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Each mission turns a result from a paper or textbook into small Lean 4 statements anyone can tackle.

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

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Campaigns (experimental)

See all campaigns →

Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. A high-probability approximation guarantee is a separate claim requiring an explicit probability bound. The optimum includes entangled states. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record
1 prover on it3 of 3 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
41 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Dynamic ProgrammingMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning I: Approximate Policy Iteration with Max-Norm Evaluation Error ε Is Eventually Within 2ε/(1−γ)² of OptimalTextbook

Motivation

Most practical reinforcement-learning methods do not compute value functions exactly. They alternate between estimating a value function from data, usually with a parametric approximator, and acting greedily with respect to that estimate. Approximate value iteration and approximate policy iteration are the two classical schemes of this kind, and their error analysis decides how accuracy in the estimation step translates into quality of the policies produced. Chapter 3 of S. M. Kakade's thesis On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning (University College London, 2003) collects the basic guarantees, developed from Bertsekas (Dynamic Programming: Deterministic and Stochastic Models, 1987) for greedy policies, Singh and Yee (1994), and Bertsekas and Tsitsiklis, Neuro-Dynamic Programming (Athena Scientific, 1996). The bounds are stated in terms of the worst-case (max-norm) error of the evaluation step, and the thesis uses them to argue that max-norm error is the obstacle to state-space-independent sample complexity results for these methods, which motivates the later chapters of the thesis.

Setting

A finite discounted Markov decision process consists of a finite set of states SSS, a finite nonempty set of actions AAA, a transition kernel P(s′∣s,a)P(s'\mid s,a)P(s′∣s,a) (for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a) a probability distribution over SSS), a deterministic reward r(s,a)∈[0,1]r(s,a)\in[0,1]r(s,a)∈[0,1], and a discount factor 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. A policy π(a∣s)\pi(a\mid s)π(a∣s) is a probability distribution over actions for every state; a deterministic policy is a map f:S→Af:S\to Af:S→A, identified with the policy that plays f(s)f(s)f(s) with probability one.

Values are normalized: the value of π\piπ at sss is

Vπ(s)=(1−γ) E[∑t≥0γtr(st,at) ∣ π, s0=s],V_\pi(s)=(1-\gamma)\,\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t\ge0}\gamma^t r(s_t,a_t)\,\Big|\,\pi,\ s_0=s\Big],Vπ​(s)=(1−γ)E[t≥0∑​γtr(st​,at​)​π, s0​=s],

and the state-action value is Qπ(s,a)=(1−γ)r(s,a)+γ Es′∼P(⋅∣s,a)[Vπ(s′)]Q_\pi(s,a)=(1-\gamma)r(s,a)+\gamma\,\mathbb E_{s'\sim P(\cdot\mid s,a)}[V_\pi(s')]Qπ​(s,a)=(1−γ)r(s,a)+γEs′∼P(⋅∣s,a)​[Vπ​(s′)]. With rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1], every value lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. An optimal policy π∗\pi^*π∗ has Vπ∗(s)≥Vπ(s)V_{\pi^*}(s)\ge V_\pi(s)Vπ∗​(s)≥Vπ​(s) for every policy π\piπ and state sss; write V∗=Vπ∗V^*=V_{\pi^*}V∗=Vπ∗​ and Q∗=Qπ∗Q^*=Q_{\pi^*}Q∗=Qπ∗​. The max norm is ∥x∥∞=max⁡s∣x(s)∣\|x\|_\infty=\max_s|x(s)|∥x∥∞​=maxs​∣x(s)∣ on state vectors and max⁡s,a∣x(s,a)∣\max_{s,a}|x(s,a)|maxs,a​∣x(s,a)∣ on state-action arrays.

The backup operator is [BJ](s)=max⁡a((1−γ)r(s,a)+γ Es′∼P(⋅∣s,a)[J(s′)])[BJ](s)=\max_a\big((1-\gamma)r(s,a)+\gamma\,\mathbb E_{s'\sim P(\cdot\mid s,a)}[J(s')]\big)[BJ](s)=maxa​((1−γ)r(s,a)+γEs′∼P(⋅∣s,a)​[J(s′)]). A deterministic policy fff is greedy with respect to QQQ if f(s)∈arg⁡max⁡aQ(s,a)f(s)\in\arg\max_a Q(s,a)f(s)∈argmaxa​Q(s,a) for every sss.

  • γ\gammaγ-approximate value iteration produces vectors J0=0,J1,J2,…J_0=0,J_1,J_2,\dotsJ0​=0,J1​,J2​,… with ∥Jt−BJt−1∥∞≤ε\|J_t-BJ_{t-1}\|_\infty\le\varepsilon∥Jt​−BJt−1​∥∞​≤ε, and greedy policies πt\pi_tπt​ for the lookahead (1−γ)r(s,a)+γ Es′[Jt(s′)](1-\gamma)r(s,a)+\gamma\,\mathbb E_{s'}[J_t(s')](1−γ)r(s,a)+γEs′​[Jt​(s′)].
  • γ\gammaγ-approximate policy iteration starts from any deterministic π0\pi_0π0​, forms an estimate Q~t\tilde Q_tQ~​t​ of QπtQ_{\pi_t}Qπt​​ with ∥Q~t−Qπt∥∞≤ε\|\tilde Q_t-Q_{\pi_t}\|_\infty\le\varepsilon∥Q~​t​−Qπt​​∥∞​≤ε, and takes πt+1\pi_{t+1}πt+1​ greedy with respect to Q~t\tilde Q_tQ~​t​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2.2 (approximate policy iteration)

lim sup⁡t→∞∥V∗−Vπt∥∞≤2ε(1−γ)2.\limsup_{t\to\infty}\|V^*-V_{\pi_t}\|_\infty\le\frac{2\varepsilon}{(1-\gamma)^2}.t→∞limsup​∥V∗−Vπt​​∥∞​≤(1−γ)22ε​.

The policies need not converge; the statement bounds where they end up.

Milestones

  • Theorem 3.1.1: if ∥Q~−Q∗∥∞≤ε\|\tilde Q-Q^*\|_\infty\le\varepsilon∥Q~​−Q∗∥∞​≤ε and π\piπ is greedy for Q~\tilde QQ~​, then Vπ(s)≥V∗(s)−2ε1−γV_\pi(s)\ge V^*(s)-\frac{2\varepsilon}{1-\gamma}Vπ​(s)≥V∗(s)−1−γ2ε​ for all sss.
  • Lemma 3.2.3: ∥V∗−Vπt+1∥∞≤γ∥V∗−Vπt∥∞+2ε1−γ\|V^*-V_{\pi_{t+1}}\|_\infty\le\gamma\|V^*-V_{\pi_t}\|_\infty+\frac{2\varepsilon}{1-\gamma}∥V∗−Vπt+1​​∥∞​≤γ∥V∗−Vπt​​∥∞​+1−γ2ε​.
  • Rate of approximate policy iteration (p. 41): ∥V∗−Vπt∥∞≤γt+2ε(1−γ)2\|V^*-V_{\pi_t}\|_\infty\le\gamma^t+\frac{2\varepsilon}{(1-\gamma)^2}∥V∗−Vπt​​∥∞​≤γt+(1−γ)22ε​.
  • Contraction of the backup (p. 26): ∥BJ−BJ′∥∞≤γ∥J−J′∥∞\|BJ-BJ'\|_\infty\le\gamma\|J-J'\|_\infty∥BJ−BJ′∥∞​≤γ∥J−J′∥∞​.
  • Approximate value iteration (p. 40): ∥V∗−Jt∥∞≤γt+ε1−γ\|V^*-J_t\|_\infty\le\gamma^t+\frac{\varepsilon}{1-\gamma}∥V∗−Jt​∥∞​≤γt+1−γε​.
  • Rate of approximate value iteration (p. 41): ∥V∗−Vπt∥∞≤2γt1−γ+2ε(1−γ)2\|V^*-V_{\pi_t}\|_\infty\le\frac{2\gamma^t}{1-\gamma}+\frac{2\varepsilon}{(1-\gamma)^2}∥V∗−Vπt​​∥∞​≤1−γ2γt​+(1−γ)22ε​.
  • Theorem 3.2.1: the same lim sup bound 2ε(1−γ)2\frac{2\varepsilon}{(1-\gamma)^2}(1−γ)22ε​ for approximate value iteration.

Significance

The results give the standard performance guarantee for greedy approximate dynamic programming: an evaluation error of ε\varepsilonε in max norm costs at most 2ε/(1−γ)22\varepsilon/(1-\gamma)^22ε/(1−γ)2 in max-norm suboptimality, uniformly over the asymptotic set of policies, with a geometric rate of approach. Example 3.1.2 of the thesis shows that the factor 2ε/(1−γ)2\varepsilon/(1-\gamma)2ε/(1−γ) of Theorem 3.1.1 is attained, so the greedy step itself cannot be improved; the two factors of the horizon 1/(1−γ)1/(1-\gamma)1/(1−γ) in the limit bound are the reason the thesis turns to other error measures in later chapters.

All the statements are classical and proved in the literature (Bertsekas–Tsitsiklis 1996, Chapter 6, in the unnormalized model and with a factor γ\gammaγ to spare in the limit bounds); Lemma 3.2.3 and Theorem 3.2.2 are stated in the thesis without proof. To our knowledge none has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces formal proofs in the normalized model shared with the formalization of Kakade–Langford (2002) on this platform, so later chapters of the series (conservative policy iteration, policy search) can compare against them.

Difficulty

Approximate policy iteration is not monotone: with evaluation errors, Vπt+1V_{\pi_{t+1}}Vπt+1​​ can be worse than VπtV_{\pi_t}Vπt​​ at some states, so the argument of exact policy iteration, which uses Vπt+1≥VπtV_{\pi_{t+1}}\ge V_{\pi_t}Vπt+1​​≥Vπt​​ everywhere, does not apply. The difficulty of Lemma 3.2.3 is to control the distance to optimality without improvement at each step, combining the greedy step with the lack of monotonicity of the new policy's value; the thesis calls the proof of Theorem 3.2.2 "somewhat technical" and omits it. A second, mechanical difficulty is that the normalized value VπV_\piVπ​ is defined as an infinite series, so its Bellman equation Vπ(s)=Qπ(s,π(s))V_\pi(s)=Q_\pi(s,\pi(s))Vπ​(s)=Qπ​(s,π(s)), the optimality equation V∗=BV∗V^*=BV^*V∗=BV∗ and the bound 0≤Vπ≤10\le V_\pi\le10≤Vπ​≤1 have to be derived from that definition before any of the recursions can be run.

Formalization scope

  • The model is the published normalized model ApproxOptRL.Shared.Model: value P r γ π is VπV_\piVπ​ (defined as (1−γ)(1-\gamma)(1−γ) times a tsum), qValue is QπQ_\piQπ​. SSS and AAA are finite types, AAA nonempty; PPP satisfies IsTransitionKernel; every statement assumes 0≤r≤10\le r\le10≤r≤1 and 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1.
  • The optimal policy is a binder π∗\pi^*π∗ with IsOptimalPolicy P r γ πstar (a stationary stochastic policy dominating every stationary stochastic policy at every state). Such a policy exists for every finite MDP (p. 26 of the thesis), and for finite MDPs it is optimal among all policies.
  • Policies of the runs are deterministic, S → A, and are evaluated through the indicator policy detPolicy. "Greedy" is the relation ∀ s a, Q s a ≤ Q s (f s): every tie-breaking rule is covered.
  • The runs are sequences indexed by ℕ, with the greedy and accuracy conditions as hypotheses at every index; the value-iteration condition is written for indices t+1t+1t+1 and ttt.
  • ∥⋅∥∞\|\cdot\|_\infty∥⋅∥∞​ is Mathlib's sup norm on S → ℝ and S → A → ℝ.
  • The lim sup statements are in ε\varepsilonε–NNN form: for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 the bound plus δ\deltaδ holds eventually.
  • Ruled out: the accuracy hypothesis is stated against QπtQ_{\pi_t}Qπt​​, the value of the current policy, not against Q∗Q^*Q∗, and the greedy relation genuinely constrains πt+1\pi_{t+1}πt+1​; with either changed, the hypotheses would be unsatisfiable or the policies unconstrained and the theorem empty.
  • Infrastructure needed and reusable beyond this mission: the Bellman equation of the normalized value for indicator policies, V∗=BV∗V^*=BV^*V∗=BV∗, monotonicity and contraction of policy-evaluation and backup operators in the normalized model, and the bound 0≤Vπ≤10\le V_\pi\le10≤Vπ​≤1. Contributions of these lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. M. Kakade, On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning, PhD thesis, Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit, University College London, 2003. https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10100726/
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis, Neuro-Dynamic Programming, Athena Scientific, 1996. ISBN 1-886529-10-8.
  • S. P. Singh and R. C. Yee, An upper bound on the loss from approximate optimal-value functions, Machine Learning 16 (1994), 227–233. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00993104
  • S. M. Kakade and J. Langford, Approximately optimal approximate reinforcement learning, ICML 2002. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/645531.656005
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Models for Minimax Stochastic Linear Optimization Problems with Risk Aversion 2: With Random Objective, Z(x) = Z_D(x) = Z_DD(x) and Moment-Matching Distributions Attain Z(x) AsymptoticallyResearch Paper

Motivation

Two-stage stochastic linear programming chooses a first-stage decision xxx before a random parameter is revealed and pays an optimal second-stage (recourse) cost afterwards. The classical model fixes the distribution of the random parameter. In practice it is rarely known beyond a few moments, and a decision maker who is averse to risk does not evaluate the recourse cost by its plain expectation. Bertsimas, Doan, Natarajan and Teo (Math. Oper. Res. 35(3), 2010) take both points seriously: the distribution is only known to belong to the class of all distributions with given mean and second-moment matrix, the cost is passed through a convex piecewise-linear disutility, and the decision is evaluated against the worst distribution in the class.

Moment-based worst-case bounds go back to Scarf's newsvendor and to the Chebyshev-type bounds of the moment problem (Isii 1962; Bertsimas and Popescu 2005). Delage and Ye (Oper. Res. 58(3), 2010) showed that a broad class of such minimax problems is solvable in polynomial time by the ellipsoid method. For the case in which the uncertainty sits in the objective of the second-stage linear program, this paper gives a single semidefinite program (its Theorem 2.1, the subject of a companion mission) and, in §2.2, identifies the distributions that come arbitrarily close to the worst case. This mission is about the second result.

Setting

The first-stage region is X={x∈Rn:Ax=b, x≥0}X=\{x\in\mathbb R^n : Ax=b,\ x\ge0\}X={x∈Rn:Ax=b, x≥0}. For x∈Xx\in Xx∈X the recourse set is X(x)={w∈Rd:Ww=h−Tx, w≥0}X(x)=\{w\in\mathbb R^d : Ww=h-Tx,\ w\ge0\}X(x)={w∈Rd:Ww=h−Tx, w≥0} and the second-stage cost of an objective vector q∈Rdq\in\mathbb R^dq∈Rd is

Q(q,x)=min⁡w∈X(x)q′w.\mathcal Q(q,x)=\min_{w\in X(x)} q'w .Q(q,x)=w∈X(x)min​q′w.

The disutility is U(t)=max⁡k=1,…,K(αkt+βk)\mathbb U(t)=\max_{k=1,\dots,K}(\alpha_k t+\beta_k)U(t)=maxk=1,…,K​(αk​t+βk​) with αk≥0\alpha_k\ge0αk​≥0. The moment class P\mathcal PP consists of the distributions PPP of a random vector q~∈Rd\tilde q\in\mathbb R^dq~​∈Rd with EP[q~]=μ\mathbb E_P[\tilde q]=\muEP​[q~​]=μ and EP[q~q~′]=Q\mathbb E_P[\tilde q\tilde q']=QEP​[q~​q~​′]=Q. The worst-case value at xxx is

Z(x)=sup⁡P∈PEP[U(Q(q~,x))].Z(x)=\sup_{P\in\mathcal P}\mathbb E_P\big[\mathbb U(\mathcal Q(\tilde q,x))\big].Z(x)=P∈Psup​EP​[U(Q(q~​,x))].

Its dual (6) is

ZD(x)=min⁡Y,y,y0 Q⋅Y+μ′y+y0s.t.q′Yq+q′y+y0≥U(Q(q,x))  ∀q∈Rd,Z_D(x)=\min_{Y,y,y_0}\ Q\cdot Y+\mu'y+y_0\quad\text{s.t.}\quad q'Yq+q'y+y_0\ge\mathbb U(\mathcal Q(q,x))\ \ \forall q\in\mathbb R^d ,ZD​(x)=Y,y,y0​min​ Q⋅Y+μ′y+y0​s.t.q′Yq+q′y+y0​≥U(Q(q,x))  ∀q∈Rd,

with YYY symmetric and Q⋅Y=∑ijQijYijQ\cdot Y=\sum_{ij}Q_{ij}Y_{ij}Q⋅Y=∑ij​Qij​Yij​. Its semidefinite reformulation (8) has the dual (9):

ZDD(x)=max⁡ ∑k=1K(h−Tx)′pk+βkvk0s.t.∑k=1K(Vkvkvk′vk0)=(Qμμ′1), (Vkvkvk′vk0)⪰0, W′pk≤αkvk.Z_{DD}(x)=\max\ \sum_{k=1}^K (h-Tx)'p_k+\beta_kv_{k0}\quad\text{s.t.}\quad \sum_{k=1}^K\begin{pmatrix}V_k&v_k\\ v_k'&v_{k0}\end{pmatrix}=\begin{pmatrix}Q&\mu\\ \mu'&1\end{pmatrix},\ \begin{pmatrix}V_k&v_k\\ v_k'&v_{k0}\end{pmatrix}\succeq0,\ W'p_k\le\alpha_kv_k .ZDD​(x)=max k=1∑K​(h−Tx)′pk​+βk​vk0​s.t.k=1∑K​(Vk​vk′​​vk​vk0​​)=(Qμ′​μ1​), (Vk​vk′​​vk​vk0​​)⪰0, W′pk​≤αk​vk​.

Its variables are scaled conditional moments: vk0v_{k0}vk0​ is the probability that the kkkth piece of U\mathbb UU is active, and vkv_kvk​, VkV_kVk​ are the first and second moments of q~\tilde qq~​ on that event, multiplied by vk0v_{k0}vk0​.

The standing assumptions are Assumption 3, {p∈Rr:W′p≤q}≠∅\{p\in\mathbb R^r : W'p\le q\}\ne\emptyset{p∈Rr:W′p≤q}=∅ for every qqq, so that Q(q,x)\mathcal Q(q,x)Q(q,x) is finite, and Assumption 4, Q−μμ′≻0Q-\mu\mu'\succ0Q−μμ′≻0. Recourse sets are assumed nonempty.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2

For every x∈Xx\in Xx∈X there is a sequence Pj∈PP_j\in\mathcal PPj​∈P with EPj[U(Q(q~,x))]→Z(x)\mathbb E_{P_j}[\mathbb U(\mathcal Q(\tilde q,x))]\to Z(x)EPj​​[U(Q(q~​,x))]→Z(x), and

Z(x)=ZD(x)=ZDD(x),Z(x)=Z_D(x)=Z_{DD}(x),Z(x)=ZD​(x)=ZDD​(x),

where all three are finite optimal values: a supremum over a nonempty bounded-above set, an infimum over a nonempty bounded-below set, and a supremum over a nonempty bounded-above set.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.1: ZDD(x)≥Z(x)Z_{DD}(x)\ge Z(x)ZDD​(x)≥Z(x), in the form "each P∈PP\in\mathcal PP∈P gives a feasible point of (9) whose objective equals EP[U(Q)]\mathbb E_P[\mathbb U(\mathcal Q)]EP​[U(Q)]".
  2. (9) has an optimal solution.
  3. Q(⋅,x)\mathcal Q(\cdot,x)Q(⋅,x) is positively homogeneous and superadditive.
  4. If W′p≤αvW'p\le\alpha vW′p≤αv with α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0 then αQ(v,x)≥(h−Tx)′p\alpha\mathcal Q(v,x)\ge(h-Tx)'pαQ(v,x)≥(h−Tx)′p.
  5. Jensen: E[Q(r~,x)]≤Q(Er~,x)\mathbb E[\mathcal Q(\tilde r,x)]\le\mathcal Q(\mathbb E\tilde r,x)E[Q(r~,x)]≤Q(Er~,x), with Q(r~,x)\mathcal Q(\tilde r,x)Q(r~,x) integrable.
  6. An optimal solution of (9) can be chosen so that every block has vk0>0v_{k0}>0vk0​>0 or vanishes.
  7. Strong duality Z(x)=ZD(x)Z(x)=Z_D(x)Z(x)=ZD​(x) (§2.1).

Significance

Theorem 2.2 says that the semidefinite bound is tight and that the worst case is approached by explicit mixtures. With probability vk0v_{k0}vk0​ the cost vector sits at the conditional mean vk/vk0v_k/v_{k0}vk​/vk0​, and with a small probability it is perturbed by a large Gaussian. The construction tells which scenarios a minimax solution guards against. The paper's numerical section uses it to stress-test solutions computed under other distributional assumptions. For the risk-neutral case (K=1K=1K=1) the bound collapses to Jensen's bound min⁡w∈X(x)μ′w\min_{w\in X(x)}\mu'wminw∈X(x)​μ′w. For K>1K>1K>1 it is a combination of Jensen bounds, one per piece of the disutility.

Theorem 2.2 is proved in the paper; no part of it, nor the strong duality of the moment problem that it relies on, is formalized on the platform or, to our knowledge, elsewhere. The mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the identity Z=ZD=ZDDZ=Z_D=Z_{DD}Z=ZD​=ZDD​ and of the steps of the extremal construction. Several of these are reusable beyond this paper: weak and strong duality of moment problems, the existence of optimal solutions of moment-type semidefinite programs, and Jensen's inequality for the value function of a linear program.

Difficulty

Most of the argument is linear programming and bookkeeping. The step Z(x)=ZD(x)Z(x)=Z_D(x)Z(x)=ZD​(x) is a strong-duality theorem for an infinite-dimensional linear program over measures. The paper cites it from Isii's theory of the moment problem, and none of that theory exists in Mathlib. The construction of near-extremal distributions also needs care. A single distribution in P\mathcal PP generally cannot attain Z(x)Z(x)Z(x), so the bound is reached only along a family whose second moments are matched by rare, large perturbations. Lemma 2.1 needs measurable selections of an active piece of U\mathbb UU and of a dual optimal solution of the second-stage program as functions of qqq. When the optimal solution of (9) has zero-weight blocks, the mixture is undefined until the solution is first rearranged.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin d → ℝ, matrices Matrix (Fin r) (Fin d) ℝ, and distributions are probability measures on Fin d → ℝ with square-integrable coordinates. They are not densities as in the paper's (5). The moment class uses the published MomentDRO.Conf definitions, and E[q~q~′]\mathbb E[\tilde q\tilde q']E[q~​q~​′] is the uncentred second moment. The paper writes ppp both for the dimension of qqq and for dual vectors. Here the dimension is ddd and dual vectors are named π. Indices kkk are zero-based. Bordered matrices are Matrix.fromBlocks on Fin d ⊕ Fin 1 and ⪰0\succeq0⪰0 is Matrix.PosSemidef. Q\mathcal QQ is a real infimum and the optimal values are real sSup/sInf of value sets. Every statement that uses an optimal value also asserts IsLUB/IsGLB, so junk values cannot make a statement true.

As printed, Assumption 2 (complete recourse) and Assumption 3 for all qqq contradict each other whenever WWW has a row. The formalization keeps Assumption 3 for all qqq and replaces complete recourse by nonemptiness of X(x)X(x)X(x), which is what §2's proofs use. Assumption 1 is not used and is omitted. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable, for example by W=IW=IW=I, T=0T=0T=0, h=0h=0h=0, μ=0\mu=0μ=0 and Q=IQ=IQ=I.

The sequence clause of Theorem 2.2 alone holds for every finite supremum, so it does not capture the theorem. The goal therefore also asserts the equalities Z=ZD=ZDDZ=Z_D=Z_{DD}Z=ZD​=ZDD​, with all three values genuine, and these carry the content. A formalization that drops them, or states them only through junk values, is ruled out.

A complete development needs the duality theory of the moment problem, Jensen's inequality for concave functions on Rd\mathbb R^dRd, compactness arguments for semidefinite feasible sets, and multivariate Gaussian mixtures (ProbabilityTheory.multivariateGaussian in Mathlib). Proofs of individual milestones are welcome. So is a general moment-problem duality theorem from which strong_duality follows.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, X. V. Doan, K. Natarajan, C.-P. Teo, Models for Minimax Stochastic Linear Optimization Problems with Risk Aversion, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(3):580–602, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0445
  • E. Delage, Y. Ye, Distributionally Robust Optimization Under Moment Uncertainty with Application to Data-Driven Problems, Operations Research 58(3):595–612, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0741
  • K. Isii, On sharpness of Tchebycheff-type inequalities, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 14:185–197, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02868641
  • D. Bertsimas, I. Popescu, Optimal Inequalities in Probability Theory: A Convex Optimization Approach, SIAM Journal on Optimization 15(3):780–804, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623401399903
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Inventory Management of a Fast-Fashion Retail Network 2: The Tangent-Envelope Approximation of Expected Sales Is an Upper BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

Zara ships inventory from a central warehouse to each of its stores every week, and for a short-lived fashion item the warehouse holds a limited amount of each size. Deciding how many units of each size to ship to each store is therefore a constrained allocation problem whose objective is the expected sales a store will realize from a given inventory. Caro and Gallien (working paper, 2007; published in Operations Research, 2010) built such a model, embedded it in a weekly shipment optimization, and tested it in a field experiment in Zara's store network. The store-level sales model has one unusual feature, taken from Zara's practice: as soon as one of the major sizes of an item runs out, the whole item is removed from display, so stock-outs of different sizes interact.

The expected sales under that policy have no closed form usable inside a mixed integer program. The paper replaces them by an explicit piecewise-linear function and asserts that this replacement is an upper bound. This mission formalizes that claim, the chain of identities and inequalities that lead to it, and the paper's statement that its shipment program represents the approximation exactly.

Setting

A reference is offered in a finite set of sizes S=S+∪S−\mathcal S = \mathcal S^+ \cup \mathcal S^-S=S+∪S−, with major sizes S+\mathcal S^+S+ and minor sizes S−=S∖S+\mathcal S^- = \mathcal S \setminus \mathcal S^+S−=S∖S+. Sale opportunities for size sss follow a Poisson process Ns(t)N_s(t)Ns​(t) with rate λs>0\lambda_s > 0λs​>0, independent across sizes, where ttt is the time since the last replenishment and T>0T > 0T>0 is the time between replenishments.

Given an inventory vector q∈NSq \in \mathbb N^{\mathcal S}q∈NS, the virtual stockout time of size sss is τs(qs)=inf⁡{t≥0:Ns(t)=qs}\tau_s(q_s) = \inf\{t \ge 0 : N_s(t) = q_s\}τs​(qs​)=inf{t≥0:Ns​(t)=qs​}, and τA=min⁡s∈Aτs(qs)\tau_{\mathcal A} = \min_{s \in \mathcal A}\tau_s(q_s)τA​=mins∈A​τs​(qs​) for a set of sizes A\mathcal AA. Writing a∧b=min⁡(a,b)a \wedge b = \min(a,b)a∧b=min(a,b), the number of sales in one period is

G(q)=∑s∈S+Ns(τS+∧T)+∑s∈S−Ns(τS+∪{s}∧T),G(q) = \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^+} N_s(\tau_{\mathcal S^+} \wedge T) + \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^-} N_s(\tau_{\mathcal S^+ \cup \{s\}} \wedge T),G(q)=s∈S+∑​Ns​(τS+​∧T)+s∈S−∑​Ns​(τS+∪{s}​∧T),

since every size stops selling when the first major size runs out, and a minor size also stops when it runs out itself. The expected sales function is gλ(q)=E[G(q)]g_\lambda(q) = \mathbb E[G(q)]gλ​(q)=E[G(q)].

For the approximation, let γ(a,b)=∫0bva−1e−v dv\gamma(a,b) = \int_0^b v^{a-1}e^{-v}\,dvγ(a,b)=∫0b​va−1e−vdv be the lower incomplete Gamma function, and define the tangent coefficients

ak(λ)=γ(k+1,λT)λ k!,bi(λ)=∑k=0i−1ak(λ),a_k(\lambda) = \frac{\gamma(k+1, \lambda T)}{\lambda\, k!}, \qquad b_i(\lambda) = \sum_{k=0}^{i-1} a_k(\lambda),ak​(λ)=λk!γ(k+1,λT)​,bi​(λ)=k=0∑i−1​ak​(λ),

with the tangent at i=∞i = \inftyi=∞ equal to the constant TTT. For each size choose a nonempty finite set N(λs)⊆N∪{∞}\mathcal N(\lambda_s) \subseteq \mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N(λs​)⊆N∪{∞} of tangent indices. The approximate expected sales function is

g~λ(q)=λS+min⁡s∈S+min⁡i∈N(λs){ai(λs)(qs−i)+bi(λs)}+∑s∈S−λsmin⁡s′∈S+∪{s}min⁡i∈N(λs′){ai(λs′)(qs′−i)+bi(λs′)},\tilde g_\lambda(q) = \lambda_{\mathcal S^+} \min_{s \in \mathcal S^+} \min_{i \in \mathcal N(\lambda_s)} \{a_i(\lambda_s)(q_s - i) + b_i(\lambda_s)\} + \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^-} \lambda_s \min_{s' \in \mathcal S^+ \cup \{s\}} \min_{i \in \mathcal N(\lambda_{s'})} \{a_i(\lambda_{s'})(q_{s'} - i) + b_i(\lambda_{s'})\},g~​λ​(q)=λS+​s∈S+min​i∈N(λs​)min​{ai​(λs​)(qs​−i)+bi​(λs​)}+s∈S−∑​λs​s′∈S+∪{s}min​i∈N(λs′​)min​{ai​(λs′​)(qs′​−i)+bi​(λs′​)},

with λS+=∑s∈S+λs\lambda_{\mathcal S^+} = \sum_{s\in\mathcal S^+}\lambda_sλS+​=∑s∈S+​λs​. In Lean the objects are expectedSales, hA (E[τA∧T]\mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal A}\wedge T]E[τA​∧T]), a, b, tangent and gTilde in the namespace FastFashion.Approx.

Formalization targets

Goal: the approximation is an upper bound

For every independent Poisson family with positive rates, every T>0T > 0T>0, every nonempty S+\mathcal S^+S+, every choice of nonempty finite tangent sets, and every q∈NSq \in \mathbb N^{\mathcal S}q∈NS,

gλ(q)≤g~λ(q).g_\lambda(q) \le \tilde g_\lambda(q).gλ​(q)≤g~​λ​(q).

The statement fixes no tangent set, so it covers the paper's numerical choice (7) and every refinement of it.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (2): gλ(q)=λS+E[τS+∧T]+∑s∈S−λsE[τS+∪{s}∧T]g_\lambda(q) = \lambda_{\mathcal S^+}\mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal S^+}\wedge T] + \sum_{s\in\mathcal S^-}\lambda_s\mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal S^+\cup\{s\}}\wedge T]gλ​(q)=λS+​E[τS+​∧T]+∑s∈S−​λs​E[τS+∪{s}​∧T].
  2. Eq. (3): E[τD∧T]≤min⁡s∈DE[τs∧T]\mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal D}\wedge T] \le \min_{s\in\mathcal D}\mathbb E[\tau_s\wedge T]E[τD​∧T]≤mins∈D​E[τs​∧T] for nonempty D\mathcal DD.
  3. Eqs. (4)–(5): E[τs∧T]=1λs∑k=1qsP(Ns(T)≥k)=∑k=1qsγ(k,λsT)λsΓ(k)\mathbb E[\tau_s\wedge T] = \frac1{\lambda_s}\sum_{k=1}^{q_s}\mathbb P(N_s(T)\ge k) = \sum_{k=1}^{q_s}\frac{\gamma(k,\lambda_sT)}{\lambda_s\Gamma(k)}E[τs​∧T]=λs​1​∑k=1qs​​P(Ns​(T)≥k)=∑k=1qs​​λs​Γ(k)γ(k,λs​T)​.
  4. The terms ak(λ)a_k(\lambda)ak​(λ) are positive and strictly decreasing in kkk.
  5. Eq. (6): E[τs∧T]=min⁡i∈N∪{∞}{ai(λs)(qs−i)+bi(λs)}\mathbb E[\tau_s\wedge T] = \min_{i\in\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}}\{a_i(\lambda_s)(q_s-i)+b_i(\lambda_s)\}E[τs​∧T]=mini∈N∪{∞}​{ai​(λs​)(qs​−i)+bi​(λs​)}, the minimum attained.

Further result: the MIP represents the approximation

In the shipment program (MIP) (13)–(19) of §3.2, with positive prices, every optimal solution has zj=g~λj(xj+Ij)z_j = \tilde g_{\lambda_j}(x_j + I_j)zj​=g~​λj​​(xj​+Ij​) at every store jjj.

Significance

The upper bound is what makes the paper's optimization coherent: the MIP maximizes ∑jPjg~λj\sum_j P_j \tilde g_{\lambda_j}∑j​Pj​g~​λj​​, and the bound guarantees that this objective never underestimates the expected revenue of a shipment plan, with an error controlled by the number of tangents. Identity (6) exhibits E[τs∧T]\mathbb E[\tau_s \wedge T]E[τs​∧T] as a concave function of qsq_sqs​ with explicit Erlang-type slopes; (2) is a standard optional-sampling identity for compensated Poisson processes stopped at a bounded stopping time; and the MIP statement is the step that turns a minimum of affine functions into linear constraints.

The paper proves none of these in detail: (2), (4) and (5) are justified by a reference to the optional sampling theorem, (6) by a sentence on discrete concavity, and the upper bound and the MIP claim by one sentence each. None of the statements has a machine-checked proof. A formalization produces a checked chain from the Poisson model to the deterministic program, fixes the indexing error in the printed coefficients of (6), and isolates the exact hypotheses (nonempty major sizes, nonempty tangent sets, positive prices) under which the claims hold.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts — (3) given pathwise monotonicity, the envelope inequality given concavity, and the MIP argument — are short. The probabilistic identities are not. Equation (2) needs the optional sampling theorem for the compensated process Ns(t)−λstN_s(t) - \lambda_s tNs​(t)−λs​t in continuous time, applied at τA∧T\tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge TτA​∧T (the paper cites Karatzas and Shreve 1991), which requires showing that τA\tau_{\mathcal A}τA​ is a stopping time for the joint filtration of the family and that NsN_sNs​ is still a martingale with respect to that larger filtration; this is where independence across sizes enters. Equation (4) needs the distribution of τs(qs)\tau_s(q_s)τs​(qs​), the qsq_sqs​-th arrival time, which is Erlang; the statement in the model is about first hitting times of a counting process, not about sums of exponential inter-arrival times, so the link between the two descriptions has to be built. Equation (5) needs the identity P(N(T)≥k)=γ(k,λT)/Γ(k)\mathbb P(N(T) \ge k) = \gamma(k, \lambda T)/\Gamma(k)P(N(T)≥k)=γ(k,λT)/Γ(k) between Poisson tails and the incomplete Gamma function.

A tempting shortcut is to define gλg_\lambdagλ​ directly by formula (2), or E[τs∧T]\mathbb E[\tau_s\wedge T]E[τs​∧T] by formula (4); both make the corresponding milestones definitional and the goal a statement about formulas rather than about sales. The formalization defines gλg_\lambdagλ​ from GGG and hAh^{\mathcal A}hA from the stopping times.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Sizes form a finite type; the major sizes are a Finset and the minor sizes its complement. The demand is a structure IsPoissonFamily λ N P: each NsN_sNs​ is a counting process with Ns(0)=0N_s(0)=0Ns​(0)=0, non-decreasing right-continuous paths with unit jumps, Poisson increments of mean λs(t−u)\lambda_s(t-u)λs​(t−u), independent increments, and the processes are independent across sizes. PPP is a probability measure.
  • Stockout times take values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R \cup \{+\infty\}R∪{+∞} (WithTop ℝ), so the infimum of an empty set is +∞+\infty+∞, never 000; τA∧T\tau_{\mathcal A}\wedge TτA​∧T is a real number in [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. They are not junk: 0≤G(q)≤∑sNs(T)0 \le G(q) \le \sum_s N_s(T)0≤G(q)≤∑s​Ns​(T), which is integrable, and τA∧T∈[0,T]\tau_{\mathcal A}\wedge T \in [0,T]τA​∧T∈[0,T].
  • Corrected coefficients. As printed, ak=γ(k,λT)/(λΓ(k))a_k = \gamma(k,\lambda T)/(\lambda\Gamma(k))ak​=γ(k,λT)/(λΓ(k)) and b1=a0b_1 = a_0b1​=a0​ involves Γ(0)\Gamma(0)Γ(0); the formalization uses ak=γ(k+1,λT)/(λ k!)a_k = \gamma(k+1,\lambda T)/(\lambda\,k!)ak​=γ(k+1,λT)/(λk!), matching the paper's description of aka_kak​ as the probability that the (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-th unit sells.
  • Tangent sets. The rule (7), "bi(λs)≈0,0.3T,0.6T,0.8T,0.9T,Tb_i(\lambda_s) \approx 0, 0.3T, 0.6T, 0.8T, 0.9T, Tbi​(λs​)≈0,0.3T,0.6T,0.8T,0.9T,T", is approximate and is replaced by an arbitrary nonempty finite set N(λs)⊆N∪{∞}\mathcal N(\lambda_s) \subseteq \mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N(λs​)⊆N∪{∞}.
  • Added hypotheses. S+≠∅\mathcal S^+ \ne \emptysetS+=∅ (for (8) and the goal), nonempty D\mathcal DD in (3), and Pj>0P_j > 0Pj​>0 in the MIP statement.
  • MIP. Optimality is defined as feasibility plus an objective at least that of every feasible point; existence of an optimum is not asserted.

The paper's further remark that g~λ\tilde g_\lambdag~​λ​ inherits the qualitative properties of Proposition 1, and the multicolor extension of Appendix §5.2, are not included. Contributions of general infrastructure are welcome: optional sampling for continuous-time counting processes, Erlang hitting-time laws for Poisson processes, and the Poisson-tail/incomplete-Gamma identity are all reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • F. Caro, J. Gallien, Inventory Management of a Fast-Fashion Retail Network, working paper (August 2, 2007); published in Operations Research 58(2), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0698
  • I. Karatzas, S. E. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, 2nd ed., Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
10 thms2 active usersReviewed
AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions 2: Under the Small Gain Condition Γ_μ ≱ id, an Ω-Path ExistsResearch Paper

Why paths in the positive orthant matter for networks

A large control system is often built from many subsystems Σ1,…,Σn\Sigma_1,\dots,\Sigma_nΣ1​,…,Σn​, each of which is input-to-state stable (ISS) with respect to the states of the others. Whether the interconnection is again ISS is decided by a small gain condition on the matrix of interconnection gains. For two subsystems this goes back to Jiang, Teel and Praly (1994) and to the Lyapunov version of Jiang, Mareels and Wang (1996). For nnn subsystems, Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth formulated the condition as a property Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id of a monotone operator on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ (2007). Rüffer's thesis (2007) and the paper on which this mission is based (arXiv:0901.1842, SIAM J. Control Optim. 2010) turned it into a Lyapunov construction.

The construction needs a geometric object: a path σ\sigmaσ in the positive orthant, unbounded in every coordinate, along which the gain operator strictly decreases every component. For a linear gain matrix this is a Perron vector. For nonlinear gains, its existence is the first of the paper's two main results (Theorem 5.2). This mission formalizes that theorem and the lemmas of §8 that prove it. The companion mission formalizes the second main result, the Lyapunov function built from such a path.

Setting

Write R+=[0,∞)\mathbb R_+=[0,\infty)R+​=[0,∞). Vectors in R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ are compared componentwise: v≤wv\le wv≤w means vi≤wiv_i\le w_ivi​≤wi​ for all iii, and v<wv<wv<w means vi<wiv_i<w_ivi​<wi​ for all iii. A function γ:R+→R+\gamma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+γ:R+​→R+​ is of class K\mathcal KK if it is continuous, strictly increasing and γ(0)=0\gamma(0)=0γ(0)=0, and of class K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ if it is moreover unbounded.

A gain matrix is Γ=(γij)i,j=1n\Gamma=(\gamma_{ij})_{i,j=1}^nΓ=(γij​)i,j=1n​ with γij∈K∪{0}\gamma_{ij}\in\mathcal K\cup\{0\}γij​∈K∪{0} and γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0. A monotone aggregation function (MAF) is a continuous μ:R+n→R+\mu:\mathbb R^n_+\to\mathbb R_+μ:R+n​→R+​ with μ(s)>0\mu(s)>0μ(s)>0 for s≠0s\ne0s=0, μ(x)<μ(y)\mu(x)<\mu(y)μ(x)<μ(y) whenever x<yx<yx<y, and μ(x)→∞\mu(x)\to\inftyμ(x)→∞ as ∥x∥→∞\|x\|\to\infty∥x∥→∞. Typical examples are sums and maxima. Given MAFs μ1,…,μn\mu_1,\dots,\mu_nμ1​,…,μn​, the gain operator is

Γμ(s)i=μi(γi1(s1),…,γin(sn)),s∈R+n.\Gamma_\mu(s)_i=\mu_i\big(\gamma_{i1}(s_1),\dots,\gamma_{in}(s_n)\big),\qquad s\in\mathbb R^n_+ .Γμ​(s)i​=μi​(γi1​(s1​),…,γin​(sn​)),s∈R+n​.

The paper assumes from p. 8 on that μi\mu_iμi​, restricted to the coordinates of the nonzero entries of row iii, still has the strict monotonicity (Remark 2.6). The small gain condition (SGC) is Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id: for every s≠0s\ne0s=0, at least one component of Γμ(s)\Gamma_\mu(s)Γμ​(s) is strictly smaller than the corresponding component of sss. The set

Ω(Γμ)={s∈R+n:Γμ(s)<s}\Omega(\Gamma_\mu)=\{s\in\mathbb R^n_+:\Gamma_\mu(s)<s\}Ω(Γμ​)={s∈R+n​:Γμ​(s)<s}

collects the points that every component of Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​ strictly decreases.

An Ω\OmegaΩ-path (Definition 5.1) is a continuous σ:R+→R+n\sigma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R^n_+σ:R+​→R+n​ with every component σi∈K∞\sigma_i\in\mathcal K_\inftyσi​∈K∞​ such that (i) each σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ is locally Lipschitz on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞); (ii) on every compact K⊂(0,∞)K\subset(0,\infty)K⊂(0,∞) the derivatives of all σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​, where they exist, lie in [c,C][c,C][c,C] for constants 0<c<C0<c<C0<c<C depending on KKK only; and (iii) σ(r)∈Ω(Γμ)\sigma(r)\in\Omega(\Gamma_\mu)σ(r)∈Ω(Γμ​) for all r>0r>0r>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

Let Γ\GammaΓ be a gain matrix and μ\muμ a compatible vector of MAFs. Assume one of: (i) Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​ is linear with spectral radius less than one; (ii) Γ\GammaΓ is irreducible and Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id; (iii) μ=max⁡\mu=\maxμ=max and Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id; (iv) the entries of Γ\GammaΓ are bounded and Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id. Then

∃ σ an Ω-path withΓμ(σ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0.\exists\,\sigma\ \text{an }\Omega\text{-path with}\quad\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r))<\sigma(r)\quad\forall r>0 .∃σ an Ω-path withΓμ​(σ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0.

In cases (i)–(iii) the entries are in K∞∪{0}\mathcal K_\infty\cup\{0\}K∞​∪{0}, and in case (iv) they are in (K∖K∞)∪{0}(\mathcal K\setminus\mathcal K_\infty)\cup\{0\}(K∖K∞​)∪{0}.

Milestones

The milestones follow §8 in the order the proof uses them.

  • Bounded gains: Lemmas 8.1–8.3, where iterates of a point of Ω\OmegaΩ tend to 000 and the polygon through them stays in Ω\OmegaΩ; and Proposition 8.4, which is case (iv).
  • Technical lemmas: Lemmas 8.5–8.7 on diagonal operators diag(ρ)\mathrm{diag}(\rho)diag(ρ) and the decay set Ψ={s:Γμ(s)≤s}\Psi=\{s:\Gamma_\mu(s)\le s\}Ψ={s:Γμ​(s)≤s}.
  • Topological statements: Proposition 8.8, path-connectedness of Ψ\PsiΨ; Proposition 8.10, where Ω\OmegaΩ meets every simplex Sr={s:∑si=r}S_r=\{s:\sum s_i=r\}Sr​={s:∑si​=r}; and Proposition 8.9, where Ψ∞=⋂kΓμk(Ψ)\Psi_\infty=\bigcap_k\Gamma_\mu^k(\Psi)Ψ∞​=⋂k​Γμk​(Ψ) is unbounded.
  • Irreducible case: the scaling step quoted from Rüffer's earlier work, and Theorem 8.11, which is case (ii).
  • Maximum case: Theorem 8.14, case (iii) in its cycle-condition form.
  • Linear case: the Perron step of §8.5, case (i).

Significance

An Ω\OmegaΩ-path turns a small gain condition into a Lyapunov function. If each ViV_iVi​ is an ISS Lyapunov function of Σi\Sigma_iΣi​, then V(x)=max⁡iσi−1(Vi(xi))V(x)=\max_i\sigma_i^{-1}(V_i(x_i))V(x)=maxi​σi−1​(Vi​(xi​)) is one for the network (Theorem 5.3). So Theorem 5.2 is the step that makes the small gain condition a certificate of network stability, and the corollaries of §5–§7 (sums, maxima, neural networks) all pass through it.

The results are published and proved on paper. None is machine-checked: no proof assistant library contains MAFs, gain operators, the sets Ω\OmegaΩ and Ψ\PsiΨ, or Ω\OmegaΩ-paths. The paper cites three ingredients without proof: Lemma 8.6, Proposition 8.9 and the scaling step of Theorem 8.11. It also gives Theorem 8.14 only as a sketch. Formalizing them closes those gaps in one place.

Difficulty

For bounded gains the problem is easy: far out, every point of a large ray lies in Ω\OmegaΩ, and the only work is the descent to the origin. With K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ entries, Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​ is unbounded and no ray need stay in Ω\OmegaΩ. Following the image of a single point fails, because forward iterates go to 000, not to infinity. The paper instead uses backward orbits inside Ψ∞\Psi_\inftyΨ∞​. That this set is nonempty and unbounded is a fixed-point argument of Knaster–Kuratowski–Mazurkiewicz type (Propositions 8.9 and 8.10), not a monotonicity argument. A second obstacle is strictness. A backward orbit is only ≤\le≤-increasing, while Definition 5.1 needs strictly increasing components with derivative bounds. This is where the diagonal scalings of Lemmas 8.6–8.7 enter.

Formalization scope

R+\mathbb R_+R+​ is ℝ≥0 and R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ is Fin n → ℝ≥0, with subsystems indexed from 000. The strict order <<< is a named predicate (SLt), never Lean's < on functions, which means "≤\le≤ and ≠\ne=". The small gain condition is ∀ s ≠ 0, ¬ s ≤ T s. The inverses σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ are carried as explicit two-sided inverses, and derivatives are ordinary real derivatives at points r>0r>0r>0 where they exist. Compatibility (Remark 2.6) and γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0 are hypotheses of every statement about Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​. Irreducibility is the matrix-power form of p. 12, which Mathlib's Matrix.isIrreducible_iff_exists_pow_pos connects to Matrix.IsIrreducible. The spectral-radius hypothesis says that every complex eigenvalue has modulus <1<1<1. The 1-norm defines SrS_rSr​.

Hypotheses made explicit or corrected:

  • Theorem 5.2's header types Γ\GammaΓ in K∞∪{0}\mathcal K_\infty\cup\{0\}K∞​∪{0} while (iv) needs bounded entries, so each case carries its own entry class.
  • Case (iv) is stated as printed, without "no zero rows".
  • Proposition 8.10 prints "T(s)≱sT(s)\not\ge sT(s)≥s for all s∈R+ns\in\mathbb R^n_+s∈R+n​". No map satisfies this at s=0s=0s=0, so it is stated for s≠0s\ne0s=0.
  • Propositions 8.9 and 8.10 assume n≥1n\ge1n≥1.

A path with Γμ(σ(r))≤σ(r)\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r))\le\sigma(r)Γμ​(σ(r))≤σ(r), or with Lean's < on functions, is not an Ω\OmegaΩ-path. Such a reading would make the goal follow from the origin alone, and it is ruled out.

Needed infrastructure: comparison-function calculus (inverses and compositions of K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ functions), piecewise linear interpolation in R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ with Lipschitz inverse bounds, and a KKM-type argument on the simplex. The first two are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone, proofs of the cited ingredients (Lemma 8.6, Proposition 8.9, Proposition 8.10, the scaling step of Theorem 8.11) and a full proof of Theorem 8.14 are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. N. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions, arXiv:0901.1842v2, 2009; SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.1842 , https://doi.org/10.1137/090746483
  • S. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, An ISS small gain theorem for general networks, Math. Control Signals Systems 19 (2007), pp. 93–122.
  • B. S. Rüffer, Monotone dynamical systems, graphs, and stability of large-scale interconnected systems, PhD thesis, Universität Bremen, 2007. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:gbv:46-diss000109058
  • B. S. Rüffer, Monotone inequalities, dynamical systems, and paths in the positive orthant of Euclidean n-space, Positivity, 2009/2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11117-009-0016-5
  • Z.-P. Jiang, I. M. Y. Mareels, Y. Wang, A Lyapunov formulation of the nonlinear small-gain theorem for interconnected ISS systems, Automatica 32 (1996), pp. 1211–1215.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryDynamical SystemsLinear algebra·Captain: mikedeng1

Uncoupled Dynamics Do Not Lead to Nash Equilibrium 2: Near Jordan's Three-Player Game Γ₀ of Section III, No Uncoupled Dynamic Is Nash-ConvergentResearch Paper

Motivation

A central question of the theory of learning in games is whether simple adaptive behavior leads players to a Nash equilibrium. Many natural dynamics — fictitious play, best-reply dynamics, replicator dynamics — fail to converge in some games, and the failures are usually exhibited one dynamic at a time. Hart and Mas-Colell (AER 2003) asked a structural question instead: is there any continuous-time dynamic, satisfying one informational restriction, that converges to Nash equilibrium for all games in a reasonable family? The restriction is uncoupledness: each player's adjustment may depend on the current strategy profile and on that player's own payoff function, but not on the payoff functions of the others. This is the situation of players who do not know the opponents' preferences.

Their answer is negative, and the paper proves it with two examples. This mission formalizes the second, built on a three-player game introduced by James Jordan (GEB 1993) in his study of learning mixed-strategy equilibria. A companion mission formalizes the first example, a two-player game on the unit disk.

Setting

Three players each choose between two pure strategies, 000 and 111. A game Γ\GammaΓ is identified with its payoff functions (u1,u2,u3)(u^1,u^2,u^3)(u1,u2,u3), ui:{0,1}3→Ru^i:\{0,1\}^3\to\mathbb Rui:{0,1}3→R. A state is a mixed profile x=(x1,x2,x3)∈X=[0,1]3x=(x^1,x^2,x^3)\in X=[0,1]^3x=(x1,x2,x3)∈X=[0,1]3, where xix^ixi is the probability that player iii plays 000 (top row, left column, left matrix). Payoffs extend to XXX by expectation over independent randomizations, and xˉ\bar xxˉ is a Nash equilibrium when no player can raise its expected payoff by changing its own coordinate.

Jordan's family U0\mathcal U_0U0​ consists of the games

ui(s)={aisi=0, si+1=1,1si=1, si+1=0,0otherwise,u^i(s)=\begin{cases}a^i & s^i=0,\ s^{i+1}=1,\\ 1 & s^i=1,\ s^{i+1}=0,\\ 0&\text{otherwise,}\end{cases}ui(s)=⎩⎨⎧​ai10​si=0, si+1=1,si=1, si+1=0,otherwise,​

indices modulo 3, with parameters aia^iai close to 111: each player wants to mismatch the next player. Jordan's game Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ is the member with all ai=1a^i=1ai=1; every game of U0\mathcal U_0U0​ has a unique Nash equilibrium xˉi(Γ)=ai−1/(ai−1+1)\bar x^i(\Gamma)=a^{i-1}/(a^{i-1}+1)xˉi(Γ)=ai−1/(ai−1+1), and xˉ(Γ0)=(1/2,1/2,1/2)\bar x(\Gamma_0)=(1/2,1/2,1/2)xˉ(Γ0​)=(1/2,1/2,1/2).

A dynamic for a family U\mathcal UU is a vector field x˙=F(x;Γ)\dot x=F(x;\Gamma)x˙=F(x;Γ) on XXX, one for each Γ∈U\Gamma\in\mathcal UΓ∈U. It is uncoupled if Fi(x;Γ)=Fi(x;Γ′)F^i(x;\Gamma)=F^i(x;\Gamma')Fi(x;Γ)=Fi(x;Γ′) whenever Γ,Γ′∈U\Gamma,\Gamma'\in\mathcal UΓ,Γ′∈U give player iii the same payoff function. When every game of U\mathcal UU has a single Nash equilibrium xˉ(Γ)\bar x(\Gamma)xˉ(Γ), FFF is Nash-convergent for U\mathcal UU if, for every Γ∈U\Gamma\in\mathcal UΓ∈U, xˉ(Γ)\bar x(\Gamma)xˉ(Γ) is a rest point, every solution converges to it, F(⋅;Γ)F(\cdot;\Gamma)F(⋅;Γ) is C1C^1C1, and the Jacobian JJJ of F(⋅;Γ)F(\cdot;\Gamma)F(⋅;Γ) at xˉ(Γ)\bar x(\Gamma)xˉ(Γ) is hyperbolic and stable: all its eigenvalues have negative real parts.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 near Jordan's game

Let U\mathcal UU have the single-Nash-equilibrium property and contain every game of U0\mathcal U_0U0​ that is close to Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​. Then

no uncoupled dynamic for U is Nash-convergent for U.\text{no uncoupled dynamic for }\mathcal U\text{ is Nash-convergent for }\mathcal U .no uncoupled dynamic for U is Nash-convergent for U.

Milestones

  1. Every game of U0\mathcal U_0U0​ (indeed every aaa with all ai>0a^i>0ai>0) has the unique equilibrium xˉi=ai−1/(ai−1+1)\bar x^i=a^{i-1}/(a^{i-1}+1)xˉi=ai−1/(ai−1+1); in particular xˉ0=(1/2,1/2,1/2)\bar x_0=(1/2,1/2,1/2)xˉ0​=(1/2,1/2,1/2).
  2. If FFF is uncoupled and Nash-convergent, then f=F(⋅;Γ0)f=F(\cdot;\Gamma_0)f=F(⋅;Γ0​) satisfies fi(xˉ0+(y−12)ei)=0f^i(\bar x_0+(y-\tfrac12)e_i)=0fi(xˉ0​+(y−21​)ei​)=0 for yyy near 1/21/21/2, hence the diagonal and the trace of J=Df(xˉ0)J=Df(\bar x_0)J=Df(xˉ0​) vanish:
tr⁡J=0.\operatorname{tr}J=0.trJ=0.
  1. A real 3×33\times33×3 matrix with zero trace and nonzero determinant has an eigenvalue with positive real part.

Two further items record the paper's observations: uncoupledness forces J=(0c000de00)J=\begin{pmatrix}0&c&0\\0&0&d\\e&0&0\end{pmatrix}J=​00e​c00​0d0​​, and such a matrix has an eigenvalue with positive real part when cde≠0cde\ne0cde=0 and spectrum {0}\{0\}{0} otherwise. A last item shows that the coupled dynamic x˙=xˉ(Γ)−x\dot x=\bar x(\Gamma)-xx˙=xˉ(Γ)−x is Nash-convergent.

Significance

The theorem says that convergence to Nash equilibrium is not a property that adaptive dynamics can deliver on informational grounds alone: as soon as a family contains the games near Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​, any rule in which players respond only to their own payoffs fails for some game, even though every game in the family has a unique equilibrium and a coupled rule converges for all of them. The finite example matters because it shows that the obstruction is not an artifact of continuum strategy spaces: it occurs in a 2×2×22\times2\times22×2×2 game in mixed strategies. The paper contrasts it (§IV) with the existence of uncoupled dynamics that converge to correlated equilibria: Nash equilibrium cannot be reached in an uncoupled way, while correlated equilibrium, a notion based on coordination, can. Follow-up work extends the impossibility to stochastic uncoupled dynamics (Hart and Mas-Colell, GEB 2006) and surveys the area (Hart, Econometrica 2005).

The result has been proved since 2003; no machine-checked proof of it is known. A formal proof requires an equilibrium computation in a parametric family of finite games, a careful treatment of the derivative of a vector field defined only on a cube, and a spectral fact about real 3×33\times33×3 matrices. The definitions of uncoupled and Nash-convergent dynamics written here are reusable for other impossibility results of the same kind.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt is to analyze a particular dynamic and show that it cycles around xˉ0\bar x_0xˉ0​. That proves nothing about other dynamics: the statement quantifies over every uncoupled FFF, so the argument must extract a constraint on FFF from uncoupledness alone. Uncoupledness only relates the dynamic at different games through single coordinates of FFF, and Nash-convergence only constrains FFF at the equilibria of the games in U\mathcal UU; neither says anything directly about the Jacobian at Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​. Formally, the delicate steps are the uniqueness of the equilibrium for all nearby parameters, which requires excluding pure and partially mixed equilibria, and the passage from vanishing along a segment to a vanishing partial derivative.

Formalization scope

Players are indexed 0,1,20,1,20,1,2 in Lean (the page's player iii is index i−1i-1i−1), strategies are Fin 2, and a game is Fin 3 → (Fin 3 → Fin 2) → ℝ. The state space is X=[0,1]3⊂R3X=[0,1]^3\subset\mathbb R^3X=[0,1]3⊂R3; a dynamic is any map F:R3×Game→R3F:\mathbb R^3\times\text{Game}\to\mathbb R^3F:R3×Game→R3, whose values outside XXX never matter. Committed conventions:

  • Solutions stay in XXX: a solution is a curve on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with values in XXX satisfying the ODE (one-sided derivative at 000). Allowing curves that leave XXX would let the junk values of FFF outside XXX falsify convergence for every FFF and trivialize the goal.
  • Uncoupledness is required only between games of U\mathcal UU and only at states of XXX.
  • Nash-convergence bundles four clauses for every game of U\mathcal UU and every Nash equilibrium of it: rest point, C1C^1C1 on XXX, all eigenvalues of the Jacobian with negative real part (the published FatkhullinPolyak.Discrete.IsHurwitz), and convergence of every solution. The Jacobian is the derivative within XXX.
  • The single-Nash-equilibrium property of U\mathcal UU is a hypothesis of the goal.
  • The neighborhood hypothesis. The page assumes that U\mathcal UU contains a neighborhood of Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​. The goal assumes less: U\mathcal UU contains every game of U0\mathcal U_0U0​ in some footnote-7 neighborhood of Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​. The page's hypothesis implies this one, so the formal goal is at least as strong. The literal hypothesis is not used because it is not known (and not claimed on the page) to be compatible with the single-equilibrium property, and a contradictory pair of hypotheses would make the goal vacuous.
  • Milestone 1 assumes only ai>0a^i>0ai>0 instead of ∣ai−1∣<ε|a^i-1|<\varepsilon∣ai−1∣<ε for small ε\varepsilonε; this covers every such family with ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1.

The family U\mathcal UU cannot be vacuous: Jordan's games with ∣ai−1∣<1/2|a^i-1|<1/2∣ai−1∣<1/2 satisfy both hypotheses, and the coupled-dynamic item certifies that Nash-convergence itself can be met, so the goal's force rests on uncoupledness. Contributions welcome include the equilibrium computation for U0\mathcal U_0U0​, the spectral lemmas (which are independent of game theory), and the calculus step from vanishing along a segment to a vanishing partial derivative within a cube.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, Uncoupled Dynamics Do Not Lead to Nash Equilibrium, American Economic Review 93(5):1830–1836, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322655581
  • J. S. Jordan, Three Problems in Learning Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibria, Games and Economic Behavior 5(3):368–386, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1993.1022
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, Stochastic Uncoupled Dynamics and Nash Equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 57(2):286–303, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2005.09.007
  • S. Hart, Adaptive Heuristics, Econometrica 73(5):1401–1430, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2005.00625.x
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Discrete GeometryHarmonic AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography 2: For r ≥ √2·η_ε(L), ε ≤ 1/10, a Discrete Gaussian Sample Lies Outside Any Proper Subspace with Probability ≥ 1/10Research Paper

Motivation

Regev's paper (J. ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009) introduces the learning with errors (LWE) problem and shows that solving it is at least as hard, for quantum algorithms, as approximating standard worst-case lattice problems such as the shortest independent vectors problem (SIVP) and GapSVP. LWE is the basis of most lattice-based public-key cryptography, including the post-quantum schemes standardized since.

The reduction runs through a sampling problem: produce samples of the discrete Gaussian distribution DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ on a lattice LLL. The last step converts such a sampler into a solver for SIVP, which asks for nnn short linearly independent lattice vectors. That conversion rests on one geometric fact about DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​, Lemma 3.15 of the paper (p. 34:31): when the width rrr is at least 2\sqrt22​ times the smoothing parameter of LLL, a sample is not trapped in any proper subspace. The lemma first appeared, with only a proof sketch, in the preliminary version of Micciancio and Regev's work on worst-case to average-case reductions (SIAM J. Comput. 2007); Regev's article gives the full proof. This mission formalizes that lemma. The paper's main theorem, a quantum reduction (Theorem 3.1), is outside this series.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, with the Euclidean inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥.

  • A lattice L⊂RnL \subset \mathbb{R}^nL⊂Rn is the set of integer combinations of nnn linearly independent vectors. Its dual is L∗={y∈Rn:⟨x,y⟩∈Z ∀x∈L}L^* = \{y \in \mathbb{R}^n : \langle x, y\rangle \in \mathbb{Z}\ \forall x \in L\}L∗={y∈Rn:⟨x,y⟩∈Z ∀x∈L}, and det⁡(L)\det(L)det(L) is the volume of a fundamental domain; det⁡(L∗)=1/det⁡(L)\det(L^*) = 1/\det(L)det(L∗)=1/det(L).
  • The Gaussian function of width s>0s > 0s>0 is ρs(x)=exp⁡(−π∥x∥2/s2)\rho_s(x) = \exp(-\pi\|x\|^2/s^2)ρs​(x)=exp(−π∥x∥2/s2) (Eq. (4)); for a countable set AAA, ρs(A)=∑x∈Aρs(x)\rho_s(A) = \sum_{x \in A}\rho_s(x)ρs​(A)=∑x∈A​ρs​(x).
  • The discrete Gaussian DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ is the probability distribution on LLL with mass DL,r(x)=ρr(x)/ρr(L)D_{L,r}(x) = \rho_r(x)/\rho_r(L)DL,r​(x)=ρr​(x)/ρr​(L) (Eq. (6)).
  • For ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0, the smoothing parameter ηϵ(L)\eta_\epsilon(L)ηϵ​(L) is the smallest s>0s > 0s>0 with ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ\rho_{1/s}(L^* \setminus \{0\}) \le \epsilonρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ (Definition 2.10, p. 34:19).
  • A subspace HHH is a real linear subspace of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn; "dimension at most n−1n-1n−1" means HHH is proper.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 3.15 (p. 34:31)

For an nnn-dimensional lattice LLL, 0<ϵ≤1100 < \epsilon \le \tfrac1{10}0<ϵ≤101​, r≥2 ηϵ(L)r \ge \sqrt2\,\eta_\epsilon(L)r≥2​ηϵ​(L) and every subspace HHH with dim⁡H≤n−1\dim H \le n - 1dimH≤n−1,

Pr⁡x∼DL,r[x∉H]=∑x∈L∖Hρr(x)ρr(L)  ≥  110.\Pr_{x \sim D_{L,r}}[x \notin H] = \sum_{x \in L \setminus H} \frac{\rho_r(x)}{\rho_r(L)} \;\ge\; \frac{1}{10}.x∼DL,r​Pr​[x∈/H]=x∈L∖H∑​ρr​(L)ρr​(x)​≥101​.

The constants 2\sqrt22​, 110\tfrac1{10}101​ and 110\tfrac1{10}101​ are the printed ones.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Lemma 2.14 (Poisson summation, p. 34:20), already proved on the platform: f(L)=det⁡(L∗)f^(L∗)f(L) = \det(L^*)\hat f(L^*)f(L)=det(L∗)f^​(L∗), with f^(w)=∫f(x)e−2πi⟨x,w⟩dx\hat f(w) = \int f(x)e^{-2\pi i\langle x, w\rangle}dxf^​(w)=∫f(x)e−2πi⟨x,w⟩dx.
  2. The remark after Definition 2.10 (p. 34:19): s↦ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})s \mapsto \rho_{1/s}(L^* \setminus \{0\})s↦ρ1/s​(L∗∖{0}) is continuous and strictly decreasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), tends to ∞\infty∞ at 000 and to 000 at ∞\infty∞, and ϵ↦ηϵ(L)\epsilon \mapsto \eta_\epsilon(L)ϵ↦ηϵ​(L) is its inverse.
  3. The expectation chain (proof of Lemma 3.15, p. 34:31): for a unit vector www,
Expx∼DL,r[e−π⟨w,x⟩2/r2]=det⁡(L∗)rn2 ρr(L)∑y∈L∗e−πr2(∥y∥2−⟨w,y⟩2/2)≤det⁡(L∗)rn2 ρr(L)ρ2/r(L∗)≤det⁡(L∗)rn2 ρr(L)(1+ϵ).\mathop{\mathrm{Exp}}_{x\sim D_{L,r}}\bigl[e^{-\pi\langle w,x\rangle^2/r^2}\bigr] = \frac{\det(L^*)r^n}{\sqrt2\,\rho_r(L)}\sum_{y\in L^*}e^{-\pi r^2(\|y\|^2 - \langle w,y\rangle^2/2)} \le \frac{\det(L^*)r^n}{\sqrt2\,\rho_r(L)}\rho_{\sqrt2/r}(L^*) \le \frac{\det(L^*)r^n}{\sqrt2\,\rho_r(L)}(1+\epsilon).Expx∼DL,r​​[e−π⟨w,x⟩2/r2]=2​ρr​(L)det(L∗)rn​y∈L∗∑​e−πr2(∥y∥2−⟨w,y⟩2/2)≤2​ρr​(L)det(L∗)rn​ρ2​/r​(L∗)≤2​ρr​(L)det(L∗)rn​(1+ϵ).
  1. The normalization bound (p. 34:31): ρr(L)=det⁡(L∗)rnρ1/r(L∗)≥det⁡(L∗)rn\rho_r(L) = \det(L^*)r^n\rho_{1/r}(L^*) \ge \det(L^*)r^nρr​(L)=det(L∗)rnρ1/r​(L∗)≥det(L∗)rn for every r>0r > 0r>0.
  2. The conclusion of the proof (p. 34:31): the expectation is at most 12(1+ϵ)<0.9\tfrac1{\sqrt2}(1+\epsilon) < 0.92​1​(1+ϵ)<0.9.

Significance

The result. Lemma 3.15 gives Corollary 3.16: n2n^2n2 independent samples of DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ contain nnn linearly independent vectors except with exponentially small probability. Since samples of DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ have norm at most about n r\sqrt n\, rn​r with high probability, a sampler at width r≈2 ηϵ(L)r \approx \sqrt2\,\eta_\epsilon(L)r≈2​ηϵ​(L) therefore yields short independent vectors, which is how Regev's reduction reaches SIVP (§3.3). The same property is used in later work wherever discrete Gaussian samples must generate a full-rank set of lattice vectors.

Formalizing it. The lemma is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The work this mission asks for is the formalization of the known proof: the Gaussian-sum analysis of a discrete Gaussian on a general lattice in Mathlib's ZLattice framework, built on the platform's proved Poisson summation formula for lattices. The remark after Definition 2.10 (well-definedness of the smoothing parameter) and the normalization bound ρr(L)≥det⁡(L∗)rn\rho_r(L) \ge \det(L^*)r^nρr​(L)≥det(L∗)rn are used across the whole paper (Lemmas 3.2, 3.12, Claims 3.8, 3.9) and are reusable beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the first step: there is no direct way to bound the mass of DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ on a hyperplane, because a lattice can place many short vectors in one hyperplane and the normalization ρr(L)\rho_r(L)ρr​(L) is not known in closed form. The paper's route replaces the indicator of HHH by a Gaussian in the direction orthogonal to HHH and moves to the dual lattice, where the smoothing hypothesis controls the sum. Formally this requires Poisson summation for an anisotropic Gaussian (a Gaussian with a non-scalar covariance), i.e. the Fourier transform of x↦exp⁡(−π(∥x∥2+⟨w,x⟩2)/r2)x \mapsto \exp(-\pi(\|x\|^2 + \langle w,x\rangle^2)/r^2)x↦exp(−π(∥x∥2+⟨w,x⟩2)/r2), which is not a stated Mathlib lemma, together with summability of Gaussian sums over lattices and the identification of the dual lattice used by the Poisson formula with the one in the paper. The smoothing remark needs continuity and strict monotonicity of a lattice theta series and its limits at 000 and ∞\infty∞.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with Lebesgue measure. A lattice is L : Submodule ℤ (EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n)) with [DiscreteTopology L] [IsZLattice ℝ L] (discrete, full rank), the same shape as the referenced Poisson summation item. L∗L^*L∗ is LinearMap.BilinForm.dualSubmodule (innerₗ _) L; det⁡(L∗)\det(L^*)det(L∗) is written (ZLattice.covolume L)−1(\texttt{ZLattice.covolume } L)^{-1}(ZLattice.covolume L)−1.
  • All Gaussian sums are real tsums over the lattice or its dual; they are summable, so the values are the true sums. DL,rD_{L,r}DL,r​ is a mass function on the points of LLL, and the probability of x∉Hx \notin Hx∈/H is the sum of the masses of the lattice points outside HHH.
  • ηϵ(L)\eta_\epsilon(L)ηϵ​(L) is the real infimum of {s>0:ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ}\{s > 0 : \rho_{1/s}(L^* \setminus \{0\}) \le \epsilon\}{s>0:ρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ}; that it is attained is milestone 2, not a definitional shortcut.
  • Added hypotheses, all disclosed in the items: n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 in the goal (at n=0n = 0n=0 the natural-number subtraction n−1n - 1n−1 is 000, the only subspace of dimension 000 is the whole space R0\mathbb{R}^0R0, and the probability is 000); ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 (Definition 2.10 is for ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0; for ϵ≤0\epsilon \le 0ϵ≤0 the Lean infimum is over the empty set, equals 000, and the hypothesis r≥2 ηϵ(L)r \ge \sqrt2\,\eta_\epsilon(L)r≥2​ηϵ​(L) would be vacuous); r>0r > 0r>0 (a Gaussian width; for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 it follows from the other hypotheses).
  • Rotation. The proof's "assume without loss of generality that (1,0,…,0)(1,0,\dots,0)(1,0,…,0) is orthogonal to HHH" is formalized coordinate-free: milestones 3 and 5 are stated for an arbitrary unit vector www, with x1x_1x1​ replaced by ⟨w,x⟩\langle w, x\rangle⟨w,x⟩.
  • Lemma 2.14 is printed "for any function fff", the technical conditions omitted (p. 34:20). The referenced platform item states it for Schwartz functions fff, in translated form; every function the proof applies it to is a Gaussian, hence Schwartz.
  • Not a trivializing formalization: the probability is not stated through a Bochner integral or an unconstrained tsum, the smoothing hypothesis is not vacuous (ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0), and the goal is the probability bound, not the expectation bound of milestone 3.
  • Contributions welcome: Fourier transforms of anisotropic Gaussians on EuclideanSpace, summability and monotonicity of lattice theta series, and the smoothing remark, each reusable in the sibling missions of this series.

Selected references

  • O. Regev, On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography, Journal of the ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1568318.1568324
  • D. Micciancio and O. Regev, Worst-Case to Average-Case Reductions Based on Gaussian Measures, SIAM Journal on Computing 37(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539705447360
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Proximal Alternating Minimization and Projection Methods for Nonconvex Problems: An Approach Based on the Kurdyka-Łojasiewicz Inequality: Non-Divergent Iterates Have Finite Length and a Critical LimitResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in signal processing, statistics and decision theory have two blocks of variables coupled by a smooth term: matrix factorization, blind deconvolution, feasibility problems for two sets, and models of two agents adjusting their decisions in turn. Minimizing over one block at a time (alternating minimization, or Gauss–Seidel) is the natural method. Without convexity it can oscillate, and its iterates need not converge. Attouch, Bolte, Redont and Soubeyran (Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 2010; arXiv:0801.1780) regularize each block step by a proximal term. They prove that, when the objective satisfies the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz (KL) inequality, every sequence of the method that does not run off to infinity has finite length and converges to a critical point.

Timeline:

  • 1963: Łojasiewicz proves the gradient inequality for real-analytic functions, which gives convergence of bounded gradient trajectories.
  • 1998: Kurdyka extends the inequality to differentiable functions definable in an o-minimal structure.
  • 2006–2007: Bolte, Daniilidis, Lewis and Shiota extend it to nonsmooth lower semicontinuous subanalytic and definable functions, with the limiting subdifferential.
  • 2009: Attouch and Bolte use the Łojasiewicz inequality to prove convergence of the proximal point method for nonconvex functions (Math. Program. 116, 2009).
  • 2010: this paper treats the alternating proximal scheme with a general smooth coupling QQQ.
  • 2014: Bolte, Sabach and Teboulle replace the exact block minimizations by linearized proximal steps (PALM, Math. Program. 146, 2014).

Setting

Let f:Rn→R∪{+∞}f:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}f:Rn→R∪{+∞} and g:Rm→R∪{+∞}g:\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}g:Rm→R∪{+∞} be proper (never −∞-\infty−∞, finite somewhere) and lower semicontinuous. Let Q:Rn×Rm→RQ:\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^m\to\mathbb RQ:Rn×Rm→R be continuously differentiable, with ∇Q\nabla Q∇Q Lipschitz on bounded sets. This is assumption (H) for

L(x,y)=f(x)+Q(x,y)+g(y).L(x,y)=f(x)+Q(x,y)+g(y).L(x,y)=f(x)+Q(x,y)+g(y).

The product Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm carries the Euclidean norm ∥(x,y)∥2=∥x∥2+∥y∥2\|(x,y)\|^2=\|x\|^2+\|y\|^2∥(x,y)∥2=∥x∥2+∥y∥2. Write ∇Q=(∇xQ,∇yQ)\nabla Q=(\nabla_xQ,\nabla_yQ)∇Q=(∇x​Q,∇y​Q).

Given (x0,y0)(x_0,y_0)(x0​,y0​) and step sizes λk,μk>0\lambda_k,\mu_k>0λk​,μk​>0, the proximal alternating scheme is

xk+1∈argmin⁡u{L(u,yk)+12λk∥u−xk∥2},yk+1∈argmin⁡v{L(xk+1,v)+12μk∥v−yk∥2}.(5–6)x_{k+1}\in\operatorname{argmin}_u\Big\{L(u,y_k)+\tfrac1{2\lambda_k}\|u-x_k\|^2\Big\},\qquad y_{k+1}\in\operatorname{argmin}_v\Big\{L(x_{k+1},v)+\tfrac1{2\mu_k}\|v-y_k\|^2\Big\}.\tag{5–6}xk+1​∈argminu​{L(u,yk​)+2λk​1​∥u−xk​∥2},yk+1​∈argminv​{L(xk+1​,v)+2μk​1​∥v−yk​∥2}.(5–6)

Assumption (H1) asks that inf⁡L>−∞\inf L>-\inftyinfL>−∞, that L(⋅,y0)L(\cdot,y_0)L(⋅,y0​) be proper, and that λk,μk∈(r−,r+)\lambda_k,\mu_k\in(r_-,r_+)λk​,μk​∈(r−​,r+​) for all kkk, for some 0<r−<r+0<r_-<r_+0<r−​<r+​.

The Fréchet subdifferential ∂^L(z)\hat\partial L(z)∂^L(z) is the set of vvv with lim inf⁡w→z, w≠z(L(w)−L(z)−⟨v,w−z⟩)/∥w−z∥≥0\liminf_{w\to z,\,w\ne z}\big(L(w)-L(z)-\langle v,w-z\rangle\big)/\|w-z\|\ge0liminfw→z,w=z​(L(w)−L(z)−⟨v,w−z⟩)/∥w−z∥≥0. The limiting subdifferential ∂L(z)\partial L(z)∂L(z) collects the limits of vj∈∂^L(zj)v_j\in\hat\partial L(z_j)vj​∈∂^L(zj​) along zj→zz_j\to zzj​→z with L(zj)→L(z)L(z_j)\to L(z)L(zj​)→L(z). A point zzz is critical if 0∈∂L(z)0\in\partial L(z)0∈∂L(z). LLL has the KL property at zˉ∈dom⁡∂L\bar z\in\operatorname{dom}\partial Lzˉ∈dom∂L if there are η>0\eta>0η>0, a neighbourhood UUU of zˉ\bar zzˉ and a continuous concave φ:[0,η)→R+\varphi:[0,\eta)\to\mathbb R_+φ:[0,η)→R+​ with φ(0)=0\varphi(0)=0φ(0)=0, φ∈C1(0,η)\varphi\in C^1(0,\eta)φ∈C1(0,η), φ′>0\varphi'>0φ′>0, such that

φ′(L(z)−L(zˉ)) dist⁡(0,∂L(z))≥1whenever z∈U, L(zˉ)<L(z)<L(zˉ)+η.\varphi'\big(L(z)-L(\bar z)\big)\,\operatorname{dist}\big(0,\partial L(z)\big)\ge1\quad\text{whenever }z\in U,\ L(\bar z)<L(z)<L(\bar z)+\eta .φ′(L(z)−L(zˉ))dist(0,∂L(z))≥1whenever z∈U, L(zˉ)<L(z)<L(zˉ)+η.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9 (p. 11)

If LLL satisfies (H), (H1) and has the KL property at every point of dom⁡∂L\operatorname{dom}\partial Ldom∂L, then every sequence of (5–6) satisfies

∥(xk,yk)∥→∞or(∑k∥xk+1−xk∥+∥yk+1−yk∥<∞  and  (xk,yk)→z⋆, 0∈∂L(z⋆)).\|(x_k,y_k)\|\to\infty\qquad\text{or}\qquad\Big(\sum_k\|x_{k+1}-x_k\|+\|y_{k+1}-y_k\|<\infty\ \text{ and }\ (x_k,y_k)\to z^\star,\ 0\in\partial L(z^\star)\Big).∥(xk​,yk​)∥→∞or(k∑​∥xk+1​−xk​∥+∥yk+1​−yk​∥<∞  and  (xk​,yk​)→z⋆, 0∈∂L(z⋆)).

Milestones

  • Proposition 3 (p. 5): ∂L(x,y)={∂f(x)+∇xQ(x,y)}×{∂g(y)+∇yQ(x,y)}=∂xL(x,y)×∂yL(x,y)\partial L(x,y)=\{\partial f(x)+\nabla_xQ(x,y)\}\times\{\partial g(y)+\nabla_yQ(x,y)\}=\partial_xL(x,y)\times\partial_yL(x,y)∂L(x,y)={∂f(x)+∇x​Q(x,y)}×{∂g(y)+∇y​Q(x,y)}=∂x​L(x,y)×∂y​L(x,y) on dom⁡L\operatorname{dom}LdomL.
  • Lemma 5 (p. 6), in four parts: the scheme is well defined; the decrease estimate (7); summability of the squared steps; the explicit subgradient (xk∗,yk∗)∈∂L(xk,yk)(x_k^*,y_k^*)\in\partial L(x_k,y_k)(xk∗​,yk∗​)∈∂L(xk​,yk​) (8), which tends to 000 along bounded subsequences.
  • Proposition 6 (p. 7): limit points are critical, and LLL is finite and constant on them.
  • (19)–(20), (24), (25), (26) from the proof of Theorem 8 (pp. 9–11).
  • Theorem 8 (p. 9): a local convergence result with explicit constants: M=2r+(C+1/r−)M=2r_+(C+1/r_-)M=2r+​(C+1/r−​), the trapping radius (16), and the tail bound (18).

Significance

Theorem 9 makes the KL inequality the single hypothesis behind global convergence of a nonconvex block method. Semi-algebraic, subanalytic and definable data satisfy it, so the theorem covers sparse and low-rank regularizers, indicator functions of semi-algebraic sets, and polynomial couplings. With f=δCf=\delta_Cf=δC​, g=δDg=\delta_Dg=δD​ and Q(x,y)=12∥x−y∥2Q(x,y)=\tfrac12\|x-y\|^2Q(x,y)=21​∥x−y∥2 it yields convergence of an averaged alternating projection method between two closed sets (§3.4 of the paper). The proof pattern of sufficient decrease, a relative-error subgradient bound and the KL inequality was later abstracted for PALM and many other algorithms. A formal proof of this paper's argument therefore covers the template those analyses reuse.

The result has been proved since 2010. To our knowledge it has not been formalized in any proof assistant. Mathlib has the Fréchet derivative and the gradient, but no limiting subdifferential and no KL theory. The published Prove2Me definitions of the limiting subdifferential and of the KL property (from the Li–Pong ADMM series) are reused here, so this mission also tests that infrastructure on a second algorithm.

Difficulty

The decrease estimate (7) gives only ∑∥zk+1−zk∥2<∞\sum\|z_{k+1}-z_k\|^2<\infty∑∥zk+1​−zk​∥2<∞. That makes steps vanish and limit points critical (Proposition 6), but it does not give convergence, because square-summable steps can have infinite total length. Turning square summability into summability needs the KL inequality. That inequality holds only near a critical point and only on a sublevel band, so the iterates must first be shown never to leave a ball B(zˉ,ρ)B(\bar z,\rho)B(zˉ,ρ), by an induction that uses the very finite-length estimate it is trying to establish. The constants in (16) are arranged so that this induction closes. A second difficulty is nonsmooth calculus: the subdifferential sum rule for f(x)+g(y)+Q(x,y)f(x)+g(y)+Q(x,y)f(x)+g(y)+Q(x,y) and the closedness of the graph of ∂L\partial L∂L along sequences with converging function values. Lower semicontinuity alone does not give convergence of the function values; the proximal inequalities do.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace ProxAltMin.Conv, in Lean 4 with Mathlib. Conventions:

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn, Rm\mathbb R^mRm are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), and the product is the L2L^2L2 product WithLp 2 (… × …), not the sup-norm product.
  • R∪{+∞}\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}R∪{+∞} is EReal with "never −∞-\infty−∞" as part of properness.
  • The argmin steps are inequalities quantified over all competitors, so every selection of minimizers is covered.
  • Balls are open.
  • The KL data (η,U,φ)(\eta,U,\varphi)(η,U,φ) of Theorem 8 are explicit parameters, with real η>0\eta>0η>0; this is equivalent to η∈(0,+∞]\eta\in(0,+\infty]η∈(0,+∞].
  • Inside the proof of Theorem 8 the paper normalizes L(zˉ)=0L(\bar z)=0L(zˉ)=0; the milestones taken from that proof carry li−lˉl_i-\bar lli​−lˉ instead.
  • Every infinite sum in a conclusion comes with an explicit summability claim.
  • Theorem 9's "KL property at each point of the domain of fff" is read as "at each point of dom⁡∂L\operatorname{dom}\partial Ldom∂L", the domain on which Definition 7 places the KL property.

Theorem and page numbers are those of arXiv:0801.1780v3 (22 Jan 2013), which is the version read; the published article has the same content.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the run predicate is satisfiable (Lemma 5's existence milestone; for f=g=Q=0f=g=Q=0f=g=Q=0 any constant sequence is a run), the constants MMM and CCC are tied to the data rather than chosen by the prover, and no conclusion is a sum or a distance whose library value is 000 on bad input.

Needed infrastructure: the subdifferential calculus behind Proposition 3 (a smooth perturbation and a separable sum), the closedness of the limiting subdifferential, existence of proximal minimizers for coercive lower semicontinuous functions on Rn\mathbb R^nRn, and the elementary but delicate bookkeeping of Theorem 8. The first two are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, and general lemmas on limiting subdifferentials stated as separate theorems.

Selected references

  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, P. Redont, A. Soubeyran, Proximal alternating minimization and projection methods for nonconvex problems: an approach based on the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz inequality, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(2):438–457, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0449 (arXiv:0801.1780v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1780v3)
  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, On the convergence of the proximal algorithm for nonsmooth functions involving analytic features, Mathematical Programming 116:5–16, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0133-5
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, The Łojasiewicz inequality for nonsmooth subanalytic functions with applications to subgradient dynamical systems, SIAM J. Optim. 17(4):1205–1223, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644641
  • K. Kurdyka, On gradients of functions definable in o-minimal structures, Annales de l'Institut Fourier 48(3):769–783, 1998. https://doi.org/10.5802/aif.1638
  • J. Bolte, S. Sabach, M. Teboulle, Proximal alternating linearized minimization for nonconvex and nonsmooth problems, Mathematical Programming 146:459–494, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-013-0701-9
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting 1: Dynamic Programming on the CPS Network Gives the Minimum MakespanResearch Paper

Motivation

A busy runway is the bottleneck of an airport, and the order in which arriving or departing aircraft use it determines how many operations fit into an hour. Consecutive aircraft must be spaced by minimum separations that depend on both aircraft (a light aircraft behind a heavy one needs a long gap because of wake turbulence), so reordering the first-come-first-served (FCFS) queue can raise throughput considerably. Unrestricted reordering is unacceptable in practice: it makes the controllers' job harder and can push one aircraft to the back of the queue indefinitely. Following Dear (1976), constrained position shifting (CPS) allows each aircraft to move at most kkk positions away from its FCFS position, with kkk between 1 and 3 in practice.

Earlier algorithms for CPS either exploited a small number of aircraft types and ignored time windows and precedence constraints (Psaraftis 1980), or needed exponentially many parallel processors (Trivizas 1998), and Carr (2004) conjectured that runway scheduling under CPS has exponential complexity in general. Balakrishnan and Chandran (Oper. Res. 58(6), 2010) showed that, for fixed kkk, the problem with time windows and precedence constraints is solved by dynamic programming on a network whose size is linear in the number of aircraft. This mission formalizes the core of that result: the network, its precedence pruning, and the dynamic program for the minimum makespan.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 aircraft, labelled 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1 in FCFS order, and the landing positions are also 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1. An instance consists of

  1. the maximum position shift k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N;
  2. separations δab≥0\delta_{ab}\ge 0δab​≥0, the minimum time between a leading aircraft aaa and a trailing aircraft bbb, satisfying the triangle inequality δac≤δab+δbc\delta_{ac}\le\delta_{ab}+\delta_{bc}δac​≤δab​+δbc​ (which holds for wake-vortex separations in arrivals-only or departures-only operation);
  3. a time window [e(a),l(a)][e(a),l(a)][e(a),l(a)] for each aircraft;
  4. a finite set of precedence pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) of distinct aircraft, meaning that xxx lands before yyy.

A kkk-CPS sequence is a bijection σ\sigmaσ from positions to aircraft with ∣σ(p)−p∣≤k|\sigma(p)-p|\le k∣σ(p)−p∣≤k for all ppp. A feasible schedule is such a σ\sigmaσ with landing times tpt_ptp​ such that e(σ(p))≤tp≤l(σ(p))e(\sigma(p))\le t_p\le l(\sigma(p))e(σ(p))≤tp​≤l(σ(p)), δσ(p)σ(q)≤tq−tp\delta_{\sigma(p)\sigma(q)}\le t_q-t_pδσ(p)σ(q)​≤tq​−tp​ for all positions p<qp<qp<q, and every precedence pair is respected. The makespan is tn−1t_{n-1}tn−1​, the landing time of the last aircraft.

The CPS network has stages p=1,…,np=1,\dots,np=1,…,n. A node of stage ppp is a list of min⁡{2k+1,p}\min\{2k+1,p\}min{2k+1,p} distinct aircraft occupying the positions that end at p−1p-1p−1, each within kkk of its FCFS position; its last entry is its final aircraft. An arc joins a stage-ppp node iii to a stage-(p+1)(p+1)(p+1) node jjj when the first min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} entries of jjj are the last min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} entries of iii. A source-sink path picks one node per stage, joined by arcs, and its sequence puts the final aircraft of the stage-(q+1)(q+1)(q+1) node at position qqq. The pruned network GGG deletes the nodes that violate a precedence pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y): those containing yyy before xxx, or yyy at a position less than x−kx-kx−k, or xxx at a position greater than y+ky+ky+k.

On GGG, with e(j),l(j)e(j),l(j)e(j),l(j) the window of the final aircraft of jjj, δi(j)\delta_i(j)δi​(j) the separation between the final aircraft of iii and jjj, and P(j)P(j)P(j) the predecessors of jjj, the dynamic program is T∗(j)=e(j)T^*(j)=e(j)T∗(j)=e(j) at stage 1 and

T∗(j)=max⁡{e(j), min⁡i∈P(j): T∗(i)≤l(i)(T∗(i)+δi(j))}(1)T^*(j)=\max\Big\{e(j),\ \min_{i\in P(j):\,T^*(i)\le l(i)}\big(T^*(i)+\delta_i(j)\big)\Big\}\qquad(1)T∗(j)=max{e(j), i∈P(j):T∗(i)≤l(i)min​(T∗(i)+δi​(j))}(1)

with min⁡∅=+∞\min\emptyset=+\inftymin∅=+∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: §4.1, the minimum makespan rule

∃ feasible schedule  ⟺  ∃ j∈Gn: T∗(j)≤l(j),\exists\ \text{feasible schedule}\iff \exists\, j\in G_n:\ T^*(j)\le l(j),∃ feasible schedule⟺∃j∈Gn​: T∗(j)≤l(j), min⁡{makespan of a feasible schedule}=min⁡{T∗(j):j∈Gn, T∗(j)≤l(j)},\min\{\text{makespan of a feasible schedule}\}=\min\{T^*(j): j\in G_n,\ T^*(j)\le l(j)\},min{makespan of a feasible schedule}=min{T∗(j):j∈Gn​, T∗(j)≤l(j)},

where GnG_nGn​ is stage nnn of GGG; the second identity is stated as "τ\tauτ is the least makespan iff τ\tauτ is the least admissible T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j)" for every real τ\tauτ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1. σ\sigmaσ is a kkk-CPS sequence iff it is the sequence of a source-sink path of the CPS network.
  2. Lemma 1 (Case I). For a<ba<ba<b, a path whose sequence puts aaa after bbb has a node containing bbb before aaa.
  3. Lemma 2 (Case II). For a<ba<ba<b, in the position-constrained network, a path whose sequence puts aaa before bbb has a node containing aaa before bbb.
  4. §3.1 conclusion. The source-sink paths of GGG are exactly the kkk-CPS sequences respecting all precedence pairs.
  5. Lemma 3. For every node jjj of GGG, T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) is the earliest landing time of the final aircraft of jjj over all partial schedules ending at jjj, and +∞+\infty+∞ exactly when there is none.

Significance

The network turns a search over permutations into a shortest-path-like computation over O(n(2k+1)2k+1)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+1})O(n(2k+1)2k+1) nodes, so for the small values of kkk used in practice the minimum makespan with time windows and precedence constraints is computed in time linear in nnn. The same network underlies the paper's algorithms for total delay (§5.2) and, in a time-expanded form, for arbitrary separable costs without the triangle inequality (§6).

The paper's proofs are short and informal. A formalization pins down exactly what T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) means (the paper describes it only as "arrival time of the final aircraft of node iii in an optimal solution"), makes precise which nodes the precedence pruning removes, and checks the correctness of the stage-nnn rule. The result has not been machine-checked before.

Difficulty

Two features of the model make the correctness of the network nontrivial. First, a node records only a window of at most 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions, so nothing local prevents a path from using the same aircraft twice or omitting one; Theorem 1 asserts that the global sequence is nevertheless a permutation, and Lemmas 1 and 2 assert that precedence, a global property of the sequence, is detected inside single nodes. Second, the recursion (1) adds the separation only between consecutive aircraft, while feasibility constrains every pair of aircraft; the triangle inequality is what reconciles the two, and without it Lemma 3 fails.

The obvious reading of §4.1 also fails: taking the least T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) over all stage-nnn nodes, as the paper prints, can select a node whose final aircraft lands after its latest time. The goal filters stage nnn by T∗(j)≤l(j)T^*(j)\le l(j)T∗(j)≤l(j).

Formalization scope

All data are real numbers; aircraft and positions are Fin n, 0-based; stages are 1-based natural numbers; [NeZero n] encodes n≥1n\ge 1n≥1. Separations are pairwise in the definition of feasibility, never only consecutive. The recursion takes values in WithTop ℝ, with ⊤=+∞\top=+\infty⊤=+∞; optima are stated with IsLeast over sets of makespans, never with a real infimum. Precedence pairs are a Finset of ordered pairs of distinct aircraft, covering both of the paper's cases.

Explicit readings of loose phrases:

  • "corresponding source-sink path" (Theorem 1) is the path whose final aircraft, stage by stage, form the sequence, as defined in the proof;
  • "the values of T∗(⋅)T^*(\cdot)T∗(⋅)" (Lemma 3) are earliest landing times over partial schedules ending at the node: paths in GGG with times satisfying the windows of the earlier aircraft, the earliest time of the last one, and all pairwise separations;
  • "the minimum makespan is the lowest value of T∗(⋅)T^*(\cdot)T∗(⋅) among all nodes in stage nnn" is corrected to the nodes with T∗(j)≤l(j)T^*(j)\le l(j)T∗(j)≤l(j), which is the paper's own feasibility check;
  • the Case II position filter uses the printed rule (<b−k<b-k<b−k, >a+k>a+k>a+k).

Not formalized: running times (Proposition 1 and the O(k)O(k)O(k) preprocessing remark), the predecessor pointers and tie-breaking that reconstruct an optimal sequence, the removal of nodes unreachable from the source or the sink (it does not change the set of source-sink paths), asymmetric shifts (§3.2) and disjoint time windows.

A formalization that defines feasibility with consecutive separations only, defines T∗T^*T∗ by the recursion and states Lemma 3 as an unfolding, or states Theorem 1 as "some CPS sequence exists iff some path exists" would be trivial; the statements here avoid all three.

The definitions (instance, kkk-CPS sequences, the CPS network and its pruning) are shared with the two other missions of this series (total delay, discrete time) and may be consolidated later. Proofs of the milestones, and lemmas about the window structure of the network, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Balakrishnan, B. G. Chandran, Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting, Operations Research 58(6), 1650–1665, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0869
  • H. N. Psaraftis, A Dynamic Programming Approach for Sequencing Groups of Identical Jobs, Operations Research 28(6), 1347–1359, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.6.1347
  • R. G. Dear, The Dynamic Scheduling of Aircraft in the Near Terminal Area, MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R76-9, 1976.
  • D. A. Trivizas, Optimal Scheduling with Maximum Position Shift (MPS) Constraints: A Runway Scheduling Application, Journal of Navigation 51(2), 250–266, 1998.
  • F. R. Carr, Robust Decision-Support Tools for Airport Surface Traffic, Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Inventory Management of a Fast-Fashion Retail Network 1: Expected Sales Under the Major-Size Display Policy Are Non-Decreasing, Discretely Concave and SupermodularResearch Paper

Motivation

Fast-fashion retailers such as Zara replenish their stores several times a week from a central warehouse, and the warehouse holds a limited stock of each garment that must be split across hundreds of stores. Caro and Gallien built the store-level sales model behind the shipment-allocation system they developed with Zara and tested in a live pilot (Caro and Gallien, Inventory Management of a Fast-Fashion Retail Network, working paper, August 2, 2007; published in Operations Research 58(2), 2010). One display policy shapes the model. A garment (a reference) comes in several sizes, a few of which are designated major sizes. As soon as one major size runs out in a store, the whole reference is removed from the shop floor, so the remaining stock of the other sizes stops selling.

The allocation optimization only works if expected store sales have the right shape. They must grow with inventory, show decreasing marginal returns, and show complementarity across sizes. Proposition 1 of the paper establishes these properties for the model. The paper also cites the analogous result of Lu and Song (2003) for assemble-to-order systems as the template for its proof.

Setting

Fix a finite set of sizes S\mathcal SS, split into the major sizes S+\mathcal S^+S+ and the minor sizes S−=S∖S+\mathcal S^- = \mathcal S \setminus \mathcal S^+S−=S∖S+. Time t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 is measured from the last replenishment, and the next replenishment comes at time T>0T > 0T>0.

Demand is random. On a probability space, each size sss has a counting process Ns(t)N_s(t)Ns​(t), the number of sale opportunities for sss in [0,t][0, t][0,t]. It is a Poisson process with rate λs>0\lambda_s > 0λs​>0:

  • Ns(0)=0N_s(0) = 0Ns​(0)=0;
  • its paths are non-decreasing and right-continuous with jumps of size one;
  • the increment Ns(t)−Ns(u)N_s(t) - N_s(u)Ns​(t)−Ns​(u) is Poisson with mean λs(t−u)\lambda_s (t-u)λs​(t−u);
  • increments over disjoint intervals are independent.

The processes of different sizes are mutually independent. In Lean this family is IsPoissonFamily lam N P.

An inventory vector q=(qs)∈NSq = (q_s) \in \mathbb N^{\mathcal S}q=(qs​)∈NS gives the stock of each size right after replenishment. The virtual stockout time of size sss is

τs(qs)=inf⁡{t≥0:Ns(t)=qs},\tau_s(q_s) = \inf\{t \ge 0 : N_s(t) = q_s\},τs​(qs​)=inf{t≥0:Ns​(t)=qs​},

the time at which size sss would run out if it stayed on display. For a set of sizes A\mathcal AA, write τA=min⁡s∈Aτs(qs)\tau_{\mathcal A} = \min_{s \in \mathcal A} \tau_s(q_s)τA​=mins∈A​τs​(qs​) and a∧b=min⁡(a,b)a \wedge b = \min(a, b)a∧b=min(a,b). Under the major-size policy, the random sales over one period are

G(q)=∑s∈S+Ns(τS+∧T)+∑s∈S−Ns(τS+∪{s}∧T).(1)G(q) = \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^+} N_s(\tau_{\mathcal S^+} \wedge T) + \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^-} N_s(\tau_{\mathcal S^+ \cup \{s\}} \wedge T). \tag{1}G(q)=s∈S+∑​Ns​(τS+​∧T)+s∈S−∑​Ns​(τS+∪{s}​∧T).(1)

The expected sales function is g(q)=E[G(q)]g(q) = \mathbb E[G(q)]g(q)=E[G(q)] (expectedSales). The proof also uses hA(q)=E[τA∧T]h^{\mathcal A}(q) = \mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge T]hA(q)=E[τA​∧T] (hA) and the marginal difference Δsf(q)=f(q+es)−f(q)\Delta_s f(q) = f(q + e_s) - f(q)Δs​f(q)=f(q+es​)−f(q) (delta), where ese_ses​ is the sss-th unit vector.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

For every q∈NSq \in \mathbb N^{\mathcal S}q∈NS and all sizes s≠s′s \ne s's=s′:

g is non-decreasing,Δsg(q+es)≤Δsg(q),Δsg(q)≤Δsg(q+es′),g \text{ is non-decreasing}, \qquad \Delta_s g(q + e_s) \le \Delta_s g(q), \qquad \Delta_s g(q) \le \Delta_s g(q + e_{s'}),g is non-decreasing,Δs​g(q+es​)≤Δs​g(q),Δs​g(q)≤Δs​g(q+es′​),

and ggg is supermodular on the lattice NS\mathbb N^{\mathcal S}NS:

g(q)+g(q′)≤g(q∨q′)+g(q∧q′).g(q) + g(q') \le g(q \vee q') + g(q \wedge q').g(q)+g(q′)≤g(q∨q′)+g(q∧q′).

The statement is uniform in the rates, the horizon and the choice of major sizes, so it covers every instance of the model.

Milestones (Appendix §5.1 and §3.1.3, in the order the proof uses them)

  1. On every sample path, q↦G(q)q \mapsto G(q)q↦G(q) is non-decreasing.
  2. Identity (2): g(q)=λS+hS+(q)+∑s∈S−λshS+∪{s}(q)g(q) = \lambda_{\mathcal S^+} h^{\mathcal S^+}(q) + \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^-} \lambda_s h^{\mathcal S^+ \cup \{s\}}(q)g(q)=λS+​hS+(q)+∑s∈S−​λs​hS+∪{s}(q), where λS+=∑s∈S+λs\lambda_{\mathcal S^+} = \sum_{s \in \mathcal S^+} \lambda_sλS+​=∑s∈S+​λs​.
  3. For s∈As \in \mathcal As∈A, ΔshA(q)\Delta_s h^{\mathcal A}(q)Δs​hA(q) equals an integral over [0,T][0, T][0,T] of Poisson probabilities, and that integral equals 1λsP(τs(qs+1)≤τA∖{s}∧T)\frac{1}{\lambda_s}\mathbb P(\tau_s(q_s+1) \le \tau_{\mathcal A \setminus \{s\}} \wedge T)λs​1​P(τs​(qs​+1)≤τA∖{s}​∧T).
  4. ΔshA\Delta_s h^{\mathcal A}Δs​hA is non-increasing in qsq_sqs​ and non-decreasing in qs′q_{s'}qs′​ for s′≠ss' \ne ss′=s.
  5. On every sample path, q↦τA∧Tq \mapsto \tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge Tq↦τA​∧T is supermodular.
  6. hAh^{\mathcal A}hA is supermodular.

Significance

The result. Proposition 1 justifies treating each store's expected sales as a concave, complementary function of the size profile. The paper's allocation MIP is built on that structure. It approximates ggg by a lower envelope of tangents and embeds the approximation in a mixed integer program that allocates warehouse stock across stores. The proposition explains why sending a unit of a major size can raise the value of the minor sizes already in a store. It also explains why the marginal value of a size falls as more of it is shipped. Without these properties a greedy or envelope-based allocation would have no structural footing.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, with one error in the printed proof. The last line of the Appendix display gives ΔshA(q)\Delta_s h^{\mathcal A}(q)Δs​hA(q) as a probability, but the quantity is a time. The correct value carries a factor 1/λs1/\lambda_s1/λs​ and has qs+1q_s + 1qs​+1 in place of qsq_sqs​. This mission states the corrected identity. As far as is known, no machine-checked proof of any part of the result exists. A complete development would give a verified link from a continuous-time stochastic model to the discrete convexity properties that inventory optimization relies on. It would also produce reusable facts about Poisson processes and their hitting times along the way.

Difficulty

The monotonicity of ggg is pathwise and elementary. The other properties are not pathwise properties of GGG. Under the major-size policy, a realisation of GGG need not have decreasing increments in qsq_sqs​. The concavity and the complementarity appear only after taking expectations and rewriting ggg through the stopping times, using identity (2). That identity is an optional-sampling statement for the compensated Poisson processes at the bounded random times τA∧T\tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge TτA​∧T. These times depend on several independent processes at once, so the relevant filtration is the joint one. Mathlib has optional sampling only in discrete time.

The marginal-difference formula needs three ingredients:

  • the tail-integral representation of E[τA∧T]\mathbb E[\tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge T]E[τA​∧T];
  • the factorisation of P(τA>t)\mathbb P(\tau_{\mathcal A} > t)P(τA​>t) through independence across sizes;
  • the Erlang law of the hitting times τs(k)\tau_s(k)τs​(k).

The first idea, proving concavity of ggg directly from (1) path by path, fails for the reason above.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace FastFashion.Structure:

  • Sizes: a Fintype with decidable equality. The major sizes are a Finset Sp and the minor sizes are its complement. No nonemptiness assumption is placed on the sizes or on S+\mathcal S^+S+; S+=∅\mathcal S^+ = \emptysetS+=∅ is allowed, as in the paper.
  • Inventories: vectors q:S→Nq : \mathcal S \to \mathbb Nq:S→N with the componentwise order and lattice operations. ese_ses​ is Pi.single s 1.
  • Stockout times: τs(qs)\tau_s(q_s)τs​(qs​) takes values in WithTop ℝ. It is +∞+\infty+∞ on paths that never reach qsq_sqs​, so it is never Lean's junk value 000, and τ∅=+∞\tau_\emptyset = +\inftyτ∅​=+∞. The truncation τA∧T\tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge TτA​∧T (stopMin) is a real number in [0,T][0, T][0,T].
  • Expectations and probabilities: expectations are Bochner integrals. They need no integrability hypothesis, because 0≤G(q)≤∑sNs(T)0 \le G(q) \le \sum_s N_s(T)0≤G(q)≤∑s​Ns​(T) and 0≤τA∧T≤T0 \le \tau_{\mathcal A} \wedge T \le T0≤τA​∧T≤T. Probabilities are real numbers.
  • Supermodularity: Topkis's lattice definition, the published platform definition Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn, applied on the whole lattice.
  • Poisson family: the processes are independent as whole processes. The σ-algebras generated by all times are independent, not only the one-dimensional marginals.

Two formalizations would trivialize the mission, and neither is used. ggg is defined as the expectation of GGG from (1), never by formula (2), and hAh^{\mathcal A}hA is never defined by a product-of-probabilities integral. Proposition 1 states both readings of "supermodular": the per-coordinate marginal-difference inequalities and the lattice inequality.

Deviations from the printed text:

  • The last line of the Appendix display is replaced by 1λsP(τs(qs+1)≤τA∖{s}∧T)\frac{1}{\lambda_s}\mathbb P(\tau_s(q_s+1) \le \tau_{\mathcal A\setminus\{s\}} \wedge T)λs​1​P(τs​(qs​+1)≤τA∖{s}​∧T).
  • "non-decreasing in xsx_sxs​" in Proposition 1 is read as qsq_sqs​.

Infrastructure a complete development needs:

  • hitting times of counting processes and their Erlang laws;
  • a continuous-time optional sampling theorem for the compensated Poisson process, or a direct computation from independent increments;
  • the tail formula E[X]=∫0∞P(X>t) dt\mathbb E[X] = \int_0^\infty \mathbb P(X > t)\,dtE[X]=∫0∞​P(X>t)dt for bounded non-negative XXX;
  • lattice facts about minima of single-variable increasing functions.

The Poisson-process and hitting-time lemmas are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions. The companion mission on the paper's tangent-envelope approximation uses the same model layer.

Selected references

  • F. Caro, J. Gallien, Inventory Management of a Fast-Fashion Retail Network, working paper, August 2, 2007; published in Operations Research 58(2):257–273, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0698
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
  • Y. Lu, J.-S. Song, Order-Based Cost Optimization in Assemble-to-Order Systems, Operations Research 53(1):151–169, 2005 (working paper 2003). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0146
  • I. Karatzas, S. E. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, 2nd ed., Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting 2: The Minimum Total Delay Is a Shortest Source-Sink Path in the CPS NetworkResearch Paper

Motivation

Runway capacity is the binding constraint at many busy airports. An aircraft landing or taking off behind another must wait a minimum separation time that depends on the two aircraft's weight classes, because of wake vortices; the US Federal Aviation Administration publishes these spacing requirements. Reordering aircraft changes the sum of the separations incurred and hence the delays, but unrestricted reordering is unacceptable to airlines and controllers: an aircraft that arrived early could be pushed to the end of the queue. Constrained position shifting (CPS), introduced by Psaraftis (1980) and used in the United States and Europe since, allows each aircraft to move at most kkk positions from its first-come-first-served (FCFS) position.

Balakrishnan and Chandran (Operations Research 58(6), 2010) recast CPS scheduling as dynamic programming on a layered network, the CPS network, whose size is polynomial in the number of aircraft nnn for fixed kkk. Their §4 minimizes the makespan (the landing time of the last aircraft). §5.2 minimizes the total delay, equivalently the average delay, which measures passenger and airline cost more directly. This mission formalizes §5.2.

Setting

There are nnn aircraft labelled 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n in FCFS order, a maximum position shift k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N, separations δab≥0\delta_{ab}\ge 0δab​≥0 (the minimum time between leading aircraft aaa and trailing aircraft bbb), and a finite set of precedence pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with x≠yx\ne yx=y, meaning that xxx must land before yyy. The separations satisfy the triangle inequality δac≤δab+δbc\delta_{ac}\le\delta_{ab}+\delta_{bc}δac​≤δab​+δbc​, as wake-vortex separations do for arrivals-only or departures-only operations.

A kkk-CPS sequence is a permutation σ\sigmaσ of the aircraft (position ppp receives aircraft σ(p)\sigma(p)σ(p)) with ∣σ(p)−p∣≤k|\sigma(p)-p|\le k∣σ(p)−p∣≤k for every ppp. A feasible schedule is a kkk-CPS sequence that places xxx before yyy for each precedence pair, together with landing times t1,…,tnt_1,\dots,t_nt1​,…,tn​ (by position) such that

tp≥0,tq−tp≥δσ(p)σ(q)(p<q).t_p\ge 0,\qquad t_q-t_p\ge\delta_{\sigma(p)\sigma(q)}\quad(p<q).tp​≥0,tq​−tp​≥δσ(p)σ(q)​(p<q).

There are no time windows. Its total delay is t1+⋯+tnt_1+\dots+t_nt1​+⋯+tn​, measured from time 000, at which all aircraft are available.

The CPS network has stages 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. A node of stage ppp is a sequence of min⁡{2k+1,p}\min\{2k+1,p\}min{2k+1,p} distinct aircraft that can occupy positions p−min⁡{2k+1,p}+1,…,pp-\min\{2k+1,p\}+1,\dots,pp−min{2k+1,p}+1,…,p (each within kkk of its position). Its last aircraft is its final aircraft. An arc joins a stage-ppp node iii to a stage-(p+1)(p+1)(p+1) node jjj when the sequences overlap: the first min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} aircraft of jjj are the last min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} aircraft of iii. A source-sink path picks one node per stage, and its sequence assigns position ppp to the final aircraft of the stage-ppp node. Precedence is incorporated by deleting every node that places yyy before xxx for some pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), or that places an aircraft outside the positions a pair allows it (§3.1). The result is the pruned network GGG. For nodes i,ji,ji,j, δi(j)\delta_i(j)δi​(j) is the separation between their final aircraft.

For a node jjj in stage ppp and times t1,…,tpt_1,\dots,t_pt1​,…,tp​ along a path to jjj, the paper uses the partial objective

θj(p)=t1+⋯+tp−1+(n−p+1) tp.\theta_j(p)=t_1+\dots+t_{p-1}+(n-p+1)\,t_p .θj​(p)=t1​+⋯+tp−1​+(n−p+1)tp​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the shortest-path equivalence (§5.2, p. 1656)

Give the arc (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) from stage p−1p-1p−1 to stage ppp the distance (n−p+1)δi(j)(n-p+1)\delta_i(j)(n−p+1)δi​(j), and source and sink arcs distance 000. Then a feasible schedule exists if and only if GGG has a source-sink path, and

min⁡(σ,t) feasible ∑p=1ntp  =  min⁡v source-sink path of G ∑p=2n(n−p+1) δvp−1(vp),\min_{(\sigma,t)\ \text{feasible}}\ \sum_{p=1}^{n}t_p\;=\;\min_{v\ \text{source-sink path of }G}\ \sum_{p=2}^{n}(n-p+1)\,\delta_{v_{p-1}}(v_p),(σ,t) feasiblemin​ p=1∑n​tp​=v source-sink path of Gmin​ p=2∑n​(n−p+1)δvp−1​​(vp​),

where each minimum exists exactly when the other does.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1 with Lemmas 1–2 (pp. 1652–1654): the source-sink paths of GGG are exactly the kkk-CPS sequences respecting the precedence pairs.
  2. Proposition 2 (p. 1656): in a schedule of minimum total delay, tp−tp−1=δσ(p−1)σ(p)t_p-t_{p-1}=\delta_{\sigma(p-1)\sigma(p)}tp​−tp−1​=δσ(p−1)σ(p)​ for every p≥2p\ge 2p≥2.
  3. Proposition 3 (p. 1656): all paths from the source to a node lying on some source-sink path contain the same set of aircraft.
  4. The recursion of §5.2 (p. 1656): with θj∗(p)\theta^*_j(p)θj∗​(p) the minimum of θj(p)\theta_j(p)θj​(p) over partial schedules ending at jjj, θj∗(1)=0\theta^*_j(1)=0θj∗​(1)=0 and
θj∗(p)=min⁡i∈P(j)(θi∗(p−1)+(n−p+1) δi(j)),\theta^*_j(p)=\min_{i\in P(j)}\big(\theta^*_i(p-1)+(n-p+1)\,\delta_i(j)\big),θj∗​(p)=i∈P(j)min​(θi∗​(p−1)+(n−p+1)δi​(j)),

where P(j)P(j)P(j) is the set of predecessors of jjj in GGG.

Significance

The result turns a sequencing problem over up to n!n!n! orders into a shortest-path computation on a directed acyclic graph with O(n(2k+1)2k+1)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+1})O(n(2k+1)2k+1) nodes, and it does so while respecting precedence constraints, which earlier CPS algorithms (Psaraftis 1980; Trivizas 1998) could not handle. It is the average-delay counterpart of the makespan algorithm of §4 and shares its network. The same network carries the discrete-time models of §6.

The paper's proof of the equivalence is one sentence ("follows from properties of shortest paths and is omitted here"). Propositions 2 and 3 are proved in a few lines, and Theorem 1 by an argument about windows of 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. A formal development makes explicit the conventions the prose leaves implicit (the time origin, pairwise separations, which nodes Proposition 3 refers to) and checks that the recursion and the shortest-path value really compute the minimum total delay.

Difficulty

The arc distances weight the separation into stage ppp by n−p+1n-p+1n−p+1, the number of aircraft whose landing it delays. The equivalence needs two directions. A path's length must be the total delay of the schedule that lands each aircraft at its predecessor's time plus the separation, and that schedule must satisfy every pairwise separation, not only the consecutive ones; this is where the triangle inequality enters. Conversely, every feasible schedule must have total delay at least the length of its sequence's path, and every feasible sequence must be a path of GGG. The last point is Theorem 1 with precedence pruning: a node sees only 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions, so detecting a violated precedence pair inside one node requires the position filter of §3.1 for pairs that reverse FCFS order. Proposition 3 is false for nodes that lie on no source-sink path, which the printed statement does not exclude.

Formalization scope

Aircraft and positions are Fin n, 0-based, and stages are 0-based natural numbers, so the arc into stage sss has distance (n−s)δi(j)(n-s)\delta_i(j)(n−s)δi​(j). Separations are real, nonnegative and satisfy the triangle inequality; feasibility requires them between every pair of positions. Landing times are real and nonnegative. The paper fixes no time origin, but its path length equals the total delay exactly when delays are measured from 000, and without a lower bound on the times the objective has no minimum. Minima are stated with IsLeast on sets of values, never with a real infimum. Feasibility and the existence of a path are stated separately, because the equality of least elements alone does not force them to exist.

The following loose phrases are given explicit readings. "In an optimal solution" (Proposition 2) means a feasible schedule whose total delay is at most that of every feasible schedule. "The CPS network" in Proposition 3 means nodes lying on a source-sink path, stated for the network without precedence pruning, which also covers the pruned one. "θ∗\theta^*θ∗" means the least element of the set of values of θj(p)\theta_j(p)θj​(p) over partial schedules ending at jjj, and the printed θj∗(s)\theta^*_j(s)θj∗​(s) is read as θj∗(p)\theta^*_j(p)θj∗​(p). The boundary value θj∗(1)=0\theta^*_j(1)=0θj∗​(1)=0 is not printed and is stated explicitly. Precedence pruning uses the printed Case II rule. Running times (the O(n(2k+1)2k+2)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+2})O(n(2k+1)2k+2) bound) are not formalized.

A trivializing formalization would require separations only between consecutive aircraft, define the minimum by the recursion itself, or use a network whose nodes need not be distinct or admissible. Here the minimum is defined directly over feasible schedules, separations are pairwise, and the nodes are checked against the paper's Figure 1 (stage sizes 2, 4, 7, 14, 14, 7 and 13 paths for n=6n=6n=6, k=1k=1k=1).

The development needs finite sums, permutations of Fin n and lists. The network layer (stages, arcs, precedence pruning, Theorem 1) is shared with the makespan and discrete-time missions of this series and reusable for any CPS objective. Proofs of any milestone, alternative proofs of the goal, and generalizations (asymmetric shifts, §3.2) are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Balakrishnan, B. G. Chandran, Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting, Operations Research 58(6), 1650–1665, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0869
  • H. N. Psaraftis, A Dynamic Programming Approach for Sequencing Groups of Identical Jobs, Operations Research 28(6), 1347–1359, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.6.1347
  • R. G. Dear, Y. S. Sherif, An Algorithm for Computer Assisted Sequencing and Scheduling of Terminal Area Operations, Transportation Research Part A 25(2–3), 129–139, 1991.
  • D. A. Trivizas, Optimal Scheduling with Maximum Position Shift (MPS) Constraints: A Runway Scheduling Application, Journal of Navigation 51(2), 250–266, 1998.
  • R. de Neufville, A. Odoni, Airport Systems: Planning, Design, and Management, McGraw-Hill, 2003.
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Reliable Facility Location Design Under the Risk of Disruptions 1: With R = J the Compact Level-Assignment Formulation Equals the Scenario-Based Stochastic ProgramResearch Paper

Motivation

Facility location models decide where to open depots, warehouses or service centres and which customers each one serves. Classical models assume that an open facility always works. In practice facilities are disrupted by weather, strikes, power loss or supplier failure, and a network designed for normal operation can become very expensive when its nearest facilities go down. Reliable facility location models place facilities so that the sum of the fixed cost and the expected transportation cost, taken over random facility failures, is minimal.

Cui, Ouyang and Shen (UCTC-FR-2010-02, 2010; published as Oper. Res. 58(4):998–1011) study the case in which each site fails independently with its own probability. The most direct model of this situation is a scenario-based stochastic program: list every pattern of failures, give it its probability, and let each customer be served optimally in each pattern. That program has 2J2^J2J scenarios for JJJ candidate sites and cannot be written down for realistic JJJ. The paper proposes instead a compact formulation in which each customer receives an ordered list of backup facilities ("levels") and the probability that each level is the one that serves her is carried by a small set of recursive variables. This mission is about the claim that the compact model loses nothing.

The level-assignment technique comes from Snyder and Daskin (Transp. Sci. 39(3):400–416, 2005), who treated the case of one common failure probability for all sites. The uniform-probability model of Snyder and Shen's textbook is on the platform as SupplyChainTheory_disruptions; it is a different model (one qqq, no cap on the number of levels) and is not reused here.

Setting

There are III customers i=0,…,I−1i = 0,\dots,I-1i=0,…,I−1 with demand rates λi≥0\lambda_i \ge 0λi​≥0 and JJJ candidate sites j=0,…,J−1j = 0,\dots,J-1j=0,…,J−1 with fixed costs fjf_jfj​ and failure probabilities 0≤qj<10 \le q_j < 10≤qj​<1. Failures are independent. Shipping one unit from site jjj to customer iii costs dijd_{ij}dij​, and each unit of missed demand of customer iii costs a penalty ϕi\phi_iϕi​. An emergency facility with index JJJ never fails (qJ=0q_J = 0qJ​=0), costs nothing to open (fJ=0f_J = 0fJ​=0), and "serves" at the penalty cost diJ=ϕid_{iJ} = \phi_idiJ​=ϕi​.

The compact model (RUFL). Each customer is assigned to facilities at levels r=0,…,Rr = 0,\dots,Rr=0,…,R, with R≥1R \ge 1R≥1; a level-rrr facility serves her exactly when all her facilities at levels 0,…,r−10,\dots,r-10,…,r−1 have failed. The variables are Xj∈{0,1}X_j\in\{0,1\}Xj​∈{0,1} (site jjj open), Yijr∈{0,1}Y_{ijr}\in\{0,1\}Yijr​∈{0,1} (facility jjj is customer iii's level-rrr facility) and PijrP_{ijr}Pijr​, the probability that jjj serves iii at level rrr. Constraints (1b)–(1d) say that each level holds one facility until the emergency facility appears, which happens exactly once, and that only open sites are used, each at most once. Constraints (1e)–(1f) fix PPP: Pij0=1−qjP_{ij0} = 1-q_jPij0​=1−qj​ and Pijr=(1−qj)∑k<Jqk1−qkPi,k,r−1Yi,k,r−1P_{ijr} = (1-q_j)\sum_{k<J}\frac{q_k}{1-q_k}P_{i,k,r-1}Y_{i,k,r-1}Pijr​=(1−qj​)∑k<J​1−qk​qk​​Pi,k,r−1​Yi,k,r−1​. The objective is

Φ(X,Y,P)=∑j=0J−1fjXj+∑i=0I−1∑j=0J∑r=0RλidijPijrYijr.\Phi(X,Y,P) = \sum_{j=0}^{J-1} f_jX_j + \sum_{i=0}^{I-1}\sum_{j=0}^{J}\sum_{r=0}^{R}\lambda_i d_{ij}P_{ijr}Y_{ijr}.Φ(X,Y,P)=j=0∑J−1​fj​Xj​+i=0∑I−1​j=0∑J​r=0∑R​λi​dij​Pijr​Yijr​.

The scenario model (SSP). A scenario is ω∈Ω={0,1}J\omega\in\Omega=\{0,1\}^Jω∈Ω={0,1}J, with δjω=1\delta_{j\omega}=1δjω​=1 if site jjj operates in ω\omegaω (and δJω=1\delta_{J\omega}=1δJω​=1 always). Its probability is pω=∏j<J(1−qj)δjωqj1−δjωp_\omega = \prod_{j<J}(1-q_j)^{\delta_{j\omega}}q_j^{1-\delta_{j\omega}}pω​=∏j<J​(1−qj​)δjω​qj1−δjω​​. With Yijω∈{0,1}Y_{ij\omega}\in\{0,1\}Yijω​∈{0,1} (customer iii served by jjj in ω\omegaω), (SSP) minimizes

Ψ(X,Y)=∑j=0J−1fjXj+∑i=0I−1∑j=0J∑ω∈ΩλidijpωYijω\Psi(X,Y) = \sum_{j=0}^{J-1} f_jX_j + \sum_{i=0}^{I-1}\sum_{j=0}^{J}\sum_{\omega\in\Omega}\lambda_i d_{ij}p_\omega Y_{ij\omega}Ψ(X,Y)=j=0∑J−1​fj​Xj​+i=0∑I−1​j=0∑J​ω∈Ω∑​λi​dij​pω​Yijω​

subject to ∑j=0JYijω=1\sum_{j=0}^{J}Y_{ij\omega}=1∑j=0J​Yijω​=1 and Yijω≤δjωXjY_{ij\omega}\le\delta_{j\omega}X_jYijω​≤δjω​Xj​ for regular jjj.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 10)

If R=JR = JR=J, both programs have optimal solutions, and for every optimal (X,Y,P)(X,Y,P)(X,Y,P) of (RUFL) and every optimal (X′,Y′)(X',Y')(X′,Y′) of (SSP),

Φ(X,Y,P)=Ψ(X′,Y′).\Phi(X,Y,P) = \Psi(X',Y').Φ(X,Y,P)=Ψ(X′,Y′).

The paper states this as "formulation (1a)–(1g) is equivalent to the stochastic programming formulation that covers all failure scenarios"; its proof shows equality of optimal values, and that is the reading formalized.

Milestones (Appendix A.1, pp. 32–34)

  1. Scenario-probability identity. For distinct regular sites j(0),…,j(r−1)j(0),\dots,j(r-1)j(0),…,j(r−1) and a facility j(r)j(r)j(r) not among them, the scenarios in which j(0),…,j(r−1)j(0),\dots,j(r-1)j(0),…,j(r−1) fail and j(r)j(r)j(r) operates have total probability
∑ω∈Ω(i,r)pω=(1−qj(r))∏ℓ=0r−1qj(ℓ).\sum_{\omega\in\Omega(i,r)}p_\omega = (1-q_{j(r)})\prod_{\ell=0}^{r-1}q_{j(\ell)}.ω∈Ω(i,r)∑​pω​=(1−qj(r)​)ℓ=0∏r−1​qj(ℓ)​.
  1. (RUFL) → (SSP). Every (RUFL)-feasible (X,Y,P)(X,Y,P)(X,Y,P) has an (SSP)-feasible (X,Y′)(X,Y')(X,Y′) with Ψ(X,Y′)=Φ(X,Y,P)\Psi(X,Y') = \Phi(X,Y,P)Ψ(X,Y′)=Φ(X,Y,P), for any RRR.
  2. Normalization. Some optimal solution of (SSP), with the same XXX, serves every customer in every scenario by her closest operating open facility, ties to the lowest index.
  3. (SSP) → (RUFL). If R=JR = JR=J, every normalized (SSP)-feasible (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) has a (RUFL)-feasible (X,Y′,P′)(X,Y',P')(X,Y′,P′) with Φ(X,Y′,P′)=Ψ(X,Y)\Phi(X,Y',P') = \Psi(X,Y)Φ(X,Y′,P′)=Ψ(X,Y).

Significance

The proposition says that, with enough levels, the compact model is exact: its optimal value is the true minimum expected cost over all failure patterns. The compact model has O(IJR)O(IJR)O(IJR) variables and constraints against O(IJ2J)O(IJ2^J)O(IJ2J) for (SSP), and after the standard linearization of the products PijrYijrP_{ijr}Y_{ijr}Pijr​Yijr​ it is an ordinary mixed-integer program to which the paper's Lagrangian relaxation applies. For R<JR<JR<J the paper notes the compact model is in general not equivalent; Proposition 1 is the anchor that says what the parameter RRR trades away.

The result is proved in the paper; as far as we know it has not been formalized. The work here is to formalize that proof: the product-measure computation behind milestone 1, the two explicit solution maps, and the exchange argument behind the normalization. The probability identity for "first success in an ordered list of independent trials" and the scenario-to-level bookkeeping are reusable for other reliability models built on Snyder–Daskin levels.

Difficulty

The cost identities are routine once the right bookkeeping is in place; the obstacle is that bookkeeping. In direction (RUFL) → (SSP) one must show that the recursion (1e)–(1f), which multiplies by qk/(1−qk)q_k/(1-q_k)qk​/(1−qk​) and sums over all regular kkk, collapses to the closed product (1−qj(r))∏ℓ<rqj(ℓ)(1-q_{j(r)})\prod_{\ell<r}q_{j(\ell)}(1−qj(r)​)∏ℓ<r​qj(ℓ)​ along a customer's assigned list, using that (1b)–(1d) put exactly one facility on each level until the emergency facility and that (1c) forbids repeats. Then the sum over the 2J2^J2J scenarios must be regrouped by the first operating facility on that list, which needs milestone 1 on a product space.

The converse direction is where R=JR=JR=J enters, and the naive attempt fails: an arbitrary optimal (SSP) solution may serve a customer by different, equally good facilities in different scenarios in ways that no single ordered list reproduces. The normalization step removes this freedom; only after it can one read off a single list per customer, and R=JR=JR=J guarantees that this list (all open sites no farther than the penalty, then JJJ) fits on the available levels.

Formalization scope

Indices are 0-based; facilities are Fin (J+1) with Fin.last J the emergency facility, and levels are Fin (R+1). The extended data diJ=ϕid_{iJ}=\phi_idiJ​=ϕi​, qJ=0q_J=0qJ​=0, and the conventions δJω=1\delta_{J\omega}=1δJω​=1, XJ=1X_J=1XJ​=1 are definitions, not hypotheses. Scenarios are Fin J → Bool and pωp_\omegapω​ is the explicit finite product; no measure theory is involved, and (17a) is a finite sum. Binary variables are real numbers constrained to {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}. R=JR = JR=J is expressed by taking the instance type Instance I J J; with the standing R≥1R\ge 1R≥1 this means J≥1J\ge1J≥1. Demand rates are nonnegative; no sign is assumed on ddd, ϕ\phiϕ or fff.

Two printed constraints are corrected, and the formalization commits to the corrections. The first sum in (1b) is printed over the regular sites j≤J−1j\le J-1j≤J−1; it runs here over all J+1J+1J+1 facilities, as the paper's own reading of (1b) requires. Constraint (17c) is printed as ∑iYijω≤δjωXj\sum_i Y_{ij\omega}\le\delta_{j\omega}X_j∑i​Yijω​≤δjω​Xj​, which gives each site a capacity of one customer per scenario and makes Proposition 1 false; it is stated here per customer, Yijω≤δjωXjY_{ij\omega}\le\delta_{j\omega}X_jYijω​≤δjω​Xj​.

The goal asserts existence of optimal solutions of both programs before comparing their values, so it cannot hold vacuously. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma on the probability that the first success among independent Bernoulli trials occurs at a given position, and an existence-of-optimum lemma for finite binary programs.

Selected references

  • X. Cui, Y. Ouyang, Z.-J. M. Shen, Reliable Facility Location Design under the Risk of Disruptions, UCTC-FR-2010-02, University of California Transportation Center, 2010; Operations Research 58(4):998–1011, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0801
  • L. V. Snyder, M. S. Daskin, Reliability models for facility location: the expected failure cost case, Transportation Science 39(3):400–416, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1040.0107
  • H. D. Sherali, A. Alameddine, A new reformulation-linearization technique for bilinear programming problems, Journal of Global Optimization 2(4):379–410, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122429
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Reliable Facility Location Design Under the Risk of Disruptions 2: Optimal Solutions Order Each Customer's Assignment Levels by DistanceResearch Paper

Why backup assignments matter

A facility location plan decides which sites to open and which customers each site serves. Real facilities fail: plants are shut by strikes, warehouses by floods, distribution centres by power outages. When a customer's facility is down, she is served by a backup facility, or not served at all at a penalty. Reliable facility location chooses sites and backup assignments together, minimizing fixed costs plus the expected transportation and penalty cost over the random failures.

Snyder and Daskin (2005) introduced the level-assignment formulation in which every customer receives a ranked list of facilities, and they assumed all sites fail with the same probability. Cui, Ouyang and Shen (2010) allow each site its own failure probability qjq_jqj​, which is the realistic case: a site in a flood plain and a site inland do not fail equally often. Their compact mixed-integer program (RUFL) is the subject of this mission.

Timeline.

  • Snyder and Daskin (2005), Transportation Science 39(3): level-assignment formulation of the reliability P-median and UFL problems, equal failure probability qqq; consecutive assignments are ordered by distance in an optimal solution.
  • Snyder and Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, Theorem 9.10 (textbook treatment): the same ordering for the reliable fixed-charge location problem with 0<q<10<q<10<q<1 and positive demands.
  • Cui, Ouyang and Shen (2010), UCTC-FR-2010-02 / Operations Research 58(4): site-dependent failure probabilities qjq_jqj​, a cap RRR on the number of levels, and Proposition 2, the ordering result for this model.

The model (RUFL)

There are customers i=0,…,I−1i = 0,\dots,I-1i=0,…,I−1 with demand rates λi\lambda_iλi​, and candidate sites j=0,…,J−1j = 0,\dots,J-1j=0,…,J−1 with fixed costs fjf_jfj​ and failure probabilities 0≤qj<10 \le q_j < 10≤qj​<1; failures are independent. Shipping one unit from jjj to iii costs dijd_{ij}dij​, and each unserved unit of customer iii costs a penalty ϕi\phi_iϕi​. An emergency facility with index JJJ represents non-service: fJ=0f_J = 0fJ​=0, qJ=0q_J = 0qJ​=0 and diJ=ϕid_{iJ} = \phi_idiJ​=ϕi​.

Each customer is assigned at levels r=0,…,Rr = 0,\dots,Rr=0,…,R, R≥1R\ge 1R≥1. Her level-rrr facility serves her exactly when all her facilities at levels 0,…,r−10,\dots,r-10,…,r−1 have failed. The variables are Xj∈{0,1}X_j\in\{0,1\}Xj​∈{0,1} (site jjj open), Yijr∈{0,1}Y_{ijr}\in\{0,1\}Yijr​∈{0,1} (facility jjj is customer iii's level-rrr facility) and PijrP_{ijr}Pijr​, the probability that jjj serves iii at level rrr. (RUFL) minimizes

Φ(X,Y,P)=∑j=0J−1fjXj+∑i=0I−1∑j=0J∑r=0RλidijPijrYijr\Phi(X,Y,P) = \sum_{j=0}^{J-1} f_jX_j + \sum_{i=0}^{I-1}\sum_{j=0}^{J}\sum_{r=0}^{R}\lambda_i d_{ij}P_{ijr}Y_{ijr}Φ(X,Y,P)=j=0∑J−1​fj​Xj​+i=0∑I−1​j=0∑J​r=0∑R​λi​dij​Pijr​Yijr​

subject to: at every level a customer has exactly one facility unless she has already reached the emergency facility (1b); only open sites are used, each at most once (1c); the emergency facility is assigned exactly once (1d); and the probabilities follow the transition equations

Pij0=1−qj,Pijr=(1−qj)∑k=0J−1qk1−qkPi,k,r−1Yi,k,r−1(1≤r≤R).P_{ij0} = 1-q_j,\qquad P_{ijr} = (1-q_j)\sum_{k=0}^{J-1}\frac{q_k}{1-q_k}P_{i,k,r-1}Y_{i,k,r-1}\quad (1\le r\le R).Pij0​=1−qj​,Pijr​=(1−qj​)k=0∑J−1​1−qk​qk​​Pi,k,r−1​Yi,k,r−1​(1≤r≤R).

So if a customer's levels are j0,j1,…j_0, j_1, \dotsj0​,j1​,…, then Pijrr=(1−qjr) qj0⋯qjr−1P_{i j_r r} = (1-q_{j_r})\,q_{j_0}\cdots q_{j_{r-1}}Pijr​r​=(1−qjr​​)qj0​​⋯qjr−1​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

Assume λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0 for every customer and qk>0q_k > 0qk​>0 for every regular site. In every optimal solution (X,Y,P)(X,Y,P)(X,Y,P) of (RUFL),

Yijr=1, Yik,r+1=1 ⟹ dij≤dik(0≤r, r+1≤R, 0≤j,k≤J),Y_{ijr} = 1,\ Y_{ik,r+1} = 1 \ \Longrightarrow\ d_{ij}\le d_{ik}\qquad (0\le r,\ r+1\le R,\ 0\le j,k\le J),Yijr​=1, Yik,r+1​=1 ⟹ dij​≤dik​(0≤r, r+1≤R, 0≤j,k≤J),

where diJ=ϕid_{iJ} = \phi_idiJ​=ϕi​.

Milestones (the proof of Appendix A.2)

  1. Swap identity. If (X,Y,P)(X,Y,P)(X,Y,P) is feasible with Yijr=Yik,r+1=1Y_{ijr} = Y_{ik,r+1} = 1Yijr​=Yik,r+1​=1 for regular j,kj,kj,k, exchanging jjj and kkk and recomputing PPP gives a feasible solution whose cost changes by
λi(1−qk)(dik−dij)Pijr.\lambda_i(1-q_k)(d_{ik}-d_{ij})P_{ijr}.λi​(1−qk​)(dik​−dij​)Pijr​.
  1. Emergency case. If instead k=Jk = Jk=J, moving JJJ up to level rrr and dropping jjj gives a feasible solution whose cost changes by λiPijr(ϕi−dij)\lambda_i P_{ijr}(\phi_i - d_{ij})λi​Pijr​(ϕi​−dij​).
  2. Positivity. If every regular qk>0q_k>0qk​>0, an assigned facility has Pijr>0P_{ijr}>0Pijr​>0.

Significance

Proposition 2 says that for a given set of facilities assigned to a customer, the optimal order of the levels depends only on the distances, not on the failure probabilities. A solution method may therefore sort each customer's assigned facilities by distance instead of searching over orders. The paper's Lagrangian subproblem (RSPi_ii​) uses exactly this: "following a similar argument to Proposition 2" (§3.3.1, p. 13), its objective depends only on the set of facilities chosen, which is what makes the set function of Proposition 3 (a separate mission of this series) well defined. The proposition does not say that the RRR nearest open facilities are the right ones: the paper's Example 1 (p. 11) shows a farther but more reliable facility can be optimal.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof exists. The equal-probability special case is published on Prove2Me as SupplyChainTheory.rflp_ordered_assignments (Snyder–Shen Theorem 9.10), in a different model (one qqq, no level cap). This mission adds the site-dependent case with a level cap, and it makes explicit two hypotheses the printed statement omits.

Difficulty

The exchange argument is short on paper, but its bookkeeping is exactly where a formal proof has to work. The paper's modified P′P'P′ keeps the old values at unlisted indices, and that array does not satisfy the transition equations, so feasibility of the swapped solution has to be shown with the recomputed probabilities, level by level, including the fact that levels after r+1r+1r+1 are unchanged. The emergency case is dismissed in one sentence; its cost change must be computed. Finally, "<0<0<0" needs λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0 and Pijr>0P_{ijr}>0Pijr​>0; the naive reading of the printed proposition, with qj=0q_j = 0qj​=0 allowed, is false, because a level-0 facility that never fails leaves all later levels with probability zero and in arbitrary order.

Formalization scope

Indices are 0-based. Facilities are Fin (J+1) with the emergency facility Fin.last J; levels are Fin (R+1); the extended data diJ=ϕid_{iJ}=\phi_idiJ​=ϕi​, qJ=0q_J=0qJ​=0 are definitions. XXX, YYY, PPP are real arrays, with (1g) requiring XXX, YYY to be 000 or 111. Constraint (1b) is printed with its first sum ending at J−1J-1J−1; it is formalized with the sum over all j≤Jj \le Jj≤J, the reading the paper's own explanation of (1b) gives. "Optimal" means feasible with objective at most that of every feasible solution; the feasible set is nonempty (send every customer to JJJ at level 0), so the goal is not vacuous. Proposition 2 carries the hypotheses λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0 and qk>0q_k>0qk​>0; without them it is false, and a statement that dropped them would be unprovable rather than trivial. The level rrr ranges over 0≤r≤R−10\le r\le R-10≤r≤R−1, the range in which level r+1r+1r+1 exists.

The development needs only finite sums and a recursion over levels; no measure theory is required. The recomputed probabilities transProb and the two moves swapY, emergencyUpY are reusable for any exchange argument on this formulation. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of the equivalence of the transition equations with the closed product form are welcome.

Selected references

  • Cui, T., Ouyang, Y., Shen, Z.-J. M., Reliable Facility Location Design under the Risk of Disruptions, UCTC-FR-2010-02, University of California Transportation Center, 2010; published in Operations Research 58(4):998–1011, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0801
  • Snyder, L. V., Daskin, M. S., Reliability Models for Facility Location: The Expected Failure Cost Case, Transportation Science 39(3):400–416, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1040.0107
  • Snyder, L. V., Shen, Z.-J. M., Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2019, §9.6. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119584445
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A Combinatorial Algorithm Minimizing Submodular Functions in Strongly Polynomial Time II: Minimizing a Submodular Function over a Ring Family Reduces to Minimizing over All SubsetsResearch Paper

Motivation

A submodular function on a finite set VVV is a function fff on subsets of VVV with f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)f(X \cup Y) + f(X \cap Y) \le f(X) + f(Y)f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y). Minimizing such a function is one of the central tractable problems of combinatorial optimization: it contains minimum cuts in directed graphs, matroid intersection and polymatroid problems, and many scheduling and facility-location subproblems. Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver showed in 1981 that it can be done in polynomial time with the ellipsoid method; in 2000, Schrijver (JCTB 80, 346–355) and, simultaneously, Iwata, Fleischer and Fujishige (J. ACM 48, 2001) gave the first combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithms.

In many applications the function is not defined on all subsets of VVV but only on a ring family: a collection closed under union and intersection, such as the order ideals of a precedence relation in scheduling, or the sets of a closure system. The last section of Schrijver's paper (§6, pp. 353–354) shows that nothing is lost: any algorithm minimizing submodular functions on all subsets of VVV also minimizes a submodular function given only on a ring family. This mission formalizes that reduction.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set. A collection C\mathcal CC of subsets of VVV is a ring family if X∪Y∈CX \cup Y \in \mathcal CX∪Y∈C and X∩Y∈CX \cap Y \in \mathcal CX∩Y∈C whenever X,Y∈CX, Y \in \mathcal CX,Y∈C. A real function fff is submodular on C\mathcal CC if

f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)(X,Y∈C).f(X \cup Y) + f(X \cap Y) \le f(X) + f(Y) \qquad (X, Y \in \mathcal C).f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)(X,Y∈C).

Following the paper, C\mathcal CC is normalized: ∅∈C\emptyset \in \mathcal C∅∈C, V∈CV \in \mathcal CV∈C, and Mu≠MvM_u \ne M_vMu​=Mv​ for all u≠vu \ne vu=v, where MvM_vMv​ is the smallest set of C\mathcal CC containing vvv. (Elements with the same MvM_vMv​ can be identified.) Under this normalization C\mathcal CC is the family of lower ideals of a partial order on VVV.

For X⊆VX \subseteq VX⊆V, the closure X‾\overline XX is the smallest set of C\mathcal CC containing XXX. For v∈Vv \in Vv∈V, LvL_vLv​ is the largest set of C\mathcal CC not containing vvv. The paper defines weights

c(v):=max⁡{0, f(Lv)−f(Lv∪{v})}(23)c(v) := \max\{0,\ f(L_v) - f(L_v \cup \{v\})\} \qquad (23)c(v):=max{0, f(Lv​)−f(Lv​∪{v})}(23)

with the modular extension c(X):=∑v∈Xc(v)c(X) := \sum_{v \in X} c(v)c(X):=∑v∈X​c(v), and the function on all subsets of VVV

g(X):=f(X‾)+c(X‾)(X⊆V).(26)g(X) := f(\overline X) + c(\overline X) \qquad (X \subseteq V). \qquad (26)g(X):=f(X)+c(X)(X⊆V).(26)

In Lean, VVV is a type with [Fintype V] [DecidableEq V], subsets are Finset V, C\mathcal CC is C : Set (Finset V), and the objects above are IsRingFamily C, SubmodularOn C f, closure C X, M C v, L C v, cw C f v (for c(v)c(v)c(v)), csum C f X (for c(X)c(X)c(X)) and g C f X, all in the namespace SchrijverSFM.Ring.

Formalization targets

Goal: the reduction

Under the normalization above, for fff submodular on C\mathcal CC:

g is submodular on all subsets of V,g \text{ is submodular on all subsets of } V,g is submodular on all subsets of V,

and, if U⊆VU \subseteq VU⊆V minimizes g(U)−c(U)g(U) - c(U)g(U)−c(U) over all subsets of VVV, then U‾∈C\overline U \in \mathcal CU∈C and

f(U‾)≤f(T)for all T∈C.f(\overline U) \le f(T) \qquad \text{for all } T \in \mathcal C.f(U)≤f(T)for all T∈C.

Both conjuncts are needed: the second alone follows almost from the definitions, while the first is what makes an all-subsets algorithm applicable to g−cg - cg−c in the first place.

Milestones

  1. C\mathcal CC is the collection of all lower ideals of some partial order on VVV (p. 353).
  2. LvL_vLv​ is the largest set in C\mathcal CC not containing vvv, equal to the union of the MuM_uMu​ not containing vvv, and Lv∪{v}∈CL_v \cup \{v\} \in \mathcal CLv​∪{v}∈C (p. 353, (23)).
  3. The one-element step (25): f(X)≤f(Y)+c(v)f(X) \le f(Y) + c(v)f(X)≤f(Y)+c(v) for X,Y∈CX, Y \in \mathcal CX,Y∈C, Y=X∪{v}Y = X \cup \{v\}Y=X∪{v}, v∉Xv \notin Xv∈/X.
  4. Monotonicity (24): f(Y)+c(Y)≥f(X)+c(X)f(Y) + c(Y) \ge f(X) + c(X)f(Y)+c(Y)≥f(X)+c(X) for X⊆YX \subseteq YX⊆Y in C\mathcal CC.
  5. The closure identities X‾∪Y‾=X∪Y‾\overline X \cup \overline Y = \overline{X \cup Y}X∪Y=X∪Y and X‾∩Y‾⊇X∩Y‾\overline X \cap \overline Y \supseteq \overline{X \cap Y}X∩Y⊇X∩Y.
  6. Display (27): ggg is submodular.
  7. Transfer of minimizers: if UUU minimizes g−cg - cg−c over 2V2^V2V, then U‾\overline UU minimizes fff over C\mathcal CC.

Significance

The reduction means that a single algorithm for unconstrained submodular minimization serves for every ring family, given only the sets MvM_vMv​. This is how ring-family constrained problems (for example minimum-cost closures and precedence-constrained scheduling objectives) are routinely handed to general submodular-minimization codes, and it is the standard justification for stating submodular minimization algorithms over 2V2^V2V only.

On the formal side, the mission produces a small reusable layer on ring families of finite sets (closure operator, the lower-ideal representation, the largest set avoiding an element) together with the monotonization trick (24), which is of independent use whenever a function on a lattice of sets has to be made monotone by a modular correction. The result is classical and its proof in the paper is complete; to our knowledge no machine-checked version exists. Companion mission I of this series formalizes the algorithm of §§2–5 itself; this mission does not depend on it, since the algorithm enters only as the hypothesis that a minimizer UUU of g−cg - cg−c is given.

Difficulty

Every step is elementary, but two points are easy to get wrong. First, (24) is proved on the page by assuming Y=X∪{v}Y = X \cup \{v\}Y=X∪{v}; reducing the general case X⊆YX \subseteq YX⊆Y to such one-element steps inside C\mathcal CC requires the normalization Mu≠MvM_u \ne M_vMu​=Mv​: without it a ring family can jump by more than one element (for C={∅,V}\mathcal C = \{\emptyset, V\}C={∅,V} with ∣V∣=2|V| = 2∣V∣=2 the inequality (24) fails for suitable fff). Second, the weights c(v)c(v)c(v) evaluate fff at Lv∪{v}L_v \cup \{v\}Lv​∪{v}, which belongs to C\mathcal CC only because of the same normalization; a formalization that drops it lets values of fff outside C\mathcal CC leak into ccc and ggg. The submodularity proof (27) also needs the asymmetric closure facts — equality for unions but only containment for intersections — which is exactly why the monotonicity (24) is required.

Formalization scope

  • VVV is a finite type with decidable equality; subsets are Finset V; C\mathcal CC is a Set (Finset V).
  • fff is a real function on all of Finset V; only its values on C\mathcal CC matter, and under the hypotheses no other value enters ccc, ggg or the conclusions. The paper allows any ordered field; the formalization uses R\mathbb RR.
  • The normalization of p. 353 is assumed as hypotheses: ∅ ∈ C, Finset.univ ∈ C, and M C u ≠ M C v for u ≠ v. No hypothesis f(∅)=0f(\emptyset) = 0f(∅)=0 is made; §6 does not use it.
  • The closure is the intersection (Finset.inf) of the sets of C\mathcal CC containing XXX, and LvL_vLv​ the union (Finset.sup) of the sets of C\mathcal CC avoiding vvv; their default values on an empty family are never reached under the hypotheses.
  • c(X)c(X)c(X) is the modular extension ∑v∈Xc(v)\sum_{v \in X} c(v)∑v∈X​c(v); the max⁡{0,⋅}\max\{0, \cdot\}max{0,⋅} in (23) is kept, so c≥0c \ge 0c≥0.
  • Submodularity of ggg on all subsets is the published platform definition NonmonotoneSubmod.Shared.Submodular.
  • Not formalized: the running-time claims of §6 ("we can find ccc by 2∣V∣2|V|2∣V∣ oracle calls", strongly polynomial time) and the oracle model; there is no machine model.
  • The goal does not assume (24) or (27), and it is not the minimizer-transfer statement alone, which would be near-definitional.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in the order listed, general lemmas on closure operators of ring families of Finsets, and the lower-ideal representation, which is reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Schrijver, A combinatorial algorithm minimizing submodular functions in strongly polynomial time, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 80 (2000), 346–355. https://doi.org/10.1006/jctb.2000.1989
  • S. Iwata, L. Fleischer, S. Fujishige, A combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithm for minimizing submodular functions, J. ACM 48 (2001), 761–777. https://doi.org/10.1145/502090.502096
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, The ellipsoid method and its consequences in combinatorial optimization, Combinatorica 1 (1981), 169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579273
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantitative Stability in Stochastic Programming: The Method of Probability Metrics 2: Linear Two-Stage Programs Are Lipschitz Stable in the Fortet–Mourier Metric ζ₂Research Paper

Why stability of two-stage programs matters

A linear two-stage stochastic program with fixed recourse chooses a here-and-now decision xxx before a random vector ξ\xiξ is observed, and pays a recourse cost afterwards. It is the basic model of stochastic programming, used in capacity planning, energy and supply-chain models. In practice the distribution μ\muμ of ξ\xiξ is never known exactly: it is estimated from data, replaced by a discrete scenario approximation, or perturbed for robustness. The question is how much the optimal value and the optimal decisions can move when μ\muμ is replaced by a nearby ν\nuν, and in which distance between probability measures "nearby" should be measured.

Rachev and Römisch (Math. Oper. Res. 27(4), 2002, doi:10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304; the mission cites the authors' preprint from edoc.hu-berlin.de) answer this with the method of probability metrics: they derive from the structure of the integrand a canonical distance on measures for each class of models. For linear two-stage programs the canonical distance is the Fortet–Mourier metric of order 2.

Timeline. Robinson and Wets (1987) studied qualitative stability of two-stage programs with respect to weak convergence of measures. Walkup and Wets (1969) had earlier established the piecewise-bilinear structure of the second-stage value function used here. Römisch and Schultz (1991) proved a quantitative stability result for two-stage programs with complete recourse in the Wasserstein metric W2W_2W2​. The present paper (published 2002) replaces complete recourse by relatively complete recourse plus dual feasibility, and W2W_2W2​ by the metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, which it bounds by a multiple of W2W_2W2​ (p. 13).

Setting

Let X⊆RmX\subseteq\mathbb R^mX⊆Rm be a nonempty polyhedron and Ξ⊆Rs\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^sΞ⊆Rs a polyhedron. Fix c∈Rmc\in\mathbb R^mc∈Rm, an (r,m‾)(r,\overline m)(r,m)-matrix WWW, and data q(ξ)∈Rm‾q(\xi)\in\mathbb R^{\overline m}q(ξ)∈Rm, h(ξ)∈Rrh(\xi)\in\mathbb R^rh(ξ)∈Rr and an (r,m)(r,m)(r,m)-matrix T(ξ)T(\xi)T(ξ) depending affine linearly on ξ\xiξ. The second-stage value is

Φ(u,t)=inf⁡{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},\Phi(u,t)=\inf\{uy:\ Wy=t,\ y\ge0\},Φ(u,t)=inf{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},

with pos⁡W={Wy:y≥0}\operatorname{pos}W=\{Wy:y\ge0\}posW={Wy:y≥0} and D={u:{z:W′z≤u}≠∅}D=\{u:\{z:W'z\le u\}\ne\emptyset\}D={u:{z:W′z≤u}=∅}. The integrand is f0(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x)f_0(\xi,x)=cx+\Phi(q(\xi),h(\xi)-T(\xi)x)f0​(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x) when h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise. For a Borel probability measure ν\nuν on Ξ\XiΞ the problem is

min⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ):x∈X},\min\Big\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi):x\in X\Big\},min{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ):x∈X},

with optimal value v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) and solution set S(ν)S(\nu)S(ν). Two assumptions are made: (A1) h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D for all (ξ,x)∈Ξ×X(\xi,x)\in\Xi\times X(ξ,x)∈Ξ×X; (A2) μ\muμ has a finite second moment.

The Fortet–Mourier metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ on P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_2(\Xi)P2​(Ξ), the probability measures on Ξ\XiΞ with finite second moment, is

ζ2(μ,ν)=sup⁡f∈F2(Ξ)∣∫Ξf dμ−∫Ξf dν∣,F2(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~)∣≤max⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥}.\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)=\sup_{f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)}\Big|\int_\Xi f\,d\mu-\int_\Xi f\,d\nu\Big|,\quad \mathcal F_2(\Xi)=\{f:|f(\xi)-f(\tilde\xi)|\le\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|\}.ζ2​(μ,ν)=f∈F2​(Ξ)sup​​∫Ξ​fdμ−∫Ξ​fdν​,F2​(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~​)∣≤max{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥}.

For an open bounded U⊇S(μ)\mathcal U\supseteq S(\mu)U⊇S(μ), the growth function is ψ(τ)=inf⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩cl⁡U}\psi(\tau)=\inf\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\mu(d\xi)-v(\mu): d(x,S(\mu))\ge\tau,\ x\in X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U\}ψ(τ)=inf{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩clU}, and Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η)\Psi(\eta)=\eta+\psi^{-1}(2\eta)Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η) with ψ−1(t)=sup⁡{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}\psi^{-1}(t)=\sup\{\tau\ge0:\psi(\tau)\le t\}ψ−1(t)=sup{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 13)

Under (A1), (A2), S(μ)≠∅S(\mu)\ne\emptysetS(μ)=∅ and U\mathcal UU an open bounded neighbourhood of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ), there are L>0L>0L>0 and δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that for every ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ) with ζ2(μ,ν)<δ\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)<\deltaζ2​(μ,ν)<δ:

∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤L ζ2(μ,ν),∅≠S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(L ζ2(μ,ν)) B.|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|\le L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu),\qquad \emptyset\ne S(\nu)\subseteq S(\mu)+\Psi(L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu))\,\mathbb B.∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤Lζ2​(μ,ν),∅=S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(Lζ2​(μ,ν))B.

The constants are existential, so the goal does not depend on any particular estimate of them.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 11): Φ\PhiΦ is finite and continuous on the polyhedral cone D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, piecewise of the form Cju⋅tC_ju\cdot tCj​u⋅t on finitely many polyhedral cones with disjoint interiors, convex in ttt and concave in uuu.
  2. Proposition 3.2 (p. 11): f0f_0f0​ is a normal convex integrand, and for ∥x∥≤r\|x\|\le r∥x∥≤r it satisfies ∣f0(ξ,x)−f0(ξ~,x)∣≤Lrmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥|f_0(\xi,x)-f_0(\tilde\xi,x)|\le Lr\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|∣f0​(ξ,x)−f0​(ξ~​,x)∣≤Lrmax{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥, a Lipschitz bound in xxx with factor L^max⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}\hat L\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}L^max{1,∥ξ∥2}, and ∣f0(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}|f_0(\xi,x)|\le Kr\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}∣f0​(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax{1,∥ξ∥2}.
  3. PFU⊇P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}\supseteq\mathcal P_2(\Xi)PFU​​⊇P2​(Ξ) (p. 13): every measure with finite second moment satisfies the integrability conditions of the general theory.
  4. Corollary 2.8 (p. 10): the general Lipschitz stability theorem in the metric ζg\zeta_gζg​ for convex models whose integrands lie, up to a factor LLL, in the class Fg\mathcal F_gFg​.

Significance

The theorem says that, under the two natural well-posedness conditions of linear recourse models, optimal values are Lipschitz continuous and solution sets move by at most Ψ(Lζ2)\Psi(L\zeta_2)Ψ(Lζ2​), where ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ only sees test functions with the local Lipschitz growth of the integrand. Since ζ2≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2\zeta_2\le(1+\int\|\xi\|^2d\mu+\int\|\xi\|^2d\nu)^{1/2}W_2ζ2​≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2​, the result contains the earlier W2W_2W2​ stability theorem.

The results are proved in the paper, except Lemma 3.1, which it cites from Walkup and Wets (1969). None of them is formalized in Mathlib or on Prove2Me. A formalization would provide a checked model of the two-stage recourse function, the Fortet–Mourier metrics, and an end-to-end quantitative stability theorem for stochastic programs, none of which exist in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds ∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣ by sup⁡x∣∫f0(⋅,x) d(μ−ν)∣\sup_x|\int f_0(\cdot,x)\,d(\mu-\nu)|supx​∣∫f0​(⋅,x)d(μ−ν)∣ and then by Lζ2L\zeta_2Lζ2​. Two steps fail. First, the supremum ranges over all of XXX, which may be unbounded, while f0(⋅,x)/Lf_0(\cdot,x)/Lf0​(⋅,x)/L lies in F2\mathcal F_2F2​ only for xxx in a bounded set; the argument must localize to X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU and then show, using convexity, that for ν\nuν close to μ\muμ the localized and global problems coincide. Second, the Lipschitz estimate in ξ\xiξ for f0f_0f0​ requires the piecewise-bilinear structure of Φ\PhiΦ (Lemma 3.1) and a chaining argument across the polyhedral pieces of Ξ\XiΞ; the integrand is not differentiable.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The paper never fixes its norm and all its constants are existential, so the Euclidean norm is a faithful instance. Second-stage vectors u,t,y,zu,t,y,zu,t,y,z are coordinate vectors Fin k → ℝ; index sets are 0-based.
  • A polyhedron is a finite intersection of closed half-spaces. The standing assumptions are: XXX a nonempty polyhedron, Ξ\XiΞ a polyhedron, q,h,Tq,h,Tq,h,T affine maps.
  • A measure in P(Ξ)\mathcal P(\Xi)P(Ξ) is a Borel probability measure on Rs\mathbb R^sRs with ν(Ξc)=0\nu(\Xi^c)=0ν(Ξc)=0; ∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ)\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi)∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ) is the extended-real integral of the published DupacovaWets.Consistency.expect over ν\nuν restricted to Ξ\XiΞ.
  • Φ\PhiΦ, f0f_0f0​, vvv and ψ\psiψ are extended-real infima (+∞+\infty+∞ over an empty set); "min" in ψ\psiψ is read as an infimum. ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, ζg\zeta_gζg​, ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 and Ψ\PsiΨ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the distance to a set is the extended distance (+∞+\infty+∞ to ∅\emptyset∅).
  • To rule out trivializations: every value bound states that v(μ)v(\mu)v(μ), v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) are finite before comparing them, so the extended-real arithmetic ∞−∞\infty-\infty∞−∞ cannot make it vacuous; in ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ a test function that is not integrable for both measures contributes +∞+\infty+∞, never a junk 000.
  • Disclosed readings: Proposition 3.2 leaves its radius rrr unquantified; it is stated with the constants first and then every r≥1r\ge1r≥1. Lemma 3.1's "pos⁡W×D\operatorname{pos}W\times DposW×D" is read as D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, in the order of Φ\PhiΦ's arguments. Corollary 2.8 adds μ,ν∈PFU(Ξ)\mu,\nu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\Xi)μ,ν∈PFU​​(Ξ), an assumption of Theorem 2.2 that its proof invokes; Theorem 3.3 needs no such addition, because milestone 3 supplies it.
  • Needed infrastructure: LP duality and the Walkup–Wets decomposition of Φ\PhiΦ; normal integrands and measurability of their infima; integrability under moment conditions; the general stability theorems (Theorems 2.2–2.3 of the paper) for d=0d=0d=0. The definitions of ζp\zeta_pζp​, Fg\mathcal F_gFg​ and normal integrands are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions toward any milestone, and proofs of the auxiliary facts (for example, that every f∈F2(Ξ)f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)f∈F2​(Ξ) is integrable for ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ)), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Mathematics of Operations Research 27(4) (2002) 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304 (cited here from the authors' preprint, edoc.hu-berlin.de)
  • D. W. Walkup, R. J-B Wets, Lifting projections of convex polyhedra, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 28 (1969) 465–475 (the paper's [55]).
  • S. M. Robinson, R. J-B Wets, Stability in two-stage stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 25 (1987) 1409–1416 (the paper's [37]).
  • W. Römisch, R. Schultz, Stability analysis for stochastic programs, Annals of Operations Research 30 (1991) 241–266 (the paper's [40]).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J-B Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer (the paper's [38]; normal integrands, Chapter 14).
  • S. T. Rachev, Probability Metrics and the Stability of Stochastic Models, Wiley, Chichester 1991 (the paper's [32]).
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Bounded-parameter Markov Decision Processes 1: The Optimistic and Pessimistic Optimal Interval Value Functions Satisfy Bellman-like EquationsResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision process is specified by numbers: transition probabilities and rewards. In practice these numbers are estimated from data, elicited from experts, or produced by aggregating the states of a larger model, and in each case what is actually known is a range for each parameter rather than its value. Givan, Leach and Dean (Artificial Intelligence, 2000) introduced bounded-parameter MDPs (BMDPs) to reason about a whole family of MDPs at once: every transition probability is only known to lie in a closed interval. Their motivation was state-space aggregation, where grouping states with similar but not identical dynamics yields exactly such interval bounds, and the same object later reappeared as the interval or "box" uncertainty set of robust MDPs (Nilim and El Ghaoui, 2005; Iyengar, 2005) and of optimistic exploration in reinforcement learning (Strehl and Littman, 2008).

Over such a family, the value of a policy is no longer a number but an interval, and "optimal" needs a definition. This mission formalizes the paper's answer: two total orders on intervals, the corresponding optimal policies, and the Bellman-like equations their interval value functions satisfy.

Setting

An exact MDP M=⟨Q,A,F,R⟩M=\langle Q,A,F,R\rangleM=⟨Q,A,F,R⟩ has a finite set QQQ of states, a finite nonempty set AAA of actions, transition probabilities Fpq(α)≥0F_{pq}(\alpha)\ge 0Fpq​(α)≥0 with ∑qFpq(α)=1\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\alpha)=1∑q​Fpq​(α)=1, a reward R(q)∈RR(q)\in\mathbb RR(q)∈R for each state and a discount rate 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. A policy is a map π:Q→A\pi:Q\to Aπ:Q→A; Π\PiΠ is the set of all policies. The value function VM,π(p)V_{M,\pi}(p)VM,π​(p) is the expected discounted sum of rewards ∑t≥0γt E[R(Xt)∣X0=p]\sum_{t\ge 0}\gamma^t\,\mathbb E[R(X_t)\mid X_0=p]∑t≥0​γtE[R(Xt​)∣X0​=p] along the Markov chain with transitions Fpq(π(p))F_{pq}(\pi(p))Fpq​(π(p)). The operators

VIM,π(v)(p)=R(p)+γ∑qFpq(π(p)) v(q),VIM,α(v)(p)=R(p)+γ∑qFpq(α) v(q)VI_{M,\pi}(v)(p)=R(p)+\gamma\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\pi(p))\,v(q),\qquad VI_{M,\alpha}(v)(p)=R(p)+\gamma\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\alpha)\,v(q)VIM,π​(v)(p)=R(p)+γq∑​Fpq​(π(p))v(q),VIM,α​(v)(p)=R(p)+γq∑​Fpq​(α)v(q)

act on value functions v:Q→Rv:Q\to\mathbb Rv:Q→R. V1≤domV2V_1\le_{\mathrm{dom}}V_2V1​≤dom​V2​ is the statewise order.

A BMDP M↕M_\updownarrowM↕​ gives for each p,q,αp,q,\alphap,q,α an interval [F↓pq(α),F↑pq(α)]⊆[0,1][F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha),F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)]\subseteq[0,1][F↓​pq​(α),F↑​pq​(α)]⊆[0,1] with ∑qF↓pq(α)≤1≤∑qF↑pq(α)\sum_q F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)\le 1\le\sum_q F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)∑q​F↓​pq​(α)≤1≤∑q​F↑​pq​(α), a reward RRR and a discount rate γ\gammaγ. Its members M∈M↕M\in M_\updownarrowM∈M↕​ are the exact MDPs with that RRR and γ\gammaγ and with FpqM(α)∈[F↓pq(α),F↑pq(α)]F^M_{pq}(\alpha)\in[F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha),F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)]FpqM​(α)∈[F↓​pq​(α),F↑​pq​(α)]. The interval value of a policy is

V↕π(q)=[min⁡M∈M↕VM,π(q), max⁡M∈M↕VM,π(q)]=[V↓π(q),V↑π(q)].V_\updownarrow{}_\pi(q)=\Big[\min_{M\in M_\updownarrow}V_{M,\pi}(q),\ \max_{M\in M_\updownarrow}V_{M,\pi}(q)\Big]=[V_\downarrow{}_\pi(q),V_\uparrow{}_\pi(q)].V↕​π​(q)=[M∈M↕​min​VM,π​(q), M∈M↕​max​VM,π​(q)]=[V↓​π​(q),V↑​π​(q)].

Intervals are compared by the optimistic order, which compares upper bounds first and breaks ties by lower bounds, and the pessimistic order, which compares lower bounds first:

[l1,u1]≤opt[l2,u2]  ⟺  u1<u2 ∨ (u1=u2∧l1≤l2),[l1,u1]≤pes[l2,u2]  ⟺  l1<l2 ∨ (l1=l2∧u1≤u2).[l_1,u_1]\le_{\mathrm{opt}}[l_2,u_2]\iff u_1<u_2\ \vee\ (u_1=u_2\wedge l_1\le l_2),\qquad [l_1,u_1]\le_{\mathrm{pes}}[l_2,u_2]\iff l_1<l_2\ \vee\ (l_1=l_2\wedge u_1\le u_2).[l1​,u1​]≤opt​[l2​,u2​]⟺u1​<u2​ ∨ (u1​=u2​∧l1​≤l2​),[l1​,u1​]≤pes​[l2​,u2​]⟺l1​<l2​ ∨ (l1​=l2​∧u1​≤u2​).

A policy πopt\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}πopt​ is optimistically optimal if V↕πopt(q)≥optV↕π(q)V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}(q)\ge_{\mathrm{opt}}V_\updownarrow{}_\pi(q)V↕​πopt​​(q)≥opt​V↕​π​(q) for all π\piπ and qqq; pessimistically optimal is defined with ≥pes\ge_{\mathrm{pes}}≥pes​. The optimal interval value functions are V↕opt=V↕πoptV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}V↕​opt​=V↕​πopt​​ and V↕pes=V↕πpesV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{pes}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{pes}}}V↕​pes​=V↕​πpes​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9, equations (25) and (26)

At every state ppp,

V↕opt(p)=max⁡α∈A, ≤opt[min⁡M∈M↕VIM,α(V↓opt)(p), max⁡M∈M↕VIM,α(V↑opt)(p)],V_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}(p)=\max_{\alpha\in A,\ \le_{\mathrm{opt}}}\Big[\min_{M\in M_\updownarrow}VI_{M,\alpha}(V_\downarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}})(p),\ \max_{M\in M_\updownarrow}VI_{M,\alpha}(V_\uparrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}})(p)\Big],V↕​opt​(p)=α∈A, ≤opt​max​[M∈M↕​min​VIM,α​(V↓​opt​)(p), M∈M↕​max​VIM,α​(V↑​opt​)(p)],

and the same with pes\mathrm{pes}pes in place of opt\mathrm{opt}opt. The maximum over actions is for the total order on intervals: attained by some action and an upper bound for every action.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: Theorem 3 (second sentence: VM,πV_{M,\pi}VM,π​ is the unique fixed point of VIM,πVI_{M,\pi}VIM,π​); Theorem 6 (comparison: u≤domVIM,π(u)u\le_{\mathrm{dom}}VI_{M,\pi}(u)u≤dom​VIM,π​(u) implies u≤domVM,πu\le_{\mathrm{dom}}V_{M,\pi}u≤dom​VM,π​, and its three variants); Lemma 1 (every member's values and backups are bracketed by finitely many order-maximizing MDPs); Lemma 2 (statewise composition of member MDPs dominates, or is dominated by, both components); Theorem 7 (π\piπ-maximizing and π\piπ-minimizing MDPs exist among the order-maximizing ones); Corollary 1 (V↓πV_\downarrow{}_\piV↓​π​ and V↑πV_\uparrow{}_\piV↑​π​ are a minimum and a maximum for ≤dom\le_{\mathrm{dom}}≤dom​); Lemma 3 (statewise composition of policies improves the upper, resp. lower, bounds); Theorem 8 (optimistically and pessimistically optimal policies exist).

Significance

Theorem 9 is the interval analogue of the Bellman optimality equation. It is what makes the optimal interval value functions computable: the paper's interval value iteration algorithms IVI↕optIVI_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}IVI↕​opt​ and IVI↕pesIVI_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{pes}}IVI↕​pes​ (Section 5) iterate exactly the right-hand sides of (25) and (26). The lower half of (26) is the max-min equation of robust dynamic programming with rectangular box uncertainty, and the upper half of (25) is the max-max equation behind optimistic planning; Theorem 9 states both, together with the tie-breaking second component, in one model. Theorems 7 and 8 are of independent use: a single member MDP is worst (or best) for a policy at all states at once, and the partial orders on interval value functions nevertheless have maxima over policies.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The platform has robust Bellman equations in other models (costs, general rectangular sets, a sup over nature) but nothing on BMDPs, interval value functions, or the orders ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​ and ≤pes\le_{\mathrm{pes}}≤pes​. The mission produces the paper's optimality theory end to end, from the comparison principle for exact MDPs to the two Bellman-like equations, on a model shared with the companion mission on interval policy evaluation.

Difficulty

The orders ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​ and ≤pes\le_{\mathrm{pes}}≤pes​ are total on intervals but only partial on interval value functions, and they are lexicographic. The obvious construction of an optimal policy, switching statewise to whichever of two policies has the better interval, fails: the composed policy need not dominate either component in ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​, because lower bounds can get worse at states where the upper bounds do not change (the paper says so explicitly, eq. (20)). Existence therefore needs a two-stage argument. A second obstacle is that V↓πV_\downarrow{}_\piV↓​π​ and V↑πV_\uparrow{}_\piV↑​π​ are defined statewise, as minima over an uncountable family; that one member attains them at every state simultaneously is a theorem (Theorem 7), and the Bellman-like equations rest on it. Finally, the inner minima in (25) act on V↓optV_\downarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}V↓​opt​, the lower bound of an optimistically chosen policy, which is not the componentwise best lower bound over policies; the equation couples the two components through the tie-break.

Formalization scope

QQQ and AAA are finite types, AAA is nonempty; QQQ may be empty. An exact MDP is a structure with transition function F p α q =Fpq(α)=F_{pq}(\alpha)=Fpq​(α), stochastic rows, reward R:Q→RR:Q\to\mathbb RR:Q→R and discount 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. VM,πV_{M,\pi}VM,π​ is defined as the convergent series ∑tγtPπtR\sum_t\gamma^tP_\pi^tR∑t​γtPπt​R, not as a solution of (2). Rewards of the BMDP are tight, as the paper assumes from footnote 3 on; reward intervals are not formalized. Members of M↕M_\updownarrowM↕​ form a subtype of exact MDPs with the BMDP's RRR and γ\gammaγ. The minima and maxima of Definition 3 and of (25)–(26) are the real infimum and supremum over that subtype, which is nonempty and on which values are bounded, so no junk value enters. Intervals are pairs (lower, upper); the orders (17) are spelled out. Policies are deterministic stationary maps Q→AQ\to AQ→A, the paper's Π\PiΠ. An ordering of QQQ is a bijection Fin |Q| ≃ Q, and the index rrr of Definition 1 is the largest index at which expression (9) does not exceed 1 (the page's phrase admits ties; only the largest index keeps the remaining mass inside its interval). Definition 8 is read as V↕opt=V↕πoptV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}V↕​opt​=V↕​πopt​​ for an optimistically optimal πopt\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}πopt​, so the goal is quantified over all optimistically (pessimistically) optimal policies; Theorem 8 is the milestone that makes this quantification non-vacuous. Lemma 3 is stated as in the Appendix (p. 36): part (d) concerns π4=π1⊕pesπ2\pi_4=\pi_1\oplus_{\mathrm{pes}}\pi_2π4​=π1​⊕pes​π2​, where p. 17 misprints π3\pi_3π3​.

A formalization in which members carry their own discount, rows need not sum to one, the minima range over all functions Q→A→Q→RQ\to A\to Q\to\mathbb RQ→A→Q→R, or V↕optV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}V↕​opt​ is the componentwise supremum over policies would make several statements false or trivial; each is ruled out above.

Contributions welcome beyond proofs of the milestones: a reusable theory of discounted policy evaluation for finite MDPs (the series representation, the fixed-point characterization, monotonicity of VIM,πVI_{M,\pi}VIM,π​), which other missions on finite MDPs can import.

Selected references

  • R. Givan, S. Leach, T. Dean, Bounded-parameter Markov decision processes, Artificial Intelligence 122 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0004-3702(00)00047-3
  • A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices, Operations Research 53(5), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0216
  • G. Iyengar, Robust dynamic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • A. Strehl, M. Littman, An analysis of model-based interval estimation for Markov decision processes, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 74(8), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcss.2007.08.009
  • M. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

The Sample Average Approximation Method for Stochastic Discrete Optimization 1: Under Assumption A, 1 − P(Ŝ^ε_N ⊂ S^ε) Decays Exponentially Fast in the Sample Size NResearch Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems in operations research ask for the best element of a finite set of alternatives when each alternative's cost is random: which projects to fund when resource use is uncertain, which crew pairings to fly when delays are random, which items to pack into a knapsack whose overflow is penalized. The expected cost is rarely available in closed form, because it is a high-dimensional integral over the distribution of the random data. The sample average approximation (SAA) method replaces the expectation by an average over a random sample and solves the resulting deterministic problem with a standard discrete optimization routine. The method is widely used in stochastic programming (see Shapiro, Dentcheva and Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming, SIAM 2009, Ch. 5, https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718751).

Kleywegt and Shapiro (preprint; published with Homem-de-Mello as SIAM J. Optim. 12(2):479–502, 2002, https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499363220) ask why the method works so well for discrete problems. Their answer is a large-deviations statement: when the feasible set is finite, the probability that the SAA problem returns a wrong answer decays exponentially in the sample size. This mission formalizes that result, Proposition 2.2 of the two-author preprint, together with its consistency companion, Proposition 2.1.

Setting

Let S\mathcal SS be a nonempty finite set, WWW a random element of a measurable space W\mathcal WW, and G:S×W→RG : \mathcal S \times \mathcal W \to \mathbb RG:S×W→R such that G(x,⋅)G(x,\cdot)G(x,⋅) is measurable and E∣G(x,W)∣<∞\mathbb E|G(x,W)| < \inftyE∣G(x,W)∣<∞ for every x∈Sx \in \mathcal Sx∈S. The true problem (1.1) is

v∗=min⁡x∈Sg(x),g(x)=E G(x,W).v^* = \min_{x \in \mathcal S} g(x), \qquad g(x) = \mathbb E\, G(x, W).v∗=x∈Smin​g(x),g(x)=EG(x,W).

Let W1,W2,…W^1, W^2, \dotsW1,W2,… be an independent, identically distributed sample with the law of WWW. The sample average function and the SAA problem (2.1) are

g^N(x)=1N∑n=1NG(x,Wn),v^N=min⁡x∈Sg^N(x).\hat g_N(x) = \frac1N \sum_{n=1}^N G(x, W^n), \qquad \hat v_N = \min_{x \in \mathcal S} \hat g_N(x).g^​N​(x)=N1​n=1∑N​G(x,Wn),v^N​=x∈Smin​g^​N​(x).

For ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0, the ε\varepsilonε-optimal sets are Sε={x∈S:g(x)≤v∗+ε}\mathcal S^\varepsilon = \{x \in \mathcal S : g(x) \le v^* + \varepsilon\}Sε={x∈S:g(x)≤v∗+ε} and S^Nε={x∈S:g^N(x)≤v^N+ε}\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N = \{x \in \mathcal S : \hat g_N(x) \le \hat v_N + \varepsilon\}S^Nε​={x∈S:g^​N​(x)≤v^N​+ε}; at ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0 they are the optimal sets S∗\mathcal S^*S∗ and S^N\hat{\mathcal S}_NS^N​. Two numbers drive the analysis: the maximal deviation δN=max⁡x∈S∣g^N(x)−g(x)∣\delta_N = \max_{x \in \mathcal S}|\hat g_N(x) - g(x)|δN​=maxx∈S​∣g^​N​(x)−g(x)∣ of (2.2), and the well-conditioning number

α(ε)=min⁡x∈S∖Sεg(x)−v∗−ε\alpha(\varepsilon) = \min_{x \in \mathcal S \setminus \mathcal S^\varepsilon} g(x) - v^* - \varepsilonα(ε)=x∈S∖Sεmin​g(x)−v∗−ε

of (2.3), the gap between the ε\varepsilonε-optimal solutions and the rest.

For a real random variable XXX with moment generating function M(t)=E etXM(t) = \mathbb E\, e^{tX}M(t)=EetX and logarithmic moment generating function Λ(t)=log⁡M(t)∈(−∞,+∞]\Lambda(t) = \log M(t) \in (-\infty, +\infty]Λ(t)=logM(t)∈(−∞,+∞], the rate function is I(z)=sup⁡t≥0{tz−Λ(t)}I(z) = \sup_{t \ge 0}\{tz - \Lambda(t)\}I(z)=supt≥0​{tz−Λ(t)}. Assumption A requires that for every x∈Sx \in \mathcal Sx∈S the moment generating function of G(x,W)G(x, W)G(x,W) be finite in a neighbourhood of t=0t = 0t=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2.2

Under Assumption A, for every ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0 there is γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0 with

lim sup⁡N→∞1Nlog⁡[1−P(S^Nε⊂Sε)]≤−γ.(2.5)\limsup_{N \to \infty} \frac1N \log\Big[1 - P\big(\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N \subset \mathcal S^\varepsilon\big)\Big] \le -\gamma. \tag{2.5}N→∞limsup​N1​log[1−P(S^Nε​⊂Sε)]≤−γ.(2.5)

The constant γ\gammaγ is not specified: it depends on α(ε)\alpha(\varepsilon)α(ε) through rate functions and cannot be computed before the problem is solved. The goal asserts only its existence, which is the paper's claim.

Milestones

  1. α(ε)>0\alpha(\varepsilon) > 0α(ε)>0 whenever S∖Sε≠∅\mathcal S \setminus \mathcal S^\varepsilon \ne \emptysetS∖Sε=∅ (2.3).
  2. δN<α(ε)/2\delta_N < \alpha(\varepsilon)/2δN​<α(ε)/2 implies S^Nε⊂Sε\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N \subset \mathcal S^\varepsilonS^Nε​⊂Sε.
  3. The union bound 1−P(S^Nε⊂Sε)≤∑x∈SP{∣g^N(x)−g(x)∣≥α(ε)/2}1 - P(\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N \subset \mathcal S^\varepsilon) \le \sum_{x \in \mathcal S} P\{|\hat g_N(x) - g(x)| \ge \alpha(\varepsilon)/2\}1−P(S^Nε​⊂Sε)≤∑x∈S​P{∣g^​N​(x)−g(x)∣≥α(ε)/2}.
  4. The large-deviations upper bound (2.4): 1Nlog⁡P(ZN≥a)≤−I(a)\frac1N \log P(Z_N \ge a) \le -I(a)N1​logP(ZN​≥a)≤−I(a) for i.i.d. averages ZNZ_NZN​.
  5. I(a)>0I(a) > 0I(a)>0 for aaa above the mean, when MMM is finite near 000.
  6. Under Assumption A, P{∣g^N(x)−g(x)∣≥r}≤e−Nγx+e−Nγx′P\{|\hat g_N(x) - g(x)| \ge r\} \le e^{-N\gamma_x} + e^{-N\gamma'_x}P{∣g^​N​(x)−g(x)∣≥r}≤e−Nγx​+e−Nγx′​ with γx,γx′>0\gamma_x, \gamma'_x > 0γx​,γx′​>0.

Companions

Proposition 2.1 (v^N→v∗\hat v_N \to v^*v^N​→v∗ w.p.1, and S^Nε⊂Sε\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N \subset \mathcal S^\varepsilonS^Nε​⊂Sε w.p.1 for NNN large enough), the almost-sure convergence δN→0\delta_N \to 0δN​→0 of (2.2), the singleton consequence (Sε={x∗}\mathcal S^\varepsilon = \{x^*\}Sε={x∗} implies S^Nε={x∗}\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N = \{x^*\}S^Nε​={x∗} eventually), the facts I(μ)=0=min⁡II(\mu) = 0 = \min II(μ)=0=minI, the Example of §3.2 showing that a sample size N>k/2N > k/2N>k/2 can be required, and the computation α(0)=min⁡ici\alpha(0) = \min_i c_iα(0)=mini​ci​ on the hypercube with best value 1/k1/p1/k^{1/p}1/k1/p (§4).

Significance

Proposition 2.2 explains the practical behaviour of the SAA method on discrete problems: an exact optimal solution of the true problem is obtained with probability approaching one exponentially fast, so a moderate sample often suffices even when the number of feasible solutions is astronomically large. It is the basis of the paper's replication argument (§3.2: the probability of success p(N)p(N)p(N) of one SAA replication tends to one exponentially fast) and identifies α(ε)\alpha(\varepsilon)α(ε) as the quantity that governs the difficulty of a stochastic discrete problem, which the numerical study of §4 then examines. Later sample-size estimates for SAA (Shapiro, Dentcheva and Ruszczyński 2009, §5.3) refine the same argument into explicit, non-asymptotic bounds.

The result is proved in the paper. The mission produces a machine-checked proof of it and of its ingredients, including a Lean statement of the Cramér–Chernoff upper bound with the rate function III in the extended reals and the positivity of III above the mean under a local moment condition. To our knowledge none of these is formalized on the platform or in Mathlib in this form.

Difficulty

The argument is short on paper; the formal difficulty is in the large-deviations step. Mathlib has the Chernoff inequality P(X≥a)≤e−ta EetXP(X \ge a) \le e^{-ta}\,\mathbb E e^{tX}P(X≥a)≤e−taEetX and the factorization of moment generating functions of independent sums, but the step from there to 1Nlog⁡P(ZN≥a)≤−I(a)\frac1N \log P(Z_N \ge a) \le -I(a)N1​logP(ZN​≥a)≤−I(a) requires passing to a supremum over ttt in the extended reals, handling ttt where M(t)=∞M(t) = \inftyM(t)=∞, and the case P(ZN≥a)=0P(Z_N \ge a) = 0P(ZN​≥a)=0. The positivity I(a)>0I(a) > 0I(a)>0 requires Λ′(0)=μ\Lambda'(0) = \muΛ′(0)=μ, i.e. differentiating the moment generating function at an interior point of its domain. A naive attempt that works with real logarithms fails at probability zero, where log⁡0\log 0log0 is not −∞-\infty−∞, and an attempt that bounds δN\delta_NδN​ by Chebyshev's inequality gives only a polynomial rate.

Formalization scope

The feasible set is a Finset of an arbitrary type X, assumed nonempty; minima and maxima over it are Finset.inf' and Finset.sup', so they are attained. The sample is a sequence W : ℕ → Ω → 𝒲 of measurable maps on a probability space, mutually independent (iIndepFun) and identically distributed with W 0; the paper's WnW^nWn is W (n - 1), and g(x)g(x)g(x) is the expectation of G(x,W1)G(x, W^1)G(x,W1). Measurability of G(x,⋅)G(x,\cdot)G(x,⋅) is Borel measurability. Logarithms of probabilities are ENNReal.log, with log⁡0=−∞\log 0 = -\inftylog0=−∞, and the limit superior in (2.5) is taken in the extended reals; this is the paper's convention and it makes the goal correct when Sε=S\mathcal S^\varepsilon = \mathcal SSε=S, where the event is sure. Assumption A is stated as integrability of etG(x,W)e^{tG(x,W)}etG(x,W) for ttt near 000, not through the value of Mathlib's mgf, which is 000 where the expectation is infinite. The logarithmic moment generating function is the published definition BellWilliams2001.ThresholdPolicy.logMGF (extended-real valued, +∞+\infty+∞ off the domain of MMM), and III is the supremum over t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 only, as on p. 3. Wherever α(ε)\alpha(\varepsilon)α(ε) appears, the nonemptiness of S∖Sε\mathcal S \setminus \mathcal S^\varepsilonS∖Sε is a hypothesis; the goal does not mention α\alphaα and needs none.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: with Real.log the event "S^Nε⊂Sε\hat{\mathcal S}^\varepsilon_N \subset \mathcal S^\varepsilonS^Nε​⊂Sε is sure" would give log⁡0=0\log 0 = 0log0=0 and make the goal false, and a rate function built from mgf would count infinite moment generating functions as Λ=log⁡0=0\Lambda = \log 0 = 0Λ=log0=0; neither encoding is used.

A complete development needs the Cramér–Chernoff bound for i.i.d. sums with an extended-real rate function, differentiability of the moment generating function at interior points, and the strong law of large numbers applied to finitely many functions. The large-deviations items (milestones 4 and 5, and I(μ)=0I(\mu) = 0I(μ)=0) are stated for an arbitrary i.i.d. real sequence and are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any item, including the optional examples, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. J. Kleywegt and A. Shapiro, The sample average approximation method for stochastic discrete optimization, preprint (two-author version), https://edoc.hu-berlin.de/server/api/core/bitstreams/2dcf2d5b-5fb9-44d1-b36a-5e378c803717/content. Published with T. Homem-de-Mello in SIAM J. Optim. 12(2):479–502, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499363220
  • A. Dembo and O. Zeitouni, Large Deviations Techniques and Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-5320-4
  • A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory, SIAM, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718751
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Dynamical SystemsOperations ResearchStochastic Systems+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Power of Two Choices in Randomized Load Balancing I: In the Limiting Supermarket System the Expected Time Converges to T_d(λ) = Σ λ^((d^i−d)/(d−1))Research Paper

Motivation

Randomized load balancing asks how much a dispatcher gains from a little information. In the supermarket model, jobs arrive at nnn servers and each job inspects a few servers chosen at random before joining one. With one random choice every server is an independent M/M/1 queue, and the expected time a job spends in the system is 1/(1−λ)1/(1-\lambda)1/(1−λ) at load λ\lambdaλ. With two choices it is exponentially smaller as λ→1−\lambda \to 1^-λ→1−. This "power of two choices" underlies the design of distributed schedulers, hashing schemes and server farms, where querying every server is too expensive but querying two is cheap.

Timeline:

  • 1994/1999. Azar, Broder, Karlin and Upfal proved the static version, balanced allocations: throwing nnn balls into nnn bins with d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 choices per ball gives a maximum load of log⁡log⁡n/log⁡d+O(1)\log\log n/\log d + O(1)loglogn/logd+O(1) w.h.p., against Θ(log⁡n/log⁡log⁡n)\Theta(\log n/\log\log n)Θ(logn/loglogn) for one choice (SIAM J. Comput. 1999).
  • 1996. Vvedenskaya, Dobrushin and Karpelevich derived the dynamic limiting equations for d=2d = 2d=2 and showed convergence of their trajectories to the fixed point, without a rate (Problems of Information Transmission 32(1), 1996).
  • 1996/2001. Mitzenmacher, independently, introduced the limiting system for general ddd, proved doubly exponential tails along every trajectory and exponential convergence to the fixed point in a weighted L1L_1L1​ potential, and derived the limiting expected time Td(λ)T_d(\lambda)Td​(λ) (IEEE TPDS 2001). This mission formalizes Section 2 of that paper.

Setting

Customers arrive as a Poisson stream of rate λn\lambda nλn, 0<λ<10<\lambda<10<λ<1, at nnn FIFO servers. Each customer chooses ddd servers independently and uniformly at random with replacement and joins the one holding the fewest customers; service times are exponential with mean 111. Let si(t)s_i(t)si​(t) be the fraction of servers holding at least iii customers at time ttt.

A state is a sequence s=(s0,s1,s2,… )s = (s_0, s_1, s_2, \dots)s=(s0​,s1​,s2​,…) of reals with s0=1s_0 = 1s0​=1, si≥0s_i \ge 0si​≥0 and s0≥s1≥s2≥⋯s_0 \ge s_1 \ge s_2 \ge \cdotss0​≥s1​≥s2​≥⋯. The empty state has s0=1s_0 = 1s0​=1 and si=0s_i = 0si​=0 for i≥1i \ge 1i≥1. As n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ the tails follow the limiting system

dsidt=λ (si−1d−sid)−(si−si+1)(i≥1),s0=1.(1)\frac{ds_i}{dt} = \lambda\,(s_{i-1}^d - s_i^d) - (s_i - s_{i+1}) \quad (i \ge 1), \qquad s_0 = 1. \tag{1}dtdsi​​=λ(si−1d​−sid​)−(si​−si+1​)(i≥1),s0​=1.(1)

A trajectory is a map t↦s(t)t \mapsto s(t)t↦s(t), t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, whose values are states and whose coordinates satisfy (1) (from the right at t=0t = 0t=0). Throughout, d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 is an integer.

The fixed point is πi=λ(di−1)/(d−1)\pi_i = \lambda^{(d^i - 1)/(d - 1)}πi​=λ(di−1)/(d−1), so π0=1\pi_0 = 1π0​=1, π1=λ\pi_1 = \lambdaπ1​=λ, π2=λ1+d\pi_2 = \lambda^{1+d}π2​=λ1+d. A customer arriving in state sss becomes the iii-th customer of its queue with probability si−1d−sids_{i-1}^d - s_i^dsi−1d​−sid​ and then waits for iii services, so the expected time it spends in the system is

E(s)=∑i=1∞i (si−1d−sid).E(s) = \sum_{i=1}^{\infty} i\,(s_{i-1}^d - s_i^d).E(s)=i=1∑∞​i(si−1d​−sid​).

The target constant is

Td(λ)=∑i=1∞λdi−dd−1.T_d(\lambda) = \sum_{i=1}^{\infty} \lambda^{\frac{d^i - d}{d-1}}.Td​(λ)=i=1∑∞​λd−1di−d​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 2

For d≥2d \ge 2d≥2 and 0<λ<10 < \lambda < 10<λ<1, Td(λ)<∞T_d(\lambda) < \inftyTd​(λ)<∞, and:

if sj(0)=0 for some j, then E(s(t))→t→∞Td(λ);if s(0) is empty, then E(s(t))≤Td(λ)  ∀t≥0.\text{if } s_j(0) = 0 \text{ for some } j, \text{ then } E(s(t)) \xrightarrow[t\to\infty]{} T_d(\lambda);\qquad \text{if } s(0) \text{ is empty, then } E(s(t)) \le T_d(\lambda) \ \ \forall t \ge 0.if sj​(0)=0 for some j, then E(s(t))t→∞​Td​(λ);if s(0) is empty, then E(s(t))≤Td​(λ)  ∀t≥0.

The hypothesis sj(0)=0s_j(0) = 0sj​(0)=0 holds for every initial state that comes from a finite system.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • Lemma 2. π\piπ is the unique fixed point of (1) with ∑i≥1si<∞\sum_{i\ge1} s_i < \infty∑i≥1​si​<∞.
  • Theorem 2. If sj(0)=0s_j(0) = 0sj​(0)=0 for some jjj, there are constants N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, β>1\beta>1β>1, γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, independent of ttt, with si(t)≤γ αβis_i(t) \le \gamma\,\alpha^{\beta^i}si​(t)≤γαβi for all i≥Ni \ge Ni≥N, t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. From the empty state, si(t)≤πis_i(t) \le \pi_isi​(t)≤πi​ for all iii and t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
  • Theorem 3. There are weights wi≥1w_i \ge 1wi​≥1 such that Φ(t)=∑i≥1wi∣si(t)−πi∣\Phi(t) = \sum_{i\ge1} w_i |s_i(t) - \pi_i|Φ(t)=∑i≥1​wi​∣si​(t)−πi​∣ satisfies Φ(t)≤c0e−δt\Phi(t) \le c_0 e^{-\delta t}Φ(t)≤c0​e−δt (δ>0\delta > 0δ>0) whenever Φ(0)<∞\Phi(0) < \inftyΦ(0)<∞, and in particular whenever sj(0)=0s_j(0) = 0sj​(0)=0 for some jjj.
  • Corollary 1. Under the conditions of Theorem 3 (weights wi≥1w_i \ge 1wi​≥1 fixed before the trajectory, with Φ(0)<∞\Phi(0) < \inftyΦ(0)<∞, or sj(0)=0s_j(0) = 0sj​(0)=0 for some jjj), ∑i≥1∣si(t)−πi∣≤c0e−δt\sum_{i\ge1} |s_i(t) - \pi_i| \le c_0 e^{-\delta t}∑i≥1​∣si​(t)−πi​∣≤c0​e−δt.
  • Proof of Corollary 2, display. ∑i≥1i(si−1d−sid)=∑i≥0sid\sum_{i\ge1} i(s_{i-1}^d - s_i^d) = \sum_{i\ge0} s_i^d∑i≥1​i(si−1d​−sid​)=∑i≥0​sid​ for a state with si→0s_i \to 0si​→0.
  • Lemma 4. The drift of (1) is Lipschitz in ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 on states, with constant 2+2dλ2 + 2d\lambda2+2dλ.

Significance

The comparison T1(λ)=1/(1−λ)T_1(\lambda) = 1/(1-\lambda)T1​(λ)=1/(1−λ) against Td(λ)T_d(\lambda)Td​(λ) is the quantitative content of the power of two choices: the companion mission shows Td(λ)/log⁡T1(λ)→1/log⁡dT_d(\lambda)/\log T_1(\lambda) \to 1/\log dTd​(λ)/logT1​(λ)→1/logd as λ→1−\lambda \to 1^-λ→1−, an exponential improvement. Corollary 2 is what connects that number to the dynamics: it says the fixed point's expected time is actually reached from realistic initial states, and is an upper bound from an empty start. Theorem 2's comparison argument and Theorem 3's weighted potential are reused across the mean-field analysis of load-balancing variants (threshold policies, heterogeneous servers, work stealing), so the formal statements here are templates for that literature.

All results are proved in the paper (Theorem 3's proof is written out for d=2d = 2d=2 with a remark that it extends). None has a machine-checked proof that we know of. The work is formalizing the known arguments for all d≥2d \ge 2d≥2, including the parts the paper delegates to a citation: quasimonotone comparison for countable ODE systems in Theorem 2, and the upper right Dini derivative handling of ∣ϵi∣|\epsilon_i|∣ϵi​∣ in Theorem 3.

Difficulty

The system is infinite-dimensional, so standard finite-dimensional ODE comparison and Lyapunov theorems do not apply as stated. Theorem 2 rests on a monotonicity property (raising the initial tails raises them for all time) that the paper justifies by a coupling intuition and a citation to a comparison theorem for quasimonotone systems; that theorem must be supplied for ℓ∞\ell^\inftyℓ∞-bounded countable systems. The plain L1L_1L1​ distance is nonincreasing along trajectories but does not decay exponentially by a direct estimate; the weights wiw_iwi​ must be built so that every coordinate's contribution to dΦ/dtd\Phi/dtdΦ/dt is dominated by −δwi∣ϵi∣-\delta w_i |\epsilon_i|−δwi​∣ϵi​∣, while staying geometrically bounded so that Φ(0)<∞\Phi(0) < \inftyΦ(0)<∞ under the doubly exponential tails of Theorem 2. Exchanging t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ with the infinite sum defining EEE needs uniform tail control, which is again Theorem 2.

Formalization scope

  • Namespace PowerTwoChoices.Limit; λ is lam : ℝ, d:Nd : ℕd:N with 2≤d2 \le d2≤d, 0<λ<10 < \lambda < 10<λ<1 in every theorem.
  • A state is x : ℕ → ℝ with x 0 = 1, nonnegative and antitone. A trajectory is s : ℝ → ℕ → ℝ, a state for every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0, with HasDerivWithinAt on Set.Ici 0 for each coordinate i≥1i \ge 1i≥1: right derivative at t=0t = 0t=0, two-sided for t>0t > 0t>0.
  • Exponents are natural numbers: πi=λ∑k<idk\pi_i = \lambda^{\sum_{k<i} d^k}πi​=λ∑k<i​dk, and TdT_dTd​'s iii-th term is λ∑1≤k<idk\lambda^{\sum_{1\le k<i} d^k}λ∑1≤k<i​dk.
  • Φ\PhiΦ, the L1L_1L1​ distance, EEE and TdT_dTd​ are sums in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so a divergent series is ∞\infty∞, never a default 000. "Converges exponentially" (Definition 2) means Φ(t)≤c0e−δt\Phi(t) \le c_0 e^{-\delta t}Φ(t)≤c0​e−δt for all t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 with real c0c_0c0​ and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0; δ\deltaδ may depend on the trajectory. The paper's d(t)d(t)d(t) is renamed l1Dist.
  • Time is real and t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞ is Filter.atTop.
  • Every theorem quantifies over trajectories; existence of a trajectory from a given state (Picard iteration, cited by the paper) is not part of the mission. The class is nonempty: the constant trajectory at π\piπ is one.
  • Ruled out: summing EEE or TdT_dTd​ as a real tsum (a divergent series would make the upper bound free and the limit attainable by a junk 000), dropping the summability condition in Lemma 2 ((1,1,… )(1,1,\dots)(1,1,…) is also a fixed point), choosing Theorem 3's weights after the trajectory, and stating anything for d=2d = 2d=2 only.
  • Needed infrastructure: comparison principles for quasimonotone countable ODE systems, Dini-derivative Grönwall estimates, and interchange of limits and ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 sums. All of these are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of such lemmas as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Mitzenmacher, The Power of Two Choices in Randomized Load Balancing, IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems 12(10), 2001, pp. 1094–1104. https://doi.org/10.1109/71.963420
  • Y. Azar, A. Z. Broder, A. R. Karlin, E. Upfal, Balanced Allocations, SIAM Journal on Computing 29(1), 1999, pp. 180–200. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539795288490
  • N. D. Vvedenskaya, R. L. Dobrushin, F. I. Karpelevich, Queueing System with Selection of the Shortest of Two Queues: An Asymptotic Approach, Problems of Information Transmission 32(1), 1996, pp. 15–27.
  • T. G. Kurtz, Approximation of Population Processes, SIAM, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970333
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Designing a Call Center with Impatient Customers II: In the Halfin–Whitt Regime the Scaled Erlang-A Queue Converges to a Diffusion with Piecewise-Linear DriftResearch Paper

Motivation

Telephone call centers are large service systems: hundreds of agents answer callers who wait in a queue and hang up when their patience runs out. Staffing them is a trade-off between the cost of agents and the quality of service, and in large centers both the efficiency (agents busy almost all the time) and the service level (most callers answered almost immediately) can be high at once. Garnett, Mandelbaum and Reiman (M&SOM 4(3), 2002) study the simplest model that captures customer abandonment, the Erlang-A or M/M/N+MM/M/N+MM/M/N+M queue, and derive approximations for it in the regime where the number of agents is large.

Their Theorem 2 is the process-level justification of these approximations: the queue-length process, centred at the number of agents and scaled by its square root, converges to a one-dimensional diffusion. The steady-state performance formulas of the paper (delay probability, abandonment probability, waiting times) are computed from this diffusion and its stationary law.

Timeline.

  • Halfin and Whitt (1981) proved the corresponding limit for the M/M/NM/M/NM/M/N queue without abandonment, in the regime N(1−ρN)→β\sqrt N(1-\rho_N) \to \betaN​(1−ρN​)→β with β>0\beta > 0β>0 (Oper. Res. 29(3)). The limit is a diffusion with drift −μ(β+x)-\mu(\beta + x)−μ(β+x) below 000 and constant drift −μβ-\mu\beta−μβ above.
  • Fleming, Stolyar and Simon (1994) conjectured the limit with abandonment, with a slightly different centering, and proved the weak limit of the stationary distributions.
  • Garnett, Mandelbaum and Reiman (2002) state the process limit for 0<θ<∞0 < \theta < \infty0<θ<∞ as Theorem 2, with the extensions θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 and θ=∞\theta = \inftyθ=∞ as Theorem 2* in Appendix C.

Setting

Fix a service rate μ>0\mu > 0μ>0. For each N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 the NNN-th system has NNN statistically identical agents, Poisson arrivals of rate λN>0\lambda_N > 0λN​>0, exponential service times of rate μ\muμ, an unlimited waiting room served first come, first served, and exponential patience of rate θN>0\theta_N > 0θN​>0 for every caller. A caller whose wait in queue reaches their patience abandons and does not return. The number of callers in the system, QN(t)Q_N(t)QN​(t), is a birth–death process on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} with birth rate λN\lambda_NλN​ and death rate min⁡(k,N)μ+(k−N)+θN\min(k, N)\mu + (k-N)^+\theta_Nmin(k,N)μ+(k−N)+θN​ in state kkk. Its initial value QN(0)Q_N(0)QN​(0) is an arbitrary random variable.

The traffic intensity is ρN=λN/(Nμ)\rho_N = \lambda_N/(N\mu)ρN​=λN​/(Nμ). The centred and scaled process is

qN(t)=QN(t)−NN,t≥0.q_N(t) = \frac{Q_N(t) - N}{\sqrt N}, \qquad t \ge 0 .qN​(t)=N​QN​(t)−N​,t≥0.

When qN≥0q_N \ge 0qN​≥0 it counts waiting callers and when qN≤0q_N \le 0qN​≤0 it counts idle agents, both in units of N\sqrt NN​.

For β∈R\beta \in \mathbb Rβ∈R and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0, the drift is the piecewise-linear function

f(x)={−μ(β+x),x≤0,−(μβ+θx),x>0,f(x) = \begin{cases} -\mu(\beta + x), & x \le 0,\\ -(\mu\beta + \theta x), & x > 0,\end{cases}f(x)={−μ(β+x),−(μβ+θx),​x≤0,x>0,​

and the limit diffusion qqq solves dq(t)=f(q(t)) dt+2μ db(t)dq(t) = f(q(t))\,dt + \sqrt{2\mu}\,db(t)dq(t)=f(q(t))dt+2μ​db(t), where bbb is a standard Brownian motion independent of q(0)q(0)q(0). The noise is additive, so this means: qqq has continuous paths and q(t)=q(0)+∫0tf(q(s)) ds+2μ b(t)q(t) = q(0) + \int_0^t f(q(s))\,ds + \sqrt{2\mu}\,b(t)q(t)=q(0)+∫0t​f(q(s))ds+2μ​b(t) for all t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. Below 000 it behaves like an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with restraining force μ\muμ, above 000 like one with restraining force θ\thetaθ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 216)

Assume

lim⁡N→∞N(1−ρN)=β∈(−∞,∞),lim⁡N→∞θN=θ∈(0,∞),\lim_{N\to\infty}\sqrt N(1-\rho_N) = \beta \in (-\infty,\infty), \qquad \lim_{N\to\infty}\theta_N = \theta \in (0,\infty),N→∞lim​N​(1−ρN​)=β∈(−∞,∞),N→∞lim​θN​=θ∈(0,∞),

and qN(0)⇒νq_N(0) \Rightarrow \nuqN​(0)⇒ν for a probability law ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR. Then

qN⇒qin D[0,∞),q_N \Rightarrow q \quad\text{in } D[0,\infty),qN​⇒qin D[0,∞),

where qqq is the solution of dq=f(q) dt+2μ dbdq = f(q)\,dt + \sqrt{2\mu}\,dbdq=f(q)dt+2μ​db with q(0)∼νq(0) \sim \nuq(0)∼ν, and this solution is unique in law.

Milestone: the limit equation is well posed (Theorem 2, p. 216)

On every probability space with a standard Brownian motion bbb and an independent initial value X0X_0X0​, the equation has a solution adapted to σ(X0,b(s):s≤t)\sigma(X_0, b(s): s \le t)σ(X0​,b(s):s≤t), and any two solutions with the same bbb and initial value are indistinguishable.

Milestone: infinitesimal moments (Appendix C, p. 224)

The infinitesimal expectation μN(x)\mu_N(x)μN​(x) and variance σN2(x)\sigma_N^2(x)σN2​(x) of qNq_NqN​ at the point xxx, as displayed on p. 224, satisfy

lim⁡N→∞μN(x)=f(x),lim⁡N→∞σN2(x)=2μ(x∈R).\lim_{N\to\infty}\mu_N(x) = f(x), \qquad \lim_{N\to\infty}\sigma_N^2(x) = 2\mu \qquad (x \in \mathbb R).N→∞lim​μN​(x)=f(x),N→∞lim​σN2​(x)=2μ(x∈R).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 is the basis for the paper's QED (quality- and efficiency-driven) approximations QN≈N+qNQ_N \approx N + q\sqrt NQN​≈N+qN​, which give explicit formulas for the probability of delay, the probability of abandonment and the waiting-time distribution in terms of β\betaβ, μ\muμ and θ\thetaθ. Unlike the M/M/NM/M/NM/M/N case, β\betaβ may be of either sign: abandonment keeps the system stable even when the offered load exceeds the number of agents. The resulting square-root staffing rule N=R+βRN = R + \beta\sqrt RN=R+βR​, with R=λ/μR = \lambda/\muR=λ/μ, is used in call-center practice.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper by Stone's criteria for birth–death processes, with uniqueness of the limit equation delegated to the literature. No many-server process limit exists on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. A formal proof would give the first machine-checked heavy-traffic process limit for a many-server queue, and the infrastructure (Poisson time-change representation of a birth–death process, path-space weak convergence to a continuous diffusion, well-posedness of a Lipschitz additive-noise SDE) would serve every other diffusion limit in queueing theory.

Difficulty

The infinitesimal-moment computation is elementary; it identifies the limit but does not prove convergence. The hard step is the passage from generator convergence to weak convergence of processes on D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞): tightness of {qN}\{q_N\}{qN​} in the Skorokhod space, which needs control of the jumps (of size 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​) and of the unbounded state space, and identification of every limit point as a solution of the equation, which needs uniqueness of the limit. A pointwise limit of the drifts at each fixed xxx is not enough: the convergence has to be controlled locally uniformly along the paths. A finite-dimensional limit at fixed times is weaker than the theorem.

Formalization scope

  • Queue. QNQ_NQN​ is realized by the time-change representation of Mandelbaum, Massey and Reiman (1998), cited by the paper: QN(t)=QN(0)+A(λNt)−S(μ∫0tmin⁡(QN(s),N) ds)−R(θN∫0t(QN(s)−N)+ ds)Q_N(t) = Q_N(0) + A(\lambda_N t) - S(\mu\int_0^t \min(Q_N(s), N)\,ds) - R(\theta_N \int_0^t (Q_N(s)-N)^+\,ds)QN​(t)=QN​(0)+A(λN​t)−S(μ∫0t​min(QN​(s),N)ds)−R(θN​∫0t​(QN​(s)−N)+ds), with A,S,RA, S, RA,S,R independent unit-rate Poisson processes independent of QN(0)Q_N(0)QN​(0). This has the birth–death law above.
  • Time. Paths are functions on R\mathbb RR; every condition is imposed for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 only. Brownian time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​.
  • Indexing. NNN is both the index and the number of agents; every hypothesis on the NNN-th system is imposed for N≥1N \ge 1N≥1. λN\lambda_NλN​, θN\theta_NθN​ are real sequences and μ\muμ is fixed.
  • Weak convergence. All QNQ_NQN​ live on one probability space, which is no loss since only their laws matter. qN(0)⇒νq_N(0) \Rightarrow \nuqN​(0)⇒ν is convergence of E g(qN(0))E\,g(q_N(0))Eg(qN​(0)) for every bounded continuous ggg. qN⇒qq_N \Rightarrow qqN​⇒q is stated in coupling form (Skorokhod representation with almost-sure uniform convergence on compact time intervals), which is equivalent to J1J_1J1​ weak convergence when the limit is continuous.
  • Limit. The SDE is pathwise (Lebesgue integral, no Itô integral). Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal with every path continuous and every coordinate measurable. q(0)q(0)q(0) is independent of bbb, which is implicit in the paper. The goal asserts existence of a solution with qN⇒qq_N \Rightarrow qqN​⇒q and uniqueness of its law; dropping the uniqueness clause, fixing ν\nuν to a point mass, restricting to β>0\beta > 0β>0, μ=1\mu = 1μ=1, θ=μ\theta = \muθ=μ, or the stationary case is a different theorem.
  • Infinitesimal moments. Defined exactly as displayed, with ⌊⋅⌋\lfloor\cdot\rfloor⌊⋅⌋ the integer part. The display is printed for θ=0\theta = 0θ=0; the milestone is its 0<θ<∞0 < \theta < \infty0<θ<∞ instance with the limit fff of Theorem 2, pointwise in xxx.
  • Not covered. The cases θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 and θ=∞\theta = \inftyθ=∞ of Theorem 2* and the interchange of limits (Part 2).

Contributions welcome: a Poisson time-change existence theorem, tightness criteria in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞), well-posedness of Lipschitz SDEs with additive noise, and the martingale-problem approach to identifying limits.

Selected references

  • O. Garnett, A. Mandelbaum, M. Reiman, Designing a Call Center with Impatient Customers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 4(3):208–227, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.4.3.208.7753
  • S. Halfin, W. Whitt, Heavy-Traffic Limits for Queues with Many Exponential Servers, Operations Research 29(3):567–588, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • P. J. Fleming, A. Stolyar, B. Simon, Heavy Traffic Limit for a Mobile Phone System Loss Model, Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. on Telecommunication Systems Modeling and Analysis, 1994.
  • A. Mandelbaum, W. A. Massey, M. I. Reiman, Strong Approximations for Markovian Service Networks, Queueing Systems 30:149–201, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019112920622
  • S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316658
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CombinatoricsProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography 4: A Random Subset Sum of l Uniform Elements of a Finite Abelian Group Is on Average Within √(|G|/2^l) of UniformResearch Paper

Motivation

Regev's On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography (J. ACM 56(6), 2009, Article 34; doi:10.1145/1568318.1568324) introduced the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem and built a public-key cryptosystem on it. The source for this mission is that published J. ACM article. The paper's main theorem, a quantum reduction from worst-case lattice problems to LWE, is outside this series; this mission formalizes a self-contained piece of finite combinatorics from §5.

In the cryptosystem the public key is a list of mmm LWE samples, and a bit is encrypted by adding up a uniformly random subset of them. Semantic security rests on one fact: if the public key were truly uniform, the sum of a random subset of it would be close to uniform, so the ciphertext would carry no information about the bit. Claim 5.3 (p. 34:36) makes this precise for an arbitrary finite abelian group GGG. It is a special case of the leftover hash lemma of Impagliazzo and Zuckerman (1989), in which the family of functions b↦∑ibigib \mapsto \sum_i b_i g_ib↦∑i​bi​gi​ indexed by g∈Glg \in G^lg∈Gl is a universal hash family. Variants of the same statement appear in the security proofs of most lattice-based encryption schemes that use random subset sums, including the dual-Regev and GPV-style constructions.

Setting

Let GGG be a finite abelian group, written additively, with ∣G∣|G|∣G∣ elements, and let l≥0l \ge 0l≥0 be an integer. For g=(g1,…,gl)∈Glg = (g_1, \dots, g_l) \in G^lg=(g1​,…,gl​)∈Gl and b=(b1,…,bl)∈{0,1}lb = (b_1, \dots, b_l) \in \{0,1\}^lb=(b1​,…,bl​)∈{0,1}l the subset sum ∑ibigi\sum_i b_i g_i∑i​bi​gi​ is the sum of the gig_igi​ with bi=1b_i = 1bi​=1 (the empty subset gives 000). The distribution of the sum of a uniformly random subset of g1,…,glg_1, \dots, g_lg1​,…,gl​ is

Pg(h)=12l ∣{ b∈{0,1}l∣∑ibigi=h }∣,h∈G.P_g(h) = \frac{1}{2^l}\,\bigl|\{\, b \in \{0,1\}^l \mid \textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = h \,\}\bigr|, \qquad h \in G.Pg​(h)=2l1​​{b∈{0,1}l∣∑i​bi​gi​=h}​,h∈G.

The paper defines the statistical distance of two densities as ∫∣φ1−φ2∣\int |\varphi_1 - \varphi_2|∫∣φ1​−φ2​∣, with range [0,2][0,2][0,2], and notes that the same definition applies to discrete random variables (p. 34:14). The distance of PgP_gPg​ from the uniform distribution on GGG is therefore

Δ(g)=∑h∈G∣Pg(h)−1∣G∣∣,\Delta(g) = \sum_{h \in G} \Bigl| P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|} \Bigr|,Δ(g)=h∈G∑​​Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​​,

with no factor 12\tfrac1221​. Expectations and probabilities over ggg refer to a uniform choice of g1,…,gl∈Gg_1, \dots, g_l \in Gg1​,…,gl​∈G, that is, the uniform distribution on all ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l tuples, repetitions allowed: Expg[F(g)]=∣G∣−l∑g∈GlF(g)\mathrm{Exp}_g[F(g)] = |G|^{-l}\sum_{g \in G^l} F(g)Expg​[F(g)]=∣G∣−l∑g∈Gl​F(g).

In Lean these objects are RegevLWE.SubsetSum.subsetSum, P, statDistUniform and expectG.

Formalization targets

Goal: Claim 5.3

Expg[Δ(g)]≤∣G∣2landPr⁡g[Δ(g)>∣G∣/2l4]≤∣G∣2l4.\mathop{\mathrm{Exp}}_g\bigl[\Delta(g)\bigr] \le \sqrt{\frac{|G|}{2^l}} \qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pr_g\Bigl[\Delta(g) > \sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}\Bigr] \le \sqrt[4]{\frac{|G|}{2^l}}.Expg​[Δ(g)]≤2l∣G∣​​andgPr​[Δ(g)>4∣G∣/2l​]≤42l∣G∣​​.

Both sentences of the claim are in the goal. The second is what the security proof (Lemma 5.4, p. 34:37) uses: for all but a ∣G∣/2l4\sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}4∣G∣/2l​ fraction of public keys, the random subset sum is within ∣G∣/2l4\sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}4∣G∣/2l​ of uniform. The constants are exactly as printed.

Milestones

  1. The ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm as a collision probability (p. 34:36). For every ggg, with b,b′b, b'b,b′ independent and uniform in {0,1}l\{0,1\}^l{0,1}l,
∑hPg(h)2=Pr⁡b,b′[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]≤12l+Pr⁡b,b′[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi∣b≠b′].\sum_{h} P_g(h)^2 = \Pr_{b,b'}\Bigl[\textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i\Bigr] \le \frac{1}{2^l} + \Pr_{b,b'}\Bigl[\textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i \Bigm| b \neq b'\Bigr].h∑​Pg​(h)2=b,b′Pr​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]≤2l1​+Prb,b′​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​​b=b′].
  1. Collisions of distinct subsets (p. 34:37). For any b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′, Pr⁡g[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]=1/∣G∣\Pr_g[\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i] = 1/|G|Prg​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]=1/∣G∣.
  2. Expected ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm (p. 34:37). Expg[∑hPg(h)2]≤1/2l+1/∣G∣\mathrm{Exp}_g[\sum_h P_g(h)^2] \le 1/2^l + 1/|G|Expg​[∑h​Pg​(h)2]≤1/2l+1/∣G∣.
  3. Cauchy–Schwarz and the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ identity (p. 34:37), pointwise in ggg:
∑h∣Pg(h)−1∣G∣∣≤∣G∣1/2(∑h(Pg(h)−1∣G∣)2)1/2,∑h(Pg(h)−1∣G∣)2=∑hPg(h)2−1∣G∣.\sum_h \Bigl|P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr| \le |G|^{1/2}\Bigl(\sum_h \Bigl(P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr)^2\Bigr)^{1/2}, \qquad \sum_h \Bigl(P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr)^2 = \sum_h P_g(h)^2 - \frac{1}{|G|}.h∑​​Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​​≤∣G∣1/2(h∑​(Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​)2)1/2,h∑​(Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​)2=h∑​Pg​(h)2−∣G∣1​.

Significance

The result. Claim 5.3 is the step in the security proof of Regev's cryptosystem that removes the public key from the picture: once the key is replaced by uniform samples (by the LWE assumption), the claim shows that an encryption is statistically close to uniform, independently of the encrypted bit. The parameter choice m≥(1+ϵ)(n+1)log⁡pm \ge (1+\epsilon)(n+1)\log pm≥(1+ϵ)(n+1)logp of Lemma 5.4 is exactly what makes ∣G∣/2m|G|/2^m∣G∣/2m negligible for G=Zpn×ZpG = \mathbb{Z}_p^n \times \mathbb{Z}_pG=Zpn​×Zp​. Without the claim the cryptosystem would have a hardness assumption but no reduction from it.

Formalizing it. The claim is proved, with a complete argument in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of this statement, or of the leftover hash lemma for subset-sum hash families over a general finite abelian group, exists in Mathlib or on the platform. A formal proof gives a reusable, constant-exact statement of the subset-sum leftover hash lemma with the paper's normalization of statistical distance. The four milestones are standard facts about finite averages and collision probabilities that recur in many cryptographic security proofs.

Difficulty

There is no deep step; the work is in organizing finite counting arguments without loss. Two points need care. The collision fact Pr⁡g[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]=1/∣G∣\Pr_g[\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i] = 1/|G|Prg​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]=1/∣G∣ holds for every pair b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′ only because the coefficients bi−bi′b_i - b'_ibi​−bi′​ lie in {−1,0,1}\{-1, 0, 1\}{−1,0,1}: for a general linear form over a group with torsion, a nonzero coefficient vector need not give a uniformly distributed sum, so an argument that treats the coefficients as arbitrary integers fails. And passing from the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound to the expected ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ distance requires the exchange of expectation and square root in the right direction (concavity), which is easy to misapply. The bound must hold for every finite abelian group and every lll, including l=0l = 0l=0 and ∣G∣=1|G| = 1∣G∣=1, with no asymptotic slack.

Formalization scope

  • GGG is any type with [AddCommGroup G] [Fintype G] [DecidableEq G]; l:Nl : ℕl:N, and l=0l = 0l=0 is allowed (then PgP_gPg​ is the point mass at 000 and the claim holds). No hypothesis is added to the paper's statement: ∣G∣≥1|G| \ge 1∣G∣≥1 holds for every group.
  • {0,1}l\{0,1\}^l{0,1}l is encoded as Fin l → Bool; ggg ranges over all functions Fin l → G, so the uniform choice of ggg is over all ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l tuples with repetition, not over lll-element subsets of GGG.
  • Every expectation and probability is an exact finite average with real values: Expg[F]=∣G∣−l∑gF(g)\mathrm{Exp}_g[F] = |G|^{-l}\sum_g F(g)Expg​[F]=∣G∣−l∑g​F(g), and Pr⁡g[E]\Pr_g[E]Prg​[E] is the number of tuples satisfying EEE divided by ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l. Probabilities over (b,b′)(b, b')(b,b′) are counts over the (2l)2(2^l)^2(2l)2 pairs; the conditional probability given b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′ divides by (2l)2−2l(2^l)^2 - 2^l(2l)2−2l. At l=0l = 0l=0 the paper's conditional probability is undefined; Lean's convention 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0 makes milestone 1 read 1≤11 \le 11≤1 there, which is consistent with the paper.
  • The statistical distance is ∑h∣Pg(h)−1/∣G∣∣\sum_h |P_g(h) - 1/|G||∑h​∣Pg​(h)−1/∣G∣∣, without 12\tfrac1221​. A formalization with the 12\tfrac1221​-normalized total variation distance would state a weaker result (half the bound) and is excluded. "More than" in the second sentence is strict, "at most" is ≤\le≤. The fourth root is Real.sqrt (Real.sqrt x).
  • Milestone 4 states only the first two steps of the paper's final chain (the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality and the identity), pointwise in ggg; the remaining two steps (Jensen for the square root and the substitution of milestone 3) are part of the goal. Its milestone text quotes the whole chain for context.
  • No definitions beyond the four above are needed, and no measure theory. Proofs of the milestones, and alternative proofs of the goal (for instance via Fourier analysis on GGG), are welcome.

Selected references

  • O. Regev, On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography, Journal of the ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009. doi:10.1145/1568318.1568324
  • R. Impagliazzo and D. Zuckerman, How to Recycle Random Bits, Proc. 30th IEEE FOCS, 248–253, 1989. doi:10.1109/SFCS.1989.63486
  • J. Håstad, R. Impagliazzo, L. A. Levin and M. Luby, A Pseudorandom Generator from any One-way Function, SIAM Journal on Computing 28(4), 1364–1396, 1999. doi:10.1137/S0097539793244708
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium 1: Under Regret-Matching (2.2), the Empirical Distributions of Play Converge Almost Surely to the Set of Correlated EquilibriaResearch Paper

Motivation

A correlated equilibrium (Aumann 1974) is a probability distribution over strategy profiles of a game such that no player gains by deviating from a recommended strategy, given the recommendation. It is the solution concept of choice when players can condition on common signals, and its set is a convex polytope defined by linear inequalities, which makes it computationally tractable in a way that Nash equilibrium is not. A natural question in learning in games is whether simple adaptive behaviour by individual players, each using only their own payoffs and the observed history, leads to it.

Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) answer this with regret matching: each player switches away from their last action with probabilities proportional to the regret for not having played other actions in the past. They show that if every player uses this rule, the empirical distribution of play converges almost surely to the set of correlated equilibria. The procedure and its analysis became standard references for no-regret learning, internal (swap) regret, and the counterfactual-regret-minimization algorithms used in large imperfect-information games.

Timeline. Foster and Vohra (1997) obtained convergence to correlated equilibria by calibrated forecasting. Fudenberg and Levine (1999) gave conditionally consistent procedures with the same consequence. Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) gave the regret-matching procedure (2.2), in which a player's probabilities depend on regrets only, together with a Blackwell-approachability variant (their Theorem A, the subject of the companion mission 2 of this series).

Setting

A finite game Γ=(N,(Si)i∈N,(ui)i∈N)\Gamma=(N,(S^i)_{i\in N},(u^i)_{i\in N})Γ=(N,(Si)i∈N​,(ui)i∈N​) has a finite set of players NNN, a finite strategy set SiS^iSi for each player, and payoffs ui:S→Ru^i:S\to\mathbb Rui:S→R on S=∏iSiS=\prod_i S^iS=∏i​Si. A probability distribution ψ\psiψ on SSS is a correlated ε\varepsilonε-equilibrium if for every player iii and all j,k∈Sij,k\in S^ij,k∈Si

∑s: si=jψ(s) [ui(k,s−i)−ui(s)]≤ε;\sum_{s:\,s^i=j}\psi(s)\,[u^i(k,s^{-i})-u^i(s)]\le\varepsilon ;s:si=j∑​ψ(s)[ui(k,s−i)−ui(s)]≤ε;

a correlated equilibrium is the case ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0.

The game is played at t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,…, producing a history ht=(s1,…,st)h_t=(s_1,\dots,s_t)ht​=(s1​,…,st​). For j,k∈Sij,k\in S^ij,k∈Si the regret of player iii is

Dti(j,k)=1t∑τ≤t: sτi=j[ui(k,sτ−i)−ui(sτ)],Rti(j,k)=max⁡{Dti(j,k),0}:D^i_t(j,k)=\frac1t\sum_{\tau\le t:\,s^i_\tau=j}[u^i(k,s^{-i}_\tau)-u^i(s_\tau)],\qquad R^i_t(j,k)=\max\{D^i_t(j,k),0\}:Dti​(j,k)=t1​τ≤t:sτi​=j∑​[ui(k,sτ−i​)−ui(sτ​)],Rti​(j,k)=max{Dti​(j,k),0}:

the average gain player iii would have had by playing kkk every time they played jjj. Fix μ\muμ with μ>2Mi(mi−1)\mu>2M^i(m^i-1)μ>2Mi(mi−1) for every iii, where Mi≥∣ui∣M^i\ge|u^i|Mi≥∣ui∣ and mi=∣Si∣m^i=|S^i|mi=∣Si∣. Under regret matching (2.2), if player iii last played jjj, then at t+1t+1t+1 they play each k≠jk\ne jk=j with probability Rti(j,k)/μR^i_t(j,k)/\muRti​(j,k)/μ and repeat jjj with the remaining probability; the first-period mixed actions are arbitrary, and given the history the players randomize independently. The empirical distribution of play is zt(s)=1t∣{τ≤t:sτ=s}∣z_t(s)=\frac1t|\{\tau\le t:s_\tau=s\}|zt​(s)=t1​∣{τ≤t:sτ​=s}∣.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Main Theorem

Almost surely, ztz_tzt​ converges to the set of correlated equilibria:

P(∀ε>0 ∃T ∀t>T ∃ψ correlated equilibrium with dist⁡(zt,ψ)<ε)=1.P\Big(\forall\varepsilon>0\ \exists T\ \forall t>T\ \exists\psi\ \text{correlated equilibrium with } \operatorname{dist}(z_t,\psi)<\varepsilon\Big)=1 .P(∀ε>0 ∃T ∀t>T ∃ψ correlated equilibrium with dist(zt​,ψ)<ε)=1.

This is convergence to a set, not to a point; the paper notes that ztz_tzt​ need not converge.

Milestones

They follow the Appendix proof:

  • the PROPOSITION (§3), a deterministic equivalence: lim sup⁡tRti(j,k)≤ε\limsup_t R^i_t(j,k)\le\varepsilonlimsupt​Rti​(j,k)≤ε for all iii and j≠kj\ne kj=k iff ztz_tzt​ converges to the set of correlated ε\varepsilonε-equilibria;
  • positivity of the diagonal of the transition matrix Πt\Pi_tΠt​ of (2.2);
  • Steps M1–M11, with the two LEMMAs used in the proofs of M4 and M7.

The squared distance ρt=∑j≠k[Rt(j,k)]2\rho_t=\sum_{j\ne k}[R_t(j,k)]^2ρt​=∑j=k​[Rt​(j,k)]2 satisfies a block recursion (M1). The cross term is rewritten through the transition probabilities (M2) and compared with a stationary auxiliary process (M3–M5). It then factors into a difference of consecutive matrix powers (M6), which is small (M7). This gives

E[(t+v)2ρt+v∣ht]≤t2ρt+O(v3+tv1/2)(M8).E[(t+v)^2\rho_{t+v}\mid h_t]\le t^2\rho_t+O(v^3+tv^{1/2})\qquad\text{(M8)}.E[(t+v)2ρt+v​∣ht​]≤t2ρt​+O(v3+tv1/2)(M8).

Along tn=⌊n5/3⌋t_n=\lfloor n^{5/3}\rfloortn​=⌊n5/3⌋ this gives ρtn→0\rho_{t_n}\to0ρtn​​→0 a.s. (M9–M10), and then Rt(j,k)→0R_t(j,k)\to0Rt​(j,k)→0 a.s. (M11). A companion item states the strong law for dependent variables that M10 cites.

Significance

The result. The Main Theorem shows that correlated equilibrium is reached by uncoupled play: each player needs only their own payoff function and the history of play, and nothing about the others' payoffs. Steps M10–M11 give more than the goal, namely that every player's internal regrets vanish almost surely. The procedure underlies later work on swap regret, calibrated learning and regret-minimization algorithms for extensive-form games.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper. As far as a search of the platform and the local index shows, it has no machine-checked proof. The mission asks for one, following the paper's eleven steps. Several pieces are general and reusable: a bound on consecutive powers of a stochastic matrix with positive diagonal (LEMMA, proof of M7); a perturbation bound for multi-step transition probabilities (LEMMA, proof of M4); and a strong law of large numbers for martingale differences with general normalizing sequences, which Mathlib does not have in this form.

Difficulty

The natural approach is Blackwell approachability: show that the expected regret vector moves toward the nonpositive orthant in one step. It fails here. The one-step condition holds when a player uses an invariant distribution of Πt\Pi_tΠt​, which is the procedure of Theorem A, but regret matching uses a row of Πt\Pi_tΠt​ instead. The cross term of the one-step recursion therefore does not vanish.

The proof has to work over blocks of vvv periods. Within a block the players' choices are not independent given hth_tht​, because the transition probabilities change with time. The paper therefore compares the play with a process whose transitions are frozen at time ttt. The matrix-power estimate cannot use convergence of Πtw\Pi_t^wΠtw​, since only the diagonal of Πt\Pi_tΠt​ is known to be positive and Πt\Pi_tΠt​ may be reducible or periodic in its off-diagonal structure. The block length must also balance the errors w2/tw^2/tw2/t and w−1/2w^{-1/2}w−1/2, which is why the subsequence tn=⌊n5/3⌋t_n=\lfloor n^{5/3}\rfloortn​=⌊n5/3⌋ appears.

Formalization scope

Players form a Fintype ι, strategies form Fintypes S i, each nonempty, and a profile is a function ∀ i, S i. Δ(Q)\Delta(Q)Δ(Q) is Mathlib's stdSimplex. Time is 0-based: play τ is sτ+1s_{\tau+1}sτ+1​, and a history is a tuple Fin t → ∀ i, S i. Regrets, ztz_tzt​, Πt\Pi_tΠt​ and ρt\rho_tρt​ are deterministic functions of a finite history. Every statement has t≥1t\ge1t≥1, because the Lean value at t=0t=0t=0 is a default. A play of a behaviour profile on a probability space (IsPlay) is a sequence of profile-valued random variables with measurable level sets whose conditional law given any history of positive probability is the product of the players' mixed actions. Statements quantify over every probability space carrying a play, and conditional quantities given hth_tht​ assume P[ht]>0P[h_t]>0P[ht​]>0. The auxiliary s^\hat ss^-process is encoded by its explicit law, a power of the product transition matrix. The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) (footnote 34) is a constant chosen after the game, MMM and μ\muμ and before the initial play, the probability space and the play. Distances on RS\mathbb R^SRS are sup distances.

The hypotheses are exactly footnote 5's: ∣ui∣≤Mi|u^i|\le M^i∣ui∣≤Mi and μ>2Mi(mi−1)\mu>2M^i(m^i-1)μ>2Mi(mi−1), with one μ\muμ for all players. The goal requires every player to follow (2.2). If other players may play arbitrarily the statement is false (§4(d)), so IsPlay constrains all of them. The goal is stated with an existential correlated equilibrium at distance less than ε\varepsilonε, not with a distance to a possibly empty set, so no encoding makes it vacuous.

Disclosed choices:

  • the LEMMA of M7 is stated with a constant that depends only on a lower bound on the diagonal, which is what the proof gives and what M7 uses;
  • the PROPOSITION states lim sup⁡≤ε\limsup\le\varepsilonlimsup≤ε as "for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, eventually ≤ε+δ\le\varepsilon+\delta≤ε+δ";
  • the strong law assumes each XnX_nXn​ is measurable and in L2L^2L2.

Contributions are welcome at every milestone. The two LEMMAs and the strong law are self-contained and independent of the game.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium, Econometrica 68(5) (2000), 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974), 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997), 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • D. Fudenberg and D. K. Levine, Conditional Universal Consistency, Games and Economic Behavior 29 (1999), 104–130. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1998.0705
  • D. Blackwell, An Analog of the Minimax Theorem for Vector Payoffs, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 6 (1956), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1956.6.1
  • M. Loève, Probability Theory II, 4th ed., Springer (1978), Theorem 32.1.E.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantitative Stability in Stochastic Programming: The Method of Probability Metrics 4: Minimal-Risk Stable Portfolios Are Stable in the Stability Index and the Spectral MeasureResearch Paper

Motivation

Stable distributions were proposed as models of asset returns by Mandelbrot and Fama in the 1960s, because empirical returns show heavier tails than the normal law allows; Rachev and Mittnik's monograph Stable Paretian Models in Finance (2000) collects the later development. When the vector ϱ\varrhoϱ of per-share returns of sss assets follows a multivariate α\alphaα-stable law with α∈(1,2)\alpha\in(1,2)α∈(1,2), its distribution is determined by the stability index α\alphaα, a shift m0∈Rsm_0\in\mathbb R^sm0​∈Rs, and a finite Borel measure Γ\GammaΓ on the unit sphere, the spectral measure. The risk of a portfolio is then measured by the scale parameter of the return, and choosing an efficient portfolio becomes a deterministic optimization problem in (α,Γ)(\alpha,\Gamma)(α,Γ).

In practice neither α\alphaα nor Γ\GammaΓ is known: both are estimated from data. Whether the optimal portfolio is robust to estimation error is therefore a practical question. Section 5 of Rachev and Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics (Math. Oper. Res. 27(4), 2002; this mission follows the authors' preprint), answers it with an explicit modulus, as an application of the paper's general stability theory for stochastic programs under perturbations of the underlying probability measure.

Setting

Fix s∈Ns\in\mathbb Ns∈N and equip Rs\mathbb R^sRs with the Euclidean scalar product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥.

  • Σs={ξ∈Rs:⟨ξ,ξ⟩=1}\Sigma^s=\{\xi\in\mathbb R^s:\langle\xi,\xi\rangle=1\}Σs={ξ∈Rs:⟨ξ,ξ⟩=1} is the unit sphere, and P(Σs)\mathcal P(\Sigma^s)P(Σs) is the set of Borel probability measures on it (normalized spectral measures).
  • X={x∈R+s:∑i=1sxi=1}X=\{x\in\mathbb R^s_+:\sum_{i=1}^s x_i=1\}X={x∈R+s​:∑i=1s​xi​=1} is the set of portfolios: xix_ixi​ is the proportion of shares held in asset iii.
  • For α∈(1,2)\alpha\in(1,2)α∈(1,2) and Γ∈P(Σs)\Gamma\in\mathcal P(\Sigma^s)Γ∈P(Σs), the risk of xxx is
rα,Γ(x)=∫Σs∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣α Γ(dξ).r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x)=\int_{\Sigma^s}|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^\alpha\,\Gamma(d\xi).rα,Γ​(x)=∫Σs​∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣αΓ(dξ).
  • Problem (22) is min⁡{rα,Γ(x):x∈X}\min\{r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x):x\in X\}min{rα,Γ​(x):x∈X}, with optimal value v(α,Γ)v(\alpha,\Gamma)v(α,Γ) and solution set S(α,Γ)S(\alpha,\Gamma)S(α,Γ).
  • The dual Lipschitz metric ζ1\zeta_1ζ1​ (the Fortet–Mourier metric of order 111) on P(Σs)\mathcal P(\Sigma^s)P(Σs) is
ζ1(Γ,Γ~)=sup⁡{∣∫Σsf dΓ−∫Σsf dΓ~∣:f:Σs→R, ∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~)∣≤∥ξ−ξ~∥}.\zeta_1(\Gamma,\tilde\Gamma)=\sup\Big\{\Big|\int_{\Sigma^s}f\,d\Gamma-\int_{\Sigma^s}f\,d\tilde\Gamma\Big|: f:\Sigma^s\to\mathbb R,\ |f(\xi)-f(\tilde\xi)|\le\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|\Big\}.ζ1​(Γ,Γ~)=sup{​∫Σs​fdΓ−∫Σs​fdΓ~​:f:Σs→R, ∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~​)∣≤∥ξ−ξ~​∥}.
  • The growth function of (22) is ψ(τ)=min⁡{rα,Γ(x)−v(α,Γ):d(x,S(α,Γ))≥τ, x∈X}\psi(\tau)=\min\{r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x)-v(\alpha,\Gamma): d(x,S(\alpha,\Gamma))\ge\tau,\ x\in X\}ψ(τ)=min{rα,Γ​(x)−v(α,Γ):d(x,S(α,Γ))≥τ, x∈X} for τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0, its generalized inverse is ψ−1(t)=sup⁡{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}\psi^{-1}(t)=\sup\{\tau\ge0:\psi(\tau)\le t\}ψ−1(t)=sup{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}, and the stability modulus is Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η)\Psi(\eta)=\eta+\psi^{-1}(2\eta)Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η).
  • Γ\GammaΓ is nonsingular if ∫Σs∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ)=0\int_{\Sigma^s}|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^2\Gamma(d\xi)=0∫Σs​∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ)=0 implies x=0x=0x=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2, first assertion (p. 25)

For each (α,Γ)∈(1,2)×P(Σs)(\alpha,\Gamma)\in(1,2)\times\mathcal P(\Sigma^s)(α,Γ)∈(1,2)×P(Σs) there is δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that

sup⁡x∈S(α~,Γ~)d(x,S(α,Γ))≤Ψ(α ζ1(Γ,Γ~)+e−1∣α−α~∣)\sup_{x\in S(\tilde\alpha,\tilde\Gamma)}d\big(x,S(\alpha,\Gamma)\big)\le\Psi\big(\alpha\,\zeta_1(\Gamma,\tilde\Gamma)+e^{-1}|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|\big)x∈S(α~,Γ~)sup​d(x,S(α,Γ))≤Ψ(αζ1​(Γ,Γ~)+e−1∣α−α~∣)

whenever (α~,Γ~)∈(1,2)×P(Σs)(\tilde\alpha,\tilde\Gamma)\in(1,2)\times\mathcal P(\Sigma^s)(α~,Γ~)∈(1,2)×P(Σs) and ζ1(Γ,Γ~)+∣α−α~∣<δ\zeta_1(\Gamma,\tilde\Gamma)+|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|<\deltaζ1​(Γ,Γ~)+∣α−α~∣<δ. The modulus Ψ\PsiΨ is not fixed: it is whatever the growth of the unperturbed problem gives.

Companion: Theorem 5.2, "Moreover" (p. 25)

If Γ\GammaΓ is nonsingular, then (22) has a unique solution and Ψ(η)≤Cη1/2\Psi(\eta)\le C\eta^{1/2}Ψ(η)≤Cη1/2 for some C>0C>0C>0 and all sufficiently small η≥0\eta\ge0η≥0.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5.1, first assertion (p. 24): f0(ξ,x)=∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣αf_0(\xi,x)=|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^\alphaf0​(ξ,x)=∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣α is convex in xxx, and ∣f0(ξ,x)−f0(ξ~,x~)∣≤α(∥ξ−ξ~∥+∥x−x~∥)|f_0(\xi,x)-f_0(\tilde\xi,\tilde x)|\le\alpha(\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|+\|x-\tilde x\|)∣f0​(ξ,x)−f0​(ξ~​,x~)∣≤α(∥ξ−ξ~​∥+∥x−x~∥) on Σs×X\Sigma^s\times XΣs×X.
  2. Lemma 5.1, second assertion (p. 24): S(α,Γ)≠∅S(\alpha,\Gamma)\ne\emptysetS(α,Γ)=∅, and 14α(α−1)∫Σs∣⟨x−x∗,z⟩∣2Γ(dz)≤rα,Γ(x)−v(α,Γ)\frac14\alpha(\alpha-1)\int_{\Sigma^s}|\langle x-x_*,z\rangle|^2\Gamma(dz)\le r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x)-v(\alpha,\Gamma)41​α(α−1)∫Σs​∣⟨x−x∗​,z⟩∣2Γ(dz)≤rα,Γ​(x)−v(α,Γ) for all x∈Xx\in Xx∈X and some x∗∈S(α,Γ)x_*\in S(\alpha,\Gamma)x∗​∈S(α,Γ).
  3. Proof of Theorem 5.2 (p. 25): sup⁡t∈[−1,1]∣∣t∣α−∣t∣α~∣≤e−1∣α−α~∣\sup_{t\in[-1,1]}\big||t|^\alpha-|t|^{\tilde\alpha}\big|\le e^{-1}|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|supt∈[−1,1]​​∣t∣α−∣t∣α~​≤e−1∣α−α~∣.
  4. Proof of Theorem 5.2 (p. 25): ∣rα,Γ(x)−rα~,Γ~(x)∣≤αζ1(Γ,Γ~)+e−1∣α−α~∣|r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x)-r_{\tilde\alpha,\tilde\Gamma}(x)|\le\alpha\zeta_1(\Gamma,\tilde\Gamma)+e^{-1}|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|∣rα,Γ​(x)−rα~,Γ~​(x)∣≤αζ1​(Γ,Γ~)+e−1∣α−α~∣ for x∈Xx\in Xx∈X.
  5. Proof of Theorem 5.2 (p. 25): for nonsingular Γ\GammaΓ, c∥x∥2≤∫Σs∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ)c\|x\|^2\le\int_{\Sigma^s}|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^2\Gamma(d\xi)c∥x∥2≤∫Σs​∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ) for some c=c(s,Γ)>0c=c(s,\Gamma)>0c=c(s,Γ)>0.
  6. Proof of Theorem 5.2 (p. 25): for nonsingular Γ\GammaΓ, (22) has a unique solution x∗x_*x∗​ and 14cα(α−1)∥x−x∗∥2≤rα,Γ(x)−v(α,Γ)\frac14c\alpha(\alpha-1)\|x-x_*\|^2\le r_{\alpha,\Gamma}(x)-v(\alpha,\Gamma)41​cα(α−1)∥x−x∗​∥2≤rα,Γ​(x)−v(α,Γ) on XXX.

Significance

The theorem bounds how far the optimal portfolios can move when the stability index and the spectral measure are both perturbed, with a modulus computed from the unperturbed problem alone. Combined with the companion, the efficient portfolio of a nonsingular spectral measure is unique and moves by at most O((ζ1(Γ,Γ~)+∣α−α~∣)1/2)O\big((\zeta_1(\Gamma,\tilde\Gamma)+|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|)^{1/2}\big)O((ζ1​(Γ,Γ~)+∣α−α~∣)1/2). Since ζ1\zeta_1ζ1​ metrizes weak convergence on the compact sphere, any consistent estimator of Γ\GammaΓ in the weak topology, together with a consistent estimator of α\alphaα, yields consistent estimates of the optimal portfolio, and convergence rates for ζ1\zeta_1ζ1​ translate into rates for the portfolio. The paper notes (Example 5.3) that spectral measures of linear transformations of independent stable variables with a full-rank matrix are nonsingular, so the Hölder case covers the discrete spectral measures used in practice.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge none of it is machine-checked: Mathlib has strong convexity and the real power function but no stability theory of stochastic programs and no Fortet–Mourier metrics. The mission produces a checked proof of the result and a reusable formal treatment of the growth-function modulus Ψ\PsiΨ in a concrete, fully explicit instance.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the optimal values of the two problems and concludes that a perturbed minimizer is nearly optimal for the unperturbed problem. Turning near-optimality into a distance bound requires the growth function ψ\psiψ and its generalized inverse; ψ\psiψ is defined by an infimum over a set that may be empty, and ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 by a supremum that may be infinite, so this step has to be handled in extended arithmetic with care. A second difficulty is the ζ1\zeta_1ζ1​ term: the map ξ↦∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣α\xi\mapsto|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^\alphaξ↦∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣α must be shown to be α\alphaα-Lipschitz on the sphere uniformly over x∈Xx\in Xx∈X, which uses ∥x∥≤1\|x\|\le1∥x∥≤1 on the simplex. The change of exponent from α\alphaα to α~\tilde\alphaα~ is controlled by a sharp calculus inequality whose constant e−1e^{-1}e−1 needs α,α~≥1\alpha,\tilde\alpha\ge1α,α~≥1. In the nonsingular case, the quadratic form ∫∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ)\int|\langle x,\xi\rangle|^2\Gamma(d\xi)∫∣⟨x,ξ⟩∣2Γ(dξ) must be shown to dominate c∥x∥2c\|x\|^2c∥x∥2, a compactness argument on the unit sphere of Rs\mathbb R^sRs.

Formalization scope

  • Rs\mathbb R^sRs is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin s) with coordinates indexed 0,…,s−10,\dots,s-10,…,s−1. The paper says "the (Euclidean) scalar product", so Euclidean norms are the paper's own.
  • Σs\Sigma^sΣs is Metric.sphere 0 1. A spectral measure is a probability measure on Rs\mathbb R^sRs with Γ((Σs)c)=0\Gamma((\Sigma^s)^c)=0Γ((Σs)c)=0, and every integral is a set integral over Σs\Sigma^sΣs. For s=0s=0s=0 the sphere is empty, no spectral measure exists, and every statement is vacuous, as in the paper.
  • The standing assumption α∈(1,2)\alpha\in(1,2)α∈(1,2) of Section 5 is a hypothesis of every statement. The α\alphaα-stable law itself is not formalized: the characteristic function on p. 23 only motivates (22), and the mission captures problem (22) exactly.
  • ζ1\zeta_1ζ1​ is a supremum in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over functions on Rs\mathbb R^sRs that are 111-Lipschitz on Σs\Sigma^sΣs, integrated over Σs\Sigma^sΣs only. Such functions are continuous on the compact sphere, so no integral can collapse to a default value. For probability measures, ζ1≤2\zeta_1\le2ζ1​≤2.
  • vvv is the real infimum of rα,Γr_{\alpha,\Gamma}rα,Γ​ over XXX. SSS is the set of minimizers. The paper's "min" in ψ\psiψ is read as an infimum in the extended reals, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when no feasible point is at distance at least τ\tauτ. Distances to sets are extended distances (Metric.infEDist, +∞+\infty+∞ to the empty set), and ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 and Ψ\PsiΨ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Ruled out: a real-valued supremum for ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 (which would be 000 on unbounded sets), a real distance (which is 000 to the empty set), and test functions integrated over all of Rs\mathbb R^sRs (whose off-sphere values could make an integral undefined). Any of these would make the goal trivially true.
  • "Sufficiently small η\etaη" is read as "all η∈[0,η0]\eta\in[0,\eta_0]η∈[0,η0​] for some η0>0\eta_0>0η0​>0". Milestone 6 holds for every constant c>0c>0c>0 of the norm bound of milestone 5, fixed before α\alphaα, as c=c(s,Γ)c=c(s,\Gamma)c=c(s,Γ) on the page.

Welcome contributions: the inequality ∣∣t∣α−∣t∣α~∣≤e−1∣α−α~∣\big||t|^\alpha-|t|^{\tilde\alpha}\big|\le e^{-1}|\alpha-\tilde\alpha|​∣t∣α−∣t∣α~​≤e−1∣α−α~∣ on [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], strong convexity of ∣t∣α|t|^\alpha∣t∣α on [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1], and a general lemma converting a growth function and a uniform objective perturbation into a distance bound; the last is reusable for every stability result of the paper.

Selected references

  • S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Mathematics of Operations Research 27(4) (2002) 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304 (preprint at edoc.hu-berlin.de, followed here).
  • S. T. Rachev, S. Mittnik, Stable Paretian Models in Finance, Wiley, Chichester, 2000 (reference [33] of the paper).
  • G. Samorodnitsky, M. S. Taqqu, Stable Non-Gaussian Random Processes, Chapman & Hall, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203738818
  • B. Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, Journal of Business 36(4) (1963) 394–419. https://doi.org/10.1086/294632
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Coordinate Gradient Descent Method for Nonsmooth Separable Minimization 3: The Local Lipschitzian Error Bound Holds for Polyhedral P with Quadratic or Composite f, and for Strongly Convex fResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in statistics, signal processing and machine learning minimize the sum of a smooth function and a convex but nonsmooth one: ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-regularized least squares (the Lasso), bound-constrained problems, and group-sparse regression are standard examples. Tseng and Yun (Math. Program. Ser. B 117 (2009) 387–423) proposed the coordinate gradient descent (CGD) method for this class and proved that it converges linearly under a local Lipschitzian error bound, Assumption 2(a) of their paper. An assumption is only as useful as the list of problems known to satisfy it. Section 6 of the paper supplies that list, and this mission formalizes it.

Error bounds of this kind have a history in smooth constrained optimization. Luo and Tseng proved them for quadratic objectives over polyhedral sets (Luo–Tseng 1992, SIAM J. Optim.), for strongly convex functions composed with a linear map (Luo–Tseng 1992, SIAM J. Control Optim.), and for dual functionals of linearly constrained strictly convex programs (Luo–Tseng 1993, Math. Oper. Res.), and used them to derive linear rates for feasible descent methods (Luo–Tseng 1993, Ann. Oper. Res.). Tseng and Yun carry these results over to the nonsmooth problem (1) by reformulating it as a smooth problem over the epigraph of the nonsmooth part.

Setting

Throughout, Rn\mathbb R^nRn carries the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. The problem is

min⁡x  Fc(x)=f(x)+cP(x),(1)\min_x\; F_c(x) = f(x) + cP(x), \qquad (1)xmin​Fc​(x)=f(x)+cP(x),(1)

where c>0c > 0c>0, P:Rn→(−∞,∞]P:\mathbb R^n \to (-\infty,\infty]P:Rn→(−∞,∞] is proper, convex and lower semicontinuous with effective domain dom⁡P={x∣P(x)<∞}\operatorname{dom}P = \{x \mid P(x) < \infty\}domP={x∣P(x)<∞}, and fff is continuously differentiable on an open set containing dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP.

The residual at x∈dom⁡Px \in \operatorname{dom}Px∈domP is

dI(x)=arg⁡min⁡d{∇f(x)⊤d+12∥d∥2+cP(x+d)},d_I(x) = \arg\min_d \Big\{\nabla f(x)^\top d + \tfrac12\|d\|^2 + cP(x+d)\Big\},dI​(x)=argdmin​{∇f(x)⊤d+21​∥d∥2+cP(x+d)},

the unique minimizer of a strongly convex function. A point x∈dom⁡Px \in \operatorname{dom}Px∈domP is stationary if the one-sided directional derivative satisfies Fc′(x;d)≥0F_c'(x;d) \ge 0Fc′​(x;d)≥0 for every direction ddd; Xˉ\bar XXˉ denotes the set of stationary points and dist⁡(x,Xˉ)\operatorname{dist}(x,\bar X)dist(x,Xˉ) the distance to it. A point is stationary exactly when its residual vanishes.

Assumption 2(a) asks that Xˉ≠∅\bar X \neq \emptysetXˉ=∅ and that for every level ζ\zetaζ there be constants τ,ϵ>0\tau, \epsilon > 0τ,ϵ>0 with

dist⁡(x,Xˉ)≤τ∥dI(x)∥whenever Fc(x)≤ζ, ∥dI(x)∥≤ϵ.\operatorname{dist}(x,\bar X) \le \tau\|d_I(x)\| \quad\text{whenever } F_c(x) \le \zeta,\ \|d_I(x)\| \le \epsilon.dist(x,Xˉ)≤τ∥dI​(x)∥whenever Fc​(x)≤ζ, ∥dI​(x)∥≤ϵ.

Writing epi⁡P={(x,ξ)∣P(x)≤ξ}\operatorname{epi}P = \{(x,\xi) \mid P(x) \le \xi\}epiP={(x,ξ)∣P(x)≤ξ}, problem (1) is equivalent to the smooth problem min⁡{f(x)+cξ∣(x,ξ)∈epi⁡P}\min\{f(x) + c\xi \mid (x,\xi) \in \operatorname{epi}P\}min{f(x)+cξ∣(x,ξ)∈epiP} (41). Its projection residual at (x,ξ)(x,\xi)(x,ξ) is the optimal solution (d~,δ~)(\tilde d,\tilde\delta)(d~,δ~) of

min⁡(d,δ){∇f(x)⊤d+12∥d∥2+12δ2+cδ  ∣  (x+d,ξ+δ)∈epi⁡P}.(42)\min_{(d,\delta)}\Big\{\nabla f(x)^\top d + \tfrac12\|d\|^2 + \tfrac12\delta^2 + c\delta \;\Big|\; (x+d,\xi+\delta) \in \operatorname{epi}P\Big\}. \qquad (42)(d,δ)min​{∇f(x)⊤d+21​∥d∥2+21​δ2+cδ​(x+d,ξ+δ)∈epiP}.(42)

PPP is polyhedral if epi⁡P\operatorname{epi}PepiP is the solution set of finitely many linear inequalities in (x,ξ)(x,\xi)(x,ξ); fff is quadratic if f(x)=12x⊤Ax+b⊤x+c0f(x) = \tfrac12 x^\top Ax + b^\top x + c_0f(x)=21​x⊤Ax+b⊤x+c0​ with AAA symmetric, not necessarily positive semidefinite. The four problem classes are:

  • C1: fff quadratic, PPP polyhedral;
  • C2: f(x)=g(Ex)+q⊤xf(x) = g(Ex) + q^\top xf(x)=g(Ex)+q⊤x with ggg strongly convex and differentiable on Rm\mathbb R^mRm, ∇g\nabla g∇g Lipschitz, PPP polyhedral;
  • C3: f(x)=max⁡y∈Y{(Ex)⊤y−g(y)}+q⊤xf(x) = \max_{y\in Y}\{(Ex)^\top y - g(y)\} + q^\top xf(x)=maxy∈Y​{(Ex)⊤y−g(y)}+q⊤x with YYY polyhedral and ggg as in C2, PPP polyhedral;
  • C4: fff strongly convex with ∇f\nabla f∇f Lipschitz on dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP (condition (22)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 412)

(Xˉ≠∅ ∧ (C1∨C2∨C3)) ∨ C4  ⟹  Assumption 2(a).\Big(\bar X \neq \emptyset \ \wedge\ (\mathrm{C1} \vee \mathrm{C2} \vee \mathrm{C3})\Big) \ \vee\ \mathrm{C4} \;\Longrightarrow\; \text{Assumption 2(a)}.(Xˉ=∅ ∧ (C1∨C2∨C3)) ∨ C4⟹Assumption 2(a).

Under C4, nonemptiness of Xˉ\bar XXˉ is part of the conclusion. The constants τ,ϵ\tau, \epsilonτ,ϵ are existential, so the goal does not depend on any particular estimate.

Milestone: Lemma 6 (p. 410)

If PPP is Lipschitz on dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP with constant KKK, there is κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 depending only on KKK with

∥(d~,δ~)∥≤κ ∥dI(x)∥(x∈dom⁡P, ξ=P(x)).\|(\tilde d,\tilde\delta)\| \le \kappa\,\|d_I(x)\| \qquad (x \in \operatorname{dom}P,\ \xi = P(x)).∥(d~,δ~)∥≤κ∥dI​(x)∥(x∈domP, ξ=P(x)).

Milestone: Lemma 7 (p. 411)

If Xˉ≠∅\bar X \neq \emptysetXˉ=∅ and C1, C2 or C3 holds, then for every ζ\zetaζ there are τ′,ϵ′>0\tau', \epsilon' > 0τ′,ϵ′>0 with

dist⁡(x,Xˉ)≤τ′∥(d~,δ~)∥whenever Fc(x)≤ζ, ∥(d~,δ~)∥≤ϵ′,(44)\operatorname{dist}(x,\bar X) \le \tau'\|(\tilde d,\tilde\delta)\| \quad\text{whenever } F_c(x) \le \zeta,\ \|(\tilde d,\tilde\delta)\| \le \epsilon', \qquad (44)dist(x,Xˉ)≤τ′∥(d~,δ~)∥whenever Fc​(x)≤ζ, ∥(d~,δ~)∥≤ϵ′,(44)

where (d~,δ~)(\tilde d,\tilde\delta)(d~,δ~) solves (42) with ξ=P(x)\xi = P(x)ξ=P(x).

A further item, not a milestone, states the remark after Assumption 2 (p. 404) that Assumption 2(b) (stationary points with different objective values are uniformly separated) holds whenever fff is convex.

Significance

Theorem 4 is what makes the linear convergence theorem of the paper (Theorem 2, the subject of the second mission of this series) applicable. Through C1 it covers every problem with a quadratic fff and a polyhedral PPP, including the Lasso and ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-regularized or bound-constrained quadratic programs, without convexity of fff. Through C2 it covers losses of the form g(Ex)g(Ex)g(Ex) with ggg strongly convex, such as least squares 12∥Ex−b∥2\tfrac12\|Ex - b\|^221​∥Ex−b∥2, where fff itself is not strongly convex because EEE may have a nontrivial kernel. These error bounds became a standard tool for linear rates of proximal and coordinate methods without strong convexity.

The paper's result is proved, but Lemma 7 is proved by citation: it applies three error bounds of Luo and Tseng to the reformulation (41). A complete formalization therefore requires those error bounds for smooth problems over polyhedral sets, which are not in Mathlib. To our knowledge none of the results of this mission has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

Lemma 6 and the C4 case of Theorem 4 are short inequality arguments. The difficulty is Lemma 7. The natural first idea, proving an error bound from strong convexity, fails for C1–C3: fff may be nonconvex (C1) or have a degenerate Hessian (C2, C3), and the objective f(x)+cξf(x) + c\xif(x)+cξ of (41) is never strongly convex in (x,ξ)(x,\xi)(x,ξ). What replaces strong convexity is the polyhedral structure of epi⁡P\operatorname{epi}PepiP, and the cited Luo–Tseng error bounds that exploit it are substantial results in their own right, each of which has to be established for a projection residual over a general polyhedron in Rn+1\mathbb R^{n+1}Rn+1.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with indices 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1. PPP is the pair (D,P)(D, P)(D,P), its effective domain and its finite values there, with "proper, convex, lsc" given by the published ProxNewton.Inexact.IsProperClosedConvex. The value +∞+\infty+∞ is never computed: every statement quantifies over x∈Dx \in Dx∈D, and membership in epi⁡P\operatorname{epi}PepiP is x + d ∈ D ∧ P (x + d) ≤ ξ + δ. dI(x)d_I(x)dI​(x) is a chosen minimizer of its subproblem, which at x∈Dx \in Dx∈D is the paper's unique one. The solutions of (42) enter through a predicate, and every bound is asserted for every optimal solution. Stationarity is the liminf form of Fc′(x;d)≥0F_c'(x;d) \ge 0Fc′​(x;d)≥0. dist⁡\operatorname{dist}dist is the infimum distance. Assumption 2(a) quantifies over every real ζ\zetaζ, which agrees with the paper's "ζ≥min⁡Fc\zeta \ge \min F_cζ≥minFc​" because the condition is vacuous below inf⁡Fc\inf F_cinfFc​. In Lemma 6 the constant κ\kappaκ is quantified before the dimension and the data, so it depends on the Lipschitz constant only.

Explicit choices relative to the printed text:

  • In C4, strong convexity and (22) are required on dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP only, since fff is only assumed smooth near dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP. This hypothesis is weaker than the paper's, so the formal theorem is at least as strong.
  • In C2 and C3, EEE is a continuous linear map Rn→Rm\mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R^mRn→Rm (equivalently an m×nm \times nm×n matrix). Strong convexity has a positive modulus and ∇g\nabla g∇g is globally Lipschitz.
  • In C3, the maximum must be attained at every xxx, which forces Y≠∅Y \neq \emptysetY=∅, as the paper's formula presumes.
  • Assumption 2(b) for convex fff is stated with convexity on dom⁡P\operatorname{dom}PdomP.

A polyhedrality notion that admits only affine or constant PPP, an Assumption 2(a) whose constants are chosen after xxx, and a Lemma 7 whose residual is dI(x)d_I(x)dI​(x) instead of the solution of (42) would all trivialize or change the statements. The encoding rules out each of them: polyhedral means a finite system of linear inequalities in (x,ξ)(x,\xi)(x,ξ), the constants precede xxx, and Lemma 7 is stated for (42).

Welcome contributions: proofs of Lemma 6 and of the C4 case; Lipschitz continuity of polyhedral functions on their domain (Rockafellar–Wets, Example 9.35); the Luo–Tseng error bounds for affine variational inequalities and for composite strongly convex objectives over polyhedra, which can be reused well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • P. Tseng, S. Yun, A coordinate gradient descent method for nonsmooth separable minimization, Math. Program. Ser. B 117 (2009) 387–423. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0170-0
  • Z.-Q. Luo, P. Tseng, Error bounds and the convergence analysis of matrix splitting algorithms for the affine variational inequality problem, SIAM J. Optim. 2 (1992) 43–54. https://doi.org/10.1137/0802004
  • Z.-Q. Luo, P. Tseng, On the linear convergence of descent methods for convex essentially smooth minimization, SIAM J. Control Optim. 30 (1992) 408–425. https://doi.org/10.1137/0330025
  • Z.-Q. Luo, P. Tseng, On the convergence rate of dual ascent methods for linearly constrained convex minimization, Math. Oper. Res. 18 (1993) 846–867. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.4.846
  • Z.-Q. Luo, P. Tseng, Error bounds and convergence analysis of feasible descent methods: a general approach, Ann. Oper. Res. 46 (1993) 157–178. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02096261
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Backward-Forward Stochastic Differential Equations 4: A Nonsingular Linear Backward-Forward System with Lipschitz Constant 1 Has No Solution on the Horizon T = π/2Research Paper

Motivation

A backward stochastic equation determines its current value from a conditional expectation of future values. A forward equation determines its current value from past values. Coupling the two makes existence depend on more than integrability of the data: the feedback between the past and future can prevent a solution. Antonelli's 1993 paper studies this interaction in an L1L^1L1 space for equations driven by bounded variation processes, motivated in part by recursively defined stochastic utility in finance (Antonelli 1993, pp. 777–778).

The paper first gives an existence and uniqueness condition for a coupled system. It then tests the size of that condition with two examples. The first uses a singular coefficient matrix; the second, targeted here, uses a nonsingular linear coupling. This distinction matters because the failure of existence in the first example could otherwise be attributed to the singular matrix. The second example places the obstruction at a particular time horizon while retaining a linear map with Lipschitz constant one (Antonelli 1993, pp. 791–792).

Setting

Fix a complete probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with a right-continuous filtration (Ft)0≤t≤T(\mathcal F_t)_{0\le t\le T}(Ft​)0≤t≤T​, where T>0T>0T>0. At time ttt, Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ describes the information available. Let J0J_0J0​ be an integrable, strictly positive, F0\mathcal F_0F0​-measurable random variable. Let YYY be a strictly positive, bounded, FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable random variable. Both positivity statements are almost sure.

The unknowns are real-valued stochastic processes UtU_tUt​ and VtV_tVt​. The forward equation starts from J0J_0J0​ and accumulates VVV:

Ut=J0+∫0tVs ds.U_t=J_0+\int_0^t V_s\,ds.Ut​=J0​+∫0t​Vs​ds.

The backward equation sets VtV_tVt​ equal to the conditional mean, given current information, of a future integral and the terminal input:

Vt=E ⁣[∫tTUs ds+Y∣Ft].V_t=\mathbb E\!\left[\int_t^T U_s\,ds+Y\mid\mathcal F_t\right].Vt​=E[∫tT​Us​ds+Y∣Ft​].

These are equations (3.10)–(3.11) of the paper. Their coefficient functions are f(u,v)=vf(u,v)=vf(u,v)=v and g(u,v)=ug(u,v)=ug(u,v)=u, each with Lipschitz constant 111 for the paper's sum norm on pairs. The associated linear coefficient matrix is nonsingular. A solution is sought in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) for each component: the expected time integral of its absolute value is finite, and the equations hold in that space. This is the same integrability regime used to state the coupled system in §3 (Antonelli 1993, p. 785).

The terminal value UTU_TUT​ is the random variable J0+∫0TVs dsJ_0+\int_0^T V_s\,dsJ0​+∫0T​Vs​ds. Conditional-expectation processes in the intermediate identities are denoted Mt=E[UT∣Ft]M_t=\mathbb E[U_T\mid\mathcal F_t]Mt​=E[UT​∣Ft​] and Ytc=E[Y∣Ft]Y_t^{\mathrm c}=\mathbb E[Y\mid\mathcal F_t]Ytc​=E[Y∣Ft​]. Jointly measurable versions are used when these processes appear inside time integrals.

Formalization targets

Conditional-expectation identity

For any positive horizon, the paper derives an equation for VVV in terms of UTU_TUT​, a weighted future integral of VVV, and YYY. With the sign consistent with the preceding display, the identity is

Vt=(T−t)Mt−E ⁣[∫tT(r−t)Vr dr∣Ft]+Ytc.V_t=(T-t)M_t-\mathbb E\!\left[\int_t^T(r-t)V_r\,dr\mid\mathcal F_t\right]+Y_t^{\mathrm c}.Vt​=(T−t)Mt​−E[∫tT​(r−t)Vr​dr∣Ft​]+Ytc​.

The printed equation (3.12) places YYY inside the negative conditional expectation. That is inconsistent with both the preceding display and the next closed form; the formal statement uses the consistent sign and records the discrepancy (Antonelli 1993, p. 792).

Closed forms and mean identity

The remaining intermediate targets are the paper's closed form for VVV, equation (3.13) for UUU, and the terminal-mean relation:

Vt=Mtsin⁡(T−t)+Ytccos⁡(T−t),V_t=M_t\sin(T-t)+Y_t^{\mathrm c}\cos(T-t),Vt​=Mt​sin(T−t)+Ytc​cos(T−t), Ut=J0+∫0tMssin⁡(T−s) ds+∫0tYsccos⁡(T−s) ds,U_t=J_0+\int_0^t M_s\sin(T-s)\,ds+\int_0^t Y_s^{\mathrm c}\cos(T-s)\,ds,Ut​=J0​+∫0t​Ms​sin(T−s)ds+∫0t​Ysc​cos(T−s)ds, E[UT]cos⁡T=E[J0]+E[Y]sin⁡T.\mathbb E[U_T]\cos T=\mathbb E[J_0]+\mathbb E[Y]\sin T.E[UT​]cosT=E[J0​]+E[Y]sinT.

The last identity is stated without division, so it also has meaning when cos⁡T=0\cos T=0cosT=0. These identities give the milestones in the order they occur on p. 792.

Main result

At the specific horizon T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2, the coupled equations have no L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) solution:

T=π2⟹∄ (U,V)∈L1(dt⊗dP)2 satisfying (3.10)–(3.11).T=\frac{\pi}{2}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \nexists\,(U,V)\in L^1(dt\otimes dP)^2\text{ satisfying (3.10)–(3.11)}.T=2π​⟹∄(U,V)∈L1(dt⊗dP)2 satisfying (3.10)–(3.11).

Strict positivity makes the right side of the mean identity positive, while its left side vanishes. The statement is a nonexistence result for the same broad solution class as the paper, rather than a claim about a narrower pathwise class.

Significance

Example 2 shows that a nonsingular coupling can still lose existence at a finite horizon. Thus the obstruction exhibited by the earlier singular example is not explained by singularity alone. The example also marks a limitation of replacing the paper's smallness condition with the assumption that the Lipschitz constant is merely finite. At T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2 and k=1k=1k=1, the product kTkTkT exceeds one, as the paper notes (Antonelli 1993, p. 791).

A completed formalization would connect conditional expectations, jointly measurable time-indexed versions, and integration in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) in a reusable Lean development. The paper proves the mathematical result. This mission asks for machine-checked statements and proofs of its intermediate identities and nonexistence conclusion; it does not claim that the result is an open mathematical problem.

Difficulty

The main challenge is that the equations are equalities of integrable processes, not pointwise equalities at every time and outcome. A value assigned to UTU_TUT​ by an arbitrary representative of an L1L^1L1 class is uncontrolled, so the terminal value must instead be reconstructed from the forward integral. Conditional expectations are defined only up to almost-sure equality at each time, yet the subsequent formulas integrate their time-indexed versions. This requires a jointly measurable version and careful movement between almost-sure statements at fixed times and dt⊗dPdt\otimes dPdt⊗dP statements.

There is also a printed sign inconsistency in (3.12). Propagating that sign would contradict the later sine-cosine formula. Finally, the paper's quotient formula for E[UT]\mathbb E[U_T]E[UT​] cannot be used at T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2, because its denominator vanishes there. The undivided mean identity is the meaningful target at the critical horizon.

Formalization scope

Time is represented by R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and all integrals over time use (s,t](s,t](s,t]; for Lebesgue measure this agrees with the paper's ordinary time integrals. The ambient probability measure is a probability measure, and the filtration satisfies right continuity and completion at time zero. The two unknown processes are jointly measurable and have finite lower-integral L1L^1L1 norms. A solution uses a jointly measurable version of the conditional-expectation process, with each conditional-expectation argument explicitly integrable. The terminal UTU_TUT​ is defined from J0J_0J0​ and VVV, independently of an arbitrary endpoint value of UUU.

The source calls J0J_0J0​ and YYY positive; the formalization reads this as strict positivity almost surely, because allowing both to vanish admits the zero solution. J0J_0J0​ is integrable as required by the standing assumption on JJJ in §3; YYY remains bounded as Example 2 states. The four intermediate identities are stated for general T>0T>0T>0, while only the main result fixes T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2. Their process equalities hold in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP), and the terminal identity holds almost surely. This keeps the target from becoming true simply because endpoint representatives can be chosen freely.

The needed development includes product measurability, conditional expectation, Fubini's theorem, time integration, and the trigonometric identities in the closed form. The L1L^1L1 and version definitions can be reused for other coupled systems with deterministic time integrators. Contributions that establish the intermediate identities under the stated integrability assumptions, or develop the corresponding measurable-version tools, support the goal directly.

Selected references

  • Fabio Antonelli, Backward-forward stochastic differential equations, Annals of Applied Probability 3(3), 777–793, 1993. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1177005363.
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A D.C. Optimization Algorithm for Solving the Trust-Region Subproblem IV: A Kuhn–Tucker Point with λ* + λ₁ < 0 Gives an Explicit Feasible Restart Point x̄ with f(x̄) < f(x*)Research Paper

Motivation

The trust-region subproblem — minimizing a quadratic, possibly nonconvex, over a Euclidean ball — is the inner step of every trust-region method for nonlinear optimization, and it also appears in regularized least squares and in the analysis of quadratic constraints. It is one of the few nonconvex problems whose global minimizers are characterized exactly: by the classical results of Moré and Sorensen (1983) and Gay (1981), a feasible point is a global solution if and only if it satisfies the Kuhn–Tucker conditions with a multiplier that makes the shifted matrix positive semidefinite.

Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An (SIAM J. Optim. 8 (1998)) solve the problem with DCA, a descent method for difference-of-convex programs. DCA converges to Kuhn–Tucker points, and a Kuhn–Tucker point need not be a global solution. Section 4.2 of the paper closes this gap: it tests a Kuhn–Tucker point for global optimality with one eigenvalue computation, and when the test fails it writes down, explicitly, a feasible point with strictly smaller objective value from which DCA can be restarted. The resulting algorithm GDCA alternates DCA runs and restarts. This mission formalizes that restart construction.

Setting

Let AAA be a real symmetric n×nn\times nn×n matrix, b∈Rnb\in\mathbb R^nb∈Rn and r>0r>0r>0. Write ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ for the Euclidean inner product and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ for its norm. The trust-region subproblem (Q1) is

min⁡{ f(x)=12⟨x,Ax⟩+⟨b,x⟩  :  ∥x∥≤r }.\min\Bigl\{\,f(x)=\tfrac12\langle x,Ax\rangle+\langle b,x\rangle \;:\; \|x\|\le r\,\Bigr\}.min{f(x)=21​⟨x,Ax⟩+⟨b,x⟩:∥x∥≤r}.

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a Kuhn–Tucker point of (Q1) with multiplier λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ when

λ∗≥0,(A+λ∗I)x∗=−b,λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0,∥x∗∥≤r.\lambda^*\ge0,\qquad (A+\lambda^*I)x^*=-b,\qquad \lambda^*(\|x^*\|-r)=0,\qquad \|x^*\|\le r .λ∗≥0,(A+λ∗I)x∗=−b,λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0,∥x∗∥≤r.

In Lean, Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), AAA is a self-adjoint continuous linear operator on it, fff is quad A b, and the four conditions are IsKKT A b r xs lamStar.

Let (λ1,u)(\lambda_1,u)(λ1​,u) be an eigenpair of AAA: u≠0u\ne0u=0 and Au=λ1uAu=\lambda_1uAu=λ1​u. If λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0 then

uT(A+λ∗I)u=(λ∗+λ1) uTu<0,u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u=(\lambda^*+\lambda_1)\,u^Tu<0,uT(A+λ∗I)u=(λ∗+λ1​)uTu<0,

so uuu is a direction of negative curvature of the shifted matrix. For a direction w≠0w\ne0w=0 and ∥x∗∥≤r\|x^*\|\le r∥x∗∥≤r, the restart step γ\gammaγ of (23) is the nonzero root of ∥w∥2γ2+2wTx∗γ+∥x∗∥2−r2=0\|w\|^2\gamma^2+2w^Tx^*\gamma+\|x^*\|^2-r^2=0∥w∥2γ2+2wTx∗γ+∥x∗∥2−r2=0, so that x∗+γwx^*+\gamma wx∗+γw lies on the sphere ∥x∥=r\|x\|=r∥x∥=r (Lean: restartGamma w xs r s, with a sign s=±1s=\pm1s=±1 choosing between the two roots when ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r).

Formalization targets

Goal: a Kuhn–Tucker point that fails the eigenvalue test can be improved

IsKKT(x∗,λ∗),    Au=λ1u,  u≠0,    λ∗+λ1<0  ⟹  ∃ xˉ: ∥xˉ∥≤r,  f(xˉ)<f(x∗).\text{IsKKT}(x^*,\lambda^*),\;\; Au=\lambda_1u,\;u\ne0,\;\; \lambda^*+\lambda_1<0 \;\Longrightarrow\; \exists\,\bar x:\ \|\bar x\|\le r,\ \ f(\bar x)<f(x^*).IsKKT(x∗,λ∗),Au=λ1​u,u=0,λ∗+λ1​<0⟹∃xˉ: ∥xˉ∥≤r,  f(xˉ)<f(x∗).

This is the "Summing up" claim of §4.2 (p. 493). It asserts only the existence of a better feasible point; the explicit construction is spread over the milestones.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. The multiplier (p. 491): λ∗=(−⟨x∗,Ax∗⟩−⟨x∗,b⟩)/r2\lambda^*=(-\langle x^*,Ax^*\rangle-\langle x^*,b\rangle)/r^2λ∗=(−⟨x∗,Ax∗⟩−⟨x∗,b⟩)/r2.
  2. Lemma 4.2 (p. 492): if (A+μI)y=−b(A+\mu I)y=-b(A+μI)y=−b, then f(x)=f(y)−μ2(∥x∥2−∥y∥2)+12⟨x−y,(A+μI)(x−y)⟩f(x)=f(y)-\frac\mu2(\|x\|^2-\|y\|^2)+\frac12\langle x-y,(A+\mu I)(x-y)\ranglef(x)=f(y)−2μ​(∥x∥2−∥y∥2)+21​⟨x−y,(A+μI)(x−y)⟩ for all xxx.
  3. Case a) (p. 492): if ⟨b,x∗⟩>0\langle b,x^*\rangle>0⟨b,x∗⟩>0, then xˉ=−x∗\bar x=-x^*xˉ=−x∗ is feasible and f(xˉ)=f(x∗)−2⟨b,x∗⟩<f(x∗)f(\bar x)=f(x^*)-2\langle b,x^*\rangle<f(x^*)f(xˉ)=f(x∗)−2⟨b,x∗⟩<f(x∗).
  4. Case (b.1) (p. 492): if wT(A+λ∗I)w<0w^T(A+\lambda^*I)w<0wT(A+λ∗I)w<0 and either ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r, or ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r and wTx∗≠0w^Tx^*\ne0wTx∗=0, then xˉ=x∗+γw\bar x=x^*+\gamma wxˉ=x∗+γw with γ\gammaγ from (23) satisfies γ≠0\gamma\ne0γ=0, ∥xˉ∥=r\|\bar x\|=r∥xˉ∥=r and f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+γ22⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩<f(x∗)f(\bar x)=f(x^*)+\frac{\gamma^2}2\langle w,(A+\lambda^*I)w\rangle<f(x^*)f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+2γ2​⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩<f(x∗).
  5. Case (b.2), bTx∗=0b^Tx^*=0bTx∗=0 (p. 493): if ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r, uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0 and uT(A+λ∗I)u<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u<0uT(A+λ∗I)u<0, then v=u+τx∗v=u+\tau x^*v=u+τx∗ has vTx∗≠0v^Tx^*\ne0vTx∗=0 and vT(A+λ∗I)v<0v^T(A+\lambda^*I)v<0vT(A+λ∗I)v<0 for all τ<0\tau<0τ<0 when bTu≤0b^Tu\le0bTu≤0, and for uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)<τ<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/(2b^Tu)<\tau<0uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)<τ<0 when bTu>0b^Tu>0bTu>0.
  6. Case (b.2), bTx∗<0b^Tx^*<0bTx∗<0 (p. 493): the same conclusion for τ1<τ<0\tau_1<\tau<0τ1​<τ<0, where τ1<0\tau_1<0τ1​<0 is the smallest root of −bTx∗τ2−2bTu τ+uT(A+λ∗I)u-b^Tx^*\tau^2-2b^Tu\,\tau+u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u−bTx∗τ2−2bTuτ+uT(A+λ∗I)u.

A companion item records the paper's remark that, for ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r, the root of (23) with the larger γ2\gamma^2γ2 gives the smaller f(xˉ)f(\bar x)f(xˉ).

Significance

The restart claim turns a local method into a global one. Combined with the convergence of DCA to Kuhn–Tucker points (Theorem 4.1 of the paper) and the global-optimality characterization of (Q1), it shows that each DCA run either ends at a certified global solution or yields a feasible point that strictly improves on it, with the improvement given in closed form from one eigenvector. The construction is elementary, but its case analysis — the sign of ⟨b,x∗⟩\langle b,x^*\rangle⟨b,x∗⟩, whether the constraint is active, whether the eigenvector is orthogonal to x∗x^*x∗ — is exactly where an informal argument can go wrong, and the printed (b.2) bounds contain two errors (see Formalization scope).

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked version of the case analysis with the corrected constants, and reusable facts about quadratics on the Euclidean ball (Lemma 4.2, the step to the sphere along a negative-curvature direction) that apply to any trust-region method.

Difficulty

The obvious argument — move from x∗x^*x∗ along the negative-curvature eigenvector uuu until the boundary is reached — fails in one case. When ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r and uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0, the line x∗+γux^*+\gamma ux∗+γu leaves the ball for every γ≠0\gamma\ne0γ=0, so no step along uuu is feasible. The paper repairs this by tilting uuu towards x∗x^*x∗, and the tilt must keep the curvature negative while making the direction non-orthogonal to x∗x^*x∗; the admissible range of the tilt depends on the signs of bTx∗b^Tx^*bTx∗ and bTub^TubTu. A second subtlety is that the identity f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+γ22⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩f(\bar x)=f(x^*)+\frac{\gamma^2}{2}\langle w,(A+\lambda^*I)w\ranglef(xˉ)=f(x∗)+2γ2​⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩ needs the term λ∗(∥xˉ∥2−∥x∗∥2)\lambda^*(\|\bar x\|^2-\|x^*\|^2)λ∗(∥xˉ∥2−∥x∗∥2) of Lemma 4.2 to vanish, which uses complementarity when ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r and ∥xˉ∥=r\|\bar x\|=r∥xˉ∥=r when the constraint is active.

Formalization scope

All statements live in namespace TaoAnDCA.Restart on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with AAA a continuous linear operator and symmetry the hypothesis IsSelfAdjoint A; r>0r>0r>0 throughout. The objective quad is the bare quadratic, with feasibility ∥x∥≤r\|x\|\le r∥x∥≤r stated separately.

Conventions and disclosed deviations from the page:

  • The goal assumes an arbitrary eigenpair with λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0 and an arbitrary Kuhn–Tucker point. The page has "the smallest eigenvalue" and "a point produced by the DCA"; neither is used, so the stated theorem is stronger.
  • Case (b.1) is stated for a general direction www of negative curvature, since (b.2) re-enters it with a vector that is not an eigenvector; the heading "⟨b,x∗⟩≤0\langle b,x^*\rangle\le0⟨b,x∗⟩≤0" of case b) is not assumed because the computation does not use it.
  • Cases (b.2) take a general uuu with uT(A+λ∗I)u<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u<0uT(A+λ∗I)u<0; for an eigenvector uuu with uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0 one has bTu=0b^Tu=0bTu=0, which would make the bTu>0b^Tu>0bTu>0 branch vacuous.
  • The page's bound uT(A+λ∗I)u/bTuu^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/b^TuuT(A+λ∗I)u/bTu in the first (b.2) bullet lacks a factor 2 and is false for general uuu; the Lean uses uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/(2b^Tu)uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu). The page's formula for τ1\tau_1τ1​ has the sign of bTub^TubTu reversed; the Lean uses the smallest root, as the page's words define it. Both printed versions agree with the corrected ones when bTu=0b^Tu=0bTu=0.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal's hypothesis is the eigenvalue test λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0, never "x∗x^*x∗ is not a global solution", which would make the conclusion a restatement of the hypothesis.

No infrastructure beyond Mathlib's inner product spaces is needed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and of the goal from them.

Selected references

  • Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An, A d.c. optimization algorithm for solving the trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim. 8(2):476–505, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623494274313
  • J. J. Moré and D. C. Sorensen, Computing a trust region step, SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 4(3):553–572, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/0904038
  • D. M. Gay, Computing optimal locally constrained steps, SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 2(2):186–197, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1137/0902016
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models 3: If Demand Increases in the Convex Order, the Optimal Lost-Sales Cost f̄_t(v; φ) Is Nondecreasing in φResearch Paper

Motivation

In the periodic-review inventory model with lost sales, demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backordered. With a positive order lead time LLL the state of the system is a vector of length LLL: on-hand stock plus the L−1L-1L−1 orders still in the pipeline. This model is standard in retail, where a customer facing an empty shelf buys elsewhere. Its optimal policy is not a base-stock policy and depends on the whole pipeline vector, which makes it much harder to analyse than the backorder model.

A basic question for any stochastic inventory model is how its optimal cost responds to uncertainty in demand. For the backorder model it is classical that more variable demand costs more (Song 1994). Zipkin's paper (Oper. Res. 56(4), 2008, 937–944) recasts the lost-sales model in a transformed state in which the optimal cost functions are L♮^\natural♮-convex. Its §5 uses this structure to prove the lost-sales analogue: if demand becomes more variable in the convex order, the optimal cost does not decrease. The paper presents this as new in the lost-sales setting.

Timeline of the structural results the mission rests on:

  • 1958: Karlin and Scarf analyse the lost-sales model with lead time one and show that the optimal order decreases in the on-hand stock, with sensitivity less than one.
  • 1969: Morton extends these monotonicity and bounded-sensitivity properties to general lead times and derives bounds on the optimal order.
  • 2008: Zipkin reproves these properties through L♮^\natural♮-convexity in the transformed state (Theorem 4) and adds the parametric result of §5 (Theorem 11).

Setting

The order lead time is a positive integer LLL. The cost factors are the unit procurement cost ccc, the unit holding cost h^\hat hh^, the unit lost-sales penalty ppp and the discount factor γ\gammaγ. Demands in different periods are independent and nonnegative, with a common law. The paper treats states and orders as continuous.

Transformed state. A state is a vector v=(v0,…,vL−1)v=(v_0,\dots,v_{L-1})v=(v0​,…,vL−1​), where vlv_lvl​ is the stock on hand plus all orders due to arrive lll or more periods hence, and vL=0v_L=0vL​=0 by convention. So v0v_0v0​ is the inventory position and v0−v1v_0-v_1v0​−v1​ is the stock on hand. The state space is

V={v∈RL: v0≥v1≥⋯≥vL−1≥0}.V=\{v\in\mathbb R^L:\ v_0\ge v_1\ge\cdots\ge v_{L-1}\ge0\}.V={v∈RL: v0​≥v1​≥⋯≥vL−1​≥0}.

The action is ζ=−z≤0\zeta=-z\le0ζ=−z≤0, where z≥0z\ge0z≥0 is the order quantity, and eee is the all-ones vector. After demand ddd, the next state is

v+=([v0−v1−d]++v1, v2, …, vL−1, 0)−ζe.v_+=\big([v_0-v_1-d]^++v_1,\ v_2,\ \dots,\ v_{L-1},\ 0\big)-\zeta e.v+​=([v0​−v1​−d]++v1​, v2​, …, vL−1​, 0)−ζe.

Costs and recursion. The end-of-period holding and penalty cost is q^(u)=h^u++pu−\hat q(u)=\hat hu^++pu^-q^​(u)=h^u++pu−, and its expectation given on-hand stock yyy is q^0(y)=E[q^(y−d)]\hat q^0(y)=E[\hat q(y-d)]q^​0(y)=E[q^​(y−d)]. The optimal cost functions satisfy

gˉt(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^0(v0−v1)+γE[fˉt+1(v+)],fˉt(v)=min⁡ζ≤0gˉt(v,ζ),\bar g_t(v,\zeta)=-\gamma^Lc\zeta+\hat q^0(v_0-v_1)+\gamma E[\bar f_{t+1}(v_+)],\qquad \bar f_t(v)=\min_{\zeta\le0}\bar g_t(v,\zeta),gˉ​t​(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^​0(v0​−v1​)+γE[fˉ​t+1​(v+​)],fˉ​t​(v)=ζ≤0min​gˉ​t​(v,ζ),

with fˉT+L+1=0\bar f_{T+L+1}=0fˉ​T+L+1​=0. This is the paper's recursion (1)–(2), written in the state vvv.

Program (4). Fix a demand ddd. Choosing the next stock level v+v_+v+​, with −d≤v+−v0≤0-d\le v_+-v_0\le0−d≤v+​−v0​≤0 and v+≥v1v_+\ge v_1v+​≥v1​, gives

κˉt(v,ζ∣d)=min⁡v+{h^(v+−v1)+p(v+−v0+d)+γfˉt+1[(v+,v2,…,vL−1,0)−ζe]}.\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)=\min_{v_+}\Big\{\hat h(v_+-v_1)+p(v_+-v_0+d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}\big[(v_+,v_2,\dots,v_{L-1},0)-\zeta e\big]\Big\}.κˉt​(v,ζ∣d)=v+​min​{h^(v+​−v1​)+p(v+​−v0​+d)+γfˉ​t+1​[(v+​,v2​,…,vL−1​,0)−ζe]}.

Here v+−v1v_+-v_1v+​−v1​ is the leftover stock and d−(v0−v+)d-(v_0-v_+)d−(v0​−v+​) the unmet demand.

Parametric demand. The demand d(ϕ)d(\phi)d(ϕ) depends on a real parameter ϕ\phiϕ, with law μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​, and fˉt(v;ϕ)\bar f_t(v;\phi)fˉ​t​(v;ϕ) is the optimal cost under μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​. A random variable XXX is smaller than YYY in the convex order if E g(X)≤E g(Y)E\,g(X)\le E\,g(Y)Eg(X)≤Eg(Y) for every convex g:R→Rg:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rg:R→R for which both expectations exist. This forces equal means and a variance that does not decrease.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11 (p. 941)

If d(ϕ)d(\phi)d(ϕ) is increasing in ϕ\phiϕ with respect to the convex order, then for all ttt and all v∈Vv\in Vv∈V,

ϕ≤ϕ′ ⟹ fˉt(v;ϕ)≤fˉt(v;ϕ′).\phi\le\phi'\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar f_t(v;\phi)\le\bar f_t(v;\phi').ϕ≤ϕ′ ⟹ fˉ​t​(v;ϕ)≤fˉ​t​(v;ϕ′).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Reformulation (proof of Theorem 4, p. 939). For v∈Vv\in Vv∈V, ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0, d≥0d\ge0d≥0, the stock level v+=[v0−v1−d]++v1v_+=[v_0-v_1-d]^++v_1v+​=[v0​−v1​−d]++v1​ is optimal in program (4):
κˉt(v,ζ∣d)=q^(v0−v1−d)+γfˉt+1(v+).\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)=\hat q(v_0-v_1-d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}(v_+).κˉt​(v,ζ∣d)=q^​(v0​−v1​−d)+γfˉ​t+1​(v+​).
  1. Convexity of the optimal cost (Theorem 4, p. 939, with the remark on p. 938). fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ is convex on VVV for every ttt.
  2. The key step (proof of Theorem 11, p. 941). If FFF is convex and nonnegative on VVV, then program (4) with continuation FFF is jointly convex in (v,ζ,d)(v,\zeta,d)(v,ζ,d) on {v∈V, ζ≤0, d≥0}\{v\in V,\ \zeta\le0,\ d\ge0\}{v∈V, ζ≤0, d≥0}.
  3. The induction step (proof of Theorem 11, p. 941). If fˉt+1(v;ϕ)\bar f_{t+1}(v;\phi)fˉ​t+1​(v;ϕ) is nondecreasing in ϕ\phiϕ on VVV, then so is gˉt(v,ζ;ϕ)\bar g_t(v,\zeta;\phi)gˉ​t​(v,ζ;ϕ) for every ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0.

Significance

Theorem 11 is a comparative-statics statement: replacing demand by a mean-preserving spread cannot lower the optimal cost from any starting state, at any horizon. It justifies valuing variance reduction in lost-sales systems, for example forecasting or demand pooling, without solving the high-dimensional dynamic program. The induction pattern of the proof transfers to other parametric questions about the model; §6 of the paper notes that the parametric analysis remains valid in several extensions.

The paper proves Theorem 11 in a few lines on top of Theorem 4. No machine-checked proof of the result or of its structural prerequisites is known: neither the lost-sales recursion in the transformed state nor its convexity is formalized. A complete development checks the measure-theoretic steps the paper leaves implicit: that the optimal costs are finite, the existence of the expectations, and the passage from convexity in ddd on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) to the convex order's test functions on R\mathbb RR.

Difficulty

The argument looks immediate: the costs are convex, so the convex order should apply directly. It does not. The function to which the convex order must be applied is the end-of-period cost as a function of demand. In recursion (1) that function is q^(v0−v1−d)+γfˉt+1(v+(d))\hat q(v_0-v_1-d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}(v_+(d))q^​(v0​−v1​−d)+γfˉ​t+1​(v+​(d)), where the next state depends on ddd through the kink [v0−v1−d]+[v_0-v_1-d]^+[v0​−v1​−d]+. Convexity of fˉt+1\bar f_{t+1}fˉ​t+1​ alone does not make this composition convex in ddd. The paper avoids the issue by passing to program (4), where the amount of demand filled is a decision. That requires two facts: that selling as much as possible is optimal (milestone 1), and that the program is jointly convex in state, action and demand (milestone 3), which needs convexity of fˉt+1\bar f_{t+1}fˉ​t+1​ on all of VVV (milestone 2). A second difficulty is analytic: the optimal costs are defined by infima and expectations, and one must show that these are finite and integrable before any order comparison applies.

Formalization scope

  • Model. States are Fin L → ℝ with 0-based indices matching the paper. vL=0v_L=0vL​=0 is the helper vext. VVV is the set of antitone, nonnegative vectors.
  • Time. Data are stationary, so the optimal cost is indexed by the number of periods to go kkk, with fˉ=0\bar f=0fˉ​=0 at k=0k=0k=0. The paper's "for all ttt" is "for all kkk".
  • Demand. One-period demand has law μ\muμ, a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0 and finite mean. The finite mean is not in the paper; it is added so that q^0\hat q^0q^​0 is finite.
  • Parametric family. A family μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​, ϕ∈R\phi\in\mathbb Rϕ∈R, with every hypothesis imposed for every ϕ\phiϕ. Every object depending on demand takes the law as an argument, so fˉt(v;ϕ)\bar f_t(v;\phi)fˉ​t​(v;ϕ) is fbar … (μ φ) k v.
  • Costs. "Unit cost" and "discount rate" are read as c,h^,p≥0c,\hat h,p\ge0c,h^,p≥0 and 0<γ≤10<\gamma\le10<γ≤1.
  • Minima. "Min" over orders is an infimum over ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0, and program (4) is an infimum over the interval [max⁡(v0−d,v1),v0][\max(v_0-d,v_1),v_0][max(v0​−d,v1​),v0​]. Lean's infimum is 000 on sets that are unbounded below or empty. Nonnegative costs and demand keep the infima genuine, and the generic key-step milestone assumes the continuation is nonnegative.
  • Expectations. Bochner integrals.
  • Convex order. The platform definition StochasticOrders.Convex.ConvexOrder (Shaked–Shanthikumar (3.A.1)), applied to the identity on (R,μϕ)(\mathbb R,\mu_\phi)(R,μϕ​). Equal means are a consequence and are not assumed.
  • Convexity milestone. Stated for the model's fˉ\bar ffˉ​ only, not as "L♮^\natural♮-convex implies convex" in general, which fails without regularity.

Ruled out. Value functions that collapse to a junk constant would make Theorem 11 trivially true. This is excluded because the recursion is defined, not assumed, and every cost and demand hypothesis is imposed for every ϕ\phiϕ. Replacing the convex order by "variance nondecreasing", by the increasing convex order, or by test functions convex only on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) changes the theorem and is not accepted.

Infrastructure and contributions. A complete development needs:

  • finiteness and integrability of the optimal costs;
  • convexity of partial infima over convex fibers;
  • monotone extension of a function convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) to all of R\mathbb RR.

The model file is shared in shape with the series' missions 1 (L♮^\natural♮-convexity) and 2 (policy bounds), and its convexity lemmas are reusable for other parametric comparisons of the lost-sales model. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments that bypass program (4), are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, On the structure of lost-sales inventory models, Operations Research 56(4), 937–944, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0482
  • S. Karlin, H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Chapter 10, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the solution of the lagged optimal inventory equation with no demand backlogging and proportional costs, SIAM Review 11, 572–576, 1969 (as cited in Zipkin 2008).
  • J.-S. Song, The effect of leadtime uncertainty in a simple stochastic inventory model, Management Science 40(5), 603–613, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.5.603
  • D. Stoyan, Comparison Methods for Queues and Other Stochastic Models, Wiley, 1983.
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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