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Operations Research

2,210 missions · 1,095 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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ProbabilityStochastic SystemsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models 2: The Triple-Balancing Policy Costs at Most Three Times the Optimum for Stochastic Lot-SizingResearch Paper

Motivation

Periodic-review inventory control with a fixed ordering cost is one of the oldest problems in operations research. A firm reviews its stock at the beginning of each of TTT periods, decides whether to place an order, pays a fixed cost KKK for every order it places, and pays holding costs on leftover stock and penalties on unmet (backlogged) demand. When demand is random and correlated across periods, and the firm's forecast evolves as information arrives, the optimal policy solves a dynamic program over the whole information state. That program is intractable in general, and in practice firms use heuristics with no performance guarantee.

Levi, Pál, Roundy and Shmoys (Math. Oper. Res. 32(2), 2007) gave policies with worst-case guarantees for these models, using a "marginal cost accounting" scheme that charges each unit's holding cost to the period in which it was ordered. For the model with fixed ordering costs, the stochastic lot-sizing problem, they assume that the demand of each period is known at the beginning of that period (make-to-order systems, or settings where the short-term forecast is accurate), while demand further ahead stays random and arbitrarily correlated. Under this assumption they define the triple-balancing policy and prove it costs at most three times the optimum in expectation.

Timeline:

  • Scarf (1960) proved that (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policies are optimal for independent demands with fixed costs; with correlated demand the optimal policy is a state-dependent (st(ft),St(ft))(s_t(f_t), S_t(f_t))(st​(ft​),St​(ft​)) rule that is hard to compute.
  • Levi, Pál, Roundy and Shmoys (2007) gave the dual-balancing 2-approximation for the model without fixed costs (§4) and the triple-balancing 3-approximation for the stochastic lot-sizing problem (§6, Theorem 6.1), both for arbitrarily correlated demand.

Setting

There are periods t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T on a probability space (Ω,F,μ)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mu)(Ω,F,μ) with a filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​): Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ is the information available at the beginning of period ttt. The data are a fixed ordering cost K≥0K\ge0K≥0, per-unit holding costs ht≥0h_t\ge0ht​≥0, per-unit backlogging penalties pt≥0p_t\ge0pt​≥0, an initial inventory level x1∈Rx_1\in\mathbb Rx1​∈R, and nonnegative demands DtD_tDt​. The per-unit ordering cost is zero, the lead time is zero and there is no discounting. The defining assumption is that DtD_tDt​ is Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable: the demand of a period is known when the period begins. For every period sss there is a conditional joint distribution IsI_sIs​ of the demands given Fs\mathcal F_sFs​, under which every conditional mean E[Dt∣fs]E[D_t\mid f_s]E[Dt​∣fs​] is finite.

A feasible policy is an order process Q=(Qt)Q=(Q_t)Q=(Qt​) with Qt≥0Q_t\ge0Qt​≥0 and QtQ_tQt​ determined by Ft\mathcal F_tFt​. Its inventory levels are xt=x1+∑j<t(Qj−Dj)x_t=x_1+\sum_{j<t}(Q_j-D_j)xt​=x1​+∑j<t​(Qj​−Dj​) before ordering and yt=xt+Qty_t=x_t+Q_tyt​=xt​+Qt​ after ordering, and its cost is

C(Q)=∑t=1T(K 1(Qt>0)+ht(yt−Dt)++pt(Dt−yt)+).\mathcal C(Q)=\sum_{t=1}^T\Bigl(K\,\mathbb 1(Q_t>0)+h_t(y_t-D_t)^++p_t(D_t-y_t)^+\Bigr).C(Q)=t=1∑T​(K1(Qt​>0)+ht​(yt​−Dt​)++pt​(Dt​−yt​)+).

The triple-balancing policy TB uses two rules. Let s∗s^*s∗ be the last period before sss in which TB ordered (s∗=0s^*=0s∗=0 if none). Rule 1: TB orders in period sss if and only if, without an order in sss, the accumulated backlogging cost over (s∗,s](s^*,s](s∗,s] would exceed KKK. Rule 2: when it orders in s<Ts<Ts<T, it orders

qsB=max⁡{q≥0: E[HsB(q)∣fs]≤K},HsB(q)=∑j=sThj(q−(D[s,j]−xs)+)+,q_s^B=\max\{q\ge0:\ E[H_s^B(q)\mid f_s]\le K\},\qquad H_s^B(q)=\sum_{j=s}^T h_j\bigl(q-(D_{[s,j]}-x_s)^+\bigr)^+,qsB​=max{q≥0: E[HsB​(q)∣fs​]≤K},HsB​(q)=j=s∑T​hj​(q−(D[s,j]​−xs​)+)+,

the largest quantity whose expected marginal holding cost over [s,T][s,T][s,T] is at most KKK. When it orders in period TTT, it orders exactly enough to clear the backorders and meet DTD_TDT​. Let NNN be the number of orders TB places.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1

For every instance, the triple-balancing policy TB and every feasible policy PPP satisfy

E[C(TB)]≤3 E[C(P)].E[\mathcal C(TB)]\le 3\,E[\mathcal C(P)].E[C(TB)]≤3E[C(P)].

The constant 3 is the paper's. The statement leaves the demand law, the information structure and the cost data unrestricted beyond the standing assumptions above.

Milestones

  1. §6.1, Rule 2 observation. In a period where TB orders, Ds≤ysTBD_s\le y_s^{TB}Ds​≤ysTB​: no backorders remain at the end of the period.
  2. Lemma 6.1. K⋅E[N]≤E[C(P)]K\cdot E[N]\le E[\mathcal C(P)]K⋅E[N]≤E[C(P)] for every feasible PPP.
  3. Lemma 6.2. E[C(TB)]≤E[C(P)]+2K⋅E[N]E[\mathcal C(TB)]\le E[\mathcal C(P)]+2K\cdot E[N]E[C(TB)]≤E[C(P)]+2K⋅E[N] for every feasible PPP.

Two non-milestone theorems show that the setting is not empty. A conditional demand law exists whenever demands are integrable, and a triple-balancing policy exists when hT>0h_T>0hT​>0.

Significance

The theorem gives a policy that can be computed online and comes with a worst-case expected-cost guarantee that does not depend on the demand distribution, the horizon or the cost data. In this setting the optimal policy is not computable in general, and the previously used heuristics have no such bound. The two lemmas separate a lower bound on every policy, in terms of TB's own number of orders, from an upper bound on TB's cost. The authors' subsequent work extends the balancing template to capacitated and multi-echelon models (§7 of the paper).

The result is proved in the paper. As far as we know, no machine-checked version exists of this theorem, of the balancing argument, or of a stochastic inventory model with correlated demand and evolving information. A formalization would check the argument, which is terse in places: the printed proof of Lemma 6.2 indexes its final sum loosely and must handle the event N=0N=0N=0. It would also produce reusable infrastructure for policies adapted to a filtration, for regular conditional distributions of future demand, and for cost accounting over random intervals between orders.

Difficulty

The costs of TB and of an arbitrary policy cannot be compared period by period, because the two policies order at different, random times that depend on the evolving information. Any comparison has to be made over intervals whose endpoints are stopping times determined by TB, conditioned on the information at their start. At such a time the other policy may hold more or less stock than TB, and the bound must hold in both cases. Bounding each policy's cost on its own does not work: the guarantee rests on a coupling between when TB orders and what every other policy must pay over the same random stretch of time. The formal side adds a second difficulty. Rule 2 is defined through a conditional expectation viewed as a function of the order quantity, so it needs a regular conditional distribution and a measurable selection of the maximizer.

Formalization scope

  • Periods are natural numbers 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T, demands and orders are real-valued, and data at indices outside 1,…,T1,\dots,T1,…,T are unused.
  • Information is a MeasureTheory.Filtration ℕ. A policy is feasible when it is nonnegative and adapted, and "DtD_tDt​ known at the start of period ttt" means DtD_tDt​ is Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable.
  • The conditional distributions IsI_sIs​ are model data: Markov kernels to demand paths that are Fs\mathcal F_sFs​-measurable regular conditional distributions of the demand path. At every outcome they make DsD_sDs​ deterministic, demands nonnegative and the conditional means E[Dt∣fs]E[D_t\mid f_s]E[Dt​∣fs​] finite.
  • Expected costs, E[N]E[N]E[N] and the conditional expectation in Rule 2 are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Lemma 6.2 is stated additively, E[C(TB)]≤E[C(P)]+2K E[N]E[\mathcal C(TB)]\le E[\mathcal C(P)]+2K\,E[N]E[C(TB)]≤E[C(P)]+2KE[N], which is the paper's inequality whenever the expectations are finite.
  • The comparison policy is an arbitrary feasible policy, not an optimal one. The paper's proofs use only feasibility, and this form implies the paper's whenever an optimum exists, without any existence hypothesis.
  • TB is the predicate "feasible and satisfies Rules 1 and 2 at every period and outcome". The rules determine the policy uniquely. Rule 1 uses a strict "exceeds KKK", and the period-TTT order is DT−xTD_T-x_TDT​−xT​.

Several trivializing formalizations are ruled out. Junk conditional expectations cannot make Rule 2 hold for every qqq, because it uses kernel integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Infinite expected costs cannot be read as 000. The policy class is not empty, because a separate theorem gives existence under hT>0h_T>0hT​>0 (without some positive holding cost on [s,T][s,T][s,T] the maximum in Rule 2 does not exist).

Contributions welcome: proofs of the existence theorems (measurable selection of qsBq_s^BqsB​, versions of regular conditional distributions), the stopping-time decomposition of the cost over TB's order intervals, and Lemmas 6.1 and 6.2.

Selected references

  • R. Levi, M. Pál, R. O. Roundy, D. B. Shmoys, Approximation Algorithms for Stochastic Inventory Control Models, Mathematics of Operations Research 32(2):284–302, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1060.0205
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
7 thms2 active usersReviewed
AnalysisConvex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Łojasiewicz Inequality for Nonsmooth Subanalytic Functions with Applications to Subgradient Dynamical Systems II: The Łojasiewicz Inequality for Convex Subanalytic Functions on Bounded SetsResearch Paper

Motivation

The Łojasiewicz inequality states that near a critical point aaa of a real-analytic function fff there are θ∈[0,1)\theta\in[0,1)θ∈[0,1) and CCC with ∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C ∥∇f(x)∥|f(x)-f(a)|^{\theta}\le C\,\|\nabla f(x)\|∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C∥∇f(x)∥. Łojasiewicz used it in the 1960s to prove that every bounded trajectory of the gradient flow x˙=−∇f(x)\dot x=-\nabla f(x)x˙=−∇f(x) has finite length and converges to a single critical point, a conclusion that fails for general C∞C^\inftyC∞ functions. The inequality has since become the standard tool for convergence analysis of descent methods on nonconvex problems.

Optimization problems are, however, rarely smooth: constraints enter through indicator functions, and objectives contain norms, maxima and penalties. Bolte, Daniilidis and Lewis (SIAM J. Optim. 17 (2007) 1205–1223) extended the inequality to nonsmooth subanalytic functions, replacing ∥∇f∥\|\nabla f\|∥∇f∥ by a slope built from the limiting subdifferential. Their Section 3.1 treats functions continuous on a closed domain; Section 3.2, the subject of this mission, treats lower semicontinuous convex functions, which may jump to +∞+\infty+∞ and whose domain need not be closed. The Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz framework built on this paper (Attouch–Bolte–Svaiter 2013; Bolte–Sabach–Teboulle 2014) underlies the convergence theory of proximal and splitting algorithms used throughout operations research.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean norm, and let f:Rn→R∪{+∞}f:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}f:Rn→R∪{+∞} with domain dom⁡f={x:f(x)<+∞}\operatorname{dom} f=\{x: f(x)<+\infty\}domf={x:f(x)<+∞}.

A set A⊆RnA\subseteq\mathbb R^nA⊆Rn is semianalytic if near every point it is a finite union of finite intersections of sets {fij=0, gij>0}\{f_{ij}=0,\ g_{ij}>0\}{fij​=0, gij​>0} with fij,gijf_{ij},g_{ij}fij​,gij​ real-analytic. It is subanalytic if near every point it is the projection of a bounded semianalytic subset of Rn×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm. A function is subanalytic when its graph {(x,λ):f(x)=λ}\{(x,\lambda): f(x)=\lambda\}{(x,λ):f(x)=λ} is. Semialgebraic functions (norms, polynomials, indicators of polyhedra) are subanalytic.

The Fréchet subdifferential ∂^f(x)\hat\partial f(x)∂^f(x) is the set of x∗x^*x∗ with lim inf⁡y→x, y≠x(f(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩)/∥y−x∥≥0\liminf_{y\to x,\,y\ne x}\big(f(y)-f(x)-\langle x^*,y-x\rangle\big)/\|y-x\|\ge 0liminfy→x,y=x​(f(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩)/∥y−x∥≥0, for x∈dom⁡fx\in\operatorname{dom} fx∈domf, and is empty otherwise. The limiting subdifferential ∂f(x)\partial f(x)∂f(x) is the set of limits of xk∗∈∂^f(xk)x_k^*\in\hat\partial f(x_k)xk∗​∈∂^f(xk​) with (xk,f(xk))→(x,f(x))(x_k,f(x_k))\to(x,f(x))(xk​,f(xk​))→(x,f(x)). The nonsmooth slope is mf(x)=inf⁡{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}m_f(x)=\inf\{\|x^*\|:x^*\in\partial f(x)\}mf​(x)=inf{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when ∂f(x)=∅\partial f(x)=\emptyset∂f(x)=∅, and crit⁡f={x:0∈∂f(x)}\operatorname{crit} f=\{x: 0\in\partial f(x)\}critf={x:0∈∂f(x)} is the set of critical points. For lower semicontinuous convex fff, ∂f\partial f∂f is the subdifferential of convex analysis and crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is the set of minimizers. Write min⁡f\min fminf for the minimum value and dS(x)d_S(x)dS​(x) for the distance from xxx to S=crit⁡fS=\operatorname{crit} fS=critf. The epigraphical sum g(x)=inf⁡u{f(u)+12∥x−u∥2}g(x)=\inf_u\{f(u)+\tfrac12\|x-u\|^2\}g(x)=infu​{f(u)+21​∥x−u∥2} is the Moreau envelope of fff.

Ratios follow the paper's conventions 00=10^0=100=1 and ∞/∞=0/0=0\infty/\infty=0/0=0∞/∞=0/0=0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

Let fff be lower semicontinuous, convex and subanalytic with crit⁡f≠∅\operatorname{crit} f\ne\emptysetcritf=∅. For every bounded set KKK there is θ∈[0,1)\theta\in[0,1)θ∈[0,1) such that

∣f−min⁡f∣θmfis bounded on K.\frac{|f-\min f|^{\theta}}{m_f}\quad\text{is bounded on }K.mf​∣f−minf∣θ​is bounded on K.

The exponent may depend on KKK; neither θ\thetaθ nor the bound is fixed.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (5): ∂f=∂^f=\partial f=\hat\partial f=∂f=∂^f= the convex subdifferential, for lsc convex fff.
  2. Section 3.2: crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is closed, convex and equal to the set of minimizers.
  3. Inequality (16): ∣f(x)−min⁡f∣≤∥x∗∥ dS(x)|f(x)-\min f|\le\|x^*\|\,d_S(x)∣f(x)−minf∣≤∥x∗∥dS​(x) for all x∗∈∂f(x)x^*\in\partial f(x)x∗∈∂f(x).
  4. Remark 3.6: ∣f−min⁡f∣/mf|f-\min f|/m_f∣f−minf∣/mf​ is bounded around every critical point, without subanalyticity.
  5. Proposition 2.9: the epigraphical sum ggg is C1C^1C1 and subanalytic when inf⁡f∈R\inf f\in\mathbb Rinff∈R.
  6. Properties (a)–(c): ggg is finite and C1C^1C1, g≤fg\le fg≤f, crit⁡g=crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} g=\operatorname{crit} fcritg=critf, inf⁡g=inf⁡f\inf g=\inf finfg=inff.
  7. Proposition 2.13(ii): crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is subanalytic for subanalytic fff that is relatively bounded on its domain.
  8. Section 2.1: the distance to a subanalytic set is subanalytic.
  9. The Łojasiewicz factorization lemma on compact sets (recalled from Bierstone–Milman).
  10. Inequality (15): dS(x)≤c−1/r∣f(x)−min⁡f∣1/rd_S(x)\le c^{-1/r}|f(x)-\min f|^{1/r}dS​(x)≤c−1/r∣f(x)−minf∣1/r on KKK, with r>1r>1r>1, c>0c>0c>0.
  11. Remark 3.5: the growth condition ∣f−min⁡f∣≥c dS r|f-\min f|\ge c\,d_S^{\,r}∣f−minf∣≥cdSr​ on a compact KKK alone yields a Łojasiewicz inequality at critical points interior to KKK.

Significance

Theorem 3.3 gives, for convex subanalytic functions, a Łojasiewicz inequality that is uniform on bounded sets rather than local at one critical point, and it needs neither continuity of fff on its domain nor a closed domain. Remark 3.4 of the paper exhibits a convex function covered by Theorem 3.3 but not by the continuous-case Theorem 3.1. Through inequality (20) of Section 4, it yields finite length and convergence rates for the subgradient flow x˙∈−∂f(x)\dot x\in-\partial f(x)x˙∈−∂f(x) of such functions. The intermediate inequality (15) is a Hölderian error bound, dS≤C∣f−min⁡f∣1/rd_S\le C|f-\min f|^{1/r}dS​≤C∣f−minf∣1/r, of the kind that drives linear and sublinear rate analyses of first-order methods.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version of it, or of the nonsmooth Łojasiewicz inequality in any form, is known. Formalizing it would add to the library: subanalytic sets and functions, the limiting subdifferential of convex functions and its agreement with the classical one, the Moreau envelope with its critical points and infimum, and the passage from a growth condition to a Łojasiewicz inequality. Remarks 3.5 and 3.6 isolate parts that need no subanalytic geometry at all.

Difficulty

The convex-analysis steps (inequality (16), properties of the Moreau envelope) are classical. The obstacle is subanalytic geometry. The natural first idea, applying the Łojasiewicz factorization lemma directly to f−min⁡ff-\min ff−minf and dSd_SdS​, fails: fff is neither continuous nor finite, and its domain need not be subanalytic even when fff is convex and subanalytic (Example 2.5 of the paper). The milestones route through the Moreau envelope, which is continuous and finite, but subanalyticity is not preserved by infima over unbounded sets, so the subanalyticity of the envelope (Proposition 2.9) needs a localization argument. The subanalyticity of crit⁡g\operatorname{crit} gcritg and of dSd_SdS​ rests on the stability theory of subanalytic sets (Gabrielov's complement theorem, the projection theorem for globally subanalytic sets), none of which exists in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Functions take values in EReal; "lower semicontinuous, convex, somewhere finite and never −∞-\infty−∞" is the published definition MoreauProx.Characterization.GammaZero, whose convexity is convexity of the epigraph. The Fréchet and limiting subdifferentials are the published NonconvexSplitting.Shared.IsRegularSubgrad and LimitingSubdiff; the convex subdifferential subgrad appears only in Eq. (5), which proves the agreement and is never assumed. Semianalytic and subanalytic sets are defined from scratch for any finite-dimensional real normed space, so that one definition serves Rn\mathbb R^nRn and its products; global subanalyticity is not defined. min⁡f\min fminf is written inf⁡yf(y)\inf_y f(y)infy​f(y) in EReal and converted to a real number only where it is finite. The bounded ratio (14) is encoded as "∣f(x)−min⁡f∣θ≤C∥x∗∥|f(x)-\min f|^{\theta}\le C\|x^*\|∣f(x)−minf∣θ≤C∥x∗∥ for every x∈Kx\in Kx∈K and every x∗∈∂f(x)x^*\in\partial f(x)x∗∈∂f(x)", with real powers (Real.rpow, 00=10^0=100=1). Inequalities (15) and (17) are imposed only where f(x)<+∞f(x)<+\inftyf(x)<+∞, since Lean sends +∞+\infty+∞ to 000 under toReal.

Trivializing encodings are ruled out: the goal is stated with the limiting subdifferential rather than an assumed convex subdifferential, the slope is never computed in ℝ≥0∞ where 0⋅∞=00\cdot\infty=00⋅∞=0 would make the ratio vacuous, and θ\thetaθ remains existential in [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) with the quantifier order "for every KKK there is θ\thetaθ", so that θ=0\theta=0θ=0 is excluded at critical points in KKK by 00=10^0=100=1.

A complete development needs a working theory of subanalytic sets (stability under finite unions, complements, closure, projections of bounded sets, the factorization lemma), the Moreau envelope of a convex function on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and its C1C^1C1 property, and the convex-analytic description of the limiting subdifferential. The subanalytic-geometry layer and the Moreau-envelope facts are reusable well beyond this mission; contributions to either, or proofs of the convex-only milestones (Eq. (5), (16), Remarks 3.5–3.6), are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, The Łojasiewicz inequality for nonsmooth subanalytic functions with applications to subgradient dynamical systems, SIAM J. Optim. 17(4) (2007) 1205–1223. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644641
  • E. Bierstone, P. D. Milman, Semianalytic and subanalytic sets, Publ. Math. IHÉS 67 (1988) 5–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699126
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
  • S. Łojasiewicz, Une propriété topologique des sous-ensembles analytiques réels, Les Équations aux Dérivées Partielles, Éditions du CNRS, Paris, 1963, 87–89.
  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, B. F. Svaiter, Convergence of descent methods for semi-algebraic and tame problems, Math. Program. 137 (2013) 91–129. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0484-9
  • J. Bolte, S. Sabach, M. Teboulle, Proximal alternating linearized minimization for nonconvex and nonsmooth problems, Math. Program. 146 (2014) 459–494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-013-0701-9
18 thms2 active usersReviewed
Linear OptimizationOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Smoothed Analysis of Algorithms: Why the Simplex Algorithm Usually Takes Polynomial Time 2: The Two-Phase Shadow-Vertex Simplex Method Has Polynomial Smoothed ComplexityResearch Paper

Motivation

The simplex method solves linear programs by moving between vertices of a feasible polyhedron. Its worst-case number of moves can grow exponentially, yet it often performs well on ordinary inputs. Worst-case examples alone therefore give an incomplete account of the method’s behavior. Spielman and Teng introduced smoothed analysis to measure expected performance after small random perturbations of an arbitrary input. Their result for a two-phase shadow-vertex simplex method gives a polynomial bound in the input dimensions and inverse perturbation scale. The pinned preprint is the source for every theorem number and constant in this mission.

The paper separates a geometric result about the expected size of a polytope’s shadow (Theorem 4.0.1) from the algorithmic result here (Theorem 5.0.1). That separation matters: a plane chosen before perturbation and a plane chosen by a running algorithm have different distributions. This mission addresses the latter. It complements the standard-form simplex theorems already formalized in the Introduction to Linear Optimization series and the worst-case Klee–Minty result in the Smale’s Ninth Problem mission; those results concern different algorithms or input models and are context rather than imported statements.

Setting

A linear program is specified by vectors a1,…,an∈Rda_1,\ldots,a_n\in\mathbb R^da1​,…,an​∈Rd, right-hand sides y1,…,yn∈Ry_1,\ldots,y_n\in\mathbb Ry1​,…,yn​∈R, and an objective vector z∈Rdz\in\mathbb R^dz∈Rd:

max⁡x⟨z,x⟩subject to⟨ai,x⟩≤yi(1≤i≤n).\max_x\langle z,x\rangle\quad\text{subject to}\quad \langle a_i,x\rangle\le y_i\qquad(1\le i\le n).xmax​⟨z,x⟩subject to⟨ai​,x⟩≤yi​(1≤i≤n).

The paper’s two-phase shadow-vertex method first draws a collection I\mathcal II of ddd-element subsets of [n][n][n] and chooses one whose constraint matrix AIA_IAI​ has the largest smallest singular value. It sets a power-of-two scale MMM from the input norm and a power-of-two scale κ\kappaκ from that singular value. These determine positive relaxed right-hand sides yi′y'_iyi′​: MMM for i∈Ii\in Ii∈I and dM2/(4κ)\sqrt d M^2/(4\kappa)d​M2/(4κ) otherwise. A coefficient vector α\alphaα is chosen uniformly from A1/d2={α:∑i∈Iαi=1, αi≥1/d2}A_{1/d^2}=\{\alpha:\sum_{i\in I}\alpha_i=1,\ \alpha_i\ge1/d^2\}A1/d2​={α:∑i∈I​αi​=1, αi​≥1/d2}. The first phase solves the relaxed program LP′ from the objective AIαA_I\alphaAI​α.

The second phase uses a lifted program LP⁺ in Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1. For each original constraint it forms ai+=((yi′−yi)/2,ai)a_i^+=((y'_i-y_i)/2,a_i)ai+​=((yi′​−yi​)/2,ai​) and yi+=(yi′+yi)/2y_i^+=(y'_i+y_i)/2yi+​=(yi′​+yi​)/2, together with two artificial constraints at first coordinates 111 and −1-1−1. LP⁺ connects LP′ to the original program and makes infeasibility detectable. Its shadow is taken in the plane of (0,z)(0,z)(0,z) and z+=(1,0,…,0)z^+=(1,0,\ldots,0)z+=(1,0,…,0).

For positive right-hand sides, an optimal polar simplex is a ddd-subset of constraints whose scaled vectors ai/yia_i/y_iai​/yi​ form a facet of ConvHull⁡(0,a1/y1,…,an/yn)\operatorname{ConvHull}(0,a_1/y_1,\ldots,a_n/y_n)ConvHull(0,a1​/y1​,…,an​/yn​) and whose unscaled cone contains an objective qqq. The shadow for objectives t,zt,zt,z is the union of these simplices over all qqq in Span⁡(t,z)\operatorname{Span}(t,z)Span(t,z). Its size bounds the number of polar pivots. In Section 5 the paper writes Sz′S'_zSz′​ for the first-phase shadow size and Sz+S_z^+Sz+​ for the second-phase shadow size without the two artificial pivots.

The input is perturbed by independent Gaussians: each coordinate of aia_iai​ and each yiy_iyi​ has its prescribed center and common standard deviation σR\sigma RσR, where R=max⁡i∥(yˉi,aˉi)∥2R=\max_i\|(\bar y_i,\bar a_i)\|_2R=maxi​∥(yˉ​i​,aˉi​)∥2​. The algorithm has separate random choices of I\mathcal II and α\alphaα.

Formalization targets

The immediate targets bound the two phases: Lemma 5.2.1 gives an explicit expectation bound for Sz′S'_zSz′​ and Lemma 5.3.1 gives one for Sz+S_z^+Sz+​. Lemma 5.1.1 and its corollaries control the chance that the chosen basis has a very small singular value. Corollary 4.3.3 extends the geometric shadow bound to positive, unequal right-hand sides and general Gaussian covariance. These are the mission’s milestone targets.

The goal is the shape of Theorem 5.0.1. With C(A,y,z)=EI,α(Sz′+Sz++2)C(A,y,z)=\mathbb E_{\mathcal I,\alpha}(S'_z+S_z^++2)C(A,y,z)=EI,α​(Sz′​+Sz+​+2), there are a single polynomial P\mathcal PP and a positive constant σ0\sigma_0σ0​ such that, for all n>d≥3n>d\ge3n>d≥3 and all centers and objectives,

EA,yC(A,y,z)≤min⁡{P(d,n,1min⁡(σ,σ0)),(nd)+(nd+1)+2}.\mathbb E_{A,y}C(A,y,z)\le \min\left\{\mathcal P\left(d,n,\frac1{\min(\sigma,\sigma_0)}\right), \binom nd+\binom n{d+1}+2\right\}.EA,y​C(A,y,z)≤min{P(d,n,min(σ,σ0​)1​),(dn​)+(d+1n​)+2}.

The polynomial is uniform over the dimensions and inputs; its coefficients are not prescribed. The bound on CCC implies the corresponding result for the actual pivot count through the paper’s step-to-shadow comparison. The goal is stated with a positive center scale RRR, the case in which the paper’s Gaussian rescaling applies.

Significance

The theorem places the number of pivots of a complete simplex method under one explicit perturbation model, including the work needed to find a starting feasible basis and handle an arbitrary right-hand side. The trivial binomial bound is retained because it controls rare events in the proof and is part of the stated result. The polynomial bound says that even when the unperturbed LP is adversarial, Gaussian noise of a controlled scale makes the expected shadow-size cost polynomial.

The paper proves the mathematical result. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its statement and the listed milestones; the draft Lean declarations are targets with sorry, not completed proofs. The reusable formal infrastructure is the finite polar simplex and shadow construction, product Gaussian input law, smallest-singular-value events for sampled minors, and the uniform truncated-simplex coefficient law. The two shadow-size lemmas also require explicit handling of measurable finite-valued counts and their expectations.

Difficulty

The basic shadow estimate fixes its projection plane before perturbing the constraints. In LP′, the initial objective AIαA_I\alphaAI​α uses a basis selected after the perturbation, so the relevant plane depends on the random LP. The fixed-plane theorem cannot be substituted directly. For LP⁺, the normalized lifted vectors ai+/yi+a_i^+/y_i^+ai+​/yi+​ are nonlinear functions of Gaussian data; they are generally not Gaussian vectors. Thus the same shadow estimate does not apply directly to their law either. A further issue is that a poor sampled basis can make y′y'y′ very large. These are distinct obstacles, reflected in the milestone groups from Sections 5.1, 5.2, and 5.3.

Formalization scope

Vectors are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), constraints are Fin n → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), and index families are finite sets of Fin n. The paper’s [n][n][n] starts at one; Fin n starts at zero. The Gaussian constructor receives variance σ2\sigma^2σ2, not standard deviation σ\sigmaσ. The 3ndln⁡n3nd\ln n3ndlnn draws are rounded upward and are independent uniform draws with replacement. Equal singular values are resolved by the first sampled set. The uniform law on AδA_\deltaAδ​ is represented by normalized independent exponential weights followed by the affine shift that imposes αi≥δ\alpha_i\ge\deltaαi​≥δ.

The Lean definition of CCC is exactly the Section 5 shadow-size upper bound E(Sz′+Sz++2)\mathbb E(S'_z+S_z^++2)E(Sz′​+Sz+​+2), computed from the sampled LP data. It is not an arbitrary cost variable. The actual algorithmic step bound needs the paper’s polar algorithm and Lemma 3.3.5. The goal explicitly asks for inner and outer integrability so Lean’s default value for a nonintegrable Bochner integral cannot make the result vacuous. The source’s all-zero center scale is excluded because it gives zero perturbation and defeats the rescaling used in Theorem 5.0.1.

For LP⁺ the vectors live in Rd+1\mathbb R^{d+1}Rd+1, so the two LP⁺ milestone bounds use D(n,d+1,⋅)\mathcal D(n,d+1,\cdot)D(n,d+1,⋅). The preprint prints ddd in those calls even though the preceding extension theorem would be applied in dimension d+1d+1d+1. Lemma 5.2.1 is written as an inequality: its printed equality is stronger than the bound established on page 71. These corrections are visible in the theorem titles and notes. Contributions that prove the exact statements, establish the measurability and Gaussian law facts, or formalize the step-to-shadow comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • Daniel A. Spielman and Shang-Hua Teng, Smoothed Analysis of Algorithms: Why the Simplex Algorithm Usually Takes Polynomial Time, arXiv:cs/0111050v7, 2003, preprint. The PDF used here is the 96-page version with printed and PDF page numbers aligned.
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Discrete GeometryLinear OptimizationOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Smoothed Analysis of Algorithms: Why the Simplex Algorithm Usually Takes Polynomial Time 1: The Expected Shadow of a Gaussian-Perturbed Polytope Has Polynomially Many VerticesResearch Paper

Why the shadow of a perturbed polytope matters

The simplex method solves linear programs very fast in practice, yet for most pivot rules there are inputs on which it takes exponentially many steps (Klee and Minty, 1972, for Dantzig's rule; Goldfarb, 1983, for the shadow-vertex rule). Average-case analyses (Borgwardt, 1980s; Smale, 1983) explained good behaviour on random inputs, but random inputs look nothing like real ones. Spielman and Teng introduced smoothed analysis to close this gap: the input is chosen by an adversary and then perturbed by a small Gaussian, and the running time is measured in expectation over the perturbation. They proved that the shadow-vertex simplex method has smoothed complexity polynomial in the number of constraints nnn, the dimension ddd and 1/σ1/\sigma1/σ (Spielman–Teng, J. ACM 2004; this mission follows the preprint arXiv:cs/0111050v7). The work received the Gödel Prize (2008) and the Fulkerson Prize (2009).

Timeline. Borgwardt (1977–1987) bounded the expected number of shadow-vertex pivots for rotationally symmetric random data. Spielman and Teng (2001, STOC; journal 2004) proved the first smoothed bound, with a shadow bound of order nd3/σ6nd^3/\sigma^6nd3/σ6 — the theorem of this mission. Deshpande and Spielman (FOCS 2005) improved the shadow bound, Vershynin (2009) reduced the dependence on nnn to polylogarithmic, and Dadush and Huiberts (STOC 2018) obtained O(d2log⁡n σ−2)O(d^2\sqrt{\log n}\,\sigma^{-2})O(d2logn​σ−2) for small σ\sigmaσ.

Setting

Fix d≥3d\ge3d≥3 and n>dn>dn>d. The data are vectors a1,…,an∈Rda_1,\dots,a_n\in\mathbb R^da1​,…,an​∈Rd, the constraint vectors of the linear program max⁡⟨z∣x⟩\max\langle z|x\ranglemax⟨z∣x⟩ subject to ⟨ai∣x⟩≤1\langle a_i|x\rangle\le1⟨ai​∣x⟩≤1 for all iii. Each aia_iai​ is a Gaussian of standard deviation σ\sigmaσ centered at a point aˉi\bar a_iaˉi​ with ∥aˉi∥≤1\|\bar a_i\|\le1∥aˉi​∥≤1: it has density

μi(a)=(12π σ)de−∥a−aˉi∥2/2σ2,\mu_i(a)=\Big(\tfrac{1}{\sqrt{2\pi}\,\sigma}\Big)^d e^{-\|a-\bar a_i\|^2/2\sigma^2},μi​(a)=(2π​σ1​)de−∥a−aˉi​∥2/2σ2,

and the aia_iai​ are independent (joint density ∏iμi(ai)\prod_i\mu_i(a_i)∏i​μi​(ai​)).

For a direction q∈Rdq\in\mathbb R^dq∈Rd, optSimpq(a1,…,an)\mathrm{optSimp}_q(a_1,\dots,a_n)optSimpq​(a1​,…,an​) is the set of index sets I⊆{1,…,n}I\subseteq\{1,\dots,n\}I⊆{1,…,n} with ∣I∣=d|I|=d∣I∣=d such that (ai)i∈I(a_i)_{i\in I}(ai​)i∈I​ is linearly independent, the simplex △(AI)=ConvHull(ai:i∈I)\triangle(A_I)=\mathrm{ConvHull}(a_i:i\in I)△(AI​)=ConvHull(ai​:i∈I) is a facet of ConvHull(0,a1,…,an)\mathrm{ConvHull}(0,a_1,\dots,a_n)ConvHull(0,a1​,…,an​), and qqq lies in the cone {∑i∈Iαiai:αi≥0}\{\sum_{i\in I}\alpha_ia_i:\alpha_i\ge0\}{∑i∈I​αi​ai​:αi​≥0}. In polar terms, III is the set of tight constraints at the vertex of the feasible polyhedron that maximizes ⟨q∣x⟩\langle q|x\rangle⟨q∣x⟩.

For linearly independent t,zt,zt,z, the shadow Shadowt,z(a1,…,an)\mathrm{Shadow}_{t,z}(a_1,\dots,a_n)Shadowt,z​(a1​,…,an​) is the set of index sets III that belong to optSimpq\mathrm{optSimp}_qoptSimpq​ for some nonzero q∈Span(t,z)q\in\mathrm{Span}(t,z)q∈Span(t,z). Its size is the number of vertices of the projection of the feasible polyhedron onto the plane Span(t,z)\mathrm{Span}(t,z)Span(t,z); the shadow-vertex method walks along this polygon, one pivot per vertex. Finally

D(n,d,σ)=58,888,678 nd3min⁡(σ, 1/(3dln⁡n))6.\mathcal D(n,d,\sigma)=\frac{58{,}888{,}678\,nd^3}{\min\big(\sigma,\,1/(3\sqrt{d\ln n})\big)^6}.D(n,d,σ)=min(σ,1/(3dlnn​))658,888,678nd3​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.0.1 (Shadow Size)

Ea1,…,an[ ∣Shadowt,z(a1,…,an)∣ ]≤D(n,d,σ)\mathbb E_{a_1,\dots,a_n}\big[\,|\mathrm{Shadow}_{t,z}(a_1,\dots,a_n)|\,\big]\le\mathcal D(n,d,\sigma)Ea1​,…,an​​[∣Shadowt,z​(a1​,…,an​)∣]≤D(n,d,σ)

for every d≥3d\ge3d≥3, n>dn>dn>d, every pair of linearly independent t,zt,zt,z, every σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 and all centers of norm at most 111.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof, leaves first.

  • Probability tools: the chi-square bound (Corollary 2.4.6), the combination lemma (Lemma 2.3.5), almost polynomial densities (Lemma 2.3.7), and comparing Gaussian tails (Lemma 2.4.11).
  • Reduction: the measure of the event P={∥ai∥≤2 ∀i}P=\{\|a_i\|\le2\ \forall i\}P={∥ai​∥≤2 ∀i} (Proposition 4.0.5), and the discretization of the shadow into mmm equally spaced directions (Lemma 4.0.6).
  • Angle bound: the probability, conditioned on PPP, that the ray through a fixed unit vector qqq passes within angle ε\varepsilonε of the boundary of its optimal facet is O(nd3ε/σ6)O(nd^3\varepsilon/\sigma^6)O(nd3ε/σ6) (Lemma 4.0.7, from Lemma 4.0.11).
  • Distance and incidence: in Blaschke coordinates ai=Rωbi+sqa_i=R_\omega b_i+sqai​=Rω​bi​+sq, a deterministic split (Lemma 4.0.12), a distance bound (Lemmas 4.1.1–4.1.3) and an angle-of-incidence bound (Lemmas 4.2.1–4.2.3).

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.0.1 is the geometric heart of the smoothed analysis of the simplex method. Section 4.3 of the paper extends it to arbitrary centers, covariances and right-hand sides, and Section 5 combines these extensions with a two-phase method to show that the simplex method has polynomial smoothed complexity. The same shadow bound underlies later analyses of the simplex method, of perturbed polytopes' diameters, and of condition numbers of random linear programs.

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved, and improved constants are known, but none of this is machine-checked. A formal proof would verify a long and delicate argument: a change of variables of integral geometry (Blaschke's formula), several conditional-density estimates, and explicit constants in the millions. The mission also produces reusable statements about Gaussian vectors and convex hulls of random points.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to count, for each candidate facet III, the probability that III appears in the shadow; there are (nd)\binom nd(dn​) candidates, so a union bound is exponential in ddd. The paper avoids this by discretizing the angle of qqq (Lemma 4.0.6) and bounding, for each fixed direction, the probability that the optimal facet changes within a small angular step. That needs a lower bound on the angle between qqq and the boundary of its optimal facet, conditioned on the facet being optimal. The conditioning changes the distribution of a1,…,ada_1,\dots,a_da1​,…,ad​, so the bound cannot come from the Gaussian density alone. The proof changes variables to the facet's normal ω\omegaω, offset sss and in-plane coordinates bib_ibi​ (Corollary 2.5.3), whose Jacobian contributes the factors ⟨ω∣q⟩\langle\omega|q\rangle⟨ω∣q⟩ and Vol(△(b))\mathrm{Vol}(\triangle(b))Vol(△(b)). It then shows that both the distance of the origin to a face of the in-plane simplex and the angle of incidence ⟨ω∣q⟩\langle\omega|q\rangle⟨ω∣q⟩ are unlikely to be small. Measure-theoretic bookkeeping is as hard as the geometry: densities known only up to normalization, conditioning on events of positive measure, and the measure-zero degeneracies the paper sets aside.

Formalization scope

Points live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Constraint vectors are indexed by Fin n (0-based), so the paper's {1,…,d}\{1,\dots,d\}{1,…,d} is {i:i<d}\{i:i<d\}{i:i<d}. The Gaussian of standard deviation σ\sigmaσ centered at ccc is Lebesgue measure with the density above, and the joint law is the product measure. Lemma 4.0.6 also uses Mathlib's multivariateGaussian with a positive definite covariance. Expectations of shadow sizes are lower Lebesgue integrals of [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued counts, and their measurability is part of each conclusion. "Density proportional to ν\nuν" and conditional probabilities are stated cross-multiplied, ∫Eν≤bound⋅∫ν\int_{E}\nu\le\text{bound}\cdot\int\nu∫E​ν≤bound⋅∫ν, so no 0/00/00/0 appears.

The shadow is the set of index sets III, and the direction q=0q=0q=0 is excluded. Including it would add every facet of ConvHull(0,a1,…,an)\mathrm{ConvHull}(0,a_1,\dots,a_n)ConvHull(0,a1​,…,an​) to the shadow, since 000 lies in every cone, and make the goal false. ang(q,∅)=∞\mathrm{ang}(q,\emptyset)=\inftyang(q,∅)=∞ is represented exactly in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], never by a real infimum. Where the paper omits a hypothesis it uses, it is added and recorded in the item: the standing assumptions d≥3d\ge3d≥3, n>dn>dn>d and σ≤1/(3dln⁡n)\sigma\le1/(3\sqrt{d\ln n})σ≤1/(3dlnn​) (Lemma 4.2.3 is false without a bound on σ\sigmaσ), unit length of the reference vector qqq, s≥0s\ge0s≥0, and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 for strict inequalities. Lemma 2.3.7 is stated with ≤\le≤ rather than the page's <<<, which fails in an edge case.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: Gaussian tail and chi-square estimates; faces and facets of convex hulls; the Blaschke change of variables and the latitude–longitude change of variables on the sphere (not in Mathlib); surface measure on Sd−1S^{d-1}Sd−1 (Mathlib's Measure.toSphere); and the disintegration of the joint law used in the combination lemma. The Gaussian estimates, the combination lemma and the Blaschke formula are useful beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas such as the change-of-variables formulas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. A. Spielman, S.-H. Teng, Smoothed Analysis of Algorithms: Why the Simplex Algorithm Usually Takes Polynomial Time, arXiv:cs/0111050v7, 2003. https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0111050v7
  • D. A. Spielman, S.-H. Teng, Smoothed analysis of algorithms: Why the simplex algorithm usually takes polynomial time, J. ACM 51(3):385–463, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1145/990308.990310
  • K. H. Borgwardt, The Simplex Method: A Probabilistic Analysis, Springer, 1987.
  • V. Klee, G. J. Minty, How good is the simplex algorithm?, in Inequalities III, Academic Press, 1972, 159–175.
  • A. Deshpande, D. A. Spielman, Improved smoothed analysis of the shadow vertex simplex method, FOCS 2005, 387–396.
  • R. Vershynin, Beyond Hirsch conjecture: walks on random polytopes and smoothed complexity of the simplex method, SIAM J. Comput. 39(2):646–678, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/070683386
  • D. Dadush, S. Huiberts, A friendly smoothed analysis of the simplex method, STOC 2018; arXiv:1711.05667. https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.05667
29 thms2 active usersReviewed
ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic: Reflected Brownian Motion Limit for the Queue Length ProcessResearch Paper

Motivation

Open networks of single-server queues with general interarrival and service distributions are the standard model of job shops, communication networks and service systems. Outside the product-form (Jackson) case their queue-length distributions are not known in closed form. When every station is close to saturation, a heavy-traffic limit replaces the network by a diffusion process. Martin I. Reiman's paper Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic (Mathematics of Operations Research 9(3), 1984) proves such a limit for the vector of queue lengths of a general open network. The limit is a reflected Brownian motion on the nonnegative orthant. That process has since become the default diffusion approximation for open networks, and it is the starting point of later work on its stationary distribution and on control of networks in heavy traffic.

Timeline:

  • Iglehart and Whitt (1970a,b) proved heavy-traffic limits for a single multiple-server station and for acyclic networks, in which no customer visits a station twice.
  • Harrison (1973, 1978) treated tandem queues; the 1978 paper introduced reflected Brownian motion on the nonnegative orthant as the diffusion limit.
  • Harrison and Reiman (1981a, Ann. Probab. 9:302–308) constructed reflected Brownian motion on the orthant through a continuous reflection mapping. That paper is the source of Lemma 1 here.

(These attributions follow Reiman's own account, pp. 441–442 of the 1984 paper.)

  • Reiman (1984) proved the limit for general open networks with Markovian routing (Theorem 1). The paper also proves a limit for sojourn times along fixed routes (Theorem 2).

Setting

There are KKK single-server stations and a nonempty set J⊆{1,…,K}\mathcal J\subseteq\{1,\dots,K\}J⊆{1,…,K} of stations that receive customers from outside. The primitives are mutually independent sequences of IID random variables: interarrival times uki>0u_k^i>0uki​>0 (k∈Jk\in\mathcal Jk∈J), service times vki>0v_k^i>0vki​>0, and routing indicators ϕki∈{0,1,…,K}\phi_k^i\in\{0,1,\dots,K\}ϕki​∈{0,1,…,K}. When the iiith customer served at station kkk finishes, it moves to station ϕki\phi_k^iϕki​, or leaves if ϕki=0\phi_k^i=0ϕki​=0. The parameters are the service rates μk=(Evk1)−1\mu_k=(E v_k^1)^{-1}μk​=(Evk1​)−1, the service-time variances sk=var⁡vk1s_k=\operatorname{var} v_k^1sk​=varvk1​, the arrival rates λk=(Euk1)−1\lambda_k=(E u_k^1)^{-1}λk​=(Euk1​)−1 (with λk=0\lambda_k=0λk​=0 for k∉Jk\notin\mathcal Jk∈/J), and the interarrival variances ak=var⁡uk1a_k=\operatorname{var} u_k^1ak​=varuk1​. The routing matrix P=(pkj)P=(p_{kj})P=(pkj​), pkj=P{ϕk1=j}p_{kj}=P\{\phi_k^1=j\}pkj​=P{ϕk1​=j}, has spectral radius strictly less than one, so every customer eventually leaves.

Let Ak(t)A_k(t)Ak​(t) be the number of exogenous arrivals to station kkk by time ttt, and Sk(t)S_k(t)Sk​(t) the number of service completions at kkk in ttt units of busy time. Let S^k(t)=∑i≤Sk(t)eϕki−Sk(t)ek\hat S_k(t)=\sum_{i\le S_k(t)}e_{\phi_k^i}-S_k(t)e_kS^k​(t)=∑i≤Sk​(t)​eϕki​​−Sk​(t)ek​, with e0=0e_0=0e0​=0. The queue length Q(t)∈Z+KQ(t)\in\mathbb Z_+^KQ(t)∈Z+K​ and the busy time B(t)B(t)B(t) are the unique solution of

Q(t)=A(t)+∑k=1KS^k(Bk(t)),Bk(t)=∫0t1{Qk(s)>0} ds,B(0)=0.Q(t)=A(t)+\sum_{k=1}^K\hat S_k(B_k(t)),\qquad B_k(t)=\int_0^t1_{\{Q_k(s)>0\}}\,ds,\qquad B(0)=0 .Q(t)=A(t)+k=1∑K​S^k​(Bk​(t)),Bk​(t)=∫0t​1{Qk​(s)>0}​ds,B(0)=0.

A sequence of such networks, indexed by nnn, shares KKK, J\mathcal JJ and PPP. Its parameters μ(n),s(n),λ(n),a(n)\mu(n),s(n),\lambda(n),a(n)μ(n),s(n),λ(n),a(n) converge to finite limits μ,s,λ,a\mu,s,\lambda,aμ,s,λ,a. With ν(n)=λ(n)+μ(n)P\nu(n)=\lambda(n)+\mu(n)Pν(n)=λ(n)+μ(n)P, the heavy-traffic condition is

ck(n)=n (νk(n)−μk(n))→ck.c_k(n)=\sqrt n\,(\nu_k(n)-\mu_k(n))\to c_k .ck​(n)=n​(νk​(n)−μk​(n))→ck​.

Moments of order 2+ϵ2+\epsilon2+ϵ of the interarrival and service times are bounded uniformly in nnn. The scaled queue length is Zn(t)=n−1/2Qn(nt)Z^n(t)=n^{-1/2}Q^n(nt)Zn(t)=n−1/2Qn(nt), 0≤t≤10\le t\le10≤t≤1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Let ξ\xiξ be a Brownian motion with drift ccc and covariance matrix A\mathcal AA, where

Aii=λi3ai+μi3si(1−2pii)+∑jμjpji(1−pji+pjiμj2sj),\mathcal A_{ii}=\lambda_i^3a_i+\mu_i^3s_i(1-2p_{ii})+\sum_j\mu_jp_{ji}(1-p_{ji}+p_{ji}\mu_j^2s_j),Aii​=λi3​ai​+μi3​si​(1−2pii​)+j∑​μj​pji​(1−pji​+pji​μj2​sj​), Aij=−[μi3sipij+μj3sjpji+∑kμkpkipkj(1−μk2sk)](i≠j).\mathcal A_{ij}=-\Big[\mu_i^3s_ip_{ij}+\mu_j^3s_jp_{ji}+\sum_k\mu_kp_{ki}p_{kj}(1-\mu_k^2s_k)\Big]\quad(i\ne j).Aij​=−[μi3​si​pij​+μj3​sj​pji​+k∑​μk​pki​pkj​(1−μk2​sk​)](i=j).

Let Z=ϕ(ξ)Z=\phi(\xi)Z=ϕ(ξ) be its reflection with reflection matrix I−PI-PI−P. Then

Zn⇒Zin D[0,1] (Skorohod topology).Z^n\Rightarrow Z\quad\text{in } D[0,1]\text{ (Skorohod topology)}.Zn⇒Zin D[0,1] (Skorohod topology).

The goal fixes no constants beyond the parameters' limits. It is stated for every network sequence satisfying (20)–(26).

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's proof, in order:

  • the existence and uniqueness claim for (1)–(3);
  • the representation Q=X~+Y(I−P)Q=\tilde X+Y(I-P)Q=X~+Y(I−P) (Eq. (13));
  • the least-element map fff (Proposition 1);
  • the reflection mapping ϕ\phiϕ (Lemma 1) and f=ϕf=\phif=ϕ on continuous paths (Proposition 2);
  • the netput limit ζn⇒ζ\zeta^n\Rightarrow\zetaζn⇒ζ (Proposition 3);
  • stochastic boundedness of ZnZ^nZn (Lemma 6);
  • vanishing scaled idleness n−1Ikn(n)→0n^{-1}I^n_k(n)\to0n−1Ikn​(n)→0 (Proposition 4);
  • the centred limit ζ~n⇒ζ\tilde\zeta^n\Rightarrow\zetaζ~​n⇒ζ (Proposition 5).

Significance

Theorem 1 justifies the diffusion approximation of a heavily loaded open network. Writing Qn(t)≈n Z(t/n)Q^n(t)\approx\sqrt n\,Z(t/n)Qn(t)≈n​Z(t/n) reduces questions about the network to questions about one reflected Brownian motion, whose data are explicit functions of the first two moments of the primitives and of the routing matrix. The same limit, with Lemma 2, gives the paper's Theorem 2 on sojourn times. It is the model case for the multiclass heavy-traffic theory that followed.

The result has been proved since 1984. No machine-checked version exists. The mission's contributions would be:

  • a formal statement of the network, of its Harrison representation, and of weak convergence in DDD;
  • a formal proof of the reflection-mapping facts (Proposition 1, Lemma 1, Proposition 2), which are deterministic and reusable;
  • eventually, a formal proof of the full limit theorem.

Difficulty

The obvious route applies a functional central limit theorem to QnQ^nQn directly. That fails because QnQ^nQn is not a sum of independent terms: each station serves only while its queue is nonempty, so the service process is evaluated at the random busy time Bk(t)B_k(t)Bk​(t), which depends on the whole network. The proof therefore has to separate the netput process, which obeys a central limit theorem, from the regulator YYY. It then has to show that the random time change Bkn(nt)/nB^n_k(nt)/nBkn​(nt)/n converges to the identity, i.e. that idleness vanishes on the diffusion scale. Weak convergence must also be transported through a reflection map that is defined on all of DDD but is known to be continuous only at continuous paths.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the following conventions:

  • Stations are Fin K, vectors are row vectors Fin K → ℝ, and a row vector times a matrix is Matrix.vecMul.
  • A routing indicator lives in Fin (K+1), with 0 meaning "leaves" and j.succ meaning station jjj.
  • The primitives are mutually independent (iIndep of their σ-algebras), IID within each sequence, everywhere positive and square integrable.
  • "Spectral radius <1<1<1" is stated as Pm→0P^m\to0Pm→0.
  • (Qn,Bn)(Q^n,B^n)(Qn,Bn) is any pair solving (1)–(3) almost surely, with measurable paths so that (2) is a Lebesgue integral.
  • The networks are indexed by ℕ; (25)–(26) are imposed for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, (22) and (26) over k∈Jk\in\mathcal Jk∈J, and J\mathcal JJ is the same for all nnn.
  • Brownian motion with drift ccc and covariance A\mathcal AA lives on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). It is defined by continuity, ξ(0)=0\xi(0)=0ξ(0)=0, independent increments, and the Gaussian characteristic function of increments.
  • ZZZ is the reflection of ξ\xiξ in the sense of (14)–(17).
  • Weak convergence in DDD is stated in Skorohod-representation form: a coupling with almost-sure J1_11​ convergence on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. This form accommodates a separate probability space for each nnn.

Added hypotheses, each implicit on the page:

  1. The existence item assumes Uk(l),Vk(l)→∞U_k(l),V_k(l)\to\inftyUk​(l),Vk​(l)→∞ at the sample point; without it the maxima defining Ak(t)A_k(t)Ak​(t) and Sk(t)S_k(t)Sk​(t) need not exist.
  2. Solutions of (1)–(3) have measurable paths.

No positivity hypothesis on the limits μk\mu_kμk​ is added: (25) and (26) bound the means of the service and interarrival times, so the limits are positive.

The statement is not to be weakened. Ruled out are:

  • convergence of finite-dimensional distributions only;
  • a single network without the index nnn;
  • uniform convergence used in place of the Skorohod topology without the coupling;
  • a Brownian motion that is not required to have independent Gaussian increments.

Each of these is a different theorem.

Useful contributions, all reusable beyond this mission:

  • the deterministic reflection-map results;
  • Donsker-type theorems for renewal counting processes in DDD;
  • the random time-change lemma (Billingsley);
  • the continuous mapping theorem in coupling form.

Selected references

  • M. I. Reiman, Open Queueing Networks in Heavy Traffic, Mathematics of Operations Research 9(3):441–458, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.9.3.441
  • J. M. Harrison and M. I. Reiman, Reflected Brownian Motion on an Orthant, Annals of Probability 9:302–308, 1981 (cited in Reiman 1984 as [6]).
  • J. M. Harrison, The Diffusion Approximation for Tandem Queues in Heavy Traffic, Advances in Applied Probability 10:886–905, 1978 (Reiman 1984, [5]).
  • J. M. Harrison, The Heavy Traffic Approximation for Single Server Queues in Series, Journal of Applied Probability 10:613–629, 1973 (Reiman 1984, [4]).
  • D. L. Iglehart and W. Whitt, Multiple Channel Queues in Heavy Traffic, I and II: Sequences, Networks, and Batches, Advances in Applied Probability 2:150–177 and 355–364, 1970 (Reiman 1984, [8], [9]).
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, Wiley, New York, 1968 (Reiman 1984, [1]).
13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing 4: A 6.75-Approximate Truthful Posted-Price Menu for Unit-Demand Buyers of Multiple ItemsResearch Paper

Motivation

A hotel sells rooms of several types, in limited numbers, to guests who each want one room. The revenue-optimal way to sell is known only in special cases: for buyers with several private values, optimal mechanisms can be randomized, involve lotteries, and lack a closed form (Manelli–Vincent 2007; Chawla, Hartline, Kleinberg 2007). In practice sellers post prices. The question is how much revenue posting prices gives up.

Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (arXiv:0907.2435v2, STOC 2010) answer it for a broad class of single- and multi-parameter problems. For unit-demand buyers of multiple copies of multiple items they show that a menu of posted prices, offered to the buyers in whatever order they arrive, earns at least 1/6.751/6.751/6.75 of the revenue of any deterministic truthful mechanism (Theorem 14). This mission formalizes that result together with the two steps it is built from: a reduction from the multi-parameter problem to a single-parameter one with "copies" of each buyer (Lemma 3, Theorem 4), and an order-oblivious pricing for the intersection of two partition matroids (Theorem 13).

Setting

Single-parameter problem (BSMD). Finitely many agents iii have independent private values vi∼Fiv_i \sim F_ivi​∼Fi​, each with a density on a bounded interval. A seller may serve any set in a downward-closed set system J\mathcal JJ. A deterministic mechanism MMM maps reported values vvv to a served set M(v)∈JM(v) \in \mathcal JM(v)∈J and payments πi(v)\pi_i(v)πi​(v); it is truthful if reporting the true value is a dominant strategy and no agent ends with negative utility. Its expected revenue is RM=Ev[∑iπi(v)]\mathcal R^M = \mathbb E_v[\sum_i \pi_i(v)]RM=Ev​[∑i​πi​(v)]. For prices ppp, agent iii desires service if pi≤vip_i \le v_ipi​≤vi​, and Sv\mathcal S_vSv​ is the class of maximal feasible sets of desiring agents. The order-oblivious revenue is

Rpobl=Ev[min⁡S∈Sv∑i∈Spi],\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p} = \mathbb E_{v}\Big[\min_{S \in \mathcal S_v} \sum_{i \in S} p_i\Big],Rpobl​=Ev​[S∈Sv​min​i∈S∑​pi​],

a lower bound on the revenue of posting the prices ppp to the agents in an adversarial order.

Multi-parameter unit-demand problem (BMUMD). There are mmm buyers and a finite set JJJ of services, partitioned into the groups JiJ_iJi​ of services targeted at buyer iii. Buyer iii has value vjv_jvj​ for each j∈Jij \in J_ij∈Ji​, all values independent with vj∼Fjv_j \sim F_jvj​∼Fj​, and the set system J⊆2J\mathcal J \subseteq 2^JJ⊆2J is unit-demand: ∣S∩Ji∣≤1|S \cap J_i| \le 1∣S∩Ji​∣≤1 for feasible SSS. A mechanism A\mathcal AA is truthful if no buyer gains by misreporting its whole vector (vj)j∈Ji(v_j)_{j \in J_i}(vj​)j∈Ji​​, and individually rational if a buyer receiving jjj pays at most vjv_jvj​ and a buyer receiving nothing pays 000.

Copies. The instance Icopies\mathcal I^{\mathrm{copies}}Icopies replaces each buyer iii by ∣Ji∣|J_i|∣Ji​∣ single-parameter agents, one per service j∈Jij \in J_ij∈Ji​ with value vjv_jvj​, under the same J\mathcal JJ.

Price menus. Given prices (pj)(p_j)(pj​) and an arrival order σ\sigmaσ, the price-menu mechanism approaches the buyers in order; buyer iii is offered the services of JiJ_iJi​ that can still be feasibly allocated, at prices pjp_jpj​, and buys a utility-maximizing one if some has pj≤vjp_j \le v_jpj​≤vj​.

Multiple copies of items. With items KKK and cap(k)\mathrm{cap}(k)cap(k) copies of item kkk, services are pairs (i,k)(i,k)(i,k) and a set of services is feasible if it gives each buyer at most one item and uses at most cap(k)\mathrm{cap}(k)cap(k) copies of kkk: the intersection of two partition matroids.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 14

For regular distributions there are prices ppp such that, for every arrival order σ\sigmaσ, the price-menu mechanism Pσ\mathcal P_\sigmaPσ​ is truthful and

RA≤274 RPσ\mathcal R^{\mathcal A} \le \tfrac{27}{4}\,\mathcal R^{\mathcal P_\sigma}RA≤427​RPσ​

for every individually rational, truthful deterministic mechanism A\mathcal AA.

Milestones

  • Truthful BMUMD mechanisms are weakly monotone (p. 13), and the allocation of Acopies\mathcal A^{\mathrm{copies}}Acopies is monotone in each vjv_jvj​ (p. 13).
  • Lemma 3: RA≤RA′\mathcal R^{\mathcal A} \le \mathcal R^{\mathcal A'}RA≤RA′ for some truthful A′\mathcal A'A′ on Icopies\mathcal I^{\mathrm{copies}}Icopies.
  • The price-menu mechanism allocates a maximal feasible set of services (p. 14).
  • Theorem 4: if RM′≤α Rpobl\mathcal R^{M'} \le \alpha\,\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}RM′≤αRpobl​ for every truthful M′M'M′ on Icopies\mathcal I^{\mathrm{copies}}Icopies, then RA≤α RPσ\mathcal R^{\mathcal A} \le \alpha\,\mathcal R^{\mathcal P_\sigma}RA≤αRPσ​ for every σ\sigmaσ and every truthful IR A\mathcal AA.
  • Lemma 2 (regular part): RM≤∑ipiMqiM\mathcal R^M \le \sum_i p^M_i q^M_iRM≤∑i​piM​qiM​, with qiMq^M_iqiM​ the probability that MMM serves iii and Fi(piM)=1−qiMF_i(p^M_i) = 1 - q^M_iFi​(piM​)=1−qiM​.
  • Theorem 19 (existence form): a revenue-optimal truthful mechanism exists.
  • The claim ci≥4/9c_i \ge 4/9ci​≥4/9 of App. D.4: under ∑i′∈Pqi′≤cap(P)/3\sum_{i' \in P} q_{i'} \le \mathrm{cap}(P)/3∑i′∈P​qi′​≤cap(P)/3 in every part, with probability at least 4/94/94/9 neither part of iii is full without iii.
  • Theorem 13: for two partition matroids there are prices with RM≤274 Rpobl\mathcal R^M \le \tfrac{27}{4}\,\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}RM≤427​Rpobl​ for every truthful MMM.

Significance

The result shows that for unit-demand buyers, a seller loses at most a constant factor by replacing the optimal, possibly opaque, truthful mechanism with a menu of prices that does not depend on the order in which buyers arrive. The reduction of Theorem 4 is generic: any order-oblivious pricing for the single-parameter instance with copies, under any unit-demand constraint, transfers to the multi-parameter instance with the same factor. Theorem 13 supplies one such pricing for the intersection of two partition matroids, which is exactly the shape of the multi-unit, multi-item constraint.

All results here are proved in the paper and none is formalized elsewhere; the platform has Myerson's single-unit optimal auction and weak monotonicity in an abstract quasilinear model (Börgers), but no posted-price approximation, no copies reduction, and no order-oblivious revenue. The formal development adds a machine-checked account of the reduction (in particular that the price-menu mechanism is truthful and allocates a maximal feasible set for every order), a precise version of the probabilistic claim behind the constant 6.756.756.75, and reusable definitions of order-oblivious revenue and of multi-parameter truthfulness with the paper's individual rationality.

Difficulty

Lemma 3 needs more than the observation that the copies instance has more competition: one must build a truthful single-parameter mechanism with at least the same revenue. The allocation is copied, but the payments must be threshold payments of the copies mechanism, and showing they dominate the original payments uses both weak monotonicity and the paper's individual rationality, through the taxation principle.

Theorem 13 compares order-oblivious revenue with Myerson's revenue through the bound of Lemma 2, at prices built from Myerson's service probabilities scaled by 1/31/31/3. The step that is easy to get wrong is the probability that an agent is considered: the events "part P1P_1P1​ is not full" and "part P2P_2P2​ is not full" depend on overlapping agents, so the product bound (2/3)(2/3)(2/3)(2/3)(2/3)(2/3) does not follow from Markov's inequality alone; it holds because both events are decreasing in the set of desiring agents (Harris' inequality). The comparison must also be uniform: one set of prices must serve against every truthful mechanism, which requires an optimal mechanism to exist.

Formalization scope

  • Distributions (P1): each FjF_jFj​ has a measurable density, strictly positive on a bounded interval [v‾j,v‾j]⊆[0,∞)[\underline v_j, \overline v_j] \subseteq [0, \infty)[v​j​,vj​]⊆[0,∞), with no mass outside. Values are independent (product prior).
  • Regularity (P2): the virtual value ϕ(v)=v−(1−F(v))/f(v)\phi(v) = v - (1 - F(v))/f(v)ϕ(v)=v−(1−F(v))/f(v) is non-decreasing on the support. It is assumed in Lemma 2, Theorem 19, Theorem 13 and the goal. Theorem 14 does not state it, but its proof goes through Theorem 13, which the paper proves for regular distributions; the non-regular extension (App. E, randomized prices) is out of scope, as is the second paragraph of Lemma 2.
  • Mechanisms (P3): deterministic; dominant-strategy truthful with misreports in the support (a buyer misreports all coordinates of JiJ_iJi​ at once); single-parameter IR is ex-post nonnegative utility; multi-parameter IR is the paper's (πi≤vj\pi_i \le v_jπi​≤vj​ if served jjj, πi=0\pi_i = 0πi​=0 if unserved); allocation events and payments measurable, payments integrable.
  • Benchmarks (P4): Myerson's mechanism is not constructed. "Approximates RM\mathcal R^{\mathcal M}RM" is stated against every truthful mechanism, and Lemma 3 and Theorem 19 in existence form.
  • Price menus: ties between utility-maximizing services are broken by a fixed enumeration of JJJ; a service of utility 000 is bought. Theorem 4 assumes α≥0\alpha \ge 0α≥0.
  • Dropped: the last sentence of Theorem 14 (polynomial-time computability of the prices) has no cost model here.
  • Constant: 6.756.756.75 is written 27/427/427/4 everywhere.
  • Not trivializable: the prices in Theorem 13 and the goal are chosen before the mechanism, and the benchmark includes every truthful mechanism, so a degenerate price vector cannot meet the bound; Rpobl\mathcal R^{\mathrm{obl}}_{\mathbf p}Rpobl​ is a genuine minimum over a nonempty finite class.

Needed infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: Myerson's characterization of truthful single-parameter mechanisms and the revenue–virtual-surplus identity for densities on intervals, Harris' inequality for product measures, and the taxation principle for deterministic multi-parameter mechanisms. Contributions on any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter Mechanism Design and Sequential Posted Pricing, STOC 2010; arXiv:0907.2435v2, 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.2435
  • R. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • S. Chawla, J. D. Hartline, R. Kleinberg, Algorithmic Pricing via Virtual Valuations, EC 2007. https://arxiv.org/abs/0711.3203
  • A. M. Manelli, D. R. Vincent, Multidimensional mechanism design: Revenue maximization and the multiple-good monopoly, Journal of Economic Theory 137(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2006.12.007
  • T. E. Harris, A lower bound for the critical probability in a certain percolation process, Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc. 56, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305004100034241
15 thms2 active usersReviewed
AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Łojasiewicz Inequality for Nonsmooth Subanalytic Functions with Applications to Subgradient Dynamical Systems I: The Łojasiewicz Inequality at Critical Points of Continuous Subanalytic FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

For a real-analytic function f:U→Rf : U \to \mathbb{R}f:U→R on an open set U⊆RnU \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nU⊆Rn and a critical point aaa (so ∇f(a)=0\nabla f(a) = 0∇f(a)=0), the Łojasiewicz gradient inequality says that there is an exponent θ∈[0,1)\theta \in [0,1)θ∈[0,1) such that ∣f−f(a)∣θ/∥∇f∥|f - f(a)|^{\theta} / \|\nabla f\|∣f−f(a)∣θ/∥∇f∥ stays bounded near aaa. It is the standard tool for proving that bounded gradient trajectories x˙=−∇f(x)\dot x = -\nabla f(x)x˙=−∇f(x) have finite length and converge to a single critical point, and, in its descendants (the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz property), for proving convergence of the whole iterate sequence of nonconvex descent methods: proximal gradient, alternating minimization, PALM, ADMM. Those algorithmic results all assume a nonsmooth version of the inequality, for functions that may take the value +∞+\infty+∞ and are not differentiable.

Bolte, Daniilidis and Lewis (SIAM J. Optim. 17 (2007)) supplied that nonsmooth version. This mission formalizes their first main result, Theorem 3.1: the inequality at critical points of subanalytic functions that are continuous on a closed domain.

Timeline.

  • 1963: Łojasiewicz proves the inequality for real-analytic functions (Une propriété topologique des sous-ensembles analytiques réels), and in 1984 derives convergence of bounded analytic gradient trajectories.
  • 1998: Kurdyka (Ann. Inst. Fourier 48) extends it to C1C^1C1 functions definable in an o-minimal structure, with a desingularizing function in place of the power.
  • 2006: Bolte, Daniilidis and Lewis prove a nonsmooth Sard theorem (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 321): a subanalytic function continuous on its closed domain is constant on each connected component of its critical set.
  • 2007: The present paper proves the nonsmooth inequality for continuous subanalytic functions (Theorem 3.1) and for lower semicontinuous convex ones (Theorem 3.3).
  • 2007: Bolte, Daniilidis, Lewis and Shiota (SIAM J. Optim. 18) extend it to lower semicontinuous functions definable in o-minimal structures (the KL property).

Setting

Write Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with its Euclidean norm. A function f:Rn→R∪{+∞}f : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R} \cup \{+\infty\}f:Rn→R∪{+∞} has domain dom⁡f={x:f(x)<+∞}\operatorname{dom} f = \{x : f(x) < +\infty\}domf={x:f(x)<+∞}.

Subanalytic sets (Definition 2.1). A set A⊆RnA \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nA⊆Rn is semianalytic if every point of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn has a neighbourhood VVV on which A∩V=⋃i=1p⋂j=1q{x∈V:fij(x)=0, gij(x)>0}A \cap V = \bigcup_{i=1}^{p}\bigcap_{j=1}^{q}\{x \in V : f_{ij}(x) = 0,\ g_{ij}(x) > 0\}A∩V=⋃i=1p​⋂j=1q​{x∈V:fij​(x)=0, gij​(x)>0} with fij,gijf_{ij}, g_{ij}fij​,gij​ real-analytic on VVV. It is subanalytic if every point of Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn has a neighbourhood VVV such that A∩VA \cap VA∩V is the projection onto Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn of a bounded semianalytic subset of Rn×Rm\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}^mRn×Rm, m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. A function fff is subanalytic if its graph {(x,λ)∈Rn×R:f(x)=λ}\{(x,\lambda) \in \mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R} : f(x) = \lambda\}{(x,λ)∈Rn×R:f(x)=λ} is subanalytic. Semialgebraic functions, and functions locally built from analytic ones by finitely many algebraic operations, max/min and compositions, are subanalytic.

Subdifferentials (Definition 2.10). The Fréchet subdifferential ∂^f(x)\hat\partial f(x)∂^f(x) is the set of x∗x^*x∗ with lim inf⁡y→x, y≠xf(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩∥y−x∥≥0\liminf_{y \to x,\, y \ne x} \frac{f(y) - f(x) - \langle x^*, y - x\rangle}{\|y - x\|} \ge 0liminfy→x,y=x​∥y−x∥f(y)−f(x)−⟨x∗,y−x⟩​≥0 (empty off dom⁡f\operatorname{dom} fdomf). The limiting subdifferential ∂f(x)\partial f(x)∂f(x) is the set of limits of xk∗∈∂^f(xk)x^*_k \in \hat\partial f(x_k)xk∗​∈∂^f(xk​) along xk→xx_k \to xxk​→x with f(xk)→f(x)f(x_k) \to f(x)f(xk​)→f(x).

Slope and critical points. The nonsmooth slope is mf(x)=inf⁡{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}m_f(x) = \inf\{\|x^*\| : x^* \in \partial f(x)\}mf​(x)=inf{∥x∗∥:x∗∈∂f(x)}, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when ∂f(x)=∅\partial f(x) = \emptyset∂f(x)=∅ (equation (4)). The critical set is crit⁡f={x:0∈∂f(x)}\operatorname{crit} f = \{x : 0 \in \partial f(x)\}critf={x:0∈∂f(x)} (Definition 2.11).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

Let fff be subanalytic with closed domain and f∣dom⁡ff|_{\operatorname{dom} f}f∣domf​ continuous, and let a∈crit⁡fa \in \operatorname{crit} fa∈critf. Then there is θ∈[0,1)\theta \in [0,1)θ∈[0,1) such that

∣f−f(a)∣θmf  is bounded around a,\frac{|f - f(a)|^{\theta}}{m_f} \ \text{ is bounded around } a,mf​∣f−f(a)∣θ​  is bounded around a,

with the conventions 00=10^0 = 100=1 and ∞/∞=0/0=0\infty/\infty = 0/0 = 0∞/∞=0/0=0. In division-free form: there are CCC and a neighbourhood UUU of aaa with ∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C∥x∗∥|f(x) - f(a)|^{\theta} \le C\|x^*\|∣f(x)−f(a)∣θ≤C∥x∗∥ for all x∈Ux \in Ux∈U and x∗∈∂f(x)x^* \in \partial f(x)x∗∈∂f(x). The exponent is existential; the goal fixes no value of θ\thetaθ or CCC.

Milestones

  1. Remark 2.12, for fff continuous on a closed domain: the graph of ∂f\partial f∂f is closed; crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is closed; mfm_fmf​ is lower semicontinuous; crit⁡f=mf−1(0)\operatorname{crit} f = m_f^{-1}(0)critf=mf−1​(0).
  2. Proposition 2.13(ii), its clause on the critical set: if fff is subanalytic and relatively bounded on its domain, then crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf is subanalytic.
  3. Equation (6), recalled from the nonsmooth Sard theorem: fff is constant on the connected component of crit⁡f\operatorname{crit} fcritf containing aaa.
  4. The curve selection lemma, recalled from Bierstone–Milman: a boundary point of a subanalytic set is the origin of an analytic arc entering the set.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.1 is the nonsmooth Łojasiewicz inequality at critical points. With the subgradient in place of the gradient, it yields finite length of bounded trajectories of subgradient systems x˙∈−∂f(x)\dot x \in -\partial f(x)x˙∈−∂f(x) (Section 4 of the paper) and is the template for the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz property that underlies convergence proofs for proximal and splitting methods on nonconvex, nonsmooth problems (e.g. Attouch–Bolte–Redont–Soubeyran 2010, Bolte–Sabach–Teboulle 2014). Those papers assume the KL property and cite this line of results to know it holds for semialgebraic and subanalytic objectives.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved; this mission produces a machine-checked proof. To our knowledge no proof assistant has a formal definition of subanalytic sets or of the nonsmooth Łojasiewicz inequality. The definitions layer (semianalytic and subanalytic sets, the slope, the inequality) is reusable by any later formalization of KL-based convergence analyses, and the milestones on Remark 2.12 are general facts about limiting subdifferentials that apply well beyond subanalytic geometry.

Difficulty

The obvious argument restricts fff and mfm_fmf​ to an analytic curve and compares their Puiseux expansions. That step needs three pieces of subanalytic geometry that no library has: curve selection, the structure of one-variable subanalytic functions (monotonicity and Puiseux expansions), and the fact that the sets built in the proof (sets of points with a subgradient satisfying an inequality, level-wise infima of mfm_fmf​) are again subanalytic, which in the paper goes through global subanalyticity and the projection theorem. The second obstacle is that fff is not smooth: the classical proof differentiates fff along a curve, while here only Fréchet subgradients are available, and the chain rule along an analytic curve holds only almost everywhere. The constancy of fff on critical components, equation (6), is itself a nonsmooth Sard-type theorem whose published proof uses stratification. A solver who replaces subanalytic by semialgebraic, or assumes fff real-valued and C1C^1C1, proves a different and much weaker statement.

Formalization scope

  • Space and values. The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The function is f : E → EReal with f x ≠ ⊥ for every x. The domain is {x | f x ≠ ⊤}; it is assumed closed, and f is assumed ContinuousOn it.
  • Subdifferentials. ∂^f\hat\partial f∂^f and ∂f\partial f∂f are the published platform definitions NonconvexSplitting.Shared.IsRegularSubgrad and LimitingSubdiff, which match Definition 2.10 for functions never equal to −∞-\infty−∞.
  • Subanalyticity. It is defined on any finite-dimensional real normed space, so that the same definition covers Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn, Rn×R\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}Rn×R and Rn×Rm\mathbb{R}^n \times \mathbb{R}^mRn×Rm. Analyticity is AnalyticOnNhd ℝ. The boundedness of the semianalytic set in Definition 2.1(ii) is part of the definition: without it every projection of a semianalytic set would count.
  • Slope. The slope is valued in [0,+∞][0,+\infty][0,+∞], with +∞+\infty+∞ on points without subgradients.
  • The inequality. It is the predicate LojIneqAt f a θ: one constant CCC and one neighbourhood of aaa, quantified over all limiting subgradients. Under 00=10^0 = 100=1 the value θ=0\theta = 0θ=0 never works at a critical point, as under the paper's conventions.
  • Not assumed. The goal does not assume lower semicontinuity, real values, global subanalyticity, compactness of the critical set, or f(a)=0f(a) = 0f(a)=0. These are reductions inside the paper's proof. Any formalization that adds them, fixes θ\thetaθ, or replaces the class of fff by semialgebraic or C1C^1C1 functions trivializes the target.
  • Infrastructure. A complete proof needs: curve selection; the monotonicity lemma and Puiseux expansions for one-variable globally subanalytic functions; the projection theorem or an equivalent definability argument; the nonsmooth Sard theorem (6); and a chain rule for Fréchet subgradients along analytic curves. Each of these is welcome as a separate contribution, and the subanalytic-geometry results are reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, The Łojasiewicz inequality for nonsmooth subanalytic functions with applications to subgradient dynamical systems, SIAM J. Optim. 17 (2007) 1205–1223. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644641
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, A Sard theorem for non-differentiable functions, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 321 (2006) 729–740.
  • E. Bierstone, P. Milman, Semianalytic and subanalytic sets, Publ. Math. IHÉS 67 (1988) 5–42. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02699126
  • K. Kurdyka, On gradients of functions definable in o-minimal structures, Ann. Inst. Fourier 48 (1998) 769–783. https://doi.org/10.5802/aif.1638
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, M. Shiota, Clarke subgradients of stratifiable functions, SIAM J. Optim. 18 (2007) 556–572. https://doi.org/10.1137/060670080
  • S. Łojasiewicz, Une propriété topologique des sous-ensembles analytiques réels, in Les Équations aux Dérivées Partielles, CNRS, Paris, 1963, 87–89.
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Grundlehren 317, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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Control TheoryMechanism DesignStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives 2: The Producer's First-Best Value in Closed FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Electricity demand response asks consumers to lower their consumption during price events, when generation is expensive or scarce. Field trials such as the Low Carbon London experiment showed that consumers do react to price signals, but that the reaction is erratic: the average consumption falls while its variability stays high, and a producer that has to follow the load curve in real time pays for that variability. Aïd, Possamaï and Touzi (arXiv:1810.09063; Math. Oper. Res. 2022, doi:10.1287/moor.2021.1201) model this as a continuous-time principal–agent problem in which the consumer (the agent) controls both the level and the volatility of consumption, and the producer (the principal) designs a payment that rewards both.

The paper compares two benchmarks. In the second best, the producer observes only the consumption path and the consumer responds optimally to the contract; this is the subject of the companion mission of this series. In the first best, the producer dictates both the contract and the consumer's effort, subject only to the consumer's participation. The first best is the reference point against which the cost of moral hazard, the information rent, is measured. This mission formalizes the first-best value in closed form, Proposition 3.1 (i) of the paper.

The methodology follows the continuous-time principal–agent literature: Holmström and Milgrom (1987) for exponential utilities and linear contracts, Sannikov (2008) for the dynamic-programming view of the agent's continuation value, and Cvitanić, Possamaï and Touzi (2018) for contracts indexed on both the output and its quadratic variation.

Setting

Fix integers N,d≥0N,d\ge0N,d≥0 (usages for the mean effort and for the volatility effort), cost parameters μ∈(0,∞)N\mu\in(0,\infty)^Nμ∈(0,∞)N, λ∈(0,∞)d\lambda\in(0,\infty)^dλ∈(0,∞)d, nominal volatilities σ∈(0,∞)d\sigma\in(0,\infty)^dσ∈(0,∞)d, effort bounds Amax⁡>0A_{\max}>0Amax​>0 and 0<ε≤10<\varepsilon\le10<ε≤1, risk aversions r,p>0r,p>0r,p>0, a marginal volatility cost h>0h>0h>0, slopes κ,θ∈R\kappa,\theta\in\mathbb Rκ,θ∈R, a horizon T>0T>0T>0, an initial consumption X0∈RX_0\in\mathbb RX0​∈R and a reservation utility R0<0R_0<0R0​<0.

The consumer chooses a mean effort α\alphaα with values in A=∏i[0,μiAmax⁡]A=\prod_i[0,\mu_iA_{\max}]A=∏i​[0,μi​Amax​] and a responsiveness effort β\betaβ with values in B=[ε,1]dB=[\varepsilon,1]^dB=[ε,1]d, at cost

c(α,β)=c1(α)+12c2(β),c1(a)=12∑iai2μi,c2(b)=∑jσj2λj(bj−1−1).c(\alpha,\beta)=c_1(\alpha)+\tfrac12c_2(\beta),\qquad c_1(a)=\tfrac12\sum_i\frac{a_i^2}{\mu_i},\qquad c_2(b)=\sum_j\frac{\sigma_j^2}{\lambda_j}\big(b_j^{-1}-1\big).c(α,β)=c1​(α)+21​c2​(β),c1​(a)=21​i∑​μi​ai2​​,c2​(b)=j∑​λj​σj2​​(bj−1​−1).

The consumption XXX follows Xt=X0−∫0tαs⋅1 ds+∫0tσ(βs)⋅dWsX_t=X_0-\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,ds+\int_0^t\sigma(\beta_s)\cdot dW_sXt​=X0​−∫0t​αs​⋅1ds+∫0t​σ(βs​)⋅dWs​ with σ(b)=(σ1b1,…,σdbd)\sigma(b)=(\sigma_1\sqrt{b_1},\dots,\sigma_d\sqrt{b_d})σ(b)=(σ1​b1​​,…,σd​bd​​), in the weak sense: XXX is the canonical process on C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R), and an admissible pair (ν,P)(\nu,\mathbb P)(ν,P) is a progressively measurable control ν=(α,β)\nu=(\alpha,\beta)ν=(α,β) with a probability measure under which XXX starts at X0X_0X0​ and solves the associated martingale problem.

The consumer values consumption by f(x)=κxf(x)=\kappa xf(x)=κx and the producer bears the generation cost g(x)=θxg(x)=\theta xg(x)=θx; write δ=κ−θ\delta=\kappa-\thetaδ=κ−θ. For a payment ξ\xiξ made at time TTT, the consumer's and the producer's criteria are

JA=EP[−e−r(ξ+∫0T(κXs−c(νs))ds)],JP=EP[−e−p(−ξ−∫0TθXsds−h2⟨X⟩T)].J_A=\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\Big[-e^{-r\left(\xi+\int_0^T(\kappa X_s-c(\nu_s))ds\right)}\Big],\qquad J_P=\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\Big[-e^{-p\left(-\xi-\int_0^T\theta X_sds-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T\right)}\Big].JA​=EP[−e−r(ξ+∫0T​(κXs​−c(νs​))ds)],JP​=EP[−e−p(−ξ−∫0T​θXs​ds−2h​⟨X⟩T​)].

A contract is an FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable ξ\xiξ with uniform exponential moments (2.5). The first-best value is

VFB=sup⁡{JP(ξ,ν,P): ξ a contract, (ν,P) admissible, JA(ξ,ν,P)≥R0}.V^{FB}=\sup\big\{J_P(\xi,\nu,\mathbb P):\ \xi\text{ a contract},\ (\nu,\mathbb P)\text{ admissible},\ J_A(\xi,\nu,\mathbb P)\ge R_0\big\}.VFB=sup{JP​(ξ,ν,P): ξ a contract, (ν,P) admissible, JA​(ξ,ν,P)≥R0​}.

The consumer's Hamiltonians are Hm(z)=−inf⁡a∈A{a⋅1 z+c1(a)}H_m(z)=-\inf_{a\in A}\{a\cdot\mathbf 1\,z+c_1(a)\}Hm​(z)=−infa∈A​{a⋅1z+c1​(a)} and Hv(γ)=−12inf⁡b∈B{c2(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}H_v(\gamma)=-\frac12\inf_{b\in B}\{c_2(b)-\gamma|\sigma(b)|^2\}Hv​(γ)=−21​infb∈B​{c2​(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}. Finally ρ=rpr+p\rho=\frac{rp}{r+p}ρ=r+prp​, L0=−1rlog⁡(−R0)L_0=-\frac1r\log(-R_0)L0​=−r1​log(−R0​), U(x)=−e−pxU(x)=-e^{-px}U(x)=−e−px, μˉ=∑iμi\bar\mu=\sum_i\mu_iμˉ​=∑i​μi​ and x−=max⁡(0,−x)x^-=\max(0,-x)x−=max(0,−x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.1 (i)

Assume δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. Then

VFB=U(vˉ(0,X0)−L0),vˉ(0,X0)=δTX0+∫0T(12μˉ(δ−)2(T−t)2+Hv(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2))dt.V^{FB}=U\big(\bar v(0,X_0)-L_0\big),\quad \bar v(0,X_0)=\delta TX_0+\int_0^T\Big(\tfrac12\bar\mu(\delta^-)^2(T-t)^2+H_v\big(-h-\rho\delta^2(T-t)^2\big)\Big)dt.VFB=U(vˉ(0,X0​)−L0​),vˉ(0,X0​)=δTX0​+∫0T​(21​μˉ​(δ−)2(T−t)2+Hv​(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2))dt.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1. The best responses a^(z)\hat a(z)a^(z), b^(γ)\hat b(\gamma)b^(γ) attain the infima defining HmH_mHm​, HvH_vHv​, and these Hamiltonians have explicit closed forms.
  2. (A.5). The auxiliary value Vˉ=sup⁡(ν,P)EP[−e−ρ(∫0T(δXt−c(νt))dt−h2⟨X⟩T)]\bar V=\sup_{(\nu,\mathbb P)}\mathbb E^{\mathbb P}\big[-e^{-\rho(\int_0^T(\delta X_t-c(\nu_t))dt-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T)}\big]Vˉ=sup(ν,P)​EP[−e−ρ(∫0T​(δXt​−c(νt​))dt−2h​⟨X⟩T​)] is finite and negative, and VFB=R0(Vˉ/R0)1+p/rV^{FB}=R_0(\bar V/R_0)^{1+p/r}VFB=R0​(Vˉ/R0​)1+p/r.
  3. Proposition A.3 (i), with the explicit solution of p. 28.
Vˉ=−e−ρ(δTX0+∫0Tmˉ(t)dt),mˉ(t)=Hm(δ(T−t))+Hv(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2).\bar V=-e^{-\rho\left(\delta TX_0+\int_0^T\bar m(t)dt\right)},\qquad \bar m(t)=H_m(\delta(T-t))+H_v\big(-h-\rho\delta^2(T-t)^2\big).Vˉ=−e−ρ(δTX0​+∫0T​mˉ(t)dt),mˉ(t)=Hm​(δ(T−t))+Hv​(−h−ρδ2(T−t)2).

Significance

The closed form shows how the first-best value depends on each parameter: on the energy value discrepancy δ\deltaδ through the mean-effort term, on the volatility cost hhh and the effective risk aversion ρ\rhoρ through the volatility Hamiltonian, and on the reservation utility only through the shift by L0L_0L0​. It is one half of the paper's information rent (Proposition 3.4), the gap between the first- and second-best values, and it is the benchmark against which the calibrated contracts of the paper's Section 4 are judged.

The result is proved in the paper, partly by appeal to standard stochastic control arguments. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. A formal proof requires a verification theorem for an exponential-utility control problem in the weak formulation, and a risk-sharing argument with a pathwise quadratic-variation term in the contract; both are reusable beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The deterministic parts, Proposition 2.1 and the algebra that turns (A.5) and the value of Vˉ\bar VVˉ into the goal, are calculus. The difficulty lies in the two stochastic steps. In (A.5), the producer's optimal payment for a given effort depends on ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​; it must be realised as a measurable function of the path that is a contract in the sense of (2.5), uniformly over all admissible laws, and the participation constraint must be shown to bind. In Proposition A.3 (i), the upper bound on Vˉ\bar VVˉ must hold for every progressively measurable, path-dependent control, not only for Markov feedback controls; the paper invokes "standard stochastic control theory", which has to be made precise for controls of the volatility under a martingale-problem formulation, where no Brownian motion is given in advance.

Formalization scope

The canonical space is C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R) with the coordinate σ-algebra and the canonical filtration; processes are indexed by [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Admissible pairs are given by a martingale problem: X0=X0X_0=X_0X0​=X0​ almost surely, and both Xt−X0+∫0tαs⋅1 dsX_t-X_0+\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,dsXt​−X0​+∫0t​αs​⋅1ds and its square minus ∫0t∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^t|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0t​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds are martingales. In the criteria, ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​ is replaced by its almost-sure value ∫0T∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^T|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0T​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds; a contract remains any FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable function of the path. Expectations of utilities are negated lower Lebesgue integrals of exponentials in [−∞,0][-\infty,0][−∞,0], and every value is an extended-real supremum with sup⁡∅=−∞\sup\emptyset=-\inftysup∅=−∞. BBB is read as [ε,1]d[\varepsilon,1]^d[ε,1]d, with indices in Fin N and Fin d.

The Hamiltonians are defined by their infima, never by their closed forms, so that Proposition 2.1 is not true by definition, and the first-best value is a supremum over the model's own objects, not a variable pinned by hypotheses. Three hypotheses are added to the page: ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (so B≠∅B\ne\emptysetB=∅), R0<0R_0<0R0​<0 (so L0L_0L0​ is defined), and, for the goal only, δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​, without which the printed 12μˉ(δ−)2(T−t)2\frac12\bar\mu(\delta^-)^2(T-t)^221​μˉ​(δ−)2(T−t)2 exceeds Hm(δ(T−t))H_m(\delta(T-t))Hm​(δ(T−t)) and contradicts the paper's own proof. Misprints corrected and disclosed in the items: the closed form of HmH_mHm​ in Proposition 2.1 is false for z−>Amax⁡z^->A_{\max}z−>Amax​ and is replaced by μˉ(mz−−m2/2)\bar\mu(m z^--m^2/2)μˉ​(mz−−m2/2) with m=z−∧Amax⁡m=z^-\wedge A_{\max}m=z−∧Amax​; the index range of b^\hat bb^ is j=1,…,dj=1,\dots,dj=1,…,d; on p. 28, ∫0tmˉ\int_0^t\bar m∫0t​mˉ is ∫tTmˉ\int_t^T\bar m∫tT​mˉ and "(A.11)" is (A.6).

The parts (ii)–(iii) of Proposition 3.1, the optimal efforts and the optimal contract, are not stated. Contributions welcome: a verification theorem for controlled martingale problems with bounded coefficients, exponential moment bounds uniform over admissible laws, and a pathwise quadratic variation on the canonical space.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Optimal electricity demand response contracting with responsiveness incentives, arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Math. Oper. Res. 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.09063
  • J. Cvitanić, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Dynamic programming approach to principal–agent problems, Finance Stoch. 22, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1510.07111
  • B. Holmström, P. Milgrom, Aggregation and linearity in the provision of intertemporal incentives, Econometrica 55, 1987. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913238
  • Y. Sannikov, A continuous-time version of the principal–agent problem, Rev. Econ. Stud. 75, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00463.x
  • I. Karatzas, S. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, Springer, 1991, §5.4 (martingale problems and weak solutions). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
7 thms2 active usersReviewed
Control TheoryMechanism DesignStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives 1: The Producer's Second-Best Value in Closed FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Demand response asks electricity consumers to lower or smooth their consumption when generation is expensive, in exchange for payments. Field trials such as Low Carbon London showed two effects of such incentives: consumers reduce their average consumption, and the variability of their response depends on how much effort they put into it. A producer who cannot observe the consumer's individual usages, only the aggregate consumption path, faces a moral hazard problem: the payment can depend only on what is observed.

Aïd, Possamaï and Touzi (arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Math. Oper. Res. 2022) cast this as a continuous-time principal–agent problem in which the consumer controls both the drift and the volatility of his consumption, and the producer pays for reductions in both. The volatility channel is what makes the problem new: the classical Holmström–Milgrom model (Econometrica 1987) controls only the drift. The paper uses the general reduction of Cvitanić, Possamaï and Touzi (Finance Stoch. 2018) to optimal contracts with volatility control, and obtains the producer's value in closed form up to a scalar minimisation. This mission formalizes that closed form.

Setting

Fix integers N,d≥0N,d\ge0N,d≥0, cost parameters μ∈(0,∞)N\mu\in(0,\infty)^Nμ∈(0,∞)N and λ∈(0,∞)d\lambda\in(0,\infty)^dλ∈(0,∞)d, nominal volatilities σ∈(0,∞)d\sigma\in(0,\infty)^dσ∈(0,∞)d, effort bounds Amax⁡>0A_{\max}>0Amax​>0 and ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon\in(0,1]ε∈(0,1], risk aversions r,p>0r,p>0r,p>0, a marginal cost of volatility h>0h>0h>0, marginal energy value κ\kappaκ and cost θ\thetaθ with δ:=κ−θ\delta:=\kappa-\thetaδ:=κ−θ, a horizon T>0T>0T>0, an initial consumption X0X_0X0​ and a reservation utility R0<0R_0<0R0​<0. Write μˉ:=∑iμi\bar\mu:=\sum_i\mu_iμˉ​:=∑i​μi​ and x−:=max⁡(0,−x)x^-:=\max(0,-x)x−:=max(0,−x).

Consumption. XXX is the canonical process on Ω=C([0,T],R)\Omega=C([0,T],\mathbb R)Ω=C([0,T],R) with its natural filtration F\mathbb FF. A control ν=(α,β)\nu=(\alpha,\beta)ν=(α,β) is progressively measurable, with αt∈A:=∏i[0,μiAmax⁡]\alpha_t\in A:=\prod_i[0,\mu_iA_{\max}]αt​∈A:=∏i​[0,μi​Amax​] (effort to reduce consumption) and βt∈B:=[ε,1]d\beta_t\in B:=[\varepsilon,1]^dβt​∈B:=[ε,1]d (effort to reduce volatility). Under ν\nuν the consumption follows, in the weak sense,

Xt=X0−∫0tαs⋅1 ds+∫0tσ(βs)⋅dWs,∣σ(b)∣2=∑jσj2bj.X_t=X_0-\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,ds+\int_0^t\sigma(\beta_s)\cdot dW_s,\qquad |\sigma(b)|^2=\sum_j\sigma_j^2b_j .Xt​=X0​−∫0t​αs​⋅1ds+∫0t​σ(βs​)⋅dWs​,∣σ(b)∣2=j∑​σj2​bj​.

Effort costs c(ν)=c1(α)+12c2(β)c(\nu)=c_1(\alpha)+\frac12c_2(\beta)c(ν)=c1​(α)+21​c2​(β) per unit time, with c1(a)=12∑iai2/μic_1(a)=\frac12\sum_ia_i^2/\mu_ic1​(a)=21​∑i​ai2​/μi​ and c2(b)=∑jσj2λj(bj−1−1)c_2(b)=\sum_j\frac{\sigma_j^2}{\lambda_j}(b_j^{-1}-1)c2​(b)=∑j​λj​σj2​​(bj−1​−1).

Criteria. For a payment ξ\xiξ at time TTT, the consumer's criterion is JA=E[−e−r(ξ+∫0T(κXs−c(νs))ds)]J_A=\mathbb E[-e^{-r(\xi+\int_0^T(\kappa X_s-c(\nu_s))ds)}]JA​=E[−e−r(ξ+∫0T​(κXs​−c(νs​))ds)] and the producer's is JP=E[U(−ξ−∫0TθXsds−h2⟨X⟩T)]J_P=\mathbb E[U(-\xi-\int_0^T\theta X_sds-\frac h2\langle X\rangle_T)]JP​=E[U(−ξ−∫0T​θXs​ds−2h​⟨X⟩T​)] with U(x)=−e−pxU(x)=-e^{-px}U(x)=−e−px. Contracts C\mathcal CC are the FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable ξ\xiξ with exponential moments of order m>1m>1m>1 uniformly over the consumer's responses (2.5). The consumer's value is VA(ξ)=sup⁡JAV_A(\xi)=\sup J_AVA​(ξ)=supJA​, and P⋆(ξ)\mathcal P^\star(\xi)P⋆(ξ) is the set of his optimal responses.

Second best. The producer offers ξ\xiξ, the consumer responds optimally, ties are broken in the producer's favour, and participation requires VA(ξ)≥R0V_A(\xi)\ge R_0VA​(ξ)≥R0​:

VSB:=sup⁡ξ∈C, VA(ξ)≥R0 sup⁡P⋆(ξ)JP(ξ,⋅),sup⁡∅=−∞.V^{SB}:=\sup_{\xi\in\mathcal C,\ V_A(\xi)\ge R_0}\ \sup_{\mathcal P^\star(\xi)}J_P(\xi,\cdot),\qquad\sup\emptyset=-\infty .VSB:=ξ∈C, VA​(ξ)≥R0​sup​ P⋆(ξ)sup​JP​(ξ,⋅),sup∅=−∞.

Hamiltonians. Hm(z)=−inf⁡a∈A{a⋅1 z+c1(a)}H_m(z)=-\inf_{a\in A}\{a\cdot\mathbf 1\,z+c_1(a)\}Hm​(z)=−infa∈A​{a⋅1z+c1​(a)} and Hv(γ)=−12inf⁡b∈B{c2(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}H_v(\gamma)=-\frac12\inf_{b\in B}\{c_2(b)-\gamma|\sigma(b)|^2\}Hv​(γ)=−21​infb∈B​{c2​(b)−γ∣σ(b)∣2}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.2 (i)

Assume δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. With qt(z)=h+rz2+p(z−δ(T−t))2q_t(z)=h+rz^2+p(z-\delta(T-t))^2qt​(z)=h+rz2+p(z−δ(T−t))2, L0=−1rlog⁡(−R0)L_0=-\frac1r\log(-R_0)L0​=−r1​log(−R0​),

mSB(t)=12μˉδ2(T−t)2−12inf⁡z∈R{μˉ(z−+δ(T−t))2−2Hv(−qt(z))},m_{SB}(t)=\frac12\bar\mu\delta^2(T-t)^2-\frac12\inf_{z\in\mathbb R}\Big\{\bar\mu\big(z^-+\delta(T-t)\big)^2-2H_v\big(-q_t(z)\big)\Big\},mSB​(t)=21​μˉ​δ2(T−t)2−21​z∈Rinf​{μˉ​(z−+δ(T−t))2−2Hv​(−qt​(z))}, VSB=U(v(0,X0)−L0),v(0,X0)=δTX0+∫0TmSB(s) ds.V^{SB}=U\big(v(0,X_0)-L_0\big),\qquad v(0,X_0)=\delta TX_0+\int_0^Tm_{SB}(s)\,ds .VSB=U(v(0,X0​)−L0​),v(0,X0​)=δTX0​+∫0T​mSB​(s)ds.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1. The consumer's best responses a^i(z)=μi(z−∧Amax⁡)\hat a_i(z)=\mu_i(z^-\wedge A_{\max})a^i​(z)=μi​(z−∧Amax​) and b^j(γ)=(1∧(λjγ−)−1/2)∨ε\hat b_j(\gamma)=(1\wedge(\lambda_j\gamma^-)^{-1/2})\vee\varepsilonb^j​(γ)=(1∧(λj​γ−)−1/2)∨ε attain the infima defining HmH_mHm​ and HvH_vHv​, and
Hm(z)=μˉ(mz−−m22), m=z−∧Amax⁡;Hv(γ)=−12(c^2(γ)−γ∣σ^(γ)∣2).H_m(z)=\bar\mu\big(m z^--\tfrac{m^2}2\big),\ m=z^-\wedge A_{\max};\qquad H_v(\gamma)=-\tfrac12\big(\hat c_2(\gamma)-\gamma|\hat\sigma(\gamma)|^2\big).Hm​(z)=μˉ​(mz−−2m2​), m=z−∧Amax​;Hv​(γ)=−21​(c^2​(γ)−γ∣σ^(γ)∣2).
  1. Lemma A.1. With f0(q,γ)=q∣σ^(γ)∣2+c^2(γ)f_0(q,\gamma)=q|\hat\sigma(\gamma)|^2+\hat c_2(\gamma)f0​(q,γ)=q∣σ^(γ)∣2+c^2​(γ), F0(q):=inf⁡γ≤0f0(q,γ)=f0(q,−q)=−2Hv(−q)F_0(q):=\inf_{\gamma\le0}f_0(q,\gamma)=f_0(q,-q)=-2H_v(-q)F0​(q):=infγ≤0​f0​(q,γ)=f0​(q,−q)=−2Hv​(−q), and F0F_0F0​ is non-decreasing.
  2. Proposition A.4 (ii). A minimiser of z↦F0(h−k+rz2+p(z−y)2)+μˉ(z−+y)2z\mapsto F_0(h-k+rz^2+p(z-y)^2)+\bar\mu(z^-+y)^2z↦F0​(h−k+rz2+p(z−y)2)+μˉ​(z−+y)2 is pr+py\frac p{r+p}yr+pp​y when y≥0y\ge0y≥0, and lies in [y,pr+py][y,\frac p{r+p}y][y,r+pp​y] when y≤0y\le0y≤0.

A companion statement, Corollary 3.1 (i), gives the explicit off-peak payment rates zSB(t)=pr+pδ(T−t)z_{SB}(t)=\frac p{r+p}\delta(T-t)zSB​(t)=r+pp​δ(T−t) and γSB(t)=−h−rpr+pδ2(T−t)2\gamma_{SB}(t)=-h-\frac{rp}{r+p}\delta^2(T-t)^2γSB​(t)=−h−r+prp​δ2(T−t)2 when δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0.

Significance

The closed form reduces an infinite-dimensional contracting problem, a supremum over all path-dependent payments and all consumer responses, to a deterministic one-dimensional minimisation at each time. It is the basis of the paper's comparisons: with the first-best value it measures the cost of moral hazard, and its minimiser gives the price of energy and of responsiveness that the optimal contract charges, which the paper calibrates on Low Carbon London data.

The result is proved on paper. No part of it is machine-checked. A complete formalization would give a checked instance of a continuous-time principal–agent theorem with volatility control. It would also fix, in exact terms, the conventions the paper leaves implicit (weak solutions, the effort cap), and the printed misprints that this mission corrects.

Difficulty

The deterministic milestones are calculus on boxes. The goal is not. The upper bound VSB≤U(v(0,X0)−L0)V^{SB}\le U(v(0,X_0)-L_0)VSB≤U(v(0,X0​)−L0​) must hold for every FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable contract, not only for contracts of a convenient form. The step that fails in a direct attempt is the representation of an arbitrary contract: one needs that every ξ∈C\xi\in\mathcal Cξ∈C inducing an optimal response can be written as YTy0,Z,ΓY_T^{y_0,Z,\Gamma}YTy0​,Z,Γ​, an integral against dXdXdX and d⟨X⟩d\langle X\rangled⟨X⟩ driven by the consumer's continuation certainty equivalent. This is the main theorem of Cvitanić–Possamaï–Touzi (2018) and rests on second-order backward SDEs; it has no counterpart in Mathlib. Restricting the supremum to linear or representable contracts at the outset would assume exactly that theorem. The lower bound needs, for the candidate contract, existence of the consumer's optimal response as a weak solution and a verification argument for the producer's HJB equation.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DemandResponse.SecondBest, and all hypotheses are fields of a structure Params. Conventions:

  • Weak formulation. An admissible pair (ν,P)(\nu,\mathbb P)(ν,P) is a control and a probability measure on C([0,T],R)C([0,T],\mathbb R)C([0,T],R) with X0=X0X_0=X_0X0​=X0​ a.s., under which Xt−X0+∫0tαs⋅1 dsX_t-X_0+\int_0^t\alpha_s\cdot\mathbf 1\,dsXt​−X0​+∫0t​αs​⋅1ds and its square minus ∫0t∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^t|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0t​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds are F\mathbb FF-martingales. This is the martingale problem equivalent to weak solutions of (2.1); the paper deliberately leaves weak solutions informal (footnote 2). The pair, not the law alone, is the admissible object, because the cost depends on ν\nuν.
  • Quadratic variation. ⟨X⟩T\langle X\rangle_T⟨X⟩T​ in JPJ_PJP​ is its almost-sure value ∫0T∣σ(βs)∣2ds\int_0^T|\sigma(\beta_s)|^2ds∫0T​∣σ(βs​)∣2ds.
  • Values. Expected utilities are negated lower Lebesgue integrals, in [−∞,0][-\infty,0][−∞,0]; all suprema are in the extended reals, so the empty supremum is −∞-\infty−∞, as on p. 9.
  • Hamiltonians are defined by their infima, not by the closed forms of Proposition 2.1.
  • Indices are Fin N, Fin d; N=0N=0N=0, d=0d=0d=0 are allowed. b^j(γ)=1\hat b_j(\gamma)=1b^j​(γ)=1 when λjγ−≤1\lambda_j\gamma^-\le1λj​γ−≤1 (the paper's 0−1/2=+∞0^{-1/2}=+\infty0−1/2=+∞).
  • Added hypotheses. ε≤1\varepsilon\le1ε≤1 (B≠∅B\neq\emptysetB=∅), R0<0R_0<0R0​<0 (log⁡(−R0)\log(-R_0)log(−R0​) defined), and for the goal δ−T≤Amax⁡\delta^-T\le A_{\max}δ−T≤Amax​. The paper's closed form is computed with the effort cap removed ("ηA→0\eta_A\to0ηA​→0 as A↗∞A\nearrow\inftyA↗∞", p. 30), and with the capped effort of the model it is correct exactly under this hypothesis.
  • Corrected misprints. −2Hm(−q(z))-2H_m(-q(z))−2Hm​(−q(z)) in mSBm_{SB}mSB​ is read as −2Hv(−q(z))-2H_v(-q(z))−2Hv​(−q(z)); with HmH_mHm​ the infimum is −∞-\infty−∞. The printed Hm(z)=12μˉ(z−∧Amax⁡)2H_m(z)=\frac12\bar\mu(z^-\wedge A_{\max})^2Hm​(z)=21​μˉ​(z−∧Amax​)2 is false for z−>Amax⁡z^->A_{\max}z−>Amax​ and is corrected. "j=1,…,Nj=1,\dots,Nj=1,…,N" for b^\hat bb^ means j=1,…,dj=1,\dots,dj=1,…,d. In Proposition A.4 (ii) the open interval becomes closed, and "for large AAA" is read as ηA≡0\eta_A\equiv0ηA​≡0.

The goal is an equality of extended reals between VSBV^{SB}VSB, defined from the model, and an explicit real number. A formalization that defines VSBV^{SB}VSB over a restricted class of contracts, or with a real-valued supremum that returns 000 on unbounded sets, would trivialize or change it and is not the goal.

Needed infrastructure: continuous-time martingales on the canonical path space (Mathlib has Martingale and progressive measurability), existence of weak solutions with bounded coefficients, a representation theorem for contracts (Cvitanić–Possamaï–Touzi), and a verification theorem for the producer's HJB equation. The weak-formulation layer and the contract representation are reusable for any continuous-time principal–agent model with drift and volatility control. Contributions of any of these pieces, and proofs of the deterministic milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Optimal Electricity Demand Response Contracting with Responsiveness Incentives, arXiv:1810.09063v3, 2019; Mathematics of Operations Research 47 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.09063v3
  • J. Cvitanić, D. Possamaï, N. Touzi, Dynamic programming approach to principal–agent problems, Finance and Stochastics 22 (2018) 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-017-0344-4
  • B. Holmström, P. Milgrom, Aggregation and Linearity in the Provision of Intertemporal Incentives, Econometrica 55 (1987) 303–328. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913238
  • Y. Sannikov, A Continuous-Time Version of the Principal–Agent Problem, Review of Economic Studies 75 (2008) 957–984. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00486.x
  • I. Karatzas, S. Shreve, Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus, 2nd ed., Springer 1991, §5.4 (martingale problem and weak solutions). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0949-2
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem 1: Logarithmic Regret for Two ArmsResearch Paper

Motivation

Thompson Sampling (TS) is the oldest heuristic for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem: it was proposed by Thompson in 1933 (Biometrika 25) and is used in practice for online advertising and recommendation, where it often performs as well as or better than upper-confidence-bound methods (Chapelle and Li, NIPS 2011; Scott 2010). Until 2012 its theoretical guarantees for the frequentist regret were weak: earlier analyses gave only o(T)o(T)o(T) regret in time TTT (Granmo 2010; May, Korda, Lee and Leslie 2011).

Agrawal and Goyal, Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem (arXiv:1111.1797v3, COLT 2012), gave the first logarithmic finite-time bound on the expected regret of TS. This mission formalizes their two-armed result, Theorem 1. A companion mission covers the NNN-armed bound, Theorem 2.

Timeline. Lai and Robbins (1985) proved that every consistent algorithm has regret at least [∑iΔi/D(μi∥μ∗)+o(1)]ln⁡T\big[\sum_i \Delta_i/D(\mu_i\|\mu^*)+o(1)\big]\ln T[∑i​Δi​/D(μi​∥μ∗)+o(1)]lnT. Auer, Cesa-Bianchi and Fischer (2002) gave UCB1 with an O(∑iln⁡T/Δi)O(\sum_i \ln T/\Delta_i)O(∑i​lnT/Δi​) finite-time bound. Agrawal and Goyal (2012) proved O(ln⁡T/Δ+1/Δ3)O(\ln T/\Delta+1/\Delta^3)O(lnT/Δ+1/Δ3) for two-armed TS. Kaufmann, Korda and Munos (ALT 2012) and Agrawal and Goyal (AISTATS 2013) later proved asymptotically optimal bounds for Bernoulli TS.

Setting

There are two arms. Arm i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a fixed, unknown reward distribution DiD_iDi​ supported in [0,1][0,1][0,1], with mean μi\mu_iμi​. Plays of an arm give i.i.d. rewards, independent of the other arm. Arm 1 is the unique optimal arm, μ1>μ2\mu_1>\mu_2μ1​>μ2​, and Δ=μ1−μ2\Delta=\mu_1-\mu_2Δ=μ1​−μ2​ is the gap.

Thompson Sampling for general stochastic bandits (Algorithm 2 of the paper) keeps, for each arm iii, a success count SiS_iSi​ and a failure count FiF_iFi​, both starting at 000. In each round t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,… it

  1. samples, independently for each arm, θi(t)∼Beta(Si+1,Fi+1)\theta_i(t)\sim\mathrm{Beta}(S_i+1,F_i+1)θi​(t)∼Beta(Si​+1,Fi​+1);
  2. plays i(t)=arg⁡max⁡iθi(t)i(t)=\arg\max_i\theta_i(t)i(t)=argmaxi​θi​(t) and observes a reward r~t∼Di(t)\tilde r_t\sim D_{i(t)}r~t​∼Di(t)​;
  3. performs a Bernoulli trial with success probability r~t\tilde r_tr~t​, with outcome rt∈{0,1}r_t\in\{0,1\}rt​∈{0,1};
  4. increments Si(t)S_{i(t)}Si(t)​ if rt=1r_t=1rt​=1 and Fi(t)F_{i(t)}Fi(t)​ otherwise.

ki(t)k_i(t)ki​(t) is the number of plays of arm iii before round ttt. The expected regret in time TTT is

E[R(T)]=E[∑t=1T(μ1−μi(t))],\mathbb E[\mathcal R(T)]=\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T(\mu_1-\mu_{i(t)})\Big],E[R(T)]=E[t=1∑T​(μ1​−μi(t)​)],

the expectation being over the rewards and the algorithm's randomness.

The analysis uses the Beta cdf Fα,βbetaF^{beta}_{\alpha,\beta}Fα,βbeta​, the binomial cdf Fn,pBF^B_{n,p}Fn,pB​, and the random variable X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y): the number of independent Beta(s+1,j−s+1)\mathrm{Beta}(s+1,j-s+1)Beta(s+1,j−s+1) draws made before one exceeds yyy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 3)

There is an absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 such that for every two-armed instance with rewards in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and μ1>μ2\mu_1>\mu_2μ1​>μ2​, and every T≥2T\ge 2T≥2,

E[R(T)]≤C(ln⁡TΔ+1Δ3).\mathbb E[\mathcal R(T)]\le C\Big(\frac{\ln T}{\Delta}+\frac1{\Delta^3}\Big).E[R(T)]≤C(ΔlnT​+Δ31​).

The constant is not fixed numerically: the paper states the theorem in O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) form (footnote 1), and the explicit display it reports on p. 8, 40ln⁡T/Δ+48/Δ3+18Δ40\ln T/\Delta+48/\Delta^3+18\Delta40lnT/Δ+48/Δ3+18Δ, is not the formal claim.

Milestones

  • Fact 1 (p. 12): Fα,βbeta(y)=1−Fα+β−1,yB(α−1)F^{beta}_{\alpha,\beta}(y)=1-F^B_{\alpha+\beta-1,y}(\alpha-1)Fα,βbeta​(y)=1−Fα+β−1,yB​(α−1) for positive integers α,β\alpha,\betaα,β.
  • Lemma 1 (p. 6): E[X(j,s,y)]=1/Fj+1,yB(s)−1\mathbb E[X(j,s,y)]=1/F^B_{j+1,y}(s)-1E[X(j,s,y)]=1/Fj+1,yB​(s)−1.
  • Lemma 6 (p. 13): Hoeffding-type bounds (10)–(11) on binomial cdfs.
  • Fact 2 (p. 13): every median of Binomial(n,p)\mathrm{Binomial}(n,p)Binomial(n,p) is ⌊np⌋\lfloor np\rfloor⌊np⌋ or ⌈np⌉\lceil np\rceil⌈np⌉.
  • Lemma 2 (p. 7): Pr⁡(E2(t))≥1−2/T2\Pr(E_2(t))\ge 1-2/T^2Pr(E2​(t))≥1−2/T2, where E2(t)={θ2(t)≤μ2+Δ/2 or k2(t)<24ln⁡T/Δ2}E_2(t)=\{\theta_2(t)\le\mu_2+\Delta/2\ \text{or}\ k_2(t)<24\ln T/\Delta^2\}E2​(t)={θ2​(t)≤μ2​+Δ/2 or k2​(t)<24lnT/Δ2}.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 7): a three-case bound on E[E[min⁡{X(j,s(j),y),T}∣s(j)]]\mathbb E\big[\mathbb E[\min\{X(j,s(j),y),T\}\mid s(j)]\big]E[E[min{X(j,s(j),y),T}∣s(j)]] for s(j)∼Binomial(j,μ1)s(j)\sim\mathrm{Binomial}(j,\mu_1)s(j)∼Binomial(j,μ1​).
  • Eq. (1) (p. 7): E[k2(T)]≤C(ln⁡T/Δ2+1/Δ4)\mathbb E[k_2(T)]\le C(\ln T/\Delta^2+1/\Delta^4)E[k2​(T)]≤C(lnT/Δ2+1/Δ4).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 shows that TS, a randomized Bayesian heuristic with no explicit confidence bonus, has regret logarithmic in TTT on every two-armed instance, matching the order in TTT of the Lai–Robbins lower bound. The proof introduced a way to control the optimal arm's waiting time between plays through the Beta–Binomial duality, and later analyses of TS reuse that device.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper and has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The platform's existing TS results concern Gaussian TS (Lattimore and Szepesvári, Ch. 36) and Bayesian regret, which are different algorithms or regret notions. A formalization adds a reusable Lean model of Algorithm 2 on [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued rewards, Beta–Binomial facts (Fact 1, Lemma 1), a binomial-median theorem, and binomial Hoeffding bounds. It also produces a proof with a constant that has been checked, since the printed constants contain an arithmetic slip.

Difficulty

The standard UCB argument does not transfer to TS. For UCB, the optimal arm's index exceeds its mean with high probability however often the arm has been played, because the exploration bonus is deterministic; the analysis then only has to count plays of the suboptimal arm until its own index concentrates, after Θ(ln⁡T/Δ2)\Theta(\ln T/\Delta^2)Θ(lnT/Δ2) plays. Under TS the optimal arm's sample θ1(t)\theta_1(t)θ1​(t) is random and, if the arm has been played rarely or its early rewards were poor, it falls below μ2\mu_2μ2​ with constant probability. The optimal arm may then wait a long, random time between plays, and the length of that wait depends on the arm's posterior, which in turn depends on how long it has waited. Counting plays of the suboptimal arm with a union bound over rounds, under the assumption that the optimal arm is already concentrated, therefore does not work; controlling these waiting times is the central difficulty and is where the 1/Δ31/\Delta^31/Δ3 dependence enters.

Formalization scope

  • Model. The instance is the platform's StochasticBandit 2 (a probability measure on R\mathbb RR per arm, mean banditArmMean), with the hypothesis that each reward law gives mass 111 to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Lean arm 0 is the paper's arm 1 and Lean arm 1 the paper's arm 2. Lean rounds are indexed from 000.
  • Algorithm. Algorithm 2 is realized on one probability space with three independent i.i.d. tables: Beta draws W(i,t,a,b)∼Beta(a+1,b+1)W(i,t,a,b)\sim\mathrm{Beta}(a+1,b+1)W(i,t,a,b)∼Beta(a+1,b+1), rewards X(i,t)∼DiX(i,t)\sim D_iX(i,t)∼Di​, and uniforms V(i,t)V(i,t)V(i,t). Round ttt uses θi(t)=W(i,t,Si(t),Fi(t))\theta_i(t)=W(i,t,S_i(t),F_i(t))θi​(t)=W(i,t,Si​(t),Fi​(t)), r~t=X(i(t),t)\tilde r_t=X(i(t),t)r~t​=X(i(t),t) and rt=1{V(i(t),t)<r~t}r_t=\mathbf 1\{V(i(t),t)<\tilde r_t\}rt​=1{V(i(t),t)<r~t​}. Ties in the arg max go to the smaller index (a null event).
  • Values. Regret and expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y)X(j,s,y) is N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}-valued, so Lemma 1 at y=1y=1y=1 reads ∞=∞\infty=\infty∞=∞, as in the paper.
  • O(·). The paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) (footnote 1: f≤cgf\le cgf≤cg for n≥n0n\ge n_0n≥n0​) is stated with one universal constant C>0C>0C>0, quantified before the instance, the means and the horizon, for all T≥2T\ge 2T≥2. Eq. (1) is stated the same way, without its printed numerals.
  • Not trivial. The goal is about Algorithm 2 itself, with fresh Beta samples, fresh rewards and the Bernoulli coin. A statement about "any policy satisfying Lemma 2's event bound", or one whose constant depends on Δ\DeltaΔ, the reward laws or TTT, would not be Theorem 1.
  • Edge cases. μ1<1\mu_1<1μ1​<1 is assumed only in Lemma 3, where the paper's RRR and DDD require it. It is not a hypothesis of the goal.
  • Infrastructure. A complete proof needs: inverse-transform or order-statistics facts for Beta laws (Fact 1); geometric expectations; Hoeffding's inequality for sums of Bernoulli variables (Mathlib has Hoeffding/Azuma); the binomial median theorem (Jogdeo–Samuels; Kaas–Buhrman); and the coupling from the reward tables to the per-arm i.i.d. output stacks the paper reasons with. Fact 1, Lemma 6 and Fact 2 are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone are welcome, and so is a direct proof of the regret bound with an explicit constant.

Selected references

  • S. Agrawal and N. Goyal, Analysis of Thompson Sampling for the Multi-armed Bandit Problem, COLT 2012; arXiv:1111.1797v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.1797
  • W. R. Thompson, On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples, Biometrika 25 (1933) 285–294. https://doi.org/10.2307/2332286
  • T. L. Lai and H. Robbins, Asymptotically efficient adaptive allocation rules, Advances in Applied Mathematics 6 (1985) 4–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-8858(85)90002-8
  • P. Auer, N. Cesa-Bianchi and P. Fischer, Finite-time analysis of the multiarmed bandit problem, Machine Learning 47 (2002) 235–256. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013689704352
  • K. Jogdeo and S. M. Samuels, Monotone convergence of binomial probabilities and a generalization of Ramanujan's equation, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 39 (1968) 1191–1195. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177698243
  • R. Kaas and J. M. Buhrman, Mean, median and mode in binomial distributions, Statistica Neerlandica 34 (1980) 13–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.1980.tb00681.x
  • O. Chapelle and L. Li, An empirical evaluation of Thompson Sampling, NIPS 2011. https://papers.nips.cc/paper/4321-an-empirical-evaluation-of-thompson-sampling
11 thms2 active usersReviewed
Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Fundamentals of Queueing Theory I: Foster's Criterion for Positive RecurrenceTextbook

Motivation

Almost every model in queueing theory is analysed through a Markov chain. The number of customers in an M/M/c queue is a continuous-time birth–death chain; the number left behind by departing customers of an M/G/1 queue is a discrete-parameter chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} (the imbedded Markov chain); networks of queues are chains on vectors of queue lengths. Before any steady-state formula (Erlang's formulas, the Pollaczek–Khintchine formula, product forms) can be used, one has to know that the chain has a steady state at all: that it is positive recurrent, so that a stationary distribution exists and equals the limiting distribution.

Chapter 1 of Gross, Shortle, Thompson and Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory (4th ed., Wiley 2008, DOI 10.1002/9781118625651), collects the two ingredients the rest of the book stands on: the Poisson process with its exponential interarrival times (§§1.7–1.8), and the classification theory of discrete-parameter Markov chains (§1.9), ending with Foster's criterion (Theorem 1.2), a sufficient condition for positive recurrence in terms of a drift inequality. The criterion goes back to F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Ann. Math. Statist. 24 (1953) (DOI 10.1214/aoms/1177728976), and is the ancestor of the Foster–Lyapunov method used for stability of queueing networks and stochastic systems.

This mission is the first of a series formalizing the book chapter by chapter.

Setting

A homogeneous discrete-parameter Markov chain on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} is given by a transition matrix P={pij}P=\{p_{ij}\}P={pij​} with pij≥0p_{ij}\ge0pij​≥0 and ∑jpij=1\sum_j p_{ij}=1∑j​pij​=1 for every iii. The mmm-step transition probabilities pij(m)p_{ij}^{(m)}pij(m)​ are the entries of PmP^mPm.

The first-passage probability fij(n)f_{ij}^{(n)}fij(n)​ is the probability that the chain started in iii enters jjj for the first time at step n≥1n\ge1n≥1; for i=ji=ji=j it is the probability of first return at step nnn. The return probability is fjj=∑n≥1fjj(n)f_{jj}=\sum_{n\ge1}f_{jj}^{(n)}fjj​=∑n≥1​fjj(n)​ and the mean recurrence time is mjj=∑n≥1nfjj(n)∈[0,∞]m_{jj}=\sum_{n\ge1}n f_{jj}^{(n)}\in[0,\infty]mjj​=∑n≥1​nfjj(n)​∈[0,∞]. A state is positive recurrent if fjj=1f_{jj}=1fjj​=1 and mjj<∞m_{jj}<\inftymjj​<∞; the chain is positive recurrent if every state is.

The chain is irreducible if for every pair of states (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) some pij(n)p_{ij}^{(n)}pij(n)​ is positive, and aperiodic if for every state kkk the greatest common divisor of {n≥1:pkk(n)>0}\{n\ge1:p_{kk}^{(n)}>0\}{n≥1:pkk(n)​>0} is 111. A stationary distribution is a probability vector π\piπ with π=πP\pi=\pi Pπ=πP, i.e. πj=∑iπipij\pi_j=\sum_i\pi_i p_{ij}πj​=∑i​πi​pij​ for every jjj.

For the Poisson part, T0,T1,…T_0,T_1,\dotsT0​,T1​,… are independent interarrival times, each exponentially distributed with rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; the arrival epochs are Sn=T0+⋯+Tn−1S_n=T_0+\dots+T_{n-1}Sn​=T0​+⋯+Tn−1​, and N(t)=#{n≥1:Sn≤t}N(t)=\#\{n\ge1:S_n\le t\}N(t)=#{n≥1:Sn​≤t} counts the arrivals in [0,t][0,t][0,t].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2 (Foster's criterion)

An irreducible, aperiodic chain is positive recurrent if there exist xj≥0x_j\ge0xj​≥0 with

∑j=0∞pijxj≤xi−1(i≠0),∑j=0∞p0jxj<∞.\sum_{j=0}^\infty p_{ij}x_j\le x_i-1\quad(i\ne0),\qquad\sum_{j=0}^\infty p_{0j}x_j<\infty .j=0∑∞​pij​xj​≤xi​−1(i=0),j=0∑∞​p0j​xj​<∞.

Milestones: the Markov chain theorems

  • Theorem 1.1(a). In an irreducible, positive recurrent chain, πj=1/mjj\pi_j=1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​ is a stationary distribution, and it is the only one.
  • Theorem 1.1(c). If moreover the chain is aperiodic and all moments of π\piπ are finite, then lim⁡m→∞pij(m)=πj\lim_{m\to\infty}p_{ij}^{(m)}=\pi_jlimm→∞​pij(m)​=πj​ for all i,ji,ji,j.

Milestones: the Poisson process and the exponential distribution

  • Eqs. (1.11)–(1.14). The unique solution of p0′=−λp0p_0'=-\lambda p_0p0′​=−λp0​, pn′=−λpn+λpn−1p_n'=-\lambda p_n+\lambda p_{n-1}pn′​=−λpn​+λpn−1​ with p0(0)=1p_0(0)=1p0​(0)=1, pn(0)=0p_n(0)=0pn​(0)=0 is pn(t)=(λt)ne−λt/n!p_n(t)=(\lambda t)^n e^{-\lambda t}/n!pn​(t)=(λt)ne−λt/n!.
  • Eq. (1.15). With exponential interarrival times,
Pr⁡{N(t)≤n}=∫t∞λ(λx)nn!e−λxdx=∑i=0n(λt)ie−λti!.\Pr\{N(t)\le n\}=\int_t^\infty\frac{\lambda(\lambda x)^n}{n!}e^{-\lambda x}dx=\sum_{i=0}^n\frac{(\lambda t)^ie^{-\lambda t}}{i!}.Pr{N(t)≤n}=∫t∞​n!λ(λx)n​e−λxdx=i=0∑n​i!(λt)ie−λt​.
  • Eq. (1.16). Given N(L)=kN(L)=kN(L)=k, the arrival epochs have density k!/Lkk!/L^kk!/Lk on {0<t1<⋯<tk<L}\{0<t_1<\dots<t_k<L\}{0<t1​<⋯<tk​<L}.
  • Eq. (1.17) and its converse (p.21). The exponential law satisfies Pr⁡{T≤t1∣T≥t0}=Pr⁡{0≤T≤t1−t0}\Pr\{T\le t_1\mid T\ge t_0\}=\Pr\{0\le T\le t_1-t_0\}Pr{T≤t1​∣T≥t0​}=Pr{0≤T≤t1​−t0​}, and it is the only continuous distribution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) that does.
  • Nonhomogeneous Poisson law (p.22). With a continuous rate λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t) the forward equations have the unique solution pn(t)=e−m(t)m(t)n/n!p_n(t)=e^{-m(t)}m(t)^n/n!pn​(t)=e−m(t)m(t)n/n!, m(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsm(t)=\int_0^t\lambda(s)\,dsm(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.

Significance

Foster's criterion reduces positive recurrence, a statement about return times, to exhibiting one test function xxx with negative drift outside a single state. In the book it is the tool that establishes the existence of steady state for imbedded chains of the M/G/1 and G/M/1 queues (Chapter 5); its generalizations are the standard stability proofs for queueing networks. Theorem 1.1 then supplies what positive recurrence buys: the stationary distribution exists, is unique, equals 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​, and is the limit of the transition probabilities. The Poisson results justify the "Markovian" arrivals and services of Chapters 2–4.

All of these results are classical and proved in the literature; the book states Theorems 1.1 and 1.2 without proof. The Prove2Me platform already holds machine-checked versions of related Markov chain theorems in other missions (Levin–Peres–Wilmer's and Durrett's countable-chain convergence theorems), stated with different definitions and hypotheses. What this mission adds is a formal development in the book's own terms — first-passage probabilities fjj(n)f_{jj}^{(n)}fjj(n)​, mean recurrence times mjjm_{jj}mjj​, gcd periodicity — on which the later missions of the series (imbedded chains, birth–death processes) can build, together with a formal proof of Foster's criterion, which is not on the platform.

Difficulty

For Foster's criterion the natural first step, taking expectations of the drift inequality along the chain, only shows that the expected value of xxx decreases while the chain stays away from 000. Turning that into a bound on the expected return time to 000 requires an optional-stopping or telescoping argument over a random time, with the value xxx possibly unbounded, and a separate argument that positive recurrence of state 000 propagates to all states of an irreducible chain. The book's hypotheses include aperiodicity, which the argument does not use.

For Theorem 1.1, identifying the stationary distribution with 1/mjj1/m_{jj}1/mjj​ requires relating the matrix powers PnP^nPn to the first-passage probabilities (a renewal decomposition), and uniqueness over countably many states needs care with infinite sums. For the Poisson results, the difficulty is measure-theoretic: the distribution of the sum of n+1n+1n+1 exponential variables, and conditioning on the event {N(L)=k}\{N(L)=k\}{N(L)=k} for the order-statistics property.

Formalization scope

States are natural numbers; the transition matrix is a real function p:N×N→Rp:\mathbb N\times\mathbb N\to\mathbb Rp:N×N→R with nonnegative entries and rows summing to one (as a convergent series). The return probability and the mean recurrence time are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so null recurrence (mjj=∞m_{jj}=\inftymjj​=∞) is representable. Irreducibility is the per-pair notion. Stationary equations are stated componentwise with convergent series.

In Foster's criterion the series ∑jpijxj\sum_j p_{ij}x_j∑j​pij​xj​ are required to converge for every iii, which is the book's condition ∑jp0jxj<∞\sum_j p_{0j}x_j<\infty∑j​p0j​xj​<∞ together with the finiteness implicit in the inequalities for i≠0i\ne0i=0; xxx is real-valued and nonnegative. Dropping the convergence requirement would let a divergent row series (whose Lean sum is 000) satisfy the inequality vacuously; allowing xj=∞x_j=\inftyxj​=∞ would make the hypothesis trivially satisfiable. Neither is permitted.

The closed forms stated explicitly are: πj=1/mjj\pi_j=1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​ (Theorem 1.1(a), with both existence and uniqueness), the Poisson probabilities (λt)ne−λt/n!(\lambda t)^ne^{-\lambda t}/n!(λt)ne−λt/n! (1.14), the Erlang tail integral and the Poisson CDF (1.15), the density k!/Lkk!/L^kk!/Lk (1.16), and e−m(t)m(t)n/n!e^{-m(t)}m(t)^n/n!e−m(t)m(t)n/n! for the nonhomogeneous law. Equations (1.14) and the nonhomogeneous law are stated as "solves the equations with the initial conditions if and only if equals the closed form", so both existence and uniqueness are asserted.

The Poisson results use random variables on a probability space, with Mathlib's expMeasure for the exponential law and cond for conditional probability. The derivation of the forward equations from the o(Δt)o(\Delta t)o(Δt) axioms of §1.7 is not formalized; the Poisson law is reached from the equations and, separately, from exponential interarrival times.

Not formalized: Theorem 1.1(b) and the word "ergodic" in 1.1(c), which rest on the book's informal notion of ergodicity; Theorem 1.3, whose phrase "for Theorem 1.1 to be valid" for a continuous-time chain is not pinned down.

The Markov chain definitions are reusable by every later mission that studies an imbedded chain. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and supporting lemmas (Chapman–Kolmogorov, renewal decomposition of pjj(n)p_{jj}^{(n)}pjj(n)​, class properties of recurrence).

Selected references

  • D. Gross, J. F. Shortle, J. M. Thompson, C. M. Harris, Fundamentals of Queueing Theory, 4th ed., Wiley, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625651
  • F. G. Foster, On the stochastic matrices associated with certain queuing processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 24 (1953), 355–360. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728976
11 thms2 active usersReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design XI: Optimal Sequential Screening by Option ContractsTextbook

Motivation

Many sales are contracted before the buyer knows what the good is worth to her. An airline sells a ticket months before the trip, a hotel sells a refundable or non-refundable room before the traveller's plans are settled, and a supplier signs a capacity contract before demand is realised. At the time of contracting the buyer holds some private information about her future valuation (how likely she is to travel), and after contracting she learns more (whether she actually travels). Sequential screening is the mechanism design problem of a seller facing such a buyer.

The chapter formalized here, Daniel Krähmer and Roland Strausz's Dynamic Mechanism Design (Chapter 11 of Börgers' textbook), develops the problem along two lines. The first is dynamic private information: one sale, two rounds of private information. The second is dynamic allocations: repeated sales, one fixed valuation.

Timeline:

  • Baron and Besanko (1984) show that dynamic allocations with static information produce no real dynamics in the optimal mechanism.
  • Courty and Li (2000, Review of Economic Studies) solve the sequential screening problem and show that the optimal mechanism is a menu of option contracts.
  • Esö and Szentes (2007) decompose the buyer's information into initial and additional information, show that the seller can extract the additional information at no cost, and derive the optimal multi-buyer mechanism, the handicap auction.
  • Krähmer and Strausz (2011, 2014), cited in the chapter's problems (notes 2–3, p.237), show that the conclusions depend on the model's assumptions; with discrete ex ante types the privacy of the additional information can cost the seller (Problem 11.5(c), p.233).

Setting

A seller sells one indivisible good. Before contracting, the buyer privately observes her ex ante type τ∈[τ‾,τˉ]\tau\in[\underline\tau,\bar\tau]τ∈[τ​,τˉ], with distribution function GGG and density g>0g>0g>0. After accepting the mechanism she privately observes her ex post type θ∈[θ‾,θˉ]\theta\in[\underline\theta,\bar\theta]θ∈[θ​,θˉ], 0≤θ‾<θˉ0\le\underline\theta<\bar\theta0≤θ​<θˉ, which is her valuation. Conditionally on τ\tauτ it has distribution function F(θ∣τ)F(\theta\mid\tau)F(θ∣τ) and density f(θ∣τ)>0f(\theta\mid\tau)>0f(θ∣τ)>0. Both FFF and fff are continuously differentiable in τ\tauτ, ∣∂F/∂τ∣<K|\partial F/\partial\tau|<K∣∂F/∂τ∣<K, and higher τ\tauτ is good news in the sense of first-order stochastic dominance: ∂F(θ∣τ)/∂τ<0\partial F(\theta\mid\tau)/\partial\tau<0∂F(θ∣τ)/∂τ<0 for θ∈(θ‾,θˉ)\theta\in(\underline\theta,\bar\theta)θ∈(θ​,θˉ).

A direct mechanism is a pair q(τ,θ)∈[0,1]q(\tau,\theta)\in[0,1]q(τ,θ)∈[0,1], t(τ,θ)∈Rt(\tau,\theta)\in\mathbb Rt(τ,θ)∈R. The buyer first reports τ\tauτ, then θ\thetaθ. Write u(τ,θ)=θq(τ,θ)−t(τ,θ)u(\tau,\theta)=\theta q(\tau,\theta)-t(\tau,\theta)u(τ,θ)=θq(τ,θ)−t(τ,θ), U^(τ′∣τ)=∫u(τ′,θ^)f(θ^∣τ) dθ^\hat U(\tau'\mid\tau)=\int u(\tau',\hat\theta)f(\hat\theta\mid\tau)\,d\hat\thetaU^(τ′∣τ)=∫u(τ′,θ^)f(θ^∣τ)dθ^ and U(τ)=U^(τ∣τ)U(\tau)=\hat U(\tau\mid\tau)U(τ)=U^(τ∣τ). The mechanism is incentive-compatible if truth about θ\thetaθ is optimal after every report of τ\tauτ, and truth about τ\tauτ is optimal against every subsequent reporting function θr\theta_rθr​. It is individually rational if U(τ)≥0U(\tau)\ge0U(τ)≥0 for all τ\tauτ. The seller maximizes expected revenue ∫ ⁣ ⁣∫t f g\int\!\!\int t\,f\,g∫∫tfg. The virtual valuation is

ψ(τ,θ)=θ+1−G(τ)g(τ) ∂F(θ∣τ)/∂τf(θ∣τ),\psi(\tau,\theta)=\theta+\frac{1-G(\tau)}{g(\tau)}\,\frac{\partial F(\theta\mid\tau)/\partial\tau}{f(\theta\mid\tau)} ,ψ(τ,θ)=θ+g(τ)1−G(τ)​f(θ∣τ)∂F(θ∣τ)/∂τ​,

and Assumption 11.1 requires ψ\psiψ to be increasing in τ\tauτ and θ\thetaθ. The exercise price is p(τ)=min⁡{θ^∣ψ(τ,θ^)≥0}p(\tau)=\min\{\hat\theta\mid\psi(\tau,\hat\theta)\ge0\}p(τ)=min{θ^∣ψ(τ,θ^)≥0}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 11.8 (optimal sequential screening)

Under Assumption 11.1 the optimal mechanism is

q∗(τ,θ)=1[θ≥p(τ)],t∗(τ,θ)=t0(τ)+p(τ) 1[θ≥p(τ)],q^*(\tau,\theta)=\mathbf 1[\theta\ge p(\tau)],\qquad t^*(\tau,\theta)=t_0(\tau)+p(\tau)\,\mathbf 1[\theta\ge p(\tau)],q∗(τ,θ)=1[θ≥p(τ)],t∗(τ,θ)=t0​(τ)+p(τ)1[θ≥p(τ)],

where t0t_0t0​ is the expression of Proposition 11.5 for q∗q^*q∗, and the lowest type pays

t(τ‾,θ‾)=∫p(τ‾)θˉθ^f(θ^∣τ‾) dθ^−p(τ‾)[1−F(p(τ‾)∣τ‾)]+θ‾q∗(τ‾,θ‾).t(\underline\tau,\underline\theta)=\int_{p(\underline\tau)}^{\bar\theta}\hat\theta f(\hat\theta\mid\underline\tau)\,d\hat\theta-p(\underline\tau)\bigl[1-F(p(\underline\tau)\mid\underline\tau)\bigr]+\underline\theta q^*(\underline\tau,\underline\theta).t(τ​,θ​)=∫p(τ​)θˉ​θ^f(θ^∣τ​)dθ^−p(τ​)[1−F(p(τ​)∣τ​)]+θ​q∗(τ​,θ​).

The goal asserts that this mechanism is incentive-compatible, individually rational and optimal. It also characterizes all optimal mechanisms: an incentive-compatible, individually rational mechanism is optimal if and only if q=q∗q=q^*q=q∗ almost everywhere off {ψ=0}\{\psi=0\}{ψ=0} and U(τ‾)=0U(\underline\tau)=0U(τ​)=0. When {ψ=0}\{\psi=0\}{ψ=0} is null, this becomes q=q∗q=q^*q=q∗ and t=t∗t=t^*t=t∗ almost everywhere.

Milestones

The path to the goal, in the book's order:

  • the dynamic revelation principle (Proposition 11.1);
  • the reduction of incentive compatibility to two families of inequalities (Proposition 11.2);
  • the ex post characterization (Proposition 11.3);
  • monotonicity and absolute continuity of UUU (Lemma 11.1);
  • the envelope formula U′(τ)=−∫q(τ,θ^) ∂F(θ^∣τ)/∂τ dθ^U'(\tau)=-\int q(\tau,\hat\theta)\,\partial F(\hat\theta\mid\tau)/\partial\tau\,d\hat\thetaU′(τ)=−∫q(τ,θ^)∂F(θ^∣τ)/∂τdθ^ (Proposition 11.4);
  • the transfer formula (Proposition 11.5);
  • sufficiency of monotone allocation rules (Proposition 11.6);
  • individual rationality at τ‾\underline\tauτ​ (Proposition 11.7).

Three extensions follow. Propositions 11.9 and 11.10 show that the privacy of the additional information γ=F(θ∣τ)\gamma=F(\theta\mid\tau)γ=F(θ∣τ) costs the seller nothing. Proposition 11.11 gives the optimal mechanism with several buyers. Proposition 11.12 shows that with dynamic allocations and a fixed valuation, repeating the static posted price is optimal.

Significance

The result gives a practical rule: sell an option. Ex ante type τ\tauτ pays a fee t0(τ)t_0(\tau)t0​(τ) for the right to buy later at the exercise price p(τ)p(\tau)p(τ), and ppp decreases in τ\tauτ. This explains refund and cancellation menus in advance-purchase markets. Proposition 11.10 adds that information the buyer receives after contracting generates no rents under Assumption 11.1. A seller therefore gains from contracting early and from disclosing information after contracting. Proposition 11.12 shows that, under full commitment, a monopolist gains nothing from responding to past purchases.

On the formal side, the results are proved in the literature and in the book, but none of them is machine-checked. The mission produces a verified envelope theorem in a two-dimensional type space where incentive compatibility does not imply monotonicity. It also produces a verified revenue-equivalence formula for sequential mechanisms, and the first verified optimal-mechanism results with dynamic information.

Difficulty

The static argument of Chapter 2 does not carry over directly. Incentive compatibility with respect to τ\tauτ does not make qqq increasing in τ\tauτ. The buyer's first-period utility is an expectation over a whole schedule q(τ′,⋅)q(\tau',\cdot)q(τ′,⋅), so single crossing has no bite. The characterization therefore splits into necessary conditions (the envelope formula in τ\tauτ, which needs Lipschitz continuity of UUU from the bound KKK) and a sufficient condition (monotonicity in both arguments, via first-order stochastic dominance), and the two meet only under Assumption 11.1.

Definition 11.2(ii) quantifies over all off-path reporting functions. The revelation principle does not remove them, so Proposition 11.2 is needed before any envelope argument applies.

Pointwise maximization of the virtual surplus pins down qqq only where ψ≠0\psi\ne0ψ=0 and only almost everywhere. The optimal mechanism is therefore not unique in the pointwise sense the page states.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. F(θ∣τ)F(\theta\mid\tau)F(θ∣τ) is F θ τ and q(τ,θ)q(\tau,\theta)q(τ,θ) is q τ θ. Functions are total on R\mathbb RR or R2\mathbb R^2R2, and conditions quantify over the type intervals only. ∂F/∂τ\partial F/\partial\tau∂F/∂τ and ∂f/∂τ\partial f/\partial\tau∂f/∂τ are fields pinned by HasDerivWithinAt on [τ‾,τˉ][\underline\tau,\bar\tau][τ​,τˉ].
  • Measurability. The book omits all measurability. Here the densities are jointly measurable, mechanisms are admissible (measurable on the type rectangle, q∈[0,1]q\in[0,1]q∈[0,1]), and reporting functions are measurable. In the observable-γ\gammaγ model each t~(τ,⋅)\tilde t(\tau,\cdot)t~(τ,⋅) is integrable on [0,1][0,1][0,1], and in the several-buyer model each payment tit_iti​ is integrable against the distribution of the type profile, so that expected utilities and expected revenue are genuine integrals.
  • Revenue and a.e. Revenue is the integral of ttt against the joint law with density g(τ)f(θ∣τ)g(\tau)f(\theta\mid\tau)g(τ)f(θ∣τ), and "almost everywhere" refers to that law.
  • Corrected necessity. The page's pointwise "if and only if" in Propositions 11.8 and 11.11 is corrected. The explicit optimal mechanism is kept, with the formulas (11.10), (11.11), (11.12) and t0t_0t0​ of Proposition 11.5. Necessity is stated almost everywhere and off {ψ=0}\{\psi=0\}{ψ=0}, and, for several buyers, off ties between virtual valuations.
  • Regularity. Propositions 11.9 and 11.10 assume fff and ∂F/∂τ\partial F/\partial\tau∂F/∂τ continuous in (τ,θ)(\tau,\theta)(τ,θ), the regularity the book invokes on p.217 to differentiate F−1(γ∣τ)F^{-1}(\gamma\mid\tau)F−1(γ∣τ).
  • Exercise price. p(τ)p(\tau)p(τ) is the infimum of {θ^∣ψ(τ,θ^)≥0}\{\hat\theta\mid\psi(\tau,\hat\theta)\ge0\}{θ^∣ψ(τ,θ^)≥0}.

Ruled out. Stating only that the cutoff mechanism is incentive-compatible and individually rational, or only that it beats posted prices, would trivialize the goal. The goal asserts optimality among all admissible incentive-compatible, individually rational sequential mechanisms with randomized allocations, together with the explicit fee t0t_0t0​ and (11.12).

Infrastructure. A complete development needs envelope theorems for suprema of equi-differentiable families, integration by parts with absolutely continuous functions, differentiation under the integral sign, and change of variables γ=F(θ∣τ)\gamma=F(\theta\mid\tau)γ=F(θ∣τ). The single-buyer lemmas (Propositions 11.2–11.7) are reusable for the multi-buyer case through the interim mechanism (Qi,Ti)(Q_i,T_i)(Qi​,Ti​). Proofs of any milestone, and sorry-free lemmas on the definitions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Krähmer and R. Strausz, Dynamic Mechanism Design, Chapter 11 in T. Börgers, An Introduction to the Theory of Mechanism Design, Oxford University Press, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199734023.001.0001
  • P. Courty and H. Li, Sequential Screening, Review of Economic Studies 67 (2000) 697–717. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-937X.00150
  • P. Eső and B. Szentes, Optimal Information Disclosure in Auctions and the Handicap Auction, Review of Economic Studies 74 (2007) 705–731. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2007.00438.x
  • D. P. Baron and D. Besanko, Regulation and Information in a Continuing Relationship, Information Economics and Policy 1 (1984) 267–302.
18 thms2 active usersReviewed
Calculus of VariationsControl TheoryDynamic Programming+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Bellman's Dynamic Programming VII: Convergence of Discrete Approximations in the Calculus of VariationsTextbook

Motivation

Chapter IX of Richard Bellman's Dynamic Programming (Princeton University Press, 1957; Princeton Landmarks edition 2010, DOI 10.2307/j.ctv1nxcw0f) recasts problems of the calculus of variations with constraints as dynamic programming processes. A variational problem with an inequality constraint on the control, such as 0≤y≤x0 \le y \le x0≤y≤x, is awkward for the classical Euler–Lagrange theory: the optimal control switches between the constraint boundary and the interior, and the number and location of the switches are unknown in advance. Bellman's proposal is to replace the continuous problem by a discrete-time one and to solve that by the recurrence relations of dynamic programming, a procedure he describes as the more reliable computational one "in cases treated to date" (§ 11, p. 260).

That proposal is sound only if the discrete values converge to the continuous value as the time step goes to zero. Chapter IX states one such convergence result, Theorem 2 of § 12, and proves it through an Euler-scheme error estimate. The same chapter works through an example (§§ 10–11) whose discrete version is described by Theorem 1. Both are the subject of this mission. The convergence of time-discretized dynamic programming to the continuous value function has since become a standard topic of numerical optimal control (for example the semi-Lagrangian schemes analysed by Capuzzo-Dolcetta and Falcone), and Bellman's § 12 is an early rigorous instance of it.

Setting

A state x(t)≥0x(t) \ge 0x(t)≥0 evolves on a horizon [0,T][0, T][0,T] under a control y(t)y(t)y(t) with 0≤y≤x0 \le y \le x0≤y≤x, a running reward F(x,y)F(x, y)F(x,y) and dynamics

dxdt=G(x,y),x(0)=c.\frac{dx}{dt} = G(x, y), \qquad x(0) = c .dtdx​=G(x,y),x(0)=c.

Writing y=φxy = \varphi xy=φx with a fractional control 0≤φ≤10 \le \varphi \le 10≤φ≤1 turns FFF and GGG into F~(x,φ)=F(x,φx)\tilde F(x, \varphi) = F(x, \varphi x)F~(x,φ)=F(x,φx) and G~(x,φ)=G(x,φx)\tilde G(x, \varphi) = G(x, \varphi x)G~(x,φ)=G(x,φx) (phiForm). The continuous value is

f(c,T)=sup⁡φ∫0TF~(x(t),φ(t)) dt,f(c, T) = \sup_{\varphi} \int_0^T \tilde F(x(t), \varphi(t))\, dt,f(c,T)=φsup​∫0T​F~(x(t),φ(t))dt,

over measurable φ\varphiφ with values in [0,1][0, 1][0,1], where xxx solves x(t)=c+∫0tG~(x(s),φ(s)) dsx(t) = c + \int_0^t \tilde G(x(s), \varphi(s))\,dsx(t)=c+∫0t​G~(x(s),φ(s))ds on [0,T][0, T][0,T] (IsTrajectory, contValue).

For n=1,2,…n = 1, 2, \dotsn=1,2,… the discrete problem uses step 1/n1/n1/n and N=⌊Tn⌋N = \lfloor Tn \rfloorN=⌊Tn⌋ steps (horizonSteps): for φ0,…,φN∈[0,1]\varphi_0, \dots, \varphi_N \in [0, 1]φ0​,…,φN​∈[0,1],

x0=c,xk+1=xk+G~(xk,φk)n,JN({φk},n)=∑k=0NF~(xk,φk)n,x_0 = c, \quad x_{k+1} = x_k + \frac{\tilde G(x_k, \varphi_k)}{n}, \qquad J_N(\{\varphi_k\}, n) = \sum_{k=0}^{N} \frac{\tilde F(x_k, \varphi_k)}{n},x0​=c,xk+1​=xk​+nG~(xk​,φk​)​,JN​({φk​},n)=k=0∑N​nF~(xk​,φk​)​,

and f(c,T,n)=max⁡JNf(c, T, n) = \max J_Nf(c,T,n)=maxJN​ (eulerTraj, discretePayoff, discreteValue). A discrete control defines the step control φ(t)=φk\varphi(t) = \varphi_kφ(t)=φk​ on k/n≤t<(k+1)/nk/n \le t < (k+1)/nk/n≤t<(k+1)/n (stepControl).

The example of §§ 10–11 has a gain function bbb with b(0)=0b(0) = 0b(0)=0, b′(0)=∞b'(0) = \inftyb′(0)=∞, b′>0b' > 0b′>0, b′(y)→0b'(y) \to 0b′(y)→0 as y→∞y \to \inftyy→∞, b′′<0b'' < 0b′′<0 (IsGainFunction; b(y)=y1/2b(y) = y^{1/2}b(y)=y1/2 is one), and value functions (uSeq)

u0(c)=c,uN+1(c)=max⁡0≤v≤c [c−v+uN(c+b(v))].u_0(c) = c, \qquad u_{N+1}(c) = \max_{0 \le v \le c}\,\bigl[c - v + u_N(c + b(v))\bigr].u0​(c)=c,uN+1​(c)=0≤v≤cmax​[c−v+uN​(c+b(v))].

Formalization targets

Goal: Chapter IX, Theorem 2 (corrected)

Assume (11): (a) FFF and GGG have continuous second partial derivatives; (b) px≤G(x,y)≤qx+rpx \le G(x, y) \le qx + rpx≤G(x,y)≤qx+r for x>0x > 0x>0, 0≤y≤x0 \le y \le x0≤y≤x; (c) Gy>0G_y > 0Gy​>0 throughout that region, or Gy<0G_y < 0Gy​<0 throughout. Then for all c≥0c \ge 0c≥0, T>0T > 0T>0, the set of continuous payoffs is nonempty and bounded above, and

lim⁡n→∞f(c,T,n)=f(c,T).\lim_{n \to \infty} f(c, T, n) = f(c, T).n→∞lim​f(c,T,n)=f(c,T).

Milestones

  1. Chapter IX, Theorem 1: the structure of uNu_NuN​. There are vN(c)v_N(c)vN​(c) and thresholds cNc_NcN​ with vNv_NvN​ decreasing in ccc, vN+1>vNv_{N+1} > v_NvN+1​>vN​, cNc_NcN​ the unique fixed point of vNv_NvN​ with cN+1>cNc_{N+1} > c_NcN+1​>cN​, uN(c)=uN−1(c+b(c))u_N(c) = u_{N-1}(c + b(c))uN​(c)=uN−1​(c+b(c)) for c≤cNc \le c_Nc≤cN​, uN(c)=c−vN(c)+uN−1(c+b(vN(c)))u_N(c) = c - v_N(c) + u_{N-1}(c + b(v_N(c)))uN​(c)=c−vN​(c)+uN−1​(c+b(vN​(c))) for c≥cNc \ge c_Nc≥cN​, and uN′≥uN−1′u_N' \ge u_{N-1}'uN′​≥uN−1′​.
  2. § 12, Lemma (corrected): for GGG Lipschitz on [m,M]×[0,1][m, M] \times [0, 1][m,M]×[0,1], the Euler states with a step control are within κ/n\kappa / nκ/n of the exact solution on [0,T][0, T][0,T].
  3. Eq. (12.13): ∣J(φ)−JN({φk},n)∣≤B′/n|J(\varphi) - J_N(\{\varphi_k\}, n)| \le B'/n∣J(φ)−JN​({φk​},n)∣≤B′/n for step controls.
  4. Eq. (12.14): f(c,T,n)≤f(c,T)+B′/nf(c, T, n) \le f(c, T) + B'/nf(c,T,n)≤f(c,T)+B′/n for all n≥1n \ge 1n≥1.
  5. Eq. (12.17): f(c,T)≤lim inf⁡n→∞f(c,T,n)f(c, T) \le \liminf_{n \to \infty} f(c, T, n)f(c,T)≤liminfn→∞​f(c,T,n).

Milestones 3–5 are stated for c>0c > 0c>0, as in the book's proof ("Given c>0c > 0c>0 and T>0T > 0T>0"); the goal is stated for c≥0c \ge 0c≥0, as in the theorem.

Significance

Theorem 2 says that the value of a constrained continuous-time control problem can be computed, to any accuracy, by the finite recurrence of dynamic programming on a time grid. Its upper half (12.14) gives a rate: the discrete value never exceeds the continuous one by more than B′/nB'/nB′/n. The lower half (12.17) needs no rate and holds because measurable controls are approximated by step controls. Theorem 1 is a discrete counterpart of the transition curve computed in § 10: below the threshold cNc_NcN​ the whole state is invested, above it an interior amount, and the thresholds increase with the number of remaining stages.

As far as the mission's author could establish, none of these results has a machine-checked proof. The Euler error estimate is classical and has a Gronwall-type proof; Mathlib contains Gronwall's inequality (Analysis/ODE/Gronwall) and Picard–Lindelöf for continuous right-hand sides, but no convergence theory for the value of discretized control problems. The book leaves the proof of Theorem 1 to the reader.

Difficulty

The upper bound (12.14) follows from the Lemma once the continuous and the discrete trajectories are known to stay in a common bounded strip m≤x≤Mm \le x \le Mm≤x≤M; that uniform bound is what assumption (11b) provides and must be established first. The lower bound is where the obvious argument fails: an arbitrary measurable control is not a step control on the grid k/nk/nk/n, and passing to a step control changes the trajectory, so the payoff must be shown continuous under almost-everywhere convergence of controls. This uses the trajectory's dependence on the control in L1L^1L1, not only on the initial value. Solutions exist in the Carathéodory sense only, so the integral form of the equation is required. For Theorem 1 the induction must carry concavity of uNu_NuN​ and a strict comparison of marginal values across NNN, and uNu_NuN​ is not differentiable at c=0c = 0c=0, where b′(0)=∞b'(0) = \inftyb′(0)=∞.

Formalization scope

States, controls and rewards are real; F,G,b:R→RF, G, b : \mathbb R \to \mathbb RF,G,b:R→R (or R→R→R\mathbb R \to \mathbb R \to \mathbb RR→R→R), with the hypotheses imposed where the book imposes them. The conventions:

  • Misprint in (12.5). The print sets N=[T/n]N = [T/n]N=[T/n] while using the step 1/n1/n1/n in (12.6) and the intervals k/n≤t<(k+1)/nk/n \le t < (k+1)/nk/n≤t<(k+1)/n in the Lemma. Under the literal reading the discrete horizon N/nN/nN/n tends to 000 and Theorem 2 is false: for F≡1F \equiv 1F≡1, G(x,y)=yG(x, y) = yG(x,y)=y (which satisfies (11) with p=0p = 0p=0, q=1q = 1q=1, r=0r = 0r=0, Gy=1G_y = 1Gy​=1) and T=1T = 1T=1, f(c,1)=1f(c, 1) = 1f(c,1)=1 but f(c,1,n)=1/nf(c, 1, n) = 1/nf(c,1,n)=1/n for n≥2n \ge 2n≥2. The mission uses N=⌊Tn⌋N = \lfloor Tn \rfloorN=⌊Tn⌋ and keeps the book's sum ∑k=0N\sum_{k=0}^{N}∑k=0N​; the range "k=0,…,n−1k = 0, \dots, n - 1k=0,…,n−1" in (12.6) is read as k=0,…,N−1k = 0, \dots, N - 1k=0,…,N−1.
  • Lemma. Its range "0≤t≤N0 \le t \le N0≤t≤N" is read as 0≤t≤T0 \le t \le T0≤t≤T. The bounds m≤x≤Mm \le x \le Mm≤x≤M are required of the solution x(t)x(t)x(t) as well as of the sequence xkx_kxk​, since a Lipschitz condition on the strip says nothing about GGG outside it; the proof of Theorem 2 supplies both bounds. The constant may depend on mmm, MMM and the Lipschitz constant.
  • Assumptions (11) are on the original F(x,y)F(x, y)F(x,y), G(x,y)G(x, y)G(x,y), with (11a) read as C2C^2C2 on R2\mathbb R^2R2; the problem is posed through y=φxy = \varphi xy=φx.
  • "Max" over measurable controls is a supremum (the proof picks ε\varepsilonε-optimal controls). The goal asserts that the set of payoffs is nonempty and bounded above, so the Lean supremum cannot take its default value 000. Trajectories satisfy the integral equation with integrable right-hand side, and the reward is required integrable, so the Bochner integral's default 000 cannot enter either.
  • Theorem 1. (5a) is read as non-strict monotonicity: for N=1N = 1N=1 the interior optimum solves b′(v)=1b'(v) = 1b′(v)=1 and is constant in ccc. vN(c)≥0v_N(c) \ge 0vN​(c)≥0 is required for c≥cNc \ge c_Nc≥cN​, so that vN(c)v_N(c)vN​(c) is a feasible choice. (5f) presupposes differentiability and is stated where both derivatives exist.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the discrete and continuous values are defined from FFF and GGG by the book's recursions and integrals, not assumed as hypotheses, and the corrected step count is not a free parameter.

Needed infrastructure: Carathéodory existence and uniqueness for Lipschitz right-hand sides with measurable controls, Gronwall estimates for the Euler scheme, and approximation of measurable controls by step functions. All three are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of any of them are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Bellman, Dynamic Programming, Princeton University Press, 1957; Princeton Landmarks in Mathematics edition, 2010. Chapter IX, §§ 10–12, pp. 256–263. DOI 10.2307/j.ctv1nxcw0f
  • I. Capuzzo-Dolcetta, On a discrete approximation of the Hamilton–Jacobi equation of dynamic programming, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 10 (1983) 367–377. DOI 10.1007/BF01448394
  • M. Bardi and I. Capuzzo-Dolcetta, Optimal Control and Viscosity Solutions of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman Equations, Birkhäuser, 1997. DOI 10.1007/978-0-8176-4755-1
8 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VII: The (BOR) Assumptions and Positive Recurrence of Optimal PoliciesTextbook

Motivation

Queueing control problems (admission control, routing, service rate selection) are naturally modelled as Markov decision chains with a countably infinite state space and unbounded costs, for instance a holding cost that grows with the queue length. For such models the long-run average cost criterion is often the relevant one, and the central question is whether an optimal stationary policy exists and can be computed from an average cost optimality equation (ACOE). Chapter 7 of Linn I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, doi:10.1002/9780470317037) develops a verifiable set of conditions, the (SEN) assumptions, under which an average cost optimality inequality (ACOI) holds and yields an optimal stationary policy. The inequality may be strict (Example 7.3.1), and an optimal policy may induce a Markov chain without positive recurrent states.

Sections 7.4 and 7.5 answer two practical questions: when is the ACOI in fact an equation, and how can (SEN) be checked in a concrete model? The answer culminates in the (BOR) assumptions, which require only one well-behaved stationary policy and the finiteness of a set of low-cost states.

According to the book's bibliographic notes (p. 163): the (BOR) assumptions modify a line of development due to Borkar (SIAM J. Control Optim. 22, 1984, and 27, 1989; monograph 1991) and are weaker than his original conditions; the proof that (BOR) implies (SEN) is from Cavazos-Cadena and Sennott (Oper. Res. Letters 11, 1992), and the version of (BOR) used here is from Sennott (Prob. Eng. Inform. Sci. 7, 1993). Proposition 7.5.5 and the (CAV*) assumptions go back to Cavazos-Cadena (Kybernetika 25, 1989); Proposition 7.5.3 and Corollary 7.5.4 to Sennott (Oper. Res. 37, 1989).

Setting

A Markov decision chain consists of a countable state space SSS, finite nonempty action sets AiA_iAi​, nonnegative finite costs C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a) and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may use the whole history and randomize. For α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1) the discount value function is Vα(i)=inf⁡θVθ,α(i)V_\alpha(i)=\inf_\theta V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vα​(i)=infθ​Vθ,α​(i), the infimum of ∑tαtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]\sum_t\alpha^tE_\theta[C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i]∑t​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i]; the average cost of θ\thetaθ is Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡n1nEθ[∑t<nC(Xt,At)∣X0=i]J_\theta(i)=\limsup_n\frac1nE_\theta[\sum_{t<n}C(X_t,A_t)\mid X_0=i]Jθ​(i)=limsupn​n1​Eθ​[∑t<n​C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i] and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)J(i)=\inf_\theta J_\theta(i)J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i). All of these lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

For a distinguished state zzz the relative value is hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i)=V_\alpha(i)-V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z). The (SEN) assumptions are: (SEN1) (1−α)Vα(z)(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(z)(1−α)Vα​(z) is bounded on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1); (SEN2) hα≤Mh_\alpha\le Mhα​≤M for a finite function M≥0M\ge0M≥0; (SEN3) hα≥−Lh_\alpha\ge-Lhα​≥−L for a finite constant L≥0L\ge0L≥0. Under (SEN), J=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Vα(i)J=\lim_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)J=limα→1−​(1−α)Vα​(i) is a finite constant, and a limit function hhh is a pointwise limit of hβnh_{\beta_n}hβn​​ along some βn→1−\beta_n\to1^-βn​→1−. The ACOI and ACOE read

J+h(i) ≥ (resp. =) min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i∈S.J+h(i)\ \ge\ (\text{resp. }=)\ \min_{a\in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a)+\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\},\qquad i\in S.J+h(i) ≥ (resp. =) a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i∈S.

For a nonempty set GGG the first passage time is T=min⁡{n≥1:Xn∈G}T=\min\{n\ge1:X_n\in G\}T=min{n≥1:Xn​∈G}. The class ℜ(i,G)\Re(i,G)ℜ(i,G) consists of the policies that, from iii, enter GGG with probability one in finite expected time miG(θ)m_{iG}(\theta)miG​(θ); ℜ∗(i,G)\Re^*(i,G)ℜ∗(i,G) adds a finite expected first passage cost ciG(θ)=Eθ[∑t<TC(Xt,At)]c_{iG}(\theta)=E_\theta[\sum_{t<T}C(X_t,A_t)]ciG​(θ)=Eθ​[∑t<T​C(Xt​,At​)]. A (randomized) stationary policy ddd is zzz standard if the Markov chain it induces has miz<∞m_{iz}<\inftymiz​<∞ and ciz<∞c_{iz}<\inftyciz​<∞ for every iii; it then has a single positive recurrent class Rd∋zR_d\ni zRd​∋z and a finite constant average cost JdJ_dJd​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.5.6

Assume (BOR): (BOR1) a zzz standard policy ddd exists; (BOR2) for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 the set D={i:C(i,a)≤Jd+ε for some a}D=\{i: C(i,a)\le J_d+\varepsilon\text{ for some }a\}D={i:C(i,a)≤Jd​+ε for some a} is finite; (BOR3) every i∈D−Rdi\in D-R_di∈D−Rd​ can be reached from zzz by some θi∈ℜ∗(z,i)\theta_i\in\Re^*(z,i)θi​∈ℜ∗(z,i). Then (SEN) holds and every limit function satisfies the ACOE; every average cost optimal stationary policy eee has a positive recurrent state in

D(e)={i:C(i,e)≤J+ε},D(e)=\{i: C(i,e)\le J+\varepsilon\},D(e)={i:C(i,e)≤J+ε},

at most ∣D(e)∣|D(e)|∣D(e)∣ positive recurrent classes and no null recurrent class; and a policy realizing the minimum in the ACOE satisfies e∈ℜ∗(i,D(e)∩R(e))e\in\Re^*(i,D(e)\cap R(e))e∈ℜ∗(i,D(e)∩R(e)) for every iii.

Milestones

  • Lemma 7.4.1: hα(i)≤ciz(θi)h_\alpha(i)\le c_{iz}(\theta_i)hα​(i)≤ciz​(θi​) for θi∈ℜ∗(i,z)\theta_i\in\Re^*(i,z)θi​∈ℜ∗(i,z), hence (SEN2).
  • Lemma 7.4.2: h(i)≤ciG(θ)−JmiG(θ)+Eθ[h(XT)]h(i)\le c_{iG}(\theta)-Jm_{iG}(\theta)+E_\theta[h(X_T)]h(i)≤ciG​(θ)−JmiG​(θ)+Eθ​[h(XT​)] for θ∈ℜ(i,G)\theta\in\Re(i,G)θ∈ℜ(i,G) under an integrability condition.
  • Theorem 7.4.3: four sufficient conditions for equality in the ACOI at a state.
  • Lemma 7.5.2: Jd=(1−α)∑i∈Rπi(d)Vd,α(i)J_d=(1-\alpha)\sum_{i\in R}\pi_i(d)V_{d,\alpha}(i)Jd​=(1−α)∑i∈R​πi​(d)Vd,α​(i) for a zzz standard ddd.
  • Proposition 7.5.3: a zzz standard policy gives (SEN1–2).
  • Corollary 7.5.4: on S={0,1,… }S=\{0,1,\dots\}S={0,1,…}, increasing VαV_\alphaVα​ plus a 000 standard policy gives (SEN), with nonnegative increasing limit functions.
  • Proposition 7.5.5: an optimal stationary policy has a positive recurrent state of cost at most J+εJ+\varepsilonJ+ε, reachable from iii, when (7.33) holds.
  • Corollaries 7.5.9 and 7.5.10: the (CAV) and (CAV*) conditions imply (BOR).

Significance

Theorem 7.5.6 reduces the verification of the ACOE for a queueing model to three checks that do not involve the discount value function: exhibit one stationary policy with finite mean return times and costs to a fixed state (typically a stable "serve at maximal rate" policy), check that low costs occur on a finite set (automatic when the holding cost grows without bound, Corollaries 7.5.9–7.5.10), and check reachability of finitely many states. Its conclusions go beyond existence: optimal stationary policies induce chains with positive recurrent classes located in a known finite set, and ACOE-realizing policies reach them in finite expected time and cost. This is what makes value iteration and approximating-sequence methods in later chapters of the book applicable to these models.

The results are proved in the book. The present mission produces machine-checked statements of the first passage calculus for general (history-dependent, randomized) policies, of (SEN) and limit functions, and of the chain of implications from (CAV*) to the ACOE. No machine-checked version of these statements is known.

Difficulty

The obvious approach to the ACOE is to pass to the limit α→1−\alpha\to1^-α→1− in the discount optimality equation. Exchanging this limit with ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) requires a dominating function, and (SEN2) only gives a pointwise bound MMM whose expectation may be infinite; Fatou's lemma then yields only the inequality. Obtaining equality requires tracking first passages to sets and showing that the discrepancy Φ\PhiΦ vanishes along them, which in turn needs finiteness of ciGc_{iG}ciG​ that is not assumed but has to be derived. On the recurrence side, the average cost criterion is a limit superior of Cesàro averages over a countable state space, and mass can escape to infinity; the finiteness of the set DDD is what prevents an optimal policy from spending its time in transient or null recurrent states, and turning that into positive recurrence requires the renewal-type identities of Appendix C.

Formalization scope

States form a countable type SSS; action sets are nonempty Finsets; costs are in ℝ≥0; transition probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued with row sums one on admissible actions. Policies are general: a history is a state sequence and an action sequence, and all probabilities and expectations (hitting probabilities, miGm_{iG}miG​, ciGc_{iG}ciG​, Pθ(XT=j)P_\theta(X_T=j)Pθ​(XT​=j), Qij(n)Q^{(n)}_{ij}Qij(n)​) are computed from the history probabilities of the process. VαV_\alphaVα​, JθJ_\thetaJθ​, miGm_{iG}miG​ and ciGc_{iG}ciG​ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; miG=∞m_{iG}=\inftymiG​=∞ when GGG is missed with positive probability; the first passage time satisfies T≥1T\ge1T≥1. hαh_\alphahα​ and ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_jP_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) are in the extended reals, with the book's convention that a function bounded below has an expectation in (−∞,+∞](-\infty,+\infty](−∞,+∞]. Limit functions are real valued. Positive recurrence, communicating classes and steady state probabilities πj=(mjj)−1\pi_j=(m_{jj})^{-1}πj​=(mjj​)−1 are the notions for the chain induced by a (randomized) stationary policy. JdJ_dJd​ is the average cost of ddd from zzz.

A formalization in which the ACOE is asserted for some convenient function instead of every limit function, or in which ∣D(e)∣|D(e)|∣D(e)∣ is a natural-number cardinality that vanishes on infinite sets, would trivialize part of the goal; the statements quantify over all limit functions and use Set.encard.

A complete development needs: history-dependent policies and their path laws on countable spaces; first passage decompositions (strong Markov property at TTT); Abelian limits of ∑tαtP(T=t)\sum_t\alpha^tP(T=t)∑t​αtP(T=t); Fatou and dominated convergence for series; and the renewal reward theorem for positive recurrent classes (Appendix C of the book). The first passage and Markov chain layer is reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, and sharper statements of the Appendix C facts they use, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, John Wiley & Sons, 1999. doi:10.1002/9780470317037
  • V. S. Borkar, "On minimum cost per unit time control of Markov chains", SIAM J. Control Optim. 22 (1984), 965–978.
  • V. S. Borkar, "Control of Markov chains with long-run average cost criterion: the dynamic programming equations", SIAM J. Control Optim. 27 (1989), 642–657.
  • V. S. Borkar, Topics in Controlled Markov Chains, Pitman Research Notes in Mathematics 240, Longman, 1991.
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena, "Weak conditions for the existence of optimal stationary policies in average Markov decision chains with unbounded costs", Kybernetika 25 (1989), 145–156.
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena and L. I. Sennott, "Comparing recent assumptions for the existence of average optimal stationary policies", Oper. Res. Letters 11 (1992), 33–37.
  • L. I. Sennott, "The average cost optimality equation and critical number policies", Prob. Eng. Inform. Sci. 7 (1993).
  • L. I. Sennott, "Average cost optimal stationary policies in infinite state Markov decision processes with unbounded costs", Operations Research 37 (1989), 626–633. doi:10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • K. L. Chung, Markov Chains with Stationary Transition Probabilities, 2nd ed., Springer, 1967.
15 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems VI: The (SEN) Assumptions and the Average Cost Optimality InequalityTextbook

Motivation

Queueing control problems (admission control, routing, service-rate selection, flow control) are naturally posed as Markov decision chains with a denumerably infinite state space, such as the number of customers in a buffer, and are usually judged by their long-run average cost per unit time. When the state space is finite, Chapter 6 of Sennott's book shows that an average cost optimal stationary policy always exists. On a countable state space this fails: Section 7.1 of the book gives examples in which no average cost optimal policy exists, and one in which no stationary policy comes within a given distance of the minimum average cost. The question addressed by this mission is under which verifiable conditions on the discounted value functions a countable-state model has a constant minimum average cost and an optimal stationary policy.

Timeline, following the book's bibliographic notes (p. 163). The book names Taylor (1965) and Derman (1966) as earlier pivotal work and Ross (1968), and his 1983 textbook, as the direct predecessor. Sennott (1989, Operations Research 37) weakened Ross's assumptions to cover models with unbounded costs, and proved the main result of Section 7.2; the (SEN) assumptions of Chapter 7 are the cleaner version of Sennott (1993). Cavazos-Cadena (1991) gave the example, adapted as Example 7.3.1 of the book, showing that under these assumptions the optimality inequality can be strict. The weaker (H*) assumptions of Section 7.7 appear, in a slightly different form, in Sennott (1995). Part (iv) of Theorem 7.2.3 is new in the book.

Setting

A Markov decision chain (MDC) Δ\DeltaΔ has a countable state space SSS, for each state iii a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​, a nonnegative finite cost C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a), and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a) with ∑jPij(a)=1\sum_j P_{ij}(a) = 1∑j​Pij​(a)=1. A policy θ\thetaθ chooses the action at time nnn at random according to a distribution that may depend on the whole history (X0,A0,…,Xn)(X_0, A_0, \dots, X_n)(X0​,A0​,…,Xn​); a stationary policy fff always chooses f(i)∈Aif(i) \in A_if(i)∈Ai​ in state iii.

For an initial state iii, the nnn-horizon cost is vθ,n(i)=∑t=0n−1Eθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]v_{\theta,n}(i) = \sum_{t=0}^{n-1} E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i]vθ,n​(i)=∑t=0n−1​Eθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i], the average cost is Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡nvθ,n(i)/nJ_\theta(i) = \limsup_{n} v_{\theta,n}(i)/nJθ​(i)=limsupn​vθ,n​(i)/n, and the minimum average cost is J(i)=inf⁡θJθ(i)J(i) = \inf_\theta J_\theta(i)J(i)=infθ​Jθ​(i) over all policies. A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta \equiv JJθ​≡J. For α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1) the discounted value function is Vα(i)=inf⁡θ∑t≥0αtEθ[C(Xt,At)∣X0=i]V_\alpha(i) = \inf_\theta \sum_{t \ge 0} \alpha^t E_\theta[C(X_t,A_t) \mid X_0 = i]Vα​(i)=infθ​∑t≥0​αtEθ​[C(Xt​,At​)∣X0​=i]. All these quantities lie in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Fix a distinguished state zzz and put hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z). The (SEN) assumptions are:

  • (SEN1) (1−α)Vα(z)(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(z)(1−α)Vα​(z) is bounded for α∈(0,1)\alpha \in (0,1)α∈(0,1);
  • (SEN2) there is a nonnegative finite function MMM with hα(i)≤M(i)h_\alpha(i) \le M(i)hα​(i)≤M(i) for all iii and α\alphaα;
  • (SEN3) there is a nonnegative finite constant LLL with −L≤hα(i)-L \le h_\alpha(i)−L≤hα​(i) for all iii and α\alphaα.

A limit function hhh is a pointwise limit of hβnh_{\beta_n}hβn​​ along some sequence βn→1−\beta_n \to 1^-βn​→1−. If fαf_\alphafα​ is a stationary policy realizing the discount optimality equation Vα(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+α∑jPij(a)Vα(j)}V_\alpha(i) = \min_a \{C(i,a) + \alpha\sum_j P_{ij}(a)V_\alpha(j)\}Vα​(i)=mina​{C(i,a)+α∑j​Pij​(a)Vα​(j)}, a limit point fff is a stationary policy with fβn(i)=f(i)f_{\beta_n}(i) = f(i)fβn​​(i)=f(i) for large nnn, for each iii, along some βn→1−\beta_n \to 1^-βn​→1−.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.2.3

Under (SEN), there is a finite constant J=lim⁡α→1−(1−α)Vα(i)J = \lim_{\alpha\to1^-}(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(i)J=limα→1−​(1−α)Vα​(i) independent of iii; limit functions exist, satisfy −L≤h≤M-L \le h \le M−L≤h≤M and the average cost optimality inequality (ACOI)

J+h(i)≥min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)h(j)},i∈S;J + h(i) \ge \min_{a \in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a)h(j)\Big\}, \qquad i \in S;J+h(i)≥a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},i∈S;

every stationary policy realizing the minimum is average cost optimal with Je≡JJ_e \equiv JJe​≡J and Ee[h(Xn)]/n→0E_e[h(X_n)]/n \to 0Ee​[h(Xn​)]/n→0; every limit point of discount optimal stationary policies is average cost optimal and satisfies the corresponding inequality for an associated limit function; and the average cost of any optimal policy is a limit, not only a limit supremum.

Milestones

  • Proposition 7.1.1: finitely many initial transitions with finite cost do not change JθJ_\thetaJθ​.
  • Lemma 7.2.1: a bounded-below solution (J,h)(J,h)(J,h) of the ACOI inequality for a stationary eee gives Je≤JJ_e \le JJe​≤J.
  • Proposition B.6: a sequence of functions squeezed between −L-L−L and MMM on a countable set has a pointwise convergent subsequence.
  • Proposition 7.2.4: (SEN) does not depend on the choice of zzz.
  • Proposition 7.7.1: (SEN) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (H*) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (H).
  • Proposition 7.7.2: the conclusions of Theorem 7.2.3 hold under (H), with a state-dependent lower bound L(i)L(i)L(i).

Significance

Theorem 7.2.3 is the existence theorem the rest of Chapter 7 builds on (p. 128): the ACOE results of Section 7.4, the (BOR) and (CAV) sufficient conditions of Section 7.5, and the worked queueing models of Section 7.6 all work under (SEN) and invoke it. It justifies computing an average cost optimal policy for a queueing model as a limit of discount optimal policies, and it shows that the minimum average cost is the Abelian limit of the normalized discounted value.

The results are proved in the book and in Sennott (1989, 1993, 1995), but none of them has a machine-checked proof: Mathlib has no Markov decision processes, and the platform's average cost results concern finite state spaces or Borel models with different assumptions. The formalization produces a general-policy, countable-state MDC development with extended-real values, reusable by the later missions of this series.

Difficulty

On a finite state space the relative value functions are bounded and the Abelian limit (1−α)Vα(1-\alpha)V_\alpha(1−α)Vα​ can be controlled directly. Here hαh_\alphahα​ is bounded above only by a function MMM that may be unbounded, so passing to the limit in the discounted optimality equation ∑jPij(a)hα(j)\sum_j P_{ij}(a)h_\alpha(j)∑j​Pij​(a)hα​(j) cannot use dominated convergence, and in general only an inequality survives in the limit; Example 7.3.1 shows that the inequality in the ACOI can be strict. Showing that a policy realizing the ACOI is optimal requires control of Ee[h(Xn)]/nE_e[h(X_n)]/nEe​[h(Xn​)]/n for a function hhh that is unbounded above, and part (iv) requires comparing the limit inferior and limit superior of Cesàro averages for an arbitrary, possibly history-dependent optimal policy.

Formalization scope

The state space is any countable type ([Countable S]); actions form a type with finite nonempty Finset action sets; costs are ℝ≥0; transition probabilities, costs over time and value functions are ℝ≥0∞. Policies are general: randomized and history dependent, with histories encoded as finite state and action sequences and the process law built by an explicit recursive product. Finite horizon costs have terminal cost 000, as the chapter prescribes.

The relative value hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z)h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z) is computed in EReal, never through a truncated real subtraction: a state with Vα(i)=∞V_\alpha(i) = \inftyVα​(i)=∞ gives hα(i)=+∞h_\alpha(i) = +\inftyhα​(i)=+∞, so (SEN2) cannot hold through a junk value, and (SEN1) is a bound by a finite constant that itself forces Vα(z)<∞V_\alpha(z) < \inftyVα​(z)<∞. Sums ∑jPij(a)h(j)\sum_j P_{ij}(a)h(j)∑j​Pij​(a)h(j) and expectations E[h(Xn)]E[h(X_n)]E[h(Xn​)] of real functions are extended reals, computed as positive part minus negative part; they are never Bochner integrals and never default to 000 when not summable. The limit α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1− is the filter 𝓝[<] 1. Limit functions and limit points follow Definition 7.2.2 literally, over arbitrary sequences αn→1−\alpha_n \to 1^-αn​→1− in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), and the (SEN), (H), (H*) sets are predicates carrying their witnesses MMM and LLL.

A development that bounds only hαh_\alphahα​ as a free function, rather than the one built from the infimum over all policies, or that quantifies only over stationary policies in J(i)J(i)J(i), proves a different and weaker theorem and does not count.

Needed infrastructure: the law of the controlled process under a general policy, monotone and Fatou-type limit interchanges for countable sums, the Abelian inequality lim sup⁡(1−α)∑αtct≤lim sup⁡1n∑t<nct\limsup(1-\alpha)\sum\alpha^t c_t \le \limsup \frac1n\sum_{t<n}c_tlimsup(1−α)∑αtct​≤limsupn1​∑t<n​ct​ (Proposition 6.1.1 of the book), and the existence and optimality of discount optimal stationary policies (Theorem 4.1.4). The MDC layer and these two results are shared with other missions of the series; contributions to them are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley, 1999, Chapter 7 (pp. 127–166) and Appendix B. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • L. I. Sennott, Average cost optimal stationary policies in infinite state Markov decision processes with unbounded costs, Operations Research 37 (1989) 626–633. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.37.4.626
  • L. I. Sennott, The average cost optimality equation and critical number policies, Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences 7 (1993). (Cited in the book's bibliography, p. 321.)
  • L. I. Sennott, Another set of conditions for average optimality in Markov control processes, Systems & Control Letters 24 (1995) 147–151. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • R. Cavazos-Cadena, A counterexample on the optimality equation in Markov decision chains with the average cost criterion, Systems & Control Letters 16 (1991) 387–392. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • S. M. Ross, Non-discounted denumerable Markovian decision models, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 39 (1968) 412–423. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • H. M. Taylor, Markovian sequential replacement processes, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 36 (1965) 1677–1694. (Cited in the book's bibliography.)
  • E. A. Feinberg and Y. Liang, On the optimality equation for average cost Markov decision processes and its validity for inventory control; formalized on Prove2Me in the mission of the same name (Borel state spaces, a different model).
12 thms2 active usersReviewed
ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains VII: Palm's Theorem for Nonstationary DemandTextbook

Motivation

Spare-parts inventory models for repairable items rest on Palm's theorem: if demands arrive as a Poisson process with constant rate λ\lambdaλ and each demanded unit spends an independent, identically distributed resupply time with mean τˉ\bar\tauτˉ in the pipeline, the number of units in resupply is Poisson with mean λτˉ\lambda\bar\tauλτˉ in steady state. Stock levels, backorders and fill rates are all computed from that distribution.

Both assumptions fail in practice. Military flying programmes ramp up and down within weeks, repair shops close for periods, and commercial parts distribution centres see demand that varies by day of the week. Chapter 9 of Muckstadt's Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains (Springer 2005, DOI 10.1007/b138879) extends Palm's theorem to a nonstationary Poisson demand process with time-dependent resupply-time distributions, gives the compound (multi-unit order) version, and uses the result to compute, at any time ttt, the distribution of units in repair at the depot of a two-echelon system.

Timeline: Palm (1938) proved the stationary result for telephone traffic; Feeney and Sherbrooke (1966) extended it to compound Poisson demand; Hillestad and Carrillo (RAND, 1980) and Crawford (RAND, 1981) developed the time-dependent extensions, summarized by Carrillo (RAND, 1989). The chapter presents these results.

Setting

A single item is stocked at one location, and every demand is for one unit.

  • Demand rate λ(s)≥0\lambda(s) \ge 0λ(s)≥0, integrable on bounded intervals, with mean function m(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsm(t) = \int_0^t \lambda(s)\,dsm(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds.
  • Demand process: a nonstationary Poisson process with mean function mmm, with N(0)=0N(0) = 0N(0)=0. N(t)N(t)N(t) counts demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] and T0<T1<⋯T_0 < T_1 < \cdotsT0​<T1​<⋯ are the demand epochs.
  • Resupply times: a unit demanded at time sss is resupplied within www time units with probability Gs(w)G_s(w)Gs​(w). Resupply times are nonnegative, have finite expectations, are independent from unit to unit, and are independent of the demand process.
  • X(t)X(t)X(t) is the number of units in resupply at time ttt: demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t] whose resupply is not complete at ttt.

The mean of X(t)X(t)X(t) is

α(t)=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s) ds.\alpha(t) = \int_0^t \bigl(1 - G_s(t-s)\bigr)\lambda(s)\,ds.α(t)=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)ds.

In the compound version (Section 9.2), orders arrive as above and each order is for Q≥1Q \ge 1Q≥1 units, with a time-stationary law uj=P(Q=j)u_j = P(Q = j)uj​=P(Q=j). All units of an order share its resupply time, Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) counts units demanded in [0,t][0,t][0,t], and uk(n)u^{(n)}_kuk(n)​ is the nnn-fold convolution of (uj)(u_j)(uj​).

In the two-echelon version (Section 9.3), base iii has failure rate λi\lambda_iλi​. A failure is repaired at the base with probability rir_iri​ and at the depot otherwise. Depot repair of a failure occurring at time uuu takes a deterministic time D(u)D(u)D(u) with D(t)+t≥D(s)+sD(t) + t \ge D(s) + sD(t)+t≥D(s)+s for s<ts < ts<t (no crossing). Write t~=inf⁡{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}\tilde t = \inf\{u \ge 0 : D(u) + u > t\}t~=inf{u≥0:D(u)+u>t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 13 (p. 216)

For every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

P{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)α(t)kk!,k=0,1,2,…P\{X(t) = k\} = e^{-\alpha(t)}\frac{\alpha(t)^k}{k!}, \qquad k = 0,1,2,\dotsP{X(t)=k}=e−α(t)k!α(t)k​,k=0,1,2,…

This is an exact statement at each finite time, not a limit. With constant λ\lambdaλ and Gs=GG_s = GGs​=G it reduces to the finite-time step of Palm's theorem.

Milestones

  1. E[N(t)]=m(t)E[N(t)] = m(t)E[N(t)]=m(t) (Section 9.1, p. 216).
  2. Theorem 12 (p. 216): given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n, the epochs T0,…,Tn−1T_0, \dots, T_{n-1}T0​,…,Tn−1​ are distributed as the order statistics of nnn i.i.d. variables with distribution function F(x)=m(x)/m(t)F(x) = m(x)/m(t)F(x)=m(x)/m(t) on [0,t)[0,t)[0,t).
  3. The binomial step of the proof of Theorem 13 (pp. 216–217): P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(nk)pk(1−p)n−kP\{X(t) = k \mid N(t) = n\} = \binom nk p^k(1-p)^{n-k}P{X(t)=k∣N(t)=n}=(kn​)pk(1−p)n−k, with p=∫0t(1−Gs(t−s))λ(s)/m(t) dsp = \int_0^t (1 - G_s(t-s))\lambda(s)/m(t)\,dsp=∫0t​(1−Gs​(t−s))λ(s)/m(t)ds.
  4. Section 9.2 (p. 218): E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q]E[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q] and Var⁡[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2]\operatorname{Var}[Y(t)] = m(t)E[Q^2]Var[Y(t)]=m(t)E[Q2].
  5. Theorem 14 (p. 218): P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1uk(n)e−α(t)α(t)n/n!P[X(t) = k] = \sum_{n\ge1} u^{(n)}_k e^{-\alpha(t)}\alpha(t)^n/n!P[X(t)=k]=∑n≥1​uk(n)​e−α(t)α(t)n/n! for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1, and e−α(t)e^{-\alpha(t)}e−α(t) at k=0k = 0k=0.
  6. Section 9.3.2 (p. 221): P{X0(t)=k}=e−m0(t~,t)m0(t~,t)k/k!P\{X_0(t) = k\} = e^{-m_0(\tilde t,t)} m_0(\tilde t,t)^k/k!P{X0​(t)=k}=e−m0​(t~,t)m0​(t~,t)k/k! with m0(t~,t)=∫t~t∑iλi(u)(1−ri) dum_0(\tilde t,t) = \int_{\tilde t}^t \sum_i \lambda_i(u)(1-r_i)\,dum0​(t~,t)=∫t~t​∑i​λi​(u)(1−ri​)du.

A plain supporting item states that N(t)N(t)N(t) is Poisson with mean m(t)m(t)m(t), the factor the proof of Theorem 13 uses.

Significance

Theorem 13 gives the full distribution of the pipeline at every instant. Time-dependent expected backorders, ∑x>s(t)(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}\sum_{x > s(t)} (x - s(t)) P\{X(t) = x\}∑x>s(t)​(x−s(t))P{X(t)=x}, and fill rates P{X(t)<s(t)}P\{X(t) < s(t)\}P{X(t)<s(t)} follow from it, so stock levels can be planned against a surge or a repair outage without a steady-state approximation. Theorem 14 does the same for multi-unit orders. The depot result feeds the base-level convolution of Section 9.3.3, which in turn gives time-dependent performance measures for a two-echelon system.

These results are proved in the literature, and the chapter reproduces the proofs of Theorems 13 and 14. It cites Theorem 12 without proof ("similar to the one given in Chapter 3"). No machine-checked version of any of them is known, and neither Mathlib nor this platform has a Poisson process, stationary or not, a thinning theorem, or an order-statistics theorem. The formal content of this mission therefore includes the construction and the first distributional facts of the nonstationary Poisson process.

Difficulty

The algebra of the proof is a Poisson mixture of binomials and is short. The difficulty is Theorem 12 and its use. The obvious argument treats "the nnn demands in [0,t][0,t][0,t]" as nnn independent draws from FFF and assigns each an independent resupply time with law GdrawG_{\text{draw}}Gdraw​. Making this rigorous requires identifying the conditional joint law of the epochs given N(t)=nN(t) = nN(t)=n. The resupply time of the jjj-th demand is not independent of its epoch: its law depends on the epoch. So it must be shown that, after conditioning, the marks attached to sorted epochs behave like marks attached to unsorted i.i.d. draws. The book's constant-rate argument (Chapter 3) uses the uniform density n!/tnn!/t^nn!/tn on the simplex. Here the density involves λ\lambdaλ, which may vanish on intervals, and mmm need not be invertible.

Formalization scope

  • Demand process. The nonstationary Poisson process is constructed, not postulated. With i.i.d. exponential(1) gaps and unit-rate points Γk=A0+⋯+Ak\Gamma_k = A_0 + \cdots + A_kΓk​=A0​+⋯+Ak​, the kkk-th demand occurs at Tk=inf⁡{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk}T_k = \inf\{s \ge 0 : m(s) \ge \Gamma_k\}Tk​=inf{s≥0:m(s)≥Γk​}, and N(t)=#{k:Γk≤m(t)}N(t) = \#\{k : \Gamma_k \le m(t)\}N(t)=#{k:Γk​≤m(t)}.
  • Resupply times. Resupply times are ρ(Tk,Uk)\rho(T_k, U_k)ρ(Tk​,Uk​) for a jointly measurable ρ≥0\rho \ge 0ρ≥0 and i.i.d. marks UkU_kUk​ independent of the gaps, with Gs(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}G_s(w) = \nu\{\rho(s,\cdot) \le w\}Gs​(w)=ν{ρ(s,⋅)≤w}. Every measurable family GsG_sGs​ arises this way, and joint measurability makes α(t)\alpha(t)α(t) a genuine integral. Independence of resupply times from the demand process is not written in Theorem 12 or 13 but is used in the proof; it is part of the model.
  • Pinnings and conventions.
    • "λ\lambdaλ integrable" is read as integrable on bounded intervals.
    • Time is t≥0t \ge 0t≥0.
    • Theorem 12 assumes m(t)>0m(t) > 0m(t)>0, since FFF is 0/00/00/0 otherwise, and sets F=0F = 0F=0 on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0).
    • Conditional probabilities are written as joint probabilities.
    • E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)]E[Y(t)] is stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the variance identity assumes E[Q2]<∞E[Q^2] < \inftyE[Q2]<∞.
    • t~\tilde tt~ is an infimum over u≥0u \ge 0u≥0, and D≥0D \ge 0D≥0.
    • Counts are cardinalities, and are 000 on the null event where they would be infinite.
  • Corrections. Theorem 14's printed sum starts at n=1n = 1n=1, which gives P[X(t)=0]=0P[X(t) = 0] = 0P[X(t)=0]=0. The statement keeps the book's formula for k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 and adds P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t)P[X(t) = 0] = e^{-\alpha(t)}P[X(t)=0]=e−α(t). The depot's Poisson demand stream with rate ∑iλi(1−ri)\sum_i \lambda_i(1-r_i)∑i​λi​(1−ri​) is generated from the bases' processes and independent repair-location choices, not assumed.
  • Not stated.
    • Eqs. (9.1)–(9.2), the FCFS depot backorders owed to base iii: the derivation on p. 221 is informal, and (9.1) prints the exponent s0(t−1)s_0(t-1)s0​(t−1) for s0(t)−1s_0(t)-1s0​(t)−1.
    • The base analysis of Section 9.3.3.
    • The compound law of Y(t)Y(t)Y(t) on p. 217, which has the same n=0n = 0n=0 omission.
  • Trivialization ruled out. X(t)X(t)X(t) is computed from the demand epochs and resupply times, not defined by its law, and resupply times cannot depend on the demand epochs except through the prescribed GsG_sGs​. Either shortcut would make the goal empty or false.
  • Infrastructure. The time-changed Poisson construction, its count law, the order-statistics property and marked thinning are reusable well beyond this chapter: in queueing (Mt/Gt/∞M_t/G_t/\inftyMt​/Gt​/∞), in reliability, and in the stationary Palm mission of this series. Contributions of these general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Chapter 9, pp. 215–222. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • C. Palm, "Analysis of the Erlang traffic formulae for busy-signal arrangements", Ericsson Technics 5, 1938, 39–58.
  • G. J. Feeney and C. C. Sherbrooke, "The (s−1, s) inventory policy under compound Poisson demand", Management Science 12(5), 1966, 391–411. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.12.5.391
  • R. J. Hillestad and M. J. Carrillo, Models and techniques for recoverable item stockage when demand and the repair processes are nonstationary — Part I: Performance measurement, Report N-1482-AF, RAND Corporation, 1980.
  • G. B. Crawford, Palm's theorem for nonstationary processes, Report R-2750-RC, RAND Corporation, 1981.
  • M. J. Carrillo, Generalizations of Palm's theorem and Dyna-METRIC's demand and pipeline variability, Report R-3698-AF, RAND Corporation, 1989.
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to the Scenario Approach II: Violation Guarantees after Discarding k ConstraintsTextbook

Motivation

Decisions under uncertainty are often required to satisfy a constraint θ∈Θδ\theta \in \Theta_\deltaθ∈Θδ​ that depends on a random parameter δ\deltaδ, and requiring it for every possible δ\deltaδ is usually too conservative or infeasible. The scenario approach replaces the unknown distribution of δ\deltaδ by NNN independent samples (scenarios) and enforces only the sampled constraints; its generalization theorem (Campi and Garatti, 2008) bounds the probability that the resulting decision violates a fresh constraint.

Enforcing all NNN sampled constraints can still be costly: a few unusual scenarios may dominate the solution. A practitioner therefore often discards kkk of the sampled constraints, optimally, greedily or at random, and re-solves. The question is what guarantee survives: the removed constraints were chosen by looking at the data, so the solution is biased towards points of higher risk. Campi and Garatti (2011) answered it with a bound that holds for every removal procedure. This mission formalizes that answer as it is presented in Chapter 3, Section 3.3 and Chapter 5, Section 5.3 of the textbook Introduction to the Scenario Approach (Campi and Garatti, SIAM/MOS 2018), together with its explicit corollary, Theorem 1.2. Applications include chance-constrained control, portfolio selection and prediction, where discarding scenarios trades a controlled amount of risk for a better cost.

Setting

A decision θ\thetaθ ranges over Rd\mathbb R^dRd (in Lean, EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d)), with a closed convex domain Θ\ThetaΘ and a linear cost cTθc^{\mathsf T}\thetacTθ. An uncertain parameter δ\deltaδ takes values in a measurable space Δ\DeltaΔ with probability P\mathbb PP, and each δ\deltaδ determines a closed convex constraint set Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​. The violation probability of a decision is

V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∉Θδ}.V(\theta) = \mathbb P\{\delta \in \Delta : \theta \notin \Theta_\delta\}.V(θ)=P{δ∈Δ:θ∈/Θδ​}.

Given independent samples δ1,…,δN\delta_1,\dots,\delta_Nδ1​,…,δN​ with joint law PN\mathbb P^NPN, the scenario program minimizes cTθc^{\mathsf T}\thetacTθ over θ∈Θ∩⋂i=1NΘδi\theta \in \Theta \cap \bigcap_{i=1}^N \Theta_{\delta_i}θ∈Θ∩⋂i=1N​Θδi​​. For a set III of indexes, the program without the constraints in III minimizes the same cost over Θ∩⋂i∉IΘδi\Theta \cap \bigcap_{i \notin I} \Theta_{\delta_i}Θ∩⋂i∈/I​Θδi​​; its solution is written θI∗\theta^*_IθI∗​. A removal procedure selects, as a function of the whole sample, a set of kkk indexes, and θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ denotes the solution of the program without them. The procedure is required to output a solution that violates exactly the kkk removed constraints (with probability one): a removed constraint that turns out to be satisfied is reinstated and another is removed. Two standing assumptions are used throughout: Assumption 3.4, that Θ\ThetaΘ and every Θδ\Theta_\deltaΘδ​ are convex and closed, and Assumption 3.6, that for every sample size mmm and every sample the scenario program has exactly one solution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.9

For N≥dN \ge dN≥d, under Assumptions 3.4 and 3.6, for every removal procedure and every ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon \in [0,1]ε∈[0,1],

PN{V(θk∗)>ε}≤(k+d−1k)∑i=0k+d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i.\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilon\} \le \binom{k+d-1}{k} \sum_{i=0}^{k+d-1} \binom Ni \varepsilon^i (1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}.PN{V(θk∗​)>ε}≤(kk+d−1​)i=0∑k+d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i.

The bound depends on the problem only through ddd, and on the removal procedure not at all. For k=0k = 0k=0 it is Theorem 3.7.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.7 (no removal): PN{V(θ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i\mathbb P^N\{V(\theta^*) > \varepsilon\} \le \sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}PN{V(θ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i, used for the program with the N−kN-kN−k kept constraints.
  2. Eq. (5.11): up to a zero probability set, the event {V(θk∗)>ε}\{V(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilon\}{V(θk∗​)>ε} is contained in the union over all kkk-element index sets III of the events "θI∗\theta^*_IθI∗​ violates all constraints in III and V(θI∗)>εV(\theta^*_I) > \varepsilonV(θI∗​)>ε".
  3. Eq. (5.13): for a fixed III, the probability of that event equals ∫(ε,1]αkFV(dα)\int_{(\varepsilon,1]} \alpha^k F_V(d\alpha)∫(ε,1]​αkFV​(dα), where FVF_VFV​ is the law of V(θI∗)V(\theta^*_I)V(θI∗​).
  4. Eq. (5.14) and Theorem 3.9 for d=2d = 2d=2: the book's complete proof in the plane.
  5. Eqs. (3.15)–(3.17) and the conclusion of Section 3.3.1: with the explicit level εk\varepsilon_kεk​ of (1.9), the right-hand side of (3.13) is at most β\betaβ.
  6. Theorem 1.2: with probability at least 1−β1-\beta1−β, V(θk∗)≤εkV(\theta^*_k) \le \varepsilon_kV(θk∗​)≤εk​, where
εk=kN+[kN+k+1N((d−1)ln⁡(k+d−1)+d−1k+ln⁡1β)].\varepsilon_k = \frac{k}{N} + \left[\frac{\sqrt k}{N} + \frac{\sqrt k+1}{N}\left((d-1)\ln(k+d-1) + \frac{d-1}{\sqrt k} + \ln\frac1\beta\right)\right].εk​=Nk​+[Nk​​+Nk​+1​((d−1)ln(k+d−1)+k​d−1​+lnβ1​)].

Significance

Theorem 3.9 certifies every constraint-removal heuristic at once. Since the guarantee is the same for optimal, greedy and random removal, a user may pick the removal strategy purely for cost, and may inspect several values of kkk before choosing, paying only a union bound over the values tried (Section 3.3). Theorem 1.2 turns the bound into an explicit rate: when k/Nk/Nk/N is held fixed, the violation exceeds the empirical risk k/Nk/Nk/N by a margin of order ln⁡N/N\ln N/\sqrt NlnN/N​, only slightly worse than the 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ rate for estimating the probability of a fixed event. The result also shows that the violation after removal concentrates around the target level, which is the basis of the book's comparison between sampling-and-discarding and simply using fewer scenarios (Example 3.10).

Theorem 3.9 is proved in the literature for general ddd (Campi and Garatti, 2011); the textbook proves it for d=2d = 2d=2. To our knowledge no part of the scenario approach has a machine-checked proof. A formal development would supply the first verified version of the removal bound, a Lean treatment of solution maps of random convex programs, and reusable combinatorial and binomial-tail estimates.

Difficulty

The removed set is chosen after seeing the data, so the kept constraints are not an independent sample and Theorem 3.7 cannot be applied to θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ directly. The argument must pass through all (Nk)\binom Nk(kN​) fixed index sets and account for the event that the removed constraints are violated; a plain union bound that ignores this event loses a factor (Nk)\binom Nk(kN​) and does not give (3.13). For a fixed index set, the probability that the kkk removed scenarios are all violated involves the distribution of V(θI∗)V(\theta^*_I)V(θI∗​), which is only known to be dominated by a Beta law, so a stochastic-domination argument for the increasing function α↦αk\alpha \mapsto \alpha^kα↦αk is needed. In general dimension the combinatorial constant (k+d−1k)\binom{k+d-1}{k}(kk+d−1​) comes from a sharper counting than the two-dimensional computation of Section 5.3, and that argument is in the cited paper rather than in the book.

Formalization scope

Decisions live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), samples of size mmm are maps Fin m → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P) for a probability measure P, and the violation is the real number (P {δ | θ ∉ Θδ δ}).toReal. Events over samples are compared in ℝ≥0∞ with ENNReal.ofReal of the book's right-hand side. The removal procedure is an arbitrary map I : (Fin N → Δ) → Finset (Fin N) with (I ω).card = k, and θk is a map that, for every sample, solves the program without the constraints in I ω, and violates each of them with probability one. The following implicit hypotheses of the book are written as binders:

  • d≥1d \ge 1d≥1, d≤Nd \le Nd≤N, k≤Nk \le Nk≤N and ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon \in [0,1]ε∈[0,1];
  • Assumption 3.6 for every mmm, including m=0m = 0m=0, and for every sample (not almost every);
  • the removed constraints are violated with probability one (∀ᵐ ω ∂ℙ^N), the book's own hypothesis on p. 65, so (5.11) is an inclusion up to a null set as on the page; requiring the violation for every sample would be unsatisfiable for 1≤k<N1 \le k < N1≤k<N (on a sample with all δi\delta_iδi​ equal a kept constraint coincides with a removed one) and would make the results vacuous;
  • measurability, which the book glosses over (p. 33): the constraint relation {(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ}\{(\theta,\delta) : \theta \in \Theta_\delta\}{(θ,δ):θ∈Θδ​} is jointly measurable, the solution map of the scenario program with mmm constraints is measurable for every mmm, and θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ is measurable;
  • for Theorem 1.2 and Section 3.3.1: k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 (formula (1.9) divides by k\sqrt kk​), N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1); Section 3.3.1 additionally assumes εk≤1\varepsilon_k \le 1εk​≤1, the range in which its chain of inequalities holds.

Theorem 1.2 is stated in the constraint formulation of Chapter 3, to which the book says it "straightforwardly generalizes" (p. 20), with the hypotheses of Theorem 3.9 from which Section 3.3.1 derives it. Eq. (5.14) and the closing display of Section 5.3 are stated for d=2d = 2d=2 only, as in the book.

A trivializing formalization is excluded: the removal procedure is universally quantified, the solutions are exact minimizers rather than arbitrary feasible points, and the event is the strict V(θk∗)>εV(\theta^*_k) > \varepsilonV(θk∗​)>ε; a statement for one fixed rule, or with θk∗\theta^*_kθk∗​ unconstrained, would be a different theorem.

A complete development needs: product measures and Fubini over Fin N → Δ, reindexing of the kept constraints as a sample of size N−kN-kN−k, the Beta form of the binomial tail (the platform's binomial_upper_tail_eq_incomplete_beta is available), and stochastic domination for monotone integrands. Solution-map and violation infrastructure is shared with the sibling missions of this series. Contributions on any milestone, including the general-ddd counting argument of the cited paper, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM/MOS, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, A sampling-and-discarding approach to chance-constrained optimization: feasibility and optimality, Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 148(2), 257–280, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10957-010-9754-6
  • M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19(3), 1211–1230, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • G. C. Calafiore and M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51(5), 742–753, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to the Scenario Approach IV: The FAST Algorithm Keeps the Beta Bound and Adds a Factor (1−ε)^{N₂}Textbook

Motivation

The scenario approach turns an optimization problem under uncertainty into a finite, data-driven program: sample NNN instances of the uncertain parameter, optimize against all of them, and certify how often the resulting design fails on a new instance. Its main guarantee (Theorem 3.7 of Campi and Garatti's Introduction to the Scenario Approach) bounds the probability of failure by a binomial tail in NNN and in the number ddd of optimization variables. To reach a failure level ε\varepsilonε with confidence 1−β1-\beta1−β, the number of scenarios grows roughly like 2ε(ln⁡1β+d−1)\frac{2}{\varepsilon}\big(\ln\frac1\beta+d-1\big)ε2​(lnβ1​+d−1) (Theorem 1.1 of the book). The product of ddd and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε is what makes medium- and large-scale designs expensive: each scenario is one more constraint in the program that has to be solved.

FAST (Fast Algorithm for the Scenario Technique), introduced by Carè, Garatti and Campi in Operations Research 62 (2014), removes that product. It solves the program with a moderate number N1N_1N1​ of scenarios and then, instead of re-optimizing, raises the returned cost level until it covers N2N_2N2​ further scenarios. The book presents the algorithm and its guarantee, Theorem 8.5, in §8.3, and refers to the paper for the proof. This mission formalizes that guarantee.

Timeline:

  • 2006, Calafiore and Campi: violation bounds for the solution of convex scenario programs.
  • 2008, Campi and Garatti: the exact binomial bound, tight for fully supported problems (Theorem 3.7 of the book).
  • 2014, Carè, Garatti and Campi: FAST and its two-stage bound, Eq. (8.5).
  • 2018, Campi and Garatti's textbook, §8.3, the source of this mission.

Setting

Let Δ\DeltaΔ be a measurable space carrying a probability measure P\mathbb PP, and let ℓ(ν,δ)\ell(\nu,\delta)ℓ(ν,δ) be a real loss of a decision ν∈Rd−1\nu\in\mathbb R^{d-1}ν∈Rd−1 under the uncertain parameter δ∈Δ\delta\in\Deltaδ∈Δ. As a standing assumption of the book, ℓ(⋅,δ)\ell(\cdot,\delta)ℓ(⋅,δ) is convex for every δ\deltaδ.

Given scenarios δ1,…,δm\delta_1,\dots,\delta_mδ1​,…,δm​ drawn independently from P\mathbb PP, the scenario program (1.4) is

min⁡ν∈Rd−1 [max⁡i=1,…,m ℓ(ν,δi)].\min_{\nu\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}\ \Big[\max_{i=1,\dots,m}\ \ell(\nu,\delta_i)\Big].ν∈Rd−1min​ [i=1,…,mmax​ ℓ(ν,δi​)].

Its solution is ν∗\nu^*ν∗ and its optimal value ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗. Assumption 3.6 requires that for every mmm and every sample the solution exist and be unique. The pair (ν,ℓ)(\nu,\ell)(ν,ℓ) has ddd components, and ddd is the number that enters every bound.

The risk (Definition 8.2) of a decision ν\nuν with cost level ℓ\ellℓ is

R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ∈Δ: ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ},R(\nu,\ell)=\mathbb P\{\delta\in\Delta:\ \ell(\nu,\delta)>\ell\},R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ∈Δ: ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ},

the probability that a new instance costs more than promised. It is the violation V(ν,ℓ)V(\nu,\ell)V(ν,ℓ) of the epigraphic constraint ℓ≥ℓ(ν,δ)\ell\ge\ell(\nu,\delta)ℓ≥ℓ(ν,δ).

FAST takes N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ independent scenarios. It solves (1.4) with the first N1N_1N1​ of them, obtaining νN1∗\nu^*_{N_1}νN1​∗​. In the detuning step it then sets

ℓF∗=max⁡i=1,…,N1+N2 ℓ(νN1∗,δi),\ell^*_F=\max_{i=1,\dots,N_1+N_2}\ \ell(\nu^*_{N_1},\delta_i),ℓF∗​=i=1,…,N1​+N2​max​ ℓ(νN1​∗​,δi​),

the smallest level that covers every scenario seen. The output is (νF∗,ℓF∗)(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)(νF∗​,ℓF∗​) with νF∗=νN1∗\nu^*_F=\nu^*_{N_1}νF∗​=νN1​∗​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.5, Eq. (8.5)

For every ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1],

PN1+N2{V(νF∗,ℓF∗)>ε} ≤ (1−ε)N2∑i=0d−1(N1i)εi(1−ε)N1−i.\mathbb P^{N_1+N_2}\{V(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)>\varepsilon\}\ \le\ (1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom{N_1}{i}\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N_1-i}.PN1​+N2​{V(νF∗​,ℓF∗​)>ε} ≤ (1−ε)N2​i=0∑d−1​(iN1​​)εi(1−ε)N1​−i.

No relation between N1N_1N1​ and ddd is required. When N1<dN_1<dN1​<d the sum equals 111 and the bound reads (1−ε)N2(1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}(1−ε)N2​.

Milestone: Theorem 3.7 for program (1.4)

The first stage is an ordinary scenario program with N1N_1N1​ scenarios. For N≥dN\ge dN≥d,

PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε} ≤ ∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i,\mathbb P^N\{R(\nu^*,\ell^*)>\varepsilon\}\ \le\ \sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom{N}{i}\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i},PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε} ≤ i=0∑d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i,

that is, R(ν∗,ℓ∗)R(\nu^*,\ell^*)R(ν∗,ℓ∗) is dominated by a B(d,N−d+1)B(d,N-d+1)B(d,N−d+1) distribution (recalled on p. 90).

Milestone: the N2N_2N2​ rule

For ε,β∈(0,1)\varepsilon,\beta\in(0,1)ε,β∈(0,1), N2≥1εln⁡1βN_2\ge\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaN2​≥ε1​lnβ1​ makes the right-hand side of (8.5) at most β\betaβ (p. 95).

Significance

The result. Theorem 8.5 makes the guarantee of the scenario approach cheap to obtain. With N1=KdN_1=KdN1​=Kd (the book suggests K≈20K\approx20K≈20) and N2≥1εln⁡1βN_2\ge\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaN2​≥ε1​lnβ1​, the total number of scenarios is Kd+1εln⁡1βKd+\frac1\varepsilon\ln\frac1\betaKd+ε1​lnβ1​. This is additive in ddd and 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε rather than multiplicative, and the added N2N_2N2​ scenarios cost only function evaluations, not a larger optimization. The price is suboptimality: ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is in general higher than the value a classical scenario program with the same confidence would return.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper, in the cited 2014 article; the book states it without proof. No part of the scenario theory has been machine-checked on this platform, as far as a search of the catalog shows. The mission produces a checked two-stage bound whose first stage is the loss-function form of Theorem 3.7, which is reusable by every mission of the series that works with program (1.4). The N2N_2N2​ rule is an elementary but explicit sample-size certificate.

Difficulty

The obvious route treats the detuning step as a fresh scenario program with N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios and applies Theorem 3.7 to it. That fails: νF∗\nu^*_FνF∗​ is not the solution of that program, and Theorem 3.7 with N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios gives a bound that is not of the product form (8.5). The level ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ depends on all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios at once, including those that determined νN1∗\nu^*_{N_1}νN1​∗​, and the map c↦R(ν,c)c\mapsto R(\nu,c)c↦R(ν,c) is monotone but need not be continuous, so the event V(νF∗,ℓF∗)>εV(\nu^*_F,\ell^*_F)>\varepsilonV(νF∗​,ℓF∗​)>ε is not a simple event about the new scenarios. Underneath the goal sits Theorem 3.7 itself, which is the main theorem of the book and whose proof occupies Chapter 5.

Formalization scope

Lean representation:

  • The decision space Rd−1\mathbb R^{d-1}Rd−1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); the book's ddd is written n+1n+1n+1, never with natural-number subtraction.
  • A sample of size mmm is ω : Fin m → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P), and the same P\mathbb PP defines the risk. FAST draws one sample ω : Fin (N₁ + N₂) → Δ; its first stage is ω ∘ Fin.castAdd N₂.
  • The maximum in (1.4) and in ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is Finset.sup' over a nonempty index set. ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ runs over all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios, not over the N2N_2N2​ new ones only.
  • The risk is (P {δ | c < ℓ ν δ}).toReal, with the strict inequality of Definition 8.2 and the strict event V>εV>\varepsilonV>ε of (8.5). Probabilities of sample events are compared in ℝ≥0∞ through ENNReal.ofReal.
  • The first-stage solution is a map νstar from samples to decisions, with the hypothesis that νstar ω₁ solves the program for every sample ω₁.

Hypotheses the book leaves implicit, stated explicitly:

  1. ℓ(⋅,δ)\ell(\cdot,\delta)ℓ(⋅,δ) is convex for every δ\deltaδ (standing assumption, p. 6).
  2. Existence and uniqueness of the solution (Assumption 3.6) for every m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and every sample. The program with no scenario has no minimum, so m=0m=0m=0 is excluded.
  3. N1≥1N_1\ge1N1​≥1, since the first stage needs a scenario.
  4. ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1]; for ε>1\varepsilon>1ε>1 the factor (1−ε)N2(1-\varepsilon)^{N_2}(1−ε)N2​ can be negative.
  5. The loss is jointly measurable in (ν,δ)(\nu,\delta)(ν,δ) and the first-stage solution map is measurable. The book glosses over measurability (p. 6, footnote 1; p. 33).

A formalization that bounds only the N2N_2N2​ new scenarios is ruled out, because ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ is defined as a maximum over all N1+N2N_1+N_2N1​+N2​ scenarios. So is one that takes ℓF∗\ell^*_FℓF∗​ as a free variable or drops Assumption 3.6: the goal is stated for the output of FAST as the book defines it.

A complete development needs the scenario program in loss form, product-measure conditioning on ΔN1×ΔN2\Delta^{N_1}\times\Delta^{N_2}ΔN1​×ΔN2​, and Theorem 3.7. The loss-form Theorem 3.7 is the reusable piece. Proofs of the milestones and of intermediate conditioning lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM, 2018, §8.3 and Theorem 3.7. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • A. Carè, S. Garatti, M. C. Campi, FAST—Fast Algorithm for the Scenario Technique, Operations Research 62(3):662–671, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1257
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19(3):1211–1230, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/07069821X
  • G. C. Calafiore, M. C. Campi, The scenario approach to robust control design, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 51(5):742–753, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2006.875041
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Elements of Queueing Theory IV: PASTA and the Formulas of Palm CalculusTextbook

PASTA and the Formulas of Palm Calculus

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds Palm calculus. Chapter 2 settles when a queue has a stationary regime. Chapter 3 is called simply Formulas, and it is what the first two chapters were for: it computes.

The pattern is always the same. A quantity of interest is observed two ways — from a clock fixed in time, and from an arriving customer — and Palm calculus converts between them. Little's law, the Pollaczek–Khinchin formula and the rate conservation principle are all instances.

The goal

Theorem 3.3.1 (p.211) is the one that says when the two views coincide.

This classical result of queueing theory states, in rough terms, that if the arrival point process is Poisson, operational characteristics of the system computed just before arrival times and at arbitrary times are the same (Poisson Arrivals See Time Averages). Some care must be exercised in the application of this principle, and we now give a precise statement, in the θ_t-framework.

E⁰_A[f(Z(0))] = E[f(Z(0))]                                                            (3.3.1)

for every F_t-predictable, flow-compatible {Z(t)} and every non-negative measurable f, whenever A admits the constant F_t-intensity λ; and, under ergodicity,

lim_N (1/N) Σ_{n=1}^N f(Z(T_n)) = lim_T (1/T) ∫_0^T f(Z(s)) ds .                       (3.3.2)

The "some care" is the word predictable. PASTA is false without it: an arrival that changes the state it then observes does not see the time average, and that is exactly what predictability — measurability for the F_t-predictable σ-field, generated by the sets (a,b] × A with A ∈ F_a — rules out.

The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, not "A is Poisson". By Watanabe's theorem the two are equivalent, but that equivalence is a remark on the page and not part of this theorem.

Why it earns its place: Pollaczek–Khinchin

§3.4 derives formulas from conservation equations. Applying the rate conservation principle of Chapter 1 to Y(t) = e^{iuW(t)} in a GI/GI/1/∞ queue gives Takács' formula

iu E[e^{iuW(0)}] = λ E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] (E[e^{iuσ_0}] − 1) + iu(1 − ρ) ,                (3.4.44)

an identity between a stationary expectation and a Palm expectation of the workload just before an arrival. One substitution turns it into a closed form — and that substitution is PASTA. When the arrivals are Poisson, E⁰_A[e^{iuW(0−)}] = E[e^{iuW(0)}], and

E[e^{iuW(0)}] = iu(1 − ρ) / ( iu − λ(Ψ_σ(u) − 1) ) ,                                   (3.4.45)

the Pollaczek–Khinchin characteristic function formula. The most quoted formula in single-server queueing theory is one application of this mission's goal theorem.

The rest of the chapter

§3.1 carries Little's formula to fluid queues. Lemma 3.1.1 is the set identity that turns the fluid workload into an integral against the arrival measure — the same two instants described from the server's side and from the arrivals' side.

§3.2 applies Campbell's formula to rare events. Lemma 3.2.1 gives a closed form, in a countable-state Markov chain, for the mean time to make an excursion to a rare set and return; its two expressions count the same cycle rate from the two ends. Theorem 3.2.1 generalizes Keilson's asymptotic equivalence to a stationary θ_t-compatible process, replacing cycles by thinnings of the entrance processes of two disjoint sets.

§3.5 applies the stochastic intensity integration formula to a superposition of on-off fluid sources. Lemma 3.5.1 identifies a conditional expectation with a Palm expectation through Papangelou's theorem — the mean workload while a source is idle equals the mean workload that source sees when it wakes. Lemma 3.5.2 measures the gap between the two Palm expectations of the workload taken with respect to a source's start process and its fluid process.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, queueing_general_littles_law, is Stidham's deterministic sample-path law; its own docstring disclaims probability, expectation, stationarity, ergodicity and FIFO. Baccelli's L = λW is the Palm identity for a stationary ergodic marked point process, derived from the inversion formula (1.2.25) — an identity between an expectation under P and a Palm expectation under P⁰_N, not a pathwise limit. Different framework, different hypotheses, and neither implies the other.

Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in the form this chapter needs, and no stochastic intensity.

Formalization scope

  • PASTA carries both displays. (3.3.1) is an equality in [0, ∞] for every non-negative measurable f. (3.3.2) asserts that, P-almost surely, both averages converge in [0, ∞] to one common limit, so both limits exist. Predictability is measurability for the predictable σ-field P(F_t) of p.55. The concrete form Z(t,ω) = v(t, θ_t ω) of (1.8.1) is not used as the hypothesis, because for a general history it is strictly weaker. The hypothesis is the constant F_t-intensity, E[A(a,b] | F_a] = λ(b − a), and not "A is Poisson".
  • Takács (3.4.44) and Pollaczek–Khinchin (3.4.45) are stated for every real u, and for u ≠ 0 respectively. Their hypotheses are the page's: σ_n is independent of W(T_n−) under P⁰_A, E⁰_A[e^{iuσ_0}] = E[e^{iuσ_0}], P(W(0) = 0) = 1 − ρ, and ρ < 1. The workload is a measurable, flow-compatible solution of Lindley's equation. (3.4.45) adds PASTA's hypotheses for {W(t−)}, and it asserts that its denominator is non-zero.
  • Lemma 3.2.1 asserts both closed forms of E_α R. The chain is irreducible, F is non-empty, and hitting times are counted from time 0.
  • Theorem 3.2.1 asserts the equality in (3.2.43), the convergence to 1, and E⁰_{F_n(→A)}[τ(F_n)] · Λ_n → 1. Its hypotheses are the section's standing ones: P is flow-invariant, {X(t)} is flow-compatible, and A and every F_n are regular and disjoint.
  • Lemmas 3.5.1 and 3.5.2 are stated for the full on-off model of §3.5.3. The on-off point processes are independent, their on periods, off periods and fluid functions are i.i.d. and independent, P⁰_{A^i} is the Palm probability of the random measure A^i, and the workload is the stationary solution of the fluid-queue equation. Lemma 3.5.1 is an identity in [0, ∞]. Lemma 3.5.2 assumes that E⁰_{A^i}[W(0)] and the expectation defining C_i are finite.

A formalization that makes Palm probability an opaque measure with the formulas as axioms, or that weakens predictability to adaptedness, trivializes this mission or makes it false, and is out of scope.

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Elements of Queueing Theory III: Stationary Regimes of Stochastic RecurrencesTextbook

Stationary Regimes of Stochastic Recurrences

Background

Chapter 2 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory asks when a queue has a stationary regime. §§2.1–2.4 answer it for the single-server and multiserver queues by Loynes' monotone construction. §§2.5 and 2.11 answer it for the general object those constructions are instances of: a stochastic recurrence

W_{n+1} = h(W_n, ξ_n),

driven by a sequence {ξ_n} compatible with an ergodic shift θ. Two questions arise, and this mission is about both.

Exact sampling, and what "exact" means

§2.5.3 treats the finite-state case. An ergodic transition matrix on E = {1, …, r} has a stationary law π, and the classical way to sample it is to run the chain and wait. That gives a sample whose law converges to π and is never equal to it.

Coupling from the past (Propp and Wilson, 1996) does better. Run one chain from every state, all sharing a single array {ξ_k(i)} of i.i.d. uniforms indexed by time and current state, started further and further in the past. Once two chains meet they stay together, so eventually all r coalesce before time 0 — and Theorem 2.5.1 says the common value they reach has the distribution π exactly. Theorem 2.5.2 makes it practical: if the updating function preserves a partial order with a least and a greatest state, and a single uniform sequence drives every chain, the two extremal chains funnel all the others and their coalescence suffices.

Neither theorem is a statement about a program. Each says that a random variable is almost surely finite, and that another has a distribution equal to π.

Renovating events: sufficient, and then necessary

§2.5.4 treats the general case, through Borovkov's idea. An event A_n is renovating of length m when, on it, W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}) — the sequence's value m steps ahead forgets where it came from. Theorem 2.5.3 turns a condition on how often renovating events occur into the existence of a finite stationary solution Z with Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ), and into strong backwards coupling: W_n ∘ θ^{-n} is not merely convergent to Z but equal to it after a finite random index.

Corollary 2.5.1 makes the limit independent of the initial condition — one stationary regime, reached from every starting point. Theorem 2.5.4 is the converse: for ℝ₊^K-valued recurrences with a constant initial condition, strong backwards coupling produces renovating events. So the method characterises stability rather than merely detecting it.

The saturation rule

§2.11 treats the multidimensional case, where the state is a vector and the natural models are monotone and homogeneous. Theorem 2.11.1, due to Crandall and Tartar, is the key that unlocks it: under homogeneity, monotone and non-expansive are the same property. That is what puts these models within reach of Kingman's subadditive ergodic theorem, and Theorem 2.11.2 collects the payoff — asymptotic growth rates γ̄ and γ_ exist, both almost surely and in L¹, and do not depend on the initial condition.

The goal

Queueing folklore has a rule of thumb for the stability of an open network: saturate the queues fed by the external stream, measure the departure intensity µ of the saturated system, and declare the network stable when λ < µ. The book is careful that this saturation rule "does not hold for all systems".

Theorem 2.11.3 (p.166), "the main result on the stability region", proves it for Monotone-Homogeneous-Separable networks:

If lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s., then λ γ(0) ≥ 1.    If λ γ(0) > 1, then lim Z_{[-n,0]} → ∞ a.s.

Here γ(c) is the growth rate of the network fed by the scaled process cN, so c = 0 places every arrival at the origin: γ(0) is exactly the saturated system's rate, and µ = γ(0)⁻¹.

Two implications, with a gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 that the book leaves open — as it leaves open the critical case ρ = 1 of Loynes' theorem. Closing it would assert more than is proved.

What this mission provides

Nothing here is on the platform or in Mathlib. There is no coupling from the past, no theory of renovating events, and no Crandall–Tartar theorem. Order/Hom/* has monotone maps and Topology/MetricSpace/* has LipschitzWith 1, which is the right ambient notion for non-expansiveness in the sup-norm, but the equivalence between them under homogeneity is absent.

Formalization scope

  • The standing assumptions of §2.5.1 (p.104) are part of every §2.5.4 statement: (P⁰, θ) is ergodic and {ξ_n} is compatible with θ. The relation Z ∘ θ = h(Z, ξ) holds P⁰-a.s.
  • Theorem 2.5.4 is stated for {W_n^{[C]}}, the sequence its proof on p.119 builds the renovating events for. The page prints {W_n^{[0]}} in the conclusion, and that version is false. Corollary 2.5.1 uses the renovating condition of (2.5.14), W_{n+m} = Φ(ξ_n, …, ξ_{n+m-1}), where the page prints W_n.
  • Theorem 2.11.2 carries all four limits, a.s. and in expectation, for every integrable ℝ^K-valued random initial condition Y, under the book's linear lower bound E[X_n^{[0]}] > −Cn.
  • The goal is stated on the Palm space of a stationary ergodic marked point process: T_0 = 0, T_n ∘ θ = T_{n+1} − T_1, ξ_n ∘ θ = ξ_{n+1}, E⁰τ_n = λ^{-1}, E⁰Z_n < ∞. The map X satisfies (2.11.16) (it depends only on the points and marks in the index window) and the four framework assumptions for every point process. γ(0) is the a.s. limit of Z_{[-n,-1]}(0·N)/n. Dropping the marks would reduce the theorem to deterministic service, and dropping the link between the points and θ makes the second implication false. Neither is done.
  • Stating only one of the goal's two implications, or collapsing them into an equivalence, would be a different theorem. Both implications are stated, with the gap between ≥ 1 and > 1 left open.
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ProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Elements of Queueing Theory II: The Loynes Stability Theorem and CouplingTextbook

The Loynes Stability Theorem and Coupling

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory builds a calculus for stationary queues. Chapter 2 asks the prior question: when is there a stationary queue at all?

The G/G/1/∞ queue is one server at unit rate, infinite waiting room, fed by a stationary marked point process {(T_n, σ_n)} — arrival epochs and required service times. Its workload W(t), the service still owed by the server, obeys Lindley's equation between arrivals:

W(t) = (W(T_n−) + σ_n − (t − T_n))⁺,    t ∈ [T_n, T_{n+1}).                          (2.1.6)

Nothing in that equation says a solution exists on the whole line, let alone a stationary one. The answer is a sharp criterion in the traffic intensity ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0].

The goal

Theorem 2.1.1 (p.80), which the book calls "the fundamental result of stability". Under ρ < 1 there is a unique finite workload process on all of ℝ, compatible with the flow, and it is given explicitly by the Loynes supremum

W(0) = sup_{n ≤ 0} ( T_n + Σ_{i=n}^{0} σ_i )⁺ ,                                      (2.1.12)

with W(T_n−) = 0 for infinitely many negative and infinitely many positive n (2.1.13). If ρ > 1 there is no finite stationary workload process at all.

Each half earns its place. The supremum is what "the Loynes construction" means: look back from the origin, take the work brought by customers n, …, 0 less the time −T_n since elapsed, and maximise over how far back you look. The ρ > 1 half is what turns ρ < 1 from a sufficient condition into a criterion. The critical case ρ = 1 is an explicit non-result in the book — there "may or may not" be a stationary workload — and is deliberately absent from the statement.

The route, and what it produces on the way

§2.2 proves the theorem by Loynes' monotone scheme on the Palm space, and two of its steps are worth stating in their own right.

Lemma 2.2.1 (p.87) is the uniqueness engine: a non-negative, a.s. finite Z with Z − Z∘θ ∈ L¹(P⁰) has E⁰[Z − Z∘θ] = 0. Applied to the difference of two stationary solutions, it forces that difference to be invariant, and ergodicity then forces it to be zero.

Theorem 2.2.1 (p.90) runs the argument backwards. Its section is titled "Queueing Proof of the Ergodic Theorem", and it is exactly that: the queueing construction yields the pointwise ergodic theorem, in the ratio form

lim_n ( Σ_{i=0}^n σ∘θ^{-i} ) / ( Σ_{i=0}^n τ∘θ^{-i} ) = E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ],    P⁰-a.s.

Mathlib has the mean (von Neumann) ergodic theorem and no pointwise one, so this is absent substrate rather than a restatement.

Three extensions

The multiserver queue (§2.3). With s servers and the least-loaded-server rule, the state is the ordered workload vector obeying the Kiefer–Wolfowitz recurrence, and the criterion becomes E⁰[σ] < s E⁰[τ] (Theorem 2.3.1, p.93). Here uniqueness fails: p.94 exhibits a two-point space with a whole interval of stationary solutions. What survives is that the solution set is bracketed — M_∞ is minimal, and V^∞_∞ is the largest finite solution (Theorem 2.3.2, p.95).

Coupling (§2.4). Theorem 2.4.1 (p.99) is what "reaches the stationary regime" means: if a sequence couples with a θ-compatible one, then the law of its whole shifted trajectory converges in variation to the stationary trajectory's. The proof is one inequality, |P̃_{X,k} − P̃_{Z,k}| ≤ P(N > k), and the finiteness of the coupling time.

The fluid queue (§2.7). Theorem 2.7.1 (p.131) replaces customers by two θ_t-compatible random measures, the arrivals A and the service capacity C, and recovers the Loynes supremum W(t) = sup_{u ≤ t}(A_{u,t} − C_{u,t}) under λ < µ — as the minimal solution, the book claiming no uniqueness here.

Formalization scope

  • ρ = λE⁰_A[σ_0] takes values in [0, ∞], so an input with E⁰_A[σ_0] = ∞ has ρ = ∞ and falls under the non-existence half rather than being read as ρ = 0.
  • The explicit formulas are carried: the Loynes supremum (2.1.12) with the boundedness of its set as a conclusion, the construction points (2.1.13), the ratio limit E⁰[σ]/E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.2.1, the threshold s E⁰[τ] of Theorem 2.3.1, and the fluid supremum (2.7.7).
  • Identities between random variables hold almost surely, as in the book: the workload equations, (2.1.12)–(2.1.13), (2.7.7), and the solutions of (2.3.2). A statement "for every sample point" would be false, because on a null invariant set of sample paths no finite solution exists.
  • Uniqueness in Theorem 2.1.1 is among measurable, θ_t-compatible workload processes; maximality in Theorem 2.3.2 is among measurable finite solutions; the coupling time of Theorem 2.4.1 is a random variable. A formalization that dropped the explicit supremum, or the ρ > 1 half, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out.

What this mission provides

None of it is on the platform or in Mathlib. The nearest platform item, single_server_queueing_convergence_of_subcritical, presupposes a stationary workload and proves two-time finite-dimensional convergence to it; Theorem 2.1.1 constructs that workload, proves it unique, gives it in closed form, and adds the non-existence half. Different conclusion, different generality, different Mathlib revision.

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AnalysisProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Elements of Queueing Theory Ib: Ergodicity and Stochastic IntensityTextbook

Ergodicity and Stochastic Intensity

Background

Chapter 1 of Baccelli and Brémaud's Elements of Queueing Theory has two halves. The first builds Palm calculus from the Matthes definition of P⁰_N and reaches the Swiss army formula. This mission is the second: §§1.6, 1.8 and 1.9, which supply the two things the rest of the book runs on.

Ergodic theory, quoted

§1.6 states, in its own words, "the ergodic theory results to be used later in this book". Five of them, and the book proves none: Birkhoff's pointwise ergodic theorem in discrete (Theorem 1.6.1) and continuous time (Theorem 1.6.4), Kingman's sub-additive ergodic theorem (Theorem 1.6.2), and the extremal characterizations of ergodicity in both settings (Theorems 1.6.3 and 1.6.5) — ergodicity is exactly the impossibility of splitting an invariant probability into two distinct ones.

They are quoted, but they are not decoration. Kingman's theorem is what produces the asymptotic growth rates of Theorem 2.11.2 and the constant γ(c) on which the saturation rule rests. Birkhoff's theorem is what makes the time average in PASTA's (3.3.2) a well-defined object, and what the fluid Loynes theorem invokes for lim_{u→−∞}(A_{u,0} − C_{u,0}) = −∞.

None of the three analytic ones exists in Mathlib. Analysis/InnerProductSpace/MeanErgodic is the mean (von Neumann, L²) theorem, not almost-everywhere convergence, and there is no sub-additive ergodic theorem at all. The platform has neither.

Predictability, and why PASTA can be stated

§1.8 introduces the stochastic intensity: a point process N admits the (P, F_t)-intensity {λ(t)} when E[N(a,b] 1_A] = E[(∫_a^b λ(t)dt) 1_A] for A ∈ F_a. Around it sits the notion of a predictable process — one measurable with respect to the strict past.

Theorem 1.8.1 is the structural fact that makes predictability usable. For the internal history of a marked point process, every predictable process has the concrete form

Z(t, ω) = v(t, θ_t ω),    v(t, ·) F_{0−}-measurable.                                   (1.8.1)

That is why mission IV can take this form as PASTA's hypothesis rather than constructing a predictable σ-field: Theorem 1.8.1 says nothing is lost.

The goal

Theorem 1.8.2 (p.61), §1.8.4, Watanabe's characterization of Poisson processes. For a history F_t = F_t^N ∨ G and a G-measurable, locally integrable {λ(t)}, if N admits the F_t-intensity {λ(t)} then N is a G-conditional Poisson process:

E[ e^{iuN(a,b]} | G ∨ F^N_a ] = exp{ (e^{iu} − 1) ∫_a^b λ(t) dt } .                    (1.8.12)

A stochastic intensity that carries no information beyond G forces the process to be Poisson conditionally on G, with the compensator as the parameter — and the conditional characteristic function is the exact Poisson one, not an approximation. With G trivial and λ constant this is the ordinary Poisson process, which is the equivalence Remark 3.3.1 of Chapter 3 invokes to explain the name PASTA. The book: "This result plays a role in queueing theory, especially for proving that some streams in a queueing network are or are not Poissonian."

Palm probability meets stochastic intensity

§1.9 asks whether the stochastic intensity is the same under P and under P⁰_N — whether the two probabilities describe the same dynamics. Theorem 1.9.1 says yes, on ℝ₊: the same process {λ(t)} serves both.

Theorem 1.9.2 is Papangelou's theorem, and it is the deepest statement of the section: N admits a stochastic intensity if and only if P⁰_N ≪ P on F_{0−}, and then λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ the Radon–Nikodým derivative. A dynamic property and a static one turn out to be the same thing.

Theorem 1.9.3 is Mecke's characterization: N is Poisson exactly when P ≡ P⁰_N on F_{0−}. The view from a point of the process and the view from a deterministic instant agree on the strict past precisely when the process has no memory. It follows in one line from the two theorems before it.

What this mission provides

Four of the five missions in this series import the Chapter 1 substrate; this one adds the two pieces they need from its second half — ergodic theory and the stochastic intensity. Nothing here is on the platform, and Mathlib has filtrations and adapted processes but no predictability in this form, no stochastic intensity, no pointwise ergodic theorem and no Kingman.

Formalization scope

Every result is stated in the book's strength, with the book's standing definitions as binders. A discrete flow is a bijective, measurable, P⁰-preserving map (p.46); a continuous flow is jointly measurable in (t, ω) (p.3, clause (a)). A history compatible with the flow satisfies θ_t F_s = F_{s−t} (p.57), and an F_t-intensity is a non-negative, measurable, locally integrable, adapted process (p.58). The limits of Theorems 1.6.1, 1.6.2 and 1.6.4 are asserted to exist; Kingman's constant h̄ lies in ℝ ∪ {−∞} and is identified with inf_n (1/n) E⁰[h_n], the means being extended reals so that E⁰[h_n] = −∞ is not read as 0. Theorems 1.6.3, 1.6.5, 1.9.2 and 1.9.3 are equivalences, and Theorem 1.9.2 carries the closed form λ(t) = (μ ∘ θ_t)λ with μ = dP⁰_N/dP on F_{0−}. The goal's conclusion is the exact conditional characteristic function (1.8.12); a formalization that only asserted some conditional Poisson law, or conditioned on G alone, would not be this theorem.

13 thms2 active usersReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains II: The Single-Unit Single-Customer DecompositionTextbook

Motivation

A base-stock (order-up-to) policy orders, in every period, exactly enough to bring the inventory position (stock on hand plus stock on order minus backorders) up to a target level. It is the policy used in practice for repairable and consumable service parts, and the analysis of every later chapter of Muckstadt's book assumes it. Its optimality is therefore a foundational question, and there are three classical ways to prove it.

  • 1960, Clark and Scarf proved optimality of echelon base-stock policies for finite-horizon serial systems by dynamic programming, decomposing the cost into one term per echelon (Management Science 6(4)).
  • 1984, Federgruen and Zipkin gave a lower-bound argument for the infinite-horizon average-cost case (Operations Research 32(4)); Chen and Song (2001) used it for Markov-modulated demand (Operations Research 49(2)).
  • 2008, Muharremoglu and Tsitsiklis introduced the single-unit single-customer approach: every unit of stock is paired with one future customer, and the inventory problem splits into countably many independent two-action problems (Operations Research 56(5)).

This mission formalizes the third approach, in the finite-horizon single-location form presented in Section 2.2.1 of Muckstadt (2005).

Setting

A single item is reviewed in periods n=1,…,Nn = 1, \dots, Nn=1,…,N. An exogenous, time-homogeneous Markov chain sns_nsn​ on a finite set Σ\SigmaΣ is observed at the start of period nnn; given sn=ss_n = ssn​=s, the demand Dn∈{0,1,2,… }D_n \in \{0,1,2,\dots\}Dn​∈{0,1,2,…} has law κ(s,⋅)\kappa(s,\cdot)κ(s,⋅) and is independent of sn+1s_{n+1}sn+1​. Excess demand is backordered.

Every unit of demand is a customer, and customers are indexed in arrival order, the v0v_0v0​ initially waiting customers first. A customer's distance is 000 once served, 111 while waiting, and 2,3,…2, 3, \dots2,3,… for future customers in the order they will arrive. Units are indexed by location: 000 (used), 111 (on hand), 2,…,m2, \dots, m2,…,m (in transit) and m+1m+1m+1 (at the supplier, which holds countably many units). The state is

xn=(sn,(z1n,y1n),(z2n,y2n),…),x_n = \big(s_n, (z_{1n}, y_{1n}), (z_{2n}, y_{2n}), \dots\big),xn​=(sn​,(z1n​,y1n​),(z2n​,y2n​),…),

with zjnz_{jn}zjn​ the location of unit jjj and yjny_{jn}yjn​ the distance of customer jjj. In period nnn: units in transit move one location closer and the released units move from m+1m+1m+1 to mmm (so an order is on hand m−1m-1m−1 periods later); the demand DnD_nDn​ brings the customers at distances 2,…,Dn+12, \dots, D_n+12,…,Dn​+1 to distance 111 and moves the others DnD_nDn​ steps closer; units on hand serve waiting customers, lowest indices first; then hhh is charged per unit on hand and bbb per waiting customer, with 0<h<b0 < h < b0<h<b. The criterion is the expected cost over the NNN periods, discounted by α∈(0,1]\alpha \in (0,1]α∈(0,1].

A policy for the whole system S\mathcal SS chooses a finite set of units at the supplier to release. It is monotone if it releases lower-indexed units first, and committed if unit jjj only ever serves customer jjj. The subsystem Sw\mathcal S_wSw​ is unit www with customer www under commitment, with state xnw=(sn,zwn,ywn)x^w_n = (s_n, z_{wn}, y_{wn})xnw​=(sn​,zwn​,ywn​) and actions Release and Hold. The set Rn∗(s,y)R^*_n(s,y)Rn∗​(s,y) contains the optimal actions of a subsystem whose unit is at the supplier and whose customer is at distance yyy, and the critical distance is

y∗(n,s)=max⁡{ y:Rn∗(s,y)∋Release }.y^*(n,s) = \max\{\, y : R^*_n(s,y) \ni \mathit{Release} \,\}.y∗(n,s)=max{y:Rn∗​(s,y)∋Release}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 29)

Every policy that, in each period nnn and Markov state sns_nsn​, releases the lowest-indexed units at the supplier to raise the inventory position to

y∗(n,sn)−1y^*(n, s_n) - 1y∗(n,sn​)−1

is optimal for S\mathcal SS among all policies, from every starting state. Such a policy exists. The levels are not fixed numbers but the critical distances of the single-unit problem, so the goal asserts the structure of an optimal policy and identifies its levels, without committing to any constant.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 26): some monotone policy is optimal, every monotone policy is committed, and so some committed policy is optimal.
  2. Theorem 4 (p. 27): the optimal cost of S\mathcal SS is the sum over www of the optimal costs of Sw\mathcal S_wSw​,
V1S(s,x1)=∑wV1(s,(zw1,yw1)),V^{\mathcal S}_1(s, x_1) = \sum_{w} V_1\big(s, (z_{w1}, y_{w1})\big),V1S​(s,x1​)=w∑​V1​(s,(zw1​,yw1​)),

and managing every subsystem independently and optimally is optimal for S\mathcal SS. 3. Lemma 2 (p. 28): Rn∗(s,y+1)={Release}R^*_n(s, y+1) = \{\mathit{Release}\}Rn∗​(s,y+1)={Release} implies Release∈Rn∗(s,y)\mathit{Release} \in R^*_n(s, y)Release∈Rn∗​(s,y). 4. Section 2.2.1.2.2 (p. 29): the critical distance policy, release if and only if y≤y∗(n,s)y \le y^*(n,s)y≤y∗(n,s), is optimal for every subsystem.

Significance

The result shows that under Markov-modulated demand a single-location system is optimally run by a state-dependent base-stock policy. The same unit–customer argument gives echelon base-stock optimality in serial systems with noncrossing stochastic lead times (Sections 2.2.2–2.2.3). The decomposition also yields the levels themselves: they are the critical distances of a two-action problem, which can be solved one customer at a time.

The theorems are proved in the literature (Muharremoglu and Tsitsiklis 2008) and in the book. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of any base-stock optimality theorem exists, by dynamic programming or by decomposition. The book's proof is informal in three places a formalization has to settle:

  • Lemma 1 is asserted as "clearly" true;
  • Lemma 2's proof by contradiction covers only uniquely optimal releases, while the critical distance policy also needs the case of ties;
  • the passage from the subsystem policy to the inventory position (Theorem 5) is an "intuitive argument".

A formal development makes each of these precise.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says that costs are linear, so the cost of S\mathcal SS is the sum of unit–customer costs and everything decouples. That is only half of Theorem 4. The pairing of unit jjj with customer jjj holds only under monotone policies, and a general policy for S\mathcal SS observes the whole infinite state xnx_nxn​, not just xnwx^w_nxnw​. The lower bound therefore needs Lemma 1 together with the fact that extra information about the demand history does not help a Markov decision problem. The upper bound needs the lowest-index matching to cost no more than committed matching.

The second difficulty is that the threshold structure is not the obvious consequence of Lemma 2. The set of distances at which releasing is optimal must be shown to be an initial segment {1,…,y∗}\{1, \dots, y^*\}{1,…,y∗} when ties are allowed. Unbounded demand makes that set possibly unbounded (it is, in the last m−1m-1m−1 periods). Finally, the release decisions of the subsystems must be counted to recover an inventory position, which uses the invariant that future customers occupy consecutive distances.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the namespace ServiceParts.UnitDecomp, with three definition files.

Model. Model bundles the chain, the demand law, mmm, hhh, bbb and α\alphaα with the standing assumptions 1≤m1 \le m1≤m, 0<h<b0 < h < b0<h<b, 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1, together with the per-unit and per-customer motions and a generic finite-horizon expected-cost recursion. Costs are in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Subsystem. Subsystem defines a subsystem, its optimal cost, Rn∗R^*_nRn∗​, y∗(n,s)y^*(n,s)y∗(n,s) and the critical distance policy.

System. System defines S\mathcal SS with lowest-index matching, its policies (finite release sets), monotone and committed policies, starting states, the inventory position and the order-up-to release.

Conventions and pinnings:

  • Indexing. Units and customers are indexed from 000; Lean index jjj is the book's j+1j+1j+1.
  • Policy class. Policies are Markov: functions of the period, the Markov state and the configuration, as on p. 25.
  • Optimality. Optimal means attaining the infimum over all policies for S\mathcal SS. Restricting the class to monotone or base-stock policies would make Theorem 5 circular and is ruled out.
  • Starting states. The book's "any starting state x1x_1x1​" is the configuration built on pp. 23–24 from v0v_0v0​ and the stock at locations 1,…,m1, \dots, m1,…,m. For arbitrarily labelled states Theorem 4 is false.
  • Critical distance. y∗(n,s)y^*(n,s)y∗(n,s) is a supremum in N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}. Where it is ∞\infty∞ (a released unit cannot arrive before the horizon), Theorem 5 leaves the policy free.
  • Distance 0. Lemma 2 and the optimality of RnR_nRn​ are stated for customers at distance at least 1. At distance 0 with the unit at the supplier (a configuration committed policies never reach), both are false as printed.

Corrections to the book:

  • h>0h > 0h>0 is added. With h=0h = 0h=0 an optimal policy with finite orders need not exist, so Theorem 5 fails.
  • Chain structure is pinned. The chain's ergodicity is unused on a finite horizon and omitted. The conditional independence of DnD_nDn​ and sn+1s_{n+1}sn+1​ given sns_nsn​ is added as a reading of "given sns_nsn​, the distribution of DnD_nDn​ is known".
  • Vacuous corner. If some state's demand has infinite mean, every policy may cost ∞\infty∞ and the optimality statements hold vacuously.

Out of scope: stochastic noncrossing lead times (Section 2.2.2), serial systems (Section 2.2.3; compare the disproved platform statement SupplyChainTheory.clark_scarf_sequential), and continuous review (Section 2.2.4, which the book calls intuitive).

Proofs of any milestone are welcome. A reusable by-product would be a general lemma that Markov policies are optimal among history-dependent ones for finite-horizon problems with countable randomness and costs in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Selected references

  • J. A. Muckstadt, Analysis and Algorithms for Service Parts Supply Chains, Springer, 2005, Section 2.2, pp. 22–31. https://doi.org/10.1007/b138879
  • A. Muharremoglu and J. N. Tsitsiklis, A single-unit decomposition approach to multiechelon inventory systems, Operations Research 56(5), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0620
  • A. J. Clark and H. Scarf, Optimal policies for a multi-echelon inventory problem, Management Science 6(4), 1960. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.4.475
  • A. Federgruen and P. Zipkin, Computational issues in an infinite-horizon, multiechelon inventory model, Operations Research 32(4), 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.4.818
  • F. Chen and J.-S. Song, Optimal policies for multiechelon inventory problems with Markov-modulated demand, Operations Research 49(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.49.2.226.13528
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Convex OptimizationOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Introduction to the Scenario Approach III: The Risks of the Empirical Costs Follow an Ordered Dirichlet DistributionTextbook

Motivation

A scenario program replaces an uncertain optimization problem by its worst case over finitely many sampled instances. In its simplest form it reads

min⁡ν∈Rd−1[max⁡i=1,…,Nℓ(ν,δi)],\min_{\nu\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}\Big[\max_{i=1,\dots,N}\ell(\nu,\delta_i)\Big],ν∈Rd−1min​[i=1,…,Nmax​ℓ(ν,δi​)],

where ℓ(ν,δ)\ell(\nu,\delta)ℓ(ν,δ) is the cost of a decision ν\nuν when the uncertain parameter takes the value δ\deltaδ, and δ1,…,δN\delta_1,\dots,\delta_Nδ1​,…,δN​ are independent draws from an unknown probability P\mathbb PP. The classical guarantee of the scenario approach (Campi and Garatti, 2008) bounds the probability that a new instance produces a cost above the optimal value ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗, and it does so without any knowledge of P\mathbb PP.

That guarantee concerns a single number, ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗. Two scenario programs with the same NNN and the same optimal value can look very different at the solution: in one, most sampled costs lie just below ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗; in the other, they are widely scattered. The costs that do not determine the solution still carry information about how the cost of the chosen decision is distributed on future instances. Carè, Garatti and Campi (2015) showed that this information can be extracted with the same distribution-free character as the classical result, which is the subject of this mission. It is Chapter 8, §8.1 ("Probability box") of Campi and Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach (SIAM/MOS 2018), the third mission of the series formalizing that book.

Timeline:

  • 2008: Campi and Garatti prove that the violation of the scenario solution is dominated by a beta distribution B(d,N−d+1)B(d,N-d+1)B(d,N−d+1), with equality for fully supported problems (doi:10.1137/07069821X).
  • 2015: Carè, Garatti and Campi prove that the risks of all empirical costs from index ddd on have a joint ordered Dirichlet law (doi:10.1137/130928546).
  • 2018: the book states the result as Theorem 8.4 and draws the probability box from it.

Setting

Let Δ\DeltaΔ be a measurable space with a probability P\mathbb PP, and ℓ:Rd−1×Δ→R\ell:\mathbb R^{d-1}\times\Delta\to\mathbb Rℓ:Rd−1×Δ→R a cost that is convex in ν\nuν for every δ\deltaδ (a standing assumption of the book). For a sample (δ1,…,δN)(\delta_1,\dots,\delta_N)(δ1​,…,δN​) of independent draws from P\mathbb PP, let ν∗\nu^*ν∗ be the solution of the program above and ℓ∗=max⁡iℓ(ν∗,δi)\ell^*=\max_i\ell(\nu^*,\delta_i)ℓ∗=maxi​ℓ(ν∗,δi​) its optimal value.

Empirical costs (Definition 8.1). Sort the costs of the solution on the sampled scenarios in decreasing order, ℓ1∗≥ℓ2∗≥⋯≥ℓN∗\ell^*_1\ge\ell^*_2\ge\dots\ge\ell^*_Nℓ1∗​≥ℓ2∗​≥⋯≥ℓN∗​; so ℓ1∗=ℓ∗\ell^*_1=\ell^*ℓ1∗​=ℓ∗.

Risk (Definition 8.2). For a decision ν\nuν and a level ℓ\ellℓ, R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ:ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ}R(\nu,\ell)=\mathbb P\{\delta:\ell(\nu,\delta)>\ell\}R(ν,ℓ)=P{δ:ℓ(ν,δ)>ℓ}. The risk of the kkk-th empirical cost is Rk=R(ν∗,ℓk∗)R_k=R(\nu^*,\ell^*_k)Rk​=R(ν∗,ℓk∗​), and R1≤R2≤⋯≤RNR_1\le R_2\le\dots\le R_NR1​≤R2​≤⋯≤RN​.

Nondegeneracy (Definition 8.3). For every N≥dN\ge dN≥d, with probability 111, ℓd∗≠ℓd+1∗≠…≠ℓN∗\ell^*_d\ne\ell^*_{d+1}\ne\dots\ne\ell^*_Nℓd∗​=ℓd+1∗​=…=ℓN∗​. Costs with index below ddd are excluded because several scenarios typically attain the maximum at ν∗\nu^*ν∗.

Support constraints and full support (Definitions 5.1 and 5.4). In epigraph form, min⁡t\min tmint subject to t≥ℓ(ν,δi)t\ge\ell(\nu,\delta_i)t≥ℓ(ν,δi​), the constraint of scenario iii is a support constraint if removing it lowers the optimal value; the problem is fully supported if for every m≥dm\ge dm≥d the program with mmm scenarios has exactly ddd support constraints with probability 111.

The ordered Dirichlet distribution with parameters (d,1,…,1)(d,1,\dots,1)(d,1,…,1) is the law on {0≤αd≤⋯≤αN≤1}\{0\le\alpha_d\le\dots\le\alpha_N\le1\}{0≤αd​≤⋯≤αN​≤1} with density N!(d−1)!αdd−1\frac{N!}{(d-1)!}\alpha_d^{d-1}(d−1)!N!​αdd−1​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8.4

Under nondegeneracy, for N≥dN\ge dN≥d and all εd,…,εN\varepsilon_d,\dots,\varepsilon_Nεd​,…,εN​,

PN{Rd≤εd,…,RN≤εN}=N!(d−1)!∫0εdαdd−1∫0εd+1 ⁣ ⁣⋯∫0εN1{0≤αd≤⋯≤αN≤1} dαN⋯dαd.\mathbb P^N\{R_d\le\varepsilon_d,\dots,R_N\le\varepsilon_N\}=\frac{N!}{(d-1)!}\int_0^{\varepsilon_d}\alpha_d^{d-1}\int_0^{\varepsilon_{d+1}}\!\!\cdots\int_0^{\varepsilon_N}\mathbf 1_{\{0\le\alpha_d\le\dots\le\alpha_N\le1\}}\,\mathrm d\alpha_N\cdots\mathrm d\alpha_d .PN{Rd​≤εd​,…,RN​≤εN​}=(d−1)!N!​∫0εd​​αdd−1​∫0εd+1​​⋯∫0εN​​1{0≤αd​≤⋯≤αN​≤1}​dαN​⋯dαd​.

This is an identity of joint distribution functions, not a bound, and it does not depend on ℓ\ellℓ or P\mathbb PP.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.7 for the min-max program: PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i\mathbb P^N\{R(\nu^*,\ell^*)>\varepsilon\}\le\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}PN{R(ν∗,ℓ∗)>ε}≤∑i=0d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i for ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1].
  2. Fully supported problems: ℓ∗=ℓd∗\ell^*=\ell^*_dℓ∗=ℓd∗​ with probability 111.
  3. Marginal of RdR_dRd​ (a corollary of the goal): PN{Rd≤ε}=1−∑i=0d−1(Ni)εi(1−ε)N−i\mathbb P^N\{R_d\le\varepsilon\}=1-\sum_{i=0}^{d-1}\binom Ni\varepsilon^i(1-\varepsilon)^{N-i}PN{Rd​≤ε}=1−∑i=0d−1​(iN​)εi(1−ε)N−i, the beta law B(d,N−d+1)B(d,N-d+1)B(d,N−d+1).

Significance

The result. The theorem controls the whole distribution function of the cost ℓ(ν∗,δ)\ell(\nu^*,\delta)ℓ(ν∗,δ) of the scenario solution on a new instance, not just one quantile of it. Discarding the extreme tails of the laws of Rd,…,RNR_d,\dots,R_NRd​,…,RN​ yields, with a prescribed confidence 1−β1-\beta1−β, a region (the book's "probability box", Figure 8.2) that contains the entire cumulative distribution function of ℓ(ν∗,δ)\ell(\nu^*,\delta)ℓ(ν∗,δ), computed from the sample alone. The first marginal recovers the classical Theorem 3.7, since ℓ∗≥ℓd∗\ell^*\ge\ell^*_dℓ∗≥ℓd∗​ makes the risk of ℓ∗\ell^*ℓ∗ at most RdR_dRd​.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in Carè, Garatti and Campi (2015); the book states it and gives no proof. No machine-checked version of the scenario approach, of its generalization theorem, or of ordered Dirichlet laws of risks is known to exist. A formalization would produce a checked proof of the distribution-free identity together with the combinatorial and measure-theoretic infrastructure (order statistics of sampled costs, laws of random risks) that the rest of scenario theory reuses. The milestones separate the classical beta bound, which is also the goal of the first mission of this series, from the new exact joint law.

Difficulty

The obvious attempt treats Rd,…,RNR_d,\dots,R_NRd​,…,RN​ as the order statistics of the uniform variables 1−F(ℓ(ν∗,δi))1-F(\ell(\nu^*,\delta_i))1−F(ℓ(ν∗,δi​)). That works only for d=1d=1d=1, when the decision space is a point and the costs are independent. For d≥2d\ge2d≥2 the decision ν∗\nu^*ν∗ is itself a function of the whole sample, so the sampled costs at ν∗\nu^*ν∗ are neither independent nor identically distributed, and the ddd-th cost is tied to the scenarios that determine the solution. The factor αdd−1\alpha_d^{d-1}αdd−1​ and the constant N!/(d−1)!N!/(d-1)!N!/(d−1)! encode exactly this dependence. Any argument must account for which scenarios are active at ν∗\nu^*ν∗ without assuming full support, since the theorem holds whether or not ℓ∗=ℓd∗\ell^*=\ell^*_dℓ∗=ℓd∗​.

Formalization scope

The decision space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and the book's ddd is n+1n+1n+1; the sample is ω : Fin N → Δ with law Measure.pi (fun _ => P). Empirical costs are read from Tuple.sort with kkk counted from 111; risks are real numbers (P {δ | c < ℓ ν δ}).toReal. The right-hand side of the goal is a Lebesgue integral over the box ∏k[0,εk]\prod_k[0,\varepsilon_k]∏k​[0,εk​] intersected with the ordered simplex, stated for all real εk\varepsilon_kεk​. The solution map ω↦ν∗\omega\mapsto\nu^*ω↦ν∗ is a hypothesis-constrained function, never an arbitrary map.

Implicit hypotheses of the book pinned down in the binders:

  • ℓ(⋅,δ)\ell(\cdot,\delta)ℓ(⋅,δ) is convex for every δ\deltaδ (p. 6).
  • Existence and uniqueness of the solution of the program for every sample size m≥1m\ge1m≥1 and every sample; the book's Assumption 3.6 says "every mmm", but the program with no scenario has no solution.
  • Nondegeneracy for every sample size m≥dm\ge dm≥d, not only for the NNN of the theorem, as Definition 8.3 is written.
  • Joint measurability of (ν,δ)↦ℓ(ν,δ)(\nu,\delta)\mapsto\ell(\nu,\delta)(ν,δ)↦ℓ(ν,δ) and measurability of the solution map (measurability is glossed over in the book, p. 6 footnote 1 and p. 33).
  • N≥dN\ge dN≥d, and ε∈[0,1]\varepsilon\in[0,1]ε∈[0,1] in the binomial-form statements.

A statement in which the solution is an arbitrary measurable map, or in which the nondegeneracy or existence hypothesis is unsatisfiable, would make the goal vacuous; the hypotheses here are met, for example, by ℓ(ν,δ)=∥ν−δ∥2\ell(\nu,\delta)=\|\nu-\delta\|^2ℓ(ν,δ)=∥ν−δ∥2 with a continuous law on Rn\mathbb R^{n}Rn, and for d=1d=1d=1 by any cost independent of ν\nuν with an atomless law.

A complete development needs: the scenario approach generalization theorem (reusable across this series), laws of order statistics of i.i.d. uniform variables, and the combinatorics of support sets of convex min-max programs. Proofs of the milestones, of the d=1d=1d=1 case of the goal, and of auxiliary facts about kthLargest are all welcome.

Selected references

  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, Introduction to the Scenario Approach, MOS-SIAM Series on Optimization 26, SIAM, 2018. doi:10.1137/1.9781611975444
  • A. Carè, S. Garatti, M. C. Campi, Scenario min-max optimization and the risk of empirical costs, SIAM J. Optim. 25(4):2061–2080, 2015. doi:10.1137/130928546
  • M. C. Campi, S. Garatti, The exact feasibility of randomized solutions of uncertain convex programs, SIAM J. Optim. 19:1211–1230, 2008. doi:10.1137/07069821X
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Global Convergence of Splitting Methods for Nonconvex Composite Optimization III: For Semi-Algebraic Problems the ADMM Sequence Converges and Has Finite LengthResearch Paper

Motivation

The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is a standard method for problems of the form min⁡xh(x)+P(Mx)\min_x h(x)+P(\mathcal Mx)minx​h(x)+P(Mx), in which a smooth loss hhh is composed with a structured, possibly nonsmooth regularizer PPP through a linear map M\mathcal MM. Its convergence theory was developed for convex problems, yet it is routinely run on nonconvex ones: sparse recovery with the ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​ constraint, low-rank matrix problems, and total-variation-type models with nonconvex penalties. For such problems a practitioner wants a guarantee about the iterates actually produced, not only about the existence of good subsequences.

Li and Pong (arXiv:1407.0753v6, SIAM J. Optim. 25(4), 2015) gave the first such guarantee for the classical ADMM on nonconvex composite problems with a surjective M\mathcal MM. Their Theorem 1 shows that cluster points of the (proximal) ADMM are stationary; their Theorem 3, the subject of this mission, shows that for semi-algebraic data the whole sequence converges. The argument adapts the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz (KL) framework of Attouch, Bolte and Svaiter (Math. Program. 137, 2013) to a setting where the ADMM only decreases its merit function in the xxx-block.

Setting

Fix M:Rn→Rm\mathcal M:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^mM:Rn→Rm linear, h:Rn→Rh:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rh:Rn→R twice continuously differentiable with bounded Hessian, and P:Rm→(−∞,+∞]P:\mathbb R^m\to(-\infty,+\infty]P:Rm→(−∞,+∞] proper (finite somewhere) and closed (lower semicontinuous). For β>0\beta>0β>0 the augmented Lagrangian is

Lβ(x,y,z)=h(x)+P(y)−⟨z,Mx−y⟩+β2∥Mx−y∥2.L_\beta(x,y,z)=h(x)+P(y)-\langle z,\mathcal Mx-y\rangle+\tfrac\beta2\|\mathcal Mx-y\|^2 .Lβ​(x,y,z)=h(x)+P(y)−⟨z,Mx−y⟩+2β​∥Mx−y∥2.

The ADMM produces (xt,yt,zt)t≥0(x^t,y^t,z^t)_{t\ge0}(xt,yt,zt)t≥0​ from arbitrary (x0,z0)(x^0,z^0)(x0,z0) by

yt+1∈Arg min⁡yLβ(xt,y,zt),xt+1∈Arg min⁡xLβ(x,yt+1,zt),zt+1=zt−β(Mxt+1−yt+1).y^{t+1}\in\operatorname*{Arg\,min}_y L_\beta(x^t,y,z^t),\quad x^{t+1}\in\operatorname*{Arg\,min}_x L_\beta(x,y^{t+1},z^t),\quad z^{t+1}=z^t-\beta(\mathcal Mx^{t+1}-y^{t+1}).yt+1∈yArgmin​Lβ​(xt,y,zt),xt+1∈xArgmin​Lβ​(x,yt+1,zt),zt+1=zt−β(Mxt+1−yt+1).

Assumption 1 with T1=0\mathcal T_1=0T1​=0 asks for σ,δ>0\sigma,\delta>0σ,δ>0, γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) and symmetric maps Q1,Q2,Q3\mathcal Q_1,\mathcal Q_2,\mathcal Q_3Q1​,Q2​,Q3​ with MM∗⪰σI\mathcal M\mathcal M^*\succeq\sigma\mathcal IMM∗⪰σI, Q1⪰∇2h(x)⪰Q2\mathcal Q_1\succeq\nabla^2h(x)\succeq\mathcal Q_2Q1​⪰∇2h(x)⪰Q2​ and Q3⪰[∇2h(x)]2\mathcal Q_3\succeq[\nabla^2h(x)]^2Q3​⪰[∇2h(x)]2 for all xxx, Q2+βM∗M⪰δI\mathcal Q_2+\beta\mathcal M^*\mathcal M\succeq\delta\mathcal IQ2​+βM∗M⪰δI, and δI≻2σβγQ3\delta\mathcal I\succ\frac{2}{\sigma\beta\gamma}\mathcal Q_3δI≻σβγ2​Q3​.

The limiting subdifferential ∂f(x)\partial f(x)∂f(x) of fff consists of limits vvv of regular subgradients vtv^tvt at points xt→xx^t\to xxt→x with f(xt)→f(x)f(x^t)\to f(x)f(xt)→f(x). A point xxx is stationary if 0∈∇h(x)+M∗∂P(Mx)0\in\nabla h(x)+\mathcal M^*\partial P(\mathcal Mx)0∈∇h(x)+M∗∂P(Mx).

A set in RN\mathbb R^NRN is semi-algebraic if it is a finite union of sets cut out by finitely many polynomial equations pi=0p_i=0pi​=0 and strict inequalities gj<0g_j<0gj​<0; a function is semi-algebraic if its graph is. A proper fff has the KL property at x^∈dom⁡∂f\hat x\in\operatorname{dom}\partial fx^∈dom∂f if there are η>0\eta>0η>0, a neighbourhood VVV of x^\hat xx^ and a continuous concave φ:[0,η)→R+\varphi:[0,\eta)\to\mathbb R_+φ:[0,η)→R+​ with φ(0)=0\varphi(0)=0φ(0)=0, φ∈C1(0,η)\varphi\in C^1(0,\eta)φ∈C1(0,η), φ′>0\varphi'>0φ′>0, such that φ′(f(x)−f(x^)) dist⁡(0,∂f(x))≥1\varphi'(f(x)-f(\hat x))\,\operatorname{dist}(0,\partial f(x))\ge1φ′(f(x)−f(x^))dist(0,∂f(x))≥1 whenever x∈Vx\in Vx∈V and f(x^)<f(x)<f(x^)+ηf(\hat x)<f(x)<f(\hat x)+\etaf(x^)<f(x)<f(x^)+η. A KL function is proper, closed, and KL at every point of dom⁡∂f\operatorname{dom}\partial fdom∂f.

In the Lean development LβL_\betaLβ​ is augLag h P M β x y z, and also augLagX h P M β as a single function on the triple space Rn×Rm×Rm\mathbb R^n\times\mathbb R^m\times\mathbb R^mRn×Rm×Rm with the Euclidean inner product.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 13)

Under the standing assumptions and Assumption 1 with T1=0\mathcal T_1=0T1​=0, if hhh and PPP are semi-algebraic and the ADMM sequence has a cluster point (x∗,y∗,z∗)(x^*,y^*,z^*)(x∗,y∗,z∗), then

(xt,yt,zt)→(x∗,y∗,z∗),0∈∇h(x∗)+M∗∂P(Mx∗),∑t∥xt+1−xt∥<∞.(x^t,y^t,z^t)\to(x^*,y^*,z^*),\qquad 0\in\nabla h(x^*)+\mathcal M^*\partial P(\mathcal Mx^*),\qquad \sum_{t}\|x^{t+1}-x^t\|<\infty .(xt,yt,zt)→(x∗,y∗,z∗),0∈∇h(x∗)+M∗∂P(Mx∗),t∑​∥xt+1−xt∥<∞.

No constants are fixed: every parameter is quantified exactly as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. (35): some w∈∂Lβ(xt+1,yt+1,zt+1)w\in\partial L_\beta(x^{t+1},y^{t+1},z^{t+1})w∈∂Lβ​(xt+1,yt+1,zt+1) has ∥w∥≤C∥xt+1−xt∥\|w\|\le C\|x^{t+1}-x^t\|∥w∥≤C∥xt+1−xt∥ for t≥1t\ge1t≥1.
  2. (36): Lβ(xt,yt,zt)−Lβ(xt+1,yt+1,zt+1)≥D∥xt+1−xt∥2L_\beta(x^t,y^t,z^t)-L_\beta(x^{t+1},y^{t+1},z^{t+1})\ge D\|x^{t+1}-x^t\|^2Lβ​(xt,yt,zt)−Lβ​(xt+1,yt+1,zt+1)≥D∥xt+1−xt∥2 for t≥1t\ge1t≥1.
  3. (39): Lβ(xt,yt,zt)→Lβ(x∗,y∗,z∗)L_\beta(x^t,y^t,z^t)\to L_\beta(x^*,y^*,z^*)Lβ​(xt,yt,zt)→Lβ​(x∗,y∗,z∗).
  4. Finite termination when LβL_\betaLβ​ reaches its limit value.
  5. (41): the one-step KL estimate.
  6. Remark 4(1): the goal with "LβL_\betaLβ​ is a KL function" in place of semi-algebraicity.
  7. LβL_\betaLβ​ is semi-algebraic when hhh and PPP are.
  8. Proper closed semi-algebraic functions are KL functions, with φ(s)=cs1−θ\varphi(s)=cs^{1-\theta}φ(s)=cs1−θ.

Milestones 6, 7 and 8 together imply the goal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 upgrades subsequential convergence to convergence of the whole iterate sequence, with finite length of the xxx-trajectory, for a nonconvex ADMM without any convexity of hhh or PPP. Semi-algebraicity covers the paper's applications: polynomial losses, the ℓ0\ell_0ℓ0​ constraint, and indicators of polyhedral or algebraic sets. Remark 4(1) isolates the only property actually used, the KL property of LβL_\betaLβ​, so the result extends to any class of functions for which that property is known (for instance, globally subanalytic or o-minimal definable data).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper and, as far as is known, formalized nowhere. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the paper's convergence argument, a Lean definition of the KL property with the correct convention for empty subdifferentials, and a semi-algebraic set predicate over MvPolynomial. Milestone 8 is a published theorem of real algebraic geometry and nonsmooth analysis (Bolte–Daniilidis–Lewis 2007) that the paper quotes without proof; it is part of what a complete development of the goal requires.

Difficulty

The obvious route is to invoke the abstract convergence theorem of Attouch–Bolte–Svaiter for descent methods. It does not apply: its sufficient-decrease hypothesis requires LβL_\betaLβ​ to drop by a multiple of ∥xt+1−xt∥2+∥yt+1−yt∥2+∥zt+1−zt∥2\|x^{t+1}-x^t\|^2+\|y^{t+1}-y^t\|^2+\|z^{t+1}-z^t\|^2∥xt+1−xt∥2+∥yt+1−yt∥2+∥zt+1−zt∥2, while the ADMM only guarantees a drop proportional to ∥xt+1−xt∥2\|x^{t+1}-x^t\|^2∥xt+1−xt∥2 (Remark 4(2)). The relative-error bound (35) is likewise in terms of the xxx-step alone, and relating the yyy- and zzz-blocks back to the xxx-block uses the surjectivity of M\mathcal MM and the specific structure of the multiplier update. The neighbourhood on which the KL inequality holds is a neighbourhood of the full triple, whereas the trajectory is controlled only in xxx.

The semi-algebraic part has a separate difficulty: showing that LβL_\betaLβ​ is semi-algebraic needs closure of semi-algebraic sets under projection (the Tarski–Seidenberg theorem), and the KL property of semi-algebraic functions needs the Łojasiewicz inequality for subanalytic or semi-algebraic functions. Mathlib has neither.

Formalization scope

Spaces are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); M\mathcal MM is a continuous linear map and M∗\mathcal M^*M∗ its adjoint. PPP and LβL_\betaLβ​ take values in EReal, never passed through toReal except where the value is provably finite. ⪰\succeq⪰ is Mathlib's Loewner order on self-maps; the Hessian is fderiv ℝ (gradient h). The ADMM is the proximal-ADMM relation with ϕ=0\phi=0ϕ=0; argmin steps are "value at most the value anywhere", with no uniqueness; y0y^0y0 is unconstrained. The triple space is the nested L2L^2L2 product, so its inner product is the sum of the block inner products.

The KL inequality is stated for every v∈∂f(x)v\in\partial f(x)v∈∂f(x), which encodes dist⁡(0,∅)=+∞\operatorname{dist}(0,\emptyset)=+\inftydist(0,∅)=+∞. Writing it with Metric.infDist 0 (∂f x) would give dist⁡(0,∅)=0\operatorname{dist}(0,\emptyset)=0dist(0,∅)=0 and make the KL property fail at every point with empty subdifferential, so that "semi-algebraic implies KL" becomes false and the goal becomes a statement about a different notion. The KL property is required only at points of dom⁡∂f\operatorname{dom}\partial fdom∂f, only on a neighbourhood and only for values in (f(x^),f(x^)+η)(f(\hat x),f(\hat x)+\eta)(f(x^),f(x^)+η); φ\varphiφ is differentiable only on the open interval. Semi-algebraicity of an extended-valued function is that of its graph over its real values. η\etaη is a positive real, which is equivalent to the paper's η∈(0,∞]\eta\in(0,\infty]η∈(0,∞].

The hypotheses ϕ=0\phi=0ϕ=0 and T1=0\mathcal T_1=0T1​=0 are part of the theorem, not a simplification: the analogous statement for the proximal ADMM is open (Remark 4(3)). The cluster point is assumed, not derived.

Needed infrastructure: calculus of the limiting subdifferential (a smooth-plus-separable sum rule), the Tarski–Seidenberg theorem, and the Łojasiewicz/KL inequality for semi-algebraic functions. The last two are reusable far beyond this mission; contributions toward them, and toward the analytic core (milestones 1–6), are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. Li, T. K. Pong, Global convergence of splitting methods for nonconvex composite optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 25(4), 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1407.0753 (v6 is the cited version)
  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, P. Redont, A. Soubeyran, Proximal alternating minimization and projection methods for nonconvex problems: an approach based on the Kurdyka–Łojasiewicz inequality, Math. Oper. Res. 35(2), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1100.0449
  • H. Attouch, J. Bolte, B. F. Svaiter, Convergence of descent methods for semi-algebraic and tame problems, Math. Program. 137, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0484-9
  • J. Bolte, A. Daniilidis, A. Lewis, The Łojasiewicz inequality for nonsmooth subanalytic functions with applications to subgradient dynamical systems, SIAM J. Optim. 17(4), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644641
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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