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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.1308255793978239Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
9 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record
4 provers on it7 of 7 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
17 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 21Formalized record→≤ 16Open frontier
5 provers on it12 of 13 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 27Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
38 provers on it13 of 15 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Machine LearningProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Empirical Bernstein Bounds and Sample Variance Penalization: Sample Variance Penalization Has Excess Risk at Most √(32V(f*,μ)ln(3M(n)/δ)/n) + 22ln(3M(n)/δ)/(n−1) (Theorem 15)Research Paper

Motivation

Confidence bounds for the mean of a bounded random variable are the basic tool for certifying learned hypotheses, stopping sampling procedures and running bandit algorithms. Hoeffding's inequality gives an interval of width of order 1/n\sqrt{1/n}1/n​ whatever the variance. Bennett's and Bernstein's inequalities do better for low-variance variables, with width of order VZ/n+1/n\sqrt{\mathbb V Z/n} + 1/nVZ/n​+1/n, but the variance VZ\mathbb V ZVZ is unknown, so the bound cannot be evaluated from data.

Maurer and Pontil (arXiv:0907.3740v1, COLT 2009) prove empirical Bernstein bounds, in which the variance is replaced by the observable sample variance at the cost of a slightly larger 1/n1/n1/n term. They extend these bounds uniformly over infinite function classes whose complexity is controlled by a growth function. The uniform bound then suggests a learning rule, sample variance penalization (SVP): minimize the empirical risk plus a multiple of the empirical standard deviation. The paper's final result bounds the excess risk of SVP in terms of the variance of an optimal hypothesis. An analogous empirical Bernstein bound was given by Audibert, Munos and Szepesvári for multi-armed bandits, and Mnih, Szepesvári and Audibert (2008) used such bounds for stopping rules. Variance-penalized risk minimization was later studied as a convex surrogate by Namkoong and Duchi (2017).

Setting

For a vector x=(x1,…,xn)x = (x_1,\dots,x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​) of reals, the sample mean and sample variance are

Pn(x)=1n∑i=1nxi,Vn(x)=1n(n−1)∑i,j=1n(xi−xj)22.P_n(x) = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n x_i, \qquad V_n(x) = \frac{1}{n(n-1)}\sum_{i,j=1}^n\frac{(x_i-x_j)^2}{2}.Pn​(x)=n1​i=1∑n​xi​,Vn​(x)=n(n−1)1​i,j=1∑n​2(xi​−xj​)2​.

Let μ\muμ be a probability distribution on a set X\mathcal XX, and F\mathcal FF a class of hypotheses (loss functions) f:X→[0,1]f:\mathcal X\to[0,1]f:X→[0,1]. For f∈Ff\in\mathcal Ff∈F, its risk is P(f,μ)=Ef(X)P(f,\mu) = \mathbb E f(X)P(f,μ)=Ef(X) and its variance is V(f,μ)=Vf(X)V(f,\mu)=\mathbb V f(X)V(f,μ)=Vf(X), with X∼μX\sim\muX∼μ. For a sample X=(X1,…,Xn)∼μn\mathbf X = (X_1,\dots,X_n)\sim\mu^nX=(X1​,…,Xn​)∼μn, Pn(f,X)P_n(f,\mathbf X)Pn​(f,X) and Vn(f,X)V_n(f,\mathbf X)Vn​(f,X) are PnP_nPn​ and VnV_nVn​ of the vector (f(X1),…,f(Xn))(f(X_1),\dots,f(X_n))(f(X1​),…,f(Xn​)).

The complexity of F\mathcal FF enters through the growth function. For x∈Xmx\in\mathcal X^mx∈Xm let F(x)={(f(x1),…,f(xm)):f∈F}⊆Rm\mathcal F(x) = \{(f(x_1),\dots,f(x_m)) : f\in\mathcal F\}\subseteq\mathbb R^mF(x)={(f(x1​),…,f(xm​)):f∈F}⊆Rm, and let N(ϵ,A,∥⋅∥∞)\mathcal N(\epsilon, A, \|\cdot\|_\infty)N(ϵ,A,∥⋅∥∞​) be the least number of sup-norm ϵ\epsilonϵ-balls centred in AAA that cover AAA. Then

N∞(ϵ,F,m)=sup⁡x∈XmN(ϵ,F(x),∥⋅∥∞),M(n)=10 N∞(1/n,F,2n).\mathcal N_\infty(\epsilon,\mathcal F,m) = \sup_{x\in\mathcal X^m}\mathcal N(\epsilon,\mathcal F(x),\|\cdot\|_\infty), \qquad \mathcal M(n) = 10\,\mathcal N_\infty(1/n,\mathcal F,2n).N∞​(ϵ,F,m)=x∈Xmsup​N(ϵ,F(x),∥⋅∥∞​),M(n)=10N∞​(1/n,F,2n).

For λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, sample variance penalization selects

SVPλ(X)=arg⁡min⁡f∈F  Pn(f,X)+λVn(f,X)n.SVP_\lambda(\mathbf X) = \arg\min_{f\in\mathcal F}\; P_n(f,\mathbf X) + \lambda\sqrt{\frac{V_n(f,\mathbf X)}{n}}.SVPλ​(X)=argf∈Fmin​Pn​(f,X)+λnVn​(f,X)​​.

With λ=0\lambda = 0λ=0 it is empirical risk minimization.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15 (p. 6)

Fix δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1), n≥2n\ge2n≥2, λ=18ln⁡(3M(n)/δ)\lambda = \sqrt{18\ln(3\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}λ=18ln(3M(n)/δ)​ and any f∗∈Ff^*\in\mathcal Ff∗∈F. With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ in X∼μn\mathbf X\sim\mu^nX∼μn,

P(SVPλ(X),μ)−P(f∗,μ)≤32 V(f∗,μ)ln⁡(3M(n)/δ)n+22ln⁡(3M(n)/δ)n−1.P(SVP_\lambda(\mathbf X),\mu) - P(f^*,\mu) \le \sqrt{\frac{32\,V(f^*,\mu)\ln(3\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}{n}} + \frac{22\ln(3\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}{n-1}.P(SVPλ​(X),μ)−P(f∗,μ)≤n32V(f∗,μ)ln(3M(n)/δ)​​+n−122ln(3M(n)/δ)​.

The constants are the paper's. The goal is stated for an arbitrary comparator f∗f^*f∗, so it covers an optimal one when one exists.

Milestones

In the order of the proof:

  • the fourth-moment inequality (Lemma 8, Corollary 9);
  • the self-bounding concentration inequality the paper cites (Theorem 7, lower and upper tails);
  • the tails (5)–(6) of the sample variance and the standard-deviation bounds of Theorem 10;
  • the comparison W≤EVnW\le\mathbb EV_nW≤EVn​ of (7)–(9);
  • Bennett's inequality for independent variables, together with the i.i.d. Theorem 3;
  • the empirical Bernstein bounds (Theorem 4 for i.i.d. variables, Theorem 11 for independent ones);
  • the Lipschitz properties of the confidence functionals Φ,Ψ\Phi,\PsiΦ,Ψ (Lemma 12);
  • the symmetrization lemma (Lemma 13) and the swap bound (Lemma 14);
  • the uniform bound, Theorem 6:
Pr⁡{∃f∈F: P(f,μ)−Pn(f,X)>18Vn(f,X)ln⁡(M(n)/δ)n+15ln⁡(M(n)/δ)n−1}≤δ(n≥16).\Pr\Big\{\exists f\in\mathcal F:\ P(f,\mu)-P_n(f,\mathbf X) > \sqrt{\tfrac{18V_n(f,\mathbf X)\ln(\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}{n}} + \tfrac{15\ln(\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}{n-1}\Big\}\le\delta \quad (n\ge16).Pr{∃f∈F: P(f,μ)−Pn​(f,X)>n18Vn​(f,X)ln(M(n)/δ)​​+n−115ln(M(n)/δ)​}≤δ(n≥16).

Significance

Theorem 15 separates SVP from empirical risk minimization. If an optimal hypothesis has zero variance, the excess risk of SVP decays as ln⁡M(n)/n\ln\mathcal M(n)/nlnM(n)/n; for a finite class M(n)\mathcal M(n)M(n) does not depend on nnn and the rate is 1/n1/n1/n. The paper gives a two-hypothesis example where empirical risk minimization cannot beat order 1/n1/\sqrt n1/n​ (Section 4). No convexity of the class or special structure of the loss is needed beyond the growth-function bound. Theorems 4, 10 and 11 are reused well beyond this paper, in bandit algorithms, racing and stopping procedures, and certified estimation.

All results of the paper are proved there, apart from Theorem 7, which is cited from Maurer (2006), and Bennett's inequality for non-identical variables, which is cited from McDiarmid's survey Concentration (1998). This mission produces machine-checked statements of the chain, from the self-bounding inequality to the excess-risk bound. To our knowledge, none of these results has a machine-checked proof. On this platform, the namkoong-2017 series has an open re-derivation of Theorem 6 with other constants and a 1/n1/n1/n-normalized variance (VarianceRegularization.Covering.uniform_empirical_bernstein). It is related work, not the printed theorem.

Difficulty

Bennett's inequality cannot be applied directly, because its variance term is not observable. Substituting the sample variance requires a concentration inequality for VnV_nVn​ itself with the right dependence on EVn\mathbb EV_nEVn​, and VnV_nVn​ is a U-statistic, not a sum of independent terms: bounded-differences inequalities give only a variance-free rate, which is too weak.

The uniform extension does not follow from a union bound once the class is infinite. The classical double-sample argument compares a sample with a ghost sample through a linear functional; the empirical standard deviation is nonlinear, so that comparison does not go through unchanged. After symmetrization the coordinates are independent but not identically distributed, so i.i.d. concentration results do not apply to them.

Formalization scope

Conventions:

  • The source is arXiv:0907.3740v1. It has no printed page numbers, so every page cited is the PDF page.
  • Indices i=1,…,ni=1,\dots,ni=1,…,n are i : Fin n.
  • A sample is a vector Fin n → 𝒳 under the product measure Measure.pi, with i.i.d. coordinates Measure.pi (fun _ => μ) or independent ones Measure.pi μs. Variables "with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]" have laws giving zero mass outside [0,1][0,1][0,1].
  • "With probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, AAA" is written as μn{¬A}≤δ\mu^n\{\neg A\}\le\deltaμn{¬A}≤δ. For a set that is not measurable this is the outer measure.
  • PnP_nPn​ is the published VarianceRegularization.Expansion.empMean. VnV_nVn​ is a local sampleVar with the 1/(n(n−1))1/(n(n-1))1/(n(n−1)) normalization. V(f,μ)V(f,\mu)V(f,μ) is Mathlib's variance.
  • The covering number is Mathlib's Metric.coveringNumber (closed balls, centres in the set, values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}).
  • Pr⁡σ\Pr_\sigmaPrσ​ and Eσ\mathbb E_\sigmaEσ​ are uniform averages over the 2n2^n2n sign vectors.
  • SVPλSVP_\lambdaSVPλ​ is an arbitrary selector that returns, for every sample, a minimizer in F\mathcal FF of the penalized objective. Every minimizer is covered.

Added hypotheses and repaired statements, each disclosed in the item:

  • The paper says "questions of measurability will be ignored throughout". This is made precise as follows:
    • Theorems 6 and 15: F\mathcal FF is countable and its members are measurable.
    • Lemma 13: the function is measurable.
    • Theorem 7: ZZZ is measurable, integrable and nonnegative, and its coordinate-wise infima are measurable.
  • Theorems 6 and 15 assume N∞(1/n,F,2n)<∞\mathcal N_\infty(1/n,\mathcal F,2n)<\inftyN∞​(1/n,F,2n)<∞. With an infinite value the printed bound is vacuous.
  • Theorems 4 and 11 and Lemmas 12 and 14 add n≥2n\ge2n≥2. Theorem 3 and Bennett's display add n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Without these, Lean's convention 1/0=01/0=01/0=0 makes the printed formulas false at the excluded nnn.
  • Corollary 9's "set" {x1,…,xn}\{x_1,\dots,x_n\}{x1​,…,xn​} is read as a list, so repetitions are allowed.

Ruled-out trivializations:

  • SVP is not defined as the comparator f∗f^*f∗.
  • λ\lambdaλ is pinned to 18ln⁡(3M(n)/δ)\sqrt{18\ln(3\mathcal M(n)/\delta)}18ln(3M(n)/δ)​.
  • VnV_nVn​ is the sample variance, not the true variance.
  • No measurability of the bad event or of the selector is assumed.

A complete development needs the following:

  • the entropy method for self-bounding functions (Theorem 7);
  • Bennett's inequality for independent non-identical bounded variables;
  • product-measure symmetrization;
  • covering-number bookkeeping.

The concentration results of Section 2 and the symmetrization lemma are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome. Theorem 7 and Bennett's inequality are natural standalone contributions.

Selected references

  • A. Maurer, M. Pontil, Empirical Bernstein Bounds and Sample Variance Penalization, COLT 2009; arXiv:0907.3740v1, 2009. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3740
  • A. Maurer, Concentration inequalities for functions of independent variables, Random Structures & Algorithms 29, 121–138, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1002/rsa.20105
  • C. McDiarmid, Concentration, in Probabilistic Methods for Algorithmic Discrete Mathematics, Springer, 1998.
  • J.-Y. Audibert, R. Munos, Cs. Szepesvári, Exploration–exploitation trade-off using variance estimates in multi-armed bandits, Theoretical Computer Science 410(19), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcs.2009.01.016
  • V. Mnih, Cs. Szepesvári, J.-Y. Audibert, Empirical Bernstein stopping, ICML 2008. https://doi.org/10.1145/1390156.1390241
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, JASA 58, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
  • H. Namkoong, J. C. Duchi, Variance-based regularization with convex objectives, NeurIPS 2017; arXiv:1610.02581. https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.02581
21 thms3 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs: A Variable-Rate Queue Has an Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policy Whenever λ < max aβResearch Paper

Motivation

Controlled queues are the standard testing ground for Markov decision processes with infinitely many states: the state is a queue length, which is unbounded, and the holding cost grows with it. The classical theory of the average cost criterion (Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, 1970) produces an optimal stationary policy only when the relative discounted values are uniformly bounded, a condition that fails for almost every queue with unbounded holding costs. Linn I. Sennott's paper Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs (Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989, doi:10.1287/opre.37.4.626) replaced that boundedness by one-sided conditions that are checked in practice by a monotonicity argument and a single test function. Her conditions became the standard tool for queueing control and are the basis of Chapter 7 of her book Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999).

Timeline:

  • 1962–1970. Derman and Ross obtain average cost optimal stationary policies from the vanishing discount approach when the relative values hαh_\alphahα​ are bounded.
  • 1986. Sennott treats the queue with variable service rates under bounded costs and gives a first discrete-time Tauberian argument (Operations Research 34, 1986a; 1986b).
  • 1989. This paper: Assumptions 1–3, the Theorem, the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5, and applications to a packet system and to the queue with variable service rates (Proposition 8).

Setting

A Markov decision chain has states i=0,1,2,…i=0,1,2,\dotsi=0,1,2,…; in state iii a finite nonempty set AiA_iAi​ of actions; a cost 0≤C(i,a)<∞0\le C(i,a)<\infty0≤C(i,a)<∞; and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may depend on the whole history and may randomize; a stationary policy fff chooses f(i)∈Aif(i)\in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii. For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, Vθ,α(i)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vθ,α​(i) is the expected total α\alphaα-discounted cost from iii and Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i)=\inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), possibly infinite. The average cost of θ\thetaθ is

gθ(i)=lim sup⁡N→∞1N Eθ[∑t=0N−1C(Xt,at) ∣ X0=i].g_\theta(i)=\limsup_{N\to\infty}\frac1N\,E_\theta\Big[\sum_{t=0}^{N-1}C(X_t,a_t)\,\Big|\,X_0=i\Big].gθ​(i)=N→∞limsup​N1​Eθ​[t=0∑N−1​C(Xt​,at​)​X0​=i].

A stationary policy fff is average cost optimal if there is a finite constant ggg with g=gf(i)≤gθ(i)g=g_f(i)\le g_\theta(i)g=gf​(i)≤gθ​(i) for every policy θ\thetaθ and every state iii.

The queue with variable service rates (Example 2). Time is slotted; pip_ipi​ is the probability of iii arrivals in a slot, independently across slots. The state is the number of customers at the beginning of a slot. When the queue is nonempty the server chooses one of finitely many decision variables aaa and serves at rate aβ∈(0,1)a\beta\in(0,1)aβ∈(0,1), so that the customer in service leaves during the slot with probability aβa\betaaβ; there is no decision in state 000. From state i≥1i\ge1i≥1 the next state is i−1+ki-1+ki−1+k with probability aβpk+(1−aβ)pk−1a\beta p_k+(1-a\beta)p_{k-1}aβpk​+(1−aβ)pk−1​ (p−1=0p_{-1}=0p−1​=0), and from 000 it is jjj with probability pjp_jpj​. The cost structure: B(a)>0B(a)>0B(a)>0; QQQ a polynomial of degree n≥0n\ge0n≥0, nonnegative and increasing on i≥0i\ge0i≥0; C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0)C(0)=Q(0) and C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a)C(i,a)=Q(i)+B(a) for i≥1i\ge1i≥1. The arrival moments are λ(k)=∑iikpi\lambda^{(k)}=\sum_i i^kp_iλ(k)=∑i​ikpi​ and λ=λ(1)\lambda=\lambda^{(1)}λ=λ(1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8

If λ(n+1)<∞\lambda^{(n+1)}<\inftyλ(n+1)<∞, then

λ<max⁡a(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ \text{there is an average cost optimal stationary policy},λ<amax​(aβ) ⟹ there is an average cost optimal stationary policy,

and

λ<min⁡a(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i≥0,\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)\ \Longrightarrow\ g+h(i)=\min_a\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\},\quad i\ge0,λ<amin​(aβ) ⟹ g+h(i)=amin​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i≥0,

with ggg the optimal average cost, g=lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)g=\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)g=limα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i), and hhh bounded below.

Milestones

  1. Propositions 1–3 (p. 627): VαV_\alphaVα​ solves the discount optimality equation, is its minimal nonnegative solution, and is the limit of value iteration (already proved on the platform, referenced).
  2. The Lemma (p. 628): discount optimal stationary policies along αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 have a stationary limit point.
  3. Lemmas A1 and A2 (p. 632): the comparison between solutions of the optimality inequality and average costs, and lim sup⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα(i)≤gθ(i)\limsup_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)\le g_\theta(i)limsupα↑1​(1−α)Vα​(i)≤gθ​(i).
  4. The Theorem (p. 628): under Assumptions 1–3, any limit point fff from the Lemma is average cost optimal, with the optimality inequalities (5); under Assumption 3*, the optimality equation (6).
  5. Propositions 4, 5 and the Corollary (pp. 629–630): the Markov chain criteria that yield Assumptions 1, 3 and 3* from one well-behaved stationary policy.
  6. Two steps of the proof of Proposition 8 (p. 631): Vα(i)V_\alpha(i)Vα​(i) is increasing in iii (hence Assumption 2), and the drift of r(i)=Ain+1r(i)=Ai^{n+1}r(i)=Ain+1 is a polynomial of degree at most nnn with leading coefficient A(n+1)(λ−aβ)A(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)A(n+1)(λ−aβ), display (14).

Significance

Proposition 8 states that a queue in which at least one service rate exceeds the mean arrival rate has an average cost optimal stationary policy for holding costs of any polynomial growth, as long as the matching moment of the arrival distribution is finite. Bounded-cost results do not cover this case, which is the one used in practice. The general Theorem behind it is the standard vanishing discount theorem for countable-state models with unbounded costs; the Markov chain test of Propositions 4–5 and the Corollary reduces its hypotheses to a drift inequality for one policy.

All results of the paper are proved on paper. None is formalized: the platform has Sennott's discounted theory (Propositions 1–3, proved) and, as open statements, the book version of the Theorem (SennottDP.SEN.thm_7_2_3_sen_acoi), its existence part in a compact-action model (ArapostathisAC.SennottACOI.theorem_5_9), and the first half of Lemma A1 (SennottDP.SEN.lemma_7_2_1_acoi_bound). This mission states the paper's own version, with all conclusions of the Theorem, and its application to a concrete queue, which no platform item states.

Difficulty

The obvious route takes a limit of hα=Vα−Vα(0)h_\alpha=V_\alpha-V_\alpha(0)hα​=Vα​−Vα​(0) along a sequence αn→1\alpha_n\to1αn​→1 and passes to the limit in the discount optimality equation. With unbounded costs and unbounded hαh_\alphahα​ the sum ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) is an infinite series of terms that need not converge uniformly, so the limit of the sums is not the sum of the limits. Only an inequality survives (Fatou's lemma, which needs the lower bound of Assumption 2), and the equation needs the integrable upper bound of Assumption 3*. For the queue, the hypotheses are not visible from the model: they come from a monotonicity property of VαV_\alphaVα​ and a Lyapunov drift computation whose leading term, A(n+1)(λ−aβ)inA(n+1)(\lambda-a\beta)i^nA(n+1)(λ−aβ)in, has to dominate a cost polynomial of the same degree.

Formalization scope

The model is the published Markov decision chain of Sennott (1999), SennottDP.Discounted.MDC ℕ Act, with its policies, discounted costs and value functions, and the published average cost SennottDP.SEN.avgCost; Markov chains, steady state probabilities and first passage costs are the published SennottDP.MarkovCost objects. Conventions:

  • costs, discounted values and average costs lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; VαV_\alphaVα​ may be infinite unless Assumption 1 is assumed;
  • hαh_\alphahα​ is a real number, used only together with Assumption 1;
  • the constants NNN and MiM_iMi​ of Assumptions 2–3 are explicit and chosen before iii and α\alphaα; Assumption 3* uses the same MMM;
  • "average cost optimal" always carries a finite constant g≥0g\ge0g≥0 and compares with all policies, not only stationary ones;
  • sums ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) against a real function are extended reals (positive part minus negative part);
  • "ergodic" means positive recurrent (no aperiodicity);
  • in the queue, every decision is formally available in state 000 with identical cost Q(0)Q(0)Q(0) and identical transitions, which represents "no decision in state 0"; λ<max⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\max_a(a\beta)λ<maxa​(aβ) is "for some aaa" and λ<min⁡a(aβ)\lambda<\min_a(a\beta)λ<mina​(aβ) "for every aaa".

The second half of the goal is not "there exist ggg and hhh satisfying (6)": a pair solving (6) alone carries no optimality content, so the goal ties ggg to the optimal average cost and lim⁡α↑1(1−α)Vα\lim_{\alpha\uparrow1}(1-\alpha)V_\alphalimα↑1​(1−α)Vα​ and requires hhh bounded below. The Theorem's milestones are stated for every limit point given by the Lemma, not for some stationary policy. The hypotheses of the goal are satisfiable (two-point arrivals p0=3/4p_0=3/4p0​=3/4, p1=1/4p_1=1/4p1​=1/4, one rate aβ=1/2a\beta=1/2aβ=1/2, Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1Q(i)=i+1, B=1B=1B=1), so the goal is not vacuous.

A complete development needs a discrete Tauberian inequality (already proved on the platform), Fatou's lemma for series, a compactness argument on ∏iAi\prod_iA_i∏i​Ai​, first passage identities and a Foster–Lyapunov criterion for positive recurrence. The Markov chain criteria (Proposition 4, the Corollary) and the Theorem are reusable for every countable-state queueing control model. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Average Cost Optimal Stationary Policies in Infinite State Markov Decision Processes with Unbounded Costs, Operations Research 37(4):626–633, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • S. M. Ross, Applied Probability Models with Optimization Applications, Holden-Day, 1970.
  • A. G. Pakes, Some Conditions for Ergodicity and Recurrence of Markov Chains, Operations Research 17(6):1058–1061, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.17.6.1058
  • A. Arapostathis, V. S. Borkar, E. Fernández-Gaucherand, M. K. Ghosh, S. I. Marcus, Discrete-Time Controlled Markov Processes with Average Cost Criterion: A Survey, SIAM J. Control Optim. 31(2):282–344, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1137/0331018
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Convex OptimizationMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand: Adaptive(α, β) Has Per-Period Regret O(N(L)^(−1/3)) at α = β = 1/2Research Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory systems with lost sales and a positive replenishment lead time are a basic model of retail and spare-parts operations: demand that cannot be met from stock is lost, and an order placed today arrives τ\tauτ periods later. Even with a known demand distribution the optimal policy depends on the whole vector of outstanding orders and is intractable for long lead times, so practice and theory fall back on base-stock (order-up-to) policies, which are asymptotically optimal as the lost-sales penalty grows relative to the holding cost (Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong, Management Science 2009).

Computing the best base-stock level still requires the demand distribution. In many settings the distribution is unknown and, worse, demand is censored: the manager records sales, min⁡{Dt,It}\min\{D_t, I_t\}min{Dt​,It​}, and never sees the demand lost to a stockout. The paper behind this mission, Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong, An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand (working paper of February 8, 2007; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 2009, DOI 10.1287/moor.1080.0367), gives an algorithm that learns the optimal base-stock level from sales data alone and bounds its regret against the best base-stock policy. It extended the zero-lead-time adaptive newsvendor analyses (e.g. Huh and Rusmevichientong, Math. Oper. Res. 2009) to positive lead times, where the inventory process is a Markov chain on Rτ\mathbb R^\tauRτ.

Setting

Demands D1,D2,…D_1, D_2, \dotsD1​,D2​,… are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative, continuous random variable DDD with E[D]>0E[D] > 0E[D]>0 and distribution function FFF. The inventory vector in period ttt is

Xt=(Qt−1,…,Qt−τ+1,It)∈R+τ,X_t = (Q_{t-1}, \dots, Q_{t-\tau+1}, I_t) \in \mathbb R^\tau_+,Xt​=(Qt−1​,…,Qt−τ+1​,It​)∈R+τ​,

the τ−1\tau - 1τ−1 outstanding orders and the on-hand inventory ItI_tIt​; its inventory position is Xt⋅1τX_t \cdot \mathbf 1^\tauXt​⋅1τ. Under the order-up-to-SSS policy the manager orders Qt=[S−Xt⋅1τ]+Q_t = [S - X_t\cdot\mathbf 1^\tau]^+Qt​=[S−Xt​⋅1τ]+, demand DtD_tDt​ is realized, and

It+1=[It−Dt]++Qt−τ+1.I_{t+1} = [I_t - D_t]^+ + Q_{t-\tau+1}.It+1​=[It​−Dt​]++Qt−τ+1​.

A period with on-hand inventory yyy costs, in expectation, C(y)=h E[y−D]++b E[D−y]+C(y) = h\,E[y - D]^+ + b\,E[D - y]^+C(y)=hE[y−D]++bE[D−y]+, with holding cost hhh and lost-sales penalty bbb. The long-run average cost of level SSS is

C(I∞(S))=lim⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TE[C(It(S))],C(I_\infty(S)) = \lim_{T\to\infty} \frac1T \sum_{t=1}^T E[C(I_t(S))],C(I∞​(S))=T→∞lim​T1​t=1∑T​E[C(It​(S))],

and S∗S^*S∗ denotes a level minimizing it over S≥0S \ge 0S≥0. Write γ(S)=P[D≤S/(τ+1)]\gamma(S) = \mathcal P[D \le S/(\tau+1)]γ(S)=P[D≤S/(τ+1)].

The algorithm \textscAdaptive(α,β)\textsc{Adaptive}(\alpha,\beta)\textscAdaptive(α,β) runs in cycles k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,… of length Tk=⌈kβ⌉T_k = \lceil k^\beta\rceilTk​=⌈kβ⌉; N(L)=∑k≤LTkN(L) = \sum_{k\le L} T_kN(L)=∑k≤L​Tk​. Cycle kkk uses a fixed level SkS_kSk​. From sales data it computes a sample-path derivative I′I'I′ by a recursion over the last τ\tauτ periods, forms a gradient estimate Hk∈{h,−b,0}H_k \in \{h, -b, 0\}Hk​∈{h,−b,0} from the last period of the cycle, and sets Sk+1=P[M‾,M‾](Sk−ϵkHk)S_{k+1} = P_{[\underline M, \overline M]}(S_k - \epsilon_k H_k)Sk+1​=P[M​,M]​(Sk​−ϵk​Hk​) with ϵk=(M‾−M‾)/(max⁡{b,h}kα)\epsilon_k = (\overline M - \underline M)/(\max\{b,h\}k^\alpha)ϵk​=(M−M​)/(max{b,h}kα). The inventory is carried over between cycles. The regret after LLL cycles is

Λ(L)=E[∑k=1L∑j=1TkC(I(k,j))]−C(I∞(S∗)) N(L).\Lambda(L) = E\Big[\sum_{k=1}^L\sum_{j=1}^{T_k} C(I_{(k,j)})\Big] - C(I_\infty(S^*))\,N(L).Λ(L)=E[k=1∑L​j=1∑Tk​​C(I(k,j)​)]−C(I∞​(S∗))N(L).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10, corrected

Under Assumption 1 (0≤M‾≤S∗≤M‾0 \le \underline M \le S^* \le \overline M0≤M​≤S∗≤M and γ(M‾)>0\gamma(\underline M) > 0γ(M​)>0) and infinite support of DDD, for α,β∈(0,1)\alpha,\beta \in (0,1)α,β∈(0,1) and L≥1L \ge 1L≥1, with N=N(L)N = N(L)N=N(L) and ν=max⁡{1−γ(M‾)2τ,F(M‾),1/e}\nu = \max\{1 - \gamma(\underline M)^{2\tau}, F(\overline M), 1/e\}ν=max{1−γ(M​)2τ,F(M),1/e},

Λ(L)N≤(b+h)[(M‾−M‾)(4N1−α1+β+4/(1−α)Nα1+β+C3N11+β)+M‾ 24τ/ln⁡(1/ν)Nβ1+β],\frac{\Lambda(L)}{N} \le (b+h)\Big[(\overline M - \underline M)\Big(\frac{4}{N^{\frac{1-\alpha}{1+\beta}}} + \frac{4/(1-\alpha)}{N^{\frac{\alpha}{1+\beta}}} + \frac{C_3}{N^{\frac1{1+\beta}}}\Big) + \overline M\,\frac{24\tau/\ln(1/\nu)}{N^{\frac{\beta}{1+\beta}}}\Big],NΛ(L)​≤(b+h)[(M−M​)(N1+β1−α​4​+N1+βα​4/(1−α)​+N1+β1​C3​​)+MN1+ββ​24τ/ln(1/ν)​],

with C3=12(4τ)1/βΓ(1/β)(1/β)/(ln⁡(1/ν))1/βC_3 = 12(4\tau)^{1/\beta}\Gamma(1/\beta)(1/\beta)/(\ln(1/\nu))^{1/\beta}C3​=12(4τ)1/βΓ(1/β)(1/β)/(ln(1/ν))1/β. At α=β=1/2\alpha = \beta = 1/2α=β=1/2 this is O(N−1/3)O(N^{-1/3})O(N−1/3).

Milestones

Lemma 5 (tail of D1+⋯+DtD_1 + \dots + D_tD1​+⋯+Dt​), Lemma 6 (the inventory position falls to SSS), Theorem 7 (existence, independence of the start, convexity and differentiability of C(I∞(S))C(I_\infty(S))C(I∞​(S)), and existence of S∗S^*S∗ with γ(S∗)>0\gamma(S^*) > 0γ(S∗)>0), Theorem 11 (projected stochastic gradient descent with biased gradients), Lemmas 12 and 13 (sums over cycles of length ⌈kβ⌉\lceil k^\beta\rceil⌈kβ⌉), Lemma 14 (the regret Λ1\Lambda_1Λ1​ from Sk≠S∗S_k \ne S^*Sk​=S∗) and Lemma 15 (the transient regret Λ2\Lambda_2Λ2​).

Significance

The theorem gives a nonparametric, sales-only policy whose average cost approaches that of the best base-stock policy at an explicit polynomial rate, uniformly over demand distributions satisfying Assumption 1. Its ingredients are reusable: an explicit geometric ergodicity rate for the lost-sales base-stock chain, convexity of the long-run base-stock cost in SSS, and a regret bound for projected gradient descent whose gradients are biased by Markov dependence.

The result is published; to our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. The mission formalizes the regret bound, which requires Markov-chain ergodicity on a continuous state space, long-run averages, and stochastic approximation with biased gradients. It also repairs the printed constants: Theorem 10 and Lemma 15 are false as printed (see Formalization scope), and the formal statements make the dependence on M‾\overline MM explicit.

Difficulty

The obvious route treats the cycle's last-period derivative as an unbiased gradient of C(I∞(Sk))C(I_\infty(S_k))C(I∞​(Sk​)) and applies standard online convex optimization. That fails: the estimate is computed from a Markov chain started at whatever state the previous cycle left, so it is biased, and the bias decays only as the chain mixes. Controlling the bias requires an explicit mixing rate for a chain on R+τ×{0,1}τ\mathbb R^\tau_+ \times \{0,1\}^\tauR+τ​×{0,1}τ whose state includes the derivative process, uniformly over the levels in [M‾,M‾][\underline M, \overline M][M​,M] and over starting positions above SSS. The ergodicity argument uses a coalescing demand pattern, which exists only when γ(S)>0\gamma(S) > 0γ(S)>0; without that condition the chain need not be ergodic. A second obstacle is that the objective C(I∞(S))C(I_\infty(S))C(I∞​(S)) is defined as a long-run average, so its convexity and differentiability in SSS must be established before any gradient argument applies.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated in Lean 4 with Mathlib. The inventory vector is a pair (pipeline Fin (τ-1) → ℝ, newest order first; on-hand ℝ). Lean periods are 000-based (Lean period ttt is the paper's t+1t+1t+1); cycles are numbered from 111. Demand is a sequence on a probability space that is i.i.d., nonnegative, integrable, with E[D]>0E[D] > 0E[D]>0 and an atomless law; infinite support is F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx; τ≥1\tau \ge 1τ≥1, h,b>0h, b > 0h,b>0. The long-run cost is a limsup of Cesàro averages from the empty start (Theorem 7 shows it is a limit from every start), and S∗S^*S∗ is any minimizer over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The algorithm is a deterministic function of the demand path; the sample derivative is the recursion the algorithm computes, not a derivative. Integrability of every expectation follows from boundedness of the inventory and is not assumed.

Corrections, all disclosed in the items: Theorem 10 carries M‾\overline MM instead of M‾−M‾\overline M - \underline MM−M​ on the C4C_4C4​ term, because the printed bound fails for M‾=M‾=S∗\underline M = \overline M = S^*M​=M=S∗, X(1,1)=0X_{(1,1)} = 0X(1,1)​=0, L=1L = 1L=1, where the right side is 000 and Λ(1)=C(0)−C(I∞(S∗))>0\Lambda(1) = C(0) - C(I_\infty(S^*)) > 0Λ(1)=C(0)−C(I∞​(S∗))>0. Lemma 15 carries M‾\overline MM and 12τ+112\tau + 112τ+1. Lemma 14 keeps its printed constant; its proof appears to use the ergodicity theorem one period early. Theorem 11 is stated on an interval with the bias taken conditionally on the history. Lemmas 5 and 6 are stated for infinite support only.

A goal that bounds the regret by Λ1\Lambda_1Λ1​ alone (costs at the steady state of SkS_kSk​), or that lets the levels be any sequence in [M‾,M‾][\underline M, \overline M][M​,M], is not the theorem: the regret here uses the realized inventory of the algorithm. Lean's conventions x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0 and ln⁡\lnln of a nonpositive number cannot trivialize the bound, because infinite support and γ(M‾)>0\gamma(\underline M) > 0γ(M​)>0 give ν∈[1/e,1)\nu \in [1/e, 1)ν∈[1/e,1). The source is the authors' working paper of February 8, 2007, whose printed page numbers equal the PDF's.

Not yet stated: Theorem 3 and Lemma 4 (ergodicity rate), Theorem 8 and Lemma 9 (bias bounds), Theorem 1 (sample derivatives). They need the joint chain (Xt,Xt′)(X_t, X'_t)(Xt​,Xt′​) and are welcome as contributions, as are the general pieces: geometric ergodicity via coalescence, and the biased projected-gradient bound.

Selected references

  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt, P. Rusmevichientong, An Adaptive Algorithm for Finding the Optimal Base-Stock Policy in Lost Sales Inventory Systems with Censored Demand, working paper, 2007; Mathematics of Operations Research 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0367
  • W. T. Huh, G. Janakiraman, J. A. Muckstadt, P. Rusmevichientong, Asymptotic Optimality of Order-up-to Policies in Lost Sales Inventory Systems, Management Science 55(3), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0945
  • W. T. Huh, P. Rusmevichientong, A Nonparametric Asymptotic Analysis of Inventory Planning with Censored Demand, Mathematics of Operations Research 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1080.0355
  • G. Janakiraman, R. O. Roundy, Lost-Sales Problems with Stochastic Lead Times: Convexity Results for Base-Stock Policies, Operations Research 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0130
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Asymptotic Calibration: The Regret-Balancing Randomised Forecast on the Grid {0, 1/k, …, 1} with k ≥ 1/ε² Is ε-Calibrated against Every Adaptive NatureResearch Paper

Motivation

A probability forecast is useful only when its stated frequencies bear a stable relation to outcomes. If a forecaster repeatedly announces a 70% chance of rain, calibration asks whether rain occurs on about 70% of those days. This is a minimal reliability requirement for probabilistic prediction, even though calibration alone does not rank every pair of forecasts by usefulness. Foster and Vohra study the difficulty of obtaining this property when the weather sequence is chosen in response to a forecaster's past behavior. A deterministic rule can be forced into a persistent calibration error; the article shows how randomized forecasts evade that obstruction when Nature sees past forecasts but cannot see the current random draw. Foster and Vohra, 1998.

The work sits at an intersection of sequential probability forecasting and repeated games. Its opponent can adapt to the whole observed history, including the forecaster's earlier random outcomes. The simultaneity of each round matters: before choosing that round's wet or dry outcome, Nature knows the distribution of the next forecast but not which forecast is realized. The paper's main result is about a specified forecasting rule constructed from regret balances, rather than merely the existence of some successful randomized strategy. Foster and Vohra, 1998, §§3, 5.

Timeline. Dawid (1982) proposed calibration as a criterion for sequential probability forecasts and showed that a coherent Bayesian expects to be calibrated (doi). Oakes (1985), with Dawid's accompanying comment, showed that no deterministic forecaster is calibrated against every outcome sequence: Nature may rain exactly when the forecast is at most 1/21/21/2 (doi). Foster and Vohra circulated the present randomized construction from 1994 (received August 1994, published 1998); their 1997 Games and Economic Behavior paper used a calibrated forecaster built on the same pairwise-regret flow equations to reach correlated equilibria (doi). Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) later turned the same internal-regret quantities into regret matching (doi).

Setting

At round sss, the outcome XsX_sXs​ is 111 for wet and 000 for dry. The forecaster selects a probability from the finite grid Gk={0,1/k,…,1}G_k=\{0,1/k,\ldots,1\}Gk​={0,1/k,…,1}, where kkk is a positive integer. A forecast ppp is represented by the binary probability vector (1−p,p)(1-p,p)(1−p,p); the second coordinate is the forecast chance of rain. The forecaster chooses i/ki/ki/k with probability μsi\mu_s^iμsi​. The Brier loss of that possible forecast is Lsi=(Xs−i/k)2L_s^i=(X_s-i/k)^2Lsi​=(Xs​−i/k)2.

After ttt rounds, nt(p)n_t(p)nt​(p) counts the realized forecasts equal to ppp, and ρt(p)\rho_t(p)ρt​(p) is the observed fraction of wet outcomes on those rounds. The quadratic calibration score is

Ct=∑p∈Gknt(p)t(ρt(p)−p)2.C_t=\sum_{p\in G_k}\frac{n_t(p)}{t}\bigl(\rho_t(p)-p\bigr)^2.Ct​=p∈Gk​∑​tnt​(p)​(ρt​(p)−p)2.

A forecast never issued has zero count and contributes zero. The paper also uses a weighted calibration score C~t\widetilde C_tCt​, in which the realized indicator that i/ki/ki/k was chosen is replaced by its conditional probability μsi\mu_s^iμsi​. Its weighted count is n~t(i/k)=∑s<tμsi\widetilde n_t(i/k)=\sum_{s<t}\mu_s^int​(i/k)=∑s<t​μsi​, and its weighted wet frequency is ρ~t(i/k)=∑s<tμsiXs/n~t(i/k)\widetilde\rho_t(i/k)=\sum_{s<t}\mu_s^i X_s/\widetilde n_t(i/k)ρ​t​(i/k)=∑s<t​μsi​Xs​/nt​(i/k) when the denominator is positive.

For grid points i/ki/ki/k and j/kj/kj/k, the pairwise regret Rti→jR_t^{i\to j}Rti→j​ is the positive part of the cumulative weighted reduction in Brier loss that would result from replacing i/ki/ki/k by j/kj/kj/k on rounds weighted by μsi\mu_s^iμsi​. The algorithm chooses its next distribution so that the regret flow out of each iii equals the flow into iii:

μsi∑jRs−1i→j=∑jμsjRs−1j→i.\mu_s^i\sum_j R_{s-1}^{i\to j} =\sum_j\mu_s^j R_{s-1}^{j\to i}.μsi​j∑​Rs−1i→j​=j∑​μsj​Rs−1j→i​.

These equations use only regret from previous rounds. They specify a distribution after every possible history, including histories created by Nature's adaptive choices. Foster and Vohra, 1998, §5.

Formalization targets

Main theorem

The target is Theorem 1: for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, choose k≥1/ε2k\ge1/\varepsilon^2k≥1/ε2 and let the forecaster follow the regret-flow equations. Against every adaptive Nature, the realized score eventually satisfies

Pr⁡{Ct<ε}>1−ε.\Pr\{C_t<\varepsilon\}>1-\varepsilon.Pr{Ct​<ε}>1−ε.

The time after which the inequality holds may depend on the forecaster, Nature, and ε\varepsilonε. The statement fixes the algorithm and the grid scale; a general existence theorem would leave out its central content. Foster and Vohra, 1998, Theorem 1 and §6 Corollary.

Supporting targets

The milestones record the source's attack path: solvability of the flow equations, a history-adapted forecaster satisfying them, the counting-process bounds and convergence of Ct−C~tC_t-\widetilde C_tCt​−Ct​ in probability, the algebraic link between calibration and regret, the bound on the smoothed regret potential, and the deterministic bound on C~t\widetilde C_tCt​. Theorem 3's last constant is written as (k+1)/(2δ)(k+1)/(2\delta)(k+1)/(2δ) and the corollary's horizon as 8k2/ε28k^2/\varepsilon^28k2/ε2; the printed constants are inconsistent with the paper's k+1k+1k+1 grid points and its derived rate, respectively. The provenance and corrections are recorded with those milestones. Foster and Vohra, 1998, §6.

Significance

The result gives a concrete randomized forecaster whose realized empirical frequencies remain reliable even when outcomes react to past forecasts. The game model includes fixed outcome sequences as a special case, but its adaptive Nature can condition future choices on every earlier realized forecast and outcome. The theorem therefore identifies a particular sequential rule, its finite forecast grid, and the information boundary under which its guarantee holds. Foster and Vohra, 1998, §§3, 5–6.

The published Foster–Vohra 1997 formalization already supplies reusable definitions of finite probability vectors, history laws, pairwise regret, and calibration scores, together with a proved finite flow-conservation theorem. This mission extends that substrate to the 1998 paper's Brier-loss grid algorithm. Theorem 1 and its supporting results are proved on paper but not yet formalized; the earlier formal existence theorem for some calibrated forecaster does not establish this algorithm's guarantee, which is the content of the goal.

Difficulty

The weighted score C~t\widetilde C_tCt​ is controlled by quantities known from the chosen mixtures, while CtC_tCt​ depends on the actual random draws. A direct deterministic bound on CtC_tCt​ therefore does not follow from the regret equations. The gap requires a quantitative comparison of realized counts and weighted counts under an adaptive history law, followed by a passage from those count errors to the nonlinear calibration score. The regret itself has a positive-part kink, so its aggregate bound is stated through the paper's smoothed potential. Foster and Vohra, 1998, §6.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses binary outcomes, k+1k+1k+1 grid indices Fin (k + 1), and histories ordered from oldest to newest. Rounds start at index 000: the paper's Rs−1R_{s-1}Rs−1​ in round sss is the regret over the preceding sss indices. Forecast and outcome are drawn independently conditional on the past by the published histLaw; Nature is any map from complete past histories to a probability distribution on the two outcomes. The forecast rule is likewise a map from histories to grid distributions. For each earlier round it reads only that round's prefix, so the current outcome cannot influence its mixture.

The goal uses the realized quadratic score calibScore2Hj h 1, whose second vector coordinate is the wet probability. The map i↦(1−i/k,i/k)i\mapsto(1-i/k,i/k)i↦(1−i/k,i/k) is injective for k>0k>0k>0. The weighted score is a separate definition used in supporting results. A forecaster satisfying the flow equations is shown to exist by a milestone, so the goal's algorithm hypothesis has content. The statement covers adaptive Nature; replacing Nature by a fixed sequence or replacing CtC_tCt​ by C~t\widetilde C_tCt​ would change the claim.

Every theorem requiring the grid has the explicit k>0k>0k>0 condition. Deterministic calibration bounds assume binary outcomes and probability-vector weights; the history-law theorems obtain these properties from Fin 2 and PMF. When a weighted count is zero, Lean's division convention gives weighted wet frequency 000; nonnegative weights make its numerator zero as well. At horizon 000, the weighted calibration score is 000. The probability event is measured with the history law's outer measure in R≥0∪{∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{\infty\}R≥0​∪{∞}. Reusable work includes finite-history martingale estimates, weighted calibration comparisons, and finite regret-potential bounds.

Selected references

  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Asymptotic calibration, Biometrika 85(2):379–390, 1998. DOI: 10.1093/biomet/85.2.379.
  • A. P. Dawid, The well-calibrated Bayesian, Journal of the American Statistical Association 77:605–613, 1982. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1982.10477856.
  • D. Oakes, Self-calibrating priors do not exist, Journal of the American Statistical Association 80:339, 1985, with comments by A. P. Dawid (pp. 340–341) and M. Schervish (pp. 341–342). DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1985.10478117.
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21:40–55, 1997. DOI: 10.1006/game.1997.0595.
  • D. Blackwell, An analog of the minimax theorem for vector payoffs, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 6:1–8, 1956. DOI: 10.2140/pjm.1956.6.1.
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 68:1127–1150, 2000. DOI: 10.1111/1468-0262.00153.
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Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 3: With One Markdown or Markup Allowed, Thresholds x_n < z_n Give the Optimal PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of seasonal goods, home builders selling out a development, and airlines and cruise lines selling promotional fares all face the same operational question: inventory is fixed, the selling season is finite, and the price can be changed only rarely. Menu costs, advertising commitments and customer goodwill often restrict a seller to a single price change. The question is then when to change the price, and, if both a lower and a higher price are available, in which direction.

Feng and Gallego (Management Science 41(8), 1995) answered this for Poisson demand. Their §4 treats a single markdown (Theorem 1) and a single markup (Theorem 2). This mission formalizes their §5, the markup-or-markdown problem: the seller starts at a middle price and has one opportunity to move either down or up. The paper shows that the optimal policy is again described by time thresholds that depend only on the remaining stock, now two per stock level. The paper builds on the deterministic and fluid analysis of Gallego and van Ryzin (1994), where arbitrarily many price changes are allowed, and is the starting point of a literature on limited-price-change revenue management surveyed by Bitran and Caldentey (2003).

Setting

There are three prices p1<p<p2p_1 < p < p_2p1​<p<p2​. At price pip_ipi​ demand is a Poisson process of intensity λi\lambda_iλi​, and at ppp of intensity λ\lambdaλ, with

λ1>λ>λ2,r1>r>r2,ri=piλi, r=pλ,\lambda_1 > \lambda > \lambda_2, \qquad r_1 > r > r_2, \qquad r_i = p_i\lambda_i,\ r = p\lambda,λ1​>λ>λ2​,r1​>r>r2​,ri​=pi​λi​, r=pλ,

all prices and intensities positive. Lowering the price raises both the sales rate and the revenue rate. Salvage value is zero. Note that in this section p1p_1p1​ is the lower price; the initial price is ppp.

A seller with nnn units and time-to-go ttt sells at ppp and may switch once, to p1p_1p1​ or to p2p_2p2​. Write N(⋅)N(\cdot)N(⋅) for the demand process at ppp and Ni(⋅)N_i(\cdot)Ni​(⋅) for that at pip_ipi​.

  • Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi)Emin⁡(n,N(s))+piEmin⁡(n,N(s)+Ni(t−s))J^i(n,t;s) = (p - p_i)E\min(n,N(s)) + p_iE\min(n, N(s) + N_i(t-s))Ji(n,t;s)=(p−pi​)Emin(n,N(s))+pi​Emin(n,N(s)+Ni​(t−s)) is the expected revenue of switching to pip_ipi​ after sss time units.
  • J(n,t;0)=max⁡{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)}J(n,t;0) = \max\{J^1(n,t;0), J^2(n,t;0)\}J(n,t;0)=max{J1(n,t;0),J2(n,t;0)} is the revenue of switching at once to the better alternative, and J(n,t;t)=pEmin⁡(n,N(t))J(n,t;t) = pE\min(n,N(t))J(n,t;t)=pEmin(n,N(t)) the revenue of never switching.
  • The optimal revenue is
J(n,t)=sup⁡τ∈TE[pmin⁡(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],J(n,t) = \sup_{\tau \in \mathcal T} E\bigl[p\min(n,N(\tau)) + J(n - N(\tau), t - \tau; 0)\bigr],J(n,t)=τ∈Tsup​E[pmin(n,N(τ))+J(n−N(τ),t−τ;0)],

where T\mathcal TT is the set of stopping times of the history of NNN with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.

  • Gi(n,t)=r−ri−pi(λ−λi)P(Ni(t)≥n)G^i(n,t) = r - r_i - p_i(\lambda - \lambda_i)P(N_i(t) \ge n)Gi(n,t)=r−ri​−pi​(λ−λi​)P(Ni​(t)≥n).
  • Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0)\Delta^i(n,t) = J(n,t;t) - J^i(n,t;0)Δi(n,t)=J(n,t;t)−Ji(n,t;0) and Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0)\Delta(n,t) = J^1(n,t;0) - J^2(n,t;0)Δ(n,t)=J1(n,t;0)−J2(n,t;0), with first positive zeros tnit^i_ntni​ and tnt_ntn​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (pp. 1385–1386)

Under the paper's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ for every nnn, there are strictly increasing sequences (xn)(x_n)(xn​), (zn)(z_n)(zn​) with

xn<tn1<tn<tn2<znx_n < t^1_n < t_n < t^2_n < z_nxn​<tn1​<tn​<tn2​<zn​

such that J(n,t)=V(n,t)J(n,t) = V(n,t)J(n,t)=V(n,t), where V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0) + F(n,t)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)+F(n,t) for xn≤t≤znx_n \le t \le z_nxn​≤t≤zn​ and V(n,t)=J(n,t;0)V(n,t) = J(n,t;0)V(n,t)=J(n,t;0) otherwise. The excess F(n,⋅)F(n,\cdot)F(n,⋅) equals H1(n,⋅)H^1(n,\cdot)H1(n,⋅) on [xn,tn][x_n,t_n][xn​,tn​] and H2(n,⋅)H^2(n,\cdot)H2(n,⋅) on [tn,zn][t_n,z_n][tn​,zn​]. Each HiH^iHi solves

∂H∂t=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],\frac{\partial H}{\partial t} = -\lambda H + L^i(n,t), \qquad L^i(n,t) = G^i(n,t) + \lambda\bigl[V(n-1,t) - J^i(n-1,t;0)\bigr],∂t∂H​=−λH+Li(n,t),Li(n,t)=Gi(n,t)+λ[V(n−1,t)−Ji(n−1,t;0)],

with H1(n,xn)=0H^1(n,x_n) = 0H1(n,xn​)=0 and H2(n,tn)=H1(n,tn)H^2(n,t_n) = H^1(n,t_n)H2(n,tn​)=H1(n,tn​). The thresholds are xn=inf⁡{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0}x_n = \inf\{t \ge 0 : L^1(n,t) = 0\}xn​=inf{t≥0:L1(n,t)=0} and zn=inf⁡{t≥tn:H2(n,t)≤0}z_n = \inf\{t \ge t_n : H^2(n,t) \le 0\}zn​=inf{t≥tn​:H2(n,t)≤0}.

Milestones

  1. (16), p. 1385: ∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t)\partial J^i(n,t;0)/\partial t = r - \lambda[J^i(n,t;0) - J^i(n-1,t;0)] - G^i(n,t)∂Ji(n,t;0)/∂t=r−λ[Ji(n,t;0)−Ji(n−1,t;0)]−Gi(n,t).
  2. Lemma 2, p. 1379, in both cases: the zeros of G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) increase strictly in nnn, and G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅) changes sign exactly once.
  3. Lemma 3, p. 1382, in both cases: J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t) - J(n,t;0)J(n,t;t)−J(n,t;0) changes sign exactly once at a strictly increasing sequence tnt_ntn​, and is monotone beyond it.
  4. Lemma 1, p. 1378: a verification criterion identifying J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) as the solution of a system of differential equations and inequalities.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the two-directional problem has the same simple structure as the one-directional ones. With mmm units left and time-to-go uuu, the seller marks down at once when uuu falls below xmx_mxm​, marks up at once when uuu exceeds zmz_mzm​, and otherwise keeps the price. Because the thresholds increase with the stock, the policy reduces to a table of 2n2n2n numbers, which the paper computes for a housing example (Table 5). The theorem also quantifies the value of flexibility: in that example, allowing either direction adds about $1,500 over the markdown-only policy and about $7,000 over the markup-only policy.

Lemma 3 and the verification Lemma 1 are reusable beyond this mission. Lemma 3 is a sign-change property of differences of Poisson tail sums, of the kind that drives threshold results in revenue management. Lemma 1 is a sufficient condition for the value of an optimal stopping problem driven by a Poisson process. The paper's results are proved with pen and paper only; none of them has a machine-checked proof. The formalization adds a precise statement of Lemma 1, whose printed hypotheses are insufficient (see the scope section), and an explicit record of which threshold facts Theorem 3 depends on.

Difficulty

The value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum over stopping times of a continuous-time process, and the obvious approach, dynamic programming over the stock, needs the value one stock level down. The thresholds at stock n+1n+1n+1 are defined through V(n,⋅)V(n,\cdot)V(n,⋅), so the structure must be propagated from one stock level to the next, and several properties have to propagate together. One must know that L1(n+1,⋅)L^1(n+1,\cdot)L1(n+1,⋅) again has a single sign change, which requires V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0)V(n,\cdot) - J^1(n,\cdot;0)V(n,⋅)−J1(n,⋅;0) to be increasing beyond xnx_nxn​. One must also know that H2(n+1,⋅)H^2(n+1,\cdot)H2(n+1,⋅) is positive up to tn+12t^2_{n+1}tn+12​ and eventually negative, so that zn+1z_{n+1}zn+1​ is finite, and that zn<zn+1z_n < z_{n+1}zn​<zn+1​. These facts concern three different price pairs at once: (p,p1)(p,p_1)(p,p1​), (p,p2)(p,p_2)(p,p2​) and (p1,p2)(p_1,p_2)(p1​,p2​). A direct comparison of VVV with the two one-directional value functions fails, because the optimal direction itself depends on the stock and the time-to-go. The verification step needs a pathwise fundamental theorem of calculus for the Poisson-driven process, which is where the regularity hypothesis on VVV matters.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Demand at ppp is the counting process of i.i.d. exponential interarrival times from the published definition QueueingFundamentals_Foundations_ArrivalProcess. The rate enters through the hypothesis IsExpInterarrivals P lam T, and Ni(t−s)N_i(t-s)Ni​(t−s) enters only through its law: the sum N(s)+Ni(t−s)N(s) + N_i(t-s)N(s)+Ni​(t−s) is written through its Poisson(λs+λi(t−s))(\lambda s + \lambda_i(t-s))(λs+λi​(t−s)) law. T\mathcal TT is the class of real-valued stopping times τ\tauτ of the σ-algebras generated by the counts N(u)N(u)N(u), 0≤u≤s0 \le u \le s0≤u≤s, with 0≤τ≤t0 \le \tau \le t0≤τ≤t and N(τ)≤nN(\tau) \le nN(τ)≤n almost surely.
  • Conventions. Time is time-to-go, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0; ODEs are imposed at every t>0t > 0t>0 through HasDerivAt. Threshold sequences are indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Every infimum is a real sInf paired with the nonemptiness of its set. FFF, H1H^1H1, H2H^2H2, VVV and the thresholds are existentially quantified and tied together by the theorem's equations, so the existential determines the paper's objects. The page's assumption tn1<tn<tn2t^1_n < t_n < t^2_ntn1​<tn​<tn2​ is a hypothesis of the goal, as on the page.
  • Added hypotheses. Prices and intensities are positive, the paper's standing convention. Lemma 1 as printed is false. It is stated with the boundary condition V(n,0)=J(n,0;0)V(n,0) = J(n,0;0)V(n,0)=J(n,0;0), the zero-stock condition V(0,t)=0V(0,t) = 0V(0,t)=0, the obstacle condition V≥J(⋅;0)V \ge J(\cdot;0)V≥J(⋅;0), and local Lipschitz continuity of VVV in place of "continuous and almost everywhere differentiable". The page's proof uses all four. Lemma 2's printed "bounded" is corrected to "bounded away from zero", since yn→∞y_n \to \inftyyn​→∞.
  • No trivialization. No statement assumes the optimality identity, the verification conditions, the derivative identity (16), or any sign-change fact as a hypothesis. A goal that defined VVV and assumed J=VJ = VJ=V, or that left the thresholds unrelated to L1L^1L1 and H2H^2H2, would not be Theorem 3.
  • Infrastructure needed. Poisson tail calculus (differentiation of Emin⁡(n,N(t))E\min(n, N(t))Emin(n,N(t)) in ttt), variation-diminishing properties of the kernel e−λ(t−u)e^{-\lambda(t-u)}e−λ(t−u), linear first-order ODEs, and a martingale decomposition for Poisson counting processes evaluated at bounded stopping times. Contributions of any of these, or of proofs of the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8):1371–1391, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • P. Brémaud, Point Processes and Queues: Martingale Dynamics, Springer, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-9477-8
  • S. Karlin, Total Positivity, Vol. 1, Stanford University Press, 1968.
  • G. Bitran and R. Caldentey, An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 5(3):203–229, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.5.3.203.16031
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Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 2: Markup Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Exceeds an Increasing Threshold z_nResearch Paper

Why a promotional fare needs a switching rule

An airline may offer a low promotional fare while seats remain available, then raise the fare as departure approaches. The choice is dynamic: a sale changes both the number of seats left and the benefit of waiting. The same decision appears for hotel rooms and theater seats. Feng and Gallego study a policy with two fixed prices and at most one price change, while allowing the switching time to depend on actual sales rather than a calendar date chosen in advance. Their 1995 paper proves that this adaptive problem has an inventory-dependent threshold rule. This mission isolates the markup case, in which the second price is higher than the first.

The two-price restriction has a practical role. A seller may know the fare classes it can offer while still needing to decide when to close the promotional class. The result identifies a sequence of time thresholds that can be computed for the chosen price pair. It is therefore a structural claim about an optimal policy, not a choice of numerical prices or a claim that two prices optimize over every possible price menu.

Demand, inventory, and admissible decisions

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 items and t≥0t\ge0t≥0 units of time-to-go. At price pip_ipi​, sales requests follow a Poisson counting process NiN_iNi​ with rate λi\lambda_iλi​. Each request sells one item while stock remains. The paper assumes that demand falls as price rises and that the lower price has the higher revenue rate. Thus the markup case has

0<p1<p2,0<λ2<λ1,p2λ2<p1λ1.0<p_1<p_2,\qquad 0<\lambda_2<\lambda_1,\qquad p_2\lambda_2<p_1\lambda_1.0<p1​<p2​,0<λ2​<λ1​,p2​λ2​<p1​λ1​.

The salvage value at the end of the horizon is zero. A fixed switch at time s∈[0,t]s\in[0,t]s∈[0,t] charges p1p_1p1​ first and p2p_2p2​ afterwards. Its expected revenue, denoted J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s), is

J(n,t;s)=(p1−p2)∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)≥j}+p2∑j=1nPr⁡{N1(s)+N2(t−s)≥j}.J(n,t;s)=(p_1-p_2)\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)\ge j\} +p_2\sum_{j=1}^n\Pr\{N_1(s)+N_2(t-s)\ge j\}.J(n,t;s)=(p1​−p2​)j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)≥j}+p2​j=1∑n​Pr{N1​(s)+N2​(t−s)≥j}.

The two counts in the last term are independent, so their sum has Poisson mean λ1s+λ2(t−s)\lambda_1s+\lambda_2(t-s)λ1​s+λ2​(t−s). This is the expression in §3 of the paper. In particular, J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0) is the revenue from increasing the price immediately.

An admissible switching time τ\tauτ uses only the history of sales at p1p_1p1​; it lies between zero and ttt and cannot wait past stock exhaustion. The optimal value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) is the supremum of expected revenue over these stopping times. The stopping decision may react to sales before the change, but it cannot anticipate future requests. This distinction matters because a deterministic switch time generally has less information than an adaptive one.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2 on pp. 1382–1383. Define the switching function

G(n,t)=p1λ1−p2λ2−p2(λ1−λ2)Pr⁡{N2(t)≥n},yn=inf⁡{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.G(n,t)=p_1\lambda_1-p_2\lambda_2 -p_2(\lambda_1-\lambda_2)\Pr\{N_2(t)\ge n\}, \qquad y_n=\inf\{u\ge0:G(n,u)=0\}.G(n,t)=p1​λ1​−p2​λ2​−p2​(λ1​−λ2​)Pr{N2​(t)≥n},yn​=inf{u≥0:G(n,u)=0}.

There are thresholds xn,znx_n,z_nxn​,zn​ with yn≤xn<zny_n\le x_n<z_nyn​≤xn​<zn​, and (zn)n≥1(z_n)_{n\ge1}(zn​)n≥1​ is increasing. A continuation premium FFF gives the value

J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),t<zn,J(n,t;0),t≥zn.J(n,t)=\begin{cases} J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),&t<z_n,\\ J(n,t;0),&t\ge z_n. \end{cases}J(n,t)={J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),J(n,t;0),​t<zn​,t≥zn​.​

For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t)F(n,t)=H(n,t) below znz_nzn​ and is zero at or above it; F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0. The function HHH satisfies H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0 and the differential equation ∂tH(n,t)=−λ1H(n,t)+L(n,t)\partial_tH(n,t)=-\lambda_1H(n,t)+L(n,t)∂t​H(n,t)=−λ1​H(n,t)+L(n,t), where L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t). The remaining thresholds are the first nonnegative zero of L(n,⋅)L(n,\cdot)L(n,⋅) and the first positive zero of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅):

xn=inf⁡{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn=inf⁡{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.x_n=\inf\{u\ge0:L(n,u)=0\},\qquad z_n=\inf\{u>0:H(n,u)=0\}.xn​=inf{u≥0:L(n,u)=0},zn​=inf{u>0:H(n,u)=0}.

The milestones reproduce equation (17), the markup half of Lemma 2, and Lemma 1. Together they identify the Poisson derivative identity, the sign change of GGG, and the verification criterion used to relate a candidate value to optimal stopping. The paper proves the mathematical result; the mission asks for machine-checked proofs of these formal statements.

What the result supplies

The threshold sequence tells a seller when increasing the price immediately is optimal, conditional on the stock still available. The value formula also gives the benefit of continuing at the promotional price when time-to-go lies below the threshold. The statement preserves the paper's weaker word “increasing” for znz_nzn​: it asserts monotonicity and does not require strict monotonicity of either sequence. The full theorem includes the recursive equations for FFF and HHH, so a proof of a threshold-shaped region alone would leave part of the source result unformalized.

Formalization would add a reusable optimal-stopping model built from a Poisson arrival process, a fixed-switch revenue function, and a verification lemma. The arrival process already has a published definition; the switching model and the theorem statements here are new drafts. The theorem is established in the 1995 article, while its Lean proof remains to be supplied.

Where the difficulty lies

The immediate-switch comparison G(n,t)G(n,t)G(n,t) has a single sign change, but the optimal decision also depends on revenue already earned and on the value of unsold stock after each possible sale. For n>1n>1n>1, the relevant forcing term is L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t), so the sign of GGG alone does not locate the optimal switching threshold. A direct fixed-time comparison likewise does not establish optimality among stopping times that react to observed sales. These are the main obstacles the formal proof must address.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses natural-number stock, nonnegative real time, positive real prices and rates, and an imported counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. A rate is attached to each price. The history of the first process defines the stopping-time class; the second process enters through its Poisson law after a switch. The supremum ranges over admissible stopping times, and the payoff is bounded and measurable under the stated process law. The definition writes sales before switching as min⁡(n,N1(τ))\min(n,N_1(\tau))min(n,N1​(τ)), equal almost surely to N1(τ)N_1(\tau)N1​(τ) for admissible times. The probability-measure assumption is explicit, though the exponential interarrival law entails it.

Lean assigns a default value to an empty real infimum. The theorem explicitly asserts that each defining zero set for yny_nyn​, xnx_nxn​, and znz_nzn​ is nonempty; it also keeps u>0u>0u>0 in the definition of znz_nzn​, since H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0H(n,0)=0. Continuity of H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅) at zero connects its boundary value to its differential equation. Lemma 1 includes its missing initial, zero-stock, obstacle, and local-Lipschitz assumptions, all required by its printed proof. The paper's word “bounded” in Lemma 2 is retained in the milestone quotation but replaced by the positive lower bound it uses; yny_nyn​ is unbounded as stock grows. These choices are recorded for review in the moderation notes.

The goal derives optimality from the demand and price assumptions. It does not assume the verification conditions, the sign change, or the revenue identity as premises. Contributions to the Poisson tail calculus, stopping-time measurability and boundedness, threshold zero sets, and verification argument are within scope and can be reused in related finite-inventory pricing models.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.
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Convex OptimizationInformation TheoryOptimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

I-Divergence Geometry of Probability Distributions and Minimization Problems 2: Under Moment Constraints the I-Projection Exists at Every Interior Point and Has Exponential-Family DensityResearch Paper

Minimum discrimination information under moment constraints

Given a reference probability distribution RRR and a set E\mathcal EE of probability distributions, the minimum discrimination information problem asks for the member of E\mathcal EE closest to RRR in Kullback–Leibler divergence. It is the basis of Kullback's information-theoretic approach to statistics (Kullback 1959), of the maximum-entropy principle of statistical physics (Jaynes 1957), and of large-deviation theory, where Sanov's theorem identifies the rate function of an empirical distribution with exactly this minimum. The most common constraint sets are defined by prescribed expectations ∫fi dP=ai\int f_i\,dP = a_i∫fi​dP=ai​, and the classical answer is that the minimizer is an exponential family member, with density cexp⁡∑itific\exp\sum_i t_i f_icexp∑i​ti​fi​ with respect to RRR.

That answer was usually justified by Lagrange multipliers, which presuppose that a minimizer exists. Csiszár's paper (Ann. Probab. 1975) treats the problem geometrically, with I-divergence in the role of squared Euclidean distance, and its last result, Theorem 3.3, proves existence and the exponential form at once for unbounded constraint functions, under a hypothesis on the exponential moments of the fif_ifi​.

Timeline:

  • 1959: Kullback formulates the minimum discrimination information theorem: an element of E\mathcal EE of exponential form is the minimizer (a sufficient condition).
  • 1966: Kullback and Khairat (Ann. Math. Statist. 37, 1966) refine the sufficient condition.
  • 1972: Čencov proves existence of exponential-form minimizers under general conditions (Statistical Decision Rules and Optimal Inference, Theorem 23.1).
  • 1975: Csiszár proves Theorem 3.3 by the minimizing-sequence method of his Theorem 2.1; a first version of the paper assumed TR=EkT_R = E^kTR​=Ek, weakened to "TRT_RTR​ open" after Čencov's work.

Setting

All distributions (PD's) live on one measurable space (X,X)(X,\mathcal X)(X,X). The I-divergence of PPP from QQQ is

I(P∥Q)=∫log⁡pQ dP  if P≪Q,I(P∥Q)=+∞  otherwise,I(P\|Q)=\int \log p_Q\,dP\ \text{ if } P\ll Q,\qquad I(P\|Q)=+\infty\ \text{ otherwise},I(P∥Q)=∫logpQ​dP  if P≪Q,I(P∥Q)=+∞  otherwise,

where pQp_QpQ​ is the density of PPP with respect to QQQ; it takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and vanishes only for P=QP=QP=Q. The variation distance is ∣P−Q∣=∫∣pR−qR∣ dR|P-Q|=\int|p_R-q_R|\,dR∣P−Q∣=∫∣pR​−qR​∣dR for any PD RRR dominating both. If E\mathcal EE is a convex set of PD's containing some PPP with I(P∥R)<∞I(P\|R)<\inftyI(P∥R)<∞, a Q∈EQ\in\mathcal EQ∈E with

I(Q∥R)=min⁡P∈EI(P∥R)I(Q\|R)=\min_{P\in\mathcal E} I(P\|R)I(Q∥R)=P∈Emin​I(P∥R)

is the I-projection of RRR on E\mathcal EE.

Fix real-valued measurable functions f1,…,fkf_1,\dots,f_kf1​,…,fk​ on XXX. For a=(a1,…,ak)∈Eka=(a_1,\dots,a_k)\in E^ka=(a1​,…,ak​)∈Ek (Euclidean kkk-space) the moment set E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a) is the set of PD's PPP with ∫fi dP=ai\int f_i\,dP=a_i∫fi​dP=ai​, i=1,…,ki=1,\dots,ki=1,…,k. Further:

  • ARA_RAR​ is the set of a∈Eka\in E^ka∈Ek for which E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a) contains some PPP with I(P∥R)<∞I(P\|R)<\inftyI(P∥R)<∞;
  • TR={t∈Ek: exp⁡∑itifi is R-integrable}T_R=\{t\in E^k:\ \exp\sum_i t_i f_i \text{ is } R\text{-integrable}\}TR​={t∈Ek: exp∑i​ti​fi​ is R-integrable}, (3.16);
  • F(a)=inf⁡P∈E(a)I(P∥R)F(a)=\inf_{P\in\mathcal E(a)} I(P\|R)F(a)=infP∈E(a)​I(P∥R), (3.18), the optimal value as a function of the constraint levels.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

If TRT_RTR​ is open in EkE^kEk, then for every point aaa of the interior of ARA_RAR​ the I-projection QQQ of RRR on E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a) exists and

qR(x)=cexp⁡∑i=1ktifi(x)R-a.e.,q_R(x)=c\exp\sum_{i=1}^k t_i f_i(x)\qquad R\text{-a.e.},qR​(x)=cexpi=1∑k​ti​fi​(x)R-a.e.,

for some constant ccc and some t∈Ekt\in E^kt∈Ek.

Milestones

  1. (2.2), the parallelogram identity: I(Pm∥R)+I(Pn∥R)=2I(Pm+Pn2∥R)+I(Pm∥Pm+Pn2)+I(Pn∥Pm+Pn2)I(P_m\|R)+I(P_n\|R)=2I(\tfrac{P_m+P_n}2\|R)+I(P_m\|\tfrac{P_m+P_n}2)+I(P_n\|\tfrac{P_m+P_n}2)I(Pm​∥R)+I(Pn​∥R)=2I(2Pm​+Pn​​∥R)+I(Pm​∥2Pm​+Pn​​)+I(Pn​∥2Pm​+Pn​​).
  2. (2.4): a minimizing sequence PnP_nPn​ in a convex set converges in variation to a PD Q≪RQ\ll RQ≪R (closedness of the set is not used).
  3. Lemma 3.1: if etfe^{tf}etf is QQQ-integrable for small ∣t∣|t|∣t∣, then I(Pn∥Q)→0I(P_n\|Q)\to0I(Pn​∥Q)→0 implies ∫f dPn→∫f dQ\int f\,dP_n\to\int f\,dQ∫fdPn​→∫fdQ.
  4. (3.18): ARA_RAR​ is convex and FFF is finite and convex on ARA_RAR​.
  5. (3.19): at an interior point aaa of ARA_RAR​ there is ttt with F(b)≥F(a)+∑iti(bi−ai)F(b)\ge F(a)+\sum_i t_i(b_i-a_i)F(b)≥F(a)+∑i​ti​(bi​−ai​) for all b∈ARb\in A_Rb∈AR​.
  6. Remark, p. 158: FFF is differentiable at interior points of ARA_RAR​, and grad⁡F(a)=t\operatorname{grad}F(a)=tgradF(a)=t, the parameter vector of the I-projection.

Significance

Theorem 3.3 gives existence of maximum-entropy (minimum discrimination information) distributions under finitely many moment constraints with unbounded constraint functions, which covers the usual exponential families of statistics (normal, gamma, Poisson moment constraints) where boundedness fails. It identifies the minimizer's form without assuming a minimizer exists, and the Remark identifies the natural parameters as the gradient of the optimal value, the sensitivity interpretation of Lagrange multipliers. These facts underlie the duality between moment and natural parameters of exponential families and the rate functions of Cramér and Sanov type.

The result is proved, in this paper and (under a slightly weaker hypothesis) by Čencov. None of it is formalized: Mathlib has the Kullback–Leibler divergence of measures (InformationTheory.klDiv) and tilted measures, but no I-projection, no existence theorem for constrained minimizers of KL divergence and no exponential-form characterization. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the existence and form theorem, together with the general steps it uses (the parallelogram identity, convergence of minimizing sequences in variation, continuity of exponential-moment expectations under KL convergence).

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the first step: the moment set E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a) is convex but not closed in variation when the fif_ifi​ are unbounded, since ∫fi dP\int f_i\,dP∫fi​dP is not continuous in variation. A minimizing sequence therefore converges in variation to some QQQ (as in Theorem 2.1), but nothing places QQQ in E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a): mass can escape to where ∣fi∣|f_i|∣fi​∣ is large. Ruling this out needs quantitative control of I(Pn∥Q)I(P_n\|Q)I(Pn​∥Q), which in turn requires knowing the form of QQQ before knowing QQQ is feasible; the interplay with the convexity of FFF and the openness of TRT_RTR​ is where the work lies. A Lagrange-multiplier argument is not available: it presupposes a minimizer and differentiability that are part of the conclusion.

Formalization scope

  • Probability distributions are Measure X with IsProbabilityMeasure; the I-divergence is Mathlib's klDiv : ℝ≥0∞, which for probability measures equals (1.1) with the conventions log⁡0=−∞\log 0=-\inftylog0=−∞, log⁡a0=+∞\log\frac a0=+\inftylog0a​=+∞, 0⋅(±∞)=00\cdot(\pm\infty)=00⋅(±∞)=0.
  • The variation distance uses P+QP+QP+Q as dominating measure (the page allows any dominating PD; the value is the same).
  • The I-projection carries I(Q∥R)<∞I(Q\|R)<\inftyI(Q∥R)<∞ explicitly: the page defines it only when E\mathcal EE meets {P:I(P∥R)<∞}\{P: I(P\|R)<\infty\}{P:I(P∥R)<∞}.
  • E(a)\mathcal E(a)E(a) requires PPP-integrability of every fif_ifi​, so the constraint integrals are genuine. EkE^kEk is Fin k → ℝ with its product (Euclidean) topology; "inner point" is the topological interior. k=0k=0k=0 is allowed.
  • FFF is an infimum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (equal to ∞\infty∞ outside ARA_RAR​); statements use its real value only on ARA_RAR​, where it is finite. (3.18) prints I(P∥Q)I(P\|Q)I(P∥Q); the reference measure is RRR, as the definition of ARA_RAR​ and the proof show. (3.16) prints (t1,…,tn)(t_1,\dots,t_n)(t1​,…,tn​) for (t1,…,tk)(t_1,\dots,t_k)(t1​,…,tk​).
  • Densities are Radon–Nikodym derivatives and the form (3.2) is an RRR-almost-everywhere identity with no exceptional set of positive measure.
  • Lemma 3.1 asserts that fff is PnP_nPn​-integrable for large nnn as well as the convergence, so that ∫f dPn\int f\,dP_n∫fdPn​ is not a default value.
  • Trivializing readings are excluded: the goal asserts existence of the I-projection rather than assuming it, TRT_RTR​ is an integrability set (not a set where a junk integral is finite), and the infimum is never a real sInf over a possibly empty set.

A complete development needs: Radon–Nikodym calculus for klDiv (the identity (2.6) I(P∥R)−I(P∥Q)=∫log⁡qR dPI(P\|R)-I(P\|Q)=\int\log q_R\,dPI(P∥R)−I(P∥Q)=∫logqR​dP), Pinsker's inequality (available on the platform as a reference item), lower semicontinuity of klDiv under convergence in variation, completeness of the space of PD's in variation, and supporting hyperplanes of finite-dimensional convex functions. The KL parallelogram identity, Lemma 3.1 and the variation-distance facts are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions on any milestone, and on these infrastructure lemmas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • I. Csiszár, I-divergence geometry of probability distributions and minimization problems, Ann. Probab. 3(1), 146–158, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996454
  • S. Kullback, Information Theory and Statistics, Wiley, 1959.
  • S. Kullback and M. A. Khairat, A note on minimum discrimination information, Ann. Math. Statist. 37, 279–280, 1966.
  • E. T. Jaynes, Information theory and statistical mechanics, Phys. Rev. 106, 620–630, 1957. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.106.620
  • N. N. Čencov, Statistical Decision Rules and Optimal Inference (Russian), Nauka, 1972; English translation, American Mathematical Society, 1982.
  • I. N. Sanov, On the probability of large deviations of random variables (Russian), Mat. Sbornik 42, 11–44, 1957.
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Complexity TheoryProbabilityQuantum Information+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantum Computing I: Relative to a Random Oracle, a Quantum Algorithm Needs Ω(2^{n/2}) Queries to Decide Whether 1ⁿ Has a PreimageResearch Paper

Motivation

Grover's algorithm (Grover 1996) finds a marked item among NNN with O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) queries, a quadratic speed-up over any classical algorithm. Whether quantum computers can do substantially better on search, and so solve NP-type problems by brute force in polynomial time, was settled in the negative by Bennett, Bernstein, Brassard and Vazirani (arXiv:quant-ph/9701001, SIAM J. Comput. 26(5), 1997): relative to a random oracle, a quantum algorithm needs Ω(2n/2)\Omega(2^{n/2})Ω(2n/2) queries to decide whether a string has a preimage. The bound matches Grover's algorithm up to a constant factor, and its hybrid argument is one of the two standard lower-bound methods of the field, together with the polynomial method (Beals et al. 1998) and the adversary method (Ambainis 2000).

Timeline:

  • 1996: Grover's algorithm searches NNN items with O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) queries.
  • 1997: the paper proves BQTime(o(2n/2))⊉NP\mathbf{BQTime}(o(2^{n/2})) \not\supseteq \mathbf{NP}BQTime(o(2n/2))⊇NP relative to a random oracle with probability 1 (Theorem 3.5), and the Ω(2n/3)\Omega(2^{n/3})Ω(2n/3) bound for random permutations (Theorem 3.6).
  • 1998: Boyer, Brassard, Høyer and Tapp give tight bounds for quantum searching.
  • 1999: Zalka shows Grover's algorithm is exactly optimal.

Setting

A TTT-query algorithm acts on vectors φ∈C(X∪{⊥})×R×W\varphi \in \mathbb{C}^{(X \cup \{\bot\}) \times R \times W}φ∈C(X∪{⊥})×R×W, where XXX is the set of query strings, RRR the set of answers (an additive group) and WWW a finite workspace. A basis configuration (x,z,w)(x, z, w)(x,z,w) with x∈Xx \in Xx∈X is querying xxx; (⊥,z,w)(\bot, z, w)(⊥,z,w) is not querying. For an oracle f:X→Rf : X \to Rf:X→R the oracle operator is

Of ∣x,z,w⟩=∣x,z+f(x),w⟩,Of ∣⊥,z,w⟩=∣⊥,z,w⟩.O_f\,|x, z, w\rangle = |x, z + f(x), w\rangle, \qquad O_f\,|\bot, z, w\rangle = |\bot, z, w\rangle .Of​∣x,z,w⟩=∣x,z+f(x),w⟩,Of​∣⊥,z,w⟩=∣⊥,z,w⟩.

The algorithm consists of a unit vector φ0\varphi_0φ0​, unitaries U0,…,UT−1U_0, \dots, U_{T-1}U0​,…,UT−1​ that do not depend on the oracle, and a set of accepting configurations. With oracle AAA its states are φi+1=UiOAφi\varphi_{i+1} = U_i O_A \varphi_iφi+1​=Ui​OA​φi​; the acceptance probability is the squared norm of the accepting part of φT\varphi_TφT​. The query magnitude of yyy in φ\varphiφ is qy(φ)=∑z,w∣φ(y,z,w)∣2q_y(\varphi) = \sum_{z, w} |\varphi(y, z, w)|^2qy​(φ)=∑z,w​∣φ(y,z,w)∣2 (Definition 3.2). The algorithm decides a property if it accepts with probability at least 2/32/32/3 when the property holds and at most 1/31/31/3 when it fails.

In the main theorem X=R={0,1}nX = R = \{0,1\}^nX=R={0,1}n with bitwise addition, and the oracle is a uniformly random function A:{0,1}n→{0,1}nA : \{0,1\}^n \to \{0,1\}^nA:{0,1}n→{0,1}n. The question is whether 1n1^n1n belongs to LA={y:∃x A(x)=y}\mathcal{L}_A = \{y : \exists x\ A(x) = y\}LA​={y:∃x A(x)=y}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.5 (finite form)

∃ c>0 ∃N ∀n≥N ∀M with T≤c 2n/2 queries:Pr⁡A[MA fails to decide ∃x A(x)=1n]≥18.\exists\, c > 0\ \exists N\ \forall n \ge N\ \forall M \text{ with } T \le c\, 2^{n/2} \text{ queries}: \quad \Pr_A\bigl[M^A \text{ fails to decide } \exists x\ A(x) = 1^n\bigr] \ge \tfrac18 .∃c>0 ∃N ∀n≥N ∀M with T≤c2n/2 queries:APr​[MA fails to decide ∃x A(x)=1n]≥81​.

The constant is existential, matching the theorem's hypothesis T(n)=o(2n/2)T(n) = o(2^{n/2})T(n)=o(2n/2); ccc and NNN do not depend on the workspace or the algorithm.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.1: unit vectors at distance ε\varepsilonε have measurement distributions within total variation 4ε4\varepsilon4ε.
  2. Theorem 3.3 (corrected): changing oracle answers on time–string pairs of total query magnitude ≤ε2/T\le \varepsilon^2/T≤ε2/T moves the final state by at most 2ε2\varepsilon2ε.
  3. Corollary 3.4 (corrected): outside a set of at most 4T2/ε24T^2/\varepsilon^24T2/ε2 strings, changing the oracle at one string moves the final state by at most ε\varepsilonε.
  4. Pr⁡[1n has no preimage]=((2n−1)/2n)2n≥1/4\Pr[1^n \text{ has no preimage}] = ((2^n-1)/2^n)^{2^n} \ge 1/4Pr[1n has no preimage]=((2n−1)/2n)2n≥1/4.
  5. Pr⁡[1n has a unique preimage]=((2n−1)/2n)2n−1≥1/e\Pr[1^n \text{ has a unique preimage}] = ((2^n-1)/2^n)^{2^n-1} \ge 1/ePr[1n has a unique preimage]=((2n−1)/2n)2n−1≥1/e.
  6. Final states within 1/131/131/13 for AAA and AyA_yAy​ force failure on one of them.
  7. The double counting: failing oracles with a unique preimage are at least half the successful oracles with none.

Significance

The theorem shows that the quadratic speed-up of Grover's algorithm cannot be improved for unstructured search, and that relative to a random oracle NP⊈BQP\mathbf{NP} \not\subseteq \mathbf{BQP}NP⊆BQP; any quantum algorithm for NP-complete problems must use the structure of the problem. Theorem 3.3 and Corollary 3.4 isolate the constraint unitary evolution places on "quantum parallelism" and are reused across quantum lower bounds, including the permutation bound of the companion mission (Theorem 3.6).

The results are proved on paper and, to our knowledge, have no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal query model with an XOR oracle, a formal hybrid argument, and the lower bound with its constants checked. Two printed bounds are wrong by constant factors (below); the formal statements carry the corrected constants, and a formal proof settles them. Grover's matching upper bound is on the platform as Grover.search_succeeds_bounded, for a phase oracle and one fixed algorithm.

Difficulty

The obvious argument — each query reveals one bit about where the preimage is, so Ω(2n)\Omega(2^n)Ω(2n) queries are needed — fails for quantum algorithms, which query all strings in superposition at once. The difficulty is to bound how much a superposition of queries can learn, which requires controlling the accumulated effect of small changes across TTT unitary steps, and then converting a bound on states into a statement about the probability of failure over random oracles, where the set of sensitive strings depends on the oracle.

Formalization scope

The paper's oracle quantum Turing machines are replaced by the query model above, the model its proofs use. Every oracle QTM running TTT steps is a TTT-query algorithm: oracle answers on lengths other than nnn are fixed and absorbed into the unitaries, as the proof fixes them, and the input 1n1^n1n is absorbed into φ0\varphi_0φ0​. Queries return the full value A(x)∈{0,1}nA(x) \in \{0,1\}^nA(x)∈{0,1}n; one Boolean query is two full-value queries, so the goal implies the Boolean-oracle bound with ccc halved. Strings are Fin n → ZMod 2; states are EuclideanSpace ℂ (Option X × R × W); probabilities over oracles are counting fractions over all (2n)2n(2^n)^{2^n}(2n)2n functions; total variation distance is the paper's ∑x∣D(x)−D′(x)∣\sum_x |\mathcal D(x) - \mathcal D'(x)|∑x​∣D(x)−D′(x)∣ without the factor 1/21/21/2.

Corrections: Theorem 3.3 is printed with conclusion ≤ε\le \varepsilon≤ε, which fails (one query string, T=1T = 1T=1, distance 222 at ε=1\varepsilon = 1ε=1; machine-checked); the true bound is 2ε2\varepsilon2ε. Corollary 3.4 is printed with ∣S∣≤2T2/ε2|S| \le 2T^2/\varepsilon^2∣S∣≤2T2/ε2, which fails (16 strings, T=1T = 1T=1, ε=0.45\varepsilon = 0.45ε=0.45); the true bound is 4T2/ε24T^2/\varepsilon^24T2/ε2. The printed constant T(n)≤2n/2/20T(n) \le 2^{n/2}/20T(n)≤2n/2/20 in the proof of Theorem 3.5 does not support the step 2n−card(S)≥2n−12^n - \mathrm{card}(S) \ge 2^{n-1}2n−card(S)≥2n−1 even with the paper's own count; the goal states an existential constant, and c=1/37c = 1/37c=1/37 works with the corrected Corollary 3.4. The closing probability-111 argument over countably many machines and the class statement about BQTime\mathbf{BQTime}BQTime are not formalized.

A formalization in which algorithms query at every step on every branch (no ⊥\bot⊥ sector), only one side of the bounded-error condition is tested, or the probability is taken over a set of oracles that excludes the hard instances, proves a weaker theorem and is ruled out by these definitions.

Needed infrastructure: norms of finite-dimensional complex vectors, unitaries as linear isometry equivalences, finite counting of functions. The query model and the hybrid argument are reusable for any quantum query lower bound.

Selected references

  • C. H. Bennett, E. Bernstein, G. Brassard, U. Vazirani, Strengths and weaknesses of quantum computing, SIAM J. Comput. 26(5):1510–1523, 1997. arXiv:quant-ph/9701001
  • L. K. Grover, A fast quantum mechanical algorithm for database search, STOC 1996. arXiv:quant-ph/9605043
  • M. Boyer, G. Brassard, P. Høyer, A. Tapp, Tight bounds on quantum searching, Fortschr. Phys. 46, 1998. arXiv:quant-ph/9605034
  • C. Zalka, Grover's quantum searching algorithm is optimal, Phys. Rev. A 60, 1999. arXiv:quant-ph/9711070
  • R. Beals, H. Buhrman, R. Cleve, M. Mosca, R. de Wolf, Quantum lower bounds by polynomials, J. ACM 48, 2001. arXiv:quant-ph/9802049
  • A. Ambainis, Quantum lower bounds by quantum arguments, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 64, 2002. arXiv:quant-ph/0002066
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Computational GeometryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Concentration of Measure and Isoperimetric Inequalities in Product Spaces XII: The Euclidean Traveling Salesman Problem — P(|L_N − M| ≥ t) ≤ K e^{−t²/K} for N Uniform Points in the SquareTextbook

Motivation

The Euclidean traveling salesman problem asks for the shortest closed route through a finite set of points in the plane. Even when the points are placed independently and uniformly in a square, finding an individual shortest route is computationally difficult. A separate probabilistic question is whether the optimal length varies much from one random sample to another. In Chapter 11 of Talagrand's 1995 paper, this question motivates a concentration theorem for the tour length and for other geometric functionals with the same local regularity property.

The result is useful because a bound on fluctuations can be applied without computing the distribution of the optimal tour length. It separates the typical size of the length, which may need other geometric estimates, from the chance of a substantial deviation. The paper develops a more general concentration method for product spaces; the geometric chapter shows how its estimates can control an optimization problem whose response to changing one sample point depends strongly on the local configuration.

Setting

Let Q=[0,1]2Q=[0,1]^2Q=[0,1]2, and let X1,…,XNX_1,\ldots,X_NX1​,…,XN​ be independent points uniformly distributed in QQQ, with N≥1N\ge1N≥1. A configuration is the finite set F={X1,…,XN}F=\{X_1,\ldots,X_N\}F={X1​,…,XN​}; repeated sample locations are represented once in FFF. For any finite F⊆QF\subseteq QF⊆Q, write T(F)T(F)T(F) for the length of a shortest closed tour visiting every point of FFF. The tour length of the random sample is TN=T(F)T_N=T(F)TN​=T(F). The empty set and a singleton have tour length zero.

The main theorem concerns a functional LLL on all finite subsets of QQQ. A level k≥1k\ge1k≥1 dyadic square CCC has side 2−k2^{-k}2−k. Say that LLL has regularity constant K0>0K_0>0K0​>0 when, for every finite FFF and every finite G⊆CG\subseteq CG⊆C, if a point of FFF lies within Euclidean distance 2−k+22^{-k+2}2−k+2 of CCC, then

L(F)≤L(F∪G)≤L(F)+K0,2−k∣G∣.L(F)\le L(F\cup G)\le L(F)+K_0,2^{-k}\sqrt{|G|}.L(F)≤L(F∪G)≤L(F)+K0​,2−k∣G∣​.

The first inequality is monotonicity under adding points. The second limits the added cost when the new points lie in a small square near an existing point. Lemma 11.2.1 says that the shortest tour functional TTT has this property with a universal constant. In particular, the functional in the main theorem is not an arbitrary real function on samples: it must obey this condition for every admissible square and pair of finite sets.

A median MMM of L(F)L(F)L(F) is any real number for which both P(L(F)≤M)P(L(F)\le M)P(L(F)≤M) and P(L(F)≥M)P(L(F)\ge M)P(L(F)≥M) are at least one half. The theorem applies to every median. This convention avoids selecting one median when the distribution has more than one.

For the intermediate geometric estimates, k0k_0k0​ is the largest integer with 22k0≤N2^{2k_0}\le N22k0​≤N. Given a deviation parameter ttt, k1k_1k1​ is the integer selected by the criterion (11.1.9) after the paper sets the auxiliary Poisson intensity to N/8N/8N/8. The number mkm_kmk​ counts level kkk squares that contain at most N2−2k−6N2^{-2k-6}N2−2k−6 distinct sample points. An isolation weight α(x)\alpha(x)α(x) records the largest scale between k1k_1k1​ and k0k_0k0​ at which the square containing xxx contains at most N2−2k−7N2^{-2k-7}N2−2k−7 sample points, and equals 2−k02^{-k_0}2−k0​ if no such scale exists.

Formalization targets

Gaussian concentration for regular geometric functionals

For each fixed K0>0K_0>0K0​>0, there is a constant K>0K>0K>0, independent of NNN and LLL, such that every measurable LLL with the regularity property above satisfies, for all t≥0t\ge0t≥0,

P(∣L(F)−M∣≥t)≤Kexp⁡(−t2/K).P\bigl(|L(F)-M|\ge t\bigr)\le K\exp(-t^2/K).P(∣L(F)−M∣≥t)≤Kexp(−t2/K).

This is Theorem 11.2.2, the goal. Its constant may depend on the fixed regularity constant K0K_0K0​. Lemma 11.2.1 makes the tour length a direct instance. The milestone list also includes the quantitative sparse-square estimate of Proposition 11.1.4, the isolation-weight bound of Proposition 11.2.3, and the deterministic insertion estimate of Proposition 11.2.5. These retain the paper's specified thresholds and the dependency of their constants.

Significance

For TNT_NTN​, the result supplies a tail bound whose scale does not grow with the number of sample points. It says that the shortest tour length lies near a median with a Gaussian-form upper bound on the probability of a deviation. It does not identify the median or give an algorithm for finding the optimal tour. The abstract form also covers other finite-set functionals once their local regularity condition is established.

The paper proves these claims in ordinary mathematics. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the stated concentration, geometric occupancy, and tour-insertion results. The reusable outputs include a finite-set model of Euclidean tours and a precise interface for local regularity; the dyadic occupancy and isolation-weight definitions can support later sections on other geometric structures. No machine-checked proof of these specific chapter results is claimed here.

Difficulty

A naive bounded-differences estimate treats the effect of changing a sample point as if a single fixed worst-case insertion cost applied everywhere. That loses the paper's uniform fluctuation scale: a point can be unusually isolated, and its insertion cost can be much larger than the cost near a typical dense cluster. The central problem is to keep track of those irregular locations while retaining a bound uniform in NNN. The chapter's dyadic-square counts and isolation weights make this difficulty explicit in the statements.

Formalization scope

Points are pairs of real coordinates constrained to [0,1][0,1][0,1], represented as functions on Fin 2. Their distance is the Euclidean ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2 distance, defined explicitly; the default norm on a Lean function space would give a different metric. The random sample is a product of coordinatewise uniform probability measures. FFF is the set of distinct sampled locations, so ties have a defined value. Tour length is the minimum cyclic tour cost over the finite set, using the published generic metric-TSP tour model as its base.

Dyadic squares are closed in the local regularity condition. For the single square assigned to a point in the definition of α\alphaα, the implementation uses half-open cells, with the right endpoint 111 assigned to the final cell. This resolves only grid-line ties, which have probability zero under the stated sample law. Counts use distinct locations, as does the paper's set FFF. All probability inequalities are compared in the extended nonnegative reals. The event bound is written with ENNReal.ofReal; a negative formal lower bound represents the paper's trivial probability lower bound. The main theorem explicitly assumes measurability of the sample functional, following the paper's convention that all relevant functions are measurable. Theorems in Section 11.1 retain t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and t≤N/Kt\le\sqrt N/Kt≤N​/K; the main theorem covers every t≥0t\ge0t≥0.

The formalization must not replace the square's uniform law by an arbitrary distribution, use a supremum-norm tour, or place the existential constant after NNN or LLL. Contributions toward the goal may develop measure-theoretic facts about the product law, finite Euclidean tours, dyadic occupancy bounds, or the insertion estimate. Those interfaces have uses beyond this chapter.

Selected references

  • Michel Talagrand, Concentration of measure and isoperimetric inequalities in product spaces, Publications Mathématiques de l'IHÉS 81 (1995), 73–205. DOI: 10.1007/BF02699376.
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Aspects of the Sequential Design of Experiments II: Staying on Heads and Switching on Tails Loses at Most 3 − 2√2 per Toss in the Long RunResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1952 Herbert Robbins asked how a statistician should draw a sample sequentially from two populations when the goal is the largest possible expected total, not a test or an estimate after the fact (Robbins 1952). This is the problem now called the two-armed bandit, and Robbins' paper is the usual starting point of the multi-armed bandit literature that underlies clinical-trial allocation, adaptive experimentation and online recommendation (Lattimore and Szepesvári 2020).

Robbins illustrated the problem with two coins. His first concrete rule, "stay on heads, switch on tails" (later known as win-stay, lose-shift or play the winner), uses only the outcome of the last toss, yet its long-run loss relative to an observer who knows the better coin is at most 3−23/2≈0.1723-2^{3/2}\approx 0.1723−23/2≈0.172 per toss, against 1/21/21/2 for a rule that ignores the outcomes. The same rule was studied again in clinical-trial design as "play the winner" (Zelen 1969).

Timeline. 1952: Robbins computes the operating characteristics of the stay-or-switch rule R1R_1R1​ and of the outcome-blind rule R0R_0R0​ for two coins, and shows that a greedy rule with sparse forced sampling attains max⁡(α,β)\max(\alpha,\beta)max(α,β) for arbitrary populations with finite means (Section 2). 1969: Zelen proposes the play-the-winner rule for clinical trials. 1985: Lai and Robbins give the logarithmic lower bound on regret and rules that attain it (Lai and Robbins 1985).

Setting

Two coins AAA and BBB have unknown head probabilities α\alphaα and β\betaβ, with 0≤α,β≤10\le\alpha,\beta\le10≤α,β≤1. A head pays \1,atailpaysnothing.If, a tail pays nothing. If ,atailpaysnothing.Ifx_i\in{0,1}isthepayoffoftheis the payoff of theisthepayoffofthei−thtoss,-th toss, −thtoss,S_n=x_1+\dots+x_nisthetotalreceivedafteris the total received afteristhetotalreceivedafterntosses.Intheformaldevelopmentthepairofcoinsisa∗∗two−armedstochasticbandit∗∗:armtosses. In the formal development the pair of coins is a **two-armed stochastic bandit**: armtosses.Intheformaldevelopmentthepairofcoinsisa∗∗two−armedstochasticbandit∗∗:arm0iscoinis coiniscoinA,withpayofflaw, with payoff law ,withpayofflaw(1-\alpha)\delta_0+\alpha\delta_1,andarm, and arm ,andarm1iscoinis coiniscoinB,withpayofflaw, with payoff law ,withpayofflaw(1-\beta)\delta_0+\beta\delta_1$.

A sampling rule chooses the coin for each toss from the outcomes of the earlier tosses. Two rules are studied.

  • Rule R1R_1R1​. For the first toss choose AAA or BBB at random. Then, for i=1,2,…i=1,2,\dotsi=1,2,…, if the iii-th toss results in heads, use the same coin for the (i+1)(i+1)(i+1)-th toss; if it results in tails, switch to the other coin.
  • Rule R0R_0R0​. Choose one of the two coins at random and then use it for every toss.

Write pip_ipi​ for the probability of heads on the iii-th toss under the rule in use, and E(Sn/n)\mathrm E(S_n/n)E(Sn​/n) for the expected average payoff of the first nnn tosses. The paper's two parameters are

γ=α+β2,δ=∣α−β∣2,\gamma=\frac{\alpha+\beta}{2},\qquad \delta=\frac{|\alpha-\beta|}{2},γ=2α+β​,δ=2∣α−β∣​,

so that max⁡(α,β)=γ+δ\max(\alpha,\beta)=\gamma+\deltamax(α,β)=γ+δ is the expected payoff per toss of an observer who knows the better coin. Following the paper, α\alphaα and β\betaβ are assumed not both 000 and not both 111; then ∣α+β−1∣<1|\alpha+\beta-1|<1∣α+β−1∣<1.

Formalization targets

Goal: the asymptotic loss of R1R_1R1​ and its maximum

Under R1R_1R1​,

lim⁡n→∞E ⁣(Snn)=γ+δ21−γ,L(A,B,R1)=lim⁡n→∞[max⁡(α,β)−E ⁣(Snn)]=δ[1−δ1−γ],\lim_{n\to\infty}\mathrm E\!\left(\frac{S_n}{n}\right)=\gamma+\frac{\delta^2}{1-\gamma}, \qquad L(A,B,R_1)=\lim_{n\to\infty}\left[\max(\alpha,\beta)-\mathrm E\!\left(\frac{S_n}{n}\right)\right]=\delta\left[1-\frac{\delta}{1-\gamma}\right],n→∞lim​E(nSn​​)=γ+1−γδ2​,L(A,B,R1​)=n→∞lim​[max(α,β)−E(nSn​​)]=δ[1−1−γδ​],

and for every admissible pair of coins

0≤L(A,B,R1)≤M1=3−23/2,0\le L(A,B,R_1)\le M_1=3-2^{3/2},0≤L(A,B,R1​)≤M1​=3−23/2,

with equality at α=0, β=2−21/2\alpha=0,\ \beta=2-2^{1/2}α=0, β=2−21/2 and at α=2−21/2, β=0\alpha=2-2^{1/2},\ \beta=0α=2−21/2, β=0 (Eqs. (6), (8) and the text after (8), p. 531).

Milestones, in the order of the argument

  1. Eq. (2): pi+1=(α+β−1)pi+(α+β−2αβ)p_{i+1}=(\alpha+\beta-1)p_i+(\alpha+\beta-2\alpha\beta)pi+1​=(α+β−1)pi​+(α+β−2αβ) for i≥1i\ge1i≥1.
  2. Eq. (3): the closed form pi=(α+β−1)i−1[p1−c]+cp_i=(\alpha+\beta-1)^{i-1}\bigl[p_1-c\bigr]+cpi​=(α+β−1)i−1[p1​−c]+c with c=(α+β−2αβ)/(2−(α+β))c=(\alpha+\beta-2\alpha\beta)/(2-(\alpha+\beta))c=(α+β−2αβ)/(2−(α+β)).
  3. Eqs. (4)–(5): lim⁡ipi=c=γ+δ2/(1−γ)\lim_i p_i=c=\gamma+\delta^2/(1-\gamma)limi​pi​=c=γ+δ2/(1−γ).
  4. Eq. (6): both E(Sn/n)\mathrm E(S_n/n)E(Sn​/n) and (p1+⋯+pn)/n(p_1+\dots+p_n)/n(p1​+⋯+pn​)/n have the stated limit.
  5. Eqs. (7)–(8) and M1M_1M1​: max⁡(α,β)=γ+δ\max(\alpha,\beta)=\gamma+\deltamax(α,β)=γ+δ and 0≤δ[1−δ/(1−γ)]≤3−23/20\le\delta[1-\delta/(1-\gamma)]\le 3-2^{3/2}0≤δ[1−δ/(1−γ)]≤3−23/2, with the two maximizers.
  6. Rule R0R_0R0​: L(A,B,R0)=δL(A,B,R_0)=\deltaL(A,B,R0​)=δ, whose maximum over the admissible pairs is M0=1/2M_0=1/2M0​=1/2, at (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) and (1,0)(1,0)(1,0).

Significance

The result. The goal quantifies how much an extremely simple adaptive rule recovers. A rule blind to outcomes loses up to half a dollar per toss; one bit of memory cuts the worst case to about 0.1720.1720.172. Robbins used this comparison to argue that the sequential design problem has nontrivial, computable answers, and to motivate the forced-sampling rule Rˉ\bar RRˉ of the same section, whose loss tends to 000. The closed forms (3)–(6) are the exact operating characteristics of the four-state Markov chain (coin,outcome)(\text{coin},\text{outcome})(coin,outcome) that R1R_1R1​ generates.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and elementary on paper, but none of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a verified chain from the canonical bandit measure to an explicit long-run payoff: the head probability of a fixed toss is computed from the law of the whole trajectory, the recursion is derived from the rule's kernels, and the Cesàro limit closes the argument. The same pattern applies to any finite-memory bandit rule, and the coin bandit and the two rules are reusable test cases for the platform's bandit library. No platform theorem states R1R_1R1​, its recursion or its loss; other two-state models on the platform (a Markov-renewal gain rate, an MDP gadget) are different objects.

Difficulty

The recursion (2) is a statement about the trajectory law, not about a Markov chain given in advance: the chain (coini,xi)(\text{coin}_i,x_i)(coini​,xi​) has to be extracted from the Ionescu–Tulcea construction of the bandit measure, where the coin of toss i+1i+1i+1 is a deterministic function of toss iii and the payoff is drawn from the chosen coin's law. The head probability alone is not a Markov chain: pi+1p_{i+1}pi+1​ depends on the joint law of coin and outcome at toss iii, so a naive one-step argument on pip_ipi​ does not apply, and the affine form of (2) is a property of this particular rule. The maximization in (8) is over a two-dimensional region whose maximizers lie on the boundary α=0\alpha=0α=0 or β=0\beta=0β=0, and the excluded corners are exactly where the formula δ/(1−γ)\delta/(1-\gamma)δ/(1−γ) breaks down.

Formalization scope

The bandit is the published BanditAlgorithm.StochasticBandit 2; the rules are policies of the published type BanditPolicy 2, and probabilities and expectations are taken under the published infinite-horizon measure banditTrajMeasure, whose coordinate ttt is toss t+1t+1t+1. Head probabilities are elements of unitInterval. The conventions committed to are:

  • "At random" for the first coin of R1R_1R1​ and R0R_0R0​ is the fair choice, probability 1/21/21/2 each.
  • Heads is the payoff value 111; pip_ipi​ is defined for i≥1i\ge1i≥1 and every statement quantifies over i≥1i\ge1i≥1 or n≥1n\ge1n≥1.
  • "Not both 000 or both 111" is the hypothesis ¬(α=0∧β=0)∧¬(α=1∧β=1)\neg(\alpha=0\wedge\beta=0)\wedge\neg(\alpha=1\wedge\beta=1)¬(α=0∧β=0)∧¬(α=1∧β=1), never 0<α0<\alpha0<α or α<1\alpha<1α<1, which would remove the maximizer α=0\alpha=0α=0. Robbins states it immediately before Eq. (2), and the Lean carries it through the probability and loss results.
  • The paper's "lim⁡E(Sn/n)=lim⁡(p1+⋯+pn)/n\lim E(S_n/n)=\lim (p_1+\dots+p_n)/nlimE(Sn​/n)=lim(p1​+⋯+pn​)/n" is stated as convergence of both sequences to the same value.
  • "L(A,B,R1)L(A,B,R_1)L(A,B,R1​) has its maximum value M1M_1M1​ when …" is read as: L≤M1L\le M_1L≤M1​ for every admissible (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β), and L=M1L=M_1L=M1​ at both named points ("or vice versa").
  • 23/22^{3/2}23/2 is written 222\sqrt222​. The numerical asides (≈.172\approx .172≈.172, ≈.586\approx .586≈.586, "17.2 cents") are not formalized, nor is the "tossing the two coins alternately" variant of R0R_0R0​.

The asymptotic loss is stated as the limit of max⁡(α,β)−E(Sn/n)\max(\alpha,\beta)-\mathrm E(S_n/n)max(α,β)−E(Sn​/n); defining LLL by its closed form would make the goal a tautology. Likewise, the head probabilities are computed from the law of the rule on the coins: positing a sequence that satisfies (2) would drop the probabilistic content.

A complete development needs: the one-dimensional marginals of banditTrajMeasure (the law of coordinate t+1t+1t+1 given the prefix), the joint law of (coin, payoff) at each toss, linearity of expectation for bounded payoffs, a Cesàro-mean lemma, and a short two-variable optimization. The trajectory-marginal lemmas are reusable for every bandit mission on the platform; contributions that prove them in general are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Robbins, Some aspects of the sequential design of experiments, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 58(5) (1952), 527–535. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1952-09620-8
  • M. Zelen, Play the winner rule and the controlled clinical trial, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 64 (1969), 131–146. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10500959
  • T. L. Lai and H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Adv. Appl. Math. 6 (1985), 4–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • T. Lattimore and C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 5: KNAPSACK Reduces to Two-Machine Flow Shop Makespan with a Release Date or Tree Precedence and to Two- and Three-Machine Job Shop MakespanResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1975 P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra and A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan classified a large part of deterministic machine scheduling by computational complexity, using the then new theory of NP-completeness of Cook and Karp. Their report, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, Amsterdam, 1975; published in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977), gives for many problems either a polynomial algorithm or a polynomial reduction from a known NP-complete problem. It drew the boundary between easy and hard scheduling problems that later surveys and the standard three-field classification build on.

This mission covers four reductions of the report's Theorem 4 that concern shops with several machines. A flow shop processes every job on machines M1,…,MmM_1, \dots, M_mM1​,…,Mm​ in this order; a job shop lets each job follow its own route. For two machines and no further constraints, the flow shop is solved by Johnson's rule (Johnson, 1954) and the job shop with at most two operations per job by Jackson's extension of it (1956). The four reductions show that these positive results stop exactly where one more feature is added: one job with a nonzero release date, tree-shaped precedence constraints, a third operation per job, or a third machine.

Setting

A general shop instance has jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and machines M1,…,MmM_1,\dots,M_mM1​,…,Mm​. Job JjJ_jJj​ consists of mjm_jmj​ operations; its rrr-th operation runs on machine μjr\mu_{jr}μjr​ for pjr∈Np_{jr}\in\mathbb Npjr​∈N time units, and the tuple μj\mu_jμj​ is the job's machine order (a machine may occur more than once). Each job has a release date rjr_jrj​, and some pairs of jobs carry a precedence constraint Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​.

A schedule gives every operation a start time. It is feasible if no operation of JjJ_jJj​ starts before rjr_jrj​; the operations of each job run in the order μj\mu_jμj​, each after the previous one completes; two operations on the same machine never overlap; and Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​ implies Cj≤BkC_j\le B_kCj​≤Bk​, where CjC_jCj​ is the completion time of JjJ_jJj​ and BkB_kBk​ the starting time of JkJ_kJk​. The makespan is Cmax⁡=max⁡jCjC_{\max}=\max_j C_jCmax​=maxj​Cj​.

In the report's notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣Cmax⁡n|m|\ell,\lambda|C_{\max}n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣Cmax​, ℓ=F\ell=Fℓ=F means a flow shop and ℓ=G\ell=Gℓ=G a job shop; λ\lambdaλ may contain rn≥0r_n\ge 0rn​≥0 (only the last job has a release date), tree (the precedence graph is a branching: no directed cycle, and either every indegree or every outdegree is at most one) and mj≤m∗m_j\le m_*mj​≤m∗​ (at most m∗m_*m∗​ operations per job). The recognition version of a problem asks, for an instance and a number yyy, whether a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y exists.

KNAPSACK asks, for positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb, whether some S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} has ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b. A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP (P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P) if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(g)–(j)

KNAPSACK ∝ n∣2∣F,rn≥0∣Cmax⁡,n∣2∣F,tree∣Cmax⁡,n∣2∣G,mj≤3∣Cmax⁡,n∣3∣G,mj≤2∣Cmax⁡.\mathrm{KNAPSACK}\ \propto\ n|2|F,r_n{\ge}0|C_{\max},\quad n|2|F,\mathit{tree}|C_{\max},\quad n|2|G,m_j{\le}3|C_{\max},\quad n|3|G,m_j{\le}2|C_{\max}.KNAPSACK ∝ n∣2∣F,rn​≥0∣Cmax​,n∣2∣F,tree∣Cmax​,n∣2∣G,mj​≤3∣Cmax​,n∣3∣G,mj​≤2∣Cmax​.

Each part is a polynomial-time many-one reduction between languages of binary strings. The other six parts of Theorem 4 (single-machine problems) belong to other missions of this series.

Milestones: the four equivalences

For positive a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b with 0<b<A=∑j∈Taj0<b<A=\sum_{j\in T}a_j0<b<A=∑j∈T​aj​, and for each of the paper's four constructions with its threshold yyy,

∃ S⊆T: ∑j∈Saj=b  ⟺  the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤y,\exists\,S\subseteq T:\ \sum_{j\in S}a_j=b\iff\text{the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with } C_{\max}\le y,∃S⊆T: j∈S∑​aj​=b⟺the constructed instance has a feasible schedule with Cmax​≤y,

with y=A+1y=A+1y=A+1 for (i), y=2Ay=2Ay=2A for (j), y=t(A+1)y=t(A+1)y=t(A+1) for (g) and y=t(A+1)+1y=t(A+1)+1y=t(A+1)+1 for (h). The milestones are stated directly about the printed constructions, in the order (i), (j), (g), (h) of the report.

Significance

With the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK (Karp, 1972), the goal makes the four problems NP-complete. As the report notes, (i) and (j) together with the elementary reductions of its Theorem 1 make the general job shop n∣m∣G∣Cmax⁡n|m|G|C_{\max}n∣m∣G∣Cmax​ NP-complete for every fixed m≥2m\ge 2m≥2. Parts (g) and (h) show that Johnson's two-machine algorithm admits neither release dates nor precedence constraints in general. Because KNAPSACK can be solved in pseudo-polynomial time, these results establish NP-hardness in the ordinary sense only; strong NP-hardness of some of these problems came later (Garey, Johnson and Sethi, 1976, for the three-machine flow shop).

The results are proved in the report; no machine-checked proof of any of them is known to exist. A formalization adds explicit constructions and complete equivalence proofs where the report is brief: in (h) it proves one inequality and states that the rest "is analogous to that of reduction (g)", and the forward directions are given by figures. It also produces a reusable formal model of general shops with integral start times, release dates, precedence and repeated machines.

Difficulty

Polynomial-time computability of the constructions is routine in principle but laborious in Cook's Turing-machine model, which is the setting of the goal: binary arithmetic for AAA, tajt a_jtaj​ and t(A−b)t(A-b)t(A−b), and parsing of the KNAPSACK code.

The mathematical difficulty is the reverse direction of each equivalence. The report's arguments are phrased in terms of "a processing order on M1M_1M1​" and treat the jobs before and after an extra job as two blocks. A formal proof must derive such an order from arbitrary start times and must handle every interleaving, including idle time and the case where the extra job's operations do not fit the printed pattern. In (j) the printed bound for the case c<0c<0c<0 contains a minimum of two quantities whose justification is left to the reader. In (h) the printed case uses taj≥tt a_j\ge ttaj​≥t, so the positivity of the data matters, and the remaining cases are only said to be analogous to (g).

Formalization scope

Jobs are Fin n and machines Fin m, both 0-based. A job's operations form a list of (machine, processing time) pairs, so machine orders may repeat machines, as μn=(M2,M1,M2)\mu_n=(M_2,M_1,M_2)μn​=(M2​,M1​,M2​) in (i) does. Start times are natural numbers. The report computes schedules from processing orders on integer data, the makespan is a regular criterion, and release dates and precedence survive shifting operations left, so integral start times lose no value. Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y is stated as Cj≤yC_j\le yCj​≤y for every jjj; no maximum over an empty set is formed. Precedence Jj<JkJ_j<J_kJj​<Jk​ is between jobs: every operation of JkJ_kJk​ starts no earlier than CjC_jCj​. A branching is an acyclic precedence graph in which every indegree is at most one or every outdegree is at most one; the report's "either … or" is read for the whole graph. Job-shop classes require at least one operation per job. A flow-shop job has exactly the operations (M1,M2)(M_1,M_2)(M1​,M2​), with times allowed to be zero.

The following readings of the report are made explicit. "Reducible" is Karp reducibility, CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definitions CookPvsNP_defs. The languages are over the four-letter alphabet with binary numbers of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding. Its subsetSumLang allows zero sizes, while the report's KNAPSACK is over positive integers, so KNAPSACK is defined locally with positivity in the language. "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" becomes a hypothesis of every equivalence; the goal's reduction must still handle the other inputs. The printed "value Cmax⁡=yC_{\max}=yCmax​=y" of the forward directions is read as "≤y\le y≤y", as Section 2 defines the recognition version. The remark that (h) is analogous to (g) becomes the full equivalence for (h). An instance outside the problem's class is not in its language. NP-membership is not part of the goal.

The formal two-stage flow-shop models of Johnson's paper (JohnsonFlowShop.TwoStage.IsFeasible) and the job-shop model of Jansen, Solis-Oba and Sviridenko (JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance) use real start times and have neither release dates nor precedence. They were consulted, but the model here is local.

Ruled out as trivializing: a goal without the polynomial-time condition (the bare equivalence of yes-instances), a target language that accepts instances outside the class, and equivalences about some instance rather than the printed construction.

Contributions are welcome on any milestone, on a general lemma that turns a feasible schedule into a processing order per machine, and on polynomial-time computability of list arithmetic in the Turing-machine model, which every reduction of this series needs.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. M. Johnson, Optimal two- and three-stage production schedules with setup times included, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 1 (1954) 61–68. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010110
  • J. R. Jackson, An extension of Johnson's results on job lot scheduling, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3 (1956) 201–203. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030307
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, R. Sethi, The complexity of flowshop and jobshop scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1 (1976) 117–129. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • S. A. Cook, The P versus NP problem, Clay Mathematics Institute. https://www.claymath.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pvsnp.pdf
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OptimizationProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

A Stochastic Approximation Method: If M Is Nondecreasing, M(θ) = α and M′(θ) > 0, the Robbins–Monro Iterates with Steps of Type 1/n Converge to θ in Mean SquareResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in statistics and engineering ask for the level θ\thetaθ at which an unknown function takes a prescribed value α\alphaα: the dose at which a fraction α\alphaα of subjects respond, the setting at which a noisy device reaches a target output, the α\alphaα-quantile of a distribution that can only be probed by yes/no experiments. When the function can only be observed through noisy measurements, classical root-finding does not apply. Robbins and Monro (Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951) 400–407) proposed a recursive procedure that uses one noisy observation per step and proved that it converges in mean square. The paper started the field of stochastic approximation, which today underlies stochastic gradient descent, temporal-difference learning and adaptive control.

Timeline. Robbins and Monro (1951) prove mean-square convergence for bounded responses under conditions (5′) or (33)–(35). Kiefer and Wolfowitz (1952) adapt the scheme to finding a maximum. Blum (1954) proves almost-sure convergence under weaker moment conditions. Dvoretzky (1956) gives a general convergence theorem covering both schemes. Later work (Robbins and Siegmund, 1971; Ljung, 1977; Kushner and Clark, 1978; Benaïm, 1999) develops the supermartingale and ODE methods.

Setting

To each real level xxx corresponds a random response Y(x)Y(x)Y(x) with distribution function H(y∣x)H(y \mid x)H(y∣x), and the regression function is

M(x)=∫−∞∞y dH(y∣x).M(x) = \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} y \, dH(y \mid x).M(x)=∫−∞∞​ydH(y∣x).

The responses are bounded: there is C>0C > 0C>0 with Pr⁡[∣Y(x)∣≤C]=1\Pr[|Y(x)| \le C] = 1Pr[∣Y(x)∣≤C]=1 for all xxx (condition (4)). Fix constants α,θ\alpha, \thetaα,θ and positive step sizes ana_nan​. The Robbins–Monro process starts at an arbitrary constant x1x_1x1​ and sets

xn+1−xn=an(α−yn),Pr⁡[yn≤y∣xn]=H(y∣xn),x_{n+1} - x_n = a_n(\alpha - y_n), \qquad \Pr[y_n \le y \mid x_n] = H(y \mid x_n),xn+1​−xn​=an​(α−yn​),Pr[yn​≤y∣xn​]=H(y∣xn​),

so yny_nyn​ is a fresh response observed at the current level xnx_nxn​. The quantity of interest is the mean squared error bn=E(xn−θ)2b_n = E(x_n - \theta)^2bn​=E(xn​−θ)2.

A sequence {an}\{a_n\}{an​} is of type 1/n1/n1/n if

∑n=1∞an2<∞(6),∑n=2∞ana1+⋯+an−1=∞(26);\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} a_n^2 < \infty \quad (6), \qquad \sum_{n=2}^{\infty} \frac{a_n}{a_1 + \cdots + a_{n-1}} = \infty \quad (26);n=1∑∞​an2​<∞(6),n=2∑∞​a1​+⋯+an−1​an​​=∞(26);

an=1/na_n = 1/nan​=1/n is the standard example. The proof also uses dn=E[(xn−θ)(M(xn)−α)]d_n = E[(x_n-\theta)(M(x_n)-\alpha)]dn​=E[(xn​−θ)(M(xn​)−α)], en=E[∫(y−α)2 dH(y∣xn)]e_n = E[\int (y-\alpha)^2\,dH(y\mid x_n)]en​=E[∫(y−α)2dH(y∣xn​)] and An=∣x1−θ∣+[C+∣α∣](a1+⋯+an−1)A_n = |x_1 - \theta| + [C+|\alpha|](a_1 + \cdots + a_{n-1})An​=∣x1​−θ∣+[C+∣α∣](a1​+⋯+an−1​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 405)

If {an}\{a_n\}{an​} is of type 1/n1/n1/n, (4) holds, and MMM is nondecreasing with M(θ)=αM(\theta) = \alphaM(θ)=α and M′(θ)>0M'(\theta) > 0M′(θ)>0, then, whatever x1x_1x1​,

lim⁡n→∞E(xn−θ)2=0.\lim_{n \to \infty} E(x_n - \theta)^2 = 0.n→∞lim​E(xn​−θ)2=0.

Milestones

  1. The one-step identity (14): bn+1−bn=an2en−2andnb_{n+1} - b_n = a_n^2 e_n - 2a_n d_nbn+1​−bn​=an2​en​−2an​dn​.
  2. The signs and bound after (14): dn≥0d_n \ge 0dn​≥0 and 0≤en≤[C+∣α∣]20 \le e_n \le [C+|\alpha|]^20≤en​≤[C+∣α∣]2.
  3. (17)–(18): ∑an2en\sum a_n^2e_n∑an2​en​ and ∑andn\sum a_n d_n∑an​dn​ converge, and b=lim⁡bn=b1+∑an2en−2∑andnb = \lim b_n = b_1 + \sum a_n^2e_n - 2\sum a_nd_nb=limbn​=b1​+∑an2​en​−2∑an​dn​ exists with b≥0b \ge 0b≥0.
  4. Lemma 1: if dn≥knbnd_n \ge k_n b_ndn​≥kn​bn​ with kn≥0k_n \ge 0kn​≥0 and ∑ankn=∞\sum a_n k_n = \infty∑an​kn​=∞, then b=0b = 0b=0.
  5. (22): Pr⁡[∣xn−θ∣≤An]=1\Pr[|x_n - \theta| \le A_n] = 1Pr[∣xn​−θ∣≤An​]=1.
  6. (24): dn≥kˉnbnd_n \ge \bar k_n b_ndn​≥kˉn​bn​, where kˉn\bar k_nkˉn​ is the infimum of (M(x)−α)/(x−θ)(M(x)-\alpha)/(x-\theta)(M(x)−α)/(x−θ) over 0<∣x−θ∣≤An0 < |x-\theta| \le A_n0<∣x−θ∣≤An​.
  7. (27): (26) implies ∑an=∞\sum a_n = \infty∑an​=∞.
  8. Lemma 2: if kˉn≥K/An\bar k_n \ge K/A_nkˉn​≥K/An​ for some K>0K > 0K>0 and large nnn, and (26) holds, then b=0b = 0b=0.
  9. (42): under (33)–(35), (M(x)−α)/(x−θ)≥δM′(θ)/2An(M(x)-\alpha)/(x-\theta) \ge \delta M'(\theta)/2A_n(M(x)−α)/(x−θ)≥δM′(θ)/2An​ on 0<∣x−θ∣≤An0 < |x-\theta| \le A_n0<∣x−θ∣≤An​.

Companion results

Theorem 1 (p. 404: the same conclusion under (5′), M(x)≤α−δM(x) \le \alpha - \deltaM(x)≤α−δ for x<θx < \thetax<θ and M(x)≥α+δM(x) \ge \alpha + \deltaM(x)≥α+δ for x>θx > \thetax>θ); convergence in probability under the hypotheses of Theorem 2 (p. 401); the quantile estimator of §4, (48); and (30), that c′/n≤an≤c′′/nc'/n \le a_n \le c''/nc′/n≤an​≤c′′/n gives a sequence of type 1/n1/n1/n.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the first convergence theorem for a recursive root-finding procedure under noise. It shows that a procedure using no knowledge of MMM or of the noise distribution, beyond a monotone crossing and a positive slope at the root, is consistent. Section 4 turns it into a distribution-free consistent estimator of a quantile from response/nonresponse data, the up-and-down designs of bioassay and sensitivity testing. Its step-size conditions, ∑an2<∞\sum a_n^2 < \infty∑an2​<∞ with a divergence condition, remain the standard conditions for stochastic gradient methods.

The theorem has been proved since 1951 and strengthened many times. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof, and Mathlib has no stochastic approximation theory. Formalizing it requires conditional laws given by Markov kernels, integration against a composition of a measure with a kernel, and deterministic series arguments. A finished formalization would be a base for formalizing the almost-sure theorems (Blum, Robbins–Siegmund) and the ODE method.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at one step. Monotonicity of MMM and a positive derivative at θ\thetaθ do not give a uniform positive lower bound on the slope (M(x)−α)/(x−θ)(M(x)-\alpha)/(x-\theta)(M(x)−α)/(x−θ): away from θ\thetaθ the slope can decay to 000, for example when MMM is bounded, as (4) forces. So the drift towards θ\thetaθ is not uniformly strong, and the newcomer's first idea, a uniform contraction bn+1≤(1−c an)bn+O(an2)b_{n+1} \le (1 - c\,a_n) b_n + O(a_n^2)bn+1​≤(1−can​)bn​+O(an2​), is not available under (33)–(35). This is why the theorem needs the divergence condition (26), which is stronger than ∑an=∞\sum a_n = \infty∑an​=∞, and not only (6). On the formal side, the expectations come from integrating against the joint law of (xn,yn)(x_n, y_n)(xn​,yn​), and they need integrability bounds before any identity can be used.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the namespace RobbinsMonroSA.Conv, over a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P) with IsProbabilityMeasure P. Indices are 0-based: Lean's x 0, a 0 are the paper's x1x_1x1​, a1a_1a1​, and Lean's bigA … n is the paper's An+1A_{n+1}An+1​. The committed conventions are:

  • HHH is a Kernel ℝ ℝ with IsMarkovKernel H (each H(⋅∣x)H(\cdot\mid x)H(⋅∣x) is a probability law, measurable in xxx).
  • (4) is 0 < C ∧ ∀ x, H x [-C, C] = 1. It is a hypothesis of every item that mentions an expectation, and it is what keeps the Bochner integrals defining bnb_nbn​, dnd_ndn​, ene_nen​ and MMM from defaulting to 000.
  • (8) is the joint-law equation: the law of (xn,yn)(x_n, y_n)(xn​,yn​) is the law of xnx_nxn​ composed with HHH. (7) holds surely, and xnx_nxn​, yny_nyn​ are measurable. No Markov property or filtration beyond (8) is assumed.
  • Every "=∞= \infty=∞" for a series ((19), (26), (27)) is divergence of partial sums to +∞+\infty+∞. "b=0b = 0b=0" is bn→0b_n \to 0bn​→0.
  • M′(θ)>0M'(\theta) > 0M′(θ)>0 is HasDerivAt M M' θ with 0 < M'.
  • The infimum kˉn\bar k_nkˉn​ of (23) is never formed. (24) and (25) are stated with lower bounds on (M(z)−α)/(z−θ)(M(z)-\alpha)/(z-\theta)(M(z)−α)/(z−θ) over 0<∣z−θ∣≤An0<|z-\theta|\le A_n0<∣z−θ∣≤An​. This avoids the junk value 000 that Lean's real infimum gives on the empty range (An=0A_n = 0An​=0), where the paper's infimum is +∞+\infty+∞.

The standing assumptions of §3, (4), (5) and (6), are hypotheses of Lemma 1, Lemma 2 and the displays of §3 whose proofs use them. In Theorems 1 and 2, (5) follows from (5′) or from (33)–(34), and (6) is part of "type 1/n1/n1/n".

The goal cannot be trivialized. It mentions neither dnd_ndn​, ene_nen​, AnA_nAn​ nor any constant, and the process must satisfy (8) for every nnn. Without (8), yny_nyn​ would be arbitrary and the statement false; with yn=M(xn)y_n = M(x_n)yn​=M(xn​) it would be deterministic.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, reusable lemmas on integrating against μ ⊗ₘ κ, and a proof that an=1/na_n = 1/nan​=1/n satisfies (26).

Selected references

  • H. Robbins and S. Monro, A stochastic approximation method, Ann. Math. Statist. 22 (1951), 400–407. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729586
  • J. Kiefer and J. Wolfowitz, Stochastic estimation of the maximum of a regression function, Ann. Math. Statist. 23 (1952), 462–466. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177729392
  • J. R. Blum, Approximation methods which converge with probability one, Ann. Math. Statist. 25 (1954), 382–386. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728794
  • A. Dvoretzky, On stochastic approximation, Proc. Third Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob. 1 (1956), 39–55. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200501645
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics (1971), 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • M. Benaïm, Dynamics of stochastic approximation algorithms, Séminaire de Probabilités XXXIII, LNM 1709 (1999), 1–68. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0096509
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 4: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Total Completion Time with One Release DateResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing the total completion time ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ of jobs on a single machine is one of the oldest problems in scheduling theory. When every job is available at time 000, processing the jobs in order of nondecreasing processing time is optimal (the shortest-processing-time rule), so the problem is solved by sorting. Release dates, times before which a job may not start, change the picture. In their 1975 report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977), Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan used the then-new theory of NP-completeness (Cook 1971, Karp 1972) to map which classical scheduling problems are polynomially solvable and which are NP-complete. Theorem 4 of that report lists ten problems to which KNAPSACK reduces. Part (a) shows that total completion time on one machine is already hard when a single job has a nonzero release date and all weights are equal.

The result is a sharp boundary. With all release dates zero the problem is easy; with one nonzero release date it is NP-complete. It is a standard entry in the complexity classification of single-machine problems that later surveys (Lawler, Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Shmoys, 1993) and the scheduling-complexity databases build on.

Setting

An instance of KNAPSACK consists of positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb; with T={1,…,t}T=\{1,\dots,t\}T={1,…,t}, it has a solution if ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b for some S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T.

In the scheduling problem there are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and one machine. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pjp_jpj​, a weight wjw_jwj​ and a release date rjr_jrj​, all nonnegative integers. A schedule assigns each job a starting time Bj≥rjB_j\ge r_jBj​≥rj​; the job completes at Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​, and no two jobs are processed at the same time. The problem written n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ in the paper's notation is the class of instances in which every weight is 111 and every job except the last one, JnJ_nJn​, has release date 000. Its recognition version asks, given such an instance and an integer yyy, whether some schedule has ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.

A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP (written P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P) when every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer. The paper's construction maps a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b (with 0<b<A=∑jaj0<b<A=\sum_ja_j0<b<A=∑j​aj​ and a∗=max⁡jaja_*=\max_ja_ja∗​=maxj​aj​) to an instance with n=t+t′+u+1n=t+t'+u+1n=t+t′+u+1 jobs in four groups TTT, T′T'T′, UUU and {Jn}\{J_n\}{Jn​}, with processing times τ+aj\tau+a_jτ+aj​, τ\tauτ, υ\upsilonυ and 111, the release date rn=tτ+br_n=t\tau+brn​=tτ+b, and threshold y=υ+12u(u+1)υy=\upsilon+\tfrac12u(u+1)\upsilony=υ+21​u(u+1)υ, where t′t't′, τ\tauτ, uuu, σ\sigmaσ, υ\upsilonυ are explicit polynomials in ttt, a∗a_*a∗​, bbb and AAA.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(a)

KNAPSACK ∝ n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCj,\text{KNAPSACK}\ \propto\ n|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j ,KNAPSACK ∝ n∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​,

stated as CookPvsNP.PolyReducible knapsackLang sumCLangMult: a polynomial-time computable map on binary strings that sends codes of solvable KNAPSACK instances, and only those, to codes of yes-instances of the scheduling problem.

Milestones

  1. Forward direction (p. 22). If ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b, the processing order (S′,S,Jn,T′−S′,T−S,U)(S',S,J_n,T'-S',T-S,U)(S′,S,Jn​,T′−S′,T−S,U), with S′={t+j∣j∈T−S}S'=\{t+j\mid j\in T-S\}S′={t+j∣j∈T−S}, gives a feasible schedule with ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u, ∑j∈UCj=uσ+12u(u+1)υ\sum_{j\in U}C_j=u\sigma+\tfrac12u(u+1)\upsilon∑j∈U​Cj​=uσ+21​u(u+1)υ and ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.
  2. Claim (A). In every schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y, all jobs outside UUU precede all jobs of UUU.
  3. Claim (B). In every such schedule some job of UUU starts by time σ\sigmaσ; consequently ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u.
  4. Claim (C). Exactly ttt jobs precede JnJ_nJn​.
  5. Claim (D). Bn=tτ+bB_n=t\tau+bBn​=tτ+b.
  6. Equivalence (pp. 22–23). For 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A, KNAPSACK has a solution iff the constructed instance has a schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y.

Significance

Together with the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK (Theorem 2(b), quoted from Karp), Theorem 4(a) shows that n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ is NP-complete; with general release dates the problem 1∣rj∣∑Cj1|r_j|\sum C_j1∣rj​∣∑Cj​ is then NP-hard as well. The hardness here is in the ordinary sense: the construction is polynomial only in the multiplicity encoding (see below), and the reduction is from KNAPSACK, which has a pseudo-polynomial algorithm.

The result is proved on paper. A formalization adds a machine-checked complexity reduction whose correctness proof is a sequence of delicate counting estimates with large explicit constants; the paper closes the converse with "as is easily seen", and the forward computation and claims (C), (D) contain displayed identities that a formal proof must verify exactly. The definitions (single-machine schedules with release dates, the schedule of a processing order, the multiplicity encoding) are reusable for the other single-machine reductions of the same paper and for later classification results.

Difficulty

The forward direction is a direct computation. The converse is where the difficulty lies: a schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y is arbitrary, may contain idle time, and may interleave the groups. Such a schedule must be shown to be rigid (claims (A)–(D)), and the claims are statements about every schedule, not about a convenient one. Each step compares sums of the form ∑jτ\sum jτ∑jτ against uuu with an additive slack smaller than τ\tauτ, so the constants must be tracked exactly; an estimate that loses a single τ\tauτ breaks the argument. Extracting the knapsack subset at the end requires recognizing which ttt jobs fill [0,tτ+b)[0,t\tau+b)[0,tτ+b) and why their extra lengths aja_jaj​ sum to exactly bbb.

For the goal, the polynomiality of the reduction is not automatic: the constructed instance has t′=t(t+1)a∗t'=t(t+1)a_*t′=t(t+1)a∗​ and uuu jobs, which is exponential in the length of the binary KNAPSACK input. The paper's Remark (p. 23) resolves this by encoding groups of identical jobs by their cardinality and one copy of their data, and the formal statement adopts that encoding.

Formalization scope

  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs (polynomial-time many-one reducibility in Cook's machine model). Numbers are coded in binary over the four-letter alphabet BSym with encNats from the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's formalization); its own subsetSumLang allows zero entries, so KNAPSACK over positive integers is defined here.
  • Jobs are indexed by Fin n, 0-based; the groups TTT, T′T'T′, UUU and JnJ_nJn​ are index ranges. Starting times are natural numbers: the paper computes them from processing orders on integer data (Section 3), and claim (D) is false for real starting times.
  • A schedule is feasible when every job starts at or after its release date and the occupied half-open intervals [Bj,Bj+pj)[B_j,B_j+p_j)[Bj​,Bj​+pj​) are pairwise disjoint; idle time is allowed.
  • "Precedes" in claims (A) and (C) means "starts earlier on the machine"; there are no precedence constraints.
  • The claims are stated with exactly the hypotheses the proof uses: the schedule is feasible and ∑jCj≤y\sum_jC_j\le y∑j​Cj​≤y, for positive aja_jaj​, bbb with 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A (the paper's "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A", p. 16).
  • The halves in uuu and yyy are exact natural-number divisions, since the products are even. The letter uuu is both the size of UUU and the bound ∑j∉UCj≤u\sum_{j\notin U}C_j\le u∑j∈/U​Cj​≤u, as in the paper.
  • The goal's target language uses the multiplicity encoding: a list of job types (count, processing time, weight, release date) and yyy; the class conditions (unit weights, release date 000 for every job but the last) are checked on the expanded job list. A one-entry-per-job encoding would make the paper's construction non-polynomial, and the statement would not be the paper's.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the goal includes polynomial-time computability (not just an equivalence of yes-instances), the KNAPSACK language requires positive entries as in the paper, and the target language requires class membership, so mapping to an instance outside the class is not a way out.
  • Welcome contributions: the arithmetic identities of the construction, the schedule of a processing order and its feasibility, the counting lemmas behind (C) and (D), and polynomial-time computability of the multiplicity-encoded construction in the CookPvsNP model.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, Proc. 3rd ACM STOC, 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • E. L. Lawler, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, D. B. Shmoys, Sequencing and scheduling: algorithms and complexity, Handbooks in OR & MS 4, 1993, 445–522. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(05)80189-6
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

The Tight Constant in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz Inequality I: P(√n sup(F − F̂ₙ) > λ) ≤ exp(−2λ²) for λ ≥ min(√(log 2/2), 1.0841 n^(−1/6))Research Paper

Motivation

The Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics measure how far the empirical distribution of a sample lies from a hypothesised distribution. They are the standard goodness-of-fit test for continuous data, and their tail probabilities are the basic tool for confidence bands around a distribution function. A test is only usable at a fixed sample size if those tail probabilities are controlled for every nnn, not just in the limit.

Timeline.

  • 1933–1944. Kolmogorov and Smirnov introduce the statistics, prove that their laws do not depend on the continuous distribution, and find the limit laws, e.g. lim⁡nP(Dn−>λ)=exp⁡(−2λ2)\lim_n P(D_n^->\lambda)=\exp(-2\lambda^2)limn​P(Dn−​>λ)=exp(−2λ2). Smirnov (1944) also gives the exact law of the one-sided statistic and the expansion P(Dn−>λ)=exp⁡(−2λ2)(1−2λ3n+O(n−1))P(D_n^->\lambda)=\exp(-2\lambda^2)\bigl(1-\frac{2\lambda}{3\sqrt n}+O(n^{-1})\bigr)P(Dn−​>λ)=exp(−2λ2)(1−3n​2λ​+O(n−1)).
  • 1956. Dvoretzky, Kiefer and Wolfowitz prove P(Dn−>λ)≤Cexp⁡(−2λ2)P(D_n^->\lambda)\le C\exp(-2\lambda^2)P(Dn−​>λ)≤Cexp(−2λ2) for every nnn, with an unspecified constant CCC (Ann. Math. Statist. 27).
  • 1958. Birnbaum and McCarty conjecture that C=1C=1C=1 is admissible.
  • 1979–1985. Explicit constants: C≤306C\le306C≤306 (Devroye and Wise), C≤29C\le29C≤29 (Shorack and Wellner), C≤22C\le2\sqrt2C≤22​ (Hu).
  • 1990. Massart proves the conjecture under a mild lower bound on λ\lambdaλ, and deduces the two-sided bound with the optimal constant 222 (Ann. Probab. 18).

Setting

Let x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​ (n≥1n\ge1n≥1) be independent, identically distributed real random variables with a continuous distribution function FFF. The empirical distribution function is

F^n(x)=1n∑i=1n1(xi≤x),\hat F_n(x)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\mathbb 1_{(x_i\le x)},F^n​(x)=n1​i=1∑n​1(xi​≤x)​,

and the centred, normalised empirical process is Zn=n(F^n−F)Z_n=\sqrt n(\hat F_n-F)Zn​=n​(F^n​−F). The statistics are

Dn+=sup⁡x∈RZn(x),Dn−=sup⁡x∈R(−Zn(x)),Dn=sup⁡x∈R∣Zn(x)∣.D_n^+=\sup_{x\in\mathbb R}Z_n(x),\qquad D_n^-=\sup_{x\in\mathbb R}\bigl(-Z_n(x)\bigr),\qquad D_n=\sup_{x\in\mathbb R}|Z_n(x)|.Dn+​=x∈Rsup​Zn​(x),Dn−​=x∈Rsup​(−Zn​(x)),Dn​=x∈Rsup​∣Zn​(x)∣.

In Lean the sample is X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ, independent (iIndepFun X P) with common law μ (HasLaw (X i) μ P), FFF is cdf μ, and the statistics are Dplus μ X, Dminus μ X, Dtwo μ X. The parameter λ\lambdaλ is written l.

The proof works with Smirnov's point probabilities pλ,n(j)=λn (j+λn)j−1(n−j−λn)n−jn−n(nj)p_{\lambda,n}(j)=\lambda\sqrt n\,(j+\lambda\sqrt n)^{j-1}(n-j-\lambda\sqrt n)^{n-j}n^{-n}\binom njpλ,n​(j)=λn​(j+λn​)j−1(n−j−λn​)n−jn−n(jn​), whose sum over 0≤j<n−λn0\le j<n-\lambda\sqrt n0≤j<n−λn​ is P(Dn−>λ)P(D_n^->\lambda)P(Dn−​>λ), with Csáki's density fλ(s)=λ2πs−3/2(1−s)−1/2exp⁡(−λ22s(1−s))f_\lambda(s)=\frac{\lambda}{\sqrt{2\pi}}s^{-3/2}(1-s)^{-1/2}\exp\bigl(-\frac{\lambda^2}{2s(1-s)}\bigr)fλ​(s)=2π​λ​s−3/2(1−s)−1/2exp(−2s(1−s)λ2​) of the first passage of a Brownian bridge at level λ\lambdaλ, and with the ratio Cλ,n=exp⁡(2λ2)P(Dn−>λ)C_{\lambda,n}=\exp(2\lambda^2)P(D_n^->\lambda)Cλ,n​=exp(2λ2)P(Dn−​>λ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and every λ≥log⁡(2)/2∧γn−1/6\lambda\ge\sqrt{\log(2)/2}\wedge\gamma n^{-1/6}λ≥log(2)/2​∧γn−1/6, with γ=1.0841\gamma=1.0841γ=1.0841,

P(Dn−>λ)≤exp⁡(−2λ2).P(D_n^->\lambda)\le\exp(-2\lambda^2).P(Dn−​>λ)≤exp(−2λ2).

Here ∧\wedge∧ is the minimum. The constant 111 in front of the exponential is the point of the theorem; the threshold on λ\lambdaλ is the paper's.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof in the paper's order of attack:

  1. the reduction to the uniform law, and Smirnov's exact formula (2.3);
  2. the identity ∫01fλ=exp⁡(−2λ2)\int_0^1f_\lambda=\exp(-2\lambda^2)∫01​fλ​=exp(−2λ2) (2.4);
  3. the local comparison of pλ,n(j)p_{\lambda,n}(j)pλ,n​(j) with fλf_\lambdafλ​: (2.7), Lemma 2, Claims 1–3, and Proposition 1;
  4. the midpoint bound for log-convex integrands (Lemma 3) and the closed forms of Lemma 4;
  5. the nonasymptotic expansion (2.11), the negativity of its right side ηn\eta_nηn​, and with them Theorem 1 for n≥39n\ge39n≥39, λ≤n/2\lambda\le\sqrt n/2λ≤n​/2;
  6. Proposition 2 on the slope of Cλ,nC_{\lambda,n}Cλ,n​, the crude bounds (2.13)–(2.14), and the finite grid check (2.15) for n≤38n\le38n≤38.

Companions

The equality in law of Dn+D_n^+Dn+​ and Dn−D_n^-Dn−​, Comment 1 ((1.4) whenever exp⁡(−2λ2)≤1/2\exp(-2\lambda^2)\le1/2exp(−2λ2)≤1/2), the reduction P(Dn>λ)≤2P(Dn−>λ)P(D_n>\lambda)\le2P(D_n^->\lambda)P(Dn​>λ)≤2P(Dn−​>λ), and Corollary 1:

P(Dn>λ)≤2exp⁡(−2λ2)(λ>0).P(D_n>\lambda)\le2\exp(-2\lambda^2)\qquad(\lambda>0).P(Dn​>λ)≤2exp(−2λ2)(λ>0).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 and Corollary 1 give non-asymptotic Kolmogorov–Smirnov bands with the asymptotic constants, 111 and 222, which cannot be improved because of the limit laws. Corollary 1 is the form in which the DKW inequality is quoted throughout statistics and learning theory: confidence bands for distribution functions, sample-size calculations for quantile estimation, and as a building block in bandit and empirical-risk analyses. Comment 1 says that the one-sided test is never anti-conservative at levels up to 50%, whatever the sample size.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper but not machine-checked. A formal development would give a verified, constant-explicit DKW inequality that downstream statistical results can import as a black box instead of carrying an unspecified CCC. The milestones also produce reusable pieces: Smirnov's exact law of the one-sided statistic, the Brownian-bridge first-passage integral, and a family of explicit elementary inequalities. The proof uses computer-checked numerics ((2.15), Lemma 2, η39\eta_{39}η39​); turning those into checked certificates is part of the work.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to compare the exact sum (2.3) term by term with the integral (2.4). The local comparison P(τn=t)≤1nfλ(t−ε/3)P(\tau_n=t)\le\frac1nf_\lambda(t-\varepsilon/3)P(τn​=t)≤n1​fλ​(t−ε/3) is only nearly true: a corrective factor is needed, and it is largest on the tail, where the crossing time ttt is close to ε=λ/n\varepsilon=\lambda/\sqrt nε=λ/n​. Controlling that factor uniformly in jjj while keeping the leading constant exactly 111 is what forces the delicate constants (θ=0.4833\theta=0.4833θ=0.4833, β=0.826\beta=0.826β=0.826, μ=0.4345\mu=0.4345μ=0.4345, γ=1.0841\gamma=1.0841γ=1.0841). For small nnn the analytic bounds are too weak, and the proof closes the gap with a Lipschitz bound on λ↦Cλ,n\lambda\mapsto C_{\lambda,n}λ↦Cλ,n​ plus a finite numerical check over a grid; neither half suffices alone.

Formalization scope

Conventions:

  • n≥1n\ge1n≥1; the sample is indexed by Fin n; FFF is cdf μ with Continuous (cdf μ) assumed, as in Theorem 1.
  • Probabilities are measures of events in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and are compared with ENNReal.ofReal of the bound. Each supremum defining a statistic is of a function with values in [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], hence a genuine real supremum.
  • pλ,n(j)p_{\lambda,n}(j)pλ,n​(j) uses an integer power at j−1j-1j−1, so that pλ,n(0)=(1−ε)np_{\lambda,n}(0)=(1-\varepsilon)^npλ,n​(0)=(1−ε)n. Cλ,nC_{\lambda,n}Cλ,n​ is defined from the exact formula (2.3); it equals exp⁡(2λ2)P(Dn−>λ)\exp(2\lambda^2)P(D_n^->\lambda)exp(2λ2)P(Dn−​>λ) by the (2.3) milestone, so the analytic milestones carry no probability.
  • Statements that the page gives through derivatives of Cλ,nC_{\lambda,n}Cλ,n​ (Proposition 2(i), (iii)) are stated as monotonicity and as an increment bound, because Cλ,nC_{\lambda,n}Cλ,n​ has kinks.

Additions and corrections relative to the page, each disclosed in its item: the printed slips in (2.1) (range of jjj), (2.8) (swapped numerators) and Proposition 2(i) ("≥0\ge0≥0" for nonincreasing) are corrected; Claim 2 carries the hypothesis ε≤3s′\varepsilon\le3s'ε≤3s′, without which the corrected claim is false; Lemma 3 uses strict inequalities δ<s<1−δ\delta<s<1-\deltaδ<s<1−δ; Comment 1 makes the implicit λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 explicit; (2.14) carries Proposition 2's standing range n≥2n\ge2n≥2, 0<λ<n0<\lambda<\sqrt n0<λ<n​.

The goal does not mention pλ,np_{\lambda,n}pλ,n​, fλf_\lambdafλ​, Cλ,nC_{\lambda,n}Cλ,n​, the case split at n=39n=39n=39, or the computer check; a formalization of the goal through those objects, or with the threshold read as a maximum instead of a minimum, would be a different and weaker statement.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: the empirical process of an i.i.d. sample and its reduction to the uniform law by the probability integral transform; Smirnov's exact one-sided law (a ballot-type combinatorial identity); Gaussian-type integrals on ]0,1[]0,1[]0,1[; elementary but delicate real inequalities; and certified interval arithmetic for the numerical steps. The first two are reusable for any work on empirical processes. Contributions on any milestone are welcome, in particular formal proofs of (2.3), of the numerical steps, and of the companions.

Selected references

  • P. Massart, The tight constant in the Dvoretzky–Kiefer–Wolfowitz inequality, Ann. Probab. 18(3):1269–1283, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176990746
  • A. Dvoretzky, J. Kiefer, J. Wolfowitz, Asymptotic minimax character of the sample distribution function and of the classical multinomial estimator, Ann. Math. Statist. 27:642–669, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728174
  • Z. W. Birnbaum, R. C. McCarty, A distribution-free upper confidence bound for P(Y<X), based on independent samples of X and Y, Ann. Math. Statist. 29:558–562, 1958.
  • N. V. Smirnov, Approximate laws of distribution of random variables from empirical data, Uspekhi Mat. Nauk 10:179–206, 1944.
  • E. Csáki, Investigations concerning the empirical distribution function, Magyar Tud. Akad. Mat. Fiz. Oszt. Közl. 23:239–327, 1974; English translation in Selected Transl. Math. Statist. Probab. 15:229–317, 1981.
  • G. R. Shorack, J. A. Wellner, Empirical Processes with Applications to Statistics, Wiley, 1986.
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions: An Optimal Solution of the Equilibrium LP Yields a Stationary Decision Rule of Least Expected Monthly CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Alan S. Manne's Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions (Management Science 6(3), 1960, pp. 259–267) is the first formulation of an infinite-horizon, average-cost sequential decision problem as a linear program. The illustration is a single-item inventory problem, but the construction, with unknowns indexed by a state and a decision and constraints expressing statistical equilibrium, became the standard state–action frequency linear program of Markov decision processes. Later LP approaches to average-cost Markov decision processes, including constrained ones, build on it.

Timeline of the LP approach to average-cost problems:

  • 1960 — Manne: the inventory model as a linear program in the joint probabilities of (stock level, production quantity); mixed strategies allowed; the decision rule is read off as a conditional probability.
  • 1960 — H. M. Wagner, in a companion note in the same issue, shows that an optimal solution consisting of pure strategies exists.
  • 1962 — C. Derman (Management Science 9(1), 1962) gives the general finite-state, finite-action version, assuming every stationary randomized rule yields an irreducible chain.
  • 1960 — F. d'Epenoux (Revue Française de Recherche Opérationnelle 4, No. 14; English translation 1963) treats the discounted criterion by linear programming, as Manne's closing note records.

Setting

A positive integer TTT bounds inventory accumulation; the stock levels are 0,1,…,T0,1,\dots,T0,1,…,T. At the start of a month the initial stock iii is observed and a production quantity jjj is chosen; the available stock is k=i+jk=i+jk=i+j. The month's demand n∈{0,1,2,… }n\in\{0,1,2,\dots\}n∈{0,1,2,…} is independent of everything else and has law pnp_npn​. Backlogs are excluded, so the terminal stock is t=max⁡(0,k−n)t=\max(0,k-n)t=max(0,k−n), which becomes the next initial stock. A finite set AAA of admissible pairs (i,j)(i,j)(i,j), all with i+j≤Ti+j\le Ti+j≤T and containing (i,0)(i,0)(i,0) for every i≤Ti\le Ti≤T, lists the decisions available at each stock level. Costs are three arbitrary real functions: C1(i)C_1(i)C1​(i) of the initial stock, C2(j)C_2(j)C2​(j) of the production quantity, and C3(n−k)C_3(n-k)C3​(n−k) of the shortage level.

A stationary randomized decision rule q(j∣i)q(j\mid i)q(j∣i) is a conditional probability of producing jjj at stock iii, supported on admissible pairs. It makes the initial stock a Markov chain. A statistical equilibrium of qqq is a stationary distribution y=(y0,…,yT)y=(y_0,\dots,y_T)y=(y0​,…,yT​) of that chain: the law y′y'y′ of the terminal stock equals the law yyy of the initial stock, (2). The expected monthly cost (1) of qqq in the equilibrium yyy is

EC1(i)+EC2(j)+EC3(n−k),\mathcal EC_1(i)+\mathcal EC_2(j)+\mathcal EC_3(n-k),EC1​(i)+EC2​(j)+EC3​(n−k),

the expectation taken under the joint law yi q(j∣i) pny_i\,q(j\mid i)\,p_nyi​q(j∣i)pn​ of (initial stock, production, demand).

The linear program has one unknown xijx_{ij}xij​ per admissible pair, the joint probability of (initial stock iii, production jjj). Its constraints are xij≥0x_{ij}\ge0xij​≥0, (4) ∑i,jxij=1\sum_{i,j}x_{ij}=1∑i,j​xij​=1, and the equilibrium equations

(8.t)∑jxtj=∑i,j,n:i+j−n=tpnxij(t=1,…,T),\text{(8.t)}\qquad \sum_j x_{tj}=\sum_{\substack{i,j,n:\\ i+j-n=t}}p_nx_{ij}\qquad(t=1,\dots,T),(8.t)j∑​xtj​=i,j,n:i+j−n=t​∑​pn​xij​(t=1,…,T),

and its objective (9) is ∑i,jcijxij\sum_{i,j}c_{ij}x_{ij}∑i,j​cij​xij​ with the cost coefficients (10)

cij=C1(i)+C2(j)+∑npnC3(n−i−j).c_{ij}=C_1(i)+C_2(j)+\sum_np_nC_3(n-i-j).cij​=C1​(i)+C2​(j)+n∑​pn​C3​(n−i−j).

The companion equation (8.0) for t=0t=0t=0 has right-hand side ∑i+j−n≤0pnxij\sum_{i+j-n\le0}p_nx_{ij}∑i+j−n≤0​pn​xij​ and is omitted from the constraints. A feasible xxx is decoded into yi=∑jxijy_i=\sum_jx_{ij}yi​=∑j​xij​ and q(j∣i)=xij/yiq(j\mid i)=x_{ij}/y_iq(j∣i)=xij​/yi​.

Formalization targets

The paper labels no theorem or lemma. The goal is assembled from §1 (third paragraph), §3 (N.B.), §4 (last two paragraphs), §5 and §7 (3), and every milestone is cited by section, display, table or footnote.

Goal: an LP optimum gives an optimal stationary rule

Assume ∑npn∣C3(n−i−j)∣<∞\sum_np_n|C_3(n-i-j)|<\infty∑n​pn​∣C3​(n−i−j)∣<∞ for every admissible pair. Then the linear program has an optimal solution, and for every optimal solution x∗x^*x∗, with decoding (q∗,y∗)(q^*,y^*)(q∗,y∗), q∗q^*q∗ is a stationary randomized rule, y∗y^*y∗ is a statistical equilibrium of q∗q^*q∗, and

Cost(q∗,y∗)=∑i,jcijxij∗≤Cost(q,y)\mathrm{Cost}(q^*,y^*)=\sum_{i,j}c_{ij}x^*_{ij}\le \mathrm{Cost}(q,y)Cost(q∗,y∗)=i,j∑​cij​xij∗​≤Cost(q,y)

for every stationary randomized rule qqq and every statistical equilibrium yyy of qqq.

Milestones

  1. (7): under a rule in a distribution yyy, the law of the terminal stock is the right-hand side of (7)/(8) evaluated at xij=yiq(j∣i)x_{ij}=y_iq(j\mid i)xij​=yi​q(j∣i).
  2. (8.0)–(8.T): a rule in statistical equilibrium yields a point satisfying x≥0x\ge0x≥0, (4) and all of (8.0)–(8.T).
  3. (8.0) is redundant: (4) and (8.1)–(8.T) imply (8.0).
  4. §3, N.B.: every feasible xxx equals yiq(j∣i)y_iq(j\mid i)yi​q(j∣i) for its decoding (q,y)(q,y)(q,y), with yyy an equilibrium of qqq.
  5. (10): the expected monthly cost (1) under the joint law xijpnx_{ij}p_nxij​pn​ equals ∑cijxij\sum c_{ij}x_{ij}∑cij​xij​.
  6. Table 1: the cost coefficients of the §6 example (T=3T=3T=3, p=(2/3,0,1/3)p=(2/3,0,1/3)p=(2/3,0,1/3), C1(i)=iC_1(i)=iC1​(i)=i, C2(j)=3jC_2(j)=3jC2​(j)=3j, C3(m)=max⁡[0,6m]C_3(m)=\max[0,6m]C3​(m)=max[0,6m], j∈{0,1}j\in\{0,1\}j∈{0,1}) are 4,5,3,4,2,5,34,5,3,4,2,5,34,5,3,4,2,5,3.
  7. Table 2, footnote 3: x01=1/3x_{01}=1/3x01​=1/3, x11=2/9x_{11}=2/9x11​=2/9, x20=4/9x_{20}=4/9x20​=4/9 is optimal with cost 31/931/931/9; the do-nothing solution costs 444.
  8. Footnote 5: the implicit prices −7/3,−13/3,−11/3-7/3,-13/3,-11/3−7/3,−13/3,−11/3 of (8.1)–(8.3), with 31/931/931/9 on (4), are an optimal dual solution.

Significance

The result turns an infinite-horizon control problem into a finite linear program. Equilibrium joint laws of (state, decision) under stationary randomized rules are exactly the feasible points of a polytope, and the average cost is linear on it. Consequences include computability by the simplex method; an economic reading of the dual variables (Manne's footnote 5 interprets them as the relative advantage of starting at a given stock level, related to Bellman's functional equation); and, in later work, the treatment of side constraints, which dynamic programming handles poorly.

The result is classical and proved in the paper (largely by inspection of the definitions). It has not been formalized. The formalization adds three things. First, a precise statement of what is optimized when the chain of a rule is not irreducible: the paper's §7 (3) concedes that a "decomposable" optimum makes the equilibrium depend on initial conditions, and the goal resolves this by optimizing over (rule, equilibrium) pairs. Second, an explicit treatment of the stock levels the equilibrium never visits, where the paper's quotient xij/∑jxijx_{ij}/\sum_jx_{ij}xij​/∑j​xij​ is undefined. Third, a machine-checked numerical example whose LP is derived from the general definitions, not entered by hand. Derman's later irreducible-case version exists on the platform as a separate open statement; this mission covers Manne's irreducibility-free version on state-dependent action sets.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary; the work is bookkeeping across three descriptions of the same object. The equilibrium is defined through the transition kernel of the controlled chain, the LP through the displayed sums over (i,j,n)(i,j,n)(i,j,n) with conditions i+j−n≤0i+j-n\le0i+j−n≤0 and i+j−n=ti+j-n=ti+j−n=t, and the cost through the joint law of three variables. Identifying them needs a reindexing of the admissible pairs by stock level, the interchange of a finite sum with an infinite sum over demands, and ∑npn=1\sum_np_n=1∑n​pn​=1. The naive argument "the LP constraints are the equilibrium equations, so the LP optimum is the optimal rule" skips two points. The constraints omit (8.0), so equilibrium at stock level 000 must be recovered from (4) and the bound i+j≤Ti+j\le Ti+j≤T. And the decoding fails at unvisited stock levels unless a default action is supplied. Existence of an LP optimum requires compactness of the feasible polytope, not just its nonemptiness.

Formalization scope

All statements live in the namespace ManneLP.Equilibrium. Conventions:

  • Stock levels and production quantities are natural numbers; a model carries T>0T>0T>0, the admissible set AAA (a Finset (ℕ × ℕ) with i+j≤Ti+j\le Ti+j≤T and every (i,0)∈A(i,0)\in A(i,0)∈A), a demand law p:N→Rp:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rp:N→R with pn≥0p_n\ge0pn​≥0 and HasSum p 1, and costs C1,C2:N→RC_1,C_2:\mathbb N\to\mathbb RC1​,C2​:N→R, C3:Z→RC_3:\mathbb Z\to\mathbb RC3​:Z→R. The shortage level n−i−jn-i-jn−i−j is an integer; no convexity, sign or monotonicity of the costs is assumed.
  • The admissible set is a parameter: §6 imposes a capacity limit j≤1j\le1j≤1. Reading of the page: i+j≤Ti+j\le Ti+j≤T is how §2's requirement max⁡(0,k−n)≤T\max(0,k-n)\le Tmax(0,k−n)≤T holds whatever the demand; (i,0)∈A(i,0)\in A(i,0)∈A (producing nothing is possible) is implicit in §2.
  • The terminal stock is computed by truncated subtraction in N\mathbb NN, which equals max⁡(0,k−n)\max(0,k-n)max(0,k−n). Sums over demands are tsums; the demand is not assumed bounded. The goal and the cost identity assume the expected shortage cost at each admissible pair is finite (absolutely summable), which the page takes for granted.
  • A statistical equilibrium is a stationary distribution of the chain of the rule, defined from the transition probabilities, not from (8). The expected monthly cost is defined from the joint law of (stock, production, demand), not as ∑cijxij\sum c_{ij}x_{ij}∑cij​xij​. The LP constraint set omits (8.0), exactly as the page does.
  • The decoded rule uses the default action j=0j=0j=0 at stock levels with ∑jxij=0\sum_jx_{ij}=0∑j​xij​=0; any admissible default would do.
  • Table 2's x30=εx_{30}=\varepsilonx30​=ε is the paper's device against degeneracy; the example's solution has x30=0x_{30}=0x30​=0. Footnote 5 prints no price for (4); 31/931/931/9 is the price forced by equal objectives, and the dual optimum is not claimed unique.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: equilibrium is not defined as (8) (which would make milestone 2 vacuous), (8.0) is not a constraint (which would make milestone 3 vacuous), the cost is not defined as ∑cijxij\sum c_{ij}x_{ij}∑cij​xij​ (which would make milestone 5 and the goal's cost clause definitional), and the optimality comparison ranges over all rules and all of their equilibria, not over irreducible chains or pure rules.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and the goal; computations of the §6 example from the general definitions; reusable lemmas on stationary distributions of finite stochastic matrices and on the existence of LP optima over compact polytopes.

Selected references

  • A. S. Manne, Linear Programming and Sequential Decisions, Management Science 6(3), 259–267, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.259
  • H. M. Wagner, On the Optimality of Pure Strategies, Management Science 6(3), 268–269, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.3.268
  • C. Derman, On Sequential Decisions and Markov Chains, Management Science 9(1), 16–24, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.1.16
  • F. d'Epenoux, A Probabilistic Production and Inventory Problem, Management Science 10(1), 98–108, 1963 (translation of the 1960 French paper). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.10.1.98
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CombinatoricsDiscrete GeometryLinear Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The d-Step Conjecture for Polyhedra of Dimension d < 6 1: The Bounded 5-Step Conjecture Holds, Every 5-Polytope with 10 Facets Has Diameter at Most 5, i.e. Δb(5, 10) = 5Research Paper

Motivation

The simplex method and every other edge-following linear programming algorithm moves from vertex to vertex of the feasible region along its edges. The number of steps such an algorithm needs in the worst case is at least the combinatorial diameter of the feasible polyhedron: the largest distance, counted in edges, between two of its vertices. Klee and Walkup introduced the two functions that measure this worst case, Δ(d,n)\Delta(d,n)Δ(d,n) for polyhedra and Δb(d,n)\Delta_b(d,n)Δb​(d,n) for bounded polyhedra of dimension ddd with nnn facets, and wrote that Δ(d,n)\Delta(d,n)Δ(d,n) "represents, in a sense, the number of iterations required to solve the 'worst' linear program of nnn inequalities in ddd variables using the 'best' edge-following algorithm" (Klee and Walkup 1967, p. 54).

The Hirsch conjecture, reported by Dantzig in 1963, asserted Δ(d,n)≤n−d\Delta(d,n)\le n-dΔ(d,n)≤n−d. Its diagonal cases Δ(d,2d)≤d\Delta(d,2d)\le dΔ(d,2d)≤d and Δb(d,2d)≤d\Delta_b(d,2d)\le dΔb​(d,2d)≤d are the general and the bounded ddd-step conjectures.

Timeline.

  • 1957–1963: W. M. Hirsch's conjecture, reported in Dantzig's Linear Programming and Extensions (1963, pp. 160, 168), with the claim that it holds for m≤4m\le 4m≤4.
  • Before 1967: Klee determines Δ(3,n)=n−3\Delta(3,n)=n-3Δ(3,n)=n−3 and Δb(3,n)=⌊2n/3⌋−1\Delta_b(3,n)=\lfloor 2n/3\rfloor-1Δb​(3,n)=⌊2n/3⌋−1 and settles Δb(d,n)\Delta_b(d,n)Δb​(d,n) for n≤d+4n\le d+4n≤d+4 (Canad. J. Math. 16 and the papers cited as [9], [12], [13] by Klee and Walkup, p. 55).
  • 1967: Klee and Walkup (Acta Math. 117) prove Δb(5,10)=5\Delta_b(5,10)=5Δb​(5,10)=5, show that Δb(d,2d)≤d\Delta_b(d,2d)\le dΔb​(d,2d)≤d for all ddd is equivalent to the bounded Hirsch conjecture, and disprove the unbounded conjecture with Δ(4,8)=5\Delta(4,8)=5Δ(4,8)=5.
  • 2012: Santos disproves the bounded Hirsch conjecture with a 43-dimensional polytope with 86 facets (Ann. Math. 176). The bounded ddd-step conjecture therefore fails for some ddd, and the smallest failing ddd is unknown; it is at least 6.

Setting

A polyhedron in Rd\mathbb R^dRd is a nonempty set P={x:⟨ai,x⟩≤bi, i=1,…,n}P=\{x:\langle a_i,x\rangle\le b_i,\ i=1,\dots,n\}P={x:⟨ai​,x⟩≤bi​, i=1,…,n}; a polytope is a bounded polyhedron. PPP is a ddd-polyhedron with nnn facets when it has nonempty interior and none of the nnn inequalities is redundant; then the rows are in bijection with the facets, and row iii is tight at vvv exactly when vvv lies on the iii-th facet. The vertices of PPP are its extreme points. Two vertices u≠vu\ne vu=v span an edge when the segment [u,v][u,v][u,v] is an extreme subset of PPP. A path of length lll is a sequence of lll edges [x0,x1],…,[xl−1,xl][x_0,x_1],\dots,[x_{l-1},x_l][x0​,x1​],…,[xl−1​,xl​], and δP(x,y)\delta_P(x,y)δP​(x,y) is the least length of a path from xxx to yyy. Then

Δb(d,n)=max⁡{δP(x,y):P a d-polytope with n facets, x,y vertices of P}.\Delta_b(d,n)=\max\{\delta_P(x,y): P\text{ a }d\text{-polytope with }n\text{ facets},\ x,y\text{ vertices of }P\}.Δb​(d,n)=max{δP​(x,y):P a d-polytope with n facets, x,y vertices of P}.

PPP is simple when every vertex lies on exactly ddd facets. A face is PPP itself or the intersection of PPP with a supporting hyperplane, never ∅\emptyset∅; its dimension is that of its affine hull. A (k1,…,kr)(k_1,\dots,k_r)(k1​,…,kr​)-path from xxx to yyy is a sequence of faces K1,…,KrK_1,\dots,K_rK1​,…,Kr​ with x∈K1x\in K_1x∈K1​, y∈Kry\in K_ry∈Kr​, dim⁡Ki=ki\dim K_i=k_idimKi​=ki​ and Ki∩Ki+1≠∅K_i\cap K_{i+1}\ne\emptysetKi​∩Ki+1​=∅. A ddd-dimensional Dantzig figure (P,x,y)(P,x,y)(P,x,y) is a ddd-polyhedron PPP with 2d2d2d facets and two vertices x,yx,yx,y such that exactly ddd facets are incident to xxx and the other ddd to yyy. A ddd-polytope QQQ has property A when it has between 2d2d2d and 2d+22d+22d+2 facets and the following holds: if its facets are split into two classes X,Y\mathfrak X,\mathfrak YX,Y of at most d+1d+1d+1 facets each, and both sets XXX, YYY of vertices all of whose facets lie in X\mathfrak XX, respectively Y\mathfrak YY, are nonempty, then some vertex of XXX is joined to some vertex of YYY by a path of length at most ddd.

Formalization targets

Goal: 4.3 THEOREM

Δb(5,10)=5.\Delta_b(5,10)=5.Δb​(5,10)=5.

In two halves: every 555-polytope with 101010 facets satisfies δP(x,y)≤5\delta_P(x,y)\le 5δP​(x,y)≤5 for all vertices x,yx,yx,y, and some 555-polytope with 101010 facets has two vertices with δP(x,y)>4\delta_P(x,y)>4δP​(x,y)>4.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. 2.8 THEOREM (bounded part): Δb(d,n)\Delta_b(d,n)Δb​(d,n) is attained by two vertices of a simple ddd-polytope with nnn facets, and for n≥2dn\ge 2dn≥2d by two vertices on no common facet. For n=2dn=2dn=2d this is a bounded simple Dantzig figure.
  2. 3.4 PROPOSITION (a): every simple Dantzig figure admits a (k1,1,k3)(k_1,1,k_3)(k1​,1,k3​)-path for positive k1+1+k3=dk_1+1+k_3=dk1​+1+k3​=d.
  3. 3.1 PROPOSITION: (a) facial paths in all ddd-dimensional simple Dantzig figures, (b) facet-avoiding facial paths in simple ddd-polytopes with 2d+12d+12d+1 facets, and (c) facet-avoiding (1,k1,…,kr)(1,k_1,\dots,k_r)(1,k1​,…,kr​)-paths in bounded (d+1)(d+1)(d+1)-dimensional figures are equivalent.
  4. 3.4 PROPOSITION (b): every bounded simple Dantzig figure admits a (1,k2,1,k4)(1,k_2,1,k_4)(1,k2​,1,k4​)-path for positive 1+k2+1+k4=d1+k_2+1+k_4=d1+k2​+1+k4​=d.
  5. Remark after 3.4: adjacent terms of a facial path in a simple figure merge into their sum.
  6. Remark after 3.4, p. 68: bounded simple Dantzig figures of dimension d≥2d\ge 2d≥2 admit (1,d−2,1)(1,d-2,1)(1,d−2,1)-paths.
  7. 4.1 PROPOSITION: if the middle face QQQ of a (1,d−2,1)(1,d-2,1)(1,d−2,1)-path ([x,x′],Q,[y′,y])([x,x'],Q,[y',y])([x,x′],Q,[y′,y]) has property A, then δP(x,y)≤d\delta_P(x,y)\le dδP​(x,y)≤d.
  8. 4.2 LEMMA: every simple 333-polytope with 666, 777 or 888 facets has property A.

Significance

The result. By the paper's reductions, Δb(d,2d)≤d\Delta_b(d,2d)\le dΔb​(d,2d)≤d for a given ddd is equivalent to the bounded Hirsch bound Δb(d′,d′+d)≤d\Delta_b(d',d'+d)\le dΔb​(d′,d′+d)≤d for every d′d'd′. So 4.3 gives Δb(d,n)≤n−d\Delta_b(d,n)\le n-dΔb​(d,n)≤n−d for all n≤d+5n\le d+5n≤d+5, which is the column n−d=5n-d=5n−d=5 of the paper's Fig. 2. Since Santos's counterexample, the smallest ddd with Δb(d,2d)>d\Delta_b(d,2d)>dΔb​(d,2d)>d is a well-defined open number. This theorem was the first to show it is at least 666; later computer-assisted work treated further small cases, including the bounded 666-step case (Bremner and Schewe 2011). Santos's construction starts from exactly the reduction to Dantzig figures (the "strong ddd-step theorem" for spindles) that this paper uses.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved since 1967; no machine-checked proof of Δb(5,10)=5\Delta_b(5,10)=5Δb​(5,10)=5 exists. The platform has the Hirsch bound in dimension ≤3\le 3≤3 (Hirsch.dimension_three_bound, Hirsch.klee_three_dimensional_bound), the Klee–Walkup wedge reduction at the level of inequality descriptions (Hirsch.balanced_hpoly_transfer), products (Hirsch.diamLE_prod) and Santos's counterexample. The mission adds the facial-path calculus of §3 and the property-A argument of §4. Both are reusable in any later formal treatment of small ddd-step cases.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, a direct case analysis of 555-polytopes with 101010 facets, is out of reach: there are far too many combinatorial types, and nothing bounds the search. The paper first reduces to simple polytopes, and the reduction itself (2.8) rests on a perturbation lemma (2.6) whose proof is deferred to a separate paper by Walkup: simplicity must be gained without shrinking any distance. The facial-path results then pass between bounded and unbounded figures through truncation and the wedge (3.1), and a statement about all unbounded ddd-dimensional figures is what yields one about bounded (d+1)(d+1)(d+1)-dimensional ones. Finally the (d−2)(d-2)(d−2)-face QQQ must be shown to have property A. That property fails for some simple polytopes of classes (4,10)(4,10)(4,10) and (5,11)(5,11)(5,11) (p. 69), so 4.2 depends on the dimension being 333 and on the facet count being at most 888. Its proof uses Euler's relation and Balinski's theorem that the graph of a 333-polytope is 333-connected (posed on the platform as Balinski61.Connectivity.disjoint_paths_between_vertices).

Formalization scope

Polyhedra are Hirsch.Hpoly a b with a : Fin n → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); edges and walks are Hirsch.Adj and Hirsch.Reach from the published Hirsch_model and Hirsch_walk. The conventions are:

  • "ddd-polyhedron with nnn facets" is a facet presentation: nonempty interior and no redundant row. The rows are exactly the facets; a statement over arbitrary inequality systems would count redundant rows as facets and is not the paper's.
  • δP(x,y)≤L\delta_P(x,y)\le LδP​(x,y)≤L is Hirsch.Reach P L x y, a walk of LLL steps that may stand still. Δb(5,10)=5\Delta_b(5,10)=5Δb​(5,10)=5 is an upper bound for every polytope plus a witness, never a supremum of reals. A version proving only the upper bound, or only the lower bound, is not the goal.
  • Simple means pointed with exactly ddd tight rows at every vertex. On a facet presentation this is equivalent to the paper's "exactly ddd edges at each vertex".
  • Faces are nonempty sets {x∈P:⟨ai,x⟩=bi, i∈I}\{x\in P:\langle a_i,x\rangle=b_i,\ i\in I\}{x∈P:⟨ai​,x⟩=bi​, i∈I}, and dimension is the dimension of the affine span. A Dantzig figure has Fin (2 * d) rows.
  • Property A is defined for a bounded face QQQ of dimension mmm: its facets are the (m−1)(m-1)(m−1)-faces of PPP inside QQQ, and the path runs in QQQ. This keeps 4.1, where QQQ is a (d−2)(d-2)(d−2)-face of a polytope in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, and 4.2, where Q=PQ=PQ=P, under one notion. Facet counts use Set.encard.
  • Explicit readings: 2.8's "Δb\Delta_bΔb​ can be realized as the distance … of a simple polytope" is stated polytope by polytope (δP(u,v)≤δP′(x,y)\delta_P(u,v)\le\delta_{P'}(x,y)δP​(u,v)≤δP′​(x,y)). Only the Δb\Delta_bΔb​ sentences of 2.8 are stated. 3.4's joint hypothesis on k1,…,k4k_1,\dots,k_4k1​,…,k4​ is split by part. The merging remark carries the needed hypothesis ki+ki+1≤dk_i+k_{i+1}\le dki​+ki+1​≤d. The printed "3.5 implies" on p. 67 is read as 3.4.

The paper cites two inputs without proving them: Lemma 2.6 (Walkup's simple perturbation) and Balinski's theorem. A complete development needs face lattices of H-polyhedra, wedges and truncations, and the planar-graph arguments of 4.2. The face and facial-path layer is reusable for the companion mission on Δ(4,8)=5\Delta(4,8)=5Δ(4,8)=5 and for other diameter problems. Contributions are welcome at every milestone, including proofs of 2.6.

Selected references

  • V. Klee and D. W. Walkup, The d-step conjecture for polyhedra of dimension d < 6, Acta Mathematica 117 (1967), 53–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02395040
  • G. B. Dantzig, Linear Programming and Extensions, Princeton University Press, 1963.
  • V. Klee, Diameters of polyhedral graphs, Canadian Journal of Mathematics 16 (1964), 602–614. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1964-058-5
  • M. L. Balinski, On the graph structure of convex polyhedra in n-space, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 11 (1961), 431–434. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1961.11.431
  • F. Santos, A counterexample to the Hirsch conjecture, Annals of Mathematics 176 (2012), 383–412. https://doi.org/10.4007/annals.2012.176.1.7
  • D. Bremner and L. Schewe, Edge-graph diameter bounds for convex polytopes with few facets, Experimental Mathematics 20 (2011), 229–237. https://doi.org/10.1080/10586458.2011.564966
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Algorithmic Game TheoryLinear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Bimatrix Equilibrium Points and Mathematical Programming: If Z Is Non-Degenerate and uᵀMu ≥ 0, uᵀMu = 0 ⇒ Mu + Mᵀu = 0 for All u ≥ 0, a Non-Empty Z Has an Equilibrium PointResearch Paper

Motivation

The linear complementarity problem asks, for a real square matrix MMM of order nnn and a vector q∈Rnq\in\mathbb R^nq∈Rn, for a vector zzz with

z≥0,w=Mz−q≥0,zTw=0.z\ge 0,\qquad w=Mz-q\ge 0,\qquad z^{\mathsf T}w=0 .z≥0,w=Mz−q≥0,zTw=0.

It is the common form of the Kuhn–Tucker conditions of linear and convex quadratic programs and of the equilibrium conditions of two-person non-zero-sum (bimatrix) games. In 1964 Lemke and Howson gave a constructive existence proof for equilibrium points of bimatrix games by following a path of adjacent extreme points of a polyhedron (Lemke–Howson 1964). In 1965 Lemke adapted that path-following technique to the general problem above, under a condition on MMM that covers the positive semidefinite case treated by Dantzig and Cottle and the case M>0M>0M>0 (Lemke 1965). The resulting procedure, now called Lemke's algorithm or complementary pivoting, became a standard method for linear complementarity problems and a template for later path-following existence proofs (Cottle, Pang, Stone 1992).

Timeline:

  • 1964: Lemke and Howson, adjacent-extreme-point path for bimatrix games.
  • 1965: Lemke, existence for matrices satisfying conditions (i)–(ii) below (the goal of this mission), under a non-degeneracy assumption, by an augmented path with an artificial variable z0z_0z0​.
  • Later literature names matrices with (i)–(ii) copositive-plus, and removes non-degeneracy by lexicographic perturbation.

Setting

Fix a finite index set of size nnn, a real n×nn\times nn×n matrix MMM and q∈Rnq\in\mathbb R^nq∈Rn. Inequalities between vectors are componentwise and eee is the all-ones vector.

  • The set Z={z∈Rn:z≥0, w=Mz−q≥0}Z=\{z\in\mathbb R^n : z\ge 0,\ w=Mz-q\ge 0\}Z={z∈Rn:z≥0, w=Mz−q≥0}; www is always the function Mz−qMz-qMz−q of zzz.
  • An equilibrium point is a point z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z with zTw=0z^{\mathsf T}w=0zTw=0; SSS is the set of them.
  • For any z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn, the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z) consists of the columns of (MT,I)(M^{\mathsf T},I)(MT,I) that are kept when one deletes the iii-th column of MTM^{\mathsf T}MT whenever wi≠0w_i\ne 0wi​=0 and the iii-th column of III whenever zi≠0z_i\ne0zi​=0.
  • An extreme point of ZZZ is a point z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z with rank⁡N(z)=n\operatorname{rank}N(z)=nrankN(z)=n; zzz lies on an open edge if z∈Zz\in Zz∈Z and rank⁡N(z)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z)=n-1rankN(z)=n−1. An open edge is the set of points of ZZZ sharing the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z) of such a point; a ray is an open edge with exactly one end-point.
  • ZZZ is non-degenerate if for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn the columns of N(z)N(z)N(z) are linearly independent.
  • For an index sss, Zs={z∈Z:zTw=zsws}Z_s=\{z\in Z : z^{\mathsf T}w=z_sw_s\}Zs​={z∈Z:zTw=zs​ws​}. An adjacency path is a non-empty connected class of closed edges of ZZZ no three of which meet; its end-points are the extreme points lying on exactly one of its edges.
  • The augmented sets: Z∗={(z,z0):z≥0, z0≥0, Mz+z0e−q≥0}Z^*=\{(z,z_0) : z\ge0,\ z_0\ge0,\ Mz+z_0e-q\ge0\}Z∗={(z,z0​):z≥0, z0​≥0, Mz+z0​e−q≥0}, its subset Z0∗Z_0^*Z0∗​ where zTw=0z^{\mathsf T}w=0zTw=0, and, for a number kkk, Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, the set of the form above for the bordered data (Me−eT0)\begin{pmatrix}M&e\\-e^{\mathsf T}&0\end{pmatrix}(M−eT​e0​), (q−k)\begin{pmatrix}q\\-k\end{pmatrix}(q−k​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 7)

Suppose ZZZ is non-degenerate and that for every u≥0u\ge0u≥0

(i) uTMu≥0,(ii) uTMu=0 ⟹ Mu+MTu=0.\text{(i)}\ u^{\mathsf T}Mu\ge 0,\qquad \text{(ii)}\ u^{\mathsf T}Mu=0\ \Longrightarrow\ Mu+M^{\mathsf T}u=0 .(i) uTMu≥0,(ii) uTMu=0 ⟹ Mu+MTu=0.

Then

Z≠∅ ⟹ ∃z∈Z, zT(Mz−q)=0.Z\ne\emptyset\ \Longrightarrow\ \exists z\in Z,\ z^{\mathsf T}(Mz-q)=0 .Z=∅ ⟹ ∃z∈Z, zT(Mz−q)=0.

Milestones, in the order the paper's proof uses them

  1. Theorem 1 (p. 3): for non-degenerate ZZZ, ZsZ_sZs​ is empty or a disjoint union of adjacency paths whose end-points are exactly the equilibrium points.
  2. Lemma 2 (p. 4): Z=∅Z=\emptysetZ=∅ iff some u≥0u\ge0u≥0 has MTu≤0M^{\mathsf T}u\le0MTu≤0, uTq>0u^{\mathsf T}q>0uTq>0.
  3. Theorem 2 (p. 4): if some ZsZ_sZs​ contains precisely one ray of a non-degenerate ZZZ, the number of equilibrium points is odd.
  4. p. 6: for kkk chosen as in (12), the starting ray E0∗E_0^*E0∗​ (z=0z=0z=0) is a ray of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ inside Z0∗∗Z_0^{**}Z0∗∗​, and it is the only one.
  5. Lemma 2 (p. 6): Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ has an equilibrium point.
  6. Lemma 3 (p. 7): a ray (zˉ+θu,zˉ0+θu0)(\bar z+\theta u,\bar z_0+\theta u_0)(zˉ+θu,zˉ0​+θu0​) of Z∗Z^*Z∗ in Z0∗Z_0^*Z0∗​ with eTu=1e^{\mathsf T}u=1eTu=1 satisfies uTMu+u0=0u^{\mathsf T}Mu+u_0=0uTMu+u0​=0.
  7. (22)–(25) (pp. 7–8): under (i)–(ii) such a ray has zˉ0=0\bar z_0=0zˉ0​=0 and zˉ\bar zzˉ an equilibrium point of ZZZ, or zˉ0>0\bar z_0>0zˉ0​>0 and Z=∅Z=\emptysetZ=∅.

Companion results

The Corollary (p. 5: q=eq=eq=e, M>0M>0M>0 gives an odd number of equilibrium points), Theorem 3 (p. 5: if zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz, at most one equilibrium point) and Theorem 5 (p. 8: if moreover Z≠∅Z\ne\emptysetZ=∅, ZZZ has at least nnn rays).

Significance

Theorem 4 is an existence theorem for a class of linear complementarity problems that contains convex quadratic programming (the case zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz) and strictly positive matrices, and its proof is an algorithm: the path followed is the sequence of pivots of Lemke's method. The parity statements (Theorem 2, the Corollary) are an early instance of the path-following parity arguments later abstracted in the complexity class PPAD (Papadimitriou 1994).

The theorem is classical and proved. To our knowledge neither Lemke's theorem nor the polyhedral path machinery of Theorems 1–2 has a machine-checked proof in Lean or Mathlib. This mission produces the vocabulary of non-degenerate complementarity polyhedra (the matrix N(z)N(z)N(z), open edges, rays, adjacency paths), the parity theorem, and the existence theorem itself; the Farkas-type Lemma 2 (p. 4) is already available on the platform.

Difficulty

The algebraic part (Lemma 3 and (22)–(25)) is short. The difficulty is combinatorial-geometric: Theorem 1 requires that, under non-degeneracy, every extreme point of ZZZ has exactly nnn incident edges, that each point of ZsZ_sZs​ is an extreme point or lies on an open edge, and that the edges contained in ZsZ_sZs​ form paths whose end-points are exactly the equilibrium points; the parity of Theorem 2 then needs finiteness of the set of extreme points. None of this polyhedral structure (edges as zero-pattern classes, their closures and end-points) is in Mathlib. Moreover, the printed proof of Theorem 4 applies Theorem 2 to Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, whose non-degeneracy the paper obtains from an informal perturbation remark, and it sketches the step from the end of the augmented path to a ray of Z∗Z^*Z∗; a complete proof of the goal must supply these steps or take another route.

Formalization scope

  • Vectors are functions from a finite index type ι\iotaι to R\mathbb RR (n=∣ι∣n=|\iota|n=∣ι∣; Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn is a special case); the bordered system lives on ι⊕{∗}\iota\oplus\{\ast\}ι⊕{∗}. www is always Mz−qMz-qMz−q, never a free variable.
  • N(z)N(z)N(z) is the indexed family of its columns, rank⁡N(z)\operatorname{rank}N(z)rankN(z) the dimension of their span; "rank⁡N(z)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z)=n-1rankN(z)=n−1" is written rank⁡N(z)+1=n\operatorname{rank}N(z)+1=nrankN(z)+1=n.
  • Non-degeneracy (Def. 3) is linear independence of the columns of N(z)N(z)N(z) for every z∈Rnz\in\mathbb R^nz∈Rn. The phrase "(but not all)" is read as excluding only the empty matrix; the other reading differs only when q=0q=0q=0, and the formal definition is then the stronger hypothesis.
  • An open edge is the set of points of ZZZ with the zero pattern of a point z0z_0z0​ with rank⁡N(z0)=n−1\operatorname{rank}N(z_0)=n-1rankN(z0​)=n−1; closed edges are closures; end-points of an open edge EEE are the points of E‾∖E\overline E\setminus EE∖E; a ray has exactly one. Adjacency paths are classes of closed edges.
  • Conditions (i)–(ii) are quantified over u≥0u\ge0u≥0 only. "Non-negative definite" (Theorems 3, 5) is zTMz≥0z^{\mathsf T}Mz\ge0zTMz≥0 for all zzz, with no symmetry assumed.
  • "An odd number" is finiteness plus odd cardinality; "at least nnn rays" counts rays as an extended natural number; "at most one" is a subsingleton.
  • Equilibrium points include membership in ZZZ: zT(Mz−q)=0z^{\mathsf T}(Mz-q)=0zT(Mz−q)=0 alone holds at z=0z=0z=0 and would make the goal trivial. The goal mentions neither Z∗Z^*Z∗, Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗, kkk, rays nor paths; in particular non-degeneracy of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ is not a hypothesis of the goal.
  • Deviations: Lemma 2 (p. 6) assumes non-degeneracy of Z∗∗Z^{**}Z∗∗ (Def. 3 does not define it for the non-square Z∗Z^*Z∗); milestone 4 holds for every kkk without non-degeneracy; Lemma 3 and (22)–(25) parametrize the ray as in (15) without requiring zˉ∗\bar z^*zˉ∗ to be an extreme point, which makes them stronger.

Contributions welcome: the polyhedral lemmas for non-degenerate ZZZ (extreme points have nnn edges, finitely many extreme points), the parity argument, and any complete route to Theorem 4.

Selected references

  • C. E. Lemke, Bimatrix Equilibrium Points and Mathematical Programming, Management Science 11(7):681–689, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.7.681 (cited from the HAL deposit hal-01885823v1)
  • C. E. Lemke, J. T. Howson, Equilibrium Points of Bimatrix Games, J. SIAM 12(2):413–423, 1964. https://doi.org/10.1137/0112033
  • R. W. Cottle, J.-S. Pang, R. E. Stone, The Linear Complementarity Problem, Academic Press 1992; SIAM Classics 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719000
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, On the complexity of the parity argument and other inefficient proofs of existence, J. Computer and System Sciences 48(3):498–532, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-0000(05)80063-7
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

One-Processor Scheduling with Symmetric Earliness and Tardiness Penalties 1: Minimizing the Total Discrepancy from Preferred Times Is NP-CompleteResearch Paper

Motivation

Scheduling with earliness and tardiness penalties asks for schedules in which a job finishing early is as undesirable as a job finishing late. The model fits production planned for just-in-time delivery, where finished goods held before their due date cost money, and sequences of experiments tied to fixed external events. It departs from classical scheduling, in which finishing early is never penalized.

Garey, Tarjan and Wilfong (Math. Oper. Res. 13 (1988) 330–348) study the symmetric version on one processor: each task has a preferred starting time, and the penalty is the absolute deviation from it. Their §2.1 settles the complexity of the most natural objective, the sum of these deviations, by proving it NP-complete. The result explains why the rest of their paper, and much of the later literature, turns to special cases that can be solved efficiently: a fixed task order, equal task lengths, or the maximum deviation instead of the sum.

A short history of the model:

  • Kanet (1981) minimized total absolute deviation from a common due date that is large enough not to constrain the schedule, by a sorting rule. The special case in the middle of §2.1 is the midtime version of this problem.
  • Garey, Tarjan and Wilfong (1988) proved the problem with arbitrary preferred times NP-complete (THEOREM 1, this mission), and gave an O(Nlog⁡N)O(N\log N)O(NlogN) algorithm for a fixed task order.
  • Hall, Kubiak and Sethi (1991) proved that the common-due-date problem becomes NP-hard when the due date is restrictive. The reduction of THEOREM 1 already uses a common preferred midtime that is not large, together with one extra task that pins the right end.

Setting

There are NNN tasks T1,…,TNT_1,\dots,T_NT1​,…,TN​. Task TiT_iTi​ has a length lil_ili​ and a preferred midtime MiM_iMi​. A schedule SSS assigns every task a starting time si≥0s_i\ge0si​≥0 such that no two tasks overlap on the single processor: for i≠ji\ne ji=j, either si+li≤sjs_i+l_i\le s_jsi​+li​≤sj​ or sj+lj≤sis_j+l_j\le s_isj​+lj​≤si​. Idle time is allowed. The actual midtime of TiT_iTi​ is mi(S)=si+li/2m_i(S)=s_i+l_i/2mi​(S)=si​+li​/2, and the total discrepancy of SSS is

cost(S)=∑i=1N∣mi(S)−Mi∣.\mathrm{cost}(S)=\sum_{i=1}^N |m_i(S)-M_i| .cost(S)=i=1∑N​∣mi​(S)−Mi​∣.

The paper works with midtimes because the special case below is then symmetric. Preferred midtimes and preferred starting times aia_iai​ are interchangeable through ai=Mi−li/2a_i=M_i-l_i/2ai​=Mi​−li​/2.

Total discrepancy (the decision problem). Given N,k∈Z+N,k\in\mathbb Z^+N,k∈Z+ and Mi,li∈Z+M_i,l_i\in\mathbb Z^+Mi​,li​∈Z+, is there a schedule with cost(S)≤k\mathrm{cost}(S)\le kcost(S)≤k?

Even-odd partition. Given positive integers x1<x2<⋯<x2nx_1<x_2<\dots<x_{2n}x1​<x2​<⋯<x2n​, can they be split into two sets of equal sum so that each set contains exactly one of x2i−1,x2ix_{2i-1},x_{2i}x2i−1​,x2i​ for every iii?

The special case. For tasks T0,…,T2nT_0,\dots,T_{2n}T0​,…,T2n​ with 0<l0<l1<⋯<l2n0<l_0<l_1<\dots<l_{2n}0<l0​<l1​<⋯<l2n​ and one common preferred midtime M>∑iliM>\sum_i l_iM>∑i​li​, write A(S)={Ti:mi(S)<M}A(S)=\{T_i: m_i(S)<M\}A(S)={Ti​:mi​(S)<M} and B(S)={Ti:mi(S)>M}B(S)=\{T_i:m_i(S)>M\}B(S)={Ti​:mi​(S)>M}. A schedule is ordered if, on each side of MMM, shorter tasks lie nearer to MMM. The bracket [An,…,A1,T0@M,B1,…,Bn][A_n,\dots,A_1,T_0@M,B_1,\dots,B_n][An​,…,A1​,T0​@M,B1​,…,Bn​] is the schedule that puts T0T_0T0​ at midtime MMM and packs the listed tasks against it in the listed order.

Formalization targets

Goal: THEOREM 1

Partition is NP-complete ⟹ Total discrepancy is NP-complete.\text{Partition is NP-complete}\ \Longrightarrow\ \text{Total discrepancy is NP-complete.}Partition is NP-complete ⟹ Total discrepancy is NP-complete.

The hypothesis is the one result the paper imports (Garey and Johnson, 1979). The conclusion includes membership in NP and polynomial-time many-one reductions from every NP language, with Turing machines as the model of computation.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Even-odd partition is in NP; the instance x1=1x_1=1x1​=1, x2i=x2i−1+yix_{2i}=x_{2i-1}+y_ix2i​=x2i−1​+yi​, x2i+1=x2i+1x_{2i+1}=x_{2i}+1x2i+1​=x2i​+1 built from a Partition instance YYY is a yes-instance if and only if YYY is; and LEMMA 1, even-odd partition is NP-complete.
  2. The special case: a minimum cost schedule has no gaps and is ordered; LEMMA 2 (some mi(S)=Mm_i(S)=Mmi​(S)=M), LEMMA 3 (∣A(S)∣=∣B(S)∣|A(S)|=|B(S)|∣A(S)∣=∣B(S)∣), LEMMA 4 (m0(S)=Mm_0(S)=Mm0​(S)=M), LEMMA 5 (swapping AiA_iAi​ and BiB_iBi​ in a bracket keeps the cost), LEMMA 6 ({Ai,Bi}={T2i,T2i−1}\{A_i,B_i\}=\{T_{2i},T_{2i-1}\}{Ai​,Bi​}={T2i​,T2i−1​} in a minimum cost bracket), and the minimum cost
k=∑i=1n(l2i+l2i−1)(n−i+12)+l0 n.k=\sum_{i=1}^n(l_{2i}+l_{2i-1})\left(n-i+\tfrac12\right)+l_0\,n .k=i=1∑n​(l2i​+l2i−1​)(n−i+21​)+l0​n.
  1. At the midtime M=12∑i=02nliM=\frac12\sum_{i=0}^{2n}l_iM=21​∑i=02n​li​ used in the reduction, every schedule of T0,…,T2nT_0,\dots,T_{2n}T0​,…,T2n​ costs at least kkk; equality forces the ordered, gap-free form in item 2.
  2. The reduction: the instance D with l0=x1−1l_0=x_1-1l0​=x1​−1, li=xil_i=x_ili​=xi​, l2n+1=2l_{2n+1}=2l2n+1​=2, Mj=M=∑i≤2nli/2M_j=M=\sum_{i\le 2n}l_i/2Mj​=M=∑i≤2n​li​/2, M2n+1=2M+1M_{2n+1}=2M+1M2n+1​=2M+1 has a schedule of cost at most kkk if and only if XXX has an even-odd partition. Total discrepancy is in NP.

Significance

THEOREM 1 is the hardness boundary for one-processor scheduling with symmetric earliness–tardiness penalties and arbitrary preferred times. It is the reason exact algorithms for this objective are enumerative, and the reason polynomial results are sought under extra structure, such as the fixed-order algorithm of the same paper. The special-case lemmas characterize every optimal schedule for a common, unrestrictive midtime, not just one of them: shortest task centered at MMM, the iii-th pair of lengths in the iii-th positions on either side, either member on either side. This characterization holds independently of the reduction.

The result has been proved since 1988, and no machine-checked version of it is known to us. A formalization adds three things. First, the parts the paper calls "straightforward" or "a simple exercise", membership of both problems in NP. Second, the two places where the published argument is imprecise. The instance D has half-integer midtimes and threshold although the decision problem asks for integers, so a correct reduction must rescale. And the special-case lemmas are proved for a large midtime but applied with M=∑ili/2M=\sum_i l_i/2M=∑i​li​/2, so they must be restated for every MMM. Third, a reusable formal treatment of absolute-deviation scheduling objectives and of reductions between number problems written in binary.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the step from the special case to the instance D. The lemmas on pp. 333–336 assume the common midtime is large, so that the constraint si≥0s_i\ge0si​≥0 never binds. In D the midtime is M=∑i=02nli/2M=\sum_{i=0}^{2n}l_i/2M=∑i=02n​li​/2, exactly half the total length, and the reduction works because the constraint binds. The tasks before MMM must fit in [0,M−l0/2][0,M-l_0/2][0,M−l0​/2], and the extra task T2n+1T_{2n+1}T2n+1​ must sit at [2M,2M+2][2M,2M+2][2M,2M+2]. Together these force the two sides to have equal total length. A proof that only cites the large-MMM lemmas proves nothing about D. Conversely, dropping si≥0s_i\ge 0si​≥0 makes the reduction false: put the shorter element of every pair after MMM.

The other obstacle is the complexity bookkeeping. NP-completeness here means Turing machines, binary codes, and polynomial bounds, and a full proof must compute D from the code of XXX, double the times to clear the half-integers, and certify membership in NP for a problem whose schedules have real starting times. The certificate cannot be the real starting times themselves.

Formalization scope

  • Everything is real-valued except the instance codes. Schedules have real starting times si≥0s_i\ge0si​≥0, and integer data are cast to R\mathbb RR. Restricting to integer starting times would be a different problem and is not what is stated.
  • Nonnegative starting times are a standing assumption. The paper uses them ("scheduled between 0 and M−l0/2M-l_0/2M−l0​/2", p. 336) without writing them into the model. Nonoverlap is "one task finishes before the other starts", the reading of "intersect only at their endpoints".
  • Tasks are indexed by Fin N from 000. In the special case TiT_iTi​ is index iii, and the paper's T2i−1,T2iT_{2i-1},T_{2i}T2i−1​,T2i​ (1≤i≤n1\le i\le n1≤i≤n) are the indices 2k+1,2k+22k+1,2k+22k+1,2k+2 for k=i−1k=i-1k=i−1.
  • Languages use the published CookPvsNP_defs (Cook's one-tape Turing machines, NP, NPComplete) and the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (four-letter alphabet and binary codes). This mission defines positivePartitionLang by restricting the imported equal-sum predicate to nonempty lists of positive integers, as on p. 333. Only codes of well-formed instances belong to the even-odd and total discrepancy languages.
  • The goal is not the combinatorial equivalence of milestone 4. It states NP-completeness, so it contains the polynomial-time computation of the reduction and membership in NP. Taking NPComplete evenOddLang as the hypothesis instead would drop LEMMA 1 and is not what is asked.
  • Running times of the algorithms of §2.2–§2.4 are out of scope for this mission, as are all results after §2.1.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on Turing-machine computability of arithmetic on binary codes, which the two membership results and both reductions need.

Selected references

  • M. R. Garey, R. E. Tarjan, G. T. Wilfong, One-Processor Scheduling with Symmetric Earliness and Tardiness Penalties, Mathematics of Operations Research 13(2):330–348, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.13.2.330
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W. H. Freeman, 1979.
  • J. J. Kanet, Minimizing the average deviation of job completion times about a common due date, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 28(4):643–651, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800280411
  • N. G. Hall, W. Kubiak, S. P. Sethi, Earliness–tardiness scheduling problems, II: Deviation of completion times about a restrictive common due date, Operations Research 39(5):847–856, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.39.5.847
  • S. Cook, The P versus NP problem, Clay Mathematics Institute Millennium Problems, 2000. https://www.claymath.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pvsnp.pdf
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Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 1: Markdown Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Falls Below a Strictly Increasing Threshold x_nResearch Paper

Why the timing of a markdown matters

A seller with limited stock can charge a high price while demand is strong and lower the price before the selling season ends. The timing depends on how many units remain: a markdown that is sensible with ample stock may be premature when only one unit is left. Feng and Gallego studied this decision when each price generates a Poisson demand stream and only one price change is allowed. Their 1995 paper proves that the optimal decision has a threshold in remaining time for every inventory level. This mission formalizes their markdown theorem, including its value-function representation, rather than just the existence of a switching rule.

The model is a finite-inventory revenue problem, relevant when an unsold unit loses its value at the end of a season. It is also a continuous-time stopping problem: the seller observes actual sales and may react to them. A fixed calendar date for the markdown cannot describe all of those decisions. The paper treats the markdown case separately from the markup case, because the order of prices, arrival rates and revenue rates reverses the behavior of the switching boundary. The present mission concerns the markdown case alone.

Prices, demand, and admissible switches

Let n≥1n\ge1n≥1 be the initial stock and t≥0t\ge0t≥0 the time to go. The seller first charges price p1p_1p1​ and may change once to a lower price p2p_2p2​. Demands at the two prices are independent Poisson counts with positive rates λ1\lambda_1λ1​ and λ2\lambda_2λ2​. A lower price produces more arrivals, so p2<p1p_2<p_1p2​<p1​ and λ1<λ2\lambda_1<\lambda_2λ1​<λ2​. Feng and Gallego also assume that lowering the price increases the revenue rate: p1λ1<p2λ2p_1\lambda_1<p_2\lambda_2p1​λ1​<p2​λ2​. There is no salvage payment for inventory left when time expires. These conventions come from §2 and the case split on pp. 1375–1376.

Write N1(s)N_1(s)N1​(s) for the observed sales count at the initial price by time sss. If the price changes at deterministic time s∈[0,t]s\in[0,t]s∈[0,t], let J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s) be the expected total revenue. The count after the change is independent of N1(s)N_1(s)N1​(s), and their sum has Poisson mean λ1s+λ2(t−s)\lambda_1s+\lambda_2(t-s)λ1​s+λ2​(t−s). The optimal value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) allows the switch time τ\tauτ to depend on the counts observed so far. An admissible τ\tauτ lies between zero and ttt, is a stopping time for the history of N1N_1N1​, and occurs before stock is exhausted almost surely. At s=0s=0s=0, J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0) is the revenue from charging p2p_2p2​ immediately. The paper defines these quantities in §3, pp. 1377–1379.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 1, p. 1380. It asserts a strictly increasing sequence x1<x2<⋯x_1<x_2<\cdotsx1​<x2​<⋯ of inventory-dependent thresholds. When t≤xnt\le x_nt≤xn​, switching immediately earns the optimal value; when t>xnt>x_nt>xn​, a correction F(n,t)F(n,t)F(n,t) is added:

J(n,t)={J(n,t;0),t≤xn,J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),t>xn.J(n,t)=\begin{cases} J(n,t;0),&t\le x_n,\\ J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),&t>x_n. \end{cases}J(n,t)={J(n,t;0),J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),​t≤xn​,t>xn​.​

The theorem specifies the correction, rather than leaving it as an arbitrary difference of values. It starts with F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, set L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t), where GGG is the Poisson-tail expression from §4.1. The threshold xnx_nxn​ is the first nonnegative zero of L(n,⋅)L(n,\cdot)L(n,⋅). A function H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅) satisfies ∂tH=−λ1H+L\partial_tH=-\lambda_1H+L∂t​H=−λ1​H+L for positive time and H(n,xn)=0H(n,x_n)=0H(n,xn​)=0; FFF is zero below xnx_nxn​ and equals HHH at and above it. If yny_nyn​ is the first zero of G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅), the theorem also gives x1=y1x_1=y_1x1​=y1​ and xn<ynx_n<y_nxn​<yn​ for n>1n>1n>1.

Three supporting targets match the source's attack path. Equation (17) differentiates immediate-switch revenue. Lemma 2 gives the zeros and one sign change of GGG in the markdown case. Lemma 1 identifies a value function through differential inequalities and its stopping payoff. Each is recorded with its page-level statement in the milestone list.

What the result provides

The threshold sequence turns an adaptive stopping problem into a state rule: inspect remaining inventory and time to go, then compare time with the corresponding threshold. The value representation supplies the expected-revenue quantity on both sides of that comparison. Strict increase means a larger stock requires a larger remaining-time threshold before charging the higher initial price is worthwhile. These are the conclusions of Theorem 1, already proved in the paper.

The work here is a Lean statement and eventual machine-checked proof of that known result. The current theorem items are open proof targets. Formalizing the model gives reusable Poisson-tail revenue expressions and a continuous-time stopping-value interface; Lemma 1 can also serve other Poisson-driven stopping problems once proved. A checked proof would establish that the threshold representation and the optimal stopping value agree under the stated assumptions, including boundary cases that informal notation leaves implicit.

Where the mathematics is difficult

The obvious comparison of two fixed switching times misses the information contained in the sales path. The switch decision can change after each observed arrival, while the threshold for inventory nnn depends on the correction at stock n−1n-1n−1. Showing that every such comparison is organized by one increasing threshold requires more than differentiating the fixed-switch revenue. The paper's appendix handles the interaction between the sign of GGG, the recursive correction, and the stopping-value verification; these are distinct formal targets pp. 1387–1388.

The printed verification lemma and one word of Lemma 2 require care. Lemma 1 omits boundary and regularity conditions needed by its proof. Lemma 2 calls the zero sequence “bounded,” although its thresholds tend to infinity; the usable claim is that they stay above a positive lower bound. The formal statements expose these corrections and retain the rest of the source's conclusions.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the first demand stream by a counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. The terminal revenue after a switch is expressed using the Poisson law of the sum of the two independent counts. The stopping class records the count-generated history, bounds the stopping time by the horizon, and requires stock to remain at stopping almost surely. Its expected payoff uses the number sold before stopping and the immediate-switch value for the unsold stock. Prices and rates are positive, the markdown ordering and revenue-rate inequality are explicit, and the probability measure is named explicitly even though the exponential-interarrival law already entails it.

The paper uses nonnegative real time, inventories indexed by positive integers, and zero salvage. Lean uses a real supremum for the value and a real infimum for each threshold; the admissible payoff is bounded and measurable, and every threshold-defining zero set is asserted nonempty. The ODE is expressed with an actual derivative at positive time. The auxiliary Poisson-tail definition maps a negative mean to zero, but all model applications have nonnegative means. The threshold construction, its ODE, and the equality with the stopping value are all conclusions of the goal, so none is an assumed solution.

For Lemma 1, the formal target adds the initial-time and zero-stock boundary values, domination of terminal revenue, and local Lipschitz regularity in time. The first three conditions are used in the source's own proof or reformulation; local Lipschitz regularity makes its integral calculation valid. Contributions may establish the Poisson-tail calculus, the sign and threshold results, the verification theorem, or the complete markdown theorem. The referenced arrival-process definition is shared infrastructure; the two-price revenue and stopping model are specific to this paper.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 7: Makespan Reduces to Total Completion Time on Identical Machines with Precedence ConstraintsResearch Paper

Motivation

Scheduling jobs on parallel machines under precedence constraints is the core model of project and parallel-processing scheduling: a job may start only after its predecessors have finished. Two criteria dominate the literature, the makespan Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ (when does the last job finish?) and the total completion time ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ (how long do jobs wait on average?). Knowing that one criterion is at least as hard as the other lets a hardness proof for one transfer to the other without a new reduction from a combinatorial problem.

Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan's report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; later in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) collected the complexity status of the standard scheduling problems and stated a set of elementary reductions among them as Theorem 1. Part (l) reduces makespan to total completion time for identical machines with precedence constraints and bounded processing times.

Timeline.

  • 1971–1972: Cook (doi:10.1145/800157.805047) and Karp (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9) introduce NP-completeness and polynomial reducibility.
  • 1975: Ullman (doi:10.1016/S0022-0000(75)80008-0) proves that the makespan problems n∣2∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤2∣Cmax⁡n|2|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le 2|C_{\max}n∣2∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤2∣Cmax​ and n∣m∣I,prec,pj1=1∣Cmax⁡n|m|I,\mathit{prec},p_{j1}=1|C_{\max}n∣m∣I,prec,pj1​=1∣Cmax​ are NP-complete, by reductions from 3-SATISFIABILITY.
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan state Theorem 1(l); their Table III (p. 13) applies it to Ullman's two problems and concludes that the corresponding total completion time problems are NP-complete.

Setting

An instance has nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​, a number m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 of identical machines, a processing time pjp_jpj​ for each job, and a precedence relation <<< on the jobs: Jj<JkJ_j < J_kJj​<Jk​ means that JkJ_kJk​ may start only after JjJ_jJj​ has completed. Each job is one operation, processed without interruption on any one machine. For a constant p∗p_*p∗​, the class n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗n|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​ requires 1≤pj≤p∗1 \le p_j \le p_*1≤pj​≤p∗​ for every job and an acyclic precedence relation.

A schedule assigns to every job a machine and a starting time Bj∈NB_j \in \mathbb NBj​∈N; the completion time is Cj=Bj+pjC_j = B_j + p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​. It is feasible if two jobs on the same machine never overlap and Jj<JkJ_j < J_kJj​<Jk​ implies Cj≤BkC_j \le B_kCj​≤Bk​.

Following the paper, each optimization problem is replaced by its recognition version. Problem P′P'P′ asks, for an instance and a threshold y′y'y′, whether some feasible schedule has Cmax⁡=max⁡jCj≤y′C_{\max} = \max_j C_j \le y'Cmax​=maxj​Cj​≤y′. Problem PPP asks, for an instance of the same class and a threshold yyy, whether some feasible schedule has ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y (all weights wj=1w_j = 1wj​=1).

P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, written P′∝PP' \propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1(l)

For every constant p∗≥1p_* \ge 1p∗​≥1,

n′∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗∣Cmax⁡  ∝  n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗,wj=1∣∑wjCj.n'|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*|C_{\max} \;\propto\; n|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j .n′∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​∣Cmax​∝n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​.

Milestones

  1. A trivial upper bound. Every instance of P′P'P′ with n′n'n′ jobs has a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤n′p∗C_{\max} \le n'p_*Cmax​≤n′p∗​.
  2. The construction and the forward direction. For 0≤y′≤n′p∗0 \le y' \le n'p_*0≤y′≤n′p∗​ let n′′=(n′−1)y′n'' = (n'-1)y'n′′=(n′−1)y′, n=n′+n′′n = n'+n''n=n′+n′′ and y=ny′+12n′′(n′′+1)y = ny' + \tfrac12 n''(n''+1)y=ny′+21​n′′(n′′+1), and add n′′n''n′′ unit-time jobs Jn′+kJ_{n'+k}Jn′+k​, each required to follow every original job and every earlier added job. If P′P'P′ has a schedule with Cmax⁡≤y′C_{\max} \le y'Cmax​≤y′, the new instance has a feasible schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y.
  3. The backward direction. If every feasible schedule of P′P'P′ has Cmax⁡>y′C_{\max} > y'Cmax​>y′, every feasible schedule of the new instance has ∑jCj>y\sum_j C_j > y∑j​Cj​>y.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1(l) makes the total completion time problem at least as hard as the makespan problem in the same class. Combined with Ullman's NP-completeness results and Theorem 1(b) (reducibility transfers NP-completeness), it shows that minimizing ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ on identical machines with precedence constraints is NP-complete, already for two machines with pj∈{1,2}p_j \in \{1, 2\}pj​∈{1,2} and for unit processing times on mmm machines. These are two rows of the paper's Table III.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on one page of a typewritten report; no machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a scheduling model for identical machines with precedence constraints, binary languages for the two recognition problems, and the reduction in Cook's Turing-machine model. The proof's displayed bounds contain a misprinted index range, which the formal statements correct.

Difficulty

The two criteria are not monotonically related: a schedule with a smaller makespan can have a larger total completion time than one with a larger makespan. So the obvious reduction, keeping the instance and asking for ∑jCj≤n′y′\sum_j C_j \le n'y'∑j​Cj​≤n′y′, is not an equivalence: a no-instance of P′P'P′ can have a schedule with small total completion time. The instance has to be changed so that the total completion time is governed by the makespan, and the comparison of the two thresholds must be exact, including the strict inequality on the "no" side, which depends on integral completion times and positive processing times.

The main formal difficulty lies in the reduction itself. A polynomial-time Turing machine must decode the binary instance, check that it belongs to the class (including acyclicity of the precedence relation), compare y′y'y′ with n′p∗n'p_*n′p∗​, and write out an instance with n′′=(n′−1)y′n'' = (n'-1)y'n′′=(n′−1)y′ additional jobs and a quadratic-size precedence matrix. The size of that output is polynomial only because p∗p_*p∗​ is a constant: a version with p∗p_*p∗​ part of the input would make n′′n''n′′ exponential in the input length.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs and machines are indexed from 000 (Fin n, Fin m). Starting times are natural numbers; Section 3 derives all times from processing orders on nonnegative integer data, and both criteria are regular. "Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max} \le yCmax​≤y" is written as "Cj≤yC_j \le yCj​≤y for every jjj".
  • The precedence relation is a Boolean matrix. Its acyclicity and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 are part of the problem class; the paper leaves both implicit, and the claim "any instance has a solution with Cmax⁡≤n′p∗C_{\max} \le n'p_*Cmax​≤n′p∗​" fails without them.
  • p∗p_*p∗​ is a constant of the class and a parameter of both languages, not part of the input. All weights in the target problem equal 111 and are not written.
  • The threshold y=ny′+12n′′(n′′+1)y = ny' + \tfrac12 n''(n''+1)y=ny′+21​n′′(n′′+1) is stated in Q\mathbb QQ exactly as printed in the milestones; it is an integer, and the reduction uses its natural-number value.
  • The paper's displayed bounds n′y′+∑k=n′+1n(y′+k)=yn'y' + \sum_{k=n'+1}^{n}(y'+k) = yn′y′+∑k=n′+1n​(y′+k)=y and y′+∑k=n′+1n(y′+1+k)=yy' + \sum_{k=n'+1}^{n}(y'+1+k) = yy′+∑k=n′+1n​(y′+1+k)=y have a misprinted index range (the sums must run over k=1,…,n′′k = 1,\dots,n''k=1,…,n′′). The milestones state the end-to-end bounds ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y and ∑jCj>y\sum_j C_j > y∑j​Cj​>y.
  • "Cmax⁡>y′C_{\max} > y'Cmax​>y′" in the backward direction is read as the negation of the forward hypothesis: no feasible schedule of P′P'P′ has Cmax⁡≤y′C_{\max} \le y'Cmax​≤y′.
  • "Reducible" is Cook's polynomial-time many-one reducibility from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs; numbers are written in binary with the alphabet and code encNats of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's encoding). The unit-time model ResourceScheduling.Chain.Model (Błażewicz, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan) has the same feasibility conditions but unit processing times and real start times, so the model here is defined anew.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal asserts a polynomial-time computable map, not the bare equivalence, and codes of instances outside the class are excluded from both languages, so the reduction cannot exploit malformed inputs.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the three milestones, a Turing-machine library for arithmetic on binary codes (reusable across this series), and a proof of the goal from the milestones.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; published in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • J. D. Ullman, NP-complete scheduling problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 10 (1975) 384–393. doi:10.1016/S0022-0000(75)80008-0
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. doi:10.1145/800157.805047
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
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Complexity TheoryGraph TheoryOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 6: DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH Reduces to No-Wait Flow Shop Makespan and Total Completion TimeResearch Paper

Motivation

In a no-wait flow shop every job passes through the machines M1,…,MmM_1,\dots,M_mM1​,…,Mm​ in the same order, and once it has started it may never wait between two machines. The constraint comes from processes in which the material changes state if it is left standing, such as hot metal rolling, chemical and food processing, and some pharmaceutical lines; see the survey of Hall and Sriskandarajah (doi:10.1287/opre.44.3.510). The question of how hard it is to schedule such a shop well is the question this mission formalizes.

Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan settled it for the case in which the number of machines is part of the input. In their report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977, doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X), Theorem 5 reduces DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH to the no-wait flow shop. Both minimizing the makespan Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ and minimizing the total completion time ∑Cj\sum C_j∑Cj​ are thereby NP-complete.

Timeline.

  • 1964: Gilmore and Gomory solve the two-machine no-wait flow shop with makespan in polynomial time (doi:10.1287/opre.12.5.655).
  • 1972: Wismer (doi:10.1287/opre.20.3.689) and Reddi and Ramamoorthy (doi:10.1057/jors.1972.52) show that no-wait makespan minimization is a travelling-salesman problem with arc weights computed from the processing times.
  • 1972: Karp proves DIRECTED HAMILTON CIRCUIT NP-complete (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan reduce DIRECTED HAMILTON CIRCUIT to DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH (their Theorem 2(d)), and DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH to n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax⁡n|m|F,\textit{no wait}|C_{\max}n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax​ and to n∣m∣F,no wait,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|m|F,\textit{no wait},w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣m∣F,no wait,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ (Theorem 5).
  • 1984: Röck shows that the problem stays NP-hard for three machines (doi:10.1145/62.65).

Setting

There are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and mmm machines. Job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ needs processing time pℓi∈Np_{\ell i}\in\mathbb Npℓi​∈N on machine MiM_iMi​. Write

qℓi=∑r=1ipℓr,qℓ0=0,q_{\ell i}=\sum_{r=1}^{i}p_{\ell r},\qquad q_{\ell 0}=0,qℓi​=r=1∑i​pℓr​,qℓ0​=0,

for the time job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ spends on its first iii machines. Because a job never waits, a schedule is determined by the start times Bℓ∈NB_\ell\in\mathbb NBℓ​∈N. The operation of JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ on MiM_iMi​ occupies [Bℓ+qℓ,i−1, Bℓ+qℓi)[B_\ell+q_{\ell,i-1},\,B_\ell+q_{\ell i})[Bℓ​+qℓ,i−1​,Bℓ​+qℓi​), and job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ completes at Cℓ=Bℓ+qℓmC_\ell=B_\ell+q_{\ell m}Cℓ​=Bℓ​+qℓm​. A schedule is feasible when no two distinct jobs occupy the same machine at the same time. The delay

cjk=max⁡1≤i≤m{qji−qk,i−1}c_{jk}=\max_{1\le i\le m}\{q_{ji}-q_{k,i-1}\}cjk​=1≤i≤mmax​{qji​−qk,i−1​}

is the least gap Bk−BjB_k-B_jBk​−Bj​ that lets JkJ_kJk​ follow JjJ_jJj​ on every machine.

A directed graph G=(V,A)G=(V,A)G=(V,A) on V={0,…,n−1}V=\{0,\dots,n-1\}V={0,…,n−1} has a Hamilton path if its vertices can be ordered σ(0),…,σ(n−1)\sigma(0),\dots,\sigma(n-1)σ(0),…,σ(n−1) with every (σ(i),σ(i+1))∈A(\sigma(i),\sigma(i+1))\in A(σ(i),σ(i+1))∈A.

From GGG the paper builds an instance with nnn jobs and m=n(n−1)+2m=n(n-1)+2m=n(n−1)+2 machines. Each ordered pair (j,k)(j,k)(j,k) of distinct jobs is assigned a middle machine ι(j,k)∈{2,…,m−1}\iota(j,k)\in\{2,\dots,m-1\}ι(j,k)∈{2,…,m−1}, and the partial sums qℓiq_{\ell i}qℓi​ are perturbed from iμi\muiμ by ±λ\pm\lambda±λ or ±(λ+1)\pm(\lambda+1)±(λ+1) on the machines ι(ℓ,⋅)\iota(\ell,\cdot)ι(ℓ,⋅) and just before the machines ι(⋅,ℓ)\iota(\cdot,\ell)ι(⋅,ℓ), depending on whether the pair is an arc. The parameters satisfy λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1 and μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 5)

DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax⁡andDIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait,wj=1∣∑wjCj,\text{DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH}\ \propto\ n|m|F,\textit{no wait}|C_{\max}\quad\text{and}\quad \text{DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH}\ \propto\ n|m|F,\textit{no wait},w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j,DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax​andDIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​,

where ∝\propto∝ is polynomial-time many-one reducibility between the binary-coded recognition languages.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Eq. (9): cjkc_{jk}cjk​ is the least gap between BjB_jBj​ and BkB_kBk​ for which JkJ_kJk​ follows JjJ_jJj​ on every machine.
  2. The travelling-salesman reformulation: if all processing times are positive, a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y (resp. ∑Cℓ≤y\sum C_\ell\le y∑Cℓ​≤y) exists iff some job order has path length (resp. summed completion times along the path) at most yyy.
  3. An admissible ordering ι\iotaι exists for every n≠2n\ne2n=2.
  4. All processing times of the construction are at least 111.
  5. The delays of the construction: cjk=μ+2λc_{jk}=\mu+2\lambdacjk​=μ+2λ if (j,k)∈A(j,k)\in A(j,k)∈A, and μ+2λ+2\mu+2\lambda+2μ+2λ+2 otherwise.
  6. Theorem 5(a), the equivalence: GGG has a Hamilton path   ⟺  \iff⟺ Cmax⁡≤(n−1)(μ+2λ)+mμC_{\max}\le(n-1)(\mu+2\lambda)+m\muCmax​≤(n−1)(μ+2λ)+mμ.
  7. Theorem 5(b), the equivalence: GGG has a Hamilton path   ⟺  \iff⟺ ∑jCj≤12n(n−1)(μ+2λ)+nmμ\sum_jC_j\le\tfrac12n(n-1)(\mu+2\lambda)+nm\mu∑j​Cj​≤21​n(n−1)(μ+2λ)+nmμ.
  8. Theorem 2(d), off the goal's path: G′G'G′ has a Hamilton circuit iff the graph obtained by splitting a vertex v′v'v′ into v′v'v′ and a new sink v′′v''v′′ has a Hamilton path.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5, together with the NP-completeness of DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH, places both no-wait criteria among the NP-complete problems once mmm is part of the input. The Gilmore–Gomory algorithm for two machines therefore cannot be extended to arbitrary mmm unless P = NP, and heuristics and exact exponential methods for no-wait shops are justified. The reduction also gives a structural fact of independent use: every directed graph can be realized, up to two arc-weight values, as the delay matrix of a no-wait flow shop.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved for fifty years; to our knowledge no machine-checked version exists. This mission produces a checked no-wait flow shop model, a checked travelling-salesman reformulation of it, the correctness of the paper's construction, and a polynomial-time reduction in an explicit Turing-machine model. It also records a gap in the printed proof: the ordering ι\iotaι the paper calls easy to construct does not exist for n=2n=2n=2.

Difficulty

Three steps are not routine.

  1. The passage from schedules to job orders assumes that the order in which jobs start is the order in which they visit every machine. With zero processing times this fails, so the reformulation needs the positivity milestone.
  2. Computing the delays requires a case analysis over all machines and all pairs of perturbations. The property of ι\iotaι is exactly what keeps the "+++" and "−-−" cases from colliding, and the constants λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1, μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3 are tight enough that the comparison must be done carefully.
  3. The goal asks for an actual Turing machine with a polynomial step bound. It has to build ι\iotaι for every n≠2n\ne2n=2 and handle n≤2n\le2n≤2 separately. The equivalences alone do not give this.

Formalization scope

Jobs and machines are 000-based (Fin n, Fin m); cum p ℓ i is the paper's qℓiq_{\ell i}qℓi​, and the machine indices ι(j,k)\iota(j,k)ι(j,k) are the paper's 111-based indices. Start times are natural numbers, and release dates are 000. Section 3 computes times from processing orders on integer data, and every criterion is regular, so real start times would not change the yes-instances. A zero-length operation occupies the empty interval. Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y is stated as Cℓ≤yC_\ell\le yCℓ​≤y for every job. The delays, the partial sums of the construction and its processing times are computed in Z\mathbb ZZ. The instance uses their conversion to N\mathbb NN, which is exact by milestone 4. The threshold of Theorem 5(b) is compared in Q\mathbb QQ, as printed.

The paper's loose phrases are made explicit as follows:

  • "scheduled directly after" means "precedes on every machine";
  • "equivalent to solving the TRAVELLING SALESMAN problem" means the two threshold equivalences of milestone 2, with the ∑Cj\sum C_j∑Cj​ version as the reading of "constructed as in (a)";
  • "such an ordering can easily be constructed" is stated for n≠2n\ne2n=2, the only case in which it is true.

Directed graphs are Boolean adjacency matrices. A graph with 000 or 111 vertices has a Hamilton path, and a one-vertex graph has a Hamilton circuit iff it has a loop.

The goal is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs, with polynomial time measured on Cook's one-tape Turing machines. Instances are coded with the alphabet BSym and binary code encNats of the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann). A graph is coded as nnn followed by its adjacency matrix; a flow-shop instance as nnn, mmm, the matrix (pℓi)(p_{\ell i})(pℓi​) and the threshold yyy.

Stating only the equivalences 6–7 and calling the result "reducible" would drop polynomiality; the goal therefore asserts PolyReducible. The target languages contain exactly the no-wait flow-shop instances, with no waiting allowed, so the reduction cannot land in a looser problem. The parameters λ,μ\lambda,\muλ,μ always carry λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1, μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3.

Contributions are welcome at every level:

  • the general travelling-salesman reformulation, which is reusable for any no-wait flow-shop result;
  • the combinatorial existence of ι\iotaι;
  • the arithmetic of the construction;
  • Turing-machine infrastructure for computing arithmetic list transformations in polynomial time, which every reduction in this series needs.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • P. C. Gilmore, R. E. Gomory, Sequencing a one state-variable machine: a solvable case of the traveling salesman problem, Operations Research 12 (1964) 655–679. doi:10.1287/opre.12.5.655
  • D. A. Wismer, Solution of the flowshop-scheduling problem with no intermediate queues, Operations Research 20 (1972) 689–697. doi:10.1287/opre.20.3.689
  • S. S. Reddi, C. V. Ramamoorthy, On the flow-shop sequencing problem with no wait in process, Operational Research Quarterly 23 (1972) 323–331. doi:10.1057/jors.1972.52
  • H. Röck, The three-machine no-wait flow shop is NP-complete, Journal of the ACM 31 (1984) 336–345. doi:10.1145/62.65
  • N. G. Hall, C. Sriskandarajah, A survey of machine scheduling problems with blocking and no-wait in process, Operations Research 44 (1996) 510–525. doi:10.1287/opre.44.3.510
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. doi:10.1145/800157.805047
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Wait-and-Judge Scenario Optimization 1: For Convex Programs, Seeing s_N Support Constraints Gives P^N{V(x_N) > ε(s_N)} ≤ γ, the Value of the Variational Problem (10)Research Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems in control, finance and engineering must hold against an uncertain parameter δ\deltaδ whose distribution is unknown, while samples of δ\deltaδ (measurements, historical records, simulations) are available. The scenario approach replaces the uncertain constraint by the constraints of the NNN observed samples and solves the resulting convex program. The open question is then how robust its solution is: with what probability does a new, unseen δ\deltaδ violate it?

The classical answer, due to Calafiore and Campi (doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0499-y, 2005; doi:10.1109/TAC.2006.875041, 2006) and sharpened by Campi and Garatti (doi:10.1137/07069821X, 2008), is an a-priori bound: it depends only on NNN and the dimension ddd, and it is tight for the worst problems. It is conservative for the many problems whose solution is determined by far fewer than ddd samples. Campi and Garatti's wait-and-judge theorem (doi:10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9, Math. Program. 2018) replaces it by an a-posteriori certificate: after solving, count the samples that actually determine the solution and certify the solution at a level that depends on that count.

Timeline:

  • 2005–2006, Calafiore and Campi: a convex scenario program in Rd\mathbb R^dRd has at most ddd support constraints; first sample-size bounds.
  • 2008, Campi and Garatti: the exact bound PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ}≤∑i=0d−1(Ni)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon\}\le\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\epsilon^i(1-\epsilon)^{N-i}PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ}≤∑i=0d−1​(iN​)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i, with equality for fully-supported problems.
  • 2018, Campi and Garatti: the wait-and-judge bound, Theorem 1 below, with the 2008 bound as a corollary.

Setting

The decision variable is x∈Rdx\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. A problem consists of a cost vector c∈Rdc\in\mathbb R^dc∈Rd, a convex domain X⊆Rd\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd, convex constraint sets Xδ⊆Rd\mathcal X_\delta\subseteq\mathbb R^dXδ​⊆Rd indexed by δ\deltaδ in a probability space (Δ,F,P)(\Delta,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Δ,F,P), and convex tie-break functions t1,…,tpt_1,\dots,t_pt1​,…,tp​. Given an i.i.d. sample δ(1),…,δ(N)\delta^{(1)},\dots,\delta^{(N)}δ(1),…,δ(N) with N>dN>dN>d, the scenario program is

min⁡x∈X cTxsubject tox∈⋂i=1NXδ(i).\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\ c^{\mathsf T}x\quad\text{subject to}\quad x\in\bigcap_{i=1}^N\mathcal X_{\delta^{(i)}}.x∈Xmin​ cTxsubject tox∈i=1⋂N​Xδ(i)​.

Ties are broken by minimising t1t_1t1​ among the minimisers, then t2t_2t2​, and so on; the resulting solution is xN∗x^*_NxN∗​.

  • The violation of a point is V(x)=P{δ∈Δ:x∉Xδ}V(x)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta: x\notin\mathcal X_\delta\}V(x)=P{δ∈Δ:x∈/Xδ​}.
  • A constraint is a support constraint if removing it changes the solution; sN∗s^*_NsN∗​ is their number.
  • Assumption 1: for every mmm and every sample of size mmm, the program with those mmm constraints has a unique tie-broken solution.
  • Assumption 2 (non-degeneracy): for every mmm, with probability one, keeping only the support constraints does not change the solution.

The variational problem (10) is: for a function ϵ:{0,…,d}→[0,1]\epsilon:\{0,\dots,d\}\to[0,1]ϵ:{0,…,d}→[0,1],

γ∗=inf⁡ξ∈Cd[0,1]ξ(1)s.t.1k!dkdtkξ(t)≥(Nk)tN−k 1[0,1−ϵ(k))(t),  t∈[0,1], k=0,…,d.\gamma^*=\inf_{\xi\in C^d[0,1]}\xi(1)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\frac1{k!}\frac{\mathrm d^k}{\mathrm dt^k}\xi(t)\ge\binom Nk t^{N-k}\,\mathbf 1_{[0,1-\epsilon(k))}(t),\ \ t\in[0,1],\ k=0,\dots,d.γ∗=ξ∈Cd[0,1]inf​ξ(1)s.t.k!1​dtkdk​ξ(t)≥(kN​)tN−k1[0,1−ϵ(k))​(t),  t∈[0,1], k=0,…,d.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 10)

For every [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k), under Assumptions 1 and 2,

PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(sN∗)} ≤ γ∗.\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(s^*_N)\}\ \le\ \gamma^*.PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(sN∗​)} ≤ γ∗.

The level ϵ\epsilonϵ is evaluated at the observed number of support constraints. The goal fixes no particular ϵ\epsilonϵ, which keeps it stable under any later choice of levels.

Milestones (the proof of Theorem 1, Sect. 5.1)

  1. sm∗≤ds^*_m\le dsm∗​≤d for every sample (quoted from [7]).
  2. (14): PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(k)∧sN∗=k}=(Nk) PN{A}\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(k)\wedge s^*_N=k\}=\binom Nk\,\mathbb P^N\{A\}PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(k)∧sN∗​=k}=(kN​)PN{A}, where AAA adds "the first kkk constraints are of support".
  3. A=BA=BA=B up to a null set, where BBB concerns the program on the first kkk samples.
  4. (16): PN{A}=∫(ϵ(k),1](1−v)N−k dFk(v)\mathbb P^N\{A\}=\int_{(\epsilon(k),1]}(1-v)^{N-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)PN{A}=∫(ϵ(k),1]​(1−v)N−kdFk​(v), with Fk(v)=Pk{V(xk∗)≤v∧sk∗=k}F_k(v)=\mathbb P^k\{V(x^*_k)\le v\wedge s^*_k=k\}Fk​(v)=Pk{V(xk∗​)≤v∧sk∗​=k}.
  5. (17): PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(sN∗)}=∑k=0d(Nk)∫(ϵ(k),1](1−v)N−k dFk(v)\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(s^*_N)\}=\sum_{k=0}^d\binom Nk\int_{(\epsilon(k),1]}(1-v)^{N-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(sN∗​)}=∑k=0d​(kN​)∫(ϵ(k),1]​(1−v)N−kdFk​(v).
  6. (18): ∑k=0min⁡{m,d}(mk)∫[0,1](1−v)m−k dFk(v)=1\sum_{k=0}^{\min\{m,d\}}\binom mk\int_{[0,1]}(1-v)^{m-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)=1∑k=0min{m,d}​(km​)∫[0,1]​(1−v)m−kdFk​(v)=1 for every mmm.
  7. Weak duality between the truncated moment problem (20) and its dual (21), giving (22).
  8. (23): 1k!dkdtktm=(mk)tm−k\frac1{k!}\frac{\mathrm d^k}{\mathrm dt^k}t^m=\binom mk t^{m-k}k!1​dtkdk​tm=(km​)tm−k for m≥km\ge km≥k, and 000 otherwise.
  9. (24): the infimum of p(1)p(1)p(1) over polynomials feasible for (10) equals γ∗\gamma^*γ∗.

Companions

  • Theorem 2 (p. 11): for β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) and ϵ(k)=1−t(k)\epsilon(k)=1-t(k)ϵ(k)=1−t(k), with t(k)t(k)t(k) the unique root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) of βN+1∑m=kN(mk)tm−k−(Nk)tN−k=0\frac{\beta}{N+1}\sum_{m=k}^N\binom mk t^{m-k}-\binom Nk t^{N-k}=0N+1β​∑m=kN​(km​)tm−k−(kN​)tN−k=0, the probability is at most β\betaβ.
  • The root lemma of Sect. 5.3, including its sign and divergence claims.
  • γ∗≤∑i<d(Ni)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i\gamma^*\le\sum_{i<d}\binom Ni\epsilon^i(1-\epsilon)^{N-i}γ∗≤∑i<d​(iN​)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i for constant ϵ\epsilonϵ (Sect. 5.2).
  • Corollary 1, the 2008 bound.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns the number of support constraints, which is observed after solving, into a confidence statement that holds uniformly over all convex problems and all distributions. With Theorem 2's choice of ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k), a user who finds k≪dk\ll dk≪d support constraints obtains a level ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k) comparable to that of a kkk-dimensional problem, which is far below the a-priori level for dimension ddd. The classical bound (2) is recovered as Corollary 1, so Theorem 1 contains the earlier theory.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization produces:

  • a formal account of scenario programs with lexicographic tie-break and of support constraints in the "changes the solution" sense;
  • the exchangeability argument (14) on product measures;
  • the representation (17) of a tail probability through generalized distribution functions;
  • a weak-duality argument for a generalized moment problem. The 2008 bound itself is posed on the platform as an open problem under other hypotheses; Corollary 1 states it under this paper's assumptions.

Difficulty

The obvious approach bounds the probability for each value of sN∗s^*_NsN∗​ separately by a binomial tail, then sums. This fails: the event sN∗=ks^*_N=ksN∗​=k is not known in advance, and summing the individual bounds over kkk loses the uniformity that makes the result useful. The paper instead characterises every convex problem by the (d+1)(d+1)(d+1)-tuple (F0,…,Fd)(F_0,\dots,F_d)(F0​,…,Fd​). It then maximises (17) over all tuples satisfying the infinitely many moment conditions (18), which is a generalized moment problem in d+1d+1d+1 measures, and solves it by duality.

Two steps carry most of the work. One is the almost-sure identity A=BA=BA=B, which depends on the precise interplay of Assumptions 1 and 2 with the tie-break. The other is passing from the polynomial dual problems to the variational problem (10), which needs a density argument in Cd[0,1]C^d[0,1]Cd[0,1]. The bound sN∗≤ds^*_N\le dsN∗​≤d itself is quoted from the earlier literature; it needs a Helly-type argument adapted to the lexicographic tie-break.

Formalization scope

  • Spaces. The decision space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with its Borel σ-algebra, and samples are Fin N → Δ, indexed from 000. P\mathbb PP is a probability measure and PN\mathbb P^NPN is the product measure.
  • Tie-break. The tie-broken solution is the lexicographic minimiser of (cTx,t1(x),…,tp(x))(c^{\mathsf T}x,t_1(x),\dots,t_p(x))(cTx,t1​(x),…,tp​(x)) and depends only on the feasible set, which is what makes the exchangeability step valid. A support constraint is one whose removal changes this solution; this is not the platform's earlier "removal lowers the cost" notion.
  • Assumptions. Assumption 1 is required for every sample, Assumption 2 almost surely.
  • Measurability. The paper takes measurability for granted (footnote 1). Here it is two explicit hypotheses: the relation {(x,δ):x∈Xδ}\{(x,\delta):x\in\mathcal X_\delta\}{(x,δ):x∈Xδ​} is measurable, and every solution map ω↦xm∗(ω)\omega\mapsto x^*_m(\omega)ω↦xm∗​(ω) is measurable. No event is assumed measurable directly.
  • FkF_kFk​. FkF_kFk​ is the finite measure on R\mathbb RR given by the law of V(xk∗)V(x^*_k)V(xk∗​) on the event {sk∗=k}\{s^*_k=k\}{sk∗​=k}; it is not normalised.
  • Problem (10). Cd[0,1]C^d[0,1]Cd[0,1] is ContDiffOn ℝ d on [0,1][0,1][0,1], with derivatives taken within [0,1][0,1][0,1]. γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ is a real infimum over a set that is nonempty (ξ(t)=tN\xi(t)=t^Nξ(t)=tN) and bounded below by 000.
  • Probabilities are compared with real quantities through ENNReal.ofReal.
  • Theorem 2 is stated for every ϵ\epsilonϵ whose values 1−ϵ(k)1-\epsilon(k)1−ϵ(k) are roots of (11) in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), which by its first part is the paper's ϵ\epsilonϵ.
  • Added hypothesis. The constant-ϵ\epsilonϵ companion assumes d≥1d\ge1d≥1: at d=0d=0d=0, ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0 its inequality is false.

Ruled-out trivializations:

  • The solution is never a free function of the sample.
  • The goal does not mention FkF_kFk​, moments or polynomials.
  • Assumption 1 is not weakened to almost surely.
  • N>dN>dN>d is kept on Theorems 1, 2 and Corollary 1.
  • The indicators keep the paper's open and closed ends: [0,1−ϵ(k))[0,1-\epsilon(k))[0,1−ϵ(k)) in (10), (ϵ(k),1](\epsilon(k),1](ϵ(k),1] in (16)–(21).

Contributions welcome:

  • the support-constraint bound under lexicographic tie-break, which is reusable for any convex scenario result;
  • the exchangeability lemma on Measure.pi;
  • the duality and density lemmas, which are pure analysis.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming 167 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, Uncertain convex programs: randomized solutions and confidence levels, Mathematical Programming 102 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0499-y
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
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Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 3: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Total Weighted TardinessResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing total weighted tardiness on a single machine, written n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​, is one of the basic problems of deterministic scheduling. A job that finishes after its due date is penalized in proportion to its lateness and its weight. Practitioners use this criterion to model penalty clauses and customer priority. In the theory it was a reference problem for branch-and-bound methods and dominance rules throughout the 1960s and 1970s.

Close relatives are easy: with equal weights and a common due date, shortest-processing-time order is optimal. Whether the weighted problem admits a polynomial algorithm was open until the report of Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan in 1975. Their Theorem 4(d) shows that KNAPSACK reduces to it, so the problem is NP-hard. The unweighted case n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ is listed there as open (Section 5) and was settled only later by Du and Leung (1990).

Timeline:

  • 1972: Karp proves KNAPSACK NP-complete (Karp 1972).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Theorem 4(d), reduce KNAPSACK to n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ (journal version: Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977).
  • 1977: Lawler gives a pseudopolynomial algorithm for n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ and shows that n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ is strongly NP-hard (Lawler 1977).
  • 1990: Du and Leung prove n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ NP-hard (Du & Leung 1990).

Setting

A KNAPSACK instance consists of positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb. It is a yes-instance if some subset S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} satisfies ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b. Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​ and a∗=max⁡j∈Taja_*=\max_{j\in T}a_ja∗​=maxj∈T​aj​.

An instance of n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ consists of nnn jobs. Job jjj has a processing time pjp_jpj​, a weight wjw_jwj​ and a due date djd_jdj​, all nonnegative integers, and every job is available at time 000. A schedule gives each job a start time Bj∈NB_j\in\mathbb NBj​∈N, and no two jobs may overlap on the machine. Job jjj completes at Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​ and has tardiness Tj=max⁡{0,Cj−dj}T_j=\max\{0,C_j-d_j\}Tj​=max{0,Cj​−dj​}. The instance with threshold yyy is a yes-instance if some schedule satisfies ∑jwjTj≤y\sum_jw_jT_j\le y∑j​wj​Tj​≤y. A processing order π=(π(1),…,π(n))\pi=(\pi(1),\dots,\pi(n))π=(π(1),…,π(n)) determines the schedule without idle time, in which Cπ(k)=∑i≤kpπ(i)C_{\pi(k)}=\sum_{i\le k}p_{\pi(i)}Cπ(k)​=∑i≤k​pπ(i)​.

Reducibility (Section 2 of the paper) is polynomial-time many-one reducibility between the recognition versions. A polynomial-time Turing machine must map codes of KNAPSACK instances to codes of scheduling instances so that yes-instances map exactly to yes-instances.

The paper's construction has n=t+t′n=t+t'n=t+t′ jobs: for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T, pj=τ+ajp_j=\tau+a_jpj​=τ+aj​, wj=τ+aj+1w_j=\tau+a_j+1wj​=τ+aj​+1, dj=tτ+bd_j=t\tau+bdj​=tτ+b; for each of the t′t't′ dummy jobs, pj=τp_j=\taupj​=τ, wj=τ+1w_j=\tau+1wj​=τ+1, dj=tτ+bd_j=t\tau+bdj​=tτ+b. The threshold is y=12t′(t′+1)τ(τ+1)+(t′+1)τ(A−b)+t′y=\tfrac12t'(t'+1)\tau(\tau+1)+(t'+1)\tau(A-b)+t'y=21​t′(t′+1)τ(τ+1)+(t′+1)τ(A−b)+t′, with t′=12(t+1)(A−b)+12t(t+1)a∗2t'=\tfrac12(t+1)(A-b)+\tfrac12t(t+1)a_*^2t′=21​(t+1)(A−b)+21​t(t+1)a∗2​ and τ>2t′+A\tau>2t'+Aτ>2t′+A. The proof is phrased in terms of cπ=Cπ(t)−(tτ+b)c_\pi=C_{\pi(t)}-(t\tau+b)cπ​=Cπ(t)​−(tτ+b), the amount by which the ttt-th job of the order misses the common due date.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(d)

KNAPSACK  ∝  n∣1∣∣∑wjTj,\text{KNAPSACK}\;\propto\;n|1||\textstyle\sum w_jT_j,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​,

stated as CookPvsNP.PolyReducible SchedComplexity.OneMachine.knapsackLang wtLangMult. The scheduling side uses the multiplicity encoding of the paper's Remark (p. 23), in which a class of identical jobs is written once together with its cardinality.

The equivalence and its claims

Each milestone is a statement of the paper's proof (pp. 20–21) about the construction above, for every admissible τ\tauτ:

  • removal of idle time: every schedule is matched or improved by the schedule without idle time of some processing order;
  • KNAPSACK has a solution iff some order has Cπ(t)=tτ+bC_{\pi(t)}=t\tau+bCπ(t)​=tτ+b; moreover −b≤cπ≤A−b-b\le c_\pi\le A-b−b≤cπ​≤A−b;
  • identities and bounds (2)–(7) for the tail sums ∑j>tvπ(j)(Cπ(j)−Cπ(t))\sum_{j>t}v_{\pi(j)}(C_{\pi(j)}-C_{\pi(t)})∑j>t​vπ(j)​(Cπ(j)​−Cπ(t)​);
  • claims (A) cπ=0⇒∃π′c_\pi=0\Rightarrow\exists\pi'cπ​=0⇒∃π′ with cπ′=0c_{\pi'}=0cπ′​=0 and ∑wjTj≤y\sum w_jT_j\le y∑wj​Tj​≤y; (B) cπ>0⇒∑wjTj>yc_\pi>0\Rightarrow\sum w_jT_j>ycπ​>0⇒∑wj​Tj​>y; (C) cπ<0⇒∑wjTj>yc_\pi<0\Rightarrow\sum w_jT_j>ycπ​<0⇒∑wj​Tj​>y;
  • the equivalence: KNAPSACK has a solution iff the constructed instance has a schedule with ∑wjTj≤y\sum w_jT_j\le y∑wj​Tj​≤y.

Significance

The theorem places n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ among the NP-hard problems, so (unless P = NP) the research on it has to aim at enumerative methods, pseudopolynomial algorithms or approximation, not at an exact polynomial algorithm. Together with the companion reductions of Theorem 4, it drew the boundary between easy and hard single-machine problems that the later classification of Lageweg, Lawler, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan made systematic.

The result is proved in the paper, and Lawler's later strong NP-hardness proof supersedes it. No machine-checked proof is known to exist. A formal proof adds three things. It makes the paper's "it is easily seen" steps and the encoding argument of the Remark explicit. It produces a reusable single-machine tardiness model with processing orders. It also fixes a gap in the printed construction: the printed t′t't′ need not be an integer.

Difficulty

The equivalence is not a local exchange argument. The threshold yyy must separate orders with cπ=0c_\pi=0cπ​=0 from all others, and the objective is a quadratic function of the order. The orders with cπ=0c_\pi=0cπ​=0 can still differ in ∑wjTj\sum w_jT_j∑wj​Tj​ by the cross terms ∑aπ(j)aπ(k)\sum a_{\pi(j)}a_{\pi(k)}∑aπ(j)​aπ(k)​ and by how the late jobs are arranged. The construction therefore needs a slack t′t't′ that absorbs these terms, and a scale τ\tauτ large enough that a nonzero cπc_\picπ​ always costs more than the slack. Keeping exact track of every constant, including t′t't′ and yyy, is where errors creep in.

Polynomiality is a second, separate difficulty. The construction has Θ(t2a∗2+tA)\Theta(t^2a_*^2+tA)Θ(t2a∗2​+tA) jobs, which is exponential in the binary length of the KNAPSACK input. The goal holds only for the encoding of the Remark, and a solver must also produce an explicit polynomial-time Turing machine.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs of the order-based statements are Fin n, numbered from 000; a processing order is Equiv.Perm (Fin n) with π i the paper's π(i+1)\pi(i+1)π(i+1). posCompletion p π k is the paper's Cπ(k)C_{\pi(k)}Cπ(k)​ for the 1-based position kkk.
  • Start times are in N\mathbb NN. Every criterion is regular and the paper determines schedules by processing orders, so integer start times lose nothing. Tardiness and ∑wjTj\sum w_jT_j∑wj​Tj​ are computed in Z\mathbb ZZ; the bounds with halves are stated over R\mathbb RR exactly as printed.
  • Corrected gap: the printed t′=12(t+1)(A−b)+12t(t+1)a∗2t'=\tfrac12(t+1)(A-b)+\tfrac12t(t+1)a_*^2t′=21​(t+1)(A−b)+21​t(t+1)a∗2​ is a half-integer when (t+1)(A−b)(t+1)(A-b)(t+1)(A−b) is odd. The formalization uses its ceiling and computes yyy from the same t′t't′.
  • τ\tauτ is quantified over all integers with τ>2t′+A\tau>2t'+Aτ>2t′+A; the positivity of the aja_jaj​ and 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A are hypotheses, as the paper assumes them.
  • Explicit readings of the paper's loose phrases: "we may assume [no idle time]" becomes a theorem that the schedule without idle time of some order is at least as good as any schedule; "easily seen" becomes the equivalence with Cπ(t)=tτ+bC_{\pi(t)}=t\tau+bCπ(t)​=tτ+b; "for some π\piπ" in (5) and (7) becomes a reordering that keeps the first ttt positions, and so keeps cπc_\picπ​; "we may assume 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" is a hypothesis of the milestones but not of the goal, whose reduction must handle every KNAPSACK instance.
  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published CookPvsNP_defs. Codes use the alphabet BSym and the binary numerals encNats of the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's encoding). KNAPSACK is restricted to positive integers, so that encoding's subsetSumLang is not reused.
  • The goal must not be weakened to the bare equivalence: polynomial-time computability of the reduction is part of the statement. The one-copy-per-job encoding of the target is ruled out: the paper does not claim polynomiality for it, and the goal uses the multiplicity encoding instead.
  • Welcome contributions: proofs of the claims, a reusable lemma that idle time can be removed for regular criteria, and Turing-machine constructions for arithmetic on binary numerals, which the sibling missions of this series also need.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://ir.cwi.nl/pub/9725 , https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • E. L. Lawler, A "pseudopolynomial" algorithm for sequencing jobs to minimize total tardiness, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 331–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70742-8
  • J. Du, J. Y.-T. Leung, Minimizing total tardiness on one machine is NP-hard, Mathematics of Operations Research 15 (1990) 483–495. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.3.483
  • S. Cook, The P versus NP problem, Clay Mathematics Institute problem description, 2000. https://www.claymath.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pvsnp.pdf
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Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 2: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Maximum Lateness, Weighted Number of Late Jobs, and Weighted Completion Time with DeadlinesResearch Paper

Motivation

Deterministic machine scheduling was one of the first application areas of the theory of NP-completeness. After Cook (1971) and Karp (1972) showed that a large family of combinatorial problems are polynomially equivalent, Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan set out to locate the boundary between the polynomially solvable and the NP-complete scheduling problems. Their report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, Report BW 43/75, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) introduced the four-field notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣kn|m|\ell,\lambda|kn∣m∣ℓ,λ∣k that, in refined form, is still the standard classification of scheduling problems, and proved NP-completeness of the "easiest" hard problems by explicit reductions.

Single-machine problems with due dates sit right at that boundary. Minimizing the maximum lateness Lmax⁡L_{\max}Lmax​ is solved by Jackson's earliest-due-date rule (1955), and minimizing the number of late jobs by Moore's algorithm (1968). Theorem 4 of the report shows that small changes to these problems — one release date, job weights, or due dates turned into deadlines under a weighted completion-time objective — make them NP-complete, by reduction from KNAPSACK. This mission formalizes four of those reductions, parts (b), (c), (e) and (f) of Theorem 4.

Timeline, as far as this mission is concerned:

  • 1955: Jackson — n∣1∣∣Lmax⁡n|1||L_{\max}n∣1∣∣Lmax​ is solved by sequencing in order of nondecreasing due dates.
  • 1968: Moore — n∣1∣∣∑Ujn|1||\sum U_jn∣1∣∣∑Uj​ (unit weights, no release dates) is solvable in polynomial time.
  • 1972: Karp — KNAPSACK (in the subset-sum form used here) is NP-complete; Karp also notes the reduction to n∣1∣∣∑wjUjn|1||\sum w_jU_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Uj​, which the report cites for part (e).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan — Theorem 4: KNAPSACK reduces to ten scheduling problems, including the four single-machine problems of this mission.

Setting

A single-machine instance consists of n≥1n\ge1n≥1 jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​. Job JjJ_jJj​ needs pj1p_{j1}pj1​ units of processing on the machine M1M_1M1​, has a weight wjw_jwj​, a release date rjr_jrj​ and a due date djd_jdj​; all data are nonnegative integers. A schedule assigns to each job a starting time Bj≥rjB_j\ge r_jBj​≥rj​ such that the occupied intervals [Bj,Bj+pj1)[B_j,B_j+p_{j1})[Bj​,Bj​+pj1​) of distinct jobs are disjoint. Idle time is allowed; a job with pj1=0p_{j1}=0pj1​=0 occupies an empty interval. The completion time is Cj=Bj+pj1C_j=B_j+p_{j1}Cj​=Bj​+pj1​, the lateness is Lj=Cj−djL_j=C_j-d_jLj​=Cj​−dj​ (possibly negative), and UjU_jUj​ is 000 if Cj≤djC_j\le d_jCj​≤dj​ and 111 otherwise. The criteria are

Lmax⁡=max⁡jLj,∑wjCj=∑j=1nwjCj,∑wjUj=∑j=1nwjUj.L_{\max}=\max_j L_j,\qquad \sum w_jC_j=\sum_{j=1}^n w_jC_j,\qquad \sum w_jU_j=\sum_{j=1}^n w_jU_j .Lmax​=jmax​Lj​,∑wj​Cj​=j=1∑n​wj​Cj​,∑wj​Uj​=j=1∑n​wj​Uj​.

The problem class is written in the λ\lambdaλ field: by default every rj=0r_j=0rj​=0; rn≥0r_n\ge0rn​≥0 allows a nonzero release date for the last job JnJ_nJn​ only; wj=1w_j=1wj​=1 fixes unit weights; Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0 admits only schedules that meet every due date. A problem is turned into a yes/no question by asking whether a schedule with value ≤y\le y≤y exists.

KNAPSACK (Theorem 2(b) of the report): given positive integers a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b, is there a subset S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} with ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b? Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​.

A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP whose answer is the same.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(b), (c), (e), (f)

KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣Lmax⁡≤0∣∑wjCj,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn≥0∣Lmax⁡,\mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|L_{\max}\le0|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j,\quad \mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|r_n\ge0|L_{\max},KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣Lmax​≤0∣∑wj​Cj​,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn​≥0∣Lmax​, KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wjUj,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjUj,\mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1||\textstyle\sum w_jU_j,\quad \mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jU_j ,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wj​Uj​,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Uj​,

as polynomial-time many-one reductions between languages of binary strings.

Milestones: the four yes-instance equivalences

For positive a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b with 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A, and the paper's constructions:

  • 4(c): n=t+1n=t+1n=t+1; rj=0r_j=0rj​=0, pj1=ajp_{j1}=a_jpj1​=aj​, dj=A+1d_j=A+1dj​=A+1 for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T; rn=br_n=brn​=b, pn1=1p_{n1}=1pn1​=1, dn=b+1d_n=b+1dn​=b+1. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0.
  • 4(f): the same instance with unit weights; KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has ∑Uj≤0\sum U_j\le0∑Uj​≤0.
  • 4(e): n=tn=tn=t; pj1=wj=ajp_{j1}=w_j=a_jpj1​=wj​=aj​, dj=bd_j=bdj​=b. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has ∑wjUj≤A−b\sum w_jU_j\le A-b∑wj​Uj​≤A−b.
  • 4(b): n=t+1n=t+1n=t+1; pj1=wj=ajp_{j1}=w_j=a_jpj1​=wj​=aj​, dj=A+1d_j=A+1dj​=A+1 for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T; pn1=1p_{n1}=1pn1​=1, wn=0w_n=0wn​=0, dn=b+1d_n=b+1dn​=b+1. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule meeting all due dates has
∑wjCj≤y=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak+A−b.\sum w_jC_j\le y=\sum_{j,k\in T,\ j\le k}a_ja_k+A-b .∑wj​Cj​≤y=j,k∈T, j≤k∑​aj​ak​+A−b.

Significance

The result. Combined with the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK, the four reductions show that the four problems are NP-hard (in the ordinary sense; they admit pseudo-polynomial algorithms). Part (c) shows that Jackson's rule cannot be extended to a single nonzero release date unless P = NP; part (f) does the same for Moore's algorithm; part (e) explains why weights are essential in the late-jobs problem; part (b) shows that deadlines turn the weighted completion-time problem, solved by Smith's ratio rule without them, into a hard one. These are entries of the complexity tables that every later scheduling classification builds on.

Formalizing it. The reductions are classical and proved on paper, in a few lines each: for (c), (e) and (f) the report gives only the construction and a figure. None of them has a machine-checked proof. A complete formalization supplies the explicit equivalence over all feasible schedules (including schedules with idle time and arbitrary processing order), the handling of the inputs the proof sets aside by "we may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A", and the polynomial-time computability of the constructions in a Turing-machine model.

Difficulty

Each equivalence has an easy direction: a subset SSS with sum bbb gives the schedule "jobs of SSS, then JnJ_nJn​, then the rest" (Figures 4 and 7 of the report). The other direction must rule out every feasible schedule, not only the idle-free ones in the displayed order. The report gives no argument for this direction in (c), (e) and (f), and for (b) only a computation for idle-free schedules of one shape. The equivalences are false outside 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A in some cases (for (c), any b>Ab>Ab>A makes every schedule on time), so the goal's reduction must treat those inputs separately.

The heavier part is polynomial-time computability: the reduction must be a function on strings, computed by a one-tape Turing machine within a polynomial number of steps, that parses a binary-coded KNAPSACK instance, computes AAA and the threshold (for (b), a sum of O(t2)O(t^2)O(t2) products), and writes the coded scheduling instance — and maps malformed strings outside the target language.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Jobs are Fin n (0-based; JnJ_nJn​ is the last index), with n>0n>0n>0 in each target language. Starting times are natural numbers: Section 3 computes them from processing orders on integer data, and since all criteria here are regular and release dates survive left shifts, real starting times give the same yes-instances. Feasibility requires disjoint occupied intervals, including empty intervals when pj1=0p_{j1}=0pj1​=0. Idle time is allowed. Lateness is an integer.
  • Problem classes are binding. rn≥0r_n\ge0rn​≥0 means at least one job and release date 000 for every job except the last; Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0 in (b) is a constraint on schedules, not the criterion. Instances outside the class are not in the target language.
  • Thresholds. y∈Ny\in\mathbb Ny∈N in all four languages; for Lmax⁡L_{\max}Lmax​ this restricts to nonnegative thresholds, enough for the paper's y=0y=0y=0. "Lmax⁡≤yL_{\max}\le yLmax​≤y" is stated as "Lj≤yL_j\le yLj​≤y for all jjj".
  • Codes. An instance with threshold yyy is the list nnn, then pj1,wj,rj,djp_{j1},w_j,r_j,d_jpj1​,wj​,rj​,dj​ per job, then yyy, each number in binary.
  • Reducibility. "Reducible" (Section 2) is read as Karp reducibility, CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs. The alphabet and binary number codes are those of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann); its SUBSET SUM language is not reused because it admits zero sizes, while the paper's KNAPSACK is over positive integers.
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases. "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" becomes a hypothesis of each milestone and an obligation on the goal's reduction. "Cf. reduction (i) and Figure 4", "Cf. Karp [19] and Figure 7" and "The equivalence follows immediately" become the stated equivalences over all feasible schedules. Reduction (c) does not specify weights; the shared construction uses unit weights.
  • Not trivializable. The equivalences are stated for the paper's explicit constructions, not for an existentially chosen instance; the target languages enforce the problem class; and the goal demands polynomial-time computability, not only the equivalence.
  • Infrastructure. A Turing-machine library for arithmetic on binary codes (parsing, addition, multiplication, comparison) is reusable across all seven missions of this series and across every reduction posed in the same framework. Contributions of such general lemmas are welcome.

Parts (a), (d) and (g)–(j) of Theorem 4 are formalized in other missions of this series.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum, Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; journal version: J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in: Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, Proc. 3rd ACM STOC, 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • J. M. Moore, An n job, one machine sequencing algorithm for minimizing the number of late jobs, Management Science 15 (1968) 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.1.102
  • J. R. Jackson, Scheduling a production line to minimize maximum tardiness, Research Report 43, Management Science Research Project, UCLA, 1955.
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 1: PARTITION Reduces to Makespan and to Weighted Completion Time on Two Identical MachinesResearch Paper

Motivation

Deterministic machine scheduling asks how to process a set of jobs on a set of machines so that an overall criterion, such as the time at which the last job finishes, is as small as possible. In the early 1970s many such problems had efficient algorithms (Johnson's rule for the two-machine flow shop, Smith's ratio rule for a single machine, Lawler's rule under precedence constraints), while others resisted every attempt. The report of Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) drew the line between the two groups systematically. It fixed the four-field notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣kn|m|\ell,\lambda|kn∣m∣ℓ,λ∣k that the scheduling literature still uses, and it proved NP-completeness of the "easiest" hard problems by explicit reductions in the sense of Karp.

The first family of reductions in the report, Theorem 3, concerns the simplest machine environment beyond a single machine: two identical machines. It shows that already there, minimizing the makespan and minimizing the total weighted completion time are as hard as PARTITION. These two reductions are simplified versions of reductions given by Bruno, Coffman and Sethi (1974), reference [3] of the report.

Setting

PARTITION. Given positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​, decide whether there is a subset SSS of T={1,…,t}T=\{1,\dots,t\}T={1,…,t} with

∑j∈Saj=∑j∈T−Saj.\sum_{j\in S}a_j=\sum_{j\in T-S}a_j .j∈S∑​aj​=j∈T−S∑​aj​.

Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​ for the total.

Two identical machines. There are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and two machines M1,M2M_1,M_2M1​,M2​. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pj∈Np_j\in\mathbb Npj​∈N and a weight wj∈Nw_j\in\mathbb Nwj​∈N, and must be processed without interruption on one machine of its choice; all jobs are available at time 000. A schedule assigns to every job a machine and a starting time Bj∈NB_j\in\mathbb NBj​∈N; its completion time is Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​. A schedule is feasible if no two jobs on the same machine are processed at the same time, i.e. the intervals [Bj,Bj+pj)[B_j,B_j+p_j)[Bj​,Bj​+pj​) on each machine are pairwise disjoint. Idle time is allowed. Two criteria are considered:

Cmax⁡=max⁡jCj,∑jwjCj.C_{\max}=\max_j C_j,\qquad \sum_j w_jC_j .Cmax​=jmax​Cj​,j∑​wj​Cj​.

The problems n∣2∣I∣Cmax⁡n|2|I|C_{\max}n∣2∣I∣Cmax​ and n∣2∣I∣∑wjCjn|2|I|\sum w_jC_jn∣2∣I∣∑wj​Cj​ ask for a feasible schedule minimizing the respective criterion.

Reducibility. Following Section 2 of the report, each problem is replaced by its recognition version: given an instance and a threshold yyy, is there a feasible schedule with value ≤y\le y≤y? A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, written P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer. Instances are written as words over a finite alphabet, with every number in binary.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

PARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣Cmax⁡andPARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣∑wjCj.\text{PARTITION}\propto n|2|I|C_{\max}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \text{PARTITION}\propto n|2|I|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j .PARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣Cmax​andPARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣∑wj​Cj​.

Both reductions use the same instance shape: n=tn=tn=t jobs with pj=ajp_j=a_jpj​=aj​.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3(a), equivalence. With pj=ajp_j=a_jpj​=aj​ and y=12Ay=\tfrac12Ay=21​A: PARTITION has a solution iff some feasible schedule has Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y.
  2. Ordering independence. With pj=wj=ajp_j=w_j=a_jpj​=wj​=aj​, if SSS is the set of jobs on M1M_1M1​ and each machine works without idle time from 000, then ∑wjCj=k(S)\sum w_jC_j=k(S)∑wj​Cj​=k(S) for every order of the jobs, where
k(S)=∑j,k∈S, j≤kajak+∑j,k∈T−S, j≤kajak;k(S)=\sum_{j,k\in S,\,j\le k}a_ja_k+\sum_{j,k\in T-S,\,j\le k}a_ja_k ;k(S)=j,k∈S,j≤k∑​aj​ak​+j,k∈T−S,j≤k∑​aj​ak​;

every feasible schedule with this assignment has value at least k(S)k(S)k(S). 3. The identity for k(S)k(S)k(S). With c=∑j∈Saj−12Ac=\sum_{j\in S}a_j-\tfrac12Ac=∑j∈S​aj​−21​A,

k(S)=k(T)−(∑j∈Saj)(∑j∈T−Saj)=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak−(12A+c)(12A−c)=y+c2.k(S)=k(T)-\Big(\sum_{j\in S}a_j\Big)\Big(\sum_{j\in T-S}a_j\Big)=\sum_{j,k\in T,\,j\le k}a_ja_k-\big(\tfrac12A+c\big)\big(\tfrac12A-c\big)=y+c^2 .k(S)=k(T)−(j∈S∑​aj​)(j∈T−S∑​aj​)=j,k∈T,j≤k∑​aj​ak​−(21​A+c)(21​A−c)=y+c2.
  1. Theorem 3(b), equivalence. With pj=wj=ajp_j=w_j=a_jpj​=wj​=aj​ and y=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak−14A2y=\sum_{j,k\in T,\,j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2y=∑j,k∈T,j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2: PARTITION has a solution iff some feasible schedule has ∑wjCj≤y\sum w_jC_j\le y∑wj​Cj​≤y.

Significance

The result. Since PARTITION is NP-complete (Karp 1972), Theorem 3 shows that both problems are NP-hard with only two machines and a single operation per job; their recognition versions are NP-complete. Together with the single-machine and shop results in the rest of the report, it places the boundary of tractability in deterministic scheduling. The makespan problem P2∥Cmax⁡P2\|C_{\max}P2∥Cmax​ became a standard source problem for later hardness proofs and a standard target for pseudo-polynomial algorithms and approximation schemes. The weighted completion time result contrasts with the single-machine case, which Smith's ratio rule solves in polynomial time.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and fully proved on paper; the report prints the constructions and, for (b), a short calculation. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists. The mission produces (i) a precise model of nonpreemptive schedules on two identical machines with integer start times and idle time allowed, (ii) the two yes-instance equivalences with the paper's rational thresholds, (iii) the ordering-independence statement for pj=wjp_j=w_jpj​=wj​ behind part (b), and (iv) the polynomial-time computability of the reductions in a Turing machine model. Part (iv) is the formal content of "reducible" and is missing from the paper.

Difficulty

For part (a) the mathematics is short. The paper treats it as evident; a formal proof must still handle schedules with idle time and the case of odd AAA, where 12A\tfrac12A21​A is not an integer.

Part (b) rests on the claim that, when pj=wjp_j=w_jpj​=wj​, the value ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ does not depend on the order of the jobs on a machine. For a single machine without idle time this is a symmetric double sum. A recognition-problem proof also needs the converse direction: no schedule with idle time beats the non-idle one, so every feasible schedule with assignment SSS has value at least k(S)k(S)k(S). The paper cites this rather than proving it.

The step the paper leaves out entirely is polynomiality. The constructions copy the input and compute 12A\tfrac12A21​A or ∑j≤kajak−14A2\sum_{j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2∑j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2, and in a one-tape Turing machine model with an explicit polynomial time bound this needs binary arithmetic (sums, products, a floor) carried out on the tape. It also needs a decoder that rejects malformed words and lists containing a zero. This is routine in principle but long in practice.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Jobs are Fin n and machines Fin 2 (machine 0 is M1M_1M1​). Starting times are natural numbers. Section 3 of the report computes them from processing orders on nonnegative integer data, and both criteria are regular, so real starting times would give the same yes-instances. Processing times may be zero; a zero-length job occupies the empty interval. Schedules may contain idle time.
  • Criteria. "Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y" is stated as Cj≤yC_j\le yCj​≤y for every job, which equals max⁡jCj≤y\max_jC_j\le ymaxj​Cj​≤y for n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and avoids a supremum. ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ is a finite sum in N\mathbb NN.
  • Languages. PARTITION is the set of binary codes of lists of positive integers that admit a partition; a code of a list with a zero entry is not in the language. A target word codes nnn, the processing times (and weights, job by job), and a threshold y∈Ny\in\mathbb Ny∈N. The number of machines is fixed by the class and not coded. Every coded instance is in the class, so the language admits nothing outside it.
  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs (Cook's one-tape Turing machines, polynomial-time many-one reductions). The alphabet BSym and the binary code encNats are reused from the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann). Its PARTITION language is not reused, because it allows zero sizes.
  • Thresholds. The milestones state the paper's thresholds 12A\tfrac12A21​A and ∑j≤kajak−14A2\sum_{j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2∑j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2 as real numbers, exactly as printed. The goal's reduction must write a natural-number threshold; all schedule values are integers, so the floor of the printed threshold gives the same yes-instances.
  • Explicit readings. The equivalence of (a) is not printed; the report says on p. 14 that such equivalences are "trivial or clear" where not proved. "Only depends on the choice of SSS" is stated as two facts: equality for non-idle schedules and a lower bound for all feasible schedules. "It is easily seen (cf. Figure 1)" is the three-step identity, one equality per printed step. k(S)k(S)k(S) is defined by its closed form, and its link to schedules is a milestone.
  • Ruled out. A target language whose yes-instances are defined through PARTITION, an equivalence for some instance rather than the paper's construction, and a goal that drops polynomial-time computability would all make the goal vacuous or different. The statements here use the constructions as printed and Cook's reducibility.
  • Welcome contributions. Proofs of the four milestones; a library of polynomial-time Turing machine programs for binary arithmetic and list decoding over BSym, which every mission of this series needs and which is reusable for other reductions on the platform.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975. https://ir.cwi.nl/pub/9725/9725D.pdf
  • J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Complexity of machine scheduling problems, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • J. Bruno, E. G. Coffman Jr., R. Sethi, Scheduling independent tasks to reduce mean finishing time, Communications of the ACM 17 (1974) 382–387. https://doi.org/10.1145/361011.361064
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • W. E. Smith, Various optimizers for single-stage production, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3 (1956) 59–66. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030106
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