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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.131121719190Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
9 provers on it18 of 19 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
17 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 21Formalized record→≤ 16Open frontier
5 provers on it12 of 13 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 25Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
38 provers on it14 of 16 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares 1: Markdown Is Optimal Once Time-to-Go Falls Below a Strictly Increasing Threshold x_nResearch Paper

Why the timing of a markdown matters

A seller with limited stock can charge a high price while demand is strong and lower the price before the selling season ends. The timing depends on how many units remain: a markdown that is sensible with ample stock may be premature when only one unit is left. Feng and Gallego studied this decision when each price generates a Poisson demand stream and only one price change is allowed. Their 1995 paper proves that the optimal decision has a threshold in remaining time for every inventory level. This mission formalizes their markdown theorem, including its value-function representation, rather than just the existence of a switching rule.

The model is a finite-inventory revenue problem, relevant when an unsold unit loses its value at the end of a season. It is also a continuous-time stopping problem: the seller observes actual sales and may react to them. A fixed calendar date for the markdown cannot describe all of those decisions. The paper treats the markdown case separately from the markup case, because the order of prices, arrival rates and revenue rates reverses the behavior of the switching boundary. The present mission concerns the markdown case alone.

Prices, demand, and admissible switches

Let n≥1n\ge1n≥1 be the initial stock and t≥0t\ge0t≥0 the time to go. The seller first charges price p1p_1p1​ and may change once to a lower price p2p_2p2​. Demands at the two prices are independent Poisson counts with positive rates λ1\lambda_1λ1​ and λ2\lambda_2λ2​. A lower price produces more arrivals, so p2<p1p_2<p_1p2​<p1​ and λ1<λ2\lambda_1<\lambda_2λ1​<λ2​. Feng and Gallego also assume that lowering the price increases the revenue rate: p1λ1<p2λ2p_1\lambda_1<p_2\lambda_2p1​λ1​<p2​λ2​. There is no salvage payment for inventory left when time expires. These conventions come from §2 and the case split on pp. 1375–1376.

Write N1(s)N_1(s)N1​(s) for the observed sales count at the initial price by time sss. If the price changes at deterministic time s∈[0,t]s\in[0,t]s∈[0,t], let J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s)J(n,t;s) be the expected total revenue. The count after the change is independent of N1(s)N_1(s)N1​(s), and their sum has Poisson mean λ1s+λ2(t−s)\lambda_1s+\lambda_2(t-s)λ1​s+λ2​(t−s). The optimal value J(n,t)J(n,t)J(n,t) allows the switch time τ\tauτ to depend on the counts observed so far. An admissible τ\tauτ lies between zero and ttt, is a stopping time for the history of N1N_1N1​, and occurs before stock is exhausted almost surely. At s=0s=0s=0, J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0)J(n,t;0) is the revenue from charging p2p_2p2​ immediately. The paper defines these quantities in §3, pp. 1377–1379.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 1, p. 1380. It asserts a strictly increasing sequence x1<x2<⋯x_1<x_2<\cdotsx1​<x2​<⋯ of inventory-dependent thresholds. When t≤xnt\le x_nt≤xn​, switching immediately earns the optimal value; when t>xnt>x_nt>xn​, a correction F(n,t)F(n,t)F(n,t) is added:

J(n,t)={J(n,t;0),t≤xn,J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),t>xn.J(n,t)=\begin{cases} J(n,t;0),&t\le x_n,\\ J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),&t>x_n. \end{cases}J(n,t)={J(n,t;0),J(n,t;0)+F(n,t),​t≤xn​,t>xn​.​

The theorem specifies the correction, rather than leaving it as an arbitrary difference of values. It starts with F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0F(0,t)=0. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1, set L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1F(n−1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+\lambda_1F(n-1,t)L(n,t)=G(n,t)+λ1​F(n−1,t), where GGG is the Poisson-tail expression from §4.1. The threshold xnx_nxn​ is the first nonnegative zero of L(n,⋅)L(n,\cdot)L(n,⋅). A function H(n,⋅)H(n,\cdot)H(n,⋅) satisfies ∂tH=−λ1H+L\partial_tH=-\lambda_1H+L∂t​H=−λ1​H+L for positive time and H(n,xn)=0H(n,x_n)=0H(n,xn​)=0; FFF is zero below xnx_nxn​ and equals HHH at and above it. If yny_nyn​ is the first zero of G(n,⋅)G(n,\cdot)G(n,⋅), the theorem also gives x1=y1x_1=y_1x1​=y1​ and xn<ynx_n<y_nxn​<yn​ for n>1n>1n>1.

Three supporting targets match the source's attack path. Equation (17) differentiates immediate-switch revenue. Lemma 2 gives the zeros and one sign change of GGG in the markdown case. Lemma 1 identifies a value function through differential inequalities and its stopping payoff. Each is recorded with its page-level statement in the milestone list.

What the result provides

The threshold sequence turns an adaptive stopping problem into a state rule: inspect remaining inventory and time to go, then compare time with the corresponding threshold. The value representation supplies the expected-revenue quantity on both sides of that comparison. Strict increase means a larger stock requires a larger remaining-time threshold before charging the higher initial price is worthwhile. These are the conclusions of Theorem 1, already proved in the paper.

The work here is a Lean statement and eventual machine-checked proof of that known result. The current theorem items are open proof targets. Formalizing the model gives reusable Poisson-tail revenue expressions and a continuous-time stopping-value interface; Lemma 1 can also serve other Poisson-driven stopping problems once proved. A checked proof would establish that the threshold representation and the optimal stopping value agree under the stated assumptions, including boundary cases that informal notation leaves implicit.

Where the mathematics is difficult

The obvious comparison of two fixed switching times misses the information contained in the sales path. The switch decision can change after each observed arrival, while the threshold for inventory nnn depends on the correction at stock n−1n-1n−1. Showing that every such comparison is organized by one increasing threshold requires more than differentiating the fixed-switch revenue. The paper's appendix handles the interaction between the sign of GGG, the recursive correction, and the stopping-value verification; these are distinct formal targets pp. 1387–1388.

The printed verification lemma and one word of Lemma 2 require care. Lemma 1 omits boundary and regularity conditions needed by its proof. Lemma 2 calls the zero sequence “bounded,” although its thresholds tend to infinity; the usable claim is that they stay above a positive lower bound. The formal statements expose these corrections and retain the rest of the source's conclusions.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the first demand stream by a counting process built from independent exponential interarrival times. The terminal revenue after a switch is expressed using the Poisson law of the sum of the two independent counts. The stopping class records the count-generated history, bounds the stopping time by the horizon, and requires stock to remain at stopping almost surely. Its expected payoff uses the number sold before stopping and the immediate-switch value for the unsold stock. Prices and rates are positive, the markdown ordering and revenue-rate inequality are explicit, and the probability measure is named explicitly even though the exponential-interarrival law already entails it.

The paper uses nonnegative real time, inventories indexed by positive integers, and zero salvage. Lean uses a real supremum for the value and a real infimum for each threshold; the admissible payoff is bounded and measurable, and every threshold-defining zero set is asserted nonempty. The ODE is expressed with an actual derivative at positive time. The auxiliary Poisson-tail definition maps a negative mean to zero, but all model applications have nonnegative means. The threshold construction, its ODE, and the equality with the stopping value are all conclusions of the goal, so none is an assumed solution.

For Lemma 1, the formal target adds the initial-time and zero-stock boundary values, domination of terminal revenue, and local Lipschitz regularity in time. The first three conditions are used in the source's own proof or reformulation; local Lipschitz regularity makes its integral calculation valid. Contributions may establish the Poisson-tail calculus, the sign and threshold results, the verification theorem, or the complete markdown theorem. The referenced arrival-process definition is shared infrastructure; the two-price revenue and stopping model are specific to this paper.

Selected references

  • Y. Feng and G. Gallego, Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares, Management Science 41(8), 1995, pp. 1371–1391. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.8.1371.
6 thms3 active usersReviewed
🏆Completed
Linear algebraMachine LearningMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning to Predict by the Methods of Temporal Differences: Linear TD(0) Converges in Expected Value to the Ideal Predictions on Absorbing Markov ChainsResearch Paper

Motivation

Temporal-difference (TD) methods learn to predict an eventual outcome from the differences between successive predictions rather than from the difference between each prediction and the final outcome. Sutton's 1988 paper Learning to predict by the methods of temporal differences introduced the TD(λ\lambdaλ) family and gave the first convergence proof for a TD method; before it, as the paper notes (p. 23), "no TD method has ever been proved stable or convergent to the correct predictions". TD learning is now the core of policy evaluation in reinforcement learning, and later analyses (Dayan 1992, Tsitsiklis and Van Roy 1997) start from the setting fixed here.

Timeline:

  • 1960 — Widrow and Hoff introduce the LMS (Widrow–Hoff) rule; its predictions converge in expected value to the ideal predictions for small step sizes (Widrow and Stearns 1985).
  • 1977 — Witten sketches a convergence proof for a TD-like procedure on discounted costs; many steps were left out, and Sutton (footnote 4) writes that it "now appears that the theorem he proposed is not true".
  • 1988 — Sutton proves Theorem 2 (linear TD(0), expected-value convergence on absorbing chains) and Theorem 3 (convergence of batch linear TD(0) to the maximum-likelihood predictions).
  • 1992–1997 — Dayan extends expected convergence to TD(λ\lambdaλ); Tsitsiklis and Van Roy prove almost-sure convergence of linear TD(λ\lambdaλ) under decreasing step sizes.

Setting

An absorbing Markov chain has a finite set NNN of nonterminal states, a finite set TTT of terminal states and transition probabilities pij≥0p_{ij}\ge0pij​≥0 (i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, j∈N∪Tj\in N\cup Tj∈N∪T) with ∑j∈N∪Tpij=1\sum_{j\in N\cup T}p_{ij}=1∑j∈N∪T​pij​=1. Let QQQ be the N×NN\times NN×N matrix [Q]ij=pij[Q]_{ij}=p_{ij}[Q]ij​=pij​. "Absorbing" means that every sequence terminates with probability one; for a finite chain this is Qk→0Q^k\to0Qk→0.

A sequence starts in a nonterminal state drawn from a distribution μ\muμ, follows the chain through nonterminal states q1,…,qmq_1,\dots,q_mq1​,…,qm​ until it enters a terminal state qm+1=jq_{m+1}=jqm+1​=j, and then produces a scalar outcome zzz drawn from a distribution νj\nu_jνj​ with finite mean zˉj\bar z_jzˉj​. Let [h]i=∑j∈Tpijzˉj[h]_i=\sum_{j\in T}p_{ij}\bar z_j[h]i​=∑j∈T​pij​zˉj​. The ideal prediction of state iii is the expected outcome from iii,

E{z∣i}=[∑k≥0Qkh]i=[(I−Q)−1h]i.E\{z\mid i\}=\Bigl[\sum_{k\ge0}Q^kh\Bigr]_i=\bigl[(I-Q)^{-1}h\bigr]_i .E{z∣i}=[k≥0∑​Qkh]i​=[(I−Q)−1h]i​.

The learner does not see states, only an observation vector xi∈RKx_i\in\mathbb R^Kxi​∈RK for each i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, and predicts linearly, Pt=w⊤xqtP_t=w^\top x_{q_t}Pt​=w⊤xqt​​. Linear TD(0) with weight updates after each sequence keeps www fixed during a sequence and then sets, with Pm+1=zP_{m+1}=zPm+1​=z,

w←w+∑t=1mα (Pt+1−Pt) xqt.w\leftarrow w+\sum_{t=1}^m\alpha\,(P_{t+1}-P_t)\,x_{q_t}.w←w+t=1∑m​α(Pt+1​−Pt​)xqt​​.

Sequences are experienced independently; wnw_nwn​ is the weight vector after nnn sequences. Let did_idi​ be the expected number of visits to iii in one sequence, D=diag⁡(d)D=\operatorname{diag}(d)D=diag(d), and XXX the matrix with columns xix_ixi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

For every absorbing chain, start distribution μ\muμ, outcome laws with finite means and linearly independent {xi}\{x_i\}{xi​}, with every di>0d_i>0di​>0, there is ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 such that for 0<α<ε0<\alpha<\varepsilon0<α<ε and every w0w_0w0​,

lim⁡n→∞E{xi⊤wn}=[(I−Q)−1h]i∀i∈N.\lim_{n\to\infty}E\{x_i^\top w_n\}=\bigl[(I-Q)^{-1}h\bigr]_i\qquad\forall i\in N .n→∞lim​E{xi⊤​wn​}=[(I−Q)−1h]i​∀i∈N.

The threshold ε\varepsilonε is existential, as in the paper; no explicit value is fixed.

Milestones on the goal's path

Theorem A.1 (Neumann series under An→0A^n\to0An→0); (5) the ideal predictions; (7) d⊤=μ⊤(I−Q)−1d^\top=\mu^\top(I-Q)^{-1}d⊤=μ⊤(I−Q)−1; the mean recursion wˉn+1=wˉn+αXD(h+QX⊤wˉn−X⊤wˉn)\bar w_{n+1}=\bar w_n+\alpha XD(h+QX^\top\bar w_n-X^\top\bar w_n)wˉn+1​=wˉn​+αXD(h+QX⊤wˉn​−X⊤wˉn​); Theorem A.2 (A⊤AA^\top AA⊤A nonsingular); Theorem A.3 (A≻0  ⟺  A+A⊤≻0A\succ0\iff A+A^\top\succ0A≻0⟺A+A⊤≻0); the Lemma of p. 27; D(I−Q)D(I-Q)D(I−Q) positive definite; the eigenvalues of X⊤XD(I−Q)X^\top XD(I-Q)X⊤XD(I−Q) have positive real parts; and (I−αX⊤XD(I−Q))n→0(I-\alpha X^\top XD(I-Q))^n\to0(I−αX⊤XD(I−Q))n→0 for small α\alphaα.

Further results

Theorem 3: under repeated presentations of a finite training set, batch linear TD(0) converges (deterministically) to the maximum-likelihood predictions [(I−Q^)−1h^]i[(I-\hat Q)^{-1}\hat h]_i[(I−Q^​)−1h^]i​, with its two supporting steps (Q^n→0\hat Q^n\to0Q^​n→0 and d^⊤=μ^⊤(I−Q^)−1\hat d^\top=\hat\mu^\top(I-\hat Q)^{-1}d^⊤=μ^​⊤(I−Q^​)−1). Theorem 1: linear TD(1) and Widrow–Hoff produce the same per-sequence weight changes.

Significance

Theorem 2 shows that a bootstrapping method, which learns from its own earlier predictions, is not biased by them in the limit: in expectation it reaches the same predictions as supervised (Widrow–Hoff) learning. Theorem 3 says more: on a fixed data set, TD(0) converges to the predictions that would be exact if the maximum-likelihood model of the process were correct, which differs from the least-squares answer Widrow–Hoff converges to. Together they are the formal basis for preferring TD to Monte-Carlo targets in multi-step prediction.

The results are proved on paper, and not formalized in Lean. A formalization adds a precise model of the experience (i.i.d. sequences of an absorbing chain with terminal-dependent outcome laws), the integrability facts the paper leaves implicit, and a correct proof of the positive definiteness of D(I−Q)D(I-Q)D(I−Q), whose printed argument has a gap (see below). The matrix lemmas (Neumann series under An→0A^n\to0An→0; real-part positivity of eigenvalues of GMGMGM for G≻0G\succ0G≻0 symmetric and MMM positive definite in the non-symmetric sense; the step-size threshold) are reusable for other linear stochastic-approximation analyses.

Difficulty

The obvious argument writes E{wn+1}E\{w_{n+1}\}E{wn+1​} as a linear function of E{wn}E\{w_n\}E{wn​} and observes that the iteration matrix I−αX⊤XD(I−Q)I-\alpha X^\top XD(I-Q)I−αX⊤XD(I−Q) is a contraction for small α\alphaα. Two steps of this fail as printed. First, the paper proves that D(I−Q)D(I-Q)D(I−Q) is positive definite through the Lemma of p. 27 with a weakened notion of diagonal dominance (weak in every row, strict in one), under which the Lemma is false; with the standard notion, D(I−Q)+(D(I−Q))⊤D(I-Q)+(D(I-Q))^\topD(I−Q)+(D(I−Q))⊤ is in general not strictly diagonally dominant (a row with μi=0\mu_i=0μi​=0 that cannot leave NNN in one step has row sum 000). A correct proof combines weak dominance with reachability of every state from the support of μ\muμ, which is where di>0d_i>0di​>0 enters. Second, X⊤XD(I−Q)X^\top XD(I-Q)X⊤XD(I−Q) is not symmetric, so a small α\alphaα does not make I−αX⊤XD(I−Q)I-\alpha X^\top XD(I-Q)I−αX⊤XD(I−Q) a contraction in the Euclidean norm; the argument goes through its eigenvalues, and turning eigenvalues of modulus below one into (I−αX⊤XD(I−Q))n→0(I-\alpha X^\top XD(I-Q))^n\to0(I−αX⊤XD(I−Q))n→0 is a spectral-radius argument. The probabilistic step is also not free: wnw_nwn​ is a polynomial in nnn random sequences of unbounded length, and its integrability and the factorization E{ηijwn}=dipijE{wn}E\{\eta_{ij}w_n\}=d_ip_{ij}E\{w_n\}E{ηij​wn​}=di​pij​E{wn​} need independence across sequences.

Formalization scope

States are finite types N (nonempty) and T; the chain is the structure AbsorbingChain with blocks pN, pT and the field Qk→0Q^k\to0Qk→0. Observation vectors are x : N → Fin K → ℝ with LinearIndependent ℝ x; XXX is Matrix (Fin K) N ℝ. A sequence is an Episode (list of nonterminal states, terminal state, outcome); IsEpisodeStream states measurability, mutual independence (iIndepFun) and the law P(path=s,term=j,out∈B)=μs1ps1s2⋯psmj νj(B)P(\text{path}=s,\text{term}=j,\text{out}\in B)=\mu_{s_1}p_{s_1s_2}\cdots p_{s_mj}\,\nu_j(B)P(path=s,term=j,out∈B)=μs1​​ps1​s2​​⋯psm​j​νj​(B). Expectations are Bochner integrals, and the goal asserts integrability of xi⊤wnx_i^\top w_nxi⊤​wn​, so a non-integrable junk value 000 cannot satisfy it. did_idi​ is defined as an expectation (a sum over sequences), not as [μ⊤(I−Q)−1]i[\mu^\top(I-Q)^{-1}]_i[μ⊤(I−Q)−1]i​, so (7) is not circular. "Positive definite" is the paper's footnote 6 (y⊤Ay>0y^\top Ay>0y⊤Ay>0 for real y≠0y\ne0y=0, no symmetry), not Mathlib's Matrix.PosDef.

Trivializations ruled out: the hypothesis di>0d_i>0di​>0 is the paper's own discarding of never-visited states (without it the goal is false: an unvisited state's weight never moves); N is nonempty and μ\muμ sums to one, so the hypotheses are satisfiable and the goal is not vacuous; the sequences cannot be arbitrary random variables or a fixed sequence, since their law is pinned to μ\muμ, ppp and ν\nuν; ε\varepsilonε is chosen before α\alphaα, w0w_0w0​ and the probability space; and the update is per sequence, not the intra-sequence variant of §5.

Corrected slips: "For each nonterminal state jjj" (p. 24) means terminal; the diagonal-dominance definition of p. 27 is replaced by the standard one; I−αXD(I−Q)X⊤I-\alpha XD(I-Q)X^\topI−αXD(I−Q)X⊤ (p. 28) means I−αX⊤XD(I−Q)I-\alpha X^\top XD(I-Q)I−αX⊤XD(I−Q). Not formalized: the variance and TD(λ\lambdaλ) conjectures of p. 29, §4.3, and the extension claims of §5.

Related open goals on this platform (different models, credited, not re-posed): SuttonBartoRL.BatchTD.batch_td_converges_to_certainty_equivalence (tabular, discounted analogue of Theorem 3), and SuttonBartoRL.LinearTD.keyMatrix_posDef, posDef_of_row_col_sums, expected_td_update (continuing discounted chain with stationary DDD, where every row sum of D(I−γP)D(I-\gamma P)D(I−γP) is positive). Contributions of any milestone, of general matrix lemmas, and of reusable infrastructure for i.i.d. episode streams are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. S. Sutton, Learning to predict by the methods of temporal differences, Machine Learning 3(1), 9–44, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022633531479
  • B. Widrow and M. E. Hoff, Adaptive switching circuits, IRE WESCON Convention Record, 96–104, 1960.
  • B. Widrow and S. D. Stearns, Adaptive Signal Processing, Prentice-Hall, 1985.
  • J. G. Kemeny and J. L. Snell, Finite Markov Chains, Springer, 1976. https://link.springer.com/book/9780387901923
  • R. S. Varga, Matrix Iterative Analysis, Prentice-Hall, 1962 (2nd ed., Springer, 2000: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-05156-2).
  • P. Dayan, The convergence of TD(λ) for general λ, Machine Learning 8, 341–362, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00992701
  • J. N. Tsitsiklis and B. Van Roy, An analysis of temporal-difference learning with function approximation, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 42(5), 674–690, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.580874
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Matching, Euler Tours and the Chinese Postman IV: Every Connected, Even, Symmetric Mixed Graph Has an Euler TourResearch Paper

Motivation

A postman, a snowplough or a street sweeper must traverse every street of a district and return to the depot. When some streets are one-way, the street network is a mixed graph: some edges are directed and must be traversed in a prescribed direction, the others are undirected and may be traversed either way. The first question about such a route is whether a closed route exists that traverses every street exactly once, an Euler tour of the mixed graph. When one exists, it is an optimal postman route; when none exists, the postman problem asks which streets to repeat.

J. Edmonds and E.L. Johnson treat this question in §6 of Matching, Euler tours and the Chinese postman (Mathematical Programming 5, 1973), the paper that solved the undirected Chinese postman problem by matching. Section 6 gives an algorithm that finds an Euler tour in any mixed graph that is connected, of even degree and symmetric, and §7 uses it for the mixed postman problem.

Timeline.

  • 1736: Euler's condition for undirected graphs (even degrees, connectivity).
  • 1951: T. van Aardenne-Ehrenfest and N.G. de Bruijn enumerate the Euler tours of a symmetric directed graph through spanning arborescences ("circuits and trees in oriented linear graphs"). Edmonds and Johnson cite this as the source of their arborescence rule.
  • 1962: L.R. Ford and D.R. Fulkerson (Flows in Networks, §II.7) characterize, by a flow argument, when a mixed graph has an Euler tour without assuming symmetry.
  • 1973: Edmonds and Johnson give the combined orientation and Rule algorithm of §6 for connected, even, symmetric mixed graphs, and the existence criterion of §7 for mixed postman tours.
  • 1976: C.H. Papadimitriou shows the mixed postman problem NP-hard, so the polynomial-time picture of §6 does not extend to its optimization version.

Setting

A mixed graph GGG has a finite set NNN of nodes and a finite set EEE of edges. Each edge eee meets two distinct nodes; several edges may meet the same pair of nodes. Some edges are directed: an edge directed away from node iii toward node jjj must be traversed from iii to jjj. In Lean an edge has a tail, a head (distinct) and a Boolean directed; for an undirected edge the order of the two ends carries no meaning.

  • The degree of a node is the total number of edges, regardless of direction, meeting it. GGG is even if every degree is even.
  • out⁡(n)\operatorname{out}(n)out(n) and in⁡(n)\operatorname{in}(n)in(n) count the directed edges directed away from and toward nnn. GGG is symmetric if out⁡(n)=in⁡(n)\operatorname{out}(n)=\operatorname{in}(n)out(n)=in(n) for every node nnn.
  • GGG is connected if it is connected when the directions on the edges are ignored.
  • A mixed walk is a sequence (n1,e1,n2,…,el,nl+1)(n_1,e_1,n_2,\dots,e_l,n_{l+1})(n1​,e1​,n2​,…,el​,nl+1​) in which each directed eie_iei​ goes from its tail nin_ini​ to its head ni+1n_{i+1}ni+1​ and each undirected eie_iei​ meets nin_ini​ and ni+1n_{i+1}ni+1​. It is a tour if nl+1=n1n_{l+1}=n_1nl+1​=n1​, an Euler tour if it contains every edge exactly once, and a postman tour if it contains every edge at least once.
  • An arborescence with root rrr is a tree TTT of directed edges in which every node n≠rn\neq rn=r of TTT has precisely one edge of TTT directed away from nnn. Following those edges from any node of TTT leads to rrr. It is spanning if it contains every node.

Formalization targets

Goal: the mixed Euler tour theorem (§6, pp. 115–118)

If GGG is connected, even and symmetric, then for every node rrr

∃ (r=n1,e1,…,el,nl+1=r) a mixed Euler tour of G.\exists\ (r=n_1,e_1,\dots,e_l,n_{l+1}=r)\ \text{a mixed Euler tour of } G .∃ (r=n1​,e1​,…,el​,nl+1​=r) a mixed Euler tour of G.

Milestones

  1. Cut balance (p. 116). If GGG is symmetric, every node set SSS has as many directed edges leaving it as entering it.
  2. Maximal arborescences span (pp. 115–116). Suppose the directed edges form a symmetric, connected spanning subgraph. Then an arborescence of directed edges to which no directed edge entering it from outside can be added contains every node.
  3. The Rule (pp. 116–117). Suppose the directed edges form a symmetric connected spanning subgraph and the undirected edges have even degree. Fix a spanning arborescence with root rrr and order the directed edges leaving each node n≠rn\neq rn=r so that the arborescence edge comes last. Then the following traversal from rrr is an Euler tour: leave by the next unused undirected edge if there is one, otherwise by the next unused directed edge.
  4. The assignment outcome (p. 118). If GGG is connected, even and symmetric, directions can be assigned to some undirected edges so that the result is symmetric, its directed edges form a connected spanning subgraph, and the unassigned edges have even degree.
  5. Mixed postman criterion (§7, p. 120). A connected mixed graph has a postman tour if and only if no nonempty proper node set SSS has every boundary edge directed away from SSS.

Significance

The goal contains two classical theorems as special cases. With every edge undirected it is Euler's theorem for connected even multigraphs. With every edge directed it is the theorem that a connected balanced digraph is Eulerian. The milestones connect the two cases: an orientation reduces the mixed case to one the Rule can handle. The Rule itself is the van Aardenne-Ehrenfest–de Bruijn construction, which underlies the BEST theorem counting Euler tours. Milestone 5 decides whether the mixed postman problem has any feasible solution. The mixed postman problem is the standard model for routing on one-way street networks.

All results here are proved in the paper, so none is open. No Lean proof of any of them in this form is known. Mathlib's Eulerian walks are for simple graphs; it has no multigraph or mixed-graph Euler theorem, no directed Euler theorem and no arborescence-based traversal. The mission produces these, together with a reusable vocabulary of mixed multigraphs, walks that respect directions, and arborescences given by parent edges.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to the goal is to forget the directions and apply Euler's theorem. This fails because the tour it produces may traverse a directed edge backwards. Orienting all undirected edges at once also fails: an arbitrary orientation of the undirected edges need not keep every node balanced.

The difficult part of the Rule is showing that the greedy traversal does not get stuck before using every edge. It cannot stop at a node other than rrr because of the degree conditions. The hard step is showing that no edge is left unused when it stops at rrr. The answer depends on the ordering condition: without the arborescence edge last at every node, the Rule can return to rrr with edges still unused. The assignment step needs an invariant: the orientation must keep every node symmetric while it extends a spanning structure of directed edges.

Formalization scope

  • Graphs. Nodes and edges are finite types (Fintype V, Fintype E). Parallel edges are allowed, including a directed and an undirected edge on the same pair. Loops are excluded (tail e ≠ head e), following the paper's standing setting of §2 (p. 91: edges meet two different nodes). Edges are a type, not a relation on nodes, so parallel edges stay distinct in every walk.
  • Hypotheses as on p. 115. "Even" counts all edges, directed or undirected. "Symmetric" counts only directed edges. "Connected" ignores directions. Strong connectivity is not assumed. "Symmetric" does not mean that every node has even in-degree, and an Euler tour of the underlying undirected multigraph does not satisfy the goal: the tour must traverse each directed edge from its tail to its head.
  • Walks are a node list and an edge list of length one less. The one-node walk is allowed, so the graph with one node and no edges satisfies the goal.
  • Arborescences are given by an optional edge ana_nan​ at each node, with an edge required for each non-root node of WWW; following those edges leads to rrr. A maximal arborescence is one where no directed edge enters WWW from outside. The optional choice represents the root-only arborescence when the graph has no edges.
  • The Rule is computed by a fuel-bounded traversal (at most ∣E∣|E|∣E∣ steps) that keeps a global list of used edges. Its conclusion is that the computed sequences form a mixed Euler tour from rrr.
  • The assignment is an existential statement over a second mixed graph G′G'G′ on the same edges, with the same unordered ends and every directed edge kept. The paper's algorithm (Steps 0–3) is not formalized.
  • Postman criterion. "Proper subset" means nonempty and proper. Connectivity is assumed, as throughout §7, and the node set is nonempty (with no nodes there is no tour, while the criterion holds vacuously).
  • Not formalized. The §7 evenness argument (p. 122) and the min-cost flow formulations are outside the scope.

Contributions are welcome at every level: proofs of the milestones, a direct proof of the goal, and general lemmas about mixed multigraph walks.

Selected references

  • J. Edmonds and E.L. Johnson, Matching, Euler tours and the Chinese postman, Mathematical Programming 5 (1973) 88–124. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01580113
  • T. van Aardenne-Ehrenfest and N.G. de Bruijn, Circuits and trees in oriented linear graphs, Simon Stevin 28 (1951) 203–217.
  • L.R. Ford and D.R. Fulkerson, Flows in Networks, Princeton University Press, 1962.
  • C.H. Papadimitriou, On the complexity of edge traversing, Journal of the ACM 23 (1976) 544–554. https://doi.org/10.1145/321958.321974
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Paths, Trees, and Flowers I: Matching-Duality Theorem — the Maximum Cardinality of a Matching Equals the Minimum Capacity-Sum of an Odd-Set CoverResearch Paper

Motivation

A matching in a graph is a set of edges no two of which share a vertex. Finding a matching of maximum cardinality is one of the basic problems of combinatorial optimization: it models pairing tasks (workers to shifts, kidney donors to recipients, players to rounds), it is a subroutine of algorithms for the travelling salesman and Chinese postman problems, and it was the first problem shown to need more than linear programming over the obvious constraints to be solved exactly.

For bipartite graphs, König's theorem (1931) gives a min–max formula: the maximum size of a matching equals the minimum size of a set of vertices meeting every edge. In general graphs this fails already for a triangle, where a single edge is a maximum matching but two vertices are needed to meet all three edges. Jack Edmonds' paper Paths, trees, and flowers (1965) gave both a polynomial-time algorithm for maximum matching in general graphs, the blossom algorithm, and, as a by-product of its analysis, the correct min–max theorem for general graphs.

Timeline.

  • 1891: Petersen uses alternating paths to prove the existence of factors in certain graphs.
  • 1947: Tutte characterizes graphs with a perfect matching.
  • 1957: Berge proves that a matching is maximum if and only if there is no augmenting path, and derives the deficiency formula now called the Tutte–Berge formula (Berge 1957).
  • 1965: Edmonds shrinks odd circuits ("blossoms") to search for augmenting paths in polynomial time and proves the matching-duality theorem in terms of odd-set covers (Edmonds 1965); the companion paper on the matching polyhedron extends this to weighted matching.

Setting

A graph GGG is a finite set of vertices and a finite set of edges, each edge meeting exactly two distinct vertices, its end-points. Several edges may join the same two vertices; this is needed because shrinking creates parallel edges. A matching MMM is a set of edges no two of which meet the same vertex; a vertex is exposed if it meets no edge of MMM. "Maximum" refers to cardinality.

An odd set is a set UUU of vertices with an odd number of elements. Its capacity is

cap⁡(U)={1∣U∣=1,k∣U∣=2k+1, k≥1.\operatorname{cap}(U) = \begin{cases} 1 & |U| = 1,\\ k & |U| = 2k+1,\ k \ge 1.\end{cases}cap(U)={1k​∣U∣=1,∣U∣=2k+1, k≥1.​

A one-vertex set covers the edges meeting its vertex; a set of 2k+1≥32k+1 \ge 32k+1≥3 vertices covers the edges with both end-points in it. An odd-set cover is a family S\mathcal SS of odd sets such that every edge is covered by some member, and its capacity-sum is cap⁡(S)=∑U∈Scap⁡(U)\operatorname{cap}(\mathcal S) = \sum_{U \in \mathcal S} \operatorname{cap}(U)cap(S)=∑U∈S​cap(U).

The proof uses the following objects of §3–§4 of the paper. An alternating path is a simple path whose edges alternate between MMM and the non-matching edges Mˉ\bar MMˉ. An alternating tree is a tree whose vertices are split into inner and outer vertices, every edge joining an inner to an outer vertex and every inner vertex meeting exactly two tree edges; it is planted if MMM restricted to the tree is a maximum matching of the tree whose one exposed vertex (the root) is exposed in GGG, and Hungarian if its outer vertices are adjacent only to its inner vertices. A blossom is an odd circuit on which MMM is a maximum matching, leaving one vertex bbb exposed; with a stem (an alternating path from an exposed vertex ending in a matching edge at bbb) it forms a flower. Shrinking a vertex set UUU replaces it by a single vertex U/UU/UU/U, deletes the edges inside UUU and keeps all other edges; G/BG/BG/B and M/B=M∩(G/B)M/B = M \cap (G/B)M/B=M∩(G/B) denote the result for a blossom BBB.

Formalization targets

Goal: the matching-duality theorem (5.6, p. 462)

max⁡{∣M∣:M a matching of G}  =  min⁡{cap⁡(S):S an odd-set cover of G}.\max\{|M| : M \text{ a matching of } G\} \;=\; \min\{\operatorname{cap}(\mathcal S) : \mathcal S \text{ an odd-set cover of } G\}.max{∣M∣:M a matching of G}=min{cap(S):S an odd-set cover of G}.

It is stated as: there are a maximum matching MMM and a minimum odd-set cover S\mathcal SS with ∣M∣=cap⁡(S)|M| = \operatorname{cap}(\mathcal S)∣M∣=cap(S).

Milestones (attack order)

  1. Weak duality: ∣M∣≤cap⁡(S)|M| \le \operatorname{cap}(\mathcal S)∣M∣≤cap(S) for every matching and odd-set cover.
  2. 3.7 (Berge): MMM is not maximum iff an alternating path joins two exposed vertices.
  3. 4.1–4.2: maximum matchings of an alternating tree.
  4. 4.14 and 4.15: the two directions of 4.12, in stronger form.
  5. 4.12: for the blossom BBB of a flower, MMM is maximum in GGG iff M/BM/BM/B is maximum in G/BG/BG/B.
  6. 4.17: removing a Hungarian tree preserves maximality.
  7. 5.7: the theorem for graphs with at most one exposed vertex.
  8. 5.8: the configuration produced by the algorithm on a maximum matching, and the odd sets SJ\mathcal S_JSJ​ it yields, which reduce the theorem to a graph with one exposed vertex fewer.

Significance

The matching-duality theorem gives a certificate of optimality: a matching and an odd-set cover of equal size prove each other optimal, and the blossom algorithm produces both. It is equivalent to the Tutte–Berge formula ν(G)=min⁡X12(∣V∣+∣X∣−odd⁡(G−X))\nu(G) = \min_{X} \tfrac12\bigl(|V| + |X| - \operatorname{odd}(G - X)\bigr)ν(G)=minX​21​(∣V∣+∣X∣−odd(G−X)), it contains König's theorem as the case where all members of the cover are singletons, and it is the cardinality case of Edmonds' description of the matching polytope by odd-set constraints, which underlies weighted matching, bbb-matching and the polyhedral approach to combinatorial optimization.

The theorem has been proved since 1965, with several independent proofs (via Tutte's theorem, via the Gallai–Edmonds decomposition, via linear programming). Mathlib contains Tutte's perfect-matching theorem for simple graphs, but neither the Tutte–Berge formula nor odd-set covers, alternating trees, blossom shrinking or Berge's augmenting-path theorem in a multigraph setting. This mission produces a machine-checked version of Edmonds' statement together with the lemmas of his algorithmic proof (4.12, 4.14, 4.15, 4.17), which are the correctness core of the blossom algorithm.

Difficulty

Weak duality and Berge's theorem are elementary. The difficulty is the strong direction. The obvious argument, a search for augmenting paths from an exposed vertex, fails because an alternating search tree in a non-bipartite graph can close an odd circuit, after which a vertex is reachable both by an even and by an odd alternating path; a naive search either misses augmenting paths or must back-track exponentially. The proof therefore has to work in shrunken graphs, whose vertices are nested sets of original vertices, and transfer maximality and covers back through every shrinking (4.12–4.15). Keeping track of nested blossoms, of the identity of edges under shrinking and of the parity bookkeeping of 5.8 is the main formal burden.

Formalization scope

  • Graphs are the published EdmondsMatching65.Polyhedron.Graph V E (a map from edges to unordered pairs of distinct vertices) with finite V, E; parallel edges are allowed and loops are not. Matchings are Finset E. Maximum and minimum are by cardinality, stated with explicit comparisons rather than sSup/sInf.
  • A family of odd sets is a Finset (Finset V); repeating a member only adds capacity, so this does not change the minimum. The capacity of a singleton is 111, not (1−1)/2(1-1)/2(1−1)/2.
  • Paths and circuits are lists of vertices and edges; subgraphs are vertex and edge sets; a matching of a subgraph is a matching of GGG using only its edges.
  • Shrinking is contraction along a partition of the vertices: the vertex type of G/PG/\mathcal PG/P is the set of parts, the edge type is the set of edges not inside a part. Nested blossom shrinking is encoded by an inductive predicate of blossom sets (the complete expansions of pseudovertices), not by a tower of quotient types. Statements that shrink a set other than a circuit assume its induced subgraph connected, the standing assumption of 4.9.
  • 5.7 is stated as the existence of a cover: the page's explicit families fail for the two-vertex graph with one edge and for the one-vertex graph, where the claim still holds.
  • 5.8 is stated through the configuration the algorithm outputs (blossom sets, a planted Hungarian tree in G′G'G′, pseudovertices outer), not through the algorithm as a procedure.
  • A trivializing formalization is excluded: the goal asserts the equality of the maximum and the minimum, not weak duality and not the separate existence of an optimal matching and an optimal cover.

Reusable beyond this mission: the multigraph shrinking construction, blossom sets, alternating and Hungarian trees, and Berge's theorem in the multigraph setting; these are shared with the companion mission on the invariance of the dual (Gallai–Edmonds). Proofs of any milestone, and alternative proofs of the goal (e.g. through Mathlib's Tutte theorem), are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Edmonds, Paths, trees, and flowers, Canadian Journal of Mathematics 17 (1965), 449–467. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1965-045-4
  • C. Berge, Two theorems in graph theory, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 43 (1957), 842–844. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.43.9.842
  • W. T. Tutte, The factorization of linear graphs, Journal of the London Mathematical Society 22 (1947), 107–111. https://doi.org/10.1112/jlms/s1-22.2.107
  • J. Edmonds, Maximum matching and a polyhedron with 0,1-vertices, Journal of Research of the National Bureau of Standards 69B (1965), 125–130. https://doi.org/10.6028/jres.069B.013
  • L. Lovász and M. D. Plummer, Matching Theory, North-Holland, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1090/chel/367
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Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Convergence of Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming and Related Methods: DOASA Reaches an Optimal Policy in Finitely Many Iterations Almost SurelyResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP), introduced by Pereira and Pinto in 1991, is the standard method for multistage stochastic linear programs with many stages, such as hydro-thermal scheduling and long-term energy planning. It approximates each stage's expected future cost from below by the maximum of finitely many linear functions (cuts), built from LP dual solutions at sampled states, and alternates a forward simulation pass with a backward cut-generation pass. Practitioners stop the method when a simulated upper bound is close to the lower bound C1kC^k_1C1k​. Whether this procedure converges at all is the question of this mission.

Timeline:

  • 1991: Pereira and Pinto publish SDDP, with no convergence proof.
  • 1999: Chen and Powell prove almost-sure convergence for CUPPS; Linowsky and Philpott (2005) extend the argument to SDDP, AND and ReSa. Both proofs rely on an unstated independence assumption between sampled outcomes and convergent subsequences of iterates.
  • 2008: Philpott and Guan (Oper. Res. Lett. 36(4), 450–455) give a proof based on the finiteness of the set of distinct cut coefficients, for a class they call DOASA (Dynamic Outer Approximation Sampling Algorithms).
  • Later work (Shapiro 2011; Girardeau, Leclère and Philpott 2015) extends convergence to convex nonlinear and continuous settings.

Setting

There are T≥2T\ge2T≥2 stages. Stage ttt has a decision xt≥0x_t\ge0xt​≥0 in Rnt\mathbb R^{n_t}Rnt​, costs ctc_tct​, a matrix AtA_tAt​ and, for t≤T−1t\le T-1t≤T−1, a matrix BtB_tBt​ coupling xtx_txt​ to the next stage. At stage 111 the constraint is A1x1=b1A_1x_1=b_1A1​x1​=b1​. For 2≤t≤T2\le t\le T2≤t≤T the right-hand side is random: Atxt=ωt−Bt−1xt−1A_tx_t=\omega_t-B_{t-1}x_{t-1}At​xt​=ωt​−Bt−1​xt−1​, where ωt\omega_tωt​ takes values ωt1,…,ωtqt\omega_{t1},\dots,\omega_{tq_t}ωt1​,…,ωtqt​​ with probabilities pti>0p_{ti}>0pti​>0, independently across stages. The expected cost-to-go is defined backwards from QT+1≡0\mathcal Q_{T+1}\equiv0QT+1​≡0:

Qt(xt−1,ωti)=min⁡{ct⊤xt+Qt+1(xt):Atxt=ωti−Bt−1xt−1, xt≥0},Qt=∑iptiQt(⋅,ωti),Q_t(x_{t-1},\omega_{ti})=\min\{c_t^\top x_t+\mathcal Q_{t+1}(x_t):A_tx_t=\omega_{ti}-B_{t-1}x_{t-1},\ x_t\ge0\},\qquad \mathcal Q_t=\sum_i p_{ti}Q_t(\cdot,\omega_{ti}),Qt​(xt−1​,ωti​)=min{ct⊤​xt​+Qt+1​(xt​):At​xt​=ωti​−Bt−1​xt−1​, xt​≥0},Qt​=i∑​pti​Qt​(⋅,ωti​),

and Q1=min⁡{c1⊤x1+Q2(x1):A1x1=b1,x1≥0}Q_1=\min\{c_1^\top x_1+\mathcal Q_2(x_1):A_1x_1=b_1,x_1\ge0\}Q1​=min{c1⊤​x1​+Q2​(x1​):A1​x1​=b1​,x1​≥0} is the problem [LP1]. Assumption (A4) says every stage problem met along the way has a nonempty, bounded feasible region.

The approximate problem [APtk_t^ktk​] replaces Qt+1\mathcal Q_{t+1}Qt+1​ by max⁡j{αt+1,j−(βt+1j)⊤xt}\max_j\{\alpha_{t+1,j}-(\beta^j_{t+1})^\top x_t\}maxj​{αt+1,j​−(βt+1j​)⊤xt​} over the cuts generated before iteration kkk; its value is CtkC^k_tCtk​. A scenario fixes one outcome per stage 2,…,T−12,\dots,T-12,…,T−1. Each DOASA iteration (i) samples one forward scenario ωk\omega^kωk and solves [APtk_t^ktk​] along it, giving states xtkx^k_txtk​; (ii) for t=T,…,2t=T,\dots,2t=T,…,2 runs the Cut Calculation Algorithm (CCA): it solves [APtk_t^ktk​] at xt−1kx^k_{t-1}xt−1k​ for the outcomes in a backward sample Ωtk\Omega^k_tΩtk​, stores optimal extreme-point dual solutions (π,ρ)(\pi,\rho)(π,ρ) in a collection Dt\mathcal D_tDt​, picks for every outcome the best stored dual, and averages them into a new cut on θt\theta_tθt​. DOASA-N instead traverses a fixed list of NNN scenarios in every iteration.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 under the joint sampling property J

If, with probability 1, every scenario prefix is followed by the forward pass jointly with each outcome being in the backward sample infinitely often (property J), then with probability 1 every DOASA run has an iteration KKK after which the cuts no longer change, the policy xˉ\bar xxˉ they induce is optimal for [LP1], and

C1K=Q1.C^K_1=Q_1 .C1K​=Q1​.

Milestones

  • Monotonicity (p. 4): Ctk+1≥CtkC^{k+1}_t\ge C^k_tCtk+1​≥Ctk​ and C1k+1≥C1kC^{k+1}_1\ge C^k_1C1k+1​≥C1k​.
  • Lower bound (p. 4): every cut is valid, so Ctk≤QtC^k_t\le Q_tCtk​≤Qt​ and C1k≤Q1C^k_1\le Q_1C1k​≤Q1​.
  • Lemma 1 (p. 6): the set Gtk\mathcal G^k_tGtk​ of distinct generated cuts is bounded in size and eventually constant.
  • Lemma 2 (p. 10): DOASA-N stops changing after finitely many iterations, with lim⁡kC1k≤Q1\lim_kC^k_1\le Q_1limk​C1k​≤Q1​.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 10): DOASA-N over all scenarios, with backward sampling infinitely often per scenario, converges almost surely to an optimal policy.

Significance

The theorem justifies SDDP, AND, ReSa and CUPPS as exact methods: on a finite scenario tree, sampling-based cutting-plane schemes reach an optimal policy and a tight lower bound after finitely many iterations, almost surely. The finiteness argument (Lemma 1) is the template for later finite-convergence proofs of SDDP variants.

The paper's proofs are informal. No part of this development is machine-checked, and the printed statement of Theorem 4 is false (see below), so a formal proof also settles exactly which sampling hypothesis is enough. The finite-cut lemma and the cut-validity milestone are reusable for any Benders-type multistage method.

Difficulty

The obvious argument goes: cut sets stabilize (Lemma 1), and every scenario and every outcome is sampled infinitely often, so the limiting cuts must be exact. The last step fails. A cut at a state is exact only if, for every outcome, a dual that is optimal at that state has been collected. Sampling the forward scenario and the backward outcomes infinitely often, but separately, does not ensure this. Lemma 1 itself is also delicate: the dual vectors ρ\rhoρ grow in dimension with kkk, so the collection of extreme-point duals can be infinite even though the cut coefficients take finitely many values. The algorithm's choices (extreme-point duals, ties among best duals) must be handled for every run, not for a convenient one.

Formalization scope

Stages are numbered 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T with variable dimensions per stage. B t is the paper's BtB_tBt​, the matrix multiplying xtx_txt​ in stage t+1t+1t+1. Value functions are real infima, used only on reachable states. Iterations are numbered from 000 in Lean. Explicit choices, each recorded in the item statements:

  • The J correction. The paper states Theorem 4 under FPSP and BPSP. These do not suffice. In a three-stage instance whose last-stage backward sample is {c}\{c\}{c} after forward outcome aaa and {d}\{d\}{d} after bbb, alternating, both properties hold but the cuts stabilize at a suboptimal policy with C1kC^k_1C1k​ below Q1Q_1Q1​. The goal is stated under J, which implies FPSP and BPSP and holds for the schemes the paper names. Lemma 3's BPSP is read per scenario of DOASA-N.
  • Initial cut. The paper's trivial cut θt+1≥−∞\theta_{t+1}\ge-\inftyθt+1​≥−∞ makes [APt1_t^1t1​] unbounded; it is replaced by a finite cut θt+1≥Lt\theta_{t+1}\ge L_tθt+1​≥Lt​ assumed valid on reachable states. Stage TTT uses the exact cut θT+1≥0\theta_{T+1}\ge0θT+1​≥0.
  • (A4) is required on reachable states only.
  • The LP solver is a deterministic oracle on cut sets returning optimal solutions of [APt_tt​], so repeated cuts do not change forward solutions.
  • Duals. Collected duals are optimal extreme points of the dual region; best duals are chosen with arbitrary tie-breaks. No cut is added while the dual collection is empty. Dual multipliers ρ\rhoρ are sequences padded with zeros.
  • Runs are relations covering DOASA and DOASA-N (batched forward scenarios). The conclusions hold for every run consistent with the samples, inside the almost-sure quantifier.

A trivializing encoding, in which cuts are arbitrary valid hyperplanes, duals are taken for all outcomes, or the sampling hypotheses directly assume exactness of the cuts, is ruled out: the run relation transcribes CCA steps 1–3 as printed.

A complete development needs LP weak and strong duality (published on the platform as LinearOptimization.lp_weak_duality and LinearOptimization.lp_strong_duality, in their own encoding), finiteness of the set of extreme points of a polyhedron, and the almost-sure intersection of finitely many events (Mathlib). Contributions to any milestone, to the proof that J holds for independent sampling, and to the counterexample showing FPSP and BPSP are insufficient are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. B. Philpott, Z. Guan, On the convergence of stochastic dual dynamic programming and related methods, Oper. Res. Lett. 36(4) (2008) 450–455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2008.01.013 (cited from the authors' manuscript v24, 2008-02-25)
  • M. V. F. Pereira, L. M. V. G. Pinto, Multi-stage stochastic optimization applied to energy planning, Math. Program. 52 (1991) 359–375. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01582895
  • Z.-L. Chen, W. B. Powell, Convergent cutting-plane and partial-sampling algorithm for multistage stochastic linear programs with recourse, J. Optim. Theory Appl. 102 (1999) 497–524. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022641805263
  • A. Shapiro, Analysis of stochastic dual dynamic programming method, European J. Oper. Res. 209 (2011) 63–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2010.08.007
  • P. Girardeau, V. Leclère, A. B. Philpott, On the convergence of decomposition methods for multistage stochastic convex programs, Math. Oper. Res. 40(1) (2015) 130–145. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2014.0664
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Poisson Approximation for Dependent Trials 2: For φ-Mixing Bernoulli Trials, an Order-λ⁻¹ Bound on |Eh(W) − 𝒫_λh| in Var W − λ + 2(2m+1)Σp_i² and nφ(m+1)Research Paper

Motivation

The number of successes in many rare trials is approximately Poisson. For independent trials the quality of that approximation was quantified by Le Cam in 1960: if X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent Bernoulli variables with P(Xi=1)=piP(X_i=1)=p_iP(Xi​=1)=pi​, W=∑iXiW=\sum_i X_iW=∑i​Xi​ and λ=∑ipi\lambda=\sum_i p_iλ=∑i​pi​, the total variation distance between the law of WWW and the Poisson law with mean λ\lambdaλ is bounded by a constant multiple of ∑ipi2\sum_i p_i^2∑i​pi2​, and by a constant multiple of λ−1∑ipi2\lambda^{-1}\sum_i p_i^2λ−1∑i​pi2​ when λ≥1\lambda\ge 1λ≥1. Many applications have dependent trials: occurrences of a pattern in a sequence, exceedances of a high level by a stationary process, failures in a system with local interactions. L. H. Y. Chen's 1975 paper extended Charles Stein's method of normal approximation to the Poisson case and obtained explicit bounds for dependent trials. The approach became known as the Stein–Chen method, and is now the standard tool for Poisson approximation of dependent counts.

Timeline.

  • 1960. Le Cam proves the independent-trial bounds (0.1)–(0.3) of Chen's introduction.
  • 1964. Kerstan extends them to independent nonnegative integer variables and improves the constant in (0.3).
  • 1970. Stein introduces his method of normal approximation for dependent variables.
  • 1975. Chen (Ann. Probab. 3) adapts it to Poisson approximation. He proves Theorems 4.1–4.4 for sequences satisfying Ibragimov's mixing condition, the mmm-dependent case, and a second-order expansion for independent trials.

This mission formalizes the order-λ−1\lambda^{-1}λ−1 bound of that paper, Theorem 4.2.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and let X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be Bernoulli trials: random variables with values in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} and pi=P(Xi=1)p_i=P(X_i=1)pi​=P(Xi​=1). Following the paper, set Xi≡0X_i\equiv0Xi​≡0 for i≤0i\le0i≤0 and i≥n+1i\ge n+1i≥n+1. Put

W=∑i=1nXi,λ=∑i=1npi.W=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i,\qquad \lambda=\sum_{i=1}^np_i .W=i=1∑n​Xi​,λ=i=1∑n​pi​.

For a bounded real function hhh on the nonnegative integers, the Poisson expectation is

Pλh=e−λ∑k=0∞h(k)λkk!,\mathcal P_\lambda h=e^{-\lambda}\sum_{k=0}^\infty h(k)\frac{\lambda^k}{k!},Pλ​h=e−λk=0∑∞​h(k)k!λk​,

the mean of hhh under the Poisson law with parameter λ\lambdaλ. The quantity of interest is ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣ for all hhh with ∣h∣≤1|h|\le1∣h∣≤1. Its supremum over such hhh is twice the total variation distance between the law of WWW and the Poisson law.

Dependence is measured by Ibragimov's mixing condition (4.1). Let Ma,b=σ(Xi:a≤i≤b)\mathcal M_{a,b}=\sigma(X_i:a\le i\le b)Ma,b​=σ(Xi​:a≤i≤b). There must be a non-increasing sequence φ(k)↓0\varphi(k)\downarrow0φ(k)↓0 such that for all j,k≥1j,k\ge1j,k≥1 and every event B∈Mj+k,∞B\in\mathcal M_{j+k,\infty}B∈Mj+k,∞​,

∣P(B∣M1j)−P(B)∣≤φ(k)almost surely.|P(B\mid\mathcal M_{1j})-P(B)|\le\varphi(k)\quad\text{almost surely}.∣P(B∣M1j​)−P(B)∣≤φ(k)almost surely.

A sequence is mmm-dependent when (X1,…,Xr)(X_1,\dots,X_r)(X1​,…,Xr​) and (Xr+k,… )(X_{r+k},\dots)(Xr+k​,…) are independent for all k>mk>mk>m. It then satisfies (4.1) with φ(k)=0\varphi(k)=0φ(k)=0 for k>mk>mk>m.

The proof works with the partial sums V(i)=∑∣k−i∣>mXkV^{(i)}=\sum_{|k-i|>m}X_kV(i)=∑∣k−i∣>m​Xk​, V(i,j)=∑∣k−i∣>m,∣k−j∣>mXkV^{(i,j)}=\sum_{|k-i|>m,|k-j|>m}X_kV(i,j)=∑∣k−i∣>m,∣k−j∣>m​Xk​, Yij=V(i)+∑k=i−mjXkY_{ij}=V^{(i)}+\sum_{k=i-m}^jX_kYij​=V(i)+∑k=i−mj​Xk​ and Yij′=V(i)+∑k=i−m,k≠ijXkY'_{ij}=V^{(i)}+\sum_{k=i-m,k\ne i}^jX_kYij′​=V(i)+∑k=i−m,k=ij​Xk​. It also uses the Stein solution SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h, the solution for w≥1w\ge1w≥1 of wf(w)−λf(w+1)=h(w)−Pλhwf(w)-\lambda f(w+1)=h(w)-\mathcal P_\lambda hwf(w)−λf(w+1)=h(w)−Pλ​h.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2, (4.13)

For every m=0,1,2,…m=0,1,2,\dotsm=0,1,2,… and every hhh with ∣h∣≤1|h|\le1∣h∣≤1,

∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤2λ−1[8m+5+4(nφ(m+1))1/2][Var⁡(W)−λ+2(2m+1)∑i=1npi2]+32[6m+3+(nφ(m+1))1/2]nφ(m+1).|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|\le2\lambda^{-1}\bigl[8m+5+4(n\varphi(m+1))^{1/2}\bigr]\Bigl[\operatorname{Var}(W)-\lambda+2(2m+1)\sum_{i=1}^np_i^2\Bigr]+32\bigl[6m+3+(n\varphi(m+1))^{1/2}\bigr]n\varphi(m+1).∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣≤2λ−1[8m+5+4(nφ(m+1))1/2][Var(W)−λ+2(2m+1)i=1∑n​pi2​]+32[6m+3+(nφ(m+1))1/2]nφ(m+1).

The bound involves only the law of WWW through Var⁡(W)\operatorname{Var}(W)Var(W), the success probabilities, the window mmm and the mixing rate. The window mmm is free, so the statement covers every trade-off between local dependence and mixing.

Consequences (companion items)

  • Theorem 4.3, (4.21). For mmm-dependent trials, ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤2(8m+5)λ−1[∑∑i≠jCov⁡(Xi,Xj)+(4m+1)∑pi2]|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|\le2(8m+5)\lambda^{-1}\bigl[\sum\sum_{i\ne j}\operatorname{Cov}(X_i,X_j)+(4m+1)\sum p_i^2\bigr]∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣≤2(8m+5)λ−1[∑∑i=j​Cov(Xi​,Xj​)+(4m+1)∑pi2​].
  • Corollary 4.1, (4.23). For independent trials, ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤10λ−1∑pi2|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|\le10\lambda^{-1}\sum p_i^2∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣≤10λ−1∑pi2​. This improves Le Cam's (0.3).
  • Theorem 4.4. For identically distributed trials with φ(m)=e−αm\varphi(m)=e^{-\alpha m}φ(m)=e−αm, there are bounds (4.24) and (4.25) whose constants depend only on α\alphaα.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof:

  • the basic identity (2.2), the Stein solution (2.5) and the expansion (2.6);
  • the bounds on SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h: Lemmas 3.1–3.3, (3.6) and Lemma 3.5;
  • the mixing inequalities, Lemmas 4.1–4.3 and 4.6;
  • the variance bound, Lemma 4.4;
  • the four displays (4.14) and (4.16)–(4.19) of the proof of Theorem 4.2;
  • Cauchy–Schwarz (4.10) and Lemma 4.5.

Significance

Theorem 4.2 gives an error of order λ−1\lambda^{-1}λ−1 times the excess variance Var⁡(W)−λ+O(m∑pi2)\operatorname{Var}(W)-\lambda+O(m\sum p_i^2)Var(W)−λ+O(m∑pi2​), plus a mixing remainder. When the trials are nearly uncorrelated, Var⁡(W)≈λ\operatorname{Var}(W)\approx\lambdaVar(W)≈λ and the bound is small even though λ\lambdaλ is large. This is the regime where the companion Theorem 4.1, which carries a factor min⁡(λ−1/2,1)\min(\lambda^{-1/2},1)min(λ−1/2,1), is weaker. The independent case recovers Le Cam's order λ−1∑pi2\lambda^{-1}\sum p_i^2λ−1∑pi2​ with constant 10. The mmm-dependent case gives explicit Poisson limit theorems for scan statistics and pattern counts.

All results of the paper are proved there, and the proofs are elementary apart from the measure theory of Lemma 4.1. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has the Poisson distribution and conditional expectation, but no Stein–Chen bound and no mixing inequality of Ibragimov's type. A formal proof would give the first checked quantitative Poisson approximation for dependent trials. It would also give reusable covariance inequalities for φ\varphiφ-mixing sequences (Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3).

Difficulty

Most of the work is bookkeeping, and it is heavy. Identity (2.2) needs a telescoping over windows [i−m,j][i-m,j][i−m,j] whose ends can fall outside [1,n][1,n][1,n]. (4.15)–(4.18) need ∣Yi,j−1′+1−λ∣|Y'_{i,j-1}+1-\lambda|∣Yi,j−1′​+1−λ∣ to be compared with ∣V(i,j)−EV(i,j)∣|V^{(i,j)}-EV^{(i,j)}|∣V(i,j)−EV(i,j)∣ with explicit constants.

The genuinely probabilistic step is the decoupling of Lemma 4.2. Condition (4.1) controls conditional probabilities of events. Lemma 4.2 needs a bound on conditional expectations of functions of a whole random vector. Passing from one to the other requires a regular conditional distribution that is uniformly close to the unconditional law on a set of full measure (Lemma 4.1). The naive route, applying (4.1) to each level set of a simple function, loses a factor that grows with the number of levels and does not give the constant 2∥f∥2\|f\|2∥f∥.

The bound (4.16) applies Lemma 4.4 to a subsequence of the trials. This uses the fact that dropping variables preserves (4.1) with the same φ\varphiφ, because φ\varphiφ is non-increasing.

Formalization scope

  • Trials. The trials are a map X:N→Ω→NX:\mathbb N\to\Omega\to\mathbb NX:N→Ω→N that is measurable, vanishes at index 000 and above nnn, and is at most 111 almost surely. The constant padding adds nothing to any σ\sigmaσ-algebra, so (4.1), mmm-dependence and independence of the padded sequence are those of X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​.
  • Probabilities and moments. pip_ipi​ is defined as P(Xi=1)P(X_i=1)P(Xi​=1), not taken as a parameter. Var⁡\operatorname{Var}Var and Cov⁡\operatorname{Cov}Cov are Mathlib's. All integrands are almost surely bounded, so no integrability hypotheses are needed.
  • Norms. Sup norms are replaced by bounds MMM with ∣h∣≤M|h|\le M∣h∣≤M. ∥Sλh∥\|S_\lambda h\|∥Sλ​h∥ ranges over w≥1w\ge1w≥1.
  • Mixing condition. In (4.1) the conditional probability is the conditional expectation of the indicator, and lags are k≥1k\ge1k≥1.
  • Added hypotheses. The §3 lemmas and (2.6), (4.14) assume λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, because they divide by λ\lambdaλ. The goal and the companions do not assume it: at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 all pip_ipi​ vanish, W=0W=0W=0 almost surely, and both sides are 000 under Lean's convention 0−1=00^{-1}=00−1=0.
  • Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3. They are stated for an arbitrary measurable real sequence satisfying (4.1), as on the page. The independent copy Z′Z'Z′ is expressed through the law of ZZZ.
  • Theorem 4.4. Its constants are quantified before the probability space, nnn and the trials. This is what "depend only on α\alphaα" means.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out. Measurability of the trials is part of the definition, because otherwise conditional expectations in (4.1) collapse to 000. The goal mentions only WWW, λ\lambdaλ, pip_ipi​, Var⁡(W)\operatorname{Var}(W)Var(W), φ\varphiφ, mmm and hhh. It does not mention SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h or any milestone quantity.

A complete development needs the Stein solution and its bounds, a Bernoulli-sum calculus over integer windows, regular conditional distributions on standard Borel spaces, and the mixing covariance inequalities. The last two are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of Lemma 4.2 through Mathlib's condDistrib.

Selected references

  • L. H. Y. Chen, Poisson approximation for dependent trials, Annals of Probability 3(3):534–545, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996359
  • L. Le Cam, An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 10(4):1181–1197, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1960.10.1181
  • C. Stein, A bound for the error in the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of dependent random variables, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 2:583–602, 1972. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514239
  • I. A. Ibragimov, Some limit theorems for stationary processes, Theory of Probability and its Applications 7(4):349–382, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1137/1107036
  • A. D. Barbour, L. Holst, S. Janson, Poisson Approximation, Oxford University Press, 1992. ISBN 978-0-19-852235-9
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Efficient Monte Carlo Procedures for Generating Points Uniformly Distributed over Bounded Regions 1: Symmetric Mixing Algorithms Converge to the Uniform Distribution from Every Starting PointResearch Paper

Motivation

Sampling uniformly from a bounded region can be difficult when direct transformation of a familiar random variable is unavailable and rejection sampling spends most of its trials outside the region. Robert L. Smith studied procedures that move within the region: from the current point, choose a direction, form the line set through that point inside the region, and choose the next point uniformly on that line set. The resulting sequence is a homogeneous Markov chain. The Random Directions Algorithm, later commonly called hit-and-run, is a central instance of this construction. Smith's 1984 paper establishes conditions under which the chain approaches the uniform distribution even when its initial point is fixed rather than sampled uniformly (Smith 1984, pp. 1298–1301).

For simulation, the initial point is usually chosen because it is known to be feasible. The question is therefore whether the distribution after many moves forgets that particular choice. A stationary distribution alone does not answer this: stationarity describes what happens if the chain already starts with that distribution. Smith's Theorem 2 gives the stronger, pointwise starting-state statement for the class of symmetric mixing algorithms satisfying his two regularity assumptions (Smith 1984, p. 1301).

Setting

Let SSS be the state region and VVV its finite, nonzero content measure. In Smith's geometric setting, SSS is a bounded kkk-dimensional measurable region in Rn\mathbb R^nRn, and VVV is kkk-dimensional content; at k=0k=0k=0, content is counting measure. A Markov transition kernel PPP assigns to every current point x∈Sx\in Sx∈S a probability P(x,A)P(x,A)P(x,A) of entering a measurable set A⊆SA\subseteq SA⊆S on the next move. For the associated chain (X0,X1,…)(X_0,X_1,\ldots)(X0​,X1​,…), the mmm-step transition probability is Pm(x,A)=P(Xm∈A∣X0=x)P^m(x,A)=\mathbb P(X_m\in A\mid X_0=x)Pm(x,A)=P(Xm​∈A∣X0​=x).

The uniform law is λ(A)=V(A)/V(S)\lambda(A)=V(A)/V(S)λ(A)=V(A)/V(S). Smith's Assumption (a) gives a measurable transition density f(y∣x)f(y\mid x)f(y∣x) relative to VVV:

P(x,A)=∫Af(y∣x) V(dy).P(x,A)=\int_A f(y\mid x)\,V(dy).P(x,A)=∫A​f(y∣x)V(dy).

For a symmetric mixing algorithm, the paper states that this density satisfies f(y∣x)=f(x∣y)f(y\mid x)=f(x\mid y)f(y∣x)=f(x∣y) for all x,y∈Sx,y\in Sx,y∈S. Assumption (b) says f(y∣x)>0f(y\mid x)>0f(y∣x)>0 for all such pairs. These are pointwise conditions, including states of zero VVV-measure. A nonempty measurable set AAA is closed if P(x,A)=1P(x,A)=1P(x,A)=1 for every x∈Ax\in Ax∈A. The chain is indecomposable in the paper's sense when it has no two disjoint closed sets (Smith 1984, pp. 1299–1300).

Formalization targets

Stationarity and indecomposability

Lemma 1 asserts that λ\lambdaλ is stationary: λ(A)=∫SP(x,A) λ(dx)\lambda(A)=\int_S P(x,A)\,\lambda(dx)λ(A)=∫S​P(x,A)λ(dx) for every measurable AAA. Lemma 2 excludes two disjoint closed sets. Both are direct prerequisites of the goal. Smith's Theorem 1 also establishes uniqueness of the stationary distribution and almost-sure convergence of empirical visit frequencies under a stationary start; it is described in the source, but its trajectory-level formalization is outside this proposal (Smith 1984, p. 1300).

Convergence from every starting point

The mission goal is Smith's Theorem 2. For every x∈Sx\in Sx∈S and every measurable A⊆SA\subseteq SA⊆S,

lim⁡m→∞Pm(x,A)=λ(A).\lim_{m\to\infty}P^m(x,A)=\lambda(A).m→∞lim​Pm(x,A)=λ(A).

This is the paper's explicit meaning of strongly mixing. The milestone list also records the proof's stated nonperiodicity condition: for every n≥2n\ge2n≥2, the nnn-step transition law has no two disjoint closed sets. It is a target in its own right because it concerns all higher-step kernels, not only the one-step chain (Smith 1984, p. 1301).

Significance

Theorem 2 makes the uniform law the limiting distribution of the sample at time mmm, for any fixed feasible initial point. The paper's Theorem 1 supplies a different guarantee about long-run empirical frequencies under a stationary start, although it is not a target of this proposal. Smith later specializes the framework to the Random Directions Algorithm and gives a quantitative rate under additional geometric conditions; that rate is the subject of the companion mission (Smith 1984, pp. 1303–1304).

These results are proved in the paper but the declarations in this proposal are theorem statements with sorry, not machine-checked proofs. A completed formalization would turn the paper's measure-theoretic claims into reusable statements about general measurable state spaces and kernels. The normalized content law, the density interface, and closed-set predicate can be reused when studying other Monte Carlo kernels with the same hypotheses.

Difficulty

The main obstacle is the jump from stationary behavior to convergence from every starting point. Symmetry identifies the candidate stationary law, and strict positivity limits how the chain can split into closed parts, but neither sentence by itself establishes the claimed limit of Pm(x,A)P^m(x,A)Pm(x,A). The distinction matters especially at starting points in VVV-null sets: an almost-everywhere starting-state result would leave out precisely the universal claim in Theorem 2. The paper appeals to a general-state Markov-chain convergence result for this step (Smith 1984, p. 1301).

Formalization scope

Lean uses a measurable type α\alphaα as the whole region SSS, a finite measure VVV with V(S)≠0V(S)\ne0V(S)=0, a Markov kernel PPP, and an extended-nonnegative density f:α→α→R≥0∞f:\alpha\to\alpha\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}^{\infty}f:α→α→R≥0∞​. The density is jointly measurable and is linked to PPP by the integral identity above; symmetry is pointwise, and positivity is added only for Lemma 2 and Theorems 1–2. This abstract representation retains the hypotheses those results use without fixing a particular Euclidean dimension. It covers the counting-content case as well as continuous content, although it does not construct the geometric direction-and-chord algorithm. The Random Directions kernel belongs to the companion mission.

The uniform law is normalized by V(S)V(S)V(S). Finiteness and nonzero total content prevent a meaningless inverse or an empty probability space. The mmm-step law is the published MarkovChainCLT.iterKernel. Theorem 2 quantifies over every xxx, rather than λ\lambdaλ-almost every xxx, and uses setwise convergence on each measurable AAA. No invariance, uniqueness, minorization, or convergence premise is added to the goal. Detaching fff from PPP would empty out the substantive assertion. Formal contributions can target the density-to-invariance argument, the closed-set conditions, and the general-state convergence theorem needed for the goal. The paper's separate pathwise Theorem 1 remains an appropriate later extension.

Selected references

  • Robert L. Smith, Efficient Monte Carlo Procedures for Generating Points Uniformly Distributed over Bounded Regions, Operations Research 32(6), 1296–1308, 1984. DOI: 10.1287/opre.32.6.1296.
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convergence Analysis of a Proximal-Like Minimization Algorithm Using Bregman Functions: PMD Attains f(xⁿ) − f(u) ≤ σₙ⁻¹D_ψ(u, x⁰) and Its Iterates Converge to a MinimizerResearch Paper

Motivation

Convex minimization often has a simple objective but no useful closed form for its minimizer. A proximal method replaces one difficult minimization by a sequence of regularized minimizations. The familiar quadratic regularizer treats all directions through a Euclidean norm. In applications with nonnegative variables, entropy-like geometry can be more natural: a step can be penalized by a Bregman distance generated by a strictly convex function. Chen and Teboulle studied a proximal minimization algorithm with this geometry and established a rate in objective values together with convergence of the iterates under the paper's assumptions. Their analysis also removed a bounded-below assumption used in an earlier treatment and allowed step sizes whose sum diverges even if individual steps approach zero (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, pp. 539–540).

This mission records the complete theorem of that paper, rather than only its rate when a minimizer is known to exist. The distinction matters because a proper convex objective can have an infimum of −∞-\infty−∞ or a finite infimum that it never attains. The rate against each comparison point remains meaningful in those cases, and the theorem's value convergence does not presuppose a minimizer.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real normed space, C⊆EC\subseteq EC⊆E the nonempty effective domain of a proper lower semicontinuous convex objective, and f:C→Rf:C\to\mathbb Rf:C→R its finite restriction. Its value outside CCC is +∞+\infty+∞. Thus f∗=inf⁡u∈Cf(u)f_* = \inf_{u\in C}f(u)f∗​=infu∈C​f(u) is an extended-real number that may equal −∞-\infty−∞, and X∗={u∈C:f(u)≤f(v) for every v∈C}X_* = \{u\in C: f(u)\le f(v)\text{ for every }v\in C\}X∗​={u∈C:f(u)≤f(v) for every v∈C} is the set of minimizers, possibly empty.

A Bregman function with zone SSS is a function ψ\psiψ on the closure Sˉ\bar SSˉ of an open set SSS. It is continuously differentiable on SSS, strictly convex and continuous on Sˉ\bar SSˉ, and satisfies the bounded partial-level-set and two sequential conditions of Definition 2.1 (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, p. 539). Its distance-like expression is

Dψ(u,y)=ψ(u)−ψ(y)−⟨u−y,∇ψ(y)⟩,u∈Sˉ, y∈S.D_\psi(u,y)=\psi(u)-\psi(y)-\langle u-y,\nabla\psi(y)\rangle, \qquad u\in\bar S,\ y\in S.Dψ​(u,y)=ψ(u)−ψ(y)−⟨u−y,∇ψ(y)⟩,u∈Sˉ, y∈S.

It is nonnegative and zero exactly when u=yu=yu=y, but need not be symmetric or satisfy a triangle inequality. The zone contains the relative interior of CCC. Starting from x0∈Sx^0\in Sx0∈S and positive steps λk\lambda_kλk​, a PMD run selects xk∈S∩Cx^k\in S\cap Cxk∈S∩C minimizing f(u)+λk−1Dψ(u,xk−1)f(u)+\lambda_k^{-1}D_\psi(u,x^{k-1})f(u)+λk−1​Dψ​(u,xk−1) over u∈C∩Sˉu\in C\cap\bar Su∈C∩Sˉ, for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. Write σn=∑k=1nλk\sigma_n=\sum_{k=1}^n\lambda_kσn​=∑k=1n​λk​. The paper calls this proximal minimization with D-functions (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, pp. 539–540).

Formalization targets

Rate and value convergence

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and every finite comparison point u∈C∩Sˉu\in C\cap\bar Su∈C∩Sˉ, the goal includes

f(xn)−f(u)≤σn−1Dψ(u,x0).f(x^n)-f(u)\le\sigma_n^{-1}D_\psi(u,x^0).f(xn)−f(u)≤σn−1​Dψ​(u,x0).

If σn→+∞\sigma_n\to+\inftyσn​→+∞, then f(xn)→f∗f(x^n)\to f_*f(xn)→f∗​ in the extended reals, including when f∗=−∞f_*=-\inftyf∗​=−∞. This is Theorem 3.4's inequality (20) and its ensuing value-convergence claim (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, p. 542).

Minimizer bound and iterate convergence

For every x∗∈X∗x^*\in X_*x∗∈X∗​, the same rate gives

f(xn)−f(x∗)≤σn−1Dψ(x∗,x0),n≥1.f(x^n)-f(x^*)\le\sigma_n^{-1}D_\psi(x^*,x^0),\qquad n\ge1.f(xn)−f(x∗)≤σn−1​Dψ​(x∗,x0),n≥1.

When X∗≠∅X_*\ne\varnothingX∗​=∅ and σn→+∞\sigma_n\to+\inftyσn​→+∞, the entire sequence xnx^nxn converges to a point of X∗X_*X∗​. The displayed bound is (21), and convergence of the iterates is the final clause of Theorem 3.4. The milestone list follows the authors' statements: the three-point identity, nonnegativity of the distance, Lemma 3.2, and the three parts of Lemma 3.3. Display (17) is an additional supporting theorem item (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, pp. 539–542).

Significance

The rate compares a PMD iterate with any admissible point, so it gives a finite-horizon certificate even before an optimal point is identified. If a minimizer exists, substituting it gives an explicit objective-gap bound. With divergent cumulative steps, the theorem identifies the limiting objective value without assuming that value is finite. Its final clause goes further: when the optimum is attained, the points themselves converge, not merely their objective values (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, p. 542).

The mathematical result was proved in 1993. The formalization task is to state and prove it in Lean with the extended objective, full Bregman-function conditions, and sequence limits visible to later developments. The three-point identity is already posed as a separate public platform theorem from a later mirror-descent treatment; this mission reuses that statement. The remaining statements here are proof obligations, not claims of completed machine-checked proofs. Their definition layer can also support analyses of other nonquadratic proximal algorithms.

Difficulty

The direct one-step minimization comparison alone does not yield the global estimate with σn\sigma_nσn​ and the exact weighted distance terms of Lemma 3.3(iii). It also does not settle convergence of the points: decreasing objective values can coexist with several cluster points. The Bregman function's bounded partial level sets and sequential conditions are needed to rule out that behavior. A further issue appears when f∗=−∞f_*=-\inftyf∗​=−∞: replacing the infimum by a real number, or assuming a minimizer to define it, removes a case that Theorem 3.4 explicitly covers. The original paper separates these issues across Lemmas 3.2–3.3 and Theorem 3.4 (Chen and Teboulle, 1993, pp. 540–542).

Formalization scope

Lean uses a finite-dimensional real normed space in place of Rn\mathbb R^nRn; none of the statements depends on a chosen Euclidean inner product. A derivative is a continuous linear functional, and its value on a vector represents the paper's gradient pairing. The Bregman distance is the already-published definition with the derivative at its second argument. The paper's ψ:Sˉ→R\psi:\bar S\to\mathbb Rψ:Sˉ→R is represented by a total function whose values outside Sˉ\bar SSˉ are unused. Strict convexity on Sˉ\bar SSˉ includes convexity of Sˉ\bar SSˉ. The last sequential condition explicitly requires its first arguments to lie in Sˉ\bar SSˉ, the domain where the paper defines DψD_\psiDψ​.

The extended objective is a nonempty convex domain CCC, a real-valued restriction fff, and an extended-real function equal to +∞+\infty+∞ off CCC. Lower semicontinuity applies to that extended function. The infimum f∗f_*f∗​ is taken in the extended reals; it cannot silently become zero when the values are unbounded below. A PMD run is a predicate on an existing sequence, recording a minimizer in S∩CS\cap CS∩C at each step. This makes explicit the existence consequence for which the paper assumes the gradient of ψ\psiψ has full range; it does not define iterates by a choice operator. Every Bregman distance differentiates at a point of SSS, where ψ\psiψ is C1C^1C1. The rate starts at n=1n=1n=1, so σn>0\sigma_n>0σn​>0 and no finite value is demanded of x0x^0x0. No lower bound on fff is imposed. Contributions proving the milestone inequalities, the extended-real value limit, the Bregman-function examples, and the compactness step for iterate convergence are within scope.

Selected references

  • Gong Chen and Marc Teboulle, Convergence analysis of a proximal-like minimization algorithm using Bregman functions, SIAM Journal on Optimization 3(3), 538–543, 1993. DOI: 10.1137/0803026.
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Poisson Approximation for Dependent Trials 3: For Independent Trials with max p_i ≤ λ/2, |Eh(W) − 𝒫_λh + (Σp_i²)𝒫_λU_λh| ≤ (24 + 96√2)λ⁻¹Σp_i³Research Paper

Motivation

The number of successes in many rare, roughly independent trials is approximately Poisson. This law of small numbers is used for counts of rare events in reliability, insurance, epidemiology, queueing and random combinatorics. A quantitative version says how large the error is. For independent Bernoulli trials with success probabilities p1,…,pnp_1,\dots,p_np1​,…,pn​ and λ=∑pi\lambda=\sum p_iλ=∑pi​, Le Cam (1960) showed that the error in total variation is of order ∑pi2\sum p_i^2∑pi2​. When all pip_ipi​ are small this tends to zero, but it does not say what the leading part of the error is.

L. H. Y. Chen's 1975 paper (Ann. Probab. 3, 534–545) adapted Charles Stein's method for normal approximation to the Poisson case. The result is now called the Stein–Chen method. The paper's §2–§4 give first-order error bounds for dependent (mixing) trials. Its §5, "A refinement", goes one order further for independent trials. It identifies the first-order correction explicitly and shows that what remains is of order λ−1∑pi3\lambda^{-1}\sum p_i^3λ−1∑pi3​. Kerstan (1964) had obtained a similar expansion by a different method. Chen's version comes from iterating the basic identity of the Stein–Chen method. This mission formalizes §5.

Timeline:

  • 1953: Prohorov bounds the distance between the binomial and the Poisson law.
  • 1960: Le Cam proves the ∑pi2\sum p_i^2∑pi2​ bound for independent, non-identical trials. Hodges and Le Cam give a short proof.
  • 1964: Kerstan gives a refinement of the Prohorov–Le Cam bounds.
  • 1975: Chen introduces the Stein–Chen method. It gives first-order bounds under Ibragimov's mixing condition and the second-order expansion (Theorem 5.1) for independent trials.

Setting

Let X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be independent random variables on a probability space, each taking only the values 000 and 111, with success probabilities pi=P(Xi=1)p_i=P(X_i=1)pi​=P(Xi​=1). Put

W=∑i=1nXi,λ=∑i=1npi,W(i)=∑k≠iXk,λ(i)=∑j≠ipj.W=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i,\qquad\lambda=\sum_{i=1}^np_i,\qquad W^{(i)}=\sum_{k\ne i}X_k,\qquad\lambda^{(i)}=\sum_{j\ne i}p_j .W=i=1∑n​Xi​,λ=i=1∑n​pi​,W(i)=k=i∑​Xk​,λ(i)=j=i∑​pj​.

For a bounded real function hhh on the nonnegative integers, the Poisson expectation is

Pλh=e−λ∑k=0∞h(k)λkk!,\mathscr P_\lambda h=e^{-\lambda}\sum_{k=0}^\infty h(k)\frac{\lambda^k}{k!},Pλ​h=e−λk=0∑∞​h(k)k!λk​,

the mean of hhh under the Poisson law with parameter λ\lambdaλ. The Stein equation is wf(w)−λf(w+1)=h(w)−Pλhwf(w)-\lambda f(w+1)=h(w)-\mathscr P_\lambda hwf(w)−λf(w+1)=h(w)−Pλ​h. For w≥1w\ge1w≥1 its solution is

Sλh(w)=−(w−1)! λ−w∑k=0w−1[h(k)−Pλh]λkk!.S_\lambda h(w)=-(w-1)!\,\lambda^{-w}\sum_{k=0}^{w-1}\bigl[h(k)-\mathscr P_\lambda h\bigr]\frac{\lambda^k}{k!}.Sλ​h(w)=−(w−1)!λ−wk=0∑w−1​[h(k)−Pλ​h]k!λk​.

Write Δf(w)=f(w+1)−f(w)\Delta f(w)=f(w+1)-f(w)Δf(w)=f(w+1)−f(w) and Lf(w)=f(w+1)Lf(w)=f(w+1)Lf(w)=f(w+1). Chen's second-order operator is

Uλh(w)=ΔSλh(w+1)=Sλh(w+2)−Sλh(w+1),w≥0.U_\lambda h(w)=\Delta S_\lambda h(w+1)=S_\lambda h(w+2)-S_\lambda h(w+1),\qquad w\ge0 .Uλ​h(w)=ΔSλ​h(w+1)=Sλ​h(w+2)−Sλ​h(w+1),w≥0.

For another parameter b>0b>0b>0, SbUλhS_bU_\lambda hSb​Uλ​h and UbUλhU_bU_\lambda hUb​Uλ​h apply the Stein solution and the operator with parameter bbb to the function UλhU_\lambda hUλ​h.

In Lean: poissonExp, stein, delta, shiftL, stU, prob, lam, lamExcept, W, Wi, all in the namespace PoissonDepTrials.SecondOrder.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1, (5.7)

If X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent, n≥2n\ge2n≥2 and pˉ=max⁡ipi≤λ/2\bar p=\max_ip_i\le\lambda/2pˉ​=maxi​pi​≤λ/2, then for every hhh with ∣h∣≤1|h|\le1∣h∣≤1,

∣Eh(W)−Pλh+(∑i=1npi2)PλUλh∣≤(24+962)λ−1∑i=1npi3.\Bigl|Eh(W)-\mathscr P_\lambda h+\Bigl(\sum_{i=1}^np_i^2\Bigr)\mathscr P_\lambda U_\lambda h\Bigr|\le\bigl(24+96\sqrt2\bigr)\lambda^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^np_i^3 .​Eh(W)−Pλ​h+(i=1∑n​pi2​)Pλ​Uλ​h​≤(24+962​)λ−1i=1∑n​pi3​.

The paper writes the constant as "an absolute constant CCC not greater than 24+96(2)1/224+96(2)^{1/2}24+96(2)1/2". The formal goal fixes CCC at that value, which is the same statement.

Milestones

In order: the Stein solution (2.3)/(2.5); the difference identity (3.6); Lemmas 3.1, 3.2, 3.3 and 3.5 (bounds on SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h and ΔSλh\Delta S_\lambda hΔSλ​h); the first-order identity (5.8) Eh(W)=Pλh−∑ipi2EUλh(W(i))Eh(W)=\mathscr P_\lambda h-\sum_ip_i^2EU_\lambda h(W^{(i)})Eh(W)=Pλ​h−∑i​pi2​EUλ​h(W(i)); Lemmas 5.1 and 5.2 (dependence of Poisson expectations on the parameter); Lemmas 5.3–5.5 (bounds on Pb∣LmUλh∣\mathscr P_b|L^mU_\lambda h|Pb​∣LmUλ​h∣, SbUλhS_bU_\lambda hSb​Uλ​h and UbUλhU_bU_\lambda hUb​Uλ​h); the bound (5.9),

∣Eh(W)−Pλh+(∑pi2)PλUλh∣≤24λ−1∑ipi3+96λ−1∑i∑j≠ipi2pj2λ(i);\Bigl|Eh(W)-\mathscr P_\lambda h+\Bigl(\sum p_i^2\Bigr)\mathscr P_\lambda U_\lambda h\Bigr|\le24\lambda^{-1}\sum_ip_i^3+96\lambda^{-1}\sum_i\sum_{j\ne i}\frac{p_i^2p_j^2}{\lambda^{(i)}};​Eh(W)−Pλ​h+(∑pi2​)Pλ​Uλ​h​≤24λ−1i∑​pi3​+96λ−1i∑​j=i∑​λ(i)pi2​pj2​​;

and the closing inequality λ−1∑ipi2∑j≠ipj2/λ(i)≤2 λ−1∑ipi3\lambda^{-1}\sum_ip_i^2\sum_{j\ne i}p_j^2/\lambda^{(i)}\le\sqrt2\,\lambda^{-1}\sum_ip_i^3λ−1∑i​pi2​∑j=i​pj2​/λ(i)≤2​λ−1∑i​pi3​.

Significance

The theorem gives an explicit first correction to the Poisson approximation of a Poisson-binomial law, with a remainder of the next order. When all pip_ipi​ equal ppp, the first-order error ∑pi2=λp\sum p_i^2=\lambda p∑pi2​=λp is replaced by the remainder λ−1∑pi3=p2\lambda^{-1}\sum p_i^3=p^2λ−1∑pi3​=p2, which is smaller by the factor λ\lambdaλ. The correction term is a functional of the Poisson law alone, −(∑pi2)PλUλh-(\sum p_i^2)\mathscr P_\lambda U_\lambda h−(∑pi2​)Pλ​Uλ​h. It can be evaluated without knowing the distribution of WWW. The method of proof applies the basic identity twice. The paper notes that further iteration gives expansions to any order.

On the formal side, Mathlib has the Poisson distribution but no Stein–Chen machinery and no quantitative Poisson approximation. The theorem has, as far as is known, no machine-checked proof. This mission produces the Stein solution and its standard bounds (Lemmas 3.1–3.5), which are reusable by any Stein–Chen argument. It also produces the parameter-perturbation estimates of Lemmas 5.1–5.2 and a complete second-order expansion. Missions 1 and 2 of this series formalize the first-order bounds of §4 under a mixing condition. They share the Stein-solution layer.

Difficulty

The first-order bound needs only that ΔSλh\Delta S_\lambda hΔSλ​h is uniformly small (Lemma 3.4). A second-order bound needs more. After the first application of the identity, the error ∑pi2EUλh(W(i))\sum p_i^2EU_\lambda h(W^{(i)})∑pi2​EUλ​h(W(i)) has to be expanded again. That requires control of the iterated operator UbUλhU_bU_\lambda hUb​Uλ​h with a different parameter b=λ(i)b=\lambda^{(i)}b=λ(i), because W(i)W^{(i)}W(i) is approximately Poisson with mean λ(i)\lambda^{(i)}λ(i), not λ\lambdaλ. The bound on UbUλhU_bU_\lambda hUb​Uλ​h (Lemma 5.5) grows linearly in ∣w−λ∣|w-\lambda|∣w−λ∣. Applying the uniform bounds of §3 throughout loses a factor λ1/2\lambda^{1/2}λ1/2 and produces an error of order λ−1/2∑pi3\lambda^{-1/2}\sum p_i^3λ−1/2∑pi3​ instead of λ−1∑pi3\lambda^{-1}\sum p_i^3λ−1∑pi3​. The linear growth has to be paired with the variance of W(i,j)W^{(i,j)}W(i,j). The averaging over pairs (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) in the final step uses the condition pˉ≤λ/2\bar p\le\lambda/2pˉ​≤λ/2, which keeps every λ(i)\lambda^{(i)}λ(i) comparable to λ\lambdaλ.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • The trials are a sequence X : ℕ → Ω → ℕ. Each XiX_iXi​ is measurable with values in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} almost surely. Xi≡0X_i\equiv0Xi​≡0 for i=0i=0i=0 and i>ni>ni>n, which is the paper's own padding convention (p. 535). Independence is iIndepFun (fun i => X i) P over all of ℕ. Because the padding variables are constants, this is equivalent to independence of X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​.
  • pip_ipi​ is defined from XXX, not taken as a parameter.
  • ∥h∥\|h\|∥h∥ is replaced by an arbitrary bound MMM with ∣h(k)∣≤M|h(k)|\le M∣h(k)∣≤M for all kkk. The norm of SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h is taken over its domain w≥1w\ge1w≥1.
  • pˉ≤λ/2\bar p\le\lambda/2pˉ​≤λ/2 is written as pi≤λ/2p_i\le\lambda/2pi​≤λ/2 for every i∈{1,…,n}i\in\{1,\dots,n\}i∈{1,…,n}.
  • The goal assumes neither λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 nor integrability. Every function involved is bounded, so every expectation and Poisson sum is genuine. At λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 both sides of (5.7) vanish.

Hypotheses added relative to the page, each disclosed in the item's Formalization Note:

  • λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 in the §3 and §5 lemmas, in (5.8) and in (5.9). These divide by λ\lambdaλ, by bbb or by λ(i)\lambda^{(i)}λ(i).
  • b>0b>0b>0 in Lemmas 5.3–5.5, which is the standing range of §5.
  • Boundedness of fff in Lemma 5.2. The lemma is only applied to bounded functions.

The random indices I,JI,JI,J that the paper introduces to shorten notation in (5.8)–(5.9) are not formalized. The same quantities are written as finite sums over indices.

Ruled out: the second-order term must be the operator Uλh=ΔSλh(⋅+1)U_\lambda h=\Delta S_\lambda h(\cdot+1)Uλ​h=ΔSλ​h(⋅+1) built from the Stein solution exactly as on p. 543. A free function, or UλhU_\lambda hUλ​h evaluated at the junk value Sλh(0)S_\lambda h(0)Sλ​h(0), would empty the theorem.

Welcome contributions include:

  • the Stein-solution bounds of §3, which are reusable well beyond this paper;
  • Poisson-sum manipulations (Lemmas 5.1–5.2);
  • the independence bookkeeping that turns (2.6) into (5.8).

Selected references

  • L. H. Y. Chen, Poisson approximation for dependent trials, Ann. Probab. 3(3):534–545, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996359
  • L. Le Cam, An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution, Pacific J. Math. 10:1181–1197, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1960.10.1181
  • J. L. Hodges and L. Le Cam, The Poisson approximation to the Poisson binomial distribution, Ann. Math. Statist. 31:737–740, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177705799
  • J. Kerstan, Verallgemeinerung eines Satzes von Prochorow und Le Cam, Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie verw. Gebiete 2:173–179, 1964. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00533419
  • C. Stein, A bound for the error in the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of dependent random variables, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob. 2, 1972. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514239
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CombinatoricsDynamic ProgrammingGraph Theory+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes IV: In a Deterministic Process a Cheapest T-Arc Walk Is a Walk of Fewer Than n³ Arcs Plus One Repeated CycleResearch Paper

Motivation

Finite-horizon Markov decision processes ask which decisions minimize accumulated cost over a specified number of stages. In a stationary process, the same costs and transitions apply at every stage. This compact input can describe a horizon TTT much larger than the state set, so a method that processes all TTT stages one by one may take time exponential in the length of the written horizon. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis identified this issue while comparing sequential and parallel algorithms for decision processes. For the deterministic stationary case, their Theorem 5 states an NC classification, supported by a finite structural description of a cheapest long walk. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987)

The structural description is the subject of this mission. It connects a policy optimization problem to bounded-length graph objects and an exact cost identity. This is useful independently of a particular model of parallel computation: it says which shorter walk and cycle costs determine the answer even when the horizon is very large. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Setting

Let SSS be a finite nonempty set of states, with n=∣S∣n=|S|n=∣S∣, and fix an initial state s0s_0s0​. At each state sss, a finite nonempty set DsD_sDs​ contains the available decisions. A decision d∈Dsd\in D_sd∈Ds​ has a certain successor state next⁡(s,d)\operatorname{next}(s,d)next(s,d) and a real cost c(s,d)c(s,d)c(s,d). The model is stationary: these data do not depend on time. The corresponding directed graph has one arc for each decision. It may have loops and parallel arcs, because distinct decisions can share endpoints. This is the deterministic graph translation made in §3 of the paper. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 444–445

A policy is a function δ(s,t)∈Ds\delta(s,t)\in D_sδ(s,t)∈Ds​ of both state and time. Starting at s0s_0s0​, it produces st+1=next⁡(st,δ(st,t))s_{t+1}=\operatorname{next}(s_t,\delta(s_t,t))st+1​=next(st​,δ(st​,t)). In the convention of the paragraph before Theorem 5, horizon TTT means TTT decisions and therefore a walk with TTT arcs. Its cost is

JT(s0,δ)=∑t=0T−1c(st,δ(st,t)),JT∗(s0)=inf⁡δJT(s0,δ).J_T(s_0,\delta)=\sum_{t=0}^{T-1}c(s_t,\delta(s_t,t)),\qquad J_T^*(s_0)=\inf_\delta J_T(s_0,\delta).JT​(s0​,δ)=t=0∑T−1​c(st​,δ(st​,t)),JT∗​(s0​)=δinf​JT​(s0​,δ).

A walk records the states and the decision arc used at each step; states may repeat. A simple path has no repeated state. A simple cycle has positive length, returns to its starting state, and has no other repeated state. A closed walk may repeat states internally and need not be a simple cycle. The distinction matters because the structural claim uses a simple cycle, whereas the computation in the target identity uses a cheapest closed walk of a chosen length.

Formalization targets

The first milestone identifies JT∗(s0)J_T^*(s_0)JT∗​(s0​) with the minimum cost of a TTT-arc walk from s0s_0s0​. The next milestones record a decomposition into a simple path and simple cycles, the restriction on cycles repeated more than nnn times, and the existence of a cheapest walk with a short prefix and one repeated simple cycle. These are claims in the paragraph preceding Theorem 5, with corrections to the printed exchange and its connectivity justification documented in the formal statements. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

For l≤Tl\le Tl≤T and u∈Su\in Su∈S, let wl,uw_{l,u}wl,u​ be the cheapest lll-arc walk from s0s_0s0​ that visits uuu. Let rk,ur_{k,u}rk,u​ be the cheapest closed kkk-arc walk at uuu. Only choices for which these walks exist are included. The mission's goal is

JT∗(s0)=min⁡l≤T, l<n3, u∈S,1≤k≤n, k∣T−l(wl,u+T−lk rk,u),T>n2.J_T^*(s_0)=\min_{\substack{l\le T,\ l<n^3,\ u\in S,\\1\le k\le n,\ k\mid T-l}}\left(w_{l,u}+\frac{T-l}{k}\,r_{k,u}\right),\qquad T>n^2.JT∗​(s0​)=l≤T, l<n3, u∈S,1≤k≤n, k∣T−l​min​(wl,u​+kT−l​rk,u​),T>n2.

The l<n3l<n^3l<n3 bound is the paper's finite compression claim. The divisibility condition makes (T−l)/k(T-l)/k(T−l)/k an integer number of cycle copies. The goal states an exact value, with the inner minima taken over genuine walks and the outer optimum still taken over all policies. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Significance

The identity replaces an optimization over arbitrarily many time-dependent policy decisions with costs of walks having fewer than n3n^3n3 arcs and closed walks of at most nnn arcs. It gives the mathematical statement that must hold before the paper's proposed parallel calculation can be trusted. It also applies when several different decisions have the same endpoints, because each decision remains a separate weighted arc. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 445, 447

The paper proves the result informally and states the NC classification. The mission seeks machine-checked proofs of the graph and cost statements, including the printed argument's delicate boundary cases. The local proposal contains open Lean theorem statements, not proofs. Reusable outcomes include a decision-walk representation, a cycle decomposition that preserves the multiset of arcs, and finite-horizon policy-to-walk equivalence. A related published result, TropicalLA.exists_repeat, detects repetition for dense max-plus matrices; it does not state this weighted multigraph decomposition or the min-cost identity.

Difficulty

The obstacle is preserving both walk feasibility and the exact number of arcs when repeated cycles are rearranged. A cycle may be the only connection to other parts of a walk, so deleting its last copy can invalidate the remaining sequence. The printed exchange paragraph also reverses the cost-improving direction and appeals to a no-ties perturbation without carrying it through the bounded-prefix conclusion. Those issues affect the claimed n3n^3n3 bound; merely knowing that a long walk repeats a vertex does not establish the target identity. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), p. 447

Formalization scope

Lean represents SSS and each DsD_sDs​ as finite types and uses real costs. The decision sets are nonempty, making policies and arbitrarily long walks available. Policies depend on state and time, as in §2. A walk stores its decisions as well as its states, so loops and parallel arcs are represented. Cycle decompositions preserve endpoints, length, cost, and the multiset of decision arcs. A loop is a simple cycle of length one. Time starts at zero, and an lll-arc walk has states at indices 0,…,l0,\ldots,l0,…,l.

The paper's general finite-horizon definition sums costs from 000 through TTT, while the Theorem 5 paragraph explicitly asks for a TTT-arc walk. This mission follows the latter convention: decisions occur at 0,…,T−10,\ldots,T-10,…,T−1. The goal also imposes l≤Tl\le Tl≤T, which the printed loop leaves implicit, and uses a closed walk for rk,ur_{k,u}rk,u​ because that is what the length-kkk graph calculation computes. It does not assume distinct walk costs. The condition T>n2T>n^2T>n2 is retained from the paper even though related identities may hold in other ranges. Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1987), pp. 444, 447

Theorem 5's NC membership, processor and parallel-time bounds, the membership-in-P discussion, log-space reductions, PSPACE membership, and Corollaries 1–2 are outside this mission. Mathlib does not supply the PRAM and complexity-class framework those claims require. The target is the exact cost identity behind the algorithm. Defining the optimum directly as the right-hand minimum, restricting policies to stationary policies, or allowing an empty policy class would trivialize or change it. Contributions proving the milestones, the goal, or reusable walk and cycle facts are welcome.

Selected references

  • Christos H. Papadimitriou and John N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(3), 441–450, 1987. DOI: 10.1287/moor.12.3.441
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Poisson Approximation for Dependent Trials 1: For φ-Mixing Bernoulli Trials, |Eh(W) − 𝒫_λh| ≤ 6 min(λ^{−1/2}, 1)[Var W − λ + 2(2m+1)Σp_i² + 4(λ+1)nφ(m+1)]Research Paper

Motivation

A sum of many rare events is approximately Poisson. For independent Bernoulli trials this is the classical law of small numbers, and its quantitative form goes back to Prohorov (1953) and Le Cam (1960): if X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are independent with P(Xi=1)=piP(X_i=1)=p_iP(Xi​=1)=pi​, then the law of W=∑iXiW=\sum_i X_iW=∑i​Xi​ is close to the Poisson law with mean λ=∑ipi\lambda=\sum_i p_iλ=∑i​pi​, with an error controlled by ∑ipi2\sum_i p_i^2∑i​pi2​. Many applications need the same conclusion for dependent trials: runs and clusters in sequences, exceedances of a stationary time series, matches in DNA sequences, extremes of mixing processes.

Louis H. Y. Chen's 1975 paper adapted Charles Stein's method for normal approximation (1970, published 1972) to the Poisson case and obtained explicit error bounds for sums of dependent Bernoulli trials under mixing and mmm-dependence. The technique, now called the Stein–Chen method, became the standard tool for Poisson approximation, through Arratia, Goldstein and Gordon (1989) and Barbour, Holst and Janson, Poisson Approximation (1992).

Timeline:

  • 1953–1960. Prohorov and Le Cam bound the error of the Poisson approximation for independent trials.
  • 1964. Kerstan extends Le Cam's bounds to independent nonnegative integer-valued variables.
  • 1970. Stein introduces his method for normal approximation of dependent sums (Berkeley Symposium, proceedings 1972).
  • 1975. Chen proves Poisson approximation bounds for φ\varphiφ-mixing and mmm-dependent trials (this mission).
  • 1989–1992. Arratia–Goldstein–Gordon and Barbour–Holst–Janson give local-dependence and total-variation versions.

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ Bernoulli random variables, possibly dependent, with success probabilities pi=P(Xi=1)p_i=P(X_i=1)pi​=P(Xi​=1). Put

W=∑i=1nXi,λ=∑i=1npi.W=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i,\qquad \lambda=\sum_{i=1}^n p_i .W=i=1∑n​Xi​,λ=i=1∑n​pi​.

For a real function hhh on the nonnegative integers, the Poisson expectation of hhh is

Pλh=e−λ∑k=0∞h(k)λkk!,\mathcal P_\lambda h=e^{-\lambda}\sum_{k=0}^\infty h(k)\frac{\lambda^k}{k!},Pλ​h=e−λk=0∑∞​h(k)k!λk​,

the mean of hhh under the Poisson distribution with parameter λ\lambdaλ. The quantity to be bounded is ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣ for all hhh with ∣h∣≤1|h|\le1∣h∣≤1; its supremum over such hhh is twice the total variation distance between the law of WWW and the Poisson law.

Dependence is measured by Ibragimov's mixing condition. Write Ma,b\mathcal M_{a,b}Ma,b​ for the σ\sigmaσ-algebra generated by Xa,…,XbX_a,\dots,X_bXa​,…,Xb​ and Ma,∞\mathcal M_{a,\infty}Ma,∞​ for that generated by Xa,Xa+1,…X_a,X_{a+1},\dotsXa​,Xa+1​,…. The sequence satisfies (4.1) with a nonincreasing sequence φ(k)↓0\varphi(k)\downarrow0φ(k)↓0 if, for all j,k≥1j,k\ge1j,k≥1 and every event B∈Mj+k,∞B\in\mathcal M_{j+k,\infty}B∈Mj+k,∞​,

∣P(B∣M1j)−P(B)∣≤φ(k)almost surely.\bigl|P(B\mid\mathcal M_{1j})-P(B)\bigr|\le\varphi(k)\quad\text{almost surely}.​P(B∣M1j​)−P(B)​≤φ(k)almost surely.

Thus φ(k)\varphi(k)φ(k) bounds how much knowledge of the first jjj trials can change the probability of an event determined by trials at distance at least kkk. A sequence is mmm-dependent if (X1,…,Xr)(X_1,\dots,X_r)(X1​,…,Xr​) and (Xr+k,Xr+k+1,… )(X_{r+k},X_{r+k+1},\dots)(Xr+k​,Xr+k+1​,…) are independent whenever k>mk>mk>m; then (4.1) holds with φ(k)=0\varphi(k)=0φ(k)=0 for k>mk>mk>m, and independent trials are the case m=0m=0m=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 541)

For every m=0,1,2,…m=0,1,2,\dotsm=0,1,2,… and every hhh with ∣h∣≤1|h|\le1∣h∣≤1,

∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤6min⁡(λ−1/2,1)[Var⁡(W)−λ+2(2m+1)∑i=1npi2+4(λ+1) n φ(m+1)].\bigl|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h\bigr|\le6\min(\lambda^{-1/2},1)\Bigl[\operatorname{Var}(W)-\lambda+2(2m+1)\sum_{i=1}^np_i^2+4(\lambda+1)\,n\,\varphi(m+1)\Bigr].​Eh(W)−Pλ​h​≤6min(λ−1/2,1)[Var(W)−λ+2(2m+1)i=1∑n​pi2​+4(λ+1)nφ(m+1)].

The parameter mmm is free: it trades the local term 2(2m+1)∑pi22(2m+1)\sum p_i^22(2m+1)∑pi2​ against the mixing term nφ(m+1)n\varphi(m+1)nφ(m+1).

Consequences

  • Theorem 4.3, (4.20). For mmm-dependent trials the mixing term vanishes:
∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤6min⁡(λ−1/2,1)[∑∑i≠jCov⁡(Xi,Xj)+(4m+1)∑i=1npi2].\bigl|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h\bigr|\le6\min(\lambda^{-1/2},1)\Bigl[\sum\sum_{i\ne j}\operatorname{Cov}(X_i,X_j)+(4m+1)\sum_{i=1}^np_i^2\Bigr].​Eh(W)−Pλ​h​≤6min(λ−1/2,1)[∑i=j∑​Cov(Xi​,Xj​)+(4m+1)i=1∑n​pi2​].
  • Corollary 4.1 (Le Cam), (4.22). For independent trials, ∣Eh(W)−Pλh∣≤6min⁡(λ−1/2,1)∑ipi2|Eh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda h|\le6\min(\lambda^{-1/2},1)\sum_ip_i^2∣Eh(W)−Pλ​h∣≤6min(λ−1/2,1)∑i​pi2​.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof:

  1. the basic identity (2.2) for E[Wf(W)−λf(W+1)]E[Wf(W)-\lambda f(W+1)]E[Wf(W)−λf(W+1)], valid for any dependence;
  2. the solution SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h of the Stein equation (2.3)–(2.5), and the resulting representation (2.6) of Eh(W)−PλhEh(W)-\mathcal P_\lambda hEh(W)−Pλ​h;
  3. the bounds on SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h and ΔSλh\Delta S_\lambda hΔSλ​h (Lemmas 3.1–3.4);
  4. the covariance inequalities under mixing (Lemmas 4.1–4.3, 4.6);
  5. the variance identity (4.7), the bound (4.8), the inequality (4.10) and Lemma 4.5.

Significance

The theorem bounds the distance to the Poisson law by quantities a user can compute or estimate: the variance of WWW, the pip_ipi​, and the mixing rate. When the trials are weakly dependent and individually rare, Var⁡(W)≈λ\operatorname{Var}(W)\approx\lambdaVar(W)≈λ, ∑pi2\sum p_i^2∑pi2​ is small, and the bound is small. It recovers Le Cam's independent-case bound up to the constant and extends it to mmm-dependent and φ\varphiφ-mixing sequences. The expansion (2.6) and the bounds on the Stein solution in §3 are reused throughout the later literature on the Stein–Chen method.

The results of this paper are proved on paper; none of them is formalized in a proof assistant. Mathlib has the Poisson distribution, conditional expectation, independence and regular conditional distributions, but no Stein–Chen identity, no bounds on the Stein solution, and no covariance inequality for φ\varphiφ-mixing sequences. This mission produces all three, and the companion missions of this series (Theorem 4.2, an order-λ−1\lambda^{-1}λ−1 bound, and Theorem 5.1, a second-order refinement for independent trials) rely on the same objects.

Difficulty

The identities (2.2), (2.6) and (4.7) are finite manipulations, and the bounds of §3 on SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h are elementary real analysis. The main difficulty is the transfer of the mixing condition from events to functions. Condition (4.1) bounds conditional probabilities of single events almost surely, with a null set that depends on the event. Lemma 4.2 needs a bound on EYf(Y,Z)−EYf(Y,Z′)E^Yf(Y,Z)-E^Yf(Y,Z')EYf(Y,Z)−EYf(Y,Z′) for an arbitrary bounded function of a past vector YYY and a future vector ZZZ; this requires a regular conditional distribution of ZZZ given YYY and one null set that works for all events at once (Lemma 4.1). That step uses that Rs\mathbb R^sRs is a standard Borel space, and it fails for an argument that handles one event at a time. Lemma 4.3 then needs care with the independent copy Z′Z'Z′ and with the three-block decomposition.

Formalization scope

All objects are defined in PoissonDepTrials.MixSqrt.Setting. The conventions are:

  • The trials are a sequence X:N→Ω→NX:\mathbb N\to\Omega\to\mathbb NX:N→Ω→N, measurable, with values in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} almost surely, and identically zero at index 000 and at indices above nnn. The zero padding is the paper's own convention (p. 535), and it changes no σ\sigmaσ-algebra.
  • pip_ipi​ is defined as P(Xi=1)P(X_i=1)P(Xi​=1), not taken as a parameter.
  • ∥h∥\|h\|∥h∥ is replaced by an arbitrary bound MMM with ∣h∣≤M|h|\le M∣h∣≤M. ∥Sλh∥\|S_\lambda h\|∥Sλ​h∥ is taken over w≥1w\ge1w≥1, the domain of SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h.
  • P(B∣M1j)P(B\mid\mathcal M_{1j})P(B∣M1j​) is the conditional expectation of the indicator of BBB. Measurability of every XiX_iXi​ is assumed wherever (4.1) is used.
  • mmm-dependence is stated for the tail σ\sigmaσ-algebra Mr+k,∞\mathcal M_{r+k,\infty}Mr+k,∞​, which is equivalent to the paper's finite blocks.
  • EYf(Y,Z′)E^Yf(Y,Z')EYf(Y,Z′), for Z′Z'Z′ an independent copy of ZZZ, is written as ∫f(Y,z) dPZ(z)\int f(Y,z)\,dP_Z(z)∫f(Y,z)dPZ​(z), without enlarging Ω\OmegaΩ.
  • In Lemma 4.1, "Borel space" is StandardBorelSpace.

Added hypotheses: λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 in the identity (2.6) and in Lemmas 3.3, 3.4 and (2.5), because SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h divides by λw\lambda^wλw; m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and a≥1a\ge1a≥1 in Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3, because (4.1) concerns lags ≥1\ge1≥1 of a sequence starting at X1X_1X1​. The goal has no hypothesis λ>0\lambda>0λ>0: at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 every trial vanishes almost surely and both sides are zero.

The goal does not mention SλhS_\lambda hSλ​h, V(i)V^{(i)}V(i) or YijY_{ij}Yij​; it is stated only in terms of WWW, λ\lambdaλ, the pip_ipi​, Var⁡(W)\operatorname{Var}(W)Var(W), φ\varphiφ, mmm and hhh. The mixing condition is required to hold with a nonincreasing φ\varphiφ tending to 000, so it cannot be satisfied vacuously.

Reusable infrastructure includes the Stein–Chen identity (2.2), the bounds on the Stein solution (Lemmas 3.3, 3.4), and the covariance inequalities for φ\varphiφ-mixing sequences (Lemmas 4.2, 4.3), which apply beyond Poisson approximation. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are proofs of the companion results from the goal.

Selected references

  • L. H. Y. Chen, Poisson approximation for dependent trials, Ann. Probab. 3(3):534–545, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996359
  • C. Stein, A bound for the error in the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of dependent random variables, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 2:583–602, 1972. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bsmsp/1200514239
  • L. Le Cam, An approximation theorem for the Poisson binomial distribution, Pacific J. Math. 10(4):1181–1197, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1960.10.1181
  • I. A. Ibragimov, Some limit theorems for stationary processes, Theory Probab. Appl. 7(4):349–382, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1137/1107036
  • R. Arratia, L. Goldstein, L. Gordon, Two moments suffice for Poisson approximations: the Chen–Stein method, Ann. Probab. 17(1):9–25, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176991491
  • A. D. Barbour, L. Holst, S. Janson, Poisson Approximation, Oxford University Press, 1992. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/poisson-approximation-9780198522355
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Bargaining Problem: The Nash Product Maximizer Is the Unique Solution Satisfying Invariance, Symmetry, IIA and Pareto EfficiencyResearch Paper

Motivation

Two parties who can cooperate for mutual benefit must still agree on how to share the benefit. In The Bargaining Problem (Econometrica, 1950) John Nash asked which agreement two rational bargainers of equal skill should reach. His answer is not a model of haggling: it is a list of conditions any reasonable rule should satisfy, together with a proof that exactly one point of the set of feasible agreements is compatible with them. That point maximizes the product of the two parties' utility gains. Known as the Nash bargaining solution, it is the reference point of cooperative bargaining theory. Economics, operations research and networking all use it: in supply contracts, in wage bargaining, and in fair bandwidth allocation, where maximizing a product of gains becomes maximizing a sum of logarithms (proportional fairness).

Timeline:

  • 1944. von Neumann and Morgenstern axiomatize expected utility. A utility is determined up to a positive affine transformation au+bau+bau+b. Nash quotes this on p. 157.
  • 1950. Nash introduces the two-person bargaining problem and the axioms of Pareto efficiency, independence of irrelevant alternatives and symmetry, the solution being invariant under the choice of utility scales. He proves that they force the maximizer of the product u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ (doi:10.2307/1907266).
  • 1953. Nash's Two-Person Cooperative Games adds the threat game that fixes the disagreement point.
  • 1975. Kalai and Smorodinsky replace independence of irrelevant alternatives by monotonicity and obtain a different solution.
  • 1986. Binmore, Rubinstein and Wolinsky show that the Nash solution is the limit of equilibria of alternating-offers bargaining as the time between offers vanishes.

Setting

A bargaining problem is a pair ⟨S,d⟩\langle S,d\rangle⟨S,d⟩. Here S⊆R2S\subseteq\mathbb R^2S⊆R2 is the set of utility pairs u=(u1,u2)u=(u_1,u_2)u=(u1​,u2​) the two players can reach by agreement, including lotteries over agreements. d∈Sd\in Sd∈S is the disagreement point, the utilities of no cooperation. As in the platform goal, SSS is compact and convex, and some s∈Ss\in Ss∈S has s1>d1s_1>d_1s1​>d1​ and s2>d2s_2>d_2s2​>d2​ (both individuals could gain). Write B\mathcal BB for the set of such pairs.

A bargaining solution is a map ggg from B\mathcal BB to R2\mathbb R^2R2. Nash requires:

  • Selection. g(S,d)∈Sg(S,d)\in Sg(S,d)∈S.
  • PAR (Nash's assumption 6). If s,t∈Ss,t\in Ss,t∈S and ttt is strictly better than sss for both players, then g(S,d)≠sg(S,d)\neq sg(S,d)=s.
  • IIA (assumption 7). If S⊆TS\subseteq TS⊆T and g(T,d)∈Sg(T,d)\in Sg(T,d)∈S, then g(S,d)=g(T,d)g(S,d)=g(T,d)g(S,d)=g(T,d).
  • SYM (assumption 8). If d1=d2d_1=d_2d1​=d2​ and SSS is symmetric in the line u1=u2u_1=u_2u1​=u2​, then g(S,d)g(S,d)g(S,d) lies on that line.
  • INV. For L(s)=(α1s1+β1, α2s2+β2)L(s)=(\alpha_1s_1+\beta_1,\ \alpha_2s_2+\beta_2)L(s)=(α1​s1​+β1​, α2​s2​+β2​) with α1,α2>0\alpha_1,\alpha_2>0α1​,α2​>0, g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d))g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d))g(L(S),L(d))=L(g(S,d)).

The paper has no separate INV axiom. It normalizes the disagreement utility to 000 and notes that each utility is then determined only up to a positive multiple (p. 158), so the solution must not depend on that choice.

Formalization targets

Goal

The goal is the platform theorem NashBargaining.nash_bargaining_solution_unique, posed by Nickrobbins95 and currently Open. This mission references it and does not restate it. It asserts that there is a solution fff such that a solution ggg satisfies selection, INV, SYM, IIA and PAR if and only if g=fg=fg=f, and that for every ⟨S,d⟩∈B\langle S,d\rangle\in\mathcal B⟨S,d⟩∈B

f(S,d)≥d,(s1−d1)(s2−d2)<(f1−d1)(f2−d2)  for all s∈S, s≥d, s≠f(S,d).f(S,d)\ge d,\qquad (s_1-d_1)(s_2-d_2)<(f_1-d_1)(f_2-d_2)\ \text{ for all } s\in S,\ s\ge d,\ s\neq f(S,d).f(S,d)≥d,(s1​−d1​)(s2​−d2​)<(f1​−d1​)(f2​−d2​)  for all s∈S, s≥d, s=f(S,d).

Nash's paper proves the necessity half: a solution satisfying the conditions must select the maximizer of the Nash product. The sufficiency half, that the maximizer map satisfies the five conditions, is not argued in the paper. It must be supplied by whoever closes the goal.

Milestones

  1. On a compact convex S∋(0,0)S\ni(0,0)S∋(0,0) that contains a point where both players gain, u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ has exactly one strict maximizer ppp in the closed first quadrant, and p1,p2>0p_1,p_2>0p1​,p2​>0.
  2. Multiplying the utilities by positive constants maps the maximizer to the maximizer, so ppp may be moved to (1,1)(1,1)(1,1).
  3. If SSS is convex and (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) maximizes u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​, then u1+u2≤2u_1+u_2\le2u1​+u2​≤2 on all of SSS.
  4. A compact SSS under that line lies in a square Qh={2−2h≤u1+u2≤2, ∣u1−u2∣≤h}Q_h=\{2-2h\le u_1+u_2\le2,\ |u_1-u_2|\le h\}Qh​={2−2h≤u1​+u2​≤2, ∣u1​−u2​∣≤h}.
  5. (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) is the only point of QhQ_hQh​ on the diagonal that no point of QhQ_hQh​ strictly dominates.
  6. Necessity. Under the five conditions, g(S,d)g(S,d)g(S,d) is the strict maximizer of (s1−d1)(s2−d2)(s_1-d_1)(s_2-d_2)(s1​−d1​)(s2​−d2​) over S∩{s≥d}S\cap\{s\ge d\}S∩{s≥d}.

Two further items formalize the paper's examples: the Bill–Jack barter, whose solution is the vertex (12,5)(12,5)(12,5) reached by exactly one exchange, and trade with money, where the solution gives equal money profits.

Significance

The Nash product characterization is used, mostly without proof, wherever a "fair" split of a cooperative surplus is needed. Examples are generalized Nash bargaining in supply-chain contracting and labour economics, the proportional-fairness criterion in network rate control, and the Nash-in-Nash models of bilateral negotiations. Many papers that build on it apply it to a specific feasible set. They therefore rely on the necessity direction, which is the step that makes the maximizer the unique answer rather than one answer among several.

The result has been proved since 1950, while the referenced Prove2Me goal remains Open. This mission supplies the milestones of Nash's own argument in the encoding of that goal, so that the necessity direction can be assembled from them. Sufficiency remains as separate work. The two examples are small, concrete checks of the solution concept.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary. The difficulty is in keeping the bookkeeping honest across the normalizations. The axioms are stated on the class B\mathcal BB, and a solution is a function on a subtype. Every application of INV, SYM or IIA therefore needs a membership proof for a transformed set: the image of SSS under an affine map, or the enclosing square. It also needs the disagreement point to be carried along. The tempting short cut is to argue "without loss of generality d=0d=0d=0 and p=(1,1)p=(1,1)p=(1,1)". That is exactly what INV licenses, but only after compactness, convexity, the point where both gain, and the location of ddd inside the square have been re-established for each transformed problem. Uniqueness of the maximizer also needs care at the boundary of the quadrant, where the product vanishes.

Formalization scope

Utility pairs are ℝ × ℝ, with u.1 player 1's utility and u.2 player 2's. Milestones 1–5 work at d=(0,0)d=(0,0)d=(0,0), the paper's normalization. Milestone 6 has a general ddd and the goal's encoding. Milestones 1–5 make the following readings explicit:

  • "First quadrant" is the closed quadrant u1≥0, u2≥0u_1\ge0,\ u_2\ge0u1​≥0, u2​≥0.
  • "The point where u1u2u_1u_2u1​u2​ is maximized" is the strict maximizer over SSS in that quadrant, in the goal's form. Milestone 1 also states p1,p2>0p_1,p_2>0p1​,p2​>0, which follows from the point where both gain (p. 158).
  • Milestone 3's hypothesis is the weak maximum s1s2≤1s_1s_2\le1s1​s2​≤1. Its conclusion covers every point of SSS, not only first-quadrant points.
  • The square is the explicit set QhQ_hQh​. Its compactness, convexity and literal symmetry (a,b)∈Qh  ⟺  (b,a)∈Qh(a,b)\in Q_h\iff(b,a)\in Q_h(a,b)∈Qh​⟺(b,a)∈Qh​ are part of milestone 4's conclusion.
  • "Satisfying assumptions (6) and (8)" in the square means lying on u1=u2u_1=u_2u1​=u2​ and being strictly dominated by no point of the square.

Milestone 6's five hypotheses are copied verbatim from the goal, and its conclusion is the goal's last conjunct for the given ggg. It does not restate the goal: it has no existence claim and no "if and only if".

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The point where both gain is a hypothesis wherever uniqueness is claimed; without it a segment on an axis has many maximizers of u1u2=0u_1u_2=0u1​u2​=0. The square is a concrete set, not "some symmetric compact convex set", and the solution's properties are quantified over the goal's class B\mathcal BB, which is nonempty.

The examples need finite sums, convex hulls of finite sets, and extreme points, all in Mathlib. Contributions are welcome on each milestone and on the sufficiency half of the goal.

Related platform work treats other bargaining models. These are Rubinstein's alternating-offers game (RubinsteinBargaining.PEP) and the Chatterjee–Samuelson sealed-offer double auction (ChatterjeeSamuelson). Neither is used here. The von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem behind the normalization is formalized as TheoryOfGames.Utility.utility_existence_uniqueness.

Selected references

  • J. F. Nash, Jr., The Bargaining Problem, Econometrica 18(2), 155–162, 1950. doi:10.2307/1907266
  • J. von Neumann, O. Morgenstern, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, Princeton University Press, 1944.
  • J. F. Nash, Jr., Two-Person Cooperative Games, Econometrica 21(1), 128–140, 1953. doi:10.2307/1906951
  • E. Kalai, M. Smorodinsky, Other Solutions to Nash's Bargaining Problem, Econometrica 43(3), 513–518, 1975. doi:10.2307/1914280
  • K. Binmore, A. Rubinstein, A. Wolinsky, The Nash Bargaining Solution in Economic Modelling, RAND Journal of Economics 17(2), 176–188, 1986. doi:10.2307/2555382
  • M. J. Osborne, A. Rubinstein, Bargaining and Markets, Academic Press, 1990, Theorem 2.3.
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Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 7: Makespan Reduces to Total Completion Time on Identical Machines with Precedence ConstraintsResearch Paper

Motivation

Scheduling jobs on parallel machines under precedence constraints is the core model of project and parallel-processing scheduling: a job may start only after its predecessors have finished. Two criteria dominate the literature, the makespan Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ (when does the last job finish?) and the total completion time ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ (how long do jobs wait on average?). Knowing that one criterion is at least as hard as the other lets a hardness proof for one transfer to the other without a new reduction from a combinatorial problem.

Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan's report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; later in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) collected the complexity status of the standard scheduling problems and stated a set of elementary reductions among them as Theorem 1. Part (l) reduces makespan to total completion time for identical machines with precedence constraints and bounded processing times.

Timeline.

  • 1971–1972: Cook (doi:10.1145/800157.805047) and Karp (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9) introduce NP-completeness and polynomial reducibility.
  • 1975: Ullman (doi:10.1016/S0022-0000(75)80008-0) proves that the makespan problems n∣2∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤2∣Cmax⁡n|2|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le 2|C_{\max}n∣2∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤2∣Cmax​ and n∣m∣I,prec,pj1=1∣Cmax⁡n|m|I,\mathit{prec},p_{j1}=1|C_{\max}n∣m∣I,prec,pj1​=1∣Cmax​ are NP-complete, by reductions from 3-SATISFIABILITY.
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan state Theorem 1(l); their Table III (p. 13) applies it to Ullman's two problems and concludes that the corresponding total completion time problems are NP-complete.

Setting

An instance has nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​, a number m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 of identical machines, a processing time pjp_jpj​ for each job, and a precedence relation <<< on the jobs: Jj<JkJ_j < J_kJj​<Jk​ means that JkJ_kJk​ may start only after JjJ_jJj​ has completed. Each job is one operation, processed without interruption on any one machine. For a constant p∗p_*p∗​, the class n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗n|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​ requires 1≤pj≤p∗1 \le p_j \le p_*1≤pj​≤p∗​ for every job and an acyclic precedence relation.

A schedule assigns to every job a machine and a starting time Bj∈NB_j \in \mathbb NBj​∈N; the completion time is Cj=Bj+pjC_j = B_j + p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​. It is feasible if two jobs on the same machine never overlap and Jj<JkJ_j < J_kJj​<Jk​ implies Cj≤BkC_j \le B_kCj​≤Bk​.

Following the paper, each optimization problem is replaced by its recognition version. Problem P′P'P′ asks, for an instance and a threshold y′y'y′, whether some feasible schedule has Cmax⁡=max⁡jCj≤y′C_{\max} = \max_j C_j \le y'Cmax​=maxj​Cj​≤y′. Problem PPP asks, for an instance of the same class and a threshold yyy, whether some feasible schedule has ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y (all weights wj=1w_j = 1wj​=1).

P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, written P′∝PP' \propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1(l)

For every constant p∗≥1p_* \ge 1p∗​≥1,

n′∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗∣Cmax⁡  ∝  n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1≤p∗,wj=1∣∑wjCj.n'|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*|C_{\max} \;\propto\; n|m|I,\mathit{prec},1\le p_{j1}\le p_*,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j .n′∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​∣Cmax​∝n∣m∣I,prec,1≤pj1​≤p∗​,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​.

Milestones

  1. A trivial upper bound. Every instance of P′P'P′ with n′n'n′ jobs has a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤n′p∗C_{\max} \le n'p_*Cmax​≤n′p∗​.
  2. The construction and the forward direction. For 0≤y′≤n′p∗0 \le y' \le n'p_*0≤y′≤n′p∗​ let n′′=(n′−1)y′n'' = (n'-1)y'n′′=(n′−1)y′, n=n′+n′′n = n'+n''n=n′+n′′ and y=ny′+12n′′(n′′+1)y = ny' + \tfrac12 n''(n''+1)y=ny′+21​n′′(n′′+1), and add n′′n''n′′ unit-time jobs Jn′+kJ_{n'+k}Jn′+k​, each required to follow every original job and every earlier added job. If P′P'P′ has a schedule with Cmax⁡≤y′C_{\max} \le y'Cmax​≤y′, the new instance has a feasible schedule with ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y.
  3. The backward direction. If every feasible schedule of P′P'P′ has Cmax⁡>y′C_{\max} > y'Cmax​>y′, every feasible schedule of the new instance has ∑jCj>y\sum_j C_j > y∑j​Cj​>y.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1(l) makes the total completion time problem at least as hard as the makespan problem in the same class. Combined with Ullman's NP-completeness results and Theorem 1(b) (reducibility transfers NP-completeness), it shows that minimizing ∑jCj\sum_j C_j∑j​Cj​ on identical machines with precedence constraints is NP-complete, already for two machines with pj∈{1,2}p_j \in \{1, 2\}pj​∈{1,2} and for unit processing times on mmm machines. These are two rows of the paper's Table III.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on one page of a typewritten report; no machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a scheduling model for identical machines with precedence constraints, binary languages for the two recognition problems, and the reduction in Cook's Turing-machine model. The proof's displayed bounds contain a misprinted index range, which the formal statements correct.

Difficulty

The two criteria are not monotonically related: a schedule with a smaller makespan can have a larger total completion time than one with a larger makespan. So the obvious reduction, keeping the instance and asking for ∑jCj≤n′y′\sum_j C_j \le n'y'∑j​Cj​≤n′y′, is not an equivalence: a no-instance of P′P'P′ can have a schedule with small total completion time. The instance has to be changed so that the total completion time is governed by the makespan, and the comparison of the two thresholds must be exact, including the strict inequality on the "no" side, which depends on integral completion times and positive processing times.

The main formal difficulty lies in the reduction itself. A polynomial-time Turing machine must decode the binary instance, check that it belongs to the class (including acyclicity of the precedence relation), compare y′y'y′ with n′p∗n'p_*n′p∗​, and write out an instance with n′′=(n′−1)y′n'' = (n'-1)y'n′′=(n′−1)y′ additional jobs and a quadratic-size precedence matrix. The size of that output is polynomial only because p∗p_*p∗​ is a constant: a version with p∗p_*p∗​ part of the input would make n′′n''n′′ exponential in the input length.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs and machines are indexed from 000 (Fin n, Fin m). Starting times are natural numbers; Section 3 derives all times from processing orders on nonnegative integer data, and both criteria are regular. "Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max} \le yCmax​≤y" is written as "Cj≤yC_j \le yCj​≤y for every jjj".
  • The precedence relation is a Boolean matrix. Its acyclicity and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 are part of the problem class; the paper leaves both implicit, and the claim "any instance has a solution with Cmax⁡≤n′p∗C_{\max} \le n'p_*Cmax​≤n′p∗​" fails without them.
  • p∗p_*p∗​ is a constant of the class and a parameter of both languages, not part of the input. All weights in the target problem equal 111 and are not written.
  • The threshold y=ny′+12n′′(n′′+1)y = ny' + \tfrac12 n''(n''+1)y=ny′+21​n′′(n′′+1) is stated in Q\mathbb QQ exactly as printed in the milestones; it is an integer, and the reduction uses its natural-number value.
  • The paper's displayed bounds n′y′+∑k=n′+1n(y′+k)=yn'y' + \sum_{k=n'+1}^{n}(y'+k) = yn′y′+∑k=n′+1n​(y′+k)=y and y′+∑k=n′+1n(y′+1+k)=yy' + \sum_{k=n'+1}^{n}(y'+1+k) = yy′+∑k=n′+1n​(y′+1+k)=y have a misprinted index range (the sums must run over k=1,…,n′′k = 1,\dots,n''k=1,…,n′′). The milestones state the end-to-end bounds ∑jCj≤y\sum_j C_j \le y∑j​Cj​≤y and ∑jCj>y\sum_j C_j > y∑j​Cj​>y.
  • "Cmax⁡>y′C_{\max} > y'Cmax​>y′" in the backward direction is read as the negation of the forward hypothesis: no feasible schedule of P′P'P′ has Cmax⁡≤y′C_{\max} \le y'Cmax​≤y′.
  • "Reducible" is Cook's polynomial-time many-one reducibility from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs; numbers are written in binary with the alphabet and code encNats of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's encoding). The unit-time model ResourceScheduling.Chain.Model (Błażewicz, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan) has the same feasibility conditions but unit processing times and real start times, so the model here is defined anew.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal asserts a polynomial-time computable map, not the bare equivalence, and codes of instances outside the class are excluded from both languages, so the reduction cannot exploit malformed inputs.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of the three milestones, a Turing-machine library for arithmetic on binary codes (reusable across this series), and a proof of the goal from the milestones.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; published in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • J. D. Ullman, NP-complete scheduling problems, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 10 (1975) 384–393. doi:10.1016/S0022-0000(75)80008-0
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. doi:10.1145/800157.805047
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
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Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 6: DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH Reduces to No-Wait Flow Shop Makespan and Total Completion TimeResearch Paper

Motivation

In a no-wait flow shop every job passes through the machines M1,…,MmM_1,\dots,M_mM1​,…,Mm​ in the same order, and once it has started it may never wait between two machines. The constraint comes from processes in which the material changes state if it is left standing, such as hot metal rolling, chemical and food processing, and some pharmaceutical lines; see the survey of Hall and Sriskandarajah (doi:10.1287/opre.44.3.510). The question of how hard it is to schedule such a shop well is the question this mission formalizes.

Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan settled it for the case in which the number of machines is part of the input. In their report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977, doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X), Theorem 5 reduces DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH to the no-wait flow shop. Both minimizing the makespan Cmax⁡C_{\max}Cmax​ and minimizing the total completion time ∑Cj\sum C_j∑Cj​ are thereby NP-complete.

Timeline.

  • 1964: Gilmore and Gomory solve the two-machine no-wait flow shop with makespan in polynomial time (doi:10.1287/opre.12.5.655).
  • 1972: Wismer (doi:10.1287/opre.20.3.689) and Reddi and Ramamoorthy (doi:10.1057/jors.1972.52) show that no-wait makespan minimization is a travelling-salesman problem with arc weights computed from the processing times.
  • 1972: Karp proves DIRECTED HAMILTON CIRCUIT NP-complete (doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan reduce DIRECTED HAMILTON CIRCUIT to DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH (their Theorem 2(d)), and DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH to n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax⁡n|m|F,\textit{no wait}|C_{\max}n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax​ and to n∣m∣F,no wait,wj=1∣∑wjCjn|m|F,\textit{no wait},w_j=1|\sum w_jC_jn∣m∣F,no wait,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​ (Theorem 5).
  • 1984: Röck shows that the problem stays NP-hard for three machines (doi:10.1145/62.65).

Setting

There are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and mmm machines. Job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ needs processing time pℓi∈Np_{\ell i}\in\mathbb Npℓi​∈N on machine MiM_iMi​. Write

qℓi=∑r=1ipℓr,qℓ0=0,q_{\ell i}=\sum_{r=1}^{i}p_{\ell r},\qquad q_{\ell 0}=0,qℓi​=r=1∑i​pℓr​,qℓ0​=0,

for the time job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ spends on its first iii machines. Because a job never waits, a schedule is determined by the start times Bℓ∈NB_\ell\in\mathbb NBℓ​∈N. The operation of JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ on MiM_iMi​ occupies [Bℓ+qℓ,i−1, Bℓ+qℓi)[B_\ell+q_{\ell,i-1},\,B_\ell+q_{\ell i})[Bℓ​+qℓ,i−1​,Bℓ​+qℓi​), and job JℓJ_\ellJℓ​ completes at Cℓ=Bℓ+qℓmC_\ell=B_\ell+q_{\ell m}Cℓ​=Bℓ​+qℓm​. A schedule is feasible when no two distinct jobs occupy the same machine at the same time. The delay

cjk=max⁡1≤i≤m{qji−qk,i−1}c_{jk}=\max_{1\le i\le m}\{q_{ji}-q_{k,i-1}\}cjk​=1≤i≤mmax​{qji​−qk,i−1​}

is the least gap Bk−BjB_k-B_jBk​−Bj​ that lets JkJ_kJk​ follow JjJ_jJj​ on every machine.

A directed graph G=(V,A)G=(V,A)G=(V,A) on V={0,…,n−1}V=\{0,\dots,n-1\}V={0,…,n−1} has a Hamilton path if its vertices can be ordered σ(0),…,σ(n−1)\sigma(0),\dots,\sigma(n-1)σ(0),…,σ(n−1) with every (σ(i),σ(i+1))∈A(\sigma(i),\sigma(i+1))\in A(σ(i),σ(i+1))∈A.

From GGG the paper builds an instance with nnn jobs and m=n(n−1)+2m=n(n-1)+2m=n(n−1)+2 machines. Each ordered pair (j,k)(j,k)(j,k) of distinct jobs is assigned a middle machine ι(j,k)∈{2,…,m−1}\iota(j,k)\in\{2,\dots,m-1\}ι(j,k)∈{2,…,m−1}, and the partial sums qℓiq_{\ell i}qℓi​ are perturbed from iμi\muiμ by ±λ\pm\lambda±λ or ±(λ+1)\pm(\lambda+1)±(λ+1) on the machines ι(ℓ,⋅)\iota(\ell,\cdot)ι(ℓ,⋅) and just before the machines ι(⋅,ℓ)\iota(\cdot,\ell)ι(⋅,ℓ), depending on whether the pair is an arc. The parameters satisfy λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1 and μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 5)

DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax⁡andDIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait,wj=1∣∑wjCj,\text{DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH}\ \propto\ n|m|F,\textit{no wait}|C_{\max}\quad\text{and}\quad \text{DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH}\ \propto\ n|m|F,\textit{no wait},w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j,DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait∣Cmax​andDIRECTED HAMILTON PATH ∝ n∣m∣F,no wait,wj​=1∣∑wj​Cj​,

where ∝\propto∝ is polynomial-time many-one reducibility between the binary-coded recognition languages.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Eq. (9): cjkc_{jk}cjk​ is the least gap between BjB_jBj​ and BkB_kBk​ for which JkJ_kJk​ follows JjJ_jJj​ on every machine.
  2. The travelling-salesman reformulation: if all processing times are positive, a feasible schedule with Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y (resp. ∑Cℓ≤y\sum C_\ell\le y∑Cℓ​≤y) exists iff some job order has path length (resp. summed completion times along the path) at most yyy.
  3. An admissible ordering ι\iotaι exists for every n≠2n\ne2n=2.
  4. All processing times of the construction are at least 111.
  5. The delays of the construction: cjk=μ+2λc_{jk}=\mu+2\lambdacjk​=μ+2λ if (j,k)∈A(j,k)\in A(j,k)∈A, and μ+2λ+2\mu+2\lambda+2μ+2λ+2 otherwise.
  6. Theorem 5(a), the equivalence: GGG has a Hamilton path   ⟺  \iff⟺ Cmax⁡≤(n−1)(μ+2λ)+mμC_{\max}\le(n-1)(\mu+2\lambda)+m\muCmax​≤(n−1)(μ+2λ)+mμ.
  7. Theorem 5(b), the equivalence: GGG has a Hamilton path   ⟺  \iff⟺ ∑jCj≤12n(n−1)(μ+2λ)+nmμ\sum_jC_j\le\tfrac12n(n-1)(\mu+2\lambda)+nm\mu∑j​Cj​≤21​n(n−1)(μ+2λ)+nmμ.
  8. Theorem 2(d), off the goal's path: G′G'G′ has a Hamilton circuit iff the graph obtained by splitting a vertex v′v'v′ into v′v'v′ and a new sink v′′v''v′′ has a Hamilton path.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5, together with the NP-completeness of DIRECTED HAMILTON PATH, places both no-wait criteria among the NP-complete problems once mmm is part of the input. The Gilmore–Gomory algorithm for two machines therefore cannot be extended to arbitrary mmm unless P = NP, and heuristics and exact exponential methods for no-wait shops are justified. The reduction also gives a structural fact of independent use: every directed graph can be realized, up to two arc-weight values, as the delay matrix of a no-wait flow shop.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved for fifty years; to our knowledge no machine-checked version exists. This mission produces a checked no-wait flow shop model, a checked travelling-salesman reformulation of it, the correctness of the paper's construction, and a polynomial-time reduction in an explicit Turing-machine model. It also records a gap in the printed proof: the ordering ι\iotaι the paper calls easy to construct does not exist for n=2n=2n=2.

Difficulty

Three steps are not routine.

  1. The passage from schedules to job orders assumes that the order in which jobs start is the order in which they visit every machine. With zero processing times this fails, so the reformulation needs the positivity milestone.
  2. Computing the delays requires a case analysis over all machines and all pairs of perturbations. The property of ι\iotaι is exactly what keeps the "+++" and "−-−" cases from colliding, and the constants λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1, μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3 are tight enough that the comparison must be done carefully.
  3. The goal asks for an actual Turing machine with a polynomial step bound. It has to build ι\iotaι for every n≠2n\ne2n=2 and handle n≤2n\le2n≤2 separately. The equivalences alone do not give this.

Formalization scope

Jobs and machines are 000-based (Fin n, Fin m); cum p ℓ i is the paper's qℓiq_{\ell i}qℓi​, and the machine indices ι(j,k)\iota(j,k)ι(j,k) are the paper's 111-based indices. Start times are natural numbers, and release dates are 000. Section 3 computes times from processing orders on integer data, and every criterion is regular, so real start times would not change the yes-instances. A zero-length operation occupies the empty interval. Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y is stated as Cℓ≤yC_\ell\le yCℓ​≤y for every job. The delays, the partial sums of the construction and its processing times are computed in Z\mathbb ZZ. The instance uses their conversion to N\mathbb NN, which is exact by milestone 4. The threshold of Theorem 5(b) is compared in Q\mathbb QQ, as printed.

The paper's loose phrases are made explicit as follows:

  • "scheduled directly after" means "precedes on every machine";
  • "equivalent to solving the TRAVELLING SALESMAN problem" means the two threshold equivalences of milestone 2, with the ∑Cj\sum C_j∑Cj​ version as the reading of "constructed as in (a)";
  • "such an ordering can easily be constructed" is stated for n≠2n\ne2n=2, the only case in which it is true.

Directed graphs are Boolean adjacency matrices. A graph with 000 or 111 vertices has a Hamilton path, and a one-vertex graph has a Hamilton circuit iff it has a loop.

The goal is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs, with polynomial time measured on Cook's one-tape Turing machines. Instances are coded with the alphabet BSym and binary code encNats of the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann). A graph is coded as nnn followed by its adjacency matrix; a flow-shop instance as nnn, mmm, the matrix (pℓi)(p_{\ell i})(pℓi​) and the threshold yyy.

Stating only the equivalences 6–7 and calling the result "reducible" would drop polynomiality; the goal therefore asserts PolyReducible. The target languages contain exactly the no-wait flow-shop instances, with no waiting allowed, so the reduction cannot land in a looser problem. The parameters λ,μ\lambda,\muλ,μ always carry λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1, μ≥2λ+3\mu\ge2\lambda+3μ≥2λ+3.

Contributions are welcome at every level:

  • the general travelling-salesman reformulation, which is reusable for any no-wait flow-shop result;
  • the combinatorial existence of ι\iotaι;
  • the arithmetic of the construction;
  • Turing-machine infrastructure for computing arithmetic list transformations in polynomial time, which every reduction in this series needs.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. doi:10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. doi:10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • P. C. Gilmore, R. E. Gomory, Sequencing a one state-variable machine: a solvable case of the traveling salesman problem, Operations Research 12 (1964) 655–679. doi:10.1287/opre.12.5.655
  • D. A. Wismer, Solution of the flowshop-scheduling problem with no intermediate queues, Operations Research 20 (1972) 689–697. doi:10.1287/opre.20.3.689
  • S. S. Reddi, C. V. Ramamoorthy, On the flow-shop sequencing problem with no wait in process, Operational Research Quarterly 23 (1972) 323–331. doi:10.1057/jors.1972.52
  • H. Röck, The three-machine no-wait flow shop is NP-complete, Journal of the ACM 31 (1984) 336–345. doi:10.1145/62.65
  • N. G. Hall, C. Sriskandarajah, A survey of machine scheduling problems with blocking and no-wait in process, Operations Research 44 (1996) 510–525. doi:10.1287/opre.44.3.510
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. doi:10.1145/800157.805047
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching 2: No Randomized On-line Algorithm Guarantees an Expected Matching Larger Than n(1 − 1/e) + o(n)Research Paper

Motivation

An online matching algorithm must commit to each assignment when a request arrives, before it sees later requests. This limitation arises whenever waiting for the full instance is impossible: an available resource can be assigned to a current request or saved for an unknown future request. The quality of the assignment is measured by how many requests can be matched. The central question is how much the lack of future information costs, even when an algorithm uses randomness. Karp, U. Vazirani, and V. Vazirani studied this question for bipartite graphs and proved an asymptotic ceiling of 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e for the expected fraction matched by any randomized online rule on graphs with a perfect matching (Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani, 1990).

The paper also analyzes RANKING and gives a matching asymptotic guarantee from below. This mission concerns the separate upper-bound result: the existence of hard instances for every algorithm. The upper bound matters independently of any particular proposed rule. It says that improving an algorithm's decisions cannot remove the worst-case loss due to decisions made before all columns are revealed. Its quantifiers make the adversarial model precise: the graph is selected with knowledge of the algorithm, before that algorithm's random choices are made.

Setting

There are nnn boys, represented by rows, and nnn girls, represented by columns. A bipartite graph G⊆[n]×[n]G\subseteq[n]\times[n]G⊆[n]×[n] records which boy and girl pairs may be matched. The graph is assumed to contain a perfect matching: some bijection between the two sides uses only edges of GGG. This assumption supplies an offline benchmark of nnn matches. Without it, a graph with no edges would make every upper bound on matching size empty of content.

Girls arrive one at a time. On arrival, the algorithm learns the edges incident to that girl, chooses an as-yet-unmatched adjacent boy, or declines to match her. A choice cannot later be changed. The paper labels columns so that they arrive in the order n,n−1,…,1n,n-1,\ldots,1n,n−1,…,1. A deterministic algorithm can base its action on the neighborhoods revealed so far. A randomized algorithm can additionally use internal random choices. Its performance p(A)p(A)p(A) is the minimum, over a graph with a perfect matching and a preselected arrival order, of its expected number of matches; the expectation is over its own randomness (Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani, 1990, p. 352).

The paper's hard family begins with the complete upper-triangular graph TnT_nTn​, where row iii is adjacent to column jjj exactly when i≤ji\le ji≤j. Its columns arrive from largest to smallest. Relabeling the rows by a permutation π\piπ gives an instance TπT_\piTπ​ that still contains a perfect matching. The algorithm RANDOM takes an eligible boy uniformly whenever at least one is available. Write VTn(n,∅)V_{T_n}(n,\varnothing)VTn​​(n,∅) for RANDOM's expected number of matches on TnT_nTn​, beginning with no matched rows (Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani, 1990, p. 357).

Formalization targets

Main theorem

For every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, there is one threshold NNN such that, for every n≥Nn\ge Nn≥N and every randomized online algorithm AAA on nnn rows and columns, a graph GGG with a perfect matching satisfies

EA[∣M(G)∣]≤(1−e−1+ε)n.\mathbb E_A[|M(G)|]\le (1-e^{-1}+\varepsilon)n.EA​[∣M(G)∣]≤(1−e−1+ε)n.

The threshold is uniform over algorithms. The graph may depend on AAA. This is the quantified upper-bound reading of Theorem 2's p(A)≤n(1−1/e)+o(n)p(A)\le n(1-1/e)+o(n)p(A)≤n(1−1/e)+o(n) (Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani, 1990, Theorem 2).

Milestone statements

Lemma 13 identifies the average size produced by any deterministic greedy algorithm on a uniformly permuted TnT_nTn​ with RANDOM's expected size on TnT_nTn​. Lemma 14 bounds the worst-case performance of every randomized algorithm, including non-greedy algorithms, by that value. Lemma 16 identifies the value itself by the two-sided limit

lim⁡n→∞VTn(n,∅)n=1−e−1.\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac{V_{T_n}(n,\varnothing)}{n}=1-e^{-1}.n→∞lim​nVTn​​(n,∅)​=1−e−1.

Together these statements give the finite-instance comparison and the asymptotic value named in the goal (Karp, Vazirani, and Vazirani, 1990, Lemmas 13, 14, 16).

Significance

Theorem 2 limits what any randomized online matching rule can guarantee under the paper's oblivious-adversary performance measure. Since the hard graph always admits a perfect matching, the gap from nnn is caused by the order of information and the required irrevocable decisions. The statement applies to the entire algorithm class, rather than comparing two selected procedures. It therefore provides the ceiling against which the paper's lower guarantee for RANKING is measured.

Formalizing the result requires a reusable description of finite online algorithms, their visible histories, and expected matching size. It also requires a definition of uniform random choice from currently eligible rows with an explicit empty-choice case. The 1990 result is proved in the paper; the statements in this mission are targets for machine-checked proofs, not claims of an existing formal proof. The model can support later statements about other matching rules and hard-input distributions without changing the meaning of an online decision.

Difficulty

For a fixed graph, an algorithm can be designed around the graph's particular perfect matching, so one hard graph cannot simply be announced in advance for all deterministic algorithms. The theorem instead has to bound each randomized algorithm against a graph selected for that algorithm. Even then, checking the triangular graph against one rule does not establish a universal bound: different rules can respond differently to the same revealed neighborhoods. The crucial mathematical obstacle is a comparison across all such rules while preserving the restriction that future columns remain unseen. A further asymptotic step is needed to determine RANDOM's value on the triangular family, including both sides of the o(n)o(n)o(n) claim in Lemma 16.

Formalization scope

Both sides are Fin n. An edge set is a subset of row-column pairs. The published perfect-matching predicate is reused: it asks for a bijection whose every selected pair is an edge. The paper's one-based column order n,…,1n,\ldots,1n,…,1 is represented by zero-based order n−1,…,0n-1,\ldots,0n−1,…,0; arrival number zero is the largest column. A deterministic rule receives only the neighborhoods of columns that have arrived, including the current column. A randomized rule is a probability mass function on the finite set of deterministic rules, allowing arbitrary correlations among its choices. The expected size is a finite sum over that mass function.

RANDOM is represented by the conditional-expectation recursion for uniform choice among eligible rows. If none is eligible, the column remains unmatched and there is no division by zero. For n=0n=0n=0, the matching and RANDOM value are zero; the main theorem is eventual in nnn and Lemma 16's value at zero does not affect the limit. Lemma 16 uses a two-sided limit. The paper's o(n)o(n)o(n) in Theorem 2 is stated as ∀ε>0,∃N,∀n≥N\forall\varepsilon>0,\exists N,\forall n\ge N∀ε>0,∃N,∀n≥N with NNN before the algorithm, so the error is uniform across algorithms. A hard graph must contain a perfect matching; dropping this condition would let the empty graph satisfy the inequality trivially.

Useful contributions include finite probabilistic averaging, the greedy comparison, analysis of the recursive RANDOM value, and a proof joining Lemmas 14 and 16 into the uniform goal. The history and matching-run definitions are reusable for other finite online bipartite matching statements. The two numbered claims inside the paper's proof of Lemma 13 and its later remarks are outside the mission's curated milestone list.

Selected references

  • Richard M. Karp, Umesh V. Vazirani, and Vijay V. Vazirani, An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching, Proceedings of the 22nd Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, pp. 352–358, 1990. DOI: 10.1145/100216.100262.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Wait-and-Judge Scenario Optimization 1: For Convex Programs, Seeing s_N Support Constraints Gives P^N{V(x_N) > ε(s_N)} ≤ γ, the Value of the Variational Problem (10)Research Paper

Motivation

Many decision problems in control, finance and engineering must hold against an uncertain parameter δ\deltaδ whose distribution is unknown, while samples of δ\deltaδ (measurements, historical records, simulations) are available. The scenario approach replaces the uncertain constraint by the constraints of the NNN observed samples and solves the resulting convex program. The open question is then how robust its solution is: with what probability does a new, unseen δ\deltaδ violate it?

The classical answer, due to Calafiore and Campi (doi:10.1007/s10107-003-0499-y, 2005; doi:10.1109/TAC.2006.875041, 2006) and sharpened by Campi and Garatti (doi:10.1137/07069821X, 2008), is an a-priori bound: it depends only on NNN and the dimension ddd, and it is tight for the worst problems. It is conservative for the many problems whose solution is determined by far fewer than ddd samples. Campi and Garatti's wait-and-judge theorem (doi:10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9, Math. Program. 2018) replaces it by an a-posteriori certificate: after solving, count the samples that actually determine the solution and certify the solution at a level that depends on that count.

Timeline:

  • 2005–2006, Calafiore and Campi: a convex scenario program in Rd\mathbb R^dRd has at most ddd support constraints; first sample-size bounds.
  • 2008, Campi and Garatti: the exact bound PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ}≤∑i=0d−1(Ni)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon\}\le\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\epsilon^i(1-\epsilon)^{N-i}PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ}≤∑i=0d−1​(iN​)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i, with equality for fully-supported problems.
  • 2018, Campi and Garatti: the wait-and-judge bound, Theorem 1 below, with the 2008 bound as a corollary.

Setting

The decision variable is x∈Rdx\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. A problem consists of a cost vector c∈Rdc\in\mathbb R^dc∈Rd, a convex domain X⊆Rd\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd, convex constraint sets Xδ⊆Rd\mathcal X_\delta\subseteq\mathbb R^dXδ​⊆Rd indexed by δ\deltaδ in a probability space (Δ,F,P)(\Delta,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Δ,F,P), and convex tie-break functions t1,…,tpt_1,\dots,t_pt1​,…,tp​. Given an i.i.d. sample δ(1),…,δ(N)\delta^{(1)},\dots,\delta^{(N)}δ(1),…,δ(N) with N>dN>dN>d, the scenario program is

min⁡x∈X cTxsubject tox∈⋂i=1NXδ(i).\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\ c^{\mathsf T}x\quad\text{subject to}\quad x\in\bigcap_{i=1}^N\mathcal X_{\delta^{(i)}}.x∈Xmin​ cTxsubject tox∈i=1⋂N​Xδ(i)​.

Ties are broken by minimising t1t_1t1​ among the minimisers, then t2t_2t2​, and so on; the resulting solution is xN∗x^*_NxN∗​.

  • The violation of a point is V(x)=P{δ∈Δ:x∉Xδ}V(x)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta: x\notin\mathcal X_\delta\}V(x)=P{δ∈Δ:x∈/Xδ​}.
  • A constraint is a support constraint if removing it changes the solution; sN∗s^*_NsN∗​ is their number.
  • Assumption 1: for every mmm and every sample of size mmm, the program with those mmm constraints has a unique tie-broken solution.
  • Assumption 2 (non-degeneracy): for every mmm, with probability one, keeping only the support constraints does not change the solution.

The variational problem (10) is: for a function ϵ:{0,…,d}→[0,1]\epsilon:\{0,\dots,d\}\to[0,1]ϵ:{0,…,d}→[0,1],

γ∗=inf⁡ξ∈Cd[0,1]ξ(1)s.t.1k!dkdtkξ(t)≥(Nk)tN−k 1[0,1−ϵ(k))(t),  t∈[0,1], k=0,…,d.\gamma^*=\inf_{\xi\in C^d[0,1]}\xi(1)\quad\text{s.t.}\quad\frac1{k!}\frac{\mathrm d^k}{\mathrm dt^k}\xi(t)\ge\binom Nk t^{N-k}\,\mathbf 1_{[0,1-\epsilon(k))}(t),\ \ t\in[0,1],\ k=0,\dots,d.γ∗=ξ∈Cd[0,1]inf​ξ(1)s.t.k!1​dtkdk​ξ(t)≥(kN​)tN−k1[0,1−ϵ(k))​(t),  t∈[0,1], k=0,…,d.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 10)

For every [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k), under Assumptions 1 and 2,

PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(sN∗)} ≤ γ∗.\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(s^*_N)\}\ \le\ \gamma^*.PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(sN∗​)} ≤ γ∗.

The level ϵ\epsilonϵ is evaluated at the observed number of support constraints. The goal fixes no particular ϵ\epsilonϵ, which keeps it stable under any later choice of levels.

Milestones (the proof of Theorem 1, Sect. 5.1)

  1. sm∗≤ds^*_m\le dsm∗​≤d for every sample (quoted from [7]).
  2. (14): PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(k)∧sN∗=k}=(Nk) PN{A}\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(k)\wedge s^*_N=k\}=\binom Nk\,\mathbb P^N\{A\}PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(k)∧sN∗​=k}=(kN​)PN{A}, where AAA adds "the first kkk constraints are of support".
  3. A=BA=BA=B up to a null set, where BBB concerns the program on the first kkk samples.
  4. (16): PN{A}=∫(ϵ(k),1](1−v)N−k dFk(v)\mathbb P^N\{A\}=\int_{(\epsilon(k),1]}(1-v)^{N-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)PN{A}=∫(ϵ(k),1]​(1−v)N−kdFk​(v), with Fk(v)=Pk{V(xk∗)≤v∧sk∗=k}F_k(v)=\mathbb P^k\{V(x^*_k)\le v\wedge s^*_k=k\}Fk​(v)=Pk{V(xk∗​)≤v∧sk∗​=k}.
  5. (17): PN{V(xN∗)>ϵ(sN∗)}=∑k=0d(Nk)∫(ϵ(k),1](1−v)N−k dFk(v)\mathbb P^N\{V(x^*_N)>\epsilon(s^*_N)\}=\sum_{k=0}^d\binom Nk\int_{(\epsilon(k),1]}(1-v)^{N-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)PN{V(xN∗​)>ϵ(sN∗​)}=∑k=0d​(kN​)∫(ϵ(k),1]​(1−v)N−kdFk​(v).
  6. (18): ∑k=0min⁡{m,d}(mk)∫[0,1](1−v)m−k dFk(v)=1\sum_{k=0}^{\min\{m,d\}}\binom mk\int_{[0,1]}(1-v)^{m-k}\,\mathrm dF_k(v)=1∑k=0min{m,d}​(km​)∫[0,1]​(1−v)m−kdFk​(v)=1 for every mmm.
  7. Weak duality between the truncated moment problem (20) and its dual (21), giving (22).
  8. (23): 1k!dkdtktm=(mk)tm−k\frac1{k!}\frac{\mathrm d^k}{\mathrm dt^k}t^m=\binom mk t^{m-k}k!1​dtkdk​tm=(km​)tm−k for m≥km\ge km≥k, and 000 otherwise.
  9. (24): the infimum of p(1)p(1)p(1) over polynomials feasible for (10) equals γ∗\gamma^*γ∗.

Companions

  • Theorem 2 (p. 11): for β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) and ϵ(k)=1−t(k)\epsilon(k)=1-t(k)ϵ(k)=1−t(k), with t(k)t(k)t(k) the unique root in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) of βN+1∑m=kN(mk)tm−k−(Nk)tN−k=0\frac{\beta}{N+1}\sum_{m=k}^N\binom mk t^{m-k}-\binom Nk t^{N-k}=0N+1β​∑m=kN​(km​)tm−k−(kN​)tN−k=0, the probability is at most β\betaβ.
  • The root lemma of Sect. 5.3, including its sign and divergence claims.
  • γ∗≤∑i<d(Ni)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i\gamma^*\le\sum_{i<d}\binom Ni\epsilon^i(1-\epsilon)^{N-i}γ∗≤∑i<d​(iN​)ϵi(1−ϵ)N−i for constant ϵ\epsilonϵ (Sect. 5.2).
  • Corollary 1, the 2008 bound.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns the number of support constraints, which is observed after solving, into a confidence statement that holds uniformly over all convex problems and all distributions. With Theorem 2's choice of ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k), a user who finds k≪dk\ll dk≪d support constraints obtains a level ϵ(k)\epsilon(k)ϵ(k) comparable to that of a kkk-dimensional problem, which is far below the a-priori level for dimension ddd. The classical bound (2) is recovered as Corollary 1, so Theorem 1 contains the earlier theory.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization produces:

  • a formal account of scenario programs with lexicographic tie-break and of support constraints in the "changes the solution" sense;
  • the exchangeability argument (14) on product measures;
  • the representation (17) of a tail probability through generalized distribution functions;
  • a weak-duality argument for a generalized moment problem. The 2008 bound itself is posed on the platform as an open problem under other hypotheses; Corollary 1 states it under this paper's assumptions.

Difficulty

The obvious approach bounds the probability for each value of sN∗s^*_NsN∗​ separately by a binomial tail, then sums. This fails: the event sN∗=ks^*_N=ksN∗​=k is not known in advance, and summing the individual bounds over kkk loses the uniformity that makes the result useful. The paper instead characterises every convex problem by the (d+1)(d+1)(d+1)-tuple (F0,…,Fd)(F_0,\dots,F_d)(F0​,…,Fd​). It then maximises (17) over all tuples satisfying the infinitely many moment conditions (18), which is a generalized moment problem in d+1d+1d+1 measures, and solves it by duality.

Two steps carry most of the work. One is the almost-sure identity A=BA=BA=B, which depends on the precise interplay of Assumptions 1 and 2 with the tie-break. The other is passing from the polynomial dual problems to the variational problem (10), which needs a density argument in Cd[0,1]C^d[0,1]Cd[0,1]. The bound sN∗≤ds^*_N\le dsN∗​≤d itself is quoted from the earlier literature; it needs a Helly-type argument adapted to the lexicographic tie-break.

Formalization scope

  • Spaces. The decision space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with its Borel σ-algebra, and samples are Fin N → Δ, indexed from 000. P\mathbb PP is a probability measure and PN\mathbb P^NPN is the product measure.
  • Tie-break. The tie-broken solution is the lexicographic minimiser of (cTx,t1(x),…,tp(x))(c^{\mathsf T}x,t_1(x),\dots,t_p(x))(cTx,t1​(x),…,tp​(x)) and depends only on the feasible set, which is what makes the exchangeability step valid. A support constraint is one whose removal changes this solution; this is not the platform's earlier "removal lowers the cost" notion.
  • Assumptions. Assumption 1 is required for every sample, Assumption 2 almost surely.
  • Measurability. The paper takes measurability for granted (footnote 1). Here it is two explicit hypotheses: the relation {(x,δ):x∈Xδ}\{(x,\delta):x\in\mathcal X_\delta\}{(x,δ):x∈Xδ​} is measurable, and every solution map ω↦xm∗(ω)\omega\mapsto x^*_m(\omega)ω↦xm∗​(ω) is measurable. No event is assumed measurable directly.
  • FkF_kFk​. FkF_kFk​ is the finite measure on R\mathbb RR given by the law of V(xk∗)V(x^*_k)V(xk∗​) on the event {sk∗=k}\{s^*_k=k\}{sk∗​=k}; it is not normalised.
  • Problem (10). Cd[0,1]C^d[0,1]Cd[0,1] is ContDiffOn ℝ d on [0,1][0,1][0,1], with derivatives taken within [0,1][0,1][0,1]. γ∗\gamma^*γ∗ is a real infimum over a set that is nonempty (ξ(t)=tN\xi(t)=t^Nξ(t)=tN) and bounded below by 000.
  • Probabilities are compared with real quantities through ENNReal.ofReal.
  • Theorem 2 is stated for every ϵ\epsilonϵ whose values 1−ϵ(k)1-\epsilon(k)1−ϵ(k) are roots of (11) in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), which by its first part is the paper's ϵ\epsilonϵ.
  • Added hypothesis. The constant-ϵ\epsilonϵ companion assumes d≥1d\ge1d≥1: at d=0d=0d=0, ϵ=0\epsilon=0ϵ=0 its inequality is false.

Ruled-out trivializations:

  • The solution is never a free function of the sample.
  • The goal does not mention FkF_kFk​, moments or polynomials.
  • Assumption 1 is not weakened to almost surely.
  • N>dN>dN>d is kept on Theorems 1, 2 and Corollary 1.
  • The indicators keep the paper's open and closed ends: [0,1−ϵ(k))[0,1-\epsilon(k))[0,1−ϵ(k)) in (10), (ϵ(k),1](\epsilon(k),1](ϵ(k),1] in (16)–(21).

Contributions welcome:

  • the support-constraint bound under lexicographic tie-break, which is reusable for any convex scenario result;
  • the exchangeability lemma on Measure.pi;
  • the duality and density lemmas, which are pure analysis.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming 167 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, Uncertain convex programs: randomized solutions and confidence levels, Mathematical Programming 102 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-003-0499-y
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts VI: With a Forecast Update, Buy-Back Terms with w₁ − w₂ + λc₂ = λc₁ Give the Retailer λΩ₁(q₁) and a Lower Period-2 Margin w₂ − c₂ < w₁ − c₁Textbook

Motivation

A newsvendor retailer who may order twice faces a tradeoff. Ordering late lets the retailer use a better demand forecast. Ordering early lets the supplier produce more cheaply, with longer procurement lead times and no overtime labor. Fisher and Raman (1996) document such forecast improvements between ordering epochs in fashion apparel. A decentralized supply chain must balance cheap early production against well-informed late production, and it is not obvious that a simple contract can induce both firms to strike the balance an integrated firm would choose.

This mission formalizes §6.6 of G. P. Cachon's survey chapter Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts (Handbooks in OR & MS, Vol. 11, 2003), read in the author's January 2003 draft. The section builds on Donohue (2000), who studied the same two-mode production problem under forced compliance. The chapter's model lets the supplier operate under voluntary compliance: she may deliver less than the retailer orders, and she may produce more in period 1 than was ordered. The question is whether a buy back contract with one wholesale price per ordering epoch still coordinates the supply chain.

Setting

A demand signal ξ≥0\xi \ge 0ξ≥0 with density ggg and distribution function GGG is observed once before the selling season. Given ξ\xiξ, demand DDD has distribution function F(⋅ ∣ ξ)F(\cdot\,|\,\xi)F(⋅∣ξ), continuous and strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Demand is stochastically increasing in the signal: F(x ∣ ξh)<F(x ∣ ξl)F(x\,|\,\xi_h) < F(x\,|\,\xi_l)F(x∣ξh​)<F(x∣ξl​) for ξh>ξl\xi_h > \xi_lξh​>ξl​. Expected sales are S(q ∣ ξ)=E[min⁡(q,D) ∣ ξ]S(q\,|\,\xi) = E[\min(q,D)\,|\,\xi]S(q∣ξ)=E[min(q,D)∣ξ]. Period 1 is before the signal and period 2 is after it. The retailer's total order is q1q_1q1​ after period 1 and q2≥q1q_2 \ge q_1q2​≥q1​ after period 2. The supplier's unit production cost is cic_ici​ in period iii, with c1<c2<pc_1 < c_2 < pc1​<c2​<p, where ppp is the retail price. Salvage values and goodwill costs are zero.

The supply chain's period-2 objective is

Ω2(q2 ∣ q1,ξ)=pS(q2 ∣ ξ)−c2q2+c2q1,\Omega_2(q_2\,|\,q_1,\xi) = pS(q_2\,|\,\xi) - c_2 q_2 + c_2 q_1 ,Ω2​(q2​∣q1​,ξ)=pS(q2​∣ξ)−c2​q2​+c2​q1​,

and q2(q1,ξ)q_2(q_1,\xi)q2​(q1​,ξ) maximizes it over q2≥q1q_2 \ge q_1q2​≥q1​. The supply chain's expected profit is Ω1(q1)=−c1q1+E[Ω2(q2(q1,ξ) ∣ q1,ξ)]\Omega_1(q_1) = -c_1 q_1 + E[\Omega_2(q_2(q_1,\xi)\,|\,q_1,\xi)]Ω1​(q1​)=−c1​q1​+E[Ω2​(q2​(q1​,ξ)∣q1​,ξ)].

Under the buy back contract {w1,w2,b}\{w_1, w_2, b\}{w1​,w2​,b} the retailer pays wiw_iwi​ per unit ordered in period iii, and the supplier refunds bbb per unsold unit. The retailer's period-2 profit is π2(q2 ∣ q1,ξ)=(p−b)S(q2 ∣ ξ)−(w2−b)q2+w2q1\pi_2(q_2\,|\,q_1,\xi) = (p-b)S(q_2\,|\,\xi) - (w_2-b)q_2 + w_2 q_1π2​(q2​∣q1​,ξ)=(p−b)S(q2​∣ξ)−(w2​−b)q2​+w2​q1​, and his period-1 profit is π1(q1)=−w1q1+E[π2(q2(q1,ξ) ∣ q1,ξ)]\pi_1(q_1) = -w_1 q_1 + E[\pi_2(q_2(q_1,\xi)\,|\,q_1,\xi)]π1​(q1​)=−w1​q1​+E[π2​(q2​(q1​,ξ)∣q1​,ξ)]. The supplier's period-2 profit Π2\Pi_2Π2​ and her period-1 profit Π1(x ∣ q1)\Pi_1(x\,|\,q_1)Π1​(x∣q1​), as functions of the stock xxx she holds, are given in the mission's Profits definition.

Formalization targets

Goal: the buy back contract coordinates

For λ∈[0,1]\lambda \in [0,1]λ∈[0,1] with

p−b=λp,w2−b=λc2,w1−w2+λc2=λc1,p - b = \lambda p,\qquad w_2 - b = \lambda c_2,\qquad w_1 - w_2 + \lambda c_2 = \lambda c_1,p−b=λp,w2​−b=λc2​,w1​−w2​+λc2​=λc1​,

the identities

π2(q2 ∣ q1,ξ)=λ(Ω2(q2 ∣ q1,ξ)−c2q1)+w2q1,π1(q1)=λ Ω1(q1)\pi_2(q_2\,|\,q_1,\xi) = \lambda\big(\Omega_2(q_2\,|\,q_1,\xi) - c_2 q_1\big) + w_2 q_1,\qquad \pi_1(q_1) = \lambda\,\Omega_1(q_1)π2​(q2​∣q1​,ξ)=λ(Ω2​(q2​∣q1​,ξ)−c2​q1​)+w2​q1​,π1​(q1​)=λΩ1​(q1​)

hold, so the supply chain's optima in both periods are the retailer's optima (with equivalence for λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0). In addition,

w2−c2=w1−(λc1+(1−λ)c2)<w1−c1(λ<1).w_2 - c_2 = w_1 - \big(\lambda c_1 + (1-\lambda)c_2\big) < w_1 - c_1 \quad (\lambda < 1).w2​−c2​=w1​−(λc1​+(1−λ)c2​)<w1​−c1​(λ<1).

Milestones

  1. The structure of the period-2 problem, Eqs. (25)–(26): q2(ξ)q_2(\xi)q2​(ξ) solves F(q2(ξ) ∣ ξ)=(p−c2)/pF(q_2(\xi)\,|\,\xi) = (p-c_2)/pF(q2​(ξ)∣ξ)=(p−c2​)/p and increases in ξ\xiξ, and the threshold ξ(q1)\xi(q_1)ξ(q1​) splits the signals into those that trigger a period-2 order and those that do not.
  2. The retailer's period-2 identity (p. 65).
  3. The supplier fills any period-2 order up to q2(q1,ξ)q_2(q_1,\xi)q2​(q1​,ξ), and for λ<1\lambda < 1λ<1 she does not fill a larger one (p. 65).
  4. The retailer's period-1 identity (p. 66).
  5. The first-order condition (27) for q1oq_1^oq1o​.
  6. The supplier's period-2 profit increases in her stock below q1q_1q1​, so she produces at least the period-1 order (p. 66).
  7. The supplier produces exactly the period-1 order (p. 67).
  8. The margin comparison (p. 67).

Significance

The result shows that the buy back contract, which coordinates the single-period newsvendor, extends to a setting with a forecast update and two production modes, even when the supplier is free to under-deliver or to stockpile. Profit can be divided arbitrarily through λ\lambdaλ. Coordination also forces the supplier's margin on expensive late production below her margin on cheap early production, which contradicts the intuition that the better-informed late order should command a premium. Milestone 7 rules out stranded inventory: under the coordinating terms the supplier never stocks more than the retailer ordered in period 1.

These results are established on paper in Cachon's chapter. No machine-checked version is known. The identities are algebraic. The supplier's production result needs differentiation of an expectation over the signal across the moving threshold ξ(x)\xi(x)ξ(x).

Difficulty

The retailer's identities reduce to algebra once the contract terms are substituted, and the margin comparison is one line. The substantive steps are the derivative formulas (27) and ∂Π1(x ∣ q1)/∂x=−c1+c2(1−G(ξ(x)))\partial \Pi_1(x\,|\,q_1)/\partial x = -c_1 + c_2(1 - G(\xi(x)))∂Π1​(x∣q1​)/∂x=−c1​+c2​(1−G(ξ(x))). The obvious move, differentiating inside the expectation term by term, fails because the period-2 optimum max⁡(q1,q2(ξ))\max(q_1, q_2(\xi))max(q1​,q2​(ξ)) has a kink at ξ=ξ(q1)\xi = \xi(q_1)ξ=ξ(q1​). The integrand switches between two regimes, and the switch point moves with q1q_1q1​. The supplier's period-1 profit is not differentiable at x=q1x = q_1x=q1​; only its right derivative is negative at q1oq_1^oq1o​. Turning the page's derivative statements into the global claim that x=q1ox = q_1^ox=q1o​ is her unique optimum needs a monotonicity argument on both sides of q1oq_1^oq1o​.

Formalization scope

The conditional law is a measurable family ξ↦Dξ\xi \mapsto D_\xiξ↦Dξ​ of probability measures on R\mathbb RR supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), each with a finite mean, a continuous distribution function, and a distribution function strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The signal has a measurable density g≥0g \ge 0g≥0 with ∫0∞g=1\int_0^\infty g = 1∫0∞​g=1, and demand has a finite unconditional mean. These standing assumptions follow the chapter's p. 7 newsvendor model, together with the measurability needed for expectations over the signal. 0<c2<p0 < c_2 < p0<c2​<p makes the critical ratio lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). Expected sales reuse the platform definition SupplyChainTheory.expSales (from SupplyChainTheory_contracts).

The optimum q2(q1,ξ)q_2(q_1,\xi)q2​(q1​,ξ) is a hypothesis-carried selection maximizing Ω2\Omega_2Ω2​ over q2≥q1q_2 \ge q_1q2​≥q1​. It is never an arbitrary function: a formalization that let q2(q1,ξ)q_2(q_1,\xi)q2​(q1​,ξ) be unconstrained would make π1=λΩ1\pi_1 = \lambda\Omega_1π1​=λΩ1​ a statement about meaningless orders. The thresholds ξ(q1)\xi(q_1)ξ(q1​) enter as solutions of (26) whose existence is assumed where the page assumes it. Optimal order quantities are taken over q1≥0q_1 \ge 0q1​≥0 and q2≥q1q_2 \ge q_1q2​≥q1​. Derivatives are stated with HasDerivAt (or HasDerivWithinAt for the right derivative at a kink).

Three corrections of the print are disclosed in the item notes:

  • the strict margin inequality fails at λ=1\lambda = 1λ=1;
  • the p. 66 identity for Π2(x,q1,q2,ξ)\Pi_2(x, q_1, q_2, \xi)Π2​(x,q1​,q2​,ξ) is off by the constant (1−λ)c2q1(1-\lambda)c_2q_1(1−λ)c2​q1​;
  • "retailer optimal equals chain optimal" needs λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 in the converse direction.

Contributions are welcome on all milestones. A lemma that differentiates q↦E[max⁡q2≥qΩ2]q \mapsto E[\max_{q_2 \ge q} \Omega_2]q↦E[maxq2​≥q​Ω2​] with a density-driven threshold would be reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in S. Graves and T. de Kok (eds.), Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, Vol. 11: Supply Chain Management, North-Holland, 2003, Ch. 6. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • K. L. Donohue, Efficient Supply Contracts for Fashion Goods with Forecast Updating and Two Production Modes, Management Science 46(11), 1397–1411, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.11.1397.12088
  • M. Fisher and A. Raman, Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales, Operations Research 44(1), 87–99, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.44.1.87
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 3: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Total Weighted TardinessResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing total weighted tardiness on a single machine, written n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​, is one of the basic problems of deterministic scheduling. A job that finishes after its due date is penalized in proportion to its lateness and its weight. Practitioners use this criterion to model penalty clauses and customer priority. In the theory it was a reference problem for branch-and-bound methods and dominance rules throughout the 1960s and 1970s.

Close relatives are easy: with equal weights and a common due date, shortest-processing-time order is optimal. Whether the weighted problem admits a polynomial algorithm was open until the report of Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan in 1975. Their Theorem 4(d) shows that KNAPSACK reduces to it, so the problem is NP-hard. The unweighted case n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ is listed there as open (Section 5) and was settled only later by Du and Leung (1990).

Timeline:

  • 1972: Karp proves KNAPSACK NP-complete (Karp 1972).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Theorem 4(d), reduce KNAPSACK to n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ (journal version: Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977).
  • 1977: Lawler gives a pseudopolynomial algorithm for n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ and shows that n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ is strongly NP-hard (Lawler 1977).
  • 1990: Du and Leung prove n∣1∣∣∑Tjn|1||\sum T_jn∣1∣∣∑Tj​ NP-hard (Du & Leung 1990).

Setting

A KNAPSACK instance consists of positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​ and bbb. It is a yes-instance if some subset S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} satisfies ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b. Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​ and a∗=max⁡j∈Taja_*=\max_{j\in T}a_ja∗​=maxj∈T​aj​.

An instance of n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ consists of nnn jobs. Job jjj has a processing time pjp_jpj​, a weight wjw_jwj​ and a due date djd_jdj​, all nonnegative integers, and every job is available at time 000. A schedule gives each job a start time Bj∈NB_j\in\mathbb NBj​∈N, and no two jobs may overlap on the machine. Job jjj completes at Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​ and has tardiness Tj=max⁡{0,Cj−dj}T_j=\max\{0,C_j-d_j\}Tj​=max{0,Cj​−dj​}. The instance with threshold yyy is a yes-instance if some schedule satisfies ∑jwjTj≤y\sum_jw_jT_j\le y∑j​wj​Tj​≤y. A processing order π=(π(1),…,π(n))\pi=(\pi(1),\dots,\pi(n))π=(π(1),…,π(n)) determines the schedule without idle time, in which Cπ(k)=∑i≤kpπ(i)C_{\pi(k)}=\sum_{i\le k}p_{\pi(i)}Cπ(k)​=∑i≤k​pπ(i)​.

Reducibility (Section 2 of the paper) is polynomial-time many-one reducibility between the recognition versions. A polynomial-time Turing machine must map codes of KNAPSACK instances to codes of scheduling instances so that yes-instances map exactly to yes-instances.

The paper's construction has n=t+t′n=t+t'n=t+t′ jobs: for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T, pj=τ+ajp_j=\tau+a_jpj​=τ+aj​, wj=τ+aj+1w_j=\tau+a_j+1wj​=τ+aj​+1, dj=tτ+bd_j=t\tau+bdj​=tτ+b; for each of the t′t't′ dummy jobs, pj=τp_j=\taupj​=τ, wj=τ+1w_j=\tau+1wj​=τ+1, dj=tτ+bd_j=t\tau+bdj​=tτ+b. The threshold is y=12t′(t′+1)τ(τ+1)+(t′+1)τ(A−b)+t′y=\tfrac12t'(t'+1)\tau(\tau+1)+(t'+1)\tau(A-b)+t'y=21​t′(t′+1)τ(τ+1)+(t′+1)τ(A−b)+t′, with t′=12(t+1)(A−b)+12t(t+1)a∗2t'=\tfrac12(t+1)(A-b)+\tfrac12t(t+1)a_*^2t′=21​(t+1)(A−b)+21​t(t+1)a∗2​ and τ>2t′+A\tau>2t'+Aτ>2t′+A. The proof is phrased in terms of cπ=Cπ(t)−(tτ+b)c_\pi=C_{\pi(t)}-(t\tau+b)cπ​=Cπ(t)​−(tτ+b), the amount by which the ttt-th job of the order misses the common due date.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(d)

KNAPSACK  ∝  n∣1∣∣∑wjTj,\text{KNAPSACK}\;\propto\;n|1||\textstyle\sum w_jT_j,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​,

stated as CookPvsNP.PolyReducible SchedComplexity.OneMachine.knapsackLang wtLangMult. The scheduling side uses the multiplicity encoding of the paper's Remark (p. 23), in which a class of identical jobs is written once together with its cardinality.

The equivalence and its claims

Each milestone is a statement of the paper's proof (pp. 20–21) about the construction above, for every admissible τ\tauτ:

  • removal of idle time: every schedule is matched or improved by the schedule without idle time of some processing order;
  • KNAPSACK has a solution iff some order has Cπ(t)=tτ+bC_{\pi(t)}=t\tau+bCπ(t)​=tτ+b; moreover −b≤cπ≤A−b-b\le c_\pi\le A-b−b≤cπ​≤A−b;
  • identities and bounds (2)–(7) for the tail sums ∑j>tvπ(j)(Cπ(j)−Cπ(t))\sum_{j>t}v_{\pi(j)}(C_{\pi(j)}-C_{\pi(t)})∑j>t​vπ(j)​(Cπ(j)​−Cπ(t)​);
  • claims (A) cπ=0⇒∃π′c_\pi=0\Rightarrow\exists\pi'cπ​=0⇒∃π′ with cπ′=0c_{\pi'}=0cπ′​=0 and ∑wjTj≤y\sum w_jT_j\le y∑wj​Tj​≤y; (B) cπ>0⇒∑wjTj>yc_\pi>0\Rightarrow\sum w_jT_j>ycπ​>0⇒∑wj​Tj​>y; (C) cπ<0⇒∑wjTj>yc_\pi<0\Rightarrow\sum w_jT_j>ycπ​<0⇒∑wj​Tj​>y;
  • the equivalence: KNAPSACK has a solution iff the constructed instance has a schedule with ∑wjTj≤y\sum w_jT_j\le y∑wj​Tj​≤y.

Significance

The theorem places n∣1∣∣∑wjTjn|1||\sum w_jT_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Tj​ among the NP-hard problems, so (unless P = NP) the research on it has to aim at enumerative methods, pseudopolynomial algorithms or approximation, not at an exact polynomial algorithm. Together with the companion reductions of Theorem 4, it drew the boundary between easy and hard single-machine problems that the later classification of Lageweg, Lawler, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan made systematic.

The result is proved in the paper, and Lawler's later strong NP-hardness proof supersedes it. No machine-checked proof is known to exist. A formal proof adds three things. It makes the paper's "it is easily seen" steps and the encoding argument of the Remark explicit. It produces a reusable single-machine tardiness model with processing orders. It also fixes a gap in the printed construction: the printed t′t't′ need not be an integer.

Difficulty

The equivalence is not a local exchange argument. The threshold yyy must separate orders with cπ=0c_\pi=0cπ​=0 from all others, and the objective is a quadratic function of the order. The orders with cπ=0c_\pi=0cπ​=0 can still differ in ∑wjTj\sum w_jT_j∑wj​Tj​ by the cross terms ∑aπ(j)aπ(k)\sum a_{\pi(j)}a_{\pi(k)}∑aπ(j)​aπ(k)​ and by how the late jobs are arranged. The construction therefore needs a slack t′t't′ that absorbs these terms, and a scale τ\tauτ large enough that a nonzero cπc_\picπ​ always costs more than the slack. Keeping exact track of every constant, including t′t't′ and yyy, is where errors creep in.

Polynomiality is a second, separate difficulty. The construction has Θ(t2a∗2+tA)\Theta(t^2a_*^2+tA)Θ(t2a∗2​+tA) jobs, which is exponential in the binary length of the KNAPSACK input. The goal holds only for the encoding of the Remark, and a solver must also produce an explicit polynomial-time Turing machine.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs of the order-based statements are Fin n, numbered from 000; a processing order is Equiv.Perm (Fin n) with π i the paper's π(i+1)\pi(i+1)π(i+1). posCompletion p π k is the paper's Cπ(k)C_{\pi(k)}Cπ(k)​ for the 1-based position kkk.
  • Start times are in N\mathbb NN. Every criterion is regular and the paper determines schedules by processing orders, so integer start times lose nothing. Tardiness and ∑wjTj\sum w_jT_j∑wj​Tj​ are computed in Z\mathbb ZZ; the bounds with halves are stated over R\mathbb RR exactly as printed.
  • Corrected gap: the printed t′=12(t+1)(A−b)+12t(t+1)a∗2t'=\tfrac12(t+1)(A-b)+\tfrac12t(t+1)a_*^2t′=21​(t+1)(A−b)+21​t(t+1)a∗2​ is a half-integer when (t+1)(A−b)(t+1)(A-b)(t+1)(A−b) is odd. The formalization uses its ceiling and computes yyy from the same t′t't′.
  • τ\tauτ is quantified over all integers with τ>2t′+A\tau>2t'+Aτ>2t′+A; the positivity of the aja_jaj​ and 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A are hypotheses, as the paper assumes them.
  • Explicit readings of the paper's loose phrases: "we may assume [no idle time]" becomes a theorem that the schedule without idle time of some order is at least as good as any schedule; "easily seen" becomes the equivalence with Cπ(t)=tτ+bC_{\pi(t)}=t\tau+bCπ(t)​=tτ+b; "for some π\piπ" in (5) and (7) becomes a reordering that keeps the first ttt positions, and so keeps cπc_\picπ​; "we may assume 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" is a hypothesis of the milestones but not of the goal, whose reduction must handle every KNAPSACK instance.
  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published CookPvsNP_defs. Codes use the alphabet BSym and the binary numerals encNats of the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann's encoding). KNAPSACK is restricted to positive integers, so that encoding's subsetSumLang is not reused.
  • The goal must not be weakened to the bare equivalence: polynomial-time computability of the reduction is part of the statement. The one-copy-per-job encoding of the target is ruled out: the paper does not claim polynomiality for it, and the goal uses the multiplicity encoding instead.
  • Welcome contributions: proofs of the claims, a reusable lemma that idle time can be removed for regular criteria, and Turing-machine constructions for arithmetic on binary numerals, which the sibling missions of this series also need.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://ir.cwi.nl/pub/9725 , https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • E. L. Lawler, A "pseudopolynomial" algorithm for sequencing jobs to minimize total tardiness, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 331–342. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70742-8
  • J. Du, J. Y.-T. Leung, Minimizing total tardiness on one machine is NP-hard, Mathematics of Operations Research 15 (1990) 483–495. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.3.483
  • S. Cook, The P versus NP problem, Clay Mathematics Institute problem description, 2000. https://www.claymath.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/pvsnp.pdf
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Discrete GeometryLinear OptimizationNumber Theory+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Integer Programming with a Fixed Number of Variables 1: If B(p,r) ⊂ τK ⊂ B(p,R) with R/r ≤ c₁ and τK Misses the Lattice, Fewer Than 1 + c₁c₂√n Lattice Hyperplanes H + kbₙ Meet B(p,R)Research Paper

Motivation

The integer linear programming feasibility problem asks, for an integer m×nm\times nm×n matrix AAA and b∈Zmb\in\mathbb Z^mb∈Zm, whether some x∈Znx\in\mathbb Z^nx∈Zn satisfies Ax≤bAx\le bAx≤b. It is NP-complete, so no algorithm polynomial in the length of the data is expected. H. W. Lenstra, Jr. (Math. Oper. Res. 8 (1983) 538–548) showed that the picture changes when the number of variables nnn is fixed: the problem is then solvable in polynomial time. The proof is a short argument from the geometry of numbers, and it became the starting point of lattice methods in integer programming, including Kannan's improved algorithm and the later flatness-based branching schemes.

Lenstra's introduction (p. 538) describes the idea as transforming the problem into an equivalent one in which "either the existence of a vector x∈Znx \in \mathbb Z^nx∈Zn satisfying Ax≤bAx \le bAx≤b is obvious; or it is known that the last coordinate of any such xxx belongs to an interval whose length is bounded by a constant only depending on nnn." This mission formalizes the geometric statement behind that dichotomy, §1 of the paper.

Timeline. For n=2n = 2n=2, Hirschberg and Wong and Kannan gave polynomial algorithms in special cases, and Scarf treated the case n=2n=2n=2 completely; the case of general fixed nnn was conjectured by Hirschberg–Wong and Scarf (as recounted on p. 538). Lenstra's paper (received 1981, published 1983) settled the conjecture. Its lattice reduction step uses the algorithm of Lenstra, Lenstra and Lovász (1982). Kannan (1987) later reduced the dependence on nnn to nO(n)n^{O(n)}nO(n).

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean length ∣⋅∣|\cdot|∣⋅∣, and write B(p,z)={x∈Rn:∣x−p∣≤z}B(p,z)=\{x\in\mathbb R^n : |x-p|\le z\}B(p,z)={x∈Rn:∣x−p∣≤z} for the closed ball with centre ppp and radius z>0z>0z>0.

A lattice is L=∑i=1nZbiL=\sum_{i=1}^n \mathbb Z b_iL=∑i=1n​Zbi​ for a basis b1,…,bnb_1,\dots,b_nb1​,…,bn​ of Rn\mathbb R^nRn. Its determinant d(L)=∣det⁡(b1,…,bn)∣d(L)=|\det(b_1,\dots,b_n)|d(L)=∣det(b1​,…,bn​)∣ (the bib_ibi​ as columns) is the volume of the parallelepiped ∑i[0,1) bi\sum_i[0,1)\,b_i∑i​[0,1)bi​ and does not depend on the basis. Hadamard's inequality (6) says d(L)≤∏i∣bi∣d(L)\le\prod_i|b_i|d(L)≤∏i​∣bi​∣. A basis is reduced in Lenstra's sense if, for a constant c2c_2c2​ depending only on nnn,

∏i=1n∣bi∣≤c2⋅d(L).(7)\prod_{i=1}^n |b_i| \le c_2\cdot d(L). \tag{7}i=1∏n​∣bi​∣≤c2​⋅d(L).(7)

Singling out bnb_nbn​, let H=∑i=1n−1RbiH=\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}\mathbb R b_iH=∑i=1n−1​Rbi​ be the hyperplane spanned by the other vectors, L′=∑i=1n−1ZbiL'=\sum_{i=1}^{n-1}\mathbb Z b_iL′=∑i=1n−1​Zbi​ the lattice inside it, and hhh the distance of bnb_nbn​ to HHH. Then L⊂⋃k∈Z(H+kbn)L\subset\bigcup_{k\in\mathbb Z}(H+kb_n)L⊂⋃k∈Z​(H+kbn​): the lattice lies on a family of parallel hyperplanes H+kbnH + kb_nH+kbn​ at successive distance hhh.

In the paper, K={x:Ax≤b}K=\{x : Ax\le b\}K={x:Ax≤b} is bounded with positive volume, and a linear map τ\tauτ makes it "round":

B(p,r)⊂τK⊂B(p,R)(3),R/r≤c1(4),B(p,r)\subset\tau K\subset B(p,R)\quad(3),\qquad R/r\le c_1\quad(4),B(p,r)⊂τK⊂B(p,R)(3),R/r≤c1​(4),

with c1c_1c1​ depending only on nnn. Then K∩Zn=∅K\cap\mathbb Z^n=\emptysetK∩Zn=∅ if and only if τK∩L=∅\tau K\cap L=\emptysetτK∩L=∅ for L=τZnL=\tau\mathbb Z^nL=τZn, a lattice with basis bi=τ(ei)b_i=\tau(e_i)bi​=τ(ei​).

Formalization targets

Goal (§1, p. 541)

Let b1,…,bnb_1,\dots,b_nb1​,…,bn​ be a basis with (7), numbered so that ∣bn∣=max⁡i∣bi∣|b_n|=\max_i|b_i|∣bn​∣=maxi​∣bi​∣, and let τK\tau KτK satisfy (3) and (4). Then

τK∩L≠∅ort−1<c1c2n,\tau K\cap L\neq\emptyset\quad\text{or}\quad t-1<c_1c_2\sqrt n,τK∩L=∅ort−1<c1​c2​n​,

where ttt is the number of hyperplanes H+kbnH+kb_nH+kbn​, k∈Zk\in\mathbb Zk∈Z, that meet B(p,R)B(p,R)B(p,R) (finiteness included).

Milestones, in the order the paper uses them

  1. LEMMA (8), p. 540: every xxx has y∈Ly\in Ly∈L with ∣x−y∣2≤14(∣b1∣2+⋯+∣bn∣2)|x-y|^2\le\frac14(|b_1|^2+\cdots+|b_n|^2)∣x−y∣2≤41​(∣b1​∣2+⋯+∣bn​∣2).
  2. (10), p. 540: if ∣bn∣|b_n|∣bn​∣ is maximal, ∣x−y∣≤12n ∣bn∣|x-y|\le\frac12\sqrt n\,|b_n|∣x−y∣≤21​n​∣bn​∣.
  3. (11), p. 540: d(L)=h⋅d(L′)d(L)=h\cdot d(L')d(L)=h⋅d(L′).
  4. (12), pp. 540–541: under (7), c2−1∣bn∣≤h≤∣bn∣c_2^{-1}|b_n|\le h\le|b_n|c2−1​∣bn​∣≤h≤∣bn​∣.
  5. p. 541: if B(p,r)⊂τKB(p,r)\subset\tau KB(p,r)⊂τK and τK∩L=∅\tau K\cap L=\emptysetτK∩L=∅, then r<12n ∣bn∣r<\frac12\sqrt n\,|b_n|r<21​n​∣bn​∣.
  6. p. 541: if precisely ttt hyperplanes H+kbnH+kb_nH+kbn​ meet B(p,R)B(p,R)B(p,R), then t−1≤2R/ht-1\le 2R/ht−1≤2R/h.

The goal leaves c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​ free, so it remains valid for any reduction algorithm and any rounding procedure; the companion mission (Integer Programming with a Fixed Number of Variables 2) supplies c1=2n3/2c_1 = 2n^{3/2}c1​=2n3/2, and the LLL algorithm supplies c2=2n(n−1)/4c_2=2^{n(n-1)/4}c2​=2n(n−1)/4.

Significance

The result. The goal is the branching step of Lenstra's algorithm. It says that a lattice-point-free convex body that is well rounded is "flat" in the lattice direction dual to HHH: only boundedly many lattice hyperplanes meet it. The search for a lattice point in dimension nnn therefore reduces to fewer than 1+c1c2n1+c_1c_2\sqrt n1+c1​c2​n​ searches in dimension n−1n-1n−1, which with nnn fixed gives polynomial running time. Sharper forms of the same dichotomy, such as Kannan's bounds, are the basis of later lattice-based integer programming algorithms.

Formalizing it. The results are classical and proved on paper; to our knowledge none of the statements of §1 is machine-checked. Hadamard's inequality (6) is in Mathlib (Orientation.abs_volumeForm_apply_le). The published platform theorem KannanLattice.Core.exists_lattice_point_near_projection (Kannan 1987, Proposition 4.2) proves a stronger form of (8) and (10), with Gram–Schmidt lengths in place of ∣bi∣|b_i|∣bi​∣; for L=ZnL=\mathbb Z^nL=Zn, (10) is the published QFS.exists_lattice_mem_closedBall. What remains is the "base times height" identity (11) relating a full-rank determinant to the distance of a vector from a hyperplane, the spacing bound (12), the count of hyperplanes meeting a ball, and their assembly. This is one of the two geometric ingredients of Lenstra's polynomial algorithm; the algorithm itself and its running time are not formalized.

Difficulty

The argument is short on paper, and each step is "clear" there. The work lies in connecting three descriptions of the same geometry that Mathlib keeps apart: the determinant of a coordinate matrix (d(L)d(L)d(L)), the metric distance of a point to a subspace (hhh), and the (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-dimensional volume of L′L'L′. Identity (11) needs exactly this bridge, and (12) needs Hadamard's inequality for the lower-dimensional lattice L′L'L′ inside a hyperplane of Rn\mathbb R^nRn, not for a full-rank matrix. Bounding the number of hyperplanes meeting a ball needs the normal direction of HHH and the fact that the hyperplanes are hhh apart along it. A tempting shortcut is to define hhh as the length of the last Gram–Schmidt vector and d(L)d(L)d(L) as the product of Gram–Schmidt lengths: that turns (11) into a tautology and is ruled out below.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), so norms are Euclidean and balls round; B(p,z)B(p,z)B(p,z) is Metric.closedBall p z with z>0z>0z>0 as a hypothesis where the paper writes a ball.
  • Where bnb_nbn​ is singled out, n=k+1n=k+1n=k+1, the basis is b : Fin (k+1) → ℝⁿ, bnb_nbn​ = b (Fin.last k) and b1,…,bn−1b_1,\dots,b_{n-1}b1​,…,bn−1​ = b ∘ Fin.castSucc. "Basis for LLL" is linear independence of the nnn vectors over R\mathbb RR, and LLL is the published KannanLattice.Core.lattice b, the Z\mathbb ZZ-span.
  • d(L)d(L)d(L) is the paper's definition, ∣det⁡∣|\det|∣det∣ of the column matrix (latDet). hhh is Metric.infDist from bnb_nbn​ to the span HHH. d(L′)d(L')d(L′), for which the paper writes no formula, is the published KannanLattice.Core.latticeDet (the product of Gram–Schmidt lengths of b1,…,bn−1b_1,\dots,b_{n-1}b1​,…,bn−1​, the (n−1)(n-1)(n−1)-volume of their parallelepiped).
  • The hyperplanes H+kbnH+kb_nH+kbn​ meeting B(p,R)B(p,R)B(p,R) are indexed by the set of integers hitIndices b p R; ttt is its cardinality, its finiteness is part of every conclusion (the cardinality of an infinite set is 000 in Lean), and t−1t-1t−1 is computed in R\mathbb RR.
  • The constants "only depending on nnn", c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​, are arbitrary real numbers. The reducedness (7) is a hypothesis, and so is the maximality ∣bi∣≤∣bn∣|b_i|\le|b_n|∣bi​∣≤∣bn​∣, which enters (10), the radius bound and the goal only.
  • τK\tau KτK is an arbitrary set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn satisfying (3); §1 never uses that KKK is a polyhedron or the map τ\tauτ, and every lattice is τZn\tau\mathbb Z^nτZn for τ(ei)=bi\tau(e_i)=b_iτ(ei​)=bi​. The paper's "for some p∈τKp\in\tau Kp∈τK" follows from (3).
  • The identity (11) is stated without (7), which the paper assumes in the surrounding sentence but does not use.
  • Ruled out: defining d(L)d(L)d(L) or hhh through Gram–Schmidt lengths (which makes (11) bookkeeping), dropping finiteness of the hyperplane count, and replacing the dichotomy "some lattice point lies in τK\tau KτK" by a statement about one computed lattice point.

Welcome contributions: the bridge between Matrix.det of a basis and products of Gram–Schmidt lengths (reusable for any lattice development), Hadamard's inequality for a family of fewer than nnn vectors, and the count of lattice hyperplanes meeting a ball.

Selected references

  • H. W. Lenstra, Jr., Integer Programming with a Fixed Number of Variables, Mathematics of Operations Research 8(4) (1983) 538–548. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.8.4.538
  • A. K. Lenstra, H. W. Lenstra, Jr., L. Lovász, Factoring polynomials with rational coefficients, Mathematische Annalen 261 (1982) 515–534. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01457454
  • R. Kannan, Minkowski's convex body theorem and integer programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(3) (1987) 415–440. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.3.415
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts VII: In the Single-Location Base-Stock Model the Transfers t_I = (1 − λ)h_r, t_B = β_r − λβ Make the Retailer's Cost λc(s_r)Textbook

Motivation

A retailer can keep too little inventory even when its own stocking decision is optimal. In the single-location model of Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts (2003), the supplier suffers a cost when the retailer has backorders, but the retailer does not bear that part of the cost. The supplier and retailer therefore prefer different base-stock levels. Section 6.7 asks whether payments tied to expected inventory and backorders can make the retailer choose the level that minimizes their combined cost. The result also describes how the contract divides that cost between the firms.

The model concerns a continuing operation with repeated replenishment opportunities and backordered demand. A base-stock policy keeps the retailer's inventory position at a chosen level by replacing units as demand occurs. Cachon reduces the cost calculation for such a policy to the distribution of demand over one replenishment lead time. That reduction allows the coordination question to be stated with one real stock-level decision rather than a full inventory trajectory. The chapter presents this model as a building block for its two-location system in §6.8 Cachon (2003).

Setting

Let DrD_rDr​ denote lead-time demand, the amount demanded while the retailer waits for replenishment. It is nonnegative and has a finite mean μr=E[Dr]\mu_r=\mathbb E[D_r]μr​=E[Dr​], distribution function FrF_rFr​, and density frf_rfr​. At inventory level s∈Rs\in\mathbb Rs∈R, expected inventory is Ir(s)=E[(s−Dr)+]I_r(s)=\mathbb E[(s-D_r)^+]Ir​(s)=E[(s−Dr​)+] and expected backorders are Br(s)=E[(Dr−s)+]B_r(s)=\mathbb E[(D_r-s)^+]Br​(s)=E[(Dr​−s)+], where x+=max⁡(x,0)x^+=\max(x,0)x+=max(x,0). The section assumes Fr(0)=0F_r(0)=0Fr​(0)=0 and a strictly increasing differentiable FrF_rFr​ on nonnegative levels. These assumptions place the optimum above zero.

The retailer pays holding cost hrIr(s)h_r I_r(s)hr​Ir​(s) and its own backorder cost βrBr(s)\beta_r B_r(s)βr​Br​(s). The supplier pays a further backorder cost βsBr(s)\beta_s B_r(s)βs​Br​(s). All three cost rates are positive. Thus cr(s)=hrIr(s)+βrBr(s)c_r(s)=h_r I_r(s)+\beta_r B_r(s)cr​(s)=hr​Ir​(s)+βr​Br​(s) and cs(s)=βsBr(s)c_s(s)=\beta_s B_r(s)cs​(s)=βs​Br​(s) are the firms' costs, while c(s)=cr(s)+cs(s)c(s)=c_r(s)+c_s(s)c(s)=cr​(s)+cs​(s) is the channel cost. Write β=βr+βs\beta=\beta_r+\beta_sβ=βr​+βs​. Because demand is backordered rather than lost, the section treats the sales rate as constant across the stock decisions and compares costs alone Cachon (2003), §6.7.1.

The proposed contract pays the retailer tIIr(s)+tBBr(s)t_I I_r(s)+t_B B_r(s)tI​Ir​(s)+tB​Br​(s) from the supplier, where tIt_ItI​ and tBt_BtB​ are transfer rates. A positive rate is a subsidy; a negative rate charges the retailer. For a parameter λ∈(0,1]\lambda\in(0,1]λ∈(0,1], the contract sets tI=(1−λ)hrt_I=(1-\lambda)h_rtI​=(1−λ)hr​ and tB=βr−λβt_B=\beta_r-\lambda\betatB​=βr​−λβ. The retailer's contracted cost is its original cost minus this transfer; the supplier's contracted cost is its original cost plus it. The parameter λ\lambdaλ describes a family of printed contract rates and is not itself a payment term Cachon (2003), p. 74.

Formalization targets

The milestones establish the two expectation identities, the channel's cost formula and strict convexity, the channel's critical ratio, the retailer's lower uncontracted stock level, and the retailer's cost after the printed transfer. In the notation above, the channel optimum sr∘s_r^\circsr∘​ is unique and satisfies

Fr(sr∘)=βhr+β;F_r(s_r^\circ)=\frac{\beta}{h_r+\beta};Fr​(sr∘​)=hr​+ββ​;

the uncontracted retailer has its own unique optimum sr∗s_r^*sr∗​ with sr∗<sr∘s_r^*<s_r^\circsr∗​<sr∘​. Three further statements of §6.7.1 complete the section: the signs of the transfer rates over the family (tI≥0t_I\ge0tI​≥0, with tI>0t_I>0tI​>0 exactly for λ<1\lambda<1λ<1, and {tB:0<λ≤1}=[−βs,βr)\{t_B:0<\lambda\le1\}=[-\beta_s,\beta_r){tB​:0<λ≤1}=[−βs​,βr​)); the decomposition

tIIr(y)+tBBr(y)=(tI+tB)Ir(y)+tB(μr−y);t_I I_r(y)+t_B B_r(y)=(t_I+t_B)I_r(y)+t_B(\mu_r-y);tI​Ir​(y)+tB​Br​(y)=(tI​+tB​)Ir​(y)+tB​(μr​−y);

and the equivalence with the newsvendor model: with lead-time demand as newsvendor demand, retail price p=hr+βrp=h_r+\beta_rp=hr​+βr​ and wholesale price w=hrw=h_rw=hr​, the newsvendor retailer's profit pS(q)−wqpS(q)-wqpS(q)−wq, with expected sales S(q)=E[min⁡(q,Dr)]S(q)=\mathbb E[\min(q,D_r)]S(q)=E[min(q,Dr​)], equals −cr(q)+βrμr-c_r(q)+\beta_r\mu_r−cr​(q)+βr​μr​. The mission goal is the coordinating identity of Eq. (33), together with the unique optimality it implies:

crλ(s)=λc(s),csλ(s)=(1−λ)c(s)for all s∈R and 0<λ≤1.c_r^\lambda(s)=\lambda c(s),\qquad c_s^\lambda(s)=(1-\lambda)c(s) \quad\text{for all }s\in\mathbb R\text{ and }0<\lambda\le1.crλ​(s)=λc(s),csλ​(s)=(1−λ)c(s)for all s∈R and 0<λ≤1.

Consequently, the retailer's contracted cost has the same unique minimizer sr∘s_r^\circsr∘​ as the channel cost. At each stock level the retailer's contracted cost is strictly increasing in λ\lambdaλ, which is the page's statement that the retailer's share of the cost increases with λ\lambdaλ. The result does not prescribe one fixed allocation of cost: each λ\lambdaλ in the stated interval gives a contract with the same coordinated stock level and a different retailer share Cachon (2003), Eq. (33), p. 74.

Significance

The theorem identifies an explicit transfer that corrects an incentive gap created by the supplier's backorder cost. Without it, the retailer sets stock according to βr\beta_rβr​, while the channel's stock decision uses βr+βs\beta_r+\beta_sβr​+βs​. Under the contract, the retailer bears the fraction λ\lambdaλ of total cost at every stock level, so its decision agrees with the integrated channel's decision. This conclusion connects a decentralized cost objective to the base-stock target used in the next section's two-location analysis Cachon (2003), §§6.7–6.8.

The chapter proves these claims informally; this mission asks for machine-checked Lean proofs of the expectation identities, convexity and optimality claims, and the contract identity. Its reusable output is the precise treatment of expected positive-part inventory and backorders under a demand law with finite mean. The local definitions may also support later formalizations of inventory contracts. Expected sales in the newsvendor comparison is the published SupplyChainTheory.expSales (definition SupplyChainTheory_contracts), referenced rather than redefined. The existing proved SupplyChainTheory.chain_optimal_fractile concerns a single-period newsvendor profit objective; its critical ratio is related mathematically but belongs to a different model and is not substituted for Eq. (31).

Difficulty

The algebra of the transfer rates is short, but the unique-optimum claim depends on more than algebra. It requires expected inventory and backorders to match the distribution formulas, the cost to have the required curvature at nonnegative levels, and the optimum to occur at a positive level. A formal statement that defines the retailer's contracted cost directly as λc\lambda cλc would erase the coordinating claim. The negative-stock region also matters: since demand is nonnegative, expected inventory vanishes there and cost is affine rather than strictly convex. The formulation must keep strict convexity on the range where it holds while still identifying the unique optimum among all real stock levels.

Formalization scope

Lean represents DrD_rDr​ by a probability measure on R\mathbb RR supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), with an explicit integrable first moment. The density is a measurable nonnegative function whose induced measure is the demand law; the cdf is continuous, strictly increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), equals zero at zero, and has that density as its derivative at positive levels. These are the section's distribution assumptions. The positive rates hr,βr,βsh_r,\beta_r,\beta_shr​,βr​,βs​ are fields of one model, and Ir,BrI_r,B_rIr​,Br​ are defined by expectations. This rules out accidental zero values from nonintegrable real integrals. The cost functions are constructed from the expected inventory and backorders; the transfer is constructed from the two printed rates. The identities in Eqs. (28)–(33) are theorem targets, not definitions.

Stock levels are real, including negative levels, because the section does not explicitly restrict the decision set. The formal result states strict convexity on nonnegative levels and uniqueness of the cost minimizers over all real levels. The page's sentence that tI>0t_I>0tI​>0 for all λ∈(0,1]\lambda\in(0,1]λ∈(0,1] fails at λ=1\lambda=1λ=1, where tI=0t_I=0tI​=0; the formal statement asserts tI≥0t_I\ge0tI​≥0 with strict positivity exactly for λ<1\lambda<1λ<1. The contract range is exactly 0<λ≤10<\lambda\le10<λ≤1; λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 would make every retailer stock level cost-equivalent. The transfer sign is positive from supplier to retailer, as on p. 73. Risk neutrality and full information are the chapter's standing conventions. The continuous-review state process, supplier capacity, and proof that a base-stock policy attains the displayed long-run average are not modeled; the mission formalizes the section's explicit lead-time-demand cost reduction. Contributions that establish integrability, distribution identities, strict convexity, and critical-ratio optimality are all needed for closure.

Selected references

  • Gérard P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 11, North-Holland, 2003; source used here: author's third draft, January 2003, §6.7. DOI.
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 2: KNAPSACK Reduces to Single-Machine Maximum Lateness, Weighted Number of Late Jobs, and Weighted Completion Time with DeadlinesResearch Paper

Motivation

Deterministic machine scheduling was one of the first application areas of the theory of NP-completeness. After Cook (1971) and Karp (1972) showed that a large family of combinatorial problems are polynomially equivalent, Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan set out to locate the boundary between the polynomially solvable and the NP-complete scheduling problems. Their report Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems (Mathematisch Centrum, Report BW 43/75, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) introduced the four-field notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣kn|m|\ell,\lambda|kn∣m∣ℓ,λ∣k that, in refined form, is still the standard classification of scheduling problems, and proved NP-completeness of the "easiest" hard problems by explicit reductions.

Single-machine problems with due dates sit right at that boundary. Minimizing the maximum lateness Lmax⁡L_{\max}Lmax​ is solved by Jackson's earliest-due-date rule (1955), and minimizing the number of late jobs by Moore's algorithm (1968). Theorem 4 of the report shows that small changes to these problems — one release date, job weights, or due dates turned into deadlines under a weighted completion-time objective — make them NP-complete, by reduction from KNAPSACK. This mission formalizes four of those reductions, parts (b), (c), (e) and (f) of Theorem 4.

Timeline, as far as this mission is concerned:

  • 1955: Jackson — n∣1∣∣Lmax⁡n|1||L_{\max}n∣1∣∣Lmax​ is solved by sequencing in order of nondecreasing due dates.
  • 1968: Moore — n∣1∣∣∑Ujn|1||\sum U_jn∣1∣∣∑Uj​ (unit weights, no release dates) is solvable in polynomial time.
  • 1972: Karp — KNAPSACK (in the subset-sum form used here) is NP-complete; Karp also notes the reduction to n∣1∣∣∑wjUjn|1||\sum w_jU_jn∣1∣∣∑wj​Uj​, which the report cites for part (e).
  • 1975: Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan — Theorem 4: KNAPSACK reduces to ten scheduling problems, including the four single-machine problems of this mission.

Setting

A single-machine instance consists of n≥1n\ge1n≥1 jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​. Job JjJ_jJj​ needs pj1p_{j1}pj1​ units of processing on the machine M1M_1M1​, has a weight wjw_jwj​, a release date rjr_jrj​ and a due date djd_jdj​; all data are nonnegative integers. A schedule assigns to each job a starting time Bj≥rjB_j\ge r_jBj​≥rj​ such that the occupied intervals [Bj,Bj+pj1)[B_j,B_j+p_{j1})[Bj​,Bj​+pj1​) of distinct jobs are disjoint. Idle time is allowed; a job with pj1=0p_{j1}=0pj1​=0 occupies an empty interval. The completion time is Cj=Bj+pj1C_j=B_j+p_{j1}Cj​=Bj​+pj1​, the lateness is Lj=Cj−djL_j=C_j-d_jLj​=Cj​−dj​ (possibly negative), and UjU_jUj​ is 000 if Cj≤djC_j\le d_jCj​≤dj​ and 111 otherwise. The criteria are

Lmax⁡=max⁡jLj,∑wjCj=∑j=1nwjCj,∑wjUj=∑j=1nwjUj.L_{\max}=\max_j L_j,\qquad \sum w_jC_j=\sum_{j=1}^n w_jC_j,\qquad \sum w_jU_j=\sum_{j=1}^n w_jU_j .Lmax​=jmax​Lj​,∑wj​Cj​=j=1∑n​wj​Cj​,∑wj​Uj​=j=1∑n​wj​Uj​.

The problem class is written in the λ\lambdaλ field: by default every rj=0r_j=0rj​=0; rn≥0r_n\ge0rn​≥0 allows a nonzero release date for the last job JnJ_nJn​ only; wj=1w_j=1wj​=1 fixes unit weights; Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0 admits only schedules that meet every due date. A problem is turned into a yes/no question by asking whether a schedule with value ≤y\le y≤y exists.

KNAPSACK (Theorem 2(b) of the report): given positive integers a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b, is there a subset S⊆T={1,…,t}S\subseteq T=\{1,\dots,t\}S⊆T={1,…,t} with ∑j∈Saj=b\sum_{j\in S}a_j=b∑j∈S​aj​=b? Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​.

A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP whose answer is the same.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4(b), (c), (e), (f)

KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣Lmax⁡≤0∣∑wjCj,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn≥0∣Lmax⁡,\mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|L_{\max}\le0|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j,\quad \mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|r_n\ge0|L_{\max},KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣Lmax​≤0∣∑wj​Cj​,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn​≥0∣Lmax​, KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wjUj,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn≥0,wj=1∣∑wjUj,\mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1||\textstyle\sum w_jU_j,\quad \mathsf{KNAPSACK}\propto n|1|r_n\ge0,w_j=1|\textstyle\sum w_jU_j ,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣∣∑wj​Uj​,KNAPSACK∝n∣1∣rn​≥0,wj​=1∣∑wj​Uj​,

as polynomial-time many-one reductions between languages of binary strings.

Milestones: the four yes-instance equivalences

For positive a1,…,at,ba_1,\dots,a_t,ba1​,…,at​,b with 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A, and the paper's constructions:

  • 4(c): n=t+1n=t+1n=t+1; rj=0r_j=0rj​=0, pj1=ajp_{j1}=a_jpj1​=aj​, dj=A+1d_j=A+1dj​=A+1 for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T; rn=br_n=brn​=b, pn1=1p_{n1}=1pn1​=1, dn=b+1d_n=b+1dn​=b+1. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0.
  • 4(f): the same instance with unit weights; KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has ∑Uj≤0\sum U_j\le0∑Uj​≤0.
  • 4(e): n=tn=tn=t; pj1=wj=ajp_{j1}=w_j=a_jpj1​=wj​=aj​, dj=bd_j=bdj​=b. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule has ∑wjUj≤A−b\sum w_jU_j\le A-b∑wj​Uj​≤A−b.
  • 4(b): n=t+1n=t+1n=t+1; pj1=wj=ajp_{j1}=w_j=a_jpj1​=wj​=aj​, dj=A+1d_j=A+1dj​=A+1 for j∈Tj\in Tj∈T; pn1=1p_{n1}=1pn1​=1, wn=0w_n=0wn​=0, dn=b+1d_n=b+1dn​=b+1. KNAPSACK has a solution iff some schedule meeting all due dates has
∑wjCj≤y=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak+A−b.\sum w_jC_j\le y=\sum_{j,k\in T,\ j\le k}a_ja_k+A-b .∑wj​Cj​≤y=j,k∈T, j≤k∑​aj​ak​+A−b.

Significance

The result. Combined with the NP-completeness of KNAPSACK, the four reductions show that the four problems are NP-hard (in the ordinary sense; they admit pseudo-polynomial algorithms). Part (c) shows that Jackson's rule cannot be extended to a single nonzero release date unless P = NP; part (f) does the same for Moore's algorithm; part (e) explains why weights are essential in the late-jobs problem; part (b) shows that deadlines turn the weighted completion-time problem, solved by Smith's ratio rule without them, into a hard one. These are entries of the complexity tables that every later scheduling classification builds on.

Formalizing it. The reductions are classical and proved on paper, in a few lines each: for (c), (e) and (f) the report gives only the construction and a figure. None of them has a machine-checked proof. A complete formalization supplies the explicit equivalence over all feasible schedules (including schedules with idle time and arbitrary processing order), the handling of the inputs the proof sets aside by "we may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A", and the polynomial-time computability of the constructions in a Turing-machine model.

Difficulty

Each equivalence has an easy direction: a subset SSS with sum bbb gives the schedule "jobs of SSS, then JnJ_nJn​, then the rest" (Figures 4 and 7 of the report). The other direction must rule out every feasible schedule, not only the idle-free ones in the displayed order. The report gives no argument for this direction in (c), (e) and (f), and for (b) only a computation for idle-free schedules of one shape. The equivalences are false outside 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A in some cases (for (c), any b>Ab>Ab>A makes every schedule on time), so the goal's reduction must treat those inputs separately.

The heavier part is polynomial-time computability: the reduction must be a function on strings, computed by a one-tape Turing machine within a polynomial number of steps, that parses a binary-coded KNAPSACK instance, computes AAA and the threshold (for (b), a sum of O(t2)O(t^2)O(t2) products), and writes the coded scheduling instance — and maps malformed strings outside the target language.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Jobs are Fin n (0-based; JnJ_nJn​ is the last index), with n>0n>0n>0 in each target language. Starting times are natural numbers: Section 3 computes them from processing orders on integer data, and since all criteria here are regular and release dates survive left shifts, real starting times give the same yes-instances. Feasibility requires disjoint occupied intervals, including empty intervals when pj1=0p_{j1}=0pj1​=0. Idle time is allowed. Lateness is an integer.
  • Problem classes are binding. rn≥0r_n\ge0rn​≥0 means at least one job and release date 000 for every job except the last; Lmax⁡≤0L_{\max}\le0Lmax​≤0 in (b) is a constraint on schedules, not the criterion. Instances outside the class are not in the target language.
  • Thresholds. y∈Ny\in\mathbb Ny∈N in all four languages; for Lmax⁡L_{\max}Lmax​ this restricts to nonnegative thresholds, enough for the paper's y=0y=0y=0. "Lmax⁡≤yL_{\max}\le yLmax​≤y" is stated as "Lj≤yL_j\le yLj​≤y for all jjj".
  • Codes. An instance with threshold yyy is the list nnn, then pj1,wj,rj,djp_{j1},w_j,r_j,d_jpj1​,wj​,rj​,dj​ per job, then yyy, each number in binary.
  • Reducibility. "Reducible" (Section 2) is read as Karp reducibility, CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs. The alphabet and binary number codes are those of the published definition ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann); its SUBSET SUM language is not reused because it admits zero sizes, while the paper's KNAPSACK is over positive integers.
  • Explicit readings of loose phrases. "We may assume that 0<b<A0<b<A0<b<A" becomes a hypothesis of each milestone and an obligation on the goal's reduction. "Cf. reduction (i) and Figure 4", "Cf. Karp [19] and Figure 7" and "The equivalence follows immediately" become the stated equivalences over all feasible schedules. Reduction (c) does not specify weights; the shared construction uses unit weights.
  • Not trivializable. The equivalences are stated for the paper's explicit constructions, not for an existentially chosen instance; the target languages enforce the problem class; and the goal demands polynomial-time computability, not only the equivalence.
  • Infrastructure. A Turing-machine library for arithmetic on binary codes (parsing, addition, multiplication, comparison) is reusable across all seven missions of this series and across every reduction posed in the same framework. Contributions of such general lemmas are welcome.

Parts (a), (d) and (g)–(j) of Theorem 4 are formalized in other missions of this series.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum, Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975; journal version: J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in: Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, Proc. 3rd ACM STOC, 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • J. M. Moore, An n job, one machine sequencing algorithm for minimizing the number of late jobs, Management Science 15 (1968) 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.1.102
  • J. R. Jackson, Scheduling a production line to minimize maximum tardiness, Research Report 43, Management Science Research Project, UCLA, 1955.
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems 1: PARTITION Reduces to Makespan and to Weighted Completion Time on Two Identical MachinesResearch Paper

Motivation

Deterministic machine scheduling asks how to process a set of jobs on a set of machines so that an overall criterion, such as the time at which the last job finishes, is as small as possible. In the early 1970s many such problems had efficient algorithms (Johnson's rule for the two-machine flow shop, Smith's ratio rule for a single machine, Lawler's rule under precedence constraints), while others resisted every attempt. The report of Brucker, Lenstra and Rinnooy Kan (Mathematisch Centrum, 1975; journal version in Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977) drew the line between the two groups systematically. It fixed the four-field notation n∣m∣ℓ,λ∣kn|m|\ell,\lambda|kn∣m∣ℓ,λ∣k that the scheduling literature still uses, and it proved NP-completeness of the "easiest" hard problems by explicit reductions in the sense of Karp.

The first family of reductions in the report, Theorem 3, concerns the simplest machine environment beyond a single machine: two identical machines. It shows that already there, minimizing the makespan and minimizing the total weighted completion time are as hard as PARTITION. These two reductions are simplified versions of reductions given by Bruno, Coffman and Sethi (1974), reference [3] of the report.

Setting

PARTITION. Given positive integers a1,…,ata_1,\dots,a_ta1​,…,at​, decide whether there is a subset SSS of T={1,…,t}T=\{1,\dots,t\}T={1,…,t} with

∑j∈Saj=∑j∈T−Saj.\sum_{j\in S}a_j=\sum_{j\in T-S}a_j .j∈S∑​aj​=j∈T−S∑​aj​.

Write A=∑j∈TajA=\sum_{j\in T}a_jA=∑j∈T​aj​ for the total.

Two identical machines. There are nnn jobs J1,…,JnJ_1,\dots,J_nJ1​,…,Jn​ and two machines M1,M2M_1,M_2M1​,M2​. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pj∈Np_j\in\mathbb Npj​∈N and a weight wj∈Nw_j\in\mathbb Nwj​∈N, and must be processed without interruption on one machine of its choice; all jobs are available at time 000. A schedule assigns to every job a machine and a starting time Bj∈NB_j\in\mathbb NBj​∈N; its completion time is Cj=Bj+pjC_j=B_j+p_jCj​=Bj​+pj​. A schedule is feasible if no two jobs on the same machine are processed at the same time, i.e. the intervals [Bj,Bj+pj)[B_j,B_j+p_j)[Bj​,Bj​+pj​) on each machine are pairwise disjoint. Idle time is allowed. Two criteria are considered:

Cmax⁡=max⁡jCj,∑jwjCj.C_{\max}=\max_j C_j,\qquad \sum_j w_jC_j .Cmax​=jmax​Cj​,j∑​wj​Cj​.

The problems n∣2∣I∣Cmax⁡n|2|I|C_{\max}n∣2∣I∣Cmax​ and n∣2∣I∣∑wjCjn|2|I|\sum w_jC_jn∣2∣I∣∑wj​Cj​ ask for a feasible schedule minimizing the respective criterion.

Reducibility. Following Section 2 of the report, each problem is replaced by its recognition version: given an instance and a threshold yyy, is there a feasible schedule with value ≤y\le y≤y? A problem P′P'P′ is reducible to PPP, written P′∝PP'\propto PP′∝P, if every instance of P′P'P′ can be transformed in polynomial time into an instance of PPP with the same answer. Instances are written as words over a finite alphabet, with every number in binary.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

PARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣Cmax⁡andPARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣∑wjCj.\text{PARTITION}\propto n|2|I|C_{\max}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \text{PARTITION}\propto n|2|I|\textstyle\sum w_jC_j .PARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣Cmax​andPARTITION∝n∣2∣I∣∑wj​Cj​.

Both reductions use the same instance shape: n=tn=tn=t jobs with pj=ajp_j=a_jpj​=aj​.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3(a), equivalence. With pj=ajp_j=a_jpj​=aj​ and y=12Ay=\tfrac12Ay=21​A: PARTITION has a solution iff some feasible schedule has Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y.
  2. Ordering independence. With pj=wj=ajp_j=w_j=a_jpj​=wj​=aj​, if SSS is the set of jobs on M1M_1M1​ and each machine works without idle time from 000, then ∑wjCj=k(S)\sum w_jC_j=k(S)∑wj​Cj​=k(S) for every order of the jobs, where
k(S)=∑j,k∈S, j≤kajak+∑j,k∈T−S, j≤kajak;k(S)=\sum_{j,k\in S,\,j\le k}a_ja_k+\sum_{j,k\in T-S,\,j\le k}a_ja_k ;k(S)=j,k∈S,j≤k∑​aj​ak​+j,k∈T−S,j≤k∑​aj​ak​;

every feasible schedule with this assignment has value at least k(S)k(S)k(S). 3. The identity for k(S)k(S)k(S). With c=∑j∈Saj−12Ac=\sum_{j\in S}a_j-\tfrac12Ac=∑j∈S​aj​−21​A,

k(S)=k(T)−(∑j∈Saj)(∑j∈T−Saj)=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak−(12A+c)(12A−c)=y+c2.k(S)=k(T)-\Big(\sum_{j\in S}a_j\Big)\Big(\sum_{j\in T-S}a_j\Big)=\sum_{j,k\in T,\,j\le k}a_ja_k-\big(\tfrac12A+c\big)\big(\tfrac12A-c\big)=y+c^2 .k(S)=k(T)−(j∈S∑​aj​)(j∈T−S∑​aj​)=j,k∈T,j≤k∑​aj​ak​−(21​A+c)(21​A−c)=y+c2.
  1. Theorem 3(b), equivalence. With pj=wj=ajp_j=w_j=a_jpj​=wj​=aj​ and y=∑j,k∈T, j≤kajak−14A2y=\sum_{j,k\in T,\,j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2y=∑j,k∈T,j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2: PARTITION has a solution iff some feasible schedule has ∑wjCj≤y\sum w_jC_j\le y∑wj​Cj​≤y.

Significance

The result. Since PARTITION is NP-complete (Karp 1972), Theorem 3 shows that both problems are NP-hard with only two machines and a single operation per job; their recognition versions are NP-complete. Together with the single-machine and shop results in the rest of the report, it places the boundary of tractability in deterministic scheduling. The makespan problem P2∥Cmax⁡P2\|C_{\max}P2∥Cmax​ became a standard source problem for later hardness proofs and a standard target for pseudo-polynomial algorithms and approximation schemes. The weighted completion time result contrasts with the single-machine case, which Smith's ratio rule solves in polynomial time.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and fully proved on paper; the report prints the constructions and, for (b), a short calculation. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists. The mission produces (i) a precise model of nonpreemptive schedules on two identical machines with integer start times and idle time allowed, (ii) the two yes-instance equivalences with the paper's rational thresholds, (iii) the ordering-independence statement for pj=wjp_j=w_jpj​=wj​ behind part (b), and (iv) the polynomial-time computability of the reductions in a Turing machine model. Part (iv) is the formal content of "reducible" and is missing from the paper.

Difficulty

For part (a) the mathematics is short. The paper treats it as evident; a formal proof must still handle schedules with idle time and the case of odd AAA, where 12A\tfrac12A21​A is not an integer.

Part (b) rests on the claim that, when pj=wjp_j=w_jpj​=wj​, the value ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ does not depend on the order of the jobs on a machine. For a single machine without idle time this is a symmetric double sum. A recognition-problem proof also needs the converse direction: no schedule with idle time beats the non-idle one, so every feasible schedule with assignment SSS has value at least k(S)k(S)k(S). The paper cites this rather than proving it.

The step the paper leaves out entirely is polynomiality. The constructions copy the input and compute 12A\tfrac12A21​A or ∑j≤kajak−14A2\sum_{j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2∑j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2, and in a one-tape Turing machine model with an explicit polynomial time bound this needs binary arithmetic (sums, products, a floor) carried out on the tape. It also needs a decoder that rejects malformed words and lists containing a zero. This is routine in principle but long in practice.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Jobs are Fin n and machines Fin 2 (machine 0 is M1M_1M1​). Starting times are natural numbers. Section 3 of the report computes them from processing orders on nonnegative integer data, and both criteria are regular, so real starting times would give the same yes-instances. Processing times may be zero; a zero-length job occupies the empty interval. Schedules may contain idle time.
  • Criteria. "Cmax⁡≤yC_{\max}\le yCmax​≤y" is stated as Cj≤yC_j\le yCj​≤y for every job, which equals max⁡jCj≤y\max_jC_j\le ymaxj​Cj​≤y for n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and avoids a supremum. ∑wjCj\sum w_jC_j∑wj​Cj​ is a finite sum in N\mathbb NN.
  • Languages. PARTITION is the set of binary codes of lists of positive integers that admit a partition; a code of a list with a zero entry is not in the language. A target word codes nnn, the processing times (and weights, job by job), and a threshold y∈Ny\in\mathbb Ny∈N. The number of machines is fixed by the class and not coded. Every coded instance is in the class, so the language admits nothing outside it.
  • Reducibility is CookPvsNP.PolyReducible from the published definition CookPvsNP_defs (Cook's one-tape Turing machines, polynomial-time many-one reductions). The alphabet BSym and the binary code encNats are reused from the published ProjSchedTW.Complexity.Encoding (Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann). Its PARTITION language is not reused, because it allows zero sizes.
  • Thresholds. The milestones state the paper's thresholds 12A\tfrac12A21​A and ∑j≤kajak−14A2\sum_{j\le k}a_ja_k-\tfrac14A^2∑j≤k​aj​ak​−41​A2 as real numbers, exactly as printed. The goal's reduction must write a natural-number threshold; all schedule values are integers, so the floor of the printed threshold gives the same yes-instances.
  • Explicit readings. The equivalence of (a) is not printed; the report says on p. 14 that such equivalences are "trivial or clear" where not proved. "Only depends on the choice of SSS" is stated as two facts: equality for non-idle schedules and a lower bound for all feasible schedules. "It is easily seen (cf. Figure 1)" is the three-step identity, one equality per printed step. k(S)k(S)k(S) is defined by its closed form, and its link to schedules is a milestone.
  • Ruled out. A target language whose yes-instances are defined through PARTITION, an equivalence for some instance rather than the paper's construction, and a goal that drops polynomial-time computability would all make the goal vacuous or different. The statements here use the constructions as printed and Cook's reducibility.
  • Welcome contributions. Proofs of the four milestones; a library of polynomial-time Turing machine programs for binary arithmetic and list decoding over BSym, which every mission of this series needs and which is reusable for other reductions on the platform.

Selected references

  • P. Brucker, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Mathematisch Centrum Report BW 43/75, Amsterdam, 1975. https://ir.cwi.nl/pub/9725/9725D.pdf
  • J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Complexity of machine scheduling problems, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1 (1977) 343–362. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • J. Bruno, E. G. Coffman Jr., R. Sethi, Scheduling independent tasks to reduce mean finishing time, Communications of the ACM 17 (1974) 382–387. https://doi.org/10.1145/361011.361064
  • R. M. Karp, Reducibility among combinatorial problems, in Complexity of Computer Computations, Plenum, 1972, 85–103. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4684-2001-2_9
  • S. A. Cook, The complexity of theorem-proving procedures, STOC 1971, 151–158. https://doi.org/10.1145/800157.805047
  • W. E. Smith, Various optimizers for single-stage production, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3 (1956) 59–66. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030106
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Dynamic ProgrammingGraph TheoryOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Send-and-Split Method for Minimum-Concave-Cost Network Flows II: Subproblem Minimum Costs Are the Greatest Solution of the Send-and-Split Equations, Unique if Circulations Cost Positively (Theorem 2)Research Paper

Motivation

Many network-design and production-planning problems ask for a cheapest way to route a commodity from supply points to demand points when the cost of an arc grows less than proportionally with the amount sent: setup charges, economies of scale, and fixed-plus-linear costs all give concave arc costs. Minimizing a concave function over the flow polytope is NP-hard in general, and the classical linear-cost machinery (potentials, negative-cycle tests) no longer applies. Erickson, Monma and Veinott (Math. Oper. Res. 12 (1987)) gave the send-and-split method, a dynamic program over subsets of the demand nodes that solves the uncapacitated problem in time polynomial in the number of nodes and arcs and exponential only in the number of demand nodes. It contains as special cases the Dreyfus–Wagner recursion for Steiner trees in graphs (Networks 1 (1971)), and the paper applies it to concave-cost production, inventory and network-design problems (§6).

Timeline. Zangwill (1968) solved minimum-concave-cost flows on special networks by dynamic programming. Dreyfus and Wagner (1971) gave the subset recursion for Steiner trees with positive arc lengths. Erickson, Monma and Veinott (1987) extended the subset recursion to arbitrary uncapacitated networks with additive concave arc costs and arbitrary real demands, proved that the minimum costs of the subproblems form the greatest solution of the resulting equations (Theorem 2), and showed it is the only solution when every simple circulation has positive cost.

Setting

A network consists of a directed graph G=(N,A)G = (N, A)G=(N,A) with nodes N={0,…,n−1}N = \{0, \dots, n-1\}N={0,…,n−1} and arcs AAA, ordered pairs of distinct nodes, together with a real demand vector r=(ri)r = (r_i)r=(ri​). A preflow is a nonnegative matrix x=(xij)x = (x_{ij})x=(xij​) supported on AAA; a flow for rrr is a preflow with inflow minus outflow equal to rir_iri​ at every node. Each arc has a cost function cijc_{ij}cij​, concave on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) with cij(0)=0c_{ij}(0) = 0cij​(0)=0, and the cost of a preflow is c(x)=∑(i,j)∈Acij(xij)c(x) = \sum_{(i,j)\in A} c_{ij}(x_{ij})c(x)=∑(i,j)∈A​cij​(xij​). A minimum-cost flow is a flow whose cost is at most that of every flow. A simple circulation is a circulation equal to some θ>0\theta > 0θ>0 on the arcs of a simple directed circuit and 000 elsewhere.

The demand nodes are D={i:ri≠0}D = \{ i : r_i \neq 0 \}D={i:ri​=0}. For ∅⊂I⊆D\emptyset \subset I \subseteq D∅⊂I⊆D let rI=∑j∈Irjr_I = \sum_{j \in I} r_jrI​=∑j∈I​rj​. The subproblem i→Ii \to Ii→I keeps the demands of the nodes in III, sets all others to zero, and subtracts rIr_IrI​ at node iii; CiIC_{iI}CiI​ is its minimum cost, +∞+\infty+∞ when it has no flow. Let AI=AA_I = AAI​=A if rI>0r_I > 0rI​>0 and the reversed arcs if rI<0r_I < 0rI​<0, with sending cost cij(rI)c_{ij}(r_I)cij​(rI​), read as cji(−rI)c_{ji}(-r_I)cji​(−rI​) when rI<0r_I < 0rI​<0. The send-and-split equations for an array C′C'C′ are

CiI′=Cj,I∖{j}′ (j∈I)if rI=0,(1)C'_{iI} = C'_{j, I\setminus\{j\}} \ (j \in I) \quad \text{if } r_I = 0, \qquad (1)CiI′​=Cj,I∖{j}′​ (j∈I)if rI​=0,(1) CiI′=min⁡(i,j)∈AI[cij(rI)+CjI′]∧BiI′if rI≠0,(2)C'_{iI} = \min_{(i,j)\in A_I} \bigl[ c_{ij}(r_I) + C'_{jI} \bigr] \wedge B'_{iI} \quad \text{if } r_I \neq 0, \qquad (2)CiI′​=(i,j)∈AI​min​[cij​(rI​)+CjI′​]∧BiI′​if rI​=0,(2)

with BiI′=min⁡∅⊂J⊂I[CiJ′+Ci,I∖J′]B'_{iI} = \min_{\emptyset\subset J\subset I} [C'_{iJ} + C'_{i,I\setminus J}]BiI′​=min∅⊂J⊂I​[CiJ′​+Ci,I∖J′​] for ∣I∣>1|I| > 1∣I∣>1, and BiI′=0B'_{iI} = 0BiI′​=0 if I={i}I = \{i\}I={i}, +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise, for ∣I∣=1|I| = 1∣I∣=1 (3).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (Dynamic-Programming Equations)

If there is a minimum-cost flow for rrr, then

C solves (1)–(3),CjI′≤CjI  for every +∞-or-real solution C′,C \text{ solves (1)–(3)}, \qquad C'_{jI} \le C_{jI} \ \text{ for every } +\infty\text{-or-real solution } C',C solves (1)–(3),CjI′​≤CjI​  for every +∞-or-real solution C′,

for all j∈Nj \in Nj∈N and ∅⊂I⊆D\emptyset \subset I \subseteq D∅⊂I⊆D. If moreover every simple circulation has positive cost, then every +∞+\infty+∞-or-real solution equals CCC.

Milestones

In attack order: the subproblem alternative (a minimum-cost flow or no flow, p. 640); equation (1); inequalities (4), (5), (6) (p. 641); CiI=BiIC_{iI} = B_{iI}CiI​=BiI​ for i∈Ii \in Ii∈I (p. 641); CCC satisfies (1) and (2) (p. 642); and two generic statements about Bellman's equations (2)′ for minimum-cost chains in a graph with nonnegative, respectively positive, simple circuits: the minimum chain costs form the greatest solution and are nondecreasing in the arc costs, and with positive circuits the solution is unique (p. 642).

Significance

Theorem 2 is the correctness theorem of the send-and-split method: it says that solving equations (1)–(3) by increasing ∣I∣|I|∣I∣, with a shortest-chain computation for each III, yields the true subproblem minimum costs, in particular the optimum CiDC_{iD}CiD​ of the original problem. Its uniqueness clause identifies when the equations alone determine the answer, and the counterexample on p. 641 (zero costs on a strongly connected graph) shows that the positivity hypothesis cannot simply be dropped. The same structure underlies the Steiner-tree recursion.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is formalized. This mission supplies Lean definitions of uncapacitated concave-cost flows with extended-real minimum costs and the send-and-split equations, and poses the correctness theorem as a proof goal. The two Bellman milestones are general facts about minimum-cost chains with +∞+\infty+∞-or-real values and are reusable well beyond this paper. Related items on the platform are credited, not reused: the Dreyfus–Wagner Steiner recursion DreyfusWagner.Steiner.steinerLength_recurrence and DreyfusWagner.Steiner.optimal_decomposition (the special case of undirected positive lengths), and BellmanRouting.PolicySpace.routing_equation_unique (uniqueness of the routing equation on a complete graph with positive real times).

Difficulty

The equations (2) mix two minima: sending the whole demand rIr_IrI​ across one arc, and splitting III at the current node. Showing that CCC satisfies them requires that some optimal flow of every subproblem has a tree-like structure, which in turn rests on the existence theory for concave-cost flows (an optimum is attained at an extreme flow whose support is a forest). Showing that CCC is the greatest solution requires an induction on ∣I∣|I|∣I∣ in which, for fixed III, equation (2) is a shortest-chain system whose arc costs to an auxiliary node depend on the solution at smaller sets; comparison then needs monotonicity of minimum chain costs in the arc costs, including arcs whose cost drops from +∞+\infty+∞. The naive attempt to prove uniqueness by iterating (2) fails without the positivity hypothesis, because zero-cost circuits admit spurious solutions.

Formalization scope

Nodes are Fin n; arcs are a Finset (Fin n × Fin n) with no loops; arc costs are functions R→R\mathbb{R} \to \mathbb{R}R→R assumed concave on Set.Ici 0 with cij(0)=0c_{ij}(0) = 0cij​(0)=0 at arcs (the paper's standing assumption, stated as a hypothesis). Minimum costs, sending costs, splitting terms and solutions take values in EReal; the empty infimum is +∞+\infty+∞, as on the page.

Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "there is a minimum-cost flow" means a flow for rrr whose cost is at most that of every flow for rrr;
  • "+∞+\infty+∞ or real-valued" means ≠−∞\neq -\infty=−∞, required on every ∅⊂I⊆D\emptyset \subset I \subseteq D∅⊂I⊆D;
  • "greatest solution" is two claims: CCC is a solution, and every solution is ≤C\le C≤C entrywise;
  • "each simple circulation has positive cost" quantifies over every simple circuit and every θ>0\theta > 0θ>0;
  • "CiIC_{iI}CiI​ is finite" is rendered as CiI=c(x)C_{iI} = c(x)CiI​=c(x) for a minimum-cost flow xxx of the subproblem;
  • "minimum-cost chain" is the infimum of walk costs, attained or +∞+\infty+∞; arc costs of +∞+\infty+∞ in (2)′ are missing arcs.

The definition of CiIC_{iI}CiI​ is the infimum over flows, never the equations themselves; a formalization defining CCC by (1)–(3), or omitting the ≠−∞\neq -\infty=−∞ condition on solutions, or dropping the clause that CCC is itself a solution, would make the theorem trivial or false and is ruled out. Arrays are compared only on admissible sets. The graph structure of (2)′ is the platform definition BertsekasSPGraph. Running-time bounds, the planar refinements of §4 (Theorem 3) and the capacitated reduction of §5 are out of scope. Proofs of any milestone, and a formalization of the paper's Theorem 1 that the proofs rely on, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. E. Erickson, C. L. Monma, A. F. Veinott, Jr., Send-and-Split Method for Minimum-Concave-Cost Network Flows, Mathematics of Operations Research 12(4), 1987, 634–664. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.12.4.634
  • S. E. Dreyfus, R. A. Wagner, The Steiner Problem in Graphs, Networks 1(3), 1971, 195–207. https://doi.org/10.1002/net.3230010302
  • R. Bellman, On a Routing Problem, Quarterly of Applied Mathematics 16(1), 1958, 87–90. https://doi.org/10.1090/qam/102435
  • W. M. Hirsch, A. J. Hoffman, Extreme Varieties, Concave Functions, and the Fixed Charge Problem, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 14(3), 1961, 355–369. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160140312
  • W. I. Zangwill, Minimum Concave Cost Flows in Certain Networks, Management Science 14(7), 1968, 429–450. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.7.429
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments VI: Revenue-Ordered Offer Sets Grow with Capacity Left and Shrink with Time LeftResearch Paper

Motivation

In airline and hotel revenue management a firm sells a fixed stock of a perishable resource (seats on a flight leg, rooms on a night) over a finite selling horizon, and in each period decides which fare classes to open. Customers do not buy a fixed fare: they choose among the fares on offer, or leave. Talluri and van Ryzin (Management Science, 2004) formulated this single-leg, choice-based problem as a dynamic program over the time remaining and the units remaining.

Practical revenue management systems rarely offer arbitrary sets of fares. They use nested controls: fares are opened from the most expensive downwards, so the open set is always "every fare above some threshold". Whether restricting to such revenue-ordered offer sets is natural depends on how the optimal threshold moves as the state changes. For mixtures of multinomial logit models, Rusmevichientong, Shmoys, Tong and Topaloglu (Production and Operations Management, 2014, Theorem 6) showed that the best revenue-ordered threshold moves monotonically in both the remaining capacity and the remaining time.

Berbeglia and Joret (arXiv:1606.01371v3, §5, Theorem 5.1) extend these two monotonicity properties to every regular discrete choice model, the class that contains essentially every model used in revenue management, including all random utility models. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

A finite nonempty set C\mathcal CC of products is sold. For a choice set S⊆CS\subseteq\mathcal CS⊆C and a product xxx, P(x,S)\mathcal P(x,S)P(x,S) is the probability that a customer offered SSS buys xxx; the no-purchase probability is P(0,S)=1−∑x∈SP(x,S)\mathcal P(0,S)=1-\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)P(0,S)=1−∑x∈S​P(x,S). The system P\mathcal PP is regular when (i) all these probabilities are nonnegative, (ii) P(x,S)=0\mathcal P(x,S)=0P(x,S)=0 for x∉Sx\notin Sx∈/S, (iii) ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤1\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le 1∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤1, and (iv) P(x,S)≥P(x,S′)\mathcal P(x,S)\ge\mathcal P(x,S')P(x,S)≥P(x,S′) whenever S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′, for every x∈Sx\in Sx∈S and for the no-purchase option x=0x=0x=0.

Each product xxx has a revenue r(x)>0r(x)>0r(x)>0. Let r1<r2<⋯<rkr_1<r_2<\cdots<r_kr1​<r2​<⋯<rk​ be the distinct revenues. For ℓ∈[k]={1,…,k}\ell\in[k]=\{1,\dots,k\}ℓ∈[k]={1,…,k} the revenue-ordered assortment is Sℓ={x∈C:r(x)≥rℓ}S_\ell=\{x\in\mathcal C:r(x)\ge r_\ell\}Sℓ​={x∈C:r(x)≥rℓ​}; a larger index ℓ\ellℓ gives a smaller set, S1=CS_1=\mathcal CS1​=C.

In the multi-period model one customer arrives per period. With ttt periods remaining and qqq units left, the firm offers some SℓS_\ellSℓ​. The values of the revenue-ordered dynamic program are

Jt(q,ℓ)=∑x∈SℓP(x,Sℓ)(r(x)+Jt−1(q−1))+P(0,Sℓ) Jt−1(q)(t,q>0),\mathcal J_t(q,\ell)=\sum_{x\in S_\ell}\mathcal P(x,S_\ell)\bigl(r(x)+\mathcal J_{t-1}(q-1)\bigr)+\mathcal P(0,S_\ell)\,\mathcal J_{t-1}(q)\qquad(t,q>0),Jt​(q,ℓ)=x∈Sℓ​∑​P(x,Sℓ​)(r(x)+Jt−1​(q−1))+P(0,Sℓ​)Jt−1​(q)(t,q>0),

Jt(q,ℓ)=0\mathcal J_t(q,\ell)=0Jt​(q,ℓ)=0 when t=0t=0t=0 or q=0q=0q=0, and Jt(q)=max⁡ℓ∈[k]Jt(q,ℓ)\mathcal J_t(q)=\max_{\ell\in[k]}\mathcal J_t(q,\ell)Jt​(q)=maxℓ∈[k]​Jt​(q,ℓ). The optimal revenue-ordered index is the smallest maximiser,

ℓt∗(q)=min⁡{ℓ∈[k]:Jt(q,ℓ)=Jt(q)},\ell^*_t(q)=\min\{\ell\in[k]:\mathcal J_t(q,\ell)=\mathcal J_t(q)\},ℓt∗​(q)=min{ℓ∈[k]:Jt​(q,ℓ)=Jt​(q)},

and ΔJt(q)=Jt(q)−Jt(q−1)\Delta\mathcal J_t(q)=\mathcal J_t(q)-\mathcal J_t(q-1)ΔJt​(q)=Jt​(q)−Jt​(q−1) is the marginal value of capacity.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

For every t≥1t\ge 1t≥1 and q≥1q\ge 1q≥1,

ℓt∗(q)≤ℓt∗(q−1)  if q≥2,ℓt∗(q)≥ℓt−1∗(q)  if t≥2.\ell^*_t(q)\le\ell^*_t(q-1)\ \text{ if } q\ge 2,\qquad \ell^*_t(q)\ge\ell^*_{t-1}(q)\ \text{ if } t\ge 2 .ℓt∗​(q)≤ℓt∗​(q−1)  if q≥2,ℓt∗​(q)≥ℓt−1∗​(q)  if t≥2.

More units left give a weakly larger optimal offer set; more periods left give a weakly smaller one. The paper states the theorem for t∈[T]t\in[T]t∈[T], q∈[Q]q\in[Q]q∈[Q]; the horizon and the capacity only bound ttt and qqq, so the goal is stated for all t,q≥1t,q\ge 1t,q≥1.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.1 (p. 6): ∑x∈SP(x,S)≤∑x∈S′P(x,S′)\sum_{x\in S}\mathcal P(x,S)\le\sum_{x\in S'}\mathcal P(x,S')∑x∈S​P(x,S)≤∑x∈S′​P(x,S′) for S⊆S′S\subseteq S'S⊆S′.
  2. Lemma .1 (p. 35): with L∗(δ)\mathcal L^*(\delta)L∗(δ) the set of indices ℓ\ellℓ maximising ∑x∈SℓP(x,Sℓ)(r(x)+δ)\sum_{x\in S_\ell}\mathcal P(x,S_\ell)(r(x)+\delta)∑x∈Sℓ​​P(x,Sℓ​)(r(x)+δ), if δ1+rk≥0\delta_1+r_k\ge 0δ1​+rk​≥0 and δ1≤δ2\delta_1\le\delta_2δ1​≤δ2​ then min⁡L∗(δ2)≤min⁡L∗(δ1)\min\mathcal L^*(\delta_2)\le\min\mathcal L^*(\delta_1)minL∗(δ2​)≤minL∗(δ1​).
  3. Equation (16) (p. 36): Jt(q)=max⁡ℓ∑x∈SℓP(x,Sℓ)(r(x)−ΔJt−1(q))+Jt−1(q)\mathcal J_t(q)=\max_{\ell}\sum_{x\in S_\ell}\mathcal P(x,S_\ell)(r(x)-\Delta\mathcal J_{t-1}(q))+\mathcal J_{t-1}(q)Jt​(q)=maxℓ​∑x∈Sℓ​​P(x,Sℓ​)(r(x)−ΔJt−1​(q))+Jt−1​(q).
  4. Equations (17)–(18) (p. 36): ℓt∗(q)=min⁡L∗(−ΔJt−1(q))\ell^*_t(q)=\min\mathcal L^*(-\Delta\mathcal J_{t-1}(q))ℓt∗​(q)=minL∗(−ΔJt−1​(q)).
  5. Marginal value at most rkr_krk​ (p. 36): ΔJt(q)≤rk\Delta\mathcal J_t(q)\le r_kΔJt​(q)≤rk​.
  6. Marginal value non-increasing in capacity (p. 36, citing Talluri–van Ryzin, Lemma 4): ΔJt(q+1)≤ΔJt(q)\Delta\mathcal J_t(q+1)\le\Delta\mathcal J_t(q)ΔJt​(q+1)≤ΔJt​(q).
  7. Marginal value non-decreasing in time (p. 37, citing Talluri–van Ryzin, Lemma 5): ΔJt(q)≤ΔJt+1(q)\Delta\mathcal J_t(q)\le\Delta\mathcal J_{t+1}(q)ΔJt​(q)≤ΔJt+1​(q).

Milestones 5–7 are asserted or cited in the paper, not proved there; milestones 6–7 are stated for this restricted dynamic program, which is the one the paper applies them to.

Significance

The theorem says that a firm restricted to revenue-ordered offer sets can implement its policy as a nested booking control: as seats sell out, the threshold fare can only rise, and as departure approaches with seats in hand, it can only fall. This is the structure that standard revenue management systems already assume, and Rusmevichientong et al. point out that such monotonicity can be used to implement them. The paper's contribution is that the property depends only on regularity of the choice model, not on its multinomial-logit form.

Formalizing it adds a machine-checked statement of the single-leg choice-based dynamic program over a general choice model, a precise account of the tie-breaking rule (the smallest maximiser), and machine-checked versions of the two marginal-value monotonicity facts that the paper cites from Talluri and van Ryzin rather than proves. To our knowledge none of these statements has been formalized in any proof assistant; the paper's proofs are informal.

Difficulty

The paper's proof is short, but two of its steps are not proved there. The marginal-value inequalities are imported from Talluri and van Ryzin, whose dynamic program optimises over all offer sets; here only the kkk revenue-ordered sets are available and the empty set is not, so those proofs have to be redone for this program, and the bound ΔJ≤rk\Delta\mathcal J\le r_kΔJ≤rk​ is needed to keep each stage's shifted problem well behaved. The claim ΔJ≤rk\Delta\mathcal J\le r_kΔJ≤rk​ itself is justified on the page only by an informal sentence.

The second subtlety is tie-breaking. The monotonicity is about the smallest optimal index. Several indices can be optimal at once, and the comparison of Lemma .1 transfers optimality of one index from one shift to another only through Lemma 2.1, that is, through the no-purchase case of the regularity axiom. Without that case the statement fails.

Formalization scope

  • Products form a finite nonempty type C; choice probabilities are P : C → Finset C → ℝ, defined on all pairs. The no-purchase option is not a product: its probability is the derived quantity noPurchase P S = 1 − ∑_{x∈S} P x S.
  • IsChoiceSystem P is axioms (i)–(iii); IsRegular P adds axiom (iv) for products and for the no-purchase option. Milestones 5–7 assume only axioms (i)–(iii), as the paper says suffices; Lemma .1, (16), (18) and the goal assume regularity and r>0r>0r>0.
  • Revenue levels use the paper's 1-based index: level r ℓ is rℓr_\ellrℓ​ for 1≤ℓ≤k1\le\ell\le k1≤ℓ≤k, topRevenue r is rkr_krk​, and roSet r ℓ is SℓS_\ellSℓ​ as a Finset. The paper's sorting of products (Sℓ={1,…,j(ℓ)}S_\ell=\{1,\dots,j(\ell)\}Sℓ​={1,…,j(ℓ)}) is notation only and is not used.
  • The dynamic program is defined by structural recursion on ttt; there is no stochastic process. Maxima over [k][k][k] are Finset.sup', and the minima defining ℓt∗(q)\ell^*_t(q)ℓt∗​(q) and min⁡L∗(δ)\min\mathcal L^*(\delta)minL∗(δ) are Finset.min' over sets proved nonempty.
  • ΔJt(q)\Delta\mathcal J_t(q)ΔJt​(q) is used only for q≥1q\ge 1q≥1; milestones are stated with t+1t+1t+1, q+1q+1q+1 in place of the paper's t−1t-1t−1, q−1q-1q−1 to avoid natural-number subtraction, which the goal keeps under its hypotheses q≥2q\ge 2q≥2, t≥2t\ge 2t≥2.

Formalizations that would trivialize the statement are ruled out: the dynamic program maximises over the kkk revenue-ordered sets only, never over all subsets (that is Talluri and van Ryzin's program); ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗ is the smallest maximiser, never the largest; and TTT, QQQ, kkk and the choice model are arbitrary, never fixed.

The definitions (regular choice model, revenue-ordered assortments, the restricted dynamic program) are reusable for other results on nested policies. Proofs of the cited Talluri–van Ryzin lemmas for this program are especially welcome, as they are the part the paper leaves to the literature.

Selected references

  • G. Berbeglia and G. Joret, Assortment Optimisation Under a General Discrete Choice Model: A Tight Analysis of Revenue-Ordered Assortments, arXiv:1606.01371v3, 2019; Algorithmica 82, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.01371
  • K. Talluri and G. van Ryzin, Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior, Management Science 50(1), 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • P. Rusmevichientong, D. Shmoys, C. Tong and H. Topaloglu, Assortment Optimization under the Multinomial Logit Model with Random Choice Parameters, Production and Operations Management 23(11), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.12191
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts II: With Price-Dependent Demand the Price-Contingent Buy-Back Gives the Retailer λΠ(q, p), as Revenue Sharing Does, and Coordinates Price and QuantityTextbook

Motivation

A retailer who controls both inventory and price can respond to a supply contract in two ways. A contract that induces the right order quantity at a fixed price may change the retailer's incentive to raise or lower that price. For a one-season supply chain, Cachon's chapter compares familiar contracts under price-dependent demand and identifies a price-contingent buy-back, also called a price-discount contract, that aligns both decisions. The mission concerns §6.3 of the author's January 2003 third draft, on printed pages 33–38. Those page and equation numbers belong to the draft and may differ from the typeset chapter.

Setting

One risk-neutral supplier and one risk-neutral retailer have full information before a single selling season. The retailer chooses a nonnegative stocking quantity qqq and a retail price ppp from an admissible price set PPP; the price stays fixed during the season. Demand has a probability law DpD_pDp​ that depends on ppp. Write F(y∣p)F(y\mid p)F(y∣p) for its distribution function, S(q,p)=Ep[min⁡(q,D)]S(q,p)=\mathbb E_p[\min(q,D)]S(q,p)=Ep​[min(q,D)] for expected sales, and μ(p)=Ep[D]\mu(p)=\mathbb E_p[D]μ(p)=Ep​[D] for mean demand. Demand is nonnegative, has a finite mean and, in the chapter's regular setting, its distribution function increases with demand level and has a positive price derivative at positive demand levels. Higher prices thus lower demand in the stochastic order used by the chapter. The price set is nonempty and open so an admissible price optimum has an interior first-order condition.

The supplier's unit cost is csc_scs​, the retailer's unit procurement cost is crc_rcr​, and c=cs+crc=c_s+c_rc=cs​+cr​ is total unit cost. Their goodwill penalties for unmet demand are gsg_sgs​ and grg_rgr​, with g=gs+grg=g_s+g_rg=gs​+gr​. An unsold unit has salvage value vvv at the retailer. The integrated channel's expected profit is

Π(q,p)=(p−v+g)S(q,p)−(c−v)q−gμ(p).\Pi(q,p)=(p-v+g)S(q,p)-(c-v)q-g\mu(p).Π(q,p)=(p−v+g)S(q,p)−(c−v)q−gμ(p).

A buy-back contract charges a wholesale price wbw_bwb​ for each ordered unit and pays the retailer bbb for each unsold unit. A revenue-sharing contract charges a wholesale price wrw_rwr​ and gives the retailer a fraction ϕ\phiϕ of sales and salvage revenue. In this section the supplier offers the terms and the retailer chooses (q,p)(q,p)(q,p). The profit formulas use the chapter's convention that a positive transfer goes from retailer to supplier.

Formalization targets

The goal is the price-contingent buy-back on p. 35, with λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1]:

b(p)=(1−λ)(p−v+g)−gs,wb(p)=λcs+(1−λ)(p+g−cr)−gs.b(p)=(1-\lambda)(p-v+g)-g_s,\qquad w_b(p)=\lambda c_s+(1-\lambda)(p+g-c_r)-g_s.b(p)=(1−λ)(p−v+g)−gs​,wb​(p)=λcs​+(1−λ)(p+g−cr​)−gs​.

In the chapter's zero-goodwill case, gr=gs=0g_r=g_s=0gr​=gs​=0, every feasible (q,p)(q,p)(q,p) then gives the retailer λΠ(q,p)\lambda\Pi(q,p)λΠ(q,p) and the supplier (1−λ)Π(q,p)(1-\lambda)\Pi(q,p)(1−λ)Π(q,p). The same retailer profit is obtained from revenue sharing with ϕ=λ\phi=\lambdaϕ=λ and wr=λ(c−v)−cr+λvw_r=\lambda(c-v)-c_r+\lambda vwr​=λ(c−v)−cr​+λv. Thus every existing maximizer (q∘,p∘)(q^\circ,p^\circ)(q∘,p∘) of the integrated profit maximizes each firm's profit under the contingent buy-back. At λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 the retailer is indifferent; at λ=1\lambda=1λ=1 the supplier is indifferent.

The milestones follow the chapter's printed claims in attack order:

  1. the integrated price condition (14), p. 34;
  2. the quantity-flexibility condition (15), p. 34: price coordination forces wq=v−crw_q=v-c_rwq​=v−cr​ or δ=0\delta=0δ=0;
  3. the fixed buy-back condition (16), p. 35: price coordination forces b=−gsb=-g_sb=−gs​ and then wb=cs−gsw_b=c_s-g_swb​=cs​−gs​;
  4. the linear price-contingent terms derived from (5)–(6), p. 35;
  5. the p. 36 profit split πr=λ(Π+gμ)−grμ\pi_r=\lambda(\Pi+g\mu)-g_r\muπr​=λ(Π+gμ)−gr​μ, πs=(1−λ)Π−(λg−gr)μ\pi_s=(1-\lambda)\Pi-(\lambda g-g_r)\muπs​=(1−λ)Π−(λg−gr​)μ, valid for all goodwill penalties as an identity;
  6. the zero-goodwill revenue-sharing price claim following (17), p. 36 (the milestone quotes its restatement in §6.3.2, p. 38);
  7. the price-contingent revenue-sharing parameters, p. 37;
  8. the quantity discount wd(q)w_d(q)wd​(q), pp. 37–38: with gs=0g_s=0gs​=0 it does not distort the price, and given p∘p^\circp∘ it makes q∘q^\circq∘ optimal for both firms.

Significance

The result identifies a contract schedule under which the same quantity-price pair is best for the integrated channel and for the two firms' reported profit functions. It also explains the relation between a buy-back whose terms vary with the chosen price and a revenue-sharing arrangement. In the zero-goodwill setting, both allocate every realized choice's expected channel profit in fixed shares. The general-goodwill identity shows the additional mean-demand terms that matter when the retailer controls price.

The source presents these results analytically; this mission asks for Lean proofs of the stated price and profit relationships. A published Prove2Me definition already supplies expected sales and mean demand for a single demand law, and the model here applies those functions to each price's law. The earlier open theorem RevShareCoord.Single.price_quantity_coordination (from Cachon and Lariviere's revenue-sharing paper) treats deterministic revenue and a simpler cost convention. It is an overlap in theme, but its statement does not include price-indexed demand, salvage value, retailer cost or the contingent buy-back terms, so it is not posed again here. The new model can support further price-dependent contract comparisons in the chapter.

Difficulty

The obstacle is that matching the retailer's quantity incentive at a fixed price can change the retailer's price incentive. The buy-back rate required by the fixed-price coordination equations depends on ppp; a fixed buy-back contract therefore does not generally align both choices. Revenue sharing with goodwill penalties has a similar price dependence. The integrated profit need not be concave or unimodal in (q,p)(q,p)(q,p), so a price first-order condition by itself does not establish coordination. The chapter assumes a finite integrated optimum exists and treats the price condition as necessary, not sufficient.

Formalization scope

Lean represents price-dependent demand as a family of probability measures on R\mathbb RR, one for each price in PPP. Each admissible law is supported on nonnegative demand, has no atom at zero and has an integrable identity function, so μ(p)\mu(p)μ(p) is a genuine finite expectation. Sales are defined by Ep[min⁡(q,D)]\mathbb E_p[\min(q,D)]Ep​[min(q,D)], using the published SupplyChainTheory_contracts definition; they are not defined by the equivalent CDF integral. The admissible decisions are exactly q≥0q\ge0q≥0 and p∈Pp\in Pp∈P. Unit costs and goodwill penalties are nonnegative, each admissible price exceeds c=cs+crc=c_s+c_rc=cs​+cr​, and v<cv<cv<c, as in the model of §6.2. The chapter's standing risk-neutrality and full-information conventions appear in the use of expected profit with the same demand laws available to both firms.

There is a material qualification. With price-dependent demand, μ(p)\mu(p)μ(p) may change with ppp. The printed first-order condition (14) and the p. 36 inference from πr=λ(Π+gμ)−grμ\pi_r=\lambda(\Pi+g\mu)-g_r\muπr​=λ(Π+gμ)−gr​μ to a joint optimum omit that effect when goodwill penalties are positive. Price first-order and optimality statements here therefore use gr=gs=0g_r=g_s=0gr​=gs​=0, a case explicitly discussed in the chapter; general-goodwill claims are limited to algebraic identities. The printed p. 36 equality of price derivatives under revenue sharing also misses its factor ϕ\phiϕ, which the formal statement restores. The contingent buy-back terms are defined by the chapter's linear formulas, not by a property that hard-codes coordination. The algebraic statement permits parameter values that may violate economic buy-back bounds such as 0≤b≤wb0\le b\le w_b0≤b≤wb​; those bounds need separate checks when selecting a contract.

Two first-order statements, (15) and (16), compare price derivatives; they take the derivative of expected sales in price as a hypothesis, and (15) also takes differentiation under the integral sign of ∫(1−δ)qqF(y∣p) dy\int_{(1-\delta)q}^{q}F(y\mid p)\,dy∫(1−δ)qq​F(y∣p)dy as a disclosed regularity hypothesis. For the quantity discount, the statement claims what the page shows, undistorted prices for each qqq and optimality of q∘q^\circq∘ given p∘p^\circp∘, not joint optimality of (q∘,p∘)(q^\circ,p^\circ)(q∘,p∘) for the retailer. The page's claim that revenue sharing with goodwill coordinates only with ϕ=gr/g\phi=g_r/gϕ=gr​/g is not stated, for the mean-demand reason above.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: no contract term is defined by the profit identity it should satisfy, the demand family cannot be replaced by a single law, and the optimal pair is a hypothesis about the integrated profit, not a chosen witness.

Reusable contributions include the price-indexed demand family, the expected-profit model with five contract types, and the price-maximizer statements. Proofs of the first-order milestones need Fermat's interior-extremum theorem on the open price set and, for (15), positivity of an interval integral; the identities need the expectation algebra of SSS and μ\muμ, including S(0,p)=0S(0,p)=0S(0,p)=0.

Selected references

  • Gérard P. Cachon, “Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts,” in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science, vol. 11, Supply Chain Management, North-Holland, 2003. DOI 10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7. Formalization source: author's third draft, January 2003, §6.3, pp. 33–38.
  • Fernando Bernstein and Awi Federgruen, “Decentralized supply chains with competing retailers under demand uncertainty,” Management Science 51(1), 2005 (the price-discount sharing contract; cited in the draft as a 2000 working paper). DOI 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0230
  • Nicholas C. Petruzzi and Maqbool Dada, “Pricing and the newsvendor problem: a review with extensions,” Operations Research 47(2), 1999, 183–194. DOI 10.1287/opre.47.2.183
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