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Operations Research

2,232 missions · 1,108 completed

The discipline of applying mathematical analysis to complex decision problems in operations: allocating scarce resources, scheduling, routing, inventory, and the design of service and production systems. Drawing on mathematical programming, stochastic modeling, queueing, simulation, and game-theoretic reasoning, it seeks policies that perform provably well in systems shaped by constraints, congestion, and uncertainty.

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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Adaptive Cubic Regularisation Methods for Unconstrained Optimization. Part II: Worst-Case Function- and Derivative-Evaluation Complexity 1: Basic ARC Reaches ‖g‖ ≤ ε in O(ε^(−2)) IterationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Methods for smooth unconstrained minimization, min⁡x∈Rnf(x)\min_{x\in\mathbb R^n} f(x)minx∈Rn​f(x), are compared by how many evaluations of fff and of its gradient they need, in the worst case, to reach an approximately first-order critical point, an iterate with ∥∇f(xk)∥≤ϵ\|\nabla f(x_k)\|\le\epsilon∥∇f(xk​)∥≤ϵ. For steepest descent with a Lipschitz gradient the answer is O(ϵ−2)O(\epsilon^{-2})O(ϵ−2) (Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization, 2004, p. 29). Nesterov and Polyak (2006) showed that globally minimizing a cubic regularisation of the second-order model, with the exact Hessian and a global Lipschitz constant, improves this to O(ϵ−3/2)O(\epsilon^{-3/2})O(ϵ−3/2).

The adaptive regularisation with cubics (ARC) framework of Cartis, Gould and Toint makes that idea practical: the Hessian is replaced by an approximation BkB_kBk​, the Lipschitz constant by an adaptive weight σk\sigma_kσk​, and the global model minimizer by any step that does at least as well as a Cauchy point. Part I (Math. Program. 127, 2011) proved global convergence; Part II (Math. Program. 130, 2011) counts evaluations. This mission covers the first count of Part II (§§2–3): with only the Cauchy condition on the step, ARC needs O(ϵ−2)O(\epsilon^{-2})O(ϵ−2) iterations, the same order as steepest descent and as trust-region methods (Gratton, Sartenaer and Toint, SIAM J. Optim. 19, 2008).

Setting

Let f:Rn→Rf:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rf:Rn→R be continuously differentiable (AF.1), g(x)=∇f(x)g(x)=\nabla f(x)g(x)=∇f(x), and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ the Euclidean norm. At iterate xkx_kxk​, with a symmetric matrix BkB_kBk​ and a weight σk>0\sigma_k>0σk​>0, the cubic model is

mk(s)=f(xk)+sTgk+12sTBks+13σk∥s∥3,gk=g(xk).m_k(s)=f(x_k)+s^Tg_k+\tfrac12 s^TB_ks+\tfrac13\sigma_k\|s\|^3,\qquad g_k=g(x_k).mk​(s)=f(xk​)+sTgk​+21​sTBk​s+31​σk​∥s∥3,gk​=g(xk​).

Algorithm 2.1 (ARC) takes parameters γ2≥γ1>1\gamma_2\ge\gamma_1>1γ2​≥γ1​>1, 1>η2≥η1>01>\eta_2\ge\eta_1>01>η2​≥η1​>0, σ0>0\sigma_0>0σ0​>0 and a starting point x0x_0x0​. At iteration kkk it

  1. picks any step sks_ksk​ satisfying the Cauchy condition mk(sk)≤mk(−αgk)m_k(s_k)\le m_k(-\alpha g_k)mk​(sk​)≤mk​(−αgk​) for every α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0;
  2. computes ρk=(f(xk)−f(xk+sk))/(f(xk)−mk(sk))\rho_k=\big(f(x_k)-f(x_k+s_k)\big)/\big(f(x_k)-m_k(s_k)\big)ρk​=(f(xk​)−f(xk​+sk​))/(f(xk​)−mk​(sk​));
  3. sets xk+1=xk+skx_{k+1}=x_k+s_kxk+1​=xk​+sk​ if ρk≥η1\rho_k\ge\eta_1ρk​≥η1​ (a successful iteration), and xk+1=xkx_{k+1}=x_kxk+1​=xk​ otherwise (unsuccessful);
  4. picks σk+1\sigma_{k+1}σk+1​ in (0,σk](0,\sigma_k](0,σk​] if ρk>η2\rho_k>\eta_2ρk​>η2​ (very successful), in [σk,γ1σk][\sigma_k,\gamma_1\sigma_k][σk​,γ1​σk​] if η1≤ρk≤η2\eta_1\le\rho_k\le\eta_2η1​≤ρk​≤η2​, and in [γ1σk,γ2σk][\gamma_1\sigma_k,\gamma_2\sigma_k][γ1​σk​,γ2​σk​] otherwise.

For j≥0j\ge0j≥0, Sj\mathcal S_jSj​ and Uj\mathcal U_jUj​ are the successful and unsuccessful iterations among 0,…,j0,\dots,j0,…,j. The complexity results use three assumptions: AM.1, ∥Bk∥≤κB\|B_k\|\le\kappa_B∥Bk​∥≤κB​ for all kkk; AF.4, ∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤κH∥x−y∥\|g(x)-g(y)\|\le\kappa_H\|x-y\|∥g(x)−g(y)∥≤κH​∥x−y∥ on an open convex set XXX, with κH≥1\kappa_H\ge1κH​≥1; and a lower bound f(xk)≥flowf(x_k)\ge f_{\rm low}f(xk​)≥flow​. Optionally, (2.10): σk+1≥γ3σk\sigma_{k+1}\ge\gamma_3\sigma_kσk+1​≥γ3​σk​ on very successful iterations, for some γ3∈(0,1]\gamma_3\in(0,1]γ3​∈(0,1]. The constants are

κHB=10821−η2(κH+κB),αC=[62max⁡(1+κB,2max⁡(σ0,κHBγ2))]−1,\kappa_{HB}=\frac{108\sqrt2}{1-\eta_2}(\kappa_H+\kappa_B),\qquad \alpha_C=\Big[6\sqrt2\max\big(1+\kappa_B,2\max(\sqrt{\sigma_0},\kappa_{HB}\sqrt{\gamma_2})\big)\Big]^{-1},κHB​=1−η2​1082​​(κH​+κB​),αC​=[62​max(1+κB​,2max(σ0​​,κHB​γ2​​))]−1, κCs=f(x0)−flowη1αC,κCu=1log⁡γ1max⁡(1,γ2κHB2σ0),κC=(1−log⁡γ3log⁡γ1)κCs+κCu.\kappa^s_C=\frac{f(x_0)-f_{\rm low}}{\eta_1\alpha_C},\qquad \kappa^u_C=\frac{1}{\log\gamma_1}\max\Big(1,\frac{\gamma_2\kappa_{HB}^2}{\sigma_0}\Big),\qquad \kappa_C=\Big(1-\frac{\log\gamma_3}{\log\gamma_1}\Big)\kappa^s_C+\kappa^u_C.κCs​=η1​αC​f(x0​)−flow​​,κCu​=logγ1​1​max(1,σ0​γ2​κHB2​​),κC​=(1−logγ1​logγ3​​)κCs​+κCu​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 3.4

Let ϵ∈(0,1]\epsilon\in(0,1]ϵ∈(0,1] with ∥g0∥>ϵ\|g_0\|>\epsilon∥g0​∥>ϵ, and let j1≤∞j_1\le\inftyj1​≤∞ be the first iteration with ∥gj1+1∥≤ϵ\|g_{j_1+1}\|\le\epsilon∥gj1​+1​∥≤ϵ. Then

∣Sj1∣≤L1s=⌈κCs ϵ−2⌉,|\mathcal S_{j_1}|\le L^s_1=\big\lceil\kappa^s_C\,\epsilon^{-2}\big\rceil,∣Sj1​​∣≤L1s​=⌈κCs​ϵ−2⌉,

and, if (2.10) holds,

j1≤L1=⌈κC ϵ−2⌉.j_1\le L_1=\big\lceil\kappa_C\,\epsilon^{-2}\big\rceil .j1​≤L1​=⌈κC​ϵ−2⌉.

The constants are kept exactly as printed. The first bound counts gradient evaluations and the second counts all iterations, which is the number of function evaluations.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 2.1: under (2.10) and σk≤σˉ\sigma_k\le\bar\sigmaσk​≤σˉ, the bound ∣Uj∣≤⌈−(log⁡γ3/log⁡γ1)∣Sj∣+log⁡(σˉ/σ0)/log⁡γ1⌉|\mathcal U_j|\le\lceil-(\log\gamma_3/\log\gamma_1)|\mathcal S_j|+\log(\bar\sigma/\sigma_0)/\log\gamma_1\rceil∣Uj​∣≤⌈−(logγ3​/logγ1​)∣Sj​∣+log(σˉ/σ0​)/logγ1​⌉, and its variant (2.14) when σk≥σmin⁡\sigma_k\ge\sigma_{\min}σk​≥σmin​.
  2. Theorem 2.2: a model decrease of αϵp\alpha\epsilon^pαϵp on a set So\mathcal S_oSo​ of successful iterations gives ∣So∣≤⌈(f(x0)−flow)ϵ−p/(η1α)⌉|\mathcal S_o|\le\lceil(f(x_0)-f_{\rm low})\epsilon^{-p}/(\eta_1\alpha)\rceil∣So​∣≤⌈(f(x0​)−flow​)ϵ−p/(η1​α)⌉.
  3. Lemma 3.1: the Cauchy decrease (3.3) and the step bound (3.4).
  4. Lemma 3.2: σk∥gk∥>κHB\sqrt{\sigma_k\|g_k\|}>\kappa_{HB}σk​∥gk​∥​>κHB​ makes iteration kkk very successful.
  5. Lemma 3.3: σk≤max⁡(σ0,γ2κHB2/ϵ)\sigma_k\le\max(\sigma_0,\gamma_2\kappa_{HB}^2/\epsilon)σk​≤max(σ0​,γ2​κHB2​/ϵ) while ∥gk∥>ϵ\|g_k\|>\epsilon∥gk​∥>ϵ.
  6. (3.20), (3.21), (3.22) of the proof of Corollary 3.4: the decrease αCϵ2\alpha_C\epsilon^2αC​ϵ2, the first half of the corollary, and the bound on ∣Uj1∣|\mathcal U_{j_1}|∣Uj1​​∣.

Significance

The corollary establishes that the ARC framework, whatever step it takes beyond the Cauchy point and whatever symmetric BkB_kBk​ it uses, is never worse than steepest descent in evaluation count. It is the baseline against which Part II measures its second-order variant ARC(S), whose O(ϵ−3/2)O(\epsilon^{-3/2})O(ϵ−3/2) bound is the subject of a separate mission in this series. Theorems 2.1 and 2.2 are generic: they convert any per-iteration model decrease and any bound on σk\sigma_kσk​ into iteration counts, and are reused verbatim for ARC(S).

The results are proved in the paper. No machine-checked proof of any of them exists on Prove2Me or, to our knowledge, elsewhere. The work here is to formalize the known proofs: the Cauchy-point analysis of Part I (quoted, not reproved, in Part II), the Taylor-remainder estimate of Lemma 3.2, and the counting arguments. Formalizing also checks the printed statements: two of them need a small correction (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

Each step is elementary, but the statements are about a nondeterministic algorithm: sks_ksk​ and σk+1\sigma_{k+1}σk+1​ are choices, so every bound must hold for all admissible choices, not for one convenient run. The constants are explicit, and the ceilings interact: the printed proof of (3.17) adds the ceilings of (3.15) and (3.22), which does not by itself give ⌈κCϵ−2⌉\lceil\kappa_C\epsilon^{-2}\rceil⌈κC​ϵ−2⌉; the bound must be derived from the unrounded estimates. Lemma 3.1 i) requires a careful one-dimensional analysis of α↦mk(−αgk)\alpha\mapsto m_k(-\alpha g_k)α↦mk​(−αgk​) with an indefinite BkB_kBk​. The ratio ρk\rho_kρk​ is a quotient, and its denominator must be shown positive before any comparison with η1\eta_1η1​, η2\eta_2η2​ is meaningful.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); ggg is Mathlib's gradient f; BkB_kBk​ is a continuous linear operator with IsSelfAdjoint, and ∥Bk∥\|B_k\|∥Bk​∥ is the operator norm. A run is a predicate IsARCRun on the sequences x,s,σ,Bx,s,\sigma,Bx,s,σ,B; the Cauchy condition is stated as mk(sk)≤mk(−αgk)m_k(s_k)\le m_k(-\alpha g_k)mk​(sk​)≤mk​(−αgk​) for all α≥0\alpha\ge0α≥0, which is equivalent to comparing with the Cauchy point and avoids defining an argmin. The run is infinite; a run that the paper would stop at gk=0g_k=0gk​=0 extends trivially, and every statement only concerns iterations with ∥gk∥>ϵ\|g_k\|>\epsilon∥gk​∥>ϵ. Lean's x / 0 = 0 gives ρk=0\rho_k=0ρk​=0 (unsuccessful) when f(xk)=mk(sk)f(x_k)=m_k(s_k)f(xk​)=mk​(sk​); Theorem 2.2 assumes (2.6), mk(sk)<f(xk)m_k(s_k)<f(x_k)mk​(sk​)<f(xk​), up to its horizon, and §3's results need nothing extra because gk≠0g_k\neq0gk​=0 makes the denominator positive.

"j1≤Lj_1\le Lj1​≤L" is stated as: every jjj with ∥gk∥>ϵ\|g_k\|>\epsilon∥gk​∥>ϵ for all k≤jk\le jk≤j satisfies j≤Lj\le Lj≤L (and similarly for ∣Sj∣|\mathcal S_j|∣Sj​∣). This asserts that j1j_1j1​ is finite without presupposing it. Statements with j≤∞j\le\inftyj≤∞ are given for every finite jjj.

Two corrections to the printed text are built in. In Theorem 2.1 the bound σk≤σˉ\sigma_k\le\bar\sigmaσk​≤σˉ is assumed for k≤j+1k\le j+1k≤j+1: as printed (k≤jk\le jk≤j) the theorem fails for j=0j=0j=0, iteration 000 unsuccessful, σˉ=σ0\bar\sigma=\sigma_0σˉ=σ0​. In AF.4 the set XXX must contain the trial points xk+skx_k+s_kxk​+sk​ as well as the iterates, because Lemma 3.2 applies the Lipschitz bound on the segment [xk,xk+sk][x_k,x_k+s_k][xk​,xk​+sk​].

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal quantifies over every admissible step and weight update rather than one particular choice, keeps (2.10) out of the first conclusion, and keeps every constant as printed rather than replacing it by an existential.

A complete development needs the one-dimensional cubic analysis behind Lemma 3.1, a mean-value bound for C1C^1C1 functions along a segment, and finite counting over Finset.range. The generic counting results (Theorems 2.1, 2.2) are reusable for every ARC variant. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • C. Cartis, N. I. M. Gould, Ph. L. Toint, Adaptive cubic regularisation methods for unconstrained optimization. Part II: worst-case function- and derivative-evaluation complexity, Math. Program. 130(2):295–319, 2011 (preprint rev. 15 Sep 2009 used here). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-009-0337-y
  • C. Cartis, N. I. M. Gould, Ph. L. Toint, Adaptive cubic regularisation methods for unconstrained optimization. Part I: motivation, convergence and numerical results, Math. Program. 127(2):245–295, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-009-0286-5
  • Yu. Nesterov, B. T. Polyak, Cubic regularization of Newton method and its global performance, Math. Program. 108(1):177–205, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0706-8
  • S. Gratton, A. Sartenaer, Ph. L. Toint, Recursive trust-region methods for multiscale nonlinear optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 19(1):414–444, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1137/050644043
  • Yu. Nesterov, Introductory Lectures on Convex Optimization, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8853-9
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Graph TheoryMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Routing Betweenness Centrality: Under Source-Oblivious Loop-Free Routing, the Betweenness of a Node Sequence Is a Sum over Targets of Chained Pairwise DependenciesResearch Paper

Motivation

Betweenness centrality measures how much of the communication in a network passes through a node. Freeman's original measure (Freeman 1977) counts the fraction of shortest paths between each pair of nodes that pass through it, and Brandes' algorithm (Brandes 2001) made it computable on large graphs. Variants replace shortest paths by maximum flows (Freeman, Borgatti and White 1991), random walks (Newman 2005) or load-splitting rules (Goh, Kahng and Kim 2001), and group variants measure the traffic that passes through a set of nodes (Everett and Borgatti 1999).

Dolev, Elovici and Puzis (technical report 2009, J. ACM 2010) define routing betweenness centrality (RBC): given the actual routing scheme of a communication network and its traffic matrix, the RBC of a node is the expected number of packets that pass through it. Each of the measures above is a special choice of routing scheme. The application is the placement of traffic monitors: the RBC of an ordered sequence of monitors is the expected number of packets sampled by all of them in order, which measures, for example, redundant inspection along a path.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set of nodes. A routing scheme assigns to every source sss, current node uuu, next node vvv and target ttt a number R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t), the probability that uuu forwards to vvv a packet with source address sss and target address ttt. Routing decisions are independent. The scheme is assumed to be

  • nonnegative;
  • total: every node u≠tu\ne tu=t forwards a packet targeted at ttt with total probability one, ∑vR(s,u,v,t)=1\sum_v R(s,u,v,t)=1∑v​R(s,u,v,t)=1, and the target forwards nothing;
  • loop-free: for every pair (s,t)(s,t)(s,t) the directed graph with an arc a→ba\to ba→b whenever R(s,a,b,t)>0R(s,a,b,t)>0R(s,a,b,t)>0 is acyclic;
  • source-oblivious where stated: R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t)R(s,u,v,t) does not depend on sss.

A route from sss to ttt is a sequence of nodes from sss to ttt whose every hop has positive forwarding probability; its probability is the product of the hop probabilities. For nodes s,t,vs,t,vs,t,v and a sequence S=(s1,…,sk)S=(s_1,\dots,s_k)S=(s1​,…,sk​):

  • the pairwise dependency δs,t(v)\delta_{s,t}(v)δs,t​(v) is the total probability of the routes from sss to ttt that visit vvv;
  • the sequence dependency δ~s,t(S)\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)δ~s,t​(S) is the total probability of the routes from sss to ttt that visit s1s_1s1​, then s2s_2s2​, …, then sks_ksk​ (consecutive repetitions in SSS collapsed).

A traffic matrix T(s,t)T(s,t)T(s,t) gives the number of packets sent from sss to ttt, and sampling rates ρv∈[0,1]\rho_v\in[0,1]ρv​∈[0,1] give the fraction of passing packets a monitor at vvv samples. The target dependency is δ∙,t(v)=∑sδs,t(v)T(s,t)\delta_{\bullet,t}(v)=\sum_{s}\delta_{s,t}(v)T(s,t)δ∙,t​(v)=∑s​δs,t​(v)T(s,t), and the RBC of the sequence SρS_\rhoSρ​ of distinct nodes is

δ~∙,∙(Sρ)=∏r∈Sρr⋅∑s,t∈Vδ~s,t(S) T(s,t).\tilde\delta_{\bullet,\bullet}(S_\rho)=\prod_{r\in S}\rho_r\cdot\sum_{s,t\in V}\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)\,T(s,t).δ~∙,∙​(Sρ​)=r∈S∏​ρr​⋅s,t∈V∑​δ~s,t​(S)T(s,t).

Formalization targets

Goal: sequence RBC as a sum over targets of chained dependencies

For a source-oblivious scheme and a sequence S=(s1,…,sk)S=(s_1,\dots,s_k)S=(s1​,…,sk​) of distinct nodes, k≥1k\ge1k≥1,

∏r∈Sρr⋅∑s,t∈Vδ~s,t(S) T(s,t)=∑t∈Vδ∙,t(s1) ρs1∏i=1k−1δsi,t(si+1) ρsi+1.\prod_{r\in S}\rho_r\cdot\sum_{s,t\in V}\tilde\delta_{s,t}(S)\,T(s,t)=\sum_{t\in V}\delta_{\bullet,t}(s_1)\,\rho_{s_1}\prod_{i=1}^{k-1}\delta_{s_i,t}(s_{i+1})\,\rho_{s_{i+1}}.r∈S∏​ρr​⋅s,t∈V∑​δ~s,t​(S)T(s,t)=t∈V∑​δ∙,t​(s1​)ρs1​​i=1∏k−1​δsi​,t​(si+1​)ρsi+1​​.

The right side is the value returned by the paper's Algorithm 6. The identity contains no running time and no constant: it states the exact equality the algorithm relies on.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1: for a loop-free scheme (not necessarily source-oblivious), two different orderings of the same set of nodes cannot both have positive sequence dependency.
  2. Lemma 1 (Dependency chaining): for s≠ts\ne ts=t, δ~s,t((s1,…,sk))=δs,t(s1)⋅δ~s1,t((s2,…,sk))\tilde\delta_{s,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{s,t}(s_1)\cdot\tilde\delta_{s_1,t}((s_2,\dots,s_k))δ~s,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δs,t​(s1​)⋅δ~s1​,t​((s2​,…,sk​)).
  3. Eq. (16): for s≠ts\ne ts=t, δ~s,t((s1,…,sk))=δs,t(s1)∏i=2kδsi−1,t(si)\tilde\delta_{s,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{s,t}(s_1)\prod_{i=2}^k\delta_{s_{i-1},t}(s_i)δ~s,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δs,t​(s1​)∏i=2k​δsi−1​,t​(si​).
  4. Eq. (17): δ~∙,t((s1,…,sk))=δ∙,t(s1)∏i=2kδsi−1,t(si)\tilde\delta_{\bullet,t}((s_1,\dots,s_k))=\delta_{\bullet,t}(s_1)\prod_{i=2}^k\delta_{s_{i-1},t}(s_i)δ~∙,t​((s1​,…,sk​))=δ∙,t​(s1​)∏i=2k​δsi−1​,t​(si​).
  5. Eq. (1) (off the goal's path): δs,t(s)=1\delta_{s,t}(s)=1δs,t​(s)=1 and δs,t(v)=∑uδs,t(u)R(s,u,v,t)\delta_{s,t}(v)=\sum_{u}\delta_{s,t}(u)R(s,u,v,t)δs,t​(v)=∑u​δs,t​(u)R(s,u,v,t) for v≠sv\ne sv=s, the sum over predecessors uuu of vvv.
  6. Eq. (9) (off the goal's path): δ∙,t(v)=T(v,t)+∑uδ∙,t(u)R(⊘,u,v,t)\delta_{\bullet,t}(v)=T(v,t)+\sum_u\delta_{\bullet,t}(u)R(\oslash,u,v,t)δ∙,t​(v)=T(v,t)+∑u​δ∙,t​(u)R(⊘,u,v,t) for source-oblivious schemes.

Significance

The goal reduces the RBC of a sequence of kkk monitors to O(nk)O(nk)O(nk) arithmetic on precomputed single-node quantities, instead of a pass over the routing graph of every source–target pair. This is what makes repeated evaluation of candidate monitor sequences, as in greedy or search-based placement, affordable on large networks. Eqs. (1) and (9) are the recursions behind the paper's algorithms for the RBC of single nodes; Eq. (9) replaces the loop over all source–target pairs by a loop over targets.

The paper's proof of Lemma 1 is an argument about conditional probabilities of informally described events. A formalization fixes what "the probability that a packet passes through SSS" means, as a sum over a finite set of routes, and checks the factorization against that definition, including the corner cases the prose passes over: sequences with repeated nodes, a first node equal to the source or to the target, and the source s=ts=ts=t in the sum over all sources. No machine-checked version of these identities is known.

Difficulty

Dependency chaining is a Markov property: after the packet reaches s1s_1s1​, its future does not depend on its past. The obvious argument splits every route through s1s_1s1​ into a prefix ending at s1s_1s1​ and a suffix starting there. Two points need care. First, the suffix must be a route of a packet with source s1s_1s1​, which is where source-obliviousness enters; for source-dependent routing the lemma is false. Second, the prefix probabilities must sum to δs,t(s1)\delta_{s,t}(s_1)δs,t​(s1​) while the suffix probabilities sum to one, which requires that no packet is lost: this is where totality of the forwarding probabilities and loop-freeness (every walk reaches the target in at most ∣V∣|V|∣V∣ steps) are needed. The passage from Lemma 1 to the goal then requires the sum over all sources, including s=ts=ts=t, where Lemma 1 does not apply.

Formalization scope

Nodes form a type V with [Fintype V] [DecidableEq V]; probabilities, traffic and sampling rates are real numbers; sequences are Lean lists, indexed from 000. Routes are repetition-free lists, and every dependency is a finite sum over them; no infinite sums, suprema or measure theory are used. The definitions file bundles the standing assumptions in IsRoutingScheme and source-obliviousness in IsSourceOblivious.

The paper's probabilities are informal. The following readings are explicit:

  • every non-target node forwards with total probability one (implicit in the paper; without it Lemma 1 fails);
  • the target forwards nothing;
  • the paper's convention R(⊘,v,v,⊘)=1R(\oslash,v,v,\oslash)=1R(⊘,v,v,⊘)=1 is not adopted (it contradicts loop-freeness); collapsing consecutive repetitions in SSS reproduces its only use;
  • the "don't care" source ⊘\oslash⊘ of Eq. (9) is an arbitrary fixed node, harmless under source-obliviousness;
  • the printed index slips in Eqs. (16) and (17) are corrected;
  • no sign condition is imposed on TTT; 0≤ρv≤10\le\rho_v\le10≤ρv​≤1 is kept in the goal as on the page.

Defining δ~\tilde\deltaδ~ by the recursion (3) or the product (16), the target sequence dependency by (17), or the sequence RBC as the sum over targets of the chained product would make the goal true by definition; every dependency here is a sum of route probabilities, and the RBC of a sequence is the double sum of Eq. (4).

The running-time claims of the paper are out of scope. Lemma 2 of the paper (p. 17) is false as printed for a nonempty monitor set and is not posed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma that the total route probability from any node is one under a total loop-free scheme (reusable for absorbing Markov chains on finite DAGs), and the prefix–suffix decomposition of routes.

Selected references

  • S. Dolev, Y. Elovici, R. Puzis, Routing Betweenness Centrality, Technical Report #2009-09, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, 2009; J. ACM 57(4), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1145/1734213.1734219
  • L. C. Freeman, A set of measures of centrality based on betweenness, Sociometry 40(1), 1977. https://doi.org/10.2307/3033543
  • U. Brandes, A faster algorithm for betweenness centrality, J. Math. Sociology 25(2), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2001.9990249
  • L. C. Freeman, S. P. Borgatti, D. R. White, Centrality in valued graphs: a measure of betweenness based on network flow, Social Networks 13, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-8733(91)90017-N
  • M. E. J. Newman, A measure of betweenness centrality based on random walks, Social Networks 27, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socnet.2004.11.009
  • K.-I. Goh, B. Kahng, D. Kim, Universal behavior of load distribution in scale-free networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 87, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.87.278701
  • M. G. Everett, S. P. Borgatti, The centrality of groups and classes, J. Math. Sociology 23(3), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.1999.9990219
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AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Continuous-Time Average-Preserving Opinion Dynamics with Opinion-Dependent Communications 2: Regular Initial Opinions Converge to Clusters with |B − A| ≥ 1 + min{W_A, W_B}/max{W_A, W_B}Research Paper

Motivation

Bounded-confidence opinion dynamics model a population in which each agent repeatedly moves its opinion towards the opinions of those agents whose views lie within a fixed distance of its own. Introduced in discrete time by Krause (1997) and studied as the Hegselmann–Krause model, these systems are a standard test case for multi-agent coordination with state-dependent communication: who talks to whom depends on the current state, so the interaction graph changes over time and the linear consensus theory does not apply. Simulations show that opinions settle into clusters that are further apart than the confidence radius, and that the distances between clusters are larger than the radius would force. Explaining those distances is a long-standing question in the area (Lorenz 2007).

Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis (SIAM J. Control Optim. 2010) study the continuous-time version, first for finitely many agents and then for a continuum of agents. The continuum model is the limit of a large population and captures the intercluster distances observed in simulations. This mission formalizes the continuum part of the paper, Section 3: well-posedness for regular initial opinions, convergence to clusters, and the intercluster distance bound of Theorem 6.

Setting

Agents are indexed by I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure. An opinion function x~:I→R\tilde x : I\to\mathbb Rx~:I→R gives the opinion x~(α)\tilde x(\alpha)x~(α) of agent α\alphaα. Write YYY for the bounded measurable opinion functions and XXX for the nondecreasing bounded ones. For m,M>0m,M>0m,M>0, XmX_mXm​ is the set of x~∈X\tilde x\in Xx~∈X whose increase rate x~(β)−x~(α)β−α\frac{\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha)}{\beta-\alpha}β−αx~(β)−x~(α)​ is at least mmm for all β≠α\beta\ne\alphaβ=α, and XMX^MXM the set with rate at most MMM. A function is regular if it lies in XmM=Xm∩XMX_m^M=X_m\cap X^MXmM​=Xm​∩XM for some m,M>0m,M>0m,M>0; the uniform profile x~(α)=α\tilde x(\alpha)=\alphax~(α)=α is regular.

Two agents are connected when their opinions differ by less than 111. The interaction operator is

L(x~)(α)=∫01χx~(α,γ)(x~(γ)−x~(α)) dγ,χx~(α,γ)=1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1].\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\alpha)=\int_0^1 \chi_{\tilde x}(\alpha,\gamma)\bigl(\tilde x(\gamma)-\tilde x(\alpha)\bigr)\,d\gamma,\qquad \chi_{\tilde x}(\alpha,\gamma)=\mathbf 1\bigl[|\tilde x(\alpha)-\tilde x(\gamma)|<1\bigr].L(x~)(α)=∫01​χx~​(α,γ)(x~(γ)−x~(α))dγ,χx~​(α,γ)=1[∣x~(α)−x~(γ)∣<1].

Given an initial condition x~0\tilde x_0x~0​, a solution of (3.2) is a measurable x:I×[0,∞)→Rx : I\times[0,\infty)\to\mathbb Rx:I×[0,∞)→R, (α,t)↦xt(α)(\alpha,t)\mapsto x_t(\alpha)(α,t)↦xt​(α), with each xt∈Yx_t\in Yxt​∈Y and

xt(α)=x~0(α)+∫0tL(xτ)(α) dτfor every t≥0 and every α∈I.x_t(\alpha)=\tilde x_0(\alpha)+\int_0^t \mathcal L(x_\tau)(\alpha)\,d\tau\qquad\text{for every } t\ge 0 \text{ and every }\alpha\in I .xt​(α)=x~0​(α)+∫0t​L(xτ​)(α)dτfor every t≥0 and every α∈I.

The differential form (3.1) is ddtxt(α)=L(xt)(α)\frac{d}{dt}x_t(\alpha)=\mathcal L(x_t)(\alpha)dtd​xt​(α)=L(xt​)(α).

FFF is the set of nondecreasing s~\tilde ss~ whose distinct values are pairwise more than 111 apart; Fˉ\bar FFˉ the set of nondecreasing s~\tilde ss~ whose values, for almost every pair of agents, are equal or at least 111 apart. A fixed point is an s~∈X\tilde s\in Xs~∈X for which (3.2) started at s~\tilde ss~ has the unique solution xt=s~x_t=\tilde sxt​=s~. A cluster of s~\tilde ss~ is a value AAA held by a set of agents of positive measure WAW_AWA​, its weight.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6

For a regular x~0\tilde x_0x~0​, a solution xxx of (3.2), and s~=lim⁡t→∞xt\tilde s=\lim_{t\to\infty}x_ts~=limt→∞​xt​ almost everywhere: any two distinct clusters A≠BA\ne BA=B of s~\tilde ss~ satisfy

∣B−A∣ ≥ 1+min⁡{WA,WB}max⁡{WA,WB},|B-A|\ \ge\ 1+\frac{\min\{W_A,W_B\}}{\max\{W_A,W_B\}},∣B−A∣ ≥ 1+max{WA​,WB​}min{WA​,WB​}​,

and s~\tilde ss~ agrees almost everywhere with a member of FFF that is a fixed point.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: ∥L(x~)−L(y~)∥∞≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~∥∞\|\mathcal L(\tilde x)-\mathcal L(\tilde y)\|_\infty\le(2+8/m)\|\tilde x-\tilde y\|_\infty∥L(x~)−L(y~​)∥∞​≤(2+8/m)∥x~−y~​∥∞​ for x~∈Xm\tilde x\in X_mx~∈Xm​, y~∈Y\tilde y\in Yy~​∈Y.
  2. Lemma 2: −(x~(β)−x~(α))≤L(x~)(β)−L(x~)(α)-(\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha))\le\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\beta)-\mathcal L(\tilde x)(\alpha)−(x~(β)−x~(α))≤L(x~)(β)−L(x~)(α), and ≤2m(x~(β)−x~(α))\le\frac 2m(\tilde x(\beta)-\tilde x(\alpha))≤m2​(x~(β)−x~(α)) on XmX_mXm​.
  3. Theorem 4: for x~0∈XmM\tilde x_0\in X_m^Mx~0​∈XmM​, (3.1) and (3.2) have a unique common solution, with xt(β)−xt(α)β−α≥me−t\frac{x_t(\beta)-x_t(\alpha)}{\beta-\alpha}\ge me^{-t}β−αxt​(β)−xt​(α)​≥me−t and xtx_txt​ regular for every ttt.
  4. Lemma 3: for a nondecreasing solution, ∫0cxt\int_0^c x_t∫0c​xt​ converges for every ccc.
  5. Proposition 2: xt(α)x_t(\alpha)xt​(α) converges outside a countable set of agents.
  6. Proposition 3(a)–(c): a.e. limits lie in Fˉ\bar FFˉ; FFF consists of fixed points; nondecreasing fixed points lie in Fˉ\bar FFˉ.
  7. Theorem 5: xt→y~∈Fˉx_t\to\tilde y\in\bar Fxt​→y~​∈Fˉ almost everywhere, and F⊆{fixed points}⊆FˉF\subseteq\{\text{fixed points}\}\subseteq\bar FF⊆{fixed points}⊆Fˉ.

Significance

Theorem 6 turns the qualitative picture "opinions freeze into clusters at least one unit apart", which already follows from Theorem 5, into a quantitative statement depending on the cluster weights: two clusters of equal weight are at least 222 apart, and a light cluster can sit closer to a heavy one. This matches the intercluster distances observed in simulations of large populations and yields Corollary 1 of the paper, a necessary condition for the stability of an equilibrium in the L1L^1L1 sense. Theorem 4 is of independent interest: the right-hand side of (3.1) is discontinuous in the state, a two-valued initial profile admits two different solutions, and well-posedness holds only under the slope bounds.

The results are proved in the paper. Nothing in this mission has a machine-checked proof yet. Formalizing it means building a small theory of integral equations with a state-dependent, discontinuous kernel on L∞L^\inftyL∞-type spaces of opinion profiles: a contraction argument on short intervals, its continuation, monotone convergence of partial integrals, and an a.e. limit argument with Fatou's lemma and Fubini.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 4, Picard–Lindelöf, fails: L\mathcal LL is not Lipschitz on YYY, because a small perturbation of opinions can switch the connection indicator on a set of positive measure. Lemma 1 restores the Lipschitz property only at functions with a positive increase rate, so existence and uniqueness require a contraction on a carefully chosen set of profiles together with a proof that the dynamics keep the increase rate positive (Lemma 2), and a continuation argument whose step size shrinks as the lower slope decays. For Theorem 6, convergence alone gives only ∣B−A∣≥1|B-A|\ge 1∣B−A∣≥1; the extra min⁡/max⁡\min/\maxmin/max term comes from agents trapped between two clusters, whose existence relies on the continuity in α\alphaα of every xtx_txt​, which the a.e. limit s~\tilde ss~ does not have.

Formalization scope

Opinion functions are ℝ → ℝ, and only their values on Set.Icc 0 1 matter; a trajectory is x : ℝ → ℝ → ℝ with x t α =xt(α)=x_t(\alpha)=xt​(α), time real with t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Lebesgue measure on III is volume.restrict (Set.Icc 0 1), and Fˉ\bar FFˉ uses its product measure. The slope conditions are written multiplied out for α<β\alpha<\betaα<β. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "solution of (3.2)": joint measurability on I×[0,∞)I\times[0,\infty)I×[0,∞), xt∈Yx_t\in Yxt​∈Y, integrability of τ↦L(xτ)(α)\tau\mapsto\mathcal L(x_\tau)(\alpha)τ↦L(xτ​)(α) on [0,t][0,t][0,t] (implicit in the paper), and the equation for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and every α∈I\alpha\in Iα∈I (footnote 6), not almost every α\alphaα.
  • "the solution": any solution; Theorem 4 makes it unique.
  • "converges": Tendsto … atTop (𝓝 l) to a real limit; "except possibly for a countable set": a countable exceptional set; "a.e.": almost everywhere for Lebesgue measure on III.
  • "y~∈Fˉ\tilde y\in\bar Fy~​∈Fˉ" and "s~∈F\tilde s\in Fs~∈F" for an a.e.-defined limit: some representative equal almost everywhere belongs to the set.
  • "any two clusters": two distinct values of positive weight; weights are measures of level sets.
  • "fixed point": existence and uniqueness of the constant solution.
  • Theorem 4's printed upper bound Me4t/mMe^{4t/m}Me4t/m is replaced by "xtx_txt​ is regular for every ttt", because the paper's proof establishes the printed constant only on the first time interval; the lower bound me−tme^{-t}me−t is kept.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: clusters are distinct with positive weight, regularity requires a positive lower slope, the solution predicate forbids the junk value of a non-integrable time integral, and x~(α)=α\tilde x(\alpha)=\alphax~(α)=α is checked to be regular, so no hypothesis is vacuous.

The development needs an integral-equation solution theory for a discontinuous kernel, the Banach fixed point theorem (Mathlib ContractingWith), Grönwall-type estimates, countability of discontinuities of monotone functions, Fatou's lemma and Fubini. Lemmas 1 and 2 and the lower bound in Theorem 4 are reused by the companion mission on the discrete-to-continuum approximation (Theorem 7). Contributions are welcome on every milestone, and in particular on the slope estimates, which are self-contained.

Selected references

  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Continuous-time average-preserving opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent communications, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(8), 2010, 5214–5240. https://doi.org/10.1137/090766188
  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, On Krause's multi-agent consensus model with state-dependent connectivity, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 54(11), 2009, 2586–2597. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2009.2031211
  • J. Lorenz, Continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence: A survey, Internat. J. Modern Phys. C 18(12), 2007, 1819–1838. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183107011789
  • U. Krause, Soziale Dynamiken mit vielen Interakteuren. Eine Problemskizze, in Modellierung und Simulation von Dynamiken mit vielen interagierenden Akteuren, Bremen, 1997, 37–51.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization II: With a Randomized Order and a Diminishing Stepsize, Incremental Subgradient-Proximal Methods Converge Almost Surely to an OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in statistical learning, signal processing and distributed optimization minimize a sum of a large number mmm of convex components over a convex set: a data-fit term per sample plus a regularizer or constraint per sample. When mmm is large, a method that processes one component per iteration is often far cheaper per step than one that evaluates the whole sum. Incremental methods do exactly this. The incremental subgradient method of Nedić and Bertsekas (SIAM J. Optim., 2001) takes a subgradient step on one component at a time; the incremental proximal method replaces some of these steps by proximal steps, which are more stable and are cheap when a component has a closed-form proximal map (an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ term, an indicator of a simple set).

Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization (Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010, revised 2011; Math. Program. 129 (2011), doi:10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0), combines the two: each component is split as Fi=fi+hiF_i=f_i+h_iFi​=fi​+hi​, with a proximal step on fif_ifi​ and a subgradient step on hih_ihi​, followed by a projection. The paper analyzes two ways of choosing the component at each iteration, a fixed cyclic order and a randomized order. This mission covers the randomized order (§4 of the paper); its companion mission covers the cyclic order.

Setting

Let X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn be a nonempty closed convex set and let fi,hi:Rn→Rf_i,h_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rfi​,hi​:Rn→R, i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m, be convex. The problem is

minimize F(x)=∑i=1m(fi(x)+hi(x))subject to x∈X,\text{minimize } F(x)=\sum_{i=1}^m\bigl(f_i(x)+h_i(x)\bigr)\quad\text{subject to } x\in X,minimize F(x)=i=1∑m​(fi​(x)+hi​(x))subject to x∈X,

with optimal value F∗=inf⁡x∈XF(x)F^*=\inf_{x\in X}F(x)F∗=infx∈X​F(x), possibly −∞-\infty−∞, and optimal set X∗={x∗∈X∣F(x∗)=F∗}X^*=\{x^*\in X\mid F(x^*)=F^*\}X∗={x∗∈X∣F(x∗)=F∗}, possibly empty. PXP_XPX​ is the Euclidean projection on XXX and ∇~f(x)\tilde\nabla f(x)∇~f(x) a subgradient of fff at xxx.

At iteration kkk a component index ωk∈{1,…,m}\omega_k\in\{1,\dots,m\}ωk​∈{1,…,m} is drawn and, with stepsize αk>0\alpha_k>0αk​>0, one of three updates is applied:

zk=PX(xk−αk∇~fωk(zk)),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hωk(zk)),(42)z_k=P_X\bigl(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad(42)zk​=PX​(xk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(zk​)),(42) zk=xk−αk∇~fωk(zk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hωk(zk)),(43)z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(z_k),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(z_k)\bigr),\qquad(43)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(zk​),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(zk​)),(43) zk=xk−αk∇~hωk(xk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~fωk(xk+1)).(44)z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{\omega_k}(x_k),\qquad x_{k+1}=P_X\bigl(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{\omega_k}(x_{k+1})\bigr).\qquad(44)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~hωk​​(xk​),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~fωk​​(xk+1​)).(44)

The implicit equations are proximal steps: in (42), zkz_kzk​ minimizes fωk(x)+12αk∥x−xk∥2f_{\omega_k}(x)+\frac1{2\alpha_k}\|x-x_k\|^2fωk​​(x)+2αk​1​∥x−xk​∥2 over XXX. The randomized order means that ωk\omega_kωk​ is uniformly distributed over {1,…,m}\{1,\dots,m\}{1,…,m} and independent of the past history Fk={xk,zk−1,xk−1,…,z0,x0}\mathcal F_k=\{x_k,z_{k-1},x_{k-1},\dots,z_0,x_0\}Fk​={xk​,zk−1​,xk−1​,…,z0​,x0​} (Assumptions 3(a), 4(a)). The growth conditions (Assumptions 3(b), 4(b)) ask for a constant ccc bounding, with probability 1 and for every component iii, the norms of the subgradients used by the step that would be taken if ωk\omega_kωk​ were iii, and the decrease of fif_ifi​, hih_ihi​ along that step by ccc times its length.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 9

If αk→0\alpha_k\to0αk​→0 and ∑kαk=∞\sum_k\alpha_k=\infty∑k​αk​=∞, then

lim inf⁡k→∞F(xk)=F∗with probability 1,\liminf_{k\to\infty}F(x_k)=F^*\quad\text{with probability 1},k→∞liminf​F(xk​)=F∗with probability 1,

and if in addition X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅ and ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then with probability 1 the iterates xkx_kxk​ converge to some x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗ (which may depend on the sample path).

Milestones

  1. Eq. (58). For every x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗ and every k≥0k\ge0k≥0,
E{∥xk+1−x∗∥2∣Fk}≤∥xk−x∗∥2−2αkm(F(xk)−F∗)+5αk2c2.E\{\|x_{k+1}-x^*\|^2\mid\mathcal F_k\}\le\|x_k-x^*\|^2-\frac{2\alpha_k}{m}\bigl(F(x_k)-F^*\bigr)+5\alpha_k^2c^2.E{∥xk+1​−x∗∥2∣Fk​}≤∥xk​−x∗∥2−m2αk​​(F(xk​)−F∗)+5αk2​c2.
  1. Proposition 2, the supermartingale convergence theorem: if E{Yk+1∣Fk}≤Yk−Zk+WkE\{Y_{k+1}\mid\mathcal F_k\}\le Y_k-Z_k+W_kE{Yk+1​∣Fk​}≤Yk​−Zk​+Wk​ for nonnegative adapted Yk,Zk,WkY_k,Z_k,W_kYk​,Zk​,Wk​ and ∑kWk<∞\sum_kW_k<\infty∑k​Wk​<∞ almost surely, then almost surely ∑kZk<∞\sum_kZ_k<\infty∑k​Zk​<∞ and YkY_kYk​ converges.
  2. Eq. (59). If ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then for each x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗, almost surely, ∑k2αkm(F(xk)−F∗)<∞\sum_k\frac{2\alpha_k}{m}(F(x_k)-F^*)<\infty∑k​m2αk​​(F(xk​)−F∗)<∞ and ∥xk−x∗∥\|x_k-x^*\|∥xk​−x∗∥ converges.
  3. Proposition 7 (constant stepsize α\alphaα): almost surely inf⁡k≥0F(xk)=F∗\inf_{k\ge0}F(x_k)=F^*infk≥0​F(xk​)=F∗ if F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, and inf⁡k≥0F(xk)≤F∗+5αmc22\inf_{k\ge0}F(x_k)\le F^*+\frac{5\alpha mc^2}{2}infk≥0​F(xk​)≤F∗+25αmc2​ otherwise.
  4. Proposition 8 (constant stepsize, X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅, ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0): the first index NNN with F(xN)<F∗+5αmc2+ϵ2F(x_N)<F^*+\frac{5\alpha mc^2+\epsilon}{2}F(xN​)<F∗+25αmc2+ϵ​ is almost surely finite and E{N}≤m dist(x0;X∗)2/(αϵ)E\{N\}\le m\,\mathrm{dist}(x_0;X^*)^2/(\alpha\epsilon)E{N}≤mdist(x0​;X∗)2/(αϵ).

Significance

Proposition 9 says that a randomized incremental method with a diminishing stepsize solves the problem exactly, almost surely, under conditions that do not require differentiability, bounded level sets, or strong convexity. Propositions 7 and 8 quantify the constant-stepsize regime: the error bound is O(αmc2)O(\alpha mc^2)O(αmc2), smaller by a factor of mmm than the worst case of the cyclic order (Proposition 4 of the paper). This is the paper's argument for randomization, and the same comparison recurs in the later literature on stochastic and incremental methods.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as known, none of them is machine-checked: Mathlib has conditional expectation, filtrations and Doob's martingale convergence theorem, but not the Robbins–Siegmund almost-supermartingale theorem in the form used here, and no incremental or stochastic proximal method has a formal convergence proof on the platform. The mission produces a formal model of a randomized algorithm with implicit (proximal) steps, a formal Robbins–Siegmund special case, and a complete a.s. convergence proof that other stochastic-approximation formalizations can reuse.

Difficulty

The deterministic estimate behind (58) is the one of the cyclic analysis with the sampled component in place of the cyclic one. The new difficulty is the conditioning step: E{Fωk(zk)∣Fk}=1m∑iFi(zki)E\{F_{\omega_k}(z_k)\mid\mathcal F_k\}=\frac1m\sum_iF_i(z_k^i)E{Fωk​​(zk​)∣Fk​}=m1​∑i​Fi​(zki​) needs the step that would be taken for each component iii to be a function of the past, and ωk\omega_kωk​ to be independent of it, and both must be stated so that the conditional expectation is that of an integrable function. The obvious route from (59) to part 2 of the goal fails: (59) gives, for each x∗x^*x∗, an event of probability 1, and X∗X^*X∗ is in general uncountable, so the events cannot be intersected directly. Part 1 must also handle F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, where no point of X∗X^*X∗ is available.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); components are indexed by Fin m (0,…,m−10,\dots,m-10,…,m−1), with m≥1m\ge1m≥1.
  • XXX is nonempty, closed and convex and fi,hif_i,h_ifi​,hi​ are real-valued convex (the paper's standing assumptions of p. 4), stated as explicit hypotheses; stepsizes are positive.
  • PXP_XPX​ is a predicate (nearest point of XXX); subgradients are given by the subgradient inequality. The iterations (42)–(44) are their subgradient forms, with the subgradient of fif_ifi​ the one that makes the implicit equation hold, which is the paper's proximal step.
  • F∗F^*F∗ is an infimum in EReal, so F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞ is represented and the lim inf⁡\liminfliminf and inf⁡\infinf statements are in EReal.
  • The run carries, for each kkk and each component iii, the would-be step from xkx_kxk​; the realized step is the one for i=ωki=\omega_ki=ωk​. The bounds (45)–(48) are required for all iii, as in the paper.
  • "Independent of the past history" is formalized as independence of σ(ωk)\sigma(\omega_k)σ(ωk​) from Fk=σ(x0,…,xk,z0,…,zk−1)\mathcal F_k=\sigma(x_0,\dots,x_k,z_0,\dots,z_{k-1})Fk​=σ(x0​,…,xk​,z0​,…,zk−1​). Added hypotheses that make it meaningful: the iterates are measurable, the would-be step at kkk is Fk\mathcal F_kFk​-measurable, and x0x_0x0​ is a fixed vector.
  • Proposition 2 adds integrability of YkY_kYk​ (Lean's conditional expectation of a non-integrable function is 000).
  • Proposition 8 uses the paper's own NNN (the first entry time into the level set of its proof), not an arbitrary random variable, and adds the hypothesis x0∈Xx_0\in Xx0​∈X, which its proof uses.

A formalization in which the would-be steps may depend on ωk\omega_kωk​, or in which ωk\omega_kωk​ is only assumed uniform, would let a step pick its component adversarially; the measurability and independence hypotheses rule this out, and none of the hypotheses is unsatisfiable (a sorry-free instance with m=2m=2m=2 is checked locally).

Needed infrastructure: the Robbins–Siegmund special case (Proposition 2), conditional expectation of a function of an independent uniform index and a past-measurable quantity, and existence of a countable dense subset of a closed set in Rn\mathbb R^nRn. The supermartingale theorem and the conditioning lemma are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of reusable lemmas about projections and proximal steps are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization, Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010 (revised March 2011); Mathematical Programming 129 (2011) 163–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0
  • A. Nedić and D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Subgradient Methods for Nondifferentiable Optimization, SIAM Journal on Optimization 12 (2001) 109–138. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499362111
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, A Convergence Theorem for Non Negative Almost Supermartingales and Some Applications, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press, 1971, 233–257. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • J. Neveu, Discrete Parameter Martingales, North-Holland, 1975 (the paper's reference [43] for Proposition 2).
  • D. P. Bertsekas and J. N. Tsitsiklis, Neuro-Dynamic Programming, Athena Scientific, 1996 (the paper's reference [7] for Proposition 2).
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AnalysisControl TheoryDynamical Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Continuous-Time Average-Preserving Opinion Dynamics with Opinion-Dependent Communications 1: Every Proper Solution of the Discrete-Agent Model Converges to Clusters at Least 1 ApartResearch Paper

Motivation

Bounded-confidence opinion dynamics model a population in which each individual revises an opinion, represented by a real number, by looking only at opinions close to its own. The best-known example is the discrete-time model of Krause (1997), also called the Hegselmann–Krause model, in which every agent moves to the average of the opinions within distance 1 of its own. Such models are studied in the social sciences as models of consensus formation and polarization, and in control theory as prototypes of multiagent systems with state-dependent interaction topology: the communication graph is not given in advance but is determined by the state itself, which is what rendezvous algorithms for mobile robots and flocking models share (Lorenz 2007; Olfati-Saber, Fax, Murray 2007).

Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis (SIAM J. Control Optim. 48 (2010)) study the continuous-time, symmetric counterpart of Krause's model. Each opinion is continuously attracted by every other opinion differing from it by less than 1, with an intensity proportional to the difference. Simulations show convergence to clusters, groups of agents sharing a common value, with distinct clusters at distance at least 1 and typically close to 2. This mission formalizes the first of the paper's results: convergence to clusters at least 1 apart for finitely many agents.

Timeline.

  • 1997: Krause introduces the discrete-time bounded-confidence model.
  • 2003: Jadbabaie, Lin and Morse prove convergence results for nearest-neighbour coordination with switching topologies (IEEE TAC 48).
  • 2009: Blondel, Hendrickx and Tsitsiklis analyse Krause's discrete-time model and the observed intercluster distance of about 2 (IEEE TAC 54).
  • 2010: the present paper. For the continuous-time model with n agents it proves that every proper solution converges to an equilibrium with clusters at least 1 apart (Theorem 2). It also proves that almost every initial condition is proper (Theorem 1, proof sketched) and gives a continuum-agent analysis with a sharper intercluster bound.

Setting

There are nnn agents, labelled 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. Agent iii holds a real opinion xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) at each time t≥0t\ge 0t≥0, and xix_ixi​ is a continuous function of time. Agent jjj is a neighbour of agent iii at time ttt when ∣xi(t)−xj(t)∣<1|x_i(t)-x_j(t)|<1∣xi​(t)−xj​(t)∣<1; the inequality is strict, and every agent is its own neighbour. The intended dynamics are

x˙i(t)=∑j: ∣xi(t)−xj(t)∣<1(xj(t)−xi(t)).(1.1)\dot x_i(t)=\sum_{j:\,|x_i(t)-x_j(t)|<1}\bigl(x_j(t)-x_i(t)\bigr).\tag{1.1}x˙i​(t)=j:∣xi​(t)−xj​(t)∣<1∑​(xj​(t)−xi​(t)).(1.1)

The right-hand side jumps whenever a pair of opinions crosses distance 1, so (1.1) usually has no differentiable solution. The model is therefore the integral equation

xi(t)=xi(0)+∫0t∑j: ∣xi(τ)−xj(τ)∣<1(xj(τ)−xi(τ)) dτ(t≥0, i=1,…,n).(2.1)x_i(t)=x_i(0)+\int_0^t\sum_{j:\,|x_i(\tau)-x_j(\tau)|<1}\bigl(x_j(\tau)-x_i(\tau)\bigr)\,d\tau\qquad(t\ge0,\ i=1,\dots,n).\tag{2.1}xi​(t)=xi​(0)+∫0t​j:∣xi​(τ)−xj​(τ)∣<1∑​(xj​(τ)−xi​(τ))dτ(t≥0, i=1,…,n).(2.1)

Solutions of (2.1) need not be unique. The two-agent initial condition (−12,12)(-\tfrac12,\tfrac12)(−21​,21​) is a fixed point, but the agents can also start attracting each other immediately. An initial condition x~∈Rn\tilde x\in\mathbb R^nx~∈Rn is proper if (a) (2.1) has exactly one solution xxx with x(0)=x~x(0)=\tilde xx(0)=x~; (b) the set of times at which xxx is not differentiable is at most countable and has no accumulation point; and (c) agents that meet stay together: xi(t)=xj(t)x_i(t)=x_j(t)xi​(t)=xj​(t) implies xi(t′)=xj(t′)x_i(t')=x_j(t')xi​(t′)=xj​(t′) for all t′≥tt'\ge tt′≥t. That solution is then a proper solution.

The set of equilibria is

F={s~∈Rn: for all i,j, s~i=s~j or ∣s~i−s~j∣≥1}.F=\bigl\{\tilde s\in\mathbb R^n:\ \text{for all } i,j,\ \tilde s_i=\tilde s_j\ \text{or}\ |\tilde s_i-\tilde s_j|\ge 1\bigr\}.F={s~∈Rn: for all i,j, s~i​=s~j​ or ∣s~i​−s~j​∣≥1}.

The average opinion is xˉ(t)=1n∑ixi(t)\bar x(t)=\frac1n\sum_i x_i(t)xˉ(t)=n1​∑i​xi​(t), and V(x(t))=∑i(xi(t)−xˉ(t))2V(x(t))=\sum_i\bigl(x_i(t)-\bar x(t)\bigr)^2V(x(t))=∑i​(xi​(t)−xˉ(t))2 is the sum of squared differences from it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Every proper solution xxx of (2.1) converges to a limit in FFF:

∃ x∗∈F:lim⁡t→∞x(t)=x∗,\exists\,x^*\in F:\qquad \lim_{t\to\infty}x(t)=x^*,∃x∗∈F:t→∞lim​x(t)=x∗,

that is, all limits exist and two agents with different limits end at distance at least 1.

Milestones, in the order the argument uses them

  1. Order preservation (§2.1, p. 5218): if xi(t)≥xj(t)x_i(t)\ge x_j(t)xi​(t)≥xj​(t) for some ttt, then xi(t′)≥xj(t′)x_i(t')\ge x_j(t')xi​(t′)≥xj​(t′) for every t′≥tt'\ge tt′≥t.
  2. Proposition 1 (p. 5218): xˉ\bar xxˉ is constant, V(x(t))V(x(t))V(x(t)) is nonincreasing, and outside a countable set of times dV/dtdV/dtdV/dt is negative when x(t)∉Fx(t)\notin Fx(t)∈/F and zero when x(t)∈Fx(t)\in Fx(t)∈F.
  3. Monotone partial sums (2.3) (p. 5219): for a sorted initial condition and every kkk, outside a countable set of times the derivative of ∑i≤kxi(t)\sum_{i\le k}x_i(t)∑i≤k​xi​(t) equals ∑i≤k∑j>k: ∣xi−xj∣<1(xj−xi)≥0\sum_{i\le k}\sum_{j>k:\,|x_i-x_j|<1}(x_j-x_i)\ge 0∑i≤k​∑j>k:∣xi​−xj​∣<1​(xj​−xi​)≥0, and ∑i≤kxi(t)\sum_{i\le k}x_i(t)∑i≤k​xi​(t) is nondecreasing in ttt.
  4. Convergence of each opinion (p. 5219): every xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t) has a limit as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 establishes the clustering behaviour seen in simulations for every proper solution. The paper's Theorem 1 states that almost every initial condition is proper, so the conclusion covers almost every initial condition. The lower bound 1 on the distance between clusters is the baseline that the paper's continuum analysis improves to 1+min⁡{WA,WB}/max⁡{WA,WB}1+\min\{W_A,W_B\}/\max\{W_A,W_B\}1+min{WA​,WB​}/max{WA​,WB​}. Average preservation and the decrease of VVV (Proposition 1) are the structural facts that the continuum model also has.

Formalization. Theorem 2 is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists on Prove2Me or, as far as is known, elsewhere. The mission produces a Lean definition of solutions of a discontinuous integral equation with a state-dependent neighbour graph, and a convergence proof for it. The remaining work is to formalize the known argument, from the integral equation to the existence and location of the limit.

Difficulty

The obvious approach treats (1.1) as an ODE and differentiates along trajectories. That fails because the right-hand side is discontinuous in the state. A solution is only an integral solution, it may fail to be differentiable, and derivative identities such as (2.3) hold only outside an exceptional set of times. Every step from a derivative sign to a monotonicity or limit statement therefore has to go through the integral equation, not the differential one. A second obstacle is that pairs of agents at distance exactly 1 sit on the discontinuity of the interaction rule. This is where uniqueness fails (footnote 3 of the paper) and why conditions (a)–(c) are hypotheses. A decreasing Lyapunov function VVV alone does not give convergence of the trajectory to a single point, so Proposition 1 does not by itself settle Theorem 2.

Formalization scope

Agents are Fin n. Time is ℝ, and only values at t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 enter. A trajectory is x : ℝ → Fin n → ℝ. A solution of (2.1) is continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and satisfies (2.1) for every t≥0t\ge 0t≥0 and every iii, with the neighbour set Finset.univ.filter (fun j => |x τ i - x τ j| < 1). The integrand is also required to be interval-integrable on [0,t][0,t][0,t]; for a continuous trajectory this always holds. Explicit readings of the paper's phrases:

  • "unique solution" in (a) is uniqueness among all solutions of (2.1), with no sortedness or differentiability assumed;
  • condition (b) is "for every TTT, the non-differentiability times in [0,T][0,T][0,T] form a finite set", which is equivalent for subsets of [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞);
  • "converges to a limit" is Tendsto x atTop (𝓝 xstar) in Fin n → ℝ, with real time;
  • "with the exception of a countable set of times" is the existence of a countable set SSS outside which the derivative of V(x(t))V(x(t))V(x(t)) exists and has the stated sign;
  • "constant" and "nonincreasing" are on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞);
  • Proposition 1 assumes n≥1n\ge1n≥1 so that xˉ\bar xxˉ is meaningful.

The paper's sortedness convention ("we assume … that the components of proper initial conditions are sorted") is a hypothesis only of the partial-sum milestone. Theorem 2 is stated for every proper solution. A formalization that dropped condition (a), restricted solutions to sorted, differentiable or eventually constant trajectories, or replaced (2.1) by the differential equation would prove a different, and in parts trivial, statement. These are excluded.

The work needs interval integrals and the fundamental theorem of calculus for integrands with jumps, monotonicity from almost-everywhere derivative signs, and bounded monotone convergence. The definition of solutions of (2.1) and the equilibrium set is reusable for the stability results of the same paper (Theorem 3), which are not part of this mission. Contributions are welcome at every milestone, as are alternative convergence proofs, such as the paper's reference [9], that avoid symmetry.

Selected references

  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, Continuous-time average-preserving opinion dynamics with opinion-dependent communications, SIAM J. Control Optim. 48(8), 2010, 5214–5240. https://doi.org/10.1137/090766188
  • V. D. Blondel, J. M. Hendrickx, J. N. Tsitsiklis, On Krause's multi-agent consensus model with state-dependent connectivity, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 54(11), 2009, 2586–2597. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2009.2031211
  • A. Jadbabaie, J. Lin, A. S. Morse, Coordination of groups of mobile autonomous agents using nearest neighbor rules, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 48(6), 2003, 988–1001. https://doi.org/10.1109/TAC.2003.812781
  • J. Lorenz, Continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence: a survey, Internat. J. Modern Phys. C 18(12), 2007, 1819–1838. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0129183107011789
  • R. Olfati-Saber, J. A. Fax, R. M. Murray, Consensus and cooperation in networked multi-agent systems, Proc. IEEE 95(1), 2007, 215–233. https://doi.org/10.1109/JPROC.2006.887293
  • U. Krause, Soziale Dynamiken mit vielen Interakteuren. Eine Problemskizze, in Modellierung und Simulation von Dynamiken mit vielen interagierenden Akteuren, Universität Bremen, 1997, 37–51.
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Linear OptimizationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing 2: The Phased Online Fractional Covering Scheme Covers Every Constraint to 1/B at Cost at Most 8 log(2n)/B Times the OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Online covering models decisions that must be made as requirements arrive. A planner knows the cost of each available resource, but learns the requirements one at a time and cannot undo an allocation already made. This occurs, for example, when requests for network service or elements needing coverage appear over time. The central question is how much more an online fractional allocation can cost than a best allocation chosen after all requirements are known. Buchbinder and Naor study this question through a paired covering and packing linear program and give an online scheme for arbitrary nonnegative constraint coefficients, not only incidence coefficients in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, §§2–4).

The result targeted here is Theorem 4.1 of that paper. It concerns the fractional covering scheme of §4, before the separate extension to box constraints in §4.1. The theorem is a statement about the particular phased scheme, so the scheme's state and update rule form part of the mathematical setting. The online requirement also matters: after each new constraint, earlier allocations remain in force (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 4, 8).

Setting

Let III be a finite nonempty set of nnn primal variables and let k=0,…,m−1k=0,\ldots,m-1k=0,…,m−1 index constraints in arrival order. The known cost of variable iii is ci>0c_i>0ci​>0. Constraint kkk has coefficient aik≥0a_{ik}\ge0aik​≥0 for variable iii; when it arrives, the online algorithm learns its coefficients. The normalized offline covering problem minimizes ∑icizi\sum_i c_i z_i∑i​ci​zi​ over zi≥0z_i\ge0zi​≥0 subject to ∑iaikzi≥1\sum_i a_{ik}z_i\ge1∑i​aik​zi​≥1 for every constraint considered. Its packing dual maximizes ∑kyk\sum_k y_k∑k​yk​ over yk≥0y_k\ge0yk​≥0 subject to ∑kaikyk≤ci\sum_k a_{ik}y_k\le c_i∑k​aik​yk​≤ci​ for each iii. The finite data and sign conventions are those of Figure 1 (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 3–4).

The scheme accepts a parameter B>0B>0B>0 and asks for coverage only to 1/B1/B1/B. It maintains a sequence of phases. The first phase bound α1\alpha_1α1​ is B−1B^{-1}B−1 times the least ratio ci/ai0c_i/a_{i0}ci​/ai0​ among the positive coefficients of the first constraint. The bound doubles at a restart. Within a phase, the vector yyy begins at zero, the initial primal allocation is xi=α/(2nci)x_i=\alpha/(2nc_i)xi​=α/(2nci​), and the allocation subsequently follows the exponential expression on page 8. The current phase may need to process constraints already seen in earlier phases. Old phase vectors are retained: the actual online allocation is the coordinatewise maximum of the current and all finished phase vectors. Thus resetting a phase does not retract an earlier allocation (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, p. 8).

Formalization targets

Theorem 4.1: coverage and competitive cost

For every nonempty arrival prefix of length JJJ, a run of the phased scheme exists. Every completed run has output xxx satisfying

∑iaikxi≥1B(k<J),\sum_i a_{ik}x_i\ge\frac1B\qquad(k<J),i∑​aik​xi​≥B1​(k<J),

and, for every nonnegative offline comparison vector zzz satisfying ∑iaikzi≥1\sum_i a_{ik}z_i\ge1∑i​aik​zi​≥1 for each k<Jk<Jk<J,

∑icixi≤8log⁡(2n)B∑icizi.\sum_i c_i x_i\le\frac{8\log(2n)}{B}\sum_i c_i z_i.i∑​ci​xi​≤B8log(2n)​i∑​ci​zi​.

The paper states the ratio as O(log⁡n/B)O(\log n/B)O(logn/B). Its closing display on page 9 yields the explicit factor 8log⁡(2n)/B8\log(2n)/B8log(2n)/B used here. The benchmark uses the unscaled covering constraints of Figure 1; replacing them with constraints at 1/B1/B1/B would change the guarantee (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, Theorem 4.1 and proof, pp. 8–9).

The four claims within its proof

The milestone list follows the four claims printed under Theorem 4.1. A finished phase has dual objective at least Bαr/(2log⁡(2n))B\alpha_r/(2\log(2n))Bαr​/(2log(2n)); every phase dual vector satisfies the packing constraints; the sum of phase primal costs through the current phase is less than 2αr2\alpha_r2αr​; and the actual allocation covers every arrived constraint to 1/B1/B1/B. These are statements about the phase records of the scheme, including a partly processed round that ends in a restart (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 8–9).

Significance

The theorem gives a cost guarantee for a general online covering problem while allowing arbitrary nonnegative coefficients. It separates the cost paid by an allocation from the level of coverage requested through BBB. Its four claims identify the quantities that make the guarantee meaningful: the dual vector certifies a lower bound for an offline comparison, the phase costs control the online expenditure, and the output remains feasible as constraints arrive. The same primal–dual setting is used elsewhere in the paper for online packing and for applications of covering and packing methods (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, §§3–5).

The paper proves Theorem 4.1. This mission asks for a machine-checked account of the known result and of the scheme to which it applies. A published formal restatement, OnlinePrimalDual.GeneralPacking.theorem14_3, already gives a ratio conclusion under an assumed ratio bound and an assumed weak-duality inequality; those hypotheses contain the main work needed here. The present goal instead quantifies over runs generated by the update rule and asks both that a run exists and that all such runs satisfy the guarantees. The published general instance definition is reused, so the finite covering and packing data have a shared interface.

Difficulty

An online allocation cannot be evaluated solely from its final vector. A phase restart resets the working dual vector and restarts the constraint scan, while allocations from completed phases still affect the actual output. A statement about arbitrary vectors with a presumed cost bound would leave out this behavior. The continuous update also requires a precise stopping event when coverage or the phase cost reaches its threshold. The cost guarantee is sensitive to which condition wins if both occur together, and to whether a phase can restart indefinitely. Those details must be represented before any claim about completed phases has the paper's meaning (Buchbinder and Naor, 2009, pp. 8–9).

Formalization scope

Lean uses OnlinePrimalDual.GeneralPacking.GeneralInstance I (Fin m) for the coefficient matrix and costs. A nonempty finite type III represents the nnn primal variables; Fin m supplies the ordered constraints. The theorem assumes m≥1m\ge1m≥1, B>0B>0B>0, and a positive coefficient in every constraint. The last condition makes each arriving constraint coverable and makes the first ratio minimum nonempty; zero coefficients are omitted from that minimum. The paper treats infeasible all-zero rows implicitly. The minimum is over a finite nonempty set, so the real infimum in the Lean definition equals the ordinary minimum. All sums are finite and all logarithms are natural.

The run is an event relation with three events: arrival of one new constraint after all known constraints have been processed, completion of a covered round at its first stopping time, and restart at the cost cap while coverage remains deficient. A restart doubles α\alphaα, records the old phase, resets the dual variables, and resumes at the first known constraint. The state records the current phase and all finished phases; the output takes their coordinatewise maximum. A simultaneous coverage and cost event counts as covered. Reaching the cost cap models the continuous stopping time behind the paper's wording that the cost “exceeds” the bound. The theorem asserts run existence, so a ratio claim cannot hold merely because the run relation has no witness.

The explicit O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) instantiation in this mission is 8log⁡(2n)/B8\log(2n)/B8log(2n)/B, from the page 9 closing display. The first-phase case is bounded there by 1/B1/B1/B times the optimum and is included in the same stated coefficient. The comparison vector must satisfy the original level-one constraints. Theorem 4.2, which adds upper bounds on variables and appears in §4.1, is outside this mission. The run definition, phase-cost and coverage functions, and the four claims are reusable infrastructure for later work on continuous online primal–dual schemes.

Selected references

  • Niv Buchbinder and Joseph Naor, Online Primal-Dual Algorithms for Covering and Packing, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2009. DOI: 10.1287/moor.1080.0363.
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Convex OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization I: With a Cyclic Order and a Diminishing Stepsize, Incremental Subgradient-Proximal Methods Converge to an Optimal SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

Many optimization problems in machine learning, signal processing and distributed computation have an objective that is a sum of a large number mmm of component functions: one per data point, per sensor, or per processor. Evaluating the whole sum, or a subgradient of it, at every iteration is expensive when mmm is large. Incremental methods process one component at a time, cycling through the components or sampling them, and update the iterate after each one. Incremental gradient and subgradient methods go back to the training of neural networks and to least squares; incremental proximal methods replace the subgradient step of a component by a proximal step, which is more stable and handles nonsmooth terms exactly.

Bertsekas (LIDS-P-2847, 2010, rev. 2011; Math. Program. 129 (2011)) proposed a unified family that mixes the two: each component is split as Fi=fi+hiF_i=f_i+h_iFi​=fi​+hi​, a proximal step is taken on fif_ifi​ and a subgradient step on hih_ihi​, followed by a projection onto the constraint set. This mission formalizes the convergence analysis of that family under the cyclic order of component selection.

Timeline. Incremental subgradient methods were analysed by Nedić and Bertsekas (SIAM J. Optim. 12 (2001)) for cyclic and randomized orders. Incremental proximal methods were studied by Bertsekas (Optimization for Machine Learning, 2011, ch. 4). The 2011 paper combines the two analyses; its cyclic-order results are Propositions 3–6.

Setting

Let Rn\mathbb R^nRn carry the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ and inner product x′yx'yx′y. The data are a nonempty closed convex set X⊆RnX\subseteq\mathbb R^nX⊆Rn and real-valued convex functions fi,hi:Rn→Rf_i,h_i:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb Rfi​,hi​:Rn→R, i=1,…,mi=1,\dots,mi=1,…,m. The problem is

minimize F(x)=∑i=1mFi(x),Fi=fi+hi,subject to x∈X,\text{minimize } F(x)=\sum_{i=1}^m F_i(x),\qquad F_i=f_i+h_i,\qquad\text{subject to } x\in X,minimize F(x)=i=1∑m​Fi​(x),Fi​=fi​+hi​,subject to x∈X,

with optimal value F∗=inf⁡x∈XF(x)F^*=\inf_{x\in X}F(x)F∗=infx∈X​F(x), possibly −∞-\infty−∞, and optimal set X∗={x∗∈X:F(x∗)=F∗}X^*=\{x^*\in X:F(x^*)=F^*\}X∗={x∗∈X:F(x∗)=F∗}, possibly empty.

A subgradient ∇~f(x)\tilde\nabla f(x)∇~f(x) of a convex fff at xxx is a vector ggg with f(y)≥f(x)+g′(y−x)f(y)\ge f(x)+g'(y-x)f(y)≥f(x)+g′(y−x) for all yyy; PX(u)P_X(u)PX​(u) is the point of XXX nearest to uuu. At iteration kkk one component iki_kik​ is processed with stepsize αk>0\alpha_k>0αk​>0. The three iterations are

(19)zk=PX(xk−αk∇~fik(zk)),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hik(zk)),(20)zk=xk−αk∇~fik(zk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~hik(zk)),(21)zk=xk−αk∇~hik(xk),xk+1=PX(zk−αk∇~fik(xk+1)).\begin{aligned} &(19)\quad z_k=P_X\big(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(z_k)\big),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(z_k)\big),\\ &(20)\quad z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(z_k),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(z_k)\big),\\ &(21)\quad z_k=x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla h_{i_k}(x_k),&& x_{k+1}=P_X\big(z_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f_{i_k}(x_{k+1})\big). \end{aligned}​(19)zk​=PX​(xk​−αk​∇~fik​​(zk​)),(20)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~fik​​(zk​),(21)zk​=xk​−αk​∇~hik​​(xk​),​​xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hik​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~hik​​(zk​)),xk+1​=PX​(zk​−αk​∇~fik​​(xk+1​)).​

The fff-subgradient is taken at the new point, which makes the fff-part a proximal step (Proposition 1). In the cyclic order ik=(k mod m)+1i_k=(k\bmod m)+1ik​=(kmodm)+1; a block of mmm consecutive iterations is a cycle, and αk\alpha_kαk​ is constant within a cycle.

The analysis assumes that the subgradients the iteration uses are bounded by a constant ccc and that, at each cycle start k>0k>0k>0, the function values at the intermediate points of the cycle differ from those at xkx_kxk​ by at most ccc times the distance (Assumption 1 for (19), (20); Assumption 2 for (21)). Both hold, for example, when all fif_ifi​, hih_ihi​ are polyhedral or Lipschitz.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6

If αk→0\alpha_k\to0αk​→0 and ∑kαk=∞\sum_k\alpha_k=\infty∑k​αk​=∞, then

lim inf⁡k→∞F(xk)=F∗,\liminf_{k\to\infty}F(x_k)=F^*,k→∞liminf​F(xk​)=F∗,

and if moreover X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅ and ∑kαk2<∞\sum_k\alpha_k^2<\infty∑k​αk2​<∞, then xk→x∗x_k\to x^*xk​→x∗ for some x∗∈X∗x^*\in X^*x∗∈X∗. Both parts are one item, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1: the proximal iteration over XXX equals PX(xk−αk∇~f(xk+1))P_X(x_k-\alpha_k\tilde\nabla f(x_{k+1}))PX​(xk​−αk​∇~f(xk+1​)), and ∥xk+1−y∥2≤∥xk−y∥2−2αk(f(xk+1)−f(y))−∥xk−xk+1∥2\|x_{k+1}-y\|^2\le\|x_k-y\|^2-2\alpha_k(f(x_{k+1})-f(y))-\|x_k-x_{k+1}\|^2∥xk+1​−y∥2≤∥xk​−y∥2−2αk​(f(xk+1​)−f(y))−∥xk​−xk+1​∥2 for y∈Xy\in Xy∈X.
  2. Eq. (30) and Eq. (37): one-iteration estimates for (19)/(20) and for (21).
  3. Proposition 3: over one cycle, ∥xk+m−y∥2≤∥xk−y∥2−2αk(F(xk)−F(y))+αk2βm2c2\|x_{k+m}-y\|^2\le\|x_k-y\|^2-2\alpha_k(F(x_k)-F(y))+\alpha_k^2\beta m^2c^2∥xk+m​−y∥2≤∥xk​−y∥2−2αk​(F(xk​)−F(y))+αk2​βm2c2, with β=1m+4\beta=\frac1m+4β=m1​+4 for (19), (20) and β=5m+4\beta=\frac5m+4β=m5​+4 for (21).
  4. Footnote 5: nonnegative sequences with Yk+1≤Yk−Zk+WkY_{k+1}\le Y_k-Z_k+W_kYk+1​≤Yk​−Zk​+Wk​ and ∑Wk<∞\sum W_k<\infty∑Wk​<∞ have YkY_kYk​ convergent.
  5. Proof of Proposition 6: ∥xk+1−xk∥≤2αkc\|x_{k+1}-x_k\|\le2\alpha_kc∥xk+1​−xk​∥≤2αk​c.
  6. Proposition 4 (constant stepsize α\alphaα): lim inf⁡F(xk)=F∗\liminf F(x_k)=F^*liminfF(xk​)=F∗ if F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞, and lim inf⁡F(xk)≤F∗+αβm2c2/2\liminf F(x_k)\le F^*+\alpha\beta m^2c^2/2liminfF(xk​)≤F∗+αβm2c2/2 otherwise.

Significance

Proposition 6 is the exact-convergence guarantee for the cyclic incremental subgradient-proximal methods: with a diminishing, non-summable stepsize they reach the optimal value whatever the starting point, and with square-summable stepsizes the iterates converge to a single optimal solution. It covers the pure incremental subgradient method (fi=0f_i=0fi​=0) and the pure incremental proximal method (hi=0h_i=0hi​=0) as special cases, and it is the template for the randomized-order analysis of the companion mission. Proposition 4 quantifies what a constant stepsize achieves.

These results are proved in the paper. None of them, nor the underlying estimates, is formalized on the platform or, to our knowledge, in Mathlib. The mission produces machine-checked versions of the proximal-step lemma for extended-real-valued functions on a constrained set, of the cycle estimate (27) with its explicit constants, and of the deterministic supermartingale convergence lemma, all reusable for other incremental and proximal methods.

Difficulty

The obvious argument treats one cycle as one step of a subgradient method on FFF. It fails because within a cycle the subgradients are taken at the intermediate points zk+j−1z_{k+j-1}zk+j−1​ or xk+j−1x_{k+j-1}xk+j−1​, not at xkx_kxk​, and the proximal steps use subgradients at the points they produce. The error between Fj(xk)F_j(x_k)Fj​(xk​) and FjF_jFj​ at those points must be controlled through the drift of the iterates during the cycle, and the bookkeeping differs between (19)/(20) and (21), which is why β\betaβ differs. For the second part of Proposition 6, convergence of the values in the lim inf⁡\liminfliminf sense does not by itself give convergence of the iterates, and X∗X^*X∗ may contain more than one point.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Components are Fin m (0-based), so iki_kik​ is k % m, and the paper's j=1,…,mj=1,\dots,mj=1,…,m with zk+j−1z_{k+j-1}zk+j−1​ becomes j=0,…,m−1j=0,\dots,m-1j=0,…,m−1 with z (k + j). m≥1m\ge1m≥1 is assumed (NeZero m).
  • PXP_XPX​ is a predicate (IsProj: a nearest point of XXX), not a choice function.
  • Each iteration is a relation Step between xkx_kxk​, zkz_kzk​, xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ and the two subgradients it uses, with the fff-subgradient at the point the paper names. A run records these subgradients, so Assumptions 1–2 bound exactly them. The assumptions are not replaced by Lipschitz continuity, which is only a sufficient condition (p. 9).
  • F∗F^*F∗ and lim inf⁡F(xk)\liminf F(x_k)liminfF(xk​) are taken in EReal; F∗=−∞F^*=-\inftyF∗=−∞ is allowed and no boundedness is assumed.
  • The standing assumptions of p. 4 (X nonempty closed convex, fi,hif_i,h_ifi​,hi​ convex), positive stepsizes, constancy within a cycle and Assumptions 1–2 (stated "throughout this section", p. 8) are explicit hypotheses of every statement, including the goal, whose sentence does not repeat them.
  • The starting point x0x_0x0​ is arbitrary, as in the paper. Assumptions 1–2 make the cycle-start conditions only for k>0k>0k>0, and the bound ∥xk+1−xk∥≤2αkc\|x_{k+1}-x_k\|\le2\alpha_kc∥xk+1​−xk​∥≤2αk​c needs xk∈Xx_k\in Xxk​∈X, which holds from k=1k=1k=1 on. Proposition 3 and the step bound are therefore stated for k>0k>0k>0 and k≥1k\ge1k≥1; this does not affect Propositions 4 and 6.
  • Proposition 1 is stated for extended-real-valued closed proper convex fff, as in the paper, using the published class Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ (MoreauProx.Characterization.GammaZero) and its subgradients, with relative interiors as Mathlib's intrinsicInterior.

The goal cannot be satisfied vacuously: a sorry-free check confirms that the hypotheses hold together (for n=1n=1n=1, m=2m=2m=2, X=RX=\mathbb RX=R, αk=1/(⌊k/2⌋+1)\alpha_k=1/(\lfloor k/2\rfloor+1)αk​=1/(⌊k/2⌋+1), X∗≠∅X^*\neq\emptysetX∗=∅). Restricting to Lipschitz components, to bounded-below FFF, or to x0∈Xx_0\in Xx0​∈X would state a weaker theorem and is ruled out.

Proofs of any item are welcome, as are general lemmas (the projection theorem as a variational inequality, the subdifferential sum rule under the relative-interior condition) that the proofs need.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Proximal Methods for Large Scale Convex Optimization, Report LIDS-P-2847, MIT, 2010 (rev. March 2011); Math. Program. 129(2) (2011) 163–195. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-011-0472-0
  • A. Nedić, D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Subgradient Methods for Nondifferentiable Optimization, SIAM J. Optim. 12(1) (2001) 109–138. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623499362111
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Incremental Gradient, Subgradient, and Proximal Methods for Convex Optimization: A Survey, in Optimization for Machine Learning, MIT Press, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.01030
  • D. P. Bertsekas, A. Nedić, A. E. Ozdaglar, Convex Analysis and Optimization, Athena Scientific, 2003.
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents 1: Placing Last an Eligible B-Job, Else a Least-Cost A-Job, Minimizes One Agent's Maximum Cost Under a Bound on the Other'sResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical scheduling theory optimizes one objective for one decision maker. Many shop floors are shared: two departments, two customers or two firms submit jobs to the same machine, and each cares only about how its own jobs are treated. Agnetis, Mirchandani, Pacciarelli and Pacifici, Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents (Operations Research 52(2), 2004), set up this two-agent scheduling model and classified the complexity of its single-machine cases for the standard objectives (maximum of regular cost functions, number of late jobs, total weighted completion time). The paper started a line of research on multi-agent scheduling; its notation 1∥fA:fB≤Q1\|f^A : f^B\le Q1∥fA:fB≤Q is the standard one in that literature.

This mission covers the paper's first case, §4: both agents measure a schedule by the largest cost among their own jobs. It is the case with a polynomial greedy algorithm, and it serves as the template for the paper's other cases.

Setting

Agent A owns jobs J1A,…,JnAAJ^A_1,\dots,J^A_{n_A}J1A​,…,JnA​A​ and agent B owns jobs J1B,…,JnBBJ^B_1,\dots,J^B_{n_B}J1B​,…,JnB​B​. Each job jjj has a processing time pj≥0p_j\ge0pj​≥0; all jobs are available at time 000. A schedule σ\sigmaσ is an ordering of all nA+nBn_A+n_BnA​+nB​ jobs, processed on one machine one after another from time 000 without idle time, so the completion time Cj(σ)C_j(\sigma)Cj​(σ) is the sum of the processing times of jjj and the jobs before it. Each A-job has a nondecreasing cost function fhAf^A_hfhA​ and each B-job a nondecreasing fkBf^B_kfkB​ (the costs are regular). The two objectives are

fmax⁡A(σ)=max⁡hfhA(ChA(σ)),fmax⁡B(σ)=max⁡kfkB(CkB(σ)).f^A_{\max}(\sigma)=\max_h f^A_h\big(C^A_h(\sigma)\big),\qquad f^B_{\max}(\sigma)=\max_k f^B_k\big(C^B_k(\sigma)\big).fmaxA​(σ)=hmax​fhA​(ChA​(σ)),fmaxB​(σ)=kmax​fkB​(CkB​(σ)).

The constrained optimization problem 1∥fmax⁡A:fmax⁡B≤Q1\|f^A_{\max} : f^B_{\max}\le Q1∥fmaxA​:fmaxB​≤Q asks for a schedule minimizing fmax⁡Af^A_{\max}fmaxA​ among those with fmax⁡B≤Qf^B_{\max}\le QfmaxB​≤Q (the feasible schedules). A schedule σ\sigmaσ is nondominated if no schedule σˉ\bar\sigmaσˉ has fmax⁡A(σˉ)≤fmax⁡A(σ)f^A_{\max}(\bar\sigma)\le f^A_{\max}(\sigma)fmaxA​(σˉ)≤fmaxA​(σ) and fmax⁡B(σˉ)≤fmax⁡B(σ)f^B_{\max}(\bar\sigma)\le f^B_{\max}(\sigma)fmaxB​(σˉ)≤fmaxB​(σ) with one inequality strict.

The backward rule of §4 builds a schedule from the end. With UUU the set of unscheduled jobs and τˉ=∑j∈Upj\bar\tau=\sum_{j\in U}p_jτˉ=∑j∈U​pj​ the time at which the next job placed will end, it places last any unscheduled B-job with fkB(τˉ)≤Qf^B_k(\bar\tau)\le QfkB​(τˉ)≤Q; if there is none, it places last an unscheduled A-job of least fhA(τˉ)f^A_h(\bar\tau)fhA​(τˉ); if neither exists, it stops and declares the instance infeasible.

The paper justifies the rule by a reduction to Lawler's single-agent problem 1∣prec∣fmax⁡1|prec|f_{\max}1∣prec∣fmax​ (Lawler 1973): every job gets one cost fif_ifi​ with values in [−∞,+∞][-\infty,+\infty][−∞,+∞], equal to fiAf^A_ifiA​ for A-jobs, to −∞-\infty−∞ for a B-job meeting the bound at time ttt and to +∞+\infty+∞ for one violating it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1, correctness of the backward rule

every complete output of the rule is optimal for 1∥fmax⁡A:fmax⁡B≤Q,andthe rule completes  ⟺  the instance is feasible.\text{every complete output of the rule is optimal for } 1\|f^A_{\max} : f^B_{\max}\le Q,\quad\text{and}\quad \text{the rule completes}\iff\text{the instance is feasible.}every complete output of the rule is optimal for 1∥fmaxA​:fmaxB​≤Q,andthe rule completes⟺the instance is feasible.

Both parts hold for every tie-breaking. The printed theorem states a running time O(nA2+nBlog⁡nB)O(n_A^2+n_B\log n_B)O(nA2​+nB​lognB​); only the correctness half is a target.

Milestones

  1. §4, the reduction: a minimizer of fmax⁡=max⁡ifi(Ci)f_{\max}=\max_i f_i(C_i)fmax​=maxi​fi​(Ci​) with finite value is optimal for the two-agent problem with fmax⁡A=fmax⁡∗f^A_{\max}=f^*_{\max}fmaxA​=fmax∗​; if the minimum is +∞+\infty+∞, the two-agent problem is infeasible.
  2. §4, the stopping rule: if the unscheduled set UUU contains no A-job and every B-job of UUU has fkB(τˉ)>Qf^B_k(\bar\tau)>QfkB​(τˉ)>Q, the instance is infeasible.
  3. Theorem 4.2: if σ∗\sigma^*σ∗ is optimal for 1∥fmax⁡A:fmax⁡B≤Q1\|f^A_{\max} : f^B_{\max}\le Q1∥fmaxA​:fmaxB​≤Q, QA=fmax⁡A(σ∗)Q_A=f^A_{\max}(\sigma^*)QA​=fmaxA​(σ∗), and σ~\tilde\sigmaσ~ is optimal for 1∥fmax⁡B:fmax⁡A≤QA1\|f^B_{\max} : f^A_{\max}\le Q_A1∥fmaxB​:fmaxA​≤QA​, then σ~\tilde\sigmaσ~ is nondominated.

Significance

The theorem shows that the two-agent problem with maximum-cost objectives is no harder than its single-agent counterpart: a greedy rule that gives priority to any B-job still within budget and otherwise serves agent A's cheapest job is optimal. Theorem 4.2 turns this into a point of the Pareto frontier with one more optimization, without the binary search over QQQ that §3 of the paper describes for the general case. In §11 the paper enumerates nondominated pairs by repeatedly solving the constrained problem, and §11.1 bounds their number for this case.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof that we know of. The single-agent theorem of Lawler is the subject of the published Prove2Me statement LawlerPrec.MinMax.lawler_rule_optimal, which is open; its costs are real-valued, so it does not apply directly to the ±∞\pm\infty±∞ costs of the reduction. This mission's results are self-contained and can be proved either through such a generalization or directly.

Difficulty

The rule is nondeterministic: any eligible B-job may be chosen, and ties among A-jobs are broken arbitrarily, so the optimality claim is about every possible output, not one canonical sequence. Lawler's exchange argument has to be carried through the extended-real costs, where a B-job's cost jumps from −∞-\infty−∞ to +∞+\infty+∞ at its deadline, and the ordering by B-first priority has to be shown to be one of Lawler's least-cost choices. The completeness half needs that a stuck state (no A-job left and every remaining B-job over budget at τˉ\bar\tauτˉ) rules out every schedule, not just the rule's.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin nA ⊕ Fin nB (Sum.inl h is Jh+1AJ^A_{h+1}Jh+1A​, Sum.inr k is Jk+1BJ^B_{k+1}Jk+1B​, 0-based). Schedules and completion times reuse the published definition MooreLateJobs.Shared.completionTime (Moore 1968): a duplicate-free list containing every job, processed from time 000 without idle time.
  • Processing times are real and nonnegative; cost functions are real-valued and monotone. QQQ is real (the paper says "an integer"; §4 never uses integrality). fmax⁡Af^A_{\max}fmaxA​ needs nA≥1n_A\ge1nA​≥1 and fmax⁡Bf^B_{\max}fmaxB​ needs nB≥1n_B\ge1nB​≥1; these are hypotheses where used.
  • Feasibility fmax⁡B≤Qf^B_{\max}\le QfmaxB​≤Q is stated job by job, fkB(CkB)≤Qf^B_k(C^B_k)\le QfkB​(CkB​)≤Q for every B-job.
  • The algorithm is a property of its finished output (IsBackwardRuleSeq): at every position mmm of the sequence, with UUU the jobs at positions 0,…,m0,\dots,m0,…,m and τˉ\bar\tauτˉ the completion time at position mmm, the job there is an eligible B-job if one exists in UUU, and otherwise an A-job of least fhA(τˉ)f^A_h(\bar\tau)fhA​(τˉ) in UUU. "Ties are broken arbitrarily" means the property admits every choice. "The rule stops" means no sequence through that state has the property, so "the rule completes" is the existence of a complete sequence with the property.
  • The reduction uses Lean's EReal with only maximum and order; "1|prec|f_max" is taken with the empty precedence relation. "Finite objective value" means the minimum is a real number.
  • The running time O(nA2+nBlog⁡nB)O(n_A^2+n_B\log n_B)O(nA2​+nB​lognB​) of Theorem 4.1 is not formalized, and neither is the remark that only the B-job of largest deadline need be examined.
  • Trivializations are ruled out: the goal quantifies over every sequence with the rule property and requires it to be optimal against every feasible schedule; the feasibility equivalence is stated in both directions; fmax⁡Af^A_{\max}fmaxA​ is a maximum over a nonempty set, never a default value.

The definitions (two-agent model, maximum costs, constrained problem, nondominance) are reusable by the rest of this series. Proofs of the milestones, and a generalization of Lawler's theorem to extended-real costs, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Agnetis, P. B. Mirchandani, D. Pacciarelli, A. Pacifici, Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents, Operations Research 52(2) (2004) 229–242. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0092
  • E. L. Lawler, Optimal Sequencing of a Single Machine Subject to Precedence Constraints, Management Science 19(5) (1973) 544–546. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.19.5.544
  • J. M. Moore, An n Job, One Machine Sequencing Algorithm for Minimizing the Number of Late Jobs, Management Science 15(1) (1968) 102–109. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.1.102
  • R. L. Graham, E. L. Lawler, J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, Optimization and Approximation in Deterministic Sequencing and Scheduling: A Survey, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 5 (1979) 287–326. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70356-X
8 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents 5: A Dynamic Program Gives the Minimum Number of Late Jobs of One Agent When the Other Accepts at Most Q Late JobsResearch Paper

Motivation

Multi-agent scheduling studies a machine shared by parties with their own jobs and their own objectives. Agnetis, Mirchandani, Pacciarelli and Pacifici (Oper. Res. 52(2), 2004) introduced the two-agent single-machine model: agents AAA and BBB each own a set of jobs, and the schedule must serve both. The paper frames this within multiagent systems, where agents negotiate the use of a common resource over time, and its schedules are meant to support that negotiation: either the best schedule for one agent given what the other accepts, or the whole set of nondominated (Pareto-optimal) schedules. The paper classifies the complexity of the constrained problems 1∥fA:fB≤Q1\|f^A : f^B \le Q1∥fA:fB≤Q for the classical regular objectives.

One of its polynomial cases concerns the number of late jobs on both sides: agent BBB accepts schedules in which at most QQQ of its jobs are late, and agent AAA minimizes the number of its own late jobs. For a single agent, minimizing the number of late jobs is solved by Moore's algorithm (Moore 1968), and a dynamic program of the Lawler–Moore type over jobs in due-date order solves related weighted versions (Lawler & Moore 1969). §7 of the 2004 paper adapts that dynamic program to two agents by tracking the number of late jobs of each agent separately.

Setting

There are n=nA+nBn = n_A + n_Bn=nA​+nB​ jobs J1,…,JnJ_1, \dots, J_nJ1​,…,Jn​, all available at time 000. Job JjJ_jJj​ has a processing time pj∈Np_j \in \mathbb Npj​∈N, a due date dj∈Nd_j \in \mathbb Ndj​∈N, and an owner, agent AAA or agent BBB. A schedule is a sequence of all nnn jobs processed on one machine from time 000 without idle time or preemption; the completion time CjC_jCj​ of JjJ_jJj​ is the sum of the processing times of JjJ_jJj​ and the jobs before it. Job JjJ_jJj​ is late if Cj>djC_j > d_jCj​>dj​ and early otherwise. ∑UiX\sum U^X_i∑UiX​ denotes the number of late jobs of agent XXX.

Given an integer Q≥0Q \ge 0Q≥0, the problem 1∥∑UiA:∑UiB≤Q1\|\sum U^A_i : \sum U^B_i \le Q1∥∑UiA​:∑UiB​≤Q asks for a schedule with ∑UiB≤Q\sum U^B_i \le Q∑UiB​≤Q (a feasible schedule) minimizing ∑UiA\sum U^A_i∑UiA​. An instance may have no feasible schedule at all.

The jobs are numbered in earliest-due-date (EDD) order, d1≤d2≤⋯≤dnd_1 \le d_2 \le \dots \le d_nd1​≤d2​≤⋯≤dn​. A partial schedule of {J1,…,Ji}\{J_1,\dots,J_i\}{J1​,…,Ji​} is described by its set EEE of early jobs: the jobs of EEE run first, in EDD order, each completing by its due date, and the other jobs of {J1,…,Ji}\{J_1,\dots,J_i\}{J1​,…,Ji​} count as late. The table C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k) is the minimum completion time ∑j∈Epj\sum_{j\in E} p_j∑j∈E​pj​ of the last early job over partial schedules of {J1,…,Ji}\{J_1,\dots,J_i\}{J1​,…,Ji​} with at most hhh late AAA-jobs and at most kkk late BBB-jobs, and +∞+\infty+∞ if there is none. It is computed by C(0,h,k)=0C(0,h,k) = 0C(0,h,k)=0, C=+∞C = +\inftyC=+∞ at a negative index, and

C(i,h,k)=min⁡{C(i−1,h,k)+pi+f(i,h,k); C(i−1,h−1,k)}C(i,h,k) = \min\{C(i-1,h,k) + p_i + f(i,h,k);\ C(i-1,h-1,k)\}C(i,h,k)=min{C(i−1,h,k)+pi​+f(i,h,k); C(i−1,h−1,k)}

when JiJ_iJi​ belongs to AAA (with k−1k-1k−1 in place of h−1h-1h−1 when JiJ_iJi​ belongs to BBB), where f(i,h,k)=+∞f(i,h,k) = +\inftyf(i,h,k)=+∞ if C(i−1,h,k)+pi>diC(i-1,h,k) + p_i > d_iC(i−1,h,k)+pi​>di​ and 000 otherwise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3, correctness

For a feasible instance with jobs in EDD order, C(n,h,Q)<+∞C(n,h,Q) < +\inftyC(n,h,Q)<+∞ for some hhh, and

h∗=min⁡{ h:C(nA+nB,h,Q)<+∞ }h^* = \min\{\, h : C(n_A+n_B, h, Q) < +\infty \,\}h∗=min{h:C(nA​+nB​,h,Q)<+∞}

is the optimal value of 1∥∑UiA:∑UiB≤Q1\|\sum U^A_i : \sum U^B_i \le Q1∥∑UiA​:∑UiB​≤Q: some feasible schedule has exactly h∗h^*h∗ late AAA-jobs, and every feasible schedule has at least h∗h^*h∗.

Milestone: Lemma 7.1

A feasible instance has an optimal schedule whose early jobs come first, in EDD order, and whose late jobs come last.

Milestone: Lemma 7.2

For 0≤i≤n0 \le i \le n0≤i≤n: if C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k) is finite, it is the minimum, attained, of ∑j∈Epj\sum_{j\in E} p_j∑j∈E​pj​ over partial schedules EEE of {J1,…,Ji}\{J_1,\dots,J_i\}{J1​,…,Ji​} with at most hhh late AAA-jobs and at most kkk late BBB-jobs; if C(i,h,k)=+∞C(i,h,k) = +\inftyC(i,h,k)=+∞, there is no such partial schedule.

Significance

The theorem places 1∥∑UiA:∑UiB≤Q1\|\sum U^A_i : \sum U^B_i \le Q1∥∑UiA​:∑UiB​≤Q among the polynomially solvable two-agent problems (Table 1 of the paper lists it as O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3)), in contrast with 1∥∑wiCiA:∑UiB1\|\sum w_iC^A_i : \sum U^B_i1∥∑wi​CiA​:∑UiB​, which the same paper shows binary NP-hard. Through the binary-search argument of §3.1, solving the constrained problem for every QQQ also yields the nondominated pairs (∑UiA,∑UiB)(\sum U^A_i, \sum U^B_i)(∑UiA​,∑UiB​) of the corresponding Pareto problem.

The result is proved in the paper; to the knowledge of this mission it has no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked correctness proof of the table, including the boundary convention, which the printed text leaves incomplete (see below). Further welcome work: the complexity bound in an explicit cost model, and the weighted variant.

Difficulty

The table is defined over partial schedules, in which the jobs outside the early set are only counted as late, while the problem is posed over complete sequences, in which lateness is measured: a job declared late may finish on time once it is appended. The correctness of h∗h^*h∗ must bridge the two objects in both directions, and the bridge is the structural Lemma 7.1, which the printed proofs use without detail. Lemma 7.2 is an optimal-substructure claim: it requires that the early set of {J1,…,Ji−1}\{J_1,\dots,J_{i-1}\}{J1​,…,Ji−1​} minimizing total processing time is also the right one to extend by JiJ_iJi​, which holds only because of the EDD numbering. Finally, the printed boundary gives only C(0,0,0)=0C(0,0,0) = 0C(0,0,0)=0; the natural reading C(0,h,k)=+∞C(0,h,k) = +\inftyC(0,h,k)=+∞ for h+k>0h + k > 0h+k>0 makes Theorem 7.3 false, so the boundary must be read from the definition of CCC, not from the display.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin n, 0-based, numbered in EDD order, with an owner label ag : Fin n → Agent; this follows the paper's single numbered list in §7 rather than separate index sets per agent. EDD order is the hypothesis Monotone d, ties allowed. Data pj,dj,Qp_j, d_j, Qpj​,dj​,Q are natural numbers.
  • Schedules and completion times are the published MooreLateJobs.Shared.completionTime (sequences without idle time) and late jobs the published MooreLateJobs.NumLate.lateSet (late iff dj<Cjd_j < C_jdj​<Cj​), reused as references with the data cast to R\mathbb RR.
  • The table takes values in WithTop ℕ, with ⊤ for +∞+\infty+∞; no large sentinel number is used. The boundary is C(0,h,k)=0C(0,h,k) = 0C(0,h,k)=0 for all h,k≥0h,k \ge 0h,k≥0, the value forced by the "at most" definition of CCC; a negative index gives +∞+\infty+∞; early means Cj≤djC_j \le d_jCj​≤dj​, as in the recursion (the proof of Lemma 7.2 prints a strict "<<<").
  • Lemma 7.2's "feasible schedules for the job set {J1,…,Ji}\{J_1,\dots,J_i\}{J1​,…,Ji​}" is read as partial schedules given by their early set, matching the definition of C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k)C(i,h,k). Over complete sequences with actual lateness the statement would be false (one AAA-job with p=1p = 1p=1, d=5d = 5d=5, h=1h = 1h=1: C(1,1,0)=0C(1,1,0) = 0C(1,1,0)=0, but the job always completes early at time 111).
  • Feasibility of the instance is a hypothesis of Lemma 7.1 and Theorem 7.3; h∗h^*h∗ is Nat.find of the existence clause, which the goal asserts.
  • The running time O(nA2nB+nAnB2)O(n_A^2 n_B + n_A n_B^2)O(nA2​nB​+nA​nB2​) of Theorem 7.3 is not formalized.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal fixes the table by its recursion and compares h∗h^*h∗ with the objective over all feasible sequences in both directions, so neither an arbitrary table nor a one-sided bound proves it.

Selected references

  • A. Agnetis, P. B. Mirchandani, D. Pacciarelli, A. Pacifici, Scheduling Problems with Two Competing Agents, Operations Research 52(2), 229–242, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0092
  • J. M. Moore, An n Job, One Machine Sequencing Algorithm for Minimizing the Number of Late Jobs, Management Science 15(1), 102–109, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.1.102
  • E. L. Lawler, J. M. Moore, A Functional Equation and its Application to Resource Allocation and Sequencing Problems, Management Science 16(1), 77–84, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.16.1.77
  • J. R. Jackson, Scheduling a Production Line to Minimize Maximum Tardiness, Research Report 43, Management Science Research Project, UCLA, 1955.
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Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search V: The Heuristic Equilibrium of No-Search Assortment Planning Is Never Deeper Than OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers decide which product variants to stock, and most assortment-planning tools model consumer choice with the multinomial logit (MNL) model: a consumer who does not find an acceptable variant simply leaves without buying. Cachon, Terwiesch and Xu (Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search, working paper of December 2002; published in MSOM 7(4), 2005, doi:10.1287/msom.1050.0088) point out that consumers also search: a consumer who likes what the store offers may still walk out to look elsewhere, and that is more likely when the assortment is narrow.

In practice a retailer does not know consumer preferences; it estimates them from sales data and re-plans. This mission formalizes §5.1 of the paper, which asks what happens when a retailer runs this estimate-and-replan loop with the traditional no-search MNL model while consumers actually search. The loop can settle at a heuristic equilibrium in the sense of Cachon and Kok (2002), and the question is how that equilibrium compares with the truly optimal assortment.

Setting

There are nnn product variants, labelled from most to least popular, with preferences v1≥v2≥⋯≥vn>0v_1\ge v_2\ge\dots\ge v_n>0v1​≥v2​≥⋯≥vn​>0, and a no-purchase option ("variant 0") with preference v0>0v_0>0v0​>0. An assortment of depth x∈{0,…,n}x\in\{0,\dots,n\}x∈{0,…,n} is the set {1,…,x}\{1,\dots,x\}{1,…,x}. Variant iii has margin mim_imi​, with mj≥mkm_j\ge m_kmj​≥mk​ whenever vj≥vkv_j\ge v_kvj​≥vk​ (monotone margins, p. 6), and carrying it at demand qqq incurs an operational cost c(q)c(q)c(q), where ccc is concave and increasing on [0,1][0,1][0,1] (demand is normalised to one consumer).

True demand: the independent assortment model. With a constant λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 (Theorem 1 of the paper: λ=exp⁡[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]\lambda=\exp[-(\bar U/\mu+\gamma)]λ=exp[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]) and Vx=v0+∑j=1xvjV_x=v_0+\sum_{j=1}^{x}v_jVx​=v0​+∑j=1x​vj​, the probability that a consumer searches is H(x)=e−λVxH(x)=e^{-\lambda V_x}H(x)=e−λVx​, and variant i≤xi\le xi≤x has demand

di(x)=viVx (1−H(x)).d_i(x)=\frac{v_i}{V_x}\,\bigl(1-H(x)\bigr).di​(x)=Vx​vi​​(1−H(x)).

The no-purchase demand is d0(x)=1−∑i=1xdi(x)d_0(x)=1-\sum_{i=1}^{x}d_i(x)d0​(x)=1−∑i=1x​di​(x), and the true profit is π(x)=∑i=1x(midi(x)−c(di(x)))\pi(x)=\sum_{i=1}^{x}\bigl(m_i d_i(x)-c(d_i(x))\bigr)π(x)=∑i=1x​(mi​di​(x)−c(di​(x))).

Estimates. Observing d0(x),…,dx(x)d_0(x),\dots,d_x(x)d0​(x),…,dx​(x) for x≥1x\ge1x≥1, the retailer fits the MNL model, normalised by v^1(x)=1\hat v_1(x)=1v^1​(x)=1: v^i(x)=di(x)/d1(x)\hat v_i(x)=d_i(x)/d_1(x)v^i​(x)=di​(x)/d1​(x) for 0≤i≤x0\le i\le x0≤i≤x, and for variants not carried it reuses the estimates v^i(n)\hat v_i(n)v^i​(n) from an initial depth test with the full assortment. The no-search model fed with preferences www predicts the shares qim(x∣w)=wi/(w0+∑j≤xwj)q_i^m(x\mid w)=w_i/(w_0+\sum_{j\le x}w_j)qim​(x∣w)=wi​/(w0​+∑j≤x​wj​) and the profit π(x∣w)=∑i≤x(miqim(x∣w)−c(qim(x∣w)))\pi(x\mid w)=\sum_{i\le x}\bigl(m_i q_i^m(x\mid w)-c(q_i^m(x\mid w))\bigr)π(x∣w)=∑i≤x​(mi​qim​(x∣w)−c(qim​(x∣w))).

Heuristic equilibrium. A depth 1≤x∗≤n1\le x^*\le n1≤x∗≤n is a heuristic equilibrium when x∗x^*x∗ maximises π(⋅∣v^(x∗))\pi(\cdot\mid\hat v(x^*))π(⋅∣v^(x∗)) over 0,…,n0,\dots,n0,…,n: the assortment is optimal for the estimated preferences, and the estimates are those observed under the assortment. An optimal depth xox^oxo maximises the true profit π\piπ over 0,…,n0,\dots,n0,…,n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8 (p. 23)

If x∗x^*x∗ is a heuristic equilibrium and xox^oxo is an optimal depth such that every deeper depth is strictly worse (π(x)<π(xo)\pi(x)<\pi(x^o)π(x)<π(xo) for xo<x≤nx^o<x\le nxo<x≤n), then

x∗≤xo.x^*\le x^o.x∗≤xo.

Milestones

  • IIA among product variants (p. 21): di(x)/dj(x)=vi/vjd_i(x)/d_j(x)=v_i/v_jdi​(x)/dj​(x)=vi​/vj​ for i,ji,ji,j in the assortment.
  • Correct relative estimates (p. 21): v^i(x)/v^j(x)=vi/vj\hat v_i(x)/\hat v_j(x)=v_i/v_jv^i​(x)/v^j​(x)=vi​/vj​ for all product variants 0<i<j≤n0<i<j\le n0<i<j≤n.
  • No-purchase ratio (p. 21): d0(x)di(x)=q0m(x)+∑j≤xqjm(x)H(x)qim(x)(1−H(x))\dfrac{d_0(x)}{d_i(x)}=\dfrac{q_0^m(x)+\sum_{j\le x}q_j^m(x)H(x)}{q_i^m(x)(1-H(x))}di​(x)d0​(x)​=qim​(x)(1−H(x))q0m​(x)+∑j≤x​qjm​(x)H(x)​.
  • ZZZ is decreasing (proof of Theorem 7): Z(δ)=δe−λδ/(1−e−λδ)Z(\delta)=\delta e^{-\lambda\delta}/(1-e^{-\lambda\delta})Z(δ)=δe−λδ/(1−e−λδ) is non-increasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞).
  • Theorem 7 (p. 22): for 1≤x≤n1\le x\le n1≤x≤n,
d0(x′)≥q0m(x′∣v^(x))  (x′<x),d0(x′′)≤q0m(x′′∣v^(x))  (x<x′′≤n).d_0(x')\ge q_0^m(x'\mid\hat v(x))\ \ (x'<x),\qquad d_0(x'')\le q_0^m(x''\mid\hat v(x))\ \ (x<x''\le n).d0​(x′)≥q0m​(x′∣v^(x))  (x′<x),d0​(x′′)≤q0m​(x′′∣v^(x))  (x<x′′≤n).
  • Exact prediction at the estimating assortment: π(x)=π(x∣v^(x))\pi(x)=\pi(x\mid\hat v(x))π(x)=π(x∣v^(x)).
  • No loss-making variant at equilibrium: miqim(x∗∣v^(x∗))−c(qim(x∗∣v^(x∗)))≥0m_iq_i^m(x^*\mid\hat v(x^*))-c(q_i^m(x^*\mid\hat v(x^*)))\ge0mi​qim​(x∗∣v^(x∗))−c(qim​(x∗∣v^(x∗)))≥0 for i≤x∗i\le x^*i≤x∗.
  • Over-estimation of narrower assortments: π(x)≤π(x∣v^(x∗))\pi(x)\le\pi(x\mid\hat v(x^*))π(x)≤π(x∣v^(x∗)) for 1≤x<x∗1\le x<x^*1≤x<x∗.

Significance

Theorem 8 says that a retailer who ignores consumer search and plans iteratively from its own sales data can only err on the side of a too-narrow assortment, never a too-deep one. The bias is structural: Theorem 7 shows that the estimates get every product variant's relative preference right but misjudge the no-purchase option in a direction fixed by the depth. The result thus separates the part of the MNL model that survives consumer search (IIA among products) from the part that does not (IIA with respect to the no-purchase option).

The results are proved in the paper, by short arguments, but some steps are only asserted: the non-negativity of variant profits at the equilibrium is attributed to "the previous section", and the overlapping assortment model is dismissed with "the similar process". No machine-checked proof of these results is known. A formalization makes explicit the hypotheses the paper leaves implicit (c(0)≥0c(0)\ge0c(0)≥0, and a strict-deeper condition on xox^oxo in place of the presumed uniqueness of the optimum), and delivers a reusable formal model of MNL estimation under search.

Difficulty

Each step is elementary, and the difficulty lies in keeping two profit functions apart and carrying the right inequalities between them. The tempting shortcut, "the estimates are correct, so the no-search optimum is the true optimum", fails: the estimates are correct only up to the no-purchase preference v^0(x)\hat v_0(x)v^0​(x), which depends on xxx, and that single number shifts every predicted share. The proof of Theorem 7 must reduce the comparison of v^0(x′)\hat v_0(x')v^0​(x′) and v^0(x)\hat v_0(x)v^0​(x) to the monotonicity of the function ZZZ. The step from no-purchase demand to profit needs every predicted variant profit to be non-negative, which requires the monotone labelling of preferences and margins together with concavity of ccc and c(0)≥0c(0)\ge0c(0)≥0; the paper asserts it without proof.

Formalization scope

  • Variants are Fin n, 0-based: the paper's variant iii is index i−1i-1i−1. Depths are natural numbers, and depth xxx is the published RetailVariety.Structure.popularSet n x; the MNL share is the published RetailVariety.Structure.share.
  • The no-purchase option is not an element of Fin n; its preference v0v_0v0​ and estimate v^0(x)\hat v_0(x)v^0​(x) are separate reals.
  • λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 is a free parameter standing for Theorem 1's exp⁡[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]\exp[-(\bar U/\mu+\gamma)]exp[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]; the results use only λ>0\lambda>0λ>0.
  • c:R→Rc:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rc:R→R is concave and monotone on [0,1][0,1][0,1], with the added hypothesis c(0)≥0c(0)\ge0c(0)≥0. Margins and preferences are antitone in the index (the paper's standing assumptions, pp. 5–6).
  • The estimates are defined by the closed-form solution of the paper's linear system; for variants not carried, by the depth-test values v^i(n)\hat v_i(n)v^i​(n). They are used only for 1≤x≤n1\le x\le n1≤x≤n.
  • Optimality, for both x∗x^*x∗ (predicted profit) and xox^oxo (true profit), is over depths 0,…,n0,\dots,n0,…,n, as in the paper's proof.
  • Only the independent assortment model is formalized. The overlapping model is asserted by the paper with "the similar logic" and "the similar process", and would also need the search threshold Uˉ(x)\bar U(x)Uˉ(x) to be monotone in xxx, which the paper asserts on p. 17 without proof.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the estimates are not the true preferences (in particular v^0≠v0\hat v_0\ne v_0v^0​=v0​, which would force x∗=xox^*=x^ox∗=xo); xox^oxo is not an arbitrary maximiser but one with all deeper depths strictly worse; x∗=0x^*=0x∗=0, where nothing is observed, is excluded rather than given junk estimates; and nothing is claimed for the overlapping model.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, in particular Theorem 7 and the positivity step, and a formal treatment of the overlapping model with its additional hypotheses.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, C. Terwiesch, Y. Xu, Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search, working paper, The Wharton School, December 20, 2002 (the version cited here); published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 7(4):330–346, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1050.0088
  • G. P. Cachon, A. G. Kok, Heuristic equilibrium in the newsvendor model with clearance pricing, working paper, 2002; published in Management Science 53(3):934–951, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0661
  • G. J. van Ryzin, S. Mahajan, On the relationship between inventory costs and variety benefits in retail assortments, Management Science 45(11):1496–1509, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.11.1496
11 thms1 active userReviewed
OptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search I: Under Independent-Assortment Search, a Variant's Demand Falls Strictly as the Assortment ExpandsResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer choosing which variants of a product to stock (colours, sizes, models) faces a trade-off that operations management has studied since van Ryzin and Mahajan (1999): a deeper assortment attracts more purchases, but each added variant takes demand away from the variants already on the shelf. This loss is called cannibalization. In the standard model of consumer choice, the multinomial logit (MNL), cannibalization holds exactly: every variant's purchase probability falls when a variant is added.

The MNL assumes that a consumer who walks into a store buys either from that store or nothing. Real consumers can also leave to search elsewhere, and a deeper assortment makes them less likely to leave. Cachon, Terwiesch and Xu (working paper, 2002; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2005, doi:10.1287/msom.1050.0088) add search to the MNL and ask whether cannibalization survives. Two forces now act on a variant's demand when the assortment expands: the share of buyers who choose it falls, and the share of consumers who stay in the store rises. This mission formalizes their answer for the first of their two search models, the independent assortment model, in which the outside option does not depend on what the retailer stocks.

Setting

There are nnn possible variants N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}; the retailer stocks an assortment S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N. A faux variant 000 represents not buying.

Gumbel shocks. Fix a scale μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and let γ\gammaγ be Euler's constant. The zero-mean Gumbel law with scale μ\muμ has distribution function and density

F(x)=exp⁡[−exp⁡(−(xμ+γ))],f(x)=F′(x).F(x)=\exp\Big[-\exp\Big(-\Big(\frac{x}{\mu}+\gamma\Big)\Big)\Big],\qquad f(x)=F'(x).F(x)=exp[−exp(−(μx​+γ))],f(x)=F′(x).

Utilities. Variant jjj has expected net utility uj−pju_j-p_juj​−pj​ (utility minus price), and the no-purchase option has u0u_0u0​ (its price is p0=0p_0=0p0​=0). A consumer's realised utilities are Uj=(uj−pj)+ζjU_j=(u_j-p_j)+\zeta_jUj​=(uj​−pj​)+ζj​ and U0=u0+ζ0U_0=u_0+\zeta_0U0​=u0​+ζ0​, with ζ0,ζ1,…,ζn\zeta_0,\zeta_1,\dots,\zeta_nζ0​,ζ1​,…,ζn​ independent and Gumbel. The preference of variant jjj is vj=exp⁡((uj−pj)/μ)v_j=\exp((u_j-p_j)/\mu)vj​=exp((uj​−pj​)/μ), and v0=exp⁡(u0/μ)v_0=\exp(u_0/\mu)v0​=exp(u0​/μ).

No search. The consumer buys the variant of SSS with the highest utility, or nothing if U0U_0U0​ is higher. The probability that she buys i∈Si\in Si∈S is qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S).

Search. A consumer may instead search at a cost bbb and receive Ur=ur+ζrU_r=u_r+\zeta_rUr​=ur​+ζr​, where ζr\zeta_rζr​ is another independent Gumbel shock that she has not yet observed. Having seen y=Umax⁡y=U_{\max}y=Umax​, the best utility in the store, she searches when the expected gain minus the expected loss is at least bbb:

∫y−ur∞(ur+x−y)f(x) dx−∫−∞y−ur(y−ur−x)f(x) dx ≥ b.\int_{y-u_r}^{\infty}(u_r+x-y)f(x)\,dx-\int_{-\infty}^{y-u_r}(y-u_r-x)f(x)\,dx\ \ge\ b .∫y−ur​∞​(ur​+x−y)f(x)dx−∫−∞y−ur​​(y−ur​−x)f(x)dx ≥ b.

The independent-assortment demand qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) is the probability that variant iii has the highest utility in SSS, beats the no-purchase option, and the consumer does not search. Write Uˉ=ur−b\bar U=u_r-bUˉ=ur​−b (the search threshold), λ=exp⁡[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)]\lambda=\exp[-(\bar U/\mu+\gamma)]λ=exp[−(Uˉ/μ+γ)] and H(Uˉ,S)=exp⁡(−λ(v0+∑j∈Svj))H(\bar U,S)=\exp\big(-\lambda(v_0+\sum_{j\in S}v_j)\big)H(Uˉ,S)=exp(−λ(v0​+∑j∈S​vj​)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 9)

For all SSS and S+S^+S+ with i∈S⊊S+i\in S\subsetneq S^+i∈S⊊S+,

qisi(S) > qisi(S+).q_i^{si}(S)\ >\ q_i^{si}(S^+).qisi​(S) > qisi​(S+).

The goal leaves the utilities uj−pju_j-p_juj​−pj​, u0u_0u0​, uru_rur​, the search cost bbb, the scale μ\muμ and the number of variants nnn arbitrary.

Milestones

  1. The MNL formula (2): qim(S)=vi/(∑j∈Svj+v0)q_i^m(S)=v_i/(\sum_{j\in S}v_j+v_0)qim​(S)=vi​/(∑j∈S​vj​+v0​) for i=0i=0i=0 and i∈Si\in Si∈S.
  2. The Gumbel law with the constant γ\gammaγ has mean zero, E[ζr]=0E[\zeta_r]=0E[ζr​]=0.
  3. The search rule: search is worthwhile at yyy if and only if ur−b≥yu_r-b\ge yur​−b≥y.
  4. The integral representation of qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) over the realisation ϕ\phiϕ of ζi\zeta_iζi​.
  5. The change of variables δ=exp⁡[−(ϕ/μ+γ)]\delta=\exp[-(\phi/\mu+\gamma)]δ=exp[−(ϕ/μ+γ)] that turns it into ∫0αexp⁡[−δ(v0+∑j∈Svj)/vi] dδ\int_0^\alpha\exp[-\delta(v_0+\sum_{j\in S}v_j)/v_i]\,d\delta∫0α​exp[−δ(v0​+∑j∈S​vj​)/vi​]dδ.
  6. Theorem 1 (p. 8): qisi(S)=qim(S) (1−H(Uˉ,S))q_i^{si}(S)=q_i^m(S)\,\big(1-H(\bar U,S)\big)qisi​(S)=qim​(S)(1−H(Uˉ,S)) for i∈Si\in Si∈S.
  7. T(ω)=ω(1−e−λ/ω)T(\omega)=\omega(1-e^{-\lambda/\omega})T(ω)=ω(1−e−λ/ω) is strictly increasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), with the derivative the paper displays.
  8. qisi(S)=vi T((∑k∈Svk+v0)−1)q_i^{si}(S)=v_i\,T\big((\sum_{k\in S}v_k+v_0)^{-1}\big)qisi​(S)=vi​T((∑k∈S​vk​+v0​)−1).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that under independent-assortment search the demand for every stocked variant is its MNL demand scaled by one common factor, the probability 1−H(Uˉ,S)1-H(\bar U,S)1−H(Uˉ,S) that the best option in the store clears the threshold Uˉ\bar UUˉ. The threshold itself does not depend on the assortment. Theorem 2 then shows that the MNL's cannibalization effect dominates the retention effect of a deeper assortment, so each variant's demand still falls strictly when variants are added. The paper's later results on the shape of the profit function and on the structure of optimal assortments under search build on this closed form.

The paper's proofs are short but rely on steps it states without proof: the MNL formula is cited from Anderson, de Palma and Thisse (1992), the search rule is obtained "after rearranging terms", and the closed form follows from a change of variables. No machine-checked version of these steps is known. The mission produces a checked derivation of a logit-type closed form from an explicit random-utility model with an outside option and an endogenous stopping decision, at the paper's scale μ\muμ and with its centring constant γ\gammaγ.

Difficulty

Theorem 2 is not monotonicity of a single fraction. Adding a variant enlarges the denominator of qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S) and simultaneously raises the factor 1−H(Uˉ,S)1-H(\bar U,S)1−H(Uˉ,S), so the sign of the change is a competition between the two, and a bound on either factor alone does not settle it. The comparison becomes one-dimensional only after Theorem 1 is available, and Theorem 1 itself requires computing a probability of an event defined by finitely many strict inequalities among independent Gumbel variables together with the consumer's search decision. That calculation is an iterated integral over the product law, with the decision rule, the mean of the Gumbel law and the change of variables each needing their own justification.

Formalization scope

  • Indices. Variants are Fin n, 0-based (the paper's variant iii is index i−1i-1i−1). The no-purchase option is the extra index none of Option (Fin n). Assortments are Finset (Fin n), and S⊊S+S\subsetneq S^+S⊊S+ is S ⊂ Splus.
  • The law. IsZeroMeanGumbel μ G says the probability measure G on ℝ has distribution function FFF above; μ>0\mu>0μ>0 and γ\gammaγ is Real.eulerMascheroniConstant. Such a law exists for every μ>0\mu>0μ>0 (checked sorry-free locally).
  • The sample space is Option (Fin n) → ℝ with the product measure Measure.pi (fun _ => G). The search shock does not appear in it: the consumer decides before observing ζr\zeta_rζr​, so only its law enters, as integration against G in the search rule.
  • Demand. qim(S)q_i^m(S)qim​(S) (noSearchProb) and qisi(S)q_i^{si}(S)qisi​(S) (searchProb) are the real values of the probabilities of the choice events, with strict inequalities. The search event uses the paper's decision rule (the displayed integral), not the threshold Uˉ\bar UUˉ; the equivalence is a milestone. The closed form vi/(∑j∈Svj+v0)v_i/(\sum_{j\in S}v_j+v_0)vi​/(∑j∈S​vj​+v0​) is the published RetailVariety.Structure.share.
  • Corrected typo. The paper prints α=exp⁡[−((Uˉ−ui)/μ+γ)]\alpha=\exp[-((\bar U-u_i)/\mu+\gamma)]α=exp[−((Uˉ−ui​)/μ+γ)]; the change of variables gives ui−piu_i-p_iui​−pi​ in place of uiu_iui​, and the milestone states the corrected value.
  • TTT is used on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞); the paper's interval [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) includes a point where TTT is undefined.

Ruled out. Demand defined by the closed form (3), which would make Theorem 1 true by definition and Theorem 2 a calculus fact; Theorem 2 with ⊆\subseteq⊆ and ≥\ge≥; a standard Gumbel law (scale 111, mean γ\gammaγ) in place of the paper's zero-mean scale-μ\muμ law; and a model without the no-purchase option.

Infrastructure. A complete development needs the distribution theory of the Gumbel law (density, mean), choice probabilities of products of i.i.d. continuous variables as iterated integrals, and calculus for TTT. The Gumbel and MNL lemmas are reusable for any logit-based choice model, including the other missions of this series. Contributions of proofs of any milestone, or of general MNL infrastructure that the milestones can import, are welcome.

Selected references

  • G. P. Cachon, C. Terwiesch, Y. Xu, Retail Assortment Planning in the Presence of Consumer Search, working paper, The Wharton School, Dec. 20, 2002; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 7(4), 330–346, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1050.0088
  • S. P. Anderson, A. de Palma, J.-F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, MIT Press, 1992.
  • G. van Ryzin, S. Mahajan, On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments, Management Science 45(11), 1496–1509, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.11.1496
  • D. McFadden, Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior, in P. Zarembka (ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, 1974, 105–142.
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Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems II: The Empirical Measure of the Dense Graphon-Weighted Particle System Converges in Probability to the Averaged Graphon LawResearch Paper

Interacting diffusions on large weighted graphs

Classical mean field theory describes nnn exchangeable diffusions, each interacting with the empirical average of all the others. As n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞ the particles become independent copies of a McKean–Vlasov process (propagation of chaos). Many systems of interest are not exchangeable. Particles sit at the vertices of a network and interact only with their neighbours, as in models of opinion dynamics, epidemics on contact networks, synchronisation of oscillators and systemic risk in financial networks. When the network is dense and its adjacency structure converges, the natural limit object is a graphon, a symmetric measurable function G:[0,1]2→[0,1]G:[0,1]^2\to[0,1]G:[0,1]2→[0,1] that encodes the limiting edge density between "positions" u,v∈[0,1]u,v\in[0,1]u,v∈[0,1] (Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, 2012).

Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu (Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5), 2023) develop a law of large numbers for such systems. This mission formalizes their second main result, Theorem 3.1. Under cut-metric convergence of the interaction kernels, the empirical measure of the nnn-particle system converges in probability to the averaged law of a continuum graphon particle system. Related work includes Bhamidi, Budhiraja and Wu (Stochastic Process. Appl., 2019) on weakly interacting particles on inhomogeneous random graphs, Coppini, Dietert and Giacomin (Stoch. Dyn., 2020) on Erdős–Rényi graphs, and Bet, Coppini and Nardi (arXiv:2006.07670) on oscillators on dense random graphs.

Setting

Write I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure and fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0. Let Cd=C([0,T]:Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T]:\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T]:Rd) with the uniform norm ∥x∥∗,T=sup⁡s≤T∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,T}=\sup_{s\le T}|x_s|∥x∥∗,T​=sups≤T​∣xs​∣. On one probability space take independent initial states Xu(0)X_u(0)Xu​(0) with laws μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0) and independent ddd-dimensional Brownian motions BuB_uBu​, for all u∈Iu\in Iu∈I. The graphon particle system (2.1) for a graphon GGG and Lipschitz coefficients b,σb,\sigmab,σ is the continuum of nonlinear diffusions

Xu(t)=Xu(0)+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdb(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv ds+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdσ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv dBu(s),X_u(t)=X_u(0)+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,ds+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,dB_u(s),Xu​(t)=Xu​(0)+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvds+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvdBu​(s),

where μv,s\mu_{v,s}μv,s​ is the law of Xv(s)X_v(s)Xv​(s). Write μu∈P(Cd)\mu_u\in\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)μu​∈P(Cd​) for the path law of XuX_uXu​ and μˉ=∫Iμu du\bar\mu=\int_I\mu_u\,duμˉ​=∫I​μu​du for the averaged law.

The nnn-particle system (3.1) places particle iii at label i/ni/ni/n, starts it at Xi/n(0)X_{i/n}(0)Xi/n​(0), drives it by Bi/nB_{i/n}Bi/n​, and weights its interaction with particle jjj by ξijn\xi^n_{ij}ξijn​:

Xin(t)=Xi/n(0)+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn b(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) ds+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn σ(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) dBi/n(s).X^n_i(t)=X_{i/n}(0)+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,b(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,ds+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,\sigma(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,dB_{i/n}(s).Xin​(t)=Xi/n​(0)+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​b(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))ds+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​σ(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))dBi/n​(s).

The weights come from a step graphon GnG_nGn​, constant on the squares of the nnn-grid. Either ξijn=Gn(i/n,j/n)\xi^n_{ij}=G_n(i/n,j/n)ξijn​=Gn​(i/n,j/n), or ξijn=ξjin\xi^n_{ij}=\xi^n_{ji}ξijn​=ξjin​ are independent Bernoulli(Gn(i/n,j/n))(G_n(i/n,j/n))(Gn​(i/n,j/n)) variables for i≤ji\le ji≤j, independent of the noise (Condition 3.1). The kernels converge in the cut norm ∥W∥□=sup⁡S,T∣∫S×TW∣\|W\|_\square=\sup_{S,T}\big|\int_{S\times T}W\big|∥W∥□​=supS,T​​∫S×T​W​. Two further norms appear: the operator norm ∥W∥=sup⁡∥g∥∞≤1∫I∣∫IW(u,v)g(v) dv∣ du\|W\|=\sup_{\|g\|_\infty\le1}\int_I|\int_I W(u,v)g(v)\,dv|\,du∥W∥=sup∥g∥∞​≤1​∫I​∣∫I​W(u,v)g(v)dv∣du, and the Wasserstein-2 distance W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ on P(Cd)\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)P(Cd​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1

Assume the initial laws are measurable in uuu with a uniform (2+ε)(2+\varepsilon)(2+ε)-moment and b,σb,\sigmab,σ are Lipschitz (Condition 2.1). Assume u↦μu(0)u\mapsto\mu_u(0)u↦μu​(0) is W2W_2W2​-continuous on each interval of a finite cover of III (Condition 2.2(a)), and that Condition 3.1 holds with Gn→GG_n\to GGn​→G in the cut metric. Then

μn:=1n∑i=1nδXin⟶μˉin P(Cd) in probability.\mu^n:=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\delta_{X^n_i}\longrightarrow\bar\mu\quad\text{in }\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)\text{ in probability}.μn:=n1​i=1∑n​δXin​​⟶μˉ​in P(Cd​) in probability.

If, in addition, GGG is continuous at (u,v)(u,v)(u,v) for a.e. vvv at each interior point uuu of the cover (Condition 2.2(b)), then

1n∑i=1nE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2⟶0.\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\longrightarrow0 .n1​i=1∑n​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​⟶0.

Milestones

In order: Remark 2.1, where cut-norm convergence implies operator-norm convergence; Theorem 2.1(a), continuity of u↦μuu\mapsto\mu_uu↦μu​ in W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​; the weak-LLN bound (6.4); the discretization bound (6.11); Lemma 6.1,

lim sup⁡n1n∑iE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2≤κ(M)lim sup⁡n∥Gn−G∥+κM−ε;\limsup_{n}\frac1n\sum_i\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\le\kappa(M)\limsup_n\|G_n-G\|+\kappa M^{-\varepsilon};nlimsup​n1​i∑​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​≤κ(M)nlimsup​∥Gn​−G∥+κM−ε;

Lemma 6.2, a law of large numbers for the continuum particles X1/n,…,Xn/nX_{1/n},\dots,X_{n/n}X1/n​,…,Xn/n​; the approximation of GGG by continuous graphons; the continuity (6.12) of μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ in the graphon, in a corrected qualitative form; the empirical coupling bound for W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​; and (6.14).

Significance

Theorem 3.1 shows that the averaged graphon law μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ is the correct macroscopic description of a dense heterogeneous particle system. This holds for deterministic weights and for Erdős–Rényi-type random weights, and the graphon may be discontinuous. It is the foundation for graphon mean field games and for control of large networked systems, where μˉ\bar\muμˉ​ replaces the intractable nnn-particle law. Under the regularity Condition 2.2(b) the convergence holds in L2L^2L2, particle by particle, along the natural coupling.

The result is proved in the paper (§6.1–§6.2). Nothing in it is formalized. A formal proof would produce reusable infrastructure: graphons, the cut and operator norms, Lusin approximation of graphons, Wasserstein distances between empirical measures, and laws of large numbers for random probability measures on path space. It also needs pathwise stability estimates for SDE systems built on Itô integrals, which goes well beyond what Mathlib has today.

Difficulty

The particles are neither exchangeable nor identically distributed. The classical propagation-of-chaos argument compares each particle with an i.i.d. copy of one McKean–Vlasov process, and it does not apply here. Each XinX^n_iXin​ must be compared with its own limit Xi/nX_{i/n}Xi/n​, and the error has two sources: the random or discretized weights ξijn\xi^n_{ij}ξijn​, and the replacement of GGG by GnG_nGn​. Cut-metric convergence controls Gn−GG_n-GGn​−G only through integrals against bounded test functions. The interaction term, however, integrates the unbounded function b(Xi/n(s),⋅)b(X_{i/n}(s),\cdot)b(Xi/n​(s),⋅) against varying laws μj/n,s\mu_{j/n,s}μj/n,s​. When GGG is merely measurable, the map u↦μuu\mapsto\mu_uu↦μu​ need not be continuous, and the error of replacing ∫I⋅ dv\int_I\cdot\,dv∫I​⋅dv by the average over the labels j/nj/nj/n need not vanish. The direct estimate therefore fails for (3.3) without Condition 2.2(b), and this is the case the goal must cover.

Formalization scope

The setting file GraphonMF.DenseLLN.Setting fixes these conventions:

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with the sup norm. All statements are invariant under this choice: constants are existential and the other conclusions are limits.
  • Processes are path-valued maps Ω→Cd\Omega\to\mathcal C_dΩ→Cd​, and Cd\mathcal C_dCd​ carries its Borel σ-algebra.
  • Each SDE is encoded through the published Itô-process predicate Peng1990.SMP.IsItoProcess. The filtrations are the uncompleted natural filtrations σ(Xu(0),Bu(r):r≤t)\sigma(X_u(0),B_u(r):r\le t)σ(Xu​(0),Bu​(r):r≤t) and σ(ξn,Xj/n(0),Bj/n(r):j≤n,r≤t)\sigma(\xi^n,X_{j/n}(0),B_{j/n}(r):j\le n,r\le t)σ(ξn,Xj/n​(0),Bj/n​(r):j≤n,r≤t).
  • A solution of (2.1) carries the membership of its law family in the class M\mathcal MM (measurable in uuu, uniformly bounded second moments), which makes every Bochner integral of the drift meaningful.
  • W2W_2W2​ and W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ are the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • Expectations of nonnegative quantities are lower Lebesgue integrals.
  • Convergence in probability is topological: P(μn∉U)→0\mathbb P(\mu^n\notin U)\to0P(μn∈/U)→0 for every weak-topology neighbourhood UUU of μˉ\bar\muμˉ​.
  • The nnn-particle system shares the noise of the graphon system: particle iii (Lean index iii, label (i+1)/n(i+1)/n(i+1)/n) uses X(i+1)/n(0)X_{(i+1)/n}(0)X(i+1)/n​(0) and B(i+1)/nB_{(i+1)/n}B(i+1)/n​.
  • Each ξn\xi^nξn is assumed measurable.

Two encodings would trivialize the targets, and both are ruled out. A pointwise or almost-sure reading of (3.3), or convergence of ∫f dμn\int f\,d\mu^n∫fdμn for a single test function, is not the claim. Choosing the constants of Lemma 6.1 and (6.11) after the sequence (Gn)(G_n)(Gn​) would make them nearly empty, so they are chosen before it. A sorry-free check confirms that the solution predicates are satisfiable: with b=σ=0b=\sigma=0b=σ=0 the constant paths solve both systems.

Solvers will need several pieces of library work: the inequality ∥W∥∞→1≤4∥W∥□\|W\|_{\infty\to1}\le4\|W\|_\square∥W∥∞→1​≤4∥W∥□​, BDG-type moment bounds for the Itô integrals of Peng's library, Gronwall estimates, Lusin's theorem on [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2, and the metrization of weak convergence on P(Cd)\mathcal P(\mathcal C_d)P(Cd​) (Lévy–Prokhorov). Contributions to any of these are welcome independently of the goal. The paper's proofs are in its §5 (Theorem 2.1) and §6.1–§6.2 (Lemmas 6.1, 6.2 and Theorem 3.1).

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty, R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5):3587–3619, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1901
  • L. Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS Colloquium Publications 60, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1090/coll/060
  • S. Bhamidi, A. Budhiraja, R. Wu, Weakly interacting particle systems on inhomogeneous random graphs, Stochastic Process. Appl. 129:2174–2206, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spa.2018.06.014
  • F. Coppini, H. Dietert, G. Giacomin, A law of large numbers and large deviations for interacting diffusions on Erdős–Rényi graphs, Stoch. Dyn. 20:2050010, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219493720500100
  • G. Bet, F. Coppini, F. R. Nardi, Weakly interacting oscillators on dense random graphs, arXiv preprint, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.07670
  • A.-S. Sznitman, Topics in propagation of chaos, École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XIX, LNM 1464, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0085169
15 thms1 active userReviewed
Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems III: With Edge Weights Sampled From a Lipschitz Graphon, Each Particle Is Within κ/n of Its Graphon Limit in Mean SquareResearch Paper

Interacting diffusions on large heterogeneous networks

Classical mean-field theory describes nnn diffusions that interact symmetrically, each feeling the empirical average of all the others, and shows that as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞ every particle behaves like an independent copy of a single McKean–Vlasov process. Many systems of interest are not symmetric: neurons, agents in a financial network, or oscillators interact through a graph, and particles in different parts of the graph feel different neighbourhoods. A graphon G:[0,1]2→[0,1]G:[0,1]^2\to[0,1]G:[0,1]2→[0,1] is the limit object of dense graph sequences (Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS 2012), and it is the natural way to describe the interaction structure of such systems in the limit.

Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu (Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5), 2023) study a continuum of diffusions indexed by labels u∈[0,1]u\in[0,1]u∈[0,1] whose interaction is weighted by a graphon, and prove laws of large numbers and rates of convergence for nnn-particle systems on graphs sampled from the graphon. This mission targets their uniform rate of convergence for weights sampled from a Lipschitz graphon (Theorem 3.2).

Setting

Write I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1] with Lebesgue measure. Fix a horizon T∈(0,∞)T\in(0,\infty)T∈(0,∞) and let Cd=C([0,T]:Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T]:\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T]:Rd) with ∥x∥∗,t=sup⁡0≤s≤t∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,t}=\sup_{0\le s\le t}|x_s|∥x∥∗,t​=sup0≤s≤t​∣xs​∣.

On one probability space, {Bu:u∈I}\{B_u:u\in I\}{Bu​:u∈I} are i.i.d. ddd-dimensional Brownian motions and {Xu(0):u∈I}\{X_u(0):u\in I\}{Xu​(0):u∈I} are independent initial states with laws μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0), independent of the Brownian motions. Given a graphon GGG and coefficients b,σb,\sigmab,σ, the graphon particle system (2.1) is

Xu(t)=Xu(0)+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdb(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv ds+∫0t ⁣ ⁣∫I ⁣∫Rdσ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v) μv,s(dx) dv dBu(s),X_u(t)=X_u(0)+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,ds+\int_0^t\!\!\int_I\!\int_{\mathbb R^d}\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)\,\mu_{v,s}(dx)\,dv\,dB_u(s),Xu​(t)=Xu​(0)+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvds+∫0t​∫I​∫Rd​σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v)μv,s​(dx)dvdBu​(s),

with μu,t=L(Xu(t))\mu_{u,t}=\mathcal L(X_u(t))μu,t​=L(Xu​(t)). The particles are independent but not identically distributed, and their laws are coupled through the dvdvdv-integral.

The nnn-particle system (3.1) uses the same randomness at the labels i/ni/ni/n:

Xin(t)=Xi/n(0)+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn b(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) ds+∫0t1n∑j=1nξijn σ(Xin(s),Xjn(s)) dBi/n(s),X^n_i(t)=X_{i/n}(0)+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,b(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,ds+\int_0^t\frac1n\sum_{j=1}^n\xi^n_{ij}\,\sigma(X^n_i(s),X^n_j(s))\,dB_{i/n}(s),Xin​(t)=Xi/n​(0)+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​b(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))ds+∫0t​n1​j=1∑n​ξijn​σ(Xin​(s),Xjn​(s))dBi/n​(s),

so particle iii and the continuum particle at u=i/nu=i/nu=i/n share their initial state and Brownian motion.

The hypotheses are:

  • Condition 2.1: u↦μu(0)u\mapsto\mu_u(0)u↦μu​(0) is measurable, sup⁡uE∣Xu(0)∣2+ε<∞\sup_u\mathbb E|X_u(0)|^{2+\varepsilon}<\inftysupu​E∣Xu​(0)∣2+ε<∞ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, and bbb, σ\sigmaσ are Lipschitz in both arguments.
  • Condition 2.3: there are finitely many intervals I1,…,INI_1,\dots,I_NI1​,…,IN​ covering III and a κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 with W2(μu1(0),μu2(0))≤κ∣u1−u2∣W_2(\mu_{u_1}(0),\mu_{u_2}(0))\le\kappa|u_1-u_2|W2​(μu1​​(0),μu2​​(0))≤κ∣u1​−u2​∣ on each IiI_iIi​ and ∣G(u1,v1)−G(u2,v2)∣≤κ(∣u1−u2∣+∣v1−v2∣)|G(u_1,v_1)-G(u_2,v_2)|\le\kappa(|u_1-u_2|+|v_1-v_2|)∣G(u1​,v1​)−G(u2​,v2​)∣≤κ(∣u1​−u2​∣+∣v1​−v2​∣) on each block Ii×IjI_i\times I_jIi​×Ij​. The graphon may jump across block boundaries.
  • Condition 3.2: the weights are sampled from GGG itself, either deterministically, ξijn=G(i/n,j/n)\xi^n_{ij}=G(i/n,j/n)ξijn​=G(i/n,j/n), or as a random graph, ξijn=ξjin∼Bernoulli(G(i/n,j/n))\xi^n_{ij}=\xi^n_{ji}\sim\mathrm{Bernoulli}(G(i/n,j/n))ξijn​=ξjin​∼Bernoulli(G(i/n,j/n)) independently for i≤ji\le ji≤j and independently of the noise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (p. 3596)

Under Conditions 2.1, 2.3 and 3.2 there is κ∈(0,∞)\kappa\in(0,\infty)κ∈(0,∞) such that

max⁡i=1,…,nE∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,T2≤κn∀n∈N.\max_{i=1,\dots,n}\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,T}\le\frac{\kappa}{n}\qquad\forall n\in\mathbb N.i=1,…,nmax​E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,T2​≤nκ​∀n∈N.

Milestones (§6.3, in attack order)

  • (6.15): E∥Xin−Xi/n∥∗,t2\mathbb E\|X^n_i-X_{i/n}\|^2_{*,t}E∥Xin​−Xi/n​∥∗,t2​ is bounded by κ\kappaκ times the time-integrated mean-square mismatch between the finite-nnn drift and diffusion and their graphon counterparts.
  • The drift mismatch is split by (6.16) into three terms T~sn,1,T~sn,2,T~sn,3\tilde T^{n,1}_s,\tilde T^{n,2}_s,\tilde T^{n,3}_sT~sn,1​,T~sn,2​,T~sn,3​, bounded by
T~sn,1≤2κmax⁡iE∣Xin(s)−Xi/n(s)∣2  (6.17),T~sn,2≤κn  (6.18),T~sn,3≤κn2  (6.19).\tilde T^{n,1}_s\le2\kappa\max_i\mathbb E|X^n_i(s)-X_{i/n}(s)|^2\ \ (6.17),\qquad\tilde T^{n,2}_s\le\frac{\kappa}{n}\ \ (6.18),\qquad\tilde T^{n,3}_s\le\frac{\kappa}{n^2}\ \ (6.19).T~sn,1​≤2κimax​E∣Xin​(s)−Xi/n​(s)∣2  (6.17),T~sn,2​≤nκ​  (6.18),T~sn,3​≤n2κ​  (6.19).
  • Theorem 2.1(b) (p. 3593): under Condition 2.3, W2,T(μu,μv)≤κ∣u−v∣W_{2,T}(\mu_u,\mu_v)\le\kappa|u-v|W2,T​(μu​,μv​)≤κ∣u−v∣ whenever u,vu,vu,v lie in the same interval IiI_iIi​. It is used in (6.19).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.2 gives a quantitative propagation of chaos for heterogeneous interactions: with weights sampled from a blockwise Lipschitz graphon, every particle of the finite system, not just an average particle, is within O(n−1/2)O(n^{-1/2})O(n−1/2) in root-mean-square path distance of the continuum particle with the same label. The rate matches the classical mean-field rate (e.g. Sznitman 1991), so heterogeneity of the interaction costs nothing in the exponent. The same estimate covers the deterministic weighted graph and the random graph sampled from GGG (in the annealed sense), and it is the dense counterpart of Theorem 4.2 for percolated graphs.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper (§6.3); it has no machine-checked proof. A formal development would produce a reusable account of graphon particle systems and their finite-nnn approximations: graphon-weighted McKean–Vlasov drifts, couplings through shared noise, and the decomposition of the interaction error into a Lipschitz feedback term, a law-of-large-numbers term and a Riemann-sum discretization term.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to compare XinX^n_iXin​ with Xi/nX_{i/n}Xi/n​ directly and close a Gronwall inequality. The difficulty is that the comparison involves the empirical, graph-weighted average of the other particles, which is neither the graphon average nor an average of independent terms. Three different errors must be controlled simultaneously and uniformly in iii: the feedback of all particles' errors into particle iii, the fluctuation of a sum of independent but non-identically distributed terms whose weights may themselves be random, and the error of replacing an integral over labels by a sum over the grid {j/n}\{j/n\}{j/n}. The last needs regularity of the law μu\mu_uμu​ in the label uuu, which is itself a theorem about the graphon system (Theorem 2.1(b)) and fails at block boundaries of GGG, where only the small number of boundary cells saves the 1/n21/n^21/n2 rate. Averaging over iii, as in the law of large numbers of Theorem 3.1, is not enough: the goal bounds the maximum.

Formalization scope

  • Rd\mathbb R^dRd is Fin d → ℝ with the sup norm; matrices are measured entrywise. All statements are norm-invariant because every constant is existential. Particle i∈{1,…,n}i\in\{1,\dots,n\}i∈{1,…,n} is Lean's i : Fin n with label (i+1)/n(i+1)/n(i+1)/n; time is ℝ≥0; III is Mathlib's unitInterval.
  • Brownian motions, Itô integrals and Itô processes are the published Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic definitions; an SDE with random initial value X(0)X(0)X(0) is stated as an Itô process for X−X(0)X-X(0)X−X(0). Each continuum particle uses the natural filtration of (Xu(0),Bu)(X_u(0),B_u)(Xu​(0),Bu​); the nnn-particle system uses the natural filtration of the weights, initial states and Brownian motions at the labels.
  • W2W_2W2​ and W2,TW_{2,T}W2,T​ are the published WassersteinDRO.Duality.wassersteinDistance 2, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; expectations of nonnegative quantities are lower Lebesgue integrals.
  • A solution of (2.1) is required to have continuous paths, measurable path maps, and a law family in the class M\mathcal MM (measurable in uuu, uniformly bounded second moments), as Proposition 2.1 asserts; this makes every inner integral meaningful.
  • The constant κ\kappaκ is chosen after the data and before nnn and iii. A κ\kappaκ chosen after nnn, a bound on the average over iii, or a solution predicate that no process satisfies would trivialize the goal; the first two are excluded by the statement, and a sanity check exhibits the zero-coefficient system as a solution of both systems.
  • Condition 2.2 is not assumed, and the weights come from GGG, not from a step graphon GnG_nGn​; no cut-metric hypothesis appears.
  • Needed infrastructure: Doob/Burkholder–Davis–Gundy for Itô integrals, Gronwall's inequality in integrated form, moment bounds for the graphon system, Kantorovich–Rubinstein-type duality for Lipschitz test functions, and independence of functionals of independent noises. Proofs of the milestones, of Theorem 2.1(b), and of the goal are all welcome; the paper's proofs are in its §5–§6.

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty, R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(5):3587–3619, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1901
  • L. Lovász, Large Networks and Graph Limits, AMS Colloquium Publications 60, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1090/coll/060
  • A.-S. Sznitman, Topics in propagation of chaos, École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour XIX, LNM 1464, Springer, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0085169
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4):966–979, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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Linear OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications: With Fixed Pick-up Times, the Offline Taxi Routing MIO Formulation (5)-(14) Is IntegralResearch Paper

Motivation

Taxi fleets, ride-hailing services and dial-a-ride systems assign incoming customer requests to vehicles under time constraints. Bertsimas, Jaillet and Martin (Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications, Operations Research 67(1), 2019) model the online taxi routing problem, a special case of the online dial-a-ride problem with time windows in which a vehicle serves one customer at a time. They show that mixed-integer optimization over a sparsified graph can dispatch thousands of New York City taxis in real time. The offline problem, in which all requests are known in advance, is the building block of their online algorithms, and its structure determines which offline methods are fast.

The structural fact this mission formalizes is the paper's Theorem 1. When every customer has a fixed pick-up time, the mixed-integer formulation of the offline problem is integral: its linear relaxation has only binary extreme points. So the problem is a linear program in disguise, which the paper uses for its maxflow heuristic.

The source is the authors' accepted manuscript (March 2018, 46 pages); every page and display number below refers to that manuscript, not to the typeset article.

Setting

Let C\mathcal CC be a finite set of customers and K\mathcal KK a finite set of taxis. Customer ccc has a pick-up time window [tcmin⁡,tcmax⁡][t^{\min}_c, t^{\max}_c][tcmin​,tcmax​], and taxi kkk becomes available at time tkinitt^{\mathrm{init}}_ktkinit​. For customers c′,cc', cc′,c, the number Tc′,cT_{c',c}Tc′,c​ is the travel time from serving c′c'c′ to picking up ccc, and Rc′,cR_{c',c}Rc′,c​ is the profit earned when ccc is served right after c′c'c′. The numbers Tk,cT_{k,c}Tk,c​ and Rk,cR_{k,c}Rk,c​ are the travel time and profit when ccc is the first customer of taxi kkk.

The graph G\mathcal GG has the customers and taxis as nodes. Between customers there is an arc c→c′c \to c'c→c′ exactly when

tcmin⁡+Tc,c′≤tc′max⁡.(1)t^{\min}_c + T_{c,c'} \le t^{\max}_{c'}. \qquad (1)tcmin​+Tc,c′​≤tc′max​.(1)

Taxi nodes have outgoing arcs only. Throughout the paper G\mathcal GG is assumed acyclic (§2.1, p. 7).

The mixed-integer formulation (5)–(14) (pp. 11–12) has binary variables xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ (customer ccc is picked up right after c′c'c′), yk,cy_{k,c}yk,c​ (ccc is the first customer of taxi kkk) and pcp_cpc​ (ccc is served), and continuous pick-up times tct_ctc​. It maximizes ∑k,cRk,cyk,c+∑c′,cRc′,cxc′,c\sum_{k,c} R_{k,c} y_{k,c} + \sum_{c',c} R_{c',c} x_{c',c}∑k,c​Rk,c​yk,c​+∑c′,c​Rc′,c​xc′,c​ subject to the flow constraints

pc=∑kyk,c+∑c′xc′,c,∑cxc′,c≤pc′,∑cyk,c≤1,(6)–(8)p_c = \sum_k y_{k,c} + \sum_{c'} x_{c',c}, \qquad \sum_c x_{c',c} \le p_{c'}, \qquad \sum_c y_{k,c} \le 1, \qquad (6)\text{–}(8)pc​=k∑​yk,c​+c′∑​xc′,c​,c∑​xc′,c​≤pc′​,c∑​yk,c​≤1,(6)–(8)

the binary constraints (9)–(11), and the time constraints

tcmin⁡≤tc≤tcmax⁡,(12)tc−tc′≥(tcmin⁡−tc′max⁡)+(Tc′,c−(tcmin⁡−tc′max⁡))xc′,c,(13)tc≥tcmin⁡+(tkinit+Tk,c−tcmin⁡) yk,c.(14)\begin{aligned} t^{\min}_c &\le t_c \le t^{\max}_c, &(12)\\ t_c - t_{c'} &\ge (t^{\min}_c - t^{\max}_{c'}) + \big(T_{c',c} - (t^{\min}_c - t^{\max}_{c'})\big) x_{c',c}, &(13)\\ t_c &\ge t^{\min}_c + (t^{\mathrm{init}}_k + T_{k,c} - t^{\min}_c)\, y_{k,c}. &(14) \end{aligned}tcmin​tc​−tc′​tc​​≤tc​≤tcmax​,≥(tcmin​−tc′max​)+(Tc′,c​−(tcmin​−tc′max​))xc′,c​,≥tcmin​+(tkinit​+Tk,c​−tcmin​)yk,c​.​(12)(13)(14)​

Constraints (13) and (14) are strengthened Big-M constraints: with xc′,c=1x_{c',c} = 1xc′,c​=1, (13) reads tc−tc′≥Tc′,ct_c - t_{c'} \ge T_{c',c}tc​−tc′​≥Tc′,c​.

The LP relaxation replaces (9)–(11) by 0≤x,y,p≤10 \le x, y, p \le 10≤x,y,p≤1. A formulation is integral when every extreme point of its LP relaxation has x,y,p∈{0,1}x, y, p \in \{0,1\}x,y,p∈{0,1}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 13)

If tcmin⁡=tcmax⁡=tc∗t^{\min}_c = t^{\max}_c = t^*_ctcmin​=tcmax​=tc∗​ for every customer ccc (and G\mathcal GG is acyclic, the standing assumption), then

every extreme point (x,y,p,t) of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies xc′,c, yk,c, pc∈{0,1}.\text{every extreme point } (x,y,p,t) \text{ of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies } x_{c',c},\, y_{k,c},\, p_c \in \{0,1\}.every extreme point (x,y,p,t) of the LP relaxation of (5)–(14) satisfies xc′,c​,yk,c​,pc​∈{0,1}.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1 and the remark before it)

  1. Display (15), p. 13: with fixed windows, (12) gives t=t∗t = t^*t=t∗, and (13) becomes (Tc′,c−(tc∗−tc′∗))xc′,c≤0\big(T_{c',c} - (t^*_c - t^*_{c'})\big) x_{c',c} \le 0(Tc′,c​−(tc∗​−tc′∗​))xc′,c​≤0.
  2. p. 13: with fixed times the relaxation is exactly {t=t∗}\{t = t^*\}{t=t∗} times the relaxed flow system (6)–(11). In that system xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ is removed when Tc′,c>tc∗−tc′∗T_{c',c} > t^*_c - t^*_{c'}Tc′,c​>tc∗​−tc′∗​, and yk,cy_{k,c}yk,c​ is removed when tkinit+Tk,c>tc∗t^{\mathrm{init}}_k + T_{k,c} > t^*_ctkinit​+Tk,c​>tc∗​.
  3. pp. 12–13: the relaxed flow system (6)–(11), on any subset of arcs, has 0/10/10/1 extreme points.

Three further statements from the same pages are included as plain theorems. The first is the paragraph after Theorem 1: a solution with fixed times tc∗∈[tcmin⁡,tcmax⁡]t^*_c \in [t^{\min}_c, t^{\max}_c]tc∗​∈[tcmin​,tcmax​] is feasible for the formulation with windows. The other two are the conditions (3) and (4) of §2.1, which exclude 2-cycles and all cycles of G\mathcal GG.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns a mixed-integer program into a linear program when the time windows shrink to points. The fixed-time problem can then be solved by the simplex method or by a max-flow algorithm. By the paragraph after the theorem, any choice of times inside the windows then gives a feasible solution of the original problem. This is the maxflow heuristic, and the paper reports it to be near-optimal when windows are small. The theorem also locates the source of the integrality gap: the time constraints (12)–(14), not the flow structure.

The result is proved on the page, briefly. No machine-checked version exists. Formalizing it means making the page's "equivalent to a formulation in which variable xc′,cx_{c',c}xc′,c​ is removed" precise. The extreme points of the relaxation in (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)-space must correspond to those of a flow polytope in (x,y,p)(x,y,p)(x,y,p)-space. The integrality of that flow polytope must then be proved, which the page settles by appeal to max-flow.

Difficulty

The reduction to the flow system is elementary linear arithmetic. The substance is milestone 3. The system (6)–(8) is not literally in the standard form of a network-flow problem: it mixes an equation defining pcp_cpc​ with inequalities, has unit upper bounds, and allows arbitrary arc sets, including cycles and loops (c,c)(c,c)(c,c). Neither the integrality theorem for standard-form network flows nor total unimodularity can be applied without first exhibiting a network and checking that the polytope corresponds to its flow polytope. Mathlib has the definition of total unimodularity but not the Hoffman–Kruskal theorem.

The page's phrase "the formulations are equivalent" also hides a step: the goal speaks of extreme points in (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)-space, while the flow system lives in (x,y,p)(x,y,p)(x,y,p)-space, and the two notions of extreme point have to be related explicitly.

Formalization scope

  • Customers and taxis are arbitrary finite types; empty sets of customers or taxis are allowed, and the statements remain the paper's there.
  • A point (x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t)(x,y,p,t) is an element of the real vector space (C×C→R)×(K×C→R)×(C→R)×(C→R)(\mathcal C \times \mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal K \times \mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal C \to \mathbb R) \times (\mathcal C \to \mathbb R)(C×C→R)×(K×C→R)×(C→R)×(C→R). Extreme points are Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ.
  • All constraints are indexed by all pairs, the diagonal c′=cc' = cc′=c included, exactly as printed. The variables are not restricted to the arcs of G\mathcal GG.
  • No sign conditions are imposed on the data TTT, RRR, tinitt^{\mathrm{init}}tinit.
  • Fixed times are the hypothesis tcmin⁡=tcmax⁡t^{\min}_c = t^{\max}_ctcmin​=tcmax​ for all ccc. The acyclicity of G\mathcal GG is kept on the goal as the paper's standing assumption, although the conclusion does not need it; milestones and companions omit it, which makes them stronger.
  • Milestone 3 is stated for an arbitrary arc subset, which covers both the system (6)–(11) as printed and the system with variables removed that the proof uses.

Two trivializing readings are ruled out. "Integral" is the extreme-point property of the relaxation, not the existence of an integral optimum for a given objective, and not the integrality of the mixed-integer feasible set, which holds by definition. Integrality is never demanded of the continuous times ttt.

A complete development needs an integrality theorem for flow polytopes with integer bounds, which Mathlib does not have. Such a result is reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of general network-flow integrality lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Bertsimas, P. Jaillet, S. Martin, Online Vehicle Routing: The Edge of Optimization in Large-Scale Applications, Operations Research 67(1):143–162, 2019; authors' accepted manuscript, March 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2018.1763
  • A. J. Hoffman, J. B. Kruskal, Integral boundary points of convex polyhedra, in Linear Inequalities and Related Systems, Annals of Mathematics Studies 38, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881987-013
  • J.-F. Cordeau, G. Laporte, The dial-a-ride problem: models and algorithms, Annals of Operations Research 153:29–46, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-007-0170-8
5 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes 5: Under Positive Harris Recurrence a Risk-Neutral Optimal Stationary Policy Is Optimal for Power-Utility Average CostResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical Markov decision theory minimizes expected cost. A decision maker who dislikes variability, such as an insurer, a portfolio manager or an operator of a service system, may instead evaluate a random cost YYY by its certainty equivalent U−1(E[U(Y)])U^{-1}(\mathbb E[U(Y)])U−1(E[U(Y)]) for an increasing utility (disutility) function UUU. Bäuerle and Rieder (More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, Math. Oper. Res. 39(1), 2014; authors' manuscript at KIT 1000039663) develop dynamic programming for this criterion with general UUU. Classical risk-sensitive MDPs, studied since Howard and Matheson (1972), use the exponential utility, and for it the average cost problem differs considerably from the risk-neutral one (Cavazos-Cadena and Fernández-Gaucherand 2000; Di Masi and Stettner 1999). Their §5 asks what happens in the long run. The average cost per stage is evaluated through a power utility U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ. Does risk sensitivity change which stationary policy is optimal?

This mission formalizes their answer, Theorem 5.2, and the results its proof uses (manuscript p. 17).

Setting

A controlled Markov process in discrete time has a standard Borel state space EEE and action space AAA. A measurable set D⊆E×AD\subseteq E\times AD⊆E×A lists the admissible state–action pairs, and every D(x)={a:(x,a)∈D}D(x)=\{a:(x,a)\in D\}D(x)={a:(x,a)∈D} is nonempty. A transition law Q(⋅∣x,a)Q(\cdot\mid x,a)Q(⋅∣x,a) gives the distribution of the next state, and a measurable cost ccc satisfies 0<c‾≤c≤cˉ0<\underline c\le c\le\bar c0<c​≤c≤cˉ on DDD.

A history-dependent policy σ=(gn)n≥0\sigma=(g_n)_{n\ge0}σ=(gn​)n≥0​ chooses the action An=gn(X0,A0,…,Xn)∈D(Xn)A_n=g_n(X_0,A_0,\dots,X_n)\in D(X_n)An​=gn​(X0​,A0​,…,Xn​)∈D(Xn​) measurably from the past. The set of all such policies is Π\PiΠ. Each σ\sigmaσ and initial state xxx determine a probability measure Pxσ\mathbb P^\sigma_xPxσ​ on trajectories, with X0=xX_0=xX0​=x and Xn+1∼Q(⋅∣Xn,An)X_{n+1}\sim Q(\cdot\mid X_n,A_n)Xn+1​∼Q(⋅∣Xn​,An​). The accumulated cost is Cn=∑k=0n−1c(Xk,Ak)C^n=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}c(X_k,A_k)Cn=∑k=0n−1​c(Xk​,Ak​).

A stationary policy π=(f,f,… )\pi=(f,f,\dots)π=(f,f,…) uses a measurable decision rule fff with f(x)∈D(x)f(x)\in D(x)f(x)∈D(x) at every stage. Under it, (Xn)(X_n)(Xn​) is the Markov chain with kernel Pf(x,⋅)=Q(⋅∣x,f(x))P_f(x,\cdot)=Q(\cdot\mid x,f(x))Pf​(x,⋅)=Q(⋅∣x,f(x)).

Fix γ>0\gamma>0γ>0 and U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ. The risk-sensitive average cost (5.1) and its optimal value are

Jσ(x)=lim sup⁡n→∞1n U−1(Exσ[U(Cn)]),J(x)=inf⁡σ∈ΠJσ(x).J_\sigma(x)=\limsup_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\,U^{-1}\Big(\mathbb E^\sigma_x\big[U(C^n)\big]\Big),\qquad J(x)=\inf_{\sigma\in\Pi}J_\sigma(x).Jσ​(x)=n→∞limsup​n1​U−1(Exσ​[U(Cn)]),J(x)=σ∈Πinf​Jσ​(x).

The risk-neutral average cost is ρσ(x)=lim sup⁡n1nExσ[Cn]\rho_\sigma(x)=\limsup_n\frac1n\mathbb E^\sigma_x[C^n]ρσ​(x)=limsupn​n1​Exσ​[Cn], the case γ=1\gamma=1γ=1.

A Markov chain is Harris recurrent if, for some nonzero σ\sigmaσ-finite measure φ\varphiφ, every set BBB with φ(B)>0\varphi(B)>0φ(B)>0 is visited infinitely often almost surely from every starting point. It is positive Harris recurrent if it also has an invariant probability measure (Meyn and Tweedie 2009, §§9–10). The MDP is called positive Harris recurrent if the state chain of every stationary policy is.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

Let γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1 and let the MDP be positive Harris recurrent. If π∗=(f∗,f∗,… )\pi^*=(f^*,f^*,\dots)π∗=(f∗,f∗,…) satisfies ρπ∗(x)≤ρσ(x)\rho_{\pi^*}(x)\le\rho_\sigma(x)ρπ∗​(x)≤ρσ​(x) for all σ∈Π\sigma\in\Piσ∈Π and x∈Ex\in Ex∈E, then

Jπ∗(x)≤Jσ(x)for all σ∈Π, x∈E,soJπ∗=J.J_{\pi^*}(x)\le J_\sigma(x)\quad\text{for all }\sigma\in\Pi,\ x\in E,\qquad\text{so}\qquad J_{\pi^*}=J .Jπ∗​(x)≤Jσ​(x)for all σ∈Π, x∈E,soJπ∗​=J.

The optimal policy does not depend on γ\gammaγ.

Milestones

  1. §5.1, p. 17. For γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, homogeneity gives Jσ(x)=lim sup⁡nU−1(Exσ[U(Cn/n)])J_\sigma(x)=\limsup_n U^{-1}(\mathbb E^\sigma_x[U(C^n/n)])Jσ​(x)=limsupn​U−1(Exσ​[U(Cn/n)]).
  2. Theorem 5.1. If the state chain of a stationary policy π\piπ is positive Harris recurrent, there is a number ρ\rhoρ with
lim⁡n→∞1n(Exπ[(Cn)γ])1/γ=ρ=lim⁡n→∞1nExπ[Cn]for all γ>0, x∈E.\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\Big(\mathbb E^\pi_x\big[(C^n)^\gamma\big]\Big)^{1/\gamma}=\rho=\lim_{n\to\infty}\frac1n\mathbb E^\pi_x[C^n]\qquad\text{for all }\gamma>0,\ x\in E.n→∞lim​n1​(Exπ​[(Cn)γ])1/γ=ρ=n→∞lim​n1​Exπ​[Cn]for all γ>0, x∈E.
  1. Proof of Theorem 5.2. For γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1 and every σ∈Π\sigma\in\Piσ∈Π: ρσ(x)≤Jσ(x)\rho_\sigma(x)\le J_\sigma(x)ρσ​(x)≤Jσ​(x).

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.2 reduces a risk-sensitive long-run problem to a classical one. Under positive Harris recurrence, any stationary policy that is optimal for the expected average cost, for instance one obtained from the average-cost optimality equation, is also optimal for every convex power criterion γ≥1\gamma\ge1γ≥1, simultaneously. Theorem 5.1 explains why: along a positive Harris recurrent chain the empirical average cost Cn/nC^n/nCn/n converges almost surely to a constant, so in the limit the power utility sees no randomness at all. The contrast is with exponential utility, where the risk-sensitive average cost generally differs from the risk-neutral one and leads to a multiplicative Poisson equation. Positive homogeneity of the utility is what removes the risk effect.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known they have no machine-checked proof, and the platform has no strong law of large numbers for Harris chains on general state spaces. The mission produces a Borel MDP with history-dependent policies and Ionescu-Tulcea path measures, a reusable definition of (positive) Harris recurrence for an arbitrary Markov kernel, and a formal comparison of risk-neutral and risk-sensitive average costs. Each milestone is a self-contained target.

Difficulty

Milestones 1 and 3 are elementary once the expectations are handled correctly: Cn≥0C^n\ge0Cn≥0 holds only almost surely, and Jensen's inequality has to be applied with real powers. The central difficulty is Theorem 5.1. It needs the ergodic theorem for positive Harris recurrent chains, Cn/n→∫c(x,f(x)) μf(dx)C^n/n\to\int c(x,f(x))\,\mu_f(dx)Cn/n→∫c(x,f(x))μf​(dx) almost surely from every initial state (Meyn and Tweedie, Theorem 17.0.1). It also needs an identification of the state process under Pxπ\mathbb P^\pi_xPxπ​ with the canonical chain of PfP_fPf​. The natural first idea, to quote a convergence theorem in total variation, fails: positive Harris recurrence allows periodic chains, for which Pfn(x,⋅)P_f^n(x,\cdot)Pfn​(x,⋅) need not converge. Pathwise averages converge, marginal laws need not, and the argument has to work with the former.

Formalization scope

  • EEE and AAA are standard Borel spaces. No topology is used, and the continuity–compactness conditions (CC) of §2 play no role in §5. D(x)≠∅D(x)\neq\emptysetD(x)=∅ for every xxx is a standing hypothesis.
  • Policies are deterministic and history-dependent, gn:(E×A)n×E→Ag_n:(E\times A)^n\times E\to Agn​:(E×A)n×E→A with gn(hn)∈D(xn)g_n(h_n)\in D(x_n)gn​(hn​)∈D(xn​). Pxσ\mathbb P^\sigma_xPxσ​ is Mathlib's Kernel.trajMeasure on (E×A)N0(E\times A)^{\mathbb N_0}(E×A)N0​. Stationary policies act through gn(hn)=f(xn)g_n(h_n)=f(x_n)gn​(hn​)=f(xn​).
  • (5.1) is defined only for U(y)=yγU(y)=y^\gammaU(y)=yγ, with Real.rpow. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 all terms of the sequences lie in [c‾,cˉ][\underline c,\bar c][c​,cˉ], so real limits superior are meaningful. The term n=0n=0n=0 (Lean's 1/0=01/0=01/0=0) is irrelevant.
  • The risk-neutral average cost, which the paper leaves undefined, is the lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup of 1nExσ[Cn]\frac1n\mathbb E^\sigma_x[C^n]n1​Exσ​[Cn]. Risk-neutral optimality of π∗\pi^*π∗ and the conclusion of Theorem 5.2 both range over all history-dependent policies. Restricting either to stationary policies would change the theorem.
  • Harris recurrence is defined from scratch on the canonical chain of a Markov kernel and kept equivalent to Meyn–Tweedie's notion. Weakening it to "has an invariant probability", or strengthening it to total-variation ergodicity (which excludes periodic chains), would make a different theorem. Neither is acceptable.
  • Positive Harris recurrence is assumed for every stationary policy, exactly as in the paper. Theorem 5.4 (vanishing discount) and Corollary 5.3 (finite unichain models) are outside the mission.

Contributions are welcome at every level. Reusable pieces, such as the identification of the state process with the chain of PfP_fPf​, the strong law for positive Harris chains, or bounded-convergence lemmas for path measures, are valuable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1):105–120, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0601 (authors' manuscript: https://publikationen.bibliothek.kit.edu/1000039663)
  • S. P. Meyn and R. L. Tweedie, Markov Chains and Stochastic Stability, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511626630
  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, Markov Decision Processes with Applications to Finance, Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18324-9
  • R. A. Howard and J. E. Matheson, Risk-sensitive Markov decision processes, Management Science 18(7):356–369, 1972. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.18.7.356
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Dynamic ProgrammingMarkov ChainProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes 2: The Finite-Horizon Discounted Problem Is Solved by Value Iteration on the State Extended by Accumulated Cost and DiscountResearch Paper

Motivation

Sequential decisions often have costs whose timing matters. A controller may choose an action now, observe a random next state, and choose again. Ordinary expected-cost minimization averages the sum of the costs. A risk-sensitive criterion first applies an increasing function UUU to the total cost and then takes its expectation. The curvature of UUU changes how uncertain costs affect the ranking of policies: convex utility penalizes variability in a cost-minimization problem, while concave utility has the opposite tendency. Bäuerle and Rieder study this criterion for controlled Markov processes with general continuous increasing utility, rather than fixing an exponential function. Their finite-horizon discounted result is Theorem 3.6, pp. 10–12 of the authors' manuscript.

Discounting gives early and late costs different weights. For linear UUU, the remaining expected cost can be described using only the current physical state. For general UUU, the effect of a future cost also depends on what has already been paid and on the discount weight currently attached to the next cost. The mission targets the paper's finite-horizon treatment of these two additional quantities. The infinite-horizon problem is a separate part of the paper.

Setting

The state space EEE and action space AAA are Borel spaces. At state xxx, the nonempty set D(x)D(x)D(x) contains the actions that may be chosen. If action a∈D(x)a\in D(x)a∈D(x) is selected, the next state has distribution Q(⋅∣x,a)Q(\cdot\mid x,a)Q(⋅∣x,a) and the stage cost is c(x,a)c(x,a)c(x,a). The cost is measurable and bounded between positive constants c‾\underline cc​ and c‾\overline cc. The discount factor satisfies 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1, and U:[0,∞)→RU:[0,\infty)\to\mathbb RU:[0,∞)→R is continuous and strictly increasing. The paper imposes its compactness and continuity conditions (CC) on UUU, DDD, ccc, and QQQ; these are stated in the model item and correspond to §2, pp. 3–4.

A history policy σ=(g0,g1,…)\sigma=(g_0,g_1,\ldots)σ=(g0​,g1​,…) chooses AnA_nAn​ measurably from the states and actions observed through time nnn. Starting from xxx, it induces a law for the state-action trajectory. The first nnn stages incur the discounted cost Cβn=∑k=0n−1βkc(Xk,Ak)C^n_\beta=\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}\beta^k c(X_k,A_k)Cβn​=∑k=0n−1​βkc(Xk​,Ak​), with Cβ0=0C^0_\beta=0Cβ0​=0. The paper minimizes Exσ[U(CβN)]E_x^\sigma[U(C^N_\beta)]Exσ​[U(CβN​)] over every admissible history policy. The inverse utility appearing in the paper's original certainty-equivalent criterion can be omitted when selecting a minimizer because UUU is strictly increasing §2, p. 3; §3.3, p. 10.

The extended state is E^=E×[0,∞)×(0,1]\hat E=E\times[0,\infty)\times(0,1]E^=E×[0,∞)×(0,1]. Its coordinates (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) record the current physical state, accumulated cost, and current discount weight. Define Vnσ(x,y,z)=Exσ[U(y+zCβn)]V_{n\sigma}(x,y,z)=E_x^\sigma[U(y+zC^n_\beta)]Vnσ​(x,y,z)=Exσ​[U(y+zCβn​)] and Vn=inf⁡σ∈ΠVnσV_n=\inf_{\sigma\in\Pi}V_{n\sigma}Vn​=infσ∈Π​Vnσ​. A measurable extended-state decision rule fff chooses an action in D(x)D(x)D(x). The paper's operator TfT_fTf​ integrates a continuation value at (x′,y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),zβ)(x',y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),z\beta)(x′,y+zc(x,f(x,y,z)),zβ); TTT takes the infimum of the same integral over D(x)D(x)D(x) equations (3.8)–(3.9), pp. 10–11.

Formalization targets

The first target identifies the cost iteration of any sequence of extended-state rules π=(f0,f1,…)\pi=(f_0,f_1,\ldots)π=(f0​,f1​,…):

Vnπ=Tf0⋯Tfn−1U,1≤n≤N.V_{n\pi}=T_{f_0}\cdots T_{f_{n-1}}U,\qquad 1\le n\le N.Vnπ​=Tf0​​⋯Tfn−1​​U,1≤n≤N.

The second target is the paper's value iteration for the infimum over all history policies, together with membership of every VnV_nVn​ in its regularity class C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^):

V0(x,y,z)=U(y),Vn=TVn−1,Vn∈C(E^).V_0(x,y,z)=U(y),\qquad V_n=TV_{n-1},\qquad V_n\in C(\hat E).V0​(x,y,z)=U(y),Vn​=TVn−1​,Vn​∈C(E^).

The goal is Theorem 3.6(c): minimizers fk∗f_k^*fk∗​ of Vk−1V_{k-1}Vk−1​ exist, and their stage-dependent history rules attain the original objective JN(x)=VN(x,0,1)J_N(x)=V_N(x,0,1)JN​(x)=VN​(x,0,1) for every xxx. At stage n<Nn<Nn<N, the rule uses fN−n∗f_{N-n}^*fN−n∗​ at the current state, the observed sum ∑j<nβjc(Xj,Aj)\sum_{j<n}\beta^jc(X_j,A_j)∑j<n​βjc(Xj​,Aj​), and βn\beta^nβn. “Optimal” compares against all admissible history policies, including those that use more of the history than these three quantities.

Significance

Theorem 3.6 gives a finite sequence of minimum-operator evaluations for a problem whose utility of total cost is not additively separable in the physical state alone. Its policy statement also identifies which observable quantities an optimal controller needs to retain. Together, these results relate the original history-dependent problem to an extended-state Markov decision problem §3.3, pp. 10–12.

The paper proves these statements. This mission asks for machine-checked definitions and proofs of the finite-horizon discounted theorem, including the comparison with all admissible history policies. The model layer and the finite-dimensional expectation construction can support later formalizations of other risk-sensitive objectives. The mission itself has no completed proof at the drafting stage.

Difficulty

The extra discount coordinate is essential: after one action, the next cost enters utility with weight zβz\betazβ, not zzz. Keeping only accumulated cost would describe a different process. The other demanding point is the policy comparison. An iteration over extended-state decision rules has to establish the value of an infimum over arbitrary measurable history policies. Regularity and measurable selection must also be maintained at each step under (CC). The proof of Theorem 3.6 invokes the corresponding total-cost argument from Theorem 3.1, pp. 5–6; the formal development must supply the precise discounted version.

Formalization scope

Lean represents EEE and AAA as Borel subsets of Polish spaces, with standard Borel measurable structures. The controlled process is a separate reusable definition containing DDD, QQQ, and history policies; the risk-sensitive model adds ccc, β\betaβ, and UUU. The admissible graph is Borel and every section D(x)D(x)D(x) is nonempty. A history is a chronological finite list of earlier state-action pairs and a current state. Each rule is defined on all lists, but only admissible lists of the matching length are visited. The transition kernel is total as a Lean object, and its values outside DDD are irrelevant.

Policy values use nested kernel integrals representing the finite-dimensional marginals of the path law. They are defined from the cost and utility, so the Bellman recursion remains a theorem. The optimized value is an infimum over the subtype of measurable, admissible infinite history policies. The real infimum is meaningful here because this policy class is nonempty under (CC) and finite-horizon costs keep utility bounded on the relevant interval. The extended state uses real coordinates restricted to y≥0y\ge0y≥0 and 0<z≤10<z\le10<z≤1; its transition stays in that domain. “Increasing” in C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) means componentwise nondecreasing in (y,z)(y,z)(y,z). A minimizer is an admissible measurable rule satisfying Tfv=TvT_fv=TvTf​v=Tv on the entire extended domain.

The source's proof sentence that TTT preserves C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) is recorded with explicit integrability of each one-step continuation. For an arbitrary real-valued member of C(E^)C(\hat E)C(E^) on an unbounded state space, the source's conditions alone do not ensure a finite real expectation. This domain condition prevents Lean's zero value for a nonintegrable real integral from turning the assertion into a different one. It does not narrow the finite-horizon values appearing in the goal. Contributions toward finite-dimensional expectation identities, kernel integrability, the regularity of VnV_nVn​, and measurable minimizer selection are within scope.

Selected references

  • N. Bäuerle and U. Rieder, More Risk-Sensitive Markov Decision Processes, authors' manuscript, KIT repository 1000039663; published in Mathematics of Operations Research 39(1):105–120, 2014. Manuscript; DOI.
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information 2: The Minimal Expected Cost Lies Between the Complete-Information and Open-Loop ValuesResearch Paper

Why observations matter in finite-horizon control

When a controller acts on a system whose state is hidden, measurements may help it choose later actions, but the value of those measurements depends on the transition law, the observation mechanism, and the available controls. Åström's 1965 paper gave a finite-state formulation of this problem and compared the best expected loss under incomplete measurements with two limiting cases: exact state observations and no useful observations. The comparison, stated in (5.12), quantifies the value of the information available to the controller without requiring a particular numerical example. Åström, 1965.

The bounds are useful when an exact partially observed policy is difficult to calculate. The complete-information problem provides an optimistic benchmark, because a controller that sees the hidden state can condition its decision on more information. The open-loop problem provides a conservative benchmark, because it commits to a control schedule without responding to later measurements. Both auxiliary problems have simpler backward equations than the partially observed problem, as Åström notes in §V of the paper. Åström, 1965, pp. 190–193.

Model and notation

The hidden state xtx_txt​ belongs to a finite nonempty set SSS, and the measured output yty_tyt​ belongs to a finite nonempty set YYY. There are N≥1N\ge1N≥1 decision stages. At stage ttt, a control u(t)u(t)u(t) is chosen from a nonempty compact set U⊆RdU\subseteq\mathbb R^dU⊆Rd. Given state iii and control u(t)u(t)u(t), the next state is jjj with probability pij(u(t),t+1)p_{ij}(u(t),t+1)pij​(u(t),t+1). At state iii, the observed output is jjj with probability qijq_{ij}qij​; observations are conditionally independent given the state path. The stage loss is g(u,i,t)g(u,i,t)g(u,i,t), with no fixed sign, terminal loss, or discount. The transition probabilities and loss are continuous in the control. Åström, 1965, §II.

An admissible control law may use the whole output history y1,…,yty_1,\ldots,y_ty1​,…,yt​ when choosing u(t)u(t)u(t). Write J(c)J(c)J(c) for its expected total loss, computed from the joint law of the state and output paths, and write OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT for the infimum of J(c)J(c)J(c) over every such admissible law. The distribution of x1x_1x1​ is p1p_1p1​. After the first output η1\eta_1η1​, the belief w(1)w(1)w(1) is the conditional distribution of x1x_1x1​. More generally, w(t)w(t)w(t) is the conditional distribution of xtx_txt​ given outputs through time ttt, when that history has positive probability.

Three backward values describe the information regimes. The partial-observation value Vk(w)V_k(w)Vk​(w) obeys the Bayesian recursion (3.28). The complete-information value Vk′(w)V'_k(w)Vk′​(w) is the linear extension ∑iSk(i)wi\sum_i S_k(i)w_i∑i​Sk​(i)wi​ of the statewise recursion (5.4). The open-loop value Vk′′(w)V''_k(w)Vk′′​(w) obeys (5.7), in which the belief moves by prediction through P(u)P(u)P(u) without using an output. Each recursion has terminal value zero at N+1N+1N+1. Åström, 1965, pp. 184, 190–191.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2 identifies the partial-observation value with the original control problem: a selector attaining the minimum in (3.28) exists, and every such selector yields an admissible feedback law attaining OPT=Eη1V1(w(1))\mathrm{OPT}=\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1))OPT=Eη1​​V1​(w(1)). Theorem 4 gives the complete-information lower bound Vk′(w)≤Vk(w)V'_k(w)\le V_k(w)Vk′​(w)≤Vk​(w), and Theorem 5 gives the open-loop upper bound Vk(w)≤Vk′′(w)V_k(w)\le V''_k(w)Vk​(w)≤Vk′′​(w) for every probability belief and every stage 1≤k≤N1\le k\le N1≤k≤N. Both inequalities apply to a general observation matrix. Åström, 1965, Theorems 2, 4 and 5.

The goal is the paper's expected-cost comparison (5.12), with its middle term explicitly identified as the minimum of the original problem:

OPT=Eη1V1(w(1)),Eη1V1′(w(1))≤OPT≤Eη1V1′′(w(1)).\mathrm{OPT}=\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1)),\qquad \mathbb E_{\eta_1}V'_1(w(1))\le\mathrm{OPT}\le \mathbb E_{\eta_1}V''_1(w(1)).OPT=Eη1​​V1​(w(1)),Eη1​​V1′​(w(1))≤OPT≤Eη1​​V1′′​(w(1)).

Here the expectation is over the first measured output under p1p_1p1​ and QQQ. An output with probability zero contributes zero. The left and right members represent, respectively, the costs with perfect state information and with no useful measurements. Åström, 1965, (5.12), p. 193.

What the result provides

For any model satisfying the stated finite-state assumptions, the two easier dynamic programs bracket the best achievable expected loss with partial information. The differences between these values are the paper's measures of the value of perfect state information and the value of incomplete state information, described immediately after (5.12). Because the loss may have either sign, these are order comparisons of minimal costs rather than bounds that depend on a nonnegativity convention. Åström, 1965, (5.13)–(5.14).

The mathematical result was established in the paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its finite-path model, the three value recursions, the identification of P.1's minimum, and the information bounds. The value functions are linked by shared definitions, so later finite-state partially observed control developments can reuse the pathwise cost and Bayes update instead of rebuilding them for each theorem.

Where the proof is difficult

The tempting comparison between the three Bellman equations cannot simply replace the posterior belief by its average: the controller may choose different actions after different observations, and the continuation value is generally nonlinear in the belief. The exact-information case must also be read at beliefs concentrated at a single state. Its value formula is linear in an arbitrary input belief by definition, but the partial-observation value need not equal that linear function away from those state vertices. A second issue is connecting a feedback solution of (3.28) to the original expected loss over all output-history laws; using a belief-defined objective at the outset would assume the identification that Theorem 2 establishes.

Formalization scope

The Lean model uses finite state, output, and horizon types, a nonempty compact control set in Rd\mathbb R^dRd, stochastic transition and observation rows, and continuous dependence on controls where the paper requires it. All probabilities and expectations are finite sums and products. A Fin N index of zero represents paper time one. The model starts from the law of x1x_1x1​, since §II introduces the law of x0x_0x0​ but specifies neither a control at time zero nor the transition to x1x_1x1​. The transition controlled at time ttt is therefore written with the paper's transition index t+1t+1t+1. These conventions make the first-output expectation and (3.22) use the same timing.

The norm of zjz^jzj is its ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1 norm, the sum of absolute coordinates. At an impossible output, Lean's totalized posterior is zero; the associated continuation term has weight zero. Conditional-probability claims apply only to positive-probability histories. Each minimum over controls is represented by a real infimum over UUU. The compact control set is nonempty and the continuous costs are bounded on it, so this has the intended finite attained meaning on probability beliefs. The terminal values VN+1V_{N+1}VN+1​, SN+1S_{N+1}SN+1​ and VN+1′′V''_{N+1}VN+1′′​ are zero.

The original objective is a separate pathwise expected cost, minimized over all admissible output-history laws. The target includes its equality with Eη1V1(w(1))\mathbb E_{\eta_1}V_1(w(1))Eη1​​V1​(w(1)); stating only an inequality between three unrelated Bellman solutions would omit the subject of (5.12). Reusable contributions include finite-path probability identities, the Bayes recursion, attainment for continuous control minima, and the three value comparisons. No special observation matrix is assumed in Theorems 4, 5, or the goal.

Selected references

  • K. J. Åström, Optimal Control of Markov Processes with Incomplete State Information, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 10(1):174–205, 1965. DOI: 10.1016/0022-247X(65)90154-X.
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Algorithmic Game Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games III: The Price of Anarchy of the Maximum Social Cost Is Theta(sqrt N)Research Paper

Motivation

In a congestion game, several users choose facilities and each facility becomes more costly as more users choose it. Such games model settings in which each participant chooses a route or collection of resources for personal use while the resulting load is shared. A pure Nash equilibrium is a stable choice of routes: no single participant can lower their own cost by switching. Stability alone gives no assurance that the resulting allocation serves the group well. The price of anarchy compares the social cost of an equilibrium with the best social cost attainable by coordinated choices.

Christodoulou and Koutsoupias studied finite congestion games with linear latency functions and several notions of social cost. For the maximum cost borne by any player, their STOC 2005 paper gives both an upper bound valid for all such games and a family of instances showing that its square-root dependence on the number of players has the right order. This mission formalizes those two claims together. The maximum criterion matters when a single heavily delayed user is significant even if the total cost of the population is moderate.

Setting

Let N≥1N\ge1N≥1 be the number of players and let EEE be a finite set of facilities. Player iii has a finite collection Σi\Sigma_iΣi​ of available pure strategies, each a subset of EEE. A profile AAA chooses one strategy Ai∈ΣiA_i\in\Sigma_iAi​∈Σi​ for every player. For a facility eee, its load ne(A)n_e(A)ne​(A) is the number of players whose chosen strategy contains eee. The latency of eee at load nnn is fe(n)f_e(n)fe​(n). Player iii pays the sum of the latencies on the facilities they chose:

ci(A)=∑e∈Aife(ne(A)).c_i(A)=\sum_{e\in A_i}f_e(n_e(A)).ci​(A)=e∈Ai​∑​fe​(ne​(A)).

A profile is a pure Nash equilibrium if no player can decrease this cost by replacing their own strategy while the others keep theirs. The paper calls latencies linear when fe(n)=aen+bef_e(n)=a_en+b_efe​(n)=ae​n+be​ with ae,be≥0a_e,b_e\ge0ae​,be​≥0; these are affine functions in standard terminology. The paper displays many calculations for the special case fe(n)=nf_e(n)=nfe​(n)=n and states the general nonnegative affine convention in its model section. The maximum social cost is MAX⁡(A)=max⁡ici(A)\operatorname{MAX}(A)=\max_i c_i(A)MAX(A)=maxi​ci​(A); the total cost is SUM⁡(A)=∑ici(A)\operatorname{SUM}(A)=\sum_i c_i(A)SUM(A)=∑i​ci​(A). The paper's average social cost is SUM⁡(A)/N\operatorname{SUM}(A)/NSUM(A)/N.

For a game with at least one pure Nash equilibrium and a positive optimal maximum cost, the maximum-cost pure price of anarchy is the largest equilibrium value of MAX⁡\operatorname{MAX}MAX divided by the smallest feasible value. The Lean targets use inequalities against every feasible comparison profile PPP rather than dividing by an optimum. This form continues to say something when an optimum has cost zero, and finite strategy sets ensure an optimum exists whenever the profile space is nonempty.

Formalization targets

Universal upper bound

For every N≥1N\ge1N≥1, every finite game with nonnegative affine latencies, every pure Nash equilibrium AAA, and every feasible profile PPP, Theorem 5's proof yields

MAX⁡(A)≤(1+5N2)MAX⁡(P).\operatorname{MAX}(A)\le \left(1+\sqrt{\frac{5N}{2}}\right)\operatorname{MAX}(P).MAX(A)≤(1+25N​​)MAX(P).

This states a numerical version of the paper's O(N)O(\sqrt N)O(N​) theorem without an unspecified constant. Taking PPP to minimize MAX⁡\operatorname{MAX}MAX gives the corresponding price-of-anarchy bound. The bound is about asymmetric games: players may have different strategy sets, and no symmetry assumption is present.

Lower-bound family

For every integer k≥2k\ge2k≥2, let N=k(k−1)+1N=k(k-1)+1N=k(k−1)+1. Theorem 6 provides an identity-latency congestion game with NNN players and kNkNkN facilities, a pure Nash profile AAA, and an optimal profile PPP for which

MAX⁡(A)=k2,MAX⁡(P)=k.\operatorname{MAX}(A)=k^2,\qquad \operatorname{MAX}(P)=k.MAX(A)=k2,MAX(P)=k.

Every feasible profile in the instance has maximum cost at least kkk. Thus the ratio is kkk, and k≥Nk\ge\sqrt Nk≥N​. The proof's explicit instance has positive comparison cost, so the lower bound cannot be satisfied by a zero-cost game. The source also says such behavior occurs in network congestion games and sketches a network realization in Figure 2; this mission's formal lower target is the finite congestion-game construction.

Significance

Together these results identify the order of growth of the worst pure equilibrium maximum cost relative to an optimum: it can grow with the population, yet for linear latencies it grows no faster than a constant times N\sqrt NN​. The upper statement applies to any feasible comparison profile, so it can also be used when a convenient benchmark is known without solving the entire optimization problem. The lower family prevents replacing the square-root dependence by a bound independent of NNN for this class of games.

The results are proved in the 2005 paper; the mission is to give them machine-checked Lean proofs in a common finite-game representation. The development also supplies reusable definitions of congestion games, loads, pure cost equilibria, and maximum social cost, together with the total-cost estimate of Theorem 1 and the intermediate bounds appearing in Theorem 5. The current draft contains statements with sorry placeholders, not completed proofs.

Difficulty

A bound on total player cost does not directly control the cost of the most expensive player sharply enough. An individual player can use several facilities whose loads interact, and bounding each load separately loses the dependence required for the square-root result. Affine coefficients add another issue: the proof printed for identity latencies writes a cardinality where the general statement needs a coefficient-weighted quantity. The lower example has an indexing discrepancy in the printed alternative strategies, so the intended Nash profile must be checked against the costs on every permitted deviation.

Formalization scope

Players are represented by Fin N; facilities by an arbitrary finite type in upper bounds and by a type with kNkNkN elements in the lower family. A profile is a function from players to finite facility sets, with feasibility stated separately. Latencies are real-valued on natural-number loads. The IsLinear predicate requires explicit nonnegative affine coefficients. Pure Nash uses a cost inequality; it is the negative-payoff version of a standard finite game's payoff equilibrium. MAX requires at least one player, and all upper-bound targets therefore require N≥1N\ge1N≥1. The lower family begins at k=2k=2k=2, where N=k(k−1)+1N=k(k-1)+1N=k(k−1)+1 is positive.

The source's number k2−k+1k^2-k+1k2−k+1 is written as k(k−1)+1k(k-1)+1k(k−1)+1 in Lean to keep natural-number subtraction inside its valid range. The two expressions agree for k≥2k\ge2k≥2. In the source's one-based indexing, the proposed alternative strategy uses a ceiling index. The printed denominator kkk makes some alternative facilities carry k+1k+1k+1 users and breaks the Nash assertion; denominator k−1k-1k−1 agrees with Figure 2's k−1k-1k−1 short-route users per layer and gives the stated costs. This correction is recorded with the lower theorem. No normalization of coefficients or artificially restricted strategy class is assumed. Contributions to the finite-game definitions, Theorem 1, the player-cost bounds, and the explicit lower instance are all in scope.

Selected references

  • G. Christodoulou and E. Koutsoupias, The Price of Anarchy of Finite Congestion Games, Proceedings of the 37th Annual ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing, 2005. DOI: 10.1145/1060590.1060600.
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Graph TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Graphon Mean Field Systems I: The Law of the Graphon Particle System Depends Continuously on the Graphon in the Cut MetricResearch Paper

Motivation

Large interacting diffusion systems often have different interaction strengths between different pairs of agents. A graphon gives a continuum description of such weighted networks: each agent carries a label in [0,1][0,1][0,1], and a kernel assigns the strength of interaction between two labels. The question in this mission is whether the law of the resulting continuum stochastic system changes continuously when its graphon changes. This matters when a large finite network is represented by an approximate graphon, since an approximation of the network should lead to an approximation of the dynamics. Bayraktar, Chakraborty and Wu establish this stability as Theorem 2.1(c) of Graphon mean field systems.

The paper also studies dense and less dense finite-particle systems. Their convergence results use a limiting graphon particle system even when the limiting kernel is only measurable, with no continuity in the labels. Theorem 2.1(c) is the continuity result that makes approximation by simpler graphons useful in those later sections Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§3–4.

Setting

Let I=[0,1]I=[0,1]I=[0,1], fix a time horizon T>0T>0T>0, and let Cd=C([0,T];Rd)\mathcal C_d=C([0,T];\mathbb R^d)Cd​=C([0,T];Rd) be the space of continuous paths with the uniform norm ∥x∥∗,t=sup⁡0≤s≤t∣xs∣\|x\|_{*,t}=\sup_{0\le s\le t}|x_s|∥x∥∗,t​=sup0≤s≤t​∣xs​∣. A graphon G:I2→[0,1]G:I^2\to[0,1]G:I2→[0,1] is measurable and symmetric. Its cut norm is the largest absolute integral of GGG over a measurable rectangle S×U⊆I2S\times U\subseteq I^2S×U⊆I2. For two graphons, their cut distance is the cut norm of their difference.

For each label u∈Iu\in Iu∈I, an initial state Xu(0)X_u(0)Xu​(0) and a ddd-dimensional Brownian motion BuB_uBu​ live on one probability space. Initial states are mutually independent, Brownian motions are mutually independent, and the two families are independent of each other. The initial state has law μu(0)\mu_u(0)μu​(0). The process XuX_uXu​ evolves with a drift obtained by averaging b(Xu(s),x)G(u,v)b(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)b(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v) first against the time-sss law of XvX_vXv​ and then over v∈Iv\in Iv∈I. Its diffusion coefficient averages the matrix-valued σ(Xu(s),x)G(u,v)\sigma(X_u(s),x)G(u,v)σ(Xu​(s),x)G(u,v) in the same way and drives BuB_uBu​. This is the graphon particle system (2.1) Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, p. 3591.

Condition 2.1 requires measurable initial laws, a uniform (2+ε)(2+\varepsilon)(2+ε) moment for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, and a common global Lipschitz bound for bbb and σ\sigmaσ. The path-law family μ=(L(Xu))u∈I\mu=(\mathcal L(X_u))_{u\in I}μ=(L(Xu​))u∈I​ belongs to M\mathcal MM when it is measurable as a family of probability measures on Cd\mathcal C_dCd​ and has uniformly bounded second moments. The distance W2,tW_{2,t}W2,t​ between path laws uses the supremum norm through time ttt; W2,tMW^\mathcal M_{2,t}W2,tM​ is the supremum of these distances over labels Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, pp. 3591–3592.

Formalization targets

Stability of path laws

For graphons GnG_nGn​ converging to GGG in cut metric, let μuGn\mu^{G_n}_uμuGn​​ and μuG\mu^G_uμuG​ be the laws of the associated solutions, with the same initial laws and coefficients. The target is

∥Gn−G∥□⟶0⟹∫I[W2,T(μuGn,μuG)]2 du⟶0.\|G_n-G\|_\square\longrightarrow0 \quad\Longrightarrow\quad \int_I[W_{2,T}(\mu^{G_n}_u,\mu^G_u)]^2\,du\longrightarrow0.∥Gn​−G∥□​⟶0⟹∫I​[W2,T​(μuGn​​,μuG​)]2du⟶0.

The conclusion is an integrated law convergence statement. It does not assert that the laws converge uniformly in uuu or that paths converge almost surely. This is precisely Theorem 2.1(c) Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, p. 3593.

Supporting results

The mission also states the paper's cut-to-operator convergence (Remark 2.1), existence of frozen-flow solutions (5.2), the squared estimate established in the proof of (5.3), well-posedness and moments for the nonlinear system (Proposition 2.1), and the quantitative stability display on p. 3604. These are the source's claims used to reach the target, with their provenance attached to each milestone Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§2 and 5.

Significance

Stability shows that the continuum model is robust to graphon approximation in a metric natural for dense networks. Together with Proposition 2.1, it gives a well-defined solution-law family whose dependence on the network kernel can be controlled. The paper uses this framework in its later laws of large numbers for finite interacting systems Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §§3–4.

The theorem is proved in the paper; this mission asks for a machine-checked proof of the faithful statements. A complete development would also supply reusable Lean interfaces for graphons, cut and operator norms, measurable families of path laws, and stochastic systems whose coefficients depend on those families. The Itô-process and general Wasserstein definitions already available as published modules are reused. The remaining graphon-specific definitions and the estimates in §5 are open proof targets.

Difficulty

A direct stability argument for stochastic differential equations would compare the two coefficients point by point. Cut convergence does not provide pointwise convergence of Gn(u,v)G_n(u,v)Gn​(u,v) to G(u,v)G(u,v)G(u,v), nor a uniform bound on their difference that tends to zero. The drift and diffusion also contain laws generated by the processes being compared, so a change in the graphon feeds back into the law family. The central challenge is to control these coupled differences using only a weak kernel metric while retaining the measurable structure needed to integrate over labels Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, §5.2.

The result also depends on a well-posedness theory for a continuum of stochastic equations. The laws need to vary measurably with uuu even though the paper does not assume the sample paths themselves vary measurably with uuu Bayraktar–Chakraborty–Wu, Remark 2.3(b).

Formalization scope

Lean uses unitInterval for III, nonnegative real time, and continuous maps from [0,T][0,T][0,T] to Fin d → ℝ for Cd\mathcal C_dCd​. The norm on Rd\mathbb R^dRd is the sup norm; the paper's Euclidean norm is equivalent in finite dimension, so existential Lipschitz and stability constants may change while the qualitative claim remains the same. The diffusion coefficient is a d×dd\times dd×d matrix, measured through its entries. Wasserstein quantities and nonnegative expectations are valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], avoiding defaults for infinite moments. The path-law family uses the measurable space of measures, with the Borel space on paths. A zero-time or zero-dimensional state space is admitted where the formulas still have their stated meaning; T>0T>0T>0 and ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 are explicit.

For each graphon, a solution is a continuous-path process driven by the same given initial variables and Brownian motions, adapted to the natural filtration of those variables for each label. Its path map is almost everywhere measurable, its law family belongs to M\mathcal MM, and the nested interaction integrals are required to be integrable. These clauses prevent a zero measure from arising through a nonmeasurable pushforward and prevent a nonintegrable Bochner integral from silently evaluating to zero. The graphons are explicitly measurable, symmetric, and [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued, so the real cut and operator norms are used only on bounded kernels. The theorem also asserts measurability of each Wasserstein integrand, reflecting the paper's treatment of the displayed integral.

The paper's proofs are in §§5–7; this mission concerns §5. Contributions to any stated milestone and to the reusable measure and Itô lemmas needed for them are welcome. A formalization that assumes the stability limit, that treats arbitrary unbounded kernels as graphons, or that uses an empty solution class would not establish this target.

Selected references

  • E. Bayraktar, S. Chakraborty and R. Wu, Graphon mean field systems, Annals of Applied Probability 33(5), 3587–3619, 2023. DOI 10.1214/22-AAP1901.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks I: Every Supply Chain Network Has a Unique General Equilibrium of Rerouting Prices, Switching Costs and Default CascadesResearch Paper

Motivation

A failed buyer can leave a supplier with goods it can no longer sell through an existing order. A failed supplier can leave a buyer without inputs for future production. In a network, either loss can weaken another firm and start a sequence of defaults. Birge, Capponi and Chen model these effects together with two responses: suppliers reroute unsold goods to other buyers, and buyers seek replacement suppliers. Their accepted manuscript asks whether the resulting market decisions and the default cascade determine a single outcome. The issue matters when a network's resilience or fragility is measured from that outcome: a measure based on an unspecified equilibrium would not be well defined.

Setting

A supply chain order network has finitely many firms i,ji,ji,j and goods mmm. An order oijmo^m_{ij}oijm​ is the nonnegative quantity of good mmm that firm iii promises to deliver to firm jjj. The network also records each good's original price pmp^mpm, each firm's initial equity wiw_iwi​, its safety stock θim\theta_i^mθim​ and holding cost λim\lambda_i^mλim​, and a realized net production cost cic_ici​. The realization is fixed throughout this mission; the source treats it as random when comparing network performance later in the paper. Rerouting one unit costs firm iii an amount ιim\iota_i^mιim​; an unfilled unit of demand incurs back-order cost bimb_i^mbim​. These costs and the orders and stocks are nonnegative. The basic model is on pp. 8–17 of the manuscript.

If firm jjj defaults, a promised delivery to it is not made. Write γijm\gamma^m_{ij}γijm​ for this undelivered order, and rˉim=∑jγijm\bar r_i^m=\sum_j\gamma^m_{ij}rˉim​=∑j​γijm​ for firm iii's total amount of good mmm available to reroute. If a supplier jjj defaults, write δjim\delta^m_{ji}δjim​ for the buyer iii's lost input. After using safety stock, that buyer's unserved demand is σˉim=(∑jδjim−θim)+\bar\sigma_i^m=(\sum_j\delta^m_{ji}-\theta_i^m)^+σˉim​=(∑j​δjim​−θim​)+, where x+=max⁡(0,x)x^+=\max(0,x)x+=max(0,x). These are the quantities in equations (1)–(5).

The rerouted market for good mmm contains firms with rˉim>0\bar r_i^m>0rˉim​>0. At price πim\pi_i^mπim​, firm iii can sell up to rˉim\bar r_i^mrˉim​. Aggregate demand at price π\piπ is dm(π)d_m(\pi)dm​(π), with inverse demand dm−1d_m^{-1}dm−1​. The sourcing market contains firms with σˉim>0\bar\sigma_i^m>0σˉim​>0. At switching cost κim\kappa_i^mκim​, firm iii can replace up to σˉim\bar\sigma_i^mσˉim​ units. Aggregate supply is sm(κ)s_m(\kappa)sm​(κ), with inverse supply sm−1s_m^{-1}sm−1​. In either market, an efficient allocation maximizes the stated integral objective over the capacity box, and allocates proportionally to capacity among firms quoting the same price or cost. A partial equilibrium additionally makes every active firm's quoted price or cost a best response to all nonnegative unilateral deviations. These are Definitions 2.1–2.2 and 3.1–3.2.

A firm's ex-post net worth ei∗e_i^*ei∗​ combines original-order revenue, production and stock costs, rerouting revenue and cost, and back-order and replacement-supplier costs exactly as in equation (10). A firm defaults when its net worth is strictly negative. Starting with no undelivered orders or unserved demand, the update maps Φ∗\Phi^*Φ∗ and Ψ∗\Psi^*Ψ∗ mark all orders affected by firms that default after each market has reached its partial equilibrium. A market stable state is both the limit of that sequence and a fixed point of the update. A general equilibrium combines such a state with a partial equilibrium in every market (Definitions 3.3–3.4 and equation (18)).

Formalization targets

The goal is Proposition 4.3, stated on p. 24:

∃! (Π,K,Γ,Δ)  GeneralEquilibrium⁡(Π,K,Γ,Δ).\exists!\,(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta)\;\operatorname{GeneralEquilibrium}(\Pi,K,\Gamma,\Delta).∃!(Π,K,Γ,Δ)GeneralEquilibrium(Π,K,Γ,Δ).

The quadruple consists of rerouting prices Π\PiΠ, switching costs KKK, undelivered orders Γ\GammaΓ, and unserved demand Δ\DeltaΔ. The claim includes existence and uniqueness of the full outcome, not merely of its default set. The milestone list follows the paper's dependency path: Propositions A.3 and A.6 identify the unique efficient allocations in the two markets; Propositions 4.1 and 4.2 identify their partial equilibria; Lemma A.7 states that greater disruption cannot increase any firm's partial-equilibrium net worth; and Lemma A.8 states that the default updates are bounded and increasing. The numbered results and their equations are in the E-Companion, EC pp. 4–12, and the main text, p. 22.

Significance

Proposition 4.3 makes the network's outcome a function of its order commitments, stocks, prices, market functions, and realized production costs. Later comparisons of network structures can therefore refer to the equilibrium without choosing among several price or default profiles. The result also separates local market choice from the way losses spread through the network: a firm can reroute or switch optimally and still fail once the effects of other failures are accounted for.

The paper proves the result in its E-Companion, EC pp. 12–13. This mission concerns a Lean statement of that known result and the reusable definitions needed to check a proof. The draft propositions are open proof obligations; this proposal does not claim machine-checked proofs of them. The two market allocation predicates, the default update, and the cascade limit can also support later formal work on the paper's resilience results.

Difficulty

The market and network conditions interact. An arbitrary fixed point of the default update need not be the state reached from zero; using only the fixed-point equation loses the uniqueness asserted by the paper. Conversely, knowing a cascade limit does not by itself show that the limit is fixed, because the update changes discontinuously when a firm's net worth crosses zero. At the market level, the price and switching-cost equilibria must be established from optimization and best-response conditions. Writing the formulas for the claimed equilibrium prices into those definitions would leave the central market claims unproved.

Formalization scope

Firms are Fin N and goods are Fin M, with N,M>0N,M>0N,M>0; the source numbers both from one, while Lean numbers them from zero. Orders and all default matrices are real valued and coordinatewise ordered. Active markets may be empty, as at the start of the cascade. Market objectives are ordinary real interval integrals over finite capacity boxes. The standing conditions include the paper's smoothness, concavity, and monotonicity assumptions on demand wherever it is positive and on the supply function, plus inverse identities and continuity on the quantity ranges used by the model. The inverse functions remain general data tied to dmd_mdm​ and sms_msm​; no linear demand or supply curve is imposed.

Several domain conventions make the displayed formulas meaningful. Assumption 2.1's minimum order is read over positive-order suppliers of a good; over all firms it would force zero safety stock whenever a nonsupplier exists. The inverse supply is nonnegative on feasible quantities, with sm(0)≤0s_m(0)\le0sm​(0)≤0, so the claimed switching cost belongs to the nonnegative strategy space. Demand inverse at zero is fixed to the reservation price. Assumptions 4.1–4.2 apply at each positive active-market total; for the general-equilibrium goal they are required for every binary 0/oijm0/o^m_{ij}0/oijm​ profile the cascade can visit. Differentiability at those totals is explicit. Initial equity and the order, stock, holding, rerouting, and back-order data are nonnegative; the realized net production cost can have either sign. The model uses the p. 23 convention for prices and costs outside active markets.

An efficient allocation remains an optimizer of equations (7) or (9), with proportional tie handling; a partial equilibrium remains a best response to every admissible deviation. The general equilibrium includes both the limit from zero and the fixed-point condition. These clauses exclude an equilibrium that is true by definition or a fixed point unrelated to the default cascade. The source's informal statement that every firm “supplies, consumes, or purchases” a good has no separate activity flag in this model; a firm with no internal order can still have outside production or consumption represented in cic_ici​. Milestone statements involving arbitrary disruption profiles restrict them to the feasible order box [0,O][0,O][0,O], where the market inverses are defined.

Selected references

  • John R. Birge, Agostino Capponi, and Peng-Chu Chen, Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks, accepted manuscript dated October 31, 2022, SSRN 3669363; published in Operations Research, 2023, DOI 10.1287/opre.2022.2409.
9 thms1 active userReviewed
Optimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks II: A More Diversified Tiered Supply Chain Network Is More ResilientResearch Paper

Why order diversification matters

A firm can lose a planned input when one of its suppliers defaults. Safety stock can absorb some of that loss, while the rest becomes demand for replacement supply. A network with more buyer and supplier links spreads orders across more firms, but the resulting benefit depends on which firms default, how much each link carries, and the price of replacement supply. Birge, Capponi, and Chen study this interaction in a supply chain model with firm defaults, switched demand, and market prices. Their Theorem 5.1 asserts that a particular order-preserving form of diversification improves the network's resilience. This mission formalizes that comparison in the notation and conventions of the accepted manuscript, including its E-Companion proof.

The question is relevant to supply chain design because adding a link alone does not specify how much business moves to it. The theorem compares two networks that retain each firm's total incoming and outgoing order quantities. It therefore isolates the effect of redistributing those orders among more partners. The result concerns a precise resilience metric: the fraction of a network's baseline out-of-stock cost reduced by holding safety stock. It does not claim that diversification prevents all defaults or reduces every component of systemic loss.

Networks, defaults, and resilience

There are NNN firms and MMM goods. The order quantity oijmo^m_{ij}oijm​ is the amount of good mmm that firm iii promises to deliver to firm jjj. Good mmm has price pmp^mpm. Firm iii has initial equity wiw_iwi​ and a unit holding cost λim\lambda_i^mλim​ for safety stock of good mmm. Its realized net production cost is cic_ici​. Two networks AAA and BBB share prices, equity, holding costs, firms, and goods; their order quantities may differ. The source calls this five-part data a supply chain network, with a stock profile that is specialized here to a common scalar θ\thetaθ for the resilience comparison (§2, pp. 8–9; §5.1, p. 25).

A tiered network places each firm in a tier mi∈{1,…,M+1}m_i\in\{1,\ldots,M+1\}mi​∈{1,…,M+1}. A positive order of good mmm runs from tier mmm to tier m+1m+1m+1. Tier 1 firms supply good 1, tier M+1M+1M+1 firms buy good MMM, and every intermediate firm both buys and supplies its designated goods. The undirected graph underlying positive orders is connected. The model's supplier set UiU_iUi​ contains firms delivering good mi−1m_i-1mi​−1 to iii, and its buyer set LiL_iLi​ contains firms receiving good mim_imi​ from iii (§5.2–5.3, pp. 26–27).

For a common realization ccc and safety stock θ\thetaθ, the fundamental-default set D0(θ)D_0(\theta)D0​(θ) contains firms whose initial net worth is strictly negative:

D0(θ)={i:wi+∑m=1M(pm∑joijm−θλim)−ci<0}.D_0(\theta)=\left\{i: w_i+\sum_{m=1}^{M}\left(p^m\sum_j o^m_{ij}-\theta\lambda_i^m\right)-c_i<0\right\}.D0​(θ)={i:wi​+m=1∑M​(pmj∑​oijm​−θλim​)−ci​<0}.

The switched demand of firm iii for good mmm is σim(D0(θ),θ)=(∑k∈D0(θ)okim−θ)+\sigma_i^m(D_0(\theta),\theta)=\left(\sum_{k\in D_0(\theta)}o^m_{ki}-\theta\right)^+σim​(D0​(θ),θ)=(∑k∈D0​(θ)​okim​−θ)+. The inverse supply function sm−1s_m^{-1}sm−1​ prices the aggregate replacement demand for good mmm. Firm iii's cost ζi(θ)\zeta_i(\theta)ζi​(θ) sums holding cost and switched-demand cost over every good. The network's resilience ratio ζ(θ)\zeta(\theta)ζ(θ) is its aggregate reduction in this cost divided by aggregate cost at zero safety stock (§5.1, p. 25).

Formalization targets

For each firm, BBB is more diversified than AAA when total incoming and outgoing orders are unchanged, UiA⊆UiBU_i^A\subseteq U_i^BUiA​⊆UiB​ and LiA⊆LiBL_i^A\subseteq L_i^BLiA​⊆LiB​, and an expanded neighbor set divides orders into quantities no larger than the old quantities. Where a neighbor set is unchanged, its individual order quantities are unchanged. This is the complete condition of Definition 5.3, with the supplier good indexed as mi−1m_i-1mi​−1 as required by §5.2.

The goal is Theorem 5.1: for two tiered networks sharing their non-order data and tier assignment,

B more diversified than A⟹ζA(θ)≤ζB(θ)B\text{ more diversified than }A\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \zeta^A(\theta)\le\zeta^B(\theta)B more diversified than A⟹ζA(θ)≤ζB(θ)

for every admissible common safety stock θ\thetaθ and common realized production-cost vector ccc. The three milestones are the tier-grouped expression for total cost, its order comparison between AAA and BBB, and equality of their zero-stock baseline costs. They are the steps of the displayed chain in the E-Companion, EC p. 18, rather than separate numbered lemmas.

What the result establishes

The theorem gives an order-sensitive comparison of the paper's out-of-stock metric. It says that, under the stated redistribution constraints, the same amount of uniform safety stock offsets at least as large a fraction of baseline cost in the more diversified network. It supports comparisons of network designs with equal firm-level order totals. It does not rank networks with different equity, prices, or holding costs, and it does not address the paper's distinct contagion-based fragility metric (§5.1–5.3).

The result is proved in the paper; the open work here is its machine-checked formalization. The definitions of tiered order networks, fundamental defaults, switched demand, and the resilience ratio give reusable interfaces for later results about the same model. The draft Lean theorems state the full result and the three intermediate targets, with proofs left for solvers. The comparison also makes the paper's indexing and cost conventions explicit so those interfaces can be audited independently.

Where the difficulty lies

The default set depends on the order network, even though the two networks use the same realized costs. Thus a cost comparison cannot begin by treating defaulted firms as an unrelated common parameter. Moreover, switched demand takes a positive part after subtracting safety stock, and the inverse supply curve is evaluated at an aggregate across firms. Merely comparing individual orders or counting more links does not determine the resulting total cost. The final resilience ratio has a baseline-cost denominator that can be zero. The formalization has to cover that boundary case as well as positive baseline cost.

Formalization scope

Firms use Fin N; goods and tiers use the paper's one-based natural-number indices. Both NNN and MMM are positive. Orders and holding costs are nonnegative, prices are nonnegative, and initial equity is nonnegative (the source assumes every firm is initially solvent, p. 9). A tiered network has only consecutive-tier positive orders, has activity appropriate to every firm's tier, and has a connected underlying undirected graph. The two networks share ppp, www, λ\lambdaλ, the inverse supply curves, and the tier map. The source's tier-constant rerouting cost does not occur in the resilience metric and is not represented in these statements.

The paper prints Assumption 2.1 as a minimum over all firms. Since non-suppliers have zero orders, that literal reading would force θ=0\theta=0θ=0 and empty the theorem of its intended positive-stock content. The formalization reads the bound over actual suppliers, with θ≥0\theta\ge0θ≥0. It uses monotone inverse supply curves, as implied by Assumption 2.3, and explicitly requires their values to be nonnegative for nonnegative demand; the latter is an additional convention corresponding to nonnegative inverse supply prices. These choices appear in the definitions and in the statement audit notes.

The printed supplier-order superscript in Definition 5.3 uses mim_imi​, while §5.2 says firm iii buys good mi−1m_i-1mi​−1; the Lean definition uses the latter. The E-Companion's cost chain drops holding costs for goods a firm does not buy, although §5.1 sums them for all goods. The formalized cost and tier-grouped milestone retain the full sum. The paper states an almost-sure comparison under a random cost vector; its proof is pointwise, and the goal quantifies over every common realization. Each network computes its own default set. Lean sets 0/0=00/0=00/0=0, so a zero baseline cost requires no extra positive-denominator assumption. These conventions rule out a vacuous zero-stock reading or a cost formula weakened by omitting terms.

Selected references

  • J. R. Birge, A. Capponi, and P.-C. Chen, Disruption and Rerouting in Supply Chain Networks, accepted manuscript dated October 31, 2022, SSRN 3669363; Operations Research, 2023, DOI 10.1287/opre.2022.2409. The mission follows the manuscript's pagination and its E-Companion.
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Linear OptimizationMachine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Trained Neural Networks 2: Under Strict Activity Every Inequality of the Exponential Family (6b) Is Facet-DefiningResearch Paper

Motivation

Trained neural networks are increasingly embedded inside optimization models: to verify that a classifier is robust to small input perturbations, to optimize over a learned surrogate of an expensive system, or to choose decisions whose outcome is predicted by a network. When the network uses rectified linear units (ReLU), each neuron y=max⁡{0, w⋅x+b}y=\max\{0,\,w\cdot x+b\}y=max{0,w⋅x+b} is piecewise linear, and the whole network can be written exactly as a mixed-integer program (MIP) with one binary variable per neuron. How fast a branch-and-bound solver closes such a model depends on how tight the linear-programming relaxation of each neuron's formulation is.

Anderson, Huchette, Tjandraatmadja and Vielma (arXiv:1811.08359v2, the IPCO 2019 extended abstract) gave a formulation (6) of a single ReLU neuron over a box that uses only the original variables and one binary variable, and is ideal: its LP relaxation has integral extreme points (Proposition 1, p. 6). The price is an exponential family of inequalities (6b), one for every subset III of the support of www. The present mission formalizes their Proposition 2: each of these inequalities is facet-defining, so no member of the family can be dropped without weakening the relaxation. A longer journal version of the work, with different numbering, appeared later (arXiv:1811.01988); this mission follows the extended abstract.

Setting

Fix η∈N\eta\in\mathbb Nη∈N, a weight vector w∈Rηw\in\mathbb R^\etaw∈Rη, a bias b∈Rb\in\mathbb Rb∈R, and bounds L,U∈RηL,U\in\mathbb R^\etaL,U∈Rη with Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for every iii (§1.3, p. 4). Write f(x)=w⋅x+bf(x)=w\cdot x+bf(x)=w⋅x+b and [L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}[L,U]=\{x : L\le x\le U\}[L,U]={x:L≤x≤U}. The sign-adjusted bounds are

L˘i={Liwi≥0Uiwi<0,U˘i={Uiwi≥0Liwi<0,\breve L_i=\begin{cases}L_i & w_i\ge 0\\ U_i & w_i<0\end{cases},\qquad \breve U_i=\begin{cases}U_i & w_i\ge 0\\ L_i & w_i<0\end{cases},L˘i​={Li​Ui​​wi​≥0wi​<0​,U˘i​={Ui​Li​​wi​≥0wi​<0​,

so that M+(f)=w⋅U˘+bM^+(f)=w\cdot\breve U+bM+(f)=w⋅U˘+b and M−(f)=w⋅L˘+bM^-(f)=w\cdot\breve L+bM−(f)=w⋅L˘+b are the maximum and minimum of fff over [L,U][L,U][L,U]. The support is supp⁡(w)={i:wi≠0}\operatorname{supp}(w)=\{i : w_i\neq 0\}supp(w)={i:wi​=0}. Strict activity means M−(f)<0<M+(f)M^-(f)<0<M^+(f)M−(f)<0<M+(f): the neuron is neither always off nor always on over the box. The paper assumes it throughout (§1.3).

Formulation (6) (p. 6) consists of the points (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) with

y≥w⋅x+b,(6a)y≤∑i∈Iwi(xi−L˘i(1−z))+(b+∑i∉IwiU˘i)z∀I⊆supp⁡(w),(6b)(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0×{0,1}.(6c)\begin{aligned} &y\ge w\cdot x+b, &&\text{(6a)}\\ &y\le\sum_{i\in I}w_i\bigl(x_i-\breve L_i(1-z)\bigr)+\Bigl(b+\sum_{i\notin I}w_i\breve U_i\Bigr)z\quad\forall I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w), &&\text{(6b)}\\ &(x,y,z)\in[L,U]\times\mathbb R_{\ge0}\times\{0,1\}. &&\text{(6c)} \end{aligned}​y≥w⋅x+b,y≤i∈I∑​wi​(xi​−L˘i​(1−z))+(b+i∈/I∑​wi​U˘i​)z∀I⊆supp(w),(x,y,z)∈[L,U]×R≥0​×{0,1}.​​(6a)(6b)(6c)​

In Lean, form6 w b L U is this set, and relax6 w b L U is its LP relaxation (0≤z≤10\le z\le10≤z≤1 in place of z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}). The right-hand side of (6b) for the subset III is rhs6b w b L U I x z.

An inequality g≤0g\le0g≤0 is facet-defining for a set PPP when it holds on PPP, its face F=P∩{g=0}F=P\cap\{g=0\}F=P∩{g=0} is nonempty, and dim⁡F=dim⁡P−1\dim F=\dim P-1dimF=dimP−1, the dimension of a set being that of its affine hull. The paper uses this standard notion without defining it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 6)

Under L<UL<UL<U and strict activity, for every I⊆supp⁡(w)I\subseteq\operatorname{supp}(w)I⊆supp(w), the inequality (6b) for III is facet-defining for

P=conv⁡{(x,y,z):(x,y,z) satisfies (6a)–(6c)}.P=\operatorname{conv}\{(x,y,z) : (x,y,z)\text{ satisfies (6a)–(6c)}\}.P=conv{(x,y,z):(x,y,z) satisfies (6a)–(6c)}.

The page states the result as "Each inequality in (6b) is facet-defining", and adds right after the proof line: "We require the assumption of strict activity above, as introduced in Section 1.3."

Milestones (App. A.2, p. 15)

  1. For some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, the η+2\eta+2η+2 points p0=(L˘,0,0)p^0=(\breve L,0,0)p0=(L˘,0,0), p1=(U˘,f(U˘),1)p^1=(\breve U,f(\breve U),1)p1=(U˘,f(U˘),1), p~i=(L˘+εσiei,0,0)\tilde p^i=(\breve L+\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i,0,0)p~​i=(L˘+εσi​ei,0,0) for i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I, and p~i=(U˘−εσiei,f(U˘−εσiei),1)\tilde p^i=(\breve U-\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i,f(\breve U-\varepsilon\sigma_ie^i),1)p~​i=(U˘−εσi​ei,f(U˘−εσi​ei),1) for i∈Ii\in Ii∈I are feasible with respect to (6) and satisfy (6b) for III at equality; here σi=±1\sigma_i=\pm1σi​=±1 is the sign of wiw_iwi​ (with σi=1\sigma_i=1σi​=1 when wi=0w_i=0wi​=0).
  2. For every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 these η+2\eta+2η+2 points are affinely independent.

Significance

The result. Proposition 1 shows that (6) is ideal; Proposition 2 shows it cannot be made smaller: removing any single inequality (6b) produces a strictly weaker relaxation. Since the family has 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ members, this is what justifies the paper's practical recommendation to start from the big-MMM formulation and separate inequalities of (6b) on demand (Proposition 3, p. 7) rather than to search for a smaller ideal description in the same variables. The facet structure also gives the geometric picture the paper describes after Proposition 2: each facet is the convex combination of an (η−∣I∣)(\eta-|I|)(η−∣I∣)-dimensional face at z=0z=0z=0 and an ∣I∣|I|∣I∣-dimensional face at z=1z=1z=1.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, in a half-page appendix; it has not been machine-checked. The formalization adds two things. First, the proof is written for w≥0w\ge0w≥0 "without loss of generality by appropriately interchanging +++ and −-−"; the Lean statements are for every sign pattern, including zero weights. Second, the appendix exhibits η+2\eta+2η+2 affinely independent points on the face, which bounds the face dimension from below; the statement that the face has dimension exactly one less than the polyhedron also needs the polyhedron to be full-dimensional and the face to lie in a proper hyperplane, steps the extended abstract leaves implicit and a complete proof must supply.

Difficulty

The arithmetic in each step is elementary. The work lies in the bookkeeping: choosing a single ε\varepsilonε that keeps every perturbed point inside the box and on the correct side of f=0f=0f=0 (this is exactly where strict activity enters), checking the perturbed points against all 2∣supp⁡(w)∣2^{|\operatorname{supp}(w)|}2∣supp(w)∣ inequalities of (6b) and not only the one for III, and turning a row-reduction argument on an (η+1)×(η+2)(\eta+1)\times(\eta+2)(η+1)×(η+2) matrix into a statement about AffineIndependent and finrank of a vectorSpan in Lean. The natural shortcut, proving only that η+2\eta+2η+2 affinely independent tight points exist, is not Proposition 2: it says nothing about the dimension of the polyhedron itself.

Formalization scope

Inputs are Fin η → ℝ (indices 0,…,η−10,\dots,\eta-10,…,η−1 for the paper's 1,…,η1,\dots,\eta1,…,η); a point (x,y,z)(x,y,z)(x,y,z) is p : (Fin η → ℝ) × ℝ × ℝ with p.1 = x, p.2.1 = y, p.2.2 = z. M±(f)M^\pm(f)M±(f) are given by their closed forms w⋅U˘+bw\cdot\breve U+bw⋅U˘+b and w⋅L˘+bw\cdot\breve L+bw⋅L˘+b. In (6b), "i∉Ii\notin Ii∈/I" ranges over all indices outside III, zero weights included; III ranges over subsets of supp⁡(w)\operatorname{supp}(w)supp(w), as on the page.

Every goal and milestone keeps the standing assumptions of §1.3, Li<UiL_i<U_iLi​<Ui​ for all iii and strict activity, except the affine-independence milestone, which holds without them and is stated without them (a stronger statement). No other hypothesis is added. Strict activity excludes η=0\eta=0η=0, so no nonemptiness assumption on the index set is needed.

IsFacetDefining P g is the standard notion: validity, a nonempty face, and dim⁡F+1=dim⁡P\dim F+1=\dim PdimF+1=dimP with dimensions the finrank of the vectorSpan. The equation is written with +1+1+1 on the left so that no natural-number subtraction can make the empty set or a point a facet. The polyhedron is the convex hull of the points of (6), not the set form6 itself (which is not convex, since z∈{0,1}z\in\{0,1\}z∈{0,1}); by Proposition 1 it equals the LP relaxation relax6, but the statement does not depend on that.

The shared objects of this paper (the ReLU graph, L˘\breve LL˘, U˘\breve UU˘, M±M^\pmM±, support, strict activity, formulation (6), ideality) come from the shared definitions module ReluMIP.Ideal.Setting, common to the companion mission on Proposition 1; this mission's own definitions module adds form6, IsFacetDefining, the sign inward, and the indexed family facetPts of the η+2\eta+2η+2 points. The facet notion and the affine-independence argument are reusable for other facet proofs of polyhedra in product spaces. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of the full-dimensionality step are all welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, IPCO 2019, LNCS 11480, pp. 27–42; preprint arXiv:1811.08359v2, 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1811.08359v2
  • R. Anderson, J. Huchette, W. Ma, C. Tjandraatmadja, J. P. Vielma, Strong mixed-integer programming formulations for trained neural networks, Mathematical Programming 183 (2020), 3–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-020-01474-5
  • G. L. Nemhauser, L. A. Wolsey, Integer and Combinatorial Optimization, Wiley, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118627372
  • M. Conforti, G. Cornuéjols, G. Zambelli, Integer Programming, Springer, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-11008-0
  • J. P. Vielma, Mixed integer linear programming formulation techniques, SIAM Review 57 (2015), 3–57. https://doi.org/10.1137/130915303
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially Responsible Supply Chains II: A Stable Joint-Auditing Coalition Audits the Common Supplier and Shares Costs FairlyResearch Paper

Motivation

Brands that sell consumer goods are held responsible by the public for the labour and safety practices of their suppliers. After the 2013 Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh, about 200 clothing brands and retailers signed the Accord on Fire and Building Safety and inspect roughly 1,600 factories jointly; pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer and GSK audit their suppliers jointly through the Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Initiative (both examples from the paper, pp. 4 and 14). Two features of such supply bases matter for auditing. Competing brands often share a common supplier, so a scandal at that supplier hurts both of them. And brands compete downstream, so a scandal that hurts only a rival can help a brand.

Chen, Qi and Dawande (MSOM 2020; accepted manuscript SSRN 2889889) model two competing buyers with one common and two independent suppliers. Their Proposition 2 shows that, when each buyer audits on his own, competition drives the buyers away from the common supplier: in every equilibrium it is left unaudited. This mission formalizes their Proposition 3. It shows that a coalition that audits jointly, and splits the cost by a Shapley-value rule, does audit the common supplier and is stable. A companion mission (Supplier Centrality … I) covers Proposition 2.

Setting

Two buyers B1,B2B_1, B_2B1​,B2​ source from three suppliers: BiB_iBi​ from its independent supplier SiS_iSi​, and both from the common supplier ScS_cSc​. Each supplier is compliant with probability e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1). A non-compliant supplier that passes an audit of effort x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] (probability 1−x1-x1−x) is exposed in public with probability r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1]. An independent supplier audited with effort xxx therefore causes damage with probability λI(x)=r(1−e)(1−x)\lambda_I(x)=r(1-e)(1-x)λI​(x)=r(1−e)(1−x). The three suppliers offend independently.

If buyer BiB_iBi​ has ni∈{0,1,2}n_i\in\{0,1,2\}ni​∈{0,1,2} exposed suppliers, its demand intercept falls from α\alphaα to α−dM\alpha-d_Mα−dM​ (by dM>0d_M>0dM​>0 once, however many offend). Each exposed supplier also raises its unit input cost from www to w^≥w\hat w\ge ww^≥w. The buyers then play a Cournot game with differentiated products (substitution β∈(0,1]\beta\in(0,1]β∈(0,1]). Buyer B1B_1B1​'s equilibrium profit is π1b(n1,n2)=(q1∗)2\pi^b_1(n_1,n_2)=(q^*_1)^2π1b​(n1​,n2​)=(q1∗​)2, where

q1∗=2(A1−c1)−β(A2−c2)4−β2,Ai=α−dM1{ni≥1},ci=(2−ni)w+niw^.q^*_1=\frac{2(A_1-c_1)-\beta(A_2-c_2)}{4-\beta^2},\qquad A_i=\alpha-d_M\mathbf 1\{n_i\ge1\},\quad c_i=(2-n_i)w+n_i\hat w.q1∗​=4−β22(A1​−c1​)−β(A2​−c2​)​,Ai​=α−dM​1{ni​≥1},ci​=(2−ni​)w+ni​w^.

The aggregate ex post profit is πb(i dM,j dM)=π1b(i,j)+π2b(i,j)\pi^b(i\,d_M,j\,d_M)=\pi^b_1(i,j)+\pi^b_2(i,j)πb(idM​,jdM​)=π1b​(i,j)+π2b​(i,j). Auditing a supplier with effort xxx costs K1{x>0}+a2x2K\mathbf 1\{x>0\}+\tfrac a2x^2K1{x>0}+2a​x2.

Unilateral auditing. Each buyer audits at most one of his two suppliers. Πib\Pi^b_iΠib​ is buyer BiB_iBi​'s expected profit net of his own audit costs. An equilibrium is a pair of mutual best responses in which, by the paper's tie-breaking rule, a buyer who audits strictly prefers it to not auditing. The effort e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ of eq. (2) is a buyer's optimal effort on his own supplier when the rival does not audit.

Joint auditing. The coalition chooses efforts x=(ec1,ecc,ec2)∈[0,1]3x=(e_{c1},e_{cc},e_{c2})\in[0,1]^3x=(ec1​,ecc​,ec2​)∈[0,1]3 on S1,Sc,S2S_1,S_c,S_2S1​,Sc​,S2​, auditing at most two suppliers, and pays each audited supplier's cost once. The buyers still compete downstream. With Rib(x)R^b_i(x)Rib​(x) the buyers' expected profits excluding audit costs, the coalition's profit is

Πb(x)=R1b(x)+R2b(x)−∑j∈{1,c,2}[K1{ecj>0}+a2ecj2].\Pi^b(x)=R^b_1(x)+R^b_2(x)-\sum_{j\in\{1,c,2\}}\Big[K\mathbf 1\{e_{cj}>0\}+\tfrac a2e_{cj}^2\Big].Πb(x)=R1b​(x)+R2b​(x)−j∈{1,c,2}∑​[K1{ecj​>0}+2a​ecj2​].

The difference of the buyers' profits is ΔΠ=R1b−R2b\Delta\Pi=R^b_1-R^b_2ΔΠ=R1b​−R2b​. The cost shares are Γ1,2=12[total cost±ΔΠ]\Gamma_{1,2}=\tfrac12[\text{total cost}\pm\Delta\Pi]Γ1,2​=21​[total cost±ΔΠ] (eq. (3)). The analysis assumes the scenario

πb(0,0)≥πb(dM,0)≥πb(dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,dM)≥πb(2dM,2dM).\pi^b(0,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,0)\ge\pi^b(d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)\ge\pi^b(2d_M,2d_M).πb(0,0)≥πb(dM​,0)≥πb(dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,dM​)≥πb(2dM​,2dM​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3

There are thresholds KcL≤KcHK^L_c\le K^H_cKcL​≤KcH​ such that, for every K≥0K\ge0K≥0, an optimal joint plan

{audits S1 and Sc, ΔΠ>0,K<KcL,audits only Sc, ΔΠ=0,KcL≤K<KcH,audits nothing,K≥KcH.\begin{cases}\text{audits } S_1 \text{ and } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi>0, & K<K^L_c,\\ \text{audits only } S_c,\ \Delta\Pi=0, & K^L_c\le K<K^H_c,\\ \text{audits nothing}, & K\ge K^H_c.\end{cases}⎩⎨⎧​audits S1​ and Sc​, ΔΠ>0,audits only Sc​, ΔΠ=0,audits nothing,​K<KcL​,KcL​≤K<KcH​,K≥KcH​.​

The coalition is also stable. At an optimal plan its aggregate profit is at least the buyers' aggregate profit in any unilateral equilibrium. After paying Γi\Gamma_iΓi​, each buyer earns at least his profit in a symmetric unilateral equilibrium.

Milestones

The coalition's profit as a sum of unilateral profits (proof of Lemma OA9). Lemma OA9: ScS_cSc​ beats one independent supplier, and beats no audit for K<K^K<\hat KK<K^. Lemma OA10: ScS_cSc​ with S1S_1S1​ beats S1S_1S1​ with S2S_2S2​. Lemma OA11: S1S_1S1​ with ScS_cSc​ beats ScS_cSc​ alone for K<K~K<\tilde KK<K~. The fair shares (3). The case analysis with KcL=min⁡{K^+K~2,K~}K^L_c=\min\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\tilde K\}KcL​=min{2K^+K~​,K~} and KcH=max⁡{K^+K~2,K^}K^H_c=\max\{\frac{\hat K+\tilde K}2,\hat K\}KcH​=max{2K^+K~​,K^}. Stability.

Significance

The result separates two effects of downstream competition on responsible sourcing. Under unilateral auditing, a buyer gains nothing private from auditing the shared supplier: the reduction in risk accrues equally to his rival. The joint coalition removes this free-riding. The common supplier is audited whenever anything is, and the Shapley-type split (3) charges the buyer who also has his own supplier audited for the competitive advantage this gives him (Γ1>Γ2\Gamma_1>\Gamma_2Γ1​>Γ2​ exactly when ΔΠ>0\Delta\Pi>0ΔΠ>0). The paper's welfare comparison (Proposition 4) builds on this proposition and on Proposition 2.

The proof in the e-companion argues through four comparisons of candidate plans and short cost-sharing algebra. None of it is machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the model (in particular which costs the coalition pays and what "at most two suppliers" excludes) and checks each comparison. In one place it also corrects the printed claim: the per-firm stability argument is given only for the symmetric unilateral equilibrium, and it does not extend to the asymmetric one (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

All objects are explicit polynomials in the efforts. The difficulty is in the comparisons. Lemmas OA9 and OA10 compare different audit plans through the scenario ordering of aggregate ex post profits, an assumption on the stage-2 closed form that is not implied by the standing conditions. The obvious attempt, comparing first-order conditions, fails because the coalition's profit is discontinuous at zero effort (the fixed cost) and the feasible set is not convex: "at most two of three" is a union of faces of the cube. The thresholds K^\hat KK^, K~\tilde KK~ are differences of maxima, so the case analysis has to handle ties and the boundary K=KcHK=K^H_cK=KcH​ with weak inequalities. Stability needs the unilateral equilibria of Proposition 2, so the full goal reaches into the companion mission's game.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Params holds α,β,w,w^,dM,e,r,a\alpha,\beta,w,\hat w,d_M,e,r,aα,β,w,w^,dM​,e,r,a with β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1], w≤w^w\le\hat ww≤w^, dM>0d_M>0dM​>0, e∈(0,1)e\in(0,1)e∈(0,1), r∈(0,1]r\in(0,1]r∈(0,1], a>0a>0a>0 and the three positivity conditions of p. 8. Every statement adds β>0\beta>0β>0 (Sec. 4.3 continues the competing case) and the p. 13 scenario as five inequalities between piAgg values. Their arguments count exposed suppliers: πb(2dM,dM)\pi^b(2d_M,d_M)πb(2dM​,dM​) is a label, not a damage of 2dM2d_M2dM​.
  • Expected profits are 8-outcome expectations of the closed-form stage-2 profit. The coalition's profit charges each audited supplier once, and the common supplier's damage probability under a joint audit is r(1−e)(1−ecc)r(1-e)(1-e_{cc})r(1−e)(1−ecc​).
  • Thresholds K^,K~\hat K,\tilde KK^,K~ are the maxima at K=0K=0K=0 written as sSup over [0,1][0,1][0,1] and [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2. At K=0K=0K=0 the profit is a polynomial, so these suprema are attained.
  • "Yields the highest aggregate profit" is read as "some maximizer over the feasible plans has this pattern"; uniqueness is not claimed. ΔΠ\Delta\PiΔΠ is evaluated at that maximizer (its mirror image, which audits S2S_2S2​, has ΔΠ<0\Delta\Pi<0ΔΠ<0).
  • Cost shares use the total cost of the plan. For plans with ec2=0e_{c2}=0ec2​=0 they are the printed formulas (3).
  • Unilateral benchmark. The equilibrium includes the tie-breaking rule of p. 10, and the interior-effort assumption of p. 10 is encoded as e^I<1\hat e_I<1e^I​<1, with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ given by eq. (2).
  • Stability, corrected. Condition (b) of Sec. 4.3 (each firm earns more) is stated against symmetric unilateral equilibria only, the case the paper's proof treats. Against the asymmetric equilibrium, where one buyer audits with e^I\hat e_Ie^I​ and the other audits nothing, it fails. Take α=10\alpha=10α=10, β=1\beta=1β=1, w=1w=1w=1, w^=3\hat w=3w^=3, dM=12d_M=\tfrac12dM​=21​, e=110e=\tfrac1{10}e=101​, r=1r=1r=1, a=50a=50a=50, K=0.2K=0.2K=0.2: the coalition optimally audits nothing, yet the auditing buyer earns more unilaterally than half of the coalition's profit. Condition (a) is stated against every equilibrium. "Higher" is stated as ≥\ge≥.
  • The goal's thresholds are existential and come before ∀K\forall K∀K. Choosing KcL=KcHK^L_c=K^H_cKcL​=KcH​ does not trivialize it, because the three cases must cover every K≥0K\ge0K≥0. The milestone on part (2) fixes the thresholds explicitly.
  • The source is the authors' SSRN accepted manuscript. Main-text page numbers equal PDF pages, and e-companion page eckkk is PDF page 28+k28+k28+k.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Lemmas OA9–OA11, which are self-contained polynomial inequalities; existence of maximizers on the non-convex feasible set (upper semicontinuity); and the link to the unilateral equilibria needed for stability.

Selected references

  • F. Chen, A. Qi, M. Dawande, Supplier Centrality and Auditing Priority in Socially-Responsible Supply Chains, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2020; accepted manuscript, SSRN 2889889. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2889889
  • E. L. Plambeck, T. A. Taylor, Supplier evasion of a buyer's audit: Implications for motivating supplier social and environmental responsibility, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 18(2):184–197, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2015.0550
  • N. Singh, X. Vives, Price and quantity competition in a differentiated duopoly, RAND Journal of Economics 15(4):546–554, 1984. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555525
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 2: In Finite Horizon, Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Time Derivative of the Value Function ContinuousResearch Paper

Motivation

In an optimal stopping problem the value function VVV and the gain function GGG agree on the stopping set D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G}, and V>GV>GV>G on the continuation set CCC. The smooth fit principle says that, at the boundary ∂C\partial C∂C between them, VVV meets GGG with matching first derivatives. Smooth fit is one of the boundary conditions in the free-boundary problems that characterise optimal stopping boundaries. It is behind the integral equations for the early-exercise boundary of the American put and for many problems in sequential analysis and finance (Peskir & Shiryaev, 2006). On a finite horizon the value depends on the remaining time, and continuity of the time derivative ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the step that justifies the local time-space calculus applied to VVV (Peskir, 2005).

Before De Angelis & Peskir (2020) such continuity results were proved problem by problem, or under sign conditions that the main examples do not satisfy: G=0G=0G=0 on the stopping set and H<0H<0H<0 globally, which fails for the American put. Their paper gives two general results. Theorem 8 covers the space derivative, and Theorem 15, the subject of this mission, covers the time derivative on a finite horizon. Both are stated for a strong Markov process realised as a stochastic flow, and both rest on probabilistic regularity of the boundary.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and d=m+1≥1d=m+1\ge1d=m+1≥1. The process is the time-space process Xst,x=(t+s,Xsx)X^{t,x}_s=(t+s,X^x_s)Xst,x​=(t+s,Xsx​). Its first coordinate is time, and (Xsx)s≥0, x∈Rd−1(X^x_s)_{s\ge0,\,x\in\mathbb R^{d-1}}(Xsx​)s≥0,x∈Rd−1​ is a stochastic flow on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with a right-continuous filtration (Fs)(\mathcal F_s)(Fs​), adapted to it, with X0x=xX^x_0=xX0x​=x. Its paths are right-continuous with left limits, it is left-continuous over stopping times, and it is strong Markov. The flow is continuous in the space variable if, outside one null set, x↦Xsx(ω)x\mapsto X^x_s(\omega)x↦Xsx​(ω) is continuous for every sss.

Given continuous functions λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0, GGG and HHH of (t,x)(t,x)(t,x), write Λst,x=∫0sλ(t+u,Xux) du\Lambda^{t,x}_s=\int_0^s\lambda(t+u,X^x_u)\,duΛst,x​=∫0s​λ(t+u,Xux​)du. The value function is

V(t,x)=sup⁡0≤τ≤T−tE[e−Λτt,xG(t+τ,Xτx)+∫0τe−Λst,xH(t+s,Xsx) ds]V(t,x)=\sup_{0\le\tau\le T-t}\mathsf E\Big[e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_\tau}G(t+\tau,X^x_\tau)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda^{t,x}_s}H(t+s,X^x_s)\,ds\Big]V(t,x)=0≤τ≤T−tsup​E[e−Λτt,x​G(t+τ,Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λst,x​H(t+s,Xsx​)ds]

over stopping times τ\tauτ bounded by the remaining time T−tT-tT−t. The sets are C={V>G}C=\{V>G\}C={V>G} and D={V=G}D=\{V=G\}D={V=G} inside [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1, and ∂C=D∩C‾\partial C=D\cap\overline C∂C=D∩C. The problem is well posed if the expected payoffs are integrable and the first entry time τD\tau_DτD​ into DDD is optimal.

The first hitting time of a set AAA is σAt,x=inf⁡{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x∈A}\sigma^{t,x}_A=\inf\{s\in(0,T-t]:X^{t,x}_s\in A\}σAt,x​=inf{s∈(0,T−t]:Xst,x​∈A}. A point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if P(σAz=0)=1P(\sigma^z_A=0)=1P(σAz​=0)=1. The generator LX\mathbb L_XLX​ (2.14) acts in the space variable, with diffusion matrix σij\sigma_{ij}σij​, drift μi\mu_iμi​, killing rate λ\lambdaλ and jump measure ν\nuν. Its coefficient formula is tied to the flow by the right derivative at zero of the killed spatial semigroup applied to G(t,⋅)G(t,\cdot)G(t,⋅). The function H~=Gt+LXG+H\tilde H=G_t+\mathbb L_XG+HH~=Gt​+LX​G+H appears in the hypotheses.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 15, global form (p. 20)

Assume well-posedness, (5.9) (VVV continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 and C1C^1C1 on CCC), (5.10) (G∈C1,2G\in C^{1,2}G∈C1,2) and (5.11) (Lipschitz continuity of H~\tilde HH~ and λ\lambdaλ in ttt, uniformly in xxx), and a continuous flow. Assume the local conditions (5.12)–(5.13) and probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘ at every z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C. Then

∂tV exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.\partial_tV\ \text{exists and is continuous on }[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}.∂t​V exists and is continuous on [0,T]×Rd−1.

Milestones

  1. (5.17): along every sequence (tn,xn)∈C(t_n,x_n)\in C(tn​,xn​)∈C with (tn,xn)→z(t_n,x_n)\to z(tn​,xn​)→z, lim inf⁡nVt(tn,xn)≥Gt(z)\displaystyle\liminf_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\ge G_t(z)nliminf​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≥Gt​(z).
  2. (5.20): along the same sequences, lim sup⁡nVt(tn,xn)≤Gt(z)\displaystyle\limsup_{n}V_t(t_n,x_n)\le G_t(z)nlimsup​Vt​(tn​,xn​)≤Gt​(z).
  3. Theorem 15, (5.14): at a single regular z∈∂Cz\in\partial Cz∈∂C,
∂tV(z)=∂tG(z)andlim⁡C∋(t,x)→z∂tV(t,x)=∂tG(z).\partial_tV(z)=\partial_tG(z)\quad\text{and}\quad\lim_{C\ni(t,x)\to z}\partial_tV(t,x)=\partial_tG(z).∂t​V(z)=∂t​G(z)andC∋(t,x)→zlim​∂t​V(t,x)=∂t​G(z).

Significance

The result. Theorem 15 turns a probabilistic property of the boundary, which can be checked through sample-path arguments, into the analytic smooth-fit condition in time. Continuity of ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V across ∂C\partial C∂C is the hypothesis that the change-of-variable formula with local time on curves and surfaces requires. That formula yields the free-boundary integral equations for optimal stopping boundaries. The theorem needs no sign condition on GGG or HHH and no strong Feller property. The time-space process is never strong Feller, which is exactly why the earlier strong Feller route to boundary regularity does not apply here.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematics. As far as is known no part of it has been machine-checked. Mathlib has stopping times and conditional expectation, but no stochastic flows, no generators of jump diffusions and no optimal stopping in continuous time. A complete development formalizes the proof on pp. 20–23 together with the upper semicontinuity of hitting times of open sets (Lemma 4 and Corollary 6 of the paper, posed in the companion mission on the space derivative).

Difficulty

The infinite-horizon argument (Theorem 13, via Theorem 8) perturbs the starting point and reuses the optimal stopping time of the unperturbed problem. On a finite horizon this fails in the time variable. Shifting the start from tnt_ntn​ to tn+εnt_n+\varepsilon_ntn​+εn​ shortens the remaining horizon, so the stopping time optimal for V(tn,xn)V(t_n,x_n)V(tn​,xn​) is no longer admissible for V(tn+εn,xn)V(t_n+\varepsilon_n,x_n)V(tn​+εn​,xn​). A first-order comparison of payoffs therefore cannot be used. The proof truncates the stopping time and controls the truncated part, which is the role of the identity (5.12) and of the window [T−t−ε,T−t][T-t-\varepsilon,T-t][T−t−ε,T−t] in (5.13). The convergence τn→0\tau_n\to0τn​→0 of the optimal stopping times has to come from regularity of zzz for the interior D∘D^\circD∘ and continuity of the flow, not from the strong Feller property.

Formalization scope

  • Space Rd−1\mathbb R^{d-1}Rd−1 is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m) with d=m+1d=m+1d=m+1. Time is ℝ≥0. Points of the time-space domain are pairs in ℝ × EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), and [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1 is Set.Icc 0 T ×ˢ univ.
  • PxP_xPx​ and Ex\mathsf E_xEx​ are PPP and E\mathsf EE of the flow started at xxx. All stopping times are for one common right-continuous filtration and are finite valued. Admissible times for (t,x)(t,x)(t,x) satisfy τ≤T−t\tau\le T-tτ≤T−t.
  • Hitting and entry times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (WithTop ℝ≥0) with inf⁡∅=∞\inf\emptyset=\inftyinf∅=∞, and are capped by the horizon.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. Well-posedness carries integrability of every admissible payoff and optimality of a stopping time equal to τD\tau_DτD​ almost surely, so VVV is attained and is not a junk supremum.
  • ∂C:=D∩C‾\partial C:=D\cap\overline C∂C:=D∩C. "C∋(t,x)→zC\ni(t,x)\to zC∋(t,x)→z" is the filter NC(z)\mathcal N_C(z)NC​(z), and ∂tV\partial_tV∂t​V is the derivative of s↦V(s,x)s\mapsto V(s,x)s↦V(s,x) within [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The pointwise clause "continuous at zzz" means convergence along CCC; the global clause is ContinuousOn on [0,T]×Rd−1[0,T]\times\mathbb R^{d-1}[0,T]×Rd−1.
  • (5.13) is an integrable majorant valid simultaneously for all points of the window. The ball b(z,ε)b(z,\varepsilon)b(z,ε) is the max-metric ball, which is equivalent because ε\varepsilonε is existential. (5.12) includes integrability of both sides.
  • D∘D^\circD∘ is the interior in R×Rd−1\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^{d-1}R×Rd−1. No point with t=Tt=Tt=T is probabilistically regular, so the global hypothesis requires C‾\overline CC to avoid t=Tt=Tt=T. This is the paper's scope, not an addition.
  • The model is not specialized: any d≥1d\ge1d≥1, general λ\lambdaλ, jumps allowed, càdlàg paths, unbounded GGG, HHH and VVV. A formalization that takes Λ≡0\Lambda\equiv0Λ≡0, d=1d=1d=1, continuous paths, or the strong Feller property is a different theorem.

Contributions welcome: the hitting-time lemmas (upper semicontinuity of σD∘\sigma_{D^\circ}σD∘​ under a continuous flow), dominated-convergence lemmas for the truncated stopping times, and the two halves (5.17) and (5.20).

Selected references

  • T. De Angelis, G. Peskir, Global C¹ regularity of the value function in optimal stopping problems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020. Preprint arXiv:1812.04564v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.04564v2
  • G. Peskir, A. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0
  • G. Peskir, A change-of-variable formula with local time on curves, J. Theoret. Probab. 18, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10959-005-3517-6
  • R. M. Blumenthal, R. K. Getoor, Markov Processes and Potential Theory, Academic Press, 1968.
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems 1: Probabilistic Regularity of the Boundary Makes the Value Function Continuously DifferentiableResearch Paper

Why boundary regularity matters

An optimal stopping rule chooses when to end a stochastic process in order to collect a terminal reward, possibly after earning or paying a running reward. The resulting value function often solves a free-boundary problem: the state space splits into a region where stopping is optimal and one where continuing is better. Smoothness inside either region does not by itself say what happens where the regions meet. This mission concerns the global first spatial derivative of that value function at the optimal stopping boundary.

De Angelis and Peskir proved that a probabilistic condition on the boundary, together with regularity of the process as a spatial flow and explicit integrability bounds, gives continuous differentiability of the value function across the boundary. Their result applies to standard Markov processes with right-continuous paths and left limits, including jump processes; it is not restricted to diffusions or to a constant discount rate. The source is De Angelis and Peskir, arXiv:1812.04564v2, Theorem 8.

The stopping problem and its boundary

Let d≥1d\ge1d≥1, let E=RdE=\mathbb R^dE=Rd, and let XtxX_t^xXtx​ be a stochastic flow: the same probability space carries a path starting from every state x∈Ex\in Ex∈E. Time is nonnegative. One right-continuous filtration makes every path adapted and is used for every stopping rule. The process is strong Markov, has right-continuous paths with left limits, is left continuous over stopping times, and starts from X0x=xX_0^x=xX0x​=x. Expectations and probabilities written ExE_xEx​ and PxP_xPx​ in the paper are the expectation and probability of the flow XxX^xXx under one measure PPP.

The continuous data are a nonnegative discount rate λ:E→[0,∞)\lambda:E\to[0,\infty)λ:E→[0,∞), a terminal reward G:E→RG:E\to\mathbb RG:E→R, and a running reward H:E→RH:E\to\mathbb RH:E→R. The discount accumulated along the path from xxx is Λtx=∫0tλ(Xsx) ds\Lambda_t^x=\int_0^t\lambda(X_s^x)\,dsΛtx​=∫0t​λ(Xsx​)ds. For every finite-valued stopping time τ\tauτ of the common filtration, define

J(x,τ)=E ⁣[e−ΛτxG(Xτx)+∫0τe−ΛtxH(Xtx) dt],V(x)=sup⁡τJ(x,τ).J(x,\tau)=E\!\left[e^{-\Lambda_\tau^x}G(X_\tau^x)+\int_0^\tau e^{-\Lambda_t^x}H(X_t^x)\,dt\right], \qquad V(x)=\sup_\tau J(x,\tau).J(x,τ)=E[e−Λτx​G(Xτx​)+∫0τ​e−Λtx​H(Xtx​)dt],V(x)=τsup​J(x,τ).

This is the infinite-horizon problem (2.1). It is well posed here when all admissible payoffs are integrable and the first entry time into the stopping set is an almost surely finite optimal stopping time. These conditions ensure that VVV is a real, attained supremum rather than a default value of Lean's real supremum or integral. Define the stopping set D={x:V(x)=G(x)}D=\{x:V(x)=G(x)\}D={x:V(x)=G(x)}, the continuation set C={x:V(x)>G(x)}C=\{x:V(x)>G(x)\}C={x:V(x)>G(x)}, and the boundary relevant to the theorem as D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C. For a state set AAA, the first entry time is τAx=inf⁡{t≥0:Xtx∈A}\tau_A^x=\inf\{t\ge0:X_t^x\in A\}τAx​=inf{t≥0:Xtx​∈A} and the first strictly positive hitting time is σAx=inf⁡{t>0:Xtx∈A}\sigma_A^x=\inf\{t>0:X_t^x\in A\}σAx​=inf{t>0:Xtx​∈A}. Both may be infinite.

A boundary point zzz is probabilistically regular for AAA if Pz(σA=0)=1P_z(\sigma_A=0)=1Pz​(σA​=0)=1. It is Green regular for AAA when Px(τA≥ε)→0P_x(\tau_A\ge\varepsilon)\to0Px​(τA​≥ε)→0 as x→zx\to zx→z through CCC, for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. The paper obtains Green regularity by either strong Feller continuity with probabilistic regularity for DDD, or spatial continuity of the flow with probabilistic regularity for D∘D^\circD∘. Lemma 1 and Corollaries 2–3 give the first route; Lemma 4 and Corollaries 5–6 give the second. All six statements use an arbitrary closed DDD, as in Section 3 of the source. Source: §§2–3, pp. 3–11.

Formalization targets

The milestone results first establish the two boundary regularity routes. In particular, approaching zzz through CCC, the first route gives τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 in probability; the second gives τD∘xn→0\tau_{D^\circ}^{x_n}\to0τD∘xn​​→0 and τDxn→0\tau_D^{x_n}\to0τDxn​​→0 almost surely. Equations (4.16) and (4.19) then bound, respectively, the lower and upper limits of each coordinate derivative ∂iV(xn)\partial_iV(x_n)∂i​V(xn​) by ∂iG(z)\partial_iG(z)∂i​G(z). The pointwise part of Theorem 8 concludes

DV(z)=DG(z),lim⁡C∋x→zDV(x)=DG(z).D V(z)=D G(z),\qquad \lim_{C\ni x\to z}D V(x)=D G(z).DV(z)=DG(z),C∋x→zlim​DV(x)=DG(z).

The mission goal is the final sentence of Theorem 8. If the theorem's local hypotheses hold at every z∈D∩C‾z\in D\cap\overline Cz∈D∩C, then

V∈C1(Rd).V\in C^1(\mathbb R^d).V∈C1(Rd).

The hypotheses include the discounted generator representation (2.14) from the problem setup, continuity and interior C1C^1C1 regularity of VVV, global C1C^1C1 regularity of GGG, one positive Lipschitz constant for both HHH and λ\lambdaλ, a C1C^1C1 spatial flow, the four local bounds (4.4)–(4.7) with one radius at each boundary point, and one of the two probabilistic regularity alternatives. The goal retains all dimensions d≥1d\ge1d≥1, all nonnegative continuous discount rates, and the source's full class of standard Markov flows. Source: §2.5 and Theorem 8, pp. 7, 11–12.

What the result gives

The conclusion identifies the derivative of the value function on both sides of the stopping boundary. It strengthens a derivative match along a single direction or a chosen sequence into continuous differentiability on the whole state space. This is relevant to free-boundary formulations of optimal stopping, where interior regularity can be available from a Dirichlet or Poisson problem while boundary regularity remains the missing step. The authors describe that distinction in their discussion of smooth fit and global differentiability. Source: §2.5, p. 8.

The mathematical theorem is proved in the 2020 paper. In this mission, the definitions and statements compile as Lean declarations, while the theorem proofs remain to be formalized. A complete development would supply reusable arguments about hitting times, semicontinuity of hitting probabilities, stochastic flows, and limits of derivatives near a stopping boundary. Those components would also support the paper's finite-horizon spatial and temporal results.

The central difficulty

The value is a supremum over stopping rules. Differentiating the reward for a fixed stopping time does not automatically differentiate that supremum, because the optimal time depends on the initial state. Near the boundary, even continuity of the value does not control the duration of the optimal rule from neighboring states. The paper's probabilistic regularity conditions address that duration, while (4.4)–(4.7) provide the integrability needed to pass to derivative limits. A direct appeal to interior differentiability leaves the boundary itself untreated. Source: §§3–4.1, pp. 9–15.

Formalization scope

The state space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with d≥1d\ge1d≥1; Fin d indices are the paper's coordinates 1,…,d1,\ldots,d1,…,d shifted by one. Balls are open Euclidean balls. Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and the entry and hitting times live in R≥0∪{+∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{+\infty\}R≥0​∪{+∞} so an unattained hit has its intended value. The flow is the process; no separate family of measures PxP_xPx​ is introduced. One common filtration is used for all initial states and is right-continuous. Its finite stopping times are the full admissible class, not only hitting times.

The value uses Bochner expectations and real Lebesgue time integrals. Well-posedness records integrability for every admissible payoff and optimality and almost sure finiteness of τDx\tau_D^xτDx​. The generator clause acts on smooth functions in the domain of the discounted transition semigroup; it retains the paper's diffusion, drift, killing, and jump terms. The boundary is D∩C‾D\cap\overline CD∩C, and approach through continuation points is expressed by the within-set neighborhood filter. Pointwise continuous differentiability means a Fréchet derivative at zzz equal to DG(z)D G(z)DG(z) and convergence of DVD VDV along CCC; the goal uses global ContDiff. The local bounds retain all independently indexed starting states and coordinates. Their uncountable suprema are represented by integrable common majorants, with timewise measurable envelopes for the suprema inside time integrals. This convention excludes default integral values from nonmeasurable or nonintegrable expressions.

A formalization restricted to Brownian motion, one dimension, zero or constant discount, continuous paths, bounded rewards, or only one boundary regularity branch would state a different theorem. Contributions toward measurable hitting-time events, the two Section 3 regularity chains, the envelope bounds, and the derivative comparison are welcome.

Selected references

  • De Angelis, T., and Peskir, G., Global C¹ Regularity of the Value Function in Optimal Stopping Problems, Annals of Applied Probability 30(3), 2020. arXiv:1812.04564v2; DOI:10.1214/19-AAP1517.
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