Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 9: EΦ(f*) Is Controlled by the Conditional Square Function and the Largest Jump, for Every Φ of Moderate GrowthResearch Paper
Motivation
A martingale is a sum of increments each of which has conditional mean zero given the past. Most quantitative statements about martingales compare the size of the maximal function with some measure of the size of the increments. Two such measures are classical: the square function , which sums the realized squared increments, and the conditional square function , which sums their predicted conditional variances. The conditional square function is the discrete analogue of the predictable quadratic variation of a continuous-time martingale, and it is the quantity that appears in martingale central limit theorems, Freedman- and Bernstein-type exponential bounds, and in the analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms, where the noise is typically described through its conditional variance.
This mission formalizes Theorem 21.1 of D. L. Burkholder's 1971 Wald Memorial Lectures, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales (Ann. Probability 1 (1973) 19–42). The theorem bounds by and the size of the largest jump, for every of moderate growth.
Timeline. Rosenthal (1970) proved, for sums of independent mean-zero random variables and , that the -th moment of the sum is comparable to (Israel J. Math. 8 (1970)). Burkholder and Gundy (1970, [6] in the paper) developed extrapolation methods for martingale operators, including Example 8.2, which shows that fails for general (Acta Math. 124 (1970)). Theorem 21.1 follows from Theorem 3.1 of Burkholder, Davis and Gundy (1972, [5] in the paper), as remarked at the top of p. 553 of Burkholder's 1970 ICM address ([4] in the paper). In the Wald lectures Burkholder gives a direct proof by a distribution function inequality, which this mission formalizes.
Setting
Let be a probability space and a nondecreasing sequence of sub--fields of . Let be a martingale relative to , and set , so that the difference sequence is and for . Define
The first conditional expectation is taken with respect to . All three quantities may be infinite.
A function satisfies the conditions of Section 7 if it is nondecreasing and continuous, , and it has moderate growth:
The constant is the growth constant. The powers , , are the basic examples; need not be convex.
In Lean the shared layer is BurkholderDFI.CondSquare.Martingale: dseq f is , maxFn f is , maxFn (dseq f) is , condSqFn ℱ P f is and IsPhi Φ c is the class above.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 21.1
For every growth constant there is a constant such that for every martingale and every satisfying the conditions of Section 7,
The constant depends only on , and no value for it is fixed, so the goal remains valid under any improvement of the constant.
Milestones
- Doob's weak-type inequality (1.5): for .
- The distribution function inequality (21.2): for , and ,
- Lemma 7.1, which turns an inequality of the form into .
Further statements
Two consequences recorded in §21 are included as draft theorems: (21.5), , and the upper half (21.4) of Rosenthal's inequality for independent mean-zero sums.
Significance
The result. Theorem 21.1 controls the maximal function by predictable information (the conditional variances) plus the single largest jump, for every of moderate growth, convex or not. The jump term cannot be dropped: the paper notes that an inequality of the form fails for general (Example 8.2 of Burkholder–Gundy 1970), so some account of large individual increments is necessary. Specialized to independent increments, becomes the deterministic and the theorem yields the upper half of Rosenthal's inequality. The martingale version applies wherever increments are dependent but their conditional variances are controlled, as in stochastic approximation.
Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge neither Theorem 21.1 nor Rosenthal's inequality has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has Doob's maximal inequality and martingale convergence, but not the conditional square function, good- inequalities, or -moment inequalities with moderate growth. A complete development produces all three, together with the stopping-time manipulations (a martingale started at one stopping time and stopped at another) that most of the paper's arguments reuse.
Difficulty
The obvious approach is to use theory: for a square-integrable martingale, so and are comparable in . This identity gives nothing for other , and in particular for with or there is no direct comparison of and : can be small while one increment is huge. A bound for general must therefore handle the event where a single increment dominates, and it must work for every level simultaneously, using nothing about beyond monotonicity and the growth condition (6.1). Without convexity of , no Jensen- or duality-type argument applies.
Formalization scope
The Lean conventions committed to are:
- , , , and every expectation take values in (
ℝ≥0∞, lower Lebesgue integrals), so infinite values are meaningful and no junk value arises. - The conditional expectations are Mathlib's extended conditional expectations
condLExp, which need no integrability of . The Bochner conditional expectation orcondVarwould return on non-integrable and must not be substituted. - The filtration
ℱ : Filtration ℕ _is indexed from , withℱ k; the -th summand of pairs withℱ k. The paper states that is a martingale relative to ; the formalization states that is a Mathlib martingale, which also constrains the index- term. This is no restriction, since the extension is always possible, and all definitions use the paper's , never Lean'sf 0. IsPhi Φ cimposes (6.1) for every , which is equivalent to the paper's condition by continuity. The paper's hypothesis that is not identically zero is dropped, since every inequality is trivial for .- "The choice of depends only on " is the quantifier order , with in
Type. A constant chosen after or would trivialize the goal whenever the right-hand side is positive, and that formalization is ruled out. - Lemma 7.1 takes -valued and nonnegative . Rosenthal's inequality assumes integrable, mutually independent with mean zero.
Needed infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: the conditional square function and its basic properties for stopped martingales; a good- lemma for moderate-growth (Lemma 7.1, shared with the other missions of this series); and the layer-cake formula for a Lebesgue–Stieltjes . Proofs of the milestones, proofs of (21.5) and Rosenthal's inequality from the goal, and independent proofs of any of them are all welcome.
Selected references
- D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 1(1), 1973, 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176997023
- D. L. Burkholder, R. F. Gundy, Extrapolation and interpolation of quasi-linear operators on martingales, Acta Mathematica 124, 1970, 249–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02394573
- D. L. Burkholder, Inequalities for operators on martingales, Proc. International Congress of Mathematicians (Nice, 1970), vol. 2, Gauthier-Villars, 1971, 551–557.
- D. L. Burkholder, B. J. Davis, R. F. Gundy, Integral inequalities for convex functions of operators on martingales, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 2, 1972, 223–240.
- H. P. Rosenthal, On the subspaces of () spanned by sequences of independent random variables, Israel Journal of Mathematics 8, 1970, 273–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02771562
- J. L. Doob, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, New York, 1953.