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Operations Research

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The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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Algorithmic Game TheoryAnalysisMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility 2: Under Local α-Power Envelopes, ε-IC Mechanisms Gain at Most Õ(ε^(α/(2α−1))) RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical mechanism design assumes that agents optimize exactly: a buyer facing a menu picks the option that maximizes his utility, however small the advantage over the next-best option. In many settings this is implausible. Agents may face cognitive or computational costs, or the designer may only be able to certify incentives approximately, as in algorithmic mechanism design where exact incentive compatibility is replaced by ε-incentive compatibility: no deviation gains more than ε\varepsilonε.

Balseiro, Besbes and Castro (arXiv:2103.03403v2; Operations Research, 2024) ask how much a revenue-maximizing seller can gain when the buyer is only an ε\varepsilonε-optimizer, in the most basic setting: one seller, one item, one buyer. Without the relaxation the answer is classical: by Myerson (1981) and Riley–Zeckhauser (1983) the optimal mechanism is a posted price. The rounding argument usually attributed to Nisan shows that the gain from the relaxation is O(ε1/2)O(\varepsilon^{1/2})O(ε1/2) for every distribution. This mission formalizes the paper's first main theorem, which shows that for regular instances the gain is much smaller and is determined by the local curvature of the revenue curve at the optimal price.

Setting

The buyer's value vvv has a density fff on S=[0,vˉ]S=[0,\bar v]S=[0,vˉ], with vˉ>0\bar v>0vˉ>0, f≥0f\ge 0f≥0, f=0f=0f=0 off SSS and ∫0vˉf=1\int_0^{\bar v}f=1∫0vˉ​f=1. Assumption 1 requires in addition that fff has bounded variation on SSS. Write F(v)=∫0vfF(v)=\int_0^v fF(v)=∫0v​f, Fˉ=1−F\bar F=1-FFˉ=1−F, the revenue function R(v)=vFˉ(v)R(v)=v\bar F(v)R(v)=vFˉ(v) (the revenue of a posted price vvv), and R˙(v)=Fˉ(v)−vf(v)\dot R(v)=\bar F(v)-vf(v)R˙(v)=Fˉ(v)−vf(v).

A mechanism m=(x,t)m=(x,t)m=(x,t) assigns to every report v∈Sv\in Sv∈S an allocation probability x(v)∈[0,1]x(v)\in[0,1]x(v)∈[0,1] and a payment t(v)∈Rt(v)\in\mathbb Rt(v)∈R. It is individually rational (IR) if vx(v)−t(v)≥0v x(v)-t(v)\ge 0vx(v)−t(v)≥0 for all v∈Sv\in Sv∈S, and ε-incentive compatible (ICε_\varepsilonε​) if

v x(v)−t(v) ≥ v x(v′)−t(v′)−ε∀v,v′∈S.v\,x(v)-t(v)\ \ge\ v\,x(v')-t(v')-\varepsilon\qquad\forall v,v'\in S .vx(v)−t(v) ≥ vx(v′)−t(v′)−ε∀v,v′∈S.

M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε) is the set of such mechanisms, Π(m)=∫0vˉt(v)f(v) dv\Pi(m)=\int_0^{\bar v}t(v)f(v)\,dvΠ(m)=∫0vˉ​t(v)f(v)dv the expected revenue, and Π⋆(M(ε))=sup⁡m∈M(ε)Π(m)\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(\varepsilon))=\sup_{m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon)}\Pi(m)Π⋆(M(ε))=supm∈M(ε)​Π(m).

Definition 1 (local α-power envelopes). RRR has a unique maximizer p⋆∈(0,vˉ)p^\star\in(0,\bar v)p⋆∈(0,vˉ) on SSS, and there are α>1\alpha>1α>1, κL,κU>0\kappa_L,\kappa_U>0κL​,κU​>0 and a neighborhood Nℓ=(p⋆−ℓ,p⋆+ℓ)⊂(0,vˉ)\mathcal N_\ell=(p^\star-\ell,p^\star+\ell)\subset(0,\bar v)Nℓ​=(p⋆−ℓ,p⋆+ℓ)⊂(0,vˉ) with

κLα∣v−p⋆∣α≤(p⋆−v)R˙(v)≤κUα∣v−p⋆∣α∀v∈Nℓ.\kappa_L\alpha|v-p^\star|^\alpha\le(p^\star-v)\dot R(v)\le\kappa_U\alpha|v-p^\star|^\alpha\qquad\forall v\in\mathcal N_\ell .κL​α∣v−p⋆∣α≤(p⋆−v)R˙(v)≤κU​α∣v−p⋆∣α∀v∈Nℓ​.

For the uniform distribution on [0,1][0,1][0,1], p⋆=1/2p^\star=1/2p⋆=1/2 and α=2\alpha=2α=2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 16)

Under Assumption 1, local α\alphaα-power envelopes at p⋆p^\starp⋆ and inf⁡p∈S∖Nℓ∣R˙(p)∣>0\inf_{p\in S\setminus\mathcal N_\ell}|\dot R(p)|>0infp∈S∖Nℓ​​∣R˙(p)∣>0,

Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=O~(εα/(2α−1)),\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(\varepsilon))-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))=\tilde O\big(\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)}\big),Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=O~(εα/(2α−1)),

where O~\tilde OO~ allows a factor log⁡(1/ε)\log(1/\varepsilon)log(1/ε) and the constants depend on the instance but not on ε\varepsilonε.

Milestones

The paper's argument passes through the following stated results, in attack order:

  1. M(ε)⊆Mpath(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)\subseteq\mathcal M_{\text{path}}(\varepsilon)M(ε)⊆Mpath​(ε) for the relaxation that keeps IR on [0,μ][0,\mu][0,μ] and IC only along a path v↦v⋆(v)v\mapsto v^\star(v)v↦v⋆(v) (p. 17);
  2. Lemma 1 (weak duality): Π(m)≤Φ1(λ)+Φ2(λ)\Pi(m)\le\Phi_1(\lambda)+\Phi_2(\lambda)Π(m)≤Φ1​(λ)+Φ2​(λ) for every m∈Mpath(ε)m\in\mathcal M_{\text{path}}(\varepsilon)m∈Mpath​(ε) and every dual-feasible λ\lambdaλ;
  3. Lemma 2: an explicit dual solution λ⋆(v)=ddv∑j≤kF(wj(v))\lambda^\star(v)=\frac{d}{dv}\sum_{j\le k}F(w^j(v))λ⋆(v)=dvd​∑j≤k​F(wj(v)) on the kkk-th step, where www inverts v⋆v^\starv⋆;
  4. Lemma 3: Φ1(λ⋆)≤CεK\Phi_1(\lambda^\star)\le C\varepsilon KΦ1​(λ⋆)≤CεK, KKK the number of steps;
  5. Lemma 4: ∫xvˉΔ≤R(x)+2(w(x)−x)\int_x^{\bar v}\Delta\le R(x)+2(w(x)-x)∫xvˉ​Δ≤R(x)+2(w(x)−x) when the dual virtual value Δ\DeltaΔ is nonnegative on [x,ν0][x,\nu_0][x,ν0​];
  6. Proposition 2: for the piecewise-linear path of eq. (9), K=O(log⁡(1/ε)/εβ)K=O(\log(1/\varepsilon)/\varepsilon^\beta)K=O(log(1/ε)/εβ);
  7. the sandwich vf−Fˉ−CLεβ≤Δ≤vf−Fˉ+CUεβvf-\bar F-C_L\varepsilon^\beta\le\Delta\le vf-\bar F+C_U\varepsilon^\betavf−Fˉ−CL​εβ≤Δ≤vf−Fˉ+CU​εβ a.e. on [p⋆,ν0][p^\star,\nu_0][p⋆,ν0​] (p. 48);
  8. Δ≤−R˙+Cεβ\Delta\le-\dot R+C\varepsilon^\betaΔ≤−R˙+Cεβ a.e. on [0,p⋆][0,p^\star][0,p⋆] (pp. 51–52).

Significance

Theorem 1 is an instance-dependent impossibility result: no ε\varepsilonε-IC mechanism can extract more than O~(εα/(2α−1))\tilde O(\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)})O~(εα/(2α−1)) beyond the optimal posted price. Since α/(2α−1)>1/2\alpha/(2\alpha-1)>1/2α/(2α−1)>1/2 for every α>1\alpha>1α>1, it strictly improves the universal O(ε1/2)O(\varepsilon^{1/2})O(ε1/2) bound for these distributions; for α=2\alpha=2α=2 (a revenue curve with nonzero second derivative at p⋆p^\starp⋆) the rate is ε2/3\varepsilon^{2/3}ε2/3. Together with Theorem 3 of the same paper, a matching Ω(εα/(2α−1))\Omega(\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)})Ω(εα/(2α−1)) lower bound by a randomized mechanism, it identifies the exact rate up to the logarithm. The authors conjecture that the logarithmic factor can be removed.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it or of any of its lemmas exists. A formalization would check an appendix argument of several pages of explicit estimates, and would produce reusable components: a weak duality theorem for a mechanism-design program over a path of incentive constraints, an explicit solution of the functional equation λ(v)=f(v)+w˙(v)λ(w(v))\lambda(v)=f(v)+\dot w(v)\lambda(w(v))λ(v)=f(v)+w˙(v)λ(w(v)) by iterates of www, and estimates of iterated piecewise-linear maps.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to bound the gain by perturbing the optimal posted price, which yields only the ε1/2\varepsilon^{1/2}ε1/2 rate of the rounding argument. Getting the exponent α/(2α−1)\alpha/(2\alpha-1)α/(2α−1) requires an upper bound that is tight to first order, i.e. a nearly optimal dual certificate for an infinite-dimensional program. The dual depends on the choice of path: the paper's analysis shows that a parallel shift w(x)=x+δw(x)=x+\deltaw(x)=x+δ cannot beat ε1/2\varepsilon^{1/2}ε1/2, so the path must approach the diagonal near p⋆p^\starp⋆ while keeping the number of steps KKK controlled. The estimates for Δ\DeltaΔ in milestones 7–8 require tracking λ⋆(w(v))\lambda^\star(w(v))λ⋆(w(v)) through K=O(log⁡(1/ε)/εβ)K=O(\log(1/\varepsilon)/\varepsilon^\beta)K=O(log(1/ε)/εβ) iterations of www, with a bounded-variation (possibly discontinuous) density. Measure-theoretic details absent from the paper also have to be supplied: changes of variables along a Lipschitz path, almost-everywhere differentiability of iterated compositions, and integrability of the dual variable.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in namespace ApproxIC.UpperBound. Every function of the value is a total function ℝ → ℝ and every condition quantifies over SSS only. Committed conventions:

  • FFF is the interval integral of fff; R˙\dot RR˙ is the explicit expression Fˉ(v)−vf(v)\bar F(v)-vf(v)Fˉ(v)−vf(v), not a derivative of RRR.
  • Mechanisms are required to be measurable (disclosed: Ev[t(v)]\mathbb E_v[t(v)]Ev​[t(v)] presumes it). Π⋆\Pi^\starΠ⋆ is an sSup of the revenue image, which is nonempty and bounded above by vˉ\bar vvˉ.
  • The goal is stated as ∀m∈M(ε), Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤Cεα/(2α−1)log⁡(1/ε)\forall m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon),\ \Pi(m)-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))\le C\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)}\log(1/\varepsilon)∀m∈M(ε), Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤Cεα/(2α−1)log(1/ε) for all ε∈(0,ε0]\varepsilon\in(0,\varepsilon_0]ε∈(0,ε0​], with C,ε0C,\varepsilon_0C,ε0​ chosen after the instance and before ε\varepsilonε. The infimum hypothesis on ∣R˙∣|\dot R|∣R˙∣ ranges over S∖NℓS\setminus\mathcal N_\ellS∖Nℓ​.
  • Definition 1's constants are parameters of a predicate LocalPowerEnvelope.
  • Paths carry an added, disclosed assumption: www is Lipschitz on [0,ν0][0,\nu_0][0,ν0​] (eq. (9)'s www is). w˙\dot ww˙ is deriv w.
  • The thresholds are N\mathbb NN-indexed with index 000 equal to vˉ\bar vvˉ, so the paper's νk\nu_kνk​ is index k+1k+1k+1.
  • Lemma 1's printed sign (v−w(v))(v-w(v))(v−w(v)) in Φ2\Phi_2Φ2​ is read as (w(v)−v)(w(v)-v)(w(v)−v), as in its proof and in Lemma 4. Lemma 4's printed "Φ2(λ)=∫xvˉΔ\Phi_2(\lambda)=\int_x^{\bar v}\DeltaΦ2​(λ)=∫xvˉ​Δ" is read as ∫xvˉΔ+=∫xvˉΔ\int_x^{\bar v}\Delta^+=\int_x^{\bar v}\Delta∫xvˉ​Δ+=∫xvˉ​Δ. Lemmas 3 and 4 are stated for Lemma 2's explicit λ⋆\lambda^\starλ⋆.

The goal imports only the model file; paths, the dual and eq. (9) appear only in the milestones. A formalization in which O~\tilde OO~'s constants are chosen after ε\varepsilonε, Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) is replaced by a constant, or the revenue integral is allowed to vanish on non-measurable mechanisms is not this theorem and is ruled out by the statement.

A complete development needs interval integrals and the fundamental theorem of calculus for absolutely continuous functions, change of variables along monotone Lipschitz maps, BoundedVariationOn, real powers and logarithms, and iterates Nat.iterate. The duality lemma and the functional-equation solution are reusable for other single-agent screening problems with relaxed incentive constraints. Contributions to any milestone, and alternative proofs of the goal that bypass the path construction, are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. R. Balseiro, O. Besbes, F. Castro, Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility, arXiv:2103.03403v2, 2022; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03403
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • J. Riley, R. Zeckhauser, Optimal Selling Strategies: When to Haggle, When to Hold Firm, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885622
12 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies: Does Mining Technology Undermine Decentralization? 1: The Mining Game Has a Unique Equilibrium Whose Number of Active Miners Is Fixed by an Explicit Cost ConditionResearch Paper

Motivation

Proof-of-work blockchains such as Bitcoin keep their ledger secure by a contest: miners spend computing power ("hash rate") to solve a cryptographic puzzle, and the miner who solves it first earns the block reward. The probability of winning is proportional to a miner's share of the total hash rate, so mining is a rent-seeking contest in the sense of Tullock (1967), with heterogeneous costs. Whether such a contest stays decentralized, that is, whether many miners remain active or a few efficient ones take over, is a question about the structure of its equilibrium.

Capponi, Ólafsson and Alsabah (arXiv:2106.09783v1, 2021) model a two-stage game: miners first invest in hardware, then compete in hash rate. This mission formalizes the second stage, the mining game, for a fixed cost vector. Its results (Propositions 4.1–4.4) are the foundation of the paper's comparative statics (Propositions 4.6, 4.8) and of its investment stage (Proposition 5.1), which are posed in the later missions of this series.

Setting

There are N≥2N\ge 2N≥2 miners, indexed i=1,…,Ni=1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N. Miner iii has a cost-per-hash ci>0c_i>0ci​>0, and the miners are sorted so that c1≤c2≤⋯≤cNc_1\le c_2\le\dots\le c_Nc1​≤c2​≤⋯≤cN​. All miners compete for a total reward R>0R>0R>0 and share a capacity parameter γ≥0\gamma\ge 0γ≥0: a larger γ\gammaγ means a tighter hashing capacity.

Each miner chooses a hash rate hi≥0h_i\ge 0hi​≥0. The aggregate hash rate is H=∑j=1NhjH=\sum_{j=1}^N h_jH=∑j=1N​hj​, and miner iii's objective is

πi(h)={hiHR−cihi−γ2hi2,H>0,0,H=0.\pi_i(h)=\begin{cases}\dfrac{h_i}{H}R-c_ih_i-\dfrac{\gamma}{2}h_i^2, & H>0,\\[4pt] 0, & H=0.\end{cases}πi​(h)=⎩⎨⎧​Hhi​​R−ci​hi​−2γ​hi2​,0,​H>0,H=0.​

An equilibrium hash rate profile h∗h^*h∗ is a nonnegative profile in which no miner can increase its objective by changing its own hash rate to any other nonnegative value. A miner is active if hi∗>0h^*_i>0hi∗​>0; nnn denotes the number of active miners. The cumulative cost of the first kkk miners is c(k)=c1+⋯+ckc^{(k)}=c_1+\dots+c_kc(k)=c1​+⋯+ck​, and the marginal cost of miner iii at the equilibrium is MCi∗=ci+γhi∗MC^*_i=c_i+\gamma h^*_iMCi∗​=ci​+γhi∗​.

In Lean these objects are Params N (fields c, R, γ), Params.Standing, aggH, payoff, IsMiningEq, activeCount, cumCost, aggForm, partCond, margCost and profit, in the namespace PoWMining.Equilibrium.

Formalization targets

Goal: the number of active miners (Proposition 4.4)

An equilibrium exists, and in every equilibrium the number of active miners is the largest 2≤n≤N2\le n\le N2≤n≤N with

cn<c(n)+Rγ/cnn−1.c_n<\frac{c^{(n)}+R\gamma/c_n}{n-1}.cn​<n−1c(n)+Rγ/cn​​.

This number is weakly increasing in RRR and in γ\gammaγ (with the costs held fixed). The goal identifies the degree of decentralization of the mining stage purely from the model parameters.

Milestones, in the order of the paper's proof

  1. Every equilibrium has at least two active miners (p. 38).
  2. If miner k+1k+1k+1 is active in an equilibrium, so is miner kkk: the active miners are the nnn cheapest (p. 38).
  3. The first-order condition of an active miner (4.2):
RH∗(1−hi∗H∗)=ci+γhi∗.\frac{R}{H^*}\Bigl(1-\frac{h^*_i}{H^*}\Bigr)=c_i+\gamma h^*_i.H∗R​(1−H∗hi∗​​)=ci​+γhi∗​.
  1. Summing (4.2) over the active miners (B.1): (n−1)R−c(n)H∗−γ(H∗)2=0(n-1)R-c^{(n)}H^*-\gamma (H^*)^2=0(n−1)R−c(n)H∗−γ(H∗)2=0.
  2. Proposition 4.1: the equilibrium exists and is unique, hi∗=H∗(R−ciH∗)/(R+γ(H∗)2)h^*_i=H^*(R-c_iH^*)/(R+\gamma (H^*)^2)hi∗​=H∗(R−ci​H∗)/(R+γ(H∗)2) for i≤ni\le ni≤n and 000 otherwise, and H∗H^*H∗ is the positive root
H∗=(c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ−c(n)2γ (γ>0),H∗=(n−1)Rc(n) (γ=0).(4.1)H^*=\frac{\sqrt{(c^{(n)})^2+4(n-1)R\gamma}-c^{(n)}}{2\gamma}\ (\gamma>0),\qquad H^*=\frac{(n-1)R}{c^{(n)}}\ (\gamma=0).\tag{4.1}H∗=2γ(c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ​−c(n)​ (γ>0),H∗=c(n)(n−1)R​ (γ=0).(4.1)
  1. Proposition 4.2: MCi∗MC^*_iMCi∗​ increases in iii, MCi∗<R/H∗  ⟺  ci<R/H∗  ⟺  i≤nMC^*_i<R/H^*\iff c_i<R/H^*\iff i\le nMCi∗​<R/H∗⟺ci​<R/H∗⟺i≤n, and ci/MCi∗c_i/MC^*_ici​/MCi∗​ increases while γhi∗/MCi∗\gamma h^*_i/MC^*_iγhi∗​/MCi∗​ decreases.

A companion statement, Proposition 4.3 (equilibrium profits are decreasing in iii, positive exactly for the active miners, and profit-per-hash of the active miners is decreasing), is posed as a theorem of the mission but is not on the goal's proof path.

Significance

The result. Proposition 4.4 says that participation in proof-of-work mining is decided by a single explicit inequality comparing the marginal miner's cost to the average cost of the cheaper miners, corrected by the capacity term Rγ/cnR\gamma/c_nRγ/cn​. With γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 the condition reads cn<nn−1⋅c(n)nc_n<\frac{n}{n-1}\cdot\frac{c^{(n)}}{n}cn​<n−1n​⋅nc(n)​: the marginal miner's cost may exceed the average active cost only slightly, so cost heterogeneity drives inefficient miners out. The capacity constraint is what keeps them in. The paper's discussion of centralization, its comparative statics of hash rate shares (Propositions 4.6 and 4.8) and its analysis of hardware investment and entry (Proposition 5.1) all take the equilibrium of Proposition 4.1 and the active count of Proposition 4.4 as given.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper (Appendix B, pp. 38–39); none of them is machine-checked. A formal development produces a complete, checked equilibrium analysis of a heterogeneous-cost Tullock contest with quadratic capacity costs: existence and uniqueness of a pure equilibrium, the explicit hash rates, and the participation threshold. The platform currently has no contest, rent-seeking or mining game.

Difficulty

The closed forms are straightforward to verify once the active set is known; the difficulty is the active set itself. The objective is concave in the own hash rate only when the other miners' aggregate is positive, and it jumps at H=0H=0H=0, so the standard concave-game existence theorem does not apply directly on the whole strategy space, and the equilibrium has to be located among profiles with at least two active miners. Uniqueness requires excluding every equilibrium with a different active set, not only the one the formulas produce. For Proposition 4.4, the obvious route, substituting the closed form of H∗H^*H∗ into "cn<R/H∗c_n<R/H^*cn​<R/H∗", produces a condition in terms of the equilibrium's own nnn; showing that the set of kkk satisfying the printed inequality is an initial segment {2,…,n}\{2,\dots,n\}{2,…,n}, so that "largest" picks out exactly the equilibrium count, is the step that needs care, and the monotonicity in RRR and γ\gammaγ is a comparison of two different equilibria.

Formalization scope

  • Miners are Fin N, with Lean index iii standing for the paper's miner i+1i+1i+1. The standing assumptions Params.Standing are N≥2N\ge 2N≥2, R>0R>0R>0, γ≥0\gamma\ge 0γ≥0, ci>0c_i>0ci​>0 and Monotone c (the paper's sorting, p. 12).
  • The objective omits the fixed entry cost KKK of (3.4): with the investment profile fixed it does not depend on the miner's own hash rate. The case H=0H=0H=0 is an explicit branch, not Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0.
  • The equilibrium (Definition 3.2(i)) is the best-response property "for every x≥0x\ge 0x≥0, deviating to xxx does not raise the objective", which is equivalent to the paper's "=sup⁡hi≥0=\sup_{h_i\ge 0}=suphi​≥0​" and avoids junk values of sSup.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" is weak (Monotone/Antitone), as in the paper's footnote 12. "Largest nnn" is IsGreatest, not sSup on N\mathbb NN. Both branches of (4.1) are kept as printed; γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 is allowed throughout.
  • Ruling out trivializations: the equilibrium is never defined by its closed form and the active count is never defined by the participation condition; the goal includes existence, so its statements about every equilibrium are not vacuous; NNN and nnn are general.
  • Needed infrastructure: elementary real analysis (concavity and one-variable first-order conditions), finite sums over Fin N, quadratic roots. Lemmas about the objective's concavity and best responses, and the initial-segment property of the participation condition, are reusable in the later missions of this series. Contributions of any milestone, or of further intermediate lemmas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Capponi, S. Ólafsson, H. Alsabah, Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies: Does Mining Technology Undermine Decentralization?, arXiv preprint, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.09783v1
  • G. Tullock, The Welfare Costs of Tariffs, Monopolies, and Theft, Western Economic Journal 5(3), 1967. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.1967.tb01923.x
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies: Does Mining Technology Undermine Decentralization? 2: Signs of the Sensitivities of Equilibrium Hash Rates and Hash Rate Shares to Mining CostsResearch Paper

Motivation

In a proof-of-work cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, miners spend computing power (hash rate) to win the right to add the next block and collect a reward. Whether this competition stays decentralized depends on how individual hash rates react to differences in mining costs: if a cost advantage translates into an ever larger share of the total hash rate, mining concentrates in a few hands. Capponi, Ólafsson and Alsabah (arXiv:2106.09783v1, 2021) model mining as a game among miners with heterogeneous costs and limited capacity, and derive its equilibrium in closed form. Their Section 4.3 then asks how equilibrium hash rates and hash rate shares respond to a change in one miner's cost. This mission formalizes the answer, Proposition 4.6 of that preprint.

Setting

Fix n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 active miners. Miner iii has cost-per-hash ci>0c_i > 0ci​>0, and every miner bears the capacity cost (γ/2)hi2(\gamma/2)h_i^2(γ/2)hi2​ with capacity parameter γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0 (a larger γ\gammaγ means smaller capacity). The miners compete for a reward R>0R > 0R>0, which miner iii wins in proportion to its hash rate hih_ihi​ over the aggregate hash rate H=∑jhjH = \sum_j h_jH=∑j​hj​. Write c(n)=c1+⋯+cnc^{(n)} = c_1 + \dots + c_nc(n)=c1​+⋯+cn​ for the cumulative cost.

When exactly these nnn miners are active, the paper's equilibrium (Proposition 4.1, posed in mission 1 of this series) is explicit. The aggregate hash rate H∗=gH^* = gH∗=g is the positive root of γH2+c(n)H−(n−1)R=0\gamma H^2 + c^{(n)}H - (n-1)R = 0γH2+c(n)H−(n−1)R=0:

g=(c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ−c(n)2γ (γ>0),g=(n−1)Rc(n) (γ=0),g = \frac{\sqrt{(c^{(n)})^2 + 4(n-1)R\gamma} - c^{(n)}}{2\gamma}\ (\gamma > 0),\qquad g = \frac{(n-1)R}{c^{(n)}}\ (\gamma = 0),g=2γ(c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ​−c(n)​ (γ>0),g=c(n)(n−1)R​ (γ=0),

and the individual equilibrium hash rates are hi∗=fi(g)h^*_i = f_i(g)hi∗​=fi​(g) with

fi(G)=G R−ciGR+γG2.(B.3)f_i(G) = G\,\frac{R - c_i G}{R + \gamma G^2}. \tag{B.3}fi​(G)=GR+γG2R−ci​G​.(B.3)

All nnn miners being active means R−ckg>0R - c_k g > 0R−ck​g>0 for every kkk. The hash rate share of miner iii is hi∗/H∗=fi(g)/gh^*_i/H^* = f_i(g)/ghi∗​/H∗=fi​(g)/g.

A change in cic_ici​ moves hi∗h^*_ihi∗​ in two ways. The direct sensitivity Δi,1=∂fi/∂ci\Delta_{i,1} = \partial f_i/\partial c_iΔi,1​=∂fi​/∂ci​ holds the aggregate fixed. The indirect sensitivity Δi,2=(∂fi/∂g)(∂g/∂ci)\Delta_{i,2} = (\partial f_i/\partial g)(\partial g/\partial c_i)Δi,2​=(∂fi​/∂g)(∂g/∂ci​) acts through the change of the aggregate. For shares, the paper's decomposition on p. 42 gives Δ~i,1=1g ∂fi/∂ci\widetilde\Delta_{i,1} = \frac1g\,\partial f_i/\partial c_iΔi,1​=g1​∂fi​/∂ci​ and Δ~i,2=1g ∂g∂ci(∂fi∂g−fig)\widetilde\Delta_{i,2} = \frac1g\,\frac{\partial g}{\partial c_i}\big(\frac{\partial f_i}{\partial g} - \frac{f_i}{g}\big)Δi,2​=g1​∂ci​∂g​(∂g∂fi​​−gfi​​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.6 (p. 17)

For active miners i≠ji \ne ji=j, hi∗h^*_ihi∗​ and hi∗/H∗h^*_i/H^*hi∗​/H∗ are differentiable in cic_ici​ and cjc_jcj​, and

∂hi∗∂ci=Δi,1+Δi,2<0,∂hi∗∂cj=Δi,2,Δi,1<0,Δi,2>0  ⟺  hi∗H∗<12,\frac{\partial h^*_i}{\partial c_i} = \Delta_{i,1} + \Delta_{i,2} < 0,\qquad \frac{\partial h^*_i}{\partial c_j} = \Delta_{i,2},\qquad \Delta_{i,1} < 0,\qquad \Delta_{i,2} > 0 \iff \frac{h^*_i}{H^*} < \frac12,∂ci​∂hi∗​​=Δi,1​+Δi,2​<0,∂cj​∂hi∗​​=Δi,2​,Δi,1​<0,Δi,2​>0⟺H∗hi∗​​<21​, ∂∂cihi∗H∗=Δ~i,1+Δ~i,2<0,∂∂cjhi∗H∗=Δ~i,2>0,Δ~i,1<0.\frac{\partial}{\partial c_i}\frac{h^*_i}{H^*} = \widetilde\Delta_{i,1} + \widetilde\Delta_{i,2} < 0,\qquad \frac{\partial}{\partial c_j}\frac{h^*_i}{H^*} = \widetilde\Delta_{i,2} > 0,\qquad \widetilde\Delta_{i,1} < 0.∂ci​∂​H∗hi∗​​=Δi,1​+Δi,2​<0,∂cj​∂​H∗hi∗​​=Δi,2​>0,Δi,1​<0.

Milestones (Appendix B, pp. 39–42)

  1. (B.2), first line: ∂H∗/∂ci=−H∗/(c(n)+2γH∗)<0\partial H^*/\partial c_i = -H^*/(c^{(n)} + 2\gamma H^*) < 0∂H∗/∂ci​=−H∗/(c(n)+2γH∗)<0.
  2. (B.5): R(ci+γg)/(R+γg2)=ci+γfiR(c_i + \gamma g)/(R + \gamma g^2) = c_i + \gamma f_iR(ci​+γg)/(R+γg2)=ci​+γfi​.
  3. The partial derivatives ∂fi/∂ci=−g2/(R+γg2)<0\partial f_i/\partial c_i = -g^2/(R+\gamma g^2) < 0∂fi​/∂ci​=−g2/(R+γg2)<0 and ∂fi/∂g=gR+γg2(Rg−2(ci+γfi))\partial f_i/\partial g = \frac{g}{R+\gamma g^2}\big(\frac Rg - 2(c_i + \gamma f_i)\big)∂fi​/∂g=R+γg2g​(gR​−2(ci​+γfi​)).
  4. (B.4), first two lines: closed forms of ∂hi∗/∂ci\partial h^*_i/\partial c_i∂hi∗​/∂ci​ and ∂hi∗/∂cj\partial h^*_i/\partial c_j∂hi∗​/∂cj​.
  5. The sign criterion: ci+γfi=Rg(1−fi/g)c_i + \gamma f_i = \frac Rg(1 - f_i/g)ci​+γfi​=gR​(1−fi​/g), and Δi,2>0  ⟺  ci+γfi>R2g  ⟺  fi/g<12\Delta_{i,2} > 0 \iff c_i + \gamma f_i > \frac{R}{2g} \iff f_i/g < \frac12Δi,2​>0⟺ci​+γfi​>2gR​⟺fi​/g<21​.
  6. (B.6), first two lines: closed forms and signs of the share derivatives in cic_ici​ and cjc_jcj​.

Significance

The proposition separates the effect of a cost change into a direct part, always negative, and an indirect part through the aggregate, whose sign is set by the hash rate share alone. A miner with less than half the total hash rate partly offsets a cost increase, because rivals' responses lower the aggregate; a dominant miner amplifies it. The same indirect term is exactly the response of hi∗h^*_ihi∗​ to a competitor's cost. For shares the answer is unconditional: a miner's share falls with its own cost and rises with a rival's. These signs (Table 1 of the paper) are what the paper's later discussion of cost advantages and concentration rests on.

The result is proved in the paper by direct calculation. It has not been machine-checked anywhere known to this series, and no comparative statics of a contest or mining game exists on the platform. Formalizing it checks the differentiation of the closed forms, including the case γ=0\gamma = 0γ=0, and fixes the definition of Δ~i,1,Δ~i,2\widetilde\Delta_{i,1}, \widetilde\Delta_{i,2}Δi,1​,Δi,2​, which the paper uses without defining.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary calculus, but the steps do not close by naive differentiation. The derivative of hi∗h^*_ihi∗​ in cic_ici​, computed from the explicit formula, is a rational function of cic_ici​, ggg and the square root in ggg. Its sign is not visible until the square root is eliminated through (c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ=c(n)+2γg\sqrt{(c^{(n)})^2 + 4(n-1)R\gamma} = c^{(n)} + 2\gamma g(c(n))2+4(n−1)Rγ​=c(n)+2γg and the first-order condition of the miner is used to rewrite ci+γfic_i + \gamma f_ici​+γfi​. The equivalence (4.5) depends on the activity condition R−ckg>0R - c_k g > 0R−ck​g>0; without it fif_ifi​ can be negative and the sign claims fail. The case γ=0\gamma = 0γ=0 uses the second branch of ggg, which has no square root, so the paper's middle expression in (B.2) does not apply there.

Formalization scope

Miners are indexed by Fin n, 0-based. Costs are a vector c : Fin n → ℝ. The objects cumCost, gH (both branches of (4.1)), fH (with the aggregate as a free argument G), hstar, share and the four sensitivities are defined in PoWMining.CostStatics.Setting. The standing assumptions n≥2n \ge 2n≥2, R>0R > 0R>0, γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, ck>0c_k > 0ck​>0 and R−ckg>0R - c_k g > 0R−ck​g>0 for all kkk are bundled in Standing. The last of these is the paper's "for active miners", read at a state where small changes do not alter the set of active miners (pp. 15–16). Costs need not be sorted.

Partial derivatives are one-variable derivatives along Function.update c i, and every derivative claim is a HasDerivAt statement. The sensitivities are defined by deriv, never by their closed forms. A definition Δi,1:=−g2/(R+γg2)\Delta_{i,1} := -g^2/(R+\gamma g^2)Δi,1​:=−g2/(R+γg2) would make "Δi,1<0\Delta_{i,1} < 0Δi,1​<0" a positivity check and turn the goal into milestone 4; this is ruled out. Sign claims about a deriv-defined quantity are always paired with the corresponding HasDerivAt claim, so a non-differentiable junk value of 000 cannot satisfy them. γ=0\gamma = 0γ=0 is allowed throughout.

The sensitivities are derivatives of the closed forms (B.3) of the nnn active miners, as in the paper's proof. That these closed forms are the equilibrium of the game is Proposition 4.1, and the first-order condition behind milestone 5 is Proposition 4.2; both are posed in mission 1 of this series and are not restated here. Printed slip: the middle term of (B.5) has a sign error (ci−γgR−cigR+γg2c_i - \gamma g\frac{R-c_ig}{R+\gamma g^2}ci​−γgR+γg2R−ci​g​ for ci+γgR−cigR+γg2c_i + \gamma g\frac{R-c_ig}{R+\gamma g^2}ci​+γgR+γg2R−ci​g​); only the outer equality, which the proof uses, is stated.

Proofs need only real arithmetic, Real.sqrt and one-variable derivative rules. Contributions of any milestone are welcome; a lemma computing the derivative of gH along a single cost coordinate is reused by several of them and by the companion mission on capacity and reward.

Selected references

  • A. Capponi, S. Ólafsson, H. Alsabah, Proof-of-Work Cryptocurrencies: Does Mining Technology Undermine Decentralization?, arXiv preprint, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.09783v1 (Proposition 4.6, p. 17; proof pp. 39–42).
  • S. Nakamoto, Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, 2008. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility 3: Hard/Soft Floor Mechanisms Are Optimal Among Deterministic ε-IC Mechanisms and Gain Θ(ε)Research Paper

Motivation

Classical mechanism design assumes that agents best-respond exactly: a buyer who gains even an infinitesimal amount by misreporting will misreport. In practice agents face cognitive and computational costs, and a buyer may ignore a deviation that gains less than some small amount ε\varepsilonε. A seller facing such a buyer only needs to satisfy the incentive constraints up to ε\varepsilonε, and the natural question is how much revenue this relaxation is worth.

Balseiro, Besbes and Castro (arXiv:2103.03403v2, 2022; Operations Research, 2024) study this question in the simplest setting, one seller and one buyer with a single item. Their answer separates deterministic and randomized mechanisms. This mission formalizes the deterministic half: Theorem 2, which identifies the optimal deterministic ε\varepsilonε-incentive-compatible mechanism and shows that its revenue gain over the classical optimum is exactly linear in ε\varepsilonε.

Setting

The buyer's value vvv for the item is drawn from a distribution FFF with a density f≥0f\ge0f≥0 supported in S=[0,vˉ]S=[0,\bar v]S=[0,vˉ], vˉ>0\bar v>0vˉ>0, with ∫0vˉf=1\int_0^{\bar v}f=1∫0vˉ​f=1. Assumption 1 adds that fff has bounded variation on SSS. Write F(v)=∫0vfF(v)=\int_0^v fF(v)=∫0v​f, Fˉ=1−F\bar F=1-FFˉ=1−F, and R(v)=v Fˉ(v)R(v)=v\,\bar F(v)R(v)=vFˉ(v) for the revenue of a posted price vvv.

A direct mechanism m=(x,t)m=(x,t)m=(x,t) assigns to each reported value vvv an allocation probability x(v)∈[0,1]x(v)\in[0,1]x(v)∈[0,1] and a payment t(v)∈Rt(v)\in\mathbb Rt(v)∈R. It is individually rational (IR) if v x(v)−t(v)≥0v\,x(v)-t(v)\ge0vx(v)−t(v)≥0 for all v∈Sv\in Sv∈S, and ε\varepsilonε-incentive compatible (ICε_\varepsilonε​) if

v x(v)−t(v) ≥ v x(v′)−t(v′)−εfor all v,v′∈S.v\,x(v)-t(v)\ \ge\ v\,x(v')-t(v')-\varepsilon\qquad\text{for all }v,v'\in S.vx(v)−t(v) ≥ vx(v′)−t(v′)−εfor all v,v′∈S.

M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε) denotes the feasible mechanisms, and Md(ε)={m∈M(ε):x(S)⊆{0,1}}\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)=\{m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon):x(S)\subseteq\{0,1\}\}Md​(ε)={m∈M(ε):x(S)⊆{0,1}} the deterministic ones. The revenue is Π(m)=∫0vˉt(v)f(v) dv\Pi(m)=\int_0^{\bar v}t(v)f(v)\,dvΠ(m)=∫0vˉ​t(v)f(v)dv and Π⋆(M)=sup⁡m∈MΠ(m)\Pi^\star(\mathcal M)=\sup_{m\in\mathcal M}\Pi(m)Π⋆(M)=supm∈M​Π(m). At ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0 the optimum Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) is attained by a posted price at any maximizer p⋆p^\starp⋆ of RRR on SSS.

The hard/soft floor mechanism md(p,s)m_d(p,s)md​(p,s), p≤sp\le sp≤s, allocates the item to every report v≥pv\ge pv≥p; a report in [p,s)[p,s)[p,s) pays its own value and a report v≥sv\ge sv≥s pays sss:

xd(v)=1{v≥p},td(v)=v 1{v∈[p,s)}+s 1{v≥s}.x_d(v)=\mathbf 1\{v\ge p\},\qquad t_d(v)=v\,\mathbf 1\{v\in[p,s)\}+s\,\mathbf 1\{v\ge s\}.xd​(v)=1{v≥p},td​(v)=v1{v∈[p,s)}+s1{v≥s}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (pp. 24–25)

Under Assumption 1:

  1. for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 some md(p,p+ε)m_d(p,p+\varepsilon)md​(p,p+ε), p∈[0,vˉ]p\in[0,\bar v]p∈[0,vˉ], lies in Md(ε)\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)Md​(ε), earns at least as much as every mechanism of Md(ε)\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)Md​(ε), and maximizes Π(md(p′,p′+ε))\Pi(m_d(p',p'+\varepsilon))Π(md​(p′,p′+ε)) over p′∈[0,vˉ]p'\in[0,\bar v]p′∈[0,vˉ];
Π⋆(Md(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=Θ(ε),\Pi^\star(\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon))-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))=\Theta(\varepsilon),Π⋆(Md​(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=Θ(ε),

that is, there are c,C,ε0>0c,C,\varepsilon_0>0c,C,ε0​>0 with Π⋆(M(0))+cε≤Π⋆(Md(ε))≤Π⋆(M(0))+Cε\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+c\varepsilon\le\Pi^\star(\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon))\le\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+C\varepsilonΠ⋆(M(0))+cε≤Π⋆(Md​(ε))≤Π⋆(M(0))+Cε for all ε∈(0,ε0]\varepsilon\in(0,\varepsilon_0]ε∈(0,ε0​].

Milestones

  • §2.1, p. 13: a posted price at p⋆∈arg⁡max⁡SRp^\star\in\arg\max_S Rp⋆∈argmaxS​R is optimal for (P0)(\mathcal P_0)(P0​), so Π⋆(M(0))=R(p⋆)\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))=R(p^\star)Π⋆(M(0))=R(p⋆).
  • Appendix B, p. 53: md(r,r+ε)∈Md(ε)m_d(r,r+\varepsilon)\in\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)md​(r,r+ε)∈Md​(ε) for every r∈Sr\in Sr∈S.
  • Appendix B, p. 53: Π(md(r,r+ε))=∫rr+εvf(v) dv+(r+ε)Fˉ(r+ε)=rFˉ(r)+∫rr+εFˉ(v) dv\Pi(m_d(r,r+\varepsilon))=\int_r^{r+\varepsilon}vf(v)\,dv+(r+\varepsilon)\bar F(r+\varepsilon)=r\bar F(r)+\int_r^{r+\varepsilon}\bar F(v)\,dvΠ(md​(r,r+ε))=∫rr+ε​vf(v)dv+(r+ε)Fˉ(r+ε)=rFˉ(r)+∫rr+ε​Fˉ(v)dv.
  • Appendix B, eq. (23), pp. 52–53: every m∈Md(ε)m\in\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)m∈Md​(ε) has payments bounded pointwise by those of some md(r,r+ε)m_d(r,r+\varepsilon)md​(r,r+ε), hence Π(m)≤Π(md(r,r+ε))\Pi(m)\le\Pi(m_d(r,r+\varepsilon))Π(m)≤Π(md​(r,r+ε)).

Significance

Theorem 2 settles what deterministic mechanisms can do against an ε\varepsilonε-optimizing buyer: the gain is linear in ε\varepsilonε, no more and no less. The lower half shows that any optimal approximately incentive compatible mechanism gains at least order ε\varepsilonε; the upper half shows that a seller who wants more must randomize. Together with the paper's Theorems 1 and 3 (other missions of this series), which give the rate εα/(2α−1)\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)}εα/(2α−1) for randomized mechanisms under a curvature condition on RRR, it locates the full spectrum of achievable gains between ε\varepsilonε and ε1/2\varepsilon^{1/2}ε1/2. The hard/soft floor form is also a practical design: a posted price followed by a pay-your-bid band of width ε\varepsilonε.

The result is proved in the paper's online appendix. To the best of our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof; the classical posted-price optimality has a formalization on Prove2Me under the stronger assumption of a strictly positive density, and this mission needs it for densities that may vanish.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for "an optimal deterministic mechanism is a hard/soft floor" starts from an optimal mechanism, which need not exist a priori, and takes its allocation right-continuous "without loss of generality". Neither step is available for an arbitrary measurable mechanism: the allocation set {x=1}\{x=1\}{x=1} may have no least element, and changing xxx on a null set can break ICε_\varepsilonε​ at individual points. The domination milestone is therefore stated for every deterministic mechanism. The revenue identity needs integration by parts for an absolutely continuous FFF whose density may vanish or be discontinuous, and the comparison with Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) needs the classical posted-price optimality without positivity of fff. The lower bound needs the optimal price to sit strictly inside (0,vˉ)(0,\bar v)(0,vˉ) and Fˉ\bar FFˉ to stay bounded away from zero just above it.

Formalization scope

Values are reals and every function is a total function R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; only its values on S=[0,vˉ]S=[0,\bar v]S=[0,vˉ] matter. Mechanisms are required to be measurable (implicit in Ev[t(v)]\mathbb E_v[t(v)]Ev​[t(v)]); IR and ICε_\varepsilonε​ then make ttt bounded on SSS, so revenue integrals are genuine. Π⋆\Pi^\starΠ⋆ is a supremum (sSup) of a nonempty set of revenues bounded above by vˉ\bar vvˉ. The goal's Θ(ε)\Theta(\varepsilon)Θ(ε) is the conjunction of the paper's O\mathcal OO and Ω\OmegaΩ (p. 13), with constants depending on the distribution but chosen before ε\varepsilonε, written as "some deterministic mechanism earns at least Π⋆(M(0))+cε\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+c\varepsilonΠ⋆(M(0))+cε, every one earns at most Π⋆(M(0))+Cε\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+C\varepsilonΠ⋆(M(0))+Cε"; Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) stays a supremum and is not replaced by R(p⋆)R(p^\star)R(p⋆). The payment region of mdm_dmd​ is [p,s)[p,s)[p,s) as in the proof (the theorem prints [p,s][p,s][p,s], which double-counts at v=sv=sv=s). The hard floor ranges over [0,vˉ][0,\bar v][0,vˉ], so the soft floor p+εp+\varepsilonp+ε may exceed vˉ\bar vvˉ.

The domination statement quantifies over all of Md(ε)\mathcal M_d(\varepsilon)Md​(ε), not over monotone or right-continuous mechanisms, and the Θ(ε)\Theta(\varepsilon)Θ(ε) constants may not depend on ε\varepsilonε; either restriction would trivialize the result.

The development needs interval integrals, integration by parts for absolutely continuous functions, and continuity of Fˉ\bar FFˉ. The posted-price optimality milestone is reusable for every single-buyer revenue question and is welcome as a stand-alone contribution.

Selected references

  • S. R. Balseiro, O. Besbes, F. Castro, Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility, arXiv:2103.03403v2, 2022; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03403v2
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • J. Riley, R. Zeckhauser, Optimal Selling Strategies: When to Haggle, When to Hold Firm, Quarterly Journal of Economics 98(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/1885622
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Scaling Blockchains: Can Committee-Based Consensus Help? I: With a Vote-Probability Gap δ, an Honest Committee Is Elected with Probability at Least 1 − 2m²e^{−δ²n/2}Research Paper

Motivation

Many proof-of-stake blockchains do not let every participant produce blocks. Instead, token holders elect a small committee of block producers, and the committee runs a Byzantine agreement protocol among itself. EOS, for example, elects 21 producers by approval voting: each token holder approves a set of candidates, and the 21 candidates with the most approvals form the committee. Byzantine agreement protocols are safe only while a large enough fraction of the committee is honest, typically more than two thirds, so the security of the whole chain rests on a question of social choice: does approval voting, with voters who see only noisy information about the candidates, elect a committee with enough honest members?

Benhaim, Falk and Tsoukalas (arXiv:2110.08673v2, Management Science 2023) model this election and analyse it. Their main result, Theorem 3, shows that whatever strategies the voters use, as long as the honest candidates are approved with probability at least a fixed margin δ\deltaδ above the dishonest ones, the probability of electing an honest committee converges to one exponentially fast in the number of voters. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

There are nnn voters and mmm candidates (block producers), and a committee of size k≤mk\le mk≤m is to be elected. Each voter iii submits an approval ballot Cvi\mathcal C_{v_i}Cvi​​, a subset of the candidates. The score of candidate jjj is the number of voters approving it,

score⁡(j)=Xj=∣{ i:j∈Cvi}∣.\operatorname{score}(j)=X_j=\bigl|\{\,i : j\in\mathcal C_{v_i}\}\bigr| .score(j)=Xj​=​{i:j∈Cvi​​}​.

The elected committee T\mathbb TT consists of kkk candidates with the highest scores. When several candidates tie at the lowest elected score, or when fewer than kkk candidates have a non-zero score, the paper resolves the choice adversarially. Formally, a set TTT of candidates is an admissible committee if ∣T∣=k|T|=k∣T∣=k and Xb≤XaX_b\le X_aXb​≤Xa​ for every a∈Ta\in Ta∈T and b∉Tb\notin Tb∈/T.

Each candidate is honest or dishonest. Let M\mathcal MM denote the set of dishonest candidates. For a tolerance p∈[0,1]p\in[0,1]p∈[0,1] (for instance p=1/3p=1/3p=1/3), the committee is honest, written T=H\mathbb T=HT=H, if it has at least ⌈(1−p)k⌉\lceil(1-p)k\rceil⌈(1−p)k⌉ honest members. Because ties and filling are adversarial, T=H\mathbb T=HT=H means that every admissible committee has at least ⌈(1−p)k⌉\lceil(1-p)k\rceil⌈(1−p)k⌉ members outside M\mathcal MM.

The ballots are random: they are drawn on a probability space, independently across voters, while the approvals inside a single ballot may depend on each other in any way. The vote probability pij=Pr⁡[j∈Cvi]p_{ij}=\Pr[j\in\mathcal C_{v_i}]pij​=Pr[j∈Cvi​​] is the probability that voter iii approves candidate jjj. The candidates' types are fixed throughout, and all randomness is in the ballots.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 22)

Suppose there are a set H\mathcal HH of honest candidates with ∣H∣≥(1−p)k|\mathcal H|\ge(1-p)k∣H∣≥(1−p)k and a δ>0\delta>0δ>0 with min⁡i, j∈Hpij≥max⁡i, j∈Mpij+δ\min_{i,\,j\in\mathcal H}p_{ij}\ge\max_{i,\,j\in\mathcal M}p_{ij}+\deltamini,j∈H​pij​≥maxi,j∈M​pij​+δ. Then

Pr⁡[T=H] ≥ 1−2m2e−δ2n/2.\Pr[\mathbb T=H]\ \ge\ 1-2m^2e^{-\delta^2 n/2}.Pr[T=H] ≥ 1−2m2e−δ2n/2.

Milestones (in the order the proof on p. 48 uses them)

  1. Opening claim of the proof (p. 48). If every member of H\mathcal HH outscores every member of M\mathcal MM, then T=H\mathbb T=HT=H (deterministic).
  2. Theorem 1 (pp. 15–16). Each vote count is Poisson binomial:
Pr⁡[Xj=x]=∑∣A∣=x ∏i∈Apij∏i∉A(1−pij).\Pr[X_j=x]=\sum_{|A|=x}\ \prod_{i\in A}p_{ij}\prod_{i\notin A}(1-p_{ij}).Pr[Xj​=x]=∣A∣=x∑​ i∈A∏​pij​i∈/A∏​(1−pij​).
  1. Theorem 6 (p. 50). Chernoff–Hoeffding for a Poisson binomial XXX with mean npˉn\bar pnpˉ​: Pr⁡[X>npˉ+t]≤e−2t2/n\Pr[X>n\bar p+t]\le e^{-2t^2/n}Pr[X>npˉ​+t]≤e−2t2/n and Pr⁡[X<npˉ−t]≤e−2t2/n\Pr[X<n\bar p-t]\le e^{-2t^2/n}Pr[X<npˉ​−t]≤e−2t2/n for t>0t>0t>0.
  2. (82). For jh∈Hj_h\in\mathcal Hjh​∈H, jm∈Mj_m\in\mathcal Mjm​∈M: Pr⁡[Xjh≤Xjm]≤2e−δ2n/2\Pr[X_{j_h}\le X_{j_m}]\le 2e^{-\delta^2n/2}Pr[Xjh​​≤Xjm​​]≤2e−δ2n/2.
  3. (83). Pr⁡[Xjm<Xjh ∀jh∈H, jm∈M]≥1−2m2e−δ2n/2\Pr[X_{j_m}<X_{j_h}\ \forall j_h\in\mathcal H,\ j_m\in\mathcal M]\ge1-2m^2e^{-\delta^2n/2}Pr[Xjm​​<Xjh​​ ∀jh​∈H, jm​∈M]≥1−2m2e−δ2n/2.

Significance

The theorem is the paper's answer to its title question. Its bound holds for every voting behaviour, including the threshold and cardinal strategies the paper studies and strategies with arbitrary correlation inside a ballot. So the security guarantee does not depend on voters coordinating or on knowing the signal model. All it needs is that signals are informative by a margin δ\deltaδ. The bound also shows the trade-off quantitatively: the failure probability grows quadratically in the number of candidates mmm and decays exponentially in the number of voters nnn. This is the basis of the paper's Corollaries 1 and 2 on the threshold and cardinal strategies.

The paper proves the result on paper (Appendix B.2, p. 48), using a Chernoff–Hoeffding bound it cites from Dubhashi and Panconesi. As far as the platform's index shows, no machine-checked version of the result or of its committee model exists. The mission contributes the first formal model of kkk-winner approval voting with adversarial tie-breaking on Prove2Me, a formal statement of the Poisson-binomial law of approval counts, and the one-sided Hoeffding bound for sums of independent Bernoulli variables in the e−2t2/ne^{-2t^2/n}e−2t2/n form. The formalization also records three places where the printed text needs correcting (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

There are two difficulties. The first is the committee predicate. Ties and under-filled committees are resolved by an adversary, so T=H\mathbb T=HT=H is a statement about every admissible committee, not about one top-kkk list. The reduction from honesty to the score-separation event has to handle both the case where all of H\mathcal HH is elected and the case where some member of H\mathcal HH is left out, so that every elected candidate outscores it.

The second is the concentration step. The vote counts of different candidates are not independent, because each voter's ballot ties the approvals together, so no argument that treats the mmm counts as independent variables applies. The paper's own step from the gap to (82), the split (80)/(81), uses strict inequalities and is false when the two thresholds coincide at an attained integer value; the printed Hoeffding bound (Theorem 6) is strict as well, so the printed chain does not close as written at that boundary.

Formalization scope

  • Voters are Fin n and candidates Fin m, both 0-based. A random ballot is a measurable map Ω → (Fin m → Bool) on a probability space (Ω, P). The ballots are mutually independent (iIndepFun), and each voter's ballot law is otherwise arbitrary. This generalises the paper's Gaussian signal model and its strategy classes, which are not formalized, and the paper's per-type probabilities pih,pimp^h_i,p^m_ipih​,pim​ become per-candidate pijp_{ij}pij​. The cap ∣Cv∣≤t|\mathcal C_v|\le t∣Cv​∣≤t of Definition 2 is not imposed. The printed statements are special cases.
  • T=H\mathbb T=HT=H is the predicate "every set TTT with ∣T∣=k|T|=k∣T∣=k and no outsider scoring above a member has ∣T∖M∣≥⌈(1−p)k⌉|T\setminus\mathcal M|\ge\lceil(1-p)k\rceil∣T∖M∣≥⌈(1−p)k⌉", with an integer ceiling. A formalization in which some admissible committee is honest, or in which the committee is chosen by a fixed tie-breaking rule, is a different and weaker theorem. Without the condition ∣T∣=k|T|=k∣T∣=k the predicate would be trivial. An admissible committee exists for every score vector when k≤mk\le mk≤m.
  • Standing assumptions that are made explicit: k≤mk\le mk≤m (p. 9), 0≤p≤10\le p\le10≤p≤1 (ppp is the tolerated fraction, which the paper never bounds; the opening claim of the proof fails for p<0p<0p<0), independence across voters (§5.1.2), and measurability of each ballot.
  • The min/max gap of Theorem 3 is stated pairwise for all voters i,i′i,i'i,i′, all jh∈Hj_h\in\mathcal Hjh​∈H and all jm∈Mj_m\in\mathcal Mjm​∈M. This is equivalent when both sets are nonempty and avoids undefined extrema otherwise.
  • Corrected slips: Theorem 6 is stated for t>0t>0t>0 and n≥1n\ge1n≥1, since it is false for negative ttt and divides by nnn. (80)/(81) are not posed, and (82) is stated as a bound on Pr⁡[Xjh≤Xjm]\Pr[X_{j_h}\le X_{j_m}]Pr[Xjh​​≤Xjm​​].
  • Infrastructure needed: Mathlib's independence, Measure.real, sub-Gaussian concentration for bounded independent variables, and Finset.powersetCard. The committee definitions and the Poisson-binomial law can be reused by later missions on voting and on the companion single-voter result. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, and so are alternative routes to the goal.

Selected references

  • A. Benhaim, B. H. Falk, G. Tsoukalas, Scaling Blockchains: Can Committee-Based Consensus Help?, Management Science, 2023; preprint arXiv:2110.08673v2, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2110.08673v2 (DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2022.03177)
  • D. P. Dubhashi, A. Panconesi, Concentration of Measure for the Analysis of Randomized Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511581274
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability Inequalities for Sums of Bounded Random Variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

An Approximate Analysis of Dynamic Pricing, Outsourcing, and Scheduling Policies for a Multiclass Make-to-Stock Queue in the Heavy Traffic Regime: The Two-Barrier Drift-Rate Control Policy Is OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

A manufacturer that makes several products to stock for price-sensitive customers controls three levers at once: the prices it posts, which shape demand; outsourcing, which clears a large backlog at a cost; and scheduling, which decides which product the single server makes next. Ata and Barjesteh (Operations Research 71(1), 2023) study this multiclass make-to-stock queue in the heavy-traffic regime, where the queue is nearly saturated and the system is approximated by a Brownian control problem. The approximation collapses to a one-dimensional problem in the workload, the total amount of work in the system. Its solution is a two-barrier policy whose state-dependent drift translates back into a dynamic pricing rule, an outsourcing threshold and a scheduling priority (§7 of the paper).

The one-dimensional problem belongs to the family of drift-rate control problems for Brownian motion under a long-run average cost criterion (Ata, Harrison and Shepp, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2005; Rubino and Ata, Oper. Res. 2009). Problems of this kind are solved by a Bellman equation with free boundaries and a verification argument; the present paper adds two-sided singular control (outsourcing at the bottom, idling at the top) to a quadratic drift cost and a piecewise linear state cost.

Setting

There are K≥1K\ge1K≥1 products with mean production times mk>0m_k>0mk​>0 and holding, backorder and outsourcing cost rates hk,bk,rk>0h_k,b_k,r_k>0hk​,bk​,rk​>0. A symmetric positive definite matrix HHH describes the curvature of the revenue rate. Write a=m′H−1ma=m'H^{-1}ma=m′H−1m and

h⋆=min⁡khkmk,b⋆=min⁡kbkmk,κ=min⁡krkmk.h^\star=\min_k\frac{h_k}{m_k},\qquad b^\star=\min_k\frac{b_k}{m_k},\qquad \kappa=\min_k\frac{r_k}{m_k}.h⋆=kmin​mk​hk​​,b⋆=kmin​mk​bk​​,κ=kmin​mk​rk​​.

The drift cost and the effective holding cost are

c(x)=min⁡{ζ′Hζ: m′ζ=x},h(w)=h⋆w (w≥0),h(w)=−b⋆w (w<0).c(x)=\min\{\zeta'H\zeta:\ m'\zeta=x\},\qquad h(w)=h^\star w\ (w\ge0),\quad h(w)=-b^\star w\ (w<0).c(x)=min{ζ′Hζ: m′ζ=x},h(w)=h⋆w (w≥0),h(w)=−b⋆w (w<0).

Let BBB be a Brownian motion with drift μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0 and variance σ2>0\sigma^2>0σ2>0, started at 000, with respect to a filtration F\mathbb FF. An admissible control consists of a progressively measurable drift rate θ\thetaθ and nondecreasing, right-continuous, adapted processes LLL (effective outsourcing) and UUU (idleness) with L(0)=U(0)=0L(0)=U(0)=0L(0)=U(0)=0. The workload is

W(t)=B(t)−∫0tθ(s) ds−U(t)+L(t),W(t)=B(t)-\int_0^t\theta(s)\,ds-U(t)+L(t),W(t)=B(t)−∫0t​θ(s)ds−U(t)+L(t),

and admissibility also requires E∣W(t)∣/t→0\mathbb E|W(t)|/t\to0E∣W(t)∣/t→0. The equivalent workload formulation (EWF) is to minimize

lim sup⁡t→∞1t E[∫0tc(θ(s)) ds+∫0th(W(s)) ds+κL(t)].(29)\limsup_{t\to\infty}\frac1t\,\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^tc(\theta(s))\,ds+\int_0^th(W(s))\,ds+\kappa L(t)\Big]. \tag{29}t→∞limsup​t1​E[∫0t​c(θ(s))ds+∫0t​h(W(s))ds+κL(t)].(29)

A barrier policy with barriers l<ul<ul<u keeps WWW in [l,u][l,u][l,u], increases LLL only when W=lW=lW=l and UUU only when W=uW=uW=u.

For γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0 put lγ=−1b⋆(γ+μκ+a4κ2)l_\gamma=-\frac1{b^\star}(\gamma+\mu\kappa+\frac a4\kappa^2)lγ​=−b⋆1​(γ+μκ+4a​κ2) and uγ=γ/h⋆u_\gamma=\gamma/h^\staruγ​=γ/h⋆. Let vγ−v^-_\gammavγ−​ solve the Riccati equation

v′=a2σ2(v2−κ2)−2μσ2(v+κ)+2(h(lγ)−h(w))σ2 on [lγ,0],v(lγ)=−κ,v'=\frac a{2\sigma^2}(v^2-\kappa^2)-\frac{2\mu}{\sigma^2}(v+\kappa)+\frac{2(h(l_\gamma)-h(w))}{\sigma^2}\ \text{on }[l_\gamma,0],\qquad v(l_\gamma)=-\kappa,v′=2σ2a​(v2−κ2)−σ22μ​(v+κ)+σ22(h(lγ​)−h(w))​ on [lγ​,0],v(lγ​)=−κ,

and vγ+v^+_\gammavγ+​ solve v′=a2σ2v2−2μσ2v+2(h(uγ)−h(w))σ2v'=\frac a{2\sigma^2}v^2-\frac{2\mu}{\sigma^2}v+\frac{2(h(u_\gamma)-h(w))}{\sigma^2}v′=2σ2a​v2−σ22μ​v+σ22(h(uγ​)−h(w))​ on [0,uγ][0,u_\gamma][0,uγ​] with v(uγ)=0v(u_\gamma)=0v(uγ​)=0. The paper's γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆ is the unique γ\gammaγ with vγ−(0)=vγ+(0)v^-_{\gamma}(0)=v^+_{\gamma}(0)vγ−​(0)=vγ+​(0); vvv pastes vγ⋆−v^-_{\gamma^\star}vγ⋆−​ and vγ⋆+v^+_{\gamma^\star}vγ⋆+​ at 000, and the candidate drift is θ(w)=a2v(w)\theta(w)=\frac a2v(w)θ(w)=2a​v(w).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

For every filtered probability space carrying such a Brownian motion,

lim⁡t→∞Jcand(t)t=γ⋆for every barrier policy at (lγ⋆,uγ⋆) with drift θ(W),lim sup⁡t→∞J(t)t≥γ⋆ for every admissible control,\lim_{t\to\infty}\frac{J_{\text{cand}}(t)}t=\gamma^\star\quad\text{for every barrier policy at }(l_{\gamma^\star},u_{\gamma^\star})\text{ with drift }\theta(W),\qquad \limsup_{t\to\infty}\frac{J(t)}t\ge\gamma^\star\ \text{for every admissible control},t→∞lim​tJcand​(t)​=γ⋆for every barrier policy at (lγ⋆​,uγ⋆​) with drift θ(W),t→∞limsup​tJ(t)​≥γ⋆ for every admissible control,

where JJJ is the expected cumulative cost in (29). The constant γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆ is the paper's construction, not a parameter.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 and Lemma 2: the closed forms c(x)=x2/ac(x)=x^2/ac(x)=x2/a and its conjugate φ(y)=a4y2\varphi(y)=\frac a4y^2φ(y)=4a​y2, maximized at ψ(y)=a2y\psi(y)=\frac a2yψ(y)=2a​y.
  2. Proposition 2: a barrier policy whose (γ,f)(\gamma,f)(γ,f) solves the ODE (35)–(36) has long-run average cost γ\gammaγ.
  3. Lemma 3: any solution of the Riccati-form Bellman equation (43)–(45) has γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, l=lγ<0l=l_\gamma<0l=lγ​<0, u=uγ>0u=u_\gamma>0u=uγ​>0.
  4. Lemmas 18–20 and Corollary 6: sign and monotonicity of the Riccati solutions.
  5. §6.3 well-posedness, Lemma 4(i)–(ii), Corollary 1: uniqueness of vγ±v^\pm_\gammavγ±​, their monotone dependence on γ\gammaγ, and the unique crossing γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆.
  6. Proposition 3 and Corollary 2: (lγ⋆,uγ⋆,γ⋆,v)(l_{\gamma^\star},u_{\gamma^\star},\gamma^\star,v)(lγ⋆​,uγ⋆​,γ⋆,v) is the unique solution of (43)–(45), and f=∫vf=\int vf=∫v solves the Bellman equation (37)–(39), uniquely up to a constant.

Significance

The theorem identifies an explicit optimal policy for a two-sided singular drift-control problem: two barriers and a strictly increasing, non-positive drift, all determined by a scalar root γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆ of a monotone equation. In the paper it drives the proposed pricing, outsourcing and scheduling policy (§7) and its asymptotic analysis; the Riccati structure is what makes γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆ computable by line search.

The result is proved in the paper; none of it has been machine-checked. Formalizing it gives a checked verification theorem for an average-cost Brownian control problem with singular controls, and checked statements of the Riccati comparison lemmas on which it rests. Several printed statements of the paper are corrected here (see the scope section), so the formal versions are the first fully precise ones.

Difficulty

The optimality half of Theorem 1 is a verification argument: apply Itô's formula to f(W(t))f(W(t))f(W(t)) for an arbitrary admissible control with jumps in LLL and UUU, use the Bellman inequality pointwise, and control Ef(W(t))/t\mathbb E f(W(t))/tEf(W(t))/t with the growth condition (32). Mathlib does not yet have Itô's formula for continuous semimartingales with finite-variation, possibly discontinuous parts, and the candidate's average cost (Proposition 2) needs the same tool plus the fact that a reflected diffusion spends zero time at the barriers.

The deterministic half is not routine either. The obvious reading of the paper, solving each Riccati problem for every γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0 and passing γ→∞\gamma\to\inftyγ→∞, fails: the solutions blow up in finite time, so vγ±v^\pm_\gammavγ±​ exist only for γ\gammaγ in a bounded initial interval, and the crossing argument must be run on that interval. The comparison arguments of Lemmas 18–20 also need second derivatives of solutions whose right-hand side has a kink at w=0w=0w=0.

Formalization scope

Time is indexed by R\mathbb RR and only t≥0t\ge0t≥0 matters. The Brownian motion is defined locally (drift, variance, start at 000, independence of increments from the filtration). Expected costs are computed in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so a control with infinite cost counts as +∞+\infty+∞. The integrals in (34) are Lebesgue–Stieltjes integrals against the paths of LLL and UUU, jumps included. Derivatives at the barriers are one-sided; C1C^1C1 and C2C^2C2 up to the boundary are ContDiffOn on the closed interval. Minima and maxima (in ccc, (37), (40)) are stated as attained.

Standing assumptions added to every statement, all implicit in the paper: K≥1K\ge1K≥1; mk,hk,bk,rk>0m_k,h_k,b_k,r_k>0mk​,hk​,bk​,rk​>0; HHH symmetric positive definite; μ≥0\mu\ge0μ≥0, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0; BBB starts at 000; L,UL,UL,U right-continuous; θ\thetaθ progressively measurable with locally integrable paths; l<ul<ul<u in the Bellman equations.

Corrected statements. Lemmas 18–20 are printed for solutions on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), which do not exist; they are posed on every bounded interval where a solution exists. The §6.3 claim that vγ±v^\pm_\gammavγ±​ exist for every γ≥0\gamma\ge0γ≥0 is replaced by uniqueness, solvability at γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 and order-connectedness of the solvability sets. Lemma 4's limits as γ→∞\gamma\to\inftyγ→∞ become unboundedness on those sets. Theorem 1's comparison class is every admissible control, which the paper's proof treats, and which contains the stationary Markov policies to which §6 restricts attention.

Not posed. The existence of the reflected diffusion realizing the candidate policy is presupposed by the paper and not claimed: the first half of the goal quantifies over all barrier policies with the given data. The second half is a statement about every admissible control and is not vacuous.

γ⋆\gamma^\starγ⋆, vvv, fff and θ\thetaθ are built from the Riccati solutions by choice, exactly as the paper constructs them; taking them as hypotheses-constrained parameters, or defining ccc by its closed form, would trivialize the goal and is ruled out. Contributions are welcome on the Riccati lemmas (pure real analysis, reusable for other drift-control problems), on Itô's formula for semimartingales with finite-variation parts, and on Skorokhod-type existence of reflected diffusions.

Selected references

  • B. Ata and N. Barjesteh, An Approximate Analysis of Dynamic Pricing, Outsourcing, and Scheduling Policies for a Multiclass Make-to-Stock Queue in the Heavy Traffic Regime, Operations Research 71(1):341–357, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2361 (accepted manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3464763)
  • B. Ata, J. M. Harrison and L. A. Shepp, Drift rate control of a Brownian processing system, Annals of Applied Probability 15(2):1145–1160, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1214/105051604000000855
  • M. Rubino and B. Ata, Dynamic control of a make-to-order, parallel-server system with cancellations, Operations Research 57(1):94–108, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0532
  • J. M. Harrison, Brownian Models of Performance and Control, Cambridge University Press, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139087698
18 thms1 active userReviewed
Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement I: The Bellman Equation of the Drift-Rate Control Problem Has a SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Non-profit organizations depend on volunteers whose availability they cannot schedule. They can only influence it, through recruiting drives, reminders and recognition events. Ata, Tongarlak, Lee and Field (arXiv:2312.02920) model a food-recovery non-profit's volunteer pool as a queueing network. Repeat volunteers rest between shifts, one-time volunteers arrive at random, and all signed-up volunteers wait on one sign-up list, from which they may abandon. The organization pays for engagement activities that speed up volunteers' return, and it is penalized when tasks go uncovered because the list is empty.

In heavy traffic the problem reduces to a one-dimensional drift-rate control problem. A workload process W≥0W \ge 0W≥0 behaves like a reflected Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process whose drift θ(t)\theta(t)θ(t) the controller chooses from an interval A=[θ0,θL]A = [\theta_0, \theta_L]A=[θ0​,θL​] at cost c(θ(t))c(\theta(t))c(θ(t)), plus a penalty ppp per unit of idleness at W=0W = 0W=0. The analytic core of the paper is the Bellman equation of this problem: a first-order ordinary differential equation on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with an unknown constant. Its solution yields the optimal long-run average cost and a nested threshold policy for when to run each engagement activity.

Setting

There are L≥1L \ge 1L≥1 engagement activities. The data are a lowest drift θ0<0\theta_0 < 0θ0​<0, drift increments η1,…,ηL>0\eta_1, \dots, \eta_L > 0η1​,…,ηL​>0, per-unit-drift costs 0<c1<c2<⋯<cL<p0 < c_1 < c_2 < \dots < c_L < p0<c1​<c2​<⋯<cL​<p, an idleness cost rate p>0p > 0p>0, a mean-reversion rate κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 and a volatility σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0. The breakpoints are

θl=θ0+∑i=1lηi,l=0,1,…,L,\theta_l = \theta_0 + \sum_{i=1}^{l} \eta_i, \qquad l = 0, 1, \dots, L,θl​=θ0​+i=1∑l​ηi​,l=0,1,…,L,

and A=[θ0,θL]A = [\theta_0, \theta_L]A=[θ0​,θL​]. The engagement cost c:A→R+c : A \to \mathbb{R}_+c:A→R+​ is piecewise linear and convex: c(θ0)=0c(\theta_0) = 0c(θ0​)=0, with slope clc_lcl​ on (θl−1,θl](\theta_{l-1}, \theta_l](θl−1​,θl​], so that c(x)=∑i=1l−1ciηi+cl(x−θl−1)c(x) = \sum_{i=1}^{l-1} c_i \eta_i + c_l (x - \theta_{l-1})c(x)=∑i=1l−1​ci​ηi​+cl​(x−θl−1​) for θl−1<x≤θl\theta_{l-1} < x \le \theta_lθl−1​<x≤θl​. Its convex conjugate is

ϕ(y)=sup⁡x∈A{yx−c(x)},y∈R.\phi(y) = \sup_{x \in A} \{ y x - c(x) \}, \qquad y \in \mathbb{R}.ϕ(y)=x∈Asup​{yx−c(x)},y∈R.

The Bellman equation (68)–(69) asks for a constant β>0\beta > 0β>0 and a continuously differentiable function vvv on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) such that

β=12σ2v′(x)+xκ (p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,\beta = \tfrac12 \sigma^2 v'(x) + x\kappa\,(p - v(x)) - \phi(p - v(x)), \qquad x \ge 0,β=21​σ2v′(x)+xκ(p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,

with v(0)=0v(0) = 0v(0)=0, vvv strictly increasing, and lim⁡x→∞v(x)=p\lim_{x\to\infty} v(x) = plimx→∞​v(x)=p.

The milestones use the shooting objects of the paper's Online Supplement §F:

  • the lower bound β‾=−inf⁡{ϕ(y):y≤p}\underline\beta = -\inf\{\phi(y) : y \le p\}β​=−inf{ϕ(y):y≤p};
  • the initial value problem IVP(β\betaβ): the same equation with only the condition v(0)=0v(0) = 0v(0)=0; its solution is vβv_\betavβ​;
  • the set I\mathcal II of β>β‾\beta > \underline\betaβ>β​ for which vβv_\betavβ​ is increasing;
  • the set D\mathcal DD of β>β‾\beta > \underline\betaβ>β​ for which vβv_\betavβ​ is nondecreasing on (0,xβ)(0, x_\beta)(0,xβ​) and nonincreasing on (xβ,∞)(x_\beta, \infty)(xβ​,∞) for some xβx_\betaxβ​;
  • the constant β∗=inf⁡I\beta^* = \inf \mathcal Iβ∗=infI.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 21)

∃ β>0, ∃ v∈C1[0,∞):β=12σ2v′+xκ(p−v)−ϕ(p−v)  (x≥0),v(0)=0,v↑,v(x)→p.\exists\, \beta > 0,\ \exists\, v \in C^1[0,\infty):\quad \beta = \tfrac12\sigma^2 v' + x\kappa(p - v) - \phi(p - v)\ \ (x \ge 0),\quad v(0) = 0,\quad v \uparrow,\quad v(x) \to p.∃β>0, ∃v∈C1[0,∞):β=21​σ2v′+xκ(p−v)−ϕ(p−v)  (x≥0),v(0)=0,v↑,v(x)→p.

The goal asserts existence only. It does not identify β\betaβ with inf⁡I\inf\mathcal IinfI, and it does not claim uniqueness.

Milestones (Online Supplement §F, in attack order)

  1. β‾>0\underline\beta > 0β​>0 (OS p. 13).
  2. Lemma 3: ϕ\phiϕ is Lipschitz with constant max⁡0≤k≤L∣θk∣\max_{0\le k\le L} |\theta_k|max0≤k≤L​∣θk​∣.
  3. Lemma 4: IVP(β\betaβ) has a unique C1C^1C1 solution on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) for β>β‾\beta > \underline\betaβ>β​.
  4. Lemma 6: vβ(x)v_\beta(x)vβ​(x) is strictly increasing in β\betaβ for x>0x > 0x>0 and continuous in β\betaβ.
  5. Corollary 2: vβv_\betavβ​ has no flat pieces.
  6. Lemmas 10, 12, 15, 16: descriptions of D\mathcal DD. Membership in D\mathcal DD is equivalent to vβ′<0v_\beta' < 0vβ′​<0 somewhere, to vβ<0v_\beta < 0vβ​<0 somewhere, and to vβ→−∞v_\beta \to -\inftyvβ​→−∞. D\mathcal DD is closed downward.
  7. Lemmas 13, 14: I,D≠∅\mathcal I, \mathcal D \ne \emptysetI,D=∅, and a characterization of the solutions in I\mathcal II that overshoot ppp.
  8. Lemmas 17, 18, 20: β∗>β‾\beta^* > \underline\betaβ∗>β​, β∗∈I\beta^* \in \mathcal Iβ∗∈I with vβ∗v_{\beta^*}vβ∗​ bounded, and vβ∗(x)→pv_{\beta^*}(x) \to pvβ∗​(x)→p.
  9. Corollary 4: (β∗,vβ∗)(\beta^*, v_{\beta^*})(β∗,vβ∗​) solves (68)–(69).

Significance

The Bellman equation is what makes the paper's policy computable. Theorem 1 provides the constant β∗\beta^*β∗, which the paper's Theorem 2 identifies as the optimal long-run average cost of the workload problem. It also provides the increasing function vvv, whose level sets τl=v−1(p−cl)\tau_l = v^{-1}(p - c_l)τl​=v−1(p−cl​) are the thresholds of the optimal nested policy: engagement activity lll is used when the workload is below τl\tau_lτl​. The companion mission (II) gives vvv in closed form between consecutive thresholds. Both results presuppose the existence proved here.

The paper proves Theorem 1 in its Online Supplement, partly by citation: Lemma 4 is called standard and its proof is omitted. As far as is known, none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. A formalization would also settle two points that the printed argument leaves loose. The lower bound β‾\underline\betaβ​ is written as an infimum over all of R\mathbb{R}R, which is −∞-\infty−∞ when θL<0\theta_L < 0θL​<0. And one step in the proof of Lemma 9 claims that a set of positive measure contains an interval, which is false; the formal chain avoids this step by posing Corollary 2 directly.

Difficulty

The equation is first order but nonlinear through ϕ\phiϕ, and it is posed on an unbounded interval with a boundary condition at infinity. A local existence theorem does not suffice: the right-hand side has linear growth with a coefficient that grows with xxx, so global existence on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and monotone, continuous dependence on β\betaβ must be established separately.

The main difficulty is the shooting step. For a fixed β\betaβ the initial value problem has a solution, but it generally fails the condition v(x)→pv(x) \to pv(x)→p: either it eventually turns down and tends to −∞-\infty−∞, or it crosses ppp and grows without bound. The proof must show the following:

  • the parameter range splits cleanly into these two behaviours, with no third behaviour such as a plateau or a limit strictly between 000 and ppp;
  • both behaviours occur;
  • at the infimum β∗\beta^*β∗ of the increasing regime, the solution is increasing and bounded and converges exactly to ppp.

Continuity in β\betaβ alone does not give the last point: it needs a separate argument at infinity.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated for one fixed parameter set satisfying an explicit predicate Standing: L≥1L \ge 1L≥1, θ0<0\theta_0 < 0θ0​<0, ηl>0\eta_l > 0ηl​>0, 0<c1<⋯<cL<p0 < c_1 < \dots < c_L < p0<c1​<⋯<cL​<p, p,κ,σ>0p, \kappa, \sigma > 0p,κ,σ>0. These are disclosed additions. The paper never restates them for the abstract control problem, but they follow from its queueing primitives ((24), (43), (50), p. 18). No hypothesis θL≥0\theta_L \ge 0θL​≥0 is made.

Conventions:

  • η\etaη and ccc are sequences indexed by N\mathbb{N}N and used at 1,…,L1, \dots, L1,…,L.
  • The cost is (52) written as one sum. It agrees with (52) on AAA, and its values off AAA are never used.
  • ϕ\phiϕ is the real supremum over the compact interval AAA (attained). It is never defined by its closed form.
  • β‾\underline\betaβ​ is −inf⁡{ϕ(y):y≤p}-\inf\{\phi(y) : y \le p\}−inf{ϕ(y):y≤p}. This is the reading the paper's proofs use, and it agrees with the printed −inf⁡y∈Rϕ(y)-\inf_{y \in \mathbb{R}} \phi(y)−infy∈R​ϕ(y) whenever θL≥0\theta_L \ge 0θL​≥0.
  • "Continuously differentiable on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)" is a pair (v,v′)(v, v')(v,v′): v′v'v′ is continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and is the derivative of vvv within [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) at every point (one-sided at 000).
  • "Increasing" means strictly increasing.
  • β∗=inf⁡I\beta^* = \inf \mathcal Iβ∗=infI is a real infimum. Lemmas 13, 17 and 18 make it meaningful; no property of I\mathcal II is assumed.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out. The solution vβv_\betavβ​ is never chosen: every lemma quantifies over all solutions of IVP(β\betaβ). The goal quantifies β\betaβ and vvv existentially and requires all of (69), including the limit ppp and strict monotonicity.

The source is the arXiv preprint v2, including its Online Supplement. The queueing network (§2) and the Brownian control problem (§3) motivate the equation but are not part of any formal statement.

A complete development needs:

  • global existence, uniqueness and comparison for scalar Lipschitz ODEs on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) (Mathlib's IsPicardLindelof and Gronwall bounds are the starting point);
  • the elementary theory of the conjugate of a piecewise linear convex function.

Both are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome in any order. Lemmas 3, 4 and 6 are independent of the shooting lemmas.

Selected references

  • B. Ata, M. H. Tongarlak, D. Lee, J. Field, A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement, arXiv:2312.02920v2, 2023 (Operations Research, 2024). https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.02920
  • B. Ata, J. M. Harrison, L. A. Shepp, Drift rate control of a Brownian processing system, Annals of Applied Probability 15(2), 1145–1160, 2005 (cited in the paper for the conjugate's minimal maximizer).
  • H. B. Keller, Numerical Methods for Two-Point Boundary-Value Problems, Dover, 2018 (cited for Lemma 4).
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism Design·Captain: mikedeng1

Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility 1: Nisan's Rounding Bounds the Revenue Gain of ε-IC Mechanisms by O(ε^(1/2))Research Paper

Motivation

Classical mechanism design assumes that agents are perfect optimizers: a mechanism is incentive compatible if no buyer gains anything, however small, by misreporting. In practice buyers face cognitive and computational costs, and a buyer may not bother to deviate for a gain below some threshold ε\varepsilonε. Balseiro, Besbes and Castro, Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility (arXiv:2103.03403v2, 2022; Operations Research, 2024), ask how much additional revenue a seller can extract when the incentive constraints only need to hold up to ε\varepsilonε.

A known benchmark answers this at order ε\sqrt\varepsilonε​. It comes from a rounding argument attributed to Noam Nisan, used in mechanism design to transform an approximately incentive compatible mechanism into an exactly incentive compatible one (see e.g. Balcan, Blum, Hartline and Mansour, FOCS 2005). The paper states this benchmark as its Proposition 1 and proves it in its online appendix "for completeness". This mission formalizes that benchmark; the paper's sharper, instance-dependent rates are the subject of the other missions of this series.

Setting

A seller sells a single item to one buyer. The buyer's value vvv is drawn from a distribution FFF with a density f≥0f\ge 0f≥0 supported in S=[0,vˉ]S=[0,\bar v]S=[0,vˉ], vˉ>0\bar v>0vˉ>0, with ∫0vˉf=1\int_0^{\bar v} f=1∫0vˉ​f=1.

A direct mechanism m=(x,t)m=(x,t)m=(x,t) assigns to each reported value v∈Sv\in Sv∈S an allocation probability x(v)∈[0,1]x(v)\in[0,1]x(v)∈[0,1] and a payment t(v)∈Rt(v)\in\mathbb Rt(v)∈R (payments may be negative). Given ε≥0\varepsilon\ge 0ε≥0, the mechanism is

  • individually rational (IR) if v⋅x(v)−t(v)≥0v\cdot x(v)-t(v)\ge 0v⋅x(v)−t(v)≥0 for all v∈Sv\in Sv∈S;
  • ε\varepsilonε-incentive compatible (ICε_\varepsilonε​) if v⋅x(v)−t(v)≥v⋅x(v′)−t(v′)−εv\cdot x(v)-t(v)\ge v\cdot x(v')-t(v')-\varepsilonv⋅x(v)−t(v)≥v⋅x(v′)−t(v′)−ε for all v,v′∈Sv,v'\in Sv,v′∈S.

M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε) denotes the set of mechanisms satisfying IR and ICε_\varepsilonε​ (problem (Pε)(\mathcal P_\varepsilon)(Pε​) of the paper). For ε=0\varepsilon=0ε=0 this is the classical feasible set, and M(0)⊂M(ε)\mathcal M(0)\subset\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(0)⊂M(ε). The revenue of mmm is Π(m)=Ev[t(v)]=∫0vˉt(v)f(v) dv\Pi(m)=\mathbb E_v[t(v)]=\int_0^{\bar v}t(v)f(v)\,dvΠ(m)=Ev​[t(v)]=∫0vˉ​t(v)f(v)dv, and the optimal revenue under ε\varepsilonε-IC is

Π⋆(M(ε))=sup⁡m∈M(ε)Π(m).\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(\varepsilon))=\sup_{m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon)}\Pi(m).Π⋆(M(ε))=m∈M(ε)sup​Π(m).

The quantity of interest is the revenue gain Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(\varepsilon))-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0)).

In the Lean development the model is ApproxIC.Rounding.Model (fields vbar, f) with the predicate Model.Standing; mechanisms are Mech (fields x, t); the sets and values are Mset M ε, revenue M m and optRev M ε.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 15)

Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=O(ε1/2),\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(\varepsilon))-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))=\mathcal O(\varepsilon^{1/2}),Π⋆(M(ε))−Π⋆(M(0))=O(ε1/2),

in the paper's notation (p. 13): there are C>0C>0C>0 and ε0>0\varepsilon_0>0ε0​>0, which may depend on the distribution, such that for every ε∈(0,ε0]\varepsilon\in(0,\varepsilon_0]ε∈(0,ε0​] and every m∈M(ε)m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon)m∈M(ε),

Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤Cε.\Pi(m)-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))\le C\sqrt\varepsilon .Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤Cε​.

Milestones (Appendix A, proof of Proposition 1, p. 38)

Fix m=(x,t)∈M(ε)m=(x,t)\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon)m=(x,t)∈M(ε) and δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1), and let vδ⋆(v)∈arg⁡max⁡w∈S{v⋅x(w)−(1−δ)t(w)}v^\star_\delta(v)\in\arg\max_{w\in S}\{v\cdot x(w)-(1-\delta)t(w)\}vδ⋆​(v)∈argmaxw∈S​{v⋅x(w)−(1−δ)t(w)}.

  1. The rounded mechanism m~=(x(vδ⋆(⋅)),(1−δ)t(vδ⋆(⋅)))\tilde m=(x(v^\star_\delta(\cdot)),(1-\delta)t(v^\star_\delta(\cdot)))m~=(x(vδ⋆​(⋅)),(1−δ)t(vδ⋆​(⋅))) lies in M(0)\mathcal M(0)M(0).
  2. For v′=vδ⋆(v)v'=v^\star_\delta(v)v′=vδ⋆​(v): t(v′)≥t(v)−ε/δt(v')\ge t(v)-\varepsilon/\deltat(v′)≥t(v)−ε/δ.
  3. The non-asymptotic bound
Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤δ1−δΠ⋆(M(0))+εδ≤2δ Π⋆(M(0))+εδ(δ≤1/2).\Pi(m)-\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))\le\frac{\delta}{1-\delta}\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+\frac{\varepsilon}{\delta}\le 2\delta\,\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))+\frac{\varepsilon}{\delta}\qquad(\delta\le 1/2).Π(m)−Π⋆(M(0))≤1−δδ​Π⋆(M(0))+δε​≤2δΠ⋆(M(0))+δε​(δ≤1/2).

Significance

The result. Proposition 1 gives a distribution-free shape for the value of relaxing incentive compatibility: an ε\varepsilonε-optimizing buyer can be exploited for at most order ε\sqrt\varepsilonε​ extra revenue. It is the starting point against which the paper measures its main contributions: an instance-dependent upper bound of order O~(εα/(2α−1))\tilde{\mathcal O}(\varepsilon^{\alpha/(2\alpha-1)})O~(εα/(2α−1)) (Theorem 1) and a matching lower bound (Theorem 3) for distributions whose revenue curve has local α\alphaα-power envelopes around the optimal price, and the Θ(ε)\Theta(\varepsilon)Θ(ε) rate for deterministic mechanisms (Theorem 2). Since α/(2α−1)>1/2\alpha/(2\alpha-1)>1/2α/(2α−1)>1/2 for every α>1\alpha>1α>1, these show that the ε\sqrt\varepsilonε​ benchmark is not tight for such distributions. The rounding step itself (milestone 1) is the standard device for converting approximately incentive compatible mechanisms into exactly incentive compatible ones, and is reused across mechanism design.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a formal single-buyer model with ε\varepsilonε-IC mechanisms that the other missions of the series share, and a formal version of Nisan's rounding argument for a continuum of types.

Difficulty

The paper's proof is short, but it is written for an argmax that is attained and a rounded mechanism that is tacitly measurable. In a formal treatment, the selection vδ⋆v^\star_\deltavδ⋆​ must be chosen so that m~\tilde mm~ is measurable and its expected payment is defined. Exact incentive compatibility forces x~\tilde xx~ to be nondecreasing on SSS, and that monotonicity has to be established and then turned into measurability. The revenue comparison Ev[t~(v)]≥(1−δ)(Ev[t(v)]−ε/δ)\mathbb E_v[\tilde t(v)]\ge(1-\delta)(\mathbb E_v[t(v)]-\varepsilon/\delta)Ev​[t~(v)]≥(1−δ)(Ev​[t(v)]−ε/δ) needs the integrability of t⋅ft\cdot ft⋅f, which comes from IR and ICε_\varepsilonε​ bounding ttt on SSS, not from an assumption. The milestone-3 bound carries no attainment hypothesis, so a proof must also handle the case in which the maximum over SSS is not attained. Finally, Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) is a supremum, and its nonnegativity (used in δ/(1−δ)≤2δ\delta/(1-\delta)\le 2\deltaδ/(1−δ)≤2δ) and its finiteness must be derived from the feasible set.

Formalization scope

  • Values, allocations and payments are total functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; every condition quantifies over S=[0,vˉ]S=[0,\bar v]S=[0,vˉ] only, and the revenue integral is over [0,vˉ][0,\bar v][0,vˉ].
  • Standing assumptions (the density half of the paper's Assumption 1): vˉ>0\bar v>0vˉ>0, f≥0f\ge 0f≥0, f=0f=0f=0 off [0,vˉ][0,\bar v][0,vˉ], fff integrable on [0,vˉ][0,\bar v][0,vˉ] with integral 111. The bounded-variation half of Assumption 1 is not used by Proposition 1 and is not assumed.
  • Added hypothesis: mechanisms in M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε) have measurable xxx and ttt, so that Ev[t(v)]\mathbb E_v[t(v)]Ev​[t(v)] is meaningful.
  • Π⋆\Pi^\starΠ⋆ is the supremum (sSup) of the revenue image of M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε), which is nonempty (the zero mechanism) and bounded above by vˉ\bar vvˉ; the goal and milestone 3 are stated for every m∈M(ε)m\in\mathcal M(\varepsilon)m∈M(ε), which is equivalent to the bound on the supremum. Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) is never replaced by the posted-price revenue.
  • ε1/2\varepsilon^{1/2}ε1/2 is Real.sqrt ε. The constants CCC and ε0\varepsilon_0ε0​ are quantified after the distribution and before ε\varepsilonε; quantifying them after ε\varepsilonε would make the goal trivial.
  • Milestones 1 and 2 take the argmax selection vδ⋆v^\star_\deltavδ⋆​ as a map vs with values in SSS attaining the maximum, as the page assumes. The rounded mechanism is set to 000 off SSS; its measurability is part of the conclusion, not a hypothesis.
  • Restricting M(ε)\mathcal M(\varepsilon)M(ε) to deterministic mechanisms, to nonnegative payments, or defining Π⋆(M(0))\Pi^\star(\mathcal M(0))Π⋆(M(0)) by the optimal posted-price revenue would change the statement and is ruled out.

Needed infrastructure: monotone functions are measurable, interval integrals of bounded measurable functions against an integrable density, and suprema of bounded real sets, all in Mathlib. Contributions of the rounding lemma in reusable form (for general type sets) are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. R. Balseiro, O. Besbes, F. Castro, Mechanism Design under Approximate Incentive Compatibility, arXiv:2103.03403v2, 2022; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.03403
  • R. B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.6.1.58
  • M.-F. Balcan, A. Blum, J. D. Hartline, Y. Mansour, Mechanism Design via Machine Learning, 46th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS'05), pp. 605–614, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1109/SFCS.2005.50
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain II: Truthful Cheap Talk Is an Equilibrium Iff the Ownership Share β Is at Least β̳Research Paper

Motivation

A supplier who must build capacity before a selling season would like to know how large demand will be, and the retailer downstream often knows better. Under a simple wholesale-price contract, however, the retailer gains from overstating demand: more capacity means more sales for her, and the cost of idle capacity falls on the supplier. Since the retailer's message costs nothing and binds nobody, a rational supplier ignores it. That such cheap talk (Crawford and Sobel, 1982) cannot convey information in a one-shot wholesale-price relationship is the benchmark result of Özer, Zheng and Chen (2011), yet firms are observed to share forecasts informally.

Avinadav and Shamir propose an explanation based on partial vertical ownership (PVO): retailers often hold passive equity stakes in their suppliers. A retailer that owns a share β\betaβ of the supplier bears a fraction β\betaβ of the losses her misreport inflicts on him. Their Theorem 2 says exactly how large the stake must be for truthful reporting to be self-enforcing, and how this depends on the gap between the two possible demand levels. This mission formalizes that theorem.

Setting

A retailer sources a component from a supplier. The supplier secures capacity KKK at unit cost ccc; after demand is realized, the retailer orders and pays the wholesale price www per unit and sells at the retail price rrr, with 0<c<w<r0<c<w<r0<c<w<r. Unmet demand is lost, and leftover capacity is worthless.

Demand in market state i∈{L,H}i\in\{L,H\}i∈{L,H} is Di=μi+εD_i=\mu_i+\varepsilonDi​=μi​+ε with 0<μL<μH0<\mu_L<\mu_H0<μL​<μH​, where ε\varepsilonε is a zero-mean random variable with a density, distribution function FFF, and lower support end ε‾<0\underline{\varepsilon}<0ε​<0 satisfying μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L+\underline{\varepsilon}\ge0μL​+ε​≥0. The information gap is Δ=μH−μL\Delta=\mu_H-\mu_LΔ=μH​−μL​. Write F−1(z)=inf⁡{x:F(x)≥z}F^{-1}(z)=\inf\{x: F(x)\ge z\}F−1(z)=inf{x:F(x)≥z} and define the critical fractiles zs=1−c/wz_s=1-c/wzs​=1−c/w and zr=1−w/rz_r=1-w/rzr​=1−w/r.

The retailer may commit to an advance order qadvq^{adv}qadv which the supplier must cover. The supplier's and retailer's expected profits are

πs(K∣μi,qadv)=E[wmin⁡(K,max⁡(μi+ε,qadv))−cK],\pi_s(K\mid\mu_i,q^{adv})=\mathbb E\big[w\min(K,\max(\mu_i+\varepsilon,q^{adv}))-cK\big],πs​(K∣μi​,qadv)=E[wmin(K,max(μi​+ε,qadv))−cK], πr(qadv,K∣μi)=E[(r−w)min⁡(μi+ε,K)−wmax⁡(qadv−μi−ε,0)].\pi_r(q^{adv},K\mid\mu_i)=\mathbb E\big[(r-w)\min(\mu_i+\varepsilon,K)-w\max(q^{adv}-\mu_i-\varepsilon,0)\big].πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=E[(r−w)min(μi​+ε,K)−wmax(qadv−μi​−ε,0)].

A retailer holding the share β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] of the supplier maximizes the accounting payoff vr(qadv,K∣μi)=πr(qadv,K∣μi)+β πs(K∣μi,qadv)v_r(q^{adv},K\mid\mu_i)=\pi_r(q^{adv},K\mid\mu_i)+\beta\,\pi_s(K\mid\mu_i,q^{adv})vr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)+βπs​(K∣μi​,qadv).

Only the retailer observes the state. In the cheap-talk game she places no advance order and announces a state; a supplier who believes the announcement builds the newsvendor capacity KL=μL+F−1(zs)K_L=\mu_L+F^{-1}(z_s)KL​=μL​+F−1(zs​) or KH=μH+F−1(zs)K_H=\mu_H+F^{-1}(z_s)KH​=μH​+F−1(zs​). Truthful reporting requires

(12)vr(0,KH∣μH)≥vr(0,KL∣μH),(13)vr(0,KL∣μL)≥vr(0,KH∣μL).\text{(12)}\quad v_r(0,K_H\mid\mu_H)\ge v_r(0,K_L\mid\mu_H),\qquad\text{(13)}\quad v_r(0,K_L\mid\mu_L)\ge v_r(0,K_H\mid\mu_L).(12)vr​(0,KH​∣μH​)≥vr​(0,KL​∣μH​),(13)vr​(0,KL​∣μL​)≥vr​(0,KH​∣μL​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Let

β‾‾=πr(0,KH∣μL)−πr(0,KL∣μL)πs(KL∣μL,0)−πs(KH∣μL,0),R(d)=1d∫F−1(zs)d+F−1(zs)F(x) dx(d>0).\underline{\underline{\beta}}=\frac{\pi_r(0,K_H\mid\mu_L)-\pi_r(0,K_L\mid\mu_L)}{\pi_s(K_L\mid\mu_L,0)-\pi_s(K_H\mid\mu_L,0)},\qquad R(d)=\frac1d\int_{F^{-1}(z_s)}^{d+F^{-1}(z_s)}F(x)\,dx\quad(d>0).β​​=πs​(KL​∣μL​,0)−πs​(KH​∣μL​,0)πr​(0,KH​∣μL​)−πr​(0,KL​∣μL​)​,R(d)=d1​∫F−1(zs​)d+F−1(zs​)​F(x)dx(d>0).

The goal asserts: (12) holds for every β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1]; for every β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], (12) and (13) hold if and only if β≥β‾‾\beta\ge\underline{\underline{\beta}}β≥β​​;

β‾‾=zr1−zr(1−zsR(Δ)−zs−1),R(Δ)<1;\underline{\underline{\beta}}=\frac{z_r}{1-z_r}\left(\frac{1-z_s}{R(\Delta)-z_s}-1\right),\qquad R(\Delta)<1;β​​=1−zr​zr​​(R(Δ)−zs​1−zs​​−1),R(Δ)<1;

and for every β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1] the equation R(d)=zs+1−zs1+β(1/zr−1)R(d)=z_s+\frac{1-z_s}{1+\beta(1/z_r-1)}R(d)=zs​+1+β(1/zr​−1)1−zs​​ has a unique root Δ‾‾>0\underline{\underline{\Delta}}>0Δ​​>0, and truthful cheap talk is possible only if Δ≥Δ‾‾\Delta\ge\underline{\underline{\Delta}}Δ≥Δ​​.

Milestones

In attack order: the closed forms (2) and (3) of the expected profits; condition (12) always holds; (E.1), that (13) is equivalent to β≥β‾‾\beta\ge\underline{\underline{\beta}}β≥β​​ with positive numerator and denominator; (E.2), the closed form of β‾‾\underline{\underline{\beta}}β​​; and the properties of RRR (strictly increasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), limits zsz_szs​ at 0+0^+0+ and 111 at ∞\infty∞, values in (zs,1)(z_s,1)(zs​,1)). A companion item states Proposition 1: β‾‾<1\underline{\underline{\beta}}<1β​​<1 if and only if the integrated chain earns less with KHK_HKH​ than with KLK_LKL​ in the low state.

Significance

Theorem 2 identifies an ownership channel through which a one-shot wholesale-price relationship can sustain truthful information exchange, in contrast with the impossibility of cheap talk without such links. The threshold β‾‾\underline{\underline{\beta}}β​​ is the ratio of the low-type retailer's operational gain from lying to the supplier's loss from being misled, and part (ii) turns it into a lower bound on the information gap: a sufficiently small gap rules out cheap talk for every stake. Proposition 1 translates feasibility (β‾‾<1\underline{\underline{\beta}}<1β​​<1) into a comparison of the integrated chain's profits. The same comparisons underlie the paper's later analysis of signaling with advance orders, which takes cheap talk as its benchmark.

The result is proved in the source, in Appendix E of the authors' manuscript; it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a formal statement in which every profit is an expectation over a general noise distribution, so that the closed forms the paper derives become theorems rather than definitions, together with the supporting analysis of the averaged distribution function RRR.

Difficulty

The algebra after the closed forms is short. The work lies in two places. First, the closed forms (2) and (3) are integration-by-parts identities for expectations of truncated linear functions of ε\varepsilonε, under a general law rather than a density on a compact interval, including the case of an upper support end at +∞+\infty+∞. Second, the properties of RRR: the paper differentiates RRR and applies L'Hôpital's rule, which presumes more regularity than the standing assumptions give; positivity of the numerator and denominator of β‾‾\underline{\underline{\beta}}β​​, the strict bounds zs<R<1z_s<R<1zs​<R<1, and the existence and uniqueness of Δ‾‾\underline{\underline{\Delta}}Δ​​ all rest on continuity and strict increase of FFF near F−1(zs)F^{-1}(z_s)F−1(zs​). The case β=0\beta=0β=0 in part (ii) is degenerate: the argument of R−1R^{-1}R−1 is then 111, which RRR never attains.

Formalization scope

The source is the authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06; theorem numbers, equation numbers and pages are the manuscript's. The model is a structure with real fields c,w,r,μL,μH,ε‾c,w,r,\mu_L,\mu_H,\underline{\varepsilon}c,w,r,μL​,μH​,ε​ and a measure PPP on R\mathbb RR (the law of ε\varepsilonε), with F=F=F= cdf P. Every theorem assumes the standing hypotheses:

  • PPP is a probability measure, absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure;
  • ε\varepsilonε is integrable with mean zero (integrability is implicit in "zero-mean");
  • ε‾<0\underline{\varepsilon}<0ε​<0, F(ε‾)=0F(\underline{\varepsilon})=0F(ε​)=0, and FFF is strictly increasing on {x≥ε‾:F(x)<1}\{x\ge\underline{\varepsilon}:F(x)<1\}{x≥ε​:F(x)<1} (added: the paper uses F−1F^{-1}F−1 as an inverse);
  • 0<μL<μH0<\mu_L<\mu_H0<μL​<μH​, μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L+\underline{\varepsilon}\ge0μL​+ε​≥0, and c<w<rc<w<rc<w<r together with the added c>0c>0c>0.

The profits πs,πr,vr\pi_s,\pi_r,v_rπs​,πr​,vr​ are Bochner integrals against PPP, β‾‾\underline{\underline{\beta}}β​​ is the plain quotient of profit differences (the first expression of (14)), and conditions (12)–(13) are the payoff comparisons themselves. Defining any of these by the paper's closed forms would make the milestones definitional and is ruled out. RRR is used only at d>0d>0d>0; Δ‾‾\underline{\underline{\Delta}}Δ​​ is characterized as the unique positive root rather than through a junk inverse, and part (ii) is stated for β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1]. The supply-chain profit πsc\pi_{sc}πsc​ is taken at advance order 000, as in the proof of Proposition 1. The prior over market states and the signaling and pooling equilibria (Theorems 3–4) are outside this mission.

Mathlib provides distribution functions, Bochner and interval integrals and limits. A complete development needs layer-cake identities for E[min⁡(K,⋅)]\mathbb E[\min(K,\cdot)]E[min(K,⋅)] and E[(⋅)+]\mathbb E[(\cdot)^+]E[(⋅)+] in terms of ∫F\int F∫F, continuity of the CDF of an absolutely continuous law, and the monotonicity and limits of interval averages of a monotone function; these are reusable well beyond this model. Proofs of any milestone, or of general lemmas they need, are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Avinadav and N. Shamir, Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain, Management Science, 2023 (authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4673
  • V. P. Crawford and J. Sobel, Strategic Information Transmission, Econometrica 50(6), 1982. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913390
  • Ö. Özer, Y. Zheng and K.-Y. Chen, Trust in Forecast Information Sharing, Management Science 57(6), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1348
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EconomicsOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain I: Under Complete Information the Retailer Finances the Entire Capacity Iff β ≥ β̲, and β̲ < 1Research Paper

Motivation

Firms in a supply chain often hold equity in one another. A retailer may own a minority stake in a supplier without controlling it: the stake is passive, but it changes what the retailer cares about, because part of the supplier's profit now accrues to her. Avinadav and Shamir (Management Science, 2023) study how such partial vertical ownership (PVO) affects two classic frictions of decentralized supply chains: the supplier's under-investment in capacity, and the retailer's incentive to distort the demand information she shares. This mission formalizes the paper's benchmark result, Theorem 1, which settles the capacity question when both firms know the market state. It is the reference point against which the paper measures every asymmetric-information equilibrium, and a companion mission treats the paper's cheap-talk result (Theorem 2).

The question belongs to the literature on capacity investment with advance orders and on cross-ownership in vertical relations; the paper's Sections 1–2 survey it. The result itself is a threshold statement of a familiar newsvendor type, but in a model where the decision maker's objective mixes her own operating profit with a fraction of her supplier's.

Setting

A supplier builds a capacity KKK at unit cost ccc before the selling season. After demand DDD is realized, the retailer orders min⁡(K,max⁡(qadv,D))\min(K, \max(q^{adv}, D))min(K,max(qadv,D)) at the wholesale price www and sells at the retail price rrr, where r>w>cr > w > cr>w>c. Here qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0 is an advance order: a quantity the retailer commits to before the supplier builds capacity, and which the supplier must cover, K≥qadvK \ge q^{adv}K≥qadv. Unmet demand is lost and leftovers have no value.

Demand in market state i∈{L,H}i \in \{L, H\}i∈{L,H} is Di=μi+εD_i = \mu_i + \varepsilonDi​=μi​+ε with 0<μL<μH0 < \mu_L < \mu_H0<μL​<μH​, where the shock ε\varepsilonε has mean zero, cumulative distribution function FFF, a density, and support (ε‾,εˉ)(\underline\varepsilon, \bar\varepsilon)(ε​,εˉ) with μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L + \underline\varepsilon \ge 0μL​+ε​≥0. The expected profits are

πs(K∣μi,qadv)=E[wmin⁡(K,max⁡(μi+ε,qadv))−cK],\pi_s(K \mid \mu_i, q^{adv}) = \mathbb E\big[w\min(K, \max(\mu_i + \varepsilon, q^{adv})) - cK\big],πs​(K∣μi​,qadv)=E[wmin(K,max(μi​+ε,qadv))−cK], πr(qadv,K∣μi)=E[(r−w)min⁡(μi+ε,K)−wmax⁡(qadv−μi−ε,0)].\pi_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) = \mathbb E\big[(r - w)\min(\mu_i + \varepsilon, K) - w\max(q^{adv} - \mu_i - \varepsilon, 0)\big].πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=E[(r−w)min(μi​+ε,K)−wmax(qadv−μi​−ε,0)].

The retailer owns a share β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0, 1]β∈[0,1] of the supplier and maximizes the accounting payoff

vr(qadv,K∣μi)=πr(qadv,K∣μi)+β πs(K∣μi,qadv).v_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) = \pi_r(q^{adv}, K \mid \mu_i) + \beta\,\pi_s(K \mid \mu_i, q^{adv}).vr​(qadv,K∣μi​)=πr​(qadv,K∣μi​)+βπs​(K∣μi​,qadv).

The relevant critical fractiles are zs=1−c/wz_s = 1 - c/wzs​=1−c/w (supplier), zr=1−w/rz_r = 1 - w/rzr​=1−w/r (retailer without holdings) and

zr(β)=1−(1−zr)(1−βzs)=zr+βzs(1−zr).z_r(\beta) = 1 - (1 - z_r)(1 - \beta z_s) = z_r + \beta z_s (1 - z_r).zr​(β)=1−(1−zr​)(1−βzs​)=zr​+βzs​(1−zr​).

Under complete information both firms observe iii. The supplier answers qadvq^{adv}qadv with the capacity KiCI(qadv)K_i^{CI}(q^{adv})KiCI​(qadv), equal to μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​) if qadv≤μi+F−1(zs)q^{adv} \le \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)qadv≤μi​+F−1(zs​) and to qadvq^{adv}qadv otherwise (5). The retailer compares two options: order nothing and accept μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​), or order q∗∈arg⁡max⁡qvr(q,q∣μi)q^* \in \arg\max_{q} v_r(q, q \mid \mu_i)q∗∈argmaxq​vr​(q,q∣μi​) and finance the whole capacity (6)–(7).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

Let

β‾=min⁡{β∈[0,1]:zr(β)(F−1(zr(β))−F−1(zs))+(zr+β(1−zr))∫ε‾F−1(zs)F−∫ε‾F−1(zr(β))F≥0}.\underline\beta = \min\Big\{\beta \in [0,1] : z_r(\beta)\big(F^{-1}(z_r(\beta)) - F^{-1}(z_s)\big) + \big(z_r + \beta(1 - z_r)\big)\int_{\underline\varepsilon}^{F^{-1}(z_s)} F - \int_{\underline\varepsilon}^{F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))} F \ge 0\Big\}.β​=min{β∈[0,1]:zr​(β)(F−1(zr​(β))−F−1(zs​))+(zr​+β(1−zr​))∫ε​F−1(zs​)​F−∫ε​F−1(zr​(β))​F≥0}.

Then the minimum exists, β‾<1\underline\beta < 1β​<1, and for both market states

(qiCI,KiCI)={(0, μi+F−1(zs))β<β‾,(μi+F−1(zr(β)), μi+F−1(zr(β)))β≥β‾.\big(q_i^{CI}, K_i^{CI}\big) = \begin{cases} \big(0,\ \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)\big) & \beta < \underline\beta,\\ \big(\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta)),\ \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))\big) & \beta \ge \underline\beta. \end{cases}(qiCI​,KiCI​)={(0, μi​+F−1(zs​))(μi​+F−1(zr​(β)), μi​+F−1(zr​(β)))​β<β​,β≥β​.​

The formal goal adds that the order chosen by (7) maximizes qadv↦vr(qadv,KiCI(qadv)∣μi)q^{adv} \mapsto v_r(q^{adv}, K_i^{CI}(q^{adv}) \mid \mu_i)qadv↦vr​(qadv,KiCI​(qadv)∣μi​) over qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: the closed form (2) of πs\pi_sπs​; the optimality of (5); the closed form (4) of vrv_rvr​; the §4 observation that ordering a positive quantity up to μi+F−1(zs)\mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)μi​+F−1(zs​) is weakly dominated by ordering nothing; the closed form, concavity and unique maximizer q∗=μi+F−1(zr(β))q^* = \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))q∗=μi​+F−1(zr​(β)) of q↦vr(q,q∣μi)q \mapsto v_r(q, q \mid \mu_i)q↦vr​(q,q∣μi​) (Appendix E, p. 43); the identity between the payoff gain G(β)=1r(vr(q∗,q∗∣μi)−vr(0,μi+F−1(zs)∣μi))G(\beta) = \tfrac1r\big(v_r(q^*, q^* \mid \mu_i) - v_r(0, \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s) \mid \mu_i)\big)G(β)=r1​(vr​(q∗,q∗∣μi​)−vr​(0,μi​+F−1(zs​)∣μi​)) and the expression in (9) (pp. 43–44); and Lemma E1, the existence of a unique threshold β‾∈[0,1)\underline\beta \in [0,1)β​∈[0,1) with G(β)≥0  ⟺  β≥β‾G(\beta) \ge 0 \iff \beta \ge \underline\betaG(β)≥0⟺β≥β​ (p. 44).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that a large enough passive stake always makes the retailer finance the entire capacity, and that full ownership is never needed: β‾<1\underline\beta < 1β​<1 for every choice of prices, costs and demand law. The mechanism is visible in zr(β)z_r(\beta)zr​(β): each unit the retailer buys costs her effectively w−β(w−c)w - \beta(w - c)w−β(w−c), so her preferred capacity grows with β\betaβ, and from β‾\underline\betaβ​ on it is worth paying for. The theorem is also the benchmark for the rest of the paper: the cheap-talk, signaling and pooling equilibria of §§5–7 are compared with (qiCI,KiCI)(q_i^{CI}, K_i^{CI})(qiCI​,KiCI​), and the thresholds β‾\underline\betaβ​ and β‾‾\underline{\underline\beta}β​​ jointly delimit the paper's regimes.

The result is proved in the paper (Appendix E, pp. 42–44). It has not been formalized. A formal proof adds two things beyond confirmation. First, it settles a step the paper asserts without argument: that G(β)<0G(\beta) < 0G(β)<0 whenever zr(β)≤zsz_r(\beta) \le z_szr​(β)≤zs​, which is what forces q∗>μi+F−1(zs)q^* > \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)q∗>μi​+F−1(zs​) in the second case of (8). Second, it produces reusable lemmas about newsvendor-type expectations under a general demand law with a density: the layer-cake identities behind (2)–(4) and the unique maximization of qz−∫qFq z - \int^{q} Fqz−∫qF at a quantile.

Difficulty

The identities (2)–(4) are integration-by-parts computations, but they must be done for an arbitrary law with a density, with oriented interval integrals and without assuming bounded support. The concavity and the maximizer at F−1(zr(β))F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))F−1(zr​(β)) require that the quantile be a genuine inverse of FFF on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

The central difficulty is Lemma E1. The natural argument computes G′(β)G'(\beta)G′(β) and observes it is positive when zr(β)>zsz_r(\beta) > z_szr​(β)>zs​. That does not settle the sign of GGG on the complementary region, where the paper argues informally that the supplier "builds a higher capacity for free". The comparison in GGG, however, uses capacity q∗q^*q∗ even when q∗<μi+F−1(zs)q^* < \mu_i + F^{-1}(z_s)q∗<μi​+F−1(zs​), so that informal argument compares the wrong objects; a separate estimate is needed there. Differentiability of β↦F−1(zr(β))\beta \mapsto F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))β↦F−1(zr​(β)) is also not given: the density need not be continuous or positive at the quantile, so the monotonicity of GGG cannot simply be read off a derivative.

Formalization scope

The primitives c,w,r,μL,μHc, w, r, \mu_L, \mu_Hc,w,r,μL​,μH​, the law PPP of ε\varepsilonε and ε‾\underline\varepsilonε​ form a structure; FFF is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf P, and F−1(z)=inf⁡{x:F(x)≥z}F^{-1}(z) = \inf\{x : F(x) \ge z\}F−1(z)=inf{x:F(x)≥z}, applied only at levels in (0,1)(0, 1)(0,1). The payoffs πs,πr,vr\pi_s, \pi_r, v_rπs​,πr​,vr​ are defined as Bochner integrals of the realized profits; the closed forms are milestones, not definitions. The expression of (9) is defined as printed, because Theorem 1 defines β‾\underline\betaβ​ by it, and a milestone ties it to the payoff gain GGG, which is defined with its factor 1/r1/r1/r. The market state is quantified as μ∈{μL,μH}\mu \in \{\mu_L, \mu_H\}μ∈{μL​,μH​} and the share as β∈[0,1]\beta \in [0, 1]β∈[0,1].

The standing assumptions are those of §3: PPP is a probability measure, ε\varepsilonε has mean zero and a density, ε‾<0\underline\varepsilon < 0ε​<0 with F(ε‾)=0F(\underline\varepsilon) = 0F(ε​)=0, 0<μL<μH0 < \mu_L < \mu_H0<μL​<μH​, μL+ε‾≥0\mu_L + \underline\varepsilon \ge 0μL​+ε​≥0, and c<w<rc < w < rc<w<r. Three implicit assumptions are added and disclosed: c>0c > 0c>0 (otherwise zs=1z_s = 1zs​=1 and F−1(zs)F^{-1}(z_s)F−1(zs​) is not defined), integrability of ε\varepsilonε (presupposed by "zero mean"), and strict increase of FFF on the support {x≥ε‾:F(x)<1}\{x \ge \underline\varepsilon : F(x) < 1\}{x≥ε​:F(x)<1} (the paper uses F−1F^{-1}F−1 as an inverse). The advance order ranges over qadv≥0q^{adv} \ge 0qadv≥0, and K≥qadvK \ge q^{adv}K≥qadv is a hypothesis of (2) and (4).

Two trivializations are ruled out. Defining the profits by their closed forms would make the payoff milestones true by definition, so they are expectations. Replacing the rule (7) by "an arg max of q↦vr(q,KiCI(q)∣μi)q \mapsto v_r(q, K_i^{CI}(q) \mid \mu_i)q↦vr​(q,KiCI​(q)∣μi​)" would be ill-posed, because that maximizer is not unique (for β<1\beta < 1β<1 every order up to μi+ε‾\mu_i + \underline\varepsilonμi​+ε​ ties with 000); qCIq^{CI}qCI is the two-option rule as printed, and its optimality is a separate conclusion.

Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are general lemmas on expectations of min⁡/max⁡\min/\maxmin/max of a shifted random variable, on quantiles of continuous strictly increasing CDFs, and on the continuity of β↦F−1(zr(β))\beta \mapsto F^{-1}(z_r(\beta))β↦F−1(zr​(β)). The source is the authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06; its proofs are in Appendix E.

Selected references

  • T. Avinadav and N. Shamir, Partial Vertical Ownership, Capacity Investment, and Information Exchange in a Supply Chain, Management Science, 2023 (read as the authors' manuscript of 2022-06-06; Theorem 1 on p. 11, proof on pp. 42–44). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4673
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 11, 2003 (the newsvendor and wholesale-price contract background). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamical SystemsEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces II: Without Subsidies a Utilization Shock u₀ Can Be Absorbed Exactly When u₀ ≥ M/J(C(M))Research Paper

Motivation

In 2018 New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission adopted a minimum earnings rule for ride-hailing drivers: each platform must pay drivers, per hour spent with a passenger, at least a target hourly earnings level divided by the platform's measured driver utilization in the previous period. The rule ties next period's wage floor to this period's idle time, so a platform that over-recruits drivers must raise wages. Asadpour, Lobel and van Ryzin (SSRN 3502607, published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022) model this rule as a dynamical system and ask when the regulated marketplace can stay stable, meaning wages stay bounded while the platform does not lose money.

Their main result (Theorem 1, a separate mission of this series) characterizes stability in a deterministic market. Real markets are hit by demand shocks: a sudden drop in ride requests lowers utilization in one period, and the rule then forces a high wage in the next. This mission formalizes the paper's answer (Theorem 2, §4.1) to whether a platform that may not subsidize rides can absorb such a one-time shock.

Setting

Time is discrete. In each period ttt the platform chooses a price pt≥0p_t \ge 0pt​≥0 per ride hour and a wage wt≥0w_t \ge 0wt​≥0 per ride hour. The demand D(p)D(p)D(p) is the number of ride hours requested at price ppp; the supply S(z)S(z)S(z) is the number of driver hours offered when drivers earn zzz per hour. Rides served are Q(p,z)=min⁡{D(p),S(z)}Q(p,z) = \min\{D(p), S(z)\}Q(p,z)=min{D(p),S(z)}, the utilization is u(p,z)=Q(p,z)/S(z)u(p,z) = Q(p,z)/S(z)u(p,z)=Q(p,z)/S(z), and drivers' hourly earnings ztz_tzt​ solve the equilibrium condition

zt=wt u(pt,zt).z_t = w_t \, u(p_t, z_t).zt​=wt​u(pt​,zt​).

A price, wage and earnings sequence satisfying this in every period is an equilibrium-augmented policy. The platform's profit is π(p,w,z)=(p−w) Q(p,z)\pi(p,w,z) = (p-w)\,Q(p,z)π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z). With target M>0M > 0M>0, the minimum earnings rule requires

wt+1≥Mu(pt,zt)in every period.w_{t+1} \ge \frac{M}{u(p_t, z_t)} \quad \text{in every period.}wt+1​≥u(pt​,zt​)M​in every period.

The revenue and cost functions are R(p)=p D(p)R(p) = p\,D(p)R(p)=pD(p) and C(z)=z S(z)C(z) = z\,S(z)C(z)=zS(z). The paper assumes DDD positive, strictly decreasing and continuous; SSS strictly increasing, continuous, and positive and differentiable away from 000; RRR unimodal with maximum at p∗p^*p∗; and demand and supply crossing at w∗w^*w∗, D(w∗)=S(w∗)D(w^*) = S(w^*)D(w∗)=S(w∗). HHH is the inverse of CCC, and JJJ is the inverse of RRR on its decreasing branch: J(r)=pJ(r) = pJ(r)=p iff p≥p∗p \ge p^*p≥p∗ and R(p)=rR(p) = rR(p)=r.

A shock lowers utilization to u0u_0u0​ in one period. A marketplace absorbs a u0u_0u0​ utilization shock (Definition 3) if some feasible equilibrium-augmented policy obeying the rule, with first post-shock wage w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​, has bounded wages and non-negative profit in every period.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

the marketplace absorbs a u0 utilization shock  ⟺  u0≥MJ(C(M)).\text{the marketplace absorbs a } u_0 \text{ utilization shock} \iff u_0 \ge \frac{M}{J(C(M))}.the marketplace absorbs a u0​ utilization shock⟺u0​≥J(C(M))M​.

The threshold is explicit in the model primitives; no constant is chosen by the formalization.

Milestones (the steps of the published proof, Online Appendix p. 5)

  1. If u0<M/J(C(M))u_0 < M/J(C(M))u0​<M/J(C(M)) and w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​, then M/H(R(w1))≥ϕ(M,u0)>1M/H(R(w_1)) \ge \phi(M,u_0) > 1M/H(R(w1​))≥ϕ(M,u0​)>1, where ϕ(M,u0)=M/H(R(M/u0))\phi(M,u_0) = M/H(R(M/u_0))ϕ(M,u0​)=M/H(R(M/u0​)).
  2. Along a policy with p=wp = wp=w after such a shock, wt+1≥ϕ(M,u0) wtw_{t+1} \ge \phi(M,u_0)\,w_twt+1​≥ϕ(M,u0​)wt​, hence wt≥ϕ(M,u0)t−1w1w_t \ge \phi(M,u_0)^{t-1} w_1wt​≥ϕ(M,u0​)t−1w1​.
  3. If u0≥M/J(C(M))u_0 \ge M/J(C(M))u0​≥M/J(C(M)), then at p=w=J(C(M))p = w = J(C(M))p=w=J(C(M)) and z=Mz = Mz=M: z/w=D(p)/S(z)=u(p,z)z/w = D(p)/S(z) = u(p,z)z/w=D(p)/S(z)=u(p,z), so z=Mz = Mz=M is an equilibrium.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 quantifies the fragility of a regulated marketplace whose platform cannot cross-subsidize: there is a sharp utilization level below which a single shock sends wages into unbounded growth, and above which the platform recovers immediately with a zero-profit stationary policy. Its threshold depends on the market only through the decreasing branch of revenue and the cost of paying MMM, which makes it a concrete design criterion for the target MMM: a regulator choosing MMM also chooses how deep a utilization drop the market can survive. The remark after the theorem (p. 14) relates it to the stability threshold of Theorem 1.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A formal proof must close points the published argument leaves implicit: the reduction to p=wp = wp=w policies (the paper's Lemma 3, posed in mission I) must hold in the all-periods form used here; the wage recursion of Lemma 4 needs wages above w∗w^*w∗, which the proof does not check; and the sufficiency policy needs J(C(M))≥MJ(C(M)) \ge MJ(C(M))≥M, which holds only because utilizations are at most one. The mission also gives the platform a second, independent use of the shared marketplace model.

Difficulty

The sufficiency direction is a direct check of one stationary policy. The necessity direction is where the work lies. The natural attempt, to argue that a high first wage simply cannot be paid without loss, fails: profit only requires pt≥wtp_t \ge w_tpt​≥wt​, and a platform may raise its price along with the wage. The obstruction is dynamic. Raising the price above J(C(M))J(C(M))J(C(M)) lowers revenue below the cost of supplying earnings MMM, so equilibrium earnings fall below MMM, utilization falls, and the rule raises the next wage by a factor bounded away from one. Turning this into a proof requires controlling arbitrary policies with pt≥wtp_t \ge w_tpt​≥wt​, not just the convenient p=wp = wp=w, and carrying an induction hypothesis (wages stay above M/u0M/u_0M/u0​) that the paper does not state.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in namespace MinEarnings.Shock. Demand and supply are functions D S : ℝ → ℝ; all regularity is required on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and "differentiable" is read as differentiable on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), which is all the argument uses. "RRR unimodal with maximum at p∗p^*p∗" is strict increase on [0,p∗][0,p^*][0,p∗] and strict decrease on [p∗,∞)[p^*,\infty)[p∗,∞). The points p∗p^*p∗, w∗w^*w∗ and the inverse cost HHH are parameters carrying their defining properties. Time is 0-based: Lean's period 000 is the paper's period 111, so the shock constraint w1≥M/u0w_1 \ge M/u_0w1​≥M/u0​ is a bound on Lean's first wage and the rule constrains every later wage. Bounded wages means ∃B ∀t, wt≤B\exists B\ \forall t,\ w_t \le B∃B ∀t, wt​≤B, and profit is non-negative in every period.

Three conventions are pinned and disclosed in every statement:

  • J(C(M))J(C(M))J(C(M)) is not defined as a function. It is passed as a price qqq with q≥p∗q \ge p^*q≥p∗ and R(q)=C(M)R(q) = C(M)R(q)=C(M), which determines it uniquely. The paper's JJJ is defined on (0,R(p∗)](0, R(p^*)](0,R(p∗)], which presumes R(p)→0R(p) \to 0R(p)→0, an assumption the paper does not make.
  • The shock utilization satisfies 0<u0≤10 < u_0 \le 10<u0​≤1. Without u0≤1u_0 \le 1u0​≤1, which Definition 3 leaves implicit, the sufficiency direction fails when p∗≤w∗<Mp^* \le w^* < Mp∗≤w∗<M.
  • Equilibrium earnings are positive, zt>0z_t > 0zt​>0. Lean defines 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0, so a zero-earnings "equilibrium" with S(0)=0S(0) = 0S(0)=0 would have utilization 000 and turn the rule into M/0=0≤wt+1M/0 = 0 \le w_{t+1}M/0=0≤wt+1​; the positivity requirement rules out this trivializing reading, and the requirement that wages be bounded uniformly rules out a vacuous reading of stability.

The development needs only Mathlib's real analysis: monotonicity on intervals, inverse functions on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), and geometric growth of sequences. The setting file is shared, up to namespace, with the other two missions of the series. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of the all-periods reduction to p=wp = wp=w policies, and a general lemma that a sequence with wt+1≥ϕwtw_{t+1} \ge \phi w_twt+1​≥ϕwt​, ϕ>1\phi > 1ϕ>1, w0>0w_0 > 0w0​>0 is unbounded.

Selected references

  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, SSRN 3502607 (version of August 24, 2022); Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3502607 · https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1150
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Dynamical SystemsEconomicsOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces III: A Minimum Earnings Marketplace Is Dynamically Stable Exactly When It Is Statically StableResearch Paper

Utilization-based minimum earnings rules

In 2018 New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission (TLC) imposed a minimum pay formula on the largest ride-hailing platforms, following a proposal by Parrott and Reich (2018): the pay per minute and per mile driven is divided by the platform's utilization rate, the fraction of drivers' working time spent carrying passengers. Seattle adopted a similar rule in 2020. The rule targets drivers' hourly earnings while leaving them free to choose when and how much to work. Because utilization is only observed after the fact, the regulation computes the floor for the next measurement period (six months in New York) from the utilization of the current one.

Asadpour, Lobel and van Ryzin (2022) model this rule as a dynamic system and ask when a platform can comply with it while keeping wages bounded and profits non-negative. This mission formalizes their Theorem 3: the lag in the rule does not matter for stability, because the dynamic system is stable exactly when a single static system of equations has a solution. Two companion missions of the series formalize Theorem 1 (the threshold z∗z^*z∗ on stable earnings targets) and Theorem 2 (absorption of a utilization shock).

Setting

Time is discrete. In period ttt the platform charges riders a price pt≥0p_t \ge 0pt​≥0 per hour of driving and pays drivers a wage wt≥0w_t \ge 0wt​≥0 per hour of driving riders. A demand function DDD gives the ride hours demanded at price ppp, and a supply function SSS gives the driver hours offered at expected hourly earnings zzz. The regularity assumptions are that DDD is positive, strictly decreasing and continuous, and SSS is strictly increasing, continuous, and positive and differentiable away from zero. The ride hours produced, the utilization and the platform's profit are

Q(p,z)=min⁡{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=Q(p,z)S(z),π(p,w,z)=(p−w) Q(p,z).Q(p,z)=\min\{D(p),S(z)\},\qquad u(p,z)=\frac{Q(p,z)}{S(z)},\qquad \pi(p,w,z)=(p-w)\,Q(p,z).Q(p,z)=min{D(p),S(z)},u(p,z)=S(z)Q(p,z)​,π(p,w,z)=(p−w)Q(p,z).

Drivers earn wtw_twt​ only while busy, so earnings satisfy the equilibrium condition zt=wt u(pt,zt)z_t = w_t\,u(p_t,z_t)zt​=wt​u(pt​,zt​). The minimum earnings rule with target M>0M>0M>0 is

wt+1 ≥ Mu(pt,zt)for every period t.w_{t+1}\ \ge\ \frac{M}{u(p_t,z_t)}\qquad\text{for every period } t.wt+1​ ≥ u(pt​,zt​)M​for every period t.

The MMM-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable if some policy (pt,wt,zt)(p_t,w_t,z_t)(pt​,wt​,zt​) that is feasible, satisfies the equilibrium condition and obeys the rule has a bounded wage sequence and π(pt,wt,zt)≥0\pi(p_t,w_t,z_t)\ge 0π(pt​,wt​,zt​)≥0 in all but finitely many periods. It is statically stable if there are p,w,z≥0p,w,z\ge 0p,w,z≥0 and u∈(0,1]u\in(0,1]u∈(0,1] with

u=Q(p,z)S(z),z=w u,w≥Mu,p≥w.(8)u=\frac{Q(p,z)}{S(z)},\qquad z=w\,u,\qquad w\ge\frac{M}{u},\qquad p\ge w. \tag{8}u=S(z)Q(p,z)​,z=wu,w≥uM​,p≥w.(8)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

the M-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable  ⟺  it is statically stable.\text{the } M\text{-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable}\iff\text{it is statically stable}.the M-minimum-earnings marketplace is stable⟺it is statically stable.

The statement carries only the regularity assumptions on DDD and SSS and M>0M>0M>0.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof in the Online Appendix.

  1. A statically stable marketplace is stable.
  2. Along a policy with pt=wtp_t = w_tpt​=wt​ that satisfies the equilibrium condition and the rule, if ut+1≥utu_{t+1}\ge u_tut+1​≥ut​ for some ttt, the marketplace is statically stable.
  3. Along the same kind of policy, if wt≥M/utw_t\ge M/u_twt​≥M/ut​ for some ttt, the marketplace is statically stable.
  4. If neither case occurs and wages are bounded, then wt→ww_t\to wwt​→w and ut→uu_t\to uut​→u, and the limits satisfy 0<u≤10<u\le 10<u≤1, w≥M/uw\ge M/uw≥M/u and u=Q(w,wu)/S(wu)u = Q(w,wu)/S(wu)u=Q(w,wu)/S(wu).

Significance

Theorem 3 reduces a question about infinite sequences to a question about one system of four relations in four unknowns. The paper uses it to give a second proof of its threshold theorem, and it shows that the lag in the regulation cannot be blamed for instability: every earnings target that a real-time rule could sustain can also be sustained under the lagged rule, and conversely. This gives regulators and platforms a criterion that can be checked by solving equations rather than by simulating policies.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version of it or of the paper's other results exists. Formalizing it checks the passage to the limit in the dynamic-to-static direction, where the paper leaves one step implicit (the positivity of the limiting utilization), and it provides a Lean model of the regulated marketplace that the other two missions of the series share.

Difficulty

The static-to-dynamic direction is immediate. In the other direction, a stable policy is a sequence, and a solution of (8) is a single point. Fixing one period of a stable policy does not give such a point: the rule compares wt+1w_{t+1}wt+1​ with utu_tut​, while (8) compares www with the utilization of the same point. A solution has to be extracted either from a period where the comparison happens to go the right way or from a limit. The limit is delicate because the utilization Q(p,z)/S(z)Q(p,z)/S(z)Q(p,z)/S(z) is a ratio, and a limit with u=0u = 0u=0 would not solve (8). The positivity of the limiting utilization has to come from the rule and the bound on wages together. The reduction to policies with pt=wtp_t = w_tpt​=wt​ (Lemma 3 of the paper) also has to be carried out on the policy before the case analysis can start; that lemma is posed as a milestone of the first mission of this series and is not repeated here.

Formalization scope

Prices, wages and earnings are real numbers, and D,S:R→RD, S : \mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}D,S:R→R are constrained on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). A policy is a triple of sequences indexed by N\mathbb{N}N starting at 000, so Lean's period ttt is the paper's period t+1t+1t+1, and the rule constrains every wage except the first. "Bounded" is an upper bound on the wages, which are non-negative; "all but finitely many periods" is an eventually-along-atTop statement. "Differentiable" is read as differentiability on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞) together with continuity on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

The equilibrium condition requires zt>0z_t>0zt​>0. Without it the encoding is trivial: if S(0)=0S(0)=0S(0)=0, which the assumptions allow, Lean evaluates u(p,0)=0/0u(p,0)=0/0u(p,0)=0/0 as 000, the rule becomes 0≤wt+10\le w_{t+1}0≤wt+1​, and every target MMM would count as stable. For the same reason Definition 4's u∈(0,1]u\in(0,1]u∈(0,1] is kept with its strict lower bound. The paper's standing assumptions that the revenue pD(p)pD(p)pD(p) is unimodal and that DDD and SSS cross are not used by Theorem 3 or its proof and are not assumed, so the formal statements are slightly more general than the paper's.

A complete development needs basic real analysis from Mathlib (monotone convergence, continuity of DDD, SSS and min⁡\minmin, limits of quotients) and the equilibrium construction behind Lemma 3, which uses the inverse of the cost function C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z)C(z)=zS(z). That construction is reusable across the series. Proofs of the milestones, of the p=wp=wp=w reduction, and of the goal are all welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, SSRN 3502607 (version of August 24, 2022); Theorem 3 on p. 15, proof in Online Appendix pp. 5–6. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3502607
  • A. Asadpour, I. Lobel, G. van Ryzin, Minimum Earnings Regulation and the Stability of Marketplaces, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1150
  • J. A. Parrott, M. Reich, An Earnings Standard for New York City's App-based Drivers: Economic Analysis and Policy Assessment, report for the New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, 2018 (cited in the paper as Parrott and Reich [2018]).
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement II: The Bellman Solution in Closed Form Between Consecutive Engagement ThresholdsResearch Paper

Motivation

Non-profit organizations such as food banks run on volunteer labour. Volunteers sign up for shifts, wait on a sign-up list, work, rest, and may or may not return; the organization can spend money on engagement activities (reminders, recognition events, recruitment drives) that raise the rate at which volunteers come back or arrive. Spending too little leaves shifts unstaffed; spending too much wastes a scarce budget. Ata, Tongarlak, Lee and Field (arXiv:2312.02920, Operations Research, 2024) model this as a multiclass queueing network, pass to a heavy-traffic limit, and obtain a one-dimensional drift-rate control problem: a reflected diffusion for the scaled workload whose drift is chosen, at a cost, from an interval of feasible drifts. The optimal policy they derive is a nested threshold policy: as the workload falls below successive thresholds τ1>τ2>⋯>τL\tau_1>\tau_2>\dots>\tau_Lτ1​>τ2​>⋯>τL​, one more engagement activity is switched on.

To compute that policy one needs the thresholds, and the paper obtains them from a closed-form description of the solution of the Bellman equation between consecutive thresholds. That closed form, Proposition 3 of the paper, is the goal of this mission. A companion mission formalizes Theorem 1, the existence of a solution of the same Bellman equation.

Setting

There are L≥1L\ge1L≥1 engagement activities. The data are a lowest drift θ0<0\theta_0<0θ0​<0, drift increments η1,…,ηL>0\eta_1,\dots,\eta_L>0η1​,…,ηL​>0, per-unit-drift costs 0<c1<c2<⋯<cL<p0<c_1<c_2<\dots<c_L<p0<c1​<c2​<⋯<cL​<p, an idleness cost rate ppp, a mean-reversion rate κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 and a volatility σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. The breakpoints are

θl=θ0+∑i=1lηi,l=0,…,L,\theta_l=\theta_0+\sum_{i=1}^{l}\eta_i,\qquad l=0,\dots,L,θl​=θ0​+i=1∑l​ηi​,l=0,…,L,

and the feasible drifts form the interval A=[θ0,θL]A=[\theta_0,\theta_L]A=[θ0​,θL​]. The engagement cost c:A→R+c:A\to\mathbb R_+c:A→R+​ is the convex, increasing, piecewise linear function with c(θ0)=0c(\theta_0)=0c(θ0​)=0 and slope clc_lcl​ on (θl−1,θl](\theta_{l-1},\theta_l](θl−1​,θl​]:

c(x)=∑i=1l−1ciηi+cl(x−θl−1),θl−1<x≤θl.c(x)=\sum_{i=1}^{l-1}c_i\eta_i+c_l(x-\theta_{l-1}),\qquad \theta_{l-1}<x\le\theta_l .c(x)=i=1∑l−1​ci​ηi​+cl​(x−θl−1​),θl−1​<x≤θl​.

Its convex conjugate is

ϕ(y)=sup⁡x∈A{yx−c(x)},y∈R.\phi(y)=\sup_{x\in A}\{yx-c(x)\},\qquad y\in\mathbb R .ϕ(y)=x∈Asup​{yx−c(x)},y∈R.

The Bellman equation of the drift-rate control problem asks for a constant β>0\beta>0β>0 and a continuously differentiable function vvv on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with

β=12σ2v′(x)+xκ (p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,\beta=\tfrac12\sigma^2v'(x)+x\kappa\,\big(p-v(x)\big)-\phi\big(p-v(x)\big),\qquad x\ge0,β=21​σ2v′(x)+xκ(p−v(x))−ϕ(p−v(x)),x≥0,

such that v(0)=0v(0)=0v(0)=0, vvv is strictly increasing, and v(x)→pv(x)\to pv(x)→p as x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞. Here β\betaβ is the optimal long-run average cost and v=g′v=g'v=g′ is the derivative of the transformed relative value function ggg of the paper's §4 (p. 20).

Put c^l=cl\hat c_l=c_lc^l​=cl​ for l=1,…,Ll=1,\dots,Ll=1,…,L and c^L+1=p\hat c_{L+1}=pc^L+1​=p. Since vvv is strictly increasing from 000 towards ppp, each level p−c^l∈(0,p)p-\hat c_l\in(0,p)p−c^l​∈(0,p) is attained exactly once; the thresholds are

τl=v−1(p−c^l),l=1,…,L,τL+1=0,τ0=∞.\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l),\quad l=1,\dots,L,\qquad \tau_{L+1}=0,\qquad \tau_0=\infty .τl​=v−1(p−c^l​),l=1,…,L,τL+1​=0,τ0​=∞.

With Φ\PhiΦ the standard normal cumulative distribution function, the paper defines for l=1,…,L+1l=1,\dots,L+1l=1,…,L+1

ul(x)=p−c^lexp⁡{−2θl−1(x−τl)+κ(x2−τl2)σ2}+2(β−c(θl−1))πσκexp⁡{(κx−θl−1)2κσ2}[Φ(κx−θl−1σκ/2)−Φ(κτl−θl−1σκ/2)].u_l(x)=p-\hat c_l\exp\Big\{\tfrac{-2\theta_{l-1}(x-\tau_l)+\kappa(x^2-\tau_l^2)}{\sigma^2}\Big\}+\tfrac{2(\beta-c(\theta_{l-1}))\sqrt\pi}{\sigma\sqrt\kappa}\exp\Big\{\tfrac{(\kappa x-\theta_{l-1})^2}{\kappa\sigma^2}\Big\}\Big[\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\kappa x-\theta_{l-1}}{\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2}}\Big)-\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\kappa\tau_l-\theta_{l-1}}{\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2}}\Big)\Big].ul​(x)=p−c^l​exp{σ2−2θl−1​(x−τl​)+κ(x2−τl2​)​}+σκ​2(β−c(θl−1​))π​​exp{κσ2(κx−θl−1​)2​}[Φ(σκ/2​κx−θl−1​​)−Φ(σκ/2​κτl​−θl−1​​)].

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 25)

For every solution (β,v)(\beta,v)(β,v) of the Bellman equation and every l=1,…,L+1l=1,\dots,L+1l=1,…,L+1,

v(x)=ul(x)for all x∈[τl,τl−1).v(x)=u_l(x)\qquad\text{for all }x\in[\tau_l,\tau_{l-1}).v(x)=ul​(x)for all x∈[τl​,τl−1​).

The statement fixes nothing beyond the model: it holds for any solution, with the thresholds defined from that solution.

Milestones

  1. (E9), Online Supplement p. 13: the conjugate is piecewise linear,
ϕ(y)=θ0y (y≤c1),ϕ(y)=θm−1y−c(θm−1) (cm−1<y≤cm),ϕ(y)=θLy−c(θL) (y>cL).\phi(y)=\theta_0y\ (y\le c_1),\qquad \phi(y)=\theta_{m-1}y-c(\theta_{m-1})\ (c_{m-1}<y\le c_m),\qquad \phi(y)=\theta_Ly-c(\theta_L)\ (y>c_L).ϕ(y)=θ0​y (y≤c1​),ϕ(y)=θm−1​y−c(θm−1​) (cm−1​<y≤cm​),ϕ(y)=θL​y−c(θL​) (y>cL​).
  1. Lemma 2(i), (D1), Online Supplement p. 9: for κ,σ>0\kappa,\sigma>0κ,σ>0,
∫τxe(2θz−κz2)/σ2 dz=σπκeθ2/(κσ2)[Φ(x−θ/κσ/2κ)−Φ(τ−θ/κσ/2κ)].\int_\tau^x e^{(2\theta z-\kappa z^2)/\sigma^2}\,dz=\frac{\sigma\sqrt\pi}{\sqrt\kappa}e^{\theta^2/(\kappa\sigma^2)}\Big[\Phi\Big(\tfrac{x-\theta/\kappa}{\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa}}\Big)-\Phi\Big(\tfrac{\tau-\theta/\kappa}{\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa}}\Big)\Big].∫τx​e(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz=κ​σπ​​eθ2/(κσ2)[Φ(σ/2κ​x−θ/κ​)−Φ(σ/2κ​τ−θ/κ​)].
  1. Lemma 2(ii), (D2), Online Supplement p. 9: the companion formula for ∫τxz e(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz\int_\tau^x z\,e^{(2\theta z-\kappa z^2)/\sigma^2}dz∫τx​ze(2θz−κz2)/σ2dz.

Significance

The result. Proposition 3 turns the nested threshold policy into something computable. Evaluating ulu_lul​ at the right end of its interval and inverting gives τl−1\tau_{l-1}τl−1​ from τl\tau_lτl​, so the thresholds τL,τL−1,…,τ1\tau_L,\tau_{L-1},\dots,\tau_1τL​,τL−1​,…,τ1​ follow by a one-dimensional recursion once β\betaβ is known. The paper's simulation study of a food bank (§5) uses these thresholds to set engagement policy. The result also shows that the value-function derivative, although defined through a nonlinear equation involving a supremum, is an explicit combination of Gaussian-type functions on each threshold interval.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (Online Supplement §D); no machine-checked version of it, of the conjugate formula (E9), or of the truncated Gaussian integrals (D1)–(D2) is known to exist. A formal proof checks the transcription of a long explicit formula with many constants, which is exactly where printed closed forms tend to go wrong, and produces reusable pieces: the conjugate of a convex piecewise linear function and two interval-integral identities for the normal cdf.

Difficulty

The Bellman equation is nonlinear in vvv through ϕ(p−v)\phi(p-v)ϕ(p−v). The obvious approach, solving it directly, fails because ϕ\phiϕ has no single formula. What makes it tractable is that on [τl,τl−1)[\tau_l,\tau_{l-1})[τl​,τl−1​) the argument p−v(x)p-v(x)p−v(x) stays in one linearity interval of ϕ\phiϕ; this is a property of the solution, derived from its monotonicity and the definition of the thresholds, not a hypothesis. A complete proof must therefore combine the piecewise description of a supremum, a uniqueness argument for a linear first-order equation on a half-open interval (with the one-sided derivative at the left end and, for l=1l=1l=1, an unbounded interval), and the evaluation of Gaussian integrals over finite intervals in terms of the normal cdf, matching every constant of the printed formula. The two expressions for the Φ\PhiΦ arguments, (κx−θ)/(σκ/2)(\kappa x-\theta)/(\sigma\sqrt{\kappa/2})(κx−θ)/(σκ/2​) in ulu_lul​ and (x−θ/κ)/(σ/2κ)(x-\theta/\kappa)/(\sigma/\sqrt{2\kappa})(x−θ/κ)/(σ/2κ​) in (D1)–(D2), are equal, but the identification must be made.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace VolunteerEngage.Thresholds, Lean 4 with Mathlib.

  • The parameters form a structure Model; η\etaη and ccc are N\mathbb NN-indexed sequences of which the indices 1,…,L1,\dots,L1,…,L are used. The standing assumptions (L≥1L\ge1L≥1, θ0<0\theta_0<0θ0​<0, ηl>0\eta_l>0ηl​>0, 0<c1<⋯<cL<p0<c_1<\dots<c_L<p0<c1​<⋯<cL​<p, p>0p>0p>0, κ>0\kappa>0κ>0, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0) form the predicate Standing, a hypothesis of every model-level theorem. The paper states them in the model's derivation ((15), (24), (42), (43), (50), p. 18) rather than for the abstract control problem.
  • The cost (52) is written as one sum, equal to (52) on AAA; values off AAA are never used. ϕ\phiϕ is the supremum (66) over AAA, never its closed form, so (E9) is a genuine statement.
  • A solution of the Bellman equation includes β>0\beta>0β>0 and a pair (v,v′)(v,v')(v,v′) with v′v'v′ continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and the one-sided derivative of vvv within [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) at every point. "Increasing" is strict.
  • The thresholds enter the goal as a sequence τ\tauτ with τL+1=0\tau_{L+1}=0τL+1​=0 and, for l≤Ll\le Ll≤L, τl≥0\tau_l\ge0τl​≥0 and v(τl)=p−c^lv(\tau_l)=p-\hat c_lv(τl​)=p−c^l​; strict monotonicity makes this the definition τl=v−1(p−c^l)\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l)τl​=v−1(p−c^l​), so the proposition's clause "τl=v−1(p−c^l)\tau_l=v^{-1}(p-\hat c_l)τl​=v−1(p−c^l​)", which restates that definition, is not posed separately. τ0=∞\tau_0=\inftyτ0​=∞ is encoded by dropping the upper bound for l=1l=1l=1.
  • The goal is stated for every solution (β,v)(\beta,v)(β,v); β>0\beta>0β>0 is part of the solution predicate, as on p. 21. It is not vacuous: the companion mission's goal (Theorem 1) asserts that a solution exists. A formalization that assumed the closed form of ϕ\phiϕ, that p−vp-vp−v stays in one linearity interval, or that took ulu_lul​ as the definition of vvv would make the goal trivial and is ruled out.
  • Φ\PhiΦ is the published definition Cohen2019.Robust.Phi, which is Mathlib's cdf (gaussianReal 0 1). Integrals in (D1)–(D2) are oriented interval integrals of continuous functions.

The source is the arXiv preprint v2 including its Online Supplement. The queueing network (§2) and the Brownian control problem (§3) motivate the Bellman equation but are not part of any formal statement; the optimality of the threshold policy (Theorem 2) is not formalized here. Proofs of any milestone, of the goal, and general lemmas on conjugates of piecewise linear functions or on Gaussian integrals over intervals are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Ata, M. H. Tongarlak, D. Lee, J. Field, A Dynamic Model for Managing Volunteer Engagement, arXiv:2312.02920v2, 2023; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.02920
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryLinear Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret II: In (SPP)-Acyclic Networks the Static Planning Solution Is Given by Surplus Vectors in {−1, 0, 1}ⁿResearch Paper

Motivation

Centralized markets such as kidney exchanges, ride-sharing platforms and online labor markets match agents who arrive over time. Kerimov, Ashlagi and Gurvich (SSRN 3824407; Management Science, 2023, doi:10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215) study such a market with nnn agent types and ddd feasible multi-way matches. Their main result is that, when a fluid linear program called the static-planning problem (SPP) has a unique non-degenerate solution, a periodic resolving policy keeps the regret against the hindsight optimum bounded by a constant of order 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ at all times, where the general position gap ϵ\epsilonϵ is the smallest positive basic variable of (SPP).

The constant 1/ϵ1/\epsilon1/ϵ is only informative if one can say what ϵ\epsilonϵ is. Section 5 of the paper does this for a class of networks it calls (SPP)-acyclic: there the optimal solution of (SPP) is an explicit signed sum of arrival rates, so ϵ\epsilonϵ is an imbalance between sums of arrival probabilities. This mission formalizes that structural result and the lemmas it rests on. It needs no probability: only the combinatorics of the network and linear programming.

Setting

A matching network has agent types A={1,…,n}\mathcal A = \{1,\dots,n\}A={1,…,n} and matches M={1,…,d}\mathcal M = \{1,\dots,d\}M={1,…,d}. Match mmm uses one agent of each type in a set A(m)\mathcal A(m)A(m) with ∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)| \ge 2∣A(m)∣≥2, every type belongs to some match, and the matching matrix M∈{0,1}n×dM \in \{0,1\}^{n\times d}M∈{0,1}n×d has Mim=1M_{im} = 1Mim​=1 iff i∈A(m)i \in \mathcal A(m)i∈A(m). Arrival probabilities λ\lambdaλ satisfy λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i \lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1, and match values satisfy rm>0r_m > 0rm​>0.

The matching network graph G\mathcal GG is the bipartite graph whose vertices are the types and the matches, with an edge between type iii and match mmm iff i∈A(m)i \in \mathcal A(m)i∈A(m).

For a right-hand side b∈Rnb \in \mathbb R^nb∈Rn, the static-planning problem is

max⁡ r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=b,z∈R≥0d, s∈R≥0n,\max\ r\cdot z\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Mz + s = b,\quad z \in \mathbb R^d_{\ge 0},\ s \in \mathbb R^n_{\ge 0},max r⋅zs.t.Mz+s=b,z∈R≥0d​, s∈R≥0n​,

and (SPP) is the case b=λb = \lambdab=λ. For a solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) write M+={m:zm∗>0}\mathcal M_+ = \{m : z^*_m > 0\}M+​={m:zm∗​>0} (active matches), M0=M∖M+\mathcal M_0 = \mathcal M \setminus \mathcal M_+M0​=M∖M+​ (redundant matches), Q+={j:sj∗>0}\mathcal Q_+ = \{j : s^*_j > 0\}Q+​={j:sj∗​>0} and Q0=A∖Q+\mathcal Q_0 = \mathcal A \setminus \mathcal Q_+Q0​=A∖Q+​.

The network satisfies the general position condition (GP) if (SPP) has a unique optimal solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) and it is non-degenerate: ∣M+∣+∣Q+∣=n|\mathcal M_+| + |\mathcal Q_+| = n∣M+​∣+∣Q+​∣=n. The optimal basis matrix B\mathcal BB is formed by the columns of MMM indexed by M+\mathcal M_+M+​ and the unit vectors eje_jej​, j∈Q+j \in \mathcal Q_+j∈Q+​.

The (SPP)-residual graph is G\mathcal GG with the redundant matches removed, and the network is (SPP)-acyclic if it satisfies GP and its (SPP)-residual graph has no cycle.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (p. 25)

Assume GP and (SPP)-acyclicity. Then there are vectors yl∈{−1,0,1}ny^l \in \{-1,0,1\}^nyl∈{−1,0,1}n, l∈M+∪Q+l \in \mathcal M_+ \cup \mathcal Q_+l∈M+​∪Q+​, with

zm∗=ymλ>0 (m∈M+),sj∗=yjλ>0 (j∈Q+),z^*_m = y^m\lambda > 0\ (m \in \mathcal M_+),\qquad s^*_j = y^j\lambda > 0\ (j \in \mathcal Q_+),zm∗​=ymλ>0 (m∈M+​),sj∗​=yjλ>0 (j∈Q+​),

and every right-hand side λ~>0\tilde\lambda > 0λ~>0 with ylλ~>0y^l\tilde\lambda > 0ylλ~>0 for all lll has, as its unique optimal solution, zm=ymλ~z_m = y^m\tilde\lambdazm​=ymλ~ on M+\mathcal M_+M+​, sj=yjλ~s_j = y^j\tilde\lambdasj​=yjλ~ on Q+\mathcal Q_+Q+​, and zero elsewhere.

Milestones

  1. (4), p. 20. Under GP, B\mathcal BB is invertible and (zM+∗,sQ+∗)=B−1λ>0(z^*_{\mathcal M_+}, s^*_{\mathcal Q_+}) = \mathcal B^{-1}\lambda > 0(zM+​∗​,sQ+​∗​)=B−1λ>0.
  2. §4.2, p. 20. Under GP the same basis remains optimal for every λ~>0\tilde\lambda > 0λ~>0 with ∥λ~−λ∥∞≤ζ0\|\tilde\lambda - \lambda\|_\infty \le \zeta_0∥λ~−λ∥∞​≤ζ0​, for some ζ0>0\zeta_0 > 0ζ0​>0.
  3. Lemma C.1, p. 44. A connected acyclic matching network graph has at least n−d+1n - d + 1n−d+1 leaves; under GP with M0=∅\mathcal M_0 = \emptysetM0​=∅ and a connected acyclic residual graph, ∣Q+∣=n−d|\mathcal Q_+| = n - d∣Q+​∣=n−d and some over-demanded queue takes part in exactly one match.

A further theorem item, Lemma 5.1 (p. 24), states that under GP a network with only two-way matches, in which every cycle contains an even number of matches, is (SPP)-acyclic.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 turns the regret constant of the paper's main theorem into a quantity one can read off the data: every positive basic variable, and therefore ϵ\epsilonϵ, is ∑iyiλi\sum_i y_i\lambda_i∑i​yi​λi​ with coefficients in {−1,0,1}\{-1,0,1\}{−1,0,1}. Its second sentence describes the whole region of right-hand sides on which the same basis stays optimal, an open polyhedral cone cut out by the inequalities ylλ~>0y^l\tilde\lambda > 0ylλ~>0, which is how the paper relates GP to the arrival rates in §5.1.

On the formal side, the mission builds a reusable model of the matching network, its bipartite incidence graph and the static-planning linear program with a variable right-hand side. Prove2Me does not yet contain the structural theory of optimal bases of such programs. Theorem 5.1 and its milestones are proved in the paper (Appendix C and §4.2); none of them is machine-checked yet.

Difficulty

The representation z∗=B−1λz^* = \mathcal B^{-1}\lambdaz∗=B−1λ holds for every network in general position, so the content of the theorem lies in two places.

  • The entries of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1. Inverses of 0/10/10/1 matrices have arbitrary rational entries in general: the triangle network (three types, matches {1,2},{2,3},{1,3}\{1,2\},\{2,3\},\{1,3\}{1,2},{2,3},{1,3}) has an optimal basis whose inverse has entries ±12\pm\tfrac12±21​. The claim needs the acyclic structure of the residual graph in an essential way.
  • The second sentence. Exhibiting numbers yly^lyl with ylλ=zl∗y^l\lambda = z^*_lylλ=zl∗​ is trivial and says nothing. The statement requires the same vectors to produce the unique optimal solution for a whole open set of right-hand sides, which forces them to be the rows of B−1\mathcal B^{-1}B−1. This step therefore also involves the optimality conditions of (SPP) and the uniqueness part of GP.

Formalization scope

Types are Fin n, matches Fin d, both 0-based. The topology is the structure MatchingNetwork with the fields ∣A(m)∣≥2|\mathcal A(m)| \ge 2∣A(m)∣≥2 and "every type is in a match"; λ\lambdaλ and rrr are separate vectors with the standing predicates λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0, ∑iλi=1\sum_i\lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1 and rm>0r_m > 0rm​>0, which are hypotheses of every theorem. The optimal solution (z∗,s∗)(z^*, s^*)(z∗,s∗) is an argument together with the GP hypothesis, never a default or a choice. The graph is a SimpleGraph on Fin n ⊕ Fin d; the residual graph keeps redundant matches as isolated vertices, which affects neither acyclicity nor the degrees of type vertices. The column index type of B\mathcal BB is M+⊔Q+\mathcal M_+ \sqcup \mathcal Q_+M+​⊔Q+​, and the inverse is a two-sided inverse over these index types, not Matrix.inv, which is 000 on singular matrices.

Conventions the statements commit to:

  • in Theorem 5.1, "induces the optimal solution" is read as the unique optimal solution, and λ~\tilde\lambdaλ~ is any positive vector, not necessarily summing to one;
  • "for all sufficiently small ζ0\zeta_0ζ0​" in milestone 2 is the existence of one ζ0>0\zeta_0 > 0ζ0​>0;
  • Lemma C.1's count of n−d+1n - d + 1n−d+1 leaves is stated without natural-number subtraction;
  • Lemma C.1's second half carries the standing reduction of Appendix C (M0=∅\mathcal M_0 = \emptysetM0​=∅, one connected component) as hypotheses;
  • "every cycle contains an even number of matches" in Lemma 5.1 is stated as "every cycle of the bipartite graph has length divisible by 4".

The paper's own text says "all entries of YYY are either −1-1−1, 000, or −1-1−1" (p. 25); this is read as −1-1−1, 000 or 111, as in the theorem's statement.

A formalization that keeps only the first sentence of Theorem 5.1, or that lets the vectors yly^lyl be unrelated to the basis, is trivially satisfiable and is not the theorem.

Needed infrastructure: optimality conditions for linear programs in equality form (reduced costs, uniqueness of a non-degenerate optimum), Mathlib's acyclic graphs and trees (SimpleGraph.IsAcyclic, IsTree.card_edgeFinset), and degree counting on bipartite graphs. The paper proves Theorem 5.1 in Appendix C by an explicit construction along paths of the residual graph; any correct argument is welcome. Lemmas on the inverse of a basis matrix whose bipartite row–column graph is a forest would be reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • S. Kerimov, I. Ashlagi, I. Gurvich, Dynamic Matching: Characterizing and Achieving Constant Regret, SSRN 3824407 (version of September 14, 2022); Management Science (2023). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3824407, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.01215
  • D. Bertsimas, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Introduction to Linear Optimization, Athena Scientific, 1997, §5.1 (sensitivity analysis of an optimal basis).
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CombinatoricsMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization 2: Depth-L Decision Trees Satisfy log N_H(ε,Π_L) ≤ (2^L−1)log p + 2^L log d + (2^L−1)log(L/ε+1)Research Paper

Motivation

Offline policy learning chooses a treatment rule from logged data: given nnn observations of features XiX_iXi​, the action AiA_iAi​ taken and the reward obtained, pick a policy π:X→{1,…,d}\pi:\mathcal X\to\{1,\dots,d\}π:X→{1,…,d} from a class Π\PiΠ whose expected reward is close to the best in the class. Zhou, Athey and Wager (arXiv:1810.04778v2) bound the regret of their cross-fitted augmented inverse-propensity-weighted learner by a quantity of order κ(Π)V∗/n\kappa(\Pi)\sqrt{V_*/n}κ(Π)V∗​/n​, where κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) is an entropy integral built from Hamming covering numbers of Π\PiΠ. A bound of this kind is only useful for a concrete policy class if κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) is finite and explicit.

Decision trees are the class the paper uses in practice: they are interpretable, they are the standard object in personalized-treatment applications, and the paper's computational sections (a mixed-integer program and a tree-search algorithm) optimize over them. Lemma 4 of the paper is the bridge between the general regret theory and trees: it bounds the Hamming covering number of the class ΠL\Pi_LΠL​ of depth-LLL trees, and hence κ(ΠL)\kappa(\Pi_L)κ(ΠL​). Covering and complexity bounds for trees in the 0–1 (two-action) setting go back to VC-dimension arguments; the multi-action Hamming-cover version here is the one this paper's regret bound consumes.

Setting

Features are points x∈Rpx\in\mathbb R^px∈Rp with components x(1),…,x(p)x(1),\dots,x(p)x(1),…,x(p); there are ddd actions, written 1,…,d1,\dots,d1,…,d. A deterministic policy is a map π:Rp→{1,…,d}\pi:\mathbb R^p\to\{1,\dots,d\}π:Rp→{1,…,d}.

Hamming distance and covers. Fix points x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​ (repetitions allowed). For two policies,

H(π1,π2)=1n∑j=1n1{π1(xj)≠π2(xj)}.H(\pi_1,\pi_2)=\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\mathbf 1\{\pi_1(x_j)\ne\pi_2(x_j)\}.H(π1​,π2​)=n1​j=1∑n​1{π1​(xj​)=π2​(xj​)}.

The ε\varepsilonε-Hamming covering number NH(ε,Π,{x1,…,xn})N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi,\{x_1,\dots,x_n\})NH​(ε,Π,{x1​,…,xn​}) is the least KKK such that some π1,…,πK∈Π\pi_1,\dots,\pi_K\in\Piπ1​,…,πK​∈Π have every π∈Π\pi\in\Piπ∈Π within Hamming distance ε\varepsilonε of some πi\pi_iπi​. The covering number of the class is the worst case over point sets,

NH(ε,Π)=sup⁡{NH(ε,Π,{x1,…,xm}):m≥1},N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi)=\sup\{N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi,\{x_1,\dots,x_m\}) : m\ge1\},NH​(ε,Π)=sup{NH​(ε,Π,{x1​,…,xm​}):m≥1},

and the entropy integral is κ(Π)=∫01log⁡NH(ε2,Π) dε\kappa(\Pi)=\int_0^1\sqrt{\log N_H(\varepsilon^2,\Pi)}\,d\varepsilonκ(Π)=∫01​logNH​(ε2,Π)​dε.

Decision trees. A depth-LLL tree has LLL layers: L−1L-1L−1 layers of branch nodes and a final layer of leaves, so 2L−1−12^{L-1}-12L−1−1 branch nodes and 2L−12^{L-1}2L−1 leaves; a depth-1 tree is a single leaf. A branch node carries a split variable i∈{1,…,p}i\in\{1,\dots,p\}i∈{1,…,p} and a threshold b∈Rb\in\mathbb Rb∈R, and sends xxx to its left child if x(i)<bx(i)<bx(i)<b and to its right child otherwise. Each leaf carries an action. ΠL\Pi_LΠL​ is the set of policies computed by depth-LLL trees. In the Lean development these are DTree p d L, DTree.eval and treePolicies p d L; the Hamming layer is hammingDist, hammingCoverNumOn, hammingCoverNum and entropyIntegral.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 4, part 1 (p. 27)

For p,d,L≥1p,d,L\ge1p,d,L≥1 and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, NH(ε,ΠL)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L)NH​(ε,ΠL​) is finite and

log⁡NH(ε,ΠL)≤(2L−1)log⁡p+2Llog⁡d+(2L−1)log⁡(Lε+1).\log N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L)\le(2^L-1)\log p+2^L\log d+(2^L-1)\log\Big(\frac L\varepsilon+1\Big).logNH​(ε,ΠL​)≤(2L−1)logp+2Llogd+(2L−1)log(εL​+1).

Milestones (App. F)

  1. Display (66), p. 67: for any reals r1,…,rmr_1,\dots,r_mr1​,…,rm​ there are ⌈L/ε⌉\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil⌈L/ε⌉ thresholds bib_ibi​ such that every indicator 1b(r)=1{r<b}\mathbf 1_b(r)=\mathbf 1\{r<b\}1b​(r)=1{r<b} is within Hamming distance ε/L\varepsilon/Lε/L of some 1bi\mathbf 1_{b_i}1bi​​ with respect to r1,…,rmr_1,\dots,r_mr1​,…,rm​.
  2. App. F, Step 2, p. 69: for any n≥1n\ge1n≥1 points, p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2Lp^{2^L-1}\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil^{2^L-1}d^{2^L}p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2L depth-LLL trees ε\varepsilonε-cover ΠL\Pi_LΠL​, i.e. NH(ε,ΠL,{x1,…,xn})≤p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2LN_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L,\{x_1,\dots,x_n\})\le p^{2^L-1}\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil^{2^L-1}d^{2^L}NH​(ε,ΠL​,{x1​,…,xn​})≤p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2L.
  3. App. F, Step 2, p. 69: NH(ε,ΠL)≤p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2LN_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L)\le p^{2^L-1}\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil^{2^L-1}d^{2^L}NH​(ε,ΠL​)≤p2L−1⌈L/ε⌉2L−1d2L.

Companion: Lemma 4, part 2 (p. 27)

κ(ΠL)≤(2L−1)log⁡p+2Llog⁡d+43L1/42L−1.\kappa(\Pi_L)\le\sqrt{(2^L-1)\log p+2^L\log d}+\tfrac43L^{1/4}\sqrt{2^L-1}.κ(ΠL​)≤(2L−1)logp+2Llogd​+34​L1/42L−1​.

It is posed as printed, as a second theorem of the mission rather than a milestone of the goal.

Significance

The result. Lemma 4 makes the abstract regret theory of the paper concrete: with part 2 it gives Theorem 4, the regret bound Op(((2L−1)log⁡p+2Llog⁡d+43L1/42L−1)V∗/n)O_p\big((\sqrt{(2^L-1)\log p+2^L\log d}+\tfrac43L^{1/4}\sqrt{2^L-1})\sqrt{V_*/n}\big)Op​(((2L−1)logp+2Llogd​+34​L1/42L−1​)V∗​/n​) for learning depth-LLL trees, which for fixed L,p,dL,p,dL,p,d is Op(V∗/n)O_p(\sqrt{V_*/n})Op​(V∗​/n​). The covering bound grows only logarithmically in 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε, which is the property the paper's Assumption 3 asks of a policy class. The same counting gives covering bounds for any class of piecewise-constant rules on axis-aligned partitions of bounded depth.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (App. F) but, as far as known, has no machine-checked proof. The paper omits the induction that combines per-node threshold grids into a cover of whole trees ("a straightforward but lengthy induction (omitted)"), and its appendix counts 2L−12^L-12L−1 branch nodes where §6.1's trees have 2L−1−12^{L-1}-12L−1−1. A formal proof fixes both: it supplies the omitted induction and confirms that the printed bound holds for the class actually defined in §6.1. The milestones are reusable statements about threshold indicators and tree covers. The companion part 2 is posed with the printed constant 4/34/34/3, although the printed derivation evaluates ∫01(L/ε2)1/4dε\int_0^1(L/\varepsilon^2)^{1/4}d\varepsilon∫01​(L/ε2)1/4dε as 43L1/4\frac43L^{1/4}34​L1/4 where the integral equals 2L1/42L^{1/4}2L1/4; whether the printed bound holds is part of what the mission settles.

Difficulty

The one-dimensional step (66) is elementary once the Hamming distance between two threshold indicators is identified with a count of points between the thresholds. The difficulty is in passing from single thresholds to whole trees. Replacing each branch node's threshold independently by its nearest grid threshold, with grids built on all nnn points, does not give an ε\varepsilonε cover: the errors at different nodes of the same layer add up, and the naive bound is (2L−1−1)ε/L(2^{L-1}-1)\varepsilon/L(2L−1−1)ε/L rather than ε\varepsilonε. The points that reach a node depend on the thresholds above it, so the approximation has to respect the tree structure, while the number of candidate trees must still be counted as a product over nodes. The passage from finite point sets to NH(ε,ΠL)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L)NH​(ε,ΠL​), which is a supremum over all point sets in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and the arithmetic with ⌈L/ε⌉\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil⌈L/ε⌉ and real logarithms are routine but must be done in the stated types.

Formalization scope

  • Features range over all of Rp\mathbb R^pRp (Fin p → ℝ); the paper's X\mathcal XX is a bounded subset of Rp\mathbb R^pRp, and a bound over Rp\mathbb R^pRp implies the bound over every X⊆Rp\mathcal X\subseteq\mathbb R^pX⊆Rp. Actions are Fin d, split variables Fin p (0-based); policies are deterministic.
  • Point sets are sequences Fin m → (Fin p → ℝ) with repetitions allowed, m≥1m\ge1m≥1; covers are proper (centres in ΠL\Pi_LΠL​). NH(ε,Π)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi)NH​(ε,Π) is in ℕ∞, κ(Π)\kappa(\Pi)κ(Π) a lower Lebesgue integral in ℝ≥0∞ over (0,1](0,1](0,1].
  • Depth follows §6.1: DTree p d 1 are leaves, DTree p d 0 is empty. The bounds are the printed ones, which over-count for this convention; the Lean was not switched to the appendix's convention, which would change ΠL\Pi_LΠL​.
  • Standing hypotheses: p≥1p\ge1p≥1, d≥1d\ge1d≥1, L≥1L\ge1L≥1 ("Let LLL be any fixed positive integer"), ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 (needed for ⌈L/ε⌉\lceil L/\varepsilon\rceil⌈L/ε⌉).
  • The goal asserts finiteness of NH(ε,ΠL)N_H(\varepsilon,\Pi_L)NH​(ε,ΠL​) explicitly. Without it the inequality would be trivially true for an infinite covering number, because Lean's toNat ⊤ = 0 and Real.log 0 = 0. The covering number is an infimum that is 000 only for an empty class, and ΠL\Pi_LΠL​ is nonempty under the hypotheses, so the cover is not trivialized either.
  • Not posed: the O(log⁡1/ε)O(\log 1/\varepsilon)O(log1/ε) remark of Lemma 4.1 (a remark on the right-hand side); Theorem 4 (p. 28, the combination with the regret theorem, which belongs to the companion mission on regret); the mixed-integer program and tree search of §6.2–6.3 and App. G (computational).

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, the omitted per-node induction as a stand-alone lemma, and the companion part 2.

Selected references

  • Z. Zhou, S. Athey, S. Wager, Offline Multi-Action Policy Learning: Generalization and Optimization, arXiv preprint, 2018 (v2). https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.04778
  • L. Breiman, J. Friedman, R. Olshen, C. Stone, Classification and Regression Trees, Wadsworth, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315139470
  • D. Bertsimas, J. Dunn, Optimal classification trees, Machine Learning 106, 1039–1082, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-017-5633-9
  • S. Athey, S. Wager, Policy Learning With Observational Data, Econometrica 89(1), 133–161, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA15732
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AnalysisNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Generalized Newton Method for Subgradient Systems 1: Under Metric Regularity and Semismoothness*, the Prox-Based Newton Algorithm Converges Superlinearly for Prox-Regular FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization reduce to a subgradient inclusion 0∈∂φ(x)0\in\partial\varphi(x)0∈∂φ(x): for a smooth φ\varphiφ this is the gradient equation ∇φ(x)=0\nabla\varphi(x)=0∇φ(x)=0, and for an extended-real-valued φ=f+g\varphi=f+gφ=f+g (a smooth loss plus an indicator or a nonsmooth regularizer) it is the first-order optimality condition of a composite problem. Newton's method is the classical way to solve such equations with a superlinear rate, but its textbook form needs φ∈C2\varphi\in C^2φ∈C2 and a nonsingular Hessian. Khanh, Mordukhovich and Phat (arXiv:2009.10551v2, 2022; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) design a Newton-type method in which the Hessian is replaced by Mordukhovich's second-order subdifferential ∂2φ\partial^2\varphi∂2φ, and prove local superlinear convergence under two assumptions that are weaker than the usual ones: metric regularity (instead of strong metric regularity or tilt stability) and the semismooth* property of Gfrerer and Outrata.

Timeline of the ingredients:

  • 1996: Poliquin and Rockafellar introduce prox-regular functions and show that, for small parameters, their Moreau envelopes are C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 near the reference point and their proximal mappings are single-valued and Lipschitz there (Trans. AMS 348).
  • 2002: Klatte and Kummer develop Newton methods for Lipschitzian equations through generalized derivatives (Nonsmooth Equations in Optimization, Kluwer).
  • 2021: Gfrerer and Outrata define semismooth* set-valued maps and a semismooth* Newton method (SIAM J. Optim. 31).
  • 2021: Mordukhovich and Sarabi give a generalized Newton method for tilt-stable minimizers of prox-regular functions (SIAM J. Optim. 31).
  • 2020/2022: Khanh, Mordukhovich and Phat replace tilt stability and strong metric regularity by metric regularity of ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ.

Setting

Let φ:Rn→(−∞,∞]\varphi:\mathbb R^n\to(-\infty,\infty]φ:Rn→(−∞,∞] be proper. Its limiting subdifferential ∂φ(x)\partial\varphi(x)∂φ(x) collects the limits of Fréchet subgradients at points xk→xx_k\to xxk​→x with φ(xk)→φ(x)\varphi(x_k)\to\varphi(x)φ(xk​)→φ(x). For a set Ω\OmegaΩ, the regular normal cone N^Ω(z)\widehat N_\Omega(z)NΩ​(z) contains the vectors aaa with ⟨a,w−z⟩≤o(∥w−z∥)\langle a,w-z\rangle\le o(\|w-z\|)⟨a,w−z⟩≤o(∥w−z∥) for w∈Ωw\in\Omegaw∈Ω; the limiting normal cone NΩ(z)N_\Omega(z)NΩ​(z) contains the limits of regular normals at nearby points. For a set-valued GGG, the coderivative is D∗G(x,y)(w)={u:(u,−w)∈Ngph⁡G(x,y)}D^*G(x,y)(w)=\{u:(u,-w)\in N_{\operatorname{gph}G}(x,y)\}D∗G(x,y)(w)={u:(u,−w)∈NgphG​(x,y)}, and the second-order subdifferential is ∂2φ(x,v)=D∗∂φ(x,v)\partial^2\varphi(x,v)=D^*\partial\varphi(x,v)∂2φ(x,v)=D∗∂φ(x,v).

The function φ\varphiφ is prox-regular at xˉ\bar xxˉ for vˉ∈∂φ(xˉ)\bar v\in\partial\varphi(\bar x)vˉ∈∂φ(xˉ) with modulus r>0r>0r>0 if it is l.s.c. around xˉ\bar xxˉ and, for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, φ(x)≥φ(u)+⟨v,x−u⟩−r2∥x−u∥2\varphi(x)\ge\varphi(u)+\langle v,x-u\rangle-\tfrac r2\|x-u\|^2φ(x)≥φ(u)+⟨v,x−u⟩−2r​∥x−u∥2 whenever x,ux,ux,u lie within ε\varepsilonε of xˉ\bar xxˉ, ∣φ(u)−φ(xˉ)∣<ε|\varphi(u)-\varphi(\bar x)|<\varepsilon∣φ(u)−φ(xˉ)∣<ε and v∈∂φ(u)v\in\partial\varphi(u)v∈∂φ(u) lies within ε\varepsilonε of vˉ\bar vvˉ. It is continuously prox-regular if, in addition, φ(xk)→φ(xˉ)\varphi(x_k)\to\varphi(\bar x)φ(xk​)→φ(xˉ) along every (xk,vk)→(xˉ,vˉ)(x_k,v_k)\to(\bar x,\bar v)(xk​,vk​)→(xˉ,vˉ) with vk∈∂φ(xk)v_k\in\partial\varphi(x_k)vk​∈∂φ(xk​). It is prox-bounded if it is bounded below by a quadratic function.

For λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the Moreau envelope and proximal mapping are

eλφ(x)=inf⁡y{φ(y)+12λ∥y−x∥2},Prox⁡λφ(x)=argmin⁡y{φ(y)+12λ∥y−x∥2}.e_\lambda\varphi(x)=\inf_y\Big\{\varphi(y)+\tfrac1{2\lambda}\|y-x\|^2\Big\},\qquad \operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)=\operatorname*{argmin}_y\Big\{\varphi(y)+\tfrac1{2\lambda}\|y-x\|^2\Big\}.eλ​φ(x)=yinf​{φ(y)+2λ1​∥y−x∥2},Proxλ​φ(x)=yargmin​{φ(y)+2λ1​∥y−x∥2}.

Algorithm 6.2 starts at x0∈Uλ=rge⁡(I+λ∂φ)x^0\in U_\lambda=\operatorname{rge}(I+\lambda\partial\varphi)x0∈Uλ​=rge(I+λ∂φ). While 0∉∂φ(xk)0\notin\partial\varphi(x^k)0∈/∂φ(xk) it sets vk=λ−1(xk−Prox⁡λφ(xk))v^k=\lambda^{-1}(x^k-\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x^k))vk=λ−1(xk−Proxλ​φ(xk)), picks any dkd^kdk with −vk∈∂2φ(xk−λvk,vk)(λvk+dk)-v^k\in\partial^2\varphi(x^k-\lambda v^k,v^k)(\lambda v^k+d^k)−vk∈∂2φ(xk−λvk,vk)(λvk+dk), and moves to xk+1=xk+dkx^{k+1}=x^k+d^kxk+1=xk+dk.

The standing assumptions at a solution xˉ\bar xxˉ are:

  • (H1) the inclusion −v∈∂2φ(x,v)(d)-v\in\partial^2\varphi(x,v)(d)−v∈∂2φ(x,v)(d) is solvable for every (x,v)∈gph⁡∂φ(x,v)\in\operatorname{gph}\partial\varphi(x,v)∈gph∂φ near (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0);
  • (H2) ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ is metrically regular around (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0);
  • (H3) ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ is semismooth* at (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.6 (corrected parameter range)

If φ\varphiφ is proper, prox-bounded, continuously prox-regular at xˉ\bar xxˉ for 0∈∂φ(xˉ)0\in\partial\varphi(\bar x)0∈∂φ(xˉ) with constants r,εr,\varepsilonr,ε, and (H1)–(H3) hold, then

∃ λ0∈(0,r−1]  ∀λ∈(0,λ0)  ∃ U∈N(xˉ), U⊆Uλ: Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from U and every run from U converges Q-superlinearly to xˉ.\exists\,\lambda_0\in(0,r^{-1}]\ \ \forall\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0)\ \ \exists\,U\in\mathcal N(\bar x),\ U\subseteq U_\lambda:\ \text{Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from }U\text{ and every run from }U\text{ converges Q-superlinearly to }\bar x.∃λ0​∈(0,r−1]  ∀λ∈(0,λ0​)  ∃U∈N(xˉ), U⊆Uλ​: Algorithm 6.2 is well-defined from U and every run from U converges Q-superlinearly to xˉ.

Milestones

  • Lemma 5.4: for continuous FFF, metric regularity around xˉ\bar xxˉ holds iff ∥v∥≥c∥u∥\|v\|\ge c\|u\|∥v∥≥c∥u∥ for all v∈D∗F(x)(u)v\in D^*F(x)(u)v∈D∗F(x)(u), xxx near xˉ\bar xxˉ.
  • Lemma 5.6: D∗F(xˉ)(u1+u2)⊆D∗F(xˉ)(u1)+D∗F(xˉ)(u2)D^*F(\bar x)(u_1+u_2)\subseteq D^*F(\bar x)(u_1)+D^*F(\bar x)(u_2)D∗F(xˉ)(u1​+u2​)⊆D∗F(xˉ)(u1​)+D∗F(xˉ)(u2​) for locally Lipschitz FFF.
  • Lemma 5.5: for C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 φ\varphiφ, ∇φ\nabla\varphi∇φ is semismooth* at xˉ\bar xxˉ iff ∇φ(x)−∇φ(xˉ)−∂2φ(x)(x−xˉ)⊆o(∥x−xˉ∥)\nabla\varphi(x)-\nabla\varphi(\bar x)-\partial^2\varphi(x)(x-\bar x)\subseteq o(\|x-\bar x\|)∇φ(x)−∇φ(xˉ)−∂2φ(x)(x−xˉ)⊆o(∥x−xˉ∥).
  • Theorem 5.7: the C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 Newton method (Algorithm 5.3) converges locally Q-superlinearly under (H1)–(H3) for ∇φ\nabla\varphi∇φ.
  • Lemma 6.3 (i)–(iii), corrected: near xˉ+λvˉ\bar x+\lambda\bar vxˉ+λvˉ, and for λ\lambdaλ small, eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ is C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1, Prox⁡λφ\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphiProxλ​φ is single-valued, monotone and Lipschitz, and ∇eλφ(x)=λ−1(x−Prox⁡λφ(x))\nabla e_\lambda\varphi(x)=\lambda^{-1}(x-\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x))∇eλ​φ(x)=λ−1(x−Proxλ​φ(x)).
  • Lemma 6.4, corrected: x∗∈D∗∇eλφ(x,v)(v∗)  ⟺  x∗∈∂2φ(x−λv,v)(v∗−λx∗)x^*\in D^*\nabla e_\lambda\varphi(x,v)(v^*)\iff x^*\in\partial^2\varphi(x-\lambda v,v)(v^*-\lambda x^*)x∗∈D∗∇eλ​φ(x,v)(v∗)⟺x∗∈∂2φ(x−λv,v)(v∗−λx∗).
  • Remark 6.5, corrected: the steps of Algorithm 6.2 are the steps of Algorithm 5.3 for eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ.

Significance

The result gives a Newton method for nonsmooth, nonconvex subgradient inclusions whose convergence does not require strong metric regularity. Example 5.2 of the paper exhibits a C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 function whose gradient is metrically regular and semismooth* but not strongly metrically regular, so the theorem covers solutions that earlier generalized Newton theories exclude. Through the Moreau envelope, the method reduces to a C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 gradient equation; the same reduction, with the forward–backward envelope, drives the paper's composite algorithm (the companion mission) and its applications to Lasso-type problems.

The paper's results are proved on paper; none of them, nor the underlying theory of coderivatives, second-order subdifferentials or semismooth* maps, is formalized in Mathlib. This mission produces a machine-checked development of that layer and of the convergence theorem. It also fixes a defect: as printed, Lemma 6.3 and Theorem 6.6 claim their conclusions for every λ∈(0,r−1)\lambda\in(0,r^{-1})λ∈(0,r−1), which is false (see Formalization scope); the formal statements are the corrected ones.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says "Algorithm 6.2 is Algorithm 5.3 for eλφe_\lambda\varphieλ​φ, so apply Theorem 5.7". Each step of that sentence carries the difficulty. Transferring (H1)–(H3) from ∂φ\partial\varphi∂φ to ∇eλφ\nabla e_\lambda\varphi∇eλ​φ requires the coderivative of the inverse (λI+∂φ−1)−1(\lambda I+\partial\varphi^{-1})^{-1}(λI+∂φ−1)−1, which needs a local graphical calculus for limiting normals that Mathlib does not have. The C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 property of the envelope and single-valuedness of the proximal map hold only for small λ\lambdaλ and near xˉ+λvˉ\bar x+\lambda\bar vxˉ+λvˉ: prox-regularity is local while Prox⁡λφ\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphiProxλ​φ minimizes globally, so a far-away deep well can capture the proximal point. Theorem 5.7 itself rests on a uniform coderivative bound from metric regularity (Lemma 5.4, a pointwise-to-uniform form of the Mordukhovich coderivative criterion) and on the semismooth* estimate (Lemma 5.5), which combines directional normal cones with the symmetry of generalized Hessians.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); definitions are stated on real inner product spaces, and E×FE\times FE×F carries the sup norm (the cones are norm-independent).
  • ∂\partial∂ is the published analytic limiting subdifferential NonconvexSplitting.Shared.LimitingSubdiff. It agrees with the paper's geometric (2.9) for functions l.s.c. around the point, which covers every function ∂\partial∂ is applied to here.
  • φ\varphiφ takes values in EReal and is assumed proper; the envelope is EReal-valued, and finiteness is asserted wherever it is differentiated.
  • Prox⁡λφ(x)\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)Proxλ​φ(x) is the argmin set. A run of an algorithm selects any proximal point and any direction solving the Newton inclusion. The stop of Step 1 is a constant tail. Well-definedness means every partial run from UUU can be continued.
  • Metric regularity uses dist⁡(⋅;∅)=+∞\operatorname{dist}(\cdot;\emptyset)=+\inftydist(⋅;∅)=+∞. Q-superlinear convergence is stated in ε\varepsilonε-form, avoiding 0/00/00/0. C1,1C^{1,1}C1,1 is local to a neighbourhood.
  • Correction. Lemma 6.3, Lemma 6.4, Remark 6.5 and Theorem 6.6 are posed as "there is λ0∈(0,r−1]\lambda_0\in(0,r^{-1}]λ0​∈(0,r−1] such that for every λ∈(0,λ0)\lambda\in(0,\lambda_0)λ∈(0,λ0​)", on neighbourhoods instead of UλU_\lambdaUλ​. As printed they fail for φ(y)=12y2\varphi(y)=\tfrac12y^2φ(y)=21​y2 on [−5,5][-5,5][−5,5], −1000−∣y−10∣-1000-|y-10|−1000−∣y−10∣ on [9,11][9,11][9,11], +∞+\infty+∞ elsewhere, with xˉ=0\bar x=0xˉ=0, r=1r=1r=1, λ=12\lambda=\tfrac12λ=21​: there Prox⁡λφ(x)={9}\operatorname{Prox}_\lambda\varphi(x)=\{9\}Proxλ​φ(x)={9} near 000, and Algorithm 6.2 jumps to the stationary point 999. Lemmas 5.4–5.6 and Theorem 5.7 are posed as printed.
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: λ0>0\lambda_0>0λ0​>0 is part of the conclusion, so the ∀λ\forall\lambda∀λ is never vacuous; conclusions hold for every run rather than for a run chosen by Classical.choose; and φ\varphiφ is not specialized (no convexity, which would make Uλ=RnU_\lambda=\mathbb R^nUλ​=Rn; no C2C^2C2; no strong metric regularity; no assumption that xˉ\bar xxˉ is a minimizer).
  • Reusable infrastructure: normal cones to graphs, limiting and directional coderivatives, metric regularity, semismooth*, prox-regularity, Moreau envelopes. Formalizations of Mordukhovich's coderivative criterion, of the scalarization formula D∗F(xˉ)(u)=∂⟨u,F⟩(xˉ)D^*F(\bar x)(u)=\partial\langle u,F\rangle(\bar x)D∗F(xˉ)(u)=∂⟨u,F⟩(xˉ) for Lipschitz FFF, and of Poliquin–Rockafellar's Theorem 4.4 are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • P. D. Khanh, B. S. Mordukhovich, V. T. Phat, A Generalized Newton Method for Subgradient Systems, arXiv:2009.10551v2, 2022; Math. Oper. Res., 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.10551
  • R. A. Poliquin, R. T. Rockafellar, Prox-regular functions in variational analysis, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 348, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-96-01544-9
  • H. Gfrerer, J. V. Outrata, On a semismooth Newton method for solving generalized equations*, SIAM J. Optim. 31, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1257408
  • B. S. Mordukhovich, M. E. Sarabi, Generalized Newton algorithms for tilt-stable minimizers in nonsmooth optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 31, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1137/20M1329937
  • B. S. Mordukhovich, Variational Analysis and Generalized Differentiation I, Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-31247-1
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
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EconomicsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy II: The Optimal Hybrid Inspection Policy Strictly Beats the Random Policy and Weakly Beats the Periodic PolicyResearch Paper

Why inspection timing matters

Banks and other financial firms lose money through operational errors: mistyped trades, missed reconciliations, compliance lapses. Regulators require the firm to hold capital against these losses, and internal audit teams spend most of their effort deciding when to inspect. Two inspection schedules are common in practice: a periodic schedule (inspect every month) and a random schedule (surprise audits). A periodic schedule leaves no error undetected for long, but an employee who knows the date can relax right after an inspection and work hard only before the next one. A random schedule removes that back-loading, but leaves some errors undetected for long stretches.

Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy (SSRN 3491006; published in Management Science, DOI 10.1287/mnsc.2021.00322), model this trade-off as a principal–agent problem with moral hazard. They show that neither pure schedule dominates the other (their Proposition 4, the subject of mission I of this series), and then propose a hybrid schedule that combines them. This mission formalizes their Proposition 5: the best hybrid schedule beats the best random schedule strictly and the best periodic schedule weakly.

The source used throughout is the authors' SSRN preprint, version of July 2023. All labels (Proposition 5, Lemma 5, (EC.55), …) and page numbers are those of that version, not of the published article.

The model

A firm (the principal) employs an agent whose errors arrive as a Poisson process with rate λe−at\lambda e^{-a_t}λe−at​. Here at≥0a_t\ge0at​≥0 is the agent's effort at time ttt since the last inspection, at unit cost ccc. Each undetected error costs the principal LLL per unit of time until an inspection finds it. At each inspection the agent pays a penalty PPP per error found. The principal pays a wage www per unit of time and an inspection cost KKK per inspection, earns base profit μ\muμ, and both parties discount at rate rrr. The agent accepts the job only if his payoff is at least his reservation payoff πˉ\bar\piπˉ. Write μˉ=μ−rπˉ\bar\mu=\mu-r\bar\piμˉ​=μ−rπˉ.

The time τ\tauτ between two inspections is drawn independently in every cycle from a law chosen by the principal, with mean 1/v1/v1/v (the frequency vvv):

  • random policy RRR: τ∼Exp(v)\tau\sim\mathrm{Exp}(v)τ∼Exp(v);
  • periodic policy DDD: τ=1/v\tau=1/vτ=1/v;
  • hybrid policy H(q)H(q)H(q), q∈[0,1]q\in[0,1]q∈[0,1]: inspect at time q/vq/vq/v with probability qqq; otherwise wait a further Exp(v)\mathrm{Exp}(v)Exp(v) time. Its distribution function is (21):
Fτ(t)={1−(1−q)e−v(t−q/v),t>q/v,q,t=q/v,0,t<q/v.F_\tau(t)=\begin{cases}1-(1-q)e^{-v(t-q/v)}, & t>q/v,\\ q, & t=q/v,\\ 0, & t<q/v.\end{cases}Fτ​(t)=⎩⎨⎧​1−(1−q)e−v(t−q/v),q,0,​t>q/v,t=q/v,t<q/v.​

H(1)H(1)H(1) is the periodic policy and H(0)H(0)H(0) the random one.

Given a policy and a strategy (v,P,w)(v,P,w)(v,P,w), the agent chooses an effort path that maximizes his discounted payoff (1). The principal's discounted payoff is (3):

Π(v,P,w)=μ−wr−L E[∫0τNta∗e−rtdt]1−E[e−rτ]+P E[Nτa∗e−rτ]1−E[e−rτ]−Ker/v−1,\Pi(v,P,w)=\frac{\mu-w}{r}-L\,\frac{\mathbb E[\int_0^\tau N^{a^*}_t e^{-rt}dt]}{1-\mathbb E[e^{-r\tau}]}+P\,\frac{\mathbb E[N^{a^*}_\tau e^{-r\tau}]}{1-\mathbb E[e^{-r\tau}]}-\frac{K}{e^{r/v}-1},Π(v,P,w)=rμ−w​−L1−E[e−rτ]E[∫0τ​Nta∗​e−rtdt]​+P1−E[e−rτ]E[Nτa∗​e−rτ]​−er/v−1K​,

where a∗a^*a∗ is the agent's optimal effort and NtaN^{a}_tNta​ is the number of errors made by time ttt in a cycle. The principal maximizes Π\PiΠ over v,P,w≥0v,P,w\ge0v,P,w≥0 subject to participation (4)–(5). Throughout, Assumption 1 holds: c<Lλ/r<μˉc<L\lambda/r<\bar\muc<Lλ/r<μˉ​. The optimal payoff under policy III is written ΠI(SI∗)\Pi_I(S^*_I)ΠI​(SI∗​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 20)

For every inspection cost K>0K>0K>0 there is a payoff xHx_HxH​ achievable by some hybrid policy such that

xR<xH  for all achievable random payoffs xR,xD≤xH  for all achievable periodic payoffs xD.x_R<x_H\ \text{ for all achievable random payoffs } x_R,\qquad x_D\le x_H\ \text{ for all achievable periodic payoffs } x_D .xR​<xH​  for all achievable random payoffs xR​,xD​≤xH​  for all achievable periodic payoffs xD​.

In the paper's notation, ΠH(q∗)(SH(q∗)∗)>ΠR(SR∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}(S^*_{H(q^*)})>\Pi_R(S^*_R)ΠH(q∗)​(SH(q∗)∗​)>ΠR​(SR∗​) and ΠH(q∗)(SH(q∗)∗)≥ΠD(SD∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}(S^*_{H(q^*)})\ge\Pi_D(S^*_D)ΠH(q∗)​(SH(q∗)∗​)≥ΠD​(SD∗​).

Milestones

  1. (6), p. 10. At an optimal strategy the participation constraint binds, and ΠI=VI(v,P)\Pi_I=V_I(v,P)ΠI​=VI​(v,P), the reduced payoff (6).
  2. Lemma 3, p. 13. Under RRR the optimal effort is constant, with e−a∗=min⁡{cPλr+vv,1}e^{-a^*}=\min\{\frac{c}{P\lambda}\frac{r+v}{v},1\}e−a∗=min{Pλc​vr+v​,1}, and it is zero when P≤c/λP\le c/\lambdaP≤c/λ.
  3. Lemma 5(a), pp. 19–20. Under H(q)H(q)H(q) the optimal effort is given by (22): dynamic before q/vq/vq/v, constant after it.
  4. Lemma EC.3, p. ec8. The optimal random strategy is SR1S^1_RSR1​ (effort inducement) or SR0S^0_RSR0​ (error correction).
  5. Proposition 1, p. 14. SR1S^1_RSR1​ is optimal above a threshold KRK_RKR​ and SR0S^0_RSR0​ below it, in closed form with an implicitly defined α\alphaα and vR0v^0_RvR0​.
  6. (EC.55), pp. ec34–ec35. With zero effort, VH(q)0(v)>VR0(v)V^0_{H(q)}(v)>V^0_R(v)VH(q)0​(v)>VR0​(v) if and only if v>vqv>v^qv>vq, where eqr/vq=1+qr/vq+(qr/vq)2e^{qr/v^q}=1+qr/v^q+(qr/v^q)^2eqr/vq=1+qr/vq+(qr/vq)2, and vq<qrv^q<qrvq<qr.

Significance

Proposition 5 says that reducing the randomness of a surprise-audit schedule, in the hybrid way, strictly improves the principal's optimal payoff whatever the inspection cost. Combined with Proposition 4 it yields the paper's Corollary 1: when inspections are expensive, the optimal mix lies strictly between the two pure policies. The comparison is between optima: each policy is evaluated at its own best frequency, penalty and wage, with the agent best-responding.

The result is proved in the paper (pp. ec34–ec35); to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a measure-theoretic treatment of renewal-type payoffs against three inspection laws, the agent's optimal control problem under each law, and the closed-form solution of the random policy (Proposition 1). The model layer (laws, payoffs, best response, achievable payoffs) is shared with mission I of this series.

Where the difficulty lies

The weak part is immediate, because the periodic policy is the hybrid policy with q=1q=1q=1. The strict part is not a comparison of two closed forms: the hybrid optimum has no closed form, and the optimal mix q∗q^*q∗ is not computed. The random optimum itself is one of two strategies of different nature (Lemma EC.3), effort-inducing or error-correcting, and the agent's response under H(q)H(q)H(q) has a different shape from his response under RRR (Lemma 5), so the regime boundaries of the two policies do not coincide. The naive claim that H(q)H(q)H(q) beats RRR at every strategy is false: with zero effort, VH(q)0(v)<VR0(v)V^0_{H(q)}(v)<V^0_R(v)VH(q)0​(v)<VR0​(v) whenever v<vqv<v^qv<vq (EC.55), so whether mixing helps depends on the frequency.

Formalization scope

  • Model layer. The M\mathcal MM error classes enter only through λ=∑mλm\lambda=\sum_m\lambda_mλ=∑m​λm​ and L=∑m(λm/λ)LmL=\sum_m(\lambda_m/\lambda)L_mL=∑m​(λm​/λ)Lm​, as in the paper from p. 10 on. The model starts at the reformulated payoffs (1) and (3): the cycle decomposition of EC.4.1 is not formalized, and expected counts are E[Nta]=λ∫0te−asds\mathbb E[N^a_t]=\lambda\int_0^te^{-a_s}dsE[Nta​]=λ∫0t​e−as​ds, independent of τ\tauτ.
  • Standing assumptions. r,c,λ,L,μ,πˉ,K>0r,c,\lambda,L,\mu,\bar\pi,K>0r,c,λ,L,μ,πˉ,K>0 and Assumption 1 (c<Lλ/r<μˉc<L\lambda/r<\bar\muc<Lλ/r<μˉ​).
  • Effort paths are functions of the time since the last inspection, the same in every cycle. They are measurable, nonnegative and bounded; boundedness keeps every integral finite and loses no optimal effort of Lemmas 3–5.
  • Frequencies are v>0v>0v>0, because (6) contains er/ve^{r/v}er/v.
  • Laws. Exp(v)\mathrm{Exp}(v)Exp(v) is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure v; the periodic law is a Dirac mass at 1/v1/v1/v; the hybrid law is q δq/vq\,\delta_{q/v}qδq/v​ plus (1−q)(1-q)(1−q) times the shifted exponential law.
  • Optima. "Policy AAA's optimum beats policy BBB's" is stated as: some achievable AAA-payoff is larger than every achievable BBB-payoff. No supremum is used, so no junk value of an empty or unbounded set can make a statement true. The argmax q∗q^*q∗ of (25) is not formalized, because the paper does not prove that it exists; one dominating hybrid payoff is exactly what the comparison with ΠH(q∗)\Pi_{H(q^*)}ΠH(q∗)​ asserts.
  • Agent optimality is tested at wage 000; the wage enters (1) only as w/rw/rw/r.
  • Divisions. The effort formulas (11) and (22) divide by PPP; they are stated under P>c/λP>c/\lambdaP>c/λ, with the zero-effort case stated separately.
  • Implicit numbers. α\alphaα, vR0v^0_RvR0​ and vqv^qvq are variables carrying their defining equations and positivity.

The goal cannot be satisfied vacuously: it asserts the existence of an achievable hybrid payoff, so an empty achievable set does not make it true.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the integral identities for the three laws (Fubini for E[∫0τ⋅]\mathbb E[\int_0^\tau\cdot]E[∫0τ​⋅]), the pointwise solution of the agent's problem, the two-variable optimization behind Proposition 1, and the final perturbation argument. The law lemmas and the agent's problem are reusable for any renewal-type inspection model.

Selected references

  • Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy, SSRN 3491006, version of July 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3491006
  • Y. Kim and Y. Xu, Operational Risk Management: Optimal Inspection Policy, Management Science (published version; not the numbering used here). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.00322
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Actuarial SciencePartial Differential EquationsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon I: The HJB Variational Inequality Has a Unique Classical Solution with v_x ≥ 1, v_xx ≤ 0 and λv_x + v_xx ≥ 0Research Paper

Dividends, reinsurance and a finite horizon

An insurer that pays dividends to its shareholders faces a trade-off studied since de Finetti (1957): paying out surplus early raises the discounted payout but brings ruin closer. Reinsurance changes the trade-off, because ceding part of each claim lowers the volatility of the surplus at the price of a reinsurance premium. When the insurer may choose both the dividend stream and, at every moment, an arbitrary reinsurance contract, the problem becomes a mixed singular–classical stochastic control problem. Most of the literature treats it on an infinite horizon, where the value function solves an ordinary differential equation. On a finite horizon TTT the value function also depends on time to maturity, the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation becomes a parabolic variational inequality with a gradient constraint, and neither its solvability nor the regularity of its solution is classical.

Guan, Xu and Zhou (arXiv:2008.00391v3, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) show by PDE methods that this variational inequality has a classical solution, identify it with the value function, and read the optimal reinsurance contract and dividend barrier off its derivatives. This mission formalizes the PDE part: Theorem 3.1 and the steps of Appendix A that lead to it.

Setting

Claims are nonnegative random variables with common distribution function FFF, F(0−)=0F(0-)=0F(0−)=0, possibly discontinuous. The paper assumes the tail condition

z3 (1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)z^3\,(1-F(z))\ \text{is bounded on }[0,\infty), \tag{3.3}z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞),(3.3)

so the moments μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z) are finite. The other data are the net reinsurance loading γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount factor c>0c>0c>0 and the horizon T>0T>0T>0; the mission assumes γ<μ1\gamma<\mu_1γ<μ1​ throughout.

A reinsurance contract is described by the retained loss H(z)H(z)H(z) the insurer keeps out of a claim of size zzz, with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z; H\mathcal HH is the set of such functions. For a function v(x,t)v(x,t)v(x,t) of the surplus xxx and the time to maturity ttt the operator

Lv=sup⁡H∈H(vxx2∫0∞H(z)2 dF(z)+vx∫0∞H(z) dF(z))−γvx−cv(3.2)\mathcal Lv=\sup_{H\in\mathcal H}\Big(\frac{v_{xx}}2\int_0^\infty H(z)^2\,dF(z)+v_x\int_0^\infty H(z)\,dF(z)\Big)-\gamma v_x-cv \tag{3.2}Lv=H∈Hsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H(z)2dF(z)+vx​∫0∞​H(z)dF(z))−γvx​−cv(3.2)

is the generator of the controlled diffusion approximation of the surplus. The HJB equation is the variational inequality, on QT=(0,∞)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_T=(0,\infty)\times(0,T]QT​=(0,∞)×(0,T],

min⁡{vt−Lv, vx−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)\min\{v_t-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0,\qquad v(0,t)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x. \tag{3.1}min{vt​−Lv, vx​−1}=0,v(0,t)=0,v(x,0)=x.(3.1)

The functions

A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0),A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\qquad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\qquad(y>0),A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0),

with A=μ2/2A=\mu_2/2A=μ2​/2 and B=μ1B=\mu_1B=μ1​ for y≤0y\le0y≤0, compute the supremum in (3.2), and f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γf(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gammaf(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ has a unique root λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The penalized gradient problem (A.17) on QL,T=(0,L)×(0,T]\mathcal Q_{L,T}=(0,L)\times(0,T]QL,T​=(0,L)×(0,T] is

ut−Tu+βε(u−1)=0,(λu+ux)(0,t)=fε(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,u_t-\mathcal Tu+\beta_\varepsilon(u-1)=0,\quad (\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=f_\varepsilon(t),\quad u(L,t)=1,\quad u(x,0)=1,ut​−Tu+βε​(u−1)=0,(λu+ux​)(0,t)=fε​(t),u(L,t)=1,u(x,0)=1,

with Tu=A(−ux/u)uxx+B(−ux/u)ux−γux−cu\mathcal Tu=A(-u_x/u)u_{xx}+B(-u_x/u)u_x-\gamma u_x-cuTu=A(−ux​/u)uxx​+B(−ux​/u)ux​−γux​−cu, a penalty function βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ and a boundary datum fεf_\varepsilonfε​ that ramps from λ\lambdaλ down to 000 on [0,ε][0,\varepsilon][0,ε].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

There is a unique v∈C2,1(Q‾T∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q‾T)v\in C^{2,1}(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C(\overline{\mathcal Q}_T)v∈C2,1(Q​T​∖{(0,0)})∩C(Q​T​) that solves (3.1) and satisfies

vx≥1,vt≥0,vxx≤0,vxxx≥0 (weakly),vxt≥0,λvx+vxx≥0.v_x\ge1,\quad v_t\ge0,\quad v_{xx}\le0,\quad v_{xxx}\ge0\ \text{(weakly)},\quad v_{xt}\ge0,\quad \lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0 .vx​≥1,vt​≥0,vxx​≤0,vxxx​≥0 (weakly),vxt​≥0,λvx​+vxx​≥0.

Uniqueness is among solutions in the same class with the same six properties, as equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​.

Milestones

  1. (A.7)–(A.9): AAA, BBB are non-increasing, Lipschitz, bounded by 12min⁡{y−2,μ2}\tfrac12\min\{y^{-2},\mu_2\}21​min{y−2,μ2​} and min⁡{y−1,μ1}\min\{y^{-1},\mu_1\}min{y−1,μ1​}, with y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1y^3A'=y^2B'=F(1/y)-1y3A′=y2B′=F(1/y)−1.
  2. (A.10): Lv=A(−vxx/vx)vxx+B(−vxx/vx)vx−γvx−cv\mathcal Lv=A(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_{xx}+B(-v_{xx}/v_x)v_x-\gamma v_x-cvLv=A(−vxx​/vx​)vxx​+B(−vxx​/vx​)vx​−γvx​−cv when vx>0v_x>0vx​>0.
  3. (A.12)–(A.13): f′=−A<0f'=-A<0f′=−A<0 everywhere, and fff has a unique root, which is positive.
  4. Lemma A.1: A(−y/z)A(-y/z)A(−y/z) and B(−y/z)B(-y/z)B(−y/z) are Lipschitz on R×[1,∞)\mathbb R\times[1,\infty)R×[1,∞).
  5. Lemma A.2: a comparison principle for (A.17) between functions ≥1\ge1≥1.
  6. Lemma A.3: (A.17) has a C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 solution, and 1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ)1\le u^\varepsilon\le Ke^{\Lambda t}/(x+1/\lambda)1≤uε≤KeΛt/(x+1/λ) for small ε\varepsilonε, with K=L+1/λ+1K=L+1/\lambda+1K=L+1/λ+1, Λ=μ2/γ2+γλ\Lambda=\mu_2/\gamma^2+\gamma\lambdaΛ=μ2​/γ2+γλ.
  7. Lemmas A.4–A.6: utε≥0u^\varepsilon_t\ge0utε​≥0, uxε≤0u^\varepsilon_x\le0uxε​≤0, λuε+uxε≥0\lambda u^\varepsilon+u^\varepsilon_x\ge0λuε+uxε​≥0, uxxε≥0u^\varepsilon_{xx}\ge0uxxε​≥0.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 is the analytic core of the paper. The verification theorem (Theorem 3.2) needs a classical solution that is increasing and concave in xxx, which Theorem 3.1 provides, and Section 4 derives the shape of the optimal policy from (3.4)–(3.9): the optimal retained loss is min⁡{z, −vx/vxx}\min\{z,\,-v_x/v_{xx}\}min{z,−vx​/vxx​}, and (3.9) bounds the reinsurance barrier away from zero. Without the existence of a classical solution, the HJB equation could only be interpreted in the viscosity sense, whose uniqueness theory for this mixed singular–classical problem is not available, and the strategies would not be well defined.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing in it has been machine-checked. A formal development would produce, beyond the theorem, a reusable formal treatment of a parabolic obstacle problem with a Robin boundary condition through penalization, comparison principles for quasilinear parabolic equations, and the explicit reduction of a supremum over reinsurance contracts against an arbitrary claim distribution. The appendix lemmas (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1 are elementary real analysis and are self-contained targets.

Difficulty

The supremum in L\mathcal LL is over a function space and FFF may have atoms, so even the closed form (A.10) and the everywhere-differentiability of fff require care with one-sided derivatives at the jumps of FFF. The operator is fully nonlinear and degenerates as −vxx/vx→∞-v_{xx}/v_x\to\infty−vxx​/vx​→∞, since A(y)→0A(y)\to0A(y)→0. The inequality carries a gradient constraint vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1 rather than an obstacle, and the left boundary condition (λu+ux)(0,t)=0(\lambda u+u_x)(0,t)=0(λu+ux​)(0,t)=0 is incompatible with the initial condition at the corner (0,0)(0,0)(0,0), which is why the solution is only claimed to be C2,1C^{2,1}C2,1 away from that corner. The obvious route, solving (3.1) directly by a fixed-point argument, does not control vxxv_{xx}vxx​; the paper differentiates in xxx and works with the gradient u=vxu=v_xu=vx​, which turns the gradient constraint into an obstacle but introduces the Robin condition with the wrong sign for a direct maximum principle. The passage ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 needs Wp2,1W^{2,1}_pWp2,1​ and Hölder estimates uniform in ε\varepsilonε, which are not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

  • Functions of (x,t)(x,t)(x,t) are ℝ → ℝ → ℝ; ttt is time to maturity. Partial derivatives are explicit functions vx,vxx,vtv_x, v_{xx}, v_tvx​,vxx​,vt​ tied to vvv by HasDerivAt on sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<t<T0<t<T0<t<T) and continuous on Q‾T∖{(0,0)}\overline{\mathcal Q}_T\setminus\{(0,0)\}Q​T​∖{(0,0)}; boundary values are these continuous extensions, and (3.1) holds at t=Tt=Tt=T through them.
  • The claim law is a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with no mass on (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0), and F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. H\mathcal HH consists of measurable HHH with 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z for z≥0z\ge0z≥0, and L\mathcal LL is defined by the supremum (3.2), not by (A.10).
  • 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a standing hypothesis (the paper imposes it from Section 4; without it fff has no positive root and (3.9) is undefined).
  • (3.7) is read as monotonicity of x↦vxx(x,t)x\mapsto v_{xx}(x,t)x↦vxx​(x,t), (3.8) as monotonicity of t↦vx(x,t)t\mapsto v_x(x,t)t↦vx​(x,t), (3.9) for every positive root of fff.
  • Uniqueness is equality on Q‾T\overline{\mathcal Q}_TQ​T​ within the class of solutions with (3.4)–(3.9). Uniqueness among all classical solutions is not posed: the paper's argument on an unbounded domain uses no growth condition.
  • Penalty data are taken at one fixed ε\varepsilonε; the limit ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 of βε\beta_\varepsilonβε​ is not part of the data. "Sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε" is an ε0>0\varepsilon_0>0ε0​>0 depending on the model and LLL.
  • A formalization in which L\mathcal LL is given by its closed form, the derivatives are deriv evaluated at boundary points, or uniqueness is stated as equality of functions on all of R2\mathbb R^2R2, would trivialize or falsify the goal; the statements avoid all three.

Needed infrastructure: interval integrals of monotone functions and their one-sided derivatives, maximum and comparison principles for linear and quasilinear parabolic equations in one space dimension, existence for quasilinear parabolic problems (Leray–Schauder with Schauder estimates), and compactness in Hölder and Sobolev spaces. The parabolic comparison principle and the penalization scheme are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones, in particular the elementary ones (A.7)–(A.13) and Lemma A.1, are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • C. Guan, Z. Q. Xu, R. Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; preprint arXiv:2008.00391v3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
  • B. de Finetti, Su un'impostazione alternativa della teoria collettiva del rischio, Transactions of the XVth International Congress of Actuaries, 1957.
  • G. M. Lieberman, Second Order Parabolic Differential Equations, World Scientific, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1142/3302
  • L. C. Evans, Partial Differential Equations, 2nd ed., American Mathematical Society, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1090/gsm/019
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Actuarial SciencePartial Differential EquationsStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Optimal Reinsurance and Dividend Payout in Finite Time Horizon II: For Discrete Claims the Reinsurance Boundaries Are C¹, Start at 0 and Are Spaced Less Than (z_j − z_{j−1})/2c ApartResearch Paper

Motivation

An insurance company pays out dividends to its shareholders and buys reinsurance to limit its exposure to large claims. Both decisions are dynamic: the right amount to cede and the right moment to pay depend on the current surplus and on the time left until a fixed maturity TTT. Guan, Xu and Zhou (2023) solve the combined problem for a diffusion-approximated surplus with a general claim distribution, a general reinsurance contract (any retained-loss function 0≤H(z)≤z0\le H(z)\le z0≤H(z)≤z), and a finite horizon. Their main structural output is a description of the optimal strategy by free boundaries in the surplus–time plane: a dividend barrier d(τ)d(\tau)d(τ), and for each claim size zzz a reinsurance barrier K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ).

A companion mission formalizes the existence and uniqueness of the classical solution of the HJB variational inequality (Theorem 3.1 of the paper). This mission takes that solution as given and formalizes the shape of the boundaries (Section 4 of the paper), culminating in the description of the reinsurance boundaries for discrete claim distributions (Theorem 4.5).

Setting

Claims are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative random variable Z1Z_1Z1​ with distribution function FFF, satisfying the tail condition that z3(1−F(z))z^3(1-F(z))z3(1−F(z)) is bounded on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Write μ1=∫0∞z dF(z)\mu_1=\int_0^\infty z\,dF(z)μ1​=∫0∞​zdF(z) and μ2=∫0∞z2 dF(z)\mu_2=\int_0^\infty z^2\,dF(z)μ2​=∫0∞​z2dF(z). The reinsurance loading is γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, the discount rate c>0c>0c>0, the horizon T>0T>0T>0, and throughout 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ (for γ≥μ1\gamma\ge\mu_1γ≥μ1​ the problem is trivial).

The value function v(x,τ)v(x,\tau)v(x,τ), with x≥0x\ge0x≥0 the surplus and τ∈[0,T]\tau\in[0,T]τ∈[0,T] the time to maturity, is the solution of the variational inequality

min⁡{vτ−Lv, vx−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,\min\{v_\tau-\mathcal Lv,\ v_x-1\}=0\ \text{on }(0,\infty)\times(0,T],\qquad v(0,\tau)=0,\qquad v(x,0)=x,min{vτ​−Lv, vx​−1}=0 on (0,∞)×(0,T],v(0,τ)=0,v(x,0)=x,

where

Lv=sup⁡0≤H(z)≤z(vxx2∫0∞H2 dF+vx∫0∞H dF)−γvx−cv.\mathcal Lv=\sup_{0\le H(z)\le z}\Bigl(\frac{v_{xx}}{2}\int_0^\infty H^2\,dF+v_x\int_0^\infty H\,dF\Bigr)-\gamma v_x-cv .Lv=0≤H(z)≤zsup​(2vxx​​∫0∞​H2dF+vx​∫0∞​HdF)−γvx​−cv.

It is the unique function of class C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T])C^{2,1}([0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\})\cap C([0,\infty)\times[0,T])C2,1([0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)})∩C([0,∞)×[0,T]) that solves this inequality and satisfies vx≥1v_x\ge1vx​≥1, vτ≥0v_\tau\ge0vτ​≥0, vxx≤0v_{xx}\le0vxx​≤0, vxxv_{xx}vxx​ nondecreasing in xxx, vxv_xvx​ nondecreasing in τ\tauτ, and λvx+vxx≥0\lambda v_x+v_{xx}\ge0λvx​+vxx​≥0. Here λ\lambdaλ is the unique positive root of

f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/yz(1−F(z)) dz,B(y)=∫01/y(1−F(z)) dz(y>0).f(y)=-yA(y)+B(y)-\gamma,\qquad A(y)=\int_0^{1/y}z(1-F(z))\,dz,\quad B(y)=\int_0^{1/y}(1-F(z))\,dz\quad(y>0).f(y)=−yA(y)+B(y)−γ,A(y)=∫01/y​z(1−F(z))dz,B(y)=∫01/y​(1−F(z))dz(y>0).

The no-dividend region is ND={(x,τ):vx(x,τ)>1}\mathcal{ND}=\{(x,\tau): v_x(x,\tau)>1\}ND={(x,τ):vx​(x,τ)>1}, and the dividend boundary is

d(τ)=inf⁡{x≥0:vx(x,τ)=1}.d(\tau)=\inf\{x\ge0: v_x(x,\tau)=1\}.d(τ)=inf{x≥0:vx​(x,τ)=1}.

For a claim of size zzz the optimal retained loss is −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​ if −vxx/vx>1/z-v_{xx}/v_x>1/z−vxx​/vx​>1/z and zzz otherwise, and the ceded loss I^(z,x,τ)\hat I(z,x,\tau)I^(z,x,τ) is the difference from zzz. The reinsurance boundary is K(z,τ)=sup⁡{x>0:−vxx/vx(x,τ)>1/z}K(z,\tau)=\sup\{x>0: -v_{xx}/v_x(x,\tau)>1/z\}K(z,τ)=sup{x>0:−vxx​/vx​(x,τ)>1/z}. For a discrete law P(Z1=zj)=pj>0\mathbb P(Z_1=z_j)=p_j>0P(Z1​=zj​)=pj​>0 with 0<z1<⋯<zN0<z_1<\dots<z_N0<z1​<⋯<zN​, the jjj-th reinsurance boundary is

Kj(τ)=inf⁡{x>0:−vxxvx(x,τ)≤1zj}.K_j(\tau)=\inf\Bigl\{x>0: -\frac{v_{xx}}{v_x}(x,\tau)\le\frac1{z_j}\Bigr\}.Kj​(τ)=inf{x>0:−vx​vxx​​(x,τ)≤zj​1​}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.5

For a discrete claim law, every KjK_jKj​ is continuously differentiable on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and for every τ∈(0,T]\tau\in(0,T]τ∈(0,T]:

Kj(τ)=0  if zj≤1λ;0<Ki0(τ)<zi0−1/λ2c;0<Kj(τ)−Kj−1(τ)<zj−zj−12c  (j>i0);lim⁡τ→0+Kj(τ)=0,K_j(\tau)=0\ \text{ if }z_j\le\tfrac1\lambda;\qquad 0<K_{i_0}(\tau)<\frac{z_{i_0}-1/\lambda}{2c};\qquad 0<K_j(\tau)-K_{j-1}(\tau)<\frac{z_j-z_{j-1}}{2c}\ \ (j>i_0);\qquad \lim_{\tau\to0+}K_j(\tau)=0,Kj​(τ)=0  if zj​≤λ1​;0<Ki0​​(τ)<2czi0​​−1/λ​;0<Kj​(τ)−Kj−1​(τ)<2czj​−zj−1​​  (j>i0​);τ→0+lim​Kj​(τ)=0,

where zi0z_{i_0}zi0​​ is the smallest atom above 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4.2: ddd is continuous and nondecreasing on (0,T](0,T](0,T], and d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1+cγ)(cμ2+γ2)/(γc3)d(0+)=0<d(\tau)\le\sqrt{(\mu_1+c\gamma)(c\mu_2+\gamma^2)/(\gamma c^3)}d(0+)=0<d(τ)≤(μ1​+cγ)(cμ2​+γ2)/(γc3)​.
  2. Lemma 4.3: vx,vτ∈C2,1v_x,v_\tau\in C^{2,1}vx​,vτ​∈C2,1 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0 in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and I^(z,x,τ)=max⁡{z+vx/vxx,0}\hat I(z,x,\tau)=\max\{z+v_x/v_{xx},0\}I^(z,x,τ)=max{z+vx​/vxx​,0} there.
  3. Lemma 4.4: −vx/vxx=1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}=1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​=1/λ at x=0x=0x=0, −vx/vxx>1/λ-v_x/v_{xx}>1/\lambda−vx​/vxx​>1/λ in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, and ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c in ND\mathcal{ND}ND.
  4. Section 4.2, p. 18: for z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ, K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)K(z,\tau)\le z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)K(z,τ)≤z/(2c)−1/(2cλ).

Significance

The theorems turn an existence result for a fully nonlinear variational inequality into a usable description of the optimal policy. Claims below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ are never reinsured; a claim of size z>1/λz>1/\lambdaz>1/λ is partly ceded only when the surplus lies below a barrier that starts at the origin at maturity, stays below z/(2c)−1/(2cλ)z/(2c)-1/(2c\lambda)z/(2c)−1/(2cλ), and stays below the dividend barrier, which is itself bounded by an explicit constant independent of the horizon. For discrete claims the barriers are smooth, ordered, and separated by gaps of at most (zj−zj−1)/(2c)(z_j-z_{j-1})/(2c)(zj​−zj−1​)/(2c). The quantity −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, the optimal retention level, is shown to grow at rate at least 2c2c2c in the surplus; this single monotonicity estimate is what makes the regions of the surplus–time plane ordered and nonoverlapping.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor Theorem 3.1 on which they rest, has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them requires the parabolic regularity statements of Lemma 4.3 (the paper's proof invokes interior Schauder estimates) and the implicit function theorem in a form that gives one-variable C1C^1C1 dependence of a level set. Statements of the boundary properties in this mission are posed for any function with the properties of Theorem 3.1, so they can be proved independently of the companion mission.

Difficulty

Most of the elementary statements reduce to a sign or a monotonicity property of −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, and the first idea is to differentiate the equation. That requires vxxxv_{xxx}vxxx​ and vxτv_{x\tau}vxτ​ to exist as classical derivatives in ND\mathcal{ND}ND, which the class of Theorem 3.1 does not provide: it gives only two xxx-derivatives and one τ\tauτ-derivative, and a weak monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​. Lemma 4.3's interior regularity is therefore not a formality but the gateway to Lemma 4.4, and its proof uses Hölder estimates for linear parabolic equations, which are not available in Mathlib.

The positivity d(τ)>0d(\tau)>0d(τ)>0 and the limit d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0 are statements about the free boundary itself, not about vvv at fixed points, and need the uniqueness part of Theorem 3.1 or a comparison argument. The strict inequalities in (4.13)–(4.14) need more than the bound ∂x(−vx/vxx)≥2c\partial_x(-v_x/v_{xx})\ge2c∂x​(−vx​/vxx​)≥2c as stated.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DynReinsDiv.Barriers. Conventions:

  • The claim law is a probability measure μ on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0; F(z)=μ((−∞,z])F(z)=\mu((-\infty,z])F(z)=μ((−∞,z]); no density is assumed. μ1,μ2\mu_1,\mu_2μ1​,μ2​ are Bochner integrals, finite under the tail condition. The standing hypothesis 0<γ<μ10<\gamma<\mu_10<γ<μ1​ is a field of the model.
  • v:R→R→Rv:\mathbb R\to\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rv:R→R→R takes (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ), and the derivatives vx vxx vt are explicit functions: they are HasDerivAt derivatives of the sections at interior points (x>0x>0x>0, 0<τ<T0<\tau<T0<τ<T) and continuous on [0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}[0,\infty)\times[0,T]\setminus\{(0,0)\}[0,∞)×[0,T]∖{(0,0)}; boundary values (at x=0x=0x=0 and τ=T\tau=Tτ=T) are the continuous extensions. "vxxx≥0v_{xxx}\ge0vxxx​≥0 in the weak sense" is monotonicity of vxxv_{xx}vxx​ in xxx, "vxτ≥0v_{x\tau}\ge0vxτ​≥0" is monotonicity of vxv_xvx​ in τ\tauτ.
  • The only hypothesis on vvv is the conclusion of Theorem 3.1, bundled as IsTheorem31Solution. The milestone conclusions (vxx<0v_{xx}<0vxx​<0, the bounds on −vx/vxx-v_x/v_{xx}−vx​/vxx​, d(0+)=0d(0+)=0d(0+)=0) are never hypotheses; with them as hypotheses Theorem 4.5 would be a short mean-value argument.
  • L\mathcal LL is the supremum over measurable retained-loss functions, not its closed form.
  • Infima and suprema of empty sets are 000 in Lean. Theorem 4.2 concludes that {x≥0:vx=1}\{x\ge0: v_x=1\}{x≥0:vx​=1} is nonempty; K(z,τ)K(z,\tau)K(z,τ) uses 000 for the empty set, as the paper does.
  • Atoms are indexed by Fin N from 000. The paper's index i0i_0i0​ is replaced by conditions on zjz_jzj​ and zj−1z_{j-1}zj−1​, which also cover laws whose atoms all lie below 1/λ1/\lambda1/λ.
  • Not formalized: d(∞)d(\infty)d(∞) (the horizon is finite; d(τ)≤x2d(\tau)\le x_2d(τ)≤x2​ for every τ≤T\tau\le Tτ≤T and every TTT carries the same content), the C∞C^\inftyC∞ regularity of ddd for bounded claims (only sketched in the paper), and the Verification Theorem 3.2.

Contributions welcome: the interior regularity of Lemma 4.3, the monotonicity estimate (4.10), and the derivation of Theorem 4.5 from the milestones.

Selected references

  • Chonghu Guan, Zuo Quan Xu, Rui Zhou, Dynamic optimal reinsurance and dividend-payout in a finite time horizon, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; read as arXiv:2008.00391v3 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.00391
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions 2: Anonymity, Order Preservation, Winner Strict Endowment Monotonicity and Local Consistency Characterize Single-Parametric RulesResearch Paper

Prize money in rank-order competitions

Tournaments, races, poker finals and sports leagues end with a ranking of the participants and a sum of prize money to be split among them. The split is usually fixed by a published schedule, and different events use very different schedules: some pay almost everything to the winner, some pay many places, some decay geometrically from one place to the next. Dietzenbacher and Kondratev (arXiv:2008.08985, published in Management Science, 2023) treat the choice of schedule axiomatically: they state fairness, solidarity and consistency properties that a prize allocation rule may satisfy and characterize the families of rules that satisfy them. Their paper has three characterization theorems. Theorem 1 (interval rules) is the subject of a companion mission; this mission formalizes Theorem 2, the characterization of single-parametric rules under local consistency.

Axiomatic characterizations of allocation rules through consistency have a long history in fair division: bankruptcy problems (Aumann and Maschler, 1985), taxation (Young, 1987), bargaining (Lensberg, 1987) and cooperative games (Peleg, 1986; Hart and Mas-Colell, 1989); the paper's §1 surveys this literature. The paper is, by its own account, the first to apply this approach to prize allocation in rank-order competitions.

Setting

Fix a countable set UUU of at least three potential competitors. A competition (N,R,E)(N,\mathcal R,E)(N,R,E) consists of a finite set N⊆UN\subseteq UN⊆U, a ranking R:N→{1,…,∣N∣}\mathcal R:N\to\{1,\dots,|N|\}R:N→{1,…,∣N∣} (a bijection; iii is ranked above jjj when R(i)<R(j)\mathcal R(i)<\mathcal R(j)R(i)<R(j)) and a prize endowment E≥0E\ge0E≥0. For S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N the subranking RS\mathcal R_SRS​ lists SSS in the order of R\mathcal RR. A prize allocation rule φ\varphiφ assigns to each competition nonnegative prizes φi(N,R,E)\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)φi​(N,R,E), i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, with ∑i∈Nφi(N,R,E)=E\sum_{i\in N}\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=E∑i∈N​φi​(N,R,E)=E.

The axioms of Theorem 2 are:

  • anonymity: the prize depends only on ∣N∣|N|∣N∣, the position and EEE, not on who the competitors are;
  • order preservation: a higher-ranked competitor never receives less than a lower-ranked one;
  • winner strict endowment monotonicity: when EEE increases, nobody receives less, and the winner receives strictly more;
  • local consistency: if a block SSS of consecutively ranked competitors (the condition ∣R(i)−R(j)∣≤∣S∣−1|\mathcal R(i)-\mathcal R(j)|\le|S|-1∣R(i)−R(j)∣≤∣S∣−1 for all i,j∈Si,j\in Si,j∈S) re-divides the total prize it received, using the rule on the reduced competition (S,RS,∑j∈Sφj(N,R,E))(S,\mathcal R_S,\sum_{j\in S}\varphi_j(N,\mathcal R,E))(S,RS​,∑j∈S​φj​(N,R,E)), each member gets the same prize as before.

A representation is a continuous, non-decreasing f:R+→R+f:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+f:R+​→R+​ with f(x)≤xf(x)\le xf(x)≤x. The single-parametric rule with representation fff pays xxx to the winner, f(x)f(x)f(x) to the runner-up, f(f(x))f(f(x))f(f(x)) to the third, and in general

φi(N,R,E)=f(R(i)−1)(x),where x≥0 solves ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)=E.\varphi_i(N,\mathcal R,E)=f^{(\mathcal R(i)-1)}(x),\qquad\text{where } x\ge0 \text{ solves } \sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)=E .φi​(N,R,E)=f(R(i)−1)(x),where x≥0 solves k=1∑∣N∣​f(k−1)(x)=E.

Equal Division (f(x)=xf(x)=xf(x)=x), Winner-Takes-All (f=0f=0f=0), Winner-Takes-Surplus (f(x)=min⁡{a,x}f(x)=\min\{a,x\}f(x)=min{a,x}) and the arithmetic rule f(x)=max⁡{0,x−1}f(x)=\max\{0,x-1\}f(x)=max{0,x−1} are examples.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 18)

φ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency  ⟺  φ is a single-parametric rule.\varphi \text{ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency} \iff \varphi \text{ is a single-parametric rule.}φ satisfies anonymity, order preservation, winner strict endowment monotonicity and local consistency⟺φ is a single-parametric rule.

Both directions are part of the goal.

Milestones, in the order the proof on pp. 31–32 uses them

  1. Converse (p. 31): every single-parametric rule satisfies the four axioms.
  2. The representation (p. 31): on a two-competitor competition, the allocation path E↦(φ1,φ2)E\mapsto(\varphi_1,\varphi_2)E↦(φ1​,φ2​) is the graph {(x,f(x))}\{(x,f(x))\}{(x,f(x))} of a well-defined representation fff.
  3. Two-competitor form (p. 31): by anonymity, the rule is the single-parametric rule with representation fff on every competition with two competitors.
  4. Propagation (pp. 31–32): if the single-parametric rule φ′\varphi'φ′ with representation fff first exceeds φ\varphiφ at position iii, then φj′≥φj\varphi'_j\ge\varphi_jφj′​≥φj​ for every j>ij>ij>i.
  5. Uniqueness (p. 32): a locally consistent rule that follows fff on two competitors coincides with φ′\varphi'φ′ everywhere.

The paper's Lemma 1 (endowment monotonicity implies endowment continuity, p. 10) is used at the start of the proof; it is formalized in the companion mission on interval rules, and the milestones here take endowment continuity as a hypothesis.

Companions

  • Existence and uniqueness of xxx (p. 18): for every representation fff, ∣N∣≥1|N|\ge1∣N∣≥1 and E≥0E\ge0E≥0 the equation ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)=E\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)=E∑k=1∣N∣​f(k−1)(x)=E has exactly one solution x≥0x\ge0x≥0.
  • Corollary 5 (p. 19): a single-parametric rule satisfies winner-loser strict order preservation iff f(x)<xf(x)<xf(x)<x for x>0x>0x>0; strict order preservation iff 0<f(x)<x0<f(x)<x0<f(x)<x for x>0x>0x>0; strict endowment monotonicity iff fff is increasing.
  • Corollary 6 (p. 20): anonymity, order preservation, endowment additivity and local consistency characterize the geometric rules φi=λR(i)−1E/∑k=1∣N∣λk−1\varphi_i=\lambda^{\mathcal R(i)-1}E/\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}\lambda^{k-1}φi​=λR(i)−1E/∑k=1∣N∣​λk−1, λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1].

Significance

Theorem 2 reduces an infinite family of allocation schedules, one for every number of competitors and every endowment, to one function of one real variable. A designer who accepts the four axioms only has to choose how the prize of one position determines the prize of the next; the schedule for every field size and every endowment then follows. Corollaries 5 and 6 translate further axioms into shape conditions on that function, and identify the geometric schedules used in practice (the paper fits one to a poker final, p. 20) as the scale-invariant case. Local consistency is the property that a league split into consecutive divisions pays every division the same as the whole league would.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. No part of it has been formalized before: the platform has no model of prize allocation rules or of consistency axioms over variable populations. The mission produces that model (competitions over a universe of competitors, subrankings, the axioms) and a machine-checked proof of the characterization, including the "readily checked" converse that the paper leaves to the reader.

Difficulty

The converse requires that the parameter xxx be well defined: the map x↦∑kf(k−1)(x)x\mapsto\sum_{k}f^{(k-1)}(x)x↦∑k​f(k−1)(x) must be shown continuous, strictly increasing and onto R+\mathbb R_+R+​, so that it can be inverted, and local consistency then requires identifying the parameter of a reduced competition with an iterate of the original one. In the forward direction the representation fff is defined only implicitly, as the second coordinate of the two-competitor allocation path; its continuity and monotonicity come from inverting the strictly increasing winner's prize E↦φ1(N,R,E)E\mapsto\varphi_1(N,\mathcal R,E)E↦φ1​(N,R,E), which needs both endowment continuity and the strict part of winner strict endowment monotonicity. Without the strict part the runner-up's prize is not a function of the winner's, and the paper's Example 5 shows that local consistency alone then does not determine the rule from its two-competitor restriction. The extension from two to many competitors is a comparison argument over positions that uses local consistency only on adjacent pairs.

Formalization scope

  • Competitions. A ranking is a duplicate-free nonempty List U, best competitor first; NNN is its set of entries and R(i)\mathcal R(i)R(i) is the 1-based position pos l i. The subranking RS\mathcal R_SRS​ is the sublist of entries in SSS. UUU is any type with decidable equality; the goal and the corollaries carry the page's standing assumptions [Countable U] and the existence of three distinct elements. Milestones that do not need them omit them.
  • Rules are functions List U → ℝ → U → ℝ. A prize allocation rule is nonnegative and exhausts EEE on every ranking and every E≥0E\ge0E≥0; values elsewhere are irrelevant, and every axiom quantifies only over rankings, E≥0E\ge0E≥0 and competitors in NNN.
  • Representations are functions on R\mathbb RR constrained on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) only: ContinuousOn and MonotoneOn on Set.Ici 0, and 0≤f(x)≤x0\le f(x)\le x0≤f(x)≤x for x≥0x\ge0x≥0. Requiring global continuity or monotonicity on R\mathbb RR would shrink the family and is not done. The sum ∑k=1∣N∣f(k−1)(x)\sum_{k=1}^{|N|}f^{(k-1)}(x)∑k=1∣N∣​f(k−1)(x) uses the iterate f^[k] with the index shifted to k=0,…,∣N∣−1k=0,\dots,|N|-1k=0,…,∣N∣−1; "xxx is chosen such that" is an existential, and uniqueness of xxx is a separate item.
  • Trivializing encodings ruled out. The rule is defined on every competition over UUU, not on a fixed competitor set; local consistency ranges over exactly the blocks of consecutive positions (using full consistency instead would make the "if" direction false for most fff); the goal is a biconditional; the family requires continuity of fff and is not restricted to a closed form.
  • Infrastructure. The model and the axioms shared with the companion missions on interval and parametric rules are one common set of definitions; this mission adds three: local consistency, single-parametric rules, and geometric rules. Lemma 1 and the facts about inverting a continuous strictly increasing function on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any item, and of the companions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. J. Dietzenbacher and A. Y. Kondratev, Fair and Consistent Prize Allocation in Competitions, arXiv:2008.08985v2, 2021; Management Science, 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.08985 , https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4520
  • R. J. Aumann and M. Maschler, Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud, Journal of Economic Theory 36, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(85)90102-4
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost IV: Low Switching Cost, Control-Band Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships are dynamic contracts in which the principal cannot observe the agent's effort, only its noisy consequences. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study such a relationship when the principal can suspend the agent and must pay a fixed switching cost to restart work. Suspension is a punishment that does not end the relationship, and it is used in practice for platform workers, contractors and franchisees. The paper shows that, when the switching cost and the revenue are low, the optimal contract has a control-band structure: the agent's promised utility is kept inside an interval, the agent is suspended when it falls below the lower end, and work resumes at the upper end. Two-threshold policies of this kind are standard in optimal switching problems with switching costs (Duckworth and Zervos, 2001; Vath and Pham, 2007), whose verification arguments the paper compares with its own.

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing the analytic core of the paper. It covers the low-switching-cost region (Area III of the paper's Figure 2).

Setting

A Poisson process of arrivals brings revenue RRR each. The base arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; if the agent works, at cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit of time, the rate becomes μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, restarting work costs K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and the agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. The constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Vˉ(w)=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wr.\beta=\frac b{\Delta\mu},\quad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}\rho,\quad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}r,\quad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}r,\quad \bar V(w)=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)w}r .β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Vˉ(w)=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)w​.

The promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0 is the state. For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with left derivative f′f'f′, the paper's operators are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_If)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾,(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu,(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​,

for the working state III and the suspended state ∅\emptyset∅. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K and VI(0),V∅(0)≥v‾V_I(0),V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0),V∅​(0)≥v​.

Two families of functions enter. In the suspended state, Vc(w)=v‾+w+c wr/ρV_c(w)=\underline v+w+c\,w^{r/\rho}Vc​(w)=v​+w+cwr/ρ (24) solves A∅V=0\mathcal A_\emptyset V=0A∅​V=0 with V(0)=v‾V(0)=\underline vV(0)=v​. In the working state, for w~<wˉ\tilde w<\bar ww~<wˉ, Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is the C1C^1C1 solution of the delay differential equation (25), in which V(w)V(w)V(w) is coupled to the look-ahead value V((w+β)∧w~)V((w+\beta)\wedge\tilde w)V((w+β)∧w~), with Vw~=Vˉ(w~)V_{\tilde w}=\bar V(\tilde w)Vw~​=Vˉ(w~) beyond w~\tilde ww~; Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is its concavification (Lemma 2), linear below a threshold wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~). Lemma 3's w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ is the unique w~\tilde ww~ with Vw~(0)=v‾\mathcal V_{\tilde w}(0)=\underline vVw~​(0)=v​ under Condition 1.

The parameter regions are Condition 1 (μ≥ρ−r\mu\ge\rho-rμ≥ρ−r or R<R^R<\hat RR<R^), Condition 2 (its negation) and Condition 3: Condition 1 and K<Kˉ1K<\bar K_1K<Kˉ1​, or Condition 2 and K<K‾K<\underline KK<K​, with R^\hat RR^ (28), Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ (K1) and K‾\underline KK​ (33) explicit thresholds.

The paper uses three different hats: Definition 1's payment threshold w^\hat ww^, Lemma 3's upright w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, and Proposition 6's bold w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^, the upper end of the control band.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7, first claim

Under Condition 3 there are parameters (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) satisfying Proposition 6 such that

VI(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑ‾Vw^(w),w≥ϑ‾,V∅(w)={Vc(w),w<ϑˉVw^(w)−K,w≥ϑˉ(46)V_I(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\underline\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w),&w\ge\underline\vartheta\end{cases},\qquad V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}V_{\mathsf c}(w),&w<\bar\vartheta\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(w)-K,&w\ge\bar\vartheta\end{cases}\qquad(46)VI​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w),​w<ϑ​w≥ϑ​​,V∅​(w)={Vc​(w),Vw^​(w)−K,​w<ϑˉw≥ϑˉ​(46)

satisfy (20)–(22).

Proposition 6

Under Condition 3 there is (c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ‾)(\mathsf c,\hat{\mathbf w},\bar\vartheta,\underline\vartheta)(c,w^,ϑˉ,ϑ​) with c>0\mathsf c>0c>0, ϑ‾<ϑˉ<w^\underline\vartheta<\bar\vartheta<\hat{\mathbf w}ϑ​<ϑˉ<w^ and value matching and smooth pasting at both thresholds:

Vw^(ϑ‾)=Vc(ϑ‾),Vw^′(ϑ‾)=Vc′(ϑ‾),Vw^(ϑˉ)=Vc(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′(ϑˉ)=Vc′(ϑˉ)>1.\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\underline\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\underline\vartheta),\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}(\bar\vartheta)+K,\quad \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}'(\bar\vartheta)=V_{\mathsf c}'(\bar\vartheta)>1 .Vw^​(ϑ​)=Vc​(ϑ​),Vw^′​(ϑ​)=Vc′​(ϑ​),Vw^​(ϑˉ)=Vc​(ϑˉ)+K,Vw^′​(ϑˉ)=Vc′​(ϑˉ)>1.

Milestones

Lemma EC.4 (the first step of the EC.3.9 construction), Proposition 6, and the two hardest parts of (20) at the constructed tuple: Lemma EC.12 (A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0 on [ϑˉ,w^)[\bar\vartheta,\hat{\mathbf w})[ϑˉ,w^)) and Lemma EC.13 (AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0 below ϑ‾\underline\varthetaϑ​). The other steps of the construction are posed as further statements of the mission without milestone status: Lemma EC.7 (the root of ψ=K\psi=Kψ=K under Condition 1), Lemma EC.8 and Lemma EC.11 (the Condition 2 counterparts of EC.4 and EC.7).

Significance

Proposition 7 is the analytic certificate behind the paper's Theorem 5: combined with the verification Theorem 1, it shows that the control-band contract is optimal in the low-cost region, and that the principal's value is V∅(w)−wV_\emptyset(w)-wV∅​(w)−w. Without it the third case of the paper's main Theorem 2 is unproved. The construction of Proposition 6 also gives a computable description of the band, which the paper uses for its numerical illustrations.

The results are proved in the paper's e-companion; none of them has a machine-checked proof. This mission states the analytic part as Lean targets. The delay-ODE layer (existence, uniqueness and shape of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​) is shared with the first mission of the series, and Proposition 7's proof depends on it. The stochastic contract model, the verification theorem and the optimality Theorems 1–5 are not formalized in this series.

Difficulty

Each piece of (20)–(22) is a one-variable inequality, but the functions are not explicit. Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathbf w}}Vw^​ is defined through a delay equation, and the band's endpoints are defined implicitly through four nested steps: matching at θ‾\underline\thetaθ​, a range bound θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, an upper threshold θˉ(θ‾)\bar\theta(\underline\theta)θˉ(θ​) and a root of a gap function ψ\psiψ. The natural argument, convexity or concavity of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ on the suspension region, fails: on [0,ϑ‾)[0,\underline\vartheta)[0,ϑ​) the function AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ mixes VcV_{\mathsf c}Vc​ with the look-ahead value VI(w+β)V_I(w+\beta)VI​(w+β) and is not convex (p. 28), so the convexity arguments of the switching literature do not apply. The paper's proof of this single inequality occupies EC.3.12, with eight auxiliary lemmas.

Formalization scope

Functions are ℝ → ℝ and every statement quantifies over w≥0w\ge0w≥0. The standing assumptions are 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ and Assumption 1; μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are disclosed additions. Conventions:

  • f′f'f′ in AI,A∅\mathcal A_I,\mathcal A_\emptysetAI​,A∅​ is the left derivative; derivatives of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ are taken within R+\mathbb R_+R+​.
  • (20) is posed for w>0w>0w>0: at 000 the left derivative does not exist and Vc′(0+)=+∞V_{\mathsf c}'(0^+)=+\inftyVc′​(0+)=+∞.
  • Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is a solution of (25)–(26) chosen when one exists; wˇ\check wwˇ, w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​, θ‾0\underline\theta^0θ​0, θˉ\bar\thetaθˉ are infima or suprema of sets the paper describes; w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), C(θ‾)C(\underline\theta)C(θ​) are chosen matching pairs.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" is strict.
  • K‾\underline KK​ (33) uses the corrected bracket ((ρ−μ)/ρ)β((\rho-\mu)/\rho)\beta((ρ−μ)/ρ)β in place of the printed (r/ρ)β(r/\rho)\beta(r/ρ)β; the printed form contradicts the proof's (EC.69).
  • Proposition 6's "w^<w^\hat{\mathbf w}<\hat{\mathrm w}w^<w^" is read as w^<wˉ\hat{\mathbf w}<\bar ww^<wˉ in the Condition 2 case, where w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ does not exist; 0<ϑ‾0<\underline\vartheta0<ϑ​ is stated.
  • The goal is existential over Proposition 6 tuples. Lemmas EC.12 and EC.13 are stated at the tuple constructed in EC.3.9, in both cases of Condition 3; EC.13 is posed on (0,ϑ‾)(0,\underline\vartheta)(0,ϑ​).
  • Lemma EC.11's second limit is printed at 000; it is stated at θ‾˘\breve{\underline\theta}θ​˘​, as the proof computes it.

The tuple is never defined by the property that (46) satisfies (20)–(22); the construction definitions are Steps 1–4 of EC.3.9 only, and the goal requires all of Proposition 6's conclusions. The second claim of Proposition 7, (48) on the contract's utility, is out of scope.

A complete development needs existence, uniqueness and regularity for the linear delay equation (25) (reusable for other delay problems), implicit-function arguments for w~(θ‾)\tilde w(\underline\theta)w~(θ​), and the sign analysis of EC.3.12. Proofs of single milestones, and of the delay-ODE lemmas of the series' first mission, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845
  • K. Duckworth, M. Zervos, A model for investment decisions with switching costs, Annals of Applied Probability 11(1), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/998926992
  • V. L. Vath, H. Pham, Explicit solution to an optimal switching problem in the two-regime case, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 46(2), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/050638783
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AnalysisControl TheoryEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost I: Condition 1, High Switching Cost, Not-Hiring Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships let a firm pause an agent instead of firing them: a sales representative who brings in no customers for a while is suspended, a contractor is laid off for a season and recalled. Pausing is not free. Every restart carries a switching cost KKK (re-training, re-establishing a territory, setting up the work environment), so a principal who suspends too readily pays for it. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study the optimal dynamic contract for this trade-off in continuous time, building on the Poisson-arrival moral-hazard model of Sun and Tian (2018). Their main result (Theorem 2) splits the parameter space into three regimes: never hire, hire and keep the agent working forever, and a control-band contract with suspension episodes of fixed length. This mission covers the first regime under the paper's Condition 1.

Setting

A principal earns a revenue RRR per arrival of a Poisson process. Without effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; an agent who works, at private cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit time, raises it to μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, every start of work costs K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and the agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. The derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ(w)=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wr.\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\qquad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\qquad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\qquad \bar V(w)=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)w}{r}.β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ(w)=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)w​.

The state of a contract is the agent's promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0. The paper's verification theorem reduces optimality to a pair of functions: VIV_IVI​ for the working state and V∅V_\emptysetV∅​ for the suspended state. For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, with f′f'f′ its left derivative, the operators are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_If)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾,(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu,(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​,

and (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, and VI(0)≥v‾V_I(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0)≥v​, V∅(0)≥v‾V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vV∅​(0)≥v​.

The working-state candidate is built from the delay differential equation (25): for w~∈[0,wˉ)\tilde w\in[0,\bar w)w~∈[0,wˉ), Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is the C1C^1C1 function on [0,w~][0,\tilde w][0,w~] with

(μ+r)V(w)−μV((w+β)∧w~)+ρ(wˉ−w)V′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w=0,(\mu+r)V(w)-\mu V\big((w+\beta)\wedge\tilde w\big)+\rho(\bar w-w)V'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w=0,(μ+r)V(w)−μV((w+β)∧w~)+ρ(wˉ−w)V′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w=0,

and V(w)=Vˉ(w~)V(w)=\bar V(\tilde w)V(w)=Vˉ(w~) for w≥w~w\ge\tilde ww≥w~. Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ may be convex near 000; wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~) is the point up to which Vw~′′>0V_{\tilde w}''>0Vw~′′​>0, and the concavification Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ replaces Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ on [0,wˇ(w~))[0,\check w(\tilde w))[0,wˇ(w~)) by its tangent line at wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~). Condition 1 is "μ≥ρ−r\mu\ge\rho-rμ≥ρ−r or R<R^R<\hat RR<R^" with

R^=[cb+(ρ−r)μΔμ(ρ−r−μ)⋅ρ−μρ]β.\hat R=\Big[\frac cb+\frac{(\rho-r)\mu}{\Delta\mu(\rho-r-\mu)}\cdot\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\Big]\beta.R^=[bc​+Δμ(ρ−r−μ)(ρ−r)μ​⋅ρρ−μ​]β.

Under it there is a unique w^∈[0,wˉ)\hat{\mathrm w}\in[0,\bar w)w^∈[0,wˉ) with Vw^(0)=v‾\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}(0)=\underline vVw^​(0)=v​ (Lemma 3). Three hats occur in the paper: w^\hat ww^ of Definition 1 (a payment threshold), w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ of Lemma 3 (used here), and w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^ of Proposition 6 (not used here). For K<Vˉ(w^)−v‾K<\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK<Vˉ(w^)−v​, Lemma 4 gives a tangent pair (θˉK,mK)(\bar\theta^K,m^K)(θˉK,mK): the line mKw+v‾m^Kw+\underline vmKw+v​ touches Vw^−K\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}-KVw^​−K at θˉK\bar\theta^KθˉK. Finally Kˉ1=inf⁡{K∈(0,Vˉ(w^)−v‾]∣mK<1}\bar K_1=\inf\{K\in(0,\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline v]\mid m^K<1\}Kˉ1​=inf{K∈(0,Vˉ(w^)−v​]∣mK<1} (K1).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 22)

Under Condition 1 and Kˉ1≤K≤Vˉ(w^)−v‾\bar K_1\le K\le\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vKˉ1​≤K≤Vˉ(w^)−v​, for the pair (θˉK,mK)(\bar\theta^K,m^K)(θˉK,mK) of (29),

VI=Vw^,V∅(w)={mKw+v‾,w≤θˉK,Vw^(w)−K,w>θˉK,V_I=\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}},\qquad V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}m^Kw+\underline v,&w\le\bar\theta^K,\\ \mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}(w)-K,&w>\bar\theta^K,\end{cases}VI​=Vw^​,V∅​(w)={mKw+v​,Vw^​(w)−K,​w≤θˉK,w>θˉK,​

satisfy (20)–(22).

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.2: existence and uniqueness of Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, w~∈[0,wˉ)\tilde w\in[0,\bar w)w~∈[0,wˉ).
  2. Lemma EC.2(iii)–(iv): Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ increasing; Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ decreasing and Vw~′V_{\tilde w}'Vw~′​ increasing in w~\tilde ww~.
  3. Lemma 2(i): the sign pattern of Vw~′′V_{\tilde w}''Vw~′′​ around wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~), and wˇ(w~)≤(1−r/ρ)β\check w(\tilde w)\le(1-r/\rho)\betawˇ(w~)≤(1−r/ρ)β.
  4. Lemma 2(ii)–(iii): Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ increasing and concave; comparison in w~\tilde ww~.
  5. Lemma 3: w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ exists and is unique; Vw^′(0)>1\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}'(0)>1Vw^′​(0)>1 when wˇ(w^)>0\check w(\hat{\mathrm w})>0wˇ(w^)>0.
  6. Proposition 2: for K≥Vˉ(w^)−v‾K\ge\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK≥Vˉ(w^)−v​, (Vw^,v‾)(\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}},\underline v)(Vw^​,v​) satisfies (20)–(22).
  7. Lemma 4: tangent pairs exist; θˉK\bar\theta^KθˉK increases and mKm^KmK decreases in KKK; θˉK→wˇ(w^)\bar\theta^K\to\check w(\hat{\mathrm w})θˉK→wˇ(w^) as K↓0K\downarrow0K↓0.

Significance

Propositions 2 and 3 are the analytic certificates behind Theorem 2(i): combined with the verification theorem (Theorem 1), they show that under Condition 1 and K≥Kˉ1K\ge\bar K_1K≥Kˉ1​ the principal's utility from any incentive-compatible contract promising www is at most V∅(w)−w≤v‾V_\emptyset(w)-w\le\underline vV∅​(w)−w≤v​, so never hiring the agent is optimal, and Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ is exactly the switching-cost threshold of that regime. The same objects (Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​, the tangent pairs) reappear in the low-cost control-band regime (Propositions 6–7), so a formal development of the delay ODE and its concavification is reused there.

The paper proves all these results; none is formalized. The mission formalizes the deterministic half of the guess-and-verify argument. The stochastic contract model (point processes, promise keeping, incentive compatibility), Theorem 1 and the optimality theorems are outside its scope.

Difficulty

The obvious approach, verifying (20)–(22) by direct computation, works for the linear pieces but not for Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​, which has no closed form: (25) is a delay equation solved backwards from w~\tilde ww~ in steps of length β\betaβ, and the closed form (EC.52) of the paper holds only on the last step [(w~−β)+,w~][(\tilde w-\beta)^+,\tilde w][(w~−β)+,w~]. Every property of Vw^\mathcal V_{\hat{\mathrm w}}Vw^​ used in the goal (monotonicity, the single change of convexity, the comparison in w~\tilde ww~ that makes w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ unique) has to be extracted from the equation itself, across the kinks of w↦(w+β)∧w~w\mapsto(w+\beta)\wedge\tilde ww↦(w+β)∧w~. On the second branch of V∅V_\emptysetV∅​, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0 is not a pointwise identity either: it requires mK≤1m^K\le1mK≤1, which is where K≥Kˉ1K\ge\bar K_1K≥Kˉ1​ enters.

Formalization scope

  • Parameters form a structure with real fields; the standing assumptions 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ, RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c are a hypothesis of every theorem. μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are disclosed additions (a rate and a cost).
  • Functions are ℝ → ℝ; every statement quantifies over w≥0w\ge0w≥0 only. In AI,A∅\mathcal A_I,\mathcal A_\emptysetAI​,A∅​, f′f'f′ is the left derivative (derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, the paper's p. 15 convention); in statements about Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ and Vw~\mathcal V_{\tilde w}Vw~​, derivatives are taken within R+\mathbb R_+R+​; in (25), within [0,w~][0,\tilde w][0,w~].
  • (20) is required for w>0w>0w>0: at w=0w=0w=0 a left derivative of a function on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ does not exist. (21) and (22) are as printed.
  • Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ is a chosen solution of (25)–(26) (Lemma EC.2 is the milestone that makes this meaningful); wˇ(w~)\check w(\tilde w)wˇ(w~) is a supremum defined through the sign of V′′V''V′′, and w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ an infimum; Kˉ1\bar K_1Kˉ1​ is an infimum. None is defined by the property a theorem asserts about it.
  • The goal holds for every pair satisfying (29); the pair is unique, and at K=Vˉ(w^)−v‾K=\bar V(\hat{\mathrm w})-\underline vK=Vˉ(w^)−v​ it is (w^,0)(\hat{\mathrm w},0)(w^,0). The second branch of (30) is extended beyond w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^, as the paper's proof uses.
  • "Increasing/decreasing" mean strictly. The contract-utility claim U(Γ‾)=v‾U(\underline\Gamma)=\underline vU(Γ​)=v​ of Proposition 2 is not stated.
  • Ruled out: weakening (20)–(22) (dropping the upper bound KKK in (21), or (22)), or defining Vw~V_{\tilde w}Vw~​ by its closed form (EC.52), which is valid only near w~\tilde ww~.

Needed infrastructure: existence and uniqueness for linear ODEs with a terminal condition, extended step by step across a delay; one-sided derivatives of piecewise functions; concavity from sign conditions on second derivatives. Proofs of the milestones, and reusable lemmas about delay equations of this form, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845 (cited from the authors' manuscript with e-companion).
  • P. Sun, F. Tian, Optimal Contract to Induce Continued Effort, Management Science 64(9), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2795
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AnalysisOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Sample-Driven Optimal Stopping: From the Secretary Problem to the i.i.d. Prophet Inequality I: Feasible Solutions of the Continuous Stopping LP Can Be Improved to Threshold FormResearch Paper

Motivation

Two classical online selection problems sit at opposite ends of an information spectrum. In the secretary problem items arrive in uniformly random order, only their relative ranks are observed, and the best possible probability of stopping on the best item tends to 1/e1/e1/e. In the i.i.d. prophet inequality the values are independent draws from a known distribution, and the best guarantee against the expected maximum is the constant ≈0.745\approx 0.745≈0.745 of Hill and Kertz (1982), shown tight by Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk and Vredeveld (2017).

Correa, Cristi, Epstein and Soto (arXiv:2011.06516) interpolate between the two with the ppp-sample-driven optimal stopping problem. Each of NNN items is sampled independently with probability ppp; the decision maker observes the relative rankings of the sampled items, then faces the remaining items online, observing relative rankings, and makes irrevocable stop/continue decisions. Stopping on the item of overall rank iii earns a reward YiY_iYi​, with Y1≥Y2≥⋯Y_1\ge Y_2\ge\cdotsY1​≥Y2​≥⋯. At p=0p=0p=0 and Y=(1,0,0,… )Y=(1,0,0,\dots)Y=(1,0,0,…) this is the secretary problem; for adversarial YYY the optimal guarantee tends to 0.7450.7450.745 as p→1p\to1p→1, the i.i.d. prophet constant.

For known YYY, the paper writes a linear program over the stopping probabilities of rank-based algorithms (after Buchbinder, Jain and Singh, 2014) and takes its limit as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞. The analysis rests on one structural result, Theorem 2: this limiting program can be restricted, without loss, to solutions of an explicit threshold form, so that the optimal algorithm stops on an item of current rank iii after a time tit_iti​. This mission is that theorem.

Setting

Fix p∈[0,1)p\in[0,1)p∈[0,1). Time runs over [p,1][p,1][p,1] (time ttt is the fraction of the NNN items seen so far; the sample accounts for the first fraction ppp in the limit), and ranks ℓ=1,2,…\ell=1,2,\dotsℓ=1,2,… refer to the relative rank of the current item among all items seen so far. A candidate solution is a function q(t,ℓ)q(t,\ell)q(t,ℓ), the density of stopping at time ttt on an item of relative rank ℓ\ellℓ.

The cumulative mass of qqq is Mq(t)=∫pt∑s≥1q(τ,s) dτM_q(t)=\int_p^t\sum_{s\ge1}q(\tau,s)\,d\tauMq​(t)=∫pt​∑s≥1​q(τ,s)dτ. A solution is feasible for the continuous linear program CLPp_pp​ when q(t,ℓ)≥0q(t,\ell)\ge0q(t,ℓ)≥0, each q(⋅,ℓ)q(\cdot,\ell)q(⋅,ℓ) is integrable on [p,1][p,1][p,1], and

t q(t,ℓ)+Mq(t)≤1∀t∈[p,1], ∀ℓ≥1.t\,q(t,\ell)+M_q(t)\le1\qquad\forall t\in[p,1],\ \forall\ell\ge1 .tq(t,ℓ)+Mq​(t)≤1∀t∈[p,1], ∀ℓ≥1.

For k≥1k\ge1k≥1 the negative-binomial term is nbk,ℓ(t)=∑j=ℓk(j−1ℓ−1)(1−t)j−ℓtℓ\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)=\sum_{j=\ell}^{k}\binom{j-1}{\ell-1}(1-t)^{j-\ell}t^{\ell}nbk,ℓ​(t)=∑j=ℓk​(ℓ−1j−1​)(1−t)j−ℓtℓ, the probability that a NegativeBinomial(ℓ,t)(\ell,t)(ℓ,t) variable is at most kkk, and

Fk(q)=∑ℓ=1k∫p1q(t,ℓ) nbk,ℓ(t) dt.F_k(q)=\sum_{\ell=1}^{k}\int_p^1 q(t,\ell)\,\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)\,dt .Fk​(q)=ℓ=1∑k​∫p1​q(t,ℓ)nbk,ℓ​(t)dt.

Fk(q)F_k(q)Fk​(q) is the limit of the probability that the algorithm stops on an item of overall rank at most kkk. The objective of CLPp_pp​ is Y1−∑k≥1(Yk−Yk+1)(1−Fk(q))Y_1-\sum_{k\ge1}(Y_k-Y_{k+1})(1-F_k(q))Y1​−∑k≥1​(Yk​−Yk+1​)(1−Fk​(q)) for a non-increasing sequence YYY, so any solution that increases every FkF_kFk​ is at least as good.

A threshold sequence is a non-decreasing (ti)i≥0⊆[p,1](t_i)_{i\ge0}\subseteq[p,1](ti​)i≥0​⊆[p,1] with t0=pt_0=pt0​=p; put Ti=∏j=1itjT_i=\prod_{j=1}^{i}t_jTi​=∏j=1i​tj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 8)

For every feasible qqq there are a feasible q∗q^*q∗ and a threshold sequence (ti)(t_i)(ti​) with Fk(q∗)≥Fk(q)F_k(q^*)\ge F_k(q)Fk​(q∗)≥Fk​(q) for all k≥1k\ge1k≥1, such that for every ℓ≥1\ell\ge1ℓ≥1 and t∈[p,1)t\in[p,1)t∈[p,1)

t q∗(t,ℓ)+∫pt∑s≥1q∗(τ,s) dτ=1  (t≥tℓ),q∗(t,ℓ)=0  (t<tℓ),(5–6)t\,q^*(t,\ell)+\int_p^t\sum_{s\ge1}q^*(\tau,s)\,d\tau=1\ \ (t\ge t_\ell),\qquad q^*(t,\ell)=0\ \ (t<t_\ell),\tag{5–6}tq∗(t,ℓ)+∫pt​s≥1∑​q∗(τ,s)dτ=1  (t≥tℓ​),q∗(t,ℓ)=0  (t<tℓ​),(5–6) q∗(t,ℓ)={Ti/ti+1t∈[ti,ti+1), ℓ≤i,0else.(7)q^*(t,\ell)=\begin{cases}T_i/t^{i+1}&t\in[t_i,t_{i+1}),\ \ell\le i,\\0&\text{else.}\end{cases}\tag{7}q∗(t,ℓ)={Ti​/ti+10​t∈[ti​,ti+1​), ℓ≤i,else.​(7)

Milestones

  1. Lemma 17 (p. 28): nbk,ℓ\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}nbk,ℓ​ is non-decreasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1] for 1≤ℓ≤k1\le\ell\le k1≤ℓ≤k.
  2. Lemma 18 (p. 29): nbk,ℓ(t)\mathrm{nb}_{k,\ell}(t)nbk,ℓ​(t) is non-increasing in ℓ≥1\ell\ge1ℓ≥1 for t∈[0,1]t\in[0,1]t∈[0,1].
  3. (8) (p. 9): one mass-moving step qn−1↦qnq_{n-1}\mapsto q_nqn−1​↦qn​, which pushes each component to the right up to the envelope 1t(1−Mqn−1(t))\frac1t(1-M_{q_{n-1}}(t))t1​(1−Mqn−1​​(t)), keeps each component's mass, satisfies Mqn≤Mqn−1M_{q_n}\le M_{q_{n-1}}Mqn​​≤Mqn−1​​ in the form (8), and preserves feasibility.
  4. Fk(qn−1)≤Fk(qn)F_k(q_{n-1})\le F_k(q_n)Fk​(qn−1​)≤Fk​(qn​) (p. 9) for the same step.
  5. Uniqueness (p. 10): for fixed thresholds, (5)–(6) have at most one feasible solution on [p,1)[p,1)[p,1).
  6. Existence (p. 10): the function (7) satisfies (5)–(6).

Significance

Theorem 2 turns an infinite-dimensional linear program over functions of two variables into the reduced problem RPp_pp​, an optimization over a single non-decreasing sequence of thresholds. Every quantitative result of the paper is read off RPp_pp​: the optimal ratio for each ppp, its limit as p→1p\to1p→1 (Theorem 8, mission II of this series) and the explicit lower bound α∗p\alpha^*pα∗p (Theorem 9, mission III). It also identifies the optimal rank-based algorithms as threshold rules: accept the current item if it is among the iii best seen so far, where iii grows at the times tit_iti​.

The result is proved in the paper. It has not been formalized, and neither has any part of the continuous-LP approach to secretary and prophet problems. The formal development produces a reusable layer: continuous stopping LPs with extended-real cumulative constraints, monotonicity of negative-binomial distribution functions in both parameters, and a rearrangement argument for integrals against monotone weights.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is to improve qqq greedily: push each component's mass as far right as the constraint allows. One step is easy, but the step changes the constraint itself, since the envelope 1t(1−Mq(t))\frac1t(1-M_q(t))t1​(1−Mq​(t)) depends on all components. The proof iterates, needs the thresholds tℓ(n)t_\ell(n)tℓ​(n) to be monotone in nnn, and must pass to a limit q∞q_\inftyq∞​ in L1L^1L1 with a dominating function that exists only because the smallest threshold is bounded away from 000. The limit thresholds need not be monotone in ℓ\ellℓ, and the components must then be reordered using Lemma 18. Finally, (5)–(6) are an integral equation in which each component depends on the sum of all others; identifying their unique solution with (7) needs both a uniqueness argument for a linear ODE and a telescoping computation.

Formalization scope

  • A solution is a function q : ℝ → ℕ → ℝ, a representative of an element of L1([p,1]×N)L^1([p,1]\times\mathbb N)L1([p,1]×N). Ranks, kkk, iii, jjj are 1-based; q(⋅,0)q(\cdot,0)q(⋅,0) is never used. Constraints are imposed pointwise for all ttt, as printed.
  • The cumulative mass Mq(t)M_q(t)Mq​(t) is the lower Lebesgue integral of ∑s≥1q(τ,s)\sum_{s\ge1}q(\tau,s)∑s≥1​q(τ,s) in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], never a Bochner integral of a real series, which Lean would set to 000 on divergent data.
  • Integrability of each q(⋅,ℓ)q(\cdot,\ell)q(⋅,ℓ) is part of feasibility, so FkF_kFk​ is never a junk value.
  • Equations (5)–(7) are imposed on [p,1)[p,1)[p,1), not on [p,1][p,1][p,1]. At the single point t=1t=1t=1 the printed (5) and (7) contradict each other whenever finitely many thresholds are below 111 (already for q=0q=0q=0). Feasibility of q∗q^*q∗ is required on all of [p,1][p,1][p,1].
  • The threshold intervals [ti,ti+1)[t_i,t_{i+1})[ti​,ti+1​) are half-open, as in (7); they are pairwise disjoint because (ti)(t_i)(ti​) is non-decreasing.
  • "Increasing" in Lemma 17 and "decreasing" in Lemma 18 are read as non-decreasing and non-increasing.
  • The mass-moving step (milestones 3–4) takes the thresholds tℓ(n)t_\ell(n)tℓ​(n) as hypotheses satisfying their defining equation, and requires them to be positive (this only matters at p=0p=0p=0, where the paper's equation already forces it).
  • Milestone 6 assumes t1>0t_1>0t1​>0, and claims (5) at ttt when t<tit<t_it<ti​ for some iii or when Tm/tmm→0T_m/t_m^m\to0Tm​/tmm​→0; on the page these conditions are implicit, and without them the claim fails.
  • A statement of Theorem 2 that keeps only "there is a feasible q∗q^*q∗ with Fk(q∗)≥Fk(q)F_k(q^*)\ge F_k(q)Fk​(q∗)≥Fk​(q)" is trivial (q∗=qq^*=qq∗=q); equations (5)–(7) are part of the goal and must not be dropped.
  • Mathlib supplies interval and lower Lebesgue integrals, series in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and binomial coefficients. Contributions welcome: the negative-binomial lemmas, the rearrangement inequality for monotone weights, and a Grönwall-type uniqueness argument for the integral equation.

Selected references

  • J. Correa, A. Cristi, B. Epstein, J. A. Soto, Sample-Driven Optimal Stopping: From the Secretary Problem to the i.i.d. Prophet Inequality, arXiv:2011.06516v2, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.06516
  • T. P. Hill, R. P. Kertz, Comparisons of stop rule and supremum expectations of i.i.d. random variables, Annals of Probability 10(2), 1982. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993861
  • J. Correa, P. Foncea, R. Hoeksma, T. Oosterwijk, T. Vredeveld, Posted price mechanisms for a random stream of customers, ACM EC 2017. https://doi.org/10.1145/3033274.3085137
  • N. Buchbinder, K. Jain, M. Singh, Secretary problems via linear programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0604
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Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost III: Condition 2, Medium Switching Cost, Always-Work Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service relationships pay an agent per unit of output whose arrival is random: a salesperson closing deals, a call-centre worker resolving tickets, a contractor delivering jobs. When effort is unobservable, the classical tool for keeping an agent motivated is the threat of termination after poor performance. In practice firms often use a milder punishment, suspension: the agent is sent home for a while and later called back. Restarting work is not free, and each restart costs the firm a fixed switching cost.

P. Cao, P. Sun and F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost (Management Science, 2024), characterise the optimal dynamic contract in this setting. The optimal contract depends on the size of the switching cost: when it is large the firm should not hire, when it is moderate the firm should keep the agent working forever, and when it is small the firm uses a control-band contract with suspension episodes. Their proof is "guess and verify": a stochastic verification theorem (their Theorem 1) turns any pair of functions satisfying a system of quasi-variational inequalities into an upper bound on the principal's value, and Propositions 2–7 exhibit such pairs in each parameter region.

This mission formalizes the certificate for the medium-switching-cost region under Condition 2 (Area II of the paper's Figure 2), where the agent is never suspended.

Setting

The principal faces a Poisson stream of arrivals, each worth revenue RRR. Without effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; an agent who exerts effort, at cost b>0b>0b>0 per unit time, raises it to μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. The principal's total cost rate while the agent works is c≥bc\ge bc≥b, every start of work costs a switching cost K>0K>0K>0, and the principal and agent discount at rates 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c.

The paper's derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ,\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\quad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\quad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\quad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}{r},\quad \bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w,β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Kˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ,

together with the revenue thresholds R^\hat RR^ (28) and Rˉ\bar RRˉ (34) and the switching-cost threshold K‾\underline KK​ (33). Condition 2 is μ<ρ−r\mu<\rho-rμ<ρ−r and R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^: the agent is much more impatient than the principal and revenue is high.

The state variable is the agent's promised utility w≥0w\ge0w≥0. Two operators act on functions fff of www, where f′f'f′ is the left derivative:

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_I f)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾.(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu.(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​.

The first is a delay-differential operator for the working state, the second a first-order operator for the suspended state. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) when AIVI≥0\mathcal A_IV_I\ge0AI​VI​≥0, A∅V∅≥0\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset\ge0A∅​V∅​≥0, 0≤VI−V∅≤K0\le V_I-V_\emptyset\le K0≤VI​−V∅​≤K and VI(0),V∅(0)≥v‾V_I(0),V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline vVI​(0),V∅​(0)≥v​.

The suspended-state equation A∅V=0\mathcal A_\emptyset V=0A∅​V=0 with V(0)=v‾V(0)=\underline vV(0)=v​ is solved by Vc(w)=v‾+w+c wr/ρV_c(w)=\underline v+w+c\,w^{r/\rho}Vc​(w)=v​+w+cwr/ρ (24). In the region of this mission the paper builds

V∅(w)={VcK(w),w≤wˉ,Vˉ−K,w>wˉ,VI(w)={VcK(w),w≤θ‾K,Vˉ+mK(w−wˉ),θ‾K<w≤wˉ,Vˉ,w>wˉ,V_\emptyset(w)=\begin{cases}V_{c_K}(w),&w\le\bar w,\\ \bar V-K,&w>\bar w,\end{cases}\qquad V_I(w)=\begin{cases}V_{c_K}(w),&w\le\underline\theta_K,\\ \bar V+m_K(w-\bar w),&\underline\theta_K<w\le\bar w,\\ \bar V,&w>\bar w,\end{cases}V∅​(w)={VcK​​(w),Vˉ−K,​w≤wˉ,w>wˉ,​VI​(w)=⎩⎨⎧​VcK​​(w),Vˉ+mK​(w−wˉ),Vˉ,​w≤θ​K​,θ​K​<w≤wˉ,w>wˉ,​

from parameters (cK,mK,θ‾K)(c_K,m_K,\underline\theta_K)(cK​,mK​,θ​K​) chosen so that VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ pastes smoothly onto the line at θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ and ends at Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K at wˉ\bar wwˉ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (first claim)

Under Condition 2 and K∈[K‾,Kˉ2)K\in[\underline K,\bar K_2)K∈[K​,Kˉ2​), for every triple (cK,mK,θ‾K)(c_K,m_K,\underline\theta_K)(cK​,mK​,θ​K​) with θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ), cK>0c_K>0cK​>0, mK∈[ρ−rρ−r−μ,Vˉ−v‾wˉ)m_K\in[\frac{\rho-r}{\rho-r-\mu},\frac{\bar V-\underline v}{\bar w})mK​∈[ρ−r−μρ−r​,wˉVˉ−v​​) and

VcK(θ‾K)=Vˉ+mK(θ‾K−wˉ),VcK′(θ‾K)=mK,VcK(wˉ)=Vˉ−K,V_{c_K}(\underline\theta_K)=\bar V+m_K(\underline\theta_K-\bar w),\qquad V'_{c_K}(\underline\theta_K)=m_K,\qquad V_{c_K}(\bar w)=\bar V-K,VcK​​(θ​K​)=Vˉ+mK​(θ​K​−wˉ),VcK​′​(θ​K​)=mK​,VcK​​(wˉ)=Vˉ−K,

the functions VI,V∅V_I,V_\emptysetVI​,V∅​ above satisfy (20)–(22).

Milestones

  1. (EC.67): explicit C1(θ‾)C^1(\underline\theta)C1(θ​) and m(θ‾)m(\underline\theta)m(θ​) solve the value-matching and smooth-pasting equations at any θ‾∈(0,wˉ]\underline\theta\in(0,\bar w]θ​∈(0,wˉ].
  2. Lemma EC.3: ψ1(θ‾)=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ−C1(θ‾)wˉr/ρ\psi_1(\underline\theta)=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w-C^1(\underline\theta)\bar w^{r/\rho}ψ1​(θ​)=Vˉ−v​−wˉ−C1(θ​)wˉr/ρ is continuous and strictly decreasing on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ], so ψ1=K\psi_1=Kψ1​=K has a unique root θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ) for K∈(0,Kˉ2)K\in(0,\bar K_2)K∈(0,Kˉ2​); the root decreases in KKK and tends to wˉ\bar wwˉ as K↓0K\downarrow0K↓0.
  3. Lemma 5: for every K∈[K‾,Kˉ2)K\in[\underline K,\bar K_2)K∈[K​,Kˉ2​) the triple exists, and cKc_KcK​, mKm_KmK​, θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ are monotone in KKK.

Lemma 5 guarantees that the goal is not vacuous.

Significance

Proposition 5 is the analytic half of the paper's Theorem 4: combined with the verification theorem, it shows that in Area II the principal's optimal value is attained by a contract that pays the agent β\betaβ per arrival and never suspends. The threshold K‾\underline KK​ separates this region from the control-band region of Proposition 7, so the explicit formula for K‾\underline KK​ is the boundary of the phase diagram.

The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version exists. A formal proof checks a delicate sign argument near w=0w=0w=0, where VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ has infinite slope, and it checks the threshold K‾\underline KK​, whose printed formula contains an error (see Formalization scope). The paper's companion identity (41), U(Γˉ)=Vˉ−wˉ−K=V∅(wˉ)−wˉU(\bar\Gamma)=\bar V-\bar w-K=V_\emptyset(\bar w)-\bar wU(Γˉ)=Vˉ−wˉ−K=V∅​(wˉ)−wˉ, is about the utility of a contract and is not part of this mission; its deterministic half is immediate from (39).

Difficulty

The cases w∈[θ‾K,wˉ]w\in[\underline\theta_K,\bar w]w∈[θ​K​,wˉ] and w>wˉw>\bar ww>wˉ are algebraic. The difficulty is w∈(0,θ‾K)w\in(0,\underline\theta_K)w∈(0,θ​K​): there VIV_IVI​ is the curve VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​, and w+βw+\betaw+β lands beyond wˉ\bar wwˉ (Condition 2 gives β>wˉ\beta>\bar wβ>wˉ), so AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ couples the curve with the constant Vˉ\bar VVˉ. Positivity there needs more than the sign of the smooth-pasting slope: it uses the lower bound on mKm_KmK​ in (35), which is exactly where the threshold K‾\underline KK​ enters. A direct sign check at θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​ alone does not cover the interval. The existence lemma requires monotonicity of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​, whose expression mixes powers θ‾r/ρ−1\underline\theta^{r/\rho-1}θ​r/ρ−1 with a linear factor.

Formalization scope

All functions are ℝ → ℝ and every quantifier ranges over w≥0w\ge0w≥0; powers are Real.rpow. The standing assumptions 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ, RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c are one hypothesis Standing; μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0 and b>0b>0b>0 are read off the model and stated explicitly. The left derivative is derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, following the paper's convention on p. 15. Condition (20) is posed for w>0w>0w>0 only: at w=0w=0w=0 the right derivative of VcKV_{c_K}VcK​​ is +∞+\infty+∞, so the paper's (20) there is an extended-real statement and Lean's junk derivative would make it false. (21) and (22) are posed as printed.

The threshold K‾\underline KK​ of (33) is corrected: the printed bracket contains rρβ\frac r\rho\betaρr​β, but the paper's own proof identifies K‾\underline KK​ with Kˇ2\check K_2Kˇ2​ of (EC.69), which gives ρ−μρβ\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\betaρρ−μ​β. With the printed term Lemma 5 fails (for r=0.2,ρ=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,μ=0.9,μ‾=0.1r=0.2,\rho=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,\mu=0.9,\underline\mu=0.1r=0.2,ρ=1.2,b=c=1,R=5,μ=0.9,μ​=0.1, the printed value is −0.069-0.069−0.069, the corrected one 7.25337.25337.2533). Equation (36) is printed with a free www that should read θ‾K\underline\theta_Kθ​K​. The range θ‾K∈(0,wˉ)\underline\theta_K\in(0,\bar w)θ​K​∈(0,wˉ), given by the proof, is stated.

The goal quantifies over all triples satisfying Lemma 5's conclusions; such a triple is unique, so this is the paper's claim, and Lemma 5 rules out a vacuous goal. Dropping the bound KKK in (21), the condition (22), or the lower bound on mKm_KmK​ would trivialize or change the statement.

The development needs the derivative of w↦wr/ρw\mapsto w^{r/\rho}w↦wr/ρ, sign analysis of explicit real functions, and the intermediate value theorem. The Setting file is shared with the other missions of this series and will be consolidated. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome; (EC.67) is a self-contained calculus exercise.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845 (cited from the authors' manuscript and e-companion: §4.2 pp. 24–26, EC.3.7–EC.3.8 pp. ec32–ec34).
  • Y. Sannikov, A Continuous-Time Version of the Principal-Agent Problem, Review of Economic Studies 75(3), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2008.00486.x
  • B. Biais, T. Mariotti, J.-C. Rochet, S. Villeneuve, Large Risks, Limited Liability, and Dynamic Moral Hazard, Econometrica 78(1), 2010. https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA7261
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Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost II: Condition 2, High Switching Cost, Not-Hiring Value Functions Meet the Optimality ConditionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that outsource work to an agent whose effort they cannot observe often punish poor performance by suspending the relationship for a while, even though restarting costs money: a new set-up, re-training, re-mobilisation. Cao, Sun and Tian (Management Science, 2024) study this trade-off in a continuous-time principal–agent model with Poisson arrivals and a fixed switching cost paid every time work (re)starts. They characterise the optimal dynamic contract in three regimes: never hire the agent, hire and keep the agent working forever, or a control-band contract with suspension episodes of fixed length. The model extends the Poisson-arrival contracting framework of Sun and Tian (2018) by adding the switching cost.

The proof follows a guess-and-verify pattern. A stochastic verification theorem (Theorem 1 of the paper) turns any pair of functions satisfying a system of quasi-variational inequalities into an upper bound on the principal's value. Propositions 2–7 then supply such a pair in each parameter region. This mission covers one region: the agent is much more impatient than the principal (Condition 2) and the switching cost is high.

Setting

A principal earns revenue RRR per arrival of a Poisson process. Without the agent's effort the arrival rate is μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0; with effort it is μ>μ‾\mu>\underline\muμ>μ​, and effort costs the agent b>0b>0b>0 per unit of time. While the agent works, the principal's total cost rate is c≥bc\ge bc≥b. Each time work starts or restarts, the principal pays a switching cost K>0K>0K>0. The principal discounts at rate rrr and the agent at rate ρ\rhoρ, with 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ. Write Δμ=μ−μ‾\Delta\mu=\mu-\underline\muΔμ=μ−μ​. Assumption 1 is RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c.

The derived constants are

β=bΔμ,wˉ=βμρ,v‾=μ‾Rr,Vˉ=Rμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉr,Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ.\beta=\frac{b}{\Delta\mu},\qquad \bar w=\frac{\beta\mu}{\rho},\qquad \underline v=\frac{\underline\mu R}{r},\qquad \bar V=\frac{R\mu-c-(\rho-r)\bar w}{r},\qquad \bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar w .β=Δμb​,wˉ=ρβμ​,v​=rμ​R​,Vˉ=rRμ−c−(ρ−r)wˉ​,Kˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ.

The variable w≥0w\ge0w≥0 is the agent's promised utility. The revenue threshold is

R^=[cb+(ρ−r)μΔμ(ρ−r−μ)⋅ρ−μρ]β.\hat R=\Big[\frac cb+\frac{(\rho-r)\mu}{\Delta\mu(\rho-r-\mu)}\cdot\frac{\rho-\mu}{\rho}\Big]\beta .R^=[bc​+Δμ(ρ−r−μ)(ρ−r)μ​⋅ρρ−μ​]β.

Condition 2 is: μ<ρ−r\mu<\rho-rμ<ρ−r and R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^.

For a function fff on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with left derivative f′f'f′, the working-state operator and the suspension-state operator are

(AIf)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w,(\mathcal A_I f)(w)=(\mu+r)f(w)-\mu f(w+\beta)+\rho(\bar w-w)f'(w)-(\mu R-c)+(\rho-r)w,(AI​f)(w)=(μ+r)f(w)−μf(w+β)+ρ(wˉ−w)f′(w)−(μR−c)+(ρ−r)w, (A∅f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ‾.(\mathcal A_\emptyset f)(w)=rf(w)-\rho wf'(w)+(\rho-r)w-R\underline\mu .(A∅​f)(w)=rf(w)−ρwf′(w)+(ρ−r)w−Rμ​.

The first is a delay-differential operator: it evaluates fff at w+βw+\betaw+β. A pair (VI,V∅)(V_I,V_\emptyset)(VI​,V∅​) satisfies the optimality condition (20)–(22) if

(AIVI)(w)≥0,(A∅V∅)(w)≥0,0≤VI(w)−V∅(w)≤K,VI(0)≥v‾, V∅(0)≥v‾.(\mathcal A_IV_I)(w)\ge0,\quad(\mathcal A_\emptyset V_\emptyset)(w)\ge0,\qquad 0\le V_I(w)-V_\emptyset(w)\le K,\qquad V_I(0)\ge\underline v,\ V_\emptyset(0)\ge\underline v .(AI​VI​)(w)≥0,(A∅​V∅​)(w)≥0,0≤VI​(w)−V∅​(w)≤K,VI​(0)≥v​, V∅​(0)≥v​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4

Under Condition 2, let VIV_IVI​ be the line from v‾\underline vv​ at w=0w=0w=0 to Vˉ\bar VVˉ at w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ, and let VIV_IVI​ be constant Vˉ\bar VVˉ beyond wˉ\bar wwˉ (display (31)). Then

K>Vˉ−v‾ ⟹ (VI, V∅≡v‾) satisfies (20)–(22),K>\bar V-\underline v\ \Longrightarrow\ (V_I,\ V_\emptyset\equiv\underline v)\ \text{satisfies (20)–(22)},K>Vˉ−v​ ⟹ (VI​, V∅​≡v​) satisfies (20)–(22), Kˉ2<K≤Vˉ−v‾ ⟹ (VI, V∅) satisfies (20)–(22),\bar K_2<K\le\bar V-\underline v\ \Longrightarrow\ (V_I,\ V_\emptyset)\ \text{satisfies (20)–(22)},Kˉ2​<K≤Vˉ−v​ ⟹ (VI​, V∅​) satisfies (20)–(22),

where in the second case V∅V_\emptysetV∅​ is the line from v‾\underline vv​ to Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ], constant Vˉ−K\bar V-KVˉ−K beyond (display (32)).

Milestones

  1. Lemma EC.2(vi), second claim: if ρ>r+μ\rho>r+\muρ>r+μ, then Vˉ−ρ−rρ−r−μwˉ≥v‾\bar V-\frac{\rho-r}{\rho-r-\mu}\bar w\ge\underline vVˉ−ρ−r−μρ−r​wˉ≥v​ if and only if R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^.
  2. Proposition 4, first part: the case K>Vˉ−v‾K>\bar V-\underline vK>Vˉ−v​.
  3. Proposition 4, second part: the case Kˉ2<K≤Vˉ−v‾\bar K_2<K\le\bar V-\underline vKˉ2​<K≤Vˉ−v​.

Significance

Through the paper's verification theorem, Proposition 4 yields the "not hiring" half of the main Theorem 2 in the Condition 2 regime. If K≥Kˉ2K\ge\bar K_2K≥Kˉ2​, the principal's value is at most v‾\underline vv​, so it is optimal never to engage the agent (Theorem 3). The threshold Kˉ2=Vˉ−v‾−wˉ\bar K_2=\bar V-\underline v-\bar wKˉ2​=Vˉ−v​−wˉ is the switching cost above which the value of hiring, net of the set-up cost and of the agent's promised rent, falls below the outside value. Together with the companion missions of this series (Condition 1 with high cost, Condition 2 with medium cost, and the low-cost control-band regime), this result completes the partition of the parameter space behind Theorem 2.

The result is proved in the paper and has no machine-checked proof yet. This mission states the analytic certificate of the guess-and-verify argument, not the contract-optimality theorem. The contribution it asks for is a formal proof that these explicit functions satisfy the quasi-variational inequalities, including the left-derivative behaviour at the kink w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ and the algebra that links Condition 2 to the sign of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​.

Difficulty

The functions are piecewise linear, so the difficulty is not analytic depth but bookkeeping that is easy to get wrong:

  • The operator AI\mathcal A_IAI​ is non-local. It evaluates VIV_IVI​ at w+βw+\betaw+β, and which branch of (31) applies there depends on how wˉ\bar wwˉ compares with β\betaβ, which Condition 2 settles.
  • At the kink w=wˉw=\bar ww=wˉ the functions are not differentiable, so the left-derivative convention must be used explicitly.
  • The sign of AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ on [0,wˉ][0,\bar w][0,wˉ] reduces to an inequality between Vˉ\bar VVˉ, v‾\underline vv​ and wˉ\bar wwˉ, and showing that this inequality is the revenue condition R≥R^R\ge\hat RR≥R^ requires unfolding (8)–(10) and (28).

The naive check, that AIVI\mathcal A_IV_IAI​VI​ vanishes or is positive because VIV_IVI​ is "close to" a solution of the delay equation, does not work: VIV_IVI​ is not a solution of (25), and the inequality is strict in general.

Formalization scope

All parameters are real numbers in one structure Params. Its predicate Standing collects the paper's standing assumptions: 0≤μ‾<μ0\le\underline\mu<\mu0≤μ​<μ, 0<b≤c0<b\le c0<b≤c, K>0K>0K>0, 0<r≤ρ0<r\le\rho0<r≤ρ and RΔμ>cR\Delta\mu>cRΔμ>c. Two of these are added to the page and disclosed: μ‾≥0\underline\mu\ge0μ​≥0, since it is an arrival rate, and b>0b>0b>0, since (31)–(32) divide by wˉ=βμ/ρ\bar w=\beta\mu/\rhowˉ=βμ/ρ.

Functions are ℝ → ℝ, and every condition is quantified over w≥0w\ge0w≥0 only. The derivative in AI\mathcal A_IAI​ and A∅\mathcal A_\emptysetA∅​ is the left derivative derivWithin f (Set.Iic w) w, as the paper prescribes on p. 15. Inequality (20) is required for w>0w>0w>0: on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ the left derivative at 000 does not exist. Inequalities (21) and (22) are required exactly as printed. "Satisfy the optimality condition (20)–(22)" means exactly these three conditions; the paper's Theorem 1 additionally asks for monotonicity and concavity, but Proposition 4 does not claim them and they are not added.

The threshold R^\hat RR^ is the printed formula. Its denominator ρ−r−μ\rho-r-\muρ−r−μ is positive under Condition 2, so Lean's convention x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 never applies there.

None of the conditions is weakened: (21) keeps both bounds, (22) is kept, and the operators are not pre-simplified with the closed form of Vˉ\bar VVˉ. A formal proof therefore has to carry out the sign computation itself. The stochastic contract model (Poisson point processes, promise keeping, incentive compatibility), the verification Theorem 1 and the optimality Theorems 2–3 are not formalized.

Two hat symbols elsewhere in the paper are distinct objects from those used here: w^\hat{\mathrm w}w^ of Lemma 3 and the bold w^\hat{\mathbf w}w^ of Proposition 6. Neither appears in this mission. Proofs of the milestones, and proofs of the goal that use them, are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Cao, P. Sun, F. Tian, Punish Underperformance with Suspension: Optimal Dynamic Contracts in the Presence of Switching Cost, Management Science, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4845
  • P. Sun, F. Tian, Optimal Contract to Induce Continued Effort, Management Science 64(9), 4193–4217, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2017.2795
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