Motivation
Firms that disclose a product carbon footprint can lower it in two ways: by cutting the emissions they control (better materials, cleaner processes), which costs money up front, or by buying carbon offsets from a third party at a constant price per tonne. Offsets have become cheap and widely available, and the business press has repeatedly argued that cheaper offsets let firms substitute away from costly abatement (The Wall Street Journal 2008, Forbes 2020 and The Washington Post 2020, as cited by Gao and Souza, p. 14). Whether that substitution actually happens matters for climate policy: if a lower offset price always raises a firm's own emissions, cheap offsets undercut real abatement.
Gao and Souza, Carbon Offsetting with Eco-Conscious Consumers (Management Science, 2022, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.4293), study this question in a model where demand responds to the disclosed footprint. Their Proposition 1 shows that the conventional intuition can fail in both directions of preference correlation: a cheaper offset can make the firm cut its controllable emissions. This mission formalizes that proposition together with the lemmas of its proof.
Setting
A firm sells to m>0 consumers. It chooses a controllable emission level e∈[0,eˉ] per unit, which determines a unit cost c(e) and a fixed cost f(e), with c′<0, c′′>0, f′<0, f′′>0 on [0,eˉ] and f(eˉ)=0. Each unit also carries uncontrollable emissions eo≥0. At the offset price g>0 the firm offsets t∈[0,e+eo] units, and discloses the footprint E=e+eo−t.
A consumer with valuation V≥0 and environmental disutility Ξ gets utility u=V−ΞE−p at the price p, and buys if and only if u≥0. A share α∈[0,1] of consumers is eco-conscious (Ξ=ξ>0); the rest are eco-unconscious (Ξ=0). A share βc of eco-conscious and βu of eco-unconscious consumers have the high valuation vh; the others have vl, with 0≤vl, c(eˉ)<vl<vh. The demand is the sum of the four segment masses whose utility is nonnegative, and the firm's profit is
π(p,e,t∣g)=(p−c(e)−gt)d(p,e,t)−f(e).
A best response to g is a feasible (p,e,t) maximizing π(⋅∣g).
Two special cases carry the analysis: Case N (βu=1, negative correlation between caring about function and caring about the environment) and Case P (βc=1, positive correlation). For x≥0, the segment-optimal emission ex,a is the maximizer over [0,eˉ] of −(c(e)+xe)am−f(e): the abatement level a firm chooses when it serves a segment of size a and pays x per unit of footprint. The proof compares the profit of covering the whole market at vl with that of serving only high-value consumers at vh; their difference h(g) has a least zero X, the offset price at which the firm switches.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 1
In Case N, with α>0, βc<B2=(vh−c(eˉ)vl−c(eˉ)−1+α)/α, a sign change of h at its least zero X<ξ, and condition (1) of the proof at X, there are offset prices
0<g1<g2witht∗(gi)>0,e∗(g1)≤e∗(g2),du∗(g1)=du∗(g2),dc∗(g1)>dc∗(g2),
for every pair of best responses (which exist), with strict emissions inequality when eX,1<eˉ and eX,a>0. In Case P the analogue holds with vh−vl<ξeo, βu<B~2, dc∗(g1)=dc∗(g2) and du∗(g1)>du∗(g2).
Milestones
- ex,a exists, is unique and solves the first-order condition when it is interior (Online Supplement p. 1).
- Lemma VI1: ex,a is weakly decreasing in x and in a, plus its strict version for a<1.
- In each case, the reduction of the firm's problem to two candidate profiles when offsets are bought.
- h(0)>0⟺βc<B2, and existence of X (Case N); βu<B~2⇒h(0)>0 and existence of X (Case P).
- The switch of best responses across X, in each case.
- Condition (1) is an upper set in βc (Case N) and in βu (Case P): the thresholds B1, B~1.
Significance
Proposition 1 identifies a mechanism by which cheaper offsets complement, rather than substitute for, controllable abatement. In Case N a lower offset price lets the firm lower its footprint enough to attract low-value eco-conscious consumers; in Case P it lets the firm price down to the low-value eco-unconscious consumers while keeping eco-conscious buyers. In both cases the served volume grows, and because abatement is a fixed cost, the larger volume makes deeper abatement worthwhile (economies of scale). The paper builds its NGO-pricing results (Propositions 2 and 4) on this subgame analysis.
The result is proved in the paper by a case analysis and derivative arguments; it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a complete, checked treatment of a discontinuous best response in a pricing model with threshold demand, and it makes several steps of the published proof precise: where the paper asserts ∂h/∂g∣g=X<0 and "X<G" without proof, the formal statements carry them as disclosed hypotheses, and the formalization of "βc∈(B1,B2) for some B1,B2" pins both thresholds down.
Difficulty
The best response is not a continuous function of g: demand is a step function of price and footprint, so the firm's problem splits into six regimes (Online Supplement I1), and the optimal price jumps between vl, vh and the footprint-adjusted prices. Comparative statics by differentiating first-order conditions, the method of the paper's lemmas, applies only within a regime. The obvious argument, "e∗ is decreasing in g by Lemma VI1", is wrong across the switch at X: there the served segment shrinks, and Lemma VI1's monotonicity in the segment size works against its monotonicity in the price. Showing that the jump in segment size dominates requires controlling the best response on both sides of X, including uniqueness of the best response and the behaviour of ex,a at the ends of [0,eˉ] where the first-order condition fails.
Formalization scope
All quantities are real. The model is one definition file, EcoOffset.Subgame.Model, with a structure Params of primitives and a predicate Params.Standing bundling the standing assumptions of §3: m,eˉ,ξ>0, eo≥0, α,βc,βu∈[0,1], 0≤vl, c(eˉ)<vl<vh, c,f of class C2 on R with the sign conditions on c′,c′′,f′,f′′ on the closed interval [0,eˉ], and f(eˉ)=0. Prices range over all of R; consumers buy at zero utility. A best response is a predicate, never a chosen function, and the goal quantifies over every best response at g1 and g2 and asserts that one exists. ex,a is defined as the maximizer, not through the paper's root of the first-order condition (which does not exist at x=0). The switching price X is a variable pinned by h(X)=0 and h>0 on [0,X).
Added hypotheses relative to the page, all disclosed in the statements: X<ξ (the proof's unproved "X<G"; numerical Case N instances violate it); a sign change of h at X (the proof's unproved ∂h/∂g∣g=X<0); α>0 in Case N and α<1 in Case P (divisions in B2, B~2); eo>0 for the existence of X in Case N; explicit interiority conditions in place of "if eˉ is large enough".
Stating the goal about the two named profiles (for example eg1,1≤eg2,a) would reduce it to Lemma VI1 plus algebra and is ruled out: the goal is about best responses of the full profit maximization. The paper's "for some B1,B2≥0" is likewise not used, since B1=B2 would make it vacuous.
A complete development needs: existence, uniqueness and continuity in x of the maximizer of a strictly concave function on an interval (Berge's maximum theorem in one dimension); monotone comparative statics for ex,a; the case analysis of the step-function demand; and intermediate-value arguments for X. The first two are reusable for any one-dimensional parametric optimization. Proofs of individual milestones, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.
Selected references