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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record→≥ 0.526Open frontier
3 provers on it3 of 8 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.92027942Formalized record→≤ 1.920279408185Open frontier
5 provers on it9 of 11 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
42 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Is Network Traffic Approximated by Stable Lévy Motion or Fractional Brownian Motion? 1: Infinite Source Poisson Input Under Slow Growth Converges (fidi) to Totally Skewed α-Stable Lévy MotionResearch Paper

Motivation

Measurements of Ethernet and Internet traffic in the 1990s showed that the amount of data offered to a link is bursty on every time scale and that the lengths of transmissions (file sizes, connection durations) have heavy, regularly varying tails. Two families of approximations for the cumulative input were proposed: fractional Brownian motion, which has dependent Gaussian increments, and α-stable Lévy motion, which has independent, heavy-tailed increments. The two lead to very different predictions for buffer overflow and link dimensioning.

T. Mikosch, S. Resnick, H. Rootzén and A. Stegeman (Ann. Appl. Probab. 12 (2002) 23–68) showed that both answers are correct in different regimes, and that the regime is decided by how fast the connection rate grows relative to the time scale. This mission formalizes their result for the infinite source Poisson model under slow growth, where the limit is a totally skewed α-stable Lévy motion. Companion missions treat the ON/OFF model and the fast-growth regime with its fractional Brownian limit.

Setting

A transmission length has law FonF_{\mathrm{on}}Fon​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with tail Fˉon(x)=Fon((x,∞))\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)=F_{\mathrm{on}}((x,\infty))Fˉon​(x)=Fon​((x,∞)). Condition (2.8) asks

Fˉon(x)=x−αL(x),x>0,1<α<2,\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)=x^{-\alpha}L(x),\qquad x>0,\quad 1<\alpha<2,Fˉon​(x)=x−αL(x),x>0,1<α<2,

with LLL slowly varying (L(cx)/L(x)→1L(cx)/L(x)\to1L(cx)/L(x)→1 for every c>0c>0c>0). The mean μon\mu_{\mathrm{on}}μon​ is finite and the variance infinite. The quantile function (2.9) is b(t)=(1/Fˉon)←(t)=inf⁡{x:1/Fˉon(x)≥t}b(t)=(1/\bar F_{\mathrm{on}})^{\leftarrow}(t)=\inf\{x:1/\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)\ge t\}b(t)=(1/Fˉon​)←(t)=inf{x:1/Fˉon​(x)≥t}.

In the TTT-th model, connections start at the points (Γk)k∈Z(\Gamma_k)_{k\in\mathbb Z}(Γk​)k∈Z​ of a homogeneous Poisson process on R\mathbb RR with rate λ=λ(T)\lambda=\lambda(T)λ=λ(T), labelled so that Γ0<0<Γ1\Gamma_0<0<\Gamma_1Γ0​<0<Γ1​. Connection kkk transmits at unit rate for a time XkX_kXk​; the XkX_kXk​ are iid with law FonF_{\mathrm{on}}Fon​ and independent of the Γk\Gamma_kΓk​. The number of active connections and the cumulative input are

N(t)=∑k∈Z1[Γk≤t<Γk+Xk],A(t)=∫0tN(s) ds.N(t)=\sum_{k\in\mathbb Z}\mathbf 1[\Gamma_k\le t<\Gamma_k+X_k],\qquad A(t)=\int_0^tN(s)\,ds .N(t)=k∈Z∑​1[Γk​≤t<Γk​+Xk​],A(t)=∫0t​N(s)ds.

The rate λ(T)\lambda(T)λ(T) is a positive non-decreasing function of TTT. Slow Growth Condition 1 is

lim⁡T→∞b(λT)T=0,\lim_{T\to\infty}\frac{b(\lambda T)}{T}=0,T→∞lim​Tb(λT)​=0,

where b(λT)b(\lambda T)b(λT) is bbb evaluated at λ(T) T\lambda(T)\,Tλ(T)T.

The stable law Sα(σ,β,μ)S_\alpha(\sigma,\beta,\mu)Sα​(σ,β,μ) is the law with characteristic function exp⁡{−σα∣θ∣α(1−iβ sign(θ)tan⁡(πα/2))+iμθ}\exp\{-\sigma^\alpha|\theta|^\alpha(1-i\beta\,\mathrm{sign}(\theta)\tan(\pi\alpha/2))+i\mu\theta\}exp{−σα∣θ∣α(1−iβsign(θ)tan(πα/2))+iμθ} for α≠1\alpha\ne1α=1. α-stable Lévy motion Xα,σ,βX_{\alpha,\sigma,\beta}Xα,σ,β​ has independent stationary increments with X(t)−X(s)∼Sα(σ(t−s)1/α,β,0)X(t)-X(s)\sim S_\alpha(\sigma(t-s)^{1/\alpha},\beta,0)X(t)−X(s)∼Sα​(σ(t−s)1/α,β,0). Write

Cα=1−αΓ(2−α)cos⁡(πα/2)(5.1).C_\alpha=\frac{1-\alpha}{\Gamma(2-\alpha)\cos(\pi\alpha/2)}\quad(5.1).Cα​=Γ(2−α)cos(πα/2)1−α​(5.1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (corrected scale)

Under (2.8) and Condition 1,

A(T⋅)−Tλμon(⋅)b(λT)→ fidi Xα,Cα−1/α,1(⋅),\frac{A(T\cdot)-T\lambda\mu_{\mathrm{on}}(\cdot)}{b(\lambda T)}\xrightarrow{\ fidi\ }X_{\alpha,C_\alpha^{-1/\alpha},1}(\cdot),b(λT)A(T⋅)−Tλμon​(⋅)​ fidi ​Xα,Cα−1/α​,1​(⋅),

convergence of the finite-dimensional distributions to a totally skewed (β=1\beta=1β=1) α-stable Lévy motion.

On the scale. The paper prints the limit Xα,1,1X_{\alpha,1,1}Xα,1,1​. Its own proof establishes λT P(j1>b(λT)x)→x−α\lambda T\,P(j_1>b(\lambda T)x)\to x^{-\alpha}λTP(j1​>b(λT)x)→x−α (pp. 37–38), which makes αx−α−1dx\alpha x^{-\alpha-1}dxαx−α−1dx the Lévy measure of the limit. The totally skewed stable law with that Lévy measure has σα=Γ(1−α)cos⁡(πα/2)=Cα−1\sigma^\alpha=\Gamma(1-\alpha)\cos(\pi\alpha/2)=C_\alpha^{-1}σα=Γ(1−α)cos(πα/2)=Cα−1​ (Samorodnitsky–Taqqu, Property 1.2.15; also the paper's own criterion on p. 47 with c=1c=1c=1, and the σ\sigmaσ the paper prints in Theorem 2). Since CαC_\alphaCα​ decreases from 2/π2/\pi2/π to 000 on (1,2)(1,2)(1,2) (C1.5≈0.399C_{1.5}\approx0.399C1.5​≈0.399), the printed limit has the wrong scale and the theorem as printed is false. The goal states the corrected scale Cα−1/αC_\alpha^{-1/\alpha}Cα−1/α​; milestones quote the page as printed.

Milestones, in attack order

(2.14), the covariance of NNN; Lemma 1 part 1 (Condition 1   ⟺  λTFˉon(T)→0  ⟺  Cov(NT(0),NT(T))→0\iff\lambda T\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(T)\to0\iff\mathrm{Cov}(N_T(0),N_T(T))\to0⟺λTFˉon​(T)→0⟺Cov(NT​(0),NT​(T))→0); Lemma 2, slow part (λT2Fˉon(T)/b(λT)→0\lambda T^2\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(T)/b(\lambda T)\to0λT2Fˉon​(T)/b(λT)→0); (4.15), negligibility of the boundary pieces A2,A3,A4A_2,A_3,A_4A2​,A3​,A4​; the tail limit of j1j_1j1​; (4.17), A12=OP([λT]1/2)=oP(b(λT))A_{12}=O_P([\lambda T]^{1/2})=o_P(b(\lambda T))A12​=OP​([λT]1/2)=oP​(b(λT)); (4.20)–(4.21), A13=o(b(λT))A_{13}=o(b(\lambda T))A13​=o(b(λT)); (4.19), corrected, the stable limit of A11A_{11}A11​; the corrected one-dimensional limit of A(T)A(T)A(T); and EA22=o(b(λT))EA_{22}=o(b(\lambda T))EA22​=o(b(λT)) of §4.5, which reduces the fidi convergence to the one-dimensional one.

Significance

The theorem shows that under slow connection growth the cumulative input is asymptotically a process with independent, infinite-variance increments. Long-range dependence present in each model (the covariance (2.14) decays like h−(α−1)L(h)h^{-(\alpha-1)}L(h)h−(α−1)L(h)) disappears on the time scale TTT, and the heavy tail of the transmission lengths dominates. Together with the fast-growth result (fractional Brownian motion) it explains why both approximations are found in measured traffic, and it identifies the critical quantity b(λT)/Tb(\lambda T)/Tb(λT)/T.

The result is proved in the paper, modulo the scale. No part of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a formal statement of the infinite source Poisson model with its marked point process structure, a formal statement of stable laws and stable Lévy motion through their characteristic functions, and machine-checked versions of the paper's estimates. Correcting the printed scale is part of the output.

Difficulty

The pieces A2,A3,A4,A12,A13,A22A_2,A_3,A_4,A_{12},A_{13},A_{22}A2​,A3​,A4​,A12​,A13​,A22​ are controlled by first moments, regular variation and Lemma 2. The central step is the stable limit of A11A_{11}A11​: a sum of a Poisson number of iid, heavy-tailed summands whose law changes with TTT. A classical central limit theorem does not apply because the variance is infinite, and the summands form a triangular array. The paper cites a point-process limit (Resnick's Exercise 4.4.2.8) for this step; a formal proof needs a convergence theorem for row-wise iid triangular arrays to stable laws, with the constant CαC_\alphaCα​ computed exactly.

Formalization scope

Each TTT has its own probability space carrying the TTT-th model, and every statement quantifies over all such families. The Poisson points are given by their iid exponential spacings −Γ0,Γ1,Γk+1−Γk-\Gamma_0,\Gamma_1,\Gamma_{k+1}-\Gamma_k−Γ0​,Γ1​,Γk+1​−Γk​ (k≠0)(k\ne0)(k=0), indexed by Z\mathbb ZZ. (2.8) is stated as "x↦xαFˉon(x)x\mapsto x^\alpha\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)x↦xαFˉon​(x) is slowly varying", with lengths non-negative. b(t)b(t)b(t) is inf⁡{x>0:tFˉon(x)≤1}\inf\{x>0:t\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)\le1\}inf{x>0:tFˉon​(x)≤1}, which equals the page's generalized inverse for t>0t>0t>0. N(t)N(t)N(t) is a cardinality and the region sums are sums of non-negative terms; their junk values (an infinite set, a non-summable family) occur only on null events. AAA is an interval integral. The growth hypothesis is: λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, non-decreasing, Condition 1. No other hypothesis is added.

The fidi limit is pinned by its characteristic function on Rk\mathbb R^kRk for sorted times 0≤t1≤⋯≤tk0\le t_1\le\dots\le t_k0≤t1​≤⋯≤tk​: the product of the characteristic functions of Sα(σ(tj−tj−1)1/α,1,0)S_\alpha(\sigma(t_j-t_{j-1})^{1/\alpha},1,0)Sα​(σ(tj​−tj−1​)1/α,1,0) evaluated at θj+⋯+θk\theta_j+\dots+\theta_kθj​+⋯+θk​. The existence of the limit law is part of the claim. One-dimensional limits are stated the same way on R\mathbb RR. Convergence in probability to 000 is PT(∣YT∣>η)→0P_T(|Y_T|>\eta)\to0PT​(∣YT​∣>η)→0 for every η>0\eta>0η>0.

Trivializing formalizations are excluded:

  • bbb is never the junk value 000, since its defining set is nonempty and bounded below.
  • The model hypothesis is satisfiable for every rate and length law; a sanity file builds it from product measures, together with a Pareto law satisfying (2.8) and a rate satisfying Condition 1.
  • The limit object is fixed by its characteristic function, not merely asserted to exist.
  • Only fidi convergence is claimed, as on the page. Convergence in the Skorokhod J1J_1J1​ topology fails for this model (Remark after Theorem 1).

A complete development needs regular variation (Karamata's theorem, Potter bounds, generalized inverses), the Poisson random measure of the marked points, and stable limits for triangular arrays. All three are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones are welcome separately, as are general Mathlib-style lemmas on regular variation.

Selected references

  • T. Mikosch, S. Resnick, H. Rootzén, A. Stegeman, Is network traffic approximated by stable Lévy motion or fractional Brownian motion?, Ann. Appl. Probab. 12(1) (2002) 23–68. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015961155
  • G. Samorodnitsky, M. S. Taqqu, Stable Non-Gaussian Random Processes, Chapman & Hall, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1201/9780203738818
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie, J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721434
  • S. I. Resnick, Extreme Values, Regular Variation, and Point Processes, Springer, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-75953-1
12 thms1 active userReviewed
Graph TheoryMathematical PhysicsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Ising Models on Locally Tree-Like Graphs 1: On Uniformly Sparse Locally Tree-Like Graphs the Ising Free Entropy Density Converges to the Bethe PredictionResearch Paper

Motivation

The ferromagnetic Ising model is the basic model of statistical mechanics for interacting binary variables. On a finite graph it is a probability distribution over spin configurations, and its normalizing constant, the partition function, encodes the thermodynamics: the free entropy per vertex determines the magnetization, the correlations, and the location of phase transitions. On lattices this quantity is understood only in special cases. On sparse random graphs, such as random regular graphs and Erdős–Rényi graphs with bounded average degree, physicists predicted it with the cavity method (Mézard and Parisi, The Bethe lattice spin glass revisited, 2001): locally these graphs look like trees, and on trees the model can be solved by a recursion. The same recursion underlies belief propagation, the message-passing algorithm used in coding theory and machine learning.

Timeline:

  • Dembo and Montanari (2008/2010), Ising models on locally tree-like graphs, Ann. Appl. Probab. 20 (2010) 565–592: for every uniformly sparse graph sequence converging locally to a Galton–Watson tree whose offspring law has finite mean, the free entropy density converges at every temperature β≥0\beta \ge 0β≥0 and every field BBB, and for B>0B > 0B>0 the limit is the Bethe prediction. Earlier rigorous results covered special cases, among them Erdős–Rényi graphs in a restricted range of parameters (reference [7] of the paper) and random regular graphs (reference [11]).
  • Dembo, Montanari and Sun (2013), Factor models on locally tree-like graphs, extended the approach to a class of factor models on locally tree-like graphs.

Setting

Let Gn=(Vn=[n],En)G_n = (V_n = [n], E_n)Gn​=(Vn​=[n],En​) be a sequence of finite graphs. The Ising measure at inverse temperature β≥0\beta \ge 0β≥0 and magnetic field B∈RB \in \mathbb RB∈R is

μ(x‾)=1Zn(β,B)exp⁡{β∑(i,j)∈Enxixj+B∑i∈Vnxi},xi∈{+1,−1},\mu(\underline x) = \frac{1}{Z_n(\beta,B)} \exp\Big\{\beta \sum_{(i,j)\in E_n} x_i x_j + B \sum_{i \in V_n} x_i\Big\}, \qquad x_i \in \{+1,-1\},μ(x​)=Zn​(β,B)1​exp{β(i,j)∈En​∑​xi​xj​+Bi∈Vn​∑​xi​},xi​∈{+1,−1},

each edge counted once, and the free entropy density is ϕn(β,B)=1nlog⁡Zn(β,B)\phi_n(\beta,B) = \frac1n \log Z_n(\beta,B)ϕn​(β,B)=n1​logZn​(β,B).

A degree distribution is a law P={Pk}P = \{P_k\}P={Pk​} on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} with 0<Pˉ=∑kkPk<∞0 < \bar P = \sum_k k P_k < \infty0<Pˉ=∑k​kPk​<∞; its size-biased version is ρk=kPk/Pˉ\rho_k = k P_k/\bar Pρk​=kPk​/Pˉ, and ρˉ=∑k(k−1)ρk\bar\rho = \sum_k (k-1)\rho_kρˉ​=∑k​(k−1)ρk​. The Galton–Watson tree T(P,ρ,∞)T(P,\rho,\infty)T(P,ρ,∞) has a root with kkk children with probability PkP_kPk​, and every other vertex independently has k−1k-1k−1 children with probability ρk\rho_kρk​; T(P,ρ,t)T(P,\rho,t)T(P,ρ,t) is its first ttt generations.

The ball Bi(t)B_i(t)Bi​(t) is the subgraph induced by the vertices within distance ttt of iii, rooted at iii. The sequence converges locally to T(P,ρ,∞)T(P,\rho,\infty)T(P,ρ,∞) if, for every ttt and every rooted tree TTT, the fraction of vertices iii with Bi(t)≃TB_i(t) \simeq TBi​(t)≃T (root-preserving isomorphism) tends to P{T(P,ρ,t)≃T}\mathbb P\{T(P,\rho,t) \simeq T\}P{T(P,ρ,t)≃T}. It is uniformly sparse if lim⁡l→∞lim sup⁡n1n∑i∣∂i∣ I(∣∂i∣≥l)=0\lim_{l\to\infty}\limsup_n \frac1n\sum_i |\partial i|\,\mathbb I(|\partial i| \ge l) = 0liml→∞​limsupn​n1​∑i​∣∂i∣I(∣∂i∣≥l)=0.

The cavity recursion acts on laws of a real random variable hhh:

h=dB+∑i=1K−1ξ(β,hi),ξ(β,h)=atanh⁡[tanh⁡βtanh⁡h],h \overset{d}{=} B + \sum_{i=1}^{K-1} \xi(\beta, h_i), \qquad \xi(\beta,h) = \operatorname{atanh}[\tanh\beta \tanh h],h=dB+i=1∑K−1​ξ(β,hi​),ξ(β,h)=atanh[tanhβtanhh],

with K∼ρK \sim \rhoK∼ρ and hih_ihi​ i.i.d. copies of hhh independent of KKK. For B>0B > 0B>0 it has a unique fixed point h∗h^*h∗ supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The Bethe functional of a law of hhh is

φh(β,B)=Pˉ2log⁡cosh⁡β−Pˉ2Elog⁡[1+tanh⁡βtanh⁡h1tanh⁡h2]+Elog⁡{eB∏i=1L[1+tanh⁡βtanh⁡hi]+e−B∏i=1L[1−tanh⁡βtanh⁡hi]},\varphi_h(\beta,B) = \frac{\bar P}{2}\log\cosh\beta - \frac{\bar P}{2}\mathbb E\log[1+\tanh\beta\tanh h_1\tanh h_2] + \mathbb E\log\Big\{e^B\prod_{i=1}^L[1+\tanh\beta\tanh h_i] + e^{-B}\prod_{i=1}^L[1-\tanh\beta\tanh h_i]\Big\},φh​(β,B)=2Pˉ​logcoshβ−2Pˉ​Elog[1+tanhβtanhh1​tanhh2​]+Elog{eBi=1∏L​[1+tanhβtanhhi​]+e−Bi=1∏L​[1−tanhβtanhhi​]},

with L∼PL \sim PL∼P independent of the hih_ihi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.4

Assume {Gn}\{G_n\}{Gn​} is uniformly sparse, converges locally to T(P,ρ,∞)T(P,\rho,\infty)T(P,ρ,∞), and ∑kkρk<∞\sum_k k\rho_k < \infty∑k​kρk​<∞. Then for every β≥0\beta \ge 0β≥0:

lim⁡n→∞ϕn(β,B)=φh∗(β,∣B∣)(B≠0),\lim_{n\to\infty}\phi_n(\beta,B) = \varphi_{h^*}(\beta,|B|) \quad (B \ne 0),n→∞lim​ϕn​(β,B)=φh∗​(β,∣B∣)(B=0),

and φh∗(β,B)\varphi_{h^*}(\beta,B)φh∗​(β,B) has a limit L0L_0L0​ as B↓0B \downarrow 0B↓0, with ϕn(β,0)→L0\phi_n(\beta,0) \to L_0ϕn​(β,0)→L0​. This is the paper's statement that the limit exists for every BBB, equals (2.9) for B>0B > 0B>0, is even in BBB, and is continuous at B=0B = 0B=0.

Milestones

  1. Tools on Ising models: Griffiths' inequality (Theorem 3.1), the GHS inequality (Theorem 3.2), the subtree-marginal identity (Lemma 4.1).
  2. Trees: the boundary effect on the root magnetization, E{mℓ,+−mℓ,0}≤M/ℓ\mathbb E\{m^{\ell,+}-m^{\ell,0}\} \le M/\ellE{mℓ,+−mℓ,0}≤M/ℓ (Lemma 4.3); the correlation factorization (Lemma 4.4); exponential decay of root-to-generation correlations (Corollary 4.5, (4.13)).
  3. The recursion: monotone convergence to the unique nonnegative fixed point (Lemma 2.3) and its Lipschitz dependence on β\betaβ in Monge–Kantorovich distance (Lemma 4.6).
  4. The Bethe functional: the second-order perturbation bound (Lemma 6.1, Remark 6.2) and its consequence, stationarity of φh\varphi_hφh​ at fixed points (Corollary 6.3, with corrected constant).
  5. From trees to graphs: edge averages converge to averages over the edge-rooted tree Tˉ(ρ,t)\bar T(\rho,t)Tˉ(ρ,t) (Lemma 6.4), and ∂βϕn=1n∑(i,j)∈En⟨xixj⟩n\partial_\beta\phi_n = \frac1n\sum_{(i,j)\in E_n}\langle x_ix_j\rangle_n∂β​ϕn​=n1​∑(i,j)∈En​​⟨xi​xj​⟩n​ (6.10).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.4 establishes the replica-symmetric (Bethe) formula for the ferromagnetic Ising model on the standard sparse random graph ensembles at all temperatures, including below the critical temperature tanh⁡βc=1/ρˉ\tanh\beta_c = 1/\bar\rhotanhβc​=1/ρˉ​ where the Gibbs measure on the limiting tree is not unique. It identifies the free energy of random regular graphs, Erdős–Rényi graphs and configuration models with arbitrary degree distributions of finite variance, and the derivative identities that follow give the limiting magnetization and energy per edge. The tree estimates of Section 4 also yield the convergence of belief propagation (the companion mission of this series).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved; nothing in this mission has been machine-checked before. A formal proof requires infrastructure that Lean's Mathlib does not have: Ising measures with boundary conditions, correlation inequalities, Galton–Watson trees as laws of offspring functions, local weak convergence of graph sequences, distributional fixed-point equations, and the Monge–Kantorovich distance on the real line. While stating the milestones, Corollary 6.3 turned out to be false as printed (the constant Pˉρˉ\bar P\bar\rhoPˉρˉ​ should be E[L2]\mathbb E[L^2]E[L2]; a counterexample is P=δ1P = \delta_1P=δ1​); the mission states the corrected version, which is what the paper's proof gives.

Difficulty

The obvious route through uniqueness of the Gibbs measure on the tree fails below the critical temperature: different boundary conditions give different limits, so local quantities are not determined by the local graph structure alone. The paper replaces uniqueness by insensitivity to positive boundary conditions when B>0B > 0B>0 (Lemma 4.3), which rests on Griffiths and GHS monotonicity and on averaging over the random tree; the deterministic statement is false. Passing from derivatives to the free entropy itself requires that the Bethe functional be stationary in the cavity law (Corollary 6.3), so that the β\betaβ-dependence of h∗h^*h∗ can be ignored. Finally, the case B=0B = 0B=0 at low temperature is reached only as a limit: there is no fixed-point characterization at B=0B = 0B=0.

Formalization scope

  • Spins are Booleans (+1+1+1 = true); edges are unordered and counted once. Graphs GnG_nGn​ live on Fin n.
  • A field Bi=+∞B_i = +\inftyBi​=+∞ (plus boundary) is encoded by pinning vertex iii to +1+1+1, never by a large real field.
  • Rooted trees are offspring functions List ℕ → ℕ in Ulam–Harris form; random trees are laws of offspring functions under the product σ-algebra. Galton–Watson trees are infinite product measures. Fields on trees are nonrandom functions of the vertex.
  • Laws of cavity fields are probability measures on R\mathbb RR; the recursion is a map on ProbabilityMeasure ℝ, and convergence in distribution is weak convergence. Expectations over L∼PL \sim PL∼P are series ∑lPl E[⋅]\sum_l P_l\,\mathbb E[\cdot]∑l​Pl​E[⋅] with product laws.
  • The Monge–Kantorovich distance takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Uniform sparsity is computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] so that an unbounded sequence does not get a junk lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup of 000.
  • The fixed point h∗h^*h∗ in the goal is the one supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), selected by choice; Lemma 2.3 shows it exists and is unique, so an arbitrary fixed point cannot be substituted. Theorem 2.4 is stated with β≥0\beta \ge 0β≥0 and asserts convergence for B>0B > 0B>0, B<0B < 0B<0 and B=0B = 0B=0 separately; the B=0B = 0B=0 clause asserts the existence of the one-sided limit rather than assuming it.

A complete development needs: Griffiths and GHS inequalities for finite Ising models (reusable for any ferromagnetic model); Ulam–Harris random trees with conditional independence; local weak convergence of graph sequences (reusable for random graph theory); distributional recursions with stochastic ordering; and the coupling characterization of the Wasserstein-1 distance on R\mathbb RR. Contributions of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the classical inequalities of Section 3 independent of this paper.

Selected references

  • A. Dembo, A. Montanari, Ising models on locally tree-like graphs, Ann. Appl. Probab. 20(2) (2010) 565–592. https://arxiv.org/abs/0804.4726v3 , https://doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP627
  • M. Mézard, G. Parisi, The Bethe lattice spin glass revisited, Eur. Phys. J. B 20 (2001) 217–233. https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00011099
  • R. B. Griffiths, C. A. Hurst, S. Sherman, Concavity of magnetization of an Ising ferromagnet in a positive external field, J. Math. Phys. 11 (1970) 790–795. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1665211
  • T. M. Liggett, Interacting Particle Systems, Springer, 1985 (Theorem IV.1.21, Griffiths' inequality). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4613-8542-4
  • A. Dembo, A. Montanari, N. Sun, Factor models on locally tree-like graphs, Ann. Probab. 41(6) (2013) 4162–4213. https://doi.org/10.1214/12-AOP828
27 thms1 active userReviewed
CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Graph Minors XXIII. Nash-Williams' Immersion Conjecture: In Every Infinite Sequence of Finite Graphs, Some Graph Is Immersed in a Later OneResearch Paper

Motivation

A well-quasi-order is a reflexive, transitive relation in which every infinite sequence x1,x2,…x_1,x_2,\dotsx1​,x2​,… contains a pair i<ji<ji<j with xi≤xjx_i\le x_jxi​≤xj​. Showing that a class of finite combinatorial objects is well-quasi-ordered by a containment relation is a standard way to prove that every property closed under that containment is characterised by finitely many forbidden objects. The best-known instance is the Graph Minor Theorem (Wagner's conjecture), completed by Robertson and Seymour in Graph Minors XX (JCTB 92, 2004).

Nash-Williams proposed the analogous conjecture for a different containment, immersion, in which edges of the smaller graph are mapped to edge-disjoint paths of the larger graph. Graph Minors XXIII (JCTB 100, 2010) proves it by deriving a general well-quasi-ordering theorem for labelled hypergraphs from the machinery of Graph Minors XX.

Timeline.

  • 1963 (published 1964): Nash-Williams conjectures that finite graphs are well-quasi-ordered by immersion ([Theory of Graphs and Its Applications, Smolenice 1963, pp. 83–84]).
  • 1965: Nash-Williams proposes a second, "strong" immersion conjecture, in which the image paths may not pass through images of non-incident vertices (Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 61).
  • 2004: Graph Minors XX proves Wagner's conjecture: finite graphs are well-quasi-ordered by minors.
  • 2010: Graph Minors XXIII proves the (weak) immersion conjecture together with a labelled hypergraph generalisation. The paper states that it does not prove the strong conjecture.

Setting

All graphs and hypergraphs are finite. A graph GGG has a vertex set V(G)V(G)V(G), an edge set E(G)E(G)E(G), and for each edge an unordered pair of ends; an edge with equal ends is a loop, and several edges may have the same ends (parallel edges). A graph is loopless if no edge is a loop. A path has at least one vertex and no repeated vertices; a circuit has at least one edge and no repeated vertices, so a loop and a pair of parallel edges are circuits.

An immersion of HHH in GGG is a map α\alphaα on V(H)∪E(H)V(H)\cup E(H)V(H)∪E(H) such that α\alphaα is injective on vertices; every non-loop edge eee with ends u,vu,vu,v goes to a path α(e)\alpha(e)α(e) of GGG with ends α(u),α(v)\alpha(u),\alpha(v)α(u),α(v); every loop at vvv goes to a circuit α(e)\alpha(e)α(e) of GGG through α(v)\alpha(v)α(v); and α(e)\alpha(e)α(e), α(f)\alpha(f)α(f) share no edge when e≠fe\ne fe=f.

A hypergraph GGG has finite sets V(G)V(G)V(G), E(G)E(G)E(G) and an incidence relation; V(e)V(e)V(e) is the set of ends of the edge eee, of any size. Write KVK_VKV​ for the complete graph on VVV. A collapse of GGG to HHH maps each vertex vvv of HHH to a non-null connected subgraph η(v)\eta(v)η(v) of KV(G)K_{V(G)}KV(G)​, pairwise vertex-disjoint, and each edge eee of HHH injectively to an edge η(e)\eta(e)η(e) of GGG, so that η(e)\eta(e)η(e) meets η(v)\eta(v)η(v) whenever eee is incident with vvv, and every edge xyxyxy of every η(v)\eta(v)η(v) is covered by some edge of GGG incident with both xxx and yyy. The transpose of a graph GGG is the hypergraph with vertex set E(G)E(G)E(G), edge set V(G)V(G)V(G) and the same incidence.

A quasi-order Ω\OmegaΩ is an ideal of Ω′\Omega'Ω′ if it is a sub-quasi-order closed downwards in Ω′\Omega'Ω′; a shadow is a tuple (Ω∞,m,Ωm,…,Ω1,R2,R1)(\Omega_\infty,m,\Omega_m,\dots,\Omega_1,R_2,R_1)(Ω∞​,m,Ωm​,…,Ω1​,R2​,R1​) of well-quasi-orders and finite sets, ordered lexicographically (Section 3 of the paper).

Formalization targets

Goal: Nash-Williams' immersion conjecture (1.1)

∀ (Gi)i≥1 finite graphs:∃ j>i≥1,  Gi is immersed in Gj.\forall\,(G_i)_{i\ge1}\text{ finite graphs}:\quad \exists\, j>i\ge1,\ \ G_i \text{ is immersed in } G_j .∀(Gi​)i≥1​ finite graphs:∃j>i≥1,  Gi​ is immersed in Gj​.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • 3.1 No sequence Ω1,Ω2,…\Omega_1,\Omega_2,\dotsΩ1​,Ω2​,… with Ω1\Omega_1Ω1​ a well-quasi-order and Ωi+1\Omega_{i+1}Ωi+1​ a proper ideal of Ωi\Omega_iΩi​ for all iii.
  • 3.2 No sequence of shadows with Σi+1<Σi\Sigma_{i+1}<\Sigma_iΣi+1​<Σi​ for all iii.
  • 1.6 For a well-quasi-order Ω\OmegaΩ and hypergraphs GiG_iGi​ with edge labels ϕi\phi_iϕi​, distinguished edges MiM_iMi​ of at most kkk ends and orderings μi(e)\mu_i(e)μi​(e) of their ends, some j>ij>ij>i admit a collapse η\etaη of GjG_jGj​ to GiG_iGi​ with ϕi(e)≤ϕj(η(e))\phi_i(e)\le\phi_j(\eta(e))ϕi​(e)≤ϕj​(η(e)), η(e)∈Mj  ⟺  e∈Mi\eta(e)\in M_j\iff e\in M_iη(e)∈Mj​⟺e∈Mi​, and preserving the orderings.
  • 1.4 The same with Mi=∅M_i=\emptysetMi​=∅: ϕi(e)≤ϕj(η(e))\phi_i(e)\le\phi_j(\eta(e))ϕi​(e)≤ϕj​(η(e)) for all edges.
  • 1.2 For every sequence of hypergraphs there is a collapse of some GjG_jGj​ to some earlier GiG_iGi​.
  • 1.3 For loopless graphs G,HG,HG,H, a collapse of the transpose of GGG to the transpose of HHH yields an immersion of HHH in GGG.
  • 1.5 Vertex-labelled loopless graphs: an immersion α\alphaα of GiG_iGi​ in GjG_jGj​ with ϕi(v)≤ϕj(α(v))\phi_i(v)\le\phi_j(\alpha(v))ϕi​(v)≤ϕj​(α(v)).
  • 1.7 (off the goal's path) A labelled form of Wagner's conjecture for directed graphs with loops.

Significance

The immersion theorem implies that every class of finite graphs closed under taking immersions is characterised by finitely many excluded immersions. Theorem 1.6 is stronger than both 1.1 and Wagner's conjecture: it handles hypergraphs, labels from an arbitrary well-quasi-order and ordered edges, which is the form in which the Graph Minors machinery is reused by later work.

All results here are proved in the paper. None of them has a machine-checked proof: Mathlib has well-quasi-orders and Higman's lemma, but not the Graph Minor Theorem or any notion of graph immersion. The value of this mission is a faithful formal statement of the immersion theorem and of the reductions the paper performs in Section 1 (1.3 and the passage from 1.6 to 1.4, 1.5 and 1.1), each of which can be formalized independently of Graph Minors XX, plus the order-theoretic lemmas 3.1 and 3.2.

Difficulty

The reductions in Section 1 (1.3, and the passages from 1.6 to 1.4, 1.5 and 1.1) are short on paper but require a working library of multigraph walks, paths and circuits, which Mathlib does not have for graphs with loops and parallel edges. The real difficulty is 1.6, which the paper derives from a theorem on patchworks of Graph Minors XX (its 2.2) together with tangle results of Graph Minors X, and therefore rests on the structure theory of the whole Graph Minors series. No route around that theory is known: when the hypergraphs are loopless graphs, a collapse of GjG_jGj​ to GiG_iGi​ makes GiG_iGi​ a minor of GjG_jGj​, so already 1.2 contains Wagner's conjecture. Nor does 1.2 alone give 1.1: loops cannot be routed through the transpose construction of 1.3, and the paper handles them by counting loops at each vertex as a label from the well-quasi-order N\mathbb NN, which is why the labelled forms 1.4–1.6 are needed.

Formalization scope

A graph is Graph V E with ends : E → Sym2 V; a hypergraph is Hypergraph V E with inc : E → V → Prop; each lives on its own finite types, and a sequence is a family indexed by ℕ (from 000; the paper's j>i≥1j>i\ge1j>i≥1 becomes i<ji<ji<j). Paths and circuits are walks with vertex and edge lists; the ends of a path are unordered. An immersion is the structure GraphImmersion H G; a collapse of GGG to HHH is Collapse G H, whose branch sets are Subgraphs of ⊤ : SimpleGraph V(G) (Mathlib's Subgraph.Connected includes non-emptiness). Well-quasi-orders are Mathlib's WellQuasiOrdered on a type with a preorder for 1.4–1.7, and QO.IsWQO on subsets of an ambient type for 3.1–3.2, where quasi-orders are compared by inclusion. Directed graphs for 1.7 are DirGraph V E with heads and tails.

Three trivializing formalizations are excluded: the collapse keeps condition (iv), so branch sets cannot use arbitrary pairs of vertices; immersion paths are edge-disjoint, not vertex-disjoint (which would give topological minors, not a well-quasi-order); and each graph lives on its own type, never all on one fixed finite type, which would make the goal a pigeonhole statement. Strong immersion is not stated.

Contributions welcome: proofs of 3.1, 3.2 and 1.3, the reductions 1.6 ⇒ 1.4 ⇒ 1.2 and 1.4 + 1.3 ⇒ 1.5 ⇒ 1.1, and library material on multigraph walks, paths and circuits, which is reusable beyond this mission. A proof of 1.6 would require formalizing the Graph Minors series.

Selected references

  • N. Robertson, P. Seymour, Graph Minors XXIII. Nash-Williams' immersion conjecture, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 100 (2010) 181–205 (authors' manuscript rev. April 18, 2011, used here). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jctb.2009.07.003
  • N. Robertson, P. Seymour, Graph Minors XX. Wagner's conjecture, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 92 (2004) 325–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jctb.2004.08.001
  • C. St. J. A. Nash-Williams, On well-quasi-ordering infinite trees, Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 61 (1965) 697–720. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100039062
12 thms1 active userReviewed
AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions 1: Rescaling Along an Ω-Path Gives the Network ISS Lyapunov Function maxᵢ σᵢ⁻¹(Vᵢ(xᵢ))Research Paper

Motivation

Large engineered systems — power grids, chemical plants, logistics and communication networks — are usually modelled as many interacting subsystems. A stability certificate for the whole network is rarely available directly, but each subsystem can often be analysed on its own, treating the states of its neighbours as disturbances. Input-to-state stability (ISS), introduced by Sontag (Sontag 1989), is the robustness notion that makes this decomposition work: it bounds the state by a decaying function of the initial condition plus a gain of the input. A small-gain theorem states that if the gains by which the subsystems influence each other are "small" in a suitable sense, the interconnection is again ISS.

Timeline. Jiang, Teel and Praly proved a nonlinear small-gain theorem for two ISS systems in trajectory form (1994), and Jiang, Mareels and Wang gave its Lyapunov version for two subsystems (1996). Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth extended the trajectory version to nnn subsystems with the condition Γ≱id\Gamma\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γ≥id on a nonlinear gain operator (2007). The paper of this mission (arXiv:0901.1842, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010) gives the Lyapunov version for nnn subsystems with general monotone aggregation of the gains, and constructs the network's ISS Lyapunov function explicitly.

Setting

The network consists of n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 subsystems

Σi: x˙i=fi(x1,…,xn,u),xi∈RNi, u∈RM,\Sigma_i:\ \dot x_i=f_i(x_1,\dots,x_n,u),\qquad x_i\in\mathbb R^{N_i},\ u\in\mathbb R^M,Σi​: x˙i​=fi​(x1​,…,xn​,u),xi​∈RNi​, u∈RM,

with overall state x=(x1T,…,xnT)T∈RNx=(x_1^T,\dots,x_n^T)^T\in\mathbb R^Nx=(x1T​,…,xnT​)T∈RN and dynamics x˙=f(x,u)\dot x=f(x,u)x˙=f(x,u), f=(f1,…,fn)f=(f_1,\dots,f_n)f=(f1​,…,fn​). ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm.

A function γ:R+→R+\gamma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+γ:R+​→R+​ is of class K\mathcal KK if it is continuous, strictly increasing and γ(0)=0\gamma(0)=0γ(0)=0, and of class K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ if moreover unbounded. A positive definite function α:R+→R+\alpha:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+α:R+​→R+​ is continuous with α(r)=0\alpha(r)=0α(r)=0 only at r=0r=0r=0. A Lyapunov function candidate V:Rd→R+V:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R_+V:Rd→R+​ is continuous, satisfies ψ1(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2(∥x∥)\psi_1(\|x\|)\le V(x)\le\psi_2(\|x\|)ψ1​(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2​(∥x∥) for some ψ1,ψ2∈K∞\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal K_\inftyψ1​,ψ2​∈K∞​, and is locally Lipschitz away from the origin.

A candidate VVV is an ISS Lyapunov function for x˙=f(x,u)\dot x=f(x,u)x˙=f(x,u) if there are γ∈K\gamma\in\mathcal Kγ∈K and a positive definite α\alphaα with

V(x)≥γ(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)V(x)\ge\gamma(\|u\|)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V(x)f(x,u)\le-\alpha(\|x\|)V(x)≥γ(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)

at every point of differentiability of VVV.

On R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​, v<wv<wv<w means vi<wiv_i<w_ivi​<wi​ for every iii. A monotone aggregation function (MAF) μ:R+m→R+\mu:\mathbb R^m_+\to\mathbb R_+μ:R+m​→R+​ is continuous, positive off the origin, strictly increasing for this strict order, and unbounded as ∥s∥→∞\|s\|\to\infty∥s∥→∞. Subsystem Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ has an ISS Lyapunov function ViV_iVi​ with gains γij∈K∞∪{0}\gamma_{ij}\in\mathcal K_\infty\cup\{0\}γij​∈K∞​∪{0}, γiu∈K∪{0}\gamma_{iu}\in\mathcal K\cup\{0\}γiu​∈K∪{0} and MAF μi\mu_iμi​ on R+n+1\mathbb R^{n+1}_+R+n+1​ if, wherever ViV_iVi​ is differentiable,

Vi(xi)≥μi(γi1(V1(x1)),…,γin(Vn(xn)),γiu(∥u∥)) ⟹ ∇Vi(xi)fi(x,u)≤−αi(∥xi∥).V_i(x_i)\ge\mu_i\big(\gamma_{i1}(V_1(x_1)),\dots,\gamma_{in}(V_n(x_n)),\gamma_{iu}(\|u\|)\big)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V_i(x_i)f_i(x,u)\le-\alpha_i(\|x_i\|).Vi​(xi​)≥μi​(γi1​(V1​(x1​)),…,γin​(Vn​(xn​)),γiu​(∥u∥)) ⟹ ∇Vi​(xi​)fi​(x,u)≤−αi​(∥xi​∥).

The diagonal gains vanish, γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0. The gain operators are

Γ‾μ(s,r)i=μi(γi1(s1),…,γin(sn),γiu(r)),Γμ(s)=Γ‾μ(s,0).\overline\Gamma_\mu(s,r)_i=\mu_i\big(\gamma_{i1}(s_1),\dots,\gamma_{in}(s_n),\gamma_{iu}(r)\big),\qquad\Gamma_\mu(s)=\overline\Gamma_\mu(s,0).Γμ​(s,r)i​=μi​(γi1​(s1​),…,γin​(sn​),γiu​(r)),Γμ​(s)=Γμ​(s,0).

An Ω-path with respect to Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​ is a continuous σ:R+→R+n\sigma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R^n_+σ:R+​→R+n​ with every σi∈K∞\sigma_i\in\mathcal K_\inftyσi​∈K∞​, such that each σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ is locally Lipschitz on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), its derivative lies in [c,C][c,C][c,C], 0<c<C0<c<C0<c<C, at its points of differentiability in any compact K⊂(0,∞)K\subset(0,\infty)K⊂(0,∞) (constants depending on KKK only), and Γμ(σ(r))<σ(r)\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r))<\sigma(r)Γμ​(σ(r))<σ(r) for all r>0r>0r>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

Assume each ViV_iVi​ is an ISS Lyapunov function for Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ with gains Γ\GammaΓ, γiu\gamma_{iu}γiu​ and MAFs μi\mu_iμi​; σ\sigmaσ is an Ω-path with respect to Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​; φ∈K∞\varphi\in\mathcal K_\inftyφ∈K∞​ satisfies

Γ‾μ(σ(r),φ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0;\overline\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r),\varphi(r))<\sigma(r)\qquad\forall r>0;Γμ​(σ(r),φ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0;

and each fif_ifi​ is continuous. Then

V(x)=max⁡i=1,…,nσi−1(Vi(xi))V(x)=\max_{i=1,\dots,n}\sigma_i^{-1}(V_i(x_i))V(x)=i=1,…,nmax​σi−1​(Vi​(xi​))

is an ISS Lyapunov function for the network, with gain φ−1\varphi^{-1}φ−1:

V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)V(x)\ge\varphi^{-1}(\|u\|)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V(x)f(x,u)\le-\alpha(\|x\|)V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)

for a positive definite α\alphaα. The rate α\alphaα is existential and is not fixed by the statement.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof on pp. 14–15:

  1. VVV is a Lyapunov function candidate.
  2. The maximum rule (5.7) for Clarke generalized gradients.
  3. The chain of inequalities showing that the subsystem trigger holds strictly at every active index.
  4. The Clarke-gradient form (5.8) of the subsystem decrease.
  5. The chain rule for σi−1∘Vi\sigma_i^{-1}\circ V_iσi−1​∘Vi​, with multipliers bounded away from zero.
  6. Positivity of the rate: active blocks on a sphere stay away from the origin.
  7. The uniform decrease (5.9).

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.3 converts a small-gain condition into an explicit Lyapunov function for the network. Combined with the converse ISS Lyapunov theorem, it gives ISS of the interconnection, and with zero input it gives global asymptotic stability. It covers additive, maximum-type and multiplicative aggregation of gains, and it handles nnn subsystems without iterating a two-system result. A second main result of the paper (Theorem 5.2, a separate mission) supplies the Ω-path from the condition Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id. Together they reduce the stability of a network to a property of its gain operator.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper. As far as we know, no ISS notion, small-gain theorem or monotone aggregation framework has been machine-checked in Lean. This mission produces a Lean statement of the construction, and of its nonsmooth-analysis steps, against which a complete proof can be checked. It also corrects a misprint in the theorem's implication (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The function VVV is a maximum of rescaled functions and is not differentiable on the set where two indices are active, even when every ViV_iVi​ is smooth. The subsystem hypotheses only control derivatives at points where the corresponding ViV_iVi​ is differentiable. At a point where VVV is differentiable, the active ViV_iVi​ may not be. So the obvious argument — differentiate the active branch and apply (2.7) — fails, and the decrease must be transported through generalized gradients. A second obstacle is uniformity: the rate α\alphaα must depend on ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥ alone. This requires the lower derivative bound in the Ω-path definition and a compactness argument on spheres. Dropping the lower bound breaks the theorem, because σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ could flatten and remove the decrease.

Formalization scope

Blocks are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (N i)). The network state is the L2L^2L2 product PiLp 2 (the Euclidean norm, not the sup norm), and the input is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin M). Subsystems are indexed by Fin n (0-based) with n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Gains, MAFs, Ω-paths and rates live on ℝ≥0. Lyapunov functions are real-valued with an explicit nonnegativity clause. The strict order on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ is a named predicate, not Lean's Pi <. The inverses σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ and φ−1\varphi^{-1}φ−1 are explicit arguments with both compositions the identity. Every derivative is guarded by a differentiability hypothesis. Clarke's generalized gradient (2.5) is the published ClarkeGradients.Shared.generalizedGradient on the blocks, and the same definition restated on a general Hilbert space for RN\mathbb R^NRN and R\mathbb RR.

Implicit hypotheses made explicit:

  • Continuity of every fif_ifi​. It is the regularity behind the equivalence of the derivative form (2.4) and the Clarke form (2.6) of the decrease condition, which the proof uses.
  • γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0. The paper's convention.
  • Compatibility of Γ\GammaΓ and μ\muμ. Remark 2.6, the standing assumption from p. 8 on; it imposes nothing on a zero row of Γ\GammaΓ.

Corrected statement. The printed implication (5.5) has the trigger V(x)≥max⁡iφ−1(γiu(∥u∥))V(x)\ge\max_i\varphi^{-1}(\gamma_{iu}(\|u\|))V(x)≥maxi​φ−1(γiu​(∥u∥)). With Γ‾μ\overline\Gamma_\muΓμ​ as defined in (2.9), and as the paper's corollaries use it, that implication is false. A counterexample is one subsystem x˙=−x+u/6\dot x=-x+u/6x˙=−x+u/6 with V1=∣x∣V_1=|x|V1​=∣x∣, γ1u(s)=s/10\gamma_{1u}(s)=s/10γ1u​(s)=s/10, μ1(a,b)=a+2b\mu_1(a,b)=a+2bμ1​(a,b)=a+2b and σ=φ=id\sigma=\varphi=\mathrm{id}σ=φ=id, at x=1x=1x=1, u=10u=10u=10. The proof's chain of inequalities writes φ(r)\varphi(r)φ(r) where (2.9) gives γiu(φ(r))\gamma_{iu}(\varphi(r))γiu​(φ(r)). The goal keeps (2.9) and uses the trigger V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥)V(x)\ge\varphi^{-1}(\|u\|)V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥), under which the proof closes.

The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable. An example is n=2n=2n=2 with Vi(xi)=∥xi∥V_i(x_i)=\|x_i\|Vi​(xi​)=∥xi​∥, μi=max⁡\mu_i=\maxμi​=max, γ12=γ21=s/4\gamma_{12}=\gamma_{21}=s/4γ12​=γ21​=s/4, γiu=s/2\gamma_{iu}=s/2γiu​=s/2, σ(r)=(r,r)\sigma(r)=(r,r)σ(r)=(r,r), φ=id\varphi=\mathrm{id}φ=id and dynamics fi=−xif_i=-x_ifi​=−xi​. The conclusion is a decrease inequality at the points of differentiability of VVV for an existential positive definite rate, so it cannot be met by a vacuous choice: α\alphaα must be positive away from zero. Trajectory-level ISS (Theorem 2.3, cited by the paper) and the corollaries that conclude ISS are out of scope.

Reusable infrastructure: comparison classes, monotone aggregation functions, gain operators and Ω-paths (shared with the Ω-path mission), and the maximum and chain rules for Clarke gradients. Proofs of the nonsmooth calculus milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • S. N. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010; preprint arXiv:0901.1842v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.1842
  • S. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, An ISS small gain theorem for general networks, Math. Control Signals Systems 19, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00498-007-0014-8
  • Z.-P. Jiang, A. R. Teel, L. Praly, Small-gain theorem for ISS systems and applications, Math. Control Signals Systems 7, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01211469
  • Z.-P. Jiang, I. M. Y. Mareels, Y. Wang, A Lyapunov formulation of the nonlinear small-gain theorem for interconnected ISS systems, Automatica 32(8), 1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-1098(96)00051-9
  • E. D. Sontag, Smooth stabilization implies coprime factorization, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34(4), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.28018
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
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🏆Completed
Number Theory·Captain: moona3k

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of At Most 4401 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

This entry records a completed elementary result in the campaign on odd numbers as sums of primes: every odd natural number greater than 1 is a sum of at most 4401 primes. It illustrates how an additive density estimate can reduce the number of prime summands in a Schnirelmann argument.

Exact target

For every natural number nnn, if nnn is odd and 1<n1<n1<n, there is a multiset sss of primes with s.card≤4401s.card\le 4401s.card≤4401 and s.sum=ns.sum=ns.sum=n. Repeated primes are allowed. The bound applies to every such nnn, not only sufficiently large integers.

The goal references the existing proved 4401 theorem. Its statement is the campaign template instantiated with 4401.

Supporting results and proof route

The two supporting references are the density bound and Mann's theorem, both already proved.

Let B={(p−3)/2:p is an odd prime}B=\{(p-3)/2:p\text{ is an odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p is an odd prime} and A=B+BA=B+BA=B+B. The density estimate gives σ(A)≥1/2200\sigma(A)\ge 1/2200σ(A)≥1/2200. Mann's theorem gives σ(hA)≥min⁡(1,hσ(A))\sigma(hA)\ge\min(1,h\sigma(A))σ(hA)≥min(1,hσ(A)), so h=1100h=1100h=1100 yields density at least 1/21/21/2. The sumset cover argument then produces 4400 odd prime summands, with one additional 3 to obtain the required parity. Explicit sums of 2s and 3s handle the remaining small and medium ranges. These steps are included in the accepted goal proof; they are not unfinished milestones.

Verification and attribution

All three referenced theorems have ACCEPTED proof submissions under the account moona3k, are marked Proved, and use Mathlib revision 0df444a360eaa60ab8c11dca51a86af692955474. No new Lean statement or duplicate theorem is introduced by this proposal.

The density theorem's published source credits an extraction from the accepted 6101 proof. Mann's theorem is the classical additive density theorem of H. B. Mann; the accepted formalization follows the Dyson transform presentation cited in its theorem record. This entry assembles those existing results into the 4401 bound.

Campaign context

The 4401 bound was an intermediate improvement on 6101. It is not the current campaign frontier: the campaign now includes a proved bound of 27. This proposal preserves the earlier result and its proof route without claiming a new literature result or a new record.

Odd numbers as sums of primes campaign

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🏆Completed
CombinatoricsProbabilityQuantum Information+1·Captain: sattath

A Quantum Lovász Local Lemma (Ambainis, Kempe, Sattath)Research Paper

Status: complete. This mission records a finished formalization rather than an open call for work. Every statement below, including the goal, was uploaded together with a proof that the platform has verified, so there is nothing left to prove.

Motivation

The Lovász Local Lemma (LLL) is a basic tool of the probabilistic method. It shows that a collection of rare "bad" events can all be avoided simultaneously, even when the events are not independent, provided each event depends on only a few others. Its best-known application is to satisfiability: a kkk-CNF formula in which every variable appears in few clauses has a satisfying assignment.

Quantum satisfiability (kkk-QSAT) is the quantum analogue of kkk-SAT. Clauses are replaced by projectors acting on kkk qubits, and the question is whether some nonzero state is annihilated by all of them, equivalently whether the corresponding local Hamiltonian is frustration-free. Bravyi showed that kkk-QSAT is QMA1\mathsf{QMA}_1QMA1​-complete for k≥4k \ge 4k≥4, so sufficient conditions for satisfiability are of interest in quantum complexity theory and in many-body physics. Ambainis, Kempe and Sattath (arXiv:0911.1696, J. ACM 2012) proved a quantum version of the LLL in which probability is replaced by relative dimension, and derived a sufficient condition for kkk-QSAT instances to be satisfiable.

Timeline

  • 1975. Erdős and Lovász introduce the local lemma, in the symmetric form, to colour hypergraphs (Infinite and Finite Sets, 1975).
  • 1977. Spencer publishes the general (asymmetric) form, credited to Lovász, and applies it to Ramsey numbers (Discrete Math. 20, 1977).
  • 1985. Shearer determines the optimal dependency condition, in terms of the independence polynomial of the dependency graph (Combinatorica 5, 1985).
  • 2009 to 2010. Moser gives a constructive proof for kkk-SAT (arXiv:0810.4812, STOC 2009); Moser and Tardos make the general lemma constructive (arXiv:0903.0544, J. ACM 2010).
  • 2011. Kolipaka and Szegedy show that the Moser and Tardos algorithm works throughout Shearer's region, giving an algorithmic proof of Shearer's bound (Moser and Tardos meet Lovász, STOC 2011, 235 to 244).
  • 2009 to 2012. Ambainis, Kempe and Sattath prove the quantum local lemma and its kkk-QSAT corollaries (arXiv:0911.1696, J. ACM 59(5):24, 2012).
  • 2013. Arad and Sattath (arXiv:1310.7766) and, independently, Schwarz, Cubitt and Verstraete (arXiv:1311.6474) give constructive versions for commuting projectors.
  • 2016. Sattath, Morampudi, Laumann and Moessner extend Shearer's criterion to the quantum setting and conjecture that it is tight (arXiv:1509.07766, PNAS 2016).
  • 2017. He, Li, Liu, Wang and Xia show that the abstract and variable versions of the local lemma differ: Shearer's bound, tight for the abstract version, is not tight for the variable version (the setting of kkk-SAT, where events are determined by independent variables) for instance when the base graph of the event-variable graph has an induced cycle of length at least 4, while there is no gap when it is a tree (arXiv:1709.05143, FOCS 2017).
  • 2017. Gilyén and Sattath give an efficient quantum algorithm for the non-commuting case under a spectral gap condition (arXiv:1611.08571, FOCS 2017).
  • 2018 to 2019. He, Li, Sun and Zhang prove this conjecture: Shearer's bound is tight for the quantum local lemma, so in this respect the quantum lemma behaves like the abstract version rather than the variable one; they also show that the tight regions of the quantum lemma and of its commuting variant differ in general (arXiv:1804.07055, STOC 2019).

Setting

Let VVV be a nonzero finite-dimensional vector space. For a subspace X⊆VX \subseteq VX⊆V, the relative dimension is

R(X)=dim⁡Xdim⁡V.R(X) = \frac{\dim X}{\dim V}.R(X)=dimVdimX​.

It plays the role of probability: subspaces replace events, intersection replaces conjunction, and R(X∣Y)=dim⁡(X∩Y)/dim⁡YR(X \mid Y) = \dim(X \cap Y)/\dim YR(X∣Y)=dim(X∩Y)/dimY replaces conditional probability.

Subspaces X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ have dependency sets Γ(1),…,Γ(n)⊆{1,…,n}\Gamma(1), \dots, \Gamma(n) \subseteq \{1, \dots, n\}Γ(1),…,Γ(n)⊆{1,…,n} when, for every iii and every set SSS of indices with i∉Si \notin Si∈/S and S∩Γ(i)=∅S \cap \Gamma(i) = \emptysetS∩Γ(i)=∅,

R(Xi∩⋂j∈SXj)=R(Xi) R(⋂j∈SXj).R\Big(X_i \cap \bigcap_{j \in S} X_j\Big) = R(X_i)\, R\Big(\bigcap_{j \in S} X_j\Big).R(Xi​∩j∈S⋂​Xj​)=R(Xi​)R(j∈S⋂​Xj​).

In words, XiX_iXi​ is independent, for relative dimension, of every intersection of subspaces outside its dependency set.

A kkk-QSAT instance on nnn qubits is a family of projectors Π1,…,Πm\Pi_1, \dots, \Pi_mΠ1​,…,Πm​, each acting on a set of kkk qubits and extended by the identity on the others. It is satisfiable if a nonzero state lies in the kernel of every Πi\Pi_iΠi​.

The formalization proves the local lemma once, for an abstract valuation: a real function RRR on a bounded lattice that is nonnegative, monotone and modular, R(x)+R(y)=R(x∨y)+R(x∧y)R(x) + R(y) = R(x \vee y) + R(x \wedge y)R(x)+R(y)=R(x∨y)+R(x∧y), with R(⊤)=1R(\top) = 1R(⊤)=1 and R(⊥)=0R(\bot) = 0R(⊥)=0. Relative dimension on subspaces and the uniform probability on subsets of a finite set are the two instances used.

Formalization targets

Goal: the quantum local lemma (Theorem 14)

Let X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be subspaces with dependency sets Γ(i)\Gamma(i)Γ(i), and let 0≤yi<10 \le y_i < 10≤yi​<1 satisfy R(Xi)≥1−yi∏j∈Γ(i)(1−yj)R(X_i) \ge 1 - y_i \prod_{j \in \Gamma(i)} (1 - y_j)R(Xi​)≥1−yi​∏j∈Γ(i)​(1−yj​) for every iii. Then

R(⋂i=1nXi) ≥ ∏i=1n(1−yi).R\Big(\bigcap_{i=1}^{n} X_i\Big) \ \ge\ \prod_{i=1}^{n} (1 - y_i).R(i=1⋂n​Xi​) ≥ i=1∏n​(1−yi​).

Other formalized results

All of these are proved on Prove2Me and can be found by name (tag quantum-lll):

  1. The same statement for any valuation on a bounded lattice (Theorem 14, abstract form): QLLL.Valuation.lll.
  2. The symmetric quantum local lemma: if R(Xi)≥1−pR(X_i) \ge 1 - pR(Xi​)≥1−p, each XiX_iXi​ has at most ddd dependencies and p⋅e⋅(d+1)≤1p \cdot e \cdot (d + 1) \le 1p⋅e⋅(d+1)≤1, then R(⋂iXi)>0R(\bigcap_i X_i) > 0R(⋂i​Xi​)>0 (Theorem 4): QLLL.quantum_lll_symmetric.
  3. The classical Erdős and Lovász local lemma, asymmetric and symmetric (Theorems 13 and 1), for the uniform probability on a finite set: QLLL.SAT.classical_lll, QLLL.SAT.classical_lll_symmetric.
  4. kkk-SAT: a kkk-CNF formula in which every variable appears in at most 2k/(ek)2^k/(e k)2k/(ek) clauses is satisfiable (Corollary 2): QLLL.SAT.sat_of_degree_le.
  5. kkk-QSAT: an instance of rank-≤r\le r≤r constraints in which every qubit appears in at most 2k/(erk)2^k/(e r k)2k/(erk) constraints is satisfiable (Corollary 16): QLLL.PiQSAT.inf_ker_extendOp_ne_bot on Mathlib's tensor product, and QLLL.QSAT.satisfiable_of_degree_le for orthogonal projectors.
  6. Two results beyond the paper: infinite kkk-SAT (QLLL.SAT.exists_assignment_forall), and the local lemma for infinite index sets under a continuity hypothesis (QLLL.lll_iInf).

Significance

The quantum local lemma gives a sufficient condition for kkk-QSAT satisfiability that depends only on the local structure of the instance: the rank of the projectors and the number of projectors per qubit. It shows that the classical criterion survives the passage from events to subspaces, even though subspaces do not form a distributive lattice. Later work on constructive and tight versions, listed in the timeline, builds on this statement.

All results of this mission are proved and machine-checked. The Lean development was written as a complete formalization of the paper, and every statement here was uploaded together with a proof verified by the platform. What the mission adds is a reusable, Mathlib-based library: the local lemma for abstract valuations, its classical and quantum instances, kkk-QSAT stated on Mathlib's tensor product of qubits, and linear algebra on intersections of tensor products of subspaces that Mathlib does not yet contain. Mathlib currently has no form of the Lovász Local Lemma.

Difficulty

The classical proof uses complements of events and the identity Pr⁡(A)+Pr⁡(Ac)=1\Pr(A) + \Pr(A^c) = 1Pr(A)+Pr(Ac)=1, together with the distributive law for events. Subspaces satisfy neither in general: the lattice of subspaces is modular but not distributive, and the orthogonal complement does not distribute over intersections. The argument has to be rebuilt from the properties of relative dimension that do hold. For kkk-QSAT, the further difficulty is to show that constraints acting on disjoint sets of qubits are independent for relative dimension, which requires computing intersections and dimensions of tensor products of subspaces.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in the Lean statements:

  1. The local lemma is stated for nnn indexed subspaces (or lattice elements) and real weights 0≤yi<10 \le y_i < 10≤yi​<1. An index is never in its own dependency set's complement: independence is required from intersections over sets SSS that avoid both Γ(i)\Gamma(i)Γ(i) and iii itself.
  2. Independence is stated in product form, R(X∩Y)=R(X)R(Y)R(X \cap Y) = R(X) R(Y)R(X∩Y)=R(X)R(Y), which agrees with the conditional form of the paper whenever the conditional relative dimension is defined.
  3. The quantum lemma holds over any field and requires VVV to be nonzero and finite-dimensional.
  4. The classical lemmas are stated for good events (complements of bad events) under the uniform probability on a finite nonempty set.
  5. Qubits: the main kkk-QSAT statement uses Mathlib's tensor product ⨂jC2\bigotimes_{j} \mathbb{C}^2⨂j​C2 and allows arbitrary local operators of rank at most rrr, since only the dimension of their kernels enters. A second form, on functions from bit strings to C\mathbb{C}C, requires the constraints to be orthogonal projectors (idempotent and self-adjoint). Self-adjointness cannot yet be stated on Mathlib's nnn-fold tensor product, which has no inner product in the pinned Mathlib version.
  6. Degree conditions are integers: "at most 2k/(erk)2^k/(e r k)2k/(erk) projectors per qubit" is written as at most D′+1D' + 1D′+1 with r2k⋅e⋅(kD′+1)≤1\frac{r}{2^k} \cdot e \cdot (k D' + 1) \le 12kr​⋅e⋅(kD′+1)≤1, which the paper's hypothesis implies.

An infinite version of kkk-QSAT is deliberately not included. Nonzero subspaces can have all finite intersections nonzero and zero total intersection, so the infinite statement has to be phrased with compatible families of density matrices, and the current Lean formulation does not yet restrict the constraints to positive operators.

The blueprint of the formalization, linking every paper statement to its Lean declaration, is at sattath.github.io/Quantum-Lovasz-Local-Lemma/blueprint. Natural extensions, outside the scope of this mission: the orthogonal-projector form of Corollary 16 on Mathlib's tensor product once inner products on nnn-fold tensor products are available, Shearer-type conditions, and a measure-theoretic classical local lemma on general probability spaces.

A note from the contributor

This is my first contribution to Prove2Me, so the definitions, statements, proofs and descriptions may fall short of what an experienced contributor would produce. Some choices may be unidiomatic, some lemmas may duplicate Mathlib, and the split into entries could be better. Every proof is checked by Lean, so the theorems are correct as stated; the question is whether they are stated in the most useful way.

Selected references

  • P. Erdős and L. Lovász, Problems and results on 3-chromatic hypergraphs and some related questions, Infinite and Finite Sets, Colloq. Math. Soc. János Bolyai 10, 1975, 609 to 627.
  • J. Spencer, Asymptotic lower bounds for Ramsey functions, Discrete Math. 20, 1977, 69 to 76.
  • J. B. Shearer, On a problem of Spencer, Combinatorica 5, 1985, 241 to 245.
  • R. A. Moser, A constructive proof of the Lovász local lemma, STOC 2009. arXiv:0810.4812
  • R. A. Moser and G. Tardos, A constructive proof of the general Lovász local lemma, J. ACM 57(2), 2010. arXiv:0903.0544
  • A. Ambainis, J. Kempe and O. Sattath, A quantum Lovász local lemma, J. ACM 59(5):24, 2012. arXiv:0911.1696
  • I. Arad and O. Sattath, A constructive quantum Lovász local lemma for commuting projectors, 2013. arXiv:1310.7766
  • M. Schwarz, T. S. Cubitt and F. Verstraete, An information-theoretic proof of the constructive commutative quantum Lovász local lemma, 2013. arXiv:1311.6474
  • O. Sattath, S. C. Morampudi, C. R. Laumann and R. Moessner, When a local Hamiltonian must be frustration-free, PNAS 113(23), 2016. arXiv:1509.07766
  • A. Gilyén and O. Sattath, On preparing ground states of gapped Hamiltonians: an efficient quantum Lovász local lemma, FOCS 2017. arXiv:1611.08571
  • K. He, Q. Li, X. Sun and J. Zhang, Quantum Lovász local lemma: Shearer's bound is tight, STOC 2019. arXiv:1804.07055
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 27 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Klimov, Pil'tai, Sheptitskaya (1972): 115115115; Vaughan (1977): 272727; Riesel–Vaughan (1983): 191919 for all integers. Vaughan's and Riesel–Vaughan's bounds use zero-based prime-counting estimates (Rosser–Schoenfeld).
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's earlier values (100 001100\,001100001 down to 414141) came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. The 414141 entry used the sharp singular-series weight K(s)=∏p∣s, p>2p−1p−2K(s) = \prod_{p \mid s,\, p > 2} \frac{p-1}{p-2}K(s)=∏p∣s,p>2​p−2p−1​ in a pointwise sieve bound, and its large range stopped near 393939 because the pointwise bound loses the spread of the singular series. This entry replaces that large range by Riesel and Vaughan's weighted argument, which divides out the singular series exactly, using Dirichlet characters and the large sieve. Rosser–Schoenfeld's zero-based bound is replaced throughout by Chebyshev's elementary ψ(x)≥0.9212x−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge 0.9212x - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥0.9212x−5logx+5. No zeta- or LLL-function zero input is used, and the result matches Vaughan's 272727.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤27, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 27,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤27, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 272727 filled in.

How the bound arises

Let B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime} and A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B. We show σ(A)≥1/13\sigma(A) \ge 1/13σ(A)≥1/13, then conclude with Mann's theorem. Let r(s)r(s)r(s) be the number of ordered pairs of odd primes with p+q=sp + q = sp+q=s. Since #(A∩[1,N])+1≥#{s≤2N+6:r(s)>0}\#(A \cap [1,N]) + 1 \ge \#\{s \le 2N+6 : r(s) > 0\}#(A∩[1,N])+1≥#{s≤2N+6:r(s)>0}, it suffices to show #{s≤y:r(s)>0}≥y/25\#\{s \le y : r(s) > 0\} \ge y/25#{s≤y:r(s)>0}≥y/25 for large yyy. Write L=log⁡yL = \log yL=logy and C=2∏p>2(1−(p−1)−2)≤1.3217C = 2\prod_{p>2}(1 - (p-1)^{-2}) \le 1.3217C=2∏p>2​(1−(p−1)−2)≤1.3217 for the twin-prime constant.

  1. Chebyshev's constant a≈0.9212a \approx 0.9212a≈0.9212. For x≥30x \ge 30x≥30, ψ(x)≥ax−5log⁡x+5\psi(x) \ge ax - 5\log x + 5ψ(x)≥ax−5logx+5. Through B⊆AB \subseteq AB⊆A this covers L<23L < 23L<23.
  2. Small-shift range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, Lemma 8), 23≤L≤30023 \le L \le 30023≤L≤300. With the first 150150150 odd primes as shifts and Siebert's prime-pair bound 8C K(d) x/log⁡2x8C\,K(d)\,x/\log^2 x8CK(d)x/log2x (platform theorem TaoFivePrimes.siebert_prime_pair_bound), Cauchy–Schwarz gives #{s≤y:r(s)>0}≥y/25\#\{s \le y : r(s) > 0\} \ge y/25#{s≤y:r(s)>0}≥y/25. The kernel sum ∑K(p1−p2)≤19496\sum K(p_1 - p_2) \le 19496∑K(p1​−p2​)≤19496 is a finite computation.
  3. Large range (Riesel–Vaughan 1983, §8), L≥300L \ge 300L≥300. Weight each nnn by w(n)=∏p∣n, p>2p−2p−1w(n) = \prod_{p \mid n,\, p > 2} \frac{p-2}{p-1}w(n)=∏p∣n,p>2​p−1p−2​, which cancels the singular series. Then #{s:r(s)>0}≥∑r(n)w(n)/max⁡r(n)w(n)\#\{s : r(s) > 0\} \ge \sum r(n) w(n) / \max r(n) w(n)#{s:r(s)>0}≥∑r(n)w(n)/maxr(n)w(n). The weighted sum is bounded below through Dirichlet characters modulo odd ddd, Gauss sums and the platform's weighted large sieve (MVSieve.primitive_character_large_sieve, MVSieve.large_sieve_weight_lower), with Chebyshev's bound in place of Rosser–Schoenfeld. This gives y/25y/25y/25 with room to spare.
  4. Mann's theorem turns 13 σ(A)≥113\,\sigma(A) \ge 113σ(A)≥1 into 13A=Z≥013A = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}13A=Z≥0​. So every odd n≥81n \ge 81n≥81 is a sum of 262626 odd primes plus one 333; odd 55≤n<8155 \le n < 8155≤n<81 use twos and threes to make exactly 272727, and smaller nnn use one 333 and twos. Hence K=2⋅13+1=27K = 2 \cdot 13 + 1 = 27K=2⋅13+1=27.

Significance

The argument reaches Vaughan's 272727 with no zeros of ζ\zetaζ or LLL-functions and no prime number theorem. New reusable components:

  1. Riesel and Vaughan's singular-series-weighted large range, formalized with an elementary Chebyshev bound.
  2. The Riesel–Vaughan small-shift range driven by Siebert's bound, down to density 1/251/251/25.

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 272727 in place of the value. The proof imports two platform theorems: RV27.middle_range (the small-shift range, 23≤log⁡n≤30023 \le \log n \le 30023≤logn≤300) and RV27.large_range (log⁡n≥300\log n \ge 300logn≥300), and Schnir.basis_of_density (Mann's theorem). Those rest on TaoFivePrimes.siebert_prime_pair_bound, the PrimePairSieve nodes and the MVSieve large-sieve nodes.

Selected references

  • H. Riesel, R. C. Vaughan, On sums of primes, Ark. Mat. 21 (1983), 45–74.
  • R. C. Vaughan, On the estimation of Schnirelman's constant, J. Reine Angew. Math. 290 (1977), 93–108.
  • H. L. Montgomery, R. C. Vaughan, The large sieve, Mathematika 20 (1973), 119–134.
  • H.-E. Siebert, Montgomery's weighted sieve for dimension two, Monatsh. Math. 82 (1976), 327–336.
  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • Chebyshev's lower bound as formalized in PrimeNumberTheoremAnd (PrimeNumberTheoremAnd/IEANTN/Chebyshev.lean).
  • Explicit improvement of the 414141 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 272727; not peer reviewed.
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Experimental DesignOperations ResearchProbability+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling II: The MSE of the Optimal Stochastic Kriging Predictor Exceeds the Kriging MSE by a Positive Definite FormResearch Paper

Motivation

A simulation metamodel is a cheap surrogate for an expensive stochastic simulation: after running the simulation at a few design settings, one predicts the mean response at settings never simulated. Kriging, the interpolation method of geostatistics and of the design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE; Sacks, Welch, Mitchell and Wynn 1989; Santner, Williams and Notz 2003), treats the unknown response surface as a realization of a random field and predicts by the best linear predictor. Kriging was developed for deterministic computer codes, where an observation is the exact response. A stochastic simulation returns the response plus sampling noise, and the noise may be correlated across settings when the experimenter uses common random numbers (CRN).

Ankenman, Nelson and Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling (Proc. 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 362–370), extend kriging to this setting. The mission formalizes §2 of that paper: the form of the optimal linear predictor, called stochastic kriging, and the formula for its mean squared error, which shows how much the simulation noise costs. The source used throughout is the WSC 2008 proceedings paper, not the later Operations Research 58(2) 2010 article, whose numbering differs.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) and a set of design settings x\mathbf xx. On replication j=1,2,…j=1,2,\dotsj=1,2,… at setting x\mathbf xx the simulation outputs (display (3), with constant trend)

Yj(x)=β0+M(x)+εj(x).\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x)+\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x).Yj​(x)=β0​+M(x)+εj​(x).

The constant β0\beta_0β0​ is the overall mean. M\mathsf MM is a mean-zero random field, the extrinsic uncertainty imposed by the modeller. εj(x)\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x)εj​(x) is mean-zero sampling noise, the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulation; its variance may depend on x\mathbf xx, and noises at different settings may be correlated (CRN). All of these have finite second moments, and the field is uncorrelated with the noise.

An experiment design runs ni≥1n_i\ge1ni​≥1 replications at each of kkk design points x1,…,xk\mathbf x_1,\dots,\mathbf x_kx1​,…,xk​. The data are the sample means (4)

Yˉ(xi)=1ni∑j=1niYj(xi),Yˉ=(Yˉ(x1),…,Yˉ(xk))⊤,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i),\qquad\bar{\mathcal Y}=(\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_1),\dots,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_k))^\top,Yˉ​(xi​)=ni​1​j=1∑ni​​Yj​(xi​),Yˉ​=(Yˉ​(x1​),…,Yˉ​(xk​))⊤,

and the target at a point x0\mathbf x_0x0​ is the noise-free response Y(x0)=β0+M(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​)=β0​+M(x0​).

Write ΣM(x,x′)=Cov[M(x),M(x′)]\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x,\mathbf x')=\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x),\mathsf M(\mathbf x')]ΣM​(x,x′)=Cov[M(x),M(x′)]. Then ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ is the k×kk\times kk×k matrix of these covariances at the design points, ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅) is the vector (Cov[M(x0),M(xi)])i(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{i}(Cov[M(x0​),M(xi​)])i​, and Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is the k×kk\times kk×k covariance matrix of the averaged noises ∑j=1niεj(xi)/ni\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x_i)/n_i∑j=1ni​​εj​(xi​)/ni​. A linear predictor (5) is λ0+λ⊤Yˉ\lambda_0+\lambda^\top\bar{\mathcal Y}λ0​+λ⊤Yˉ​ with arbitrary weights (λ0,λ)∈R×Rk(\lambda_0,\lambda)\in\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^k(λ0​,λ)∈R×Rk; its mean squared error is E[(λ0+λ⊤Yˉ−Y(x0))2]\mathrm E[(\lambda_0+\lambda^\top\bar{\mathcal Y}-\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0))^2]E[(λ0​+λ⊤Yˉ​−Y(x0​))2]. The optimal MSE MSE⋆\mathrm{MSE}^\starMSE⋆ is the infimum of this quantity over all weights.

Formalization targets

Goal: display (7)

There is a rule Ξ\XiΞ, assigning a positive definite matrix Ξ(ΣM,Σε)\Xi(\Sigma_{\mathsf M},\Sigma_\varepsilon)Ξ(ΣM​,Σε​) to every pair of positive definite matrices, such that in every model as above with ΣM≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}\succ0ΣM​≻0 and Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0, and at every x0\mathbf x_0x0​,

MSE⋆=ΣM(x0,x0)−ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σε]−1ΣM(x0,⋅)=[ΣM(x0,x0)−ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤ΣM−1ΣM(x0,⋅)]+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤ Ξ ΣM(x0,⋅).\begin{aligned}\mathrm{MSE}^\star&=\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\mathbf x_0)-\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\\&=\Big[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\mathbf x_0)-\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\Sigma_{\mathsf M}^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\Big]+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\,\Xi\,\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot).\end{aligned}MSE⋆​=ΣM​(x0​,x0​)−ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=[ΣM​(x0​,x0​)−ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤ΣM−1​ΣM​(x0​,⋅)]+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤ΞΣM​(x0​,⋅).​

The bracket is the usual kriging MSE. The goal also states that MSE⋆\mathrm{MSE}^\starMSE⋆ strictly exceeds it whenever ΣM(x0,⋅)≠0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\neq0ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=0. The matrix Ξ\XiΞ is existential and depends only on the two covariance matrices, not on x0\mathbf x_0x0​.

Milestone: display (6)

If ΣM+Σε≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0ΣM​+Σε​≻0, the stochastic kriging predictor

Y^(x0)=β0+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σε]−1(Yˉ−β01k)\widehat{\mathsf Y}(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}(\bar{\mathcal Y}-\beta_0\mathbf 1_k)Y(x0​)=β0​+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1(Yˉ​−β0​1k​)

is of the form (5), attains the smallest MSE among all predictors of that form, and is the only one that does.

Further items (not milestones)

  • (9)–(10): the two-point example, with closed forms for the predictor and its MSE in terms of τ2\tau^2τ2, r12r_{12}r12​, r0r_0r0​, V\mathsf VV, ρ\rhoρ and nnn.
  • (14): the equicorrelated example, MSE⋆=τ2(1−kr02/(1+(k−1)r+γ/n))\mathrm{MSE}^\star=\tau^2\big(1-k r_0^2/(1+(k-1)r+\gamma/n)\big)MSE⋆=τ2(1−kr02​/(1+(k−1)r+γ/n)).
  • §3, p. 365: under the Gaussian Assumption 1, Y^(x0)=E[Y(x0)∣Yˉ]\widehat{\mathsf Y}(\mathbf x_0)=\mathrm E[\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)\mid\bar{\mathcal Y}]Y(x0​)=E[Y(x0​)∣Yˉ​] almost surely.

Significance

Display (7) quantifies the price of simulation noise. With exact observations the best achievable error is the kriging MSE; with noisy observations it is larger by a positive definite form in the cross-covariance vector. Every point x0\mathbf x_0x0​ that is correlated with the design therefore loses accuracy. The two examples make this concrete. In (10) the MSE increases with the intrinsic correlation ρ\rhoρ, which is why the paper concludes that common random numbers, a standard variance-reduction device for comparing systems, do not help prediction. Display (14) is the baseline against which the paper measures the cost of estimating the noise variance. The conditional-expectation statement shows that under Gaussian assumptions stochastic kriging is optimal among all predictors, not only linear ones.

The results are classical in substance: they are the best-linear-prediction formulas of second-order random-field theory, applied to data whose covariance is ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​. The paper states them without proof ("we can show"). No machine-checked version exists. Formalizing them yields a reusable, measure-theoretic best-linear-predictor theorem for random vectors defined from a model rather than postulated, together with the Loewner-order fact behind the positive definiteness of Ξ\XiΞ.

Difficulty

The algebra is short; the difficulty is in deriving the second-moment structure from the model, not assuming it. The covariance of Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​ must be computed from the sample-mean definition, using bilinearity of covariance over finite sums of square-integrable variables, and shown to equal ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​. The cross-covariance with Y(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​) must be shown to equal ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅). The MSE of an arbitrary affine predictor then has to be written as a quadratic in (λ0,λ)(\lambda_0,\lambda)(λ0​,λ), and its infimum identified.

A first idea is to take "a random vector with mean β01\beta_0\mathbf 1β0​1 and covariance Σ\SigmaΣ" as the hypothesis. That proves a different, more abstract statement and leaves the model's content unproved.

For the second line of (7), the positive definiteness of Ξ\XiΞ does not follow from a scalar argument. It is a matrix inequality, (A+B)−1≺A−1(A+B)^{-1}\prec A^{-1}(A+B)−1≺A−1 for A,B≻0A,B\succ0A,B≻0, and it fails without Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0: when Σε=0\Sigma_\varepsilon=0Σε​=0 the two lines coincide.

Formalization scope

  • The model. Settings form an arbitrary type X; design points are x : Fin k → X, so the paper's index iii is i.val + 1. Replication j≥1j\ge1j≥1 is index j - 1 of a sequence ε : ℕ → X → Ω → ℝ.
  • Moments and covariances. Field and noise are in L2L^2L2 and have mean zero. Covariances are Mathlib's covariance. The optimal MSE is an infimum over all of R×Rk\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^kR×Rk, with no unbiasedness constraint and no sign constraint.
  • Hypotheses not printed in §2. Three are added and disclosed:
    1. uncorrelatedness of M\mathsf MM and ε\varepsilonε, the second-order content of Assumption 1's "independent of M\mathsf MM", without which the covariance of Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​ is not ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​;
    2. square integrability;
    3. ΣM≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}\succ0ΣM​≻0 and Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0 in the goal. Lean's matrix inverse returns 000 for a singular matrix, and Ξ≻0\Xi\succ0Ξ≻0 is false when Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is singular.
  • Generality kept. No Gaussianity, no independence across replications and no "no CRN" restriction is imposed on (6) and (7).
  • Examples. ∣r12∣<1|r_{12}|<1∣r12​∣<1 in (10) and r≤1r\le1r≤1 in (14) are added, since both are correlations.
  • Non-trivializing. A positive semidefinite Ξ\XiΞ, or a Ξ\XiΞ chosen after x0\mathbf x_0x0​, would make the goal trivial or strictly weaker; the statement fixes Ξ\XiΞ as a function of (ΣM,Σε)(\Sigma_{\mathsf M},\Sigma_\varepsilon)(ΣM​,Σε​) before the model and the point.

Infrastructure needed and reusable beyond this mission:

  • covariance of averages of L2L^2L2 random variables;
  • the MSE of an affine predictor as a quadratic form;
  • minimization of a positive definite quadratic;
  • the Loewner antitonicity of the inverse;
  • for the conditional-expectation item, Gaussian conditioning via uncorrelated-hence-independent residuals.

Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, IEEE, pp. 362–370, 2008. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc08papers/042.pdf
  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Operations Research 58(2), 371–382, 2010 (later journal version, not used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0754
  • J. Sacks, W. J. Welch, T. J. Mitchell, H. P. Wynn, Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Statistical Science 4(4), 409–423, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012413
  • T. J. Santner, B. J. Williams, W. I. Notz, The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3799-8
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Experimental DesignOperations ResearchProbability+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling I: The Plug-In Stochastic Kriging Predictor Is UnbiasedResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic simulation models of queues, supply chains and manufacturing systems are often too slow to run at every input setting of interest. A metamodel fitted to a moderate number of simulation runs then stands in for the simulation, for instance inside an optimization or a sensitivity analysis. Kriging, developed in geostatistics and in the design and analysis of deterministic computer experiments (DACE), predicts an unknown response surface by treating it as a realization of a Gaussian random field. Deterministic kriging interpolates its data exactly, which is wrong for stochastic simulation, where each run returns the response plus sampling noise.

Ankenman, Nelson and Staum's stochastic kriging separates the two sources of uncertainty: the extrinsic uncertainty of the unknown surface and the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulation output. Its optimal predictor requires the intrinsic noise variances, which are never known in practice and are replaced by sample variances computed from the same replications. This mission formalizes the paper's first key result: this plug-in step introduces no prediction bias.

The source is the Winter Simulation Conference 2008 proceedings version of the paper (pp. 362–370). The later Operations Research 58(2) (2010) article numbers its results differently and is not the reference here.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) and design variables x∈Rd\mathbf x\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. On replication j=1,2,…j=1,2,\dotsj=1,2,… at setting x\mathbf xx the simulation returns

Yj(x)=β0+M(x)+εj(x),\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x)+\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x),Yj​(x)=β0​+M(x)+εj​(x),

where β0∈R\beta_0\in\mathbb Rβ0​∈R is a constant trend, M\mathsf MM is a mean-zero random field on Rd\mathbb R^dRd (the unknown surface) and εj(x)\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x)εj​(x) is the noise of replication jjj. The quantity to predict at any point x0\mathbf x_0x0​, simulated or not, is the noise-free response Y(x0)=β0+M(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​)=β0​+M(x0​).

An experiment design is a list of pairs (xi,ni)(\mathbf x_i,n_i)(xi​,ni​), i=1,…,ki=1,\dots,ki=1,…,k, with distinct design points xi\mathbf x_ixi​ and nin_ini​ replications at xi\mathbf x_ixi​. The data are summarized by the sample means Yˉ(xi)=1ni∑j=1niYj(xi)\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i)Yˉ​(xi​)=ni​1​∑j=1ni​​Yj​(xi​), collected in the vector Yˉ∈Rk\bar{\mathcal Y}\in\mathbb R^kYˉ​∈Rk, and the sample variances

S2(xi)=1ni−1∑j=1ni(Yj(xi)−Yˉ(xi))2.\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i-1}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\big(\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i)-\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)\big)^2 .S2(xi​)=ni​−11​j=1∑ni​​(Yj​(xi​)−Yˉ​(xi​))2.

The extrinsic covariances are the k×kk\times kk×k matrix ΣM=(Cov[M(xh),M(xi)])h,i\Sigma_{\mathsf M}=(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_h),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{h,i}ΣM​=(Cov[M(xh​),M(xi​)])h,i​ and the vector ΣM(x0,⋅)=(Cov[M(x0),M(xi)])i\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)=(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{i}ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=(Cov[M(x0​),M(xi​)])i​.

Assumption 1. M\mathsf MM is a stationary Gaussian random field: all its finite-dimensional laws are multivariate normal with mean 000, the covariance is τ2R(x−x′)\tau^2R(\mathbf x-\mathbf x')τ2R(x−x′) with τ2>0\tau^2>0τ2>0 and R(0)=1R(\mathbf 0)=1R(0)=1, and the covariance matrix at finitely many distinct points is positive definite. At each design point the noises ε1(xi),ε2(xi),…\varepsilon_1(\mathbf x_i),\varepsilon_2(\mathbf x_i),\dotsε1​(xi​),ε2​(xi​),… are i.i.d. N(0,V(xi))N(0,\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i))N(0,V(xi​)) with V(xi)>0\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)>0V(xi​)>0; noises at different design points are independent (no common random numbers); and the whole noise family is independent of M\mathsf MM.

The intrinsic variance at a design point is estimated by V^(xi)=S2(xi)\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_i)=\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​)=S2(xi​), giving Σ^ε=Diag{V^(x1)/n1,…,V^(xk)/nk}\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon=\mathrm{Diag}\{\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_1)/n_1,\dots,\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_k)/n_k\}Σε​=Diag{V(x1​)/n1​,…,V(xk​)/nk​} and the plug-in stochastic kriging predictor

Y^^(x0)=β0+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σ^ε]−1(Yˉ−β01k).(13)\widehat{\widehat{\mathsf Y}}(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\big[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon\big]^{-1}\big(\bar{\mathcal Y}-\beta_0\mathbf 1_k\big).\tag{13}Y(x0​)=β0​+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1(Yˉ​−β0​1k​).(13)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 366)

Under Assumption 1, with ni≥2n_i\ge2ni​≥2 replications at every design point, the prediction error is integrable and

E[Y^^(x0)−Y(x0)]=0.\mathrm E\Big[\widehat{\widehat{\mathsf Y}}(\mathbf x_0)-\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)\Big]=0 .E[Y(x0​)−Y(x0​)]=0.

Milestones (p. 365)

  1. Under Assumption 1, (Y(x0),Yˉ(x1),…,Yˉ(xk))(\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0),\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_1),\dots,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_k))(Y(x0​),Yˉ​(x1​),…,Yˉ​(xk​)) is multivariate normal.
  2. Under Assumption 1, S2(xi)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)S2(xi​) has a scaled chi-squared distribution: (ni−1)S2(xi)/V(xi)∼χni−12(n_i-1)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)/\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)\sim\chi^2_{n_i-1}(ni​−1)S2(xi​)/V(xi​)∼χni​−12​.
  3. Under Assumption 1, S2(xi)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)S2(xi​) is strongly consistent for V(xi)\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​): the sample variance of the first mmm replications converges to V(xi)\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​) almost surely as m→∞m\to\inftym→∞.

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the practitioner's shortcut, estimating the noise variances from the replications and plugging them into the optimal predictor, keeps the predictor unbiased; the cost of not knowing the intrinsic variance is paid entirely in mean squared error. This is what makes the paper's subsequent comparison of the plug-in MSE with the known-variance MSE the right measure of the penalty for estimation.

None of these statements has a machine-checked proof, and Mathlib has neither the chi-squared law of the normal sample variance nor the independence of the normal sample mean and sample variance. A complete development produces these classical facts of normal sampling theory for the first time in Lean, together with a reusable model of noisy observations of a Gaussian random field.

Difficulty

The predictor is a nonlinear function of the data: its weight vector [ΣM+Σ^ε]−1ΣM(x0,⋅)[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)[ΣM​+Σε​]−1ΣM​(x0​,⋅) is random and depends on the same replications as Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​. Linearity of expectation therefore does not apply directly: the obvious argument, which treats the weights as constants, fails, and the dependence between the estimated variances, the sample means and the field has to be controlled exactly. The joint independence structure of Assumption 1 — across replications, across design points, and between noise and field — is load-bearing; a weaker pairwise or pointwise independence does not suffice. Integrability of the error must also be established, since the weights depend on random variances.

Formalization scope

Design points are indexed by Fin k (the paper's iii is i.val + 1) and lie in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); replication j≥1j\ge1j≥1 of the paper is index j - 1 of a sequence, so sums run over Finset.range. The field is M : EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) → Ω → ℝ with Mathlib's IsGaussianProcess; covariances are ProbabilityTheory.covariance; stationarity is Cov[M(y),M(y′)]=τ2R(y−y′)\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf y),\mathsf M(\mathbf y')]=\tau^2R(\mathbf y-\mathbf y')Cov[M(y),M(y′)]=τ2R(y−y′) with R(0)=1R(\mathbf 0)=1R(0)=1. The noise law is HasLaw … (gaussianReal 0 (V (x i))); independence is one iIndepFun over the family indexed by Fin k × ℕ plus one IndepFun between that whole family and the whole field. The variance function is ℝ≥0-valued with V(xi)>0\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)>0V(xi​)>0 assumed; replication counts satisfy ni≥2n_i\ge2ni​≥2 wherever S2\mathcal S^2S2 appears and ni≥1n_i\ge1ni​≥1 where only means appear. The chi-squared law χν2\chi^2_\nuχν2​ is gammaMeasure (ν/2) (1/2).

The covariance quantities ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ and ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅) in (13) are the true ones; only Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is estimated, and Σ^ε\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is built from the same replications as Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​. A formalization in which Σ^ε\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is deterministic or independent of the data, in which the matrix ΣM+Σ^ε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​ may be singular (Lean's Matrix.inv returns 000 there, reducing the claim to E[M(x0)]=0\mathrm E[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)]=0E[M(x0​)]=0), or in which the expectation is asserted without integrability, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out: positive definiteness of ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ at distinct design points is part of Assumption 1, and integrability is part of the conclusion. x0\mathbf x_0x0​ may coincide with a design point.

A complete development needs: the law of linear images of independent Gaussian vectors; independence of the sample mean and the residual vector for i.i.d. normal samples (Cochran's theorem); the chi-squared law of the normal sample variance; the strong law of large numbers for the sample variance; and a measurability and boundedness argument for the random weight vector. The normal-sampling results are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions.

Selected references

  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, IEEE, pp. 362–370, 2008. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc08papers/042.pdf
  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Operations Research 58(2):371–382, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0754
  • T. J. Santner, B. J. Williams, W. I. Notz, The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3799-8
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Negative Dynamic Programming III: If the Actions Are Essentially Finite, Value Iteration from Zero Converges to the Optimal Return and a Stationary Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A dynamic programming problem in Blackwell's sense describes a controller who observes the state of a system, picks an action, collects a return, and watches the system move at random to a new state, forever. Blackwell treated the discounted case, with a bounded return and a discount factor below one (Blackwell 1965), and the positive bounded case. Strauch's paper (Strauch 1966) studies the third case, the negative case: the return is non-positive and there is no discounting. Equivalently, a non-negative cost is minimized over an infinite horizon. This is the setting of stochastic shortest-path, optimal stopping with costs, and many inventory and search problems in which the total cost may be infinite.

In the negative case two standard tools of the discounted theory break down. An optimal policy need not exist, and the natural algorithm, value iteration from the zero function, need not converge to the optimal return. Strauch's §9 gives a condition on the action sets, essential finiteness, under which both are restored. The introduction (p. 872) summarizes the finite case: "In the negative case, … if A is finite, there is an optimal policy (Section 9)." In the later terminology of Bertsekas and Shreve (1978), Strauch's negative case is their positive-cost model, for which value iteration from zero is known to require such finiteness or compactness conditions.

Setting

The state space SSS and the action space AAA are non-empty Borel sets. The law of motion q(⋅∣s,a)q(\cdot\mid s,a)q(⋅∣s,a) is a probability measure on SSS depending measurably on (s,a)(s,a)(s,a). The return r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t), collected when action aaa is taken in state sss and the next state is ttt, is a Borel function with −∞<r≤0-\infty<r\le 0−∞<r≤0 and ∫r(s,a,t) dq(t∣s,a)>−∞\int r(s,a,t)\,dq(t\mid s,a)>-\infty∫r(s,a,t)dq(t∣s,a)>−∞ for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a).

A policy π=(π1,π2,… )\pi=(\pi_1,\pi_2,\dots)π=(π1​,π2​,…) chooses the nnnth action at random, with a law depending measurably on the whole history (s1,a1,…,sn)(s_1,a_1,\dots,s_n)(s1​,a1​,…,sn​). A Markov policy (f1,f2,… )(f_1,f_2,\dots)(f1​,f2​,…) is a sequence of measurable maps S→AS\to AS→A; the stationary policy f(∞)f^{(\infty)}f(∞) uses one map fff at every stage. The expected return from the initial state sss is

I(π)(s)=∑n=1∞π1q⋯πnq r (s)∈[−∞,0],I(\pi)(s)=\sum_{n=1}^\infty \pi_1q\cdots\pi_nq\,r\,(s)\in[-\infty,0],I(π)(s)=n=1∑∞​π1​q⋯πn​qr(s)∈[−∞,0],

the sum of the expected stage returns. The optimal return is v∗=sup⁡πI(π)v^*=\sup_\pi I(\pi)v∗=supπ​I(π), over all policies, and π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal if I(π∗)≥v∗I(\pi^*)\ge v^*I(π∗)≥v∗ at every state.

For a measurable f:S→Af:S\to Af:S→A and a non-positive Borel uuu, the operator TTT of fff is

Tu(s)=∫[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)] dq(t∣s,f(s)),Tu(s)=\int\big[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)\big]\,dq(t\mid s,f(s)),Tu(s)=∫[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)]dq(t∣s,f(s)),

and the operator of a Markov policy π∗=(f1,f2,… )\pi^*=(f_1,f_2,\dots)π∗=(f1​,f2​,…) is Uu=sup⁡nTnuUu=\sup_nT_nuUu=supn​Tn​u, with TnT_nTn​ the operator of fnf_nfn​. Value iteration is the sequence Un0U^n0Un0.

Actions aaa and bbb are equivalent at sss if r(s,a,⋅)=r(s,b,⋅)r(s,a,\cdot)=r(s,b,\cdot)r(s,a,⋅)=r(s,b,⋅) and q(⋅∣s,a)=q(⋅∣s,b)q(\cdot\mid s,a)=q(\cdot\mid s,b)q(⋅∣s,a)=q(⋅∣s,b). AAA is essentially finite by π∗\pi^*π∗ if there is a partition of SSS into Borel sets S1,S2,…S_1,S_2,\dotsS1​,S2​,… such that for s∈Sns\in S_ns∈Sn​ every action is equivalent at sss to one of f1(s),…,fn(s)f_1(s),\dots,f_n(s)f1​(s),…,fn​(s). A finite AAA is essentially finite by any Markov policy whose first ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ rules are the constant rules.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.1 (N), p. 887

If AAA is essentially finite by π∗\pi^*π∗ and UUU is the operator of π∗\pi^*π∗, then

Un0(s)→n→∞v∗(s)=sup⁡πI(π)(s)for every s,and∃f: I(f(∞))≥v∗.U^n0(s)\xrightarrow[n\to\infty]{}v^*(s)=\sup_\pi I(\pi)(s)\quad\text{for every } s,\qquad\text{and}\qquad \exists f:\ I(f^{(\infty)})\ge v^*.Un0(s)n→∞​v∗(s)=πsup​I(π)(s)for every s,and∃f: I(f(∞))≥v∗.

Both parts are kept together, as printed. The goal fixes no constants and no rate.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 6.1 (N), p. 880. For every Markov policy π^\hat\piπ^ with operator UUU, lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0 exists and
lim⁡nUn0 ≥ sup⁡π∈G(π^)I(π) ≥ sup⁡f(∞)∈G(π^)I(f(∞)),\lim_nU^n0\ \ge\ \sup_{\pi\in G(\hat\pi)}I(\pi)\ \ge\ \sup_{f^{(\infty)}\in G(\hat\pi)}I(f^{(\infty)}),nlim​Un0 ≥ π∈G(π^)sup​I(π) ≥ f(∞)∈G(π^)sup​I(f(∞)),

where G(π^)G(\hat\pi)G(π^) is the set of π^\hat\piπ^-generated policies (each rule equal to fnf_nfn​ on the nnnth piece of a Borel partition). 2. Proof of Theorem 8.4, p. 887. sup⁡πI(π)=sup⁡{I(π^)∣π^ Markov}\sup_\pi I(\pi)=\sup\{I(\hat\pi)\mid\hat\pi\text{ Markov}\}supπ​I(π)=sup{I(π^)∣π^ Markov} pointwise. 3. Proof of Theorem 9.1, p. 887, first step. Under essential finiteness, Un0U^n0Un0 is non-increasing and I(π)≤v∞:=lim⁡nUn0I(\pi)\le v^\infty:=\lim_nU^n0I(π)≤v∞:=limn​Un0 for every policy π\piπ. 4. Proof of Theorem 9.1, p. 887, second step. Under essential finiteness, Uv∞≥v∞Uv^\infty\ge v^\inftyUv∞≥v∞.

Inside the proof of Theorem 9.1 the paper writes v∗v^*v∗ for lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0; the mission writes v∞v^\inftyv∞ for it and reserves v∗v^*v∗ for sup⁡πI(π)\sup_\pi I(\pi)supπ​I(π).

An optional extra item states the introduction's special case: if AAA is finite, an optimal policy exists (§1, p. 872).

Significance

Theorem 9.1 gives, in the negative case, both a computational and an existential conclusion. Value iteration from zero computes the optimal return, so the optimal total cost of an essentially finite problem is the limit of the optimal finite-horizon costs. An optimal policy exists and can be taken stationary, so the controller needs only a single measurable decision rule. Without a hypothesis of this kind neither conclusion holds in the negative case; Example 6.1 of the paper exhibits a problem where the limit of value iteration, the best return among generated policies, and the best stationary return all differ.

The result is proved in the paper. What the mission adds is a machine-checked statement and, eventually, proof of it on general Borel spaces, with the return allowed to equal −∞-\infty−∞. Blackwell's discounted analogue already has a published statement on Prove2Me (DiscountedDP.Stationary.theorem7b_optimal_stationary), in a bounded-return model; the negative case is a separate statement in a separate model. No formalization of the negative case is known to exist.

Difficulty

The discounted proof rests on the contraction property of UUU in the supremum norm, and in the negative case that property is missing: returns are unbounded below and there is no discount. The obvious argument, "Un0U^n0Un0 decreases to some v∞v^\inftyv∞, and v∞v^\inftyv∞ is the optimal return because finite-horizon play approximates infinite play", fails at the second step. The finite-horizon optimum can stay strictly above the infinite-horizon optimum, because a policy can postpone a cost beyond every fixed horizon; this is exactly the gap Example 6.1 exhibits. Closing it needs the essential finiteness of the actions together with the reduction of arbitrary policies to Markov ones (milestone 2), whose proof in the paper passes through the measurable-selection results of §7–§8.

Formalization scope

  • The state and action spaces are non-empty standard Borel types; "Baire function" means Borel measurable.
  • The law of motion is a Markov kernel; the return is real-valued, non-positive, Borel, and integrable against every q(⋅∣s,a)q(\cdot\mid s,a)q(⋅∣s,a) (the paper's r>−∞r>-\inftyr>−∞ and qr>−∞qr>-\inftyqr>−∞).
  • Returns live in EReal and are computed as minus the lintegral of the loss −r-r−r, which keeps the value −∞-\infty−∞. I(π)I(\pi)I(π) is the sum over stages of the expected stage loss, which equals the paper's integral over futures by monotone convergence.
  • v∗v^*v∗ is the supremum over every randomized history-dependent plan, never over Markov or stationary policies only, and it is not defined through UUU. Defining v∗v^*v∗ as lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0 would make part (a) of the goal hold by unfolding; this trivializing formalization is excluded.
  • Optimality is against every plan, at every state.
  • UUU is the operator of the fixed π∗\pi^*π∗ of the hypothesis, applied from the zero function; convergence is pointwise in EReal.
  • Stages are numbered from 000 in Lean. Essential finiteness is zero-based: Lean's piece nnn is the paper's Sn+1S_{n+1}Sn+1​ and allows the rules f1,…,fn+1f_1,\dots,f_{n+1}f1​,…,fn+1​. The pieces are measurable, pairwise disjoint and cover SSS; empty pieces are allowed, as in the paper.
  • Explicit choices: the existence of lim⁡Un0\lim U^n0limUn0 in Lemma 6.1 is part of the statement; the limit in the steps of Theorem 9.1 is written as the infimum of the non-increasing sequence.
  • Only the negative case is formalized; the paper's discounted and positive parts are not.

Policies, Markov policies, stationary policies and π^\hat\piπ^-generated rules come from the published definitions DiscountedDP.Stationary.Model, .Return and .Operators; the negative model is defined locally because the published Problem has a bounded return and a discount factor below one. A complete development needs the Ionescu-Tulcea construction of the history laws (already encoded as iterated composition products), monotone convergence for kernels, the measurable-selection step behind milestone 2, and a pigeonhole argument over the essentially finite action classes. The model and the Markov-reduction milestone are reusable by the other missions of this series. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to milestone 2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. E. Strauch, Negative Dynamic Programming, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(4), 871–890, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • D. Blackwell, Discounted Dynamic Programming, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36(1), 226–235, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978. http://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
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AnalysisOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems 2: Addition, Supremum and the Reflecting Barrier Preserve J₁ Convergence of Linearly Centered PathsResearch Paper

Motivation

Queueing models often represent work arriving to and leaving a server by a real-valued input path. The resulting workload cannot fall below a barrier. Functional limit theorems describe what happens to such paths under scaling, but a limit for the input path is useful only when it can be carried through the workload transformation. Ward Whitt’s 1980 paper studies several path transformations that occur in stochastic-process limits and states conditions under which their limits can be computed in Skorohod topologies. Section 6 treats the running supremum and a reflecting barrier, including paths with a linear drift that changes with the scaling index. This mission formalizes the three-regime reflection result, Theorem 6.4, and the source results on its dependency path. Whitt (1980)

The result is already proved in the paper. Its formal Lean statement remains an open proof target here. The mission is therefore concerned with formalizing the known theorem, including its exact jump conditions and convergence modes, rather than proposing a new queueing claim. Whitt (1980), pp. 80–81

Setting

A càdlàg path on a real interval TTT is right-continuous and has a limit from the left wherever TTT approaches a time from the left. The collection of such real-valued paths is D(T,R)D(T,\mathbb R)D(T,R). For a compact interval [a,b][a,b][a,b], the J1J_1J1​ distance between xxx and yyy allows an increasing homeomorphism λ\lambdaλ of time and measures the larger of its distance from the identity and the uniform distance between xxx and y∘λy\circ\lambday∘λ. On a general interval, J1J_1J1​ convergence is specified by restrictions to compact subintervals whose endpoints are continuity points of the limit or endpoints of TTT. The paper uses complete separable metric spaces for general path-space results; Section 6 specializes to real-valued paths and intervals with 000 as a closed left endpoint. Whitt (1980), pp. 70, 80

For x∈D(T,R)x\in D(T,\mathbb R)x∈D(T,R) and t∈Tt\in Tt∈T, define the running supremum x↑(t)=sup⁡0≤s≤tx(s)x^{\uparrow}(t)=\sup_{0\le s\le t}x(s)x↑(t)=sup0≤s≤t​x(s) and running infimum x↓(t)=inf⁡0≤s≤tx(s)x^{\downarrow}(t)=\inf_{0\le s\le t}x(s)x↓(t)=inf0≤s≤t​x(s). The reflecting-barrier map is f(x)(t)=x(t)−x↓(t)f(x)(t)=x(t)-x^{\downarrow}(t)f(x)(t)=x(t)−x↓(t). This is the paper’s definition: it subtracts the full running infimum. The identity path is e(t)=te(t)=te(t)=t, and θ\thetaθ denotes the zero path. A path has no positive jumps if x(t)≤x(t−)x(t)\le x(t-)x(t)≤x(t−) for each t>0t>0t>0 in TTT; no negative jumps reverses that inequality. Whitt (1980), pp. 80–81

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 6.4. Suppose xn−cne→xx_n-c_ne\to xxn​−cn​e→x in J1J_1J1​ and x(0)=0x(0)=0x(0)=0. Its three conclusions are

cn→c  ⟹  f(xn)→f(x+ce)(J1),cn→+∞  ⟹  f(xn)−cne→x(J1),cn→−∞ and x has no positive jumps  ⟹  f(xn)→θ(U).\begin{aligned} c_n\to c &\implies f(x_n)\to f(x+ce) &&(J_1),\\ c_n\to+\infty &\implies f(x_n)-c_ne\to x &&(J_1),\\ c_n\to-\infty\ \text{and }x\text{ has no positive jumps} &\implies f(x_n)\to\theta &&(U). \end{aligned}cn​→ccn​→+∞cn​→−∞ and x has no positive jumps​⟹f(xn​)→f(x+ce)⟹f(xn​)−cn​e→x⟹f(xn​)→θ​​(J1​),(J1​),(U).​

Here UUU means uniform convergence on every compact subinterval. The goal keeps all three drift regimes together, as the printed theorem does. Its milestones are the finite-partition fact cited from Billingsley, the interval-splitting Lemma 2.2, continuity of addition at limits without shared discontinuities in Theorem 4.1, the running-supremum inequality in Theorem 6.1, the three-regime supremum theorem 6.2, and the paper’s explicit claim that fff is J1J_1J1​-continuous. Whitt (1980), pp. 71, 79–81

Significance

The theorem specifies which output path appears after reflection as the linear centering changes. Finite drift leaves a reflected limit with drift included; large positive drift leaves the centered input limit; large negative drift drives the reflected path uniformly to zero when upward jumps of the limit are excluded. The distinction between J1J_1J1​ and the stronger compact-uniform mode in the last case is part of the result. These statements make the paper’s barrier transformation usable when an input-process limit is already known. Whitt (1980), Theorem 6.4

A completed formal development would establish reusable path-space components: a precise J1J_1J1​ convergence interface for real intervals, a theorem about addition with disjoint discontinuities, and continuity properties of running extrema and reflection. The present Lean items state these results and compile with proof placeholders. No machine-checked proof of these mission theorems is claimed here. The milestone list follows the claims Whitt states or cites, so later proofs can be attached to the same mathematical targets. Whitt (1980), §§2, 4, 6

Difficulty

A uniform estimate alone does not establish a J1J_1J1​ limit: separate paths may converge using different changes of time, and addition can fail when the limiting paths jump together. Whitt’s Theorem 4.1 gives continuity precisely at pairs with disjoint discontinuity sets. In the reflection theorem, a linearly growing drift also changes which extrema matter, and the sign of a jump decides whether the large-drift conclusion can hold. The negative-drift conclusion asks for compact-uniform convergence, which is stronger than merely retaining J1J_1J1​ convergence. These are real constraints on the statement; dropping a jump condition or replacing UUU by J1J_1J1​ changes the theorem. Whitt (1980), pp. 78–81

Formalization scope

Paths are total functions R→S\mathbb R\to SR→S, but only their values on the stated interval count. The Lean definitions require càdlàg membership of both prelimit and limit paths in each J1J_1J1​ convergence claim. A time change on [a,b][a,b][a,b] is strictly increasing, continuous, and onto; this represents the paper’s increasing homeomorphism. Uniform and J1J_1J1​ distances take values in the extended nonnegative reals, so an unbounded supremum cannot silently become zero. Continuity points use continuity within TTT, and the discontinuity set likewise contains only points of TTT. Sequential convergence is used because the paper’s J1J_1J1​ spaces are metrizable. These choices encode the paper’s path-space conventions rather than imposing conditions on values outside TTT. Whitt (1980), §§2, 4, 6

The compact form of Theorem 6.1 uses metric (2.1); the noncompact metric (2.2) is outside this mission’s definition layer. Theorem 4.1 retains the paper’s complete separable metric-space setting and metric compatibility of addition. Its measurability clause is omitted: this mission does not construct the Borel measurable space of D(T,S)D(T,S)D(T,S), and a product measurable structure on all total functions would express a different claim. The source’s f(x)=x−x↓f(x)=x-x^{\downarrow}f(x)=x−x↓ is used on both prelimit and limit paths; it is not replaced by a clipped running infimum. Whitt (1980), pp. 70, 78–81

The definition layer, the addition theorem, the running-extremum results, and the barrier continuity statement are welcome proof targets. The theorem’s centered-path hypothesis remains a genuine J1J_1J1​ convergence assertion, and the jump conditions apply to the limit path only. A vacuous convergence predicate or an independently assumed conclusion would not represent this mission’s goal.

Selected references

  • Ward Whitt, Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems, Mathematics of Operations Research 5(1), 1980, pp. 67–85. DOI: 10.1287/moor.5.1.67
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Discrete Dynamic Programming with Sensitive Discount Optimality Criteria 2: No Improvement of Order n+1 Implies n-Discount Optimality, Which Rules Out Improvement of Order nResearch Paper

Motivation

A finite Markov decision process is usually solved under one of two criteria: the expected total discounted reward, for a fixed interest rate, or the long-run average reward. Neither is satisfactory when the interest rate is small and not known precisely. Blackwell (Blackwell 1962) showed that some stationary policy is optimal for every discount factor close enough to one, and that the average-reward criterion cannot tell apart policies with the same gain but very different transient rewards. Veinott's 1969 paper interpolates between these two: it introduces a hierarchy of nnn-discount optimality criteria, indexed by n=−1,0,1,…n=-1,0,1,\dotsn=−1,0,1,…, each more selective than the previous, and characterizes the stationary policies that meet each level through the Laurent expansion of the discounted return in the interest rate.

Timeline. Blackwell (1962) introduced the expansion of the discounted return near β=1\beta=1β=1 to first order and the criteria now called −1+-1^+−1+ and ∞+\infty^+∞+ discount optimality. Veinott (1966) gave a policy improvement method for the bias (0+0^+0+) criterion. Miller and Veinott (1969) gave the full Laurent expansion and a policy improvement algorithm for Blackwell optimality in the stochastic case. The present paper (1969) extends this to substochastic transition matrices and to negative interest rates in the transient case, defines the n±n^\pmn± criteria, and proves Theorem 4, the subject of this mission.

Setting

There are finitely many states sss (the paper's 1,…,S1,\dots,S1,…,S); in each state a finite nonempty action set AsA_sAs​. Action aaa in state sss earns r(s,a)∈Rr(s,a)\in\mathbb Rr(s,a)∈R and leads to state ttt with weight p(t∣s,a)≥0p(t\mid s,a)\ge0p(t∣s,a)≥0, where ∑tp(t∣s,a)≤1\sum_t p(t\mid s,a)\le1∑t​p(t∣s,a)≤1 (the remaining mass is the probability of stopping). A decision rule f∈F=×sAsf\in F=\times_s A_sf∈F=×s​As​ picks one action per state; r(f)r(f)r(f) and P(f)P(f)P(f) are its reward vector and substochastic transition matrix, Q(f)=P(f)−IQ(f)=P(f)-IQ(f)=P(f)−I. A policy is a sequence π=(f1,f2,… )\pi=(f_1,f_2,\dots)π=(f1​,f2​,…) of decision rules, f∞=(f,f,… )f^\infty=(f,f,\dots)f∞=(f,f,…) is a stationary policy, and PN(π)=P(f1)⋯P(fN)P^N(\pi)=P(f_1)\cdots P(f_N)PN(π)=P(f1​)⋯P(fN​).

For an interest rate ρ>−1\rho>-1ρ>−1 and β=(1+ρ)−1\beta=(1+\rho)^{-1}β=(1+ρ)−1, the discounted return is

Vρ(π)=∑N=1∞βNPN−1(π) r(fN).V_\rho(\pi)=\sum_{N=1}^{\infty}\beta^N P^{N-1}(\pi)\,r(f_N).Vρ​(π)=N=1∑∞​βNPN−1(π)r(fN​).

For a substochastic PPP, P∗P^*P∗ is the Cesàro limit of its powers and H=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗H=(I-P+P^*)^{-1}-P^*H=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗ its deviation matrix.

A policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is n±n^\pmn± discount optimal if, componentwise,

lim inf⁡ρ→0±∣ρ∣−n [Vρ(π∗)−Vρ(π)]≥0for all policies π.\liminf_{\rho\to0\pm}|\rho|^{-n}\,[V_\rho(\pi^*)-V_\rho(\pi)]\ge0\quad\text{for all policies }\pi .ρ→0±liminf​∣ρ∣−n[Vρ​(π∗)−Vρ​(π)]≥0for all policies π.

Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ is the set of fff with f∞f^\inftyf∞ n±n^\pmn± discount optimal, and D−2=FD_{-2}=FD−2​=F. The sign −-− (interest rate approaching zero from below) is considered only in the transient case, where ∑NP(f)N\sum_N P(f)^N∑N​P(f)N converges for every fff.

The Laurent coefficients of Vρ(f∞)V_\rho(f^\infty)Vρ​(f∞) are y−1±(f)=±P∗(f)r(f)y_{-1}^\pm(f)=\pm P^*(f)r(f)y−1±​(f)=±P∗(f)r(f) and yn±(f)=(∓1)nH(f)n+1r(f)y_n^\pm(f)=(\mp1)^nH(f)^{n+1}r(f)yn±​(f)=(∓1)nH(f)n+1r(f), n≥0n\ge0n≥0; with y−2±=0y_{-2}^\pm=0y−2±​=0 and r0=rr_0=rr0​=r, rn=0r_n=0rn​=0 otherwise, the test quantities are

ψn±(g,f)=rn(g)+Q(g) yn±(f)∓yn−1±(f),n≥−1.\psi_n^\pm(g,f)=r_n(g)+Q(g)\,y_n^\pm(f)\mp y_{n-1}^\pm(f),\qquad n\ge-1 .ψn±​(g,f)=rn​(g)+Q(g)yn±​(f)∓yn−1±​(f),n≥−1.

Ψn±(g,f)\Psi_n^\pm(g,f)Ψn±​(g,f) is the matrix with columns ψ−1±,…,ψn±\psi_{-1}^\pm,\dots,\psi_n^\pmψ−1±​,…,ψn±​, and Gn±(f)={g∈F:Ψn±(g,f)≻0}G_n^\pm(f)=\{g\in F:\Psi_n^\pm(g,f)\succ0\}Gn±​(f)={g∈F:Ψn±​(g,f)≻0}, where C≻0C\succ0C≻0 means that the first nonzero entry of every row of CCC is positive and C≠0C\ne0C=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

For f∈Ff\in Ff∈F and n=−2,−1,…,S−1n=-2,-1,\dots,S-1n=−2,−1,…,S−1:

Gn+1±(f)=∅ ⟹ f∈Dn±,f∈Dn± ⟹ Gn±(f)=∅.G_{n+1}^\pm(f)=\varnothing\ \Longrightarrow\ f\in D_n^\pm,\qquad f\in D_n^\pm\ \Longrightarrow\ G_n^\pm(f)=\varnothing .Gn+1±​(f)=∅ ⟹ f∈Dn±​,f∈Dn±​ ⟹ Gn±​(f)=∅.

The two halves bracket Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ between two finitely checkable conditions.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the Cesàro limit and (15); Lemma 5 (the reduced resolvent); Theorem 2 (the Laurent expansion Rρ(Q)=ρ−1P∗+∑n≥0(−ρ)nHn+1R_\rho(Q)=\rho^{-1}P^*+\sum_{n\ge0}(-\rho)^nH^{n+1}Rρ​(Q)=ρ−1P∗+∑n≥0​(−ρ)nHn+1); Lemma 7 (P∗+ρHP^*+\rho HP∗+ρH nonnegative, positive diagonal, nonsingular for small ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0); Theorem 3 (the expansion of Vρ(f∞)V_\rho(f^\infty)Vρ​(f∞)); (30)–(31) (the comparison identity); Lemma 8 (the expansion of the test quantity); Lemma 9 (the coefficient identity); the nonemptiness of D∞±D_\infty^\pmD∞±​; the characterization Dn±={f:Yn±(f)⪰Yn±(g) ∀g}D_n^\pm=\{f: Y_n^\pm(f)\succeq Y_n^\pm(g)\ \forall g\}Dn±​={f:Yn±​(f)⪰Yn±​(g) ∀g}; Theorem 5 (lexicographic improvement).

Significance

Theorem 4 turns a criterion stated through limits over all, possibly non-stationary, policies into a finite test on one-step switches. It is what lets the policy improvement method of Miller and Veinott stop early when only an n±n^\pmn± discount optimal policy is sought, rather than an S±S^\pmS± (Blackwell) optimal one, and it recovers Blackwell's algorithm for −1+-1^+−1+ and Veinott's 1966 algorithm for 0+0^+0+ as the cases n=−1,0n=-1,0n=−1,0. The nnn-discount hierarchy is the standard framework for sensitive optimality in Markov decision processes and underlies the average-overtaking and bias criteria used in later work.

The results are proved in the paper (Theorem 3 and Lemma 8 by reference to Miller–Veinott). None of them is formalized: the platform has the Cesàro limit matrix and the deviation matrix as definitions (from Blackwell 1962), and an open statement of their basic properties for stochastic matrices only. This mission adds the substochastic matrix theory of §3, the Laurent expansion of discounted returns with Veinott's normalization, and the lexicographic characterization of n±n^\pmn± discount optimality.

Difficulty

The definition of Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ compares f∞f^\inftyf∞ with every policy, and the comparison is a liminf of a scaled difference of infinite series. The obvious route, comparing Laurent coefficients, applies only to stationary policies, whose returns have Laurent expansions; reducing the comparison with arbitrary policies to stationary ones requires the existence of an ∞±\infty^\pm∞± discount optimal stationary policy, which is a separate existence theorem. The second difficulty is that P∗P^*P∗ may be singular or zero and the chain may have several recurrent classes: Lemma 7 is what replaces an analysis of the chain structure in the inductive step of the proof.

Formalization scope

Lean 4 with Mathlib, namespace VeinottSensitiveDP.Sensitive. States form a nonempty Fintype; each state has its own finite nonempty action type A s; policies are sequences ℕ → F with π 0 the paper's f1f_1f1​. All quantities are real. P∗P^*P∗ and HHH are the published limitMatrix and deviationMatrix; their properties for substochastic matrices are milestones, not assumptions. VρV_\rhoVρ​ is a tsum with Veinott's extra factor β\betaβ; every theorem about it carries the hypotheses under which the series converges. The spectral radius is that of the complexified matrix. The sign ±\pm± is a real parameter σ∈{1,−1}\sigma\in\{1,-1\}σ∈{1,−1}, and statements for σ=−1\sigma=-1σ=−1 assume the transient case. The liminf in (27) is encoded as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually ≥−ε\ge-\varepsilon≥−ε", which is the extended-real liminf. Matrices with columns −1,…,n-1,\dots,n−1,…,n are functions of an integer column index read on [−1,n][-1,n][−1,n].

A trivializing formalization would define Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ by comparison with stationary policies only, or directly as the lexicographic maximizers of Yn±Y_n^\pmYn±​; here Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ is defined by (27) against all policies, and the lexicographic characterization is a milestone.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the matrix results of §3 (reusable for any work on deviation matrices and Laurent expansions of Markov chains), of the Laurent expansions, and of the existence of ∞±\infty^\pm∞± discount optimal stationary policies.

Selected references

  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete dynamic programming with sensitive discount optimality criteria, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(5):1635–1660, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697379
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete dynamic programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., On finding optimal policies in discrete dynamic programming with no discounting, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(5):1284–1294, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699272
  • B. L. Miller and A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete dynamic programming with a small interest rate, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(2):366–370, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697700
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment II: With a Fixed Order Cost, a World-Dependent (r, S) Policy Is Optimal and Lies within Veinott-Type BoundsResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand for many products is not stationary: it rises and falls with the economy, the season, a product's life cycle or a customer's state. Song and Zipkin (1993) (DOI 10.1287/opre.41.2.351) model this by a world-driven demand process: an exogenous Markov chain AAA (the "state of the world") whose current state sets the rate of a Poisson demand stream. The model contains the classical stationary inventory model as the case of one world state, and it is a standard example of a Markov-modulated decision problem in operations research.

For stationary demand with a fixed order cost, optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies go back to Scarf (1960) for finite horizons and Iglehart (1963) for the infinite horizon; Veinott (1966) bounded the optimal parameters by quantities computed from the one-period cost alone. This mission formalizes the extension of both results to the fluctuating-demand model (§3.2 of the paper). A companion mission treats the linear order-cost case, in which a world-dependent basestock policy is optimal.

Setting

The world AAA is a continuous-time Markov chain on a countable set III with generator (qij)(q_{ij})(qij​), qi=−qii=∑j≠iqijq_i = -q_{ii} = \sum_{j\neq i} q_{ij}qi​=−qii​=∑j=i​qij​, and bounded rates. While A=iA = iA=i, unit demands arrive at Poisson rate λi\lambda_iλi​; shortages are backlogged. An order arrives after a random lead time LLL, independent of the world and the demand. The inventory position x∈Zx \in \mathbb Zx∈Z is on-hand stock minus backorders plus stock on order.

Costs: a fixed cost Kˉ\bar KKˉ per order and a unit cost cˉ\bar ccˉ, both paid on arrival; a holding cost rate h>0h > 0h>0 and a penalty cost rate p>0p > 0p>0; a discount rate α>0\alpha > 0α>0. With F~L(α)=E[e−αL]\tilde F_L(\alpha) = E[e^{-\alpha L}]F~L​(α)=E[e−αL], the discounted costs are c=cˉF~L(α)c = \bar c\tilde F_L(\alpha)c=cˉF~L​(α) and K=KˉF~L(α)K = \bar K\tilde F_L(\alpha)K=KˉF~L​(α). If DLiD^i_LDLi​ is the demand during a lead time from world state iii and C^(x)=max⁡{−px,hx}\hat C(x) = \max\{-px, hx\}C^(x)=max{−px,hx},

C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi)].C(i, y) = E\big[e^{-\alpha L}\hat C(y - D^i_L)\big].C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi​)].

Uniformization at a rate μ≥sup⁡iqi+sup⁡iλi\mu \ge \sup_i q_i + \sup_i\lambda_iμ≥supi​qi​+supi​λi​ turns the problem into a discrete-time dynamic program with β=1/(μ+α)\beta = 1/(\mu+\alpha)β=1/(μ+α), γ=βμ\gamma = \beta\muγ=βμ and the myopic cost G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y)G^+(i, y) = (1-\gamma)cy + \beta C(i, y)G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y). For a terminal cost W0W_0W0​ the nnn-stage costs satisfy the recursion (10):

Wn(i,x)=min⁡y≥x{Kδ(y−x)+Gn(i,y)},W_n(i, x) = \min_{y\ge x}\{K\delta(y-x) + G_n(i, y)\},Wn​(i,x)=y≥xmin​{Kδ(y−x)+Gn​(i,y)}, Gn(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλic+β{λiWn−1(i,y−1)+∑j≠iqijWn−1(j,y)+(μ−λi−qi)Wn−1(i,y)},G_n(i, y) = G^+(i, y) + \beta\lambda_i c + \beta\Big\{\lambda_i W_{n-1}(i, y-1) + \sum_{j\neq i} q_{ij}W_{n-1}(j, y) + (\mu - \lambda_i - q_i)W_{n-1}(i, y)\Big\},Gn​(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλi​c+β{λi​Wn−1​(i,y−1)+j=i∑​qij​Wn−1​(j,y)+(μ−λi​−qi​)Wn−1​(i,y)},

where δ(z)=1\delta(z) = 1δ(z)=1 if z>0z > 0z>0 and δ(0)=0\delta(0) = 0δ(0)=0. Throughout, Assumption 1, αcˉ<p\alpha\bar c < pαcˉ<p, holds and K>0K > 0K>0. The terminal cost is the optimal cost W∞W_\inftyW∞​ of the linear model (K=0K = 0K=0); its G∞G_\inftyG∞​ is written G0G_0G0​, and y∗(i)y^*(i)y∗(i) is the smallest minimizer of G0(i,⋅)G_0(i, \cdot)G0​(i,⋅).

A function f:Z→Rf : \mathbb Z \to \mathbb Rf:Z→R is KKK-convex (Definition 2) if f(x)−f(x−b)ba+f(x)≤f(x+a)+K\frac{f(x)-f(x-b)}{b}a + f(x) \le f(x+a) + Kbf(x)−f(x−b)​a+f(x)≤f(x+a)+K for all xxx and all integers a,b>0a, b > 0a,b>0. The (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) policy with parameters {(r(i),S(i))}\{(r(i), S(i))\}{(r(i),S(i))} orders up to S(i)S(i)S(i) when x≤r(i)x \le r(i)x≤r(i) and the world is in state iii, and does not order otherwise. With y+(i)y^+(i)y+(i) the smallest minimizer of G+(i,⋅)G^+(i,\cdot)G+(i,⋅) and ymin⁡+=min⁡iy+(i)y^+_{\min} = \min_i y^+(i)ymin+​=mini​y+(i), the paper defines

S+(i)=min⁡{y≥y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>γK},r+(i)=max⁡{y<y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>(1−γ)K},r−(i)=max⁡{y<y∗(i):G0(i,y)−G0(i,y∗(i))>K},r−−(i)=max⁡{y<ymin⁡+:G+(i,y)−G+(i,ymin⁡+)>K}.\begin{aligned} S^+(i) &= \min\{y \ge y^+(i) : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+(i)) > \gamma K\},\\ r^+(i) &= \max\{y < y^+(i) : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+(i)) > (1-\gamma)K\},\\ r^-(i) &= \max\{y < y^*(i) : G_0(i, y) - G_0(i, y^*(i)) > K\},\\ r^{--}(i) &= \max\{y < y^+_{\min} : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+_{\min}) > K\}. \end{aligned}S+(i)r+(i)r−(i)r−−(i)​=min{y≥y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>γK},=max{y<y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>(1−γ)K},=max{y<y∗(i):G0​(i,y)−G0​(i,y∗(i))>K},=max{y<ymin+​:G+(i,y)−G+(i,ymin+​)>K}.​

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorems 5(e) and 6

Let Sn∗(i)S^*_n(i)Sn∗​(i) be the smallest minimizer of Gn(i,⋅)G_n(i,\cdot)Gn​(i,⋅) and rn∗(i)r^*_n(i)rn∗​(i) the largest y<Sn∗(i)y < S^*_n(i)y<Sn∗​(i) with Gn(i,y)>K+Gn(i,Sn∗(i))G_n(i, y) > K + G_n(i, S^*_n(i))Gn​(i,y)>K+Gn​(i,Sn∗​(i)). For every iii the sequence (rn∗(i),Sn∗(i))(r^*_n(i), S^*_n(i))(rn∗​(i),Sn∗​(i)) has limit points; for any choice of limit points (r∗(i),S∗(i))(r^*(i), S^*(i))(r∗(i),S∗(i)), the world-dependent (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) policy with these parameters is optimal for the infinite-horizon discounted problem, and

y∗(i)≤S∗(i)<S+(i),r−−(i)≤r−(i)≤r∗(i)≤r+(i).y^*(i) \le S^*(i) < S^+(i),\qquad r^{--}(i) \le r^-(i) \le r^*(i) \le r^+(i).y∗(i)≤S∗(i)<S+(i),r−−(i)≤r−(i)≤r∗(i)≤r+(i).

Milestones

Lemma 4 (uniform bounds on the iterates); Theorem 3 (KKK-convexity of GnG_nGn​, WnW_nWn​ and optimality of an (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) rule for each nnn-stage problem); Lemmas 5 and 6 (difference comparisons); Theorem 4 (the bounds above for every nnn); Theorem 5(a)–(d) (convergence of WnW_nWn​, GnG_nGn​, the (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) property of limit points, and the optimality equation (2)).

Significance

The result shows that the classical (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) structure survives Markov modulation of demand with an infinite world space and stochastic lead times: a stationary policy whose two parameters depend only on the current world state is optimal over the infinite horizon. The bounds of Theorem 6 locate those parameters in an interval computed from the myopic cost G+G^+G+ and the linear model alone, uniformly in the horizon.

The results are proved in the paper, except that Theorem 5 refers to Iglehart (1963) and Lemma 4 to Song's thesis. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would also produce reusable machinery: KKK-convexity on the integers, the Scarf-type inductive argument with a countable world state, and the passage from finite-horizon to infinite-horizon optimality for a nonnegative-cost Markov decision process with unbounded costs.

Difficulty

The one-period cost is unbounded in xxx and the world space may be infinite, so the usual contraction argument for discounted dynamic programs does not apply. Convergence of WnW_nWn​ needs the uniform bound of Lemma 4. Optimality of the limit policy needs a separate argument, because a pointwise limit of (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) rules need not exist: the parameter sequences are only known to have limit points. The lower bounds r−r^-r− and r−−r^{--}r−− hold only because the terminal cost is the linear model's optimal cost, which makes the difference comparisons of Lemma 6 possible; the paper notes that Lemma 6 depends on this choice of W0W_0W0​.

Formalization scope

All definitions live in the namespace SongZipkinFluct.FixedCost. Inventory positions and order-up-to levels are integers. The demand law DLiD^i_LDLi​ is defined through uniformization at rate μ\muμ, as an exact series representation of the Markov-modulated Poisson count, and the lead time is a probability law on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) independent of the rest. The standing conventions h,p,α>0h, p, \alpha > 0h,p,α>0, cˉ,Kˉ≥0\bar c, \bar K \ge 0cˉ,Kˉ≥0, μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and μ≥q∗+λ∗\mu \ge q^* + \lambda^*μ≥q∗+λ∗ are hypotheses of the model. Assumption 1 and Kˉ>0\bar K > 0Kˉ>0 are hypotheses of each theorem.

The iterates WnW_nWn​ are defined by the recursion (10), with the minimum written as an infimum over integers y≥xy \ge xy≥x. W∞W_\inftyW∞​ and G∞G_\inftyG∞​ are the suprema over nnn, which are finite and equal the limits by Lemma 4 and Theorem 3. Every minimizer and every extremal integer (y+y^+y+, ymin⁡+y^+_{\min}ymin+​, y∗y^*y∗, Sn∗S^*_nSn∗​, rn∗r^*_nrn∗​, S+S^+S+, r+r^+r+, r−r^-r−, r−−r^{--}r−−) is passed through its defining property, never through sInf/sSup on Z\mathbb ZZ. The goal also asserts that all of them exist, so its hypotheses can be met. A limit point of an integer sequence is a value taken infinitely often.

Optimality is over all deterministic history-dependent feasible policies and from every initial state. Costs are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and a policy's cost is the supremum of its finite-horizon discounted costs in the uniformized problem (1). Restricting the comparison to (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) or stationary policies would trivialize the goal and is ruled out. KKK-convexity is the integer version of Definition 2, not convexity over Z\mathbb ZZ-scalars.

Welcome contributions: KKK-convexity calculus on Z\mathbb ZZ, convergence of the uniformized demand series, Lemma 4, and an Iglehart-type limit argument for countable-state Markov decision processes with nonnegative costs.

Selected references

  • J.-S. Song and P. Zipkin, Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment, Operations Research 41(2):351–370, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.2.351
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2):259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., On the Optimality of (s, S) Inventory Policies: New Conditions and a New Proof, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 14(5):1067–1083, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1137/0114086
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Random Walks in a Random Environment 2: lim X_n/n = (1 − Eσ)/(1 + Eσ) if Eσ < 1, −(1 − E(σ⁻¹))/(1 + E(σ⁻¹)) if E(σ⁻¹) < 1, and 0 OtherwiseResearch Paper

Motivation

A random walk in a random environment is a walk whose step probabilities are sampled once at each site and then reused whenever the walk returns there. Repeated visits therefore reveal the same local bias instead of drawing a fresh probability. This makes the walk different from an ordinary random walk with a single averaged step probability. Solomon's 1975 paper asks how the random environment changes the long-run direction and speed of a one-dimensional nearest-neighbor walk. Its Section 1 gives the speed law and the associated limits for first passage times. These results distinguish escape at a nonzero linear rate from escape or recurrence at zero linear rate. Solomon (1975)

The question matters whenever a particle repeatedly crosses the same heterogeneous medium. Averaging the local right-step probabilities predicts the drift of a homogeneous comparison walk, but it does not generally predict the speed in the sampled medium. Sites with a small right-step probability can hold up the walk through repeated excursions. The formula in Theorem (1.16) quantifies this effect using a moment of the ratio of left-step to right-step probability. Solomon (1975), pp. 7–8

Setting

An environment is a sequence α=(αz)z∈Z\alpha=(\alpha_z)_{z\in\mathbb Z}α=(αz​)z∈Z​ of numbers in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. In a fixed environment, a walk at site zzz moves to z+1z+1z+1 with probability αz\alpha_zαz​ and to z−1z-1z−1 with probability βz=1−αz\beta_z=1-\alpha_zβz​=1−αz​. It starts at X0=0X_0=0X0​=0. For the random environment, the variables αz\alpha_zαz​ are independent and identically distributed. First the environment is sampled; then the walk moves according to the fixed probabilities at its sites. The probability law that averages over both choices is the annealed law PPP. The mission's model records this law through every finite path cylinder, jointly with every measurable event concerning the environment. Solomon (1975), pp. 1–2

Write σz=βz/αz\sigma_z=\beta_z/\alpha_zσz​=βz​/αz​ for the ratio of leftward to rightward probability. At the endpoints, σz=∞\sigma_z=\inftyσz​=∞ when αz=0\alpha_z=0αz​=0 and σz=0\sigma_z=0σz​=0 when αz=1\alpha_z=1αz​=1. Let e=Eσ0e=E\sigma_0e=Eσ0​ and e−=E(σ0−1)e_-=E(\sigma_0^{-1})e−​=E(σ0−1​); either may be infinite. For an integer site z≠0z\ne0z=0, the passage time TzT_zTz​ is the first positive time at which XXX visits zzz, with Tz=∞T_z=\inftyTz​=∞ if the site is never reached; put T0=0T_0=0T0​=0. The positive ladder times are τn=Tn−Tn−1\tau_n=T_n-T_{n-1}τn​=Tn​−Tn−1​ where the passage times are finite. Their joint sequence, rather than individual identically distributed variables alone, is relevant to the speed law. Solomon (1975), pp. 5–7

Formalization targets

The goal is the complete three-case statement of Theorem (1.16). All limits below hold almost surely. If e<1e<1e<1, then

Tnn⟶1+e1−e,Xnn⟶1−e1+e.\frac{T_n}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1+e}{1-e},\qquad \frac{X_n}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1-e}{1+e}.nTn​​⟶1−e1+e​,nXn​​⟶1+e1−e​.

If e−<1e_-<1e−​<1, the symmetric limits are

T−nn⟶1+e−1−e−,Xnn⟶−1−e−1+e−.\frac{T_{-n}}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1+e_-}{1-e_-},\qquad \frac{X_n}{n}\longrightarrow-\frac{1-e_-}{1+e_-}.nT−n​​⟶1−e−​1+e−​​,nXn​​⟶−1+e−​1−e−​​.

In the remaining case, e−1≤1≤e−e^{-1}\le1\le e_-e−1≤1≤e−​, both normalized passage times tend to infinity and Xn/nX_n/nXn​/n tends to zero. The reciprocal inequality is understood in the extended nonnegative reals, including e=∞e=\inftye=∞. The milestone list follows the paper's supporting statements: a transience observation, a fixed-environment mean passage-time identity, a separated-block independence lemma, stationarity and ergodicity of ladder times, and the annealed mean ladder-time formula. Solomon (1975), pp. 3, 5–7

Significance

The theorem gives a numerical asymptotic speed in either direction when the corresponding ratio has mean below one. It also identifies a zero-speed regime through explicit conditions on the two reciprocal moments. The passage-time clauses say more than the final speed alone: they describe the time required to reach distant positive and negative sites and distinguish a finite linear time scale from an infinite one. The same section compares the speed with that of a homogeneous walk obtained by replacing every local probability with Eα0E\alpha_0Eα0​; the random environment can slow the walk. Solomon (1975), pp. 7–8

Solomon proved these results in 1975. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the known statements and a reusable Lean description of the annealed nearest-neighbor model. The fixed-environment chain, first passage times, and the shift law of a sequence of ladder times are useful interfaces for further formal work on random media. No proof of these draft statements is claimed by the mission proposal. Solomon (1975)

Difficulty

The direct attempt to apply an ordinary law of large numbers to the step increments Xn−Xn−1X_n-X_{n-1}Xn​−Xn−1​ does not fit the model: those increments are not strictly stationary in a nonconstant environment. The walk revisits previously sampled site probabilities, so a later increment depends on the path's history through the sites it has encountered. The paper points out this obstruction before introducing ladder times. An additional issue is that a passage time need not be finite, and the means eee and e−e_-e−​ may also be infinite. Any argument that converts these quantities to ordinary real numbers too early loses the zero-speed cases. Solomon (1975), pp. 5, 7

Formalization scope

Lean represents sites by Z\mathbb ZZ and time indices by N\mathbb NN. A probability space carries the jointly sampled environment and path. The environment lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1] pointwise and is independent and identically distributed across all integer sites. The path law is fixed by its joint finite-dimensional cylinder probabilities, which express the annealed construction from the paper. In particular, the path cannot be chosen independently of the environment merely because its one-step marginal probabilities look right. This rules out a trivializing model that forgets the dependence between the sampled medium and the walk.

The ratios σz\sigma_zσz​, their reciprocal and their expectations take values in R≥0∪{∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{\infty\}R≥0​∪{∞}. Passage times take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and normalized passage-time limits are expressed in extended nonnegative reals. The position ratio Xn/nX_n/nXn​/n has a real limit. The theorem permits both endpoint probabilities, αz=0\alpha_z=0αz​=0 and αz=1\alpha_z=1αz​=1, and imposes no nondegeneracy assumption. Each convergence statement is almost sure. The ergodicity milestone concerns the full joint law of the sequence (τn)n≥1(\tau_n)_{n\ge1}(τn​)n≥1​ under the left shift; shift preservation supplies strict stationarity. Solomon (1975), pp. 1–2, 5–7

A complete development needs measure-theoretic probability, the fixed-environment chain and annealed cylinder law, extended-valued integration and first passage times, and ergodic theory for the ladder-time shift. The model and passage-time interfaces can be reused in later one-dimensional random-environment results. Contributions proving the listed milestones, sharpening their interfaces without changing their meaning, or supplying general probability lemmas used by the known proof are within scope.

Selected references

  • Fred Solomon, Random Walks in a Random Environment, The Annals of Probability 3(1):1–31, 1975. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996444
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CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition IV: Mutually Distinguishable Tangles Have a Tree-Decomposition Separating Them by Their DistinctionsResearch Paper

Why tangles need to be organised into a tree

Robertson and Seymour introduced tangles in Graph Minors. X (J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190) as the precise obstruction to tree-decompositions of small width: a graph has a tangle of large order exactly when it has no tree-decomposition of small width. A tangle points to a highly connected region of a graph without naming its vertices, by designating for every low-order separation which side is the "small" one. Large grids, large clique minors and surface embeddings with high representativity all induce tangles.

A graph usually contains several such regions. The structure theory of the Graph Minors series needs to look at all of them at once: to decompose a graph along a tree so that each highly connected region sits at its own node, and any two regions are separated as cheaply as possible. Section 10 of the paper provides that decomposition, and its later versions ("tree of tangles" theorems) have become a standard tool in structural graph theory, in matroid theory and in abstract separation systems (see Diestel, Hundertmark and Lemanczyk, Profiles of separations: in graphs, matroids and beyond, Combinatorica 39 (2019), and Carmesin, Diestel, Hundertmark and Stein, Connectivity and tree structure in finite graphs, Combinatorica 34 (2014)). This mission formalizes the original 1991 statement for hypergraphs.

Setting

A hypergraph GGG has a finite vertex set V(G)V(G)V(G), a finite edge set E(G)E(G)E(G) and an incidence relation; an edge may have any number of ends. A subhypergraph is given by a vertex set and an edge set, closed under taking ends of its edges; ∪\cup∪, ∩\cap∩, ⊆\subseteq⊆ act on both sets. A separation is a pair (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of subhypergraphs with A∪B=GA\cup B=GA∪B=G and E(A∩B)=∅E(A\cap B)=\emptysetE(A∩B)=∅; its order is ∣V(A∩B)∣|V(A\cap B)|∣V(A∩B)∣.

A tangle of order θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1 is a set T\mathcal TT of separations of order <θ<\theta<θ such that (i) of every separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of order <θ<\theta<θ, one of (A,B)(A,B)(A,B), (B,A)(B,A)(B,A) is in T\mathcal TT; (ii) no three members (Ai,Bi)(A_i,B_i)(Ai​,Bi​) of T\mathcal TT satisfy A1∪A2∪A3=GA_1\cup A_2\cup A_3=GA1​∪A2​∪A3​=G; (iii) V(A)≠V(G)V(A)\neq V(G)V(A)=V(G) for (A,B)∈T(A,B)\in\mathcal T(A,B)∈T. Two tangles are indistinguishable if one contains the other, and a separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) distinguishes T1\mathcal T_1T1​ from T2\mathcal T_2T2​ if (A,B)∈T1(A,B)\in\mathcal T_1(A,B)∈T1​ and (B,A)∈T2(B,A)\in\mathcal T_2(B,A)∈T2​.

A tree-decomposition (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) assigns a subhypergraph τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) to each node of a tree TTT, so that the τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) cover GGG, are pairwise edge-disjoint, and τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′)\tau(t)\cap\tau(t'')\subseteq\tau(t')τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′) whenever t′t't′ lies on the path from ttt to t′′t''t′′. An edge eee of TTT, with components T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ of T∖eT\setminus eT∖e, makes the separations (G1e,G2e)(G^e_1,G^e_2)(G1e​,G2e​) and (G2e,G1e)(G^e_2,G^e_1)(G2e​,G1e​), where Gie=⋃t∈V(Ti)τ(t)G^e_i=\bigcup_{t\in V(T_i)}\tau(t)Gie​=⋃t∈V(Ti​)​τ(t). Two separations cross unless one of four nestings holds (A1⊆A2A_1\subseteq A_2A1​⊆A2​ and B2⊆B1B_2\subseteq B_1B2​⊆B1​, or the analogous three); a set of separations is laminar if no two members cross.

A tie-breaker λ\lambdaλ maps separations into a linearly ordered set so that (i) λ(A,B)=λ(C,D)\lambda(A,B)=\lambda(C,D)λ(A,B)=λ(C,D) exactly when (A,B)=(C,D)(A,B)=(C,D)(A,B)=(C,D) or (A,B)=(D,C)(A,B)=(D,C)(A,B)=(D,C); (ii) λ(A∪C,B∩D)≤λ(A,B)\lambda(A\cup C,B\cap D)\le\lambda(A,B)λ(A∪C,B∩D)≤λ(A,B) or λ(A∩C,B∪D)<λ(C,D)\lambda(A\cap C,B\cup D)<\lambda(C,D)λ(A∩C,B∪D)<λ(C,D); (iii) separations of smaller order get smaller λ\lambdaλ-order. Given λ\lambdaλ, the (T1,T2)(\mathcal T_1,\mathcal T_2)(T1​,T2​)-distinction is the separation of minimum λ\lambdaλ-order distinguishing T1\mathcal T_1T1​ from T2\mathcal T_2T2​. A separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) is λ\lambdaλ-robust if for every separation (C,D)(C,D)(C,D) of the hypergraph AAA, one of (C,B∪D)(C,B\cup D)(C,B∪D), (D,B∪C)(D,B\cup C)(D,B∪C) has λ\lambdaλ-order at least λ(A,B)\lambda(A,B)λ(A,B), and doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust if (B,A)(B,A)(B,A) is λ\lambdaλ-robust too.

Formalization targets

Goal: (10.3), p. 181

Let T1,…,Tn\mathcal T_1,\dots,\mathcal T_nT1​,…,Tn​, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, be mutually distinguishable tangles in GGG (each with its own order) and λ\lambdaλ a tie-breaker. Then there is a tree-decomposition (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) with V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} such that

(i)ti∈V(T1) ⟹ (⋃t∈V(T1)τ(t), ⋃t∈V(T2)τ(t))∉Tifor every e∈E(T),\text{(i)}\quad t_i\in V(T_1)\ \Longrightarrow\ \Bigl(\textstyle\bigcup_{t\in V(T_1)}\tau(t),\ \bigcup_{t\in V(T_2)}\tau(t)\Bigr)\notin\mathcal T_i\quad\text{for every } e\in E(T),(i)ti​∈V(T1​) ⟹ (⋃t∈V(T1​)​τ(t), ⋃t∈V(T2​)​τ(t))∈/Ti​for every e∈E(T),

and (ii) for i≠ji\neq ji=j, each edge of the tit_iti​–tjt_jtj​ path in TTT whose separations have the smallest λ\lambdaλ-order on that path makes the (Ti,Tj)(\mathcal T_i,\mathcal T_j)(Ti​,Tj​)- and (Tj,Ti)(\mathcal T_j,\mathcal T_i)(Tj​,Ti​)-distinctions, the first with tjt_jtj​'s side first.

Milestones

  • (9.1), p. 177: the separations made by the edges of a tree-decomposition form a laminar set, and every laminar set is the set made by the edges of some tree-decomposition, each member by a unique edge.
  • (9.2), p. 178: every hypergraph has a tie-breaker.
  • (9.3), p. 179: a strict form of the second tie-breaker axiom, with two degenerate exceptions.
  • (9.4), p. 180: doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust separations do not cross.
  • (10.1), p. 180: two tangles are distinguished by some separation if and only if neither contains the other.
  • (10.2), p. 181: the (T1,T2)(\mathcal T_1,\mathcal T_2)(T1​,T2​)-distinction is doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust.

Significance

The theorem gives a single decomposition for all tangles at once: any family of pairwise distinguishable tangles is displayed by a single tree-decomposition, with each tangle "living" at its own node (property (i)) and every pair separated by its cheapest distinction (property (ii)). The paper derives from it that a hypergraph has at most ∣V(G)∣|V(G)|∣V(G)∣ maximal tangles ((10.4), p. 184), and Section 11 uses the same machinery to build tree-decompositions whose pieces "almost" carry a local structure, a step used in the later Graph Minors papers.

None of these statements is formalized in any proof assistant as far as a search of the Prove2Me library shows; the platform has simple-graph tree-decompositions with vertex bags (from Graph Minors V), which are a different object from the hypergraph tree-decompositions here. The mission produces machine-checked statements of the tangle-tree theorem in its original hypergraph form, together with the lemma chain the authors use. The remaining work is a formal proof of each item; (9.1) is "left to the reader" in the paper and therefore needs an argument written from scratch.

Difficulty

The naive approach takes, for every pair of tangles, a separation of minimum order distinguishing them, and tries to arrange these separations in a tree. That fails: minimum-order distinguishing separations for different pairs may cross, and no tree-decomposition makes two crossing separations. Ties among minimum-order separations must be broken consistently across all pairs at once, and even a laminar family of distinctions does not obviously yield a tree whose nodes correspond one-to-one to the tangles, as property (i) and V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} demand.

Formalization scope

  • Hypergraphs are a structure with an incidence relation on types V, E; every theorem assumes [Finite V] [Finite E] (the paper's "all hypergraphs in this paper are finite", p. 154). Subhypergraphs are pairs of a vertex set and an edge set closed under ends.
  • A tangle carries its order as a parameter: IsTangle G θ 𝒯 includes θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1. In (10.3) the tangles have independent orders θi\theta_iθi​.
  • The tree of a tree-decomposition is a SimpleGraph on Fin n that is a tree. In the goal, node iii is tit_iti​, which encodes V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} with the tit_iti​ distinct; the hypothesis n≥1n\ge1n≥1 is the paper's.
  • A tie-breaker is a function on all pairs of subhypergraphs into an arbitrary type Λ\LambdaΛ with a linear order; its axioms constrain only its values on separations. The goal quantifies over every such Λ\LambdaΛ, not just the paper's R3\mathbb R^3R3.
  • (10.3)(ii) is stated with an explicit orientation (the one forced by (i)) and for every edge minimising the λ\lambdaλ-order on the path.
  • (10.1) and (10.2) are stated for hypergraphs; §10 opens with "tangles in a graph GGG", but (10.3) applies them to hypergraphs and their proofs do not use edge sizes.
  • A trivializing formalization would make the tie-breaker axioms unsatisfiable, so that (9.3)–(10.3) hold vacuously; (9.2) is part of the mission precisely to rule this out.
  • The definitions of hypergraph, tangle and tree-decomposition are shared with the other missions of the series, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition I (tangle number equals max⁡(β,γ)\max(\beta,\gamma)max(β,γ)), II (branch-width and tree-width), III (the grid tangle) and V (pervasive classes of designs). The laminar/tie-breaker layer is reusable for any tree-of-tangles statement. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, and a formal proof of (9.1).

Selected references

  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(91)90061-n
  • J. Carmesin, R. Diestel, F. Hundertmark, M. Stein, Connectivity and tree structure in finite graphs, Combinatorica 34 (2014) 11–46. https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1611
  • R. Diestel, F. Hundertmark, S. Lemanczyk, Profiles of separations: in graphs, matroids and beyond, Combinatorica 39 (2019) 37–75. https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.07144
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

The Two-Parameter Poisson–Dirichlet Distribution Derived from a Stable Subordinator 6: n·Y_n → (1 − α)/α Almost Surely under PD(α, θ)Research Paper

Motivation

In a population divided into many species, a ranked frequency VnV_nVn​ is the fraction belonging to the nnnth most common species. The Poisson–Dirichlet distribution is a model for such random ranked frequencies. It also arises from ranked jumps of a stable subordinator, which gives the model its connection to random interval partitions. Pitman and Yor's 1997 paper develops both descriptions and studies quantities derived from the ranked sequence. Its §7.3 asks how much of the remaining total mass belongs to the nnnth ranked component when nnn is large. This is the chain factor YnY_nYn​, the quantity studied here. These interpretations and the result are in Pitman and Yor (1997).

For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, the paper first analyzes the tail ratio Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ under PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) through Proposition 11 and its Laplace transform. Proposition 14 relates PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) to that base law by a local-time density. The limiting behavior in Proposition 44 combines those two themes. The paper states both an almost-sure limit and a Gaussian fluctuation limit, but the variance printed for the latter conflicts with the variance of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​ displayed immediately before it. The mission retains the paper's almost-sure assertion as its goal and records the corrected fluctuation assertion separately. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 863–865, 890–891.

Setting

Choose 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1 and θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α. Let Y~1,Y~2,…\tilde Y_1,\tilde Y_2,\ldotsY~1​,Y~2​,… be independent random variables, where Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​ has the beta distribution with parameters (1−α,θ+nα)(1-\alpha,\theta+n\alpha)(1−α,θ+nα). Its density on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) is Γ(a+b)xa−1(1−x)b−1/(Γ(a)Γ(b))\Gamma(a+b)x^{a-1}(1-x)^{b-1}/(\Gamma(a)\Gamma(b))Γ(a+b)xa−1(1−x)b−1/(Γ(a)Γ(b)) for parameters a,b>0a,b>0a,b>0. Form the stick-breaking lengths

V~1=Y~1,V~n=(1−Y~1)⋯(1−Y~n−1)Y~n(n≥2).\tilde V_1=\tilde Y_1,\qquad \tilde V_n=(1-\tilde Y_1)\cdots(1-\tilde Y_{n-1})\tilde Y_n\quad(n\ge2).V~1​=Y~1​,V~n​=(1−Y~1​)⋯(1−Y~n−1​)Y~n​(n≥2).

Sort these lengths in decreasing order, retaining multiplicities. The law of the resulting sequence V1≥V2≥⋯V_1\ge V_2\ge\cdotsV1​≥V2​≥⋯ is PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ), exactly Definition 1 of the paper. Pitman and Yor (1997), p. 857.

For that ranked sequence, define the tail ratio and chain factor

Σn=Vn+1+Vn+2+⋯Vn,Yn=VnVn+Vn+1+⋯=11+Σn.\Sigma_n=\frac{V_{n+1}+V_{n+2}+\cdots}{V_n},\qquad Y_n=\frac{V_n}{V_n+V_{n+1}+\cdots}=\frac{1}{1+\Sigma_n}.Σn​=Vn​Vn+1​+Vn+2​+⋯​,Yn​=Vn​+Vn+1​+⋯Vn​​=1+Σn​1​.

The distinction between YnY_nYn​ and the original independent factors Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​ matters: the former is computed after ranking and is generally dependent across indices. The paper also uses the function ψα(λ)=1+α∫01(1−e−λx)x−α−1 dx\psi_\alpha(\lambda)=1+\alpha\int_0^1(1-e^{-\lambda x})x^{-\alpha-1}\,dxψα​(λ)=1+α∫01​(1−e−λx)x−α−1dx for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0. It appears in the Laplace transform of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 863–865, 890.

Formalization targets

The central target is Proposition 44, display (150): for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α,

nYn⟶1−ααalmost surely under PD(α,θ).nY_n\longrightarrow\frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\quad\text{almost surely under }\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta).nYn​⟶α1−α​almost surely under PD(α,θ).

The milestones state the distribution and Laplace transform of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ from Proposition 11(ii), its mean α/(1−α)\alpha/(1-\alpha)α/(1−α), the almost-sure limit of Σn/n\Sigma_n/nΣn​/n under PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0), and Proposition 14's change-of-measure formula. The Gaussian companion records the central limit theorem for Σn/n\Sigma_n/nΣn​/n and the corrected version of Proposition 44's display (151):

n(nYn−1−αα)⟹N ⁣(0,(1−α)2α3(2−α)).\sqrt n\left(nY_n-\frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\right) \Longrightarrow N\!\left(0,\frac{(1-\alpha)^2}{\alpha^3(2-\alpha)}\right).n​(nYn​−α1−α​)⟹N(0,α3(2−α)(1−α)2​).

The printed variance in (151) is α−2(2−α)−2\alpha^{-2}(2-\alpha)^{-2}α−2(2−α)−2. It differs from the variance forced by the preceding Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ central limit theorem: Var⁡(Σ1)=α/((2−α)(1−α)2)\operatorname{Var}(\Sigma_1)=\alpha/((2-\alpha)(1-\alpha)^2)Var(Σ1​)=α/((2−α)(1−α)2) and the derivative of x↦1/xx\mapsto1/xx↦1/x at α/(1−α)\alpha/(1-\alpha)α/(1−α) give (1−α)2/(α3(2−α))(1-\alpha)^2/(\alpha^3(2-\alpha))(1−α)2/(α3(2−α)). At α=1/2\alpha=1/2α=1/2, the corrected and printed values are 4/34/34/3 and 16/916/916/9. The verbatim milestone text preserves the paper's wording; the companion theorem discloses the correction. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 890–891.

Significance

Display (150) identifies the almost-sure scale of the ranked chain factor: YnY_nYn​ behaves like a deterministic constant divided by nnn. This makes the order of magnitude precise for every permitted θ\thetaθ, despite the dependence among ranked components. The companion fluctuation statement gives a distributional scale around that limit and exposes a numerical inconsistency in the printed version. Neither conclusion is simply a statement about the independent beta factors Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​; the paper compares the two sequences precisely because they have different limiting distributions. Pitman and Yor (1997), p. 891.

The result is proved in the paper, while its statements and their supporting definitions still need a machine-checked development. A completed formalization would make the ranked-frequency law, the tail-ratio limit, and the local-time change of measure available as separately reusable results. It would also settle the corrected variance at the level of a precise probability-law statement rather than silently adopting the paper's printed constant.

Difficulty

The tempting shortcut is to use Proposition 11(ii), which says that each Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ has the law of a sum of nnn independent copies of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​, and invoke a strong law. That information concerns each one-dimensional law separately; it does not exhibit the whole sequence (Σn)(\Sigma_n)(Σn​) as partial sums of a single independent sequence. Almost-sure convergence is a statement about their joint coupling, so the shortcut leaves a gap. The Gaussian conclusion raises a different issue: its limit must survive the change from PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) to PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ), and its variance must be consistent with the displayed variance of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​. These are the two substantive tasks beyond the calculation of the Laplace transform. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 864, 890–891.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a random ranked sequence as V:Ω→(N→R)V:\Omega\to(\mathbb N\to\mathbb R)V:Ω→(N→R) on a probability space. Its index kkk means the paper's n=k+1n=k+1n=k+1. Thus the goal uses (k+1)Yk+1(k+1)Y_{k+1}(k+1)Yk+1​, and the tail-ratio milestones use Σk+1/(k+1)\Sigma_{k+1}/(k+1)Σk+1​/(k+1). The paper's Definition 1 is represented by independent beta coordinate laws followed by a decreasing ranking. The ranking counts multiplicity using extended cardinality, so an infinite set of terms above a threshold cannot acquire a finite fallback count. The law of the ranked sequence is expressed through measurable preimages. This avoids treating a nonmeasurable ranking map as a zero measure through Measure.map.

All targets retain 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1; the θ\thetaθ targets also retain θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α. The beta law and integrals use these parameter ranges. Real expectations state integrability or square integrability where needed, preventing a nonintegrable Bochner integral or variance from supplying a fallback zero. The nonnegative change-of-measure identity uses extended nonnegative integrals, and its local time LLL is identified by the almost-sure limit nVnαnV_n^\alphanVnα​ rather than by an arbitrary extra weight or a limit operator with a default value. The Gaussian variances are positive on this parameter range, despite being represented by nonnegative real parameters in Mathlib. The formalization must use the actual tail ratio of the PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) sequence, not an independently assigned factor process.

The reusable infrastructure includes the ranked-value operation, the stick-breaking law, convolution powers, the tail-ratio and chain-factor definitions, and the bridge between PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) and PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ). Contributions that establish these interfaces or prove the displayed mean, strong law, and central limit assertions directly against them are within scope. Pitman and Yor (1997), Definition 1, Propositions 11, 14, 44.

Selected references

  • J. Pitman and M. Yor, The two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution derived from a stable subordinator, Annals of Probability 25(2):855–900, 1997. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1024404422.
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities 1: First Buffer First Serve Is Stable on Every Nonacyclic Flow Line Whose Bursty Arrival Rate Is Below CapacityResearch Paper

Motivation

Semiconductor wafer fabs are the standard example of a reentrant manufacturing line: a wafer visits the same lithography or etching station many times along a route of hundreds of steps, so each station holds parts at many different stages of completion and must decide, every time a machine frees up, which of them to serve next. Kumar (Re-entrant lines, Queueing Systems 13, 1993) singled these lines out as a third class of manufacturing systems besides flow shops and job shops, and stability of their scheduling policies became a central question in the analysis of queueing networks.

The question is sharp because the obvious conjecture is false. Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 35(3), 1990) gave a deterministic network in which a distributed policy is unstable although every machine has spare capacity, and Lu and Kumar (IEEE TAC 36(12), 1991, Example 1, p. 1409) gave a two-station reentrant line in which a buffer priority policy is unstable at load below one. Their paper then identifies policies that are always stable: first buffer first serve (FBFS, Theorem 1), last buffer first serve (Theorem 3) and the due-date policies least slack and earliest due date (Theorem 4). This mission formalizes Theorem 1.

Timeline:

  • 1990: Kumar and Seidman exhibit instability of clear-a-fraction policies under load below one.
  • 1991: Lu and Kumar prove FBFS and LBFS stable on every nonacyclic flow line with deterministic bursty arrivals, and exhibit an unstable buffer priority policy.
  • 1995–1996: Dai (Ann. Appl. Probab. 5(1), 1995) reduces positive Harris recurrence of multiclass networks to stability of fluid models; Dai and Weiss (Math. Oper. Res. 21(1), 1996) prove the FBFS and LBFS fluid models of reentrant lines stable.

Setting

A nonacyclic flow line has SSS service centers; center σ\sigmaσ has mσ≥1m_\sigma\ge1mσ​≥1 identical machines in parallel, each working on one part at a time. Every part follows the same route: it visits buffers b1,b2,…,blb_1,b_2,\dots,b_lb1​,b2​,…,bl​ in order, buffer bib_ibi​ sits at center σi\sigma_iσi​, and a part in bib_ibi​ needs τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0 time units of uninterrupted processing on one machine of σi\sigma_iσi​. The same center may appear many times along the route.

Parts enter at b1b_1b1​; part π\piπ is released at time α(π)\alpha(\pi)α(π). The releases are deterministic but may be bursty: with u(t)u(t)u(t) the number of parts released in [0,t][0,t][0,t],

u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γfor all 0≤s≤t,(1)u(t)-u(s)\le\lambda(t-s)+\gamma\qquad\text{for all }0\le s\le t,\tag{1}u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γfor all 0≤s≤t,(1)

for constants λ,γ≥0\lambda,\gamma\ge0λ,γ≥0. Each part brings wσ=∑i:σi=στi/mσw_\sigma=\sum_{i:\sigma_i=\sigma}\tau_i/m_\sigmawσ​=∑i:σi​=σ​τi​/mσ​ units of work per machine to center σ\sigmaσ, and the load is ρ=max⁡σλwσ\rho=\max_\sigma\lambda w_\sigmaρ=maxσ​λwσ​. The arrival rate is within capacity when ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 (3). At time 000 the line may hold finitely many initial parts in arbitrary buffers, some of them already in service.

A schedule is nonidling (a machine idles only if every buffer of its center is empty), nonpreemptive (a started service runs to completion) and serves the part at the head of the chosen buffer. Under FBFS a free machine at center σ\sigmaσ takes a part from bib_ibi​ only if every buffer bjb_jbj​ of σ\sigmaσ with j<ij<ij<i is empty. With e(π)e(\pi)e(π) the time part π\piπ exits after its service at blb_lbl​, the schedule is stable if there is Γ≥0\Gamma\ge0Γ≥0 with

e(π)−α(π)≤Γfor all parts π.(4)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le\Gamma\qquad\text{for all parts }\pi.\tag{4}e(π)−α(π)≤Γfor all parts π.(4)

Γ\GammaΓ may depend on the initial state as well as on λ\lambdaλ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 1409)

For every line, every λ,γ≥0\lambda,\gamma\ge0λ,γ≥0 with ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1, and every admissible FBFS run whose releases satisfy (1),

∃ Γ≥0  ∀π:e(π)≤α(π)+Γ.\exists\,\Gamma\ge0\ \ \forall\pi:\quad e(\pi)\le\alpha(\pi)+\Gamma .∃Γ≥0  ∀π:e(π)≤α(π)+Γ.

The statement fixes no constant: Γ\GammaΓ is chosen after the run.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, pp. 1409–1410)

An interval [T1,T2][T_1,T_2][T1​,T2​] is an iii-busy period if at every instant some part waits in a buffer bjb_jbj​, j≤ij\le ij≤i, at center σi\sigma_iσi​. With τˉ=max⁡jτj\bar\tau=\max_j\tau_jτˉ=maxj​τj​, Γˉi=∑j<i(Γ(j)+τj)\bar\Gamma_i=\sum_{j<i}(\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_j)Γˉi​=∑j<i​(Γ(j)+τj​) and

Γ(i)=[2τˉ+∑σj=σi, j≤iλτjΓˉi+γτjmσi][1−∑σj=σi, j≤iλτjmσi]−1,\Gamma^{(i)}=\Big[2\bar\tau+\sum_{\sigma_j=\sigma_i,\,j\le i}\frac{\lambda\tau_j\bar\Gamma_i+\gamma\tau_j}{m_{\sigma_i}}\Big]\Big[1-\sum_{\sigma_j=\sigma_i,\,j\le i}\frac{\lambda\tau_j}{m_{\sigma_i}}\Big]^{-1},Γ(i)=[2τˉ+σj​=σi​,j≤i∑​mσi​​λτj​Γˉi​+γτj​​][1−σj​=σi​,j≤i∑​mσi​​λτj​​]−1,
  1. a 1-busy period commencing at T1>0T_1>0T1​>0 has T2−T1≤Γ(1)T_2-T_1\le\Gamma^{(1)}T2​−T1​≤Γ(1);
  2. there are finite times T(i)T^{(i)}T(i) after which every iii-busy period has length at most Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i);
  3. a part arriving at bjb_jbj​ after T(j)T^{(j)}T(j) leaves bjb_jbj​ within Γ(j)+τj\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_jΓ(j)+τj​;
  4. a part released after T(l)T^{(l)}T(l) has delay at most ∑j=1l(Γ(j)+τj)\sum_{j=1}^l(\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_j)∑j=1l​(Γ(j)+τj​).

Milestone 4 has an explicit bound independent of the initial state; the goal additionally covers the finitely many parts present or released during the transient.

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the simplest "push" discipline, always serving the earliest stage first, keeps every part's delay bounded on every reentrant line whose stations have spare capacity, for every initial state and every bursty but rate-limited release pattern. By Little's law it also bounds the work in process. Together with Example 1 it shows that stability is a property of the policy, not of the load condition alone, and it gave one of the first two positive results for a whole class of reentrant lines. The explicit constants Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) make the delay guarantee quantitative after the transient.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as the platform record shows it has not been formalized: the related platform items concern the fluid models of Dai and Weiss, which have no parts, no burstiness and no nonpreemption, and a fixed instance of Example 1. This mission produces a machine-checked sample-path model of reentrant lines under buffer priority policies and a checked proof of Theorem 1 with its explicit busy-period constants. The same model serves the sibling mission on LBFS (Theorem 3 of the paper).

Difficulty

A first idea is a work-conservation argument per center: total work arriving at σ\sigmaσ grows at rate ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 per machine, so the center cannot fall behind. This fails because the work arriving at a center σ\sigmaσ from a later buffer bib_ibi​ depends on how fast the upstream centers have pushed parts to bib_ibi​, and an upstream center can release a burst that the downstream center absorbs only after other buffers have starved; Example 1 is exactly such a cascade under a different priority order. Any argument must therefore bound the delay of a part at a buffer in terms of delays it suffered upstream at other centers, uniformly in the initial state, while nonpreemption lets a part wait up to τˉ\bar\tauτˉ for a machine busy with a lower-priority buffer and the release constraint (1) controls only arrivals to b1b_1b1​, not to later buffers. On sample paths one must also show that the initial parts clear in finite time and that only finitely many parts are served in any bounded interval.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a line by a structure with SSS, mσ>0m_\sigma>0mσ​>0, l>0l>0l>0, the route center : Fin l → Fin S and processing times τ with τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0. The positivity is a pinned hypothesis: the paper leaves it implicit, its proof divides by τ1\tau_1τ1​, and its only zero processing times are those of Example 1. Buffers are 0-based: the paper's bib_ibi​ is Lean index i−1i-1i−1. The load is written λwˉ\lambda\bar wλwˉ, equal to max⁡σλwσ\max_\sigma\lambda w_\sigmamaxσ​λwσ​ for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0.

A run is a type of parts with an injective line order, a finite set of initial parts, entry buffers, release times, and for each part and buffer the start of service in WithTop ℝ, ⊤\top⊤ meaning never served. Admissibility imposes, at every t≥0t\ge0t≥0: precedence (service begins after arrival, except that initial parts may be in service at time 000), capacity mσm_\sigmamσ​, nonidling, head of buffer with ties broken by the line order, and the priority rule. All counts use Set.encard. The theorems hold for every admissible run, not for one particular tie-breaking schedule. The constants Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) are definitions computed from the line and λ,γ\lambda,\gammaλ,γ; the times T(i)T^{(i)}T(i) are existential after the run.

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out: start times in ℝ would make every part served by construction and stability half empty, and a capacity constraint stated with Set.ncard would be vacuous for infinitely many parts. Γ\GammaΓ never depends on the part. A sanity file exhibits a nontrivial admissible run satisfying (1) and checks that the empty run is admissible and stable.

The page prints Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) (p. 1410) as a product of the two brackets; the inequality it is solved from gives the quotient, which is also the printed form of Γ(1)\Gamma^{(1)}Γ(1), and the formalization uses the quotient.

The sample-path model (Line, Run, Admissible, Arrivals, Stable) is reusable for any buffer priority policy and for the LBFS mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in the listed order, lemmas on finiteness of the parts served in bounded time, and interval-counting lemmas for busy periods. Not posed here: Example 1, which is already on the platform as an open problem (QueueingStability.LuKumar.theorem31), Theorems 2–3 (LBFS, sibling mission), Theorems 4–5 and Corollary 1 (due-date policies, several flow lines).

Selected references

  • S. H. Lu and P. R. Kumar, Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 36(12), 1991, pp. 1406–1416. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.106156
  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3), 1990, pp. 289–298. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • P. R. Kumar, Re-entrant lines, Queueing Systems 13, 1993, pp. 87–110. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01158927
  • J. G. Dai, On positive Harris recurrence of multiclass queueing networks: a unified approach via fluid limit models, Annals of Applied Probability 5(1), 1995, pp. 49–77. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177004828
  • J. G. Dai and G. Weiss, Stability and instability of fluid models for reentrant lines, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(1), 1996, pp. 115–134. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.21.1.115
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems 2: Stable and Unstable Modes Coexist Under Clearing on a Two-Part-Type SystemResearch Paper

Motivation

Flexible manufacturing systems are often scheduled by simple distributed rules: each machine looks only at its own buffers and decides, in real time, which part type to work on next. Switching from one part type to another costs a set-up time during which the machine produces nothing, so a natural rule is to work on a buffer until it is empty and only then switch. Perkins and Kumar (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34, 1989; reference [18] of the paper) showed that such clearing policies, and in particular clear-a-fraction policies, keep every buffer bounded on acyclic systems whenever each machine has spare capacity. Whether the same holds when material flows around a cycle of machines was left open.

Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 35(3), 1990) answered it negatively by two examples. Example 1 is a single re-entrant part type. Example 2, the subject of this mission, has two part types, neither of which ever revisits a machine, and shows two further phenomena: instability without re-entrance, and the coexistence, for one and the same system, of a bounded periodic regime and an unbounded one, selected only by the initial state.

Setting

A manufacturing system has part types ppp arriving at rates dpd_pdp​ and machines mmm. Parts of type ppp follow a fixed route; at stage iii they wait in buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​ at machine μp,i\mu_{p,i}μp,i​, and processing one of them takes τp,i\tau_{p,i}τp,i​. Switching a machine from buffer bbb to buffer b′b'b′ takes the set-up time δb,b′\delta_{b,b'}δb,b′​. Flows are continuous: xb(t)x_b(t)xb​(t) is the level of buffer bbb, ub(t)u_b(t)ub​(t) and yb(t)y_b(t)yb​(t) are its cumulative input and output, and

xb(t)=xb(0)+ub(t)−yb(t)≥0.x_b(t)=x_b(0)+u_b(t)-y_b(t)\ge 0 .xb​(t)=xb​(0)+ub​(t)−yb​(t)≥0.

A machine works in runs: a set-up for a buffer, then processing it at rate 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while it is nonempty, and at the rate of its inflow while it is empty. A clearing policy (Definition 1) keeps a machine on a buffer bbb until the first time that bbb is empty and another of its buffers is nonempty, and then sets it up for one of those. The system is stable if sup⁡0≤t<∞xb(t)<∞\sup_{0\le t<\infty}x_b(t)<\inftysup0≤t<∞​xb​(t)<∞ for every buffer bbb.

Example 2 (Fig. 3) has two part types with d1=d2=1d_1=d_2=1d1​=d2​=1 and two machines. Part type 1 visits buffer 1 at machine 1 and then buffer 2 at machine 2; part type 2 visits buffer 3 at machine 2 and then buffer 4 at machine 1. Processing times are τ1,…,τ4\tau_1,\dots,\tau_4τ1​,…,τ4​ and setting up to buffer kkk takes δk>0\delta_k>0δk​>0. The parameters satisfy the capacity condition (1), τ1+τ4<1\tau_1+\tau_4<1τ1​+τ4​<1 and τ2+τ3<1\tau_2+\tau_3<1τ2​+τ3​<1, and

τ2+τ4>1,δ1+δ41−τ1−τ4=δ2+δ31−τ2−τ3=:η,δ4<(1−τ3−τ4)η,δ2<(1−τ1−τ2)η,\tau_2+\tau_4>1,\qquad \frac{\delta_1+\delta_4}{1-\tau_1-\tau_4}=\frac{\delta_2+\delta_3}{1-\tau_2-\tau_3}=:\eta,\qquad \delta_4<(1-\tau_3-\tau_4)\eta,\qquad \delta_2<(1-\tau_1-\tau_2)\eta,τ2​+τ4​>1,1−τ1​−τ4​δ1​+δ4​​=1−τ2​−τ3​δ2​+δ3​​=:η,δ4​<(1−τ3​−τ4​)η,δ2​<(1−τ1​−τ2​)η,

conditions (7)–(10). The paper's feasible instance is (τ1,τ2,τ3,τ4,δ1,δ2,δ3,δ4)=(14,12,14,23,130,15,120,120)(\tau_1,\tau_2,\tau_3,\tau_4,\delta_1,\delta_2,\delta_3,\delta_4)=(\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac14,\tfrac23,\tfrac1{30},\tfrac15,\tfrac1{20},\tfrac1{20})(τ1​,τ2​,τ3​,τ4​,δ1​,δ2​,δ3​,δ4​)=(41​,21​,41​,32​,301​,51​,201​,201​), with η=1\eta=1η=1. For this system there is exactly one clearing policy.

Formalization targets

Goal: stable and unstable modes coexist

For every parameter set satisfying (1) and (7)–(10):

from x(0)=(0,η,0,η), set-ups (b1,b3): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;∃ ξ0 ∀ ξ≥ξ0, from x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0), set-ups (b4,b3): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has sup⁡t≥0x1(t)=+∞.\begin{aligned} &\text{from } x(0)=(0,\eta,0,\eta),\ \text{set-ups } (b_1,b_3):\ \text{a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;}\\ &\exists\,\xi_0\ \forall\,\xi\ge\xi_0,\ \text{from } x(0)=(\xi,0,0,0),\ \text{set-ups } (b_4,b_3):\ \text{a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has } \sup_{t\ge0}x_1(t)=+\infty . \end{aligned}​from x(0)=(0,η,0,η), set-ups (b1​,b3​): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;∃ξ0​ ∀ξ≥ξ0​, from x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0), set-ups (b4​,b3​): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has t≥0sup​x1​(t)=+∞.​

Milestones

  1. Case 1, periodic regime: under (1) and (8)–(10), every clearing trajectory from (0,η,0,η)(0,\eta,0,\eta)(0,η,0,η), (b1,b3)(b_1,b_3)(b1​,b3​) satisfies x(η)=(0,η,0,η)x(\eta)=(0,\eta,0,\eta)x(η)=(0,η,0,η) with the same set-ups.
  2. Case 2, Stage 8: under (1) and (7), for large ξ\xiξ, with t9=(ξ+τ2−1(δ1+δ2))/(τ2−1−1)t_9=(\xi+\tau_2^{-1}(\delta_1+\delta_2))/(\tau_2^{-1}-1)t9​=(ξ+τ2−1​(δ1​+δ2​))/(τ2−1​−1): x(t9)=(0,0,t9−δ1,0)x(t_9)=(0,0,t_9-\delta_1,0)x(t9​)=(0,0,t9​−δ1​,0), machine 1 set up for buffer 1, machine 2 for buffer 2.
  3. Case 2, full cycle: under (1) and (7), for large ξ\xiξ, at an explicit time t17t_{17}t17​, x(t17)=(λξ+α,0,0,0)x(t_{17})=(\lambda\xi+\alpha,0,0,0)x(t17​)=(λξ+α,0,0,0) with set-ups (b4,b3)(b_4,b_3)(b4​,b3​), where λ=τ2τ4/((1−τ2)(1−τ4))>1\lambda=\tau_2\tau_4/((1-\tau_2)(1-\tau_4))>1λ=τ2​τ4​/((1−τ2​)(1−τ4​))>1.

Significance

The result shows that stability of a scheduling policy is a property of the initial state as well as of the system: the same parameters admit a bounded periodic orbit and an orbit along which the backlog of buffer 1 is multiplied by λ>1\lambda>1λ>1 in every cycle. The capacity condition (1) holds throughout, so the instability does not come from overload: spare capacity is lost because one machine starves the other. The example also shows that a cycle in the machine graph suffices, without any part type revisiting a machine. Sections IV and V of the paper respond to this by giving a stronger capacity condition under which clear-a-fraction policies are stable, and a supervisory mechanism that stabilizes any policy.

The paper's argument is a stage-by-stage computation of a piecewise-linear trajectory. It has not been machine-checked. A formalization fixes what a clearing trajectory is (including the switching instants at which a buffer is empty but just starting to fill), proves that the trajectories exist and are determined by the initial state, and checks the paper's closed forms. One printed constant is wrong: the offset α\alphaα of the full cycle lacks a final −δ3-\delta_3−δ3​, and the milestone states the corrected value.

Difficulty

The computations within each stage are linear algebra. The difficulty is the event structure. Every stage depends on the order in which the two machines' events occur: whether machine 1 clears buffer 1 before machine 2 has finished its set-ups, whether buffer 2 is still nonempty when buffer 1 empties, and so on. These orderings hold only for ξ\xiξ large, or only because (8) holds with equality and (9)–(10) hold strictly. The periodic regime depends on exact synchronization. In Case 2, a machine processing an empty buffer at the reduced rate must not be forced off it while its other buffer is empty and not yet fed. A proof must also establish existence of each trajectory, not only compute it.

Formalization scope

  • Model. The general system has part types Fin P, machines Fin M, buffers as pairs (p,i)(p,i)(p,i) with Lean index iii for paper stage i+1i+1i+1, real time, and no transport delay or assembly (as in the paper). Example 2 is an instance of this general model, with machines 1, 2 as Lean 0, 1.
  • Runs. Each machine follows a sequence of runs. Run 0 is on the initial set-up and has no set-up phase. Run k≥1k\ge1k≥1 has a set-up phase of length δβk−1,βk\delta_{\beta_{k-1},\beta_k}δβk−1​,βk​​, followed by a processing phase. Runs are never cut during a set-up. If there are infinitely many runs, their start times tend to ∞\infty∞. There is no idling outside runs: a machine serving an empty buffer passes on its inflow.
  • Set-up times. They depend only on the target buffer, and δb,b=0\delta_{b,b}=0δb,b​=0 is never used.
  • Processing law. The rate cap is yb(t)−yb(s)≤(1/τb)⋅y_b(t)-y_b(s)\le(1/\tau_b)\cdotyb​(t)−yb​(s)≤(1/τb​)⋅(processing time of bbb in [s,t][s,t][s,t]). Rate is exactly 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while the machine is processing a nonempty buffer.
  • Clearing. "Nonempty" in Definition 1 is read as demanding: positive level, or cumulative input strictly increasing from that instant. Under the literal reading the paper's own switching instants would not be "first times", and no clearing trajectory would exist from these initial states. The no-early-exit condition is imposed on the open processing interval.
  • Set up for bbb at ttt. At t>0t>0t>0 this refers to the run whose interval (sk,sk+1](s_k,s_{k+1}](sk​,sk+1​] contains ttt.
  • Ruling out trivial formalizations. The goal asserts existence of a clearing trajectory in both modes, so neither "every trajectory is bounded" nor "every trajectory is unbounded" can hold vacuously. η\etaη is computed from the data rather than pinned by hypotheses, and (8) is an equality.

Contributions welcome: existence and uniqueness of clearing trajectories for the two-machine instance, the event-ordering lemmas for large ξ\xiξ, the restart (time-shift) property of trajectories, and the three milestones.

Selected references

  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3):289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. R. Perkins and P. R. Kumar, Stable, distributed, real-time scheduling of flexible manufacturing/assembly/disassembly systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 34:139–148, February 1989 (reference [18] of the paper).
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Control TheoryConvex OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Duality in Constrained Portfolio Optimization II: The Dual Problem Attains Its Infimum, So an Optimal Constrained Portfolio–Consumption Pair Exists for Every Initial CapitalResearch Paper

Motivation

Portfolio decisions in continuous time must respect both market uncertainty and investment restrictions. A ban on short sales, for example, restricts the vector of wealth fractions a trader may hold at every instant. The corresponding optimal consumption and investment problem is harder than its unrestricted counterpart because a candidate portfolio obtained from the usual pricing equations may violate the constraint. Cvitanić and Karatzas introduced auxiliary markets indexed by a process and used a dual optimization problem to establish existence of an optimal constrained policy in their 1992 paper. This mission formalizes the paper's existence theorem, Theorem 13.1, together with the results in Sections 12–13 that specify its dual target.

Setting

Fix a finite horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a complete probability space carrying a standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion WWW. Information at time ttt is the probability augmentation of the filtration generated by WWW up to ttt. A bond earns short rate rtr_trt​; ddd stocks have appreciation vector btb_tbt​ and volatility matrix σt\sigma_tσt​. The market assumptions require progressively measurable coefficients, a uniform lower bound on rrr, uniform nondegeneracy of σσT\sigma\sigma^{\mathsf T}σσT, finite expected interest-rate integral, and finite energy of the market price of risk θ=σ−1(b−r1)\theta=\sigma^{-1}(b-r\mathbf1)θ=σ−1(b−r1) §2.

A portfolio πt\pi_tπt​ specifies fractions of wealth held in the stocks, while ct≥0c_t\geq0ct​≥0 is consumption and XtX_tXt​ is wealth. The feasible portfolios lie in a fixed nonempty closed convex set K⊆RdK\subseteq\mathbb R^dK⊆Rd. Its support function is δK(v)=sup⁡π∈K(−π⋅v)\delta_K(v)=\sup_{\pi\in K}(-\pi\cdot v)δK​(v)=supπ∈K​(−π⋅v), which may equal +∞+\infty+∞. The process ν\nuν indexing an auxiliary market belongs to D\mathcal DD when it has finite expected quadratic energy and finite expected integrated support value. Its deflator HνH_\nuHν​ combines an interest-rate discount with a Brownian exponential. The class D′\mathcal D'D′ consists of those ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D for which the budget map Xν(y)\mathcal X_\nu(y)Xν​(y) is finite for every y>0y>0y>0 §§4, 8.

The running utility U1(t,c)U_1(t,c)U1​(t,c) and terminal utility U2(XT)U_2(X_T)U2​(XT​) are strictly increasing and strictly concave for positive arguments. An admissible constrained policy has nonnegative wealth, finite expected negative utility, and πt∈K\pi_t\in Kπt​∈K for Lebesgue-time times probability almost every (t,ω)(t,\omega)(t,ω). The primal value V(x)V(x)V(x) is the supremum of its expected utility over all such policies with initial capital x>0x>0x>0. The dual value V~(y)\widetilde V(y)V(y) is the infimum, over ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D, of expected conjugate utility evaluated at yHνyH_\nuyHν​ §§5–6, 12.

Formalization targets

Dual attainment

The first conclusion of Theorem 13.1 is the paper's condition (12.9):

∀y>0∃λy∈D′V~(y)=J~(y;λy).\forall y>0\quad\exists\lambda_y\in\mathcal D'\quad\widetilde V(y)=\widetilde J(y;\lambda_y).∀y>0∃λy​∈D′V(y)=J(y;λy​).

Thus the infimum is attained by a drift with a finite budget map. It is a conclusion of this mission, even though earlier Section 12 results assume it. The milestones include weak duality (12.8), the dual representation of Proposition 12.1, the capital-matching result of Proposition 12.2, and the analytic properties of the extended dual functional in Proposition 13.2 pp. 792–795.

An optimal constrained policy for every capital

The theorem's second conclusion is

∀x>0∃(π^,c^,X^)∈A′(x)∀(π,c,X)∈A′(x),J(π,c,X)≤J(π^,c^,X^).\forall x>0\quad\exists (\widehat\pi,\widehat c,\widehat X)\in\mathcal A'(x)\quad\forall(\pi,c,X)\in\mathcal A'(x),\quad J(\pi,c,X)\leq J(\widehat\pi,\widehat c,\widehat X).∀x>0∃(π,c,X)∈A′(x)∀(π,c,X)∈A′(x),J(π,c,X)≤J(π,c,X).

Here A′(x)\mathcal A'(x)A′(x) is the constrained admissible class. Theorem 12.4 establishes this conclusion when dual attainment is assumed; Theorem 13.1 provides that assumption under the paper's stated utility and dual-finiteness conditions p. 794.

Significance

The result supplies an optimizer, rather than only a bound on the best attainable utility. It also identifies a minimizing auxiliary market for every positive dual parameter, making the dual description usable at a specified initial capital. The dual representation links the primal value to a convex function that can be studied without choosing a constrained policy first §§12–13.

The theorem is proved in the paper; the remaining work here is a machine-checked development of its definitions, hypotheses, and existence argument. The mission also produces reusable definitions of an almost-surely square-integrable Brownian integral relation, extended-real utility expectations, an extended support function, and constrained wealth classes. The Brownian state space and predictable step-sum substrate credit the published Ethier–Kurtz formalizations. The paper refers some analytic steps to earlier works instead of reproducing full proofs, including Lemma 12.3 and a final finiteness argument pp. 793–796.

Difficulty

Weak duality alone only bounds the constrained value from above. It does not supply a minimizer of J~(y;ν)\widetilde J(y;\nu)J(y;ν), and an arbitrary minimizing auxiliary process need not belong to D′\mathcal D'D′. The dual functional must retain meaningful infinite values on the full finite-energy process space H\mathcal HH; replacing them with total-operation defaults can turn the needed coercivity and lower-semicontinuity statements into different claims. Even after dual attainment, the minimizing parameter for a prescribed capital must match the budget map Xλy(y)\mathcal X_{\lambda_y}(y)Xλy​​(y) §§12–13. These are the precise gaps between a numerical bound and the asserted optimal policy.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Rd\mathbb R^dRd with its Euclidean norm, a finite positive horizon, a complete probability measure, and the augmented Brownian filtration. Processes are functions of time and sample point; ℓ⊗P\ell\otimes Pℓ⊗P almost-everywhere restrictions on portfolios and auxiliary drifts are distinct from pathwise PPP-almost-sure statements. A policy is represented by a triple (π,c,X)(\pi,c,X)(π,c,X) whose wealth process satisfies the integral equation, matching the paper's pair together with its unique wealth solution. The integral operator is bound to the local Itô construction by predictable step approximations; it is not a free function. Integrands must be in its almost-sure square-integrable domain.

Support values, utility at zero, expected utility, and value functions use extended reals. The extension U(0)U(0)U(0) is the right limit U(0+)U(0+)U(0+); an extended-real supremum defines conjugate utility where zero arguments arise. The inverse marginal is a positive-argument inverse of U′U'U′. The minimization in V~\widetilde VV ranges over D\mathcal DD, while (12.9) asks for a minimizer in D′\mathcal D'D′. Its witnesses λy\lambda_yλy​ remain explicit choices in statements involving Xλy\mathcal X_{\lambda_y}Xλy​​; no default-valued inverse Yν\mathcal Y_\nuYν​ is introduced. The functional J~y\widetilde J_yJy​ of (13.3) is defined on H\mathcal HH, uses the paper's formula on G\mathcal GG, and is +∞+\infty+∞ off G\mathcal GG. On D\mathcal DD it agrees almost everywhere with the original dual objective, an equality requiring a formal lemma. Assumption 6.2 and conditions (5.8), (8.25), (12.2), (12.3), and (12.11) are explicit. Their quantifiers cover both utilities and every time in [0,T][0,T][0,T] where stated. The mission rules out a vacuous dual-attainment hypothesis, a zero default for an unbounded support supremum, and an unconstrained stochastic-integral operator. Contributions proving the source milestones and the analytic lemmas they need are in scope.

Selected references

  • Jakša Cvitanić and Ioannis Karatzas, Convex Duality in Constrained Portfolio Optimization, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(4), 1992, 767–818. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1177005576.
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Homogeneous Approximation, Recursive Observer Design, and Output Feedback: Global Asymptotic Stabilization of a Chain of Integrators by a Homogeneous-in-the-Bi-Limit Output FeedbackResearch Paper

Motivation

Many nonlinear control systems behave like a chain of integrators, x˙1=x2,…,x˙n=u\dot x_1=x_2,\dots,\dot x_n=ux˙1​=x2​,…,x˙n​=u, with additional terms that are small either near the origin or far from it. Designs based on weighted homogeneity handle such systems by making the closed loop invariant under a dilation, which gives robustness to perturbations that are dominated by the homogeneous part (Rosier, Homogeneous Lyapunov function for homogeneous continuous vector field, Systems & Control Letters, 1992, doi:10.1016/0167-6911(92)90078-7). A single homogeneous approximation, however, describes the system only at one scale. A perturbation that is negligible near the origin may dominate at infinity, and a design tuned to the origin can then fail globally.

Andrieu, Praly and Astolfi (arXiv:0903.0298v1; SIAM J. Control Optim., 2008, doi:10.1137/060675861) introduce homogeneity in the bi-limit: a function or vector field has one homogeneous approximation near the origin and another, possibly with different weights and degree, at infinity. They develop the basic calculus of this notion, a converse Lyapunov theorem for it, a recursive observer and a recursive state feedback for the chain of integrators, and combine them into a global output feedback. This mission formalizes that output-feedback result and the chain of results it rests on.

Setting

For a weight r=(r1,…,rn)r=(r_1,\dots,r_n)r=(r1​,…,rn​) with all ri>0r_i>0ri​>0 and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the dilation is λr⋄x=(λr1x1,…,λrnxn)\lambda^r\diamond x=(\lambda^{r_1}x_1,\dots,\lambda^{r_n}x_n)λr⋄x=(λr1​x1​,…,λrn​xn​). A continuous function ϕ:Rn→R\phi:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rϕ:Rn→R is homogeneous in the 0-limit with triple (r0,d0,ϕ0)(r_0,d_0,\phi_0)(r0​,d0​,ϕ0​), degree d0≥0d_0\ge0d0​≥0, if ϕ0\phi_0ϕ0​ is continuous and not identically zero and, for every compact C⊆Rn∖{0}C\subseteq\mathbb R^n\setminus\{0\}C⊆Rn∖{0} and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, there is λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0 such that

max⁡x∈C∣ϕ(λr0⋄x)λd0−ϕ0(x)∣≤εfor all λ∈(0,λ0].\max_{x\in C}\left|\frac{\phi(\lambda^{r_0}\diamond x)}{\lambda^{d_0}}-\phi_0(x)\right|\le\varepsilon\qquad\text{for all }\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0].x∈Cmax​​λd0​ϕ(λr0​⋄x)​−ϕ0​(x)​≤εfor all λ∈(0,λ0​].

Homogeneity in the ∞-limit with triple (r∞,d∞,ϕ∞)(r_\infty,d_\infty,\phi_\infty)(r∞​,d∞​,ϕ∞​) is the same statement for all λ≥λ∞\lambda\ge\lambda_\inftyλ≥λ∞​. A vector field f=(f1,…,fn)f=(f_1,\dots,f_n)f=(f1​,…,fn​) is homogeneous with triple (r,d,f0)(r,\mathfrak d,f_0)(r,d,f0​), d∈R\mathfrak d\in\mathbb Rd∈R, when each fif_ifi​ is homogeneous with triple (r,d+ri,f0,i)(r,\mathfrak d+r_i,f_{0,i})(r,d+ri​,f0,i​) and d+ri≥0\mathfrak d+r_i\ge0d+ri​≥0. Bi-limit means both at once.

For the chain of integrators, Snx=(x2,…,xn,0)TS_n x=(x_2,\dots,x_n,0)^TSn​x=(x2​,…,xn​,0)T and Bn=(0,…,0,1)TB_n=(0,\dots,0,1)^TBn​=(0,…,0,1)T. Given degrees d0,d∞∈(−1,1n−1)\mathfrak d_0,\mathfrak d_\infty\in(-1,\frac1{n-1})d0​,d∞​∈(−1,n−11​), the weights are

r0,i=1−d0(n−i),r∞,i=1−d∞(n−i),i=1,…,n.r_{0,i}=1-\mathfrak d_0(n-i),\qquad r_{\infty,i}=1-\mathfrak d_\infty(n-i),\qquad i=1,\dots,n .r0,i​=1−d0​(n−i),r∞,i​=1−d∞​(n−i),i=1,…,n.

The output feedback studied is

x˙=Snx+Bnu,y=x1,X^˙n=L(SnX^n+Bnϕn(X^n)+K1(x1−x^1)),u=Lnϕn(X^n),\dot x=S_nx+B_nu,\quad y=x_1,\qquad \dot{\hat{\mathfrak X}}_n=L\bigl(S_n\hat{\mathfrak X}_n+B_n\phi_n(\hat{\mathfrak X}_n)+K_1(x_1-\hat x_1)\bigr),\quad u=L^n\phi_n(\hat{\mathfrak X}_n),x˙=Sn​x+Bn​u,y=x1​,X^˙n​=L(Sn​X^n​+Bn​ϕn​(X^n​)+K1​(x1​−x^1​)),u=Lnϕn​(X^n​),

with a gain L>0L>0L>0, a state feedback ϕn:Rn→R\phi_n:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rϕn​:Rn→R and an output-injection vector field K1:Rn→RnK_1:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nK1​:Rn→Rn, where K1(s)K_1(s)K1​(s) means K1(s,0,…,0)K_1(s,0,\dots,0)K1​(s,0,…,0). Its homogeneous approximations are the same closed loop with (ϕn,0,K1,0)(\phi_{n,0},K_{1,0})(ϕn,0​,K1,0​) and with (ϕn,∞,K1,∞)(\phi_{n,\infty},K_{1,\infty})(ϕn,∞​,K1,∞​) in place of (ϕn,K1)(\phi_n,K_1)(ϕn​,K1​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

For n≥2n\ge2n≥2 and d0,d∞∈(−1,1n−1)\mathfrak d_0,\mathfrak d_\infty\in(-1,\frac1{n-1})d0​,d∞​∈(−1,n−11​) there exist ϕn\phi_nϕn​, homogeneous in the bi-limit with triples (r0,1+d0,ϕn,0)(r_0,1+\mathfrak d_0,\phi_{n,0})(r0​,1+d0​,ϕn,0​) and (r∞,1+d∞,ϕn,∞)(r_\infty,1+\mathfrak d_\infty,\phi_{n,\infty})(r∞​,1+d∞​,ϕn,∞​), and K1K_1K1​, homogeneous in the bi-limit with triples (r0,d0,K1,0)(r_0,\mathfrak d_0,K_{1,0})(r0​,d0​,K1,0​) and (r∞,d∞,K1,∞)(r_\infty,\mathfrak d_\infty,K_{1,\infty})(r∞​,d∞​,K1,∞​), such that

∀L>0:0∈R2n is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.\forall L>0:\quad 0\in\mathbb R^{2n}\text{ is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.}∀L>0:0∈R2n is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.

The pair (ϕn,K1)(\phi_n,K_1)(ϕn​,K1​) is fixed before LLL. No constant appears in the goal.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.10 (composition) and Proposition 2.12 (integration along a coordinate) preserve homogeneity in the limit.
  2. Lemma 2.13: for homogeneous η\etaη and γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0 with η<0\eta<0η<0 where γ=0\gamma=0γ=0, η−cγ<0\eta-c\gamma<0η−cγ<0 off the origin for all large ccc, simultaneously for both approximations.
  3. Theorem 2.20: a converse Lyapunov theorem, giving a C1C^1C1 proper Lyapunov function whose gradient is homogeneous in the bi-limit.
  4. Theorem 3.1 and display (3.12): the recursive observer, an output injection K1K_1K1​ making E˙=SnE+K1(e1)\dot E=S_nE+K_1(e_1)E˙=Sn​E+K1​(e1​) and its approximations globally asymptotically stable.
  5. Theorem 4.1 and display (4.9): the recursive state feedback, a ϕn\phi_nϕn​ making X˙=SnX+Bnϕn(X)\dot{\mathfrak X}=S_n\mathfrak X+B_n\phi_n(\mathfrak X)X˙=Sn​X+Bn​ϕn​(X) and its approximations globally asymptotically stable.

Significance

The theorem gives a single dynamic output feedback for the chain of integrators that is homogeneous with prescribed degrees near the origin and at infinity, and that stabilizes globally for every gain L>0L>0L>0. Because the degrees at the two ends are independent, the same design can be matched to perturbations of different orders at small and large amplitudes; the paper derives from it output-feedback stabilizers for systems in feedback and feedforward form (Corollaries 5.2 and 5.3), which are outside this mission. The converse Lyapunov theorem (Theorem 2.20) and the key lemma (Lemma 2.13) are general tools for any vector field homogeneous in the bi-limit.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor the notion of homogeneity in the bi-limit, has a machine-checked proof. The platform has a definition of global asymptotic stability for continuous vector fields (from the series on Chitour, Ushirobira, Efimov and Perruquetti's prescribed-time stabilization) and Mathlib has the needed analysis, but there is no converse Lyapunov theorem and no theory of weighted homogeneous vector fields. A complete formalization would supply both.

Difficulty

Lyapunov arguments for homogeneous systems usually compare a function with its homogeneous approximation on the unit sphere and then scale. With homogeneity in the bi-limit the comparison holds only for small or for large dilation parameters, with no control at intermediate scales, and the two approximations have different weights, so no single dilation brings the whole space to a compact set. Each statement has to hold for the system and for both approximations at once. Theorem 2.20 additionally requires a converse Lyapunov theorem for continuous, non-Lipschitz vector fields whose solutions need not be unique, so a flow map is not available. Finally, the gain LLL in the goal is arbitrary: an argument that only works for LLL large enough proves a weaker statement.

Formalization scope

Points of Rn\mathbb R^nRn are functions Fin n → ℝ, with the paper's coordinate xix_ixi​ at index i−1i-1i−1; the closed loop lives on Fin (n + n) → ℝ with xxx first and X^n\hat{\mathfrak X}_nX^n​ second. Real powers are Real.rpow; the signed power is wr=sign⁡(w)∣w∣rw^r=\operatorname{sign}(w)|w|^rwr=sign(w)∣w∣r. Every clause of Definitions 2.1, 2.3 and 2.5 is kept: positive weights, nonnegative function degrees, continuity, approximating functions not identically zero, uniformity on compact subsets of Rn∖{0}\mathbb R^n\setminus\{0\}Rn∖{0}. Dropping any of them makes the goal weaker than the paper's.

Global asymptotic stability reuses the published ChitourPrescribedTime.FixedTime.GloballyAsymptoticallyStable on the Euclidean space, applied to the time-invariant field: the origin is an equilibrium, every initial state has a solution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and stability and uniform attractivity hold for every solution. The mission adds that no solution escapes to infinity in finite time, so that every solution is covered; for continuous autonomous fields this is the textbook notion. Positive and negative definiteness, properness (V→∞V\to\inftyV→∞ along the cocompact filter), C1C^1C1 and partial derivatives (Fréchet derivative on a basis vector) are defined in the mission's definition files.

Corrections and readings, each disclosed in the item concerned:

  • Proposition 2.10 is false as printed. The composite approximation ζ0∘ϕ0\zeta_0\circ\phi_0ζ0​∘ϕ0​ can vanish identically, and in the ∞-limit a degree-0 outer function fails. Both extra hypotheses are added.
  • (5.2) prints K1(x1−x^1)K_1(x_1-\hat x_1)K1​(x1​−x^1​) while (3.3) and (5.9) use x^1−x1\hat x_1-x_1x^1​−x1​. The goal keeps the printed sign; since K1K_1K1​ is existential, the two readings are equivalent.
  • In Theorem 3.1 the hypothesis "GAS for these systems" covers (3.5) and both approximations, as the proof uses. In Theorem 4.1 the implicit ψi0,ψi∞\psi_{i0},\psi_{i\infty}ψi0​,ψi∞​ are existential C1C^1C1 functions, and αi+1>1\alpha_{i+1}>1αi+1​>1 is kept as printed. (4.4) and (4.9) lack the time-derivative dots.

A formalization in which the closed loop is replaced by its linearization, the homogeneity predicate is weakened to pointwise convergence, or the quantifier on LLL is moved before ϕn\phi_nϕn​ and K1K_1K1​, proves a different statement and does not close the goal. Contributions welcome: a library of weighted dilations and homogeneous functions, the converse Lyapunov theorem, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • V. Andrieu, L. Praly, A. Astolfi, Homogeneous Approximation, Recursive Observer Design, and Output Feedback, arXiv:0903.0298v1, 2009 (SIAM J. Control Optim. 47(4), 2008). https://arxiv.org/abs/0903.0298
  • L. Rosier, Homogeneous Lyapunov function for homogeneous continuous vector field, Systems & Control Letters 19(6), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(92)90078-7
  • A. Bacciotti, L. Rosier, Liapunov Functions and Stability in Control Theory, Springer, 2nd ed., 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139028
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Inapproximability of Edge-Disjoint Paths and Low Congestion Routing on Undirected Graphs: A Random Hypergraph Instance Gives the Flow Relaxation an Integrality Gap of β₁/(4c) at Congestion c − 1Research Paper

Motivation

In the edge-disjoint paths problem (EDP) one is given an undirected graph and a list of source–sink pairs, and asks how many pairs can be connected simultaneously by paths that share no edge. Its relaxation EDP with congestion (EDPwC) allows every edge to carry up to a fixed number of paths. Both are central problems of network routing and of approximation algorithms, and the standard algorithmic tool for them is the multicommodity flow relaxation: a linear program that may split each pair's unit of demand fractionally over many paths. Rounding this LP is how most approximation algorithms for routing work, so the ratio between its optimum and the best integral routing, the integrality gap, bounds what any LP-based algorithm can achieve.

Without congestion the gap of this relaxation can be as large as Ω(V)\Omega(\sqrt V)Ω(V​) (Chekuri–Khanna–Shepherd 2006), and the question is how much a small congestion helps. Andrews, Chuzhoy, Guruswami, Khanna, Talwar and Zhang (Combinatorica 2010) proved hardness of approximation for EDPwC (their Theorems 1 and 2) and, independently and unconditionally, that the gap of the relaxation remains (log⁡V)Ω(1/c)(\log V)^{\Omega(1/c)}(logV)Ω(1/c) even when the integral solution may use congestion c−1c-1c−1 (their Theorem 5). In particular, for every fixed integer iii the gap between (1/i)(1/i)(1/i)-integral and fractional multicommodity flow in undirected graphs is superconstant. This mission formalizes Theorem 5 for EDPwC.

Setting

Fix integers n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and c≥2c\ge2c≥2. Write log⁡\loglog for log⁡2\log_2log2​ and ln⁡\lnln for the natural logarithm, and set

β1=14(log⁡n150(log⁡log⁡n)2)1/c,β2=6(2β1)c−1ln⁡β1.\beta_1=\frac14\Big(\frac{\log n}{150(\log\log n)^2}\Big)^{1/c},\qquad \beta_2=6(2\beta_1)^{c-1}\ln\beta_1 .β1​=41​(150(loglogn)2logn​)1/c,β2​=6(2β1​)c−1lnβ1​.

A random ccc-uniform hypergraph HHH on the vertex set {0,…,n−1}\{0,\dots,n-1\}{0,…,n−1} has m=⌊β2n⌋m=\lfloor\beta_2 n\rfloorm=⌊β2​n⌋ hyperedges h0,…,hm−1h_0,\dots,h_{m-1}h0​,…,hm−1​, chosen independently, each uniformly among the ccc-element subsets of the vertices.

From HHH one builds a graph G=G(H)G=G(H)G=G(H). For every hyperedge hih_ihi​ it has two vertices ℓi,ri\ell_i,r_iℓi​,ri​ joined by a special edge; for every vertex vvv of HHH it has a source s(v)s(v)s(v) and a sink t(v)t(v)t(v). If vvv lies in the hyperedges hi1,…,hikh_{i_1},\dots,h_{i_k}hi1​​,…,hik​​ with i1<⋯<iki_1<\dots<i_ki1​<⋯<ik​, the regular edges (s(v),ℓi1)(s(v),\ell_{i_1})(s(v),ℓi1​​), (rij,ℓij+1)(r_{i_j},\ell_{i_{j+1}})(rij​​,ℓij+1​​) for 1≤j<k1\le j<k1≤j<k, and (rik,t(v))(r_{i_k},t(v))(rik​​,t(v)) are added. The canonical path of vvv is P(v)=(s(v),ℓi1,ri1,…,ℓik,rik,t(v))P(v)=(s(v),\ell_{i_1},r_{i_1},\dots,\ell_{i_k},r_{i_k},t(v))P(v)=(s(v),ℓi1​​,ri1​​,…,ℓik​​,rik​​,t(v)); it crosses the special edge of every hyperedge containing vvv. The EDP instance has one pair (s(v),t(v))(s(v),t(v))(s(v),t(v)) for each vvv.

A feasible fractional solution puts flow f(P)∈[0,1]f(P)\in[0,1]f(P)∈[0,1] on s(v)s(v)s(v)–t(v)t(v)t(v) paths PPP, with routed amount xv=∑Pf(P)≤1x_v=\sum_P f(P)\le1xv​=∑P​f(P)≤1 for each pair and at most one unit of flow through each edge; its value is ∑vxv\sum_v x_v∑v​xv​. An integral routing with congestion at most c−1c-1c−1 connects a set of pairs, each by one path, so that every edge lies on at most c−1c-1c−1 of these paths; its value is the number of connected pairs.

The analysis uses three events of HHH: E1\mathcal E_1E1​, that some set of n/β1n/\beta_1n/β1​ vertices contains no hyperedge; E2\mathcal E_2E2​, that more than n/β1n/\beta_1n/β1​ vertices lie in more than 10β2c10\beta_2c10β2​c hyperedges; and E3(g)\mathcal E_3(g)E3​(g), that the graph G′G'G′ obtained from GGG by contracting every special edge has more than (6β2c2)g+1(6\beta_2c^2)^{g+1}(6β2​c2)g+1 cycles of length at most ggg.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 for EDPwC, in the explicit form of Section 2

There are absolute constants α>0\alpha>0α>0 and N0N_0N0​ such that for all n≥N0n\ge N_0n≥N0​ and all integers ccc with 2≤c≤αlog⁡log⁡n/log⁡log⁡log⁡n2\le c\le\alpha\log\log n/\log\log\log n2≤c≤αloglogn/logloglogn some hypergraph HHH as above satisfies

∃ fractional solution of G(H) of value ncandevery congestion-(c−1) routing of G(H) routes ≤4nβ1 pairs,\exists\ \text{fractional solution of } G(H)\ \text{of value } \frac nc\qquad\text{and}\qquad \text{every congestion-}(c-1)\text{ routing of } G(H)\ \text{routes}\ \le\frac{4n}{\beta_1}\ \text{pairs},∃ fractional solution of G(H) of value cn​andevery congestion-(c−1) routing of G(H) routes ≤β1​4n​ pairs,

so the integrality gap is at least β1/(4c)\beta_1/(4c)β1​/(4c). The paper's Theorem 5 states this as Ω(1c(log⁡V/(log⁡log⁡V)2)1/(c+1))\Omega\big(\frac1{c}(\log V/(\log\log V)^2)^{1/(c+1)}\big)Ω(c1​(logV/(loglogV)2)1/(c+1)) for congestion ccc and VVV vertices; the goal keeps the paper's own Section 2 parameters, which fix the instance and leave the constants α,N0\alpha,N_0α,N0​ open.

Milestones

Lemma 6, Lemma 7 and Lemma 8 (Pr⁡[E1],Pr⁡[E2],Pr⁡[E3(g)]≤14\Pr[\mathcal E_1],\Pr[\mathcal E_2],\Pr[\mathcal E_3(g)]\le\frac14Pr[E1​],Pr[E2​],Pr[E3​(g)]≤41​); the joint good event of Section 2.4; the fractional solution of value n/cn/cn/c; and the three bounds of the gap analysis, ∣P1∣≤n/β1|\mathcal P_1|\le n/\beta_1∣P1​∣≤n/β1​ (canonical paths), ∣P2∣≤n/β1|\mathcal P_2|\le n/\beta_1∣P2​∣≤n/β1​ (long non-canonical paths), ∣P3∣≤n/β1+2gc(6β2c2)2g+2|\mathcal P_3|\le n/\beta_1+2gc(6\beta_2c^2)^{2g+2}∣P3​∣≤n/β1​+2gc(6β2​c2)2g+2 (short non-canonical paths), combined into ∣P′∣≤4n/β1|\mathcal P'|\le4n/\beta_1∣P′∣≤4n/β1​.

Significance

The result shows that the multicommodity flow relaxation cannot certify a constant-factor approximation for undirected EDPwC with any constant congestion: against integral solutions of congestion c−1c-1c−1 its gap is at least (log⁡V)Ω(1/c)(\log V)^{\Omega(1/c)}(logV)Ω(1/c). Any algorithm that compares its output with this LP inherits the bound. It complements the paper's hardness results, which hold only under a complexity assumption. The instance is a short explicit construction from a random hypergraph, so the theorem is also a statement in probabilistic combinatorics: random sparse uniform hypergraphs are, with constant probability, simultaneously "covering" (no large hyperedge-free set), of bounded degree, and nearly free of short cycles.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces one: a formal model of the path LP and of congestion-bounded integral routings on simple graphs, reusable for other routing gaps; a formal random-hypergraph model with first-moment and Chernoff-type estimates; and the deterministic gap analysis. Variants with better constants, or the stronger statement that at least a quarter of all hypergraphs work, are welcome as additional results.

Difficulty

The fractional side and the bound on canonical routings are short. The difficulty lies in two places. First, Lemma 8 bounds the expected number of short cycles of G′G'G′; the adjacency of G′G'G′ depends on all hyperedges at once (consecutiveness along each vertex's sequence), and the obvious estimate through the intersection graph of HHH fails, because many hyperedges through a common vertex form a clique there. What keeps the count small is the order structure of each vertex's hyperedge sequence, which the intersection graph forgets. Second, the bound on short non-canonical paths requires turning two distinct routing paths of a pair into a short cycle of the contracted graph and charging it with the congestion constraint. Finally, the closing estimate 2gc(6β2c2)2g+2≤n/β12gc(6\beta_2c^2)^{2g+2}\le n/\beta_12gc(6β2​c2)2g+2≤n/β1​ holds only for large nnn in the stated range of ccc, and the printed chain for it is not literally correct, so the asymptotics have to be done afresh.

Formalization scope

Vertices of HHH are Fin n, hyperedges are indexed by Fin m with m=⌊β2n⌋m=\lfloor\beta_2n\rfloorm=⌊β2​n⌋, and HHH is an element of Fin m → {s : Finset (Fin n) // s.card = c}; probabilities are normalized counts over this finite set (uniform measure, which is independence of the hyperedges). The conventions are:

  • log⁡=log⁡2\log=\log_2log=log2​ and ln⁡\lnln is natural; β1\beta_1β1​ uses a real 1/c1/c1/c-th power.
  • The paper's integers β2n\beta_2nβ2​n, n/β1n/\beta_1n/β1​ (bad-set size) and g=3β1β2c2g=3\beta_1\beta_2c^2g=3β1​β2​c2 are ⌊β2n⌋\lfloor\beta_2n\rfloor⌊β2​n⌋, ⌈n/β1⌉\lceil n/\beta_1\rceil⌈n/β1​⌉ and ⌈3β1β2c2⌉\lceil3\beta_1\beta_2c^2\rceil⌈3β1​β2​c2⌉; the thresholds n/β1n/\beta_1n/β1​, 4n/β14n/\beta_14n/β1​, 10β2c10\beta_2c10β2​c, (6β2c2)g+1(6\beta_2c^2)^{g+1}(6β2​c2)g+1 stay real.
  • "For sufficiently large nnn" and c≤O(log⁡log⁡n/log⁡log⁡log⁡n)c\le O(\log\log n/\log\log\log n)c≤O(loglogn/logloglogn) become absolute constants N0N_0N0​ and α\alphaα, quantified before nnn and ccc. Lemma 8 and the deterministic bounds carry instead the explicit inequalities on β1,β2\beta_1,\beta_2β1​,β2​ their arguments use.
  • G(H)G(H)G(H) is a simple graph (coinciding regular edges are one edge). A vertex in no hyperedge gets the edge (s(v),t(v))(s(v),t(v))(s(v),t(v)), the k=0k=0k=0 case of its canonical path; the page leaves this case out.
  • KgK_gKg​ counts cycles of G′G'G′, each once as an edge set; the paper's definition says "in GGG", its proof and use say G′G'G′.
  • Routing paths are paths (no repeated vertex); lengths count edges of G(H)G(H)G(H); canonicity is equality of vertex sequences.

The goal cannot be met by an unrelated graph: the instance must be G(H)G(H)G(H) for a hypergraph with exactly ⌊β2n⌋\lfloor\beta_2n\rfloor⌊β2​n⌋ hyperedges of size ccc on nnn vertices, the fractional solution must respect xv≤1x_v\le1xv​≤1 and capacity 111, and the integral bound is over all routings of congestion c−1c-1c−1.

Not in scope: the ANFwC half of Theorem 5, the remark on a superconstant gap at c=Θ(log⁡log⁡V/(log⁡log⁡log⁡V)2)c=\Theta(\log\log V/(\log\log\log V)^2)c=Θ(loglogV/(logloglogV)2), and the hardness results of Sections 3–5 (Theorems 1 and 2, Corollaries 3 and 4).

A complete development needs Chernoff and Markov bounds for counting measures, binomial-coefficient estimates, cycle extraction from two distinct paths in a simple graph, and the asymptotic estimates for β1,β2\beta_1,\beta_2β1​,β2​. The routing and LP definitions and the cycle-extraction lemma are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • M. Andrews, J. Chuzhoy, V. Guruswami, S. Khanna, K. Talwar, L. Zhang, Inapproximability of Edge-Disjoint Paths and Low Congestion Routing on Undirected Graphs, Combinatorica 30(5), 485–520, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00493-010-2455-9
  • C. Chekuri, S. Khanna, F. B. Shepherd, An O(n)O(\sqrt n)O(n​) approximation and integrality gap for disjoint paths and unsplittable flow, Theory of Computing 2, 137–146, 2006. https://doi.org/10.4086/toc.2006.v002a007
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Simulation Output Analysis Using Standardized Time Series 2: Every STS Interval Has liminf n^{1/2} E Lₙ ≥ 2σΦ⁻¹(1 − δ/2)Research Paper

Why expected interval length matters

A simulation run often estimates a steady-state mean without producing independent observations. A confidence interval must account for dependence in the output, and the relevant variance constant may be unknown. Standardized time series (STS) methods use the shape of an integrated output path to cancel that constant rather than estimating it separately. The resulting interval can be computed from one run, but its length can vary substantially with the chosen standardizing functional. Glynn and Iglehart introduced a common functional framework for these methods and asked how short their expected intervals can be as the run grows. Their 1990 paper identifies a universal lower bound.

The comparison is operational. A shorter confidence interval conveys a more precise estimate at the same nominal coverage. The authors also compare STS with procedures that consistently estimate the variance constant. They state that the lower bound is attained by the latter procedures and approached, but not attained, by STS intervals. The present mission isolates the bound for STS itself, Corollary 4.16. It does not make the claim that a particular STS rule attains it. This distinction follows the paper's introduction and §4.

The stochastic setting

Let Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) be a real simulation output process for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Its integrated average path at run length nnn is Y‾n(t)=n−1∫0ntY(s) ds\overline Y_n(t)=n^{-1}\int_0^{nt}Y(s)\,dsYn​(t)=n−1∫0nt​Y(s)ds for 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1. The unknown steady-state mean is μ\muμ. The paper assumes a functional central limit theorem in the space C[0,1]C[0,1]C[0,1] of continuous real paths:

Xn(t):=n(Y‾n(t)−μt) ⇒ σB(t),σ>0,X_n(t):=\sqrt n\bigl(\overline Y_n(t)-\mu t\bigr) \ \Rightarrow\ \sigma B(t),\qquad \sigma>0,Xn​(t):=n​(Yn​(t)−μt) ⇒ σB(t),σ>0,

where BBB is standard Brownian motion. Convergence is weak convergence of random continuous paths in the uniform topology. This is Assumption (2.1), rather than a claim that every output process satisfies it. The paper lists several classes of processes for which such a theorem is available under further conditions (§2, pp. 2–3).

An STS scale functional g:C[0,1]→Rg:C[0,1]\to\mathbb Rg:C[0,1]→R belongs to M\mathcal MM when it is measurable, positively homogeneous, unchanged by subtracting any multiple of the identity path k(t)=tk(t)=tk(t)=t, positive at BBB almost surely, and continuous at BBB almost surely. The last two conditions ensure that the Brownian ratio is a meaningful distributional limit. The paper also describes these functionals through the bridge map (Γx)(t)=x(t)−tx(1)(\Gamma x)(t)=x(t)-t x(1)(Γx)(t)=x(t)−tx(1): a member of M\mathcal MM can be written as b∘Γb\circ\Gammab∘Γ for a suitable bbb. Thus the scale is determined by a Brownian bridge while the endpoint B(1)B(1)B(1) is independent of it (Propositions 2.7–2.8).

Define H(x)=P{B(1)/g(B)≤x}H(x)=P\{B(1)/g(B)\le x\}H(x)=P{B(1)/g(B)≤x}. For a confidence level 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, choose endpoints α,β\alpha,\betaα,β with H(β)−H(α)=1−δH(\beta)-H(\alpha)=1-\deltaH(β)−H(α)=1−δ. The STS confidence interval from equation (2.10) has endpoints Y‾n(1)−g(Y‾n)β\overline Y_n(1)-g(\overline Y_n)\betaYn​(1)−g(Yn​)β and Y‾n(1)−g(Y‾n)α\overline Y_n(1)-g(\overline Y_n)\alphaYn​(1)−g(Yn​)α. Its length is Ln=g(Y‾n)(β−α)L_n=g(\overline Y_n)(\beta-\alpha)Ln​=g(Yn​)(β−α). Here δ\deltaδ lies strictly between zero and one; the endpoint equation is part of the construction, not an arbitrary choice.

Formalization target

The goal is Corollary 4.16 for every nonnegative g∈Mg\in\mathcal Mg∈M under Assumption (2.1). Write Φ\PhiΦ for the standard normal distribution function and p=Φ−1(1−δ/2)p=\Phi^{-1}(1-\delta/2)p=Φ−1(1−δ/2). Then

lim inf⁡n→∞n E[Ln] ≥ 2σp=2σΦ−1(1−δ/2).\liminf_{n\to\infty}\sqrt n\,E[L_n] \ \ge\ 2\sigma p =2\sigma\Phi^{-1}(1-\delta/2).n→∞liminf​n​E[Ln​] ≥ 2σp=2σΦ−1(1−δ/2).

The expectation and liminf admit +∞+\infty+∞. The statement does not impose an integrability assumption that would remove that case. It quantifies over every admissible STS functional and every interval whose endpoints have the specified Brownian confidence mass (Corollary 4.16, p. 12).

Three substantial targets precede the corollary. Proposition 4.1(a) relates scaled expected length to σE[g(B)](β−α)\sigma E[g(B)](\beta-\alpha)σE[g(B)](β−α). Proposition 4.3 says a symmetric choice of α,β\alpha,\betaα,β minimizes β−α\beta-\alphaβ−α. Theorem 4.8 gives E[g(B)]Φg−1(1−δ/2)≥Φ−1(1−δ/2)E[g(B)]\Phi^{-1}_g(1-\delta/2)\ge\Phi^{-1}(1-\delta/2)E[g(B)]Φg−1​(1−δ/2)≥Φ−1(1−δ/2), where Φg−1\Phi^{-1}_gΦg−1​ denotes the quantile of HHH. The milestone list also includes the cited Brownian independence, mixture distribution, scale invariance, and continuous mapping statements that put these targets in context.

What the bound establishes

The corollary supplies a benchmark for the asymptotic expected length of any interval in this STS class. A proposed standardizing functional cannot beat the normal-quantile constant while retaining the stated functional limit and confidence construction. It also identifies the quantity against which the paper's other interval procedures can be compared. The bound applies uniformly to the class M\mathcal MM, not to a chosen batch size or a particular form of ggg (Glynn–Iglehart 1990, §4).

The mathematical result has been proved in the source paper. This mission supplies formal statements and their shared definitions as proof targets; it does not claim that their Lean proofs already exist. A complete development would formalize the known arguments for the milestones and corollary, including the Brownian path representation, weak convergence, quantile properties, and expectation inequalities. Those components could be reused in other work on simulation output analysis and ratios of weakly convergent processes.

Where the formal proof is demanding

Weak convergence alone does not imply convergence of expectations. In particular, a continuous mapping limit for g(Xn)g(X_n)g(Xn​) cannot simply be integrated as an ordinary finite real expectation when the family is not uniformly integrable. Proposition 4.1(a) asks only for a lower bound, and its statement must still account for E[g(B)]=+∞E[g(B)]=+\inftyE[g(B)]=+∞. This is why the goal is expressed with a liminf and extended nonnegative expectations rather than a real-valued limit. A separate difficulty is that the interval width depends jointly on a distributional scale and a choice of two quantiles. Bounding either one in isolation does not state the corollary.

Formalization scope and conventions

Paths are Mathlib's C([0,1],R)C([0,1],\mathbb R)C([0,1],R) with its uniform metric and Borel sigma algebra. A standard Brownian motion is a measurable random continuous path agreeing with an R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​-indexed real Brownian motion on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The paper's discontinuity set D(g)D(g)D(g) is the set where ggg is not continuous. Assumption (2.1) includes joint measurability of YYY and finite-interval pathwise integrability so that each integrated average is defined. The path Y‾n\overline Y_nYn​ is supplied together with its defining integral equation, which determines it pointwise. Its values are not free parameters.

Indices nnn are natural numbers. At n=0n=0n=0, the average uses Lean's total division and is zero; this initial value does not affect an asymptotic statement. The positive Brownian scale σ\sigmaσ is finite. The parameters satisfy 0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1, and H(β)−H(α)=1−δH(\beta)-H(\alpha)=1-\deltaH(β)−H(α)=1−δ. The normal and STS quantiles appear as real parameters pinned by their distribution-function equations, avoiding an unbounded or empty real infimum. Expected nonnegative lengths and scales are integrals valued in R≥0∪{+∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{+\infty\}R≥0​∪{+∞}. The class N\mathcal NN explicitly requires measurability of bbb, the standing convention needed for its equality with M\mathcal MM.

The corollary retains the entire class M\mathcal MM and Assumption (2.1), with g≥0g\ge0g≥0 on all continuous paths. It cannot be replaced by a statement about a single easy functional or by assuming the bound on an auxiliary criterion. Useful contributions include the Brownian bridge independence theorem, the normal scale-mixture identity, distribution-function regularity, and the asymptotic expectation result.

Selected references

  • P. W. Glynn and D. L. Iglehart, Simulation output analysis using standardized time series, Mathematics of Operations Research 15(1):1–16, 1990. DOI: 10.1287/moor.15.1.1.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages: Under Lack of Anticipation, the Fraction of Time in B Converges a.s. iff the Fraction of Arrivals Finding B Does, to the Same LimitResearch Paper

Why arrival averages and time averages agree

Queueing analysis constantly moves between two kinds of long-run averages: the fraction of time a system spends in some set of states, and the fraction of arriving customers who find it there. Waiting-time formulas for the M/G/1 queue, blocking probabilities in loss systems and many decomposition arguments rest on the claim that, when arrivals form a Poisson process, the two coincide. This property is known as PASTA, Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages. It is used throughout queueing theory, inventory theory and the analysis of communication networks, usually without proof.

Before 1982 the property had been proved under strong extra structure:

  • Strauch (1970) proved an instantaneous version, at a fixed time point, which does not by itself give limit theorems.
  • Wolff (1970) proved a limit theorem for a stationary observed process, using particular properties of its interaction with the Poisson stream.
  • Stidham (1972) proved a limit theorem for regenerative processes, under restrictions on how regeneration points relate to the arrivals.
  • Wolff (1982), the source of this mission, proved the limit theorem with no stationarity, regeneration or ergodicity at all. The only link assumed between system and arrivals is that the system does not anticipate future arrivals. The proof uses Watanabe's (1964) martingale characterization of the Poisson process.
  • Melamed and Whitt (1990) recast the result as one instance of a general "arrivals see time averages" (ASTA) principle for arbitrary point processes.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space. On it live a process N={N(t),t≥0}N=\{N(t),t\ge0\}N={N(t),t≥0}, the state of a system, with values in an arbitrary measurable space, and a Poisson process A={A(t),t≥0}A=\{A(t),t\ge0\}A={A(t),t≥0} at rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, counting customer arrivals in (0,t](0,t](0,t]. The interaction between AAA and NNN is unspecified: arrivals may change the state.

Fix a set BBB of states with {N(t)∈B}∈F\{N(t)\in B\}\in\mathcal F{N(t)∈B}∈F for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0, and define

U(t)=1{N(t)∈B},V(t)=t−1∫0tU(s) ds,Y(t)=∫0tU(s) dA(s),Z(t)=Y(t)A(t).U(t)=\mathbf 1\{N(t)\in B\},\qquad V(t)=t^{-1}\int_0^tU(s)\,ds,\qquad Y(t)=\int_0^tU(s)\,dA(s),\qquad Z(t)=\frac{Y(t)}{A(t)}.U(t)=1{N(t)∈B},V(t)=t−1∫0t​U(s)ds,Y(t)=∫0t​U(s)dA(s),Z(t)=A(t)Y(t)​.

V(t)V(t)V(t) is the fraction of time in [0,t][0,t][0,t] that NNN is in BBB. Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) is the number of arrivals up to ttt who find NNN in BBB, and Z(t)Z(t)Z(t) is the fraction of arrivals who do.

The paths of UUU are assumed left continuous with right-hand limits w.p. 1, so that an arrival is not counted as already present at its own arrival epoch. UUU is assumed jointly measurable in (ω,t)∈Ω×[0,∞)(\omega,t)\in\Omega\times[0,\infty)(ω,t)∈Ω×[0,∞). The single structural assumption is the Lack of Anticipation Assumption (LAA):

for each t≥0t\ge0t≥0, {A(t+u)−A(t),u≥0}\{A(t+u)-A(t),u\ge0\}{A(t+u)−A(t),u≥0} and {U(s),0≤s≤t}\{U(s),0\le s\le t\}{U(s),0≤s≤t} are independent.

The paper's proof of (6) uses this independence for every event of Ft\mathcal F_tFt​, the σ-field generated by {A(s),U(s);0≤s≤t}\{A(s),U(s);0\le s\le t\}{A(s),U(s);0≤s≤t}. The mission therefore states Theorems 1–2, (6), Lemma 1, (10) and Lemma 2 under lack of anticipation with respect to Ft\mathcal F_tFt​: for each t≥0t\ge0t≥0, {A(t+u)−A(t),u≥0}\{A(t+u)-A(t),u\ge0\}{A(t+u)−A(t),u≥0} is independent of Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. This implies the printed LAA. The printed LAA together with independent increments does not give (6) or Lemma 1, because pairwise independence of the future from the past of AAA and from the past of UUU is not independence from their joint past.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 225)

Under lack of anticipation (with respect to Ft\mathcal F_tFt​, see above), for every random variable V(∞)V(\infty)V(∞),

V(t)→V(∞) w.p. 1⟺Z(t)→V(∞) w.p. 1,t→∞.V(t)\to V(\infty)\ \text{w.p. 1}\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad Z(t)\to V(\infty)\ \text{w.p. 1},\qquad t\to\infty.V(t)→V(∞) w.p. 1⟺Z(t)→V(∞) w.p. 1,t→∞.

The limit may be random, and the theorem asserts nothing about whether either average converges. It asserts only that the two converge together, to the same limit.

Milestones

The proof in §2 passes through the following statements, which form the milestone list:

  1. (2), (3): E{Y(t)}=λtE{V(t)}=λE{∫0tU(s) ds}E\{Y(t)\}=\lambda tE\{V(t)\}=\lambda E\{\int_0^tU(s)\,ds\}E{Y(t)}=λtE{V(t)}=λE{∫0t​U(s)ds}.
  2. (6): E{Y(t+h)−Y(t)∣Ft}=λE{∫tt+hU(s) ds∣Ft}E\{Y(t+h)-Y(t)\mid\mathcal F_t\}=\lambda E\{\int_t^{t+h}U(s)\,ds\mid\mathcal F_t\}E{Y(t+h)−Y(t)∣Ft​}=λE{∫tt+h​U(s)ds∣Ft​}.
  3. Lemma 1: R(t)=Y(t)−λtV(t)R(t)=Y(t)-\lambda tV(t)R(t)=Y(t)−λtV(t) is a martingale.
  4. (7): the second-moment bound E{R2(t)}≤λt+2λ2t2E\{R^2(t)\}\le\lambda t+2\lambda^2t^2E{R2(t)}≤λt+2λ2t2.
  5. (10): the grid strong law R(nh)/n→0R(nh)/n\to0R(nh)/n→0 w.p. 1.
  6. (11): the pathwise interpolation bound between grid points.
  7. Lemma 2: R(t)/t→0R(t)/t\to0R(t)/t→0 w.p. 1.
  8. The strong law A(t)/t→λA(t)/t\to\lambdaA(t)/t→λ for the Poisson process.

Companion: Theorem 2 (p. 228)

For a Poisson process with bounded, integrable rate λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t) and Λ(t)/t→λˉ∈(0,∞)\Lambda(t)/t\to\bar\lambda\in(0,\infty)Λ(t)/t→λˉ∈(0,∞), where Λ(t)=∫0tλ(s) ds\Lambda(t)=\int_0^t\lambda(s)\,dsΛ(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds, the same equivalence holds with V(t)V(t)V(t) replaced by the rate-weighted average Vˉ(t)=Λ(t)−1∫0tU(s)λ(s) ds\bar V(t)=\Lambda(t)^{-1}\int_0^tU(s)\lambda(s)\,dsVˉ(t)=Λ(t)−1∫0t​U(s)λ(s)ds. Display (12), E{Y(t)}=∫0tE{U(s)}λ(s) dsE\{Y(t)\}=\int_0^tE\{U(s)\}\lambda(s)\,dsE{Y(t)}=∫0t​E{U(s)}λ(s)ds, is its analogue of (3).

Significance

Theorem 1 justifies replacing customer averages by time averages, and conversely, in any model where arrivals are Poisson and the system does not anticipate them. Examples are queue-length distributions seen by arrivals in M/G/c systems, blocking probabilities in Erlang loss models, and state probabilities at arrival epochs in networks with Poisson external input. It needs no ergodic theory of the observed process: convergence of one average has to be established separately, by whatever means suit the model, and the theorem transfers it to the other. Lemma 2 also implies versions of PASTA under weaker modes of convergence (Remark 6).

The result has been proved for four decades and is textbook material. What this mission adds is a machine-checked proof. No formalization of Theorem 1 in a proof assistant is known. A complete development would also contain machine-checked versions of several standard facts not yet available in Mathlib:

  • the strong law for the Poisson process;
  • a strong law for square-integrable martingale differences;
  • Stieltjes integration against a counting path.

Difficulty

The naive argument conditions on the arrival epochs and claims that each arrival "samples" the state at a uniformly random time. This fails because arrivals influence the state: after an arrival, a queue-length process is no longer independent of the arrival stream. LAA only says that the future increments of AAA are independent of the past of UUU. The difficulty is to turn this one-sided independence into an almost-sure statement about long-run averages, along every path and at all times rather than only at fixed ones.

On the technical side, the expected-value identity (3) needs a limit of grid sums. That limit relies on left continuity: without it, U(t)=1{A jumps at t}U(t)=\mathbf 1\{A \text{ jumps at } t\}U(t)=1{A jumps at t} satisfies LAA with V≡0V\equiv0V≡0 but Z≡1Z\equiv1Z≡1. The passage from expectations to a strong law needs a martingale structure and a second-moment bound, and the interpolation between grid times needs a pathwise argument.

Formalization scope

  • Time and paths. Time is R\mathbb RR, and every hypothesis concerns t≥0t\ge0t≥0 only. Processes are maps R→Ω→(⋅)\mathbb R\to\Omega\to(\cdot)R→Ω→(⋅). A Poisson process with intensity function λ(⋅)\lambda(\cdot)λ(⋅) is a counting process A:R→Ω→NA:\mathbb R\to\Omega\to\mathbb NA:R→Ω→N with A(0)=0A(0)=0A(0)=0, every path non-decreasing and right-continuous, Poisson-distributed increments with mean ∫stλ\int_s^t\lambda∫st​λ, and independent increments over any finite increasing sequence of times. The constant-rate case is Theorem 1's setting.
  • The averages. Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) is encoded as ∑k=1A(t)U(Tk)\sum_{k=1}^{A(t)}U(T_k)∑k=1A(t)​U(Tk​) over the arrival epochs Tk=inf⁡{s≥0:A(s)≥k}T_k=\inf\{s\ge0:A(s)\ge k\}Tk​=inf{s≥0:A(s)≥k}, which is the Lebesgue–Stieltjes integral ∫(0,t]U dA\int_{(0,t]}U\,dA∫(0,t]​UdA with multiplicities. Z(t)=0Z(t)=0Z(t)=0 when A(t)=0A(t)=0A(t)=0, and V(0)=0V(0)=0V(0)=0; limits do not see these values.
  • The standing hypotheses. These are carried as binders of the goal: measurability of {N(t)∈B}\{N(t)\in B\}{N(t)∈B} for t≥0t\ge0t≥0, path regularity w.p. 1 (left continuity at t>0t>0t>0, right limits at t≥0t\ge0t≥0), joint measurability on Ω×[0,∞)\Omega\times[0,\infty)Ω×[0,∞), and lack of anticipation as independence of the σ-field of future increments of AAA from Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. The milestones (2), (3), (7) and (11) need less: (2) and (3) are stated under the printed LAA, and (7) and (11) under no independence assumption at all.
  • The limit and the expectations. V(∞)V(\infty)V(∞) is an arbitrary function Ω→R\Omega\to\mathbb RΩ→R, shared by both sides of the equivalence. Expectations in the milestones come with integrability conclusions, or are lower integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so that no identity holds through Lean's junk value 000 for non-integrable functions.
  • Ruled out. A formalization in which V(∞)V(\infty)V(∞) is quantified separately on each side, which loses "to the same limit". A goal that assumes Lemma 2, (3) or the strong law A(t)/t→λA(t)/t\to\lambdaA(t)/t→λ as a hypothesis. A definition of YYY that counts distinct jump times and not arrivals.

Welcome contributions:

  • a reusable Poisson-process library: the strong law, square moments, independence of increments from a past σ-field;
  • a martingale strong law of Feller's type;
  • Stieltjes sums against counting paths.

All of these are useful well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. W. Wolff, Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages, Operations Research 30(2):223–231, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.30.2.223
  • S. Watanabe, On discontinuous additive functionals and Lévy measures of a Markov process, Japanese Journal of Mathematics 34:53–70, 1964. https://doi.org/10.4099/jjm1924.34.0_53
  • B. Melamed and W. Whitt, On arrivals that see time averages, Operations Research 38(1):156–172, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.38.1.156
  • P. Brémaud and J. Jacod, Processus ponctuels et martingales: résultats récents sur la modélisation et le filtrage, Advances in Applied Probability 9(2):362–416, 1977. https://doi.org/10.2307/1426091
  • S. Stidham, Regenerative processes in the theory of queues, with applications to the alternating-priority queue, Advances in Applied Probability 4(3):542–577, 1972.
  • W. Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. II, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1971.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Inventory Policies for Assembly Systems Under Random Demands 1: In Long-Run Balance, an Assembly System Has the Optimal Policies of an Equivalent Series SystemResearch Paper

Motivation

An assembly system must coordinate the production of components that meet at a common downstream item. A shortage of any required component can delay the finished product, while producing a component too early incurs holding cost. In Rosling's 1989 study, the central question is whether optimal decisions for such a tree can be understood using the simpler theory of a pure series inventory system. The paper proves an equivalence when the initial inventory positions are in a condition it calls long-run balance. That equivalence gives a precise route from an assembly network to serial inventory control without discarding its lead times or its discounted costs.

Setting

There are items 1,…,N1,\ldots,N1,…,N in a tree rooted at end item 111. Every item i>1i>1i>1 has one immediate successor s(i)<is(i)<is(i)<i; one unit of each component is needed for an end unit. Let lil_ili​ be the production or delivery lead time of item iii. The total lead time MiM_iMi​ is the sum of lead times on the path from iii to the end item, with M0=0M_0=0M0​=0, and the equivalent lead time is Li=Mi−Mi−1L_i=M_i-M_{i-1}Li​=Mi​−Mi−1​. Items are indexed so that MiM_iMi​ is nondecreasing. These definitions and indexing conditions are in §§1–2 of the paper.

At the beginning of each period ttt, outstanding orders arrive, the controller chooses the post-order echelon position YitY_{it}Yit​, and then demand ξt\xi_tξt​ for the end item occurs. The pre-order position is XitX_{it}Xit​, while XktlX^l_{kt}Xktl​ is the position of predecessor kkk from orders old enough to arrive after its lead time. A decision is feasible when Xit≤Yit≤XktlX_{it}\le Y_{it}\le X^l_{kt}Xit​≤Yit​≤Xktl​ for every immediate predecessor kkk of iii. Decisions depend only on demands already observed. The demands are independent and identically distributed, nonnegative, and have a density and a finite positive mean.

The discounted Problem P charges echelon holding cost hih_ihi​ for item iii and a shortage coefficient p+H1p+H_1p+H1​ for the end item. Its discount factor is α\alphaα. The objective is the expectation of the sum over periods of the holding charges and the expected end-item shortfall over l1+1l_1+1l1​+1 demands, with a constant independent of the policy. The paper's Assumption requires every hi>0h_i>0hi​>0 and ∑ihiα−Ms(i)<p+H1\sum_i h_i\alpha^{-M_{s(i)}}<p+H_1∑i​hi​α−Ms(i)​<p+H1​. The system is in long-run balance in period ttt when positions of adjacent items, compared at the same age relative to total lead time, satisfy equation (5):

XitMi−μ≤Xi+1,tMi+1−μ(1≤i<N, 0≤μ<Mi).X^{M_i-\mu}_{it}\le X^{M_{i+1}-\mu}_{i+1,t} \quad(1\le i<N,\ 0\le\mu<M_i).XitMi​−μ​≤Xi+1,tMi+1​−μ​(1≤i<N, 0≤μ<Mi​).

Formalization targets

Equivalent series optimal policies

The equivalent series system has successor i−1i-1i−1, lead time LiL_iLi​, the same demand law and shortage coefficient, and holding coefficient hiαli−Lih_i\alpha^{l_i-L_i}hi​αli​−Li​. Theorem 2 states that its optimal policies and those of the assembly system agree when the assembly system is initially in long-run balance. In the formal statement, the first inclusion is unconditional; the reverse inclusion is conditional on Problem P attaining an optimum:

Opt⁡(P)⊆Opt⁡(Pseries),Opt⁡(P)≠∅⟹Opt⁡(Pseries)⊆Opt⁡(P).\operatorname{Opt}(P)\subseteq\operatorname{Opt}(P_{\mathrm{series}}), \qquad \operatorname{Opt}(P)\ne\varnothing \Longrightarrow \operatorname{Opt}(P_{\mathrm{series}})\subseteq\operatorname{Opt}(P).Opt(P)⊆Opt(Pseries​),Opt(P)=∅⟹Opt(Pseries​)⊆Opt(P).

The target includes Lemmas 1 and 2, Theorem 1, Corollary 1, and the cost identity displayed in the proof of Theorem 2. Lemma 1 limits excess production, Lemma 2 gives a production lower bound, Theorem 1 describes when long-run balance is reached and preserved, and Corollary 1 uses the adjacent series position in that result. Each is stated at the strength given on pp. 568–569 of the paper.

Significance

Theorem 2 identifies the same policy choices in a tree assembly problem and a series problem whose stages have modified lead times and holding coefficients. It makes the serial interpretation exact for initially balanced systems and supports the paper's later discussion of series-system calculations. The statement is an equivalence of optimal policies, rather than just an equality of numerical values, so both the feasible-policy comparison and the cost comparison matter.

The theorem and its supporting results are proved in the 1989 paper; they have not been machine-checked in this development. A complete formalization would supply a reusable account of finite-history inventory policies, random demand histories, echelon positions, and extended-real discounted objectives. The published serial model SupplyChainTheory_multiechelon represents a different stage-indexed system; the assembly tree, its initial pipeline, and Problem P still need their own definitions. The paper's order-up-to Corollary 2 relies on an extension of earlier serial results and is outside this target.

Difficulty

The first natural comparison is to replace the tree's predecessor constraints with adjacent-item constraints. Those feasible sets are not equal for arbitrary states: positions at different total lead times can cross, and initial orders placed before period 1 affect the earliest periods. Long-run balance controls the necessary position comparisons, but equation (5) is empty for an item with Mi=0M_i=0Mi​=0. The printed proof also uses a middle inequality outside the range covered by equation (5) when an equivalent lead time vanishes. A faithful statement must account for these boundary cases without defining the series problem through the assembly problem's optimal policies.

Formalization scope

Items use the paper's indices 1,…,N1,\ldots,N1,…,N, with N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and s(1)=0s(1)=0s(1)=0. Lean period kkk is paper period t=k+1t=k+1t=k+1; the policy sees exactly kkk earlier demands. The common demand law ν\nuν is a probability measure on the reals, concentrated on nonnegative values, absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure, integrable, and of positive mean. The law of demand over l1+1l_1+1l1​+1 periods is the pushforward of a finite product law under summation. Feasibility and the optimal-policy bounds are almost-sure statements, so changes on null histories do not alter them. Pathwise balance results quantify over one nonnegative demand path.

Initial positions include the orders placed before period 1. Their ages are monotone and obey the predecessor constraints inherited from that past. In addition to the paper's initial long-run balance, a separate boundary condition carries the missing comparison when Mi=0M_i=0Mi​=0. Discounting is restricted to 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1: at α=1\alpha=1α=1 the paper specifies average cost through a separate limiting prescription. The formal cost lies in the extended reals and is computed from its positive and negative parts; under the Assumption, feasible policies have a finite negative part. The policy-independent constant of equation (2) is omitted from both systems. “Optimal” means feasible and no more costly than every feasible policy, never a default value of an empty infimum.

The series system is built as a second instance of the same model, using the paper's successor, lead-time, and holding-coefficient transformations. Its cost and constraint (3) are then computed by the shared definitions. Contributions toward the lead-time identities, almost-sure policy comparisons, finite-time balance theorem, and extended-real cost identity are all part of the scope.

Selected references

  • Kaj Rosling, Optimal Inventory Policies for Assembly Systems under Random Demands, Operations Research 37(4):565–579, 1989. DOI: 10.1287/opre.37.4.565.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

The Fair Division of a Fixed Supply Among a Growing Population: WPO, Anonymity, Scale Invariance, Continuity and Population Monotonicity Characterize the Kalai–Smorodinsky SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Axiomatic bargaining theory asks which rule should divide a set of feasible utility vectors among a group of agents, and answers by listing properties a reasonable rule must have and determining the rules that have them. Nash's solution (Nash 1950) and the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution (Kalai and Smorodinsky 1975) are the two classical answers for a fixed set of two agents. Both characterizations take the number of agents as given.

In many division problems the group is not fixed: a supply of goods that was to be shared among some agents must later be shared among more. Thomson (1983) (Math. Oper. Res. 8:319–326) introduced a framework in which the population varies and a solution is a family of rules, one for each finite group. He proposed an axiom tying the rules for different groups together: when new agents arrive and the resources stay fixed, none of the original agents should gain (population monotonicity). The paper shows that this axiom, combined with four standard ones, singles out the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution.

Timeline.

  • 1950: Nash characterizes the Nash solution for two agents.
  • 1975: Kalai and Smorodinsky replace Nash's independence axiom by individual monotonicity and characterize their solution for two agents.
  • 1980: Roth (Internat. J. Game Theory 8, 129–132, cited as [5] in Thomson 1983) discusses the nnn-agent extension; Thomson notes that without comprehensiveness the nnn-agent solution can fail weak Pareto-optimality once n≥3n \ge 3n≥3.
  • 1983: Thomson characterizes the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution for a variable population by WPO, anonymity, scale invariance, continuity and population monotonicity. This is the result of this mission.

Setting

The agents are the natural numbers, and a group PPP is a nonempty finite set of agents. For a group PPP, RP\mathbb R^PRP is the space of real vectors indexed by PPP, and R+P\mathbb R^P_+R+P​ its nonnegative orthant. For vectors, x>yx > yx>y means xi>yix_i > y_ixi​>yi​ for every iii, x≧yx \geqq yx≧y means xi≥yix_i \ge y_ixi​≥yi​ for every iii, and x⩾yx \geqslant yx⩾y means x≧yx \geqq yx≧y with x≠yx \ne yx=y.

A division problem for PPP is a set S⊆R+PS \subseteq \mathbb R^P_+S⊆R+P​ that is compact, convex, contains a strictly positive vector, and is comprehensive: if x∈Sx \in Sx∈S and 0≦y≦x0 \leqq y \leqq x0≦y≦x, then y∈Sy \in Sy∈S. The class of these problems is ΣP\Sigma^PΣP. The subclass Σ~P\tilde\Sigma^PΣ~P also requires that whenever x,y∈Sx, y \in Sx,y∈S and y⩾xy \geqslant xy⩾x, some z∈Sz \in Sz∈S satisfies z>xz > xz>x.

A solution FFF chooses a point FP(S)∈SF^P(S) \in SFP(S)∈S for every group PPP and every S∈ΣPS \in \Sigma^PS∈ΣP. The ideal point of SSS is a(S)a(S)a(S), with ai(S)=max⁡x∈Sxia_i(S) = \max_{x \in S} x_iai​(S)=maxx∈S​xi​. The Kalai–Smorodinsky solution KKK selects the largest point of SSS on the segment from the origin to a(S)a(S)a(S):

KP(S)=t∗ a(S),t∗=max⁡{t≥0:t a(S)∈S}.K^P(S) = t^*\,a(S), \qquad t^* = \max\{t \ge 0 : t\,a(S) \in S\}.KP(S)=t∗a(S),t∗=max{t≥0:ta(S)∈S}.

The axioms on a solution FFF are:

  • WPO: no y∈Sy \in Sy∈S has y>FP(S)y > F^P(S)y>FP(S).
  • PO: no y∈Sy \in Sy∈S has y⩾FP(S)y \geqslant F^P(S)y⩾FP(S).
  • An: relabelling the agents along a bijection γ:P→P′\gamma : P \to P'γ:P→P′ relabels the outcome.
  • S. Inv: rescaling each agent's utility by a positive factor rescales the outcome the same way.
  • Cont: FP(Sk)→FP(S)F^P(S^k) \to F^P(S)FP(Sk)→FP(S) whenever Sk→SS^k \to SSk→S in the Hausdorff metric.
  • Mon: if P⊆QP \subseteq QP⊆Q, S∈ΣPS \in \Sigma^PS∈ΣP, T∈ΣQT \in \Sigma^QT∈ΣQ, and S=T∩RPS = T \cap \mathbb R^PS=T∩RP (the points of TTT that give zero to everyone outside PPP), then FiP(S)≥FiQ(T)F^P_i(S) \ge F^Q_i(T)FiP​(S)≥FiQ​(T) for every i∈Pi \in Pi∈P.

Formalization targets

Goal: the characterization (Theorems 1 and 3)

For every solution FFF,

F satisfies WPO, An, S. Inv, Cont, Mon  ⟺  FP(S)=KP(S)  for all finite P and all S∈ΣP.F \text{ satisfies WPO, An, S. Inv, Cont, Mon} \iff F^P(S) = K^P(S)\ \text{ for all finite } P \text{ and all } S \in \Sigma^P.F satisfies WPO, An, S. Inv, Cont, Mon⟺FP(S)=KP(S)  for all finite P and all S∈ΣP.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1. KKK is a solution and satisfies WPO, An, S. Inv, Cont and Mon.
  2. Theorem 2, ∣P∣=2|P| = 2∣P∣=2. Under WPO, An, S. Inv and Mon, FP(S)≧KP(S)F^P(S) \geqq K^P(S)FP(S)≧KP(S) for every two-agent group.
  3. The replica problem (appendix). If a(S)=ePa(S) = e^Pa(S)=eP, aeP∈Sa e^P \in SaeP∈S and i0∈Pi_0 \in Pi0​∈P, there are Q⊇PQ \supseteq PQ⊇P with ∣Q∣=3∣P∣−2|Q| = 3|P| - 2∣Q∣=3∣P∣−2 and T∈ΣQT \in \Sigma^QT∈ΣQ such that T∩RP=ST \cap \mathbb R^P = ST∩RP=S and aeQ∈Ta e^Q \in TaeQ∈T. In addition, every agent j∈Qj \in Qj∈Q faces, in some slice of TTT, a relabelled copy of SSS in which jjj holds agent i0i_0i0​'s position.
  4. Theorem 2. Under WPO, An, S. Inv and Mon, FP(S)≧KP(S)F^P(S) \geqq K^P(S)FP(S)≧KP(S) for every PPP and every S∈ΣPS \in \Sigma^PS∈ΣP.
  5. Corollary 1. Under the same four axioms, F=KF = KF=K on every Σ~P\tilde\Sigma^PΣ~P.
  6. Density. Every S∈ΣPS \in \Sigma^PS∈ΣP is a Hausdorff limit of problems in Σ~P\tilde\Sigma^PΣ~P.
  7. Theorem 3. WPO, An, S. Inv, Cont and Mon imply F=KF = KF=K on every ΣP\Sigma^PΣP.

Two further statements accompany the goal. Corollary 2 says that no solution satisfies PO, An, S. Inv and Mon. Lemma 1 says that some solution other than KKK satisfies WPO, An, S. Inv and Mon.

Significance

The theorem identifies the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution as the only rule, among those treating agents symmetrically and ignoring utility units, under which an arrival of new claimants never benefits existing ones. Corollary 2 shows that weak Pareto-optimality cannot be strengthened to Pareto-optimality. Lemma 1 shows that continuity cannot be dropped. Together they fix the logical boundary of the result. The replica construction of the appendix is a reusable device: a problem in which every agent of a larger group faces an exact copy of one agent's situation.

The result has been proved since 1983. It has not been machine-checked, and to our knowledge no proof assistant library contains bargaining problems, solutions or the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution. The mission produces these definitions and checks the full argument, including two steps the paper asserts without proof. One is that the replica problem has the required slices. The other is that problems satisfying condition (c) are dense in the Hausdorff metric. Formalizing the paper also exposes a printed slip: Theorem 2 is stated as an equivalence, but only one direction is true and proved, and only that direction is stated here.

Difficulty

Theorem 1 asks for routine but real convex analysis. Continuity of KKK requires the ideal point and the maximal scalar t∗t^*t∗ to move continuously with SSS in the Hausdorff metric. Comprehensiveness and the strictly positive vector are what make this work.

The substance is in Theorem 2. The first thought is to compare FP(S)F^P(S)FP(S) with KP(S)K^P(S)KP(S) inside SSS alone, using only WPO, An and S. Inv. That cannot work: Lemma 1 exhibits a solution satisfying all four axioms that differs from KKK, so the argument must leave the group PPP. The proof builds a larger problem TTT in which every member of an enlarged group faces a copy of the worst-treated agent's position. Mon then caps each agent's payoff in TTT, and WPO fails at the diagonal point aeQa e^QaeQ. Choosing the groups and bijections, and verifying that each slice of the convex comprehensive hull is exactly the intended copy, is the delicate part. The paper dismisses it as "clear".

Theorem 3 needs the density of Σ~P\tilde\Sigma^PΣ~P in ΣP\Sigma^PΣP. An approximating problem must lose every flat face on its weak Pareto boundary while staying compact, convex and comprehensive.

Formalization scope

Agents are ℕ, where the paper uses {1,2,… }\{1, 2, \dots\}{1,2,…}; this relabelling is harmless. Groups are nonempty: for the empty group, R∅\mathbb R^\emptysetR∅ is a point and WPO would hold for no solution, so the page's "finite subsets" is read as nonempty finite subsets. A group is a Finset ℕ, and RP\mathbb R^PRP is the function type P → ℝ, whose metric is the sup metric. Hausdorff convergence uses Mathlib's extended Hausdorff distance Metric.hausdorffEDist. Convergence in it is equivalent to Euclidean Hausdorff convergence, because the norms are equivalent.

A solution is a total function on all sets, together with the hypothesis IsSolution F that FP(S)∈SF^P(S) \in SFP(S)∈S for S∈ΣPS \in \Sigma^PS∈ΣP. Every axiom quantifies over problems in ΣP\Sigma^PΣP only, and "FFF is the Kalai–Smorodinsky solution" means agreement on every ΣP\Sigma^PΣP. Two formalizations of the goal would be trivial or false, and the statements here rule out both: one that equates FFF and KKK as functions, and one that drops IsSolution.

The remaining conventions are these.

  • KKK and the ideal point use sSup. Both suprema are attained on ΣP\Sigma^PΣP.
  • T∩RPT \cap \mathbb R^PT∩RP is the set of xxx whose zero-extension lies in TTT.
  • An quantifies over bijections P ≃ P'.
  • Scalings have strictly positive factors.

Deviation from the page. Theorem 2's printed "if" direction is false, so only "only if" is stated. For example, choosing (2,1,1)(2,1,1)(2,1,1) on cch{(2,1,1),(0,2,0),(0,0,2)}\mathrm{cch}\{(2,1,1),(0,2,0),(0,0,2)\}cch{(2,1,1),(0,2,0),(0,0,2)} and KKK elsewhere gives a solution with F≧KF \geqq KF≧K that violates S. Inv. The replica milestone states the appendix construction existentially, for a generic agent i0i_0i0​ instead of agent 1.

Out of scope: Theorem 4 (solutions defined on Σ~P\tilde\Sigma^PΣ~P only, whose necessity proof is a sketch), and the remarks of §4.2–§4.4.

A complete development needs Hausdorff-metric continuity of maxima over compact sets and the convex comprehensive hull. It also needs elementary facts about slices and relabellings of comprehensive sets. All of these are reusable for other bargaining and fair-division formalizations. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and on lemmas about ΣP\Sigma^PΣP that several milestones share.

Selected references

  • W. Thomson, The fair division of a fixed supply among a growing population, Mathematics of Operations Research 8(3):319–326, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.3.319
  • E. Kalai and M. Smorodinsky, Other solutions to Nash's bargaining problem, Econometrica 43(3):513–518, 1975. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914280
  • J. F. Nash, The bargaining problem, Econometrica 18(2):155–162, 1950. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907266
  • A. E. Roth, An impossibility result for n-person games, International Journal of Game Theory 8:129–132, 1980 (as cited in Thomson 1983, reference [5]); see the reference list of https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.3.319
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