Matroid Prophet Inequalities 3: Stopping at the First Value Above E[max X_i]/2 Earns at Least Half the Prophet's Expected MaximumResearch Paper
Motivation
A prophet inequality compares two players facing the same random sequence of rewards . The gambler sees the values one at a time and must decide, as each value arrives, whether to stop and collect it; a value passed over is lost. The prophet knows the whole sequence in advance and simply takes its maximum. In 1978 Krengel, Sucheston and Garling showed that when the are independent, non-negative and , the gambler has a stopping rule with
and that the factor cannot be improved. This inequality, labelled (1) in Kleinberg and Weinberg's Matroid Prophet Inequalities (arXiv:1201.4764, STOC 2012), is the starting point of optimal stopping theory's prophet inequalities and, more recently, of a large literature in online algorithms and algorithmic mechanism design, where it is the reason that a single posted price can extract a constant fraction of the optimal welfare or revenue.
Timeline.
- 1977: Krengel and Sucheston prove the inequality with factor 4 in place of 2 (Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 83).
- 1978: Krengel and Sucheston publish the result attributed to Krengel, Sucheston and Garling, the factor-2 inequality (1) for independent non-negative rewards with ; the factor cannot be improved.
- 1984: Samuel-Cahn shows that a single threshold suffices: stopping at the first value above a threshold with (a median of ) already achieves the factor (doi:10.1214/aop/1176993223).
- 2012: Kleinberg and Weinberg, introducing the matroid prophet inequality, give in §3.1 a second single-threshold rule, with threshold , and a half-page proof that it earns at least . This rule and its analysis are the rank-one case of their matroid algorithm.
This mission formalizes that §3.1 result.
Setting
Let be a probability space and . Let be real random variables on that are independent (as a family), non-negative, and such that the prophet's value has finite expectation. Define
The single-threshold rule observes in order and stops at the first time with , collecting . If no reaches , the rule accepts nothing and collects . Write for the amount collected; it equals on the event , which has probability , and off it.
In Lean the variables are X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ with [NeZero n]; is maxX X, is thr P X, is stopProb P X, and is reward P X, all in the namespace MatroidProphetKW.RankOne.
Formalization targets
Goal: the half-mean threshold rule
This is inequality (1) for an explicit rule, which is stronger than (1)'s existence statement. The constant is sharp, so the goal is stated with it.
Milestones (in the order the paper's argument uses them)
- Tail bound, for every :
- Comparison with the prophet's tail, for every :
- The prophet's upper tail:
- The gambler's lower tail:
Significance
The result. A threshold that depends on the distributions only through one number, , already matches the optimal worst-case guarantee of the best stopping rule. Because it is a single price, the rule translates directly into a posted-price mechanism: a seller who posts the price to arriving buyers obtains half of the expected maximum value. The same accounting, in which accepted value is charged against the threshold and rejected value against the probability of having accepted nothing, is what Kleinberg and Weinberg generalize to matroids (missions 1 and 2 of this series).
Formalizing it. The result is proved and classical; the work here is to formalize its known proof. No machine-checked proof of the factor-2 prophet inequality is in Mathlib, and none was found among the platform's published theorems in October 2026. A completed development provides the inequality itself, the tail comparisons, and the layer-cake bookkeeping for a stopped reward, all of which are reusable for other single-threshold prophet inequalities (Samuel-Cahn's median rule, -choice and posted-price variants).
Difficulty
The expected reward of the rule is not a function of the marginals of the individual alone in an obvious way: the event that the rule is still running when arrives depends on , and the reward is at a random index. The natural first attempt, comparing and pointwise, fails, since on a given outcome the rule may stop early at a value just above while the maximum comes later. The comparison has to be made between distributions, at each level , and it has to use independence to decouple "nothing accepted before time " from "". The rest is measure-theoretic bookkeeping that is routine on paper and not routine in Lean: expressing expectations of non-negative variables as integrals of tail probabilities, splitting them at , and keeping track of integrability.
Formalization scope
- Probability space.
Ωwith aMeasurableSpace,P : Measure Ωwith[IsProbabilityMeasure P]. - Variables.
X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ,[NeZero n]; eachX imeasurable;iIndepFun X P(mutual independence);0 ≤ X i ωfor alli, ω;Integrable (maxX X) P, which is the paper's . - Maximum.
Finset.sup'over the nonempty index set; no junk supremum. - Expectations and probabilities. Bochner integrals (
∫ ω, … ∂P) andMeasure.realprobabilities. Tail integrals are Lebesgue integrals of over and . - Weak and strict inequalities are as printed: the rule stops at , , tails are , for .
- The rule may accept nothing. The reward is when no value reaches ; the rule is not forced to stop at .
The threshold is a definition, , not a free parameter constrained by hypotheses; a formalization in which is arbitrary and the upper-tail bound is assumed would make the goal a rearrangement of its hypotheses, and is ruled out.
Infrastructure that a complete development needs, and that is welcome as separate contributions: the layer-cake formula for non-negative integrable split at a level (Mathlib has the unsplit form, MeasureTheory.integral_eq_integral_meas_lt); measurability and integrability of the stopped reward (it is dominated by ); and the probability of the event "the first values are below and " as a product under iIndepFun.
Selected references
- Robert Kleinberg and S. Matthew Weinberg, Matroid Prophet Inequalities, STOC 2012, pp. 123–136; preprint arXiv:1201.4764v1, 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4764 (doi:10.1145/2213977.2213991)
- Ulrich Krengel and Louis Sucheston, Semiamarts and finite values, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society 83, 1977, pp. 745–747.
- Ulrich Krengel and Louis Sucheston, On semiamarts, amarts, and processes with finite value, Advances in Probability and Related Topics 4, 1978, pp. 197–266.
- Ester Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Annals of Probability 12(4), 1984, pp. 1213–1216. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993223