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Linear algebraRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices III: The Matrix Chernoff Inequality for Sums of Independent Positive-Semidefinite Random MatricesResearch Paper

Motivation

The classical Chernoff bound controls the probability that a sum of independent, nonnegative, uniformly bounded random variables deviates from its mean, with exponentially small tails governed by the Kullback–Leibler divergence between two Bernoulli laws. Many problems in numerical linear algebra, graph sparsification, compressed sensing and randomized algorithms instead require control of a sum of independent random matrices: the smallest singular value of a random matrix with independent columns, the spectrum of a sampled Laplacian, or the conditioning of a random submatrix. For these, what matters is not a scalar sum but the extreme eigenvalues of a random positive-semidefinite matrix.

Ahlswede and Winter (2002) introduced a matrix version of the Laplace transform method and proved a matrix Chernoff bound for identically distributed summands. Tropp's paper (arXiv:1004.4389, Found. Comput. Math. 2012) replaced the Golden–Thompson step of their argument with Lieb's concavity theorem, obtaining a master tail bound for independent sums, and derived from it matrix Chernoff, Bernstein and Azuma inequalities that require no identical distribution and lose only a dimensional factor. This mission formalizes the matrix Chernoff inequalities of §5 of that paper.

Timeline:

  • 2002, Ahlswede–Winter: matrix Laplace transform method; matrix Chernoff bound for i.i.d. summands via Golden–Thompson.
  • 2010, Oliveira: a variant of the Laplace transform method used in Proposition 3.1 of the paper.
  • 2010–2012, Tropp: master tail bound via Lieb's theorem (Theorem 3.6), and Theorem 5.1 / Corollary 5.2 for independent, non-identical psd summands.

Setting

All matrices are d×dd\times dd×d complex matrices with d≥1d\ge1d≥1. For a self-adjoint (Hermitian) matrix AAA, λmax⁡(A)\lambda_{\max}(A)λmax​(A) and λmin⁡(A)\lambda_{\min}(A)λmin​(A) are its algebraically largest and smallest eigenvalues. The semidefinite order A≼BA\preccurlyeq BA≼B means that B−AB-AB−A is positive semidefinite (psd). Functions of a self-adjoint matrix are defined spectrally: if A=QΛQ∗A = Q\Lambda Q^*A=QΛQ∗ then f(A)=Qf(Λ)Q∗f(A) = Qf(\Lambda)Q^*f(A)=Qf(Λ)Q∗; this gives the matrix exponential eAe^AeA and, on positive-definite matrices, the matrix logarithm log⁡A\log AlogA.

A random matrix is a measurable map X:Ω→Cd×dX:\Omega\to\mathbb C^{d\times d}X:Ω→Cd×d on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P), and its expectation EX\mathbb E XEX is taken entrywise. The matrix moment generating function of XXX is θ↦E eθX\theta\mapsto\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X}θ↦EeθX.

The objects of the mission are independent random Hermitian matrices X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ that are almost surely psd contractions: Xk≽0X_k\succcurlyeq0Xk​≽0 and λmax⁡(Xk)≤1\lambda_{\max}(X_k)\le1λmax​(Xk​)≤1. Their average expectation has extreme eigenvalues

μˉmin⁡=λmin⁡(1n∑k=1nEXk),μˉmax⁡=λmax⁡(1n∑k=1nEXk),\bar\mu_{\min} = \lambda_{\min}\Big(\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\mathbb E X_k\Big),\qquad \bar\mu_{\max}=\lambda_{\max}\Big(\frac1n\sum_{k=1}^n\mathbb E X_k\Big),μˉ​min​=λmin​(n1​k=1∑n​EXk​),μˉ​max​=λmax​(n1​k=1∑n​EXk​),

and the binary information divergence is

D(a ∥ u)=a(log⁡a−log⁡u)+(1−a)(log⁡(1−a)−log⁡(1−u)),a,u∈[0,1].\mathrm D(a\,\|\,u) = a(\log a-\log u)+(1-a)(\log(1-a)-\log(1-u)),\qquad a,u\in[0,1].D(a∥u)=a(loga−logu)+(1−a)(log(1−a)−log(1−u)),a,u∈[0,1].

In Lean these are lambdaMax, lambdaMin, mexp, mlog, mean and binDiv in the namespace MatrixTail.Chernoff.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (Matrix Chernoff I)

P{λmin⁡(1n∑kXk)≤α}≤d e−n D(α∥μˉmin⁡)(0≤α≤μˉmin⁡),\mathbb P\Big\{\lambda_{\min}\Big(\tfrac1n\textstyle\sum_k X_k\Big)\le\alpha\Big\}\le d\,e^{-n\,\mathrm D(\alpha\|\bar\mu_{\min})}\quad(0\le\alpha\le\bar\mu_{\min}),P{λmin​(n1​∑k​Xk​)≤α}≤de−nD(α∥μˉ​min​)(0≤α≤μˉ​min​), P{λmax⁡(1n∑kXk)≥α}≤d e−n D(α∥μˉmax⁡)(μˉmax⁡≤α≤1).\mathbb P\Big\{\lambda_{\max}\Big(\tfrac1n\textstyle\sum_k X_k\Big)\ge\alpha\Big\}\le d\,e^{-n\,\mathrm D(\alpha\|\bar\mu_{\max})}\quad(\bar\mu_{\max}\le\alpha\le1).P{λmax​(n1​∑k​Xk​)≥α}≤de−nD(α∥μˉ​max​)(μˉ​max​≤α≤1).

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.6 (master tail bound): for every θ>0\theta>0θ>0 at which the mgfs exist, P{λmax⁡(∑kXk)≥t}≤e−θttr⁡exp⁡(∑klog⁡E eθXk)\mathbb P\{\lambda_{\max}(\sum_kX_k)\ge t\}\le e^{-\theta t}\operatorname{tr}\exp(\sum_k\log\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X_k})P{λmax​(∑k​Xk​)≥t}≤e−θttrexp(∑k​logEeθXk​).
  2. Corollary 3.9: the same with the mgfs under one logarithm, d⋅exp⁡(−θt+nlog⁡λmax⁡(1n∑kE eθXk))d\cdot\exp(-\theta t+n\log\lambda_{\max}(\frac1n\sum_k\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X_k}))d⋅exp(−θt+nlogλmax​(n1​∑k​EeθXk​)).
  3. Lemma 5.8 (Chernoff mgf): E eθX≼I+(eθ−1)EX\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X}\preccurlyeq\mathbf I+(e^\theta-1)\mathbb E XEeθX≼I+(eθ−1)EX for a random psd contraction XXX.
  4. Display (5.1): P{λmax⁡(∑kXk)≥t}≤dexp⁡(−θt+nlog⁡(1+(eθ−1)μˉmax⁡))\mathbb P\{\lambda_{\max}(\sum_kX_k)\ge t\}\le d\exp(-\theta t+n\log(1+(e^\theta-1)\bar\mu_{\max}))P{λmax​(∑k​Xk​)≥t}≤dexp(−θt+nlog(1+(eθ−1)μˉ​max​)).
  5. Display (5.2): P{λmin⁡(∑kXk)≤t}≤dexp⁡(θt+nlog⁡(1−(1−e−θ)μˉmin⁡))\mathbb P\{\lambda_{\min}(\sum_kX_k)\le t\}\le d\exp(\theta t+n\log(1-(1-e^{-\theta})\bar\mu_{\min}))P{λmin​(∑k​Xk​)≤t}≤dexp(θt+nlog(1−(1−e−θ)μˉ​min​)).

Further statement

Corollary 5.2 (Matrix Chernoff II), the form usually quoted: with λmax⁡(Xk)≤R\lambda_{\max}(X_k)\le Rλmax​(Xk​)≤R, μmin⁡,μmax⁡\mu_{\min},\mu_{\max}μmin​,μmax​ the extreme eigenvalues of ∑kEXk\sum_k\mathbb E X_k∑k​EXk​,

P{λmin⁡(∑kXk)≤(1−δ)μmin⁡}≤d[e−δ(1−δ)1−δ]μmin⁡/R,P{λmax⁡(∑kXk)≥(1+δ)μmax⁡}≤d[eδ(1+δ)1+δ]μmax⁡/R.\mathbb P\{\lambda_{\min}(\textstyle\sum_kX_k)\le(1-\delta)\mu_{\min}\}\le d\Big[\tfrac{e^{-\delta}}{(1-\delta)^{1-\delta}}\Big]^{\mu_{\min}/R},\quad \mathbb P\{\lambda_{\max}(\textstyle\sum_kX_k)\ge(1+\delta)\mu_{\max}\}\le d\Big[\tfrac{e^{\delta}}{(1+\delta)^{1+\delta}}\Big]^{\mu_{\max}/R}.P{λmin​(∑k​Xk​)≤(1−δ)μmin​}≤d[(1−δ)1−δe−δ​]μmin​/R,P{λmax​(∑k​Xk​)≥(1+δ)μmax​}≤d[(1+δ)1+δeδ​]μmax​/R.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 matches the strongest scalar Chernoff bound for independent, non-identical Bernoulli trials, up to the factor ddd, which cannot be removed (coupon collector, Remark 5.6). Corollary 5.2 is the version used in applications: lower bounds on the smallest singular value of matrices with independent columns (Remark 5.4), spectral sparsification, column subset selection and random sampling of matrices. Remark 5.5 derives from it the expectation bound Eλmax⁡(∑kXk)≤Cmax⁡{μmax⁡,Rlog⁡d}\mathbb E\lambda_{\max}(\sum_kX_k)\le C\max\{\mu_{\max},R\log d\}Eλmax​(∑k​Xk​)≤Cmax{μmax​,Rlogd}.

The results are proved in the paper, from Lieb's concavity theorem. As far as is known, no machine-checked proof of a matrix Chernoff inequality exists in Lean or Mathlib. A formalization yields a reusable statement for the random-matrix and randomized-numerical-linear-algebra literature, and the milestones (the master bound, the single-logarithm corollary and the semidefinite mgf bound) are reusable beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The scalar Chernoff argument uses E eθ(X+Y)=E eθX E eθY\mathbb E\,e^{\theta(X+Y)}=\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X}\,\mathbb E\,e^{\theta Y}Eeθ(X+Y)=EeθXEeθY for independent X,YX,YX,Y. For matrices eA+B≠eAeBe^{A+B}\neq e^Ae^BeA+B=eAeB unless AAA and BBB commute, so the trace of the mgf of a sum does not factor. The Golden–Thompson inequality handles two summands but does not extend to three, which is why the Ahlswede–Winter bound needed identical distributions. The master bound (Theorem 3.6) requires Lieb's concavity theorem, which has no counterpart in Mathlib. Corollary 3.9 in addition needs operator concavity of the matrix logarithm, and Lemma 5.8 needs the transfer of a scalar inequality to the semidefinite order through the spectral calculus.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin d) (Fin d) ℂ with [NeZero d]; the semidefinite order is Mathlib's MatrixOrder (A ≤ B ↔ (B − A).PosSemidef). exp and log of a matrix are the continuous functional calculus cfc. λmax⁡\lambda_{\max}λmax​, λmin⁡\lambda_{\min}λmin​ are sSup/sInf of the real spectrum. Expectation is entrywise. Random matrices are measurable with respect to the Borel σ-algebra on matrices, independence is iIndepFun, and the probability measure is a probability measure. The summands are Hermitian for every outcome; "psd" and "λmax⁡≤1\lambda_{\max}\le1λmax​≤1" hold almost surely. The sequence has n≥1n\ge1n≥1 terms wherever an average 1/n1/n1/n appears. An infimum over θ>0\theta>0θ>0 is stated as a bound for every admissible θ>0\theta>0θ>0; integrability of eθXke^{\theta X_k}eθXk​ is a hypothesis only in Theorem 3.6 and Corollary 3.9, where the summands are unbounded. In Lean log⁡0=0\log 0=0log0=0, so at the boundary values μˉ∈{0,1}\bar\mu\in\{0,1\}μˉ​∈{0,1} the divergence is finite where the paper's is +∞+\infty+∞; this only weakens the stated bound.

A formalization in which d=0d=0d=0 (empty spectrum, λmax⁡=0\lambda_{\max}=0λmax​=0) or n=0n=0n=0 (the average 1/0=01/0=01/0=0) were allowed, or in which the range of α\alphaα were dropped, would state a different, partly false theorem; these cases are excluded.

A complete development needs Lieb's theorem or another route to the master bound, operator concavity of the logarithm, the spectral mapping theorem and the transfer rule for the functional calculus on Hermitian matrices, monotonicity of the trace exponential, and the scalar optimization in θ\thetaθ. Contributions of any of these as stand-alone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Tropp, User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices, arXiv:1004.4389v7 (2011); Found. Comput. Math. 12 (2012) 389–434. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.4389, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-011-9099-z
  • R. Ahlswede, A. Winter, Strong converse for identification via quantum channels, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 48 (2002) 569–579. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.985947
  • E. H. Lieb, Convex trace functions and the Wigner–Yanase–Dyson conjecture, Adv. Math. 11 (1973) 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-8708(73)90011-X
  • R. I. Oliveira, Sums of random Hermitian matrices and an inequality by Rudelson, Electron. Commun. Probab. 15 (2010) 203–212. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.3821
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Linear algebraRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices II: Matrix Gaussian and Rademacher Series Have Subgaussian Tails with Variance Parameter ‖Σ A_k²‖Research Paper

Motivation

A matrix Gaussian series ∑kγkAk\sum_k \gamma_k A_k∑k​γk​Ak​, a sum of fixed self-adjoint matrices each multiplied by an independent standard normal variable, is the simplest sum of independent random matrices. It already appears in the analysis of random designs, in compressed sensing, in randomized numerical linear algebra and in quantum information, wherever one needs to know how large the spectrum of a random linear combination of matrices can be. Its Rademacher analogue ∑kεkAk\sum_k \varepsilon_k A_k∑k​εk​Ak​, with random signs, plays the same role in symmetrization arguments.

For real coefficients aka_kak​ the answer is classical: ∑kγkak\sum_k \gamma_k a_k∑k​γk​ak​ is normal with variance ∑kak2\sum_k a_k^2∑k​ak2​, so its upper tail is at most e−t2/2σ2e^{-t^2/2\sigma^2}e−t2/2σ2. Tropp's paper (arXiv:1004.4389v7) shows that the same bound holds for the largest eigenvalue of a matrix series, with an explicit dimensional factor and with the variance parameter ∥∑kAk2∥\|\sum_k A_k^2\|∥∑k​Ak2​∥.

Timeline. Noncommutative Khintchine inequalities (Lust-Piquard 1986; Lust-Piquard and Pisier 1991) control the moments of matrix Rademacher and Gaussian series and imply tail bounds of this type. Ahlswede and Winter (2002, arXiv:quant-ph/0012127) introduced the matrix Laplace transform method, whose bounds depend on the sum of the norms ∑k∥Ak2∥\sum_k\|A_k^2\|∑k​∥Ak2​∥. Oliveira (2010, arXiv:1004.3821) obtained bounds of the same form as Theorem 4.1. Tropp (2012) derived the result from a master inequality built on Lieb's concavity theorem (1973), which produces the norm of the sum, ∥∑kAk2∥\|\sum_k A_k^2\|∥∑k​Ak2​∥, as variance parameter. The paper itself notes that Theorem 4.1 and Corollary 4.2 are not new results; the contribution is the route through the master bound.

Setting

Fix a dimension d≥1d\ge1d≥1. Matrices are d×dd\times dd×d complex arrays; a matrix is self-adjoint if it equals its conjugate transpose. For a self-adjoint AAA, λmax⁡(A)\lambda_{\max}(A)λmax​(A) is its largest eigenvalue, and ∥A∥\|A\|∥A∥ is the spectral norm, the operator norm on Cd\mathbb C^dCd with the Euclidean norm. Functions of a self-adjoint matrix are defined through its eigen-decomposition: eAe^AeA, log⁡A\log AlogA (for positive-definite AAA), cosh⁡A\cosh AcoshA. The semidefinite order A≼HA\preccurlyeq HA≼H means that H−AH-AH−A is positive semidefinite.

A random matrix is a measurable map from a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) into the d×dd\times dd×d complex matrices; its expectation EX\mathbb E XEX is taken entry by entry. A Rademacher variable takes the values ±1\pm1±1 with probability 1/21/21/2 each; a standard normal variable has law N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1).

The data of the mission are fixed self-adjoint matrices A1,…,AnA_1,\dots,A_nA1​,…,An​ and independent scalar variables ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​, all standard normal or all Rademacher. The variance parameter is

σ2:=∥∑kAk2∥.\sigma^2 := \Big\|\sum_k A_k^2\Big\|.σ2:=​k∑​Ak2​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 14)

For all t≥0t\ge0t≥0,

P{λmax⁡(∑kξkAk)≥t}≤d e−t2/2σ2,P{∥∑kξkAk∥≥t}≤2d e−t2/2σ2.\mathbb P\Big\{\lambda_{\max}\Big(\sum_k\xi_kA_k\Big)\ge t\Big\}\le d\,e^{-t^2/2\sigma^2},\qquad \mathbb P\Big\{\Big\|\sum_k\xi_kA_k\Big\|\ge t\Big\}\le 2d\,e^{-t^2/2\sigma^2}.P{λmax​(k∑​ξk​Ak​)≥t}≤de−t2/2σ2,P{​k∑​ξk​Ak​​≥t}≤2de−t2/2σ2.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 3.6 (master tail bound, p. 12): for independent random self-adjoint XkX_kXk​ and every ttt,
P{λmax⁡(∑kXk)≥t}≤inf⁡θ>0e−θttr⁡exp⁡(∑klog⁡EeθXk).\mathbb P\Big\{\lambda_{\max}\Big(\sum_kX_k\Big)\ge t\Big\}\le\inf_{\theta>0}e^{-\theta t}\operatorname{tr}\exp\Big(\sum_k\log\mathbb Ee^{\theta X_k}\Big).P{λmax​(k∑​Xk​)≥t}≤θ>0inf​e−θttrexp(k∑​logEeθXk​).
  1. Corollary 3.7 (p. 12): if EeθXk≼eg(θ)Ak\mathbb Ee^{\theta X_k}\preccurlyeq e^{g(\theta)A_k}EeθXk​≼eg(θ)Ak​ with g≥0g\ge0g≥0, then the tail is at most dinf⁡θ>0e−θt+g(θ)ρd\inf_{\theta>0}e^{-\theta t+g(\theta)\rho}dinfθ>0​e−θt+g(θ)ρ with ρ=λmax⁡(∑kAk)\rho=\lambda_{\max}(\sum_kA_k)ρ=λmax​(∑k​Ak​).
  2. Display (2.4) (p. 8): cosh⁡(A)≼eA2/2\cosh(A)\preccurlyeq e^{A^2/2}cosh(A)≼eA2/2 for every self-adjoint AAA.
  3. Lemma 4.3 (p. 15): EeεθA≼eθ2A2/2\mathbb Ee^{\varepsilon\theta A}\preccurlyeq e^{\theta^2A^2/2}EeεθA≼eθ2A2/2 for Rademacher ε\varepsilonε and EeγθA=eθ2A2/2\mathbb Ee^{\gamma\theta A}=e^{\theta^2A^2/2}EeγθA=eθ2A2/2 for standard normal γ\gammaγ.

Further item: Corollary 4.2 (p. 15)

For fixed d1×d2d_1\times d_2d1​×d2​ matrices BkB_kBk​ and σ2=max⁡{∥∑kBkBk∗∥,∥∑kBk∗Bk∥}\sigma^2=\max\{\|\sum_kB_kB_k^*\|,\|\sum_kB_k^*B_k\|\}σ2=max{∥∑k​Bk​Bk∗​∥,∥∑k​Bk∗​Bk​∥},

P{∥∑kξkBk∥≥t}≤(d1+d2) e−t2/2σ2.\mathbb P\Big\{\Big\|\sum_k\xi_kB_k\Big\|\ge t\Big\}\le(d_1+d_2)\,e^{-t^2/2\sigma^2}.P{​k∑​ξk​Bk​​≥t}≤(d1​+d2​)e−t2/2σ2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.1 is the template for every inequality in the paper: a scalar tail bound carried over to matrices at the cost of a factor ddd, with a variance parameter that is the norm of a sum rather than a sum of norms. The difference matters: ∑k∥Ak2∥\sum_k\|A_k^2\|∑k​∥Ak2​∥ can exceed ∥∑kAk2∥\|\sum_kA_k^2\|∥∑k​Ak2​∥ by a factor of ddd, and §4 of the paper shows that both the variance parameter and the dimensional factor in (4.3) are needed in general. Corollary 4.2 transfers the bound to the largest singular value of a rectangular series, which covers Gaussian matrices with nonuniform variances (§4.3).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; the work here is to formalize that proof. The milestones are reusable beyond this mission: Theorem 3.6 and Corollary 3.7 are the common entry point of the Chernoff, Bernstein and Azuma missions of this series, and the Rademacher half of Lemma 4.3 is used again in the matrix Azuma mission. No machine-checked proof of these matrix inequalities was found in Mathlib or on the platform when this mission was drafted.

Difficulty

The scalar argument bounds Eeθ∑kXk\mathbb E e^{\theta\sum_k X_k}Eeθ∑k​Xk​ by the product of the individual mgfs, using ea+b=eaebe^{a+b}=e^ae^bea+b=eaeb. For matrices this identity fails when the summands do not commute, and the trace inequality that replaces it for two matrices (Golden–Thompson) has no analogue for three or more. Controlling the trace mgf of a sum of many noncommuting independent matrices therefore requires a genuinely matrix-analytic input with no scalar counterpart; the naive product bound is not available. A second difficulty is infrastructural: matrix functions, the semidefinite order and expectations of random matrices must be combined in a single setting.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin d) (Fin d) ℂ with [NeZero d]; self-adjointness is IsHermitian; eAe^AeA, log⁡A\log AlogA, cosh⁡A\cosh AcoshA are Mathlib's continuous functional calculus cfc; ≼\preccurlyeq≼ is Mathlib's Loewner order under MatrixOrder; λmax⁡\lambda_{\max}λmax​ is the supremum of the real spectrum; ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the operator norm on ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​. Expectation is entrywise, and the paper's standing regularity assumption is made explicit as entrywise integrability of every matrix whose expectation is taken. The infimum over θ>0\theta>0θ>0 is stated pointwise: the bound is asserted for every θ>0\theta>0θ>0 at which the mgfs exist, which is equivalent to the infimum form. Independence is iIndepFun of the scalar variables, and "Gaussian or Rademacher" is the disjunction of two hypotheses, never a mixture of laws.

The variance parameter is the norm of the sum ∥∑kAk2∥\|\sum_kA_k^2\|∥∑k​Ak2​∥; a formalization with ∑k∥Ak2∥\sum_k\|A_k^2\|∑k​∥Ak2​∥, with a constant different from 1/21/21/2, or with the dimensional factor omitted is a different theorem. At σ2=0\sigma^2=0σ2=0, Lean's division by zero makes the bound the trivial ddd; this is the only degenerate case and it is valid.

The development needs: the spectral calculus for Hermitian matrices, monotonicity of the trace exponential, operator monotonicity of the matrix logarithm, Lieb's theorem, and moments of the Gaussian. These are reusable well beyond this paper; proofs of the milestones, of supporting matrix-analysis lemmas, and alternative routes (for instance through noncommutative Khintchine inequalities) are all welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Tropp, User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices, Found. Comput. Math. 12 (2012) 389–434; cited from arXiv:1004.4389v7. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.4389, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-011-9099-z
  • R. Ahlswede and A. Winter, Strong converse for identification via quantum channels, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 48 (2002) 569–579. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0012127
  • R. I. Oliveira, Sums of random Hermitian matrices and an inequality by Rudelson, Electron. Commun. Probab. 15 (2010) 203–212. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.3821
  • E. H. Lieb, Convex trace functions and the Wigner–Yanase–Dyson conjecture, Adv. Math. 11 (1973) 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-8708(73)90011-X
  • F. Lust-Piquard and G. Pisier, Non commutative Khintchine and Paley inequalities, Ark. Mat. 29 (1991) 241–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02384340
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Machine LearningStatisticsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy 1: The Net Mechanism Is (α, δ)-Useful for Every Class of Counting Queries with Error Governed by Its VC-DimensionResearch Paper

Motivation

A data curator holds a database of nnn individual records and wants to publish something from which many statistics can be computed, while guaranteeing differential privacy: no single record should noticeably change what is published (Dwork, McSherry, Nissim, Smith 2006). Interactive mechanisms answer queries one at a time and add noise to each answer, so their accuracy degrades as more queries are asked; Dinur and Nissim showed that answering too many arbitrary queries accurately reveals the database (Dinur, Nissim 2003).

Blum, Ligett and Roth asked a different question: can a curator release, once and non-interactively, a synthetic database that is accurate simultaneously for every query of a large, structured class, while remaining differentially private? Their answer (arXiv:1109.2229; JACM 60(2), 2013; conference version STOC 2008) is yes for every class of counting queries over a discretized universe, with accuracy governed by the class's VC-dimension rather than its cardinality. The mechanism it introduces, the Net mechanism, became the starting point of the literature on private query release (SmallDB, private multiplicative weights, and the lower bounds that followed).

Setting

Fix a finite data universe XXX (for instance X={0,1}kX=\{0,1\}^kX={0,1}k). The curator's input is an nnn-tuple z=(z1,…,zn)∈Xnz=(z_1,\dots,z_n)\in X^nz=(z1​,…,zn​)∈Xn, read as a multiset of records. Two inputs are neighbouring if they differ in exactly one entry.

A database of arbitrary size D∈X∗D\in X^*D∈X∗ is a finite nonempty multiset of elements of XXX. For a predicate φ:X→{0,1}\varphi:X\to\{0,1\}φ:X→{0,1} the counting query is

Qφ(D)=1∣D∣∑x∈Dφ(x),Q_\varphi(D)=\frac{1}{|D|}\sum_{x\in D}\varphi(x),Qφ​(D)=∣D∣1​x∈D∑​φ(x),

the fraction of records satisfying φ\varphiφ. A class CCC of predicates is identified with its class of counting queries, and its VC-dimension VCDIM(C)\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)VCDIM(C) is the size of the largest set of points that CCC shatters.

A randomized mechanism AAA, whose output on input zzz is a random database D^∈X∗\hat D\in X^*D^∈X∗, is ε\varepsilonε-differentially private if Pr⁡[A(z)∈S]≤eεPr⁡[A(z′)∈S]\Pr[A(z)\in S]\le e^{\varepsilon}\Pr[A(z')\in S]Pr[A(z)∈S]≤eεPr[A(z′)∈S] for all neighbouring z,z′z,z'z,z′ and all sets SSS of outputs. It is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for CCC if for every input zzz, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, ∣Qφ(D^)−Qφ(z)∣≤α|Q_\varphi(\hat D)-Q_\varphi(z)|\le\alpha∣Qφ​(D^)−Qφ​(z)∣≤α for every φ∈C\varphi\in Cφ∈C.

The global sensitivity of f:Xn→Rf:X^n\to\mathbb Rf:Xn→R is GSf=max⁡∣f(z)−f(z′)∣GS_f=\max|f(z)-f(z')|GSf​=max∣f(z)−f(z′)∣ over neighbouring pairs. An α\alphaα-net for CCC is a finite set N⊆X∗N\subseteq X^*N⊆X∗ such that every D∈X∗D\in X^*D∈X∗ has some D′∈ND'\in ND′∈N with ∣Qφ(D)−Qφ(D′)∣≤α|Q_\varphi(D)-Q_\varphi(D')|\le\alpha∣Qφ​(D)−Qφ​(D′)∣≤α for all φ∈C\varphi\in Cφ∈C; Nα(C)N_\alpha(C)Nα​(C) denotes a net of minimum size.

The exponential mechanism with quality score q:Xn×R→Rq:X^n\times R\to\mathbb Rq:Xn×R→R over a finite range RRR outputs rrr with probability proportional to exp⁡(εq(z,r)/(2GSq))\exp(\varepsilon q(z,r)/(2GS_q))exp(εq(z,r)/(2GSq​)). The Net mechanism is the exponential mechanism over R=Nα(C)R=N_\alpha(C)R=Nα​(C) with score q(z,D′)=−max⁡φ∈C∣Qφ(z)−Qφ(D′)∣q(z,D')=-\max_{\varphi\in C}|Q_\varphi(z)-Q_\varphi(D')|q(z,D′)=−maxφ∈C​∣Qφ​(z)−Qφ​(D′)∣.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.10

There is an absolute constant c>0c>0c>0 such that, for every finite XXX, d=VCDIM(C)≥1d=\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)\ge1d=VCDIM(C)≥1, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, 0<δ≤10<\delta\le10<δ≤1, 0<α≤120<\alpha\le\tfrac120<α≤21​, whenever

α ≥ cεα2n(dlog⁡∣X∣log⁡1α+log⁡1δ),\alpha\ \ge\ \frac{c}{\varepsilon\alpha^2 n}\Big(d\log|X|\log\frac1\alpha+\log\frac1\delta\Big),α ≥ εα2nc​(dlog∣X∣logα1​+logδ1​),

a minimum α2\tfrac\alpha22α​-net exists and the Net mechanism run on any minimum α2\tfrac\alpha22α​-net is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for CCC. The constant is left unspecified, as in the paper; the goal asserts the shape of the bound, not a value of ccc.

Milestones

  1. Observation 2.4: GSQφ≤1/nGS_{Q_\varphi}\le 1/nGSQφ​​≤1/n.
  2. Theorem 3.2 and Property 3.3: the exponential mechanism, hence the Net mechanism, is ε\varepsilonε-differentially private.
  3. Property 3.4: for any query class with sensitivities at most Δ\DeltaΔ, the Net mechanism is (2α,δ)(2\alpha,\delta)(2α,δ)-useful once α≥2Δεlog⁡∣Nα(C)∣δ\alpha\ge\frac{2\Delta}{\varepsilon}\log\frac{|N_\alpha(C)|}{\delta}α≥ε2Δ​logδ∣Nα​(C)∣​.
  4. Corollary 3.5: for counting queries, (2α,δ)(2\alpha,\delta)(2α,δ)-useful once α≥2εnlog⁡∣Nα(C)∣δ\alpha\ge\frac{2}{\varepsilon n}\log\frac{|N_\alpha(C)|}{\delta}α≥εn2​logδ∣Nα​(C)∣​.
  5. Lemma 3.7 and Theorem 3.6 (finite classes): ∣Nα(C)∣≤∣X∣⌈log⁡∣C∣/α2⌉|N_\alpha(C)|\le|X|^{\lceil\log|C|/\alpha^2\rceil}∣Nα​(C)∣≤∣X∣⌈log∣C∣/α2⌉.
  6. Lemma 3.8 and Theorem 3.9 (finite VC-dimension): ∣Nα(C)∣≤∣X∣c0 dlog⁡(1/α)/α2|N_\alpha(C)|\le|X|^{c_0\,d\log(1/\alpha)/\alpha^2}∣Nα​(C)∣≤∣X∣c0​dlog(1/α)/α2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3.10 shows that a database of size roughly O~(VCDIM(C)log⁡∣X∣/(α3ε))\tilde O(\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)\log|X|/(\alpha^3\varepsilon))O~(VCDIM(C)log∣X∣/(α3ε)) suffices to release, privately, a synthetic database answering every query of CCC to within α\alphaα. This is only a polynomial factor above what sampling needs without privacy, and it covers classes with exponentially many queries in nnn, which interactive noise addition cannot. Together with Property 3.3 it is the first general feasibility result for non-interactive private release, and it identified VC-dimension as the governing parameter.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, modulo the cited uniform-convergence lemma (Lemma 3.8). No part of it is machine-checked on the platform. A complete development would give a formal exponential mechanism with a general score and its privacy proof, a formal utility analysis of a mechanism with a finite range, and a formal ε-approximation theorem for VC classes, which is the deepest dependency and reusable across learning theory.

Difficulty

The privacy and utility of the exponential mechanism (Theorem 3.2, Property 3.4) are short ratio arguments. The difficulty is concentrated in bounding the size of the net. For finite classes a random-sampling and union-bound argument suffices (Lemma 3.7). For infinite classes the union bound over CCC is unavailable, and Lemma 3.8 needs uniform convergence over a class of finite VC-dimension, uniformly over every finite multiset DDD: a symmetrization or chaining argument together with the Sauer–Shelah lemma, none of which is in Mathlib in this form. The obvious route of applying the finite-class bound to the restriction of CCC to the support of DDD gives a size depending on ∣D∣|D|∣D∣ and fails.

Formalization scope

  • Inputs are Fin n → X with X : Type finite; neighbouring means "replace one entry", the platform's PrivLearn.Generic.Neighbors. The paper's "∣DΔD′∣≤1|D\Delta D'|\le1∣DΔD′∣≤1" read literally for equal-size multisets forces D=D′D=D'D=D′ and would make every mechanism private.
  • Databases of arbitrary size are nonempty multisets (Database X), with every set measurable. Queries are real functions on multisets, so the same query reads inputs and outputs. Predicates are X → Bool; VC-dimension is the platform's HighDimProb.Chaining.vcDim (valued in ℕ∞; the theorems take it finite, equal to d≥1d\ge1d≥1).
  • Usefulness and α-nets use "for all Q∈CQ\in CQ∈C", not a real supremum. Nα(C)N_\alpha(C)Nα​(C) is never an infimum of cardinalities: statements quantify over minimum nets and assert that one exists.
  • The exponential mechanism is a finite mixture of point masses. Where the paper divides by GSqGS_qGSq​, Theorem 3.2 and Properties 3.3–3.4 assume GSq>0GS_q>0GSq​>0; Corollary 3.5 and Theorem 3.10 need no such hypothesis, because for counting queries GSq=0GS_q=0GSq​=0 forces a regime in which every output is accurate.
  • O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) instantiations. Lemma 3.8: ∣D′∣≤c0 dlog⁡(1/α)/α2|D'|\le c_0\,d\log(1/\alpha)/\alpha^2∣D′∣≤c0​dlog(1/α)/α2. Theorem 3.9: ∣Nα(C)∣≤∣X∣c0dlog⁡(1/α)/α2|N_\alpha(C)|\le|X|^{c_0 d\log(1/\alpha)/\alpha^2}∣Nα​(C)∣≤∣X∣c0​dlog(1/α)/α2 (real power). Theorem 3.10: the condition α≥cεα2n(dlog⁡∣X∣log⁡1α+log⁡1δ)\alpha\ge\frac{c}{\varepsilon\alpha^2n}(d\log|X|\log\frac1\alpha+\log\frac1\delta)α≥εα2nc​(dlog∣X∣logα1​+logδ1​). Each constant is absolute and quantified before the universe and the class. Theorem 3.10's (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ) is Corollary 3.5's (2α′,δ)(2\alpha',\delta)(2α′,δ) at α′=α/2\alpha'=\alpha/2α′=α/2, so the mechanism runs on a minimum α/2\alpha/2α/2-net. Lemma 3.7 and Theorem 3.6 round log⁡∣C∣/α2\log|C|/\alpha^2log∣C∣/α2 up and assume ∣C∣≥3|C|\ge3∣C∣≥3, as the paper's proof does.
  • Excluded corners, disclosed in each statement: d=0d=0d=0, α>12\alpha>\tfrac12α>21​. Logarithms are natural. The "solving for α" display O~(⋅)1/3\tilde O(\cdot)^{1/3}O~(⋅)1/3 of Theorem 3.10 is out of scope.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: usefulness is required of the Net mechanism as defined, whose output law is a genuine probability distribution over a nonempty net of nonempty databases (Property 3.3 records this), not of a zero measure, an empty net, or a net containing the empty database.

Welcome contributions: a general ε-approximation theorem for VC classes (Lemma 3.8), reusable well beyond this mission; a reusable exponential-mechanism privacy proof; the finite-range utility analysis of Property 3.4.

Selected references

  • A. Blum, K. Ligett, A. Roth, A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy, arXiv:1109.2229v1, 2011; J. ACM 60(2), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1109.2229
  • F. McSherry, K. Talwar, Mechanism Design via Differential Privacy, FOCS 2007. https://doi.org/10.1109/FOCS.2007.66
  • C. Dwork, F. McSherry, K. Nissim, A. Smith, Calibrating Noise to Sensitivity in Private Data Analysis, TCC 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/11681878_14
  • I. Dinur, K. Nissim, Revealing Information while Preserving Privacy, PODS 2003. https://doi.org/10.1145/773153.773173
  • M. Anthony, P. L. Bartlett, Neural Network Learning: Theoretical Foundations, Cambridge University Press, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511624216
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998.
  • Y. Li, P. M. Long, A. Srinivasan, Improved Bounds on the Sample Complexity of Learning, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 62(3), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcss.2000.1741
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Machine LearningTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy 3: No Differentially Private Mechanism Is Useful for Interval Queries over Real-Valued DatabasesResearch Paper

Motivation

Differential privacy (Dwork, McSherry, Nissim, Smith 2006) asks that a randomized algorithm run on a database behave almost identically whether or not any single record is changed. A central question for data curators is non-interactive release: publish, once, a sanitized object (ideally a synthetic database) from which analysts can answer many statistical queries accurately. Blum, Ligett and Roth (arXiv:1109.2229, JACM 2013) showed that over a discrete data universe this is possible for every class of counting queries of bounded VC-dimension, with accuracy governed by the VC-dimension and the logarithm of the universe size.

That dependence on the universe size raises an obvious question: can the discretization be removed? For real-valued data the class of interval queries ("what fraction of the records lies in [a,b][a,b][a,b]?") has VC-dimension 2, so a learning-theoretic intuition suggests that releasing a database accurate for all intervals should be easy. Section 5 of the paper shows that it is impossible under differential privacy. This mission formalizes that impossibility.

The phenomenon was later quantified: Bun, Nissim, Stemmer and Vadhan (FOCS 2015) showed that for approximate differential privacy, releasing threshold queries over a finite ordered domain of size NNN requires sample size growing with log⁡∗N\log^* Nlog∗N, so that the infinite case is impossible for approximate privacy as well. The present result is the pure-privacy statement for the real line.

Setting

A real-valued database of size n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 is a tuple z=(z1,…,zn)∈Rnz = (z_1,\dots,z_n) \in \mathbb R^nz=(z1​,…,zn​)∈Rn. Two databases are neighbours if they differ in exactly one coordinate. A mechanism maps each database zzz to a probability distribution A(z)A(z)A(z) on a measurable output space OOO. It is ε\varepsilonε-differentially private if for all neighbours z,z′z, z'z,z′ and all measurable S⊆OS \subseteq OS⊆O,

Pr⁡[A(z)∈S]≤eε Pr⁡[A(z′)∈S].\Pr[A(z) \in S] \le e^{\varepsilon}\,\Pr[A(z') \in S].Pr[A(z)∈S]≤eεPr[A(z′)∈S].

For real a≤ba \le ba≤b the interval query is Q[a,b](z)=#{i:a≤zi≤b}/nQ_{[a,b]}(z) = \#\{i : a \le z_i \le b\}/nQ[a,b]​(z)=#{i:a≤zi​≤b}/n. A mechanism with a readout ans(o,a,b)\mathrm{ans}(o,a,b)ans(o,a,b) (the answer that output ooo gives to Q[a,b]Q_{[a,b]}Q[a,b]​; for synthetic data D^\hat DD^, ans(D^,a,b)=Q[a,b](D^)\mathrm{ans}(\hat D,a,b) = Q_{[a,b]}(\hat D)ans(D^,a,b)=Q[a,b]​(D^)) is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for interval queries if for every database zzz,

Pr⁡o∼A(z)[∀a≤b: ∣ans(o,a,b)−Q[a,b](z)∣≤α]≥1−δ.\Pr_{o\sim A(z)}\big[\forall a \le b:\ |\mathrm{ans}(o,a,b) - Q_{[a,b]}(z)| \le \alpha\big] \ge 1-\delta .o∼A(z)Pr​[∀a≤b: ∣ans(o,a,b)−Q[a,b]​(z)∣≤α]≥1−δ.

A real number rrr is a θ\thetaθ-percentile point of zzz (the paper's "50−δ,50+δ50-\delta, 50+\delta50−δ,50+δ percentile" with θ=δ/100\theta = \delta/100θ=δ/100) if at least (1/2−θ)n(1/2-\theta)n(1/2−θ)n entries satisfy zi≤rz_i \le rzi​≤r and at least (1/2−θ)n(1/2-\theta)n(1/2−θ)n entries satisfy zi≥rz_i \ge rzi​≥r. A mechanism with real outputs answers median queries usefully with positive probability if on every database its output is a θ\thetaθ-percentile point with positive probability.

In Lean, databases are Fin n → ℝ; neighbours and differential privacy are the published PrivLearn.Generic.Neighbors and PrivLearn.Generic.IsDP; the new objects are intervalQuery, IsPercentile, AnswersMedianUsefully and UsefulIntervals in PrivateRelease.Continuous.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 5.2 (p. 15)

For every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, ε≥0\varepsilon \ge 0ε≥0 and α,δ<1/2\alpha, \delta < 1/2α,δ<1/2, no ε\varepsilonε-differentially private mechanism with a measurable readout is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for interval queries on Rn\mathbb R^nRn:

IsDP(A,ε)  ⟹  ¬ UsefulIntervals(A,ans,α,δ).\mathrm{IsDP}(A,\varepsilon) \;\Longrightarrow\; \neg\,\mathrm{UsefulIntervals}(A,\mathrm{ans},\alpha,\delta).IsDP(A,ε)⟹¬UsefulIntervals(A,ans,α,δ).

No constant is hard-coded; the thresholds 1/21/21/2 are the paper's.

Milestone: Theorem 5.1 (p. 14)

For every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, 0≤θ<1/20 \le \theta < 1/20≤θ<1/2 and real ε\varepsilonε, no ε\varepsilonε-differentially private mechanism A:Rn→P(R)A : \mathbb R^n \to \mathcal P(\mathbb R)A:Rn→P(R) answers median queries usefully with positive probability on every database:

IsDP(A,ε)  ⟹  ∃z, Pr⁡r∼A(z)[r is a θ-percentile point of z]=0.\mathrm{IsDP}(A,\varepsilon) \;\Longrightarrow\; \exists z,\ \Pr_{r\sim A(z)}[r \text{ is a } \theta\text{-percentile point of } z] = 0 .IsDP(A,ε)⟹∃z, r∼A(z)Pr​[r is a θ-percentile point of z]=0.

Significance

The result. Corollary 5.2 is the reason the paper's general release mechanism needs a discretized data universe and why its halfspace mechanism (§6) relaxes usefulness to large-margin queries. More broadly it separates private release from non-private learning: the class of intervals is learnable from O(1/α2)O(1/\alpha^2)O(1/α2) samples without privacy, yet no pure-private mechanism can release it at all over R\mathbb RR. It anticipates the line of work on private learning of thresholds and the role of the domain size in private query release.

Formalizing it. Both statements are proved in the paper; neither is, to our knowledge, machine-checked. A formal proof needs the countability of the atoms of a finite measure on R\mathbb RR, the stability of differential privacy under measurable post-processing, and a measurable selection of a percentile point from approximate interval answers. These pieces (especially post-processing for general measurable outputs) are reusable across formalized differential privacy.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for Theorem 5.1, a direct comparison of two neighbouring databases, gives nothing: changing one record moves the percentile set only slightly, and differential privacy allows each probability to change by a factor eεe^{\varepsilon}eε, so no single pair of neighbours yields a contradiction. A naive appeal to "the median reveals a record" also fails, since the statement must exclude even mechanisms that are correct with tiny positive probability.

For Corollary 5.2 the difficulty is measure-theoretic: the usefulness event intersects uncountably many conditions, the release must be converted into a single real output measurably, and the converted output must be a percentile point on the useful event for every real database, not only those in [0,1][0,1][0,1].

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • Databases are ordered tuples Fin n → ℝ with n≥1n \ge 1n≥1; the paper's neighbour relation "∣DΔD′∣≤1|D\Delta D'| \le 1∣DΔD′∣≤1" is read as replace-one-entry.
  • Mechanisms are families of probability measures (IsProbabilityMeasure (A z) is a hypothesis). Theorem 5.1's outputs live in R\mathbb RR with its Borel σ-algebra.
  • Interval queries use closed intervals [a,b][a,b][a,b] with a≤ba \le ba≤b, as in the paper's indicator Ia1,a2I_{a_1,a_2}Ia1​,a2​​ (p. 12).
  • Usefulness is required on every database in Rn\mathbb R^nRn (Definition 2.10 with X=RX = \mathbb RX=R). The usefulness event need not be measurable; its probability is the outer measure.
  • The goal is stated for an arbitrary measurable output space with a readout ans\mathrm{ans}ans measurable in the output for each fixed query. Synthetic data is a special case, so the formal goal is at least as strong as the paper's. The readout's measurability is necessary for the statement to be true with outer measures.
  • The percentile set counts entries equal to rrr on both sides. A one-sided reading (#{zi≤r}/n∈[1/2−θ,1/2+θ]\#\{z_i \le r\}/n \in [1/2-\theta, 1/2+\theta]#{zi​≤r}/n∈[1/2−θ,1/2+θ]) makes the set empty for constant databases, so that Theorem 5.1 would hold vacuously; the chosen definition always contains a sample median and equals {c}\{c\}{c} on a constant database (c,…,c)(c,\dots,c)(c,…,c) (both facts were checked locally in Lean).
  • Trivializing readings are ruled out: the percentile set is never empty, the mechanism is a probability measure (the zero measure is differentially private), and n=0n = 0n=0 (no neighbours, Q=0/0=0Q = 0/0 = 0Q=0/0=0 in Lean) is excluded.
  • There is no O(·)/Ω(·) in this section, so no constant was instantiated.
  • Not formalized: the clause of Corollary 5.2 "nor for any class CCC that generalizes interval queries to higher dimensions (for example, halfspaces, axis-aligned rectangles, or spheres)", because the paper does not define "generalizes".

Contributions welcome: a proof of Theorem 5.1; a general post-processing lemma for IsDP; the reduction from interval usefulness to median answers.

Selected references

  • A. Blum, K. Ligett, A. Roth, A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy, arXiv:1109.2229v1, 2011; J. ACM 60(2), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1109.2229, https://doi.org/10.1145/2450142.2450148
  • C. Dwork, F. McSherry, K. Nissim, A. Smith, Calibrating Noise to Sensitivity in Private Data Analysis, TCC 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/11681878_14
  • M. Bun, K. Nissim, U. Stemmer, S. Vadhan, Differentially Private Release and Learning of Threshold Functions, FOCS 2015. https://arxiv.org/abs/1504.07553
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Machine LearningTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy 4: (ε, β)-Distributional Privacy with β = o(1/n²) Implies ε-Differential PrivacyResearch Paper

Motivation

Differential privacy (Dwork, McSherry, Nissim and Smith 2006) is the standard guarantee for releasing statistics about a sensitive database: replacing one record changes the probability of any outcome by at most a factor eεe^{\varepsilon}eε. In their paper on non-interactive database privacy, Blum, Ligett and Roth propose an alternative motivated by learning theory, distributional privacy. When a database is a sample from a population, a release should reveal no more about the sample than is inherent in the population itself. Their example is a group of hospitals, each treating a random sample of the patients with a disease in a region: a hospital can publish information that describes the regional population without revealing which hospital's patients produced it.

The two notions look incomparable at first. Differential privacy protects only databases that differ in one record, but protects every such pair; distributional privacy can protect databases that differ in all their records, but only for typical pairs, and it tolerates a small failure probability β\betaβ. §7 of the paper (p. 19) shows that distributional privacy is the stronger notion once β\betaβ is small compared with 1/n21/n^21/n2. This mission formalizes that implication, Theorem 7.3.

Setting

Fix a data universe XXX and a measurable space RRR of outputs. In §7 a database of size nnn is a set D⊆XD\subseteq XD⊆X with ∣D∣=n|D|=n∣D∣=n; databases are drawn without replacement, so they have no repeated elements. A mechanism AAA assigns to each database DDD of size nnn the probability law A(D)A(D)A(D) of its random output, a measure on RRR, and Pr⁡[A(D)∈E]\Pr[A(D)\in E]Pr[A(D)∈E] denotes A(D)(E)A(D)(E)A(D)(E).

  • Two databases D,D′D,D'D,D′ of size nnn are neighbours if D′D'D′ is obtained from DDD by replacing one element: ∣D∖D′∣=1|D\setminus D'|=1∣D∖D′∣=1.
  • AAA is ε\varepsilonε-differentially private (Definition 2.1, p. 5) if Pr⁡[A(D)∈E]≤eεPr⁡[A(D′)∈E]\Pr[A(D)\in E]\le e^{\varepsilon}\Pr[A(D')\in E]Pr[A(D)∈E]≤eεPr[A(D′)∈E] for all neighbours D,D′D,D'D,D′ and all measurable events E⊆RE\subseteq RE⊆R.
  • For a finite population S⊆XS\subseteq XS⊆X with ∣S∣≥n|S|\ge n∣S∣≥n, two SSS-neighbours D1,D2D_1,D_2D1​,D2​ (Definition 7.1) are drawn independently, each uniformly among the nnn-element subsets of SSS.
  • A pair (D1,D2)(D_1,D_2)(D1​,D2​) is good if Pr⁡[A(D1)∈E]≤eεPr⁡[A(D2)∈E]\Pr[A(D_1)\in E]\le e^{\varepsilon}\Pr[A(D_2)\in E]Pr[A(D1​)∈E]≤eεPr[A(D2​)∈E] for all measurable EEE simultaneously.
  • AAA is (ε,β)(\varepsilon,\beta)(ε,β)-distributionally private (Definition 7.2) if, for every such SSS, the SSS-neighbours form a good pair with probability at least 1−β1-\beta1−β; equivalently, at most β(∣S∣n)2\beta\binom{|S|}{n}^2β(n∣S∣​)2 ordered pairs of nnn-subsets of SSS are bad.

The Lean development uses the same names: SetNeighbors, IsDPSet, GoodPair, badPairCount and IsDistPrivate in the namespace PrivateRelease.Distributional.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3

For a family of mechanisms (An)n(A_n)_n(An​)n​, one per database size, and failure probabilities βn=o(1/n2)\beta_n=o(1/n^2)βn​=o(1/n2):

n2βn→0  and  An is (ε,βn)-distributionally private for all n ⟹ An is ε-differentially private for all sufficiently large n.n^2\beta_n\to0\ \text{ and }\ A_n\text{ is }(\varepsilon,\beta_n)\text{-distributionally private for all }n\ \Longrightarrow\ A_n\text{ is }\varepsilon\text{-differentially private for all sufficiently large }n.n2βn​→0  and  An​ is (ε,βn​)-distributionally private for all n ⟹ An​ is ε-differentially private for all sufficiently large n.

The goal keeps the paper's asymptotic hypothesis and leaves the rate of βn\beta_nβn​ unfixed beyond o(1/n2)o(1/n^2)o(1/n2).

Milestone: the fixed-size statement

For a single size nnn, the threshold the paper's argument actually uses:

β<1(n+1)2  and  A is (ε,β)-distributionally private ⟹ A is ε-differentially private on databases of size n.\beta<\frac{1}{(n+1)^2}\ \text{ and }\ A\text{ is }(\varepsilon,\beta)\text{-distributionally private}\ \Longrightarrow\ A\text{ is }\varepsilon\text{-differentially private on databases of size }n.β<(n+1)21​  and  A is (ε,β)-distributionally private ⟹ A is ε-differentially private on databases of size n.

The goal follows from it, since n2βn→0n^2\beta_n\to0n2βn​→0 forces βn<1/(n+1)2\beta_n<1/(n+1)^2βn​<1/(n+1)2 eventually.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.3 places distributional privacy above differential privacy: a mechanism designed for the distributional guarantee automatically inherits every consequence of differential privacy, including its composition properties and its robustness to auxiliary information about individuals. The paper complements it with a separation (Theorem 7.5), so the inclusion is strict. A footnote extends the conclusion to tεt\varepsilontε-privacy for databases that differ in ttt elements.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. The value of the formalization lies in fixing the definitions. Definition 7.2 is informal about the sampling model ("drawn at random without replacement"), about whether the guarantee holds for all events at once or event by event, and about what β=o(1/n2)\beta=o(1/n^2)β=o(1/n2) means for a mechanism defined on one database size. The proof's count "with probability 2/n22/n^22/n2" is also loose: the exact probability of a given unordered pair is 2/(n+1)22/(n+1)^22/(n+1)2. The mission records one precise reading of each and the theorem under it, and the definitions are reusable for further work on distributional privacy and on the paper's separation result.

Difficulty

The mathematics is short; the difficulty is in the encoding. The step that fails under a careless reading is the passage from "with probability 1−β1-\beta1−β" to "with certainty": it requires the population SSS to be finite and small (the proof takes ∣S∣=n+1|S|=n+1∣S∣=n+1), so that a single pair has probability bounded below. If the guarantee is read event by event (for each EEE, most pairs satisfy the inequality for that EEE), the counting argument still applies to each event separately, but the definition is weaker than the paper's. If databases are allowed to repeat elements, the theorem is false, because distributional privacy never examines a database with repetitions while differential privacy does.

Formalization scope

  • Databases are Finset X of cardinality nnn; a mechanism is A : Finset X → Measure R, and only its values on nnn-element sets matter. [DecidableEq X] is assumed for set difference.
  • Neighbours replace one element ((D \ D').card = 1). The paper's literal "∣DΔD′∣≤1|D\Delta D'|\le1∣DΔD′∣≤1" holds for equal-size sets only when D=D′D=D'D=D′; the replace-one reading is the intended one.
  • Events are measurable subsets of RRR; with the σ-algebra ⊤\top⊤ on RRR these are all sets.
  • Only finite populations SSS are quantified. This weakens the hypothesis of Theorem 7.3 and so makes the theorem stronger. The two draws are independent, and pairs are counted as ordered pairs.
  • The asymptotic hypothesis is Tendsto (fun n => n^2 * β n) atTop (𝓝 0) and the conclusion is ∀ᶠ n in atTop; the claim for every nnn would be false at small nnn.
  • No probability-measure hypothesis is imposed: the theorem is an implication between two families of inequalities. The hypotheses are satisfiable, for instance by any constant mechanism.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: β\betaβ is constrained by n2βn→0n^2\beta_n\to0n2βn​→0, since for β≥1\beta\ge1β≥1 distributional privacy holds for every mechanism and the implication would be false; and the bad event is "some measurable EEE violates the inequality", not a per-event condition.
  • Explicit thresholds: the paper's "β=o(1/n2)\beta=o(1/n^2)β=o(1/n2)" with its count "2/n22/n^22/n2" becomes β<1/(n+1)2\beta<1/(n+1)^2β<1/(n+1)2 in the fixed-size milestone; no other O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) appears.
  • Out of scope: Theorem 7.5 (the separation) with Definition 7.4, because its query Q2/εQ_{2/\varepsilon}Q2/ε​ needs 2/ε∈N2/\varepsilon\in\mathbb N2/ε∈N, its databases are bit-vectors rather than sets, and "with constant probability" is never quantified.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestone and the goal, and the footnote's tεt\varepsilontε extension for databases differing in ttt elements, stated as a new theorem.

Selected references

  • A. Blum, K. Ligett, A. Roth, A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy, arXiv:1109.2229v1, 2011; J. ACM 60(2), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1109.2229 , https://doi.org/10.1145/2450142.2450148
  • C. Dwork, F. McSherry, K. Nissim, A. Smith, Calibrating Noise to Sensitivity in Private Data Analysis, TCC 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/11681878_14
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CombinatoricsMachine LearningTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy 2: An ε-Differentially Private Mechanism Useful on Databases of Size at Most VCDIM(C)/2 Has Error α ≥ Ω(1/(4+16ε))Research Paper

Motivation

A data curator holds a database of nnn records and wants to publish answers to a large family of statistical questions about it without revealing any individual record. Differential privacy (Dwork, McSherry, Nissim, Smith 2006) makes the requirement precise, and the most basic questions are counting queries: what fraction of the records satisfy a given predicate? Blum, Ligett and Roth (arXiv:1109.2229, JACM 2013) showed that a single private release can answer every query of a class CCC to error α\alphaα once the database has size roughly log⁡∣X∣⋅VCDIM(C)/(α3ϵ)\log|X| \cdot \mathrm{VCDIM}(C)/(\alpha^3\epsilon)log∣X∣⋅VCDIM(C)/(α3ϵ), so that the sample size depends on the class only through its VC-dimension, a quantity from learning theory.

This mission formalizes the converse in §3.1 of that paper: the dependence on the VC-dimension cannot be removed. On databases of fewer than VCDIM(C)/2\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)/2VCDIM(C)/2 records, every differentially private mechanism has constant error on some query of CCC. The argument is an early instance of the reconstruction attack idea of Dinur and Nissim (2003): accurate answers to many counting queries determine the database, and a mechanism that determines its input cannot be private.

Setting

Let XXX be a set (the data universe). An input database of size nnn is a tuple z=(z1,…,zn)∈Xnz = (z_1,\dots,z_n) \in X^nz=(z1​,…,zn​)∈Xn. A predicate is a map φ:X→{0,1}\varphi : X \to \{0,1\}φ:X→{0,1}, and its counting query is

Qφ(z)=1n #{i:φ(zi)=1}.Q_\varphi(z) = \frac{1}{n}\,\#\{i : \varphi(z_i) = 1\}.Qφ​(z)=n1​#{i:φ(zi​)=1}.

A class CCC of predicates is identified with its class of counting queries. A finite set S⊆XS \subseteq XS⊆X is shattered by CCC if every function S→{0,1}S \to \{0,1\}S→{0,1} is the restriction of some φ∈C\varphi \in Cφ∈C; the VC-dimension VCDIM(C)∈N∪{∞}\mathrm{VCDIM}(C) \in \mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}VCDIM(C)∈N∪{∞} is the supremum of the sizes of shattered sets.

A mechanism MMM maps each input z∈Xnz \in X^nz∈Xn to a probability distribution M(z)M(z)M(z) on an output space OOO; an output ooo is read through an answer map ans(o,φ)∈R\mathrm{ans}(o, \varphi) \in \mathbb Rans(o,φ)∈R. Two inputs are neighbours if they differ in exactly one entry. The mechanism is ϵ\epsilonϵ-differentially private if M(z)(E)≤eϵM(z′)(E)M(z)(E) \le e^{\epsilon} M(z')(E)M(z)(E)≤eϵM(z′)(E) for all neighbours z,z′z, z'z,z′ and all measurable events EEE. It is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for CCC if for every input zzz, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over o∼M(z)o \sim M(z)o∼M(z), every query is answered to within α\alphaα:

∀φ∈C:∣ans(o,φ)−Qφ(z)∣≤α.\forall \varphi \in C:\quad |\mathrm{ans}(o,\varphi) - Q_\varphi(z)| \le \alpha .∀φ∈C:∣ans(o,φ)−Qφ​(z)∣≤α.

In the paper the output is a synthetic database D^\hat DD^ and ans(D^,φ)=Qφ(D^)\mathrm{ans}(\hat D,\varphi) = Q_\varphi(\hat D)ans(D^,φ)=Qφ​(D^).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.11 (p. 11)

There is an absolute constant c>0c > 0c>0 such that for every universe XXX, class CCC, size n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 with n≤VCDIM(C)/2n \le \mathrm{VCDIM}(C)/2n≤VCDIM(C)/2, 0≤ϵ≤10 \le \epsilon \le 10≤ϵ≤1 and 0<δ≤1/40 < \delta \le 1/40<δ≤1/4: every ϵ\epsilonϵ-differentially private mechanism that is (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful for CCC on databases of size nnn satisfies

α ≥ c4+16ϵ.\alpha \ \ge\ \frac{c}{4 + 16\epsilon}.α ≥ 4+16ϵc​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.12. For a set SSS of size ddd and the family DS\mathcal D_SDS​ of its subsets of size d/2d/2d/2, and QTQ_TQT​ the counting query of a predicate equal to the indicator of TTT on SSS: QT(T)−QT(T′)=∣TΔT′∣/dQ_T(T) - Q_T(T') = |T\Delta T'|/dQT​(T)−QT​(T′)=∣TΔT′∣/d for T,T′∈DST, T' \in \mathcal D_ST,T′∈DS​.
  2. Lemma 3.13. For an (α,δ)(\alpha,\delta)(α,δ)-useful mechanism, a fixed procedure recovers from M(T)M(T)M(T) a set T′∈DST' \in \mathcal D_ST′∈DS​ with ∣T′ΔT∣≤2dα|T'\Delta T| \le 2d\alpha∣T′ΔT∣≤2dα, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.
  3. The final inequality of the proof (p. 12), with δ\deltaδ kept. Under the goal's hypotheses with 0<δ<10 < \delta < 10<δ<1 and any ϵ\epsilonϵ:
(1−δ)(1−2α) ≤ eϵ(δ+2α).(1-\delta)(1-2\alpha) \ \le\ e^{\epsilon}(\delta + 2\alpha).(1−δ)(1−2α) ≤ eϵ(δ+2α).

Significance

Theorem 3.11 shows that the VC-dimension term in the paper's upper bound is necessary: for a class of VC-dimension ddd, no private mechanism is accurate on databases of size below d/2d/2d/2, whatever its running time. It thereby locates the sample complexity of private query release between VCDIM(C)\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)VCDIM(C) and VCDIM(C)⋅log⁡∣X∣\mathrm{VCDIM}(C)\cdot\log|X|VCDIM(C)⋅log∣X∣ up to accuracy and privacy factors, a gap that later work on private learning and on fingerprinting codes studied in detail (Bun, Ullman, Vadhan 2014).

The theorem is proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it produces a checked reconstruction-attack lower bound for differential privacy, together with the corrected statement disclosed below: the printed proof drops the failure probability δ\deltaδ of the two reconstructions, and keeping it shows that the conclusion requires δ\deltaδ below 1/(1+eϵ)1/(1+e^{\epsilon})1/(1+eϵ), not merely "bounded away from 1". Milestone 3 records the inequality the argument actually yields.

Difficulty

The combinatorial core (Lemmas 3.12 and 3.13) is elementary. The difficulty lies in the last step, which compares the output distributions on two different inputs. The paper argues about a uniformly random T∈DST \in \mathcal D_ST∈DS​, a random element x∈Tx \in Tx∈T and a random y∉Ty \notin Ty∈/T, and the swapped set T^=(T∖{x})∪{y}\hat T = (T\setminus\{x\})\cup\{y\}T^=(T∖{x})∪{y}. Privacy applies to one fixed pair of neighbouring inputs and one fixed event, while the reconstruction guarantee only controls ∣T′ΔT∣|T'\Delta T|∣T′ΔT∣, not whether a particular element is recovered. The "probabilities" Pr⁡[x∈T′]\Pr[x \in T']Pr[x∈T′] of the printed proof mix the mechanism's randomness with the random choice of TTT, xxx, yyy, and they are not the probability of any single event under any single M(z)M(z)M(z), so the privacy inequality cannot be applied to them as written. The reconstruction event must also be measurable, which depends on the readout, and the failure probability δ\deltaδ must be carried through both reconstructions. A proof that sets δ=0\delta = 0δ=0, as the printed one does, does not prove the stated theorem.

Formalization scope

  • Databases. Inputs are Fin n → X with n≥1n \ge 1n≥1; the empty database is excluded because every mechanism is private on it and Qφ=0/0Q_\varphi = 0/0Qφ​=0/0 there. In the proof, a set T∈DST \in \mathcal D_ST∈DS​ is given to the mechanism as any injective listing of its elements.
  • Neighbours. The paper's "∣DΔD′∣≤1|D\Delta D'| \le 1∣DΔD′∣≤1" for databases of equal size is read as replacing one entry (PrivLearn.Generic.Neighbors); read literally, it would make every mechanism private and the theorem false. Under this reading TTT and T^\hat TT^ are neighbours, so the paper's factor e2ϵe^{2\epsilon}e2ϵ becomes eϵe^{\epsilon}eϵ.
  • Mechanisms. The output space is an arbitrary measurable space and answers are read through ans. Synthetic-data mechanisms are the special case O=O = O= databases, so the lower bound covers a larger class of mechanisms. The hypotheses require IsProbabilityMeasure (M z) and the measurability of o ↦ ans o φ for φ∈C\varphi \in Cφ∈C. Without the first, the zero measure is private; without the second, a mechanism into a trivial σ\sigmaσ-algebra would be private and "useful".
  • Ω and the range of δ. The paper writes α≥Ω(1/(4+16ϵ))\alpha \ge \Omega(1/(4+16\epsilon))α≥Ω(1/(4+16ϵ)) for "0<δ<10<\delta<10<δ<1 bounded away from 1 by a constant". The Lean goal quantifies one absolute constant c>0c > 0c>0 before every other binder and assumes 0<δ≤1/40 < \delta \le 1/40<δ≤1/4. The proof gives α≥((1−δ)−eϵδ)/(2(1−δ+eϵ))\alpha \ge ((1-\delta) - e^{\epsilon}\delta)/(2(1-\delta+e^{\epsilon}))α≥((1−δ)−eϵδ)/(2(1−δ+eϵ)), which is positive only for δ<1/(1+eϵ)\delta < 1/(1+e^{\epsilon})δ<1/(1+eϵ) (about 0.270.270.27 at ϵ=1\epsilon=1ϵ=1). The hypotheses ϵ≤1\epsilon \le 1ϵ≤1 and n≤VCDIM(C)/2n \le \mathrm{VCDIM}(C)/2n≤VCDIM(C)/2 are the paper's, the latter written 2n≤VCDIM(C)2n \le \mathrm{VCDIM}(C)2n≤VCDIM(C) in N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}.
  • Ruled out. The statement quantifies over every mechanism satisfying the hypotheses, randomized or not, so no restriction to deterministic or constant-output mechanisms makes the bound easy. The usefulness event is weighed by a probability measure, so the zero measure cannot be "useful". The constant cannot depend on nnn, ddd, XXX or CCC.
  • Infrastructure. The development reuses the published PrivLearn.Generic.Privacy (neighbours, IsDP) and Vershynin's HighDimProb.Chaining.Shatters and vcDim. Contributions needed: subsets of shattered sets are shattered, and 2n≤VCDIM(C)2n \le \mathrm{VCDIM}(C)2n≤VCDIM(C) yields a shattered set of size exactly 2n2n2n; measurability of the argmin reconstruction; the averaging/bijection argument. The first two are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Blum, K. Ligett, A. Roth, A Learning Theory Approach to Non-Interactive Database Privacy, arXiv:1109.2229v1 (2011); J. ACM 60(2), 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1109.2229 , https://doi.org/10.1145/2450142.2450148
  • C. Dwork, F. McSherry, K. Nissim, A. Smith, Calibrating Noise to Sensitivity in Private Data Analysis, TCC 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/11681878_14
  • I. Dinur, K. Nissim, Revealing Information while Preserving Privacy, PODS 2003. https://doi.org/10.1145/773153.773173
  • M. Bun, J. Ullman, S. Vadhan, Fingerprinting Codes and the Price of Approximate Differential Privacy, STOC 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1311.3158
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability, Cambridge University Press, 2018, §8.3 (VC dimension). https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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Linear algebraRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices I: The Master Tail Bound — the Largest Eigenvalue of an Independent Sum Is Controlled by the Sum of the Matrix Cumulant Generating FunctionsResearch Paper

Motivation

Sums of independent random matrices appear wherever a large matrix is built from random pieces: sample covariance matrices in statistics, random sparsification and sampling in numerical linear algebra, random graphs and their Laplacians, and compressed sensing. The basic question is how far the largest eigenvalue of such a sum can stray above its typical value. For sums of independent real random variables the answer is given by the classical inequalities of Chernoff, Hoeffding and Bernstein, all derived by the Laplace transform method: bound the tail by the moment generating function, and use independence to factor the moment generating function of the sum.

Ahlswede and Winter (2002) showed that a matrix analogue of the Laplace transform method exists, and Oliveira (2010) refined the starting inequality. Tropp's paper (arXiv:1004.4389) replaced the Ahlswede–Winter decoupling step by a consequence of Lieb's concavity theorem (Lieb 1973) and obtained a single master tail bound from which matrix versions of the Gaussian-series, Chernoff, Bernstein and Azuma inequalities follow with sharp variance parameters. This mission formalizes that master bound, the first of five missions covering the paper.

Timeline:

  • 1973: Lieb proves concavity of A↦tr⁡exp⁡(H+log⁡A)A\mapsto \operatorname{tr}\exp(H+\log A)A↦trexp(H+logA) on positive-definite matrices; Epstein gives a second proof (Epstein 1973).
  • 2002: Ahlswede and Winter introduce the matrix Laplace transform method, decoupling summands with the Golden–Thompson inequality.
  • 2010: Oliveira's variant of the matrix Laplace transform bound.
  • 2010–2012: Tropp derives the master bound for independent sums from Lieb's theorem (journal version: Found. Comput. Math. 12 (2012)); in 2011 he also derives Lieb's theorem from the joint convexity of quantum relative entropy (arXiv:1101.1070).

Setting

All matrices are d×dd\times dd×d arrays of complex numbers with d≥1d\ge1d≥1. A matrix AAA is self-adjoint (Hermitian) when A=A∗A=A^*A=A∗; it then has real eigenvalues, and λmax⁡(A)\lambda_{\max}(A)λmax​(A) denotes the largest one. For a function f:R→Rf:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rf:R→R and a self-adjoint A=QΛQ∗A=Q\Lambda Q^*A=QΛQ∗ with QQQ unitary and Λ\LambdaΛ diagonal, f(A):=Qf(Λ)Q∗f(A):=Qf(\Lambda)Q^*f(A):=Qf(Λ)Q∗. This defines the matrix exponential eAe^{A}eA of every self-adjoint matrix and the matrix logarithm log⁡A\log AlogA of every positive-definite matrix, with log⁡(eA)=A\log(e^A)=Alog(eA)=A. The trace exponential is A↦tr⁡eAA\mapsto\operatorname{tr}e^{A}A↦treA.

A random self-adjoint matrix is a measurable map XXX from a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) to the self-adjoint matrices. Its expectation EX\mathbb E XEX is the matrix of the expectations of its entries. A finite sequence X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ is independent when the maps are jointly independent. The matrix moment generating function and matrix cumulant generating function of XXX are

MX(θ):=E eθX,ΞX(θ):=log⁡E eθX,θ∈R,M_X(\theta):=\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X},\qquad \Xi_X(\theta):=\log\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X},\qquad\theta\in\mathbb R,MX​(θ):=EeθX,ΞX​(θ):=logEeθX,θ∈R,

which may fail to exist for some θ\thetaθ. In the Lean development these objects are lambdaMax, mexp, mlog, trExp and mean in the namespace MatrixTail.Master.

Formalization targets

Goal: the master tail bound (Theorem 3.6)

For independent random self-adjoint matrices X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ and every t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R,

P{λmax⁡(∑kXk)≥t}≤inf⁡θ>0{e−θt⋅tr⁡exp⁡(∑klog⁡E eθXk)}.\mathbb P\Bigl\{\lambda_{\max}\Bigl(\sum_k X_k\Bigr)\ge t\Bigr\}\le\inf_{\theta>0}\Bigl\{e^{-\theta t}\cdot\operatorname{tr}\exp\Bigl(\sum_k\log\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X_k}\Bigr)\Bigr\}.P{λmax​(k∑​Xk​)≥t}≤θ>0inf​{e−θt⋅trexp(k∑​logEeθXk​)}.

It contains no constants and no assumption beyond independence: every later inequality of the paper specializes it.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 3.1 (Laplace transform method): P{λmax⁡(Y)≥t}≤inf⁡θ>0{e−θt Etr⁡eθY}\mathbb P\{\lambda_{\max}(Y)\ge t\}\le\inf_{\theta>0}\{e^{-\theta t}\,\mathbb E\operatorname{tr}e^{\theta Y}\}P{λmax​(Y)≥t}≤infθ>0​{e−θtEtreθY}.
  2. Theorem 3.2 (Lieb): for fixed self-adjoint HHH, A↦tr⁡exp⁡(H+log⁡A)A\mapsto\operatorname{tr}\exp(H+\log A)A↦trexp(H+logA) is concave on the positive-definite cone.
  3. Corollary 3.3: Etr⁡exp⁡(H+X)≤tr⁡exp⁡(H+log⁡E eX)\mathbb E\operatorname{tr}\exp(H+X)\le\operatorname{tr}\exp(H+\log\mathbb E\,e^{X})Etrexp(H+X)≤trexp(H+logEeX).
  4. Lemma 3.4 (subadditivity of matrix cgfs): Etr⁡exp⁡(∑kθXk)≤tr⁡exp⁡(∑klog⁡E eθXk)\mathbb E\operatorname{tr}\exp(\sum_k\theta X_k)\le\operatorname{tr}\exp(\sum_k\log\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X_k})Etrexp(∑k​θXk​)≤trexp(∑k​logEeθXk​) for θ∈R\theta\in\mathbb Rθ∈R.

Significance

The master bound reduces every tail estimate for λmax⁡\lambda_{\max}λmax​ of an independent sum to semidefinite bounds on the individual cumulant generating functions. The paper's matrix Gaussian and Rademacher series bound, matrix Chernoff inequality and matrix Bernstein inequality are each one such bound away from it, and the matrix Bernstein inequality in particular is a standard tool in randomized numerical linear algebra, matrix completion and covariance estimation. Missions II–IV of this series take the master bound as their first milestone.

All results here are proved in the literature. What remains is formalization: none of Lieb's concavity theorem, the matrix Laplace transform bound or the subadditivity of matrix cumulant generating functions is in Mathlib, and a machine-checked Lieb theorem would be reusable throughout quantum information theory (strong subadditivity of entropy, joint convexity of relative entropy).

Difficulty

The scalar argument factors Eexp⁡(∑kθXk)=∏kE eθXk\mathbb E\exp(\sum_k\theta X_k)=\prod_k\mathbb E\,e^{\theta X_k}Eexp(∑k​θXk​)=∏k​EeθXk​, which needs ea+b=eaebe^{a+b}=e^ae^bea+b=eaeb. For non-commuting matrices eA+B≠eAeBe^{A+B}\ne e^Ae^BeA+B=eAeB, so this step fails. The Golden–Thompson inequality tr⁡eA+H≤tr⁡(eAeH)\operatorname{tr}e^{A+H}\le\operatorname{tr}(e^Ae^H)treA+H≤tr(eAeH) handles two summands but its three-matrix analogue is false, so it does not iterate. Lieb's concavity theorem is the deep input; it does not follow from elementary properties of the exponential, which is neither operator monotone nor operator convex. On the formal side, the matrix functional calculus of Mathlib carries little of the trace-function theory the statements rely on.

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin d) (Fin d) ℂ with [NeZero d] wherever λmax⁡\lambda_{\max}λmax​ appears; for d=0d=0d=0 the largest eigenvalue would be 000 and the bound would fail at t≤0t\le0t≤0. Exponential and logarithm are Mathlib's continuous functional calculus cfc. Random matrices are measurable maps for the Borel σ-algebra on the entries, independence is iIndepFun, and P is a probability measure. Expectation is entrywise.

The paper's standing assumption that expectations exist is made explicit and only where an expectation is taken: every entry of eθXke^{\theta X_k}eθXk​ is integrable for the θ\thetaθ in question. The infimum over θ>0\theta>0θ>0 is stated as the bound for every θ>0\theta>0θ>0 at which the moment generating functions exist; since an inequality p≤inf⁡θF(θ)p\le\inf_\theta F(\theta)p≤infθ​F(θ) is equivalent to p≤F(θ)p\le F(\theta)p≤F(θ) for every θ\thetaθ, and the paper treats a non-existent moment generating function as +∞+\infty+∞, this is exact. A real-valued infimum over θ\thetaθ, or dropping the integrability hypotheses, would make the statements trivially true through Lean's default values (inf⁡\infinf of an unbounded set and the integral of a non-integrable function are 000); the formalization rules both out.

Useful infrastructure beyond this mission: trace inequalities for cfc on Hermitian matrices, monotonicity of the trace exponential in the semidefinite order, and Lieb's concavity theorem itself. Contributions of any of these as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. A. Tropp, User-Friendly Tail Bounds for Sums of Random Matrices, arXiv:1004.4389v7 (2011); Found. Comput. Math. 12 (2012) 389–434. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.4389, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10208-011-9099-z
  • R. Ahlswede and A. Winter, Strong converse for identification via quantum channels, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 48(3) (2002) 569–579. https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/0012127
  • R. I. Oliveira, Sums of random Hermitian matrices and an inequality by Rudelson, Electron. Commun. Probab. 15 (2010) 203–212. https://arxiv.org/abs/1004.3821
  • E. H. Lieb, Convex trace functions and the Wigner–Yanase–Dyson conjecture, Adv. Math. 11 (1973) 267–288. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-8708(73)90011-X
  • H. Epstein, Remarks on two theorems of E. Lieb, Comm. Math. Phys. 31 (1973) 317–325. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01646492
  • J. A. Tropp, From joint convexity of quantum relative entropy to a concavity theorem of Lieb, Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 140 (2012) 1757–1760. https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.1070
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Learning and Online Convex Optimization 5: Online-to-Batch Conversion Bounds the Excess Risk by the Expected Average RegretResearch Paper

Motivation

Online learning and stochastic learning ask different questions. An online learner faces an arbitrary sequence of loss functions and is judged by its regret: the excess of its cumulative loss over that of the best fixed hypothesis in hindsight. A stochastic learner receives independent samples from an unknown distribution and is judged by the risk of a single hypothesis it outputs. Regret bounds hold without any probabilistic assumption, so they are strong guarantees; risk bounds are what statistical learning and stochastic optimization actually need.

The online-to-batch conversion connects the two: run any online learner on losses built from i.i.d. samples and output either the average of its predictions or one prediction chosen at random. The expected excess risk of the output is then at most the expected regret divided by the number of rounds. A general form of the conversion is due to Cesa-Bianchi, Conconi and Gentile (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 2004). Shalev-Shwartz's survey (Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 2011) states it in expectation, in Vapnik's general setting of learning, as Theorem 5.1 and Corollary 5.2 (§5, pp. 186–189). Every stochastic-gradient analysis that goes "regret bound, then online-to-batch" rests on this statement.

Setting

Fix a dimension ddd and a hypothesis class S⊆RdS \subseteq \mathbb R^dS⊆Rd. Examples range over a measurable space Ψ\PsiΨ and are drawn from a probability distribution QQQ on Ψ\PsiΨ, which the learner does not know. A cost c(w,ψ)≥0c(w,\psi) \ge 0c(w,ψ)≥0 measures how badly hypothesis w∈Sw\in Sw∈S does on example ψ\psiψ, and the risk of www is

C(w)=Eψ∼Q [c(w,ψ)].C(w) = \mathbb E_{\psi\sim Q}\,[c(w,\psi)].C(w)=Eψ∼Q​[c(w,ψ)].

This is Vapnik's general setting of learning (Definition 5.1); supervised classification, regression and stochastic convex optimization are special cases.

The conversion draws ψ0,…,ψT−1\psi_0,\dots,\psi_{T-1}ψ0​,…,ψT−1​ independently from QQQ and runs an online learner on the losses ft(w)=c(w,ψt)f_t(w) = c(w,\psi_t)ft​(w)=c(w,ψt​). Its prediction in round ttt, wt∈Sw_t\in Swt​∈S, may depend only on ψ0,…,ψt−1\psi_0,\dots,\psi_{t-1}ψ0​,…,ψt−1​. The output wˉ\bar wwˉ is either the average 1T∑twt\frac1T\sum_t w_tT1​∑t​wt​ or the randomized choice wrw_rwr​, with rrr uniform on the TTT rounds and independent of the sample.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 5.2

For every comparator u∈Su\in Su∈S, under the conditions of Theorem 5.1,

E[C(wˉ)]−C(u)  ≤  E[1T∑t(ft(wt)−ft(u))],\mathbb E\big[C(\bar w)\big] - C(u) \;\le\; \mathbb E\Big[\frac1T\sum_{t}\big(f_t(w_t)-f_t(u)\big)\Big],E[C(wˉ)]−C(u)≤E[T1​t∑​(ft​(wt​)−ft​(u))],

for the randomized output, and for the averaged output when SSS and CCC are convex. The right side is the expected regret divided by TTT. The statement contains no constant: it is an exact reduction, valid for every online learner.

Milestones

  1. The round-ttt identity E[c(wt,ψt)]=E[C(wt)]\mathbb E[c(w_t,\psi_t)] = \mathbb E[C(w_t)]E[c(wt​,ψt​)]=E[C(wt​)] (§5, p. 188).
  2. Equation (5.1): E[1T∑tC(wt)]=E[1T∑tc(wt,ψt)]\mathbb E\big[\frac1T\sum_t C(w_t)\big] = \mathbb E\big[\frac1T\sum_t c(w_t,\psi_t)\big]E[T1​∑t​C(wt​)]=E[T1​∑t​c(wt​,ψt​)].
  3. Theorem 5.1: E[C(wˉ)]=E[1T∑tft(wt)]\mathbb E[C(\bar w)] = \mathbb E\big[\frac1T\sum_t f_t(w_t)\big]E[C(wˉ)]=E[T1​∑t​ft​(wt​)] for randomization, and ≤\le≤ for averaging when CCC is convex.
  4. The comparator identity E[1T∑tc(u,ψt)]=C(u)\mathbb E\big[\frac1T\sum_t c(u,\psi_t)\big] = C(u)E[T1​∑t​c(u,ψt​)]=C(u) (p. 189).

Significance

Corollary 5.2 makes every regret bound a risk bound. Combined with the O(T)O(\sqrt T)O(T​) regret of online gradient descent or online mirror descent, it gives the O(1/T)O(1/\sqrt T)O(1/T​) excess-risk rate of stochastic gradient methods for convex Lipschitz problems; combined with logarithmic regret for strongly convex losses, it gives O(log⁡T/T)O(\log T / T)O(logT/T) rates. The survey's own "Stochastic Online Mirror Descent" box (p. 189) is exactly this composition.

The result is proved in the paper. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version in a measure-theoretic model with honest non-anticipation and a genuine model of the randomized output. The platform has a related statement, Mohri, Rostamizadeh and Talwalkar's Theorem 8.15 (FoundationsML.OnlineLearning.online_to_batch_conversion), which is a high-probability bound for bounded convex losses in supervised learning; it is a different statement and neither implies the other. The expectation form here is the one stochastic-optimization arguments use.

Difficulty

The result is short on paper; the formal content is the conditional-expectation step. The prediction wtw_twt​ is a random variable built from ψ0,…,ψt−1\psi_0,\dots,\psi_{t-1}ψ0​,…,ψt−1​, while ψt\psi_tψt​ is a fresh draw, so E[c(wt,ψt)]\mathbb E[c(w_t,\psi_t)]E[c(wt​,ψt​)] must be computed by integrating out ψt\psi_tψt​ first, which means a Fubini–Tonelli argument on a product of TTT copies of QQQ split into the past, the present and the future of round ttt. The first idea, that c(wt,ψt)c(w_t,\psi_t)c(wt​,ψt​) has the same law as c(w,ψ)c(w,\psi)c(w,ψ) for a fixed www, is wrong: wtw_twt​ is random. The identity also fails as soon as wtw_twt​ may look at ψt\psi_tψt​ (take wtw_twt​ a minimizer of c(⋅,ψt)c(\cdot,\psi_t)c(⋅,ψt​)), so the argument must use the information structure, not only the marginal laws. The averaging part additionally needs Jensen's inequality for CCC and the measurability of CCC as a function of the hypothesis.

Formalization scope

  • Hypotheses live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with SSS a set, because averaging needs a vector space. Rounds are numbered 0,…,T−10,\dots,T-10,…,T−1, and T≥1T \ge 1T≥1.
  • The sample is ψ : Fin T → Ψ under Measure.pi (fun _ => Q), with Q a probability measure: independent draws from QQQ.
  • The online learner is a family A t : (Fin t → Ψ) → ℝ^d of measurable maps with values in SSS, so non-anticipation holds by typing: wt=At(ψ0,…,ψt−1)w_t = A_t(\psi_0,\dots,\psi_{t-1})wt​=At​(ψ0​,…,ψt−1​). The learner may read the examples, not only the losses; this class contains the paper's learners, so the statements are at least as strong.
  • The randomized output is modelled on the product of the sample law with the uniform law on Fin T. The expectation over rrr is not replaced by the average over rounds (that replacement is the first line of the proof).
  • Standing assumptions on the cost (footnote 1, made explicit): c≥0c\ge0c≥0 on S×ΨS\times\PsiS×Ψ, jointly measurable on S×ΨS\times\PsiS×Ψ, and c(w,⋅)c(w,\cdot)c(w,⋅) integrable for each w∈Sw\in Sw∈S, so that C(w)C(w)C(w) is a real number.
  • Added hypotheses, each recorded in the statements: u∈Su\in Su∈S for "uuu any vector"; SSS convex for the averaged output, so that wˉ∈S\bar w\in Swˉ∈S; for the averaged output, the online losses c(wt,ψt)c(w_t,\psi_t)c(wt​,ψt​) have finite expectation (otherwise the paper's inequality has an infinite right side, which Lean's Bochner integral would read as 000).
  • No O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) appears in this section, so there are no constants to instantiate, and no erratum was found.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: a prediction allowed to depend on the whole sample would make the identity false, and integrals of non-integrable functions, which Lean evaluates to 000, appear only on sides where the hypotheses or nonnegativity make them meaningful.
  • Out of scope: the high-probability version (footnote 2, p. 187), empirical risk minimization (p. 187), and the "Stochastic Online Mirror Descent" box (p. 189), which carries no theorem.

Infrastructure needed: Tonelli/Fubini on finite products split at a coordinate (Mathlib's Measure.pi), measurability of parametric integrals, and Jensen's inequality for a convex function of a finite average. The round-ttt identity is reusable for any non-anticipating stochastic process; contributions of proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, Online Learning and Online Convex Optimization, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 4(2), 107–194, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000018
  • N. Cesa-Bianchi, A. Conconi, C. Gentile, On the generalization ability of on-line learning algorithms, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 50(9), 2050–2057, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2004.833339
  • V. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998. ISBN 978-0-471-03003-4
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: mikedeng1

Scaling for a One-Dimensional Directed Polymer with Boundary Conditions: In the Characteristic Direction, the Free Energy of the Log-Gamma Polymer Has Variance of Order N^(2/3)Research Paper

Motivation

A directed polymer in a random environment is a random up-right lattice path whose law is reweighted by random site weights. Its free energy, the logarithm of the partition function, is believed to belong to the Kardar–Parisi–Zhang (KPZ) universality class: for a path of length of order NNN, the free energy fluctuates on the scale N1/3N^{1/3}N1/3 and the path wanders on the scale N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3. For zero-temperature analogues (last-passage percolation with exponential or geometric weights) these exponents were established through exact formulas from random matrix theory (Johansson 2000) and later through a probabilistic coupling argument based on the Burke property of queues (Balázs–Cator–Seppäläinen 2006).

For directed polymers at positive temperature no model with the KPZ exponents was known until Seppäläinen (arXiv:0911.2446, Ann. Probab. 2012) introduced the log-gamma polymer, whose weights are reciprocals of gamma variables, and proved that its free energy has variance of order N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3 in the characteristic direction. The model has since become a basic exactly solvable polymer:

  • 2009: Seppäläinen, the log-gamma polymer with boundary conditions; variance bounds of order N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3 and path fluctuation exponent 2/32/32/3, by a Burke property and a variance identity.
  • 2013: Borodin, Corwin and Remenik, Fredholm determinant formula and Tracy–Widom GUE limit of the free energy, for a range of parameters.
  • 2014: Corwin, O'Connell, Seppäläinen and Zygouras, Tropical combinatorics and Whittaker functions, an exact formula for the law of the partition function via the geometric RSK correspondence.

The present mission formalizes the 2009 variance theorem, which needs neither of the later exact formulas.

Setting

Sites are Z+2={0,1,2,… }2\mathbb Z_+^2=\{0,1,2,\dots\}^2Z+2​={0,1,2,…}2 and N={1,2,… }\mathbb N=\{1,2,\dots\}N={1,2,…}. A weight configuration assigns a positive number Yi,jY_{i,j}Yi,j​ to each site. On the axes, Ui,0=Yi,0U_{i,0}=Y_{i,0}Ui,0​=Yi,0​ and V0,j=Y0,jV_{0,j}=Y_{0,j}V0,j​=Y0,j​ for i,j∈Ni,j\in\mathbb Ni,j∈N are the boundary weights, and Yi,jY_{i,j}Yi,j​, i,j∈Ni,j\in\mathbb Ni,j∈N, are the bulk weights.

An up-right path from (0,0)(0,0)(0,0) to (m,n)(m,n)(m,n) is a sequence x0=(0,0),x1,…,xm+n=(m,n)x_0=(0,0),x_1,\dots,x_{m+n}=(m,n)x0​=(0,0),x1​,…,xm+n​=(m,n) whose steps are (1,0)(1,0)(1,0) or (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). The partition function is

Zm,n=∑x∏k=1m+nYxk,Z_{m,n}=\sum_{x}\prod_{k=1}^{m+n}Y_{x_k},Zm,n​=x∑​k=1∏m+n​Yxk​​,

the weight of the origin excluded, Z0,0=1Z_{0,0}=1Z0,0​=1. The quenched polymer measure gives the path xxx probability Qm,nω(x)=Zm,n−1∏k=1m+nYxkQ^\omega_{m,n}(x)=Z_{m,n}^{-1}\prod_{k=1}^{m+n}Y_{x_k}Qm,nω​(x)=Zm,n−1​∏k=1m+n​Yxk​​, and the annealed measure is its average Pm,n=E Qm,nωP_{m,n}=\mathbb E\,Q^\omega_{m,n}Pm,n​=EQm,nω​ over the environment. The exit points ξx\xi_xξx​ and ξy\xi_yξy​ are the numbers of initial steps the path takes along the xxx-axis and along the yyy-axis.

Assumption (2.4). Fix 0<θ<μ0<\theta<\mu0<θ<μ. The weights {Ui,0,V0,j,Yi,j:i,j∈N}\{U_{i,0},V_{0,j},Y_{i,j}: i,j\in\mathbb N\}{Ui,0​,V0,j​,Yi,j​:i,j∈N} are independent with

Ui,0−1∼Gamma(θ,1),V0,j−1∼Gamma(μ−θ,1),Yi,j−1∼Gamma(μ,1).U_{i,0}^{-1}\sim\mathrm{Gamma}(\theta,1),\qquad V_{0,j}^{-1}\sim\mathrm{Gamma}(\mu-\theta,1),\qquad Y_{i,j}^{-1}\sim\mathrm{Gamma}(\mu,1).Ui,0−1​∼Gamma(θ,1),V0,j−1​∼Gamma(μ−θ,1),Yi,j−1​∼Gamma(μ,1).

Let Ψ0=(log⁡Γ)′\Psi_0=(\log\Gamma)'Ψ0​=(logΓ)′ and Ψ1=Ψ0′\Psi_1=\Psi_0'Ψ1​=Ψ0′​ be the digamma and trigamma functions. The characteristic direction is (Ψ1(μ−θ),Ψ1(θ))(\Psi_1(\mu-\theta),\Psi_1(\theta))(Ψ1​(μ−θ),Ψ1​(θ)). For a real scaling parameter NNN and a constant γ\gammaγ, the endpoint satisfies

∣m−NΨ1(μ−θ)∣≤γN2/3and∣n−NΨ1(θ)∣≤γN2/3(2.6).|m-N\Psi_1(\mu-\theta)|\le\gamma N^{2/3}\quad\text{and}\quad|n-N\Psi_1(\theta)|\le\gamma N^{2/3}\qquad(2.6).∣m−NΨ1​(μ−θ)∣≤γN2/3and∣n−NΨ1​(θ)∣≤γN2/3(2.6).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1

There are constants 0<C1,C2<∞0<C_1,C_2<\infty0<C1​,C2​<∞ and N0N_0N0​, depending on θ,μ,γ\theta,\mu,\gammaθ,μ,γ, such that under (2.4) and (2.6)

Var(log⁡Zm,n)≤C2N2/3(N≥1),C1N2/3≤Var(log⁡Zm,n)(N≥N0).\mathrm{Var}(\log Z_{m,n})\le C_2N^{2/3}\quad(N\ge1),\qquad C_1N^{2/3}\le\mathrm{Var}(\log Z_{m,n})\quad(N\ge N_0).Var(logZm,n​)≤C2​N2/3(N≥1),C1​N2/3≤Var(logZm,n​)(N≥N0​).

Milestones

The upper bound runs through the Burke property and the variance identity:

  • Lemma 3.1 (monotonicity of the recursion (3.2)), Lemma 3.2 (gamma reversibility), Theorem 3.3 (Burke property), the mean (2.5), Elog⁡Zm,n=−mΨ0(θ)−nΨ0(μ−θ)\mathbb E\log Z_{m,n}=-m\Psi_0(\theta)-n\Psi_0(\mu-\theta)ElogZm,n​=−mΨ0​(θ)−nΨ0​(μ−θ).
  • Theorem 3.7, the variance identity
Var[log⁡Zm,n]=nΨ1(μ−θ)−mΨ1(θ)+2Em,n[∑i=1ξxL(θ,Yi,0−1)].\mathrm{Var}[\log Z_{m,n}]=n\Psi_1(\mu-\theta)-m\Psi_1(\theta)+2E_{m,n}\Bigl[\sum_{i=1}^{\xi_x}L(\theta,Y_{i,0}^{-1})\Bigr].Var[logZm,n​]=nΨ1​(μ−θ)−mΨ1​(θ)+2Em,n​[i=1∑ξx​​L(θ,Yi,0−1​)].
  • Lemma 4.1 (variance comparison in θ\thetaθ), Lemma 4.2, the exit-point bound (4.32) E(ξx)≤CN2/3E(\xi_x)\le CN^{2/3}E(ξx​)≤CN2/3, Lemma 4.3 (quenched exit-point tails).

The lower bound runs through partition-function comparisons:

  • Lemma 5.1, Lemma 5.4 (coupling), Lemma 5.5(i), Proposition 5.3 (lim⁡δ↘0lim‾⁡NP{1≤ξx≤δN2/3}=0\lim_{\delta\searrow0}\varlimsup_NP\{1\le\xi_x\le\delta N^{2/3}\}=0limδ↘0​limN​P{1≤ξx​≤δN2/3}=0), Corollary 5.6 (Var≥cN2/3\mathrm{Var}\ge cN^{2/3}Var≥cN2/3, c>0c>0c>0).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.1 was the first proof of the KPZ fluctuation exponent 1/31/31/3 for a directed polymer at positive temperature. Its upper bound also yields a strong law of large numbers for N−1log⁡Zm,nN^{-1}\log Z_{m,n}N−1logZm,n​ (2.7) and, with Theorem 3.3, a central limit theorem off the characteristic direction (Corollary 2.2). The exit-point estimates of Sections 4 and 5 give the path fluctuation exponent 2/32/32/3 (Theorem 2.3) and are reused for the polymer without boundaries and the point-to-line polymer (Theorems 2.4–2.6).

Formalizing it. The theorem has been proved since 2009; no formal proof of it in a proof assistant is known. A formalization checks a proof with many interacting estimates and two corrected slips (below). The definitions made here (the lattice-path partition function, the inverse-gamma environment, the recursion (3.2), exit points, quenched and annealed measures) are the base for later missions on Theorems 2.3–2.7 of the same paper. Lemma 3.2 contains a gamma-distribution characterization (Lukacs' theorem) of independent interest.

Difficulty

The obvious route to a variance bound, a martingale decomposition of log⁡Zm,n\log Z_{m,n}logZm,n​ over the mnmnmn independent weights, gives only Var=O(m+n)\mathrm{Var}=O(m+n)Var=O(m+n), i.e. order NNN; it cannot see the cancellation that produces N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3. The order N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3 is specific to the characteristic direction: off it, log⁡Zm,n\log Z_{m,n}logZm,n​ satisfies a central limit theorem with variance of larger order (Corollary 2.2), so any argument must use the exact relation between the boundary parameters θ,μ−θ\theta,\mu-\thetaθ,μ−θ and the endpoint (m,n)(m,n)(m,n). The upper bound requires controlling the annealed exit point E(ξx)E(\xi_x)E(ξx​) at the scale N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3, with tail estimates whose constants are uniform in the parameters. The lower bound is a separate statement: the path must not exit an axis at distance o(N2/3)o(N^{2/3})o(N2/3) from the origin with non-vanishing probability, which no upper-bound estimate implies.

Formalization scope

Source: arXiv:0911.2446v4 (26 Aug 2015, revised version); its printed page numbers equal the PDF's. All declarations are in the namespace LogGammaPolymer.Variance.

  • Sites are ℕ × ℕ; a path is a step sequence with a fixed number of east steps; ZZZ is a finite sum over these paths with the starting weight excluded. The environment Env θ μ P bundles one weight family Y : ℕ × ℕ → Ω → ℝ, measurability, mutual independence of every weight off the origin, and the three laws as images under y↦y−1y\mapsto y^{-1}y↦y−1 equal to Mathlib's gammaMeasure (shape, rate 111). Positivity of the weights is not assumed pointwise in the probabilistic statements; it holds almost surely. The deterministic lemmas (3.1, 5.1, 5.4) are stated for every weight function positive off the origin.
  • NNN is real and N2/3N^{2/3}N2/3 is a real power. Variances use Mathlib's variance, and every upper bound or identity also asserts log⁡Zm,n∈L2\log Z_{m,n}\in L^2logZm,n​∈L2 (or integrability of the averaged quantity), so that the junk value 000 of variance and of the Bochner integral cannot satisfy it.
  • Constants come after the parameters (θ,μ,γ)(\theta,\mu,\gamma)(θ,μ,γ) and before the probability space (universe Type), the environment, NNN and (m,n)(m,n)(m,n). Upper limits in NNN are stated as "for every η>0\eta>0η>0 there is N0N_0N0​ with the bound +η+\eta+η for N≥N0N\ge N_0N≥N0​". The compact-set uniformity of Lemmas 4.1, 4.3 and (4.32) is formalized. The remark after Theorem 2.1 on uniform constants is not.
  • Corrected slips. (i) Theorem 2.1 prints the lower bound for all N≥1N\ge1N≥1. It fails at N=1N=1N=1, θ=1\theta=1θ=1, μ=2\mu=2μ=2, γ=2\gamma=2γ=2 with (m,n)=(0,0)(m,n)=(0,0)(m,n)=(0,0), where the variance is 000. The lower bound is stated for N≥N0N\ge N_0N≥N0​, which is what Corollary 5.6 proves. (ii) The "only if" of Lemma 3.2 fails for the constants U=V=1U=V=1U=V=1, Y=1/2Y=1/2Y=1/2. The hypothesis "UUU is not a.s. constant" is added. (iii) Corollary 5.6 states c>0c>0c>0 explicitly.
  • Theorem 3.3 is stated for down-right paths that coincide with the axes outside a finite portion. The paper reduces the general case to these.
  • Not included: Lemma 3.5 (reversal), Proposition 3.4, Lemma 5.5(ii).

A formalization in which ZZZ includes the origin's weight, the laws are not exactly the inverse gammas with shapes θ,μ−θ,μ\theta,\mu-\theta,\muθ,μ−θ,μ and rate 111, independence is dropped, C1=0C_1=0C1​=0 is allowed, or the constants depend on the environment or on NNN does not state Theorem 2.1.

Needed infrastructure: gamma–beta algebra and a Lukacs-type characterization, independence of finite families built by the recursion (3.2), differentiation of expectations in the shape parameter, and moment bounds for sums of i.i.d. variables. All of these are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone, and of supporting lemmas such as (3.3)–(3.4), are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Seppäläinen, Scaling for a one-dimensional directed polymer with boundary conditions, Ann. Probab. 40 (2012) 19–73; revised version arXiv:0911.2446v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/0911.2446
  • K. Johansson, Shape fluctuations and random matrices, Comm. Math. Phys. 209 (2000) 437–476. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/9903134
  • M. Balázs, E. Cator, T. Seppäläinen, Cube root fluctuations for the corner growth model associated to the exclusion process, Electron. J. Probab. 11 (2006) 1094–1132. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0603306
  • I. Corwin, N. O'Connell, T. Seppäläinen, N. Zygouras, Tropical combinatorics and Whittaker functions, Duke Math. J. 163 (2014) 513–563. https://arxiv.org/abs/1110.3489
  • A. Borodin, I. Corwin, D. Remenik, Log-gamma polymer free energy fluctuations via a Fredholm determinant identity, Comm. Math. Phys. 324 (2013) 215–232. https://arxiv.org/abs/1206.4573
  • E. Lukacs, A characterization of the gamma distribution, Ann. Math. Statist. 26 (1955) 319–324. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177728549
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Hedging Inventory Risk Through Market Instruments II: A Small Fair Hedge Raises the Newsvendor's Expected UtilityResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer that orders stock months before the selling season carries inventory risk: its profit depends on a demand it cannot observe when it commits. For many goods that demand moves with a quantity traded on financial markets: sales of housing-related products with an interest-rate or construction index, sales of fashion or luxury goods with a stock index, sales of commodity-intensive products with a commodity price. V. Gaur and S. Seshadri, Hedging Inventory Risk Through Market Instruments (MSOM 7(2), 2005), ask what such a firm gains by trading in that market, and how the trade interacts with the ordering decision.

Their analysis has two halves. When demand is perfectly correlated with the asset price, the newsvendor payoff can be replicated by a portfolio of the asset and call options, and inventory risk can be removed completely (§2). When demand is only partially correlated, the hedge is imperfect, and the question becomes whether a decision maker with a concave utility still benefits from hedging, and whether hedging changes the order quantity (§3.2). This mission formalizes the first of these two questions in the partially correlated model: Proposition 5, which says that a small fair hedge never lowers expected utility at the margin. A companion mission of the same series treats Proposition 7, on the order quantity.

Setting

A firm orders III units now at unit cost ccc, sells at price ppp at a future time TTT, and salvages leftovers at sss. The demand is

D=a+bST+ε′,D = a + bS_T + \varepsilon',D=a+bST​+ε′,

where STS_TST​ is the time-TTT price of a traded asset and ε′\varepsilon'ε′ is a forecast error, independent of STS_TST​, with E[ε′]=0\mathbb E[\varepsilon'] = 0E[ε′]=0 and E[ε′2]<∞\mathbb E[\varepsilon'^2] < \inftyE[ε′2]<∞ (§3, p. 107). Write ε=ε′/b\varepsilon = \varepsilon'/bε=ε′/b. The paper's standing assumptions (§2, p. 106) are b>0b > 0b>0, I>max⁡{a,0}I > \max\{a, 0\}I>max{a,0}, and p>cerT>sp > ce^{rT} > sp>cerT>s, where rrr is the risk-free rate.

After scaling all cash flows by 1/((p−s)b)1/((p-s)b)1/((p−s)b) (p. 110) the firm's terminal wealth without hedging is

W+ΠU(I)=W+min⁡{ST+ε, (I−a)/b}−c1I,W + \Pi_U(I) = W + \min\{S_T + \varepsilon,\ (I-a)/b\} - c_1 I,W+ΠU​(I)=W+min{ST​+ε, (I−a)/b}−c1​I,

with c1=(cerT−s)/((p−s)b)c_1 = (ce^{rT}-s)/((p-s)b)c1​=(cerT−s)/((p−s)b) and WWW the scaled initial wealth plus (p−s)a(p-s)a(p−s)a. In these units p>cerT>sp > ce^{rT} > sp>cerT>s reads 0<c10 < c_10<c1​ and c1b<1c_1 b < 1c1​b<1.

A hedge is a portfolio with time-TTT payoff XTX_TXT​ and time-0 price X0X_0X0​. The paper requires it to be a fair gamble, E[XT−X0erT]=0\mathbb E[X_T - X_0e^{rT}] = 0E[XT​−X0​erT]=0 (12), and XTX_TXT​ to be an increasing function of STS_TST​ (p. 111). If the firm shorts α\alphaα units of the hedge, its wealth is

W+ΠH(I,α)=W+min⁡{ST+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1I−αXT+αX0erT,(14)W + \Pi_H(I,\alpha) = W + \min\{S_T + \varepsilon, (I-a)/b\} - c_1 I - \alpha X_T + \alpha X_0 e^{rT}, \tag{14}W+ΠH​(I,α)=W+min{ST​+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1​I−αXT​+αX0​erT,(14)

and a decision maker with utility u:R→Ru:\mathbb R \to \mathbb Ru:R→R evaluates it by E[u(ΠH(I,α))]\mathbb E[u(\Pi_H(I,\alpha))]E[u(ΠH​(I,α))].

In Lean, the law of STS_TST​ is a probability measure ν on ℝ, the law of ε\varepsilonε is a probability measure G on ℝ, the hedge is X_T = φ S_T for a function φ : ℝ → ℝ, the forward price X0erTX_0e^{rT}X0​erT is one real x0r, and every expectation is an integral against the product measure ν.prod G. The definitions file provides unhedgedPayoff, hedgedPayoff and expUtil.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 111)

For any concave and differentiable utility function uuu, and any fixed order quantity III,

ddα E[u(ΠH(I,α))]∣α=0 ≥ 0.(15)\frac{d}{d\alpha}\,\mathbb E[u(\Pi_H(I,\alpha))]\Big|_{\alpha = 0} \ \ge\ 0. \tag{15}dαd​E[u(ΠH​(I,α))]​α=0​ ≥ 0.(15)

The Lean statement asserts that the two-sided derivative exists at α=0\alpha = 0α=0 and is nonnegative.

Milestones (proof of Proposition 5, p. 118)

  1. Derivative at α=0\alpha = 0α=0. The derivative exists and equals
E[u′(W+min⁡{ST+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1I) {−XT+X0erT}].\mathbb E\big[u'(W + \min\{S_T + \varepsilon, (I-a)/b\} - c_1I)\,\{-X_T + X_0e^{rT}\}\big].E[u′(W+min{ST​+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1​I){−XT​+X0​erT}].
  1. Covariance inequality. Since both factors decrease in STS_TST​,
E[u′(W+ΠU){−XT+X0erT}] ≥ E[u′(W+ΠU)]⋅E[−XT+X0erT]=0.\mathbb E\big[u'(W+\Pi_U)\{-X_T + X_0e^{rT}\}\big] \ \ge\ \mathbb E[u'(W+\Pi_U)]\cdot\mathbb E[-X_T + X_0e^{rT}] = 0.E[u′(W+ΠU​){−XT​+X0​erT}] ≥ E[u′(W+ΠU​)]⋅E[−XT​+X0​erT]=0.

Significance

Proposition 5 is the paper's answer to "should a risk-averse newsvendor hedge at all?": with any concave utility and any order quantity, a small short position in a fair hedge that rises with the asset price weakly increases expected utility. It needs no assumption on the shape of the utility beyond concavity, no sign of u′u'u′, and no assumption on the law of the forecast error beyond independence. It is the starting point for the paper's later results on the optimal hedge (Proposition 4) and on how hedging raises the optimal order (Propositions 6 and 7), and it is a clean instance of a general principle in operations-finance: a fair bet that is negatively correlated with marginal utility is worth taking at the margin.

The result is proved in the paper in a few lines. What this mission adds is a machine-checked version with every regularity condition explicit: the paper differentiates under the expectation and multiplies expectations without stating when this is legitimate, and conditions on STS_TST​ informally. To the best of a search of the Prove2Me catalog, neither the result nor the two steps of its proof (an integral version of Chebyshev's covariance inequality for monotone functions, and differentiation of a concave expected utility under the integral sign) is formalized there.

Difficulty

The obvious argument has two analytic gaps. First, exchanging d/dαd/d\alphad/dα with the expectation needs a dominating function, and the only integrability available is at finitely many values of α\alphaα, for both signs of α\alphaα. Second, "u′(⋅)u'(\cdot)u′(⋅) is a decreasing function of STS_TST​" is false as a statement about the pair (ST,ε)(S_T, \varepsilon)(ST​,ε): u′(W+ΠU)u'(W + \Pi_U)u′(W+ΠU​) depends on ε\varepsilonε too. The covariance step is Chebyshev's inequality for the function s↦Eε[u′(W+min⁡{s+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1I)]s \mapsto \mathbb E_\varepsilon[u'(W + \min\{s+\varepsilon, (I-a)/b\} - c_1 I)]s↦Eε​[u′(W+min{s+ε,(I−a)/b}−c1​I)] and the function s↦X0erT−XT(s)s \mapsto X_0e^{rT} - X_T(s)s↦X0​erT−XT​(s), which needs independence (Fubini on the product measure) and has to cope with the conditional expectation being finite only almost everywhere. Neither u′u'u′ nor the hedge payoff is bounded.

Formalization scope

The Lean development commits to the following conventions.

  • Random inputs are two probability measures ν (law of STS_TST​) and G (law of ε\varepsilonε) on ℝ; independence is the product measure ν.prod G. The standing assumptions E[ε]=0\mathbb E[\varepsilon] = 0E[ε]=0 and E[ε2]<∞\mathbb E[\varepsilon^2] < \inftyE[ε2]<∞ are hypotheses (∫ e, e ∂G = 0, MemLp id 2 G).
  • The scaled parameters W,a,b,c1,IW, a, b, c_1, IW,a,b,c1​,I are reals with b>0b > 0b>0, max⁡{a,0}<I\max\{a,0\} < Imax{a,0}<I, 0<c10 < c_10<c1​, c1b<1c_1 b < 1c1​b<1.
  • The hedge is φ : ℝ → ℝ, monotone (nondecreasing, reading the paper's "increasing" weakly), measurable and ν-integrable; the fair-gamble condition (12) is ∫ s, φ s ∂ν = x0r. The paper's further remark that XTX_TXT​ is piecewise continuous and a.e. differentiable is not needed and not imposed.
  • The utility is u : ℝ → ℝ with ConcaveOn ℝ Set.univ u and Differentiable ℝ u, exactly "concave and differentiable"; no monotonicity of uuu is assumed.
  • Regularity hypotheses, disclosed: for some δ>0\delta > 0δ>0 the utility u(W+ΠH(I,α))u(W + \Pi_H(I,\alpha))u(W+ΠH​(I,α)) is integrable at α∈{−δ,0,δ}\alpha \in \{-\delta, 0, \delta\}α∈{−δ,0,δ}, and u′(W+ΠU)u'(W + \Pi_U)u′(W+ΠU​) is integrable. The paper uses these silently.

A statement of the form 0 ≤ deriv (fun α => expUtil …) 0 would be trivially true whenever the derivative fails to exist (Lean's deriv returns 0 there); the goal instead asserts HasDerivAt with a value D and 0 ≤ D. The hypotheses are satisfiable with a non-constant hedge: a sorry-free check uses u(w)=−e−wu(w) = -e^{-w}u(w)=−e−w, STS_TST​ uniform on {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}, ε\varepsilonε uniform on {−1,1}\{-1,1\}{−1,1} and XT=STX_T = S_TXT​=ST​.

Infrastructure that a complete proof needs, reusable beyond this mission: Chebyshev's integral (covariance) inequality for two monotone functions of a real random variable; differentiation under the integral sign for concave integrands with integrability at three points; Fubini-based conditioning on one coordinate of a product measure. Contributions of these general lemmas as separate theorems are welcome. The source PDF is a scan of the published article.

Selected references

  • V. Gaur, S. Seshadri, Hedging Inventory Risk Through Market Instruments, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 7(2):103–120, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1040.0061
  • K. J. Arrow, Essays in the Theory of Risk-Bearing, Markham, 1971 (absolute risk aversion, cited on p. 111 of the paper).
  • M. S. Kimball, Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large, Econometrica 58(1):53–73, 1990. https://doi.org/10.2307/2938334
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control II: With a Scalar State and Deterministic Coefficients, Coupled Riccati Equations Give an Explicit Linear Feedback EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

In a time-inconsistent control problem, a control that is optimal when planned at time ttt stops being optimal when the problem is re-solved at a later time. Two sources of time inconsistency are common in finance and economics. One is a variance term in the objective, as in continuous-time Markowitz mean–variance portfolio selection (Zhou–Li 2000; Basak–Chabakauri 2010). The other is a state-dependent target, as in Björk–Murgoci–Zhou 2014. Dynamic programming does not apply. A standard response is to look for an equilibrium: a control that no planner at any time ttt can improve by an infinitesimal deviation on [t,t+ε)[t,t+\varepsilon)[t,t+ε).

Hu, Jin and Zhou define open-loop equilibria for a general stochastic linear–quadratic (LQ) problem with both sources of time inconsistency. They give a sufficient condition through a flow of forward–backward SDEs, which is the subject of mission I of this series. This mission covers §4 of the paper: the scalar-state case with deterministic coefficients, where the equilibrium is computed explicitly from a system of coupled Riccati equations. Mission III covers §5, the mean–variance application with random coefficients.

Setting

On a probability space carrying a standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion WWW with its filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​), the state XXX is scalar (n=1n=1n=1) and the control uuu takes values in Rl\mathbb R^lRl:

dXs=[AsXs+Bs′us+bs] ds+[CsXs+Dsus+σs]′ dWs,X0=x0.dX_s=[A_sX_s+B_s'u_s+b_s]\,ds+[C_sX_s+D_su_s+\sigma_s]'\,dW_s,\qquad X_0=x_0.dXs​=[As​Xs​+Bs′​us​+bs​]ds+[Cs​Xs​+Ds​us​+σs​]′dWs​,X0​=x0​.

The coefficients are deterministic functions on [0,T][0,T][0,T]: As,bs,Qs∈RA_s,b_s,Q_s\in\mathbb RAs​,bs​,Qs​∈R, Bs∈RlB_s\in\mathbb R^lBs​∈Rl, Cs,σs∈RdC_s,\sigma_s\in\mathbb R^dCs​,σs​∈Rd, Ds∈Rd×lD_s\in\mathbb R^{d\times l}Ds​∈Rd×l and Rs∈Rl×lR_s\in\mathbb R^{l\times l}Rs​∈Rl×l symmetric. A,B,C,D,Q,RA,B,C,D,Q,RA,B,C,D,Q,R are bounded, b,σb,\sigmab,σ are square integrable, Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0, R⪰0R\succeq0R⪰0, and G≥0G\ge0G≥0. At time ttt, in state xtx_txt​, the planner evaluates

J(t,xt;u)=12Et ⁣∫tT ⁣(QsXs2+⟨Rsus,us⟩)ds+12Et[GXT2]−h2(Et[XT])2−(μ1xt+μ2) Et[XT],J(t,x_t;u)=\tfrac12\mathbb E_t\!\int_t^T\!\big(Q_sX_s^2+\langle R_su_s,u_s\rangle\big)ds+\tfrac12\mathbb E_t[GX_T^2]-\tfrac h2\big(\mathbb E_t[X_T]\big)^2-(\mu_1x_t+\mu_2)\,\mathbb E_t[X_T],J(t,xt​;u)=21​Et​∫tT​(Qs​Xs2​+⟨Rs​us​,us​⟩)ds+21​Et​[GXT2​]−2h​(Et​[XT​])2−(μ1​xt​+μ2​)Et​[XT​],

where Et=E[ ⋅∣Ft]\mathbb E_t=\mathbb E[\,\cdot\mid\mathcal F_t]Et​=E[⋅∣Ft​]. The third term (the variance-like term) and the fourth term (which depends on xtx_txt​) make the problem time-inconsistent. A control u∗u^*u∗ with state X∗X^*X∗ is an equilibrium (Definition 2.1) if, for every t∈[0,T)t\in[0,T)t∈[0,T) and every Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable square-integrable vvv, the spike ut,ε,v=u∗+v1[t,t+ε)u^{t,\varepsilon,v}=u^*+v\mathbf 1_{[t,t+\varepsilon)}ut,ε,v=u∗+v1[t,t+ε)​ satisfies

lim inf⁡ε↓0J(t,Xt∗;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗;u∗)ε≥0.\liminf_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\frac{J(t,X^*_t;u^{t,\varepsilon,v})-J(t,X^*_t;u^*)}{\varepsilon}\ge0.ε↓0liminf​εJ(t,Xt∗​;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗​;u∗)​≥0.

With Γs(1)=μ1e∫sTAr dr\Gamma^{(1)}_s=\mu_1e^{\int_s^TA_r\,dr}Γs(1)​=μ1​e∫sT​Ar​dr, ∣C∣2=C′C|C|^2=C'C∣C∣2=C′C and K=(R+MD′D)−1K=(R+MD'D)^{-1}K=(R+MD′D)−1, the coupled Riccati system (4.9) for deterministic (M,N)(M,N)(M,N) is

M˙=−[2A+∣C∣2+Γ(1)B′K(B+D′C)]M−Q+(B+D′C)′K(B+D′C)M2−B′K(B+D′C)MN,MT=G,N˙=−[2A+Γ(1)B′KB]N+B′K(B+D′C)MN−B′KBN2,NT=h.\begin{aligned}\dot M&=-\big[2A+|C|^2+\Gamma^{(1)}B'K(B+D'C)\big]M-Q+(B+D'C)'K(B+D'C)M^2-B'K(B+D'C)MN,& M_T&=G,\\ \dot N&=-\big[2A+\Gamma^{(1)}B'KB\big]N+B'K(B+D'C)MN-B'KBN^2,& N_T&=h.\end{aligned}M˙N˙​=−[2A+∣C∣2+Γ(1)B′K(B+D′C)]M−Q+(B+D′C)′K(B+D′C)M2−B′K(B+D′C)MN,=−[2A+Γ(1)B′KB]N+B′K(B+D′C)MN−B′KBN2,​MT​NT​​=G,=h.​

Given (M,N)(M,N)(M,N), a linear ODE (4.8) determines Φ\PhiΦ with ΦT=−μ2\Phi_T=-\mu_2ΦT​=−μ2​. The candidate equilibrium is the linear feedback (4.4)

us∗=αsXs∗+βs,αs=−Ks[(Ms−Ns−Γs(1))Bs+MsDs′Cs],βs=−Ks(ΦsBs+MsDs′σs).u^*_s=\alpha_sX^*_s+\beta_s,\quad\alpha_s=-K_s\big[(M_s-N_s-\Gamma^{(1)}_s)B_s+M_sD_s'C_s\big],\quad\beta_s=-K_s(\Phi_sB_s+M_sD_s'\sigma_s).us∗​=αs​Xs∗​+βs​,αs​=−Ks​[(Ms​−Ns​−Γs(1)​)Bs​+Ms​Ds′​Cs​],βs​=−Ks​(Φs​Bs​+Ms​Ds′​σs​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.4

Suppose G≥h>0G\ge h>0G≥h>0 and one of three cases holds:

  • (i) R⪰δIR\succeq\delta IR⪰δI, QD′D+∣C∣2Rl+Γ(1)S(D′CB′)⪰0\frac{QD'D+|C|^2R}{l}+\Gamma^{(1)}\mathcal S(D'CB')\succeq0lQD′D+∣C∣2R​+Γ(1)S(D′CB′)⪰0 and B=λD′CB=\lambda D'CB=λD′C with λ≥0\lambda\ge0λ≥0;
  • (ii) the first two conditions of (i) and D′D⪰δID'D\succeq\delta ID′D⪰δI;
  • (iii) R≡0R\equiv0R≡0, D′D⪰δID'D\succeq\delta ID′D⪰δI, Q+Γ(1)B′(D′D)−1(B+D′C)≥0Q+\Gamma^{(1)}B'(D'D)^{-1}(B+D'C)\ge0Q+Γ(1)B′(D′D)−1(B+D′C)≥0 and Q+Γ(1)B′(D′D)−1D′C≥0Q+\Gamma^{(1)}B'(D'D)^{-1}D'C\ge0Q+Γ(1)B′(D′D)−1D′C≥0.

Then

(4.9) has a unique positive solution pair (M,N) on [0,T],\text{(4.9) has a unique positive solution pair }(M,N)\text{ on }[0,T],(4.9) has a unique positive solution pair (M,N) on [0,T],

and, for every solution Φ\PhiΦ of (4.8), the closed-loop equation of (4.4) has a solution, and the feedback control along every closed-loop state is an equilibrium.

Milestones

  • Proposition 4.1: a positive solution (M,J)(M,J)(M,J) of the transformed system (4.10) gives the positive solution (M,M/J)(M,M/J)(M,M/J) of (4.9).
  • Theorem 4.2: existence and uniqueness of positive solutions of (4.10) and (4.9) in the standard case R⪰δIR\succeq\delta IR⪰δI.
  • Theorem 4.3: existence for (4.13) and (4.9) in the singular case R≡0R\equiv0R≡0.
  • Three steps from the proof of Theorem 4.4:
    • α\alphaα is bounded, so u∗u^*u∗ is admissible and X∗X^*X∗ has continuous paths with Esup⁡s∣Xs∗∣2<∞\mathbb E\sup_s|X^*_s|^2<\inftyEsups​∣Xs∗​∣2<∞;
    • the ansatz p(s;t)=MsXs∗−NsEt[Xs∗]−Γs(1)Xt∗+Φsp(s;t)=M_sX^*_s-N_s\mathbb E_t[X^*_s]-\Gamma^{(1)}_sX^*_t+\Phi_sp(s;t)=Ms​Xs∗​−Ns​Et​[Xs∗​]−Γs(1)​Xt∗​+Φs​, k(s;t)=Ms[CsXs∗+Dsus∗+σs]k(s;t)=M_s[C_sX^*_s+D_su^*_s+\sigma_s]k(s;t)=Ms​[Cs​Xs∗​+Ds​us∗​+σs​] solves the adjoint flow (3.10);
    • the identity Λ(s;t)=Ns[Xs∗−EtXs∗]Bs+Γs(1)(Xs∗−Xt∗)Bs\Lambda(s;t)=N_s[X^*_s-\mathbb E_tX^*_s]B_s+\Gamma^{(1)}_s(X^*_s-X^*_t)B_sΛ(s;t)=Ns​[Xs∗​−Et​Xs∗​]Bs​+Γs(1)​(Xs∗​−Xt∗​)Bs​ holds, and Λ\LambdaΛ satisfies condition (3.4).

Significance

The theorem gives an equilibrium in closed form, as a linear feedback of the current state with deterministic gains. That makes the equilibrium computable and comparable with the classical, time-consistent LQ regulator. Setting h=μ1=0h=\mu_1=0h=μ1​=0 recovers a standard LQ problem, but (4.9) differs from the classical Riccati equation even then: it is a nonsymmetric coupled system (footnote 2, p. 10), and the cases (i)–(iii) are the conditions under which it is solvable. The mean–variance results of §5 (mission III) follow the same pattern.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been formalized. A formal proof needs global existence for a nonlinear, nonautonomous ODE system with Carathéodory coefficients, obtained by truncation and a priori bounds. It also needs linear SDEs with bounded feedback, Itô calculus for products of deterministic and Itô processes, and the sufficient condition of mission I. Uniqueness in case (iii) is claimed by Theorem 4.4 but not proved in Theorem 4.3; it is part of the goal.

Difficulty

The system (4.9) is quadratic in (M,N)(M,N)(M,N). Its solutions can blow up in finite time, and (R+MD′D)−1(R+MD'D)^{-1}(R+MD′D)−1 can degenerate when MMM changes sign. Picard–Lindelöf therefore gives only local solutions, and a global solution needs a priori bounds 0<η≤M≤L0<\eta\le M\le L0<η≤M≤L and J≥1J\ge1J≥1, with η\etaη and LLL independent of the truncation level. Those bounds are where the case hypotheses enter. In the stochastic half, the equilibrium property is not proved by computing JJJ directly. It requires checking that the explicit candidate meets the flow-of-FBSDE sufficient condition, and the flow carries a parameter ttt and the conditional expectations Et[Xs∗]\mathbb E_t[X^*_s]Et​[Xs∗​] for every s≥ts\ge ts≥t.

Formalization scope

The general model (data, standing assumptions, states, conditional cost, spike, equilibrium) is stated for arbitrary nnn and instantiated at n=1n=1n=1 through toData. It is built on the published substrate Peng1990_SMP_Stochastic (Brownian motion, natural filtration, LF2L^2_{\mathcal F}LF2​, Itô integrals, SDE solutions). The formalization commits to the following choices.

  • Definition 2.1 uses lim inf⁡\liminfliminf in R‾\overline{\mathbb R}R, along every sequence εk↓0\varepsilon_k\downarrow0εk​↓0, almost surely for each sequence, and for every version of the state and of the perturbed states. The page writes lim⁡\limlim, which need not exist.
  • The filtration is the natural, uncompleted filtration of WWW, not the augmented one.
  • The state from time ttt is encoded through the full horizon. The spike is additive on [t,t+ε)[t,t+\varepsilon)[t,t+ε).
  • "Essentially bounded" and "a.s., a.e." are read dP⊗dsd\mathbb P\otimes dsdP⊗ds-a.e.
  • Every ODE ((4.8), (4.9), (4.10), (4.13)) is stated in integral form on [0,T][0,T][0,T], because the coefficients are only bounded measurable. A solution includes invertibility of R+MD′DR+MD'DR+MD′D (resp. D′DD'DD′D) on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Uniqueness means agreement on [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • The constants δ,λ\delta,\lambdaδ,λ are uniform in sss, and the case conditions hold for every s∈[0,T]s\in[0,T]s∈[0,T]. In QD′D+∣C∣2Rl\frac{QD'D+|C|^2R}{l}lQD′D+∣C∣2R​, lll is the control dimension.
  • "Let Φ\PhiΦ be a solution of (4.8)" means every solution. "u∗u^*u∗ is an equilibrium" means that a closed-loop state exists and that the feedback is an equilibrium along every closed-loop state.
  • Conditional-expectation families Et[Xs∗]\mathbb E_t[X^*_s]Et​[Xs∗​] are handled through arbitrary progressive versions. Condition (3.4) is stated exactly: its first part as a localization on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-sets, its second part with a jointly measurable version and "a.e. sss".
  • The paper's "β\betaβ uniformly bounded" is false when σ\sigmaσ is only square integrable. The milestone states the true claim: α\alphaα is essentially bounded on [0,T][0,T][0,T] (the coefficients are only essentially bounded) and β\betaβ is square integrable.

The goal's conclusion is Definition 2.1 itself; it does not mention Λ\LambdaΛ, ppp or (3.4). Existence of the closed-loop state is asserted, not assumed. A formalization that assumes existence, or that replaces equilibrium by condition (3.4), is a different and weaker theorem.

Theorem 3.3 (the n=1n=1n=1 sufficient condition) is not posed here. Under the shared model it is mission I's goal at n=1n=1n=1. Contributions are welcome on the ODE layer (truncation, comparison and Gronwall bounds for Carathéodory systems), on linear SDEs with bounded feedback, and on the Itô product rule. These parts are reusable well beyond this paper.

Selected references

  • Y. Hu, H. Jin, X. Y. Zhou, Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control, arXiv:1111.0818v1, 2011; SIAM J. Control Optim. 50(3), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0818
  • T. Björk, A. Murgoci, X. Y. Zhou, Mean–variance portfolio optimization with state-dependent risk aversion, Mathematical Finance 24(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2011.00515.x
  • S. Basak, G. Chabakauri, Dynamic mean–variance asset allocation, Review of Financial Studies 23(8), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq028
  • X. Y. Zhou, D. Li, Continuous-time mean–variance portfolio selection: a stochastic LQ framework, Applied Mathematics and Optimization 42, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002450010003
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
  • J. Yong, X. Y. Zhou, Stochastic Controls: Hamiltonian Systems and HJB Equations, Springer, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1466-3
  • Missions I and III of this series: the sufficient condition (Theorem 3.2) and the mean–variance equilibrium (Theorem 5.4).
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Matroid Prophet Inequalities 2: On an Intersection of p Matroids, the Summed-Threshold Algorithm Earns at Least 1/(4p−2) of the Expected OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

A prophet inequality compares a gambler who sees independent random rewards one at a time, and must accept or reject each on arrival, with a prophet who sees all rewards in advance. The classical inequality of Krengel, Sucheston and Garling (1977–78, as cited in the paper) says that when only one reward may be kept, a single threshold rule earns at least half of E[max⁡iXi]\mathbb E[\max_i X_i]E[maxi​Xi​], and Samuel-Cahn (1984) showed that the threshold can be chosen as a median. Such statements are the analytical core of sequential posted-price mechanisms: Hajiaghayi, Kleinberg and Sandholm (2007) observed that threshold rules are truthful online auctions, and Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (2010) showed that sequential posted prices approximate the optimal Bayesian revenue in many settings, with prophet inequalities for the feasibility constraint as the key technique.

When several items may be accepted subject to a combinatorial constraint, the natural constraints in this application are matroids (for example, at most kkk items, or at most one item per group) and intersections of matroids (for example, bipartite matchings, which are intersections of two partition matroids). Kleinberg and Weinberg (STOC 2012) proved that for every matroid there is an online algorithm with expected payoff at least half of the expected maximum-weight basis, and that for the intersection of ppp matroids the summed version of the same algorithm earns at least 14p−2\frac{1}{4p-2}4p−21​ of the expected optimum. This mission formalizes the second result.

Timeline:

  • 1977–78: Krengel–Sucheston and Garling, single-choice prophet inequality with factor 2.
  • 1984: Samuel-Cahn, the median threshold rule attains factor 2.
  • 2007: Hajiaghayi–Kleinberg–Sandholm, threshold rules from prophet inequalities read as truthful online auction mechanisms.
  • 2010: Chawla–Hartline–Malec–Sivan, sequential posted pricing; factor 2 for matroids when the algorithm may choose the order in which elements are observed.
  • 2012: Kleinberg–Weinberg, factor 2 for matroids and 4p−24p-24p−2 for intersections of ppp matroids, against online weight-adaptive adversaries.

Setting

A finite ground set U\mathcal UU carries p≥1p \ge 1p≥1 matroids M1,…,Mp\mathcal M_1,\dots,\mathcal M_pM1​,…,Mp​ with independent sets I1,…,Ip\mathcal I_1,\dots,\mathcal I_pI1​,…,Ip​ and closure operators cl1,…,clp\mathrm{cl}_1,\dots,\mathrm{cl}_pcl1​,…,clp​. A set is feasible if it lies in I=⋂jIj\mathcal I = \bigcap_j \mathcal I_jI=⋂j​Ij​. Each element xxx has a random weight w(x)≥0w(x) \ge 0w(x)≥0; the weights are independent and w(x)w(x)w(x) has law FxF_xFx​. For a set SSS, w(S)=∑x∈Sw(x)w(S) = \sum_{x \in S} w(x)w(S)=∑x∈S​w(x), OPT(w)=max⁡{w(S):S∈I}\mathrm{OPT}(w) = \max\{w(S) : S \in \mathcal I\}OPT(w)=max{w(S):S∈I}, and OPT=E[OPT(w)]\mathrm{OPT} = \mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(w)]OPT=E[OPT(w)].

An online weight-adaptive adversary reveals the elements one at a time; it chooses the iii-th element xix_ixi​ after learning w(x1),…,w(xi−1)w(x_1),\dots,w(x_{i-1})w(x1​),…,w(xi−1​), but without knowing w(xi)w(x_i)w(xi​) or any other unrevealed weight. A threshold algorithm offers xix_ixi​ a threshold TiT_iTi​ computed from what has been revealed and from the set Ai−1A_{i-1}Ai−1​ already selected, and selects xix_ixi​ exactly when Ai−1∪{xi}∈IA_{i-1}\cup\{x_i\}\in\mathcal IAi−1​∪{xi​}∈I and w(xi)≥Tiw(x_i) \ge T_iw(xi​)≥Ti​.

The algorithm of the paper uses a ghost sample w′w'w′, an independent copy of www. Let BBB be a w′w'w′-maximum feasible set. For a set AAA and each jjj, Rj(A)⊆B∖AR_j(A) \subseteq B \setminus ARj​(A)⊆B∖A is a set of maximum w′w'w′-weight with A∪Rj(A)∈IjA \cup R_j(A) \in \mathcal I_jA∪Rj​(A)∈Ij​ and B⊆clj(A∪Rj(A))B \subseteq \mathrm{cl}_j(A \cup R_j(A))B⊆clj​(A∪Rj​(A)), and Cj(A)=B∖Rj(A)C_j(A) = B \setminus R_j(A)Cj​(A)=B∖Rj​(A). Put R(A)=⋂jRj(A)R(A) = \bigcap_j R_j(A)R(A)=⋂j​Rj​(A) and C(A)=⋃jCj(A)C(A) = \bigcup_j C_j(A)C(A)=⋃j​Cj​(A). For a parameter α\alphaα, the summed thresholds are

T(A,i)=∑j=1p1α Ew′[w′(Rj(A))−w′(Rj(A∪{xi}))],T(A,i) = \sum_{j=1}^p \frac1\alpha\, \mathbb E_{w'}\big[w'(R_j(A)) - w'(R_j(A \cup \{x_i\}))\big],T(A,i)=j=1∑p​α1​Ew′​[w′(Rj​(A))−w′(Rj​(A∪{xi​}))],

and the algorithm of §4.2 uses Ti=T(Ai−1,i)T_i = T(A_{i-1}, i)Ti​=T(Ai−1​,i). An algorithm has α\alphaα-balanced thresholds (Definition 3) if, for every input sequence with selected set AAA and every VVV disjoint from AAA with A∪V∈IA \cup V \in \mathcal IA∪V∈I,

∑xi∈ATi≥1αE[∑jw′(Cj(A))],∑xi∈VTi≤1αE[∑jw′(Rj(A))].\sum_{x_i\in A} T_i \ge \frac1\alpha \mathbb E\Big[\sum_j w'(C_j(A))\Big], \qquad \sum_{x_i\in V} T_i \le \frac1\alpha \mathbb E\Big[\sum_j w'(R_j(A))\Big].xi​∈A∑​Ti​≥α1​E[j∑​w′(Cj​(A))],xi​∈V∑​Ti​≤α1​E[j∑​w′(Rj​(A))].

Formalization targets

Goal: the prophet inequality for ppp matroids

For every p≥1p \ge 1p≥1, all matroids M1,…,Mp\mathcal M_1,\dots,\mathcal M_pM1​,…,Mp​ on U\mathcal UU, all laws FxF_xFx​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite means, and every online weight-adaptive adversary, the algorithm of §4.2 with α=2p\alpha = 2pα=2p selects a set AAA with

E[w(A)]≥14p−2 E[OPT(w)].\mathbb E[w(A)] \ge \frac{1}{4p-2}\, \mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(w)].E[w(A)]≥4p−21​E[OPT(w)].

For p=1p = 1p=1 this is the factor-2 matroid prophet inequality.

Proposition 3

If a threshold algorithm has α\alphaα-balanced thresholds for some α≥2\alpha \ge 2α≥2, then against every online weight-adaptive adversary

E[w(A)]≥α−pα(α−1) OPT.\mathbb E[w(A)] \ge \frac{\alpha - p}{\alpha(\alpha-1)}\, \mathrm{OPT}.E[w(A)]≥α(α−1)α−p​OPT.

Milestones

Proposition 2 for each matroid Mj\mathcal M_jMj​; the identity between the two forms of T(A,i,j)T(A,i,j)T(A,i,j); properties (13) and (14) for the summed thresholds; the identities (20)–(21); and the inequalities (23)–(24) of Appendix A. Together with Proposition 3 these give the goal.

Significance

The bound gives a posted-price style selection rule for any feasibility constraint that is an intersection of ppp matroids, with a guarantee depending only on ppp; the paper's §5 shows that a ratio of order ppp is necessary. Section 6 of the paper turns the result into sequential posted-price mechanisms for multi-dimensional mechanism design, and that application needs the guarantee against the online weight-adaptive adversary, not only against a fixed order. The reduction "balanced thresholds imply an approximation" (Proposition 3) is reusable for other threshold constructions.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists. The mission produces a formal proof of the 14p−2\frac{1}{4p-2}4p−21​ guarantee, with the probabilistic part (the ghost-sample argument against an adaptive adversary) and the combinatorial part (the per-matroid exchange inequality) as separate milestones. The paper justifies the per-matroid use of Proposition 2 in one paragraph; because BBB maximizes w′w'w′ over the intersection rather than over Ij\mathcal I_jIj​, the description of Rj(A)R_j(A)Rj​(A) as a maximum-weight basis of a contraction (Lemma 2 in the single-matroid case) does not apply verbatim, and the formal proof of that milestone is not a copy of the paper's single-matroid argument.

Difficulty

Two steps do not follow from routine bookkeeping. First, the inequality (23) compares the gambler's surplus, collected along an order that the adversary adapts to the realized weights, with the ghost sample's surplus on the random set R(A)R(A)R(A). The index xix_ixi​ revealed at step iii is itself random, so the step "the weight of the element offered next is distributed as its ghost weight" has to be justified for an adaptively chosen index under a product measure; it fails for an adversary that may look at unrevealed weights. Second, the paper obtains (14) by applying the single-matroid Proposition 2 to each Mj\mathcal M_jMj​, but its proof of Proposition 2 describes R(A)R(A)R(A) as a maximum-weight basis of a contraction, which uses that BBB is optimal for the matroid in question. Here BBB is optimal only for the intersection I\mathcal II, so the obvious transfer of the single-matroid argument does not go through as written and the per-matroid statement needs its own proof.

Formalization scope

The ground set is a Fintype; the matroids are Mathlib's Matroid α, indexed by Fin p, each with ground set Set.univ; sets are Finset α. Weights are functions α → ℝ, the weight law is Measure.pi F, and every theorem assumes each F x is a probability measure with F x (Iio 0) = 0 and a finite mean. Expectations are Bochner integrals; under these assumptions every integrand is integrable. Ties in the maximizers BBB and Rj(A)R_j(A)Rj​(A) are broken by a fixed rule that does not depend on the weights. Rj(A)R_j(A)Rj​(A) is taken disjoint from AAA. The threshold ∞\infty∞ on infeasible steps is a feasibility test in the selection rule. Adversaries and generic threshold rules are deterministic, see only revealed weights, and are measurable in them; randomized adversaries are mixtures of deterministic ones. Generic thresholds in Proposition 3, (23) and (24) are non-negative, as in the paper's Ti∈R+∪{∞}T_i \in \mathbb R_+ \cup \{\infty\}Ti​∈R+​∪{∞}.

The goal fixes the thresholds to the summed thresholds of §4.2 with α=2p\alpha = 2pα=2p, computed from the ghost-sample objects. A version in which the thresholds are free parameters assumed to satisfy (13)–(14) would be Proposition 3 itself and is ruled out; conversely, Proposition 3 does not mention the §4.2 thresholds.

A complete development needs: elementary facts about maximizers over finite families; matroid exchange properties (a bijective exchange between equal-size independent sets, available in Schrijver's book but not in Mathlib); submodularity of weighted-rank-type functions; and the independence argument for adaptively chosen indices under a product measure. The last two are reusable beyond this mission, as is Proposition 3. Proofs of individual milestones and of these auxiliary facts are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Kleinberg, S. M. Weinberg, Matroid Prophet Inequalities, STOC 2012; arXiv:1201.4764v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4764, https://doi.org/10.1145/2213977.2213991
  • U. Krengel, L. Sucheston, Semiamarts and finite values, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 83 (1977), 745–747.
  • E. Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Ann. Probab. 12 (1984). https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176993150
  • M. T. Hajiaghayi, R. Kleinberg, T. Sandholm, Automated online mechanism design and prophet inequalities, Proc. 22nd AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2007, pp. 58–65.
  • S. Chawla, J. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter mechanism design and sequential posted pricing, STOC 2010, pp. 311–320; arXiv:0907.2435. https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.2435
  • A. Schrijver, Combinatorial Optimization: Polyhedra and Efficiency, Springer 2003 (Corollary 39.12a).
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control III: Explicit Equilibrium Mean–Variance Strategy with State-Dependent Risk Aversion and a Random Risk PremiumResearch Paper

Motivation

Mean–variance portfolio selection (Markowitz, 1952) trades off the expected terminal wealth of an investor against its variance. In a dynamic setting the problem is time-inconsistent: the variance is not a conditional expectation of a function of terminal wealth, so the dynamic-programming principle fails, and a strategy that is optimal when computed at time 000 is no longer optimal when re-evaluated at a later time. A standard response is to treat the investor at each time ttt as a separate player and to look for a subgame-perfect equilibrium strategy, which no future self wishes to deviate from locally (Björk–Murgoci, Ekeland–Lazrak, and others).

Hu, Jin and Zhou (arXiv:1111.0818v1; SIAM J. Control Optim. 50(3), 2012) define open-loop equilibria for a general class of time-inconsistent stochastic linear–quadratic (LQ) problems and characterize them through a flow of forward–backward SDEs. Their §5 applies this to mean–variance investment in a complete market with a random risk premium, where the weight on expected wealth depends on current wealth (a state-dependent risk aversion, motivated in Björk–Murgoci–Zhou, 2014). Earlier equilibrium results for mean–variance investment (Basak–Chabakauri, 2010; Björk–Murgoci–Zhou) work with deterministic or Markovian coefficients and within feedback classes.

This mission is the third of a series on the paper. Mission I formalizes the general sufficient condition (Theorem 3.2); Mission II treats deterministic coefficients and coupled Riccati equations (Theorem 4.4). This mission targets the explicit mean–variance equilibrium of Theorem 5.4.

Setting

Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0 and a probability space carrying a standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion WWW with its filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​); write Et=E[ ⋅ ∣Ft]E_t=E[\,\cdot\,|\mathcal F_t]Et​=E[⋅∣Ft​]. The market has a deterministic bounded interest rate rrr and a progressively measurable, essentially bounded risk premium θ\thetaθ with values in Rd\mathbb R^dRd. A strategy is a progressively measurable uuu with E∫0T∣us∣2ds<∞E\int_0^T|u_s|^2ds<\inftyE∫0T​∣us​∣2ds<∞ (the class LF2(0,T;Rd)L^2_{\mathcal F}(0,T;\mathbb R^d)LF2​(0,T;Rd)); the wealth XXX under uuu solves

dXs=rsXs ds+θs′us ds+us′ dWs,X0=x0.(5.2)dX_s=r_sX_s\,ds+\theta_s'u_s\,ds+u_s'\,dW_s,\qquad X_0=x_0 .\tag{5.2}dXs​=rs​Xs​ds+θs′​us​ds+us′​dWs​,X0​=x0​.(5.2)

At time ttt, with current wealth xtx_txt​, the investor's cost is

J(t,xt;u)=12Vart(XT)−(μ1xt+μ2)Et[XT],μ1≥0.(5.3)J(t,x_t;u)=\tfrac12\mathrm{Var}_t(X_T)-(\mu_1x_t+\mu_2)E_t[X_T],\qquad\mu_1\ge0 .\tag{5.3}J(t,xt​;u)=21​Vart​(XT​)−(μ1​xt​+μ2​)Et​[XT​],μ1​≥0.(5.3)

This is the case n=1n=1n=1 of the paper's general LQ problem, with A=rA=rA=r, B=θB=\thetaB=θ, C=0C=0C=0, D=ID=ID=I, Q=R=0Q=R=0Q=R=0, G=h=1G=h=1G=h=1; the mission states it that way. For t∈[0,T)t\in[0,T)t∈[0,T), ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and an Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-measurable square-integrable vvv, the spike ust,ε,v=us+v 1[t,t+ε)(s)u^{t,\varepsilon,v}_s=u_s+v\,\mathbf 1_{[t,t+\varepsilon)}(s)ust,ε,v​=us​+v1[t,t+ε)​(s) perturbs uuu on a short window. A strategy u∗u^*u∗ with wealth X∗X^*X∗ is an equilibrium (Definition 2.1) if, for all such ttt and vvv,

lim inf⁡ε↓0J(t,Xt∗;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗;u∗)ε≥0a.s.\liminf_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\frac{J(t,X^*_t;u^{t,\varepsilon,v})-J(t,X^*_t;u^*)}{\varepsilon}\ge0\quad\text{a.s.}ε↓0liminf​εJ(t,Xt∗​;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗​;u∗)​≥0a.s.

The equilibrium is built from Γs(1)=μ1e∫sTr\Gamma^{(1)}_s=\mu_1e^{\int_s^Tr}Γs(1)​=μ1​e∫sT​r, Γs=−μ2e∫sTr\Gamma_s=-\mu_2e^{\int_s^Tr}Γs​=−μ2​e∫sT​r, and two backward SDEs: an indefinite stochastic Riccati equation for (M,U)(M,U)(M,U),

dMs=−(2rsMs−Us′θs+Γs(1)∣θs∣2−Ms−1∣Us∣2+Γs(1)Ms−1Us′θs)ds+Us′ dWs,MT=1,(5.8)dM_s=-\big(2r_sM_s-U_s'\theta_s+\Gamma^{(1)}_s|\theta_s|^2-M_s^{-1}|U_s|^2+\Gamma^{(1)}_sM_s^{-1}U_s'\theta_s\big)ds+U_s'\,dW_s,\quad M_T=1,\tag{5.8}dMs​=−(2rs​Ms​−Us′​θs​+Γs(1)​∣θs​∣2−Ms−1​∣Us​∣2+Γs(1)​Ms−1​Us′​θs​)ds+Us′​dWs​,MT​=1,(5.8)

and a linear BSDE (5.13) for (Γ(2),γ(2))(\Gamma^{(2)},\gamma^{(2)})(Γ(2),γ(2)) whose coefficients involve MMM and UUU. A process ZZZ gives a BMO martingale Z⋅WZ\cdot WZ⋅W if E[∫τT∣Zs∣2ds ∣ Fτ]≤CE[\int_\tau^T|Z_s|^2ds\,|\,\mathcal F_\tau]\le CE[∫τT​∣Zs​∣2ds∣Fτ​]≤C for all stopping times τ≤T\tau\le Tτ≤T.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.4

If (M,U)(M,U)(M,U) solves (5.8) with MMM bounded and M≥c>0M\ge c>0M≥c>0, and (Γ(2),γ(2))(\Gamma^{(2)},\gamma^{(2)})(Γ(2),γ(2)) solves (5.13) with Γ(2)\Gamma^{(2)}Γ(2) bounded, then

us∗=−Ms−1[(Us−θsμ1e∫sTrv dv)Xs∗+Γsθs+γs(2)]u^*_s=-M_s^{-1}\Big[\big(U_s-\theta_s\mu_1e^{\int_s^Tr_v\,dv}\big)X^*_s+\Gamma_s\theta_s+\gamma^{(2)}_s\Big]us∗​=−Ms−1​[(Us​−θs​μ1​e∫sT​rv​dv)Xs∗​+Γs​θs​+γs(2)​]

is an equilibrium: the closed-loop wealth exists, and for every closed-loop wealth X∗X^*X∗ the strategy u∗u^*u∗ satisfies Definition 2.1.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 5.1: (5.8) has a unique solution in L∞×L2L^\infty\times L^2L∞×L2 with M≥c>0M\ge c>0M≥c>0, and U⋅WU\cdot WU⋅W is BMO.
  2. Proposition 5.2: (5.13) has a unique solution in L∞×L2L^\infty\times L^2L∞×L2, and γ(2)⋅W\gamma^{(2)}\cdot Wγ(2)⋅W is BMO.
  3. Proposition 5.3: the closed-loop wealth under the feedback exists with continuous paths, Esup⁡t∣Xt∗∣2<∞E\sup_t|X^*_t|^2<\inftyEsupt​∣Xt∗​∣2<∞, and u∗∈L2u^*\in L^2u∗∈L2.
  4. Proof of Theorem 5.4: the processes p(s;t)p(s;t)p(s;t), k(s;t)k(s;t)k(s;t) of (5.5) and (5.7) solve the adjoint equation (5.4), Λ(s;t)=p(s;t)θs+k(s;t)\Lambda(s;t)=p(s;t)\theta_s+k(s;t)Λ(s;t)=p(s;t)θs​+k(s;t) has the closed form displayed on p. 22, and Λ\LambdaΛ meets condition (3.4).

Significance

Theorem 5.4 gives the equilibrium of a time-inconsistent mean–variance investor in closed form, linear in current wealth, for a random risk premium. With a deterministic premium it reduces to explicit formulas (§5.4), and for μ1=0\mu_1=0μ1​=0 it recovers the equilibrium of Basak–Chabakauri and Björk–Murgoci; for μ2=0\mu_2=0μ2​=0 it differs from the feedback equilibrium of Björk–Murgoci–Zhou, which shows that open-loop and feedback equilibria are different notions. The random premium is what makes U≠0U\neq0U=0 and the feedback gain unbounded.

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is formalized elsewhere. The mission produces machine-checked statements of the equilibrium, of solvability of the Riccati-type BSDE (5.8), and of the integrability of a linear SDE with BMO-type coefficients, on the platform's published stochastic-calculus substrate. The definition of BMO martingales and the encoding of open-loop equilibria are reusable beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The verification step that most readers try first, plugging u∗u^*u∗ into the wealth equation and applying standard SDE estimates, fails: the gain α=(Γ(1)θ−U)/M\alpha=(\Gamma^{(1)}\theta-U)/Mα=(Γ(1)θ−U)/M is unbounded, because UUU is only BMO, so the closed-loop SDE is linear with non-Lipschitz-bounded random coefficients and neither existence of the wealth nor u∗∈L2u^*\in L^2u∗∈L2 follows from standard theory (Proposition 5.3). The BSDE (5.8) has a driver with quadratic growth in UUU and a singular factor M−1M^{-1}M−1; it is not covered by the standard theory of stochastic Riccati equations and its solution must be bounded away from zero for the feedback to make sense. Uniqueness in (5.8) and solvability of (5.13) rely on BMO-martingale and change-of-measure facts (Kazamaki) that are not in Mathlib. Finally, the equilibrium property is a statement about every ttt and every perturbation, and the sufficient condition (Theorem 3.3) needs the limit behaviour of conditional expectations Et[Λ(s;t)]E_t[\Lambda(s;t)]Et​[Λ(s;t)] as s↓ts\downarrow ts↓t.

Formalization scope

Everything is built on the published definition Peng1990_SMP_Stochastic (Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathcal F}LF2​, Itô integrals, SDEs and BSDEs as relations). The general LQ model, the spike, the conditional cost and Definition 2.1 are in Model; the adjoint equation on [t,T][t,T][t,T], Λ\LambdaΛ and condition (3.4) in Adjoint; the market, Γ(1)\Gamma^{(1)}Γ(1), Γ\GammaΓ, BMO, (5.8), (5.13) and (5.14) in Market. Conventions the statements commit to:

  • Lower limit. Definition 2.1 is stated with lim inf⁡\liminfliminf in R‾\overline{\mathbb R}R, along every sequence εk↓0\varepsilon_k\downarrow0εk​↓0, almost surely for each sequence. The page writes lim⁡\limlim; the limit need not exist, and the paper's own argument bounds the lower limit.
  • Filtration. The natural, uncompleted filtration of WWW instead of the augmented one; conditional expectations and progressive processes agree up to null sets.
  • States from time ttt are solutions on the whole horizon [0,T][0,T][0,T] for a control equal to u∗u^*u∗ before ttt.
  • Versions. Conditions involving conditional expectations at uncountably many times are stated through jointly measurable versions; "a.s., a.e." means ds⊗dPds\otimes dPds⊗dP-a.e.; uniqueness of BSDE solutions is up to modification and ds⊗dPds\otimes dPds⊗dP-null sets; BMO is in integrated form.
  • Market primitive. The risk premium θ\thetaθ is the primitive, as in (5.2); every bounded progressive θ\thetaθ comes from some bounded (μ,σ)(\mu,\sigma)(μ,σ) with σσ′⪰εI\sigma\sigma'\succeq\varepsilon Iσσ′⪰εI.
  • Existence statements. Peng's SDE solutions already carry u∗∈L2u^*\in L^2u∗∈L2 and sup⁡tE∣Xt∣2<∞\sup_tE|X_t|^2<\inftysupt​E∣Xt​∣2<∞, so Proposition 5.3 is stated as existence of a closed-loop solution with continuous paths and Esup⁡t∣Xt∗∣2<∞E\sup_t|X^*_t|^2<\inftyEsupt​∣Xt∗​∣2<∞. Theorem 5.4 asserts existence of the closed-loop wealth instead of assuming it.

The goal does not assume the BMO properties of UUU and γ(2)\gamma^{(2)}γ(2) (they are conclusions of Propositions 5.1–5.2), does not assume θ\thetaθ deterministic or U=0U=0U=0 (that is the special case of §5.4), and keeps Q=R=0Q=R=0Q=R=0, G=h=1G=h=1G=h=1; a formalization that assumes any of these, or that admits the junk value M−1=0M^{-1}=0M−1=0 on a non-null set, proves a different theorem. Theorem 3.3, the sufficient condition used in the last line of the proof, is the n=1n=1n=1 case of Mission I's goal and is not restated here. Welcome contributions: a BMO and Girsanov library on the Peng substrate, existence for quadratic BSDEs, and a proof of the sufficient condition.

Selected references

  • Y. Hu, H. Jin, X. Y. Zhou, Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control, arXiv:1111.0818v1, 2011; SIAM J. Control Optim. 50(3), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0818
  • S. Basak, G. Chabakauri, Dynamic mean-variance asset allocation, Rev. Financ. Stud. 23(8), 2010. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq028
  • T. Björk, A. Murgoci, X. Y. Zhou, Mean–variance portfolio optimization with state-dependent risk aversion, Math. Finance 24(1), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2011.00515.x
  • N. Kazamaki, Continuous Exponential Martingales and BMO, Lecture Notes in Math. 1579, Springer, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0073585
  • M. Kobylanski, Backward stochastic differential equations and partial differential equations with quadratic growth, Ann. Probab. 28(2), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1019160253
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28(4), 1990. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
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Number Theory·Captain: Xiang Huang

Normality of πOpen Problem

Motivation

A real number is normal in base bbb when every block of kkk base-bbb digits occurs in its expansion with limiting frequency b−kb^{-k}b−k, exactly as it would in a sequence of independent uniformly random digits. It is normal (absolutely normal) when it is normal in every base b≥2b\ge 2b≥2. Whether the classical constants of analysis, above all π\piπ, are normal is one of the oldest open questions linking number theory and probability: it asks whether a number defined by geometry has digits that are statistically indistinguishable from random ones.

Timeline.

  • 1909. Borel introduces normality and proves that Lebesgue-almost every real number is normal in every base (Borel 1909). The proof is non-constructive and gives no explicit example.
  • 1933. Champernowne gives the first explicit normal numbers. The best known is 0.123456789101112…0.123456789101112\ldots0.123456789101112…, the positive integers written one after another, which is normal in base ten (Champernowne 1933, Theorems I–IV). He conjectures that 0.235711131719…0.235711131719\ldots0.235711131719…, built from the primes, is also normal.
  • 1946. Copeland and Erdős prove that 0.a1a2a3…0.a_1a_2a_3\ldots0.a1​a2​a3​… is normal in base bbb for every increasing sequence of positive integers ana_nan​ that contains more than NθN^\thetaNθ terms up to NNN for every θ<1\theta<1θ<1 and all large NNN. This settles Champernowne's conjecture for the primes (Copeland–Erdős 1946).
  • 1997–2001. The Bailey–Borwein–Plouffe formula computes binary digits of π\piπ without the earlier ones (BBP 1997). Bailey and Crandall reduce the base-2 normality of π\piπ to a conjecture on a specific discrete dynamical system (Bailey–Crandall 2001). The conjecture remains open.
  • 2002. Becher and Figueira give a computable absolutely normal number (Becher–Figueira 2002).

Large-scale digit computations of π\piπ are statistically consistent with normality. No base is known in which π\piπ is normal, and it is not even known that any particular digit occurs infinitely often in its decimal expansion.

Setting

A digit sequence is a function s:N→Ns:\mathbb N\to\mathbb Ns:N→N; s0s_0s0​ is the first digit after the point. A word is a finite list w=(w0,…,wk−1)w=(w_0,\dots,w_{k-1})w=(w0​,…,wk−1​) of naturals. For N∈NN\in\mathbb NN∈N, the occurrence count count(s,w,N)\mathrm{count}(s,w,N)count(s,w,N) is the number of positions i<Ni<Ni<N with si+j=wjs_{i+j}=w_jsi+j​=wj​ for every j<kj<kj<k. Overlapping occurrences each count.

The sequence sss is normal in base bbb (IsNormalSeq b s) if, for every word www with all entries <b<b<b,

lim⁡N→∞count(s,w,N)N=b−∣w∣.\lim_{N\to\infty}\frac{\mathrm{count}(s,w,N)}{N}=b^{-|w|}.N→∞lim​Ncount(s,w,N)​=b−∣w∣.

The nnn-th base-bbb digit of a real xxx after the point is

digitb(x,n)=⌊x b n+1⌋ mod b.\mathrm{digit}_b(x,n)=\lfloor x\,b^{\,n+1}\rfloor \bmod b .digitb​(x,n)=⌊xbn+1⌋modb.

The real xxx is normal in base bbb (IsNormalReal b x) if n↦digitb(x,n)n\mapsto \mathrm{digit}_b(x,n)n↦digitb​(x,n) is normal in base bbb. Two remarks:

  • The integer part of xxx plays no role.
  • For a rational number with two expansions, the floor selects the one not ending in repeated (b−1)(b-1)(b−1)'s.

Formalization targets

Goal: π\piπ is normal

∀ b∈N,b≥2 ⟹ π is normal in base b.\forall\, b\in\mathbb N,\quad b\ge 2\ \Longrightarrow\ \pi \text{ is normal in base } b.∀b∈N,b≥2 ⟹ π is normal in base b.

This is the conjecture in its standard form, normality in every base. The base-ten case is the special case b=10b=10b=10.

Milestones

None are listed. No decomposition of this problem into intermediate statements is known that would be a faithful attack path, and the mission does not invent one. Proposals for intermediate targets are welcome in the discussion; see the contributions listed under Formalization scope.

The known theorems of the subject (Champernowne's constructions, the Copeland–Erdős theorem, Borel's theorem) concern numbers built to be normal or almost every number; they are not steps toward π\piπ and are kept in the separate mission Explicit normal numbers: Champernowne and Copeland–Erdős.

Significance

A proof that π\piπ is normal in base bbb would give every finite digit pattern a definite limiting frequency in its expansion. It would be the first normality result for a classical constant not built to be normal. Every known normal number is constructed digit by digit (Champernowne, Copeland–Erdős, Sierpiński, Becher–Figueira) or shown to exist by a measure argument (Borel). Even the base-2 case would settle the Bailey–Crandall programme for π\piπ.

Formalization status. The goal is open mathematics. The definitions it is stated with are published and are shared with the mission Explicit normal numbers: Champernowne and Copeland–Erdős, where Champernowne's theorems and the Copeland–Erdős theorem have machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

The constructive results all prove normality from the digit-by-digit description of the number. In particular, the Copeland–Erdős block criterion needs the expansion to be an explicit concatenation of blocks. π\piπ has no such description. Its known series (Machin-type formulas, BBP) give digits as values of exponential sums, and no known method controls the joint distribution of long digit blocks of such values.

Borel's theorem does not help: it only says that the exceptional set is null, and gives no criterion for deciding whether a given number lies in it. Neither high-precision digit statistics nor irrationality measures for π\piπ imply normality.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace Normal and use the definition bundle Normal_Core:

  • count, IsNormalSeq, digit, IsNormalReal;
  • ofDigits b s =∑nsnb−(n+1)=\sum_n s_n b^{-(n+1)}=∑n​sn​b−(n+1);
  • the concatenation operators flatten, digitsBE, concatDigits;
  • the Champernowne and Copeland–Erdős constants.

Committed conventions:

  • Digits are read after the point, with the floor convention above.
  • Frequencies are limits of real quotients.
  • Words of every length k≥0k\ge0k≥0 are quantified, with entries <b<b<b.
  • The goal ranges over all natural bases b≥2b\ge2b≥2. The degenerate bases 000 and 111 are excluded by hypothesis, not by convention.

The definitions agree with Borel's, and the mission does not admit a trivialising reading. A real number is not normal merely because it is irrational, and the empty word imposes only the trivial condition.

The bundle also contains a verbatim copy of the integer-arithmetic definition IsNormal from xiangyazi24/agafonov; its equivalence with IsNormalSeq is proved on the platform (Normal.isNormalSeq_iff_isNormal), so results stated in either form transfer.

Welcome contributions:

  • Borel's theorem, via the strong law of large numbers or a Chernoff bound for digit blocks;
  • equivalent characterisations of normality, such as Wall's criterion by uniform distribution of bnx mod 1b^n x \bmod 1bnxmod1 and the reduction from all words to aligned blocks;
  • conditional reductions, such as the Bailey–Crandall hypothesis implying base-2 normality of π\piπ.

Selected references

  • É. Borel, Les probabilités dénombrables et leurs applications arithmétiques, Rend. Circ. Mat. Palermo 27 (1909), 247–271. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03019651
  • D. G. Champernowne, The construction of decimals normal in the scale of ten, J. London Math. Soc. 8 (1933), 254–260. https://doi.org/10.1112/jlms/s1-8.4.254
  • A. H. Copeland and P. Erdős, Note on normal numbers, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 52 (1946), 857–860. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1946-08657-7
  • D. Bailey, P. Borwein and S. Plouffe, On the rapid computation of various polylogarithmic constants, Math. Comp. 66 (1997), 903–913. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0025-5718-97-00856-9
  • D. H. Bailey and R. E. Crandall, On the random character of fundamental constant expansions, Experiment. Math. 10 (2001), 175–190. https://doi.org/10.1080/10586458.2001.10504441
  • V. Becher and S. Figueira, An example of a computable absolutely normal number, Theoret. Comput. Sci. 270 (2002), 947–958. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3975(01)00170-0
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Matroid Prophet Inequalities 1: Against Any Online Weight-Adaptive Adversary, the 2-Balanced Threshold Algorithm Earns at Least Half the Expected Max-Weight BasisResearch Paper

Motivation

The prophet inequality of optimal stopping compares a gambler, who sees independent non-negative random values X1,…,XnX_1, \dots, X_nX1​,…,Xn​ one at a time and must accept or reject each on arrival, with a prophet who sees them all in advance. Krengel, Sucheston and Garling showed that the gambler can secure E[Xτ]≥12 E[max⁡iXi]\mathbb E[X_\tau] \ge \tfrac12\,\mathbb E[\max_i X_i]E[Xτ​]≥21​E[maxi​Xi​], and Samuel-Cahn showed that a single threshold suffices. Since Hajiaghayi, Kleinberg and Sandholm (2007) and Chawla, Hartline, Malec and Sivan (2010), prophet inequalities have served as the approximation guarantees of sequential posted-price mechanisms: an online selection rule with a prophet guarantee turns into a truthful mechanism with a revenue guarantee.

The natural multi-choice generalization lets the gambler accept a set of elements, subject to a feasibility constraint. Kleinberg and Weinberg, Matroid Prophet Inequalities (STOC 2012, arXiv:1201.4764), proved that when the feasible sets are the independent sets of a matroid, the factor 12\tfrac1221​ is still achievable, by an explicit threshold rule, and even when the order of arrival is chosen adaptively by an adversary.

Timeline:

  • 1977–78: Krengel and Sucheston, with Garling: the single-choice prophet inequality with factor 12\tfrac1221​, which is tight.
  • 1984: Samuel-Cahn: a single fixed threshold attains 12\tfrac1221​.
  • 2007: Hajiaghayi, Kleinberg, Sandholm: prophet inequalities read as truthful online auctions, with multi-choice prophet inequalities.
  • 2010: Chawla, Hartline, Malec, Sivan: posted-price mechanisms via prophet inequalities, and factor 12\tfrac1221​ for matroids when the algorithm may choose the order of arrival.
  • 2012: Kleinberg–Weinberg: factor 12\tfrac1221​ for every matroid against an online weight-adaptive adversary, and 14p−2\tfrac1{4p-2}4p−21​ for intersections of ppp matroids.

Setting

Let U\mathcal UU be a finite ground set and M=(U,I)\mathcal M = (\mathcal U, \mathcal I)M=(U,I) a matroid; I\mathcal II is its family of independent sets. For each x∈Ux \in \mathcal Ux∈U a distribution FxF_xFx​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) is given; the weights w(x)w(x)w(x) are independent with w(x)∼Fxw(x) \sim F_xw(x)∼Fx​, and w(A)=∑x∈Aw(x)w(A) = \sum_{x \in A} w(x)w(A)=∑x∈A​w(x). Let OPT(w)=max⁡{w(S):S∈I}\mathrm{OPT}(w) = \max\{w(S) : S \in \mathcal I\}OPT(w)=max{w(S):S∈I} and OPT=E[OPT(w)]\mathrm{OPT} = \mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}(w)]OPT=E[OPT(w)].

An online weight-adaptive adversary reveals the elements one at a time: it picks xix_ixi​ knowing w(x1),…,w(xi−1)w(x_1), \dots, w(x_{i-1})w(x1​),…,w(xi−1​) but not w(xi)w(x_i)w(xi​). An online algorithm maintains a selected set Ai−1∈IA_{i-1} \in \mathcal IAi−1​∈I and, when xix_ixi​ arrives with its weight, irrevocably accepts or rejects it, keeping AiA_iAi​ independent. A threshold rule offers xix_ixi​ a threshold TiT_iTi​ computed from the revealed prefix (and Ti=∞T_i = \inftyTi​=∞ when Ai−1∪{xi}∉IA_{i-1} \cup \{x_i\} \notin \mathcal IAi−1​∪{xi​}∈/I) and accepts iff w(xi)≥Tiw(x_i) \ge T_iw(xi​)≥Ti​.

The algorithm of the paper uses a ghost sample: an independent copy w′w'w′ of the weights. Let BBB be a w′w'w′-maximum-weight basis. For an independent set AAA, among the partitions B=C⊔RB = C \sqcup RB=C⊔R with R∩A=∅R \cap A = \emptysetR∩A=∅ and A∪RA \cup RA∪R a basis, R(A)R(A)R(A), C(A)C(A)C(A) denote one maximizing w′(R)w'(R)w′(R). The algorithm (9) sets

Ti=12 Ew′[w′(R(Ai−1))−w′(R(Ai−1∪{xi}))].T_i = \tfrac12\,\mathbb E_{w'}\big[w'(R(A_{i-1})) - w'(R(A_{i-1}\cup\{x_i\}))\big].Ti​=21​Ew′​[w′(R(Ai−1​))−w′(R(Ai−1​∪{xi​}))].

Formalization targets

Goal: the matroid prophet inequality

For every matroid on a finite ground set, every family of distributions FxF_xFx​ on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite means, and every online weight-adaptive adversary, the set AAA selected by the algorithm (9) satisfies

E[w(A)]  ≥  12 OPT.\mathbb E[w(A)] \;\ge\; \tfrac12\,\mathrm{OPT}.E[w(A)]≥21​OPT.

The goal is stated for the paper's own algorithm, which is stronger than the existence statement of §3.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (with Definition 1): any threshold rule with α\alphaα-balanced thresholds,
∑xi∈ATi≥1α E[w′(C(A))],∑xi∈VTi≤(1−1α) E[w′(R(A))],\sum_{x_i\in A} T_i \ge \tfrac1\alpha\,\mathbb E[w'(C(A))], \qquad \sum_{x_i\in V} T_i \le \big(1-\tfrac1\alpha\big)\,\mathbb E[w'(R(A))],xi​∈A∑​Ti​≥α1​E[w′(C(A))],xi​∈V∑​Ti​≤(1−α1​)E[w′(R(A))],

earns E[w(A)]≥1α OPT\mathbb E[w(A)] \ge \tfrac1\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}E[w(A)]≥α1​OPT. 2. The identity behind (9) = (10), and the telescoping identity ∑xi∈ATi=12 E[w′(C(A))]\sum_{x_i \in A} T_i = \tfrac12\,\mathbb E[w'(C(A))]∑xi​∈A​Ti​=21​E[w′(C(A))] (Property (2) for α=2\alpha = 2α=2). 3. Lemma 1 (bijective basis exchange, and its weighted form), Lemma 2 (R(A)R(A)R(A) is a maximum-weight basis of the contraction M/A\mathcal M/AM/A), Lemma 3 (S↦w′(R(S))S \mapsto w'(R(S))S↦w′(R(S)) is submodular on subsets of an independent set). 4. Inequalities (11) and (12), and Proposition 2:

∑xi∈V[w′(R(Ai−1))−w′(R(Ai−1∪{xi}))]≤w′(R(A)),\sum_{x_i \in V}\big[w'(R(A_{i-1})) - w'(R(A_{i-1}\cup\{x_i\}))\big] \le w'(R(A)),xi​∈V∑​[w′(R(Ai−1​))−w′(R(Ai−1​∪{xi​}))]≤w′(R(A)),

pointwise in w′≥0w' \ge 0w′≥0; then Property (3) with α=2\alpha = 2α=2 for the thresholds (9).

Significance

The theorem gives the optimal constant: already for a rank-one matroid (choose one element) no online algorithm beats 12\tfrac1221​. It covers every matroid with one algorithm, including uniform, partition, graphic and transversal matroids, which model capacity, unit-demand and spanning-tree constraints. Through the reduction of Chawla et al., the paper derives from it order-oblivious posted-price mechanisms that are 2-approximations to the optimal revenue in single-parameter settings with matroid feasibility and, through the adaptive adversary, in multi-dimensional unit-demand settings (§6 of the paper). The decomposition through α\alphaα-balanced thresholds is reused in the paper for intersections of ppp matroids, with factor 14p−2\tfrac1{4p-2}4p−21​.

The result has been proved since 2012; it has not been formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked development of the model (online adaptive adversaries, threshold rules, the ghost-sample expectations), of the general reduction (Proposition 1), and of the matroid facts the algorithm relies on, notably the bijective exchange lemma (Schrijver, Corollary 39.12a), which is not in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fixes the order of arrival and compares the algorithm with the prophet item by item. It fails here because the order is chosen adaptively from the revealed weights, so the set of elements still to come is random and correlated with the past. The proof must instead compare the algorithm's realized selection with a ghost optimum BBB built from an independent sample, and bound the value the algorithm forgoes by the value the ghost optimum could still add, E[w′(R(A))]\mathbb E[w'(R(A))]E[w′(R(A))]. The step that needs matroid structure is Property (3): the total threshold offered to any set VVV that could still be added must be at most half of E[w′(R(A))]\mathbb E[w'(R(A))]E[w′(R(A))]. The thresholds were computed along the history A0⊆A1⊆…A_0 \subseteq A_1 \subseteq \dotsA0​⊆A1​⊆…, not at the final AAA, so the bound requires the submodularity of S↦w′(R(S))S \mapsto w'(R(S))S↦w′(R(S)) (Lemma 3) and a weight-dominating exchange between VVV and R(A)R(A)R(A) in the contraction M/A\mathcal M/AM/A. Neither holds for general downward-closed families.

Formalization scope

  • The ground set is a Fintype α; the matroid is Mathlib's Matroid α with ground set Set.univ; sets are Finset α; contraction is Matroid.contract.
  • The distributions are F : α → Measure ℝ, probability measures with F x (Set.Iio 0) = 0 (support in [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞)) and Integrable id (F x) (finite means). The weight law is Measure.pi F, and every expectation is a Bochner integral over it. Finite means make OPT(w)\mathrm{OPT}(w)OPT(w), w(A)w(A)w(A) and the integrands of the thresholds integrable, so no expectation is a junk value.
  • OPT(w)\mathrm{OPT}(w)OPT(w) is a maximum over the nonempty finset of independent sets. The maximum-weight basis B(w′)B(w')B(w′) and the maximizer R(A)R(A)R(A) are fixed by choice when weights tie; Lemma 2 shows w′(R(A))w'(R(A))w′(R(A)) does not depend on the choice. R(A)R(A)R(A) is required to be disjoint from AAA, as Lemma 2's placement of R(A)R(A)R(A) in M/A\mathcal M/AM/A needs.
  • A threshold rule is a real-valued function of the current selection, the revealed list, the weights and the arriving element, non-negative, depending on the weights only through revealed ones, measurably; the value ∞\infty∞ on infeasible steps is an independence guard in the acceptance test. "Monotone algorithm" in Proposition 1 means such a rule.
  • An adversary is a deterministic map from the revealed list and the weights to the next unrevealed element, depending only on revealed weights and measurable. Randomized adversaries are mixtures of these.
  • Lemma 1, part 2 is stated for disjoint VVV and RRR: as printed it fails when they overlap, and the paper uses it only for disjoint sets.

The goal fixes the thresholds by (9) through BBB, R(⋅)R(\cdot)R(⋅) and the ghost expectation; a statement in which the thresholds are free parameters assumed to satisfy (2)–(3) would be Proposition 1 and is not the goal.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the measurability of the online run, the exchange lemma for Mathlib matroids, the greedy characterization of maximum-weight bases of a contraction, and the probabilistic core (7) of Proposition 1. The matroid lemmas are reusable beyond this mission, in particular by the matroid-intersection mission of the same paper.

Selected references

  • R. Kleinberg, S. M. Weinberg, Matroid Prophet Inequalities, STOC 2012; arXiv:1201.4764v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.4764 , https://doi.org/10.1145/2213977.2213991
  • U. Krengel, L. Sucheston, Semiamarts and finite values, Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 83, 745–747, 1977.
  • U. Krengel, L. Sucheston, On semiamarts, amarts, and processes with finite value, Advances in Probability and Related Topics 4, 197–266, 1978.
  • E. Samuel-Cahn, Comparison of threshold stop rules and maximum for independent nonnegative random variables, Annals of Probability 12(4), 1213–1216, 1984.
  • M. T. Hajiaghayi, R. Kleinberg, T. Sandholm, Automated mechanism design and prophet inequalities, AAAI 2007, pp. 58–65.
  • S. Chawla, J. Hartline, D. Malec, B. Sivan, Multi-parameter mechanism design and sequential posted pricing, STOC 2010, pp. 311–320.
  • A. Schrijver, Combinatorial Optimization: Polyhedra and Efficiency, Springer, 2003 (Corollary 39.12a).
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AnalysisOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems 1: Composition Preserves J₁ Convergence When the Outer Path Is Continuous or the Inner Path Is Continuous and Strictly IncreasingResearch Paper

Motivation

Random time changes occur when a process is observed on an operational clock rather than calendar time. In queueing models, for example, an arrival-count path may be evaluated at an evolving service clock. A functional limit theorem for the outer path and another for the clock are useful together only when evaluating one path at the times supplied by the other preserves convergence. Ward Whitt's 1980 paper studies several path operations with this question in mind; composition is its first main operation. The issue is specific to paths with jumps, because a small shift of the clock can move an evaluation across a jump.

Setting

Let T1,T2,T3T_1,T_2,T_3T1​,T2​,T3​ be nonempty intervals of real time, with T2⊆T3T_2\subseteq T_3T2​⊆T3​, and let (S,m)(S,m)(S,m) be a complete separable metric space. The càdlàg path space D(T,S)D(T,S)D(T,S) consists of paths that are right continuous and have left limits on TTT. Its subspace C(T,S)C(T,S)C(T,S) contains the continuous paths. The nondecreasing clock space D0(T1,T2)D_0(T_1,T_2)D0​(T1​,T2​) consists of càdlàg real-valued paths on T1T_1T1​ that are nondecreasing and take their values in T2T_2T2​. Its subspace C0(T1,T2)C_0(T_1,T_2)C0​(T1​,T2​) contains the continuous, strictly increasing clocks. For x∈D(T3,S)x\in D(T_3,S)x∈D(T3​,S) and y∈D0(T1,T2)y\in D_0(T_1,T_2)y∈D0​(T1​,T2​), composition is the path (x∘y)(t)=x(y(t))(x\circ y)(t)=x(y(t))(x∘y)(t)=x(y(t)) on T1T_1T1​.

Convergence uses the Skorohod J1J_1J1​ topology. On a compact interval [a,b][a,b][a,b], let Λ[a,b]\Lambda_{[a,b]}Λ[a,b]​ be the increasing homeomorphisms of [a,b][a,b][a,b] and let e(t)=te(t)=te(t)=t. With ρ[a,b]\rho_{[a,b]}ρ[a,b]​ denoting uniform distance, Whitt's metric is

d[a,b](u,v)=inf⁡λ∈Λ[a,b]max⁡{ρ[a,b](λ,e),ρ[a,b](u,v∘λ)}.d_{[a,b]}(u,v)=\inf_{\lambda\in\Lambda_{[a,b]}} \max\{\rho_{[a,b]}(\lambda,e),\rho_{[a,b]}(u,v\circ\lambda)\}.d[a,b]​(u,v)=λ∈Λ[a,b]​inf​max{ρ[a,b]​(λ,e),ρ[a,b]​(u,v∘λ)}.

Thus close paths may have nearby jumps at different times, provided an increasing time change aligns them. On a general interval, convergence is checked on compact subintervals whose endpoints are continuity points of the limit or endpoints of the full interval. Whitt gives this definition in §2, then gives CCC, C0C_0C0​, and D0D_0D0​ in §3. All subsets carry relative topologies and products carry product topologies.

Formalization targets

Composition at a continuous outer path

For xn→xx_n\to xxn​→x in D(T3,S)D(T_3,S)D(T3​,S) and yn→yy_n\to yyn​→y in D0(T1,T2)D_0(T_1,T_2)D0​(T1​,T2​), the first milestone states

x∈C(T3,S)⟹xn∘yn→x∘y in D(T1,S).x\in C(T_3,S)\quad\Longrightarrow\quad x_n\circ y_n\to x\circ y\text{ in }D(T_1,S).x∈C(T3​,S)⟹xn​∘yn​→x∘y in D(T1​,S).

The path-space definition and the two preparatory milestones are a small-oscillation partition for a càdlàg path, cited by Whitt from Billingsley, and Whitt's Lemma 2.2, which relates convergence on a compact interval to convergence on the two pieces made by splitting it at a continuity point.

Composition at a strictly increasing clock

The second case, and the combined goal, also allow the outer limit path to jump. Let ∂TT1\partial_T T_1∂T​T1​ mean the endpoints of T1T_1T1​ that belong to T1T_1T1​. The corrected target is

[x∈C(T3,S)or(y∈C0(T1,T2) andx is continuous at y(t) for every t∈∂TT1)]⟹xn∘yn→x∘y in D(T1,S).\left[x\in C(T_3,S)\quad\text{or}\quad \bigl(y\in C_0(T_1,T_2)\ \text{and} x\text{ is continuous at }y(t)\text{ for every }t\in\partial_T T_1\bigr)\right] \Longrightarrow x_n\circ y_n\to x\circ y\text{ in }D(T_1,S).[x∈C(T3​,S)or(y∈C0​(T1​,T2​) andx is continuous at y(t) for every t∈∂T​T1​)]⟹xn​∘yn​→x∘y in D(T1​,S).

The goal includes both cases for simultaneously varying xnx_nxn​ and yny_nyn​. The endpoint condition is vacuous for an endpoint excluded from T1T_1T1​. It is part of the strictly increasing clock case only; it imposes no extra restriction when the outer limit path is continuous.

Significance

This theorem supplies a precise condition for carrying two path limits through a random time transformation. In particular, the assertion includes convergence of the composed paths as elements of a càdlàg space, not merely convergence of their values at individual times. The distinction matters at jumps: pointwise convergence does not control the placement or ordering of nearby jumps. The result is a deterministic continuity statement that can be paired with probabilistic mapping theorems when the corresponding random paths are available.

Whitt proved the composition theorem in 1980, subject to the endpoint issue described below. The formalization work here is to construct its path-space interface in Lean, state the corrected continuity theorem with every domain condition visible, and eventually replace the open sorry proofs with checked proofs. The interface can also support the paper's later results on reflection, first passage, and time reversal; those results are separate missions. No proof of this mission's goal is claimed yet.

Difficulty

The tempting argument is to use separate continuity of xn→xx_n\to xxn​→x and yn→yy_n\to yyn​→y and then substitute yn(t)y_n(t)yn​(t) into the first convergence. That argument loses control of evaluations near a jump of xxx. A J1J_1J1​ time change may align a jump of xnx_nxn​ with the corresponding jump of xxx, while the clock yny_nyn​ may cross those times differently. Continuity of the outer limit path removes that difficulty in one case; in the other, the clock must be continuous and strictly increasing. The source explicitly shows that composition is not continuous on all of D×D0D\times D_0D×D0​ (§3, p. 75).

The endpoints impose a further obstruction because increasing homeomorphisms of a closed time interval fix its endpoints. Bauer's Remark on p. 75 observes a failure at the right endpoint. There is a symmetric failure at the left endpoint, so the statement here includes both. This is a correction to the printed theorem, not a new claim that the uncorrected theorem is true.

Formalization scope

Paths are represented as total functions R→S\mathbb R\to SR→S, with only values on the named interval used. The domain assumptions OrdConnected and Nonempty express nonempty real intervals. The outer interval T3T_3T3​ is also required to have nonempty interior: the formal convergence predicate checks only compact intervals [a,b][a,b][a,b] with a<ba<ba<b, so on a one-point T3T_3T3​ it imposes nothing, and the C×D0C\times D_0C×D0​ case would fail for constant outer paths with different values. A clock's range condition is explicit, as is nondecreasingness for every prelimit clock. Membership of all paths in the relevant càdlàg spaces is part of the convergence predicates. The output predicate likewise requires every composition and its limit to be càdlàg. This rules out the trivialization in which one merely proves convergence of selected point evaluations or assumes the compositions already have the conclusion's path-space properties.

The compact uniform distance and the infimum over time changes take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. They use the actual metric on SSS, not a real supremum with a default value on an unbounded set. A time change is a total function whose restriction to the compact interval is continuous, strictly increasing, and onto. Continuity at a time means continuity relative to the path's interval. The general-interval convergence predicate checks the compact intervals specified by Whitt and requires each sequence member to belong to DDD. The theorem is written as sequential continuity; Whitt's J1J_1J1​ spaces are metrizable, making that equivalent to topological continuity. The real-valued clock space uses the relative topology inherited from real-valued càdlàg paths.

The endpoint correction is exact in the Lean statement. At the right endpoint, take T1=T2=T3=[0,1]T_1=T_2=T_3=[0,1]T1​=T2​=T3​=[0,1], y(t)=ty(t)=ty(t)=t, yn(t)=(1−1/n)ty_n(t)=(1-1/n)tyn​(t)=(1−1/n)t for n≥2n\ge2n≥2, and x=1{1}x=1_{\{1\}}x=1{1}​. Then x∘ynx\circ y_nx∘yn​ is zero while (x∘y)(1)=1(x\circ y)(1)=1(x∘y)(1)=1. At the left endpoint, take T1=T2=[0,1]T_1=T_2=[0,1]T1​=T2​=[0,1], T3=[−1,2]T_3=[-1,2]T3​=[−1,2], yn=y=ey_n=y=eyn​=y=e, x=1[0,2]x=1_{[0,2]}x=1[0,2]​, and xn=1[1/n,2]x_n=1_{[1/n,2]}xn​=1[1/n,2]​. The outer paths converge in J1J_1J1​ on T3T_3T3​, but the compositions disagree at 000. Both examples show why continuity of xxx at the image of every included endpoint is required in the D×C0D\times C_0D×C0​ case.

The development needs the càdlàg definition, J1J_1J1​ metric and convergence predicates, compact restriction lemma, and the finite oscillation partition. Their definitions and lemmas are reusable for other functionals on path spaces. Contributions that prove the milestones and goal under the stated hypotheses are welcome. This mission does not formalize the Borel measurability or probability-measure machinery discussed elsewhere in Whitt's paper; Theorem 3.1 itself is a deterministic continuity claim.

Selected references

  • Ward Whitt, Some Useful Functions for Functional Limit Theorems, Mathematics of Operations Research 5(1), 67–85, 1980. DOI: 10.1287/moor.5.1.67.
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control I: A Flow of Forward–Backward SDEs Gives a Sufficient Condition for Open-Loop Equilibrium ControlsResearch Paper

Motivation

Dynamic programming rests on time consistency: a control that is optimal when viewed from time 000 stays optimal when viewed from any later time. Many problems of mathematical finance lack this property. The continuous-time mean–variance portfolio problem (Zhou–Li 2000) contains a variance, that is, a nonlinear function of an expectation, and state-dependent risk aversion (Björk–Murgoci–Zhou) lets the criterion itself depend on the current state. For such problems an optimal control computed today is abandoned tomorrow, and the HJB equation is not available.

One response, going back to the game-theoretic view of non-commitment (Ekeland–Lazrak, arXiv:math/0604264; Björk–Murgoci, SSRN 1694759), is to replace optimality by equilibrium: a control that no "future self" can improve by deviating on an infinitesimally short interval. Those works consider feedback (Markov) controls. Hu, Jin and Zhou (arXiv:1111.0818v1) define equilibrium within open-loop controls for a general stochastic linear–quadratic (LQ) problem with random coefficients, and characterize it by a flow of forward–backward SDEs, in the spirit of the stochastic maximum principle (Peng 1990). This mission formalizes that characterization: §2 and §3 of the paper, up to Theorem 3.2. The other two missions of the series build on it. Mission II treats a scalar state with deterministic coefficients (Theorem 4.4), and Mission III treats mean–variance portfolio selection (Theorem 5.4).

Setting

Let W=(W1,…,Wd)W=(W^1,\dots,W^d)W=(W1,…,Wd) be a standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) with its filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​), and let T>0T>0T>0. A control is a process u∈LF2(0,T;Rl)u\in L^2_{\mathcal F}(0,T;\mathbb R^l)u∈LF2​(0,T;Rl), that is, progressively measurable with E∫0T∣us∣2ds<∞\mathbb E\int_0^T|u_s|^2ds<\inftyE∫0T​∣us​∣2ds<∞. Its state XXX solves the linear SDE

dXs=[AsXs+Bs′us+bs] ds+∑j=1d[CsjXs+Dsjus+σsj] dWsj,X0=x0.dX_s=[A_sX_s+B_s'u_s+b_s]\,ds+\sum_{j=1}^d[C^j_sX_s+D^j_su_s+\sigma^j_s]\,dW^j_s,\qquad X_0=x_0.dXs​=[As​Xs​+Bs′​us​+bs​]ds+j=1∑d​[Csj​Xs​+Dsj​us​+σsj​]dWsj​,X0​=x0​.

Here AAA is a bounded deterministic n×nn\times nn×n matrix function. BBB (l×nl\times nl×n), CjC^jCj (n×nn\times nn×n) and DjD^jDj (n×ln\times ln×l) are essentially bounded progressive processes, and b,σj∈LF2(0,T;Rn)b,\sigma^j\in L^2_{\mathcal F}(0,T;\mathbb R^n)b,σj∈LF2​(0,T;Rn). At time ttt, with state xtx_txt​ and Et=E[⋅∣Ft]\mathbb E_t=\mathbb E[\cdot\mid\mathcal F_t]Et​=E[⋅∣Ft​], the cost is

J(t,xt;u)=12Et ⁣∫tT ⁣[⟨QsXs,Xs⟩+⟨Rsus,us⟩]ds+12Et⟨GXT,XT⟩−12⟨h EtXT,EtXT⟩−⟨μ1xt+μ2,EtXT⟩.J(t,x_t;u)=\tfrac12\mathbb E_t\!\int_t^T\!\big[\langle Q_sX_s,X_s\rangle+\langle R_su_s,u_s\rangle\big]ds+\tfrac12\mathbb E_t\langle GX_T,X_T\rangle-\tfrac12\langle h\,\mathbb E_tX_T,\mathbb E_tX_T\rangle-\langle\mu_1x_t+\mu_2,\mathbb E_tX_T\rangle.J(t,xt​;u)=21​Et​∫tT​[⟨Qs​Xs​,Xs​⟩+⟨Rs​us​,us​⟩]ds+21​Et​⟨GXT​,XT​⟩−21​⟨hEt​XT​,Et​XT​⟩−⟨μ1​xt​+μ2​,Et​XT​⟩.

Q,RQ,RQ,R are bounded symmetric processes with Q,R⪰0Q,R\succeq0Q,R⪰0, and G,hG,hG,h are symmetric with G⪰0G\succeq0G⪰0. The last two terms make the problem time-inconsistent. Given u∗u^*u∗ with state X∗X^*X∗, the spike variation at ttt is ust,ε,v=us∗+v1[t,t+ε)(s)u^{t,\varepsilon,v}_s=u^*_s+v\mathbf 1_{[t,t+\varepsilon)}(s)ust,ε,v​=us∗​+v1[t,t+ε)​(s) for v∈LFt2(Ω;Rl)v\in L^2_{\mathcal F_t}(\Omega;\mathbb R^l)v∈LFt​2​(Ω;Rl). The control u∗u^*u∗ is an equilibrium (Definition 2.1) if for every t∈[0,T)t\in[0,T)t∈[0,T) and every such vvv, almost surely

lim inf⁡ε↓0J(t,Xt∗;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗;u∗)ε≥0.\liminf_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\frac{J(t,X^*_t;u^{t,\varepsilon,v})-J(t,X^*_t;u^*)}{\varepsilon}\ge0.ε↓0liminf​εJ(t,Xt∗​;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗​;u∗)​≥0.

For each ttt, the first adjoint process (p(⋅;t),k(⋅;t))(p(\cdot;t),k(\cdot;t))(p(⋅;t),k(⋅;t)) solves on [t,T][t,T][t,T] the BSDE (3.1) with driver A′p+∑j(Cj)′kj+QX∗A'p+\sum_j(C^j)'k^j+QX^*A′p+∑j​(Cj)′kj+QX∗ and terminal value GXT∗−h EtXT∗−μ1Xt∗−μ2GX^*_T-h\,\mathbb E_tX^*_T-\mu_1X^*_t-\mu_2GXT∗​−hEt​XT∗​−μ1​Xt∗​−μ2​. The second adjoint process (P(⋅;t),K(⋅;t))(P(\cdot;t),K(\cdot;t))(P(⋅;t),K(⋅;t)) solves the matrix BSDE (3.2) with terminal value GGG. With these, define

Λ(s;t)=Bsp(s;t)+∑j(Dsj)′kj(s;t)+Rsus∗,H(s;t)=Rs+∑j(Dsj)′P(s;t)Dsj.\Lambda(s;t)=B_sp(s;t)+\sum_j(D^j_s)'k^j(s;t)+R_su^*_s,\qquad H(s;t)=R_s+\sum_j(D^j_s)'P(s;t)D^j_s.Λ(s;t)=Bs​p(s;t)+j∑​(Dsj​)′kj(s;t)+Rs​us∗​,H(s;t)=Rs​+j∑​(Dsj​)′P(s;t)Dsj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2 (p. 7)

Suppose u∗∈LF2u^*\in L^2_{\mathcal F}u∗∈LF2​, its state X∗X^*X∗, and for every t∈[0,T)t\in[0,T)t∈[0,T) a solution (p(⋅;t),k(⋅;t))(p(\cdot;t),k(\cdot;t))(p(⋅;t),k(⋅;t)) of (3.1) are given, and suppose Λ\LambdaΛ satisfies condition (3.4):

Et ⁣∫tT∣Λ(s;t)∣ ds<+∞,lim⁡s↓tEt[Λ(s;t)]=0a.s., for all t∈[0,T).\mathbb E_t\!\int_t^T|\Lambda(s;t)|\,ds<+\infty,\qquad\lim_{s\downarrow t}\mathbb E_t[\Lambda(s;t)]=0\quad\text{a.s., for all }t\in[0,T).Et​∫tT​∣Λ(s;t)∣ds<+∞,s↓tlim​Et​[Λ(s;t)]=0a.s., for all t∈[0,T).

Then u∗u^*u∗ is an equilibrium control.

Milestones

  1. P(s;t)⪰0P(s;t)\succeq0P(s;t)⪰0 (§3, p. 5).
  2. The perturbation decomposition Xt,ε,v=X∗+Y+ZX^{t,\varepsilon,v}=X^*+Y+ZXt,ε,v=X∗+Y+Z, with Et[Ys]=0\mathbb E_t[Y_s]=0Et​[Ys​]=0, Etsup⁡∣Y∣2=O(ε)\mathbb E_t\sup|Y|^2=O(\varepsilon)Et​sup∣Y∣2=O(ε) and Etsup⁡∣Z∣2=O(ε2)\mathbb E_t\sup|Z|^2=O(\varepsilon^2)Et​sup∣Z∣2=O(ε2) (proof of Proposition 3.1, p. 5).
  3. Proposition 3.1, the expansion
J(t,Xt∗;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗;u∗)=Et ⁣∫tt+ε ⁣{⟨Λ(s;t),v⟩+12⟨H(s;t)v,v⟩}ds+o(ε).J(t,X^*_t;u^{t,\varepsilon,v})-J(t,X^*_t;u^*)=\mathbb E_t\!\int_t^{t+\varepsilon}\!\Big\{\langle\Lambda(s;t),v\rangle+\tfrac12\langle H(s;t)v,v\rangle\Big\}ds+o(\varepsilon).J(t,Xt∗​;ut,ε,v)−J(t,Xt∗​;u∗)=Et​∫tt+ε​{⟨Λ(s;t),v⟩+21​⟨H(s;t)v,v⟩}ds+o(ε).

Significance

Theorem 3.2 is the paper's general tool. Its two explicit results are applications of it. With a scalar state and deterministic coefficients, a pair of coupled Riccati-type equations gives a linear feedback equilibrium (Theorem 4.4). In mean–variance portfolio selection with state-dependent risk aversion and a possibly random risk premium, the equilibrium strategy is found through a quadratic BSDE (Theorem 5.4). Each is proved by exhibiting a solution of the flow (3.6) and checking (3.4). The theorem therefore separates the existence question (solving a flow of FBSDEs) from the equilibrium question. The paper notes that the general existence question remains open.

The results are proved in the paper and have no machine-checked proof. The mission produces a precise statement of open-loop equilibrium for a stochastic LQ problem with random coefficients, together with Lean statements of the spike expansion and of the adjoint flows. Mission II and Mission III restate the same model, and their final steps apply this theorem. Formal proofs of the milestones exercise Itô calculus for linear SDEs and BSDEs with bounded coefficients: product rules, conditional L2L^2L2 estimates, and uniqueness and sign properties of linear BSDEs. This is infrastructure that Mathlib does not yet have.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is a first-order expansion of JJJ in ε\varepsilonε. It fails because the spike changes the control by vvv, which is not small, on a set of small measure. The state's deviation is then of order ε\sqrt\varepsilonε​ in L2L^2L2, its square contributes at order ε\varepsilonε, and a second-order term H(s;t)H(s;t)H(s;t) appears that a first-order adjoint cannot capture. Two features are absent from the classical maximum principle. The adjoint equations form a whole flow indexed by ttt, because the terminal value of (3.1) contains EtXT∗\mathbb E_t X^*_TEt​XT∗​ and Xt∗X^*_tXt∗​. And every statement is conditional on Ft\mathcal F_tFt​, so the expansion has to hold almost surely at the level of conditional expectations. That rules out arguments based on unconditional expectations.

Formalization scope

Brownian motion, LF2L^2_{\mathcal F}LF2​, Itô integrals and SDE solutions come from the published definition Peng1990_SMP_Stochastic. The formalization commits to the following conventions.

  • The filtration is the natural, uncompleted filtration of WWW. This changes no statement.
  • The state from time ttt (2.2) is the full-horizon state of the control that equals u∗u^*u∗ before ttt.
  • The spike is additive on [t,t+ε)[t,t+\varepsilon)[t,t+ε).
  • Definition 2.1 uses the lower limit, in R‾\overline{\mathbb R}R, along every sequence εk↓0\varepsilon_k\downarrow0εk​↓0, almost surely for each sequence, for every state of u∗u^*u∗ and of each perturbed control. The page writes "lim". That limit need not exist for merely bounded measurable RRR, and the proof of Theorem 3.2 only bounds the quotient from below.
  • Each adjoint BSDE lives on [t,T][t,T][t,T], not on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Equation (3.2) is read entrywise, with symmetric values.
  • Condition (3.4) is encoded version-robustly. Part (a) is the generalized conditional expectation, via Ft\mathcal F_tFt​-sets of full union. Part (b) requires a jointly measurable process that is, for almost every sss, a version of Et[Λ(s;t)]\mathbb E_t[\Lambda(s;t)]Et​[Λ(s;t)] and that tends to 000 as s↓ts\downarrow ts↓t.
  • The O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) estimates carry an explicit constant times ∣v∣2|v|^2∣v∣2, and suprema are taken over rational times.
  • "Essentially bounded" and "a.s., a.e." mean ds⊗dPds\otimes d\mathbb Pds⊗dP-almost everywhere.

The conclusion of the goal is Definition 2.1 itself. It mentions neither Λ\LambdaΛ nor the adjoint processes, so the goal cannot be closed by unfolding. A definition of equilibrium in terms of (3.4) or (3.5) would make Theorem 3.2 trivially true and is ruled out. Condition (3.5) of p. 6 is not a hypothesis of any statement. A degenerate, noise-free example checks that the hypotheses of the goal can hold together.

Contributions are welcome as follows. Proofs of the three milestones are reusable for Missions II and III and for any spike-variation argument. So are general lemmas on linear SDEs and BSDEs over Peng's Itô integral: uniqueness, conditional moment bounds, the Itô product rule, and positivity of linear matrix BSDEs.

Selected references

  • Y. Hu, H. Jin, X. Y. Zhou, Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control, arXiv:1111.0818v1, 2011; SIAM J. Control Optim. 50(3), 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.0818 , https://doi.org/10.1137/110853960
  • S. Peng, A general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control problems, SIAM J. Control Optim. 28 (1990), 966–979. https://doi.org/10.1137/0328054
  • J. Yong, X. Y. Zhou, Stochastic Controls: Hamiltonian Systems and HJB Equations, Springer, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1466-3
  • T. Björk, A. Murgoci, A general theory of Markovian time inconsistent stochastic control problems, SSRN 1694759, 2010. https://ssrn.com/abstract=1694759
  • I. Ekeland, A. Lazrak, Being serious about non-commitment: subgame perfect equilibrium in continuous time, arXiv:math/0604264, 2006. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0604264
  • T. Björk, A. Murgoci, X. Y. Zhou, Mean–variance portfolio optimization with state-dependent risk aversion, Math. Finance 24(1) (2014), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2011.00515.x
  • X. Y. Zhou, D. Li, Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection: a stochastic LQ framework, Appl. Math. Optim. 42 (2000), 19–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002450010003
  • Companion missions: Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Linear–Quadratic Control II (Theorem 4.4) and III (Theorem 5.4), same source.
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Harmonic AnalysisTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Inapproximability Results for MAX-CUT and Other 2-Variable CSPs? 3: Low-Influence Functions Have Level-One Fourier Weight at Most 2/π + CδResearch Paper

Motivation

Fourier analysis of functions on the discrete cube {−1,1}n\{-1,1\}^n{−1,1}n is the main tool behind tight inapproximability results under the Unique Games Conjecture. In the MAX-CUT reduction of Khot, Kindler, Mossel and O'Donnell (SIAM J. Comput. 2007), soundness rests on the Majority Is Stablest theorem: among bounded functions in which no coordinate has large influence, the majority function is asymptotically the most noise stable. That theorem was a conjecture when the paper was written and was proved by Mossel, O'Donnell and Oleszkiewicz (Annals of Math. 2010) using an invariance principle.

Section 6.2 of the paper records special cases of Majority Is Stablest that have short, self-contained proofs. Theorem 6 is the case where the noise parameter ρ\rhoρ tends to 000. There the noise stability is dominated by the Fourier weight at level 1, and the statement says that a bounded function with small influences has level-one weight at most 2/π2/\pi2/π, up to an explicit error linear in the largest influence. Bounds on the level-one weight also appear in Talagrand's work on correlation of monotone sets (Combinatorica 1996), which the paper compares against (its Theorem 18), and the level-one inequality is a standard chapter of the analysis of Boolean functions (O'Donnell 2014).

Setting

Points of the discrete cube {−1,1}n\{-1,1\}^n{−1,1}n are sign vectors x=(x1,…,xn)x=(x_1,\dots,x_n)x=(x1​,…,xn​); following the paper, the bit TRUE is read as −1-1−1 and FALSE as 111. The cube carries the uniform probability measure, so E[g]=2−n∑xg(x)\mathbf E[g]=2^{-n}\sum_x g(x)E[g]=2−n∑x​g(x), and real functions form an inner product space with ⟨f,g⟩=E[fg]\langle f,g\rangle=\mathbf E[fg]⟨f,g⟩=E[fg].

For S⊆[n]S\subseteq[n]S⊆[n] the parity χS(x)=∏i∈Sxi\chi_S(x)=\prod_{i\in S}x_iχS​(x)=∏i∈S​xi​; the parities form an orthonormal basis, and the Fourier coefficient of fff at SSS is f^(S)=⟨f,χS⟩\hat f(S)=\langle f,\chi_S\ranglef^​(S)=⟨f,χS​⟩. The weight of fff at level 1 is

W1(f)=∑∣S∣=1f^(S)2=∑i=1nf^({i})2.W^1(f)=\sum_{|S|=1}\hat f(S)^2=\sum_{i=1}^n\hat f(\{i\})^2 .W1(f)=∣S∣=1∑​f^​(S)2=i=1∑n​f^​({i})2.

The influence of coordinate iii on fff (Definition 2) is

Infi(f)=Ex1,…,xi−1,xi+1,…,xn[Varxi[f]],\mathrm{Inf}_i(f)=\mathop{\mathbf E}_{x_1,\dots,x_{i-1},x_{i+1},\dots,x_n}\big[\mathrm{Var}_{x_i}[f]\big],Infi​(f)=Ex1​,…,xi−1​,xi+1​,…,xn​​[Varxi​​[f]],

the expected variance of fff when all coordinates but xix_ixi​ are fixed at random and xix_ixi​ is a uniform sign. The linear part of fff is ℓ(x)=∑if^({i})xi\ell(x)=\sum_i\hat f(\{i\})x_iℓ(x)=∑i​f^​({i})xi​, and ∥g∥1=E∣g∣\|g\|_1=\mathbf E|g|∥g∥1​=E∣g∣, ∥g∥2=E[g2]\|g\|_2=\sqrt{\mathbf E[g^2]}∥g∥2​=E[g2]​, ∥g∥∞=max⁡x∣g(x)∣\|g\|_\infty=\max_x|g(x)|∥g∥∞​=maxx​∣g(x)∣.

Throughout, C=2(1−2/π)≈0.404C=2\big(1-\sqrt{2/\pi}\big)\approx 0.404C=2(1−2/π​)≈0.404.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 12)

For every nnn, every f:{−1,1}n→[−1,1]f:\{-1,1\}^n\to[-1,1]f:{−1,1}n→[−1,1] and every δ≥0\delta\ge 0δ≥0 with Infi(f)≤δ\mathrm{Inf}_i(f)\le\deltaInfi​(f)≤δ for all iii,

∑∣S∣=1f^(S)2  ≤  2π+Cδ.\sum_{|S|=1}\hat f(S)^2\;\le\;\frac{2}{\pi}+C\delta .∣S∣=1∑​f^​(S)2≤π2​+Cδ.

The constant CCC is explicit, and the goal states it exactly as printed.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 6, p. 25, and Proposition 7.2, p. 16)

  1. For fff with values in [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1]: ∑∣S∣=1f^(S)2=∥ℓ∥22=⟨f,ℓ⟩≤∥f∥∞∥ℓ∥1≤∥ℓ∥1\sum_{|S|=1}\hat f(S)^2=\|\ell\|_2^2=\langle f,\ell\rangle\le\|f\|_\infty\|\ell\|_1\le\|\ell\|_1∑∣S∣=1​f^​(S)2=∥ℓ∥22​=⟨f,ℓ⟩≤∥f∥∞​∥ℓ∥1​≤∥ℓ∥1​.
  2. The König–Schütt–Tomczak-Jaegermann bound: if ∣ai∣≤δ|a_i|\le\delta∣ai​∣≤δ for all iii and ℓ=∑iaixi\ell=\sum_i a_ix_iℓ=∑i​ai​xi​, then
∥ℓ∥1≤2/π ∥ℓ∥2+C2 δ.\|\ell\|_1\le\sqrt{2/\pi}\,\|\ell\|_2+\tfrac C2\,\delta .∥ℓ∥1​≤2/π​∥ℓ∥2​+2C​δ.
  1. The quadratic step: for X,δ≥0X,\delta\ge0X,δ≥0, X2≤2/π X+C2δX^2\le\sqrt{2/\pi}\,X+\tfrac C2\deltaX2≤2/π​X+2C​δ implies X≤1/2π+1/2π+Cδ/2X\le\sqrt{1/2\pi}+\sqrt{1/2\pi+C\delta/2}X≤1/2π​+1/2π+Cδ/2​ and X2≤2/π+CδX^2\le 2/\pi+C\deltaX2≤2/π+Cδ.
  2. Proposition 7.2: Infi(f)=∑S∋if^(S)2\mathrm{Inf}_i(f)=\sum_{S\ni i}\hat f(S)^2Infi​(f)=∑S∋i​f^​(S)2.

Significance

The result. The constant 2/π2/\pi2/π is sharp: majority on nnn variables has influences of order n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 and level-one weight tending to 2/π2/\pi2/π, which is (E∣Z∣)2(\mathbf E|Z|)^2(E∣Z∣)2 for a standard Gaussian ZZZ. Theorem 6 thus identifies the extremal level-one weight of low-influence bounded functions and gives a rate linear in the maximal influence. It is the ρ→0\rho\to0ρ→0 instance of Majority Is Stablest, obtained without the invariance principle, and level-one bounds of this type are used in hardness reductions and in the study of noise sensitivity.

Formalizing it. The milestones together give a complete formal route from bounded functions to the stated bound, except for one step discussed below. They also produce a reusable layer of Boolean Fourier analysis: Fourier coefficients, level weights, influences in their variance form and the Fourier formula for influences. Mathlib contains no development of influences or level weights on the cube, and the platform has none either; the König–Schütt–Tomczak-Jaegermann inequality, a sharp quantitative central limit bound for Rademacher sums (J. Reine Angew. Math. 1999), has no machine-checked proof.

Status. The published proof's first step, ∣f^({i})∣≤Infi(f)|\hat f(\{i\})|\le\mathrm{Inf}_i(f)∣f^​({i})∣≤Infi​(f), is valid for Boolean-valued fff but not for [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1]-valued fff; for [−1,1][-1,1][−1,1]-valued fff the statement is posed as printed. For f=c x1f=c\,x_1f=cx1​ with 0<c<10<c<10<c<1 one has f^({1})=c>c2=Inf1(f)\hat f(\{1\})=c>c^2=\mathrm{Inf}_1(f)f^​({1})=c>c2=Inf1​(f), and the argument as written then yields only 2/π+Cδ2/\pi+C\sqrt\delta2/π+Cδ​. Numerical search over small cubes has found no function violating the printed bound. A proof of the goal for bounded fff, or a counterexample, is therefore a genuine contribution.

Difficulty

The obvious argument replaces ℓ\ellℓ by a Gaussian with the same variance and uses E∣Z∣=2/π\mathbf E|Z|=\sqrt{2/\pi}E∣Z∣=2/π​. A central limit theorem with an error term is needed, and generic Berry–Esseen bounds give an additive error with a constant far from C/2C/2C/2; the exact constant 1−2/π1-\sqrt{2/\pi}1−2/π​ requires the sharp Rademacher-sum inequality, whose proof is a delicate analysis of E∣∑iaixi∣\mathbf E|\sum_ia_ix_i|E∣∑i​ai​xi​∣ as a function of the coefficients. The second obstacle is the passage from influences to coefficients. For bounded fff only f^({i})2≤Infi(f)\hat f(\{i\})^2\le\mathrm{Inf}_i(f)f^​({i})2≤Infi​(f) holds, so a bound on influences controls coefficients only at scale δ\sqrt\deltaδ​; feeding that into the chain loses the linear dependence on δ\deltaδ. Recovering the printed rate for non-Boolean fff needs an idea beyond the published proof.

Formalization scope

A point of the cube is Fin n → Bool, mapped to a sign by pm with pm true = -1 and pm false = 1. Expectations are normalised finite sums, so no measure theory is involved. A function f:{−1,1}n→[−1,1]f:\{-1,1\}^n\to[-1,1]f:{−1,1}n→[−1,1] is a real function with the hypothesis ∀ x, |f x| ≤ 1. The influence is defined as on the page, as the average over the cube of ((f(xi←1)−f(xi←−1))/2)2\big((f(x^{i\leftarrow1})-f(x^{i\leftarrow-1}))/2\big)^2((f(xi←1)−f(xi←−1))/2)2, which is the variance in xix_ixi​; it is not defined by its Fourier formula, which is a milestone. The level-one weight is ∑if^({i})2\sum_i\hat f(\{i\})^2∑i​f^​({i})2. The constant CCC is written out as 2 * (1 - Real.sqrt (2 / Real.pi)); an existentially quantified constant would be a weaker theorem. The case n=0n=0n=0 is allowed.

Two hypotheses are added and disclosed: δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0 in Theorem 6 and in the König–Schütt–Tomczak-Jaegermann bound. For n≥1n\ge1n≥1 each follows from the other hypotheses; for n=0n=0n=0 the influence (resp. coefficient) hypothesis is empty and δ≥0\delta\ge0δ≥0 is what the page assumes.

A trivializing formalization would drop the range hypothesis (then scaled dictators refute the bound and the statement is false), define influence through Fourier coefficients (which makes Proposition 7.2 definitional), or weaken the hypothesis of the goal to a bound on the coefficients ∣f^({i})∣≤δ|\hat f(\{i\})|\le\delta∣f^​({i})∣≤δ; none of these is used here. In particular, the goal is not strengthened to Boolean-valued fff, where the published proof applies verbatim.

Contributions welcome: proofs of Parseval-type identities for the linear part, of Proposition 7.2, of the elementary quadratic step, of the König–Schütt–Tomczak-Jaegermann inequality, and of the goal itself. The cube layer is reusable for any later formalization of Boolean function analysis.

Selected references

  • S. Khot, G. Kindler, E. Mossel, R. O'Donnell, Optimal Inapproximability Results for MAX-CUT and Other 2-Variable CSPs?, SIAM J. Comput. 37(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539705447372
  • E. Mossel, R. O'Donnell, K. Oleszkiewicz, Noise stability of functions with low influences: invariance and optimality, Annals of Mathematics 171(1), 2010. https://doi.org/10.4007/annals.2010.171.295
  • H. König, C. Schütt, N. Tomczak-Jaegermann, Projection constants of symmetric spaces and variants of Khintchine's inequality, J. Reine Angew. Math. 511, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1515/crll.1999.511.1
  • M. Talagrand, How much are increasing sets positively correlated?, Combinatorica 16(2), 1996. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01844850
  • R. O'Donnell, Analysis of Boolean Functions, Cambridge University Press, 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/2105.10386
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives II: With a Perfect Demand Signal the Transfer Price c̄(ψ) Makes the Quantity Flexibility Contract System-EfficientResearch Paper

Motivation

A manufacturer must commit to production before its retail customer knows what the market will demand, while the customer would rather postpone its purchase until better information arrives. Left uncoordinated, each firm protects itself: the customer inflates forecasts it is not bound by, and the manufacturer, discounting those forecasts, builds less than the supply chain as a whole should. Quantity flexibility (QF) contracts, used in practice in the electronics and computer industries (Sun Microsystems, Solectron, Nippon Otis and others are cited in the paper), address this by tying the customer's forecast to a band: the manufacturer guarantees supply up to a percentage above the forecast, and the customer promises to buy at least a percentage below it.

Tsay (1999) gives a two-stage model of such a contract with a demand signal that arrives between production and purchase, shows that a supply chain without commitment underproduces, and characterizes when a QF contract restores efficiency. This mission formalizes the efficiency result for the case in which the signal predicts demand perfectly (Proposition 6(a)), together with the steps of the equilibrium that it rests on.

Setting

A manufacturer (EM) produces at unit cost mmm and sells to a retailer at unit transfer price ccc; the retailer sells at price ppp, unsold units are salvaged at uuu at either site, and each unit of unmet demand costs a goodwill loss sss. The standing assumptions are p>m>0p > m > 0p>m>0, u<mu < mu<m and s≥0s \ge 0s≥0.

Before production, the retailer states a forecast q≥0q \ge 0q≥0. A QF contract {c,(α,ω)}\{c,(\alpha,\omega)\}{c,(α,ω)} with ω∈[0,1]\omega\in[0,1]ω∈[0,1] and α≥−ω\alpha\ge-\omegaα≥−ω obliges the EM to make up to q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α) available and the retailer to buy at least q(1−ω)q(1-\omega)q(1−ω). The EM then builds QQQ. A demand signal μ\muμ with distribution function Θ\ThetaΘ is observed, the retailer buys rrr, and market demand is filled from the retailer's stock. In this mission the signal is perfect (σε=0\sigma_\varepsilon = 0σε​=0): market demand equals μ\muμ, so its distribution FFF equals Θ\ThetaΘ.

Given μ\muμ, the retailer's profit from buying rrr is

G(r∣μ)=pmin⁡[μ,r]−c r−s[μ−r]++u[r−μ]+,G(r\mid\mu) = p\min[\mu,r] - c\,r - s[\mu-r]^+ + u[r-\mu]^+,G(r∣μ)=pmin[μ,r]−cr−s[μ−r]++u[r−μ]+,

and it buys rQF∗=μ⊥[q(1−ω),Q]r^*_{QF} = \mu\perp[q(1-\omega),Q]rQF∗​=μ⊥[q(1−ω),Q], the point of the interval closest to μ\muμ. The EM's expected profit (2) is πEM,QF(Q;q)=(c−u)Eμ{rQF∗}−(m−u)Q\pi_{EM,QF}(Q;q) = (c-u)E_\mu\{r^*_{QF}\} - (m-u)QπEM,QF​(Q;q)=(c−u)Eμ​{rQF∗​}−(m−u)Q. The retailer's forecast problem maximizes πR,QF(q)=Eμ{G(rQF∗∣μ)}\pi_{R,QF}(q) = E_\mu\{G(r^*_{QF}\mid\mu)\}πR,QF​(q)=Eμ​{G(rQF∗​∣μ)} with the EM building q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α). A central planner earns ΠCC(Q)=Eμ{pmin⁡[μ,Q]−s[μ−Q]++u[Q−μ]+}−mQ\Pi_{CC}(Q) = E_\mu\{p\min[\mu,Q]-s[\mu-Q]^+ + u[Q-\mu]^+\} - mQΠCC​(Q)=Eμ​{pmin[μ,Q]−s[μ−Q]++u[Q−μ]+}−mQ, maximized at

QCC∗=F−1 ⁣(p+s−mp+s−u).Q^*_{CC} = F^{-1}\!\left(\frac{p+s-m}{p+s-u}\right).QCC∗​=F−1(p+s−up+s−m​).

The total flexibility of the contract is ψ=(1+α)/(1−ω)\psi = (1+\alpha)/(1-\omega)ψ=(1+α)/(1−ω).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6(a)

With σε=0\sigma_\varepsilon = 0σε​=0, the QF contract with flexibility ψ\psiψ and transfer price

cˉ(ψ)=u+m−u1ψF ⁣(1ψF−1 ⁣(p+s−mp+s−u))+m−up+s−u(4)\bar c(\psi) = u + \frac{m-u}{\dfrac1\psi F\!\left(\dfrac1\psi F^{-1}\!\left(\dfrac{p+s-m}{p+s-u}\right)\right) + \dfrac{m-u}{p+s-u}} \tag{4}cˉ(ψ)=u+ψ1​F(ψ1​F−1(p+s−up+s−m​))+p+s−um−u​m−u​(4)

is system-efficient: the retailer's unique optimal forecast is q^=QCC∗/(1+α)\hat q = Q^*_{CC}/(1+\alpha)q^​=QCC∗​/(1+α), the EM's unique optimal production given q^\hat qq^​ is q^(1+α)=QCC∗\hat q(1+\alpha) = Q^*_{CC}q^​(1+α)=QCC∗​, and the resulting expected system profit equals max⁡QΠCC(Q)\max_Q \Pi_{CC}(Q)maxQ​ΠCC​(Q).

Milestones

  1. §4: QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​ exists and is the unique maximizer of ΠCC\Pi_{CC}ΠCC​.
  2. §6.1: given μ\muμ, the retailer's unique optimal purchase in [a,b][a,b][a,b] is μ⊥[a,b]\mu\perp[a,b]μ⊥[a,b].
  3. Proposition 3(a): for ω<1\omega<1ω<1, the optimal forecast qQF∗q^*_{QF}qQF∗​ is strictly positive, finite, and the unique solution of the first-order condition (3).
  4. §7: for any forecast q≥0q\ge0q≥0, expected system profit equals ΠCC(q(1+α))\Pi_{CC}(q(1+\alpha))ΠCC​(q(1+α)); hence it is maximal when the production level q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α) matches QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​.

Significance

The result shows that one contract form, by choosing the transfer price as a function of the flexibility, yields a whole menu of contracts each of which coordinates the supply chain, so that the two firms can trade price against flexibility without losing system profit. Its corollaries in the paper, that any split of expected profit is achievable by some efficient contract and that more flexibility shifts profit to the manufacturer, rest on (4).

The paper prints no proofs ("All proofs are omitted due to space limitations", p. 1341). A machine-checked development supplies them, makes explicit the regularity the argument needs (finite variance, a continuous and strictly increasing Θ\ThetaΘ, a positive efficient quantity), and gives reusable statements about newsvendor objectives with a clipped purchase. To our knowledge none of these results has been formalized before; the platform's quantity-flexibility theorems in other models (no manufacturer production stage, α=0\alpha = 0α=0, retailer side only) do not cover them.

Difficulty

Each firm optimizes its own objective, and the efficient price must work for both at once. Making the retailer's first-order condition hold at q^\hat qq^​ pins down ccc, so nothing is left to adjust for the EM, whose incentive to build more than the contracted q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α) has to be ruled out separately at that same price. The retailer's objective is an expectation of a non-smooth function of a clipped purchase, so its derivative must be computed through the distribution of μ\muμ on two moving thresholds q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α) and q(1−ω)q(1-\omega)q(1−ω), and strict concavity must come from the strict increase of Θ\ThetaΘ rather than from a density.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace TsayQF.EffQF. The law of μ\muμ is a probability measure ν\nuν on R\mathbb RR with μ∈L2(ν)\mu\in L^2(\nu)μ∈L2(ν), whose distribution function cdf ν is differentiable and strictly increasing on R\mathbb RR (the paper's "differentiable and invertible"). Expectations are Bochner integrals; finite variance makes every integrand integrable. Inverse distribution functions are not used: QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​ enters as a real number with the hypothesis F(QCC∗)=κSF(Q^*_{CC}) = \kappa_SF(QCC∗​)=κS​, which determines it uniquely, and (4) is defined in its printed shape. Optimality is IsMaxOn over the decision's natural set: forecasts in [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), the EM's production in [q(1+α),∞)[q(1+\alpha),\infty)[q(1+α),∞), purchases in [q(1−ω),Q][q(1-\omega),Q][q(1−ω),Q], central production in R\mathbb RR.

Hypotheses made explicit: QCC∗>0Q^*_{CC} > 0QCC∗​>0 in the goal and a positive marginal value of the forecast at q=0q=0q=0 in Proposition 3(a), both standing for the paper's presumption that demand is almost certainly nonnegative; ω<1\omega<1ω<1 (Proposition 3's case). The transfer price is only required to satisfy u<c<p+su<c<p+su<c<p+s rather than m<c<pm<c<pm<c<p, because cˉ(ψ)\bar c(\psi)cˉ(ψ) can exceed ppp when s>0s>0s>0. The milestones are the σε=0\sigma_\varepsilon = 0σε​=0 instances of the paper's general statements.

Two modelling choices are fixed. The retailer's forecast objective takes the EM's production to be q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α), as §6.1 does after Proposition 2; the full game in which the retailer anticipates other EM responses is not modelled, and the goal instead verifies that the EM's unique best response at cˉ(ψ)\bar c(\psi)cˉ(ψ) is exactly q(1+α)q(1+\alpha)q(1+α). The efficient price is the explicit formula (4), not "a price that makes QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​ optimal", which would make the goal a tautology; likewise system efficiency is stated as an inequality against ΠCC\Pi_{CC}ΠCC​ at every production level, not by definition.

Needed infrastructure: derivatives of expectations of piecewise-linear functions of a clipped variable, and the newsvendor fractile characterization. Both are reusable for other contract models. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Tsay, The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives, Management Science 45(10):1339–1358, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1339
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in OR & MS vol. 11, 2003, §6.2.5. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • L. V. Snyder and Z.-J. M. Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, Wiley, 2nd ed. 2019, Ch. 14. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119584445
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives I: Without Commitment the Manufacturer Underproduces for Every Transfer Price and the Supply Chain Is InefficientResearch Paper

Motivation

A manufacturer must commit to production before a retailer knows how much it will buy. In practice the retailer sends a forecast first, and the manufacturer plans against it. When the forecast binds neither party, the retailer has no reason to report it honestly, and the manufacturer has no reason to plan for the market rather than for its own margin. Purchasing managers have described this to Tsay directly, and Lee, Padmanabhan and Whang (1997) document such "phantom ordering" in several case studies.

A. A. Tsay, The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives (Management Science, 1999), models the situation as a two-stage newsvendor game with a demand-information update between production and purchase. Its first result, Proposition 1, is the benchmark the rest of the paper builds on. Even when both parties share the same beliefs about demand, a linear transfer price alone leaves the manufacturer underproducing relative to a central planner, and the supply chain loses expected profit, for every transfer price. That inefficiency motivates the quantity flexibility (QF) contract studied in the remainder of the paper and in the companion mission of this series.

Setting

Costs. The retail price is ppp and the unit transfer price paid by the retailer to the manufacturer (the EM) is ccc. The unit production cost is mmm, the unit salvage value is uuu (the same for either party), and the unit goodwill loss on unmet demand is sss. The paper's standing assumptions (§3.1, p. 1344) are

p>c>m>0,u<m,s≥0.p > c > m > 0,\qquad u < m,\qquad s \ge 0 .p>c>m>0,u<m,s≥0.

Three critical fractiles recur:

κR=p+s−cp+s−u,κEM=c−mc−u,κS=p+s−mp+s−u.\kappa_R = \frac{p+s-c}{p+s-u},\qquad \kappa_{EM} = \frac{c-m}{c-u},\qquad \kappa_S = \frac{p+s-m}{p+s-u}.κR​=p+s−up+s−c​,κEM​=c−uc−m​,κS​=p+s−up+s−m​.

Demand (§3.3). Market demand is X=μ+εX = \mu + \varepsilonX=μ+ε. The signal μ\muμ has distribution function Θ\ThetaΘ, which is differentiable and strictly increasing, and finite variance. The error ε∼N(0,σε2)\varepsilon \sim N(0,\sigma_\varepsilon^2)ε∼N(0,σε2​) is independent of μ\muμ. FFF is the distribution function of XXX, Φ\PhiΦ is the standard normal distribution function, and zε=Φ−1(κR)z_\varepsilon = \Phi^{-1}(\kappa_R)zε​=Φ−1(κR​).

Timing (§3.2). The EM produces QQQ knowing only the prior. Then μ\muμ is observed and the retailer buys r≤Qr \le Qr≤Q. Then XXX is realized, and both parties salvage their surplus. Given μ\muμ, the retailer's expected profit from purchase rrr is

G(r∣μ)=EX∣μ{pmin⁡[X,r]−c r−s[X−r]++u[r−X]+}.(1)G(r\mid\mu) = E_{X\mid\mu}\{p\min[X,r] - c\,r - s[X-r]^+ + u[r-X]^+\}. \tag{1}G(r∣μ)=EX∣μ​{pmin[X,r]−cr−s[X−r]++u[r−X]+}.(1)

Without commitment the retailer buys rNC∗(Q,μ)=min⁡[μ+zεσε,Q]r^*_{NC}(Q,\mu) = \min[\mu + z_\varepsilon\sigma_\varepsilon, Q]rNC∗​(Q,μ)=min[μ+zε​σε​,Q]. The EM's expected profit is

πEM,NC(Q)=(c−u) Eμ rNC∗(Q,μ)−(m−u) Q,\pi_{EM,NC}(Q) = (c-u)\,E_\mu\, r^*_{NC}(Q,\mu) - (m-u)\,Q,πEM,NC​(Q)=(c−u)Eμ​rNC∗​(Q,μ)−(m−u)Q,

and the retailer's is πR,NC(Q)=Eμ G(rNC∗(Q,μ)∣μ)\pi_{R,NC}(Q) = E_\mu\, G(r^*_{NC}(Q,\mu)\mid\mu)πR,NC​(Q)=Eμ​G(rNC∗​(Q,μ)∣μ). A central planner producing QQQ before the signal earns

ΠCC(Q)=EX{pmin⁡[X,Q]−s[X−Q]++u[Q−X]+}−mQ.\Pi_{CC}(Q) = E_X\{p\min[X,Q] - s[X-Q]^+ + u[Q-X]^+\} - mQ .ΠCC​(Q)=EX​{pmin[X,Q]−s[X−Q]++u[Q−X]+}−mQ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1 (p. 1347)

Let QNC∗Q^*_{NC}QNC∗​ maximize πEM,NC\pi_{EM,NC}πEM,NC​ and QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​ maximize ΠCC\Pi_{CC}ΠCC​. Then, for every transfer price ccc admitted by the standing assumptions,

QNC∗<QCC∗andπR,NC(QNC∗)+πEM,NC(QNC∗)<ΠCC(QCC∗).Q^*_{NC} < Q^*_{CC}\qquad\text{and}\qquad \pi_{R,NC}(Q^*_{NC}) + \pi_{EM,NC}(Q^*_{NC}) < \Pi_{CC}(Q^*_{CC}).QNC∗​<QCC∗​andπR,NC​(QNC∗​)+πEM,NC​(QNC∗​)<ΠCC​(QCC∗​).

Milestones

  1. §4, p. 1345. The centralized optimum exists and is unique:
QCC∗=F−1 ⁣(p+s−mp+s−u).Q^*_{CC} = F^{-1}\!\left(\frac{p+s-m}{p+s-u}\right).QCC∗​=F−1(p+s−up+s−m​).
  1. §5.1, (1), p. 1346. The closed form
G(r∣μ)=(p+s−c)r−sμ−(p+s−u)EX∣μ[r−X]+,G(r\mid\mu) = (p+s-c)r - s\mu - (p+s-u)E_{X\mid\mu}[r-X]^+ ,G(r∣μ)=(p+s−c)r−sμ−(p+s−u)EX∣μ​[r−X]+,

and the retailer's optimal purchase under r≤Qr \le Qr≤Q is min⁡[μ+zεσε,Q]\min[\mu + z_\varepsilon\sigma_\varepsilon, Q]min[μ+zε​σε​,Q]. 3. §5.2, p. 1347. The EM's optimal production exists and is unique:

QNC∗=Θ−1 ⁣(c−mc−u)+zεσε.Q^*_{NC} = \Theta^{-1}\!\left(\frac{c-m}{c-u}\right) + z_\varepsilon\sigma_\varepsilon .QNC∗​=Θ−1(c−uc−m​)+zε​σε​.

Significance

Proposition 1 shows that sharing demand information does not remove inefficiency. Under common beliefs and with no commitment, no linear transfer price makes the decentralized chain efficient. Adjusting ccc moves profit between the parties but cannot recover the planner's expected profit. This is the reason the paper studies richer contracts, and the efficiency result for the QF contract (the paper's Proposition 6) is measured against the benchmark QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​ defined here.

The paper prints no proofs ("All proofs are omitted due to space limitations", p. 1341). A machine-checked development therefore supplies arguments the published record does not contain. It also exhibits the exact hypotheses the result needs. In particular it covers the degenerate case σε=0\sigma_\varepsilon = 0σε​=0, where the signal is perfect. No part of this mission has a prior formal proof. Newsvendor critical-fractile results exist on Prove2Me for single-decision models, but without the production stage and information update used here.

Difficulty

The EM and the planner solve newsvendor problems against different demand laws. The EM faces the retailer's purchase μ+zεσε\mu + z_\varepsilon\sigma_\varepsilonμ+zε​σε​, while the planner faces X=μ+εX = \mu + \varepsilonX=μ+ε. Their fractiles are κEM\kappa_{EM}κEM​ and κS\kappa_SκS​. The obvious comparison, κEM<κS\kappa_{EM} < \kappa_SκEM​<κS​, settles the case σε=0\sigma_\varepsilon = 0σε​=0 only. For σε>0\sigma_\varepsilon > 0σε​>0 the two quantities are inverse distribution functions of different random variables. zεz_\varepsilonzε​ may be negative, and the planner's distribution is a convolution. A comparison of fractiles alone therefore does not order QNC∗Q^*_{NC}QNC∗​ and QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​. The strict profit gap also needs more than optimality of QCC∗Q^*_{CC}QCC∗​: it requires comparing the decentralized system profit at QNC∗Q^*_{NC}QNC∗​ with the planner's profit at the same production, and then using uniqueness of the planner's optimum.

The analytic infrastructure is also substantial. It includes differentiating expectations of piecewise-linear functions under a Gaussian law and under a general prior, continuity and strict monotonicity of a convolution's distribution function, and existence of a root of F(Q)=κSF(Q) = \kappa_SF(Q)=κS​.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace TsayQF.NoCommit, in one definitions file Model.

  • Costs are a structure Data with fields p,c,m,u,s∈Rp, c, m, u, s \in \mathbb Rp,c,m,u,s∈R and the standing assumptions (i)–(iii) as fields. "For any ccc" is quantification over all Data. No sign is imposed on uuu.
  • The prior is a probability measure ν on ℝ; Θ\ThetaΘ is cdf ν. "Differentiable and invertible" is Differentiable ℝ (cdf ν) together with StrictMono (cdf ν), and "mean and variance" is MemLp id 2 ν.
  • The error variance is v : ℝ≥0, so σε=v\sigma_\varepsilon = \sqrt vσε​=v​ and v = 0 is allowed. The law of XXX is the pushforward of ν.prod (gaussianReal 0 v) under addition, and given μ\muμ demand has law gaussianReal μ v.
  • Inverse distribution functions are not Lean functions here. zεz_\varepsilonzε​ is a real z with hypothesis cdf (gaussianReal 0 1) z = kR D. The milestones state existence of a solution of each fractile equation and characterize the maximizers by it.
  • Expectations are Bochner integrals. Finite variance of μ\muμ makes every integrand integrable, so no expectation silently defaults to zero.
  • Optimality is IsMaxOn over Set.univ for productions and over Set.Iic Q for the purchase. Productions range over R\mathbb RR; the paper's presumption that μ\muμ and XXX are almost certainly nonnegative is not imposed, because no result here needs it.
  • The goal quantifies over arbitrary maximizers. Milestones 1 and 3 show that maximizers exist, so the goal is not vacuous. A sorry-free sanity file checks the paper's §8 data (p,c,m,u,s)=(15,10,6,3,0)(p,c,m,u,s) = (15,10,6,3,0)(p,c,m,u,s)=(15,10,6,3,0) and shows that a normal prior satisfies the hypotheses on Θ\ThetaΘ.

The goal must not be weakened to non-strict inequalities, and the EM's demand must remain the retailer's purchase min⁡[μ+zεσε,Q]\min[\mu + z_\varepsilon\sigma_\varepsilon, Q]min[μ+zε​σε​,Q], not market demand. Either change trivializes the result or changes it. Reusable pieces are the newsvendor critical-fractile characterization for a general continuous strictly increasing distribution, and monotonicity and continuity of the distribution function of a sum of independent variables with one Gaussian summand. Proofs of the milestones as standalone lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Tsay, The Quantity Flexibility Contract and Supplier-Customer Incentives, Management Science 45(10):1339–1358, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.10.1339
  • H. L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan, S. Whang, The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains, Sloan Management Review 38(3):93–102, 1997. https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-bullwhip-effect-in-supply-chains/
  • A. V. Iyer, M. E. Bergen, Quick Response in Manufacturer-Retailer Channels, Management Science 43(4):559–570, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.559
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
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Numerical AnalysisStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Convergence of an Explicit Numerical Method for SDEs with Nonglobally Lipschitz Continuous Coefficients: The Tamed Euler Scheme Converges to the SDE Solution in Uniform Lp with Order 1/2Research Paper

Motivation

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are simulated almost always by time-stepping schemes, and the cheapest and most widely used is the explicit Euler (Euler–Maruyama) scheme. Its strong convergence with order 12\tfrac1221​ is classical when the coefficients are globally Lipschitz. Many models in applications are not: Langevin dynamics with confining potentials, stochastic Ginzburg–Landau equations, and population or volatility models have drifts such as μ(x)=x−x3\mu(x)=x-x^3μ(x)=x−x3 that grow superlinearly.

For such drifts the explicit Euler scheme fails. Hutzenthaler, Jentzen and Kloeden showed in 2011 (Proc. R. Soc. A 467) that its absolute moments diverge to infinity whenever the drift or the diffusion grows superlinearly, so it does not converge in LpL^pLp. Implicit schemes do converge (Higham, Mao and Stuart, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 40, 2002), but each step requires solving a nonlinear equation.

The paper of this mission (Hutzenthaler, Jentzen and Kloeden, Ann. Appl. Probab. 22(4), 2012) introduces a tamed Euler scheme: an explicit method that costs the same as the Euler scheme, modified by a second-order term in the drift. It proves strong convergence with order 12\tfrac1221​ under a one-sided Lipschitz drift whose derivative grows at most polynomially. The scheme started a line of work on tamed and truncated methods, among them Sabanis's schemes that tame drift and diffusion together for superlinearly growing diffusion coefficients (Ann. Appl. Probab. 26(4), 2016), formalized on this platform in the series "Euler Approximations with Varying Coefficients".

Setting

Fix T∈(0,∞)T\in(0,\infty)T∈(0,∞) and d,m∈N={1,2,… }d,m\in\mathbb N=\{1,2,\dots\}d,m∈N={1,2,…}. Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space with a filtration (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​), and let WWW be an mmm-dimensional standard (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​)-Brownian motion. On Rk\mathbb R^kRk, ∥v∥\|v\|∥v∥ is the Euclidean norm and ⟨v,w⟩\langle v,w\rangle⟨v,w⟩ the inner product. For a matrix AAA, ∥A∥=sup⁡∥v∥≤1∥Av∥\|A\|=\sup_{\|v\|\le1}\|Av\|∥A∥=sup∥v∥≤1​∥Av∥ is the operator norm.

The initial value ξ:Ω→Rd\xi:\Omega\to\mathbb R^dξ:Ω→Rd is F0\mathcal F_0F0​-measurable with E∥ξ∥p<∞\mathbb E\|\xi\|^p<\inftyE∥ξ∥p<∞ for every p≥1p\ge1p≥1. The drift μ:Rd→Rd\mu:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^dμ:Rd→Rd is continuously differentiable and the diffusion is σ:Rd→Rd×m\sigma:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb R^{d\times m}σ:Rd→Rd×m. There is one constant c>0c>0c>0 with

∥μ′(x)∥≤c(1+∥x∥c),∥σ(x)−σ(y)∥≤c∥x−y∥,⟨x−y,μ(x)−μ(y)⟩≤c∥x−y∥2\|\mu'(x)\|\le c(1+\|x\|^c),\qquad \|\sigma(x)-\sigma(y)\|\le c\|x-y\|,\qquad \langle x-y,\mu(x)-\mu(y)\rangle\le c\|x-y\|^2∥μ′(x)∥≤c(1+∥x∥c),∥σ(x)−σ(y)∥≤c∥x−y∥,⟨x−y,μ(x)−μ(y)⟩≤c∥x−y∥2

for all x,yx,yx,y. The exact solution XXX is an adapted process with continuous paths and

Xt=ξ+∫0tμ(Xs) ds+∫0tσ(Xs) dWs,t∈[0,T], P-a.s.X_t=\xi+\int_0^t\mu(X_s)\,ds+\int_0^t\sigma(X_s)\,dW_s,\qquad t\in[0,T],\ \mathbb P\text{-a.s.}Xt​=ξ+∫0t​μ(Xs​)ds+∫0t​σ(Xs​)dWs​,t∈[0,T], P-a.s.

For N∈NN\in\mathbb NN∈N, let ΔWnN=W(n+1)T/N−WnT/N\Delta W^N_n=W_{(n+1)T/N}-W_{nT/N}ΔWnN​=W(n+1)T/N​−WnT/N​. The tamed Euler scheme is Y0N=ξY^N_0=\xiY0N​=ξ and

Yn+1N=YnN+TN μ(YnN)1+TN∥μ(YnN)∥+σ(YnN) ΔWnN,n∈{0,…,N−1}.Y^N_{n+1}=Y^N_n+\frac{\tfrac TN\,\mu(Y^N_n)}{1+\tfrac TN\|\mu(Y^N_n)\|}+\sigma(Y^N_n)\,\Delta W^N_n,\qquad n\in\{0,\dots,N-1\}.Yn+1N​=YnN​+1+NT​∥μ(YnN​)∥NT​μ(YnN​)​+σ(YnN​)ΔWnN​,n∈{0,…,N−1}.

On t∈[nT/N,(n+1)T/N]t\in[nT/N,(n+1)T/N]t∈[nT/N,(n+1)T/N] its interpolation is

YˉtN=YnN+(t−nT/N) μ(YnN)1+TN∥μ(YnN)∥+σ(YnN)(Wt−WnT/N).\bar Y^N_t=Y^N_n+\frac{(t-nT/N)\,\mu(Y^N_n)}{1+\tfrac TN\|\mu(Y^N_n)\|}+\sigma(Y^N_n)(W_t-W_{nT/N}).YˉtN​=YnN​+1+NT​∥μ(YnN​)∥(t−nT/N)μ(YnN​)​+σ(YnN​)(Wt​−WnT/N​).

In Lean, states live in EthierKurtz.SDEState d, σ\sigmaσ takes values in Matrix (Fin d) (Fin m) ℝ, the standing hypotheses are the structures Coefficients and Setting, and the scheme is Y, Ybar, all in the namespace TamedEuler.Convergence.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

There is a family Cp∈[0,∞)C_p\in[0,\infty)Cp​∈[0,∞), p∈[1,∞)p\in[1,\infty)p∈[1,∞), such that for every solution XXX

(E[sup⁡t∈[0,T]∥Xt−YˉtN∥p])1/p≤Cp N−1/2for all N∈N, p∈[1,∞).\Big(\mathbb E\Big[\sup_{t\in[0,T]}\|X_t-\bar Y^N_t\|^p\Big]\Big)^{1/p}\le C_p\,N^{-1/2}\qquad\text{for all }N\in\mathbb N,\ p\in[1,\infty).(E[t∈[0,T]sup​∥Xt​−YˉtN​∥p])1/p≤Cp​N−1/2for all N∈N, p∈[1,∞).

The constants are left unspecified; only the order 12\tfrac1221​ is asserted.

Milestones: Lemmas 3.1–3.10

These are the ten lemmas the proof rests on, in the paper's order:

  1. the pathwise dominator lemma 1ΩnN∥YnN∥≤DnN\mathbb 1_{\Omega^N_n}\|Y^N_n\|\le D^N_n1ΩnN​​∥YnN​∥≤DnN​ (3.1);
  2. Gaussian and Brownian exponential moments (3.2, 3.3, 3.4);
  3. moments of the dominating processes DnND^N_nDnN​ (3.5);
  4. the decay of P[(ΩNN)c]\mathbb P[(\Omega^N_N)^c]P[(ΩNN​)c] faster than every power of NNN (3.6);
  5. continuous- and discrete-time Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequalities with constant ppp (3.7, 3.8);
  6. the uniform moment bounds sup⁡Nsup⁡n≤NE∥YnN∥p<∞\sup_N\sup_{n\le N}\mathbb E\|Y^N_n\|^p<\inftysupN​supn≤N​E∥YnN​∥p<∞ (3.9), and the same for μ(YnN)\mu(Y^N_n)μ(YnN​) and σ(YnN)\sigma(Y^N_n)σ(YnN​) (3.10).

Significance

The theorem gives an explicit scheme whose cost per step is the Euler cost and whose strong error is O(N−1/2)O(N^{-1/2})O(N−1/2) in every LpL^pLp, uniformly in time, for the superlinear drifts on which the explicit Euler scheme diverges. Strong error bounds of this kind are what multilevel Monte Carlo (Giles 2008) needs, as the paper notes on p. 3: its complexity analysis requires strong convergence of the coarse and fine levels, and the explicit Euler scheme supplies none for these equations. The moment bound of Lemma 3.9 answers, for the tamed scheme, the open problem Higham, Mao and Stuart formulated in 2002 on when moment bounds hold for explicit methods (quoted on p. 8).

The result is proved in the paper; it has not been formalized. The mission formalizes the statement, its ten lemmas and the scheme. The dominator construction (13)–(14) is a pathwise argument that can be checked independently of the probability. The two Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequalities with the explicit constant ppp are reusable tools for any numerical analysis of SDEs.

Difficulty

Once the moments of YnNY^N_nYnN​ are bounded uniformly in NNN, the convergence proof follows the globally Lipschitz pattern: an Itô or Gronwall argument on X−YˉNX-\bar Y^NX−YˉN. The difficulty is the moment bound itself. The obvious approach is a Gronwall recursion for E∥Yn+1N∥p\mathbb E\|Y^N_{n+1}\|^pE∥Yn+1N​∥p in terms of E∥YnN∥p\mathbb E\|Y^N_n\|^pE∥YnN​∥p. For superlinear μ\muμ it does not close: the term ∥μ(YnN)∥2(T/N)2\|\mu(Y^N_n)\|^2(T/N)^2∥μ(YnN​)∥2(T/N)2 grows faster than ∥YnN∥2\|Y^N_n\|^2∥YnN​∥2, and for the untamed scheme the moments do in fact diverge. A newcomer's first idea, using the one-sided Lipschitz bound in expectation, fails for the same reason. The paper instead dominates the scheme pathwise on events ΩnN\Omega^N_nΩnN​ and controls the rare complement separately (Lemmas 3.1, 3.5, 3.6).

Formalization scope

The Lean development commits to the following conventions.

  • Normal filtration. Read as a right-continuous filtration (ℱ.IsRightContinuous) together with adaptedness to its P\mathbb PP-completion, which is how the published SabanisEuler.Shared.IsSolution treats completeness.
  • Brownian motion. SabanisEuler.Shared.IsWienerMartingale, defined on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) rather than [0,T][0,T][0,T]; this is the usual extension. Time is ℝ≥0.
  • The solution XXX. Any process satisfying the published IsSolution relation, whose stochastic integral is the Ethier–Kurtz Brownian Itô-integral relation. Existence and uniqueness are cited by the paper, not claimed. σ\sigmaσ enters IsSolution entrywise through toDiffusion. Every norm of σ\sigmaσ in a hypothesis or conclusion is the operator norm opNorm.
  • The constant ccc. One real c>0c>0c>0 is both constant and exponent; ∥x∥c\|x\|^c∥x∥c and N1/(2c)N^{1/(2c)}N1/(2c) are real powers.
  • Indices. N={1,2,… }\mathbb N=\{1,2,\dots\}N={1,2,…}: every statement has N≥1N\ge1N≥1 and n≤Nn\le Nn≤N, and d,m≥1d,m\ge1d,m≥1.
  • Interpolation cell. In (10), ttt uses the cell n=min⁡(⌊tN/T⌋,N−1)n=\min(\lfloor tN/T\rfloor,N-1)n=min(⌊tN/T⌋,N−1), so t=Tt=Tt=T uses the last cell.
  • (13) and (14). The supremum over uuu in (13) is a finite maximum. The suprema in (14) are written "for all k<nk<nk<n", so Ω0N=Ω\Omega^N_0=\OmegaΩ0N​=Ω.
  • Moments. Every expectation, LpL^pLp norm and "<∞<\infty<∞" is stated in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with lintegral or eLpNorm, never as a Bochner integral that could default to 000.
  • Lemma 3.1. Stated pathwise for every ω\omegaω and an arbitrary path WWW.
  • Lemma 3.7. The published Itô relation demands pathwise square-integrability of the integrand. This is stronger than the printed almost-sure condition, and the deviation is disclosed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the scheme is (8) exactly, with only the drift tamed and the step size T/NT/NT/N. The error is taken against the same Brownian path that drives XXX. The setting is satisfiable for the paper's example μ(x)=x−x3\mu(x)=x-x^3μ(x)=x−x3, σ(x)=x\sigma(x)=xσ(x)=x with c=3c=3c=3 (checked in a sorry-free verification file, given any Brownian motion). Replacing the Itô integral by a postulated operator or a pathwise integral is not admitted.

A complete development needs:

  • Gaussian exponential moments;
  • discrete and continuous BDG inequalities with explicit constants for the Ethier–Kurtz Itô integral;
  • an Itô-type or Gronwall argument for X−YˉNX-\bar Y^NX−YˉN.

The BDG inequalities and the Gaussian moment identity are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to any lemma, or to the stochastic-calculus infrastructure underneath, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Hutzenthaler, A. Jentzen, P. E. Kloeden, Strong convergence of an explicit numerical method for SDEs with nonglobally Lipschitz continuous coefficients, Ann. Appl. Probab. 22(4), 1611–1641, 2012. https://arxiv.org/abs/1010.3756 (DOI 10.1214/11-AAP803)
  • M. Hutzenthaler, A. Jentzen, P. E. Kloeden, Strong and weak divergence in finite time of Euler's method for stochastic differential equations with non-globally Lipschitz continuous coefficients, Proc. R. Soc. A 467, 1563–1576, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2010.0348
  • D. J. Higham, X. Mao, A. M. Stuart, Strong convergence of Euler-type methods for nonlinear stochastic differential equations, SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 40(3), 1041–1063, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0036142901389530
  • S. Sabanis, Euler approximations with varying coefficients: the case of superlinearly growing diffusion coefficients, Ann. Appl. Probab. 26(4), 2083–2105, 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1308.1796
  • X. Mao, Stochastic Differential Equations and Their Applications, Horwood, 1997 (Theorem 2.4.1: existence and uniqueness, cited on p. 2). https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=1475218
  • M. B. Giles, Multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation, Oper. Res. 56, 607–617, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0496
18 thms1 active userReviewed
Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Single-Item Inventory Model for a Nonstationary Demand Process: With Adaptive Base-Stock Control at Two Stages, Upstream Inventory Is N(y₀, σ²∑_{i<K}(1+(L+i)α)²)Research Paper

Motivation

Classical safety-stock formulas assume that demand is stationary: independent and identically distributed around a fixed mean. Many products do not behave that way. Their demand level drifts, and the forecast has to follow it. Graves (A single-item inventory model for a nonstationary demand process, Manuf. Serv. Oper. Manag. 1(1):50–61, 1999) works out what such drift costs in inventory when it is modelled by the simplest nonstationary time series used in forecasting practice. The model is the integrated moving average process of order (0,1,1)(0,1,1)(0,1,1), for which the exponentially weighted moving average is the optimal forecast (Muth, 1960; Box, Jenkins and Reinsel, 1994).

The paper answers two questions. For one stage under an adaptive base-stock policy, it gives the exact distribution of the inventory, and hence the safety stock. For two stages in series, it shows that the order stream the downstream stage passes upstream is again of the same type, amplified. This is an explicit instance of the bullwhip effect of Lee, Padmanabhan and Whang (1997). The paper then gives the distribution of the upstream inventory. That last distribution, equation (16), is the goal of this mission.

Setting

Time is indexed by periods t∈Zt\in\mathbb Zt∈Z; operation starts in period 111. Fix a mean level μ∈R\mu\in\mathbb Rμ∈R, a parameter α\alphaα with 0≤α≤10\le\alpha\le10≤α≤1, a downstream lead time L∈NL\in\mathbb NL∈N and an upstream lead time K∈NK\in\mathbb NK∈N. The shocks ε1,ε2,…\varepsilon_1,\varepsilon_2,\dotsε1​,ε2​,… are independent random variables, each normal with mean 000 and variance σ2\sigma^2σ2.

Downstream stage (§2). The demand dtd_tdt​ is the IMA(0,1,1) process

d1=μ+ε1,dt=dt−1−(1−α)εt−1+εt(t≥2).(1)d_1=\mu+\varepsilon_1,\qquad d_t=d_{t-1}-(1-\alpha)\varepsilon_{t-1}+\varepsilon_t\quad(t\ge2).\tag{1}d1​=μ+ε1​,dt​=dt−1​−(1−α)εt−1​+εt​(t≥2).(1)

The forecast Ft+1F_{t+1}Ft+1​, made after observing dtd_tdt​, is the exponentially weighted moving average

F1=μ,Ft+1=αdt+(1−α)Ft(t≥1).(3)F_1=\mu,\qquad F_{t+1}=\alpha d_t+(1-\alpha)F_t\quad(t\ge1).\tag{3}F1​=μ,Ft+1​=αdt​+(1−α)Ft​(t≥1).(3)

The order qtq_tqt​, placed in period ttt and delivered in period t+Lt+Lt+L, follows the adaptive base-stock policy

qt=dt+L(Ft+1−Ft)(t≥1),qt=μ(t≤0).(7)q_t=d_t+L(F_{t+1}-F_t)\quad(t\ge1),\qquad q_t=\mu\quad(t\le0).\tag{7}qt​=dt​+L(Ft+1​−Ft​)(t≥1),qt​=μ(t≤0).(7)

The inventory xtx_txt​ at the end of period ttt (negative values are backorders) obeys

xt=xt−1−dt+qt−L(t≥1),(6)x_t=x_{t-1}-d_t+q_{t-L}\quad(t\ge1),\tag{6}xt​=xt−1​−dt​+qt−L​(t≥1),(6)

where x0x_0x0​ is an initial inventory chosen by the planner. Orders may be negative.

Upstream stage (§3). It sees the orders qtq_tqt​ as its demand. It forecasts them with smoothing constant β=α/(1+Lα)\beta=\alpha/(1+L\alpha)β=α/(1+Lα),

G1=μ,Gt+1=βqt+(1−β)Gt(t≥1),(11)G_1=\mu,\qquad G_{t+1}=\beta q_t+(1-\beta)G_t\quad(t\ge1),\tag{11}G1​=μ,Gt+1​=βqt​+(1−β)Gt​(t≥1),(11)

orders pt=qt+K(Gt+1−Gt)p_t=q_t+K(G_{t+1}-G_t)pt​=qt​+K(Gt+1​−Gt​) for t≥1t\ge1t≥1 and pt=μp_t=\mupt​=μ for t≤0t\le0t≤0 (15), and holds inventory

yt=yt−1−qt+pt−K(t≥1),(14)y_t=y_{t-1}-q_t+p_{t-K}\quad(t\ge1),\tag{14}yt​=yt−1​−qt​+pt−K​(t≥1),(14)

with initial inventory y0y_0y0​.

In Lean, IsStage μ α L ε d F q x is the conjunction of (1), (3), (6), (7) and the boundary condition. IsUpstream μ β K q G p y is (11), (14), (15) and its boundary condition. upBeta α L is β\betaβ, and IsTwoStage is the conjunction of the two stages.

Formalization targets

Goal: the upstream inventory distribution (16)

For every period t≥Kt\ge Kt≥K (and t≥1t\ge1t≥1), the upstream inventory yty_tyt​ is normally distributed with

E[yt]=y0,Std⁡[yt]=σ∑i=0K−1(1+(L+i)α)2.\mathbb E[y_t]=y_0,\qquad \operatorname{Std}[y_t]=\sigma\sqrt{\sum_{i=0}^{K-1}\bigl(1+(L+i)\alpha\bigr)^2}.E[yt​]=y0​,Std[yt​]=σi=0∑K−1​(1+(L+i)α)2​.

Milestones, in the paper's order

  1. The closed form of demand (2): dt=εt+α∑j<tεj+μd_t=\varepsilon_t+\alpha\sum_{j<t}\varepsilon_j+\mudt​=εt​+α∑j<t​εj​+μ.
  2. The forecast error (4): dt−Ft=εtd_t-F_t=\varepsilon_tdt​−Ft​=εt​.
  3. The forecast update (5): Ft+1=Ft+αεt=α∑j≤tεj+μF_{t+1}=F_t+\alpha\varepsilon_t=\alpha\sum_{j\le t}\varepsilon_j+\muFt+1​=Ft​+αεt​=α∑j≤t​εj​+μ.
  4. The lead-time form of the inventory (proof of P1): xt=x0−∑j=t+1−Ltdj+LFt+1−Lx_t=x_0-\sum_{j=t+1-L}^{t}d_j+LF_{t+1-L}xt​=x0​−∑j=t+1−Lt​dj​+LFt+1−L​ for t≥Lt\ge Lt≥L.
  5. Property P1: xt=x0−∑i=0L−1εt−i(1+iα)x_t=x_0-\sum_{i=0}^{L-1}\varepsilon_{t-i}(1+i\alpha)xt​=x0​−∑i=0L−1​εt−i​(1+iα), with εt=0\varepsilon_t=0εt​=0 for t≤0t\le0t≤0.
  6. The downstream inventory distribution (8): xt∼N(x0, σ2∑i<L(1+iα)2)x_t\sim N\bigl(x_0,\ \sigma^2\sum_{i<L}(1+i\alpha)^2\bigr)xt​∼N(x0​, σ2∑i<L​(1+iα)2) for t≥Lt\ge Lt≥L, and ∑i<L(1+iα)2=L(1+α(L−1)+α2(L−1)(2L−1)/6)\sum_{i<L}(1+i\alpha)^2=L\bigl(1+\alpha(L-1)+\alpha^2(L-1)(2L-1)/6\bigr)∑i<L​(1+iα)2=L(1+α(L−1)+α2(L−1)(2L−1)/6).
  7. The orders in closed form (9): qt=(1+Lα)εt+α∑j<tεj+μq_t=(1+L\alpha)\varepsilon_t+\alpha\sum_{j<t}\varepsilon_j+\muqt​=(1+Lα)εt​+α∑j<t​εj​+μ.
  8. The orders are IMA(0,1,1) (10), with shocks ζt=(1+Lα)εt\zeta_t=(1+L\alpha)\varepsilon_tζt​=(1+Lα)εt​ and parameter β\betaβ, and 0≤β≤α0\le\beta\le\alpha0≤β≤α.
  9. The upstream forecast equals the downstream one: qt=Gt+ζtq_t=G_t+\zeta_tqt​=Gt​+ζt​, qt=Ft+(1+Lα)εtq_t=F_t+(1+L\alpha)\varepsilon_tqt​=Ft​+(1+Lα)εt​, Gt=FtG_t=F_tGt​=Ft​.
  10. Property P2: yt=y0−∑i=0K−1εt−i(1+(L+i)α)y_t=y_0-\sum_{i=0}^{K-1}\varepsilon_{t-i}\bigl(1+(L+i)\alpha\bigr)yt​=y0​−∑i=0K−1​εt−i​(1+(L+i)α), with εt=0\varepsilon_t=0εt​=0 for t≤0t\le0t≤0.

Two further statements of the paper are included as plain theorems: the order amplification Std⁡[qt∣Ft]=(1+Lα)σ=(1+Lα)Std⁡[dt∣Ft]\operatorname{Std}[q_t\mid F_t]=(1+L\alpha)\sigma=(1+L\alpha)\operatorname{Std}[d_t\mid F_t]Std[qt​∣Ft​]=(1+Lα)σ=(1+Lα)Std[dt​∣Ft​] (p. 55), stated as: qt−Ftq_t-F_tqt​−Ft​ and dt−Ftd_t-F_tdt​−Ft​ are independent of FtF_tFt​ with laws N(0,(1+Lα)2σ2)N(0,(1+L\alpha)^2\sigma^2)N(0,(1+Lα)2σ2) and N(0,σ2)N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2), and the critical-fractile rule (p. 54). Under that rule, setting x0=z Std⁡[xt]x_0=z\,\operatorname{Std}[x_t]x0​=zStd[xt​] gives P(xt≥0)=Φ(z)P(x_t\ge0)=\Phi(z)P(xt​≥0)=Φ(z).

Significance

Equation (8) is a closed-form safety-stock formula for nonstationary demand. For α>0\alpha>0α>0 the standard deviation of the inventory grows faster than L\sqrt LL​, so the textbook square-root law understates the safety stock. Equation (16) carries the formula one stage up a supply chain. With α>0\alpha>0α>0, the upstream safety stock depends on the downstream lead time LLL, not only on the upstream lead time KKK. The paper concludes that shortening the downstream lead time can matter more than shortening the upstream one. P1 and P2 underlie these conclusions: they write each inventory as a fixed linear combination of a bounded window of shocks.

All results here are proved in the paper. None of them, and none of the model's objects, is formalized on Prove2Me or, as far as is known, anywhere else. The mission produces machine-checked versions of the closed forms and distributions. It also produces a reusable statement that a finite linear combination of independent Gaussian shocks is Gaussian, which Mathlib has only for two summands.

Difficulty

The pathwise milestones are inductions on the period, but they are not uniform. The inventory recursion (6) reads orders LLL periods back, so P1 has two regimes: t≥Lt\ge Lt≥L, where every order read is a policy order, and 1≤t<L1\le t<L1≤t<L, where some are the boundary orders qs=μq_s=\muqs​=μ. The paper treats the second regime only by "direct substitution", and a single statement has to cover both.

P2 is not a second copy of P1. The upstream stage is defined by its own recursions (11), (14), (15). It becomes an instance of the single-stage model only after (10) and the forecast identity Gt=FtG_t=F_tGt​=Ft​ have been proved, and P1 must then be applied with parameter β\betaβ and shocks ζt\zeta_tζt​. The distributional statements (8) and (16) need the law of a finite weighted sum of independent normal variables. Mathlib provides the two-variable case; the finite-sum version, with a Z\mathbb ZZ-indexed window of shocks, has to be built from it.

Formalization scope

All sequences are functions Z→R\mathbb Z\to\mathbb RZ→R; lead times are natural numbers, cast to Z\mathbb ZZ in indices and to R\mathbb RR in coefficients, so no truncated subtraction occurs. The model is a predicate on sequences, and the objects d,F,q,x,G,p,yd,F,q,x,G,p,yd,F,q,x,G,p,y are constrained only by the paper's recursions (1), (3), (6), (7), (11), (14), (15) and the boundary conditions qt=pt=μq_t=p_t=\muqt​=pt​=μ for t≤0t\le0t≤0. None of the closed forms (2), (5), (9), (10), P1 or P2 is built into a definition. In particular the upstream stage is not defined as an instance of the downstream one, which would assume (10). The paper's convention εt=0\varepsilon_t=0εt​=0 for t≤0t\le0t≤0 is implemented by a masked sequence masked ε in P1 and P2, not by a hypothesis. The standing assumption 0≤α≤10\le\alpha\le10≤α≤1 is a hypothesis of every theorem.

In (8) and (16) the shocks live on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P). They are measurable and mutually independent over periods t≥1t\ge1t≥1 (iIndepFun over {s:Z∣1≤s}\{s:\mathbb Z\mid 1\le s\}{s:Z∣1≤s}), each with law gaussianReal 0 (σ²). The system equations hold for every outcome, and the initial inventory is a constant. "Normally distributed with mean mmm and standard deviation sss" is the law equality P.map (y t) = gaussianReal m (s²). A statement only about the variance would be weaker than the paper's claim and does not count. The critical-fractile theorem adds σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 and L≥1L\ge1L≥1; without them the inventory is constant and the claim fails.

Contributions are welcome on the finite Gaussian-sum lemma, which is independent of this paper, and on any milestone in any order.

Selected references

  • S. C. Graves, A single-item inventory model for a nonstationary demand process, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 1(1):50–61, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1.1.50
  • J. F. Muth, Optimal properties of exponentially weighted forecasts, Journal of the American Statistical Association 55(290):299–306, 1960. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1960.10482056
  • G. E. P. Box, G. M. Jenkins, G. C. Reinsel, Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd ed., Prentice Hall, 1994 (book; no DOI for this edition).
  • H. L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan, S. Whang, Information distortion in a supply chain: the bullwhip effect, Management Science 43(4):546–558, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.4.546
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Complexity TheoryTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

New Techniques for Noninteractive Zero-Knowledge 2: On a Perfectly Hiding Key the Circuit-SAT Proof from a Homomorphic Proof Commitment Is Perfect Zero-KnowledgeResearch Paper

Motivation

A non-interactive zero-knowledge (NIZK) proof lets a prover convince a verifier that a statement is true by sending a single message, computed from a common reference string σ\sigmaσ that both parties share, without revealing anything beyond the truth of the statement. NIZK proofs were introduced by Blum, Feldman and Micali (STOC 1988) and are a building block of chosen-ciphertext secure encryption, signatures and secure multi-party computation. For a long time every NIZK proof for all of NP was zero-knowledge only computationally: a simulator produced proofs that no efficient adversary could tell apart from real ones.

Groth, Ostrovsky and Sahai (J. ACM 59(3), 2012; conference versions at Eurocrypt 2006 and Crypto 2006) gave the first NIZK argument for all of NP whose zero-knowledge is perfect: real and simulated proofs have exactly the same distribution, so even an unbounded adversary learns nothing. The construction is the Circuit SAT proof of their Figure 3, run on a perfectly hiding key of a homomorphic proof commitment scheme. Its zero-knowledge is Lemma 8 of the paper, and it is the zero-knowledge half of their Theorem 11.

Setting

A homomorphic proof commitment scheme has a message space MMM (a finite cyclic group with generator 111, here Z/N\mathbb Z/NZ/N), a randomizer space RRR and a commitment space CCC, all finite abelian groups, and a commitment function comck(m;r)\mathrm{com}_{ck}(m; r)comck​(m;r). A hiding key generator KhidingK_{\mathrm{hiding}}Khiding​ outputs a commitment key ckckck together with a trapdoor tktktk. The scheme is assumed to have:

  1. the homomorphic property, com(m1+m2;r1+r2)=com(m1;r1) com(m2;r2)\mathrm{com}(m_1+m_2; r_1+r_2) = \mathrm{com}(m_1; r_1)\,\mathrm{com}(m_2; r_2)com(m1​+m2​;r1​+r2​)=com(m1​;r1​)com(m2​;r2​);
  2. perfect trapdoor opening: Topentk(m1,r1,m2)\mathrm{Topen}_{tk}(m_1, r_1, m_2)Topentk​(m1​,r1​,m2​) returns r2r_2r2​ with com(m2;r2)=com(m1;r1)\mathrm{com}(m_2; r_2) = \mathrm{com}(m_1; r_1)com(m2​;r2​)=com(m1​;r1​);
  3. perfect trapdoor opening indistinguishability: for uniform r1r_1r1​, the opening Topentk(m1,r1,m2)\mathrm{Topen}_{tk}(m_1, r_1, m_2)Topentk​(m1​,r1​,m2​) is distributed, jointly with ckckck, as a fresh uniform randomizer;
  4. perfect witness indistinguishability of a proof P01(ck,m,r;ρ)P_{01}(ck, m, r; \rho)P01​(ck,m,r;ρ) that a commitment contains 000 or 111: if com(0;r0)=com(1;r1)\mathrm{com}(0; r_0) = \mathrm{com}(1; r_1)com(0;r0​)=com(1;r1​), the proofs made from (0,r0)(0, r_0)(0,r0​) and from (1,r1)(1, r_1)(1,r1​) have the same law.

A NAND circuit on nnn wires is a list of gates (i,j,k)(i, j, k)(i,j,k) and an output wire out\mathrm{out}out; a witness w∈{0,1}nw \in \{0,1\}^nw∈{0,1}n satisfies it, C(w)=1C(w) = 1C(w)=1, if wk=¬(wi∧wj)w_k = \neg(w_i \wedge w_j)wk​=¬(wi​∧wj​) for every gate and wout=1w_{\mathrm{out}} = 1wout​=1. The prover P(σ,C,w)P(\sigma, C, w)P(σ,C,w) of Figure 3, with σ=ck\sigma = ckσ=ck, commits to every wire, ci=com(wi;ri)c_i = \mathrm{com}(w_i; r_i)ci​=com(wi​;ri​) with cout=com(1;0)c_{\mathrm{out}} = \mathrm{com}(1; 0)cout​=com(1;0), proves that each commitment contains 000 or 111, and for each gate proves that cicjck2 com(−2;0)c_i c_j c_k^2\,\mathrm{com}(-2; 0)ci​cj​ck2​com(−2;0) contains 000 or 111.

The simulator is S1=KhidingS_1 = K_{\mathrm{hiding}}S1​=Khiding​, returning σ=ck\sigma = ckσ=ck and τ=tk\tau = tkτ=tk, and S2(σ,τ,C)S_2(\sigma, \tau, C)S2​(σ,τ,C), which commits to 000 on every wire except the output wire, and makes all the 0/1 proofs from openings it knows or obtains with the trapdoor. In the zero-knowledge game an adaptive adversary AAA reads σ\sigmaσ, submits pairs (C,w)(C, w)(C,w) to an oracle one at a time, sees each answer before choosing the next, and outputs a bit. The real oracle answers with P(σ,C,w)P(\sigma, C, w)P(σ,C,w), the simulation oracle with S2(σ,τ,C)S_2(\sigma, \tau, C)S2​(σ,τ,C); both answer failure when C(w)≠1C(w) \neq 1C(w)=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 8, perfect zero-knowledge

For every adaptive adversary AAA,

Pr⁡[σ←Sσ:AP(σ,⋅,⋅)(σ)=1]=Pr⁡[(σ,τ)←S1:AS(σ,τ,⋅,⋅)(σ)=1],\Pr\big[\sigma \leftarrow S_\sigma : A^{P(\sigma,\cdot,\cdot)}(\sigma) = 1\big] = \Pr\big[(\sigma, \tau) \leftarrow S_1 : A^{S(\sigma,\tau,\cdot,\cdot)}(\sigma) = 1\big],Pr[σ←Sσ​:AP(σ,⋅,⋅)(σ)=1]=Pr[(σ,τ)←S1​:AS(σ,τ,⋅,⋅)(σ)=1],

where SσS_\sigmaSσ​ is KhidingK_{\mathrm{hiding}}Khiding​ restricted to its first output.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Gate witness (proof of Lemma 8, p. 15): with ci,cj,ckc_i, c_j, c_kci​,cj​,ck​ commitments to 000 and rk′=Topentk(0,rk,1)r'_k = \mathrm{Topen}_{tk}(0, r_k, 1)rk′​=Topentk​(0,rk​,1),
cicjck2 com(−2;0)=com(0;ri+rj+2rk′).c_i c_j c_k^2\,\mathrm{com}(-2; 0) = \mathrm{com}(0; r_i + r_j + 2r'_k).ci​cj​ck2​com(−2;0)=com(0;ri​+rj​+2rk′​).
  1. Trapdoor-opened wires: com(wi;Topentk(0,ri,wi))=com(0;ri)\mathrm{com}(w_i; \mathrm{Topen}_{tk}(0, r_i, w_i)) = \mathrm{com}(0; r_i)com(wi​;Topentk​(0,ri​,wi​))=com(0;ri​), and the simulated commitments (com(0;ri))i(\mathrm{com}(0; r_i))_i(com(0;ri​))i​ have the law of the honest commitments (com(wi;ri))i(\mathrm{com}(w_i; r_i))_i(com(wi​;ri​))i​.
  2. Witness indistinguishability for two 0/1 openings: 0/1 proofs made from any two openings (m,r)(m, r)(m,r), (m′,r′)(m', r')(m′,r′) of the same commitment, m,m′∈{0,1}m, m' \in \{0,1\}m,m′∈{0,1}, have the same law.
  3. One query: for every hiding key and every (C,w)(C, w)(C,w) with C(w)=1C(w) = 1C(w)=1, P(ck,C,w)=dS2(ck,tk,C)P(ck, C, w) \overset{d}{=} S_2(ck, tk, C)P(ck,C,w)=dS2​(ck,tk,C).

Significance

Lemma 8 makes the Circuit SAT argument of Section 7 the first perfect NIZK argument for every language in NP. Combined with the computational indistinguishability of binding and hiding keys it also gives the computational zero-knowledge of the proof of Figure 3 (Theorem 6), and it is the template for the perfect zero-knowledge of the universally composable NIZK of the paper's Section 8. The same simulation pattern, commit to 000 everywhere and use the trapdoor where an opening is needed, recurs in later pairing-based proof systems such as Groth–Sahai proofs.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A formal proof fixes the simulator completely, including the cases the paper leaves to the reader, and makes the adaptive multi-query argument explicit: the paper's proof treats one proof at a time and does not spell out why answering many adaptively chosen queries preserves equality of distributions.

Difficulty

The real and simulated proofs never use the same randomizers, so the proof cannot compare outputs value by value; it must compare laws. Two gaps in the printed argument need to be closed. First, witness indistinguishability is assumed only for one opening to 000 against one opening to 111, while comparing a simulated gate proof with a real one compares two openings that may carry the same message; the trapdoor supplies the missing intermediate opening. Second, the printed gate recipe gives the gate commitment the message 000 only when no input of the gate is the output wire; when the output wire is an input, the message is 111 or 222, and 222 has no 0/1 opening, so the simulator must open the gate commitment itself with the trapdoor. The adaptive adversary adds a third point: equality of laws must survive an arbitrary interaction in which later queries depend on earlier answers.

Formalization scope

  • The message space is ZMod N with N≥4N \ge 4N≥4 (the paper describes Figure 3 for order at least 4, p. 14); RRR and RproofR_{\mathrm{proof}}Rproof​ are finite nonempty types, CCC a commutative group. Key generators and the 0/1 prover's randomness are probability mass functions; the coins are uniform.
  • Probability-one properties are stated for every key in the support of KhidingK_{\mathrm{hiding}}Khiding​; equalities of probabilities for all adversaries are stated as equalities of laws. Trapdoor opening indistinguishability is the joint law with ckckck, since the adversary does not see tktktk.
  • The adversary is a well-founded tree of fair coin tosses and adaptive oracle queries that reads σ\sigmaσ. Quantifying over all such trees is stronger than quantifying over polynomial-time adversaries. No running-time bound is imposed on the simulator.
  • The simulator is the specific S2S_2S2​ defined in the mission, a function of ckckck, tktktk, the circuit and fresh coins. A "simulator" that runs the honest prover on the witness would make the statement trivial and is ruled out by this definition. Each gate commitment is opened to 000 with Topentk\mathrm{Topen}_{tk}Topentk​, which covers the output-wire case.
  • Out of scope: key indistinguishability and every computational statement (computational soundness of Theorem 11, adaptive culpable soundness, the UC results); the second sentence of Lemma 8 (perfect non-erasure zero-knowledge); the verifier of Figure 3, which zero-knowledge does not involve.
  • Reusable beyond this mission: the query-tree adversary with its output law, and the abstract homomorphic proof commitment with its perfect properties. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and a general lemma that oracles with equal laws give equal output laws to every adaptive adversary.

Selected references

  • J. Groth, R. Ostrovsky, A. Sahai, New Techniques for Noninteractive Zero-Knowledge, Journal of the ACM 59(3), Article 11, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1145/2220357.2220358
  • J. Groth, R. Ostrovsky, A. Sahai, Perfect Non-interactive Zero Knowledge for NP, EUROCRYPT 2006, LNCS 4004. https://doi.org/10.1007/11761679_21
  • J. Groth, R. Ostrovsky, A. Sahai, Non-interactive Zaps and New Techniques for NIZK, CRYPTO 2006, LNCS 4117. https://doi.org/10.1007/11818175_6
  • M. Blum, P. Feldman, S. Micali, Non-Interactive Zero-Knowledge and Its Applications, STOC 1988. https://doi.org/10.1145/62212.62222
  • U. Feige, D. Lapidot, A. Shamir, Multiple NonInteractive Zero Knowledge Proofs Under General Assumptions, SIAM J. Comput. 29(1), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539792230010
  • J. Groth, A. Sahai, Efficient Non-interactive Proof Systems for Bilinear Groups, EUROCRYPT 2008, LNCS 4965. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78967-3_24
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Graph TheoryLinear algebraTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Spectral Sparsification of Graphs 1: Sampling Each Edge of a High-Conductance Graph with Probability min(1, Υ/min(dᵢ, dⱼ)) Gives a (1+ε)-Spectral Approximation with Few EdgesResearch Paper

Motivation

A spectral sparsifier of a graph is a much sparser weighted graph whose Laplacian quadratic form is within a factor σ\sigmaσ of the original on every vector. Spielman and Teng introduced the notion in Spectral Sparsification of Graphs as a strengthening of the cut sparsifiers of Benczúr and Karger: a spectral sparsifier preserves every cut, and in addition every quantity determined by the Laplacian quadratic form, such as effective resistances, eigenvalues and the behaviour of random walks. Sparsifiers are the reason linear systems in graph Laplacians can be solved in nearly linear time: one preconditions with a sparsifier and solves the sparse system instead (Spielman–Teng, arXiv:cs/0607105).

The construction in the paper has two halves: decompose the graph into pieces of high conductance, then sparsify each piece by random sampling. This mission is the second half, Theorem 6.1 of §6: in a graph whose normalized Laplacian has a spectral gap, keeping each edge independently with probability inversely proportional to the smaller degree of its endpoints, and reweighting kept edges by the inverse probability, produces a (1+ϵ)(1+\epsilon)(1+ϵ)-spectral approximation with few edges, with high probability.

Timeline. Benczúr and Karger (1996) sampled edges with probabilities depending on edge strength and preserved cuts. Achlioptas and McSherry (2001) analysed random sampling of matrices through the random-matrix norm bound of Füredi and Komlós (1981), corrected by Vu (2007). Spielman and Teng (arXiv 2008, SIAM J. Comput. 2011) proved Theorem 6.1 by refining the Füredi–Komlós trace method for downsampling graphs that may already be sparse. Spielman and Srivastava (2008) later replaced conductance-based probabilities by effective resistances.

Setting

Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be an unweighted graph on a finite vertex set VVV, n=∣V∣n=|V|n=∣V∣, with degrees did_idi​, adjacency matrix AAA, diagonal degree matrix DDD and Laplacian LG=D−AL_G=D-ALG​=D−A. Its quadratic form is

xTLGx=∑{u,v}∈E(x(u)−x(v))2,x∈RV.x^TL_Gx=\sum_{\{u,v\}\in E}(x(u)-x(v))^2,\qquad x\in\mathbb R^V .xTLG​x={u,v}∈E∑​(x(u)−x(v))2,x∈RV.

A weighted graph G~\widetilde GG on VVV with weights w(u,v)≥0w(u,v)\ge0w(u,v)≥0 has the form xTLG~x=∑{u,v}w(u,v)(x(u)−x(v))2x^TL_{\widetilde G}x=\sum_{\{u,v\}}w(u,v)(x(u)-x(v))^2xTLG​x=∑{u,v}​w(u,v)(x(u)−x(v))2. G~\widetilde GG is a σ\sigmaσ-approximation of GGG if for all xxx

1σ xTLG~x≤xTLGx≤σ xTLG~x.\tfrac1\sigma\,x^TL_{\widetilde G}x\le x^TL_Gx\le\sigma\,x^TL_{\widetilde G}x .σ1​xTLG​x≤xTLG​x≤σxTLG​x.

When every degree is positive, the normalized Laplacian is LG=D−1/2LGD−1/2\mathcal L_G=D^{-1/2}L_GD^{-1/2}LG​=D−1/2LG​D−1/2; its eigenvalues lie in [0,2][0,2][0,2], and a lower bound λ\lambdaλ on its smallest non-zero eigenvalue measures how well connected each component of GGG is (by Cheeger's inequality it is equivalent to high conductance up to squaring).

Sampling. For a parameter Υ>1\Upsilon>1Υ>1, edge (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) is assigned

pi,j=min⁡(1,Υmin⁡(di,dj)),p_{i,j}=\min\Big(1,\frac{\Upsilon}{\min(d_i,d_j)}\Big),pi,j​=min(1,min(di​,dj​)Υ​),

each edge is kept independently with probability pi,jp_{i,j}pi,j​, and a kept edge gets weight 1/pi,j1/p_{i,j}1/pi,j​. The sampled adjacency matrix A~\widetilde AA then has E[A~]=A\mathbf E[\widetilde A]=AE[A]=A; D~\widetilde DD is the diagonal matrix of weighted degrees of the sampled graph.

The procedure. In Theorem 6.1 sampling is applied only to the edges FFF of an induced subgraph G(S)G(S)G(S), S⊆VS\subseteq VS⊆V; the other edges H=E−FH=E-FH=E−F are kept with weight 1. Sample((S,F),ϵ,p,λ)\mathtt{Sample}((S,F),\epsilon,p,\lambda)Sample((S,F),ϵ,p,λ) sets Υ=(12k/(ϵλ))2\Upsilon=(12k/(\epsilon\lambda))^2Υ=(12k/(ϵλ))2 and uses the degrees did_idi​ of G(S)G(S)G(S); the paper takes k=max⁡(log⁡2(3/p),log⁡2∣S∣)k=\max(\log_2(3/p),\log_2|S|)k=max(log2​(3/p),log2​∣S∣).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1 (p. 8)

For ϵ,p∈(0,1/2)\epsilon,p\in(0,1/2)ϵ,p∈(0,1/2), GGG without isolated vertices whose smallest non-zero normalized Laplacian eigenvalue is at least λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, S⊆VS\subseteq VS⊆V, and an even integer k≥max⁡(log⁡2(3/p),log⁡2∣S∣)k\ge\max(\log_2(3/p),\log_2|S|)k≥max(log2​(3/p),log2​∣S∣): with probability at least 1−p1-p1−p, simultaneously

(S.1)  G~=(V,F~∪H) is a (1+ϵ)-approximation of G,(S.2)  ∣F~∣≤288 k2(ϵλ)2 ∣S∣.\text{(S.1)}\ \ \widetilde G=(V,\widetilde F\cup H)\ \text{is a }(1+\epsilon)\text{-approximation of }G,\qquad \text{(S.2)}\ \ |\widetilde F|\le\frac{288\,k^2}{(\epsilon\lambda)^2}\,|S| .(S.1)  G=(V,F∪H) is a (1+ϵ)-approximation of G,(S.2)  ∣F∣≤(ϵλ)2288k2​∣S∣.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • Lemma 6.2 (p. 8): if λ2(D−1/2LD−1/2)≥λ\lambda_2(D^{-1/2}LD^{-1/2})\ge\lambdaλ2​(D−1/2LD−1/2)≥λ and ∥D−1/2(L−L~)D−1/2∥≤ϵ<λ\|D^{-1/2}(L-\widetilde L)D^{-1/2}\|\le\epsilon<\lambda∥D−1/2(L−L)D−1/2∥≤ϵ<λ, then G~\widetilde GG is a λ/(λ−ϵ)\lambda/(\lambda-\epsilon)λ/(λ−ϵ)-approximation of a connected GGG.
  • Claim 6.5 (p. 13): ∣Δi,j∣≤1/Υ|\Delta_{i,j}|\le1/\Upsilon∣Δi,j​∣≤1/Υ for Δ=D−1(A~−A)\Delta=D^{-1}(\widetilde A-A)Δ=D−1(A−A), on every outcome of positive probability.
  • Lemma 6.6 (p. 13): E[Δr,tkΔt,rl]≤Υ−(k+l−1)dr−1\mathbf E[\Delta_{r,t}^k\Delta_{t,r}^l]\le\Upsilon^{-(k+l-1)}d_r^{-1}E[Δr,tk​Δt,rl​]≤Υ−(k+l−1)dr−1​ for every edge, k≥1k\ge1k≥1, l≥0l\ge0l≥0.
  • Lemma 6.4 (p. 10): E[Tr⁡(Δk)]≤nkk/Υk/2\mathbf E[\operatorname{Tr}(\Delta^k)]\le nk^k/\Upsilon^{k/2}E[Tr(Δk)]≤nkk/Υk/2 for even kkk.
  • Lemma 6.3 (p. 9): Pr⁡[∥D−1/2(A~−A)D−1/2∥≥2kn1/k/Υ]≤2−k\Pr[\|D^{-1/2}(\widetilde A-A)D^{-1/2}\|\ge 2kn^{1/k}/\sqrt\Upsilon]\le2^{-k}Pr[∥D−1/2(A−A)D−1/2∥≥2kn1/k/Υ​]≤2−k for even k>0k>0k>0.
  • Theorem 6.8 (p. 15, Chernoff bound, cited from Raghavan 1988).
  • Lemma 6.7 (p. 14): Pr⁡[∥D−1/2(D−D~)D−1/2∥≥ϵ]≤2ne−Υϵ2/3\Pr[\|D^{-1/2}(D-\widetilde D)D^{-1/2}\|\ge\epsilon]\le2ne^{-\Upsilon\epsilon^2/3}Pr[∥D−1/2(D−D)D−1/2∥≥ϵ]≤2ne−Υϵ2/3 for 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1.

Significance

Theorem 6.1 is the sampling engine of the first nearly-linear-time spectral sparsification algorithm: combined with a decomposition of an arbitrary graph into high-conductance pieces (§7–§10 of the paper), it yields sparsifiers with O(nlog⁡cn/ϵ2)O(n\log^c n/\epsilon^2)O(nlogcn/ϵ2) edges, which in turn give the nearly-linear-time Laplacian solvers that underlie fast algorithms for electrical flows, maximum flow approximation and graph partitioning. Lemma 6.3 is a self-contained random-matrix result: a norm bound for the normalized deviation of a downsampled graph that does not assume the original graph is dense.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of it is formalized in Lean or Mathlib: Mathlib has the graph Laplacian (SimpleGraph.lapMatrix) and the spectral theorem for Hermitian matrices, but no normalized Laplacian, no spectral approximation and no trace-method bounds for random matrices. A complete formalization would be the first machine-checked proof of a spectral sparsification theorem, and the milestones (the trace-method moment bound, Chernoff for weighted two-point sums) are reusable on their own.

Difficulty

The obvious argument — bound each entry of A~−A\widetilde A-AA−A and apply a matrix concentration inequality — needs either a matrix Chernoff bound (not in the paper, and not in Mathlib) or the Füredi–Komlós trace method, which assumes every edge can appear and so fails when the graph is already sparse: a vertex of small degree has no room for its entries to average out. The paper's sampling probabilities keep every edge at a vertex of degree at most Υ\UpsilonΥ, and the trace computation has to exploit exactly this through the moment bound of Lemma 6.6 and a combinatorial count of closed walks. Formally, the obstacles are the walk-counting argument of Lemma 6.4, the passage from a trace bound to an eigenvalue bound for the non-symmetric Δ\DeltaΔ (similar to a symmetric matrix), and Lemma 6.2's restriction to the orthogonal complement of the kernel, which must handle disconnected GGG in the goal.

Formalization scope

  • Vertex sets are finite types V; graphs are SimpleGraph V with decidable adjacency; weighted graphs are weight functions V → V → ℝ (symmetric, nonnegative, loopless). The quadratic form is 12∑u,vw(u,v)(x(u)−x(v))2\frac12\sum_{u,v}w(u,v)(x(u)-x(v))^221​∑u,v​w(u,v)(x(u)−x(v))2; a σ\sigmaσ-approximation keeps both inequalities of (2).
  • The probability space is explicit: an outcome is the set TTT of kept edges, with probability ∏e∈Tpe∏e∉T(1−pe)\prod_{e\in T}p_e\prod_{e\notin T}(1-p_e)∏e∈T​pe​∏e∈/T​(1−pe​); probabilities and expectations are finite sums. The goal is a probability bound over this law, not the existence of a good set of edges, which would be a much weaker statement.
  • Eigenvalue conditions are stated with real eigenpairs: "smallest non-zero eigenvalue ≥λ\ge\lambda≥λ" means every eigenvalue μ≠0\mu\ne0μ=0 satisfies μ≥λ\mu\ge\lambdaμ≥λ; "∥M∥≤t\|M\|\le t∥M∥≤t" ("≥t\ge t≥t") for symmetric MMM means every (some) eigenvalue has absolute value ≤t\le t≤t (≥t\ge t≥t).
  • Hypotheses made explicit (the paper leaves them implicit): in Theorem 6.1, kkk is an even integer with k≥log⁡2(3/p)k\ge\log_2(3/p)k≥log2​(3/p), k≥log⁡2∣S∣k\ge\log_2|S|k≥log2​∣S∣ (the proof applies Lemma 6.3 with Sample's kkk, which the paper defines as a real maximum; the printed statement is the case where that maximum is an even integer), every vertex has degree ≥1\ge1≥1, and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0; in Lemma 6.2, 0≤ϵ<λ0\le\epsilon<\lambda0≤ϵ<λ; in Lemma 6.7, 0<ϵ<10<\epsilon<10<ϵ<1 (without it the printed bound is false for large ϵ\epsilonϵ); in Lemmas 6.3–6.7 and Claim 6.5, positive degrees; in Lemma 6.3, k>0k>0k>0; in Theorem 6.8, β>0\beta>0β>0, ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0, pi∈[0,1]p_i\in[0,1]pi​∈[0,1]. GGG is not assumed connected in Theorem 6.1.
  • In Theorem 6.1 the probabilities use the degrees of G(S)G(S)G(S) (the input of Sample\mathtt{Sample}Sample), while λ\lambdaλ refers to GGG; nnn in Sample\mathtt{Sample}Sample is ∣S∣|S|∣S∣.
  • Trivializing readings ruled out: a one-sided "approximation", a goal that chooses the kept edges existentially, and a spectral hypothesis with λ≤0\lambda\le0λ≤0 or without positive degrees are all excluded by the statements.
  • Out of scope: running times, the decomposition algorithms of §7–§10, Cheeger's inequality (Theorem 4.1, cited and not used here), the weighted generalization remarked on p. 10, and the use of Theorem 6.1 in Lemma 9.1.
  • Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone; a Loewner-order formulation equivalence; a general matrix Chernoff or trace-method library from which Lemma 6.3 follows.

Selected references

  • D. A. Spielman, S.-H. Teng, Spectral Sparsification of Graphs, arXiv:0808.4134v3, 2010; SIAM J. Comput. 40(4), 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/0808.4134
  • A. A. Benczúr, D. R. Karger, Approximating s-t minimum cuts in Õ(n²) time, STOC 1996. https://doi.org/10.1145/237814.237827
  • D. Achlioptas, F. McSherry, Fast computation of low rank matrix approximations, STOC 2001. https://doi.org/10.1145/380752.380858
  • Z. Füredi, J. Komlós, The eigenvalues of random symmetric matrices, Combinatorica 1(3), 1981. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579329
  • V. H. Vu, Spectral norm of random matrices, Combinatorica 27(6), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00493-007-2190-z
  • P. Raghavan, Probabilistic construction of deterministic algorithms: approximating packing integer programs, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 37(2), 1988. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0000(88)90003-7
  • D. A. Spielman, N. Srivastava, Graph sparsification by effective resistances, STOC 2008; arXiv:0803.0929. https://arxiv.org/abs/0803.0929
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Note on Probability Distributions with Increasing Generalized Failure Rates II: For IGFR X with Support (α, ∞) and g(ξ) → κ, E[Xⁿ] Is Finite iff κ > nResearch Paper

Motivation

Many models in operations management and economics need the demand or valuation distribution to be regular in some way, so that an optimal price, order quantity or contract is unique. Pricing a service to one customer whose valuation XXX has survival function Φˉ\bar\PhiΦˉ is a typical example. The seller maximizes p Φˉ(p)p\,\bar\Phi(p)pΦˉ(p). The first-order condition is Φˉ(p)(1−g(p))=0\bar\Phi(p)(1-g(p))=0Φˉ(p)(1−g(p))=0, where g(ξ)=ξh(ξ)g(\xi)=\xi h(\xi)g(ξ)=ξh(ξ) is the generalized failure rate and hhh is the ordinary failure rate. When ggg is increasing (the IGFR property, introduced by Lariviere and Porteus 2001), the optimal price is unique and solves g(p∗)=1g(p^*)=1g(p∗)=1.

The best-known regularity class is the class of IFR laws, those with increasing failure rate. Every IFR law has finite moments of all orders (Barlow and Proschan 1965). IGFR laws are a larger class that includes heavy-tailed laws, and Lariviere (2006) identifies exactly which of their moments are finite. The answer is given by one number, the limit of the generalized failure rate. A consequence used in pricing models is that a valuation law with a finite mean has g>1g>1g>1 eventually, so the pricing problem has a finite solution.

Setting

Let XXX be a nonnegative random variable with distribution function Φ(ξ)=P(X≤ξ)\Phi(\xi)=\mathbb P(X\le\xi)Φ(ξ)=P(X≤ξ) and survival function Φˉ(ξ)=1−Φ(ξ)\bar\Phi(\xi)=1-\Phi(\xi)Φˉ(ξ)=1−Φ(ξ). Assume Φ\PhiΦ has a density ϕ\phiϕ. The failure rate is

h(ξ)=ϕ(ξ)Φˉ(ξ),h(\xi)=\frac{\phi(\xi)}{\bar\Phi(\xi)},h(ξ)=Φˉ(ξ)ϕ(ξ)​,

and the generalized failure rate is g(ξ)=ξh(ξ)g(\xi)=\xi h(\xi)g(ξ)=ξh(ξ). XXX is IGFR if ggg is weakly increasing on {ξ:Φ(ξ)<1}\{\xi:\Phi(\xi)<1\}{ξ:Φ(ξ)<1}. XXX has support (α,∞)(\alpha,\infty)(α,∞), with α≥0\alpha\ge 0α≥0, if Φ(ξ)=0\Phi(\xi)=0Φ(ξ)=0 exactly for ξ≤α\xi\le\alphaξ≤α and Φ(ξ)<1\Phi(\xi)<1Φ(ξ)<1 for every ξ\xiξ. For a real n>0n>0n>0, the nnn-th moment is E[Xn]=∫xn dΦ(x)∈[0,∞]\mathbb E[X^n]=\int x^n\,d\Phi(x)\in[0,\infty]E[Xn]=∫xndΦ(x)∈[0,∞].

The comparison law is the Pareto law with scale S>0S>0S>0 and parameter k>0k>0k>0, which has density ϕ(ξ)=kSkξ−k−1\phi(\xi)=kS^k\xi^{-k-1}ϕ(ξ)=kSkξ−k−1 for ξ≥S\xi\ge Sξ≥S. Its generalized failure rate is identically kkk on [S,∞)[S,\infty)[S,∞), and its nnn-th moment is finite exactly when k>nk>nk>n. For a level yyy with Φˉ(y)>0\bar\Phi(y)>0Φˉ(y)>0, write XyX_yXy​ for XXX conditional on X>yX>yX>y. A random variable AAA is stochastically smaller than BBB if P(A>x)≤P(B>x)\mathbb P(A>x)\le\mathbb P(B>x)P(A>x)≤P(B>x) for all real xxx.

In Lean, XXX is its law μ : Measure ℝ, Φ\PhiΦ is cdf μ, Φˉ\bar\PhiΦˉ is survival μ, hhh is failureRate μ φ, ggg is genFailureRate μ φ, and E[Xn]\mathbb E[X^n]E[Xn] is nthMoment μ n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 603)

Suppose XXX is IGFR with support (α,∞)(\alpha,\infty)(α,∞) and lim⁡ξ→∞g(ξ)=κ\lim_{\xi\to\infty}g(\xi)=\kappalimξ→∞​g(ξ)=κ, where κ∈[0,∞]\kappa\in[0,\infty]κ∈[0,∞] may be infinite. Then for every real n>0n>0n>0,

E[Xn]<∞  ⟺  κ>n.\mathbb E[X^n]<\infty\iff\kappa>n .E[Xn]<∞⟺κ>n.

The statement fixes no constants. It covers κ=∞\kappa=\inftyκ=∞ (all moments finite) and the boundary case n=κn=\kappan=κ (infinite moment).

Milestones

The two Pareto facts of the §3 preamble come first:

gPareto(S,k)(ξ)=k  (ξ≥S),E[Xkn]<∞  ⟺  k>n.g_{\mathrm{Pareto}(S,k)}(\xi)=k\ \ (\xi\ge S),\qquad \mathbb E[X_k^n]<\infty\iff k>n .gPareto(S,k)​(ξ)=k  (ξ≥S),E[Xkn​]<∞⟺k>n.

Six claims from the proof follow:

  1. E[Xn]<∞\mathbb E[X^n]<\inftyE[Xn]<∞ iff the part of the integral over {X>y}\{X>y\}{X>y} is finite.
  2. hy=hh_y=hhy​=h on (y,∞)(y,\infty)(y,∞).
  3. Φˉ(ξ)=exp⁡[−∫0ξh]\bar\Phi(\xi)=\exp[-\int_0^\xi h]Φˉ(ξ)=exp[−∫0ξ​h].
  4. If h(ξ)>c/ξh(\xi)>c/\xih(ξ)>c/ξ beyond yyy, then XyX_yXy​ is stochastically smaller than Pareto(y,c)\mathrm{Pareto}(y,c)Pareto(y,c).
  5. The usual stochastic order between nonnegative variables orders their nnn-th moments.
  6. If h(ξ)≤c/ξh(\xi)\le c/\xih(ξ)≤c/ξ beyond zzz, then Pareto(z,c)\mathrm{Pareto}(z,c)Pareto(z,c) is stochastically smaller than XzX_zXz​.

Two consequences stated after the theorem are included as further targets. First, an IGFR law with support (α,∞)(\alpha,\infty)(α,∞) and a finite mean has g>1g>1g>1 beyond some finite point. Second, a strictly IGFR law with a finite (n+1)(n+1)(n+1)-st moment satisfies the two conditions of Van Mieghem and Dada (1999): h(ξ)−(n+1)/ξh(\xi)-(n+1)/\xih(ξ)−(n+1)/ξ has at most one zero, and lim⁡ξ↓0ξh(ξ)<n+1\lim_{\xi\downarrow0}\xi h(\xi)<n+1limξ↓0​ξh(ξ)<n+1.

Significance

The theorem gives a complete moment criterion for IGFR laws in terms of the single number κ\kappaκ. Among IGFR laws, finiteness of the mean, the variance or any higher moment can therefore be read off the tail of ggg. One consequence is that a finite mean is enough for the IGFR pricing problem to have a finite solution, which replaces the separate condition "ggg exceeds one at a finite point". The theorem generalizes Lemma 2 of Lariviere and Porteus (2001), and the paper uses it to connect IGFR laws to the Van Mieghem–Dada condition.

The result is proved on paper but has not been formalized. Formalizing it adds three things:

  • a machine-checked proof of the boundary case n=κn=\kappan=κ, which the printed argument (with 0<ε<n−κ0<\varepsilon<n-\kappa0<ε<n−κ) does not treat;
  • the Pareto moment and hazard identities, which Mathlib's Pareto.lean lacks;
  • a reusable link between failure-rate bounds and the usual stochastic order, through the representation Φˉ=exp⁡(−∫h)\bar\Phi=\exp(-\int h)Φˉ=exp(−∫h).

Difficulty

The core of the proof is a comparison: a pointwise bound h(ξ)≷c/ξh(\xi)\gtrless c/\xih(ξ)≷c/ξ beyond a level becomes a stochastic order against a Pareto tail. This needs the representation Φˉ(ξ)=exp⁡[−∫0ξh]\bar\Phi(\xi)=\exp[-\int_0^\xi h]Φˉ(ξ)=exp[−∫0ξ​h], which uses the fundamental theorem of calculus for log⁡Φˉ\log\bar\PhilogΦˉ across the left end of the support, where Φ\PhiΦ may have a kink. It also needs to be stated for the conditional law, whose density is a rescaled restriction.

An obvious first attempt is to bound E[Xn]\mathbb E[X^n]E[Xn] directly by ∫xnϕ(x) dx\int x^n\phi(x)\,dx∫xnϕ(x)dx with the given bound on ggg. That bound controls ϕ/Φˉ\phi/\bar\Phiϕ/Φˉ, not ϕ\phiϕ, so it says nothing directly. The survival representation is what converts it.

A second obstacle is the boundary case n=κn=\kappan=κ, with κ\kappaκ finite. A strict margin ε\varepsilonε is no longer available there. It needs the non-strict bound g≤κg\le\kappag≤κ, which follows from monotonicity, and a Pareto law with parameter exactly κ\kappaκ.

Formalization scope

  • Laws, not random variables. Every statement is about distributions, so XXX is represented by a probability measure μ on ℝ with μ (Set.Iio 0) = 0. In the goal, nonnegativity also follows from the support hypothesis, and the separate hypothesis is kept for uniformity with the other items.

  • The density version is pinned. hhh and ggg read ϕ\phiϕ pointwise, while "Φ has density φ" determines ϕ\phiϕ only up to a null set. The predicate IsRegDensity requires ϕ≥0\phi\ge0ϕ≥0 and μ=ϕ⋅Lebesgue\mu=\phi\cdot\text{Lebesgue}μ=ϕ⋅Lebesgue. It also requires ϕ(ξ)\phi(\xi)ϕ(ξ) to be the right derivative of Φ\PhiΦ at every point ξ\xiξ of {0<Φ<1}\{0<\Phi<1\}{0<Φ<1} and ϕ=0\phi=0ϕ=0 wherever Φ=0\Phi=0Φ=0. The exponential law with ϕ(0)=0\phi(0)=0ϕ(0)=0 satisfies all hypotheses of the goal, with κ=∞\kappa=\inftyκ=∞.

  • IGFR is weak monotonicity of ggg on {Φ<1}\{\Phi<1\}{Φ<1}, as printed. On this set Φˉ>0\bar\Phi>0Φˉ>0, so Lean's convention x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 never enters.

  • κ\kappaκ is an extended nonnegative real. The limit hypothesis is Tendsto (fun ξ => ENNReal.ofReal (g ξ)) atTop (𝓝 κ) with κ : ℝ≥0∞. A real-valued κ\kappaκ would silently drop the case κ=∞\kappa=\inftyκ=∞.

  • Moments are lower Lebesgue integrals ∫⁻ x, ENNReal.ofReal (x ^ n) ∂μ with a real exponent. The Bochner integral would make "finite" automatic, because it returns 000 for a non-integrable function, so it is not used.

  • Conditioning and Pareto. XyX_yXy​ is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cond μ (Set.Ioi y), always with Φˉ(y)>0\bar\Phi(y)>0Φˉ(y)>0. The Pareto law is Mathlib's paretoMeasure S k. "Stochastically smaller" is the published definition StochasticOrders.Usual.UsualOrder applied with the identity map.

  • Trivialization is ruled out. The goal is a full equivalence with a possibly infinite κ\kappaκ and an infinite-valued moment. It is not the weaker "κ>n\kappa>nκ>n implies finite", and the hypotheses are jointly satisfiable.

  • Recorded deviations. The printed bound "E[Xn∣X≤y]<yn+1\mathbb E[X^n\mid X\le y]<y^{n+1}E[Xn∣X≤y]<yn+1" is a slip (it fails for y<1y<1y<1). Only the finiteness it is used for is formalized. The Pareto moment fact is stated as an equivalence, which contains the printed "only if".

  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs:

    • the Pareto moment integral;
    • the FTC argument for log⁡Φˉ\log\bar\PhilogΦˉ;
    • the layer-cake formula for moments under the usual order;
    • basic facts about cond and cdf.

    The survival representation and the failure-rate/Pareto comparisons are reusable for any heavy-tail result stated through hazard rates. Contributions are welcome at every level, including partial results such as the Pareto lemmas alone.

Selected references

  • M. A. Lariviere, A note on probability distributions with increasing generalized failure rates, Operations Research 54(3):602–604, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1060.0282
  • M. A. Lariviere and E. L. Porteus, Selling to a newsvendor: an analysis of price-only contracts, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 3(4):293–305, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.3.4.293.9971
  • R. E. Barlow and F. Proschan, Mathematical Theory of Reliability, Wiley, 1965 (SIAM Classics reprint 1996). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971194
  • J. A. Van Mieghem and M. Dada, Price versus production postponement: capacity and competition, Management Science 45(12):1631–1649, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.12.1631
  • S. M. Ross, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, 1983.
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