Actuarial Mathematics IX: Prospective Term Insurance ReservesTextbook
Motivation and actuarial context
A net premium is usually set at policy inception. As an insured life survives and the remaining insurance term shortens, the expected future claim outgo and future premium income change. A prospective policy value measures the expected present value of the insurer's future loss on a policy that is still in force at the valuation date. This is the natural next stage after the equivalence principle of Actuarial Mathematics VIII. Dickson, Hardy and Waters provide the insurer's future-loss definition and the annual-cashflow policy-value framework in Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks (2009), Chapter 7, §§7.3.1–7.3.3 [1]. Promislow covers both deterministic reserve recursions and the stochastic approach to reserves [2].
This mission formalises a finite-term life-assurance reserve at an integer valuation duration. Its central feature is survival conditioning: the reserve is a liability per surviving in-force policy, rather than the unconditional present value of the original contract. Separating these quantities avoids a common modelling error in stochastic policy values.
Model, contract timing and in-force event
Let be measurable curtate future lifetime under a probability measure . Let denote the term, the valuation duration, a fixed per-period discount factor, the death benefit and the annual level premium.
Premiums are payable in advance at integer times while the life is alive. The benefit, if payable, occurs at the end of the year of death, at date . Only cashflows on or after duration enter the reserve, with discount exponents measured from .
The in-force survival event is
When , conditioning on this event gives the valuation basis for policies in force at . A statement about reserves conditional on survival must not silently assume that .
Future benefit, premium and loss values
The remaining unit term-assurance benefit present value is
The remaining premium-annuity present value is
The realised future net loss is therefore
These finite expressions make it explicit whether a premium due at the valuation instant is included. Here is immediately before the premium at time , consistent with an annual premium payable in advance. The choice is essential when comparing reserve formulas across valuation conventions.
At the in-force event is certain. At or after , both remaining cashflow components vanish because the contract's coverage and premium period have ended.
Prospective reserve and normalisation
For positive survival probability, the prospective term-policy reserve per in-force policy is
The second equality holds because the model defines the realised future loss as zero outside . It is a conditional-event expectation, rather than an unrestricted claim about conditional expectation with respect to an arbitrary sigma-algebra. The formal quotient definition makes the denominator explicit, and the principal reserve interpretation and capstone theorem retain as a hypothesis.
Linearity separates the reserve into benefit and premium components:
In particular, multiplying both cashflow amounts by gives
The finite payment period ensures integrability for any fixed real discount factor. When studying economic reserve properties, a nonnegative or positive discount factor can be imposed separately. No assumption of independence between survival indicators, benefits and premiums is made.
Boundary cases and formalisation strategy
The principal boundary checks are survival at inception, ; exhaustion of cover at ; finite sums with ; and zero in-force probability. The total real-valued quotient happens to evaluate to zero when both its numerator and denominator are zero in Lean, but this does not create an actuarially meaningful conditional reserve for an impossible in-force event. The descriptive and main conditional theorems are explicitly scoped to positive probability.
Five definitions provide the in-force event, future benefit PV, future premium PV, future loss PV and the prospective reserve. Supporting theorems develop survival-event measurability, cashflow boundaries, nonnegativity where applicable, integrability, inception valuation, benefit–premium decomposition and scaling. The capstone combines the survival-normalised expected-loss identity, valuation decomposition and scaling.
The formalisation is deliberately self-contained at the level of future cashflow definitions so the owner Draft does not depend on the unconfirmed publication of any Mission VIII declarations. The intended later bridge is an exact identity between the duration-zero future loss and the loss-at-issue formula from Mission VIII, once those definitions are published. All theorems are proposed proof targets, not assertions of accepted proofs.
Gerber [4, §§6.3 and 6.5] provides an independent treatment of net premium reserves and annual reserve recursions. Its equation (6.5.6) expresses a whole-life net reserve through the premium difference, illustrating the same prospective viewpoint but not asserting the more general term-reserve theorem of this mission.
References
[1] Dickson, David C. M., Hardy, Mary R. and Waters, Howard R. (2009), Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks, first edition, Chapter 7, Policy Values, Cambridge University Press. Relevant sections: §7.3.1 (future loss), §7.3.2 (policy values for annual cashflows) and §7.3.3 (recursive policy values), printed pages 176–195.
[2] Promislow, S. David (2015), Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics, third edition, Wiley, ISBN 9781118782460. In particular §6.3 (reserve recursion) and §15.5 (stochastic reserves).
[3] Dickson, Hardy and Waters (2009), Chapter 6, §6.5.1, equation (6.1), on the equivalence principle at policy inception, publisher book record.
[4] Gerber, Hans U. (1997), Life Insurance Mathematics, third edition, Springer, Chapter 6, Net Premium Reserves, §6.3 and §6.5, including the premium-difference reserve formula (6.5.6).