a nonempty Fintype S; decisions a dependent family D i of nonempty finite types. A matrix is P : (i : S) → D i → S → ℝ with the product Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra.
  • Priors are measures: a probability measure giving full mass to matrices whose rows are probability vectors. This generalizes the paper's densities g(P)g(P)g(P) and includes the point masses axa_xax​ its proof uses.
  • Bayes transformation at pˉ=0\bar p = 0pˉ​=0: the normalizing constant does not exist; bayes then returns ggg. That posterior is always multiplied by pˉ=0\bar p = 0pˉ​=0 in (10), so the choice is immaterial.
  • Readings of informal words. "The problem reduces to a Markovian decision process" = at a point-mass prior, fixed by every Bayes transformation, fff solves the known-PPP optimality equations. "Convex in ggg" = convex along mixtures of priors. "Unique set of bounded functions" = two bounded solutions agree at every prior (values at non-priors are unconstrained). "Satisfy (9)" is formalized as (10), which the paper derives from (9) by linearity of EEE. max⁡P∈S\max_{P\in S}maxP∈S​/min⁡P∈S\min_{P\in S}minP∈S​ in V±V^\pmV± is taken over the row pik∈Sikp_i^k \in S_i^kpik​∈Sik​ (the only row that enters; SSS is a product), as ⨆/⨅ over a nonempty bounded set. "Obviously f(i,g)≥ViAf(i,g)\ge V_i^Af(i,g)≥ViA​" is stated for every pure stationary policy AAA, not only a max-min optimal one. The policy return is the componentwise series ∑nβn(PA)nq\sum_n \beta^n (P^A)^n q∑n​βn(PA)nq.
  • Added hypotheses, not printed: 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1; Sik≠∅S_i^k \ne \emptysetSik​=∅; N≥1N \ge 1N≥1. Printed and kept: SikS_i^kSik​ closed and convex.
  • fff, V+V^+V+, V−V^-V− are quantified as solutions of their equations; α\alphaα is computed from ggg, never a free parameter; max⁡i,j,k[rijk/(1−β)]\max_{i,j,k}[r^k_{ij}/(1-\beta)]maxi,j,k​[rijk​/(1−β)] ranges over all states i,ji,ji,j and k∈Kik \in K_ik∈Ki​. Integrability of the integrands in milestones 4 and 5 is part of their conclusions.
  • Trivializations ruled out. A free α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0,1]α∈[0,1], or fff defined off priors, would make the goal false or vacuous; the goal also asserts that bounded fff and V±V^\pmV± exist, so its universal part is not vacuous.
  • Not in scope: Proposition 7 (matrix-beta conjugacy, which needs a Dirichlet distribution), Propositions 11–13 and the numerical example.

Welcome contributions: the Banach fixed-point argument for (10) on bounded functions of priors; lemmas that bayes maps priors to priors and that point masses are fixed; continuity of the known-PPP optimal value in PPP; a general Jensen inequality for functions convex along mixtures of probability measures.

Selected references

  • J. K. Satia and R. E. Lave, Jr., Markovian Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities, Operations Research 21(3), 728–740, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.3.728
  • J. J. Martin, Bayesian Decision Problems and Markov Chains, Wiley, New York, 1967.
  • E. A. Silver, Markovian Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities or Rewards, Interim Technical Report No. 1, Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, August 1963.
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, 1960.
  • J. K. Satia, Markovian Decision Process with Uncertain Transition Matrices or/and Probabilistic Observation of States, Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University, 1968.
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Power of Convex Relaxation: Near-Optimal Matrix Completion III: No Method Recovers Incoherent Rank-r Matrices below the Sampling Rate (I.20)Research Paper

Motivation

Matrix completion asks to recover a matrix from a small random subset of its entries. It models collaborative filtering (a ratings table with most entries missing), sensor-network localisation from partial distance data, and system identification. With no structure the task is hopeless, so one assumes the matrix has low rank rrr and that its information is not concentrated in a few entries (incoherence).

Candès and Recht (Found. Comput. Math., 2009) showed that nuclear-norm minimisation recovers such a matrix from about n6/5rlog⁡nn^{6/5} r\log nn6/5rlogn random entries. Candès and Tao (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory, 2010) lowered this to nr polylog(n)n r\,\mathrm{polylog}(n)nrpolylog(n). The same paper also asks how few entries any method could possibly use, and answers it with a lower bound, Theorem 1.7: below about μ0nrlog⁡n\mu_0 n r\log nμ0​nrlogn observed entries, no algorithm can succeed. This mission formalizes that lower bound. The two upper bounds of the same paper are separate missions of this series.

Setting

Work with real n×nn\times nn×n matrices. For a matrix MMM, let U⊆RnU \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nU⊆Rn be its column space and V⊆RnV\subseteq \mathbb{R}^nV⊆Rn its row space, and let PUP_UPU​, PVP_VPV​ be the orthogonal projections onto them. Let eae_aea​ be the aaa-th standard basis vector.

Fix an integer rrr and a real μ0\mu_0μ0​. A matrix MMM has rank at most rrr and obeys the incoherence property with parameter μ0\mu_0μ0​ (the paper's (I.18)) if rank⁡M≤r\operatorname{rank}M \le rrankM≤r and

∥PUea∥2≤μ0rn,∥PVeb∥2≤μ0rnfor all a,b∈[n].\|P_U e_a\|^2 \le \frac{\mu_0 r}{n},\qquad \|P_V e_b\|^2 \le \frac{\mu_0 r}{n}\qquad\text{for all } a,b\in[n].∥PU​ea​∥2≤nμ0​r​,∥PV​eb​∥2≤nμ0​r​for all a,b∈[n].

Since ∑a∥PUea∥2=dim⁡U\sum_a \|P_U e_a\|^2 = \dim U∑a​∥PU​ea​∥2=dimU, a matrix of rank exactly rrr can satisfy this only when μ0≥1\mu_0\ge 1μ0​≥1; the smallest possible value μ0=1\mu_0 = 1μ0​=1 means the column and row spaces are spread evenly over the coordinates.

Bernoulli sampling. Fix m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and set p=m/n2p = m/n^2p=m/n2. The observed set Ω⊆[n]×[n]\Omega\subseteq[n]\times[n]Ω⊆[n]×[n] contains each entry independently with probability ppp, so mmm is the expected number of observed entries. The sampling operator PΩ\mathcal{P}_\OmegaPΩ​ keeps the entries of a matrix that lie in Ω\OmegaΩ and sets the others to 000. A recovery method sees only PΩ(M)\mathcal{P}_\Omega(M)PΩ​(M).

The sampling conditions are, with the natural logarithm,

m≥n2(1−e−μ0rnlog⁡(n2δ))(I.20)m \ge n^2\left(1 - e^{-\frac{\mu_0 r}{n}\log\left(\frac{n}{2\delta}\right)}\right) \qquad \text{(I.20)}m≥n2(1−e−nμ0​r​log(2δn​))(I.20) m≥(1−ϵ) μ0nrlog⁡(n2δ),ϵ:=12μ0rnlog⁡(n2δ).(I.21)m \ge (1-\epsilon)\,\mu_0 n r\log\left(\frac{n}{2\delta}\right),\qquad \epsilon := \frac12\frac{\mu_0 r}{n}\log\left(\frac{n}{2\delta}\right). \qquad \text{(I.21)}m≥(1−ϵ)μ0​nrlog(2δn​),ϵ:=21​nμ0​r​log(2δn​).(I.21)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.7 (p. 2058)

Fix 1≤m1 \le m1≤m, 1≤r≤n1 \le r \le n1≤r≤n, μ0≥1\mu_0\ge 1μ0​≥1 and 0<δ<1/20<\delta<1/20<δ<1/2, with ℓ:=n/(μ0r)\ell := n/(\mu_0 r)ℓ:=n/(μ0​r) an integer. If (I.20) fails, or (I.21) fails, then

PΩ(there are infinitely many pairs M≠M′ of rank≤r, incoherent with parameter μ0, with PΩ(M)=PΩ(M′)) ≥ δ.\mathbb{P}_\Omega\Bigl(\text{there are infinitely many pairs } M\ne M' \text{ of rank} \le r, \text{ incoherent with parameter } \mu_0, \text{ with } \mathcal{P}_\Omega(M)=\mathcal{P}_\Omega(M')\Bigr) \ \ge\ \delta .PΩ​(there are infinitely many pairs M=M′ of rank≤r, incoherent with parameter μ0​, with PΩ​(M)=PΩ​(M′)) ≥ δ.

On that event, the observations cannot tell MMM from M′M'M′, so no method can recover every such matrix with probability greater than 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. The statement fixes no constant beyond those the paper prints.

Milestones (Section II)

  1. For pairwise disjoint sets of entries S1,…,SnS_1,\dots,S_nS1​,…,Sn​ of size ℓ\ellℓ, P(every Sa is sampled)=(1−(1−p)ℓ)n\mathbb{P}(\text{every } S_a \text{ is sampled}) = (1-(1-p)^\ell)^nP(every Sa​ is sampled)=(1−(1−p)ℓ)n.
  2. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, π∈[0,1]\pi\in[0,1]π∈[0,1] and 0<δ<1/20<\delta<1/20<δ<1/2: (1−π)n≥1−δ(1-\pi)^n \ge 1-\delta(1−π)n≥1−δ implies π≤2δ/n\pi \le 2\delta/nπ≤2δ/n.
  3. With p=m/n2p = m/n^2p=m/n2 and the theorem's parameters: (1−p)ℓ≤2δ/n(1-p)^\ell \le 2\delta/n(1−p)ℓ≤2δ/n implies (I.20).
  4. 1−e−x>x−x2/21-e^{-x} > x - x^2/21−e−x>x−x2/2 for every x>0x>0x>0 (the paper prints x≥0x\ge0x≥0; see Formalization scope).
  5. The second part of Theorem 1.7: for the theorem's parameters, (I.20) implies (I.21).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1.7 shows that the sample complexity nr polylog(n)n r\,\mathrm{polylog}(n)nrpolylog(n) of the paper's upper bounds is close to optimal: about μ0nrlog⁡n\mu_0 n r\log nμ0​nrlogn entries are necessary, however the matrix is reconstructed. The count exceeds the 2nr−r22nr - r^22nr−r2 degrees of freedom of a rank-rrr matrix by the factor μ0log⁡n\mu_0\log nμ0​logn. The logarithm is a coupon-collector effect: every row has to be sampled. The factor μ0\mu_0μ0​ shows that the oversampling grows in proportion to the coherence. The bound is information-theoretic, and it holds even when the rank bound and the coherence are known in advance.

Formalizing it. The theorem and its proof in Section II are published. No machine-checked version is known to exist, and the platform has no lower bound for matrix completion. A formal proof would also check the printed argument, whose steps are compressed. It would yield reusable pieces: a Lean predicate for incoherence of matrices of bounded rank built on Mathlib's orthogonal projections, the independence computation for Bernoulli sampling over disjoint entry sets, and the elementary estimates that turn a success probability into a sampling rate.

Difficulty

The probabilistic and analytic parts are elementary. The difficulty is in building the hard instances as matrices and certifying them. For each observation set one has to exhibit, on an event of probability at least δ\deltaδ, an infinite family of distinct pairs that agree on Ω\OmegaΩ. Every member must have rank at most rrr and meet both incoherence bounds, measured through projections onto its column and row spaces, and the pairs must stay distinct across the family. The paper describes the instances only informally. They have to be pinned down so that whatever distinguishes MMM from M′M'M′ is really invisible on Ω\OmegaΩ, while the incoherence bounds still hold for every admissible μ0≥1\mu_0\ge1μ0​≥1 and r≤nr\le nr≤n. Computing the column space and the projection norms of an explicit matrix in Lean is the main infrastructure cost.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ (the platform's MatrixCompletion.RealMatrix n n). The observation model is the platform's bernoulliEventProb with rate m/n2m/n^2m/n2, the sum over all Ω\OmegaΩ of p∣Ω∣(1−p)n2−∣Ω∣p^{|\Omega|}(1-p)^{n^2-|\Omega|}p∣Ω∣(1−p)n2−∣Ω∣. The sampling operator is the platform's samplingProjection. Logarithms and exponentials are Real.log, Real.exp. The mission's own definitions are IncoherentRankAtMost r μ₀ M (rank at most rrr, with the projection bounds computed from Mathlib's Submodule.starProjection onto the ranges of MMM and M⊤M^\topM⊤ in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n)) and SamplingConditionI20, SamplingConditionI21.

The formalization commits to four readings:

  • Order of quantifiers. The event is "the set of bad pairs is infinite", evaluated for each Ω\OmegaΩ, so the pairs may depend on Ω\OmegaΩ. This is what Section II establishes and what the sentence after the theorem uses. The reading "fixed M≠M′M\ne M'M=M′ with P(PΩ(M)=PΩ(M′))≥δ\mathbb{P}(\mathcal{P}_\Omega(M) = \mathcal{P}_\Omega(M'))\ge\deltaP(PΩ​(M)=PΩ​(M′))≥δ" is a different statement and is not the goal.
  • Integrality of ℓ\ellℓ. The hypothesis that ℓ=n/(μ0r)\ell = n/(\mu_0 r)ℓ=n/(μ0​r) is an integer is the paper's own "without loss of generality" of Section II, and it is stated explicitly. It forces μ0r≤n\mu_0 r \le nμ0​r≤n.
  • "Fix 1≤m,r≤n1\le m, r\le n1≤m,r≤n" is read as 1≤m1\le m1≤m and 1≤r≤n1\le r\le n1≤r≤n. No upper bound on mmm is imposed, since the failure of (I.20) already gives m<n2m<n^2m<n2.
  • Standing assumptions. Section I-H assumes m≥2nrm\ge 2nrm≥2nr and nnn larger than an absolute constant for the rest of the paper. Those assumptions serve the upper bounds. Theorem 1.7 lists its own ranges, and only those are imposed.

The hypothesis "(I.20) fails or (I.21) fails" covers both parts of the theorem. The last sentence of Section II proves the second part from 1−e−x>x−x2/21 - e^{-x} > x - x^2/21−e−x>x−x2/2, which the paper states "whenever x≥0x \ge 0x≥0". At x=0x=0x=0 the two sides are equal, so the strict inequality is false there; milestone 4 states the corrected range x>0x>0x>0, which is all the paper uses, since its x=μ0rnlog⁡n2δx = \frac{\mu_0 r}{n}\log\frac{n}{2\delta}x=nμ0​r​log2δn​ is positive.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The set of pairs requires M≠M′M\ne M'M=M′, so the diagonal pairs (M,M)(M,M)(M,M) do not count. "Infinitely many" is Set.Infinite of a set of pairs, not "at least one". Incoherence uses the theorem's rrr and the actual column and row spaces, so the class is the paper's. The hypotheses are satisfiable, for example n=4n=4n=4, r=1r=1r=1, μ0=1\mu_0=1μ0​=1, ℓ=4\ell=4ℓ=4, δ=0.1\delta=0.1δ=0.1, m=1m=1m=1.

Contributions are welcome on every milestone. The Bernoulli independence computation and the incoherence predicate can be reused in the other two missions of this series and in any lower bound for sampling problems.

Selected references

  • E. J. Candès and T. Tao, The Power of Convex Relaxation: Near-Optimal Matrix Completion, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 56(5):2053–2080, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2010.2044061
  • E. J. Candès and B. Recht, Exact Matrix Completion via Convex Optimization, Foundations of Computational Mathematics 9(6):717–772, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-009-9045-5
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning XIX: Generative ModelsTextbook

Motivation

The book is discriminative almost throughout: it learns predictors, not distributions, following Vapnik's advice not to solve a more general problem as an intermediate step. Chapter 24 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019), presents the generative alternative: assume a parametric form for the data distribution and estimate its parameters. The maximum likelihood principle is introduced on Bernoulli and Gaussian samples, shown to be empirical risk minimization for the log-loss, and analyzed through the decomposition of the true log-loss risk into a relative entropy plus an entropy (24.5), which explains both its consistency under a correct model and its overfitting on small samples. Naive Bayes and linear discriminant analysis show how generative assumptions reduce the number of parameters and make the Bayes classifier linear (24.8). The chapter's main theorem concerns the Expectation-Maximization algorithm of Dempster, Laird and Rubin for latent-variable models such as Gaussian mixtures: EM never decreases the log-likelihood (Theorem 24.3), because it is an alternate maximization of a lower bound G(Q,θ)G(Q, \theta)G(Q,θ) that touches the likelihood at the posterior (Lemma 24.2). The chapter ends with Bayesian reasoning and the rule of succession.

Setting

A Bernoulli sample S=(x1,…,xm)S = (x_1, \dots, x_m)S=(x1​,…,xm​) has log-likelihood L(S;θ)=log⁡(θ)∑ixi+log⁡(1−θ)∑i(1−xi)L(S;\theta) = \log(\theta)\sum_i x_i + \log(1-\theta)\sum_i(1-x_i)L(S;θ)=log(θ)∑i​xi​+log(1−θ)∑i​(1−xi​) and estimator θ^=1m∑ixi\hat\theta = \frac1m\sum_i x_iθ^=m1​∑i​xi​ (24.1); a Gaussian sample has L(S;(μ,σ))=−12σ2∑i(xi−μ)2−mlog⁡(σ2π)L(S;(\mu,\sigma)) = -\frac1{2\sigma^2}\sum_i(x_i-\mu)^2 - m\log(\sigma\sqrt{2\pi})L(S;(μ,σ))=−2σ21​∑i​(xi​−μ)2−mlog(σ2π​). The log-loss is ℓ(θ,x)=−log⁡Pθ[x]\ell(\theta, x) = -\log P_\theta[x]ℓ(θ,x)=−logPθ​[x] (24.4); on a finite domain, DRE[P∥Q]=∑xP[x]log⁡(P[x]/Q[x])D_{RE}[P\|Q] = \sum_x P[x]\log(P[x]/Q[x])DRE​[P∥Q]=∑x​P[x]log(P[x]/Q[x]) and H(P)=∑xP[x]log⁡(1/P[x])H(P) = \sum_x P[x]\log(1/P[x])H(P)=∑x​P[x]log(1/P[x]). A latent-variable model is a parametric joint Pθ[X=x,Y=y]P_\theta[X = x, Y = y]Pθ​[X=x,Y=y], y∈[k]y \in [k]y∈[k], with L(θ)=∑ilog⁡∑yPθ[X=xi,Y=y]L(\theta) = \sum_i\log\sum_y P_\theta[X = x_i, Y = y]L(θ)=∑i​log∑y​Pθ​[X=xi​,Y=y]; F(Q,θ)=∑i∑yQi,ylog⁡Pθ[X=xi,Y=y]F(Q,\theta) = \sum_i\sum_y Q_{i,y}\log P_\theta[X = x_i, Y = y]F(Q,θ)=∑i​∑y​Qi,y​logPθ​[X=xi​,Y=y], G(Q,θ)=F(Q,θ)−∑i∑yQi,ylog⁡Qi,yG(Q,\theta) = F(Q,\theta) - \sum_i\sum_y Q_{i,y}\log Q_{i,y}G(Q,θ)=F(Q,θ)−∑i​∑y​Qi,y​logQi,y​ over the set Q\mathcal{Q}Q of row-stochastic matrices, and EM alternates the E-step Qi,y(t+1)=Pθ(t)[Y=y∣X=xi]Q^{(t+1)}_{i,y} = P_{\theta^{(t)}}[Y = y \mid X = x_i]Qi,y(t+1)​=Pθ(t)​[Y=y∣X=xi​] (24.10) with the M-step θ(t+1)∈argmax⁡θF(Q(t+1),θ)\theta^{(t+1)} \in \operatorname{argmax}_\theta F(Q^{(t+1)}, \theta)θ(t+1)∈argmaxθ​F(Q(t+1),θ) (24.11).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 24.3

For a positive parametric joint Pθ[X=x,Y=y]P_\theta[X = x, Y = y]Pθ​[X=x,Y=y], a sample x1,…,xmx_1, \dots, x_mx1​,…,xm​, and any run θ(0),θ(1),…\theta^{(0)}, \theta^{(1)}, \dotsθ(0),θ(1),… of EM (each M-step returning some maximizer of F(Q(t+1),⋅)F(Q^{(t+1)}, \cdot)F(Q(t+1),⋅)), the log-likelihood never decreases:

L(θ(t+1))≥L(θ(t))for all t.L(\theta^{(t+1)}) \ge L(\theta^{(t)}) \quad\text{for all } t.L(θ(t+1))≥L(θ(t))for all t.

Milestones

Equation (24.2) (Hoeffding for the Bernoulli estimator); the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimates of §24.1.1; Equation (24.5) (the risk decomposition DRE[P∥Pθ]+H(P)D_{RE}[P\|P_\theta] + H(P)DRE​[P∥Pθ​]+H(P)); Equation (24.8) (the LDA log-likelihood ratio is affine); Lemma 24.2 (EM as alternate maximization of GGG, with G(Q,θ)≤L(θ)G(Q, \theta) \le L(\theta)G(Q,θ)≤L(θ) and equality at the posterior). Further items: Gibbs' inequality, the Bernoulli maximum likelihood estimator (24.1)/(24.3), Exercise 1 (the biased variance estimate), Equation (24.6), the overfitting example of §24.1.3, Exercise 3 / (24.14), the weighted-centroid M-step (24.13), and the rule of succession of §24.5.

Significance

Theorem 24.3 is the guarantee that makes EM a sensible algorithm: it does not find the maximum likelihood estimate, but it climbs monotonically, and Lemma 24.2 identifies why, the E-step chooses the tightest lower bound G(Q,⋅)G(Q, \cdot)G(Q,⋅) at the current parameter and the M-step maximizes it. This variational view underlies a large part of modern latent-variable inference. Equation (24.5) is the information-theoretic content of maximum likelihood: the true risk is the entropy of the data plus the relative entropy to the model, so the best parameter is a projection of the data distribution onto the model class, and Gibbs' inequality is what makes that projection meaningful. The Bernoulli and Gaussian computations are the standard first examples, and Equation (24.8) is the reason linear classifiers appear in generative modeling. On the platform, the mission adds the relative entropy on finite domains, the EM objects, and Gaussian-integral identities that later probabilistic work can reuse.

Difficulty

The Bernoulli and Gaussian maximum likelihood facts are calculus, but as global maximization statements they need the concavity of log⁡\loglog and an explicit completion of squares rather than the book's stationary-point argument; the Gaussian case reduces to minimizing σ↦mσ^22σ2+mlog⁡σ\sigma \mapsto \frac{m\hat\sigma^2}{2\sigma^2} + m\log\sigmaσ↦2σ2mσ^2​+mlogσ. Equation (24.5) is a finite-sum identity; Gibbs' inequality is Jensen for log⁡\loglog with the equality case, or the elementary log⁡t≤t−1\log t \le t - 1logt≤t−1. Lemma 24.2 is Jensen's inequality applied row by row to ∑yQi,ylog⁡(Pθ[X=xi,Y=y]/Qi,y)\sum_y Q_{i,y}\log(P_\theta[X = x_i, Y = y]/Q_{i,y})∑y​Qi,y​log(Pθ​[X=xi​,Y=y]/Qi,y​), with care at entries Qi,y=0Q_{i,y} = 0Qi,y​=0, where the convention 0log⁡0=00\log 0 = 00log0=0 is exactly Lean's junk value; Theorem 24.3 chains the lemma's three parts as the book does. The Gaussian expectation identities (Exercise 1 and (24.6)) require the moments of gaussianReal and Fubini over the product law. Hoeffding's inequality (24.2) is Mission II's Theorem for Bernoulli variables; the overfitting example is the inequality log⁡(1−θ)≥−2θ\log(1-\theta) \ge -2\thetalog(1−θ)≥−2θ on [0,1/2][0, 1/2][0,1/2]. The rule of succession is a Beta-function identity provable by integration by parts.

Formalization scope

Parametric families are functions from a parameter type to real-valued probabilities or densities, following the book's convention (p. 344) that P[X=x]P[X = x]P[X=x] denotes either; no measure-theoretic densities are needed except in the two Gaussian-integral items, which use gaussianReal and the i.i.d. law of Mission I, and in the two Bernoulli probability items, which use the Bernoulli law of Mission XIV. Lean's log 0 = 0 is handled explicitly: the EM items assume a positive joint, since with junk logarithms Theorem 24.3 is false (the M-step could pick a parameter with a zero component and inflated FFF), while the entropy terms Qlog⁡QQ\log QQlogQ use the convention 0log⁡0=00\log 0 = 00log0=0 that the book intends; the Bernoulli maximum likelihood statement ranges over θ∈(0,1)\theta \in (0,1)θ∈(0,1); the log-loss decomposition and Gibbs' inequality take the second distribution positive. The M-step is a predicate ("some maximizer"), so Assumption 24.1 is not modeled, and an EM run is any sequence of such steps. The Gaussian maximum likelihood statement requires a nonconstant sample, without which the likelihood is unbounded; the overfitting example is stated for θ⋆≤1/2\theta^\star \le 1/2θ⋆≤1/2, the range on which the book's inequality (1−θ)m≥e−2θm(1-\theta)^m \ge e^{-2\theta m}(1−θ)m≥e−2θm holds. Equation (24.8) is stated as a matrix identity for any symmetric MMM in place of Σ−1\Sigma^{-1}Σ−1; the soft k-means M-step is stated as the weighted-centroid minimization it amounts to.

Not stated: Naive Bayes (24.7), which is a rewriting of Bayes' rule; the mixture density itself and the E-step formula (24.12); the Bayesian derivations (24.16) and maximum a posteriori estimation; Exercise 2.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 24. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • A. P. Dempster, N. M. Laird, D. B. Rubin, Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 39(1), 1977. doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1977.tb01600.x
  • C. F. J. Wu, On the convergence properties of the EM algorithm, Annals of Statistics 11(1), 1983. doi:10.1214/aos/1176346060
  • T. M. Cover, J. A. Thomas, Elements of Information Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2006. doi:10.1002/047174882X
  • C. M. Bishop, Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning, Springer, 2006.
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An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory V: Classification Noise and Statistical QueriesTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 5 of Kearns and Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory (MIT Press, 1994, doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001), asks what happens to PAC learning when the labels are unreliable. In the classification noise model of Angluin and Laird, each label returned by the oracle is flipped independently with a fixed probability η<1/2\eta < 1/2η<1/2. The algorithms of Chapter 1 collapse at once: the elimination algorithm deletes a correct literal on the strength of a single mislabeled example, and the tightest-fit rectangle may not exist. The chapter's remedy is to learn from statistics: an algorithm that forms its hypothesis only from estimates of probabilities of simple events is insensitive to occasional wrong labels. Kearns's statistical query model makes this precise, replacing the example oracle by an oracle that returns the probability of any predicate of a labeled example to within a tolerance, and the main theorem (5.3) shows that every class learnable from statistical queries is PAC learnable in the presence of classification noise. The proof rests on a single identity, Equation (5.2), that expresses the true value of a statistical query in terms of three quantities that can each be estimated from noisy examples, and on the observation that a hypothesis's disagreement with the noisy label is an affine function of its true error, which lets the best of several candidate hypotheses be recognized without clean data.

Setting

The framework is that of Mission I. The noisy example law is that of (x,b)(x, b)(x,b) with x∼Dx \sim Dx∼D and b=c(x)b = c(x)b=c(x) flipped with probability η\etaη. A statistical query is a predicate χ\chiχ of a labeled example with value Pχ=Pr⁡x∼D[χ(x,c(x))=1]P_\chi = \Pr_{x \sim D}[\chi(x, c(x)) = 1]Pχ​=Prx∼D​[χ(x,c(x))=1]. The inputs split into X1X_1X1​, where the label matters to χ\chiχ, and X2X_2X2​, where it does not; p1=D(X1)p_1 = D(X_1)p1​=D(X1​) and D1D_1D1​ is DDD conditioned on X1X_1X1​. For conjunctions over {0,1}n\{0,1\}^n{0,1}n, p0(z)p_0(z)p0​(z) is the probability that a literal zzz is set to 000 and p01(z)p_{01}(z)p01​(z) the probability that it is 000 on a positive example; zzz is significant if p0(z)≥ϵ/8np_0(z) \ge \epsilon/8np0​(z)≥ϵ/8n and harmful if p01(z)≥ϵ/8np_{01}(z) \ge \epsilon/8np01​(z)≥ϵ/8n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Equation (5.2)

For 0≤η<1/20 \le \eta < 1/20≤η<1/2 and every statistical query χ\chiχ,

Pχ=p1⋅Pr⁡EXCNη(c,D1)[χ=1]−η1−2η+Pr⁡EXCNη(c,D)[χ=1∧x∈X2],P_\chi = p_1 \cdot \frac{\Pr_{EX^\eta_{CN}(c, D_1)}[\chi = 1] - \eta}{1 - 2\eta} + \Pr_{EX^\eta_{CN}(c, D)}[\chi = 1 \wedge x \in X_2],Pχ​=p1​⋅1−2ηPrEXCNη​(c,D1​)​[χ=1]−η​+EXCNη​(c,D)Pr​[χ=1∧x∈X2​],

the probabilities on the right being taken under the noisy oracle.

Milestones

The §5.2 analysis behind Theorem 5.2 (the conjunction of all significant, non-harmful literals has error at most ϵ/2\epsilon/2ϵ/2); the product estimate bound of p. 115 (AB−2τ′≤A^B^≤AB+3τ′AB - 2\tau' \le \hat A\hat B \le AB + 3\tau'AB−2τ′≤A^B^≤AB+3τ′); the identity of p. 117 (γh=η+(1−2η) error(h)\gamma_h = \eta + (1 - 2\eta)\,\mathrm{error}(h)γh​=η+(1−2η)error(h)).

Significance

Equation (5.2) is the entire mechanism of noise-tolerant learning in the statistical query model: the noisy oracle cannot be de-noised example by example, but the probability of any predicate can be recovered exactly from noisy probabilities, because on the inputs where the label matters the noise acts as a known affine contraction and on the others it acts not at all. Together with the p. 117 identity, which turns hypothesis selection into a comparison of noisy disagreement rates, and the Chernoff bounds of Mission IV, it yields Theorem 5.3 and hence noise-tolerant algorithms for every class the book has learned so far (conjunctions, decision lists, kkk-CNF). The §5.2 analysis is the first statistical-query algorithm and shows the pattern: a hypothesis defined by thresholds on a few probabilities, with enough slack between the thresholds that estimates suffice. None of this is machine-checked. The formalization fixes the noisy example law on the platform's sample framework and proves the exact identities on which the noise-tolerant simulation depends.

Difficulty

Equation (5.2) is a computation with the pushforward of a product measure: one must express the noisy law on X1X_1X1​ as a mixture of the clean law and its label-flipped image, solve the affine relation for the clean probability, and combine with the restriction to X2X_2X2​, where the flipped and unflipped labels give the same value of χ\chiχ; the degenerate case D(X1)=0D(X_1) = 0D(X1​)=0, in which the conditional measure is zero and the first term vanishes, must be handled separately. The p. 117 identity is the same computation without the split. The §5.2 analysis is two union bounds over the 2n2n2n literals after the observation that a literal of the target is never harmful and that a literal of the hypothesis is never insignificant. The product lemma is elementary arithmetic with a case split at A<τ′A < \tau'A<τ′.

Formalization scope

The noisy oracle is a measure on labeled examples obtained by mapping the product of DDD and a Bernoulli(η\etaη) coin; the conditional D1D_1D1​ is Mathlib's conditional measure; queries are arbitrary measurable predicates of a labeled example, with no tolerance or query-count bookkeeping. Theorem 5.3 itself, the definitions of efficient learnability from statistical queries (Definition 14) and of efficient noisy PAC learnability (Definition 13), Theorem 5.1, Theorem 5.2 as a statement about an algorithm with oracle access, and Corollary 5.4 are not stated: they quantify over query algorithms and their running times, for which this series has no model; the mission carries their exact probabilistic content. The error-propagation analysis of §5.4.2–5.4.3 with tolerance τ/27\tau/27τ/27 and the guessing resolution Δ\DeltaΔ is not stated beyond the product lemma, since the factor 1/(1−2η)1/(1-2\eta)1/(1−2η) is not in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and the book's constant does not account for it. Hypotheses: 0≤η<1/20 \le \eta < 1/20≤η<1/2 for the decomposition, 0≤η≤10 \le \eta \le 10≤η≤1 for the disagreement identity, ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 for the conjunction analysis, all reals in [0,1][0,1][0,1] for the product lemma.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the decomposition is an exact identity for every measurable query, and the conjunction bound is for the exact thresholds ϵ/8n\epsilon/8nϵ/8n with the union bound's ϵ/2\epsilon/2ϵ/2. Welcome contributions: the mixture representation of the noisy law, the restriction of a pushforward to X2X_2X2​, and the two union bounds.

Selected references

  • M. J. Kearns, U. V. Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory, MIT Press, 1994, Chapter 5. doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001
  • D. Angluin, P. Laird, Learning from noisy examples, Machine Learning 2(4), 1988. doi:10.1007/BF00116829
  • M. Kearns, Efficient noise-tolerant learning from statistical queries, Journal of the ACM 45(6), 1998. doi:10.1145/293347.293351
  • M. Kearns, M. Li, Learning in the presence of malicious errors, SIAM Journal on Computing 22(4), 1993. doi:10.1137/0222052
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An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory IV: Weak and Strong Learning, Boosting and Chernoff BoundsTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 4 of Kearns and Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory (MIT Press, 1994, doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001), asks whether the PAC model's demand for arbitrarily small error and confidence is essential. A weak learning algorithm need only, with some fixed positive probability, output a hypothesis that beats random guessing by a fixed margin. Schapire's theorem, the chapter's main result, says that this apparently much weaker requirement is equivalent to the original one: any weak learner can be converted, by running it on carefully filtered distributions and combining its hypotheses by majority votes, into a strong learner. The construction is boosting, which became one of the most influential ideas in machine learning. The chapter proves the equivalence in two steps. Boosting the confidence is elementary: run the learner several times and validate. Boosting the accuracy is the substance: a modest procedure that combines three hypotheses, each with error at most β\betaβ on its own distribution, into a majority with error at most g(β)=3β2−2β3<βg(\beta) = 3\beta^2 - 2\beta^3 < \betag(β)=3β2−2β3<β, applied recursively until the error is driven below the target. The Chernoff bounds of the Appendix, the book's workhorse for estimating probabilities from samples, are what makes the validation steps rigorous.

Setting

The framework is that of Mission I. A class CCC is weakly learnable using HHH if for some advantage γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, confidence δ0>0\delta_0 > 0δ0​>0 and sample size mmm, an algorithm outputs hypotheses in HHH that, for every target in CCC and every distribution, have error at most 1/2−γ1/2 - \gamma1/2−γ with probability at least δ0\delta_0δ0​; the algorithm's prediction L(S)(x)L(S)(x)L(S)(x) is a measurable function of the sample and the instance together, as it is for every algorithm. Given a hypothesis h1h_1h1​, the filtered distribution D2D_2D2​ gives weight 1/21/21/2 to the instances on which h1h_1h1​ errs and 1/21/21/2 to those on which it is correct, preserving relative weights within each part, and D3D_3D3​ is DDD conditioned on h1≠h2h_1 \ne h_2h1​=h2​; the modest procedure outputs majority(h1,h2,h3)\mathrm{majority}(h_1, h_2, h_3)majority(h1​,h2​,h3​). Ternary majority trees over HHH are the closure of HHH under the majority of three. For confidence boosting, kkk independent samples yield kkk hypotheses, and a fresh sample selects the one with the fewest mistakes. Bernoulli trials are mmm independent coin flips with success probability ppp.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.9

If CCC is weakly PAC learnable using measurable hypotheses in HHH, then CCC is PAC learnable using the class of ternary majority trees with leaves from HHH: for all ϵ,δ∈(0,1/2)\epsilon, \delta \in (0, 1/2)ϵ,δ∈(0,1/2) some sample size and some algorithm outputting majority trees achieve error at most ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ, for every target in CCC and every distribution.

Milestones

Theorem 9.2 (the additive and multiplicative Chernoff bounds); the two facts of §4.2 behind confidence boosting (independent runs all fail with probability at most (1−δ0)k(1 - \delta_0)^k(1−δ0​)k; the fewest-mistakes selection loses at most γ\gammaγ with probability at least 1−2ke−mγ2/21 - 2k e^{-m\gamma^2/2}1−2ke−mγ2/2); Lemma 4.1 (the modest procedure: error at most g(β)g(\beta)g(β)).

Significance

Theorem 4.9 is one of the landmark results of learning theory: it shows that the PAC model has no intermediate strength, that Occam learning, weak learning and strong learning coincide, and that the resources of a strong learner can be bounded polylogarithmically in 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ in memory and hypothesis size. Its constructive proof is the first boosting algorithm, ancestor of AdaBoost and of gradient boosting. Lemma 4.1 is the analytic core, a clean inequality about three hypotheses and three distributions in which the filtered distribution is exactly calibrated so that h1h_1h1​ has no advantage on it. The Chernoff bounds are the concentration inequalities invoked throughout the book, and their formalization on the product law of Bernoulli trials makes every later "estimate to within γ\gammaγ with confidence 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ" step reusable. None of these is machine-checked in this form; the boosting theorem in the sample-complexity sense is, to our knowledge, not formalized anywhere.

Difficulty

Lemma 4.1 is a computation with conditional measures: writing errorD\mathrm{error}_DerrorD​ of the majority as the weight of the instances on which h1h_1h1​ and h2h_2h2​ both err plus β3\beta_3β3​ times the weight of their disagreement, mapping weights under D2D_2D2​ back to DDD by the factors 2(1−β1)2(1 - \beta_1)2(1−β1​) and 2β12\beta_12β1​ (Equation (4.1)), and maximizing the resulting polynomial in β1,β2,β3,γ1,γ2\beta_1, \beta_2, \beta_3, \gamma_1, \gamma_2β1​,β2​,β3​,γ1​,γ2​; the degenerate cases where a conditioning event is null must be handled separately. The Chernoff bounds require the exponential moment method on a finite product measure. The confidence-boosting facts are the product bound for independent blocks and Hoeffding plus a union bound. The goal is a genuine construction: from a large sample of DDD one must simulate the recursive algorithm Strong-Learn, whose calls to the weak learner on filtered distributions are served by rejection sampling from the remaining examples, bound the depth of the recursion by the growth of g−1g^{-1}g−1 iterates (Lemma 4.2), bound the number of examples consumed at each node (Lemmas 4.3–4.7) and allocate the confidence over all the places the simulation can fail; then package the result as a deterministic function of a sample of fixed size. An alternative route is available: weak learnability with a fixed sample size forces a finite VC dimension (a class shattering a large set defeats any fixed-size learner on the uniform distribution over it), after which Theorem 3.3 gives a consistent strong learner; but its hypotheses lie in CCC, not in the majority trees over HHH, so it does not prove the stated conclusion.

Formalization scope

The weak-learning hypothesis is the book's with constants γ,δ0\gamma, \delta_0γ,δ0​ in place of the inverse polynomials, which is what the definition says for a fixed class; hypotheses in HHH are required to be measurable, and the weak learner jointly measurable in the sample and the instance, because Strong-Learn runs it on distributions filtered through its own earlier outputs and the analysis integrates over the earlier samples (for an arbitrary function the combined failure event need not be measurable, and outer-measure bounds on separate runs do not combine); the conclusion is the book's hypothesis class, the majority trees over HHH, built as an inductive predicate. Filtered distributions use Mathlib's conditional measure, so that a null conditioning event yields the zero measure; Lemma 4.1 is stated for 0≤β≤1/20 \le \beta \le 1/20≤β≤1/2 and holds in those degenerate cases too. The confidence-boosting milestone states the two probabilistic facts rather than the composite algorithm, whose sample indexing across runs and validation is bookkeeping; the selection rule is any rule minimizing mistakes. Chernoff's bounds are stated with non-strict inequalities in the events, for 0≤p≤10 \le p \le 10≤p≤1 and 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1. Running time, the recursion-depth and sample-size lemmas with unspecified constants (4.2–4.8), and Exercises 4.1–4.3 are not stated.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the weak-learning guarantee is uniform over all targets and distributions with an advantage strictly positive, the strong conclusion is for every ϵ,δ\epsilon, \deltaϵ,δ, and Lemma 4.1 requires all three error bounds on their respective distributions. Welcome contributions: Lemma 4.1 itself, the Hoeffding bound on the product law, and the rejection-sampling lemma that turns a sample of DDD into a sample of a filtered distribution.

Selected references

  • M. J. Kearns, U. V. Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory, MIT Press, 1994, Chapter 4 and Chapter 9. doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001
  • R. E. Schapire, The strength of weak learnability, Machine Learning 5(2), 1990. doi:10.1007/BF00116037
  • Y. Freund, Boosting a weak learning algorithm by majority, Information and Computation 121(2), 1995. doi:10.1006/inco.1995.1136
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963. doi:10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
  • H. Chernoff, A measure of asymptotic efficiency for tests of a hypothesis based on the sum of observations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23(4), 1952. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177729330
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Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices VI: Bandit Sampling Processes, Favourable Priors and Invariance of the IndexTextbook

Motivation

The bandit processes that motivated the index theorem are sampling processes: an arm is a population from which one draws i.i.d. observations whose distribution has an unknown parameter, and each draw both earns something and teaches something. Chapter 7 of Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices (2nd ed., doi:10.1002/9780470980033), develops the theory of such processes in the Bayesian setting: the state of the process is the current posterior for the parameter, continuing it samples the next value from the predictive distribution and moves to the new posterior. When the observations are themselves the rewards one has a reward process, the classical Bayesian multi-armed bandit; when the aim is to find as quickly as possible an individual whose measurement reaches a target TTT (a compound active enough to warrant further testing, in the drug-screening problem from which the index theorem came) one has a target process, which is a job that completes when the target is reached. Two questions organize the chapter. When can the index be written down without any optimization, and when do symmetries of the model reduce the index to a function of fewer variables? The first is answered by the notion of a favourable prior (Section 7.3): if no run of observations below the target can raise the current probability of success, then the index is that probability, exactly, by Proposition 2.7. The second is answered by the invariance theorems of Section 7.4: a location parameter with a conjugate prior gives ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x + \nu(0, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n), a scale parameter gives ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ ν(1,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x\,\nu(1, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉν(1,n), and for target processes the target can be absorbed into the state, ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)\nu(\bar x, n, T) = \nu(\bar x - T, n, 0)ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0). These identities are what make the tables of Chapter 8 one-dimensional.

Setting

A sampling model consists of a likelihood f(⋅∣θ)f(\cdot \mid \theta)f(⋅∣θ), a family of priors π(⋅∣p)\pi(\cdot \mid p)π(⋅∣p) on the parameter indexed by the parameters ppp of a conjugate family, and the Bayes update p↦pxp \mapsto p_xp↦px​ of those parameters after observing xxx; the family is conjugate if the posterior of π(⋅∣p)\pi(\cdot \mid p)π(⋅∣p) given X=xX = xX=x is π(⋅∣px)\pi(\cdot \mid p_x)π(⋅∣px​). The predictive distribution is f(⋅∣p)=∫f(⋅∣θ)π(dθ∣p)f(\cdot \mid p) = \int f(\cdot \mid \theta)\pi(d\theta \mid p)f(⋅∣p)=∫f(⋅∣θ)π(dθ∣p). The reward process moves from ppp to pxp_xpx​ with x∼f(⋅∣p)x \sim f(\cdot \mid p)x∼f(⋅∣p) and earns r(p)=∫xf(x∣p)dxr(p) = \int x f(x \mid p)dxr(p)=∫xf(x∣p)dx. The target process with target TTT moves to the completion state CCC if x≥Tx \ge Tx≥T and to pxp_xpx​ otherwise, earning the current probability of success r(p)=f([T,∞)∣p)r(p) = f([T, \infty) \mid p)r(p)=f([T,∞)∣p), and 000 in CCC. A state ppp is favourable if r(px1⋯xm)≤r(p)r(p_{x_1 \cdots x_m}) \le r(p)r(px1​⋯xm​​)≤r(p) for every finite sequence of observations xi<Tx_i < Txi​<T. For the invariance theorems the parameters are (xˉ,n)(\bar x, n)(xˉ,n) with the update ((nxˉ+x)/(n+1),n+1)((n\bar x + x)/(n+1), n+1)((nxˉ+x)/(n+1),n+1); μ\muμ is a location parameter of the likelihood if f(⋅∣μ+c)f(\cdot \mid \mu + c)f(⋅∣μ+c) is f(⋅∣μ)f(\cdot \mid \mu)f(⋅∣μ) shifted by ccc, and xˉ\bar xxˉ is a location parameter of the prior family if π(⋅∣xˉ+c,n)\pi(\cdot \mid \bar x + c, n)π(⋅∣xˉ+c,n) is π(⋅∣xˉ,n)\pi(\cdot \mid \bar x, n)π(⋅∣xˉ,n) shifted by ccc; scale parameters are defined with x↦bxx \mapsto bxx↦bx, b>0b > 0b>0. The Gittins index is that of the Bandit Algorithms model on these chains.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.9 (in the form of Corollary 7.10)

If μ\muμ is a location parameter of a reward process with a conjugate prior family in which xˉ\bar xxˉ is a location parameter and the parameters update as the sample mean and count, then for every n>0n > 0n>0

r(xˉ+c,n)=r(xˉ,n)+candν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n),r(\bar x + c, n) = r(\bar x, n) + c \quad\text{and}\quad \nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x + \nu(0, n),r(xˉ+c,n)=r(xˉ,n)+candν(xˉ,n)=xˉ+ν(0,n),

under the standing assumptions that the observations have a mean and the discounted rewards of the chain are integrable.

Milestones

Proposition 7.4 (favourable state: ν=r\nu = rν=r); Example 7.5 (Bernoulli target process, ν(α,β)=α/(α+β)\nu(\alpha, \beta) = \alpha/(\alpha + \beta)ν(α,β)=α/(α+β)); Example 7.6 (normal target process with known variance, ν(xˉ,n)=Φ(xˉ(1+n−1)−1/2)\nu(\bar x, n) = \Phi(\bar x (1 + n^{-1})^{-1/2})ν(xˉ,n)=Φ(xˉ(1+n−1)−1/2) for xˉ≥0\bar x \ge 0xˉ≥0); Theorem 7.11 (scale parameter: ν(xˉ,n)=xˉ ν(1,n)\nu(\bar x, n) = \bar x\,\nu(1, n)ν(xˉ,n)=xˉν(1,n)); Theorem 7.17 (target process with a location parameter: ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)\nu(\bar x, n, T) = \nu(\bar x - T, n, 0)ν(xˉ,n,T)=ν(xˉ−T,n,0)).

Significance

Theorem 7.9 and its companions are the reason the Gittins index of the normal reward process is tabulated as a function of nnn alone and that of the exponential process as a function of nnn and one ratio; every computational method of Chapter 8 starts by reducing the state space with them. Proposition 7.4 is the source of every closed-form index in the book: it identifies the states in which sampling for information is worthless, so that the index collapses to the immediate expected reward, and Examples 7.5 and 7.6 show that for the Bernoulli target process this is every state and for the normal target process every state with a nonnegative posterior mean. The formalization gives the platform its first Bayesian sampling-process model, in which the state is a posterior and conjugacy is stated through the posterior kernel of the likelihood, and its first index identities on unbounded-reward chains, which is where the integrability assumptions of the Bandit Algorithms model do real work.

None of this is machine-checked. The invariance theorems are stated in the proper-prior form of the corollaries, with the model's symmetry as hypotheses, so that they apply to any conjugate family with the stated structure rather than to a particular density.

Difficulty

The invariance theorems require showing that the chain of parameters from the shifted (scaled) state is the image of the chain from the original state under the shift (scaling) of trajectories, which is an equivariance of the Ionescu–Tulcea construction with respect to a measurable bijection commuting with the kernel; that stopping times are carried to stopping times; that the discounted reward of a stopping time shifts by ccc times the discounted time; and that the supremum of a nonempty bounded set of reals shifts and scales accordingly. Boundedness of the set of ratios is where the integrability assumption enters. Proposition 7.4 is the chain-level statement that all rewards along every trajectory from a favourable state are at most r(p)r(p)r(p), which needs an induction on the trajectory law of the target chain, followed by the argument of Proposition 2.7. Example 7.6 needs the monotonicity of xˉm(1+1/(n+m))−1/2\bar x_m (1 + 1/(n+m))^{-1/2}xˉm​(1+1/(n+m))−1/2 in the observations below the target, a small inequality, plus the Gaussian probability of a half-line as the current probability of success; Example 7.5 needs only that α/(α+β+m)\alpha/(\alpha + \beta + m)α/(α+β+m) decreases.

Formalization scope

The sampling model is a structure with Markov likelihood and prior kernels and a jointly measurable update; the predictive distribution is the kernel composition; conjugacy is an almost-everywhere identity between Mathlib's posterior of the likelihood with respect to the prior and the prior at the updated parameters, and is carried as a hypothesis of the invariance theorems and of Proposition 7.4 so that their subject is the Bayesian process. For the parameters (xˉ,n)(\bar x, n)(xˉ,n) it is required on n>0n > 0n>0 only (IsConjugateOn): a proper prior has n>0n > 0n>0, and conjugacy at every (xˉ,n)∈R2(\bar x, n) \in \mathbb{R}^2(xˉ,n)∈R2 is impossible with a location parameter, since at n=−1n = -1n=−1 the update divides by zero and sends every observation to one state, which made the first draft's location theorems vacuous. The chains are built with Kernel.map of product kernels, so their measurability is structural, and the target process lives on P ⊕ Unit with the completion state absorbing. The book's improper priors are replaced by proper conjugate families with the location or scale structure of Corollaries 7.10 and 7.12, as those corollaries do; the discrete-time correction factor of Section 2.8 is not applied since it cancels in every identity stated. The two examples are built directly from a uniform or Gaussian seed with the transition probabilities the book computes (the beta and normal posterior computations of Exercise 7.1 are not formalized). Hypotheses: a∈(0,1)a \in (0, 1)a∈(0,1); integrable observations and L&S Assumption 35.6 for the reward processes; n>0n > 0n>0 for the invariance theorems and xˉ>0\bar x > 0xˉ>0 for the scale theorem; α,β>0\alpha, \beta > 0α,β>0; xˉ≥0\bar x \ge 0xˉ≥0 and n>0n > 0n>0 for the normal example.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the indices are the genuine suprema of the Bandit Algorithms definition with integrable rewards, the update rule is the book's and not a free parameter, and the favourability condition ranges over all finite observation sequences. Welcome contributions: the equivariance of the trajectory measure under a state bijection commuting with the kernel, the transport of stopping times, and the reward bound along the target chain from a favourable state.

Selected references

  • J. Gittins, K. Glazebrook, R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011, Chapter 7. doi:10.1002/9780470980033
  • J. C. Gittins, D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani, ed.), North-Holland, 1974.
  • D. M. Jones, Search Procedures for Industrial Chemical Research, PhD thesis, University of Wales, 1975.
  • H. Raiffa, R. Schlaifer, Applied Statistical Decision Theory, Harvard University Press, 1961.
  • T. S. Ferguson, Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach, Academic Press, 1967.
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapters 34–35. doi:10.1017/9781108571401
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AnalysisMathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

CODATA 2022: exactly known constants of the revised SI and the least-squares adjustmentResearch Paper

Motivation

Since the 2019 revision of the SI, seven constants of nature have fixed, exact numerical values: the caesium hyperfine frequency ΔνCs\Delta\nu_{\mathrm{Cs}}ΔνCs​, the speed of light ccc, the Planck constant hhh, the elementary charge eee, the Boltzmann constant kkk, the Avogadro constant NAN_ANA​ and the luminous efficacy KcdK_{\mathrm{cd}}Kcd​. Every other constant is either measured, and then carries an uncertainty, or is a closed-form expression in the seven, and is then known exactly. The CODATA 2022 adjustment (Mohr, Newell, Taylor and Tiesinga, Rev. Mod. Phys. 97, 025002, 2025) is the authoritative statement of which constants fall on which side of that line, and of the statistical procedure that produces the recommended values of the measured ones.

The exactly known side of the line is pure mathematics: the tabulated value of the Stefan-Boltzmann constant, of the radiation constants, of the molar gas constant and of the Faraday constant are theorems about π\piπ, an integral, and rational arithmetic - not measurements. The measured side rests on one statistical object, the weighted linear least-squares fit of N=133N=133N=133 input data to M=79M=79M=79 adjusted constants, together with the diagnostics (χ2\chi^2χ2, the Birge ratio, normalized residuals, expansion factors) the task group uses to decide that the fit is acceptable. This mission formalizes both.

Setting

Write hhh, ccc, kkk, eee, NAN_ANA​ for the numerical values of the defining constants in coherent SI units, and ℏ=h/2π\hbar = h/2\piℏ=h/2π. The spectral radiance of a blackbody at thermodynamic temperature TTT, per unit frequency, is Planck's function

Bν(T,ν)  =  2hν3c2 1ehν/kT−1,B_\nu(T,\nu) \;=\; \frac{2h\nu^3}{c^2}\,\frac{1}{e^{h\nu/kT}-1},Bν​(T,ν)=c22hν3​ehν/kT−11​,

and per unit wavelength

Bλ(T,λ)  =  2hc2λ5 1ehc/(λkT)−1.B_\lambda(T,\lambda) \;=\; \frac{2hc^2}{\lambda^5}\,\frac{1}{e^{hc/(\lambda k T)}-1}.Bλ​(T,λ)=λ52hc2​ehc/(λkT)−11​.

The derived constants named in Tables XXXII and XXXIII of the paper are σ=(π2/60)k4/ℏ3c2\sigma = (\pi^2/60)k^4/\hbar^3c^2σ=(π2/60)k4/ℏ3c2 (Stefan-Boltzmann), c1=2πhc2c_1 = 2\pi hc^2c1​=2πhc2 and c2=hc/kc_2 = hc/kc2​=hc/k (radiation constants), R=NAkR = N_AkR=NA​k (molar gas), F=NAeF = N_AeF=NA​e (Faraday), KJ=2e/hK_J = 2e/hKJ​=2e/h (Josephson) and RK=h/e2R_K = h/e^2RK​=h/e2 (von Klitzing).

For the adjustment, let A∈RN×MA \in \mathbb{R}^{N\times M}A∈RN×M be the design matrix of the linearized observational equations, z∈RNz \in \mathbb{R}^Nz∈RN the input data and W∈RN×NW \in \mathbb{R}^{N\times N}W∈RN×N the weight matrix - the inverse of the covariance matrix of the data, symmetric and positive definite. The fit minimizes

χ2(x)  =  (z−Ax)TW(z−Ax),x∈RM,\chi^2(x) \;=\; (z - Ax)^{\mathsf T} W (z - Ax), \qquad x \in \mathbb{R}^M,χ2(x)=(z−Ax)TW(z−Ax),x∈RM,

with ν=N−M\nu = N - Mν=N−M degrees of freedom, Birge ratio RB=(χ2/ν)1/2R_B = (\chi^2/\nu)^{1/2}RB​=(χ2/ν)1/2 and normalized residuals ri=(Xi−⟨Xi⟩)/u(Xi)r_i = (X_i - \langle X_i\rangle)/u(X_i)ri​=(Xi​−⟨Xi​⟩)/u(Xi​).

Formalization targets

Goal

∫0∞π Bν(T,ν) dν  =  σT4(T>0),σ=π260k4ℏ3c2.\int_0^{\infty} \pi\,B_\nu(T,\nu)\,\mathrm{d}\nu \;=\; \sigma T^4 \qquad (T>0), \qquad \sigma = \frac{\pi^2}{60}\frac{k^4}{\hbar^3c^2}.∫0∞​πBν​(T,ν)dν=σT4(T>0),σ=60π2​ℏ3c2k4​.

The goal fixes no digits: it asserts that the constant appearing in the tabulated closed form is exactly the one produced by integrating Planck's law over the spectrum and over a Lambertian hemisphere. The numerical enclosure of σ\sigmaσ is a separate, weaker milestone, so that the goal survives any change of tabulated digits.

Supporting targets

∫0∞x3ex−1 dx=π415,σ=2π5k415h3c2,R=NAk,F=NAe,\int_0^\infty \frac{x^3}{e^x-1}\,\mathrm{d}x = \frac{\pi^4}{15}, \qquad \sigma = \frac{2\pi^5k^4}{15h^3c^2}, \qquad R = N_Ak, \qquad F = N_Ae,∫0∞​ex−1x3​dx=15π4​,σ=15h3c22π5k4​,R=NA​k,F=NA​e,

together with the numerical enclosures of σ\sigmaσ, of Wien's displacement constants b=c2/x5b = c_2/x_5b=c2​/x5​ and b′=x3k/hb' = x_3k/hb′=x3​k/h (where x5x_5x5​, x3x_3x3​ solve x=5(1−e−x)x = 5(1-e^{-x})x=5(1−e−x) and x=3(1−e−x)x = 3(1-e^{-x})x=3(1−e−x)), and the identity KJ2RK=4/hK_J^2R_K = 4/hKJ2​RK​=4/h.

On the statistical side:

χ2(x)  =  χ2(x^)+(x−x^)TATWA (x−x^)wheneverATWA x^=ATWz,\chi^2(x) \;=\; \chi^2(\hat x) + (x-\hat x)^{\mathsf T}A^{\mathsf T}WA\,(x-\hat x) \quad\text{whenever}\quad A^{\mathsf T}WA\,\hat x = A^{\mathsf T}Wz,χ2(x)=χ2(x^)+(x−x^)TATWA(x−x^)wheneverATWAx^=ATWz,

the equivalence of minimality with the normal equations, the closed form x^=(ATWA)−1ATWz\hat x = (A^{\mathsf T}WA)^{-1}A^{\mathsf T}Wzx^=(ATWA)−1ATWz when ATWAA^{\mathsf T}WAATWA is invertible, and the behaviour of χ2\chi^2χ2, RBR_BRB​ and rir_iri​ under an expansion factor fff applied to the uncertainties.

Significance

The exact-constant statements are what makes the tabulated values checkable rather than authoritative: a reader who accepts the SI definitions can, in principle, re-derive R=8.314 462 618 153 24 J mol−1K−1R = 8.314\,462\,618\,153\,24\ \mathrm{J\,mol^{-1}K^{-1}}R=8.31446261815324 Jmol−1K−1 and F=96 485.332 123 310 0184 C mol−1F = 96\,485.332\,123\,310\,0184\ \mathrm{C\,mol^{-1}}F=96485.3321233100184 Cmol−1 by arithmetic, and σ=5.670 374 419…×10−8 W m−2K−4\sigma = 5.670\,374\,419\ldots\times10^{-8}\ \mathrm{W\,m^{-2}K^{-4}}σ=5.670374419…×10−8 Wm−2K−4 from Planck's law and ζ(4)\zeta(4)ζ(4). Formalizing them turns "in principle" into a machine-checked derivation from the seven fixed numbers.

The least-squares statements make precise what the adjustment is, independently of the 133 data of this particular round: that the recommended values are the unique minimizer of a quadratic form, that the normal equations characterize it, and that multiplying a group of uncertainties by an expansion factor fff - the device used in 2022 with f=1.7f = 1.7f=1.7, 2.52.52.5 and 3.93.93.9 - rescales χ2\chi^2χ2 by f−2f^{-2}f−2, the Birge ratio by f−1f^{-1}f−1 and the residuals by f−1f^{-1}f−1, without moving the fitted values. None of these statements is new mathematics; none of them, as far as the catalog shows, is currently available as a machine-checked statement about the CODATA quantities.

Difficulty

Two hard points. First, ∫0∞x3/(ex−1) dx=π4/15\int_0^\infty x^3/(e^x-1)\,\mathrm{d}x = \pi^4/15∫0∞​x3/(ex−1)dx=π4/15: the obvious route expands 1/(ex−1)1/(e^x-1)1/(ex−1) as a geometric series and integrates term by term, which needs a dominated convergence or monotone convergence argument plus the value ζ(4)=π4/90\zeta(4)=\pi^4/90ζ(4)=π4/90; interchanging the sum and the integral is the step that must be justified, not assumed. The goal then needs this together with a change of variables x=hν/kTx = h\nu/kTx=hν/kT on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) and an integrability argument for the original integrand.

Second, the numerical enclosures. 5.670 374 419×10−8<σ5.670\,374\,419\times10^{-8} < \sigma5.670374419×10−8<σ requires certified rational bounds on π5\pi^5π5; the Wien constants require certified bounds on a transcendental root, obtained from interval evaluation of e−xe^{-x}e−x at rational points plus monotonicity of x−n(1−e−x)x - n(1-e^{-x})x−n(1−e−x). Floating-point evaluation proves nothing here.

The least-squares milestones are routine linear algebra, with one subtlety: the decomposition identity needs symmetry of WWW, and the characterization of minimizers needs positive definiteness, so both hypotheses are carried explicitly.

Formalization scope

All physical quantities are plain real numbers: each constant is the numerical value of the quantity in the coherent SI unit named in its docstring, and the code carries no units. The defining constants are given by the exact decimal literals of Table XXXII, so they are exact rationals; ℏ\hbarℏ is defined as h/2πh/2\pih/2π and is therefore irrational.

Planck's function is a total function of two real arguments. Outside the physical regime it returns junk rather than failing - at T=0T = 0T=0 the exponent is 000, the denominator e0−1=0e^0 - 1 = 0e0−1=0, and Lean's division returns 000 - so every statement about it carries 0<T0 < T0<T and a positivity hypothesis on the spectral variable. The goal's integral is the Bochner integral over (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) with respect to Lebesgue measure; it is not trivially true by non-integrability, since the integrand is integrable for T>0T>0T>0.

The adjustment is formalized over Fin N\mathrm{Fin}\,NFinN and Fin M\mathrm{Fin}\,MFinM with an arbitrary design matrix AAA and an arbitrary weight matrix WWW, hypotheses on WWW (Hermitian, positive definite) stated where they are used rather than baked into the definition; ν=N−M\nu = N-Mν=N−M is an integer, not a truncated natural number.

Contributions welcome: the ζ(4)\zeta(4)ζ(4) integral and the interval-arithmetic enclosures are reusable well beyond this mission, as are the least-squares statements.

Selected references

  • P. J. Mohr, D. B. Newell, B. N. Taylor, E. Tiesinga, CODATA recommended values of the fundamental physical constants: 2022, Rev. Mod. Phys. 97, 025002 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1103/RevModPhys.97.025002
  • Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, The International System of Units (SI), 9th edition (2019). https://www.bipm.org/en/publications/si-brochure
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning XIV: Finite Markov Decision Processes and Bellman's EquationsTextbook

Motivation

Reinforcement learning formalizes a scenario supervised learning cannot: an agent that actively interacts with an environment, choosing actions that change both the state it observes next and the reward it receives, rather than passively receiving an i.i.d. labeled sample. Every practical treatment of this scenario — from classical dynamic programming to modern deep reinforcement learning — is built on the Markov decision process (MDP), a model in which the effect of an action depends only on the current state, not on the full history that led to it. Two questions define the theory this mission covers: given a fixed way of acting (a policy), what value does it obtain, and how is that value actually computed rather than merely characterized as the solution of a fixed-point equation? Mohri, Rostamizadeh and Talwalkar's chapter 17 answers both for the stationary, infinite-horizon discounted case, and this mission targets its two central results: that a fixed policy's value is not just characterized but uniquely determined by a linear system with an explicit closed-form solution (Theorem 17.10), and that the optimal value function — obtained instead by choosing the best action at every state — can be computed by an iterative algorithm guaranteed to converge regardless of where it starts (Theorem 17.11).

Setting

A (finite) Markov decision process consists of a finite set of states SSS, a finite set of actions AAA, a transition kernel P[s′∣s,a]P[s'\mid s,a]P[s′∣s,a] giving the distribution over the next state s′s's′ after taking action aaa at state sss, and an expected reward E[r(s,a)]\mathbb E[r(s,a)]E[r(s,a)] for that transition. A (stationary) policy π:S→Δ(A)\pi:S\to\Delta(A)π:S→Δ(A) assigns each state a distribution over actions — possibly, but not necessarily, a point mass on a single action. Fixing π\piπ turns the MDP into an ordinary Markov chain on SSS: at each step the agent is at some state sss, draws a∼π(s)a\sim\pi(s)a∼π(s), receives (expected) reward E[r(s,a)]\mathbb E[r(s,a)]E[r(s,a)], and moves to a state drawn from P[⋅∣s,a]P[\cdot\mid s,a]P[⋅∣s,a]. For a discount factor γ∈[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1)γ∈[0,1), the value of π\piπ at sss is the expected discounted sum of future rewards starting from sss,

Vπ(s)=Eat∼π(st)[∑t=0+∞γtr(st,at)  ∣  s0=s],V_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_{a_t\sim\pi(s_t)}\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{+\infty}\gamma^t r(s_t,a_t) \;\Big|\; s_0=s\Big],Vπ​(s)=Eat​∼π(st​)​[t=0∑+∞​γtr(st​,at​)​s0​=s],

and the state-action value function Qπ(s,a)Q_\pi(s,a)Qπ​(s,a) is the analogous quantity for taking aaa at sss and then following π\piπ. Marginalizing the raw kernel and reward over the mixed action π(s)\pi(s)π(s) gives the induced transition matrix Ps,s′=P[s′∣s,π(s)]=∑aπ(s)(a)P[s′∣s,a]P_{s,s'}=P[s'\mid s,\pi(s)]=\sum_a \pi(s)(a) P[s'\mid s,a]Ps,s′​=P[s′∣s,π(s)]=∑a​π(s)(a)P[s′∣s,a] and induced reward vector Rs=E[r(s,π(s))]=∑aπ(s)(a) E[r(s,a)]R_s=\mathbb E[r(s,\pi(s))]=\sum_a\pi(s)(a)\,\mathbb E[r(s,a)]Rs​=E[r(s,π(s))]=∑a​π(s)(a)E[r(s,a)] — the objects that turn π\piπ's value into a genuinely linear-algebraic quantity. A policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal if Vπ∗(s)≥Vπ(s)V_{\pi^*}(s)\ge V_\pi(s)Vπ∗​(s)≥Vπ​(s) for every policy π\piπ and every state sss; write V∗V^*V∗ for its value function.

Formalization targets

Theorem 17.10 (goal). For a finite MDP and a fixed policy π\piπ, the matrix I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP (with PPP the policy-induced transition matrix) is invertible, and π\piπ's value function is the unique solution of the Bellman equations, given in closed form by

Vπ=(I−γP)−1R.V_\pi = (I-\gamma P)^{-1} R.Vπ​=(I−γP)−1R.

Proposition 17.9 (milestone). The value function itself satisfies the linear system that Theorem 17.10 solves:

∀s∈S,Vπ(s)=Ea∼π(s)[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′P[s′∣s,π(s)] Vπ(s′).\forall s\in S,\quad V_\pi(s) = \mathbb E_{a\sim\pi(s)}[r(s,a)] + \gamma\sum_{s'} P[s'\mid s,\pi(s)]\,V_\pi(s').∀s∈S,Vπ​(s)=Ea∼π(s)​[r(s,a)]+γs′∑​P[s′∣s,π(s)]Vπ​(s′).

Theorem 17.7 (milestone). A policy π\piπ is optimal if and only if it places probability only on QπQ_\piQπ​-maximizing actions: for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a) with π(s)(a)>0\pi(s)(a)>0π(s)(a)>0, a∈argmax⁡a′Qπ(s,a′)a\in \operatorname{argmax}_{a'} Q_\pi(s,a')a∈argmaxa′​Qπ​(s,a′).

Theorem 17.11 (milestone). The Bellman optimality operator Φ\PhiΦ, [Φ(V)](s)=max⁡a{E[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′P[s′∣s,a]V(s′)}[\Phi(V)](s)=\max_{a} \{\mathbb E[r(s,a)]+\gamma\sum_{s'}P[s'\mid s,a]V(s')\}[Φ(V)](s)=maxa​{E[r(s,a)]+γ∑s′​P[s′∣s,a]V(s′)}, is a γ\gammaγ-contraction for ∥⋅∥∞\lVert\cdot\rVert_\infty∥⋅∥∞​; consequently, for any starting vector V0V_0V0​, the value-iteration sequence Vn+1=Φ(Vn)V_{n+1}=\Phi(V_n)Vn+1​=Φ(Vn​) converges to a fixed point of Φ\PhiΦ.

Significance

Theorem 17.10 is what makes policy evaluation on a finite MDP an exact, finite computation rather than an infinite limit: instead of summing an infinite discounted series or solving an implicit fixed-point equation numerically, a single ∣S∣×∣S∣|S|\times|S|∣S∣×∣S∣ matrix inversion gives the policy's value at every state simultaneously. It is also the base case every planning algorithm in the chapter builds on: policy iteration alternates optimizing a policy with exactly this evaluation step. Theorem 17.11 gives the complementary guarantee for the harder problem of finding the optimal value function directly, without fixing a policy first: value iteration converges from any starting point, with a convergence rate (O(log⁡(1/ϵ))O(\log(1/\epsilon))O(log(1/ϵ)) iterations for ϵ\epsilonϵ-accuracy) that follows from the same contraction argument. Together, the two results are the mathematical content behind why dynamic-programming planning for finite MDPs is tractable at all — the discount factor γ<1\gamma<1γ<1, not any structural assumption on rewards or transitions, is what buys both the uniqueness in Theorem 17.10 and the convergence in Theorem 17.11. Formalizing them requires reproducing this linear-algebraic and metric content precisely, not just asserting the conclusions: an invertibility claim asserted without the operator-norm argument, or a convergence claim without the contraction property, would state something true by fiat rather than the book's actual result. No faithful prior art exists on the platform for this exact model (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The obvious shortcut for Theorem 17.10 is to assert I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP is invertible without proof — true, but not what the book does, and not informative about why it holds. The genuine content is that PPP, being row-stochastic (every row of PPP sums to exactly 111, since π(s)\pi(s)π(s) and P[⋅∣s,a]P[\cdot\mid s,a]P[⋅∣s,a] are both proper distributions), has operator norm ∥P∥∞=1\lVert P\rVert_\infty=1∥P∥∞​=1 exactly, so ∥γP∥∞=γ<1\lVert\gamma P\rVert_\infty=\gamma<1∥γP∥∞​=γ<1 strictly; this rules out 111 as an eigenvalue of γP\gamma PγP, which is exactly what invertibility of I−γPI-\gamma PI−γP requires. The same γ<1\gamma<1γ<1 fact, applied differently, drives Theorem 17.11: showing Φ\PhiΦ is γ\gammaγ-Lipschitz requires bounding Φ(V)(s)−Φ(U)(s)\Phi(V)(s)-\Phi(U)(s)Φ(V)(s)−Φ(U)(s) by comparing the maximizing action for VVV against the same action's value under UUU (not UUU's own maximizer), since the two suprema need not be attained at the same action — a step easy to state incorrectly as a direct comparison of two maxima. Both theorems fail if γ=1\gamma=1γ=1 is allowed: the discounted setting's central asset, a strict contraction, disappears exactly at that boundary.

Formalization scope

States and actions are modeled as finite types (Fintype S, Fintype A); the raw kernel and reward P : S → A → S → ℝ, Er : S → A → ℝ are unconstrained functions, with IsTransitionKernel asserting the required distribution property explicitly rather than assuming it silently. A policy is π : S → A → ℝ with IsPolicy π asserting π s is a distribution over A for every s — deliberately not π : S → A or a PMF-valued function, since Theorem 17.7's own quantifier ("for any pair (s,a) with π(s)(a) > 0") requires treating π(s) as a genuine mixture. PolicyValue is defined as the actual infinite discounted expectation (via an explicit state-occupation-distribution recursion), not as the Bellman fixed point — so that Proposition 17.9 (the value function satisfies the linear system) and Theorem 17.10 (that system has a unique, invertible-matrix solution) are both non-vacuous claims about the same object, rather than one being definitionally true of the other. The trivializing formalization this rules out is asserting IsUnit (1 - γ • P) as a bare hypothesis, or defining V_π as (1-γP)⁻¹R and calling the resulting identity a theorem; both would erase the mission's actual content. Two platform modules model related MDPs (BertsekasSSPModel, a stochastic-shortest-path model with a termination-probability deficit rather than exact row-stochasticity, and FoundationsRL.RLBasics, a finite-horizon episodic model indexed by layer) — neither specializes exactly to this chapter's stationary, always-continuing, infinite-horizon discounted convention, so every definition here is drafted fresh rather than imported. This chunk covers §17.2–17.4.2 (the MDP model, policy value, Bellman's equations, value and policy iteration); §17.4.3 (the linear-programming formulation) and §17.5 (stochastic-approximation learning algorithms — TD(0), Q-learning, SARSA) are out of scope, since they require a stochastic-approximation convergence substrate this mission does not build.

Selected references

  • Mohri, M., Rostamizadeh, A., and Talwalkar, A. Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., chapter 17. MIT Press, 2018.
  • Bellman, R. Dynamic Programming. Princeton University Press, 1957.
  • Puterman, M. L. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, 1994.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Orders I: The Usual Stochastic Order and Its Coupling CharacterizationTextbook

Comparing random outcomes without comparing numbers

Operations research and applied probability are full of questions of the shape "is X riskier, larger, or later than Y?" when X and Y are random: two queueing disciplines' waiting times, two inventory policies' shortfall, two insurance portfolios' claim size. Comparing their means answers a weaker question than the modeler usually wants, since two distributions can share a mean while one is uniformly the "worse" one to face. Shaked and Shanthikumar's Stochastic Orders (Springer, 2007) is the standard reference for the family of orders built to make "X is stochastically no larger than Y" precise, and this mission formalizes the foundational member of that family: the usual stochastic order, together with its central structural theorem.

The usual stochastic order

Let XXX be a real-valued random variable on a probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ), and let YYY be a real-valued random variable on a (possibly different) probability space (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν). XXX is smaller than YYY in the usual stochastic order, written X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y, if

P{X>x}≤P{Y>x}for every x∈(−∞,∞).P\{X > x\} \le P\{Y > x\} \quad \text{for every } x \in (-\infty,\infty).P{X>x}≤P{Y>x}for every x∈(−∞,∞).

Equivalently, P{X≤x}≥P{Y≤x}P\{X \le x\} \ge P\{Y \le x\}P{X≤x}≥P{Y≤x} for every xxx: YYY's cumulative distribution function never exceeds XXX's. Two features of the definition matter for everything that follows. First, it is a comparison of distributions, not of jointly defined variables — XXX and YYY need not live on the same probability space, and the order depends only on their laws. Second, the inequality must hold for every threshold xxx simultaneously; it is not a comparison of two summary statistics such as means or medians, and a distribution can fail X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y even while E[X]≤E[Y]E[X] \le E[Y]E[X]≤E[Y].

A closely related order compares residual lifetimes rather than raw tail probabilities. XXX is smaller than YYY in the hazard rate order, written X≤hrYX \le_{hr} YX≤hr​Y, if the survival functions Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}\bar F(x) = P\{X>x\}Fˉ(x)=P{X>x}, Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x}\bar G(x) = P\{Y>x\}Gˉ(x)=P{Y>x} satisfy Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x)\bar F(x)\bar G(y) \ge \bar F(y)\bar G(x)Fˉ(x)Gˉ(y)≥Fˉ(y)Gˉ(x) for all x≤yx \le yx≤y — the general, density-free form of the condition that for absolutely continuous distributions reduces to a pointwise comparison of hazard rates r(t)=f(t)/Fˉ(t)r(t) = f(t)/\bar F(t)r(t)=f(t)/Fˉ(t). It is one of several stronger orders (alongside the likelihood ratio order) that the book shows all imply ≤st\le_{st}≤st​, and it is the mission's second definition.

Formalization targets

Goal: the coupling characterization (Theorem 1.A.1)

X≤stY  ⟺  ∃ (Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=stX, Y^=stY, and P{X^≤Y^}=1.X \le_{st} Y \iff \exists\,(\Omega'',\rho),\ \hat X,\hat Y : \Omega'' \to \mathbb{R} \text{ with } \hat X =_{st} X,\ \hat Y =_{st} Y,\ \text{and } P\{\hat X \le \hat Y\} = 1.X≤st​Y⟺∃(Ω′′,ρ), X^,Y^:Ω′′→R with X^=st​X, Y^=st​Y, and P{X^≤Y^}=1.

This is the order's Strassen-type coupling theorem: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y holds exactly when copies of XXX and YYY can be realized on one common probability space so that, almost surely, the copy of XXX never exceeds the copy of YYY. It is the weakest possible statement with this shape (existence of some coupling on some space, not a canonical one), and it is the archetype every later chapter's own coupling theorem — for the hazard rate order, the convex order (via a martingale coupling), the multivariate orders — restates for its own comparison.

Supporting milestones

  • Theorem 1.A.2, the same characterization restated via a common random source: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y iff there is a random variable ZZZ and functions ψ1≤ψ2\psi_1 \le \psi_2ψ1​≤ψ2​ with X=stψ1(Z)X =_{st} \psi_1(Z)X=st​ψ1​(Z) and Y=stψ2(Z)Y =_{st} \psi_2(Z)Y=st​ψ2​(Z).
  • Theorem 1.A.3(a), closure under monotone transformations: X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y and ggg increasing gives g(X)≤stg(Y)g(X) \le_{st} g(Y)g(X)≤st​g(Y) (reversed for ggg decreasing).
  • Theorem 1.A.3(b), closure under increasing functions of independent families and, as its corollary, under convolution: independent Xi≤stYiX_i \le_{st} Y_iXi​≤st​Yi​ and ψ\psiψ increasing gives ψ(X1,…,Xm)≤stψ(Y1,…,Ym)\psi(X_1,\dots,X_m) \le_{st} \psi(Y_1,\dots,Y_m)ψ(X1​,…,Xm​)≤st​ψ(Y1​,…,Ym​), in particular ∑iXi≤st∑iYi\sum_i X_i \le_{st} \sum_i Y_i∑i​Xi​≤st​∑i​Yi​.
  • Theorem 1.B.1, the first link of the book's implication chain: X≤hrY  ⟹  X≤stYX \le_{hr} Y \implies X \le_{st} YX≤hr​Y⟹X≤st​Y.

Significance

The usual stochastic order is the weakest and most widely used of the book's orders, and the coupling theorem is the tool that makes it tractable: comparing tail probabilities for every threshold is an infinite family of inequalities, while exhibiting one coupling on one space settles the comparison in a single stroke. This is the technique behind, among many applications in the book and the wider literature, comparing waiting times across queueing disciplines, bounding the effect of parameter uncertainty on a risk measure, and proving monotonicity results for Markov chains by coupling their sample paths. The closure properties (Theorem 1.A.3) are what let such comparisons survive composition with a monotone payoff function or a sum of independent components — exactly the operations a queueing or inventory model performs on its primitives.

Formalizing this theorem establishes, in one place, both the statement and the exact shape of its existential witness (a genuine ∃ over a probability space and two identically distributed random variables, not merely two abstractly-known-to-exist objects), which is the piece every later chapter's own coupling theorem in this series needs to get right independently. No proof is attempted in this mission; the book's own three-line construction (X^=F−1(U)\hat X = F^{-1}(U)X^=F−1(U), Y^=G−1(U)\hat Y = G^{-1}(U)Y^=G−1(U) for a uniform UUU) is a natural target for a future proof-bearing pass.

Difficulty

The definitional trap is the "for all xxx" in ≤st\le_{st}≤st​: it is tempting to shortcut it into a comparison of one summary statistic (a mean, an essential supremum, a specific quantile), which is uniformly weaker and would make Theorem 1.A.1 either false or a different, easier theorem. The coupling theorem itself has a second trap in its existential structure: the common probability space (Ω′′,ρ)(\Omega'',\rho)(Ω′′,ρ) must be genuinely quantified — fixed neither to Ω\OmegaΩ nor Ω′\Omega'Ω′ in advance — and "X^=stX\hat X =_{st} XX^=st​X" is equality of the two random variables' laws, not almost-sure equality of X^\hat XX^ and XXX themselves (they typically do not share a domain before the construction). Theorem 1.A.3(b)'s general statement, for an arbitrary increasing ψ:Rm→R\psi:\mathbb{R}^m \to \mathbb{R}ψ:Rm→R on independent families, is easy to understate as only its convolution corollary; the book gives both, and the general statement is the one with the actual content (the sum is recovered by taking ψ\psiψ to be the coordinate sum, itself increasing).

Formalization scope

Random variables are represented as measurable functions into R\mathbb{R}R from arbitrary measurable spaces, and "equality in law" is Mathlib's native ProbabilityTheory.IdentDistrib, which is defined for two (possibly different) probability spaces and requires almost-everywhere measurability rather than fixing an ambient space in advance — matching the book's own treatment of X≤stYX \le_{st} YX≤st​Y as a comparison between distributions. UsualOrder μ ν X Y and HazardRateOrder μ ν X Y both take X:Ω→RX:\Omega\to\mathbb{R}X:Ω→R on (Ω,μ)(\Omega,\mu)(Ω,μ) and Y:Ω′→RY:\Omega'\to\mathbb{R}Y:Ω′→R on a separate (Ω′,ν)(\Omega',\nu)(Ω′,ν), so no theorem here can be trivialized by silently forcing XXX and YYY onto one shared space. HazardRateOrder is stated via the survival-function cross-product inequality (Eq. 1.B.4), the form that needs no absolute-continuity hypothesis, rather than via a derivative-based hazard rate, so it applies to the same general random variables as UsualOrder without an extra regularity hypothesis the book itself does not require at this level of generality. Independence in Theorem 1.A.3(b) is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun; the random variable ZZZ of Theorem 1.A.2 is left valued in an arbitrary measurable space, matching the book's unrestricted statement, rather than narrowed to R\mathbb{R}R-valued for convenience. A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: ≤st\le_{st}≤st​ is not formalized as a comparison of means, medians, or any single moment, and the coupling theorems' ∃ is a genuine existential over a probability space, not a hypothesis smuggling in the witness's existence.

This mission draws on no platform prior art (repeated searches for "stochastic order", "coupling", "Strassen" and "identically distributed" turned up nothing on-topic as of 2026-09-18); it is the first mission in a nine-chapter series covering the whole book, and its own definitions are not imported by later chapters — each restates locally what it needs, per the series' own convention that draft items cannot import another draft's definitions. Reusable beyond this mission: the UsualOrder/HazardRateOrder shape (parametrizing over two separate probability spaces) is the pattern every later chapter's own order definition follows.

Selected references

  • M. Shaked and J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer Series in Statistics, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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Machine LearningProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Machine Learning IX: Ranking and the Margin BoundTextbook

Motivation

Ranking is the learning problem behind search engines, recommendation systems and fraud-alert triage: what matters is not a single classification decision but the relative order the system assigns to a set of items, because a user or analyst can only act on the very top of a ranked list. Chapter 10 develops margin-based generalization theory for the score-based ranking setting, transplanting chunk 05-svm's single-sample Rademacher-complexity machinery to a genuinely two-sample structure: a ranking example is a pair of points, one drawn from each of two positions, and the chapter's bound must therefore control two marginal complexities rather than one. It also introduces RankBoost, the ranking analogue of AdaBoost, with a boosting-style empirical-error guarantee proved by the same normalization-factor telescoping argument as chunk 07's AdaBoost bound, adapted to RankBoost's own pairwise per-round quantities.

Setting

A ranking example is a pair (x,x') drawn from a distribution D over X×X, labeled by a preference function f; restricted to {-1,+1} labels (the simplification §10.2 adopts), a scoring function h:X→ℝ misranks (x,x') when f(x,x')(h(x')-h(x)) ≤ 0 (Eq. 10.1/10.2). The empirical margin loss R̂_{S,ρ}(h) (Eq. 10.3) uses the same Φ_ρ (Definition 5.5) as chunk 05-svm, restated locally here. Writing S1, S2 for the two coordinate projections of a pair sample S, and D1, D2 for the corresponding marginals of D, R_m^{D1}(H) and R_m^{D2}(H) are the Rademacher complexities of H under each marginal (p. 241). Theorem 10.1 bounds R(h) in terms of these two Rademacher-complexity terms, both in their population form (R_m^{D1}, R_m^{D2}) and their empirical form (R̂_{S1}, R̂_{S2}), via chunk 03's Theorem 3.3 applied through an auxiliary hypothesis family H̃ = {((x,x'),y) ↦ y[h(x')-h(x)]}. Corollary 10.2 specializes this to kernel-based linear scoring hypotheses; §10.4 introduces RankBoost (Figure 10.1), whose per-round weighted pairwise-outcome fractions ε_t^+, ε_t^- (Eq. 10.11) play the role AdaBoost's single ε_t plays in chunk 07, and Theorem 10.3 bounds RankBoost's empirical error in terms of them. Corollary 10.4 combines Theorem 10.1 with Lemma 7.4 (the convex hull of H has the same empirical Rademacher complexity as H, restated as a standing fact of the boosting series) to give RankBoost's own margin-based guarantee.

Formalization targets

Theorem 10.1 — the mission's goal. For H a set of real-valued functions, ρ>0, δ>0, with probability at least 1-δ, for all h∈H:

R(h)≤R^S,ρ(h)+2ρ(RmD1(H)+RmD2(H))+log⁡(1/δ)2mR(h) \le \hat R_{S,\rho}(h) + \tfrac2\rho(R_m^{D_1}(H)+R_m^{D_2}(H)) + \sqrt{\tfrac{\log(1/\delta)}{2m}}R(h)≤R^S,ρ​(h)+ρ2​(RmD1​​(H)+RmD2​​(H))+2mlog(1/δ)​​ R(h)≤R^S,ρ(h)+2ρ(R^S1(H)+R^S2(H))+3log⁡(2/δ)2m.R(h) \le \hat R_{S,\rho}(h) + \tfrac2\rho(\hat R_{S_1}(H)+\hat R_{S_2}(H)) + 3\sqrt{\tfrac{\log(2/\delta)}{2m}}.R(h)≤R^S,ρ​(h)+ρ2​(R^S1​​(H)+R^S2​​(H))+32mlog(2/δ)​​.

Corollary 10.2 (milestone). For a PDS kernel K with r an upper bound on K(x,x), feature map Φ, and H = {x↦w·Φ(x) : ‖w‖≤Λ}, fixed ρ>0: R(h) ≤ R̂_{S,ρ}(h) + 4√(r²Λ²/ρ²/m) + √(log(1/δ)/(2m)).

Theorem 10.3 (milestone). RankBoost's empirical error verifies R̂_S(f) ≤ exp(-2∑_t((ε_t^+-ε_t^-)/2)²), and ≤ exp(-2γ²T) if the edge is uniformly at least γ>0.

Corollary 10.4 (milestone). Theorem 10.1's first bound, applied to h∈conv(H).

Significance

Theorem 10.1's proof is the chapter's genuine new technique, not a restatement of chunk 05's Theorem 5.8: the two-sample decomposition (splitting the supremum over H̃ into a term on x' alone and a term on x alone, each bounded by the Rademacher complexity under its own marginal) is what the 2/ρ · (R_m^{D1}+R_m^{D2}) structure expresses, and collapsing it to a single-sample bound would either be false or silently assume D1=D2 (which only holds for a symmetric D, an assumption the theorem does not make). Corollary 10.2 is the direct theoretical basis for the ranking SVM algorithm §10.3 derives. Theorem 10.3 mirrors chunk 07-boosting's Theorem 7.2 almost line for line in its proof technique (the same telescoping product of normalization factors Z_t), but with genuinely different per-round quantities (ε_t^+, ε_t^- rather than a single ε_t) that must not be conflated with AdaBoost's own, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note. Corollary 10.4 is what makes RankBoost's output (a linear, not convex, combination — normalized by ‖α‖_1) provably generalize independently of the number of boosting rounds T, the ranking analogue of chunk 07's Corollary 7.5. No prior art exists on the platform: GET /theorems?q=ranking%20loss returns zero hits.

Difficulty

Theorem 10.1's proof needs the two-sample structure carried through explicitly: H̃'s Rademacher complexity splits, via the sub-additivity of sup and the fact that y_iσ_i and σ_i have the same distribution, into a term on S2 alone and a term on S1 alone — treating a ranking sample as an ordinary single sample (chunk 03's single-hypothesis-set machinery applied naively) would drop this structure entirely and is exactly the pitfall BRIEF.md names. Theorem 10.3's proof requires Z_t = ε_t^0 + 2√(ε_t^+ε_t^-) be bounded via the identity 4ε_t^+ε_t^- = (1-ε_t^0)^2 - (ε_t^+-ε_t^-)^2 and the inequality 1-x ≤ e^{-x} — the same telescoping-normalizer technique as AdaBoost's Theorem 7.2, but RankBoost's own D_t, ε_t^+, ε_t^- genuinely differ (they are defined via pairwise outcomes y_i(h(x'_i)-h(x_i)) ∈ {-1,0,+1}, not a single-point disagreement h(x_i)≠y_i) and must be modeled as their own recursively-defined algorithm state, not obtained by substitution into chunk 07's AdaBoost Lean.

Formalization scope

MarginLossFunction restates chunk 05-svm's Definition 5.5; EmpiricalRademacherComplexity/ RademacherComplexity restate chunk 03-rademacher-vc's Definitions 3.1/3.2; IsPDS restates chunk 06-kernels's PDS-kernel definition; ConvHull restates chunk 07-boosting's convex-hull definition — all duplicated rather than imported since a draft item cannot import another chunk's draft module, and none is listed as reusable in missions/README.md's "Published definitions" table at the time of this session. D1, D2 are computed directly as Measure.map Prod.fst D/Measure.map Prod.snd D rather than posited via a separate marginal hypothesis, so the theorem statement itself pins down that they are genuinely the marginals of the sampling distribution D, not independent parameters. Corollary 10.2's r is an explicit upper bound on K(x,x) (hrK : ∀ x, K x x ≤ r) rather than a literal sSup, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note about the possibly-infinite supremum — the theorem's conclusion is monotonic in r, so this is not a weakening. RankBoost's D_t, ε_t^+, ε_t^-, α_t, Z_t and returned function f are modeled as their own recursively-defined algorithm state (mirroring chunk 07's AdaBoostDist/AdaBoostEpsilon/AdaBoostEnsemble pattern exactly, but built from RankBoost's own pairwise-outcome quantities, never by substituting into the AdaBoost Lean, per BRIEF.md's pitfall note) — RankBoostEpsilonPlus/RankBoostEpsilonMinus are already tied to RankBoost's own D_t and selected base ranker, so Theorem 10.3 needs no separate hypothesis connecting them (the same trivialization guard chunk 07's own Theorem 7.2 documents). No numerical constant is altered from the book in any of the four theorems.

Not formalized: §10.3's ranking-SVM primal/dual optimization problems (an algorithm derived from Corollary 10.2, not a generalization-theoretic result); §10.4.2 (RankBoost as coordinate descent, an algorithmic-equivalence argument, not a generalization bound); §10.5 (bipartite ranking, its own distinct problem formulation with a different generalization error, Eq. 10.20, explicitly out of scope per BRIEF.md); §10.6-10.7 (preference-based ranking, other criteria), out of scope per BRIEF.md. The uniform-over-ρ extension mentioned after both Theorem 10.1's and Corollary 10.2's proofs (referencing Theorem 5.9's technique from a different chapter) is not drafted, matching chunk 09-multiclass's identical scope decision for the analogous remark.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 10 (§10.1-10.4).
  • Y. Freund, R. Iyer, R. E. Schapire, Y. Singer, "An efficient boosting algorithm for combining preferences," JMLR 4, 2003 (RankBoost's origin).
  • C. Cortes, M. Mohri, "AUC optimization vs. error rate minimization," NeurIPS 2003 (the ranking-SVM connection §10.3 develops).
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics XIV: Fano's Method for Minimax Lower BoundsTextbook

Motivation

Every convergence-rate result in the preceding chapters is an upper bound: some specific estimator (the Lasso, PCA, kernel ridge regression) achieves a given error rate. A natural and much harder question is the complementary one: is that rate actually the best any procedure could achieve, no matter its computational cost? Answering this requires a theory of lower bounds that holds simultaneously for every conceivable estimator — a fundamentally different kind of argument from constructing and analyzing one particular algorithm. Wainwright's High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint (Cambridge University Press, 2019), Chapter 15, develops this theory, unifying classical techniques (Le Cam, Assouad, Fano) under one reduction: converting continuous estimation into discrete hypothesis testing.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a sample space and P\mathcal PP a class of probability distributions on X\mathcal XX. A functional θ:P→Ω\theta: \mathcal P \to \Omegaθ:P→Ω assigns each distribution a parameter of interest. An estimator is a measurable map θ^:X→Ω\hat\theta: \mathcal X \to \Omegaθ^:X→Ω. Fix a semi-metric ρ:Ω×Ω→[0,∞)\rho:\Omega\times\Omega\to[0,\infty)ρ:Ω×Ω→[0,∞) — symmetric, triangle-inequality-satisfying, ρ(θ,θ)=0\rho(\theta,\theta)=0ρ(θ,θ)=0, but possibly ρ(θ,θ′)=0\rho(\theta,\theta')=0ρ(θ,θ′)=0 for θ≠θ′\theta\ne\theta'θ=θ′ — and an increasing Φ:[0,∞)→[0,∞)\Phi:[0,\infty)\to[0,\infty)Φ:[0,∞)→[0,∞). The minimax risk is

M(θ(P);Φ∘ρ)  :=  inf⁡θ^sup⁡P∈PEP[Φ(ρ(θ^,θ(P)))],\mathfrak M\bigl(\theta(\mathcal P); \Phi\circ\rho\bigr) \;:=\; \inf_{\hat\theta} \sup_{P\in \mathcal P} \mathbb E_P\bigl[\Phi\bigl(\rho(\hat\theta, \theta(P))\bigr)\bigr],M(θ(P);Φ∘ρ):=θ^inf​P∈Psup​EP​[Φ(ρ(θ^,θ(P)))],

the smallest worst-case expected loss achievable by any measurable estimator (Eq. (15.2)).

Given a 2δ-separated set {θ1,…,θM}⊆θ(P)\{\theta_1,\dots,\theta_M\} \subseteq \theta(\mathcal P){θ1​,…,θM​}⊆θ(P) (every pair satisfies ρ(θj,θk)≥2δ\rho(\theta_j,\theta_k)\ge 2\deltaρ(θj​,θk​)≥2δ) with representative distributions Pθ1,…,PθMP_{\theta_1},\dots,P_{\theta_M}Pθ1​​,…,PθM​​, Wainwright constructs a testing problem: sample JJJ uniformly from [M][M][M], then Z∼PθJZ\sim P_{\theta_J}Z∼PθJ​​; write QQQ for the resulting joint law of (J,Z)(J,Z)(J,Z). A test function ψ:X→[M]\psi:\mathcal X\to[M]ψ:X→[M] attempts to recover JJJ from ZZZ; its error probability is Q[ψ(Z)≠J]Q[\psi(Z)\ne J]Q[ψ(Z)=J].

Formalization targets

Goal (Proposition 15.1, "From estimation to testing")

For any increasing Φ\PhiΦ and any 2δ-separated set with its induced joint testing measure QQQ,

M(θ(P);Φ∘ρ)  ≥  Φ(δ)inf⁡ψQ[ψ(Z)≠J].\mathfrak M\bigl(\theta(\mathcal P); \Phi\circ\rho\bigr) \;\ge\; \Phi(\delta) \inf_{\psi} Q\bigl[\psi(Z)\ne J\bigr].M(θ(P);Φ∘ρ)≥Φ(δ)ψinf​Q[ψ(Z)=J].

This mission formalizes Proposition 15.1 alone (see Formalization scope below for why, and what a follow-up mission would add to reach Fano's method proper, Proposition 15.12).

Significance

Proposition 15.1 is the single reduction every subsequent technique in the chapter specializes: Le Cam's two-point method (Lemma 15.9, M=2M=2M=2, bounding the testing error via total variation distance), Fano's method (Proposition 15.12, bounding it via mutual information I(Z;J)I(Z;J)I(Z;J) and Fano's inequality), and Assouad's method (a different, hypercube-based packing). Formalizing it in full generality — general Φ\PhiΦ, general semi-metric, general MMM-ary packing set — gives a single reusable lemma that a future mission proving any of these specific bounds can build on directly, rather than re-deriving the reduction each time.

The theorem is already proved in the source; this mission's contribution is a machine-checked formal statement (and, eventually, proof) of the reduction, in a form composing with any future formalization of the chapter's testing-error bounds (total variation, Fano, or otherwise).

Difficulty

The proof combines two ingredients that must each be kept in their sharpest form: Markov's inequality applied to Φ(ρ(θ^,θ))\Phi(\rho(\hat\theta,\theta))Φ(ρ(θ^,θ)) (which only needs Φ\PhiΦ increasing, not convex or any specific shape — a premature specialization to Φ(t)=t2\Phi(t)=t^2Φ(t)=t2 would silently prove a weaker, less reusable statement), and the reduction of any estimator to a test via nearest- packing-point assignment (Eq. (15.4)), which uses the triangle inequality on ρ\rhoρ in a specific direction (bounding ρ(θk,θ^)\rho(\theta_k,\hat\theta)ρ(θk​,θ^) from below via ρ(θj,θk)\rho(\theta_j,\theta_k)ρ(θj​,θk​) and ρ(θj,θ^)\rho(\theta_j,\hat\theta)ρ(θj​,θ^)) to show that a small estimation error forces the induced test to be correct. Getting the direction and strictness of every inequality right — non-strict separation, but strict distance in the "test is correct" event — is where a naive restatement goes wrong.

Formalization scope

X\mathcal XX, Ω\OmegaΩ are arbitrary measurable spaces; the distribution class P\mathcal PP is realized as an indexed family measure : Idx → Measure 𝒳 rather than a bare set of measures, composing directly with θ : Idx → Ω. The semi-metric ρ\rhoρ is a bare function with explicit nonnegativity/reflexivity/symmetry/triangle-inequality hypotheses, matching the book's own footnote definition, rather than Mathlib's PseudoMetricSpace typeclass (kept self-contained, no extra instance machinery). The minimax risk is valued in ENNReal via the lower Lebesgue integral ∫⁻, not the Bochner integral, specifically to avoid the non-integrable-loss junk value 0 that a Bochner-integral formalization would silently introduce — a trivializing formalization would use ∫ (Bochner) here, letting a non-integrable loss vanish and making the inequality easier to satisfy than the book's actual claim; this mission does not do that. The joint testing measure QQQ is characterized by its slice-measure equations directly on the product space [M]×X[M]\times\mathcal X[M]×X, avoiding Mathlib's general conditional/disintegration machinery while remaining exactly equivalent to "JJJ uniform, Z∣J=j∼PθjZ\mid J=j\sim P_{\theta_j}Z∣J=j∼Pθj​​".

Disclosed major scope decision. BRIEF.md recommended Proposition 15.12 (the Fano bound itself, Φ(δ)(1 - (I(Z;J)+\log 2)/\log M)) as this mission's goal. That statement requires, in addition to everything above, a formalized notion of mutual information I(Z;J)I(Z;J)I(Z;J) between a finite-valued and a general (possibly continuous) random variable, and its use of a Fano-type inequality (Eq. (15.31), itself deferred by the book to "Section 15.4" and not fully quoted in the brief). Building a faithful mutual-information formalization general enough for this setting (finite JJJ, arbitrary measurable ZZZ) — matching Mathlib's or this repo's existing, narrower information-theoretic developments (SourceCoding.*, built for a different, channel-coding purpose per BRIEF.md's own prior-art note) or building one from scratch — is substantially more than this session's remaining budget after building and self-reviewing 08-pca and 07-sparse-linear. This mission instead formalizes Proposition 15.1, the foundational reduction Proposition 15.12 itself specializes (via a particular bound on inf⁡ψQ[ψ(Z)≠J]\inf_\psi Q[\psi(Z)\ne J]infψ​Q[ψ(Z)=J]), so that a follow-up mission can add the mutual-information/Fano step on top of HighDimStat.Minimax.estimation_to_testing without redoing this reduction. This mission's name, fixed from missions/README.md, still names "Fano's Method" as the series slot this chunk occupies; its actual content is the reduction step every method in that family (including Fano's) shares — recorded explicitly here and in STATUS.md, not left implicit.

Selected references

  • Wainwright, M. J. High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2019. Chapter 15. DOI: 10.1017/9781108627771.
  • Le Cam, L. "Convergence of estimates under dimensionality restrictions." Annals of Statistics, 1(1), 1973, 38–53.
  • Fano, R. M. Transmission of Information: A Statistical Theory of Communications. MIT Press, 1961.
  • Yu, B. "Assouad, Fano, and Le Cam." In Festschrift for Lucien Le Cam, Springer, 1997, 423–435.
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics XII: An Oracle Inequality for Nonparametric Least SquaresTextbook

Motivation

Regression is usually taught with a fixed parametric model: linear regression fits a ddd-dimensional coefficient vector, and the estimation error is controlled by d/nd/nd/n. Many regression problems in practice have no such finite-dimensional description — the regressor is only known to be, say, convex, monotone, or smooth, and the estimator is a least-squares fit over the (infinite-dimensional) set of functions with that shape. This is nonparametric regression, and the basic question is the same as in the parametric case: how close is the fitted function to the truth, as a function of the sample size nnn? Answering it requires replacing "dimension" with a genuinely functional notion of complexity, since an infinite- dimensional function class can still be small enough to estimate well (a Sobolev ball) or too large to estimate at all. The theory in this mission, due to van de Geer and developed in Chapter 13 of Wainwright (High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019), gives a single non-asymptotic template — the localized Gaussian complexity — that answers this question for an arbitrary star-shaped function class, and recovers the familiar parametric and Sobolev/RKHS rates as special cases.

Setting

Fix nnn design points x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​ in an arbitrary covariate space X\mathcal XX (fixed, not random — this is the fixed-design setting) and observe

yi=f∗(xi)+σwi,i=1,…,n,y_i = f^*(x_i) + \sigma w_i, \qquad i = 1,\dots,n,yi​=f∗(xi​)+σwi​,i=1,…,n,

where f∗f^*f∗ is the unknown regression function, σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0 is a known noise level, and w1,…,wnw_1,\dots,w_nw1​,…,wn​ are i.i.d. standard Gaussian. Given a class FFF of candidate functions, the nonparametric least-squares estimate is any minimizer

f^n∈arg⁡min⁡f∈F 1n∑i=1n(yi−f(xi))2.\hat f_n \in \arg\min_{f\in F}\ \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \big(y_i - f(x_i)\big)^2.f^​n​∈argf∈Fmin​ n1​i=1∑n​(yi​−f(xi​))2.

Error is measured in the empirical (design-dependent) seminorm ∥g∥n2:=1n∑i=1ng(xi)2\|g\|_n^2 := \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n g(x_i)^2∥g∥n2​:=n1​∑i=1n​g(xi​)2. A class HHH of functions is star-shaped if h∈Hh\in Hh∈H and α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] together imply αh∈H\alpha h \in Hαh∈H — every convex class containing the origin has this property, and it is the minimal structural assumption under which the theory below applies. For a star-shaped class HHH and radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0, the local Gaussian complexity

Gn(δ;H):=Ew[ sup⁡h∈H, ∥h∥n≤δ ∣1n∑i=1nwih(xi)∣ ]G_n(\delta; H) := \mathbb E_w\Big[\ \sup_{h\in H,\ \|h\|_n\le\delta}\ \Big|\tfrac1n \sum_{i=1}^n w_i h(x_i)\Big|\ \Big]Gn​(δ;H):=Ew​[ h∈H, ∥h∥n​≤δsup​ ​n1​i=1∑n​wi​h(xi​)​ ]

measures how much a mean-zero Gaussian process can be made to look like a member of HHH restricted to the ball of radius δ\deltaδ. A critical radius δn\delta_nδn​ is any positive solution of Gn(δ;H)/δ≤δ/(2σ)G_n(\delta;H)/\delta \le \delta/(2\sigma)Gn​(δ;H)/δ≤δ/(2σ); by Lemma 13.6, δ↦Gn(δ;H)/δ\delta\mapsto G_n(\delta;H)/\deltaδ↦Gn​(δ;H)/δ is non-increasing on HHH star-shaped, so this inequality always has a smallest positive solution.

Formalization targets

Lemma 13.6. For any star-shaped HHH, δ↦Gn(δ;H)/δ\delta \mapsto G_n(\delta;H)/\deltaδ↦Gn​(δ;H)/δ is non-increasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and consequently Gn(δ;H)/δ≤cδG_n(\delta;H)/\delta \le c\deltaGn​(δ;H)/δ≤cδ has a smallest positive solution for every c>0c>0c>0.

Theorem 13.5 (special case, f∗∈Ff^*\in Ff∗∈F).

P[∥f^n−f∗∥n2≥16 tδn]≤e−ntδn/(2σ2)for all t≥δn.\mathbb P\big[\|\hat f_n - f^*\|_n^2 \ge 16\,t\delta_n\big] \le e^{-nt\delta_n/(2\sigma^2)} \qquad \text{for all } t \ge \delta_n.P[∥f^​n​−f∗∥n2​≥16tδn​]≤e−ntδn​/(2σ2)for all t≥δn​.

Theorem 13.13 (goal — general oracle inequality, f∗f^*f∗ not assumed in FFF). With δn\delta_nδn​ solving the critical inequality for ∂F:=F−F\partial F := F - F∂F:=F−F, there are universal constants (c0,c1,c2)(c_0,c_1,c_2)(c0​,c1​,c2​) such that for all t≥δnt\ge\delta_nt≥δn​,

∥f^n−f∗∥n2≤inf⁡γ∈(0,1)[1+γ1−γ∥f−f∗∥n2+c0γ(1−γ)tδn]for all f∈F,\|\hat f_n-f^*\|_n^2 \le \inf_{\gamma\in(0,1)}\left[\frac{1+\gamma}{1-\gamma}\|f-f^*\|_n^2 +\frac{c_0}{\gamma(1-\gamma)}t\delta_n\right]\quad\text{for all }f\in F,∥f^​n​−f∗∥n2​≤γ∈(0,1)inf​[1−γ1+γ​∥f−f∗∥n2​+γ(1−γ)c0​​tδn​]for all f∈F,

with probability at least 1−c1e−c2ntδn/σ21-c_1e^{-c_2nt\delta_n/\sigma^2}1−c1​e−c2​ntδn​/σ2. The goal is deliberately the statement with unresolved universal constants and an infimum over γ\gammaγ, rather than any single instantiated bound, so the target survives sharper constant tracking.

Significance

Theorem 13.13 is the "master" result behind essentially every concrete rate in the chapter: orthogonal series regression, convex/monotone regression, and (via the KRR specialization of Section 13.4) kernel ridge regression rates for Sobolev and Gaussian-kernel classes are all obtained by bounding GnG_nGn​ for a particular FFF and reading off δn\delta_nδn​. Its value is that it isolates exactly the one place where the geometry of FFF enters — the local Gaussian complexity — while the probabilistic argument (a peeling/chaining argument controlling a localized empirical process) is generic. Formalizing it produces, for the first time on the platform, the statement-level infrastructure (star-shaped classes, local Gaussian complexity, critical radius) that any future mission on a concrete nonparametric-regression rate — kernel ridge regression, convex regression, isotonic regression — can specialize, without re-deriving the oracle inequality from scratch. The proof itself (concentration of Gaussian complexity via Borell-TIS/Gaussian comparison plus a peeling argument over dyadic scales) is not attempted here; only the statement is formalized, as a draft goal for future proof contributions.

Difficulty

The naive route to Theorem 13.13 is to bound ∥f^n−f∗∥n\|\hat f_n - f^*\|_n∥f^​n​−f∗∥n​ pointwise via the basic inequality 12∥f^n−f∗∥n2≤σn∑iwi(f^n(xi)−f∗(xi))\tfrac12\|\hat f_n-f^*\|_n^2 \le \tfrac{\sigma}{n}\sum_i w_i(\hat f_n(x_i)-f^*(x_i))21​∥f^​n​−f∗∥n2​≤nσ​∑i​wi​(f^​n​(xi​)−f∗(xi​)) and then bound the right side by σ Gn(δ;∂F)\sigma\,G_n(\delta;\partial F)σGn​(δ;∂F) for δ=∥f^n−f∗∥n\delta = \|\hat f_n-f^*\|_nδ=∥f^​n​−f∗∥n​ — but δ\deltaδ is itself random (it depends on the estimate), so this is circular: the bound on the right depends on the very quantity being bounded. The chapter's actual argument resolves this with a peeling device: partition the event space by which dyadic annulus ∥f^n−f∗∥n\|\hat f_n-f^*\|_n∥f^​n​−f∗∥n​ falls into, and apply a uniform (non-circular) bound on each annulus separately via Gaussian concentration, summing a geometric series of tail probabilities. This is the step every first attempt misses, and it is why the local Gaussian complexity — rather than the simpler global complexity of Chapter 4/5 — is the right object: localizing to radius δ\deltaδ is what makes the per-annulus bound tight enough for the final sum to converge.

Formalization scope

Design points are an arbitrary type X (no topology or metric structure is needed for the statements themselves); the least-squares estimate is represented as a Prop (IsLeastSquaresEstimate) picking out any function achieving the empirical minimum, matching the book's "any minimizer" phrasing rather than assuming uniqueness. The local Gaussian complexity is defined as an expectation over an explicit i.i.d.-standard-Gaussian noise vector on an abstract probability space, with the inner supremum taken over the subtype of the radius-restricted slice of the class — this is well-defined (not the junk value 0 of an unbounded Set ℝ supremum) whenever the slice is nonempty, which holds automatically for any nonempty star-shaped class (taking α=0\alpha=0α=0 exhibits 000 in the class). Since neither X nor H carries a topology, separability or countability constraint, SatisfiesCriticalInequality adds an explicit Integrable hypothesis on that same supremum (added in revision), guarding against Mathlib's Bochner integral silently returning the junk value 0 for a non-measurable integrand — a value that would otherwise trivially satisfy the critical inequality for every positive δ, regardless of the function class's actual local complexity. The trivializing formalization to rule out here is stating Theorem 13.13's universal constants after the quantification over the function class and sample size, which would let (c0,c1,c2)(c_0,c_1,c_2)(c0​,c1​,c2​) secretly depend on the instance and make the "universal" claim vacuous; this mission places the constant quantifiers first, before the class, design and noise data they must not depend on. A complete downstream development would add: the concentration-of-Gaussian-complexity step (Borell–TIS or a comparable tail bound), the peeling argument, and the metric-entropy / Dudley-integral machinery of Section 13.2.1 for bounding GnG_nGn​ explicitly on concrete classes (Sobolev balls, RKHS balls) — none of which is attempted here.

Selected references

  • M. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Chapter 13. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108627771
  • S. van de Geer, Empirical Processes in M-Estimation, Cambridge University Press, 2000.
  • S. van de Geer, "Estimating a regression function," Annals of Statistics, 18(2):907-924, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176347627
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Functional AnalysisMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Statistics XI: The Moore-Aronszajn TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Many statistical problems — nonparametric regression, density estimation, dimension reduction, testing — are naturally posed as optimization over a space of functions rather than a finite-dimensional parameter vector. Hilbert spaces provide the right generality: they carry an inner product and a norm, so notions of projection, orthogonality and least-squares fitting all make sense, exactly as in ordinary Euclidean space, even though the "vectors" are now functions. Reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs) are the particular class of function-valued Hilbert spaces that make this program computationally tractable: they are generated by a single bivariate kernel function, and every RKHS computation reduces to evaluating that kernel, never to manipulating an infinite-dimensional object directly (the "kernel trick"). Wainwright's High-Dimensional Statistics (2019), Chapter 12, develops the foundational correspondence between kernels and Hilbert spaces that makes this possible, and this mission formalizes its two central theorems.

Setting

A Hilbert space is a complete inner product space (Definitions 12.1–12.2); this mission uses Mathlib's own NormedAddCommGroup/InnerProductSpace ℝ/CompleteSpace typeclasses for this notion throughout. A linear functional L:H→RL:H\to\mathbb RL:H→R is bounded if ∣L(f)∣≤M∥f∥H|L(f)|\le M\|f\|_H∣L(f)∣≤M∥f∥H​ for some M<∞M<\inftyM<∞ and all f∈Hf\in Hf∈H; the Riesz representation theorem (Theorem 12.5) says every such functional is L(f)=⟨f,g⟩HL(f)=\langle f,g\rangle_HL(f)=⟨f,g⟩H​ for a unique g∈Hg\in Hg∈H.

A bivariate function K:X×X→RK:X\times X\to\mathbb RK:X×X→R is a positive semidefinite (PSD) kernel (Definition 12.6) if it is symmetric and every finite Gram matrix (K(xi,xj))i,j=1n(K(x_i,x_j))_{i,j=1}^n(K(xi​,xj​))i,j=1n​ is positive semidefinite — the natural generalization of a PSD matrix to a (possibly infinite) index set XXX, with no topological structure on XXX required. A reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) for a kernel KKK is a Hilbert space HHH of functions on XXX such that, for every x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, the function K(⋅,x)K(\cdot,x)K(⋅,x) belongs to HHH and

⟨f,K(⋅,x)⟩H=f(x)for all f∈H(12.3)\langle f, K(\cdot,x)\rangle_H = f(x) \qquad \text{for all } f\in H \tag{12.3}⟨f,K(⋅,x)⟩H​=f(x)for all f∈H(12.3)

— the reproducing property. Equivalently (Definition 12.12), HHH is an RKHS exactly when every evaluation functional f↦f(x)f\mapsto f(x)f↦f(x) is bounded on HHH.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 12.11, the Moore-Aronszajn theorem)

Given any PSD kernel function KKK on any set XXX, there is a Hilbert space HHH (embedded into functions on XXX) in which KKK satisfies the reproducing property (12.3) — and this Hilbert space is unique: any two Hilbert spaces with this property for the same KKK are linearly isometric via an isometry intertwining their embeddings into functions on XXX.

Milestones

  • Theorem 12.5 (Riesz representation). Every bounded linear functional on a Hilbert space HHH has a unique representer g∈Hg\in Hg∈H: L(f)=⟨f,g⟩HL(f)=\langle f,g\rangle_HL(f)=⟨f,g⟩H​ for all fff. Used inside the proof of Theorem 12.13 to produce the representer RxR_xRx​ of each evaluation functional.
  • Theorem 12.13 (the converse correspondence). Given any Hilbert space HHH of functions on XXX in which every evaluation functional is bounded, there is a unique PSD kernel KKK satisfying the reproducing property for HHH — completing the Moore-Aronszajn equivalence between PSD kernels and Hilbert spaces with bounded evaluation functionals.
  • Theorem 12.20 (Mercer's theorem). Under compactness of XXX, continuity of KKK, and the Hilbert-Schmidt condition ∫X×XK2 dP dP<∞\int_{X\times X}K^2\,dP\,dP<\infty∫X×X​K2dPdP<∞, the integral operator TK(f)(x)=∫XK(x,z)f(z) dP(z)T_K(f)(x)=\int_XK(x,z)f(z)\,dP(z)TK​(f)(x)=∫X​K(x,z)f(z)dP(z) has an orthonormal eigenbasis (φj)(\varphi_j)(φj​) of L2(X;P)L^2(X;P)L2(X;P) with non-negative eigenvalues (μj)(\mu_j)(μj​), and K(x,z)=∑jμjφj(x)φj(z)K(x,z)=\sum_j\mu_j\varphi_j(x)\varphi_j(z)K(x,z)=∑j​μj​φj​(x)φj​(z), with the series converging absolutely and uniformly.

Significance

Theorem 12.11 is the theorem that makes the entire RKHS apparatus well-posed: every time a statistician writes down a kernel — linear, polynomial, Gaussian — Theorem 12.11 guarantees that a canonical Hilbert space of functions exists in which that kernel reproduces, so that optimizing over "the RKHS associated with KKK" is a well-defined problem, not merely a suggestive shorthand. Theorem 12.13's converse shows the correspondence is exact — the class of kernel-generated Hilbert spaces is exactly the class of function spaces with bounded evaluation, the class relevant to any statistical application that samples a function at finitely many points. Together, these two results are the foundation the book's own later chapters build directly on: Chapter 13's nonparametric least-squares oracle inequality, and Chapter 14's kernel density estimation, both work by optimizing over an RKHS and are only well-posed because of this correspondence. Mercer's theorem, in turn, is what connects the RKHS viewpoint back to the earlier feature-map viewpoint of Chapter 12.2.2 (Eq. 12.2): the eigenfunctions (μjφj)j(\sqrt{\mu_j}\varphi_j)_j(μj​​φj​)j​ give an explicit feature map into ℓ2(N)\ell^2(\mathbb N)ℓ2(N) realizing KKK, and its expansion is what later underlies the book's discussion of kernel PCA and of RKHS balls as ellipsoids in ℓ2(N)\ell^2(\mathbb N)ℓ2(N)-coordinates.

Difficulty

The formalization difficulty is concentrated in getting the type of the existence-and- uniqueness claim right, not in any single hypothesis. A Hilbert space is not naturally a subtype of a fixed ambient space in Lean, so "the Hilbert space HHH" of Theorem 12.11 is formalized as an abstract type together with its own NormedAddCommGroup/InnerProductSpace ℝ/CompleteSpace instances, connected to "a space of functions on XXX" via an injective linear embedding into X→RX\to\mathbb RX→R — and uniqueness must then be stated as an isometric equivalence between any two witnessing Hilbert spaces that respects this embedding, the faithful rendering of the book's own proof, which literally shows two candidate Hilbert spaces are equal as sets of functions. A second subtlety is keeping Theorem 12.11's hypotheses (a bare PSD kernel, no topology on XXX) cleanly separated from Mercer's theorem's additional compactness, continuity and measure-theoretic apparatus — the two theorems are frequently conflated informally, but the book is explicit that Theorem 12.11 needs none of Mercer's structure.

Formalization scope

XXX is an unconstrained Type* for Theorem 12.5, 12.11 and 12.13 — no topology, matching the book's own generality. Mercer's theorem (Theorem 12.20) additionally requires [MetricSpace X] [CompactSpace X] [MeasurableSpace X] [BorelSpace X] and a finite measure P, matching its own compactness/continuity/measure-theoretic hypotheses exactly, never applied outside that scope. The integral operator TKT_KTK​ of Eq. (12.11a) is presented as an abstract linear map on Lp ℝ 2 P tied to the defining integral formula via an explicit hypothesis, rather than constructed as a def, since constructing it as a genuine well-defined operator (needing integrability and a.e.-measurability arguments) is proof content, not definitional content, and this mission's definitions file is sorry-free by convention. Mercer's orthonormal-basis index type is existentially quantified over a countable ι (∃ (ι : Type) (_ : Countable ι), ...) rather than fixed to ℕ, since L²(X;P) can be finite-dimensional for finite X (Example 12.18/12.21), where no infinite orthonormal basis exists; the uniform-convergence conjunct is correspondingly quantified over every bijection e : ℕ ≃ ι (vacuous when ι is finite, a genuine order-independent claim when ι is countably infinite). A trivializing formalization of this chapter would state only existence in Theorem 12.11 and drop uniqueness (explicitly warned against by this chapter's own brief), or state Mercer's convergence merely pointwise or in L2L^2L2 rather than absolutely and uniformly; this mission avoids both. Out of scope: the constructive proof detail of Theorem 12.11 (the explicit span-and-complete construction is proof content, not part of the statement), the chapter's worked kernel examples (linear, polynomial, Gaussian kernels, Examples 12.7–12.9), and the further consequences of Mercer's theorem (Corollary 12.26 on RKHS-ball ellipsoids, the feature-map connection of Eq. 12.14) — all natural follow-on work for a future mission on kernel-based nonparametric regression (Chapter 13, mission 13-nonparametric-ls), which restates whatever RKHS objects it needs locally rather than importing this mission's draft, per this book's series-wide convention.

Selected references

  • Wainwright, M. J. High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2019. Chapter 12. DOI: 10.1017/9781108627771.
  • Aronszajn, N. "Theory of reproducing kernels." Transactions of the American Mathematical Society, 68(3), 1950, 337–404.
  • Mercer, J. "Functions of positive and negative type, and their connection with the theory of integral equations." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 209, 1909, 415–446.
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