Intertemporal Price Discrimination via Randomized Promotions: A Two-Point Price Distribution Is Optimal for Randomized Pricing with Two Customer SegmentsResearch Paper
Motivation
Retailers that run predictable promotions teach their customers to wait for them. A customer who knows that a discount will come next week has no reason to buy at the list price today. Firms therefore lose margin on exactly the customers who would have paid in full. One response, documented in practice by Moon, Bimpikis and Mendelson (2017), is to randomize promotions: commit to a distribution of prices, draw a fresh price every period, and let customers know only the distribution. A customer cannot time a discount that arrives at random. Whether waiting is worthwhile then depends on how patient the customer is.
The classical deterministic answer to strategic waiting is cyclic pricing: Conlisk, Gerstner and Sobel (1984) showed that a durable-goods monopolist facing a stream of arriving customers lowers its price periodically. Besbes and Lobel (2015) characterized optimal deterministic policies when customers differ in valuation and patience. Randomized prices as a model of sales go back to Varian (1980) in a competitive setting. Chen, Hu and Wu (SSRN 3223844, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023, doi:10.1287/msom.2023.1194) ask the monopoly question directly: which price distribution should a seller commit to when two customer segments differ in both valuation and waiting cost? This mission formalizes their answer for the two-segment base model.
Setting
A monopolist sells one product over an infinite horizon. A fraction of arriving customers are low-valuation customers, who value the product at and pay a waiting cost per period; the remaining are high-valuation customers, with valuation and waiting cost . Assumption (S) of the paper is and .
The firm announces a price distribution: a random price with finitely many possible values and probabilities summing to one. Each period an independent price is drawn from it. Write for the distribution function, for the mean price conditional on , and for the expected one-period surplus of a customer with valuation . The purchase threshold of a customer with waiting cost is
A customer whose valuation exceeds her threshold waits and buys at the first price not above it.
The paper reduces the firm's choice to the regime where low-valuation customers wait and high-valuation customers buy on arrival. The firm's long-run profit per arriving customer is then the objective of problem (2):
where is the low type's threshold. Replacing by in the objective gives the relaxation, problem (3). The key constants are
In Lean the parameters are vL vH cL cH α, a law is w : ℝ →₀ ℝ with IsPriceDist w, and the objects above are cdf, condExp, gain, thresh, Feas, obj2, obj3, ΔR, bnd , U1, U2. Here is written p^L in milestone text.
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 16)
Assume and , and let if and otherwise. Then every price distribution feasible for (2) earns at most in (2), and there is with as such that the two-point law
is feasible for (2) for all small and its profit tends to . This is the -optimality of the paper's Definition 1.
Milestones
- §3.2.2: for every law feasible for (2), , so (3) relaxes (2).
- §3.2.2: every feasible law has .
- Lemma 5, in the form its proof establishes: moving all mass above to preserves feasibility and does not lower the objective of (3).
- Lemma 6(ii)(a) and (b): every feasible law earns at most , respectively , in (3).
- Lemma 6(i), the complementary regime : no feasible law beats the static profit .
Significance
The result says that, in this model, the optimal randomized promotion is the simplest one. The firm posts the regular price most of the time and runs a promotion at with probability . High-valuation customers buy on arrival; low-valuation customers wait for the promotion. The discount below , of size , is the price of keeping low types in the market. The closed forms quantify the profit lost relative to perfect discrimination . The paper uses them to compare randomized with static and cyclic pricing (Propositions 4 and 8) and generalizes the structure to myopic customers and to segments.
The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a formal statement of the firm's problem over all finitely supported price laws on , a verified upper bound on its value, and a verified family that attains it in the limit. It also records three points the printed statements leave implicit (below).
Difficulty
The decision variable is an entire distribution, and the objective of (2) depends on it through the threshold , itself defined by a maximization over the distribution. The obvious approach, guessing the two-point law and checking first-order conditions, gives no upper bound over all laws. The upper bound has to hold for laws with arbitrarily many support points, of either sign and above , and both incentive constraints enter it. Problem (3) has a strict constraint and no maximizer, so every statement about "the optimal profit" has to be read as a supremum. The attainment half then needs the threshold of the two-point law, computed from its definition, to sit exactly below .
Formalization scope
- Distributions. A price law is
w : ℝ →₀ ℝwith nonnegative masses summing to one (finite support, as the paper assumes on p. 9). Prices range over all of : can be negative under the hypotheses, and with prices restricted to Proposition 3 is false for some admissible parameters. - Standing assumptions, hypotheses of every theorem: Assumption (S), (printed on p. 9), and (added; divides by ).
- Added hypothesis of the goal: . Without it and the two-point law is not a distribution.
- Conventions. is a quotient that Lean sets to when ; this never happens for feasible laws. is the real supremum of , which is a maximum for every price law. "The optimal expected profit is no more than " is read as a bound on every feasible law. "Optimal" in Proposition 3 is -optimality for (2), stated as the upper bound plus the approaching family, with existential.
- Lemma 5 as printed quantifies over optimal solutions of (3), which do not exist; the milestone states the dominance that its proof (Online Supplement p. 8) establishes.
- Ruled out. The profit and the threshold of the two-point law are not given in closed form: they are the general
obj2andthreshapplied to it. The upper bound ranges over all feasible laws, not two-point laws or laws on . "Optimal" is not read as "beats static pricing" (that is Proposition 4) or as an attained maximum, and may not depend on the competing law. - Not in the mission. The customer's optimal-stopping model (Lemma 1, Proposition 1, Lemma 2) is the paper's justification of the objective of (2); the mission states problem (2) as printed. Cyclic and Markovian pricing, myopic customers and segments are not posed.
- Needed infrastructure. Finite sums over
Finsuppsupports, monotonicity and continuity of , and the elementary concavity argument for . A general library of finitely supported real price laws (distribution function, partial expectations, expected surplus) would be reusable for other pricing papers. Proofs of any milestone are welcome.
Selected references
- H. Chen, M. Hu, J. Wu, Intertemporal Price Discrimination via Randomized Promotions, SSRN preprint 3223844 (revision of 2022-11-16); Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3223844, https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2023.1194
- J. Conlisk, E. Gerstner, J. Sobel, Cyclic pricing by a durable goods monopolist, Quarterly Journal of Economics 99(3), 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885961
- O. Besbes, I. Lobel, Intertemporal price discrimination: Structure and computation of optimal policies, Management Science 61(1), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2014.2049
- H. Varian, A model of sales, American Economic Review 70(4), 1980. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1803562
- X. Su, Intertemporal pricing with strategic customer behavior, Management Science 53(5), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0628
- K. Moon, K. Bimpikis, H. Mendelson, Randomized markdowns and online monitoring, Management Science, 2017.