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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items 5: Bundling Is Optimal for Two I.I.D. Goods Whose Density on [a, ∞) Satisfies x f′(x) + (3/2) f(x) ≤ 0Research Paper

Motivation

A seller with several goods and a single buyer of unknown, additive valuation faces the multi-dimensional revenue maximization problem. For one good the answer is classical: by Myerson's theorem (Myerson 1981) a single posted price is optimal. For two or more goods no such simplification exists in general: optimal mechanisms may randomize, may offer menus of lotteries, and are rarely known in closed form. Selling the grand bundle at one price is the simplest multi-good mechanism, and it is used widely in practice.

Hart and Nisan (arXiv:1204.1846, J. Econ. Theory 2017) quantify how much revenue simple mechanisms lose. Most of their results are approximation bounds. Section 7.2 of the paper also contains an exact result: for two independent and identically distributed goods whose density decays fast enough, in the sense of a differential inequality, bundling is exactly optimal. This mission formalizes that theorem, Theorem 16, and the steps of its proof in Appendix A.6.

Timeline. Manelli and Vincent (2006) gave conditions under which a bundled mechanism is optimal for a multiple-good monopolist. Hart and Nisan's preprint (2012, revised 2017) proved Theorem 16 with the condition xf′(x)+32f(x)≤0x f'(x) + \tfrac32 f(x) \le 0xf′(x)+23​f(x)≤0. Daskalakis, Deckelbaum and Tzamos (2017) later gave a strong duality theory for the multiple-good monopolist, based on optimal transport.

Setting

There are two goods and one buyer. A valuation is a vector x=(y,z)∈R+2x = (y, z) \in \mathbb{R}^2_+x=(y,z)∈R+2​. The buyer's values Y,ZY, ZY,Z are i.i.d. with a one-good law FFF on R+\mathbb{R}_+R+​.

A mechanism μ=(q,s)\mu = (q, s)μ=(q,s) assigns to each reported valuation xxx an allocation vector q(x)∈[0,1]2q(x) \in [0,1]^2q(x)∈[0,1]2 (qi(x)q_i(x)qi​(x) is the probability that good iii is sold) and a payment s(x)∈Rs(x) \in \mathbb{R}s(x)∈R. The buyer's payoff is b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x)b(x) = q(x)\cdot x - s(x)b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x). The mechanism is

  • incentive compatible (IC) if b(x)≥q(x~)⋅x−s(x~)b(x) \ge q(\tilde x)\cdot x - s(\tilde x)b(x)≥q(x~)⋅x−s(x~) for all x,x~∈R+2x, \tilde x \in \mathbb{R}^2_+x,x~∈R+2​;
  • individually rational (IR) if b(x)≥0b(x) \ge 0b(x)≥0 for all xxx;
  • NPT (no positive transfer) if s≥0s \ge 0s≥0.

The revenue of μ\muμ is R(μ;X)=E[s(X)]R(\mu; X) = \mathbb{E}[s(X)]R(μ;X)=E[s(X)], and the optimal revenue is Rev(X)=sup⁡R(μ;X)\mathrm{Rev}(X) = \sup R(\mu; X)Rev(X)=supR(μ;X) over all IC and IR mechanisms. The bundled revenue is BRev(X)=Rev(Y+Z)\mathrm{BRev}(X) = \mathrm{Rev}(Y + Z)BRev(X)=Rev(Y+Z), the optimal revenue from selling the bundle as a single good.

A two-good mechanism is symmetric if q1(y,z)=q2(z,y)q_1(y,z) = q_2(z,y)q1​(y,z)=q2​(z,y) and s(y,z)=s(z,y)s(y,z) = s(z,y)s(y,z)=s(z,y). For a level a≥0a \ge 0a≥0, the bundled majorant μ^=(q^,s^)\hat\mu = (\hat q, \hat s)μ^​=(q^​,s^) of μ\muμ is

q^(y,z)=(q1(y+z−a,a), q1(y+z−a,a)),s^(y,z)=q^(y,z)⋅(y,z)−b(y+z−a,a).\hat q(y,z) = \bigl(q_1(y+z-a, a),\ q_1(y+z-a, a)\bigr), \qquad \hat s(y,z) = \hat q(y,z)\cdot(y,z) - b(y+z-a, a).q^​(y,z)=(q1​(y+z−a,a), q1​(y+z−a,a)),s^(y,z)=q^​(y,z)⋅(y,z)−b(y+z−a,a).

It depends on (y,z)(y,z)(y,z) only through y+zy + zy+z, so it is a bundled mechanism.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 16

Let a>0a > 0a>0 and let FFF have a density fff supported in [a,∞)[a, \infty)[a,∞), differentiable on (a,∞)(a,\infty)(a,∞), with

xf′(x)+32f(x)≤0(x>a).(9)x f'(x) + \tfrac32 f(x) \le 0 \qquad (x > a). \tag{9}xf′(x)+23​f(x)≤0(x>a).(9)

Then for two i.i.d.-FFF goods,

Rev(X1,X2)=BRev(X1,X2)=Rev(X1+X2).\mathrm{Rev}(X_1, X_2) = \mathrm{BRev}(X_1, X_2) = \mathrm{Rev}(X_1 + X_2).Rev(X1​,X2​)=BRev(X1​,X2​)=Rev(X1​+X2​).

The substance is Rev≤BRev\mathrm{Rev} \le \mathrm{BRev}Rev≤BRev. The reverse inequality holds for every law, and the second equality is the definition of BRev\mathrm{BRev}BRev.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 5 (at least one good): IC holds if and only if bbb is convex and q(x)q(x)q(x) is a subgradient of bbb at every xxx.
  2. Proposition 6 (iii) (at least one good): the supremum defining Rev\mathrm{Rev}Rev may be restricted to NPT mechanisms.
  3. Symmetrization (p. 32): for i.i.d. goods, the symmetrization μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ is IC, IR, NPT and symmetric, and it has the same revenue.
  4. Display (18): for symmetric IC μ\muμ and y,z≥ay, z \ge ay,z≥a, b(y,z)≤b(y+z−a,a)b(y,z) \le b(y+z-a, a)b(y,z)≤b(y+z−a,a).
  5. μ^\hat\muμ^​ is feasible, IC and IR on the quadrant [a,∞)2[a,\infty)^2[a,∞)2, and bundled.
  6. Under (9), R(μ;X)≤R(μ^;X)R(\mu; X) \le R(\hat\mu; X)R(μ;X)≤R(μ^​;X) for symmetric IC, IR and NPT μ\muμ.

Companion: Corollary 17

For two i.i.d. goods with the equal-revenue law P[V≥p]=1/p\mathbb{P}[V \ge p] = 1/pP[V≥p]=1/p (p≥1p \ge 1p≥1),

Rev(V1,V2)=BRev(V1,V2)=2(w+1)≈2.56,\mathrm{Rev}(V_1,V_2) = \mathrm{BRev}(V_1,V_2) = 2(w+1) \approx 2.56,Rev(V1​,V2​)=BRev(V1​,V2​)=2(w+1)≈2.56,

where wew+1=1w e^{w+1} = 1wew+1=1.

Significance

Theorem 16 is one of the few closed-form optimality results for multi-good monopoly. It gives an explicit, checkable condition: x3/2f(x)x^{3/2} f(x)x3/2f(x) is nonincreasing. The condition covers the equal-revenue distribution and Pareto distributions with index α≥1/2\alpha \ge 1/2α≥1/2. On these distributions the optimal revenue reduces to a one-dimensional pricing problem for Y+ZY + ZY+Z. Corollary 17 is the resulting exact value for two equal-revenue goods. Elsewhere in the paper, Theorems C and D use the equal-revenue law as the extremal example for the approximation ratios.

The theorem is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has not been machine-checked. The mission formalizes the model and every step of the proof as a separate milestone. These steps are Rochet's characterization (Proposition 5), the NPT reduction, symmetrization, the convexity majorization (18), and the revenue comparison under (9). Propositions 5 and 6 (iii) and symmetrization are shared with other missions of this series, so they are reusable beyond Theorem 16.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to show that the optimal mechanism is bundled by exhibiting it. This fails because nothing is known about the optimal mechanism, and it need not exist. The proof instead compares an arbitrary symmetric mechanism with its bundled majorant μ^\hat\muμ^​. A pointwise comparison fails: b^≥b\hat b \ge bb^≥b does not imply s^≥s\hat s \ge ss^≥s. The comparison holds only in expectation and only for densities satisfying (9); without (9) bundling is not optimal in general.

Making this rigorous requires several things:

  • the a.e. differentiability of the convex function bbb, together with q1=∂b/∂yq_1 = \partial b/\partial yq1​=∂b/∂y a.e.;
  • integration by parts on truncated squares [a,M]2[a, M]^2[a,M]2 with possibly infinite total revenue;
  • control of the boundary term at y=ay = ay=a, where fff need not be bounded or continuous;
  • the extension of μ^\hat\muμ^​, defined on [a,∞)2[a,\infty)^2[a,∞)2, to an IC and IR mechanism on all of R+2\mathbb{R}^2_+R+2​.

Formalization scope

Valuations are functions Fin 2→R≥0\mathrm{Fin}\ 2 \to \mathbb{R}_{\ge 0}Fin 2→R≥0​, and random valuations are given by their laws. "Two i.i.d. goods" is the product measure ν⊗ν\nu \otimes \nuν⊗ν. The law ν\nuν is the image on R≥0\mathbb{R}_{\ge0}R≥0​ of f(x) dxf(x)\,dxf(x)dx, so no mass is lost because f=0f = 0f=0 below a>0a > 0a>0. "Density function" means: fff measurable, f≥0f \ge 0f≥0, ∫f=1\int f = 1∫f=1, and f=0f = 0f=0 on (−∞,a)(-\infty, a)(−∞,a). Continuity of FFF is then automatic. Differentiability of fff is required at every x>ax > ax>a, the range of (9). Nothing is assumed about fff at aaa; in particular fff may blow up there.

Admissible mechanisms are feasible, IC, IR and have a measurable payment function. The paper allows measurability without loss of generality (footnote 12). Revenue R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) is an extended real, so a non-integrable payment never collapses to 000. Rev\mathrm{Rev}Rev takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and may be infinite under (9), for instance for f(x)=c x−3/2f(x) = c\,x^{-3/2}f(x)=cx−3/2 on [a,∞)[a,\infty)[a,∞). Milestone 5 states IC and IR of μ^\hat\muμ^​ on the quadrant only, as the paper defines μ^\hat\muμ^​ there. Off the quadrant, y+z−ay + z - ay+z−a is truncated at 000.

The goal must not be stated as the second equality alone, which is definitional. Nor may it assume the law is bounded or that f(a)f(a)f(a) is finite: these would replace the theorem with a special case. The display (17) and the limit formula (16) are not posed, because their boundary term 2af(a)∫b(a,z)f(z) dz2a f(a)\int b(a,z) f(z)\,dz2af(a)∫b(a,z)f(z)dz refers to the value of fff at aaa, which the hypotheses do not control.

A complete development needs Rochet's characterization, a.e. gradients of convex functions on R+2\mathbb{R}^2_+R+2​, Fubini–Tonelli on the product law, one-dimensional integration by parts with an absolutely continuous weight, and Myerson's one-good formula for Corollary 17. Contributions of any of these as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and N. Nisan, Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items, J. Econ. Theory 172 (2017); arXiv:1204.1846v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.1846
  • R. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Math. Oper. Res. 6 (1981) 58–73. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • J.-C. Rochet, The taxation principle and multi-time Hamilton–Jacobi equations, J. Math. Econ. 14 (1985) 113–128. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(85)90015-1
  • A. Manelli and D. Vincent, Bundling as an optimal selling mechanism for a multiple-good monopolist, J. Econ. Theory 127 (2006) 1–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2005.08.007
  • S. Hart and P. Reny, Maximal revenue with multiple goods: nonmonotonicity and other observations, Theoretical Economics 10 (2015) 893–922. https://doi.org/10.3982/TE1517
  • C. Daskalakis, A. Deckelbaum and C. Tzamos, Strong duality for a multiple-good monopolist, Econometrica 85 (2017) 735–767. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA12618
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Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items 1: For Independent Groups of Goods Y and Z, Rev(Y, Z) ≤ Rev(Y) + Rev(Z) + BRev(Y) + BRev(Z)Research Paper

Motivation

A seller who offers several goods to a buyer with private values has to choose a selling mechanism. For one good the optimal mechanism is known: post the best take-it-or-leave-it price (Myerson 1981). For two or more goods the optimal mechanism can be complicated: it may use lotteries, its menu may be infinite, and it may not be computable in closed form even for simple value distributions. Sellers therefore use simple mechanisms, such as selling each good separately or selling all goods as one bundle, and the question is how much revenue this costs.

Hart and Nisan (arXiv:1204.1846v3, J. Econ. Theory 2017) answer this with guaranteed fractions of the optimal revenue. Their basic tool is a decomposition theorem: when the goods split into two groups whose values are independent, the optimal revenue from all goods together is bounded by revenues computed from each group separately. This mission formalizes that theorem (Theorem 7) and the paper's first headline result, Theorem A, which is its two-good case.

Setting

There are k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 goods and one buyer with additive values. A valuation is a vector x∈R+kx \in \mathbb{R}^k_+x∈R+k​, and a kkk-good random valuation XXX is a random vector in R+k\mathbb{R}^k_+R+k​ whose law the seller knows.

A mechanism μ=(q,s)\mu = (q, s)μ=(q,s) consists of an allocation q:R+k→[0,1]kq : \mathbb{R}^k_+ \to [0,1]^kq:R+k​→[0,1]k, where qi(x)q_i(x)qi​(x) is the probability that the buyer receives good iii when reporting xxx, and a payment s:R+k→Rs : \mathbb{R}^k_+ \to \mathbb{R}s:R+k​→R. The buyer's payoff from truthful reporting is b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x)b(x) = q(x)\cdot x - s(x)b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x). The mechanism is

  • incentive compatible (IC) if b(x)≥q(x~)⋅x−s(x~)b(x) \ge q(\tilde x)\cdot x - s(\tilde x)b(x)≥q(x~)⋅x−s(x~) for all x,x~∈R+kx, \tilde x \in \mathbb{R}^k_+x,x~∈R+k​;
  • individually rational (IR) if b(x)≥0b(x) \ge 0b(x)≥0 for all xxx;
  • no positive transfer (NPT) if s(x)≥0s(x) \ge 0s(x)≥0 for all xxx.

Let M\mathcal MM be the class of IC and IR mechanisms. The expected revenue of μ∈M\mu \in \mathcal Mμ∈M is R(μ;X)=E[s(X)]R(\mu; X) = \mathbb{E}[s(X)]R(μ;X)=E[s(X)], which lies in (−∞,+∞](-\infty, +\infty](−∞,+∞], and the optimal revenue is

Rev(X)=sup⁡μ∈MR(μ;X)∈[0,∞].\mathrm{Rev}(X) = \sup_{\mu \in \mathcal M} R(\mu; X) \in [0, \infty].Rev(X)=μ∈Msup​R(μ;X)∈[0,∞].

Two benchmarks reduce to one-good problems: the separate revenue SRev(X)=Rev(X1)+⋯+Rev(Xk)\mathrm{SRev}(X) = \mathrm{Rev}(X_1) + \dots + \mathrm{Rev}(X_k)SRev(X)=Rev(X1​)+⋯+Rev(Xk​) and the bundled revenue BRev(X)=Rev(X1+⋯+Xk)\mathrm{BRev}(X) = \mathrm{Rev}(X_1 + \dots + X_k)BRev(X)=Rev(X1​+⋯+Xk​). Finally Val(X)=E[∑iXi]\mathrm{Val}(X) = \mathbb{E}[\sum_i X_i]Val(X)=E[∑i​Xi​] is the expected total value.

For the decomposition, YYY is a random valuation for k1≥1k_1 \ge 1k1​≥1 goods and ZZZ one for k2≥1k_2 \ge 1k2​≥1 goods. The coordinates of YYY may be arbitrarily dependent, and so may those of ZZZ, but the vectors YYY and ZZZ are independent. Rev(Y,Z)\mathrm{Rev}(Y, Z)Rev(Y,Z) is the optimal revenue from selling all k1+k2k_1 + k_2k1​+k2​ goods together, and X1X∈AX\mathbf 1_{X \in A}X1X∈A​ is the random valuation equal to XXX on the event X∈AX \in AX∈A and to 000 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (p. 18)

If YYY and ZZZ are independent, then

Rev(Y,Z)≤Rev(Y)+Rev(Z)+BRev(Y)+BRev(Z)≤2(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z)).\mathrm{Rev}(Y, Z) \le \mathrm{Rev}(Y) + \mathrm{Rev}(Z) + \mathrm{BRev}(Y) + \mathrm{BRev}(Z) \le 2\big(\mathrm{Rev}(Y) + \mathrm{Rev}(Z)\big).Rev(Y,Z)≤Rev(Y)+Rev(Z)+BRev(Y)+BRev(Z)≤2(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z)).

Both inequalities are part of the goal, with the same middle term.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. Proposition 6 (iii), p. 14: Rev(X)\mathrm{Rev}(X)Rev(X) is the supremum of R(μ;X)R(\mu; X)R(μ;X) over IC, IR and NPT mechanisms.
  2. The NPT split, p. 20: Rev(Y,Z)≤Rev((Y,Z)1∑iYi≥∑jZj)+Rev((Y,Z)1∑jZj≥∑iYi)\mathrm{Rev}(Y,Z) \le \mathrm{Rev}\big((Y,Z)\mathbf 1_{\sum_i Y_i \ge \sum_j Z_j}\big) + \mathrm{Rev}\big((Y,Z)\mathbf 1_{\sum_j Z_j \ge \sum_i Y_i}\big)Rev(Y,Z)≤Rev((Y,Z)1∑i​Yi​≥∑j​Zj​​)+Rev((Y,Z)1∑j​Zj​≥∑i​Yi​​).
  3. Proposition 6 (iv), p. 14: for μ∈M\mu \in \mathcal Mμ∈M and a set AAA of values, E[s(X)1X∈A]≤Rev(X1X∈A)≤Rev(X)\mathbb{E}[s(X)\mathbf 1_{X\in A}] \le \mathrm{Rev}(X\mathbf 1_{X\in A}) \le \mathrm{Rev}(X)E[s(X)1X∈A​]≤Rev(X1X∈A​)≤Rev(X).
  4. Lemma 8, p. 19: Rev((Y,Z)1(Y,Z)∈A)≤Rev(Y)+Val(Z1(Y,Z)∈A)\mathrm{Rev}\big((Y,Z)\mathbf 1_{(Y,Z)\in A}\big) \le \mathrm{Rev}(Y) + \mathrm{Val}\big(Z\mathbf 1_{(Y,Z)\in A}\big)Rev((Y,Z)1(Y,Z)∈A​)≤Rev(Y)+Val(Z1(Y,Z)∈A​).
  5. Lemma 9, p. 20: for one-dimensional independent Y,ZY, ZY,Z, Val(Z1Y≥Z)≤Rev(Y)\mathrm{Val}(Z\mathbf 1_{Y \ge Z}) \le \mathrm{Rev}(Y)Val(Z1Y≥Z​)≤Rev(Y).
  6. Lemma 10, p. 20: Val(Z1∑iYi≥∑jZj)≤BRev(Y)\mathrm{Val}\big(Z\mathbf 1_{\sum_i Y_i \ge \sum_j Z_j}\big) \le \mathrm{BRev}(Y)Val(Z1∑i​Yi​≥∑j​Zj​​)≤BRev(Y).
  7. BRev ≤ Rev, p. 18.

Companions

Theorem A in the form (2), p. 16: for two independent goods Y,ZY, ZY,Z, Rev(Y,Z)≤2(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z))\mathrm{Rev}(Y, Z) \le 2(\mathrm{Rev}(Y) + \mathrm{Rev}(Z))Rev(Y,Z)≤2(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z)). Also posed is display (5), p. 17: z⋅P[Y≥z]≤Rev(Y)z\cdot\mathbb{P}[Y \ge z] \le \mathrm{Rev}(Y)z⋅P[Y≥z]≤Rev(Y) for one good and every z≥0z \ge 0z≥0.

Significance

Theorem A says that for two independent goods, selling them separately guarantees half of the optimal revenue, whatever the distributions. Theorem 7 extends this to two independent groups of goods. It is the induction step behind the paper's bounds for many goods: separate selling guarantees a fraction c/log⁡2kc/\log^2 kc/log2k of the optimal revenue for kkk independent goods (Theorem C), and bundling guarantees c/log⁡kc/\log kc/logk for kkk i.i.d. goods (Theorem D). These are other missions of this series, and both use Theorem 7 as a black box. The same approach underlies later work on simple versus optimal mechanisms, for example Babaioff, Immorlica, Lucier and Weinberg (FOCS 2014) and Li and Yao (PNAS 2013).

All results posed here are proved in the paper. As far as we know, none has a machine-checked proof. A formal proof would give a reusable development of mechanism design with multi-dimensional types: IC and IR mechanisms on R+k\mathbb{R}^k_+R+k​, revenue as an extended-real expectation, restriction of mechanisms to subdomains, and marginal mechanisms obtained by fixing some coordinates of an independent product.

Difficulty

The proofs are short on paper but rest on measure theory the prose passes over. Lemma 8 conditions on Z=zZ = zZ=z and applies Proposition 6 (iv) to a one-group mechanism for each fixed zzz. Formally this is a Tonelli argument on a product measure, with an integrand that may be negative on part of the space and +∞+\infty+∞ in expectation. The induced mechanism sz(y)=s(y,z)−∑jqj(y,z)zjs^z(y) = s(y, z) - \sum_j q_j(y,z) z_jsz(y)=s(y,z)−∑j​qj​(y,z)zj​ involves the allocation qqq, which is not assumed measurable. Proposition 6 (iv) bounds a mechanism with possibly negative payments by the optimal revenue on a modified valuation X1X∈AX\mathbf 1_{X \in A}X1X∈A​, and this requires shifting the mechanism to make it NPT. Finally, every revenue may be infinite, so the inequalities must be handled in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and in the extended reals, without cancelling.

A natural first idea is to apply Theorem A coordinate by coordinate. This fails, because the coordinates inside YYY may be dependent. Only the independence of YYY from ZZZ is available, and the bound must go through the bundled revenue BRev\mathrm{BRev}BRev.

Formalization scope

  • Valuations as laws. A random valuation is represented by its law, a probability measure on ι → ℝ≥0 for a finite type ι of goods. Every quantity of the paper depends only on the law. One good is ι = Unit.
  • Independence as a product law. The law of (Y,Z)(Y,Z)(Y,Z) is the product of the laws of YYY and ZZZ, transported to ι₁ ⊕ ι₂ → ℝ≥0. Theorems that need independence are never stated over an arbitrary joint law with given marginals, since they are false for correlated groups. The NPT split in the proof of Theorem 7 is stated for independent groups, as on the page. Proposition 6 applies to an arbitrary law.
  • The class M\mathcal MM. M\mathcal MM requires q∈[0,1]kq \in [0,1]^kq∈[0,1]k, IC, IR and a measurable payment sss, the last as allowed by the paper's footnote 12. qqq is not required to be measurable.
  • Revenue. R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) is ∫s+−∫s−\int s^+ - \int s^-∫s+−∫s− in the extended reals, so that E[s(X)]=+∞\mathbb{E}[s(X)] = +\inftyE[s(X)]=+∞ is kept. Since s≥s(0)s \ge s(0)s≥s(0) under IC, the negative part is finite. The Bochner integral is not used, because it would assign 000 to a non-integrable payment. Rev\mathrm{Rev}Rev, SRev\mathrm{SRev}SRev, BRev\mathrm{BRev}BRev and Val\mathrm{Val}Val take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Subdomains. X1X∈AX\mathbf 1_{X\in A}X1X∈A​ is the image law under x↦x1A(x)x \mapsto x\mathbf 1_A(x)x↦x1A​(x), and AAA is assumed measurable. The regions of the proof of Theorem 7 are both closed, so the diagonal is counted twice, as in the paper.
  • Not trivializable. A formalization in which Rev\mathrm{Rev}Rev is computed with a Bochner integral, the expected revenue is clipped before comparing a single mechanism with Rev\mathrm{Rev}Rev, or independence is dropped does not state the paper's theorem, and none of these is used.
  • Not posed. The ratio form of Theorem A (GFOR≥1/2\mathrm{GFOR} \ge 1/2GFOR≥1/2) is not posed, because of its conventions 0/0=10/0 = 10/0=1 and ∞/∞\infty/\infty∞/∞. Theorems B, C, D, 16 and 33 are separate missions of this series.

Contributions are welcome at every level: Proposition 6 (the NPT shift and subdomain restriction), the marginal-mechanism construction behind Lemma 8, and the one-good facts (5) and Lemma 9 are all reusable in the sibling missions on Theorems C and D.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and N. Nisan, Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items, Journal of Economic Theory 172 (2017); preprint arXiv:1204.1846v3, 2017. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.1846
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6 (1981) 58–73. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • S. Hart and P. J. Reny, Maximal Revenue with Multiple Goods: Nonmonotonicity and Other Observations, Theoretical Economics 10 (2015) 893–922. https://doi.org/10.3982/TE1517
  • M. Babaioff, N. Immorlica, B. Lucier and S. M. Weinberg, A Simple and Approximately Optimal Mechanism for an Additive Buyer, FOCS 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.6146
  • X. Li and A. C.-C. Yao, On Revenue Maximization for Selling Multiple Independently Distributed Items, PNAS 110 (2013) 11232–11237. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1309533110
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Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems 2: The Degree Relaxation of Matching Has a (b, e^(−2b))-Selectable Randomized Greedy OCRSResearch Paper

Why online matching needs a stronger rounding guarantee

In online selection, candidate items reveal themselves one at a time and an algorithm must decide immediately whether to keep each one. When the kept items must form a matching, accepting one edge can prevent a later edge sharing an endpoint from being accepted. A fractional solution supplies useful marginal probabilities, but it does not by itself specify which active edges can be kept under an unfavorable arrival order. Online contention resolution schemes provide that missing rounding step: they turn independent edge activity into a feasible online selection while guaranteeing each edge a chance of selection. Feldman, Svensson, and Zenklusen introduced the strong selectability guarantee used here, which protects an edge even against an arrival order chosen with knowledge of all random outcomes (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, §1.1).

This mission isolates the matching result of their paper. It concerns a degree relaxation that is weaker than the full matching polytope, so the result applies even when the input fractional point satisfies only local vertex constraints. The source states the existence theorem as Theorem 2.7 and gives its numerical guarantee explicitly (Theorem 2.7, p. 13).

Finite graphs, fractional edges, and greedy families

Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be a finite graph. An edge ggg has two distinct endpoints; multiple edges may have the same endpoints. A matching is a set of edges with no shared vertex. For a vertex uuu, write δ(u)\delta(u)δ(u) for its incident edges. The degree relaxation is

PG={x∈R≥0E:∑g∈δ(u)xg≤1 for every u∈V}.P_G=\left\{x\in\mathbb R_{\ge0}^{E}:\sum_{g\in\delta(u)}x_g\le1\text{ for every }u\in V\right\}.PG​=⎩⎨⎧​x∈R≥0E​:g∈δ(u)∑​xg​≤1 for every u∈V⎭⎬⎫​.

Since each edge meets a vertex, these constraints also give xg≤1x_g\le1xg​≤1. Every matching has a characteristic vector in PGP_GPG​. The degree relaxation can contain points outside the convex hull of matchings, which makes the theorem stronger than a statement restricted to the matching polytope (§2.2, p. 13).

For x∈[0,1]Ex\in[0,1]^Ex∈[0,1]E, the active set R(x)R(x)R(x) includes each edge ggg independently with probability xgx_gxg​. A greedy family Fx\mathcal F_xFx​ is a downward closed family of matchings containing the empty set. A greedy online scheme accepts an active edge if adding it to the already accepted set remains in Fx\mathcal F_xFx​. The family may itself be random, sampled independently of R(x)R(x)R(x).

An edge ggg is selectable for a realized active set and greedy family when every member I∈FxI\in\mathcal F_xI∈Fx​ with I⊆R(x)I\subseteq R(x)I⊆R(x) can be extended by ggg while staying in Fx\mathcal F_xFx​. Thus selectability promises acceptance regardless of which eligible active edges preceded ggg. A scheme is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable if this event has probability at least ccc for every x∈bPGx\in bP_Gx∈bPG​ and every edge. The probability includes both the active-set draw and any random family draw (Definitions 1.3–1.5, pp. 3–4).

Formalization targets

Theorem 2.7: a randomized matching scheme

For every b∈[0,1]b\in[0,1]b∈[0,1] and every finite loopless graph GGG,

∃ a randomized greedy scheme for PG that is (b,e−2b)-selectable.\exists\text{ a randomized greedy scheme for }P_G\text{ that is }(b,e^{-2b})\text{-selectable}.∃ a randomized greedy scheme for PG​ that is (b,e−2b)-selectable.

Equivalently, for each x∈bPGx\in bP_Gx∈bPG​ and each edge g∈Eg\in Eg∈E, the probability that ggg is selectable is at least e−2be^{-2b}e−2b. The statement includes edges with xg=0x_g=0xg​=0; the selectability event concerns the ability to add an edge, rather than the probability that it becomes active. The milestones are the steps the source states in its proof, in attack order (proof of Theorem 2.7, pp. 13–14):

  1. for t>0t>0t>0, 0≤(1−e−t)/t≤10\le(1-e^{-t})/t\le10≤(1−e−t)/t≤1, so that an edge can be put into a random set KKK of potential edges with probability (1−e−xg)/xg(1-e^{-x_g})/x_g(1−e−xg​)/xg​;
  2. drawing KKK this way and using the matchings inside KKK as the family is a randomized greedy scheme;
  3. an edge g′g'g′ with ends u,vu,vu,v is selectable exactly when g′∈Kg'\in Kg′∈K and A∩K∩(δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′})=∅A\cap K\cap(\delta(u)\cup\delta(v)\setminus\{g'\})=\varnothingA∩K∩(δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′})=∅;
  4. the probability of that event equals 1−e−xg′xg′ e−∑g∈δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′}xg\frac{1-e^{-x_{g'}}}{x_{g'}}\,e^{-\sum_{g\in\delta(u)\cup\delta(v)\setminus\{g'\}}x_g}xg′​1−e−xg′​​e−∑g∈δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′}​xg​;
  5. for x∈bPGx\in bP_Gx∈bPG​, ∑g∈δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′}xg≤2(b−xg′)\sum_{g\in\delta(u)\cup\delta(v)\setminus\{g'\}}x_g\le2(b-x_{g'})∑g∈δ(u)∪δ(v)∖{g′}​xg​≤2(b−xg′​);
  6. for t>0t>0t>0, et(et−1)/t≥1e^{t}(e^{t}-1)/t\ge1et(et−1)/t≥1.

Remark (p. 14): the deterministic variant

Taking K=EK=EK=E, the deterministic greedy scheme whose family is the set of all matchings is (b,(1−b)2)(b,(1-b)^2)(b,(1−b)2)-selectable for PGP_GPG​, b∈[0,1]b\in[0,1]b∈[0,1]:

Pr⁡A∼R(x)[g is selectable for A] ≥ (1−b)2∀x∈bPG, ∀g∈E.\Pr_{A\sim R(x)}\big[g\text{ is selectable for }A\big]\ \ge\ (1-b)^2\qquad\forall x\in bP_G,\ \forall g\in E.A∼R(x)Pr​[g is selectable for A] ≥ (1−b)2∀x∈bPG​, ∀g∈E.

This companion is weaker than Theorem 2.7 for every b∈(0,1]b\in(0,1]b∈(0,1] and is not used by it (Remark, p. 14).

What the result contributes

The theorem gives a constant probability bound against the paper's strongest, “almighty” arrival-order adversary. The guarantee is available from vertex degree inequalities alone. Consequently it applies to points of the exact matching polytope as well, without asking the online rounding procedure to exploit its additional odd-set inequalities. The paper places this result beside analogous existence claims for matroids and knapsacks in Theorem 1.8, and uses greedy schemes as components in more general selection results (Theorem 1.8, p. 4).

The existence theorem is proved in the source; it is an open formalization target here. A completed Lean development would supply a reusable finite model of independent active sets, random greedy families, edge selectability, and matching degree relaxations. It would also put the exact e−2be^{-2b}e−2b constant and its endpoint cases under machine checking. The definitions can support future formalizations of the paper's combination and application results, although this mission claims only Theorem 2.7 and its local proof milestones.

Where the argument is delicate

The local degree constraints bound the fractional weight at each endpoint separately, while selectability must survive conflicts at either endpoint under any arrival order. Merely ensuring that the algorithm outputs a matching gives no lower bound for a particular edge: the adversary can expose competing active edges first. The theorem therefore asks for a stronger event that certifies an edge could be added after every eligible previously selected matching. The numerical guarantee must hold uniformly over all edges, even when a coordinate is zero (Definitions 1.4–1.5, pp. 3–4; proof of Theorem 2.7, p. 13).

Formalization scope

The ground set is the finite edge type EEE. The published EdmondsMatching65.Polyhedron.Graph structure represents a graph by a map from edges to unordered pairs of vertices and includes a proof excluding self-loops; its matching predicate is reused directly. This admits parallel edges, a harmless generalization of the page's graph language. Incident edge sets and matchings are finite sets. The polytope is the set of real edge vectors satisfying precisely the nonnegativity and vertex degree inequalities above. Scaling is the pointwise set operation bPGbP_GbPG​, so b=0b=0b=0 remains meaningful. The parameter range 0≤b≤10\le b\le10≤b≤1 is explicit.

Probability is represented by finite sums of product weights. A randomized scheme is a weight function on finite greedy families, independent of the active-set draw. Each family contains the empty set and lies inside the matchings; allowing an empty family would make selectability vacuous. The degree inequalities keep relevant coordinates in [0,1][0,1][0,1], so active-set weights are genuine probabilities. The source's ratio (1−e−xg)/xg(1-e^{-x_g})/x_g(1−e−xg​)/xg​ is given its continuous value 111 at xg=0x_g=0xg​=0. For inputs outside the nonnegative domain, which the theorem never uses, that inclusion probability is also assigned 111 to keep the distribution well formed. These choices and the loopless graph convention are recorded with the draft statements.

The formalization needs finite product probability identities, elementary exponential inequalities, and set facts about matchings and incident edges. Contributions proving the six listed milestones, the deterministic Remark, or the full existential theorem are welcome. The finite model of active sets, greedy families and selectability is shared with the other missions of this series (matroids, knapsack, combinations of schemes, submodular rounding).

Selected references

  • Moran Feldman, Ola Svensson, and Rico Zenklusen, Online Contention Resolution Schemes, arXiv:1508.00142v2, 2015, preprint. Published as Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021.
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Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems 5: A (b, c)-Selectable Greedy OCRS Rounds x ∈ bP to E[f(S)] ≥ c·F(x) for Monotone Submodular fResearch Paper

Motivation

Many online selection problems ask an algorithm to accept or reject items one at a time, irrevocably, while keeping the accepted set feasible: independent in a matroid, a matching in a graph, or within a knapsack budget. In Bayesian versions, such as prophet inequalities and posted-price mechanisms, a fractional point xxx of a relaxation of the feasible sets is available in advance, and each item is active independently with probability xex_exe​. An online contention resolution scheme (OCRS), introduced by Feldman, Svensson and Zenklusen, turns this random active set into a feasible selection as items arrive.

The quality of an OCRS is measured by its selectability: the probability that every element is accepted when it is active, whatever the arrival order. Applications, however, care about the value of the selected set, often a submodular function such as a coverage or a utility with diminishing returns. Theorem 1.10 of the paper is the bridge between the two: a selectability guarantee ccc yields an approximation guarantee ccc for every monotone submodular objective, and c/4c/4c/4 for non-monotone ones, even against an adversary who sees every random outcome before fixing the order. The other four missions of this series construct selectable OCRSs for matroids, matchings and knapsacks and combine them; this mission formalizes what such a guarantee is worth.

The offline counterpart is the theory of contention resolution schemes (CRSs) of Chekuri, Vondrák and Zenklusen (SIAM J. Comput. 2014), whose Theorem 1.3 shows that a monotone balanced CRS rounds the multilinear extension of a submodular function with the balancedness factor. The proof of Theorem 1.10 reduces the online statement to that offline result.

Setting

Let NNN be a finite ground set and F⊆2N\mathcal F\subseteq 2^NF⊆2N a down-closed family of feasible sets. A polytope P⊆[0,1]NP\subseteq[0,1]^NP⊆[0,1]N is a relaxation of F\mathcal FF if it contains exactly the characteristic vectors 1I\mathbf 1_I1I​ with I∈FI\in\mathcal FI∈F among the {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-points. For x∈[0,1]Nx\in[0,1]^Nx∈[0,1]N, the random set R(x)R(x)R(x) contains every eee independently with probability xex_exe​.

A greedy OCRS fixes, for each input xxx, a down-closed family Fx⊆F\mathcal F_x\subseteq\mathcal FFx​⊆F containing ∅\emptyset∅ (deterministically, or drawn from a distribution independent of R(x)R(x)R(x)). The elements then arrive one by one; an arriving active element is selected if, together with the elements already selected, it forms a set in Fx\mathcal F_xFx​. An element eee is selectable for the active set AAA if I∪{e}∈FxI\cup\{e\}\in\mathcal F_xI∪{e}∈Fx​ for every I⊆AI\subseteq AI⊆A with I∈FxI\in\mathcal F_xI∈Fx​. For b,c∈[0,1]b,c\in[0,1]b,c∈[0,1] the OCRS is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable if for every x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP and every e∈Ne\in Ne∈N

Pr⁡[I∪{e}∈Fx  ∀I⊆R(x), I∈Fx]≥c.\Pr\big[I\cup\{e\}\in\mathcal F_x\ \ \forall I\subseteq R(x),\ I\in\mathcal F_x\big]\ge c .Pr[I∪{e}∈Fx​  ∀I⊆R(x), I∈Fx​]≥c.

The arrival order is chosen by the almighty adversary, which knows R(x)R(x)R(x), the realized family Fx\mathcal F_xFx​ and every random bit of the algorithm before choosing it.

For f:2N→Rf:2^N\to\mathbb Rf:2N→R, the multilinear extension is F(x)=E[f(R(x))]F(x)=\mathbb E[f(R(x))]F(x)=E[f(R(x))]. The function fff is submodular if f(A∪B)+f(A∩B)≤f(A)+f(B)f(A\cup B)+f(A\cap B)\le f(A)+f(B)f(A∪B)+f(A∩B)≤f(A)+f(B) for all A,BA,BA,B, and monotone if A⊆BA\subseteq BA⊆B implies f(A)≤f(B)f(A)\le f(B)f(A)≤f(B). For a set SSS, S(1/2)S(1/2)S(1/2) keeps every element of SSS independently with probability 1/21/21/2.

An (offline) CRS π\piπ for PPP maps each S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N, possibly at random, to a subset π(S)⊆S\pi(S)\subseteq Sπ(S)⊆S with 1π(S)∈P\mathbf 1_{\pi(S)}\in P1π(S)​∈P. It is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-balanced if Pr⁡[e∈π(R(x))∣e∈R(x)]≥c\Pr[e\in\pi(R(x))\mid e\in R(x)]\ge cPr[e∈π(R(x))∣e∈R(x)]≥c for x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP and xe>0x_e>0xe​>0, and monotone if Pr⁡[e∈π(S1)]≥Pr⁡[e∈π(S2)]\Pr[e\in\pi(S_1)]\ge\Pr[e\in\pi(S_2)]Pr[e∈π(S1​)]≥Pr[e∈π(S2​)] whenever e∈S1⊆S2e\in S_1\subseteq S_2e∈S1​⊆S2​. The characteristic CRS of a greedy OCRS is πˉ(A)={e∈A:e selectable for A}\bar\pi(A)=\{e\in A : e \text{ selectable for } A\}πˉ(A)={e∈A:e selectable for A}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.10

Let PPP be a relaxation of F\mathcal FF, let π\piπ be a (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable greedy OCRS for PPP, let x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP, and let f≥0f\ge0f≥0 be submodular. Against every almighty adversary, the selected set SSS satisfies

E[f(S)]≥c⋅F(x)if f is monotone,E[f(S(1/2))]≥c4⋅F(x)in general,\mathbb E[f(S)]\ge c\cdot F(x)\quad\text{if } f \text{ is monotone},\qquad \mathbb E[f(S(1/2))]\ge \frac c4\cdot F(x)\quad\text{in general},E[f(S)]≥c⋅F(x)if f is monotone,E[f(S(1/2))]≥4c​⋅F(x)in general,

where in the second case the coins defining S(1/2)S(1/2)S(1/2) are known to the adversary. The constants are the paper's and are not parameters to be improved here.

Milestones

  1. Observation 3.3: for every greedy family, active set and order, πˉ(A)\bar\pi(A)πˉ(A) is contained in the selected set.
  2. The remark after Definition 3.2: πˉ\bar\piπˉ is a CRS for PPP.
  3. Lemma 3.4: the characteristic CRS of a (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable greedy OCRS is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-balanced and monotone.
  4. Lemma 3.5 (from Chekuri–Vondrák–Zenklusen): for every non-negative submodular fff there is a pruning map ηf\eta_fηf​, with ηf(S)⊆S\eta_f(S)\subseteq Sηf​(S)⊆S, such that E[f(ηf(π(R(x))))]≥c⋅F(x)\mathbb E[f(\eta_f(\pi(R(x))))]\ge c\cdot F(x)E[f(ηf​(π(R(x))))]≥c⋅F(x) for every monotone (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-balanced CRS π\piπ and every x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP.
  5. Lemma 3.6 (Feige–Mirrokni–Vondrák, Lemma 2.2): if Tp⊆TT_p\subseteq TTp​⊆T contains every element of TTT with probability ppp, not necessarily independently, then E[g(Tp)]≥(1−p)g(∅)+p g(T)\mathbb E[g(T_p)]\ge(1-p)g(\emptyset)+p\,g(T)E[g(Tp​)]≥(1−p)g(∅)+pg(T) for submodular ggg.
  6. Lemma 3.7 (Buchbinder–Feldman–Naor–Schwartz, Lemma 2.2): if NpN_pNp​ contains every element with probability at most ppp, then E[g(Np)]≥(1−p)g(∅)\mathbb E[g(N_p)]\ge(1-p)g(\emptyset)E[g(Np​)]≥(1−p)g(∅) for non-negative submodular ggg.

Significance

Theorem 1.10 is what makes selectability useful. Combined with the paper's OCRSs for matroids, matchings and knapsacks (Theorem 1.8) and the combination rule (Theorem 1.9), it gives constant-factor online algorithms for submodular objectives under intersections of these constraints, and through them the paper's applications to prophet inequalities, posted-price mechanisms and stochastic probing. The guarantee holds against the strongest adversary considered, so it applies whatever arrival order the application imposes.

The theorem and its proof are published; none of the statements of this mission has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a reusable interface between online and offline contention resolution, and machine-checked versions of two standard lemmas on correlated random subsets of submodular functions (Lemmas 3.6 and 3.7) used throughout submodular maximization. Lemma 3.5 is the substantial imported ingredient: its formal proof amounts to formalizing the rounding theorem of Chekuri, Vondrák and Zenklusen for non-monotone objectives.

Difficulty

The first idea is to compare the online selection directly with F(x)F(x)F(x) element by element: each element is selected with probability at least c xec\,x_ecxe​. For a linear objective this suffices. For a submodular objective it does not, because the marginal value of an element depends on which other elements are selected, and the adversary controls this through the order. The reduction to the characteristic CRS removes the order, but the offline rounding result (Lemma 3.5) then needs the full CRS machinery, including a pruning step that depends on fff alone.

For non-monotone fff, selecting extra elements can lose value, and the adversary decides which elements beyond πˉ(A)\bar\pi(A)πˉ(A) are selected, after seeing the coins. Controlling this requires the correlated-sampling bounds of Lemmas 3.6 and 3.7 rather than independence.

Formalization scope

The ground set is a finite type α : Type with decidable equality; sets are Finset α; vectors are α → ℝ. All probabilities and expectations are exact finite sums of product weights, without measure theory. bPbPbP is the pointwise scaling b • P, which handles b=0b=0b=0. The multilinear extension and submodularity are the published definitions NonmonotoneSubmod.Shared.F and NonmonotoneSubmod.Shared.Submodular.

A randomized greedy OCRS is a weight function on families Finset (Finset α), a CRS a weight function on maps Finset α → Finset α; a deterministic OCRS is a point mass. The almighty adversary is any function from the realized family and active set (and, in part 2, the coin set CCC, with S(1/2)=S∩CS(1/2)=S\cap CS(1/2)=S∩C and CCC uniform and independent of everything else) to an order listing every element once. The standing assumptions of Definition 1.3 are explicit hypotheses: F\mathcal FF down-closed, PPP a polytope contained in [0,1]N[0,1]^N[0,1]N and a relaxation of F\mathcal FF, and b,c∈[0,1]b,c\in[0,1]b,c∈[0,1]. A polytope is encoded as the convex hull of finitely many vectors. Every greedy family contains ∅\emptyset∅, so the empty family cannot make every element vacuously selectable, and the inputs x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP lie in [0,1]N[0,1]^N[0,1]N, so the product weights are probabilities.

Definition 3.1 is printed with "≥c⋅xe\ge c\cdot x_e≥c⋅xe​"; the formalization uses "≥c\ge c≥c", as the proof of Lemma 3.4 and Definition 4.5 do. Lemma 3.5 keeps the paper's quantifier order: ηf\eta_fηf​ is fixed before PPP, bbb, ccc, π\piπ and xxx.

Welcome contributions: proofs of the milestones in any order; Lemmas 3.6 and 3.7 are self-contained and reusable; Lemma 3.5 may be split further along the proof of Chekuri–Vondrák–Zenklusen.

Selected references

  • M. Feldman, O. Svensson, R. Zenklusen, Online Contention Resolution Schemes, arXiv:1508.00142v2, 2015; Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems, SIAM J. Comput. 50(2), 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.00142v2
  • C. Chekuri, J. Vondrák, R. Zenklusen, Submodular Function Maximization via the Multilinear Relaxation and Contention Resolution Schemes, SIAM J. Comput. 43(6), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1137/110839655
  • U. Feige, V. Mirrokni, J. Vondrák, Maximizing Non-Monotone Submodular Functions, SIAM J. Comput. 40(4), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1137/090779346
  • N. Buchbinder, M. Feldman, J. Naor, R. Schwartz, Submodular Maximization with Cardinality Constraints, SODA 2014. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611973402.106
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Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems 3: A Knapsack Polytope Has a (b, (1−2b)/(2−2b))-Selectable Randomized Greedy OCRS for b ≤ 1/2Research Paper

Motivation

In online selection, useful items arrive one at a time and must be accepted or rejected before the next arrival. A knapsack constraint limits the total size of accepted items to one unit. When the order may depend on all of the random outcomes, an algorithm needs a guarantee that survives every such order. Feldman, Svensson, and Zenklusen introduced online contention resolution schemes (OCRSs) to provide this guarantee for fractional relaxations of selection problems. Their knapsack theorem gives an explicit guarantee for a randomized greedy scheme and contrasts with a size-dependent obstruction for deterministic greedy schemes (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, §2.3).

The knapsack result is one of the three concrete existence results summarized in Theorem 1.8 of the paper. The surrounding framework is designed to convert fractional solutions into feasible online selections under an almighty adversary, who knows the active items and the scheme's random choices before choosing their arrival order. This makes the selectability requirement stronger than a performance claim for one fixed order (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, Definitions 1.3–1.5).

Setting

Let NNN be a finite ground set. Each element e∈Ne\in Ne∈N has a size se∈[0,1]s_e\in[0,1]se​∈[0,1]. A subset I⊆NI\subseteq NI⊆N is feasible when its total size is at most one. The natural fractional polytope is

P={x∈[0,1]N:∑e∈Nsexe≤1}.P=\left\{x\in[0,1]^N:\sum_{e\in N}s_ex_e\le1\right\}.P={x∈[0,1]N:e∈N∑​se​xe​≤1}.

For a vector x∈[0,1]Nx\in[0,1]^Nx∈[0,1]N, the random active set R(x)R(x)R(x) includes each element eee independently with probability xex_exe​. A greedy family FxF_xFx​ is a downward-closed family of feasible subsets. The online rule accepts an active arriving element when adding it to the accepted set keeps that set inside FxF_xFx​. A randomized greedy OCRS chooses the family at random, independently of R(x)R(x)R(x). The paper studies the probability that an element eee is selectable: for every possible accepted set I⊆R(x)I\subseteq R(x)I⊆R(x) with I∈FxI\in F_xI∈Fx​, the enlarged set I∪{e}I\cup\{e\}I∪{e} still belongs to FxF_xFx​. Such an event makes eee acceptable regardless of the arrival order (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, §1.1).

Write bP={bp:p∈P}bP=\{bp:p\in P\}bP={bp:p∈P}. An OCRS is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable when, for every x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP and every e∈Ne\in Ne∈N, the probability that eee is selectable is at least ccc. The paper divides elements at size 1/21/21/2: Nbig={e:se>1/2}N_{\mathrm{big}}=\{e:s_e>1/2\}Nbig​={e:se​>1/2}, while equality belongs to the small elements. Its construction randomly chooses between the feasible subsets using only big elements and those using only small elements (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, proof of Theorem 2.9).

Formalization targets

Main theorem

Theorem 2.9 asserts that for every b∈[0,1/2]b\in[0,1/2]b∈[0,1/2] and every such knapsack polytope, a randomized greedy OCRS exists with

c=1−2b2−2b.c=\frac{1-2b}{2-2b}.c=2−2b1−2b​.

The goal quantifies over every finite ground set and every allowed size vector. At the endpoint b=1/2b=1/2b=1/2, the claimed lower bound is zero; at b=0b=0b=0, it is 1/21/21/2. The denominator remains positive throughout the stated interval. The goal is an existence statement; its witnesses are arbitrary randomized greedy families meeting the definition, so the paper's particular construction is named separately in the supporting definitions (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, Theorem 2.9, p. 14).

Supporting targets

The milestones include the paper's bound 0≤bbig≤b0\le b_{\mathrm{big}}\le b0≤bbig​≤b for bbig=∑e∈Nbigsexeb_{\mathrm{big}}=\sum_{e\in N_{\mathrm{big}}}s_ex_ebbig​=∑e∈Nbig​​se​xe​, the big and small element selectability bounds for the paper's construction, and Proposition 2.8. That proposition says that, for every ground-set size n≥1n\ge1n≥1, some knapsack constraint defeats every deterministic greedy OCRS whenever c>(1−b)n−1c>(1-b)^{n-1}c>(1−b)n−1 for b∈[0,1]b\in[0,1]b∈[0,1] (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, §2.3, pp. 14–15).

Significance

The theorem supplies a concrete selectable OCRS for the natural fractional knapsack relaxation. Its guarantee applies to every element and every fractional point in bPbPbP, under the paper's strongest arrival-order adversary. Proposition 2.8 explains why randomization matters here: a deterministic greedy scheme cannot retain an analogous positive constant independent of the number of elements on every knapsack instance. These results serve as the knapsack component in the paper's broader OCRS framework and can be combined with schemes for other constraints in the paper's later combination result (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, Theorem 1.9).

The mathematical theorem and proposition have proofs in the cited paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of their formal statements and of the stated intermediate bounds. The current draft declarations contain proof placeholders; compilation establishes only that their statements and definitions are well formed. A completed development would also leave reusable finite active-set probabilities, greedy-family predicates, and explicit knapsack constructions for later online-rounding work.

Difficulty

A family that contains every feasible subset is not automatically useful for online selection: one active set may contain several subsets whose accepted elements block the tested element. The requirement quantifies over every feasible accepted subset of the realized active set, reflecting the almighty adversary rather than a fixed order. In a knapsack, elements larger than one half behave differently from smaller ones, and a single deterministic family cannot give a ground-set-independent selectability guarantee on all instances. The randomized construction must assign valid probabilities to its two families and obtain the same lower bound in both size regimes (Feldman–Svensson–Zenklusen, Proposition 2.8 and Theorem 2.9).

Formalization scope

The Lean ground set is a finite type, and subsets are Finsets. The polytope is the set of real vectors satisfying both the box inequalities and the unit-capacity inequality. The feasible family uses the same sizes and unit capacity. Active-set and family-choice probabilities are finite sums, with independent Bernoulli factors for R(x)R(x)R(x). The scaling bPbPbP is pointwise set scalar multiplication, so the case b=0b=0b=0 retains its intended meaning. The size assumptions se∈[0,1]s_e\in[0,1]se​∈[0,1] and the ranges of bbb are explicit theorem hypotheses. No nonemptiness assumption is added to the ground set; the statements include the empty case.

The greedy-family definition requires the empty set, making it impossible to satisfy selectability by using an empty family. Every family chosen with positive probability is downward closed and consists of feasible sets. The polytope's box constraints keep every active-set weight a probability. The construction's mixing probability is used exactly on x∈bPx\in bPx∈bP; on other vectors its totalized value chooses the small family, where the paper makes no performance claim. The two branch weights are added if their families coincide, as they can on an empty ground set.

One display on page 15 includes the tested element in a load sum, while the next displayed equality treats that element as excluded. The pointwise supporting item uses the excluded-element form needed for the stated argument; the printed display is preserved in the milestone quotation and the discrepancy is detailed in MODERATION_NOTES.md. Contributions toward either size regime, the finite probability bounds, or the deterministic obstruction are welcome. The finite probability and greedy-family definitions are the parts most directly reusable beyond knapsack.

Selected references

  • Moran Feldman, Ola Svensson, and Rico Zenklusen, Online Contention Resolution Schemes, arXiv:1508.00142v2, 2015, §1.1 and §2.3, pp. 2–4 and 14–15. arXiv.
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Finding Cliques in Social Networks: A New Distribution-Free Model 1: Every Weakly c-Closed Graph on n Vertices Has at Most 3^((c−1)/3)·n² Maximal CliquesResearch Paper

Motivation

Social networks exhibit triadic closure: two people with a common friend are more likely to be friends themselves than two people chosen at random, and the more common friends they have, the more likely they are to be connected. The principle goes back to sociology (Granovetter 1973) and is documented on large network data sets (see the Enron e-mail graph in Figure 1 of Fox, Roughgarden, Seshadhri, Wei and Wein).

A common computational task on such networks is to list all maximal cliques, the groups of mutually connected vertices that cannot be enlarged. On an arbitrary graph this is hopeless in the worst case: Moon and Moser showed in 1965 that an nnn-vertex graph can have 3n/33^{n/3}3n/3 maximal cliques, and that no graph has more (Moon and Moser 1965). Yet clique enumeration on real social networks runs quickly. Fox, Roughgarden, Seshadhri, Wei and Wein proposed a distribution-free graph class, defined by a coarse form of triadic closure, on which the worst case is provably polynomial. This mission formalizes their first bound, for the class of weakly ccc-closed graphs (Theorem 2.2 of the paper, also stated as Theorem 1.5), together with the peeling argument that proves it.

Setting

All graphs are finite, simple and undirected. For a graph GGG with vertex set VVV and a vertex vvv, N(v)N(v)N(v) is the set of neighbours of vvv; for W⊆VW \subseteq VW⊆V, G[W]G[W]G[W] is the subgraph induced by WWW. The common neighbours of two vertices u,vu, vu,v are the vertices of N(u)∩N(v)N(u) \cap N(v)N(u)∩N(v).

  • ccc-closed graph (Definition 1.1). For a positive integer ccc, GGG is ccc-closed if every two distinct vertices with at least ccc common neighbours are adjacent. A 1-closed graph is a disjoint union of cliques; every graph on nnn vertices is (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-closed.
  • Bad pair (Definition 1.2). Given ccc, a bad pair of a graph is a pair of distinct, non-adjacent vertices with at least ccc common neighbours. A graph is ccc-closed exactly when it has no bad pair.
  • Weakly ccc-closed graph (Definition 1.3). A graph on nnn vertices is weakly ccc-closed if its vertices can be ordered v1,…,vnv_1, \dots, v_nv1​,…,vn​ so that for every iii, the vertex viv_ivi​ is in no bad pair of the induced subgraph G[{vi,vi+1,…,vn}]G[\{v_i, v_{i+1}, \dots, v_n\}]G[{vi​,vi+1​,…,vn​}]. Common neighbours are counted inside that subgraph.
  • Maximal clique. A clique is a set of pairwise adjacent vertices. It is maximal if no other vertex can be added to it. Write mc(G)\mathrm{mc}(G)mc(G) for the number of maximal cliques of GGG and mc(G[W])\mathrm{mc}(G[W])mc(G[W]) for that of an induced subgraph. The paper writes F(n,c)F(n,c)F(n,c) for the largest value of mc(G)\mathrm{mc}(G)mc(G) over ccc-closed graphs GGG on nnn vertices.

Every ccc-closed graph is weakly ccc-closed, but not conversely. The paper's example: a clique on kkk vertices with one edge {u,v}\{u,v\}{u,v} removed is not ccc-closed for any c<k−2c < k-2c<k−2, but it is weakly 1-closed (order uuu and vvv last).

In the Lean development these objects are IsCClosed, IsBadPairIn, IsWeaklyCClosed, maxCliquesIn, numMaxCliquesIn and numMaxCliques, in the namespace CClosedGraphs.Peeling.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2

For all positive integers ccc and nnn, every weakly ccc-closed graph GGG on nnn vertices satisfies

mc(G)≤3(c−1)/3 n2.\mathrm{mc}(G) \le 3^{(c-1)/3}\, n^2 .mc(G)≤3(c−1)/3n2.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof of Theorem 2.1 in §2.1 and the remark that extends it to Theorem 2.2. Fix a graph, an induced subgraph G[W]G[W]G[W] and a vertex v∈Wv \in Wv∈W. A maximal clique KKK of G[W]G[W]G[W] is of type 1 if v∉Kv \notin Kv∈/K, of type 2 if v∈Kv \in Kv∈K and K∖{v}K \setminus \{v\}K∖{v} is maximal in G[W∖{v}]G[W \setminus \{v\}]G[W∖{v}], and of type 3 otherwise.

  1. Moon–Moser bound (cited as [45], p. 7): mc(G[W])≤3∣W∣/3\mathrm{mc}(G[W]) \le 3^{|W|/3}mc(G[W])≤3∣W∣/3.
  2. Types 1 and 2 (p. 6): there are at most mc(G[W∖{v}])\mathrm{mc}(G[W \setminus \{v\}])mc(G[W∖{v}]) of them.
  3. Type-3 structure (p. 7, properties A–C): for a type-3 clique KKK there is u∈W∖(N(v)∪{v})u \in W \setminus (N(v) \cup \{v\})u∈W∖(N(v)∪{v}) such that K∖{v}K \setminus \{v\}K∖{v} is a maximal clique of G[W∩N(v)∩N(u)]G[W \cap N(v) \cap N(u)]G[W∩N(v)∩N(u)].
  4. Inequality (1) (p. 7): the number of type-3 cliques is at most ∑u∈W∖(N(v)∪{v})mc(G[W∩N(u)∩N(v)])\sum_{u \in W \setminus (N(v)\cup\{v\})} \mathrm{mc}(G[W \cap N(u) \cap N(v)])∑u∈W∖(N(v)∪{v})​mc(G[W∩N(u)∩N(v)]).
  5. One-vertex recursion (pp. 7–8): if vvv is in no bad pair of G[W]G[W]G[W], then mc(G[W])≤mc(G[W∖{v}])+3(c−1)/3∣W∣\mathrm{mc}(G[W]) \le \mathrm{mc}(G[W \setminus \{v\}]) + 3^{(c-1)/3}|W|mc(G[W])≤mc(G[W∖{v}])+3(c−1)/3∣W∣.
  6. Theorem 2.1 (p. 6): every ccc-closed graph on n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 vertices has mc(G)≤3(c−1)/3n2\mathrm{mc}(G) \le 3^{(c-1)/3} n^2mc(G)≤3(c−1)/3n2.

Significance

For fixed ccc, the theorem makes the number of maximal cliques of a weakly ccc-closed graph polynomial in nnn, against 3n/33^{n/3}3n/3 for general graphs. Since all maximal cliques can be listed in polynomial time per clique, this makes maximal-clique enumeration fixed-parameter tractable in ccc on the class. The paper's Theorem 2.3 turns the proof into an enumeration algorithm. Weak ccc-closure is the version that matters in practice: Table 1 of the paper reports social networks with thousands of vertices that are weakly ccc-closed for modest ccc while being ccc-closed only for much larger ccc. The bound is the starting point of the paper's sharper Theorem 3.1 (4(c+4)(c−1)/2n2−21−c4^{(c+4)(c-1)/2} n^{2-2^{1-c}}4(c+4)(c−1)/2n2−21−c) and its lower bound Theorem 4.1, which are separate missions of this series.

The result is proved in the paper, and the proof is short. No machine-checked proof of it or of the Moon–Moser bound exists in Mathlib at the pinned revision or on Prove2Me. This mission produces both, together with a reusable vocabulary for counting maximal cliques of induced subgraphs. Proofs of the sharp Moon–Moser values, or of the sharper ∣W∣−1|W|-1∣W∣−1 in the recursion, are welcome as further contributions but are not milestones.

Difficulty

The counting argument is elementary. The work lies in two places. First, the Moon–Moser bound 3k/33^{k/3}3k/3 is not in Mathlib and needs its own proof, and its exponential bound must be handled with real powers. Second, the type decomposition must be handled exactly: a type-3 clique KKK is charged to a pair (u,K∖{v})(u, K \setminus \{v\})(u,K∖{v}), and the charge has to be injective while uuu ranges over all vertices outside N(v)∪{v}N(v) \cup \{v\}N(v)∪{v}. The degenerate cases are real. When vvv is isolated in G[W]G[W]G[W] and W≠{v}W \ne \{v\}W={v}, the clique {v}\{v\}{v} is of type 3 and K∖{v}=∅K \setminus \{v\} = \varnothingK∖{v}=∅. The peeling for weakly ccc-closed graphs must also follow the given vertex ordering, with closure checked in the shrinking induced subgraphs rather than in GGG.

Formalization scope

  • Graphs on nnn vertices are SimpleGraph (Fin n). Auxiliary statements are generic over a finite type with decidable equality.
  • The weakly closed ordering is a permutation σ\sigmaσ of Fin n with vi=σ(i)v_i = \sigma(i)vi​=σ(i). The set {vi,…,vn}\{v_i, \dots, v_n\}{vi​,…,vn​} is {x:i≤σ−1(x)}\{x : i \le \sigma^{-1}(x)\}{x:i≤σ−1(x)}.
  • Common-neighbour counts are Set.ncard, which is exact on a finite type. "At least ccc" is c≤∣⋅∣c \le |\cdot|c≤∣⋅∣, not c<∣⋅∣c < |\cdot|c<∣⋅∣.
  • Maximal cliques of G[W]G[W]G[W] are counted as finite vertex sets K⊆WK \subseteq WK⊆W of the ambient type that are maximal among cliques contained in WWW. Removing vvv from the current graph G[W]G[W]G[W] is G[W∖{v}]G[W \setminus \{v\}]G[W∖{v}], and G[N(v)∩N(u)]G[N(v) \cap N(u)]G[N(v)∩N(u)] is G[W∩N(v)∩N(u)]G[W \cap N(v) \cap N(u)]G[W∩N(v)∩N(u)].
  • All bounds are real numbers: 3(c−1)/33^{(c-1)/3}3(c−1)/3 and 3∣W∣/33^{|W|/3}3∣W∣/3 are real powers.
  • The hypotheses c≥1c \ge 1c≥1 and n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 are on the page. The second is needed, since the graph with no vertices has one maximal clique, the empty one.
  • No hypothesis is added relative to the paper. In property C, "u∉N(v)u \notin N(v)u∈/N(v)" is read as u∉N(v)∪{v}u \notin N(v) \cup \{v\}u∈/N(v)∪{v}, as in Figure 2 and in (1).
  • The paper's F(⋅,c)F(\cdot, c)F(⋅,c) is a maximum over graphs. The milestones use the actual count of the relevant induced subgraph instead, which is at most FFF; the goals bound the count for every graph in the class, which is the same content.

Three trivializing readings are ruled out. The count is of maximal cliques, not of all cliques or of cliques of a given size. A bad pair needs at least ccc common neighbours, not more than ccc. In the weakly closed definition, common neighbours are counted inside {vi,…,vn}\{v_i, \dots, v_n\}{vi​,…,vn​}, not in GGG; counting them in GGG would make the hypothesis stronger and the theorem weaker.

A complete development needs a Moon–Moser lemma for induced subgraphs, the injections behind milestones 2 and 4, and a peeling induction over a vertex ordering. The first two are reusable for any maximal-clique counting argument. The induced-subgraph counts numMaxCliquesIn are also used by the later missions of this series, which repeat the definitions in their own namespaces.

Selected references

  • J. Fox, T. Roughgarden, C. Seshadhri, F. Wei, N. Wein, Finding cliques in social networks: a new distribution-free model, arXiv:1804.07431v1, 2018; SIAM Journal on Computing 49(2), 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.07431v1, https://doi.org/10.1137/18M1210459
  • J. W. Moon, L. Moser, On cliques in graphs, Israel Journal of Mathematics 3, 23–28, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02760024
  • M. S. Granovetter, The strength of weak ties, American Journal of Sociology 78(6), 1360–1380, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1086/225469
  • E. Tomita, A. Tanaka, H. Takahashi, The worst-case time complexity for generating all maximal cliques and computational experiments, Theoretical Computer Science 363(1), 28–42, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcs.2006.06.015
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Generalized Turán Problems for Even Cycles 6: The Maximum Number of (2l+1)-Cycles in a Graph with No Cycle of Length 3, …, 2l or 2k+1 Is Ω(n^{1+1/(2k+2)}) and O(n²)Research Paper

Motivation

Generalized Turán problems ask for the maximum number of copies of a fixed graph HHH in an nnn-vertex graph that avoids a family F\mathcal FF of forbidden subgraphs. The ordinary Turán number counts edges (H=K2H = K_2H=K2​); Alon and Shikhelman (arXiv:1506.03397) started the systematic study of the general function ex(n,H,F)\mathrm{ex}(n, H, \mathcal F)ex(n,H,F), building on earlier results of Erdős on cliques, Bollobás and Győri on pentagons in triangle-free graphs, and Győri and Li on triangles in graphs without a long odd or even cycle. Counting cycles in graphs with forbidden cycles is closely tied to extremal problems for Berge hypergraphs, and the constructions used are sparse hypergraphs of large girth.

Gerbner, Győri, Methuku and Vizer, Generalized Turán problems for even cycles (arXiv:1712.07079, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B, 2020), determine or bound ex(n,Cℓ,F)\mathrm{ex}(n, C_{\ell}, \mathcal F)ex(n,Cℓ​,F) for many cycle families. This mission covers one of their results in §6.2: the number of odd cycles C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​ in a graph in which every shorter cycle is forbidden and, in addition, one longer odd cycle C2k+1C_{2k+1}C2k+1​ is forbidden. Its companion (Theorem 17, a separate mission of this series) forbids a longer even cycle C2kC_{2k}C2k​ instead, and there the paper obtains a sub-quadratic upper bound; with an odd extra cycle only a quadratic upper bound is proved.

Setting

All graphs are finite and simple. For an integer a≥3a \ge 3a≥3, CaC_aCa​ is the cycle of length aaa. For a set AAA of integers a≥3a \ge 3a≥3, write CA={Ca:a∈A}\mathcal C_A = \{C_a : a \in A\}CA​={Ca​:a∈A}; a graph is CA\mathcal C_ACA​-free if it contains no CaC_aCa​ with a∈Aa \in Aa∈A as a (not necessarily induced) subgraph. The family C2l\mathcal C_{2l}C2l​ consists of all cycles C3,C4,…,C2lC_3, C_4, \dots, C_{2l}C3​,C4​,…,C2l​.

For graphs HHH and GGG, N(H,G)\mathcal N(H, G)N(H,G) is the number of copies of HHH in GGG: subgraphs of GGG isomorphic to HHH, counted without labelling. The generalized Turán number is

ex(n,H,F)=max⁡{N(H,G):G has n vertices and contains no member of F}.\mathrm{ex}(n, H, \mathcal F) = \max\{\mathcal N(H, G) : G \text{ has } n \text{ vertices and contains no member of } \mathcal F\}.ex(n,H,F)=max{N(H,G):G has n vertices and contains no member of F}.

For a vertex vvv of GGG, Ni(v)N_i(v)Ni​(v) is the set of vertices at distance exactly iii from vvv.

A hypergraph is a finite set of hyperedges (vertex sets); it is rrr-uniform if each hyperedge has rrr vertices. A Berge cycle of length j≥2j \ge 2j≥2 is a sequence v1,h1,v2,h2,…,vj,hj,v1v_1, h_1, v_2, h_2, \dots, v_j, h_j, v_1v1​,h1​,v2​,h2​,…,vj​,hj​,v1​ of distinct vertices and distinct hyperedges with vi,vi+1∈hiv_i, v_{i+1} \in h_ivi​,vi+1​∈hi​ and vj,v1∈hjv_j, v_1 \in h_jvj​,v1​∈hj​. The girth of a hypergraph is the length of its shortest Berge cycle; "girth at least sss" means there is no Berge cycle of length 2,…,s−12, \dots, s-12,…,s−1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 18

For all integers k>l≥2k > l \ge 2k>l≥2, as n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞,

Ω(n1+12k+2)=ex(n,C2l+1,C2l∪{C2k+1})=O(n2).\Omega\big(n^{1+\frac{1}{2k+2}}\big) = \mathrm{ex}\big(n, C_{2l+1}, \mathcal C_{2l} \cup \{C_{2k+1}\}\big) = O(n^2).Ω(n1+2k+21​)=ex(n,C2l+1​,C2l​∪{C2k+1​})=O(n2).

Both the lower and the upper bound are part of the goal; the implied constants may depend on kkk and lll only.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 29 (Nešetřil–Rödl). For r≥2r \ge 2r≥2, s≥3s \ge 3s≥3 and all large nnn there is an rrr-uniform hypergraph on nnn vertices of girth at least sss with at least n1+1/sn^{1+1/s}n1+1/s hyperedges.
  2. The construction. Replacing each hyperedge of a (2l+1)(2l+1)(2l+1)-uniform hypergraph of girth at least 2k+22k+22k+2 by a copy of C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​ yields a graph with no cycle of length at most 2k+12k+12k+1 other than 2l+12l+12l+1, and with at least as many copies of C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​ as hyperedges.
  3. Cycles through a vertex. In a C2l∪{C2k+1}\mathcal C_{2l} \cup \{C_{2k+1}\}C2l​∪{C2k+1​}-free graph there is no edge inside Ni(v)N_i(v)Ni​(v) for i<li < li<l, every C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​ through vvv uses exactly one edge inside Nl(v)N_l(v)Nl​(v), and so the number of C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​'s through vvv is at most the number of edges inside Nl(v)N_l(v)Nl​(v).
  4. Claim 19. In a C2l∪{C2k+1}\mathcal C_{2l} \cup \{C_{2k+1}\}C2l​∪{C2k+1​}-free graph the number of edges inside Nl(v)N_l(v)Nl​(v) is at most C(k,l) ∣Nl(v)∣≤C(k,l) nC(k,l)\,|N_l(v)| \le C(k,l)\, nC(k,l)∣Nl​(v)∣≤C(k,l)n.

The supporting published theorem erdos_gallai_path_conjecture (the Erdős–Gallai path theorem: a graph on nnn vertices with no path of m+1m+1m+1 edges has at most mn/2mn/2mn/2 edges) is included as a reference item; the paper's proof of Claim 19 invokes it.

Significance

Theorem 18 shows that forbidding all cycles up to length 2l2l2l together with one odd cycle C2k+1C_{2k+1}C2k+1​ still permits polynomially more than nnn copies of C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​, at least n1+1/(2k+2)n^{1 + 1/(2k+2)}n1+1/(2k+2), and at most O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2). Compared with Theorem 17, where an even cycle C2kC_{2k}C2k​ is forbidden and the count is O(n1+l/(l+1))O(n^{1+l/(l+1)})O(n1+l/(l+1)), it isolates the role of the parity of the extra forbidden cycle. The authors conjecture that the true order is sub-quadratic (Conjecture 34, §8 of the paper), so the gap between the two exponents in Theorem 18 is a stated open question; a formal development of the known bounds is the base on which any improvement would be checked.

The result is proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces: a reusable encoding of generalized Turán numbers for cycle families on top of Mathlib's copyCount; Berge cycles and the girth of uniform hypergraphs; distance layers Ni(v)N_i(v)Ni​(v); and a formal statement of the Nešetřil–Rödl existence theorem, which is used as a black box by many extremal constructions.

Difficulty

The upper bound requires careful bookkeeping of distance layers around a vertex in a graph without short cycles. The obvious estimate, bounding the copies of C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​ through vvv by the number of pairs of vertices of Nl(v)N_l(v)Nl​(v), gives only ∣Nl(v)∣2|N_l(v)|^2∣Nl​(v)∣2 per vertex and hence nothing better than the trivial bound overall; the content of Claim 19 is that forbidding the single cycle C2k+1C_{2k+1}C2k+1​ makes the edge count inside Nl(v)N_l(v)Nl​(v) linear, and the parity of 2k+12k+12k+1 is used essentially.

The lower bound rests on Theorem 29, a cited result that is not proved in the paper, and for which Mathlib has no supporting theory of uniform hypergraphs or Berge cycles. For the construction itself, the paper only asserts that the cycle-replacement graph has no short cycle other than the inserted C2l+1C_{2l+1}C2l+1​'s; a cycle of the graph may wander through many hyperedges, and relating it to the girth of the hypergraph is the step a formal proof has to supply.

Formalization scope

  • Vertices of an nnn-vertex graph are Fin n; graphs are SimpleGraph (Fin n). Cycles are Mathlib's SimpleGraph.cycleGraph, and N(H,G)\mathcal N(H, G)N(H,G) is Mathlib's unlabelled copyCount.
  • C2l∪{C2k+1}\mathcal C_{2l} \cup \{C_{2k+1}\}C2l​∪{C2k+1​} is encoded as the set of lengths Set.Icc 3 (2 * l) ∪ {2 * k + 1}: every length 3,…,2l3, \dots, 2l3,…,2l, not only 2l2l2l.
  • ex(n,H,CA)\mathrm{ex}(n, H, \mathcal C_A)ex(n,H,CA​) is the supremum of a nonempty finite set of natural numbers, hence a true maximum (checked in a sanity file).
  • Ni(v)N_i(v)Ni​(v) uses the extended distance edist, so vertices of other components lie in no layer.
  • Hypergraphs are Finset (Finset V); "girth at least sss" is a predicate (no Berge cycle of length 2,…,s−12, \dots, s-12,…,s−1), not an infimum, so a hypergraph without Berge cycles has every girth.
  • Ω\OmegaΩ and OOO are Mathlib's Asymptotics.IsBigO along atTop, with real exponents; both directions of the goal are stated.
  • Claim 19's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) is a single constant chosen before nnn, the graph and the vertex. The milestone on cycles through vvv uses the page's C2l∪{C2k+1}\mathcal C_{2l} \cup \{C_{2k+1}\}C2l​∪{C2k+1​}-freeness assumption.

A formalization that states only the upper bound, uses labelled copies, lets a constant depend on the graph, omits the short cycles C3,…,C2l−1C_3, \dots, C_{2l-1}C3​,…,C2l−1​ from the forbidden family, or defines ex\mathrm{ex}ex by a supremum that can take a junk value, does not prove this theorem.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of Theorem 29, and general lemmas on breadth-first layers in graphs of large girth, which are reusable by the companion missions of this series.

Selected references

  • D. Gerbner, E. Győri, A. Methuku, M. Vizer, Generalized Turán problems for even cycles, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B (2020); arXiv:1712.07079v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1712.07079, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jctb.2020.05.005
  • N. Alon, C. Shikhelman, Many T copies in H-free graphs, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 121 (2016). https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.03397
  • J. Nešetřil, V. Rödl, On a probabilistic graph-theoretical method, Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 72(2), 417–421 (1978). https://www.ams.org/journals/proc/1978-072-02/
  • P. Erdős, T. Gallai, On maximal paths and circuits of graphs, Acta Math. Acad. Sci. Hungar. 10 (1959). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02024498
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems 1: Every Loopless Matroid Polytope Has a (b, 1−b)-Selectable Deterministic Greedy OCRSResearch Paper

Motivation

In online selection, items reveal information one at a time, and each decision to accept an item is irrevocable. A matroid constraint permits some subsets and excludes others; it covers choices such as selecting linearly independent vectors or acyclic edges. A fractional solution can assign an acceptance probability to each item, but independent activations can produce a set that violates the constraint. An online contention resolution scheme (OCRS) turns these activations into a feasible selection while respecting the order in which items arrive. The matroid result of Feldman, Svensson and Zenklusen gives a guarantee that survives even when an adversary knows all random outcomes before choosing the arrival order.

This mission concerns the paper's matroid theorem, Theorem 2.1. The same paper develops schemes for matching and knapsack constraints and a rule for combining schemes for intersecting constraints. Those results are separate missions in this series. Here the central question is how much of a fractional matroid point can be retained by a deterministic greedy rule as each active item is revealed.

Setting

Let NNN be a finite ground set and let MMM be a matroid on NNN. Its independent subsets form a down-closed family F\mathcal FF: if III is independent, every subset of III is independent. The rank r(S)r(S)r(S) of S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N is the maximum size of an independent subset of SSS. The matroid independence polytope is

PF={x∈R≥0N:x(S):=∑e∈Sxe≤r(S) for all S⊆N}.P_{\mathcal F}=\left\{x\in\mathbb R^N_{\ge0}:x(S):=\sum_{e\in S}x_e\le r(S)\text{ for all }S\subseteq N\right\}.PF​={x∈R≥0N​:x(S):=e∈S∑​xe​≤r(S) for all S⊆N}.

Its points have 0≤xe≤10\le x_e\le10≤xe​≤1. For a point xxx, the active set R(x)R(x)R(x) contains each eee independently with probability xex_exe​. A deterministic greedy OCRS assigns a down-closed family Fx⊆F\mathcal F_x\subseteq\mathcal FFx​⊆F to xxx and accepts an active element when adding it to the already accepted set stays in Fx\mathcal F_xFx​. The empty set belongs to every Fx\mathcal F_xFx​. The rule depends on xxx before the active set and arrival order are revealed.

An element eee is selectable for an active set AAA if I∪{e}∈FxI\cup\{e\}\in\mathcal F_xI∪{e}∈Fx​ for every I⊆AI\subseteq AI⊆A with I∈FxI\in\mathcal F_xI∈Fx​. A greedy OCRS is (b,c)(b,c)(b,c)-selectable if this event has probability at least ccc for every x∈bPFx\in bP_{\mathcal F}x∈bPF​ and every e∈Ne\in Ne∈N. The event implies that eee can be added regardless of which eligible active elements arrived first. These definitions are from §1.1 of the paper.

Formalization targets

Matroid OCRS

For every b∈[0,1]b\in[0,1]b∈[0,1] and every finite loopless matroid MMM, the target is a deterministic greedy OCRS with

Pr⁡[I∪{e}∈Fx for all I⊆R(x), I∈Fx]≥1−bfor every x∈bPF, e∈N.\Pr\left[I\cup\{e\}\in\mathcal F_x\text{ for all }I\subseteq R(x),\ I\in\mathcal F_x\right]\ge 1-b \quad\text{for every }x\in bP_{\mathcal F},\ e\in N.Pr[I∪{e}∈Fx​ for all I⊆R(x), I∈Fx​]≥1−bfor every x∈bPF​, e∈N.

The loopless condition is a disclosed correction to the printed Theorem 2.1: a loop cannot belong to any independent singleton, so its selectability is zero. The printed bound would demand positive selectability for that loop whenever b<1b<1b<1. The theorem keeps the paper's constant 1−b1-b1−b exactly.

Supporting targets

The milestones reproduce six statements from §2.1–2.1.1, in attack order: validity of a family defined by a chain ∅=Nℓ⊊⋯⊊N0=N\varnothing=N_\ell\subsetneq\cdots\subsetneq N_0=N∅=Nℓ​⊊⋯⊊N0​=N of matroid minors (independence of the union of layer-wise independent sets is Soto, Theorem 5.1); a characterization of selectability through span in one layer; monotonicity of the first chain set as coordinates of xxx increase; the description of the base polytope PB={x∈PF:x(N)=r(N)}P_{\mathcal B}=\{x\in P_{\mathcal F}:x(N)=r(N)\}PB​={x∈PF​:x(N)=r(N)} as the set of maximal vectors of PFP_{\mathcal F}PF​; the weighted span bound of Lemma 2.4,

∑e∈NxePr⁡[e∈span⁡(R(x)∪S)]≤b⋅(x(N)+(1−b) r(S)),\sum_{e\in N}x_e\Pr[e\in\operatorname{span}(R(x)\cup S)]\le b\cdot\bigl(x(N)+(1-b)\,r(S)\bigr),e∈N∑​xe​Pr[e∈span(R(x)∪S)]≤b⋅(x(N)+(1−b)r(S)),

strict when S≠∅S\neq\varnothingS=∅; and the proper-inclusion conclusion S⊊NS\subsetneq NS⊊N of Corollary 2.5. They expose the distinct matroid and probability claims on which the main theorem rests.

Significance

The theorem gives a fixed greedy family for each fractional point, with a per-element probability guarantee that is independent of the arrival order. Offline contention resolution schemes for matroids were introduced by Chekuri, Vondrák and Zenklusen; the online, almighty-adversary version here is stronger. A solver can use that guarantee as the matroid component in larger online selection problems. In the source paper it feeds the intersection and application results; those applications require further models and statements beyond this mission. The factor 1−b1-b1−b makes the tradeoff explicit: using a more heavily scaled fractional point raises the risk of contention.

The result is proved in the cited paper. This mission asks for a machine-checked Lean proof of its corrected statement and the source's supporting claims. A successful development would add reusable finite representations of independent activation, matroid polytope inequalities, span probabilities, and chain families. It would also make the loop boundary explicit, preventing a formally false version of the printed theorem from being published as a target.

Difficulty

Independent activation does not itself respect matroid independence. A greedy family that simply contains every independent set can make an element unavailable after earlier active elements are accepted, and the arrival order can expose the worst such history. The central issue is therefore a uniform selectability event: the same element must remain addable after every feasible subset of the active set. The paper measures that obstruction through spans in successive matroid minors. The first chain set must be proper so that the construction can continue, which is why the strict part of the weighted span inequality matters.

Formalization scope

The ground set is a finite Lean type, subsets are Finsets, and Mathlib's Matroid supplies independence, closure, contraction and restriction. Matroid rank is converted from Mathlib's extended natural rank to a real number; finiteness makes this conversion finite on every subset. The independence and base polytopes are defined by the paper's inequalities. The scalar multiple bPbPbP is pointwise set scalar multiplication, including b=0b=0b=0.

Probabilities are finite sums of product weights over all active sets. In particular, the event in Lemma 2.4 uses span⁡(R(x)∪S)\operatorname{span}(R(x)\cup S)span(R(x)∪S), whereas the recurrence defining SSS uses span⁡((R(x)∪Si)∖{e})\operatorname{span}((R(x)\cup S_i)\setminus\{e\})span((R(x)∪Si​)∖{e}). These are separate definitions. Every point used for activation lies in [0,1]N[0,1]^N[0,1]N, as enforced by the polytope and b∈[0,1]b\in[0,1]b∈[0,1]. The base-polytope condition on Corollary 2.5 is the standing assumption stated before the lemma in the source.

The loopless condition applies to the goal, to Corollary 2.5, and to the strict clause of Lemma 2.4 only; its non-strict clause, the chain statements and the monotonicity statement hold for every matroid and are stated without it. Three trivializing formalizations are ruled out: every greedy family must contain the empty set, so an empty family cannot satisfy selectability vacuously; every member of a greedy family must be independent in MMM, so Fx=2N\mathcal F_x=2^NFx​=2N is not admissible; and every point used for activation lies in [0,1]N[0,1]^N[0,1]N, so Pr⁡[R(x)=A]\Pr[R(x)=A]Pr[R(x)=A] is a genuine probability. The quantified scheme depends only on xxx, and its success condition ranges over every feasible subset of the realized active set. Contributions that establish the chain family's independence, finite probability identities, and rank or closure facts are within scope. Polynomial-time implementation and the Monte Carlo estimates of Lemma 2.6 are outside this mission's mathematical target.

Selected references

  • Moran Feldman, Ola Svensson and Rico Zenklusen, Online Contention Resolution Schemes, arXiv:1508.00142v2, 2015; published as Online Contention Resolution Schemes with Applications to Bayesian Selection Problems, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2021. Preprint.
  • Chandra Chekuri, Jan Vondrák and Rico Zenklusen, Submodular Function Maximization via the Multilinear Relaxation and Contention Resolution Schemes, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2014. arXiv:1105.4593.
  • José A. Soto, Matroid Secretary Problem in the Random-Assignment Model, SIAM Journal on Computing, 2013. arXiv:1007.2140.
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Graph TheoryLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Cost Flows in Graphs with Unit Capacities: When the Second Phase of a Cost Scale Starts, at Most 3λ Excess Is Left for λ = √m and 36λ for λ = n^(2/3)Research Paper

Motivation

Minimum-cost flow is a standard model for routing a quantity through a network while paying a cost on each arc. Unit capacities arise when each input arc can carry at most one unit; they include flow formulations of several matching and assignment problems. Goldberg, Kaplan, Hed and Tarjan analyze a cost-scaling algorithm for this setting. Their second-phase argument depends on a bound on the excess left in a pseudoflow when every excess vertex has undergone enough potential increases. This mission formalizes that bound, Lemma 5 of their STACS 2015 paper. The published paper gives an O(min⁡{m1/2,n2/3} mlog⁡(nC))O(\min\{m^{1/2},n^{2/3}\}\,m\log(nC))O(min{m1/2,n2/3}mlog(nC)) running-time bound for its unit-capacity algorithm; the running-time statement itself is outside this mission.

Setting

A network has a finite vertex set VVV and an arc set EEE that contains both orientations of each input arc. Write n=∣V∣n=|V|n=∣V∣. Every input arc has capacity one; its reverse has capacity zero and opposite cost. Write mmm for the number of input arcs, so ∣E∣=2m|E|=2m∣E∣=2m. The paper assumes no parallel or antiparallel input arcs, allowing an arc to be identified by its ordered endpoints. Costs are antisymmetric between orientations.

A pseudoflow fff assigns an antisymmetric quantity to each arc and respects its capacity. Its excess at vvv is the sum ef(v)e_f(v)ef​(v) of incoming flow. Positive excess means that vvv has flow to discharge; negative excess is a deficit. A circulation is a pseudoflow with zero excess at every vertex. An arc is residual for fff when its residual capacity uf(v,w)=u(v,w)−f(v,w)u_f(v,w)=u(v,w)-f(v,w)uf​(v,w)=u(v,w)−f(v,w) is positive. For vertex prices ppp, its reduced cost is cp(v,w)=c(v,w)−p(v)+p(w)c_p(v,w)=c(v,w)-p(v)+p(w)cp​(v,w)=c(v,w)−p(v)+p(w). A pseudoflow is ε\varepsilonε-optimal at ppp when every residual arc has reduced cost at least −ε-\varepsilon−ε. These are the paper's conventions on p. 408.

At the start of a cost scale, let f′f'f′ be a circulation that is 2ε2\varepsilon2ε-optimal at prices p′p'p′. During the scale, fff is a pseudoflow that is ε\varepsilonε-optimal at prices ppp. The potential increase in scale units is d(v)=(p(v)−p′(v))/εd(v)=(p(v)-p'(v))/\varepsilond(v)=(p(v)−p′(v))/ε. Put λ=min⁡{m,n2/3}\lambda=\min\{\sqrt m,n^{2/3}\}λ=min{m​,n2/3}. The second phase begins when every excess vertex has d(v)≥λd(v)\ge\lambdad(v)≥λ; the paper also states that every deficit then has d(v)=0d(v)=0d(v)=0 and that the levels d(v)d(v)d(v) are integral. The remaining excess is X(f)=∑v:ef(v)>0ef(v)X(f)=\sum_{v:e_f(v)>0}e_f(v)X(f)=∑v:ef​(v)>0​ef​(v).

The comparison graph has arcs E+={(v,w)∈E:f′(v,w)>f(v,w)}E^+=\{(v,w)\in E:f'(v,w)>f(v,w)\}E+={(v,w)∈E:f′(v,w)>f(v,w)} and vertices VVV. An excess–deficit cut Y⊆E+Y\subseteq E^+Y⊆E+ meets every path in this graph from an excess vertex to a deficit vertex. Thus a cut is measured among comparison arcs, not among arbitrary arcs of the original network. Lemmas 3 and 4 of the paper establish the level and cut bounds on which the excess estimate rests.

Formalization targets

The goal is Lemma 5 on p. 410, stated with both constants obtained in its proof. Under the cost-scale conditions above, and the divisibility conventions in footnotes 5–6, its two cases are

λ=m⟹X(f)≤3λ,\lambda=\sqrt m\quad\Longrightarrow\quad X(f)\le 3\lambda,λ=m​⟹X(f)≤3λ, λ=n2/3⟹X(f)≤36λ.\lambda=n^{2/3}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad X(f)\le36\lambda.λ=n2/3⟹X(f)≤36λ.

The second case also assumes that six divides the integer λ\lambdaλ; the first uses divisibility by three. The goal keeps the two conclusions separate so that the stronger 3λ3\lambda3λ bound is retained when m\sqrt mm​ determines the scale. Its milestone list follows the paper: Lemma 3 bounds d(v)−d(w)d(v)-d(w)d(v)−d(w) by three on an arc of E+E^+E+; Lemma 4 bounds total excess by a cut; and the proof of Lemma 5 supplies the cut bands and the two size estimates. The bands use the exact three-level and six-level ranges printed on p. 410.

Significance

The result connects a condition on price increases to a numerical bound on the amount of flow still needing discharge. Combined with the paper's time per unit of remaining excess, this is the bound needed for its second-phase running-time estimate. The two regimes show how the same cost-scale state can be controlled by either the number of input arcs or the number of vertices. Without the excess bound, the paper's argument gives no comparable limit on the remaining work at the phase transition.

The paper proves Lemma 5, but this particular unit-capacity excess argument has no matching theorem in the platform catalog checked for this mission. The network, circulation and pseudoflow interfaces are already published as reusable definitions from earlier cost-scaling work. A completed machine-checked development would add the cut argument and band counts to those interfaces. Those facts can also support other analyses that compare an entry circulation with an intermediate pseudoflow; this mission does not claim to formalize the algorithm's entire execution or its running-time model.

Difficulty

The main obstacle is linking local price inequalities to a global bound on excess. A reduced-cost inequality controls a single residual arc, while excess may move through a path and is measured over many vertices. The comparison graph G+G^+G+ is essential: on a residual arc outside E+E^+E+, the level difference used by Lemma 3 is not available. Counting all residual arcs as if they were comparison arcs would therefore not justify the cut bound. There is a separate counting issue: the represented network has both directions of each input arc, so using ∣E∣|E|∣E∣ for mmm changes the constant in the square-root case.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the network by a finite symmetric arc set with real capacities and antisymmetric real costs. A local unit-capacity predicate marks each reverse pair as capacities (1,0)(1,0)(1,0) or (0,1)(0,1)(0,1); mmm counts the capacity-one orientations. Flows are real valued as on p. 408. Integer costs on that page are generalized to real costs because Lemmas 3–5 use only antisymmetry and reduced-cost inequalities. No result here depends on cost integrality.

The formalization takes the cost-scale state as hypotheses: ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, entry circulation and 2ε2\varepsilon2ε-optimality, current ε\varepsilonε-optimality, integral levels, level at least λ\lambdaλ at excess vertices, and zero level at deficits. It takes λ\lambdaλ as a natural number equal to min⁡{m,n2/3}\min\{\sqrt m,n^{2/3}\}min{m​,n2/3} and records the paper's divisibility simplifications. The indexed pigeonhole milestones also require λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 so their index ranges are nonempty; the goal includes the zero-arc boundary without requiring an index. Cuts use reachability after deleting a subset of E+E^+E+, equivalent to meeting every excess-to-deficit path. The proof of Lemma 5 prints “cut in GfG_fGf​”; the formalized claim uses G+G^+G+, the graph for which Lemma 3 gives the required level control and Lemma 4 states its bound.

The definition layer, path-cut lemma and finite counting arguments are the reusable infrastructure. Contributions that establish these exact statements, their necessary elementary flow identities, or a machine-checked goal proof are in scope. Counting mmm with reverse arcs, allowing cuts outside E+E^+E+, using arbitrary real levels in place of integral ones, or replacing both cases by the weaker 36λ36\lambda36λ bound does not express this target.

Selected references

  • A. V. Goldberg, H. Kaplan, S. Hed and R. E. Tarjan, Minimum Cost Flows in Graphs with Unit Capacities, 32nd International Symposium on Theoretical Aspects of Computer Science, LIPIcs 30, pp. 406–419, 2015. doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.STACS.2015.406.
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Information TheoryMachine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

The Statistical Complexity of Interactive Decision Making I: Subadditivity of Squared Hellinger Distance for Sequential Laws, D²_H(P,Q) ≤ 10² log(n)·E_P[Σᵢ D²_H(P⁽ⁱ⁾, Q⁽ⁱ⁾)] for n ≥ 2Research Paper

Motivation

Lower bounds for interactive decision making (bandits, reinforcement learning, and the general decision making with structured observations framework of Foster, Kakade, Qian and Rakhlin, arXiv:2112.13487) compare what a learner observes under two different environments. A learner's whole interaction history is generated one step at a time: each observation is drawn from a conditional law that depends on everything seen before. Statistical estimation guarantees, by contrast, are stated one step at a time, as bounds on the divergence between the conditional laws at each round. Passing from the per-step guarantees to a statement about the laws of entire histories requires a chain rule for the divergence in use.

For the Kullback–Leibler divergence the chain rule is an identity. The paper's guarantees, however, are stated in the squared Hellinger distance, which is bounded, symmetric, and the natural loss for density estimation with the logarithmic loss. Hellinger distance has no exact chain rule. Lemma A.13 of the paper (App. A.2, p. 73) supplies an approximate one, losing a factor logarithmic in the number of steps, and the paper uses it in the proof of its main regret lower bound (Theorem 3.2, via App. C.1.3).

Setting

Fix n∈Nn \in \mathbb Nn∈N and finite sets X1,…,Xn\mathcal X_1, \dots, \mathcal X_nX1​,…,Xn​. A sequence is x=(x1,…,xn)x = (x_1, \dots, x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​) with xi∈Xix_i \in \mathcal X_ixi​∈Xi​, and x1:i−1=(x1,…,xi−1)x_{1:i-1} = (x_1, \dots, x_{i-1})x1:i−1​=(x1​,…,xi−1​) denotes its prefix; X(i−1)=∏t=1i−1Xt\mathcal X^{(i-1)} = \prod_{t=1}^{i-1} \mathcal X_tX(i−1)=∏t=1i−1​Xt​.

For probability distributions p,qp, qp,q on a finite set, the squared Hellinger distance, the Hellinger distance and the Kullback–Leibler divergence are

DH2(p,q)=∑a(p(a)−q(a))2,DH=DH2,DKL(p ∥ q)=∑ap(a)log⁡p(a)q(a),D^2_{\mathrm H}(p, q) = \sum_a \big(\sqrt{p(a)} - \sqrt{q(a)}\big)^2, \qquad D_{\mathrm H} = \sqrt{D^2_{\mathrm H}}, \qquad D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\,\|\,q) = \sum_a p(a) \log\frac{p(a)}{q(a)},DH2​(p,q)=a∑​(p(a)​−q(a)​)2,DH​=DH2​​,DKL​(p∥q)=a∑​p(a)logq(a)p(a)​,

the last one set to +∞+\infty+∞ when ppp charges a point that qqq does not. Note that the paper's DH2D^2_{\mathrm H}DH2​ carries no factor 12\tfrac1221​, so 0≤DH2≤20 \le D^2_{\mathrm H} \le 20≤DH2​≤2.

A family of sequential kernels P=(P(i))i=1nP = (P^{(i)})_{i=1}^nP=(P(i))i=1n​ assigns to each iii and each prefix x1:i−1x_{1:i-1}x1:i−1​ a probability distribution P(i)(⋅∣x1:i−1)P^{(i)}(\cdot \mid x_{1:i-1})P(i)(⋅∣x1:i−1​) on Xi\mathcal X_iXi​. Its sequential law is the law of X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ under Xi∼P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1)X_i \sim P^{(i)}(\cdot \mid X_{1:i-1})Xi​∼P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1​):

P(x)=∏i=1nP(i)(xi∣x1:i−1).\mathbb P(x) = \prod_{i=1}^n P^{(i)}(x_i \mid x_{1:i-1}).P(x)=i=1∏n​P(i)(xi​∣x1:i−1​).

For a second family QQQ with law Q\mathbb QQ, the quantity controlled by per-step estimation is

EP[∑i=1nDH2(P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1),Q(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1))].\mathbb E_{\mathbb P}\Big[\sum_{i=1}^n D^2_{\mathrm H}\big(P^{(i)}(\cdot \mid X_{1:i-1}), Q^{(i)}(\cdot \mid X_{1:i-1})\big)\Big].EP​[i=1∑n​DH2​(P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1​),Q(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1​))].

In Lean these are IsSeqKernel, seqLaw and condHellingerSum, with hellingerSq and klDivDiscrete the published discrete divergences.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma A.13, (97), for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2

DH2(P,Q)≤102log⁡(n)⋅EP[∑i=1nDH2(P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1),Q(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1))].D^2_{\mathrm H}(\mathbb P, \mathbb Q) \le 10^2 \log(n) \cdot \mathbb E_{\mathbb P}\Big[\sum_{i=1}^n D^2_{\mathrm H}\big(P^{(i)}(\cdot \mid X_{1:i-1}), Q^{(i)}(\cdot \mid X_{1:i-1})\big)\Big].DH2​(P,Q)≤102log(n)⋅EP​[i=1∑n​DH2​(P(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1​),Q(i)(⋅∣X1:i−1​))].

The constant 10210^2102 is the paper's; the shape that matters downstream is the logarithmic dependence on nnn with no assumption on the kernels beyond their being probability kernels.

Companion: Lemma A.13, (98)

If V≥eV \ge eV≥e and P(i)(A∣x1:i−1)≤V Q(i)(A∣x1:i−1)P^{(i)}(A \mid x_{1:i-1}) \le V\, Q^{(i)}(A \mid x_{1:i-1})P(i)(A∣x1:i−1​)≤VQ(i)(A∣x1:i−1​) for every iii, prefix and event AAA, then DH2(P,Q)≤3log⁡(V)⋅EP[∑iDH2(P(i),Q(i))]D^2_{\mathrm H}(\mathbb P, \mathbb Q) \le 3\log(V) \cdot \mathbb E_{\mathbb P}[\sum_i D^2_{\mathrm H}(P^{(i)}, Q^{(i)})]DH2​(P,Q)≤3log(V)⋅EP​[∑i​DH2​(P(i),Q(i))].

Milestones

  1. Lemma A.10 (p. 72): DKL(p ∥ q)≤(2+log⁡V) DH2(p,q)D_{\mathrm{KL}}(p\,\|\,q) \le (2 + \log V)\, D^2_{\mathrm H}(p, q)DKL​(p∥q)≤(2+logV)DH2​(p,q) under a likelihood-ratio bound VVV (referenced, finite case).
  2. Lemma A.5 (p. 71): DTV2≤DH2≤DKLD^2_{\mathrm{TV}} \le D^2_{\mathrm H} \le D_{\mathrm{KL}}DTV2​≤DH2​≤DKL​ (referenced, finite case).
  3. The triangle inequality for DHD_{\mathrm H}DH​ (proof of Lemma A.13, p. 73).
  4. The chain rule DKL(Q ∥ P)=EQ[∑iDKL(Q(i) ∥ P(i))]D_{\mathrm{KL}}(\mathbb Q\,\|\,\mathbb P) = \mathbb E_{\mathbb Q}[\sum_i D_{\mathrm{KL}}(Q^{(i)}\,\|\,P^{(i)})]DKL​(Q∥P)=EQ​[∑i​DKL​(Q(i)∥P(i))] for sequential laws (p. 73).
  5. Convexity of DH2D^2_{\mathrm H}DH2​ in its second argument (p. 74).
  6. Lemma A.11 (p. 72), the multiplicative Pinsker-type inequality: ∣EPh−EQh∣≤2R(EPh+EQh)DH2(P,Q)|\mathbb E_P h - \mathbb E_Q h| \le \sqrt{2R(\mathbb E_P h + \mathbb E_Q h) D^2_{\mathrm H}(P, Q)}∣EP​h−EQ​h∣≤2R(EP​h+EQ​h)DH2​(P,Q)​ and EPh≤3EQh+4R DH2(P,Q)\mathbb E_P h \le 3\mathbb E_Q h + 4R\, D^2_{\mathrm H}(P, Q)EP​h≤3EQ​h+4RDH2​(P,Q) for 0≤h≤R0 \le h \le R0≤h≤R.

Significance

The result. Inequality (97) converts per-round Hellinger estimation error into a bound on the Hellinger distance between the laws of complete interaction histories, under no boundedness assumption on likelihood ratios. In the paper this is the step that lets the lower bound of Theorem 3.2 relate any algorithm's behaviour under a reference model to its behaviour under alternatives, and hence express the minimax regret through the decision-estimation coefficient. Without it, only the KL chain rule is available, which requires bounded likelihood ratios (the situation of (98)) or loses more than a logarithmic factor. Lemma A.11, a milestone here, is used independently in the same lower bound and in the paper's tabular reinforcement learning analysis.

Formalizing it. The lemma is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. The published layer on the platform has the discrete divergences and the comparisons of Lemmas A.5 and A.10; the sequential-law objects, the triangle inequality, the convexity of DH2D^2_{\mathrm H}DH2​, the discrete chain rule and Lemma A.11 are new. A completed development gives a reusable chain-rule toolkit for any later formalization of lower bounds over adaptive interaction histories.

Difficulty

The squared Hellinger distance does not tensorize along adaptive sequences: the natural attempt to write 1−12DH2(P,Q)1 - \tfrac12 D^2_{\mathrm H}(\mathbb P, \mathbb Q)1−21​DH2​(P,Q) as a product of conditional affinities fails because the conditional affinities are random, depending on the prefix, and their expectation does not factor. Bounding DH2D^2_{\mathrm H}DH2​ by DKLD_{\mathrm{KL}}DKL​ and applying the KL chain rule fails in the other direction: the conditional KL divergences are not controlled by the conditional Hellinger distances unless the likelihood ratios are bounded, and in (97) they are not. The difficulty is to obtain a bound that pays only log⁡n\log nlogn for an unbounded ratio, with explicit constants that survive the final numerical comparison.

Formalization scope

  • Finite alphabets. The paper works over measurable spaces. This mission formalizes the finite-alphabet case, as the published FoundationsRL divergence layer does: each Xi\mathcal X_iXi​ is a Fintype, distributions are probability vectors, expectations are finite sums. Coordinates are indexed by Fin n (0-based) and the alphabets may differ from coordinate to coordinate.
  • Kernels. A kernel family is a function P i x of the whole sequence that is a probability vector and depends only on the coordinates j < i; this is what makes seqLaw P the law the paper describes.
  • Added hypothesis n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 in (97). The paper states (97) for every nnn; at n=1n = 1n=1 the right side vanishes because log⁡1=0\log 1 = 0log1=0 while the left side is positive whenever P(1)≠Q(1)P^{(1)} \ne Q^{(1)}P(1)=Q(1), and the proof's last step 2(6log⁡(96n)+1896n)≤102log⁡n2(6\log(96n) + \tfrac{18}{96n}) \le 10^2\log n2(6log(96n)+96n18​)≤102logn holds only for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2. The goal is stated for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, with the constant unchanged.
  • Likelihood ratios are stated multiplicatively, P(A)≤V Q(A)P(A) \le V\,Q(A)P(A)≤VQ(A), so that a zero denominator does not make a hypothesis vacuous; KL divergences are compared to Hellinger distances in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞].
  • Lemma A.11 holds "almost surely under PPP and QQQ", which becomes: 0≤h≤R0 \le h \le R0≤h≤R at every point charged by PPP or QQQ.
  • Ruling out trivial forms. The goal's hypotheses are satisfiable with P≠Q\mathbb P \ne \mathbb QP=Q and n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 (checked in a sanity file). A formalization in which the kernels may read coordinates beyond the prefix, in which log⁡\loglog is applied to n≤1n \le 1n≤1, or in which the ratio bound of (98) is checked through a quotient that is vacuous at zero denominators, is not the paper's statement.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone and of the fact that seqLaw is a probability vector.

Selected references

  • D. J. Foster, S. M. Kakade, J. Qian, A. Rakhlin, The Statistical Complexity of Interactive Decision Making, arXiv:2112.13487v3, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2112.13487
  • Y. Yang, A. Barron, An asymptotic property of model selection criteria, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 44(1), 1998. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.650993
  • Y. Polyanskiy, Y. Wu, Lecture Notes on Information Theory, 2014. https://people.lids.mit.edu/yp/homepage/data/itlectures_v5.pdf
  • D. J. Foster, A. Rakhlin, Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making, arXiv:2312.16730v1, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16730
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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Certifying Some Distributional Robustness with Principled Adversarial Training 2: The Empirical Robustness Level E_P̂ₙ[c(T_γ(θ;Z),Z)] Concentrates Uniformly over ΘResearch Paper

Motivation

Neural networks trained by empirical risk minimization are sensitive to small adversarial perturbations of their inputs. Distributionally robust optimization addresses this by training against the worst distribution in a neighbourhood of the data distribution. Sinha, Namkoong, Volpi and Duchi (arXiv:1710.10571v5, ICLR 2018) take the neighbourhood to be a Wasserstein ball and relax the hard constraint to a Lagrangian penalty with multiplier γ\gammaγ. For large γ\gammaγ the inner maximization becomes strongly concave and is solved per data point by a transportation map TγT_\gammaTγ​, which turns each training example into its worst-case perturbation.

The average transport cost ρ^n(θ)=EP^n[c(Tγ(θ;Z),Z)]\widehat\rho_n(\theta)=\mathbb E_{\widehat P_n}[c(T_\gamma(\theta;Z),Z)]ρ​n​(θ)=EPn​​[c(Tγ​(θ;Z),Z)] is the amount of robustness the trained model actually certifies on the sample: by the paper's duality result, the empirical worst-case loss at level ρ^n(θ)\widehat\rho_n(\theta)ρ​n​(θ) is computable, and it is the certificate of robustness that the paper advertises. A certificate measured on the training sample is only useful if it transfers to the population. This mission formalizes the result that it does: ρ^n(θ)\widehat\rho_n(\theta)ρ​n​(θ) concentrates around its population counterpart, uniformly over the parameter set.

Setting

Parameters θ\thetaθ range over a set Θ⊆Rd\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^dΘ⊆Rd and data over a set Z⊆{z∈Rm:∥z∥2≤Mz}Z\subseteq\{z\in\mathbb R^m:\|z\|_2\le M_z\}Z⊆{z∈Rm:∥z∥2​≤Mz​}, both with the Euclidean norm. A transportation cost c:Z×Z→[0,∞)c:Z\times Z\to[0,\infty)c:Z×Z→[0,∞) satisfies c(z,z)=0c(z,z)=0c(z,z)=0 and Assumption A: ccc is continuous and z↦c(z,z0)z\mapsto c(z,z_0)z↦c(z,z0​) is 111-strongly convex for each z0∈Zz_0\in Zz0​∈Z. A loss ℓ(θ;z)\ell(\theta;z)ℓ(θ;z) satisfies Assumption B: its partial gradients ∇θℓ\nabla_\theta\ell∇θ​ℓ, ∇zℓ\nabla_z\ell∇z​ℓ are Lipschitz in each variable, with constants Lθθ,Lzz,Lθz,LzθL_{\theta\theta},L_{zz},L_{\theta z},L_{z\theta}Lθθ​,Lzz​,Lθz​,Lzθ​.

For γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​ the problem z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0)z\mapsto\ell(\theta;z)-\gamma c(z,z_0)z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0​) is (γ−Lzz)(\gamma-L_{zz})(γ−Lzz​)-strongly concave on ZZZ, and the transportation map is its maximizer,

Tγ(θ;z0)∈argmax⁡z∈Z{ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0)}.T_\gamma(\theta;z_0)\in\operatorname*{argmax}_{z\in Z}\{\ell(\theta;z)-\gamma c(z,z_0)\}.Tγ​(θ;z0​)∈z∈Zargmax​{ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0​)}.

Given i.i.d. samples Z1,…,Zn∼P0Z_1,\dots,Z_n\sim P_0Z1​,…,Zn​∼P0​ with P0(Z)=1P_0(Z)=1P0​(Z)=1 and empirical distribution P^n\widehat P_nPn​, the empirical robustness level and its population counterpart are

ρ^n(θ)=1n∑i=1nc(Tγ(θ;Zi),Zi),ρ(θ)=EP0[c(Tγ(θ;Z),Z)].\widehat\rho_n(\theta)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n c(T_\gamma(\theta;Z_i),Z_i),\qquad \rho(\theta)=\mathbb E_{P_0}[c(T_\gamma(\theta;Z),Z)].ρ​n​(θ)=n1​i=1∑n​c(Tγ​(θ;Zi​),Zi​),ρ(θ)=EP0​​[c(Tγ​(θ;Z),Z)].

The complexity of Θ\ThetaΘ enters through its covering number N(Θ,ϵ,∥⋅∥)N(\Theta,\epsilon,\|\cdot\|)N(Θ,ϵ,∥⋅∥), the least number of points θ1,…,θN∈Θ\theta_1,\dots,\theta_N\in\Thetaθ1​,…,θN​∈Θ such that every θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ is within ϵ\epsilonϵ of some θi\theta_iθi​ (+∞+\infty+∞ if there is no finite such family).

Two alternative regularity conditions close the setting, with a constant Lc>0L_c>0Lc​>0: (i) ccc is LcL_cLc​-Lipschitz on ZZZ in each argument; or (ii) ℓ(θ;z)∈[0,Mℓ]\ell(\theta;z)\in[0,M_\ell]ℓ(θ;z)∈[0,Mℓ​] and z↦ℓ(θ;z)z\mapsto\ell(\theta;z)z↦ℓ(θ;z) is γLc\gamma L_cγLc​-Lipschitz. Put K=2LcMzK=2L_cM_zK=2Lc​Mz​ in case (i) and K=Mℓ/γK=M_\ell/\gammaK=Mℓ​/γ in case (ii).

Formalization targets

Goal: the uniform tail bound of §B.7

For every t>0t>0t>0,

P(sup⁡θ∈Θ∣ρ^n(θ)−ρ(θ)∣≥t)≤2 N(Θ,(γ−Lzz)t4LcLzθ,∥⋅∥2)exp⁡(−nt28K2).\mathbb P\Bigl(\sup_{\theta\in\Theta}|\widehat\rho_n(\theta)-\rho(\theta)|\ge t\Bigr)\le 2\,N\Bigl(\Theta,\frac{(\gamma-L_{zz})t}{4L_cL_{z\theta}},\|\cdot\|_2\Bigr)\exp\Bigl(-\frac{nt^2}{8K^2}\Bigr).P(θ∈Θsup​∣ρ​n​(θ)−ρ(θ)∣≥t)≤2N(Θ,4Lc​Lzθ​(γ−Lzz​)t​,∥⋅∥2​)exp(−8K2nt2​).

In case (i), 8K2=32Lc2Mz28K^2=32L_c^2M_z^28K2=32Lc2​Mz2​ and this is exactly the last display of the proof of Theorem 4 (p. 44); case (ii) is the "identical reasoning" the paper invokes with K=Mℓ/γK=M_\ell/\gammaK=Mℓ​/γ. Θ\ThetaΘ is an arbitrary subset of Rd\mathbb R^dRd: no compactness is assumed, and an infinite covering number makes the bound vacuous rather than false.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. (4): strong concavity of z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0)z\mapsto\ell(\theta;z)-\gamma c(z,z_0)z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0​) with modulus γ−Lzz\gamma-L_{zz}γ−Lzz​;
  2. (16): ∥Tγ(θ1;z)−Tγ(θ2;z)∥≤Lzθγ−Lzz∥θ1−θ2∥\|T_\gamma(\theta_1;z)-T_\gamma(\theta_2;z)\|\le\frac{L_{z\theta}}{\gamma-L_{zz}}\|\theta_1-\theta_2\|∥Tγ​(θ1​;z)−Tγ​(θ2​;z)∥≤γ−Lzz​Lzθ​​∥θ1​−θ2​∥;
  3. Lemma 5: the transported cost is LcLzθγ−Lzz\frac{L_cL_{z\theta}}{\gamma-L_{zz}}γ−Lzz​Lc​Lzθ​​-Lipschitz in θ\thetaθ;
  4. the deviation ∣ρ^n(θ)−ρ(θ)∣|\widehat\rho_n(\theta)-\rho(\theta)|∣ρ​n​(θ)−ρ(θ)∣ is 2LcLzθγ−Lzz\frac{2L_cL_{z\theta}}{\gamma-L_{zz}}γ−Lzz​2Lc​Lzθ​​-Lipschitz on Θ\ThetaΘ;
  5. a (γ−Lzz)t4LcLzθ\frac{(\gamma-L_{zz})t}{4L_cL_{z\theta}}4Lc​Lzθ​(γ−Lzz​)t​-cover transfers a bound t/2t/2t/2 at its centres to a bound ttt on the supremum;
  6. 0≤c(Tγ(θ;z),z)≤K0\le c(T_\gamma(\theta;z),z)\le K0≤c(Tγ​(θ;z),z)≤K;
  7. Hoeffding's inequality at a fixed θ\thetaθ: P(∣ρ^n(θ)−ρ(θ)∣≥t/2)≤2e−nt2/(8K2)\mathbb P(|\widehat\rho_n(\theta)-\rho(\theta)|\ge t/2)\le 2e^{-nt^2/(8K^2)}P(∣ρ​n​(θ)−ρ(θ)∣≥t/2)≤2e−nt2/(8K2).

Significance

The tail bound gives a d/n\sqrt{d/n}d/n​-type generalization rate for the gap between the robustness certified on the sample and the robustness achieved on the population: with log⁡N(Θ,ϵ)≤dlog⁡(1+diam⁡(Θ)/ϵ)\log N(\Theta,\epsilon)\le d\log(1+\operatorname{diam}(\Theta)/\epsilon)logN(Θ,ϵ)≤dlog(1+diam(Θ)/ϵ) for bounded Θ\ThetaΘ, the deviation is of order K(dlog⁡(1/t)+log⁡(1/δ))/nK\sqrt{(d\log(1/t)+\log(1/\delta))/n}K(dlog(1/t)+log(1/δ))/n​. It also implies, as the paper notes, that the certified level ρ^n\widehat\rho_nρ​n​ stays positive for large nnn whenever the loss is not invariant to the data.

The paper states the result as Theorem 4, display (17), in "with probability 1−e−t1-e^{-t}1−e−t" form with the constant 4B4B4B. That form does not follow from the proved tail bound as printed: inverting the tail bound gives a deviation 42 B(t+log⁡2N)/n4\sqrt2\,B\sqrt{(t+\log 2N)/n}42​B(t+log2N)/n​ with a covering radius that depends on the deviation rather than on ttt, whereas (17) uses ttt in both places and drops 2\sqrt22​ and log⁡2\log 2log2. The mission therefore poses what the proof establishes, the tail bound above, and does not claim (17). None of this paper's results has a machine-checked proof; Hoeffding's inequality and covering numbers are in Mathlib, the argmax stability and the cover argument are not.

Difficulty

Concentration at a single fixed θ\thetaθ is Hoeffding's inequality and carries no information about the trained model, whose parameter depends on the sample. The supremum over an arbitrary, possibly uncountable Θ\ThetaΘ is the content. A union bound needs a finite family, and transferring control from a finite family to all of Θ\ThetaΘ needs the deviation to be Lipschitz in θ\thetaθ. The deviation is built from the transportation map, which is an argmax and has no closed form; its regularity in θ\thetaθ comes only from strong concavity, which holds only for γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​. In case (ii) the cost ccc itself has no Lipschitz assumption, and the Lipschitz property of c(Tγ(θ;z),z)c(T_\gamma(\theta;z),z)c(Tγ​(θ;z),z) has to be extracted from the optimality of TγT_\gammaTγ​ at two different parameters. Finally, the supremum event is not obviously measurable.

Formalization scope

Spaces are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); the paper's general norm is specialised to ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​, in Assumptions A and B, in cases (i) and (ii), and in the covering number. The cost is real valued and constrained on Z×ZZ\times ZZ×Z only; the loss is typed on Rd×Rm\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^mRd×Rm, but Assumption B and the argmax property of the transportation map are required only for θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ and z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z, matching the paper's ℓ:Θ×Z→R\ell:\Theta\times Z\to\mathbb Rℓ:Θ×Z→R. The transportation map is a function together with its argmax property. Samples are the coordinates of the product measure P0⊗nP_0^{\otimes n}P0⊗n​; P\mathbb PP of the supremum event is its outer measure, so no measurability of the event is assumed. The supremum is a real supremum of quantities bounded by 2K2K2K. The covering number is Mathlib's Metric.coveringNumber (closed balls, centres in Θ\ThetaΘ, values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}). The definition on p. 9 does not say where the centres lie; the proof applies Hoeffding's inequality "for any fixed θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ" at the centres, and the loss is only defined on Θ\ThetaΘ, so the centres are taken in Θ\ThetaΘ.

Hypotheses made explicit that the page leaves implicit:

  • γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​ (p. 43, "our strong concavity assumption"), so [γ−Lzz]+=γ−Lzz[\gamma-L_{zz}]_+=\gamma-L_{zz}[γ−Lzz​]+​=γ−Lzz​;
  • Lc>0L_c>0Lc​>0 and Lzθ>0L_{z\theta}>0Lzθ​>0, since the covering radius divides by 4LcLzθ4L_cL_{z\theta}4Lc​Lzθ​;
  • ZZZ convex (needed for the transportation map to be stable);
  • z↦c(Tγ(θ;z),z)z\mapsto c(T_\gamma(\theta;z),z)z↦c(Tγ​(θ;z),z) is P0P_0P0​-measurable for every θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ (the standing convention).

Case (ii) is assumed for θ∈Θ\theta\in\Thetaθ∈Θ only, as printed in Theorem 4.

A bound for one fixed θ\thetaθ, a supremum taken outside the probability, a covering radius not tied to ttt, or a covering number of a set other than Θ\ThetaΘ would be a different and much weaker statement; the goal has the supremum over Θ\ThetaΘ inside the event and the radius (γ−Lzz)t/(4LcLzθ)(\gamma-L_{zz})t/(4L_cL_{z\theta})(γ−Lzz​)t/(4Lc​Lzθ​).

A complete development needs the stability of maximizers of strongly concave functions under Lipschitz perturbation of the gradient, a finite-cover union bound for outer measures, and Hoeffding's inequality for bounded i.i.d. coordinates of a product measure. The first two are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for the goal.

Selected references

  • A. Sinha, H. Namkoong, R. Volpi, J. Duchi, Certifying Some Distributional Robustness with Principled Adversarial Training, ICLR 2018; arXiv:1710.10571v5, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10571v5
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58 (1963), 13–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
  • A. W. van der Vaart, J. A. Wellner, Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, Springer, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2545-2
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Control TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Input-to-State Stability of Nonlinear Impulsive Systems 2: An Exponential ISS-Lyapunov Function Makes an Impulsive System Uniformly ISS under the Generalized Average Dwell-Time ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

An impulsive system evolves continuously most of the time and changes state instantaneously at specified impulse times. Reset controllers, sampled interventions, and hybrid models have this shape. A stability estimate for the continuous dynamics alone can fail after many jumps: a jump may enlarge the state, and even a contracting jump can be too sparse to offset an expanding flow. Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko study how a condition on the timing of impulses combines the two effects to yield input-to-state stability (ISS) for nonlinear systems on Banach spaces. Their Theorem 5 treats a generalized average dwell-time condition and asks for one stability estimate shared by every admissible impulse schedule Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, §3.1, Theorem 5.

The source is the 2012 arXiv v1 preprint, which was subsequently published in SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization in 2013. This mission uses the preprint's page and equation numbers throughout. The goal is posed with a documented correction to the jump hypothesis because the theorem as printed is false under its own Definition 4; the correction is the max-form condition displayed in Proposition 3.2 of the same paper.

Setting

The state xxx lies in a real Banach space XXX, and the input value ξ\xiξ lies in another real Banach space UUU. The continuous transition map ϕc(t,x,u)\phi_c(t,x,u)ϕc​(t,x,u) gives the state after flowing for t≥0t\ge0t≥0 from xxx under an input function uuu. A jump map J(x,ξ)J(x,\xi)J(x,ξ) gives the new state when an impulse occurs. An impulse schedule T=(t1,t2,…)T=(t_1,t_2,\ldots)T=(t1​,t2​,…) is strictly increasing and has no finite accumulation point. Between impulses the trajectory follows ϕc\phi_cϕc​; at tit_iti​ it takes the value J(x(ti−),u(ti−))J(x(t_i^-),u(t_i^-))J(x(ti−​),u(ti−​)). Inputs are bounded and piecewise right-continuous. This is the transition-map view used by the source when it defines the Lie derivative; it does not require an explicit generator of a C0C_0C0​ semigroup in the mission interface Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, pp. 3–5.

A comparison function in K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ is continuous, strictly increasing, zero at zero, and unbounded. A function in L\mathcal LL is continuous, strictly decreasing, and tends to zero at infinite time. A function in KL\mathcal{KL}KL is of class K\mathcal KK in its first argument and of class L\mathcal LL in its second argument for every positive first argument. The nonnegative Lyapunov function VVV measures the state through two functions ψ1,ψ2∈K∞\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal K_\inftyψ1​,ψ2​∈K∞​:

ψ1(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2(∥x∥).\psi_1(\|x\|)\le V(x)\le\psi_2(\|x\|).ψ1​(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2​(∥x∥).

The continuous rate c∈Rc\in\mathbb Rc∈R and jump rate d∈Rd\in\mathbb Rd∈R enter through V˙u(x)≤−cV(x)\dot V_u(x)\le-cV(x)V˙u​(x)≤−cV(x) whenever V(x)≥γ(∥u(0)∥)V(x)\ge\gamma(\|u(0)\|)V(x)≥γ(∥u(0)∥), and through the max-form jump bound V(J(x,ξ))≤max⁡{e−dV(x),γ(∥ξ∥)}V(J(x,\xi))\le\max\{e^{-d}V(x),\gamma(\|\xi\|)\}V(J(x,ξ))≤max{e−dV(x),γ(∥ξ∥)} for every state and input value. The Lie derivative V˙u\dot V_uV˙u​ is an upper-right Dini derivative, so it can exist as an extended real even where an ordinary derivative does not Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, (3.3)–(3.6), Proposition 3.2.

For a schedule TTT, let N(t,s)N(t,s)N(t,s) count impulses in (s,t](s,t](s,t]. Given a positive function hhh dominated by some g∈Lg\in\mathcal Lg∈L, the generalized average dwell-time class S[h]S[h]S[h] consists of schedules satisfying

−dN(t,s)−c(t−s)≤log⁡h(t−s)(t≥s≥0).-dN(t,s)-c(t-s)\le\log h(t-s)\qquad(t\ge s\ge0).−dN(t,s)−c(t−s)≤logh(t−s)(t≥s≥0).

This condition permits the schedule to reflect the actual rates ccc and ddd, including cases where one mode is destabilizing Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, (3.29).

Formalization targets

Corrected Theorem 5

The goal asserts uniform ISS over S[h]S[h]S[h]. One pair β∈KL\beta\in\mathcal{KL}β∈KL and γ′∈K∞\gamma'\in\mathcal K_\inftyγ′∈K∞​ must work for all schedules T∈S[h]T\in S[h]T∈S[h], all initial states, and all admissible inputs bounded by MMM:

∥x(t)∥≤β(∥x0∥,t)+γ′(M)(t≥0).\|x(t)\|\le\beta(\|x_0\|,t)+\gamma'(M)\qquad(t\ge0).∥x(t)∥≤β(∥x0​∥,t)+γ′(M)(t≥0).

The theorem assumes d≠0d\ne0d=0, as printed. The draft goal uses Proposition 3.2's max-form jump bound. Its four milestones retain the source's estimates on an impulse-free flow piece, on an above-threshold excursion, before the first threshold visit, and after such a visit. The source displays are quoted in the milestone list with the preprint's page and equation numbers Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, pp. 11–13.

Significance

The result gives a common quantitative stability claim for a family of impulse schedules, rather than a separate estimate chosen after seeing each schedule. The common comparison functions matter when a controller or system class permits many possible reset times. The source's generalized condition also records both continuous and jump rates directly, so it covers more than a fixed minimum separation between impulses Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, §3.1–3.2.

The theorem and its four supporting estimates are currently draft statements, without machine-checked proofs. Completing the mission would formalize the known corrected argument and produce reusable definitions for piecewise inputs, impulse counts, right-continuous trajectories, and upper Dini Lyapunov conditions. Existing published platform definitions supply the comparison classes K\mathcal KK, K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​, and positive-definite functions, and the extended-real upper-right Dini derivative. The mission adds the dynamics and dwell-time layer needed to state this paper's result.

Difficulty

An interval with no impulse supports an exponential flow estimate only while the Lyapunov value stays above the input threshold. A jump can change both the state and which side of that threshold the trajectory occupies. The printed split into V≥γ(M)V\ge\gamma(M)V≥γ(M) and V<γ(M)V<\gamma(M)V<γ(M) has a boundary case: a jump can land exactly at V=γ(M)V=\gamma(M)V=γ(M) without satisfying the multiplicative part of the max-form jump estimate. The excursion milestone therefore uses a strict above-threshold condition after its starting time, and the threshold-visit milestone covers the boundary. Uniformity adds another requirement: the final comparison functions must be chosen before the impulse schedule Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko, proof of Theorem 5, pp. 11–13.

Formalization scope

Lean represents time by real numbers and nonnegative comparison values by R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​. The state and input spaces are real Banach spaces. The system is encoded by (ϕc,J)(\phi_c,J)(ϕc​,J) with identity, shifted-cocycle, flow-continuity, and zero-equilibrium properties; its solutions are the trajectories assembled from those maps. Initial time is fixed at 000, and the first impulse must occur strictly afterward. This removes an undefined left input limit at the initial instant. The input size is stated by a uniform bound MMM on t≥0t\ge0t≥0, equivalent to the source's supremum norm for monotone gains. The upper-right Dini derivative lives in the extended reals, and N(t,s)N(t,s)N(t,s) counts the left-open, right-closed interval (s,t](s,t](s,t].

The max-form jump hypothesis is a necessary correction: under the printed implication-form clause, take x˙=−x\dot x=-xx˙=−x, V(x)=∣x∣V(x)=|x|V(x)=∣x∣, and a jump that sends x=0x=0x=0 to 111 under any small positive input while satisfying the clause outside the threshold region. Every schedule can satisfy (3.29), yet ISS fails as the input tends to zero. The nontrivial scalar system x˙=−x\dot x=-xx˙=−x with jump x↦x/2x\mapsto x/2x↦x/2 satisfies the chosen system axioms in a sorry-free sanity file. The goal's existential β,γ′\beta,\gamma'β,γ′ precede the quantifier over schedules; the input bound is not an unbounded real supremum, and the derivative is not a junk-valued real limit.

Reusable contributions include analysis of the extended-real Dini derivative along a cocycle, finite impulse counting, and comparison lemmas for the four source estimates. The source's local Theorem 6 and the relations among dwell-time classes are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • S. Dashkovskiy and A. Mironchenko, Input-to-State Stability of Nonlinear Impulsive Systems, arXiv:1212.5481v1, 2012; SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 51(3), 2013. Preprint; DOI.
  • S. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, and F. R. Wirth, Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions, arXiv:0901.1842v2, 2009. Preprint.
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Certifying Some Distributional Robustness with Principled Adversarial Training 1: SGD on the Wasserstein Penalty Surrogate Finds an Approximate Stationary Point at Rate 4σ√(L_φΔ_F/T)Research Paper

Motivation

Neural networks trained by empirical risk minimization are sensitive to small, deliberately chosen perturbations of their inputs ("adversarial examples"). A standard defence is adversarial training: at each step, perturb the training example to increase the loss, then take a gradient step at the perturbed point. Sinha, Namkoong, Volpi and Duchi (arXiv:1710.10571, ICLR 2018) recast adversarial training as distributionally robust optimization over a Wasserstein ball around the data distribution, and replaced the hard ball constraint by a Lagrangian penalty. The resulting procedure perturbs each example by solving a penalized inner maximization, and the paper shows that, when the penalty is large enough relative to the smoothness of the loss, this inner problem is strongly concave and therefore tractable.

This mission formalizes the paper's computational guarantee, Theorem 2: stochastic gradient descent on the penalized robust objective, with an inexact adversary, reaches an approximate stationary point at the rate of smooth nonconvex stochastic optimization. The analysis follows Ghadimi and Lan's argument for nonconvex SGD (arXiv:1309.5549), adapted to a gradient oracle that is biased by the inexact inner maximization.

Setting

Parameters θ\thetaθ live in Θ=Rd\Theta=\mathbb R^dΘ=Rd and data in a set Z⊆RmZ\subseteq\mathbb R^mZ⊆Rm; both spaces carry the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥2\|\cdot\|_2∥⋅∥2​. Data are drawn from a probability distribution P0P_0P0​ on ZZZ.

A transportation cost c:Z×Z→[0,∞)c:Z\times Z\to[0,\infty)c:Z×Z→[0,∞) measures how expensive it is to move a data point z0z_0z0​ to zzz. Assumption A: ccc is continuous, c(z,z)=0c(z,z)=0c(z,z)=0, and for each z0∈Zz_0\in Zz0​∈Z the map z↦c(z,z0)z\mapsto c(z,z_0)z↦c(z,z0​) is 111-strongly convex. The canonical example is c(z,z0)=12∥z−z0∥22c(z,z_0)=\tfrac12\|z-z_0\|_2^2c(z,z0​)=21​∥z−z0​∥22​.

A loss ℓ(θ;z)\ell(\theta;z)ℓ(θ;z) has partial gradients ∇θℓ\nabla_\theta\ell∇θ​ℓ and ∇zℓ\nabla_z\ell∇z​ℓ. Assumption B: these gradients are Lipschitz in each argument,

∥∇θℓ(θ;z)−∇θℓ(θ′;z)∥≤Lθθ∥θ−θ′∥,∥∇zℓ(θ;z)−∇zℓ(θ;z′)∥≤Lzz∥z−z′∥,\|\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta;z)-\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta';z)\|\le L_{\theta\theta}\|\theta-\theta'\|,\quad \|\nabla_z\ell(\theta;z)-\nabla_z\ell(\theta;z')\|\le L_{zz}\|z-z'\|,∥∇θ​ℓ(θ;z)−∇θ​ℓ(θ′;z)∥≤Lθθ​∥θ−θ′∥,∥∇z​ℓ(θ;z)−∇z​ℓ(θ;z′)∥≤Lzz​∥z−z′∥, ∥∇θℓ(θ;z)−∇θℓ(θ;z′)∥≤Lθz∥z−z′∥,∥∇zℓ(θ;z)−∇zℓ(θ′;z)∥≤Lzθ∥θ−θ′∥.\|\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta;z)-\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta;z')\|\le L_{\theta z}\|z-z'\|,\quad \|\nabla_z\ell(\theta;z)-\nabla_z\ell(\theta';z)\|\le L_{z\theta}\|\theta-\theta'\|.∥∇θ​ℓ(θ;z)−∇θ​ℓ(θ;z′)∥≤Lθz​∥z−z′∥,∥∇z​ℓ(θ;z)−∇z​ℓ(θ′;z)∥≤Lzθ​∥θ−θ′∥.

For a penalty γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the robust surrogate and the robust objective are

φγ(θ;z0)=sup⁡z∈Z{ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0)},F(θ)=EP0[φγ(θ;Z)].\varphi_\gamma(\theta;z_0)=\sup_{z\in Z}\{\ell(\theta;z)-\gamma c(z,z_0)\},\qquad F(\theta)=\mathbb E_{P_0}[\varphi_\gamma(\theta;Z)].φγ​(θ;z0​)=z∈Zsup​{ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0​)},F(θ)=EP0​​[φγ​(θ;Z)].

By Wasserstein duality, F(θ)F(\theta)F(θ) equals the worst-case expected loss over all distributions PPP, penalized by γ\gammaγ times the transport distance from PPP to P0P_0P0​.

Algorithm 1 (with Θ=Rd\Theta=\mathbb R^dΘ=Rd and constant stepsize α\alphaα): from θ0\theta^0θ0, for t=0,…,T−1t=0,\dots,T-1t=0,…,T−1, draw zt∼P0z^t\sim P_0zt∼P0​ independently, find an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate maximizer z^t∈Z\hat z^t\in Zz^t∈Z, meaning ℓ(θt;z^t)−γc(z^t,zt)≥φγ(θt;zt)−ϵ\ell(\theta^t;\hat z^t)-\gamma c(\hat z^t,z^t)\ge\varphi_\gamma(\theta^t;z^t)-\epsilonℓ(θt;z^t)−γc(z^t,zt)≥φγ​(θt;zt)−ϵ, and set θt+1=θt−α∇θℓ(θt;z^t)\theta^{t+1}=\theta^t-\alpha\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta^t;\hat z^t)θt+1=θt−α∇θ​ℓ(θt;z^t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 6)

Let γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​, Lφ=Lθθ+LθzLzθ/(γ−Lzz)L_\varphi=L_{\theta\theta}+L_{\theta z}L_{z\theta}/(\gamma-L_{zz})Lφ​=Lθθ​+Lθz​Lzθ​/(γ−Lzz​), ΔF≥F(θ0)−inf⁡θF(θ)\Delta_F\ge F(\theta^0)-\inf_\theta F(\theta)ΔF​≥F(θ0)−infθ​F(θ), and assume E∥∇F(θ)−∇θφγ(θ;Z)∥22≤σ2\mathbb E\|\nabla F(\theta)-\nabla_\theta\varphi_\gamma(\theta;Z)\|_2^2\le\sigma^2E∥∇F(θ)−∇θ​φγ​(θ;Z)∥22​≤σ2 for all θ\thetaθ. With α=ΔF/(LφTσ2)\alpha=\sqrt{\Delta_F/(L_\varphi T\sigma^2)}α=ΔF​/(Lφ​Tσ2)​ and T≥LφΔF/σ2T\ge L_\varphi\Delta_F/\sigma^2T≥Lφ​ΔF​/σ2,

1T∑t=0T−1E[∥∇F(θt)∥22]−4Lθz2γ−Lzz ϵ≤4σLφΔFT.\frac1T\sum_{t=0}^{T-1}\mathbb E\big[\|\nabla F(\theta^t)\|_2^2\big]-\frac{4L_{\theta z}^2}{\gamma-L_{zz}}\,\epsilon\le4\sigma\sqrt{\frac{L_\varphi\Delta_F}{T}}.T1​t=0∑T−1​E[∥∇F(θt)∥22​]−γ−Lzz​4Lθz2​​ϵ≤4σTLφ​ΔF​​​.

Milestones

  1. (4), p. 4: for γ≥Lzz\gamma\ge L_{zz}γ≥Lzz​, z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0)z\mapsto\ell(\theta;z)-\gamma c(z,z_0)z↦ℓ(θ;z)−γc(z,z0​) is (γ−Lzz)(\gamma-L_{zz})(γ−Lzz​)-strongly concave.
  2. Lemma 1, p. 5: the supremum fˉ(θ)=sup⁡z∈Zf(θ,z)\bar f(\theta)=\sup_{z\in Z}f(\theta,z)fˉ​(θ)=supz∈Z​f(θ,z) of a λ\lambdaλ-strongly concave family satisfying Assumption B is differentiable, with ∇fˉ(θ)=∇θf(θ,z⋆(θ))\nabla\bar f(\theta)=\nabla_\theta f(\theta,z_\star(\theta))∇fˉ​(θ)=∇θ​f(θ,z⋆​(θ)), a (Lzθ/λ)(L_{z\theta}/\lambda)(Lzθ​/λ)-Lipschitz maximizer and a (Lθθ+LθzLzθ/λ)(L_{\theta\theta}+L_{\theta z}L_{z\theta}/\lambda)(Lθθ​+Lθz​Lzθ​/λ)-Lipschitz gradient.
  3. §2.1, p. 6: φγ(⋅;z0)\varphi_\gamma(\cdot;z_0)φγ​(⋅;z0​) has LφL_\varphiLφ​-Lipschitz gradient ∇θφγ(θ;z0)=∇θℓ(θ;z⋆(z0,θ))\nabla_\theta\varphi_\gamma(\theta;z_0)=\nabla_\theta\ell(\theta;z_\star(z_0,\theta))∇θ​φγ​(θ;z0​)=∇θ​ℓ(θ;z⋆​(z0​,θ)).
  4. (31) and (32), p. 40: the descent inequality for an LφL_\varphiLφ​-smooth objective, and its form with the bias δ=g−∇θφγ\delta=g-\nabla_\theta\varphi_\gammaδ=g−∇θ​φγ​ separated, for α≤1/Lφ\alpha\le1/L_\varphiα≤1/Lφ​.
  5. The bias bound, p. 41: ∥δ∥22≤2Lθz2ϵ/(γ−Lzz)\|\delta\|_2^2\le 2L_{\theta z}^2\epsilon/(\gamma-L_{zz})∥δ∥22​≤2Lθz2​ϵ/(γ−Lzz​).
  6. The one-step bound in conditional expectation and the averaged bound, p. 41:
1T∑t<TE∥∇F(θt)∥22≤2ϵ^+2ΔFαT+2Lφασ2,ϵ^=2Lθz2γ−Lzzϵ,\frac1T\sum_{t<T}\mathbb E\|\nabla F(\theta^t)\|_2^2\le2\hat\epsilon+\frac{2\Delta_F}{\alpha T}+2L_\varphi\alpha\sigma^2,\qquad\hat\epsilon=\frac{2L_{\theta z}^2}{\gamma-L_{zz}}\epsilon,T1​t<T∑​E∥∇F(θt)∥22​≤2ϵ^+αT2ΔF​​+2Lφ​ασ2,ϵ^=γ−Lzz​2Lθz2​​ϵ,

for every constant stepsize 0<α≤1/Lφ0<\alpha\le1/L_\varphi0<α≤1/Lφ​. The goal is this bound at the balancing stepsize.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 certifies that the robust training procedure is no harder, in iteration count, than ordinary nonconvex SGD: the stationarity measure decays as T−1/2T^{-1/2}T−1/2, and the inexactness of the adversary enters only as an additive term proportional to ϵ\epsilonϵ, independent of TTT. This is what licenses running a few steps of gradient ascent for the inner problem rather than solving it exactly. It also explains the role of the penalty: the guarantee requires γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​, so smoothness of the loss in the data (smooth activations rather than ReLUs) is what makes the robust problem tractable.

Formalizing it. The result and its proof are published; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. A formal proof would add a verified Danskin-type theorem for strongly concave suprema with explicit Lipschitz constants (Lemma 1), which is reusable well beyond this paper, and a verified nonconvex SGD analysis with a biased oracle, including the measure-theoretic bookkeeping (independence of the fresh sample from the current iterate, differentiation under the integral) that the paper's proof compresses into one line.

Difficulty

The deterministic inequalities (31), (32) and the bias bound are short. The weight sits elsewhere. First, Lemma 1 requires differentiability of a supremum over a possibly unbounded set, with the maximizer depending on θ\thetaθ; the paper invokes a Danskin-type theorem that is not in Mathlib, and the cost ccc is not assumed differentiable, so the first-order optimality conditions for the inner problem must be derived from strong convexity alone. Second, the expectation step uses E[∇θφγ(θt;zt)∣θt]=∇F(θt)\mathbb E[\nabla_\theta\varphi_\gamma(\theta^t;z^t)\mid\theta^t]=\nabla F(\theta^t)E[∇θ​φγ​(θt;zt)∣θt]=∇F(θt), which needs both differentiation under the integral sign for FFF and the independence of ztz^tzt from θt\theta^tθt along the run. Third, finiteness of every expectation along the run is not assumed and must be propagated from step to step.

Formalization scope

Lean representation: Θ\ThetaΘ and Rm\mathbb R^mRm are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m); ZZZ is a set in the latter. The loss is a function on all of Rd×Rm\mathbb R^d\times\mathbb R^mRd×Rm; its partial gradients are required at points of ZZZ and the Lipschitz conditions on ZZZ only. Strong convexity is Mathlib's StrongConvexOn, whose modulus convention matches the paper. Suprema are sSup over the image of ZZZ. FFF is a Bochner integral, and φγ(θ;⋅)\varphi_\gamma(\theta;\cdot)φγ​(θ;⋅) is assumed P0P_0P0​-integrable for every θ\thetaθ. The run is driven by (z0,…,zT−1)∼P0⊗T(z^0,\dots,z^{T-1})\sim P_0^{\otimes T}(z0,…,zT−1)∼P0⊗T​ (Measure.pi). The expectations in the conclusion and in the variance hypothesis are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the ϵ\epsilonϵ-term of Theorem 2 is moved to the right-hand side.

Hypotheses made explicit that the paper leaves implicit: γ>Lzz\gamma>L_{zz}γ>Lzz​ (the paper writes γ≥Lzz\gamma\ge L_{zz}γ≥Lzz​ but divides by γ−Lzz\gamma-L_{zz}γ−Lzz​); ZZZ nonempty, convex and closed; Lipschitz constants nonnegative; σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, ΔF>0\Delta_F>0ΔF​>0, T≥1T\ge1T≥1, ϵ≥0\epsilon\ge0ϵ≥0; FFF bounded below (so inf⁡θF\inf_\theta Finfθ​F is a real number); integrability of φγ(θ;⋅)\varphi_\gamma(\theta;\cdot)φγ​(θ;⋅); P0(Z)=1P_0(Z)=1P0​(Z)=1; joint measurability of the oracle (θ,z0)↦z^(θ,z0)(\theta,z_0)\mapsto\hat z(\theta,z_0)(θ,z0​)↦z^(θ,z0​); and, in (32) and the later milestones, 0<α≤1/Lφ0<\alpha\le1/L_\varphi0<α≤1/Lφ​, which the paper assumes "in the rest of the proof". Lemma 1 is specialized to the Euclidean norm, the case Theorem 2 uses. The cost ccc is not assumed differentiable.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the run uses an oracle tied to φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ by the ϵ\epsilonϵ-gap and to ZZZ by membership, φγ\varphi_\gammaφγ​ is the supremum of the penalized loss over ZZZ, FFF is its P0P_0P0​-integral, and the hypotheses are satisfiable (for instance ℓ(θ;z)=12∥θ∥2\ell(\theta;z)=\tfrac12\|\theta\|^2ℓ(θ;z)=21​∥θ∥2, c(z,z0)=12∥z−z0∥2c(z,z_0)=\tfrac12\|z-z_0\|^2c(z,z0​)=21​∥z−z0​∥2, Z=RmZ=\mathbb R^mZ=Rm, P0P_0P0​ a point mass, ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0). Expectations as lower integrals prevent a non-integrable ∥∇F(θt)∥2\|\nabla F(\theta^t)\|^2∥∇F(θt)∥2 from being read as 000.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: the descent lemma for functions with Lipschitz gradient; first-order characterizations of strong concavity on a convex set; a Danskin/envelope theorem for strongly concave suprema; differentiation under the integral for FFF; and conditional-expectation bookkeeping for Markov-type recursions driven by i.i.d. samples on a finite product space. The first three are reusable in any minimax or bilevel analysis. Contributions to any milestone, or to these supporting facts as separate lemmas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Sinha, H. Namkoong, R. Volpi, J. Duchi, Certifying Some Distributional Robustness with Principled Adversarial Training, ICLR 2018; arXiv:1710.10571v5, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10571
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 23(4), 2013. https://doi.org/10.1137/120880811
  • J. F. Bonnans, A. Shapiro, Perturbation Analysis of Optimization Problems, Springer, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1394-9
  • R. Gao, A. Kleywegt, Distributionally Robust Stochastic Optimization with Wasserstein Distance, Mathematics of Operations Research 48(2), 2023; arXiv:1604.02199. https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.02199
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Control TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Input-to-State Stability of Nonlinear Impulsive Systems 1: An ISS-Lyapunov Function Makes an Impulsive System ISS for Every Impulse Sequence Satisfying the Nonlinear Fixed Dwell-Time ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

Impulsive systems evolve continuously most of the time and change their state abruptly at isolated instants. They model sampled-data and networked control loops, where a controller acts at transmission times; population and epidemic models with periodic harvesting or vaccination; and mechanical systems with impacts. Their inputs are disturbances, measurement errors or exogenous signals, and the natural robustness notion is input-to-state stability (ISS): the state is bounded by a decaying function of the initial state plus a gain of the input size.

For impulsive systems ISS depends on when the jumps occur. A flow that contracts and jumps that expand (or the reverse) can be stable or unstable depending on how dense the impulse times are. Dwell-time conditions, which restrict the impulse-time sequences, are the standard tool.

S. Dashkovskiy and A. Mironchenko, Input-to-state stability of nonlinear impulsive systems (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 2013), establish Lyapunov-type sufficient conditions for ISS of nonlinear impulsive systems on Banach spaces. This mission formalizes the first of them, Theorem 1: a nonlinear fixed dwell-time condition, attributed in the paper to Samoilenko and Perestyuk’s monograph on impulsive differential equations, together with an ISS-Lyapunov function, gives ISS for every impulse sequence whose impulses are at least θ\thetaθ apart.

Timeline. Hespanha, Liberzon and Teel (Automatica 2008) proved ISS of finite-dimensional impulsive systems under average dwell-time conditions with exponential ISS-Lyapunov functions. Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko (arXiv 2012, SICON 2013) extended Lyapunov criteria to infinite-dimensional systems and to non-exponential Lyapunov functions (Theorem 1), and to a generalized average dwell-time condition (Theorem 5, the second mission of this series).

Setting

Let XXX (states) and UUU (input values) be Banach spaces. The system is

x˙(t)=Ax(t)+f(x(t),u(t)),t∉T,x(t)=g(x−(t),u−(t)),t∈T,\dot x(t)=Ax(t)+f(x(t),u(t)),\quad t\notin T,\qquad x(t)=g(x^-(t),u^-(t)),\quad t\in T,x˙(t)=Ax(t)+f(x(t),u(t)),t∈/T,x(t)=g(x−(t),u−(t)),t∈T,

where T={t1<t2<⋯ }T=\{t_1<t_2<\cdots\}T={t1​<t2​<⋯} is the sequence of impulse times (no finite accumulation point), x−(t)x^-(t)x−(t) and u−(t)u^-(t)u−(t) are left limits, and inputs uuu belong to Uc=PC([t0,∞),U)U_c=PC([t_0,\infty),U)Uc​=PC([t0​,∞),U), the piecewise right-continuous bounded functions with ∥u∥Uc=sup⁡t≥t0∥u(t)∥\|u\|_{U_c}=\sup_{t\ge t_0}\|u(t)\|∥u∥Uc​​=supt≥t0​​∥u(t)∥. Solutions are assumed to exist and be unique, and f(0,0)=g(0,0)=0f(0,0)=g(0,0)=0f(0,0)=g(0,0)=0.

The transition map ϕc(t,0,x,u)\phi_c(t,0,x,u)ϕc​(t,0,x,u) of the continuous part is the state at time ttt when the state at time 000 was xxx, the input uuu was applied and there were no impulses. The trajectory x(t)=ϕ(t,t0,x0,u)x(t)=\phi(t,t_0,x_0,u)x(t)=ϕ(t,t0​,x0​,u) follows ϕc\phi_cϕc​ between impulses and jumps by ggg at each tkt_ktk​.

Comparison functions: P\mathcal PP (continuous, zero exactly at 000), K\mathcal KK (in P\mathcal PP and strictly increasing), K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ (unbounded K\mathcal KK), L\mathcal LL (continuous, strictly decreasing to 000), and KL\mathcal{KL}KL. The system is ISS for TTT if, for some β∈KL\beta\in\mathcal{KL}β∈KL and γ∈K∞\gamma\in\mathcal K_\inftyγ∈K∞​,

∥x(t)∥≤β(∥x0∥,t−t0)+γ(∥u∥Uc)for all x0, u, t≥t0.\|x(t)\|\le\beta(\|x_0\|,t-t_0)+\gamma(\|u\|_{U_c})\qquad\text{for all }x_0,\ u,\ t\ge t_0 .∥x(t)∥≤β(∥x0​∥,t−t0​)+γ(∥u∥Uc​​)for all x0​, u, t≥t0​.

The Lie derivative of V:X→R+V:X\to\mathbb R_+V:X→R+​ is the upper right Dini derivative V˙u(x)=lim sup⁡t→+01t(V(ϕc(t,0,x,u))−V(x))\dot V_u(x)=\limsup_{t\to+0}\frac1t\big(V(\phi_c(t,0,x,u))-V(x)\big)V˙u​(x)=limsupt→+0​t1​(V(ϕc​(t,0,x,u))−V(x)). An ISS-Lyapunov function in max form (Proposition 3.1 of the paper) is a continuous VVV with ψ1(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2(∥x∥)\psi_1(\|x\|)\le V(x)\le\psi_2(\|x\|)ψ1​(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2​(∥x∥), ψ1,ψ2∈K∞\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal K_\inftyψ1​,ψ2​∈K∞​, and γ∈K∞\gamma\in\mathcal K_\inftyγ∈K∞​, α∈P\alpha\in\mathcal Pα∈P and a flow rate φ\varphiφ such that

V(x)≥γ(∥u(0)∥) ⇒ V˙u(x)≤−φ(V(x)),V(g(x,ξ))≤max⁡{α(V(x)),γ(∥ξ∥)}.V(x)\ge\gamma(\|u(0)\|)\ \Rightarrow\ \dot V_u(x)\le-\varphi(V(x)),\qquad V(g(x,\xi))\le\max\{\alpha(V(x)),\gamma(\|\xi\|)\}.V(x)≥γ(∥u(0)∥) ⇒ V˙u​(x)≤−φ(V(x)),V(g(x,ξ))≤max{α(V(x)),γ(∥ξ∥)}.

The class SθS_\thetaSθ​ consists of impulse sequences with ti+1−ti≥θt_{i+1}-t_i\ge\thetati+1​−ti​≥θ for all iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 6), corrected

Let VVV be an ISS-Lyapunov function in max form with φ∈P\varphi\in\mathcal Pφ∈P, and suppose that for some θ,δ>0\theta,\delta>0θ,δ>0

∫aα(a)dsφ(s)≤θ−δfor all a>0.(3.7)\int_a^{\alpha(a)}\frac{ds}{\varphi(s)}\le\theta-\delta\qquad\text{for all }a>0. \tag{3.7}∫aα(a)​φ(s)ds​≤θ−δfor all a>0.(3.7)

Then the system is ISS for every T∈SθT\in S_\thetaT∈Sθ​, with β\betaβ allowed to depend on TTT.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, pp. 7–9)

  1. (3.11): on a flow piece with y=V(x(⋅))>0y=V(x(\cdot))>0y=V(x(⋅))>0 and D+y≤−φ(y)D^+y\le-\varphi(y)D+y≤−φ(y), the function F(q)=∫rqds/φ(s)F(q)=\int_r^q ds/\varphi(s)F(q)=∫rq​ds/φ(s) satisfies F(y(t))−F(y(ti))≤−(t−ti)F(y(t))-F(y(t_i))\le-(t-t_i)F(y(t))−F(y(ti​))≤−(t−ti​).
  2. (3.14): for u≡0u\equiv0u≡0, one dwell interval gives F(y(ti+1))−F(y(ti))≤−δF(y(t_{i+1}))-F(y(t_i))\le-\deltaF(y(ti+1​))−F(y(ti​))≤−δ.
  3. zr(ti)→0z_r(t_i)\to0zr​(ti​)→0 (p. 8): a positive sequence along which FFF drops by δ\deltaδ per step tends to 000.
  4. Zero-input decay (p. 8): for u≡0u\equiv0u≡0, V(x(t))≤β2(V(x0),t)V(x(t))\le\beta_2(V(x_0),t)V(x(t))≤β2​(V(x0​),t) with β2∈KL\beta_2\in\mathcal{KL}β2​∈KL.
  5. Invariance of I2I_2I2​ (p. 9): once V(x(t))≤γ(∥u∥)V(x(t))\le\gamma(\|u\|)V(x(t))≤γ(∥u∥), afterwards V(x(t))≤α~(∥u∥)V(x(t))\le\tilde\alpha(\|u\|)V(x(t))≤α~(∥u∥) with α~(r)=max⁡{max⁡0≤s≤γ(r)α(s),γ(r)}\tilde\alpha(r)=\max\{\max_{0\le s\le\gamma(r)}\alpha(s),\gamma(r)\}α~(r)=max{max0≤s≤γ(r)​α(s),γ(r)}.

Significance

The result. Condition (3.7) allows jumps that increase VVV (α(a)>a\alpha(a)>aα(a)>a), provided the flow has time θ\thetaθ to compensate, and it allows any decay rate φ∈P\varphi\in\mathcal Pφ∈P, not only exponential ones. The theorem therefore covers systems with polynomially or more slowly decaying Lyapunov functions, such as the paper's Example 1 (x˙=−x3+u\dot x=-x^3+ux˙=−x3+u with cubic jumps), for which exponential average dwell-time results do not apply. It is also the base of the paper's Remark 3: if jumps do not increase VVV, the system is ISS for every impulse sequence without finite accumulation points.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version exists. The printed statement is not correct as written (see Formalization scope), so a formal proof also certifies the repaired hypothesis set. The development produces reusable infrastructure: a trajectory semantics for impulsive systems with inputs, a Dini-derivative comparison lemma for D+y≤−φ(y)D^+y\le-\varphi(y)D+y≤−φ(y), and constructions of KL\mathcal{KL}KL bounds from sampled decay estimates.

Difficulty

The decay along the flow is not exponential, so the estimate is carried by the nonlinear time change FFF, and the comparison step (3.11) must be derived from an upper Dini derivative of a merely continuous function, not from a classical derivative. The KL\mathcal{KL}KL bound is built from estimates at the impulse times only; it must be continuous, strictly monotone in both arguments and uniform over all initial states with the same Lyapunov value, and FFF may be bounded below near 000, in which case the trajectory reaches 000 in finite time and F−1F^{-1}F−1 is undefined there. With inputs, the trajectory can leave the sublevel set {V≤γ(∥u∥)}\{V\le\gamma(\|u\|)\}{V≤γ(∥u∥)} only by a jump, and after such a jump the decay of VVV is guaranteed only at the following impulse times, not immediately.

Formalization scope

The system is modelled abstractly by the pair (ϕc,g)(\phi_c,g)(ϕc​,g): a structure with fields flow (ϕc\phi_cϕc​) and jump (ggg), subject to ϕc(0,0,x,u)=x\phi_c(0,0,x,u)=xϕc​(0,0,x,u)=x, the cocycle property under input shifts, continuity in time, and the equilibrium at 000. Mathlib has no C0C_0C0​-semigroups, and every statement of the paper uses AAA and fff only through ϕc\phi_cϕc​. The initial time is t0=0t_0=0t0​=0 (the paper's own reduction (2.2)), and the first impulse is strictly after t0t_0t0​. Impulse times are τ : ℕ → ℝ, 0-based (τ i is ti+1t_{i+1}ti+1​). Comparison functions are maps R≥0→R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​→R≥0​; P\mathcal PP, K\mathcal KK, K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ come from the published definition SmallGainISS.Lyapunov.Gains, and the Dini derivative from ProcessingNetworks.LyapunovCriteria.DiniDerivative, valued in extended reals. The ISS estimate uses any bound M≥∥u(t)∥M\ge\|u(t)\|M≥∥u(t)∥ in place of ∥u∥Uc\|u\|_{U_c}∥u∥Uc​​.

Corrected statement. The goal uses the max-form jump bound (3.6) of Proposition 3.1 for all x,ξx,\xix,ξ, which is what the proof uses, instead of Definition 4's implication form: as printed the theorem is false (x˙=−x\dot x=-xx˙=−x, g(x,ξ)=x/2g(x,\xi)=x/2g(x,ξ)=x/2 if ∣ξ∣≤∣x∣|\xi|\le|x|∣ξ∣≤∣x∣ and 111 otherwise, V=∣x∣V=|x|V=∣x∣, x0=0x_0=0x0​=0, u≡εu\equiv\varepsilonu≡ε reaches 111 at the first jump for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: β\betaβ and γ\gammaγ are existentially quantified before the initial state and the input, and after the impulse sequence only, as the theorem is non-uniform over SθS_\thetaSθ​ (Remark 2); the Lie derivative is an extended-real lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup, not a real-valued one or a classical derivative; the input norm is a bound, never a supremum; the integral in (3.7) is taken only over segments inside (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), where 1/φ1/\varphi1/φ is continuous; and a verification file shows that x˙=−x\dot x=-xx˙=−x, g=x/2g=x/2g=x/2, V=∣x∣V=|x|V=∣x∣ and ti=θit_i=\theta iti​=θi satisfy every hypothesis.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, a general Dini comparison lemma, and the construction of KL\mathcal{KL}KL functions from sampled bounds, which the paper only sketches.

Selected references

  • S. Dashkovskiy, A. Mironchenko, Input-to-state stability of nonlinear impulsive systems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 1962–1987, 2013; preprint arXiv:1212.5481v1, 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1212.5481
  • J. P. Hespanha, D. Liberzon, A. R. Teel, Lyapunov conditions for input-to-state stability of impulsive systems, Automatica 44(11), 2735–2744, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.automatica.2008.03.006
  • S. Dashkovskiy, A. Mironchenko, Input-to-state stability of infinite-dimensional control systems, Math. Control Signals Systems 25, 1–35, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00498-012-0090-2
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Control TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Input-to-State Stability of Nonlinear Impulsive Systems 3: Small-Gain Theorem: max_i σ_i⁻¹(V_i(x_i)) Is an ISS-Lyapunov Function for an Interconnection of Impulsive SystemsResearch Paper

Motivation

Large control systems are rarely analysed as a whole. A power grid, a logistics network or a chemical plant is a network of subsystems, each with its own model, coupled through their states. Input-to-state stability (ISS) is the standard notion of robustness for such systems: the state is bounded by a decaying function of the initial state plus a gain of the size of the input. Small-gain theorems give conditions under which ISS of the subsystems, together with a smallness condition on the gains with which the subsystems influence one another, yields ISS of the interconnection. In Lyapunov form they do more: they assemble an ISS-Lyapunov function of the whole network from those of its parts (Jiang, Mareels and Wang 1996; Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth 2010).

Many networks are also impulsive: their state evolves continuously most of the time and jumps at isolated instants (resets, switching, sampling, batch arrivals in logistics). Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko (arXiv:1212.5481v1, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 2013, DOI) develop a Lyapunov ISS theory for impulsive systems on Banach spaces. Their Theorem 8 is the small-gain theorem for interconnections of impulsive systems that jump at common times.

Timeline. Jiang, Mareels and Wang (1996) gave the Lyapunov small-gain theorem for two ordinary differential systems. Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth (2010) extended it to nnn subsystems, with the gain operator Γ\GammaΓ, the small-gain condition and the Ω\OmegaΩ-path through which V=max⁡iσi−1(Vi)V=\max_i\sigma_i^{-1}(V_i)V=maxi​σi−1​(Vi​) is built. Nešić and Teel (CDC 2008) treated hybrid systems, Dashkovskiy and Mironchenko (MCSS 2012) treated infinite-dimensional systems, and Theorem 8 combines both settings for impulsive systems.

Setting

An impulsive system has state space XXX and input values in UUU, both Banach spaces. It is described by two maps:

  • the transition map ϕc(t,0,x,u)\phi_c(t,0,x,u)ϕc​(t,0,x,u) of its continuous part, i.e. the state at time ttt when the system starts at xxx under the input uuu and no jumps occur;
  • the jump map g:X×U→Xg:X\times U\to Xg:X×U→X.

The paper derives ϕc\phi_cϕc​ from x˙=Ax+f(x,u)\dot x=Ax+f(x,u)x˙=Ax+f(x,u) with AAA the generator of a C0C_0C0​-semigroup, but every statement of this mission uses only ϕc\phi_cϕc​ and ggg. Inputs are piecewise right-continuous and bounded. For a function V:X→R+V:X\to\mathbb R_+V:X→R+​, the Lie derivative is the upper right Dini derivative

V˙u(x)=lim⁡t→+0‾ 1t(V(ϕc(t,0,x,u))−V(x)).\dot V_u(x)=\overline{\lim_{t\to+0}}\ \frac1t\big(V(\phi_c(t,0,x,u))-V(x)\big).V˙u​(x)=t→+0lim​​ t1​(V(ϕc​(t,0,x,u))−V(x)).

An interconnection consists of nnn subsystems with state spaces XiX_iXi​. It is one impulsive system on X=X1×⋯×XnX=X_1\times\dots\times X_nX=X1​×⋯×Xn​ with ∥x∥X=∑i∥xi∥\|x\|_X=\sum_i\|x_i\|∥x∥X​=∑i​∥xi​∥. Each subsystem has an ISS-Lyapunov function ViV_iVi​:

  • ψi1(∥xi∥)≤Vi(xi)≤ψi2(∥xi∥)\psi_{i1}(\|x_i\|)\le V_i(x_i)\le\psi_{i2}(\|x_i\|)ψi1​(∥xi​∥)≤Vi​(xi​)≤ψi2​(∥xi​∥);
  • along the flow, ViV_iVi​ decreases at rate φi(Vi)\varphi_i(V_i)φi​(Vi​) whenever Vi(xi)≥max⁡{max⁡jχij(Vj(xj)),χi(∥ξ∥)}V_i(x_i)\ge\max\{\max_j\chi_{ij}(V_j(x_j)),\chi_i(\|\xi\|)\}Vi​(xi​)≥max{maxj​χij​(Vj​(xj​)),χi​(∥ξ∥)};
  • at a jump, Vi(gi(x,ξ))≤max⁡{αi(Vi(xi)),max⁡jχij(Vj(xj)),χi(∥ξ∥)}V_i(g_i(x,\xi))\le\max\{\alpha_i(V_i(x_i)),\max_j\chi_{ij}(V_j(x_j)),\chi_i(\|\xi\|)\}Vi​(gi​(x,ξ))≤max{αi​(Vi​(xi​)),maxj​χij​(Vj​(xj​)),χi​(∥ξ∥)}.

The gains χij\chi_{ij}χij​ form the gain operator Γ(s)i=max⁡jχij(sj)\Gamma(s)_i=\max_j\chi_{ij}(s_j)Γ(s)i​=maxj​χij​(sj​) on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​. The small-gain condition is Γ(s)≱s\Gamma(s)\not\ge sΓ(s)≥s for s≠0s\ne0s=0. An Ω\OmegaΩ-path is a curve σ=(σ1,…,σn)\sigma=(\sigma_1,\dots,\sigma_n)σ=(σ1​,…,σn​) of K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ functions with Γ(σ(r))<σ(r)\Gamma(\sigma(r))<\sigma(r)Γ(σ(r))<σ(r) componentwise for r>0r>0r>0, whose inverses σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ are locally Lipschitz with derivative bounds on compacts.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 in the form of Proposition 3.1

With V(x)=max⁡iσi−1(Vi(xi))V(x)=\max_i\sigma_i^{-1}(V_i(x_i))V(x)=maxi​σi−1​(Vi​(xi​)) and χ(r)=max⁡iσi−1(χi(r))\chi(r)=\max_i\sigma_i^{-1}(\chi_i(r))χ(r)=maxi​σi−1​(χi​(r)):

ψ1(∥x∥X)≤V(x)≤ψ2(∥x∥X),V(x)≥χ(∥ξ∥)⇒V˙u(x)≤−φ(V(x)) (x≠0),\psi_1(\|x\|_X)\le V(x)\le\psi_2(\|x\|_X),\qquad V(x)\ge\chi(\|\xi\|)\Rightarrow\dot V_u(x)\le-\varphi(V(x))\ (x\ne0),ψ1​(∥x∥X​)≤V(x)≤ψ2​(∥x∥X​),V(x)≥χ(∥ξ∥)⇒V˙u​(x)≤−φ(V(x)) (x=0), V(g(x,ξ))≤max⁡{α(V(x)),χ(∥ξ∥)},V(g(x,\xi))\le\max\{\alpha(V(x)),\chi(\|\xi\|)\},V(g(x,ξ))≤max{α(V(x)),χ(∥ξ∥)},

for some ψ1,ψ2∈K∞\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal K_\inftyψ1​,ψ2​∈K∞​ and φ,α∈P\varphi,\alpha\in\mathcal Pφ,α∈P. The rates are existential, so no constant is fixed.

Milestones (proof order)

  1. The continuous part (4.12): the flow estimate above.
  2. α~=max⁡iσi−1∘αi∘σi\tilde\alpha=\max_i\sigma_i^{-1}\circ\alpha_i\circ\sigma_iα~=maxi​σi−1​∘αi​∘σi​ is positive definite.
  3. η=max⁡i,j≠iσi−1∘χij∘σj\eta=\max_{i,j\ne i}\sigma_i^{-1}\circ\chi_{ij}\circ\sigma_jη=maxi,j=i​σi−1​∘χij​∘σj​ satisfies η(r)<r\eta(r)<rη(r)<r for r>0r>0r>0.
  4. The jump estimate: V(g(x,ξ))≤max⁡{α∗(V(x)),η(V(x)),χ(∥ξ∥)}V(g(x,\xi))\le\max\{\alpha^*(V(x)),\eta(V(x)),\chi(\|\xi\|)\}V(g(x,ξ))≤max{α∗(V(x)),η(V(x)),χ(∥ξ∥)} for every α∗∈K\alpha^*\in\mathcal Kα∗∈K with α∗≥α~\alpha^*\ge\tilde\alphaα∗≥α~.

A companion item states Proposition 3.1 (⇒\Rightarrow⇒): the max form of the jump condition, with a gain in K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​, gives an ISS-Lyapunov function in the implication form of Definition 4.

Significance

The theorem reduces a question about a network to questions about its parts and their gains. Together with the dwell-time theorems of the same paper (Theorems 1 and 5), it yields ISS of an impulsive interconnection for classes of impulse sequences, using only Lyapunov functions of the subsystems and the gain matrix. It is also the starting point of the paper's exponential small-gain theorem (Theorem 9).

The result is proved on paper. Its continuous half is quoted from MCSS 2012, whose proof follows Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth 2010. To our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. A formal proof would provide:

  • Dini-derivative calculus for maxima of finitely many functions composed with locally Lipschitz increasing maps;
  • a reusable interface for comparison functions and Ω\OmegaΩ-paths;
  • a precise statement of what the theorem delivers. Two points of the printed statement need correction (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The jump half is order-theoretic and short. The continuous half is the obstacle. VVV is a maximum of compositions σi−1∘Vi\sigma_i^{-1}\circ V_iσi−1​∘Vi​, and σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ is only locally Lipschitz, differentiable almost everywhere. The page's formula φ(r)=min⁡i(σi−1)′(σi(r))φi(σi(r))\varphi(r)=\min_i(\sigma_i^{-1})'(\sigma_i(r))\varphi_i(\sigma_i(r))φ(r)=mini​(σi−1​)′(σi​(r))φi​(σi​(r)) evaluates a derivative that may not exist, and even where it does exist it need not be continuous in rrr.

The obvious argument, "differentiate the active component", does not work as stated. The Dini derivative of a maximum is controlled by the active indices only once one shows that inactive indices stay inactive for short times. That step needs continuity of the flow, and a rate φ\varphiφ that is continuous and positive has to be extracted from derivative bounds that hold only on compacts. Near the origin the compositions can fail to be Lipschitz, which is why the flow estimate is asserted away from x=0x=0x=0.

Formalization scope

  • The system is the pair (ϕc,g)(\phi_c,g)(ϕc​,g), with these axioms: the flow starts at its initial state, satisfies the cocycle law for piecewise-continuous inputs, is continuous in time, and fixes the origin, and g(0,0)=0g(0,0)=0g(0,0)=0. The initial time is 000. Inputs are functions R→U\mathbb R\to UR→U, right-continuous with left limits, finitely many discontinuities on bounded intervals, and bounded on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  • Values. Comparison functions are maps R≥0→R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​→R≥0​ from the published SmallGainISS.Lyapunov.Gains definition, which also supplies the Ω\OmegaΩ-path. The Dini derivative is the published diniUpperRight, valued in the extended reals.
  • The product space. XXX is the Pi type over Fin n. Its built-in sup norm is never used; the sum norm is explicit.
  • Hypothesis (4.5) is stated along the components of the interconnection's own flow, which is the instance the proof uses.
  • Corrections to the printed statement, each disclosed in the items:
    • The conclusion is in the max form of Proposition 3.1 (Remark 8), not Definition 4, because χ\chiχ of (4.11) is in K\mathcal KK but not necessarily in K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​.
    • The flow estimate is asserted for x≠0x\ne0x=0. With n=1n=1n=1, x˙=−x+u\dot x=-x+ux˙=−x+u, V1=∣x∣V_1=|x|V1​=∣x∣, σ1(r)=r2\sigma_1(r)=r^2σ1​(r)=r2 and u(t)=min⁡(t,1)u(t)=\min(t,1)u(t)=min(t,1), one gets V˙u(0)=1/2>0\dot V_u(0)=1/\sqrt2>0V˙u​(0)=1/2​>0, so the printed claim at the origin fails.
    • The milestone jump estimate uses the page's monotone majorant α∗≥α~\alpha^*\ge\tilde\alphaα∗≥α~, since α~\tilde\alphaα~ itself need not be increasing.
  • Trivializations ruled out. The Lie derivative is a Dini derivative in the extended reals, not a real-valued limit with junk values. No supremum norm of inputs appears. The system and subsystem predicates are satisfiable by a nontrivial example (two decoupled copies of x˙=−x\dot x=-xx˙=−x with g=x/2g=x/2g=x/2, Vi=∣xi∣V_i=|x_i|Vi​=∣xi​∣, cross gains r/2r/2r/2, σ=id\sigma=\mathrm{id}σ=id), checked in Lean. The rates φ,α\varphi,\alphaφ,α are quantified after the data, as on the page.
  • Contributions welcome: a Dini max rule for finitely many continuous functions; a chain rule for the upper Dini derivative through a locally Lipschitz increasing map; and the construction of a continuous positive minorant of a locally positive function.

Selected references

  • S. Dashkovskiy, A. Mironchenko, Input-to-state stability of nonlinear impulsive systems, arXiv:1212.5481v1, 2012; SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1212.5481, https://doi.org/10.1137/120881993
  • S. Dashkovskiy, A. Mironchenko, Input-to-state stability of infinite-dimensional control systems, Math. Control Signals Systems, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00498-012-0090-2
  • S. N. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, Small gain theorems for large scale systems and construction of ISS Lyapunov functions, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.1842
  • Z.-P. Jiang, I. M. Y. Mareels, Y. Wang, A Lyapunov formulation of the nonlinear small-gain theorem for interconnected ISS systems, Automatica 32(8), 1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-1098(96)00051-9
  • D. Nešić, A. R. Teel, A Lyapunov-based small-gain theorem for hybrid ISS systems, Proc. 47th IEEE CDC, 2008 (cited by the paper as [19]; no resolvable link verified).
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization 3: On a Finite Support the Empirical DRO Equals the Burg-Divergence DRO with χ²₁ RadiusResearch Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) evaluates a decision against a collection of probability distributions near an empirical one. In a finite scenario model, the familiar construction puts a divergence ball around the histogram of observed scenarios. Lam's empirical construction instead gives one weight to each observation, even when several observations have the same value. The distinction matters because a sample can contain repeated values and can omit some points of the stated support. The paper uses a Burg-entropy ball on those observation weights to recover statistical guarantees for an expected loss, despite the empirical ball having low probability of containing the true distribution. Lam, §§2.1–2.3, pp. 5–9.

Proposition 1 identifies what this observation-level construction becomes when the random quantity has finite support: its lower and upper DRO values coincide with values from a Burg-divergence ball on the support histogram. This links a method defined on individual data points to the standard finite-scenario formulation. The radius uses a one-degree-of-freedom chi-square quantile because the paper calibrates an expected value at a fixed decision; it does not use the k−1k-1k−1 degrees of freedom associated with estimating a full kkk-point distribution. Lam, Proposition 1, p. 11, and the discussion on pp. 8–9.

Setting

Fix a decision xxx and a real loss h(x;si)h(x;s_i)h(x;si​) at each of kkk support points s1,…,sks_1,\ldots,s_ks1​,…,sk​. A sample of size nnn has an assignment c(j)c(j)c(j) telling which support point produced observation jjj. Write nin_ini​ for the number of assignments to point iii and p^i=ni/n\hat p_i=n_i/np^​i​=ni​/n for the empirical histogram. The support points need not all appear in the sample. The decision and loss only determine a finite vector of loss values; no probability space is needed for this deterministic comparison. Lam, §2.1, p. 6, and Proposition 1, p. 11.

The empirical Burg ball Un(η)\mathcal U_n(\eta)Un​(η) consists of observation weights w1,…,wnw_1,\ldots,w_nw1​,…,wn​ that are nonnegative, sum to one, and obey −n−1∑jlog⁡(nwj)≤η-n^{-1}\sum_j\log(nw_j)\le\eta−n−1∑j​log(nwj​)≤η. The support Burg ball UBurg′(η)\mathcal U'_{\mathrm{Burg}}(\eta)UBurg′​(η) consists of support weights p1,…,pkp_1,\ldots,p_kp1​,…,pk​ that are nonnegative, sum to one, are absolutely continuous with respect to p^\hat pp^​, and obey −∑ip^ilog⁡(pi/p^i)≤η-\sum_i\hat p_i\log(p_i/\hat p_i)\le\eta−∑i​p^​i​log(pi​/p^​i​)≤η. At an observed point, finite Burg divergence requires pi>0p_i>0pi​>0; at an unobserved point, absolute continuity requires pi=0p_i=0pi​=0. Lam, (13)–(15), pp. 5–6; (19), p. 8; (28), p. 11.

For a support weight vector ppp, the expected loss is ∑ipih(x;si)\sum_i p_i h(x;s_i)∑i​pi​h(x;si​). For an observation weight vector www, it is ∑jwjh(x;sc(j))\sum_j w_j h(x;s_{c(j)})∑j​wj​h(x;sc(j)​). The empirical lower and upper values are the minimum and maximum over Un(η)\mathcal U_n(\eta)Un​(η); the support values use UBurg′(η)\mathcal U'_{\mathrm{Burg}}(\eta)UBurg′​(η). The same empirical ball is used for both bounds. Lam, (26)–(28), p. 11.

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 1. For every n>0n>0n>0, every assignment of the sample to finite support points, every fixed decision xxx, and every κ≥0\kappa\ge0κ≥0, set η=κ/(2n)\eta=\kappa/(2n)η=κ/(2n). Then

min⁡w∈Un(η)∑j=1nwjh(x;sc(j))=min⁡p∈UBurg′(η)∑i=1kpih(x;si),\min_{w\in\mathcal U_n(\eta)}\sum_{j=1}^n w_jh(x;s_{c(j)}) =\min_{p\in\mathcal U'_{\mathrm{Burg}}(\eta)}\sum_{i=1}^k p_ih(x;s_i),w∈Un​(η)min​j=1∑n​wj​h(x;sc(j)​)=p∈UBurg′​(η)min​i=1∑k​pi​h(x;si​), max⁡w∈Un(η)∑j=1nwjh(x;sc(j))=max⁡p∈UBurg′(η)∑i=1kpih(x;si).\max_{w\in\mathcal U_n(\eta)}\sum_{j=1}^n w_jh(x;s_{c(j)}) =\max_{p\in\mathcal U'_{\mathrm{Burg}}(\eta)}\sum_{i=1}^k p_ih(x;s_i).w∈Un​(η)max​j=1∑n​wj​h(x;sc(j)​)=p∈UBurg′​(η)max​i=1∑k​pi​h(x;si​).

The printed proposition takes κ=χ1,1−α2\kappa=\chi^2_{1,1-\alpha}κ=χ1,1−α2​. The deterministic identity holds at every nonnegative κ\kappaκ, including zero. The two milestones record the source proof's statements that a feasible support vector gives a feasible observation vector with the same objective value, and conversely that a feasible observation vector gives a feasible support vector with the same objective value. Lam, Proposition 1, p. 11, proof p. 24.

Significance

The identity lets a finite-support user compute the empirical DRO values with one variable per distinct support point instead of one per observation, without changing either bound. It also shows precisely how Lam's empirical calibration relates to a conventional histogram-based divergence model: the ambiguity sets have different coordinates, but the resulting extrema of any loss constant on each class agree. This is the finite-support interpretation stated immediately after Theorem 2, and it explains the radius comparison on pp. 8–9. Lam, pp. 8–9 and Proposition 1, p. 11.

The result is proved in the paper; the remaining task is a machine-checked proof of the two transformations and the equality of extrema. The published formal library already contains the observation-level ϕ\phiϕ-divergence ball and its robust upper mean, and a shared setting supplies the Burg generator and lower empirical value. This mission adds the support histogram, its Burg ball, and the bridge between the two representations. Those definitions and transformations can also be reused for other finite-support losses. The paper's separate pointwise coverage and consistency results are goals of other missions in this series. Lam, Theorems 2–3 and Proposition 1, pp. 11–12.

Difficulty

Repeated observations make the two weight spaces different: the empirical problem has nnn coordinates and the support problem has kkk. Simply identifying coordinates loses multiplicities in both the normalization and the logarithmic divergence. Empty classes create a second boundary case, since no observation weight can be assigned to an unobserved support point. A statement that silently permits such mass changes the support optimization value. The full reduction must preserve feasible objective values in both directions, for the lower and upper extrema. Lam, proof of Proposition 1, p. 24.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin n for observations and Fin k for support points, with zero-based indices, a class map ccc, real loss values, and the paper's Burg generator valued in EReal. Nonpositive likelihood ratios receive +∞+\infty+∞. The empirical ball reuses the published PhiDivRobust.Counterpart.probUncertaintySet; its upper value is the published GenEmpLik.Expansion.robustMean. The lower value is a real infimum over the same ball. The condition n>0n>0n>0 and the nonnegative radius make both feasible value sets nonempty and bounded, so the real infimum and supremum mean the paper's minimum and maximum. The histogram can have zero entries. Lam, (19), (26)–(28), pp. 8, 11.

Display (28) omits a condition from the preceding definition of a divergence ball: ppp must be absolutely continuous with respect to p^\hat pp^​. Without it, an unobserved support point can receive positive mass and Proposition 1 is false. The formal support ball includes p^i=0⇒pi=0\hat p_i=0\Rightarrow p_i=0p^​i​=0⇒pi​=0 from (13)–(14). It also requires pi>0p_i>0pi​>0 where p^i>0\hat p_i>0p^​i​>0, because Lean's real logarithm returns zero at zero whereas the paper's Burg divergence is infinite there. These conditions, together with n>0n>0n>0, exclude trivial values from empty balls, division by zero, and logarithms at invalid weights. The decision set Θ\ThetaΘ is omitted because the paper fixes one xxx and the result holds for every such xxx. Lam, (13)–(14), pp. 5–6, and (28), p. 11.

The development needs finite-sum identities, elementary properties of the probability simplex, the logarithm's concavity, and bounds on the extrema of bounded nonempty finite-dimensional value sets. Contributions that establish the two direction statements, or reusable facts about aggregation of finite probability weights, directly advance this mission. The paper's uniform calibration theorem, Theorem 4, is outside this scope: it needs a Donsker class, a data-dependent chi-square process, and its supremum quantile, none of which enters Proposition 1. Lam, Theorem 4, pp. 13–14.

Selected references

  • Henry Lam, Recovering Best Statistical Guarantees via the Empirical Divergence-Based Distributionally Robust Optimization, arXiv:1605.09349v1, 2016; published in Operations Research 67(4), 2019. arXiv, DOI.
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Prophet Inequalities Made Easy: Stochastic Optimization by Pricing Nonstochastic Inputs II: Posted Expected Weakly (α, β₁, β₂)-Balanced Prices Earn 1/(α(2β₁ + 4β₂)) of the Expected Welfare of ALGResearch Paper

Motivation

A prophet inequality compares an online decision maker, who sees random inputs one at a time and must commit irrevocably, with a "prophet" who sees all inputs in advance. The classic single-item version (Krengel–Sucheston, Samuel-Cahn) says that a well-chosen fixed threshold earns at least half of the expected maximum. In mechanism design the same statement reads: a posted-price mechanism, which offers each arriving buyer a take-it-or-leave-it menu of prices, extracts a constant fraction of the optimal expected welfare, and does so in a way that is truthful, simple and order oblivious.

Dütting, Feldman, Kesselheim and Lucier (SIAM J. Comput. 49 (2020)) reduce the construction of such prices to a deterministic question. If, for every fixed valuation profile vvv, one can find prices pvp^vpv that are balanced — high enough to pay for the welfare an early allocation destroys, low enough that whatever is still feasible stays affordable — then the expected prices Ev~[pv~]\mathbb E_{\tilde v}[p^{\tilde v}]Ev~​[pv~], suitably scaled, give a prophet inequality. This is their Theorem 3.2 for (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β)-balanced prices. For combinatorial auctions with bundles of size at most ddd, MPH-kkk valuations and related settings, the natural prices only satisfy a weaker condition, in which the affordability bound may also spend a multiple of the benchmark welfare. Theorem 3.5, the subject of this mission, is the extension theorem for that weak balancedness; it is what turns the paper's Theorem 4.1 (bundle size ddd) and Theorem 1.6 (MPH-kkk) into O(d)O(d)O(d)- and O(k)O(k)O(k)-approximate posted-price mechanisms.

Setting

There are nnn agents N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. Agent iii has an outcome space XiX_iXi​ containing a null outcome ∅\emptyset∅; outcome profiles are x∈X=X1×⋯×Xnx\in X=X_1\times\cdots\times X_nx∈X=X1​×⋯×Xn​. For S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N, xSx_SxS​ gives xix_ixi​ to the agents in SSS and ∅\emptyset∅ to the others, and x[i−1]x_{[i-1]}x[i−1]​ keeps only the agents before iii. The feasible profiles form a set F⊆X\mathcal F\subseteq XF⊆X that is downward closed (x∈F⇒xS∈Fx\in\mathcal F\Rightarrow x_S\in\mathcal Fx∈F⇒xS​∈F).

Agent iii has a valuation vi:Xi→[0,1]v_i:X_i\to[0,1]vi​:Xi​→[0,1], drawn independently from a known distribution Di\mathcal D_iDi​; D=∏iDi\mathcal D=\prod_i\mathcal D_iD=∏i​Di​. The welfare of xxx is v(x)=∑ivi(xi)v(x)=\sum_i v_i(x_i)v(x)=∑i​vi​(xi​), and v(OPT(v,S))=sup⁡x∈Sv(x)v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,S))=\sup_{x\in S}v(x)v(OPT(v,S))=supx∈S​v(x) (zero on S=∅S=\emptysetS=∅). An allocation rule ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG maps every valuation profile to a feasible outcome.

A pricing rule assigns prices pi(xi∣y)∈[0,∞]p_i(x_i\mid y)\in[0,\infty]pi​(xi​∣y)∈[0,∞] to outcome xix_ixi​ offered to agent iii given the partial allocation yyy, with pi(xi∣y)=∞p_i(x_i\mid y)=\inftypi​(xi​∣y)=∞ when (xi,y−i)∉F(x_i,y_{-i})\notin\mathcal F(xi​,y−i​)∈/F. In the posted-price mechanism the agents are approached in index order; agent iii sees the prices pi(⋅∣x[i−1])p_i(\cdot\mid x_{[i-1]})pi​(⋅∣x[i−1]​) and buys a utility-maximizing outcome, utility being vi(xi)−pi(xi∣x[i−1])v_i(x_i)-p_i(x_i\mid x_{[i-1]})vi​(xi​)−pi​(xi​∣x[i−1]​).

A family (Fx)x∈X(\mathcal F_x)_{x\in X}(Fx​)x∈X​ of sets of profiles is exchange compatible if (yi,x−i)∈F(y_i,x_{-i})\in\mathcal F(yi​,x−i​)∈F for every x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, y∈Fxy\in\mathcal F_xy∈Fx​ and iii. Given α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β1,β2≥0\beta_1,\beta_2\ge0β1​,β2​≥0, a pricing rule pvp^vpv is weakly (α,β1,β2)(\alpha,\beta_1,\beta_2)(α,β1​,β2​)-balanced (Definition 3.4) with respect to ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG and (Fx)(\mathcal F_x)(Fx​) if for every x∈Fx\in\mathcal Fx∈F

(a)∑ipiv(xi∣x[i−1]) ≥ 1α(v(ALG(v))−v(OPT(v,Fx))),\text{(a)}\quad \sum_i p^v_i(x_i\mid x_{[i-1]})\ \ge\ \tfrac1\alpha\bigl(v(\mathrm{ALG}(v))-v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))\bigr),(a)i∑​piv​(xi​∣x[i−1]​) ≥ α1​(v(ALG(v))−v(OPT(v,Fx​))), (b)∑ipiv(xi′∣x[i−1]) ≤ β1 v(OPT(v,Fx))+β2 v(ALG(v))for all x′∈Fx.\text{(b)}\quad \sum_i p^v_i(x'_i\mid x_{[i-1]})\ \le\ \beta_1\,v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))+\beta_2\,v(\mathrm{ALG}(v))\quad\text{for all }x'\in\mathcal F_x.(b)i∑​piv​(xi′​∣x[i−1]​) ≤ β1​v(OPT(v,Fx​))+β2​v(ALG(v))for all x′∈Fx​.

A collection (pv)v(p^v)_{v}(pv)v​ is weakly balanced if one exchange-compatible family works for every vvv.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.5 (p. 551)

If (pv)v(p^v)_v(pv)v​ is weakly (α,β1,β2)(\alpha,\beta_1,\beta_2)(α,β1​,β2​)-balanced with β1+β2≥1/α\beta_1+\beta_2\ge1/\alphaβ1​+β2​≥1/α, then with

δ=1β1+max⁡{2β2,1/α},pi(xi∣y)=Ev~[piv~(xi∣y)],\delta=\frac1{\beta_1+\max\{2\beta_2,1/\alpha\}},\qquad p_i(x_i\mid y)=\mathbb E_{\tilde v}\bigl[p^{\tilde v}_i(x_i\mid y)\bigr],δ=β1​+max{2β2​,1/α}1​,pi​(xi​∣y)=Ev~​[piv~​(xi​∣y)],

the posted-price mechanism with prices δp\delta pδp, approaching agents in index order, satisfies

Ev[∑ivi(xi(v))] ≥ 1α(2β1+4β2) Ev[v(ALG(v))].\mathbb E_v\Bigl[\sum_i v_i(x_i(v))\Bigr]\ \ge\ \frac1{\alpha(2\beta_1+4\beta_2)}\,\mathbb E_v\bigl[v(\mathrm{ALG}(v))\bigr].Ev​[i∑​vi​(xi​(v))] ≥ α(2β1​+4β2​)1​Ev​[v(ALG(v))].

Milestones (Appendix A, pp. 559–560)

  1. Each agent's utility in the run is nonnegative.
  2. (A.1): the total expected utility is at least the value of a ghost-sample deviation x′(v,v′)∈Fx(v)x'(v,v')\in\mathcal F_{x(v)}x′(v,v′)∈Fx(v)​ minus its expected price.
  3. (A.2): property (b) bounds that price by δβ1E[v~(OPT(v~,Fx(v)))]+δβ2E[v~(ALG(v~))]\delta\beta_1\mathbb E[\tilde v(\mathrm{OPT}(\tilde v,\mathcal F_{x(v)}))]+\delta\beta_2\mathbb E[\tilde v(\mathrm{ALG}(\tilde v))]δβ1​E[v~(OPT(v~,Fx(v)​))]+δβ2​E[v~(ALG(v~))].
  4. (A.3): E[∑iui]≥(1−δβ1) E[v~(OPT(v~,Fx(v)))]−δβ2 E[v~(ALG(v~))]\mathbb E[\sum_iu_i]\ge(1-\delta\beta_1)\,\mathbb E[\tilde v(\mathrm{OPT}(\tilde v,\mathcal F_{x(v)}))]-\delta\beta_2\,\mathbb E[\tilde v(\mathrm{ALG}(\tilde v))]E[∑i​ui​]≥(1−δβ1​)E[v~(OPT(v~,Fx(v)​))]−δβ2​E[v~(ALG(v~))].
  5. (A.4): property (a) bounds the expected revenue from below.
  6. Case 1, β2≥1/(2α)\beta_2\ge1/(2\alpha)β2​≥1/(2α), δ=1/(β1+2β2)\delta=1/(\beta_1+2\beta_2)δ=1/(β1​+2β2​): the goal's bound.
  7. Case 2, β2<1/(2α)\beta_2<1/(2\alpha)β2​<1/(2α), δ=1/(β1+1/α)\delta=1/(\beta_1+1/\alpha)δ=1/(β1​+1/α): the bound with constant (1−αβ2)/(1+αβ1)(1-\alpha\beta_2)/(1+\alpha\beta_1)(1−αβ2​)/(1+αβ1​).
  8. Case 2's last step: (1−αβ2)/(1+αβ1)≥1/(α(2β1+4β2))(1-\alpha\beta_2)/(1+\alpha\beta_1)\ge1/(\alpha(2\beta_1+4\beta_2))(1−αβ2​)/(1+αβ1​)≥1/(α(2β1​+4β2​)) under the theorem's constraints.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.5 is the second of the paper's two extension theorems. Its hypothesis is a deterministic, full-information property of prices, which is often checkable by a direct combinatorial argument; its conclusion is a Bayesian guarantee for an online, truthful mechanism. The paper instantiates it with weakly (1,1,d−1)(1,1,d-1)(1,1,d−1)-balanced fractional prices for combinatorial auctions with bundle size at most ddd (Theorem 4.1) and for MPH-kkk valuations (Theorem 1.6), obtaining approximation ratios linear in ddd and kkk, where (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β)-balancedness alone would not apply.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a formal account of the sequential posted-price mechanism with history-dependent prices (an online run defined by recursion over the agents), of the ghost-sample argument, and of the case analysis in δ\deltaδ. The definitions are general enough that the paper's applications — and other balanced-price arguments — can be stated on top of them. The printed proof has a slip: (A.1) is printed as an equality but only the inequality "≥\ge≥" holds; the formalization states the inequality.

Difficulty

Two steps carry the content. First, the utility bound (A.1): agent iii could have bought its part of the deviation x′(v,v′)x'(v,v')x′(v,v′), but that deviation is defined from the run on a different profile. The argument needs that the partial allocation x[i−1](v)x_{[i-1]}(v)x[i−1]​(v) does not depend on viv_ivi​ — the mechanism is online — and that exchanging viv_ivi​ with an independent copy vi′v'_ivi′​ preserves the joint law. Making this exchange rigorous on a product measure, and handling an empty Fx(v)\mathcal F_{x(v)}Fx(v)​ (where no deviation exists and the bound must come from ui≥0u_i\ge0ui​≥0), is where the work lies. Second, v(OPT(v,Fx))v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))v(OPT(v,Fx​)) is a supremum that need not be attained, so "buy your part of OPT" must be replaced by near-optimal selections and a limit.

The tempting shortcut of treating weak balancedness as (α,β1+β2)(\alpha,\beta_1+\beta_2)(α,β1​+β2​)-balancedness and applying Theorem 3.2 does not work: property (b) of Definition 3.1 bounds prices by a multiple of v(OPT(v,Fx))v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))v(OPT(v,Fx​)) alone, which can be zero while v(ALG(v))v(\mathrm{ALG}(v))v(ALG(v)) is not.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n, 0-based: the paper's agent iii is index i−1i-1i−1, and "the order they are indexed" is the order of Fin n. Prices take values in ENNReal with ∞=⊤\infty=\top∞=⊤; price sums are never converted to reals, and property (a) passes its right side through ENNReal.ofReal (a negative bound becomes 000, which is the page's meaning). v(OPT(v,S))v(\mathrm{OPT}(v,S))v(OPT(v,S)) is the real supremum sSup, zero on the empty set, meaningful because values lie in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Valuations are given by type spaces ViV_iVi​ and an evaluation vali(w,xi)∈[0,1]\mathrm{val}_i(w,x_i)\in[0,1]vali​(w,xi​)∈[0,1]. The type spaces are countable with discrete σ-algebras — a disclosed restriction of the paper's general distributions, which makes every function measurable and every bounded one integrable. The null outcome is assumed free at feasible partial allocations (piv~(∅∣y)=0p^{\tilde v}_i(\emptyset\mid y)=0piv~​(∅∣y)=0 for y∈Fy\in\mathcal Fy∈F): every pricing rule in the paper has this property, and the proof needs its consequence ui(v)≥0u_i(v)\ge0ui​(v)≥0. Exchange compatibility is required for all x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, as printed. The agents' behaviour is a choice rule that sees only the agent's own type and the earlier agents' outcomes and maximizes utility at every feasible partial allocation; at infeasible ones no requirement is made. The constant δ\deltaδ is written literally inside the posted prices, never as a free parameter.

The milestones (A.1)–(A.4) are stated for an arbitrary δ>0\delta>0δ>0, and (A.1)–(A.2) for an arbitrary selector into Fx(v)\mathcal F_{x(v)}Fx(v)​ in place of the maximizer, with an explicit zero when Fx(v)=∅\mathcal F_{x(v)}=\emptysetFx(v)​=∅; both are generalizations of the printed steps. A statement in which the agents' optimality hypothesis can never be met, or in which an infinite price sum is read as 000, would make the goal vacuous; the encoding above excludes both, and a sorry-free one-agent instance in the workspace confirms that all hypotheses of the goal can hold together.

Needed infrastructure: product measures and the swap of one coordinate with an independent copy, lower integrals of ENNReal-valued prices, the recursion defining the run, and near-maximizers of bounded suprema. The model and mechanism definitions are reusable for the paper's other extension theorem (Theorem 3.2) and its applications. Contributions are welcome on any milestone; the pure inequality of Case 2 is self-contained.

Selected references

  • P. Dütting, M. Feldman, T. Kesselheim, B. Lucier, Prophet inequalities made easy: Stochastic optimization by pricing nonstochastic inputs, SIAM Journal on Computing 49(3):540–582, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1323850
  • U. Krengel, L. Sucheston, Semiamarts and finite values, Bulletin of the AMS 83(4):745–747, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1977-14378-4
  • E. Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Annals of Probability 12(4):1213–1216, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993150
  • R. Kleinberg, S. M. Weinberg, Matroid prophet inequalities, STOC 2012, 123–136. https://doi.org/10.1145/2213977.2213991
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Optimization-Based Scenario Reduction for Data-Driven Two-Stage Stochastic Optimization II: Under a Symmetric Uncertainty Law the Mean Solves the Convex Upper-Bound Scenario ProblemResearch Paper

Why reduce scenarios with the cost in view

A two-stage stochastic programme chooses a decision zzz before an uncertain parameter ξ\xiξ is revealed and pays a cost c(z;ξ)c(z;\xi)c(z;ξ). When ξ\xiξ is known only through nnn data points, or through a law with many atoms, the expected cost is expensive to optimize, and practitioners replace the law by a small set of mmm reduced scenarios. Classical scenario reduction chooses these scenarios to be close to the data in a Wasserstein distance, without looking at the cost (Dupačová, Gröwe-Kuska and Römisch, 2003; Rujeerapaiboon, Schindler, Kuhn and Wiesemann, 2022). Bertsimas and Mundru (Operations Research, 2023) propose problem-dependent scenario reduction: the distance between two scenarios measures how much the optimal decision for one costs when evaluated on the other. Their method needs, for each cluster of data, the scenario that minimizes a cost-dependent dissimilarity, which they replace by a convex upper bound, problem (16).

Theorem 3 of the paper is the sanity check for that upper bound. For the simplest cost to which it applies and a single reduced scenario (m=1m=1m=1), under a symmetry assumption on the law, the minimizer of the upper bound is the mean of ξ\xiξ, which is also what Wasserstein scenario reduction returns for m=1m=1m=1. This mission formalizes that statement.

Setting

Decisions and parameters both live in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, with the Euclidean inner product z′ξz'\xiz′ξ. The feasible set is a polytope

Z={z∈R+d:Pz≤q},\mathcal Z = \{ z\in\mathbb R^d_+ : Pz\le q\},Z={z∈R+d​:Pz≤q},

for a matrix P∈Rr×dP\in\mathbb R^{r\times d}P∈Rr×d and a vector q∈Rrq\in\mathbb R^rq∈Rr, assumed nonempty and bounded. The cost is c(z;ξ)=max⁡{z′ξ,0}c(z;\xi)=\max\{z'\xi,0\}c(z;ξ)=max{z′ξ,0}, a special case of the piecewise bilinear costs max⁡1≤t≤kz′Atξ\max_{1\le t\le k} z'A_t\ximax1≤t≤k​z′At​ξ of (15) (take k=2k=2k=2, A1=IA_1=IA1​=I, A2=0A_2=0A2​=0).

An optimal-decision map is any function z∗:Rd→Rdz^*:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dz∗:Rd→Rd with z∗(ξ)∈arg⁡min⁡z∈Zz′ξz^*(\xi)\in\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z} z'\xiz∗(ξ)∈argminz∈Z​z′ξ for every ξ\xiξ; for a vector vvv, Z∗(v)=arg⁡min⁡z∈Zz′v\mathcal Z^*(v)=\arg\min_{z\in\mathcal Z} z'vZ∗(v)=argminz∈Z​z′v is the whole set of minimizers. The set of cost-reducing parameters is

U={ξ:min⁡z∈Zz′ξ<0}.\mathcal U=\Big\{\xi : \min_{z\in\mathcal Z} z'\xi<0\Big\}.U={ξ:z∈Zmin​z′ξ<0}.

For a candidate reduced scenario ζ∈Rd\zeta\in\mathbb R^dζ∈Rd, the per-scenario upper-bound loss is

L(ξ,ζ)=max⁡{max⁡z∈Zz′(ξ−2ζ), 0}+2max⁡{z∗(ξ)′ζ, 0}.L(\xi,\zeta)=\max\Big\{\max_{z\in\mathcal Z} z'(\xi-2\zeta),\,0\Big\}+2\max\{z^*(\xi)'\zeta,\,0\}.L(ξ,ζ)=max{z∈Zmax​z′(ξ−2ζ),0}+2max{z∗(ξ)′ζ,0}.

For this cost it is the optimal value, in the auxiliary variables (λ,θ,γ)(\lambda,\theta,\gamma)(λ,θ,γ), of the per-point linear programme in (16). With a random parameter ξ\xiξ of law μ\muμ, the upper-bound objective for m=1m=1m=1 is E[L(ξ,ζ)]\mathbb E[L(\xi,\zeta)]E[L(ξ,ζ)]. The squared cost for Wasserstein reduction to one atom is W(ζ)=∫∥ξ−ζ∥22 dμW(\zeta)=\int\|\xi-\zeta\|_2^2\,d\muW(ζ)=∫∥ξ−ζ∥22​dμ; (4) takes its square root, which preserves minimizers.

Assumption 5 (p. 24) asks:

  • (a) ξ\xiξ has a continuous distribution on U\mathcal UU and density 000 elsewhere;
  • (b) the mean ξˉ=E[ξ]\bar\xi=\mathbb E[\xi]ξˉ​=E[ξ] is finite and z∗(ξˉ)′ξˉ>0z^*(\bar\xi)'\bar\xi>0z∗(ξˉ​)′ξˉ​>0;
  • (c) the law of ξ\xiξ is symmetric about ξˉ\bar\xiξˉ​, that is, ξ\xiξ and 2ξˉ−ξ2\bar\xi-\xi2ξˉ​−ξ are equal in distribution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 24)

Under Assumption 5, for every measurable optimal-decision map z∗z^*z∗,

E[L(ξ,ξˉ)]  ≤  E[L(ξ,ζ)]andW(ξˉ)≤W(ζ)for all ζ∈Rd.\mathbb E\big[L(\xi,\bar\xi)\big]\;\le\;\mathbb E\big[L(\xi,\zeta)\big]\quad\text{and}\quad W(\bar\xi)\le W(\zeta)\qquad\text{for all }\zeta\in\mathbb R^d.E[L(ξ,ξˉ​)]≤E[L(ξ,ζ)]andW(ξˉ​)≤W(ζ)for all ζ∈Rd.

The page's "the solution … is simply the mean" is read as "the mean is a minimizer", which is what the proof concludes; uniqueness is not claimed.

Milestones (steps of the proof, pp. 24–25)

  1. For each ξ\xiξ, ζ↦L(ξ,ζ)\zeta\mapsto L(\xi,\zeta)ζ↦L(ξ,ζ) is convex.
  2. L(ξ,ζ)≤∣max⁡z∈Zz′(ξ−2ζ)∣+2∣ζ′z∗(ξ)∣≤(∥ξ−2ζ∥1+2∥ζ∥1)max⁡z∈Z∥z∥∞≤(∥ξ∥1+4∥ζ∥1)max⁡z∈Z∥z∥∞L(\xi,\zeta)\le\big|\max_{z\in\mathcal Z} z'(\xi-2\zeta)\big|+2|\zeta'z^*(\xi)|\le(\|\xi-2\zeta\|_1+2\|\zeta\|_1)\max_{z\in\mathcal Z}\|z\|_\infty\le(\|\xi\|_1+4\|\zeta\|_1)\max_{z\in\mathcal Z}\|z\|_\inftyL(ξ,ζ)≤​maxz∈Z​z′(ξ−2ζ)​+2∣ζ′z∗(ξ)∣≤(∥ξ−2ζ∥1​+2∥ζ∥1​)maxz∈Z​∥z∥∞​≤(∥ξ∥1​+4∥ζ∥1​)maxz∈Z​∥z∥∞​.
  3. With probability one, 2ξˉ−ξ∈U2\bar\xi-\xi\in\mathcal U2ξˉ​−ξ∈U and Z∗(2ξˉ−ξ)\mathcal Z^*(2\bar\xi-\xi)Z∗(2ξˉ​−ξ) is a singleton.
  4. Under symmetry, E[z∗(2ξˉ−ξ)]=E[z∗(ξ)]\mathbb E[z^*(2\bar\xi-\xi)]=\mathbb E[z^*(\xi)]E[z∗(2ξˉ​−ξ)]=E[z∗(ξ)].
  5. If z∗(ξˉ)′ξˉ>0z^*(\bar\xi)'\bar\xi>0z∗(ξˉ​)′ξˉ​>0 then z′ξˉ≥z∗(ξˉ)′ξˉ>0z'\bar\xi\ge z^*(\bar\xi)'\bar\xi>0z′ξˉ​≥z∗(ξˉ​)′ξˉ​>0 for every z∈Zz\in\mathcal Zz∈Z.

Significance

The upper bound (16) is the computational core of the paper's Algorithm 1: each alternating-minimization step solves one instance of it per cluster. Theorem 3 is the only result in the paper that identifies its minimizer in closed form, and it shows that, in a symmetric case, the cost-aware reduction agrees with the classical one at m=1m=1m=1. It is the paper's justification that the upper bound is a sensible surrogate and not an arbitrary convex relaxation.

The argument is a variant of the mean-minimizes-the-surrogate result of Elmachtoub and Grigas for the SPO+ loss (Management Science, 2022, Proposition 6(a)), with both terms clipped at zero and with a law living only on U\mathcal UU instead of all of Rd\mathbb R^dRd. Theorem 3 is proved on paper; it has not been formalized, and on Prove2Me the Elmachtoub–Grigas statement is posed but open. The work here is to formalize the known proof, including the measure-theoretic steps the paper treats in one sentence each: integrability of the loss, exchange of the subdifferential and the expectation, and the almost-sure uniqueness of linear minimizers over a polytope.

Difficulty

Convexity of the objective and a vanishing subgradient at ξˉ\bar\xiξˉ​ would settle the theorem, but two steps of that argument are not routine. First, the objective is not differentiable everywhere, and the subdifferential of ζ↦E[L(ξ,ζ)]\zeta\mapsto\mathbb E[L(\xi,\zeta)]ζ↦E[L(ξ,ζ)] is not in general the expectation of the pointwise subdifferentials: the exchange needs the integrable bound of milestone 2 and the almost-sure uniqueness of milestone 3. Second, that uniqueness is a statement about the geometry of polytopes and about the law of the reflected parameter 2ξˉ−ξ2\bar\xi-\xi2ξˉ​−ξ together: neither convexity nor absolute continuity alone gives it. The clipping at zero adds a third point: one has to check that it is inactive at ζ=ξˉ\zeta=\bar\xiζ=ξˉ​ almost surely, which is where Assumption 5a's support condition on U\mathcal UU and Assumption 5b enter. Dropping either half of Assumption 5a breaks the argument: a two-atom symmetric law can put both atoms where Z∗(2ξˉ−ξ)\mathcal Z^*(2\bar\xi-\xi)Z∗(2ξˉ​−ξ) is a whole edge, and a law charging the complement of U\mathcal UU can make the first clipping active at ξˉ\bar\xiξˉ​.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and z′ξz'\xiz′ξ is ⟪z, ξ⟫_ℝ. Decision and parameter spaces coincide (nz=dn_z=dnz​=d), as the cost z′ξz'\xiz′ξ requires.
  • Z\mathcal ZZ is polytope P qv, with the hypotheses that it is nonempty and bounded (§1 of the paper assumes Z\mathcal ZZ nonempty and compact; the polytope is closed).
  • The maximum and minimum of z′vz'vz′v over Z\mathcal ZZ and the argmin set are the published definitions SmartPTO.Fisher.xi, SmartPTO.Fisher.zstar and SmartPTO.Fisher.Wstar; "symmetric about its mean" is the published SmartPTO.Fisher.CentrallySymmetric.
  • z∗z^*z∗ is a function zsel with the hypothesis that zsel ξ is a minimizer for every ξ\xiξ, and it is assumed measurable (needed for E[z∗(ξ)]\mathbb E[z^*(\xi)]E[z∗(ξ)]; not on the page). The theorem holds for every such selection; uniqueness of minimizers is not assumed.
  • The law is a probability measure μ\muμ. Assumption 5a is two hypotheses: μ≪\mu\llμ≪ Lebesgue and μ(Rd∖U)=0\mu(\mathbb R^d\setminus\mathcal U)=0μ(Rd∖U)=0. Full support is not assumed and would contradict the second. Assumption 5b is integrability of ξ\xiξ plus z∗(ξˉ)′ξˉ>0z^*(\bar\xi)'\bar\xi>0z∗(ξˉ​)′ξˉ​>0 with ξˉ=∫ξ dμ\bar\xi=\int\xi\,d\muξˉ​=∫ξdμ.
  • The goal is stated on E[L(ξ,ζ)]\mathbb E[L(\xi,\zeta)]E[L(ξ,ζ)], the first display of the proof, not on the linear programme (16) with its auxiliary variables; for this cost the two coincide by LP duality (Proposition 3's proof), and Theorem 3 is the population, m=1m=1m=1 version.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals, which return 000 for non-integrable integrands. Under the stated hypotheses ξ↦L(ξ,ζ)\xi\mapsto L(\xi,\zeta)ξ↦L(ξ,ζ) is dominated by (∥ξ∥1+4∥ζ∥1)max⁡z∈Z∥z∥∞(\|\xi\|_1+4\|\zeta\|_1)\max_{z\in\mathcal Z}\|z\|_\infty(∥ξ∥1​+4∥ζ∥1​)maxz∈Z​∥z∥∞​ and is integrable, so the goal is not satisfied by junk values; integrability and measurability hypotheses must not be weakened.
  • The Wasserstein clause uses an extended nonnegative integral for WWW. This expresses the theorem without adding a second-moment hypothesis absent from Assumption 5. With a finite second moment it is the usual squared Wasserstein objective; with an infinite second moment every one-atom value is infinite, so the clause has only the extended-value meaning.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: support functions of polytopes and their directional derivatives; the fact that a linear function has a unique minimizer over a polytope for Lebesgue-almost every cost vector; differentiation of convex integral functionals under the integral sign. Contributions of any of these as stand-alone lemmas are welcome.

The source is the authors' accepted manuscript (MIT DSpace, "Submitted to Operations Research"), not the published article; all page and theorem numbers refer to the manuscript, whose printed page numbers equal its PDF page numbers.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas and N. Mundru, Optimization-based Scenario Reduction for Data-Driven Two-stage Stochastic Optimization, Operations Research, 2023 (author manuscript, MIT DSpace). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2265
  • A. N. Elmachtoub and P. Grigas, Smart "Predict, then Optimize", Management Science 68(1), 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3922
  • J. Dupačová, N. Gröwe-Kuska and W. Römisch, Scenario reduction in stochastic programming: an approach using probability metrics, Mathematical Programming 95, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-002-0331-0
  • N. Rujeerapaiboon, K. Schindler, D. Kuhn and W. Wiesemann, Scenario Reduction Revisited: Fundamental Limits and Guarantees, Mathematical Programming 191, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-018-1269-1
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Regret in Online Combinatorial Optimization I: For Every Learning Rate the Exponentially Weighted Forecaster EXP2 Has Full-Information Regret at Least 0.01 d^{3/2}√n on Some Action SetResearch Paper

Motivation

Online combinatorial optimization is a repeated game in which a learner selects, round after round, a structured object (a subset of fixed size, a path, a matching, a spanning tree) encoded as a 0/1 vector, and an adversary assigns a cost to every coordinate. It models routing, ranking, scheduling and many other sequential decision problems in operations research and machine learning, and it contains prediction with expert advice as the special case of one-hot vectors.

The most widely used algorithm for this game is the exponentially weighted forecaster, which keeps a weight on every action and multiplies it by exp⁡(−η⋅loss)\exp(-\eta\cdot\text{loss})exp(−η⋅loss) after each round. Applied to a combinatorial action set it is called EXP2 (Audibert, Bubeck and Lugosi), or Expanded Hedge in the full-information case (Koolen, Warmuth and Kivinen, COLT 2010). Its standard analysis gives regret of order m3/2nlog⁡(d/m)m^{3/2}\sqrt{n\log(d/m)}m3/2nlog(d/m)​, while online mirror descent with the negative entropy (Component Hedge) achieves mnlog⁡(d/m)m\sqrt{n\log(d/m)}mnlog(d/m)​, which is optimal. Koolen, Warmuth and Kivinen left open whether a better tuning or a better analysis of EXP2 could close this gap.

Timeline.

  • 1997: Freund and Schapire analyse Hedge for experts.
  • 2010: Koolen, Warmuth and Kivinen introduce Component Hedge, prove the mnlog⁡(d/m)m\sqrt{n\log(d/m)}mnlog(d/m)​ bound, and ask whether Expanded Hedge can match it.
  • 2012–2014: Audibert, Bubeck and Lugosi (arXiv:1204.4710; Math. Oper. Res. 39(1), 2014) answer negatively: Theorem 1 exhibits an action set on which EXP2's full-information regret is at least 0.01 d3/2n0.01\,d^{3/2}\sqrt n0.01d3/2n​ for every learning rate.

Setting

Fix integers ddd (the dimension) and nnn (the number of rounds). An action set is a nonempty finite set A⊆{0,1}d\mathcal A\subseteq\{0,1\}^dA⊆{0,1}d whose elements all have the same number mmm of ones: ∥a∥1=m\|a\|_1=m∥a∥1​=m for every a∈Aa\in\mathcal Aa∈A. At each round t=1,…,nt=1,\dots,nt=1,…,n:

  1. the player chooses a probability distribution ptp_tpt​ on A\mathcal AA and draws at∼pta_t\sim p_tat​∼pt​;
  2. simultaneously, the adversary chooses a loss vector zt∈[0,1]dz_t\in[0,1]^dzt​∈[0,1]d;
  3. the player pays at⊤zta_t^\top z_tat⊤​zt​ and, in the full-information game, observes ztz_tzt​.

The regret after nnn rounds is

Rn=E∑t=1nat⊤zt−min⁡a∈AE∑t=1na⊤zt.R_n=\mathbb E\sum_{t=1}^n a_t^\top z_t-\min_{a\in\mathcal A}\mathbb E\sum_{t=1}^n a^\top z_t .Rn​=Et=1∑n​at⊤​zt​−a∈Amin​Et=1∑n​a⊤zt​.

EXP2 with learning rate η\etaη starts from the uniform distribution p1p_1p1​ on A\mathcal AA and updates, for every a∈Aa\in\mathcal Aa∈A,

pt+1(a)=exp⁡(−η a⊤zt) pt(a)∑b∈Aexp⁡(−η b⊤zt) pt(b).p_{t+1}(a)=\frac{\exp(-\eta\,a^\top z_t)\,p_t(a)}{\sum_{b\in\mathcal A}\exp(-\eta\,b^\top z_t)\,p_t(b)} .pt+1​(a)=∑b∈A​exp(−ηb⊤zt​)pt​(b)exp(−ηa⊤zt​)pt​(a)​.

In the Lean development IsBinaryActionSet A m is the action-set condition, exp2Weights A η z t is pt+1p_{t+1}pt+1​, and exp2Regret A η z n is RnR_nRn​ against a fixed loss sequence zzz. thmOneSet d, adv1 d and adv2 d ε are the action set and the two adversaries of the paper's proof.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 6)

For n≥dn\ge dn≥d with ddd a multiple of 444, there is an action set A⊆{0,1}d\mathcal A\subseteq\{0,1\}^dA⊆{0,1}d with constant ∥a∥1\|a\|_1∥a∥1​ such that for every η≥0\eta\ge0η≥0 some adversary with losses in [0,1]d[0,1]^d[0,1]d makes EXP2 pay

Rn ≥ 0.01 d3/2n.R_n\ \ge\ 0.01\,d^{3/2}\sqrt n .Rn​ ≥ 0.01d3/2n​.

The action set is chosen before the learning rate, and the adversary after it.

Milestones (App. A and App. C)

  1. Lemma 3 (p. 19): for k≥1k\ge1k≥1 and 1≤c≤21\le c\le 21≤c≤2,
∑i=0k(1−i/k)(ki)2ci∑i=0k(ki)2ci ≥ 13.\frac{\sum_{i=0}^k(1-i/k)\binom ki^2c^i}{\sum_{i=0}^k\binom ki^2c^i}\ \ge\ \frac13 .∑i=0k​(ik​)2ci∑i=0k​(1−i/k)(ik​)2ci​ ≥ 31​.
  1. First adversary (p. 15): on the action set of App. A, against the alternating adversary, Rn=nd16tanh⁡ηd8R_n=\frac{nd}{16}\tanh\frac{\eta d}{8}Rn​=16nd​tanh8ηd​ for nnn even.
  2. Second adversary (p. 16): against the constant adversary with ε=min⁡(log⁡2/(ηn),1)\varepsilon=\min(\log2/(\eta n),1)ε=min(log2/(ηn),1), Rn≥min⁡(dlog⁡212η,nd12)R_n\ge\min\bigl(\frac{d\log2}{12\eta},\frac{nd}{12}\bigr)Rn​≥min(12ηdlog2​,12nd​) for η>0\eta>0η>0.
  3. Optimization over η\etaη (pp. 14–15): for every η>0\eta>0η>0,
max⁡(nd16tanh⁡ηd8, min⁡(dlog⁡212η,nd12)) ≥ min⁡(0.04 nd, 0.01 d3/2n).\max\Bigl(\tfrac{nd}{16}\tanh\tfrac{\eta d}{8},\ \min\bigl(\tfrac{d\log2}{12\eta},\tfrac{nd}{12}\bigr)\Bigr)\ \ge\ \min\bigl(0.04\,nd,\ 0.01\,d^{3/2}\sqrt n\bigr).max(16nd​tanh8ηd​, min(12ηdlog2​,12nd​)) ≥ min(0.04nd, 0.01d3/2n​).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 shows that the gap between EXP2 and mirror descent with the negative entropy is not an artefact of the analysis: on an action set with m=d/2m=d/2m=d/2, where the optimal rate is of order dnd\sqrt ndn​, no learning rate brings EXP2 below 0.01 d3/2n0.01\,d^{3/2}\sqrt n0.01d3/2n​. Exponential weights over the actions are therefore provably suboptimal in online combinatorial optimization, which motivates working with the convex hull of A\mathcal AA (mirror descent) rather than with the actions themselves. The construction is also a template for algorithm-specific lower bounds: two adversaries, one punishing large and one punishing small learning rates.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (App. A, with Lemma 3 in App. C); to our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. A formalization yields a checked algorithm-specific lower bound for exponential weights, an exact closed-form regret computation for EXP2 on a structured action set, and a rigorous proof of Lemma 3, whose printed proof checks k≤106k\le10^6k≤106 numerically before an asymptotic argument with Stirling's formula.

Difficulty

The statements are elementary, but each step hides a real computation. The first adversary requires the exact distribution of EXP2 on a set of 2(d/2d/4)2\binom{d/2}{d/4}2(d/4d/2​) actions over alternating rounds, and a regret identity rather than a bound. The second requires controlling EXP2's expected loss over all nnn rounds against a constant adversary on the same exponentially large set. Lemma 3 is the hardest piece: at c=2c=2c=2 it is tight at k=1k=1k=1, while the ratio tends to 1−2/(1+2)≈0.4141-\sqrt2/(1+\sqrt2)\approx0.4141−2​/(1+2​)≈0.414 as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞; the printed proof verifies k≤106k\le10^6k≤106 numerically, so a formal proof needs an argument valid for every kkk. A naive attempt to prove the goal with a single adversary fails: one adversary only defeats either large or small learning rates.

Formalization scope

  • Actions are real vectors Fin d → ℝ with entries in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}, so a⊤za^\top za⊤z is the dot product. Coordinates and rounds are 0-based: the paper's odd rounds are the even indices.
  • EXP2 is defined by the recursion of Figure 2 with z~t=zt\tilde z_t=z_tz~t​=zt​, starting uniform on A\mathcal AA; its closed form pt(a)∝exp⁡(−η∑s<ta⊤zs)p_t(a)\propto\exp(-\eta\sum_{s<t}a^\top z_s)pt​(a)∝exp(−η∑s<t​a⊤zs​) is a consequence, not the definition.
  • The regret is defined against a deterministic, oblivious loss sequence, for which the expectation is a finite sum. Exhibiting such an adversary proves the paper's sup⁡adversary\sup_{\text{adversary}}supadversary​, since it is a special case of the paper's adaptive adversaries.
  • The minimum over A\mathcal AA is a Finset.inf'; every statement requires A\mathcal AA nonempty, so no junk value enters.
  • Added hypotheses: 4∣d4\mid d4∣d in the goal (the proof's own simplifying assumption; the printed statement fails at d=1d=1d=1, where any constant-norm A\mathcal AA is a singleton); η>0\eta>0η>0 and n≥1n\ge1n≥1 wherever 1/η1/\eta1/η or 1/(ηn)1/(\eta n)1/(ηn) appears. The goal does not assume nnn even, although App. A does; the second-adversary milestone does not need it either.
  • The action set of App. A is printed with "or"; it is formalized with exactly one of the two intervals filled, as the prose and the constant norm ∥a∥1=d/2\|a\|_1=d/2∥a∥1​=d/2 require.
  • Ruled out: an existential over η\etaη, an adversary chosen before η\etaη, an action set depending on η\etaη, unbounded losses, and an empty action set with a junk minimum would each make the goal trivial or different; the statement quantifies as above.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of Lemma 3 by any method, and reusable lemmas on exponential weights (normalization, closed form, monotonicity of weights along a constant adversary). The paper's proofs are in its App. A and App. C.

Selected references

  • J.-Y. Audibert, S. Bubeck, G. Lugosi, Regret in Online Combinatorial Optimization, Math. Oper. Res. 39(1), 2014; arXiv:1204.4710v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4710
  • W. M. Koolen, M. K. Warmuth, J. Kivinen, Hedging Structured Concepts, Proceedings of COLT 2010 (reference [26] of the paper above).
  • Y. Freund, R. E. Schapire, A Decision-Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 55(1), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcss.1997.1504
  • S. Bubeck, N. Cesa-Bianchi, Regret Analysis of Stochastic and Nonstochastic Multi-armed Bandit Problems, Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 5(1), 2012; arXiv:1204.5721. https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.5721
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OptimizationProbability·Captain: visuddhi

Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control: BoundsResearch Paper

Motivation

An inventory policy specifies how much stock to hold before demand arrives. Its financial value is the expected sum of holding and shortage costs. Learning a useful policy and estimating its value are different statistical tasks. This proposal starts the formalization of the principal bounds in Qin, Simchi-Levi and Zhu, Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control, using the September 29, 2026 arXiv version as a fixed source.

Setting

There are TTT periods, independent bounded demands, positive holding and shortage costs, zero ordering costs, zero lead time, and zero terminal salvage. An action yyy must satisfy y≥max⁡(x,0)y\ge\max(x,0)y≥max(x,0). The one-period cost is h(y−d)++p(d−y)+h(y-d)^++p(d-y)^+h(y−d)++p(d−y)+. Backlog has next state y−dy-dy−d; lost sales has next state (y−d)+(y-d)^+(y−d)+ and observes only min⁡(d,y)\min(d,y)min(d,y). An error tolerance always refers to total expected cost, not average cost per period. A scalar observation is counted once even if an algorithm reuses it in several periods.

The first fully specified statistical target is the stationary valuation lower bound. Holding and shortage costs are both one, the initial inventory is one, and IID demands equal zero with probability ρ\rhoρ and one otherwise. The optimal value is defined by the actual finite-horizon Bellman infimum over feasible real actions. It is not defined to equal the formula being proved. An arbitrary randomized estimator is a Markov kernel from the finite binary archive to the real line; the same kernel is used under both laws. This includes deterministic estimators as point-mass kernels.

Formalization targets

The first target is Theorem 3.7, including its confidence dependence. Put ρ±=1−1/(2T)±128ϵ/T2\rho_\pm=1-1/(2T)\pm128\epsilon/T^2ρ±​=1−1/(2T)±128ϵ/T2. For T≥8T\ge8T≥8, 0<ϵ≤T/10240<\epsilon\le T/10240<ϵ≤T/1024, and 0<η<1/20<\eta<1/20<η<1/2, simultaneous ϵ\epsilonϵ-accuracy on the two instances with probability at least 1−η1-\eta1−η requires

M≥T3360448ϵ2(1−2η)log⁡1−ηη.M\ge\frac{T^3}{360448\epsilon^2}(1-2\eta)\log\frac{1-\eta}{\eta}.M≥360448ϵ2T3​(1−2η)logη1−η​.

Its milestones establish zero-base-stock optimality, the exact value polynomial, its derivative and quadratic sensitivity, value separation, the KL bound, and the testing reduction. The derivative has a complete local Lean proof; the other statistical proof obligations remain open. The numerical constant is retained to match the source exactly.

The complete requested program also retains the adaptive full-observation policy lower bound (Theorem 3.1), the censored lower bound and integer-count correction (Theorem 3.3 and Proposition 3.5), the stationary policy upper bound (Proposition 4.5 and Corollary 4.7), the Product ERM benchmark, and the censored upper and matching minimax rate (Section 5.4). Their full statistical encodings have not yet been added to this initial draft. They must not be inferred from the first target or from the elementary supporting lemmas. The local source map records their assumptions and dependencies.

Significance

The valuation family has a common known optimal policy, yet estimating its cost requires a cubic number of scalar observations in the horizon at fixed accuracy and confidence. This gives a concrete distinction between identifying an action and measuring its consequences. The first target preserves both the inherited-stock condition and the full confidence factor; replacing inherited stock by an empty start would change the claim.

Five additional supporting statements isolate qualified recensoring, one-period truncation, cap closure, ERM regret transfer, and optimal-value stability. They are shared by later bounds. These five results and the value-polynomial derivative have passed local Lean checking in the pinned environment; their axiom audits show only propext, Classical.choice, and Quot.sound, with no sorryAx. This is local evidence, not server verification. A correct proof of the one-period truncation identity alone does not establish dynamic optimality, statistical coverage, or a minimax rate. Likewise a deterministic ERM inequality does not prove uniform convergence.

Difficulty

The information lower bounds quantify over data-dependent randomized procedures. Encoding only a fixed allocation or a deterministic output would lose part of the intended theorem. The full policy lower bound additionally permits adaptive sampling and randomized deployment, so it needs a different transcript model from the IID stationary valuation module. Censored upper bounds require conditional independence given the entire boundary array; ordinary predictability is insufficient. The 1/r1/r1/r factor counts all prescribed logs, including discarded observations.

Upper bounds depend on the horizon-normalized convergence result from Xie, Ma and Xin, now included in the companion draft VC Theory for Inventory Policies: Xie–Ma–Xin Bounds. The source cited here as Corollary 4 is Corollary 4.10 in that paper's v3; Theorem 4.9 is its inventory fat-shattering ingredient. The companion also retains stationary and (s,S) upper and lower bound families and Product ERM. Its Lemma 4.12 cyclic partition has a complete local Lean proof. Statistical convergence, two-sided and periodwise-cost extensions, high-probability product transfer, and the censoring reductions remain open proof obligations. Neither this draft nor its companion assumes those results have already been formally proved.

Formalization scope

The environment is Lean 4.33.1 with Mathlib revision 0df444a360eaa60ab8c11dca51a86af692955474. Draft theorem statements contain sorry because they are proof targets. Definition files contain no unproved assertions. Locally checked solution files must be distinguished from platform-verified proofs; a draft upload performs no server verification. Independent read-backs accompany the items so their quantifiers, domains, and total-function conventions can be reviewed directly.

The Bellman definition uses real infima. Proving nonemptiness and lower boundedness of the feasible objective set belongs to its optimality proof. Probability interpretations of finite sample weights apply only when ρ∈[0,1]\rho\in[0,1]ρ∈[0,1]; the hard-instance parameter bounds enforce an interior interval. The zero-sample case remains available to the testing theorem. No hypothesis assumes the desired lower bound, optimal-value formula, or derivative bound.

This is an editable initial draft, with the stationary valuation module and common algebraic foundations. It is not a certificate that all bounds in the paper have been formally proved, nor a launch-ready encoding of the complete bounds program.

Selected references

  • Hanzhang Qin, David Simchi-Levi and Ruihao Zhu, Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control: Learning, Valuation, and Censoring, arXiv:2609.37380v1, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37380v1
  • Yaqi Xie, Will Ma and Linwei Xin, VC Theory for Inventory Policies, arXiv:2404.11509v3, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11509v3
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming 1: The Randomized Stochastic Gradient Method Has (1/L)E‖∇f(x_R)‖² ≤ (D_f² + σ²Σγ_k²)/Σ(2γ_k − Lγ_k²)Research Paper

Motivation

Stochastic gradient methods are the standard tool for minimizing an objective that can only be accessed through noisy gradient samples. Training a machine-learning model on sampled data, simulation-based optimization, and stochastic programs with endogenous uncertainty are all of this kind. In many of these applications the objective is nonconvex: the loss or the regularizer of a learning problem may be nonconvex, as may the expected cost of a simulation model.

Before 2013 the complexity theory of stochastic approximation (SA) was essentially a convex theory. Robbins and Monro (1951) introduced the method. Polyak and Juditsky (1992) and Nemirovski, Juditsky, Lan and Shapiro (2009) established optimal rates for convex problems, and Lan (2012) unified the smooth, nonsmooth and stochastic convex cases. None of these results covered nonconvex objectives. Ghadimi and Lan (2013) gave the first non-asymptotic complexity bound for a stochastic gradient method on a smooth nonconvex problem. The bound is stated for the expected squared gradient norm at a randomly chosen iterate, and it is the result this mission formalizes.

Setting

The problem is

f∗=inf⁡x∈Rnf(x),f^*=\inf_{x\in\mathbb R^n} f(x),f∗=x∈Rninf​f(x),

where f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R is differentiable and bounded below, and its gradient is LLL-Lipschitz: ∥∇f(y)−∇f(x)∥≤L∥y−x∥\|\nabla f(y)-\nabla f(x)\|\le L\|y-x\|∥∇f(y)−∇f(x)∥≤L∥y−x∥ for all x,yx,yx,y. This class is written CL1,1(Rn)\mathcal C^{1,1}_L(\mathbb R^n)CL1,1​(Rn). The function need not be convex.

The gradient is accessible only through a stochastic first-order oracle: at the kkk-th query point xkx_kxk​ it returns G(xk,ξk)G(x_k,\xi_k)G(xk​,ξk​), where ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1,\xi_2,\dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… are random variables and GGG is a Borel function. Assumption A1 asks that for every k≥1k\ge1k≥1, conditionally on the past, G(xk,ξk)G(x_k,\xi_k)G(xk​,ξk​) is an unbiased estimate of ∇f(xk)\nabla f(x_k)∇f(xk​), and that its error δk=G(xk,ξk)−∇f(xk)\delta_k=G(x_k,\xi_k)-\nabla f(x_k)δk​=G(xk​,ξk​)−∇f(xk​) has second moment E∥δk∥2≤σ2\mathbb E\|\delta_k\|^2\le\sigma^2E∥δk​∥2≤σ2. The noise variables need not be independent of each other or of the iterates.

The randomized stochastic gradient (RSG) method takes an initial point x1x_1x1​, an iteration limit NNN, stepsizes γk\gamma_kγk​ and a probability mass function PRP_RPR​ on {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}. It draws a random index R∼PRR\sim P_RR∼PR​, runs

xk+1=xk−γk G(xk,ξk),k=1,…,R,x_{k+1}=x_k-\gamma_k\,G(x_k,\xi_k),\qquad k=1,\dots,R,xk+1​=xk​−γk​G(xk​,ξk​),k=1,…,R,

and outputs xRx_RxR​. The mass function used in the main theorem is

PR(k)=2γk−Lγk2∑j=1N(2γj−Lγj2),k=1,…,N.P_R(k)=\frac{2\gamma_k-L\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{j=1}^N(2\gamma_j-L\gamma_j^2)},\qquad k=1,\dots,N.PR​(k)=∑j=1N​(2γj​−Lγj2​)2γk​−Lγk2​​,k=1,…,N.

The constants are Df=[2(f(x1)−f∗)/L]1/2D_f=[2(f(x_1)-f^*)/L]^{1/2}Df​=[2(f(x1​)−f∗)/L]1/2 and, in the convex case with minimizer x∗x^*x∗, DX=∥x1−x∗∥D_X=\|x_1-x^*\|DX​=∥x1​−x∗∥.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 a)

If 0<γk<2/L0<\gamma_k<2/L0<γk​<2/L for k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N, N≥1N\ge1N≥1, and RRR has the mass function above, then under Assumption A1

1L E[∥∇f(xR)∥2]≤Df2+σ2∑k=1Nγk2∑k=1N(2γk−Lγk2),\frac1L\,\mathbb E\big[\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2\big]\le\frac{D_f^2+\sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N\gamma_k^2}{\sum_{k=1}^N(2\gamma_k-L\gamma_k^2)},L1​E[∥∇f(xR​)∥2]≤∑k=1N​(2γk​−Lγk2​)Df2​+σ2∑k=1N​γk2​​,

where the expectation is over RRR and the noise. Any stepsize sequence below 2/L2/L2/L is allowed, so the goal does not fix a step rule, and the step rules of the paper's corollaries follow from it.

Milestones

  1. The quadratic bound (1.6): ∣f(y)−f(x)−⟨∇f(x),y−x⟩∣≤L2∥y−x∥2|f(y)-f(x)-\langle\nabla f(x),y-x\rangle|\le\frac L2\|y-x\|^2∣f(y)−f(x)−⟨∇f(x),y−x⟩∣≤2L​∥y−x∥2 (already proved on the platform).
  2. The one-step inequality (2.8) and its pathwise sum (2.9).
  3. The conditional mean-zero property (2.10), E[⟨∇f(xk),δk⟩∣ξ[k−1]]=0\mathbb E[\langle\nabla f(x_k),\delta_k\rangle\mid\xi_{[k-1]}]=0E[⟨∇f(xk​),δk​⟩∣ξ[k−1]​]=0.
  4. The averaged bound (2.11), ∑k(γk−L2γk2) E∥∇f(xk)∥2≤f(x1)−f∗+Lσ22∑kγk2\sum_k(\gamma_k-\frac L2\gamma_k^2)\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2\le f(x_1)-f^*+\frac{L\sigma^2}{2}\sum_k\gamma_k^2∑k​(γk​−2L​γk2​)E∥∇f(xk​)∥2≤f(x1​)−f∗+2Lσ2​∑k​γk2​.
  5. The weighting identity: E∥∇f(xR)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2E∥∇f(xR​)∥2 equals the PRP_RPR​-weighted average of E∥∇f(xk)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2E∥∇f(xk​)∥2.
  6. For the convex companion: co-coercivity (1.8) (already proved on the platform) and its consequence (2.12), 1L∥∇f(y)∥2≤⟨∇f(y),y−x∗⟩\frac1L\|\nabla f(y)\|^2\le\langle\nabla f(y),y-x^*\rangleL1​∥∇f(y)∥2≤⟨∇f(y),y−x∗⟩ when ∇f(x∗)=0\nabla f(x^*)=0∇f(x∗)=0.

Companion statements

Theorem 2.1 b) bounds E[f(xR)−f∗]\mathbb E[f(x_R)-f^*]E[f(xR​)−f∗] by (DX2+σ2∑γk2)/∑(2γk−Lγk2)(D_X^2+\sigma^2\sum\gamma_k^2)/\sum(2\gamma_k-L\gamma_k^2)(DX2​+σ2∑γk2​)/∑(2γk​−Lγk2​) when fff is convex with a minimizer. Corollary 2.2 specializes both bounds to the stepsizes γk=min⁡{1/L,D~/(σN)}\gamma_k=\min\{1/L,\tilde D/(\sigma\sqrt N)\}γk​=min{1/L,D~/(σN​)}:

1L E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤LDf2N+(D~+Df2D~)σN,\frac1L\,\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2\le\frac{LD_f^2}{N}+\Big(\tilde D+\frac{D_f^2}{\tilde D}\Big)\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt N},L1​E∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤NLDf2​​+(D~+D~Df2​​)N​σ​,

and the analogous bound with DXD_XDX​ for E[f(xR)−f∗]\mathbb E[f(x_R)-f^*]E[f(xR​)−f∗] in the convex case.

Significance

Theorem 2.1 a) is the basic guarantee for stochastic gradient descent on smooth nonconvex objectives. With the stepsizes of Corollary 2.2 it shows that O(σ2/ϵ2)O(\sigma^2/\epsilon^2)O(σ2/ϵ2) oracle calls suffice to reach E∥∇f(xR)∥2≤ϵ\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2\le\epsilonE∥∇f(xR​)∥2≤ϵ. The paper builds two further methods on it: a two-phase variant with large-deviation guarantees, and a zeroth-order variant (RSGF) that uses Gaussian smoothing when only function values are available. Later analyses of variance-reduced and adaptive stochastic methods for nonconvex problems measure their improvements against this bound.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of it is known. A formalized fixed-step bound of the form "some iterate among the first KKK has small expected squared gradient" exists, but it is a different statement: it has no randomized output and no general stepsizes. A complete formalization would check the measure-theoretic content that the paper treats informally: integrability of the iterates' gradients, the conditional-expectation step under dependent noise, and the role of the independence of RRR.

Difficulty

The algebra of (2.8)–(2.9) is routine. The difficulty is in the probability. The noise may depend on the past, so the cross term ⟨∇f(xk),δk⟩\langle\nabla f(x_k),\delta_k\rangle⟨∇f(xk​),δk​⟩ vanishes only in conditional expectation, and only once xkx_kxk​ is known to be measurable with respect to the past. Its integrability is not assumed anywhere: ∇f(xk)\nabla f(x_k)∇f(xk​) must be shown to have a finite second moment from the recursion, the Lipschitz gradient and Assumption A1. The randomized output adds a second step, where E∥∇f(xR)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_R)\|^2E∥∇f(xR​)∥2 is rewritten as a weighted average. This needs RRR independent of the noise, and ∥∇f(xk)∥2\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2∥∇f(xk​)∥2 has to be exhibited as a measurable function of the noise sequence. A proof that replaces xRx_RxR​ by the deterministic weighted average skips exactly this step.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). f∈CL1,1f\in\mathcal C^{1,1}_Lf∈CL1,1​ is the published predicate ConvexOptAlg.SmoothGD.IsBetaSmooth f g L, with the gradient given as a map ggg. f∗f^*f∗ is the greatest lower bound of the range of fff, not an arbitrary lower bound.
  • Indices are 1-based. The iterates satisfy x1x_1x1​ given and xk+1=xk−γkG(xk,ξk)x_{k+1}=x_k-\gamma_kG(x_k,\xi_k)xk+1​=xk​−γk​G(xk​,ξk​) for k≥1k\ge1k≥1, pointwise on the sample space. The noise takes values in a general measurable space.
  • Assumption A1 is stated along the trajectory and in conditional form, with respect to any filtration to which the noise is adapted. The paper's history filtration σ(ξ1,…,ξk)\sigma(\xi_1,\dots,\xi_k)σ(ξ1​,…,ξk​) is one admissible choice. Every conditional expectation and every integral in a hypothesis comes with an integrability clause. Every bounded expectation in a conclusion comes with an integrability conjunct.
  • The output index RRR is a measurable random variable with values in {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N} and law PRP_RPR​. It is assumed independent of the whole noise sequence; the paper leaves this implicit (Step 0 draws RRR before any oracle call).
  • Added hypotheses, all implicit on the page: L>0L>0L>0; γk>0\gamma_k>0γk​>0; independence of RRR. In Corollary 2.2 the stepsize (2.13) is read as γk=1/L\gamma_k=1/Lγk​=1/L when σ=0\sigma=0σ=0, the paper's convention D~/0=+∞\tilde D/0=+\inftyD~/0=+∞, because Lean's D~/0=0\tilde D/0=0D~/0=0 would otherwise give γk=0\gamma_k=0γk​=0.
  • The goal concerns the integral of ∥∇f(xR(ω)(ω))∥2\|\nabla f(x_{R(\omega)}(\omega))\|^2∥∇f(xR(ω)​(ω))∥2 over the sample space. A statement about the weighted sum of E∥∇f(xk)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla f(x_k)\|^2E∥∇f(xk​)∥2 with RRR removed, or one that drops the integrability conjunct, would trivialize the randomized output and does not formalize the goal.
  • Infrastructure: measurability of the iterates as functions of the noise, the pull-out property of conditional expectation for inner products, and a second-moment induction along the recursion. These are reusable for the paper's two-phase and zeroth-order methods and for other stochastic-approximation analyses. Proofs of any milestone, or of the integrability lemmas on their own, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Ghadimi and G. Lan, Stochastic first- and zeroth-order methods for nonconvex stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 23(4), 2341–2368, 2013. Preprint arXiv:1309.5549v1 (cited version). https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5549
  • H. Robbins and S. Monro, A stochastic approximation method, Ann. Math. Statist. 22(3), 400–407, 1951. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
  • B. T. Polyak and A. B. Juditsky, Acceleration of stochastic approximation by averaging, SIAM J. Control Optim. 30(4), 838–855, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1137/0330046
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan and A. Shapiro, Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 19(4), 1574–1609, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/070704277
  • G. Lan, An optimal method for stochastic composite optimization, Math. Program. 133, 365–397, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0434-y
  • Y. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization: A Basic Course, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
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Prophet Inequalities Made Easy: Stochastic Optimization by Pricing Nonstochastic Inputs I: Expected (α, β)-Balanced Prices Scaled by α/(1 + αβ) Earn 1/(1 + αβ) of the Expected Welfare of ALGResearch Paper

Motivation

A prophet inequality compares an online decision maker, who sees random values one at a time and must decide irrevocably, with a "prophet" who sees all values in advance. The classic result of Krengel, Sucheston and Garling (1977) and Samuel-Cahn (1984) says that for a single item and independent values a single threshold earns at least half of the expected maximum. In mechanism design the same inequalities describe posted-price mechanisms: a seller approaches buyers in sequence and offers each a menu of prices; each buyer takes the outcome it likes best. Such mechanisms are truthful, simple and online, so a prophet inequality for a feasibility constraint is a welfare guarantee for a practical selling procedure.

Before this paper, prophet inequalities were proved one constraint at a time (matroids, matroid intersections, polymatroids, unit-demand and combinatorial auctions), each with its own probabilistic argument. Dütting, Feldman, Kesselheim and Lucier (SIAM J. Comput. 49(3), 2020; conference version FOCS 2017) showed that a single extension theorem reduces all of them to a deterministic question about full-information instances.

Setting

There are nnn agents N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. Agent iii has an outcome space XiX_iXi​ containing a null outcome ∅\varnothing∅. An outcome profile is x=(x1,…,xn)\mathbf x=(x_1,\dots,x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​); x[i−1]\mathbf x_{[i-1]}x[i−1]​ is x\mathbf xx with the outcomes of agents i,…,ni,\dots,ni,…,n replaced by ∅\varnothing∅. The feasible profiles form a downward-closed set F\mathcal FF: removing outcomes keeps a profile feasible.

Agent iii's valuation vi:Xi→[0,1]v_i:X_i\to[0,1]vi​:Xi​→[0,1] is drawn independently from a known distribution Di\mathcal D_iDi​; D=∏iDi\mathcal D=\prod_i\mathcal D_iD=∏i​Di​. The welfare of x\mathbf xx is v(x)=∑ivi(xi)\mathbf v(\mathbf x)=\sum_iv_i(x_i)v(x)=∑i​vi​(xi​), and v(OPT(v,S))\mathbf v(\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v,S))v(OPT(v,S)) is the largest welfare over a set SSS of profiles. An outcome rule ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG maps each valuation profile to a feasible profile.

A pricing rule assigns a price pi(xi∣y)∈[0,∞]p_i(x_i\mid\mathbf y)\in[0,\infty]pi​(xi​∣y)∈[0,∞] to outcome xix_ixi​ offered to agent iii when the partial allocation is y\mathbf yy, with price ∞\infty∞ when xix_ixi​ cannot be feasibly added to y\mathbf yy. In the posted-price mechanism the agents are approached in index order; agent iii sees the prices given the allocation so far and takes an outcome maximizing its utility vi(xi)−pi(xi∣y)v_i(x_i)-p_i(x_i\mid\mathbf y)vi​(xi​)−pi​(xi​∣y).

A set H\mathcal HH of profiles is exchange compatible with x\mathbf xx if (yi,x−i)∈F(y_i,\mathbf x_{-i})\in\mathcal F(yi​,x−i​)∈F for every y∈H\mathbf y\in\mathcal Hy∈H and every iii. For a fixed valuation profile v\mathbf vv, a pricing rule pvp^{\mathbf v}pv is (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β)-balanced (Definition 3.1) with respect to ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG and an exchange-compatible family (Fx)x(\mathcal F_{\mathbf x})_{\mathbf x}(Fx​)x​ if for every x∈F\mathbf x\in\mathcal Fx∈F

(a)∑ipiv(xi∣x[i−1]) ≥ 1α(v(ALG(v))−v(OPT(v,Fx))),\text{(a)}\quad\sum_{i}p^{\mathbf v}_i(x_i\mid\mathbf x_{[i-1]})\ \ge\ \tfrac1\alpha\bigl(\mathbf v(\mathrm{ALG}(\mathbf v))-\mathbf v(\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v,\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}))\bigr),(a)i∑​piv​(xi​∣x[i−1]​) ≥ α1​(v(ALG(v))−v(OPT(v,Fx​))), (b)∑ipiv(xi′∣x[i−1]) ≤ β⋅v(OPT(v,Fx))for all x′∈Fx.\text{(b)}\quad\sum_{i}p^{\mathbf v}_i(x'_i\mid\mathbf x_{[i-1]})\ \le\ \beta\cdot\mathbf v(\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v,\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}))\quad\text{for all }\mathbf x'\in\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}.(b)i∑​piv​(xi′​∣x[i−1]​) ≤ β⋅v(OPT(v,Fx​))for all x′∈Fx​.

Property (a) says the prices paid by x\mathbf xx cover the welfare x\mathbf xx blocks; (b) says that what remains available is not overpriced.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (p. 549)

If every pv~p^{\tilde{\mathbf v}}pv~ is (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β)-balanced with respect to one exchange-compatible family, post δp\delta pδp with pi(xi∣y)=Ev~[piv~(xi∣y)]p_i(x_i\mid\mathbf y)=\mathbb E_{\tilde{\mathbf v}}[p^{\tilde{\mathbf v}}_i(x_i\mid\mathbf y)]pi​(xi​∣y)=Ev~​[piv~​(xi​∣y)] and δ=α/(1+αβ)\delta=\alpha/(1+\alpha\beta)δ=α/(1+αβ). Then the welfare x(v)\mathbf x(\mathbf v)x(v) of the mechanism satisfies

Ev[v(x(v))] ≥ 11+αβ Ev[v(ALG(v))].\mathbb E_{\mathbf v}\bigl[\mathbf v(\mathbf x(\mathbf v))\bigr]\ \ge\ \frac1{1+\alpha\beta}\,\mathbb E_{\mathbf v}\bigl[\mathbf v(\mathrm{ALG}(\mathbf v))\bigr].Ev​[v(x(v))] ≥ 1+αβ1​Ev​[v(ALG(v))].

Milestones

The steps of the paper's proof (pp. 549–550), in order: the prefix x[i−1](v)\mathbf x_{[i-1]}(\mathbf v)x[i−1]​(v) does not depend on viv_ivi​; the per-agent utility bound against a deviation drawn from an independent sample v′\mathbf v'v′; (3.1); the bound (3.2) from property (b); (3.3); the pointwise revenue bound from property (a); (3.4); and welfare = utilities + revenue. Two applications complete the list: Claim 3.3 (the single-item price max⁡ℓvℓ\max_\ell v_\ellmaxℓ​vℓ​ is (1,1)(1,1)(1,1)-balanced, which with the goal gives the classic factor 2) and the balancedness half of Theorem 4.2 for knapsack.

Significance

The theorem turns prophet inequalities into a deterministic design problem: to obtain a 1/(1+αβ)1/(1+\alpha\beta)1/(1+αβ) guarantee against any benchmark ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG, it suffices to exhibit balanced prices for each fixed valuation profile. The paper uses it to rederive the single-item factor 2, to obtain O(d)O(d)O(d) guarantees for combinatorial auctions with bundles of size ddd, a constant for knapsack, and bounds for MPH-kkk valuations, sparse packing problems and multidimensional matroids. Because ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG can be any (for example polynomial-time) algorithm, the guarantee is relative to what can be computed, not only to the optimum.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, no part of it has a machine-checked proof; the platform holds no posted-price framework of this generality. A formal proof would provide a reusable model of sequential posted-price mechanisms over arbitrary outcome spaces and a checked reduction that later formalizations of the applications can invoke instead of repeating a probabilistic argument.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fixes the realized valuations and charges each agent's purchase against the welfare it blocks. That fails because the prices are averages over a hypothetical profile v~\tilde{\mathbf v}v~, not the prices of the realized instance, and the set of outcomes still available depends on everyone's random values. The proof needs an independent copy v′\mathbf v'v′ of the valuations and the fact that the allocation before agent iii does not depend on viv_ivi​, so that viv_ivi​ and vi′v'_ivi′​ can be exchanged without changing the distribution. Formally, the run of the mechanism is a recursion over agents, the exchange is a measure-preserving swap of coordinates of a product measure, the optimal value v(OPT(v,Fx))\mathbf v(\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v,\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}))v(OPT(v,Fx​)) is a supremum that need not be attained, and the family Fx\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}Fx​ may be empty.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n, 0-based; the index order is the order of Fin n. Outcomes are (X : Fin n → Type*) with a null profile nul. Valuation types V i are countable with the discrete σ-algebra (a disclosed restriction: the paper allows any distribution); this makes every function measurable and every bounded one integrable. A type w : V i values outcomes through val i w : X i → ℝ, with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1] as on p. 547. The distribution is Measure.pi μ with every μ i a probability measure.

Prices are ℝ≥0∞-valued, ⊤ standing for ∞\infty∞; the expected price is a Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Property (a) passes its real right side through ENNReal.ofReal, and no price sum is ever converted to a real number, so an infinite price is never read as 000. v(OPT(v,S))\mathbf v(\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v,S))v(OPT(v,S)) is the real supremum sSup of the welfare over SSS, equal to 000 on S=∅S=\varnothingS=∅ as in the proof of Claim 3.3. Exchange compatibility of the family is required at every profile, not only feasible ones. The pricing-rule condition "∞\infty∞ when infeasible" is imposed at feasible partial allocations, which is where the paper defines prices.

Two standing assumptions are disclosed. First, the null outcome is free: piv~(∅∣y)=0p^{\tilde{\mathbf v}}_i(\varnothing\mid\mathbf y)=0piv~​(∅∣y)=0 for feasible y\mathbf yy. Every pricing rule of the paper satisfies it, and without it the proof's deviation does not exist when Fx(v)=∅\mathcal F_{\mathbf x(\mathbf v)}=\varnothingFx(v)​=∅. Second, the agents' behaviour is a choice rule that sees only the agent's own type and the allocation so far, assumed utility-maximizing (finite price, best utility among finitely priced outcomes) at every feasible partial allocation. The constant δ=α/(1+αβ)\delta=\alpha/(1+\alpha\beta)δ=α/(1+αβ) is written into the posted prices, not passed as a parameter.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal mentions only the run of the mechanism, the expected prices scaled by δ\deltaδ, balancedness and the two expectations. It does not assume the utility or revenue bounds, it does not let an agent's choice see other agents' types, and a supplementary check confirms that its hypotheses are jointly satisfiable. Milestones that involve the proof's deviation OPT(v′,Fx(v))\mathrm{OPT}(\mathbf v',\mathcal F_{\mathbf x(\mathbf v)})OPT(v′,Fx(v)​) are stated for an arbitrary selector from Fx\mathcal F_{\mathbf x}Fx​, a generalization that avoids assuming that the supremum is attained. Theorem 4.2 is stated as (2,1)(2,1)(2,1)-balanced, which is what its proof establishes; the printed "(1,2)(1,2)(1,2)" is false.

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: measure-preserving coordinate swaps for Measure.pi and products of product measures, ε-maximizer selection for bounded suprema, and induction principles for the sequential run. Contributions of proofs of individual milestones are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Dütting, M. Feldman, T. Kesselheim, B. Lucier, Prophet inequalities made easy: Stochastic optimization by pricing nonstochastic inputs, SIAM J. Comput. 49(3):540–582, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1323850
  • U. Krengel, L. Sucheston, Semiamarts and finite values, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 83(4):745–747, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1977-14378-4
  • E. Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Ann. Probab. 12(4):1213–1216, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993150
  • R. Kleinberg, S. M. Weinberg, Matroid prophet inequalities and applications to multi-dimensional mechanism design, Games Econom. Behav. 113:97–115, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2014.11.002
  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter mechanism design and sequential posted pricing, STOC 2010, 311–320. https://doi.org/10.1145/1806689.1806733
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Robust Sample Average Approximation 3: The Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Kuiper, Cramér–von Mises, Watson and Anderson–Darling Tests with O(N^(−1/2)) Thresholds Are Uniformly ConsistentResearch Paper

Motivation

Robust Sample Average Approximation (Robust SAA) is a data-driven approach to stochastic optimization proposed by Bertsimas, Gupta and Kallus (arXiv:1408.4445; Mathematical Programming (2018), doi:10.1007/s10107-017-1174-z). Instead of minimizing the empirical average of a cost, a decision maker minimizes the worst-case expected cost over a distributional uncertainty set: the set of distributions that a statistical goodness-of-fit (GoF) test does not reject at a chosen significance level, given the observed data. Each classical GoF test therefore produces its own robust optimization model.

Whether such a model behaves well as data accumulate depends on a property of the test. Theorem 2 of the paper shows that Robust SAA converges, in objective, optimal value and optimal solutions, for every admissible cost if and only if the underlying test is uniformly consistent. This mission concerns the univariate case: it asks for a proof that the five standard tests on the real line, those of Kolmogorov–Smirnov, Kuiper, Cramér–von Mises, Watson and Anderson–Darling, are uniformly consistent (Theorem 5, p. 14). The companion missions of the series treat the characterization (Theorem 2) and the discrete χ² and G-tests (Theorem 4).

Setting

Let FFF be a probability distribution on R\mathbb RR, and let ξ1,ξ2,…\xi^1,\xi^2,\dotsξ1,ξ2,… be independent draws from FFF. As in §3.2 of the paper, ξ\xiξ is a continuous random variable: FFF has no atoms. For a candidate distribution F0F_0F0​ write F0(t)=F0((−∞,t])F_0(t)=F_0((-\infty,t])F0​(t)=F0​((−∞,t]) for its cdf, and write ξ(1)≤⋯≤ξ(N)\xi^{(1)}\le\dots\le\xi^{(N)}ξ(1)≤⋯≤ξ(N) for the sorted sample of size NNN. With ui=F0(ξ(i))u_i=F_0(\xi^{(i)})ui​=F0​(ξ(i)), the five statistics (8) are

DN=max⁡1≤i≤Nmax⁡{iN−ui, ui−i−1N},VN=max⁡i(ui−i−1N)+max⁡i(iN−ui),WN=(112N2+1N∑i=1N(2i−12N−ui)2)1/2,UN=(WN2−(1N∑i=1Nui−12)2)1/2,\begin{aligned} D_N&=\max_{1\le i\le N}\max\Big\{\tfrac iN-u_i,\ u_i-\tfrac{i-1}N\Big\},& V_N&=\max_i\Big(u_i-\tfrac{i-1}N\Big)+\max_i\Big(\tfrac iN-u_i\Big),\\ W_N&=\Big(\tfrac1{12N^2}+\tfrac1N\sum_{i=1}^N\Big(\tfrac{2i-1}{2N}-u_i\Big)^2\Big)^{1/2},& U_N&=\Big(W_N^2-\Big(\tfrac1N\sum_{i=1}^Nu_i-\tfrac12\Big)^2\Big)^{1/2}, \end{aligned}DN​WN​​=1≤i≤Nmax​max{Ni​−ui​, ui​−Ni−1​},=(12N21​+N1​i=1∑N​(2N2i−1​−ui​)2)1/2,​VN​UN​​=imax​(ui​−Ni−1​)+imax​(Ni​−ui​),=(WN2​−(N1​i=1∑N​ui​−21​)2)1/2,​ AN=(−1−∑i=1N2i−1N2(log⁡ui+log⁡(1−uN+1−i)))1/2.A_N=\Big(-1-\sum_{i=1}^N\tfrac{2i-1}{N^2}\big(\log u_i+\log(1-u_{N+1-i})\big)\Big)^{1/2}.AN​=(−1−i=1∑N​N22i−1​(logui​+log(1−uN+1−i​)))1/2.

For a statistic SNS_NSN​ and a threshold QSN(α)Q_{S_N}(\alpha)QSN​​(α), the confidence region (7) is FSNα={F0:SN(F0;ξ1,…,ξN)≤QSN(α)}\mathcal F^\alpha_{S_N}=\{F_0: S_N(F_0;\xi^1,\dots,\xi^N)\le Q_{S_N}(\alpha)\}FSN​α​={F0​:SN​(F0​;ξ1,…,ξN)≤QSN​​(α)}: the distributions the test does not reject. A test is uniformly consistent (Definition 3, p. 13) if, for every data-generating FFF, almost surely every sequence FNF_NFN​ that does not converge weakly to FFF is rejected infinitely often, i.e. FN∉FNF_N\notin\mathcal F_NFN​∈/FN​ for infinitely many NNN. The Lévy metric between cdfs is dLeˊvy(G,G′)=inf⁡{ϵ>0:G(ξ−ϵ)−ϵ≤G′(ξ)≤G(ξ+ϵ)+ϵ ∀ξ}d_{\text{Lévy}}(G,G')=\inf\{\epsilon>0: G(\xi-\epsilon)-\epsilon\le G'(\xi)\le G(\xi+\epsilon)+\epsilon\ \forall\xi\}dLeˊvy​(G,G′)=inf{ϵ>0:G(ξ−ϵ)−ϵ≤G′(ξ)≤G(ξ+ϵ)+ϵ ∀ξ}, and F^N\hat F_NF^N​ denotes the empirical cdf.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5

For thresholds τN\tau_NτN​ with τN≤q/N\tau_N\le q/\sqrt NτN​≤q/N​ for some constant qqq and all N≥1N\ge1N≥1,

the regions {F0:SN(F0)≤τN},SN∈{DN,VN,WN,UN,AN}, are uniformly consistent.\text{the regions }\{F_0: S_N(F_0)\le\tau_N\},\quad S_N\in\{D_N,V_N,W_N,U_N,A_N\},\ \text{are uniformly consistent.}the regions {F0​:SN​(F0​)≤τN​},SN​∈{DN​,VN​,WN​,UN​,AN​}, are uniformly consistent.

The statement fixes only the rate O(N−1/2)O(N^{-1/2})O(N−1/2) of the thresholds, which is all the paper's argument uses; it holds for any sequence with that rate, in particular for the tabulated quantiles QSN(α)Q_{S_N}(\alpha)QSN​​(α).

Milestones (§10.7, pp. 38–39)

  1. dLeˊvyd_{\text{Lévy}}dLeˊvy​ metrizes weak convergence on R\mathbb RR; almost surely dLeˊvy(F^N,F)→0d_{\text{Lévy}}(\hat F_N,F)\to0dLeˊvy​(F^N​,F)→0.
  2. dLeˊvy(F^N,F0)≤DN(F0)d_{\text{Lévy}}(\hat F_N,F_0)\le D_N(F_0)dLeˊvy​(F^N​,F0​)≤DN​(F0​), and DN≤VND_N\le V_NDN​≤VN​.
  3. DN2(F0)≤max⁡{1/N+3/(2N), N WN2(F0)+2/N}D_N^2(F_0)\le\max\{1/\sqrt N+3/(2N),\ \sqrt N\,W_N^2(F_0)+2/\sqrt N\}DN2​(F0​)≤max{1/N​+3/(2N), N​WN2​(F0​)+2/N​}, and the same with WN2W_N^2WN2​ replaced by AN2A_N^2AN2​.
  4. WN2−UN2=(1N∑iF0(ξ(i))−12)2≤max⁡{… }W_N^2-U_N^2=(\tfrac1N\sum_iF_0(\xi^{(i)})-\tfrac12)^2\le\max\{\dots\}WN2​−UN2​=(N1​∑i​F0​(ξ(i))−21​)2≤max{…}, a bound in terms of DN′(F0)=max⁡i∣F0(ξ(i))−2i−12N∣D'_N(F_0)=\max_i|F_0(\xi^{(i)})-\tfrac{2i-1}{2N}|DN′​(F0​)=maxi​∣F0​(ξ(i))−2N2i−1​∣.

Significance

The result. Together with Theorem 2 of the paper, Theorem 5 guarantees that Robust SAA built on any of these five univariate tests converges for every cost that is equicontinuous in the decision and satisfies the paper's growth conditions. It also feeds Proposition 5, which extends the guarantee to multivariate problems with separable costs by testing marginals. Without it, the univariate tests would carry only the finite-sample guarantee of Proposition 1 and no asymptotic one.

The formalization. The theorem is proved in the paper, but the published argument for the Watson test has a gap. Its last step asserts that (1N∑imin⁡{1,2i−12N+DN′}−12)2=O(1/N)(\tfrac1N\sum_i\min\{1,\tfrac{2i-1}{2N}+D'_N\}-\tfrac12)^2=O(1/N)(N1​∑i​min{1,2N2i−1​+DN′​}−21​)2=O(1/N) whenever DN′≥1/N+1/ND'_N\ge1/\sqrt N+1/NDN′​≥1/N​+1/N, which fails when DN′D'_NDN′​ stays bounded away from 000 (at DN′=1/2D'_N=1/2DN′​=1/2 the expression tends to 9/649/649/64). The Watson clause is believed true, but a complete proof needs a different argument. The Anderson–Darling step relies on a cited integral representation rather than an argument on the page. A machine-checked proof would close both points. No part of the theorem is formalized elsewhere, as far as a search of the platform shows.

Difficulty

The Kolmogorov–Smirnov case reduces to deterministic inequalities once the Lévy-metric picture is in place, but each of the other statistics controls DND_NDN​ only indirectly. The Cramér–von Mises statistic is an L2L^2L2 quantity, and an L2L^2L2 bound does not by itself control a supremum. What closes the gap is monotonicity of F0F_0F0​ together with the rate of the threshold, so a threshold that merely tends to 000 is not enough. The Watson statistic is invariant under cyclic rotation of the transformed sample u1,…,uNu_1,\dots,u_Nu1​,…,uN​ on the circle [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), so a small UNU_NUN​ leaves the centring term 1N∑iF0(ξ(i))−12\tfrac1N\sum_iF_0(\xi^{(i)})-\tfrac12N1​∑i​F0​(ξ(i))−21​ uncontrolled until the boundary constraints 0≤F0≤10\le F_0\le10≤F0​≤1 are used. The obvious attempt, bounding the centring term by DN′D'_NDN′​ alone, is the step that fails on p. 39.

Formalization scope

Distributions are MeasureTheory.ProbabilityMeasure ℝ, with weak convergence as their topology. The cdf is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf. The data are the coordinates of the canonical product space ℕ → ℝ under Measure.infinitePi, so the sample of size NNN is (ω0,…,ωN−1)(\omega_0,\dots,\omega_{N-1})(ω0​,…,ωN−1​). Order statistics are the sorted sample s ∘ Tuple.sort s, and every formula of (8) is written with the paper's 1-based index (iii in Lean is the paper's i+1i+1i+1; ξ(N+1−i)\xi^{(N+1-i)}ξ(N+1−i) is Fin.rev i).

Committed conventions:

  • distributions range over all of R\mathbb RR; a support [ξ‾,ξ‾][\underline\xi,\overline\xi][ξ​,ξ​] with infinite endpoints is this case;
  • the data law has no atoms (§3.2's standing assumption, expressed by the predicate IsContinuousLaw), although the paper's proof does not use it;
  • ANA_NAN​ takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and is +∞+\infty+∞ when some F0(ξ(i))∈{0,1}F_0(\xi^{(i)})\in\{0,1\}F0​(ξ(i))∈{0,1}, so Lean's log⁡0=0\log0=0log0=0 never makes a distribution look close;
  • the threshold hypothesis is an explicit constant, τN≤q/N\tau_N\le q/\sqrt NτN​≤q/N​ for N≥1N\ge1N≥1;
  • maxima over an empty index set are 000, and every fixed-NNN milestone assumes N≥1N\ge1N≥1.

Uniform consistency is quantified over all sequences FNF_NFN​ inside the almost-sure event, as in Definition 3. A pointwise consistency statement for a fixed F0F_0F0​ is a different and weaker theorem and does not count.

A full development needs the Lévy metric and its metrization of weak convergence on R\mathbb RR, the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem in Lévy form, and elementary order-statistic inequalities. The first two are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of independent value include a corrected proof of the Watson step, and a proof of the goal without the atomless hypothesis.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, V. Gupta, N. Kallus, Robust Sample Average Approximation, arXiv:1408.4445v3 (2016); Mathematical Programming (2018). https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.4445, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-017-1174-z
  • R. M. Dudley, Real Analysis and Probability, Cambridge University Press, 2002, Theorem 11.4.1. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755347
  • R. B. D'Agostino, M. A. Stephens (eds.), Goodness-of-Fit Techniques, Marcel Dekker, New York, 1986 (reference [14] of the paper; the source of the formulas (8)).
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AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Heavy-Tail Behavior of the Distributionally Robust Newsvendor 1: Worst-Case Expected Shortage under Known First and αth Moments Equals That of a Regularly Varying Demand of Tail Index αResearch Paper

Motivation

A newsvendor chooses an order quantity before seeing demand. Unsold units have no salvage value, while demand above the order quantity cannot be filled. If the demand law is unknown but a few moments are known, the decision maker may minimize cost against the worst distribution consistent with those moments. Das, Dhara and Natarajan study this distributionally robust problem when the known moments are the first and an arbitrary real moment of order α>1\alpha>1α>1 Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019. The high-demand tail matters especially when the cost ratio favors large orders. The mission asks what tail behavior is implicitly selected by the robust objective, even though each admissible distribution has a finite α\alphaαth moment.

The two-moment case α=2\alpha=2α=2 goes back to Scarf's newsvendor bound. The paper extends the model to noninteger α\alphaα and gives lower and upper shortage bounds before proving its tail result. Its preprint is the pinned source for every statement here; the proof of each numbered result follows that result in the paper Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, §§1, 3–4.

Setting

Let q≥0q\ge0q≥0 be the order quantity and let d~≥0\tilde d\ge0d~≥0 be random demand. The expected shortage under a demand law FFF is EF[(d~−q)+]\mathbb E_F[(\tilde d-q)^+]EF​[(d~−q)+], where x+=max⁡(x,0)x^+=\max(x,0)x+=max(x,0). Fix α>1\alpha>1α>1, a positive mean m1m_1m1​, and a moment mα>m1αm_\alpha>m_1^\alphamα​>m1α​. The moment ambiguity set F1,α\mathcal F_{1,\alpha}F1,α​ contains all probability laws supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) whose first moment is m1m_1m1​ and whose finite α\alphaαth moment is mαm_\alphamα​. Its worst-case expected shortage is

Π1,α(q)=sup⁡F∈F1,αEF[(d~−q)+].\Pi_{1,\alpha}(q)=\sup_{F\in\mathcal F_{1,\alpha}}\mathbb E_F[(\tilde d-q)^+].Π1,α​(q)=F∈F1,α​sup​EF​[(d~−q)+].

For a critical ratio η∈[0,1)\eta\in[0,1)η∈[0,1), the robust newsvendor minimizes (1−η)q+Π1,α(q)(1-\eta)q+\Pi_{1,\alpha}(q)(1−η)q+Π1,α​(q) over q≥0q\ge0q≥0. This mission centers on Π1,α\Pi_{1,\alpha}Π1,α​; the optimal-order threshold is treated in the companion mission. The ambiguity set and objective are the paper's (3.1)–(3.3) Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, pp. 10–11.

A positive function uuu is regularly varying with index ρ\rhoρ if u(tx)/u(x)→tρu(tx)/u(x)\to t^\rhou(tx)/u(x)→tρ as x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞ for every t>0t>0t>0. The notation is u∈RVρu\in RV_\rhou∈RVρ​. For a probability law FFF, its survival tail is Fˉ(x)=PF(d~>x)\bar F(x)=P_F(\tilde d>x)Fˉ(x)=PF​(d~>x); Fˉ∈RV−α\bar F\in RV_{-\alpha}Fˉ∈RV−α​ means a tail parameter α\alphaα Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, §4.1, p. 26.

Formalization targets

Worst-case shortage

The first target is Theorem 4.3(a):

Π1,α∈RV−(α−1).\Pi_{1,\alpha}\in RV_{-(\alpha-1)}.Π1,α​∈RV−(α−1)​.

It covers every α>1\alpha>1α>1, including α=2\alpha=2α=2. Scarf's piecewise formula (1.3), Proposition 3.3, and both parts of Proposition 3.4 supply the paper's cited bounds. Each upper bound retains its strict quantity threshold and its printed denominator Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, pp. 3, 15, 19, 28.

One representative demand law

The full goal, Theorem 4.3, also states that a nonnegative probability law F∗F^*F∗ exists outside F1,α\mathcal F_{1,\alpha}F1,α​ with

EF∗[(d~∗−q)+]=Π1,α(q)(q≥0),Fˉ∗∈RV−α.\mathbb E_{F^*}[(\tilde d^*-q)^+]=\Pi_{1,\alpha}(q)\quad(q\ge0), \qquad \bar F^*\in RV_{-\alpha}.EF∗​[(d~∗−q)+]=Π1,α​(q)(q≥0),Fˉ∗∈RV−α​.

Every moment of F∗F^*F∗ of order 0≤a<α0\le a<\alpha0≤a<α is finite, while every moment of order a≥αa\ge\alphaa≥α is infinite. The milestone list includes the properties of Π1,α\Pi_{1,\alpha}Π1,α​ stated in §2.1 (non-increasing, convex, Π1,α(q)+q=m1\Pi_{1,\alpha}(q)+q=m_1Π1,α​(q)+q=m1​ for q≤0q\le0q≤0, Π1,α(q)→0\Pi_{1,\alpha}(q)\to0Π1,α​(q)→0), the single-law representation (2.1) and the two stated Karamata results used to characterize the tail Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, pp. 6, 27–30.

High critical ratios

A companion milestone is Proposition 4.1. For η∈(0,1)\eta\in(0,1)η∈(0,1) let qη∗q^*_\etaqη∗​ be a robust optimal order quantity and Cη∗C^*_\etaCη∗​ the optimal robust cost. Then qη∗q^*_\etaqη∗​ is optimal for the standard newsvendor with demand law F∗F^*F∗, and

qη∗∼α−1α 11−η Cη∗,η→1q^*_\eta\sim\frac{\alpha-1}{\alpha}\,\frac{1}{1-\eta}\,C^*_\eta,\qquad \eta\to1qη∗​∼αα−1​1−η1​Cη∗​,η→1

Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, p. 30, (4.9). It is a consequence of the goal, not a step toward it.

Significance

The theorem connects a decision made against an entire moment class to a single effective law. That law matches the robust expected shortage for every admissible order quantity but has an infinite α\alphaαth moment, so it does not belong to the class being optimized over. This distinction explains why large robust orders behave as though demand were heavy tailed. The paper also uses the result to relate the robust optimal order quantity to the optimal cost at high service levels in Proposition 4.1 Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, pp. 30–31.

The mathematical theorem was proved in the cited paper. This mission asks for a Lean proof of its exact statement and reusable formal results for moment-constrained probability laws, stop-loss transforms, and regular variation. No machine-checked proof of these particular statements is part of the present draft. The cited bounds and analytic results are posed as separate milestones so their hypotheses and constants remain inspectable.

Difficulty

Pointwise optimization over demand laws does not automatically give one law that attains the worst-case shortage for every qqq. For a fixed qqq, an extremal law may depend on qqq, as Scarf's formula illustrates Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, p. 3. The theorem asks for a single F∗F^*F∗ and then a precise tail index and a sharp moment cutoff. A generic upper bound on shortages would establish neither the representative law nor its infinite α\alphaαth moment. The regimes 1<α<21<\alpha<21<α<2, α=2\alpha=2α=2, and α>2\alpha>2α>2 have different cited upper-bound statements, yet the final theorem has no regime restriction.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a demand law by a Borel measure on R\mathbb RR with probability mass one and zero mass below zero. Membership in F1,α\mathcal F_{1,\alpha}F1,α​ requires both real moments to be integrable; this makes the moment equalities genuine rather than default values of a nonintegrable Bochner integral. Under m1>0m_1>0m1​>0 and mα>m1αm_\alpha>m_1^\alphamα​>m1α​, the paper's two-point law (3.6) makes the ambiguity set nonempty. Its shortage values are bounded above by m1+∣q∣m_1+|q|m1​+∣q∣, so the real supremum defining Π1,α\Pi_{1,\alpha}Π1,α​ is finite and meaningful. The strict thresholds in Propositions 3.3–3.4 keep their power denominators positive Das, Dhara and Natarajan, 2019, pp. 12, 15, 19.

Regular variation includes eventual positivity, excluding a zero-over-zero ratio from passing as a tail law. Infinite moments of F∗F^*F∗ are lower Lebesgue integrals in extended nonnegative reals. The existence of F∗F^*F∗ is asserted rather than built into a definition. Theorem 4.2(b)'s displayed limit has a negative sign in the preprint, although its nonnegative numerator and denominator require the positive value α\alphaα; the formal statement uses the corrected sign. Its regularly varying tail integral is eventually positive, which ensures genuine finite tail integrals for large lower limits. Theorem 4.1 explicitly requires local integrability. Two encodings would trivialize the goal and are excluded: defining F∗F^*F∗ inside the statement (it is existential), and a regular-variation predicate satisfied by the zero function. The properties of Π\PiΠ and the representation (2.1) are stated for F1,α\mathcal F_{1,\alpha}F1,α​, the instance the paper uses, rather than for a general finite-mean ambiguity set. In Proposition 4.1 the optimal cost is the cost at the chosen optimizer, the statement holds for every selection of optimizers, and ∼\sim∼ means that the ratio of the two sides tends to 111 as η↑1\eta\uparrow1η↑1. These analytic conventions and the probability and measure infrastructure can be reused beyond this mission. Contributions to any of the ten source milestones, including the difficult root assertion in Proposition 3.4(b), are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Das, A. Dhara, and K. Natarajan, On the Heavy-Tail Behavior of the Distributionally Robust Newsvendor, Operations Research 69(4), 2021; preprint arXiv:1806.05379v2, 2019. Preprint, DOI.
  • H. Scarf, A min-max solution of an inventory problem, in K. Arrow, S. Karlin and H. Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958, pp. 201–209.
  • A. Shapiro and A. Kleywegt, Minimax analysis of stochastic problems, Optimization Methods and Software 17, 2002, pp. 523–542. DOI.
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie and J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. DOI.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals II: For I.I.D. Variables, Adaptive Thresholds Achieve E[max Xᵢ] ≤ β*·E[X_t] with β* ≈ 1.341Research Paper

Motivation

A prophet inequality compares a gambler who sees nonnegative random rewards X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ one at a time, and must accept or reject each on arrival, with a prophet who knows all values in advance and simply takes max⁡iXi\max_i X_imaxi​Xi​. For independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) rewards the question is the best constant β\betaβ such that some online rule always earns at least E(max⁡iXi)/βE(\max_i X_i)/\betaE(maxi​Xi​)/β. The question matters in operations research and mechanism design because a seller who posts take-it-or-leave-it prices to arriving customers faces exactly this stopping problem on the customers' virtual values; prophet inequalities translate into revenue guarantees for posted price mechanisms relative to Myerson's optimal auction (Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan 2010).

Timeline (as recounted in §1 of the paper):

  • Hill and Kertz (1982) characterized, through a recursion, the smallest constants ana_nan​ with E(max⁡iXi)≤ansup⁡tE(Xt)E(\max_iX_i)\le a_n\sup_tE(X_t)E(maxi​Xi​)≤an​supt​E(Xt​) for nnn i.i.d. nonnegative variables, showed 1.1<an<1.61.1<a_n<1.61.1<an​<1.6, gave instances where ana_nan​ cannot be beaten, and conjectured that (an)(a_n)(an​) is monotone; the computation of its limit was left open.
  • Kertz (1986) proved an→β∗≈1.341a_n\to\beta^*\approx1.341an​→β∗≈1.341, the solution of the integral equation (2) below, and conjectured that β∗\beta^*β∗ bounds every ana_nan​; the best uniform bound then known was an≤e/(e−1)≈1.582a_n\le e/(e-1)\approx1.582an​≤e/(e−1)≈1.582.
  • Abolhassani et al. (2017) improved the uniform bound to 1/0.738≈1.3551/0.738\approx1.3551/0.738≈1.355.
  • Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk and Vredeveld (EC 2017; Math. Oper. Res. 2021) proved E(max⁡iXi)≤β∗E(Xt)E(\max_iX_i)\le\beta^*E(X_t)E(maxi​Xi​)≤β∗E(Xt​) for a threshold rule ttt, so an≤β∗a_n\le\beta^*an​≤β∗ for all nnn and 1/β∗≈0.7451/\beta^*\approx0.7451/β∗≈0.745 is the tight i.i.d. guarantee.

Setting

Let X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be i.i.d. nonnegative random variables with distribution function FFF. A threshold rule fixes real numbers τ1,…,τn\tau_1,\ldots,\tau_nτ1​,…,τn​ and stops at

t=min⁡{i∈{1,…,n}:Xi≥τi},t=\min\{i\in\{1,\ldots,n\}: X_i\ge\tau_i\},t=min{i∈{1,…,n}:Xi​≥τi​},

receiving XtX_tXt​. Because the thresholds may change with the step iii, the rule is adaptive; for i.i.d. variables the number of variables already seen is all the history the rule needs.

The analysis works with quantiles. The generalized inverse is F−1(q)=inf⁡{x≥0:F(x)≥q}F^{-1}(q)=\inf\{x\ge0: F(x)\ge q\}F−1(q)=inf{x≥0:F(x)≥q}, and τ(q)=F−1(1−q)\tau(q)=F^{-1}(1-q)τ(q)=F−1(1−q) is the threshold that accepts with probability qqq (with a coin toss to break ties at an atom). The function

R(q)=∫0qF−1(1−θ) dθR(q)=\int_0^qF^{-1}(1-\theta)\,d\thetaR(q)=∫0q​F−1(1−θ)dθ

is the expected reward from a variable accepted with probability qqq. The quantile stopping rule of Algorithm 2 partitions [0,1][0,1][0,1] into intervals Ai=[εi−1,εi]A_i=[\varepsilon_{i-1},\varepsilon_i]Ai​=[εi−1​,εi​], draws an acceptance probability qi∈Aiq_i\in A_iqi​∈Ai​ with density proportional to ψ(q)=(n−1)(1−q)n−2\psi(q)=(n-1)(1-q)^{n-2}ψ(q)=(n−1)(1−q)n−2, and stops at step iii with probability qiq_iqi​; its value is E(Xr)E(X_r)E(Xr​). The analysis then passes through the normalizations γi=∫Aiψ\gamma_i=\int_{A_i}\psiγi​=∫Ai​​ψ and ρi\rho_iρi​, the recursion (8)–(9) on xi=1−εix_i=1-\varepsilon_ixi​=1−εi​, and the differential equation

y′(t)=y(t)(ln⁡y(t)−1)−(β−1),y(0)=1.(ODE)y'(t)=y(t)\big(\ln y(t)-1\big)-(\beta-1),\qquad y(0)=1.\qquad\text{(ODE)}y′(t)=y(t)(lny(t)−1)−(β−1),y(0)=1.(ODE)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Let β∗>1\beta^*>1β∗>1 be the unique solution of

∫01dyy(1−ln⁡y)+(β−1)=1.(2)\int_0^1\frac{dy}{y(1-\ln y)+(\beta-1)}=1.\qquad(2)∫01​y(1−lny)+(β−1)dy​=1.(2)

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and every law of nonnegative i.i.d. X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ there are thresholds τ1,…,τn\tau_1,\ldots,\tau_nτ1​,…,τn​ with

E(max⁡{X1,…,Xn})≤β∗E(Xt).E(\max\{X_1,\ldots,X_n\})\le\beta^*E(X_t).E(max{X1​,…,Xn​})≤β∗E(Xt​).

Milestones

In order: the quantile sandwich P(X≥τ(q))≥q≥P(X>τ(q))P(X\ge\tau(q))\ge q\ge P(X>\tau(q))P(X≥τ(q))≥q≥P(X>τ(q)); the representation (7) E(max⁡iXi)=n∫01ψ(q)R(q) dqE(\max_iX_i)=n\int_0^1\psi(q)R(q)\,dqE(maxi​Xi​)=n∫01​ψ(q)R(q)dq; the identity "expected reward of the quantile rule at qqq equals R(q)R(q)R(q)"; Lemma 4 (E(Xr)=∑iρi∫AiψRE(X_r)=\sum_i\rho_i\int_{A_i}\psi RE(Xr​)=∑i​ρi​∫Ai​​ψR); Lemma 5 (E(max⁡iXi)=nγ1E(Xr)E(\max_iX_i)=n\gamma_1E(X_r)E(maxi​Xi​)=nγ1​E(Xr​) when all ρi\rho_iρi​ agree); the equivalence of equal ρi\rho_iρi​ with the recursion (8) and γ1=1−x1n−1\gamma_1=1-x_1^{n-1}γ1​=1−x1n−1​; the closed form (9)–(10); Lemma 6 on (ODE); Proposition D.1; Lemma 7 (xin−1<y(i/n)x_i^{n-1}<y(i/n)xin−1​<y(i/n)); uniqueness of β∗\beta^*β∗ in (2); optimality of the dynamic-programming thresholds; domination of the randomized rule by them; and n(1−x1n−1)≤β∗n(1-x_1^{n-1})\le\beta^*n(1−x1n−1​)≤β∗.

A companion statement records the numerical guarantee 1/β∗>0.7451/\beta^*>0.7451/β∗>0.745.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 gives the optimal constant of the i.i.d. prophet inequality and, through an=n(1−x1n−1)a_n=n(1-x_1^{n-1})an​=n(1−x1n−1​), shows an≤β∗a_n\le\beta^*an​≤β∗ for every nnn, which settles the problem posed by Hill and Kertz in 1982. Since an→β∗a_n\to\beta^*an​→β∗ (Kertz 1986), no rule of any kind achieves a better constant uniformly in nnn. Through the virtual-value connection it implies that, for customers with i.i.d. valuations, an adaptive posted price mechanism earns at least a 1/β∗>0.7451/\beta^*>0.7451/β∗>0.745 fraction of the optimal auction's revenue (Corollary 2 of the paper).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of any of its lemmas is known. The proof combines a measure-theoretic part (quantile functions, randomized tie-breaking at atoms, Tonelli and integration by parts), a combinatorial recursion, and real analysis of an autonomous ODE with a third-derivative Taylor argument. Formal versions of these parts are reusable: the quantile representation of E(max⁡iXi)E(\max_iX_i)E(maxi​Xi​), the expected reward of a quantile rule, and the optimality of dynamic-programming thresholds are standard tools across prophet inequalities and optimal stopping.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt, computing the optimal dynamic-programming thresholds and bounding their value against E(max⁡iXi)E(\max_iX_i)E(maxi​Xi​), does not lead to a closed-form constant: the optimal values satisfy a nonlinear recursion that depends on the whole distribution. The paper avoids it by analysing a randomized rule whose value is exactly a ψ\psiψ-weighted average of RRR, which reduces the problem to a distribution-free recursion. Two steps then carry the weight. First, randomizing correctly at atoms of FFF so that every step accepts with probability exactly qqq; without this, R(q)R(q)R(q) is not the step reward. Second, comparing the discrete recursion (9) with the continuous (ODE): the comparison needs strict convexity and y′′′>0y'''>0y′′′>0, and the latter holds only because β>1.25\beta>1.25β>1.25, a standing assumption validated at β∗\beta^*β∗ at the end. The existence of the partition with all ρi\rho_iρi​ equal (a solution of (8) with x0=1x_0=1x0​=1, xn=0x_n=0xn​=0, xi∈(0,1)x_i\in(0,1)xi​∈(0,1)) is taken from Hill and Kertz and is not proved in the paper.

Formalization scope

Lean conventions:

  • The common law is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0; the sample is the coordinate vector of SamuelCahnProphet.IID.iidLaw μ n (the published i.i.d. setting), and E(max⁡iXi)E(\max_iX_i)E(maxi​Xi​) is its Emax. Coordinates are 0-based; the partition εi\varepsilon_iεi​, γi\gamma_iγi​, ρi\rho_iρi​ and the recursion keep the paper's 1-based index.
  • All expectations of the random variables, R(q)R(q)R(q) and E(Xr)E(X_r)E(Xr​) are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; no integrability is assumed in the goal, so infinite means are covered. Only bounded deterministic integrals (γi\gamma_iγi​, ρi\rho_iρi​, (2)) are interval integrals.
  • XtX_tXt​ is 000 when no XiX_iXi​ reaches its threshold (the page leaves it undefined; 000 is the least favourable choice).
  • The quantile rule's coin at an atom is an independent uniform variable on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; acceptance probabilities are drawn independently with density ψ/γi\psi/\gamma_iψ/γi​ on AiA_iAi​.
  • β∗\beta^*β∗ enters through (2) and β∗>1\beta^*>1β∗>1, not through a choice function; uniqueness is a milestone.
  • Statements involving ψ\psiψ, γi\gamma_iγi​, ρi\rho_iρi​ or the recursion assume n≥2n\ge2n≥2 (for n=1n=1n=1, ψ≡0\psi\equiv0ψ≡0). Lemmas 6 and 7 carry §4's standing assumption β>1.25\beta>1.25β>1.25; Proposition D.1 carries β>1.25\beta>1.25β>1.25. Lemma 6 does not assert existence of a solution of (ODE) on [0,1][0,1][0,1], which fails for β>β∗\beta>\beta^*β>β∗.
  • The dynamic-programming milestones assume EX<∞E X<\inftyEX<∞ and use the optimal-stopping recurrence Vi=E[max⁡(X,Vi+1)]V_i=E[\max(X,V_{i+1})]Vi​=E[max(X,Vi+1​)]; the page prints Vi=E(X∣X≥τi)V_i=E(X\mid X\ge\tau_i)Vi​=E(X∣X≥τi​), which is a slip.
  • The page's "β∗≈1.341>1/0.745\beta^*\approx1.341>1/0.745β∗≈1.341>1/0.745" has its inequality reversed and is not formalized.

A degenerate β\betaβ cannot trivialize the goal: β\betaβ is pinned by (2) and β>1\beta>1β>1, and the goal is stated for every n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and every nonnegative law, including laws with infinite mean.

A complete development needs the quantile function of a law on R\mathbb RR, Tonelli's theorem on product measures, uniqueness for ODEs with locally Lipschitz right-hand side (ODE_solution_unique), and Taylor's theorem; the existence of the Hill–Kertz partition is a further proof obligation. Contributions to any milestone, and reusable lemmas on quantile functions and finite-horizon optimal stopping, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Correa, P. Foncea, R. Hoeksma, T. Oosterwijk, T. Vredeveld, Posted price mechanisms and optimal threshold strategies for random arrivals, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(4):1452–1478, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1105
  • T. P. Hill, R. P. Kertz, Comparisons of stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables, Annals of Probability 10(2):336–345, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993861
  • R. P. Kertz, Stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables: a complete comparison by conjugate duality, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 19(1):88–112, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-259X(86)90095-3
  • M. Abolhassani, S. Ehsani, H. Esfandiari, M. T. HajiAghayi, R. Kleinberg, B. Lucier, Beating 1−1/e for ordered prophets, Proc. 49th ACM STOC, 61–71, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3055399.3055479
  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. L. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter mechanism design and sequential posted pricing, Proc. 42nd ACM STOC, 311–320, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1145/1806689.1806733
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