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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

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Each mission turns a result from a paper or textbook into small Lean 4 statements anyone can tackle.

Campaigns (experimental)

See all campaigns →

Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.131121719190Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
9 provers on it18 of 19 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
17 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 16Formalized record
7 provers on it13 of 13 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 23Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
38 provers on it15 of 17 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions 1: Rescaling Along an Ω-Path Gives the Network ISS Lyapunov Function maxᵢ σᵢ⁻¹(Vᵢ(xᵢ))Research Paper

Motivation

Large engineered systems — power grids, chemical plants, logistics and communication networks — are usually modelled as many interacting subsystems. A stability certificate for the whole network is rarely available directly, but each subsystem can often be analysed on its own, treating the states of its neighbours as disturbances. Input-to-state stability (ISS), introduced by Sontag (Sontag 1989), is the robustness notion that makes this decomposition work: it bounds the state by a decaying function of the initial condition plus a gain of the input. A small-gain theorem states that if the gains by which the subsystems influence each other are "small" in a suitable sense, the interconnection is again ISS.

Timeline. Jiang, Teel and Praly proved a nonlinear small-gain theorem for two ISS systems in trajectory form (1994), and Jiang, Mareels and Wang gave its Lyapunov version for two subsystems (1996). Dashkovskiy, Rüffer and Wirth extended the trajectory version to nnn subsystems with the condition Γ≱id\Gamma\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γ≥id on a nonlinear gain operator (2007). The paper of this mission (arXiv:0901.1842, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010) gives the Lyapunov version for nnn subsystems with general monotone aggregation of the gains, and constructs the network's ISS Lyapunov function explicitly.

Setting

The network consists of n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 subsystems

Σi: x˙i=fi(x1,…,xn,u),xi∈RNi, u∈RM,\Sigma_i:\ \dot x_i=f_i(x_1,\dots,x_n,u),\qquad x_i\in\mathbb R^{N_i},\ u\in\mathbb R^M,Σi​: x˙i​=fi​(x1​,…,xn​,u),xi​∈RNi​, u∈RM,

with overall state x=(x1T,…,xnT)T∈RNx=(x_1^T,\dots,x_n^T)^T\in\mathbb R^Nx=(x1T​,…,xnT​)T∈RN and dynamics x˙=f(x,u)\dot x=f(x,u)x˙=f(x,u), f=(f1,…,fn)f=(f_1,\dots,f_n)f=(f1​,…,fn​). ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm.

A function γ:R+→R+\gamma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+γ:R+​→R+​ is of class K\mathcal KK if it is continuous, strictly increasing and γ(0)=0\gamma(0)=0γ(0)=0, and of class K∞\mathcal K_\inftyK∞​ if moreover unbounded. A positive definite function α:R+→R+\alpha:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+α:R+​→R+​ is continuous with α(r)=0\alpha(r)=0α(r)=0 only at r=0r=0r=0. A Lyapunov function candidate V:Rd→R+V:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R_+V:Rd→R+​ is continuous, satisfies ψ1(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2(∥x∥)\psi_1(\|x\|)\le V(x)\le\psi_2(\|x\|)ψ1​(∥x∥)≤V(x)≤ψ2​(∥x∥) for some ψ1,ψ2∈K∞\psi_1,\psi_2\in\mathcal K_\inftyψ1​,ψ2​∈K∞​, and is locally Lipschitz away from the origin.

A candidate VVV is an ISS Lyapunov function for x˙=f(x,u)\dot x=f(x,u)x˙=f(x,u) if there are γ∈K\gamma\in\mathcal Kγ∈K and a positive definite α\alphaα with

V(x)≥γ(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)V(x)\ge\gamma(\|u\|)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V(x)f(x,u)\le-\alpha(\|x\|)V(x)≥γ(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)

at every point of differentiability of VVV.

On R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​, v<wv<wv<w means vi<wiv_i<w_ivi​<wi​ for every iii. A monotone aggregation function (MAF) μ:R+m→R+\mu:\mathbb R^m_+\to\mathbb R_+μ:R+m​→R+​ is continuous, positive off the origin, strictly increasing for this strict order, and unbounded as ∥s∥→∞\|s\|\to\infty∥s∥→∞. Subsystem Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ has an ISS Lyapunov function ViV_iVi​ with gains γij∈K∞∪{0}\gamma_{ij}\in\mathcal K_\infty\cup\{0\}γij​∈K∞​∪{0}, γiu∈K∪{0}\gamma_{iu}\in\mathcal K\cup\{0\}γiu​∈K∪{0} and MAF μi\mu_iμi​ on R+n+1\mathbb R^{n+1}_+R+n+1​ if, wherever ViV_iVi​ is differentiable,

Vi(xi)≥μi(γi1(V1(x1)),…,γin(Vn(xn)),γiu(∥u∥)) ⟹ ∇Vi(xi)fi(x,u)≤−αi(∥xi∥).V_i(x_i)\ge\mu_i\big(\gamma_{i1}(V_1(x_1)),\dots,\gamma_{in}(V_n(x_n)),\gamma_{iu}(\|u\|)\big)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V_i(x_i)f_i(x,u)\le-\alpha_i(\|x_i\|).Vi​(xi​)≥μi​(γi1​(V1​(x1​)),…,γin​(Vn​(xn​)),γiu​(∥u∥)) ⟹ ∇Vi​(xi​)fi​(x,u)≤−αi​(∥xi​∥).

The diagonal gains vanish, γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0. The gain operators are

Γ‾μ(s,r)i=μi(γi1(s1),…,γin(sn),γiu(r)),Γμ(s)=Γ‾μ(s,0).\overline\Gamma_\mu(s,r)_i=\mu_i\big(\gamma_{i1}(s_1),\dots,\gamma_{in}(s_n),\gamma_{iu}(r)\big),\qquad\Gamma_\mu(s)=\overline\Gamma_\mu(s,0).Γμ​(s,r)i​=μi​(γi1​(s1​),…,γin​(sn​),γiu​(r)),Γμ​(s)=Γμ​(s,0).

An Ω-path with respect to Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​ is a continuous σ:R+→R+n\sigma:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R^n_+σ:R+​→R+n​ with every σi∈K∞\sigma_i\in\mathcal K_\inftyσi​∈K∞​, such that each σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ is locally Lipschitz on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), its derivative lies in [c,C][c,C][c,C], 0<c<C0<c<C0<c<C, at its points of differentiability in any compact K⊂(0,∞)K\subset(0,\infty)K⊂(0,∞) (constants depending on KKK only), and Γμ(σ(r))<σ(r)\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r))<\sigma(r)Γμ​(σ(r))<σ(r) for all r>0r>0r>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.3

Assume each ViV_iVi​ is an ISS Lyapunov function for Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ with gains Γ\GammaΓ, γiu\gamma_{iu}γiu​ and MAFs μi\mu_iμi​; σ\sigmaσ is an Ω-path with respect to Γμ\Gamma_\muΓμ​; φ∈K∞\varphi\in\mathcal K_\inftyφ∈K∞​ satisfies

Γ‾μ(σ(r),φ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0;\overline\Gamma_\mu(\sigma(r),\varphi(r))<\sigma(r)\qquad\forall r>0;Γμ​(σ(r),φ(r))<σ(r)∀r>0;

and each fif_ifi​ is continuous. Then

V(x)=max⁡i=1,…,nσi−1(Vi(xi))V(x)=\max_{i=1,\dots,n}\sigma_i^{-1}(V_i(x_i))V(x)=i=1,…,nmax​σi−1​(Vi​(xi​))

is an ISS Lyapunov function for the network, with gain φ−1\varphi^{-1}φ−1:

V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)V(x)\ge\varphi^{-1}(\|u\|)\ \Longrightarrow\ \nabla V(x)f(x,u)\le-\alpha(\|x\|)V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥) ⟹ ∇V(x)f(x,u)≤−α(∥x∥)

for a positive definite α\alphaα. The rate α\alphaα is existential and is not fixed by the statement.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof on pp. 14–15:

  1. VVV is a Lyapunov function candidate.
  2. The maximum rule (5.7) for Clarke generalized gradients.
  3. The chain of inequalities showing that the subsystem trigger holds strictly at every active index.
  4. The Clarke-gradient form (5.8) of the subsystem decrease.
  5. The chain rule for σi−1∘Vi\sigma_i^{-1}\circ V_iσi−1​∘Vi​, with multipliers bounded away from zero.
  6. Positivity of the rate: active blocks on a sphere stay away from the origin.
  7. The uniform decrease (5.9).

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.3 converts a small-gain condition into an explicit Lyapunov function for the network. Combined with the converse ISS Lyapunov theorem, it gives ISS of the interconnection, and with zero input it gives global asymptotic stability. It covers additive, maximum-type and multiplicative aggregation of gains, and it handles nnn subsystems without iterating a two-system result. A second main result of the paper (Theorem 5.2, a separate mission) supplies the Ω-path from the condition Γμ≱id\Gamma_\mu\not\ge\mathrm{id}Γμ​≥id. Together they reduce the stability of a network to a property of its gain operator.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper. As far as we know, no ISS notion, small-gain theorem or monotone aggregation framework has been machine-checked in Lean. This mission produces a Lean statement of the construction, and of its nonsmooth-analysis steps, against which a complete proof can be checked. It also corrects a misprint in the theorem's implication (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The function VVV is a maximum of rescaled functions and is not differentiable on the set where two indices are active, even when every ViV_iVi​ is smooth. The subsystem hypotheses only control derivatives at points where the corresponding ViV_iVi​ is differentiable. At a point where VVV is differentiable, the active ViV_iVi​ may not be. So the obvious argument — differentiate the active branch and apply (2.7) — fails, and the decrease must be transported through generalized gradients. A second obstacle is uniformity: the rate α\alphaα must depend on ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥ alone. This requires the lower derivative bound in the Ω-path definition and a compactness argument on spheres. Dropping the lower bound breaks the theorem, because σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ could flatten and remove the decrease.

Formalization scope

Blocks are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (N i)). The network state is the L2L^2L2 product PiLp 2 (the Euclidean norm, not the sup norm), and the input is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin M). Subsystems are indexed by Fin n (0-based) with n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Gains, MAFs, Ω-paths and rates live on ℝ≥0. Lyapunov functions are real-valued with an explicit nonnegativity clause. The strict order on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​ is a named predicate, not Lean's Pi <. The inverses σi−1\sigma_i^{-1}σi−1​ and φ−1\varphi^{-1}φ−1 are explicit arguments with both compositions the identity. Every derivative is guarded by a differentiability hypothesis. Clarke's generalized gradient (2.5) is the published ClarkeGradients.Shared.generalizedGradient on the blocks, and the same definition restated on a general Hilbert space for RN\mathbb R^NRN and R\mathbb RR.

Implicit hypotheses made explicit:

  • Continuity of every fif_ifi​. It is the regularity behind the equivalence of the derivative form (2.4) and the Clarke form (2.6) of the decrease condition, which the proof uses.
  • γii≡0\gamma_{ii}\equiv0γii​≡0. The paper's convention.
  • Compatibility of Γ\GammaΓ and μ\muμ. Remark 2.6, the standing assumption from p. 8 on; it imposes nothing on a zero row of Γ\GammaΓ.

Corrected statement. The printed implication (5.5) has the trigger V(x)≥max⁡iφ−1(γiu(∥u∥))V(x)\ge\max_i\varphi^{-1}(\gamma_{iu}(\|u\|))V(x)≥maxi​φ−1(γiu​(∥u∥)). With Γ‾μ\overline\Gamma_\muΓμ​ as defined in (2.9), and as the paper's corollaries use it, that implication is false. A counterexample is one subsystem x˙=−x+u/6\dot x=-x+u/6x˙=−x+u/6 with V1=∣x∣V_1=|x|V1​=∣x∣, γ1u(s)=s/10\gamma_{1u}(s)=s/10γ1u​(s)=s/10, μ1(a,b)=a+2b\mu_1(a,b)=a+2bμ1​(a,b)=a+2b and σ=φ=id\sigma=\varphi=\mathrm{id}σ=φ=id, at x=1x=1x=1, u=10u=10u=10. The proof's chain of inequalities writes φ(r)\varphi(r)φ(r) where (2.9) gives γiu(φ(r))\gamma_{iu}(\varphi(r))γiu​(φ(r)). The goal keeps (2.9) and uses the trigger V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥)V(x)\ge\varphi^{-1}(\|u\|)V(x)≥φ−1(∥u∥), under which the proof closes.

The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable. An example is n=2n=2n=2 with Vi(xi)=∥xi∥V_i(x_i)=\|x_i\|Vi​(xi​)=∥xi​∥, μi=max⁡\mu_i=\maxμi​=max, γ12=γ21=s/4\gamma_{12}=\gamma_{21}=s/4γ12​=γ21​=s/4, γiu=s/2\gamma_{iu}=s/2γiu​=s/2, σ(r)=(r,r)\sigma(r)=(r,r)σ(r)=(r,r), φ=id\varphi=\mathrm{id}φ=id and dynamics fi=−xif_i=-x_ifi​=−xi​. The conclusion is a decrease inequality at the points of differentiability of VVV for an existential positive definite rate, so it cannot be met by a vacuous choice: α\alphaα must be positive away from zero. Trajectory-level ISS (Theorem 2.3, cited by the paper) and the corollaries that conclude ISS are out of scope.

Reusable infrastructure: comparison classes, monotone aggregation functions, gain operators and Ω-paths (shared with the Ω-path mission), and the maximum and chain rules for Clarke gradients. Proofs of the nonsmooth calculus milestones are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • S. N. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, Small Gain Theorems for Large Scale Systems and Construction of ISS Lyapunov Functions, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(6), 2010; preprint arXiv:0901.1842v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/0901.1842
  • S. Dashkovskiy, B. S. Rüffer, F. R. Wirth, An ISS small gain theorem for general networks, Math. Control Signals Systems 19, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00498-007-0014-8
  • Z.-P. Jiang, A. R. Teel, L. Praly, Small-gain theorem for ISS systems and applications, Math. Control Signals Systems 7, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01211469
  • Z.-P. Jiang, I. M. Y. Mareels, Y. Wang, A Lyapunov formulation of the nonlinear small-gain theorem for interconnected ISS systems, Automatica 32(8), 1996. https://doi.org/10.1016/0005-1098(96)00051-9
  • E. D. Sontag, Smooth stabilization implies coprime factorization, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34(4), 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.28018
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
11 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantitative Stability in Stochastic Programming: The Method of Probability Metrics 2: Linear Two-Stage Programs Are Lipschitz Stable in the Fortet–Mourier Metric ζ₂Research Paper

Why stability of two-stage programs matters

A linear two-stage stochastic program with fixed recourse chooses a here-and-now decision xxx before a random vector ξ\xiξ is observed, and pays a recourse cost afterwards. It is the basic model of stochastic programming, used in capacity planning, energy and supply-chain models. In practice the distribution μ\muμ of ξ\xiξ is never known exactly: it is estimated from data, replaced by a discrete scenario approximation, or perturbed for robustness. The question is how much the optimal value and the optimal decisions can move when μ\muμ is replaced by a nearby ν\nuν, and in which distance between probability measures "nearby" should be measured.

Rachev and Römisch (Math. Oper. Res. 27(4), 2002, doi:10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304; the mission cites the authors' preprint from edoc.hu-berlin.de) answer this with the method of probability metrics: they derive from the structure of the integrand a canonical distance on measures for each class of models. For linear two-stage programs the canonical distance is the Fortet–Mourier metric of order 2.

Timeline. Robinson and Wets (1987) studied qualitative stability of two-stage programs with respect to weak convergence of measures. Walkup and Wets (1969) had earlier established the piecewise-bilinear structure of the second-stage value function used here. Römisch and Schultz (1991) proved a quantitative stability result for two-stage programs with complete recourse in the Wasserstein metric W2W_2W2​. The present paper (published 2002) replaces complete recourse by relatively complete recourse plus dual feasibility, and W2W_2W2​ by the metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, which it bounds by a multiple of W2W_2W2​ (p. 13).

Setting

Let X⊆RmX\subseteq\mathbb R^mX⊆Rm be a nonempty polyhedron and Ξ⊆Rs\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^sΞ⊆Rs a polyhedron. Fix c∈Rmc\in\mathbb R^mc∈Rm, an (r,m‾)(r,\overline m)(r,m)-matrix WWW, and data q(ξ)∈Rm‾q(\xi)\in\mathbb R^{\overline m}q(ξ)∈Rm, h(ξ)∈Rrh(\xi)\in\mathbb R^rh(ξ)∈Rr and an (r,m)(r,m)(r,m)-matrix T(ξ)T(\xi)T(ξ) depending affine linearly on ξ\xiξ. The second-stage value is

Φ(u,t)=inf⁡{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},\Phi(u,t)=\inf\{uy:\ Wy=t,\ y\ge0\},Φ(u,t)=inf{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},

with pos⁡W={Wy:y≥0}\operatorname{pos}W=\{Wy:y\ge0\}posW={Wy:y≥0} and D={u:{z:W′z≤u}≠∅}D=\{u:\{z:W'z\le u\}\ne\emptyset\}D={u:{z:W′z≤u}=∅}. The integrand is f0(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x)f_0(\xi,x)=cx+\Phi(q(\xi),h(\xi)-T(\xi)x)f0​(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x) when h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise. For a Borel probability measure ν\nuν on Ξ\XiΞ the problem is

min⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ):x∈X},\min\Big\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi):x\in X\Big\},min{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ):x∈X},

with optimal value v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) and solution set S(ν)S(\nu)S(ν). Two assumptions are made: (A1) h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D for all (ξ,x)∈Ξ×X(\xi,x)\in\Xi\times X(ξ,x)∈Ξ×X; (A2) μ\muμ has a finite second moment.

The Fortet–Mourier metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ on P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_2(\Xi)P2​(Ξ), the probability measures on Ξ\XiΞ with finite second moment, is

ζ2(μ,ν)=sup⁡f∈F2(Ξ)∣∫Ξf dμ−∫Ξf dν∣,F2(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~)∣≤max⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥}.\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)=\sup_{f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)}\Big|\int_\Xi f\,d\mu-\int_\Xi f\,d\nu\Big|,\quad \mathcal F_2(\Xi)=\{f:|f(\xi)-f(\tilde\xi)|\le\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|\}.ζ2​(μ,ν)=f∈F2​(Ξ)sup​​∫Ξ​fdμ−∫Ξ​fdν​,F2​(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~​)∣≤max{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥}.

For an open bounded U⊇S(μ)\mathcal U\supseteq S(\mu)U⊇S(μ), the growth function is ψ(τ)=inf⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩cl⁡U}\psi(\tau)=\inf\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\mu(d\xi)-v(\mu): d(x,S(\mu))\ge\tau,\ x\in X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U\}ψ(τ)=inf{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩clU}, and Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η)\Psi(\eta)=\eta+\psi^{-1}(2\eta)Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η) with ψ−1(t)=sup⁡{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}\psi^{-1}(t)=\sup\{\tau\ge0:\psi(\tau)\le t\}ψ−1(t)=sup{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 13)

Under (A1), (A2), S(μ)≠∅S(\mu)\ne\emptysetS(μ)=∅ and U\mathcal UU an open bounded neighbourhood of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ), there are L>0L>0L>0 and δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that for every ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ) with ζ2(μ,ν)<δ\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)<\deltaζ2​(μ,ν)<δ:

∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤L ζ2(μ,ν),∅≠S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(L ζ2(μ,ν)) B.|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|\le L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu),\qquad \emptyset\ne S(\nu)\subseteq S(\mu)+\Psi(L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu))\,\mathbb B.∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤Lζ2​(μ,ν),∅=S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(Lζ2​(μ,ν))B.

The constants are existential, so the goal does not depend on any particular estimate of them.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 11): Φ\PhiΦ is finite and continuous on the polyhedral cone D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, piecewise of the form Cju⋅tC_ju\cdot tCj​u⋅t on finitely many polyhedral cones with disjoint interiors, convex in ttt and concave in uuu.
  2. Proposition 3.2 (p. 11): f0f_0f0​ is a normal convex integrand, and for ∥x∥≤r\|x\|\le r∥x∥≤r it satisfies ∣f0(ξ,x)−f0(ξ~,x)∣≤Lrmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥|f_0(\xi,x)-f_0(\tilde\xi,x)|\le Lr\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|∣f0​(ξ,x)−f0​(ξ~​,x)∣≤Lrmax{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥, a Lipschitz bound in xxx with factor L^max⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}\hat L\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}L^max{1,∥ξ∥2}, and ∣f0(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}|f_0(\xi,x)|\le Kr\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}∣f0​(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax{1,∥ξ∥2}.
  3. PFU⊇P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}\supseteq\mathcal P_2(\Xi)PFU​​⊇P2​(Ξ) (p. 13): every measure with finite second moment satisfies the integrability conditions of the general theory.
  4. Corollary 2.8 (p. 10): the general Lipschitz stability theorem in the metric ζg\zeta_gζg​ for convex models whose integrands lie, up to a factor LLL, in the class Fg\mathcal F_gFg​.

Significance

The theorem says that, under the two natural well-posedness conditions of linear recourse models, optimal values are Lipschitz continuous and solution sets move by at most Ψ(Lζ2)\Psi(L\zeta_2)Ψ(Lζ2​), where ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ only sees test functions with the local Lipschitz growth of the integrand. Since ζ2≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2\zeta_2\le(1+\int\|\xi\|^2d\mu+\int\|\xi\|^2d\nu)^{1/2}W_2ζ2​≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2​, the result contains the earlier W2W_2W2​ stability theorem.

The results are proved in the paper, except Lemma 3.1, which it cites from Walkup and Wets (1969). None of them is formalized in Mathlib or on Prove2Me. A formalization would provide a checked model of the two-stage recourse function, the Fortet–Mourier metrics, and an end-to-end quantitative stability theorem for stochastic programs, none of which exist in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds ∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣ by sup⁡x∣∫f0(⋅,x) d(μ−ν)∣\sup_x|\int f_0(\cdot,x)\,d(\mu-\nu)|supx​∣∫f0​(⋅,x)d(μ−ν)∣ and then by Lζ2L\zeta_2Lζ2​. Two steps fail. First, the supremum ranges over all of XXX, which may be unbounded, while f0(⋅,x)/Lf_0(\cdot,x)/Lf0​(⋅,x)/L lies in F2\mathcal F_2F2​ only for xxx in a bounded set; the argument must localize to X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU and then show, using convexity, that for ν\nuν close to μ\muμ the localized and global problems coincide. Second, the Lipschitz estimate in ξ\xiξ for f0f_0f0​ requires the piecewise-bilinear structure of Φ\PhiΦ (Lemma 3.1) and a chaining argument across the polyhedral pieces of Ξ\XiΞ; the integrand is not differentiable.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The paper never fixes its norm and all its constants are existential, so the Euclidean norm is a faithful instance. Second-stage vectors u,t,y,zu,t,y,zu,t,y,z are coordinate vectors Fin k → ℝ; index sets are 0-based.
  • A polyhedron is a finite intersection of closed half-spaces. The standing assumptions are: XXX a nonempty polyhedron, Ξ\XiΞ a polyhedron, q,h,Tq,h,Tq,h,T affine maps.
  • A measure in P(Ξ)\mathcal P(\Xi)P(Ξ) is a Borel probability measure on Rs\mathbb R^sRs with ν(Ξc)=0\nu(\Xi^c)=0ν(Ξc)=0; ∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ)\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi)∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ) is the extended-real integral of the published DupacovaWets.Consistency.expect over ν\nuν restricted to Ξ\XiΞ.
  • Φ\PhiΦ, f0f_0f0​, vvv and ψ\psiψ are extended-real infima (+∞+\infty+∞ over an empty set); "min" in ψ\psiψ is read as an infimum. ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, ζg\zeta_gζg​, ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 and Ψ\PsiΨ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the distance to a set is the extended distance (+∞+\infty+∞ to ∅\emptyset∅).
  • To rule out trivializations: every value bound states that v(μ)v(\mu)v(μ), v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) are finite before comparing them, so the extended-real arithmetic ∞−∞\infty-\infty∞−∞ cannot make it vacuous; in ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ a test function that is not integrable for both measures contributes +∞+\infty+∞, never a junk 000.
  • Disclosed readings: Proposition 3.2 leaves its radius rrr unquantified; it is stated with the constants first and then every r≥1r\ge1r≥1. Lemma 3.1's "pos⁡W×D\operatorname{pos}W\times DposW×D" is read as D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, in the order of Φ\PhiΦ's arguments. Corollary 2.8 adds μ,ν∈PFU(Ξ)\mu,\nu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\Xi)μ,ν∈PFU​​(Ξ), an assumption of Theorem 2.2 that its proof invokes; Theorem 3.3 needs no such addition, because milestone 3 supplies it.
  • Needed infrastructure: LP duality and the Walkup–Wets decomposition of Φ\PhiΦ; normal integrands and measurability of their infima; integrability under moment conditions; the general stability theorems (Theorems 2.2–2.3 of the paper) for d=0d=0d=0. The definitions of ζp\zeta_pζp​, Fg\mathcal F_gFg​ and normal integrands are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions toward any milestone, and proofs of the auxiliary facts (for example, that every f∈F2(Ξ)f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)f∈F2​(Ξ) is integrable for ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ)), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Mathematics of Operations Research 27(4) (2002) 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304 (cited here from the authors' preprint, edoc.hu-berlin.de)
  • D. W. Walkup, R. J-B Wets, Lifting projections of convex polyhedra, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 28 (1969) 465–475 (the paper's [55]).
  • S. M. Robinson, R. J-B Wets, Stability in two-stage stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 25 (1987) 1409–1416 (the paper's [37]).
  • W. Römisch, R. Schultz, Stability analysis for stochastic programs, Annals of Operations Research 30 (1991) 241–266 (the paper's [40]).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J-B Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer (the paper's [38]; normal integrands, Chapter 14).
  • S. T. Rachev, Probability Metrics and the Stability of Stochastic Models, Wiley, Chichester 1991 (the paper's [32]).
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Is Network Traffic Approximated by Stable Lévy Motion or Fractional Brownian Motion? 4: Superposed ON/OFF Input Under Fast Growth Converges in C[0,∞) to Fractional Brownian MotionResearch Paper

Why heavy-tailed input matters

Measurements of Ethernet and Internet traffic in the 1990s showed that cumulative traffic is self-similar and long-range dependent: correlations of the input rate decay so slowly that they are not summable, and fluctuations at large time scales do not average out the way Poisson-type models predict (Leland et al. 1994). A widely accepted explanation is that the lengths of individual transmissions (file sizes, session durations) are heavy tailed, with infinite variance. Queueing and capacity-planning calculations then depend on which stochastic process approximates the cumulative input over long horizons.

Two approximations had been proposed: fractional Brownian motion, a Gaussian self-similar process with dependent increments, and α-stable Lévy motion, a heavy-tailed process with independent increments. Mikosch, Resnick, Rootzén and Stegeman (Ann. Appl. Probab. 12 (2002) 23–68) showed that both arise from the same models and that the answer depends on how fast the number of sources grows relative to the time scale. This mission formalizes their Gaussian answer for the superposition of ON/OFF sources: Theorem 4.

  • 1995–1997: Willinger, Taqqu, Sherman and Wilson derive fractional Brownian motion from superposed ON/OFF sources with heavy-tailed periods, as an iterated limit: first the number of sources M→∞M\to\inftyM→∞, then the time scale T→∞T\to\inftyT→∞, and for finite-dimensional distributions only.
  • 1998: Heath, Resnick and Samorodnitsky (Math. Oper. Res. 23) give the exact decay of the covariance of a single stationary ON/OFF source.
  • 2002: Mikosch, Resnick, Rootzén and Stegeman let MMM and TTT grow together and show that fast growth gives fractional Brownian motion as a functional limit in C[0,∞)\mathbb C[0,\infty)C[0,∞), while slow growth gives stable Lévy motion.

The superposed ON/OFF model

A single ON/OFF source alternates between ON-periods, during which it sends work at rate 111, and silent OFF-periods. The ON-periods X1,X2,…X_1,X_2,\dotsX1​,X2​,… are iid with law FonF_{\mathrm{on}}Fon​ and the OFF-periods Yoff,Y1,Y2,…Y_{\mathrm{off}},Y_1,Y_2,\dotsYoff​,Y1​,Y2​,… iid with law FoffF_{\mathrm{off}}Foff​, both on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), all independent, with means μon\mu_{\mathrm{on}}μon​, μoff\mu_{\mathrm{off}}μoff​ and μ=μon+μoff\mu=\mu_{\mathrm{on}}+\mu_{\mathrm{off}}μ=μon​+μoff​. The tails are regularly varying: for x>0x>0x>0,

Fˉon(x)=x−αLon(x),Fˉoff(x)=x−αoffLoff(x),1<α<αoff<2,\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)=x^{-\alpha}L_{\mathrm{on}}(x),\qquad \bar F_{\mathrm{off}}(x)=x^{-\alpha_{\mathrm{off}}}L_{\mathrm{off}}(x),\qquad 1<\alpha<\alpha_{\mathrm{off}}<2,Fˉon​(x)=x−αLon​(x),Fˉoff​(x)=x−αoff​Loff​(x),1<α<αoff​<2,

with Lon,LoffL_{\mathrm{on}},L_{\mathrm{off}}Lon​,Loff​ slowly varying (L(cx)/L(x)→1L(cx)/L(x)\to1L(cx)/L(x)→1 for every c>0c>0c>0). So both periods have finite mean and infinite variance, and the ON-periods have the heavier tail.

To make the source stationary, a delay T0=B(Xon(0)+Yoff)+(1−B)Yoff(0)T_0=B(X^{(0)}_{\mathrm{on}}+Y_{\mathrm{off}})+(1-B)Y^{(0)}_{\mathrm{off}}T0​=B(Xon(0)​+Yoff​)+(1−B)Yoff(0)​ is used, where BBB is Bernoulli with P(B=1)=μon/μP(B=1)=\mu_{\mathrm{on}}/\muP(B=1)=μon​/μ and Xon(0),Yoff(0)X^{(0)}_{\mathrm{on}},Y^{(0)}_{\mathrm{off}}Xon(0)​,Yoff(0)​ have the integrated-tail laws F(0)(x)=μF−1∫0xFˉ(s) dsF^{(0)}(x)=\mu_F^{-1}\int_0^x\bar F(s)\,dsF(0)(x)=μF−1​∫0x​Fˉ(s)ds. With Tn=T0+∑i=1n(Xi+Yi)T_n=T_0+\sum_{i=1}^n(X_i+Y_i)Tn​=T0​+∑i=1n​(Xi​+Yi​) the source's activity is

Wt=B 1[0,Xon(0))(t)+∑n≥01[Tn,Tn+Xn+1)(t),t≥0,W_t=B\,\mathbf 1_{[0,X^{(0)}_{\mathrm{on}})}(t)+\sum_{n\ge0}\mathbf 1_{[T_n,T_n+X_{n+1})}(t),\qquad t\ge0,Wt​=B1[0,Xon(0)​)​(t)+n≥0∑​1[Tn​,Tn​+Xn+1​)​(t),t≥0,

a stationary process with EWt=μon/μEW_t=\mu_{\mathrm{on}}/\muEWt​=μon​/μ.

The TTT-th model superposes M=M(T)M=M(T)M=M(T) independent copies W(1),…,W(M)W^{(1)},\dots,W^{(M)}W(1),…,W(M), where MMM is integer valued, non-decreasing and M(T)→∞M(T)\to\inftyM(T)→∞. The cumulative input is A(t)=∫0t∑m=1MWs(m) dsA(t)=\int_0^t\sum_{m=1}^MW^{(m)}_s\,dsA(t)=∫0t​∑m=1M​Ws(m)​ds. With the quantile b(t)=(1/Fˉon)←(t)b(t)=(1/\bar F_{\mathrm{on}})^{\leftarrow}(t)b(t)=(1/Fˉon​)←(t), the fast growth condition is

Condition 2:lim⁡T→∞b(MT)T=∞,\text{Condition 2:}\qquad \lim_{T\to\infty}\frac{b(MT)}{T}=\infty,Condition 2:T→∞lim​Tb(MT)​=∞,

equivalently MTFˉon(T)→∞MT\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(T)\to\inftyMTFˉon​(T)→∞. The normalisation and limit constants are

dT=[T3−αLon(T)M]1/2,σ02=2μoff2Γ(2−α)/(α−1)μ3Γ(4−α),H=3−α2∈(12,1).d_T=[T^{3-\alpha}L_{\mathrm{on}}(T)M]^{1/2},\qquad \sigma_0^2=\frac{2\mu_{\mathrm{off}}^2\Gamma(2-\alpha)/(\alpha-1)}{\mu^3\Gamma(4-\alpha)},\qquad H=\frac{3-\alpha}{2}\in(\tfrac12,1).dT​=[T3−αLon​(T)M]1/2,σ02​=μ3Γ(4−α)2μoff2​Γ(2−α)/(α−1)​,H=23−α​∈(21​,1).

A standard fractional Brownian motion BHB_HBH​ is a mean-zero Gaussian process on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with continuous paths and Cov(BH(t),BH(s))=12(t2H+s2H−∣t−s∣2H)\mathrm{Cov}(B_H(t),B_H(s))=\tfrac12(t^{2H}+s^{2H}-|t-s|^{2H})Cov(BH​(t),BH​(s))=21​(t2H+s2H−∣t−s∣2H).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

If Condition 2 holds, then

A(T⋅)−TMμ−1μon(⋅)dT →d σ0BH(⋅)weakly in C[0,∞).\frac{A(T\cdot)-TM\mu^{-1}\mu_{\mathrm{on}}(\cdot)}{d_T}\ \xrightarrow{d}\ \sigma_0B_H(\cdot)\qquad\text{weakly in }\mathbb C[0,\infty).dT​A(T⋅)−TMμ−1μon​(⋅)​ d​ σ0​BH​(⋅)weakly in C[0,∞).

Intermediate targets

In the order of the paper's argument: the mean EWt=μon/μEW_t=\mu_{\mathrm{on}}/\muEWt​=μon​/μ (p. 27); the covariance decay (2.5) γW(h)∼μoff2(α−1)μ3h−(α−1)Lon(h)\gamma_W(h)\sim\frac{\mu_{\mathrm{off}}^2}{(\alpha-1)\mu^3}h^{-(\alpha-1)}L_{\mathrm{on}}(h)γW​(h)∼(α−1)μ3μoff2​​h−(α−1)Lon​(h); Condition 2 ⇔T=o(dT)\Leftrightarrow T=o(d_T)⇔T=o(dT​) (p. 61); the variance asymptotic (7.1) Var(GT)∼σ02T3−αLon(T)\mathrm{Var}(G_T)\sim\sigma_0^2T^{3-\alpha}L_{\mathrm{on}}(T)Var(GT​)∼σ02​T3−αLon​(T) for GT=∫0T(Wu−EWu) duG_T=\int_0^T(W_u-EW_u)\,duGT​=∫0T​(Wu​−EWu​)du; Lemma 13, the one-dimensional limit dT−1∑mGTt(m)→N(0,σ02t3−α)d_T^{-1}\sum_mG^{(m)}_{Tt}\to N(0,\sigma_0^2t^{3-\alpha})dT−1​∑m​GTt(m)​→N(0,σ02​t3−α); the covariance limit (7.4); and the second-moment bound E∣dT−1∑mGTu(m)∣2≤c u1+εE|d_T^{-1}\sum_mG^{(m)}_{Tu}|^2\le c\,u^{1+\varepsilon}E∣dT−1​∑m​GTu(m)​∣2≤cu1+ε behind tightness (p. 63). (2.5) and (7.1) are cited by the paper from Heath–Resnick–Samorodnitsky and Willinger–Taqqu–Sherman–Wilson; they are stated here as the paper states them.

Significance

Theorem 4 justifies fractional Brownian motion as the model of aggregate traffic from many heavy-tailed sources in a single, simultaneous limit, replacing the iterated limit of earlier work, and it upgrades finite-dimensional convergence to weak convergence of paths. Functionals of the path, such as the supremum of A(Tt)−ctA(Tt)-ctA(Tt)−ct that governs the buffer content of a fluid queue, therefore inherit Gaussian approximations. Together with Theorem 2 it shows that a single growth condition on MMM decides between Gaussian and stable approximations.

The result is proved in the paper; it is not formalized anywhere. A formalization adds a machine-checked statement of the theorem and reusable developments of regularly varying functions, the stationary alternating renewal process, fractional Brownian motion, and convergence in C[0,∞)\mathbb C[0,\infty)C[0,∞).

Difficulty

The obvious route is a central limit theorem for ∑mGTt(m)\sum_{m}G^{(m)}_{Tt}∑m​GTt(m)​, a sum of MMM iid bounded terms; but the number of terms and their distribution change with TTT, so one needs a triangular-array limit theorem whose variance condition rests on the exact asymptotic (7.1). That asymptotic in turn needs the covariance decay (2.5) of a single stationary source, which requires renewal theory for the alternating process with infinite-variance periods. Convergence of finite-dimensional distributions alone does not give the theorem: tightness in C[0,K]\mathbb C[0,K]C[0,K] needs a moment bound on increments that is uniform in TTT for small time lags, which requires Potter-type bounds for the regularly varying function x↦EGx2x\mapsto EG_x^2x↦EGx2​.

Formalization scope

  • Time and models. T→∞T\to\inftyT→∞ along atTop on R\mathbb RR. Each model TTT has its own probability space carrying M(T)M(T)M(T) independent sources; the theorems hold for every such family. Lean's X n, Y n are the paper's Xn+1X_{n+1}Xn+1​, Yn+1Y_{n+1}Yn+1​ and Lean's sources 0,…,M−10,\dots,M-10,…,M−1 are the paper's 1,…,M1,\dots,M1,…,M. Time in the normalised process runs over R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​.
  • Standing hypotheses. Fon,FoffF_{\mathrm{on}},F_{\mathrm{off}}Fon​,Foff​ are probability measures on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) (non-negativity is implicit in "lengths"); (2.1) is stated as "x↦xαFˉ(x)x\mapsto x^{\alpha}\bar F(x)x↦xαFˉ(x) is slowly varying"; 1<α<αoff<21<\alpha<\alpha_{\mathrm{off}}<21<α<αoff​<2; MMM non-decreasing with M→∞M\to\inftyM→∞ (§3.2); Condition 2 where §7 assumes it. No other hypothesis is added.
  • Junk values ruled out. bbb is an infimum over {x>0:tFˉon(x)≤1}\{x>0:t\bar F_{\mathrm{on}}(x)\le1\}{x>0:tFˉon​(x)≤1}, never a division by zero; the series defining WtW_tWt​ has non-negative terms and fails to converge only on a null event; equalities of laws come with measurability. The limit is pinned completely: Gaussian, mean zero, the covariance above with σH=1\sigma_H=1σH​=1 and H=(3−α)/2H=(3-\alpha)/2H=(3−α)/2, continuous paths, multiplied by σ0\sigma_0σ0​. Fidi convergence in place of the functional limit, a free scale in the limit, or a limit identified only by its marginals would each be a different, weaker theorem.
  • Weak convergence is stated in coupling form: for every sequence Tn→∞T_n\to\inftyTn​→∞ there are one probability space, copies YnY_nYn​ with continuous paths of the laws of the normalised processes at TnT_nTn​, and a standard fractional Brownian motion Y′Y'Y′ such that Yn→σ0Y′Y_n\to\sigma_0Y'Yn​→σ0​Y′ uniformly on every [0,K][0,K][0,K] almost surely. On the Polish space C[0,∞)\mathbb C[0,\infty)C[0,∞) this is equivalent to weak convergence.
  • Infrastructure needed: Karamata's theorem and Potter bounds; the stationary alternating renewal process and its covariance asymptotics; a triangular-array central limit theorem; existence of fractional Brownian motion; a moment criterion for tightness in C[0,K]\mathbb C[0,K]C[0,K]. The regular-variation and path-space material is reusable well beyond this mission; contributions of any of these pieces, and of any milestone, are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Mikosch, S. Resnick, H. Rootzén and A. Stegeman, Is network traffic approximated by stable Lévy motion or fractional Brownian motion?, Ann. Appl. Probab. 12(1) (2002), 23–68. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015961155
  • D. Heath, S. Resnick and G. Samorodnitsky, Heavy tails and long range dependence in on/off processes and associated fluid models, Math. Oper. Res. 23 (1998), 145–165. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.1.145
  • W. Willinger, M. S. Taqqu, R. Sherman and D. V. Wilson, Self-similarity through high-variability: statistical analysis of Ethernet LAN traffic at the source level, IEEE/ACM Trans. Networking 5 (1997), 71–86. https://doi.org/10.1109/90.554723
  • W. E. Leland, M. S. Taqqu, W. Willinger and D. V. Wilson, On the self-similar nature of Ethernet traffic (extended version), IEEE/ACM Trans. Networking 2 (1994), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1109/90.282603
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie and J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721434
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, 1968 (Theorem 12.3, moment criterion for tightness).
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Designing a Call Center with Impatient Customers II: In the Halfin–Whitt Regime the Scaled Erlang-A Queue Converges to a Diffusion with Piecewise-Linear DriftResearch Paper

Motivation

Telephone call centers are large service systems: hundreds of agents answer callers who wait in a queue and hang up when their patience runs out. Staffing them is a trade-off between the cost of agents and the quality of service, and in large centers both the efficiency (agents busy almost all the time) and the service level (most callers answered almost immediately) can be high at once. Garnett, Mandelbaum and Reiman (M&SOM 4(3), 2002) study the simplest model that captures customer abandonment, the Erlang-A or M/M/N+MM/M/N+MM/M/N+M queue, and derive approximations for it in the regime where the number of agents is large.

Their Theorem 2 is the process-level justification of these approximations: the queue-length process, centred at the number of agents and scaled by its square root, converges to a one-dimensional diffusion. The steady-state performance formulas of the paper (delay probability, abandonment probability, waiting times) are computed from this diffusion and its stationary law.

Timeline.

  • Halfin and Whitt (1981) proved the corresponding limit for the M/M/NM/M/NM/M/N queue without abandonment, in the regime N(1−ρN)→β\sqrt N(1-\rho_N) \to \betaN​(1−ρN​)→β with β>0\beta > 0β>0 (Oper. Res. 29(3)). The limit is a diffusion with drift −μ(β+x)-\mu(\beta + x)−μ(β+x) below 000 and constant drift −μβ-\mu\beta−μβ above.
  • Fleming, Stolyar and Simon (1994) conjectured the limit with abandonment, with a slightly different centering, and proved the weak limit of the stationary distributions.
  • Garnett, Mandelbaum and Reiman (2002) state the process limit for 0<θ<∞0 < \theta < \infty0<θ<∞ as Theorem 2, with the extensions θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 and θ=∞\theta = \inftyθ=∞ as Theorem 2* in Appendix C.

Setting

Fix a service rate μ>0\mu > 0μ>0. For each N≥1N \ge 1N≥1 the NNN-th system has NNN statistically identical agents, Poisson arrivals of rate λN>0\lambda_N > 0λN​>0, exponential service times of rate μ\muμ, an unlimited waiting room served first come, first served, and exponential patience of rate θN>0\theta_N > 0θN​>0 for every caller. A caller whose wait in queue reaches their patience abandons and does not return. The number of callers in the system, QN(t)Q_N(t)QN​(t), is a birth–death process on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} with birth rate λN\lambda_NλN​ and death rate min⁡(k,N)μ+(k−N)+θN\min(k, N)\mu + (k-N)^+\theta_Nmin(k,N)μ+(k−N)+θN​ in state kkk. Its initial value QN(0)Q_N(0)QN​(0) is an arbitrary random variable.

The traffic intensity is ρN=λN/(Nμ)\rho_N = \lambda_N/(N\mu)ρN​=λN​/(Nμ). The centred and scaled process is

qN(t)=QN(t)−NN,t≥0.q_N(t) = \frac{Q_N(t) - N}{\sqrt N}, \qquad t \ge 0 .qN​(t)=N​QN​(t)−N​,t≥0.

When qN≥0q_N \ge 0qN​≥0 it counts waiting callers and when qN≤0q_N \le 0qN​≤0 it counts idle agents, both in units of N\sqrt NN​.

For β∈R\beta \in \mathbb Rβ∈R and θ>0\theta > 0θ>0, the drift is the piecewise-linear function

f(x)={−μ(β+x),x≤0,−(μβ+θx),x>0,f(x) = \begin{cases} -\mu(\beta + x), & x \le 0,\\ -(\mu\beta + \theta x), & x > 0,\end{cases}f(x)={−μ(β+x),−(μβ+θx),​x≤0,x>0,​

and the limit diffusion qqq solves dq(t)=f(q(t)) dt+2μ db(t)dq(t) = f(q(t))\,dt + \sqrt{2\mu}\,db(t)dq(t)=f(q(t))dt+2μ​db(t), where bbb is a standard Brownian motion independent of q(0)q(0)q(0). The noise is additive, so this means: qqq has continuous paths and q(t)=q(0)+∫0tf(q(s)) ds+2μ b(t)q(t) = q(0) + \int_0^t f(q(s))\,ds + \sqrt{2\mu}\,b(t)q(t)=q(0)+∫0t​f(q(s))ds+2μ​b(t) for all t≥0t \ge 0t≥0. Below 000 it behaves like an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with restraining force μ\muμ, above 000 like one with restraining force θ\thetaθ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 216)

Assume

lim⁡N→∞N(1−ρN)=β∈(−∞,∞),lim⁡N→∞θN=θ∈(0,∞),\lim_{N\to\infty}\sqrt N(1-\rho_N) = \beta \in (-\infty,\infty), \qquad \lim_{N\to\infty}\theta_N = \theta \in (0,\infty),N→∞lim​N​(1−ρN​)=β∈(−∞,∞),N→∞lim​θN​=θ∈(0,∞),

and qN(0)⇒νq_N(0) \Rightarrow \nuqN​(0)⇒ν for a probability law ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR. Then

qN⇒qin D[0,∞),q_N \Rightarrow q \quad\text{in } D[0,\infty),qN​⇒qin D[0,∞),

where qqq is the solution of dq=f(q) dt+2μ dbdq = f(q)\,dt + \sqrt{2\mu}\,dbdq=f(q)dt+2μ​db with q(0)∼νq(0) \sim \nuq(0)∼ν, and this solution is unique in law.

Milestone: the limit equation is well posed (Theorem 2, p. 216)

On every probability space with a standard Brownian motion bbb and an independent initial value X0X_0X0​, the equation has a solution adapted to σ(X0,b(s):s≤t)\sigma(X_0, b(s): s \le t)σ(X0​,b(s):s≤t), and any two solutions with the same bbb and initial value are indistinguishable.

Milestone: infinitesimal moments (Appendix C, p. 224)

The infinitesimal expectation μN(x)\mu_N(x)μN​(x) and variance σN2(x)\sigma_N^2(x)σN2​(x) of qNq_NqN​ at the point xxx, as displayed on p. 224, satisfy

lim⁡N→∞μN(x)=f(x),lim⁡N→∞σN2(x)=2μ(x∈R).\lim_{N\to\infty}\mu_N(x) = f(x), \qquad \lim_{N\to\infty}\sigma_N^2(x) = 2\mu \qquad (x \in \mathbb R).N→∞lim​μN​(x)=f(x),N→∞lim​σN2​(x)=2μ(x∈R).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 is the basis for the paper's QED (quality- and efficiency-driven) approximations QN≈N+qNQ_N \approx N + q\sqrt NQN​≈N+qN​, which give explicit formulas for the probability of delay, the probability of abandonment and the waiting-time distribution in terms of β\betaβ, μ\muμ and θ\thetaθ. Unlike the M/M/NM/M/NM/M/N case, β\betaβ may be of either sign: abandonment keeps the system stable even when the offered load exceeds the number of agents. The resulting square-root staffing rule N=R+βRN = R + \beta\sqrt RN=R+βR​, with R=λ/μR = \lambda/\muR=λ/μ, is used in call-center practice.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper by Stone's criteria for birth–death processes, with uniqueness of the limit equation delegated to the literature. No many-server process limit exists on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. A formal proof would give the first machine-checked heavy-traffic process limit for a many-server queue, and the infrastructure (Poisson time-change representation of a birth–death process, path-space weak convergence to a continuous diffusion, well-posedness of a Lipschitz additive-noise SDE) would serve every other diffusion limit in queueing theory.

Difficulty

The infinitesimal-moment computation is elementary; it identifies the limit but does not prove convergence. The hard step is the passage from generator convergence to weak convergence of processes on D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞): tightness of {qN}\{q_N\}{qN​} in the Skorokhod space, which needs control of the jumps (of size 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​) and of the unbounded state space, and identification of every limit point as a solution of the equation, which needs uniqueness of the limit. A pointwise limit of the drifts at each fixed xxx is not enough: the convergence has to be controlled locally uniformly along the paths. A finite-dimensional limit at fixed times is weaker than the theorem.

Formalization scope

  • Queue. QNQ_NQN​ is realized by the time-change representation of Mandelbaum, Massey and Reiman (1998), cited by the paper: QN(t)=QN(0)+A(λNt)−S(μ∫0tmin⁡(QN(s),N) ds)−R(θN∫0t(QN(s)−N)+ ds)Q_N(t) = Q_N(0) + A(\lambda_N t) - S(\mu\int_0^t \min(Q_N(s), N)\,ds) - R(\theta_N \int_0^t (Q_N(s)-N)^+\,ds)QN​(t)=QN​(0)+A(λN​t)−S(μ∫0t​min(QN​(s),N)ds)−R(θN​∫0t​(QN​(s)−N)+ds), with A,S,RA, S, RA,S,R independent unit-rate Poisson processes independent of QN(0)Q_N(0)QN​(0). This has the birth–death law above.
  • Time. Paths are functions on R\mathbb RR; every condition is imposed for t≥0t \ge 0t≥0 only. Brownian time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge 0}R≥0​.
  • Indexing. NNN is both the index and the number of agents; every hypothesis on the NNN-th system is imposed for N≥1N \ge 1N≥1. λN\lambda_NλN​, θN\theta_NθN​ are real sequences and μ\muμ is fixed.
  • Weak convergence. All QNQ_NQN​ live on one probability space, which is no loss since only their laws matter. qN(0)⇒νq_N(0) \Rightarrow \nuqN​(0)⇒ν is convergence of E g(qN(0))E\,g(q_N(0))Eg(qN​(0)) for every bounded continuous ggg. qN⇒qq_N \Rightarrow qqN​⇒q is stated in coupling form (Skorokhod representation with almost-sure uniform convergence on compact time intervals), which is equivalent to J1J_1J1​ weak convergence when the limit is continuous.
  • Limit. The SDE is pathwise (Lebesgue integral, no Itô integral). Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal with every path continuous and every coordinate measurable. q(0)q(0)q(0) is independent of bbb, which is implicit in the paper. The goal asserts existence of a solution with qN⇒qq_N \Rightarrow qqN​⇒q and uniqueness of its law; dropping the uniqueness clause, fixing ν\nuν to a point mass, restricting to β>0\beta > 0β>0, μ=1\mu = 1μ=1, θ=μ\theta = \muθ=μ, or the stationary case is a different theorem.
  • Infinitesimal moments. Defined exactly as displayed, with ⌊⋅⌋\lfloor\cdot\rfloor⌊⋅⌋ the integer part. The display is printed for θ=0\theta = 0θ=0; the milestone is its 0<θ<∞0 < \theta < \infty0<θ<∞ instance with the limit fff of Theorem 2, pointwise in xxx.
  • Not covered. The cases θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 and θ=∞\theta = \inftyθ=∞ of Theorem 2* and the interchange of limits (Part 2).

Contributions welcome: a Poisson time-change existence theorem, tightness criteria in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞), well-posedness of Lipschitz SDEs with additive noise, and the martingale-problem approach to identifying limits.

Selected references

  • O. Garnett, A. Mandelbaum, M. Reiman, Designing a Call Center with Impatient Customers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 4(3):208–227, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.4.3.208.7753
  • S. Halfin, W. Whitt, Heavy-Traffic Limits for Queues with Many Exponential Servers, Operations Research 29(3):567–588, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • P. J. Fleming, A. Stolyar, B. Simon, Heavy Traffic Limit for a Mobile Phone System Loss Model, Proc. 2nd Int. Conf. on Telecommunication Systems Modeling and Analysis, 1994.
  • A. Mandelbaum, W. A. Massey, M. I. Reiman, Strong Approximations for Markovian Service Networks, Queueing Systems 30:149–201, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1019112920622
  • S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316658
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Experimental DesignOperations ResearchProbability+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling II: The MSE of the Optimal Stochastic Kriging Predictor Exceeds the Kriging MSE by a Positive Definite FormResearch Paper

Motivation

A simulation metamodel is a cheap surrogate for an expensive stochastic simulation: after running the simulation at a few design settings, one predicts the mean response at settings never simulated. Kriging, the interpolation method of geostatistics and of the design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE; Sacks, Welch, Mitchell and Wynn 1989; Santner, Williams and Notz 2003), treats the unknown response surface as a realization of a random field and predicts by the best linear predictor. Kriging was developed for deterministic computer codes, where an observation is the exact response. A stochastic simulation returns the response plus sampling noise, and the noise may be correlated across settings when the experimenter uses common random numbers (CRN).

Ankenman, Nelson and Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling (Proc. 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, pp. 362–370), extend kriging to this setting. The mission formalizes §2 of that paper: the form of the optimal linear predictor, called stochastic kriging, and the formula for its mean squared error, which shows how much the simulation noise costs. The source used throughout is the WSC 2008 proceedings paper, not the later Operations Research 58(2) 2010 article, whose numbering differs.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) and a set of design settings x\mathbf xx. On replication j=1,2,…j=1,2,\dotsj=1,2,… at setting x\mathbf xx the simulation outputs (display (3), with constant trend)

Yj(x)=β0+M(x)+εj(x).\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x)+\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x).Yj​(x)=β0​+M(x)+εj​(x).

The constant β0\beta_0β0​ is the overall mean. M\mathsf MM is a mean-zero random field, the extrinsic uncertainty imposed by the modeller. εj(x)\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x)εj​(x) is mean-zero sampling noise, the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulation; its variance may depend on x\mathbf xx, and noises at different settings may be correlated (CRN). All of these have finite second moments, and the field is uncorrelated with the noise.

An experiment design runs ni≥1n_i\ge1ni​≥1 replications at each of kkk design points x1,…,xk\mathbf x_1,\dots,\mathbf x_kx1​,…,xk​. The data are the sample means (4)

Yˉ(xi)=1ni∑j=1niYj(xi),Yˉ=(Yˉ(x1),…,Yˉ(xk))⊤,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i),\qquad\bar{\mathcal Y}=(\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_1),\dots,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_k))^\top,Yˉ​(xi​)=ni​1​j=1∑ni​​Yj​(xi​),Yˉ​=(Yˉ​(x1​),…,Yˉ​(xk​))⊤,

and the target at a point x0\mathbf x_0x0​ is the noise-free response Y(x0)=β0+M(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​)=β0​+M(x0​).

Write ΣM(x,x′)=Cov[M(x),M(x′)]\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x,\mathbf x')=\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x),\mathsf M(\mathbf x')]ΣM​(x,x′)=Cov[M(x),M(x′)]. Then ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ is the k×kk\times kk×k matrix of these covariances at the design points, ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅) is the vector (Cov[M(x0),M(xi)])i(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{i}(Cov[M(x0​),M(xi​)])i​, and Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is the k×kk\times kk×k covariance matrix of the averaged noises ∑j=1niεj(xi)/ni\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x_i)/n_i∑j=1ni​​εj​(xi​)/ni​. A linear predictor (5) is λ0+λ⊤Yˉ\lambda_0+\lambda^\top\bar{\mathcal Y}λ0​+λ⊤Yˉ​ with arbitrary weights (λ0,λ)∈R×Rk(\lambda_0,\lambda)\in\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^k(λ0​,λ)∈R×Rk; its mean squared error is E[(λ0+λ⊤Yˉ−Y(x0))2]\mathrm E[(\lambda_0+\lambda^\top\bar{\mathcal Y}-\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0))^2]E[(λ0​+λ⊤Yˉ​−Y(x0​))2]. The optimal MSE MSE⋆\mathrm{MSE}^\starMSE⋆ is the infimum of this quantity over all weights.

Formalization targets

Goal: display (7)

There is a rule Ξ\XiΞ, assigning a positive definite matrix Ξ(ΣM,Σε)\Xi(\Sigma_{\mathsf M},\Sigma_\varepsilon)Ξ(ΣM​,Σε​) to every pair of positive definite matrices, such that in every model as above with ΣM≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}\succ0ΣM​≻0 and Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0, and at every x0\mathbf x_0x0​,

MSE⋆=ΣM(x0,x0)−ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σε]−1ΣM(x0,⋅)=[ΣM(x0,x0)−ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤ΣM−1ΣM(x0,⋅)]+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤ Ξ ΣM(x0,⋅).\begin{aligned}\mathrm{MSE}^\star&=\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\mathbf x_0)-\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\\&=\Big[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\mathbf x_0)-\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\Sigma_{\mathsf M}^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\Big]+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\,\Xi\,\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot).\end{aligned}MSE⋆​=ΣM​(x0​,x0​)−ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=[ΣM​(x0​,x0​)−ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤ΣM−1​ΣM​(x0​,⋅)]+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤ΞΣM​(x0​,⋅).​

The bracket is the usual kriging MSE. The goal also states that MSE⋆\mathrm{MSE}^\starMSE⋆ strictly exceeds it whenever ΣM(x0,⋅)≠0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)\neq0ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=0. The matrix Ξ\XiΞ is existential and depends only on the two covariance matrices, not on x0\mathbf x_0x0​.

Milestone: display (6)

If ΣM+Σε≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0ΣM​+Σε​≻0, the stochastic kriging predictor

Y^(x0)=β0+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σε]−1(Yˉ−β01k)\widehat{\mathsf Y}(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}(\bar{\mathcal Y}-\beta_0\mathbf 1_k)Y(x0​)=β0​+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1(Yˉ​−β0​1k​)

is of the form (5), attains the smallest MSE among all predictors of that form, and is the only one that does.

Further items (not milestones)

  • (9)–(10): the two-point example, with closed forms for the predictor and its MSE in terms of τ2\tau^2τ2, r12r_{12}r12​, r0r_0r0​, V\mathsf VV, ρ\rhoρ and nnn.
  • (14): the equicorrelated example, MSE⋆=τ2(1−kr02/(1+(k−1)r+γ/n))\mathrm{MSE}^\star=\tau^2\big(1-k r_0^2/(1+(k-1)r+\gamma/n)\big)MSE⋆=τ2(1−kr02​/(1+(k−1)r+γ/n)).
  • §3, p. 365: under the Gaussian Assumption 1, Y^(x0)=E[Y(x0)∣Yˉ]\widehat{\mathsf Y}(\mathbf x_0)=\mathrm E[\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)\mid\bar{\mathcal Y}]Y(x0​)=E[Y(x0​)∣Yˉ​] almost surely.

Significance

Display (7) quantifies the price of simulation noise. With exact observations the best achievable error is the kriging MSE; with noisy observations it is larger by a positive definite form in the cross-covariance vector. Every point x0\mathbf x_0x0​ that is correlated with the design therefore loses accuracy. The two examples make this concrete. In (10) the MSE increases with the intrinsic correlation ρ\rhoρ, which is why the paper concludes that common random numbers, a standard variance-reduction device for comparing systems, do not help prediction. Display (14) is the baseline against which the paper measures the cost of estimating the noise variance. The conditional-expectation statement shows that under Gaussian assumptions stochastic kriging is optimal among all predictors, not only linear ones.

The results are classical in substance: they are the best-linear-prediction formulas of second-order random-field theory, applied to data whose covariance is ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​. The paper states them without proof ("we can show"). No machine-checked version exists. Formalizing them yields a reusable, measure-theoretic best-linear-predictor theorem for random vectors defined from a model rather than postulated, together with the Loewner-order fact behind the positive definiteness of Ξ\XiΞ.

Difficulty

The algebra is short; the difficulty is in deriving the second-moment structure from the model, not assuming it. The covariance of Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​ must be computed from the sample-mean definition, using bilinearity of covariance over finite sums of square-integrable variables, and shown to equal ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​. The cross-covariance with Y(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​) must be shown to equal ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅). The MSE of an arbitrary affine predictor then has to be written as a quadratic in (λ0,λ)(\lambda_0,\lambda)(λ0​,λ), and its infimum identified.

A first idea is to take "a random vector with mean β01\beta_0\mathbf 1β0​1 and covariance Σ\SigmaΣ" as the hypothesis. That proves a different, more abstract statement and leaves the model's content unproved.

For the second line of (7), the positive definiteness of Ξ\XiΞ does not follow from a scalar argument. It is a matrix inequality, (A+B)−1≺A−1(A+B)^{-1}\prec A^{-1}(A+B)−1≺A−1 for A,B≻0A,B\succ0A,B≻0, and it fails without Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0: when Σε=0\Sigma_\varepsilon=0Σε​=0 the two lines coincide.

Formalization scope

  • The model. Settings form an arbitrary type X; design points are x : Fin k → X, so the paper's index iii is i.val + 1. Replication j≥1j\ge1j≥1 is index j - 1 of a sequence ε : ℕ → X → Ω → ℝ.
  • Moments and covariances. Field and noise are in L2L^2L2 and have mean zero. Covariances are Mathlib's covariance. The optimal MSE is an infimum over all of R×Rk\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^kR×Rk, with no unbiasedness constraint and no sign constraint.
  • Hypotheses not printed in §2. Three are added and disclosed:
    1. uncorrelatedness of M\mathsf MM and ε\varepsilonε, the second-order content of Assumption 1's "independent of M\mathsf MM", without which the covariance of Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​ is not ΣM+Σε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​;
    2. square integrability;
    3. ΣM≻0\Sigma_{\mathsf M}\succ0ΣM​≻0 and Σε≻0\Sigma_\varepsilon\succ0Σε​≻0 in the goal. Lean's matrix inverse returns 000 for a singular matrix, and Ξ≻0\Xi\succ0Ξ≻0 is false when Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is singular.
  • Generality kept. No Gaussianity, no independence across replications and no "no CRN" restriction is imposed on (6) and (7).
  • Examples. ∣r12∣<1|r_{12}|<1∣r12​∣<1 in (10) and r≤1r\le1r≤1 in (14) are added, since both are correlations.
  • Non-trivializing. A positive semidefinite Ξ\XiΞ, or a Ξ\XiΞ chosen after x0\mathbf x_0x0​, would make the goal trivial or strictly weaker; the statement fixes Ξ\XiΞ as a function of (ΣM,Σε)(\Sigma_{\mathsf M},\Sigma_\varepsilon)(ΣM​,Σε​) before the model and the point.

Infrastructure needed and reusable beyond this mission:

  • covariance of averages of L2L^2L2 random variables;
  • the MSE of an affine predictor as a quadratic form;
  • minimization of a positive definite quadratic;
  • the Loewner antitonicity of the inverse;
  • for the conditional-expectation item, Gaussian conditioning via uncorrelated-hence-independent residuals.

Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, IEEE, pp. 362–370, 2008. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc08papers/042.pdf
  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Operations Research 58(2), 371–382, 2010 (later journal version, not used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0754
  • J. Sacks, W. J. Welch, T. J. Mitchell, H. P. Wynn, Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Statistical Science 4(4), 409–423, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012413
  • T. J. Santner, B. J. Williams, W. I. Notz, The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3799-8
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Experimental DesignOperations ResearchProbability+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling I: The Plug-In Stochastic Kriging Predictor Is UnbiasedResearch Paper

Motivation

Stochastic simulation models of queues, supply chains and manufacturing systems are often too slow to run at every input setting of interest. A metamodel fitted to a moderate number of simulation runs then stands in for the simulation, for instance inside an optimization or a sensitivity analysis. Kriging, developed in geostatistics and in the design and analysis of deterministic computer experiments (DACE), predicts an unknown response surface by treating it as a realization of a Gaussian random field. Deterministic kriging interpolates its data exactly, which is wrong for stochastic simulation, where each run returns the response plus sampling noise.

Ankenman, Nelson and Staum's stochastic kriging separates the two sources of uncertainty: the extrinsic uncertainty of the unknown surface and the intrinsic uncertainty of the simulation output. Its optimal predictor requires the intrinsic noise variances, which are never known in practice and are replaced by sample variances computed from the same replications. This mission formalizes the paper's first key result: this plug-in step introduces no prediction bias.

The source is the Winter Simulation Conference 2008 proceedings version of the paper (pp. 362–370). The later Operations Research 58(2) (2010) article numbers its results differently and is not the reference here.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) and design variables x∈Rd\mathbf x\in\mathbb R^dx∈Rd. On replication j=1,2,…j=1,2,\dotsj=1,2,… at setting x\mathbf xx the simulation returns

Yj(x)=β0+M(x)+εj(x),\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x)+\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x),Yj​(x)=β0​+M(x)+εj​(x),

where β0∈R\beta_0\in\mathbb Rβ0​∈R is a constant trend, M\mathsf MM is a mean-zero random field on Rd\mathbb R^dRd (the unknown surface) and εj(x)\varepsilon_j(\mathbf x)εj​(x) is the noise of replication jjj. The quantity to predict at any point x0\mathbf x_0x0​, simulated or not, is the noise-free response Y(x0)=β0+M(x0)\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)Y(x0​)=β0​+M(x0​).

An experiment design is a list of pairs (xi,ni)(\mathbf x_i,n_i)(xi​,ni​), i=1,…,ki=1,\dots,ki=1,…,k, with distinct design points xi\mathbf x_ixi​ and nin_ini​ replications at xi\mathbf x_ixi​. The data are summarized by the sample means Yˉ(xi)=1ni∑j=1niYj(xi)\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i)Yˉ​(xi​)=ni​1​∑j=1ni​​Yj​(xi​), collected in the vector Yˉ∈Rk\bar{\mathcal Y}\in\mathbb R^kYˉ​∈Rk, and the sample variances

S2(xi)=1ni−1∑j=1ni(Yj(xi)−Yˉ(xi))2.\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)=\frac1{n_i-1}\sum_{j=1}^{n_i}\big(\mathcal Y_j(\mathbf x_i)-\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_i)\big)^2 .S2(xi​)=ni​−11​j=1∑ni​​(Yj​(xi​)−Yˉ​(xi​))2.

The extrinsic covariances are the k×kk\times kk×k matrix ΣM=(Cov[M(xh),M(xi)])h,i\Sigma_{\mathsf M}=(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_h),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{h,i}ΣM​=(Cov[M(xh​),M(xi​)])h,i​ and the vector ΣM(x0,⋅)=(Cov[M(x0),M(xi)])i\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)=(\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0),\mathsf M(\mathbf x_i)])_{i}ΣM​(x0​,⋅)=(Cov[M(x0​),M(xi​)])i​.

Assumption 1. M\mathsf MM is a stationary Gaussian random field: all its finite-dimensional laws are multivariate normal with mean 000, the covariance is τ2R(x−x′)\tau^2R(\mathbf x-\mathbf x')τ2R(x−x′) with τ2>0\tau^2>0τ2>0 and R(0)=1R(\mathbf 0)=1R(0)=1, and the covariance matrix at finitely many distinct points is positive definite. At each design point the noises ε1(xi),ε2(xi),…\varepsilon_1(\mathbf x_i),\varepsilon_2(\mathbf x_i),\dotsε1​(xi​),ε2​(xi​),… are i.i.d. N(0,V(xi))N(0,\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i))N(0,V(xi​)) with V(xi)>0\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)>0V(xi​)>0; noises at different design points are independent (no common random numbers); and the whole noise family is independent of M\mathsf MM.

The intrinsic variance at a design point is estimated by V^(xi)=S2(xi)\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_i)=\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​)=S2(xi​), giving Σ^ε=Diag{V^(x1)/n1,…,V^(xk)/nk}\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon=\mathrm{Diag}\{\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_1)/n_1,\dots,\widehat{\mathsf V}(\mathbf x_k)/n_k\}Σε​=Diag{V(x1​)/n1​,…,V(xk​)/nk​} and the plug-in stochastic kriging predictor

Y^^(x0)=β0+ΣM(x0,⋅)⊤[ΣM+Σ^ε]−1(Yˉ−β01k).(13)\widehat{\widehat{\mathsf Y}}(\mathbf x_0)=\beta_0+\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)^\top\big[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon\big]^{-1}\big(\bar{\mathcal Y}-\beta_0\mathbf 1_k\big).\tag{13}Y(x0​)=β0​+ΣM​(x0​,⋅)⊤[ΣM​+Σε​]−1(Yˉ​−β0​1k​).(13)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 366)

Under Assumption 1, with ni≥2n_i\ge2ni​≥2 replications at every design point, the prediction error is integrable and

E[Y^^(x0)−Y(x0)]=0.\mathrm E\Big[\widehat{\widehat{\mathsf Y}}(\mathbf x_0)-\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0)\Big]=0 .E[Y(x0​)−Y(x0​)]=0.

Milestones (p. 365)

  1. Under Assumption 1, (Y(x0),Yˉ(x1),…,Yˉ(xk))(\mathsf Y(\mathbf x_0),\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_1),\dots,\bar{\mathcal Y}(\mathbf x_k))(Y(x0​),Yˉ​(x1​),…,Yˉ​(xk​)) is multivariate normal.
  2. Under Assumption 1, S2(xi)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)S2(xi​) has a scaled chi-squared distribution: (ni−1)S2(xi)/V(xi)∼χni−12(n_i-1)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)/\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)\sim\chi^2_{n_i-1}(ni​−1)S2(xi​)/V(xi​)∼χni​−12​.
  3. Under Assumption 1, S2(xi)\mathcal S^2(\mathbf x_i)S2(xi​) is strongly consistent for V(xi)\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​): the sample variance of the first mmm replications converges to V(xi)\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)V(xi​) almost surely as m→∞m\to\inftym→∞.

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the practitioner's shortcut, estimating the noise variances from the replications and plugging them into the optimal predictor, keeps the predictor unbiased; the cost of not knowing the intrinsic variance is paid entirely in mean squared error. This is what makes the paper's subsequent comparison of the plug-in MSE with the known-variance MSE the right measure of the penalty for estimation.

None of these statements has a machine-checked proof, and Mathlib has neither the chi-squared law of the normal sample variance nor the independence of the normal sample mean and sample variance. A complete development produces these classical facts of normal sampling theory for the first time in Lean, together with a reusable model of noisy observations of a Gaussian random field.

Difficulty

The predictor is a nonlinear function of the data: its weight vector [ΣM+Σ^ε]−1ΣM(x0,⋅)[\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilon]^{-1}\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)[ΣM​+Σε​]−1ΣM​(x0​,⋅) is random and depends on the same replications as Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​. Linearity of expectation therefore does not apply directly: the obvious argument, which treats the weights as constants, fails, and the dependence between the estimated variances, the sample means and the field has to be controlled exactly. The joint independence structure of Assumption 1 — across replications, across design points, and between noise and field — is load-bearing; a weaker pairwise or pointwise independence does not suffice. Integrability of the error must also be established, since the weights depend on random variances.

Formalization scope

Design points are indexed by Fin k (the paper's iii is i.val + 1) and lie in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); replication j≥1j\ge1j≥1 of the paper is index j - 1 of a sequence, so sums run over Finset.range. The field is M : EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) → Ω → ℝ with Mathlib's IsGaussianProcess; covariances are ProbabilityTheory.covariance; stationarity is Cov[M(y),M(y′)]=τ2R(y−y′)\mathrm{Cov}[\mathsf M(\mathbf y),\mathsf M(\mathbf y')]=\tau^2R(\mathbf y-\mathbf y')Cov[M(y),M(y′)]=τ2R(y−y′) with R(0)=1R(\mathbf 0)=1R(0)=1. The noise law is HasLaw … (gaussianReal 0 (V (x i))); independence is one iIndepFun over the family indexed by Fin k × ℕ plus one IndepFun between that whole family and the whole field. The variance function is ℝ≥0-valued with V(xi)>0\mathsf V(\mathbf x_i)>0V(xi​)>0 assumed; replication counts satisfy ni≥2n_i\ge2ni​≥2 wherever S2\mathcal S^2S2 appears and ni≥1n_i\ge1ni​≥1 where only means appear. The chi-squared law χν2\chi^2_\nuχν2​ is gammaMeasure (ν/2) (1/2).

The covariance quantities ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ and ΣM(x0,⋅)\Sigma_{\mathsf M}(\mathbf x_0,\cdot)ΣM​(x0​,⋅) in (13) are the true ones; only Σε\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is estimated, and Σ^ε\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is built from the same replications as Yˉ\bar{\mathcal Y}Yˉ​. A formalization in which Σ^ε\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣε​ is deterministic or independent of the data, in which the matrix ΣM+Σ^ε\Sigma_{\mathsf M}+\widehat\Sigma_\varepsilonΣM​+Σε​ may be singular (Lean's Matrix.inv returns 000 there, reducing the claim to E[M(x0)]=0\mathrm E[\mathsf M(\mathbf x_0)]=0E[M(x0​)]=0), or in which the expectation is asserted without integrability, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out: positive definiteness of ΣM\Sigma_{\mathsf M}ΣM​ at distinct design points is part of Assumption 1, and integrability is part of the conclusion. x0\mathbf x_0x0​ may coincide with a design point.

A complete development needs: the law of linear images of independent Gaussian vectors; independence of the sample mean and the residual vector for i.i.d. normal samples (Cochran's theorem); the chi-squared law of the normal sample variance; the strong law of large numbers for the sample variance; and a measurability and boundedness argument for the random weight vector. The normal-sampling results are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions.

Selected references

  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Proceedings of the 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, IEEE, pp. 362–370, 2008. http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc08papers/042.pdf
  • B. Ankenman, B. L. Nelson, J. Staum, Stochastic Kriging for Simulation Metamodeling, Operations Research 58(2):371–382, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1090.0754
  • T. J. Santner, B. J. Williams, W. I. Notz, The Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments, Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3799-8
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium 1: Under Regret-Matching (2.2), the Empirical Distributions of Play Converge Almost Surely to the Set of Correlated EquilibriaResearch Paper

Motivation

A correlated equilibrium (Aumann 1974) is a probability distribution over strategy profiles of a game such that no player gains by deviating from a recommended strategy, given the recommendation. It is the solution concept of choice when players can condition on common signals, and its set is a convex polytope defined by linear inequalities, which makes it computationally tractable in a way that Nash equilibrium is not. A natural question in learning in games is whether simple adaptive behaviour by individual players, each using only their own payoffs and the observed history, leads to it.

Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) answer this with regret matching: each player switches away from their last action with probabilities proportional to the regret for not having played other actions in the past. They show that if every player uses this rule, the empirical distribution of play converges almost surely to the set of correlated equilibria. The procedure and its analysis became standard references for no-regret learning, internal (swap) regret, and the counterfactual-regret-minimization algorithms used in large imperfect-information games.

Timeline. Foster and Vohra (1997) obtained convergence to correlated equilibria by calibrated forecasting. Fudenberg and Levine (1999) gave conditionally consistent procedures with the same consequence. Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) gave the regret-matching procedure (2.2), in which a player's probabilities depend on regrets only, together with a Blackwell-approachability variant (their Theorem A, the subject of the companion mission 2 of this series).

Setting

A finite game Γ=(N,(Si)i∈N,(ui)i∈N)\Gamma=(N,(S^i)_{i\in N},(u^i)_{i\in N})Γ=(N,(Si)i∈N​,(ui)i∈N​) has a finite set of players NNN, a finite strategy set SiS^iSi for each player, and payoffs ui:S→Ru^i:S\to\mathbb Rui:S→R on S=∏iSiS=\prod_i S^iS=∏i​Si. A probability distribution ψ\psiψ on SSS is a correlated ε\varepsilonε-equilibrium if for every player iii and all j,k∈Sij,k\in S^ij,k∈Si

∑s: si=jψ(s) [ui(k,s−i)−ui(s)]≤ε;\sum_{s:\,s^i=j}\psi(s)\,[u^i(k,s^{-i})-u^i(s)]\le\varepsilon ;s:si=j∑​ψ(s)[ui(k,s−i)−ui(s)]≤ε;

a correlated equilibrium is the case ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0.

The game is played at t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,…, producing a history ht=(s1,…,st)h_t=(s_1,\dots,s_t)ht​=(s1​,…,st​). For j,k∈Sij,k\in S^ij,k∈Si the regret of player iii is

Dti(j,k)=1t∑τ≤t: sτi=j[ui(k,sτ−i)−ui(sτ)],Rti(j,k)=max⁡{Dti(j,k),0}:D^i_t(j,k)=\frac1t\sum_{\tau\le t:\,s^i_\tau=j}[u^i(k,s^{-i}_\tau)-u^i(s_\tau)],\qquad R^i_t(j,k)=\max\{D^i_t(j,k),0\}:Dti​(j,k)=t1​τ≤t:sτi​=j∑​[ui(k,sτ−i​)−ui(sτ​)],Rti​(j,k)=max{Dti​(j,k),0}:

the average gain player iii would have had by playing kkk every time they played jjj. Fix μ\muμ with μ>2Mi(mi−1)\mu>2M^i(m^i-1)μ>2Mi(mi−1) for every iii, where Mi≥∣ui∣M^i\ge|u^i|Mi≥∣ui∣ and mi=∣Si∣m^i=|S^i|mi=∣Si∣. Under regret matching (2.2), if player iii last played jjj, then at t+1t+1t+1 they play each k≠jk\ne jk=j with probability Rti(j,k)/μR^i_t(j,k)/\muRti​(j,k)/μ and repeat jjj with the remaining probability; the first-period mixed actions are arbitrary, and given the history the players randomize independently. The empirical distribution of play is zt(s)=1t∣{τ≤t:sτ=s}∣z_t(s)=\frac1t|\{\tau\le t:s_\tau=s\}|zt​(s)=t1​∣{τ≤t:sτ​=s}∣.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Main Theorem

Almost surely, ztz_tzt​ converges to the set of correlated equilibria:

P(∀ε>0 ∃T ∀t>T ∃ψ correlated equilibrium with dist⁡(zt,ψ)<ε)=1.P\Big(\forall\varepsilon>0\ \exists T\ \forall t>T\ \exists\psi\ \text{correlated equilibrium with } \operatorname{dist}(z_t,\psi)<\varepsilon\Big)=1 .P(∀ε>0 ∃T ∀t>T ∃ψ correlated equilibrium with dist(zt​,ψ)<ε)=1.

This is convergence to a set, not to a point; the paper notes that ztz_tzt​ need not converge.

Milestones

They follow the Appendix proof:

  • the PROPOSITION (§3), a deterministic equivalence: lim sup⁡tRti(j,k)≤ε\limsup_t R^i_t(j,k)\le\varepsilonlimsupt​Rti​(j,k)≤ε for all iii and j≠kj\ne kj=k iff ztz_tzt​ converges to the set of correlated ε\varepsilonε-equilibria;
  • positivity of the diagonal of the transition matrix Πt\Pi_tΠt​ of (2.2);
  • Steps M1–M11, with the two LEMMAs used in the proofs of M4 and M7.

The squared distance ρt=∑j≠k[Rt(j,k)]2\rho_t=\sum_{j\ne k}[R_t(j,k)]^2ρt​=∑j=k​[Rt​(j,k)]2 satisfies a block recursion (M1). The cross term is rewritten through the transition probabilities (M2) and compared with a stationary auxiliary process (M3–M5). It then factors into a difference of consecutive matrix powers (M6), which is small (M7). This gives

E[(t+v)2ρt+v∣ht]≤t2ρt+O(v3+tv1/2)(M8).E[(t+v)^2\rho_{t+v}\mid h_t]\le t^2\rho_t+O(v^3+tv^{1/2})\qquad\text{(M8)}.E[(t+v)2ρt+v​∣ht​]≤t2ρt​+O(v3+tv1/2)(M8).

Along tn=⌊n5/3⌋t_n=\lfloor n^{5/3}\rfloortn​=⌊n5/3⌋ this gives ρtn→0\rho_{t_n}\to0ρtn​​→0 a.s. (M9–M10), and then Rt(j,k)→0R_t(j,k)\to0Rt​(j,k)→0 a.s. (M11). A companion item states the strong law for dependent variables that M10 cites.

Significance

The result. The Main Theorem shows that correlated equilibrium is reached by uncoupled play: each player needs only their own payoff function and the history of play, and nothing about the others' payoffs. Steps M10–M11 give more than the goal, namely that every player's internal regrets vanish almost surely. The procedure underlies later work on swap regret, calibrated learning and regret-minimization algorithms for extensive-form games.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper. As far as a search of the platform and the local index shows, it has no machine-checked proof. The mission asks for one, following the paper's eleven steps. Several pieces are general and reusable: a bound on consecutive powers of a stochastic matrix with positive diagonal (LEMMA, proof of M7); a perturbation bound for multi-step transition probabilities (LEMMA, proof of M4); and a strong law of large numbers for martingale differences with general normalizing sequences, which Mathlib does not have in this form.

Difficulty

The natural approach is Blackwell approachability: show that the expected regret vector moves toward the nonpositive orthant in one step. It fails here. The one-step condition holds when a player uses an invariant distribution of Πt\Pi_tΠt​, which is the procedure of Theorem A, but regret matching uses a row of Πt\Pi_tΠt​ instead. The cross term of the one-step recursion therefore does not vanish.

The proof has to work over blocks of vvv periods. Within a block the players' choices are not independent given hth_tht​, because the transition probabilities change with time. The paper therefore compares the play with a process whose transitions are frozen at time ttt. The matrix-power estimate cannot use convergence of Πtw\Pi_t^wΠtw​, since only the diagonal of Πt\Pi_tΠt​ is known to be positive and Πt\Pi_tΠt​ may be reducible or periodic in its off-diagonal structure. The block length must also balance the errors w2/tw^2/tw2/t and w−1/2w^{-1/2}w−1/2, which is why the subsequence tn=⌊n5/3⌋t_n=\lfloor n^{5/3}\rfloortn​=⌊n5/3⌋ appears.

Formalization scope

Players form a Fintype ι, strategies form Fintypes S i, each nonempty, and a profile is a function ∀ i, S i. Δ(Q)\Delta(Q)Δ(Q) is Mathlib's stdSimplex. Time is 0-based: play τ is sτ+1s_{\tau+1}sτ+1​, and a history is a tuple Fin t → ∀ i, S i. Regrets, ztz_tzt​, Πt\Pi_tΠt​ and ρt\rho_tρt​ are deterministic functions of a finite history. Every statement has t≥1t\ge1t≥1, because the Lean value at t=0t=0t=0 is a default. A play of a behaviour profile on a probability space (IsPlay) is a sequence of profile-valued random variables with measurable level sets whose conditional law given any history of positive probability is the product of the players' mixed actions. Statements quantify over every probability space carrying a play, and conditional quantities given hth_tht​ assume P[ht]>0P[h_t]>0P[ht​]>0. The auxiliary s^\hat ss^-process is encoded by its explicit law, a power of the product transition matrix. The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) (footnote 34) is a constant chosen after the game, MMM and μ\muμ and before the initial play, the probability space and the play. Distances on RS\mathbb R^SRS are sup distances.

The hypotheses are exactly footnote 5's: ∣ui∣≤Mi|u^i|\le M^i∣ui∣≤Mi and μ>2Mi(mi−1)\mu>2M^i(m^i-1)μ>2Mi(mi−1), with one μ\muμ for all players. The goal requires every player to follow (2.2). If other players may play arbitrarily the statement is false (§4(d)), so IsPlay constrains all of them. The goal is stated with an existential correlated equilibrium at distance less than ε\varepsilonε, not with a distance to a possibly empty set, so no encoding makes it vacuous.

Disclosed choices:

  • the LEMMA of M7 is stated with a constant that depends only on a lower bound on the diagonal, which is what the proof gives and what M7 uses;
  • the PROPOSITION states lim sup⁡≤ε\limsup\le\varepsilonlimsup≤ε as "for every δ>0\delta>0δ>0, eventually ≤ε+δ\le\varepsilon+\delta≤ε+δ";
  • the strong law assumes each XnX_nXn​ is measurable and in L2L^2L2.

Contributions are welcome at every milestone. The two LEMMAs and the strong law are self-contained and independent of the game.

Selected references

  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium, Econometrica 68(5) (2000), 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974), 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997), 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • D. Fudenberg and D. K. Levine, Conditional Universal Consistency, Games and Economic Behavior 29 (1999), 104–130. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1998.0705
  • D. Blackwell, An Analog of the Minimax Theorem for Vector Payoffs, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 6 (1956), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1956.6.1
  • M. Loève, Probability Theory II, 4th ed., Springer (1978), Theorem 32.1.E.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Negative Dynamic Programming III: If the Actions Are Essentially Finite, Value Iteration from Zero Converges to the Optimal Return and a Stationary Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A dynamic programming problem in Blackwell's sense describes a controller who observes the state of a system, picks an action, collects a return, and watches the system move at random to a new state, forever. Blackwell treated the discounted case, with a bounded return and a discount factor below one (Blackwell 1965), and the positive bounded case. Strauch's paper (Strauch 1966) studies the third case, the negative case: the return is non-positive and there is no discounting. Equivalently, a non-negative cost is minimized over an infinite horizon. This is the setting of stochastic shortest-path, optimal stopping with costs, and many inventory and search problems in which the total cost may be infinite.

In the negative case two standard tools of the discounted theory break down. An optimal policy need not exist, and the natural algorithm, value iteration from the zero function, need not converge to the optimal return. Strauch's §9 gives a condition on the action sets, essential finiteness, under which both are restored. The introduction (p. 872) summarizes the finite case: "In the negative case, … if A is finite, there is an optimal policy (Section 9)." In the later terminology of Bertsekas and Shreve (1978), Strauch's negative case is their positive-cost model, for which value iteration from zero is known to require such finiteness or compactness conditions.

Setting

The state space SSS and the action space AAA are non-empty Borel sets. The law of motion q(⋅∣s,a)q(\cdot\mid s,a)q(⋅∣s,a) is a probability measure on SSS depending measurably on (s,a)(s,a)(s,a). The return r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t)r(s,a,t), collected when action aaa is taken in state sss and the next state is ttt, is a Borel function with −∞<r≤0-\infty<r\le 0−∞<r≤0 and ∫r(s,a,t) dq(t∣s,a)>−∞\int r(s,a,t)\,dq(t\mid s,a)>-\infty∫r(s,a,t)dq(t∣s,a)>−∞ for every (s,a)(s,a)(s,a).

A policy π=(π1,π2,… )\pi=(\pi_1,\pi_2,\dots)π=(π1​,π2​,…) chooses the nnnth action at random, with a law depending measurably on the whole history (s1,a1,…,sn)(s_1,a_1,\dots,s_n)(s1​,a1​,…,sn​). A Markov policy (f1,f2,… )(f_1,f_2,\dots)(f1​,f2​,…) is a sequence of measurable maps S→AS\to AS→A; the stationary policy f(∞)f^{(\infty)}f(∞) uses one map fff at every stage. The expected return from the initial state sss is

I(π)(s)=∑n=1∞π1q⋯πnq r (s)∈[−∞,0],I(\pi)(s)=\sum_{n=1}^\infty \pi_1q\cdots\pi_nq\,r\,(s)\in[-\infty,0],I(π)(s)=n=1∑∞​π1​q⋯πn​qr(s)∈[−∞,0],

the sum of the expected stage returns. The optimal return is v∗=sup⁡πI(π)v^*=\sup_\pi I(\pi)v∗=supπ​I(π), over all policies, and π∗\pi^*π∗ is optimal if I(π∗)≥v∗I(\pi^*)\ge v^*I(π∗)≥v∗ at every state.

For a measurable f:S→Af:S\to Af:S→A and a non-positive Borel uuu, the operator TTT of fff is

Tu(s)=∫[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)] dq(t∣s,f(s)),Tu(s)=\int\big[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)\big]\,dq(t\mid s,f(s)),Tu(s)=∫[r(s,f(s),t)+u(t)]dq(t∣s,f(s)),

and the operator of a Markov policy π∗=(f1,f2,… )\pi^*=(f_1,f_2,\dots)π∗=(f1​,f2​,…) is Uu=sup⁡nTnuUu=\sup_nT_nuUu=supn​Tn​u, with TnT_nTn​ the operator of fnf_nfn​. Value iteration is the sequence Un0U^n0Un0.

Actions aaa and bbb are equivalent at sss if r(s,a,⋅)=r(s,b,⋅)r(s,a,\cdot)=r(s,b,\cdot)r(s,a,⋅)=r(s,b,⋅) and q(⋅∣s,a)=q(⋅∣s,b)q(\cdot\mid s,a)=q(\cdot\mid s,b)q(⋅∣s,a)=q(⋅∣s,b). AAA is essentially finite by π∗\pi^*π∗ if there is a partition of SSS into Borel sets S1,S2,…S_1,S_2,\dotsS1​,S2​,… such that for s∈Sns\in S_ns∈Sn​ every action is equivalent at sss to one of f1(s),…,fn(s)f_1(s),\dots,f_n(s)f1​(s),…,fn​(s). A finite AAA is essentially finite by any Markov policy whose first ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ rules are the constant rules.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.1 (N), p. 887

If AAA is essentially finite by π∗\pi^*π∗ and UUU is the operator of π∗\pi^*π∗, then

Un0(s)→n→∞v∗(s)=sup⁡πI(π)(s)for every s,and∃f: I(f(∞))≥v∗.U^n0(s)\xrightarrow[n\to\infty]{}v^*(s)=\sup_\pi I(\pi)(s)\quad\text{for every } s,\qquad\text{and}\qquad \exists f:\ I(f^{(\infty)})\ge v^*.Un0(s)n→∞​v∗(s)=πsup​I(π)(s)for every s,and∃f: I(f(∞))≥v∗.

Both parts are kept together, as printed. The goal fixes no constants and no rate.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 6.1 (N), p. 880. For every Markov policy π^\hat\piπ^ with operator UUU, lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0 exists and
lim⁡nUn0 ≥ sup⁡π∈G(π^)I(π) ≥ sup⁡f(∞)∈G(π^)I(f(∞)),\lim_nU^n0\ \ge\ \sup_{\pi\in G(\hat\pi)}I(\pi)\ \ge\ \sup_{f^{(\infty)}\in G(\hat\pi)}I(f^{(\infty)}),nlim​Un0 ≥ π∈G(π^)sup​I(π) ≥ f(∞)∈G(π^)sup​I(f(∞)),

where G(π^)G(\hat\pi)G(π^) is the set of π^\hat\piπ^-generated policies (each rule equal to fnf_nfn​ on the nnnth piece of a Borel partition). 2. Proof of Theorem 8.4, p. 887. sup⁡πI(π)=sup⁡{I(π^)∣π^ Markov}\sup_\pi I(\pi)=\sup\{I(\hat\pi)\mid\hat\pi\text{ Markov}\}supπ​I(π)=sup{I(π^)∣π^ Markov} pointwise. 3. Proof of Theorem 9.1, p. 887, first step. Under essential finiteness, Un0U^n0Un0 is non-increasing and I(π)≤v∞:=lim⁡nUn0I(\pi)\le v^\infty:=\lim_nU^n0I(π)≤v∞:=limn​Un0 for every policy π\piπ. 4. Proof of Theorem 9.1, p. 887, second step. Under essential finiteness, Uv∞≥v∞Uv^\infty\ge v^\inftyUv∞≥v∞.

Inside the proof of Theorem 9.1 the paper writes v∗v^*v∗ for lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0; the mission writes v∞v^\inftyv∞ for it and reserves v∗v^*v∗ for sup⁡πI(π)\sup_\pi I(\pi)supπ​I(π).

An optional extra item states the introduction's special case: if AAA is finite, an optimal policy exists (§1, p. 872).

Significance

Theorem 9.1 gives, in the negative case, both a computational and an existential conclusion. Value iteration from zero computes the optimal return, so the optimal total cost of an essentially finite problem is the limit of the optimal finite-horizon costs. An optimal policy exists and can be taken stationary, so the controller needs only a single measurable decision rule. Without a hypothesis of this kind neither conclusion holds in the negative case; Example 6.1 of the paper exhibits a problem where the limit of value iteration, the best return among generated policies, and the best stationary return all differ.

The result is proved in the paper. What the mission adds is a machine-checked statement and, eventually, proof of it on general Borel spaces, with the return allowed to equal −∞-\infty−∞. Blackwell's discounted analogue already has a published statement on Prove2Me (DiscountedDP.Stationary.theorem7b_optimal_stationary), in a bounded-return model; the negative case is a separate statement in a separate model. No formalization of the negative case is known to exist.

Difficulty

The discounted proof rests on the contraction property of UUU in the supremum norm, and in the negative case that property is missing: returns are unbounded below and there is no discount. The obvious argument, "Un0U^n0Un0 decreases to some v∞v^\inftyv∞, and v∞v^\inftyv∞ is the optimal return because finite-horizon play approximates infinite play", fails at the second step. The finite-horizon optimum can stay strictly above the infinite-horizon optimum, because a policy can postpone a cost beyond every fixed horizon; this is exactly the gap Example 6.1 exhibits. Closing it needs the essential finiteness of the actions together with the reduction of arbitrary policies to Markov ones (milestone 2), whose proof in the paper passes through the measurable-selection results of §7–§8.

Formalization scope

  • The state and action spaces are non-empty standard Borel types; "Baire function" means Borel measurable.
  • The law of motion is a Markov kernel; the return is real-valued, non-positive, Borel, and integrable against every q(⋅∣s,a)q(\cdot\mid s,a)q(⋅∣s,a) (the paper's r>−∞r>-\inftyr>−∞ and qr>−∞qr>-\inftyqr>−∞).
  • Returns live in EReal and are computed as minus the lintegral of the loss −r-r−r, which keeps the value −∞-\infty−∞. I(π)I(\pi)I(π) is the sum over stages of the expected stage loss, which equals the paper's integral over futures by monotone convergence.
  • v∗v^*v∗ is the supremum over every randomized history-dependent plan, never over Markov or stationary policies only, and it is not defined through UUU. Defining v∗v^*v∗ as lim⁡nUn0\lim_nU^n0limn​Un0 would make part (a) of the goal hold by unfolding; this trivializing formalization is excluded.
  • Optimality is against every plan, at every state.
  • UUU is the operator of the fixed π∗\pi^*π∗ of the hypothesis, applied from the zero function; convergence is pointwise in EReal.
  • Stages are numbered from 000 in Lean. Essential finiteness is zero-based: Lean's piece nnn is the paper's Sn+1S_{n+1}Sn+1​ and allows the rules f1,…,fn+1f_1,\dots,f_{n+1}f1​,…,fn+1​. The pieces are measurable, pairwise disjoint and cover SSS; empty pieces are allowed, as in the paper.
  • Explicit choices: the existence of lim⁡Un0\lim U^n0limUn0 in Lemma 6.1 is part of the statement; the limit in the steps of Theorem 9.1 is written as the infimum of the non-increasing sequence.
  • Only the negative case is formalized; the paper's discounted and positive parts are not.

Policies, Markov policies, stationary policies and π^\hat\piπ^-generated rules come from the published definitions DiscountedDP.Stationary.Model, .Return and .Operators; the negative model is defined locally because the published Problem has a bounded return and a discount factor below one. A complete development needs the Ionescu-Tulcea construction of the history laws (already encoded as iterated composition products), monotone convergence for kernels, the measurable-selection step behind milestone 2, and a pigeonhole argument over the essentially finite action classes. The model and the Markov-reduction milestone are reusable by the other missions of this series. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to milestone 2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. E. Strauch, Negative Dynamic Programming, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 37(4), 871–890, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • D. Blackwell, Discounted Dynamic Programming, The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36(1), 226–235, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177700285
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978. http://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
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AnalysisOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems 2: Addition, Supremum and the Reflecting Barrier Preserve J₁ Convergence of Linearly Centered PathsResearch Paper

Motivation

Queueing models often represent work arriving to and leaving a server by a real-valued input path. The resulting workload cannot fall below a barrier. Functional limit theorems describe what happens to such paths under scaling, but a limit for the input path is useful only when it can be carried through the workload transformation. Ward Whitt’s 1980 paper studies several path transformations that occur in stochastic-process limits and states conditions under which their limits can be computed in Skorohod topologies. Section 6 treats the running supremum and a reflecting barrier, including paths with a linear drift that changes with the scaling index. This mission formalizes the three-regime reflection result, Theorem 6.4, and the source results on its dependency path. Whitt (1980)

The result is already proved in the paper. Its formal Lean statement remains an open proof target here. The mission is therefore concerned with formalizing the known theorem, including its exact jump conditions and convergence modes, rather than proposing a new queueing claim. Whitt (1980), pp. 80–81

Setting

A càdlàg path on a real interval TTT is right-continuous and has a limit from the left wherever TTT approaches a time from the left. The collection of such real-valued paths is D(T,R)D(T,\mathbb R)D(T,R). For a compact interval [a,b][a,b][a,b], the J1J_1J1​ distance between xxx and yyy allows an increasing homeomorphism λ\lambdaλ of time and measures the larger of its distance from the identity and the uniform distance between xxx and y∘λy\circ\lambday∘λ. On a general interval, J1J_1J1​ convergence is specified by restrictions to compact subintervals whose endpoints are continuity points of the limit or endpoints of TTT. The paper uses complete separable metric spaces for general path-space results; Section 6 specializes to real-valued paths and intervals with 000 as a closed left endpoint. Whitt (1980), pp. 70, 80

For x∈D(T,R)x\in D(T,\mathbb R)x∈D(T,R) and t∈Tt\in Tt∈T, define the running supremum x↑(t)=sup⁡0≤s≤tx(s)x^{\uparrow}(t)=\sup_{0\le s\le t}x(s)x↑(t)=sup0≤s≤t​x(s) and running infimum x↓(t)=inf⁡0≤s≤tx(s)x^{\downarrow}(t)=\inf_{0\le s\le t}x(s)x↓(t)=inf0≤s≤t​x(s). The reflecting-barrier map is f(x)(t)=x(t)−x↓(t)f(x)(t)=x(t)-x^{\downarrow}(t)f(x)(t)=x(t)−x↓(t). This is the paper’s definition: it subtracts the full running infimum. The identity path is e(t)=te(t)=te(t)=t, and θ\thetaθ denotes the zero path. A path has no positive jumps if x(t)≤x(t−)x(t)\le x(t-)x(t)≤x(t−) for each t>0t>0t>0 in TTT; no negative jumps reverses that inequality. Whitt (1980), pp. 80–81

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 6.4. Suppose xn−cne→xx_n-c_ne\to xxn​−cn​e→x in J1J_1J1​ and x(0)=0x(0)=0x(0)=0. Its three conclusions are

cn→c  ⟹  f(xn)→f(x+ce)(J1),cn→+∞  ⟹  f(xn)−cne→x(J1),cn→−∞ and x has no positive jumps  ⟹  f(xn)→θ(U).\begin{aligned} c_n\to c &\implies f(x_n)\to f(x+ce) &&(J_1),\\ c_n\to+\infty &\implies f(x_n)-c_ne\to x &&(J_1),\\ c_n\to-\infty\ \text{and }x\text{ has no positive jumps} &\implies f(x_n)\to\theta &&(U). \end{aligned}cn​→ccn​→+∞cn​→−∞ and x has no positive jumps​⟹f(xn​)→f(x+ce)⟹f(xn​)−cn​e→x⟹f(xn​)→θ​​(J1​),(J1​),(U).​

Here UUU means uniform convergence on every compact subinterval. The goal keeps all three drift regimes together, as the printed theorem does. Its milestones are the finite-partition fact cited from Billingsley, the interval-splitting Lemma 2.2, continuity of addition at limits without shared discontinuities in Theorem 4.1, the running-supremum inequality in Theorem 6.1, the three-regime supremum theorem 6.2, and the paper’s explicit claim that fff is J1J_1J1​-continuous. Whitt (1980), pp. 71, 79–81

Significance

The theorem specifies which output path appears after reflection as the linear centering changes. Finite drift leaves a reflected limit with drift included; large positive drift leaves the centered input limit; large negative drift drives the reflected path uniformly to zero when upward jumps of the limit are excluded. The distinction between J1J_1J1​ and the stronger compact-uniform mode in the last case is part of the result. These statements make the paper’s barrier transformation usable when an input-process limit is already known. Whitt (1980), Theorem 6.4

A completed formal development would establish reusable path-space components: a precise J1J_1J1​ convergence interface for real intervals, a theorem about addition with disjoint discontinuities, and continuity properties of running extrema and reflection. The present Lean items state these results and compile with proof placeholders. No machine-checked proof of these mission theorems is claimed here. The milestone list follows the claims Whitt states or cites, so later proofs can be attached to the same mathematical targets. Whitt (1980), §§2, 4, 6

Difficulty

A uniform estimate alone does not establish a J1J_1J1​ limit: separate paths may converge using different changes of time, and addition can fail when the limiting paths jump together. Whitt’s Theorem 4.1 gives continuity precisely at pairs with disjoint discontinuity sets. In the reflection theorem, a linearly growing drift also changes which extrema matter, and the sign of a jump decides whether the large-drift conclusion can hold. The negative-drift conclusion asks for compact-uniform convergence, which is stronger than merely retaining J1J_1J1​ convergence. These are real constraints on the statement; dropping a jump condition or replacing UUU by J1J_1J1​ changes the theorem. Whitt (1980), pp. 78–81

Formalization scope

Paths are total functions R→S\mathbb R\to SR→S, but only their values on the stated interval count. The Lean definitions require càdlàg membership of both prelimit and limit paths in each J1J_1J1​ convergence claim. A time change on [a,b][a,b][a,b] is strictly increasing, continuous, and onto; this represents the paper’s increasing homeomorphism. Uniform and J1J_1J1​ distances take values in the extended nonnegative reals, so an unbounded supremum cannot silently become zero. Continuity points use continuity within TTT, and the discontinuity set likewise contains only points of TTT. Sequential convergence is used because the paper’s J1J_1J1​ spaces are metrizable. These choices encode the paper’s path-space conventions rather than imposing conditions on values outside TTT. Whitt (1980), §§2, 4, 6

The compact form of Theorem 6.1 uses metric (2.1); the noncompact metric (2.2) is outside this mission’s definition layer. Theorem 4.1 retains the paper’s complete separable metric-space setting and metric compatibility of addition. Its measurability clause is omitted: this mission does not construct the Borel measurable space of D(T,S)D(T,S)D(T,S), and a product measurable structure on all total functions would express a different claim. The source’s f(x)=x−x↓f(x)=x-x^{\downarrow}f(x)=x−x↓ is used on both prelimit and limit paths; it is not replaced by a clipped running infimum. Whitt (1980), pp. 70, 78–81

The definition layer, the addition theorem, the running-extremum results, and the barrier continuity statement are welcome proof targets. The theorem’s centered-path hypothesis remains a genuine J1J_1J1​ convergence assertion, and the jump conditions apply to the limit path only. A vacuous convergence predicate or an independently assumed conclusion would not represent this mission’s goal.

Selected references

  • Ward Whitt, Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems, Mathematics of Operations Research 5(1), 1980, pp. 67–85. DOI: 10.1287/moor.5.1.67
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Operations ResearchOptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Scheduling Model for Reduced CPU Energy: For P(s) = s², the Average Rate Heuristic Has Competitive Ratio Between 4 and 8Research Paper

Why processor speed changes the scheduling problem

A processor can save energy by running slowly when work is light, but a deadline may force it to run faster. Yao, Demers, and Shenker formulated this tradeoff as an offline and online scheduling problem for a variable-speed processor in their 1995 FOCS paper. Their Average Rate Heuristic (AVR) uses only each job's arrival, deadline, and required work to set speed. This mission formalizes their quadratic-power analysis: AVR's worst-case energy is at least four and at most eight times the minimum possible energy. The authors prove these bounds in Theorem 2, rather than an exact value.

The question matters when an online scheduler must choose speed before seeing later jobs. Deadline feasibility alone does not measure energy: processing the same number of cycles at twice the speed for half as long can cost more when power grows superlinearly. The paper's model isolates that dependence in a power function P(s)P(s)P(s), so the competitive guarantee measures the energy price of AVR's speed choices. The initial motivation, model, and heuristic are in §§1–4 of the paper.

Jobs, schedules, and the average-rate rule

Fix a nondegenerate time window [t0,t1][t_0,t_1][t0​,t1​]. A finite job instance JJJ assigns each job jjj an arrival time aja_jaj​, deadline bj>ajb_j>a_jbj​>aj​, and nonnegative required work RjR_jRj​ in CPU cycles. Every job window [aj,bj][a_j,b_j][aj​,bj​] lies inside [t0,t1][t_0,t_1][t0​,t1​]. A schedule S=(s,job⁡)S=(s,\operatorname{job})S=(s,job) has nonnegative processor speed s(t)s(t)s(t) and selects at most one job at each time. Speed and job selection are constant between finitely many breakpoints. The schedule is feasible if each job receives its full work inside its own window:

∫ajbjs(t) 1{job⁡(t)=j} dt=Rjfor every j.\int_{a_j}^{b_j}s(t)\,\mathbf 1\{\operatorname{job}(t)=j\}\,dt=R_j \qquad\text{for every }j.∫aj​bj​​s(t)1{job(t)=j}dt=Rj​for every j.

For a power function PPP, its energy is EP(S)=∫t0t1P(s(t)) dtE_P(S)=\int_{t_0}^{t_1}P(s(t))\,dtEP​(S)=∫t0​t1​​P(s(t))dt. An optimal schedule minimizes this quantity among feasible schedules. These definitions follow §2, p. 375. The intensity of an interval [z,z′][z,z'][z,z′] is the total work of jobs whose full windows it contains, divided by z′−zz'-zz′−z. An interval with maximum intensity is critical; Theorem 1 identifies the processor speed on that interval in an optimal schedule §3, p. 375.

Each job's density is dj=Rj/(bj−aj)d_j=R_j/(b_j-a_j)dj​=Rj​/(bj​−aj​), extended as a step function equal to djd_jdj​ on [aj,bj][a_j,b_j][aj​,bj​] and zero elsewhere. AVR runs at speed ∑jdj(t)\sum_j d_j(t)∑j​dj​(t) and chooses the earliest-deadline available job. For quadratic power, its energy is

AVR⁡(J)=∫t0t1(∑jdj(t))2dt.\operatorname{AVR}(J)=\int_{t_0}^{t_1}\left(\sum_jd_j(t)\right)^2dt.AVR(J)=∫t0​t1​​(j∑​dj​(t))2dt.

The competitive ratio is the least upper bound of AVR⁡(J)/OPT⁡(J)\operatorname{AVR}(J)/\operatorname{OPT}(J)AVR(J)/OPT(J) over instances, where OPT⁡(J)\operatorname{OPT}(J)OPT(J) is the least feasible energy §4, p. 376, Eq. (2).

Formalization targets

The goal is the paper's Theorem 2, p. 381:

4≤r≤8(P(s)=s2).4\le r\le 8\qquad(P(s)=s^2).4≤r≤8(P(s)=s2).

The upper bound compares AVR with every feasible schedule. The lower bound says that every constant strictly below four is exceeded by the AVR-to-feasible-energy ratio on some instance. This formulation does not claim that one finite instance attains four.

The milestone path follows the paper: Theorem 1 characterizes optimal speed; Lemma 5.1 reduces to jobs of type A or B; Eq. (5) splits their costs; Lemma 5.2 and Eq. (7) control the A contribution; Lemmas 5.3–5.6 reduce the analysis to canonical instances; Lemma 5.8 supplies a matrix bound; Lemma 5.7 gives FA≤4OPT⁡AF_A\le4\operatorname{OPT}_AFA​≤4OPTA​ and FB≤4OPT⁡BF_B\le4\operatorname{OPT}_BFB​≤4OPTB​; Example 2 approaches the lower constant. These statements and their order come from §5, pp. 378–381. The paper also states a higher-power result, Theorem 3, for real p≥2p\ge2p≥2:

pp≤rp≤2p−1pp.p^p\le r_p\le 2^{p-1}p^p.pp≤rp​≤2p−1pp.

That result is a companion item. The extended abstract leaves its full proof to a longer paper §6, pp. 381–382.

What the bounds provide

The upper bound guarantees that AVR's energy is controlled by a fixed multiple of the offline optimum for every finite job set, even though AVR sets speed from individual job densities. The lower family rules out a guarantee below four for this heuristic. Together they delimit the performance of AVR under quadratic power; they do not give its exact worst-case ratio. The A/B reductions and the tree-induced matrix estimate are useful mathematical interfaces for later analyses of interval-structured schedules.

The paper proves Theorem 2 in the mathematical sense. This mission supplies machine-checkable statements and definitions, with proofs left open for solvers. Closing it requires formal proofs of the reduction steps, the matrix estimate, and the limiting example, plus an explicit connection from the optimal-schedule analysis to comparison with every feasible schedule. No completed Lean proof is claimed here.

The main difficulty

The simple calculation (∑jdj(t))2\left(\sum_j d_j(t)\right)^2(∑j​dj​(t))2 exposes overlap between job windows but does not say how that overlap compares with an optimal schedule. An optimal schedule may run jobs in a different order and may preempt them. The paper therefore changes the instance while preserving the optimal speed profile: it first separates cumulative execution into two types, then reduces to single execution intervals and specially aligned, nested windows. The matrix inequality controls the resulting expression. A pointwise comparison of AVR speed with optimal speed cannot replace these reductions, because an optimal schedule can concentrate work on critical intervals while AVR spreads each job's density across its entire window §5, pp. 377–381.

Formalization scope

Jobs use Fin n, allowing the empty instance. The instance requires t0<t1t_0<t_1t0​<t1​, aj<bja_j<b_jaj​<bj​, containment in the window, and Rj≥0R_j\ge0Rj​≥0. A schedule uses real-valued speed and an optional job label; none denotes no assigned job. Its piecewise-constant requirement is witnessed by finitely many increasing breakpoints. Values at breakpoints are unrestricted by the piecewise-constant clauses, and speed comparisons in the theorems are almost-everywhere statements. Job windows are closed, as printed; endpoints do not affect the integrals. A schedule may have positive speed while no job is assigned, since the source does not equate idleness with zero speed.

Every energy expression is a real interval integral. The schedule conditions ensure the integrands in theorem hypotheses are piecewise constant away from finitely many points. Density denominators are positive. An execution-speed quotient for a zero-work job can have zero denominator, in which case Lean returns zero; such a job contributes no executed work. The goal uses quantified comparisons with feasible schedules rather than a real infimum, and Lemma 5.6 uses all upper bounds on a nonempty canonical family rather than a real supremum. The lower bounds quantify over every smaller constant, avoiding a false attainment claim. These choices guard against default values for empty or unbounded extrema.

Theorem 1's printed convexity hypothesis is strengthened to strict convexity and nondecreasing power on nonnegative speeds: its stated speed uniqueness fails for a linear power function, and a decreasing power function rewards idle speed. This repair is explicit in that item's description. Existence of a quadratic optimum is included as a milestone from the algorithm of §3, although it is not a separately numbered theorem. Example 2 includes the variable exponent e≥1e\ge1e≥1, the limiting ratios at e=1e=1e=1 and e=3/2e=3/2e=3/2, and an eventual upper bound of four across the family. The A-job order resolves exact ties by index. For canonical and tree-induced nesting, intervals that meet only at an endpoint count as disjoint; this admits the paper's displayed four-interval matrix.

The development needs Mathlib's real interval integrals, finite sums, measures of intervals, matrix eigenvalues, and real-power limits. The finite schedule model, canonical-instance data, and tree-induced matrix interface can be reused beyond this particular ratio bound. Contributions may establish these interfaces' elementary properties, the paper's milestone theorems, or independent proofs of the goal, provided they preserve the stated job and schedule classes.

Selected references

  • Frances Yao, Alan Demers, and Scott Shenker, A Scheduling Model for Reduced CPU Energy, Proceedings of the 36th IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science, 1995, pp. 374–382. DOI 10.1109/SFCS.1995.492493.
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Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems 4: Time Reversal Is a J₁ Isometry and Reversal from the Origin Is 2-LipschitzResearch Paper

Why time reversal matters

Functional limit theorems describe the behavior of entire time-indexed paths under scaling. In queueing and other stochastic models, a path of departures, workload, or accumulated input may be related to another path by reversing a finite observation window. To carry a limit theorem through that change of viewpoint, one needs to know how reversal acts on the topology of the path space. Ward Whitt's 1980 paper studies composition, reflection, first passage, and time reversal as maps that transfer functional limit theorems to derived processes (Whitt 1980).

The time-reversal result is a precise metric statement. Ordinary reversal preserves the Skorohod J1J_1J1​ distance exactly. A version shifted to begin at the group identity satisfies a bound with constant two. These facts give continuity and, when the random paths satisfy the hypotheses, make reversal available to the continuous mapping theorem. Whitt's introduction explains how deterministic path continuity connects to stochastic-process limits (Whitt 1980, pp. 67–69).

Paths, distances, and reversal

Let SSS be a complete separable metric group, written additively, with identity 000 and metric mmm. The metric is translation invariant: moving both points by the same group element leaves their distance unchanged. Let DDD contain the càdlàg paths x:[0,1]→Sx:[0,1]\to Sx:[0,1]→S, meaning paths that are right continuous and possess left limits. Section 8 additionally requires x(1)=x(1−)x(1)=x(1-)x(1)=x(1−), so the terminal value agrees with the value approached from earlier times. Let Dθ={x∈D:x(0)=0}D_\theta=\{x\in D:x(0)=0\}Dθ​={x∈D:x(0)=0}. These are the spaces Whitt fixes for time reversal (Whitt 1980, p. 83).

The uniform distance is ρ(x,y)=sup⁡0≤t≤1m(x(t),y(t))\rho(x,y)=\sup_{0\le t\le1}m(x(t),y(t))ρ(x,y)=sup0≤t≤1​m(x(t),y(t)). A time change λ∈Λ\lambda\in\Lambdaλ∈Λ is an increasing homeomorphism of [0,1][0,1][0,1] onto itself; e(t)=te(t)=te(t)=t is the identity time change. The J1J_1J1​ distance used in the paper is

d(x,y)=inf⁡λ∈Λmax⁡{ρ(λ,e),ρ(x,y∘λ)}.d(x,y)=\inf_{\lambda\in\Lambda} \max\{\rho(\lambda,e),\rho(x,y\circ\lambda)\}.d(x,y)=λ∈Λinf​max{ρ(λ,e),ρ(x,y∘λ)}.

Two paths may be close when their values can be matched after a small distortion of time. This is the paper's equation (2.1), rather than an unspecified equivalent J1J_1J1​ metric (Whitt 1980, p. 70).

The reverse-time map reads the left limit at the reflected time:

R(x)(t)={x((1−t)−),0≤t<1,x(0),t=1,r(x)(t)=R(x)(t)−x(1).R(x)(t)= \begin{cases} x((1-t)-),&0\le t<1,\\ x(0),&t=1, \end{cases} \qquad r(x)(t)=R(x)(t)-x(1).R(x)(t)={x((1−t)−),x(0),​0≤t<1,t=1,​r(x)(t)=R(x)(t)−x(1).

The left limit is essential: the direct value x(1−t)x(1-t)x(1−t) places jumps on the wrong side and generally does not give a right-continuous reverse path. The terminal convention gives R(x)(0)=x(1)R(x)(0)=x(1)R(x)(0)=x(1), so r(x)(0)=0r(x)(0)=0r(x)(0)=0. Whitt also uses the reflected time change (−r)(λ)(t)=1−λ(1−t)(-r)(\lambda)(t)=1-\lambda(1-t)(−r)(λ)(t)=1−λ(1−t) in the proof (Whitt 1980, pp. 83–84).

Formalization targets

The goal is Whitt's Theorem 8.1. For every x,y∈Dx,y\in Dx,y∈D,

d(Rx,Ry)=d(x,y),d(rx,ry)≤2d(x,y).d(Rx,Ry)=d(x,y),\qquad d(rx,ry)\le 2d(x,y).d(Rx,Ry)=d(x,y),d(rx,ry)≤2d(x,y).

The second inequality also applies when both paths lie in DθD_\thetaDθ​, since Dθ⊆DD_\theta\subseteq DDθ​⊆D. The constant is the paper's printed constant, not a parameter to optimize in this mission (Whitt 1980, Theorem 8.1, p. 83).

The milestones record four claims from the theorem's proof: reversal preserves its path spaces and has inverse behavior on its natural domains; reflected time changes stay in Λ\LambdaΛ; reversal obeys exact and bounded uniform-distance relations; and reversal interacts with time changes through (−r)(λ)(-r)(\lambda)(−r)(λ). Their descriptions reproduce the printed proof sentences. The proof calls the time-change cost a “minimum” once, although equation (2.1) and the displayed calculation use a maximum. The formal target follows equation (2.1) (Whitt 1980, pp. 70, 84).

What the result gives

An isometry preserves every J1J_1J1​ distance, so ordinary reversal preserves convergent and Cauchy sequences in this metric. The bound for rrr makes shifted reversal Lipschitz and therefore continuous. A functional limit theorem for input paths can then be translated into one for the corresponding reversed paths whenever the path-space hypotheses hold. The result is already proved in Whitt's paper; the open work here is a machine-checked development of its definitions, supporting claims, and metric theorem.

Formalizing the result also creates reusable interfaces for endpoint-constrained càdlàg paths, left-limit reversal, uniform path distance, and reflected time changes. Those interfaces may support later statements about reversed stochastic models. This mission does not assert weak convergence of probability laws or Borel measurability; those would require a separate measurable-space development for DDD.

Mathematical difficulty

The immediate idea t↦x(1−t)t\mapsto x(1-t)t↦x(1−t) does not preserve càdlàg paths at jumps: a right-continuous jump becomes left-continuous. The correction uses left limits, but endpoint behavior then matters. Without x(1)=x(1−)x(1)=x(1-)x(1)=x(1−), the shifted reverse path need not start at the identity. The J1J_1J1​ assertion also concerns an infimum over all allowed time changes, so a uniform-distance statement alone does not establish the theorem. These are the points at which reflection of the time axis becomes a claim about the precise path-space topology (Whitt 1980, pp. 83–84).

Formalization scope

Lean represents paths as total functions R→S\mathbb R\to SR→S; all path conditions, metrics, and equality claims read only [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Càdlàg membership requires right continuity and left limits within the interval, with x(1)=x(1−)x(1)=x(1-)x(1)=x(1−) included in DDD. Completeness and separability are explicit because the paper calls SSS a complete separable metric space. The additive metric group is represented by an additive commutative group with an explicit translation-invariance hypothesis. This chooses the commutative reading exemplified by S=RkS=\mathbb R^kS=Rk; the paper uses additive notation but does not separately state commutativity.

The paper's Λ\LambdaΛ is encoded by strict increase, continuity, and surjectivity on [0,1][0,1][0,1], which characterize increasing homeomorphisms there. The paper's ddd is equation (2.1) on both sides of the goal. Lean uses extended nonnegative distances for ρ\rhoρ and ddd, avoiding the default value a real supremum can assign to an empty or unbounded set. The claims do not become trivial by dropping DDD membership: it is an explicit hypothesis, and the zero path over R\mathbb RR satisfies it. A local, sorry-free check confirms that instance. Two easier statements are excluded on purpose: the goal is stated for the J1J_1J1​ distance ddd, not the uniform distance ρ\rhoρ, and RRR reads the left limit x((1−t)−)x((1-t)-)x((1−t)−), not the value x(1−t)x(1-t)x(1−t).

The proof's first sentence says the maps are one-to-one and onto. The map r:D→Dθr:D\to D_\thetar:D→Dθ​ forgets an additive offset and is not injective on all of DDD; the formal milestone expresses involution for RRR on DDD and for the restriction of rrr to DθD_\thetaDθ​. One identity printed for rrr with x∈Dθx\in D_\thetax∈Dθ​ also holds for every x∈Dx\in Dx∈D; the formal milestone uses that broader domain and says so in its item description. Contributions are welcome for the left-limit and time-change infrastructure as well as the four listed statements and the goal.

Selected references

  • Ward Whitt, Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems, Mathematics of Operations Research 5(1), 1980, pp. 67–85. DOI: 10.1287/moor.5.1.67.
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Discrete Dynamic Programming with Sensitive Discount Optimality Criteria 2: No Improvement of Order n+1 Implies n-Discount Optimality, Which Rules Out Improvement of Order nResearch Paper

Motivation

A finite Markov decision process is usually solved under one of two criteria: the expected total discounted reward, for a fixed interest rate, or the long-run average reward. Neither is satisfactory when the interest rate is small and not known precisely. Blackwell (Blackwell 1962) showed that some stationary policy is optimal for every discount factor close enough to one, and that the average-reward criterion cannot tell apart policies with the same gain but very different transient rewards. Veinott's 1969 paper interpolates between these two: it introduces a hierarchy of nnn-discount optimality criteria, indexed by n=−1,0,1,…n=-1,0,1,\dotsn=−1,0,1,…, each more selective than the previous, and characterizes the stationary policies that meet each level through the Laurent expansion of the discounted return in the interest rate.

Timeline. Blackwell (1962) introduced the expansion of the discounted return near β=1\beta=1β=1 to first order and the criteria now called −1+-1^+−1+ and ∞+\infty^+∞+ discount optimality. Veinott (1966) gave a policy improvement method for the bias (0+0^+0+) criterion. Miller and Veinott (1969) gave the full Laurent expansion and a policy improvement algorithm for Blackwell optimality in the stochastic case. The present paper (1969) extends this to substochastic transition matrices and to negative interest rates in the transient case, defines the n±n^\pmn± criteria, and proves Theorem 4, the subject of this mission.

Setting

There are finitely many states sss (the paper's 1,…,S1,\dots,S1,…,S); in each state a finite nonempty action set AsA_sAs​. Action aaa in state sss earns r(s,a)∈Rr(s,a)\in\mathbb Rr(s,a)∈R and leads to state ttt with weight p(t∣s,a)≥0p(t\mid s,a)\ge0p(t∣s,a)≥0, where ∑tp(t∣s,a)≤1\sum_t p(t\mid s,a)\le1∑t​p(t∣s,a)≤1 (the remaining mass is the probability of stopping). A decision rule f∈F=×sAsf\in F=\times_s A_sf∈F=×s​As​ picks one action per state; r(f)r(f)r(f) and P(f)P(f)P(f) are its reward vector and substochastic transition matrix, Q(f)=P(f)−IQ(f)=P(f)-IQ(f)=P(f)−I. A policy is a sequence π=(f1,f2,… )\pi=(f_1,f_2,\dots)π=(f1​,f2​,…) of decision rules, f∞=(f,f,… )f^\infty=(f,f,\dots)f∞=(f,f,…) is a stationary policy, and PN(π)=P(f1)⋯P(fN)P^N(\pi)=P(f_1)\cdots P(f_N)PN(π)=P(f1​)⋯P(fN​).

For an interest rate ρ>−1\rho>-1ρ>−1 and β=(1+ρ)−1\beta=(1+\rho)^{-1}β=(1+ρ)−1, the discounted return is

Vρ(π)=∑N=1∞βNPN−1(π) r(fN).V_\rho(\pi)=\sum_{N=1}^{\infty}\beta^N P^{N-1}(\pi)\,r(f_N).Vρ​(π)=N=1∑∞​βNPN−1(π)r(fN​).

For a substochastic PPP, P∗P^*P∗ is the Cesàro limit of its powers and H=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗H=(I-P+P^*)^{-1}-P^*H=(I−P+P∗)−1−P∗ its deviation matrix.

A policy π∗\pi^*π∗ is n±n^\pmn± discount optimal if, componentwise,

lim inf⁡ρ→0±∣ρ∣−n [Vρ(π∗)−Vρ(π)]≥0for all policies π.\liminf_{\rho\to0\pm}|\rho|^{-n}\,[V_\rho(\pi^*)-V_\rho(\pi)]\ge0\quad\text{for all policies }\pi .ρ→0±liminf​∣ρ∣−n[Vρ​(π∗)−Vρ​(π)]≥0for all policies π.

Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ is the set of fff with f∞f^\inftyf∞ n±n^\pmn± discount optimal, and D−2=FD_{-2}=FD−2​=F. The sign −-− (interest rate approaching zero from below) is considered only in the transient case, where ∑NP(f)N\sum_N P(f)^N∑N​P(f)N converges for every fff.

The Laurent coefficients of Vρ(f∞)V_\rho(f^\infty)Vρ​(f∞) are y−1±(f)=±P∗(f)r(f)y_{-1}^\pm(f)=\pm P^*(f)r(f)y−1±​(f)=±P∗(f)r(f) and yn±(f)=(∓1)nH(f)n+1r(f)y_n^\pm(f)=(\mp1)^nH(f)^{n+1}r(f)yn±​(f)=(∓1)nH(f)n+1r(f), n≥0n\ge0n≥0; with y−2±=0y_{-2}^\pm=0y−2±​=0 and r0=rr_0=rr0​=r, rn=0r_n=0rn​=0 otherwise, the test quantities are

ψn±(g,f)=rn(g)+Q(g) yn±(f)∓yn−1±(f),n≥−1.\psi_n^\pm(g,f)=r_n(g)+Q(g)\,y_n^\pm(f)\mp y_{n-1}^\pm(f),\qquad n\ge-1 .ψn±​(g,f)=rn​(g)+Q(g)yn±​(f)∓yn−1±​(f),n≥−1.

Ψn±(g,f)\Psi_n^\pm(g,f)Ψn±​(g,f) is the matrix with columns ψ−1±,…,ψn±\psi_{-1}^\pm,\dots,\psi_n^\pmψ−1±​,…,ψn±​, and Gn±(f)={g∈F:Ψn±(g,f)≻0}G_n^\pm(f)=\{g\in F:\Psi_n^\pm(g,f)\succ0\}Gn±​(f)={g∈F:Ψn±​(g,f)≻0}, where C≻0C\succ0C≻0 means that the first nonzero entry of every row of CCC is positive and C≠0C\ne0C=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

For f∈Ff\in Ff∈F and n=−2,−1,…,S−1n=-2,-1,\dots,S-1n=−2,−1,…,S−1:

Gn+1±(f)=∅ ⟹ f∈Dn±,f∈Dn± ⟹ Gn±(f)=∅.G_{n+1}^\pm(f)=\varnothing\ \Longrightarrow\ f\in D_n^\pm,\qquad f\in D_n^\pm\ \Longrightarrow\ G_n^\pm(f)=\varnothing .Gn+1±​(f)=∅ ⟹ f∈Dn±​,f∈Dn±​ ⟹ Gn±​(f)=∅.

The two halves bracket Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ between two finitely checkable conditions.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the Cesàro limit and (15); Lemma 5 (the reduced resolvent); Theorem 2 (the Laurent expansion Rρ(Q)=ρ−1P∗+∑n≥0(−ρ)nHn+1R_\rho(Q)=\rho^{-1}P^*+\sum_{n\ge0}(-\rho)^nH^{n+1}Rρ​(Q)=ρ−1P∗+∑n≥0​(−ρ)nHn+1); Lemma 7 (P∗+ρHP^*+\rho HP∗+ρH nonnegative, positive diagonal, nonsingular for small ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0); Theorem 3 (the expansion of Vρ(f∞)V_\rho(f^\infty)Vρ​(f∞)); (30)–(31) (the comparison identity); Lemma 8 (the expansion of the test quantity); Lemma 9 (the coefficient identity); the nonemptiness of D∞±D_\infty^\pmD∞±​; the characterization Dn±={f:Yn±(f)⪰Yn±(g) ∀g}D_n^\pm=\{f: Y_n^\pm(f)\succeq Y_n^\pm(g)\ \forall g\}Dn±​={f:Yn±​(f)⪰Yn±​(g) ∀g}; Theorem 5 (lexicographic improvement).

Significance

Theorem 4 turns a criterion stated through limits over all, possibly non-stationary, policies into a finite test on one-step switches. It is what lets the policy improvement method of Miller and Veinott stop early when only an n±n^\pmn± discount optimal policy is sought, rather than an S±S^\pmS± (Blackwell) optimal one, and it recovers Blackwell's algorithm for −1+-1^+−1+ and Veinott's 1966 algorithm for 0+0^+0+ as the cases n=−1,0n=-1,0n=−1,0. The nnn-discount hierarchy is the standard framework for sensitive optimality in Markov decision processes and underlies the average-overtaking and bias criteria used in later work.

The results are proved in the paper (Theorem 3 and Lemma 8 by reference to Miller–Veinott). None of them is formalized: the platform has the Cesàro limit matrix and the deviation matrix as definitions (from Blackwell 1962), and an open statement of their basic properties for stochastic matrices only. This mission adds the substochastic matrix theory of §3, the Laurent expansion of discounted returns with Veinott's normalization, and the lexicographic characterization of n±n^\pmn± discount optimality.

Difficulty

The definition of Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ compares f∞f^\inftyf∞ with every policy, and the comparison is a liminf of a scaled difference of infinite series. The obvious route, comparing Laurent coefficients, applies only to stationary policies, whose returns have Laurent expansions; reducing the comparison with arbitrary policies to stationary ones requires the existence of an ∞±\infty^\pm∞± discount optimal stationary policy, which is a separate existence theorem. The second difficulty is that P∗P^*P∗ may be singular or zero and the chain may have several recurrent classes: Lemma 7 is what replaces an analysis of the chain structure in the inductive step of the proof.

Formalization scope

Lean 4 with Mathlib, namespace VeinottSensitiveDP.Sensitive. States form a nonempty Fintype; each state has its own finite nonempty action type A s; policies are sequences ℕ → F with π 0 the paper's f1f_1f1​. All quantities are real. P∗P^*P∗ and HHH are the published limitMatrix and deviationMatrix; their properties for substochastic matrices are milestones, not assumptions. VρV_\rhoVρ​ is a tsum with Veinott's extra factor β\betaβ; every theorem about it carries the hypotheses under which the series converges. The spectral radius is that of the complexified matrix. The sign ±\pm± is a real parameter σ∈{1,−1}\sigma\in\{1,-1\}σ∈{1,−1}, and statements for σ=−1\sigma=-1σ=−1 assume the transient case. The liminf in (27) is encoded as "for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually ≥−ε\ge-\varepsilon≥−ε", which is the extended-real liminf. Matrices with columns −1,…,n-1,\dots,n−1,…,n are functions of an integer column index read on [−1,n][-1,n][−1,n].

A trivializing formalization would define Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ by comparison with stationary policies only, or directly as the lexicographic maximizers of Yn±Y_n^\pmYn±​; here Dn±D_n^\pmDn±​ is defined by (27) against all policies, and the lexicographic characterization is a milestone.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the matrix results of §3 (reusable for any work on deviation matrices and Laurent expansions of Markov chains), of the Laurent expansions, and of the existence of ∞±\infty^\pm∞± discount optimal stationary policies.

Selected references

  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete dynamic programming with sensitive discount optimality criteria, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(5):1635–1660, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697379
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete dynamic programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 33(2):719–726, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., On finding optimal policies in discrete dynamic programming with no discounting, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(5):1284–1294, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699272
  • B. L. Miller and A. F. Veinott, Jr., Discrete dynamic programming with a small interest rate, Ann. Math. Statist. 40(2):366–370, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177697700
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment II: With a Fixed Order Cost, a World-Dependent (r, S) Policy Is Optimal and Lies within Veinott-Type BoundsResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand for many products is not stationary: it rises and falls with the economy, the season, a product's life cycle or a customer's state. Song and Zipkin (1993) (DOI 10.1287/opre.41.2.351) model this by a world-driven demand process: an exogenous Markov chain AAA (the "state of the world") whose current state sets the rate of a Poisson demand stream. The model contains the classical stationary inventory model as the case of one world state, and it is a standard example of a Markov-modulated decision problem in operations research.

For stationary demand with a fixed order cost, optimal (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) policies go back to Scarf (1960) for finite horizons and Iglehart (1963) for the infinite horizon; Veinott (1966) bounded the optimal parameters by quantities computed from the one-period cost alone. This mission formalizes the extension of both results to the fluctuating-demand model (§3.2 of the paper). A companion mission treats the linear order-cost case, in which a world-dependent basestock policy is optimal.

Setting

The world AAA is a continuous-time Markov chain on a countable set III with generator (qij)(q_{ij})(qij​), qi=−qii=∑j≠iqijq_i = -q_{ii} = \sum_{j\neq i} q_{ij}qi​=−qii​=∑j=i​qij​, and bounded rates. While A=iA = iA=i, unit demands arrive at Poisson rate λi\lambda_iλi​; shortages are backlogged. An order arrives after a random lead time LLL, independent of the world and the demand. The inventory position x∈Zx \in \mathbb Zx∈Z is on-hand stock minus backorders plus stock on order.

Costs: a fixed cost Kˉ\bar KKˉ per order and a unit cost cˉ\bar ccˉ, both paid on arrival; a holding cost rate h>0h > 0h>0 and a penalty cost rate p>0p > 0p>0; a discount rate α>0\alpha > 0α>0. With F~L(α)=E[e−αL]\tilde F_L(\alpha) = E[e^{-\alpha L}]F~L​(α)=E[e−αL], the discounted costs are c=cˉF~L(α)c = \bar c\tilde F_L(\alpha)c=cˉF~L​(α) and K=KˉF~L(α)K = \bar K\tilde F_L(\alpha)K=KˉF~L​(α). If DLiD^i_LDLi​ is the demand during a lead time from world state iii and C^(x)=max⁡{−px,hx}\hat C(x) = \max\{-px, hx\}C^(x)=max{−px,hx},

C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi)].C(i, y) = E\big[e^{-\alpha L}\hat C(y - D^i_L)\big].C(i,y)=E[e−αLC^(y−DLi​)].

Uniformization at a rate μ≥sup⁡iqi+sup⁡iλi\mu \ge \sup_i q_i + \sup_i\lambda_iμ≥supi​qi​+supi​λi​ turns the problem into a discrete-time dynamic program with β=1/(μ+α)\beta = 1/(\mu+\alpha)β=1/(μ+α), γ=βμ\gamma = \beta\muγ=βμ and the myopic cost G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y)G^+(i, y) = (1-\gamma)cy + \beta C(i, y)G+(i,y)=(1−γ)cy+βC(i,y). For a terminal cost W0W_0W0​ the nnn-stage costs satisfy the recursion (10):

Wn(i,x)=min⁡y≥x{Kδ(y−x)+Gn(i,y)},W_n(i, x) = \min_{y\ge x}\{K\delta(y-x) + G_n(i, y)\},Wn​(i,x)=y≥xmin​{Kδ(y−x)+Gn​(i,y)}, Gn(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλic+β{λiWn−1(i,y−1)+∑j≠iqijWn−1(j,y)+(μ−λi−qi)Wn−1(i,y)},G_n(i, y) = G^+(i, y) + \beta\lambda_i c + \beta\Big\{\lambda_i W_{n-1}(i, y-1) + \sum_{j\neq i} q_{ij}W_{n-1}(j, y) + (\mu - \lambda_i - q_i)W_{n-1}(i, y)\Big\},Gn​(i,y)=G+(i,y)+βλi​c+β{λi​Wn−1​(i,y−1)+j=i∑​qij​Wn−1​(j,y)+(μ−λi​−qi​)Wn−1​(i,y)},

where δ(z)=1\delta(z) = 1δ(z)=1 if z>0z > 0z>0 and δ(0)=0\delta(0) = 0δ(0)=0. Throughout, Assumption 1, αcˉ<p\alpha\bar c < pαcˉ<p, holds and K>0K > 0K>0. The terminal cost is the optimal cost W∞W_\inftyW∞​ of the linear model (K=0K = 0K=0); its G∞G_\inftyG∞​ is written G0G_0G0​, and y∗(i)y^*(i)y∗(i) is the smallest minimizer of G0(i,⋅)G_0(i, \cdot)G0​(i,⋅).

A function f:Z→Rf : \mathbb Z \to \mathbb Rf:Z→R is KKK-convex (Definition 2) if f(x)−f(x−b)ba+f(x)≤f(x+a)+K\frac{f(x)-f(x-b)}{b}a + f(x) \le f(x+a) + Kbf(x)−f(x−b)​a+f(x)≤f(x+a)+K for all xxx and all integers a,b>0a, b > 0a,b>0. The (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) policy with parameters {(r(i),S(i))}\{(r(i), S(i))\}{(r(i),S(i))} orders up to S(i)S(i)S(i) when x≤r(i)x \le r(i)x≤r(i) and the world is in state iii, and does not order otherwise. With y+(i)y^+(i)y+(i) the smallest minimizer of G+(i,⋅)G^+(i,\cdot)G+(i,⋅) and ymin⁡+=min⁡iy+(i)y^+_{\min} = \min_i y^+(i)ymin+​=mini​y+(i), the paper defines

S+(i)=min⁡{y≥y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>γK},r+(i)=max⁡{y<y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>(1−γ)K},r−(i)=max⁡{y<y∗(i):G0(i,y)−G0(i,y∗(i))>K},r−−(i)=max⁡{y<ymin⁡+:G+(i,y)−G+(i,ymin⁡+)>K}.\begin{aligned} S^+(i) &= \min\{y \ge y^+(i) : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+(i)) > \gamma K\},\\ r^+(i) &= \max\{y < y^+(i) : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+(i)) > (1-\gamma)K\},\\ r^-(i) &= \max\{y < y^*(i) : G_0(i, y) - G_0(i, y^*(i)) > K\},\\ r^{--}(i) &= \max\{y < y^+_{\min} : G^+(i, y) - G^+(i, y^+_{\min}) > K\}. \end{aligned}S+(i)r+(i)r−(i)r−−(i)​=min{y≥y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>γK},=max{y<y+(i):G+(i,y)−G+(i,y+(i))>(1−γ)K},=max{y<y∗(i):G0​(i,y)−G0​(i,y∗(i))>K},=max{y<ymin+​:G+(i,y)−G+(i,ymin+​)>K}.​

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorems 5(e) and 6

Let Sn∗(i)S^*_n(i)Sn∗​(i) be the smallest minimizer of Gn(i,⋅)G_n(i,\cdot)Gn​(i,⋅) and rn∗(i)r^*_n(i)rn∗​(i) the largest y<Sn∗(i)y < S^*_n(i)y<Sn∗​(i) with Gn(i,y)>K+Gn(i,Sn∗(i))G_n(i, y) > K + G_n(i, S^*_n(i))Gn​(i,y)>K+Gn​(i,Sn∗​(i)). For every iii the sequence (rn∗(i),Sn∗(i))(r^*_n(i), S^*_n(i))(rn∗​(i),Sn∗​(i)) has limit points; for any choice of limit points (r∗(i),S∗(i))(r^*(i), S^*(i))(r∗(i),S∗(i)), the world-dependent (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) policy with these parameters is optimal for the infinite-horizon discounted problem, and

y∗(i)≤S∗(i)<S+(i),r−−(i)≤r−(i)≤r∗(i)≤r+(i).y^*(i) \le S^*(i) < S^+(i),\qquad r^{--}(i) \le r^-(i) \le r^*(i) \le r^+(i).y∗(i)≤S∗(i)<S+(i),r−−(i)≤r−(i)≤r∗(i)≤r+(i).

Milestones

Lemma 4 (uniform bounds on the iterates); Theorem 3 (KKK-convexity of GnG_nGn​, WnW_nWn​ and optimality of an (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) rule for each nnn-stage problem); Lemmas 5 and 6 (difference comparisons); Theorem 4 (the bounds above for every nnn); Theorem 5(a)–(d) (convergence of WnW_nWn​, GnG_nGn​, the (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) property of limit points, and the optimality equation (2)).

Significance

The result shows that the classical (s,S)(s, S)(s,S) structure survives Markov modulation of demand with an infinite world space and stochastic lead times: a stationary policy whose two parameters depend only on the current world state is optimal over the infinite horizon. The bounds of Theorem 6 locate those parameters in an interval computed from the myopic cost G+G^+G+ and the linear model alone, uniformly in the horizon.

The results are proved in the paper, except that Theorem 5 refers to Iglehart (1963) and Lemma 4 to Song's thesis. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would also produce reusable machinery: KKK-convexity on the integers, the Scarf-type inductive argument with a countable world state, and the passage from finite-horizon to infinite-horizon optimality for a nonnegative-cost Markov decision process with unbounded costs.

Difficulty

The one-period cost is unbounded in xxx and the world space may be infinite, so the usual contraction argument for discounted dynamic programs does not apply. Convergence of WnW_nWn​ needs the uniform bound of Lemma 4. Optimality of the limit policy needs a separate argument, because a pointwise limit of (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) rules need not exist: the parameter sequences are only known to have limit points. The lower bounds r−r^-r− and r−−r^{--}r−− hold only because the terminal cost is the linear model's optimal cost, which makes the difference comparisons of Lemma 6 possible; the paper notes that Lemma 6 depends on this choice of W0W_0W0​.

Formalization scope

All definitions live in the namespace SongZipkinFluct.FixedCost. Inventory positions and order-up-to levels are integers. The demand law DLiD^i_LDLi​ is defined through uniformization at rate μ\muμ, as an exact series representation of the Markov-modulated Poisson count, and the lead time is a probability law on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) independent of the rest. The standing conventions h,p,α>0h, p, \alpha > 0h,p,α>0, cˉ,Kˉ≥0\bar c, \bar K \ge 0cˉ,Kˉ≥0, μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and μ≥q∗+λ∗\mu \ge q^* + \lambda^*μ≥q∗+λ∗ are hypotheses of the model. Assumption 1 and Kˉ>0\bar K > 0Kˉ>0 are hypotheses of each theorem.

The iterates WnW_nWn​ are defined by the recursion (10), with the minimum written as an infimum over integers y≥xy \ge xy≥x. W∞W_\inftyW∞​ and G∞G_\inftyG∞​ are the suprema over nnn, which are finite and equal the limits by Lemma 4 and Theorem 3. Every minimizer and every extremal integer (y+y^+y+, ymin⁡+y^+_{\min}ymin+​, y∗y^*y∗, Sn∗S^*_nSn∗​, rn∗r^*_nrn∗​, S+S^+S+, r+r^+r+, r−r^-r−, r−−r^{--}r−−) is passed through its defining property, never through sInf/sSup on Z\mathbb ZZ. The goal also asserts that all of them exist, so its hypotheses can be met. A limit point of an integer sequence is a value taken infinitely often.

Optimality is over all deterministic history-dependent feasible policies and from every initial state. Costs are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and a policy's cost is the supremum of its finite-horizon discounted costs in the uniformized problem (1). Restricting the comparison to (r,S)(r, S)(r,S) or stationary policies would trivialize the goal and is ruled out. KKK-convexity is the integer version of Definition 2, not convexity over Z\mathbb ZZ-scalars.

Welcome contributions: KKK-convexity calculus on Z\mathbb ZZ, convergence of the uniformized demand series, Lemma 4, and an Iglehart-type limit argument for countable-state Markov decision processes with nonnegative costs.

Selected references

  • J.-S. Song and P. Zipkin, Inventory Control in a Fluctuating Demand Environment, Operations Research 41(2):351–370, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.2.351
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2):259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
  • A. F. Veinott, Jr., On the Optimality of (s, S) Inventory Policies: New Conditions and a New Proof, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 14(5):1067–1083, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1137/0114086
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978.
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Optimal Ordering and Rationing Policies in a Nonstationary Dynamic Inventory Model with n Demand Classes III: Under Full Backlogging, Class-j Rationing Levels Ignore Lower-Class Penalties and DemandsResearch Paper

Motivation

A single stock of one product often serves customers of different importance: emergency and routine orders for spare parts, contract and spot customers, high- and low-priority patients for a blood bank. When stock runs low, the question is not only how much to order but how much of the remaining stock to hand to the less important customers now, and how much to hold back for more important demand that may still arrive. Stock rationing policies answer this question with critical rationing levels: demand of a class is served only while the stock stays above that class's level.

Topkis (1968) studied this problem as a finite-horizon dynamic program with nnn demand classes, nonstationary costs and demands, and an arbitrary degree of backlogging. His Theorem 1 shows that, when each interval has either complete backlogging or none, a policy given by critical levels zˉt1≥⋯≥zˉtn\bar z_t^1 \ge \dots \ge \bar z_t^nzˉt1​≥⋯≥zˉtn​ is optimal. This mission concerns his Theorem 3, which treats the case of complete backlogging: the critical levels of a class do not depend on what happens in the classes below it.

Timeline. Veinott (1965) considered nnn demand classes but imposed the policy with all critical levels equal to 000. Topkis's 1966 report treated n=2n = 2n=2, partially duplicated independently by Evans (1968) and by Kaplan's 1966 report "Stock Rationing", in which, according to Topkis, the result of Theorem 3 was used implicitly. Topkis (1968) extended the analysis to nnn classes and stated Theorem 3 explicitly.

Setting

A period is divided into kkk intervals, indexed backwards: interval ttt is followed by t−1t - 1t−1 further intervals, and interval kkk is the first. There are nnn demand classes; class nnn is the most important. In interval ttt a random demand vector dt=(dt1,…,dtn)≥0d_t = (d_t^1, \dots, d_t^n) \ge 0dt​=(dt1​,…,dtn​)≥0 with law μt\mu_tμt​ and finite means arrives; demands in different intervals are independent. Given the stock zzz and the outstanding demand B=b+dtB = b + d_tB=b+dt​ (backlog bbb plus new demand), the decision is the vector uuu, 0≤u≤B0 \le u \le B0≤u≤B, of demand left unsatisfied; the stock drops to w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0w = z - \mathbf 1 \cdot (B - u) \ge 0w=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0. A penalty pt⋅up_t \cdot upt​⋅u and a holding cost ht(w)h_t(w)ht​(w) are charged, and the backlog carried into the next interval is atua_t uat​u, with at=1a_t = 1at​=1 for complete backlogging. At the end of the period a salvage cost g0(z,b)=v1(z)+v2(z−1⋅b)g_0(z, b) = v_1(z) + v_2(z - \mathbf 1 \cdot b)g0​(z,b)=v1​(z)+v2​(z−1⋅b) is charged.

The standing assumptions are: hth_tht​ convex and continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); v1v_1v1​ convex and continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞); v2v_2v2​ convex and continuous on R\mathbb RR with lim⁡w→−∞D+v2(w)>−∞\lim_{w \to -\infty} D^+ v_2(w) > -\inftylimw→−∞​D+v2​(w)>−∞; and 0≤pt1≤⋯≤ptn0 \le p_t^1 \le \dots \le p_t^n0≤pt1​≤⋯≤ptn​. The minimal expected cost satisfies the recursion (1):

ft(z,B)=inf⁡0≤u≤Bw=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0[pt⋅u+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atu)],gt(z,b)=E ft(z,b+dt).f_t(z, B) = \inf_{\substack{0 \le u \le B \\ w = z - \mathbf 1\cdot(B-u) \ge 0}} \big[p_t \cdot u + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t u)\big], \qquad g_t(z, b) = \mathbb E\, f_t(z, b + d_t).ft​(z,B)=0≤u≤Bw=z−1⋅(B−u)≥0​inf​[pt​⋅u+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​u)],gt​(z,b)=Eft​(z,b+dt​).

With δj\delta_jδj​ the jjj-th unit vector, the critical rationing level zˉtj\bar z_t^jzˉtj​ is +∞+\infty+∞ if w↦ptjw+ht(w)+gt−1(w,atwδj)w \mapsto p_t^j w + h_t(w) + g_{t-1}(w, a_t w \delta_j)w↦ptj​w+ht​(w)+gt−1​(w,at​wδj​) is strictly decreasing on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), and is the smallest minimizer of that function on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) otherwise. D+D^+D+ denotes a right derivative.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Assume at+1=at=⋯=a1=1a_{t+1} = a_t = \dots = a_1 = 1at+1​=at​=⋯=a1​=1 and that the demands of different classes are independent in each interval. Fix a class jjj. Then for two instances of the model that differ only in the penalties pimp_i^mpim​ of the classes m≤j−1m \le j - 1m≤j−1 and in the demand distributions of the classes m≤jm \le jm≤j,

(a) the marginal quantities

Dz+gt(z,zδj)andDε+gt(w,ε(δj−δs)+b)∣ε=0(s>j, bs>0)D_z^+ g_t(z, z\delta_j) \quad\text{and}\quad D_\varepsilon^+ g_t\big(w, \varepsilon(\delta_j - \delta_s) + b\big)\big|_{\varepsilon = 0} \quad (s > j,\ b^s > 0)Dz+​gt​(z,zδj​)andDε+​gt​(w,ε(δj​−δs​)+b)​ε=0​(s>j, bs>0)

coincide, and

(b) the critical rationing levels zˉt+1j\bar z_{t+1}^jzˉt+1j​ coincide.

Milestones

  1. The claim in the proof of Theorem 3 (p. 173): for j<sj < sj<s and Bs>0B^s > 0Bs>0, Dε+gt(z,ε(δj−δs)+B)∣ε=0D_\varepsilon^+ g_t(z, \varepsilon(\delta_j - \delta_s) + B)|_{\varepsilon=0}Dε+​gt​(z,ε(δj​−δs​)+B)∣ε=0​ is independent of B1,…,BjB^1, \dots, B^jB1,…,Bj.
  2. Theorem 3 (a) on its own, from which the page derives (b).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 reduces the size of the problem. Under complete backlogging, class 1 demand does not influence any critical rationing level, and the class-jjj critical levels can be found from a problem with only the n−j+1n - j + 1n−j+1 classes j,…,nj, \dots, nj,…,n, with a degenerate demand distribution for class jjj. Since computing the levels requires tabulating functions of several variables, which Topkis calls prohibitive for large nnn, this is the observation that makes the levels of the most important classes computable.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper by a short sketch that points to two case formulas, (16) and (17), to Theorem 1 (c), and to an interchange of expectation and right derivative. A machine-checked proof would supply the induction, the case analysis and the interchange in full. No formalization of any part of Topkis's paper is known: the result is proved on paper, not formalized.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is an induction on ttt showing that gtg_tgt​ itself does not depend on the lower classes. It fails: gtg_tgt​ does depend on the penalties and demands of every class, since lower-class demand is still served and penalized. Only certain directional derivatives are invariant, and these derivatives depend on the critical levels of every class l≥jl \ge jl≥j and on the optimal rationing decision, which themselves change from one instance to the other unless the invariance is already known for the previous interval. The derivatives are one-sided, may be −∞-\infty−∞ at the boundary, and must be passed through an expectation.

Formalization scope

The Lean development, in namespace TopkisRation.Backlog, fixes these conventions:

  • classes are Fin n (class jjj of the paper is index j−1j-1j−1); intervals are natural numbers counted backwards; vectors are ordered pointwise;
  • ftf_tft​ is defined by the recursion (1), with sInf for the infimum and the Bochner integral for E\mathbb EE, and every statement restricts to z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, b≥0b \ge 0b≥0;
  • D+D^+D+ is an extended-real right derivative (a liminf of difference quotients); Dz+gt(z,zδj)D_z^+ g_t(z, z\delta_j)Dz+​gt​(z,zδj​) is the derivative along the ray in which the stock and the class-jjj backlog move together;
  • zˉtj\bar z_t^jzˉtj​ takes values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R \cup \{+\infty\}R∪{+∞} and is specified by a predicate (smallest minimizer, or +∞+\infty+∞ for a strictly decreasing function), never by a real sInf;
  • the limit in (B) is read as "D+v2D^+ v_2D+v2​ is bounded below";
  • independence of the classes in interval iii is independence of the coordinate maps under μi\mu_iμi​.

"Does not depend on" is stated with two instances MMM, M′M'M′ that agree on every datum the conclusion uses except the freed ones: the same kkk, v1v_1v1​, v2v_2v2​, the same hih_ihi​ and the same pimp_i^mpim​ for m≥jm \ge jm≥j in intervals i≤t+1i \le t+1i≤t+1, and the same class-mmm marginal law for m>jm > jm>j in every interval. The penalty of class jjj itself is not freed. Data of intervals beyond t+1t+1t+1 and the ordering cost are unconstrained. Part (b) is stated for arbitrary critical levels of the two instances; existence of critical levels is part of the paper's §1 and is not assumed away, so (b) is not vacuous. The goal does not assume the p. 173 claim, the case formulas (16)–(17), or Theorem 1. Encoding "does not depend" as "is a function of the remaining data" is ruled out.

Needed infrastructure: one-sided derivatives of convex functions and their monotone limits, interchange of right derivative and expectation for convex integrands, and the convexity and rationing-policy results of §1 (Theorem 1, Lemma 2). These are reusable for the other missions of this series. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a formal version of (16)–(17), and the existence of critical levels.

Selected references

  • D. M. Topkis, Optimal ordering and rationing policies in a nonstationary dynamic inventory model with n demand classes, Management Science 15(3):160–176, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.3.160
  • A. F. Veinott Jr., Optimal policy in a dynamic, single product, nonstationary inventory model with several demand classes, Operations Research 13(5):761–778, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.5.761
  • R. V. Evans, Sales and restocking policies in a single item inventory system, Management Science 14(7):463–472, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.14.7.463
  • A. Kaplan, Stock Rationing, report, December 1966 (reference [4] of Topkis 1968).
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Dynamic Scheduling with Convex Delay Costs: The Generalized cμ Rule: Policies Equalizing the Indices μ_k c_k(W_k/ρ_k) Attain the Heavy-Traffic Lower Bound on Cumulative Delay CostResearch Paper

Motivation

A single server shared by several classes of jobs must decide, at every moment, which class to work on. When each class kkk incurs a linear delay cost ckc_kck​ per unit of waiting time and needs mean service time 1/μk1/\mu_k1/μk​, the classical cμc\mucμ rule (serve the waiting class with the largest ckμkc_k\mu_kck​μk​) minimizes expected cost in many settings, from the M/G/1 queue to discrete-time models (Buyukkoc, Varaiya and Walrand, Adv. Appl. Probab. 1985). Linear costs are a strong restriction: in telecommunications, manufacturing and service systems the penalty for delay often grows faster than linearly, and with convex costs the static priority order of the cμc\mucμ rule is no longer optimal.

Van Mieghem (Ann. Appl. Probab. 1995) proposed the generalized cμc\mucμ rule: with nondecreasing convex delay costs CkC_kCk​ and marginal costs ck=Ck′c_k = C_k'ck​=Ck′​, serve the class with the largest index μkck(⋅)\mu_k c_k(\cdot)μk​ck​(⋅) evaluated at its current delay or workload. The paper proves that, in heavy traffic, this dynamic index policy is asymptotically optimal among all scheduling policies, including policies whose scaled workloads do not converge. This mission formalizes that result and the chain of propositions it rests on.

Setting

There are ddd job classes. In the nnnth system, the iiith class-kkk job arrives after an interarrival time uk,in>0u^n_{k,i}>0uk,in​>0 and needs service vk,in≥0v^n_{k,i}\ge 0vk,in​≥0. Akn(t)A^n_k(t)Akn​(t) counts class-kkk arrivals in [0,t][0,t][0,t] and Skn(x)S^n_k(x)Skn​(x) counts class-kkk completions within xxx units of server time. A policy is an allocation Tn=(Tkn)T^n=(T^n_k)Tn=(Tkn​), where Tkn(t)T^n_k(t)Tkn​(t) is the time in [0,t][0,t][0,t] spent on class kkk. From it come the headcount Nkn=Akn−Skn∘TknN^n_k = A^n_k - S^n_k\circ T^n_kNkn​=Akn​−Skn​∘Tkn​, the workload Wkn(t)=Vkn(Akn(t))−Tkn(t)W^n_k(t) = V^n_k(A^n_k(t)) - T^n_k(t)Wkn​(t)=Vkn​(Akn​(t))−Tkn​(t) (work present in class kkk), the class-FIFO delay τkn(t)=inf⁡{s≥0:Wkn(t)≤Tkn(t+s)−Tkn(t)}\tau^n_k(t)=\inf\{s\ge0: W^n_k(t)\le T^n_k(t+s)-T^n_k(t)\}τkn​(t)=inf{s≥0:Wkn​(t)≤Tkn​(t+s)−Tkn​(t)} of a job arriving at ttt, and the cumulative cost Jn(t)=∑k∑i≤Akn(t)Ckn(τk,in)J^n(t)=\sum_k\sum_{i\le A^n_k(t)} C^n_k(\tau^n_{k,i})Jn(t)=∑k​∑i≤Akn​(t)​Ckn​(τk,in​). Feasible policies are continuous, nondecreasing and work conserving.

The nnnth system runs on [0,n][0,n][0,n] and is studied at the diffusion scale: W~kn(t)=Wkn(nt)/n\tilde W^n_k(t)=W^n_k(nt)/\sqrt nW~kn​(t)=Wkn​(nt)/n​, N~kn\tilde N^n_kN~kn​, τ~kn\tilde\tau^n_kτ~kn​ likewise, and J~n(t)=Jn(nt)/n\tilde J^n(t)=J^n(nt)/nJ~n(t)=Jn(nt)/n. Arrival and service processes expand as An(nt)=nAˉn(t)+n A~n(t)+o(n)A^n(nt)=n\bar A^n(t)+\sqrt n\,\tilde A^n(t)+o(\sqrt n)An(nt)=nAˉn(t)+n​A~n(t)+o(n​) and Sn(nt)=nSˉn(t)+n S~n(t)+o(n)S^n(nt)=n\bar S^n(t)+\sqrt n\,\tilde S^n(t)+o(\sqrt n)Sn(nt)=nSˉn(t)+n​S~n(t)+o(n​). Assumption 1 asks that these terms converge, with rates λ=Aˉ∗′>0\lambda=\bar A^{*\prime}>0λ=Aˉ∗′>0, μ=Sˉ∗′>0\mu=\bar S^{*\prime}>0μ=Sˉ∗′>0, and that the system is in heavy traffic: n(R+n−e)→c~∗\sqrt n(R^n_+-e)\to\tilde c^*n​(R+n​−e)→c~∗, where Rkn=(Sˉkn)−1∘AˉknR^n_k=(\bar S^n_k)^{-1}\circ\bar A^n_kRkn​=(Sˉkn​)−1∘Aˉkn​ and ρk=λk/μk\rho_k=\lambda_k/\mu_kρk​=λk​/μk​ is the traffic intensity. Assumption 2 asks that the costs scale, Cn(n ⋅)→C∗(⋅)C^n(\sqrt n\,\cdot)\to C^*(\cdot)Cn(n​⋅)→C∗(⋅), and Assumption 3 that C∗C^*C∗ be strictly convex and C1\mathcal C^1C1.

The scaled total workload has a policy-independent limit W~+∗=φ(L~+∗+c~∗)\tilde W^*_+=\varphi(\tilde L^*_++\tilde c^*)W~+∗​=φ(L~+∗​+c~∗), with φ\varphiφ the one-dimensional reflection map. The key static problem splits a total yyy among classes:

g∘y(t)=arg⁡min⁡x∈R+d, ∑kxk=y(t) ∑kλk(t) Ck∗(xkρk(t)).(43)g\circ y(t)=\arg\min_{x\in\mathbb R^d_+,\ \sum_k x_k=y(t)}\ \sum_k\lambda_k(t)\,C^*_k\Big(\frac{x_k}{\rho_k(t)}\Big). \tag{43}g∘y(t)=argx∈R+d​, ∑k​xk​=y(t)min​ k∑​λk​(t)Ck∗​(ρk​(t)xk​​).(43)

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7

Under Assumptions 1–3, for feasible policies with

max⁡k,l∥μkck∗(W~knρk)−μlcl∗(W~lnρl)∥→0,(51)\max_{k,l}\Big\|\mu_kc^*_k\Big(\frac{\tilde W^n_k}{\rho_k}\Big)-\mu_lc^*_l\Big(\frac{\tilde W^n_l}{\rho_l}\Big)\Big\|\to0, \tag{51}k,lmax​​μk​ck∗​(ρk​W~kn​​)−μl​cl∗​(ρl​W~ln​​)​→0,(51)

the costs and delays converge,

J~n→J~∗=∑k∫λkCk∗([g∘W~+∗]kρk)dt,τ~n→g∘W~+∗ρ.(52–53)\tilde J^n\to\tilde J^*=\sum_k\int\lambda_kC^*_k\Big(\frac{[g\circ\tilde W^*_+]_k}{\rho_k}\Big)dt,\qquad \tilde\tau^n\to\frac{g\circ\tilde W^*_+}{\rho}. \tag{52–53}J~n→J~∗=k∑​∫λk​Ck∗​(ρk​[g∘W~+∗​]k​​)dt,τ~n→ρg∘W~+∗​​.(52–53)

Milestones

Lemma 1 and Proposition 2 (jumps (33)–(34), first-order allocation (27), total workload (32), boundedness, equivalences (35)); Proposition 3 (μkW~kn−N~kn→0\mu_k\tilde W^n_k-\tilde N^n_k\to0μk​W~kn​−N~kn​→0); Proposition 4 (Little's law); Proposition 5 (converging policies); uniqueness and continuity of ggg (§4.1); the Kuhn–Tucker characterization (46)–(50); and Proposition 6, the lower bound

lim inf⁡nJ~n(t)≥J~∗(t)for every feasible policy sequence.(44)\liminf_n\tilde J^n(t)\ge\tilde J^*(t)\qquad\text{for every feasible policy sequence.}\tag{44}nliminf​J~n(t)≥J~∗(t)for every feasible policy sequence.(44)

Proposition 6 is what makes Proposition 7 an optimality statement; it is a separate milestone and not part of the goal.

Significance

The result. Proposition 7 identifies a simple, myopic index rule that is optimal at the diffusion scale for every time simultaneously, for arbitrary convex delay costs and nonstationary rates. It extends the cμc\mucμ rule beyond linear costs, links it to the "hug the optimal workload curve" policies of heavy-traffic control, and shows that the instantaneous allocation problem (43) is all that matters asymptotically. Later work on Brownian control of multiclass queues and on convex-cost scheduling (Mandelbaum and Stolyar 2004) builds on this.

Formalizing it. The paper's proofs are short and informal at several points, and the formalization makes these points explicit: the domain of every uniform limit, the policy class, and the reading of μ\muμ. No part of this paper has a machine-checked proof. A completed mission would give a verified heavy-traffic analysis of a multiclass single-server queue at the sample-path level, the first on the platform with a deterministic diffusion scaling and an explicit reflection map.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to show that W~n\tilde W^nW~n converges and then pass to the limit in the cost. That fails for the lower bound: Proposition 6 must cover policies whose class workloads never converge (polling-type policies), so it cannot use compactness of W~n\tilde W^nW~n and must instead compare the cost of an arbitrary split of W~+n\tilde W^n_+W~+n​ with the optimal split, locally in time. For the goal, (51) controls only the indices, so the convergence of W~n\tilde W^nW~n must be extracted from (51) through the inverse marginal costs, the convergence of the total workload, and the Kuhn–Tucker conditions of (43). Delay convergence then needs a uniform control of T~n\tilde T^nT~n over windows of length O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2), and cost convergence needs the convergence of the costs CnC^nCn applied to delays of order n\sqrt nn​.

Formalization scope

Lean namespace GenCMu.HeavyTraffic. The development is deterministic and works one sample path at a time; the stochastic version (Proposition 8) is not part of this mission. Conventions committed to:

  • Classes are Fin d; job indices start at 111; every "→" between functions is uniform convergence ((11)), on [0,1][0,1][0,1] unless stated; lim inf⁡\liminfliminf is written as "eventually ≥\ge≥ bound −ε-\varepsilon−ε".
  • The scaled processes are defined exactly, with Tˉn=Lˉn=Rn\bar T^n=\bar L^n=R^nTˉn=Lˉn=Rn ((69), (75)); the inverse in (14) is the generalized inverse on [0,1][0,1][0,1].
  • The o(n1/2)o(n^{1/2})o(n1/2) terms of (12)–(13) are uniform in ttt. The trends converge in C1\mathcal C^1C1, not only in C\mathcal CC. Without this, Aˉn,Sˉn\bar A^n,\bar S^nAˉn,Sˉn can oscillate on the n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 scale and (33)–(34) and Proposition 3 fail. The service expansion holds on server time [0,2n][0,2n][0,2n], so that for d=1d=1d=1 in heavy traffic the service times of jobs arriving before nnn are covered.
  • μk\mu_kμk​ in (20), (36), (41), (46)–(51) is μk(Rk∗(t))\mu_k(R^*_k(t))μk​(Rk∗​(t)), the service rate in real time, so ρk=λk/μk(Rk∗)\rho_k=\lambda_k/\mu_k(R^*_k)ρk​=λk​/μk​(Rk∗​).
  • (38) is uniform on compacts. Assumption 3's interior clause is imposed where W~+∗(t)>0\tilde W^*_+(t)>0W~+∗​(t)>0. At W~+∗(t)=0\tilde W^*_+(t)=0W~+∗​(t)=0 no point of Ω={0}\Omega=\{0\}Ω={0} is interior, and the literal clause would make the goal vacuous.
  • For the heavy-traffic limit and goal, feasible policies satisfy F1 (without adaptedness), F2–F4, Wk≥0W_k\ge0Wk​≥0, work conservation (used by W+n=φ(Xn)W^n_+=\varphi(X^n)W+n​=φ(Xn)), and every job finishes. Proposition 6 uses a broader cost-admissible class that permits idleness with work waiting. Class-FIFO is built into the delay (9).
  • The delays of jobs arriving near the horizon depend on post-horizon service. We require the allocation on every bounded diffusion-scale window after nnn to advance at the first-order rates ρk(1)\rho_k(1)ρk​(1). This explicit boundary hypothesis keeps Propositions 2, 4, 5, and 7 on the paper's full [0,1][0,1][0,1].
  • Lemma 1 additionally assumes a common Lipschitz bound on the first-order partial-sum trends. Uniform convergence alone permits jumps of order n\sqrt nn​; the bound repairs that omission. Uniqueness of the solution of (43) is stated under strict convexity: "convex increasing" (p. 820) does not give it. (35) is stated without the implication from τ~n\tilde\tau^nτ~n back to W~n\tilde W^nW~n, which fails in the uniform topology.
  • J~∗\tilde J^*J~∗ integrates the optimal value of (43), so Proposition 6 needs no choice of minimizer.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: no theorem assumes the convergence of W~n\tilde W^nW~n or W~+n\tilde W^n_+W~+n​, the uniqueness of minimizers, or the lower bound, and the joint satisfiability of all hypotheses has been checked in Lean for d=1d=1d=1.

Needed infrastructure: sample-path reflection-map estimates, counting/partial-sum inversion with uniform o(n)o(\sqrt n)o(n​) errors, parametric convex optimization (Berge's theorem for (43)), and Riemann-sum arguments for the lower bound. The reflection-map and inversion lemmas are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome. The definitions are frozen, so a proof that needs a different definition should be raised in the discussion.

Selected references

  • J. A. Van Mieghem, Dynamic Scheduling with Convex Delay Costs: The Generalized cμ Rule, Ann. Appl. Probab. 5(3) (1995) 809–833. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177004706
  • C. Buyukkoc, P. Varaiya, J. Walrand, The cμ rule revisited, Adv. Appl. Probab. 17 (1985) 237–238.
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Flow Systems, Wiley, 1985 (reflection map).
  • D. L. Iglehart, W. Whitt, Multiple channel queues in heavy traffic. I, Adv. Appl. Probab. 2 (1970) 150–177.
  • A. Mandelbaum, A. L. Stolyar, Scheduling flexible servers with convex delay costs: heavy-traffic optimality of the generalized cμ-rule, Oper. Res. 52(6) (2004) 836–855. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0156
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Random Walks in a Random Environment 2: lim X_n/n = (1 − Eσ)/(1 + Eσ) if Eσ < 1, −(1 − E(σ⁻¹))/(1 + E(σ⁻¹)) if E(σ⁻¹) < 1, and 0 OtherwiseResearch Paper

Motivation

A random walk in a random environment is a walk whose step probabilities are sampled once at each site and then reused whenever the walk returns there. Repeated visits therefore reveal the same local bias instead of drawing a fresh probability. This makes the walk different from an ordinary random walk with a single averaged step probability. Solomon's 1975 paper asks how the random environment changes the long-run direction and speed of a one-dimensional nearest-neighbor walk. Its Section 1 gives the speed law and the associated limits for first passage times. These results distinguish escape at a nonzero linear rate from escape or recurrence at zero linear rate. Solomon (1975)

The question matters whenever a particle repeatedly crosses the same heterogeneous medium. Averaging the local right-step probabilities predicts the drift of a homogeneous comparison walk, but it does not generally predict the speed in the sampled medium. Sites with a small right-step probability can hold up the walk through repeated excursions. The formula in Theorem (1.16) quantifies this effect using a moment of the ratio of left-step to right-step probability. Solomon (1975), pp. 7–8

Setting

An environment is a sequence α=(αz)z∈Z\alpha=(\alpha_z)_{z\in\mathbb Z}α=(αz​)z∈Z​ of numbers in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. In a fixed environment, a walk at site zzz moves to z+1z+1z+1 with probability αz\alpha_zαz​ and to z−1z-1z−1 with probability βz=1−αz\beta_z=1-\alpha_zβz​=1−αz​. It starts at X0=0X_0=0X0​=0. For the random environment, the variables αz\alpha_zαz​ are independent and identically distributed. First the environment is sampled; then the walk moves according to the fixed probabilities at its sites. The probability law that averages over both choices is the annealed law PPP. The mission's model records this law through every finite path cylinder, jointly with every measurable event concerning the environment. Solomon (1975), pp. 1–2

Write σz=βz/αz\sigma_z=\beta_z/\alpha_zσz​=βz​/αz​ for the ratio of leftward to rightward probability. At the endpoints, σz=∞\sigma_z=\inftyσz​=∞ when αz=0\alpha_z=0αz​=0 and σz=0\sigma_z=0σz​=0 when αz=1\alpha_z=1αz​=1. Let e=Eσ0e=E\sigma_0e=Eσ0​ and e−=E(σ0−1)e_-=E(\sigma_0^{-1})e−​=E(σ0−1​); either may be infinite. For an integer site z≠0z\ne0z=0, the passage time TzT_zTz​ is the first positive time at which XXX visits zzz, with Tz=∞T_z=\inftyTz​=∞ if the site is never reached; put T0=0T_0=0T0​=0. The positive ladder times are τn=Tn−Tn−1\tau_n=T_n-T_{n-1}τn​=Tn​−Tn−1​ where the passage times are finite. Their joint sequence, rather than individual identically distributed variables alone, is relevant to the speed law. Solomon (1975), pp. 5–7

Formalization targets

The goal is the complete three-case statement of Theorem (1.16). All limits below hold almost surely. If e<1e<1e<1, then

Tnn⟶1+e1−e,Xnn⟶1−e1+e.\frac{T_n}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1+e}{1-e},\qquad \frac{X_n}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1-e}{1+e}.nTn​​⟶1−e1+e​,nXn​​⟶1+e1−e​.

If e−<1e_-<1e−​<1, the symmetric limits are

T−nn⟶1+e−1−e−,Xnn⟶−1−e−1+e−.\frac{T_{-n}}{n}\longrightarrow\frac{1+e_-}{1-e_-},\qquad \frac{X_n}{n}\longrightarrow-\frac{1-e_-}{1+e_-}.nT−n​​⟶1−e−​1+e−​​,nXn​​⟶−1+e−​1−e−​​.

In the remaining case, e−1≤1≤e−e^{-1}\le1\le e_-e−1≤1≤e−​, both normalized passage times tend to infinity and Xn/nX_n/nXn​/n tends to zero. The reciprocal inequality is understood in the extended nonnegative reals, including e=∞e=\inftye=∞. The milestone list follows the paper's supporting statements: a transience observation, a fixed-environment mean passage-time identity, a separated-block independence lemma, stationarity and ergodicity of ladder times, and the annealed mean ladder-time formula. Solomon (1975), pp. 3, 5–7

Significance

The theorem gives a numerical asymptotic speed in either direction when the corresponding ratio has mean below one. It also identifies a zero-speed regime through explicit conditions on the two reciprocal moments. The passage-time clauses say more than the final speed alone: they describe the time required to reach distant positive and negative sites and distinguish a finite linear time scale from an infinite one. The same section compares the speed with that of a homogeneous walk obtained by replacing every local probability with Eα0E\alpha_0Eα0​; the random environment can slow the walk. Solomon (1975), pp. 7–8

Solomon proved these results in 1975. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of the known statements and a reusable Lean description of the annealed nearest-neighbor model. The fixed-environment chain, first passage times, and the shift law of a sequence of ladder times are useful interfaces for further formal work on random media. No proof of these draft statements is claimed by the mission proposal. Solomon (1975)

Difficulty

The direct attempt to apply an ordinary law of large numbers to the step increments Xn−Xn−1X_n-X_{n-1}Xn​−Xn−1​ does not fit the model: those increments are not strictly stationary in a nonconstant environment. The walk revisits previously sampled site probabilities, so a later increment depends on the path's history through the sites it has encountered. The paper points out this obstruction before introducing ladder times. An additional issue is that a passage time need not be finite, and the means eee and e−e_-e−​ may also be infinite. Any argument that converts these quantities to ordinary real numbers too early loses the zero-speed cases. Solomon (1975), pp. 5, 7

Formalization scope

Lean represents sites by Z\mathbb ZZ and time indices by N\mathbb NN. A probability space carries the jointly sampled environment and path. The environment lies in [0,1][0,1][0,1] pointwise and is independent and identically distributed across all integer sites. The path law is fixed by its joint finite-dimensional cylinder probabilities, which express the annealed construction from the paper. In particular, the path cannot be chosen independently of the environment merely because its one-step marginal probabilities look right. This rules out a trivializing model that forgets the dependence between the sampled medium and the walk.

The ratios σz\sigma_zσz​, their reciprocal and their expectations take values in R≥0∪{∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{\infty\}R≥0​∪{∞}. Passage times take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and normalized passage-time limits are expressed in extended nonnegative reals. The position ratio Xn/nX_n/nXn​/n has a real limit. The theorem permits both endpoint probabilities, αz=0\alpha_z=0αz​=0 and αz=1\alpha_z=1αz​=1, and imposes no nondegeneracy assumption. Each convergence statement is almost sure. The ergodicity milestone concerns the full joint law of the sequence (τn)n≥1(\tau_n)_{n\ge1}(τn​)n≥1​ under the left shift; shift preservation supplies strict stationarity. Solomon (1975), pp. 1–2, 5–7

A complete development needs measure-theoretic probability, the fixed-environment chain and annealed cylinder law, extended-valued integration and first passage times, and ergodic theory for the ladder-time shift. The model and passage-time interfaces can be reused in later one-dimensional random-environment results. Contributions proving the listed milestones, sharpening their interfaces without changing their meaning, or supplying general probability lemmas used by the known proof are within scope.

Selected references

  • Fred Solomon, Random Walks in a Random Environment, The Annals of Probability 3(1):1–31, 1975. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996444
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CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition IV: Mutually Distinguishable Tangles Have a Tree-Decomposition Separating Them by Their DistinctionsResearch Paper

Why tangles need to be organised into a tree

Robertson and Seymour introduced tangles in Graph Minors. X (J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190) as the precise obstruction to tree-decompositions of small width: a graph has a tangle of large order exactly when it has no tree-decomposition of small width. A tangle points to a highly connected region of a graph without naming its vertices, by designating for every low-order separation which side is the "small" one. Large grids, large clique minors and surface embeddings with high representativity all induce tangles.

A graph usually contains several such regions. The structure theory of the Graph Minors series needs to look at all of them at once: to decompose a graph along a tree so that each highly connected region sits at its own node, and any two regions are separated as cheaply as possible. Section 10 of the paper provides that decomposition, and its later versions ("tree of tangles" theorems) have become a standard tool in structural graph theory, in matroid theory and in abstract separation systems (see Diestel, Hundertmark and Lemanczyk, Profiles of separations: in graphs, matroids and beyond, Combinatorica 39 (2019), and Carmesin, Diestel, Hundertmark and Stein, Connectivity and tree structure in finite graphs, Combinatorica 34 (2014)). This mission formalizes the original 1991 statement for hypergraphs.

Setting

A hypergraph GGG has a finite vertex set V(G)V(G)V(G), a finite edge set E(G)E(G)E(G) and an incidence relation; an edge may have any number of ends. A subhypergraph is given by a vertex set and an edge set, closed under taking ends of its edges; ∪\cup∪, ∩\cap∩, ⊆\subseteq⊆ act on both sets. A separation is a pair (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of subhypergraphs with A∪B=GA\cup B=GA∪B=G and E(A∩B)=∅E(A\cap B)=\emptysetE(A∩B)=∅; its order is ∣V(A∩B)∣|V(A\cap B)|∣V(A∩B)∣.

A tangle of order θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1 is a set T\mathcal TT of separations of order <θ<\theta<θ such that (i) of every separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of order <θ<\theta<θ, one of (A,B)(A,B)(A,B), (B,A)(B,A)(B,A) is in T\mathcal TT; (ii) no three members (Ai,Bi)(A_i,B_i)(Ai​,Bi​) of T\mathcal TT satisfy A1∪A2∪A3=GA_1\cup A_2\cup A_3=GA1​∪A2​∪A3​=G; (iii) V(A)≠V(G)V(A)\neq V(G)V(A)=V(G) for (A,B)∈T(A,B)\in\mathcal T(A,B)∈T. Two tangles are indistinguishable if one contains the other, and a separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) distinguishes T1\mathcal T_1T1​ from T2\mathcal T_2T2​ if (A,B)∈T1(A,B)\in\mathcal T_1(A,B)∈T1​ and (B,A)∈T2(B,A)\in\mathcal T_2(B,A)∈T2​.

A tree-decomposition (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) assigns a subhypergraph τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) to each node of a tree TTT, so that the τ(t)\tau(t)τ(t) cover GGG, are pairwise edge-disjoint, and τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′)\tau(t)\cap\tau(t'')\subseteq\tau(t')τ(t)∩τ(t′′)⊆τ(t′) whenever t′t't′ lies on the path from ttt to t′′t''t′′. An edge eee of TTT, with components T1,T2T_1,T_2T1​,T2​ of T∖eT\setminus eT∖e, makes the separations (G1e,G2e)(G^e_1,G^e_2)(G1e​,G2e​) and (G2e,G1e)(G^e_2,G^e_1)(G2e​,G1e​), where Gie=⋃t∈V(Ti)τ(t)G^e_i=\bigcup_{t\in V(T_i)}\tau(t)Gie​=⋃t∈V(Ti​)​τ(t). Two separations cross unless one of four nestings holds (A1⊆A2A_1\subseteq A_2A1​⊆A2​ and B2⊆B1B_2\subseteq B_1B2​⊆B1​, or the analogous three); a set of separations is laminar if no two members cross.

A tie-breaker λ\lambdaλ maps separations into a linearly ordered set so that (i) λ(A,B)=λ(C,D)\lambda(A,B)=\lambda(C,D)λ(A,B)=λ(C,D) exactly when (A,B)=(C,D)(A,B)=(C,D)(A,B)=(C,D) or (A,B)=(D,C)(A,B)=(D,C)(A,B)=(D,C); (ii) λ(A∪C,B∩D)≤λ(A,B)\lambda(A\cup C,B\cap D)\le\lambda(A,B)λ(A∪C,B∩D)≤λ(A,B) or λ(A∩C,B∪D)<λ(C,D)\lambda(A\cap C,B\cup D)<\lambda(C,D)λ(A∩C,B∪D)<λ(C,D); (iii) separations of smaller order get smaller λ\lambdaλ-order. Given λ\lambdaλ, the (T1,T2)(\mathcal T_1,\mathcal T_2)(T1​,T2​)-distinction is the separation of minimum λ\lambdaλ-order distinguishing T1\mathcal T_1T1​ from T2\mathcal T_2T2​. A separation (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) is λ\lambdaλ-robust if for every separation (C,D)(C,D)(C,D) of the hypergraph AAA, one of (C,B∪D)(C,B\cup D)(C,B∪D), (D,B∪C)(D,B\cup C)(D,B∪C) has λ\lambdaλ-order at least λ(A,B)\lambda(A,B)λ(A,B), and doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust if (B,A)(B,A)(B,A) is λ\lambdaλ-robust too.

Formalization targets

Goal: (10.3), p. 181

Let T1,…,Tn\mathcal T_1,\dots,\mathcal T_nT1​,…,Tn​, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, be mutually distinguishable tangles in GGG (each with its own order) and λ\lambdaλ a tie-breaker. Then there is a tree-decomposition (T,τ)(T,\tau)(T,τ) with V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} such that

(i)ti∈V(T1) ⟹ (⋃t∈V(T1)τ(t), ⋃t∈V(T2)τ(t))∉Tifor every e∈E(T),\text{(i)}\quad t_i\in V(T_1)\ \Longrightarrow\ \Bigl(\textstyle\bigcup_{t\in V(T_1)}\tau(t),\ \bigcup_{t\in V(T_2)}\tau(t)\Bigr)\notin\mathcal T_i\quad\text{for every } e\in E(T),(i)ti​∈V(T1​) ⟹ (⋃t∈V(T1​)​τ(t), ⋃t∈V(T2​)​τ(t))∈/Ti​for every e∈E(T),

and (ii) for i≠ji\neq ji=j, each edge of the tit_iti​–tjt_jtj​ path in TTT whose separations have the smallest λ\lambdaλ-order on that path makes the (Ti,Tj)(\mathcal T_i,\mathcal T_j)(Ti​,Tj​)- and (Tj,Ti)(\mathcal T_j,\mathcal T_i)(Tj​,Ti​)-distinctions, the first with tjt_jtj​'s side first.

Milestones

  • (9.1), p. 177: the separations made by the edges of a tree-decomposition form a laminar set, and every laminar set is the set made by the edges of some tree-decomposition, each member by a unique edge.
  • (9.2), p. 178: every hypergraph has a tie-breaker.
  • (9.3), p. 179: a strict form of the second tie-breaker axiom, with two degenerate exceptions.
  • (9.4), p. 180: doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust separations do not cross.
  • (10.1), p. 180: two tangles are distinguished by some separation if and only if neither contains the other.
  • (10.2), p. 181: the (T1,T2)(\mathcal T_1,\mathcal T_2)(T1​,T2​)-distinction is doubly λ\lambdaλ-robust.

Significance

The theorem gives a single decomposition for all tangles at once: any family of pairwise distinguishable tangles is displayed by a single tree-decomposition, with each tangle "living" at its own node (property (i)) and every pair separated by its cheapest distinction (property (ii)). The paper derives from it that a hypergraph has at most ∣V(G)∣|V(G)|∣V(G)∣ maximal tangles ((10.4), p. 184), and Section 11 uses the same machinery to build tree-decompositions whose pieces "almost" carry a local structure, a step used in the later Graph Minors papers.

None of these statements is formalized in any proof assistant as far as a search of the Prove2Me library shows; the platform has simple-graph tree-decompositions with vertex bags (from Graph Minors V), which are a different object from the hypergraph tree-decompositions here. The mission produces machine-checked statements of the tangle-tree theorem in its original hypergraph form, together with the lemma chain the authors use. The remaining work is a formal proof of each item; (9.1) is "left to the reader" in the paper and therefore needs an argument written from scratch.

Difficulty

The naive approach takes, for every pair of tangles, a separation of minimum order distinguishing them, and tries to arrange these separations in a tree. That fails: minimum-order distinguishing separations for different pairs may cross, and no tree-decomposition makes two crossing separations. Ties among minimum-order separations must be broken consistently across all pairs at once, and even a laminar family of distinctions does not obviously yield a tree whose nodes correspond one-to-one to the tangles, as property (i) and V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} demand.

Formalization scope

  • Hypergraphs are a structure with an incidence relation on types V, E; every theorem assumes [Finite V] [Finite E] (the paper's "all hypergraphs in this paper are finite", p. 154). Subhypergraphs are pairs of a vertex set and an edge set closed under ends.
  • A tangle carries its order as a parameter: IsTangle G θ 𝒯 includes θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1. In (10.3) the tangles have independent orders θi\theta_iθi​.
  • The tree of a tree-decomposition is a SimpleGraph on Fin n that is a tree. In the goal, node iii is tit_iti​, which encodes V(T)={t1,…,tn}V(T)=\{t_1,\dots,t_n\}V(T)={t1​,…,tn​} with the tit_iti​ distinct; the hypothesis n≥1n\ge1n≥1 is the paper's.
  • A tie-breaker is a function on all pairs of subhypergraphs into an arbitrary type Λ\LambdaΛ with a linear order; its axioms constrain only its values on separations. The goal quantifies over every such Λ\LambdaΛ, not just the paper's R3\mathbb R^3R3.
  • (10.3)(ii) is stated with an explicit orientation (the one forced by (i)) and for every edge minimising the λ\lambdaλ-order on the path.
  • (10.1) and (10.2) are stated for hypergraphs; §10 opens with "tangles in a graph GGG", but (10.3) applies them to hypergraphs and their proofs do not use edge sizes.
  • A trivializing formalization would make the tie-breaker axioms unsatisfiable, so that (9.3)–(10.3) hold vacuously; (9.2) is part of the mission precisely to rule this out.
  • The definitions of hypergraph, tangle and tree-decomposition are shared with the other missions of the series, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition I (tangle number equals max⁡(β,γ)\max(\beta,\gamma)max(β,γ)), II (branch-width and tree-width), III (the grid tangle) and V (pervasive classes of designs). The laminar/tie-breaker layer is reusable for any tree-of-tangles statement. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, and a formal proof of (9.1).

Selected references

  • N. Robertson, P. D. Seymour, Graph Minors. X. Obstructions to Tree-Decomposition, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 52 (1991) 153–190. https://doi.org/10.1016/0095-8956(91)90061-n
  • J. Carmesin, R. Diestel, F. Hundertmark, M. Stein, Connectivity and tree structure in finite graphs, Combinatorica 34 (2014) 11–46. https://arxiv.org/abs/1105.1611
  • R. Diestel, F. Hundertmark, S. Lemanczyk, Profiles of separations: in graphs, matroids and beyond, Combinatorica 39 (2019) 37–75. https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.07144
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Scenarios and Policy Aggregation in Optimization Under Uncertainty 2: A Limit of Locally Optimal Progressive Hedging Steps Is a Stationary Point of the Nonconvex ProblemResearch Paper

Motivation

Multistage decision problems under uncertainty are often modelled by a finite set of scenarios: each scenario sss fixes one possible future, and for it a deterministic problem can be solved. What makes the problem stochastic is the requirement that decisions may depend only on information available at the time they are taken. Rockafellar and Wets (WP-87-119, 1987; journal version Math. Oper. Res. 16 (1991) 119–147) proposed the progressive hedging algorithm, which solves the scenario problems separately with a penalty and a price term and blends their solutions step by step into a single policy that respects the information constraints. The method is a standard decomposition scheme of stochastic programming and is implemented in solver libraries such as PySP and mpi-sppy.

For convex problems the paper proves convergence through the theory of the proximal point algorithm. Many practical scenario models are not convex (integer-like penalties, nonconvex costs). For that case the paper proves one result, Theorem 6.1: the algorithm cannot be expected to find a global minimum, but whenever it converges, its limit is a stationary point. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Let SSS be a finite set of scenarios with probabilities ps>0p_s>0ps​>0, ∑sps=1\sum_s p_s=1∑s​ps​=1. A decision is a vector x=(x1,…,xT)∈Rnx=(x_1,\dots,x_T)\in\mathbb R^nx=(x1​,…,xT​)∈Rn, split into blocks xtx_txt​ taken at times t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T. For each scenario there is a scenario subproblem

(Ps)minimize fs(x) over x∈Cs⊆Rn.(P_s)\qquad\text{minimize } f_s(x)\ \text{over } x\in C_s\subseteq\mathbb R^n .(Ps​)minimize fs​(x) over x∈Cs​⊆Rn.

Throughout, every CsC_sCs​ is nonempty and closed, every fsf_sfs​ is locally Lipschitz, and the sets {x∈Cs∣fs(x)≤α}\{x\in C_s\mid f_s(x)\le\alpha\}{x∈Cs​∣fs​(x)≤α} are bounded.

A policy is a map X:S→RnX:S\to\mathbb R^nX:S→Rn. Policies form a space E\mathcal EE with inner product ⟨X,Y⟩=∑spsX(s)⋅Y(s)\langle X,Y\rangle=\sum_s p_s X(s)\cdot Y(s)⟨X,Y⟩=∑s​ps​X(s)⋅Y(s) and norm ∥X∥=⟨X,X⟩1/2\|X\|=\langle X,X\rangle^{1/2}∥X∥=⟨X,X⟩1/2. For each time ttt the scenarios are partitioned into bundles A∈AtA\in\mathcal A_tA∈At​ of scenarios indistinguishable at time ttt. A policy is implementable, X∈NX\in\mathcal NX∈N, when each XtX_tXt​ is constant on every bundle of At\mathcal A_tAt​; it is admissible, X∈CX\in\mathcal CX∈C, when X(s)∈CsX(s)\in C_sX(s)∈Cs​ for all sss. The aggregation operator JJJ replaces Xt(s)X_t(s)Xt​(s) by its conditional expectation over the bundle of sss; K=I−JK=I-JK=I−J, and M={W∣JW=0}=N⊥\mathcal M=\{W\mid JW=0\}=\mathcal N^\perpM={W∣JW=0}=N⊥. With F(X)=∑spsfs(X(s))F(X)=\sum_s p_s f_s(X(s))F(X)=∑s​ps​fs​(X(s)) the problem is

(P)minimize F(X) over X∈C∩N.(P)\qquad\text{minimize } F(X)\ \text{over } X\in\mathcal C\cap\mathcal N .(P)minimize F(X) over X∈C∩N.

Progressive hedging with parameter r>0r>0r>0 keeps Xν∈CX^\nu\in\mathcal CXν∈C and Wν∈MW^\nu\in\mathcal MWν∈M. It sets X^ν=JXν\hat X^\nu=JX^\nuX^ν=JXν, computes Xν+1(s)X^{\nu+1}(s)Xν+1(s) for every sss from

(Psν)minimize fs(x)+x⋅Wν(s)+12r∣x−X^ν(s)∣2 over x∈Cs,(P^\nu_s)\qquad\text{minimize } f_s(x)+x\cdot W^\nu(s)+\tfrac12 r|x-\hat X^\nu(s)|^2\ \text{over } x\in C_s ,(Psν​)minimize fs​(x)+x⋅Wν(s)+21​r∣x−X^ν(s)∣2 over x∈Cs​,

and updates Wν+1=Wν+rKXν+1W^{\nu+1}=W^\nu+rKX^{\nu+1}Wν+1=Wν+rKXν+1. In the nonconvex case, Xν+1(s)X^{\nu+1}(s)Xν+1(s) is only required to be δ\deltaδ-locally optimal: optimal among the points of CsC_sCs​ within Euclidean distance δ\deltaδ of it, for a fixed δ>0\delta>0δ>0.

∂g(x)\partial g(x)∂g(x) denotes Clarke's generalized gradient of a locally Lipschitz ggg and NC(x)N_C(x)NC​(x) Clarke's normal cone to a closed set CCC.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1

If Xν→X∗X^\nu\to X^*Xν→X∗ and Wν→W∗W^\nu\to W^*Wν→W∗, then X∗∈N∩CX^*\in\mathcal N\cap\mathcal CX∗∈N∩C, W∗∈MW^*\in\mathcal MW∗∈M and

−W∗(s)∈∂fs(X∗(s))+NCs(X∗(s))for all s∈S;-W^*(s)\in\partial f_s(X^*(s))+N_{C_s}(X^*(s))\qquad\text{for all } s\in S;−W∗(s)∈∂fs​(X∗(s))+NCs​​(X∗(s))for all s∈S;

moreover X∗X^*X∗ is a local minimizer of (P~)(\tilde P)(P~), which is (P) with fsf_sfs​ replaced by f~s(x)=fs(x)+12r∣x−X∗(s)∣2\tilde f_s(x)=f_s(x)+\tfrac12 r|x-X^*(s)|^2f~​s​(x)=fs​(x)+21​r∣x−X∗(s)∣2, and −W∗(s)∈∂f~s(X∗(s))+NCs(X∗(s))-W^*(s)\in\partial\tilde f_s(X^*(s))+N_{C_s}(X^*(s))−W∗(s)∈∂f~​s​(X∗(s))+NCs​​(X∗(s)).

Milestones

  1. (6.4)–(6.5): each Xν+1X^{\nu+1}Xν+1 is optimal for (Pν)(P^\nu)(Pν), minimize F(X)+⟨X,Wν⟩+12r∥X−X^ν∥2F(X)+\langle X,W^\nu\rangle+\tfrac12 r\|X-\hat X^\nu\|^2F(X)+⟨X,Wν⟩+21​r∥X−X^ν∥2 over C\mathcal CC, on the ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥-ball of radius δ′=δmin⁡sps1/2\delta'=\delta\min_s p_s^{1/2}δ′=δmins​ps1/2​.
  2. W∗∈MW^*\in\mathcal MW∗∈M, KXν→0KX^\nu\to0KXν→0 and X∗∈NX^*\in\mathcal NX∗∈N.
  3. (6.6): X∗X^*X∗ is locally optimal for (P∗)(P^*)(P∗), minimize F(X)+⟨X,W∗⟩+12r∥X−X∗∥2F(X)+\langle X,W^*\rangle+\tfrac12 r\|X-X^*\|^2F(X)+⟨X,W∗⟩+21​r∥X−X∗∥2 over C\mathcal CC.
  4. X∗X^*X∗ is locally optimal for F(X)+12r∥X−X∗∥2=E{f~s(X(s))}F(X)+\tfrac12 r\|X-X^*\|^2=E\{\tilde f_s(X(s))\}F(X)+21​r∥X−X∗∥2=E{f~​s​(X(s))} over C∩N\mathcal C\cap\mathcal NC∩N.
  5. (6.2): ∂f~s(X∗(s))=∂fs(X∗(s))\partial\tilde f_s(X^*(s))=\partial f_s(X^*(s))∂f~​s​(X∗(s))=∂fs​(X∗(s)), from ∂f~s(x)=∂fs(x)+r(x−X∗(s))\partial\tilde f_s(x)=\partial f_s(x)+r(x-X^*(s))∂f~​s​(x)=∂fs​(x)+r(x−X∗(s)).
  6. Theorem 4.1: at a local minimizer of (P) satisfying the constraint qualification "the only W∈MW\in\mathcal MW∈M with −W(s)∈NCs(X∗(s))-W(s)\in N_{C_s}(X^*(s))−W(s)∈NCs​​(X∗(s)) for all sss is W=0W=0W=0", some W∗∈MW^*\in\mathcal MW∗∈M satisfies the conditions above; in the convex case these conditions imply global optimality.

Significance

Theorem 6.1 is the paper's only guarantee outside convexity. It says that progressive hedging, run with local solvers on nonconvex scenario subproblems, cannot converge to a point that fails the first-order conditions, and that the limiting price system W∗W^*W∗ is a Lagrange multiplier for the nonanticipativity constraint X∈NX\in\mathcal NX∈N. It needs no constraint qualification, unlike the general necessary condition of Theorem 4.1: the multiplier is produced by the algorithm. This is the basis for using progressive hedging as a heuristic for nonconvex and mixed-integer stochastic programs.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A complete formalization would give checked statements of the scenario model (JJJ, KKK, N\mathcal NN, M\mathcal MM with the weighted inner product), of the algorithm with inexact local subproblem solutions, and of Clarke's optimality conditions for problems with separable structure. The convex convergence theory of the same paper is the subject of the companion mission Scenarios and Policy Aggregation in Optimization Under Uncertainty 1.

Difficulty

The local optimality of Xν+1(s)X^{\nu+1}(s)Xν+1(s) is relative to a ball centred at the iterate, which moves. Passing to the limit requires a radius that is uniform in ν\nuν and in the norm of E\mathcal EE; this is what δ′\delta'δ′ provides, and it only covers points strictly inside the limiting ball: a point of C\mathcal CC at distance exactly δ′\delta'δ′ from X∗X^*X∗ may lie outside every ball around the iterates. The step from local optimality to the multiplier condition uses Clarke's necessary condition for minimization over a closed set and the sum rule for a Lipschitz function plus a smooth one; neither is in Mathlib. Theorem 4.1 needs, in addition, a calculus rule for normal cones of an intersection under a qualification condition, and the transfer of Clarke's objects between E\mathcal EE with the weighted inner product and the individual scenario spaces.

Formalization scope

Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). A policy is a function S → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The weighted inner product and norm of E\mathcal EE are explicit definitions (ip, pnorm); Lean's built-in norm on policies (the sup norm) is used only for topological notions: convergence of the iterates and "locally optimal" without a radius, which do not depend on the norm. The radii δ′\delta'δ′ are in the weighted norm, the radius δ\deltaδ in the Euclidean norm of Rn\mathbb R^nRn. Time blocks are a monotone map from coordinates to periods; bundles are the classes of a setoid on SSS for each period. The standing assumptions are fields of the model structure, so every theorem carries them. Indices are 0-based and sequences are indexed by ν=0,1,2,…\nu=0,1,2,\dotsν=0,1,2,…; the run starts from X0∈CX^0\in\mathcal CX0∈C and W0∈MW^0\in\mathcal MW0∈M. Theorem 4.1 is stated in its decomposed form (4.4), scenario by scenario.

Clarke's generalized gradient and normal cone are the published platform definitions ClarkeGradients.Shared.generalizedGradient (convex hull of limits of gradients) and ClarkeGradients.FlowInvariance.normalCone (closure of the cone generated by the generalized gradient of the distance function); for locally Lipschitz functions and closed nonempty sets these are the objects the paper uses.

Formalizations that trivialize the statement are excluded: Theorem 6.1 carries no convexity hypothesis and no constraint qualification, the δ′\delta'δ′-balls are not measured in the sup norm, and the run predicate is satisfiable (the model files come with a sanity check exhibiting a run).

Useful infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: Clarke's necessary condition for local minimization of a Lipschitz function over a closed set, the sum rule with a C1C^1C1 function, products of normal cones, and basic facts about JJJ (an orthogonal projection onto N\mathcal NN for the weighted inner product). Contributions of any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. T. Rockafellar and R. J.-B. Wets, Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty, IIASA Working Paper WP-87-119, 1987. https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/2933/
  • R. T. Rockafellar and R. J.-B. Wets, Scenarios and policy aggregation in optimization under uncertainty, Mathematics of Operations Research 16(1), 119–147, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.16.1.119
  • F. H. Clarke, Generalized gradients and applications, Transactions of the AMS 205, 247–262, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1975-0367131-6
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Inequalities on Partially Ordered Spaces 3: Ornstein's d̄-Distance of Stationary Real Processes Equals ∫ω⁰dP + ∫ω⁰dQ − 2 sup{∫ω⁰dR : R ≺ P, R ≺ Q}Research Paper

Motivation

Two stationary random sequences can have identical distributions at each individual time while differing in their dependence across time. Comparing only their one-time marginals therefore misses a feature relevant to stochastic-process comparison. Ornstein's dˉ\bar ddˉ measures the cost of matching two whole stationary processes: it minimizes the expected discrepancy at one time over joint laws that are themselves stationary. Kamae, Krengel, and O'Brien use stochastic order to replace that optimization over pairs of processes with an optimization over a single common lower process in Theorem 8 of their 1977 paper. This mission formalizes that identity and the stationary coupling results supporting it.

Setting

A two-sided path with values in a space EEE is a sequence ω=(ωn)n∈Z\omega=(\omega^n)_{n\in\mathbb Z}ω=(ωn)n∈Z​. The shift TTT sends ω\omegaω to the path whose coordinate nnn is ωn+1\omega^{n+1}ωn+1. A probability law PPP on paths is stationary, written P∈STP\in\mathcal S_TP∈ST​, when P∘T−1=PP\circ T^{-1}=PP∘T−1=P. A law ν\nuν on pairs of paths is jointly stationary, written ν∈SS\nu\in\mathcal S_Sν∈SS​, when it is invariant under S(ω1,ω2)=(Tω1,Tω2)S(\omega_1,\omega_2)=(T\omega_1,T\omega_2)S(ω1​,ω2​)=(Tω1​,Tω2​). Its first and second marginals are denoted ν1\nu_1ν1​ and ν2\nu_2ν2​. These are the objects defined at the start of Section 8.

When EEE has a partial order, paths are ordered coordinatewise: ω1≤ω2\omega_1\leq\omega_2ω1​≤ω2​ means ω1n≤ω2n\omega_1^n\leq\omega_2^nω1n​≤ω2n​ for every integer nnn. For probability laws on any such space, write P≺QP\prec QP≺Q if ∫f dP≤∫f dQ\int f\,dP\leq\int f\,dQ∫fdP≤∫fdQ for every bounded, measurable, increasing real function fff. Thus stochastic order compares laws through all bounded increasing observations, including observations that depend on several time coordinates. The paper introduces this order on a partially ordered Polish space whose order graph is closed and whose measurable sets are Borel sets in Section 1.

For real-valued paths, ω0\omega^0ω0 is the value at time zero. If the time-zero values under stationary laws PPP and QQQ are integrable, define Ornstein's distance by

dˉ(P,Q)=inf⁡ν∈SSν1=P,ν2=Q∫∣ω10−ω20∣ ν(dω1,dω2).\bar d(P,Q)=\inf_{\substack{\nu\in\mathcal S_S\\\nu_1=P,\,\nu_2=Q}} \int |\omega_1^0-\omega_2^0|\,\nu(d\omega_1,d\omega_2).dˉ(P,Q)=ν∈SS​ν1​=P,ν2​=Q​inf​∫∣ω10​−ω20​∣ν(dω1​,dω2​).

The stationary constraint on ν\nuν is part of the definition. It asks for a matching of the full processes, even though the cost is evaluated at one coordinate. The paper notes that this formula is equivalent to Ornstein's original definition for the processes considered here on p. 910.

Formalization targets

The ordered special case is Lemma 3: if P≺QP\prec QP≺Q, then

dˉ(P,Q)=∫ω0 Q(dω)−∫ω0 P(dω).\bar d(P,Q)=\int\omega^0\,Q(d\omega)-\int\omega^0\,P(d\omega).dˉ(P,Q)=∫ω0Q(dω)−∫ω0P(dω).

The main target is Theorem 8, equation (18). For stationary real process laws P,QP,QP,Q with finite first moments at time zero,

dˉ(P,Q)=∫ω0 P(dω)+∫ω0 Q(dω)−2sup⁡R∈STR≺P,R≺Q∫ω0 R(dω).\bar d(P,Q)= \int\omega^0\,P(d\omega)+\int\omega^0\,Q(d\omega) -2\sup_{\substack{R\in\mathcal S_T\\R\prec P,\,R\prec Q}} \int\omega^0\,R(d\omega).dˉ(P,Q)=∫ω0P(dω)+∫ω0Q(dω)−2R∈ST​R≺P,R≺Q​sup​∫ω0R(dω).

The supremum ranges over stationary laws of whole paths, ordered on the full coordinatewise path space. The milestone list includes Theorem 7's stationary monotone coupling, Lemmas 2 and 3, and three claims made inside the proof of Theorem 8: the triangle inequality dˉ(P,Q)≤dˉ(P,R)+dˉ(R,Q)\bar d(P,Q)\le\bar d(P,R)+\bar d(R,Q)dˉ(P,Q)≤dˉ(P,R)+dˉ(R,Q), which the paper asserts without proof ("since dˉ\bar ddˉ is a distance"), the attainment of the infimum defining dˉ\bar ddˉ, and the fact that the law of the coordinatewise minimum of an optimal stationary coupling lies below both PPP and QQQ. These are the statements from the paper that delimit the target.

Significance

The identity expresses a distance defined through stationary joint distributions using only stationary laws below both inputs in stochastic order. It therefore links a coupling cost to an order-theoretic optimization. In the ordered case, Lemma 3 evaluates the distance directly from the difference of means. The authors point out that the general formula replaces an infimum over laws on a product path space by a supremum over laws on one path space on p. 911.

The 1977 results are proved on paper; these mission statements are open Lean proof targets. A completed formalization would supply reusable definitions for stationary path laws, stationary couplings, stochastic order on path spaces, and dˉ\bar ddˉ, together with checked statements about their interaction. It would also make the closed-order and first-moment conditions explicit at every point where a subsequent result uses them. The separate mission for Theorem 1 contains the general coupling characterization that the paper invokes in Theorem 7.

Difficulty

The cost in dˉ\bar ddˉ inspects only time zero, but admissibility of a coupling involves every time coordinate at once. An arbitrary coupling of the time-zero marginals need not extend to a stationary coupling of the two processes. The stationary-coupling existence statement must preserve both full path marginals and the coordinatewise order. On the optimization side, taking an infimum in the real numbers is justified only after the coupling class is shown nonempty and its costs are finite; attaining the infimum requires more than those two facts. These are the obstacles made explicit by Theorem 7 and the proof of Theorem 8.

Formalization scope

The Lean path space is Z→E\mathbb Z\to EZ→E, with Mathlib's product topology, Borel measurable structure, and coordinatewise order. The shift sends coordinate nnn to the old coordinate n+1n+1n+1. For Theorem 7, EEE carries the paper's standing assumptions: it is Polish, its order is a closed partial order, and its measurable structure is Borel. Measurability of quantified functions is explicit, following the paper's convention that sets and functions under discussion are measurable. Theorem 8 and its Section 8 milestones specialize to E=RE=\mathbb RE=R.

The real-valued definition of dˉ\bar ddˉ takes the infimum over jointly stationary probability couplings with the specified full path marginals. Under the target's finite-first-moment hypotheses, the product coupling makes this class nonempty, every displayed cost is integrable, and costs are bounded below by zero. The goal states the supremum with an explicit finite least upper bound. It considers common lower laws with an integrable time-zero coordinate: such laws give the finite values intended by the paper, and this restriction does not remove the optimal value. These choices exclude totalized integrals and default real infima or suprema from supplying a spurious identity. Theorem 7's support condition is concentration on the closed set of ordered path pairs.

Reusable contributions include general facts about stationary measures on countable products, measurable coordinatewise order and meet maps, and stationary coupling compactness. The target specifically requires the order to test bounded increasing functions on the full path space; replacing it with a comparison of time-zero marginals would give a different claim. Likewise, dropping the joint stationarity constraint from the definition of dˉ\bar ddˉ would turn it into the Kantorovich (Wasserstein-1) distance of the time-zero marginals, a different and in general smaller quantity; the formalization keeps that constraint. The source is the published Annals of Probability version; throughout this mission printed page === PDF page +898+898+898.

Selected references

  • T. Kamae, U. Krengel, and G. L. O'Brien, Stochastic Inequalities on Partially Ordered Spaces, The Annals of Probability 5(6), 899–912, 1977. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176995659.
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

The Two-Parameter Poisson–Dirichlet Distribution Derived from a Stable Subordinator 6: n·Y_n → (1 − α)/α Almost Surely under PD(α, θ)Research Paper

Motivation

In a population divided into many species, a ranked frequency VnV_nVn​ is the fraction belonging to the nnnth most common species. The Poisson–Dirichlet distribution is a model for such random ranked frequencies. It also arises from ranked jumps of a stable subordinator, which gives the model its connection to random interval partitions. Pitman and Yor's 1997 paper develops both descriptions and studies quantities derived from the ranked sequence. Its §7.3 asks how much of the remaining total mass belongs to the nnnth ranked component when nnn is large. This is the chain factor YnY_nYn​, the quantity studied here. These interpretations and the result are in Pitman and Yor (1997).

For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, the paper first analyzes the tail ratio Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ under PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) through Proposition 11 and its Laplace transform. Proposition 14 relates PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) to that base law by a local-time density. The limiting behavior in Proposition 44 combines those two themes. The paper states both an almost-sure limit and a Gaussian fluctuation limit, but the variance printed for the latter conflicts with the variance of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​ displayed immediately before it. The mission retains the paper's almost-sure assertion as its goal and records the corrected fluctuation assertion separately. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 863–865, 890–891.

Setting

Choose 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1 and θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α. Let Y~1,Y~2,…\tilde Y_1,\tilde Y_2,\ldotsY~1​,Y~2​,… be independent random variables, where Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​ has the beta distribution with parameters (1−α,θ+nα)(1-\alpha,\theta+n\alpha)(1−α,θ+nα). Its density on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) is Γ(a+b)xa−1(1−x)b−1/(Γ(a)Γ(b))\Gamma(a+b)x^{a-1}(1-x)^{b-1}/(\Gamma(a)\Gamma(b))Γ(a+b)xa−1(1−x)b−1/(Γ(a)Γ(b)) for parameters a,b>0a,b>0a,b>0. Form the stick-breaking lengths

V~1=Y~1,V~n=(1−Y~1)⋯(1−Y~n−1)Y~n(n≥2).\tilde V_1=\tilde Y_1,\qquad \tilde V_n=(1-\tilde Y_1)\cdots(1-\tilde Y_{n-1})\tilde Y_n\quad(n\ge2).V~1​=Y~1​,V~n​=(1−Y~1​)⋯(1−Y~n−1​)Y~n​(n≥2).

Sort these lengths in decreasing order, retaining multiplicities. The law of the resulting sequence V1≥V2≥⋯V_1\ge V_2\ge\cdotsV1​≥V2​≥⋯ is PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ), exactly Definition 1 of the paper. Pitman and Yor (1997), p. 857.

For that ranked sequence, define the tail ratio and chain factor

Σn=Vn+1+Vn+2+⋯Vn,Yn=VnVn+Vn+1+⋯=11+Σn.\Sigma_n=\frac{V_{n+1}+V_{n+2}+\cdots}{V_n},\qquad Y_n=\frac{V_n}{V_n+V_{n+1}+\cdots}=\frac{1}{1+\Sigma_n}.Σn​=Vn​Vn+1​+Vn+2​+⋯​,Yn​=Vn​+Vn+1​+⋯Vn​​=1+Σn​1​.

The distinction between YnY_nYn​ and the original independent factors Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​ matters: the former is computed after ranking and is generally dependent across indices. The paper also uses the function ψα(λ)=1+α∫01(1−e−λx)x−α−1 dx\psi_\alpha(\lambda)=1+\alpha\int_0^1(1-e^{-\lambda x})x^{-\alpha-1}\,dxψα​(λ)=1+α∫01​(1−e−λx)x−α−1dx for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0. It appears in the Laplace transform of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 863–865, 890.

Formalization targets

The central target is Proposition 44, display (150): for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α,

nYn⟶1−ααalmost surely under PD(α,θ).nY_n\longrightarrow\frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\quad\text{almost surely under }\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta).nYn​⟶α1−α​almost surely under PD(α,θ).

The milestones state the distribution and Laplace transform of Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ from Proposition 11(ii), its mean α/(1−α)\alpha/(1-\alpha)α/(1−α), the almost-sure limit of Σn/n\Sigma_n/nΣn​/n under PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0), and Proposition 14's change-of-measure formula. The Gaussian companion records the central limit theorem for Σn/n\Sigma_n/nΣn​/n and the corrected version of Proposition 44's display (151):

n(nYn−1−αα)⟹N ⁣(0,(1−α)2α3(2−α)).\sqrt n\left(nY_n-\frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha}\right) \Longrightarrow N\!\left(0,\frac{(1-\alpha)^2}{\alpha^3(2-\alpha)}\right).n​(nYn​−α1−α​)⟹N(0,α3(2−α)(1−α)2​).

The printed variance in (151) is α−2(2−α)−2\alpha^{-2}(2-\alpha)^{-2}α−2(2−α)−2. It differs from the variance forced by the preceding Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ central limit theorem: Var⁡(Σ1)=α/((2−α)(1−α)2)\operatorname{Var}(\Sigma_1)=\alpha/((2-\alpha)(1-\alpha)^2)Var(Σ1​)=α/((2−α)(1−α)2) and the derivative of x↦1/xx\mapsto1/xx↦1/x at α/(1−α)\alpha/(1-\alpha)α/(1−α) give (1−α)2/(α3(2−α))(1-\alpha)^2/(\alpha^3(2-\alpha))(1−α)2/(α3(2−α)). At α=1/2\alpha=1/2α=1/2, the corrected and printed values are 4/34/34/3 and 16/916/916/9. The verbatim milestone text preserves the paper's wording; the companion theorem discloses the correction. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 890–891.

Significance

Display (150) identifies the almost-sure scale of the ranked chain factor: YnY_nYn​ behaves like a deterministic constant divided by nnn. This makes the order of magnitude precise for every permitted θ\thetaθ, despite the dependence among ranked components. The companion fluctuation statement gives a distributional scale around that limit and exposes a numerical inconsistency in the printed version. Neither conclusion is simply a statement about the independent beta factors Y~n\tilde Y_nY~n​; the paper compares the two sequences precisely because they have different limiting distributions. Pitman and Yor (1997), p. 891.

The result is proved in the paper, while its statements and their supporting definitions still need a machine-checked development. A completed formalization would make the ranked-frequency law, the tail-ratio limit, and the local-time change of measure available as separately reusable results. It would also settle the corrected variance at the level of a precise probability-law statement rather than silently adopting the paper's printed constant.

Difficulty

The tempting shortcut is to use Proposition 11(ii), which says that each Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ has the law of a sum of nnn independent copies of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​, and invoke a strong law. That information concerns each one-dimensional law separately; it does not exhibit the whole sequence (Σn)(\Sigma_n)(Σn​) as partial sums of a single independent sequence. Almost-sure convergence is a statement about their joint coupling, so the shortcut leaves a gap. The Gaussian conclusion raises a different issue: its limit must survive the change from PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) to PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ), and its variance must be consistent with the displayed variance of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​. These are the two substantive tasks beyond the calculation of the Laplace transform. Pitman and Yor (1997), pp. 864, 890–891.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a random ranked sequence as V:Ω→(N→R)V:\Omega\to(\mathbb N\to\mathbb R)V:Ω→(N→R) on a probability space. Its index kkk means the paper's n=k+1n=k+1n=k+1. Thus the goal uses (k+1)Yk+1(k+1)Y_{k+1}(k+1)Yk+1​, and the tail-ratio milestones use Σk+1/(k+1)\Sigma_{k+1}/(k+1)Σk+1​/(k+1). The paper's Definition 1 is represented by independent beta coordinate laws followed by a decreasing ranking. The ranking counts multiplicity using extended cardinality, so an infinite set of terms above a threshold cannot acquire a finite fallback count. The law of the ranked sequence is expressed through measurable preimages. This avoids treating a nonmeasurable ranking map as a zero measure through Measure.map.

All targets retain 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1; the θ\thetaθ targets also retain θ>−α\theta> -\alphaθ>−α. The beta law and integrals use these parameter ranges. Real expectations state integrability or square integrability where needed, preventing a nonintegrable Bochner integral or variance from supplying a fallback zero. The nonnegative change-of-measure identity uses extended nonnegative integrals, and its local time LLL is identified by the almost-sure limit nVnαnV_n^\alphanVnα​ rather than by an arbitrary extra weight or a limit operator with a default value. The Gaussian variances are positive on this parameter range, despite being represented by nonnegative real parameters in Mathlib. The formalization must use the actual tail ratio of the PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) sequence, not an independently assigned factor process.

The reusable infrastructure includes the ranked-value operation, the stick-breaking law, convolution powers, the tail-ratio and chain-factor definitions, and the bridge between PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) and PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ). Contributions that establish these interfaces or prove the displayed mean, strong law, and central limit assertions directly against them are within scope. Pitman and Yor (1997), Definition 1, Propositions 11, 14, 44.

Selected references

  • J. Pitman and M. Yor, The two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution derived from a stable subordinator, Annals of Probability 25(2):855–900, 1997. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1024404422.
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities 2: Under Last Buffer First Serve the Number of Parts Stays Bounded, Eventually by (λc(ε)+γ)/(1−ρ−λε)Research Paper

Motivation

Semiconductor wafer fabrication lines are reentrant: a wafer returns to the same photolithography or etching station many times along its route, so the parts competing for a machine are at different stages of completion. In such a line, a local dispatching rule decides at every machine which waiting part goes next, and the question is whether a given rule keeps the line stable whenever there is enough capacity. Lu and Kumar (IEEE TAC 36(12), 1991) showed that the answer depends on the rule. Some natural buffer priority rules make the line unstable even when every machine has spare capacity (their Example 1; see also Kumar and Seidman 1990). Two rules are proved stable for every route: first buffer first serve (FBFS) and last buffer first serve (LBFS).

LBFS serves at each machine the waiting part that is closest to completion. It is the "pull" rule of the two, and the one closer to practice: it minimizes work in progress in many settings and coincides with earliest due date when parts arrive in due-date order. This mission formalizes the paper's LBFS results, §V. The sibling mission (FBFS, §IV) treats the other policy on the same model.

Timeline:

  • 1990: Kumar and Seidman exhibit instability of clearing policies on a reentrant line with spare capacity.
  • 1991: Lu and Kumar prove stability of FBFS (Theorem 1) and of LBFS (Theorems 2–3) under deterministic bursty arrivals. They also prove it for least slack and earliest due date (Theorem 4, Corollary 1), and show that a buffer priority policy can be unstable (Example 1).
  • 1996: Dai and Weiss prove stability of the fluid models of FBFS and LBFS on reentrant lines (Math. Oper. Res. 21(1)), which by Dai's fluid limit theorem gives positive Harris recurrence for the stochastic versions.

Setting

A nonacyclic flow line has SSS service centers; center σ\sigmaσ has mσ≥1m_\sigma \ge 1mσ​≥1 identical machines, each processing one part at a time. Every part follows the same route through buffers b1,…,blb_1, \dots, b_lb1​,…,bl​: in buffer bib_ibi​ it waits at center σi\sigma_iσi​, then needs τi>0\tau_i > 0τi​>0 units of uninterrupted processing on one machine of that center. A center may serve several buffers.

Parts are released into b1b_1b1​; part π\piπ is released at time α(π)\alpha(\pi)α(π) and exits at time e(π)e(\pi)e(π), when its service at blb_lbl​ ends. Finitely many parts may be present at time 000, in any buffer, some already in service. With u(t)u(t)u(t) the number of releases in [0,t][0,t][0,t], the arrivals are bursty with rate λ\lambdaλ and burst γ\gammaγ if

u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γ(0≤s≤t).(1)u(t)-u(s)\le \lambda(t-s)+\gamma\qquad(0\le s\le t).\tag{1}u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γ(0≤s≤t).(1)

The work per machine that one part brings to center σ\sigmaσ is wσ=∑i:σi=στi/mσw_\sigma=\sum_{i:\sigma_i=\sigma}\tau_i/m_\sigmawσ​=∑i:σi​=σ​τi​/mσ​, and the load is ρ=λw‾\rho=\lambda\overline wρ=λw with w‾=max⁡σwσ\overline w=\max_\sigma w_\sigmaw=maxσ​wσ​. The capacity condition is ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 (3). Also τ‾=max⁡jτj\overline\tau=\max_j\tau_jτ=maxj​τj​, and w(k)w^{(k)}w(k) is the maximum per-machine work brought to a center by a part in bkb_kbk​, counting only buffers bk,…,blb_k,\dots,b_lbk​,…,bl​ (6).

Scheduling is nonidling (a machine idles only if every buffer of its center is empty) and nonpreemptive, and a machine takes the part at the head of a buffer. Under LBFS, a machine takes a part from bib_ibi​ only if every buffer bjb_jbj​ of its center with j>ij>ij>i is empty. The number of parts in the system at time ttt is x(t)x(t)x(t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3, Stability of LBFS

Under (1) and (3), for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with 1−ρ−λε>01-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon>01−ρ−λε>0,

x(t)≤max⁡{(1+ρ+λε)x(0)+λc(ε)+γ, 2(λc(ε)+γ)1−ρ−λε}(t≥0),x(t)\le\max\Big\{(1+\rho+\lambda\varepsilon)x(0)+\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma,\ \frac{2(\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma)}{1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon}\Big\}\quad(t\ge0),x(t)≤max{(1+ρ+λε)x(0)+λc(ε)+γ, 1−ρ−λε2(λc(ε)+γ)​}(t≥0), lim sup⁡t→∞x(t)≤λc(ε)+γ1−ρ−λε.\limsup_{t\to\infty}x(t)\le\frac{\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma}{1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon}.t→∞limsup​x(t)≤1−ρ−λελc(ε)+γ​.

Here c(ε)c(\varepsilon)c(ε) is the explicit constant of the delay estimate. The paper prints the second bound as λc(ε)+γ/(1−ρ−λε)\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma/(1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon)λc(ε)+γ/(1−ρ−λε); its proof establishes the form above, which is the one posed.

Milestones

The delay estimate behind the goal, in the order of its proof:

  • the base case (8) for the last buffer;
  • the one-step comparison (11) with the part just ahead;
  • the induction claim (10) for every truncated line B(k)={bk,…,bl}B^{(k)}=\{b_k,\dots,b_l\}B(k)={bk​,…,bl​}: a part in B(k)B^{(k)}B(k) with xxx parts ahead exits within c(k)(ε)+(w(k)+ε)xc^{(k)}(\varepsilon)+(w^{(k)}+\varepsilon)xc(k)(ε)+(w(k)+ε)x;
  • Theorem 2, the contractive estimate
e(π)−α(π)≤c(ε)+(w‾+ε)x(ε>0),e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le c(\varepsilon)+(\overline w+\varepsilon)x\qquad(\varepsilon>0),e(π)−α(π)≤c(ε)+(w+ε)x(ε>0),

for a part that finds xxx parts in the system on release.

Then the Pipeline Property e(π)−α(π)≤w‾x+o(x)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le\overline wx+o(x)e(π)−α(π)≤wx+o(x), order preservation (parts exit in the order they enter), and the recursion (14) for the number in system along successive exit times. A further item states that LBFS is stable in the sense of §II: every delay e(π)−α(π)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)e(π)−α(π) is bounded.

Significance

Theorem 2 says the delay of a part under LBFS grows with the number of parts ahead at rate w‾+ε\overline w+\varepsilonw+ε: the line behaves like a pipeline whose speed is set by its bottleneck center, although parts revisit centers. Theorem 3 converts this into a bound on work in progress that holds for all time, with an asymptotic bound that does not depend on the initial state. Together they give stability of LBFS for every route and every burst size, with explicit constants. This is a deterministic, sample-path result: no distributional assumption on arrivals is needed. Its constants are explicit, so they can be evaluated for a given line.

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked model of a multi-server reentrant line with nonidling, nonpreemptive, head-of-buffer buffer-priority dispatch, together with Theorems 2 and 3 on it. The model carries over to the other policies of the paper (FBFS, least slack, earliest due date).

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails because under LBFS parts released later do interfere with a part π\piπ: they occupy machines nonpreemptively at the low-priority buffers π\piπ must still pass. So the delay of π\piπ cannot be bounded by the work ahead of it alone. The paper's estimate is an induction from the end of the line backwards over the truncated systems B(k)B^{(k)}B(k), nested with an induction on the position of π\piπ in its buffer. The constant c(k)(ε)c^{(k)}(\varepsilon)c(k)(ε) is recomputed at every level from c(k+1)(ε/2)c^{(k+1)}(\varepsilon/2)c(k+1)(ε/2), so ε\varepsilonε is halved at each level. A formal proof must also handle what the paper treats informally:

  • the order in which parts leave buffers when several arrive at the same instant;
  • parts already in service at time 000;
  • an empty system between busy periods.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace ReentrantScheduling.LBFS.

  • Buffers are 0-based in Lean: the paper's bib_ibi​ is index i−1i-1i−1.
  • A run lists its parts in a fixed line order: parts present at time 000 first (deeper buffers first, then earlier service start), then released parts by release time. This order breaks ties between simultaneous arrivals, and "parts ahead of π\piπ" means the parts in the system that precede π\piπ in it.
  • Service start times are in WithTop ℝ, with ⊤ meaning never, so a run need not serve every part, and the theorems assert that parts are served. A formalization with real-valued start times would assume every part is served, which is half of what stability asserts.
  • All counts (capacity, nonidling, (1), x(t)x(t)x(t)) are Set.encard, never Set.ncard, which would count an infinite set as 000 and make the capacity rule vacuous.
  • The constants c(k)(ε)c^{(k)}(\varepsilon)c(k)(ε) of (8)–(9) are explicit definitions that depend only on the line and ε\varepsilonε. A constant chosen after the run would let it depend on the arrivals or the initial state.
  • Theorem 3's bounds are inequalities in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the lim sup is taken there, so it cannot be a junk value of an unbounded real function.
  • The standing assumptions of §II are hypotheses or part of the run predicate: nonidling, nonpreemptive, head-of-buffer service, mσ≥1m_\sigma\ge1mσ​≥1, l≥1l\ge1l≥1. The positivity τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0 is pinned: the paper leaves it implicit.
  • Every theorem quantifies over all admissible LBFS runs. The empty run and nontrivial runs satisfy the hypotheses.

The model is reusable for other dispatch rules on reentrant lines. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are lemmas on admissible runs (FIFO within buffers, finiteness of x(t)x(t)x(t)).

Not posed here:

  • Example 1, which is already on the platform as QueueingStability.LuKumar.theorem31;
  • Theorem 4 and Corollary 1 (least slack, earliest due date), whose proof modifications the paper leaves to the reader;
  • Theorem 5 (several flow lines), whose proof is a sketch.

Selected references

  • S. H. Lu and P. R. Kumar, Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 36(12), 1406–1416, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.106156
  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3), 289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. G. Dai and G. Weiss, Stability and Instability of Fluid Models for Reentrant Lines, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(1), 115–134, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.21.1.115
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities 1: First Buffer First Serve Is Stable on Every Nonacyclic Flow Line Whose Bursty Arrival Rate Is Below CapacityResearch Paper

Motivation

Semiconductor wafer fabs are the standard example of a reentrant manufacturing line: a wafer visits the same lithography or etching station many times along a route of hundreds of steps, so each station holds parts at many different stages of completion and must decide, every time a machine frees up, which of them to serve next. Kumar (Re-entrant lines, Queueing Systems 13, 1993) singled these lines out as a third class of manufacturing systems besides flow shops and job shops, and stability of their scheduling policies became a central question in the analysis of queueing networks.

The question is sharp because the obvious conjecture is false. Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 35(3), 1990) gave a deterministic network in which a distributed policy is unstable although every machine has spare capacity, and Lu and Kumar (IEEE TAC 36(12), 1991, Example 1, p. 1409) gave a two-station reentrant line in which a buffer priority policy is unstable at load below one. Their paper then identifies policies that are always stable: first buffer first serve (FBFS, Theorem 1), last buffer first serve (Theorem 3) and the due-date policies least slack and earliest due date (Theorem 4). This mission formalizes Theorem 1.

Timeline:

  • 1990: Kumar and Seidman exhibit instability of clear-a-fraction policies under load below one.
  • 1991: Lu and Kumar prove FBFS and LBFS stable on every nonacyclic flow line with deterministic bursty arrivals, and exhibit an unstable buffer priority policy.
  • 1995–1996: Dai (Ann. Appl. Probab. 5(1), 1995) reduces positive Harris recurrence of multiclass networks to stability of fluid models; Dai and Weiss (Math. Oper. Res. 21(1), 1996) prove the FBFS and LBFS fluid models of reentrant lines stable.

Setting

A nonacyclic flow line has SSS service centers; center σ\sigmaσ has mσ≥1m_\sigma\ge1mσ​≥1 identical machines in parallel, each working on one part at a time. Every part follows the same route: it visits buffers b1,b2,…,blb_1,b_2,\dots,b_lb1​,b2​,…,bl​ in order, buffer bib_ibi​ sits at center σi\sigma_iσi​, and a part in bib_ibi​ needs τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0 time units of uninterrupted processing on one machine of σi\sigma_iσi​. The same center may appear many times along the route.

Parts enter at b1b_1b1​; part π\piπ is released at time α(π)\alpha(\pi)α(π). The releases are deterministic but may be bursty: with u(t)u(t)u(t) the number of parts released in [0,t][0,t][0,t],

u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γfor all 0≤s≤t,(1)u(t)-u(s)\le\lambda(t-s)+\gamma\qquad\text{for all }0\le s\le t,\tag{1}u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γfor all 0≤s≤t,(1)

for constants λ,γ≥0\lambda,\gamma\ge0λ,γ≥0. Each part brings wσ=∑i:σi=στi/mσw_\sigma=\sum_{i:\sigma_i=\sigma}\tau_i/m_\sigmawσ​=∑i:σi​=σ​τi​/mσ​ units of work per machine to center σ\sigmaσ, and the load is ρ=max⁡σλwσ\rho=\max_\sigma\lambda w_\sigmaρ=maxσ​λwσ​. The arrival rate is within capacity when ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 (3). At time 000 the line may hold finitely many initial parts in arbitrary buffers, some of them already in service.

A schedule is nonidling (a machine idles only if every buffer of its center is empty), nonpreemptive (a started service runs to completion) and serves the part at the head of the chosen buffer. Under FBFS a free machine at center σ\sigmaσ takes a part from bib_ibi​ only if every buffer bjb_jbj​ of σ\sigmaσ with j<ij<ij<i is empty. With e(π)e(\pi)e(π) the time part π\piπ exits after its service at blb_lbl​, the schedule is stable if there is Γ≥0\Gamma\ge0Γ≥0 with

e(π)−α(π)≤Γfor all parts π.(4)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le\Gamma\qquad\text{for all parts }\pi.\tag{4}e(π)−α(π)≤Γfor all parts π.(4)

Γ\GammaΓ may depend on the initial state as well as on λ\lambdaλ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 1409)

For every line, every λ,γ≥0\lambda,\gamma\ge0λ,γ≥0 with ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1, and every admissible FBFS run whose releases satisfy (1),

∃ Γ≥0  ∀π:e(π)≤α(π)+Γ.\exists\,\Gamma\ge0\ \ \forall\pi:\quad e(\pi)\le\alpha(\pi)+\Gamma .∃Γ≥0  ∀π:e(π)≤α(π)+Γ.

The statement fixes no constant: Γ\GammaΓ is chosen after the run.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, pp. 1409–1410)

An interval [T1,T2][T_1,T_2][T1​,T2​] is an iii-busy period if at every instant some part waits in a buffer bjb_jbj​, j≤ij\le ij≤i, at center σi\sigma_iσi​. With τˉ=max⁡jτj\bar\tau=\max_j\tau_jτˉ=maxj​τj​, Γˉi=∑j<i(Γ(j)+τj)\bar\Gamma_i=\sum_{j<i}(\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_j)Γˉi​=∑j<i​(Γ(j)+τj​) and

Γ(i)=[2τˉ+∑σj=σi, j≤iλτjΓˉi+γτjmσi][1−∑σj=σi, j≤iλτjmσi]−1,\Gamma^{(i)}=\Big[2\bar\tau+\sum_{\sigma_j=\sigma_i,\,j\le i}\frac{\lambda\tau_j\bar\Gamma_i+\gamma\tau_j}{m_{\sigma_i}}\Big]\Big[1-\sum_{\sigma_j=\sigma_i,\,j\le i}\frac{\lambda\tau_j}{m_{\sigma_i}}\Big]^{-1},Γ(i)=[2τˉ+σj​=σi​,j≤i∑​mσi​​λτj​Γˉi​+γτj​​][1−σj​=σi​,j≤i∑​mσi​​λτj​​]−1,
  1. a 1-busy period commencing at T1>0T_1>0T1​>0 has T2−T1≤Γ(1)T_2-T_1\le\Gamma^{(1)}T2​−T1​≤Γ(1);
  2. there are finite times T(i)T^{(i)}T(i) after which every iii-busy period has length at most Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i);
  3. a part arriving at bjb_jbj​ after T(j)T^{(j)}T(j) leaves bjb_jbj​ within Γ(j)+τj\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_jΓ(j)+τj​;
  4. a part released after T(l)T^{(l)}T(l) has delay at most ∑j=1l(Γ(j)+τj)\sum_{j=1}^l(\Gamma^{(j)}+\tau_j)∑j=1l​(Γ(j)+τj​).

Milestone 4 has an explicit bound independent of the initial state; the goal additionally covers the finitely many parts present or released during the transient.

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the simplest "push" discipline, always serving the earliest stage first, keeps every part's delay bounded on every reentrant line whose stations have spare capacity, for every initial state and every bursty but rate-limited release pattern. By Little's law it also bounds the work in process. Together with Example 1 it shows that stability is a property of the policy, not of the load condition alone, and it gave one of the first two positive results for a whole class of reentrant lines. The explicit constants Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) make the delay guarantee quantitative after the transient.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as the platform record shows it has not been formalized: the related platform items concern the fluid models of Dai and Weiss, which have no parts, no burstiness and no nonpreemption, and a fixed instance of Example 1. This mission produces a machine-checked sample-path model of reentrant lines under buffer priority policies and a checked proof of Theorem 1 with its explicit busy-period constants. The same model serves the sibling mission on LBFS (Theorem 3 of the paper).

Difficulty

A first idea is a work-conservation argument per center: total work arriving at σ\sigmaσ grows at rate ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 per machine, so the center cannot fall behind. This fails because the work arriving at a center σ\sigmaσ from a later buffer bib_ibi​ depends on how fast the upstream centers have pushed parts to bib_ibi​, and an upstream center can release a burst that the downstream center absorbs only after other buffers have starved; Example 1 is exactly such a cascade under a different priority order. Any argument must therefore bound the delay of a part at a buffer in terms of delays it suffered upstream at other centers, uniformly in the initial state, while nonpreemption lets a part wait up to τˉ\bar\tauτˉ for a machine busy with a lower-priority buffer and the release constraint (1) controls only arrivals to b1b_1b1​, not to later buffers. On sample paths one must also show that the initial parts clear in finite time and that only finitely many parts are served in any bounded interval.

Formalization scope

Lean represents a line by a structure with SSS, mσ>0m_\sigma>0mσ​>0, l>0l>0l>0, the route center : Fin l → Fin S and processing times τ with τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0. The positivity is a pinned hypothesis: the paper leaves it implicit, its proof divides by τ1\tau_1τ1​, and its only zero processing times are those of Example 1. Buffers are 0-based: the paper's bib_ibi​ is Lean index i−1i-1i−1. The load is written λwˉ\lambda\bar wλwˉ, equal to max⁡σλwσ\max_\sigma\lambda w_\sigmamaxσ​λwσ​ for λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0.

A run is a type of parts with an injective line order, a finite set of initial parts, entry buffers, release times, and for each part and buffer the start of service in WithTop ℝ, ⊤\top⊤ meaning never served. Admissibility imposes, at every t≥0t\ge0t≥0: precedence (service begins after arrival, except that initial parts may be in service at time 000), capacity mσm_\sigmamσ​, nonidling, head of buffer with ties broken by the line order, and the priority rule. All counts use Set.encard. The theorems hold for every admissible run, not for one particular tie-breaking schedule. The constants Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) are definitions computed from the line and λ,γ\lambda,\gammaλ,γ; the times T(i)T^{(i)}T(i) are existential after the run.

Two trivializing formalizations are ruled out: start times in ℝ would make every part served by construction and stability half empty, and a capacity constraint stated with Set.ncard would be vacuous for infinitely many parts. Γ\GammaΓ never depends on the part. A sanity file exhibits a nontrivial admissible run satisfying (1) and checks that the empty run is admissible and stable.

The page prints Γ(i)\Gamma^{(i)}Γ(i) (p. 1410) as a product of the two brackets; the inequality it is solved from gives the quotient, which is also the printed form of Γ(1)\Gamma^{(1)}Γ(1), and the formalization uses the quotient.

The sample-path model (Line, Run, Admissible, Arrivals, Stable) is reusable for any buffer priority policy and for the LBFS mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in the listed order, lemmas on finiteness of the parts served in bounded time, and interval-counting lemmas for busy periods. Not posed here: Example 1, which is already on the platform as an open problem (QueueingStability.LuKumar.theorem31), Theorems 2–3 (LBFS, sibling mission), Theorems 4–5 and Corollary 1 (due-date policies, several flow lines).

Selected references

  • S. H. Lu and P. R. Kumar, Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 36(12), 1991, pp. 1406–1416. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.106156
  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3), 1990, pp. 289–298. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • P. R. Kumar, Re-entrant lines, Queueing Systems 13, 1993, pp. 87–110. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01158927
  • J. G. Dai, On positive Harris recurrence of multiclass queueing networks: a unified approach via fluid limit models, Annals of Applied Probability 5(1), 1995, pp. 49–77. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1177004828
  • J. G. Dai and G. Weiss, Stability and instability of fluid models for reentrant lines, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(1), 1996, pp. 115–134. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.21.1.115
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems 2: Stable and Unstable Modes Coexist Under Clearing on a Two-Part-Type SystemResearch Paper

Motivation

Flexible manufacturing systems are often scheduled by simple distributed rules: each machine looks only at its own buffers and decides, in real time, which part type to work on next. Switching from one part type to another costs a set-up time during which the machine produces nothing, so a natural rule is to work on a buffer until it is empty and only then switch. Perkins and Kumar (IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34, 1989; reference [18] of the paper) showed that such clearing policies, and in particular clear-a-fraction policies, keep every buffer bounded on acyclic systems whenever each machine has spare capacity. Whether the same holds when material flows around a cycle of machines was left open.

Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 35(3), 1990) answered it negatively by two examples. Example 1 is a single re-entrant part type. Example 2, the subject of this mission, has two part types, neither of which ever revisits a machine, and shows two further phenomena: instability without re-entrance, and the coexistence, for one and the same system, of a bounded periodic regime and an unbounded one, selected only by the initial state.

Setting

A manufacturing system has part types ppp arriving at rates dpd_pdp​ and machines mmm. Parts of type ppp follow a fixed route; at stage iii they wait in buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​ at machine μp,i\mu_{p,i}μp,i​, and processing one of them takes τp,i\tau_{p,i}τp,i​. Switching a machine from buffer bbb to buffer b′b'b′ takes the set-up time δb,b′\delta_{b,b'}δb,b′​. Flows are continuous: xb(t)x_b(t)xb​(t) is the level of buffer bbb, ub(t)u_b(t)ub​(t) and yb(t)y_b(t)yb​(t) are its cumulative input and output, and

xb(t)=xb(0)+ub(t)−yb(t)≥0.x_b(t)=x_b(0)+u_b(t)-y_b(t)\ge 0 .xb​(t)=xb​(0)+ub​(t)−yb​(t)≥0.

A machine works in runs: a set-up for a buffer, then processing it at rate 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while it is nonempty, and at the rate of its inflow while it is empty. A clearing policy (Definition 1) keeps a machine on a buffer bbb until the first time that bbb is empty and another of its buffers is nonempty, and then sets it up for one of those. The system is stable if sup⁡0≤t<∞xb(t)<∞\sup_{0\le t<\infty}x_b(t)<\inftysup0≤t<∞​xb​(t)<∞ for every buffer bbb.

Example 2 (Fig. 3) has two part types with d1=d2=1d_1=d_2=1d1​=d2​=1 and two machines. Part type 1 visits buffer 1 at machine 1 and then buffer 2 at machine 2; part type 2 visits buffer 3 at machine 2 and then buffer 4 at machine 1. Processing times are τ1,…,τ4\tau_1,\dots,\tau_4τ1​,…,τ4​ and setting up to buffer kkk takes δk>0\delta_k>0δk​>0. The parameters satisfy the capacity condition (1), τ1+τ4<1\tau_1+\tau_4<1τ1​+τ4​<1 and τ2+τ3<1\tau_2+\tau_3<1τ2​+τ3​<1, and

τ2+τ4>1,δ1+δ41−τ1−τ4=δ2+δ31−τ2−τ3=:η,δ4<(1−τ3−τ4)η,δ2<(1−τ1−τ2)η,\tau_2+\tau_4>1,\qquad \frac{\delta_1+\delta_4}{1-\tau_1-\tau_4}=\frac{\delta_2+\delta_3}{1-\tau_2-\tau_3}=:\eta,\qquad \delta_4<(1-\tau_3-\tau_4)\eta,\qquad \delta_2<(1-\tau_1-\tau_2)\eta,τ2​+τ4​>1,1−τ1​−τ4​δ1​+δ4​​=1−τ2​−τ3​δ2​+δ3​​=:η,δ4​<(1−τ3​−τ4​)η,δ2​<(1−τ1​−τ2​)η,

conditions (7)–(10). The paper's feasible instance is (τ1,τ2,τ3,τ4,δ1,δ2,δ3,δ4)=(14,12,14,23,130,15,120,120)(\tau_1,\tau_2,\tau_3,\tau_4,\delta_1,\delta_2,\delta_3,\delta_4)=(\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac14,\tfrac23,\tfrac1{30},\tfrac15,\tfrac1{20},\tfrac1{20})(τ1​,τ2​,τ3​,τ4​,δ1​,δ2​,δ3​,δ4​)=(41​,21​,41​,32​,301​,51​,201​,201​), with η=1\eta=1η=1. For this system there is exactly one clearing policy.

Formalization targets

Goal: stable and unstable modes coexist

For every parameter set satisfying (1) and (7)–(10):

from x(0)=(0,η,0,η), set-ups (b1,b3): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;∃ ξ0 ∀ ξ≥ξ0, from x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0), set-ups (b4,b3): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has sup⁡t≥0x1(t)=+∞.\begin{aligned} &\text{from } x(0)=(0,\eta,0,\eta),\ \text{set-ups } (b_1,b_3):\ \text{a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;}\\ &\exists\,\xi_0\ \forall\,\xi\ge\xi_0,\ \text{from } x(0)=(\xi,0,0,0),\ \text{set-ups } (b_4,b_3):\ \text{a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has } \sup_{t\ge0}x_1(t)=+\infty . \end{aligned}​from x(0)=(0,η,0,η), set-ups (b1​,b3​): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one is bounded;∃ξ0​ ∀ξ≥ξ0​, from x(0)=(ξ,0,0,0), set-ups (b4​,b3​): a clearing trajectory exists, and every one has t≥0sup​x1​(t)=+∞.​

Milestones

  1. Case 1, periodic regime: under (1) and (8)–(10), every clearing trajectory from (0,η,0,η)(0,\eta,0,\eta)(0,η,0,η), (b1,b3)(b_1,b_3)(b1​,b3​) satisfies x(η)=(0,η,0,η)x(\eta)=(0,\eta,0,\eta)x(η)=(0,η,0,η) with the same set-ups.
  2. Case 2, Stage 8: under (1) and (7), for large ξ\xiξ, with t9=(ξ+τ2−1(δ1+δ2))/(τ2−1−1)t_9=(\xi+\tau_2^{-1}(\delta_1+\delta_2))/(\tau_2^{-1}-1)t9​=(ξ+τ2−1​(δ1​+δ2​))/(τ2−1​−1): x(t9)=(0,0,t9−δ1,0)x(t_9)=(0,0,t_9-\delta_1,0)x(t9​)=(0,0,t9​−δ1​,0), machine 1 set up for buffer 1, machine 2 for buffer 2.
  3. Case 2, full cycle: under (1) and (7), for large ξ\xiξ, at an explicit time t17t_{17}t17​, x(t17)=(λξ+α,0,0,0)x(t_{17})=(\lambda\xi+\alpha,0,0,0)x(t17​)=(λξ+α,0,0,0) with set-ups (b4,b3)(b_4,b_3)(b4​,b3​), where λ=τ2τ4/((1−τ2)(1−τ4))>1\lambda=\tau_2\tau_4/((1-\tau_2)(1-\tau_4))>1λ=τ2​τ4​/((1−τ2​)(1−τ4​))>1.

Significance

The result shows that stability of a scheduling policy is a property of the initial state as well as of the system: the same parameters admit a bounded periodic orbit and an orbit along which the backlog of buffer 1 is multiplied by λ>1\lambda>1λ>1 in every cycle. The capacity condition (1) holds throughout, so the instability does not come from overload: spare capacity is lost because one machine starves the other. The example also shows that a cycle in the machine graph suffices, without any part type revisiting a machine. Sections IV and V of the paper respond to this by giving a stronger capacity condition under which clear-a-fraction policies are stable, and a supervisory mechanism that stabilizes any policy.

The paper's argument is a stage-by-stage computation of a piecewise-linear trajectory. It has not been machine-checked. A formalization fixes what a clearing trajectory is (including the switching instants at which a buffer is empty but just starting to fill), proves that the trajectories exist and are determined by the initial state, and checks the paper's closed forms. One printed constant is wrong: the offset α\alphaα of the full cycle lacks a final −δ3-\delta_3−δ3​, and the milestone states the corrected value.

Difficulty

The computations within each stage are linear algebra. The difficulty is the event structure. Every stage depends on the order in which the two machines' events occur: whether machine 1 clears buffer 1 before machine 2 has finished its set-ups, whether buffer 2 is still nonempty when buffer 1 empties, and so on. These orderings hold only for ξ\xiξ large, or only because (8) holds with equality and (9)–(10) hold strictly. The periodic regime depends on exact synchronization. In Case 2, a machine processing an empty buffer at the reduced rate must not be forced off it while its other buffer is empty and not yet fed. A proof must also establish existence of each trajectory, not only compute it.

Formalization scope

  • Model. The general system has part types Fin P, machines Fin M, buffers as pairs (p,i)(p,i)(p,i) with Lean index iii for paper stage i+1i+1i+1, real time, and no transport delay or assembly (as in the paper). Example 2 is an instance of this general model, with machines 1, 2 as Lean 0, 1.
  • Runs. Each machine follows a sequence of runs. Run 0 is on the initial set-up and has no set-up phase. Run k≥1k\ge1k≥1 has a set-up phase of length δβk−1,βk\delta_{\beta_{k-1},\beta_k}δβk−1​,βk​​, followed by a processing phase. Runs are never cut during a set-up. If there are infinitely many runs, their start times tend to ∞\infty∞. There is no idling outside runs: a machine serving an empty buffer passes on its inflow.
  • Set-up times. They depend only on the target buffer, and δb,b=0\delta_{b,b}=0δb,b​=0 is never used.
  • Processing law. The rate cap is yb(t)−yb(s)≤(1/τb)⋅y_b(t)-y_b(s)\le(1/\tau_b)\cdotyb​(t)−yb​(s)≤(1/τb​)⋅(processing time of bbb in [s,t][s,t][s,t]). Rate is exactly 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while the machine is processing a nonempty buffer.
  • Clearing. "Nonempty" in Definition 1 is read as demanding: positive level, or cumulative input strictly increasing from that instant. Under the literal reading the paper's own switching instants would not be "first times", and no clearing trajectory would exist from these initial states. The no-early-exit condition is imposed on the open processing interval.
  • Set up for bbb at ttt. At t>0t>0t>0 this refers to the run whose interval (sk,sk+1](s_k,s_{k+1}](sk​,sk+1​] contains ttt.
  • Ruling out trivial formalizations. The goal asserts existence of a clearing trajectory in both modes, so neither "every trajectory is bounded" nor "every trajectory is unbounded" can hold vacuously. η\etaη is computed from the data rather than pinned by hypotheses, and (8) is an equality.

Contributions welcome: existence and uniqueness of clearing trajectories for the two-machine instance, the event-ordering lemmas for large ξ\xiξ, the restart (time-shift) property of trajectories, and the three milestones.

Selected references

  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3):289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. R. Perkins and P. R. Kumar, Stable, distributed, real-time scheduling of flexible manufacturing/assembly/disassembly systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 34:139–148, February 1989 (reference [18] of the paper).
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Control TheoryConvex OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Duality in Constrained Portfolio Optimization II: The Dual Problem Attains Its Infimum, So an Optimal Constrained Portfolio–Consumption Pair Exists for Every Initial CapitalResearch Paper

Motivation

Portfolio decisions in continuous time must respect both market uncertainty and investment restrictions. A ban on short sales, for example, restricts the vector of wealth fractions a trader may hold at every instant. The corresponding optimal consumption and investment problem is harder than its unrestricted counterpart because a candidate portfolio obtained from the usual pricing equations may violate the constraint. Cvitanić and Karatzas introduced auxiliary markets indexed by a process and used a dual optimization problem to establish existence of an optimal constrained policy in their 1992 paper. This mission formalizes the paper's existence theorem, Theorem 13.1, together with the results in Sections 12–13 that specify its dual target.

Setting

Fix a finite horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a complete probability space carrying a standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion WWW. Information at time ttt is the probability augmentation of the filtration generated by WWW up to ttt. A bond earns short rate rtr_trt​; ddd stocks have appreciation vector btb_tbt​ and volatility matrix σt\sigma_tσt​. The market assumptions require progressively measurable coefficients, a uniform lower bound on rrr, uniform nondegeneracy of σσT\sigma\sigma^{\mathsf T}σσT, finite expected interest-rate integral, and finite energy of the market price of risk θ=σ−1(b−r1)\theta=\sigma^{-1}(b-r\mathbf1)θ=σ−1(b−r1) §2.

A portfolio πt\pi_tπt​ specifies fractions of wealth held in the stocks, while ct≥0c_t\geq0ct​≥0 is consumption and XtX_tXt​ is wealth. The feasible portfolios lie in a fixed nonempty closed convex set K⊆RdK\subseteq\mathbb R^dK⊆Rd. Its support function is δK(v)=sup⁡π∈K(−π⋅v)\delta_K(v)=\sup_{\pi\in K}(-\pi\cdot v)δK​(v)=supπ∈K​(−π⋅v), which may equal +∞+\infty+∞. The process ν\nuν indexing an auxiliary market belongs to D\mathcal DD when it has finite expected quadratic energy and finite expected integrated support value. Its deflator HνH_\nuHν​ combines an interest-rate discount with a Brownian exponential. The class D′\mathcal D'D′ consists of those ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D for which the budget map Xν(y)\mathcal X_\nu(y)Xν​(y) is finite for every y>0y>0y>0 §§4, 8.

The running utility U1(t,c)U_1(t,c)U1​(t,c) and terminal utility U2(XT)U_2(X_T)U2​(XT​) are strictly increasing and strictly concave for positive arguments. An admissible constrained policy has nonnegative wealth, finite expected negative utility, and πt∈K\pi_t\in Kπt​∈K for Lebesgue-time times probability almost every (t,ω)(t,\omega)(t,ω). The primal value V(x)V(x)V(x) is the supremum of its expected utility over all such policies with initial capital x>0x>0x>0. The dual value V~(y)\widetilde V(y)V(y) is the infimum, over ν∈D\nu\in\mathcal Dν∈D, of expected conjugate utility evaluated at yHνyH_\nuyHν​ §§5–6, 12.

Formalization targets

Dual attainment

The first conclusion of Theorem 13.1 is the paper's condition (12.9):

∀y>0∃λy∈D′V~(y)=J~(y;λy).\forall y>0\quad\exists\lambda_y\in\mathcal D'\quad\widetilde V(y)=\widetilde J(y;\lambda_y).∀y>0∃λy​∈D′V(y)=J(y;λy​).

Thus the infimum is attained by a drift with a finite budget map. It is a conclusion of this mission, even though earlier Section 12 results assume it. The milestones include weak duality (12.8), the dual representation of Proposition 12.1, the capital-matching result of Proposition 12.2, and the analytic properties of the extended dual functional in Proposition 13.2 pp. 792–795.

An optimal constrained policy for every capital

The theorem's second conclusion is

∀x>0∃(π^,c^,X^)∈A′(x)∀(π,c,X)∈A′(x),J(π,c,X)≤J(π^,c^,X^).\forall x>0\quad\exists (\widehat\pi,\widehat c,\widehat X)\in\mathcal A'(x)\quad\forall(\pi,c,X)\in\mathcal A'(x),\quad J(\pi,c,X)\leq J(\widehat\pi,\widehat c,\widehat X).∀x>0∃(π,c,X)∈A′(x)∀(π,c,X)∈A′(x),J(π,c,X)≤J(π,c,X).

Here A′(x)\mathcal A'(x)A′(x) is the constrained admissible class. Theorem 12.4 establishes this conclusion when dual attainment is assumed; Theorem 13.1 provides that assumption under the paper's stated utility and dual-finiteness conditions p. 794.

Significance

The result supplies an optimizer, rather than only a bound on the best attainable utility. It also identifies a minimizing auxiliary market for every positive dual parameter, making the dual description usable at a specified initial capital. The dual representation links the primal value to a convex function that can be studied without choosing a constrained policy first §§12–13.

The theorem is proved in the paper; the remaining work here is a machine-checked development of its definitions, hypotheses, and existence argument. The mission also produces reusable definitions of an almost-surely square-integrable Brownian integral relation, extended-real utility expectations, an extended support function, and constrained wealth classes. The Brownian state space and predictable step-sum substrate credit the published Ethier–Kurtz formalizations. The paper refers some analytic steps to earlier works instead of reproducing full proofs, including Lemma 12.3 and a final finiteness argument pp. 793–796.

Difficulty

Weak duality alone only bounds the constrained value from above. It does not supply a minimizer of J~(y;ν)\widetilde J(y;\nu)J(y;ν), and an arbitrary minimizing auxiliary process need not belong to D′\mathcal D'D′. The dual functional must retain meaningful infinite values on the full finite-energy process space H\mathcal HH; replacing them with total-operation defaults can turn the needed coercivity and lower-semicontinuity statements into different claims. Even after dual attainment, the minimizing parameter for a prescribed capital must match the budget map Xλy(y)\mathcal X_{\lambda_y}(y)Xλy​​(y) §§12–13. These are the precise gaps between a numerical bound and the asserted optimal policy.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Rd\mathbb R^dRd with its Euclidean norm, a finite positive horizon, a complete probability measure, and the augmented Brownian filtration. Processes are functions of time and sample point; ℓ⊗P\ell\otimes Pℓ⊗P almost-everywhere restrictions on portfolios and auxiliary drifts are distinct from pathwise PPP-almost-sure statements. A policy is represented by a triple (π,c,X)(\pi,c,X)(π,c,X) whose wealth process satisfies the integral equation, matching the paper's pair together with its unique wealth solution. The integral operator is bound to the local Itô construction by predictable step approximations; it is not a free function. Integrands must be in its almost-sure square-integrable domain.

Support values, utility at zero, expected utility, and value functions use extended reals. The extension U(0)U(0)U(0) is the right limit U(0+)U(0+)U(0+); an extended-real supremum defines conjugate utility where zero arguments arise. The inverse marginal is a positive-argument inverse of U′U'U′. The minimization in V~\widetilde VV ranges over D\mathcal DD, while (12.9) asks for a minimizer in D′\mathcal D'D′. Its witnesses λy\lambda_yλy​ remain explicit choices in statements involving Xλy\mathcal X_{\lambda_y}Xλy​​; no default-valued inverse Yν\mathcal Y_\nuYν​ is introduced. The functional J~y\widetilde J_yJy​ of (13.3) is defined on H\mathcal HH, uses the paper's formula on G\mathcal GG, and is +∞+\infty+∞ off G\mathcal GG. On D\mathcal DD it agrees almost everywhere with the original dual objective, an equality requiring a formal lemma. Assumption 6.2 and conditions (5.8), (8.25), (12.2), (12.3), and (12.11) are explicit. Their quantifiers cover both utilities and every time in [0,T][0,T][0,T] where stated. The mission rules out a vacuous dual-attainment hypothesis, a zero default for an unbounded support supremum, and an unconstrained stochastic-integral operator. Contributions proving the source milestones and the analytic lemmas they need are in scope.

Selected references

  • Jakša Cvitanić and Ioannis Karatzas, Convex Duality in Constrained Portfolio Optimization, The Annals of Applied Probability 2(4), 1992, 767–818. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1177005576.
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Homogeneous Approximation, Recursive Observer Design, and Output Feedback: Global Asymptotic Stabilization of a Chain of Integrators by a Homogeneous-in-the-Bi-Limit Output FeedbackResearch Paper

Motivation

Many nonlinear control systems behave like a chain of integrators, x˙1=x2,…,x˙n=u\dot x_1=x_2,\dots,\dot x_n=ux˙1​=x2​,…,x˙n​=u, with additional terms that are small either near the origin or far from it. Designs based on weighted homogeneity handle such systems by making the closed loop invariant under a dilation, which gives robustness to perturbations that are dominated by the homogeneous part (Rosier, Homogeneous Lyapunov function for homogeneous continuous vector field, Systems & Control Letters, 1992, doi:10.1016/0167-6911(92)90078-7). A single homogeneous approximation, however, describes the system only at one scale. A perturbation that is negligible near the origin may dominate at infinity, and a design tuned to the origin can then fail globally.

Andrieu, Praly and Astolfi (arXiv:0903.0298v1; SIAM J. Control Optim., 2008, doi:10.1137/060675861) introduce homogeneity in the bi-limit: a function or vector field has one homogeneous approximation near the origin and another, possibly with different weights and degree, at infinity. They develop the basic calculus of this notion, a converse Lyapunov theorem for it, a recursive observer and a recursive state feedback for the chain of integrators, and combine them into a global output feedback. This mission formalizes that output-feedback result and the chain of results it rests on.

Setting

For a weight r=(r1,…,rn)r=(r_1,\dots,r_n)r=(r1​,…,rn​) with all ri>0r_i>0ri​>0 and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the dilation is λr⋄x=(λr1x1,…,λrnxn)\lambda^r\diamond x=(\lambda^{r_1}x_1,\dots,\lambda^{r_n}x_n)λr⋄x=(λr1​x1​,…,λrn​xn​). A continuous function ϕ:Rn→R\phi:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rϕ:Rn→R is homogeneous in the 0-limit with triple (r0,d0,ϕ0)(r_0,d_0,\phi_0)(r0​,d0​,ϕ0​), degree d0≥0d_0\ge0d0​≥0, if ϕ0\phi_0ϕ0​ is continuous and not identically zero and, for every compact C⊆Rn∖{0}C\subseteq\mathbb R^n\setminus\{0\}C⊆Rn∖{0} and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, there is λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0 such that

max⁡x∈C∣ϕ(λr0⋄x)λd0−ϕ0(x)∣≤εfor all λ∈(0,λ0].\max_{x\in C}\left|\frac{\phi(\lambda^{r_0}\diamond x)}{\lambda^{d_0}}-\phi_0(x)\right|\le\varepsilon\qquad\text{for all }\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0].x∈Cmax​​λd0​ϕ(λr0​⋄x)​−ϕ0​(x)​≤εfor all λ∈(0,λ0​].

Homogeneity in the ∞-limit with triple (r∞,d∞,ϕ∞)(r_\infty,d_\infty,\phi_\infty)(r∞​,d∞​,ϕ∞​) is the same statement for all λ≥λ∞\lambda\ge\lambda_\inftyλ≥λ∞​. A vector field f=(f1,…,fn)f=(f_1,\dots,f_n)f=(f1​,…,fn​) is homogeneous with triple (r,d,f0)(r,\mathfrak d,f_0)(r,d,f0​), d∈R\mathfrak d\in\mathbb Rd∈R, when each fif_ifi​ is homogeneous with triple (r,d+ri,f0,i)(r,\mathfrak d+r_i,f_{0,i})(r,d+ri​,f0,i​) and d+ri≥0\mathfrak d+r_i\ge0d+ri​≥0. Bi-limit means both at once.

For the chain of integrators, Snx=(x2,…,xn,0)TS_n x=(x_2,\dots,x_n,0)^TSn​x=(x2​,…,xn​,0)T and Bn=(0,…,0,1)TB_n=(0,\dots,0,1)^TBn​=(0,…,0,1)T. Given degrees d0,d∞∈(−1,1n−1)\mathfrak d_0,\mathfrak d_\infty\in(-1,\frac1{n-1})d0​,d∞​∈(−1,n−11​), the weights are

r0,i=1−d0(n−i),r∞,i=1−d∞(n−i),i=1,…,n.r_{0,i}=1-\mathfrak d_0(n-i),\qquad r_{\infty,i}=1-\mathfrak d_\infty(n-i),\qquad i=1,\dots,n .r0,i​=1−d0​(n−i),r∞,i​=1−d∞​(n−i),i=1,…,n.

The output feedback studied is

x˙=Snx+Bnu,y=x1,X^˙n=L(SnX^n+Bnϕn(X^n)+K1(x1−x^1)),u=Lnϕn(X^n),\dot x=S_nx+B_nu,\quad y=x_1,\qquad \dot{\hat{\mathfrak X}}_n=L\bigl(S_n\hat{\mathfrak X}_n+B_n\phi_n(\hat{\mathfrak X}_n)+K_1(x_1-\hat x_1)\bigr),\quad u=L^n\phi_n(\hat{\mathfrak X}_n),x˙=Sn​x+Bn​u,y=x1​,X^˙n​=L(Sn​X^n​+Bn​ϕn​(X^n​)+K1​(x1​−x^1​)),u=Lnϕn​(X^n​),

with a gain L>0L>0L>0, a state feedback ϕn:Rn→R\phi_n:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rϕn​:Rn→R and an output-injection vector field K1:Rn→RnK_1:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nK1​:Rn→Rn, where K1(s)K_1(s)K1​(s) means K1(s,0,…,0)K_1(s,0,\dots,0)K1​(s,0,…,0). Its homogeneous approximations are the same closed loop with (ϕn,0,K1,0)(\phi_{n,0},K_{1,0})(ϕn,0​,K1,0​) and with (ϕn,∞,K1,∞)(\phi_{n,\infty},K_{1,\infty})(ϕn,∞​,K1,∞​) in place of (ϕn,K1)(\phi_n,K_1)(ϕn​,K1​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

For n≥2n\ge2n≥2 and d0,d∞∈(−1,1n−1)\mathfrak d_0,\mathfrak d_\infty\in(-1,\frac1{n-1})d0​,d∞​∈(−1,n−11​) there exist ϕn\phi_nϕn​, homogeneous in the bi-limit with triples (r0,1+d0,ϕn,0)(r_0,1+\mathfrak d_0,\phi_{n,0})(r0​,1+d0​,ϕn,0​) and (r∞,1+d∞,ϕn,∞)(r_\infty,1+\mathfrak d_\infty,\phi_{n,\infty})(r∞​,1+d∞​,ϕn,∞​), and K1K_1K1​, homogeneous in the bi-limit with triples (r0,d0,K1,0)(r_0,\mathfrak d_0,K_{1,0})(r0​,d0​,K1,0​) and (r∞,d∞,K1,∞)(r_\infty,\mathfrak d_\infty,K_{1,\infty})(r∞​,d∞​,K1,∞​), such that

∀L>0:0∈R2n is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.\forall L>0:\quad 0\in\mathbb R^{2n}\text{ is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.}∀L>0:0∈R2n is globally asymptotically stable for the closed loop and for both of its homogeneous approximations.

The pair (ϕn,K1)(\phi_n,K_1)(ϕn​,K1​) is fixed before LLL. No constant appears in the goal.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.10 (composition) and Proposition 2.12 (integration along a coordinate) preserve homogeneity in the limit.
  2. Lemma 2.13: for homogeneous η\etaη and γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0 with η<0\eta<0η<0 where γ=0\gamma=0γ=0, η−cγ<0\eta-c\gamma<0η−cγ<0 off the origin for all large ccc, simultaneously for both approximations.
  3. Theorem 2.20: a converse Lyapunov theorem, giving a C1C^1C1 proper Lyapunov function whose gradient is homogeneous in the bi-limit.
  4. Theorem 3.1 and display (3.12): the recursive observer, an output injection K1K_1K1​ making E˙=SnE+K1(e1)\dot E=S_nE+K_1(e_1)E˙=Sn​E+K1​(e1​) and its approximations globally asymptotically stable.
  5. Theorem 4.1 and display (4.9): the recursive state feedback, a ϕn\phi_nϕn​ making X˙=SnX+Bnϕn(X)\dot{\mathfrak X}=S_n\mathfrak X+B_n\phi_n(\mathfrak X)X˙=Sn​X+Bn​ϕn​(X) and its approximations globally asymptotically stable.

Significance

The theorem gives a single dynamic output feedback for the chain of integrators that is homogeneous with prescribed degrees near the origin and at infinity, and that stabilizes globally for every gain L>0L>0L>0. Because the degrees at the two ends are independent, the same design can be matched to perturbations of different orders at small and large amplitudes; the paper derives from it output-feedback stabilizers for systems in feedback and feedforward form (Corollaries 5.2 and 5.3), which are outside this mission. The converse Lyapunov theorem (Theorem 2.20) and the key lemma (Lemma 2.13) are general tools for any vector field homogeneous in the bi-limit.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor the notion of homogeneity in the bi-limit, has a machine-checked proof. The platform has a definition of global asymptotic stability for continuous vector fields (from the series on Chitour, Ushirobira, Efimov and Perruquetti's prescribed-time stabilization) and Mathlib has the needed analysis, but there is no converse Lyapunov theorem and no theory of weighted homogeneous vector fields. A complete formalization would supply both.

Difficulty

Lyapunov arguments for homogeneous systems usually compare a function with its homogeneous approximation on the unit sphere and then scale. With homogeneity in the bi-limit the comparison holds only for small or for large dilation parameters, with no control at intermediate scales, and the two approximations have different weights, so no single dilation brings the whole space to a compact set. Each statement has to hold for the system and for both approximations at once. Theorem 2.20 additionally requires a converse Lyapunov theorem for continuous, non-Lipschitz vector fields whose solutions need not be unique, so a flow map is not available. Finally, the gain LLL in the goal is arbitrary: an argument that only works for LLL large enough proves a weaker statement.

Formalization scope

Points of Rn\mathbb R^nRn are functions Fin n → ℝ, with the paper's coordinate xix_ixi​ at index i−1i-1i−1; the closed loop lives on Fin (n + n) → ℝ with xxx first and X^n\hat{\mathfrak X}_nX^n​ second. Real powers are Real.rpow; the signed power is wr=sign⁡(w)∣w∣rw^r=\operatorname{sign}(w)|w|^rwr=sign(w)∣w∣r. Every clause of Definitions 2.1, 2.3 and 2.5 is kept: positive weights, nonnegative function degrees, continuity, approximating functions not identically zero, uniformity on compact subsets of Rn∖{0}\mathbb R^n\setminus\{0\}Rn∖{0}. Dropping any of them makes the goal weaker than the paper's.

Global asymptotic stability reuses the published ChitourPrescribedTime.FixedTime.GloballyAsymptoticallyStable on the Euclidean space, applied to the time-invariant field: the origin is an equilibrium, every initial state has a solution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and stability and uniform attractivity hold for every solution. The mission adds that no solution escapes to infinity in finite time, so that every solution is covered; for continuous autonomous fields this is the textbook notion. Positive and negative definiteness, properness (V→∞V\to\inftyV→∞ along the cocompact filter), C1C^1C1 and partial derivatives (Fréchet derivative on a basis vector) are defined in the mission's definition files.

Corrections and readings, each disclosed in the item concerned:

  • Proposition 2.10 is false as printed. The composite approximation ζ0∘ϕ0\zeta_0\circ\phi_0ζ0​∘ϕ0​ can vanish identically, and in the ∞-limit a degree-0 outer function fails. Both extra hypotheses are added.
  • (5.2) prints K1(x1−x^1)K_1(x_1-\hat x_1)K1​(x1​−x^1​) while (3.3) and (5.9) use x^1−x1\hat x_1-x_1x^1​−x1​. The goal keeps the printed sign; since K1K_1K1​ is existential, the two readings are equivalent.
  • In Theorem 3.1 the hypothesis "GAS for these systems" covers (3.5) and both approximations, as the proof uses. In Theorem 4.1 the implicit ψi0,ψi∞\psi_{i0},\psi_{i\infty}ψi0​,ψi∞​ are existential C1C^1C1 functions, and αi+1>1\alpha_{i+1}>1αi+1​>1 is kept as printed. (4.4) and (4.9) lack the time-derivative dots.

A formalization in which the closed loop is replaced by its linearization, the homogeneity predicate is weakened to pointwise convergence, or the quantifier on LLL is moved before ϕn\phi_nϕn​ and K1K_1K1​, proves a different statement and does not close the goal. Contributions welcome: a library of weighted dilations and homogeneous functions, the converse Lyapunov theorem, and proofs of the milestones in any order.

Selected references

  • V. Andrieu, L. Praly, A. Astolfi, Homogeneous Approximation, Recursive Observer Design, and Output Feedback, arXiv:0903.0298v1, 2009 (SIAM J. Control Optim. 47(4), 2008). https://arxiv.org/abs/0903.0298
  • L. Rosier, Homogeneous Lyapunov function for homogeneous continuous vector field, Systems & Control Letters 19(6), 1992. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(92)90078-7
  • A. Bacciotti, L. Rosier, Liapunov Functions and Stability in Control Theory, Springer, 2nd ed., 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139028
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