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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonlinear Proximal Point Algorithms Using Bregman Functions, with Applications to Convex Programming 5: Nonquadratic Proximal Methods of Multipliers Converge to a Saddle PointResearch Paper

Motivation

The method of multipliers (augmented Lagrangian method) solves a constrained convex program by alternating an unconstrained minimization in the primal variables with an explicit update of the Lagrange multipliers. Rockafellar showed in 1976 that the classical quadratic version is the proximal point algorithm applied to the dual problem, and that a variant which also adds a proximal term in the primal variables, the proximal method of multipliers, is the proximal point algorithm applied to the saddle operator of the Lagrangian (Rockafellar 1976, Math. Oper. Res.). The primal proximal term makes each subproblem strictly convex, so its minimizer is unique, and the theory gives convergence of the primal and dual iterates together.

Penalty functions other than the quadratic one, such as the exponential multiplier method, were used in practice and studied by Bertsekas, Kort and Tseng, but their convergence theory was separate from the proximal point framework. Eckstein's 1993 paper (Math. Oper. Res. 18(1), 202–226) replaces the squared distance in the proximal point algorithm by the D-function of a Bregman function. Its §5 obtains the first nonquadratic generalization of the proximal method of multipliers and proves that it converges to a saddle point. This mission formalizes that theorem, Theorem 8.

  • 1967: Bregman introduces D-functions for convex feasibility (Bregman 1967).
  • 1976: Rockafellar proves convergence of the quadratic method of multipliers and the proximal method of multipliers via the proximal point algorithm.
  • 1990–1992: Censor and Zenios propose the proximal minimization algorithm with D-functions.
  • 1993: Eckstein proves convergence of the Bregman proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators (Theorem 1) and derives nonquadratic multiplier methods (Theorems 6–8).

Setting

A convex program of the form (10) is

min⁡f(x)subject togi(x)≤0 (i=1,…,m), x∈C,\min f(x)\quad\text{subject to}\quad g_i(x)\le0\ (i=1,\dots,m),\ x\in C,minf(x)subject togi​(x)≤0 (i=1,…,m), x∈C,

where C⊆RnC\subseteq\mathbb R^nC⊆Rn is closed, nonempty and convex, and f,g1,…,gm:Rn→(−∞,+∞]f,g_1,\dots,g_m:\mathbb R^n\to(-\infty,+\infty]f,g1​,…,gm​:Rn→(−∞,+∞] are proper lower semicontinuous convex functions, finite on CCC. Write g(x)=(g1(x),…,gm(x))g(x)=(g_1(x),\dots,g_m(x))g(x)=(g1​(x),…,gm​(x)) and Ω+‾={p∈Rm:p≥0}\overline{\Omega^+}=\{p\in\mathbb R^m:p\ge0\}Ω+={p∈Rm:p≥0}. The Lagrangian is l(x,p)=f(x)+∑ipigi(x)l(x,p)=f(x)+\sum_ip_ig_i(x)l(x,p)=f(x)+∑i​pi​gi​(x) for x∈Cx\in Cx∈C, p≥0p\ge0p≥0; l(x,p)=−∞l(x,p)=-\inftyl(x,p)=−∞ for x∈Cx\in Cx∈C, p≱0p\not\ge0p≥0; l(x,p)=+∞l(x,p)=+\inftyl(x,p)=+∞ for x∉Cx\notin Cx∈/C. A saddle pair (x∗,p∗)(x^*,p^*)(x∗,p∗) satisfies l(x∗,p)≤l(x∗,p∗)≤l(x,p∗)l(x^*,p)\le l(x^*,p^*)\le l(x,p^*)l(x∗,p)≤l(x∗,p∗)≤l(x,p∗) for all x,px,px,p; the paper calls these optimal solution–Lagrange multiplier pairs. The saddle operator on Rn+m\mathbb R^{n+m}Rn+m is K(x,p)=∂xl(x,p)×(−∂^pl(x,p))K(x,p)=\partial_xl(x,p)\times(-\hat\partial_pl(x,p))K(x,p)=∂x​l(x,p)×(−∂^p​l(x,p)), where ∂x\partial_x∂x​ is the subdifferential of the convex function l(⋅,p)l(\cdot,p)l(⋅,p) and ∂^p\hat\partial_p∂^p​ the set of supergradients of the concave function l(x,⋅)l(x,\cdot)l(x,⋅).

For a differentiable hhh, the D-function is Dh(x,y)=h(x)−h(y)−⟨∇h(y),x−y⟩D_h(x,y)=h(x)-h(y)-\langle\nabla h(y),x-y\rangleDh​(x,y)=h(x)−h(y)−⟨∇h(y),x−y⟩. A Bregman function with open zone SSS is a function h:S‾→Rh:\overline S\to\mathbb Rh:S→R, continuously differentiable on SSS, strictly convex and continuous on S‾\overline SS, whose partial level sets of DhD_hDh​ are bounded, and which satisfies two sequential conditions relating Dh→0D_h\to0Dh​→0 to convergence (Definition 1). For h:Rm→Rh:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb Rh:Rm→R, the monotone conjugate is h∗+(z)=sup⁡p≥0{⟨p,z⟩−h(p)}h^{*+}(z)=\sup_{p\ge0}\{\langle p,z\rangle-h(p)\}h∗+(z)=supp≥0​{⟨p,z⟩−h(p)}.

Given Bregman functions hxh_xhx​ on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and hph_php​ on Rm\mathbb R^mRm and step sizes ck>0c_k>0ck​>0, the nonquadratic proximal method of multipliers (12) is

xk+1=arg⁡min⁡x∈C{f(x)+1ckhp∗+(∇hp(pk)+ckg(x))+1ckDhx(x,xk)},pk+1=∇hp∗+(∇hp(pk)+ckg(xk+1)).x^{k+1}=\arg\min_{x\in C}\Big\{f(x)+\tfrac1{c_k}h_p^{*+}\big(\nabla h_p(p^k)+c_kg(x)\big)+\tfrac1{c_k}D_{h_x}(x,x^k)\Big\},\qquad p^{k+1}=\nabla h_p^{*+}\big(\nabla h_p(p^k)+c_kg(x^{k+1})\big).xk+1=argx∈Cmin​{f(x)+ck​1​hp∗+​(∇hp​(pk)+ck​g(x))+ck​1​Dhx​​(x,xk)},pk+1=∇hp∗+​(∇hp​(pk)+ck​g(xk+1)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

Assume ckc_kck​ positive and bounded away from zero, hxh_xhx​ a Bregman function with zone Sx⊇CS_x\supseteq CSx​⊇C, hph_php​ a Bregman function with zone Sp⊇Ω+‾S_p\supseteq\overline{\Omega^+}Sp​⊇Ω+ and im⁡∇hp=Rm\operatorname{im}\nabla h_p=\mathbb R^mim∇hp​=Rm, and {(xk,pk)}\{(x^k,p^k)\}{(xk,pk)} conforming to (12). Then

∃ saddle pair ⟹ (xk,pk)→(x∗,p∗) for some saddle pair (x∗,p∗),\exists\text{ saddle pair}\ \Longrightarrow\ (x^k,p^k)\to(x^*,p^*)\ \text{for some saddle pair }(x^*,p^*),∃ saddle pair ⟹ (xk,pk)→(x∗,p∗) for some saddle pair (x∗,p∗), ∄ saddle pair ⟹ {xk} or {pk} is unbounded.\nexists\text{ saddle pair}\ \Longrightarrow\ \{x^k\}\text{ or }\{p^k\}\text{ is unbounded}.∄ saddle pair ⟹ {xk} or {pk} is unbounded.

Existence clause

For the same step-size assumption, if in addition im⁡∇hx=Rn\operatorname{im}\nabla h_x=\mathbb R^nim∇hx​=Rn, a sequence conforming to (12) exists from every (x0,p0)∈C×Ω+‾(x^0,p^0)\in C\times\overline{\Omega^+}(x0,p0)∈C×Ω+. This is the third sentence of Theorem 8, stated as a separate item.

Milestones

Lemma 2 (four descriptions of h∗+h^{*+}h∗+, monotonicity), Lemma 3 (h∗+h^{*+}h∗+ finite and differentiable), Lemma A4 (a subdifferential chain rule), (14) (the xxx-step is a Bregman proximal step on ∂xl\partial_xl∂x​l), the formula ∂^pl(x,p)={g(x)}−∂δ+(p)\hat\partial_pl(x,p)=\{g(x)\}-\partial\delta^+(p)∂^p​l(x,p)={g(x)}−∂δ+(p), maximal monotonicity of KKK, saddle pairs === zeros of KKK, hx⊕hph_x\oplus h_phx​⊕hp​ is a Bregman function with zone Sx×Sp⊇dom⁡K‾S_x\times S_p\supseteq\overline{\operatorname{dom}K}Sx​×Sp​⊇domK, the identity (13), Theorem 1 restated on Rn+m\mathbb R^{n+m}Rn+m, Theorem 4 restated, and the existence clause.

Significance

Theorem 8 gives a family of primal–dual methods for convex programs, parametrized by two Bregman functions, each with the convergence guarantee of the quadratic proximal method of multipliers: convergence of both sequences to a saddle point when one exists, and divergence otherwise. Choosing hph_php​ to match the orthant (for instance entropy-like functions) yields exponential-type multiplier updates, and choosing hxh_xhx​ to match CCC adapts the primal regularization to the feasible set. The uniqueness of the primal minimizer, which the dual method of §4.2 lacks, is what allows convergence of the primal iterates without further assumptions.

The result is proved in the paper, with some steps asserted rather than proved (that hx⊕hph_x\oplus h_phx​⊕hp​ is a Bregman function; the maximality of KKK, cited from Rockafellar). No machine-checked proof of Theorem 8, of Theorem 1, or of the monotone-conjugate lemmas is known. A formalization would check the reduction of (12) to (13) carefully, including the extended-value conventions of the Lagrangian, and would provide reusable statements about Bregman functions on product spaces and about saddle operators of convex programs.

Difficulty

The reduction of Theorem 8 to Theorem 1 is short on the page but uses several nontrivial facts. The xxx-step is a constrained minimization of a composite function; turning its optimality condition into the inclusion (14) in ∂xl(xk+1,pk+1)\partial_xl(x^{k+1},p^{k+1})∂x​l(xk+1,pk+1) needs a chain rule for a nondecreasing differentiable outer function composed with extended-valued convex functions (Lemma A4), together with properties of the monotone conjugate (Lemmas 2 and 3) that rest on recession arguments in the Appendix. The ppp-step requires identifying ∂[hp∗+]∗\partial[h_p^{*+}]^*∂[hp∗+​]∗ with ∇hp+∂δ+\nabla h_p+\partial\delta^+∇hp​+∂δ+, which uses Sp⊇Ω+‾S_p\supseteq\overline{\Omega^+}Sp​⊇Ω+. Maximal monotonicity of KKK is a theorem about closed saddle functions, not a consequence of monotonicity alone. Theorem 1 itself is the main theorem of the paper and depends on all six conditions of Definition 1.

A natural first idea, applying Theorem 1 to KKK directly with an arbitrary Bregman function on Rn+m\mathbb R^{n+m}Rn+m, does not describe (12): the method is the specific instance h=hx⊕hph=h_x\oplus h_ph=hx​⊕hp​, and the identification of its steps with (∇h+ckK)−1(\nabla h+c_kK)^{-1}(∇h+ck​K)−1 is the content of (13).

Formalization scope

  • Rk\mathbb R^kRk is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin k); Rn+m\mathbb R^{n+m}Rn+m is WithLp 2 (E n × E m), which carries the Euclidean inner product. The §2 objects (Bregman function, DhD_hDh​, runs of (3) written through the equivalent inclusion (4)) are defined over any finite-dimensional real inner product space so that Theorem 1 applies on Rn+m\mathbb R^{n+m}Rn+m.
  • Extended-real functions are EReal-valued; properness, convexity (of the epigraph) and subgradients use published definitions. hp∗+h_p^{*+}hp∗+​ is EReal-valued; the recursion (12) uses its real value and the gradient of that real function, which is exact because Lemma 3, a milestone, proves finiteness and differentiability.
  • "Optimal solution–Lagrange multiplier pair" is the saddle inequality, as identified on p. 220. "Converges to one" means both sequences converge, to the two components of one saddle pair; "unbounded" means the range is not bounded.
  • The xxx-step is a minimality predicate over CCC rather than arg⁡min⁡\arg\minargmin (equivalent; the minimizer is unique). A run requires x0∈Sxx^0\in S_xx0∈Sx​, not x0∈Cx^0\in Cx0∈C, and pk∈Spp^k\in S_ppk∈Sp​, so that every gradient in (12) is defined.
  • Corrected typos: the page's "Sp⊃Ω+‾S_p\supset\overline{\Omega^+}Sp​⊃Ω+" is read as ⊇\supseteq⊇; in Lemma A4, "Lemma 5" is Lemma 2 and "f(x)∈Rnf(x)\in\mathbb R^nf(x)∈Rn" is Rm\mathbb R^mRm; Theorem 1's "monontone" is monotone; the supergradient formula's "δ+(p)\delta^+(p)δ+(p)" denotes ∂δ+(p)\partial\delta^+(p)∂δ+(p); the existence clause's extra parenthesis is dropped. In Lemma A4 a term yi∂fi(x0)y_i\partial f_i(x^0)yi​∂fi​(x0) with yi=0y_i=0yi​=0 is {0}\{0\}{0}, following the proof.
  • The §4.2 assumption that the dual functional is not everywhere −∞-\infty−∞ is not assumed; §5 does not use it.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal's hypotheses are satisfiable (with hx=hp=12∥⋅∥2h_x=h_p=\frac12\|\cdot\|^2hx​=hp​=21​∥⋅∥2, C=RC=\mathbb RC=R, f(x)=x2f(x)=x^2f(x)=x2, g1(x)=x−1g_1(x)=x-1g1​(x)=x−1 there is a saddle pair, checked in Lean), h∗+h^{*+}h∗+ is not replaced by a real supremum with junk values, and the saddle predicate quantifies over all of Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm.
  • Infrastructure a full development needs: Bregman functions on products, the monotone conjugate and its smoothness, a subdifferential sum and chain rule for extended-valued functions, maximal monotonicity of saddle operators, and Theorem 1. The monotone conjugate lemmas and Theorem 1 are shared with the companion missions of this series. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, including proofs of the restated Theorems 1 and 4 independent of the companion missions.

Selected references

  • J. Eckstein, Nonlinear proximal point algorithms using Bregman functions, with applications to convex programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(1), 1993, 202–226. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.1.202
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Augmented Lagrangians and applications of the proximal point algorithm in convex programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2), 1976, 97–116. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.97
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
  • L. M. Bregman, The relaxation method of finding the common point of convex sets and its application to the solution of problems in convex programming, USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics 7(3), 1967, 200–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-5553(67)90040-7
  • Y. Censor and S. A. Zenios, Proximal minimization algorithm with D-functions, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 73(3), 1992, 451–464. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00940051
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Monotone Comparative Statics II: f Is Quasisupermodular If and Only If a Strictly Increasing Transformation Makes It Supermodular on Every Sublattice {x₁, x₂, x₁ ∨ x₂, x₁ ∧ x₂}Research Paper

Motivation

Monotone comparative statics asks when the optimal choice of a decision maker moves in a predictable direction as a parameter of the problem changes: when a firm facing a higher price produces more, when a monopolist facing lower costs sets a lower price, when a player in a game best-responds with a higher strategy to higher strategies of the others. The classical sufficient conditions, due to Topkis (Topkis 1978), are supermodularity of the objective in the choice variable and increasing differences in the choice and the parameter. Both are cardinal conditions: they can be destroyed by a strictly increasing change of the units in which the objective is measured, although such a change does not alter any optimal choice.

Milgrom and Shannon (Econometrica 1994) replaced these conditions by ordinal ones, quasisupermodularity and the single crossing property, and showed that the ordinal conditions are necessary and sufficient for the set of maximizers to be monotone in the parameter and the constraint set (their Theorem 4). This mission concerns the relation between the ordinal notion and the cardinal one: in which sense is a quasisupermodular function "a supermodular function up to a change of units"? Section 3 of the paper answers it with Theorem 8. An earlier notion in the same direction, supermodularizable functions, was studied by Li Calzi (1991).

Setting

Let XXX be a lattice: a partially ordered set in which every two elements x,yx, yx,y have a least upper bound x∨yx \vee yx∨y (join) and a greatest lower bound x∧yx \wedge yx∧y (meet). Examples are Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn and products of finite chains, ordered componentwise.

A function f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb{R}f:X→R is supermodular on a set S⊆XS \subseteq XS⊆X if

f(x)+f(y)≤f(x∨y)+f(x∧y)for all x,y∈S.f(x) + f(y) \le f(x \vee y) + f(x \wedge y) \qquad \text{for all } x, y \in S.f(x)+f(y)≤f(x∨y)+f(x∧y)for all x,y∈S.

It is quasisupermodular (p. 162) if for all x,y∈Xx, y \in Xx,y∈X

  1. f(x)≥f(x∧y)f(x) \ge f(x \wedge y)f(x)≥f(x∧y) implies f(x∨y)≥f(y)f(x \vee y) \ge f(y)f(x∨y)≥f(y), and
  2. f(x)>f(x∧y)f(x) > f(x \wedge y)f(x)>f(x∧y) implies f(x∨y)>f(y)f(x \vee y) > f(y)f(x∨y)>f(y).

A function h:R→Rh : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}h:R→R is strictly increasing if r<sr < sr<s implies h(r)<h(s)h(r) < h(s)h(r)<h(s). A function fff is supermodularizable if h∘fh \circ fh∘f is supermodular on XXX for some strictly increasing hhh.

For x1,x2∈Xx_1, x_2 \in Xx1​,x2​∈X the set {x1,x2,x1∨x2,x1∧x2}\{x_1, x_2, x_1 \vee x_2, x_1 \wedge x_2\}{x1​,x2​,x1​∨x2​,x1​∧x2​} is closed under ∨\vee∨ and ∧\wedge∧; it is the sublattice generated by x1x_1x1​ and x2x_2x2​ and has at most four points.

Quasisupermodularity depends only on the order of the values of fff, so it is preserved by strictly increasing transformations; supermodularity is not. Every supermodular function is quasisupermodular, and so is every supermodularizable function.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 165)

f:X→Rf : X \to \mathbb{R}f:X→R is quasisupermodular if and only if there is g:R×X×X→Rg : \mathbb{R} \times X \times X \to \mathbb{R}g:R×X×X→R such that (i) r↦g(r,x1,x2)r \mapsto g(r, x_1, x_2)r↦g(r,x1​,x2​) is strictly increasing for every (x1,x2)∈X2(x_1, x_2) \in X^2(x1​,x2​)∈X2, and (ii) for every x1,x2∈Xx_1, x_2 \in Xx1​,x2​∈X,

x↦g(f(x),x1,x2)  is supermodular on {x1,x2,x1∨x2,x1∧x2}.x \mapsto g(f(x), x_1, x_2) \ \text{ is supermodular on } \{x_1, x_2, x_1 \vee x_2, x_1 \wedge x_2\}.x↦g(f(x),x1​,x2​)  is supermodular on {x1​,x2​,x1​∨x2​,x1​∧x2​}.

Milestones

  1. Invariance (p. 164): if fff is quasisupermodular and ggg strictly increasing, g∘fg \circ fg∘f is quasisupermodular.
  2. Supermodularizable implies quasisupermodular (pp. 164–165): if hhh is strictly increasing and h∘fh \circ fh∘f is supermodular on XXX, then fff is quasisupermodular.
  3. Lemma (p. 165): if fff is quasisupermodular on L={x,x′,x∨x′,x∧x′}L = \{x, x', x \vee x', x \wedge x'\}L={x,x′,x∨x′,x∧x′}, then h∘fh \circ fh∘f is supermodular on LLL for some strictly increasing h:R→Rh : \mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}h:R→R.
  4. Example 1 (p. 165): the function on {0,1}×{0,1,2,3}\{0,1\} \times \{0,1,2,3\}{0,1}×{0,1,2,3} with rows (1,2,2,1)(1,2,2,1)(1,2,2,1) and (3,4,5,3)(3,4,5,3)(3,4,5,3) is quasisupermodular but not supermodularizable.

The Lemma is the "only if" direction of Theorem 8 on a single sublattice; Example 1 shows why the transformation in Theorem 8 must be allowed to depend on (x1,x2)(x_1, x_2)(x1​,x2​).

Significance

Theorem 8 characterizes an ordinal property by a family of cardinal ones: quasisupermodularity is exactly local supermodularizability, on every two-generated sublattice. It explains why quasisupermodularity, and not supermodularity, is the natural hypothesis of ordinal comparative statics, and Example 1 marks the boundary: a single global transformation is not enough, so supermodularizable functions form a strictly smaller class. The paper states an analogous characterization of the single crossing property (Theorem 9, p. 166) without proof.

On the formalization side, none of these results is machine-checked anywhere known to this mission. The platform already holds Topkis's lattice-theoretic definitions and theorems (supermodularity, increasing differences, monotonicity of the argmax under the cardinal conditions); this mission adds the ordinal notion and its characterization on top of the published definition of supermodularity. A formal proof of the Lemma also requires constructing a strictly increasing map of all of R\mathbb{R}R that moves one prescribed value, which is reusable for other "ordinal versus cardinal" results.

Difficulty

The "if" direction and the invariance and supermodularizability remarks are short unfoldings of the definitions. The work is in the Lemma. On a four-point lattice the values a,b,c,da, b, c, da,b,c,d of fff at x,x∨x′,x∧x′,x′x, x \vee x', x \wedge x', x'x,x∨x′,x∧x′,x′ need not satisfy a+d≤b+ca + d \le b + ca+d≤b+c, and the obvious attempt, applying one transformation fixed in advance (such as an exponential), fails: the needed transformation depends on the four values. A strictly increasing hhh of the whole real line must be chosen to separate the values while preserving their order, and the degenerate configurations in which some of the four values coincide, or in which xxx and x′x'x′ are comparable so that the lattice has fewer than four points, have to be handled separately. A second subtlety is that quasisupermodularity is used for both orders of the pair (x,x′)(x, x')(x,x′).

Formalization scope

  • Lattices are Mathlib's Lattice class; joins and meets are ⊔ and ⊓. Functions are real valued.
  • Quasisupermodularity is a draft definition QuasiSupermodularOn g S, relativized to a set SSS; the paper's notion on XXX is QuasiSupermodularOn f Set.univ. It quantifies over all ordered pairs of SSS.
  • Supermodularity is the published definition Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn (Topkis series), also relativized to a set; supermodularity "on the sublattice" is SupermodularOn _ {x₁, x₂, x₁ ⊔ x₂, x₁ ⊓ x₂}.
  • "Strictly increasing" is StrictMono. With merely monotone transformations the statements trivialize: a constant transformation is supermodular on every set, which would make the "if" direction of Theorem 8 false and the second half of Example 1 false. The formal statements rule this out.
  • The transformation g:R×X×X→Rg : \mathbb{R} \times X \times X \to \mathbb{R}g:R×X×X→R of Theorem 8 is curried, g : ℝ → X → X → ℝ; it may depend on (x1,x2)(x_1, x_2)(x1​,x2​) but not on xxx. Transformations are defined on all of R\mathbb{R}R, as printed, not only on the values of fff.
  • The Lemma's four-point lattice is formalized as the subset {x,x′,x∨x′,x∧x′}\{x, x', x \vee x', x \wedge x'\}{x,x′,x∨x′,x∧x′} of an ambient lattice, with both notions relativized to it; the subset is closed under join and meet, so this is the page's statement, including the degenerate cases.
  • Example 1's domain is Fin 2 × Fin 4 with the product order.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and the goal; a general lemma producing strictly increasing maps R→R\mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}R→R with prescribed values on finitely many points.

Selected references

  • P. Milgrom and C. Shannon, Monotone Comparative Statics, Econometrica 62(1), 157–180, 1994. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951479
  • D. M. Topkis, Minimizing a Submodular Function on a Lattice, Operations Research 26(2), 305–321, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.26.2.305
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
  • M. Li Calzi, Generalized Symmetric Supermodular Functions, Working Paper, Stanford University, 1990 (listed so in the paper's references; the text on p. 165 cites it as Li Calzi (1991)).
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Implicit Renewal Theory and Tails of Solutions of Random Equations 2: Kesten's Theorem for R = Q + MR — Unique Stationary Law, Power Tails with Explicit C±, and C₊ + C₋ > 0 iff Q ≢ (1 − M)cResearch Paper

Motivation

The random difference equation

R=LQ+MR,R independent of (Q,M),R \overset{\mathcal L}{=} Q + MR,\qquad R \text{ independent of } (Q,M),R=LQ+MR,R independent of (Q,M),

describes the stationary state of the affine recursion Rn=Qn+MnRn−1R_n = Q_n + M_n R_{n-1}Rn​=Qn​+Mn​Rn−1​ driven by independent copies of a random pair (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M). It appears wherever a quantity is multiplied by a random factor and then receives a random increment: the discounted value of a stream of random cash flows (a perpetuity), the stationary volatility of ARCH and GARCH models in financial econometrics (de Haan, Resnick, Rootzén and de Vries 1989), random walks in random environment, and the stationary laws of random coefficient autoregressions. In all of these, the question that matters for risk is the size of the tail P(R>t)P(R>t)P(R>t).

Timeline:

  • 1973. Kesten proves, in a multivariate setting, that the stationary solution has power-law tails, P(R>t)∼C+t−κP(R>t)\sim C_+t^{-\kappa}P(R>t)∼C+​t−κ, where κ\kappaκ solves E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1; the constants are not identified, and the proof of the key renewal step (his Theorem 4) runs to nine pages.
  • 1979. Vervaat gives a full account of existence, uniqueness and moments of the solution in dimension one.
  • 1980–1981. Grincevičius proves a maximal inequality of Lévy type for the partial sums of the recursion.
  • 1986. Letac formulates a general principle for existence and uniqueness of solutions of random equations R=LΨ(R)R\overset{\mathcal L}{=}\Psi(R)R=LΨ(R).
  • 1991. Goldie proves an implicit renewal theorem (Theorem 2.3, the subject of the first mission of this series) and deduces from it a new proof of Kesten's one-dimensional theorem, with explicit formulas for the constants C±C_\pmC±​ and a necessary and sufficient condition for them not to vanish (Theorem 4.1).
  • 2016. Buraczewski, Damek and Mikosch survey the theory, in which Kesten's theorem in Goldie's form is the central result.

Setting

Let (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) be a pair of real random variables with joint law μ\muμ on R2\mathbb R^2R2. No independence between QQQ and MMM and no sign condition on either is assumed. A probability law ρ\rhoρ on R\mathbb RR is a law for RRR satisfying (1.1) if the law of Q+MRQ+MRQ+MR equals ρ\rhoρ when RRR has law ρ\rhoρ and is independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M).

A law on R\mathbb RR is arithmetic if it is concentrated on a lattice {nλ:n∈Z}\{n\lambda:n\in\mathbb Z\}{nλ:n∈Z} for some λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, and nonarithmetic otherwise. For κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, the conditions of Lemma 2.2 on MMM are

E∣M∣κ=1,E∣M∣κlog⁡+∣M∣<∞,\mathbf E|M|^\kappa = 1,\qquad \mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log^+|M|<\infty,E∣M∣κ=1,E∣M∣κlog+∣M∣<∞,

and that the conditional law of log⁡∣M∣\log|M|log∣M∣ given M≠0M\ne0M=0 is nonarithmetic. Under them

m:=E∣M∣κlog⁡∣M∣∈(0,∞).m := \mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log|M| \in (0,\infty).m:=E∣M∣κlog∣M∣∈(0,∞).

With x+=x∨0x^+=x\vee0x+=x∨0 and x−=(−x)∨0x^-=(-x)\vee0x−=(−x)∨0, the constants of Theorem 4.1 are, when M≥0M\ge0M≥0 a.s.,

C±=E(((Q+MR)±)κ−((MR)±)κ)κm,C_\pm = \frac{\mathbf E\big(((Q+MR)^\pm)^\kappa-((MR)^\pm)^\kappa\big)}{\kappa m},C±​=κmE(((Q+MR)±)κ−((MR)±)κ)​,

and otherwise C+=C−=12κmE(∣Q+MR∣κ−∣MR∣κ)C_+=C_-=\frac{1}{2\kappa m}\mathbf E\big(|Q+MR|^\kappa-|MR|^\kappa\big)C+​=C−​=2κm1​E(∣Q+MR∣κ−∣MR∣κ), where RRR has the stationary law and is independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

Assume the conditions of Lemma 2.2 and E∣Q∣κ<∞\mathbf E|Q|^\kappa<\inftyE∣Q∣κ<∞. Then there is a unique law ρ\rhoρ for RRR satisfying (1.1); the expectations defining C±C_\pmC±​ are finite; and

lim⁡t→∞tκP(R>t)=C+,lim⁡t→∞tκP(R<−t)=C−,\lim_{t\to\infty} t^\kappa P(R>t) = C_+,\qquad \lim_{t\to\infty} t^\kappa P(R<-t) = C_-,t→∞lim​tκP(R>t)=C+​,t→∞lim​tκP(R<−t)=C−​,

with C±C_\pmC±​ as above. Finally

C++C−>0  ⟺  P(Q=(1−M)c)<1  for each fixed c∈R.C_++C_->0 \iff P\big(Q=(1-M)c\big)<1 \ \text{ for each fixed } c\in\mathbb R.C+​+C−​>0⟺P(Q=(1−M)c)<1  for each fixed c∈R.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Corollary 2.4: the implicit renewal theorem with the moment conditions (2.16)–(2.17) and constants (2.18)–(2.20), for a general random function Ψ\PsiΨ in place of t↦Q+Mtt\mapsto Q+Mtt↦Q+Mt.
  2. Lemma 9.4: tail-difference integrals against tκ−1dtt^{\kappa-1}dttκ−1dt versus moment differences.
  3. The elementary inequalities (9.26)–(9.27).
  4. (4.8): for κ>1\kappa>1κ>1, E∣R∣κ−1<∞\mathbf E|R|^{\kappa-1}<\inftyE∣R∣κ−1<∞ with an explicit bound.
  5. (2.16)–(2.17) for Ψ(t)=Q+Mt\Psi(t)=Q+MtΨ(t)=Q+Mt: the moment differences are integrable.
  6. Proposition 4.2 (Grincevičius's maximal inequality) and its consequence (4.6).
  7. The lower bound P(∣Πn∣>et for some n)≥δe−κtP(|\Pi_n|>e^t\text{ for some }n)\ge\delta e^{-\kappa t}P(∣Πn​∣>et for some n)≥δe−κt for the products Πn=M1⋯Mn\Pi_n=M_1\cdots M_nΠn​=M1​⋯Mn​.
  8. Under the condition P(Q=(1−M)c)<1P(Q=(1-M)c)<1P(Q=(1−M)c)<1 for each ccc, tκP(∣R∣>t)t^\kappa P(|R|>t)tκP(∣R∣>t) stays bounded away from 000.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.1 identifies the tail exponent of the stationary solution as the root κ\kappaκ of E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1, which depends on MMM alone, and expresses the tail constants as expectations under the stationary law. The constants yield the bounds of Corollary 4.3 and closed forms when κ\kappaκ is an integer (Corollaries 4.4, 4.5). The dichotomy between M≥0M\ge0M≥0 a.s. (different left and right constants) and P(M<0)>0P(M<0)>0P(M<0)>0 (equal constants) is visible only through these formulas. The positivity criterion tells when the power tail is really there: it fails exactly when the recursion has a deterministic fixed point ccc. Tail estimates for GARCH processes, perpetuities in insurance mathematics and random walks in random environment are applications of this statement.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 1973 and in the present form since 1991; it is open only as a formalization. No machine-checked proof of Kesten's theorem, of the implicit renewal theorem, or of the underlying nonarithmetic key renewal theorem on the whole line is known to this mission. The work consists of formalizing Goldie's proof, which assembles the implicit renewal theorem with moment estimates, a maximal inequality and a Cramér–Lundberg-type lower bound for a random walk with negative drift.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to write R=∑k≥1Πk−1QkR=\sum_{k\ge1}\Pi_{k-1}Q_kR=∑k≥1​Πk−1​Qk​ and estimate the tail of each term. It fails because E∣M∣κ=1\mathbf E|M|^\kappa=1E∣M∣κ=1 makes every term contribute tails of the same order t−κt^{-\kappa}t−κ, and the sum of infinitely many such contributions is exactly what has to be computed; termwise bounds give the right exponent at best, not the limit or the constant. A second natural idea, applying the renewal theorem directly to P(R>t)P(R>t)P(R>t), needs integrability of a tail difference that is not evident, because E∣R∣κ\mathbf E|R|^\kappaE∣R∣κ is infinite whenever C++C−>0C_++C_->0C+​+C−​>0; the moment differences ((Q+MR)+)κ−((MR)+)κ((Q+MR)^+)^\kappa-((MR)^+)^\kappa((Q+MR)+)κ−((MR)+)κ must be controlled without either term being integrable. The positivity half is a separate problem: the formula for C±C_\pmC±​ is a difference of two infinite-looking quantities, and showing it is positive requires a lower bound on the tail that does not come from the formula.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated in terms of laws. The joint law of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) is a probability measure μ\muμ on R×R\mathbb R\times\mathbb RR×R (first coordinate QQQ, second MMM); a law for RRR satisfying (1.1) is a probability measure ρ\rhoρ on R\mathbb RR that equals the image of μ⊗ρ\mu\otimes\rhoμ⊗ρ under ((q,m),r)↦q+mr((q,m),r)\mapsto q+mr((q,m),r)↦q+mr, and uniqueness is among all probability measures on R\mathbb RR, with no moment restriction. Expectations involving RRR and (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M) are integrals against μ⊗ρ\mu\otimes\rhoμ⊗ρ, which is what makes RRR independent of (Q,M)(Q,M)(Q,M). The conditions of Lemma 2.2 are stated for the law of MMM, with E∣M∣κ\mathbf E|M|^\kappaE∣M∣κ and E∣M∣κlog⁡+∣M∣\mathbf E|M|^\kappa\log^+|M|E∣M∣κlog+∣M∣ as lower Lebesgue integrals and the conditional law of log⁡∣M∣\log|M|log∣M∣ taken given M≠0M\neq0M=0. "P(R>t)∼C+t−κP(R>t)\sim C_+t^{-\kappa}P(R>t)∼C+​t−κ" is the limit statement tκP(R>t)→C+t^\kappa P(R>t)\to C_+tκP(R>t)→C+​, which the paper prescribes and which includes C+=0C_+=0C+​=0. Milestones on sequences use independent copies (Qn,Mn)(Q_n,M_n)(Qn​,Mn​) on an arbitrary probability space carrying them, stored 0-based.

The statement does not reduce to a trivial one: the ratio form P(R>t)/(C+t−κ)→1P(R>t)/(C_+t^{-\kappa})\to1P(R>t)/(C+​t−κ)→1 (undefined when C+=0C_+=0C+​=0), existence of some fixed point without uniqueness, the positivity criterion as a one-way implication, and tail limits asserted for an arbitrary random variable rather than for the stationary law are all excluded. One correction to the source is built in: Lemma 9.4's (9.17) is printed as an equality, which fails for independent identically distributed non-degenerate XXX, YYY; the inequality the proof establishes is stated.

A complete development needs: convolution and image measures of products on R2×R\mathbb R^2\times\mathbb RR2×R; the key renewal theorem on the whole line for nonarithmetic laws with positive mean (the content of the first mission of this series); existence and uniqueness for contractive random affine maps; Lévy-type maximal inequalities; and ladder-height estimates for random walks with negative drift whose steps may equal −∞-\infty−∞. The renewal-theoretic and random-walk components are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas such as the moment bounds for perpetuities, are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. M. Goldie, Implicit renewal theory and tails of solutions of random equations, Annals of Applied Probability 1(1):126–166, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005985
  • H. Kesten, Random difference equations and renewal theory for products of random matrices, Acta Mathematica 131:207–248, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02392040
  • W. Vervaat, On a stochastic difference equation and a representation of non-negative infinitely divisible random variables, Advances in Applied Probability 11(4):750–783, 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/1426858
  • L. de Haan, S. I. Resnick, H. Rootzén and C. G. de Vries, Extremal behaviour of solutions to a stochastic difference equation with applications to ARCH processes, Stochastic Processes and their Applications 32(2):213–224, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(89)90076-8
  • D. Buraczewski, E. Damek and T. Mikosch, Stochastic Models with Power-Law Tails: The Equation X = AX + B, Springer, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-29679-1
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Graph TheoryMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Geometric Bounds for Eigenvalues of Markov Chains 2: Odd Closed Paths Bound the Smallest Eigenvalue, β_min ≥ −1 + 2/ιResearch Paper

Motivation

The speed at which a finite reversible Markov chain approaches its stationary distribution is controlled by its eigenvalues. For a chain with eigenvalues 1=β0>β1≥⋯≥βm−1≥−11=\beta_0>\beta_1\ge\dots\ge\beta_{m-1}\ge-11=β0​>β1​≥⋯≥βm−1​≥−1, the distance to stationarity after nnn steps is governed by β∗ n\beta_*^{\,n}β∗n​, where β∗=max⁡(β1,∣βm−1∣)\beta_*=\max(\beta_1,|\beta_{m-1}|)β∗​=max(β1​,∣βm−1​∣) (Diaconis and Stroock 1991, Proposition 3). Upper bounds on the second eigenvalue β1\beta_1β1​ are the familiar half of this picture, and they are what Cheeger-type and Poincaré inequalities provide. The other half is the smallest eigenvalue βmin⁡=βm−1\beta_{\min}=\beta_{m-1}βmin​=βm−1​: a chain whose smallest eigenvalue is close to −1-1−1 oscillates almost periodically and mixes slowly whatever β1\beta_1β1​ is. A chain is aperiodic exactly when βmin⁡>−1\beta_{\min}>-1βmin​>−1, but that qualitative fact gives no rate.

Diaconis and Stroock's paper gives geometric bounds for both ends of the spectrum, expressed through systems of paths in the graph of the chain. Their bound on βmin⁡\beta_{\min}βmin​ uses closed paths with an odd number of edges, the combinatorial witnesses of aperiodicity. The paper has been a standard reference for path (canonical-path, multicommodity-flow) methods in the analysis of Markov chain Monte Carlo since its publication.

Timeline:

  • 1988–1989, Jerrum and Sinclair: conductance (Cheeger-type) bounds on β1\beta_1β1​ for chains on combinatorial structures.
  • 1991, Diaconis and Stroock: path bounds for β1\beta_1β1​ (Proposition 1, the Poincaré inequality β1≤1−1/κ\beta_1\le1-1/\kappaβ1​≤1−1/κ) and for βmin⁡\beta_{\min}βmin​ (Proposition 2, this mission), with the specializations to random walks on graphs (Corollaries 1 and 2).

Setting

Let XXX be a finite set and P(x,y)P(x,y)P(x,y) the transition matrix of an irreducible Markov chain on XXX, reversible with respect to a probability distribution π\piπ:

Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x)(x,y∈X).Q(x,y)=\pi(x)P(x,y)=\pi(y)P(y,x)\qquad(x,y\in X).Q(x,y)=π(x)P(x,y)=π(y)P(y,x)(x,y∈X).

The operator (Pφ)(x)=∑yP(x,y)φ(y)(P\varphi)(x)=\sum_yP(x,y)\varphi(y)(Pφ)(x)=∑y​P(x,y)φ(y) is self-adjoint on L2(π)L^2(\pi)L2(π), with inner product ⟨φ,ψ⟩L2(π)=∑xφ(x)ψ(x)π(x)\langle\varphi,\psi\rangle_{L^2(\pi)}=\sum_x\varphi(x)\psi(x)\pi(x)⟨φ,ψ⟩L2(π)​=∑x​φ(x)ψ(x)π(x), so its eigenvalues are real. Write E(φ2)=∑xφ(x)2π(x)E(\varphi^2)=\sum_x\varphi(x)^2\pi(x)E(φ2)=∑x​φ(x)2π(x) and let βmin⁡\beta_{\min}βmin​ be the smallest eigenvalue of PPP.

The graph of the chain has vertex set XXX, an edge from xxx to yyy when Q(x,y)>0Q(x,y)>0Q(x,y)>0, and a self-loop at xxx when Q(x,x)>0Q(x,x)>0Q(x,x)>0. An odd closed path σx\sigma_xσx​ at xxx is a sequence of edges from xxx back to xxx, with an odd number of edges, in which no directed edge is traversed twice. Its length is

∣σx∣Q=∑e∈σxQ(e)−1.|\sigma_x|_Q=\sum_{e\in\sigma_x}Q(e)^{-1}.∣σx​∣Q​=e∈σx​∑​Q(e)−1.

A system of odd paths Σ=(σx)x∈X\Sigma=(\sigma_x)_{x\in X}Σ=(σx​)x∈X​ chooses one such path for every point, and its load is

ι=ι(Σ)=max⁡e∑σx∋e∣σx∣Q π(x),\iota=\iota(\Sigma)=\max_e\sum_{\sigma_x\ni e}|\sigma_x|_Q\,\pi(x),ι=ι(Σ)=emax​σx​∋e∑​∣σx​∣Q​π(x),

the maximum over directed edges eee of the weighted length of the paths through eee (display (1.7) of the paper).

For the random walk on a graph G=(X,E)G=(X,E)G=(X,E), P(x,y)=1/d(x)P(x,y)=1/d(x)P(x,y)=1/d(x) when {x,y}∈E\{x,y\}\in E{x,y}∈E, with d(x)d(x)d(x) the degree, and π(x)=d(x)/2∣E∣\pi(x)=d(x)/2|E|π(x)=d(x)/2∣E∣. There d∗d_*d∗​ is the maximum degree, σ∗\sigma_*σ∗​ the largest number of edges of a path in Σ\SigmaΣ, and b∗=max⁡e♯{σ∈Σ:e∈σ}b_*=\max_e\sharp\{\sigma\in\Sigma:e\in\sigma\}b∗​=maxe​♯{σ∈Σ:e∈σ}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

For an irreducible, aperiodic, reversible chain and every system Σ\SigmaΣ of odd closed paths,

βmin⁡≥−1+2ι(Σ).\beta_{\min}\ge-1+\frac{2}{\iota(\Sigma)}.βmin​≥−1+ι(Σ)2​.

Milestones (the steps of the paper's proof)

  1. The identity (1.8): 12∑x,y(φ(x)+φ(y))2Q(x,y)=E(φ2)+⟨φ,Pφ⟩L2(π)\tfrac12\sum_{x,y}(\varphi(x)+\varphi(y))^2Q(x,y)=E(\varphi^2)+\langle\varphi,P\varphi\rangle_{L^2(\pi)}21​∑x,y​(φ(x)+φ(y))2Q(x,y)=E(φ2)+⟨φ,Pφ⟩L2(π)​.
  2. Along an odd closed path x,y,w,…,z,xx,y,w,\dots,z,xx,y,w,…,z,x: φ(x)=12{(φ(x)+φ(y))−(φ(y)+φ(w))+⋯+(φ(z)+φ(x))}\varphi(x)=\tfrac12\{(\varphi(x)+\varphi(y))-(\varphi(y)+\varphi(w))+\dots+(\varphi(z)+\varphi(x))\}φ(x)=21​{(φ(x)+φ(y))−(φ(y)+φ(w))+⋯+(φ(z)+φ(x))}.
  3. For every φ\varphiφ: E(φ2)≤ι2(E(φ2)+⟨φ,Pφ⟩L2(π))E(\varphi^2)\le\frac{\iota}{2}\big(E(\varphi^2)+\langle\varphi,P\varphi\rangle_{L^2(\pi)}\big)E(φ2)≤2ι​(E(φ2)+⟨φ,Pφ⟩L2(π)​).
  4. Every eigenvalue β\betaβ of PPP satisfies β≥−1+2/ι\beta\ge-1+2/\iotaβ≥−1+2/ι.

Companions

  • Corollary 2. For the random walk on a connected, non-bipartite graph and any system Σ\SigmaΣ of odd paths, βmin⁡≥−1+2d∗σ∗b∗\beta_{\min}\ge-1+\dfrac{2}{d_*\sigma_*b_*}βmin​≥−1+d∗​σ∗​b∗​2​.
  • Remark 1.3. With odd paths σxy\sigma_{xy}σxy​ for every ordered pair and ι~=max⁡e∑σxy∋e∣σxy∣Qπ(x)π(y)\tilde\iota=\max_e\sum_{\sigma_{xy}\ni e}|\sigma_{xy}|_Q\pi(x)\pi(y)ι~=maxe​∑σxy​∋e​∣σxy​∣Q​π(x)π(y): βmin⁡≥−1+1/ι~\beta_{\min}\ge-1+1/\tilde\iotaβmin​≥−1+1/ι~.

Significance

Proposition 2 turns aperiodicity into a number. With Proposition 1, which bounds β1≤1−1/κ\beta_1\le1-1/\kappaβ1​≤1−1/κ through paths between pairs of points, it bounds the absolute spectral gap 1−β∗1-\beta_*1−β∗​ entirely in terms of path geometry, and so bounds the variation distance to stationarity through Proposition 3. Corollary 2 is the form most often applied: for a random walk on a non-bipartite graph, a choice of short odd cycles that do not crowd any single edge certifies that the walk does not oscillate.

Proposition 2 and its corollary are proved in the paper. As far as a search of the platform shows, no machine-checked proof exists. The platform already has the vocabulary (stochastic matrices, stationarity, reversibility, eigenvalues and the L2(π)L^2(\pi)L2(π) inner product, from the published Levin–Peres–Wilmer layer) and the qualitative fact that −1-1−1 is not an eigenvalue of an irreducible aperiodic chain. This mission adds the quantitative bound, the identity (1.8), and the path inequality, all reusable for other path-based eigenvalue estimates.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary, but the bookkeeping is where a proof can go wrong. The Cauchy–Schwarz step is applied along each path separately, and the resulting double sum over points and over the edges of their paths must be exchanged into a sum over edges. That exchange is exact only if each path traverses each directed edge at most once. A path that crosses an edge twice contributes twice, while ι\iotaι counts it once. Self-loops are edges here, and the sum over directed edges in the last step must match the sum over ordered pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), including x=yx=yx=y, in the identity (1.8). The alternating signs work only because the number of edges is odd; an even closed path cancels φ(x)\varphi(x)φ(x) instead of doubling it.

The bound is also only as good as the chosen paths: short odd cycles that spread their load over many edges give a small ι\iotaι, and the choice of Σ\SigmaΣ is part of every application.

Formalization scope

The chain is a real matrix P : Matrix V V ℝ on a Fintype V, with the published predicates IsStochastic, Irreducible, Aperiodic, IsStationary (which includes that π\piπ is a probability vector) and DetailedBalance. QQQ is edgeMeasure, the inner product innerPi, eigenvalues IsEigenvalue (a real eigenvalue with a nonzero real eigenfunction). βmin⁡\beta_{\min}βmin​ is the infimum of the real eigenvalues of PPP, a minimum for a stochastic matrix on a nonempty set.

Paths are vertex lists. A path traverses the directed edges between consecutive vertices, each with Q>0Q>0Q>0. The paper defines ∣σx∣Q|\sigma_x|_Q∣σx​∣Q​ "by analogy with (1.4)", whose paths may not repeat an edge. For the directed edges of §1C this rule is read as "no directed edge twice". Under the unordered reading a vertex of degree one would have no odd closed path, contradicting the page's remark that such paths always exist for irreducible aperiodic chains. ι\iotaι is a real supremum over the finite set of directed edges with Q>0Q>0Q>0, and it is 000 only when there is no edge. A system of odd paths on a nonempty set excludes that case, so the bound is never reduced to βmin⁡≥−1\beta_{\min}\ge-1βmin​≥−1 by 2/0=02/0=02/0=0. The system Σ\SigmaΣ is a universally quantified hypothesis of every statement, never an existential one. No milestone assumes the inequality of milestone 3 or the identity (1.8) as a hypothesis. No assumption ∣X∣≥2|X|\ge2∣X∣≥2 is made.

Milestones 3 and 4 do not assume aperiodicity: the existence of an odd path system implies it. The identity (1.8) assumes only stochasticity and stationarity. Corollary 2 assumes only that the graph is connected and not 2-colorable; the chain properties follow from these. In Corollary 2, b∗b_*b∗​ counts paths through a directed edge, which is at most the count through the unordered edge, so the stated bound implies the one with the unordered count. Only the first half of Remark 1.3 is stated; its second half needs Proposition 1's quantity, which belongs to another mission of the series.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in order, a general Cauchy–Schwarz-along-paths lemma shared with the Poincaré inequality, and the existence of odd path systems for irreducible aperiodic chains.

Selected references

  • P. Diaconis and D. Stroock, Geometric bounds for eigenvalues of Markov chains, Ann. Appl. Probab. 1(1):36–61, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005980
  • A. Sinclair and M. Jerrum, Approximate counting, uniform generation and rapidly mixing Markov chains, Inform. and Comput. 82(1):93–133, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0890-5401(89)90067-9
  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres and E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, American Mathematical Society, 2009 (2nd ed. 2017). https://doi.org/10.1090/mbk/107
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Complexity TheoryProbabilityQuantum Information+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantum Computing II: Relative to a Random Permutation, a Quantum Algorithm Needs Ω(2^{n/3}) Queries to Decide the First Bit of A⁻¹(1ⁿ)Research Paper

Motivation

An oracle lets an algorithm ask for the value of a function without giving it a description of that function. An oracle lower bound isolates how many questions are needed, even when computation between questions is unrestricted. Bennett, Bernstein, Brassard and Vazirani used this viewpoint to compare classical and quantum access to randomly chosen functions and permutations. Their Theorem 3.6 states an almost-sure separation: relative to a random permutation oracle, a quantum machine using time o(2n/3)o(2^{n/3})o(2n/3) cannot capture all of (NP∩coNP)A(\mathrm{NP}\cap\mathrm{coNP})^A(NP∩coNP)A BBBV, Theorem 3.6. The same paper notes that its exponent 1/31/31/3 may reflect the available argument rather than the true boundary BBBV, p. 12.

The finite statement behind that separation is a quantum query lower bound for a uniformly random permutation. It asks about one bit of the inverse image of a fixed string, rather than inversion of the whole permutation. This gives a sharply defined target with the paper's explicit query and error constants.

Setting

Let Σn={0,1}n\Sigma^n=\{0,1\}^nΣn={0,1}n, and let AAA be a permutation oracle of Σn\Sigma^nΣn. Its inverse image of the all-one string 1n1^n1n exists and is unique. Define the language LA\mathcal L_ALA​ by putting yyy in LA\mathcal L_ALA​ when the first bit of A−1(y)A^{-1}(y)A−1(y) is 111. The paper observes that access to AAA puts this language in both NPA\mathrm{NP}^ANPA and coNPA\mathrm{coNP}^AcoNPA: either possible bit of the inverse image can be witnessed by an input to the permutation BBBV, p. 10. This mission tests membership only at y=1ny=1^ny=1n.

A TTT-query quantum algorithm starts in a unit vector of a finite complex Hilbert space. A basis configuration records an optional length-nnn query string, an answer register, and finite workspace. On a querying configuration (x,z,w)(x,z,w)(x,z,w), an oracle operation replaces the answer register by z⊕A(x)z\oplus A(x)z⊕A(x); it leaves a nonquerying configuration unchanged. Each oracle operation is followed by an algorithm-chosen unitary. The final acceptance probability is the sum of the squared amplitudes of accepting basis configurations. A run decides a yes-or-no question if its acceptance probability is at least 2/32/32/3 on a yes instance and at most 1/31/31/3 on a no instance. These thresholds match the paper's bounded-error convention BBBV, §2 and §3.1.

For a state ϕ\phiϕ, the query magnitude qy(ϕ)q_y(\phi)qy​(ϕ) is the total squared amplitude of basis configurations querying string yyy. Thus 0≤qy(ϕ)≤10\le q_y(\phi)\le10≤qy​(ϕ)≤1 for a unit state, and the magnitudes over all strings sum to at most 111. This is Definition 3.2 of the paper BBBV, p. 7.

Formalization targets

The goal is the finite claim in the proof of Theorem 3.6. For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1, every finite-workspace algorithm MMM with TTT queries, and a uniform permutation AAA of Σn\Sigma^nΣn,

T≤2n/3100⟹Pr⁡A ⁣[M fails to decide whether the first bit of A−1(1n) is 1]≥18.T\le\frac{2^{n/3}}{100} \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \Pr_A\!\left[M\text{ fails to decide whether the first bit of }A^{-1}(1^n)\text{ is }1\right]\ge\frac18.T≤1002n/3​⟹APr​[M fails to decide whether the first bit of A−1(1n) is 1]≥81​.

The milestones follow the statements used in the paper: Theorem 3.1 relates Euclidean distance between final states to their observed distributions; Theorem 3.3 bounds the effect of changing answers at queried strings; and the proof of Theorem 3.6 establishes the uniform transposition chain, the 1/21/21/2 membership split, the expected query-magnitude estimate, and the 1/501/501/50 expected final-state distance BBBV, pp. 7–11. The source text of each milestone is recorded with its page in the mission's milestone list.

Significance

The result identifies a concrete task that cannot be decided reliably with too few quantum oracle calls for a positive fraction of length-nnn permutation oracles. The inverse image exists by definition, so the obstruction is the number of queries needed to learn its first bit. This is the quantitative part of the paper's relative separation for NP∩coNP\mathrm{NP}\cap\mathrm{coNP}NP∩coNP; the passage to an almost-sure statement over countably many machines is described in the paper but lies beyond this mission's formal goal BBBV, pp. 10–12.

The theorem is proved on paper and is not claimed here as an open mathematical problem. Formalizing it produces reusable finite-dimensional machinery for quantum queries: an XOR oracle as a unitary basis permutation, query magnitude, a time-dependent hybrid oracle, and counting-based probability over finite permutation spaces. The milestone statements remain open Lean proof obligations in this proposal.

Difficulty

A direct comparison of an algorithm's run under two nearby permutation oracles requires knowing that the algorithm seldom queries the locations where those oracles differ. The distinguished preimage A−1(1n)A^{-1}(1^n)A−1(1n) cannot simply be declared rarely queried: learning about it is exactly the task under study. The paper therefore studies a chain of random transpositions and a run whose oracle changes by step. The subtle point is that a string used in a later transposition is still uniform when the earlier query state is formed BBBV, pp. 10–11. The expected query-magnitude milestone states that point explicitly.

Formalization scope

The Lean carrier of strings is Fin(n)→Z/2Z\mathrm{Fin}(n)\to\mathbb Z/2\mathbb ZFin(n)→Z/2Z. Algorithms use finite configuration types and EuclideanSpace ℂ; the query register is optional, and none represents configurations that make no length-nnn query. An oracle answers with the full length-nnn value by XOR in the answer register. The paper describes a Boolean oracle, but one full-value query can be simulated with nnn Boolean queries and one Boolean query with two full-value queries. The latter direction transfers this lower bound to the paper's oracle at a changed constant. Answers at lengths other than nnn are fixed and absorbed into the inter-query unitaries, as in the paper's finite-length argument. The full oracle quantum Turing machine, complexity classes as Lean objects, and the almost-sure conclusion are outside the model.

Probabilities and expectations are finite counting fractions. The chain samples a uniform π0\pi_0π0​ and independent uniform x1,…,xT+1x_1,\ldots,x_{T+1}x1​,…,xT+1​, with x0=π0−1(1n)x_0=\pi_0^{-1}(1^n)x0​=π0−1​(1n); this has the same joint law as the paper's conditional sampling order. The recurrence πi+1=πi∘(xi xi+1)\pi_{i+1}=\pi_i\circ(x_i\ x_{i+1})πi+1​=πi​∘(xi​ xi+1​) uses the paper's composition direction. The first-bit test requires n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and any comparison to πT−1\pi_{T-1}πT−1​ requires T≥1T\ge1T≥1. The goal quantifies over every finite workspace and algorithm before sampling the permutation. A uniform function in place of a permutation, or a predetermined inverse image, would change the task and is excluded.

The paper's Theorem 3.3 prints a final-state bound ε\varepsilonε that fails for a one-query XOR example; the milestone states the valid 2ε2\varepsilon2ε bound. Its baseline oracle may vary by step because the proof of Theorem 3.6 uses the hybrid run. The explicit constants T≤2n/3/100T\le 2^{n/3}/100T≤2n/3/100, failure probability 1/81/81/8, and expected distance 1/501/501/50 remain as printed. General finite-dimensional unitary and probability lemmas, together with a proof of the time-dependent hybrid bound, are welcome contributions. The finite query model and transposition-chain definitions are reusable in other oracle lower bounds.

Selected references

  • C. H. Bennett, E. Bernstein, G. Brassard, and U. Vazirani, Strengths and weaknesses of quantum computing, SIAM Journal on Computing 26(5), 1997; arXiv:quant-ph/9701001v1.
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Functional AnalysisMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Logarithmic Sobolev Inequalities for Finite Markov Chains 2: Entropy Decay Ent_π(μH_t) ≤ e^{−2αt} Ent_π(μ), Improved to e^{−4αt} for Reversible ChainsResearch Paper

Motivation

How fast a finite Markov chain forgets its starting point is the central quantitative question in the analysis of Monte Carlo algorithms, card shuffling and random walks on groups. The classical tool is the spectral gap λ\lambdaλ, which controls convergence in ℓ2(π)\ell^2(\pi)ℓ2(π) but loses a factor 1/π(x)1/\pi(x)1/π(x) when converted into a bound for a chain started at a point. Diaconis and Saloff-Coste (Ann. Appl. Probab. 6 (1996) 695–750) brought the logarithmic Sobolev constant α\alphaα, introduced by Gross for Gaussian measures (Amer. J. Math. 97 (1975)), into the study of finite chains, and showed that it gives sharper mixing bounds in many examples.

The entropy route to ergodicity is the cleanest consequence of a log-Sobolev inequality: the relative entropy of the chain's law with respect to stationarity decays exponentially at rate 2α2\alpha2α, and at rate 4α4\alpha4α for reversible chains. The paper notes that the reversible case is contained in Bakry's Saint-Flour lectures (Lecture Notes in Math. 1581, 1994) and Stroock's notes on Gibbs states (Lecture Notes in Math. 1563, 1993), and that Miclo (preprint, 1995) treated the nonreversible case.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a finite set and KKK a Markov kernel: K(x,y)≥0K(x,y)\ge0K(x,y)≥0 and ∑yK(x,y)=1\sum_y K(x,y)=1∑y​K(x,y)=1. Let π\piπ be an invariant probability, ∑xπ(x)K(x,y)=π(y)\sum_x\pi(x)K(x,y)=\pi(y)∑x​π(x)K(x,y)=π(y), with π(x)>0\pi(x)>0π(x)>0 for every xxx. Functions act on the right, Kf(x)=∑yK(x,y)f(y)Kf(x)=\sum_yK(x,y)f(y)Kf(x)=∑y​K(x,y)f(y), and ⟨f,g⟩=∑xf(x)g(x)π(x)\langle f,g\rangle=\sum_xf(x)g(x)\pi(x)⟨f,g⟩=∑x​f(x)g(x)π(x) is the inner product of ℓ2(π)\ell^2(\pi)ℓ2(π), with norms ∥f∥p=(∑x∣f(x)∣pπ(x))1/p\|f\|_p=(\sum_x|f(x)|^p\pi(x))^{1/p}∥f∥p​=(∑x​∣f(x)∣pπ(x))1/p. The chain is reversible if π(x)K(x,y)=π(y)K(y,x)\pi(x)K(x,y)=\pi(y)K(y,x)π(x)K(x,y)=π(y)K(y,x) for all x,yx,yx,y.

The continuous-time heat semigroup is

Ht=e−t(I−K)=e−t∑n≥0tnn!Kn,H_t=e^{-t(I-K)}=e^{-t}\sum_{n\ge0}\frac{t^n}{n!}K^n,Ht​=e−t(I−K)=e−tn≥0∑​n!tn​Kn,

acting on functions by Htf(x)=∑yHt(x,y)f(y)H_tf(x)=\sum_yH_t(x,y)f(y)Ht​f(x)=∑y​Ht​(x,y)f(y) and on probability measures by μHt(y)=∑xHt(x,y)μ(x)\mu H_t(y)=\sum_xH_t(x,y)\mu(x)μHt​(y)=∑x​Ht​(x,y)μ(x). The row Htx=Ht(x,⋅)H_t^x=H_t(x,\cdot)Htx​=Ht​(x,⋅) is the law at time ttt of the chain started at xxx.

The Dirichlet form is E(f,g)=⟨(I−K)f,g⟩\mathcal E(f,g)=\langle (I-K)f,g\rangleE(f,g)=⟨(I−K)f,g⟩; it is bilinear but not symmetric unless the chain is reversible. With

L(f)=∑x∣f(x)∣2log⁡∣f(x)∣2∥f∥22 π(x),\mathcal L(f)=\sum_x|f(x)|^2\log\frac{|f(x)|^2}{\|f\|_2^2}\,\pi(x),L(f)=x∑​∣f(x)∣2log∥f∥22​∣f(x)∣2​π(x),

the log-Sobolev constant is

α=inf⁡{E(f,f)L(f):L(f)≠0}.\alpha=\inf\Big\{\frac{\mathcal E(f,f)}{\mathcal L(f)}:\mathcal L(f)\ne0\Big\}.α=inf{L(f)E(f,f)​:L(f)=0}.

The relative entropy of a probability μ\muμ is Entπ(μ)=∑xμ(x)log⁡μ(x)π(x)\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)=\sum_x\mu(x)\log\frac{\mu(x)}{\pi(x)}Entπ​(μ)=∑x​μ(x)logπ(x)μ(x)​, and the total variation distance is ∥μ−π∥TV=sup⁡A⊂X∣μ(A)−π(A)∣\|\mu-\pi\|_{TV}=\sup_{A\subset\mathcal X}|\mu(A)-\pi(A)|∥μ−π∥TV​=supA⊂X​∣μ(A)−π(A)∣.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.6 (p. 722)

For every probability measure μ\muμ on X\mathcal XX,

Entπ(μHt)≤Entπ(μ) e−2αt,t>0,\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu H_t)\le\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)\,e^{-2\alpha t},\qquad t>0,Entπ​(μHt​)≤Entπ​(μ)e−2αt,t>0,

and, if (K,π)(K,\pi)(K,π) is reversible,

Entπ(μHt)≤Entπ(μ) e−4αt,t>0.\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu H_t)\le\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)\,e^{-4\alpha t},\qquad t>0.Entπ​(μHt​)≤Entπ​(μ)e−4αt,t>0.

Milestones

  1. §2.1, Remarks (ii), p. 702: if μ=fπ\mu=f\piμ=fπ then μHt\mu H_tμHt​ has density Ht∗fH_t^*fHt∗​f, where Ht∗H_t^*Ht∗​ is the semigroup of the adjoint kernel K∗(x,y)=K(y,x)π(y)/π(x)K^*(x,y)=K(y,x)\pi(y)/\pi(x)K∗(x,y)=K(y,x)π(y)/π(x).
  2. Lemma 2.5, second part, p. 707: ∂t Entπ(Htf)∣t=0=−E(f,log⁡f)\partial_t\,\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(H_tf)|_{t=0}=-\mathcal E(f,\log f)∂t​Entπ​(Ht​f)∣t=0​=−E(f,logf).
  3. Lemma 2.7, p. 708: E(log⁡f,f)≥2 E(f,f)\mathcal E(\log f,f)\ge2\,\mathcal E(\sqrt f,\sqrt f)E(logf,f)≥2E(f​,f​), and ≥4 E(f,f)\ge4\,\mathcal E(\sqrt f,\sqrt f)≥4E(f​,f​) for reversible chains.
  4. §3.3, p. 722: for f≥0f\ge0f≥0 with ∥f∥2=1\|f\|_2=1∥f∥2​=1 and μ=f2π\mu=f^2\piμ=f2π, L(f)=Entπ(μ)\mathcal L(f)=\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)L(f)=Entπ​(μ).
  5. (2.8), p. 710: 2∥μ−π∥TV2≤Entπ(μ)≤∥μ−π∥TV+12∥μ/π−1∥π,222\|\mu-\pi\|_{TV}^2\le\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)\le\|\mu-\pi\|_{TV}+\tfrac12\|\mu/\pi-1\|_{\pi,2}^22∥μ−π∥TV2​≤Entπ​(μ)≤∥μ−π∥TV​+21​∥μ/π−1∥π,22​.

Companion: (3.3) (p. 723)

For an irreducible chain, every xxx and t>0t>0t>0,

2∥Htx−π∥TV2≤(log⁡1π(x))e−2αt,2\|H_t^x-\pi\|_{TV}^2\le\Big(\log\frac1{\pi(x)}\Big)e^{-2\alpha t},2∥Htx​−π∥TV2​≤(logπ(x)1​)e−2αt,

with 2α2\alpha2α replaced by 4α4\alpha4α for reversible chains.

Significance

Theorem 3.6 turns a single functional inequality into a convergence statement valid for every initial law, with no spectral assumption and no reversibility in the first half. Through Pinsker's inequality it gives (3.3), whose prefactor log⁡(1/π(x))\log(1/\pi(x))log(1/π(x)) replaces the factor 1/π(x)1/\pi(x)1/π(x) of the spectral bound 4∥Htx−π∥TV2≤π(x)−1e−2λt4\|H_t^x-\pi\|_{TV}^2\le\pi(x)^{-1}e^{-2\lambda t}4∥Htx​−π∥TV2​≤π(x)−1e−2λt. When π(x)\pi(x)π(x) is exponentially small in the size of the problem, as for random walks on large groups or product spaces, log⁡(1/π(x))\log(1/\pi(x))log(1/π(x)) is polynomial where 1/π(x)1/\pi(x)1/π(x) is exponential, and the time needed to make the bound small drops accordingly. This is the mechanism behind the sharp mixing bounds the paper derives from α\alphaα.

The results are proved in the paper and are classical; they are not, to our knowledge, formalized. The platform has measure-theoretic statements of Pinsker's inequality and the published finite Markov chain vocabulary of Levin–Peres–Wilmer (stochastic matrices, stationarity, total variation, the heat kernel), but nothing about log-Sobolev constants of finite chains, the entropy derivative along a Markov semigroup, or entropy decay. A formal development provides the entropy layer of the finite-chain theory: the adjoint semigroup, the dissipation identity, the comparison of E(log⁡f,f)\mathcal E(\log f,f)E(logf,f) with E(f,f)\mathcal E(\sqrt f,\sqrt f)E(f​,f​), and Pinsker's inequality in the encoding used by the mixing-time library.

Difficulty

The statement is about measures, while the natural quantities to differentiate are densities with respect to π\piπ, and for a nonreversible chain the density of μHt\mu H_tμHt​ evolves under the adjoint semigroup, not under HtH_tHt​. The Dirichlet form is not symmetric, so the order of its arguments matters at every step, and the improvement from 2α2\alpha2α to 4α4\alpha4α holds only under reversibility.

The obvious first idea, differentiating Entπ(μHt)\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu H_t)Entπ​(μHt​) term by term, meets log⁡0\log 0log0 wherever the density vanishes. The initial law may be a point mass, and for a reducible chain the density can stay zero at positive times. The argument must therefore handle the boundary t=0t=0t=0 and the degenerate laws separately from the smooth interior. The constant α\alphaα is defined as an infimum over all functions, with no claim that it is attained or positive.

Formalization scope

The state space is a Fintype with decidable equality, KKK is a real matrix with the published predicate MarkovMixing.IsStochastic, π\piπ satisfies MarkovMixing.IsStationary K π and π(x)>0\pi(x)>0π(x)>0 for all xxx, and reversibility is MarkovMixing.DetailedBalance K π. HtH_tHt​ is the published MarkovMixing.heatKernel K t (the Poisson series), the adjoint kernel is MarkovMixing.timeReversal K π, and total variation is MarkovMixing.tvDist. Time is real, and the decay statements are for t>0t>0t>0.

The local definitions are E(f,g)=∑x(f(x)−Kf(x))g(x)π(x)\mathcal E(f,g)=\sum_x(f(x)-Kf(x))g(x)\pi(x)E(f,g)=∑x​(f(x)−Kf(x))g(x)π(x), the norms ∥f∥p\|f\|_p∥f∥p​, L\mathcal LL, α\alphaα as a real infimum over the ratios with L(f)≠0\mathcal L(f)\ne0L(f)=0, Entπ(μ)\mathrm{Ent}_\pi(\mu)Entπ​(μ), and μHt\mu H_tμHt​ as the row vector μ Ht\mu\,H_tμHt​. Lean's Real.log 0 = 0 implements 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0. The goal does not assume irreducibility: it is true for every stochastic KKK with a positive invariant probability, and a reducible chain has α=0\alpha=0α=0. The companion (3.3) keeps irreducibility, the standing assumption of Section 3. In Lemmas 2.5 and 2.7 the paper's f≥0f\ge0f≥0 is strengthened to f>0f>0f>0, because log⁡f\log flogf is −∞-\infty−∞ at a zero of fff on the page and 000 in Lean.

Several encodings would make the goal trivially true and are ruled out. α\alphaα is not assumed positive. μ\muμ is a probability, since for μ=2π\mu=2\piμ=2π the entropy is a positive constant in ttt. π\piπ is invariant and positive, so μ/π\mu/\piμ/π is meaningful. The eigenvalue-based MarkovMixing.spectralGap is not used. Applying HtH_tHt​ to μ\muμ as a function, HtμH_t\muHt​μ, is not the same as μHt\mu H_tμHt​ for a nonreversible chain.

A complete development needs: termwise differentiation of the heat-kernel series and the semigroup property ∂tHt=(K−I)Ht\partial_tH_t=(K-I)H_t∂t​Ht​=(K−I)Ht​; the adjoint identity for HtH_tHt​; elementary convexity inequalities for log⁡\loglog and ⋅\sqrt{\cdot}⋅​; the symmetric form of E\mathcal EE for reversible chains; Pinsker's inequality on a finite set; and a scalar Grönwall lemma. The heat-kernel calculus and Pinsker's inequality in the MarkovMixing.tvDist encoding are reusable by the other missions of this series and by any mixing-time development. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • P. Diaconis and L. Saloff-Coste, Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities for finite Markov chains, Ann. Appl. Probab. 6 (1996), 695–750. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1034968224
  • L. Gross, Logarithmic Sobolev inequalities, Amer. J. Math. 97 (1975), 1061–1083. https://doi.org/10.2307/2373688
  • D. A. Levin, Y. Peres and E. L. Wilmer, Markov Chains and Mixing Times, 2nd ed., American Mathematical Society, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1090/mbk/107
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CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: marwahaha

3SUM in O(n^1.999074) Time on a Word RAMOpen Problem

Prove a deterministic O(n1.999074)O(n^{1.999074})O(n1.999074) algorithm for integer 3SUM in the campaign's shared word-RAM model, improving the verified 1.9991121.9991121.999112 bound.

A promising parameter choice is c=22c=22c=22, θ=0.11229\theta=0.11229θ=0.11229, D=⌊n0.054⌋D=\lfloor n^{0.054}\rfloorD=⌊n0.054⌋, and g=⌈D0.0343⌉g=\lceil D^{0.0343}\rceilg=⌈D0.0343⌉. Lean-checked arithmetic certificates give γ>0.0686\gamma>0.0686γ>0.0686, q≤0.431369<0.4314q\le0.431369<0.4314q≤0.431369<0.4314, and 0.054<Rc0.054<R_c0.054<Rc​. The predicted Exact Triangle saving is δ=0.0018522\delta=0.0018522δ=0.0018522, giving a 3SUM cutoff of 1.99907391.99907391.9990739 and a strict margin below the target.

The algorithmic claim remains open. The milestones are to establish the faster inner solver, then verify the integer computations for DDD and ggg and prove the total Exact Triangle cost, including preprocessing and scans. The existing verified reductions and foundation definitions can then be reused. The numerical certificates alone do not prove the mission.

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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Fast Rates for Support Vector Machines Using Gaussian Kernels 1: Under Tsybakov and Geometric Noise, Gaussian-Kernel SVMs Reach Excess Risk Cx²n^{−β+ε} with Probability 1 − e^{−x}Research Paper

Motivation

Support vector machines classify observations by choosing a real-valued function from a reproducing kernel Hilbert space and using its sign as the predicted label. The Gaussian kernel is widely used because it gives a flexible class of functions, but that flexibility alone does not explain how quickly classification error approaches the best possible error as the training sample grows. Steinwart and Scovel's 2007 paper identifies distributional conditions under which a Gaussian-kernel SVM achieves a polynomial, and sometimes nearly linear, excess-risk rate. The conditions describe both ambiguity in the labels and the location of data relative to the decision boundary.

The article's result is already proved mathematically. This mission asks for machine-checked statements and proofs of its finite-geometric-exponent, no-offset rate and selected supporting results. It uses arXiv:0708.1838v1, the electronic reprint of the Annals of Statistics article. Its printed page number equals its PDF page number throughout; all page references below use those numbers.

Setting

Let XXX be the closed unit ball of Rd\mathbb R^dRd, where d>0d>0d>0, and let the label set be Y={−1,1}Y=\{-1,1\}Y={−1,1}. A distribution PPP on X×YX\times YX×Y has input marginal μ=PX\mu=P_Xμ=PX​ and a measurable regression function η(x)=P(y=1∣x)\eta(x)=P(y=1\mid x)η(x)=P(y=1∣x). In the Lean representation, μ\muμ and one version of η\etaη are carried explicitly; the joint law gives conditional masses η(x)\eta(x)η(x) and 1−η(x)1-\eta(x)1−η(x) to the two labels. Classification predicts sign⁡f(x)\operatorname{sign}f(x)signf(x), with sign⁡(0)=1\operatorname{sign}(0)=1sign(0)=1. Write RP(f)R_P(f)RP​(f) for its error probability and RPR_PRP​ for the smallest such risk over measurable decision functions.

The hinge loss is ℓ(y,t)=max⁡{0,1−yt}\ell(y,t)=\max\{0,1-yt\}ℓ(y,t)=max{0,1−yt}. The Gaussian kernel with parameter σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 is kσ(x,x′)=exp⁡(−σ2∥x−x′∥2)k_\sigma(x,x')=\exp(-\sigma^2\|x-x'\|^2)kσ​(x,x′)=exp(−σ2∥x−x′∥2), and Hσ(X)H_\sigma(X)Hσ​(X) is its restricted RKHS. Given a sample TTT of size nnn, an SVM without offset minimizes λ∥f∥Hσ(X)2+Rℓ,T(f)\lambda\|f\|^2_{H_\sigma(X)}+R_{\ell,T}(f)λ∥f∥Hσ​(X)2​+Rℓ,T​(f) over that space. The approximation error aσ(λ)a_\sigma(\lambda)aσ​(λ) is the infimum of the corresponding population objective minus the unrestricted Bayes hinge risk; equation (6) uses that unrestricted baseline.

Two assumptions describe the distribution. It has Tsybakov noise exponent q∈[0,∞]q\in[0,\infty]q∈[0,∞] if, for sufficiently small t>0t>0t>0, μ{∣2η−1∣≤t}≤Ctq\mu\{|2\eta-1|\le t\}\le C t^qμ{∣2η−1∣≤t}≤Ctq for some C>0C>0C>0. To define geometric noise exponent α>0\alpha>0α>0, partition XXX according to whether η\etaη is below, above, or equal to 1/21/21/2. The distance τx\tau_xτx​ goes from a point in either strict class to the opposite strict class together with the equal-probability class. The geometric condition is

∫X∣2η(x)−1∣exp⁡(−τx2/t) dμ(x)≤Ctαd/2(t>0).\int_X |2\eta(x)-1|\exp(-\tau_x^2/t)\,d\mu(x) \le C t^{\alpha d/2}\qquad(t>0).∫X​∣2η(x)−1∣exp(−τx2​/t)dμ(x)≤Ctαd/2(t>0).

These are Definitions 2.2 and 2.3 and equation (7) of the paper.

Formalization targets

The goal is the finite-α\alphaα, no-offset clause of Theorem 2.8. With the paper's two-case exponent β=β(α,q)\beta=\beta(\alpha,q)β=β(α,q), set λn=n−(α+1)β/α\lambda_n=n^{-(\alpha+1)\beta/\alpha}λn​=n−(α+1)β/α and σn=nβ/(αd)\sigma_n=n^{\beta/(\alpha d)}σn​=nβ/(αd). For every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, one constant C>0C>0C>0 works uniformly for x≥1x\ge1x≥1 and n≥1n\ge1n≥1:

Pr⁡∗ ⁣{T:RP(fT,λn)≤RP+Cx2n−β+ε}≥1−e−x.\Pr^*\!\left\{T:R_P(f_{T,\lambda_n}) \le R_P+C x^2n^{-\beta+\varepsilon}\right\}\ge1-e^{-x}.Pr∗{T:RP​(fT,λn​​)≤RP​+Cx2n−β+ε}≥1−e−x.

Here Pr⁡∗\Pr^*Pr∗ is outer probability, and the statement applies to every empirical minimizer. The formula for β\betaβ is α/(2α+1)\alpha/(2\alpha+1)α/(2α+1) in the first case, α≤(q+2)/(2q)\alpha\le(q+2)/(2q)α≤(q+2)/(2q), and 2α(q+1)/(2α(q+2)+3q+4)2\alpha(q+1)/(2\alpha(q+2)+3q+4)2α(q+1)/(2α(q+2)+3q+4) otherwise; the paper's limiting convention specifies q=∞q=\inftyq=∞.

Three milestones record results used on this path. Theorem 2.1 bounds empirical covering numbers of Gaussian RKHS balls, uniformly in σ\sigmaσ and the sample. Lemma 4.1 locates balls of radius τx\tau_xτx​ inside the corresponding enlarged decision class. Theorem 2.7 bounds the approximation error by

aσ(λ)≤cd(σdλ+C(2d)αd/2σ−αd),a_\sigma(\lambda)\le c_d\bigl(\sigma^d\lambda+C(2d)^{\alpha d/2}\sigma^{-\alpha d}\bigr),aσ​(λ)≤cd​(σdλ+C(2d)αd/2σ−αd),

where cdc_dcd​ depends only on dimension. Their exact source text and page positions appear in the milestone list.

Significance

Theorem 2.8 gives a quantitative guarantee for classification risk, rather than only convergence of the regularized hinge objective. The rate responds to both the label-noise exponent and the concentration of input mass near the decision boundary. In the regimes discussed after the theorem, the exponent can approach one; the paper's Remark 2.9 compares it with the n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 benchmark.

Formalizing this result adds a concrete Gaussian RKHS norm compatible with a kernel parameter that changes with nnn, an explicit binary-law model, extended-valued risks and covering numbers, and source-indexed bounds on approximation and complexity. Those objects can be reused in later SVM and kernel-learning statements. The paper's argument is a published proof; the Lean theorem files here are open proof obligations, while the definition files have compiled bodies. No claim of a machine-checked proof of the rate is made.

Difficulty

It is not enough to combine a general consistency theorem with the noise assumptions. The kernel parameter grows with sample size, so the relevant hypothesis class changes with nnn; a complexity estimate for one fixed class gives no uniform rate. Geometric noise controls approximation error, while Tsybakov noise controls a different fluctuation quantity, and neither by itself supplies the stated exponent. The probability statement also concerns an event defined by empirical minimizers, whose measurability the source deliberately avoids by using outer probability. These are the points at which a direct fixed-class or ordinary-probability statement would fail to match Theorem 2.8.

Formalization scope

Lean represents functions on all of Rd\mathbb R^dRd but uses only their restrictions to XXX. The joint distribution is built from a probability marginal and a fixed measurable η:Rd→[0,1]\eta:\mathbb R^d\to[0,1]η:Rd→[0,1]. This makes the paper's choice of regression-function version explicit. The Gaussian RKHS squared norm is the supremum over finite normalized kernel-section combinations; it is +∞+\infty+∞ outside the RKHS. A covering number is the least positive finite cardinality of a cover with centers in the ambient empirical function space, or +∞+\infty+∞ if there is no such cover. Hinge and classification risks are extended nonnegative integrals, and Bayes risks range over measurable functions.

The assumptions d>0d>0d>0 and n≥1n\ge1n≥1 give the divisions and powers their intended domains. For q=∞q=\inftyq=∞, the small-ttt noise bound uses zero on the right, as in the source convention. The paper leaves distance to an empty set unstated; this mission pins d(x,∅)=0d(x,\varnothing)=0d(x,∅)=0. With the infinite-distance convention, Lemma 4.1 and Theorem 2.7 fail for a one-class regression function. The proof display (25) has a volume-factor slip in high dimension; Theorem 2.7 is stated with its printed conclusion, and the issue is recorded in the moderation notes. The goal event includes existence of an empirical minimizer, a fact stated in the paper's setup, and quantifies over every minimizer. This excludes a vacuous SVM predicate. The constant CCC is chosen before xxx and nnn.

The clauses for α=∞\alpha=\inftyα=∞ and an SVM with offset are outside this mission. The separate series mission addresses the implication from an envelope assumption to geometric noise. Further contributions toward the §5 empirical-process estimates, §6 variance estimates, and §7 shrinking and general-rate theorems are welcome; they are not asserted as milestones in this draft.

Selected references

  • Ingo Steinwart and Clint Scovel, Fast Rates for Support Vector Machines Using Gaussian Kernels, Annals of Statistics 35(2), 2007, 575–607. arXiv:0708.1838v1, DOI:10.1214/009053606000001226.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Negative Dynamic Programming II: With Non-Positive Rewards on Borel Spaces, the Optimal Return Satisfies the Optimality EquationResearch Paper

Motivation

Negative dynamic programming is the study of infinite-horizon sequential decision problems in which every one-stage reward is non-positive and nothing is discounted. Equivalently, a non-negative cost accumulates forever and the controller minimizes its expected total. Stochastic shortest-path problems, optimal stopping with a cost per step, and inventory or replacement models without discounting all have this form. The total cost of a policy can be infinite, and none of the contraction arguments of discounted dynamic programming apply.

Blackwell settled the discounted case on Borel state and action spaces (Blackwell 1965). There the optimal return is Borel measurable and is the unique bounded solution of the optimality equation. Strauch's paper (Strauch 1966) treats the negative case on the same Borel model. One of its main results is that the optimal return still satisfies the optimality equation, even though it need not be Borel measurable.

Timeline. Blackwell (1965): discounted case, Borel spaces. Blackwell (1967, Positive dynamic programming): positive bounded case. Strauch (1966): negative case on Borel spaces. The optimal return is absolutely measurable, (p,ε)(p,\varepsilon)(p,ε)-optimal Markov policies exist, and the optimality equation holds. Bertsekas and Shreve (1978, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case) later recast the theory with universally measurable policies, a lower semianalytic optimal cost, and Bellman's equation J∗=T(J∗)J^* = T(J^*)J∗=T(J∗) under (P), (N) and (D).

Setting

The states SSS and actions AAA are non-empty Borel sets. A law of motion q(⋅∣s,a)q(\cdot\mid s,a)q(⋅∣s,a) is a probability kernel from S×AS\times AS×A to SSS. The return r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t) is a Borel function with −∞<r≤0-\infty < r \le 0−∞<r≤0 whose expectation ∫r(s,a,t) dq(t∣s,a)\int r(s,a,t)\,dq(t\mid s,a)∫r(s,a,t)dq(t∣s,a) is finite for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a). A policy π=(π1,π2,… )\pi = (\pi_1,\pi_2,\dots)π=(π1​,π2​,…) draws the nnnth action from a kernel πn(⋅∣s1,a1,…,sn)\pi_n(\cdot\mid s_1,a_1,\dots,s_n)πn​(⋅∣s1​,a1​,…,sn​) that may depend on the whole history. A Markov policy (f1,f2,… )(f_1,f_2,\dots)(f1​,f2​,…) uses measurable maps fn:S→Af_n:S\to Afn​:S→A, and a stationary policy f(∞)f^{(\infty)}f(∞) uses one map at every stage. The expected return from the initial state sss is

I(π)(s)=∑n≥1Esπ r(sn,an,sn+1)∈[−∞,0],I(\pi)(s) = \sum_{n\ge1} E^\pi_s\, r(s_n,a_n,s_{n+1}) \in [-\infty,0],I(π)(s)=n≥1∑​Esπ​r(sn​,an​,sn+1​)∈[−∞,0],

and the optimal return is

v∗(s)=sup⁡πI(π)(s),v^*(s) = \sup_\pi I(\pi)(s),v∗(s)=πsup​I(π)(s),

the supremum over all policies. Write M(S)M(S)M(S) for the non-positive, extended real-valued Borel functions on SSS. For u∈M(S)u\in M(S)u∈M(S) and an action aaa,

Tau(s)=∫[r(s,a,t)+u(t)] dq(t∣s,a).T_a u(s) = \int \big[r(s,a,t) + u(t)\big]\,dq(t\mid s,a).Ta​u(s)=∫[r(s,a,t)+u(t)]dq(t∣s,a).

TTT denotes the same operator for a measurable rule fff in place of aaa, and U=sup⁡nTnU = \sup_n T_nU=supn​Tn​ for a Markov policy (f1,f2,… )(f_1,f_2,\dots)(f1​,f2​,…). A policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is (p,ε)(p,\varepsilon)(p,ε)-optimal, for a probability ppp on SSS, if p{I(π∗)≥v∗−ε}=1p\{I(\pi^*) \ge v^* - \varepsilon\} = 1p{I(π∗)≥v∗−ε}=1. The Lean development uses the same names: Problem, I, In, vstar, T, Ta, U, IsPEOptimal, Conserves.

Formalization targets

Goal: the optimality equation (Theorem 8.2, negative case)

v∗(s)=sup⁡a∈ATav∗(s)for all s∈S.v^*(s) = \sup_{a\in A} T_a v^*(s) \qquad\text{for all } s\in S.v∗(s)=a∈Asup​Ta​v∗(s)for all s∈S.

The equation involves no constants and no regularity hypotheses on v∗v^*v∗.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 5.2 (a)–(g): monotonicity, translation, sup-, limit- and selection properties of UUU.
  2. Theorem 6.1: if Uv≥vUv\ge vUv≥v for v∈M(S)v\in M(S)v∈M(S), some Markov policy generated from π^\hat\piπ^ has I(π)≥v−εI(\pi)\ge v-\varepsilonI(π)≥v−ε.
  3. Lemma 6.2: UUU conserves sup⁡nI(nπ)\sup_n I({}^n\pi)supn​I(nπ) and lim⁡nUnsup⁡nI(nπ)\lim_n U^n \sup_n I({}^n\pi)limn​Unsupn​I(nπ).
  4. Theorem 6.2: one Markov policy comes within ε\varepsilonε of the supremum of the returns of countably many Markov policies.
  5. Lemma 7.1, Lemma 7.2: measurability of (s,ν)↦∫u(s,x) dν(x)(s,\nu)\mapsto\int u(s,x)\,d\nu(x)(s,ν)↦∫u(s,x)dν(x), and Borel measurability of the set of pairs (s,eπ(s))(s, e_\pi(s))(s,eπ​(s)), where eπ(s)e_\pi(s)eπ​(s) is the law of the future under π\piπ.
  6. Theorem 7.1: v∗v^*v∗ is absolutely measurable.
  7. Theorem 8.1: for every ppp and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 a (p,ε)(p,\varepsilon)(p,ε)-optimal Markov policy exists.

Optional extras: Corollary 6.1 and Theorems 6.3, 6.4, 6.5 and 8.4 (bounds and characterizations for Markov policies).

Significance

The result. The optimality equation is the entry point to every structural statement about optimal policies in the negative case. With it, a stationary policy whose rule attains the supremum in sup⁡aTav∗\sup_a T_a v^*supa​Ta​v∗ can be tested for optimality. Value iteration and policy improvement can be compared with v∗v^*v∗. The gap between the negative case and the discounted and positive cases can be located precisely: in the negative case v∗v^*v∗ satisfies the equation, but it need not be its unique or extremal solution. Along the way the paper proves that v∗v^*v∗ is absolutely measurable and that nearly optimal Markov policies exist for every initial distribution. These two facts are used repeatedly in later Borel-space dynamic programming.

Formalizing it. The results are proved; none is machine-checked. A formal development would contain the first Lean treatment of a total-reward Markov decision process on Borel spaces with possibly infinite returns. It would include the policy-dependent law of the future via Ionescu-Tulcea, the measurability of the optimal return over all randomized history-dependent policies, and the Bellman equation for a non-measurable value function. Bertsekas–Shreve's version of the optimality equation (universally measurable policies) appears on the platform as a separate open statement. It concerns a different policy class and is not the statement posed here.

Difficulty

Two steps of the obvious argument fail. First, the classical proof of the optimality equation picks, at each next state ttt, a policy that is ε\varepsilonε-optimal from ttt and concatenates. Without measurable selection this concatenation is not a policy. The set of ttt where a given policy is ε\varepsilonε-optimal need not be Borel, and v∗v^*v∗ itself need not be Borel measurable, so even ∫v∗ dq\int v^*\,dq∫v∗dq needs justification. Second, the contraction argument of the discounted case is unavailable. UUU does not contract, it conserves v+cv+cv+c along with vvv, and value iteration from 000 can converge to a function strictly above v∗v^*v∗. The paper's Example 6.1 shows that the limit of Un0U^n0Un0, the best return of generated Markov policies, and the best stationary return can all differ. Any argument has to work with policies that are only nearly optimal, and only outside sets of measure zero that depend on the initial distribution.

Formalization scope

  • States and actions are non-empty standard Borel types. Policies are the published Blackwell plans (DiscountedDP.Stationary.Plan): randomized and history-dependent, one Markov kernel per decision, with decisions numbered from 000 (Lean's π.κ n is the paper's πn+1\pi_{n+1}πn+1​). Markov policies are MarkovPlan; "π\piπ-generated" and G(π^)G(\hat\pi)G(π^) are the published IsGenerated and IsGeneratedPlan.
  • Only the negative case is formalized: r≤0r\le0r≤0 real-valued, qrqrqr integrable, β=1\beta=1β=1. The discounted and positive parts of Theorems 5.2, 7.1, 8.1 and 8.2, including the uniqueness and minimality clauses of Theorem 8.2, are not stated.
  • Returns take values in EReal and are computed as minus a lower Lebesgue integral (lintegral) of the non-negative loss. A Bochner integral is never used for a return: it would map −∞-\infty−∞ to 000 and make the goal false or vacuous.
  • v∗v^*v∗ is the supremum over all plans. It is not assumed measurable and is never replaced by a measurable modification. Tav∗T_a v^*Ta​v∗ is a lintegral of a possibly non-measurable function, which equals the completion integral because v∗v^*v∗ is absolutely measurable (Theorem 7.1).
  • Explicit readings of the page: the hypothesis u∈M(S)u\in M(S)u∈M(S) of each operator statement is IsNegM u. Theorem 5.2(b) assumes u+c∈M(S)u+c\in M(S)u+c∈M(S). "UUU conserves vvv" includes v∈M(S)v\in M(S)v∈M(S). Lemma 6.2 asserts that the limit defining vπv_\pivπ​ exists. Theorem 6.2 states ≥\ge≥ everywhere and >>> where sup⁡jI(πj)>−∞\sup_j I(\pi^j) > -\inftysupj​I(πj)>−∞ (the printed >>> fails where the supremum is −∞-\infty−∞). (p,ε)(p,\varepsilon)(p,ε)-optimality is "ppp-almost everywhere". Absolute measurability is NullMeasurable for every probability measure. P(X)P(X)P(X) carries the Giry σ-field. The extra Theorem 8.4 reads the printed "I(π)<uI(\pi) < uI(π)<u" as "≤\le≤" (the strict reading is false).
  • Reusable infrastructure: the negative model, the Ionescu-Tulcea law of the future (futureLaw), and the measurability lemmas for integrals against random measures. Contributions of measurable-selection and analytic-set results (projections of Borel sets are universally measurable; von Neumann selection) are welcome and needed.

Selected references

  • R. E. Strauch, Negative Dynamic Programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(4) (1966) 871–890. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • D. Blackwell, Discounted Dynamic Programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 36(1) (1965) 226–235. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • D. Blackwell, Positive Dynamic Programming, Proc. Fifth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 1 (1967) 415–418. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200512999
  • L. E. Dubins and L. J. Savage, How to Gamble If You Must, McGraw-Hill, 1965.
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978. https://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Gittins Index for Multiarmed Bandits 2: A Policy Falls Short of the Gittins Policy by at Most Its Expected Discounted Gap Between the Greatest Gittins Index and That of the Bandit It PlaysResearch Paper

Motivation

The multiarmed bandit problem asks how to allocate a single resource, one play at a time, among several alternative projects whose states evolve only when they are worked on. It models the scheduling of jobs on a single machine, the design of sequential clinical trials and many problems of research planning. Gittins and Jones showed that it is optimal to play, at each time, a project of greatest Gittins index, a number computed from that project alone (Gittins and Jones 1974; Gittins 1979).

In practice the Gittins index policy is often replaced by a heuristic: indices are computed approximately, or a policy is constrained by operational rules. A practitioner then needs to know how much value is lost. R. Weber's paper On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1992) gives a short proof of the index theorem through prevailing charges, and in its Section 5 derives from it two suboptimality bounds. This mission formalizes the second of them, Theorem 3, which bounds the loss of an arbitrary policy using Gittins indices only.

Timeline. Gittins and Jones (1974) and Gittins (1979) prove optimality of the index policy by an interchange argument; Whittle (1980) gives a proof by retirement options; Glazebrook (1982) bounds the suboptimality of policies in terms of Gittins indices, the bound Weber calls "usually weaker than (6)"; Glazebrook (1990) gives the prevailing-charge bound that is Weber's Theorem 2; Weber (1992) proves the index theorem by prevailing charges and states Theorems 2–4.

Setting

There are kkk bandit processes. Bandit iii has a state xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) in a state space SSS; at each epoch t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… the gambler plays one bandit j(t)j(t)j(t), receives a reward with mean r(xj(t)(t))r(x_{j(t)}(t))r(xj(t)​(t)), the state of bandit j(t)j(t)j(t) moves according to a Markov transition kernel PPP, and the states of all other bandits are unchanged. Rewards are nonnegative and uniformly bounded, and 0<β<10 < \beta < 10<β<1 is a discount factor. A policy π\piπ chooses j(t)j(t)j(t), possibly at random, as a function of everything observed so far. Its value from the initial state vector xxx is the expected total-discounted reward

Vπ(x)=Eπ[∑t=0∞βtr(xj(t)(t)) ∣ x(0)=x].(1)V_\pi(x) = E_\pi\Big[\sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t r\big(x_{j(t)}(t)\big) \,\Big|\, x(0) = x\Big]. \tag{1}Vπ​(x)=Eπ​[t=0∑∞​βtr(xj(t)​(t))​x(0)=x].(1)

The fair charge γ(y)\gamma(y)γ(y) of a state yyy is the largest ratio of expected discounted reward to expected discounted time that a stopping time τ≥1\tau \ge 1τ≥1 of a single bandit started at yyy can achieve,

γ(y)=sup⁡τ≥1E[∑t=0τ−1βtr(x(t))∣x(0)=y]E[∑t=0τ−1βt∣x(0)=y],\gamma(y) = \sup_{\tau \ge 1} \frac{E\big[\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}\beta^t r(x(t)) \mid x(0)=y\big]}{E\big[\sum_{t=0}^{\tau-1}\beta^t \mid x(0)=y\big]},γ(y)=τ≥1sup​E[∑t=0τ−1​βt∣x(0)=y]E[∑t=0τ−1​βtr(x(t))∣x(0)=y]​,

and Weber's Gittins index is G(y)=γ(y)/(1−β)G(y) = \gamma(y)/(1-\beta)G(y)=γ(y)/(1−β). A Gittins index policy π∗\pi^*π∗ plays, at every epoch, a bandit with the greatest index, ties broken arbitrarily. Theorem 1 of the paper, already formalized on Prove2Me as BanditAlgorithm.gittins_index_theorem, states that every Gittins index policy maximizes Vπ(x)V_\pi(x)Vπ​(x).

The model, the fair charge and the Gittins index policy are the published GittinsIndex definitions of Shuze Chen, and the history truncation used to write round expectations is from Harry_Xu's GittinsTerminalPotential.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

For a Gittins index policy π∗\pi^*π∗, every policy π\piπ and every initial state vector xxx,

Vπ∗(x)−Vπ(x)≤Eπ[∑t=0∞βt(max⁡iGi(xi(t))−Gj(t)(xj(t)(t))) | x(0)=x].(7)V_{\pi^*}(x) - V_\pi(x) \le E_\pi\left[\sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t\Big(\max_i G_i\big(x_i(t)\big) - G_{j(t)}\big(x_{j(t)}(t)\big)\Big) \,\middle|\, x(0)=x\right]. \tag{7}Vπ∗​(x)−Vπ​(x)≤Eπ​[t=0∑∞​βt(imax​Gi​(xi​(t))−Gj(t)​(xj(t)​(t)))​x(0)=x].(7)

The right-hand side is computed along the trajectory of π\piπ alone: in each epoch it charges the gap between the greatest index and the index of the bandit π\piπ actually plays.

Milestones

The proof compares, for each ttt, two policies built from π\piπ: π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t), identical to π\piπ before time ttt and a Gittins index policy from ttt on, and π(t)\pi(t)π(t), identical to π\piπ up to and including time ttt, which then continues playing j(t)j(t)j(t) until its fair charge drops below its value at time ttt and is a Gittins index policy thereafter.

  1. Switching to Gittins later never hurts. If σ′\sigma'σ′ is identical to σ\sigmaσ through time ttt and a Gittins index policy from t+1t+1t+1 on, then Vσ(x)≤Vσ′(x)V_\sigma(x) \le V_{\sigma'}(x)Vσ​(x)≤Vσ′​(x); in particular Vπ(t)(x)≤Vπ∗(t+1)(x)V_{\pi(t)}(x) \le V_{\pi^*(t+1)}(x)Vπ(t)​(x)≤Vπ∗(t+1)​(x).
  2. Equation (8).
Vπ∗(t)(x)−Vπ(t)(x)≤βtEπ[max⁡iγi(xi(t))−γj(t)(xj(t)(t))1−β | x(0)=x].V_{\pi^*(t)}(x) - V_{\pi(t)}(x) \le \beta^t E_\pi\left[\frac{\max_i \gamma_i(x_i(t)) - \gamma_{j(t)}(x_{j(t)}(t))}{1-\beta} \,\middle|\, x(0)=x\right].Vπ∗(t)​(x)−Vπ(t)​(x)≤βtEπ​[1−βmaxi​γi​(xi​(t))−γj(t)​(xj(t)​(t))​​x(0)=x].

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 turns any per-epoch guarantee about the index of the bandit played into a guarantee on value. If a policy always plays a bandit whose Gittins index is within ε\varepsilonε of the greatest, it loses at most ε/(1−β)\varepsilon/(1-\beta)ε/(1−β); this is the form in which index heuristics, approximate index computations and constrained index policies are analysed. The open Prove2Me goal AllocationIndices.eps_index_policy_near_optimal (Gittins, Glazebrook and Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, Theorem 4.18, after Glazebrook 1982) is a bound of this kind for ε\varepsilonε-index policies and follows from (7); it is a separate item and is not part of this mission. Unlike Theorem 2 of the same paper, the bound (7) involves only Gittins indices, not prevailing charges or rewards.

Formalizing it. Theorem 3 is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. The mission produces a formal statement of the bound on top of the published Markov bandit model and Theorem 1, together with the two intermediate statements of Weber's proof, which have uses of their own: optimality of switching to the index policy after any finite prefix of play is the dynamic-programming form of the index theorem.

Difficulty

The informal proof is half a page, and its key sentence is that the difference of the charges paid by π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t) and π(t)\pi(t)π(t) at any later time is never more than the gap at time ttt. Making it rigorous requires the value-to-go of a history-dependent randomized policy after a fixed time, the fact that both policies from time ttt on are fair games in which expected discounted reward equals expected discounted charge, and a pathwise comparison of two interleavings of charge sequences. The naive reading, that π(t)\pi(t)π(t) loses only the single epoch ttt, is wrong: playing j(t)j(t)j(t) at time ttt commits the policy to a whole run of j(t)j(t)j(t), and the bound accounts for the entire run through the factor 1/(1−β)1/(1-\beta)1/(1−β). Telescoping (8) over ttt also needs Vπ∗(t)(x)→Vπ(x)V_{\pi^*(t)}(x) \to V_\pi(x)Vπ∗(t)​(x)→Vπ​(x) as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞, which rests on bounded rewards and β<1\beta < 1β<1.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the published BanditAlgorithm model, in which all bandits share one state space SSS (a standard Borel space), one kernel PPP and one reward rrr; Weber's bandits with different state spaces are encoded by taking the disjoint union. Time is 0-indexed in both. The committed readings of the paper's phrases are:

  • "π∗\pi^*π∗ is the optimal (Gittins) policy" is any policy satisfying IsGittinsIndexPolicy; it is not assumed to be built from π\piπ.
  • Rj(xj(t))R_j(x_j(t))Rj​(xj​(t)) is represented by its conditional mean r(xj(t))r(x_j(t))r(xj​(t)), and "Eπ[∑tβt⋯ ]E_\pi[\sum_t \beta^t \cdots]Eπ​[∑t​βt⋯]" by the series of per-epoch expectations ∑tβtEπ[⋯ ]\sum_t \beta^t E_\pi[\cdots]∑t​βtEπ​[⋯], the published value convention.
  • The index in (7) is G=γ/(1−β)G = \gamma/(1-\beta)G=γ/(1−β) (weberIndex), and (8) is written with γ\gammaγ (gittinsIndex) divided by 1−β1-\beta1−β, as on the page.
  • π∗(t)\pi^*(t)π∗(t) and π(t)\pi(t)π(t) are predicates on a policy (IsSwitchToGittinsAt, IsRunThenGittinsAt), and (8) is stated for every pair of policies satisfying them. "Identical to π\piπ for times less than ttt" is rounds n<tn < tn<t; "plays j(t)j(t)j(t) at time ttt" and "identical through time ttt" are rounds n≤tn \le tn≤t. "Drops below" is strict.
  • The standing assumptions of Section 1 (nonnegative, uniformly bounded rewards and 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1) are hypotheses of every theorem, as are measurability of rrr and of y↦γ(y)y \mapsto \gamma(y)y↦γ(y), which the paper takes for granted.

Using the fair charge γ\gammaγ in place of GGG in (7) would make the bound false by the factor 1−β1-\beta1−β; dropping the measurability of γ\gammaγ would let the expectation degenerate to 000 and make the bound claim that every policy is optimal. Neither is the statement posed here, and a constant-index or one-armed instance, where both sides vanish, only checks that the hypotheses are satisfiable.

Theorem 1 is referenced, not posed. Theorem 2 (the prevailing-charge bound) and Theorem 4 (submodularity of the optimal value in the set of bandits) are missions 1 and 3 of this series; this mission does not depend on them. Weber's definition of an index consistent policy (p. 1028) is not formalized here: the proof of (8) needs the fair-game property in the form of Remark 2 (continue while the fair charge exceeds the prevailing charge), which differs from the definition's "initial value" after an interruption. Contributions welcome: a measurable greatest-index selection, value-to-go decompositions for history-dependent policies, and the fair-game identity for index-consistent play are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Weber, On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(4), 1024–1033, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005588
  • J. C. Gittins, Bandit processes and dynamic allocation indices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 41(2), 148–177, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01068.x
  • K. D. Glazebrook, Procedures for the evaluation of strategies for resource allocation in a stochastic environment, Journal of Applied Probability 27, 215–220, 1990.
  • J. C. Gittins and D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani et al., eds.), North-Holland, 241–266, 1974.
  • P. Whittle, Multi-armed bandits and the Gittins index, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 42(2), 143–149, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01111.x
  • K. D. Glazebrook, On the evaluation of suboptimal strategies for families of alternative bandit processes, Journal of Applied Probability 19, 716–722, 1982.
  • J. C. Gittins, K. D. Glazebrook and R. Weber, Multi-armed Bandit Allocation Indices, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470980033
  • T. Lattimore and Cs. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 35. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Bandit AlgorithmsDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Short Proof of the Gittins Index Theorem: For Finite-State Semi-Markov Bandits, Every Priority Policy Ordering States by the Index Algorithm's Indices Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

The multi-armed bandit problem with discounted rewards asks how to allocate effort among nnn independent projects, only one of which can be worked on at a time, when the project worked on evolves randomly and the others stay frozen. It models job scheduling, research planning, search, and sequential clinical experimentation. Gittins and Jones showed in 1974 that the problem has an index solution: each state of each project has a number, computed from that project alone, and it is optimal always to work on the project whose current state has the largest number. The result turns an nnn-dimensional dynamic program into nnn one-dimensional computations.

Several proofs followed, each with its own model and its own definition of the index:

  • Gittins and Jones (1974) and Gittins (1979): the original interchange proofs, with the index as a supremum over stopping times of a reward-to-time ratio.
  • Whittle (1980): a proof through the retirement option and the dynamic-programming equation of the multi-armed problem.
  • Varaiya, Walrand and Buyukkoc (1985): the largest-remaining-index algorithm for finite-state Markov bandits, which computes the indices by removing states one at a time.
  • Weber (1992): the "prevailing charge" proof.
  • Tsitsiklis (1994): the short proof formalized here, for semi-Markov bandits with finite state spaces, by induction on the total number of states, with the indices produced by an index algorithm of the largest-remaining-index type.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 bandit processes. Bandit iii has a finite nonempty state space Xi\mathcal X_iXi​, and X=X1∪⋯∪Xn\mathcal X=\mathcal X_1\cup\cdots\cup\mathcal X_nX=X1​∪⋯∪Xn​ is their disjoint union. When bandit iii at state x∈Xix\in\mathcal X_ix∈Xi​ is played, a random reward R(x)R(x)R(x) is received, the bandit is busy for a random time T(x)≥0T(x)\ge0T(x)≥0, and it then moves to a random state Y(x)∈XiY(x)\in\mathcal X_iY(x)∈Xi​; the other bandits do not move. The joint law of (T(x),R(x),Y(x))(T(x),R(x),Y(x))(T(x),R(x),Y(x)) depends only on xxx, and different plays are independent.

A policy is a map π:X1×⋯×Xn→{1,…,n}\pi:\mathcal X_1\times\cdots\times\mathcal X_n\to\{1,\dots,n\}π:X1​×⋯×Xn​→{1,…,n}: at time zero and at every play completion time it chooses the bandit to play from the current states. With tit_iti​ the start time and RiR_iRi​ the reward of the iii-th play and a discount rate β>0\beta>0β>0, the expected discounted reward from the initial joint state zzz is

Jπ(z)=E[∑i=1∞Rie−βti].J_\pi(z)=\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}R_i e^{-\beta t_i}\Big].Jπ​(z)=E[i=1∑∞​Ri​e−βti​].

A policy is optimal if it maximizes Jπ(z)J_\pi(z)Jπ​(z) for every initial state zzz. A priority rule is a policy for which some ordering of X\mathcal XX makes it always play the bandit whose current state is ordered highest.

The reward rate of a state is

r(x)=E[R(x)]E[∫0T(x)e−βt dt].(2.1)r(x)=\frac{\mathbb E[R(x)]}{\mathbb E\big[\int_0^{T(x)}e^{-\beta t}\,dt\big]}. \tag{2.1}r(x)=E[∫0T(x)​e−βtdt]E[R(x)]​.(2.1)

Reducing bandit i∗i^*i∗ by removing a state s∗s^*s∗ merges every play that ends in s∗s^*s∗ with the following run of plays at s∗s^*s∗ into one composite play, whose reward rate is r^(x)\hat r(x)r^(x) of (2.3). The index algorithm repeatedly picks a state s∗s^*s∗ of maximal current rate, sets its index γ(s∗)\gamma(s^*)γ(s∗) to that rate, and reduces its bandit by removing s∗s^*s∗ (or removes the bandit if s∗s^*s∗ was its last state).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2

Let γ\gammaγ be the indices of a run of the index algorithm. Then every priority rule whose ordering satisfies

γ(y)<γ(x) ⟹ y is ordered below x\gamma(y)<\gamma(x)\ \Longrightarrow\ y \text{ is ordered below } xγ(y)<γ(x) ⟹ y is ordered below x

is optimal. Ties in γ\gammaγ may be ordered either way, and the run may break ties in its own choices arbitrarily.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. (2.2), the interchange inequality E[(1−e−βτ)∫0T(s∗)r(s∗)e−βtdt]≥E[(1−e−βT(s∗))∫0τrˉ(t)e−βtdt]\mathbb E\big[(1-e^{-\beta\tau})\int_0^{T(s^*)}r(s^*)e^{-\beta t}dt\big]\ge\mathbb E\big[(1-e^{-\beta T(s^*)})\int_0^{\tau}\bar r(t)e^{-\beta t}dt\big]E[(1−e−βτ)∫0T(s∗)​r(s∗)e−βtdt]≥E[(1−e−βT(s∗))∫0τ​rˉ(t)e−βtdt] when rˉ≤r(s∗)\bar r\le r(s^*)rˉ≤r(s∗).
  2. Lemma 2.1: if r(s∗)=max⁡xr(x)r(s^*)=\max_{x}r(x)r(s∗)=maxx​r(x), some optimal policy always plays bandit i∗i^*i∗ when it is at s∗s^*s∗.
  3. Reduction step: optimizing within the policies giving s∗s^*s∗ top priority is a bandit problem with one state fewer, the reduced bandit with rates (2.3).
  4. Theorem 2.1: some priority rule is optimal.
  5. Pick-order optimality: a priority rule that orders the states as a run of the index algorithm picks them is optimal.
  6. Index monotonicity: along a run, γ(s∗)≥γ(q∗)\gamma(s^*)\ge\gamma(q^*)γ(s∗)≥γ(q∗) for consecutive picks s∗,q∗s^*,q^*s∗,q∗.
  7. Picked-before characterization: xxx can be picked before yyy (in a run with the same indices) if and only if γ(x)≥γ(y)\gamma(x)\ge\gamma(y)γ(x)≥γ(y).

Significance

The theorem shows that the optimal priority order is determined by numbers that, by the reduction formulas, depend only on the statistics of each bandit separately. It is the basis of index policies in scheduling (the cμc\mucμ rule and its semi-Markov generalizations), of Klimov's problem and of branching bandits, which the paper's Section 3 obtains by modifying the same argument.

The result has been proved many times, but not in this generality on Prove2Me. The platform has a discrete-time Gittins index theorem for arms sharing one transition kernel and one reward function, with the index defined as a stopping-time supremum. This mission adds semi-Markov dynamics with random play durations and continuous discounting, heterogeneous finite bandits, priority rules, and the index algorithm as the definition of the index. A complete development would also give a machine-checked proof of correctness of a state-elimination algorithm for computing Gittins indices.

Difficulty

Lemma 2.1 compares an optimal stationary policy with a modified policy that is not stationary, and closes the gap by the optimality of stationary policies, which itself requires the dynamic-programming theory of discounted semi-Markov decision problems with finite state spaces. The reduction step requires an exact identification of the values of all top-priority policies with values in a different problem whose plays are composite and may never end. Theorem 2.1 is an induction over a family of problems with shrinking state spaces that are no longer raw semi-Markov bandits. Theorem 2.2 adds ties: a priority order compatible with the indices need not be the order of the given run, and one needs another run with the same indices.

Formalization scope

  • Bandits are indexed by Fin n (0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1), with n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and each state type finite and nonempty. X\mathcal XX is the sigma type Σ i, X i, disjoint by construction.
  • The law of (T(x),R(x),Y(x))(T(x),R(x),Y(x))(T(x),R(x),Y(x)) is a probability measure on R×R×Xi\mathbb R\times\mathbb R\times\mathcal X_iR×R×Xi​ with T≥0T\ge0T≥0 almost surely and RRR integrable. The model also assumes P(T(x)>0)>0\mathbb P(T(x)>0)>0P(T(x)>0)>0, which the page leaves implicit: it makes the denominator of (2.1) nonzero.
  • JπJ_\piJπ​ is computed from the moments E[R(x)]\mathbb E[R(x)]E[R(x)] and D(x,y)=E[e−βT(x);Y(x)=y]D(x,y)=\mathbb E[e^{-\beta T(x)};Y(x)=y]D(x,y)=E[e−βT(x);Y(x)=y]: it is the limit of the expected discounted reward of the first kkk plays, given by the first-step recursion. No path space is constructed. The row sums of DDD are below 111, so the limit exists; it never mentions rates, indices or reductions.
  • Policies are the paper's stationary deterministic maps of the current joint state, and optimality is within that class, for every initial state. An ordering of X\mathcal XX is an injective ranking into N\mathbb NN.
  • The reduced bandit is given by explicit formulas for its expected discounted reward, discounted duration and discounted transition data. These make the page's "transition probabilities are suitably modified" concrete, and the reduced rate is (2.3). Removing a bandit is the reduction of its last state.
  • The index is that of any run of the index algorithm, with arbitrary tie choices.

A formalization in which the value of a policy is defined through rates or indices, or in which γ\gammaγ is any function compatible with some order rather than the output of the algorithm, would make the goal trivial or empty; both are excluded by the definitions above.

Needed infrastructure: the convergence of the kkk-play values and the first-step (Bellman) equation for JπJ_\piJπ​; existence of an optimal stationary policy for finite discounted semi-Markov problems; the value identity for composite plays. The last two are reusable for any finite semi-Markov decision problem. Proofs of individual milestones, alternative arguments (Weber's prevailing charge, the retirement formulation), and the separability statement of p. 198 ("the index algorithm can be carried out separately for each different bandit") are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. N. Tsitsiklis, A Short Proof of the Gittins Index Theorem, Annals of Applied Probability 4(1) (1994), 194–199.
  • J. C. Gittins and D. M. Jones, A dynamic allocation index for the sequential design of experiments, in Progress in Statistics (J. Gani et al., eds.), North-Holland, 1974, 241–266.
  • J. C. Gittins, Bandit processes and dynamic allocation indices, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 41 (1979), 148–177. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01068.x
  • P. Whittle, Multi-armed bandits and the Gittins index, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B 42 (1980), 143–149. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1980.tb01111.x
  • P. P. Varaiya, J. C. Walrand and C. Buyukkoc, Extensions of the multiarmed bandit problem: the discounted case, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 30 (1985), 426–439. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.1985.1103989
  • R. Weber, On the Gittins index for multiarmed bandits, Annals of Applied Probability 2(4) (1992), 1024–1033. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005588
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On Finding Optimal Policies in Discrete Dynamic Programming with No Discounting 2: f Maximizes Gain and Then Bias Exactly When Its Averaged Finite-Horizon Returns Dominate Every Stationary Policy'sResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision process with finitely many states and actions is usually run either with a discount factor β<1\beta<1β<1 or under the long-run average criterion. Without discounting, the total return over an infinite horizon is typically infinite, and the average return per period ignores everything that happens in any finite stretch of time: two policies with equal gain (average return per period) can differ by a fixed amount of income forever, and the average criterion cannot tell them apart. Finer, undiscounted criteria that break such ties are a standard topic of the MDP literature (Puterman, Markov Decision Processes, Ch. 10), and the paper of this mission is one of their starting points.

Timeline. Howard (1960) introduced policy iteration for the average-return problem. Blackwell (1962) expanded the discounted return of a stationary policy near β=1\beta=1β=1 as x(f)/(1−β)+y(f)+o(1)x(f)/(1-\beta)+y(f)+o(1)x(f)/(1−β)+y(f)+o(1), defined 1-optimal ("nearly optimal") policies, and showed that the stationary 1-optimal policies are exactly those that maximize the gain x(f)x(f)x(f) and then the bias y(f)y(f)y(f). Veinott (1966), the source of this mission, gave a finite algorithm for such policies and, in §5, a characterization of the same set by an undiscounted criterion: comparing the Cesàro averages of the finite-horizon total returns. Later work (Veinott 1969) developed the hierarchy of nnn-discount optimality criteria from this starting point.

Setting

There are finitely many states sss and a finite set of actions; in state sss, action aaa earns the income i(s,a)i(s,a)i(s,a) and moves the system to state s′s's′ with probability q(s′∣s,a)q(s'\mid s,a)q(s′∣s,a). A decision rule f∈Ff\in Ff∈F chooses an action f(s)f(s)f(s) in each state; r(f)r(f)r(f) is the vector with entries i(s,f(s))i(s,f(s))i(s,f(s)), and Q(f)Q(f)Q(f) is the Markov matrix with entries q(s′∣s,f(s))q(s'\mid s,f(s))q(s′∣s,f(s)). A policy is a sequence π=(f1,f2,… )\pi=(f_1,f_2,\dots)π=(f1​,f2​,…) of decision rules, Qn(π)=Q(f1)⋯Q(fn)Q_n(\pi)=Q(f_1)\cdots Q(f_n)Qn​(π)=Q(f1​)⋯Q(fn​) with Q0(π)=IQ_0(\pi)=IQ0​(π)=I, and f∞=(f,f,… )f^\infty=(f,f,\dots)f∞=(f,f,…) is the stationary policy that uses fff every period.

The limit matrix Q∗(f)=lim⁡N→∞N−1∑i=0N−1Q(f)iQ^*(f)=\lim_{N\to\infty}N^{-1}\sum_{i=0}^{N-1}Q(f)^iQ∗(f)=limN→∞​N−1∑i=0N−1​Q(f)i exists for every Markov matrix. The gain and bias of fff are

x(f)=Q∗(f) r(f),y(f)=H(f) r(f),H(f)=(I−Q(f)+Q∗(f))−1−Q∗(f).x(f)=Q^*(f)\,r(f),\qquad y(f)=H(f)\,r(f),\qquad H(f)=\bigl(I-Q(f)+Q^*(f)\bigr)^{-1}-Q^*(f).x(f)=Q∗(f)r(f),y(f)=H(f)r(f),H(f)=(I−Q(f)+Q∗(f))−1−Q∗(f).

Vectors are compared coordinatewise. The decision rules of maximal gain form

F′={f∈F:x(f)≥x(g) for all g∈F},F'=\{f\in F: x(f)\ge x(g)\text{ for all }g\in F\},F′={f∈F:x(f)≥x(g) for all g∈F},

and those of maximal bias among them form

F′′={f∈F′:y(f)≥y(g) for all g∈F′}.F''=\{f\in F': y(f)\ge y(g)\text{ for all }g\in F'\}.F′′={f∈F′:y(f)≥y(g) for all g∈F′}.

Finally, the nnn-period total expected return of a policy π\piπ, starting from each state, is

Vn(π)=∑i=0n−1Qi(π) r(fi+1).V^n(\pi)=\sum_{i=0}^{n-1}Q_i(\pi)\,r(f_{i+1}).Vn(π)=i=0∑n−1​Qi​(π)r(fi+1​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7

For every f∈Ff\in Ff∈F,

f∈F′′  ⟺  lim⁡N→∞1N∑n=1N[Vn(f∞)−Vn(g∞)] ≥ 0for all g∈F,f\in F''\iff \lim_{N\to\infty}\frac1N\sum_{n=1}^{N}\bigl[V^n(f^\infty)-V^n(g^\infty)\bigr]\ \ge\ 0\quad\text{for all }g\in F,f∈F′′⟺N→∞lim​N1​n=1∑N​[Vn(f∞)−Vn(g∞)] ≥ 0for all g∈F,

where the inequality is coordinatewise and the limit is taken in [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞].

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3 (Blackwell): Vβ(f∞)=x(f)/(1−β)+y(f)+ε(β,f)V_\beta(f^\infty)=x(f)/(1-\beta)+y(f)+\varepsilon(\beta,f)Vβ​(f∞)=x(f)/(1−β)+y(f)+ε(β,f) with ε(β,f)→0\varepsilon(\beta,f)\to0ε(β,f)→0 as β→1−\beta\to1^-β→1−, where x(f)x(f)x(f) and y(f)y(f)y(f) are the unique solutions of [I−Q(f)]x=0, Q∗(f)x=Q∗(f)r(f)[I-Q(f)]x=0,\ Q^*(f)x=Q^*(f)r(f)[I−Q(f)]x=0, Q∗(f)x=Q∗(f)r(f) and [I−Q(f)]y=r(f)−x(f), Q∗(f)y=0[I-Q(f)]y=r(f)-x(f),\ Q^*(f)y=0[I−Q(f)]y=r(f)−x(f), Q∗(f)y=0.
  2. The nnn-step identity (p. 1293): y(f)=Vn(f∞)−n x(f)+Q(f)ny(f)y(f)=V^n(f^\infty)-n\,x(f)+Q(f)^n y(f)y(f)=Vn(f∞)−nx(f)+Q(f)ny(f) for every nnn.
  3. (27): y(f)=lim⁡N→∞N−1∑n=1N[Vn(f∞)−n x(f)]y(f)=\lim_{N\to\infty}N^{-1}\sum_{n=1}^N[V^n(f^\infty)-n\,x(f)]y(f)=limN→∞​N−1∑n=1N​[Vn(f∞)−nx(f)].
  4. (28): N−1∑n=1NVn(f∞)=N+12x(f)+y(f)+σ(N,f)N^{-1}\sum_{n=1}^N V^n(f^\infty)=\tfrac{N+1}{2}x(f)+y(f)+\sigma(N,f)N−1∑n=1N​Vn(f∞)=2N+1​x(f)+y(f)+σ(N,f) with σ(N,f)→0\sigma(N,f)\to0σ(N,f)→0.
  5. Theorem 4 (Blackwell): F′′F''F′′ is nonempty and is exactly the set of fff for which f∞f^\inftyf∞ is 1-optimal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7 gives the set F′′F''F′′, defined through the discount-factor expansion, an interpretation that involves no discounting at all: f∞f^\inftyf∞ maximizes gain and then bias exactly when, from every starting state, its Cesàro-averaged finite-horizon returns are in the limit at least those of every other stationary policy. Combined with Theorem 4 it identifies the stationary 1-optimal policies with the stationary policies that are optimal under this average-overtaking comparison. The paper records a consequence (an optimal policy in the average-overtaking sense (26) that is stationary is 1-optimal) and conjectures the converse; that remark and conjecture are not part of this mission.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper (Theorems 3 and 4 are Blackwell's). None of them is formalized: the Blackwell expansion (Theorem 3) is an open item on Prove2Me, referenced here, and Theorem 4, the nnn-step identity, (27), (28) and Theorem 7 have no machine-checked proof. A complete development gives the first formal treatment of Cesàro-averaged finite-horizon returns of a finite MDP and their relation to gain and bias.

Difficulty

The paper calls Theorem 7 "an immediate consequence of the representation (28)". For the direction "the limit condition implies f∈F′′f\in F''f∈F′′" this is accurate: a state where x(f)<x(g)x(f)<x(g)x(f)<x(g) would drive the average to −∞-\infty−∞, so f∈F′f\in F'f∈F′, and then the constant terms give the bias comparison over F′F'F′. The converse is where the obvious argument stops. It must hold for every g∈Fg\in Fg∈F, including g∉F′g\notin F'g∈/F′; at a state where x(f)s=x(g)sx(f)_s=x(g)_sx(f)s​=x(g)s​ for such a ggg, (28) needs y(f)s≥y(g)sy(f)_s\ge y(g)_sy(f)s​≥y(g)s​, and the definition of F′′F''F′′ only compares biases with gain-maximal rules. That inequality comes from 1-optimality of f∞f^\inftyf∞ (Theorem 4) together with the expansion of Theorem 3, not from (28). Proving (27) itself requires the Cesàro convergence N−1∑n<NQ(f)n→Q∗(f)N^{-1}\sum_{n<N}Q(f)^n\to Q^*(f)N−1∑n<N​Q(f)n→Q∗(f) and the identity Q∗(f)y(f)=0Q^*(f)y(f)=0Q∗(f)y(f)=0, which rest on Blackwell's Lemma 1 about Markov matrices.

Formalization scope

The development builds on the published Lean model of Blackwell (1962): Model (states St, actions Act, incomes, transition law), Policy (indexed from 000, so π 0 is f1f_1f1​), Qn, V, IsNearlyOptimal (= 1-optimal), limitMatrix, and the closed forms x, y. Conventions:

  • State and action sets are finite and nonempty, and every action is available in every state (As=AA_s=AAs​=A).
  • Vectors are real functions on states with the pointwise order; limits of vectors are coordinatewise; limits in NNN are along the natural numbers. The Cesàro mean in limitMatrix uses N+1N+1N+1 terms rather than Veinott's NNN; the limit is the same.
  • x(f)x(f)x(f) and y(f)y(f)y(f) are their closed forms; Theorem 3 asserts they are the unique solutions of Veinott's (2) and (3).
  • 1-optimality is Blackwell's "nearly optimal", formulated without U(β)U(\beta)U(β), against all policies.
  • In Theorem 7 the limit is an extended-real limit, stated as: for every ggg and every state, the real sequence converges in [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞] to some L≥0L\ge0L≥0. A real-valued limit would make the statement false whenever x(f)s≠x(g)sx(f)_s\ne x(g)_sx(f)s​=x(g)s​; the comparison class is the stationary policies g∞g^\inftyg∞ only, and it must not be narrowed to g∈F′g\in F'g∈F′.

The shared module defines F′F'F′ and F′′F''F′′; this chunk defines Vn(π)V^n(\pi)Vn(π). Contributions are welcome for any milestone, and in particular for reusable lemmas about Cesàro means of powers of a Markov matrix, which the proofs of (27) and (28) and Blackwell's Lemma 1 share.

Selected references

  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., On Finding Optimal Policies in Discrete Dynamic Programming with No Discounting, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(5):1284–1294, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699272
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete Dynamic Programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, Wiley, New York, 1960.
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete Dynamic Programming with Sensitive Discount Optimality Criteria, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(5):1635–1660, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697379
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes IV: Critical-Level Ordering at Nondecreasing Myopic Levels ȳₘ Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm with one product may face several customer classes in each selling interval. When stock is scarce, it must decide which outstanding demands to satisfy and how much inventory to carry into later intervals. When new stock can be bought at several dates, the rationing choice also changes the value of future purchasing opportunities. Topkis studied these linked decisions in a nonstationary model with class-dependent shortage penalties and a finite number of ordering periods. His Theorem 4 identifies conditions under which a policy computed from each period's myopic cost is optimal in the full multiperiod problem Topkis 1968.

The result belongs to a line of work on critical-level policies: choose a stock target and order up to it if current stock is lower. Here the target can be computed one period at a time despite the possibility of future purchases and the separate question of how to ration stock among demand classes. The paper attributes a related myopic policy result to Veinott and explains that its own setting allows a more general rationing policy than the special zero-rationing-level case discussed there Topkis 1968, pp. 175–176. This mission formalizes Topkis's multiperiod statement, including its ordering and rationing conclusions.

Setting

There are NNN ordering periods, numbered 111 through NNN. Period mmm has a unit purchase cost cmc_mcm​. It contains kmk_mkm​ selling intervals, numbered backward: interval kmk_mkm​ is first and interval 111 is last. Within an interval, a random nonnegative demand vector has one component for each of nnn customer classes. The vectors in distinct intervals and periods are independent and each class has a finite mean. At the start of an interval the demand is observed. A decision then selects how much of each class's outstanding demand to leave unsatisfied. The remaining physical stock incurs a holding cost, and each unsatisfied unit incurs a class-specific penalty. Unsatisfied demand is either carried entirely to the next interval or lost entirely, according to the interval. Penalties are nonnegative and rise with class index, so class nnn has the highest shortage penalty Topkis 1968, pp. 162–163, 174.

Let www be net stock before ordering at the start of period mmm: physical stock minus outstanding backlogs. The order must clear the backlog, so the post-order stock zzz satisfies z≥w+=max⁡(w,0)z\ge w^+=\max(w,0)z≥w+=max(w,0). After period NNN, a further unit can be purchased for cN+1≥0c_{N+1}\ge0cN+1​≥0, while unused stock can be salvaged for revenue v≤cN+1v\le c_{N+1}v≤cN+1​. The terminal cost is CN+1(w)=(cN+1−v)w+C_{N+1}(w)=(c_{N+1}-v)w^+CN+1​(w)=(cN+1​−v)w+. Working backward, Cm(w)C_m(w)Cm​(w) is the optimal continuation cost, including the period-mmm ordering decision. The actual period cost g~m(z)\widetilde g^m(z)g​m(z) includes the later continuation value Cm+1C_{m+1}Cm+1​, and equation (19) reads

Cm(w)=inf⁡z≥w+g~m(z).C_m(w)=\inf_{z\ge w^+}\widetilde g^m(z).Cm​(w)=z≥w+inf​g​m(z).

The single-period cost gm(z)g^m(z)gm(z) uses the same demand, holding costs and rationing choices in period mmm, but replaces the later continuation value by the linear terminal charge −cm+1y-c_{m+1}y−cm+1​y. A myopic level yˉm\bar y_myˉ​m​ is any minimum of gmg^mgm on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); it is +∞+\infty+∞ if no such minimum exists. Thus the level need not be the smallest minimum when several stock levels tie Topkis 1968, pp. 174–175.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4: myopic ordering and rationing

Suppose v=cN+1v=c_{N+1}v=cN+1​ and the selected myopic levels are nondecreasing from period mmm onward:

yˉm≤yˉm+1≤⋯≤yˉN.\bar y_m\le\bar y_{m+1}\le\cdots\le\bar y_N.yˉ​m​≤yˉ​m+1​≤⋯≤yˉ​N​.

Then yˉm<+∞\bar y_m<+\inftyyˉ​m​<+∞, and ordering to w∨yˉmw\vee\bar y_mw∨yˉ​m​ minimizes g~m\widetilde g^mg​m over all feasible post-order levels z≥w+z\ge w^+z≥w+. If m<Nm<Nm<N and the stock at the start of period mmm is at most yˉm+1\bar y_{m+1}yˉ​m+1​, the optimal rationing policy during that period is the optimal policy for its single-period problem, calculated with terminal costs v1≡0v_1\equiv0v1​≡0 and v2(y)=−cm+1yv_2(y)=-c_{m+1}yv2​(y)=−cm+1​y Topkis 1968, Theorem 4.

The milestones are the paper's regularity claim for CmC_mCm​ and g~m\widetilde g^mg​m, existence of an actual optimal order-up-to level, finiteness of yˉN\bar y_Nyˉ​N​, the shape of CmC_mCm​ around an optimal level, and the comparison in equation (20). Together these specify the route from the general dynamic program to the myopic target.

Significance

Theorem 4 gives a checkable sufficient condition for replacing a multiperiod ordering computation with a sequence of single-period cost minimizations. It also identifies when the rationing decisions can be obtained from the same single-period model. The stock bound in its rationing clause matters: outside that range, future costs may alter which class demands should be filled now. The result therefore describes both the simplification and its operational domain Topkis 1968, pp. 175–176.

Topkis proved the theorem in 1968; the task here is to produce machine-checked definitions and proofs of that known result. The definitions of feasible rationing, backward value functions, myopic costs and order-up-to levels will also support comparisons with other finite-horizon inventory models. The §1 model is duplicated locally while the four missions for this paper are drafted in parallel, then intended for consolidation into a shared interface.

Difficulty

Convexity alone gives an order-up-to form for the actual cost g~m\widetilde g^mg​m, but it does not identify its minimizing level with a minimum of the simpler cost gmg^mgm. The continuation value Cm+1C_{m+1}Cm+1​ depends on all later ordering and rationing decisions. When some unsatisfied demand is lost, the end-of-period net stock can depend on the within-period rationing choice as well. The core issue is therefore to control the difference between the actual and myopic objectives in the stock range relevant to period mmm Topkis 1968, pp. 174–176. A statement restricted to a preselected rationing rule would miss the theorem's claim about optimality among all feasible decisions.

Formalization scope

Classes are indexed by Fin n; the largest index is the highest penalty class. Intervals and ordering periods use natural numbers with explicit bounds, and intervals retain the paper's backward numbering. Stock, penalties and costs are real. A period's demand vector has a probability law on real vectors supported on the nonnegative orthant, with every coordinate integrable. The §1 dynamic program uses real infima for feasible rationing choices and Bochner integrals for demand expectations. The multiperiod value CmC_mCm​ uses the nonnegative post-order domain z≥w+z\ge w^+z≥w+ in (19). Its defining infimum is intended to be finite under the paper's assumptions; the regularity and attainment milestones expose the facts that rule out Lean's default value for an unbounded infimum. These functions are used only at 1≤m≤N+11\le m\le N+11≤m≤N+1, with period costs at 1≤m≤N1\le m\le N1≤m≤N.

The multiperiod standing assumptions require n>0n>0n>0, N>0N>0N>0, and at least one interval per period, matching the paper’s positive counts.

Holding costs and the appropriate terminal costs satisfy the convexity and continuity assumptions of §1. Within each period, backlog multipliers equal 000 or 111. The terminal procurement cost is nonnegative and salvage revenue does not exceed it. Assumption (D′) is encoded as an eventually positive lower bound on the extended-real right derivative of cmw+∑i=mN∑tht,i(w)−vwc_mw+\sum_{i=m}^N\sum_t h_{t,i}(w)-vwcm​w+∑i=mN​∑t​ht,i​(w)−vw. The §1 terminal functions used in the period assumptions are the linear functions required by the single-period comparison; their regularity adds no independent restriction. Independence across intervals and periods is built into successive expectations. The goal separately assumes v=cN+1v=c_{N+1}v=cN+1​ and monotonicity of the selected myopic levels only from mmm through NNN.

The formal target compares the actual and single-period sets of optimal rationing decisions at every interval and at every nonnegative state with stock at most yˉm+1\bar y_{m+1}yˉ​m+1​. The stock bound and the full feasible set prevent the claim from becoming a result about a handpicked policy. Contributions to the backward recursion, convexity and attainment facts, and the comparison of these two decision sets are all part of this mission.

Selected references

  • Donald M. Topkis, Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes, Management Science 15(3), 160–176, 1968. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.15.3.160.
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Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes III: Under Full Backlogging, Class-j Rationing Levels Ignore Lower-Class Penalties and DemandsResearch Paper

Motivation

A single stock of one product often serves customers of different importance: emergency and routine orders for spare parts, contract and spot customers, high- and low-priority patients for a blood bank. When stock runs low, the question is not only how much to order but how much of the remaining stock to hand to the less important customers now, and how much to hold back for more important demand that may still arrive. Stock rationing policies answer this question with critical rationing levels: demand of a class is served only while the stock stays above that class's level.

Topkis (1968) studied this problem as a finite-horizon dynamic program with nnn demand classes, nonstationary costs and demands, and an arbitrary degree of backlogging. His Theorem 1 shows that, when each interval has either complete backlogging or none, a policy given by critical levels zˉt1≥⋯≥zˉtn\bar z_t^1 \ge \dots \ge \bar z_t^nzˉt1​≥⋯≥zˉtn​ is optimal. This mission concerns his Theorem 3, which treats the case of complete backlogging: the critical levels of a class do not depend on what happens in the classes below it.

Timeline. Veinott (1965) considered nnn demand classes but imposed the policy with all critical levels equal to 000. Topkis's 1966 report treated n=2n = 2n=2, partially duplicated independently by Evans (1968) and by Kaplan's 1966 report "Stock Rationing", in which, according to Topkis, the result of Theorem 3 was used implicitly. Topkis (1968) extended the analysis to nnn classes and stated Theorem 3 explicitly.

Setting

A period is divided into kkk intervals, indexed backwards: interval ttt is followed by t−1t - 1t−1 further intervals, and interval kkk is the first. There are nnn demand classes; class nnn is the most important. In interval ttt a random demand vector dt=(dt1,…,dtn)≥0d_t = (d_t^1, \dots, d_t^n) \ge 0dt​=(dt1​,…,dtn​)≥0 with law μt\mu_tμt​ and finite means arrives; demands in different intervals are independent. Given the stock zzz and the outstanding demand B=b+dtB = b + d_tB=b+dt​ (backlog bbb plus new demand), the decision is the vector uuu, 0≤u≤B0 \le u \le B0≤u≤B, of demand left unsatisfied; the stock drops to w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0w = z - \mathbf 1 \cdot (B - u) \ge 0w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0. A penalty pt⋅up_t \cdot upt​⋅u and a holding cost ht(w)h_t(w)ht​(w) are charged, and the backlog carried into the next interval is atua_t uat​u, with at=1a_t = 1at​=1 for complete backlogging. At the end of the period a salvage cost g0(z,b)=v1(z)+v2(z−1⋅b)g_0(z, b) = v_1(z) + v_2(z - \mathbf 1 \cdot b)g0​(z,b)=v1​(z)+v2​(z−1⋅b) is charged.

The standing assumptions are: hth_tht​ convex and continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); v1v_1v1​ convex and continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); v2v_2v2​ convex and continuous on R\mathbb RR with lim⁡w→−∞D+v2(w)>−∞\lim_{w \to -\infty} D^+ v_2(w) > -\inftylimw→−∞​D+v2​(w)>−∞; and 0≤pt1≤⋯≤ptn0 \le p_t^1 \le \dots \le p_t^n0≤pt1​≤⋯≤ptn​. The minimal expected cost satisfies the recursion (1):

ft(z,B)=inf⁡0≤u≤Bw=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0[pt⋅u+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atu)],gt(z,b)=E ft(z,b+dt).f_t(z, B) = \inf_{\substack{0 \le u \le B \\ w = z - \mathbf 1\cdot(B-u) \ge 0}} \big[p_t \cdot u + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t u)\big], \qquad g_t(z, b) = \mathbb E\, f_t(z, b + d_t).ft​(z,B)=0≤u≤Bw=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0​inf​[pt​⋅u+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​u)],gt​(z,b)=Eft​(z,b+dt​).

With δj\delta_jδj​ the jjj-th unit vector, the critical rationing level zˉtj\bar z_t^jzˉtj​ is +∞+\infty+∞ if w↦ptjw+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atwδj)w \mapsto p_t^j w + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t w \delta_j)w↦ptj​w+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​wδj​) is strictly decreasing on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), and is the smallest minimizer of that function on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) otherwise. D+D^+D+ denotes a right derivative.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Assume at+1=at=⋯=a1=1a_{t+1} = a_t = \dots = a_1 = 1at+1​=at​=⋯=a1​=1 and that the demands of different classes are independent in each interval. Fix a class jjj. Then for two instances of the model that differ only in the penalties pimp_i^mpim​ of the classes m≤j−1m \le j - 1m≤j−1 and in the demand distributions of the classes m≤jm \le jm≤j,

(a) the marginal quantities

Dz+gt(z,zδj)andDε+gt(w,ε(δj−δs)+b)∣ε=0(s>j, bs>0)D_z^+ g_t(z, z\delta_j) \quad\text{and}\quad D_\varepsilon^+ g_t\big(w, \varepsilon(\delta_j - \delta_s) + b\big)\big|_{\varepsilon = 0} \quad (s > j,\ b^s > 0)Dz+​gt​(z,zδj​)andDε+​gt​(w,ε(δj​−δs​)+b)​ε=0​(s>j, bs>0)

coincide, and

(b) the critical rationing levels zˉt+1j\bar z_{t+1}^jzˉt+1j​ coincide.

Milestones

  1. The claim in the proof of Theorem 3 (p. 173): for j<sj < sj<s and Bs>0B^s > 0Bs>0, Dε+gt(z,ε(δj−δs)+B)∣ε=0D_\varepsilon^+ g_t(z, \varepsilon(\delta_j - \delta_s) + B)|_{\varepsilon=0}Dε+​gt​(z,ε(δj​−δs​)+B)∣ε=0​ is independent of B1,…,BjB^1, \dots, B^jB1,…,Bj.
  2. Theorem 3 (a) on its own, from which the page derives (b).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 reduces the size of the problem. Under complete backlogging, class 1 demand does not influence any critical rationing level, and the class-jjj critical levels can be found from a problem with only the n−j+1n - j + 1n−j+1 classes j,…,nj, \dots, nj,…,n, with a degenerate demand distribution for class jjj. Since computing the levels requires tabulating functions of several variables, which Topkis calls prohibitive for large nnn, this is the observation that makes the levels of the most important classes computable.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper by a short sketch that points to two case formulas, (16) and (17), to Theorem 1 (c), and to an interchange of expectation and right derivative. A machine-checked proof would supply the induction, the case analysis and the interchange in full. No formalization of any part of Topkis's paper is known: the result is proved on paper, not formalized.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is an induction on ttt showing that gtg_tgt​ itself does not depend on the lower classes. It fails: gtg_tgt​ does depend on the penalties and demands of every class, since lower-class demand is still served and penalized. Only certain directional derivatives are invariant, and these derivatives depend on the critical levels of every class l≥jl \ge jl≥j and on the optimal rationing decision, which themselves change from one instance to the other unless the invariance is already known for the previous interval. The derivatives are one-sided, may be −∞-\infty−∞ at the boundary, and must be passed through an expectation.

Formalization scope

The Lean development, in namespace TopkisRation.Backlog, fixes these conventions:

  • classes are Fin n (class jjj of the paper is index j−1j-1j−1); intervals are natural numbers counted backwards; vectors are ordered pointwise;
  • ftf_tft​ is defined by the recursion (1), with sInf for the infimum and the Bochner integral for E\mathbb EE, and every statement restricts to z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, b≥0b \ge 0b≥0;
  • D+D^+D+ is an extended-real right derivative (a liminf of difference quotients); Dz+gt(z,zδj)D_z^+ g_t(z, z\delta_j)Dz+​gt​(z,zδj​) is the derivative along the ray in which the stock and the class-jjj backlog move together;
  • zˉtj\bar z_t^jzˉtj​ takes values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R \cup \{+\infty\}R∪{+∞} and is specified by a predicate (smallest minimizer, or +∞+\infty+∞ for a strictly decreasing function), never by a real sInf;
  • the limit in (B) is read as "D+v2D^+ v_2D+v2​ is bounded below";
  • independence of the classes in interval iii is independence of the coordinate maps under μi\mu_iμi​.

"Does not depend on" is stated with two instances MMM, M′M'M′ that agree on every datum the conclusion uses except the freed ones: the same kkk, v1v_1v1​, v2v_2v2​, the same hih_ihi​ and the same pimp_i^mpim​ for m≥jm \ge jm≥j in intervals i≤t+1i \le t+1i≤t+1, and the same class-mmm marginal law for m>jm > jm>j in every interval. The penalty of class jjj itself is not freed. Data of intervals beyond t+1t+1t+1 and the ordering cost are unconstrained. Part (b) is stated for arbitrary critical levels of the two instances; existence of critical levels is part of the paper's §1 and is not assumed away, so (b) is not vacuous. The goal does not assume the p. 173 claim, the case formulas (16)–(17), or Theorem 1. Encoding "does not depend" as "is a function of the remaining data" is ruled out.

Needed infrastructure: one-sided derivatives of convex functions and their monotone limits, interchange of right derivative and expectation for convex integrands, and the convexity and rationing-policy results of §1 (Theorem 1, Lemma 2). These are reusable for the other missions of this series. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a formal version of (16)–(17), and the existence of critical levels.

Selected references

  • D. M. Topkis, Optimal ordering and rationing policies in a nonstationary dynamic inventory model with n demand classes, Management Science 15(3):160–176, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.3.160
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., Optimal policy in a dynamic, single product, nonstationary inventory model with several demand classes, Operations Research 13(5):761–778, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.5.761
  • R. V. Evans, Sales and restocking policies in a single item inventory system, Management Science 14(7):463–472, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.7.463
  • A. Kaplan, Stock Rationing, report, December 1966 (reference [4] of Topkis 1968).
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Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems 2: Stochastic Simple Averages Reach E[φ(x̄ₖ)] − φ* ≤ β̂ₖ₊₁(γd(x*) + L²/(2σγ))/(k+1)Research Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems under uncertainty take the form of minimizing an expected cost φ(x)=Eξf(x,ξ)\varphi(x) = \mathbb E_\xi f(x, \xi)φ(x)=Eξ​f(x,ξ) over a convex feasible set, where ξ\xiξ is a random parameter whose distribution can be sampled but not integrated in closed form. Evaluating φ\varphiφ even approximately can cost exponentially many evaluations of fff in the dimension of ξ\xiξ, so the classical deterministic notion of an approximate solution is unusable. A practical alternative, going back to Nemirovski and Yudin, asks for a random output xxx whose expected objective value is close to the optimum: E φ(x)−φ∗≤ϵ\mathbb E\,\varphi(x) - \varphi^* \le \epsilonEφ(x)−φ∗≤ϵ. Stochastic subgradient methods achieve this; Nesterov's paper Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems (Math. Program. 120 (2009)) shows that the same guarantee holds for a stochastic version of his method of simple dual averages, a scheme that aggregates all past subgradients in the dual space instead of taking projected steps with decreasing step sizes.

Dual averaging has since become a standard tool in stochastic and online convex optimization (regularized dual averaging, AdaGrad's primal-dual variant, distributed dual averaging). Section 6 of Nesterov's paper is the original statement of its expected-accuracy guarantee.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and dual space E∗E^*E∗ with dual norm ∥s∥∗=max⁡{⟨s,x⟩:∥x∥≤1}\|s\|_* = \max\{\langle s, x\rangle : \|x\| \le 1\}∥s∥∗​=max{⟨s,x⟩:∥x∥≤1}. Let Q⊆EQ \subseteq EQ⊆E be closed and convex, and let ddd be a prox-function of QQQ: continuous on QQQ and strongly convex on QQQ with convexity parameter σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0,

d(αx+(1−α)y)≤αd(x)+(1−α)d(y)−12σα(1−α)∥x−y∥2,d(\alpha x + (1-\alpha)y) \le \alpha d(x) + (1-\alpha) d(y) - \tfrac12\sigma\alpha(1-\alpha)\|x-y\|^2,d(αx+(1−α)y)≤αd(x)+(1−α)d(y)−21​σα(1−α)∥x−y∥2,

with prox-center x0=arg⁡min⁡x∈Qd(x)x_0 = \arg\min_{x\in Q} d(x)x0​=argminx∈Q​d(x) and d(x0)=0d(x_0) = 0d(x0​)=0. For β>0\beta > 0β>0 and s∈E∗s \in E^*s∈E∗ the point πβ(s)=arg⁡min⁡x∈Q{−⟨s,x⟩+βd(x)}\pi_\beta(s) = \arg\min_{x \in Q}\{-\langle s, x\rangle + \beta d(x)\}πβ​(s)=argminx∈Q​{−⟨s,x⟩+βd(x)} is well defined. The scalar sequence β^\hat\betaβ^​ is given by β^0=β^1=1\hat\beta_0 = \hat\beta_1 = 1β^​0​=β^​1​=1 and β^i+1=β^i+1/β^i\hat\beta_{i+1} = \hat\beta_i + 1/\hat\beta_iβ^​i+1​=β^​i​+1/β^​i​ for i≥1i \ge 1i≥1.

The stochastic problem is given by a probability space (Ξ,μ)(\Xi, \mu)(Ξ,μ) and a cost f:Q×Ξ→Rf : Q \times \Xi \to \mathbb Rf:Q×Ξ→R with φ(x)=Eξf(x,ξ)\varphi(x) = \mathbb E_\xi f(x,\xi)φ(x)=Eξ​f(x,ξ) well defined on QQQ, and a minimizer x∗x^*x∗ of φ\varphiφ over QQQ with φ∗=φ(x∗)\varphi^* = \varphi(x^*)φ∗=φ(x∗). Assumption 1: each f(⋅,ξ)f(\cdot, \xi)f(⋅,ξ) is convex on QQQ. Assumption 2: a stochastic oracle returns a subgradient f′(x,ξ)f'(x, \xi)f′(x,ξ) of f(⋅,ξ)f(\cdot, \xi)f(⋅,ξ) at xxx, and ∥f′(x,ξ)∥∗≤L\|f'(x,\xi)\|_* \le L∥f′(x,ξ)∥∗​≤L for all x∈Qx \in Qx∈Q, ξ∈Ξ\xi \in \Xiξ∈Ξ.

The method of stochastic simple averages (SSA, (6.3)) fixes γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, starts from x0x_0x0​ and s0=0s_0 = 0s0​=0, and for k≥0k \ge 0k≥0 draws a fresh independent sample ξk∼μ\xi_k \sim \muξk​∼μ and sets

sk+1=sk+f′(xk,ξk),xk+1=πγβ^k+1(−sk+1).s_{k+1} = s_k + f'(x_k, \xi_k), \qquad x_{k+1} = \pi_{\gamma\hat\beta_{k+1}}(-s_{k+1}).sk+1​=sk​+f′(xk​,ξk​),xk+1​=πγβ^​k+1​​(−sk+1​).

Its deterministic counterpart, the method of simple dual averages (SDA, (2.21)), is the same recursion with arbitrary answers gkg_kgk​ in place of f′(xk,ξk)f'(x_k, \xi_k)f′(xk​,ξk​). The quality of the points x0,…,xkx_0,\dots,x_kx0​,…,xk​ is measured by the gap δk(D)=max⁡{∑i=0k⟨gi,xi−x⟩:x∈Q, d(x)≤D}\delta_k(D) = \max\{\sum_{i=0}^k\langle g_i, x_i - x\rangle : x \in Q,\ d(x)\le D\}δk​(D)=max{∑i=0k​⟨gi​,xi​−x⟩:x∈Q, d(x)≤D}. Write ξk=(ξ0,…,ξk)\boldsymbol\xi_k = (\xi_0, \dots, \xi_k)ξk​=(ξ0​,…,ξk​) and Eξk\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k}Eξk​​ for the expectation over these k+1k+1k+1 independent samples.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7 (p. 27)

For every k≥0k \ge 0k≥0,

Eξk(φ(1k+1∑i=0kxi))−φ∗≤β^k+1k+1(γ d(x∗)+L22σγ).\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k}\Big(\varphi\Big(\frac{1}{k+1}\sum_{i=0}^k x_i\Big)\Big) - \varphi^* \le \frac{\hat\beta_{k+1}}{k+1}\Big(\gamma\, d(x^*) + \frac{L^2}{2\sigma\gamma}\Big).Eξk​​(φ(k+11​i=0∑k​xi​))−φ∗≤k+1β^​k+1​​(γd(x∗)+2σγL2​).

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2 (p. 11): for SDA with any answers gig_igi​ and Lk=max⁡i≤k∥gi∥∗L_k = \max_{i\le k}\|g_i\|_*Lk​=maxi≤k​∥gi​∥∗​, δk(D)≤β^k+1(γD+Lk2/(2σγ))\delta_k(D) \le \hat\beta_{k+1}(\gamma D + L_k^2/(2\sigma\gamma))δk​(D)≤β^​k+1​(γD+Lk2​/(2σγ)) for D≥0D \ge 0D≥0, and, if some x∗∈Qx^* \in Qx∗∈Q satisfies ⟨gi,xi−x∗⟩≥0\langle g_i, x_i - x^*\rangle \ge 0⟨gi​,xi​−x∗⟩≥0 for all iii, ∥xk−x∗∥2≤2σd(x∗)+Lk2/(σ2γ2)\|x_k - x^*\|^2 \le \frac2\sigma d(x^*) + L_k^2/(\sigma^2\gamma^2)∥xk​−x∗∥2≤σ2​d(x∗)+Lk2​/(σ2γ2).
  2. (6.5) (p. 26): along every sample path, 1k+1δ~k(D)≤β^k+1k+1(γD+L22σγ)\frac{1}{k+1}\tilde\delta_k(D) \le \frac{\hat\beta_{k+1}}{k+1}(\gamma D + \frac{L^2}{2\sigma\gamma})k+11​δ~k​(D)≤k+1β^​k+1​​(γD+2σγL2​).
  3. Display after (6.5) (p. 26): for D≥d(x∗)D \ge d(x^*)D≥d(x∗), the gap of a run dominates 1k+1∑i⟨f′(xi,ξi),xi−x∗⟩\frac1{k+1}\sum_i\langle f'(x_i,\xi_i), x_i - x^*\ranglek+11​∑i​⟨f′(xi​,ξi​),xi​−x∗⟩, which dominates 1k+1∑i[f(xi,ξi)−f(x∗,ξi)]\frac1{k+1}\sum_i[f(x_i,\xi_i) - f(x^*,\xi_i)]k+11​∑i​[f(xi​,ξi​)−f(x∗,ξi​)].
  4. (6.6) (p. 26): Eξk(1k+1δk(D))≥1k+1∑iEξkf(xi,ξi)−φ∗\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k}(\frac1{k+1}\delta_k(D)) \ge \frac1{k+1}\sum_i\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k} f(x_i,\xi_i) - \varphi^*Eξk​​(k+11​δk​(D))≥k+11​∑i​Eξk​​f(xi​,ξi​)−φ∗.
  5. p. 27, first display: Eξkf(xi,ξi)=Eξkφ(xi)\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k} f(x_i,\xi_i) = \mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k}\varphi(x_i)Eξk​​f(xi​,ξi​)=Eξk​​φ(xi​) for i≤ki \le ki≤k.
  6. p. 27, display before Theorem 7: 1k+1∑iEφ(xi)≥Eφ(1k+1∑ixi)\frac1{k+1}\sum_i\mathbb E\varphi(x_i) \ge \mathbb E\varphi(\frac1{k+1}\sum_i x_i)k+11​∑i​Eφ(xi​)≥Eφ(k+11​∑i​xi​), together with the averaged identity.

Significance

Theorem 7 gives an explicit, non-asymptotic bound on the expected optimality gap of the averaged SSA point. Since β^k+1≈2k\hat\beta_{k+1} \approx \sqrt{2k}β^​k+1​≈2k​, the bound is O(1/k)O(1/\sqrt k)O(1/k​), the optimal rate for nonsmooth stochastic convex optimization with bounded subgradients. Two features distinguish it from the classical stochastic subgradient bound: it holds in an arbitrary norm with a non-Euclidean prox-function (for example the entropy on the simplex with the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm), and the feasible set QQQ need not be bounded, since only d(x∗)d(x^*)d(x∗) enters. The constant is explicit and γ\gammaγ can be tuned to γ=L/2σd(x∗)\gamma = L/\sqrt{2\sigma d(x^*)}γ=L/2σd(x∗)​.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no machine-checked proof of Theorem 7 or of the dual averaging bounds of the paper exists. A formalization yields a reusable verified analysis of dual averaging in a general normed space, a template for expectation bounds over i.i.d. sample paths of an adaptive algorithm, and checked constants.

Difficulty

The pathwise part is a consequence of the deterministic Theorem 2, which itself rests on the general Dual Averaging bound (the companion mission's Theorem 1) and on the strong convexity estimates for πβ\pi_\betaπβ​. The probabilistic part looks routine on paper but is where formal arguments break: the iterate xix_ixi​ is a function of ξ0,…,ξi−1\xi_0, \dots, \xi_{i-1}ξ0​,…,ξi−1​, and the identity Ef(xi,ξi)=Eφ(xi)\mathbb E f(x_i, \xi_i) = \mathbb E\varphi(x_i)Ef(xi​,ξi​)=Eφ(xi​) requires measurability of the whole run and a Fubini argument on the product space. Measurability of the run in turn depends on continuity of the argmin map πβ\pi_\betaπβ​, and integrability of φ(xˉk)\varphi(\bar x_k)φ(xˉk​) and of the gap is not assumed but must be derived from the uniform bound LLL and the boundedness of the iterates. Pathwise bounds alone do not suffice: (6.5) controls the gap on each sample, not φ(xˉk)\varphi(\bar x_k)φ(xˉk​).

Formalization scope

Theorem numbers and page numbers refer to source.pdf, the author's revised CORE discussion-paper version (September 2005) of the Math. Program. article; printed pages equal PDF pages.

  • EEE is a finite-dimensional real normed space with an arbitrary norm; E∗E^*E∗ is StrongDual ℝ E with the operator norm, and ⟨s,x⟩\langle s, x\rangle⟨s,x⟩ is s x. Strong convexity is Mathlib's StrongConvexOn Q σ d, which is exactly (1.8); σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0.
  • π\piπ is a map ℝ → StrongDual ℝ E → E with the hypothesis that πβ(s)\pi_\beta(s)πβ​(s) lies in QQQ and minimizes −⟨s,x⟩+βd(x)-\langle s, x\rangle + \beta d(x)−⟨s,x⟩+βd(x) for every β>0\beta > 0β>0; no choice function is used.
  • β^\hat\betaβ^​ is defined by recursion with β^0=β^1=1\hat\beta_0 = \hat\beta_1 = 1β^​0​=β^​1​=1. The gap is a real supremum over FD={x∈Q:d(x)≤D}\mathcal F_D = \{x\in Q : d(x)\le D\}FD​={x∈Q:d(x)≤D}, used only for D≥0D \ge 0D≥0, where the set is nonempty and bounded.
  • Indices start at 0; x0x_0x0​ is the prox-center. The run is a function of a sample path ω:N→Ξ\omega : \mathbb N \to \Xiω:N→Ξ; Eξk\mathbb E_{\boldsymbol\xi_k}Eξk​​ is the integral against the product measure μ⊗(k+1)\mu^{\otimes(k+1)}μ⊗(k+1) on Ξk+1\Xi^{k+1}Ξk+1 (the law of k+1k+1k+1 i.i.d. copies of ξ\xiξ), with the finite sample padded to a sequence that the iterates never read.
  • fff and f′f'f′ are functions on E×ΞE \times \XiE×Ξ whose values off QQQ are irrelevant; the subgradient inequality is relative to QQQ. Integrability of f(x,⋅)f(x, \cdot)f(x,⋅) for x∈Qx \in Qx∈Q, and joint measurability of fff and f′f'f′, are explicit hypotheses. The paper uses measurability tacitly; without it a Lean integral of a non-measurable function is 000 and the goal could become false.
  • A statement for a fixed sample path, or with Eφ(xˉk)\mathbb E\varphi(\bar x_k)Eφ(xˉk​) replaced by a pathwise quantity, is a different and weaker theorem and does not count. Integrability of the run is not assumed: it is part of what must be proved.

A complete development needs the deterministic dual averaging analysis (Lemma 1, Lemma 2, Theorem 1 of the paper, restated here only through Theorem 2), measurability and continuity of πβ\pi_\betaπβ​, and Fubini on finite products of probability spaces. The dual averaging lemmas and the product-measure lemmas for adaptive sample paths are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and supporting lemmas on measurability of the SSA run, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. Nesterov, Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems, Mathematical Programming 120 (2009), 221–259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0149-x
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 19 (2009), 1574–1609. https://doi.org/10.1137/070704277
  • L. Xiao, Dual averaging methods for regularized stochastic learning and online optimization, J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11 (2010), 2543–2596. https://jmlr.org/papers/v11/xiao10a.html
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes II: Without Backlogging, the Critical Rationing Levels Are Nondecreasing in tResearch Paper

Motivation

A firm that holds a single stock of one product often faces demand from several classes of customers that differ in importance: emergency and routine orders for spare parts, contract and spot customers, high- and low-priority users of a military supply system. When stock runs low it can pay to refuse a less important demand now in order to keep stock for a more important demand that may arrive later. Veinott (Operations Research 13 (1965), 761–778) studied a dynamic inventory model with several demand classes but required the specific policy that serves every class whenever stock is available. Topkis (Management Science 15 (1968), 160–176) treated the dynamic version, in which demands arrive over the intervals of a period between two procurements, and showed that the optimal rationing policy has a simple form described by one critical rationing level per class and interval.

This mission concerns how those critical levels move over time. The paper's Theorem 2 gives a condition under which, without backlogging, the levels are monotone in the interval index, so that rationing is at least as strict early in the period as late in it. It is the second of four missions on the paper; the first establishes the critical-level policy itself (Theorem 1).

Setting

A period is divided into kkk intervals, indexed backwards: interval ttt has t−1t-1t−1 intervals after it, so interval kkk is the first and interval 1 the last. There are nnn demand classes, class nnn the most important. At the start of interval ttt the demand vector dt=(dt1,…,dtn)d_t = (d_t^1,\dots,d_t^n)dt​=(dt1​,…,dtn​) is observed; demands of different intervals are independent, and each class has a finite mean. With backlog bbb and stock zzz, one decides the vector uuu of outstanding demand left unsatisfied, 0≤u≤B=b+dt0 \le u \le B = b + d_t0≤u≤B=b+dt​, using 1⋅(B−u)\mathbf 1\cdot(B-u)1⋅(B−u) units of stock, so the stock at the end of the interval is w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0w = z - \mathbf 1\cdot(B-u) \ge 0w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0. A fraction at≥0a_t \ge 0at​≥0 of the unsatisfied demand is carried as backlog atua_t uat​u into the next interval: at=1a_t = 1at​=1 is complete backlogging, at=0a_t = 0at​=0 none.

The costs are a penalty pt⋅up_t\cdot upt​⋅u with 0≤pt1≤⋯≤ptn0 \le p_t^1 \le \dots \le p_t^n0≤pt1​≤⋯≤ptn​ (Assumption (C)), a holding cost ht(w)h_t(w)ht​(w) continuous and convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) (Assumption (A)), and a salvage cost v1(z)+v2(z−1⋅b)v_1(z) + v_2(z - \mathbf 1\cdot b)v1​(z)+v2​(z−1⋅b) at the end of the period, with v1v_1v1​, v2v_2v2​ convex and continuous and D+v2D^+v_2D+v2​ bounded below (Assumption (B)). Here D+D^+D+ denotes the right derivative. The optimal costs satisfy the recursion (1)

ft(z,B)=inf⁡0≤u≤B, w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0[pt⋅u+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atu)],gt(z,b)=Eft(z,b+dt),f_t(z,B) = \inf_{0\le u\le B,\ w = z-\mathbf 1\cdot(B-u)\ge 0}\bigl[p_t\cdot u + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t u)\bigr],\qquad g_t(z,b) = \mathbb E f_t(z, b+d_t),ft​(z,B)=0≤u≤B, w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0inf​[pt​⋅u+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​u)],gt​(z,b)=Eft​(z,b+dt​),

with g0(z,b)=v1(z)+v2(z−1⋅b)g_0(z,b) = v_1(z) + v_2(z-\mathbf 1\cdot b)g0​(z,b)=v1​(z)+v2​(z−1⋅b).

With δj\delta_jδj​ the jjj-th unit vector, the critical rationing level zˉtj∈[0,∞]\bar z_t^j\in[0,\infty]zˉtj​∈[0,∞] is +∞+\infty+∞ if φtj(w)=ptjw+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atwδj)\varphi_t^j(w) = p_t^j w + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t w\delta_j)φtj​(w)=ptj​w+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​wδj​) is strictly decreasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and the smallest minimizer of φtj\varphi_t^jφtj​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) otherwise. Under the paper's Theorem 1 the rationing level policy uj=(B(j)−z+zˉtj)+∧Bju^j = (B^{(j)} - z + \bar z_t^j)^+\wedge B^juj=(B(j)−z+zˉtj​)+∧Bj, with B(j)=∑i≥jBiB^{(j)} = \sum_{i\ge j}B^iB(j)=∑i≥j​Bi, is optimal: class jjj is served from stock only while the stock stays at or above zˉtj\bar z_t^jzˉtj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 170)

Let 1≤t1\le t1≤t, t+1≤kt+1\le kt+1≤k, at+1=at=0a_{t+1} = a_t = 0at+1​=at​=0, and ai∈{0,1}a_i\in\{0,1\}ai​∈{0,1} for i≤ti\le ti≤t. If

pt+1j+lim⁡z→∞D+ht+1(z)≤ptj,thenzˉtj≤zˉt+1j.p_{t+1}^j + \lim_{z\to\infty}D^+h_{t+1}(z) \le p_t^j, \qquad\text{then}\qquad \bar z_t^j \le \bar z_{t+1}^j .pt+1j​+z→∞lim​D+ht+1​(z)≤ptj​,thenzˉtj​≤zˉt+1j​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5 (p. 168). For b≤bˉb\le\bar bb≤bˉ: Dz+gt(z,bˉ)≤Dz+gt(z,b)D_z^+g_t(z,\bar b)\le D_z^+g_t(z,b)Dz+​gt​(z,bˉ)≤Dz+​gt​(z,b).
  2. Lemma 6 (p. 168). For z≤zˉz\le\bar zz≤zˉ and y≥0y\ge 0y≥0: gt(zˉ,b)−gt(z,b)≤gt(zˉ+1⋅y,b+y)−gt(z+1⋅y,b+y)g_t(\bar z,b)-g_t(z,b)\le g_t(\bar z+\mathbf 1\cdot y,b+y)-g_t(z+\mathbf 1\cdot y,b+y)gt​(zˉ,b)−gt​(z,b)≤gt​(zˉ+1⋅y,b+y)−gt​(z+1⋅y,b+y).
  3. (12) (p. 170). If b=0b=0b=0 or at=1a_t=1at​=1, for small ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and every d≥0d\ge0d≥0, the difference quotients of ft(⋅,b+d)f_t(\cdot,b+d)ft​(⋅,b+d), ft(⋅,b)f_t(\cdot,b)ft​(⋅,b) and ht+gt−1(⋅,b)h_t+g_{t-1}(\cdot,b)ht​+gt−1​(⋅,b) at zzz are ordered.
  4. Lemma 7 (p. 169). If at=1a_t = 1at​=1 or b=0b = 0b=0: Dz+gt(z,b)≤D+ht(z)+Dz+gt−1(z,b)D_z^+g_t(z,b)\le D^+h_t(z)+D_z^+g_{t-1}(z,b)Dz+​gt​(z,b)≤D+ht​(z)+Dz+​gt−1​(z,b).

Significance

The result says that, in intervals without backlogging, the stock reserved against a class is never larger late in the period than early in it, provided the class's penalty in the earlier interval plus the eventual marginal holding cost does not exceed its penalty in the later interval. Together with Theorem 1 it reduces the dynamic rationing problem to a family of one-dimensional critical numbers with a known order in both the class and the time index. The paper's example on p. 170 shows that the analogous monotonicity fails with backlogging, so the hypothesis at+1=at=0a_{t+1} = a_t = 0at+1​=at​=0 is essential.

The paper's proofs are complete but informal: they interchange expectation and right-derivative limits, and rest on Lemma 2 (convexity and attainment) and Theorem 1 (c). No part of this paper has been machine-checked. This mission produces formal statements of Theorem 2 and the three lemmas it rests on; contributions that formalize the known proofs, or that settle whether the extra hypothesis on earlier backlogging fractions (below) can be dropped, are equally in scope.

Difficulty

The central difficulty is Lemma 7, the comparison of the marginal value of stock in two consecutive intervals. The value functions are defined through an infimum and an expectation, so they are convex but not differentiable, and the minimizer in (1) changes regime each time the stock crosses a critical level; differentiating (1) directly is not available. Right derivatives may also be −∞-\infty−∞ at z=0z = 0z=0, and statements about them have to survive an interchange of expectation and a one-sided limit. The lemma depends on the optimal policy of Theorem 1, which is the subject of the first mission of this series. The claim of Lemma 7 is false when at=0a_t = 0at​=0 and b≠0b\ne0b=0 (p. 168), so no argument can ignore the case split.

Formalization scope

  • Classes are Fin n (paper class jjj is index j−1j-1j−1); intervals are natural numbers counted backwards; vectors are Fin n → ℝ with the pointwise order.
  • ftf_tft​ and gtg_tgt​ are defined by the recursion (1) with sInf and the Bochner integral, and every statement restricts to z≥0z\ge0z≥0, b≥0b\ge0b≥0, where the paper's Lemma 2 (proved in the first mission of the series) makes the infimum finite and attained and the integrand integrable.
  • D+D^+D+ is an extended-real liminf of right difference quotients, never a real derivWithin, which would return 000 where the right derivative is −∞-\infty−∞. Sums of right derivatives are taken in EReal.
  • The standing assumptions (A), (B), (C), at≥0a_t\ge0at​≥0, and probability laws on [0,∞)n[0,\infty)^n[0,∞)n with finite means are bundled in Model.Standing; (B)'s limit condition is read as "D+v2D^+v_2D+v2​ is bounded below".
  • Critical levels are values in WithTop ℝ satisfying the defining predicate (strictly decreasing ⇒ +∞+\infty+∞, otherwise the smallest minimizer); the theorem holds for any such choice. Their existence is a milestone of the first mission; a sanity check exhibits a model in which all hypotheses of Theorem 2 hold with zˉtj=zˉt+1j=0\bar z_t^j = \bar z_{t+1}^j = 0zˉtj​=zˉt+1j​=0.
  • The penalty hypothesis is stated for all z≥0z\ge0z≥0 instead of as a limit; these agree because D+ht+1D^+h_{t+1}D+ht+1​ is nondecreasing.
  • Disclosed addition: Theorem 2 is stated with ai∈{0,1}a_i\in\{0,1\}ai​∈{0,1} for all i≤ti\le ti≤t, the hypothesis of Lemma 7 that its proof uses; the printed statement names only at+1=at=0a_{t+1}=a_t=0at+1​=at​=0. The hypothesis on aia_iai​ in Lemmas 5–7 is required only for i≤ti\le ti≤t.
  • A formalization in which the goal assumes Lemma 7's inequality, or any property of D+gtD^+g_tD+gt​, would be trivial and is excluded: those facts appear only as milestones.

Selected references

  • D. M. Topkis, Optimal ordering and rationing policies in a nonstationary dynamic inventory model with n demand classes, Management Science 15(3) (1968), 160–176. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.3.160
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Optimal policy in a dynamic, single product, nonstationary inventory model with several demand classes, Operations Research 13(5) (1965), 761–778. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.5.761
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces XI: The Random Assignment Problem — Fluctuations of the Optimal Cost of Order (log N)²/(√N log log N)Textbook

Motivation

The assignment problem asks for a one-to-one matching of NNN agents to NNN tasks that minimizes the total cost. It is one of the basic problems of combinatorial optimization and is solved in polynomial time by the Hungarian method. Its random version, in which the N2N^2N2 costs are independent random variables, is a standard model for the typical behavior of optimization problems on random inputs, and it has been studied in probability, operations research and statistical physics.

Timeline:

  • Walkup (1979) showed that the expected optimal cost E(LN)E(L_N)E(LN​) of the random assignment problem with independent uniform [0,1][0,1][0,1] costs stays bounded as N→∞N \to \inftyN→∞ (doi:10.1137/0208036).
  • Karp (1987) proved E(LN)≤2E(L_N) \le 2E(LN​)≤2.
  • Talagrand (1995), in the article this mission formalizes, bounded the fluctuations of LNL_NLN​ around its median by K(log⁡N)2/(Nlog⁡log⁡N)K(\log N)^2/(\sqrt N \log\log N)K(logN)2/(N​loglogN), as a showcase of his concentration inequality for product measures (doi:10.1007/BF02699376).
  • Aldous (2001) proved the limit E(LN)→π2/6E(L_N) \to \pi^2/6E(LN​)→π2/6, the value predicted by Mézard and Parisi (doi:10.1002/rsa.1015).

This mission is Chapter 10 of Talagrand's article.

Setting

Fix NNN and two sets III and JJJ of cardinal NNN. An assignment is a one-to-one map τ\tauτ from III onto JJJ. Given a cost matrix a=(ai,j)i∈I,j∈Ja = (a_{i,j})_{i \in I, j \in J}a=(ai,j​)i∈I,j∈J​, the cost of τ\tauτ is ∑i∈Iai,τ(i)\sum_{i \in I} a_{i,\tau(i)}∑i∈I​ai,τ(i)​. In the random problem the costs are Xi,jX_{i,j}Xi,j​, independent and uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and the optimal cost is the random variable

LN=min⁡{∑i∈IXi,τ(i)  ;  τ assignment}.L_N = \min\Big\{ \sum_{i \in I} X_{i,\tau(i)} \;;\; \tau \text{ assignment} \Big\}.LN​=min{i∈I∑​Xi,τ(i)​;τ assignment}.

A median of LNL_NLN​ is any real MMM with P(LN≤M)≥1/2P(L_N \le M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≤M)≥1/2 and P(LN≥M)≥1/2P(L_N \ge M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≥M)≥1/2.

The argument uses digraphs. A digraph is a subset D⊆I×JD \subseteq I \times JD⊆I×J, and for S⊆IS \subseteq IS⊆I the set of neighbors is D(S)={j∈J; ∃i∈S, (i,j)∈D}D(S) = \{ j \in J ;\ \exists i \in S,\ (i,j) \in D \}D(S)={j∈J; ∃i∈S, (i,j)∈D}. For α≥2\alpha \ge 2α≥2, DDD is α\alphaα-expanding if for every S⊆IS \subseteq IS⊆I

card⁡S≤N2⇒card⁡D(S)≥min⁡(αcard⁡S,N2),card⁡S≥N2⇒card⁡D(S)≥N−1α(N−card⁡S).\operatorname{card} S \le \tfrac N2 \Rightarrow \operatorname{card} D(S) \ge \min\big(\alpha \operatorname{card} S, \tfrac N2\big), \qquad \operatorname{card} S \ge \tfrac N2 \Rightarrow \operatorname{card} D(S) \ge N - \tfrac 1\alpha (N - \operatorname{card} S).cardS≤2N​⇒cardD(S)≥min(αcardS,2N​),cardS≥2N​⇒cardD(S)≥N−α1​(N−cardS).

For u>0u > 0u>0 the threshold digraph is Du={(i,j); Xi,j≤2uN−1log⁡N}D_u = \{(i,j) ;\ X_{i,j} \le 2uN^{-1}\log N\}Du​={(i,j); Xi,j​≤2uN−1logN}: it keeps only the cheap edges.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.5

There is a universal constant KKK such that for N≥3N \ge 3N≥3, every median MMM of LNL_NLN​ and every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

t≤log⁡N⇒P(∣LN−M∣≥Kt(log⁡N)2Nlog⁡log⁡N)≤2e−t2,t \le \sqrt{\log N} \Rightarrow P\Big(|L_N - M| \ge \frac{K t (\log N)^2}{\sqrt N \log\log N}\Big) \le 2 e^{-t^2},t≤logN​⇒P(∣LN​−M∣≥N​loglogNKt(logN)2​)≤2e−t2, t≥log⁡N⇒P(∣LN−M∣≥Kt3log⁡NNlog⁡t2)≤2e−t2.t \ge \sqrt{\log N} \Rightarrow P\Big(|L_N - M| \ge \frac{K t^3 \log N}{\sqrt N \log t^2}\Big) \le 2 e^{-t^2}.t≥logN​⇒P(∣LN​−M∣≥N​logt2Kt3logN​)≤2e−t2.

The constant KKK is left unspecified, as in the paper.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Lemma 10.1 (deterministic): in an α\alphaα-expanding digraph with αm≥N/2\alpha^m \ge N/2αm≥N/2, every i∈Ii \in Ii∈I lies on a cycle i=i1,…,in+1=ii = i_1, \dots, i_{n+1} = ii=i1​,…,in+1​=i of distinct points, n≤2mn \le 2mn≤2m, with (iℓ,τ(iℓ+1))∈D(i_\ell, \tau(i_{\ell+1})) \in D(iℓ​,τ(iℓ+1​))∈D.
  2. Corollary 10.2 (deterministic in the costs): if DuD_uDu​ is α\alphaα-expanding and αm≥N/2\alpha^m \ge N/2αm≥N/2, every optimal assignment satisfies Xi,τ(i)≤4muN−1log⁡NX_{i,\tau(i)} \le 4muN^{-1}\log NXi,τ(i)​≤4muN−1logN.
  3. Lemma 10.4: for independent events of probability ppp, fewer than δpN\delta p NδpN occur with probability at most exp⁡(−Np/K(δ))\exp(-Np/K(\delta))exp(−Np/K(δ)).
  4. Proposition 10.3: for a universal KKK and u>Ku > Ku>K with ulog⁡N≤Nu \log N \le NulogN≤N, DuD_uDu​ is ulog⁡Nu\log NulogN-expanding with probability at least 1−N−u/K1 - N^{-u/K}1−N−u/K.

Significance

The expected value of LNL_NLN​ is of the same order as a single cost, yet LNL_NLN​ is a function of N2N^2N2 independent variables. A generic bounded-difference bound in all N2N^2N2 coordinates gives no useful concentration at this scale. Theorem 10.5 shows that the fluctuations are at most of order (log⁡N)2/(Nlog⁡log⁡N)(\log N)^2/(\sqrt N \log\log N)(logN)2/(N​loglogN), and by the remark after the theorem, so is the standard deviation of LNL_NLN​. The chapter is a worked example of how a concentration inequality in product spaces is combined with a combinatorial localization argument, the reduction to small costs, and that pattern recurs in the study of random combinatorial optimization problems.

Status: the theorem and its lemmas are proved in the paper. As far as a search of the platform shows, none of them has a machine-checked proof. The two posed statements of Theorem 4.1.1 on the platform (finite-alphabet form) are the concentration inequality the proof calls on; formalizing this chapter adds the combinatorics of expanding digraphs, the random-graph estimate Proposition 10.3 and the final assembly.

Difficulty

The naive approach applies a concentration inequality directly to LNL_NLN​ as a function of the N2N^2N2 costs, each of which can change LNL_NLN​ by up to 111. That loses all control, because the variance proxy grows with the number of coordinates. The central step is to show that, with high probability, an optimal assignment only uses costs of order N−1(log⁡N)2N^{-1}(\log N)^2N−1(logN)2. This requires the cycle structure of Lemma 10.1, and it requires showing that the sparse random digraph DuD_uDu​ has expansion uniformly over all subsets SSS of III, whose number is exponential in NNN. Proposition 10.3 has to beat that union bound, and its proof covers only one of the two expansion conditions in detail; the condition (10.2) for large sets is "left to the reader". The final step combines the truncation with Theorem 4.1.1 and a careful choice of parameters for the two ranges of ttt.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace TalagrandConc.Assignment and commits to the following conventions:

  • I=J=I = J = I=J= Fin N, assignments are Equiv.Perm (Fin N), and LNL_NLN​ is optCost, a Finset.inf' over all permutations (no junk value).
  • The probability space is the cost matrices Fin N × Fin N → ℝ with costLaw N, the product of Lebesgue measure restricted to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The coordinates are the Xi,jX_{i,j}Xi,j​.
  • Cardinalities of subsets are Set.ncard on the finite type Fin N. α\alphaα-expansion includes α≥2\alpha \ge 2α≥2 as part of the definition.
  • Probabilities are in ℝ≥0∞, and 1−N−u/K1 - N^{-u/K}1−N−u/K is truncated subtraction there.
  • Universal constants are existentially quantified before every object they are uniform over. K(δ)K(\delta)K(δ) in Lemma 10.4 is chosen after δ\deltaδ and before everything else.
  • Implicit side conditions of the paper are stated: m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 in Lemma 10.1 and Corollary 10.2, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 for the cycle, N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 in Proposition 10.3, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 in Theorem 10.5.

A cycle of length n=0n = 0n=0 would satisfy Lemma 10.1 vacuously. The formal statement therefore requires n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, which rules out that trivializing reading. Similarly, Theorem 10.5 fixes one constant KKK for all NNN; a KKK depending on NNN would make the bound empty.

Infrastructure: the product of uniform laws on a finite index set, iterated expansion arguments for bipartite digraphs, a lower-tail Chernoff bound for independent events, and the union bound over subsets are reusable beyond this mission. Theorem 4.1.1 of the paper is posed elsewhere on the platform and is not restated here. The bound (8.1.1) used in Step 2 of the proof belongs to another chapter of the series. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, or of intermediate displayed estimates such as (10.5), (10.6) and (10.9), are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publ. Math. IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. doi:10.1007/BF02699376
  • D. W. Walkup, On the expected value of a random assignment problem, SIAM J. Comput. 8 (1979), 440–442. doi:10.1137/0208036
  • R. M. Karp, An upper bound on the expected cost of an optimal assignment, in Discrete Algorithms and Complexity, Academic Press (1987), 1–4.
  • J. M. Steele, Probability Theory and Combinatorial Optimization, SIAM (1997). doi:10.1137/1.9781611970029
  • D. J. Aldous, The ζ(2) limit in the random assignment problem, Random Structures Algorithms 18 (2001), 381–418. doi:10.1002/rsa.1015
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Functional AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces IX: Suprema of Linear Forms in Bounded Independent Variables — P(|Z − M| ≥ u) ≤ 4 exp(−u²/(4σ²))Textbook

Why linear suprema arise

A family of linear forms turns independent observations into a single random maximum. Examples include the largest value of a collection of statistical scores and the norm of a random vector sum, which can itself be expressed through the continuous dual of a normed space. A bound for each form separately does not automatically control the supremum over an infinite family. Talagrand's 1995 paper gives a concentration inequality in which the coefficient scale, rather than the number of forms, controls the deviation Talagrand 1995, §8.1. The Banach-space consequence in Chapter 13 applies the same principle to norms of vector sums Talagrand 1995, Theorem 13.2.

The two results have a direct relationship: the norm of a vector is the supremum of its evaluations by continuous linear functionals of norm at most one. The formalization therefore gives a setting in which a general real-valued supremum theorem and a vector-valued corollary can be audited together. It also tests whether the concentration statement remains faithful when the family of forms is infinite and the coordinate laws differ.

The random supremum and its scale

Fix a finite number NNN of coordinates and a nonempty family F⊆RN\mathcal F\subseteq\mathbb R^NF⊆RN of coefficient vectors α=(αi)i=1N\alpha=(\alpha_i)_{i=1}^Nα=(αi​)i=1N​. The coefficients may have either sign. Write ∥α∥2=(∑iαi2)1/2\|\alpha\|_2=(\sum_i\alpha_i^2)^{1/2}∥α∥2​=(∑i​αi2​)1/2, and let σ=sup⁡α∈F∥α∥2\sigma=\sup_{\alpha\in\mathcal F}\|\alpha\|_2σ=supα∈F​∥α∥2​. The mission treats the case in which this coefficient scale is finite and positive. Let XiX_iXi​ be independent real random variables, with an individual interval [ri,ri+1][r_i,r_i+1][ri​,ri​+1] containing each XiX_iXi​ almost surely. The center rir_iri​ and the law of XiX_iXi​ may vary with iii. The object of interest is

Z=sup⁡α∈F∑i=1NαiXi.Z=\sup_{\alpha\in\mathcal F}\sum_{i=1}^N\alpha_iX_i.Z=α∈Fsup​i=1∑N​αi​Xi​.

A median MMM of ZZZ means that both P(Z≤M)P(Z\le M)P(Z≤M) and P(Z≥M)P(Z\ge M)P(Z≥M) are at least 1/21/21/2. This definition permits more than one median and makes no choice among them. With a bounded coefficient family and bounded coordinates, the supremum is finite for each input. The mission also assumes that ZZZ is measurable, because an uncountable supremum of measurable functions need not be measurable automatically. These are the mathematical conditions needed to give the displayed probability its ordinary meaning.

The supporting observation uses Talagrand's convex-hull distance. For a set AAA of coordinate tuples and a point xxx, form the binary vectors sss for which there is some y∈Ay\in Ay∈A such that every coordinate with si=0s_i=0si​=0 agrees between xxx and yyy. Let VA(x)V_A(x)VA​(x) be their convex hull in RN\mathbb R^NRN. The distance fc(A,x)f_c(A,x)fc​(A,x) is the Euclidean distance from zero to VA(x)V_A(x)VA​(x). If AAA is empty, this distance is +∞+\infty+∞. This convention preserves the intended meaning of a distance to an empty target Talagrand 1995, §4.1.

Formalization targets

For x∈[0,1]Nx\in[0,1]^Nx∈[0,1]N, put Zr(x)=sup⁡α∈F∑iαi(ri+xi)Z_r(x)=\sup_{\alpha\in\mathcal F}\sum_i\alpha_i(r_i+x_i)Zr​(x)=supα∈F​∑i​αi​(ri​+xi​) and A(a)={y∈[0,1]N:Zr(y)≤a}A(a)=\{y\in[0,1]^N:Z_r(y)\le a\}A(a)={y∈[0,1]N:Zr​(y)≤a}. The first milestone is Eq. (8.1.3): if A(a)A(a)A(a) is nonempty, then for every α∈F\alpha\in\mathcal Fα∈F some y∈A(a)y\in A(a)y∈A(a) has disagreement set I={i:yi≠xi}I=\{i:y_i\ne x_i\}I={i:yi​=xi​} with

∑i∈I∣αi∣≤∥α∥2 fc(A(a),x)≤σfc(A(a),x).\sum_{i\in I}|\alpha_i|\le\|\alpha\|_2\,f_c(A(a),x)\le\sigma f_c(A(a),x).i∈I∑​∣αi​∣≤∥α∥2​fc​(A(a),x)≤σfc​(A(a),x).

The second milestone is the deterministic observation in Eq. (8.1.2):

Zr(x)≤a+σfc(A(a),x).Z_r(x)\le a+\sigma f_c(A(a),x).Zr​(x)≤a+σfc​(A(a),x).

The goal, Theorem 8.1.1, asserts that every median MMM of ZZZ and every u>0u>0u>0 satisfy

P(∣Z−M∣≥u)≤4exp⁡ ⁣(−u24σ2).P(|Z-M|\ge u)\le 4\exp\!\left(-\frac{u^2}{4\sigma^2}\right).P(∣Z−M∣≥u)≤4exp(−4σ2u2​).

The third milestone is Theorem 13.2. For vectors viv_ivi​ in a real Banach space WWW, define the weak variance scale σW=(sup⁡w∗∈W∗, ∥w∗∥≤1∑iw∗(vi)2)1/2\sigma_W=(\sup_{w^*\in W^*,\,\|w^*\|\le1}\sum_i w^*(v_i)^2)^{1/2}σW​=(supw∗∈W∗,∥w∗∥≤1​∑i​w∗(vi​)2)1/2. If the independent real variables YiY_iYi​ satisfy ∣Yi∣≤1|Y_i|\le1∣Yi​∣≤1, the theorem bounds deviations of S=∥∑iYivi∥S=\|\sum_iY_iv_i\|S=∥∑i​Yi​vi​∥ from any median MMM:

P(∣S−M∣≥tσW)≤4exp⁡(−t2/16),t>0.P(|S-M|\ge t\sigma_W)\le4\exp(-t^2/16),\qquad t>0.P(∣S−M∣≥tσW​)≤4exp(−t2/16),t>0.

The statement is made for σW>0\sigma_W>0σW​>0. With σW=0\sigma_W=0σW​=0, the displayed event has threshold zero and probability one, while the right side falls below one for large ttt; the printed inequality therefore needs that qualification Talagrand 1995, p. 198.

What the results provide

Theorem 8.1.1 controls a supremum using only the largest Euclidean norm of its coefficient vectors. Its statement does not charge a factor for the cardinality of F\mathcal FF, so it applies equally to a finite collection and to an infinite measurable supremum. The coordinatewise interval condition allows different distributions and different centers. Theorem 13.2 converts the same concentration scale into a statement about Banach-space vector sums, where the dual unit ball supplies the coefficient family Talagrand 1995, pp. 156, 198.

Both results are proved in the paper. The work here is to formalize their exact statements and the distance interface used between them. The reusable pieces are the median convention, an extended-valued convex distance on arbitrary product spaces, a measurable supremum over a general set of coefficient vectors, and the weak variance scale for Banach-space vectors. None of the two claimed concentration inequalities is treated as already machine checked by this mission.

The difficult point

For a single fixed vector α\alphaα, bounded-coordinate concentration gives information about ∑iαiXi\sum_i\alpha_iX_i∑i​αi​Xi​. Applying that estimate to every member of F\mathcal FF and taking a union would introduce a dependence on the number of vectors. It would also give no useful bound for a genuinely infinite family without additional covering information. Talagrand's target avoids a cardinality term, so a direct collection of fixed-form estimates does not establish the stated result Talagrand 1995, §8.1.

The deterministic distance statement presents a second issue for formalization. Its set A(a)A(a)A(a) can be empty, and the paper's distance then has value +∞+\infty+∞. A real-valued infimum with a default value at the empty set would erase that distinction. The exact Euclidean norm also matters: the usual norm on a Lean function space need not be the paper's ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 norm. These choices affect the mathematical meaning of the milestone before any concentration argument begins.

Formalization scope

Coordinates are indexed by Fin N, corresponding to the paper's indices 1,…,N1,\ldots,N1,…,N. The independent observations live on the canonical product of their individual real-valued laws. Each law gives probability one to its own interval [ri,ri+1][r_i,r_i+1][ri​,ri​+1]; identical distribution is not assumed. The coefficient family is a set, not a finite list. Its nonemptiness, finite norm supremum and positive scale are explicit. Measurability of the real supremum is also explicit, following the paper's convention of ignoring measurability questions Talagrand 1995, pp. 81–82.

The mismatch vectors and their convex hull are defined over the whole underlying product type. The distance is an extended nonnegative real infimum of Euclidean lengths, so an empty target has distance +∞+\infty+∞. Eq. (8.1.2) uses extended arithmetic for the positive part of Zr(x)−aZ_r(x)-aZr​(x)−a, which keeps the empty-sublevel case meaningful. The probability bounds retain the paper's constants 444, 4σ24\sigma^24σ2, and 161616. A zero coefficient scale cannot be used to make the goal a vacuous division-by-zero statement; the Banach result likewise requires a positive weak variance scale.

The mission welcomes proofs of the two concentration statements, the deterministic distance observation, and supporting facts about the supremum's finiteness and measurability. General lemmas about product measures, medians, extended distances, and dual norms would be useful beyond this chapter. The statements do not restrict F\mathcal FF to a finite or countable subset, so a proof must address the general family under the explicit measurability assumption.

Selected references

  • Michel Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publications Mathématiques de l'IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. DOI: 10.1007/BF02699376.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems 1: Dual Averaging Keeps the Gap Below β_{k+1}D + (1/2σ)Σλᵢ²‖gᵢ‖²_*/βᵢ and Its Iterates BoundedResearch Paper

Motivation

Subgradient methods are the basic tool for minimizing a nonsmooth convex function when only a black-box oracle returning one subgradient per query is available. In the classical method the new subgradient enters the iterate with a weight that decreases over time, so information collected late is counted less than information collected early, and the method has no natural certificate of its own accuracy.

Yu. Nesterov's paper Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems (Math. Program. 120 (2009) 221–259; first circulated as a CORE discussion paper, March 2002, revised September 2005) introduces Dual Averaging (DA): the method accumulates all past subgradients with nondecreasing weights in the dual space and maps the aggregate back to the feasible set through a strongly convex prox-function. One analysis, Theorem 1 of the paper, gives at once an upper bound on a primal-dual gap, a bound on the iterates that holds even on unbounded feasible sets, and a bound on the averaged subgradients. From it the paper derives rates for minimization over simple sets, problems with functional constraints, saddle points, variational inequalities, and stochastic optimization. Dual Averaging later became a standard method in online learning and regularized stochastic optimization (e.g. L. Xiao, Dual averaging methods for regularized stochastic learning and online optimization, JMLR 11 (2010)).

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥, and E∗E^*E∗ its dual. The value of s∈E∗s \in E^*s∈E∗ at x∈Ex \in Ex∈E is ⟨s,x⟩\langle s, x\rangle⟨s,x⟩, and the dual norm is ∥s∥∗=max⁡{⟨s,x⟩:∥x∥≤1}\|s\|_* = \max\{\langle s, x\rangle : \|x\| \le 1\}∥s∥∗​=max{⟨s,x⟩:∥x∥≤1}. Balls are Br(x)={y:∥y−x∥≤r}B_r(x) = \{y : \|y - x\| \le r\}Br​(x)={y:∥y−x∥≤r}.

Let Q⊆EQ \subseteq EQ⊆E be closed and convex. A prox-function of QQQ is a function ddd, continuous on QQQ, that is strongly convex on QQQ with convexity parameter σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0:

d(αx+(1−α)y)≤αd(x)+(1−α)d(y)−12σα(1−α)∥x−y∥2,x,y∈Q, α∈[0,1].d(\alpha x + (1-\alpha)y) \le \alpha d(x) + (1-\alpha) d(y) - \tfrac12\sigma\alpha(1-\alpha)\|x - y\|^2, \qquad x, y \in Q,\ \alpha\in[0,1].d(αx+(1−α)y)≤αd(x)+(1−α)d(y)−21​σα(1−α)∥x−y∥2,x,y∈Q, α∈[0,1].

The prox-center x0∈Qx_0 \in Qx0​∈Q minimizes ddd on QQQ, and d(x0)=0d(x_0) = 0d(x0​)=0. Two examples: the Euclidean norm with d(x)=12∥x−x0∥22d(x) = \frac12\|x - x_0\|_2^2d(x)=21​∥x−x0​∥22​, and the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm on the simplex with the entropy d(x)=ln⁡n+∑ix(i)ln⁡x(i)d(x) = \ln n + \sum_i x^{(i)}\ln x^{(i)}d(x)=lnn+∑i​x(i)lnx(i).

For D≥0D \ge 0D≥0 and β>0\beta > 0β>0 set FD={x∈Q:d(x)≤D}F_D = \{x \in Q : d(x) \le D\}FD​={x∈Q:d(x)≤D} and

ξD(s)=max⁡x∈FD⟨s,x−x0⟩,Vβ(s)=max⁡x∈Q{⟨s,x−x0⟩−βd(x)},\xi_D(s) = \max_{x\in F_D}\langle s, x - x_0\rangle, \qquad V_\beta(s) = \max_{x\in Q}\{\langle s, x - x_0\rangle - \beta d(x)\},ξD​(s)=x∈FD​max​⟨s,x−x0​⟩,Vβ​(s)=x∈Qmax​{⟨s,x−x0​⟩−βd(x)},

and let πβ(s)=arg⁡min⁡x∈Q{−⟨s,x⟩+βd(x)}\pi_\beta(s) = \arg\min_{x\in Q}\{-\langle s, x\rangle + \beta d(x)\}πβ​(s)=argminx∈Q​{−⟨s,x⟩+βd(x)}.

Given sequences xi∈Ex_i \in Exi​∈E, gi∈E∗g_i \in E^*gi​∈E∗, λi\lambda_iλi​, write Sk=∑i=0kλiS_k = \sum_{i=0}^k \lambda_iSk​=∑i=0k​λi​, sk+1=∑i=0kλigis_{k+1} = \sum_{i=0}^k \lambda_i g_isk+1​=∑i=0k​λi​gi​ (s0=0s_0 = 0s0​=0), s^k+1=sk+1/Sk\hat s_{k+1} = s_{k+1}/S_ks^k+1​=sk+1​/Sk​, the gap function

δk(D)=max⁡x∈FD∑i=0kλi⟨gi,xi−x⟩,\delta_k(D) = \max_{x\in F_D}\sum_{i=0}^k \lambda_i\langle g_i, x_i - x\rangle,δk​(D)=x∈FD​max​i=0∑k​λi​⟨gi​,xi​−x⟩,

and the upper gap function Δk(β,D)=βD+∑i=0kλi⟨gi,xi−x0⟩+Vβ(−sk+1)\Delta_k(\beta, D) = \beta D + \sum_{i=0}^k \lambda_i\langle g_i, x_i - x_0\rangle + V_\beta(-s_{k+1})Δk​(β,D)=βD+∑i=0k​λi​⟨gi​,xi​−x0​⟩+Vβ​(−sk+1​).

The DA-scheme (2.14) starts at x0x_0x0​ with s0=0s_0 = 0s0​=0 and β0>0\beta_0 > 0β0​>0; at step k≥0k \ge 0k≥0 it receives gkg_kgk​ (the oracle answer at xkx_kxk​), chooses λk>0\lambda_k > 0λk​>0 and βk+1≥βk\beta_{k+1} \ge \beta_kβk+1​≥βk​, and sets

sk+1=sk+λkgk,xk+1=πβk+1(−sk+1).s_{k+1} = s_k + \lambda_k g_k, \qquad x_{k+1} = \pi_{\beta_{k+1}}(-s_{k+1}).sk+1​=sk​+λk​gk​,xk+1​=πβk+1​​(−sk+1​).

A point x∗∈Qx^* \in Qx∗∈Q is a solution in the sense (2.8) if ⟨gi,xi−x∗⟩≥0\langle g_i, x_i - x^*\rangle \ge 0⟨gi​,xi​−x∗⟩≥0 for all iii.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 9)

For every run of the DA-scheme, every k≥0k \ge 0k≥0 and every D≥0D \ge 0D≥0,

δk(D)≤Δk(βk+1,D)≤βk+1D+12σ∑i=0kλi2βi∥gi∥∗2;\delta_k(D) \le \Delta_k(\beta_{k+1}, D) \le \beta_{k+1} D + \frac{1}{2\sigma}\sum_{i=0}^k \frac{\lambda_i^2}{\beta_i}\|g_i\|_*^2;δk​(D)≤Δk​(βk+1​,D)≤βk+1​D+2σ1​i=0∑k​βi​λi2​​∥gi​∥∗2​;

if x∗x^*x∗ is a solution in the sense (2.8), then

12σ∥xk+1−x∗∥2≤d(x∗)+12σβk+1∑i=0kλi2βi∥gi∥∗2;\tfrac12\sigma\|x_{k+1} - x^*\|^2 \le d(x^*) + \frac{1}{2\sigma\beta_{k+1}}\sum_{i=0}^k \frac{\lambda_i^2}{\beta_i}\|g_i\|_*^2;21​σ∥xk+1​−x∗∥2≤d(x∗)+2σβk+1​1​i=0∑k​βi​λi2​​∥gi​∥∗2​;

and if moreover Br(x∗)⊆FDB_r(x^*) \subseteq F_DBr​(x∗)⊆FD​ for some r,D>0r, D > 0r,D>0, then

∥s^k+1∥∗≤1rSk[βk+1D+12σ∑i=0kλi2βi∥gi∥∗2].\|\hat s_{k+1}\|_* \le \frac{1}{r S_k}\Big[\beta_{k+1}D + \frac{1}{2\sigma}\sum_{i=0}^k \frac{\lambda_i^2}{\beta_i}\|g_i\|_*^2\Big].∥s^k+1​∥∗​≤rSk​1​[βk+1​D+2σ1​i=0∑k​βi​λi2​​∥gi​∥∗2​].

The theorem leaves the step sizes λk\lambda_kλk​ and the parameters βk\beta_kβk​ free; every rate in the paper is obtained by choosing them.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: Lemma 6 (unique minimizer of a strongly convex function, quadratic growth (9.5), p. 36); Lemma 1 (convexity, differentiability, ∇Vβ(s)=πβ(s)−x0\nabla V_\beta(s) = \pi_\beta(s) - x_0∇Vβ​(s)=πβ​(s)−x0​ and its 1/(βσ)1/(\beta\sigma)1/(βσ)-Lipschitz continuity, p. 7); (2.5) Vβ(s+δ)≤Vβ(s)+⟨δ,∇Vβ(s)⟩+12σβ∥δ∥∗2V_\beta(s+\delta) \le V_\beta(s) + \langle\delta, \nabla V_\beta(s)\rangle + \frac{1}{2\sigma\beta}\|\delta\|_*^2Vβ​(s+δ)≤Vβ​(s)+⟨δ,∇Vβ​(s)⟩+2σβ1​∥δ∥∗2​; (2.6) Vβ(δ)≤12σβ∥δ∥∗2V_\beta(\delta) \le \frac{1}{2\sigma\beta}\|\delta\|_*^2Vβ​(δ)≤2σβ1​∥δ∥∗2​; (2.2) monotonicity of VβV_\betaVβ​ in β\betaβ; Lemma 2 ξD(s)≤βD+Vβ(s)\xi_D(s) \le \beta D + V_\beta(s)ξD​(s)≤βD+Vβ​(s) (p. 8); (2.11) the representation δk(D)=∑iλi⟨gi,xi−x0⟩+ξD(−sk+1)\delta_k(D) = \sum_i\lambda_i\langle g_i, x_i - x_0\rangle + \xi_D(-s_{k+1})δk​(D)=∑i​λi​⟨gi​,xi​−x0​⟩+ξD​(−sk+1​); (2.13) δk(D)≤Δk(β,D)\delta_k(D) \le \Delta_k(\beta, D)δk​(D)≤Δk​(β,D); and (2.18), the telescoped estimate along the scheme (p. 10).

Significance

Theorem 1 is the single estimate behind the whole paper. With βk\beta_kβk​ growing like k\sqrt kk​ it gives the O(1/k)O(1/\sqrt k)O(1/k​) rate of Dual Averaging for nonsmooth convex minimization with simple or weighted averages (Theorems 2 and 3), and through the gap δk(D)\delta_k(D)δk​(D) it gives primal-dual certificates for saddle-point problems and variational inequalities (§§3–5) and the stochastic version (§6, the companion mission). Part 2 is the reason the method can run on unbounded feasible sets: the iterates stay in a ball around any solution. Part 3 bounds the averaged subgradients, which yields approximate dual solutions.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as a search of Mathlib and the Prove2Me catalog shows (October 2026), none of its statements is machine-checked: Mathlib has strong convexity (StrongConvexOn) and Fréchet derivatives, but no prox-functions in an arbitrary norm, no Danskin-type differentiability of a maximum, and no analysis of Dual Averaging. A formalization produces these as reusable pieces: Lemma 6 in an arbitrary finite-dimensional norm, the smoothness of VβV_\betaVβ​ (a form of the duality between strong convexity and Lipschitz gradients of the conjugate), and the definitions of the scheme and its gap functions, on which the paper's §§3–6 can then be built.

Difficulty

The bookkeeping of the proof is short; the analytic content sits in Lemma 1 and Lemma 6. Lemma 1 asserts differentiability of a function defined as a maximum over a possibly unbounded set, in an arbitrary norm, where the gradient lives in E∗∗E^{**}E∗∗ and no inner product is available to identify it with a vector. The prox-function is only continuous and strongly convex, never assumed differentiable (footnote 2, p. 5), so first-order optimality conditions for πβ\pi_\betaπβ​ are not available. Lemma 6's existence claim needs boundedness of the level sets of ddd in finite dimension; the printed argument ends with "this contradicts continuity of ddd", which does not by itself close the argument, so a complete proof has to supply the missing step. Finally, (2.18) pairs a sum from i=0i = 0i=0 with a sum from i=1i = 1i=1 and depends on x0x_0x0​ being the prox-center, so an off-by-one in the indices of the scheme changes the statement.

Formalization scope

EEE is a finite-dimensional real normed space with an arbitrary norm; E∗E^*E∗ is StrongDual ℝ E with the operator norm, which is ∥⋅∥∗\|\cdot\|_*∥⋅∥∗​, and ⟨s,x⟩\langle s, x\rangle⟨s,x⟩ is s x. No inner product is used, so the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​/entropy example remains an instance. The prox-function is a real function on EEE of which only its values on QQQ are used, strongly convex in Mathlib's sense StrongConvexOn Q σ d (exactly (1.8)), with σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0 (the paper's "σ≥0\sigma \ge 0σ≥0" at (1.8) is corrected by its Definition 1). The maxima ξD\xi_DξD​, VβV_\betaVβ​, δk\delta_kδk​ are real suprema, finite for D≥0D \ge 0D≥0, β>0\beta > 0β>0; every statement assumes these ranges, including Lemma 2 and (2.13), where the page writes β≥0\beta \ge 0β≥0 but V0V_0V0​ is not defined. The argmin map π\piπ is a hypothesis on a given map, not a construction, and the run of (2.14) starts at the prox-center and takes the oracle answers gkg_kgk​ as free data. Indices start at 000. Pages and equation numbers are those of the CORE discussion-paper version (September 2005) used as source, not the journal's pp. 221–259.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the run must set xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ to the argmin point πβk+1(−sk+1)\pi_{\beta_{k+1}}(-s_{k+1})πβk+1​​(−sk+1​) and π\piπ must carry its argmin property, without which the statements would be false, and the setting is satisfiable (E = ℝ, Q=RQ = ℝQ=R, d(x)=x2/2d(x) = x^2/2d(x)=x2/2, σ=1\sigma = 1σ=1, πβ(s)=s/β\pi_\beta(s) = s/\betaπβ​(s)=s/β), so the theorem is not vacuous.

Needed infrastructure: Lemma 6 in an arbitrary norm; a Danskin-type differentiability lemma for VβV_\betaVβ​; Lipschitz continuity of the argmin map; suprema manipulations for ξD\xi_DξD​, VβV_\betaVβ​, δk\delta_kδk​ under boundedness. Contributions of any of the milestones, of general lemmas on strongly convex functions in normed spaces, and of the remaining parts of Theorem 1 are welcome.

Selected references

  • Yu. Nesterov, Primal-dual subgradient methods for convex problems, Math. Program. 120 (2009) 221–259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0149-x
  • L. Xiao, Dual averaging methods for regularized stochastic learning and online optimization, J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11 (2010) 2543–2596. https://jmlr.org/papers/v11/xiao10a.html
  • Yu. Nesterov, Smooth minimization of non-smooth functions, Math. Program. 103 (2005) 127–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-004-0552-5
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Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces VIII: The Longest Increasing Subsequence — Gaussian Concentration of L_N around Its Median MTextbook

Why the longest increasing subsequence

Pick NNN independent points X1,…,XNX_1, \dots, X_NX1​,…,XN​ uniformly in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and let LNL_NLN​ be the length of the longest increasing subsequence. Because the points are almost surely distinct, LNL_NLN​ has the law of the longest increasing subsequence of a uniform random permutation of {1,…,N}\{1, \dots, N\}{1,…,N}. This is Ulam's problem, one of the most studied random combinatorial quantities. Hammersley (1972) showed ELN/N\mathbb E L_N / \sqrt NELN​/N​ converges, and Vershik–Kerov and Logan–Shepp (1977) identified the limit as 222. That leaves the size of the fluctuations of LNL_NLN​ around its typical value.

Timeline.

  • Frieze (1991, [F] in the paper) and Bollobás–Brightwell (1992, [B-B]) proved concentration of LNL_NLN​ around its mean with martingale methods, on deviation scales larger than N1/4N^{1/4}N1/4.
  • Talagrand (1995), Section 7.1, derived from his convex hull inequality a two-sided Gaussian-type bound around the median on the scale MN≍N1/4\sqrt{M_N} \asymp N^{1/4}MN​​≍N1/4, with explicit constants and no logarithmic loss. This is the target of the mission.
  • Baik, Deift and Johansson (1999) showed that the true fluctuations are of order N1/6N^{1/6}N1/6, with Tracy–Widom limit law, so Talagrand's scale is not sharp. Its value is that it comes from a short, general principle.

Section 7.2 of the same paper applies the same idea to the longest common subsequence of two random words, a quantity tied to the edit distance used in genetics and speech recognition.

Setting

Let Ω=[0,1]\Omega = [0,1]Ω=[0,1] and N≥0N \ge 0N≥0. For x=(x1,…,xN)∈ΩNx = (x_1, \dots, x_N) \in \Omega^Nx=(x1​,…,xN​)∈ΩN, LN(x)L_N(x)LN​(x) is the largest integer ppp for which there are indices i1<⋯<ipi_1 < \dots < i_pi1​<⋯<ip​ with xi1≤⋯≤xipx_{i_1} \le \dots \le x_{i_p}xi1​​≤⋯≤xip​​. For a>0a > 0a>0, the level set is A(a)={x∈ΩN; LN(x)≤a}A(a) = \{x \in \Omega^N ;\ L_N(x) \le a\}A(a)={x∈ΩN; LN​(x)≤a}.

Fix a probability μ\muμ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] without atoms (Lebesgue measure, for instance) and let P=μ⊗NP = \mu^{\otimes N}P=μ⊗N be the product probability on ΩN\Omega^NΩN; the coordinates are the random points XiX_iXi​. A median of LNL_NLN​ is a number MMM with P(LN≤M)≥1/2P(L_N \le M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≤M)≥1/2 and P(LN≥M)≥1/2P(L_N \ge M) \ge 1/2P(LN​≥M)≥1/2.

The tool is Talagrand's convex hull distance. For A⊆ΩNA \subseteq \Omega^NA⊆ΩN and x∈ΩNx \in \Omega^Nx∈ΩN, let UA(x)U_A(x)UA​(x) be the set of s∈{0,1}Ns \in \{0,1\}^Ns∈{0,1}N for which some y∈Ay \in Ay∈A agrees with xxx at every coordinate iii with si=0s_i = 0si​=0; let VA(x)V_A(x)VA​(x) be its convex hull in RN\mathbb R^NRN; and let fc(A,x)f_c(A,x)fc​(A,x) be the Euclidean distance from 000 to VA(x)V_A(x)VA​(x) (with fc(A,x)=+∞f_c(A,x) = +\inftyfc​(A,x)=+∞ if A=∅A = \emptysetA=∅).

A function LN:ΩN→NL_N : \Omega^N \to \mathbb NLN​:ΩN→N on an arbitrary probability space (Ω,μ)(\Omega, \mu)(Ω,μ) is a configuration function if, for every xxx, some set JJJ of exactly LN(x)L_N(x)LN​(x) coordinates satisfies LN(y)≥card⁡{i∈J; yi=xi}L_N(y) \ge \operatorname{card}\{i \in J ;\ y_i = x_i\}LN​(y)≥card{i∈J; yi​=xi​} for all yyy.

For two sequences x=(x1,…,xN)x = (x_1, \dots, x_N)x=(x1​,…,xN​) and y=(y1,…,yN′)y = (y_1, \dots, y_{N'})y=(y1​,…,yN′​), LN,N′(x;y)L_{N,N'}(x;y)LN,N′​(x;y) is the largest ppp with i1<⋯<ipi_1 < \dots < i_pi1​<⋯<ip​, j1<⋯<jpj_1 < \dots < j_pj1​<⋯<jp​ and xiℓ=yjℓx_{i_\ell} = y_{j_\ell}xiℓ​​=yjℓ​​ for all ℓ≤p\ell \le pℓ≤p.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1.2 (p. 153)

For every median MMM of LNL_NLN​ and every u>0u > 0u>0,

P(LN≥M+u)≤2exp⁡(−u24(M+u)),P(LN≤M−u)≤2exp⁡(−u24M).P(L_N \ge M + u) \le 2\exp\Big(-\frac{u^2}{4(M+u)}\Big), \qquad P(L_N \le M - u) \le 2\exp\Big(-\frac{u^2}{4M}\Big).P(LN​≥M+u)≤2exp(−4(M+u)u2​),P(LN​≤M−u)≤2exp(−4Mu2​).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1.1 (p. 153). For a>0a > 0a>0 and every xxx, a≥LN(x)−fc(A(a),x)LN(x)a \ge L_N(x) - f_c(A(a),x)\sqrt{L_N(x)}a≥LN​(x)−fc​(A(a),x)LN​(x)​; in particular LN(x)≥a+vL_N(x) \ge a + vLN​(x)≥a+v implies fc(A(a),x)≥v/a+vf_c(A(a),x) \ge v/\sqrt{a+v}fc​(A(a),x)≥v/a+v​.
  2. Theorem 7.1.3 (p. 154). The two bounds of the goal hold for every configuration function on any product probability space.
  3. Eq. (7.2.3) (p. 155). For the longest common subsequence L(x)L(x)L(x) of the two halves of x∈[0,1]N+N′x \in [0,1]^{N+N'}x∈[0,1]N+N′: a≥L(x)−22 fc(A(a),x)L(x)a \ge L(x) - 2\sqrt2\, f_c(A(a),x)\sqrt{L(x)}a≥L(x)−22​fc​(A(a),x)L(x)​.
  4. Theorem 7.2.1 (p. 154). For two independent i.i.d. sequences with common real law and a median MMM of LN,N′L_{N,N'}LN,N′​:
P(LN,N′≥M+u)≤2exp⁡(−u232(M+u)),P(LN,N′≤M−u)≤2exp⁡(−u232M).P(L_{N,N'} \ge M + u) \le 2\exp\Big(-\frac{u^2}{32(M+u)}\Big), \qquad P(L_{N,N'} \le M - u) \le 2\exp\Big(-\frac{u^2}{32M}\Big).P(LN,N′​≥M+u)≤2exp(−32(M+u)u2​),P(LN,N′​≤M−u)≤2exp(−32Mu2​).

Significance

The result. Since MNM_NMN​ is of order N\sqrt NN​, the goal confines LNL_NLN​ to a window of width of order N1/4N^{1/4}N1/4 around its median with Gaussian-type tails. For uuu much larger than MMM the upper bound becomes exponential in uuu, the natural tail of a quantity bounded by the size of a witnessing configuration. Theorem 7.1.3 isolates what is used: every integer quantity certified by a configuration of exactly its own size has the same concentration. This abstraction became the notion of certifiable functions used widely in random graph theory and probabilistic combinatorics (see the treatment of Talagrand's inequality in Alon–Spencer, The Probabilistic Method). For the longest common subsequence, the bound is useful when the alphabet is large and M≪NM \ll NM≪N, where it improves on Azuma's inequality.

Formalizing it. All four results are proved in the paper; none is formalized in Lean as far as a search of the Prove2Me corpus shows. A finite-alphabet certifiable-function inequality (Talagrand.certifiable_concentration) has been posed on the platform as an open statement; it uses a Lipschitz hypothesis and no median, so it is a relative of Theorem 7.1.3, not the same statement. The mission produces a general-Ω\OmegaΩ formalization of the configuration-function principle, its application to the continuous Ulam problem, and the common-subsequence variant.

Difficulty

The deterministic inequalities (Lemma 7.1.1, Eq. (7.2.3)) relate the Euclidean distance fcf_cfc​, defined through a convex hull in RN\mathbb R^NRN, to purely combinatorial counts of disagreeing coordinates; this needs the infimum defining fcf_cfc​ to be attained and a duality between the convex hull and its extreme points. The probabilistic step rests on Talagrand's convex hull inequality (Theorem 4.1.1, Eq. (4.1.2)), ∫exp⁡(fc2(A,x)/4) dP(x)≤1/P(A)\int \exp(f_c^2(A,x)/4)\, dP(x) \le 1/P(A)∫exp(fc2​(A,x)/4)dP(x)≤1/P(A), for a general product probability; that inequality is not in Mathlib. A bounded-difference (Azuma or McDiarmid) argument does not suffice: changing one point changes LNL_NLN​ by at most 111, which gives deviations of order N\sqrt NN​, not M\sqrt MM​. The point of the configuration property is that only the LN(x)L_N(x)LN​(x) coordinates of a witness matter.

Formalization scope

  • Product space. ΩN\Omega^NΩN is Fin N → Ω (0-based), and PPP is Measure.pi (fun _ => μ). For the goal, Ω\OmegaΩ is unitInterval and μ\muμ is any probability measure on it with μ{t}=0\mu\{t\} = 0μ{t}=0 for all ttt. Theorem 7.2.1 uses the product of Measure.pi measures on (Fin N → ℝ) × (Fin N' → ℝ) for a probability μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR. Eq. (7.2.3) lives on Fin (N + N') → unitInterval, with the first NNN coordinates forming the first sequence.
  • Increasing means weakly increasing (≤\le≤), as printed. Index sequences are strictly increasing maps Fin p → Fin N. LNL_NLN​ and LN,N′L_{N,N'}LN,N′​ take values in ℕ.
  • Convex hull distance. fcf_cfc​ takes values in ℝ≥0∞, with the Euclidean norm written out as ∑isi2\sqrt{\sum_i s_i^2}∑i​si2​​. Mathlib's default norm on Fin N → ℝ is the sup norm and would give a different, much weaker statement. The deterministic inequalities are stated in the rearranged form L≤a+c fcLL \le a + c\, f_c \sqrt LL≤a+cfc​L​ in [0,+∞][0, +\infty][0,+∞].
  • Median: P(Z≤M)≥1/2P(Z \le M) \ge 1/2P(Z≤M)≥1/2 and P(Z≥M)≥1/2P(Z \ge M) \ge 1/2P(Z≥M)≥1/2; the statements hold for every median.
  • Measurability. The paper treats all functions as measurable. In Theorem 7.1.3 this convention is the explicit hypothesis that the configuration function is measurable. The concrete LNL_NLN​ and LN,N′L_{N,N'}LN,N′​ carry no hypothesis.
  • Degenerate corner. When M=0M = 0M=0, Lean's division gives u2/(4M)=0u^2/(4M) = 0u2/(4M)=0, so the lower-tail bound reads "≤2\le 2≤2". The event {L≤−u}\{L \le -u\}{L≤−u} is then empty, so no content is lost.
  • No trivialization. Using the sup norm in fcf_cfc​, using a real-valued infimum (which is 000 on an empty A(a)A(a)A(a)), or putting the conclusion of Theorem 4.1.1 among the hypotheses would each make a statement trivial or empty. None of these is done.

The mission uses the shared definition of the convex hull distance from Section 4.1. A general-Ω\OmegaΩ proof of Eq. (4.1.2) and of the attainment of fcf_cfc​ would be reusable for every Part II chapter of the paper. Contributions are welcome in particular for the deterministic Lemma 7.1.1 and Eq. (7.2.3), the measurability of LNL_NLN​ and LN,N′L_{N,N'}LN,N′​, and the reduction of Theorem 7.1.2 to Theorem 7.1.3.

Selected references

  • M. Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publ. Math. IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699376
  • A. Frieze, On the length of the longest monotone subsequence in a random permutation, Ann. Appl. Probab. 1 (1991), 301–305. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177005939
  • B. Bollobás, G. Brightwell, The height of a random partial order: concentration of measure, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2 (1992), 1009–1018. https://projecteuclid.org/journals/annals-of-applied-probability/volume-2/issue-4
  • A. M. Vershik, S. V. Kerov, Asymptotics of the Plancherel measure of the symmetric group and the limiting form of Young tables, Soviet Math. Dokl. 18 (1977), 527–531.
  • J. Baik, P. Deift, K. Johansson, On the distribution of the length of the longest increasing subsequence of random permutations, J. Amer. Math. Soc. 12 (1999), 1119–1178. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0894-0347-99-00307-0
  • N. Alon, J. H. Spencer, The Probabilistic Method, 4th ed., Wiley, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119062042
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Complexity TheoryLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On Adaptive-Step Primal-Dual Interior-Point Algorithms for Linear Programming 2: The Adaptive-Step Algorithm in N∞(β) or N∞⁻(β) with γ ≤ 2(1 − β) Attains Precision t in O(nt) IterationsResearch Paper

Why wide neighbourhoods

Primal-dual interior-point methods solve a linear program by following, approximately, the central path of strictly feasible primal-dual pairs whose complementarity products xjsjx_js_jxj​sj​ are all equal. Every such method confines its iterates to a neighbourhood of that path, and the neighbourhood governs both the theory and the practice. The first primal-dual path-following algorithm, by Kojima, Mizuno and Yoshise (1989), used the one-sided neighbourhood {xjsj≥12 xTs/n}\{x_js_j \ge \tfrac12\,x^Ts/n\}{xj​sj​≥21​xTs/n} and attained precision ttt in O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) iterations. Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise and Monteiro–Adler then switched to the narrow Euclidean neighbourhood N2(β)\mathcal N_2(\beta)N2​(β) and improved the bound to O(n t)O(\sqrt n\,t)O(n​t). Practical codes nevertheless favour wide neighbourhoods, which allow long steps.

Mizuno, Todd and Ye (Cornell ORIE Technical Report 944, 1990, revised 1991; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 18(4), 1993) analyse adaptive-step algorithms, which at every iteration take the longest step that keeps the iterate in the neighbourhood. This mission formalizes their §4: the adaptive-step algorithm in the wide neighbourhoods N∞(β)\mathcal N_\infty(\beta)N∞​(β) and N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β) attains precision ttt in O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) iterations. With β\betaβ close to 111, N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β) contains almost all of the strictly feasible set.

Setting

Fix n≥1n\ge1n≥1, m≥0m\ge0m≥0, A∈Rm×nA\in\mathbb R^{m\times n}A∈Rm×n, b∈Rmb\in\mathbb R^mb∈Rm, c∈Rnc\in\mathbb R^nc∈Rn, and consider

(P) min⁡ cTx  s.t. Ax=b, x≥0,(D) max⁡ bTy  s.t. ATy+s=c, s≥0.\text{(P)}\ \min\ c^Tx\ \text{ s.t. } Ax=b,\ x\ge0,\qquad \text{(D)}\ \max\ b^Ty\ \text{ s.t. } A^Ty+s=c,\ s\ge0 .(P) min cTx  s.t. Ax=b, x≥0,(D) max bTy  s.t. ATy+s=c, s≥0.

The strictly feasible pairs F0\mathcal F^0F0 are the (x,s)(x,s)(x,s) with x>0x>0x>0, s>0s>0s>0, Ax=bAx=bAx=b, and ATy+s=cA^Ty+s=cATy+s=c for some yyy. For such a pair the duality gap is xTsx^TsxTs, and the duality measure is μ=xTs/n\mu=x^Ts/nμ=xTs/n. Write X=diag⁡(x)X=\operatorname{diag}(x)X=diag(x), S=diag⁡(s)S=\operatorname{diag}(s)S=diag(s) and e=(1,…,1)Te=(1,\dots,1)^Te=(1,…,1)T.

Norms: ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm, ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ the maximum norm, and ∥z∥∞−:=∥z−∥∞\|z\|^-_\infty:=\|z^-\|_\infty∥z∥∞−​:=∥z−∥∞​, ∥z∥∞+:=∥z+∥∞\|z\|^+_\infty:=\|z^+\|_\infty∥z∥∞+​:=∥z+∥∞​ with (z−)j=min⁡{zj,0}(z^-)_j=\min\{z_j,0\}(z−)j​=min{zj​,0} and (z+)j=max⁡{zj,0}(z^+)_j=\max\{z_j,0\}(z+)j​=max{zj​,0}. For β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) the wide neighbourhoods are

N∞(β)={(x,s)∈F0: ∥Xs−μe∥∞≤βμ},N∞−(β)={(x,s)∈F0: ∥Xs−μe∥∞−≤βμ}.\mathcal N_\infty(\beta)=\{(x,s)\in\mathcal F^0:\ \|Xs-\mu e\|_\infty\le\beta\mu\},\qquad \mathcal N^-_\infty(\beta)=\{(x,s)\in\mathcal F^0:\ \|Xs-\mu e\|^-_\infty\le\beta\mu\}.N∞​(β)={(x,s)∈F0: ∥Xs−μe∥∞​≤βμ},N∞−​(β)={(x,s)∈F0: ∥Xs−μe∥∞−​≤βμ}.

The second says only that xjsj≥(1−β)μx_js_j\ge(1-\beta)\muxj​sj​≥(1−β)μ for every jjj.

The search direction d=(dx,ds)d=(d_x,d_s)d=(dx​,ds​) with centering parameter γ\gammaγ solves, for some dyd_ydy​,

Sdx+Xds=γμe−Xs,Adx=0,ATdy+ds=0,(2)Sd_x+Xd_s=\gamma\mu e-Xs,\qquad Ad_x=0,\qquad A^Td_y+d_s=0, \tag{2}Sdx​+Xds​=γμe−Xs,Adx​=0,ATdy​+ds​=0,(2)

and the step is x(θ)=x+θdxx(\theta)=x+\theta d_xx(θ)=x+θdx​, s(θ)=s+θdss(\theta)=s+\theta d_ss(θ)=s+θds​. The scaled quantities p=X−1/2S1/2dxp=X^{-1/2}S^{1/2}d_xp=X−1/2S1/2dx​, q=X1/2S−1/2dsq=X^{1/2}S^{-1/2}d_sq=X1/2S−1/2ds​, r=(XS)−1/2(γμe−Xs)r=(XS)^{-1/2}(\gamma\mu e-Xs)r=(XS)−1/2(γμe−Xs) satisfy p+q=rp+q=rp+q=r and pTq=0p^Tq=0pTq=0. The componentwise product Pq=(pjqj)jPq=(p_jq_j)_jPq=(pj​qj​)j​ is the second-order term DxdsD_xd_sDx​ds​.

Algorithm 2 with neighbourhood N\mathcal NN and γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) starts at (x0,s0)∈N(x^0,s^0)\in\mathcal N(x0,s0)∈N with (x0)Ts0≤2t(x^0)^Ts^0\le2^t(x0)Ts0≤2t. While (xk)Tsk>2−t(x^k)^Ts^k>2^{-t}(xk)Tsk>2−t, it computes ddd from (2), takes the largest θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ such that (x(θ),s(θ))∈N(x(\theta),s(\theta))\in\mathcal N(x(θ),s(θ))∈N for all θ∈[0,θˉ]\theta\in[0,\bar\theta]θ∈[0,θˉ], and sets (xk+1,sk+1)=(x(θˉ),s(θˉ))(x^{k+1},s^{k+1})=(x(\bar\theta),s(\bar\theta))(xk+1,sk+1)=(x(θˉ),s(θˉ)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 with an explicit iteration count

Let β,γ∈(0,1)\beta,\gamma\in(0,1)β,γ∈(0,1) with γ≤2(1−β)\gamma\le2(1-\beta)γ≤2(1−β), and let N\mathcal NN be N∞(β)\mathcal N_\infty(\beta)N∞​(β) or N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β). Every run of Algorithm 2 reaches (xk)Tsk≤2−t(x^k)^Ts^k\le 2^{-t}(xk)Tsk≤2−t for some

k ≤ ⌈ln⁡2⋅n t2βγ(1−γ)⌉.k\ \le\ \Big\lceil\frac{\ln2\cdot n\,t}{2\beta\gamma(1-\gamma)}\Big\rceil .k ≤ ⌈2βγ(1−γ)ln2⋅nt​⌉.

The paper states "O(nt)O(nt)O(nt) iterations"; the count above is the one its inequality (15) yields.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • Lemma 1(b): −∥r∥2/4≤pjqj≤rj2/4-\|r\|^2/4\le p_jq_j\le r_j^2/4−∥r∥2/4≤pj​qj​≤rj2​/4 for each jjj.
  • Lemma 1(c): ∥Pq∥∞−≤∥r∥2/4≤n∥r∥∞2/4\|Pq\|^-_\infty\le\|r\|^2/4\le n\|r\|^2_\infty/4∥Pq∥∞−​≤∥r∥2/4≤n∥r∥∞2​/4, ∥Pq∥∞+≤∥r∥∞2/4\|Pq\|^+_\infty\le\|r\|^2_\infty/4∥Pq∥∞+​≤∥r∥∞2​/4, ∥Pq∥∞≤∥r∥2/4\|Pq\|_\infty\le\|r\|^2/4∥Pq∥∞​≤∥r∥2/4.
  • Lemma 2(c): if γ≤2(1−β)\gamma\le2(1-\beta)γ≤2(1−β) and (x,s)∈N∞−(β)(x,s)\in\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)(x,s)∈N∞−​(β) then ∥r∥2≤nμ\|r\|^2\le n\mu∥r∥2≤nμ; in N∞(β)\mathcal N_\infty(\beta)N∞​(β), ∥r∥∞2≤(1+β)μ\|r\|_\infty^2\le(1+\beta)\mu∥r∥∞2​≤(1+β)μ.
  • Lemma 5: θˉ≥θ2=min⁡{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞}\bar\theta\ge\theta_2=\min\{1,\beta\gamma\mu/\|Pq\|_\infty\}θˉ≥θ2​=min{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞​} in N∞(β)\mathcal N_\infty(\beta)N∞​(β), and θˉ≥θ2−=min⁡{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞−}\bar\theta\ge\theta_2^-=\min\{1,\beta\gamma\mu/\|Pq\|^-_\infty\}θˉ≥θ2−​=min{1,βγμ/∥Pq∥∞−​} in N∞−(β)\mathcal N_\infty^-(\beta)N∞−​(β).
  • Proof of Theorem 2: θ2−≥θ2≥4βγ/n\theta_2^-\ge\theta_2\ge4\beta\gamma/nθ2−​≥θ2​≥4βγ/n (for n≥2n\ge2n≥2).
  • (15): μk+1≤(1−4βγ(1−γ)/n)μk\mu^{k+1}\le\big(1-4\beta\gamma(1-\gamma)/n\big)\mu^kμk+1≤(1−4βγ(1−γ)/n)μk.

Significance

Theorem 2 shows that the adaptive long-step method in a neighbourhood covering almost all of F0\mathcal F^0F0 keeps the worst-case complexity of the original Kojima–Mizuno–Yoshise algorithm. Its per-iteration analysis (Lemma 5, Lemma 1(c)) is also what the paper reuses for its potential-reduction variant (§5, Theorem 3) and for its probabilistic explanation of why such methods take far fewer iterations in practice (§6). Lemma 1(b)–(c) are the standard bounds on the second-order Newton term, and they recur throughout the interior-point literature.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as the platform's corpus shows, none of them has a machine-checked proof: there is no formalization of the wide neighbourhoods N∞\mathcal N_\inftyN∞​, N∞−\mathcal N_\infty^-N∞−​, of the Newton system (2), or of an adaptive-step iteration. A complete development yields a reusable layer for primal-dual interior-point analysis in standard form (the neighbourhoods, the scaled direction, the second-order bounds) and the first formally verified iteration bound for a long-step primal-dual method.

Difficulty

Most of the steps are finite-dimensional inequalities. The sticking points are the following.

  • The bound pjqj≥−∥r∥2/4p_jq_j\ge-\|r\|^2/4pj​qj​≥−∥r∥2/4 uses the orthogonality pTq=0p^Tq=0pTq=0, which comes from Adx=0Ad_x=0Adx​=0 and ds=−ATdyd_s=-A^Td_yds​=−ATdy​. Those relations hold only for a solution of the full system (2), not for the first equation alone.
  • Lemma 5 needs every point of the segment [0,θ2][0,\theta_2][0,θ2​] to lie in the neighbourhood, including strict positivity of x(θ)x(\theta)x(θ) and s(θ)s(\theta)s(θ) and dual feasibility. Positivity of the products alone does not give positivity of the factors without a continuity argument along the segment.
  • "The largest θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ" is a maximum over a set defined by infinitely many conditions. The theorem needs only that θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ dominates θ2\theta_2θ2​, but the formal run must say what θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ is.
  • Converting the per-iteration contraction (15) into the explicit count needs (1−δ)k≤e−kδ(1-\delta)^k\le e^{-k\delta}(1−δ)k≤e−kδ, real powers of 222, and a ceiling.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin n → ℝ, with coordinates indexed 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1, and A : Matrix (Fin m) (Fin n) ℝ. Mathlib's default norm on Fin n → ℝ is the sup norm, so the Euclidean norm norm2 and the norms normInf, normInfNeg, normInfPos are defined explicitly. μ\muμ divides by nnn as a real number. Here log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm and 2t2^t2t is a real power with t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R.

Committed conventions and repairs:

  • The direction is "any (dx,dy,ds)(d_x,d_y,d_s)(dx​,dy​,ds​) solving (2)". No rank assumption on AAA is made.
  • "The largest θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ" is IsGreatest of the set of admissible step lengths, and θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ is not capped at 111. When no maximum exists (always the case for n=1n=1n=1, where Pq=0Pq=0Pq=0), no iteration exists. A run is then possible only if it has already stopped, and the theorem holds trivially. A sorry-free check confirms that an iteration exists for n=2n=2n=2.
  • A run is a pair of sequences that starts as required and makes one iteration from every iterate with (xk)Tsk>2−t(x^k)^Ts^k>2^{-t}(xk)Tsk>2−t. Its behaviour after the stopping test is unconstrained.
  • In θ2\theta_2θ2​ and θ2−\theta_2^-θ2−​, a zero norm makes the quotient +∞+\infty+∞ and the minimum 111. Since Lean's real division by zero is 000, this case is defined explicitly.
  • The bound θ2≥4βγ/n\theta_2\ge4\beta\gamma/nθ2​≥4βγ/n is stated for n≥2n\ge2n≥2. At n=1n=1n=1 it can fail (e.g. β=1/2\beta=1/2β=1/2, γ=0.9\gamma=0.9γ=0.9), and Algorithm 2 makes no iterations there.
  • The goal covers both neighbourhoods. A goal for N∞−\mathcal N^-_\inftyN∞−​ alone would be weaker than the paper.
  • Lemma 1 assumes only x,s>0x,s>0x,s>0 and γ∈[0,1]\gamma\in[0,1]γ∈[0,1] of the pair, which is all its statement uses.

The goal is not to be read with a hidden constant. A statement of the form "there is CCC with at most CntCntCnt iterations", with CCC allowed to depend on the instance, would be trivially true and is ruled out by the explicit count. Lemma 1(a) and Lemma 2(a), 2(b) belong to the paper's predictor–corrector analysis, which is a separate mission.

Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, helper lemmas about the norms on Fin n → ℝ, and the run-to-count argument.

Selected references

  • S. Mizuno, M. J. Todd, Y. Ye, On adaptive-step primal-dual interior-point algorithms for linear programming, Cornell ORIE Technical Report No. 944 (1990, rev. 1991); Mathematics of Operations Research 18(4):964–981, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.964
  • M. Kojima, S. Mizuno, A. Yoshise, A primal-dual interior point algorithm for linear programming, in N. Megiddo (ed.), Progress in Mathematical Programming, Springer, 1989, pp. 29–47. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-9617-8_2
  • R. D. C. Monteiro, I. Adler, Interior path following primal-dual algorithms. Part I: Linear programming, Mathematical Programming 44:27–41, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01587075
  • S. J. Wright, Primal-Dual Interior-Point Methods, SIAM, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971453
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CombinatoricsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces II: The Two-Point Space — an N-Free Exponential Bound for the One-Sided Hamming Distance under a Second MeasureTextbook

Motivation

The concentration of measure phenomenon says that in a product probability space a set of probability not too small is "large" in the sense that most points lie within a small distance of it. M. Talagrand's 1995 memoir Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces develops this phenomenon through exponential moment bounds for distances to sets. Its Section 2.1 treats the Hamming distance on an arbitrary product space and recovers the bounds obtainable by martingale methods (McDiarmid, On the method of bounded differences, 1989).

Section 2.3, the subject of this mission, specialises to the two-point space {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N with biased coordinates. This is the setting of the binomial law, of random subsets of a finite set, and of monotone properties of random graphs. Two things happen there that do not happen in general. First, the bias ppp of the coordinates enters the bound through the variance p(1−p)p(1-p)p(1−p), which gives sharper tails when ppp is close to 000 or 111. Second, when one counts only the coordinates where xxx has a 111 and the point of AAA has a 000, and measures AAA under a second, more heavily biased product measure, the exponential moment bound becomes independent of the dimension NNN. The paper calls this the first of its results that "apparently cannot be obtained via martingales". Bounds of this one-sided kind are the natural tool for upper tails of increasing functions on the biased cube, the regime of the binomial law near Np1Np_1Np1​ when samples are drawn at rate p<p1p<p_1p<p1​.

Setting

Let Ω={0,1}\Omega=\{0,1\}Ω={0,1}. For p∈[0,1]p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1] let μ\muμ be the probability on Ω\OmegaΩ with μ({1})=p\mu(\{1\})=pμ({1})=p, μ({0})=1−p\mu(\{0\})=1-pμ({0})=1−p, and let P=μNP=\mu^NP=μN be the product probability on ΩN\Omega^NΩN, whose points are written x=(x1,…,xN)x=(x_1,\dots,x_N)x=(x1​,…,xN​). For a set A⊆ΩNA\subseteq\Omega^NA⊆ΩN and a point x∈ΩNx\in\Omega^Nx∈ΩN, the Hamming distance from xxx to AAA is

f(A,x)=min⁡{card⁡{i≤N: xi≠yi}: y∈A},f(A,x)=\min\big\{\operatorname{card}\{i\le N:\ x_i\neq y_i\}:\ y\in A\big\},f(A,x)=min{card{i≤N: xi​=yi​}: y∈A},

the least number of coordinates of xxx that must be changed to land in AAA. The one-sided distance counts only changes from 111 to 000:

f+(A,x)=min⁡{card⁡{i≤N: xi=1, yi=0}: y∈A}.f^{+}(A,x)=\min\big\{\operatorname{card}\{i\le N:\ x_i=1,\ y_i=0\}:\ y\in A\big\}.f+(A,x)=min{card{i≤N: xi​=1, yi​=0}: y∈A}.

Both are +∞+\infty+∞ when AAA is empty. A second probability μ1\mu_1μ1​ on Ω\OmegaΩ has p1=μ1({1})p_1=\mu_1(\{1\})p1​=μ1​({1}), and P1=μ1NP_1=\mu_1^NP1​=μ1N​. For α>0\alpha>0α>0 and t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 the paper uses two constants,

b(α,t,p)=((1−p)et+p)(p+(1−p)e−t/α)α(p≥12),b(α,t,p)=b(α,t,1−p)(p≤12),b(\alpha,t,p)=((1-p)e^{t}+p)(p+(1-p)e^{-t/\alpha})^{\alpha}\quad(p\ge \tfrac12),\qquad b(\alpha,t,p)=b(\alpha,t,1-p)\quad(p\le\tfrac12),b(α,t,p)=((1−p)et+p)(p+(1−p)e−t/α)α(p≥21​),b(α,t,p)=b(α,t,1−p)(p≤21​), a(α,t)=max⁡(1, (1−p+pet)(p1e−t/α+1−p1)α).a(\alpha,t)=\max\Big(1,\ (1-p+pe^{t})(p_1e^{-t/\alpha}+1-p_1)^{\alpha}\Big).a(α,t)=max(1, (1−p+pet)(p1​e−t/α+1−p1​)α).

In the Lean development these are hammingDistToSet, oneSidedDistToSet, bConst, aConst, the measure productMeasure N p, and the integrand expMul t z =etz=e^{tz}=etz.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.3.4

If p1>pp_1>pp1​>p, then for every NNN, every A⊆ΩNA\subseteq\Omega^NA⊆ΩN, every α>0\alpha>0α>0 and every t≥0t\ge 0t≥0,

∫etf+(A,x) dP(x)≤a(α,t)NP1(A)α.\int e^{t f^{+}(A,x)}\,dP(x)\le\frac{a(\alpha,t)^N}{P_1(A)^{\alpha}}.∫etf+(A,x)dP(x)≤P1​(A)αa(α,t)N​.

For small ttt one has a(α,t)=1a(\alpha,t)=1a(α,t)=1. When 0<p<p1<10<p<p_1<10<p<p1​<1 and α=1\alpha=1α=1, the paper's explicit threshold is et≤p1(1−p)/(p(1−p1))e^{t}\le p_1(1-p)/(p(1-p_1))et≤p1​(1−p)/(p(1−p1​)). At equality, the bound becomes ∫(p1(1−p)/(p(1−p1)))f+(A,x)dP≤1/P1(A)\int (p_1(1-p)/(p(1-p_1)))^{f^{+}(A,x)}dP\le 1/P_1(A)∫(p1​(1−p)/(p(1−p1​)))f+(A,x)dP≤1/P1​(A), with no dependence on NNN. The main theorem also includes the endpoint cases p=0p=0p=0 and p1=1p_1=1p1​=1 without using this ratio.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.3.1. For t≥0t\ge0t≥0, α≥1\alpha\ge1α≥1: ∫etf(A,x) dP(x)≤b(α,t,p)NP(A)α\displaystyle\int e^{tf(A,x)}\,dP(x)\le \frac{b(\alpha,t,p)^N}{P(A)^\alpha}∫etf(A,x)dP(x)≤P(A)αb(α,t,p)N​.
  2. Corollary 2.3.2, Eq. (2.3.4). There is a universal KKK such that for α≥1\alpha\ge1α≥1, 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1:
∫etf(A,x) dP(x)≤1P(A)αexp⁡N[p(1−p)(1+1α)t22+Kt3].\int e^{tf(A,x)}\,dP(x)\le\frac{1}{P(A)^\alpha}\exp N\Big[p(1-p)\Big(1+\frac1\alpha\Big)\frac{t^2}{2}+Kt^3\Big].∫etf(A,x)dP(x)≤P(A)α1​expN[p(1−p)(1+α1​)2t2​+Kt3].
  1. Corollary 2.3.2, Eq. (2.3.5). There is a universal KKK such that for (4p(1−p)Nlog⁡1P(A))1/2≤k≤p(1−p)N(4p(1-p)N\log\frac1{P(A)})^{1/2}\le k\le p(1-p)N(4p(1−p)NlogP(A)1​)1/2≤k≤p(1−p)N:
P({f(A,x)≥k})≤exp⁡(−12p(1−p)N(k−2p(1−p)Nlog⁡1P(A))2+Kk3(p(1−p))3N2).P(\{f(A,x)\ge k\})\le\exp\Big(-\frac{1}{2p(1-p)N}\Big(k-\sqrt{2p(1-p)N\log\tfrac{1}{P(A)}}\Big)^2+\frac{Kk^3}{(p(1-p))^3N^2}\Big).P({f(A,x)≥k})≤exp(−2p(1−p)N1​(k−2p(1−p)NlogP(A)1​​)2+(p(1−p))3N2Kk3​).
  1. Lemma 2.3.5. If a≤b≤1a\le b\le 1a≤b≤1, then
1−pbα+pmin⁡(1aα,etbα)≤a(α,t)(ap1+b(1−p1))α.\frac{1-p}{b^{\alpha}}+p\min\Big(\frac{1}{a^{\alpha}},\frac{e^{t}}{b^{\alpha}}\Big)\le\frac{a(\alpha,t)}{(ap_1+b(1-p_1))^{\alpha}}.bα1−p​+pmin(aα1​,bαet​)≤(ap1​+b(1−p1​))αa(α,t)​.

Milestones 1–3 concern the two-sided Hamming distance; milestone 4 is the one-coordinate inequality behind the goal.

Significance

The results. Proposition 2.3.1 and Corollary 2.3.2 give, for every set AAA in the biased cube, a tail bound for the Hamming distance whose Gaussian part has the variance p(1−p)Np(1-p)Np(1−p)N of the binomial law, not the worst case N/4N/4N/4. The paper notes that this matches the quality of the optimal isoperimetric inequalities that are known only for hereditary (monotone) sets. Theorem 2.3.4 is a statement with no dimension in it: it controls how many 111s of a μN\mu^NμN-sample must be switched off to reach a set AAA that is not small under the more biased μ1N\mu_1^Nμ1N​.

Formalizing it. These results are proved in the paper; the local Prove2Me index contains no machine-checked proof of these statements. Mathlib has the Bernoulli measure, finite products of measures and lower Lebesgue integrals, but no exponential moment bound for these distances to sets. A complete development would add reusable facts about biased Boolean products, their distance functions and exponential moments, and the uniform cubic error term in Corollary 2.3.2.

Difficulty

The obvious route to a Hamming-distance tail bound is a martingale (bounded differences) argument. It yields e−2k2/Ne^{-2k^2/N}e−2k2/N-type bounds that do not see the bias ppp, and its variance proxy grows with NNN, so it gives no bound independent of NNN; the paper states that Theorem 2.3.4 apparently cannot be obtained this way. Theorem 2.3.4 measures AAA under P1P_1P1​ while the integral is under PPP, so a one-coordinate estimate must account for two different probabilities and keep the factor a(α,t)a(\alpha,t)a(α,t) exactly equal to 111 for small ttt. Lemma 2.3.5 must handle a=0a=0a=0 as well as interior values. Corollary 2.3.2 requires a cubic error bound uniform in p∈[0,1]p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1] and α≥1\alpha\ge1α≥1.

Formalization scope

  • Ω\OmegaΩ is Bool with 111 = true; PPP reuses the published TalagrandCore.bernPi Bernoulli product measure with p : unitInterval converted to a nonnegative real, over Fin N (0-based coordinates). Every subset of {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N is measurable, so the paper's convention of ignoring measurability costs nothing here.
  • Distances take values in ℝ≥0∞, with f(∅,x)=+∞f(\emptyset,x)=+\inftyf(∅,x)=+∞; integrals are lower Lebesgue integrals ∫⁻ in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; P(A)−αP(A)^{-\alpha}P(A)−α is computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so P(A)=0P(A)=0P(A)=0 gives +∞+\infty+∞.
  • Theorem 2.3.4 and Lemma 2.3.5 are stated for α>0\alpha>0α>0, the range under which Section 2.2 introduces the exponent α\alphaα (the theorem's page does not restate it). Proposition 2.3.1 and Corollary 2.3.2 keep the page's α≥1\alpha\ge 1α≥1. The standing hypothesis p1>pp_1>pp1​>p appears as a binder.
  • The universal constants of Corollary 2.3.2 are quantified before ppp, NNN, AAA, α\alphaα, ttt, kkk. In Eq. (2.3.5), 0<p<10<p<10<p<1, N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and P(A)>0P(A)>0P(A)>0 are assumed, which is where the displayed formula is defined.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the integrals are not Bochner integrals (which vanish on non-integrable functions), the empty set and P1(A)=0P_1(A)=0P1​(A)=0 are handled through +∞+\infty+∞, not junk zeros, and the two different distances of the section carry different names.

The mission also imports the published TalagrandCore.bernPi definition for the Boolean product law. Reusable pieces include evaluation of ∫\int∫ over {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} under a Bernoulli measure and facts about product measures over Fin N. Contributions to any of the four milestones or the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publ. Math. IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02699376
  • C. McDiarmid, On the method of bounded differences, Surveys in Combinatorics, LMS Lecture Note Series 141 (1989), 148–188. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107359949.008
  • M. Ledoux, The Concentration of Measure Phenomenon, AMS Mathematical Surveys and Monographs 89 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1090/surv/089
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs: A Variable-Rate Queue Has an Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policy Whenever λ < max aβResearch Paper

Motivation

Controlled queues are the standard testing ground for Markov decision processes with infinitely many states: the state is a queue length, which is unbounded, and the holding cost grows with it. The classical theory of the average cost criterion (Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, 1970) produces an optimal stationary policy only when the relative discounted values are uniformly bounded, a condition that fails for almost every queue with unbounded holding costs. Linn I. Sennott's paper Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs (Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989, doi:10.1287/opre.37.4.626) replaced that boundedness by one-sided conditions that are checked in practice by a monotonicity argument and a single test function. Her conditions became the standard tool for queueing control and are the basis of Chapter 7 of her book Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999).

Timeline:

  • 1962–1970. Derman and Ross obtain average cost optimal stationary policies from the vanishing discount approach when the relative values hαh_\alphahα​ are bounded.
  • 1986. Sennott treats the queue with variable service rates under bounded costs and gives a first discrete-time Tauberian argument (Operations Research 34, 1986a; 1986b).
  • 1989. This paper: Assumptions 1–3, the Theorem, the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5, and applications to a packet system and to the queue with variable service rates (Proposition 8).

Setting

A Markov decision chain has states i=0,1,2,…i=0,1,2,\dotsi=0,1,2,…; in state iii a finite nonempty set AiA_iAi​ of actions; a cost 0≤C(i,a)<∞0\le C(i,a)<\infty0≤C(i,a)<∞; and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may depend on the whole history and may randomize; a stationary policy fff chooses f(i)∈Aif(i)\in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii. For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, Vθ,α(i)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vθ,α​(i) is the expected total α\alphaα-discounted cost from iii and Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i)=\inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), possibly infinite. The average cost of θ\thetaθ is

gθ(i)=lim sup⁡N→∞1N Eθ[∑t=0N−1C(Xt,at) ∣ X0=i].g_\theta(i)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}\frac1N\,E_\theta\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{N-1}C(X_t,a_t)\,\Big|\,X_0=i\Big].gθ​(i)=N→∞limsup​N1​Eθ​[t=0∑N−1​C(Xt​,at​)​X0​=i].

A stationary policy fff is average cost optimal if there is a finite constant ggg with g=gf(i)≤gθ(i)g=g_f(i)\le g_\theta(i)g=gf​(i)≤gθ​(i) for every policy θ\thetaθ and every state iii.

The queue with variable service rates (Example 2). Time is slotted; pip_ipi​ is the probability of iii arrivals in a slot, independently across slots. The state is the number of customers at the beginning of a slot. When the queue is nonempty the server chooses one of finitely many decision variables aaa and serves at rate aβ∈(0,1)a\beta\in(0,1)aβ∈(0,1), so that the customer in service leaves during the slot with probability aβa\betaaβ; there is no decision in state 000. From state i≥1i\ge1i≥1 the next state is i−1+ki-1+ki−1+k with probability aβpk+(1−aβ)pk−1a\beta p_k+(1-a\beta)p_{k-1}aβpk​+(1−aβ)pk−1​ (p−1=0p_{-1}=0p−1​=0), and from 000 it is jjj with probability pjp_jpj​. The cost structure: B(a)>0B(a)>0B(a)>0; QQQ a polynomial of degree n≥0n\ge0n≥0, nonnegative and increasing on i≥0i\ge0i≥0; C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0) and C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a) for i≥1i\ge1i≥1. The arrival moments are λ(k)=∑iikpi\lambda^{(k)}=\sum_i i^kp_iλ(k)=∑i​ikpi​ and λ=λ(1)\lambda=\lambda^{(1)}λ=λ(1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8

If λ(n+1)<∞\lambda^{(n+1)}<\inftyλ(n+1)<∞, then

λ<max⁡a(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ \text{there is an average cost optimal stationary policy},λ<amax​(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,

and

λ<min⁡a(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i≥0,\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ g+h(i)=\min_a\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\},\quad i\ge0,λ<amin​(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=amin​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i≥0,

with ggg the optimal average cost, g=lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)g=\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)g=limα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i), and hhh bounded below.

Milestones

  1. Propositions 1–3 (p. 627): VαV_\alphaVα​ solves the discount optimality equation, is its minimal nonnegative solution, and is the limit of value iteration (already proved on the platform, referenced).
  2. The Lemma (p. 628): discount optimal stationary policies along αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 have a stationary limit point.
  3. Lemmas A1 and A2 (p. 632): the comparison between solutions of the optimality inequality and average costs, and lim sup⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)≤gθ(i)\limsup_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)\le g_\theta(i)limsupα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i)≤gθ​(i).
  4. The Theorem (p. 628): under Assumptions 1–3, any limit point fff from the Lemma is average cost optimal, with the optimality inequalities (5); under Assumption 3*, the optimality equation (6).
  5. Propositions 4, 5 and the Corollary (pp. 629–630): the Markov chain criteria that yield Assumptions 1, 3 and 3* from one well-behaved stationary policy.
  6. Two steps of the proof of Proposition 8 (p. 631): Vα(i)V_\alpha(i)Vα​(i) is increasing in iii (hence Assumption 2), and the drift of r(i)=Ain+1r(i)=Ai^{n+1}r(i)=Ain+1 is a polynomial of degree at most nnn with leading coefficient A(n+1)(λ−aβ)A(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)A(n+1)(λ−aβ), display (14).

Significance

Proposition 8 states that a queue in which at least one service rate exceeds the mean arrival rate has an average cost optimal stationary policy for holding costs of any polynomial growth, as long as the matching moment of the arrival distribution is finite. Bounded-cost results do not cover this case, which is the one used in practice. The general Theorem behind it is the standard vanishing discount theorem for countable-state models with unbounded costs; the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5 and the Corollary reduces its hypotheses to a drift inequality for one policy.

All results of the paper are proved on paper. None is formalized: the platform has Sennott's discounted theory (Propositions 1–3, proved) and, as open statements, the book version of the Theorem (SennottDP.SEN.thm_7_2_3_sen_acoi), its existence part in a compact-action model (ArapostathisAC.SennottACOI.theorem_5_9), and the first half of Lemma A1 (SennottDP.SEN.lemma_7_2_1_acoi_bound). This mission states the paper's own version, with all conclusions of the Theorem, and its application to a concrete queue, which no platform item states.

Difficulty

The obvious route takes a limit of hα=Vα−Vα(0)h_\alpha=V_\alpha-V_\alpha(0)hα​=Vα​−Vα​(0) along a sequence αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 and passes to the limit in the discount optimality equation. With unbounded costs and unbounded hαh_\alphahα​ the sum ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) is an infinite series of terms that need not converge uniformly, so the limit of the sums is not the sum of the limits. Only an inequality survives (Fatou's lemma, which needs the lower bound of Assumption 2), and the equation needs the integrable upper bound of Assumption 3*. For the queue, the hypotheses are not visible from the model: they come from a monotonicity property of VαV_\alphaVα​ and a Lyapunov drift computation whose leading term, A(n+1)(λ−aβ)inA(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)i^nA(n+1)(λ−aβ)in, has to dominate a cost polynomial of the same degree.

Formalization scope

The model is the published Markov decision chain of Sennott (1999), SennottDP.Discounted.MDC ℕ Act, with its policies, discounted costs and value functions, and the published average cost SennottDP.SEN.avgCost; Markov chains, steady state probabilities and first passage costs are the published SennottDP.MarkovCost objects. Conventions:

  • costs, discounted values and average costs lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; VαV_\alphaVα​ may be infinite unless Assumption 1 is assumed;
  • hαh_\alphahα​ is a real number, used only together with Assumption 1;
  • the constants NNN and MiM_iMi​ of Assumptions 2–3 are explicit and chosen before iii and α\alphaα; Assumption 3* uses the same MMM;
  • "average cost optimal" always carries a finite constant g≥0g\ge0g≥0 and compares with all policies, not only stationary ones;
  • sums ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) against a real function are extended reals (positive part minus negative part);
  • "ergodic" means positive recurrent (no aperiodicity);
  • in the queue, every decision is formally available in state 000 with identical cost Q(0)Q(0)Q(0) and identical transitions, which represents "no decision in state 0"; λ<max⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)λ<maxa​(aβ) is "for some aaa" and λ<min⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)λ<mina​(aβ) "for every aaa".

The second half of the goal is not "there exist ggg and hhh satisfying (6)": a pair solving (6) alone carries no optimality content, so the goal ties ggg to the optimal average cost and lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alphalimα↑1​(1−α)Vα​ and requires hhh bounded below. The Theorem's milestones are stated for every limit point given by the Lemma, not for some stationary policy. The hypotheses of the goal are satisfiable (two-point arrivals p0=3/4p_0=3/4p0​=3/4, p1=1/4p_1=1/4p1​=1/4, one rate aβ=1/2a\beta=1/2aβ=1/2, Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1, B=1B=1B=1), so the goal is not vacuous.

A complete development needs a discrete Tauberian inequality (already proved on the platform), Fatou's lemma for series, a compactness argument on ∏iAi\prod_iA_i∏i​Ai​, first passage identities and a Foster–Lyapunov criterion for positive recurrence. The Markov chain criteria (Proposition 4, the Corollary) and the Theorem are reusable for every countable-state queueing control model. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs, Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • S. M. Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, Holden-Day, 1970.
  • A. G. Pakes, Some Conditions for Ergodicity and Recurrence of Markov Chains, Operations Research 17(6):1058–1061, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.17.6.1058
  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2):282–344, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
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Convex OptimizationFunctional AnalysisNumerical Analysis+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Régularisation d'inéquations variationnelles par approximations successives II: The Proximal Regularization of a Convex Minimization Problem Is a Minimizing SequenceResearch Paper

Motivation

The proximal point algorithm replaces a hard optimization or equilibrium problem by a sequence of better-conditioned ones: from the current point xnx^nxn it solves the original problem with a quadratic penalty ∥x−xn∥2\|x-x^n\|^2∥x−xn∥2 added, and takes the solution as xn+1x^{n+1}xn+1. The method is a building block of modern convex optimization. Augmented Lagrangian methods, Douglas–Rachford and ADMM splitting, and many bundle methods are proximal point iterations applied to suitable problems (Rockafellar 1976; Eckstein–Bertsekas 1992).

The algorithm was introduced by B. Martinet in a five-page note in the Revue française d'informatique et de recherche opérationnelle in 1970 (Martinet 1970). The note treats three cases: monotone variational inequalities on a bounded convex set (§II), convex–concave min–max problems (§III), and convex minimization (§IV). This mission formalizes §IV.

Timeline.

  • 1970, Martinet: the regularization (13) for convex minimization over a closed convex set in a Hilbert space; Théorème 3 (weak cluster points are minimizers, the sequence is minimizing), stated without proof.
  • 1976, Rockafellar (SIAM J. Control Optim. 14): the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators, with inexact steps and weak convergence of the whole sequence when a zero exists.
  • 1991, Güler (SIAM J. Control Optim. 29): the rate f(xn)−inf⁡f=O(1/n)f(x^n)-\inf f = O(1/n)f(xn)−inff=O(1/n) for convex minimization, and an example in which the iterates converge weakly but not strongly.

Setting

Let HHH be a real Hilbert space with inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. Let C⊆HC\subseteq HC⊆H be a nonempty, closed, convex set, and let f:H→Rf:H\to\mathbb Rf:H→R be a convex, lower semicontinuous function such that, for every a∈Ra\in\mathbb Ra∈R, the sublevel set {x∈C∣f(x)≤a}\{x\in C \mid f(x)\le a\}{x∈C∣f(x)≤a} is bounded. These are the standing hypotheses of §4.1 (Lean: Standing f C). The problem is

(12)min⁡ { f(x)∣x∈C },(12)\qquad \min\,\{\,f(x)\mid x\in C\,\},(12)min{f(x)∣x∈C},

and its solution set (solSet f C) is the set of xˉ∈C\bar x\in Cxˉ∈C with f(xˉ)≤f(x)f(\bar x)\le f(x)f(xˉ)≤f(x) for all x∈Cx\in Cx∈C.

The regularization algorithm (13) starts from x0∈Cx^0\in Cx0∈C and, given xnx^nxn, takes

(13)xn+1∈C  the minimizer of  f(x)+∥x−xn∥2  over x∈C.(13)\qquad x^{n+1}\in C\ \text{ the minimizer of } \ f(x)+\|x-x^n\|^2\ \text{ over } x\in C .(13)xn+1∈C  the minimizer of  f(x)+∥x−xn∥2  over x∈C.

Lean encodes one step as IsProxStep f C xn y (y∈Cy\in Cy∈C and f(y)+∥y−xn∥2≤f(x)+∥x−xn∥2f(y)+\|y-x^n\|^2\le f(x)+\|x-x^n\|^2f(y)+∥y−xn∥2≤f(x)+∥x−xn∥2 for all x∈Cx\in Cx∈C) and a run as IsProxSeq f C x.

A point x~\tilde xx~ is a weak cluster point of (xn)(x^n)(xn) (IsWeakClusterPt) if every neighbourhood of x~\tilde xx~ in the weak topology of HHH contains xnx^nxn for infinitely many nnn. A sequence is minimizing if f(xn)→inf⁡x∈Cf(x)f(x^n)\to\inf_{x\in C} f(x)f(xn)→infx∈C​f(x).

Formalization targets

Existence for (12) and well-posedness of (13)

∃ xˉ∈C  ∀x∈C: f(xˉ)≤f(x),∀xn∈C  ∃! y∈C: y minimizes f(x)+∥x−xn∥2 over C.\exists\,\bar x\in C\ \ \forall x\in C:\ f(\bar x)\le f(x), \qquad \forall x^n\in C\ \ \exists!\,y\in C:\ y \text{ minimizes } f(x)+\|x-x^n\|^2 \text{ over } C .∃xˉ∈C  ∀x∈C: f(xˉ)≤f(x),∀xn∈C  ∃!y∈C: y minimizes f(x)+∥x−xn∥2 over C.

These are the paper's claims in §4.1 ("Ces hypothèses assurent l'existence d'une solution pour (12)") and §4.2 ("solution unique").

Goal: Théorème 3

For every sequence generated by (13),

x~ a weak cluster point of (xn) ⟹ x~∈sol⁡(12),lim⁡n→∞f(xn)=inf⁡x∈Cf(x)∈R.\tilde x \text{ a weak cluster point of } (x^n)\ \Longrightarrow\ \tilde x\in \operatorname{sol}(12), \qquad \lim_{n\to\infty} f(x^n)=\inf_{x\in C} f(x)\in\mathbb R .x~ a weak cluster point of (xn) ⟹ x~∈sol(12),n→∞lim​f(xn)=x∈Cinf​f(x)∈R.

The goal asserts no rate and no constant. It is the statement the paper makes, with both conclusions in one theorem.

Stronger: Remarque 1

If in addition fff is uniformly convex, i.e. f(ax+by)≤af(x)+bf(y)−ab φ(∥x−y∥)f(ax+by)\le af(x)+bf(y)-ab\,\varphi(\|x-y\|)f(ax+by)≤af(x)+bf(y)−abφ(∥x−y∥) for a,b≥0a,b\ge0a,b≥0, a+b=1a+b=1a+b=1, with φ(t)>0\varphi(t)>0φ(t)>0 for t>0t>0t>0, then (12) has a unique solution xˉ\bar xxˉ and ∥xn−xˉ∥→0\|x^n-\bar x\|\to0∥xn−xˉ∥→0.

Significance

The result. Théorème 3 says that the proximal iterates make progress on the objective, not only on the distance to the solution set. A user of the method can stop on a value criterion. The convergence also needs no step-size tuning, no smoothness of fff, and no bound on fff beyond the boundedness of the sublevel sets. The well-posedness of (13) is what makes the method an algorithm. Each step is a strongly convex subproblem with a unique solution, and later inexact and splitting variants rely on that.

Formalizing it. The note gives no proof of Théorème 3 ("On peut faire une démonstration directe de ce théorème") and none of Remarque 1. The mission asks for a complete machine-checked proof of the convex minimization case of the original proximal point paper. To our knowledge, none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has convexity, lower semicontinuity, the weak topology of a normed space and uniform convexity of functions, but no proximal point algorithm.

Difficulty

Each iterate xn+1x^{n+1}xn+1 is defined only implicitly, as the minimizer of a problem that changes with nnn. Monotonicity of f(xn)f(x^n)f(xn) follows at once from comparing xn+1x^{n+1}xn+1 with xnx^nxn. Monotonicity alone gives convergence of f(xn)f(x^n)f(xn) to some limit, but not to inf⁡Cf\inf_C finfC​f. Closing that gap needs information about the minimizers of (12) and their distance to the iterates.

The cluster-point statement is about the weak topology. A norm-continuity argument does not apply: fff is only lower semicontinuous in norm, and passing to weak limits requires the weak lower semicontinuity of convex lower semicontinuous functions. The boundedness that makes weak cluster points exist comes from the sublevel-set hypothesis, not from CCC, which may be unbounded.

For Remarque 1, the obvious argument controls φ(∥xn−xˉ∥)\varphi(\|x^n-\bar x\|)φ(∥xn−xˉ∥), and the hypothesis on φ\varphiφ is only positivity. Passing from φ(∥xn−xˉ∥)→0\varphi(\|x^n-\bar x\|)\to0φ(∥xn−xˉ∥)→0 to ∥xn−xˉ∥→0\|x^n-\bar x\|\to0∥xn−xˉ∥→0 is not immediate without a monotone modulus.

Formalization scope

All statements live in MartinetReg.ConvexMin. The conventions the formalization commits to:

  • HHH is a real complete inner product space (InnerProductSpace ℝ H, CompleteSpace H). The paper says "espace de Hilbert", and its inequalities make it real.
  • C≠∅C\neq\emptysetC=∅ is a standing hypothesis. The paper leaves it implicit, but its existence claim for (12) is false for C=∅C=\emptysetC=∅.
  • fff is real-valued, convex and lower semicontinuous on all of HHH, as printed. The constraint x∈Cx\in Cx∈C stays explicit in (12) and (13). It is not absorbed into an extended-valued indicator.
  • The penalty in (13) has weight 111, as printed, not 12\tfrac1221​.
  • The algorithm is a relation on sequences: IsProxSeq accepts any sequence with x0∈Cx^0\in Cx0∈C satisfying (13) at every step. Existence and uniqueness of the step are a separate milestone, not built into a definition by choice.
  • "Minimisante" is stated as: some real mmm is the greatest lower bound of f(C)f(C)f(C) and f(xn)→mf(x^n)\to mf(xn)→m. This avoids the junk value sInf takes on sets unbounded below. As a side effect, the theorem asserts that fff is bounded below on CCC.
  • Weak cluster points are cluster points in WeakSpace ℝ H. A norm cluster point would weaken the conclusion and is not used.
  • Remarque 1 uses Mathlib's UniformConvexOn Set.univ φ f with φ(t)>0\varphi(t)>0φ(t)>0 for t>0t>0t>0. It keeps every hypothesis of §4.1.

The goal does not assume that (12) has a solution, that fff is bounded below on CCC, or that the iterates are bounded. Each of these would remove part of the content of Théorème 3, and the first two are consequences proved as milestones.

Not formalized here: Remarque 2 (p. 158), a comment that convexity seems indispensable; and the Exemple (p. 158). The Exemple's linear system (A∗A+2I)xn+1=A∗b+2xn(A^*A+2I)x^{n+1}=A^*b+2x^n(A∗A+2I)xn+1=A∗b+2xn corresponds to f=12∥Ax−b∥2f=\tfrac12\|Ax-b\|^2f=21​∥Ax−b∥2. For the printed f=∥Ax−b∥2f=\|Ax-b\|^2f=∥Ax−b∥2, (13) gives (A∗A+I)xn+1=A∗b+xn(A^*A+I)x^{n+1}=A^*b+x^n(A∗A+I)xn+1=A∗b+xn. The variational inequality case (§II) is the companion mission I of this series.

Reusable beyond this mission: the existence of minimizers of convex lower semicontinuous functions with bounded sublevel sets on closed convex subsets of a Hilbert space, and the weak lower semicontinuity it rests on. Contributions of these general lemmas, and of strong-convexity facts for x↦f(x)+∥x−xn∥2x\mapsto f(x)+\|x-x^n\|^2x↦f(x)+∥x−xn∥2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Martinet, Brève communication. Régularisation d'inéquations variationnelles par approximations successives, Revue française d'informatique et de recherche opérationnelle, série rouge, 4(R-3), 154–158, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1051/m2an/197004R301541
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 14(5), 877–898, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1137/0314056
  • O. Güler, On the convergence of the proximal point algorithm for convex minimization, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 29(2), 403–419, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1137/0329022
  • J. Eckstein and D. P. Bertsekas, On the Douglas–Rachford splitting method and the proximal point algorithm for maximal monotone operators, Mathematical Programming 55, 293–318, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581204
  • J. L. Lions and G. Stampacchia, Variational inequalities, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 20, 493–519, 1967. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160200302
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A 2-Approximation Algorithm for Stochastic Inventory Control Models with Lost Sales: The Dual-Balancing Policy Costs at Most Twice Any Nonanticipatory Policy under Independent DemandsResearch Paper

Motivation

Inventory systems in which unmet demand is lost, not backlogged, are the norm in retail: a customer who finds an empty shelf buys elsewhere. With a positive lead time LLL between ordering and delivery, the optimal policy for such a system depends on the entire pipeline of outstanding orders, so dynamic programming is intractable beyond small LLL. Optimal policies are not of base-stock type, and for decades no policy with a provable guarantee on its expected cost was known for this model.

Levi, Janakiraman and Nagarajan (Math. Oper. Res. 33(2), 2008) gave the first such guarantee. Their dual-balancing policy balances, in every period, the expected holding cost against the expected lost-sales penalty of the units ordered now, and it costs at most twice as much as an optimal policy.

Timeline.

  • 2007. Levi, Pál, Roundy and Shmoys (Math. Oper. Res. 32(2)) introduce marginal cost accounting and the dual-balancing policy for the backlogging model, with a worst-case guarantee of 2.
  • 2008. Levi, Janakiraman and Nagarajan extend the guarantee to lost sales (this mission). In their model the truncated inventory positions of the two policies can cross back and forth inside a lead time, which the backlogging argument never meets.
  • 2009. Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong (Management Science, 2009) prove that order-up-to policies are asymptotically optimal in the lost-sales model as the penalty cost grows.
  • 2021 onward. Xin (Oper. Res., 2021; SSRN 7134538) analyses capped base-stock policies for i.i.d. lost-sales demand, culminating in a 2.33-approximation guarantee for that policy class, whose main theorem is proved on Prove2Me.

Page and display numbers in this mission refer to the authors' accepted manuscript (28 pages, pp. 1–28), not to the journal's pages 351–374.

Setting

Periods are t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T. An order Qs≥0Q_s\ge0Qs​≥0 placed in period sss arrives at the start of period s+Ls+Ls+L, where L≥1L\ge1L≥1 is an integer. Before the horizon there are x0≥0x_0\ge0x0​≥0 units on hand and pipeline orders Qj=qj≥0Q_j=q_j\ge0Qj​=qj​≥0 for 1−L≤j≤01-L\le j\le01−L≤j≤0. Demands D1,…,DT≥0D_1,\dots,D_T\ge0D1​,…,DT​≥0 have finite means. The information Fs\mathcal F_sFs​ available at the start of period sss contains D1,…,Ds−1D_1,\dots,D_{s-1}D1​,…,Ds−1​ and possibly more. A feasible policy chooses QsQ_sQs​ as an Fs\mathcal F_sFs​-measurable quantity.

The on-hand inventory ItI_tIt​ at the start of period ttt, after the arrival, satisfies I1=x0+Q1−LI_1=x_0+Q_{1-L}I1​=x0​+Q1−L​ and

It+1=(It−Dt)++Qt+1−L.I_{t+1}=(I_t-D_t)^+ + Q_{t+1-L}.It+1​=(It​−Dt​)++Qt+1−L​.

Demand (Dt−It)+(D_t-I_t)^+(Dt​−It​)+ is lost. Costs are a holding rate ht≥0h_t\ge0ht​≥0, a lost-sales penalty pt≥0p_t\ge0pt​≥0 and an ordering cost ct≥0c_t\ge0ct​≥0 per unit, where ptp_tpt​ and ctc_tct​ are non-increasing in ttt.

Marginal cost accounting. Under first-ordered-first-consumed bookkeeping, HsH_sHs​ is the ordering cost csQsc_sQ_scs​Qs​ plus the holding cost that the QsQ_sQs​ units incur until the end of the horizon, and Πs=ps+L(Ds+L−Is+L)+\Pi_s=p_{s+L}(D_{s+L}-I_{s+L})^+Πs​=ps+L​(Ds+L​−Is+L​)+ is the lost-sales penalty in the period in which they arrive. The cost of a policy PPP is

C(P)=∑s=1T−L(HsP+ΠsP).\mathcal C(P)=\sum_{s=1}^{T-L}\bigl(H^P_s+\Pi^P_s\bigr).C(P)=s=1∑T−L​(HsP​+ΠsP​).

It omits only costs that are the same for every policy.

The truncated inventory position of period sss with respect to t≤st\le st≤s is Yst=Is+∑j=s+1−LtQjY_{st}=I_s+\sum_{j=s+1-L}^{t}Q_jYst​=Is​+∑j=s+1−Lt​Qj​. For two policies BBB and PPP, the set TH\mathcal T_HTH​ holds the periods t≤T−Lt\le T-Lt≤T−L with YstB<YstPY^B_{st}<Y^P_{st}YstB​<YstP​ for every s∈[t,t+L]s\in[t,t+L]s∈[t,t+L], and TΠ\mathcal T_\PiTΠ​ holds the remaining periods t≤T−Lt\le T-Lt≤T−L.

A dual-balancing policy BBB orders, in each period t≤T−Lt\le T-Lt≤T−L, the amount that equalises the two conditional expectations

E[HtB∣Ft]=E[ΠtB∣Ft]=:Zt.E[H^B_t\mid\mathcal F_t]=E[\Pi^B_t\mid\mathcal F_t]=:Z_t.E[HtB​∣Ft​]=E[ΠtB​∣Ft​]=:Zt​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

If demands are independent, then for every feasible policy PPP

E[C(B)]≤2 E[C(P)].E[\mathcal C(B)]\le 2\,E[\mathcal C(P)].E[C(B)]≤2E[C(P)].

Comparing with every feasible PPP, rather than with an optimal policy, gives the guarantee without assuming that an optimum is attained.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. (11) For t≤s≤t+Lt\le s\le t+Lt≤s≤t+L, It+L=Yst−D[s,t+L)+∑r=st+L−1(Dr−Ir)+I_{t+L}=Y_{st}-D_{[s,t+L)}+\sum_{r=s}^{t+L-1}(D_r-I_r)^+It+L​=Yst​−D[s,t+L)​+∑r=st+L−1​(Dr​−Ir​)+.
  2. Lemma 3.2. On every sample path, ∑t∈THHtB≤∑tHtP\sum_{t\in\mathcal T_H}H^B_t\le\sum_{t}H^P_t∑t∈TH​​HtB​≤∑t​HtP​.
  3. Lemma 3.3. On every sample path, ∑t∈TΠΠtB≤∑tΠtP\sum_{t\in\mathcal T_\Pi}\Pi^B_t\le\sum_{t}\Pi^P_t∑t∈TΠ​​ΠtB​≤∑t​ΠtP​.
  4. (14) E[C(P)]≥E[∑t(1t∈THHtB+1t∈TΠΠtB)]E[\mathcal C(P)]\ge E\bigl[\sum_t(\mathbb 1_{t\in\mathcal T_H}H^B_t+\mathbb 1_{t\in\mathcal T_\Pi}\Pi^B_t)\bigr]E[C(P)]≥E[∑t​(1t∈TH​​HtB​+1t∈TΠ​​ΠtB​)].
  5. Lemma 3.1. E[C(B)]=2∑t=1T−LE[Zt]E[\mathcal C(B)]=2\sum_{t=1}^{T-L}E[Z_t]E[C(B)]=2∑t=1T−L​E[Zt​].
  6. Lemma 3.4. This lemma characterises the crossing events Ast=[YstB<YstP]∩[Ys+1,tB≥Ys+1,tP]A_{st}=[Y^B_{st}<Y^P_{st}]\cap[Y^B_{s+1,t}\ge Y^P_{s+1,t}]Ast​=[YstB​<YstP​]∩[Ys+1,tB​≥Ys+1,tP​].
  7. Lemmas 3.5 and 3.6. Under independence, conditioning on t∈THt\in\mathcal T_Ht∈TH​ (respectively t∈TΠt\in\mathcal T_\Pit∈TΠ​) does not lower the conditional expected holding (respectively lost-sales) cost of BBB below ZtZ_tZt​.

Significance

The result. The theorem gives a constant-factor guarantee for a lost-sales system with lead times, for arbitrary independent and non-identical demand distributions. The policy is computed online, one period at a time, from one-dimensional conditional expectations, which an optimal policy cannot be. The guarantee holds with time-dependent holding costs and with non-increasing ordering and penalty costs. Section 5 of the paper extends it to correlated demand structures, which are out of this mission's scope.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper and, to our knowledge, has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces the lost-sales dynamics, the truncated inventory position, marginal cost accounting and the sample-path amortization lemmas as reusable Lean objects. It also produces a formal treatment of the conditional-expectation step under independence, which the backlogging analysis does not need. The sibling mission on the backlogging model, LeviBalancing.DualBalancing, provides the shared instance and policy definitions that are reused here.

Difficulty

In the backlogging model, t∈THt\in\mathcal T_Ht∈TH​ is decided by information available at time ttt, so the cost comparison can be made period by period after conditioning on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. With lost sales this fails: the truncated positions of BBB and of the benchmark can cross from below to above and back inside the window [t,t+L][t,t+L][t,t+L]. Whether t∈THt\in\mathcal T_Ht∈TH​ is therefore not known at time ttt, and conditioning on that event moves the conditional expectations of HtBH^B_tHtB​ and ΠtB\Pi^B_tΠtB​ away from ZtZ_tZt​. A newcomer's first idea, to reuse the backlogging argument with Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable indicators, does not apply. The lost-sales penalty also cannot be charged period by period: Lemma 3.3 is a global amortization over intervals. The non-increasing penalties are what make that amortization possible when ptp_tpt​ varies.

Formalization scope

  • Periods are integers. The pipeline QjQ_jQj​, j≤0j\le0j≤0, is shared by every policy through the published order. Instance, cumDemand, order, DemandProcess and IsFeasiblePolicy are reused from LeviBalancing.DualBalancing. The new layer is one definition file, LostSalesBalancing.DualBalancing.Model.
  • Orders and demands are real (fractional orders, as in §3.1). The randomized integral-order variant is out of scope.
  • Cost generality is that of Theorem 3.1. Rates are only required to be ≥0\ge0≥0, which strengthens the paper's stationary h,p>0h,p>0h,p>0. Accordingly (11) is stated in lost units, and Lemma 3.4(iv) is stated as positive lost demand, not positive penalty.
  • Independence. The paper assumes independent demands but lets Fs\mathcal F_sFs​ hold more than past demands. The formalization requires Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ to be independent of (Dt,…,DT)(D_t,\dots,D_T)(Dt​,…,DT​) for every ttt, which for the natural filtration is exactly mutual independence. Finite means are integrability.
  • "OPT" becomes every feasible policy in Theorem 3.1, (14) and Lemmas 3.5–3.6. In the sample-path statements, (11) and Lemmas 3.2–3.4, it becomes every nonnegative order sequence.
  • Conditional events. Pr⁡(A∣F) E[X∣F,A]\Pr(A\mid\mathcal F)\,E[X\mid\mathcal F,A]Pr(A∣F)E[X∣F,A] is written E[1AX∣F]E[\mathbb 1_AX\mid\mathcal F]E[1A​X∣F], which never divides by a zero probability.
  • Expected costs are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The dual-balancing predicate requires HtBH^B_tHtB​ and ΠtB\Pi^B_tΠtB​ to be integrable, so no conditional expectation takes Mathlib's default value 000.
  • Lemma 3.4(iii) is stated with Ds≥IsP−ΔQsD_s\ge I^P_s-\Delta Q_sDs​≥IsP​−ΔQs​. The printed strict inequality excludes a tie at which the event AstA_{st}Ast​ does occur.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the dual-balancing predicate and the independence hypothesis are jointly satisfiable with T>LT>LT>L (checked locally on an explicit instance), and no statement is meaningful only when T≤LT\le LT≤L, the case in which every cost is zero.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the sample-path lemmas, which need only finite sums and the recursion; the conditional-expectation lemmas, which need a Harris-type argument for independent coordinates; and the existence of a measurable balancing order, which this mission does not pose.

Selected references

  • R. Levi, G. Janakiraman, M. Nagarajan, A 2-Approximation Algorithm for Stochastic Inventory Control Models with Lost Sales, Mathematics of Operations Research 33(2), 351–374, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1070.0285
  • R. Levi, M. Pál, R. O. Roundy, D. B. Shmoys, Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models, Mathematics of Operations Research 32(2), 284–302, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1060.0205
  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt, P. Rusmevichientong, Asymptotic Optimality of Order-Up-To Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems, Management Science, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0945
  • L. Xin, capped base-stock policies in lost-sales inventory models, Operations Research, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.2019
  • L. Xin, Capped Base-Stock Policies: A 2.33-Approximation, SSRN working paper 7134538, 2026. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=7134538
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