Investment under the prospect of a breakthrough
Real-options theory, as in Dixit and Pindyck (1994), asks when a firm should sink a cost into a project whose value follows a diffusion. The standard answer invests the first time the state exceeds a threshold, so investment is procyclical. Décamps, Gensbittel and Mariotti (2021) add a feature of research-intensive industries: a better technology arrives when market conditions first exceed an unknown level. Waiting then carries an option on the breakthrough, and the firm's stopping rule changes qualitatively. The firm invests in the available technology after conditions have fallen enough from a maximum, that is, in busts.
The problem also sits in the line of optimal stopping problems for the running maximum of a diffusion, from Shepp and Shiryaev (1993) and Peskir (1998). There a free boundary is selected by a growth condition or by the maximality principle. Here neither applies, and a limit condition selects it.
Setting
Let X be a one-dimensional diffusion on the interval I=(α,β), −∞≤α<β≤∞, solving
dXt=μ(Xt)dt+σ(Xt)dWt,
with μ,σ continuous, σ>0 on I, and natural endpoints. Fix a discount rate r>0. A threshold Y with density f>0 on I is independent of X. The decision maker observes X only and picks a stopping time τ of the right-continuous filtration of X. If τ comes before τX≥Y=inf{t:Xt≥Y}, the reward is e−rτR(Xτ). Otherwise it is e−rτX≥YG(XτX≥Y). The value Vˉ(x) is the supremum over τ of the expected reward, and rewards at τ=∞ are 0.
Assumptions A1–A8 bound the growth of R,G, give LR−rR a single sign change, make G dominate the stand-alone value VR, and make LG−rG≤0, where L is the generator of X. The threshold xR is the point with {VR=R}=[xR,β).
With the running maximum Mt=m∨sups≤tXs, Proposition 1 gives Vˉ(x)=V(x,x)+F(x)G(x), where
V(x,m)=τsupEx,m[[1−F(Mτ)]e−rτR(Xτ)+∫0τe−rtG(Mt)f(Mt)dMt]
on J={(x,m)∈I2:m≥x} and F is the distribution function of Y. The variational system (VS) seeks a level m, a boundary b and a function W with b(m)=xR, xR≤b(m)<m, b(m)→β; LW−rW=0 off the stopping region S={m≤m, xR≤x≤b(m)}; value matching and smooth fit along b; the Neumann condition ∂mW(m,m)=−f(m)G(m) at the diagonal; and W→0 at α.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 1
For every model satisfying A1–A8 and every threshold xR, (VS) has a unique solution (m,b,W) in the class (xR,β)×C1([m,β))×V. Moreover b is strictly increasing, W=V, and
τb=inf{t≥0:Mt≥m, xR≤Xt≤b(Mt)}
is optimal. The goal keeps μ,σ,R,G,f general: no geometric Brownian motion, no Lipschitz coefficients, no finite endpoints.
Milestones
In proof order: the classical facts (12)–(18); the stand-alone problem and Lemma 1; the change of variables, Lemma 2; Proposition 1; the ODE analysis, Lemmas 3–6; the explicit Wb, Lemma 7 and Proposition 2; the verification bounds, Lemmas 8–9 and Corollaries 1–2; superharmonicity, Lemma 10; Lemma 11; and Proposition 3.
Significance
The result gives a complete description of investment under the threat of obsolescence, including the countercyclical form of the optimal rule. It yields comparative statics that the paper develops in §9, such as the behaviour of the value in m.
The theorem is proved on paper and, as of this mission, has no machine-checked proof. The mission also adds general assets to the platform: a diffusion on an interval with natural endpoints, and a stopping problem with an integral against the running maximum. Its xR needs a correction. The paper says that A3 alone gives a threshold, which fails for R<0 (geometric Brownian motion with r=2 and R(x)=−x2/(1+x6) has VR≡0). A threshold exists exactly when R>0 somewhere, so the goal assumes one, and the milestone on the stand-alone problem proves the equivalence.
Difficulty
The obvious route is to guess the boundary, solve its ODE from a starting point, and verify. It fails at the first step, because the ODE b′=E(b,m) has a vector field that explodes at the diagonal and has no continuous extension there, so Cauchy–Lipschitz gives no global solution. The endpoint m is not given either: the maximality principle does not apply, and the set of admissible endpoints is first obtained only as a nonempty compact interval, by a retraction argument of Ważewski type. Uniqueness of the solution of (VS) then comes only from the verification. Verification needs Itô's formula across a kink along a curve, since W is not C1 on the segment Jm.
Formalization scope
The canonical space is C([0,∞),I) with endpoints in EReal, and X is the coordinate process. Stopping times are those of the right-continuous natural filtration, not augmented, valued in WithTop ℝ≥0. The laws (Px) are weak solutions of the SDE on the canonical space, with the Itô integral given by the published EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral. Natural endpoints are the published Feller tests EthierKurtz.diffusionBoundaryTests, both infinite. Rewards at τ=∞ follow Footnote 2 of the paper. The measure dM is the Stieltjes measure of the continuous nondecreasing path.
C1 and C2,1 on non-open sets are read as slice derivatives with continuous extensions. "Piecewise C2" is read as C2 off a set with no accumulation point in I. Uniqueness in the goal is on [m,β) for b and on J for W, and the solution predicate does not include strict monotonicity. Real suprema and Bochner integrals have junk values, so V is pinned by IsLUB in the goal and by the integrability clause of Proposition 1. A solution that omits uniqueness, or that adds monotonicity to the class, would be a weaker theorem.
A complete development needs the Feller classification, the strong Markov property, the hitting-time transform, Itô's formula for C2,1 functions with a kink along a monotone curve, and a retraction argument for ODEs with a singular boundary. The first four are reusable. Contributions on any of them, or on the purely analytical Lemmas 3–9, are welcome. Appendix C's verification of the example is not part of this mission.
Selected references
- J.-P. Décamps, F. Gensbittel, T. Mariotti, Investment Timing and Technological Breakthroughs, arXiv:2106.05112v1, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.05112
- A. Dixit, R. Pindyck, Investment under Uncertainty, Princeton University Press, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830176
- G. Peskir, Optimal stopping of the maximum process: the maximality principle, Annals of Probability 26, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1022855875
- L. Shepp, A. Shiryaev, The Russian option: reduced regret, Annals of Applied Probability 3, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005355
- S. Dayanik, I. Karatzas, On the optimal stopping problem for one-dimensional diffusions, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 107, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4149(03)00076-0
- G. Peskir, A change-of-variable formula with local time on curves, Journal of Theoretical Probability 18, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10959-005-3517-6