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The mathematical discipline of drawing inferences from data under uncertainty: estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and the quantification of confidence. Grounded in probability, it spans classical and Bayesian inference, experimental design, and modern high-dimensional and nonparametric theory, asking what data can reveal and with what guarantees.

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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Methanol Limit on a Drifting Proton-to-Electron Mass Ratio (Bagdonaite et al. 2013)Research Paper

Motivation

The Standard Model of particle physics does not explain the values of its dimensionless constants, nor does it require them to be constant in time. The proton-to-electron mass ratio μ=mp/me≈1836\mu = m_p/m_e \approx 1836μ=mp​/me​≈1836 is one such constant: it compares the scale of the strong interaction (which sets most of the proton mass) with the electroweak scale (which sets the electron mass). A measured change of μ\muμ over cosmic time would signal physics beyond the Standard Model, while a tight null result constrains models with additional scalar fields.

The standard test compares the frequencies of molecular transitions observed in distant galaxies with laboratory values. Different transitions respond differently to a change of μ\muμ, so a relative shift between them cannot be confused with the overall cosmological redshift.

Timeline. Optical studies of molecular hydrogen at redshifts z>2z>2z>2 reached ∣Δμ/μ∣<10−5|\Delta\mu/\mu| < 10^{-5}∣Δμ/μ∣<10−5 (Malec et al. 2010; van Weerdenburg et al. 2011). Ammonia inversion lines, about 100 times more sensitive, moved the field to radio astronomy and gave constraints at the 10−710^{-7}10−7 level toward the lensing galaxy of PKS 1830−211 at z=0.89z=0.89z=0.89 (Henkel et al. 2009; Kanekar 2011). Jansen et al. (2011) and Levshakov, Kozlov & Reimers (2011) pointed out that methanol transitions have sensitivity coefficients ranging from about −42-42−42 to +53+53+53. Ellingsen et al. (2012) gave a first methanol limit from two lines. Bagdonaite et al. (Science, 2013) observed four methanol lines in PKS 1830−211 with the Effelsberg 100-m telescope and derived the limit Δμ/μ=(0.0±1.0)×10−7\Delta\mu/\mu = (0.0\pm1.0)\times10^{-7}Δμ/μ=(0.0±1.0)×10−7 at a look-back time of about 7 billion years.

Setting

A transition with frequency ν\nuν has sensitivity coefficient KμK_\muKμ​ defined by

Δνν=Kμ Δμμ,\frac{\Delta\nu}{\nu} = K_\mu\,\frac{\Delta\mu}{\mu},νΔν​=Kμ​μΔμ​,

or, in infinitesimal form, Kμ=μνdνdμK_\mu = \frac{\mu}{\nu}\frac{d\nu}{d\mu}Kμ​=νμ​dμdν​. Pure rotational transitions have frequency inversely proportional to the reduced mass, hence to μ\muμ, so Kμ=−1K_\mu=-1Kμ​=−1. Mixed torsion–rotation transitions of methanol have strongly enhanced coefficients (Table 1 of the paper: −32.8-32.8−32.8 and −7.4-7.4−7.4).

Each observed line is assigned a position VVV, a velocity (km/s) on a common scale centred on redshift z=0.88582z=0.88582z=0.88582. If μ\muμ in the absorbing galaxy differs from the laboratory value by Δμ=μz−μlab\Delta\mu = \mu_z-\mu_{\mathrm{lab}}Δμ=μz​−μlab​, the positions satisfy

Vc=−Kμ Δμμ\frac{V}{c} = -K_\mu\,\frac{\Delta\mu}{\mu}cV​=−Kμ​μΔμ​

up to a velocity offset common to all lines, where ccc is the speed of light. Plotting VVV against KμK_\muKμ​ and fitting a straight line V=a+bKμV = a + bK_\muV=a+bKμ​ therefore gives Δμ/μ=−b/c\Delta\mu/\mu = -b/cΔμ/μ=−b/c.

The fit is a weighted least-squares fit with weights 1/σi21/\sigma_i^21/σi2​, where σi\sigma_iσi​ is the 1σ uncertainty of the iii-th position. With S=∑1/σi2S=\sum 1/\sigma_i^2S=∑1/σi2​, SK=∑Ki/σi2S_K=\sum K_i/\sigma_i^2SK​=∑Ki​/σi2​, SV=∑Vi/σi2S_V=\sum V_i/\sigma_i^2SV​=∑Vi​/σi2​, SKK=∑Ki2/σi2S_{KK}=\sum K_i^2/\sigma_i^2SKK​=∑Ki2​/σi2​, SKV=∑KiVi/σi2S_{KV}=\sum K_iV_i/\sigma_i^2SKV​=∑Ki​Vi​/σi2​ and Δ=SSKK−SK2\Delta=SS_{KK}-S_K^2Δ=SSKK​−SK2​, the slope, intercept and slope standard error are b=(SSKV−SKSV)/Δb=(SS_{KV}-S_KS_V)/\Deltab=(SSKV​−SK​SV​)/Δ, a=(SKKSV−SKSKV)/Δa=(S_{KK}S_V-S_KS_{KV})/\Deltaa=(SKK​SV​−SK​SKV​)/Δ and σb=S/Δ\sigma_b=\sqrt{S/\Delta}σb​=S/Δ​. The reduced chi-squared is χν2=1n−2∑i((Vi−a−bKi)/σi)2\chi^2_\nu=\frac{1}{n-2}\sum_i\big((V_i-a-bK_i)/\sigma_i\big)^2χν2​=n−21​∑i​((Vi​−a−bKi​)/σi​)2.

The data (Table 1) are four lines: 3−13_{-1}3−1​–20 E2_0\,E20​E (Kμ=−32.8K_\mu=-32.8Kμ​=−32.8, V=9.06±0.67V=9.06\pm0.67V=9.06±0.67), 000_000​–10 A+1_0\,A^+10​A+ (−1-1−1, 8.40±0.108.40\pm0.108.40±0.10), 000_000​–10 E1_0\,E10​E (−1-1−1, 9.12±0.309.12\pm0.309.12±0.30) and 2−12_{-1}2−1​–10 E1_0\,E10​E (−7.4-7.4−7.4, 9.83±0.439.83\pm0.439.83±0.43). Because A- and E-symmetry methanol behave as separate species that may be spatially segregated, the fiducial fit uses only the three E lines.

Formalization targets

Goal: the headline limit

With the E-line estimate Δμ/μ^=−b/c\widehat{\Delta\mu/\mu}=-b/cΔμ/μ​=−b/c, its statistical error σstat=σb/c\sigma_{\mathrm{stat}}=\sigma_b/cσstat​=σb​/c and the adopted systematic error σsys=7.0×10−8\sigma_{\mathrm{sys}}=7.0\times10^{-8}σsys​=7.0×10−8,

∣Δμ/μ^∣<0.05×10−7,∣σstat2+σsys2−1.0×10−7∣<0.05×10−7,\big|\widehat{\Delta\mu/\mu}\big| < 0.05\times10^{-7},\qquad \Big|\sqrt{\sigma_{\mathrm{stat}}^2+\sigma_{\mathrm{sys}}^2}-1.0\times10^{-7}\Big| < 0.05\times10^{-7},​Δμ/μ​​<0.05×10−7,​σstat2​+σsys2​​−1.0×10−7​<0.05×10−7,

i.e. Δμ/μ=(0.0±1.0)×10−7\Delta\mu/\mu=(0.0\pm1.0)\times10^{-7}Δμ/μ=(0.0±1.0)×10−7 to the printed precision.

Milestones

  1. Pure rotational transitions (ν∝1/μ\nu\propto1/\muν∝1/μ) have Kμ=−1K_\mu=-1Kμ​=−1.
  2. Under the exact relation Vi=a−c δ KiV_i=a-c\,\delta\,K_iVi​=a−cδKi​, the weighted fit returns −b/c=δ-b/c=\delta−b/c=δ and intercept aaa.
  3. E-line fit: Δμ/μ=(−0.1±7.6)×10−8\Delta\mu/\mu=(-0.1\pm7.6)\times10^{-8}Δμ/μ=(−0.1±7.6)×10−8, χν2≈2.0\chi^2_\nu\approx2.0χν2​≈2.0.
  4. The E-line result is consistent with Δμ=0\Delta\mu=0Δμ=0 at the 1.5×10−71.5\times10^{-7}1.5×10−7 (two-standard-error) level.
  5. Four-line fit: Δμ/μ=(11.0±6.8)×10−8\Delta\mu/\mu=(11.0\pm6.8)\times10^{-8}Δμ/μ=(11.0±6.8)×10−8, χν2≈6.4\chi^2_\nu\approx6.4χν2​≈6.4.
  6. The 000_000​–101_010​ A+A^+A+ and EEE lines are separated by 0.72±0.320.72\pm0.320.72±0.32 km/s.
  7. The A+A^+A+ anchor line shifted by 0.48±0.260.48\pm0.260.48±0.26 km/s between December 2011 and April 2012.

Significance

The result. The authors report the limit as statistically more constraining than previous radio-domain tests of a drifting μ\muμ. Because it uses a single molecular species, it is much less exposed to the main systematic of multi-species comparisons, namely that different molecules sit in different gas at slightly different velocities. The milestones record the internal evidence behind the choice of the fiducial fit: the poor four-line χν2\chi^2_\nuχν2​ and the A–E velocity separation.

Formalizing it. The physical inputs (sensitivity coefficients, measured positions, the systematic budget) are taken as data. What the mission checks by machine is the chain from those data to the printed numbers: the definition of the sensitivity coefficient and its value for rotational lines, the correctness of the line-fit estimator, and the arithmetic of every reported fit, separation and error combination.

Difficulty

The numerical milestones are exact statements about explicit rational data, but they involve nested sums, quotients and square roots, so a certified proof requires careful interval bounds rather than floating-point evaluation. The paper's numbers are rounded from unrounded measurements: recomputing from the rounded Table 1 entries gives, for example, σb/c≈7.69×10−8\sigma_b/c\approx7.69\times10^{-8}σb​/c≈7.69×10−8 instead of 7.6×10−87.6\times10^{-8}7.6×10−8, and χν2≈6.27\chi^2_\nu\approx6.27χν2​≈6.27 instead of 6.46.46.4 for the four-line fit. Tolerances therefore had to be chosen so that every statement is both faithful to the printed value and true for the tabulated data. The general recovery milestone requires showing that the normal equations are nondegenerate whenever the KiK_iKi​ are not all equal.

Formalization scope

  • All quantities are real numbers in Lean; data are finite families indexed by Fin n. Velocities are in km/s and c=299792.458c=299792.458c=299792.458 km/s.
  • The sensitivity coefficient is the logarithmic derivative (μ/ν(μ)) ν′(μ)(\mu/\nu(\mu))\,\nu'(\mu)(μ/ν(μ))ν′(μ) using Mathlib's deriv.
  • The fit uses the closed-form weighted least-squares formulas above; the reduced chi-squared divides by n−2n-2n−2.
  • The systematic uncertainty 7.0×10−87.0\times10^{-8}7.0×10−8 is an input; the variability model behind it is out of scope, as are the radiative-transfer column densities and the spectroscopic computation of KμK_\muKμ​ for mixed transitions.
  • "95% confidence level" is formalized as the two-standard-error interval.
  • Trivializing readings are excluded: every numerical statement is a closed statement about the tabulated data, with no free hypotheses, and the general recovery statement requires non-constant KKK and nonzero uncertainties.

Reusable pieces: the weighted least-squares definitions and the exact-recovery lemma apply to any straight-line fit with known uncertainties.

Selected references

  • J. Bagdonaite, P. Jansen, C. Henkel, H. L. Bethlem, K. M. Menten, W. Ubachs, A Stringent Limit on a Drifting Proton-to-Electron Mass Ratio from Alcohol in the Early Universe, Science, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1224898
  • P. Jansen, L.-H. Xu, I. Kleiner, W. Ubachs, H. L. Bethlem, Methanol as a sensitive probe for spatial and temporal variations of the proton-to-electron mass ratio, Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 100801, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.106.100801
  • S. P. Ellingsen, M. A. Voronkov, S. L. Breen, J. E. J. Lovell, First cosmological constraints on the proton-to-electron mass ratio from observations of rotational transitions of methanol, Astrophys. J. Lett. 747, L7, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1088/2041-8205/747/1/L7
  • Ph. R. Bevington, D. K. Robinson, Data Reduction and Error Analysis for the Physical Sciences, 3rd ed., McGraw-Hill, 2003.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 3: The Big-M Relaxation Is at Least as Strong as PR(∞) for M ≤ ½√(λ0/λ2) and at Most as Strong for M ≥ √(λ0/λ2)Research Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with a ridge term, the ℓ0ℓ2\ell_0\ell_2ℓ0​ℓ2​-regularized least squares problem

min⁡β∈Rp 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22,\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\|\beta\|_0 + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2,β∈Rpmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​,

is a standard model for sparse linear regression. It can be solved to certified optimality by branch-and-bound (BnB) over a mixed integer formulation, and the speed of BnB depends on how tight the lower bounds of its node relaxations are. Two mixed integer formulations are in common use: the Big-M formulation, which links each coefficient to a binary indicator through a box ∣βi∣≤Mzi|\beta_i| \le M z_i∣βi​∣≤Mzi​ (Bertsimas, King and Mazumder, 2016), and the perspective formulation, which replaces βi2\beta_i^2βi2​ by an auxiliary variable constrained by a rotated second-order cone (Frangioni and Gentile, 2006; Günlük and Linderoth, 2010). Which formulation gives the stronger continuous relaxation decides which one a solver should be built on.

Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (2021) compare the relaxations in Section 2. Their Proposition 2 compares the interval relaxation of the Big-M formulation with that of the perspective formulation without a box, PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞), studied by Dong, Chen and Linderoth (2015). This mission formalizes that comparison.

Setting

Fix a design matrix X∈Rn×pX \in \mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p, a response y∈Rny \in \mathbb R^ny∈Rn, parameters λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2 > 0λ0​,λ2​>0 and a bound M>0M > 0M>0. Write [p]={1,…,p}[p] = \{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p} and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty \le M∥β∥∞​≤M for ∣βi∣≤M|\beta_i| \le M∣βi​∣≤M for every i∈[p]i \in [p]i∈[p].

The Big-M formulation (2) is

min⁡β,z 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑i∈[p]zi+λ2∥β∥22s.t.−Mzi≤βi≤Mzi, zi∈{0,1}.\min_{\beta, z}\ \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\sum_{i\in[p]} z_i + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 \quad\text{s.t.}\quad -Mz_i \le \beta_i \le Mz_i,\ z_i\in\{0,1\}.β,zmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​i∈[p]∑​zi​+λ2​∥β∥22​s.t.−Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​, zi​∈{0,1}.

Its interval relaxation replaces zi∈{0,1}z_i \in \{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1} by zi∈[0,1]z_i \in [0,1]zi​∈[0,1]; its optimal value is VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​. Eliminating zzz gives the equivalent form (37),

VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β),H(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p](λ0M∣βi∣+λ2βi2).V_{B(M)} = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} H(\beta),\qquad H(\beta) = \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \sum_{i\in[p]}\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}|\beta_i| + \lambda_2\beta_i^2\Big).VB(M)​=∥β∥∞​≤Mmin​H(β),H(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​(Mλ0​​∣βi​∣+λ2​βi2​).

The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t) = |t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t| \le 1∣t∣≤1 and B(t)=(t2+1)/2\mathcal B(t) = (t^2+1)/2B(t)=(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t| \ge 1∣t∣≥1, and ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2) = 2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​). The interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) has the value (6),

VPR(∞)=min⁡β∈RpG(β),G(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ1(βi;λ0,λ2).V_{PR(\infty)} = \min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p} G(\beta),\qquad G(\beta) = \tfrac12\|y - X\beta\|_2^2 + \sum_{i\in[p]}\psi_1(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2).VPR(∞)​=β∈Rpmin​G(β),G(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ1​(βi​;λ0​,λ2​).

Let S(λ2)\mathcal S(\lambda_2)S(λ2​) be the set of minimizers of GGG, and, as in (9),

L(M)={λ2>0  :  ∃β∈S(λ2) with ∥β∥∞≤M}.\mathcal L(M) = \{\lambda_2 > 0 \;:\; \exists\beta\in\mathcal S(\lambda_2) \text{ with } \|\beta\|_\infty \le M\}.L(M)={λ2​>0:∃β∈S(λ2​) with ∥β∥∞​≤M}.

The comparison runs through the scalar function t(b)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)−λ0M∣b∣−λ2b2=ψ1(b)−(λ0M∣b∣+λ2b2)t(b) = 2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}) - \frac{\lambda_0}{M}|b| - \lambda_2 b^2 = \psi_1(b) - \big(\tfrac{\lambda_0}{M}|b| + \lambda_2 b^2\big)t(b)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​)−Mλ0​​∣b∣−λ2​b2=ψ1​(b)−(Mλ0​​∣b∣+λ2​b2) and through v∗(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MG(β)v^*(M) = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} G(\beta)v∗(M)=min∥β∥∞​≤M​G(β).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 7)

VB(M)≥VPR(∞)if M≤12λ0/λ2,(10)V_{B(M)} \ge V_{PR(\infty)}\quad\text{if } M \le \tfrac12\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2},\qquad (10)VB(M)​≥VPR(∞)​if M≤21​λ0​/λ2​​,(10) VB(M)≤VPR(∞)if M≥λ0/λ2 and λ2∈L(M).(11)V_{B(M)} \le V_{PR(\infty)}\quad\text{if } M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2} \text{ and } \lambda_2 \in \mathcal L(M).\qquad (11)VB(M)​≤VPR(∞)​if M≥λ0​/λ2​​ and λ2​∈L(M).(11)

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. (37): VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β)V_{B(M)} = \min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} H(\beta)VB(M)​=min∥β∥∞​≤M​H(β), attained.
  2. (10) on its own.
  3. Lemma 1: for M≥λ0/λ2M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≥λ0​/λ2​​ and b∈[−M,M]b \in [-M, M]b∈[−M,M], t(b)≥0t(b) \ge 0t(b)≥0.
  4. (41): for M≥λ0/λ2M \ge \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≥λ0​/λ2​​, v∗(M)≥VB(M)v^*(M) \ge V_{B(M)}v∗(M)≥VB(M)​.

The mission also contains the scalar inequality (39) as a supporting statement (not a milestone): for M≤12λ0/λ2M \le \frac12\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M≤21​λ0​/λ2​​ and ∣b∣≤M|b| \le M∣b∣≤M, t(b)=(2λ0λ2−λ0/M)∣b∣−λ2b2≤0t(b) = (2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2} - \lambda_0/M)|b| - \lambda_2 b^2 \le 0t(b)=(2λ0​λ2​​−λ0​/M)∣b∣−λ2​b2≤0.

Significance

Proposition 2 says that neither relaxation dominates the other. For a tight Big-M bound the Big-M relaxation yields the larger lower bound; for a loose one, provided some optimal solution of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) lies in the box, the perspective relaxation does. Equivalently, with the other data fixed, a small λ2\lambda_2λ2​ favours the Big-M relaxation and a large λ2\lambda_2λ2​ favours PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) (p. 8). Together with Proposition 1 of the same paper, which shows that the box-constrained perspective relaxation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) beats both when λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2} > Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, this motivates the paper's choice of PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) as the formulation on which its BnB solver is built.

The proposition is proved in the paper (Appendix A, pp. 29–30). No machine-checked proof of it, of the reformulation (37), or of any property of the reverse Huber penalty exists on the platform. The mission produces a formal statement of both inequalities with every hypothesis explicit, and the definitions of the two relaxation values in a form that later missions on perspective relaxations can reuse.

Difficulty

The scalar inequalities (39) and Lemma 1 are elementary but split into cases at the kink of the reverse Huber penalty, ∣b∣=λ0/λ2|b| = \sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣=λ0​/λ2​​, and at the sign of 2λ0λ2−λ0/M2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2} - \lambda_0/M2λ0​λ2​​−λ0​/M. The passage from coordinatewise inequalities to optimal values is where care is needed. VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ is defined over pairs (β,z)(\beta, z)(β,z), and its identification with a minimum of HHH over a compact box requires eliminating zzz and showing attainment. For (11) a pointwise comparison of GGG and HHH on the box only bounds VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ by the box-restricted value v∗(M)v^*(M)v∗(M), not by VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​, which is an infimum over all of Rp\mathbb R^pRp; the hypothesis λ2∈L(M)\lambda_2 \in \mathcal L(M)λ2​∈L(M) is what closes this gap, and dropping it gives a statement the paper does not prove.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace L0BnB.BigMvsPR. Vectors are Fin p → ℝ, XXX is a Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, and XβX\betaXβ is X *ᵥ β. Every norm is an explicit sum: ∥v∥22=∑ivi2\|v\|_2^2 = \sum_i v_i^2∥v∥22​=∑i​vi2​, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty \le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∀i, ∣βi∣≤M\forall i,\ |\beta_i| \le M∀i, ∣βi​∣≤M. The reverse Huber penalty is an if on ∣t∣≤1|t| \le 1∣t∣≤1.

Optimal values are real infima (sInf): VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ over the feasible pairs (β,z)(\beta, z)(β,z) of the interval relaxation, VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ over all of Rp\mathbb R^pRp, v∗(M)v^*(M)v∗(M) over the box. For λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2 > 0λ0​,λ2​>0 each set of values is nonempty (β=z=0\beta = z = 0β=z=0) and bounded below by 000, so no infimum takes Lean's junk value. VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is defined as the displayed minimum (6); its identification with the interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) is a result of Dong, Chen and Linderoth that the paper cites and does not prove, and it is not part of this mission. S(λ2)\mathcal S(\lambda_2)S(λ2​) is the set of minimizers of GGG, as the paper uses it in the proof of (11).

All theorems assume λ0,λ2,M>0\lambda_0, \lambda_2, M > 0λ0​,λ2​,M>0. The paper remarks that Proposition 2 applies for any M≥0M \ge 0M≥0; M=0M = 0M=0 is excluded because HHH and ttt divide by MMM. The goal is stated for optimal values, not for the objective functions at a single point: a pointwise comparison of HHH and GGG is a milestone, not the proposition. Milestone (37) is stated with IsLeast, so it asserts attainment as well as the value.

The paper states no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) bounds in this result, so no constants are instantiated. Contributions welcome: proofs of the scalar lemmas, of (37) (which needs compactness of the box and continuity of HHH), and of the goal.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv preprint, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, The Annals of Statistics 44(2), 813–852, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
  • A. Frangioni, C. Gentile, Perspective cuts for a class of convex 0–1 mixed integer programs, Mathematical Programming 106(2), 225–236, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0594-3
  • O. Günlük, J. Linderoth, Perspective reformulations of mixed integer nonlinear programs with indicator variables, Mathematical Programming 124(1–2), 183–205, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0360-z
  • A. B. Owen, A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression, Contemporary Mathematics 443, 59–72, 2007 (the reverse Huber penalty).
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Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 2: When √(λ0/λ2) > M the Perspective Relaxation Is at Least as Strong as the Big-M and PR(∞) RelaxationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with ridge shrinkage asks for a coefficient vector β∈Rp\beta\in\mathbb R^pβ∈Rp that fits a response y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn through a design matrix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p while using few nonzero coefficients:

min⁡β∈Rp 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22.\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2 + \lambda_0\|\beta\|_0 + \lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 .β∈Rpmin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​.

This ℓ0ℓ2\ell_0\ell_2ℓ0​ℓ2​-regularized least squares problem is NP-hard, and exact methods solve it as a mixed integer program by branch-and-bound (BnB). The speed of BnB is governed by the strength of the continuous relaxation solved at every node: a larger relaxation value prunes more nodes. Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152, Mathematical Programming 2022) build the solver L0BnB on a perspective formulation and compare its relaxation with two standard alternatives. Their Proposition 1 quantifies that comparison, and their experiments (Section 4.2.1 of the paper) report speed-ups of more than 90× from using the perspective formulation with a tight bound MMM instead of the bound-free formulation.

The mission formalizes Proposition 1 together with the three steps of its proof in the paper's Appendix A.

Setting

Fix XXX, yyy, regularization parameters λ0,λ2>0\lambda_0,\lambda_2>0λ0​,λ2​>0 and a bound M>0M>0M>0 on ∥β∥∞\|\beta\|_\infty∥β∥∞​; write [p]={1,…,p}[p]=\{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p}.

The Big-M formulation B(M)B(M)B(M) introduces indicators ziz_izi​ and minimizes 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑izi+λ2∥β∥22\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\sum_i z_i+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^221​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∑i​zi​+λ2​∥β∥22​ subject to −Mzi≤βi≤Mzi-Mz_i\le\beta_i\le Mz_i−Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​, zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}. Its interval relaxation lets zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1]; its optimal value is VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​.

The reverse Huber penalty is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and (t2+1)/2(t^2+1)/2(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. Put

ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0 B(bλ2/λ0),ψ2(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0M+λ2M)∣b∣,\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2\lambda_0\,\mathcal B\big(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}\big),\qquad \psi_2(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}+\lambda_2M\Big)|b|,ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​),ψ2​(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(Mλ0​​+λ2​M)∣b∣,

and let ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​ if λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M. The paper's Theorem 1 shows that the interval relaxation of the perspective formulation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) is equivalent to

min⁡∥β∥∞≤MF(β),F(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ(βi;λ0,λ2,M),(5)\min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M} F(\beta),\qquad F(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M), \tag{5}∥β∥∞​≤Mmin​F(β),F(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ(βi​;λ0​,λ2​,M),(5)

and VPR(M)V_{PR(M)}VPR(M)​ denotes the optimal value of (5). Without a bound, the relaxation value of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) is

VPR(∞)=min⁡β∈RpG(β),G(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ1(βi;λ0,λ2).(6)V_{PR(\infty)}=\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}G(\beta),\qquad G(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi_1(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2). \tag{6}VPR(∞)​=β∈Rpmin​G(β),G(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ1​(βi​;λ0​,λ2​).(6)

Finally h(λ0,λ2,M)=λ0/M+λ2M−2λ0λ2h(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M-2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}h(λ0​,λ2​,M)=λ0​/M+λ2​M−2λ0​λ2​​, and β∗\beta^*β∗ denotes an optimal solution of (5).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

For λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M,

VPR(M) ≥ VB(M)+λ2(M∥β∗∥1−∥β∗∥22),(7)V_{PR(M)}\ \ge\ V_{B(M)}+\lambda_2\big(M\|\beta^*\|_1-\|\beta^*\|_2^2\big), \tag{7}VPR(M)​ ≥ VB(M)​+λ2​(M∥β∗∥1​−∥β∗∥22​),(7) VPR(M) ≥ VPR(∞)+h(λ0,λ2,M) ∥β∗∥1.(8)V_{PR(M)}\ \ge\ V_{PR(\infty)}+h(\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\,\|\beta^*\|_1. \tag{8}VPR(M)​ ≥ VPR(∞)​+h(λ0​,λ2​,M)∥β∗∥1​.(8)

Milestones

  1. (37): VB(M)=min⁡∥β∥∞≤MH(β)V_{B(M)}=\min_{\|\beta\|_\infty\le M}H(\beta)VB(M)​=min∥β∥∞​≤M​H(β) with H(β)=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i(λ0M∣βi∣+λ2βi2)H(\beta)=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_i\big(\tfrac{\lambda_0}{M}|\beta_i|+\lambda_2\beta_i^2\big)H(β)=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+∑i​(Mλ0​​∣βi​∣+λ2​βi2​); the Big-M relaxation expressed in β\betaβ alone. It holds for every M>0M>0M>0.
  2. (7) alone.
  3. The linear case of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​: if ∣b∣≤M<λ0/λ2|b|\le M<\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}∣b∣≤M<λ0​/λ2​​ then ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2∣b∣λ0λ2\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2|b|\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2∣b∣λ0​λ2​​.
  4. (8) alone (the paper's (38)).

The goal is the conjunction of milestones 2 and 4.

Significance

In the regime λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M both added terms are nonnegative: M∥β∗∥1≥∥β∗∥22M\|\beta^*\|_1\ge\|\beta^*\|_2^2M∥β∗∥1​≥∥β∗∥22​ because ∥β∗∥∞≤M\|\beta^*\|_\infty\le M∥β∗∥∞​≤M, and h>0h>0h>0 because λ0/M+λ2M>2λ0λ2\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M>2\sqrt{\lambda_0\lambda_2}λ0​/M+λ2​M>2λ0​λ2​​ whenever M≠λ0/λ2M\ne\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}M=λ0​/λ2​​. So the perspective relaxation is at least as strong as both the Big-M relaxation and PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞), strictly so as soon as one coordinate of β∗\beta^*β∗ lies strictly inside (0,M)(0,M)(0,M) in absolute value (for (7)) or β∗≠0\beta^*\ne0β∗=0 (for (8)). The bounds are explicit in the relaxation's own solution, so they can be evaluated at a BnB node. This is the theoretical justification for the paper's design choice of building its solver on PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) with a valid, tight MMM; the regime λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M, where (5) is (6) with the additional box constraint ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M, is complementary.

Proposition 1 is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces one, together with reusable Lean definitions of the three relaxation values and of the reverse Huber penalty that other statements about perspective relaxations of sparse regression can be stated against.

Difficulty

The arithmetic of the coordinate-wise penalties is short. The substance is in comparing optimal values that are defined as infima over different feasible sets. The obvious argument "VPR(M)−VB(M)≥F(β∗)−H(β∗)V_{PR(M)}-V_{B(M)}\ge F(\beta^*)-H(\beta^*)VPR(M)​−VB(M)​≥F(β∗)−H(β∗)" requires that the Big-M relaxation, which is posed over pairs (β,z)(\beta,z)(β,z), have value at most H(β∗)H(\beta^*)H(β∗); that is the content of (37), a statement about a different feasible set in more variables. Likewise (8) needs VPR(∞)≤G(β∗)V_{PR(\infty)}\le G(\beta^*)VPR(∞)​≤G(β∗), i.e. that the infimum in (6) is a genuine lower bound of a set bounded below, and both inequalities use the regime λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, in which ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​. Dropping the regime hypothesis makes (8) false in general: for λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M one has ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ and h≥0h\ge0h≥0, and the right side can exceed VPR(M)=VPR(∞)V_{PR(M)}=V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(M)​=VPR(∞)​.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace L0BnB.Strength. Data are X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, y : Fin n → ℝ, reals lam0 lam2 M with 0 < lam0, 0 < lam2, 0 < M as hypotheses; [p][p][p] is Fin p. Norms are explicit sums: ∥v∥22\|v\|_2^2∥v∥22​ is ∑ i, v i ^ 2, ∥β∥1\|\beta\|_1∥β∥1​ is ∑ i, |β i|, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∀ i, |β i| ≤ M. The regime is written M < Real.sqrt (lam0 / lam2).

Optimal values are sInf of the image of the feasible set in ℝ. Each set is nonempty (β=0\beta=0β=0, z=0z=0z=0) and bounded below by 000 under the positivity hypotheses, so sInf is the true infimum and never a junk value. VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ is defined over pairs (β,z)(\beta,z)(β,z) with zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1], not through HHH; (37) is a theorem. VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is (6) as printed: the paper attributes to its reference [21] the identification of (6) with the interval relaxation of PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) in (β,z,s)(\beta,z,s)(β,z,s) variables, and that identification is not part of the mission. VPR(M)V_{PR(M)}VPR(M)​ is the value of (5), which is the paper's definition; Theorem 1 (the equivalence of (5) with the (β,z,s)(\beta,z,s)(β,z,s) relaxation) belongs to a sibling mission.

The optimal solution β∗\beta^*β∗ is a binder with the hypotheses ∥β∗∥∞≤M\|\beta^*\|_\infty\le M∥β∗∥∞​≤M and F(β∗)≤F(β)F(\beta^*)\le F(\beta)F(β∗)≤F(β) for every β\betaβ in the box. A formalization in which β∗\beta^*β∗ is an arbitrary feasible point, or in which VB(M)V_{B(M)}VB(M)​ or VPR(∞)V_{PR(\infty)}VPR(∞)​ is defined through a chosen minimizer, would change the statement and is ruled out. The paper uses no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) in this result, so no constant is instantiated.

Needed infrastructure is light: continuity of HHH and compactness of the box for the attainment in (37), and csInf lemmas on ℝ. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, and of the attainment of the infimum in (5), are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2, 2021; Mathematical Programming (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152
  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, Fast Best Subset Selection: Coordinate Descent and Local Combinatorial Optimization Algorithms, Operations Research 68(5), 1517–1537, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1919
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv e-prints, 2015 (the paper's reference [21], source of (6) for PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞)). https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
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Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization 1: The Perspective Interval Relaxation Is a Least Squares Problem with a Separable Reverse-Huber or ℓ1 PenaltyResearch Paper

Motivation

Best subset selection with ridge shrinkage asks for a sparse linear model: given a design matrix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p and responses y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, minimize

12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∥β∥0+λ2∥β∥22,\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\|\beta\|_0+\lambda_2\|\beta\|_2^2 ,21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∥β∥0​+λ2​∥β∥22​,

where ∥β∥0\|\beta\|_0∥β∥0​ counts nonzero coefficients. The problem is NP-hard, and exact methods solve it as a mixed integer program by branch-and-bound (Bertsimas, King, Mazumder 2016). The speed of branch-and-bound is governed by two things: how tight the continuous relaxation at each node is, and how cheaply that relaxation can be solved.

Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (arXiv:2004.06152v2; Mathematical Programming 2022) build a branch-and-bound solver whose node relaxations are solved by first-order methods rather than by a conic interior-point solver. Their starting point is the perspective formulation, a standard device for strengthening relaxations of mixed integer programs with indicator variables (Frangioni, Gentile 2006; Günlük, Linderoth 2010). Theorem 1 of the paper shows that the interval relaxation of this formulation is a box-constrained least squares problem with a separable penalty in β\betaβ alone. This mission formalizes Theorem 1.

Timeline. Owen (2007) introduced the reverse Huber penalty as a hybrid of lasso and ridge. Dong, Chen, Linderoth (2015) showed that the interval relaxation of the perspective formulation without a Big-M bound reduces to least squares with a reverse Huber penalty. Hazimeh, Mazumder and Saab (2020–2021) added the Big-M constraint and obtained Theorem 1, with a second regime in which the penalty becomes ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​.

Setting

Fix X∈Rn×pX\in\mathbb R^{n\times p}X∈Rn×p, y∈Rny\in\mathbb R^ny∈Rn, λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0, λ2>0\lambda_2>0λ2​>0 and M>0M>0M>0, and write [p]={1,…,p}[p]=\{1,\dots,p\}[p]={1,…,p}. The perspective formulation PR(M)\mathrm{PR}(M)PR(M) is problem (3) of the paper:

min⁡β,z,s 12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑i∈[p]zi+λ2∑i∈[p]sis.t.βi2≤sizi,  −Mzi≤βi≤Mzi,  zi∈{0,1},  si≥0.\min_{\beta,z,s}\ \tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\sum_{i\in[p]}z_i+\lambda_2\sum_{i\in[p]}s_i \quad\text{s.t.}\quad \beta_i^2\le s_iz_i,\ \ -Mz_i\le\beta_i\le Mz_i,\ \ z_i\in\{0,1\},\ \ s_i\ge0 .β,z,smin​ 21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​i∈[p]∑​zi​+λ2​i∈[p]∑​si​s.t.βi2​≤si​zi​,  −Mzi​≤βi​≤Mzi​,  zi​∈{0,1},  si​≥0.

Here ziz_izi​ indicates whether βi\beta_iβi​ may be nonzero, sis_isi​ stands in for βi2\beta_i^2βi2​ through the rotated second-order cone constraint βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​, and MMM bounds ∣βi∣|\beta_i|∣βi​∣. The interval relaxation replaces zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1} with zi∈[0,1]z_i\in[0,1]zi​∈[0,1].

The reverse Huber penalty (4) is B(t)=∣t∣\mathcal B(t)=|t|B(t)=∣t∣ for ∣t∣≤1|t|\le1∣t∣≤1 and B(t)=(t2+1)/2\mathcal B(t)=(t^2+1)/2B(t)=(t2+1)/2 for ∣t∣≥1|t|\ge1∣t∣≥1. Put

ψ1(b;λ0,λ2)=2λ0 B(bλ2/λ0),ψ2(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0M+λ2M)∣b∣,\psi_1(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2)=2\lambda_0\,\mathcal B\big(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0}\big),\qquad \psi_2(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\Big(\frac{\lambda_0}{M}+\lambda_2M\Big)|b|,ψ1​(b;λ0​,λ2​)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​),ψ2​(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(Mλ0​​+λ2​M)∣b∣,

and let ψ=ψ1\psi=\psi_1ψ=ψ1​ if λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ψ=ψ2\psi=\psi_2ψ=ψ2​ if λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M. The reduced relaxation (5) is

min⁡β∈Rp F(β):=12∥y−Xβ∥22+∑i∈[p]ψ(βi;λ0,λ2,M)s.t.∥β∥∞≤M,\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^p}\ F(\beta):=\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\sum_{i\in[p]}\psi(\beta_i;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\|\beta\|_\infty\le M ,β∈Rpmin​ F(β):=21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+i∈[p]∑​ψ(βi​;λ0​,λ2​,M)s.t.∥β∥∞​≤M,

with optimal value VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​. For one coordinate bbb, ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M) is the minimum of λ0z+λ2s\lambda_0z+\lambda_2sλ0​z+λ2​s over b2≤szb^2\le szb2≤sz, −Mz≤b≤Mz-Mz\le b\le Mz−Mz≤b≤Mz, z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1], s≥0s\ge0s≥0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (Reduced Relaxation), p. 6

The interval relaxation of (3) is equivalent to (5):

∃ (z,s): (β,z,s) feasible  ⟺  ∥β∥∞≤M,min⁡z,s{12∥y−Xβ∥22+λ0∑izi+λ2∑isi}=F(β)  (∥β∥∞≤M),\exists\,(z,s):\ (\beta,z,s)\ \text{feasible}\iff\|\beta\|_\infty\le M,\qquad \min_{z,s}\Big\{\tfrac12\|y-X\beta\|_2^2+\lambda_0\textstyle\sum_i z_i+\lambda_2\sum_i s_i\Big\}=F(\beta)\ \ (\|\beta\|_\infty\le M),∃(z,s): (β,z,s) feasible⟺∥β∥∞​≤M,z,smin​{21​∥y−Xβ∥22​+λ0​∑i​zi​+λ2​∑i​si​}=F(β)  (∥β∥∞​≤M),

and both problems attain the common optimal value VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, p. 28)

  1. Reduction to (36). For ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, the smallest feasible zzz is z^=max⁡{b2/s,∣b∣/M}\hat z=\max\{b^2/s,|b|/M\}z^=max{b2/s,∣b∣/M}, so
ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=min⁡s≥b2max⁡{λ0b2s+λ2s, λ0∣b∣M+λ2s}.\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=\min_{s\ge b^2}\max\Big\{\lambda_0\tfrac{b^2}{s}+\lambda_2s,\ \lambda_0\tfrac{|b|}{M}+\lambda_2s\Big\}.ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=s≥b2min​max{λ0​sb2​+λ2​s, λ0​M∣b∣​+λ2​s}.
  1. Case I. If λ0/λ2≤M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}\le Mλ0​/λ2​​≤M and ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, then ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=2λ0B(bλ2/λ0)\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=2\lambda_0\mathcal B(b\sqrt{\lambda_2/\lambda_0})ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=2λ0​B(bλ2​/λ0​​).
  2. Case II. If λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M and ∣b∣≤M|b|\le M∣b∣≤M, then ω(b;λ0,λ2,M)=(λ0/M+λ2M)∣b∣\omega(b;\lambda_0,\lambda_2,M)=(\lambda_0/M+\lambda_2M)|b|ω(b;λ0​,λ2​,M)=(λ0​/M+λ2​M)∣b∣.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 removes the 2p2p2p auxiliary variables z,sz,sz,s and all conic constraints from the node relaxation. What remains is a composite problem, a smooth least squares loss plus a separable, convex penalty under a box constraint, to which coordinate descent and proximal methods apply directly. The paper's solver, its active-set strategy, and the dual bounds of its Section 3 are all built on (5). The theorem also exposes a regime change: when λ0/λ2>M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}>Mλ0​/λ2​​>M, the ridge term of the perspective formulation disappears from the relaxation and the penalty is pure ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​. Propositions 1 and 2 of the paper, which compare the strengths of the perspective, Big-M and PR(∞)\mathrm{PR}(\infty)PR(∞) relaxations, use this reduced form.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (Appendix A) by a coordinatewise argument. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it gives a verified bridge from the conic mixed integer formulation to the penalized form that later results of the paper use, and a checked case analysis at the regime boundary λ0/λ2=M\sqrt{\lambda_0/\lambda_2}=Mλ0​/λ2​​=M, where the two formulas must agree with the stated tie-breaking.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, "minimize over zzz and sss coordinate by coordinate", is correct in outline, but each step hides a boundary case. The rotated cone constraint βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​ degenerates at si=0s_i=0si​=0 or zi=0z_i=0zi​=0, where βi2/si\beta_i^2/s_iβi2​/si​ is undefined, and the paper's convention for βi=si=0\beta_i=s_i=0βi​=si​=0 must be handled. The one-variable problem (36) is a minimum of a pointwise maximum of two functions of sss, one convex and decreasing then increasing, the other increasing. Its minimizer lies either in the interior of the region where the first term dominates or on the crossover s=∣b∣Ms=|b|Ms=∣b∣M, depending on the regime. The paper's proof describes the cases loosely: it optimizes the Case I term without imposing the side condition that Case I attains the maximum. A complete argument must prove the lower bound over all feasible sss, not just evaluate at a candidate. Finally, the minimum over (z,s)∈R2p(z,s)\in\mathbb R^{2p}(z,s)∈R2p must be shown to split into a sum of coordinate minima, each attained.

Formalization scope

Data are X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin p) ℝ, y : Fin n → ℝ, and reals lam0 lam2 M with 0 < lam0, 0 < lam2, 0 < M; the paper's [p][p][p] is Fin p. The squared norm ∥y−Xβ∥22\|y-X\beta\|_2^2∥y−Xβ∥22​ is the explicit sum ∑r(yr−(Xβ)r)2\sum_r(y_r-(X\beta)_r)^2∑r​(yr​−(Xβ)r​)2, and ∥β∥∞≤M\|\beta\|_\infty\le M∥β∥∞​≤M is ∣βi∣≤M|\beta_i|\le M∣βi​∣≤M for all iii. The cone constraint is kept in product form βi2≤sizi\beta_i^2\le s_iz_iβi2​≤si​zi​. In z^\hat zz^ and (36), Lean's b2/0=0b^2/0=0b2/0=0 coincides with the paper's convention βi2/si=0\beta_i^2/s_i=0βi2​/si​=0 for βi=si=0\beta_i=s_i=0βi​=si​=0. Every "min" is stated with IsLeast (membership plus lower bound), so attainment is part of each statement. VPR(M)V_{\mathrm{PR}(M)}VPR(M)​ is defined as a real infimum over the box, and Theorem 1 asserts that this infimum is attained by both problems. No normalization of XXX or yyy is assumed; the paper's unit-norm assumption starts in Section 3. The paper writes no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) in these results, so there are no constants to instantiate.

A goal stating only one inequality (that F(β)F(\beta)F(β) is achieved by some (z,s)(z,s)(z,s), or that it bounds the relaxation from below), or a goal over zi∈{0,1}z_i\in\{0,1\}zi​∈{0,1}, would not be Theorem 1. The IsLeast form rules out both. The goal uses ψ\psiψ with both regimes.

A complete development needs: a two-variable convexity argument for λ0b2/s+λ2s\lambda_0b^2/s+\lambda_2sλ0​b2/s+λ2​s on s>0s>0s>0; a lemma that the infimum of a separable objective over a product of feasible sets is the sum of the coordinate infima; and continuity of FFF with compactness of the box to obtain an optimal β\betaβ. The coordinate lemmas and the definition of the reverse Huber penalty are reusable in the companion missions on relaxation strength and Lagrangian duality. Contributions to any milestone, or an alternative proof of the goal, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Hazimeh, R. Mazumder, A. Saab, Sparse Regression at Scale: Branch-and-Bound rooted in First-Order Optimization, arXiv:2004.06152v2 (2021); Mathematical Programming (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.06152v2
  • A. Frangioni, C. Gentile, Perspective cuts for a class of convex 0–1 mixed integer programs, Mathematical Programming 106(2), 225–236, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-005-0594-3
  • O. Günlük, J. Linderoth, Perspective reformulations of mixed integer nonlinear programs with indicator variables, Mathematical Programming 124(1–2), 183–205, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0360-z
  • H. Dong, K. Chen, J. Linderoth, Regularization vs. Relaxation: A conic optimization perspective of statistical variable selection, arXiv:1510.06083, 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.06083
  • A. B. Owen, A robust hybrid of lasso and ridge regression, Contemporary Mathematics 443, 59–72, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1090/conm/443/08555
  • D. Bertsimas, A. King, R. Mazumder, Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens, Annals of Statistics 44(2), 813–852, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1388
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Machine LearningTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: wurtle

Memory and precision in noiseless Gaussian regressionResearch Paper

Motivation

A single exact linear equation y=⟨x,s⟩y = \langle x, s\rangley=⟨x,s⟩ about an unknown unit vector s∈Rds \in \mathbb{R}^ds∈Rd carries arbitrarily fine information: ddd independent Gaussian equations determine sss almost surely, provided all of them can be kept. A learner that reads the equations once, in order, and keeps only a bounded number of bits between them faces a different problem. The question asked here is how many noiseless measurements such a learner needs in order to reach a prescribed angular precision ϵ\epsilonϵ, as a function of its memory.

This is a question about memory–sample trade-offs: how much a bound on persistent memory forces a learning procedure to read more data. With unbounded real registers, the randomized Kaczmarz update zt=zt−1+yt−⟨xt,zt−1⟩∥xt∥2xtz_t = z_{t-1} + \frac{y_t - \langle x_t, z_{t-1}\rangle}{\|x_t\|^2} x_tzt​=zt−1​+∥xt​∥2yt​−⟨xt​,zt−1​⟩​xt​ satisfies E∥zt−s∥2=(1−1/d)t\mathbb{E}\|z_t - s\|^2 = (1 - 1/d)^tE∥zt​−s∥2=(1−1/d)t on isotropic Gaussian rows, so order dlog⁡(1/ϵ)d\log(1/\epsilon)dlog(1/ϵ) samples suffice. That update stores real numbers and gives no finite-bit upper bound; the question is whether a learner with roughly d2d^2d2 bits can do better than this scale.

Background

  • 1937. Kaczmarz introduces the projection method for linear systems; Strohmer and Vershynin (2009) give the randomized version with exponential convergence.
  • 2014. Shamir's finite-message framework for online and distributed learning includes bounded-memory online processing as a special case.
  • 2015. Steinhardt and Duchi prove memory-dependent minimax rates for sparse linear regression with noise.
  • 2016. Steinhardt, Valiant and Wager relate memory, communication and statistical queries and pose a quadratic-memory versus exponential-sample conjecture for parity learning; Raz proves a time–space lower bound for parity learning, and in 2017 extends the method to a large class of learning problems.
  • 2019. Sharan, Sidford and Valiant prove that for Gaussian regression with tiny uniform additive noise, a learner with at most d2/4d^2/4d2/4 bits needs Ω(dlog⁡r)\Omega(d\log r)Ω(dlogr) samples to reach Euclidean accuracy d−rd^{-r}d−r, in a stated range of rrr, and ask (Section 1.1) whether the first-order sample dependence on precision is optimal under bounded memory. In the same year Dagan, Kur and Shamir prove quadratic-space lower bounds for two different linear-prediction tasks in the streaming model.
  • 2026. The OpenAI preprint Memory and precision in noiseless Gaussian regression (dated September 27, 2026) states an ΩA(dlog⁡(1/ϵ))\Omega_A(d\log(1/\epsilon))ΩA​(dlog(1/ϵ)) lower bound for exact observations and memory Ad2Ad^2Ad2. It has not been peer reviewed, and the Lean statement of its main theorem is open on this platform.

Setting

Fix integers d≥2d \ge 2d≥2, M≥0M \ge 0M≥0, T≥0T \ge 0T≥0. A signal sss lies on the unit sphere Sd−1⊂RdS^{d-1} \subset \mathbb{R}^dSd−1⊂Rd. At step t∈{1,…,T}t \in \{1,\dots,T\}t∈{1,…,T} the learner receives the pair (xt,yt)(x_t, y_t)(xt​,yt​) with xt∼N(0,Id)x_t \sim N(0, I_d)xt​∼N(0,Id​) independent and yt=⟨xt,s⟩y_t = \langle x_t, s\rangleyt​=⟨xt​,s⟩ exactly (no noise).

A finite-state learner with MMM bits keeps a state in a set of at most 2M2^M2M elements. A data-independent shared seed ω\omegaω (drawn from a probability space (Ω,ρ)(\Omega,\rho)(Ω,ρ)) may select its rules. Given the seed, the current state, the step index and the current pair, a transition chooses the next state and whether to stop; it may perform unrestricted computation but retains only the next state. The learner must stop by the deterministic horizon TTT. Its output s^∈Sd−1\hat s \in S^{d-1}s^∈Sd−1 is a function of the terminal state, the stopping index and the seed only; a discarded observation cannot be read again. Success at precision ϵ\epsilonϵ means angular error arccos⁡⟨s^,s⟩≤ϵ\arccos\langle \hat s, s\rangle \le \epsilonarccos⟨s^,s⟩≤ϵ.

Write σd\sigma_dσd​ for the uniform probability measure on Sd−1S^{d-1}Sd−1. Uniform success is the probability of success when S∼σdS \sim \sigma_dS∼σd​ is drawn independently of the rows and the seed.

In Lean (OAI.NoiselessRegression), the state space is Fin (2 ^ M), a learner is a structure Learner d M T Ω with fields initialChoice, transition, output, the sample law is the product of stdGaussian on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and uniformSuccess and success are the probabilities defined above. Randomness during the run is represented through the arbitrary seed space Ω\OmegaΩ.

Formalization targets

Goal: OAI.NoiselessRegression.main

The goal is the conjunction of two statements.

Fixed quadratic memory (Theorem 1.2): for every A>0A > 0A>0 there are cA>0c_A > 0cA​>0 and dAd_AdA​ such that, for d≥dAd \ge d_Ad≥dA​, M≤Ad2M \le A d^2M≤Ad2, 0<ϵ≤1/100 < \epsilon \le 1/100<ϵ≤1/10, and every admissible learner,

Pr⁡S∼σd{arccos⁡⟨s^,S⟩≤ϵ}≥23  ⟹  T≥cA dlog⁡(1/ϵ).\Pr_{S\sim\sigma_d}\big\{\arccos\langle \hat s, S\rangle \le \epsilon\big\} \ge \tfrac23 \;\Longrightarrow\; T \ge c_A\, d \log(1/\epsilon).S∼σd​Pr​{arccos⟨s^,S⟩≤ϵ}≥32​⟹T≥cA​dlog(1/ϵ).

Subquadratic memory (Corollaries 1.3 and 1.4): there is an absolute c>0c > 0c>0 such that for every memory sequence M(d)=o(d2)M(d) = o(d^2)M(d)=o(d2) there is d0d_0d0​ with the same conclusion T≥c dlog⁡(1/ϵ)T \ge c\, d\log(1/\epsilon)T≥cdlog(1/ϵ) for d≥d0d \ge d_0d≥d0​, under either uniform success at least 2/32/32/3 or success at least 2/32/32/3 for every fixed signal sss.

No relation between ϵ\epsilonϵ and MMM is assumed; the constant is absolute in the subquadratic case.

Milestone: supporting estimates (OAI.MemoryPrecision.main)

A single bundled statement collecting the paper's projection-density and backward-block estimates (Theorem 3.1, Propositions A.1, A.4, A.5, B.6, B.7, Corollary 8.2), the cube-prior precision bound (Proposition 8.3), and the explicit success bound after a bounded number of samples (Proposition 5.3):

Pr⁡{arccos⁡⟨s^,S⟩≤ϵ}≤min⁡{1,[2ϵ eC(1+M/d2)⌈T/q⌉](d−1)/2},q=⌊(d−1)/8⌋.\Pr\{\arccos\langle \hat s, S\rangle \le \epsilon\} \le \min\Big\{1, \Big[2\epsilon\, e^{C(1+M/d^2)\lceil T/q\rceil}\Big]^{(d-1)/2}\Big\},\qquad q = \lfloor (d-1)/8 \rfloor.Pr{arccos⟨s^,S⟩≤ϵ}≤min{1,[2ϵeC(1+M/d2)⌈T/q⌉](d−1)/2},q=⌊(d−1)/8⌋.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1.2 answers, for exact observations and isotropic Gaussian rows, the precision question raised in Section 1.1 of Sharan–Sidford–Valiant: with O(d2)O(d^2)O(d2) bits, the dlog⁡(1/ϵ)d\log(1/\epsilon)dlog(1/ϵ) scale achieved by real-valued Kaczmarz cannot be improved, uniformly over all 0<ϵ≤1/100<\epsilon\le 1/100<ϵ≤1/10. Because an exact-observation learner can simulate added noise, the preprint derives from it an ΩA(drlog⁡d)\Omega_A(d r \log d)ΩA​(drlogd) lower bound in the noisy experiment of Sharan–Sidford–Valiant at accuracy d−rd^{-r}d−r, which strengthens their Ω(dlog⁡r)\Omega(d\log r)Ω(dlogr) bound in that range.

Formalizing it. The result is proved only in an unrefereed preprint; no machine-checked proof exists. A formal proof would certify a lower bound whose model (randomized measurable rules, early stopping, shared seeds, measurability conventions) is delicate, and the conventions are already fixed in the Lean definitions. Remaining work: the full formal proof, and as a variant the every-signal version of Theorem 1.2 for fixed AAA (Corollary 1.4), which the Lean goal states only in the subquadratic case.

Difficulty

Conditioning the uniform prior on one exact observation confines the signal to a hyperplane section of the sphere, a law singular with respect to the original spherical measure; information-theoretic arguments that track a posterior density therefore break down after a single step. Arguments for noisy observations, such as Sharan–Sidford–Valiant's, rely on the noise to keep posteriors spread out and do not transfer to the more informative exact experiment. The bound must also hold uniformly in ϵ\epsilonϵ with no relation between ϵ\epsilonϵ and MMM, so a learner with Θ(d2)\Theta(d^2)Θ(d2) bits must be prevented from storing log⁡(1/ϵ)\log(1/\epsilon)log(1/ϵ) bits per coordinate for very small ϵ\epsilonϵ.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); signals and outputs in Metric.sphere 0 1. The uniform sphere law is the normalized toSphere measure; rows are i.i.d. stdGaussian.
  • States are Fin (2 ^ M); the first component of each action is the stop flag. Runs that never stop are forced to terminate at index TTT.
  • Learner.Admissible requires a.e.-measurability of the initial choice, transitions (against Gaussian × Lebesgue on pairs), outputs, and of the full experiment under each fixed signal and under the uniform prior.
  • Probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued; the threshold is 2/32/32/3; angular error is Real.arccos ⟪ŝ, s⟫; log⁡\loglog is natural.
  • The seed space Ω\OmegaΩ is an arbitrary probability space in universe u, so randomized learners are covered by placing their randomness in the seed.

The goal cannot be satisfied trivially: the hypotheses range over all admissible learners, and the success threshold 2/32/32/3 is achievable (with large TTT), so the implication has content.

A complete development needs Gaussian measures on Euclidean space, spherical measure and cap estimates, Gram determinants and affine distances, LqL^qLq densities of Gaussian projections, and measurable selection of Borel versions of kernels. The projection-density estimates are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions toward the bundled milestone, or toward any of its component estimates, are welcome.

Selected references

  • OpenAI, Memory and precision in noiseless Gaussian regression, OpenAI Math Release preprint, September 27, 2026. https://github.com/openai/math/blob/adc7f1241b42e322a6451854ab7e4b4c146bf78a/preprints/Memory-and-precision-in-noiseless-Gaussian-regression-September-27-2026/paper.pdf
  • V. Sharan, A. Sidford, G. Valiant, Memory-Sample Tradeoffs for Linear Regression with Small Error, STOC 2019. https://doi.org/10.1145/3313276.3316403 (full version https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.08544)
  • R. Raz, Fast Learning Requires Good Memory: A Time-Space Lower Bound for Parity Learning, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.05161
  • R. Raz, A Time-Space Lower Bound for a Large Class of Learning Problems, FOCS 2017. https://doi.org/10.1109/FOCS.2017.73
  • J. Steinhardt, G. Valiant, S. Wager, Memory, Communication, and Statistical Queries, COLT 2016. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v49/steinhardt16.html
  • J. Steinhardt, J. Duchi, Minimax Rates for Memory-Bounded Sparse Linear Regression, COLT 2015. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v40/Steinhardt15.html
  • O. Shamir, Fundamental Limits of Online and Distributed Algorithms for Statistical Learning and Estimation, NeurIPS 2014. https://proceedings.neurips.cc/paper_files/paper/2014/hash/cc427d934a7f6c0663e5923f49eba531-Abstract.html
  • Y. Dagan, G. Kur, O. Shamir, Space Lower Bounds for Linear Prediction in the Streaming Model, COLT 2019. https://proceedings.mlr.press/v99/dagan19b.html
  • T. Strohmer, R. Vershynin, A Randomized Kaczmarz Algorithm with Exponential Convergence, J. Fourier Anal. Appl. 15 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00041-008-9030-4
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Machine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Regression and Lasso 1: Under Feature-Wise Norm-Bounded Column Disturbances, Worst-Case Least-Norm Regression Is Exactly ℓ1-Regularized Regression ‖b − Ax‖₂ + Σ cᵢ|xᵢ|Research Paper

Why robustness and the Lasso belong together

The Lasso (Tibshirani 1996; Chen, Donoho and Saunders 1998) fits a linear model b≈Axb \approx Axb≈Ax by penalizing the ℓ¹ norm of the coefficients. It is one of the standard tools of high-dimensional statistics and signal processing, and its usual justification is statistical or geometric: the ℓ¹ penalty is a convex surrogate for sparsity, or the negative log-density of a Laplace prior. Xu, Caramanis and Mannor (arXiv:0811.1790v1, 2008; IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 56(7), 2010) give a different justification: an ℓ¹-regularized regression is exactly a robust regression, the problem of fitting the data well in the worst case when every feature of the observation matrix may be corrupted by a bounded disturbance.

This observation is the foundation of the rest of their paper (dual-norm regularizers from coupled disturbances, sparsity from robustness, consistency of the Lasso through a worst-case-expectation reading). It also connects two literatures. On the robust side, El Ghaoui and Lebret (SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl. 18(4), 1997) computed the worst-case residual when the whole data matrix [A b][A\ b][A b] is disturbed in a Frobenius-norm ball, obtaining ∥Ax−b∥+∥x∥2+1\|Ax-b\|+\sqrt{\|x\|^2+1}∥Ax−b∥+∥x∥2+1​; that result is already on the platform as RobustLS.Unstructured.worst_case_residual_closed_form. On the distributional side, Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) obtained the square-root Lasso as a Wasserstein distributionally robust problem (RWPI.SqrtLasso.theorem_1). The present mission formalizes the feature-wise result that sits between them.

Setting

Fix integers nnn (samples) and mmm (features). The observation matrix A∈Rn×mA\in\mathbb R^{n\times m}A∈Rn×m has columns a1,…,am∈Rna_1,\dots,a_m\in\mathbb R^na1​,…,am​∈Rn, the features. The response is b∈Rnb\in\mathbb R^nb∈Rn and a coefficient vector is x∈Rmx\in\mathbb R^mx∈Rm, so that Ax=∑i=1mxiaiAx=\sum_{i=1}^m x_i a_iAx=∑i=1m​xi​ai​. All norms on Rn\mathbb R^nRn are Euclidean, ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​.

A disturbance of AAA is a family ΔA=(δ1,…,δm)\Delta A=(\delta_1,\dots,\delta_m)ΔA=(δ1​,…,δm​) of vectors δi∈Rn\delta_i\in\mathbb R^nδi​∈Rn, one per column; the disturbed matrix A+ΔAA+\Delta AA+ΔA has columns ai+δia_i+\delta_iai​+δi​. Given budgets c1,…,cm≥0c_1,\dots,c_m\ge 0c1​,…,cm​≥0, the feature-wise uncoupled uncertainty set is

U={(δ1,…,δm)  ∣  ∥δi∥2≤ci, i=1,…,m}.(2)\mathcal U=\bigl\{(\delta_1,\dots,\delta_m)\;\big|\;\|\delta_i\|_2\le c_i,\ i=1,\dots,m\bigr\}. \tag{2}U={(δ1​,…,δm​)​∥δi​∥2​≤ci​, i=1,…,m}.(2)

Each feature is disturbed independently: no constraint couples the δi\delta_iδi​. The robust objective is the worst-case residual

R(x)=sup⁡ΔA∈U∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2,R(x)=\sup_{\Delta A\in\mathcal U}\|b-(A+\Delta A)x\|_2,R(x)=ΔA∈Usup​∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2​,

and robust linear regression is problem (1), min⁡x∈RmR(x)\min_{x\in\mathbb R^m} R(x)minx∈Rm​R(x). The ℓ¹-regularized regression problem is (3), min⁡x∈RmL(x)\min_{x\in\mathbb R^m} L(x)minx∈Rm​L(x) with

L(x)=∥b−Ax∥2+∑i=1mci∣xi∣.L(x)=\|b-Ax\|_2+\sum_{i=1}^m c_i|x_i| .L(x)=∥b−Ax∥2​+i=1∑m​ci​∣xi​∣.

The loss in LLL is the norm of the residual, not its square. In the Lean development, AxAxAx is matVec a x, U\mathcal UU is uncertaintySet c, RRR is robustObjective a b c, LLL is l1RegularizedObjective a b c, and the disturbance δi∗=−ci sgn(xi) u\delta_i^*=-c_i\,\mathrm{sgn}(x_i)\,uδi∗​=−ci​sgn(xi​)u of the proof is worstCaseDisturbance c x u.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 4)

For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and budgets ci≥0c_i\ge 0ci​≥0, problem (1) with uncertainty set (2) is equivalent to problem (3): for every x∈Rmx\in\mathbb R^mx∈Rm,

x minimizes R  ⟺  x minimizes L,andinf⁡xR(x)=inf⁡xL(x).x\ \text{minimizes}\ R\iff x\ \text{minimizes}\ L,\qquad\text{and}\qquad \inf_{x} R(x)=\inf_x L(x).x minimizes R⟺x minimizes L,andxinf​R(x)=xinf​L(x).

No minimizer is asserted to exist; the paper does not claim one.

Milestones (in the order the proof uses them)

  1. Eq. (4), the upper bound: for every ΔA∈U\Delta A\in\mathcal UΔA∈U, ∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2≤∥b−Ax∥2+∑i∣xi∣ci\|b-(A+\Delta A)x\|_2\le\|b-Ax\|_2+\sum_i|x_i|c_i∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2​≤∥b−Ax∥2​+∑i​∣xi​∣ci​.
  2. Eq. (5), the attained worst case: with uuu a unit vector equal to (b−Ax)/∥b−Ax∥2(b-Ax)/\|b-Ax\|_2(b−Ax)/∥b−Ax∥2​ when Ax≠bAx\ne bAx=b, the disturbance δi∗=−ci sgn(xi) u\delta_i^*=-c_i\,\mathrm{sgn}(x_i)\,uδi∗​=−ci​sgn(xi​)u lies in U\mathcal UU and
∥b−(A+ΔA∗)x∥2=∥b−Ax∥2+∑ici∣xi∣.\|b-(A+\Delta A^*)x\|_2=\|b-Ax\|_2+\sum_i c_i|x_i| .∥b−(A+ΔA∗)x∥2​=∥b−Ax∥2​+i∑​ci​∣xi​∣.
  1. The per-xxx identity stated at the start of the proof: for every xxx,
max⁡ΔA∈U∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2=∥b−Ax∥2+∑i=1mci∣xi∣,\max_{\Delta A\in\mathcal U}\|b-(A+\Delta A)x\|_2=\|b-Ax\|_2+\sum_{i=1}^m c_i|x_i|,ΔA∈Umax​∥b−(A+ΔA)x∥2​=∥b−Ax∥2​+i=1∑m​ci​∣xi​∣,

with the maximum attained.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 turns a min–max problem whose inner maximization is nonconvex into a single convex, second-order-cone-representable problem, and it gives the regularization weights a concrete meaning: cic_ici​ is the size of the disturbance feature iii is protected against. With equal budgets ci=cc_i=cci​=c it recovers the Lasso with the unsquared loss, which coincides with the usual Lasso up to a data-dependent change of the regularization coefficient. Every later result of the paper (Theorem 3 for arbitrary norms, the coupled uncertainty sets of Corollary 1, the sparsity theorems of §IV, the kernel-density reading of §V) builds on this identity or its proof pattern.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; the mission formalizes that proof. No machine-checked version of it exists on the platform or, to our knowledge, elsewhere. The definitions here (the uncertainty set, the worst-case objective as a genuine supremum, the explicit worst-case disturbance) are the base on which the companion missions of this series (coupled norms, sparsity, worst-case expectation) restate their own objects.

Difficulty

The upper bound (4) is the triangle inequality. The substance is the lower bound: one must exhibit a single admissible disturbance that makes every column perturbation push the residual in the same direction, and check that it is admissible and that the resulting norm adds up exactly. Two edge cases make the obvious argument fail as written. When Ax=bAx=bAx=b the direction (b−Ax)/∥b−Ax∥2(b-Ax)/\|b-Ax\|_2(b−Ax)/∥b−Ax∥2​ is undefined and an arbitrary unit vector must be used instead, which requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1; for n=0n=0n=0 the identity reads 0=∑ici∣xi∣0=\sum_i c_i|x_i|0=∑i​ci​∣xi​∣ and is false. When xi=0x_i=0xi​=0 the sign must be 000, not ±1\pm1±1, for the computation in (5) to go through. Passing from the per-xxx identity to the equivalence of the two minimization problems is then routine, but it must be done without assuming that either problem has a minimizer.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); AAA is the family of its columns a : Fin m → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and Ax=∑ixi aiAx=\sum_i x_i\,a_iAx=∑i​xi​ai​. Indices 1,…,m1,\dots,m1,…,m are Fin m. A disturbance is δ : Fin m → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), and (A+ΔA)x(A+\Delta A)x(A+ΔA)x is matVec (a + δ) x.
  • Readings of "max" and "min". The paper writes "max" over U\mathcal UU. R(x)R(x)R(x) is defined as the supremum over U\mathcal UU taken in EReal, so it is −∞-\infty−∞ on an empty set and +∞+\infty+∞ on an unbounded one and carries no junk value. That the maximum is attained is stated separately, as IsGreatest of the set of residual norms (milestone 3). "min" in (1) and (3) is read as: the same set of minimizers (IsMinOn … Set.univ) and the same infimum, computed in EReal. No existence of minimizers is claimed.
  • Added hypothesis. n≥1n\ge1n≥1 (0 < n), which the paper leaves implicit. The budgets ci≥0c_i\ge0ci​≥0 are the paper's own assumption on (2).
  • Sign convention. sgn\mathrm{sgn}sgn is Real.sign, with sgn(0)=0\mathrm{sgn}(0)=0sgn(0)=0.
  • Trivializing formalizations ruled out. The robust objective is defined as the supremum over U\mathcal UU, never by its closed form ∥b−Ax∥2+∑ici∣xi∣\|b-Ax\|_2+\sum_i c_i|x_i|∥b−Ax∥2​+∑i​ci​∣xi​∣, which would make milestone 3 and the goal hold by definition; and no real sSup with junk value 000 is used, so the identities cannot hold vacuously.
  • Not in scope. The remark that (3) "recovers the well-known Lasso" (it has the unsquared loss), §II-B and Theorem 2 (probabilistic construction of the budgets), and the other sections of the paper, which are separate missions.
  • Infrastructure. Only Mathlib's inner-product-space and EReal order theory are needed. The squared-loss Lasso definitions already on the platform (XuMannorRobust.Lasso.*, LassoDantzig.*) are different objects and are not used. Contributions are welcome on each milestone independently; a proof of the per-xxx identity for an arbitrary norm on Rn\mathbb R^nRn would also serve Theorem 3 of the paper.

Selected references

  • H. Xu, C. Caramanis, S. Mannor, Robust Regression and Lasso, arXiv:0811.1790v1, 2008; IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 56(7):3561–3574, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0811.1790v1, https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2010.2048503
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58(1):267–288, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • S. S. Chen, D. L. Donoho, M. A. Saunders, Atomic decomposition by basis pursuit, SIAM J. Sci. Comput. 20(1):33–61, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1064827596304010
  • L. El Ghaoui, H. Lebret, Robust solutions to least-squares problems with uncertain data, SIAM J. Matrix Anal. Appl. 18(4):1035–1064, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0895479896298130
  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein profile inference and applications to machine learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3):830–857, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2019.49
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Probability·Captain: mikedeng1

On Tail Probabilities for Martingales 2: For |X_n| ≤ 1 and E{X_n | ℱ_{n−1}} = 0, the Conditional Variance W_a Used to Cross a Satisfies E exp[−f(λ)W_a] ≥ exp[−λ(a+1)]Research Paper

Motivation

Exponential tail bounds for sums of bounded martingale differences (Bernstein, Bennett, Hoeffding, Freedman) are the workhorses of probability, statistics and learning theory. They bound how far a martingale can travel in a given amount of conditional variance. The converse question is just as basic: how much conditional variance does a martingale need before it reaches a given level? An answer controls the time a martingale spends below a barrier, and it is the ingredient that turns the upper half of a law of the iterated logarithm into the lower half.

David A. Freedman's paper On Tail Probabilities for Martingales (Ann. Probab. 3 (1975) 100–118) derives both kinds of result from a single observation: the exponential process Qλ(Tn,Sn)Q_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Qλ​(Tn​,Sn​) is a supermartingale and Rλ(Tn,Sn)R_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Rλ​(Tn​,Sn​) a submartingale. The first gives the inequality now called Freedman's inequality (Theorem (1.6)/(4.1)); the second gives Theorem (1.8), the subject of this mission, a lower bound on the Laplace transform of the conditional variance accumulated up to the first crossing of a level. From (1.8) the paper derives Corollary (1.9), the tail bound P{Wa≥b}<5(a+1)/b1/2P\{W_a \ge b\} < 5(a+1)/b^{1/2}P{Wa​≥b}<5(a+1)/b1/2, Lévy's theorem that sup⁡nSn=∞\sup_n S_n = \inftysupn​Sn​=∞ almost surely on {∑Vi=∞}\{\sum V_i = \infty\}{∑Vi​=∞} (Corollary (4.5)), and, through a separate analytic argument, the lower-tail bound (1.10).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and F0⊂F1⊂⋯\mathcal F_0 \subset \mathcal F_1 \subset \cdotsF0​⊂F1​⊂⋯ an increasing sequence of sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields of F\mathcal FF. Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dotsX1​,X2​,… be real random variables with XnX_nXn​ measurable with respect to Fn\mathcal F_nFn​, satisfying the standing condition (1.1):

∣Xn∣≤1andE{Xn∣Fn−1}=0(n≥1).|X_n| \le 1 \quad\text{and}\quad E\{X_n \mid \mathcal F_{n-1}\} = 0 \qquad (n \ge 1).∣Xn​∣≤1andE{Xn​∣Fn−1​}=0(n≥1).

The conditional variance of the nnn-th step is Vn=Var⁡{Xn∣Fn−1}V_n = \operatorname{Var}\{X_n \mid \mathcal F_{n-1}\}Vn​=Var{Xn​∣Fn−1​}. The partial sums are Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n = X_1 + \cdots + X_nSn​=X1​+⋯+Xn​ and the intrinsic time is Tn=V1+⋯+VnT_n = V_1 + \cdots + V_nTn​=V1​+⋯+Vn​, with S0=T0=0S_0 = T_0 = 0S0​=T0​=0.

For a real λ\lambdaλ, let f(λ)=e−λ−1+λf(\lambda) = e^{-\lambda} - 1 + \lambdaf(λ)=e−λ−1+λ (positive for λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0), and Rλ(v,y)=exp⁡{λy−f(λ)v}R_\lambda(v, y) = \exp\{\lambda y - f(\lambda) v\}Rλ​(v,y)=exp{λy−f(λ)v}.

A stopping time is a random variable σ\sigmaσ with values in {0,1,2,…,∞}\{0, 1, 2, \dots, \infty\}{0,1,2,…,∞} such that {σ=n}∈Fn\{\sigma = n\} \in \mathcal F_n{σ=n}∈Fn​ for every nnn; it is uniformly bounded if σ≤N\sigma \le Nσ≤N everywhere for some integer NNN.

Fix a level a>0a > 0a>0. The crossing time τa\tau_aτa​ is the least nnn with Sn≥aS_n \ge aSn​≥a, and τa=∞\tau_a = \inftyτa​=∞ if there is none. The crossing variance is

Wa=Tτa=∑i=1τaVi∈[0,∞],W_a = T_{\tau_a} = \sum_{i=1}^{\tau_a} V_i \in [0, \infty],Wa​=Tτa​​=i=1∑τa​​Vi​∈[0,∞],

the total conditional variance the process needs to cross the level aaa if it crosses, and otherwise the total conditional variance ∑i≥1Vi\sum_{i \ge 1} V_i∑i≥1​Vi​, which may be infinite.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem (1.8)

For every λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and a>0a > 0a>0,

E{exp⁡[−f(λ)Wa]}≥exp⁡[−λ(a+1)],E\{\exp[-f(\lambda) W_a]\} \ge \exp[-\lambda(a+1)],E{exp[−f(λ)Wa​]}≥exp[−λ(a+1)],

with the convention exp⁡[−f(λ)⋅∞]=0\exp[-f(\lambda)\cdot\infty] = 0exp[−f(λ)⋅∞]=0.

Milestones

  1. The two-point cases of (3.7): for XXX taking only the values −1-1−1 and a>0a > 0a>0 (Case 1), or only −b-b−b and aaa with 0<b≤10 < b \le 10<b≤1 (Case 2), with E(X)=0E(X) = 0E(X)=0 and λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0,
E{exp⁡(λX)}≥exp⁡{f(λ)Var⁡X}.E\{\exp(\lambda X)\} \ge \exp\{f(\lambda) \operatorname{Var} X\}.E{exp(λX)}≥exp{f(λ)VarX}.
  1. Inequality (3.7): the same bound for every random variable X≥−1X \ge -1X≥−1 with E(X)=0E(X) = 0E(X)=0.
  2. Proposition (3.6): under (1.1), E{Rλ(Tσ,Sσ)}≥1E\{R_\lambda(T_\sigma, S_\sigma)\} \ge 1E{Rλ​(Tσ​,Sσ​)}≥1 for every λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and every uniformly bounded stopping time σ\sigmaσ.
  3. From (4.2): Sn≤a+1S_n \le a + 1Sn​≤a+1 for n≤τan \le \tau_an≤τa​, and for every nnn,
1≤E{exp⁡[λSτa∧n−f(λ)Tτa∧n]}≤exp⁡[λ(a+1)]⋅E{exp⁡[−f(λ)Tτa∧n]}.1 \le E\{\exp[\lambda S_{\tau_a\wedge n} - f(\lambda)T_{\tau_a\wedge n}]\} \le \exp[\lambda(a+1)]\cdot E\{\exp[-f(\lambda)T_{\tau_a\wedge n}]\}.1≤E{exp[λSτa​∧n​−f(λ)Tτa​∧n​]}≤exp[λ(a+1)]⋅E{exp[−f(λ)Tτa​∧n​]}.

Significance

The result. Theorem (1.8) says that the Laplace transform of WaW_aWa​ cannot be small, so WaW_aWa​ cannot be large: a bounded martingale difference sequence crosses any level after a finite amount of conditional variance with high probability. The paper turns this into the explicit tail estimate (1.9), into Lévy's theorem that a bounded martingale with divergent conditional variance is almost surely unbounded above and below, and, combined with the upper bound (4.8) on the same Laplace transform, into the lower-tail estimate (1.10) that gives the lower half of the law of the iterated logarithm for martingales in intrinsic time. Example (4.3) of the paper shows the theorem fails when the increments are only bounded below, so the two-sided bound in (1.1) is needed.

Formalizing it. The result is classical and proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Mathlib has conditional variance, stopping times and optional stopping for bounded stopping times, but no reverse moment-generating-function inequality such as (3.7), no submartingale property for exponential processes in intrinsic time, and no crossing-time variables valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The mission produces these, with the conventions at infinity made explicit, as a base for the remaining results of the paper (Corollary (1.9), Corollary (4.5), the lower-tail bound (1.10)).

Difficulty

The obvious route is optional stopping at τa\tau_aτa​ itself. It fails: τa\tau_aτa​ is unbounded and may be infinite with positive probability, and Proposition (3.6) holds only for uniformly bounded stopping times. The argument must stop at τa∧n\tau_a \wedge nτa​∧n, use the overshoot bound Sτa∧n≤a+1S_{\tau_a \wedge n} \le a + 1Sτa​∧n​≤a+1 (which relies on Xn≤1X_n \le 1Xn​≤1), and pass to the limit n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ in a way that sends the integrand to 000 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}; the limit exchange needs Tn→WaT_n \to W_aTn​→Wa​ in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and f(λ)>0f(\lambda) > 0f(λ)>0. A second obstacle is the one-step inequality (3.7): it is a lower bound on a moment-generating function, valid for random variables bounded only from below, where Eexp⁡(λX)E\exp(\lambda X)Eexp(λX) may be infinite; the usual convexity bounds go in the opposite direction.

Formalization scope

The source is the published Annals of Probability article (a scanned copy); all page numbers are the journal's.

Conventions. Increments are a sequence X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ used from index 111; X0X_0X0​ is never read. Measurability is "XnX_nXn​ is Fn\mathcal F_nFn​-strongly measurable for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1", and the two parts of (1.1) are assumed almost surely. VnV_nVn​ is Mathlib's condVar of XnX_nXn​ given Fn−1\mathcal F_{n-1}Fn−1​; under (1.1) every XnX_nXn​ is square-integrable, so this is a genuine conditional variance and no square-integrability hypothesis is added to the martingale statements. Stopping times are Ω → WithTop ℕ (⊤ is ∞\infty∞). τa\tau_aτa​ is WithTop ℕ-valued and WaW_aWa​ is [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued (ℝ≥0∞), built from the nonnegative parts of the ViV_iVi​, which agree with ViV_iVi​ almost surely. The integrand of the goal is the function that equals e−f(λ)Wae^{-f(\lambda) W_a}e−f(λ)Wa​ on {Wa<∞}\{W_a < \infty\}{Wa​<∞} and 000 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}; replacing it by exp⁡(−f(λ)⋅toReal(Wa))\exp(-f(\lambda)\cdot\mathrm{toReal}(W_a))exp(−f(λ)⋅toReal(Wa​)), which is 111 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}, would formalize a strictly weaker statement and is ruled out. In (3.7), where exp⁡(λX)\exp(\lambda X)exp(λX) need not be integrable, the expectation is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and XXX is assumed square-integrable so that Var⁡X\operatorname{Var} XVarX is finite.

Corrected misprints. Definition (1.2)(e) prints Rλ(v,y)=exp⁡{λh−f(λ)v}R_\lambda(v,y) = \exp\{\lambda h - f(\lambda) v\}Rλ​(v,y)=exp{λh−f(λ)v}; hhh is read as yyy. The display in (4.2) prints the last factor without its expectation sign; the EEE is restored.

Ranges. The goal uses λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and a>0a > 0a>0 as in (1.2) and (1.7); (3.6), (3.7) and its two cases are stated for λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 as on p. 107.

Lemma (3.1) (g(x)=(ex−1−x)/x2g(x) = (e^x - 1 - x)/x^2g(x)=(ex−1−x)/x2 is increasing), used in Case 2, is posed in the companion mission on Freedman's inequality and not here. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma that Rλ(Tn,Sn)R_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Rλ​(Tn​,Sn​) is a submartingale, and Corollary (1.9) as a follow-up.

Selected references

  • David A. Freedman, On Tail Probabilities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 3(1), 1975, 100–118. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996452
  • Paul Lévy, Théorie de l'addition des variables aléatoires, Gauthier-Villars, 1937 (Theorem 68, p. 247, cited in (4.5)).
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 6: For 0 < ξ < α, Residual Life Attraction to Γ_α Is Equivalent to a Finite ξ-th Moment and E((X/t)^ξ | X > t) → (1 − ξ/α)^{−1}Research Paper

Motivation

Actuaries, reliability engineers and demographers ask how much longer an item or a person will live given that it has already survived to a great age ttt. For a lifetime XXX with distribution function FFF, this is the law of the residual life time X−tX - tX−t given X>tX > tX>t, and the question is what this law looks like as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974) 792–804) determined all possible limit laws of the suitably normed residual life time and the distribution functions attracted to each. When only a scale normalization is allowed, the possible continuous limits are the exponential law and the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, the counterparts in residual-life theory of the Gumbel and Fréchet laws of extreme value theory. Both theories rest on Karamata's theory of regular variation (de Haan 1970).

Section 5 of the paper restates the domain of attraction of Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ in terms of moments: weak convergence of the scaled residual life times is equivalent to convergence of a single conditional moment of the scaled residual life. For an exponential limit the analogous link between weak convergence and first moments had been studied by Meilijson (1972). Moment conditions of this form underlie the mean-excess and Hill-type diagnostics used in heavy-tail statistics and in the peaks-over-threshold method (Pickands 1975).

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ and distribution function FFF, and write R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x} for its tail. The standing assumption is F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every real xxx, i.e. R(x)>0R(x) > 0R(x)>0: XXX has no finite upper endpoint, and conditioning on {X>t}\{X > t\}{X>t} makes sense for every ttt.

For t>0t > 0t>0, the conditional distribution function of X/tX/tX/t given X>tX > tX>t is

P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=P{t<X≤xt}P{X>t},P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \frac{P\{t < X \le xt\}}{P\{X > t\}},P{tX​≤x​X>t}=P{X>t}P{t<X≤xt}​,

which vanishes for x≤1x \le 1x≤1. For a real exponent ξ\xiξ, the conditional ξ\xiξ-th moment is

E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=1P{X>t}∫(t,∞)(yt)ξdF(y).E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \frac{1}{P\{X>t\}}\int_{(t,\infty)} \Big(\frac{y}{t}\Big)^{\xi} dF(y).E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=P{X>t}1​∫(t,∞)​(ty​)ξdF(y).

For α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the limit law Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is Γα(x)=1−(1+x)−α\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 1 - (1+x)^{-\alpha}Γα​(x)=1−(1+x)−α for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 and Γα(x)=0\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 0Γα​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0. The shifted function Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) equals 1−x−α1 - x^{-\alpha}1−x−α for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1: the Pareto law of index α\alphaα on [1,∞)[1,\infty)[1,∞). The distribution function FFF is in the domain of residual life time attraction Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) when

lim⁡t→∞P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=Γα(x−1)for all x>0.\lim_{t\to\infty} P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \Gamma_\alpha(x-1) \qquad \text{for all } x > 0 .t→∞lim​P{tX​≤x​X>t}=Γα​(x−1)for all x>0.

In Lean the tail is BalkemaDeHaan.LimitTypes.tail; the scaled conditional distribution and moment are BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.scaledResidualCDF and BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.condMoment. The limit law is BalkemaDeHaan.ParetoBounds.GammaLaw.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8(a), corrected

For F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx and 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α:

F∈Dr(Γα)  ⟺  ∫0∞yξ dF(y)<∞  and  lim⁡t→∞E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=(1−ξα)−1.F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) \iff \int_0^\infty y^\xi\, dF(y) < \infty \ \text{ and } \ \lim_{t\to\infty} E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \Big(1 - \frac{\xi}{\alpha}\Big)^{-1}.F∈Dr​(Γα​)⟺∫0∞​yξdF(y)<∞  and  t→∞lim​E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=(1−αξ​)−1.

Milestones

  1. The identity in the proof of Theorem 8(a): for x>0x > 0x>0, with a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment,
∫x∞yξdF(y)xξ(1−F(x))=ξ ∫x∞yξ−1(1−F(y)) dyxξ(1−F(x))+1,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^\xi dF(y)}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} = \xi\,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}(1-F(y))\,dy}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} + 1,xξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξdF(y)​=ξxξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξ−1(1−F(y))dy​+1,

the left side being E((X/x)ξ∣X>x)E((X/x)^\xi \mid X > x)E((X/x)ξ∣X>x). 2. The value of the limit: ∫0∞xξ dΓα(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1\int_0^\infty x^\xi\, d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1) = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1 for 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α. 3. The "only if" half: F∈Dr(Γα)F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)F∈Dr​(Γα​) implies a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and convergence of the conditional moment to (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1. 4. The "if" half, corrected: the converse.

Significance

The theorem replaces a distributional limit, required at every x>0x > 0x>0, by one numerical limit, for any order ξ∈(0,α)\xi \in (0,\alpha)ξ∈(0,α). In statistics this justifies testing or estimating heavy-tail behaviour through empirical conditional moments above a high threshold, and it identifies the limit value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1, from which α\alphaα can be read off. Combined with Theorem 4 of the same paper (Dr(Γα)=D(Φα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) = D(\Phi_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​)=D(Φα​)), it gives a moment criterion for the Fréchet domain of attraction of extreme value theory.

The result is classical and proved, by reduction to Karamata's theorem on integrals of regularly varying functions. No machine-checked proof is known. Mathlib has no theory of regular variation, no Karamata theorem and no domains of attraction, so a formal proof also produces a reusable piece of the theory of regularly varying tails: the direct and converse halves of Karamata's integral theorem for tails of probability laws.

Difficulty

Both directions pass through the asymptotics of ∫x∞yξ−1R(y) dy\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}R(y)\,dy∫x∞​yξ−1R(y)dy against xξR(x)x^\xi R(x)xξR(x). The direct half requires uniform control of R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t) over x∈(1,∞)x \in (1,\infty)x∈(1,∞) to exchange the limit t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ with an integral over an unbounded range; pointwise convergence of the tail ratio alone does not dominate the integrand. The converse half must recover regular variation of RRR from the behaviour of a single integral functional, and here the limit value matters: the page's hypothesis that the limit merely exists does not identify α\alphaα (see below), so an argument that never uses the value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1 cannot succeed.

Formalization scope

  • The law of XXX is μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx is ∀ x, 0 < μ (Set.Ioi x). All conditional quantities divide by μ (Set.Ioi t), which this hypothesis keeps nonzero.
  • "∫0∞yξdF(y)\int_0^\infty y^\xi dF(y)∫0∞​yξdF(y) is finite" is IntegrableOn (fun y => y ^ ξ) (Set.Ioi 0) μ (real power on positive bases). In the "only if" half it is part of the conclusion, never an assumption; Lean's value 000 for a non-integrable Bochner integral therefore cannot make the statements hold trivially. Milestone 1 asserts integrability of yξ−1R(y)y^{\xi-1}R(y)yξ−1R(y) on (x,∞)(x,\infty)(x,∞) as well.
  • "lim⁡t→∞\lim_{t\to\infty}limt→∞​" is Tendsto … atTop along real ttt; the limit form of Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) is required for every x>0x > 0x>0, as printed (the limit Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) is continuous, so this is weak convergence). The goal uses this explicit form, the one given after "i.e." on the page, not a separate definition of DrD_rDr​.
  • ∫0∞xξdΓα(x−1)\int_0^\infty x^\xi d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1) is the integral against a probability measure whose distribution function (ProbabilityTheory.cdf) is x↦Γα(x−1)x \mapsto \Gamma_\alpha(x-1)x↦Γα​(x−1); milestone 2 asserts such a measure exists and computes the moment for every such measure.
  • Corrected statement. The source is the published article (Annals of Probability, DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548). As printed, the "if" direction asks only that c=lim⁡E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)c = \lim E((X/t)^\xi \mid X>t)c=limE((X/t)ξ∣X>t) exist and be finite. That is false: the tail R(x)=x−βR(x) = x^{-\beta}R(x)=x−β for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1, with β>ξ\beta > \xiβ>ξ and β≠α\beta \ne \alphaβ=α, has a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1E((X/t)^\xi\mid X > t) = (1-\xi/\beta)^{-1}E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1 for all t≥1t \ge 1t≥1, but its limit law is Γβ(x−1)\Gamma_\beta(x-1)Γβ​(x−1). The goal and milestone 4 require c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1, the value the page itself states in "Then c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1". The "only if" direction is exactly the page's.
  • No hypothesis beyond the page is added; α>0\alpha > 0α>0 follows from 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α.

A complete development needs regularly varying functions, uniform convergence (or Potter bounds) for regularly varying tails, and Karamata's integral theorem with its converse; all are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of these general tools, and of the Pareto moment computation are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual life time at great age, Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970 (Theorem 1.2.1 and Remark 1.2.1).
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie and J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721434
  • I. Meilijson, Limiting properties of the mean residual lifetime function, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 43 (1972), 354–357. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177692729
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
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Residual Life Time at Great Age 2: The Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of the Exponential Law Is D(Λ) ∩ D₀Research Paper

Motivation

A lifetime observed only after it has survived to a high age is described by its residual life: the additional time until failure, conditional on survival so far. Reliability analysis asks whether these conditional distributions settle into a stable shape after scaling and shifting. Extreme-value theory asks a related question about the largest observation in a large independent sample. Balkema and de Haan identify an exact connection between these questions for the exponential residual-life limit and the Gumbel maxima limit in Theorem 3 of their 1974 article. The connection lets one recognize the asymptotic form of old-age lifetimes from the domain of attraction of sample maxima, provided the lifetime distribution has no finite upper endpoint.

The article studies several residual-life limits. This mission isolates its exponential case, where the limiting conditional excess has distribution function Π(x)=1−e−x\Pi(x)=1-e^{-x}Π(x)=1−e−x for x≥0x\ge0x≥0. The other continuous family Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ and the paper's discrete limits have separate hypotheses and attraction domains; they are outside this theorem.

Setting

Let XXX have a probability distribution function FFF on R\mathbb RR, and let its survival function be R(x)=Pr⁡(X>x)=1−F(x)R(x)=\Pr(X>x)=1-F(x)R(x)=Pr(X>x)=1−F(x). For a threshold ttt with R(t)>0R(t)>0R(t)>0, the residual-life distribution function is

Ft(x)=Pr⁡(X−t≤x∣X>t)=Pr⁡(t<X≤t+x)R(t).F_t(x)=\Pr(X-t\le x\mid X>t)=\frac{\Pr(t<X\le t+x)}{R(t)}.Ft​(x)=Pr(X−t≤x∣X>t)=R(t)Pr(t<X≤t+x)​.

It is zero for x<0x<0x<0. The class D0D_0D0​ consists of the distributions with R(x)>0R(x)>0R(x)>0 for every real xxx. This says that the upper endpoint is infinite and makes FtF_tFt​ meaningful at every threshold.

A law FFF belongs to the domain of residual-life attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) when F∈D0F\in D_0F∈D0​ and there are a positive scale a(t)a(t)a(t) and a shift b(t)b(t)b(t) such that Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞. The shift here acts on X−tX-tX−t, the residual lifetime. Weak convergence means convergence at every continuity point of the limiting distribution function; it does not require convergence at a jump.

For maxima, FFF belongs to the domain of attraction D(G)D(G)D(G) if there are sequences an>0a_n>0an​>0 and bnb_nbn​ for which F(anx+bn)nF(a_nx+b_n)^nF(an​x+bn​)n converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. The power is the distribution function of the maximum of nnn independent observations after the indicated normalization. The relevant limit laws are the exponential residual-life law and the Gumbel law:

Π(x)={0,x<0,1−e−x,x≥0,Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).\Pi(x)=\begin{cases}0,&x<0,\\1-e^{-x},&x\ge0,\end{cases}\qquad \Lambda(x)=e^{-e^{-x}}\quad(x\in\mathbb R).Π(x)={0,1−e−x,​x<0,x≥0,​Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).

These definitions and formulas come from the introduction and §2 of the published article, printed pages 792–793 and 798.

Formalization targets

Theorem 3: the exact domain identity

The goal is the identity stated on printed page 798:

Dr(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0.D_r(\Pi)=D(\Lambda)\cap D_0.Dr​(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0​.

Both inclusions are required. In particular, membership in the maxima domain alone is insufficient: the maximum of a sample can have a Gumbel limit even when the underlying distribution has a finite upper endpoint, while residual life cannot be conditioned on survival beyond that endpoint. The D0D_0D0​ condition is therefore part of the mathematical claim.

Supporting targets

The milestone list follows the statements used in the article's treatment of Theorem 3: the convergence-of-types remark on page 795; Lemma 3's asymptotic ratio R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1R(x-0)/R(x+0)\to1R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1; the tail criterion nR(bn+xan)→e−xnR(b_n+xa_n)\to e^{-x}nR(bn​+xan​)→e−x associated with Gumbel attraction; the inclusion D(Λ)∩D0⊆Dr(Π)D(\Lambda)\cap D_0\subseteq D_r(\Pi)D(Λ)∩D0​⊆Dr​(Π); and the passage from this tail limit on x>0x>0x>0 to all x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R. The last step retains the same normalization sequences. The article presents the criterion in one direction and relies on its converse at the end; the formal milestone records both directions with the same sequences.

Significance

The identity translates a conditional limit at a moving high threshold into a classical maxima-domain statement. A theorem about sample extremes can therefore characterize whether normalized remaining lifetime is asymptotically exponential. Conversely, observing exponential residual-life attraction determines a Gumbel maxima limit once the tail normalization is extended across the real line. The condition D0D_0D0​ marks exactly where the conditional lifetime exists; omitting it would misstate the equivalence.

The article proves the result mathematically. The Lean targets here provide a precise representation of its distributions, normalizations, and limiting claims, with Theorem 3 still posed for formal proof. A complete development would add proofs of the supporting tail and convergence-of-types statements, then establish both inclusions. The definitions of weak convergence at continuity points, survival functions, and attraction domains can also support later formalizations of the paper's Pareto and discrete cases.

Difficulty

The simple comparison F(anx+bn)n≈e−nR(anx+bn)F(a_nx+b_n)^n\approx e^{-nR(a_nx+b_n)}F(an​x+bn​)n≈e−nR(an​x+bn​) only relates the two limits after a suitable normalization is already available. The reverse direction starts with conditional residual-life convergence indexed by real thresholds, whereas maxima attraction needs a sequence indexed by integers. Sampling thresholds must preserve the tail asymptotics despite possible atoms. More seriously, the residual-life statement initially yields the required scaled-tail convergence only for positive arguments. The maxima limit must hold on the whole real line. A proof confined to that half-line cannot establish D(Λ)D(\Lambda)D(Λ); the continuation across its left boundary is the central difficulty highlighted by the article on printed pages 798–799.

Formalization scope

Lean represents FFF as the cumulative distribution function of a probability measure on R\mathbb RR and uses real-valued probabilities of intervals for RRR and FtF_tFt​. The residual-life denominator is positive wherever DrD_rDr​ is asserted. The extrema normalization is indexed by natural numbers, while the residual-life normalization is indexed by real thresholds. The scale is positive at every index; only large indices affect the limit. Weak convergence is encoded at every continuity point of the limit. As Π\PiΠ and Λ\LambdaΛ are continuous, their particular domain conditions amount to convergence at every real argument.

The paper uses two shift conventions: Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) shifts X−tX-tX−t, while the scaled-tail expressions R(bn+xan)R(b_n+xa_n)R(bn​+xan​) shift XXX. Each statement uses the convention of its source passage. The convergence-of-types remark makes explicit the antitonicity and right-continuity of its limiting tails and states its identity where both arguments lie in the half-line on which convergence is known. Gnedenko's criterion is formalized as an equivalence: the printed sentence states the forward implication, and the conclusion of Theorem 3 uses the converse. The page-799 expression R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t) has a missing RRR in the denominator; the formal statement uses the intended R(t)R(t)R(t), consistent with conditional probability and with equation (11). These choices prevent a zero-denominator quotient or an out-of-domain limit identity from trivializing a target. In particular, D0D_0D0​ is part of the definition of Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G): without it a law with a finite upper endpoint would have R(t)=0R(t)=0R(t)=0 for large ttt, the conditional distribution would be the junk quotient 0/0=00/0=00/0=0, and the domain would be mis-specified. In Lemma 3 the limit GGG is the distribution function of a probability measure, assumed continuous on all of R\mathbb RR.

The development needs measure-theoretic cumulative distributions and interval probabilities, filters for limits, and real exponential identities. The domain definitions and scaled-tail predicate are reusable beyond this theorem. Contributions that prove the stated milestones, or supply general lemmas about weak convergence and normalized tails, fit the scope.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2(5), 792–804 (1974). DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996548.
  • B. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44(3), 423–453 (1943). DOI: 10.2307/1968974.
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Residual Life Time at Great Age 3: F Is in the Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of Π_{p,c} iff It Is Tail Equivalent to a Discrete Law with Gap Ratios → e^{pc} and Tail Ratios → e^{−p}Research Paper

Residual life at great age

A component that has survived to age ttt has a residual life time X−tX - tX−t, and in reliability, actuarial work and the analysis of excesses over high thresholds the question is what its conditional law looks like when ttt is large. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974), 792–804) answered this in full generality: after an affine normalization, the only possible limit laws are the exponential law Π\PiΠ, the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, and a two-parameter family of discrete laws Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​. The continuous half of their classification became the Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem behind the peaks-over-threshold method of extreme-value statistics. The discrete half is less known, and this mission treats it: Theorem 5 of the paper (§3, p. 800) describes exactly which lifetimes are attracted to Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.

Discrete limits appear only when the normalization is allowed both a scale and a shift. They describe lifetimes that live, asymptotically, on a lattice-like set of ages whose spacing grows geometrically, with a fixed fraction of survivors failing at each lattice point.

The source is the published article in The Annals of Probability (DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548); page numbers below are the journal's.

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ, distribution function FFF and tail R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}, and assume F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every xxx. The residual life distribution function at age ttt is (1), p. 792,

Ft(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,t+x])μ((t,∞)).F_t(x) = P\{X - t \le x \mid X > t\} = \frac{\mu((t, t+x])}{\mu((t,\infty))}.Ft​(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,∞))μ((t,t+x])​.

A family of distribution functions HtH_tHt​ converges weakly to GGG if Ht(x)→G(x)H_t(x) \to G(x)Ht​(x)→G(x) at every continuity point xxx of GGG. The domain of residual life time attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (p. 798) is the set of FFF with F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx for which some a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 and b(t)b(t)b(t) give

Ft(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.F_t(b(t) + x a(t)) \to G(x) \quad \text{weakly as } t \to \infty.Ft​(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0 the discrete limit law is (p. 793), for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

Πp,c(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+log⁡(1+cx)cp]) (c>0),Πp,0(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+xp]),\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{\log(1+cx)}{cp}\Big]\Big) \ (c > 0), \qquad \Pi_{p,0}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{x}{p}\Big]\Big),Πp,c​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+cplog(1+cx)​]) (c>0),Πp,0​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+px​]),

and Πp,c(x)=0\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 0Πp,c​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0; [ ⋅ ][\,\cdot\,][⋅] is the integer part. Its tail takes the values e−p,e−2p,…e^{-p}, e^{-2p}, \dotse−p,e−2p,… and jumps at (ekpc−1)/c(e^{kpc} - 1)/c(ekpc−1)/c, k=0,1,…k = 0, 1, \dotsk=0,1,… (at kpkpkp if c=0c = 0c=0).

A distribution function F0=1−R0F_0 = 1 - R_0F0​=1−R0​ is discrete with jump sequence t0<t1<⋯t_0 < t_1 < \cdotst0​<t1​<⋯ if the tnt_ntn​ are unbounded, each carries positive mass and there is no other mass. Two distribution functions with Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for all xxx are tail equivalent if 1−F1(x)∼1−F2(x)1 - F_1(x) \sim 1 - F_2(x)1−F1​(x)∼1−F2​(x) as x→∞x \to \inftyx→∞. The conditions of §3 are

(12a)  tn+1−tntn−tn−1→epc,(12b)  R0(tn+1)R0(tn)→e−p.\text{(12a)}\ \ \frac{t_{n+1} - t_n}{t_n - t_{n-1}} \to e^{pc}, \qquad \text{(12b)}\ \ \frac{R_0(t_{n+1})}{R_0(t_n)} \to e^{-p}.(12a)  tn​−tn−1​tn+1​−tn​​→epc,(12b)  R0​(tn​)R0​(tn+1​)​→e−p.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 800)

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0,

F∈Dr(Πp,c)  ⟺  F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0 whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c}) \iff F \text{ is tail equivalent to a discrete } F_0 \text{ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).}F∈Dr​(Πp,c​)⟺F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0​ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).

Milestones

  1. (§3, pp. 799–800) A discrete FFF satisfying (12a) and (12b) lies in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​).
  2. (§3, p. 800) If F1F_1F1​ is tail equivalent to F2∈Dr(Πp,c)F_2 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F2​∈Dr​(Πp,c​), then F1∈Dr(Πp,c)F_1 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F1​∈Dr​(Πp,c​). Milestones 1 and 2 give the "if" half.
  3. (Proof of Theorem 5, p. 800) If F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​), there are bn↑∞b_n \uparrow \inftybn​↑∞ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p and a discrete F0F_0F0​, tail equivalent to FFF, with R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) at its jumps.
  4. (Proof of Theorem 5, pp. 800–801) Such an F0F_0F0​ satisfies (12b) and (12a). Milestones 3 and 4 give the "only if" half.

Significance

Theorem 5, together with Theorems 1, 3 and 4 of the paper, completes the description of residual-life attraction: every nondegenerate limit is of one of the listed types, and each type's domain of attraction is identified. For the discrete types the answer is a statement purely about the geometry of the atoms of an approximating law, which makes membership checkable for concrete lifetimes (geometric-type laws on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} fall under c=0c = 0c=0, laws on a geometric grid {λn}\{\lambda^n\}{λn} under c>0c > 0c>0). It also explains why discrete limits are invisible when only a scale normalization is allowed.

The theorem has been proved since 1974; it has not been formalized. A machine-checked development would supply weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, residual-life normalizations and tail equivalence as reusable objects, and would check a proof that the paper compresses into a page, including a convergence-of-types step on a half line that the paper cites from its own §1.

Difficulty

The "if" half is close to a computation, but the computation is about weak convergence to a step function: the normed tails converge only off the jumps, and the normalization must be extended from the jump times tnt_ntn​ to all real ages ttt.

The "only if" half is the core. From F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​) alone one has to manufacture the atoms tnt_ntn​ of a discrete law that FFF itself need not have. The obvious attempt, reading the atoms off the jumps of FFF, fails because FFF may be continuous: membership in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) only says that FFF drops by a factor close to e−pe^{-p}e−p over short stretches, relative to the normalization, and never by an intermediate factor. Making "never by an intermediate factor" precise uniformly in the age ttt, with normalizations a(t),b(t)a(t), b(t)a(t),b(t) about which nothing but their existence is known, is where the work lies; the same lack of control over a(t)a(t)a(t) is what makes the gap ratio (12a) hard to extract.

Formalization scope

A law is a measure μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; the tail R(x)R(x)R(x) is (μ (Set.Ioi x)).toReal, and Ft(x)F_t(x)Ft​(x) is μ((t, t+x]) / μ((t,∞)). Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (InDr) includes F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx, normalizations a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 for all real ttt, and "weakly" means convergence at every continuity point of GGG and nowhere else; requiring convergence at the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ would make Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) empty. Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ (piPC) is defined by cases c=0c = 0c=0 / c>0c > 0c>0 with Int.floor, so that c=0c = 0c=0 is not the junk value of a division by zero; it is used only with p>0p > 0p>0, c≥0c \ge 0c≥0. A discrete law with jump sequence ttt (IsDiscreteWithJumps) has ttt strictly increasing and tending to ∞\infty∞, positive mass at each tnt_ntn​ and no mass elsewhere. (12a) is indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Tail equivalence (TailEquiv) includes Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for both laws.

Conventions and disclosed readings:

  • The page proves the "if" direction by showing convergence to a function of the type of 1−Πp,c1 - \Pi_{p,c}1−Πp,c​; since DrD_rDr​ lets a,ba, ba,b be chosen freely, milestone 1 is stated with Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ itself.
  • The proof of Theorem 5 uses the normalization (2)–(3) of p. 794, where b(t)b(t)b(t) shifts XXX rather than X−tX - tX−t; milestone 3 only asserts the existence of the sequence bnb_nbn​ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p, so no convention enters its statement.
  • "F0F_0F0​ only takes the values F(bn)F(b_n)F(bn​)" is formalized as R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) for all nnn, the form the next paragraph of the page uses. This identity is a hypothesis of milestone 4, as on the page, and cannot be dropped: a law tail equivalent to FFF may carry extra atoms of vanishing relative mass, at which (12a) and (12b) fail.
  • The page identifies the limit of the gap ratios as the scale constant AAA of a functional equation; milestone 4 states it as epce^{pc}epc, the gap ratio of the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.
  • Theorem 5 prints "distribution fuction"; this typo is kept in the quoted text only.

No statement is trivialized: Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) is nonempty (the geometric law on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} lies in Dr(Πp,0)D_r(\Pi_{p,0})Dr​(Πp,0​)), and Theorem 5 is not a definitional unfolding, since DrD_rDr​ is defined by weak convergence and the right-hand side by discrete approximation.

A complete development needs: weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, a convergence-of-types lemma on a half line (the Remark after Lemma 1 of the paper, p. 795), and elementary facts on step functions. The first two are reusable across the whole paper and across extreme-value theory. Contributions of either half of the theorem, or of the convergence-of-types lemma, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema, L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, The Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
  • B. V. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44 (1943), 423–453. https://doi.org/10.2307/1968974
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970.
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Some Theoretical Aspects of Road Traffic Research I: Time-Mean Speed Equals Space-Mean Speed plus σₛ²/v̄ₛ, so v̄ₜ ≥ v̄ₛ with Equality Only Without Speed VariationResearch Paper

Why two traffic speed averages differ

A speed recorded as a vehicle passes a fixed point and a speed recorded among vehicles occupying a road segment answer different questions. Fast vehicles pass a detector more often per unit time; slow vehicles remain visible along the segment for longer. Traffic studies therefore need to identify which distribution a measurement samples before comparing average speeds. J. G. Wardrop made this distinction explicit in his 1952 treatment of road traffic, then quantified it through the variance of the spatial speed distribution (Wardrop 1952, pp. 327–331 and Appendix II).

The result belongs to the paper's mathematical account of traffic flow. It is useful even when the subsidiary streams do not describe a random vehicle process: the identities concern finite positive flows and speeds. The paper also applies the same distributions to speed samples from radar and aerial photographs and to an idealized count of overtaking events (Wardrop 1952, pp. 330, 333–334).

Traffic streams and their two distributions

A road's traffic stream is divided into CCC subsidiary streams, indexed by i=1,…,Ci=1,\ldots,Ci=1,…,C. Stream iii has flow qiq_iqi​, the number of vehicles passing a point per unit time, and speed viv_ivi​. Its concentration is ki=qi/vik_i=q_i/v_iki​=qi​/vi​, the number of vehicles occupying a unit road length. Total flow and concentration are Q=∑iqiQ=\sum_i q_iQ=∑i​qi​ and K=∑ikiK=\sum_i k_iK=∑i​ki​. The time frequency fi=qi/Qf_i=q_i/Qfi​=qi​/Q weights each stream by how often its vehicles pass a point. The space frequency fi′=ki/Kf'_i=k_i/Kfi′​=ki​/K weights it by the fraction of vehicles present along the road.

The time-mean speed is vˉt=∑iqivi/Q=∑ifivi\bar v_t=\sum_i q_i v_i/Q=\sum_i f_i v_ivˉt​=∑i​qi​vi​/Q=∑i​fi​vi​. The space-mean speed is vˉs=∑ikivi/K=∑ifi′vi\bar v_s=\sum_i k_i v_i/K=\sum_i f'_i v_ivˉs​=∑i​ki​vi​/K=∑i​fi′​vi​. Both are averages of the same speeds; the weights differ. Wardrop defines the space-distribution variance independently as σs2=∑iki(vi−vˉs)2/K\sigma_s^2=\sum_i k_i(v_i-\bar v_s)^2/Kσs2​=∑i​ki​(vi​−vˉs​)2/K, and the corresponding coefficient of variation as cs=σs/vˉsc_s=\sigma_s/\bar v_scs​=σs​/vˉs​ (equations (1)–(3), (7), pp. 328–331).

These are finite sums, not limits of a stochastic process. The model requires at least one subsidiary stream and positive flow and speed for each stream. Positive flows ensure that every speed in the equality criterion belongs to a present stream; positive speeds make concentration meaningful. The count CCC is allowed to be one. In that case both means coincide and the variance is zero, as the formulas require.

Formalization targets

The main target is Wardrop's equation (6), together with its stated comparison and equality case (p. 330; Appendix II, p. 356):

vˉt=vˉs+σs2vˉs,vˉs≤vˉt,vˉt=vˉs  ⟺  vi=vj for every i,j.\bar v_t=\bar v_s+\frac{\sigma_s^2}{\bar v_s},\qquad \bar v_s\le\bar v_t,\qquad \bar v_t=\bar v_s\iff v_i=v_j\text{ for every }i,j.vˉt​=vˉs​+vˉs​σs2​​,vˉs​≤vˉt​,vˉt​=vˉs​⟺vi​=vj​ for every i,j.

The subsidiary targets follow the paper's order. Equation (4) says kivi=qik_i v_i=q_iki​vi​=qi​ for each stream, giving equation (5), Q=KvˉsQ=K\bar v_sQ=Kvˉs​. Appendix II then uses the centered identity ∑ifi′(vi−vˉs)=0\sum_i f'_i(v_i-\bar v_s)=0∑i​fi′​(vi​−vˉs​)=0 and rewrites the time mean as vˉt=(∑ifi′vi2)/vˉs\bar v_t=(\sum_i f'_i v_i^2)/\bar v_svˉt​=(∑i​fi′​vi2​)/vˉs​. These three claims are the mission milestones. Equation (8) is included as a companion formulation:

vˉt=vˉs(1+cs2).\bar v_t=\bar v_s(1+c_s^2).vˉt​=vˉs​(1+cs2​).

The mission also records the paper's formulas for equally weighted time and space speed samples and the equivalent space- and time-frequency formulas for the idealized overtaking count. These companions use the same definitions without changing the main target (pp. 330–334).

What the result supplies

The identity gives an exact size and direction for the difference between the two averages. Since the variance is nonnegative and vˉs\bar v_svˉs​ is positive, the time mean cannot fall below the space mean. If all constituent speeds are equal, the difference vanishes; if any two present streams have different speeds, the difference is positive. The formula therefore lets a reader decide whether two reported speed averages can be compared directly, and it identifies the spatial variance as the quantity needed to convert between them.

The sample formulas sharpen that interpretation. Equal weights among vehicles passing a point make the time mean the arithmetic mean of the sampled speeds and the space mean their harmonic mean. Equal concentrations reverse which mean is arithmetic; the time mean becomes ∑ivi2/∑ivi\sum_i v_i^2/\sum_i v_i∑i​vi2​/∑i​vi​. The overtaking formulas express a single pairwise count using either frequency system, provided the speeds are ordered and the paper's assumption of no interference with overtaking is used (Wardrop 1952, pp. 330, 333–334).

Wardrop proved these formulas in print. The remaining work in this mission is a machine-checked proof of the finite-sum identities and their strict equality case. The proposal supplies typed statements and definitions, but the theorem proofs are open. The resulting concentration and frequency definitions are reusable in other traffic-flow formalizations; the statements also provide small algebraic interfaces for testing more elaborate traffic models.

Where the formal proof needs care

The relation looks like a routine identity for weighted means, but the two weight systems are coupled through ki=qi/vik_i=q_i/v_iki​=qi​/vi​. One cannot treat the time and space frequencies as independent arbitrary probability vectors and still obtain equation (6). The strict case needs more than nonnegativity of the variance: it needs the fact that every space weight is positive, so zero variance forces every constituent speed to equal the mean. The single-stream case and every denominator need the same attention.

The overtaking statement has a separate modelling boundary. Its algebraic equalities use a rate defined by pairwise speed differences. Wardrop's physical interpretation of that rate assumes that overtaking does not interfere with other overtaking. The mission records the identities for that idealized rate, without claiming that a measured road necessarily meets the physical assumption.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin C for the streams and real numbers for qiq_iqi​, viv_ivi​, kik_iki​, both means, the variance, and the overtaking rate. Finite sums are taken over all streams. The theorem hypotheses require 0<C0<C0<C, 0<qi0<q_i0<qi​, and 0<vi0<v_i0<vi​ for every iii. These requirements make QQQ, KKK, and vˉs\bar v_svˉs​ positive; Lean's total division would otherwise assign a zero value at a zero denominator that has no meaning in the paper's model. For the overtaking identity, StrictMono v retains Wardrop's ordering v1<⋯<vCv_1<\cdots<v_Cv1​<⋯<vC​.

The variance is defined from equation (7), ∑iki(vi−vˉs)2/K\sum_i k_i(v_i-\bar v_s)^2/K∑i​ki​(vi​−vˉs​)2/K. Defining it by rearranging equation (6) would make the target true by definition and would erase the mathematical claim. The standard deviation uses the real square root of that variance. An observation in the sample companion is represented as one subsidiary stream of equal time or space weight; this is the formal reading of the paper's sampling paragraphs. No probability-measure library is needed, since fif_ifi​ and fi′f'_ifi′​ are explicit finite weights.

A complete proof needs finite-sum rearrangements, elementary real division under positive denominators, nonnegative weighted squares, and the equality case of a positive weighted sum of squares. The definitions and the mean identities are welcome as separate reusable contributions. The mission does not include the paper's normal approximation for overtaking density in equation (11), which Wardrop presents as an approximation rather than an exact finite-sum theorem.

Selected references

  • J. G. Wardrop, Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Part II 1 (1952), 325–362. DOI: 10.1680/ipeds.1952.11259.
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Probability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Tight Constant in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz Inequality II: Binomial Tail Bound P(S − np > nε) ≤ exp(−nε²/(2(p + ε/3)(q − ε/3))) for 0 < ε ≤ qResearch Paper

Motivation

Exponential bounds for the tails of the binomial distribution are among the most frequently used tools in probability, statistics and the analysis of algorithms: they control the number of successes in independent trials, the deviation of an empirical frequency from its mean, and, through counting arguments, the empirical distribution function itself. The two classical bounds are Hoeffding's inequality, which ignores the variance, and Bernstein's inequality, which uses the variance pqpqpq but loses accuracy for large deviations. Both are recorded in Shorack and Wellner, Empirical Processes with Applications to Statistics (1986), p. 440.

In his 1990 paper establishing the tight constant 222 in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality, P. Massart obtained, as a by-product of the proof, a binomial tail bound that implies both classical inequalities and, in his words, "does not seem to be known" (Massart 1990, p. 1271). Its ingredient, a lower bound for the Cramér transform of the Bernoulli law (Lemma 1), is also used in the proof of the main DKW result. This mission formalizes that by-product: Theorem 2, Lemma 1 and the Cramér–Chernoff bound (Comment 3) through which they are combined.

Setting

Fix an integer n≥0n \ge 0n≥0 and a success probability p∈[0,1]p \in [0,1]p∈[0,1], and write q=1−pq = 1 - pq=1−p. A random variable SSS has the binomial distribution B(n,p)\mathcal B(n,p)B(n,p) if it counts the successes in nnn independent trials, each succeeding with probability ppp: P(S=k)=(nk)pkqn−kP(S = k) = \binom nk p^k q^{n-k}P(S=k)=(kn​)pkqn−k for k=0,…,nk = 0,\dots,nk=0,…,n. Its mean is npnpnp. The quantity of interest is the upper tail P(S−np>nε)P(S - np > n\varepsilon)P(S−np>nε) for a deviation ε\varepsilonε with 0<ε≤q0 < \varepsilon \le q0<ε≤q (for ε>q\varepsilon > qε>q the event is empty).

Two auxiliary functions appear in Lemma 1. For 0<ε≤q<10 < \varepsilon \le q < 10<ε≤q<1 (so that p>0p > 0p>0),

h(p,ε)=(p+ε)log⁡p+εp+(q−ε)log⁡q−εq,h(p,\varepsilon) = (p+\varepsilon)\log\frac{p+\varepsilon}{p} + (q-\varepsilon)\log\frac{q-\varepsilon}{q},h(p,ε)=(p+ε)logpp+ε​+(q−ε)logqq−ε​,

which is the Cramér transform of the Bernoulli law with parameter ppp at the point p+εp + \varepsilonp+ε, i.e. the relative entropy between the Bernoulli laws with parameters p+εp+\varepsilonp+ε and ppp. For t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

φ(t)=t−t22(1+2t/3)−log⁡(1+t).\varphi(t) = t - \frac{t^2}{2(1 + 2t/3)} - \log(1+t).φ(t)=t−2(1+2t/3)t2​−log(1+t).

In the Lean development these are MassartDKW.Binom.h and MassartDKW.Binom.phi.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 1271)

If SSS has the binomial distribution B(n,p)\mathcal B(n,p)B(n,p) and q=1−pq = 1 - pq=1−p, then for every ε\varepsilonε with 0<ε≤q0 < \varepsilon \le q0<ε≤q,

P(S−np>nε)≤exp⁡ ⁣(−nε22(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)).P(S - np > n\varepsilon) \le \exp\!\left(-\frac{n\varepsilon^2}{2(p+\varepsilon/3)(q-\varepsilon/3)}\right).P(S−np>nε)≤exp(−2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)nε2​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1(i) (p. 1272): φ\varphiφ is positive, increasing and convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), with φ(t)/t→1/4\varphi(t)/t \to 1/4φ(t)/t→1/4 as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞.
  2. Lemma 1(ii) (p. 1272): for 0<ε≤q=1−p<10 < \varepsilon \le q = 1 - p < 10<ε≤q=1−p<1 and t=ε/(q−ε)t = \varepsilon/(q-\varepsilon)t=ε/(q−ε),
h(p,ε)≥ε22(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)+εφ(t)t.h(p,\varepsilon) \ge \frac{\varepsilon^2}{2(p+\varepsilon/3)(q-\varepsilon/3)} + \frac{\varepsilon\varphi(t)}{t}.h(p,ε)≥2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)ε2​+tεφ(t)​.
  1. Comment 3 (p. 1273): for S∼B(n,p)S \sim \mathcal B(n,p)S∼B(n,p), P(S−np>nε)≤exp⁡(−n h(p,ε))P(S - np > n\varepsilon) \le \exp(-n\,h(p,\varepsilon))P(S−np>nε)≤exp(−nh(p,ε)).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 has the shape of Bernstein's inequality with the variance proxy pq+ε/3pq + \varepsilon/3pq+ε/3 replaced by the smaller (p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)(p+\varepsilon/3)(q-\varepsilon/3)(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3); the second factor shrinks as ε\varepsilonε approaches qqq, so the bound is sharper in the large-deviation range, and it implies both Bernstein's and Hoeffding's inequalities for binomial tails. Lemma 1(ii) is a quantitative lower bound on the Bernoulli relative entropy, with an explicit nonnegative correction term εφ(t)/t\varepsilon\varphi(t)/tεφ(t)/t, which is reusable wherever Chernoff bounds for Bernoulli sums are converted into closed-form exponents. In the paper, the same lemma is a step of the proof of the tight Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on the page, by a short calculus argument for Lemma 1 and the classical Cramér–Chernoff computation for Comment 3. To our knowledge none of the three statements has a machine-checked proof. The work this mission asks for is formalizing that known proof: the analysis of φ\varphiφ (signs of derivatives, the limit at infinity), the inequality between hhh and the explicit quadratic term, the exponential-moment computation for the binomial law in Mathlib's measure-theoretic setting, and the bookkeeping of the boundary cases ε=q\varepsilon = qε=q, p=0p = 0p=0 and n=0n = 0n=0.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 2 is to bound the binomial moment generating function and optimize; this reproduces Comment 3, and the exponent it gives is the transcendental function h(p,ε)h(p,\varepsilon)h(p,ε), not the rational expression in the theorem. The step that needs care is the comparison of hhh with ε2/[2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)]\varepsilon^2/[2(p+\varepsilon/3)(q-\varepsilon/3)]ε2/[2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)] uniformly in 0<ε≤q0 < \varepsilon \le q0<ε≤q: a second-order Taylor expansion of hhh in ε\varepsilonε gives only the local behaviour near ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0, and a bound proved by Taylor expansion alone does not survive up to ε=q\varepsilon = qε=q, where the second logarithm of hhh degenerates and t=ε/(q−ε)t = \varepsilon/(q-\varepsilon)t=ε/(q−ε) blows up. The endpoint ε=q\varepsilon = qε=q therefore has to be treated as a limit.

Formalization scope

The binomial law is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.binomial n p : Measure ℕ with p : unitInterval; SSS is an N\mathbb NN-valued map on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P) with HasLaw S (binomial n p) P. Probabilities are values of the measure in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], compared with real bounds through ENNReal.ofReal. The event is the strict upper tail {(n:R)ε<S−np}\{(n:\mathbb R)\varepsilon < S - np\}{(n:R)ε<S−np}. The goal assumes only 0<ε≤1−p0 < \varepsilon \le 1 - p0<ε≤1−p, as on the page: n=0n = 0n=0 and p=0p = 0p=0 are allowed, and the denominator 2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3)2(p+\varepsilon/3)(q-\varepsilon/3)2(p+ε/3)(q−ε/3) is positive on the whole range.

Conventions and added hypotheses (qqq is written out as 1−p1 - p1−p throughout):

  • Lean's log⁡0=0\log 0 = 0log0=0 and x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0: hhh is only meaningful for p>0p > 0p>0, so Lemma 1(ii) and Comment 3 assume 0<p0 < p0<p (the page's q<1q < 1q<1). The goal does not.
  • Lemma 1(ii) is stated in two cases. For ε<q\varepsilon < qε<q, t=ε/(q−ε)t = \varepsilon/(q-\varepsilon)t=ε/(q−ε) is a real number. For ε=q\varepsilon = qε=q, t=∞t = \inftyt=∞ and the correction term is its limit ε/4\varepsilon/4ε/4; reading t=ε/0=0t = \varepsilon/0 = 0t=ε/0=0 in Lean would give a weaker statement, which is ruled out.
  • "Positive" in Lemma 1(i) is stated for t>0t > 0t>0, since φ(0)=0\varphi(0) = 0φ(0)=0; "increasing" is strict monotonicity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

A formalization that states the goal with the exponent n h(p,ε)n\,h(p,\varepsilon)nh(p,ε), or assumes Lemma 1 or Comment 3 as hypotheses, or restricts to ε<q\varepsilon < qε<q, is not this theorem: the goal carries the explicit constants and the full range 0<ε≤q0 < \varepsilon \le q0<ε≤q.

Needed infrastructure: elementary real analysis of log⁡\loglog (derivatives, monotonicity from derivative sign, limits at infinity), the moment generating function of the binomial law (or of a sum of independent Bernoulli variables) and Markov's inequality. The bound on the Bernoulli relative entropy and the binomial Chernoff bound are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the three milestones, and helper lemmas computing E[eθS]=(q+peθ)n\mathbb E[e^{\theta S}] = (q + pe^\theta)^nE[eθS]=(q+peθ)n for Mathlib's binomial.

Selected references

  • P. Massart, The tight constant in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality, Annals of Probability 18(3):1269–1283, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990746
  • G. R. Shorack and J. A. Wellner, Empirical Processes with Applications to Statistics, Wiley, 1986 (p. 440: Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities for binomial tails). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719017
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58:13–30, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
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Convex OptimizationMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers VI: The Group-Lasso Block Update Is Zero iff ‖Aᵢᵀv‖₂ ≤ λ/ρ, Otherwise Ridge with ν‖xᵢ‖₂ = λ/ρTextbook

Why distributed model fitting

Fitting a statistical model usually means solving a convex problem of the form

minimizel(Ax−b)+r(x),\text{minimize}\quad l(Ax-b)+r(x),minimizel(Ax−b)+r(x),

where A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n holds one training example per row and one feature per column, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm is the response, lll is a convex loss and rrr a convex regularizer. Least squares, the lasso, logistic regression and the support vector machine are all of this form. When either dimension is very large, or the data are stored on many machines, the problem has to be solved by processors that each see only a block of AAA.

Chapter 8 of Boyd, Parikh, Chu, Peleato and Eckstein's monograph on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) (Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 3(1), 2011) shows how ADMM does this in two ways: by splitting AAA by rows (splitting across examples, §8.2), which turns the problem into a global consensus problem, and by splitting it by columns (splitting across features, §8.3), which turns it into a sharing problem. In both cases the method is only practical because the individual updates have closed forms or reduce to small standard problems. This mission formalizes those closed forms, culminating in the update for the group lasso.

Setting

Vectors are in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​; ∥x∥1=∑j∣xj∣\|x\|_1=\sum_j|x_j|∥x∥1​=∑j​∣xj​∣. Throughout, ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 is the ADMM penalty parameter and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 a regularization weight.

Splitting across examples. Partition AAA and bbb by rows into NNN blocks Ai∈Rmi×nA_i\in\mathbb R^{m_i\times n}Ai​∈Rmi​×n, bi∈Rmib_i\in\mathbb R^{m_i}bi​∈Rmi​. With scaled dual variables uiu_iui​ and averages xˉ=1N∑ixi\bar x=\frac1N\sum_ix_ixˉ=N1​∑i​xi​, uˉ=1N∑iui\bar u=\frac1N\sum_iu_iuˉ=N1​∑i​ui​, the consensus ADMM iteration is

xik+1=argmin⁡xi(li(Aixi−bi)+ρ2∥xi−zk+uik∥22),zk+1=argmin⁡z(r(z)+Nρ2∥z−xˉk+1−uˉk∥22),x_i^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_{x_i}\Bigl(l_i(A_ix_i-b_i)+\tfrac{\rho}{2}\|x_i-z^k+u_i^k\|_2^2\Bigr),\quad z^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_{z}\Bigl(r(z)+\tfrac{N\rho}{2}\|z-\bar x^{k+1}-\bar u^k\|_2^2\Bigr),xik+1​=xi​argmin​(li​(Ai​xi​−bi​)+2ρ​∥xi​−zk+uik​∥22​),zk+1=zargmin​(r(z)+2Nρ​∥z−xˉk+1−uˉk∥22​),

followed by uik+1=uik+xik+1−zk+1u_i^{k+1}=u_i^k+x_i^{k+1}-z^{k+1}uik+1​=uik​+xik+1​−zk+1. For the lasso, l(w)=12∥w∥22l(w)=\frac12\|w\|_2^2l(w)=21​∥w∥22​ and r=λ∥⋅∥1r=\lambda\|\cdot\|_1r=λ∥⋅∥1​.

Splitting across features. Partition x=(x1,…,xN)x=(x_1,\dots,x_N)x=(x1​,…,xN​) with xi∈Rnix_i\in\mathbb R^{n_i}xi​∈Rni​ and A=[A1⋯AN]A=[A_1\cdots A_N]A=[A1​⋯AN​] with Ai∈Rm×niA_i\in\mathbb R^{m\times n_i}Ai​∈Rm×ni​, so Ax=∑iAixiAx=\sum_iA_ix_iAx=∑i​Ai​xi​. Introducing zi=Aixiz_i=A_ix_izi​=Ai​xi​ gives a sharing problem; its ADMM zzz-update minimizes l(∑izi−b)+∑iρ2∥Aixi−zi+ui∥22l(\sum_iz_i-b)+\sum_i\frac\rho2\|A_ix_i-z_i+u_i\|_2^2l(∑i​zi​−b)+∑i​2ρ​∥Ai​xi​−zi​+ui​∥22​. Writing Ax‾=1N∑iAixi\overline{Ax}=\frac1N\sum_iA_ix_iAx=N1​∑i​Ai​xi​ and zˉ\bar zzˉ for the average of the ziz_izi​, this reduces to a single problem in zˉ∈Rm\bar z\in\mathbb R^mzˉ∈Rm, all dual variables coincide, and each block update minimizes

ρ2∥Aixi−v∥22+ri(xi)\tfrac{\rho}{2}\|A_ix_i-v\|_2^2+r_i(x_i)2ρ​∥Ai​xi​−v∥22​+ri​(xi​)

for a vector v∈Rmv\in\mathbb R^mv∈Rm assembled from the previous iterate. For the group lasso, ri(xi)=λ∥xi∥2r_i(x_i)=\lambda\|x_i\|_2ri​(xi​)=λ∥xi​∥2​ (not squared).

Soft thresholding is Sκ(a)=a−κS_\kappa(a)=a-\kappaSκ​(a)=a−κ for a>κa>\kappaa>κ, 000 for ∣a∣≤κ|a|\le\kappa∣a∣≤κ, a+κa+\kappaa+κ for a<−κa<-\kappaa<−κ.

Formalization targets

Goal: the group-lasso block update (§8.3.2, pp. 69–70)

Let h(x)=ρ2∥Aix−v∥22+λ∥x∥2h(x)=\frac\rho2\|A_ix-v\|_2^2+\lambda\|x\|_2h(x)=2ρ​∥Ai​x−v∥22​+λ∥x∥2​ on Rni\mathbb R^{n_i}Rni​ and x(ν)=(AiTAi+νI)−1AiTvx(\nu)=(A_i^TA_i+\nu I)^{-1}A_i^Tvx(ν)=(AiT​Ai​+νI)−1AiT​v. Then

0∈argmin⁡h  ⟺  ∥AiTv∥2≤λ/ρ,0\in\operatorname*{argmin}h\iff\|A_i^Tv\|_2\le\lambda/\rho,0∈argminh⟺∥AiT​v∥2​≤λ/ρ,

and then 000 is the only minimizer; if ∥AiTv∥2>λ/ρ\|A_i^Tv\|_2>\lambda/\rho∥AiT​v∥2​>λ/ρ, there is exactly one ν>0\nu>0ν>0 with ν∥x(ν)∥2=λ/ρ\nu\|x(\nu)\|_2=\lambda/\rhoν∥x(ν)∥2​=λ/ρ, the point x(ν)x(\nu)x(ν) minimizes hhh, and every minimizer is of this form.

Milestones

  1. Ridge xix_ixi​-update (§8.2.1, p. 65): xik+1=(AiTAi+ρI)−1(AiTbi+ρ(zk−uik))x_i^{k+1}=(A_i^TA_i+\rho I)^{-1}(A_i^Tb_i+\rho(z^k-u_i^k))xik+1​=(AiT​Ai​+ρI)−1(AiT​bi​+ρ(zk−uik​)), the unique minimizer.
  2. Soft-thresholding zzz-update (§8.2.1, p. 65): zk+1=Sλ/(ρN)(xˉk+1+uˉk)z^{k+1}=S_{\lambda/(\rho N)}(\bar x^{k+1}+\bar u^k)zk+1=Sλ/(ρN)​(xˉk+1+uˉk) componentwise.
  3. Reduction to zˉ\bar zzˉ and equal duals (§8.3, p. 68): minimizers of the NNN-block zzz-update are exactly the vectors zi=zˉ+Aixi+ui−Ax‾−uˉz_i=\bar z+A_ix_i+u_i-\overline{Ax}-\bar uzi​=zˉ+Ai​xi​+ui​−Ax−uˉ with zˉ\bar zzˉ solving the zˉ\bar zzˉ-update, and then uik+1=Ax‾k+1+uˉk−zˉk+1u_i^{k+1}=\overline{Ax}^{k+1}+\bar u^k-\bar z^{k+1}uik+1​=Axk+1+uˉk−zˉk+1 for every iii.
  4. Feature-split lasso zˉ\bar zzˉ-update (§8.3.1, p. 69): zˉk+1=(b+ρAx‾k+1+ρuk)/(N+ρ)\bar z^{k+1}=(b+\rho\overline{Ax}^{k+1}+\rho u^k)/(N+\rho)zˉk+1=(b+ρAxk+1+ρuk)/(N+ρ).
  5. Lasso zero test, corrected (§8.3.1, p. 69): 000 minimizes ρ2∥Aix−v∥22+λ∥x∥1\frac\rho2\|A_ix-v\|_2^2+\lambda\|x\|_12ρ​∥Ai​x−v∥22​+λ∥x∥1​ iff ∥AiTv∥∞≤λ/ρ\|A_i^Tv\|_\infty\le\lambda/\rho∥AiT​v∥∞​≤λ/ρ.
  6. Eigendecomposition identity (§8.3.2, p. 70): if AiTAi=Q diag(μ)QTA_i^TA_i=Q\,\mathbf{diag}(\mu)Q^TAiT​Ai​=Qdiag(μ)QT with QQQ orthogonal, then ∥x(ν)∥2=∥diag(μ+ν1)−1QTAiTv∥2\|x(\nu)\|_2=\|\mathbf{diag}(\mu+\nu\mathbf 1)^{-1}Q^TA_i^Tv\|_2∥x(ν)∥2​=∥diag(μ+ν1)−1QTAiT​v∥2​ for ν>0\nu>0ν>0.
  7. SVM zˉ\bar zzˉ-update (§8.3.4, pp. 70–71): the minimizer of 1T(Nzˉ+1)++ρ2∥zˉ−Ax‾−u∥22\mathbf 1^T(N\bar z+\mathbf 1)_++\frac\rho2\|\bar z-\overline{Ax}-u\|_2^21T(Nzˉ+1)+​+2ρ​∥zˉ−Ax−u∥22​ is a shifted soft thresholding of v=Ax‾+uv=\overline{Ax}+uv=Ax+u.

Significance

The goal result says that a group-lasso block either switches off entirely, which is how group sparsity arises, or solves a ridge regression whose ridge parameter is the unique root of a scalar monotone equation; this is what makes the distributed group lasso implementable with one cached factorization per block and a bisection. The milestones are the remaining closed forms that turn the two distributed schemes of Chapter 8 into concrete algorithms, and the reduction of milestone 3 is the structural fact that lets feature splitting carry a single dual variable.

The book derives these facts in running text and states them without proof. None of them is formalized on Prove2Me, and the book's printed zero test for the lasso (p. 69) uses the wrong norm; a machine-checked collection of the correct updates removes that kind of error from the record and gives later ADMM missions a verified library of update formulas.

Difficulty

Each statement is a characterization of all minimizers of a nonsmooth convex function, not a check that a formula satisfies a stationarity equation. For the goal, the nonsmooth term λ∥x∥2\lambda\|x\|_2λ∥x∥2​ has a kink at 000, hhh need not be strictly convex when AiA_iAi​ has a nontrivial kernel, and the existence and uniqueness of the parameter ν\nuν is part of the claim rather than an assumption: the obvious move of assuming a suitable ν\nuν and checking the formula proves nothing about the case split or about uniqueness, and the singular case of AiTAiA_i^TA_iAiT​Ai​ is exactly where naive arguments break. Milestone 3 must handle an arbitrary convex loss lll, with no closed form at all.

Formalization scope

Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); matrices are Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ acting through Matrix.toEuclideanLin; blocks are indexed by Fin N (0-based); the regularization weight λ\lambdaλ is lam; the eigenvalue vector the book also calls λ\lambdaλ (p. 70) is μ. "xxx minimizes FFF" is Mathlib's IsMinOn F Set.univ x. Iteration superscripts are dropped: each statement is about one update with the previous iterate given. Explicit choices:

  • ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and N≥1N\ge1N≥1 are hypotheses wherever the book uses them.
  • Closed forms are stated as "minimizer   ⟺  \iff⟺ formula", which contains existence and uniqueness; the book's "the solution" in §8.3.2 is stated as existence and uniqueness of ν\nuν plus a characterization of every minimizer, with no invertibility hypothesis on AiTAiA_i^TA_iAiT​Ai​.
  • (AiTAi+νI)−1(A_i^TA_i+\nu I)^{-1}(AiT​Ai​+νI)−1 is Mathlib's matrix inverse, used only for ν>0\nu>0ν>0, where it is the true inverse.
  • The loss in milestone 3 is real valued and convex, as in (8.1).
  • The lasso zero test is stated with ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​; the book prints ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​, which is false for the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ term.
  • The SVM zˉ\bar zzˉ-update uses the coefficient ρ/2\rho/2ρ/2 printed on p. 70, which matches the printed thresholds N/ρN/\rhoN/ρ.
  • The book's "assuming AiA_iAi​ is tall" (p. 70) is not imposed; the identity holds without it.

A statement that only checks that x(ν)x(\nu)x(ν) satisfies the optimality equation, or that assumes the parameter ν\nuν exists, does not capture the goal; the goal asserts existence and uniqueness of ν\nuν and describes every minimizer of hhh.

Contributions welcome: subgradient calculus for ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​ and ∥⋅∥1\|\cdot\|_1∥⋅∥1​ in EuclideanSpace, first-order optimality for convex quadratics plus a convex nonsmooth term, and the monotonicity of ν↦ν∥(M+νI)−1c∥2\nu\mapsto\nu\|(M+\nu I)^{-1}c\|_2ν↦ν∥(M+νI)−1c∥2​ for positive semidefinite MMM; these are reusable for every proximal and ADMM update.

Selected references

  • S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, J. Eckstein, Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 3(1):1–122, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000016
  • M. Yuan, Y. Lin, Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 68(1):49–67, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00532.x
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 58(1):267–288, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
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Convex OptimizationLinear algebra·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers IV: The Covariance-Selection X-Update Is Q·diag((λᵢ + √(λᵢ² + 4ρ))/(2ρ))·QᵀTextbook

Why closed-form ADMM updates for ℓ1 problems

Many estimation problems in statistics, machine learning and signal processing minimize a smooth loss plus a nonsmooth ℓ1-type regularizer: the lasso, basis pursuit, least absolute deviations, Huber fitting, the group lasso, and ℓ1-penalized maximum likelihood for Gaussian graphical models. Chapter 6 of Boyd, Parikh, Chu, Peleato and Eckstein, Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 3(1), 2011), shows that the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) splits each of these problems into a step that touches only the loss and a step that touches only the regularizer, and that each step has a closed form. The practical value of ADMM on these problems rests entirely on those closed forms: an iteration is one cached linear solve, one projection, or one thresholding.

The capstone is sparse inverse covariance selection (§6.5), the ℓ1-penalized Gaussian maximum-likelihood problem of Banerjee, El Ghaoui and d'Aspremont (2008), also solved by the graphical lasso of Friedman, Hastie and Tibshirani (2008). Its ADMM X-update minimizes a log-determinant objective over positive definite matrices, and the book shows that it is solved exactly by one symmetric eigenvalue decomposition.

Setting

All vectors are real and ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​ is the Euclidean norm. For κ∈R\kappa\in\mathbb Rκ∈R the soft thresholding operator is Sκ(a)=a−κS_\kappa(a)=a-\kappaSκ​(a)=a−κ if a>κa>\kappaa>κ, 000 if ∣a∣≤κ|a|\le\kappa∣a∣≤κ, and a+κa+\kappaa+κ if a<−κa<-\kappaa<−κ, applied componentwise to vectors and entrywise to matrices. The vector soft thresholding operator on Rm\mathbb R^mRm is Sκ(a)=(1−κ/∥a∥2)+a\mathcal S_\kappa(a)=(1-\kappa/\|a\|_2)_+aSκ​(a)=(1−κ/∥a∥2​)+​a, with Sκ(0)=0\mathcal S_\kappa(0)=0Sκ​(0)=0. The Huber penalty is ghub(a)=a2/2g^{\mathrm{hub}}(a)=a^2/2ghub(a)=a2/2 for ∣a∣≤1|a|\le1∣a∣≤1 and ∣a∣−1/2|a|-1/2∣a∣−1/2 for ∣a∣>1|a|>1∣a∣>1, summed over components for vectors.

In scaled-form ADMM for minimizing f(x)+g(z)f(x)+g(z)f(x)+g(z) subject to Ax+Bz=cAx+Bz=cAx+Bz=c, with penalty ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 and scaled dual variable uuu, the updates are

xk+1=argmin⁡x(f(x)+ρ2∥Ax+Bzk−c+uk∥22),zk+1=argmin⁡z(g(z)+ρ2∥Axk+1+Bz−c+uk∥22),x^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_x\bigl(f(x)+\tfrac\rho2\|Ax+Bz^k-c+u^k\|_2^2\bigr),\quad z^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_z\bigl(g(z)+\tfrac\rho2\|Ax^{k+1}+Bz-c+u^k\|_2^2\bigr),xk+1=xargmin​(f(x)+2ρ​∥Ax+Bzk−c+uk∥22​),zk+1=zargmin​(g(z)+2ρ​∥Axk+1+Bz−c+uk∥22​),

followed by uk+1=uk+Axk+1+Bzk+1−cu^{k+1}=u^k+Ax^{k+1}+Bz^{k+1}-cuk+1=uk+Axk+1+Bzk+1−c. "The update is given by formula FFF" means FFF is the unique minimizer of the corresponding subproblem.

For sparse inverse covariance selection, S∈Rn×nS\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}S∈Rn×n is symmetric (the empirical covariance), λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is the regularization weight, ∥M∥F2=∑ijMij2\|M\|_F^2=\sum_{ij}M_{ij}^2∥M∥F2​=∑ij​Mij2​, ∥M∥1=∑ij∣Mij∣\|M\|_1=\sum_{ij}|M_{ij}|∥M∥1​=∑ij​∣Mij​∣, and S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​ is the set of symmetric positive definite matrices, the domain of log⁡det⁡\log\detlogdet. ADMM alternates

Xk+1=argmin⁡X∈S++n(Tr⁡(SX)−log⁡det⁡X+ρ2∥X−Zk+Uk∥F2),Zk+1=argmin⁡Z(λ∥Z∥1+ρ2∥Xk+1−Z+Uk∥F2),X^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_{X\in\mathbb S^n_{++}}\Bigl(\operatorname{Tr}(SX)-\log\det X+\tfrac\rho2\|X-Z^k+U^k\|_F^2\Bigr),\qquad Z^{k+1}=\operatorname*{argmin}_Z\Bigl(\lambda\|Z\|_1+\tfrac\rho2\|X^{k+1}-Z+U^k\|_F^2\Bigr),Xk+1=X∈S++n​argmin​(Tr(SX)−logdetX+2ρ​∥X−Zk+Uk∥F2​),Zk+1=Zargmin​(λ∥Z∥1​+2ρ​∥Xk+1−Z+Uk∥F2​),

and Uk+1=Uk+Xk+1−Zk+1U^{k+1}=U^k+X^{k+1}-Z^{k+1}Uk+1=Uk+Xk+1−Zk+1.

Formalization targets

Goal: the X-update in closed form (§6.5, p. 47)

Let SSS and Z−UZ-UZ−U be symmetric, ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, and ρ(Z−U)−S=Q diag(μ1,…,μn) QT\rho(Z-U)-S=Q\,\mathrm{diag}(\mu_1,\dots,\mu_n)\,Q^Tρ(Z−U)−S=Qdiag(μ1​,…,μn​)QT with QTQ=QQT=IQ^TQ=QQ^T=IQTQ=QQT=I. Then

X=Q diag(μi+μi2+4ρ2ρ)QTX=Q\,\mathrm{diag}\Bigl(\frac{\mu_i+\sqrt{\mu_i^2+4\rho}}{2\rho}\Bigr)Q^TX=Qdiag(2ρμi​+μi2​+4ρ​​)QT

is positive definite and is the unique minimizer of Tr⁡(SX′)−log⁡det⁡X′+ρ2∥X′−Z+U∥F2\operatorname{Tr}(SX')-\log\det X'+\frac\rho2\|X'-Z+U\|_F^2Tr(SX′)−logdetX′+2ρ​∥X′−Z+U∥F2​ over X′∈S++nX'\in\mathbb S^n_{++}X′∈S++n​.

Milestones

  1. Scalar root (p. 47): for ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, t=(μ+μ2+4ρ)/(2ρ)t=(\mu+\sqrt{\mu^2+4\rho})/(2\rho)t=(μ+μ2+4ρ​)/(2ρ) is positive and ρt−1/t=μ\rho t-1/t=\muρt−1/t=μ.
  2. Equation (6.5) (p. 47): the matrix XXX above is positive definite and ρX−X−1=ρ(Z−U)−S\rho X-X^{-1}=\rho(Z-U)-SρX−X−1=ρ(Z−U)−S.
  3. First-order condition (p. 47): a positive definite XXX minimizes the X-objective over S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​ if and only if S−X−1+ρ(X−Z+U)=0S-X^{-1}+\rho(X-Z+U)=0S−X−1+ρ(X−Z+U)=0.
  4. Z-update (p. 47): Zij=Sλ/ρ(Xij+Uij)Z_{ij}=S_{\lambda/\rho}(X_{ij}+U_{ij})Zij​=Sλ/ρ​(Xij​+Uij​) is the unique minimizer of λ∥Z∥1+ρ2∥X−Z+U∥F2\lambda\|Z\|_1+\frac\rho2\|X-Z+U\|_F^2λ∥Z∥1​+2ρ​∥X−Z+U∥F2​.
  5. Huber z-update (§6.1.1, p. 40): with v=Ax−b+uv=Ax-b+uv=Ax−b+u, z=ρ1+ρv+11+ρS1+1/ρ(v)z=\frac{\rho}{1+\rho}v+\frac1{1+\rho}S_{1+1/\rho}(v)z=1+ρρ​v+1+ρ1​S1+1/ρ​(v) minimizes ghub(z)+ρ2∥Ax−z−b+u∥22g^{\mathrm{hub}}(z)+\frac\rho2\|Ax-z-b+u\|_2^2ghub(z)+2ρ​∥Ax−z−b+u∥22​.
  6. Basis pursuit (§6.2, p. 41): if AATAA^TAAT is invertible, (I−AT(AAT)−1A)(z−u)+AT(AAT)−1b(I-A^T(AA^T)^{-1}A)(z-u)+A^T(AA^T)^{-1}b(I−AT(AAT)−1A)(z−u)+AT(AAT)−1b is the projection of z−uz-uz−u onto {x∣Ax=b}\{x\mid Ax=b\}{x∣Ax=b}.
  7. Lasso (§6.4, p. 43): (ATA+ρI)−1(ATb+ρ(z−u))(A^TA+\rho I)^{-1}(A^Tb+\rho(z-u))(ATA+ρI)−1(ATb+ρ(z−u)) minimizes 12∥Ax−b∥22+ρ2∥x−z+u∥22\frac12\|Ax-b\|_2^2+\frac\rho2\|x-z+u\|_2^221​∥Ax−b∥22​+2ρ​∥x−z+u∥22​, and Sλ/ρ(x+u)S_{\lambda/\rho}(x+u)Sλ/ρ​(x+u) minimizes λ∥z∥1+ρ2∥x−z+u∥22\lambda\|z\|_1+\frac\rho2\|x-z+u\|_2^2λ∥z∥1​+2ρ​∥x−z+u∥22​.
  8. Group lasso (§6.4.2, p. 45): blockwise Sλ/ρ(xi+ui)\mathcal S_{\lambda/\rho}(x_i+u_i)Sλ/ρ​(xi​+ui​) minimizes λ∑i∥zi∥2+ρ2∑i∥xi−zi+ui∥22\lambda\sum_i\|z_i\|_2+\frac\rho2\sum_i\|x_i-z_i+u_i\|_2^2λ∑i​∥zi​∥2​+2ρ​∑i​∥xi​−zi​+ui​∥22​.

Significance

The closed forms are what make ADMM competitive on these problems. For the lasso the x-update is a ridge regression whose factorization is computed once; for basis pursuit it is a cached projection; the ℓ1 step is a componentwise threshold. For covariance selection the X-update costs one eigenvalue decomposition, and the book (p. 46) cites Scheinberg, Ma and Goldfarb (2010) as showing that ADMM outperforms state-of-the-art methods on this problem. The goal also yields that Xk+1X^{k+1}Xk+1 is always positive definite, so the iterates remain in the domain of log⁡det⁡\log\detlogdet without a line search.

All statements here are classical and their proofs are elementary convex analysis and linear algebra. A search of the platform found no machine-checked version of any of them. Formalizing them produces verified proximity operators (soft thresholding, vector soft thresholding, Huber, projection onto an affine set) and a verified matrix-function argument for log⁡det⁡\log\detlogdet that later missions on ADMM, proximal methods and Gaussian graphical models can import.

Difficulty

The vector updates reduce to separable one-dimensional problems or to a normal equation, and the difficulty there is bookkeeping: uniqueness, the case a=0a=0a=0 of vector soft thresholding, and the three regimes of the Huber prox.

The goal is harder. The book's argument says that XXX satisfies the gradient equation "and thus minimizes the X-minimization objective". Checking the equation is algebra; the claim to be proved is minimality over the open cone S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​, which needs the convexity (indeed strict convexity, for uniqueness) of −log⁡det⁡-\log\det−logdet on positive definite matrices and the identification of its gradient with −X−1-X^{-1}−X−1 along symmetric directions. Mathlib has determinants and positive definiteness; a usable convexity statement for log⁡det⁡\log\detlogdet on S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​ is not among the platform's published results. Showing that XXX satisfies (6.5) alone does not establish the goal.

Formalization scope

  • Carriers. Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), matrices Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ acting by Matrix.toEuclideanLin. The Frobenius norm and the entrywise ℓ1 norm are written as explicit sums, not through Mathlib's matrix norm instances. The vector ℓ1 norm is the platform definition HighDimStat.SparseLinear.l1Norm.
  • Updates as unique minimizers. Each update is stated as: the book's formula is the unique minimizer of the subproblem (IsUniqueMinimizerOn). Iterates are not defined; the subproblem's data (zkz^kzk, uku^kuk, xk+1x^{k+1}xk+1) are arbitrary.
  • Domain of log det. The X-objective is minimized over Matrix.PosDef only. Singular or indefinite matrices are never competitors, so Real.log of a nonpositive determinant plays no role.
  • Explicit hypotheses. SSS and Z−UZ-UZ−U are assumed symmetric in the goal and the first-order condition; SSS need not be positive semidefinite. ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 everywhere. Basis pursuit assumes det⁡(AAT)≠0\det(AA^T)\ne0det(AAT)=0, which the book uses without stating. The book's λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is relaxed to λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0 in the thresholding statements, which contain the book's case.
  • Eigendecomposition. The goal holds for every orthogonal QQQ and real μ\muμ with ρ(Z−U)−S=Q diag(μ)QT\rho(Z-U)-S=Q\,\mathrm{diag}(\mu)Q^Tρ(Z−U)−S=Qdiag(μ)QT, not for one decomposition chosen by Mathlib.
  • Names. The book uses λ\lambdaλ for both the regularization weight and the eigenvalues; Lean calls them lam and μ.
  • Typo. The book prints uku^kuk in the group-lasso block update; the block uiku_i^kuik​ is stated.
  • Ruled out. A goal that only asserts that XXX satisfies (6.5), or that minimizes over a set extended by Real.log of nonpositive determinants, is not the book's claim; the goal states unique minimality over S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​.
  • Not stated. Least absolute deviations and the generalized lasso updates (same pattern as milestones 5 and 7), the overlapping group lasso, and the two-step termination claim for Huber fitting on p. 40 (whose formula xls=(ATA)−1bx^{\mathrm{ls}}=(A^TA)^{-1}bxls=(ATA)−1b is misprinted).

Contributions welcome: convexity and strict convexity of −log⁡det⁡-\log\det−logdet on S++n\mathbb S^n_{++}S++n​ and its derivative; a general "prox of a separable function is componentwise" lemma; and the projection onto an affine set.

Selected references

  • S. Boyd, N. Parikh, E. Chu, B. Peleato, J. Eckstein, Distributed Optimization and Statistical Learning via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 3(1), 2011, pp. 1–122. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000016
  • O. Banerjee, L. El Ghaoui, A. d'Aspremont, Model Selection Through Sparse Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Multivariate Gaussian or Binary Data, Journal of Machine Learning Research 9, 2008, pp. 485–516. https://jmlr.org/papers/v9/banerjee08a.html
  • J. Friedman, T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, Sparse Inverse Covariance Estimation with the Graphical Lasso, Biostatistics 9(3), 2008, pp. 432–441. https://doi.org/10.1093/biostatistics/kxm045
  • K. Scheinberg, S. Ma, D. Goldfarb, Sparse Inverse Covariance Selection via Alternating Linearization Methods, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 23, 2010 (reference [148] of the book).
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression Shrinkage and Selection via the Lasso, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 58(1), 1996, pp. 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • M. Yuan, Y. Lin, Model Selection and Estimation in Regression with Grouped Variables, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 68(1), 2006, pp. 49–67. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00532.x
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Residual Life Time at Great Age 4: α₁ ≤ tF′(t)/(1 − F(t)) ≤ α₂ for t ≥ t₀ Sandwiches P{(X − t)/t ≤ x | X > t} Between Γ_{α₁}(x) and Γ_{α₂}(x)Research Paper

Motivation

The residual life time of a lifetime XXX at age ttt is the remaining life X−tX - tX−t given survival past ttt. Its distribution at great age is a basic object in reliability, insurance and the statistics of extremes: excess-of-loss reinsurance prices the part of a claim above a retention level, and peaks-over-threshold methods fit a model to the observations exceeding a high level. Balkema and de Haan (Residual Life Time at Great Age, Ann. Probab. 2 (1974), 792–804, doi:10.1214/aop/1176996548) determined every possible limit law of the suitably normed residual life time as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ and the domains of attraction of these laws; Pickands (1975) obtained the continuous part of the same picture, which is the probabilistic basis of the generalized Pareto approximation used in practice.

Limit theorems describe the behaviour only as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞. Section 4 of the paper gives approximation results for finite ttt. In extreme-value theory, von Mises (1936) gave a sufficient condition for attraction to the Fréchet law Φα\Phi_\alphaΦα​: tF′(t)/(1−F(t))→αtF'(t)/(1 - F(t)) \to \alphatF′(t)/(1−F(t))→α. Theorem 6 of the paper is a non-asymptotic, two-sided counterpart for the residual life time: two-sided bounds on the scaled hazard rate give two-sided bounds on the residual life distribution at every age past a threshold. This mission formalizes Theorem 6 (p. 801).

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ and distribution function F(x)=P{X≤x}F(x) = P\{X \le x\}F(x)=P{X≤x}. For an age ttt with P{X>t}>0P\{X > t\} > 0P{X>t}>0, the residual life distribution function is

Ft(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,t+x])μ((t,∞)),x∈R,F_t(x) = P\{X - t \le x \mid X > t\} = \frac{\mu((t, t + x])}{\mu((t, \infty))}, \qquad x \in \mathbb R,Ft​(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,∞))μ((t,t+x])​,x∈R,

which is 000 for x<0x < 0x<0. For t>0t > 0t>0 the residual life scaled by the age has distribution function P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t}=Ft(xt)P\{(X - t)/t \le x \mid X > t\} = F_t(xt)P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t}=Ft​(xt).

For α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the Pareto-type law Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is

Γα(x)=1−(1+x)−α(x≥0),Γα(x)=0(x<0).\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 1 - (1 + x)^{-\alpha} \quad (x \ge 0), \qquad \Gamma_\alpha(x) = 0 \quad (x < 0).Γα​(x)=1−(1+x)−α(x≥0),Γα​(x)=0(x<0).

It is the law of Y−1Y - 1Y−1 when P{Y>y}=y−αP\{Y > y\} = y^{-\alpha}P{Y>y}=y−α for y≥1y \ge 1y≥1. FFF has a positive density F′F'F′ for t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ if FFF is differentiable at every t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ with derivative F′(t)>0F'(t) > 0F′(t)>0. The quantity F′(t)/(1−F(t))F'(t)/(1 - F(t))F′(t)/(1−F(t)) is the hazard rate of XXX at ttt, and tF′(t)/(1−F(t))tF'(t)/(1 - F(t))tF′(t)/(1−F(t)) is the hazard rate scaled by the age.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 801)

Let FFF have a positive density F′F'F′ for t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​, and let α1,α2>0\alpha_1, \alpha_2 > 0α1​,α2​>0 satisfy α1≤tF′(t)/(1−F(t))≤α2\alpha_1 \le tF'(t)/(1 - F(t)) \le \alpha_2α1​≤tF′(t)/(1−F(t))≤α2​ for t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​. Then for all t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ and all real xxx,

Γα1(x)  ≤  P{X−tt≤x  ∣  X>t}  ≤  Γα2(x).\Gamma_{\alpha_1}(x) \;\le\; P\Big\{\frac{X - t}{t} \le x \;\Big|\; X > t\Big\} \;\le\; \Gamma_{\alpha_2}(x).Γα1​​(x)≤P{tX−t​≤x​X>t}≤Γα2​​(x).

The smaller constant gives the lower bound: a smaller scaled hazard rate means a heavier tail and hence a larger chance that the remaining life is long. For a Pareto tail 1−F(t)=Ct−α1 - F(t) = Ct^{-\alpha}1−F(t)=Ct−α one may take α1=α2=α\alpha_1 = \alpha_2 = \alphaα1​=α2​=α, and both inequalities are equalities.

Milestone: the integrated hazard bounds (proof of Theorem 6, p. 801)

For t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ and x>0x > 0x>0,

α1∫t(1+x)tduu≤∫t(1+x)tF′(u)1−F(u) du≤α2∫t(1+x)tduu.\alpha_1 \int_t^{(1+x)t} \frac{du}{u} \le \int_t^{(1+x)t} \frac{F'(u)}{1 - F(u)}\,du \le \alpha_2 \int_t^{(1+x)t} \frac{du}{u}.α1​∫t(1+x)t​udu​≤∫t(1+x)t​1−F(u)F′(u)​du≤α2​∫t(1+x)t​udu​.

Significance

The theorem turns a pointwise condition on the hazard rate, which can be checked on a density, into a bound on the whole conditional distribution of the residual life, valid at every age t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ rather than only in the limit. If moreover tF′(t)/(1−F(t))→αtF'(t)/(1 - F(t)) \to \alphatF′(t)/(1−F(t))→α, then α1,α2\alpha_1, \alpha_2α1​,α2​ can be taken arbitrarily close to α\alphaα for large t0t_0t0​, which recovers the convergence P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t}→Γα(x)P\{(X - t)/t \le x \mid X > t\} \to \Gamma_\alpha(x)P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t}→Γα​(x) with an explicit error at finite ages. Such bounds are what a practitioner fitting a Pareto tail above a threshold needs to quantify the approximation.

The result is classical and its proof is short; it is not open. As far as is known, no machine-checked version exists, and Mathlib has no theory of residual life distributions or of the limit laws of Balkema and de Haan. A formal proof would provide reusable pieces: the identity between the integrated hazard rate and −log⁡(1−F)-\log(1 - F)−log(1−F) for a distribution function with a density, and the comparison of a residual life distribution with a Pareto law. The other missions of this series formalize the paper's limit theorems, for which this mission's objects (the residual life distribution and Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​) are shared.

Difficulty

The mathematics is elementary; the work lies in the regularity bookkeeping that the printed proof leaves implicit. The density is only assumed to exist pointwise, so the fundamental theorem of calculus must be applied to −log⁡(1−F)-\log(1 - F)−log(1−F) with a derivative that is not assumed continuous, and its integrability on [t,(1+x)t][t, (1+x)t][t,(1+x)t] has to come from the hazard bounds themselves. That 1−F1 - F1−F stays positive, that t0>0t_0 > 0t0​>0, and that the case x≤0x \le 0x≤0 is trivial all have to be derived from the hypotheses rather than assumed. Finally, the conditional probability must be identified with 1−R((1+x)t)/R(t)1 - R((1+x)t)/R(t)1−R((1+x)t)/R(t), where R=1−FR = 1 - FR=1−F, through the measure of intervals.

Formalization scope

The law of XXX is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR, and FFF is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf μ. The probability P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t}P\{(X - t)/t \le x \mid X > t\}P{(X−t)/t≤x∣X>t} is residualLife μ t (x * t) =μ((t,t+xt])/μ((t,∞))= \mu((t, t + xt])/\mu((t, \infty))=μ((t,t+xt])/μ((t,∞)). Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is a real function defined by cases, with Real.rpow for the power. The density is an explicit function fff with FFF having derivative f(t)>0f(t) > 0f(t)>0 at every t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​, the derivative taken within [t0,∞)[t_0, \infty)[t0​,∞). This is a right derivative at t0t_0t0​ and the ordinary derivative for t>t0t > t_0t>t0​. It is the weakest reading of "positive density F′F'F′ for t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​", and it admits the exact Pareto law with t0=1t_0 = 1t0​=1, whose distribution function has no two-sided derivative at 111. The bounds are stated for t⋅f(t)/(1−F(t))t \cdot f(t)/(1 - F(t))t⋅f(t)/(1−F(t)) with Lean's real division.

No hypothesis is added to the printed theorem, and no printed slip was found. The conditions t0>0t_0 > 0t0​>0 and F(t)<1F(t) < 1F(t)<1 follow from the hypotheses: for t≤0t \le 0t≤0 the ratio is not ≥α1>0\ge \alpha_1 > 0≥α1​>0, and a positive derivative on [t0,∞)[t_0, \infty)[t0​,∞) makes FFF strictly increasing there. Lean's convention a/0=0a/0 = 0a/0=0 therefore never acts at the ages concerned. The conclusion is stated for all real xxx, as printed; for x≤0x \le 0x≤0 all three quantities are 000. The milestone does not assume the hazard rate integrable: it is bounded and measurable on [t,(1+x)t][t, (1+x)t][t,(1+x)t], and a non-integrable integrand would make the inequality false rather than trivially true. A formalization that dropped the density hypothesis, replaced F′F'F′ by deriv without differentiability, or let the bounds hold only on a set not containing every t≥t0t \ge t_0t≥t0​ would not be this theorem; all three are excluded by the statement.

A proof needs the fundamental theorem of calculus for derivatives within a half-line (in Mathlib), the identity ∫t(1+x)tdu/u=log⁡(1+x)\int_t^{(1+x)t} du/u = \log(1+x)∫t(1+x)t​du/u=log(1+x), and the chain rule for log⁡(1−F)\log(1 - F)log(1−F). Proofs of the milestone and the goal are welcome, as are sorry-free lemmas showing that Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is a distribution function and that the Pareto law satisfies the hypotheses with α1=α2\alpha_1 = \alpha_2α1​=α2​.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema, L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, The Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), no. 1, 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
  • R. von Mises, La distribution de la plus grande de n valeurs, Revue Mathématique de l'Union Interbalkanique 1 (1936), 141–160.
  • L. de Haan, A. Ferreira, Extreme Value Theory: An Introduction, Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-34471-3
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Operations ResearchOptimal TransportProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization Using the Wasserstein Metric: Performance Guarantees and Tractable Reformulations III: Asymptotic Consistency of Wasserstein Robust SolutionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many decisions in operations research and machine learning minimize an expected cost EP[h(x,ξ)]\mathbb E^{P}[h(x,\xi)]EP[h(x,ξ)] whose distribution PPP is unknown and is seen only through NNN independent samples. The sample-average approximation replaces PPP by the empirical distribution and is known to produce decisions with poor out-of-sample performance when NNN is small. Distributionally robust optimization instead minimizes the worst-case expected cost over a set of distributions that are plausible given the data. Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (arXiv:1505.05116v3, published in Mathematical Programming 171, 2018) take this set to be a ball in the Wasserstein metric around the empirical distribution, and show that such balls deliver both finite-sample certificates and asymptotic consistency. This mission formalizes the statistical half of that paper: Section 3 and Appendix A.

A data-driven method should, at a minimum, be consistent: as the sample grows, its optimal value and decisions should approach those of the true problem. For Wasserstein balls this requires a measure concentration inequality for empirical distributions in the Wasserstein metric, which was supplied by Fournier and Guillin (PTRF 2015). The paper combines that inequality with the Kantorovich–Rubinstein duality and the Borel–Cantelli lemma.

Setting

Let EEE be Rm\mathbb R^mRm with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra. A decision xxx ranges over a feasible set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn; the random vector ξ\xiξ has distribution PPP, supported on the uncertainty set Ξ⊆E\Xi\subseteq EΞ⊆E; the loss is h:Rn×E→Rh:\mathbb R^n\times E\to\mathbb Rh:Rn×E→R. The true problem (1) has optimal value

J⋆=inf⁡x∈XEP[h(x,ξ)].J^\star=\inf_{x\in X}\mathbb E^P[h(x,\xi)].J⋆=x∈Xinf​EP[h(x,ξ)].

The Wasserstein distance between distributions Q1,Q2Q_1,Q_2Q1​,Q2​ with finite first moment is

dW(Q1,Q2)=inf⁡{∫∥ξ1−ξ2∥ Π(dξ1,dξ2): Π a coupling of Q1 and Q2}.d_W(Q_1,Q_2)=\inf\Big\{\int\|\xi_1-\xi_2\|\,\Pi(d\xi_1,d\xi_2):\ \Pi\text{ a coupling of }Q_1\text{ and }Q_2\Big\}.dW​(Q1​,Q2​)=inf{∫∥ξ1​−ξ2​∥Π(dξ1​,dξ2​): Π a coupling of Q1​ and Q2​}.

Given samples ξ^1,…,ξ^N\hat\xi_1,\dots,\hat\xi_Nξ^​1​,…,ξ^​N​ drawn independently from PPP (joint law PNP^NPN, and P∞P^\inftyP∞ for the infinite sequence), the empirical distribution is P^N=1N∑i=1Nδξ^i\widehat P_N=\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^N\delta_{\hat\xi_i}PN​=N1​∑i=1N​δξ^​i​​, and the Wasserstein ball Bε(P^N)\mathbb B_\varepsilon(\widehat P_N)Bε​(PN​) is the set of distributions QQQ on Ξ\XiΞ with dW(P^N,Q)≤εd_W(\widehat P_N,Q)\le\varepsilondW​(PN​,Q)≤ε. The distributionally robust program (5) has optimal value

J^N=inf⁡x∈X sup⁡Q∈Bε(P^N)EQ[h(x,ξ)],\widehat J_N=\inf_{x\in X}\ \sup_{Q\in\mathbb B_\varepsilon(\widehat P_N)}\mathbb E^Q[h(x,\xi)],JN​=x∈Xinf​ Q∈Bε​(PN​)sup​EQ[h(x,ξ)],

and an optimizer of it is written x^N\widehat x_NxN​.

The light-tail condition (Assumption 3.3) asks for an exponent a>1a>1a>1 with A=EP[exp⁡(∥ξ∥a)]<∞A=\mathbb E^P[\exp(\|\xi\|^a)]<\inftyA=EP[exp(∥ξ∥a)]<∞. Under it, and for m≠2m\ne2m=2, Theorem 3.4 (Fournier–Guillin) gives constants c1,c2>0c_1,c_2>0c1​,c2​>0 with

PN{dW(P,P^N)≥ε}≤{c1e−c2Nεmax⁡{m,2},ε≤1,c1e−c2Nεa,ε>1,(7)P^N\{d_W(P,\widehat P_N)\ge\varepsilon\}\le\begin{cases}c_1e^{-c_2N\varepsilon^{\max\{m,2\}}},&\varepsilon\le1,\\ c_1e^{-c_2N\varepsilon^{a}},&\varepsilon>1,\end{cases}\tag{7}PN{dW​(P,PN​)≥ε}≤{c1​e−c2​Nεmax{m,2},c1​e−c2​Nεa,​ε≤1,ε>1,​(7)

for all N≥1N\ge1N≥1, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. Solving the right-hand side =β=\beta=β for ε\varepsilonε gives the radius

εN(β)=(log⁡(c1β−1)c2N)1/max⁡{m,2} if N≥log⁡(c1β−1)c2,(log⁡(c1β−1)c2N)1/a otherwise.(8)\varepsilon_N(\beta)=\Big(\frac{\log(c_1\beta^{-1})}{c_2N}\Big)^{1/\max\{m,2\}}\text{ if }N\ge\frac{\log(c_1\beta^{-1})}{c_2},\qquad\Big(\frac{\log(c_1\beta^{-1})}{c_2N}\Big)^{1/a}\text{ otherwise}.\tag{8}εN​(β)=(c2​Nlog(c1​β−1)​)1/max{m,2} if N≥c2​log(c1​β−1)​,(c2​Nlog(c1​β−1)​)1/a otherwise.(8)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.6 (asymptotic consistency)

Let βN∈(0,1)\beta_N\in(0,1)βN​∈(0,1) with ∑NβN<∞\sum_N\beta_N<\infty∑N​βN​<∞ and εN(βN)→0\varepsilon_N(\beta_N)\to0εN​(βN​)→0, and use the radius εN(βN)\varepsilon_N(\beta_N)εN​(βN​) in (5).

(i) If h(x,⋅)h(x,\cdot)h(x,⋅) is upper semicontinuous on Ξ\XiΞ and ∣h(x,ξ)∣≤L(1+∥ξ∥)|h(x,\xi)|\le L(1+\|\xi\|)∣h(x,ξ)∣≤L(1+∥ξ∥) on X×ΞX\times\XiX×Ξ, then P∞P^\inftyP∞-almost surely

J^N≥J⋆ for all large NandJ^N→J⋆.\widehat J_N\ge J^\star\ \text{for all large }N\quad\text{and}\quad\widehat J_N\to J^\star.JN​≥J⋆ for all large NandJN​→J⋆.

(ii) If moreover XXX is closed and h(⋅,ξ)h(\cdot,\xi)h(⋅,ξ) is lower semicontinuous on XXX, then P∞P^\inftyP∞-almost surely every accumulation point of (x^N)(\widehat x_N)(xN​) is an optimal solution of (1).

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.5 (finite sample guarantee). For fixed N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), with radius εN(β)\varepsilon_N(\beta)εN​(β),
PN{EP[h(x^N,ξ)]>J^N}≤β.P^N\big\{\mathbb E^P[h(\widehat x_N,\xi)]>\widehat J_N\big\}\le\beta.PN{EP[h(xN​,ξ)]>JN​}≤β.
  1. Lemma A.1. An upper semicontinuous hhh on Ξ\XiΞ with h(ξ)≤L(1+∥ξ∥)h(\xi)\le L(1+\|\xi\|)h(ξ)≤L(1+∥ξ∥) is the pointwise limit on Ξ\XiΞ of a non-increasing sequence of Lipschitz functions.
  2. Lemma 3.7 (convergence of distributions). Any data-dependent Q^N∈BεN(βN)(P^N)\widehat Q_N\in\mathbb B_{\varepsilon_N(\beta_N)}(\widehat P_N)Q​N​∈BεN​(βN​)​(PN​) satisfies
P∞{lim⁡N→∞dW(P,Q^N)=0}=1.P^\infty\Big\{\lim_{N\to\infty}d_W(P,\widehat Q_N)=0\Big\}=1.P∞{N→∞lim​dW​(P,Q​N​)=0}=1.

Theorem 3.2 (Kantorovich–Rubinstein duality, dW(Q1,Q2)=sup⁡{∫f dQ1−∫f dQ2: f 1-Lipschitz}d_W(Q_1,Q_2)=\sup\{\int f\,dQ_1-\int f\,dQ_2:\ f\ 1\text{-Lipschitz}\}dW​(Q1​,Q2​)=sup{∫fdQ1​−∫fdQ2​: f 1-Lipschitz}), which the proof of (i) uses, enters as a reference item: the open platform theorem WassersteinDRO.Duality.kantorovich_rubinstein, stated on the whole space for all Borel probability measures. It is not a milestone, because that statement is more general than the paper's version on M(Ξ)\mathcal M(\Xi)M(Ξ) (the two agree for distributions in M(Ξ)\mathcal M(\Xi)M(Ξ) by extending Lipschitz functions from Ξ\XiΞ to the whole space).

A companion item, Example 1 (1), records that upper semicontinuity cannot be dropped in (i): for Ξ=[0,1]\Xi=[0,1]Ξ=[0,1], P=δ0P=\delta_0P=δ0​ and h=1(0,1](ξ)h=\mathbb 1_{(0,1]}(\xi)h=1(0,1]​(ξ) one has J⋆=0J^\star=0J⋆=0 but J^N≥1\widehat J_N\ge1JN​≥1 for every radius ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0.

Significance

Theorem 3.5 makes the robust optimal value an upper confidence bound on the out-of-sample cost of the robust decision. Theorem 3.6 shows that this protection does not cost consistency: with radii shrinking at a rate governed by summable confidence levels, such as βN=e−N\beta_N=e^{-\sqrt N}βN​=e−N​, both the certificate and the decisions converge to their true counterparts. Together they are the statistical justification for the Wasserstein ambiguity sets that the rest of the paper reformulates as finite convex programs, and they are cited as the reference consistency results for Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization.

All results here are proved in the paper. None of them, nor the Fournier–Guillin inequality, is formalized on Prove2Me or in Mathlib to our knowledge. The mission adds machine-checked versions of the finite-sample and consistency statements, a monotone Lipschitz approximation lemma for semicontinuous functions with linear growth (useful wherever Lipschitz duality has to be extended to semicontinuous integrands), and a convergence lemma for measures in shrinking Wasserstein balls.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for (i) bounds the worst-case expectation by the true expectation plus a Lipschitz constant times the radius. That fails, because hhh is only upper semicontinuous in ξ\xiξ, not Lipschitz, and has no Lipschitz constant to multiply. The expectations of a merely semicontinuous loss must be controlled uniformly over every distribution in the ball, including data-dependent worst-case distributions, and the almost-sure convergence of the empirical distribution alone does not give this. Example 1 of the paper shows that each regularity hypothesis is needed. On the formal side, the Wasserstein distance is an infimum over couplings on a Polish space; even its triangle inequality (gluing of couplings) and the Kantorovich–Rubinstein duality are substantial.

Formalization scope

EEE is a finite-dimensional real normed space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra (BorelSpace), and mmm is its dimension; decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The definitions dWd_WdW​ (type p=1p=1p=1), P^N\widehat P_NPN​, Bε(P^N)\mathbb B_\varepsilon(\widehat P_N)Bε​(PN​), EQ\mathbb E^QEQ and the worst-case expectation are the published WassersteinDRO.Duality definitions. The optimal values J⋆J^\starJ⋆ and J^N\widehat J_NJN​ are extended reals. Standing conventions and pinned hypotheses:

  • "Supported on Ξ\XiΞ" is P(Ξc)=0P(\Xi^c)=0P(Ξc)=0; Ξ\XiΞ is neither closed nor convex in general. The samples lie in Ξ\XiΞ almost surely, and optimizers and ball selections are required only for samples in Ξ\XiΞ.
  • The constants c1,c2>0c_1,c_2>0c1​,c2​>0 enter as any constants for which (7) holds, which is how (8) is defined from Theorem 3.4. The theorem of Fournier and Guillin is not part of this mission, and m≠2m\ne2m=2 is assumed because (7) and (8) are printed only for m≠2m\ne2m=2.
  • The loss is real-valued. In Theorem 3.5 it is assumed PPP-integrable on XXX, because the worst-case expectation counts only distributions under which the loss is integrable. In Theorem 3.6 the linear growth bound makes this automatic.
  • Probabilities "at least 1−β1-\beta1−β" are stated as bounds on the outer measure of the failure event, and "P∞P^\inftyP∞-almost surely" as an almost-everywhere statement for the product measure on sequences.
  • The paper's "J^N↓J⋆\widehat J_N\downarrow J^\starJN​↓J⋆" is stated as eventual domination J^N≥J⋆\widehat J_N\ge J^\starJN​≥J⋆ plus convergence, which is what its proof establishes; monotonicity in NNN is not claimed.

A statement in which (7) could not hold for any constants would make the goal vacuous. The concentration inequality is satisfiable (for instance by a Dirac distribution with any constants), and εN(β)\varepsilon_N(\beta)εN​(β) is defined by the paper's formula, not chosen freely.

Welcome contributions: the triangle inequality and Kantorovich–Rubinstein duality for dWd_WdW​, the Borel–Cantelli step for product measures, Lemma A.1, and the Fatou argument of (ii).

Selected references

  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani and D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric: performance guarantees and tractable reformulations, Mathematical Programming 171 (2018); source version arXiv:1505.05116v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05116v3
  • N. Fournier and A. Guillin, On the rate of convergence in Wasserstein distance of the empirical measure, Probability Theory and Related Fields 162 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00440-014-0583-7
  • L. V. Kantorovich and G. S. Rubinstein, On a space of totally additive functions, Vestnik Leningrad. Univ. 13 (1958).
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta and N. Kallus, Robust sample average approximation, Mathematical Programming 171 (2018). https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.4445
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Estimation of Executive Compensation by Linear Programming I: Least Absolute Deviations under Ranking Constraints Equal a Linear ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm may know salary bounds and the ranking of positions without having a reliable sample of individual salaries suitable for least-squares estimation. Charnes, Cooper and Ferguson used that kind of partial information to estimate a salary formula from ratings assigned to job factors. Their 1955 paper gives a model in which weights respect the job hierarchy while the implied salaries approach specified salary levels as closely as possible. It then turns the sum of absolute deviations into a linear program that can be handled by the methods available for constrained optimization. The setting and transformation are in §§4–6 of the published paper.

The question here is a precise one: does the transformed program have the same optimal value and the same optimal salary weights as the original absolute-deviation problem? This matters because a linear-program solution should answer the compensation-estimation problem stated before the transformation, even though the transformed program has additional variables and a different feasible set. The mission also records the paper's seven-position numerical example, where the reported salary formula can be checked directly against the table of factor ratings.

Setting

There are nnn rated factors and L≥1L\ge1L≥1 job levels ordered from highest to lowest. The rating xikx_{ik}xik​ is the amount of factor iii required at level kkk, and aia_iai​ is the nonnegative weight assigned to that factor. The estimated salary at level kkk is

Sk(a)=∑i=1naixik.S_k(a)=\sum_{i=1}^{n}a_i x_{ik}.Sk​(a)=i=1∑n​ai​xik​.

The salary formula applied to a person's factor amounts yiy_iyi​ is s=∑iaiyis=\sum_i a_i y_is=∑i​ai​yi​. For the ranked positions, feasible weights satisfy the four parts of the paper's system (2): each ai≥0a_i\ge0ai​≥0; the top-level salary is at most the ceiling sMs_MsM​; successive salaries descend, Sk+1(a)≤Sk(a)S_{k+1}(a)\le S_k(a)Sk+1​(a)≤Sk​(a); and the bottom-level salary is at least the floor sms_msm​. These are one-sided ceiling and floor bounds. They do not force the fitted salaries to equal the bounds.

The firm specifies target salaries sks_ksk​ at a finite set KKK of levels, which includes the ceiling and floor levels in the examples and may include intermediate levels. The absolute-deviation objective of (3) is

D(a)=∑k∈K∣Sk(a)−sk∣.D(a)=\sum_{k\in K}|S_k(a)-s_k|.D(a)=k∈K∑​∣Sk​(a)−sk​∣.

The original problem minimizes DDD over the feasible weights. At a specified level, let wk=Sk(a)−skw_k=S_k(a)-s_kwk​=Sk​(a)−sk​. The split-variable program of (4)–(5) introduces uk,vk≥0u_k,v_k\ge0uk​,vk​≥0 with wk=uk−vkw_k=u_k-v_kwk​=uk​−vk​ and minimizes P(u,v)=∑k∈K(uk+vk)P(u,v)=\sum_{k\in K}(u_k+v_k)P(u,v)=∑k∈K​(uk​+vk​). The split variables are constrained only for levels in KKK. The salary constraints (2) continue to apply to aaa. This is the paper's transformed linear program, with a feasible set that contains many choices of (u,v)(u,v)(u,v) above the same weight vector Charnes, Cooper and Ferguson, §§4–5.

Formalization targets

Equivalence of the two programs

The main target is the paper's claim that the two problems have equal minimal values and that minimizers correspond §6, p. 143. In the formal statement, equal values are expressed by equality of attainable objective thresholds:

∀t∈R,[∃a feasible:D(a)≤t]⟺[∃(a,u,v) LP-feasible:P(u,v)≤t].\forall t\in\mathbb R,\qquad [\exists a\text{ feasible}:D(a)\le t] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad [\exists(a,u,v)\text{ LP-feasible}:P(u,v)\le t].∀t∈R,[∃a feasible:D(a)≤t]⟺[∃(a,u,v) LP-feasible:P(u,v)≤t].

The goal also says that aaa minimizes DDD exactly when the triple formed from aaa and the positive and negative parts of www minimizes PPP. Every LP minimizer projects to a minimizer of DDD. These clauses give the value and solution correspondence the authors use when they call the two problems equivalent.

Supporting claims and numerical result

Three milestones follow the paper's exposition. First, every feasible weight vector has a split-variable lift with the same objective. Second, every transformed feasible point projects to an original feasible weight vector with no larger original objective. Third, the minimal values agree §§5–6, pp. 141–143. Each is recorded under the unnumbered sentence from which it was extracted; the paper has no numbered lemmas.

Two companion statements record other claims: opposite coefficient columns cannot both occur among selected independent simplex columns, and the Table I data have the reported optimum. For the latter, targets are 16 at R1R_1R1​, 10 at R5R_5R5​, and 4 at R7R_7R7​, measured in thousands of dollars. Equation (7) assigns weights (4,0,0,16,0,4,0,28,0)/11(4,0,0,16,0,4,0,28,0)/11(4,0,0,16,0,4,0,28,0)/11, yielding the minimum deviation 14/1114/1114/11 §7, pp. 145–148. A further companion checks the redundant R2≤R1R_2\le R_1R2​≤R1​ ranking row.

Significance

The equivalence justifies using a linear-program output as an estimate for the earlier salary problem: the transformed objective reaches the same value, and its optimal weight vectors solve the original problem. The numerical claim supplies a fully specified instance with seven job levels and nine factors, including the exact fitted salaries. Without the correspondence, optimizing the enlarged variable set could give no assurance that its weights minimize the deviations the firm intended to measure.

The mathematical result was argued in the 1955 paper; this mission asks for a machine-checked formulation and proof of that known result. The statements compile as open Lean theorems, so compilation alone does not establish their truth. Closing them would add a reusable treatment of absolute-deviation objectives under finite linear inequalities and an exact certificate for the paper's worked example. The consistency claim in the appendix is a separate mission because it concerns perturbations of another linear program, not this transformation.

Difficulty

The split-variable program permits uku_kuk​ and vkv_kvk​ to be simultaneously positive even when their difference is fixed. Consequently, simply identifying the two feasible sets would misstate the transformation: one has extra degrees of freedom. A proof must relate their objective values and then account for optimal solutions on both sides. The numerical example has a separate difficulty. Substituting the reported weights verifies a feasible objective of 14/1114/1114/11, but does not by itself rule out another feasible weight vector with a smaller deviation. The global lower bound is part of the companion theorem.

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents factor and level vectors by functions on Fin n and Fin L, and sums explicitly over finite indices. Paper level 1 is Lean index 0; paper level LLL is the final Fin L index. The assumption L≥1L\ge1L≥1 is explicit because both the top and bottom level are named. No sign, monotonicity, or boundedness assumptions are imposed on the ratings beyond what the paper states. The weights are componentwise nonnegative. Intermediate target salaries enter the objectives through KKK but add no constraints to (2), matching the paper's treatment of R5R_5R5​.

A minimizer is a feasible point whose objective is no larger than that of every feasible point. The equality of minimal values uses the threshold formula above, so an empty feasible set cannot inherit a spurious real infimum. The transformed feasible set is exactly the split-variable system of (4)–(5); defining it as only the image of a chosen lift would make the principal comparison empty of content. The Table I constants are exact rational values in units of 1,0001{,}0001,000. The paper rounds some displayed salaries, while Lean records their exact fractions. The generic column-independence companion is stated for an arbitrary finite matrix, with the basis and zero nonbasic coordinates explicit.

The shared definition module provides the salary map, feasibility predicates, objectives, minimizers, and example data. A full development can contribute proofs of the three milestones, the main equivalence, the column claim, the numerical lower bound, and the redundant-row fact. The finite absolute-deviation and split-variable statements can also serve later formalizations with other linear constraints.

Selected references

  • A. Charnes, W. W. Cooper, and R. O. Ferguson, Optimal Estimation of Executive Compensation by Linear Programming, Management Science 1(2), 138–151, 1955. DOI 10.1287/mnsc.1.2.138.
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Kullback–Leibler Upper Confidence Bounds for Optimal Sequential Allocation II: Empirical KL-UCB Draws a Suboptimal Arm log(T)/K_inf(ν_a, μ*) + O((log T)^{4/5} log log T) TimesResearch Paper

Motivation

In a stochastic multi-armed bandit a player repeatedly chooses one of KKK arms and receives a random reward drawn from that arm's unknown distribution; the aim is to pull suboptimal arms as rarely as possible. Lai and Robbins (1985) and, for general models, Burnetas and Katehakis (1996) showed that any reasonable strategy must pull a suboptimal arm aaa at least (1+o(1))log⁡T/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)(1+o(1))\log T/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)(1+o(1))logT/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆) times in TTT rounds, where Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ is a minimal Kullback–Leibler divergence defined below. A strategy whose expected number of pulls matches this constant is asymptotically optimal.

For rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], classical index policies such as UCB (Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer, 2002) achieve O(log⁡T)O(\log T)O(logT) pulls but with a constant governed by the gap of the means, not by Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​. Cappé, Garivier, Maillard, Munos and Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3), 2013 (arXiv:1210.1136v4), introduce the KL-UCB family of index policies and prove finite-time bounds whose leading term is the Lai–Robbins/Burnetas–Katehakis constant. This mission formalizes their result for empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3, Theorem 2), which is asymptotically optimal in the nonparametric model of finitely supported distributions on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. A companion mission covers kl-UCB in one-parameter exponential families (Theorem 1).

Timeline: Lai and Robbins (1985), lower bound for parametric families; Burnetas and Katehakis (1996), lower bound and asymptotically optimal policies for general models; Honda and Takemura (2010, 2011), the DMED algorithm, asymptotically optimal for finitely supported and bounded rewards; Cappé et al. (2013), the first index policy with a non-asymptotic bound whose leading term is optimal in this model.

Setting

A bandit has K≥2K\ge2K≥2 arms with reward distributions ν1,…,νK\nu_1,\dots,\nu_Kν1​,…,νK​ in a known model F\mathcal FF: the set of probability distributions over [0,1][0,1][0,1] with finite support. Write E(ν)=∫x dν(x)\mathrm E(\nu)=\int x\,d\nu(x)E(ν)=∫xdν(x), μa=E(νa)\mu_a=\mathrm E(\nu_a)μa​=E(νa​) and μ⋆=max⁡aμa\mu^\star=\max_a\mu_aμ⋆=maxa​μa​; arm aaa is suboptimal if μa<μ⋆\mu_a<\mu^\starμa​<μ⋆. At each round t≥1t\ge1t≥1 the player picks an arm AtA_tAt​ based on past observations and observes a reward drawn from νAt\nu_{A_t}νAt​​. Na(T)=∑t=1TI{At=a}N_a(T)=\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb I\{A_t=a\}Na​(T)=∑t=1T​I{At​=a} is the number of pulls of arm aaa up to round TTT.

Equivalently, each arm has a reward stack Xa,1,Xa,2,…X_{a,1},X_{a,2},\dotsXa,1​,Xa,2​,… of i.i.d. draws from νa\nu_aνa​, all stacks independent, and the nnn-th pull of arm aaa returns Xa,nX_{a,n}Xa,n​. The empirical distribution of the first nnn rewards is ν^a,n=1n∑k=1nδXa,k\hat\nu_{a,n}=\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\delta_{X_{a,k}}ν^a,n​=n1​∑k=1n​δXa,k​​, and ν^a(t)=ν^a,Na(t)\hat\nu_a(t)=\hat\nu_{a,N_a(t)}ν^a​(t)=ν^a,Na​(t)​.

The minimal divergence is

Kinf⁡(ν,μ)=inf⁡{KL(ν,ν′):ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ}∈[0,+∞],\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)=\inf\bigl\{\mathrm{KL}(\nu,\nu'):\nu'\in\mathcal F,\ \mathrm E(\nu')>\mu\bigr\}\in[0,+\infty],Kinf​(ν,μ)=inf{KL(ν,ν′):ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ}∈[0,+∞],

the smallest Kullback–Leibler divergence from ν\nuν to a distribution of the model whose mean exceeds μ\muμ.

Empirical KL-UCB (Algorithm 3) pulls each arm once, then for t=K,K+1,…t=K,K+1,\dotst=K,K+1,… pulls an arm maximizing

Ua(t)=sup⁡{E(ν):ν∈M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1}), KL(ν^a(t),ν)≤f(t)Na(t)},U_a(t)=\sup\Bigl\{\mathrm E(\nu):\nu\in\mathfrak M_1\bigl(\mathrm{Supp}(\hat\nu_a(t))\cup\{1\}\bigr),\ \mathrm{KL}(\hat\nu_a(t),\nu)\le\frac{f(t)}{N_a(t)}\Bigr\},Ua​(t)=sup{E(ν):ν∈M1​(Supp(ν^a​(t))∪{1}), KL(ν^a​(t),ν)≤Na​(t)f(t)​},

where M1(A)\mathfrak M_1(A)M1​(A) is the set of probability distributions carried by AAA and f(t)=log⁡t+log⁡log⁡tf(t)=\log t+\log\log tf(t)=logt+loglogt. The added point 111 is essential: without it the index is the empirical-likelihood bound, which equals the empirical mean when every observation is 000.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 15–16)

Assume μa>0\mu_a>0μa​>0 for all arms and μ⋆<1\mu^\star<1μ⋆<1. There is a constant M(νa,μ⋆)>0M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)>0M(νa​,μ⋆)>0 depending only on νa\nu_aνa​ and μ⋆\mu^\starμ⋆ such that, for every suboptimal arm aaa and all T≥3T\ge3T≥3,

E[Na(T)]≤log⁡TKinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+36(μ⋆)4(log⁡T)4/5log⁡log⁡T+(72(μ⋆)4+2μ⋆(1−μ⋆)Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)2)(log⁡T)4/5+(1−μ⋆)2M(νa,μ⋆)2(μ⋆)2(log⁡T)2/5+log⁡log⁡TKinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+2μ⋆(1−μ⋆)Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)2+4.\begin{aligned}\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le{}&\frac{\log T}{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}+\frac{36}{(\mu^\star)^4}(\log T)^{4/5}\log\log T+\Bigl(\frac{72}{(\mu^\star)^4}+\frac{2\mu^\star}{(1-\mu^\star)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)^2}\Bigr)(\log T)^{4/5}\\&+\frac{(1-\mu^\star)^2M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}{2(\mu^\star)^2}(\log T)^{2/5}+\frac{\log\log T}{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)}+\frac{2\mu^\star}{(1-\mu^\star)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)^2}+4.\end{aligned}E[Na​(T)]≤​Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)logT​+(μ⋆)436​(logT)4/5loglogT+((μ⋆)472​+(1−μ⋆)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)22μ⋆​)(logT)4/5+2(μ⋆)2(1−μ⋆)2M(νa​,μ⋆)​(logT)2/5+Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)loglogT​+(1−μ⋆)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)22μ⋆​+4.​

The constants are the paper's. MMM is the one quantity the main text does not give; it is existentially quantified, before the bandit, so it may depend on nothing but (νa,μ⋆)(\nu_a,\mu^\star)(νa​,μ⋆).

Milestones

  1. (7), p. 9: the sets Cμ,γ={ν:∃ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ, KL(ν,ν′)≤γ}\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}=\{\nu:\exists\nu'\in\mathcal F,\ \mathrm E(\nu')>\mu,\ \mathrm{KL}(\nu,\nu')\le\gamma\}Cμ,γ​={ν:∃ν′∈F, E(ν′)>μ, KL(ν,ν′)≤γ} satisfy Cμ,γ⊆{ν:Kinf⁡(ν,μ)≤γ}\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}\subseteq\{\nu:\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)\le\gamma\}Cμ,γ​⊆{ν:Kinf​(ν,μ)≤γ}.
  2. (5), p. 9: the decomposition {At+1=a}⊆{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}∪{μ†<Ua(t), At+1=a}\{A_{t+1}=a\}\subseteq\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}\cup\{\mu^\dagger<U_a(t),\ A_{t+1}=a\}{At+1​=a}⊆{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}∪{μ†<Ua​(t), At+1​=a}.
  3. The display after (7), p. 9: E[Na(T)]≤1+∑t=KT−1P{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+∑t=KT−1P{ν^a,Na(t)∈Cμ†,f(t)/Na(t), At+1=a}\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le1+\sum_{t=K}^{T-1}\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}+\sum_{t=K}^{T-1}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,N_a(t)}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(t)/N_a(t)},\ A_{t+1}=a\}E[Na​(T)]≤1+∑t=KT−1​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}+∑t=KT−1​P{ν^a,Na​(t)​∈Cμ†,f(t)/Na​(t)​, At+1​=a}.
  4. (8), p. 10: the second sum is at most ∑n=1T−KP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}\sum_{n=1}^{T-K}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}∑n=1T−K​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}.
  5. (9)–(10), p. 10: E[Na(T)]≤f(T)/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)+∑n>n0P{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}+∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}+2\mathbb E[N_a(T)]\le f(T)/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)+\sum_{n>n_0}\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}+\sum_t\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}+2E[Na​(T)]≤f(T)/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)+∑n>n0​​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}+∑t​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}+2 with n0=⌈f(T)/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)⌉n_0=\lceil f(T)/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)\rceiln0​=⌈f(T)/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆)⌉.
  6. p. 15: the supremum defining Ua(t)U_a(t)Ua​(t) over F\mathcal FF equals the supremum over M1(Supp(ν^a(t))∪{1})\mathfrak M_1(\mathrm{Supp}(\hat\nu_a(t))\cup\{1\})M1​(Supp(ν^a​(t))∪{1}).
  7. Implicit in Theorem 2: 0<Kinf⁡(ν,μ)<∞0<\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu,\mu)<\infty0<Kinf​(ν,μ)<∞ for ν∈F\nu\in\mathcal Fν∈F and E(ν)<μ<1\mathrm E(\nu)<\mu<1E(ν)<μ<1.
  8. Proposition 1, p. 20: for nnn i.i.d. observations from any ν0\nu_0ν0​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] with E(ν0)∈(0,1)\mathrm E(\nu_0)\in(0,1)E(ν0​)∈(0,1) and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0,
P{U(ν^n,ε)≤E(ν0)}≤P{Kinf⁡(ν^n,E(ν0))≥ε}≤e(n+2)exp⁡(−nε).\mathbb P\{U(\hat\nu_n,\varepsilon)\le\mathrm E(\nu_0)\}\le\mathbb P\{\mathcal K_{\inf}(\hat\nu_n,\mathrm E(\nu_0))\ge\varepsilon\}\le e(n+2)\exp(-n\varepsilon).P{U(ν^n​,ε)≤E(ν0​)}≤P{Kinf​(ν^n​,E(ν0​))≥ε}≤e(n+2)exp(−nε).

Significance

Theorem 2 gives a finite-time bound whose leading term, log⁡T/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)\log T/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)logT/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆), equals the Burnetas–Katehakis lower bound for the model F\mathcal FF. Hence empirical KL-UCB is asymptotically optimal among all strategies for finitely supported rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], and the regret ∑a(μ⋆−μa)E[Na(T)]\sum_a(\mu^\star-\mu_a)\mathbb E[N_a(T)]∑a​(μ⋆−μa​)E[Na​(T)] inherits the optimal constant. Since Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆) is at least the Bernoulli divergence of the means, and usually larger, the bound improves on kl-UCB and UCB for the same rewards. Proposition 1 is a non-asymptotic coverage bound for the empirical-likelihood upper confidence bound with the point 111 added, valid for every law on [0,1][0,1][0,1], not only finitely supported ones.

The proofs of Theorem 2 and Proposition 1 are in the paper's supplemental article (Appendix B), not in the main text; no machine-checked proof of either exists. The mission produces formal statements of the theorem and of the proof skeleton (5)–(10) that the paper shares with Theorem 1, and of the two facts about Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ that the bound needs. A formal proof would supply an explicit M(νa,μ⋆)M(\nu_a,\mu^\star)M(νa​,μ⋆), which the paper defines only inside the supplement.

Difficulty

The skeleton (5)–(10) is elementary bookkeeping; the difficulty lies in the two sums it leaves, both of which must be shown to be o(log⁡T)o(\log T)o(logT) with explicit constants. The second, ∑nP{ν^a,n∈Cμ†,f(T)/n}\sum_n\mathbb P\{\hat\nu_{a,n}\in\mathcal C_{\mu^\dagger,f(T)/n}\}∑n​P{ν^a,n​∈Cμ†,f(T)/n​}, needs a deviation estimate for the empirical Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ of a suboptimal arm that is precise enough to keep the leading constant 1/Kinf⁡(νa,μ⋆)1/\mathcal K_{\inf}(\nu_a,\mu^\star)1/Kinf​(νa​,μ⋆): a bound that only controls the deviation of the empirical mean loses it, since Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ depends on the whole distribution. The first, ∑tP{μ†≥Ua⋆(t)}\sum_t\mathbb P\{\mu^\dagger\ge U_{a^\star}(t)\}∑t​P{μ†≥Ua⋆​(t)}, concerns the optimal arm after a random number of pulls Na⋆(t)N_{a^\star}(t)Na⋆​(t), which the algorithm itself determines, so fixed-sample bounds such as Proposition 1 do not apply directly. Both need regularity of Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ as a function of a distribution in an infinite-dimensional model, where none of the closed forms of the exponential-family case is available.

Formalization scope

Arms are Fin K, and arm aaa of the paper is index a−1a-1a−1. The bandit is the platform's stack-of-rewards model RegretBandits.Stochastic.IsStochasticBandit: Xa,kX_{a,k}Xa,k​ (indexed from 000) are independent, identically distributed within each arm, with mean μa\mu_aμa​. Pull counts and μ⋆\mu^\starμ⋆ are the platform's pullCount and bestMean. Added to the page, and disclosed in each statement: every reward lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1] pathwise (a representation of "νa\nu_aνa​ is carried by [0,1][0,1][0,1]"), every arm choice is measurable, and in the goal the strategy is non-anticipating (At+1A_{t+1}At+1​ is measurable with respect to the arms and rewards of rounds 1,…,t1,\dots,t1,…,t). A run of Algorithm 3 is a pathwise predicate: rounds 1,…,K1,\dots,K1,…,K pull distinct arms, and every later round pulls a maximizer of U⋅(t)U_\cdot(t)U⋅​(t), with ties broken by any rule. KL is Mathlib's InformationTheory.klDiv in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞], with the empirical distribution as first argument. Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ is kept in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞] and converted to a real number only in the final bounds, where it is finite and positive. Probabilities of events whose measurability is not asserted are outer probabilities. The page's ∑n≥n0+1\sum_{n\ge n_0+1}∑n≥n0​+1​ in (10) is stated as the finite sum over n0<n≤T−Kn_0<n\le T-Kn0​<n≤T−K that (8) produces. The probability space of Theorem 2 lies in Type.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The index is a supremum over a set that is nonempty (it contains E(ν^a(t))\mathrm E(\hat\nu_a(t))E(ν^a​(t))) and bounded above, so it is never Lean's junk value. Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ and Cμ,γ\mathcal C_{\mu,\gamma}Cμ,γ​ range over F\mathcal FF, not over all measures. The run predicate has both the initialization and the argmax clause. MMM is quantified before the bandit and the horizon.

Reusable beyond this mission: Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ for F\mathcal FF, the empirical-likelihood bound UUU of (15), and Proposition 1, a concentration inequality for empirical Kinf⁡\mathcal K_{\inf}Kinf​ that applies to any bounded i.i.d. sample. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the skeleton (5)–(10) that also apply to the companion kl-UCB mission.

Selected references

  • O. Cappé, A. Garivier, O.-A. Maillard, R. Munos, G. Stoltz, Kullback–Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation, Ann. Statist. 41(3):1516–1541, 2013. arXiv:1210.1136v4, doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119; supplement doi:10.1214/13-AOS1119SUPP.
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Adv. Appl. Math. 6(1):4–22, 1985. doi:10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • A. N. Burnetas, M. N. Katehakis, Optimal adaptive policies for sequential allocation problems, Adv. Appl. Math. 17(2):122–142, 1996. doi:10.1006/aama.1996.0007
  • J. Honda, A. Takemura, An asymptotically optimal bandit algorithm for bounded support models, COLT 2010, 67–79.
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi, P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Mach. Learn. 47:235–256, 2002. doi:10.1023/A:1013689704352
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Machine LearningOptimal TransportOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning 2: ℓp-Regularized Logistic Regression and the Hinge-Loss SVM Are Wasserstein DRO under a Label-Preserving Transport CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Regularized logistic regression and the support vector machine (SVM) are two of the most widely used linear classifiers. Both are usually introduced as empirical risk minimization plus a norm penalty ∥β∥p\|\beta\|_p∥β∥p​ whose size is tuned by cross-validation, with the penalty justified heuristically as a guard against overfitting. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers a different reading: instead of minimizing the average loss on the training sample, minimize the worst average loss over all distributions close to the empirical one. Blanchet, Kang and Murthy (arXiv:1610.05627v4; J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019) show that, for a suitable notion of closeness based on optimal transport, the robust problem and the penalized problem coincide exactly. The penalty is then the price of robustness against perturbations of the predictors, and the regularization parameter becomes the radius of an uncertainty set, which the same paper later chooses by a statistical criterion (the robust Wasserstein profile).

Related earlier work: Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, Mohajerin Esfahani and Kuhn (NIPS 2015) studied Wasserstein-robust logistic regression with a metric that charges a finite price κ\kappaκ for flipping a label, and obtained regularized logistic regression only in the limit κ→∞\kappa \to \inftyκ→∞. The result formalized here is the exact statement at κ=∞\kappa = \inftyκ=∞, together with the analogous statement for the hinge loss.

Setting

Training data are pairs (X1,Y1),…,(Xn,Yn)(X_1,Y_1),\dots,(X_n,Y_n)(X1​,Y1​),…,(Xn​,Yn​) with predictors Xi∈RdX_i \in \mathbb R^dXi​∈Rd and labels Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. Their empirical distribution is Pn=1n∑i=1nδ(Xi,Yi)P_n = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \delta_{(X_i,Y_i)}Pn​=n1​∑i=1n​δ(Xi​,Yi​)​, a probability measure on Z=Rd×RZ = \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb RZ=Rd×R.

For a cost c:Z×Z→[0,∞]c : Z \times Z \to [0,\infty]c:Z×Z→[0,∞], the optimal transport cost between probability measures PPP and QQQ on ZZZ is

Dc(P,Q)=inf⁡{Eπ[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU=P, πW=Q}.D_c(P,Q) = \inf\big\{\mathbb E_\pi[c(U,W)] : \pi \text{ a probability measure on } Z\times Z,\ \pi_U = P,\ \pi_W = Q\big\}.Dc​(P,Q)=inf{Eπ​[c(U,W)]:π a probability measure on Z×Z, πU​=P, πW​=Q}.

The cost used here is the label-preserving cost: for q∈[1,∞]q \in [1,\infty]q∈[1,∞],

Nq((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q if y=v,+∞ otherwise.N_q\big((x,y),(u,v)\big) = \|x - u\|_q \text{ if } y = v, \qquad +\infty \text{ otherwise}.Nq​((x,y),(u,v))=∥x−u∥q​ if y=v,+∞ otherwise.

Every distribution PPP with DNq(P,Pn)<∞D_{N_q}(P,P_n) < \inftyDNq​​(P,Pn​)<∞ has the same label distribution as PnP_nPn​; only the predictors are perturbed. The exponent ppp is the conjugate of qqq, 1/p+1/q=11/p + 1/q = 11/p+1/q=1.

The losses are the log-exponential loss log⁡(1+e−yβTx)\log(1 + e^{-y\beta^T x})log(1+e−yβTx) and the hinge loss (1−yβTx)+(1 - y\beta^T x)^+(1−yβTx)+, for a coefficient vector β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd. The worst-case expected loss at radius δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 is sup⁡{EP[l]:DNq(P,Pn)≤δ}\sup\{\mathbb E_P[l] : D_{N_q}(P,P_n) \le \delta\}sup{EP​[l]:DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δ}, the supremum over probability measures PPP on ZZZ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 11)

For every δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 and every β∈Rd\beta \in \mathbb R^dβ∈Rd,

sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[log⁡(1+e−YβTX)]=1n∑i=1nlog⁡(1+e−YiβTXi)+δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[\log(1 + e^{-Y\beta^T X})\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \log(1 + e^{-Y_i\beta^T X_i}) + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[log(1+e−YβTX)]=n1​i=1∑n​log(1+e−Yi​βTXi​)+δ∥β∥p​, sup⁡P: DNq(P,Pn)≤δEP[(1−YβTX)+]=1n∑i=1n(1−YiβTXi)++δ∥β∥p,\sup_{P:\ D_{N_q}(P,P_n)\le\delta} \mathbb E_P\big[(1 - Y\beta^T X)^+\big] = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n (1 - Y_i\beta^T X_i)^+ + \delta\|\beta\|_p,P: DNq​​(P,Pn​)≤δsup​EP​[(1−YβTX)+]=n1​i=1∑n​(1−Yi​βTXi​)++δ∥β∥p​,

and consequently the two identities obtained by taking inf⁡β\inf_{\beta}infβ​ on both sides, which is how the paper prints the theorem.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 10): strong duality, sup⁡P:Dc(P,Pn)≤δEP[l]=min⁡γ≥0{γδ+1n∑iφγ(Xi,Yi)}\sup_{P: D_c(P,P_n)\le\delta}\mathbb E_P[l] = \min_{\gamma\ge0}\{\gamma\delta + \frac1n\sum_i\varphi_\gamma(X_i,Y_i)\}supP:Dc​(P,Pn​)≤δ​EP​[l]=minγ≥0​{γδ+n1​∑i​φγ​(Xi​,Yi​)} with φγ(z0)=sup⁡z{l(z)−γc(z,z0)}\varphi_\gamma(z_0) = \sup_z\{l(z) - \gamma c(z,z_0)\}φγ​(z0​)=supz​{l(z)−γc(z,z0​)}, for a lower semicontinuous cost vanishing on the diagonal, an upper semicontinuous loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  2. Logistic inner supremum (proof of Theorem 2, p. 30): sup⁡x{log⁡(1+e−y0βTx)−λ∥x−x0∥q}\sup_x\{\log(1+e^{-y_0\beta^T x}) - \lambda\|x - x_0\|_q\}supx​{log(1+e−y0​βTx)−λ∥x−x0​∥q​} equals the loss at x0x_0x0​ if ∥β∥p≤λ\|\beta\|_p \le \lambda∥β∥p​≤λ and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise.
  3. Logistic outer minimisation (p. 30): the infimum over λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 of δλ\delta\lambdaδλ plus the average of these suprema equals the regularized empirical loss.
  4. Hinge inner supremum (pp. 30–31) and 5. hinge outer minimisation (p. 31): the same two steps for the hinge loss.

Significance

The theorem identifies two standard estimators as exact solutions of a robust decision problem. Consequences: the penalty δ∥β∥p\delta\|\beta\|_pδ∥β∥p​ has a quantitative meaning (the adversary's transport budget), the regularization parameter can be chosen by the paper's robust Wasserstein profile instead of cross-validation, and the norm of the penalty is tied to the geometry of the perturbations (perturbations measured in ℓ∞\ell_\inftyℓ∞​ give an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ penalty). The same identity is the input of the paper's coverage bound (Proposition 6) for ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known. The formalization adds a precise statement of the objects involved (couplings with both marginals fixed, an infinite cost across labels, expectations of nonnegative losses with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]), a checked version of the duality step specialised to this cost, and the treatment of boundary cases (δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, β=0\beta = 0β=0, q∈{1,∞}q \in \{1,\infty\}q∈{1,∞}) that the paper does not discuss.

Difficulty

The identities are short once Proposition 1 is available, so the weight of the mission lies in two places. First, Proposition 1 itself is a strong duality theorem for optimal transport over all probability measures on Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, with a cost that takes the value +∞+\infty+∞ and an unbounded loss, and with attainment of the dual minimum; it is quoted from Blanchet and Murthy (Math. Oper. Res. 2019) and not proved in this paper. The weak-duality inequality is routine; the reverse inequality requires constructing near-optimal distributions from the dual, which needs measurable selection of near-maximizers and does not follow from finite-dimensional convex duality. Second, the inner suprema require an exact Hölder-attainment argument for the pair of conjugate norms ℓp\ell_pℓp​ and ℓq\ell_qℓq​, including q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞, and for the hinge loss a minimax exchange over α∈[0,1]\alpha \in [0,1]α∈[0,1]. Bypassing duality by a direct construction of the worst distribution is possible for the upper value but not obviously for the lower bound at the boundary λ=∥β∥p\lambda = \|\beta\|_pλ=∥β∥p​.

Formalization scope

  • Predictors are Fin d → ℝ, a data point is (Fin d → ℝ) × ℝ with the product Borel σ-algebra, and samples are indexed by Fin n with 0 < n. Labels are real numbers with the hypothesis Yi∈{−1,+1}Y_i \in \{-1,+1\}Yi​∈{−1,+1}, which Theorem 2 inherits from Example 2; the cost NqN_qNq​ is defined on all of Rd×R\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb RRd×R.
  • The ℓq\ell_qℓq​ norm is the norm of PiLp q, with q p : ℝ≥0∞ and p.HolderConjugate q; q=1q = 1q=1 and q=∞q = \inftyq=∞ are included, and no further restriction on qqq is imposed.
  • The transport cost is an infimum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures on Z×ZZ\times ZZ×Z with both marginals fixed. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of the nonnegative losses, and the worst case is a supremum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over probability measures. The empirical distribution is the published platform definition WassersteinDRO.Regularization.empiricalDistribution.
  • Readings. The paper prints the SVM identity without inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on the right; the goal states the per-β\betaβ identities (what the proof establishes) and the identities of infima with inf⁡β\inf_\betainfβ​ on both sides. The proof's displays write the transport norm as ∥⋅∥p\|\cdot\|_p∥⋅∥p​ and the penalty as ∥β∥q\|\beta\|_q∥β∥q​, the reverse of the theorem; milestones use the theorem's convention. The logistic chain's printed indicators 1{λ>∥β∥}\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda>\|\beta\|\}}1{λ>∥β∥}​, ∞1{λ≤∥β∥}\infty\mathbf 1_{\{\lambda\le\|\beta\|\}}∞1{λ≤∥β∥}​ should read ≥\ge≥ and <<<; the stated end-to-end identity is unaffected. Proposition 1 is stated with a fixed nonnegative loss and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a cost infimum over sub-probability couplings or with one marginal free, or a Bochner expectation that vanishes on non-integrable laws, would make the worst case +∞+\infty+∞ or 000; the definitions here fix both marginals, use probability measures only and integrate in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. At δ=0\delta = 0δ=0 the ball is {Pn}\{P_n\}{Pn​} and both sides reduce to the empirical loss.
  • Infrastructure needed: optimal-transport duality with extended-valued lower semicontinuous costs (reusable well beyond this mission), Hölder equality cases for PiLp, and calculus for the logistic function. Contributions to any of these are welcome, as are proofs of the inner suprema, which are independent of Proposition 1.

Selected references

  • J. Blanchet, Y. Kang, K. Murthy, Robust Wasserstein Profile Inference and Applications to Machine Learning, J. Appl. Probab. 56(3), 2019; arXiv:1610.05627v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.05627
  • J. Blanchet, K. Murthy, Quantifying Distributional Model Risk via Optimal Transport, Math. Oper. Res. 44(2), 2019. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2018.0936
  • S. Shafieezadeh-Abadeh, P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Distributionally Robust Logistic Regression, NIPS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.09259
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Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms III: With One Unknown Parameter, Staged Re-estimation Has Regret O((log log n)(log n)^{1/2}/n^{1/2})Research Paper

Motivation

A seller with a fixed stock of a single product and a finite selling season must post prices without knowing how demand responds to price. Revenue management treats this as a constrained stochastic control problem; with the demand curve known, the problem was solved by Gallego and van Ryzin (Management Science, 1994). When the curve is unknown, every price posted also serves as an experiment, so the seller faces an exploration–exploitation trade-off. Unlike a multi-armed bandit, this problem has a continuum of actions and a hard inventory constraint.

Besbes and Zeevi (Operations Research, 2009) measure a pricing policy by its worst-case relative revenue loss against a full-information benchmark, in an asymptotic regime where inventory and demand grow together. They give three upper bounds. This mission takes the third, Proposition 5: when the demand model has a single unknown scalar parameter, a policy that keeps re-estimating that parameter in stages of growing length has regret O((log⁡log⁡n)(log⁡n)1/2/n1/2)O\big((\log\log n)(\log n)^{1/2}/n^{1/2}\big)O((loglogn)(logn)1/2/n1/2). The paper's lower bound for parametric families (Proposition 4) is of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2, so the rate is optimal up to logarithmic factors.

Setting

Market. Prices lie in [p‾,p‾]∪{p∞}[\underline p,\overline p]\cup\{p_\infty\}[p​,p​]∪{p∞​} with 0<p‾<p‾<p∞0<\underline p<\overline p<p_\infty0<p​<p​<p∞​. Posting the off price p∞p_\inftyp∞​ stops demand. The seller starts with inventory x>0x>0x>0 and sells over the horizon [0,T][0,T][0,T], T>0T>0T>0.

Demand. A demand function λ\lambdaλ maps a price to a demand rate. The class L(M,K‾,K‾,m)\mathcal L(M,\underline K,\overline K,m)L(M,K​,K,m) consists of the functions that are non-increasing with an inverse γ\gammaγ on [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​], have a concave revenue rate r(l)=lγ(l)r(l)=l\gamma(l)r(l)=lγ(l), are bounded by MMM, are K‾\overline KK-Lipschitz with a K‾−1\underline K^{-1}K​−1-Lipschitz inverse, and attain a revenue rate max⁡ppλ(p)≥m\max_p p\lambda(p)\ge mmaxp​pλ(p)≥m. The parametric family is λ(p;θ)\lambda(p;\theta)λ(p;θ), θ∈Θ=[θlo,θhi]\theta\in\Theta=[\theta_{\mathrm{lo}},\theta_{\mathrm{hi}}]θ∈Θ=[θlo​,θhi​], with every member in the class (Assumption 1). Assumption 2 adds a test price p1p_1p1​, differentiability of λ(p1;⋅)\sqrt{\lambda(p_1;\cdot)}λ(p1​;⋅)​ and the Lipschitz bound ∣λ(p;θ)−λ(p;θ′)∣≤K‾2∣θ−θ′∣|\lambda(p;\theta)-\lambda(p;\theta')|\le\overline K_2|\theta-\theta'|∣λ(p;θ)−λ(p;θ′)∣≤K2​∣θ−θ′∣. Assumption 3 requires inf⁡p,θλ(p;θ)>l0>0\inf_{p,\theta}\lambda(p;\theta)>l_0>0infp,θ​λ(p;θ)>l0​>0 and an α\alphaα-Lipschitz solution map d↦g(p,d)d\mapsto g(p,d)d↦g(p,d) of the equation λ(p;⋅)=d\lambda(p;\cdot)=dλ(p;⋅)=d.

Demand process. Let NNN be a unit-rate Poisson process. Under a price path p(⋅)p(\cdot)p(⋅) and parameter θ∗\theta^*θ∗, the cumulative demand up to time ttt is N(∫0tλ(p(s);θ∗) ds)N\big(\int_0^t\lambda(p(s);\theta^*)\,ds\big)N(∫0t​λ(p(s);θ∗)ds). Sales stop when the inventory runs out.

Benchmark and regret. The deterministic relaxation JD(x,T∣θ)J^D(x,T\mid\theta)JD(x,T∣θ) is the supremum of ∫0Tp(s)λ(p(s);θ) ds\int_0^T p(s)\lambda(p(s);\theta)\,ds∫0T​p(s)λ(p(s);θ)ds over price paths with ∫0Tλ(p(s);θ) ds≤x\int_0^T\lambda(p(s);\theta)\,ds\le x∫0T​λ(p(s);θ)ds≤x. In the market of size nnn the inventory is nxnxnx and the demand nλn\lambdanλ. If Jnπ(x,T;θ)J^\pi_n(x,T;\theta)Jnπ​(x,T;θ) is the expected revenue of a policy π\piπ, its regret is Rnπ=1−Jnπ/JnD\mathcal R^\pi_n=1-J^\pi_n/J^D_nRnπ​=1−Jnπ​/JnD​.

Algorithm 3. Start from p^1=p1\hat p_1=p_1p^​1​=p1​ and use stages of lengths Δn(1),…,Δn(ℓn)\Delta^{(1)}_n,\dots,\Delta^{(\ell_n)}_nΔn(1)​,…,Δn(ℓn​)​ summing to TTT. Stage iii applies p^i\hat p_ip^​i​, estimates the demand rate d^i\hat d_id^i​ from the stage's demand, solves for θ^i=g(p^i,d^i)\hat\theta_i=g(\hat p_i,\hat d_i)θ^i​=g(p^​i​,d^i​), and sets p^i+1=max⁡{pu(θ^i),pc(θ^i)}\hat p_{i+1}=\max\{p^u(\hat\theta_i),p^c(\hat\theta_i)\}p^​i+1​=max{pu(θ^i​),pc(θ^i​)}. Here pu(θ)p^u(\theta)pu(θ) maximizes pλ(p;θ)p\lambda(p;\theta)pλ(p;θ) and pc(θ)p^c(\theta)pc(θ) minimizes ∣λ(p;θ)−x/T∣|\lambda(p;\theta)-x/T|∣λ(p;θ)−x/T∣. The tuning (19)–(20) is ℓn=(log⁡2)−1log⁡log⁡n\ell_n=(\log2)^{-1}\log\log nℓn​=(log2)−1loglogn stages with Δn(m)=βnn(aℓn/am)−1\Delta^{(m)}_n=\beta_n n^{(a_{\ell_n}/a_m)-1}Δn(m)​=βn​n(aℓn​​/am​)−1 and am=2m−1/(2m−1)a_m=2^{m-1}/(2^m-1)am​=2m−1/(2m−1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

∃ C>0, ∃ n0,∀n≥n0, ∀θ∈Θ:Rnπn(x,T;θ)≤C (log⁡log⁡n)(log⁡n)1/2n1/2.\exists\,C>0,\ \exists\,n_0,\quad \forall n\ge n_0,\ \forall\theta\in\Theta:\qquad \mathcal R^{\pi_n}_n(x,T;\theta)\le C\,\frac{(\log\log n)(\log n)^{1/2}}{n^{1/2}} .∃C>0, ∃n0​,∀n≥n0​, ∀θ∈Θ:Rnπn​​(x,T;θ)≤Cn1/2(loglogn)(logn)1/2​.

The constants are uniform in θ\thetaθ and nnn. This is the paper's (21): sup⁡θRnπ=O(⋅)\sup_\theta\mathcal R^{\pi}_n=O(\cdot)supθ​Rnπ​=O(⋅).

Milestones, in proof order

  1. Fact 1: JnD=nJDJ^D_n=nJ^DJnD​=nJD and JD≥mmin⁡{T,x/M}J^D\ge m\min\{T,x/M\}JD≥mmin{T,x/M} on the class.
  2. Lemma 1: the deterministic relaxation is solved by the fixed price pD=max⁡{pu,pc}p^D=\max\{p^u,p^c\}pD=max{pu,pc}.
  3. Lemma 2: Poisson deviation bounds at scale (log⁡n/rn)1/2(\log n/r_n)^{1/2}(logn/rn​)1/2.
  4. (A-27): a revenue lower bound that splits the loss into stage-wise terms and an overflow term.
  5. The per-stage revenue gap r(pD)−E r(p^i)≤C2(nΔn(i−1))−1/2r(p^D)-\mathbb E\,r(\hat p_i)\le C_2(n\Delta^{(i-1)}_n)^{-1/2}r(pD)−Er(p^​i​)≤C2​(nΔn(i−1)​)−1/2.
  6. (A-30): the stage-iii demand rate rarely exceeds the run-out rate.
  7. The overflow bound E[(Yn−nx)+]≤nC8(log⁡n)1/2naℓn−1\mathbb E[(Y_n-nx)^+]\le nC_8(\log n)^{1/2}n^{a_{\ell_n}-1}E[(Yn​−nx)+]≤nC8​(logn)1/2naℓn​​−1.
  8. (A-31): the revenue ratio before the exponents are evaluated.
  9. The rate estimate naℓn−1≤e n−1/2n^{a_{\ell_n}-1}\le e\,n^{-1/2}naℓn​​−1≤en−1/2.

Milestones 6–8 hold in the case λ(p‾;θ∗)≤x/T\lambda(\overline p;\theta^*)\le x/Tλ(p​;θ∗)≤x/T, the only case the paper's proof treats in detail.

Significance

Proposition 5 shows that with one unknown parameter, learning while earning reaches the n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 rate, up to logarithms. The learn-then-price policies of Propositions 1 and 3 stop learning after an initial phase and reach only n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4 and n−1/3n^{-1/3}n−1/3. The paper leaves open whether the multi-parameter case attains the lower bound.

The analysis combines a continuous-time controlled Poisson model, an inventory constraint and a staged estimator, which also appear in later work on dynamic pricing with learning. A formal development would provide a time-changed Poisson demand model with random stage boundaries, a deterministic-relaxation benchmark, and concentration bounds stated for the scales this literature uses.

The result is proved in the paper, but parts of the proof are only sketched. The case λ(p‾;θ∗)>x/T\lambda(\overline p;\theta^*)>x/Tλ(p​;θ∗)>x/T is dismissed with "a similar result holds". The per-stage gap is obtained "by parallel reasoning". Display (A-30) has a typographical error in its threshold. To our knowledge, none of these results has been machine-checked.

Difficulty

The naive argument conditions each stage on its start time, as if that time were deterministic. It is not: the stage boundaries Λi=∑j≤inλ(p^j;θ∗)Δn(j)\Lambda_i=\sum_{j\le i}n\lambda(\hat p_j;\theta^*)\Delta^{(j)}_nΛi​=∑j≤i​nλ(p^​j​;θ∗)Δn(j)​ depend on all earlier observations, so every per-stage estimate needs the strong Markov property of the Poisson process at a random time. The inventory constraint makes the revenue a nonlinear function of the whole demand path. Bounding the loss therefore means controlling estimation error and overflow at the same time. The geometric stage lengths (20) are chosen so that the stage losses Δn(i)/(nΔn(i−1))1/2\Delta^{(i)}_n/(n\Delta^{(i-1)}_n)^{1/2}Δn(i)​/(nΔn(i−1)​)1/2 are all of the same order. That balance has to be checked exactly, including the rounding of ℓn\ell_nℓn​ to an integer.

Formalization scope

  • Poisson process. A structure on an arbitrary probability space: N(0)=0N(0)=0N(0)=0, monotone right-continuous paths, measurable marginals, Poisson increments, and independent increments over finite partitions. No process is published on the platform.
  • Class and family. Conditions on λ\lambdaλ are imposed on [p‾,p‾]∪{p∞}[\underline p,\overline p]\cup\{p_\infty\}[p​,p​]∪{p∞​}, the only prices a path uses. The inverse γ\gammaγ is Function.invFunOn. Θ\ThetaΘ is a nonempty closed interval of R\mathbb RR.
  • Assumption 3. As printed it cannot hold for d>sup⁡θλ(p;θ)d>\sup_\theta\lambda(p;\theta)d>supθ​λ(p;θ). It is read as an α\alphaα-Lipschitz map g(p,⋅):[0,∞)→Θg(p,\cdot):[0,\infty)\to\Thetag(p,⋅):[0,∞)→Θ that inverts λ(p;⋅)\lambda(p;\cdot)λ(p;⋅) on Θ\ThetaΘ. ggg is jointly measurable, so that estimates at random prices are random variables.
  • Selections. pu,pcp^u,p^cpu,pc are any measurable selections of the maximizer and minimizer; the statements hold for each.
  • Inventory. The inventory is ⌊nx⌋\lfloor nx\rfloor⌊nx⌋ units, and sales are capped cumulative counts.
  • Time change. Eq. (1) is applied stage by stage with random stage boundaries.
  • Typos. In Algorithm 3, "λ(pi,θ)\lambda(p_i,\theta)λ(pi​,θ)" is read as λ(p^i;θ)\lambda(\hat p_i;\theta)λ(p^​i​;θ) and "x/tx/tx/t" as x/Tx/Tx/T.
  • Stages. ℓn=⌈log⁡2log⁡n⌉\ell_n=\lceil\log_2\log n\rceilℓn​=⌈log2​logn⌉.
  • Integrals. Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals of nonnegative quantities, converted to reals. The relaxation is a real supremum over measurable paths.
  • Asymptotics. The O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is rendered with an explicit n0n_0n0​. The clause "asymptotically optimal" is omitted, since it needs the second half of Lemma 1.
  • Ruled out. Each of the following would trivialize the statement: removing the inventory cap, replacing the random stage boundaries by deterministic ones, fixing θ\thetaθ, letting CCC depend on θ\thetaθ, or using a non-measurable selection (whose expectation would be a junk value).

Contributions are welcome on every milestone. The Poisson process structure, its strong Markov property at stage boundaries, and Lemma 2 can be reused in other Poisson-demand pricing and queueing missions. Lemma 1 and Fact 1 are deterministic, and the rate estimate already has a local proof.

Selected references

  • O. Besbes and A. Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms, Operations Research 57(6):1407–1420, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0640
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • K. Talluri and G. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Springer, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms II: The Parametric Learn-then-Price Policy Has Regret at Most C(log n)^{1/2}/n^{1/3}Research Paper

Why learn demand while pricing?

A seller with a fixed inventory must choose prices before knowing how customers respond to them. A price that earns a high margin can sell too slowly; a price that sells quickly can exhaust stock before the selling season ends. Learning demand uses time and inventory, so the seller must account for the cost of its own experiments. This mission formalizes the parametric policy and regret bound of Besbes and Zeevi (2009), Proposition 3. Their setting differs from a finite-arm bandit: the permitted ordinary prices form an interval, customer arrivals are random, and the available stock caps total sales.

The paper first analyzes a nonparametric class with a slower upper bound in Proposition 1, then imposes a known finite-dimensional form on the unknown demand curve in Section 5. Proposition 3 shows how that additional information improves the regret rate for its Algorithm 2. The authors also prove a lower bound for a suitable parametric family in Proposition 4; that result is outside this mission's capstone, which concerns the performance guarantee of the concrete policy.

Market, demand, and policy

The selling horizon has length T>0T>0T>0, and the initial stock is x>0x>0x>0. An ordinary price ppp lies in [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​], with 0<p‾<p‾0<\underline p<\overline p0<p​<p​. The special price p∞>0p_\infty>0p∞​>0 stops demand. At parameter θ∈Θ⊆Rk\theta\in\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^kθ∈Θ⊆Rk, the demand rate is λ(p;θ)≥0\lambda(p;\theta)\ge0λ(p;θ)≥0. The parameter set Θ\ThetaΘ is nonempty, compact, and convex; kkk is positive. The seller knows the family λ(⋅;θ)\lambda(\cdot;\theta)λ(⋅;θ) but does not know the true parameter θ∗\theta^*θ∗.

For each parameter, demand is nonincreasing in the price and has an inverse γ(⋅;θ)\gamma(\cdot;\theta)γ(⋅;θ) on the attainable rate interval. The rate revenue is r(ℓ;θ)=ℓγ(ℓ;θ)r(\ell;\theta)=\ell\gamma(\ell;\theta)r(ℓ;θ)=ℓγ(ℓ;θ), a concave function of the rate. Every member of the family satisfies Assumption 1 with the same positive constants M,K‾,K‾,mM,\underline K,\overline K,mM,K​,K,m: demand is at most MMM, its price variation is at most K‾\overline KK times the price difference, its inverse is K‾−1\underline K^{-1}K​−1-Lipschitz, and some ordinary price earns revenue rate at least mmm. These conditions define the class in which the bound is uniform. See §§3–4.2 of the source.

Customer requests follow a unit-rate Poisson process NNN run on a demand-dependent clock. Under price p(t)p(t)p(t), cumulative requests at time ttt equal N(∫0tλ(p(s);θ∗) ds)N(\int_0^t\lambda(p(s);\theta^*)\,ds)N(∫0t​λ(p(s);θ∗)ds). The market of size nnn has stock nxnxnx and rate nλn\lambdanλ. Sales stop when stock runs out. The deterministic relaxation JnDJ_n^DJnD​ is the best integrated rate revenue over measurable price paths satisfying the expected-demand stock constraint, with the same scaling. The policy revenue JnπJ_n^\piJnπ​ is its expected sales revenue, and its relative regret is Rnπ=1−Jnπ/JnDR_n^\pi=1-J_n^\pi/J_n^DRnπ​=1−Jnπ​/JnD​. Fact 1 states JnD=nJDJ_n^D=nJ^DJnD​=nJD and gives a positive uniform lower bound on JDJ^DJD.

Assumption 2 selects kkk distinct ordinary test prices. Their mean rates identify the parameter through a Lipschitz inverse map ggg, and demand changes at most K‾2∥θ−θ′∥∞\overline K_2\|\theta-\theta'\|_\inftyK2​∥θ−θ′∥∞​ as the parameter varies. The square root of each test-price rate is differentiable on Θ\ThetaΘ. Algorithm 2 spends τn\tau_nτn​ time units testing these prices in equal subintervals, estimates each rate from its Poisson count increment, and sets θ^=g(d^)\widehat\theta=g(\widehat d)θ=g(d). It then posts p^=max⁡{pu(θ^),pc(θ^)}\widehat p=\max\{p^u(\widehat\theta),p^c(\widehat\theta)\}p​=max{pu(θ),pc(θ)}, where pup^upu maximizes revenue rate and pcp^cpc minimizes the distance of demand to x/Tx/Tx/T. It keeps that price until time TTT or stock-out. See §5.1–5.2.

Formalization targets

The capstone is the uniform bound in Proposition 3, equation (17). With τn≍n−1/3\tau_n\asymp n^{-1/3}τn​≍n−1/3, the mission asks for one constant C>0C>0C>0, independent of nnn, θ∗\theta^*θ∗, the optimizer choices, and the probability space, such that

∀θ∗∈Θ,Rnπ(x,T;θ∗)≤Clog⁡nn1/3(n≥2).\forall\theta^*\in\Theta,\qquad R_n^\pi(x,T;\theta^*)\le C\frac{\sqrt{\log n}}{n^{1/3}}\quad(n\ge2).∀θ∗∈Θ,Rnπ​(x,T;θ∗)≤Cn1/3logn​​(n≥2).

The intermediate quantitative target is equation (A-25), which retains the learning time:

Rnπ≤C3mD(τn+log⁡nnτn),mD=mmin⁡{T,x/M}.R_n^\pi\le\frac{C_3}{m^D}\left(\tau_n+\frac{\sqrt{\log n}}{\sqrt{n\tau_n}}\right),\qquad m^D=m\min\{T,x/M\}.Rnπ​≤mDC3​​(τn​+nτn​​logn​​),mD=mmin{T,x/M}.

The milestone list also carries Fact 1, the optimal deterministic price path and value from the first assertion of Lemma 1, both Poisson tails of Lemma 2, the pricing-phase revenue bound (A-17), the deterministic stability bounds (A-19), (A-22), and (A-23), and the parameter-estimation bound of Lemma 6. The paper's assertion that the policy is “asymptotically optimal” follows from the displayed regret estimate together with nonnegative regret; the displayed numerical estimate is the formal goal.

What the result provides

A finite-dimensional demand model lets the seller learn from a fixed set of kkk prices rather than probing an increasingly fine price grid. Proposition 3 quantifies the resulting revenue loss at O(log⁡n n−1/3)O(\sqrt{\log n}\,n^{-1/3})O(logn​n−1/3), compared with the paper's O(log⁡n n−1/4)O(\sqrt{\log n}\,n^{-1/4})O(logn​n−1/4) upper bound for its nonparametric learn-then-price policy. Both guarantees compare actual expected revenue with the full-information deterministic benchmark, including stock-out. These rates are proved in the article; the mission seeks machine-checked Lean proofs of the stated model, auxiliary bounds, and capstone. No such proof is claimed here.

The formalization would also provide reusable interfaces for a unit-rate Poisson counting process, deterministic inventory-constrained revenue optimization, measurable price selectors, and a random price chosen from normalized count observations. The later single-parameter policy in the paper uses related ideas but is a separate mission with different stages and a different rate.

Main difficulty

A rate estimate can be close to the true rate while the selected price changes between two different optimizers: the unconstrained revenue maximizer and the price that matches inventory to expected demand. A bound for only one optimizer does not control the maximum of the two. The learning price is random, and the number of requests in the pricing phase is evaluated at a random Poisson clock. Stock-out further couples the learning phase to the amount available for later sales. These features prevent a direct substitution of an ordinary parameter-estimation bound into the final revenue formula.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin(k)→R\mathrm{Fin}(k)\to\mathbb RFin(k)→R with its sup norm for parameter vectors, a finite positive off price, and a Poisson process on an arbitrary probability space. Each demand curve is defined on all real prices but is constrained on [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​] and at p∞p_\inftyp∞​; the inverse and concavity conditions apply on the attainable rate interval. The deterministic benchmark is a real supremum over measurable, integrable admissible price paths. The class assumptions make its value nonempty and bounded. Policy revenue uses a nonnegative integral of pathwise revenue, avoiding a default zero from a nonintegrable signed expectation.

Inventory is measured in whole units, so the cap is ⌊nx⌋\lfloor nx\rfloor⌊nx⌋, equal to the paper's nxnxnx when that quantity is integral. Test-price observations remain uncapped in the formula for d^\widehat dd; if stock runs out during learning, capped later sales are already zero. The continuous optimizer choices are measurable selections satisfying the actual max/min properties for every member of Θ\ThetaΘ. The bound is uniform over these choices and over all unit-rate Poisson processes.

The printed Assumption 2(i)b asks for a solution to the test-rate equations for every vector in Rk\mathbb R^kRk. Such a solution cannot always lie in compact Θ\ThetaΘ, although the proof applies Assumption 2(ii) to θ^\widehat\thetaθ. Here ggg is a Lipschitz map into Θ\ThetaΘ that recovers each true parameter from its test-rate vector; it can be viewed as the unconstrained inverse followed by a nonexpansive projection in the paper's box example. This explicit convention is required to make the estimate and subsequent use of Assumption 2(ii) coherent. It is an interpretive repair of the printed condition.

The paper prints the regret bound for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, where log⁡1=0\sqrt{\log1}=0log1​=0. The exploration policy can lose revenue at n=1n=1n=1, so the formal theorem starts at n≥2n\ge2n≥2. The comparison τn≍n−1/3\tau_n\asymp n^{-1/3}τn​≍n−1/3 is encoded by positive lower and upper multipliers after a fixed threshold, with 0<τn≤T0<\tau_n\le T0<τn​≤T for all relevant market sizes. This admits the usual finite initial adjustments and leaves the bound uniform over the sequence. No fixed demand curve, known parameter, finite price grid, or uncapped sales model can satisfy this target by substitution.

Selected references

  • Omar Besbes and Assaf Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms, Operations Research 57(6), 2009, authors' final manuscript revised December 16, 2007. DOI: 10.1287/opre.1080.0640.
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Non-Strongly-Convex Smooth Stochastic Approximation with Convergence Rate O(1/n): Averaged Constant-Step-Size LMS Has Expected Excess Risk at Most (1/2n)[σ√d/(1−√(γR²)) + R‖θ₀−θ*‖/√(γR²)]²Research Paper

Motivation

Least-squares regression fitted by stochastic gradient descent — the least-mean-square (LMS) algorithm — is the basic large-scale learning procedure: each observation is touched once, at a cost linear in the dimension. Classical analyses of stochastic approximation give the rate O(1/n)O(1/\sqrt n)O(1/n​) for non-strongly-convex objectives, and O(1/(μn))O(1/(\mu n))O(1/(μn)) when the objective is μ\muμ-strongly convex. For least squares, μ\muμ is the smallest eigenvalue of the input covariance, which in high-dimensional problems is close to zero, so the strongly convex rate is often worse than the non-strongly-convex one.

F. Bach and E. Moulines (arXiv:1306.2119, NeurIPS 2013) showed that for the square loss this dichotomy disappears: averaged LMS with a constant step size reaches the rate O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n) with no strong-convexity assumption, and with a constant that does not involve the smallest eigenvalue. Averaging of stochastic approximation iterates goes back to Polyak and Juditsky (SIAM J. Control Optim. 1992), whose guarantees are asymptotic and use decreasing step sizes. The proof technique for the expansion of the noise process is adapted from Aguech, Moulines and Priouret (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2000). This mission formalizes the non-asymptotic bound in expectation (Theorem 1 of the paper) and the chain of lemmas of its Appendix A.

Setting

Let H=Rd\mathcal H=\mathbb R^dH=Rd with d≥1d\ge1d≥1, inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. For a∈Ha\in\mathcal Ha∈H, a⊗aa\otimes aa⊗a is the operator b↦⟨a,b⟩ab\mapsto\langle a,b\rangle ab↦⟨a,b⟩a. For self-adjoint operators, A≼BA\preccurlyeq BA≼B means that B−AB-AB−A is positive semi-definite.

The data are independent and identically distributed pairs (xn,zn)∈H×H(x_n,z_n)\in\mathcal H\times\mathcal H(xn​,zn​)∈H×H, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, with finite second moments. The covariance operator is H=E[xn⊗xn]H=\mathbb E[x_n\otimes x_n]H=E[xn​⊗xn​], assumed invertible (its eigenvalues may be arbitrarily small). The least-squares objective

f(θ)=12 E[⟨θ,xn⟩2−2⟨θ,zn⟩]f(\theta)=\tfrac12\,\mathbb E\big[\langle\theta,x_n\rangle^2-2\langle\theta,z_n\rangle\big]f(θ)=21​E[⟨θ,xn​⟩2−2⟨θ,zn​⟩]

attains its global minimum at θ∗\theta^*θ∗, and ξn=zn−⟨θ∗,xn⟩xn\xi_n=z_n-\langle\theta^*,x_n\rangle x_nξn​=zn​−⟨θ∗,xn​⟩xn​ is the residual. The model need not be well specified: E[ξn∣xn]\mathbb E[\xi_n\mid x_n]E[ξn​∣xn​] need not vanish. Two constants R,σ>0R,\sigma>0R,σ>0 satisfy

E[ξn⊗ξn]≼σ2H,E[∥xn∥2xn⊗xn]≼R2H.\mathbb E[\xi_n\otimes\xi_n]\preccurlyeq\sigma^2H,\qquad \mathbb E\big[\|x_n\|^2x_n\otimes x_n\big]\preccurlyeq R^2H .E[ξn​⊗ξn​]≼σ2H,E[∥xn​∥2xn​⊗xn​]≼R2H.

These are assumptions (A1)–(A6) of §2.1. The LMS recursion with constant step size γ\gammaγ, started at θ0∈H\theta_0\in\mathcal Hθ0​∈H, is

θn=θn−1−γ(⟨θn−1,xn⟩xn−zn)=(I−γxn⊗xn)θn−1+γzn,\theta_n=\theta_{n-1}-\gamma\big(\langle\theta_{n-1},x_n\rangle x_n-z_n\big)=(I-\gamma x_n\otimes x_n)\theta_{n-1}+\gamma z_n ,θn​=θn−1​−γ(⟨θn−1​,xn​⟩xn​−zn​)=(I−γxn​⊗xn​)θn−1​+γzn​,

and its average is θˉn−1=n−1∑k=0n−1θk\bar\theta_{n-1}=n^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\theta_kθˉn−1​=n−1∑k=0n−1​θk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1, Eq. (2)

For every step size 0<γ<1/R20<\gamma<1/R^20<γ<1/R2 and every n≥1n\ge1n≥1,

E[f(θˉn−1)−f(θ∗)]≤12n[σd1−γR2+R∥θ0−θ∗∥1γR2]2.\mathbb E\big[f(\bar\theta_{n-1})-f(\theta^*)\big]\le\frac{1}{2n}\left[\frac{\sigma\sqrt d}{1-\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}+R\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|\frac{1}{\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}\right]^2 .E[f(θˉn−1​)−f(θ∗)]≤2n1​[1−γR2​σd​​+R∥θ0​−θ∗∥γR2​1​]2.

The constants are the paper's. A companion item states the case γ=1/(4R2)\gamma=1/(4R^2)γ=1/(4R2), where the bound reads 2n[σd+R∥θ0−θ∗∥]2\frac2n\big[\sigma\sqrt d+R\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|\big]^2n2​[σd​+R∥θ0​−θ∗∥]2.

Milestones (Appendix A)

  1. The excess risk is a quadratic form: f(θ)−f(θ∗)=12⟨θ−θ∗,H(θ−θ∗)⟩f(\theta)-f(\theta^*)=\tfrac12\langle\theta-\theta^*,H(\theta-\theta^*)\ranglef(θ)−f(θ∗)=21​⟨θ−θ∗,H(θ−θ∗)⟩.
  2. Consequences of (A6): E∥xn∥2≤R2\mathbb E\|x_n\|^2\le R^2E∥xn​∥2≤R2, tr⁡H≤R2\operatorname{tr}H\le R^2trH≤R2, H≼R2IH\preccurlyeq R^2IH≼R2I, and γH≼I\gamma H\preccurlyeq IγH≼I for γ≤1/R2\gamma\le1/R^2γ≤1/R2.
  3. Lemma 1: for a recursion αn=(I−γxn⊗xn)αn−1+γξn\alpha_n=(I-\gamma x_n\otimes x_n)\alpha_{n-1}+\gamma\xi_nαn​=(I−γxn​⊗xn​)αn−1​+γξn​ with martingale-difference noise and γR2≤1\gamma R^2\le1γR2≤1,
(1−γR2) E⟨αˉn−1,Hαˉn−1⟩+12nγE∥αn∥2≤12nγ∥α0∥2+γn∑k=1nE∥ξk∥2.(1-\gamma R^2)\,\mathbb E\langle\bar\alpha_{n-1},H\bar\alpha_{n-1}\rangle+\tfrac{1}{2n\gamma}\mathbb E\|\alpha_n\|^2\le\tfrac{1}{2n\gamma}\|\alpha_0\|^2+\tfrac{\gamma}{n}\textstyle\sum_{k=1}^{n}\mathbb E\|\xi_k\|^2 .(1−γR2)E⟨αˉn−1​,Hαˉn−1​⟩+2nγ1​E∥αn​∥2≤2nγ1​∥α0​∥2+nγ​∑k=1n​E∥ξk​∥2.
  1. Lemma 3: (1−(1−u)n)2≤nu(1-(1-u)^n)^2\le nu(1−(1−u)n)2≤nu for u∈[0,1]u\in[0,1]u∈[0,1] and n>0n>0n>0.
  2. Lemma 2: for αn=(I−γH)αn−1+γξn\alpha_n=(I-\gamma H)\alpha_{n-1}+\gamma\xi_nαn​=(I−γH)αn−1​+γξn​ with E[ξn⊗ξn]≼C\mathbb E[\xi_n\otimes\xi_n]\preccurlyeq CE[ξn​⊗ξn​]≼C, the second-moment bound (13) and
E⟨αˉn−1,Hαˉn−1⟩≤1nγ∥α0∥2+1ntr⁡(CH−1).\mathbb E\langle\bar\alpha_{n-1},H\bar\alpha_{n-1}\rangle\le\tfrac{1}{n\gamma}\|\alpha_0\|^2+\tfrac1n\operatorname{tr}(CH^{-1}).E⟨αˉn−1​,Hαˉn−1​⟩≤nγ1​∥α0​∥2+n1​tr(CH−1).
  1. The pathwise decomposition θn−θ∗=M1n(θ0−θ∗)+γ∑k=1nMk+1nξk\theta_n-\theta^*=M^n_1(\theta_0-\theta^*)+\gamma\sum_{k=1}^nM^n_{k+1}\xi_kθn​−θ∗=M1n​(θ0​−θ∗)+γ∑k=1n​Mk+1n​ξk​ (A.2).
  2. The initial-condition bound E⟨ηˉn−1,Hηˉn−1⟩≤∥η0∥2/(nγ)\mathbb E\langle\bar\eta_{n-1},H\bar\eta_{n-1}\rangle\le\|\eta_0\|^2/(n\gamma)E⟨ηˉ​n−1​,Hηˉ​n−1​⟩≤∥η0​∥2/(nγ) for the noise-free process (A.3).
  3. The expansion of the noise process (A.4): the remainder recursion (16), the covariance bound (17) E[ηn−1r⊗ηn−1r]≼γr+1R2rσ2I\mathbb E[\eta^r_{n-1}\otimes\eta^r_{n-1}]\preccurlyeq\gamma^{r+1}R^{2r}\sigma^2IE[ηn−1r​⊗ηn−1r​]≼γr+1R2rσ2I, the order-rrr bound 1nγrR2rdσ2\frac1n\gamma^rR^{2r}d\sigma^2n1​γrR2rdσ2, the remainder bound γr+2σ2R2r+41−γR2\frac{\gamma^{r+2}\sigma^2R^{2r+4}}{1-\gamma R^2}1−γR2γr+2σ2R2r+4​, and the noise bound
(E⟨ηˉn−1,Hηˉn−1⟩)1/2≤σdn⋅11−γR2(η0=0, γR2<1).\big(\mathbb E\langle\bar\eta_{n-1},H\bar\eta_{n-1}\rangle\big)^{1/2}\le\frac{\sigma\sqrt d}{\sqrt n}\cdot\frac{1}{1-\sqrt{\gamma R^2}}\quad(\eta_0=0,\ \gamma R^2<1).(E⟨ηˉ​n−1​,Hηˉ​n−1​⟩)1/2≤n​σd​​⋅1−γR2​1​(η0​=0, γR2<1).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 gives a finite-sample, dimension-explicit bound with two terms: a variance term σ2d/n\sigma^2d/nσ2d/n, which matches the minimax rate for least-squares regression, and a bias term R2∥θ0−θ∗∥2/(γn)R^2\|\theta_0-\theta^*\|^2/(\gamma n)R2∥θ0​−θ∗∥2/(γn). Neither involves the smallest eigenvalue of HHH, so the guarantee survives ill-conditioning, which is the regime of high-dimensional learning. The bound is the basis for the paper's later results: the high-probability bound (Theorem 2) and the constant-step algorithm for logistic regression (Theorem 3), whose analysis invokes Theorem 1 for the quadratic approximations.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge no part of it has been machine-checked. A formalization yields a reusable layer for linear stochastic approximation in finite dimension: martingale-difference noise in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, second-moment bounds for linear recursions driven by random operators, Loewner-order arguments, and averaging. The lemmas are stated for an abstract filtration and an abstract operator HHH, so they apply beyond this model. The mission also records the corrections the appendix needs (an "===" that should be "≼\preccurlyeq≼" in (13), an index in (16), and the exponent of ∥η0∥\|\eta_0\|∥η0​∥ in A.5).

Difficulty

Two steps resist the naive approach. First, the obvious one-step analysis — expand ∥θn−θ∗∥2\|\theta_n-\theta^*\|^2∥θn​−θ∗∥2 and take expectations — yields the bias part and Lemma 1, but on the noise it gives only γ∑kE∥ξk∥2/n\gamma\sum_k\mathbb E\|\xi_k\|^2/nγ∑k​E∥ξk​∥2/n, which does not decrease with nnn. The σ2d/n\sigma^2d/nσ2d/n rate requires averaging to cancel the noise, and this cancellation is visible only for the recursion with xn⊗xnx_n\otimes x_nxn​⊗xn​ replaced by its mean HHH. The random recursion is therefore expanded in powers of γ\gammaγ around the mean recursion, and each term ηr\eta^rηr needs its own covariance bound, by induction on rrr, using the independence of xnx_nxn​ from ηn−1r\eta^{r}_{n-1}ηn−1r​. Second, the induction relies on Loewner-order bookkeeping: sums of (I−γH)2kH(I-\gamma H)^{2k}H(I−γH)2kH must be bounded uniformly in nnn without dividing by small eigenvalues.

Formalization scope

The space H\mathcal HH is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Operators are continuous linear maps, and H−1H^{-1}H−1 is an explicit two-sided inverse. Observations are indexed from 111. Averages are pˉn−1=n−1∑k=0n−1pk\bar p_{n-1}=n^{-1}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}p_kpˉ​n−1​=n−1∑k=0n−1​pk​, with n≥1n\ge1n≥1 in every statement that uses them. The covariance operator is defined by its bilinear form, ⟨v,Hw⟩=E[⟨x1,v⟩⟨x1,w⟩]\langle v,Hw\rangle=\mathbb E[\langle x_1,v\rangle\langle x_1,w\rangle]⟨v,Hw⟩=E[⟨x1​,v⟩⟨x1​,w⟩]. Every Loewner inequality whose sides are expectations is an inequality of quadratic forms (for example E⟨ξ1,v⟩2≤σ2⟨v,Hv⟩\mathbb E\langle\xi_1,v\rangle^2\le\sigma^2\langle v,Hv\rangleE⟨ξ1​,v⟩2≤σ2⟨v,Hv⟩ for all vvv), which is the same order for self-adjoint operators.

Lean's Bochner integral is 000 on non-integrable functions, so every moment assumption carries the integrability of its integrand, and every bounded expectation in a conclusion is paired with an integrability conjunct. Without these, a heavy-tailed xnx_nxn​ would satisfy (A6) vacuously and a conclusion could hold through the value 000; neither formalization is acceptable. Independence is of the pairs (xn,zn)(x_n,z_n)(xn​,zn​), not of xnx_nxn​ and znz_nzn​ separately. (A4) is attainment of the minimum, not a gradient condition.

The following hypotheses are added to the page and disclosed in each item:

  • γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 (a step size, and γR2\sqrt{\gamma R^2}γR2​ is a denominator);
  • n≥1n\ge1n≥1;
  • the positivity and self-adjointness of HHH in Lemma 2;
  • γR2<1\gamma R^2<1γR2<1 instead of ≤1\le1≤1 in the remainder bound, which divides by 1−γR21-\gamma R^21−γR2.

A complete development needs:

  • conditional expectations of Rd\mathbb R^dRd-valued martingale differences, and the orthogonality of their sums;
  • independence of a fresh observation from the past iterates;
  • spectral calculus for (I−γH)k(I-\gamma H)^k(I−γH)k;
  • Minkowski's inequality in L2L^2L2.

All of these are reusable for other stochastic-approximation missions. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the noise bound that avoid the expansion.

Selected references

  • F. Bach and E. Moulines, Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n), Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1306.2119
  • B. T. Polyak and A. B. Juditsky, Acceleration of stochastic approximation by averaging, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 30(4), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1137/0330046
  • R. Aguech, E. Moulines and P. Priouret, On a perturbation approach for the analysis of stochastic tracking algorithms, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 39(3), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012997331639
  • F. Bach and E. Moulines, Non-asymptotic analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms for machine learning, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 24, 2011. https://hal.science/hal-00608041
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing 1: Controlled Variance Pricing Has Regret O(T^α + T^(1−α) log T)Research Paper

Motivation

A firm that sets prices without knowing how demand responds to them has to learn the demand curve from its own sales. Each price it charges is both a revenue decision and an experiment. The natural policy, certainty equivalent pricing, re-estimates the demand parameters after every period and charges the price that would be optimal if the estimates were exact. den Boer and Zwart show that this policy can fail: with positive probability its prices settle at a suboptimal value, because they converge too fast for the estimates to keep improving (den Boer–Zwart 2014, Proposition 1, the subject of the companion mission). The same phenomenon was found by Lai and Robbins (1982) for a linear control problem.

Their remedy, Controlled Variance Pricing (CVP), keeps certainty equivalent pricing but forces the sample variance of the chosen prices to decay no faster than tα−1t^{\alpha-1}tα−1. The main result is that this small amount of enforced exploration gives regret O(Tα+T1−αlog⁡T)O(T^\alpha + T^{1-\alpha}\log T)O(Tα+T1−αlogT), hence O(T1/2+δ)O(T^{1/2+\delta})O(T1/2+δ) for every δ>0\delta > 0δ>0, for a broad class of demand models that are specified only through their first two moments. Keskin and Zeevi (2014) later placed CVP in a larger family of semi-myopic policies with Tlog⁡T\sqrt T\log TT​logT regret for linear demand.

Setting

A seller chooses in each period t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,… a price pt∈[pl,ph]p_t \in [p_l, p_h]pt​∈[pl​,ph​], with 0<pl<ph0 < p_l < p_h0<pl​<ph​, and then observes demand dtd_tdt​. Demand at price ppp has mean h(a0(0)+a1(0)p)h(a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p)h(a0(0)​+a1(0)​p) and variance σ2v(h(a0(0)+a1(0)p))\sigma^2 v(h(a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p))σ2v(h(a0(0)​+a1(0)​p)), where the link hhh and variance function vvv are known and C2C^2C2 on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), h˙>0\dot h > 0h˙>0, and the parameter a(0)=(a0(0),a1(0))a^{(0)} = (a_0^{(0)}, a_1^{(0)})a(0)=(a0(0)​,a1(0)​) with a0(0)>0>a1(0)a_0^{(0)} > 0 > a_1^{(0)}a0(0)​>0>a1(0)​ is unknown. The noise et=dt−h(a0(0)+a1(0)pt)e_t = d_t - h(a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p_t)et​=dt​−h(a0(0)​+a1(0)​pt​) is a martingale difference with conditional variance σ2v(⋅)\sigma^2 v(\cdot)σ2v(⋅) and a uniformly bounded conditional moment of some order r>3r > 3r>3.

The expected revenue is r(p,a)=p h(a0+a1p)r(p, a) = p\,h(a_0 + a_1p)r(p,a)=ph(a0​+a1​p). Near a(0)a^{(0)}a(0) it has a unique maximizer p(a)p(a)p(a) in the open interval (pl,ph)(p_l, p_h)(pl​,ph​) with ∂p2r<0\partial_p^2 r < 0∂p2​r<0 there, and popt=p(a(0))p_{\mathrm{opt}} = p(a^{(0)})popt​=p(a(0)). The regret of a policy is

Regret⁡(T)=E[∑t=1Tr(popt,a(0))−r(pt,a(0))].\operatorname{Regret}(T) = \mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T r(p_{\mathrm{opt}}, a^{(0)}) - r(p_t, a^{(0)})\Big].Regret(T)=E[t=1∑T​r(popt​,a(0))−r(pt​,a(0))].

The estimate a^t\hat a_ta^t​ is the maximum quasi-likelihood estimate (MQLE), the root of the quasi-score equation (3), ∑i≤th˙σ2v(h)(1,pi)⊤(di−h(a^0+a^1pi))=0\sum_{i\le t} \frac{\dot h}{\sigma^2 v(h)}(1, p_i)^\top(d_i - h(\hat a_0 + \hat a_1 p_i)) = 0∑i≤t​σ2v(h)h˙​(1,pi​)⊤(di​−h(a^0​+a^1​pi​))=0. With pˉt\bar p_tpˉ​t​ and Var⁡(p)t\operatorname{Var}(p)_tVar(p)t​ the sample mean and variance of p1,…,ptp_1,\dots,p_tp1​,…,pt​, the taboo interval is TI(t)=(pˉt−wt,pˉt+wt)\mathrm{TI}(t) = (\bar p_t - w_t, \bar p_t + w_t)TI(t)=(pˉ​t​−wt​,pˉ​t​+wt​) with wt=c[(t+1)α−tα](t+1)/tw_t = \sqrt{c[(t+1)^\alpha - t^\alpha](t+1)/t}wt​=c[(t+1)α−tα](t+1)/t​. CVP starts from two distinct prices p1,p2p_1, p_2p1​,p2​, fixes α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1) and 0<c<2−α(p1−p2)2min⁡{1,(3α)−1}0 < c < 2^{-\alpha}(p_1-p_2)^2\min\{1,(3\alpha)^{-1}\}0<c<2−α(p1​−p2​)2min{1,(3α)−1}, and for t≥2t \ge 2t≥2: if a^t\hat a_ta^t​ does not exist or has the wrong signs, it charges whichever of p1,p2p_1, p_2p1​,p2​ is farther from pˉt\bar p_tpˉ​t​; otherwise it charges p(a^t)p(\hat a_t)p(a^t​) if that keeps Var⁡(p)t+1≥c(t+1)α−1\operatorname{Var}(p)_{t+1} \ge c(t+1)^{\alpha-1}Var(p)t+1​≥c(t+1)α−1, and the best price outside TI(t)\mathrm{TI}(t)TI(t) if not.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Regret⁡(T,CVP)=O(Tα+T1−αlog⁡T)(1/2<α<1),\operatorname{Regret}(T, \mathrm{CVP}) = O\big(T^\alpha + T^{1-\alpha}\log T\big) \qquad (1/2 < \alpha < 1),Regret(T,CVP)=O(Tα+T1−αlogT)(1/2<α<1),

stated as: there is K>0K > 0K>0, depending on the model, α\alphaα, ccc and the initial prices but not on TTT, with Regret⁡(T)≤K(Tα+T1−αlog⁡T)\operatorname{Regret}(T) \le K(T^\alpha + T^{1-\alpha}\log T)Regret(T)≤K(Tα+T1−αlogT) for all T≥1T \ge 1T≥1. The constant is left free, so the statement survives any sharpening of the constants.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2: Var⁡(p)t≥c tα−1\operatorname{Var}(p)_t \ge c\,t^{\alpha-1}Var(p)t​≥ctα−1 for all t≥2t \ge 2t≥2 along every CVP path.
  2. Lemma 1: λmax⁡(Pt)≤(1+ph2)t\lambda_{\max}(P_t) \le (1+p_h^2)tλmax​(Pt​)≤(1+ph2​)t and tVar⁡(p)t≤(1+ph2)λmin⁡(Pt)t\operatorname{Var}(p)_t \le (1+p_h^2)\lambda_{\min}(P_t)tVar(p)t​≤(1+ph2​)λmin​(Pt​) for the design matrix Pt=∑i≤t(1,pi)⊤(1,pi)P_t = \sum_{i\le t}(1,p_i)^\top(1,p_i)Pt​=∑i≤t​(1,pi​)⊤(1,pi​).
  3. Proposition 3: a^t\hat a_ta^t​ eventually exists, a^t→a(0)\hat a_t \to a^{(0)}a^t​→a(0) a.s., and for some ρ0\rho_0ρ0​, E[Tρ01/2]<∞\mathbb E[T_{\rho_0}^{1/2}] < \inftyE[Tρ0​1/2​]<∞ and E[∥a^t−a(0)∥21t>Tρ0]=O(log⁡t/tα)\mathbb E[\|\hat a_t - a^{(0)}\|^2\mathbf 1_{t > T_{\rho_0}}] = O(\log t/t^\alpha)E[∥a^t​−a(0)∥21t>Tρ0​​​]=O(logt/tα).
  4. Eq. (11): in the normal–linear case, E∥a^t−a(0)∥2=O(log⁡t/tα)\mathbb E\|\hat a_t - a^{(0)}\|^2 = O(\log t / t^\alpha)E∥a^t​−a(0)∥2=O(logt/tα).
  5. Eqs. (17), (18), (20): the quadratic revenue gap, the local Lipschitz bound on p(a)p(a)p(a), and ∣pt+1−p(a^t)∣≤∣TI(t)∣|p_{t+1} - p(\hat a_t)| \le |\mathrm{TI}(t)|∣pt+1​−p(a^t​)∣≤∣TI(t)∣ for large ttt.
  6. The closing bound E[(pt−popt)2]=O(tα−1+log⁡t/tα)\mathbb E[(p_t - p_{\mathrm{opt}})^2] = O(t^{\alpha-1} + \log t/t^\alpha)E[(pt​−popt​)2]=O(tα−1+logt/tα).

Significance

The theorem shows that a policy that is certainty equivalent almost all of the time, with a single interpretable tuning parameter α\alphaα, attains regret O(T1/2+δ)O(T^{1/2+\delta})O(T1/2+δ) in generalized linear demand models, without distributional assumptions beyond two moments. It explains the role of α\alphaα precisely: TαT^\alphaTα is the cost of exploration and T1−αlog⁡TT^{1-\alpha}\log TT1−αlogT the cost of estimation error. Proposition 2 and Lemma 1 are reusable for any policy that enforces a variance floor on its actions, and (11) is a self-contained rate for least squares under adaptively chosen designs.

The result is proved in the paper, with Proposition 3 delegated to den Boer and Zwart (2012) for general links. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formalization would verify the delegated consistency argument, fix the conditions under which it applies (see Formalization scope), and provide a Lean development of adaptive least squares and quasi-likelihood rates that the related Keskin–Zeevi missions also need.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts are short. The difficulty is Proposition 3. The prices are chosen adaptively from past data, so the regressors are not independent of the noise, and standard rates for (quasi-)likelihood estimates do not apply. The natural argument, bounding ∥a^t−a(0)∥2\|\hat a_t - a^{(0)}\|^2∥a^t​−a(0)∥2 by Qt/λmin⁡(Pt)Q_t/\lambda_{\min}(P_t)Qt​/λmin​(Pt​) with QtQ_tQt​ a self-normalized martingale quadratic form, needs a bound E[Qt]=O(log⁡t)\mathbb E[Q_t] = O(\log t)E[Qt​]=O(logt) that holds in expectation and not only almost surely, as in Lai and Wei (1982). For a non-linear link the MQLE is defined only implicitly, and its existence near a(0)a^{(0)}a(0) has to be shown first, with a moment bound on the last time it fails. That is the random time TρT_\rhoTρ​. Turning almost-sure consistency into a rate in expectation is where most of the work lies.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace CVPricing.Regret. Periods are 1-based. Prices, demands and parameters are real; a=(a0,a1)∈R×Ra = (a_0, a_1) \in \mathbb R \times \mathbb Ra=(a0​,a1​)∈R×R with the Euclidean norm (euclidNorm), not Mathlib's sup norm. The design matrix, sample mean and tVar⁡(p)tt\operatorname{Var}(p)_ttVar(p)t​ are the published Keskin–Zeevi definitions fisherOf, avgPriceOf, infoMetricOf. Every O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is "there is K>0K > 0K>0 such that for all ttt", with KKK quantified after the model data. Rates are stated for t≥2t \ge 2t≥2 and the regret for T≥1T \ge 1T≥1. hhh and vvv are total functions constrained on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). A root of (3) counts only where a^0+a^1pi≥0\hat a_0 + \hat a_1 p_i \ge 0a^0​+a^1​pi​≥0 for every observed pip_ipi​. CVP is a predicate on a realized path that allows every maximizer in (7) and (8).

Disclosed deviations from the page:

  • the model requires a0(0)+a1(0)ph>0a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p_h > 0a0(0)​+a1(0)​ph​>0 (printed: ≥0\ge 0≥0), because in the boundary case the policy's case (c) fires infinitely often and the proof of Theorem 1 does not cover it;
  • (3) is assumed to have at most one root (the page notes roots need not be unique, and the policy cannot select the root nearest a(0)a^{(0)}a(0));
  • the neighbourhood assumption is read as a unique maximizer over [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] lying in (pl,ph)(p_l, p_h)(pl​,ph​);
  • the demand process is given by its conditional mean, its conditional variance and (2), with integrable noise moments, not by a fixed law D(p)D(p)D(p);
  • the initial prices are deterministic.

Corrected slips: Proposition 2 is stated for c≤2−α(p1−p2)2min⁡{1/2,(3α)−1}c \le 2^{-\alpha}(p_1-p_2)^2\min\{1/2,(3\alpha)^{-1}\}c≤2−α(p1​−p2​)2min{1/2,(3α)−1}, because the printed range fails at t=2t=2t=2 (Var⁡(p)2=(p1−p2)2/4\operatorname{Var}(p)_2 = (p_1-p_2)^2/4Var(p)2​=(p1​−p2​)2/4, not /2/2/2). Theorem 1 keeps the printed range. Eq. (20) is stated for pt+1p_{t+1}pt+1​ and for ttt beyond an explicit threshold.

The goal does not assume the variance bound, consistency or (20). The policy contains the variance check and the taboo interval, and the regret is the expectation over the actual price process. A statement that assumed any of these, or that dropped the taboo step, would be trivial or false. Contributions are welcome on adaptive least squares (Sherman–Morrison and determinant-ratio bounds), martingale last-time moment bounds, and the implicit-function step (18).

Selected references

  • A. V. den Boer, B. Zwart, Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing, Management Science 60(3):770–783, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1788
  • A. V. den Boer, B. Zwart, Mean square convergence rates for maximum quasi-likelihood estimators, Stochastic Systems 4(2):375–403, 2014 (cited as 2012 working paper). https://doi.org/10.1214/12-SSY086
  • T. L. Lai, C. Z. Wei, Least squares estimates in stochastic regression models with applications to identification and control of dynamic systems, Annals of Statistics 10(1):154–166, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176345697
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Iterated least squares in multiperiod control, Advances in Applied Mathematics 3(1):50–73, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8858(82)80005-5
  • N. B. Keskin, A. Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies, Operations Research 62(5):1142–1167, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1294
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Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing 2: Certainty Equivalent Pricing Fails to Converge to the Optimal Price with Positive ProbabilityResearch Paper

Why myopic pricing is a problem

A seller who does not know how demand responds to price has to learn the demand curve from its own sales while it is selling. The most natural policy is certainty equivalent pricing (also called myopic pricing or passive learning): after every period, estimate the unknown demand parameters from all data collected so far, and charge the price that would be optimal if the estimates were the truth. It is simple, uses all data, and is what a price manager would do without further thought.

den Boer and Zwart (Management Science 60(3):770–783, 2014) show that this policy can fail. In the linear-demand, Gaussian-noise model, the prices it produces fail to converge to the optimal price with positive probability: the policy is not strongly consistent. The result motivates the paper's main contribution, controlled variance pricing, which adds just enough price dispersion to keep learning (treated in the companion mission of this series).

The phenomenon has a history in adaptive control:

  • 1976. Anderson and Taylor study the linear system yt=a0+a1xt+ϵty_t = a_0 + a_1x_t + \epsilon_tyt​=a0​+a1​xt​+ϵt​ controlled by a certainty equivalent rule that steers yty_tyt​ to a target, and examine by simulation the statistical properties of the least squares estimates it produces (Econometrica 44(6), 1976).
  • 1982. Lai and Robbins (Adv. Appl. Math. 3(1), 1982) prove that there are parameter values for which the certainty equivalent controls converge with positive probability to a value different from the optimal control.
  • 2014. den Boer and Zwart adapt the argument to revenue maximization with linear demand, without the conditions Lai and Robbins place on the initial inputs and the input bounds: any two different initial prices in [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] give the failure with positive probability.

Setting

A monopolist sells one product in periods t=1,2,…t = 1, 2, \dotst=1,2,… at prices ptp_tpt​ from an interval [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] with 0<pl<ph0 < p_l < p_h0<pl​<ph​. The demand in period ttt is

dt=a0(0)+a1(0)pt+et,d_t = a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)} p_t + e_t ,dt​=a0(0)​+a1(0)​pt​+et​,

where e1,e2,…e_1, e_2, \dotse1​,e2​,… are independent N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2) random variables. The parameters are unknown to the seller and satisfy σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0, a0(0)>0a_0^{(0)} > 0a0(0)​>0, a1(0)<0a_1^{(0)} < 0a1(0)​<0, a0(0)+a1(0)ph≥0a_0^{(0)} + a_1^{(0)}p_h \ge 0a0(0)​+a1(0)​ph​≥0. The expected revenue at price ppp is r(p,a0,a1)=p(a0+a1p)r(p, a_0, a_1) = p(a_0 + a_1p)r(p,a0​,a1​)=p(a0​+a1​p), maximized at the optimal price

popt=−a0(0)2a1(0),pl<popt<ph.p_{\mathrm{opt}} = -\frac{a_0^{(0)}}{2a_1^{(0)}}, \qquad p_l < p_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_h .popt​=−2a1(0)​a0(0)​​,pl​<popt​<ph​.

Certainty equivalent pricing charges two different initial prices p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​ in [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​]. After t≥2t \ge 2t≥2 periods it computes the least squares estimates a^t=(a^0t,a^1t)\hat a_t = (\hat a_{0t}, \hat a_{1t})a^t​=(a^0t​,a^1t​), the solution of the normal equations ∑i≤t(1,pi)T(di−a^0t−a^1tpi)=0\sum_{i \le t}(1, p_i)^{\mathsf T}(d_i - \hat a_{0t} - \hat a_{1t}p_i) = 0∑i≤t​(1,pi​)T(di​−a^0t​−a^1t​pi​)=0, and charges

pt+1=arg⁡max⁡p∈[pl,ph]p (a^0t+a^1tp),p_{t+1} = \arg\max_{p \in [p_l, p_h]} p\,(\hat a_{0t} + \hat a_{1t}p),pt+1​=argp∈[pl​,ph​]max​p(a^0t​+a^1t​p),

with pt+1=php_{t+1} = p_hpt+1​=ph​ when the estimated slope a^1t\hat a_{1t}a^1t​ is nonnegative.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

P(pt↛popt)>0.P\big(p_t \not\to p_{\mathrm{opt}}\big) > 0 .P(pt​→popt​)>0.

The goal states only the failure of convergence, for every admissible parameter and every pair of different initial prices; it does not fix where the prices go.

Stronger: the prices stick at the boundary

P(pt=ph for all t≥3)>0.P\big(p_t = p_h \ \text{for all } t \ge 3\big) > 0 .P(pt​=ph​ for all t≥3)>0.

This is what the paper's argument establishes; since popt<php_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_hpopt​<ph​ it implies the goal.

Milestones

The milestones are the displayed steps of the appendix proof, in attack order: the determinant of the coefficient matrix of the linear system (12); the bound P(sup⁡t≥3∣(t−2)−1∑i=3tei∣>ϵ)≤8σ2ϵ−2<1P(\sup_{t \ge 3}|(t-2)^{-1}\sum_{i=3}^t e_i| > \epsilon) \le 8\sigma^2\epsilon^{-2} < 1P(supt≥3​∣(t−2)−1∑i=3t​ei​∣>ϵ)≤8σ2ϵ−2<1 for ϵ>8 σ\epsilon > \sqrt 8\,\sigmaϵ>8​σ; positivity of the probability of an explicit event AδA_\deltaAδ​ on the noise for large δ\deltaδ; the case t=2t = 2t=2 (the first fitted line pushes p3p_3p3​ to php_hph​); the representation a^t−a(0)=(eˉt−pˉtCt/Vt, Ct/Vt)\hat a_t - a^{(0)} = (\bar e_t - \bar p_tC_t/V_t,\ C_t/V_t)a^t​−a(0)=(eˉt​−pˉ​t​Ct​/Vt​, Ct​/Vt​) of the least squares error; recursive and closed forms of VtV_tVt​ and CtC_tCt​; and the deterministic induction that every noise path in AδA_\deltaAδ​ keeps the price at php_hph​ forever.

Significance

The result is the standard counterexample to certainty equivalence in dynamic pricing. It shows that estimation and optimization cannot be separated naively: a policy that always exploits its current estimate can lock itself into a price at which the data no longer move the estimate enough to correct it. Every later policy in this literature that forces exploration (controlled variance pricing, semi-myopic policies, constrained iterated least squares) is designed against this failure, and its necessity is argued by pointing to results of this kind.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it adds:

  • a verified pathwise analysis of the least squares recursion along a price path, reusable for other proofs about adaptive estimation with two parameters;
  • a verified maximal bound for running means of i.i.d. Gaussian noise, of the kind used in many consistency proofs;
  • a clean probabilistic statement of the failure, against which consistency results for exploration policies can later be contrasted.

Difficulty

The obvious heuristic, "with positive probability the first two observations are so noisy that the fitted slope is wrong", is not enough: one bad estimate is corrected by later data unless the policy stops generating informative data. The proof has to control the whole infinite future. It does so by showing that on a single event, defined through the first two noise values and a uniform bound on all later running means, the price stays at php_hph​ forever, which requires the closed form of the least squares estimate along a price path that is constant from period 3 on. That event involves infinitely many noise variables, so its probability is positive only through a maximal inequality, and independence between (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) and the later noise. A second subtlety is the choice of constants: the size of the band δ\deltaδ enters the conditions on (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​), so the order in which δ\deltaδ and the set of admissible (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) are chosen matters (the printed proof picks them in a circular order; a non-circular choice exists).

Formalization scope

  • Model. CVPricing.CertEquiv.Model bundles pl,ph,a0(0),a1(0),σp_l, p_h, a_0^{(0)}, a_1^{(0)}, \sigmapl​,ph​,a0(0)​,a1(0)​,σ with the standing assumptions of §2 as fields, including pl<popt<php_l < p_{\mathrm{opt}} < p_hpl​<popt​<ph​ (the paper's neighbourhood assumption specialized to linear demand). The noise is the referenced published definition RobustBooking.Shared.GaussianNoise (measurable, mutually independent, each N(0,σ2)N(0, \sigma^2)N(0,σ2)); its Lean index kkk is period k+1k+1k+1, so the paper's eie_iei​ is ε (i - 1).
  • Policy. cePrice is a deterministic recursion on a noise path, so the random price process is obtained by evaluating it at ω\omegaω. Periods are 1-based. The least squares estimate is the referenced KeskinZeevi.SufficientConditions.lsEstimateOf, the solution of the normal equations (4), unique whenever p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​. The certainty equivalent rule is the projection of −a^0t/(2a^1t)-\hat a_{0t}/(2\hat a_{1t})−a^0t​/(2a^1t​) onto [pl,ph][p_l, p_h][pl​,ph​] when a^1t<0\hat a_{1t} < 0a^1t​<0, and php_hph​ when a^1t≥0\hat a_{1t} \ge 0a^1t​≥0; the latter is the convention the paper's proof adopts for wrong-signed estimates.
  • Corrected slips. The definition of the event AAA is printed with "δ∣eˉt∣≤δ\delta|\bar e_t| \le \deltaδ∣eˉt​∣≤δ" (read ∣eˉt∣≤δ|\bar e_t| \le \delta∣eˉt​∣≤δ) and with its second line missing a factor δ\deltaδ on the term (2ph−p1−p2)(2p_h - p_1 - p_2)(2ph​−p1​−p2​); both are restored as in (12) and the last display of the proof. The intercept of the first fitted line is printed without a0(0)a_0^{(0)}a0(0)​; the correct intercept is stated, and the printed condition remains sufficient for p3=php_3 = p_hp3​=ph​.
  • WLOG. The steps of the proof assume p1<p2p_1 < p_2p1​<p2​ and are stated under that ordering; the goal and the stronger statement cover p1≠p2p_1 \ne p_2p1​=p2​.
  • No trivialization. The goal is a statement about the Gaussian law of the noise: a theorem that exhibits one bad noise path, or that assumes P(A)>0P(A) > 0P(A)>0, does not prove it. The event in the goal is a set of outcomes whose measurability is not asserted.
  • Welcome contributions. Kolmogorov's maximal inequality for sums of independent square-integrable variables; least squares identities for two-parameter regression; the independence argument separating (e1,e2)(e_1, e_2)(e1​,e2​) from the later noise.

Selected references

  • A. V. den Boer, B. Zwart, Simultaneously Learning and Optimizing Using Controlled Variance Pricing, Management Science 60(3):770–783, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2013.1788
  • T. L. Lai, H. Robbins, Iterated least squares in multiperiod control, Advances in Applied Mathematics 3(1):50–73, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0196-8858(82)80005-5
  • T. W. Anderson, J. B. Taylor, Some experimental results on the statistical properties of least squares estimates in control problems, Econometrica 44(6):1289–1302, 1976. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914261
  • Y. S. Chow, H. Teicher, Probability Theory: Independence, Interchangeability, Martingales, 3rd ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1950-7
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Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems 1: Finite-Sample Confidence Region for the Mean and CovarianceResearch Paper

Motivation

An optimization model often needs a probability distribution for an uncertain cost or demand, while a practitioner has only a finite sample from that distribution. Replacing the distribution by the empirical one can hide uncertainty in its estimated mean and covariance. Delage and Ye use a finite-sample confidence region for these two moments to justify a distributional ambiguity set in data-driven stochastic programming Delage and Ye, 2010. The present mission concerns the confidence region itself: it asks how far the population moments can be from the sample estimates when the normalized random vector has bounded support.

The source for every theorem index and page number here is the authors' draft dated 20 February 2008, not an independently checked pagination of the published article. Its §4 starts from independent observations and Assumption 4, then obtains a sample-mean bound, a covariance bound around the known mean, and finally the joint bound for estimates computed entirely from the sample.

Setting

Let ξ∈Rm\xi\in\mathbb R^mξ∈Rm have distribution PPP, mean μ=EP[ξ]\mu=\mathbb E_P[\xi]μ=EP​[ξ], and covariance Σ=EP[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]\Sigma=\mathbb E_P[(\xi-\mu)(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T]Σ=EP​[(ξ−μ)(ξ−μ)T]. Assume Σ\SigmaΣ is positive definite. For M≥1M\ge1M≥1 independent observations ξ1,…,ξM\xi_1,\ldots,\xi_Mξ1​,…,ξM​, the empirical mean and empirical covariance in this section are

μ^=1M∑i=1Mξi,Σ^=1M∑i=1M(ξi−μ^)(ξi−μ^)T.\widehat\mu=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M\xi_i,\qquad \widehat\Sigma=\frac1M\sum_{i=1}^M(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)(\xi_i-\widehat\mu)^\mathsf T.μ​=M1​i=1∑M​ξi​,Σ=M1​i=1∑M​(ξi​−μ​)(ξi​−μ​)T.

The divisor is MMM, including for the covariance; the paper's earlier discussion of an unbiased estimator with divisor M−1M-1M−1 does not govern §4. When the true mean is known, write Σ^(μ)=M−1∑i(ξi−μ)(ξi−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=M^{-1}\sum_i(\xi_i-\mu)(\xi_i-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=M−1∑i​(ξi​−μ)(ξi​−μ)T. Matrix order A⪯BA\preceq BA⪯B means B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite. The squared Mahalanobis distance of a vector vvv is vTΣ−1vv^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}vvTΣ−1v.

Assumption 4 bounds the normalized observations: for some R≥0R\ge0R≥0, (ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2(\xi-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\xi-\mu)\le R^2(ξ−μ)TΣ−1(ξ−μ)≤R2 with probability one. Equivalently, ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ)\zeta=\Sigma^{-1/2}(\xi-\mu)ζ=Σ−1/2(ξ−μ) lies almost surely in a Euclidean ball of radius RRR; it has mean zero and covariance III. The sample law is PMP^MPM, the product measure of MMM identical copies. These choices make the probability in each target an assertion about genuinely independent observations.

Formalization targets

Simultaneous confidence region

For 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1, set

α(t)=R2M(1−mR4+log⁡(1/t)),β(t)=R2M(2+2log⁡(1/t))2.\alpha(t)=\frac{R^2}{\sqrt M}\left(\sqrt{1-\frac m{R^4}}+\sqrt{\log(1/t)}\right),\qquad \beta(t)=\frac{R^2}{M}\left(2+\sqrt{2\log(1/t)}\right)^2.α(t)=M​R2​(1−R4m​​+log(1/t)​),β(t)=MR2​(2+2log(1/t)​)2.

Theorem 2 is the goal. Write a=α(δ/4)a=\alpha(\delta/4)a=α(δ/4) and b=β(δ/2)b=\beta(\delta/2)b=β(δ/2), and assume a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1. The target is the simultaneous event

(μ^−μ)TΣ−1(μ^−μ)≤b,Σ⪯Σ^1−a−b,Σ^1+a⪯Σ(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf T\Sigma^{-1}(\widehat\mu-\mu)\le b, \qquad \Sigma\preceq\frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1-a-b}, \qquad \frac{\widehat\Sigma}{1+a}\preceq\Sigma(μ​−μ)TΣ−1(μ​−μ)≤b,Σ⪯1−a−bΣ​,1+aΣ​⪯Σ

with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. The last denominator is a correction: printed (12c) says 1−a1-a1−a, while the authors' union-bound display on draft p. 13 says 1+a1+a1+a. The printed version fails, for example, for symmetric ±1\pm1±1 observations, whose sample covariance is 1−μ^21-\widehat\mu^21−μ​2 and for which its claimed lower bound would require an implausibly large sample-mean square. The proof's displayed bound gives the stated 1+a1+a1+a draft pp. 13–14.

Supporting results

Lemma 2 bounds the normalized sample mean. Corollary 1 turns it into the Mahalanobis bound for μ^−μ\widehat\mu-\muμ​−μ. Lemma 3 gives a two-sided matrix bound for M−1∑iζiζiTM^{-1}\sum_i\zeta_i\zeta_i^\mathsf TM−1∑i​ζi​ζiT​; Corollary 2 transfers that bound to Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ). A separate theorem item states the centring identity Σ^(μ)=Σ^+(μ^−μ)(μ^−μ)T\widehat\Sigma(\mu)=\widehat\Sigma+(\widehat\mu-\mu)(\widehat\mu-\mu)^\mathsf TΣ(μ)=Σ+(μ​−μ)(μ​−μ)T. The final milestone is the rank-one matrix inequality used in Theorem 2's proof. Their statements follow the draft's §4.1–4.2.

Significance

The joint region places both true moments inside explicit data-dependent matrix inequalities at a chosen confidence level. That is the statistical input for the paper's later moment-based distributional uncertainty sets. The result is known in the source; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its corrected statement and its supporting concentration and matrix results. The Lean items are currently open theorem statements, so a successful draft compilation does not constitute formal verification of the inequalities.

Related platform results include a proved two-sided constant-bound McDiarmid inequality (UnderstandingML.mcdiarmid_inequality_pi) and an open per-coordinate upper-tail version (StabGen.Uniform.mcdiarmid_inequality). Neither is identical to the cited Theorem 1 of this draft, so the milestone list starts with the paper's Lemma 2 and does not restate Theorem 1.

Difficulty

The known-mean covariance estimate is a sum of outer products of normalized observations. Controlling its largest and smallest eigenvalues together requires concentration of a matrix-valued statistic, rather than a separate scalar bound for each entry. Once the true mean is replaced by μ^\widehat\muμ​, the covariance changes by a rank-one matrix; the mean bound must control that correction in Loewner order. A direct replacement of Σ^(μ)\widehat\Sigma(\mu)Σ(μ) by Σ^\widehat\SigmaΣ therefore does not preserve both sides of Corollary 2 automatically.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin m → ℝ, and matrices are real Fin m × Fin m matrices. The Euclidean squared length is a dot product; Lean's generic norm on functions is a supremum norm and is not used for it. The Loewner order is (B - A).PosSemidef. The distribution has a probability measure and coordinatewise finite L2L^2L2 moments, so its real-valued mean and covariance integrals are well defined. The true covariance is positive definite, reflecting the section's nonsingularity assumption. Samples have the product law PMP^MPM. The chapter's normalized case records zero mean, identity covariance, and the almost-sure ball bound.

Every statistical result assumes 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1; the logarithms and confidence levels are then in their intended domain. Positive MMM rules out division by zero in empirical averages. Lemma 3 carries the paper's explicit sample-size threshold, and the goal reads “MMM large enough” as a+b<1a+b<1a+b<1, which keeps the upper covariance denominator positive. The expression under the other square root is nonnegative in every satisfiable positive-dimensional normalized setting, because E∥ζ∥22=m≤R2\mathbb E\|\zeta\|_2^2=m\le R^2E∥ζ∥22​=m≤R2. It is not an added assumption. The probability conclusions use ≥1−δ\ge1-\delta≥1−δ, which is what the paper's proofs show despite the phrase “greater than.”

The goal assumes the source's distributional and support conditions, not the probability conclusions of its supporting corollaries. This prevents a vacuous route that merely postulates the desired confidence event. A complete proof will need reusable product-measure concentration facts, moment and matrix algebra, and a positive-definite quadratic-form bridge. Contributions to those components and to each milestone are in scope. Corollary 3's data-derived radius is excluded because the draft's conditioning argument does not establish its claimed confidence level. Corollary 4 as a probability statement, Theorem 3, and Corollary 5 depend on it; Remark 2 concerns a separate Gaussian eigenvalue density.

Selected references

  • Erick Delage and Yinyu Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3), 595–612, 2010; source used here: authors' draft of 20 February 2008. DOI.
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