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Algorithmic Game Theory

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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions 3: Anonymity, Order Preservation, Winner Strict Endowment Monotonicity and Top Consistency Characterize Parametric RulesResearch Paper

Motivation

Rank-order competitions — sports tournaments, poker final tables, golf tours, crowdsourcing contests, sales leagues — end with a ranking of the participants and a pot of prize money that has to be split according to that ranking. Organisers publish prize tables that change with the number of entrants and with the size of the purse, and these tables are usually justified only by tradition. Dietzenbacher and Kondratev (arXiv:2008.08985v2, published in Management Science 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.4520) take the axiomatic approach of fair-division theory and ask which prize allocation rules are characterised by natural requirements of fairness and coherence across competitions of different sizes.

Consistency — invariance of a rule under "re-running the allocation" for a subgroup with the money it collectively received — has a long history in axiomatic allocation: bankruptcy problems (Aumann and Maschler 1985), taxation (Young 1987), bargaining (Lensberg 1987, 1988) and cooperative games (Peleg 1986; Hart and Mas-Colell 1989). The paper applies it to competitions. Full consistency together with order preservation and endowment monotonicity yields the interval rules (Theorem 1); weakening consistency to local consistency yields the single-parametric rules (Theorem 2). This mission concerns the weakest version, top consistency, which only constrains the top segment of the ranking and describes real prize schemes such as the golf tournament of Table 1(b) of the paper. It is the third mission of a series on this paper; the first two treat Theorems 1 and 2.

Setting

Fix a countable set UUU of at least three potential competitors. A competition (N,R,E)(N,\mathcal R,E)(N,R,E) consists of a finite nonempty set N⊆UN\subseteq UN⊆U, a ranking R:N→{1,…,∣N∣}\mathcal R:N\to\{1,\dots,|N|\}R:N→{1,…,∣N∣} (a bijection; competitor iii is ranked above jjj when R(i)<R(j)\mathcal R(i)<\mathcal R(j)R(i)<R(j)), and a prize endowment E≥0E\ge0E≥0. For S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N the subranking RS:S→{1,…,∣S∣}\mathcal R_S:S\to\{1,\dots,|S|\}RS​:S→{1,…,∣S∣} orders SSS as R\mathcal RR does.

A prize allocation rule φ\varphiφ assigns to each competition a vector φ(N,R,E)∈R+N\varphi(N,\mathcal R,E)\in\mathbb R_+^Nφ(N,R,E)∈R+N​ with ∑i∈Nφi(N,R,E)=E\sum_{i\in N}\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=E∑i∈N​φi​(N,R,E)=E. The axioms are:

  • anonymity: φi(N,R,E)=φj(N′,R′,E)\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=\varphi_j(N',\mathcal R',E)φi​(N,R,E)=φj​(N′,R′,E) whenever ∣N∣=∣N′∣|N|=|N'|∣N∣=∣N′∣ and R(i)=R′(j)\mathcal R(i)=\mathcal R'(j)R(i)=R′(j);
  • order preservation: R(i)<R(j)\mathcal R(i)<\mathcal R(j)R(i)<R(j) implies φi≥φj\varphi_i\ge\varphi_jφi​≥φj​;
  • winner strict endowment monotonicity: if E<E′E<E'E<E′ then φi(N,R,E)≤φi(N,R,E′)\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)\le\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E')φi​(N,R,E)≤φi​(N,R,E′) for all iii, strictly for the winner R(i)=1\mathcal R(i)=1R(i)=1;
  • top consistency: for each S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N with R(i)≤∣S∣\mathcal R(i)\le|S|R(i)≤∣S∣ for every i∈Si\in Si∈S, and each i∈Si\in Si∈S,
φi(N,R,E)=φi(S,RS,∑j∈Sφj(N,R,E)).\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=\varphi_i\Big(S,\mathcal R_S,\sum_{j\in S}\varphi_j(N,\mathcal R,E)\Big).φi​(N,R,E)=φi​(S,RS​,j∈S∑​φj​(N,R,E)).

A rule is parametric if there are continuous non-decreasing f1,f2,⋯:R+→R+f_1,f_2,\dots:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+f1​,f2​,⋯:R+​→R+​ with f1(x)=xf_1(x)=xf1​(x)=x and fk+1(x)≤fk(x)f_{k+1}(x)\le f_k(x)fk+1​(x)≤fk​(x) such that φi(N,R,E)=fR(i)(x)\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=f_{\mathcal R(i)}(x)φi​(N,R,E)=fR(i)​(x), where x≥0x\ge0x≥0 solves ∑k=1∣N∣fk(x)=E\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f_k(x)=E∑k=1∣N∣​fk​(x)=E. The winner gets xxx and position kkk gets fk(x)f_k(x)fk​(x). Equal Division (fk(x)=xf_k(x)=xfk​(x)=x) and Winner-Takes-All (fk=0f_k=0fk​=0 for k≥2k\ge2k≥2) are parametric.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 22)

φ is anonymous, order preserving, winner strictly endowment monotonic and top consistent  ⟺  φ is a parametric rule.\varphi \text{ is anonymous, order preserving, winner strictly endowment monotonic and top consistent}\iff\varphi\text{ is a parametric rule.}φ is anonymous, order preserving, winner strictly endowment monotonic and top consistent⟺φ is a parametric rule.

Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 3, pp. 32–33)

  1. Every parametric rule satisfies the four axioms (the "readily checked" direction).
  2. Under order preservation, endowment continuity and winner strict endowment monotonicity, the winner's prize E↦φ1(N,R,E)E\mapsto\varphi_1(N,\mathcal R,E)E↦φ1​(N,R,E) is strictly increasing, continuous and unbounded on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, so each x≥0x\ge0x≥0 is the winner's prize for exactly one EEE.
  3. The induction step: a representation f1,…,fnf_1,\dots,f_nf1​,…,fn​ valid on all competitions with at most nnn competitors extends, by a new continuous non-decreasing fn+1≤fnf_{n+1}\le f_nfn+1​≤fn​, to all competitions with n+1n+1n+1 competitors.

Lemma 1 of the paper (endowment monotonicity implies endowment continuity, p. 10) is used in the proof; it is formalized in the first mission of this series and will be referenced from there.

Companion: Corollary 8 (p. 22)

Replacing winner strict endowment monotonicity by endowment additivity (equivalently scale invariance) characterises the proportional rules φi=λR(i)E/∑k≤∣N∣λk\varphi_i=\lambda_{\mathcal R(i)}E/\sum_{k\le|N|}\lambda_kφi​=λR(i)​E/∑k≤∣N∣​λk​ with λ1>0\lambda_1>0λ1​>0 and λk+1≤λk\lambda_{k+1}\le\lambda_kλk+1​≤λk​.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that the four axioms leave exactly one degree of freedom per position: a monotone function of the winner's prize. This gives organisers a complete menu of prize schemes that are fair in the anonymous, order-preserving sense and that keep the top of the table unchanged when lower-ranked entrants leave — the property that matters when competitors are eliminated one at a time and paid at the moment of elimination. It contains the single-parametric rules of Theorem 2, the Winner-Takes-Surplus rules, the geometric rules and the proportional rules (Corollary 8) as special cases, and the paper shows in a Remark (p. 33) that the four axioms are logically independent.

The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no part of it has been machine-checked. The formalization adds a reusable layer for variable-population allocation problems — rankings of finite subsets of a fixed universe, subrankings, and consistency axioms restricted to families of subsets — that is not in Mathlib. Formal proofs of both directions, of the milestones, and of Corollary 8 are all welcome.

Difficulty

The "if" direction is a computation, but it requires showing that the parameter xxx is well defined and moves monotonically with EEE, which uses f1(x)=xf_1(x)=xf1​(x)=x and the intermediate value theorem. The "only if" direction must construct the functions fkf_kfk​ from an abstract rule. The natural first idea — define fk(x)f_k(x)fk​(x) as the prize of position kkk when the winner receives xxx — needs the winner's prize to be invertible as a function of EEE, which uses continuity (supplied by Lemma 1, not assumed), strict monotonicity only for the winner, and unboundedness, which comes from order preservation together with exhaustion of the endowment. Top consistency then has to transfer the representation from competitions of size nnn to size n+1n+1n+1, and anonymity has to transfer it from one ranked set to every other one of the same size; the induction over the number of competitors must keep all smaller sizes, since top consistency reduces to every top segment.

Formalization scope

  • A ranked set (N,R)(N,\mathcal R)(N,R) is a duplicate-free nonempty List U, best competitor first; R(i)\mathcal R(i)R(i) is the 1-based index pos l i, and RS\mathcal R_SRS​ is the sublist of entries in SSS. UUU is an arbitrary type with decidable equality; the paper's standing assumptions (countable, at least three elements) are hypotheses of the goal and of Corollary 8, and are omitted from milestones that do not use them.
  • A rule is a function φ : List U → ℝ → U → ℝ; it is required to be a prize allocation rule (nonnegative prizes summing to EEE) on rankings and E≥0E\ge0E≥0, and every axiom quantifies only over that domain. Endowments are reals with E≥0E\ge0E≥0.
  • The representation f1,f2,…f_1,f_2,\dotsf1​,f2​,… is f : ℕ → ℝ → ℝ, indexed from 1 as on the page (f0f_0f0​ unused); continuity, monotonicity, nonnegativity and f1(x)=xf_1(x)=xf1​(x)=x are required on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The parameter xxx is given existentially; it is unique, so this is the page's "where x∈R+x\in\mathbb R_+x∈R+​ is such that".
  • Endowment continuity is coordinatewise continuity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: rules act on every finite ranked subset of UUU, not on a fixed competitor set; top consistency quantifies over exactly the top segments (full or local consistency would change the theorem — the rule of Example 6 is parametric but not locally consistent); the goal is a biconditional; the parametric family includes f1=idf_1=\mathrm{id}f1​=id, the decreasing chain fk+1≤fkf_{k+1}\le f_kfk+1​≤fk​, and continuity of every fkf_kfk​.

Corollary 7 of the paper is not included: its "only if" parts ("for each kkk") fail as written when UUU is finite, since fkf_kfk​ for k>∣U∣k>|U|k>∣U∣ is not determined by the rule.

Selected references

  • B. J. Dietzenbacher and A. Y. Kondratev, Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions, arXiv:2008.08985v2, 2021; Management Science, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08985v2, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4520
  • R. J. Aumann and M. Maschler, Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud, Journal of Economic Theory 36(2):195–213, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(85)90102-4
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, Potential, value, and consistency, Econometrica 57(3):589–614, 1989. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911054
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EconomicsMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Improving Dispute Resolution in Two-Sided Platforms: The Case of Review Blackmail I: Under Centralized Dispute Resolution the Equilibrium Ransom Is Not Monotonically Decreasing in Efficiency γδResearch Paper

Review blackmail on online platforms

Online marketplaces depend on consumer reviews, and a single negative review can move a seller's future sales. Review blackmail exploits this: a consumer buys a product, posts a negative review, and offers to remove it in exchange for a payment. Platforms such as Amazon, eBay, Taobao and TripAdvisor respond with dispute resolution mechanisms that let sellers contest reviews. Papanastasiou, Yang and Zhang (Management Science 69(10), 2023) build a game-theoretic model of the seller, the blackmailer and the market's belief about product quality, and ask how the design of such a mechanism changes the blackmailer's leverage. Their first finding concerns a centralized mechanism, where the seller reports the review and the platform judges it: making the platform faster or more accurate does not always lower the ransom the blackmailer can extract. This mission formalizes that result together with the equilibrium analysis it rests on.

The model

A monopolist sells a product of unobservable quality q∈{l,h}q\in\{l,h\}q∈{l,h}; the market's prior that quality is high is a∈(0,1)a\in(0,1)a∈(0,1). A buyer of a high-quality product has gross utility vjv_jvj​ with probability θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1) and 000 otherwise, with vjv_jvj​ standard uniform; a low-quality product always gives 000. One consumer arrives.

  • With probability β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) he is malicious: he buys, posts a negative review NNN, and demands a ransom rrr for removing it.
  • Otherwise he is regular: at price ppp he buys iff aθvj−p≥0a\theta v_j-p\ge0aθvj​−p≥0, which happens with probability ρ=1−p/(aθ)\rho=1-p/(a\theta)ρ=1−p/(aθ), and posts a truthful review, positive (PPP) or negative (NNN). No purchase means no review, written R=0R=0R=0.

The market sees the review R∈{N,0,P}R\in\{N,0,P\}R∈{N,0,P}, updates its belief to a posterior a′a'a′ by Bayes' rule, and the seller then earns a continuation payoff π(a′)\pi(a')π(a′), with π\piπ nonnegative, convex and strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Facing a ransom demand the seller can settle (sss: pay rrr, the review disappears), do nothing (nnn: the review stays), or report (ccc) the review to the platform's centralized mechanism at a hassle cost c≥0c\ge0c≥0. The platform investigates immediately with probability γ∈[0,1]\gamma\in[0,1]γ∈[0,1] (timeliness) and identifies a malicious review correctly with probability δ∈[0,1]\delta\in[0,1]δ∈[0,1] (accuracy); the review is removed with probability γδ\gamma\deltaγδ, the mechanism efficiency.

The market cannot observe the seller's interaction with the blackmailer. It holds a belief i∈{s,n,c}i\in\{s,n,c\}i∈{s,n,c} about the seller's response, and this belief determines the posteriors: under belief iii a malicious review stays visible with probability ms=0m_s=0ms​=0, mn=1m_n=1mn​=1 or mc=1−γδm_c=1-\gamma\deltamc​=1−γδ, and aRia^i_RaRi​ is the Bayes posterior computed from the resulting review likelihoods. When the market believes iii and the seller plays jjj, his payoff is π(a0i)−r\pi(a^i_0)-rπ(a0i​)−r (j=sj=sj=s), π(aNi)\pi(a^i_N)π(aNi​) (j=nj=nj=n), or γδ π(a0i)+(1−γδ)π(aNi)−c\gamma\delta\,\pi(a^i_0)+(1-\gamma\delta)\pi(a^i_N)-cγδπ(a0i​)+(1−γδ)π(aNi​)−c (j=cj=cj=c). A response iii is an equilibrium if it is a best response to the belief iii; among several equilibria, the seller-preferred one prevails. The malicious consumer buys iff some ransom r>pr>pr>p is accepted in the prevailing equilibrium, and the equilibrium ransom r∗r^*r∗ is the greatest ransom at which settling prevails.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1 (p. 14)

If c>0c>0c>0 and p<π(a)−π(aNn)−cp<\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N)-cp<π(a)−π(aNn​)−c, there are efficiencies 0≤e1<e2≤10\le e_1<e_2\le10≤e1​<e2​≤1 at both of which the malicious consumer purchases, with

r∗(e1)<r∗(e2).r^*(e_1)<r^*(e_2).r∗(e1​)<r∗(e2​).

The equilibrium ransom is not monotonically decreasing in the efficiency γδ\gamma\deltaγδ.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2 (p. 11): aPi=1a^i_P=1aPi​=1, a0i=aa^i_0=aa0i​=a, aNi∈[0,a]a^i_N\in[0,a]aNi​∈[0,a], and closed forms of aNna^n_NaNn​, aNca^c_NaNc​, aNsa^s_NaNs​.
  2. Ordering (§4.1, p. 11): aNs<aNc<aNna^s_N<a^c_N<a^n_NaNs​<aNc​<aNn​ for 0<γδ<10<\gamma\delta<10<γδ<1.
  3. Proposition 1(1)–(3) (p. 13): the exact conditions under which nnn, sss and ccc are equilibria, e.g.
i=n is an equilibrium  ⟺  π(aNn)≥max⁡{π(a)−r, π(a)−c/γδ}.i=n\ \text{is an equilibrium}\iff \pi(a^n_N)\ge\max\{\pi(a)-r,\ \pi(a)-c/\gamma\delta\}.i=n is an equilibrium⟺π(aNn​)≥max{π(a)−r, π(a)−c/γδ}.
  1. Proposition 2(1)–(2) (p. 13): the equilibrium ransom
r∗={π(a)−π(aNn),c≥γδ(π(a)−π(aNn)),(1−γδ)[π(a)−π(aNc)]+c,c<γδ(π(a)−π(aNn)),r^*=\begin{cases}\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N), & c\ge\gamma\delta(\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N)),\\ (1-\gamma\delta)[\pi(a)-\pi(a^c_N)]+c, & c<\gamma\delta(\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N)),\end{cases}r∗={π(a)−π(aNn​),(1−γδ)[π(a)−π(aNc​)]+c,​c≥γδ(π(a)−π(aNn​)),c<γδ(π(a)−π(aNn​)),​

and the malicious consumer purchases iff p<r∗p<r^*p<r∗.

Significance

Corollary 1 is the paper's headline message about centralized dispute resolution: improving the mechanism's timeliness or accuracy can raise the ransom. Below an efficiency threshold the mechanism is never used and the ransom equals the seller's loss from a visible negative review; just above it, the market expects the seller to report blackmail, which softens how it reads a negative review, and the blackmailer can ask for more. This is the motivation for the paper's second design, semi-decentralized dispute resolution, analysed in a companion mission. Proposition 2 is the complete characterization of the blackmailer's equilibrium behaviour under the centralized mechanism and is used again in the paper's pricing analysis (§4.4).

The results are proved in the paper (Appendix C). No machine-checked version exists. This mission produces Lean statements of the model, of the Bayes posteriors, of the equilibrium conditions, of the seller-preferred selection and of the ransom characterization, all derived from the primitive game rather than from the paper's closed forms.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary, but the chain is long and sign-sensitive. The equilibrium conditions require handling a belief-dependent payoff (the posterior depends on what the market believes, not on what the seller does), so a deviation changes the action without changing the posteriors. The ransom characterization needs a three-way comparison of equilibria and the tie-breaking in favour of settling at the boundary, where two equilibria give the same payoff. The corollary needs the jump at the threshold efficiency c/(π(a)−π(aNn))c/(\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N))c/(π(a)−π(aNn​)) to be strictly positive and to survive a small increase of the efficiency: the posterior aNca^c_NaNc​ moves with the efficiency, so a continuity argument for π\piπ composed with the posterior is required, and π\piπ is only assumed convex and strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The natural first idea, comparing the two closed forms of Proposition 2 at a single point, does not suffice, since at the threshold itself the two regimes coincide in value.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. One structure Model with fields a,θ,β,p,ca,\theta,\beta,p,ca,θ,β,p,c and π:R→R\pi:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rπ:R→R; inductive types for quality, reviews (NNN, Z for R=0R=0R=0, PPP) and responses. The posterior post m R is Bayes' rule over the likelihood table with visibility probability mmm of a malicious review; aRia^i_RaRi​ is post (keep (γ*δ) i) R.
  • Standing assumptions (Standing): a,θ,β∈(0,1)a,\theta,\beta\in(0,1)a,θ,β∈(0,1); π≥0\pi\ge0π≥0, convex and strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; c≥0c\ge0c≥0; and 0<p<aθ0<p<a\theta0<p<aθ. The last is implicit in the paper: it makes the purchase probability 1−p/(aθ)1-p/(a\theta)1−p/(aθ) that of a standard uniform valuation and keeps the event R=0R=0R=0 of positive probability. Every theorem also assumes γ,δ∈[0,1]\gamma,\delta\in[0,1]γ,δ∈[0,1].
  • Added hypotheses. 0<γδ<10<\gamma\delta<10<γδ<1 in the ordering (strictness) and in Proposition 1 (the page divides by γδ\gamma\deltaγδ and 1−γδ1-\gamma\delta1−γδ). c>0c>0c>0 in Corollary 1: at c=0c=0c=0 the corollary is false. Corollary 1's hypothesis, printed with a varying γδ\gamma\deltaγδ, is assumed at the threshold efficiency and required at both exhibited efficiencies.
  • Conventions. "Settling prevails" means settling is an equilibrium and no equilibrium pays the seller strictly more (ties go to settling, as in the paper's proof). r∗r^*r∗ is stated with IsGreatest of the set of ransoms at which settling prevails; purchase means some such ransom exceeds ppp. "Not monotonically decreasing" means not nonincreasing.
  • Ruled out. Defining the posteriors by Lemma 2's closed forms, or r∗r^*r∗ by Proposition 2's formulas, would make the milestones definitional; both are defined from the game instead.
  • Infrastructure. Only Mathlib (ConvexOn, StrictMonoOn, IsGreatest). Proofs of the milestones in order, and reusable lemmas on the monotonicity of the posterior in the visibility probability, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Papanastasiou, S. A. Yang, A. H. Zhang, Improving Dispute Resolution in Two-Sided Platforms: The Case of Review Blackmail, Management Science 69(10):6021–6037, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4655 (accepted manuscript: LBS Research Online, eprint 1988, https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/1988/)
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EconomicsMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Improving Dispute Resolution in Two-Sided Platforms: The Case of Review Blackmail II: Under Semi-Decentralized Dispute Resolution with Penalty b the Equilibrium Ransom Has a Two-Regime Closed FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Online marketplaces rely on consumer reviews, and a negative review lowers what future buyers believe about a product. Review blackmail exploits this: a consumer buys, posts a negative review, and offers to remove it for a ransom. Platforms counter with dispute-resolution mechanisms. Papanastasiou, Yang and Zhang (Management Science 69(10), 2023) compare two of them in a Bayesian game between a seller, one consumer and the market. Under the centralized mechanism the seller reports the review and the platform decides whether to remove it. Under the semi-decentralized mechanism the seller removes the review himself, and the platform checks afterwards. If it judges the removal wrongful, it reinstates the review and fines the seller a penalty bbb.

This mission covers the semi-decentralized mechanism. Its main result, Proposition 5, gives the ransom a blackmailer can extract in equilibrium in closed form and says when blackmail pays at all. A platform needs that answer when it chooses the penalty. Mission I of this series treats the centralized mechanism.

Setting

A product has quality q∈{l,h}q\in\{l,h\}q∈{l,h}. The prior that q=hq=hq=h is a∈(0,1)a\in(0,1)a∈(0,1). A buyer of a high-quality product gets a positive experience with probability θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1); a low-quality product never gives one. With probability β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1) the consumer is malicious. A malicious consumer buys at price ppp, posts a negative review NNN and demands a ransom rrr. Otherwise the consumer is regular. A regular consumer buys with probability ρ=1−p/(aθ)\rho=1-p/(a\theta)ρ=1−p/(aθ) (valuation vjv_jvj​ uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1]) and reviews truthfully: positive (PPP) or negative (NNN). No purchase means no review, written R=0R=0R=0; a removed review is also seen as R=0R=0R=0.

The market observes R∈{N,0,P}R\in\{N,0,P\}R∈{N,0,P} and forms the posterior a′a'a′ by Bayes' rule. The seller then earns π(a′)\pi(a')π(a′), where π\piπ is nonnegative, convex and strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Facing a ransom demand, the seller can settle (sss: pay rrr, review removed), do nothing (nnn), or use the mechanism (ddd). Under ddd the platform judges immediately with probability γ∈[0,1]\gamma\in[0,1]γ∈[0,1] (timeliness). It recognises a malicious review with probability δ∈[0,1]\delta\in[0,1]δ∈[0,1] (accuracy). The review is therefore reinstated with probability γ(1−δ)\gamma(1-\delta)γ(1−δ), and the penalty b≥0b\ge0b≥0 is paid with probability 1−δ1-\delta1−δ. Write aRia^i_RaRi​ for the posterior after review RRR when the market believes the seller's response is iii. The payoffs of the three responses are then

π(a0i)−r,π(aNi),(1−γ(1−δ))π(a0i)+γ(1−δ)π(aNi)−(1−δ)b.\pi(a^i_0)-r,\qquad \pi(a^i_N),\qquad (1-\gamma(1-\delta))\pi(a^i_0)+\gamma(1-\delta)\pi(a^i_N)-(1-\delta)b.π(a0i​)−r,π(aNi​),(1−γ(1−δ))π(a0i​)+γ(1−δ)π(aNi​)−(1−δ)b.

The market cannot see the interaction, so iii is an equilibrium at rrr if no response pays more given the belief iii. The equilibrium ransom r∗r^*r∗ is the largest rrr at which settling is an equilibrium and no equilibrium pays the seller more. The malicious consumer buys iff p<r∗p<r^*p<r∗.

A seller could also use the mechanism against genuine negative reviews. Proposition 4 shows that this is deterred exactly when b≥b‾:=(1−γ)[π(a)−π(aNs)]b\ge\underline b:=(1-\gamma)[\pi(a)-\pi(a^s_N)]b≥b​:=(1−γ)[π(a)−π(aNs​)].

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 21)

Let δ<1\delta<1δ<1 and T=1−γ(1−δ)1−δ(π(a)−π(aNn))T=\frac{1-\gamma(1-\delta)}{1-\delta}\big(\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N)\big)T=1−δ1−γ(1−δ)​(π(a)−π(aNn​)).

  1. If b≥T>b‾b\ge T>\underline bb≥T>b​:
r∗=π(a)−π(aNn),and the malicious consumer buys iff p<r∗.r^*=\pi(a)-\pi(a^n_N),\qquad\text{and the malicious consumer buys iff } p<r^*.r∗=π(a)−π(aNn​),and the malicious consumer buys iff p<r∗.
  1. If b‾≤b<T\underline b\le b<Tb​≤b<T:
r∗=(1−δ)(γ(π(a)−π(aNd))+b),and the malicious consumer buys iff p<r∗.r^*=(1-\delta)\big(\gamma(\pi(a)-\pi(a^d_N))+b\big),\qquad\text{and the malicious consumer buys iff } p<r^*.r∗=(1−δ)(γ(π(a)−π(aNd​))+b),and the malicious consumer buys iff p<r∗.

Milestones

  • (5), p. 21: the closed form of aNda^d_NaNd​, together with a0i=aa^i_0=aa0i​=a.
  • §5.1, p. 21: the ordering aNs<aNd<aNna^s_N<a^d_N<a^n_NaNs​<aNd​<aNn​.
  • Proposition 4, p. 20: genuine negative reviews are kept iff b≥b‾b\ge\underline bb≥b​.
  • Proof of Proposition 5, Step 1, pp. 41–42: the conditions under which sss, nnn and ddd are equilibria, one milestone each.

Significance

Proposition 5 has two regimes. If the penalty is high, the mechanism plays no part in blackmail: the seller would never use it, and the ransom equals the one with no mechanism at all. Below the threshold, the ransom is the seller's expected loss from using the mechanism. A lower ransom then means less blackmail, and it pushes the price at which blackmail stops paying downward. The threshold TTT rises with the accuracy δ\deltaδ and falls with the timeliness γ\gammaγ. The paper's later results on pricing and on the platform's penalty build on this characterization.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix C, pp. 41–43). It has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it pins down the equilibrium concept, including the selection among multiple equilibria. It also corrects a printed slip in the proof: the simplified condition for the mechanism to be an equilibrium drops a factor 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.

Difficulty

Each individual equilibrium condition is a rearrangement of payoff inequalities. The difficulty lies in selecting among equilibria. Several responses can be equilibria at the same ransom. Settling prevails only if no other equilibrium pays more, and the equilibria themselves depend on rrr. So the set of ransoms at which settling prevails is not given by one inequality. Its greatest element must be found across three scenarios, comparing three thresholds that involve three different posteriors. Those comparisons require the posterior ordering aNs<aNd<aNna^s_N<a^d_N<a^n_NaNs​<aNd​<aNn​, which comes from Bayes' rule and not from the payoff algebra. Reading the equilibrium condition for sss alone as the answer gives the wrong ransom in case 1.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace ReviewBlackmail.SemiDec, with one structure Model holding a,θ,β,p,γ,δ,ba,\theta,\beta,p,\gamma,\delta,ba,θ,β,p,γ,δ,b and the payoff fut (the paper's π\piπ; Real.pi is never used). The predicate Standing collects the standing assumptions: a,θ,β∈(0,1)a,\theta,\beta\in(0,1)a,θ,β∈(0,1); π\piπ nonnegative, convex and strictly increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1]; γ,δ∈[0,1]\gamma,\delta\in[0,1]γ,δ∈[0,1]; b≥0b\ge0b≥0; and the disclosed addition 0<p<aθ0<p<a\theta0<p<aθ, which makes the purchase probability ρ\rhoρ lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). Per-statement additions, each disclosed in the item:

  • δ<1\delta<1δ<1 on the goal and on Step 1 for nnn and ddd, which divide by 1−δ1-\delta1−δ;
  • 0<γ(1−δ)<10<\gamma(1-\delta)<10<γ(1−δ)<1 on the strict ordering;
  • 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1 on the second half of Proposition 4.

Posteriors are defined by Bayes' rule over an explicit likelihood table with two visibility probabilities: mmm for malicious and ggg for genuine negative reviews. Proposition 4 needs beliefs in which genuine reviews are removed. The payoffs of Proposition 5 keep genuine reviews (g=1g=1g=1), the case the paper reduces to via Proposition 4. Ties in the selection rule go to settling.

The posteriors aRia^i_RaRi​ are never defined by their closed forms, and r∗r^*r∗ is never defined by (6) or (7). The goal is stated with IsGreatest on the set of ransoms at which settling prevails, not with sSup, so neither the closed forms nor junk values of a supremum can make the goal trivial.

A complete development needs only Mathlib's ConvexOn, StrictMonoOn and IsGreatest and real-field algebra. The algebra of Bayes posteriors with two-point priors may be reusable. Proofs of the milestones and the goal are welcome, in any order.

Selected references

  • Y. Papanastasiou, S. A. Yang, A. H. Zhang, Improving Dispute Resolution in Two-Sided Platforms: The Case of Review Blackmail, Management Science 69(10):6021–6037, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4655 (cited from the accepted manuscript, LBS Research Online eprint 1988, https://lbsresearch.london.edu/id/eprint/1988/).
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions 1: A Prize Allocation Rule Satisfies Order Preservation, Endowment Monotonicity and Consistency iff It Is an Interval RuleResearch Paper

Motivation

Sports leagues, tournaments, esports events and research competitions all end with a ranking of the participants and a sum of prize money to divide among them. How the money is split according to the ranking is a design choice with visible consequences: Winner-Takes-All schemes reward only the top, equal division ignores the ranking, and most real prize schedules sit in between. The economics of tournaments has studied prize structures as incentive devices, but it has not asked which schedules follow from principles of fairness and coherence.

Dietzenbacher and Kondratev (arXiv:2008.08985, Management Science 2023) take the axiomatic approach of fair allocation theory to this question. The central axiom is consistency, the variable-population principle that has characterized solutions in bankruptcy, taxation, bargaining and cooperative games (Aumann and Maschler 1985; Young 1987; Lensberg 1988; Thomson 1988; Hart and Mas-Colell 1989): if any subgroup of competitors pools its prizes and re-divides them among themselves by the same rule, nobody's prize changes. This mission formalizes the paper's first main result, which identifies exactly the rules that are consistent, weakly respect the ranking, and never take money away when the endowment grows.

Setting

Let UUU be a countable set of at least three potential competitors. A competition is a triple (N,R,E)(N, \mathcal R, E)(N,R,E): a nonempty finite set N⊆UN \subseteq UN⊆U, a ranking R:N→{1,…,∣N∣}\mathcal R : N \to \{1, \dots, |N|\}R:N→{1,…,∣N∣} (a bijection; iii is ranked above jjj if R(i)<R(j)\mathcal R(i) < \mathcal R(j)R(i)<R(j)), and a prize endowment E≥0E \ge 0E≥0. For a nonempty S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, the subranking RS\mathcal R_SRS​ lists SSS in the order of R\mathcal RR.

A prize allocation rule φ\varphiφ assigns to every competition an allocation φ(N,R,E)∈R+N\varphi(N, \mathcal R, E) \in \mathbb R^N_+φ(N,R,E)∈R+N​ with ∑i∈Nφi(N,R,E)=E\sum_{i \in N} \varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E) = E∑i∈N​φi​(N,R,E)=E. Two basic rules are Equal Division, EDi=E/∣N∣\mathrm{ED}_i = E/|N|EDi​=E/∣N∣, and Winner-Takes-All, WTAi=E\mathrm{WTA}_i = EWTAi​=E if R(i)=1\mathcal R(i) = 1R(i)=1 and 000 otherwise.

The axioms of the main theorem are, for every competition and i,j∈Ni, j \in Ni,j∈N:

  • order preservation: R(i)<R(j)⇒φi(N,R,E)≥φj(N,R,E)\mathcal R(i) < \mathcal R(j) \Rightarrow \varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E) \ge \varphi_j(N, \mathcal R, E)R(i)<R(j)⇒φi​(N,R,E)≥φj​(N,R,E);
  • endowment monotonicity: E<E′⇒φi(N,R,E)≤φi(N,R,E′)E < E' \Rightarrow \varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E) \le \varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E')E<E′⇒φi​(N,R,E)≤φi​(N,R,E′);
  • consistency: for every nonempty S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N and i∈Si \in Si∈S,
φi(N,R,E)=φi(S,RS,∑j∈Sφj(N,R,E)).\varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E) = \varphi_i\Big(S, \mathcal R_S, \sum_{j \in S} \varphi_j(N, \mathcal R, E)\Big).φi​(N,R,E)=φi​(S,RS​,j∈S∑​φj​(N,R,E)).

Anonymity (prizes depend only on ∣N∣|N|∣N∣, the position and EEE) and endowment continuity are auxiliary properties.

An interval rule is given by pairwise disjoint open intervals (ak,bk)(a_k, b_k)(ak​,bk​), k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,…, with ak∈R+a_k \in \mathbb R_+ak​∈R+​ and bk∈R+∪{+∞}b_k \in \mathbb R_+ \cup \{+\infty\}bk​∈R+​∪{+∞}. With n=∣N∣n = |N|n=∣N∣ and r=R(i)r = \mathcal R(i)r=R(i),

φi(N,R,E)={akif nak≤E≤(n−r+1)ak+(r−1)bk;E−(n−r)ak−(r−1)bkif (n−r+1)ak+(r−1)bk≤E≤(n−r)ak+rbk;bkif (n−r)ak+rbk≤E≤nbk;E/notherwise.\varphi_i(N, \mathcal R, E) = \begin{cases} a_k & \text{if } n a_k \le E \le (n - r + 1) a_k + (r - 1) b_k; \\ E - (n - r) a_k - (r - 1) b_k & \text{if } (n - r + 1) a_k + (r - 1) b_k \le E \le (n - r) a_k + r b_k; \\ b_k & \text{if } (n - r) a_k + r b_k \le E \le n b_k; \\ E / n & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}φi​(N,R,E)=⎩⎨⎧​ak​E−(n−r)ak​−(r−1)bk​bk​E/n​if nak​≤E≤(n−r+1)ak​+(r−1)bk​;if (n−r+1)ak​+(r−1)bk​≤E≤(n−r)ak​+rbk​;if (n−r)ak​+rbk​≤E≤nbk​;otherwise.​

At endowment nakn a_knak​ everyone receives aka_kak​; as EEE grows, prizes are raised to bkb_kbk​ one competitor at a time from the top; when E/nE/nE/n lies in no [ak,bk][a_k, b_k][ak​,bk​] the endowment is divided equally. ED has ak=bk=0a_k = b_k = 0ak​=bk​=0; WTA has a1=0a_1 = 0a1​=0, b1=+∞b_1 = +\inftyb1​=+∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 13)

φ satisfies order preservation, endowment monotonicity and consistency  ⟺  φ is an interval rule.\varphi \text{ satisfies order preservation, endowment monotonicity and consistency} \iff \varphi \text{ is an interval rule.}φ satisfies order preservation, endowment monotonicity and consistency⟺φ is an interval rule.

Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 10): endowment monotonicity implies endowment continuity.
  2. Lemma 2 (p. 11): order preservation, endowment monotonicity and consistency imply anonymity.
  3. Lemma 3 (p. 11): two endowment monotonic, consistent rules that agree on all two-competitor competitions agree on all competitions.
  4. The "if" direction (p. 28): every interval rule satisfies the three axioms.
  5. Step 1 (p. 28): for two competitors, if φ(N,R,x1+x2)=(x1,x2)\varphi(N, \mathcal R, x_1 + x_2) = (x_1, x_2)φ(N,R,x1​+x2​)=(x1​,x2​) then φ(N,R,2x1)=(x1,x1)\varphi(N, \mathcal R, 2x_1) = (x_1, x_1)φ(N,R,2x1​)=(x1​,x1​) or φ(N,R,2x2)=(x2,x2)\varphi(N, \mathcal R, 2x_2) = (x_2, x_2)φ(N,R,2x2​)=(x2​,x2​).
  6. Step 2 (p. 29): the two-competitor restriction has the interval form (9),
φ(N,R,E)=(E−ak,ak) on [2ak,ak+bk],(bk,E−bk) on [ak+bk,2bk],(E/2,E/2) otherwise.\varphi(N, \mathcal R, E) = (E - a_k, a_k) \text{ on } [2a_k, a_k + b_k], \quad (b_k, E - b_k) \text{ on } [a_k + b_k, 2b_k], \quad (E/2, E/2) \text{ otherwise.}φ(N,R,E)=(E−ak​,ak​) on [2ak​,ak​+bk​],(bk​,E−bk​) on [ak​+bk​,2bk​],(E/2,E/2) otherwise.

Further statements of §2.3

Lemma 4 (endowment additivity ⇔ scale invariance) and Corollaries 1–4, which single out WTA (winner-loser strict order preservation), ED (strict endowment monotonicity), the Winner-Takes-Surplus rules (winner strict endowment monotonicity) and the pair {ED, WTA} (additivity) inside the family of Theorem 1, are included as supporting theorems.

Significance

Theorem 1 replaces three qualitative requirements by an explicit, countably parametrized family. The family is broad (Equal Division, Winner-Takes-All, the "dollar at a time" rule of Example 1, and their concatenations along the endowment axis), so the theorem is the starting point for every sharper characterization in the paper: strengthening one axiom at a time selects WTA, ED or a Winner-Takes-Surplus rule (Corollaries 1–4), and the second and third missions of this series replace consistency by its local and top variants to obtain the single-parametric and parametric rules. Lemma 3 also isolates a general principle: a monotone consistent rule is determined by its behaviour on pairs.

On the formal side, Mathlib and the platform have no model of variable-population allocation with rankings. This mission provides one (competitions over a universe, subrankings, prize allocation rules and the consistency family of axioms) together with the first machine-checkable statement of a characterization theorem in this area. The paper's proofs are complete; nothing here is open mathematics, and none of it has been formalized before.

Difficulty

Consistency only constrains the rule across competitions; on its own it says nothing about how two competitors share a given endowment. The obvious plan, to read the intervals off the two-competitor allocation path and extend by Lemma 3, fails at the first step: an order preserving, monotone two-competitor path need not be a staircase of horizontal and vertical segments, and nothing about two competitors alone forces it to be. The staircase shape (Step 1) is a genuinely multi-competitor phenomenon that also relies on anonymity, which is not assumed and must be derived (Lemma 2, a six-case analysis over how two competitions share competitors). The countable family of intervals then has to be extracted from the path (Step 2), including endpoints at +∞+\infty+∞ and the gaps where the rule is equal division.

Formalization scope

A ranked set (N,R)(N, \mathcal R)(N,R) is a duplicate-free nonempty List U, best first; ∣N∣|N|∣N∣ is its length and R(i)\mathcal R(i)R(i) = pos l i, the 1-based index. The subranking is the sublist of members of SSS. A rule is a function φ : List U → ℝ → U → ℝ; its values on non-rankings, negative endowments and non-members are irrelevant, and every axiom and the interval-rule definition quantify only over rankings, E≥0E \ge 0E≥0 and i∈Ni \in Ni∈N. The standing assumption on UUU is carried as [Countable U] plus three distinct elements on every statement whose proof needs a third competitor (Lemma 2, Steps 1–2, Theorem 1, Corollaries 1–4); it is unnecessary for Lemmas 1, 3, 4 and for the "if" direction. Interval endpoints bkb_kbk​ are extended reals (EReal), the intervals are indexed by N\mathbb NN (finitely many intervals are padded with ak=bk=0a_k = b_k = 0ak​=bk​=0), ak≤bka_k \le b_kak​≤bk​, and disjointness is of the open intervals. The four cases are implications; "otherwise" means E∉[nak,nbk]E \notin [n a_k, n b_k]E∈/[nak​,nbk​] for every kkk.

The following formalizations would trivialize or change the theorem and are ruled out: a fixed competitor set or a finite UUU of size two (consistency then has no reduced competitions to act on, and Corollary 1(i) fails); consistency restricted to two-element subsets or to some subsets only; a one-directional goal; interval rules without +∞+\infty+∞ endpoints (which excludes WTA and makes the "only if" direction false); and anonymity as an extra hypothesis.

The definitions are reusable by the two companion missions of this series (local and top consistency), which use the same model. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma that consistent monotone rules are determined by pairs, and proofs that ED, WTA and the Example 1 rule are interval rules.

Selected references

  • B. J. Dietzenbacher and A. Y. Kondratev, Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions, arXiv:2008.08985v2, 2021; Management Science 69 (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08985, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4520
  • R. J. Aumann and M. Maschler, Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud, Journal of Economic Theory 36 (1985), 195–213. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(85)90102-4
  • W. Thomson, A study of choice correspondences in economies with a variable number of agents, Journal of Economic Theory 46 (1988), 237–254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(88)90131-7
  • T. Lensberg, Stability and the Nash solution, Journal of Economic Theory 45 (1988), 330–341. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(88)90274-8
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, Potential, value, and consistency, Econometrica 57 (1989), 589–614. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911054
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EconomicsOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Economics of Permissioned Blockchain Adoption I: Blockchain Adoption Raises Total Welfare for Large Horizontal Differentiation Yet Is Not an EquilibriumResearch Paper

Why blockchain adoption in supply chains is an economic question

A permissioned blockchain is a shared ledger that only invited parties may write to. In supply chains it is promoted as a way to make the provenance and quality of goods verifiable by the end consumer: a manufacturer who joins records how a good was produced, and consumers can read that record. Joining is costly, and the parties who pay the cost are not the parties who benefit most from the information. Whether such a technology is adopted at all is therefore a question about incentives, not engineering.

G. Iyengar, F. Saleh, J. Sethuraman and W. Wang, Economics of Permissioned Blockchain Adoption (SSRN 3602376; Management Science, 2023, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4532), build a stylised supply chain with vendors, price-competing manufacturers and consumers with an outside option, and show that welfare-improving adoption can fail to arise in equilibrium. This mission formalizes the first of the paper's two main results, Proposition 4.8, together with the welfare comparisons it rests on. A companion mission formalizes the second, the self-financing transfers of Proposition 4.9.

The supply chain

There are two vendors, of high and low quality h>l≥0h > l \ge 0h>l≥0, and a set MMM of 4m4m4m manufacturers, m≥2m \ge 2m≥2 of each type (qi,ξi)∈{A,B}×{h,l}(q_i,\xi_i) \in \{A,B\}\times\{h,l\}(qi​,ξi​)∈{A,B}×{h,l}. A consumer of horizontal type tkt_ktk​ obtains utility HHH from a good with qi=tkq_i = t_kqi​=tk​ and LLL otherwise, plus the vertical utility ξi\xi_iξi​; here 0≤L<H0 \le L < H0≤L<H, and Δ:=H−L>0\Delta := H - L > 0Δ:=H−L>0 measures horizontal differentiation. Consumers can always take an outside option φk\varphi_kφk​, drawn from a continuous distribution GGG supported on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The high type vendor produces at cost ch(x)=γxc_h(x) = \gamma xch​(x)=γx, γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0; the low type vendor at a strictly increasing convex cost clc_lcl​ with cl(0)=0c_l(0)=0cl​(0)=0 and strictly increasing derivative cl′c_l'cl′​ (Assumption 1, items 1–2).

Manufacturer iii may join the blockchain at cost χi>0\chi_i > 0χi​>0 (ai=1a_i = 1ai​=1) or not (ai=0a_i = 0ai​=0). Three scenarios are compared: full adoption FFF (all adopt), partial adoption PPP (exactly the high type manufacturers adopt) and non-adoption NNN. The paper's Proposition A.1 gives each scenario's equilibrium in closed form: every consumer's best manufacturer offers utility

uF=uP=H+h−γ,uN=H+L+h+l2−γ,u^F = u^P = H + h - \gamma,\qquad u^N = \tfrac{H+L+h+l}{2} - \gamma,uF=uP=H+h−γ,uN=2H+L+h+l​−γ,

the low type vendor price is ΨlF=max⁡{γ−(h−l),0}\Psi^F_l = \max\{\gamma-(h-l),0\}ΨlF​=max{γ−(h−l),0}, ΨlP=max⁡{γ−(h−l)−H−L2,0}\Psi^P_l = \max\{\gamma-(h-l)-\frac{H-L}{2},0\}ΨlP​=max{γ−(h−l)−2H−L​,0}, ΨlN=γ\Psi^N_l = \gammaΨlN​=γ (the high type price is always γ\gammaγ), the low type market shares are slF=(cl′)−1(γ−(h−l))s^F_l = (c_l')^{-1}(\gamma-(h-l))slF​=(cl′​)−1(γ−(h−l)), slP=(cl′)−1(γ−(h−l)−H−L2)s^P_l = (c_l')^{-1}(\gamma-(h-l)-\frac{H-L}{2})slP​=(cl′​)−1(γ−(h−l)−2H−L​), slN=(cl′)−1(γ)s^N_l = (c_l')^{-1}(\gamma)slN​=(cl′​)−1(γ), and shX=G(uX)−slXs^X_h = G(u^X) - s^X_lshX​=G(uX)−slX​. Manufacturers earn zero gross profit Π\PiΠ in every scenario because of price competition.

Welfare in scenario XXX is the sum WX=WVX+WMX+WCXW^X = W^X_V + W^X_M + W^X_CWX=WVX​+WMX​+WCX​ of vendor welfare WVXW^X_VWVX​ (revenue minus production cost of both vendors, (10)), manufacturer welfare WMX=∑i(Π−χiaiX)W^X_M = \sum_{i}(\Pi - \chi_i a^X_i)WMX​=∑i​(Π−χi​aiX​) and consumer welfare WCX=E[max⁡{uX,φ}]W^X_C = \mathbb E[\max\{u^X,\varphi\}]WCX​=E[max{uX,φ}] ((12)). The adoption game (8) lets each manufacturer choose aia_iai​ to maximise Π(ai,a−i)−χiai\Pi(a_i,a_{-i}) - \chi_i a_iΠ(ai​,a−i​)−χi​ai​. An adoption failure is a situation in which full adoption raises total welfare, WF>WNW^F > W^NWF>WN, but is not an equilibrium of the adoption game.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.8 (p. 19)

With LLL fixed and H=L+ΔH = L + \DeltaH=L+Δ,

∃ Δ‾  ∀ Δ>Δ‾:WF(Δ)>WN(Δ)  and full adoption is not an equilibrium,\exists\,\underline\Delta\ \ \forall\,\Delta > \underline\Delta:\quad W^F(\Delta) > W^N(\Delta)\ \text{ and full adoption is not an equilibrium},∃Δ​  ∀Δ>Δ​:WF(Δ)>WN(Δ)  and full adoption is not an equilibrium,

at every such Δ\DeltaΔ at which Assumption 1 holds. The threshold Δ‾\underline\DeltaΔ​ is left unspecified, as in the paper.

Milestones

  • Proposition 4.1 (pp. 15–16): WCF≥WCP>WCNW^F_C \ge W^P_C > W^N_CWCF​≥WCP​>WCN​.
  • Proposition 4.3 (p. 17): WMF<WMP<WMNW^F_M < W^P_M < W^N_MWMF​<WMP​<WMN​.
  • Proposition 4.4 (p. 17): WVF, WVP<WVNW^F_V,\ W^P_V < W^N_VWVF​, WVP​<WVN​.
  • Proposition 4.6 (p. 18): WF,WP>WNW^F, W^P > W^NWF,WP>WN for all sufficiently large Δ\DeltaΔ; at fixed Δ\DeltaΔ, WF<WNW^F < W^NWF<WN once ∑i∈Mχi\sum_{i\in M}\chi_i∑i∈M​χi​ is large and WP<WNW^P < W^NWP<WN once ∑i:ξi=hχi\sum_{i:\xi_i=h}\chi_i∑i:ξi​=h​χi​ is large.
  • Proposition 4.7 (p. 19): neither full nor partial adoption is an equilibrium.

What the result gives

The proposition isolates a mechanism: blockchain information raises consumer surplus, which grows without bound in Δ\DeltaΔ, while Bertrand competition prevents the manufacturers who pay for adoption from capturing any of it. The conclusion is a market failure that persists however valuable the information is, and it motivates the paper's transfer scheme (Proposition 4.9), in which a consumer access fee finances the adopters. The welfare comparisons of Propositions 4.1–4.6 are reusable on their own: they quantify who gains and who loses from information disclosure in a vertically and horizontally differentiated market.

The results are proved in the paper (App. A.2, pp. 33–36). None is machine-checked. This mission produces a checked version of the welfare comparisons and of the failure result in the reduced form described below; the proofs as printed use a density for GGG and a second derivative of clc_lcl​, neither of which the model assumes, so a formal proof has to avoid both.

Where the difficulty lies

The equilibrium part is light once the gross profit is zero. The substance is in the welfare comparisons. Consumer welfare is an expectation E[max⁡{u,φ}]\mathbb E[\max\{u,\varphi\}]E[max{u,φ}] of an outside option with an arbitrary continuous law: strict monotonicity in uuu needs positive mass of φ\varphiφ below uNu^NuN, which is a consequence of Assumption 1 rather than an assumption, and the growth in Δ\DeltaΔ of WF−WNW^F - W^NWF−WN has to be bounded below without a density. Vendor welfare involves the generalised inverse (cl′)−1(c_l')^{-1}(cl′​)−1, which is 000 below cl′(0)c_l'(0)cl′​(0): the comparison WVF<WVNW^F_V < W^N_VWVF​<WVN​ must handle the regime where the low type vendor's share collapses to zero and the regime where it is interior, and must obtain continuity of cl′c_l'cl′​ from convexity rather than from a second derivative.

Formalization scope

The paper describes a signalling and pricing game but does not define its equilibrium concept precisely; Proposition A.1 states the outcomes and every proof in App. A.2 uses only those closed forms. The mission adopts the same reduced form, disclosed in every item: welfare is evaluated at Proposition A.1's prices, shares and utilities; the manufacturers' gross profit Π\PiΠ is the constant 000 for every adoption profile (the paper's statement in the proof of Proposition 4.3, p. 34); an equilibrium of the adoption stage is a pure Nash equilibrium of (8) with that payoff, expressed with AGT.IsPureNash from the published agt_games vocabulary. The signal accuracy is fixed at α=1/2\alpha = 1/2α=1/2, as in the paper's main text.

Conventions: manufacturers are Fin 2 × Bool × Fin m (the Boolean records ξi=h\xi_i = hξi​=h), adoption profiles are Boolean functions, GGG is ProbabilityTheory.cdf μ for a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR, Δ\DeltaΔ is an argument of every statement with H=L+ΔH = L + \DeltaH=L+Δ, and (cl′)−1(x)=sup⁡{s≥0:cl′(s)≤x}(c_l')^{-1}(x) = \sup\{s \ge 0 : c_l'(s) \le x\}(cl′​)−1(x)=sup{s≥0:cl′​(s)≤x}. The standing assumptions are bundled in Model.Standing: m≥2m \ge 2m≥2, 0≤L0 \le L0≤L, 0≤l<h0 \le l < h0≤l<h, γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0, χi>0\chi_i > 0χi​>0, μ\muμ an atomless probability measure with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0)) = 0μ((−∞,0))=0 and positive mass on every interval (a,b)⊆[0,∞)(a,b) \subseteq [0,\infty)(a,b)⊆[0,∞), clc_lcl​ strictly increasing and convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with cl(0)=0c_l(0) = 0cl​(0)=0 and a strictly increasing derivative there. One hypothesis is added to the paper's: φ\varphiφ has a finite mean, which the paper uses (its proof of Proposition 4.1 integrates v p(v)v\,p(v)vp(v)) without stating it. Assumption 1, item 3, depends on Δ\DeltaΔ through HHH and is a hypothesis at each Δ\DeltaΔ; it is satisfiable (for instance with cl(x)=x2c_l(x) = x^2cl​(x)=x2, φ∼Exp(1)\varphi \sim \mathrm{Exp}(1)φ∼Exp(1), γ=1/2\gamma = 1/2γ=1/2, h=1h=1h=1, L=l=0L=l=0L=l=0, Δ=4\Delta = 4Δ=4) and monotone in Δ\DeltaΔ.

The formalization rules out the trivializing readings: the equilibrium predicate is concrete, not an abstract hypothesis; the integrals are of integrable functions, so no junk value 000 enters; the inverse of cl′c_l'cl′​ is the explicit supremum, not Function.invFun; and LLL, not HHH, is held fixed as Δ\DeltaΔ grows.

Needed infrastructure: expectations of max⁡{c,φ}\max\{c,\varphi\}max{c,φ} as a function of ccc (monotonicity, growth), and the generalised inverse of a strictly increasing derivative of a convex function. Both are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome, as are alternative arguments that avoid the density and the second derivative of the printed proofs.

Selected references

  • G. Iyengar, F. Saleh, J. Sethuraman, W. Wang, Economics of Permissioned Blockchain Adoption, SSRN 3602376, version of 2022-08-19. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3602376
  • G. Iyengar, F. Saleh, J. Sethuraman, W. Wang, Economics of Permissioned Blockchain Adoption, Management Science, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4532
  • N. Nisan, T. Roughgarden, É. Tardos, V. Vazirani (eds.), Algorithmic Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2007, Ch. 1 (pure Nash equilibrium). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511800481
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model II: Interoperability Mitigates Dominance, as Lower Interoperability Admits a Duopoly Equilibrium with an Even Larger Dominant PlatformResearch Paper

Interoperability and dominant platforms

Digital markets with strong network effects (messaging, social networks, app stores) tend to concentrate: a platform with more users is worth more to each user. Interoperability, the ability of a platform's users to interact with the users of rival platforms, is a central remedy in current competition policy; the EU Digital Markets Act (2022) mandates it for messaging services offered by designated gatekeepers. Whether interoperability actually reduces the market share of a dominant platform is a question about equilibria of a pricing game.

Ekmekci, White and Wu (Management Science, 2025) answer it in a model of platform competition built on net fees. Their Proposition 6 shows, for a Logit duopoly, that lowering interoperability always admits an equilibrium with an even larger dominant platform; equivalently, interoperability may mitigate dominance. This mission formalizes that result and the steps of its proof.

Setting

There are two platforms j∈{1,2}j\in\{1,2\}j∈{1,2} and one side of users. Platform jjj chooses a net fee tj∈Rt^j\in\mathbb Rtj∈R: the price a user pays, net of the interaction value the platform extracts once the user has joined. With Logit demand and no outside option, platform jjj's market share at the fee profile t=(t1,t2)t=(t^1,t^2)t=(t1,t2) is

nj(t)=e−tje−t1+e−t2.n^j(t)=\frac{e^{-t^j}}{e^{-t^1}+e^{-t^2}} .nj(t)=e−t1+e−t2e−tj​.

Both platforms have marginal cost ccc, and each user values each other user of the same platform at γ\gammaγ, the network externality. The degree of interoperability λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1] lets a user of platform jjj also enjoy λγ\lambda\gammaλγ per user of the rival platform (the paper's (19)), and the platform extracts this value too. Platform jjj's profit is

πj(t)=(tj+γnj+λγn−j−c) nj,n−j=1−nj.\pi^j(t)=\bigl(t^j+\gamma n^j+\lambda\gamma n^{-j}-c\bigr)\,n^j,\qquad n^{-j}=1-n^j .πj(t)=(tj+γnj+λγn−j−c)nj,n−j=1−nj.

A fee profile ttt is a Nash equilibrium in net fees under λ\lambdaλ if no platform can raise its profit by changing its own fee to any other real number. In an equilibrium with nj(t)>1/2n^j(t)>1/2nj(t)>1/2, platform jjj is the dominant platform.

The Lean development (namespace NetFeePlatform.InteropDominance) writes nj(t)n^j(t)nj(t) as demand 0 t j (the 0 is the weight of the absent outside option), πj\pi^jπj as profit 0 c γ lam t j, and equilibrium as IsEquilibrium 0 c γ lam t, with t : Fin 2 → ℝ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6 (p. 23)

Let γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, 0≤λ‾<λ‾≤10\le\underline\lambda<\overline\lambda\le10≤λ​<λ≤1 and γ(1−λ‾)≤27/8\gamma(1-\underline\lambda)\le 27/8γ(1−λ​)≤27/8. If ttt is an equilibrium under λ‾\overline\lambdaλ and nj(t)>1/2n^j(t)>1/2nj(t)>1/2, then there is an equilibrium t′t't′ under λ‾\underline\lambdaλ​ with

nj(t′)>nj(t).n^j(t')>n^j(t).nj(t′)>nj(t).

The equilibrium t′t't′ is not unique in general, and the statement does not say which one; it asserts existence, exactly as the paper does.

Milestones

  1. Logit derivative (p. 13): ∂nj/∂tj=−nj(1−nj)\partial n^j/\partial t^j=-n^j(1-n^j)∂nj/∂tj=−nj(1−nj).
  2. First-order condition (20) (p. 23): every equilibrium satisfies tj=c+11−nj−2γnj−γλ(1−nj)+γλnjt^j=c+\frac1{1-n^j}-2\gamma n^j-\gamma\lambda(1-n^j)+\gamma\lambda n^jtj=c+1−nj1​−2γnj−γλ(1−nj)+γλnj.
  3. Sufficiency (Appendix E.1.3 with (36)): if γ(1−λ)≤27/8\gamma(1-\lambda)\le 27/8γ(1−λ)≤27/8, a fee satisfying (20) is a best response.
  4. Equivalence (p. 24): the market (c,γ,λ)(c,\gamma,\lambda)(c,γ,λ) has the equilibria of the market (c−γλ, γ(1−λ), 0)(c-\gamma\lambda,\ \gamma(1-\lambda),\ 0)(c−γλ, γ(1−λ), 0).
  5. Characterization (p. 51): equilibrium shares are the zeros of ζ(n;λ)=ln⁡n1−n+11−n−1n−2γ(1−λ)(2n−1)\zeta(n;\lambda)=\ln\frac{n}{1-n}+\frac1{1-n}-\frac1n-2\gamma(1-\lambda)(2n-1)ζ(n;λ)=ln1−nn​+1−n1​−n1​−2γ(1−λ)(2n−1), and conversely under the bound of item 3.
  6. Comparison (p. 52): ζ(n;λ‾)−ζ(n;λ‾)=2γ(λ‾−λ‾)(2n−1)<0\zeta(n;\underline\lambda)-\zeta(n;\overline\lambda)=2\gamma(\underline\lambda-\overline\lambda)(2n-1)<0ζ(n;λ​)−ζ(n;λ)=2γ(λ​−λ)(2n−1)<0 for n>1/2n>1/2n>1/2.
  7. Boundary behaviour (p. 52): ζ(n;λ)→∞\zeta(n;\lambda)\to\inftyζ(n;λ)→∞ as n→1−n\to1^-n→1−.

Significance

The result. Proposition 6 is the paper's argument that interoperability mandates can reduce concentration without any change in the platforms' cost or quality: at a fixed network externality, every equilibrium with a dominant platform under a higher degree of interoperability is outsized by an equilibrium under a lower degree, so the largest dominant share an equilibrium can sustain does not increase as interoperability rises. The proof rests on the equivalence of item 4, under which interoperability acts as a reduction of the effective network externality from γ\gammaγ to γ(1−λ)\gamma(1-\lambda)γ(1−λ); Figure 2 of the paper plots the resulting largest equilibrium share as λ\lambdaλ varies at γ=3.375\gamma=3.375γ=3.375.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is three paragraphs, and it identifies equilibria with zeros of ζ\zetaζ. A formal proof has to supply what the text takes for granted: that the first-order condition is necessary at a global Nash equilibrium, that it is sufficient in the stated range, and that a zero of ζ\zetaζ can be turned back into a fee profile. No part of the result has been machine-checked before. A complete development also gives a reusable treatment of Logit demand and of best responses in one-variable concave games.

Difficulty

The algebra of ζ\zetaζ and the intermediate value step are short. The work lies in the equilibrium notion. A Nash equilibrium is a global condition over every unilateral deviation s∈Rs\in\mathbb Rs∈R, and profit is not concave in the platform's own fee. Measured against the platform's own share n∈(0,1)n\in(0,1)n∈(0,1), profit has second derivative −1/(n(1−n)2)+2γ(1−λ)-1/(n(1-n)^2)+2\gamma(1-\lambda)−1/(n(1−n)2)+2γ(1−λ); it is concave exactly when 2γ(1−λ)2\gamma(1-\lambda)2γ(1−λ) does not exceed the minimum 27/427/427/4 of 1/(n(1−n)2)1/(n(1-n)^2)1/(n(1−n)2). Outside that range the first-order condition is not sufficient, and a zero of ζ\zetaζ need not be an equilibrium; the paper does not treat that case.

Formalization scope

  • Model. One side (S=1S=1S=1), two platforms indexed by Fin 2, Logit demand with no outside option (outside weight w=0w=0w=0, literally), common ccc and γ\gammaγ, interoperability λ\lambdaλ written lam. The Setting file states the general JJJ-platform objects (demand with an outside-option weight w≥0w\ge0w≥0, profit with the interoperability term λγ∑k≠jnk\lambda\gamma\sum_{k\ne j}n^kλγ∑k=j​nk, equilibrium, the diversion ratio of (32)); this mission uses them at J=2J=2J=2, w=0w=0w=0.
  • Hypotheses. The paper assumes γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1]. The goal adds γ(1−λ‾)≤27/8\gamma(1-\underline\lambda)\le 27/8γ(1−λ​)≤27/8, the range in which the paper proves that the first-order condition is sufficient (Appendix E.1.3 with (36), the 3.3753.3753.375 of Proposition 2′); the paper's own proof stops at the first-order condition and is not complete without it.
  • Correction. The paper prints ζ(n‾1;λ‾)−ζ(n‾1;λ‾)=4(λ‾−λ‾)γn‾1\zeta(\overline n^1;\underline\lambda)-\zeta(\overline n^1;\overline\lambda)=4(\underline\lambda-\overline\lambda)\gamma\overline n^1ζ(n1;λ​)−ζ(n1;λ)=4(λ​−λ)γn1; the correct value is 2γ(λ‾−λ‾)(2n‾1−1)2\gamma(\underline\lambda-\overline\lambda)(2\overline n^1-1)2γ(λ​−λ)(2n1−1). Its sign is the same, and milestone 6 states the correct value.
  • Ruled out. Equilibrium is never replaced by "the pricing formula (20) holds": that would reduce the goal to an intermediate value argument and remove its substance. Shares are always demand 0 t j at a fee profile, never free variables. Profit keeps the interoperability term; without it λ\lambdaλ would not enter the model at all.
  • Out of scope. General (non-Logit) demand and Assumptions A1–A2, S≥2S\ge2S≥2 sides, J≥3J\ge3J≥3 platforms (Proposition 12), platform-specific cj,γjc^j,\gamma^jcj,γj, the microfoundation of Appendix A, and the numerical Figure 2.
  • Welcome contributions. Proofs of the milestones, in particular the Logit change of variable from fees to shares and the concavity bound, which are reusable in the two companion missions of this series.

Selected references

  • M. Ekmekci, A. White, L. Wu, Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model, Management Science, 2025; accepted working-paper version of December 12, 2024 (the version cited here). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02810
  • J. Crémer, P. Rey, J. Tirole, Connectivity in the Commercial Internet, Journal of Industrial Economics 48(4), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6451.00129
  • Regulation (EU) 2022/1925 (Digital Markets Act), Official Journal of the European Union L 265, 2022. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2022/1925/oj
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model I: Adding a Third Platform Can Produce an Equilibrium Whose Dominant Platform Outsizes Every Platform of Every Duopoly EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Markets organized by platforms (social networks, marketplaces, messaging services) exhibit network effects: a user values a platform more when more users join it. A standing concern in competition policy is that such markets "tip" towards one dominant platform, and the usual remedy proposed is to foster entry. Ekmekci, White and Wu (Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model, Management Science, 2025) develop a tractable model of platform oligopoly in which platforms compete in net fees, the price a user pays net of the interaction value the platform delivers, and use it to examine policy interventions. Their Proposition 4 shows that the intuition "more platforms, less dominance" can fail: with strong network effects, adding a third platform to a duopoly can produce an equilibrium whose leader is larger than any platform of any duopoly equilibrium.

The net-fee approach is the authors' alternative to the "insulated equilibrium" of White and Weyl (2016); the paper's §5 specializes it to Logit demand, where pricing formulas are explicit.

Setting

There are JJJ platforms and one side of users. Platform jjj charges a net fee tj∈Rt^j\in\mathbb Rtj∈R; write t=(t1,…,tJ)t=(t^1,\dots,t^J)t=(t1,…,tJ). Demand has the Logit form (13): with outside-option weight w=ez≥0w=e^{z}\ge0w=ez≥0,

nj(t)=e−tjw+∑ke−tk,n^j(t)=\frac{e^{-t^j}}{w+\sum_k e^{-t^k}},nj(t)=w+∑k​e−tke−tj​,

and in this mission there is no outside option, w=0w=0w=0, so the shares sum to one. Platforms are ex ante identical: common marginal cost ccc and common interaction value γ\gammaγ. Platform jjj's profit ((8) with one side) is

πj(t)=(tj+γ nj(t)−c) nj(t),\pi^j(t)=\big(t^j+\gamma\,n^j(t)-c\big)\,n^j(t),πj(t)=(tj+γnj(t)−c)nj(t),

the net fee plus the interaction value the platform extracts per user, less cost, times its share. A net-fee equilibrium is a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium: no platform jjj can raise πj\pi^jπj by changing its own net fee to any s∈Rs\in\mathbb Rs∈R. Duopoly is J=2J=2J=2, triopoly J=3J=3J=3.

At an equilibrium, each net fee satisfies the Logit pricing formula (14), tj=c+11−nj−2γnjt^j=c+\frac{1}{1-n^j}-2\gamma n^jtj=c+1−nj1​−2γnj. For equilibria with one dominant platform of share 1−n1-n1−n and J−1J-1J−1 equal small platforms of share n/(J−1)n/(J-1)n/(J−1), the paper reduces the equilibrium conditions to a zero of the characterization function

g(n;J)=ln⁡n−ln⁡(J−1)−ln⁡(1−n)+11−nJ−1−2γnJ−1−(1n−2γ(1−n)),0<n<1.g(n;J)=\ln n-\ln(J-1)-\ln(1-n)+\frac{1}{1-\frac{n}{J-1}}-2\gamma\frac{n}{J-1}-\Big(\frac1n-2\gamma(1-n)\Big),\qquad 0<n<1.g(n;J)=lnn−ln(J−1)−ln(1−n)+1−J−1n​1​−2γJ−1n​−(n1​−2γ(1−n)),0<n<1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4 (competition may increase dominance)

For 2ln⁡2+43<γ≤2782\ln2+\tfrac43<\gamma\le\tfrac{27}{8}2ln2+34​<γ≤827​: duopoly has an equilibrium, and there exist a triopoly equilibrium t3t_3t3​ and a platform iii with

nk(t2)<ni(t3)for every duopoly equilibrium t2 and every platform k.n^k(t_2)<n^i(t_3)\quad\text{for every duopoly equilibrium }t_2\text{ and every platform }k.nk(t2​)<ni(t3​)for every duopoly equilibrium t2​ and every platform k.

The comparison is against every duopoly equilibrium and every platform in it, not against one selected equilibrium.

Milestones

  1. The Logit derivative ∂nj/∂tj=−nj(1−nj)\partial n^j/\partial t^j=-n^j(1-n^j)∂nj/∂tj=−nj(1−nj) (p. 13).
  2. Proposition 1 in Logit form (14): every equilibrium satisfies tj=c+11−nj−2γnjt^j=c+\frac1{1-n^j}-2\gamma n^jtj=c+1−nj1​−2γnj (pp. 12–13).
  3. The Logit concavity bound (36): for γ≤27/8\gamma\le27/8γ≤27/8, the pricing formula gives a global best response (p. 43).
  4. The zeros of g(⋅;J)g(\cdot;J)g(⋅;J) are exactly the equilibria with one dominant and J−1J-1J−1 equal small platforms (p. 49).
  5. lim⁡n→0+g(n;J)=−∞\lim_{n\to0^+}g(n;J)=-\inftylimn→0+​g(n;J)=−∞ (p. 49).
  6. g(n;3)−g(n;2)=−ln⁡2+11−n/2−11−n+γng(n;3)-g(n;2)=-\ln2+\frac1{1-n/2}-\frac1{1-n}+\gamma ng(n;3)−g(n;2)=−ln2+1−n/21​−1−n1​+γn (p. 50).
  7. For 2ln⁡2+43<γ≤2782\ln2+\tfrac43<\gamma\le\tfrac{27}{8}2ln2+34​<γ≤827​, g(n;3)>0g(n;3)>0g(n;3)>0 at every zero n∈(0,12]n\in(0,\tfrac12]n∈(0,21​] of g(⋅;2)g(\cdot;2)g(⋅;2) (p. 50).

Significance

The result. Proposition 4 is a counterexample to a policy presumption: entry need not reduce concentration in markets with network effects. With a third platform, the two small platforms can split the fringe so thinly that the leader's share rises above anything sustainable in a duopoly. The result identifies an explicit parameter window; together with the companion results on interoperability (Propositions 6 and 7 of the same paper), it frames which interventions reduce dominance in this model.

Formalizing it. The proposition is proved in the paper partly by a numerical check ("we can verify", p. 50), and its printed interval (2.71,3.375](2.71,3.375](2.71,3.375] is slightly too wide at the bottom: at the symmetric duopoly equilibrium the paper's own criterion requires γ>2ln⁡2+43≈2.7196\gamma>2\ln2+\tfrac43\approx2.7196γ>2ln2+34​≈2.7196. A machine-checked proof would settle the corrected statement, replace the numerical step by an argument, and make the equilibrium characterization through g(n;J)g(n;J)g(n;J) (including the step from first-order conditions to global Nash equilibrium) available for the other results of the series. None of these statements is formalized anywhere to our knowledge.

Difficulty

Three steps resist the obvious argument.

  • First-order conditions are not equilibria. The pricing formula is necessary; that it is sufficient requires profit to be concave in the platform's own share, which holds only for 2γ≤1/(n(1−n)2)2\gamma\le 1/(n(1-n)^2)2γ≤1/(n(1−n)2), i.e. for γ≤27/8\gamma\le 27/8γ≤27/8. Without this, zeros of ggg need not be equilibria.
  • "Any duopoly equilibrium" is universal. Duopoly may have asymmetric equilibria for γ\gammaγ near the top of the range, so the triopoly leader must beat the smallest zero of g(⋅;2)g(\cdot;2)g(⋅;2) in (0,12](0,\tfrac12](0,21​], not only the symmetric one.
  • The positivity of g(n;3)g(n;3)g(n;3) at duopoly zeros is an inequality between transcendental functions of nnn on a γ\gammaγ-dependent set; the paper checks it numerically. Its margin vanishes as γ\gammaγ approaches 2ln⁡2+432\ln2+\tfrac432ln2+34​ at n=12n=\tfrac12n=21​, and the paper's rewriting γ=f(n,J)\gamma=f(n,J)γ=f(n,J) is 0/00/00/0 exactly there.

Formalization scope

  • Lean namespace NetFeePlatform.Competition. The definitions file Setting declares the Logit demand demand w t j, the profit profit w c γ lam t j (with an interoperability term λγ∑k≠jnk\lambda\gamma\sum_{k\ne j}n^kλγ∑k=j​nk, set to λ=0\lambda=0λ=0 throughout this mission), the global Nash predicate IsEquilibrium, and the diversion ratio; GChar declares g(n;J)g(n;J)g(n;J). Platforms are indexed by Fin J.
  • Committed conventions: one side (S=1S=1S=1), Logit demand, common ccc and γ\gammaγ, no outside option (w=0w=0w=0, literally, not a limit z→−∞z\to-\inftyz→−∞), real-valued net fees with deviations over all of R\mathbb RR.
  • The goal's lower bound is 2ln⁡2+432\ln2+\tfrac432ln2+34​ instead of the printed 2.712.712.71 (see Difficulty and the goal's Formalization Note); the upper bound 27/8=3.37527/8=3.37527/8=3.375 is exact. The goal adds the conjunct "duopoly has an equilibrium", the existence claim of Proposition 2′ in this case, so that "any duopoly equilibrium" is not vacuous.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: equilibrium is the global Nash condition, never the first-order condition; the comparison quantifies over all duopoly equilibria; the dominant platform's index is existential, not fixed.
  • Out of scope: general (non-Logit) demand and Assumptions A1–A2, S≥2S\ge2S≥2 sides, platform-specific γj\gamma^jγj and cjc^jcj, the microfoundation of Appendix A, Propositions 2, 2′, 3, 5 and 13.
  • Infrastructure: one-variable calculus (derivatives, concavity, the intermediate value theorem, limits) from Mathlib. The Logit derivative and the concavity-based best-response lemma (milestones 1–3) are reusable for any Logit oligopoly with network effects. Contributions of alternative proofs of milestone 7 (interval arithmetic or monotonicity arguments) are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Ekmekci, A. White, L. Wu, Platform Competition and Interoperability: The Net Fee Model, Management Science, 2025 (accepted working-paper version of December 12, 2024). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.02810
  • A. White, E. G. Weyl, Insulated Platform Competition, SSRN working paper, 2016. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1694317
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Robustness of Second-Price Auctions in Prior-Independent Mechanism Design IV: The Fixed-Reserve Second-Price Auction Has Worst-Case Regret (n/(n+1))ⁿ at Its Best Reserve 1/(n+1)Research Paper

Motivation

A seller who must auction one item without knowing how buyers value it needs a mechanism that performs acceptably against every plausible value distribution. Anunrojwong, Balseiro and Besbes (arXiv:2204.10478, Operations Research 2025) measure performance by regret: the expected revenue lost relative to a seller who knows the realized valuations and extracts the highest one. Their main result (Theorem 1, the subject of mission I of this series) shows that against independent and identically distributed valuations the minimax-regret mechanism is a second-price auction whose reserve price is random, drawn from an explicit distribution.

Practitioners rarely randomize reserves. The natural benchmark is the familiar second-price auction with a fixed deterministic reserve rrr, and the question this mission addresses is how much is lost by insisting on a deterministic reserve: what is the worst-case regret of that auction, and which reserve minimizes it? The paper answers this exactly in Proposition 5 (§5.2.1, p. 24, proof in Appendix D, pp. App-10–11). For a single buyer, regret-optimal posted pricing was studied by Bergemann and Schlag (2008), where a deterministic price 1/21/21/2 has worst-case regret 1/21/21/2; Proposition 5 is the nnn-buyer version of that benchmark.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 buyers with valuations v=(v1,…,vn)v=(v_1,\dots,v_n)v=(v1​,…,vn​) in the type cube [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n, drawn from a joint distribution F\mathbf FF unknown to the seller. Write v(1)=max⁡iviv^{(1)}=\max_i v_iv(1)=maxi​vi​ and v(2)v^{(2)}v(2) for the second-highest valuation. A direct mechanism charges buyer iii a payment pi(v)p_i(v)pi​(v), and its regret under F\mathbf FF is

Rn(m,F)=Ev∼F[v(1)−∑i=1npi(v)].R_n(m,\mathbf F)=\mathbb E_{v\sim\mathbf F}\Big[v^{(1)}-\sum_{i=1}^n p_i(v)\Big].Rn​(m,F)=Ev∼F​[v(1)−i=1∑n​pi​(v)].

The second-price auction with reserve rrr, SPA(r)\mathrm{SPA}(r)SPA(r), gives the item to the highest bidder if the highest bid is at least rrr, at price max⁡(v(2),r)\max(v^{(2)},r)max(v(2),r), and otherwise does not sell. Its revenue is max⁡(v(2),r) 1(v(1)≥r)\max(v^{(2)},r)\,\mathbf 1(v^{(1)}\ge r)max(v(2),r)1(v(1)≥r).

Three classes of distributions on [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n are considered:

  • Fiid\mathcal F_{\mathrm{iid}}Fiid​: product laws G⊗nG^{\otimes n}G⊗n, with GGG a law on [0,1][0,1][0,1];
  • Faff\mathcal F_{\mathrm{aff}}Faff​: exchangeable laws (invariant under permuting buyers) that are affiliated, meaning Pr⁡(A∩B∣S)≥Pr⁡(A∣S)Pr⁡(B∣S)\Pr(A\cap B\mid S)\ge\Pr(A\mid S)\Pr(B\mid S)Pr(A∩B∣S)≥Pr(A∣S)Pr(B∣S) for all increasing sets A,BA,BA,B and every sublattice SSS (a set closed under coordinatewise minimum and maximum);
  • Fmix\mathcal F_{\mathrm{mix}}Fmix​: mixtures of i.i.d. laws, whose joint CDF is F(v)=∫∏iG(vi) dμ(G)\mathbf F(v)=\int\prod_i G(v_i)\,d\mu(G)F(v)=∫∏i​G(vi​)dμ(G) for a probability measure μ\muμ on distributions.

The worst-case regret of SPA(r)\mathrm{SPA}(r)SPA(r) over a class F\mathcal FF is sup⁡F∈FRn(SPA(r),F)\sup_{\mathbf F\in\mathcal F}R_n(\mathrm{SPA}(r),\mathbf F)supF∈F​Rn​(SPA(r),F). The closed form found by the paper is

Wn(r)={max⁡(1−r, r),n=1,(1−r)n(n−1)n−1((1−r)n−r)n−1,n≥2, r≤12,r,n≥2, r>12,W_n(r)=\begin{cases}\max(1-r,\,r), & n=1,\\[2pt] \dfrac{(1-r)^n(n-1)^{n-1}}{((1-r)n-r)^{n-1}}, & n\ge 2,\ r\le\tfrac12,\\[4pt] r, & n\ge2,\ r>\tfrac12,\end{cases}Wn​(r)=⎩⎨⎧​max(1−r,r),((1−r)n−r)n−1(1−r)n(n−1)n−1​,r,​n=1,n≥2, r≤21​,n≥2, r>21​,​

called wcFixed n r in the Lean development.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

For every n≥1n\ge1n≥1, every class F∈{Fiid,Faff,Fmix}\mathcal F\in\{\mathcal F_{\mathrm{iid}},\mathcal F_{\mathrm{aff}},\mathcal F_{\mathrm{mix}}\}F∈{Fiid​,Faff​,Fmix​} and every r∈[0,1]r\in[0,1]r∈[0,1],

sup⁡F∈FRn(SPA(r),F)=Wn(r),\sup_{\mathbf F\in\mathcal F}R_n(\mathrm{SPA}(r),\mathbf F)=W_n(r),F∈Fsup​Rn​(SPA(r),F)=Wn​(r),

the no-reserve auction has Wn(0)=1W_n(0)=1Wn​(0)=1 for n=1n=1n=1 and (n−1n)n−1\big(\frac{n-1}{n}\big)^{n-1}(nn−1​)n−1 for n≥2n\ge2n≥2, and

min⁡r∈[0,1]Wn(r)=Wn(1n+1)=(nn+1)n,\min_{r\in[0,1]}W_n(r)=W_n\Big(\frac1{n+1}\Big)=\Big(\frac n{n+1}\Big)^n,r∈[0,1]min​Wn​(r)=Wn​(n+11​)=(n+1n​)n,

with r∗=1/(n+1)r^*=1/(n+1)r∗=1/(n+1) the unique minimizer.

Milestones

  1. The regret of SPA(r)\mathrm{SPA}(r)SPA(r) under an i.i.d. law with marginal CDF FFF: rF−(r)n−∫0rFn+∫r1(nFn−1−nFn)rF_-(r)^n-\int_0^rF^n+\int_r^1(nF^{n-1}-nF^n)rF−​(r)n−∫0r​Fn+∫r1​(nFn−1−nFn).
  2. For n≥2n\ge2n≥2, the maximum of rcn+(1−r)(ncn−1−ncn)rc^n+(1-r)(nc^{n-1}-nc^n)rcn+(1−r)(ncn−1−ncn) over c∈[n−1n,1]c\in[\frac{n-1}{n},1]c∈[nn−1​,1] equals Wn(r)W_n(r)Wn​(r).
  3. For n=1n=1n=1, the maximum of rc+(1−r)(1−c)rc+(1-r)(1-c)rc+(1−r)(1−c) over c∈[0,1]c\in[0,1]c∈[0,1] is max⁡(1−r,r)\max(1-r,r)max(1−r,r).
  4. WnW_nWn​ is minimized on [0,1][0,1][0,1] exactly at 1/(n+1)1/(n+1)1/(n+1), with value (n/(n+1))n(n/(n+1))^n(n/(n+1))n.
  5. For n≥2n\ge2n≥2, every exchangeable affiliated law gives SPA(r)\mathrm{SPA}(r)SPA(r) regret at most Wn(r)W_n(r)Wn​(r).

Significance

The result. Proposition 5 gives the exact price of determinism. The optimal fixed reserve 1/(n+1)1/(n+1)1/(n+1) has worst-case regret (n/(n+1))n(n/(n+1))^n(n/(n+1))n: 1/21/21/2 for one buyer, 4/94/94/9 for two. The minimax regret of the optimal randomized auction is about 0.3680.3680.368 and 0.3240.3240.324 for the same cases, so the benchmark shows how much of the paper's improvement comes from randomizing the reserve. Both values converge to 1/e1/e1/e as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Proposition 5 also shows that the worst case does not change when valuations are positively dependent (affiliated, or mixtures of i.i.d.), the same robustness the paper establishes for its optimal mechanism.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper in the paper's Appendix D, and no machine-checked version is known. A formal proof needs an expression of the expected revenue of a second-price auction through the order-statistic CDFs, a careful treatment of atoms at the reserve, two elementary but fiddly one-variable optimizations, and, for Faff\mathcal F_{\mathrm{aff}}Faff​ and Fmix\mathcal F_{\mathrm{mix}}Fmix​, the reduction to the i.i.d. case.

Difficulty

The supremum over Fiid\mathcal F_{\mathrm{iid}}Fiid​ is not attained. The auction's revenue jumps at the reserve: a buyer valued exactly at rrr buys, while one valued just below does not. Nature exploits this with two-point laws placing mass just below rrr and the rest at 111, and the regret approaches Wn(r)W_n(r)Wn​(r) only in the limit. So the first idea, exhibiting a maximizing distribution, fails, and any formalization must treat the worst case as a least upper bound. The upper bound over Faff\mathcal F_{\mathrm{aff}}Faff​ is the real difficulty: it rests on an order-statistic identity and on an inequality between the CDFs of the maxima of n−1n-1n−1 and nnn affiliated valuations, which in turn needs properties of affiliation that are quoted from Milgrom and Weber (1982) rather than proved in the paper. For Fmix\mathcal F_{\mathrm{mix}}Fmix​ the bound needs the regret to be linear in the mixing measure, i.e. a disintegration of the mixture law through its joint CDF.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Buyers are Fin n; valuations are vectors Fin n → ℝ; a distribution is a probability measure on Fin n → ℝ whose complement of the cube [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n is null. Fiid\mathcal F_{\mathrm{iid}}Fiid​ is the set of products Measure.pi (fun _ => G) of a probability law G on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Fmix\mathcal F_{\mathrm{mix}}Fmix​ uses a probability measure on Measure ℝ with the Giry σ-algebra and states the CDF identity of Definition 6 for every vvv.
  • The auction. SPA(r)\mathrm{SPA}(r)SPA(r) is the random-reserve auction SPA ρ at ρ = Measure.dirac r; the winner pays max⁡(v(2),r)\max(v^{(2)},r)max(v(2),r) when its bid is at least rrr. Ties go to the lowest index (the paper breaks them arbitrarily; revenue does not depend on the rule).
  • Affiliation is stated cross-multiplied, μ(A∩S)μ(B∩S)≤μ(A∩B∩S)μ(S)\mu(A\cap S)\mu(B\cap S)\le\mu(A\cap B\cap S)\mu(S)μ(A∩S)μ(B∩S)≤μ(A∩B∩S)μ(S), for measurable increasing A,BA,BA,B and measurable sublattices SSS.
  • Conventions committed to. The reserve ranges over [0,1][0,1][0,1] (the page leaves this implicit; for r>1r>1r>1 the closed form is false). Worst-case regret is IsLUB of the set of regrets, not a maximum and not sSup. "The optimal reserve" is IsLeast of WnW_nWn​ on [0,1][0,1][0,1], its value at 1/(n+1)1/(n+1)1/(n+1), and uniqueness of the minimizer.
  • Ruled out. A statement with IsGreatest would be false (the supremum is not attained); sSup of the regret image would be a junk value if the image were unbounded; classes without the [0,1]n[0,1]^n[0,1]n support condition, or rrr unconstrained, change the theorem.
  • Infrastructure. Expected revenue of a second-price auction via order statistics, the CDF of the maximum and second maximum of i.i.d. variables, and the reduction of mixtures to their components are reusable for the rest of this series and for auction theory generally. Contributions to the affiliation inequalities (Milgrom–Weber) are particularly welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Anunrojwong, S. R. Balseiro, O. Besbes, On the Robustness of Second-Price Auctions in Prior-Independent Mechanism Design, arXiv:2204.10478v5, 2024; Operations Research, 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.10478
  • D. Bergemann, K. Schlag, Pricing without Priors, Journal of the European Economic Association 6(2–3), 560–569, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1162/JEEA.2008.6.2-3.560
  • P. R. Milgrom, R. J. Weber, A Theory of Auctions and Competitive Bidding, Econometrica 50(5), 1089–1122, 1982. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911865
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Endogenous Risk Exposure and Systemic Instability I: Banks' Risk-Exposure Choices Are Strategic Complements in Every Financial NetworkResearch Paper

Motivation

Banks lend to each other. When one bank's investments fail, it may be unable to repay its interbank debt, and its creditors then receive less. Since Eisenberg and Noe (2001), the standard way to compute who pays whom after such losses has been a clearing vector: a fixed point of a system in which every bank pays the smaller of what it owes and what it has. Much of the later literature on systemic risk takes the banks' assets as given and asks how losses spread through this fixed point, for example Acemoglu, Ozdaglar and Tahbaz-Salehi (2015).

Chong Shu's paper Endogenous Risk Exposure and Systemic Instability (Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2022.01519) reverses the question: when banks know they are connected, how much risk do they choose? A successful bank pays its interbank debt in full while its failed counterparties do not, so success is partly taxed by the network. This cross-subsidy shrinks the reward for choosing a safe project. The paper's first main result, Proposition 1, says that in every network the banks' risk choices are strategic complements: when one bank takes more risk, every other bank wants to take more risk too. This mission formalizes Proposition 1.

Setting

A finite set of banks is given. For banks i,ji,ji,j, dˉij≥0\bar d_{ij}\ge 0dˉij​≥0 is the face value of the debt that bank jjj owes bank iii. Bank jjj's total interbank liability is dˉj=∑idˉij\bar d_j=\sum_i\bar d_{ij}dˉj​=∑i​dˉij​, assumed positive, and θij=dˉij/dˉj\theta_{ij}=\bar d_{ij}/\bar d_jθij​=dˉij​/dˉj​ is bank iii's share of it. Bank iii also owes a deposit vi>0v_i>0vi​>0, which must be paid before its interbank debt.

Every bank iii picks a project ZiZ_iZi​ from an interval [Z‾,Z‾][\underline Z,\overline Z][Z​,Z]. The project pays ZiZ_iZi​ with probability P(Zi)P(Z_i)P(Zi​) and 000 otherwise, independently across banks. Assumption 1: P(z)∈(0,1)P(z)\in(0,1)P(z)∈(0,1), PPP is decreasing, and P(z) zP(z)\,zP(z)z is concave. A standing assumption rules out systemic default: Z‾≥vi+dˉi\underline Z\ge v_i+\bar d_iZ​≥vi​+dˉi​ for every iii, so a bank whose project succeeds can always pay in full.

A state ω∈{s,f}N\omega\in\{s,f\}^Nω∈{s,f}N records which projects succeeded; bank iii's cash flow is ei=Zie_i=Z_iei​=Zi​ if ωi=s\omega_i=sωi​=s and 000 otherwise. A payment equilibrium d∗(ω;Z)d^*(\omega;Z)d∗(ω;Z) solves

di∗={min⁡[∑jθijdj∗+ei−vi, dˉi]}+for all i.d_i^*=\Big\{\min\Big[\sum_j\theta_{ij}d_j^*+e_i-v_i,\ \bar d_i\Big]\Big\}^+\quad\text{for all } i .di∗​={min[j∑​θij​dj∗​+ei​−vi​, dˉi​]}+for all i.

Bank iii's profit is Πi=(∑jθijdj∗+ei−vi−di∗)+\Pi_i=(\sum_j\theta_{ij}d_j^*+e_i-v_i-d_i^*)^+Πi​=(∑j​θij​dj∗​+ei​−vi​−di∗​)+, and its expected profit E[Πi(ω;Z)]\mathbb E[\Pi_i(\omega;Z)]E[Πi​(ω;Z)] is the sum over states weighted by Pr⁡(ω)=∏jPr⁡(ωj)\Pr(\omega)=\prod_j\Pr(\omega_j)Pr(ω)=∏j​Pr(ωj​). The best-response set Z^i(Z−i)\hat Z_i(Z_{-i})Z^i​(Z−i​) is the set of maximizers of E[Πi]\mathbb E[\Pi_i]E[Πi​] over Zi∈[Z‾,Z‾]Z_i\in[\underline Z,\overline Z]Zi​∈[Z​,Z], with the other banks' choices Z−iZ_{-i}Z−i​ held fixed. The cross-subsidy is

Di(Z−i)=∑ω−i(dˉi−∑jθijdj∗(ωi=s))Pr⁡(ω−i),\mathcal D_i(Z_{-i})=\sum_{\omega_{-i}}\Big(\bar d_i-\sum_j\theta_{ij}d^*_j(\omega^{i=s})\Big)\Pr(\omega_{-i}),Di​(Z−i​)=ω−i​∑​(dˉi​−j∑​θij​dj∗​(ωi=s))Pr(ω−i​),

bank iii's expected net payment to the network when its own project succeeds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 10)

For banks i≠mi\ne mi=m, profiles Z∈[Z‾,Z‾]NZ\in[\underline Z,\overline Z]^NZ∈[Z​,Z]N, and Z′Z'Z′ equal to ZZZ except that Zm≤Zm′Z_m\le Z'_mZm​≤Zm′​:

z^∈Z^i(Z−i), z^′∈Z^i(Z−i′) ⟹ max⁡(z^,z^′)∈Z^i(Z−i′)  and  min⁡(z^,z^′)∈Z^i(Z−i).\hat z\in\hat Z_i(Z_{-i}),\ \hat z'\in\hat Z_i(Z'_{-i})\ \Longrightarrow\ \max(\hat z,\hat z')\in\hat Z_i(Z'_{-i})\ \text{ and }\ \min(\hat z,\hat z')\in\hat Z_i(Z_{-i}).z^∈Z^i​(Z−i​), z^′∈Z^i​(Z−i′​) ⟹ max(z^,z^′)∈Z^i​(Z−i′​)  and  min(z^,z^′)∈Z^i​(Z−i​).

This is the strong-set-order form of "Z^i\hat Z_iZ^i​ is nondecreasing in ZmZ_mZm​". It does not require the network to be regular or path-connected.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. Lemma 2 (p. 8): d∗(ω;Z)d^*(\omega;Z)d∗(ω;Z) does not depend on ZZZ.
  2. Auxiliary Lemma (IA p. 7): d∗(ωj=f)≤d∗(ωj=s)d^*(\omega^{j=f})\le d^*(\omega^{j=s})d∗(ωj=f)≤d∗(ωj=s) componentwise.
  3. (7) (p. 9): E[Πi]=P(Zi)(Zi−vi)−P(Zi)Di(Z−i)+(1−P(Zi))⋅(expected payoff after failure)\mathbb E[\Pi_i]=P(Z_i)(Z_i-v_i)-P(Z_i)\mathcal D_i(Z_{-i})+(1-P(Z_i))\cdot(\text{expected payoff after failure})E[Πi​]=P(Zi​)(Zi​−vi​)−P(Zi​)Di​(Z−i​)+(1−P(Zi​))⋅(expected payoff after failure).
  4. (I.4) (IA p. 8): Di(Z−i)≤Di(Z−i′)\mathcal D_i(Z_{-i})\le\mathcal D_i(Z'_{-i})Di​(Z−i​)≤Di​(Z−i′​).
  5. The Ω−if+\Omega^{f+}_{-i}Ω−if+​ claims (IA p. 9): a bank that survives its own failure pays dˉi\bar d_idˉi​ in full, and its own state does not change what it receives.
  6. Di∗\mathcal D^*_iDi∗​ is increasing in ZmZ_mZm​ (IA p. 10).
  7. Supermodularity (IA p. 10): E[Πi]\mathbb E[\Pi_i]E[Πi​] has increasing differences in (Zi,Zm)(Z_i,Z_m)(Zi​,Zm​).

The regular-network step (I.3) (IA p. 7), that the maximizer of P(z)(z−v)−P(z)DP(z)(z-v)-P(z)DP(z)(z−v)−P(z)D is increasing in DDD, is also posed, as a theorem outside the milestone list.

Significance

Proposition 1 makes the risk-taking game supermodular. That property is what the rest of the paper relies on. It gives existence of equilibrium (Proposition 2) through Tarski's fixed-point theorem, it identifies least and greatest equilibria, and it lets the later comparative statics compare networks: complete against ring, size, central clearing, bailouts. Each of these results argues "the cross-subsidy rises, so equilibrium risk rises", and that step is Proposition 1 applied through Topkis's monotonicity theorem.

On the formal side, no clearing model is currently on the platform. This mission supplies one: the Eisenberg–Noe clearing system with a stochastic state, the greatest clearing vector, expected profits, and best responses. It also checks the paper's proof in the non-regular case. That proof splits on the states in which a bank survives its own failure, and one inequality in it is asserted without proof. The result is proved on paper; none of it has been machine-checked.

Difficulty

In a regular network a failed bank always defaults, and the argument reduces to two monotonicity facts: (I.3) and (I.4). In a non-regular network a failed bank can still earn a profit when enough of its debtors succeed. A riskier counterparty then has two opposite effects. It raises the cross-subsidy, which pushes toward risk, and it lowers the chance of being bailed out after one's own failure, which pushes away from risk. The proof must show that the first effect dominates in every network. It does so by partitioning the states according to whether bank iii survives its own failure, Ω−if+\Omega^{f+}_{-i}Ω−if+​, and by showing that the states in that set contribute nothing to the cross-partial. This requires the clearing vector to be monotone in every bank's success and stable when a surviving bank's own state flips. It also needs an inequality, vi+dˉi≥∑jθijdj∗(ωm=f,i=s)v_i+\bar d_i\ge\sum_j\theta_{ij}d^*_j(\omega^{m=f,i=s})vi​+dˉi​≥∑j​θij​dj∗​(ωm=f,i=s) whenever ω−im=f∉Ω−if+\omega^{m=f}_{-i}\notin\Omega^{f+}_{-i}ω−im=f​∈/Ω−if+​, which the paper asserts without proof.

The naive route is to differentiate the first-order condition, as the paper does in (I.3). That route is not available: Assumption 1 gives neither differentiability of PPP nor a unique maximizer.

Formalization scope

Banks form a finite type, and states are Boolean vectors (true = success). All probabilities are finite products and all expectations are finite sums: no measure theory is involved. Sums over ω−i\omega_{-i}ω−i​ are written as sums over full states with ωi\omega_iωi​ fixed, weighted by the product over j≠ij\ne ij=i.

Conventions the Lean statements commit to:

  • dˉij≥0\bar d_{ij}\ge0dˉij​≥0 rather than the page's dˉij>0\bar d_{ij}>0dˉij​>0. This is the reading forced by the paper's own ring network (Definition 3), and every total dˉj>0\bar d_j>0dˉj​>0 is assumed. Self-loops are allowed.
  • d∗d^*d∗ is the greatest solution of the clearing system, the componentwise supremum of all solutions in [0,dˉ][0,\bar d][0,dˉ]. Lemma 1 asserts only generic uniqueness, so a selection is required. The greatest solution is the one Eisenberg–Noe's algorithm returns, and it equals the solution whenever that is unique.
  • "Decreasing" in Assumption 1 is read weakly (AntitoneOn), which is the more general hypothesis.
  • Every bank's choice, including the varied Zm′Z'_mZm′​, lies in [Z‾,Z‾][\underline Z,\overline Z][Z​,Z], and the no-default assumption Z‾≥vi+dˉi\underline Z\ge v_i+\bar d_iZ​≥vi​+dˉi​ is an explicit hypothesis. Without either, Lemma 2 fails.
  • Derivative statements are replaced by order-theoretic ones: the strong set order for dZ^i/dZm≥0d\hat Z_i/dZ_m\ge0dZ^i​/dZm​≥0 and for (I.3), increasing differences for the cross-partial. Strict ">0>0>0" claims become weak, because they are false when banks iii and mmm are not path-connected.

The goal is vacuous when a best-response set is empty. This is faithful, since Z^i\hat Z_iZ^i​ presupposes a maximizer, and best responses exist whenever PPP is continuous. A formalization that takes d∗d^*d∗ as an arbitrary solution under a uniqueness hypothesis, or as an sSup that could be junk, would trivialize the mission. The definition used here is shown, in a sorry-free check, to solve the clearing system.

Not posed: Lemma 1 (cited from Eisenberg–Noe), Proposition 2 and Corollary 1 (consequences of Proposition 1), and the later comparative statics (Propositions 3–9). Proposition 4, the comparison of complete and ring networks, is a separate mission of this series. Reusable contributions are welcome: monotonicity of greatest fixed points in a parameter, and a general Topkis-style argmax monotonicity on chains.

Selected references

  • Chong Shu, Endogenous Risk Exposure and Systemic Instability, Management Science (accepted manuscript, 17 Sep 2024). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01519
  • Larry Eisenberg and Thomas H. Noe, Systemic Risk in Financial Systems, Management Science 47(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.2.236.9835
  • Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review 105(2), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130456
  • Paul Milgrom and John Roberts, Rationalizability, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games with Strategic Complementarities, Econometrica 58(6), 1990. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938316
  • Paul Milgrom and Chris Shannon, Monotone Comparative Statics, Econometrica 62(1), 1994. https://doi.org/10.2307/2951479
  • Donald M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Acquihiring for Monopsony Power 3: With a Uniform Private Benefit on [0, B], the Acquirer Acquihires Exactly When v_a > v_s + (7 − 3√5)B/2 and Otherwise Hires DirectlyResearch Paper

Motivation

Large technology firms often buy small startups mainly to hire their staff, a practice known as acquihiring. Antitrust authorities review acquisitions that may reduce competition in product markets, but an acquihire can instead reduce competition in the labour market: a firm that buys the employer of a scarce worker no longer has to outbid that employer for her. Bar-Isaac, Johnson and Nocke study this effect in a three-player model: a startup, its essential employee, and a potential acquirer (CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper No. 500, 2024; published in Management Science, 2025, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2024.04604).

In the paper's baseline model (Proposition 1) the acquirer, whenever it hires the employee, does so by buying the startup, and the employee always prefers direct wage competition. This mission formalizes §6, where the employee's private benefit from staying at the startup is her private information. That uncertainty softens wage competition, so acquihiring is no longer always chosen, and the paper derives the exact threshold at which the acquirer switches.

Setting

An employee produces value vav_ava​ if she works for the acquirer and vsv_svs​ if she works for the startup. At the startup she also enjoys a private benefit bbb, which only she observes and which is uniformly distributed on [0,B][0,B][0,B]. She has an outside option worth 000, and wages are unrestricted real numbers. The standing assumptions of §6 are

0<B<min⁡{va,vs},vs−B<va<vs+2B.0 < B < \min\{v_a, v_s\}, \qquad v_s - B < v_a < v_s + 2B .0<B<min{va​,vs​},vs​−B<va​<vs​+2B.

The acquirer chooses between two modes.

  • Direct hiring. The acquirer and the startup make simultaneous wage offers waw_awa​ and wsw_sws​. A type-bbb employee joins the acquirer when wa>ws+bw_a > w_s + bwa​>ws​+b and wa≥0w_a \ge 0wa​≥0, and stays at the startup when ws+b≥waw_s + b \ge w_aws​+b≥wa​ and ws+b≥0w_s + b \ge 0ws​+b≥0. Expected profits are averages over b∼U[0,B]b \sim U[0,B]b∼U[0,B], for example
πa(wa,ws)=1B∫0B(va−wa) 1{type b joins the acquirer} db.\pi_a(w_a, w_s) = \frac1B \int_0^B (v_a - w_a)\,\mathbf 1\{\text{type } b \text{ joins the acquirer}\}\,db .πa​(wa​,ws​)=B1​∫0B​(va​−wa​)1{type b joins the acquirer}db.

A pair (wa,ws)(w_a, w_s)(wa​,ws​) is an equilibrium of this wage game when each offer is a best response to the other over all real wages.

  • Acquihiring. The acquirer bids for the startup. A startup that is a monopsonist pays wage 000 and earns vsv_svs​, so the acquisition succeeds at price vsv_svs​ exactly when va>vsv_a > v_sva​>vs​, and the acquirer then pays the employee 000. The acquirer's acquihiring profit is max⁡{0,va−vs}\max\{0, v_a - v_s\}max{0,va​−vs​} (Lemma 2 of the paper with wage floor 000).

The quantities named in the statements are Lemma 5's wages

wa∗=2va+vs−B3,ws∗=2vs+va−2B3,w_a^* = \frac{2v_a + v_s - B}{3}, \qquad w_s^* = \frac{2v_s + v_a - 2B}{3},wa∗​=32va​+vs​−B​,ws∗​=32vs​+va​−2B​,

the indifferent type b∗=(va−vs+B)/3=wa∗−ws∗b^* = (v_a - v_s + B)/3 = w_a^* - w_s^*b∗=(va​−vs​+B)/3=wa∗​−ws∗​, and the threshold

v^a=vs+7−352 B.\hat v_a = v_s + \frac{7 - 3\sqrt5}{2}\,B .v^a​=vs​+27−35​​B.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5

Under the standing assumptions, v^a>vs\hat v_a > v_sv^a​>vs​, (wa∗,ws∗)(w_a^*, w_s^*)(wa∗​,ws∗​) is a direct-hiring equilibrium, and

va>v^a  ⟹  πa(wa∗,ws∗)<max⁡{0,va−vs},v_a > \hat v_a \;\Longrightarrow\; \pi_a(w_a^*, w_s^*) < \max\{0, v_a - v_s\},va​>v^a​⟹πa​(wa∗​,ws∗​)<max{0,va​−vs​}, va<v^a  ⟹  max⁡{0,va−vs}<πa(wa∗,ws∗)  and the poaching probability is va−vs+B3B.v_a < \hat v_a \;\Longrightarrow\; \max\{0, v_a - v_s\} < \pi_a(w_a^*, w_s^*) \ \text{ and the poaching probability is } \frac{v_a - v_s + B}{3B}.va​<v^a​⟹max{0,va​−vs​}<πa​(wa∗​,ws∗​)  and the poaching probability is 3Bva​−vs​+B​.

In addition, every type b∈[0,B]b \in [0,B]b∈[0,B] of employee is strictly better off under direct hiring than under acquihiring.

Milestones

  1. A monopsonistic startup sets wage 000 and earns vsv_svs​; a monopsonistic acquirer sets wage 000 (§6, p. 15).
  2. Lemma 5: the direct-hiring wages, the poaching probability (va−vs+B)/(3B)∈(0,1)(v_a - v_s + B)/(3B) \in (0,1)(va​−vs​+B)/(3B)∈(0,1), and the acquirer's profit (va−vs+B)2/(9B)(v_a - v_s + B)^2/(9B)(va​−vs​+B)2/(9B).
  3. The two values of vav_ava​ at which the profits are equal, v^a\hat v_av^a​ and vs+(7+35)B/2v_s + (7 + 3\sqrt5)B/2vs​+(7+35​)B/2, and the fact that the second lies above vs+2Bv_s + 2Bvs​+2B.
  4. The welfare display in the proof of Corollary 4, and Corollary 4 itself: acquihiring is more efficient than direct hiring exactly when va>vs+45Bv_a > v_s + \tfrac45 Bva​>vs​+54​B, so on 7−352<(va−vs)/B<45\tfrac{7-3\sqrt5}{2} < (v_a - v_s)/B < \tfrac4527−35​​<(va​−vs​)/B<54​ the acquirer acquihires although direct hiring yields more surplus.

Significance

The proposition separates two effects that coincide in the baseline model. Without private information, wage competition is Bertrand-like: the winning firm must match the losing firm's full willingness to pay, so buying the competitor is always cheaper. With a privately known benefit, competition between the two employers resembles product differentiation, and each offers less than the employee's productive value. Direct hiring then becomes profitable when vav_ava​ is close to vsv_svs​, and acquihiring is chosen only when va−vsv_a - v_sva​−vs​ exceeds 7−352B≈0.146 B\frac{7-3\sqrt5}{2}B \approx 0.146\,B27−35​​B≈0.146B. Corollary 4 compares this threshold with the efficiency threshold 45B\frac45 B54​B and finds a band of parameters in which acquihiring occurs although it lowers total surplus. That band is the paper's case for labour-market scrutiny of acquisitions.

The results are proved on paper, by first-order conditions and a quadratic comparison. None of them has a machine-checked proof, and the platform has no prior formalization of wage competition, monopsony or acquisitions. The mission adds an explicit Bayesian wage game with expected profits written as integrals over the type distribution, with global best responses rather than first-order conditions. The objects are small enough to be reused for other two-firm wage-posting models with a uniformly distributed taste shock.

Difficulty

The algebra of Proposition 5 is a quadratic inequality in (va−vs)/B(v_a - v_s)/B(va​−vs​)/B. The work is in Lemma 5. The page solves first-order conditions inside the region wa≥0w_a \ge 0wa​≥0, 0<wa−ws<B0 < w_a - w_s < B0<wa​−ws​<B, where both expected profits are concave quadratics. An equilibrium, however, requires that no deviation pays anywhere on the real line, including offers so low that no type accepts and offers so high that every type accepts. Outside the interior region the profit functions are piecewise (zero below, linear above), and each piece has to be compared with the interior optimum. The expected profits are interval integrals of indicator functions, so evaluating them requires the measure of the set of accepting types. Ties between the two offers occur with probability zero, and the statements are insensitive to how they are broken.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The parameters vav_ava​, vsv_svs​, BBB form a structure, and the five standing inequalities form a predicate that every theorem except the pure-algebra milestone takes as a hypothesis (that milestone needs only B>0B > 0B>0). Expected profits, the poaching probability and direct-hiring welfare are 1B∫0B\frac1B \int_0^BB1​∫0B​ of bounded, piecewise-constant integrands, hence interval integrable. A verification file evaluates the acquirer's profit at Lemma 5's wages to its closed form on one instance, and exhibits instances of both branches of the proposition and of the window in Corollary 4. Ties b=wa−wsb = w_a - w_sb=wa​−ws​ go to the startup.

Conventions committed to:

  • best responses range over all real wages, which is stronger than the page's first-order conditions;
  • the direct-hiring branch is evaluated at Lemma 5's wages, and Lemma 5's uniqueness clause is claimed only within the interior region where the page derives it; uniqueness among all equilibria is not on the page and is not claimed;
  • the acquihiring profit max⁡{0,va−vs}\max\{0, v_a - v_s\}max{0,va​−vs​} and the employee's acquihiring payoff (000 if va>vsv_a > v_sva​>vs​, otherwise her benefit bbb) are Lemma 2's outcomes with wage floor 000, as §6 states; the milestone on the monopsonistic wage justifies this, and at va=vsv_a = v_sva​=vs​ the acquisition is taken to fail;
  • surplus under acquihiring is vav_ava​, the allocation with the employee at the acquirer, as in Corollary 4.

The direct-hiring profit is an integral over the type distribution evaluated at wages that are proved to be an equilibrium. It is not a closed-form payoff taken as a definition. Dropping any standing inequality would change Lemma 5 (the poaching probability leaves (0,1)(0,1)(0,1)) or Proposition 5 (the second root comes back into range). The employee-preference clause is part of the goal, and no equilibrium is claimed unique beyond what the page derives.

Contributions welcome: the interval-integral evaluations of step functions, the global best-response argument for Lemma 5, and the quadratic comparison with 5\sqrt55​.

Selected references

  • H. Bar-Isaac, J. P. Johnson, V. Nocke, Acquihiring for Monopsony Power, CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper No. 500, January 2024 (the version formalized here; journal version below).
  • H. Bar-Isaac, J. P. Johnson, V. Nocke, Acquihiring for Monopsony Power, Management Science, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2024.04604
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Endogenous Merger Decisions Among Competitors: Impact of Limited Capacity and Loyal Segments: The Mixed Merger Is the Equilibrium Iff α(1−2α)/(1−3α) < k < 1−2α, Else No MergerResearch Paper

Motivation

Antitrust authorities review horizontal mergers by asking whether the merged firm will raise prices. A prior question is which mergers firms will choose to form at all. When several firms can merge, the identity of the partner matters: a large firm may absorb a small rival, or two small rivals may combine to face the large one. Wang, Wu, Tang and Dai (Management Science, 2024) study this partner-selection question in a price-competition model with two frictions common in retail and service markets: limited capacity of the small firms, and loyal segments, buyers who only buy from their own firm. Their main result says exactly which merger, if any, arises in equilibrium. Every step of its proof is an explicit comparison of closed-form profits, which makes the result a natural target for complete machine verification.

Setting

Three firms AAA, BBB, CCC sell a homogeneous product at zero marginal cost. A unit mass of buyers each demand one unit and value it at the reservation price r>0r>0r>0. Each firm has α\alphaα loyal buyers, 0<α<1/30<\alpha<1/30<α<1/3; the remaining 1−3α1-3\alpha1−3α buyers are switchers who buy from the cheapest firm. Firm AAA is unconstrained; the small firms BBB and CCC each have capacity kkk, with α<k<1\alpha<k<1α<k<1. Unserved buyers are rationed at random and spill over to the next cheapest firm.

The firms may stay independent, {A,B,C}\{A,B,C\}{A,B,C}; firm AAA may merge with one small firm, the mixed merger {AB,C}\{AB,C\}{AB,C}; or the two small firms may merge, the small merger {A,BC}\{A,BC\}{A,BC}. A merged entity pools capacities and loyal buyers. In each structure the firms play a price game whose equilibrium is in mixed strategies. The paper's Table A1 lists, for each structure, the lower bound of price support L(0)L^{(0)}L(0), L(AB)L^{(AB)}L(AB), L(BC)L^{(BC)}L(BC) and the equilibrium profits ΠA(0)\Pi^{(0)}_AΠA(0)​, ΠB(0)=ΠC(0)\Pi^{(0)}_B=\Pi^{(0)}_CΠB(0)​=ΠC(0)​, Π(AB)\Pi^{(AB)}Π(AB), ΠC(AB)\Pi^{(AB)}_CΠC(AB)​, ΠA(BC)\Pi^{(BC)}_AΠA(BC)​, Π(BC)\Pi^{(BC)}Π(BC), as piecewise functions of (α,k,r)(\alpha,k,r)(α,k,r) built from

s1=(1−3α)(1−k1−2α),s2=s1(1−kα+s1),s3=(1−3α)(1−2k1−α),s_1=(1-3\alpha)\Bigl(1-\tfrac{k}{1-2\alpha}\Bigr),\quad s_2=s_1\Bigl(1-\tfrac{k}{\alpha+s_1}\Bigr),\quad s_3=(1-3\alpha)\Bigl(1-\tfrac{2k}{1-\alpha}\Bigr),s1​=(1−3α)(1−1−2αk​),s2​=s1​(1−α+s1​k​),s3​=(1−3α)(1−1−α2k​),

the numbers of spilled-over switchers. In the small merger each small firm receives half: ΠB(BC)=ΠC(BC)=Π(BC)/2\Pi^{(BC)}_B=\Pi^{(BC)}_C=\Pi^{(BC)}/2ΠB(BC)​=ΠC(BC)​=Π(BC)/2.

A structure is an equilibrium structure when no firm or coalition gains by deviating. For {AB,C}\{AB,C\}{AB,C} this is

(1a) Π(AB)>ΠA(0)+ΠB(0),(1b) Π(AB)>ΠA(BC)+ΠB(BC)  or  ΠC(AB)≥ΠC(BC);\text{(1a) } \Pi^{(AB)}>\Pi^{(0)}_A+\Pi^{(0)}_B,\qquad \text{(1b) } \Pi^{(AB)}>\Pi^{(BC)}_A+\Pi^{(BC)}_B\ \text{ or }\ \Pi^{(AB)}_C\ge\Pi^{(BC)}_C ;(1a) Π(AB)>ΠA(0)​+ΠB(0)​,(1b) Π(AB)>ΠA(BC)​+ΠB(BC)​  or  ΠC(AB)​≥ΠC(BC)​;

for {A,BC}\{A,BC\}{A,BC} it is

(2a) ΠC(BC)>ΠC(0),(2b) ΠA(BC)+ΠB(BC)≥Π(AB);\text{(2a) } \Pi^{(BC)}_C>\Pi^{(0)}_C,\qquad \text{(2b) } \Pi^{(BC)}_A+\Pi^{(BC)}_B\ge\Pi^{(AB)} ;(2a) ΠC(BC)​>ΠC(0)​,(2b) ΠA(BC)​+ΠB(BC)​≥Π(AB);

and the status quo {A,B,C}\{A,B,C\}{A,B,C} is the equilibrium structure when neither condition (1) nor condition (2) holds.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

With k∗=α(1−2α)/(1−3α)k^*=\alpha(1-2\alpha)/(1-3\alpha)k∗=α(1−2α)/(1−3α),

{S:S is an equilibrium structure}={{{AB,C}}if k∗<k<1−2α,{{A,B,C}}otherwise.\{S : S\text{ is an equilibrium structure}\}= \begin{cases} \{\{AB,C\}\} & \text{if } k^*<k<1-2\alpha,\\ \{\{A,B,C\}\} & \text{otherwise.} \end{cases}{S:S is an equilibrium structure}={{{AB,C}}{{A,B,C}}​if k∗<k<1−2α,otherwise.​

The statement is an exact characterization: in the interval the mixed merger is an equilibrium structure and the small merger is not; outside it neither merger is.

Milestones

  1. Lemmas 3–5: on the regions Ω1,2(0)\Omega^{(0)}_{1,2}Ω1,2(0)​, Ω1,2,3(BC)\Omega^{(BC)}_{1,2,3}Ω1,2,3(BC)​, Ω1,2(AB)\Omega^{(AB)}_{1,2}Ω1,2(AB)​ of the (α,k)(\alpha,k)(α,k) plane, each Table A1 maximum equals one explicit branch.
  2. Proposition 1: for k≥1−2αk\ge 1-2\alphak≥1−2α the independent structure is the unique equilibrium structure.
  3. Proposition 2 and the inequality s2<s3s_2<s_3s2​<s3​ from its proof: L(AB)≥L(BC)≥L(0)L^{(AB)}\ge L^{(BC)}\ge L^{(0)}L(AB)≥L(BC)≥L(0).
  4. The comparisons in the proof of Proposition 3: the Σ\SigmaΣ inequality, the threshold k∗k^*k∗ for (1a), the joint profit of AAA and BBB under {A,B,C}\{A,B,C\}{A,B,C}, {A,BC}\{A,BC\}{A,BC} and {AB,C}\{AB,C\}{AB,C}, and firm CCC's three pairwise profit comparisons.

Significance

The result separates the two forces of the model. Loyal buyers make a merged entity less aggressive in price, which is why no merger is profitable when capacity is ample. Limited capacity creates spillover demand, which a large firm captures by merging with a small rival but which two small firms do not capture by merging with each other. Proposition 3 says the second force wins exactly on (k∗,1−2α)(k^*,1-2\alpha)(k∗,1−2α) and that the small merger never forms. This answers one of the paper's opening questions, whether two capacity-constrained small firms merge to compete with a large one: in this model they do not.

The paper proves the result by hand, over eight regions of the parameter plane (its Figure A1). The comparisons involve rational functions whose denominators are positive only under the region's constraints, and threshold curves with square roots. A machine-checked proof certifies the region bookkeeping. No formalization of this result exists.

Difficulty

Each single comparison is elementary algebra; the difficulty is the case structure. Table A1 has four rows in kkk whose boundaries ((1−2α)2/(2−5α)(1-2\alpha)^2/(2-5\alpha)(1−2α)2/(2−5α), (1−α)/2(1-\alpha)/2(1−α)/2, 1−2α1-2\alpha1−2α) differ per column, and three of its cells are maxima whose active branch changes along the curves k1,2(0)k^{(0)}_{1,2}k1,2(0)​, k1,2(BC)k^{(BC)}_{1,2}k1,2(BC)​, k1(AB)k^{(AB)}_1k1(AB)​. Root-location facts such as α<k1(0)\alpha<k^{(0)}_1α<k1(0)​ and k2(BC)<(1−2α)2/(2−5α)k^{(BC)}_2<(1-2\alpha)^2/(2-5\alpha)k2(BC)​<(1−2α)2/(2−5α) are needed to know which row a region lies in. One inclusion the proof uses is only shown in the paper's figure: on Ω1(BC)\Omega^{(BC)}_1Ω1(BC)​, where condition (2a) holds, one needs k>k∗k>k^*k>k∗ in order to conclude that (2b) fails. At the region boundaries k=(1−α)/2k=(1-\alpha)/2k=(1−α)/2 and k=k1(AB)k=k^{(AB)}_1k=k1(AB)​ several of the proof's strict inequalities are equalities.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated over the reals in the namespace EndogMerger.SymLoyal. All definitions take explicit parameters (α k r : ℝ). The standing assumptions 0<α<1/30<\alpha<1/30<α<1/3, α<k\alpha<kα<k, r>0r>0r>0, and k<1k<1k<1 or k<1−2αk<1-2\alphak<1−2α as each statement requires, are hypotheses of each theorem. Relative to the paper, 0<α0<\alpha0<α replaces 0≤α0\le\alpha0≤α (every region of the analysis has α>0\alpha>0α>0), and r>0r>0r>0 is made explicit. Firm AAA's capacity kA≥1−2αk_A\ge 1-2\alphakA​≥1−2α does not enter Table A1 and is not modelled. The split of Π(AB)\Pi^{(AB)}Π(AB) between AAA and BBB is left unspecified, as in the paper.

Table A1 is the definition. The profits and lower bounds are defined by Table A1's piecewise expressions, row by row, with max where the table has a maximum. The paper's derivation of these values as equilibrium outcomes of a mixed-strategy price game with random rationing is not formalized; Section 6 of the paper itself obtains Proposition 3 from the Table A1 profits. The paper's PDF page numbers are cited throughout; the appendix restarts its printed numbering, so printed page numbers are not used.

Three trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The profits are not defined by the closed forms of Lemmas 3–5, which would make those lemmas definitional. The equilibrium predicate for {A,B,C}\{A,B,C\}{A,B,C} requires that neither condition (1) nor condition (2) holds, so the goal includes the claim that the small merger is never an equilibrium. The thresholds α1(0)\alpha^{(0)}_1α1(0)​ and α1(BC)\alpha^{(BC)}_1α1(BC)​ are not defined by the paper's equation k1(α1)=k2(α1)k_1(\alpha_1)=k_2(\alpha_1)k1​(α1​)=k2​(α1​), which Real.sqrt satisfies for every α\alphaα with a negative radicand. Instead α1(BC)=(11−17)/52\alpha^{(BC)}_1=(11-\sqrt{17})/52α1(BC)​=(11−17​)/52, and α1(0)\alpha^{(0)}_1α1(0)​ is a parameter pinned as the root in (0,1/3)(0,1/3)(0,1/3) of −43α3+43α2−13α+1-43\alpha^3+43\alpha^2-13\alpha+1−43α3+43α2−13α+1.

Where the paper's proof claims a strict inequality on a closed region whose boundary gives equality, the milestone states it on the open region, and its Formalization Note says so.

No library beyond Mathlib's real arithmetic and Real.sqrt is needed. Lemmas about the threshold curves, for example that k1(AB)(α)k^{(AB)}_1(\alpha)k1(AB)​(α) lies in (α,(1−α)/2)(\alpha,(1-\alpha)/2)(α,(1−α)/2), are reusable across milestones. Contributions of intermediate lemmas, including the region inclusion Ω1(BC)⊆{k>k∗}\Omega^{(BC)}_1\subseteq\{k>k^*\}Ω1(BC)​⊆{k>k∗}, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Wang, X. Wu, C. S. Tang, Y. Dai, Endogenous Merger Decisions Among Competitors: Impact of Limited Capacity and Loyal Segments, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01943
  • H. R. Varian, A Model of Sales, American Economic Review 70(4), 1980. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1803558
  • S. W. Salant, S. Switzer, R. J. Reynolds, Losses from Horizontal Merger: The Effects of an Exogenous Change in Industry Structure on Cournot–Nash Equilibrium, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885626
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Coopetition in Platform-Based Retailing: On the Platform’s Entry I: The Seller Prefers Entry Exactly Above Thresholds in Spillover and Referral Rate and Outside a Band of Competition IntensityResearch Paper

Motivation

Large online marketplaces such as Amazon, JD.com and Walmart.com act both as a sales channel for third-party sellers and as a retailer of their own. A platform watches which third-party products sell well and may start selling the same product itself, a move called platform entry. Over ten months of 2013–2014, Amazon entered about 3% of the products first offered only by third-party sellers, and its entry lowered the affected products' sales rankings, that is, raised their total sales (Zhu & Liu, Strategic Management Journal 2018). The conventional view is that a seller should deter entry, since the platform becomes a competitor that also collects a referral fee on every sale the seller makes.

L. Qi, H. Song and W. Xiao (Management Science 2025) build a two-stage model with three features: the platform charges a referral rate on the seller's revenue, the platform's marketing effort spills over to the seller's product, and the two parties compete in quantities with differentiated products. Their Proposition 2 identifies exactly when the seller is better off if the platform enters. This mission formalizes that result together with the equilibrium analysis it rests on.

Setting

There are five parameters: the degree of spillover δ∈[0,1]\delta \in [0,1]δ∈[0,1], the referral rate f∈[0,1)f \in [0,1)f∈[0,1), the competition intensity β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0,1]β∈[0,1], the seller's effort-cost coefficient cSc_ScS​ and the platform's entry cost KKK. The product has base value aaa. The platform's effort-cost coefficient is normalized to 1/21/21/2.

Stage 1. The seller chooses an effort eSe_SeS​ at cost cSeS2c_S e_S^2cS​eS2​, which raises the product value to a+eSa + e_Sa+eS​, and a quantity q1q_1q1​. The price is p1=a+eS−q1p_1 = a + e_S - q_1p1​=a+eS​−q1​, and the seller earns q1p1(1−f)−cSeS2q_1 p_1 (1-f) - c_S e_S^2q1​p1​(1−f)−cS​eS2​ after paying the referral fee fq1p1f q_1 p_1fq1​p1​.

Stage 2 without entry. The seller alone sells qSq_SqS​ at price pS=a+eS−qSp_S = a + e_S - q_SpS​=a+eS​−qS​ and earns qSpS(1−f)q_S p_S(1-f)qS​pS​(1−f).

Stage 2 with entry. The platform chooses an effort eP≥0e_P \ge 0eP​≥0 at cost eP2/2e_P^2/2eP2​/2. Its own product's value becomes a+eS+ePa + e_S + e_Pa+eS​+eP​, and the seller's product's value becomes a+eS+δePa + e_S + \delta e_Pa+eS​+δeP​. The two then choose quantities simultaneously, with prices

pS=a+eS+δeP−qS−βqP,pP=a+eS+eP−qP−βqS.p_S = a + e_S + \delta e_P - q_S - \beta q_P, \qquad p_P = a + e_S + e_P - q_P - \beta q_S .pS​=a+eS​+δeP​−qS​−βqP​,pP​=a+eS​+eP​−qP​−βqS​.

The seller earns qSpS(1−f)q_S p_S (1-f)qS​pS​(1−f). The platform earns qSpSf+qPpP−eP2/2−Kq_S p_S f + q_P p_P - e_P^2/2 - KqS​pS​f+qP​pP​−eP2​/2−K: the referral fee on the seller's revenue plus its own margin.

Backward induction gives closed forms. Write

N5=4(1+δ)−2β(2−δ+δ2)+β3(1+f)−β2(2+f+δf)N_5 = 4(1+\delta) - 2\beta(2-\delta+\delta^2) + \beta^3(1+f) - \beta^2(2+f+\delta f)N5​=4(1+δ)−2β(2−δ+δ2)+β3(1+f)−β2(2+f+δf)

and let DDD be the quartic denominator of the platform's optimal effort (Lemma 2). Condition (5) is N5>0N_5 > 0N5​>0: under it the seller stays in the market after entry. The paper assumes (5) from that point on. Let

H={N52/D2if (5) holds,0otherwise,H = \begin{cases} N_5^2/D^2 & \text{if (5) holds},\\ 0 & \text{otherwise,}\end{cases}H={N52​/D20​if (5) holds,otherwise,​

so that the seller's two-stage profits as functions of the effort eSe_SeS​ are

ΠNS(eS)=12(1−f)(a+eS)2−cSeS2,ΠES(eS)=(14+H)(1−f)(a+eS)2−cSeS2.\Pi^S_N(e_S) = \tfrac12 (1-f)(a+e_S)^2 - c_S e_S^2, \qquad \Pi^S_E(e_S) = \big(\tfrac14 + H\big)(1-f)(a+e_S)^2 - c_S e_S^2 .ΠNS​(eS​)=21​(1−f)(a+eS​)2−cS​eS2​,ΠES​(eS​)=(41​+H)(1−f)(a+eS​)2−cS​eS2​.

The receptive regime is Ω={(δ,f,β)∣H>1/4}\Omega = \{(\delta,f,\beta) \mid H > 1/4\}Ω={(δ,f,β)∣H>1/4}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2

ΠES(eS)>ΠNS(eS)  ⟺  (δ,f,β)∈Ω(a+eS≠0),\Pi^S_E(e_S) > \Pi^S_N(e_S) \iff (\delta,f,\beta) \in \Omega \qquad (a + e_S \ne 0),ΠES​(eS​)>ΠNS​(eS​)⟺(δ,f,β)∈Ω(a+eS​=0),

and the shape of Ω\OmegaΩ on the box [0,1]×[0,1)×[0,1][0,1]\times[0,1)\times[0,1][0,1]×[0,1)×[0,1]:

  • for fixed (f,β)(f,\beta)(f,β) there is δ~(f,β)\tilde\delta(f,\beta)δ~(f,β) with (δ,f,β)∈Ω  ⟺  δ>δ~(f,β)(\delta,f,\beta)\in\Omega \iff \delta > \tilde\delta(f,\beta)(δ,f,β)∈Ω⟺δ>δ~(f,β);
  • for fixed (δ,β)(\delta,\beta)(δ,β) there is f~(δ,β)\tilde f(\delta,\beta)f~​(δ,β) with (δ,f,β)∈Ω  ⟺  f>f~(δ,β)(\delta,f,\beta)\in\Omega \iff f > \tilde f(\delta,\beta)(δ,f,β)∈Ω⟺f>f~​(δ,β);
  • for fixed (δ,f)(\delta,f)(δ,f) there are β1(δ,f)≤β2(δ,f)\beta_1(\delta,f) \le \beta_2(\delta,f)β1​(δ,f)≤β2​(δ,f) with (δ,f,β)∈Ω  ⟺  β<β1(\delta,f,\beta)\in\Omega \iff \beta < \beta_1(δ,f,β)∈Ω⟺β<β1​ or β>β2\beta > \beta_2β>β2​.

The thresholds are existentials, as the paper defines them only inside its proof.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: the stage-2 quantity game after entry has a unique equilibrium, given in closed form.
  2. Lemma 2 under (5): the platform's optimal effort eP∗e^*_PeP∗​ in closed form, and the seller stays (qS∗>0q^*_S > 0qS∗​>0). The positivity of eP∗e^*_PeP∗​ and of its denominator is a separate milestone.
  3. Equations (6)–(8): the seller's equilibrium two-stage profits are ΠNS\Pi^S_NΠNS​ and ΠES\Pi^S_EΠES​ above.
  4. The identity 4N52−D2=P11⋅S24N_5^2 - D^2 = P_{11}\cdot S_24N52​−D2=P11​⋅S2​ from the proof of Proposition 2, where P11P_{11}P11​ is the function (11).
  5. Under (5) the second factor S2S_2S2​ is positive.
  6. Lemma 3, in three parts: the sign pattern of (11) in δ\deltaδ, in fff and in β\betaβ.

Significance

The result. Proposition 2 says that the seller's preference does not depend on the seller's own effort or on the base value, only on (δ,f,β)(\delta, f, \beta)(δ,f,β). It shows that the conventional advice to deter entry is wrong on a nonempty region: a strong enough spillover, or a high enough referral rate (which gives the platform a stake in the seller's sales and so a reason to invest more effort), makes entry welcome. In the competition intensity the regime is not monotone. The seller welcomes entry when products are well differentiated, opposes it at intermediate β\betaβ, and can welcome it again near perfect substitutes. The paper's later results on the seller's optimal effort and on entry deterrence (Proposition 3 onward) are stated separately inside and outside Ω\OmegaΩ, so this classification is their starting point.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, and nothing about it is machine-checked yet. Its proof leans on "one can verify" claims about quartic polynomials on a box: the positivity of DDD, of the platform's effort and of S2S_2S2​ under (5), and the sign patterns of (11). A formal proof checks each of them. The mission also ties the closed forms (6)–(7) to an explicit game, with equilibria defined as best responses, so the comparison is between equilibrium profits and not between formulas taken on trust.

Difficulty

The first part of the goal is immediate once (6)–(7) are known, since ΠES−ΠNS=(H−14)(1−f)(a+eS)2\Pi^S_E - \Pi^S_N = (H - \tfrac14)(1-f)(a+e_S)^2ΠES​−ΠNS​=(H−41​)(1−f)(a+eS​)2. The content lies elsewhere.

  • The equilibrium analysis. The platform's payoff includes the referral fee on the seller's revenue, so its best-response slope is β(1+f)/2\beta(1+f)/2β(1+f)/2, not the textbook β/2\beta/2β/2. The seller's quantity has a corner at zero. The platform's effort problem must be solved against every equilibrium after every deviation, and it reduces to a single variable only after uniqueness in Lemma 1.
  • Polynomial sign conditions. Positivity of DDD and S2S_2S2​ under (5), and the threshold structure of (11) in each variable, are statements about polynomials of degree up to four on a box with the semialgebraic side condition (5).
  • A step the paper omits. Ω\OmegaΩ is defined through HHH, and H=0H = 0H=0 off (5). Moving Lemma 3's thresholds from (11) to Ω\OmegaΩ therefore also needs "(11) >0> 0>0 implies (5)", which the paper does not state. It holds numerically: on a 2013201^32013 grid, wherever (11) is positive the left side of (5) is above 1.011.011.01. A complete proof of the goal must supply it.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The parameters are explicit arguments, and the standing ranges δ∈[0,1]\delta\in[0,1]δ∈[0,1], f∈[0,1)f\in[0,1)f∈[0,1), β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] are a hypothesis InBox δ f β. Every polynomial (N5N_5N5​, DDD, the numerator of eP∗e^*_PeP∗​, (11), S2S_2S2​) is written term for term as printed. HHH keeps the case split of (8), so Ω\OmegaΩ is false wherever (5) fails. Conventions:

  • Defined from the game: the quantity equilibrium (a pure Nash equilibrium over nonnegative quantities, through the published general two-player definition CompetingChains.Cournot.IsPureNash), the entry equilibrium (the platform's effort eP≥0e_P \ge 0eP​≥0 is a global maximizer against every equilibrium after every deviation), and the stage-1 and no-entry problems.
  • The paper's closed forms: HHH, Ω\OmegaΩ, ΠNS\Pi^S_NΠNS​ and ΠES\Pi^S_EΠES​. Milestone 3 proves that the closed forms equal the equilibrium profits.
  • "Optimal" means a global maximizer, ties allowed.
  • The platform's effort is nonnegative. The seller's effort eSe_SeS​ is any real number, as in the paper.
  • Lemmas 1–2 assume a+eS>0a + e_S > 0a+eS​>0 (a positive product value), and Lemma 2 assumes (5), the paper's standing assumption.
  • Only the branch of Lemma 2 under (5) is formalized.
  • The goal's first part assumes a+eS≠0a + e_S \ne 0a+eS​=0. At a+eS=0a + e_S = 0a+eS​=0 both profits equal −cSeS2-c_S e_S^2−cS​eS2​ and no strict preference exists.
  • Condition (5) is not a hypothesis of the goal.

The first part of the goal is near-definitional given (6)–(7). The mission's content is the threshold structure of Ω\OmegaΩ and milestones 1–3, which make (6)–(7) the equilibrium profits. A formalization in which the thresholds may depend on the varying parameter, or in which Ω\OmegaΩ is taken as {(11)>0}\{(11) > 0\}{(11)>0} by definition, would not be this theorem.

A complete development needs real polynomial inequalities on boxes (nlinarith/polyrith-style certificates or interval arguments) and elementary concave maximization. A uniqueness lemma for two-player games whose best responses have slopes with product below one would be reusable for other differentiated Cournot models. Contributions are welcome for any milestone, for the step "(11) >0> 0>0 implies (5)", and for proofs of the sign lemmas by certificates.

Selected references

  • L. Qi, H. Song, W. Xiao, Coopetition in Platform-Based Retailing: On the Platform's Entry, Management Science, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00260 (formalized from the authors' manuscript with Online Supplement, 2024-08-03).
  • F. Zhu, Q. Liu, Competing with complementors: An empirical look at Amazon.com, Strategic Management Journal 39(10), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.2932
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
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EconomicsOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Imperfect Targeting and Advertising Strategies: With Costless Advertising and A < 1/4, Equilibrium Industry Profit Falls as Targeting Improves, Jumps Up at α̂₂(A), Then Stays ConstantResearch Paper

Motivation

Online advertising lets a firm aim its messages at the consumers most likely to want its product, but the data behind that aim is noisy: a platform's prediction of who belongs to a demographic or interest segment is right only with some probability. A natural expectation is that sharper targeting raises firms' profits, since fewer messages are wasted. Karle and Reisinger (SSRN 4626076, March 2024; published in Management Science, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2023.03632) show that this can fail: when both firms chase the same valuable consumers, better targeting also increases the number of consumers who see both firms' advertisements, which intensifies price competition.

The model combines a targeting stage with the clearinghouse price-competition model of Varian (1980) and Narasimhan (1988), in which some consumers are informed about one firm only (loyal consumers) and others about both (shoppers), and equilibrium prices are dispersed. This mission formalizes the paper's result for costless advertising: industry profit first falls as targeting improves, then jumps up when firms switch to segmenting the market, then stays flat.

Setting

There are two consumer groups aaa and bbb, each of mass one. Group-bbb consumers value the product at 111, group-aaa consumers at AAA, with 0<A<10 < A < 10<A<1. Two firms produce at zero cost. For every consumer each firm receives a signal of the consumer's group that is correct with probability α∈(1/2,1]\alpha \in (1/2, 1]α∈(1/2,1], independently across firms. Only consumers of the group a firm targets are interested in its product.

Stage 1. Each firm chooses a target group k∈{a,b}k \in \{a, b\}k∈{a,b} and a message scope: expected (message only the consumers its signal places in group kkk, which reaches a mass α\alphaα of group kkk) or all (message every consumer, which reaches all of group kkk). Messages cost c≥0c \ge 0c≥0 each; in this mission c=0c = 0c=0.

Stage 2. Having observed stage 1, firms set prices. For a stage-1 profile sss, if both firms target the same group, the shoppers S(s)=r1r2S(s) = r_1 r_2S(s)=r1​r2​ are the targeted consumers reached by both, where ri∈{α,1}r_i \in \{\alpha, 1\}ri​∈{α,1} is firm iii's reach; firm iii's loyal mass is Li(s)=ri−S(s)L_i(s) = r_i - S(s)Li​(s)=ri​−S(s). If they target different groups, S(s)=0S(s) = 0S(s)=0 and Li(s)=riL_i(s) = r_iLi​(s)=ri​. A consumer buys if the price does not exceed her valuation; shoppers buy from the cheaper firm and split equally on ties. Firm iii's profit at prices (p,q)(p, q)(p,q) is p (Li+S)p\,(L_i + S)p(Li​+S), p (Li+S/2)p\,(L_i + S/2)p(Li​+S/2) or p Lip\,L_ipLi​ according as p<qp < qp<q, p=qp = qp=q or p>qp > qp>q, and 000 if ppp exceeds the valuation.

Firms may randomize prices: a price strategy is a probability measure on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and Ui(s;μ,ν)U_i(s; \mu, \nu)Ui​(s;μ,ν) is firm iii's expected profit. A subgame perfect Nash equilibrium (SPNE) is a pure stage-1 profile s⋆s^\stars⋆ and a continuation that assigns to each of the sixteen stage-1 profiles a Nash equilibrium of its pricing subgame, such that no firm gains at stage 1 by changing its action. The sum of expected profits is V1(s⋆)+V2(s⋆)V_1(s^\star) + V_2(s^\star)V1​(s⋆)+V2​(s⋆).

Two cumulative distribution functions appear, on [1−α,1)[1-\alpha, 1)[1−α,1):

F(p)=1α−1−ααp,H(p)=p−(1−α)p,F(p) = \frac1\alpha - \frac{1-\alpha}{\alpha p}, \qquad H(p) = \frac{p - (1-\alpha)}{p},F(p)=α1​−αp1−α​,H(p)=pp−(1−α)​,

both 000 below 1−α1-\alpha1−α and 111 from 111 on, so HHH has an atom 1−α1 - \alpha1−α at p=1p = 1p=1. The thresholds are α^1(A)=1−A\hat\alpha_1(A) = 1 - Aα^1​(A)=1−A and α^2(A)=(1+1−4A)/2\hat\alpha_2(A) = \bigl(1 + \sqrt{1 - 4A}\bigr)/2α^2​(A)=(1+1−4A​)/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 15)

For 0<A<1/40 < A < 1/40<A<1/4: 1/2<α^2(A)<α^1(A)1/2 < \hat\alpha_2(A) < \hat\alpha_1(A)1/2<α^2​(A)<α^1​(A); for every α∈(1/2,α^2(A))\alpha \in (1/2, \hat\alpha_2(A))α∈(1/2,α^2​(A)) there is an SPNE with

∑iE[πi⋆(α)]=1−α2,\textstyle\sum_i E[\pi_i^\star(\alpha)] = 1 - \alpha^2,∑i​E[πi⋆​(α)]=1−α2,

which is strictly decreasing in α\alphaα; for every α∈(α^2(A),1]\alpha \in (\hat\alpha_2(A), 1]α∈(α^2​(A),1] there is an SPNE with sum 1+A1 + A1+A; and 1−α^2(A)2<1+A1 - \hat\alpha_2(A)^2 < 1 + A1−α^2​(A)2<1+A (the upward jump).

Milestones

  1. Display (1), p. 11. If both firms target bbb and message expected consumers, both pricing by FFF is an equilibrium with profit α(1−α)\alpha(1-\alpha)α(1−α) each.
  2. Lemma 2 part 1, display (2), pp. 14–15. If firm 1 messages expected and firm 2 all group-bbb consumers, (F,H)(F, H)(F,H) is an equilibrium with profits α(1−α)\alpha(1-\alpha)α(1−α) and 1−α1-\alpha1−α.
  3. Bertrand, p. 13. If both message all group-bbb consumers, pricing at 000 is an equilibrium with zero profits.
  4. Segmentation, pp. 9, 13. If firm 1 targets aaa and firm 2 targets bbb, prices AAA and 111 are an equilibrium.
  5. Threshold, p. 14. For α∈(1/2,1]\alpha \in (1/2, 1]α∈(1/2,1] and A≤1/4A \le 1/4A≤1/4: α(1−α)≥A  ⟺  α≤α^2(A)\alpha(1-\alpha) \ge A \iff \alpha \le \hat\alpha_2(A)α(1−α)≥A⟺α≤α^2​(A).
  6. Footnote 36, p. 15. α^2(A)<α^1(A)\hat\alpha_2(A) < \hat\alpha_1(A)α^2​(A)<α^1​(A) for 0<A<1/40 < A < 1/40<A<1/4.
  7. Lemma 2, pp. 14–15. The SPNE with c=0c = 0c=0 in both regimes.

Significance

The proposition shows that the non-monotonicity of industry profit in targeting precision, which the paper first derives for high advertising costs, does not rely on advertising being costly. With free messages a firm could inform every consumer, which is equivalent to perfect targeting; the equilibrium instead has one firm refrain from doing so, because the resulting asymmetry keeps prices high. For regulation of consumer data and for platforms selling targeting precision, the result says that better targeting technology can lower sellers' profits over a range of precisions and raise them discontinuously elsewhere.

The result is proved in the paper (main text and Online Appendix A). It has not been machine-checked. Formalizing it means verifying mixed-strategy equilibria of a pricing game with a continuum of prices, including an atom at the valuation, in all sixteen subgames of a two-stage game, a pattern that recurs throughout the clearinghouse and price-dispersion literature.

Difficulty

The stage-1 comparison is arithmetic once the stage-2 payoffs are known; the work is in the pricing subgames. Each mixed equilibrium must be verified against every real price deviation, which needs the expected profit at price ppp against a distribution with an atom, where the tie-splitting rule matters exactly at the atom. Subgame perfection requires a pricing equilibrium in every off-path subgame too, including those where both firms target group aaa (the group-bbb equilibria rescaled by AAA) and the Bertrand subgames. The obvious shortcut, assigning each subgame its textbook profit as a number, is not available: the stage-1 values are defined as integrals against the equilibrium strategies.

Formalization scope

Lean 4 with Mathlib. The pricing game is a separate definition (a general clearinghouse duopoly with valuations viv_ivi​, loyal masses LiL_iLi​ and shopper mass SSS); the targeting game builds on it. Committed conventions:

  • price strategies are probability measures on R\mathbb RR with no mass outside [0,1][0,1][0,1]; expected profits are Bochner integrals; deviations range over all real prices;
  • a consumer buys at a price equal to her valuation (the page says "lower than"; the atom of HHH at 111 needs the sale);
  • targeting is in pure strategies (the paper's footnotes 26 and 34); the message scope is binary, the paper's options (1) and (2); the no-message option and the continuous message masses of the appendix proof are not modelled;
  • cdfs are Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf; statements about all measures with cdf FFF also assert that such a measure exists;
  • the paper's "firm iii / firm −i-i−i" are firm 1 (the expected-only firm, and the group-aaa firm) and firm 2;
  • for A>1/4A > 1/4A>1/4 Lean's square root gives α^2(A)=1/2\hat\alpha_2(A) = 1/2α^2​(A)=1/2, the reading Lemma 2's range (max⁡{1/2,α^2(A)},1](\max\{1/2, \hat\alpha_2(A)\}, 1](max{1/2,α^2​(A)},1] needs;
  • pricing-stage profits exclude the sunk message cost; the goal and Lemma 2 are at c=0c = 0c=0.

The goal is Proposition 2 in existence form: it asserts an SPNE with the stated total. The paper exhibits that equilibrium; uniqueness of equilibrium payoffs is not claimed. Propositions 1 and 3 (high and general costs) are not posed. Trivializing encodings are excluded by construction: stage-1 values are integrals of the continuation strategies, not a table; the equilibrium condition quantifies over all sixteen subgames, not just the path; strategies are probability measures on [0,1][0,1][0,1], so no integral takes a junk value; and statements quantifying over measures with a given cdf include the existence of one.

Contributions welcome: integration of the tie-split profit against cdfs with atoms, a reusable lemma that a clearinghouse with given loyal and shopper masses has an equilibrium, and the rescaling of equilibria by the valuation.

Selected references

  • H. Karle and M. Reisinger, Imperfect Targeting and Advertising Strategies, SSRN working paper 4626076, March 25, 2024. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4626076 ; published in Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.03632
  • H. R. Varian, A Model of Sales, American Economic Review 70(4), 651–659, 1980. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1805229
  • C. Narasimhan, Competitive Promotional Strategies, Journal of Business 61(4), 427–449, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1086/296442
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Rural Hospitals Theorem (Wikipedia): All Stable Matchings Fill the Same PositionsTextbook

Motivation

In centralized labour markets such as the US National Resident Matching Program, doctors are assigned to hospital residency positions by a mechanism that produces a stable matching. There are more positions than doctors, so some hospitals end up with empty positions; these are typically rural hospitals, which are less sought after than urban ones. This raised the question of whether a different mechanism could help these hospitals (Roth 1986). The rural hospitals theorem answers this negatively, provided all preferences are strict.

Timeline.

  • 1970: McVitie and Wilson prove the one-to-one case (each hospital has one position): all stable matchings match the same doctors and the same hospitals (doi:10.1007/BF01934199).
  • 1984: Roth proves Part 1 for many-to-one markets: the set of assigned doctors and the number of filled positions at each hospital are the same in all stable matchings (doi:10.1086/261272).
  • 1986: Roth proves Part 2: a hospital with an empty position in some stable matching receives exactly the same doctors in all stable matchings (doi:10.2307/1913160).
  • 2014: Klijn and Yazıcı extend the theorem to many-to-many matching (doi:10.1016/j.jmateco.2014.09.003).

Setting

A market has a finite set DDD of doctors and a finite set HHH of hospitals; hospital hhh has qhq_hqh​ positions. Every doctor strictly ranks the hospitals together with the option of staying unmatched, and every hospital strictly ranks the doctors together with the option of leaving a position empty. An assignment μ\muμ sends each doctor to a hospital or to nothing; μ(h)\mu(h)μ(h) is the set of doctors at hhh. It is a matching if ∣μ(h)∣≤qh|\mu(h)|\le q_h∣μ(h)∣≤qh​ for every hhh.

A matching is stable if (i) no doctor is placed at a hospital she ranks below staying unmatched, and no hospital holds a doctor it ranks below an empty position, and (ii) there is no blocking pair (d,h)(d,h)(d,h): a doctor ddd who prefers hhh to her assignment, while hhh finds ddd acceptable and either has an empty position or prefers ddd to one of its current doctors.

Formalization targets

Goal: the rural hospitals theorem

For any two stable matchings μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν:

μ(d)≠∅  ⟺  ν(d)≠∅  (d∈D),∣μ(h)∣=∣ν(h)∣  (h∈H),∣μ(h)∣<qh  ⟹  ν(h)=μ(h).\mu(d)\ne\varnothing \iff \nu(d)\ne\varnothing\ \ (d\in D),\qquad |\mu(h)|=|\nu(h)|\ \ (h\in H),\qquad |\mu(h)|<q_h \implies \nu(h)=\mu(h).μ(d)=∅⟺ν(d)=∅  (d∈D),∣μ(h)∣=∣ν(h)∣  (h∈H),∣μ(h)∣<qh​⟹ν(h)=μ(h).

Milestones

  1. One position per hospital: a doctor unmatched in one stable matching is unmatched in every stable matching.
  2. One position per hospital: a hospital unmatched in one stable matching is unmatched in every stable matching.
  3. Part 1: the same doctors are assigned, and every hospital fills the same number of positions, in all stable matchings.
  4. Part 2: a hospital with an empty position in some stable matching receives the same set of doctors in all stable matchings.

Significance

The result itself. Changing the matching mechanism, as long as it outputs stable matchings, cannot give under-subscribed hospitals more doctors or different doctors, and cannot change which doctors are employed. Hence policy aimed at rural hospitals must change preferences, capacities, or abandon stability, not merely switch between stable mechanisms.

Formalizing it. The theorem is classical and proved in the cited papers; this mission asks for a machine-checked proof in Lean 4 with Mathlib, for the general many-to-one model with capacities and acceptability, together with the one-position special case.

Difficulty

Comparing two stable matchings one agent at a time does not work: a single doctor moving between hospitals says nothing about how many positions each hospital fills, and the statements concern every agent of the market simultaneously. Stability of both matchings has to be used at once, and Part 2 is strictly stronger than Part 1 (equal numbers of doctors at an under-filled hospital do not imply equal sets of doctors). The existence of a stable matching is not needed for these statements.

Formalization scope

Doctors and hospitals are finite types D, H. Preferences are injective rank functions on Option H (for a doctor) and Option D (for a hospital), smaller rank meaning more preferred and none meaning unmatched or an empty position; injectivity encodes strictness. Hospital preferences over groups are responsive. Capacities are natural numbers and may be zero. An assignment is μ : D → Option H. Stability is Market.IsStable: capacity constraints, individual rationality, and no blocking pair. All statements quantify over arbitrary stable matchings, so they are not vacuous: stable matchings exist in every such market (Gale–Shapley), though existence is not part of this mission.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, an existence theorem for stable matchings in this model, and lemmas about stable matchings reusable in other matching missions.

Selected references

  • D. G. McVitie, L. B. Wilson, Stable marriage assignment for unequal sets, BIT Numerical Mathematics 10 (1970) 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01934199
  • A. E. Roth, The evolution of the labor market for medical interns and residents: a case study in game theory, Journal of Political Economy 92 (1984) 991–1016. https://doi.org/10.1086/261272
  • A. E. Roth, On the allocation of residents to rural hospitals: a general property of two-sided matching markets, Econometrica 54 (1986) 425–427. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913160
  • F. Klijn, A. Yazıcı, A many-to-many 'rural hospital theorem', Journal of Mathematical Economics 54 (2014) 63–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2014.09.003
  • Wikipedia, Rural hospitals theorem, revision 1064508418. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Rural_hospitals_theorem&oldid=1064508418
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CombinatoricsEconomics·Captain: Lucas

Stable Matching Problem (Wikipedia) I: The Gale–Shapley AlgorithmTextbook

Motivation

The stable matching problem asks for a pairing between two equally sized groups in which no two participants would both rather be matched with each other than with their assigned partners. It was posed and solved by Gale and Shapley in 1962 in the context of college admissions and marriage (Gale–Shapley 1962). Their deferred acceptance algorithm underlies centralized clearinghouses such as the assignment of graduating medical students to hospital residencies, and the theory of stable allocations was recognized by the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Shapley and Roth.

Timeline of the results targeted here:

  • 1962 — Gale and Shapley: a stable matching always exists, and the men-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm finds one; its outcome is the best stable matching for every man.
  • 1971 — McVitie and Wilson: the men-optimal stable matching is simultaneously the worst stable matching for every woman.
  • 1981–1982 — Dubins–Freedman and Roth: the men-proposing algorithm is strategy-proof (indeed group strategy-proof) for men, while women can gain by misreporting.
  • 1987 — Gusfield (after Knuth and Conway): the stable matchings of an instance form a finite distributive lattice.

Setting

Fix n≥0n \ge 0n≥0. There are nnn men and nnn women, both indexed by Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn. Each man mmm ranks all women strictly: manRankm(w)∈Fin n\mathrm{manRank}_m(w) \in \mathrm{Fin}\,nmanRankm​(w)∈Finn is the position of www in mmm's list, position 000 being most preferred; symmetrically each woman www has womanRankw\mathrm{womanRank}_wwomanRankw​. Both are bijections. A matching is a bijection μ\muμ from men to women. A pair (m,w)(m, w)(m,w) blocks μ\muμ if manRankm(w)<manRankm(μ(m))\mathrm{manRank}_m(w) < \mathrm{manRank}_m(\mu(m))manRankm​(w)<manRankm​(μ(m)) and womanRankw(m)<womanRankw(μ−1(w))\mathrm{womanRank}_w(m) < \mathrm{womanRank}_w(\mu^{-1}(w))womanRankw​(m)<womanRankw​(μ−1(w)); μ\muμ is stable if no pair blocks it.

The Gale–Shapley algorithm runs in rounds. A state records, for every man, how many women he has proposed to so far, and for every woman, her current provisional fiancé (if any). In each round every unengaged man proposes to the most preferred woman he has not yet proposed to, and every woman keeps the most preferred among her current fiancé and this round's suitors, rejecting the others. The Gale–Shapley outcome is the matching read off from the state after n2n^2n2 rounds.

Formalization targets

Goal: the algorithm produces a stable matching

∀I, ∃μ, μ is the Gale–Shapley outcome of I ∧ μ is stable for I.\forall I,\ \exists \mu,\ \mu \text{ is the Gale–Shapley outcome of } I \ \wedge\ \mu \text{ is stable for } I.∀I, ∃μ, μ is the Gale–Shapley outcome of I ∧ μ is stable for I.

This contains termination (all men are engaged after n2n^2n2 rounds), the fact that the final engagements form a bijection, and stability.

Milestones

  1. Termination: after n2n^2n2 rounds every man is engaged.
  2. Existence: every instance has a stable matching.
  3. Man-optimality: for the Gale–Shapley outcome μ0\mu_0μ0​ and every stable μ\muμ, manRankm(μ0(m))≤manRankm(μ(m))\mathrm{manRank}_m(\mu_0(m)) \le \mathrm{manRank}_m(\mu(m))manRankm​(μ0​(m))≤manRankm​(μ(m)) for every man mmm.
  4. Woman-pessimality: womanRankw(μ−1(w))≤womanRankw(μ0−1(w))\mathrm{womanRank}_w(\mu^{-1}(w)) \le \mathrm{womanRank}_w(\mu_0^{-1}(w))womanRankw​(μ−1(w))≤womanRankw​(μ0−1​(w)) for every woman www.
  5. Truthfulness for men: no single man obtains a strictly better partner (by his true list) by misreporting.
  6. Group strategy-proofness for men: no nonempty coalition of men can misreport so that all its members are strictly better off.
  7. Weak coalitional manipulation: some coalition can misreport so that some members are strictly better off and the rest keep their partners.
  8. Women can manipulate: some woman can obtain a strictly better partner by misreporting.
  9. The 3×3 example: the instance A:YXZA: YXZA:YXZ, B:ZYXB: ZYXB:ZYX, C:XZYC: XZYC:XZY, X:BACX: BACX:BAC, Y:CBAY: CBAY:CBA, Z:ACBZ: ACBZ:ACB has exactly the three stable matchings (AY,BZ,CX)(AY,BZ,CX)(AY,BZ,CX), (AX,BY,CZ)(AX,BY,CZ)(AX,BY,CZ), (AZ,BX,CY)(AZ,BX,CY)(AZ,BX,CY).
  10. Lattice structure: the stable matchings of any instance form a distributive lattice under "every man weakly prefers".

Significance

Existence of stable matchings is the foundation of two-sided matching theory, and the algorithmic proof is constructive. Man-optimality and woman-pessimality show that the proposing side is systematically favored, which is the reason the choice of proposing side matters in practice, as in the 1995 redesign of the residency match. The incentive results (milestones 5–8) explain why participants on the proposing side can safely report their true preferences while the receiving side cannot, and the lattice structure underlies efficient algorithms for enumerating and optimizing over stable matchings.

All results in this mission are classical and proved in the literature. The work here is formalization: a precise model of the round-based algorithm, machine-checked proofs of its correctness and optimality, and the incentive properties, which are usually argued informally.

Difficulty

The goal requires reasoning about an iterated state transformer rather than an abstract existence statement. The step that is usually waved away is the invariant that an unengaged man still has a woman left to propose to, which is what makes the n2n^2n2 bound and the bijectivity of the final engagements work. Man-optimality needs the invariant that no man is ever rejected by a woman who is his partner in some stable matching, which is not visible from the output alone. Group strategy-proofness is substantially harder than individual truthfulness: the known proofs go through a "blocking lemma" about matchings that are weakly preferred by all men.

Formalization scope

Men and women are Fin n; preferences are strict total orders given as rank bijections Fin n ≃ Fin n; matchings are bijections Fin n ≃ Fin n. The algorithm is the round-based version described in the source: all unengaged men propose simultaneously in each round. The algorithm's output is fixed as the state after exactly n2n^2n2 rounds; termination within that bound is itself a milestone, so a wrong bound would make the goal false rather than vacuous. The case n=0n = 0n=0 is included and is trivial. Incentive results compare Gale–Shapley outcomes of two instances that differ only in the lists of the deviating participants, with gains measured by the deviators' true lists.

The definitions are reusable for further missions on the same article (rural hospitals theorem, hospitals/residents problem). Contributions welcome: invariants of the algorithm, the blocking lemma, and alternative proofs of existence.

Selected references

  • D. Gale, L. S. Shapley, College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage, American Mathematical Monthly 69(1), 1962, 9–14. https://doi.org/10.2307/2312726
  • D. G. McVitie, L. B. Wilson, The stable marriage problem, Communications of the ACM 14(7), 1971, 486–490. https://doi.org/10.1145/362619.362631
  • L. E. Dubins, D. A. Freedman, Machiavelli and the Gale–Shapley Algorithm, American Mathematical Monthly 88(7), 1981, 485–494. https://doi.org/10.2307/2321753
  • A. E. Roth, The Economics of Matching: Stability and Incentives, Mathematics of Operations Research 7(4), 1982, 617–628. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.7.4.617
  • D. Gusfield, Three fast algorithms for four problems in stable marriage, SIAM Journal on Computing 16(1), 1987, 111–128. https://doi.org/10.1137/0216010
  • Wikipedia, Stable matching problem. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stable_matching_problem
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Prophet Secretary Through Blind Strategies 2: No Stopping Strategy Can Guarantee More Than √3 − 1 of the Prophet's Expected Maximum in Random OrderResearch Paper

Motivation

In a prophet inequality a gambler sees the realizations of independent nonnegative random variables one at a time and must decide irrevocably, at each step, whether to stop and keep the current value. Her performance is compared with that of a prophet who sees everything in advance and takes the maximum. The ratio between the two is the standard benchmark for online selection, and through the correspondence between threshold stopping rules and posted prices it governs the efficiency of sequential posted-price mechanisms in algorithmic mechanism design.

The constant depends on the order in which the values arrive. In adversarial order the best guarantee is 1/21/21/2 (Krengel and Sucheston; Samuel-Cahn). For independent and identically distributed values it is about 0.7450.7450.745 (Hill and Kertz 1982 gave the upper bound; Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk and Vredeveld 2017 proved it tight). The prophet secretary problem sits between these two: the distributions may differ, but the values arrive in a uniformly random order.

Timeline.

  • 2015: Esfandiari, HajiAghayi, Liaghat and Monemizadeh introduce the prophet secretary problem and give a guarantee of 1−1/e≈0.6321-1/e\approx0.6321−1/e≈0.632 with nonincreasing thresholds.
  • 2018: Ehsani, Hajiaghayi, Kesselheim and Singla obtain 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e with a single threshold and random tie-breaking.
  • 2018: Azar, Chiplunkar and Kaplan beat 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e slightly. They also show that deterministic distribution-insensitive algorithms cannot beat 11/15≈0.73311/15\approx0.73311/15≈0.733.
  • 2019 (arXiv:1807.07483v2): Correa, Saona and Ziliotto prove a guarantee of 0.6690.6690.669 for blind strategies. They also prove the upper bound of 3−1≈0.732\sqrt3-1\approx0.7323​−1≈0.732 for all strategies, the subject of this mission.

Before this bound no separation between the prophet secretary problem and the i.i.d. prophet inequality was known.

Setting

An instance with NNN variables is a family of laws μ0,…,μN−1\mu_0,\dots,\mu_{N-1}μ0​,…,μN−1​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). The values Vi∼μiV_i\sim\mu_iVi​∼μi​ are independent. A permutation σ\sigmaσ of {0,…,N−1}\{0,\dots,N-1\}{0,…,N−1}, uniform and independent of the values, fixes the arrival order: at time jjj the gambler sees which variable σj\sigma_jσj​ arrives and its value VσjV_{\sigma_j}Vσj​​.

A strategy decides at each time jjj whether to stop. The decision may use the observed history ((σ0,Vσ0),…,(σj,Vσj))((\sigma_0,V_{\sigma_0}),\dots,(\sigma_j,V_{\sigma_j}))((σ0​,Vσ0​​),…,(σj​,Vσj​​)) and an independent seed ω\omegaω, uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and must depend on them measurably. These are the randomized stopping times TTT of the gambler's information. The gambler knows the distributions, so a strategy may be chosen after the instance. The reward is VσT1T<∞V_{\sigma_T}\mathbf 1_{T<\infty}VσT​​1T<∞​: the value at the first stop, and 000 if she never stops. The value of a strategy is E(VσT)\mathbb E(V_{\sigma_T})E(VσT​​), and the prophet's value is E(max⁡iVi)\mathbb E(\max_i V_i)E(maxi​Vi​).

A strategy guarantees ccc if E(VσT)≥c E(max⁡iVi)\mathbb E(V_{\sigma_T})\ge c\,\mathbb E(\max_iV_i)E(VσT​​)≥cE(maxi​Vi​) on every instance.

The §5 instance has n+1n+1n+1 variables, for n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and a∈[0,1]a\in[0,1]a∈[0,1]. Each of V1,…,VnV_1,\dots,V_nV1​,…,Vn​ equals nnn with probability 1/n21/n^21/n2 and 000 otherwise, and Vn+1≡aV_{n+1}\equiv aVn+1​≡a. For j∈{1,…,n+1}j\in\{1,\dots,n+1\}j∈{1,…,n+1}, the time-jjj rule accepts a value nnn whenever one appears, and accepts Vn+1V_{n+1}Vn+1​ exactly when it arrives at time jjj or later.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.3 (p. 4)

For every c>3−1c>\sqrt3-1c>3​−1 there is an instance with 0<E(max⁡iVi)<∞0<\mathbb E(\max_iV_i)<\infty0<E(maxi​Vi​)<∞ on which every strategy satisfies

E(VσT)<c⋅E(max⁡iVi).\mathbb E(V_{\sigma_T}) < c\cdot\mathbb E\Big(\max_{i}V_i\Big).E(VσT​​)<c⋅E(imax​Vi​).

The instance comes first and all strategies second. This is what "no strategy can guarantee more than 3−1\sqrt3-13​−1" means once strategies may depend on the distributions. Universally quantifying a fixed strategy first would describe a weaker gambler.

Milestones (all from §5, p. 19)

  1. The prophet's value on the §5 instance:
E(max⁡i≤n+1Vi)=n[1−(1−1n2)n]+(1−1n2)na →n→∞ 1+a.\mathbb E\Big(\max_{i\le n+1}V_i\Big)=n\Big[1-\Big(1-\tfrac1{n^2}\Big)^n\Big]+\Big(1-\tfrac1{n^2}\Big)^na\ \xrightarrow[n\to\infty]{}\ 1+a .E(i≤n+1max​Vi​)=n[1−(1−n21​)n]+(1−n21​)na n→∞​ 1+a.
  1. The elementary bound n[1−(1−1/n2)i−1]≤(i−1)/nn[1-(1-1/n^2)^{i-1}]\le (i-1)/nn[1−(1−1/n2)i−1]≤(i−1)/n, which is a published platform theorem (1−(1−t)m≤mt1-(1-t)^m\le mt1−(1−t)m≤mt for t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1]).
  2. The conditional values of the time-jjj rule given that Vn+1V_{n+1}Vn+1​ arrives at position iii: n[1−(1−1/n2)n]n[1-(1-1/n^2)^n]n[1−(1−1/n2)n] for i<ji<ji<j, and n[1−(1−1/n2)i−1]+(1−1/n2)i−1an[1-(1-1/n^2)^{i-1}]+(1-1/n^2)^{i-1}an[1−(1−1/n2)i−1]+(1−1/n2)i−1a for i≥ji\ge ji≥j.
  3. For every strategy on the §5 instance,
E(VσT)≤1+a22+O(1n).\mathbb E(V_{\sigma_T})\le 1+\frac{a^2}{2}+O\Big(\frac1n\Big).E(VσT​​)≤1+2a2​+O(n1​).

At a=3−1a=\sqrt3-1a=3​−1 the ratio of milestones 4 and 1 tends to (1+a2/2)/(1+a)=3−1(1+a^2/2)/(1+a)=\sqrt3-1(1+a2/2)/(1+a)=3​−1.

Significance

The bound shows that random order with non-identical distributions is strictly harder for the gambler than i.i.d. values: the constant cannot exceed 3−1≈0.732\sqrt3-1\approx0.7323​−1≈0.732, which is below 0.7450.7450.745. It improves the 11/1511/1511/15 bound of Azar, Chiplunkar and Kaplan and extends it from deterministic distribution-insensitive algorithms to all strategies, including randomized ones that know the distributions. With the 0.6690.6690.669 guarantee of the same paper, it brackets the optimal prophet secretary constant in [0.669,0.732][0.669, 0.732][0.669,0.732]. Later work raised the lower end, but the exact value is still open.

The result is proved in the paper. It is not formalized anywhere we know of, and no prophet secretary statement exists on the platform. Formalizing it means writing down a general model of randomized stopping strategies in random order, which other random-order results can reuse. The heart of the proof is a dynamic-programming argument that is easy to state informally and has never been machine-checked. The finite-nnn bound of milestone 4, with an explicit constant in place of O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n), is also a welcome contribution.

Difficulty

Computing the value of one good strategy on the §5 instance is routine (milestone 3). The goal, though, quantifies over every strategy, including randomized ones that observe identities and the whole history. The paper's sentence "Solving the dynamic programming, the algorithm picks the value aaa if and only if it appears at time jjj or later" carries the whole reduction. It requires:

  • showing that accepting a value nnn is always optimal;
  • showing that accepting a 000 never helps;
  • showing that randomization does not help;
  • showing that the only relevant state is the time and whether Vn+1V_{n+1}Vn+1​ has already passed.

Bounding a few natural strategies does not suffice. The asymptotic analysis must also be made uniform in the strategy, so that a single constant CCC in O(1/n)O(1/n)O(1/n) works for all of them.

Formalization scope

  • Indices are 0-based. The paper's ViV_iVi​ is coordinate i−1i-1i−1 of Fin (n+1), and Vn+1V_{n+1}Vn+1​ is Fin.last n.
  • Independence is built in through the product measure Measure.pi μ.
  • The uniform order is the average over all N!N!N! permutations.
  • The seed is uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1] (volume.restrict (Icc 0 1)).
  • Expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] of ENNReal.ofReal of the reward, so no integrability hypotheses appear.
  • A conditional expectation given σi=n+1\sigma_i=n+1σi​=n+1 is written in joint form, as (n+1)(n+1)(n+1) times the expectation on that event.
  • The strategy class (Strategy N) is the class of all measurable decision rules on the full observed history plus an independent seed, and it is quantified after the instance. Restricting it to threshold rules, time-jjj rules or deterministic rules would make the goal a different, weaker theorem; that restriction is ruled out. The class is nonempty, and its measurability requirement is satisfiable: jRule carries its proof.
  • The instance is not required to have continuous laws. The paper assumes continuity only for its blind strategies, and the §5 instance has atoms.
  • The goal adds 0<E(max⁡)<∞0<\mathbb E(\max)<\infty0<E(max)<∞, which the §5 instance satisfies; this excludes a degenerate instance.
  • §5 writes max⁡i∈[n]\max_{i\in[n]}maxi∈[n]​, but the maximum is over all n+1n+1n+1 variables, since the formula contains aaa. The Lean states the corrected reading.
  • The PDF used is arXiv:1807.07483v2. Pages are PDF pages, because the preprint prints no page numbers.

Reusable infrastructure includes the random-order stopping model, the reward of the first stop, and the dynamic-programming reduction for a single deterministic variable. Contributions are welcome on any milestone, and on an explicit CCC in milestone 4.

Selected references

  • J. Correa, R. Saona, B. Ziliotto, Prophet Secretary Through Blind Strategies, arXiv:1807.07483v2, 2019; Mathematical Programming, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.07483
  • S. Esfandiari, M. HajiAghayi, V. Liaghat, M. Monemizadeh, Prophet Secretary, ESA 2015; SIAM J. Discrete Math. 31(3), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1137/15M1029394
  • S. Ehsani, M. Hajiaghayi, T. Kesselheim, S. Singla, Prophet Secretary for Combinatorial Auctions and Matroids, SODA 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.11213
  • Y. Azar, A. Chiplunkar, H. Kaplan, Prophet Secretary: Surpassing the 1 − 1/e Barrier, EC 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.01834
  • T. P. Hill, R. P. Kertz, Comparisons of stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables, Annals of Probability 10(2), 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993772
  • J. Correa, P. Foncea, R. Hoeksma, T. Oosterwijk, T. Vredeveld, Posted Price Mechanisms for a Random Stream of Customers, EC 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3033274.3085137
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Control TheoryMarkov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong and Weak Equilibria for Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Control in Continuous Time 1: Weak and Strong Equilibria Exist When the Admissible Generator Rows Form Convex Compact SetsResearch Paper

Motivation

An agent whose preferences change over time cannot simply optimize. Under non-exponential discounting, for instance hyperbolic or pseudo-exponential discount functions, a plan that is optimal today stops being optimal tomorrow, and a later self deviates from it. Strotz (1955) proposed that a sophisticated agent treat future selves as players in a game and look for a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy instead. In discrete time this notion is unambiguous. In continuous time, Ekeland and Lazrak (2006) gave the first rigorous definition, through a first-order (derivative-type) condition, and nearly all later work on time-inconsistent stochastic control in continuous time uses it.

Huang and Zhou (2021) point out that this standard notion, here called a weak equilibrium, can admit strategies that the agent strictly wants to abandon over arbitrarily short intervals. They introduce a strong equilibrium, which rules out every profitable short deviation. For a controlled finite-state Markov chain they characterize both notions and prove that both exist under compactness. This mission formalizes that existence theorem together with the expansions and characterizations it rests on.

Setting

Let S={1,…,N}S=\{1,\dots,N\}S={1,…,N}. A continuous-time Markov chain XXX on SSS is controlled through its generator Q∈RN×NQ\in\mathbb R^{N\times N}Q∈RN×N, with iii-th row QiQ_iQi​. A row must lie in

Ei={q∈RN:qj≥0 (j≠i), qi=−∑j≠iqj},E_i=\Big\{q\in\mathbb R^N: q_j\ge0\ (j\ne i),\ q_i=-\sum_{j\ne i}q_j\Big\},Ei​={q∈RN:qj​≥0 (j=i), qi​=−j=i∑​qj​},

and an admissible set Di⊆EiD_i\subseteq E_iDi​⊆Ei​ is fixed for each state. The control space is Q={Q:Qi∈Di ∀i}\mathcal Q=\{Q: Q_i\in D_i\ \forall i\}Q={Q:Qi​∈Di​ ∀i}.

A payoff rate f(t,i,q)f(t,i,q)f(t,i,q) is paid at time difference t≥0t\ge0t≥0 when the chain is in state iii and uses row qqq. The standing assumptions are that t↦f(t,i,q)t\mapsto f(t,i,q)t↦f(t,i,q) is continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and that, for every c>0c>0c>0, sup⁡i, q∈Di, ∥q∥≤c∣f(t,i,q)∣\sup_{i,\,q\in D_i,\,\|q\|\le c}|f(t,i,q)|supi,q∈Di​,∥q∥≤c​∣f(t,i,q)∣ is integrable in ttt. The expected payoff is

F(i,Q)=Ei,Q[∫0∞f(t,Xt,QXt) dt],F(Q)=(F(1,Q),…,F(N,Q)).F(i,Q)=\mathbb E_{i,Q}\Big[\int_0^\infty f(t,X_t,Q_{X_t})\,dt\Big],\qquad F(Q)=(F(1,Q),\dots,F(N,Q)).F(i,Q)=Ei,Q​[∫0∞​f(t,Xt​,QXt​​)dt],F(Q)=(F(1,Q),…,F(N,Q)).

For ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, the concatenation Q⊗εQ∗Q\otimes_\varepsilon Q^*Q⊗ε​Q∗ follows QQQ on [0,ε][0,\varepsilon][0,ε] and Q∗Q^*Q∗ afterwards.

  • Q∗∈QQ^*\in\mathcal QQ∗∈Q is a weak equilibrium if lim inf⁡ε↓0(F(i,Q∗)−F(i,Q⊗εQ∗))/ε≥0\liminf_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\big(F(i,Q^*)-F(i,Q\otimes_\varepsilon Q^*)\big)/\varepsilon\ge0liminfε↓0​(F(i,Q∗)−F(i,Q⊗ε​Q∗))/ε≥0 for all Q∈QQ\in\mathcal QQ∈Q and i∈Si\in Si∈S.
  • Q∗∈QQ^*\in\mathcal QQ∗∈Q is a strong equilibrium if for all iii and QQQ there is ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with F(i,Q∗)≥F(i,Q⊗ε′Q∗)F(i,Q^*)\ge F(i,Q\otimes_{\varepsilon'}Q^*)F(i,Q∗)≥F(i,Q⊗ε′​Q∗) for every 0<ε′≤ε0<\varepsilon'\le\varepsilon0<ε′≤ε.

The first-order gain of a row qqq in state iii is ΓQ∗(q)=f(0,i,q)+q⋅F(Q∗)\Gamma^{Q^*}(q)=f(0,i,q)+q\cdot F(Q^*)ΓQ∗(q)=f(0,i,q)+q⋅F(Q∗).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 10)

Suppose every DiD_iDi​ is nonempty, convex and compact, q↦f(t,i,q)q\mapsto f(t,i,q)q↦f(t,i,q) is continuous on DiD_iDi​, and f(0,i,⋅)f(0,i,\cdot)f(0,i,⋅) is concave. Then

∃ Q∗∈Q weak equilibrium.\exists\,Q^*\in\mathcal Q\ \text{weak equilibrium}.∃Q∗∈Q weak equilibrium.

If moreover f(0,i,⋅)f(0,i,\cdot)f(0,i,⋅) is strictly concave and fff satisfies the C1C^1C1 and remainder conditions of Lemma 3.2, then

∃ Q∗∈Q strong equilibrium.\exists\,Q^*\in\mathcal Q\ \text{strong equilibrium}.∃Q∗∈Q strong equilibrium.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 6): the first-order expansions (3.2) and, under the shift bound (3.3)–(3.5),
F(i,Q∗)−F(i,Q⊗εQ∗)=(ΓQ∗(Qi∗)−ΓQ∗(Qi))ε+o(ε).F(i,Q^*)-F(i,Q\otimes_\varepsilon Q^*)=\big(\Gamma^{Q^*}(Q^*_i)-\Gamma^{Q^*}(Q_i)\big)\varepsilon+o(\varepsilon).F(i,Q∗)−F(i,Q⊗ε​Q∗)=(ΓQ∗(Qi∗​)−ΓQ∗(Qi​))ε+o(ε).
  1. Theorem 3.1 (p. 7): Q∗Q^*Q∗ is a weak equilibrium iff ΓQ∗(Qi∗)≥ΓQ∗(Qi)\Gamma^{Q^*}(Q^*_i)\ge\Gamma^{Q^*}(Q_i)ΓQ∗(Qi∗​)≥ΓQ∗(Qi​) for all (i,Q)(i,Q)(i,Q).
  2. Continuity of Q↦F(Q)Q\mapsto F(Q)Q↦F(Q) on Q\mathcal QQ (proof of Theorem 3.3, p. 26).
  3. The best-response map Φ(Q)={R∈Q:Ri∈arg⁡max⁡q∈Di[f(0,i,q)+F(Q)⋅q]}\Phi(Q)=\{R\in\mathcal Q: R_i\in\arg\max_{q\in D_i}[f(0,i,q)+F(Q)\cdot q]\}Φ(Q)={R∈Q:Ri​∈argmaxq∈Di​​[f(0,i,q)+F(Q)⋅q]} has nonempty closed convex values and is upper semicontinuous (p. 26).
  4. Kakutani's fixed-point theorem, already proved on the platform, as used on p. 26.
  5. Lemma 3.2 (p. 8): the second-order expansion (3.16) with coefficient ΛQ∗\Lambda^{Q^*}ΛQ∗ (3.17).
  6. Proposition 3.2 (p. 9): strict inequality in the gain whenever Qi≠Qi∗Q_i\ne Q^*_iQi​=Qi∗​ implies a strong equilibrium.
  7. Remark 2.3 (p. 5): every strong equilibrium is weak.

Significance

Theorem 3.3 is the general existence result of the paper. Theorem 3.1 and Proposition 3.2 give a way to find equilibria in a given model, but they do not say whether one exists. Remark 3.4 shows that without compactness of the DiD_iDi​, no equilibrium need exist. The strong half shows that the stricter concept is not empty in general: under strict concavity a strong equilibrium exists. Example 4.3 of the paper shows that weak equilibria need not be strong, so the two halves are different results.

The paper gives a proof, and none of it has been formalized. A formalization produces a checked equilibrium-existence theorem for a controlled continuous-time Markov chain. It also produces reusable small-time expansions of matrix-exponential payoffs. These expansions are shared by the paper's other results: the two-state example and the convergence of discrete-time equilibria.

Difficulty

The fixed-point step itself is routine once its hypotheses are in place. The work lies in the analysis that feeds it. First, the continuity of Q↦F(Q)Q\mapsto F(Q)Q↦F(Q) needs a limit passage under an infinite-horizon integral, which requires a uniform integrable bound on fff along a converging sequence of generators. Second, the step from a fixed point to a weak equilibrium goes through Theorem 3.1, whose hypothesis (3.3) is not among those of Theorem 3.3. Showing that Fε(i,Q)→F(i,Q)F_\varepsilon(i,Q)\to F(i,Q)Fε​(i,Q)→F(i,Q) without (3.3) is not one of the paper's numbered statements. Third, the strong half needs Proposition 3.2. Its proof treats deviations that agree with Q∗Q^*Q∗ in the current state, which are felt only at second or higher order in ε\varepsilonε, through the first order at which the chain can reach a state where the deviation differs. The obvious argument, comparing first-order terms only, says nothing in that case.

Formalization scope

States are Fin N, so state kkk of the paper is index k−1k-1k−1. Rows are Fin N → ℝ and generators are Matrix (Fin N) (Fin N) ℝ with the entrywise topology. Expectations are not built from a Markov process. Under QQQ the law of XtX_tXt​ given X0=iX_0=iX0​=i is the iii-th row of etQe^{tQ}etQ, so F(i,Q)=∫0∞∑j(etQ)ijf(t,j,Qj) dtF(i,Q)=\int_0^\infty\sum_j(e^{tQ})_{ij}f(t,j,Q_j)\,dtF(i,Q)=∫0∞​∑j​(etQ)ij​f(t,j,Qj​)dt. Under Q⊗εQ′Q\otimes_\varepsilon Q'Q⊗ε​Q′ the transition matrix is etQe^{tQ}etQ for t≤εt\le\varepsilont≤ε and eεQe(t−ε)Q′e^{\varepsilon Q}e^{(t-\varepsilon)Q'}eεQe(t−ε)Q′ afterwards. Integrals are Bochner integrals over (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞). The norm in (2.3) is the sup norm, which is equivalent because (2.3) quantifies over every c>0c>0c>0. The liminf in the weak-equilibrium definition is encoded as "for every η>0\eta>0η>0, eventually ≥−η\ge-\eta≥−η". "Increasing" in (3.4) and (3.15) means nondecreasing.

Two hypotheses are added to the printed Theorem 3.3:

  • Di≠∅D_i\neq\emptysetDi​=∅. Otherwise Q\mathcal QQ is empty.
  • Continuity of q↦f(t,i,q)q\mapsto f(t,i,q)q↦f(t,i,q) on DiD_iDi​. The proof uses it, and the printed statement is false without it: a payoff whose sign jumps in qqq admits no weak equilibrium.

The shift bound (3.3) is deliberately not assumed in the weak half. No statement assumes integrability of a payoff; it follows from (2.3) because etQe^{tQ}etQ is a stochastic matrix. The time derivative ftf_tft​ in Lemma 3.2 is tied to fff by a derivative condition, and Λ\LambdaΛ is meaningless otherwise. These choices rule out formalizations that are trivially true because an integral is junk or an admissible set is empty. Every hypothesis on fff ranges over q∈Diq\in D_iq∈Di​ only.

A complete development needs:

  • dominated convergence for integrals over (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞);
  • small-time expansions of eεQe^{\varepsilon Q}eεQ;
  • the fact that etQe^{tQ}etQ is stochastic for a generator;
  • the identification of RN×N\mathbb R^{N\times N}RN×N with a Euclidean space, to apply the referenced Kakutani theorem.

The matrix-exponential facts about generators are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, and so are lemmas on generators and etQe^{tQ}etQ.

Selected references

  • Y.-J. Huang and Z. Zhou, Strong and Weak Equilibria for Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Control in Continuous Time, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(2), 2021; read as arXiv:1809.09243v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1809.09243 , https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2020.1066
  • I. Ekeland and A. Lazrak, Being serious about non-commitment: subgame perfect equilibrium in continuous time, technical report, University of British Columbia, 2006. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0604264
  • R. H. Strotz, Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization, Review of Economic Studies 23(3), 1955. https://doi.org/10.2307/2295722
  • K. Fan, Fixed-point and minimax theorems in locally convex topological linear spaces, PNAS 38(2), 1952. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.38.2.121
  • S. Kakutani, A generalization of Brouwer's fixed point theorem, Duke Mathematical Journal 8(3), 1941. https://doi.org/10.1215/S0012-7094-41-00838-4
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Convex OptimizationDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Learning in Games via Reinforcement and Regularization 2: Under Regularized Reinforcement Learning, Every Strict Nash Equilibrium Is Asymptotically StableResearch Paper

Motivation

In a repeated game, players who do not know the payoff structure can still learn by reinforcement: each player keeps a running score for every action, the cumulative payoff that action would have earned, and plays a mixed strategy that favours actions with high scores. Turning scores into mixed strategies through a regularized best response (maximize score minus a convex penalty) gives a family of dynamics that includes exponential weights and the replicator dynamics (entropic penalty), and also the projection dynamics (quadratic penalty). The same scheme is the continuous-time counterpart of online mirror descent and dual averaging in online optimization.

For the replicator dynamics, the standard folk results of evolutionary game theory say that Nash equilibria are stationary, that limits of interior orbits are Nash equilibria, that Lyapunov stable states are Nash equilibria, and that strict equilibria are asymptotically stable (Weibull 1995; Hofbauer–Sigmund 1998). Mertikopoulos and Sandholm (arXiv:1407.6267v2, Math. Oper. Res. 41(4), 2016) show that all four results survive for the whole family. For steep, decomposable penalties several of them were known (Coucheney–Gaujal–Mertikopoulos 2015). The new part is the nonsteep case, where mixed strategies can hit the boundary of the simplex and the induced dynamics on strategies are no longer well defined.

Setting

A finite game G\mathcal GG has a finite set N\mathcal NN of players. Player kkk has a finite nonempty set Ak\mathcal A_kAk​ of pure strategies and a payoff function uk:∏ℓAℓ→Ru_k:\prod_\ell\mathcal A_\ell\to\mathbb Ruk​:∏ℓ​Aℓ​→R. A mixed profile is x=(xk)k∈X=∏kΔ(Ak)x=(x_k)_k\in\mathcal X=\prod_k\Delta(\mathcal A_k)x=(xk​)k​∈X=∏k​Δ(Ak​), and uk(x)u_k(x)uk​(x) is player kkk's expected payoff when the players randomize independently. The payoff vector is vkα(x)=uk(α;x−k)v_{k\alpha}(x)=u_k(\alpha;x_{-k})vkα​(x)=uk​(α;x−k​), the payoff of pure strategy α\alphaα against x−kx_{-k}x−k​.

A penalty function on a simplex Δ\DeltaΔ (Definition 2.1) is a function h:Δ→Rh:\Delta\to\mathbb Rh:Δ→R that is continuous, smooth on the relative interior of every face, and KKK-strongly convex:

h(tx1+(1−t)x2)≤t h(x1)+(1−t) h(x2)−12Kt(1−t)∥x1−x2∥22.h(tx_1+(1-t)x_2)\le t\,h(x_1)+(1-t)\,h(x_2)-\tfrac12Kt(1-t)\|x_1-x_2\|_2^2 .h(tx1​+(1−t)x2​)≤th(x1​)+(1−t)h(x2​)−21​Kt(1−t)∥x1​−x2​∥22​.

Steepness (gradients blowing up at the boundary) is not required. Its choice map is Q(y)=arg⁡max⁡x∈Δ{⟨y∣x⟩−h(x)}Q(y)=\arg\max_{x\in\Delta}\{\langle y|x\rangle-h(x)\}Q(y)=argmaxx∈Δ​{⟨y∣x⟩−h(x)}. Every player kkk has a penalty function hkh_khk​ with constant KkK_kKk​.

The reinforcement learning dynamics (RL) are

y˙kα=vkα(x),xk=Qk(yk),\dot y_{k\alpha}=v_{k\alpha}(x),\qquad x_k=Q_k(y_k),y˙​kα​=vkα​(x),xk​=Qk​(yk​),

and an orbit is a pair (y(t),x(t))(y(t),x(t))(y(t),x(t)), t≥0t\ge0t≥0, satisfying them. A Nash equilibrium is a profile x∗x^*x∗ with uk(x∗)≥uk(xk;x−k∗)u_k(x^*)\ge u_k(x_k;x^*_{-k})uk​(x∗)≥uk​(xk​;x−k∗​) for every kkk and every mixed xkx_kxk​. It is strict if the inequality is strict for every xk≠xk∗x_k\neq x^*_kxk​=xk∗​.

Because (RL) lives in the space of scores and QQQ is neither injective nor surjective, stability is defined on the trajectories of play (Definition 5.1):

  • x∗x^*x∗ is Lyapunov stable if for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that every orbit with ∥x(0)−x∗∥<δ\|x(0)-x^*\|<\delta∥x(0)−x∗∥<δ stays within ε\varepsilonε of x∗x^*x∗ forever;
  • it is attracting if every orbit started close enough to x∗x^*x∗ converges to x∗x^*x∗;
  • it is asymptotically stable if it is both;
  • it is stationary if x∗∈im⁡Qx^*\in\operatorname{im}Qx∗∈imQ and every orbit with x(0)=x∗x(0)=x^*x(0)=x∗ stays at x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2, Part IV

x∗ strict Nash equilibrium of G ⟹ x∗ asymptotically stable under (RL),x^*\ \text{strict Nash equilibrium of }\mathcal G\ \Longrightarrow\ x^*\ \text{asymptotically stable under (RL)},x∗ strict Nash equilibrium of G ⟹ x∗ asymptotically stable under (RL),

for every finite game and every choice of penalty functions hkh_khk​, steep or not.

Milestones (the steps of the proof, pp. 23–24, and the Appendix results it uses)

  • A strict equilibrium is a pure profile x∗=(α1∗,…,αN∗)x^*=(\alpha^*_1,\dots,\alpha^*_N)x∗=(α1∗​,…,αN∗​), and δk=min⁡μ≠αk∗{vkαk∗(x∗)−vkμ(x∗)}>0\delta_k=\min_{\mu\neq\alpha^*_k}\{v_{k\alpha^*_k}(x^*)-v_{k\mu}(x^*)\}>0δk​=minμ=αk∗​​{vkαk∗​​(x∗)−vkμ​(x∗)}>0.
  • Proposition A.1(iii): Qα(y)→0Q_\alpha(y)\to0Qα​(y)→0 whenever yα−yβ→−∞y_\alpha-y_\beta\to-\inftyyα​−yβ​→−∞.
  • Proposition C.3: the Fenchel coupling Fh(p,y)=h(p)+h∗(y)−⟨y∣p⟩F_h(p,y)=h(p)+h^*(y)-\langle y|p\rangleFh​(p,y)=h(p)+h∗(y)−⟨y∣p⟩ satisfies Fh(p,y)≥12K∥Q(y)−p∥2F_h(p,y)\ge\tfrac12K\|Q(y)-p\|^2Fh​(p,y)≥21​K∥Q(y)−p∥2.
  • Proposition C.2(i)–(iii): the Bregman divergence Dh(p,x)=h(p)−h(x)−h′(x;p−x)D_h(p,x)=h(p)-h(x)-h'(x;p-x)Dh​(p,x)=h(p)−h(x)−h′(x;p−x), built from the one-sided derivative, is finite, nonnegative with (C.6), and continuous on Δp={x:supp⁡x⊇supp⁡p}\Delta_p=\{x:\operatorname{supp}x\supseteq\operatorname{supp}p\}Δp​={x:suppx⊇suppp}.
  • (C.11): Fh(p,y)=Dh(p,Q(y))F_h(p,y)=D_h(p,Q(y))Fh​(p,y)=Dh​(p,Q(y)) whenever Q(y)∈ΔpQ(y)\in\Delta_pQ(y)∈Δp​.
  • The monotonicity step: h∗(y)−yα∗=max⁡x{∑μ≠α∗xμzμ−h(x)}h^*(y)-y_{\alpha^*}=\max_{x}\{\sum_{\mu\ne\alpha^*}x_\mu z_\mu-h(x)\}h∗(y)−yα∗​=maxx​{∑μ=α∗​xμ​zμ​−h(x)} is nondecreasing in the relative scores zμ=yμ−yα∗z_\mu=y_\mu-y_{\alpha^*}zμ​=yμ​−yα∗​.

Companions

Theorem 5.2, Parts I–III (stationary   ⟺  \iff⟺ Nash and in im⁡Q\operatorname{im}QimQ; limits of orbits and Lyapunov stable states are Nash), Proposition 5.3, Proposition 3.1 (global existence and uniqueness of orbits) and Proposition A.1(i)–(ii).

Significance

Theorem 5.2 says that, as far as the qualitative long-run behaviour is concerned, the whole class of regularized reinforcement dynamics behaves like the replicator dynamics. Part IV is the positive half: strict equilibria are robust attractors of learning. This is used to justify equilibrium selection by learning, and Proposition 5.4 (not part of this mission) builds the rates of convergence, including convergence in finite time for nonsteep penalties, on top of it.

The result is proved in the paper; none of it is formalized. A Lean development would provide a reusable layer of game-theoretic learning dynamics: penalty functions without steepness, choice maps as regularized argmax, the Fenchel coupling and the one-sided Bregman divergence on the simplex. Two companion missions on the same paper use the same layer, for the extinction of dominated strategies and for time averages in zero-sum games. As far as is known, the stability theory of Section 5 has no machine-checked proof even for the replicator dynamics.

Difficulty

The obvious argument would be a Lyapunov argument for the induced dynamics on X\mathcal XX, as for the replicator equation. For nonsteep penalties these dynamics are not well defined: orbits reach the boundary and QQQ is not invertible there. The proof works in the dual space instead, where the natural Lyapunov candidate is the Fenchel coupling Fh(x∗,y)F_h(x^*,y)Fh​(x∗,y). The coupling is not differentiable along the orbit in the usual sense, and its sublevel sets in score space must be related to genuine neighbourhoods of x∗x^*x∗ in X\mathcal XX. That needs the Bregman divergence with one-sided derivatives at boundary points and its continuity across faces of different dimension (Proposition C.2(iii)). A second obstacle is that the coupling does not strictly decrease when the maximizer sits at the vertex. The page states a strict inequality there, which fails for nonsteep penalties, so the argument has to be run with the weak inequality and a first-exit-time argument.

Formalization scope

  • The game uses the published agt_games vocabulary: AGT.IsLottery, AGT.IsMixedProfile, AGT.expectedPayoff, and AGT.IsMixedNash for (5.1). Players form a Fintype ι, and actions are A k with Fintype and DecidableEq.
  • Penalty functions are IsPenalty h K, Definition 2.1 with the Euclidean norm in (2.5) and C∞C^\inftyC∞ smoothness along curves inside the relative interiors of faces. There is no steepness.
  • The choice map is the predicate IsChoice h y x, never a chosen argmax.
  • Orbits are IsRLOrbit u h y x, the differential form (3.1) with one-sided derivatives at t=0t=0t=0. Statements quantify over orbits and never construct one.
  • Neighbourhoods of x∗x^*x∗ in X\mathcal XX are balls of the sup metric on ∏kRAk\prod_k\mathbb R^{\mathcal A_k}∏k​RAk​, and Definition 5.1 is stated in ε\varepsilonε–δ\deltaδ form.
  • Strict equilibria are not assumed pure; purity is a milestone.
  • The one-sided derivative (C.3) is a limit predicate with a real value, so the Bregman divergence's value +∞+\infty+∞ is never represented by a junk number.
  • Proposition 3.1 adds that every Ak\mathcal A_kAk​ is nonempty. This is implicit in "finite game", and without it no orbit exists.
  • The monotonicity step is stated with ≤\le≤, not the printed <<<.

Trivializing encodings are excluded. Q is not a chosen maximizer that could be chosen badly. Orbit hypotheses are not vacuous: a verification file exhibits an orbit and a strict equilibrium together with a penalty function. Steepness is not added to the hypotheses. The conclusion is genuine convergence x(t)→x∗x(t)\to x^*x(t)→x∗ together with Lyapunov stability, not a lim inf⁡\liminfliminf or a stability-only statement. Proofs of any milestone are welcome. The conjugate and Bregman layer (Appendix C), the regularized-argmax lemmas (Appendix A) and the well-posedness of (RL) (Proposition 3.1) are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • P. Mertikopoulos and W. H. Sandholm, Learning in games via reinforcement and regularization, Math. Oper. Res. 41(4), 2016. Cited as arXiv:1407.6267v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.6267v2
  • P. Coucheney, B. Gaujal and P. Mertikopoulos, Penalty-regulated dynamics and robust learning procedures in games, Math. Oper. Res. 40(3), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2014.0687
  • J. W. Weibull, Evolutionary Game Theory, MIT Press, 1995. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262731218/
  • J. Hofbauer and K. Sigmund, Evolutionary Games and Population Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139173179
  • K. C. Kiwiel, Free-steering relaxation methods for problems with strictly convex costs and linear constraints, Math. Oper. Res. 22(2), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.22.2.326
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Machine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy II: Outcome Sequences with Vanishing Average Regret Have Average Cost at Most the Robust Price of Anarchy Times OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

In a game, each participant chooses a strategy while the cost of that choice depends on what everyone else does. A network user may choose a route, for example, but its travel time depends on the routes chosen by other users. The price of anarchy compares the cost of self-interested outcomes with the best joint outcome. A guarantee restricted to a Nash equilibrium leaves open what happens when players repeatedly adapt their choices without settling on any equilibrium. Roughgarden's extension theorem addresses sequences produced by players whose accumulated costs are asymptotically competitive with fixed alternatives. Its bound depends on a property of the game, rather than on a particular learning algorithm or on convergence of play. Roughgarden, §§1 and 3.2.

Setting

There is a finite set of players iii, and player iii has a strategy set SiS_iSi​. These sets may be infinite. An outcome sss specifies one strategy si∈Sis_i\in S_isi​∈Si​ for every player. The real number Ci(s)C_i(s)Ci​(s) is player iii's cost, and the joint cost is C(s)=∑iCi(s)C(s)=\sum_i C_i(s)C(s)=∑i​Ci​(s). The paper treats this objective as nonnegative. If player iii alone changes to the strategy si′s'_isi′​ of another outcome s′s's′, its cost is written Ci(si′,s−i)C_i(s'_i,s_{-i})Ci​(si′​,s−i​); every other player's strategy stays as in sss. Roughgarden, §2.1.

A game is (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ)-smooth if every pair s,s′s,s's,s′ satisfies ∑iCi(si′,s−i)≤λC(s′)+μC(s)\sum_i C_i(s'_i,s_{-i})\leq\lambda C(s')+\mu C(s)∑i​Ci​(si′​,s−i​)≤λC(s′)+μC(s). The robust price of anarchy ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G) is the infimum of λ/(1−μ)\lambda/(1-\mu)λ/(1−μ) over all such smoothness pairs with μ<1\mu<1μ<1. This number packages every bound obtainable from the same smoothness condition. It is taken in the extended reals, with value +∞+\infty+∞ when no pair exists; the mission assumes an admissible pair exists, so it is below +∞+\infty+∞. Roughgarden, Definitions 2.1–2.2.

For a played outcome sts^tst at time ttt and a comparison outcome s′s's′, define the hypothetical improvement δi(st;s′)=Ci(st)−Ci(si′,s−it)\delta_i(s^t;s')=C_i(s^t)-C_i(s'_i,s^t_{-i})δi​(st;s′)=Ci​(st)−Ci​(si′​,s−it​). A player has vanishing average external regret when its average cost, up to an error tending to zero, is no greater than the average cost it would have paid by using any one fixed strategy throughout the first TTT rounds. The comparison strategy is held fixed across time, while the other players' strategies may change on every round. Each player may have its own error function. Roughgarden, (22), (24).

Formalization targets

Additive bound

The paragraph following equation (25) asserts a bound with a vanishing additive error. For any comparison outcome s′s's′ and every horizon T≥1T\geq1T≥1, there is a function η(T)→0\eta(T)\to0η(T)→0 with

1T∑t=1TC(st)≤ρ(G)C(s′)+η(T).\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^{T}C(s^t)\leq\rho(G)C(s')+\eta(T).T1​t=1∑T​C(st)≤ρ(G)C(s′)+η(T).

This target includes the case C(s′)=0C(s')=0C(s′)=0. The paper states the conclusion for an optimal outcome; the same displayed relations also apply to any comparison outcome. Relations (23) and (25) are separate milestones: the former bounds one outcome using the players' hypothetical improvements, and the latter averages that bound over time. Roughgarden, §3.2, pp. 13–14.

Multiplicative repeated-play bound

The mission goal is Theorem 3.3's multiplicative presentation. For a comparison outcome with C(s′)>0C(s')>0C(s′)>0, there is a function η(T)→0\eta(T)\to0η(T)→0 such that

1T∑t=1TC(st)≤(ρ(G)+η(T))C(s′)(T≥1).\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^{T}C(s^t)\leq\bigl(\rho(G)+\eta(T)\bigr)C(s')\qquad(T\geq1).T1​t=1∑T​C(st)≤(ρ(G)+η(T))C(s′)(T≥1).

The positive-cost condition is needed to make the printed statement true. Consider one player with strategies of costs 111 and 000, playing the costly strategy once and the zero-cost strategy thereafter. Its average regret tends to zero, but its average cost is 1/T>01/T>01/T>0 at every finite horizon. Taking the zero-cost strategy as s′s's′ makes the right-hand side of the printed multiplicative bound zero for any η\etaη. The additive milestone preserves the valid zero-cost case. Roughgarden, Theorem 3.3 and the paragraph preceding it.

Significance

The result transfers a bound defined by the game's smoothness condition to repeated play even when the sequence does not converge. It therefore gives a welfare guarantee for the behavior captured by vanishing external regret without identifying which learning rule generated the sequence. The additive statement also records exactly what remains true when an optimal outcome has zero cost. Roughgarden, §3.2.

Formalizing the result makes the quantifiers behind o(1)o(1)o(1) explicit: for each fixed game, sequence, and comparison outcome, one error sequence works across all positive horizons and tends to zero. The development also distinguishes the paper's valid additive consequence from its multiplicative display at zero cost. The paper proves the result mathematically; the Lean files in this mission are theorem statements for solvers and do not yet contain machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

For a fixed smoothness pair, a finite-time inequality controls average joint cost by the comparison cost and players' average hypothetical improvements. Regret controls those improvements asymptotically, but the robust price of anarchy takes an infimum over all admissible pairs. Passing from bounds for individual pairs to that infimum requires the sign and boundedness conditions on the joint cost to be tracked correctly. A direct replacement of the fixed pair's ratio by ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G) does not itself justify the limit. The zero-cost example also shows why an additive error cannot simply be displayed as a multiplicative o(1)o(1)o(1) term in every case. Roughgarden, (23)–(25) and Theorem 3.3.

Formalization scope

Lean uses a finite type of players, arbitrary strategy types, and real-valued player costs. It defines the joint objective by the finite sum ∑iCi(s)\sum_i C_i(s)∑i​Ci​(s); it does not assume that each individual cost is nonnegative. The goal and additive milestone assume that the joint objective is nonnegative at every outcome, matching the paper's standing convention. They also assume at least one smoothness pair with μ<1\mu<1μ<1, the case in which ρ(G)=+∞\rho(G)=+\inftyρ(G)=+∞ and the page's bound is vacuous. ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G) is an extended-real infimum and the inequalities are compared in the extended reals. For a nonnegative game with an admissible pair, ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G) is a real number at least 1 when some outcome has positive cost; if all outcomes cost zero, the target cost bounds are zero. Roughgarden, §§1, 2.1, 3.2.

Time indices are 1,…,T1,\ldots,T1,…,T, with T≥1T\geq1T≥1. The Lean sequence is infinite so that the asymptotic assertion concerns prefixes of one sequence; its value at index zero is unused. The regret definition quantifies over every fixed alternative strategy rather than assuming a minimum is attained when a strategy set is infinite. A separate vanishing error sequence may be chosen for each player. The conclusion chooses one vanishing error sequence after the game, play sequence, and comparison outcome, and uses it at every horizon. These choices make the o(1)o(1)o(1) terms genuine limits, rather than unconstrained values chosen separately for each TTT. Roughgarden, (24), Theorem 3.3.

The game objective, smoothness predicate, robust price of anarchy, deviation improvement, and regret predicate are the reusable definitions. Solvers can contribute proofs of the one-step bound, its averaged form, the additive conclusion, and the main theorem. Mixed-outcome sequences from Remark 3.4 are outside this mission's core; their probability and integrability conventions would require another definition layer.

Selected references

  • Tim Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, Journal of the ACM 62(5), Article 32, 2015. DOI: 10.1145/2806883. Statements and page numbers follow the author's final version dated July 14, 2015.
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy I: Every Coarse Correlated Equilibrium of a Smooth Game Has Expected Cost at Most the Robust Price of Anarchy Times OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

The price of anarchy (POA) of a game measures how much selfish behaviour costs: it is the ratio between the largest cost of an equilibrium and the cost of an optimal outcome, for a nonnegative objective such as the sum of the players' costs. Since Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou (1999) and Roughgarden and Tardos (2002), POA bounds have been proved for routing, scheduling, facility location, auctions and many other models, mostly for pure Nash equilibria.

Pure Nash equilibria need not exist, are hard to compute in general, and are not what players running learning algorithms converge to. A bound that holds only at pure Nash equilibria therefore says little about realized play. Roughgarden's paper (J. ACM 62(5), 2015; conference version STOC 2009) observes that most known POA proofs follow one template, the smoothness argument, and proves that any bound obtained this way extends automatically to much broader equilibrium concepts. This mission formalizes the static half of that result: the extension to coarse correlated equilibria (Theorem 3.2) and to their approximate versions (Theorem 4.1).

Timeline:

  • 1999: Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou introduce the worst-case ratio of equilibria to optimum.
  • 2005: Awerbuch–Azar–Epstein and Christodoulou–Koutsoupias prove the bound 5/2 for linear congestion games; their arguments are smoothness arguments in hindsight.
  • 2009: Roughgarden (STOC) isolates smoothness and proves the extension theorems; the journal version (2015) adds the tightness results for congestion games.
  • 2009–2015: smoothness is adapted to auctions (Syrgkanis–Tardos 2013) and to local and approximate variants.

Setting

A cost-minimization game has finitely many players iii. Player iii chooses a strategy sis_isi​ from an arbitrary set SiS_iSi​; an outcome is a vector s=(si)is = (s_i)_is=(si​)i​, and player iii pays a real cost Ci(s)C_i(s)Ci​(s). Write (si′,s−i)(s_i', s_{-i})(si′​,s−i​) for the outcome in which player iii switches to si′s_i'si′​ and the others stay put. The joint cost is C(s)=∑iCi(s)C(s) = \sum_i C_i(s)C(s)=∑i​Ci​(s), assumed nonnegative.

An outcome sss is a pure Nash equilibrium if Ci(s)≤Ci(si′,s−i)C_i(s) \le C_i(s_i', s_{-i})Ci​(s)≤Ci​(si′​,s−i​) for every iii and si′∈Sis_i' \in S_isi′​∈Si​. For ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0 it is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium if Ci(s)≤(1+ϵ)Ci(si′,s−i)C_i(s) \le (1+\epsilon) C_i(s_i', s_{-i})Ci​(s)≤(1+ϵ)Ci​(si′​,s−i​).

A coarse correlated equilibrium is a probability distribution σ\sigmaσ over outcomes with

Es∼σ[Ci(s)]≤Es∼σ[Ci(si′,s−i)]for every i and si′∈Si,\mathbf{E}_{s\sim\sigma}[C_i(s)] \le \mathbf{E}_{s\sim\sigma}[C_i(s_i', s_{-i})] \quad\text{for every } i \text{ and } s_i' \in S_i,Es∼σ​[Ci​(s)]≤Es∼σ​[Ci​(si′​,s−i​)]for every i and si′​∈Si​,

and an ϵ\epsilonϵ-coarse correlated equilibrium satisfies the same with a factor (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ) on the right. Every pure Nash, mixed Nash and correlated equilibrium is a coarse correlated equilibrium, and coarse correlated equilibria are exactly the limits of play in which every player has vanishing external regret.

The game is (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ)-smooth if for every two outcomes s,s∗s, s^*s,s∗

∑iCi(si∗,s−i)≤λ C(s∗)+μ C(s).\sum_i C_i(s_i^*, s_{-i}) \le \lambda\, C(s^*) + \mu\, C(s).i∑​Ci​(si∗​,s−i​)≤λC(s∗)+μC(s).

The robust price of anarchy is ρ(G)=inf⁡{λ/(1−μ):μ<1, G is (λ,μ)-smooth}\rho(G) = \inf\{\lambda/(1-\mu) : \mu < 1,\ G \text{ is } (\lambda,\mu)\text{-smooth}\}ρ(G)=inf{λ/(1−μ):μ<1, G is (λ,μ)-smooth}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (static extension theorem)

For every game GGG with robust POA ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G), every coarse correlated equilibrium σ\sigmaσ and every outcome s∗s^*s∗,

Es∼σ[C(s)]≤ρ(G)⋅C(s∗).\mathbf{E}_{s\sim\sigma}[C(s)] \le \rho(G)\cdot C(s^*).Es∼σ​[C(s)]≤ρ(G)⋅C(s∗).

Milestones

  1. Claim (3)–(5), p. 5: in a (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ)-smooth game with λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, μ<1\mu < 1μ<1, every pure Nash equilibrium sss satisfies C(s)≤λ1−μC(s∗)C(s) \le \frac{\lambda}{1-\mu} C(s^*)C(s)≤1−μλ​C(s∗) for an optimal s∗s^*s∗.
  2. §4.1, p. 16: every ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibrium satisfies C(s)≤(1+ϵ)λ1−μ(1+ϵ)C(s∗)C(s) \le \frac{(1+\epsilon)\lambda}{1-\mu(1+\epsilon)} C(s^*)C(s)≤1−μ(1+ϵ)(1+ϵ)λ​C(s∗) for an optimal s∗s^*s∗.
  3. The chain (16)–(21), p. 13: for one fixed pair (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ) with μ<1\mu < 1μ<1, Es∼σ[C(s)]≤λ1−μC(s∗)\mathbf{E}_{s\sim\sigma}[C(s)] \le \frac{\lambda}{1-\mu} C(s^*)Es∼σ​[C(s)]≤1−μλ​C(s∗) for every coarse correlated equilibrium σ\sigmaσ and every outcome s∗s^*s∗.
  4. Theorem 4.1, p. 16: for every ϵ\epsilonϵ-coarse correlated equilibrium,
Es∼σ[C(s)]≤(1+ϵ)λ1−μ(1+ϵ)⋅C(s∗).\mathbf{E}_{s\sim\sigma}[C(s)] \le \frac{(1+\epsilon)\lambda}{1-\mu(1+\epsilon)}\cdot C(s^*).Es∼σ​[C(s)]≤1−μ(1+ϵ)(1+ϵ)λ​⋅C(s∗).

Significance

Theorem 3.2 says that the robust POA of a game bounds the expected cost of every coarse correlated equilibrium, which contains every other equilibrium concept in the hierarchy. Combined with the companion result for no-regret sequences (Theorem 3.3, mission II of this series), it makes POA bounds meaningful for learning dynamics: whenever players use no-regret algorithms, their average cost is within the robust POA of optimal. For linear congestion games, which are (5/3,1/3)(5/3, 1/3)(5/3,1/3)-smooth, it yields the bound 5/25/25/2 for all coarse correlated equilibria at once. Theorem 4.1 shows that the bounds degrade gracefully when the equilibrium condition holds only approximately, which covers equilibria computed to finite accuracy.

The results are proved in the paper; their proofs are short. No machine-checked version is known to exist. The mission's value is a reusable, platform-wide definition layer for cost-minimization games, smoothness, the robust POA and the equilibrium hierarchy, on which later results can be stated: the bicriteria bounds of §4.2, the tightness theorem for congestion games (mission III), and smoothness bounds for specific models such as auctions, routing and scheduling.

Difficulty

The mathematics is linear: it uses only linearity of expectation and one rearrangement. The difficulty lies in the encoding. The robust POA is an infimum over a set that may be empty (then ρ(G)=+∞\rho(G) = +\inftyρ(G)=+∞ on the page) and need not be attained. Passing from the fixed-pair bound to the infimum uses C(s∗)≥0C(s^*) \ge 0C(s∗)≥0. Theorem 4.1's printed side condition ϵ<1/μ−1\epsilon < 1/\mu - 1ϵ<1/μ−1 is meaningless when μ=0\mu = 0μ=0 and reverses its meaning when μ<0\mu < 0μ<0. Each of these must be handled so that the formal statement is neither false nor vacuous.

Formalization scope

Players form a finite type with decidable equality, and strategy sets are arbitrary types with no finiteness assumed. Outcomes are dependent functions, and the deviation (si′,s−i)(s_i', s_{-i})(si′​,s−i​) is Function.update s i s'ᵢ. Costs are real-valued, and λ,μ\lambda, \muλ,μ are unconstrained reals except μ<1\mu < 1μ<1. Probability distributions are finitely supported weight functions that are nonnegative with total mass 111. Expectations are therefore finite sums with no integrability side conditions. This covers all finite games and all mixed and correlated equilibria of finite games, but not distributions with infinite support.

The robust POA is an extended-real (EReal) infimum over the smoothness pairs with μ<1\mu < 1μ<1, so it is +∞+\infty+∞ when no such pair exists, and the goal compares the expected cost with ρ(G)⋅C(s∗)\rho(G)\cdot C(s^*)ρ(G)⋅C(s∗) in EReal. The goal carries two explicit hypotheses:

  • the joint cost is nonnegative, which is the paper's standing assumption (§1, p. 2; §2.4, p. 10);
  • some smoothness pair with μ<1\mu < 1μ<1 exists, so that ρ(G)<+∞\rho(G) < +\inftyρ(G)<+∞.

Without the second, a game with no smoothness pair and C(s∗)=0C(s^*) = 0C(s∗)=0 would be claimed to have expected cost at most 000 (EReal sets (+∞)⋅0=0(+\infty)\cdot 0 = 0(+∞)⋅0=0), which the page does not assert. A formalization in which the distribution may have total mass 000, or in which ρ(G)\rho(G)ρ(G) is an infimum over all pairs rather than over the smoothness pairs with μ<1\mu < 1μ<1, trivializes or falsifies the goal, and is ruled out by the definitions.

In Theorem 4.1 and the ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash bound:

  • "ϵ<1/μ−1\epsilon < 1/\mu - 1ϵ<1/μ−1" is encoded as μ(1+ϵ)<1\mu(1+\epsilon) < 1μ(1+ϵ)<1, which agrees with it for 0<μ<10 < \mu < 10<μ<1;
  • ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0 is assumed, the implicit domain of an approximation parameter.

The ϵ\epsilonϵ-coarse correlated equilibrium is the extension of (15) that the paper says is "defined in the same way" as ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash equilibria (p. 15). Remark 4.4 writes out the payoff analogue.

Claim (3)–(5) and the ϵ\epsilonϵ-Nash bound keep the paper's hypotheses λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and optimality of s∗s^*s∗, although the inequalities hold without them. Example 4.2 is not posed: its printed bound (5−5ϵ)/(2−ϵ)(5-5\epsilon)/(2-\epsilon)(5−5ϵ)/(2−ϵ) should read (5+5ϵ)/(2−ϵ)(5+5\epsilon)/(2-\epsilon)(5+5ϵ)/(2−ϵ).

Contributions welcome:

  • proofs of the four milestones and of the goal;
  • a measure-theoretic version for distributions with infinite support, with explicit integrability hypotheses;
  • reuse of the definitions in other smoothness results.

Selected references

  • T. Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, J. ACM 62(5), Article 32, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1145/2806883
  • T. Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, Proc. 41st ACM STOC, 513–522, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1536414.1536485
  • E. Koutsoupias, C. Papadimitriou, Worst-Case Equilibria, Proc. STACS, LNCS 1563, 404–413, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-49116-3_38
  • G. Christodoulou, E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 67–73, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060600
  • B. Awerbuch, Y. Azar, A. Epstein, The Price of Routing Unsplittable Flow, Proc. 37th ACM STOC, 57–66, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060599
  • V. Syrgkanis, É. Tardos, Composable and Efficient Mechanisms, Proc. 45th ACM STOC, 211–220, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1145/2488608.2488635
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Modern Introduction to Online Learning XIV: Optimistic FTRL Self-Play on a Smooth Convex-Concave Function Has Duality Gap at Most a Constant over TTextbook

Motivation

A saddle-point problem asks one player to choose a decision that keeps a payoff small while another chooses a decision that makes it large. Such problems include two-player zero-sum games and constrained optimization written through a Lagrangian. Online convex optimization supplies a way to construct approximate saddle points from repeated play: each player responds to losses generated by the other's current decision. Chapter 15 of Orabona's textbook develops this connection and studies the resulting averages. The chapter's earlier online-to-saddle-point result gives a duality-gap certificate from the two players' regrets; §15.5 asks how the certificate improves when the payoff is smooth and both players use predictions of their next gradients.

The minimax equality for continuous convex-concave payoffs on compact convex sets is already a known mathematical result. Theorem 15.11 in the book is a case of Sion's minimax theorem, and a proved Sion theorem already exists in the platform library. This mission centers on the algorithmic rate in Theorem 15.26, which has a separate statement and a different role.

Setting

Let XXX and YYY be nonempty closed convex sets in finite-dimensional real normed spaces, with norms ∥⋅∥X\|\cdot\|_X∥⋅∥X​ and ∥⋅∥Y\|\cdot\|_Y∥⋅∥Y​. The payoff f(x,y)f(x,y)f(x,y) is real-valued, convex as a function of xxx for fixed yyy, and concave as a function of yyy for fixed xxx. The XXX-player tries to minimize it; the YYY-player tries to maximize it. A saddle point would be a pair whose XXX coordinate minimizes the payoff against its YYY coordinate and whose YYY coordinate maximizes it against its XXX coordinate.

The duality gap of a pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), when the extrema are attained, is max⁡v∈Yf(x,v)−min⁡u∈Xf(u,y)\max_{v\in Y}f(x,v)-\min_{u\in X}f(u,y)maxv∈Y​f(x,v)−minu∈X​f(u,y). It is nonnegative and measures how far the pair is from the simultaneous best-response condition. For iterates indexed from 111 through TTT, the book evaluates this gap at the averages xˉT=T−1∑t=1Txt\bar x_T=T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^{T}x_txˉT​=T−1∑t=1T​xt​ and yˉT=T−1∑t=1Tyt\bar y_T=T^{-1}\sum_{t=1}^{T}y_tyˉ​T​=T−1∑t=1T​yt​.

Optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader, or optimistic FTRL, chooses each point by minimizing a regularizer plus all earlier linearized losses and a hint for the next loss. Algorithm 15.6 sets the hint equal to the previous observed partial gradient, starting with zero at round 000. The XXX-player's observed linear functional is gX,t=∇xf(xt,yt)g_{X,t}=\nabla_x f(x_t,y_t)gX,t​=∇x​f(xt​,yt​); the YYY-player's is gY,t=−∇yf(xt,yt)g_{Y,t}=-\nabla_y f(x_t,y_t)gY,t​=−∇y​f(xt​,yt​). Their regularizers ψX\psi_XψX​ and ψY\psi_YψY​ have strong-convexity parameters λX\lambda_XλX​ and λY\lambda_YλY​ with respect to their respective norms. The norm of each partial gradient is the corresponding dual norm.

Smoothness here means that the partial gradients exist on an open neighborhood of X×YX\times YX×Y and satisfy four Lipschitz inequalities. Changes in the XXX coordinate affect the XXX gradient by at most LXXL_{XX}LXX​ times the XXX distance; changes in the YYY coordinate affect it by at most LXYL_{XY}LXY​ times the YYY distance. For the YYY gradient the cross constant is again LXYL_{XY}LXY​, and the own-coordinate constant is LYYL_{YY}LYY​, exactly as in equations (15.7)–(15.10) of the textbook.

Formalization targets

The goal is the exact finite-horizon inequality of Theorem 15.26. Fix α>0\alpha>0α>0 and parameters satisfying λX≥22(LXX+LXYα)\lambda_X\ge2\sqrt2(L_{XX}+L_{XY}\alpha)λX​≥22​(LXX​+LXY​α) and λY≥22(LYY+LXY/α)\lambda_Y\ge2\sqrt2(L_{YY}+L_{XY}/\alpha)λY​≥22​(LYY​+LXY​/α). For any minimizer xT′x'_TxT′​ of f(⋅,yˉT)f(\cdot,\bar y_T)f(⋅,yˉ​T​) and maximizer yT′y'_TyT′​ of f(xˉT,⋅)f(\bar x_T,\cdot)f(xˉT​,⋅), the target is

max⁡v∈Yf(xˉT,v)−min⁡u∈Xf(u,yˉT)≤ψX(xT′)−ψX(x1)+ψY(yT′)−ψY(y1)+∥gX,1∥X,∗2/λX+∥gY,1∥Y,∗2/λYT.\max_{v\in Y}f(\bar x_T,v)-\min_{u\in X}f(u,\bar y_T) \le \frac{\psi_X(x'_T)-\psi_X(x_1)+\psi_Y(y'_T)-\psi_Y(y_1)+\|g_{X,1}\|_{X,*}^{2}/\lambda_X+\|g_{Y,1}\|_{Y,*}^{2}/\lambda_Y}{T}.v∈Ymax​f(xˉT​,v)−u∈Xmin​f(u,yˉ​T​)≤TψX​(xT′​)−ψX​(x1​)+ψY​(yT′​)−ψY​(y1​)+∥gX,1​∥X,∗2​/λX​+∥gY,1​∥Y,∗2​/λY​​.

The milestones are the linear-loss, fixed-regularizer instance of Theorem 7.47 used in the chapter, Theorem 15.12 relating player regrets to the averaged duality gap, and the explicit summed-regret inequality on page 262. Together they specify the algorithmic input, the conversion to a saddle-point certificate, and the exact stability coefficients in the goal.

Significance

The bound certifies the quality of the averaged pair after a specified number of rounds. When the regularizers are bounded on the feasible sets, its numerator is uniformly bounded and the gap is O(1/T)O(1/T)O(1/T), as stated in the paragraph before Theorem 15.26. Without that further boundedness, the displayed inequality remains the theorem's finite-horizon statement, but its numerator can depend on TTT through xT′x'_TxT′​ and yT′y'_TyT′​. The mission name's “constant over TTT” describes the bounded-regularizer setting; the formal goal preserves the more general printed bound.

The book proves the theorem mathematically. The work here is a machine-checked representation of Algorithm 15.6, its smoothness assumptions, the exact parameter thresholds, and the finite-horizon inequality. The run and smoothness definitions can be reused for other optimistic methods in the chapter, including Theorem 15.28. Existing library results about minimax equality address existence and equality of optimal values; they do not supply the quantitative guarantee for this run.

Difficulty

A standard regret bound for each player leaves variation terms involving successive iterates. With two players, each player's gradient variation depends on both players' movement and on different norms. A bound that discards this coupling loses the displayed coefficients and the rate in Theorem 15.26. The formal statement therefore keeps both sequences, both dual norms, and all four smoothness inequalities visible. It also has to treat the first round separately: the previous-gradient hint is zero there, while later rounds compare two observed gradients.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses finite-dimensional real normed spaces; a partial gradient is a continuous linear functional and its operator norm is the book's dual norm. The payoff and regularizers are represented by real-valued functions on the ambient spaces, restricted to XXX and YYY when optimized. Smoothness includes an open set containing the feasible product. Strong convexity uses Mathlib's set-relative StrongConvexOn. The run predicate enforces both argmin updates, and index 000 is used only for the zero hint. It constrains exactly the rounds 1,…,T1,\ldots,T1,…,T. In the optimistic FTRL milestone, the look-ahead point xT+1x_{T+1}xT+1​ is the minimizer of the regularized loss sum with a zero hint. The book's proof uses the hint of round TTT there instead, which makes that milestone's first inequality false.

The goal assumes T≥1T\ge1T≥1, positive α,λX,λY\alpha,\lambda_X,\lambda_Yα,λX​,λY​, and nonnegative smoothness constants. These record the book's parameter conventions and keep every denominator meaningful. The extrema in the conclusion are represented by arbitrary attained minimizer and maximizer witnesses, matching the theorem's nonempty-argmin and nonempty-argmax hypotheses. No boundedness or compactness of XXX or YYY is imposed. An arbitrary sequence of feasible points cannot satisfy the goal: the optimistic FTRL argmin updates are part of the run hypothesis. Contributions that establish the two-player regret estimate, the regret-to-gap step, or the final inequality against this run model directly support the mission.

Selected references

  • Francesco Orabona, Online Learning: A Modern Introduction Using Convex Optimization, arXiv:1912.13213v10, 2026, Chapter 15, pp. 244–269; Theorem 7.47, pp. 129–130. arXiv
  • Maurice Sion, On general minimax theorems, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 8 (1958), pp. 171–176. DOI
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy III: For Every Set of Cost Functions, Congestion Games Are Tight — the Worst-Case Pure Price of Anarchy Equals the Best Smoothness BoundResearch Paper

Motivation

In a congestion game, each player chooses resources and pays a cost that depends on how many players use each chosen resource. Such games model shared facilities and network use, where independently chosen strategies can cost more in total than a coordinated choice. The price of anarchy measures this inefficiency by comparing the social cost of an equilibrium with the minimum social cost. A familiar way to bound it is to prove a smoothness inequality that applies to every pair of strategy profiles. That inequality has a useful reach: once established, it bounds not only pure Nash equilibria but also broader equilibrium notions. The question in this mission is how much that reach costs in sharpness. Roughgarden (2015) proves that for congestion games it costs nothing at the level of the worst case over any fixed collection of allowed resource cost functions.

For affine resource costs, earlier analyses had already identified a worst-case value of 5/25/25/2, attained by a finite congestion game and matched by a smoothness bound. The 2015 paper asks whether this agreement reflects affine costs or a general property of congestion games. Its Theorem 5.8 gives the latter answer, even when the collection of allowed functions is infinite and has no prescribed formula. The mission treats the theorem at that generality, while giving the finite positive case and the boundary case their own supporting targets. Roughgarden (2015), §§2.3 and 5.

Setting

A finite congestion game has a finite player set, a finite resource set EEE, and for each player iii a nonempty set SiS_iSi​ of subsets of EEE called strategies. Each resource eee has a cost function ce:N→Rc_e:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rce​:N→R. For a strategy profile A=(Ai)iA=(A_i)_iA=(Ai​)i​, its load xe(A)x_e(A)xe​(A) is the number of players whose selected strategy contains eee. Player iii pays Ci(A)=∑e∈Aice(xe(A))C_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i}c_e(x_e(A))Ci​(A)=∑e∈Ai​​ce​(xe​(A)), and the social cost is C(A)=∑iCi(A)C(A)=\sum_i C_i(A)C(A)=∑i​Ci​(A). A profile is a pure Nash equilibrium when no player can lower its own cost by changing its strategy alone. These are the objects of Example 2.5 in Roughgarden (2015).

Fix a nonempty set C\mathcal CC of resource cost functions, each nonnegative, nondecreasing, and not identically zero on positive loads. The class G(C)\mathcal G(\mathcal C)G(C) contains every finite congestion game whose resource functions belong to C\mathcal CC. It permits any finite number of players and resources and any nonempty strategy families. The pure price of anarchy ρpure(G)\rho_{\mathrm{pure}}(G)ρpure​(G) is the largest equilibrium-to-optimum cost ratio in one game, allowing +∞+\infty+∞ when an equilibrium costs more than zero but the optimum costs zero.

A game is (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ)-smooth if, for every two feasible profiles A,A∗A,A^*A,A∗, the sum of the player costs after each player individually switches from AiA_iAi​ to Ai∗A_i^*Ai∗​ is at most λC(A∗)+μC(A)\lambda C(A^*)+\mu C(A)λC(A∗)+μC(A). The set A(G(C))\mathcal A(\mathcal G(\mathcal C))A(G(C)) consists of pairs with μ<1\mu<1μ<1 that satisfy this inequality for every game in the class. A related resourcewise set A(C)\mathcal A(\mathcal C)A(C) asks, for every c∈Cc\in\mathcal Cc∈C, current load x≥0x\ge0x≥0, and comparison load x∗≥1x^*\ge1x∗≥1, that

c(x+1)x∗≤λc(x∗)x∗+μc(x)x.c(x+1)x^*\le\lambda c(x^*)x^*+\mu c(x)x.c(x+1)x∗≤λc(x∗)x∗+μc(x)x.

Its best ratio is γ(C)=inf⁡(λ,μ)∈A(C)λ/(1−μ)\gamma(\mathcal C)=\inf_{(\lambda,\mu)\in\mathcal A(\mathcal C)}\lambda/(1-\mu)γ(C)=inf(λ,μ)∈A(C)​λ/(1−μ), with value +∞+\infty+∞ if there is no admissible pair. The bounded-load versions A(C,n)\mathcal A(\mathcal C,n)A(C,n) and γ(C,n)\gamma(\mathcal C,n)γ(C,n) use 0≤x≤n0\le x\le n0≤x≤n and 1≤x∗≤n1\le x^*\le n1≤x∗≤n. Roughgarden (2015), equations (34)–(36) and (41).

Formalization targets

Tightness of the congestion-game class

Theorem 5.8, in the form of equation (34), is the goal:

sup⁡G∈G(C)ρpure(G)=inf⁡(λ,μ)∈A(G(C))λ1−μ.\sup_{G\in\mathcal G(\mathcal C)}\rho_{\mathrm{pure}}(G) =\inf_{(\lambda,\mu)\in\mathcal A(\mathcal G(\mathcal C))}\frac{\lambda}{1-\mu}.G∈G(C)sup​ρpure​(G)=(λ,μ)∈A(G(C))inf​1−μλ​.

It applies to every nonempty set C\mathcal CC satisfying the standing cost-function conditions, whether finite, countable, or uncountable. Neither the number of players nor the number of resources is fixed. The equality is stronger than the routine upper bound from smoothness: it says that the best upper bound available from a uniform smoothness argument matches actual worst-case pure-equilibrium inefficiency. Roughgarden (2015), Theorem 5.8 and (34).

Resourcewise characterization

The paper also identifies the common value with γ(C)\gamma(\mathcal C)γ(C):

sup⁡G∈G(C)ρpure(G)=γ(C).\sup_{G\in\mathcal G(\mathcal C)}\rho_{\mathrm{pure}}(G)=\gamma(\mathcal C).G∈G(C)sup​ρpure​(G)=γ(C).

The milestone list follows the paper's statements: the general upper bound; nonnegativity of μ\muμ; passage from resource constraints to game smoothness; the bound for one game; the two finite optimization lemmas; the finite lower-bound theorem; the infinite-price boundary case; the countable case; and the characterization by γ(C)\gamma(\mathcal C)γ(C). The finite lower-bound target uses the one-sided conclusion established in the proof of Theorem 5.6. Roughgarden (2015), §§5.1–5.5.

Significance

The equality rules out a uniform improvement of the worst-case pure price-of-anarchy bound by using features of pure Nash equilibrium that a smoothness argument ignores. In this domain the broader applicability of smoothness does not force a worse class-wide bound. For a chosen cost-function family, the resourcewise characterization expresses that bound through explicit inequalities rather than a search over every possible finite game. Roughgarden (2015), §§2.4 and 5.5.

The result is proved in the paper. The remaining work here is a machine-checked proof of its formal statement and supporting theorems. The published congestion-game model supplies loads, player costs, feasible profiles, and pure Nash equilibria. The definitions of smoothness parameters and prices of anarchy built for this mission can also support later work on other cost-function classes and equilibrium bounds. The goal statement itself is a proof target, not an already verified result.

Difficulty

The smoothness inequality immediately gives an upper bound on equilibrium costs, but it does not by itself show that a game attains or approaches that bound. The difficult direction relates a small family of resourcewise constraints to actual games with inefficient equilibria. For finite positive cost-function sets, the optimum parameter value may be attained or may be approached only at infinity in parameter space; the two cases have different statements in Lemmas 5.3 and 5.5. The general theorem must also cover functions that vanish at a positive load, unbounded worst-case ratios, and sets of functions of arbitrary cardinality. Simply optimizing a bound for one fixed game would miss the supremum over the entire class. Roughgarden (2015), §§5.2–5.4.

Formalization scope

Lean represents players and resources by Fin k and Fin m and quantifies over every k,m∈Nk,m\in\mathbb Nk,m∈N. A strategy is a finite resource subset, a strategy family is finite and nonempty, and all costs are real-valued at each load. The value c(0)c(0)c(0) is unrestricted because it is unused in a player's cost and is multiplied by zero in (35). The all-zero function is excluded as in §5.1. Nonemptiness of C\mathcal CC, stated at the start of that section, is carried into the finite optimization lemmas because their conclusions select functions from C\mathcal CC. Zero-player and zero-resource games are allowed and do not raise the worst-case supremum.

Prices of anarchy and the values γ\gammaγ are extended nonnegative reals. Thus an empty smoothness-parameter set has infimum +∞+\infty+∞; a positive equilibrium cost over zero optimum gives +∞+\infty+∞; and a game with no equilibrium contributes zero to the supremum. The paper's finite congestion games with nonempty strategy sets do have pure equilibria. The conversion of a real ratio λ/(1−μ)\lambda/(1-\mu)λ/(1−μ) into this type does not truncate admissible class-wide ratios: if some cost function has c(1)>0c(1)>0c(1)>0, a one-resource game forces the ratio to be at least one; if none does, the parameter set is empty. Smoothness and optimum quantify over feasible profiles only. These choices prevent the equality from becoming vacuous through an empty real infimum, total division by zero, or a supremum over a fixed small game size.

The complete development needs finite-set sums, function updates, extended nonnegative infima and suprema, and the published congestion-game definitions. Reusable contributions include lemmas about the resourcewise parameter sets and their relation to game smoothness. The paper's uncountable approximation paragraph has a gap for flat cost functions; the theorem remains the stated target, and a formal proof may use a different argument at that stage. Roughgarden (2015), pp. 31–32.

Selected references

  • Tim Roughgarden, Intrinsic Robustness of the Price of Anarchy, Journal of the ACM 62(5), Article 32, 2015. DOI. The source used here is the author's final version dated July 14, 2015; the cited page numbers are its printed pages.
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items 2: Selling Two I.I.D. Goods Separately Guarantees at Least e/(e + 1) ≈ 73% of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller with several goods can sell them one at a time or offer a mechanism that links allocation and payment across goods. Separate selling asks the seller to solve a one-good pricing problem for each item. A general mechanism can offer lotteries and menus whose outcomes depend on the buyer's whole valuation vector. The difference matters because the buyer's private information covers several values at once, and an optimal multidimensional mechanism need not resemble an ordinary posted price. Hart and Nisan ask how much revenue is guaranteed by simple selling rules when the joint valuation distribution is unrestricted apart from the stated independence assumptions (Hart and Nisan, arXiv:1204.1846v3).

This mission isolates their two-good, identically distributed result, Theorem B. The paper first gives a one-half guarantee for two independent goods with potentially different distributions, then improves the guarantee to e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) when their distributions agree. The improvement is a claim about every probability law on nonnegative values. It assumes neither a density nor a regularity condition on the tail of that law. The paper proves the result in Appendix A.1 after stating it in the introduction (Hart and Nisan, pp. 6 and 31–35).

Setting

There is one risk-neutral buyer and one seller. For two goods, the buyer's private valuation is a vector (Y,Z)(Y,Z)(Y,Z) with Y,Z≥0Y,Z\ge0Y,Z≥0. Values are additive: receiving both goods is worth Y+ZY+ZY+Z. The seller knows the distribution of the vector but not the realized values. In this mission, YYY and ZZZ are independent and have the same arbitrary probability law ν\nuν on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​. A law, rather than a named pair of random variables on a probability space, carries all the data needed by the revenue quantities.

A direct mechanism μ=(q,s)\mu=(q,s)μ=(q,s) takes a reported pair x=(y,z)x=(y,z)x=(y,z) and returns an allocation probability qi(x)∈[0,1]q_i(x)\in[0,1]qi​(x)∈[0,1] for each good and a real payment s(x)s(x)s(x) to the seller. The buyer's payoff from reporting truthfully is b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x)b(x)=q(x)\cdot x-s(x)b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x). The mechanism is incentive compatible (IC) if truthful reporting is at least as good as any other report for every possible valuation, and individually rational (IR) if truthful payoff is nonnegative everywhere. These requirements hold on the whole nonnegative orthant, as in Section 2.1 of the paper (Hart and Nisan, pp. 11–14).

Write R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) for the expected payment under a valuation law XXX and Rev⁡(X)\operatorname{Rev}(X)Rev(X) for the supremum of R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) over feasible, IC, IR mechanisms. For one good, write Rev⁡1(ν)\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)Rev1​(ν). The separate-selling revenue for two identically distributed goods is SRev⁡(Y,Z)=2Rev⁡1(ν)\operatorname{SRev}(Y,Z)=2\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)SRev(Y,Z)=2Rev1​(ν). Equation (1) of the paper identifies the one-good value with the supremum of posted-price revenue pPr⁡[Y≥p]p\Pr[Y\ge p]pPr[Y≥p]; the supremum formulation covers laws for which no maximizing price exists (Hart and Nisan, p. 12; Myerson, 1981).

Formalization targets

Theorem B: the guarantee for two i.i.d. goods

The goal is the exact upper bound written at the start of the paper's proof:

Rev⁡(Y,Z)≤e+1e(Rev⁡(Y)+Rev⁡(Z))=e+1eSRev⁡(Y,Z).\operatorname{Rev}(Y,Z)\le\frac{e+1}{e}\bigl(\operatorname{Rev}(Y)+\operatorname{Rev}(Z)\bigr)=\frac{e+1}{e}\operatorname{SRev}(Y,Z).Rev(Y,Z)≤ee+1​(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z))=ee+1​SRev(Y,Z).

Equivalently, separate selling guarantees at least e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) of optimal revenue whenever the ratio has an ordinary meaning. The inequality itself is the stable formulation at zero and infinite revenues. The formal goal uses the exact constant (e+1)/e(e+1)/e(e+1)/e, not the rounded percentage in the theorem's prose (Hart and Nisan, Theorem B, p. 6; proof, p. 31).

Supporting targets

The milestones include the one-good posted-price identity, the fact that nonnegative payments suffice when optimizing, symmetrization for identical independent goods, Lemma 19's lower-valuation revenue bound, equation (12), and the two expectation estimates and final numerical bound used after it. Proposition 5's IC characterization is also a draft theorem, though it is not a milestone. Each statement retains its source's domain and the constant 1/e1/e1/e. The final inequality for the right side of (12) is stated for every nondecreasing allocation function into [0,1][0,1][0,1], as required by the paper's argument on pp. 33–35.

Significance

Theorem B gives a distribution-free quantitative guarantee for an easy-to-describe selling rule in a setting where the optimal rule may depend on the buyer's entire two-dimensional private type. Its e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) guarantee is stronger than the one-half guarantee for merely independent goods stated as Theorem A. The conclusion concerns the best revenue available from all feasible IC and IR mechanisms, so the benchmark includes randomized allocations and payments depending on both reported values (Hart and Nisan, pp. 6 and 11–13).

The formalization target is a machine-checked version of a proved result, not a new conjecture. The proposal currently contains compiled Lean statements with unproved theorem bodies. A completed development would prove the stated inequality and its selected supporting results. It would also supply reusable definitions for direct mechanisms with additive nonnegative values, extended-real revenue, optimal revenue as a supremum, and symmetry of two-good mechanisms. No machine-checked proof of these proposed Hart–Nisan statements is claimed here.

Difficulty

The one-good posted-price formula does not directly control an arbitrary two-good mechanism: allocation of either good and the payment can depend on both reported values. Applying a one-good bound separately to the two coordinates therefore leaves terms that depend on the other coordinate. In particular, a direct comparison between each marginal posted-price optimum and the total payment loses the improved constant. The proof has to control the dependence created by a joint mechanism while retaining the exact 1/e1/e1/e numerical estimate. A second formal difficulty is that an admissible mechanism can have a negative expected payment even though optimal revenue is nonnegative, while an unrestricted law can give infinite optimal revenue. Replacing every expectation by an ordinary real integral or clipping each mechanism's revenue would change Lemma 19 and the intermediate inequalities (Hart and Nisan, pp. 31–35).

Formalization scope

Valuations are finite vectors ι→R≥0\iota\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}ι→R≥0​; the main theorem fixes ι=Fin⁡(2)\iota=\operatorname{Fin}(2)ι=Fin(2). The two-good law is the product of the same one-good probability measure in both coordinates, so independence and identical distribution are built into the data. The model represents allocation probabilities as real numbers with explicit bounds 0≤qi≤10\le q_i\le10≤qi​≤1. It requires IC and IR pointwise on all reports. No positive transfer (NPT) means s(x)≥0s(x)\ge0s(x)≥0 and is imposed only on supporting statements where the paper uses it. Following the paper's footnote 12, admissibility also requires the payment function to be measurable.

An individual expected payment is an extended real difference of positive and negative Lebesgue integrals. For IC mechanisms, the negative part is finite because the payment is bounded below by its value at zero. Optimal revenue is the supremum of the nonnegative clips of admissible mechanisms' expected payments; the zero mechanism makes this the same supremum as in the paper. Lemma 19 and equation (12) keep individual revenue in the extended reals. Supporting inequalities that write r=Rev⁡1(ν)r=\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)r=Rev1​(ν) as a real number explicitly assume r<∞r<\inftyr<∞; Theorem B does not. Integrals of bounded threshold functions use ordinary real expectation, while the nonnegative term WWW uses a nonnegative Lebesgue integral. The goal cannot be satisfied by a correlated joint law, a bounded-support special case, a vacuous assumption on ν\nuν, or a rounded constant.

The reusable work includes one-good posted-price revenue for arbitrary laws, a nonnegative-transfer reduction, a faithful single-mechanism revenue type, and probability identities for two independent coordinates. Theorem A, Theorem 7, Theorem 16, and a full formalization of the paper's other selling rules are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • Sergiu Hart and Noam Nisan, Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items, Journal of Economic Theory, 2017. Source used here: arXiv:1204.1846v3.
  • Roger B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. DOI:10.1287/moor.6.1.58.
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Operations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Prophet Inequalities Made Easy: Stochastic Optimization by Pricing Nonstochastic Inputs III: Under a Consistent Allocation Rule, (α, β)-Balanced Prices Are Closed Under Maxima of ValuationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Posted prices turn an offline allocation problem into a sequential choice process: each agent sees a menu of outcomes and prices, then chooses an outcome without revealing its full valuation. The balanced prices framework of Dütting, Feldman, Kesselheim, and Lucier gives welfare guarantees by comparing the revenue collected from an allocation with the welfare that remains feasible after it. Its appeal is that the comparison can be checked in a deterministic full-information setting before any probability distribution over valuations enters the analysis. Dütting et al., 2020

One valuation class at a time would make that framework difficult to reuse. Combinatorial auction valuations are often built by taking pointwise maxima of simpler valuations or by adding values from separate markets. Section 5 of the paper asks whether a price construction balanced for the simple class remains balanced after these operations. Theorem 5.3 gives the maximum closure result; Theorem 5.4 gives addition across markets. Appendix B extends both to the weaker balancing condition used elsewhere in the paper. Dütting et al., 2020, §5 and Appendix B

Setting

There are nnn agents in a fixed order. Agent iii receives an outcome xix_ixi​ from a space XiX_iXi​ containing a null outcome. A profile x=(xi)ix=(x_i)_ix=(xi​)i​ is feasible when it lies in F\mathcal FF. The model assumes downward closure: removing the outcomes of any group of agents from a feasible profile keeps it feasible. For a set of agents SSS, write xSx_SxS​ for the profile retaining xix_ixi​ on SSS and assigning the null outcome elsewhere. The prefix x[i−1]x_{[i-1]}x[i−1]​ retains only the agents before iii. Dütting et al., 2020, §2

A valuation profile vvv assigns each agent a function vi:Xi→Rv_i:X_i\to\mathbb Rvi​:Xi​→R. The welfare of xxx is v(x)=∑ivi(xi)v(x)=\sum_i v_i(x_i)v(x)=∑i​vi​(xi​). Every base valuation takes values in [0,1][0,1][0,1], the normalization stated in §2. For any set SSS of profiles, v(OPT⁡(v,S))v(\operatorname{OPT}(v,S))v(OPT(v,S)) denotes the best welfare achievable in SSS. An allocation rule ALG chooses a feasible profile from a valuation profile. A pricing rule assigns a nonnegative, possibly infinite price pi(xi∣y)p_i(x_i\mid y)pi​(xi​∣y) to outcome xix_ixi​ when the partial profile is yyy; an infeasible extension has infinite price. Dütting et al., 2020, pp. 547–548

An exchange-compatible family (Fx)x∈X(\mathcal F_x)_{x\in X}(Fx​)x∈X​ specifies a set of comparison profiles for each profile xxx. It is exchange compatible when replacing any one coordinate of xxx by the corresponding coordinate of any y∈Fxy\in\mathcal F_xy∈Fx​ gives a feasible profile. This property is required for every xxx in the full outcome space. A rule pvp^vpv is (α,β)(\alpha,\beta)(α,β)-balanced for valuation vvv, ALG, and that family, for constants α>0\alpha>0α>0 and β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0 (Definition 3.1), when both inequalities hold for every feasible xxx and every x′∈Fxx'\in\mathcal F_xx′∈Fx​:

v(ALG⁡(v))−v(OPT⁡(v,Fx))α≤∑ipiv(xi∣x[i−1]),∑ipiv(xi′∣x[i−1])≤βv(OPT⁡(v,Fx)).\frac{v(\operatorname{ALG}(v))-v(\operatorname{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))}{\alpha} \le \sum_i p_i^v(x_i\mid x_{[i-1]}), \qquad \sum_i p_i^v(x'_i\mid x_{[i-1]}) \le \beta v(\operatorname{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x)).αv(ALG(v))−v(OPT(v,Fx​))​≤i∑​piv​(xi​∣x[i−1]​),i∑​piv​(xi′​∣x[i−1]​)≤βv(OPT(v,Fx​)).

The maximum extension Vimax⁡V_i^{\max}Vimax​ of a base valuation space ViV_iVi​ consists of nonempty finite pointwise maxima of elements of ViV_iVi​. A base profile v~\tilde vv~ supports an extended profile vvv at xxx if v~i≤vi\tilde v_i\le v_iv~i​≤vi​ at every outcome and v~i(xi)=vi(xi)\tilde v_i(x_i)=v_i(x_i)v~i​(xi​)=vi​(xi​) for every agent. ALG is consistent when v~(ALG⁡(v~))≥v~(ALG⁡(v))\tilde v(\operatorname{ALG}(\tilde v))\ge\tilde v(\operatorname{ALG}(v))v~(ALG(v~))≥v~(ALG(v)) whenever v~\tilde vv~ supports vvv at ALG⁡(v)\operatorname{ALG}(v)ALG(v). The optimal allocation rule has this property by Lemma 5.2. Dütting et al., 2020, p. 554

Formalization targets

Closure under maxima

The goal is Theorem 5.3. Given one exchange-compatible family and a collection (pw)w∈V(p^w)_{w\in V}(pw)w∈V​ balanced for every base profile, consistency of ALG preserves the same constants for every extended profile and every corresponding supporting base profile:

v∈Vmax⁡,v~∈V supports v at ALG⁡(v)⟹pv~ is (α,β)-balanced for v.v\in V^{\max},\quad \tilde v\in V\text{ supports }v\text{ at }\operatorname{ALG}(v) \quad\Longrightarrow\quad p^{\tilde v}\text{ is }(\alpha,\beta)\text{-balanced for }v.v∈Vmax,v~∈V supports v at ALG(v)⟹pv~ is (α,β)-balanced for v.

The milestone list records the welfare supremum comparison and the two price inequalities in the paper's proof. The family Fx\mathcal F_xFx​ remains the same for all base and extended profiles. Dütting et al., 2020, Theorem 5.3 and proof

Closure under addition and weak balancedness

Theorem 5.4 treats mmm separate allocation problems. The joint outcome and feasible set are products; values and prices add across components; ALG applies each component's rule. It asserts balancedness with the same α\alphaα and β\betaβ. Appendix B changes the second balancedness bound to β1v(OPT⁡(v,Fx))+β2v(ALG⁡(v))\beta_1v(\operatorname{OPT}(v,\mathcal F_x))+\beta_2v(\operatorname{ALG}(v))β1​v(OPT(v,Fx​))+β2​v(ALG(v)) and requires strong consistency for maximum closure. Theorems B.2 and B.3 preserve α,β1,β2\alpha,\beta_1,\beta_2α,β1​,β2​ under maxima and addition, respectively. Dütting et al., 2020, Theorems 5.4, B.2, B.3

Significance

The maximum closure theorem lets a balanced-price construction for a simple valuation class cover finite maxima of that class without worsening its balancing constants. The addition theorem lets separately priced markets be combined by summing prices. Together these two operations account for the XOS composition discussed immediately after Theorem 5.4; the paper uses the results to connect its general framework to combinatorial auctions and multidimensional matroid settings. Dütting et al., 2020, p. 555

These results have paper proofs. The work here is to state their exact deterministic content in Lean so later formalizations of the price constructions can import the closure theorems. The definitions of supporting valuations, exchange-compatible families, and extended-real prices are reusable beyond this mission. The companion statements keep the product-market and weak-balancedness variants alongside the central theorem, while their proofs remain to be formalized.

Difficulty

For maximum closure, the prices are indexed by a base profile v~\tilde vv~ but must be balanced for a different profile vvv that is pointwise larger. A supporting profile agrees with vvv only at ALG's outcome ALG⁡(v)\operatorname{ALG}(v)ALG(v), while condition (a) refers to ALG⁡(v~)\operatorname{ALG}(\tilde v)ALG(v~), an outcome ALG chooses for a different input, and both conditions refer to optimal welfare over Fx\mathcal F_xFx​, where v~\tilde vv~ and vvv can differ. Balancedness of pv~p^{\tilde v}pv~ for v~\tilde vv~ therefore says nothing about vvv on its own; without a hypothesis tying ALG's choices for vvv and v~\tilde vv~ together the statement is false, which is why consistency (Definition 5.1) is part of the theorem. The formal statement must keep the real-valued optimum meaningful for maxima of base valuations, so the [0,1][0,1][0,1] normalization of §2 is carried through to Vmax⁡V^{\max}Vmax. Dütting et al., 2020, Definition 5.1 and Theorem 5.3

For addition, a direct product of the component comparison families has an edge case: a component family can be empty while another is nonempty. The paper's displayed product family then makes the lower balancedness inequality too strong. The theorem statements ask for an exchange-compatible family to exist, as the printed theorems do; they do not require that failing product family. This discrepancy is recorded for review. Dütting et al., 2020, proof of Theorem 5.4

Formalization scope

Agents and markets use zero-based finite indices; the paper writes agent indices from one. A profile's prefix contains exactly the agents with smaller indices. Valuations are functions to R\mathbb RR with base values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The maximum extension uses a nonempty finite set of base functions, so its maximum is defined at every outcome. Optimal welfare is a real supremum; bounded valuations keep it finite, and the empty set has value zero. Prices are extended nonnegative reals so +∞+\infty+∞ is retained. The lower balancedness inequality embeds its real right side using ofReal, which handles a negative lower bound consistently with nonnegative prices. The upper inequality keeps the price sum in extended reals.

The maximum theorem quantifies over every extended profile and every supporting base profile, including genuinely new maxima. It keeps one exchange-compatible family for all valuations. The maximum-closure theorems require every base price to satisfy the pricing-rule condition and conclude it for the supporting price. ALG feasibility is assumed on Vmax⁡V^{\max}Vmax, which contains the base profiles. The product theorems construct joint outcomes, additive values, componentwise ALG, and summed prices from the component data; they do not admit an unrelated joint allocation rule. Downward closure and a zero price for the null outcome at feasible partial allocations are included for the product statements. The latter is a disclosed assumption satisfied by the paper's pricing examples and needed to handle empty component families. No distribution or posted-price run is part of this deterministic mission. Lemma 5.2 and the strong-consistency companion take an optimal rule to be one that attains the welfare supremum over F\mathcal FF on every profile in Vmax⁡V^{\max}Vmax, the profiles to which Definitions 5.1 and B.1 apply it; the product companions additionally conclude that the summed prices form a pricing rule (infinite off F\mathcal FF). Their ALG feasibility premise concerns the component profiles supplied in the theorem.

The development needs finite dependent products and sums, finite maxima, real suprema of bounded sets, and extended nonnegative arithmetic. Contributions proving the three maximum-closure milestones, the goal, or the product-market companions are all within scope. A proof that specializes the supporting profile to v~=v\tilde v=vv~=v would lose the intended maximum extension and does not satisfy the goal's universal quantification.

Selected references

  • P. Dütting, M. Feldman, T. Kesselheim, and B. Lucier, Prophet Inequalities Made Easy: Stochastic Optimization by Pricing Nonstochastic Inputs, SIAM Journal on Computing 49(3):540–582, 2020. DOI: 10.1137/20M1323850.
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals I: Under Random Arrival Order, Nonadaptive Thresholds Earn a 1 − 1/e Fraction of E[max Xᵢ]Research Paper

Motivation

In a prophet inequality, a gambler sees prizes one at a time and must decide when to stop, while a prophet knows every realization and takes the largest. A stopping guarantee compares the gambler’s expected prize with the prophet’s. The order of arrival changes the problem: here the prizes are independent but can have different distributions, and every permutation of their arrival is equally likely. Before seeing any prize, the gambler chooses a threshold for each distribution and accepts the first prize above its threshold. Such a rule has no need to update thresholds after observing rejections. Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk, and Vredeveld prove that this restricted rule still earns at least a 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e fraction of the prophet’s expected maximum (Theorem 1, pp. 1455, 1459).

The random-arrival stopping model also supplies guarantees for posted-price mechanisms. A posted price gives a buyer a take-it-or-leave-it offer; the first buyer who accepts ends the sale. The paper explains the connection between its stopping rules and expected revenue under random buyer arrival (§1.1 and §5). This mission formalizes the stopping theorem itself, which is the mathematical guarantee used before that economic translation.

Setting

Let n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and let X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be independent, nonnegative real random variables with known, possibly different distributions. Their realizations arrive in a uniformly random order. A nonadaptive threshold rule chooses constants τi∈[0,∞]\tau_i\in[0,\infty]τi​∈[0,∞] before any realization is observed. It accepts the first arriving index iii with Xi>τiX_i>\tau_iXi​>τi​ and receives XiX_iXi​. If no prize crosses its threshold, its reward is zero. An infinite threshold deliberately excludes an index. The strict comparison matches Theorem 1, even though an earlier description in §1.2 uses a weak comparison (pp. 1454–1455).

For fixed realized prizes, write Yi=1{Xi>τi}Y_i=\mathbf1_{\{X_i>\tau_i\}}Yi​=1{Xi​>τi​}​. Conditional on the set of indices with Yi=1Y_i=1Yi​=1, each accepted index is equally likely to arrive first. The conditional expected reward is therefore

Rτ(X)=∑i=1nXiYi∑i=1nYi,0/0:=0.R_\tau(X)=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_iY_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}Y_i},\qquad 0/0:=0.Rτ​(X)=∑i=1n​Yi​∑i=1n​Xi​Yi​​,0/0:=0.

The prophet benchmark is X∗=max⁡iXiX^*=\max_i X_iX∗=maxi​Xi​. The theorem compares ERτ(X)\mathbb E R_\tau(X)ERτ​(X) with EX∗\mathbb E X^*EX∗, including distributions for which either expectation may be infinite. The variables need no common distribution and no atomlessness assumption.

The paper’s main supporting result is the Bernoulli Selection Lemma. It starts with independent Bernoulli indicators YiY_iYi​ of success probabilities qiq_iqi​, fixed real prizes bib_ibi​, and a chosen subset SSS. Its payoff is the average ∑i∈SbiYi/∑i∈SYi\sum_{i\in S}b_iY_i/\sum_{i\in S}Y_i∑i∈S​bi​Yi​/∑i∈S​Yi​, again zero when the denominator vanishes. The lemma compares the best subset with a finite linear optimization problem over 0≤zi≤qi0\le z_i\le q_i0≤zi​≤qi​ and ∑izi≤1\sum_i z_i\le1∑i​zi​≤1 (Lemma 1, p. 1455).

Formalization targets

Nonadaptive threshold guarantee

The goal is the exact constant of Theorem 1:

∃τ∈[0,∞]n:ERτ(X) ≥ (1−e−1) EX∗.\exists\tau\in[0,\infty]^n:\quad \mathbb E R_\tau(X)\ \ge\ (1-e^{-1})\,\mathbb E X^*.∃τ∈[0,∞]n:ERτ​(X) ≥ (1−e−1)EX∗.

The quantifiers range over every finite nonempty family of independent nonnegative variables. The thresholds are deterministic and indexed by the distributions, and the assertion covers atoms as well as continuous laws. This is the paper’s headline nonadaptive result (Theorem 1, p. 1459).

Bernoulli selection and comparison steps

The milestone list includes the paper’s multilinear formulation (4), its substitution (5), Proposition A.1, Lemmas 2 and 3, and the Bernoulli Selection Lemma. The latter states, in particular, that the maximum expected selected average dominates (1−e−1)(1-e^{-1})(1−e−1) times the optimum over feasible zzz. Two further milestones express the decomposition of the expected maximum and the upper-tail comparison used for continuous distributions (§2–3 and Appendix A). These targets fix the finite selection problem and the probabilistic quantities that the goal must connect.

Significance

The guarantee identifies what fixed, distribution-specific thresholds can achieve under random arrival: the expected accepted prize reaches a constant fraction of the prophet’s benchmark for every collection of independent nonnegative distributions. The paper also gives examples showing why a rule that keeps every positive prize is inadequate and studies where the 1−e−11-e^{-1}1−e−1 factor is tight (§2.1 and §3.1). These are claims about the performance of a restricted class of stopping rules, not about an optimal adaptive strategy.

The paper proves Theorem 1; a machine-checked proof of this mission’s goal remains to be supplied. The finite Bernoulli model, its subset optimum, and the nonnegative expectation conventions would be reusable for other random-order stopping and allocation results. This mission makes the paper’s claimed constants, event comparisons, and boundary cases explicit in the theorem statements so a later proof has a fixed target.

Difficulty

Taking the first value above a single low threshold can accept a modest prize before a rare large one arrives. Raising every threshold can instead reject too many prizes. The paper’s example with a constant prize and a rare large prize shows that accepting all available values does not meet the claimed factor (p. 1460). The difficulty is obtaining one set of fixed thresholds that balances those risks across different distributions, while the benchmark selects the largest realization after seeing them all. The Bernoulli selection inequality carries the sharp constant; connecting it to general distributions must also account for ties and atoms.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the index set by Fin n with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, so its index zero is the paper’s index one. The existing published definition SamuelCahnProphet.Median.Setting.maxX supplies the sample maximum; this mission defines the strict accepted set and its real-valued reward ratio. Thresholds live in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] because the paper explicitly uses ∞\infty∞ to exclude a variable. Expectations are nonnegative extended integrals of ENNReal.ofReal, preserving infinite values and avoiding a default zero for nonintegrable real integrals. The source’s nonnegativity assumption is represented almost surely, which is enough for these expectations and does not restrict the distributions further.

The Bernoulli law is a finite product formula. Its probabilities lie in [0,1][0,1][0,1], while prizes are arbitrary real numbers as in the printed lemma. The feasibility condition includes zi≥0z_i\ge0zi​≥0: these variables are probabilities, and allowing negative values would change the optimization problem. The finite subset optimum is an attained maximum. Proposition A.1 is stated for M≠∅M\ne\varnothingM=∅; an empty MMM contradicts the budget conclusion for a>0a>0a>0. It also includes the printed a=0a=0a=0 case. Lemma 2 includes y=1y=1y=1 as printed: the removable division by zero in (6) is assigned its continuous value 2/e2/e2/e. The comparison milestones for continuous distributions assume atomlessness explicitly; the goal does not.

The accepted set depends only on fixed thresholds and the realized values. It cannot depend on the sampled arrival order or on prior observations. A constant choice such as accepting every positive prize does not prove the target guarantee. Contributions that establish the finite Bernoulli selection result, its analytic bounds, the random-order reward identity, or the passage from continuous to arbitrary distributions all serve the stated goal. The random-order identity and the discontinuous case are further work beyond the current milestone list.

Selected references

  • José Correa, Patricio Foncea, Ruben Hoeksma, Tim Oosterwijk, and Tjark Vredeveld, Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(4), 1452–1478, 2021. DOI: 10.1287/moor.2020.1105.
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