Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies II: Bounds on the Optimal s and S of the n-Period Model from the One-Period CostResearch Paper
Motivation
The policy is the standard ordering rule for a single stocked item with a fixed charge per order: when the stock position falls below a reorder point , order up to a level ; otherwise order nothing. Scarf (1960) proved that when the expected one-period cost is convex, some policy is optimal in every period of a finite-horizon model with set-up cost. Iglehart (1963) extended this to the infinite horizon. These results establish existence only. They give no procedure for finding the optimal pair.
Veinott and Wagner (1965) gave such a procedure. Its first step is to bound the optimal and by four integers computed from the one-period cost alone. This reduces the search for an optimal policy to a finite box. Their Theorem 4(a) proves that the bounds hold for the first-period parameters of an optimal policy in every -period model. This mission formalizes that theorem and the four comparison lemmas (Lemmas 2–5 of the paper's Appendix §2) from which the paper derives it.
Setting
Demands in periods are independent, non-negative integer random variables with common distribution and finite mean. Unfilled demand is backlogged, so stock levels are arbitrary integers. In period , is the stock on hand plus on order before ordering and the level after ordering. Then and .
A policy chooses as any integer function of the information available at the start of period . Given , that information is determined by and . Policies may therefore depend on the whole history; they are not required to be Markov.
Costs are summarized by a set-up cost , a discount factor and a one-period cost . The paper reduces the model with purchase cost , lead time and holding–penalty cost to these data by its Eq. (2), with . The -period cost of a policy from is
where and for . A policy is optimal if it minimizes for every simultaneously. The standing assumptions are that is convex on the integers (non-decreasing forward differences) and as .
The bounds (p. 537) are defined as follows. is the smallest minimizer of . is the smallest integer with (21). is the smallest integer with (22). is the smallest integer with (23).
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 4(a)
For every there is an optimal policy for the -period model whose first-period rule satisfies
Optimality is against all history-dependent policies and for every starting level. The existence of an optimal policy is part of the conclusion.
Milestones
- The characterization of by , and the existence of the parameters of (21)–(23).
- Lemma 2: for any optimal policy using in period 1.
- Lemma 3: if , some policy using in period 1 costs no more, from every .
- Lemma 4: if (and ), some policy using in period 1 costs no more, from every .
- Lemma 5: for any optimal policy using in period 1.
Significance
The theorem turns the optimization over policies into a search over a finite box that depends only on , and . The paper's Section 4 procedure for the infinite-horizon problem (Theorem 4(b), Step i) is built on this box, and the bounds also give an interpretation of and : is the single-period optimum, and , , mark where the one-period cost exceeds that optimum by the fractions , and of the set-up cost.
The results are proved in the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof as far as is known; no discrete-state finite-horizon inventory model with set-up cost is on the platform. A formal proof would provide a reusable finite-horizon dynamic-programming model with history-dependent policies and extended-real expected costs, and a machine-checked version of the existence of optimal policies in the discrete setting, which Theorem 4(a) contains.
Difficulty
The four lemmas compare an optimal policy with an explicit modification of it. The modification in Lemmas 2 and 5 raises the stock in period 1 and then orders , where is the original policy's decision along the original demand path. This comparison policy is history-dependent even when the original policy is not, so the argument cannot be carried out inside the class of Markov or policies. Expectations must be handled over finite demand histories, and costs can be infinite for general policies.
The goal also contains the existence of an optimal policy for the -period model. The paper cites this from Scarf and Zabel rather than proving it. Applying Lemma 3 or 4 yields an optimal policy whose later periods are no longer of form. Restoring the form requires the dynamic-programming principle of optimality together with the -convexity argument.
Formalization scope
The Lean model (VeinottWagnerSS.Bounds.Model) uses the reduced model of Eq. (2): G : ℤ → ℝ is a primitive, and , and do not appear. Stock levels are integers and demands are natural numbers; the demand law is a PMF ℕ with finite mean. A policy is Y : (t : ℕ) → ℤ → (Fin t → ℕ) → ℤ: period 's level as a function of and the first demands, so it cannot see current or future demand. Periods are numbered from in Lean. Expectations are sums over demand histories weighted by . is the difference of the expectations of the positive and negative parts, and is valued in EReal. Under the standing assumptions is bounded below, so the negative part is finite and no arises. Both and are allowed.
The bounds SLow, SHigh, sLow, sHigh are infima of the sets in (21)–(23); a milestone proves they are the least elements. A trivializing formalization is ruled out as follows. Optimality is over all admissible policies and for every . The bounds are the least integers of (21)–(23). The goal requires an optimal policy, not only a bounded pair. Existence of an optimal policy is proved, not assumed.
Printed statements corrected. Lemma 4 as printed has no hypothesis on . Its proof begins "By lemma 3 we may assume that ", and without that assumption need not be an rule. The Lean statement adds . The last display of the proof of Lemma 5 reads where is meant; this affects only the proof. The milestone texts are verbatim.
Useful contributions include lemmas on convex functions on (monotonicity on either side of a minimizer), expectation lemmas for sums over Fin t → ℕ, and the finite-horizon principle of optimality for this model.
Selected references
- A. F. Veinott, Jr. and H. M. Wagner, Computing Optimal (s, S) Inventory Policies, Management Science 11(5), 525–552, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.5.525
- H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
- E. Zabel, A Note on the Optimality of (S, s) Policies in Inventory Theory, Management Science 9(1), 123–125, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.123
- D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2), 259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259