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AnalysisMathematical Physics·Captain: mikedeng1

Conformal Weldings of Random Surfaces: SLE and the Quantum Gravity Zipper 2: For κ < 4, Reverse SLE_κ Zipping Welds Boundary Arcs of Equal Quantum Length, ν_h[z₋,0] = ν_h[0,z₊]Research Paper

Why conformal welding by quantum length

Liouville quantum gravity (LQG) equips a planar domain with a random area measure μh\mu_hμh​ and a random boundary length measure νh\nu_hνh​. Both are built from an instance hhh of the Gaussian free field (GFF). The Schramm–Loewner evolution SLEκ\mathrm{SLE}_\kappaSLEκ​ is the conformally invariant random curve that describes interfaces in critical planar models. Sheffield's paper (arXiv:1012.4797, Ann. Probab. 44 (2016)) shows that the two are linked by a conformal welding. Zipping up a free boundary GFF by a reverse Loewner flow glues two boundary arcs of equal quantum length, and the glued seam is an SLEκ\mathrm{SLE}_\kappaSLEκ​ curve.

This "quantum zipper" is the starting point of the mating-of-trees programme (Duplantier–Miller–Sheffield, arXiv:1409.7055). It is also the mechanism behind the conjectured, and partly proved, scaling limits of random planar maps decorated by statistical-physics models.

Timeline:

  • 2005 — reverse Loewner flows are studied by Rohde and Schramm (RS05). They show that for κ<4\kappa<4κ<4 the SLE trace is simple and its complement is a Hölder domain.
  • 2000 — Jones and Smirnov show that boundaries of Hölder domains are conformally removable (JS00).
  • 2011 — Duplantier and Sheffield construct μh\mu_hμh​ and νh\nu_hνh​ as almost sure limits along dyadic scales and prove the KPZ relation (DS11a).
  • 2010–2016 — this paper (arXiv v1 2010, v2 2015, journal 2016) proves the welding theorem (Theorem 1.3) and the quantum-length zipper (Theorem 1.8).

Setting

H={z:Im⁡z>0}\mathbb H=\{z:\operatorname{Im}z>0\}H={z:Imz>0}, and the free boundary Green's function is G(y,z)=−log⁡∣y−z∣−log⁡∣y−zˉ∣G(y,z)=-\log|y-z|-\log|y-\bar z|G(y,z)=−log∣y−z∣−log∣y−zˉ∣. Fix κ∈(0,4)\kappa\in(0,4)κ∈(0,4) and put γ=κ\gamma=\sqrt\kappaγ=κ​ and Q=2/γ+γ/2Q=2/\gamma+\gamma/2Q=2/γ+γ/2.

  • Reverse Loewner flow. For a standard Brownian motion BBB, ft=gt−κBtf_t=g_t-\sqrt\kappa B_tft​=gt​−κ​Bt​, where ∂tgt(z)=−2/(gt(z)−κBt)\partial_tg_t(z)=-2/(g_t(z)-\sqrt\kappa B_t)∂t​gt​(z)=−2/(gt​(z)−κ​Bt​) and g0(z)=zg_0(z)=zg0​(z)=z. Then fTf_TfT​ maps H\mathbb HH onto H∖ηT\mathbb H\setminus\eta_TH∖ηT​, and ηT\eta_TηT​ is a simple curve.
  • The coupled field. Let ht(z)=2κlog⁡∣ft(z)∣+Qlog⁡∣ft′(z)∣\mathfrak h_t(z)=\frac2{\sqrt\kappa}\log|f_t(z)|+Q\log|f_t'(z)|ht​(z)=κ​2​log∣ft​(z)∣+Qlog∣ft′​(z)∣. With h~\tilde hh~ a free boundary GFF independent of BBB,
h=hT+h~∘fT,h=\mathfrak h_T+\tilde h\circ f_T ,h=hT​+h~∘fT​,

which by Theorem 1.2 has the law of 2κlog⁡∣⋅∣+h~\frac2{\sqrt\kappa}\log|\cdot|+\tilde hκ​2​log∣⋅∣+h~ modulo additive constants.

  • Quantum length. hε(x)h_\varepsilon(x)hε​(x) is the mean of hhh on the upper semicircle of radius ε\varepsilonε around x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R. Then
νh=lim⁡n→∞εnγ2/4eγhεn(x)/2 dx,εn=2−n,\nu_h=\lim_{n\to\infty}\varepsilon_n^{\gamma^2/4}e^{\gamma h_{\varepsilon_n}(x)/2}\,dx,\qquad \varepsilon_n=2^{-n},νh​=n→∞lim​εnγ2/4​eγhεn​​(x)/2dx,εn​=2−n,

as a vague limit. The area measure μh\mu_hμh​ is the analogous limit with circle averages and exponent γ2/2\gamma^2/2γ2/2.

  • Quantum wedges. An α\alphaα-quantum wedge is the doubly marked surface (H,h)(\mathbb H,h)(H,h) with h=h†+Q(−log⁡∣⋅∣)+A−log⁡∣⋅∣h=h^\dagger+Q(-\log|\cdot|)+A_{-\log|\cdot|}h=h†+Q(−log∣⋅∣)+A−log∣⋅∣​ (1.10). Here h†h^\daggerh† is the lateral part of the GFF and AAA is a two-sided drifted Brownian motion. A surface is identified with its canonical description, normalized by μh(B1(0))=1\mu_h(B_1(0))=1μh​(B1​(0))=1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.3

Almost surely, for every zzz on ηT\eta_TηT​ and the two real points z−<0<z+z_-<0<z_+z−​<0<z+​ that fTf_TfT​ maps to zzz,

νh([z−,0])=νh([0,z+]).\nu_h\big([z_-,0]\big)=\nu_h\big([0,z_+]\big).νh​([z−​,0])=νh​([0,z+​]).

The statement is scale free: it does not depend on the additive constant of hhh.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 4.5. Reverse SLEκ,ρ\mathrm{SLE}_{\kappa,\rho}SLEκ,ρ​ zipping preserves the law of h^0+h~\hat{\mathfrak h}_0+\tilde hh^​0​+h~, with h^t=ht+12κ∫Gt(y,⋅)ρ(dy)\hat{\mathfrak h}_t=\mathfrak h_t+\frac1{2\sqrt\kappa}\int G_t(y,\cdot)\rho(dy)h^​t​=ht​+2κ​1​∫Gt​(y,⋅)ρ(dy).
  2. Proposition 5.4. Under e(h0,ρ)Γe^{(h^0,\rho)}\Gammae(h0,ρ)Γ, the zipper is the modified SLE of Theorem 4.5.
  3. Proposition 1.6. Zooming in at a νh\nu_hνh​-typical boundary point gives a γ\gammaγ-quantum wedge.
  4. Proposition 1.7. The γ\gammaγ-wedge is stationary under shifting the origin by a fixed quantum length.
  5. Lemma 5.6. Sampling xxx from νh[−δ,0]\nu_h[-\delta,0]νh​[−δ,0] under Γ\GammaΓ turns the zipper into SLEκ,ρ\mathrm{SLE}_{\kappa,\rho}SLEκ,ρ​ with ρ=γ2δx−γ2σ0,1\rho=\gamma^2\delta_x-\gamma^2\sigma_{0,1}ρ=γ2δx​−γ2σ0,1​.
  6. Theorem 1.8, length clause. On a (γ−2/γ)(\gamma-2/\gamma)(γ−2/γ)-quantum wedge with an independent SLEγ2\mathrm{SLE}_{\gamma^2}SLEγ2​, the quantum lengths of the two sides of the curve agree.

Significance

Theorem 1.3 says that reverse SLE zipping is a welding by quantum length. Combined with the removability of SLEκ\mathrm{SLE}_\kappaSLEκ​ for κ<4\kappa<4κ<4, it gives Theorem 1.4: the field hhh determines the curve ηT\eta_TηT​. The same equality of boundary lengths on the two sides of an SLE is the defining property of the quantum-zipper and mating-of-trees constructions, which build random surfaces by welding wedges together.

All results here are proved in the paper, and none has a machine-checked proof. The proofs are partly sketches: Proposition 5.5 ends with a limiting estimate, and the zero–one step of Theorem 1.8 is delegated to [DMS14a, Lemma 8.2]. A formal development would therefore check the most cited welding argument in random conformal geometry. The definitions it needs (arc averages of a GFF, νh\nu_hνh​, quantum wedges, conditionally Gaussian fields) are reusable for any LQG statement.

Difficulty

The obvious argument tries to compare the left and right boundary measures directly, ball by ball along the curve. It fails because the two measures depend on the field near the curve in the same way (5.1): nothing local distinguishes them, and nothing local forces them to agree. The paper instead builds a stationary picture (Lemma 5.6, Proposition 5.5, Figure 1.7). It shows that the curve splits a (γ−2/γ)(\gamma-2/\gamma)(γ−2/γ)-wedge into two independent γ\gammaγ-wedges, and it uses the ergodic theorem with scale invariance to force the ratio of the two lengths to be a constant ccc, which symmetry makes equal to 111. The last step transfers the result from the wedge to the field of Theorem 1.3 by absolute continuity. Every step uses Gaussian conditioning on random conformal images of the field, which current libraries lack.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and Brownian motion is Mathlib's IsBrownianReal. Flows are pathwise ODE solutions, with no stochastic integrals.
  • A field is a random map Ψ(ω,μ)=(h,μ)\Psi(\omega,\mu)=(h,\mu)Ψ(ω,μ)=(h,μ) on admissible measures: finite, bounded support in H\mathbb HH, finite logarithmic energy. Its law is given in characteristic-function form, as "conditionally Gaussian given G\mathcal GG with mean mmm and covariance CCC". The arc averages hε(z)=(h,σz,ε)h_\varepsilon(z)=(h,\sigma_{z,\varepsilon})hε​(z)=(h,σz,ε​) are continuous in (z,ε)(z,\varepsilon)(z,ε).
  • Additive constants are fixed by h1(0)=0h_1(0)=0h1​(0)=0 (semicircle of radius 111), the paper's normalization (5.9).
  • νh\nu_hνh​ and μh\mu_hμh​ are predicates: the a.s. vague limits along 2−n2^{-n}2−n with locally integrable densities. The measure ν≡0\nu\equiv0ν≡0 cannot satisfy them vacuously, and the sanity file proves that adding CCC to the field multiplies ν\nuν by eγC/2e^{\gamma C/2}eγC/2.
  • The points z±z_\pmz±​ are encoded by radial boundary limits of fTf_TfT​. "Agree in law" means equality of the laws of all pairings, and convergence of random surfaces means convergence of the finite-dimensional laws of ∫f dμcan\int f\,d\mu^{\mathrm{can}}∫fdμcan.
  • Γ\GammaΓ is encoded by its restriction to (h0,(ft)t≥0)(h^0,(f_t)_{t\ge0})(h0,(ft​)t≥0​). The forward SLE of Theorem 1.8 is the platform definition OAI.SLEExactGauge.IsOrdinaryChordalSLE.

Disclosed readings of the text:

  • "α<0\alpha<0α<0" in (1.10) is read as α<Q\alpha<Qα<Q.
  • The force set C\mathcal CC of Theorem 4.5 lies in H‾\overline{\mathbb H}H.
  • Proposition 5.4 uses the measure 2κ ρ2\sqrt\kappa\,\rho2κ​ρ in (4.4)–(4.6).
  • The "unit circle" of Lemma 5.6 is the upper unit semicircle.
  • γ=0\gamma=0γ=0 is excluded in Proposition 1.6.

Contributions are welcome on any of the following:

  • existence of the predicates (νh\nu_hνh​, wedges, Γ\GammaΓ);
  • Gaussian conditioning on conformal images;
  • the Itô computations behind Theorem 4.5;
  • the milestones themselves.

Selected references

  • S. Sheffield, Conformal weldings of random surfaces: SLE and the quantum gravity zipper, Ann. Probab. 44(5), 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1012.4797 (v2), https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOP1055
  • B. Duplantier, S. Sheffield, Liouville quantum gravity and KPZ, Invent. Math. 185, 2011. https://arxiv.org/abs/0808.1560
  • S. Rohde, O. Schramm, Basic properties of SLE, Ann. of Math. 161, 2005. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0106036
  • P. Jones, S. Smirnov, Removability theorems for Sobolev functions and quasiconformal maps, Ark. Mat. 38, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02384490
  • B. Duplantier, J. Miller, S. Sheffield, Liouville quantum gravity as a mating of trees, Astérisque 427, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.7055
  • S. Sheffield, Gaussian free fields for mathematicians, Probab. Theory Related Fields 139, 2007. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0312099
16 thms2 active usersReviewed
Control TheoryStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear-Quadratic Optimal Control Problems for Mean-Field Stochastic Differential Equations: Two Riccati Equations Give the Optimal State-Feedback Control and the Value ⟨Π(0)x, x⟩Research Paper

Motivation

Linear-quadratic (LQ) control is the setting in which stochastic optimal control has a closed-form answer: the optimal control is a linear feedback of the state, and the feedback gain comes from a Riccati differential equation. In the mean-field version, the expectation E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] of the state and E[u]\mathbb E[u]E[u] of the control appear in the dynamics and in the cost. Mean-field SDEs go back to Kac (1956) and McKean (1966) as models of interacting particle systems. A cost containing E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] can penalize the variance var⁡(X)=E∣X∣2−∣E[X]∣2\operatorname{var}(X)=\mathbb E|X|^2-|\mathbb E[X]|^2var(X)=E∣X∣2−∣E[X]∣2 of the state, which is what is wanted when the optimal state should not be too sensitive to the noise (mean–variance portfolio selection is the standard example). With such a cost the problem is no longer a classical LQ problem: the weights on E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] may be negative definite, and the cost is not an expectation of a function of the state path, so the classical Riccati theory does not apply as it stands.

J. Yong (SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4), 2013, pp. 2809–2838) solved the problem with deterministic coefficients. He derives the optimality system, a linear mean-field forward–backward SDE, and decouples it with two Riccati equations. One governs the deviation X−E[X]X-\mathbb E[X]X−E[X], the other the mean E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X]. The optimal control is then an explicit state feedback.

Timeline:

  • 1956, 1966: Kac and McKean introduce the McKean–Vlasov (mean-field) SDE.
  • 1968–1998: the classical stochastic LQ problem and its Riccati equation (Wonham 1968; Chen, Li and Zhou 1998; Yong–Zhou 1999, the paper's reference [38]).
  • 2009–2011: maximum principles for mean-field SDE control (Buckdahn–Djehiche–Li; Andersson–Djehiche; Meyer-Brandis–Øksendal–Zhou).
  • 2013: Yong, the mean-field LQ problem solved by two Riccati equations (this mission).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P) be a complete probability space carrying a one-dimensional standard Brownian motion WWW, and let F\mathbb FF be the natural filtration of WWW augmented by the P\mathbb PP-null sets. Fix a horizon T>0T>0T>0. An admissible control is an F\mathbb FF-progressively measurable u:[0,T]×Ω→Rmu:[0,T]\times\Omega\to\mathbb R^mu:[0,T]×Ω→Rm with E∫0T∣u∣2ds<∞\mathbb E\int_0^T|u|^2ds<\inftyE∫0T​∣u∣2ds<∞; the set of them is U[0,T]\mathcal U[0,T]U[0,T]. For x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn the state solves

dX=(AX+Aˉ E[X]+Bu+Bˉ E[u])ds+(CX+Cˉ E[X]+Du+Dˉ E[u])dW,X(0)=x,dX=\big(AX+\bar A\,\mathbb E[X]+Bu+\bar B\,\mathbb E[u]\big)ds+\big(CX+\bar C\,\mathbb E[X]+Du+\bar D\,\mathbb E[u]\big)dW,\qquad X(0)=x,dX=(AX+AˉE[X]+Bu+BˉE[u])ds+(CX+CˉE[X]+Du+DˉE[u])dW,X(0)=x,

with deterministic matrix-valued coefficients. The cost is

J(x;u)=E{∫0T[⟨QX,X⟩+⟨Qˉ E[X],E[X]⟩+⟨Ru,u⟩+⟨Rˉ E[u],E[u]⟩]ds+⟨GX(T),X(T)⟩+⟨Gˉ E[X(T)],E[X(T)]⟩}.J(x;u)=\mathbb E\Big\{\int_0^T\big[\langle QX,X\rangle+\langle\bar Q\,\mathbb E[X],\mathbb E[X]\rangle+\langle Ru,u\rangle+\langle\bar R\,\mathbb E[u],\mathbb E[u]\rangle\big]ds+\langle GX(T),X(T)\rangle+\langle\bar G\,\mathbb E[X(T)],\mathbb E[X(T)]\rangle\Big\}.J(x;u)=E{∫0T​[⟨QX,X⟩+⟨Qˉ​E[X],E[X]⟩+⟨Ru,u⟩+⟨RˉE[u],E[u]⟩]ds+⟨GX(T),X(T)⟩+⟨GˉE[X(T)],E[X(T)]⟩}.

Problem (MF-LQ): minimize J(x;⋅)J(x;\cdot)J(x;⋅) over U[0,T]\mathcal U[0,T]U[0,T]. The assumptions are:

  • (H1): the eight coefficients are in L∞(0,T)L^\infty(0,T)L∞(0,T).
  • (H2): the weights are bounded and symmetric, and for some δ>0\delta>0δ>0, Q, Q+Qˉ≥0Q,\ Q+\bar Q\ge0Q, Q+Qˉ​≥0, R, R+Rˉ≥δIR,\ R+\bar R\ge\delta IR, R+Rˉ≥δI and G, G+Gˉ≥0G,\ G+\bar G\ge0G, G+Gˉ≥0.

The weights Qˉ,Rˉ,Gˉ\bar Q,\bar R,\bar GQˉ​,Rˉ,Gˉ themselves need not be semidefinite.

With Σ0=R+DTPD\Sigma_0=R+D^TPDΣ0​=R+DTPD and Σ1=R+Rˉ+(D+Dˉ)TP(D+Dˉ)\Sigma_1=R+\bar R+(D+\bar D)^TP(D+\bar D)Σ1​=R+Rˉ+(D+Dˉ)TP(D+Dˉ), the two Riccati equations are

P˙+PA+ATP+CTPC+Q−(PB+CTPD)Σ0−1(BTP+DTPC)=0,P(T)=G,(4.8)\dot P+PA+A^TP+C^TPC+Q-(PB+C^TPD)\Sigma_0^{-1}(B^TP+D^TPC)=0,\qquad P(T)=G,\tag{4.8}P˙+PA+ATP+CTPC+Q−(PB+CTPD)Σ0−1​(BTP+DTPC)=0,P(T)=G,(4.8) Π˙+Π(A+Aˉ)+(A+Aˉ)TΠ+(C+Cˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)+Q+Qˉ−[Π(B+Bˉ)+(C+Cˉ)TP(D+Dˉ)]Σ1−1[(B+Bˉ)TΠ+(D+Dˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)]=0,(4.9)\dot\Pi+\Pi(A+\bar A)+(A+\bar A)^T\Pi+(C+\bar C)^TP(C+\bar C)+Q+\bar Q-\big[\Pi(B+\bar B)+(C+\bar C)^TP(D+\bar D)\big]\Sigma_1^{-1}\big[(B+\bar B)^T\Pi+(D+\bar D)^TP(C+\bar C)\big]=0,\tag{4.9}Π˙+Π(A+Aˉ)+(A+Aˉ)TΠ+(C+Cˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)+Q+Qˉ​−[Π(B+Bˉ)+(C+Cˉ)TP(D+Dˉ)]Σ1−1​[(B+Bˉ)TΠ+(D+Dˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)]=0,(4.9)

with Π(T)=G+Gˉ\Pi(T)=G+\bar GΠ(T)=G+Gˉ. Write K0=Σ0−1(BTP+DTPC)K_0=\Sigma_0^{-1}(B^TP+D^TPC)K0​=Σ0−1​(BTP+DTPC) and K1=Σ1−1[(B+Bˉ)TΠ+(D+Dˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)]K_1=\Sigma_1^{-1}[(B+\bar B)^T\Pi+(D+\bar D)^TP(C+\bar C)]K1​=Σ1−1​[(B+Bˉ)TΠ+(D+Dˉ)TP(C+Cˉ)].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 2827)

Under (H1)–(H2), (4.8) and (4.9) have unique solutions PPP and Π\PiΠ on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. The closed-loop system obtained by substituting

u∗=−K0(X∗−E[X∗])−K1 E[X∗]u^*=-K_0\big(X^*-\mathbb E[X^*]\big)-K_1\,\mathbb E[X^*]u∗=−K0​(X∗−E[X∗])−K1​E[X∗]

into the state equation has a unique solution X∗X^*X∗. With Y=P(X∗−E[X∗])+Π E[X∗]Y=P(X^*-\mathbb E[X^*])+\Pi\,\mathbb E[X^*]Y=P(X∗−E[X∗])+ΠE[X∗] and the explicit ZZZ, the 4-tuple (X∗,u∗,Y,Z)(X^*,u^*,Y,Z)(X∗,u∗,Y,Z) solves the optimality system, and (X∗,u∗)(X^*,u^*)(X∗,u∗) is optimal. Moreover

inf⁡u∈U[0,T]J(x;u)=⟨Π(0)x,x⟩∀x∈Rn.(4.10)\inf_{u\in\mathcal U[0,T]}J(x;u)=\langle\Pi(0)x,x\rangle\qquad\forall x\in\mathbb R^n.\tag{4.10}u∈U[0,T]inf​J(x;u)=⟨Π(0)x,x⟩∀x∈Rn.(4.10)

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.6: the state equation is well posed in X^[0,T]\widehat{\mathcal X}[0,T]X[0,T].
  2. Proposition 2.8: J(0;u)≥δ E∫0T∣u∣2dsJ(0;u)\ge\delta\,\mathbb E\int_0^T|u|^2dsJ(0;u)≥δE∫0T​∣u∣2ds, and (MF-LQ) has a unique optimal control.
  3. Theorem 3.1: the necessary condition, i.e. the MF-BSDE (3.1) and the stationarity condition (3.2).
  4. Theorem 3.2: the sufficient condition.
  5. Corollary 3.3: unique solvability of the MF-FBSDE (3.3).
  6. §4, p. 2825: (4.8) has a unique solution P≥0P\ge0P≥0.
  7. §4, p. 2825: the matrix identity P−PD~Σ1−1D~TP=P1/2(I+P1/2D~R~−1D~TP1/2)−1P1/2≥0P-P\widetilde D\Sigma_1^{-1}\widetilde D^TP=P^{1/2}(I+P^{1/2}\widetilde D\widetilde R^{-1}\widetilde D^TP^{1/2})^{-1}P^{1/2}\ge0P−PDΣ1−1​DTP=P1/2(I+P1/2DR−1DTP1/2)−1P1/2≥0.
  8. §4, p. 2826: (4.9) has a unique solution Π≥0\Pi\ge0Π≥0.
  9. Proof of Theorem 4.1, p. 2828: the completion-of-squares identity J(x;u)−⟨Π(0)x,x⟩=E∫0T(⟨Σ0w0,w0⟩+⟨Σ1w1,w1⟩)dsJ(x;u)-\langle\Pi(0)x,x\rangle=\mathbb E\int_0^T(\langle\Sigma_0w_0,w_0\rangle+\langle\Sigma_1w_1,w_1\rangle)dsJ(x;u)−⟨Π(0)x,x⟩=E∫0T​(⟨Σ0​w0​,w0​⟩+⟨Σ1​w1​,w1​⟩)ds.

The Woodbury identity used on p. 2826 is already proved on the platform (FamousTheorems.woodbury_identity) and is referenced.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.1 reduces a mean-field stochastic control problem, whose state law enters the dynamics, to two matrix ODEs. The optimal control is computable offline: integrate PPP and Π\PiΠ backward, then feed back the state and its mean. The value ⟨Π(0)x,x⟩\langle\Pi(0)x,x\rangle⟨Π(0)x,x⟩ is explicit, so cost comparisons between the mean-field problem and its classical counterpart become comparisons between Riccati solutions; §5 of the paper does exactly this for variance-penalized costs. When all barred coefficients vanish, Π=P\Pi=PΠ=P and the classical stochastic LQ feedback is recovered.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, not open; this mission formalizes the known proof. No continuous-time stochastic LQ theorem exists on the platform. The mission builds on the published stochastic calculus of Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic (Itô integrals, SDE and BSDE solutions, LF2L^2_{\mathbb F}LF2​) and adds a reusable mean-field LQ setting, matrix Riccati equations in integral form, and a verification theorem. None of the statements has a machine-checked proof yet.

Difficulty

The Riccati equations are nonlinear matrix ODEs with only L∞L^\inftyL∞ coefficients. Local existence is routine, but global existence on [0,T][0,T][0,T] needs an a priori bound, which a local fixed-point argument does not give. The bound comes from the control interpretation of the equation, and it requires semidefiniteness of PPP. The second equation contains PPP, and its quadratic term is only controlled when Σ1≥δI\Sigma_1\ge\delta IΣ1​≥δI, which in turn needs P≥0P\ge0P≥0. Its "state weight" is semidefinite only through the identity of milestone 7, even though Qˉ\bar QQˉ​ itself may be negative definite. On the stochastic side, the verification step (milestone 9) and the duality arguments of Theorems 3.1–3.2 apply Itô's product rule to ⟨P(X−EX),X−EX⟩\langle P(X-\mathbb E X),X-\mathbb E X\rangle⟨P(X−EX),X−EX⟩ and to ⟨X,Y⟩\langle X,Y\rangle⟨X,Y⟩ for processes driven by the same Brownian motion, with an absolutely continuous (not differentiable) PPP. Itô's formula is not yet available on the platform: it is the open goal EthierKurtz.ito_formula. Existence in Proposition 2.8 needs a minimizer of a coercive continuous quadratic functional on the Hilbert space LF2(0,T;Rm)L^2_{\mathbb F}(0,T;\mathbb R^m)LF2​(0,T;Rm).

Formalization scope

States are Fin n → ℝ, controls Fin m → ℝ, time is ℝ≥0, and the horizon satisfies T>0T>0T>0. The probability space is complete. WWW is Peng1990.SMP.IsStdBrownian with one coordinate, and F\mathbb FF is ReflectedBSDE.Existence.augmentedFiltration. E[X(s)]\mathbb E[X(s)]E[X(s)] is the Bochner integral of the solution itself. Every mean-field term is a closure over the process being solved for, never a free deterministic input. Solutions of the forward and backward equations are the published SolvesSDE/SolvesBSDE notions: progressive, square-integrable, with the integral identity at each t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T] almost surely. Controls and ZZZ-components are identified up to ds⊗dPds\otimes d\mathbb Pds⊗dP-null sets.

Other conventions:

  • L∞L^\inftyL∞ coefficients are measurable functions with an entrywise bound on [0,T][0,T][0,T].
  • (H2) is transcribed literally, with nothing assumed on Qˉ,Rˉ,Gˉ\bar Q,\bar R,\bar GQˉ​,Rˉ,Gˉ alone.
  • Riccati equations are stated in integral form P(t)=G+∫tTF(s,P(s))dsP(t)=G+\int_t^TF(s,P(s))dsP(t)=G+∫tT​F(s,P(s))ds with an integrable right-hand side, since solutions are only absolutely continuous.
  • The class of (4.8) is the regular class Σ0≥εI\Sigma_0\ge\varepsilon IΣ0​≥εI, so that Matrix.inv is a true inverse. For (4.9), Σ1≥δI\Sigma_1\ge\delta IΣ1​≥δI follows from (H2) once P≥0P\ge0P≥0.
  • The value (4.10) is stated as a lower bound for every admissible control together with equality at u∗u^*u∗, not as an infimum of a set of reals.
  • The page's "positive definite" for PPP and Π\PiΠ is false in general (G=Q=0G=Q=0G=Q=0 gives P≡0P\equiv0P≡0); the milestones assert positive semidefiniteness.

A formalization in which the mean E[X]\mathbb E[X]E[X] is an independent input, or in which a Riccati "solution" may use the junk value 000 of a singular inverse, would trivialize the problem. Both are ruled out by the definitions above. A sorry-free sanity file shows that (H1)–(H2) hold for data with Qˉ=−12I\bar Q=-\tfrac12IQˉ​=−21​I negative definite, and that the Riccati class is non-empty.

Contributions are welcome on all of the following:

  • the Itô product rule for the published Itô processes;
  • the existence of continuous versions;
  • Gronwall-type uniqueness for linear mean-field SDEs and BSDEs;
  • Carathéodory theory for matrix Riccati equations with measurable coefficients;
  • the PSD matrix identity, which uses only Mathlib linear algebra.

Selected references

  • J. Yong, Linear-quadratic optimal control problems for mean-field stochastic differential equations, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(4) (2013) 2809–2838. https://doi.org/10.1137/120892477
  • J. Yong and X. Y. Zhou, Stochastic Controls: Hamiltonian Systems and HJB Equations, Springer, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1466-3
  • S. Chen, X. Li and X. Y. Zhou, Stochastic linear quadratic regulators with indefinite control weight costs, SIAM J. Control Optim. 36(5) (1998) 1685–1702. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0363012996310478
  • R. Buckdahn, B. Djehiche and J. Li, A general stochastic maximum principle for SDEs of mean-field type, Appl. Math. Optim. 64 (2011) 197–216. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00245-011-9136-y
  • H. P. McKean, A class of Markov processes associated with nonlinear parabolic equations, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 56 (1966) 1907–1911. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.56.6.1907
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CombinatoricsGraph Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for #BIS-Hard Problems on Expander Graphs 4: On Almost Every Δ-Regular Bipartite Graph with Δ ≥ Cq² log² q, Proper q-Colorings Reduce to Kotecký–Preiss Polymer ModelsResearch Paper

Motivation

Counting the proper qqq-colorings of a graph, and sampling one uniformly at random, are basic problems of approximate counting with a long history in statistical physics, where proper colorings are the zero-temperature antiferromagnetic Potts model. On bipartite graphs these problems are tied to #BIS, the problem of approximately counting independent sets in a bipartite graph, whose complexity is unresolved. Galanis, Štefankovič, Vigoda and Yang showed that approximately counting proper qqq-colorings is #BIS-hard on bipartite graphs of maximum degree Δ\DeltaΔ whenever q≤Δ/(2log⁡Δ)q \le \Delta/(2\log\Delta)q≤Δ/(2logΔ) (SIAM J. Comput. 45(6), 2016). A positive result in that regime therefore has to use structure beyond bipartiteness and bounded degree.

Jenssen, Keevash and Perkins (SIAM J. Comput. 49(4) 2020) use expansion. Their Theorem 5 says that for Δ≥Cq2log⁡2q\Delta \ge Cq^2\log^2 qΔ≥Cq2log2q there is an FPTAS and a polynomial-time sampler for proper qqq-colorings on almost every Δ\DeltaΔ-regular bipartite graph. This answered Conjecture 1 of the authors' SODA 2019 extended abstract. Liao, Lin, Lu and Mao (APPROX/RANDOM 2019) independently proved a similar result under a slightly stronger condition on Δ\DeltaΔ. The organizing idea, that most colorings of a strongly expanding bipartite graph follow one of a few patterns, comes from the work of Peled and Spinka on rigidity of colorings of Zd\mathbb Z^dZd (arXiv:1808.03597).

This mission is the fourth of a series formalizing the four main results of that paper; it covers Theorem 5.

Setting

Fix integers q≥3q \ge 3q≥3, Δ≥3\Delta \ge 3Δ≥3 and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. The vertex set is V=O⊔EV = \mathcal O \sqcup \mathcal EV=O⊔E, two sides of mmm vertices each (so n=2mn = 2mn=2m). Gbip(2m,Δ)\mathcal G^{\mathrm{bip}}(2m,\Delta)Gbip(2m,Δ) is the finite set of labelled simple graphs on VVV whose edges all join O\mathcal OO to E\mathcal EE and in which every vertex has degree Δ\DeltaΔ. A property holds for almost every Δ\DeltaΔ-regular bipartite graph if the fraction of graphs in Gbip(2m,Δ)\mathcal G^{\mathrm{bip}}(2m,\Delta)Gbip(2m,Δ) having it tends to 111 as m→∞m \to \inftym→∞.

For S⊆VS \subseteq VS⊆V the vertex boundary ∂S\partial S∂S is the set of vertices outside SSS with a neighbour in SSS, and S+=S∪∂SS^+ = S \cup \partial SS+=S∪∂S. The graph is a bipartite (σ,ρ)(\sigma,\rho)(σ,ρ)-expander if ∣∂S∣≥ρ∣S∣|\partial S| \ge \rho|S|∣∂S∣≥ρ∣S∣ for every SSS inside one side with ∣S∣≤σm|S| \le \sigma m∣S∣≤σm.

A proper qqq-coloring is a map f:V→[q]f : V \to [q]f:V→[q] with f(u)≠f(v)f(u) \ne f(v)f(u)=f(v) on every edge; Xq(G)\mathcal X_q(G)Xq​(G) is their set and ZG(q)=∣Xq(G)∣Z_G(q) = |\mathcal X_q(G)|ZG​(q)=∣Xq​(G)∣. A pattern is a pair (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) of disjoint sets with A∪B=[q]A \cup B = [q]A∪B=[q]; there are 2q2^q2q of them. A coloring agrees with (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) at vvv if v∈Ov \in \mathcal Ov∈O and f(v)∈Af(v) \in Af(v)∈A, or v∈Ev \in \mathcal Ev∈E and f(v)∈Bf(v) \in Bf(v)∈B. For S⊆VS \subseteq VS⊆V, χA,B(S)\chi_{A,B}(S)χA,B​(S) is the set of proper colorings that disagree with (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) at every vertex of SSS and agree everywhere else.

G3G^3G3 joins two vertices at GGG-distance at most 333. A set is little if ∣S∣≤4qlog⁡ΔΔm|S| \le 4q\frac{\log\Delta}{\Delta}m∣S∣≤4qΔlogΔ​m. A polymer is a little set that is connected in G3G^3G3; C(G)\mathcal C(G)C(G) is the set of polymers, and two polymers are compatible if their GGG-distance exceeds 333. For a pattern (A,B)(A,B)(A,B), the weight and the polymer partition function are

wA,B(γ)=∣χA,B(γ)∣∣A∣m∣B∣m,ΞA,B(G)=∑Γ∏γ∈ΓwA,B(γ),w_{A,B}(\gamma) = \frac{|\chi_{A,B}(\gamma)|}{|A|^m|B|^m}, \qquad \Xi_{A,B}(G) = \sum_{\Gamma} \prod_{\gamma\in\Gamma} w_{A,B}(\gamma),wA,B​(γ)=∣A∣m∣B∣m∣χA,B​(γ)∣​,ΞA,B​(G)=Γ∑​γ∈Γ∏​wA,B​(γ),

the sum over all families Γ⊆C(G)\Gamma \subseteq \mathcal C(G)Γ⊆C(G) of pairwise compatible polymers, the empty family included. Finally Z^\hat ZZ^ is an ε\varepsilonε-relative approximation to ZZZ if e−εZ^≤Z≤eεZ^e^{-\varepsilon}\hat Z \le Z \le e^{\varepsilon}\hat Ze−εZ^≤Z≤eεZ^.

Formalization targets

Goal: the deterministic core of Theorem 5

There is an absolute constant C>0C > 0C>0 such that for all q≥3q \ge 3q≥3 and Δ≥Cq2log⁡2q\Delta \ge Cq^2\log^2 qΔ≥Cq2log2q, almost every Δ\DeltaΔ-regular bipartite graph GGG satisfies

e−εZ~G(q)≤ZG(q)≤eεZ~G(q),Z~G(q)=∑(A,B)∣A∣m∣B∣m ΞA,B(G),ε=e−m/(4q),e^{-\varepsilon}\tilde Z_G(q) \le Z_G(q) \le e^{\varepsilon}\tilde Z_G(q), \qquad \tilde Z_G(q) = \sum_{(A,B)} |A|^m|B|^m\,\Xi_{A,B}(G), \quad \varepsilon = e^{-m/(4q)},e−εZ~G​(q)≤ZG​(q)≤eεZ~G​(q),Z~G​(q)=(A,B)∑​∣A∣m∣B∣mΞA,B​(G),ε=e−m/(4q),

and, for every pattern (A,B)(A,B)(A,B) and every polymer γ∈C(G)\gamma \in \mathcal C(G)γ∈C(G), the Kotecký–Preiss condition

∑γ′∈C(G): d(γ′,γ)≤3wA,B(γ′) e∣γ′∣+g(γ′)≤∣γ∣,g(γ)=Δ10q2log⁡Δ∣γ∣.\sum_{\gamma' \in \mathcal C(G):\ d(\gamma',\gamma)\le 3} w_{A,B}(\gamma')\,e^{|\gamma'| + g(\gamma')} \le |\gamma|, \qquad g(\gamma) = \frac{\Delta}{10q^2\log\Delta}|\gamma|.γ′∈C(G): d(γ′,γ)≤3∑​wA,B​(γ′)e∣γ′∣+g(γ′)≤∣γ∣,g(γ)=10q2logΔΔ​∣γ∣.

The constant CCC is left existential, as in the paper.

Milestones

In the order of the proof:

  1. Lemma 23, the expansion of almost every regular bipartite graph;
  2. Lemma 27, the bound on ∣χA,B(S)∣|\chi_{A,B}(S)|∣χA,B​(S)∣;
  3. Lemma 28, the covering of Xq(G)\mathcal X_q(G)Xq​(G) by χA,B(S)\chi_{A,B}(S)χA,B​(S) with SSS little;
  4. the product formula after (13);
  5. Claim 30, the size bound for sparse sets;
  6. the binomial estimate, an existing platform theorem;
  7. Lemma 29, the reduction;
  8. the weight bound of §5.1;
  9. the per-vertex estimate (15).

Significance

The goal is the whole mathematical content of Theorem 5. The paper's algorithm (its Theorem 8, adapted from Helmuth, Perkins and Regts, Algorithmic Pirogov–Sinai theory) takes exactly these two facts as input. Given the Kotecký–Preiss condition, the cluster expansion of each log⁡ΞA,B(G)\log\Xi_{A,B}(G)logΞA,B​(G) converges and truncating it gives the estimator; the reduction transfers the estimate to ZG(q)Z_G(q)ZG​(q). With the goal proved, the remaining distance to the FPTAS is algorithmic bookkeeping, not combinatorics.

The result has been proved since 2019 and is not formalized anywhere. A formal proof would add a machine-checked polymer-model reduction for a spin system with exponentially many ground states, a reusable model of uniformly random regular bipartite graphs, and a checked instance of the "expansion implies few ground states" argument used throughout this literature.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea is a one-ground-state expansion, as for the hard-core model, where configurations are close to "all even" or "all odd". For colorings there are 2q2^q2q patterns. A coloring can lie close to several of them, so the reduction must show that the sets χA,B(S)\chi_{A,B}(S)χA,B​(S) with SSS little overlap only negligibly. That needs an inclusion–exclusion step whose error is exponentially small in m/qm/qm/q. A second difficulty is the size of polymers: little sets are qqq times larger than the sets of the hard-core analysis. Claim 30 is what keeps the union of compatible polymers from becoming a large set that the expansion no longer controls. Finally, the constants must be uniform in qqq. The single condition Δ≥Cq2log⁡2q\Delta \ge Cq^2\log^2 qΔ≥Cq2log2q has to cover the expansion lemma, the reduction and the Kotecký–Preiss estimate at once.

Formalization scope

The FPTAS and the sampling algorithm are not formalized. Mathlib has no machine model in which "polynomial time" could be stated, and the running times carry unquantified constants. The goal is the mathematics the algorithm rests on: the reduction and the Kotecký–Preiss condition, with the paper's constants e−m/(4q)e^{-m/(4q)}e−m/(4q), 4qlog⁡Δ/Δ4q\log\Delta/\Delta4qlogΔ/Δ and Δ/(10q2log⁡Δ)\Delta/(10q^2\log\Delta)Δ/(10q2logΔ). Neither half may be dropped. Replacing e−m/(4q)e^{-m/(4q)}e−m/(4q) by an existential error, or summing the Kotecký–Preiss condition over compatible rather than incompatible polymers, would make the goal trivial or wrong.

Conventions committed to in Lean:

  • Vertices are Fin m ⊕ Fin m, and Gbip(2m,Δ)\mathcal G^{\mathrm{bip}}(2m,\Delta)Gbip(2m,Δ) is the set of labelled Δ\DeltaΔ-regular graphs with edges only between the two fixed sides. The paper does not fix a bipartition; this fixed-sides model is a disclosed choice, matching §5's ∣O∣=∣E∣=m|\mathcal O| = |\mathcal E| = m∣O∣=∣E∣=m.
  • Distances are Mathlib's extended distance edist, so vertices in different components are at distance ∞\infty∞ and never incompatible.
  • A pattern is encoded by A⊆[q]A \subseteq [q]A⊆[q] with B=[q]∖AB = [q]\setminus AB=[q]∖A. Patterns with an empty side are kept: their weights are 000 under Lean's x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0, so they contribute 000 to Z~G(q)\tilde Z_G(q)Z~G​(q), as on the page for large mmm.
  • log is the natural logarithm; the binomial estimate is used in nats.

Added hypotheses:

  • A,B≠∅A, B \ne \emptysetA,B=∅ in Lemma 27 and in the product formula, which divide by ∣A∣|A|∣A∣ and ∣B∣|B|∣B∣;
  • Δ≥3\Delta \ge 3Δ≥3 in Lemma 28 and Claim 30, the paper's standing convention (§1.3);
  • m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 in Lemma 29, which fails on the empty vertex set.

The goal needs none of these, since its limit is in mmm and its constant absorbs Δ\DeltaΔ.

A complete development needs a counting theory of random regular bipartite graphs (for Lemma 23, through Bassalygo's expansion theorem), counts of connected sets in bounded-degree graphs, and inclusion–exclusion over patterns. The random-graph model and the polymer-model definitions are reusable across this series and beyond. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to Lemma 23, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Jenssen, P. Keevash and W. Perkins, Algorithms for #BIS-hard problems on expander graphs, SIAM J. Comput. 49(4) (2020) 681–710. https://doi.org/10.1137/19M1286669
  • A. Galanis, D. Štefankovič, E. Vigoda and L. Yang, Ferromagnetic Potts model: refined #BIS-hardness and related results, SIAM J. Comput. 45(6) (2016) 2004–2065.
  • R. Peled and Y. Spinka, Rigidity of proper colorings of Zd\mathbb Z^dZd, arXiv:1808.03597 (2018). https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.03597
  • C. Liao, J. Lin, P. Lu and Z. Mao, Counting independent sets and colorings on random regular bipartite graphs, APPROX/RANDOM 2019, Schloss Dagstuhl–Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik (2019).
  • T. Helmuth, W. Perkins and G. Regts, Algorithmic Pirogov–Sinai theory, Probab. Theory Related Fields (2020); extended abstract at STOC 2019.
  • R. Kotecký and D. Preiss, Cluster expansion for abstract polymer models, Comm. Math. Phys. 103(3) (1986) 491–498.
  • L. A. Bassalygo, Asymptotically optimal switching circuits, Problems Inform. Transmission 17(3) (1981) 206–211.
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Graph TheoryMathematical Physics·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for #BIS-Hard Problems on Expander Graphs 3: On Almost Every Δ-Regular Bipartite Graph, the Hard-Core Model at λ > 50 log²Δ/Δ Reduces to Two Kotecký–Preiss Polymer ModelsResearch Paper

Motivation

The hard-core model assigns weight to independent vertex sets of a graph. Its partition function counts those sets when the activity is one and weights larger sets more heavily when the activity increases. Counting independent sets on bipartite graphs is a standard benchmark for approximate counting: the general problem is difficult, while random regular graphs have additional expansion that can make approximation possible. Jenssen, Keevash and Perkins prove an approximation and sampling theorem for almost every sufficiently high degree regular bipartite graph when the activity is above an explicit threshold Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, Theorem 2.

The question is specific to a random graph model. It does not assert the same conclusion for every regular bipartite graph. The authors use a criterion attributed to Bassalygo to show that almost every graph in the model has the expansion needed by their argument Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, Theorem 22 and Lemma 23. Liao, Lin, Lu and Mao independently obtained related counting results under somewhat stronger parameter conditions Liao–Lin–Lu–Mao, 2019.

Setting

Let GGG be a simple graph with two labelled sides O\mathcal OO and E\mathcal EE, each containing mmm vertices, and let every vertex have degree Δ\DeltaΔ. An independent set III contains no adjacent pair. For activity λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the hard-core partition function is

ZG(λ)=∑I independentλ∣I∣.Z_G(\lambda)=\sum_{I\text{ independent}}\lambda^{|I|}.ZG​(λ)=I independent∑​λ∣I∣.

For a vertex set SSS, its vertex boundary ∂S\partial S∂S consists of vertices outside SSS with a neighbor in SSS. The graph is a bipartite (σ,ρ)(\sigma,\rho)(σ,ρ)-expander when every subset of either side with size at most σm\sigma mσm has boundary of size at least ρ\rhoρ times its size. The expansion parameters used here are σ=4log⁡Δ/Δ\sigma=4\log\Delta/\Deltaσ=4logΔ/Δ and ρ=Δ/(4log⁡Δ)−1/2\rho=\Delta/(4\log\Delta)-1/2ρ=Δ/(4logΔ)−1/2. A set is tiny when its size is at most σm\sigma mσm Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, Definition 21 and §4.4.

The graph G2G^2G2 joins distinct vertices whose distance in GGG is at most two. On either side, a polymer is a nonempty, tiny, G2G^2G2-connected vertex set. Two polymers on the same side are compatible if every pair of their vertices is more than distance two apart in GGG. A polymer γ\gammaγ has weight wγ=λ∣γ∣/(1+λ)∣∂γ∣w_\gamma=\lambda^{|\gamma|}/(1+\lambda)^{|\partial\gamma|}wγ​=λ∣γ∣/(1+λ)∣∂γ∣. Summing products of weights over mutually compatible polymer families gives the partition functions ΞE(G)\Xi^{\mathcal E}(G)ΞE(G) and ΞO(G)\Xi^{\mathcal O}(G)ΞO(G) Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, §§4.1, 4.4.

“Almost every” means that, for fixed Δ\DeltaΔ, the fraction of labelled Δ\DeltaΔ-regular bipartite graphs satisfying a property tends to one as mmm tends to infinity. The random graph is chosen uniformly from graphs on the two fixed sides Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, p. 3.

Formalization targets

The first target is the authors' expansion premise: for all sufficiently large Δ\DeltaΔ, almost every graph is a bipartite (4log⁡Δ/Δ,Δ/(4log⁡Δ)−1/2)(4\log\Delta/\Delta,\Delta/(4\log\Delta)-1/2)(4logΔ/Δ,Δ/(4logΔ)−1/2)-expander. The main target combines two deterministic claims on almost every such graph. For every λ>50log⁡2Δ/Δ\lambda>50\log^2\Delta/\Deltaλ>50log2Δ/Δ, write n=2mn=2mn=2m and

Z^G(λ)=(1+λ)m(ΞE(G)+ΞO(G)),ε0=(1+λ)−n/4.\widehat Z_G(\lambda)=(1+\lambda)^m\bigl(\Xi^{\mathcal E}(G)+\Xi^{\mathcal O}(G)\bigr),\qquad \varepsilon_0=(1+\lambda)^{-n/4}.ZG​(λ)=(1+λ)m(ΞE(G)+ΞO(G)),ε0​=(1+λ)−n/4.

First, Z^G\widehat Z_GZG​ is an ε0\varepsilon_0ε0​-relative approximation in the paper's exponential convention:

e−ε0Z^G(λ)≤ZG(λ)≤eε0Z^G(λ).e^{-\varepsilon_0}\widehat Z_G(\lambda)\le Z_G(\lambda)\le e^{\varepsilon_0}\widehat Z_G(\lambda).e−ε0​ZG​(λ)≤ZG​(λ)≤eε0​ZG​(λ).

Second, each of the two polymer models obeys the Kotecký–Preiss condition with decay g(γ)=∣γ∣Δlog⁡(1+λ)/(10log⁡Δ)g(\gamma)=|\gamma|\Delta\log(1+\lambda)/(10\log\Delta)g(γ)=∣γ∣Δlog(1+λ)/(10logΔ):

∑γ′ incompatible with γwγ′e∣γ′∣+g(γ′)≤∣γ∣.\sum_{\gamma'\text{ incompatible with }\gamma}w_{\gamma'}e^{|\gamma'|+g(\gamma')}\le |\gamma|.γ′ incompatible with γ∑​wγ′​e∣γ′∣+g(γ′)≤∣γ∣.

The same graph event must support every activity above the threshold; the activity quantifier is inside the limiting probability. The intermediate targets are Bassalygo's entropy criterion, the high probability expansion lemma, the tiny-side lemma for independent sets, the approximation lemma at its weaker activity threshold, a published binomial-entropy estimate, and the per-vertex polymer sum bound Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, Theorem 22, Lemmas 23–25 and §4.5.

Significance

The reduction expresses a weighted independent-set count through two finite polymer partition functions whose weights decay under the same expansion condition. The KP bound supplies the convergence condition used by the paper's general polymer approximation theorem. Together these are the mathematical inputs to its algorithmic Theorem 2 Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, Theorems 2, 8.

A formal proof would make the expansion assumptions, distance convention, graph probability limit, and error normalization explicit. The target is a formalization of a published result, not an open conjecture. The proposal contains statements and definitions; their proofs remain to be supplied. The binomial estimate is already machine checked on Prove2Me and is included by reference.

Difficulty

An independent set can occupy vertices on both sides of a bipartite graph. Merely taking one side as the dominant phase double counts sets that are sparse on both sides. The tiny-side lemma and the polymer decomposition identify and control that overlap. The random graph step also requires an expansion estimate strong enough to apply to every small subset of either side, rather than only to a typical subset Jenssen–Keevash–Perkins, §§4.4–4.5.

Formalization scope

Lean uses finite simple graphs on Fin(m)⊕Fin(m)\mathrm{Fin}(m)\oplus\mathrm{Fin}(m)Fin(m)⊕Fin(m), with the left and right summands serving as the odd and even sides. This fixes a labelled bipartition for the uniform random graph model. Distances use extended natural graph distance, so vertices in different components have infinite distance. Polymer families include the empty family, and graph connectivity excludes the empty polymer. Sizes are natural numbers; thresholds involving logarithms are real inequalities. Binary entropy in the cited expansion theorem is measured in bits, while Mathlib's binary entropy is converted from natural units. The approximation uses exponential relative error exactly as in Definition 10 of the paper.

The FPTAS, sampling algorithm, and running-time assertion are outside this mission because Mathlib has no matching machine and cost model. The goal formalizes both the partition-function reduction and its KP condition, the mathematical inputs consumed by the paper's algorithm theorem. It quantifies over all activities above the threshold within the almost-every event, preventing a separate favorable graph set for each activity. The fixed-sides model and the explicit domain of Bassalygo's entropy formula are disclosed representation choices. The tiny-side milestone (Lemma 24) carries a graph-size threshold depending on the degree: as printed, for every graph size, it fails on small dense graphs (the complete bipartite graph minus disjoint complete blocks), and the main result uses it only as the graph size grows. Reusable contributions include finite graph expansion lemmas, polymer partition-function identities, and bounds on connected vertex sets.

Selected references

  • M. Jenssen, P. Keevash and W. Perkins, Algorithms for #BIS-hard problems on expander graphs, SIAM Journal on Computing 49(4), 2020, 681–710. DOI.
  • L. Bassalygo, Asymptotically optimal switching circuits, Problems of Information Transmission 17(3), 1981, 206–211. Publisher record.
  • C. Liao, J. Lin, P. Lu and Z. Mao, Counting independent sets and colorings on random regular bipartite graphs, APPROX/RANDOM, 2019. DOI.
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Bandit AlgorithmsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

A Primal-Dual Learning Algorithm for Personalized Dynamic Pricing with an Inventory Constraint: The Primal-Dual Learning Algorithm Has Regret at Most C(log n)^(2+δ) n^(−1/2)Research Paper

Motivation

A firm selling a fixed stock of a perishable product over a finite season must set prices without knowing how demand responds to them. Online retail and travel platforms often see a customer's segment before quoting a price, so they can price-discriminate across consumer types. Learning a separate demand curve for each type, however, seems to cost more exploration as the number of types grows. Chen and Gallego (arXiv:1812.09234v3, 2021; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022) give a learning algorithm whose regret does not depend on the number of types. Their key step is to learn a single scalar first: the shadow price of inventory.

Earlier work on the single-type problem frames the question. Besbes and Zeevi (Operations Research, 2009) defined the regret against the fluid benchmark and showed that no policy can achieve regret decaying faster than n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2. Wang, Deng and Ye (Operations Research, 2014) gave a single-product algorithm whose regret matches this rate up to logarithmic factors. Chen and Gallego extend the rate to MMM types with one inventory constraint.

Setting

There are M≥1M\ge1M≥1 consumer types, a season [0,T][0,T][0,T] and an inventory ccc. When the firm charges price ppp to type mmm, type-mmm consumers arrive at rate dm(p)d_m(p)dm​(p). Prices range over [0,p∞][0,p_\infty][0,p∞​], where p∞p_\inftyp∞​ is a choke price with dm(p∞)=0d_m(p_\infty)=0dm​(p∞​)=0. Assumption 1 asks that each dmd_mdm​ be strictly decreasing, bounded and Lipschitz, and that the revenue rate rm(λ)=λdm−1(λ)r_m(\lambda)=\lambda d_m^{-1}(\lambda)rm​(λ)=λdm−1​(λ) be Lipschitz and twice differentiable, with 0<M3≤−rm′′≤M40<M_3\le-r_m''\le M_40<M3​≤−rm′′​≤M4​.

The fluid problem (2) maximizes ∑m∫0Tpm(t)dm(pm(t)) dt\sum_m\int_0^Tp_m(t)d_m(p_m(t))\,dt∑m​∫0T​pm​(t)dm​(pm​(t))dt subject to ∑m∫0Tdm(pm(t)) dt≤c\sum_m\int_0^Td_m(p_m(t))\,dt\le c∑m​∫0T​dm​(pm​(t))dt≤c. Its optimal value is JD(T,c)J^D(T,c)JD(T,c). Its dual is one-dimensional. With

Rm(z)=max⁡pdm(p)(p−z),Pm(z)=argmax⁡pdm(p)(p−z),g(z)=cz+T∑mRm(z),\mathcal R_m(z)=\max_{p}d_m(p)(p-z),\qquad \mathcal P_m(z)=\operatorname*{argmax}_pd_m(p)(p-z),\qquad g(z)=cz+T\sum_m\mathcal R_m(z),Rm​(z)=pmax​dm​(p)(p−z),Pm​(z)=pargmax​dm​(p)(p−z),g(z)=cz+Tm∑​Rm​(z),

the dual optimum is z∗=argmin⁡z≥0g(z)z^*=\operatorname{argmin}_{z\ge0}g(z)z∗=argminz≥0​g(z), and the optimal fluid prices are the constants pm∗=Pm(z∗)p^*_m=\mathcal P_m(z^*)pm∗​=Pm​(z∗).

In the nnn-th system demand and inventory scale together: type mmm arrives as a Poisson process with rate n dm(p)n\,d_m(p)ndm​(p), and the inventory is ncncnc. The firm does not know dmd_mdm​. It knows TTT, ccc, nnn, the constants of Assumption 1 and, by Assumption 2, intervals [p‾,p‾][\underline p,\overline p][p​,p​] and [0,z‾][0,\overline z][0,z] that contain every pm∗p^*_mpm∗​ and z∗z^*z∗. A policy π\piπ has expected revenue Jnπ(T,c)J^\pi_n(T,c)Jnπ​(T,c), and its regret is

Rnπ(T,c)=1−Jnπ(T,c)JnD(T,c).R^\pi_n(T,c)=1-\frac{J^\pi_n(T,c)}{J^D_n(T,c)}.Rnπ​(T,c)=1−JnD​(T,c)Jnπ​(T,c)​.

Algorithm 1, the primal-dual learning algorithm, runs phases k=1,…,Kk=1,\dots,Kk=1,…,K of shrinking lengths τ(k)\tau^{(k)}τ(k). In each learning phase it tests a price grid inside the current interval estimators of every pm∗p^*_mpm∗​. It then minimizes an empirical dual function on a grid of zzz and re-centres the interval estimators of z∗z^*z∗ and pm∗p^*_mpm∗​. In the last phase it either charges a marked-up price (sufficient capacity), or tests two prices and interpolates between them so that total sales end close to ncncnc (insufficient capacity). Its tuning depends on a constant ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 17)

For every δ>0\delta>0δ>0 one can choose ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 and a constant CCC, independent of nnn, such that

Rnπ(T,c)≤C(log⁡n)2+δn−1/2for all n≥3.R^\pi_n(T,c)\le C(\log n)^{2+\delta}n^{-1/2}\qquad\text{for all }n\ge3.Rnπ​(T,c)≤C(logn)2+δn−1/2for all n≥3.

The two capacity regimes (Propositions 2–3)

z∗=0: Rnπ=O((log⁡n)2+16ϵn−1/2),z∗>0: Rnπ=O((log⁡n)2+18ϵn−1/2).z^*=0:\ R^\pi_n=O\big((\log n)^{2+16\epsilon}n^{-1/2}\big),\qquad z^*>0:\ R^\pi_n=O\big((\log n)^{2+18\epsilon}n^{-1/2}\big).z∗=0: Rnπ​=O((logn)2+16ϵn−1/2),z∗>0: Rnπ​=O((logn)2+18ϵn−1/2).

Milestones

  • Proposition 1: the fluid problem is solved by the constant prices p∗p^*p∗, with complementary slackness; and the monotonicity, convexity and derivative of Pm\mathcal P_mPm​ and Rm\mathcal R_mRm​.
  • Lemmas 9 and 10: a Poisson tail bound decaying faster than any power, and E∣X−λ∣≤λ\mathbb E|X-\lambda|\le\sqrt\lambdaE∣X−λ∣≤λ​.
  • Lemmas 1 and 2: K≤3log⁡n+3K\le3\log n+3K≤3logn+3, and the learning phases take at most half the season.
  • Lemmas 3–5: the interval estimators contain z∗z^*z∗, pm∗p^*_mpm∗​ and Pm\mathcal P_mPm​ on the dual interval, except with probability O((log⁡n)2/n)O((\log n)^2/n)O((logn)2/n).
  • Lemmas 6–7: the sales at the start of the last phase are close to the fluid level.
  • Lemma 8: when z∗>0z^*>0z∗>0, E∣S(T)−nc∣=O((log⁡n)ϵn1/2)\mathbb E|S(T)-nc|=O((\log n)^\epsilon n^{1/2})E∣S(T)−nc∣=O((logn)ϵn1/2).

Significance

Theorem 1 states that personalized pricing for MMM types under a shared inventory constraint is learnable at the single-type rate n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2, up to logarithms, with a constant independent of nnn. Combined with the Besbes–Zeevi lower bound, the algorithm is rate-optimal. Learning the scalar shadow price z∗z^*z∗, instead of the joint optimum of an MMM-dimensional problem, is what avoids the curse of dimensionality.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A formalization would add to the platform a multi-type Poisson pricing model with stock-outs, the one-dimensional Lagrangian dual of the fluid revenue-management problem, an exactly specified multi-phase learning algorithm, and reusable Poisson deviation lemmas. Lemmas 1, 2, 9 and 10 and Proposition 1 can be proved independently of the probabilistic analysis.

Difficulty

The obvious argument estimates every pm∗p^*_mpm∗​ directly and charges the estimate. With interval estimators of width n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4 this loses revenue of order n−1/4n^{-1/4}n−1/4 per unit time when the inventory constraint binds (z∗>0z^*>0z∗>0), because pm∗p^*_mpm∗​ is then not the unconstrained maximizer of p dm(p)p\,d_m(p)pdm​(p). The paper's (11) and (19) show the loss. The bound n−1/2n^{-1/2}n−1/2 requires steering the total sales to within O(n1/2)O(n^{1/2})O(n1/2) of the inventory, which is Lemma 8, and a second-order expansion of the revenue around p∗p^*p∗ that uses the first-order condition rm′(dm(pm∗))=z∗r_m'(d_m(p^*_m))=z^*rm′​(dm​(pm∗​))=z∗.

Formally, a further difficulty is the closed loop: the prices of a phase depend on the counts of earlier phases, and the counts are Poisson only conditionally, through the random time change Nm(n∫0tdm(Pm(s)) ds)N_m(n\int_0^td_m(P_m(s))\,ds)Nm​(n∫0t​dm​(Pm​(s))ds).

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace PrimalDualPricing.Regret. Printed page numbers equal PDF page numbers in the cited preprint.

  • Model. Types are Fin M. Each dm:R→Rd_m:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rdm​:R→R satisfies Assumption 1 on [0,p∞][0,p_\infty][0,p∞​] and is otherwise any extension with 0≤dm≤M10\le d_m\le M_10≤dm​≤M1​; the last-phase prices p‾m(K)−α\underline p^{(K)}_m-\alphap​m(K)​−α and p‾m(K)+α\overline p^{(K)}_m+\alphap​m(K)​+α can leave [0,p∞][0,p_\infty][0,p∞​]. dm(p∞)=0d_m(p_\infty)=0dm​(p∞​)=0 encodes the choke price. Pm\mathcal P_mPm​ and z∗z^*z∗ are fields carrying their optimality properties.
  • Assumption 2 is read with z∗∈[0,z‾)z^*\in[0,\overline z)z∗∈[0,z); the page prints (0,z‾)(0,\overline z)(0,z), which would drop the case z∗=0z^*=0z∗=0 that Proposition 2 and Theorem 1 cover. The price interval is placed in the domain, 0≤p‾<p‾≤p∞0\le\underline p<\overline p\le p_\infty0≤p​<p​≤p∞​.
  • Remark 2 assumes M3≤g′′≤M4M_3\le g''\le M_4M3​≤g′′≤M4​; this is read on [0,z‾][0,\overline z][0,z], because globally it is unsatisfiable. Each Pm\mathcal P_mPm​ is M2M_2M2​-Lipschitz.
  • The fluid value JDJ^DJD is the supremum of (2) over measurable price paths. The identity JD=T∑mpm∗dm(pm∗)J^D=T\sum_mp^*_md_m(p^*_m)JD=T∑m​pm∗​dm​(pm∗​) is Proposition 1.4, a milestone, and is not built into the definition.
  • The algorithm. The grid sizes N(k)N^{(k)}N(k), Nz(k)N_z^{(k)}Nz(k)​ are rounded up. Grid spacing is Δm/N\Delta_m/NΔm​/N for prices and Δz/(Nz+1)\Delta_z/(N_z+1)Δz​/(Nz​+1) for duals: the text and Table 1, respectively the text and line 15, agree on these, and Algorithm 1 line 7 and Table 1 print the other forms. Ties in (8)–(9) go to the smallest index. θ\thetaθ in (14) is projected onto [0,1][0,1][0,1], with θ=0\theta=0θ=0 when (14) is degenerate. An empty plp^lpl period in step 4 follows the pseudo-code. The decision rules never take dmd_mdm​, Pm\mathcal P_mPm​ or z∗z^*z∗ as arguments.
  • The system. MMM independent unit-rate Poisson processes (the published IsPoissonProcess) with right-continuous, jointly measurable paths. The inventory of the nnn-th system is ⌊nc⌋\lfloor nc\rfloor⌊nc⌋ units, and nothing is sold after the stock-out. Lemmas 6–8 use the uncapped sales of the paper's modified system (§4).
  • Asymptotics. "O(f(n))O(f(n))O(f(n))" is read as ∃C\exists C∃C, independent of nnn and the phase index, for all n≥3n\ge3n≥3. "Sufficiently small ϵ\epsilonϵ" is read as every ϵ∈(0,ϵ0)\epsilon\in(0,\epsilon_0)ϵ∈(0,ϵ0​). The algorithm needs n≥3n\ge3n≥3 for KKK to exist.
  • Corrected misprints. Proposition 1.2 prints Rm′=−∑mdm(Pm)\mathcal R_m'=-\sum_md_m(\mathcal P_m)Rm′​=−∑m​dm​(Pm​) with the index reused; the statement is −dm(Pm(z))-d_m(\mathcal P_m(z))−dm​(Pm​(z)). Proposition 1.3 and the global form of the bound in 1.1 fail at the kinks of Pm\mathcal P_mPm​. Part 1's derivative bound is stated as a Lipschitz bound, and part 3 is omitted. Lemmas 3–4 are stated in product form. Propositions 2–3 are stated through their regret conclusions. The printed comparison J~nπ≤Jnπ\tilde J^\pi_n\le J^\pi_nJ~nπ​≤Jnπ​ (pp. 13–14) can fail when a last-phase price exceeds p‾\overline pp​, so it is not used.

A formalization that lets the policy read the true demand, measures regret against anything other than JnDJ^D_nJnD​, ignores the stock-out in JnπJ^\pi_nJnπ​, or assumes the high-probability events of Lemma 5 would trivialize the goal; none of these is done here.

Contributions to the reusable parts are welcome: Poisson tails, the envelope theorem for Rm\mathcal R_mRm​, and the time-change construction of policy-driven Poisson sales.

Selected references

  • N. Chen, G. Gallego, A Primal-dual Learning Algorithm for Personalized Dynamic Pricing with an Inventory Constraint, arXiv:1812.09234v3, 2021; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.09234
  • O. Besbes, A. Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing Without Knowing the Demand Function: Risk Bounds and Near-Optimal Algorithms, Operations Research 57(6), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0640
  • Z. Wang, S. Deng, Y. Ye, Close the Gaps: A Learning-While-Doing Algorithm for Single-Product Revenue Management Problems, Operations Research 62(2), 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2013.1249
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.24
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Accelerated Gradient Methods for Nonconvex Nonlinear and Stochastic Programming 4: The Mini-Batch RSAG Method Bounds the Expected Gradient Mapping on Nonconvex Stochastic Composite ProblemsResearch Paper

Motivation

Training a model by stochastic gradients on a constrained or regularized loss is a stochastic composite problem: a smooth expected loss, observed only through noisy gradients, plus a simple non-smooth term such as a constraint set or an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ penalty. For convex losses, accelerated stochastic approximation methods attain the optimal rates (Lan 2012; Ghadimi & Lan 2012). For nonconvex losses, the available guarantees came from randomized stochastic gradient methods (Ghadimi & Lan 2013) and their mini-batch proximal versions (Ghadimi, Lan & Zhang 2016), which are not optimal when the problem happens to be convex.

Ghadimi and Lan (arXiv:1310.3787v1, 2013; Math. Program. 156, 2016) gave one accelerated scheme covering both cases. This mission formalizes its most general result, Theorem 4 (§3.2): the randomized stochastic accelerated gradient (RSAG) method with mini-batches, on a composite objective whose smooth part may be nonconvex and whose gradients are noisy.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean norm. The problem (1.3) is

min⁡x∈Rn Φ(x):=Ψ(x)+X(x),Ψ=f+h,\min_{x\in\mathbb R^n}\ \Phi(x):=\Psi(x)+\mathcal X(x),\qquad\Psi=f+h,x∈Rnmin​ Φ(x):=Ψ(x)+X(x),Ψ=f+h,

where fff is differentiable with LfL_fLf​-Lipschitz gradient and may be nonconvex, hhh is convex and differentiable with LhL_hLh​-Lipschitz gradient, LΨ=Lf+LhL_\Psi=L_f+L_hLΨ​=Lf​+Lh​, and X\mathcal XX is a convex, possibly non-smooth function with bounded domain KKK (for instance the indicator of a convex compact set, or that indicator plus ∥⋅∥1\|\cdot\|_1∥⋅∥1​).

The prox map (2.37) is P(x,y,c)=argmin⁡u{⟨y,u⟩+12c∥u−x∥2+X(u)}\mathcal P(x,y,c)=\operatorname{argmin}_u\{\langle y,u\rangle+\frac1{2c}\|u-x\|^2+\mathcal X(u)\}P(x,y,c)=argminu​{⟨y,u⟩+2c1​∥u−x∥2+X(u)} for c>0c>0c>0, and the gradient mapping (2.38) is G(x,y,c)=1c[x−P(x,y,c)]\mathcal G(x,y,c)=\frac1c[x-\mathcal P(x,y,c)]G(x,y,c)=c1​[x−P(x,y,c)]. With y=∇Ψ(x)y=\nabla\Psi(x)y=∇Ψ(x), a small ∥G∥\|\mathcal G\|∥G∥ certifies approximate stationarity. Assumption 2 asks for MMM with ∥P(x,y,c)∥≤M\|\mathcal P(x,y,c)\|\le M∥P(x,y,c)∥≤M for all x,yx,yx,y and c>0c>0c>0.

Gradients come from a stochastic oracle: queried at xxx, it returns G(x,ξ)G(x,\xi)G(x,ξ) for a random sample ξ\xiξ. Assumption 1 asks that the output be unbiased, E[G(x,ξ)]=∇Ψ(x)\mathbb E[G(x,\xi)]=\nabla\Psi(x)E[G(x,ξ)]=∇Ψ(x), with variance at most σ2\sigma^2σ2.

Algorithm 4 takes α1=1\alpha_1=1α1​=1, αk∈(0,1)\alpha_k\in(0,1)αk​∈(0,1) for k≥2k\ge2k≥2, βk,λk>0\beta_k,\lambda_k>0βk​,λk​>0, batch sizes mk≥1m_k\ge1mk​≥1, starts from x0=x0agx_0=x^{ag}_0x0​=x0ag​, and for k≥1k\ge1k≥1 sets

xkmd=(1−αk)xk−1ag+αkxk−1,Gˉk=1mk∑i=1mkG(xkmd,ξk,i),x^{md}_k=(1-\alpha_k)x^{ag}_{k-1}+\alpha_kx_{k-1},\qquad\bar G_k=\frac1{m_k}\sum_{i=1}^{m_k}G(x^{md}_k,\xi_{k,i}),xkmd​=(1−αk​)xk−1ag​+αk​xk−1​,Gˉk​=mk​1​i=1∑mk​​G(xkmd​,ξk,i​), xk=P(xk−1,Gˉk,λk),xkag=P(xkmd,Gˉk,βk).x_k=\mathcal P(x_{k-1},\bar G_k,\lambda_k),\qquad x^{ag}_k=\mathcal P(x^{md}_k,\bar G_k,\beta_k).xk​=P(xk−1​,Gˉk​,λk​),xkag​=P(xkmd​,Gˉk​,βk​).

With Γ1=1\Gamma_1=1Γ1​=1 and Γk=(1−αk)Γk−1\Gamma_k=(1-\alpha_k)\Gamma_{k-1}Γk​=(1−αk​)Γk−1​ (2.6), the output is (xRmd,xRag)(x^{md}_R,x^{ag}_R)(xRmd​,xRag​), where R∈{1,…,N}R\in\{1,\dots,N\}R∈{1,…,N} is drawn independently of the oracle with

Prob{R=k}=Γk−1βk(1−LΨβk)∑j=1NΓj−1βj(1−LΨβj).(3.7)\mathrm{Prob}\{R=k\}=\frac{\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)}{\sum_{j=1}^N\Gamma_j^{-1}\beta_j(1-L_\Psi\beta_j)}.\tag{3.7}Prob{R=k}=∑j=1N​Γj−1​βj​(1−LΨ​βj​)Γk−1​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​)​.(3.7)

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (pp. 21–22)

Fix N≥1N\ge1N≥1, assume for k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N

αkλk≤βk<1LΨ  (2.9),α1λ1Γ1≥α2λ2Γ2≥⋯  (2.10),\alpha_k\lambda_k\le\beta_k<\frac1{L_\Psi}\ \ (2.9),\qquad\frac{\alpha_1}{\lambda_1\Gamma_1}\ge\frac{\alpha_2}{\lambda_2\Gamma_2}\ge\cdots\ \ (2.10),αk​λk​≤βk​<LΨ​1​  (2.9),λ1​Γ1​α1​​≥λ2​Γ2​α2​​≥⋯  (2.10),

let x∗x^*x∗ be an optimal solution and S=∑k=1NΓk−1βk(1−LΨβk)S=\sum_{k=1}^N\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)S=∑k=1N​Γk−1​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​). Then

E[∥G(xRmd,∇Ψ(xRmd),βR)∥2]≤8S[∥x0−x∗∥22λ1+LfΓN(∥x∗∥2+2M2)+σ2∑k=1Nβk(4+(1−LΨβk)2)4Γk(1−LΨβk)mk],(3.30)\mathbb E\big[\|\mathcal G(x^{md}_R,\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_R),\beta_R)\|^2\big]\le\frac8S\Big[\frac{\|x_0-x^*\|^2}{2\lambda_1}+\frac{L_f}{\Gamma_N}(\|x^*\|^2+2M^2)+\sigma^2\sum_{k=1}^N\frac{\beta_k(4+(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)^2)}{4\Gamma_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)m_k}\Big],\tag{3.30}E[∥G(xRmd​,∇Ψ(xRmd​),βR​)∥2]≤S8​[2λ1​∥x0​−x∗∥2​+ΓN​Lf​​(∥x∗∥2+2M2)+σ2k=1∑N​4Γk​(1−LΨ​βk​)mk​βk​(4+(1−LΨ​βk​)2)​],(3.30)

and, if Lf=0L_f=0Lf​=0,

E[Φ(xRag)−Φ(x∗)]≤1S∑k=1Nβk(1−LΨβk)(∥x0−x∗∥22λ1+σ2∑j=1kβj(4+(1−LΨβj)2)4Γj(1−LΨβj)mj).(3.31)\mathbb E\big[\Phi(x^{ag}_R)-\Phi(x^*)\big]\le\frac1S\sum_{k=1}^N\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)\Big(\frac{\|x_0-x^*\|^2}{2\lambda_1}+\sigma^2\sum_{j=1}^k\frac{\beta_j(4+(1-L_\Psi\beta_j)^2)}{4\Gamma_j(1-L_\Psi\beta_j)m_j}\Big).\tag{3.31}E[Φ(xRag​)−Φ(x∗)]≤S1​k=1∑N​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​)(2λ1​∥x0​−x∗∥2​+σ2j=1∑k​4Γj​(1−LΨ​βj​)mj​βj​(4+(1−LΨ​βj​)2)​).(3.31)

The expectations are over RRR and all samples. The goal keeps general step sizes and batch sizes; Corollaries 4 and 5 (explicit policies) are left for follow-up work.

Milestones

In the order of the proof: Lemma 4 (G(x,⋅,c)\mathcal G(x,\cdot,c)G(x,⋅,c) is 1-Lipschitz); the mini-batch variance bound (3.28) and its consequence (3.29) for the gradient mapping; Lemma 1, (2.16) and Lemma 5, the two-sided bound −Lf2∥y−x∥2≤Ψ(y)−Ψ(x)−⟨∇Ψ(x),y−x⟩≤LΨ2∥y−x∥2-\frac{L_f}2\|y-x\|^2\le\Psi(y)-\Psi(x)-\langle\nabla\Psi(x),y-x\rangle\le\frac{L_\Psi}2\|y-x\|^2−2Lf​​∥y−x∥2≤Ψ(y)−Ψ(x)−⟨∇Ψ(x),y−x⟩≤2LΨ​​∥y−x∥2; the three-point inequalities (3.32)–(3.33) and their combination (3.34); the descent bound (2.46) (already proved on the platform) and (2.47); the one-step and summed inequalities of p. 22; the iterate bound (2.52); the summed inequality at x=x∗x=x^*x=x∗; and the expected bound (3.35).

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 covers stochastic composite problems whether or not Ψ\PsiΨ is convex, with one step-size policy. Under Corollary 4's policy and batch sizes it gives a sample complexity for E∥G∥2≤ϵ\mathbb E\|\mathcal G\|^2\le\epsilonE∥G∥2≤ϵ that improves the dependence on LhL_hLh​ over mini-batch proximal stochastic gradient [Ghadimi, Lan & Zhang 2016], and when Lf=0L_f=0Lf​=0 it recovers the optimal rate for convex stochastic composite optimization. Its proof is a template for later variance-controlled accelerated methods: a weighted Lyapunov argument in which nonconvexity enters only through LfL_fLf​ and noise only through the martingale and variance terms.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved and refereed since 2016. As far as is known, no proof assistant has a formalization of it, and the platform has no accelerated stochastic method with a nonconvex guarantee. A complete development gives machine-checked versions of the mini-batch variance bound for martingale-difference noise, the Lipschitz property of the gradient mapping, the proximal three-point inequality on a convex domain, and the composite accelerated analysis with noise. Each of these can be reused in other stochastic proximal methods.

Difficulty

Copying the deterministic composite proof (Theorem 2) fails in two places. First, the deterministic step bounds min⁡k∥Gk∥\min_k\|\mathcal G_k\|mink​∥Gk​∥ through the decrease ∥xkag−xkmd∥2\|x^{ag}_k-x^{md}_k\|^2∥xkag​−xkmd​∥2, but here xkagx^{ag}_kxkag​ is computed from Gˉk\bar G_kGˉk​, so this decrease measures the stochastic gradient mapping. Passing back to the exact one costs an extra variance term, which is why the constant is 8 rather than 2. Second, the noise δˉk\bar\delta_kδˉk​ appears in two ways. The linear term ⟨δˉk,x∗−xk−1⟩\langle\bar\delta_k,x^*-x_{k-1}\rangle⟨δˉk​,x∗−xk−1​⟩ vanishes only in expectation, and only because xk−1x_{k-1}xk−1​ is fixed before the batch is drawn. The quadratic terms need the variance of an average of dependent samples, which is σ2/mk\sigma^2/m_kσ2/mk​ only when the samples within a batch are conditionally unbiased given the earlier ones. A pathwise argument cannot remove either term, and an unconditional reading of Assumption 1 does not give the second.

Formalization scope

  • Space and smoothness. Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) (the published GhadimiLan.RSG.E). Smoothness of fff and hhh is the platform's ConvexOptAlg.SmoothGD.IsBetaSmooth. Ψ\PsiΨ, ∇Ψ\nabla\Psi∇Ψ and LΨL_\PsiLΨ​ are given with the identities Ψ=f+h\Psi=f+hΨ=f+h, ∇Ψ=∇f+∇h\nabla\Psi=\nabla f+\nabla h∇Ψ=∇f+∇h, LΨ=Lf+LhL_\Psi=L_f+L_hLΨ​=Lf​+Lh​.
  • The convex term is its domain K with finite values X and ConvexOn ℝ K X; the prox map is a function P with the minimizer hypothesis IsProxMap K X P. A real-valued X\mathcal XX on all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn is excluded: it makes Assumption 2 unsatisfiable and the goal vacuous. So is a free P with no minimizer property.
  • The noise. Oracle calls are numbered consecutively; iteration kkk makes calls Sk−1+1,…,Sk−1+mkS_{k-1}+1,\dots,S_{k-1}+m_kSk−1​+1,…,Sk−1​+mk​ with Sk=m1+⋯+mkS_k=m_1+\dots+m_kSk​=m1​+⋯+mk​, all at xkmdx^{md}_kxkmd​. Assumption 1 is the published GhadimiLan.RSG.AssumptionA1 along these query points: conditional unbiasedness given a filtration of the earlier calls, and conditional variance bound σ2\sigma^2σ2. This conditional form is what the paper's proof uses, and the i.i.d. setting satisfies it. The oracle is jointly measurable. The variance bound (3.28) is a milestone and is never assumed.
  • The output index RRR is measurable, takes values in {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N} with mass function (3.7), and is independent of the whole sample sequence. Algorithm 4 runs pathwise, for every kkk, and is evaluated at RRR, which is the paper's "run NNN steps, output the RRR-th iterate". Integrability of every expected quantity is part of each conclusion.
  • Excluded trivializations: batch size fixed to 1 (general mkm_kmk​ is kept), σ=0\sigma=0σ=0, a fixed RRR, and (3.28) taken as a hypothesis.
  • Conventions. Indexing is 1-based, and Γk=∏i=2k(1−αi)\Gamma_k=\prod_{i=2}^k(1-\alpha_i)Γk​=∏i=2k​(1−αi​), so Γ1=1\Gamma_1=1Γ1​=1. (2.9) and (2.10) are imposed for k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N, and βk<1/LΨ\beta_k<1/L_\Psiβk​<1/LΨ​ is written LΨβk<1L_\Psi\beta_k<1LΨ​βk​<1. Two hypotheses are added: an optimal x∗x^*x∗ exists (the statement uses it), and ∥x0∥≤M\|x_0\|\le M∥x0​∥≤M (used silently in (2.52) at k=1k=1k=1). The page prints Φ(x)\Phi(x)Φ(x) on the left of (3.35) where Φ(x∗)\Phi(x^*)Φ(x∗) is meant; the Lean states Φ(x∗)\Phi(x^*)Φ(x∗).

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone. Lemma 4, (3.28) and the three-point inequality are self-contained and reusable. Also welcome: the measurability of the iterates, and Corollaries 4–5 as follow-up statements.

Selected references

  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Accelerated Gradient Methods for Nonconvex Nonlinear and Stochastic Programming, arXiv:1310.3787v1, 2013; Math. Program. 156 (2016) 59–99. https://arxiv.org/abs/1310.3787v1 · https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-015-0871-8
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, H. Zhang, Mini-batch stochastic approximation methods for nonconvex stochastic composite optimization, Math. Program. 155 (2016) 267–305 (reference [13] of the paper: the mini-batch variance bound and Proposition 1, the Lipschitz property of G\mathcal GG). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-014-0846-1
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Stochastic first- and zeroth-order methods for nonconvex stochastic programming, SIAM J. Optim. 23 (2013) 2341–2368 (the randomized stochastic gradient method). https://doi.org/10.1137/120880811
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Optimal stochastic approximation algorithms for strongly convex stochastic composite optimization, I: a generic algorithmic framework, SIAM J. Optim. 22 (2012) 1469–1492 (reference [11] of the paper; its Lemma 2 is the three-point inequality). https://doi.org/10.1137/110848864
  • G. Lan, An optimal method for stochastic composite optimization, Math. Program. 133 (2012) 365–397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0434-y
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Accelerated Gradient Methods for Nonconvex Nonlinear and Stochastic Programming 3: The Randomized Stochastic AG Method Bounds E‖∇Ψ(x_R^md)‖² on Nonconvex Problems and Is Optimal on Convex OnesResearch Paper

Motivation

In stochastic programming the objective Ψ(x)=Eξ[F(x,ξ)]\Psi(x)=\mathbb E_\xi[F(x,\xi)]Ψ(x)=Eξ​[F(x,ξ)] is an expectation that cannot be evaluated, and an algorithm sees only noisy gradients G(x,ξ)G(x,\xi)G(x,ξ) drawn from a stochastic first-order oracle. Stochastic gradient descent and its relatives are the standard methods. For convex Ψ\PsiΨ the optimal rate is known: Lan's accelerated stochastic approximation method (Lan, Math. Program. 2012) reaches an expected optimality gap of order L∥x0−x∗∥2/N2+σ∥x0−x∗∥/NL\|x_0-x^*\|^2/N^2+\sigma\|x_0-x^*\|/\sqrt NL∥x0​−x∗∥2/N2+σ∥x0​−x∗∥/N​ after NNN oracle calls. For smooth nonconvex Ψ\PsiΨ, Ghadimi and Lan's randomized stochastic gradient (RSG) method (arXiv:1309.5549, SIAM J. Optim. 2013) bounds the expected squared gradient norm at a randomly chosen iterate, but it is only nearly optimal when Ψ\PsiΨ happens to be convex.

Saeed Ghadimi and Guanghui Lan (arXiv:1310.3787v1, 2013; Mathematical Programming 156, 2016) combined the two lines: the randomized stochastic accelerated gradient (RSAG) method has a guarantee for nonconvex problems, and with suitable step sizes it attains the optimal rate on convex ones. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 3 of the paper, together with the steps of its proof in §3.1.

Setting

Let Ψ:Rn→R\Psi:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb RΨ:Rn→R be differentiable with Lipschitz gradient: ∥∇Ψ(y)−∇Ψ(x)∥≤LΨ∥y−x∥\|\nabla\Psi(y)-\nabla\Psi(x)\|\le L_\Psi\|y-x\|∥∇Ψ(y)−∇Ψ(x)∥≤LΨ​∥y−x∥ for all x,yx,yx,y, with LΨ>0L_\Psi>0LΨ​>0. Gradients are available only through a stochastic oracle: at its kkk-th call, with input xxx, it returns G(x,ξk)G(x,\xi_k)G(x,ξk​), where ξ1,ξ2,…\xi_1,\xi_2,\dotsξ1​,ξ2​,… are random variables on a probability space and GGG is jointly measurable.

Algorithm 3 (RSAG). The inputs are x0∈Rnx_0\in\mathbb R^nx0​∈Rn, step sizes α1=1\alpha_1=1α1​=1, αk∈(0,1)\alpha_k\in(0,1)αk​∈(0,1) for k≥2k\ge2k≥2, βk>0\beta_k>0βk​>0, λk>0\lambda_k>0λk​>0, an iteration limit N≥1N\ge1N≥1, and a probability mass function p1,…,pNp_1,\dots,p_Np1​,…,pN​. A termination index RRR with Pr⁡{R=k}=pk\Pr\{R=k\}=p_kPr{R=k}=pk​ is drawn first, independently of the noise. With x0ag=x0x^{ag}_0=x_0x0ag​=x0​, for k=1,2,…k=1,2,\dotsk=1,2,…,

xkmd=(1−αk)xk−1ag+αkxk−1,xk=xk−1−λkG(xkmd,ξk),xkag=xkmd−βkG(xkmd,ξk),x^{md}_k=(1-\alpha_k)x^{ag}_{k-1}+\alpha_kx_{k-1},\qquad x_k=x_{k-1}-\lambda_kG(x^{md}_k,\xi_k),\qquad x^{ag}_k=x^{md}_k-\beta_kG(x^{md}_k,\xi_k),xkmd​=(1−αk​)xk−1ag​+αk​xk−1​,xk​=xk−1​−λk​G(xkmd​,ξk​),xkag​=xkmd​−βk​G(xkmd​,ξk​),

and the method stops at k=Rk=Rk=R and outputs (xRmd,xRag)(x^{md}_R,x^{ag}_R)(xRmd​,xRag​). The oracle error is δk=G(xkmd,ξk)−∇Ψ(xkmd)\delta_k=G(x^{md}_k,\xi_k)-\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_k)δk​=G(xkmd​,ξk​)−∇Ψ(xkmd​).

Assumption 1 asks that the oracle be unbiased, E[δk]=0\mathbb E[\delta_k]=0E[δk​]=0, with variance E∥δk∥2≤σ2\mathbb E\|\delta_k\|^2\le\sigma^2E∥δk​∥2≤σ2. The paper does not require the ξk\xi_kξk​ to be independent.

The weights are Γ1=1\Gamma_1=1Γ1​=1, Γk=(1−αk)Γk−1\Gamma_k=(1-\alpha_k)\Gamma_{k-1}Γk​=(1−αk​)Γk−1​, and for a horizon NNN

Ck=1−LΨλk−LΨ(λk−βk)22αkΓkλk(∑τ=kNΓτ).C_k=1-L_\Psi\lambda_k-\frac{L_\Psi(\lambda_k-\beta_k)^2}{2\alpha_k\Gamma_k\lambda_k}\Big(\sum_{\tau=k}^N\Gamma_\tau\Big).Ck​=1−LΨ​λk​−2αk​Γk​λk​LΨ​(λk​−βk​)2​(τ=k∑N​Γτ​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (pp. 15–16)

Fix N≥1N\ge1N≥1. The expectations are taken over RRR and ξ[N]=(ξ1,…,ξN)\xi_{[N]}=(\xi_1,\dots,\xi_N)ξ[N]​=(ξ1​,…,ξN​).

a) If Ψ\PsiΨ is bounded below with Ψ∗=inf⁡Ψ\Psi^*=\inf\PsiΨ∗=infΨ, Ck>0C_k>0Ck​>0 for k≤Nk\le Nk≤N, and pk=λkCk/∑jλjCjp_k=\lambda_kC_k/\sum_{j}\lambda_jC_jpk​=λk​Ck​/∑j​λj​Cj​ (3.4), then

E∥∇Ψ(xRmd)∥2≤1∑k=1NλkCk[Ψ(x0)−Ψ∗+LΨσ22∑k=1Nλk2(1+(λk−βk)2αkΓkλk2∑τ=kNΓτ)].(3.5)\mathbb E\|\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_R)\|^2\le\frac{1}{\sum_{k=1}^N\lambda_kC_k}\Big[\Psi(x_0)-\Psi^*+\frac{L_\Psi\sigma^2}{2}\sum_{k=1}^N\lambda_k^2\Big(1+\frac{(\lambda_k-\beta_k)^2}{\alpha_k\Gamma_k\lambda_k^2}\sum_{\tau=k}^N\Gamma_\tau\Big)\Big].\tag{3.5}E∥∇Ψ(xRmd​)∥2≤∑k=1N​λk​Ck​1​[Ψ(x0​)−Ψ∗+2LΨ​σ2​k=1∑N​λk2​(1+αk​Γk​λk2​(λk​−βk​)2​τ=k∑N​Γτ​)].(3.5)

b) If Ψ\PsiΨ is convex with a minimizer x∗x^*x∗, αk/(λkΓk)\alpha_k/(\lambda_k\Gamma_k)αk​/(λk​Γk​) is nonincreasing (2.10), αkλk≤LΨβk2\alpha_k\lambda_k\le L_\Psi\beta_k^2αk​λk​≤LΨ​βk2​ and βk<1/LΨ\beta_k<1/L_\Psiβk​<1/LΨ​ (3.6), and pk∝Γk−1βk(1−LΨβk)p_k\propto\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)pk​∝Γk−1​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​) (3.7), then

E∥∇Ψ(xRmd)∥2≤(2λ1)−1∥x0−x∗∥2+LΨσ2∑kΓk−1βk2∑kΓk−1βk(1−LΨβk),(3.8)\mathbb E\|\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_R)\|^2\le\frac{(2\lambda_1)^{-1}\|x_0-x^*\|^2+L_\Psi\sigma^2\sum_{k}\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k^2}{\sum_{k}\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)},\tag{3.8}E∥∇Ψ(xRmd​)∥2≤∑k​Γk−1​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​)(2λ1​)−1∥x0​−x∗∥2+LΨ​σ2∑k​Γk−1​βk2​​,(3.8) E[Ψ(xRag)−Ψ(x∗)]≤∑kβk(1−LΨβk)[(2λ1)−1∥x0−x∗∥2+LΨσ2∑j≤kΓj−1βj2]∑kΓk−1βk(1−LΨβk).(3.9)\mathbb E[\Psi(x^{ag}_R)-\Psi(x^*)]\le\frac{\sum_{k}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)\big[(2\lambda_1)^{-1}\|x_0-x^*\|^2+L_\Psi\sigma^2\sum_{j\le k}\Gamma_j^{-1}\beta_j^2\big]}{\sum_{k}\Gamma_k^{-1}\beta_k(1-L_\Psi\beta_k)}.\tag{3.9}E[Ψ(xRag​)−Ψ(x∗)]≤∑k​Γk−1​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​)∑k​βk​(1−LΨ​βk​)[(2λ1​)−1∥x0​−x∗∥2+LΨ​σ2∑j≤k​Γj−1​βj2​]​.(3.9)

The goal keeps every printed constant and leaves the step sizes free. Corollary 3 specializes them; it is not part of this mission.

Milestones

Part a): the quadratic bound (2.1) (already proved on the platform); a pathwise one-step inequality for Ψ(xk)\Psi(x_k)Ψ(xk​) (p. 16); a stochastic version of (2.17) bounding ∥xk−1ag−xk−1∥2\|x^{ag}_{k-1}-x_{k-1}\|^2∥xk−1ag​−xk−1​∥2; the summed inequality with martingale terms bkb_kbk​ (pp. 16–17); its expectation (p. 17); the identity expressing E∥∇Ψ(xRmd)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_R)\|^2E∥∇Ψ(xRmd​)∥2 as a ppp-weighted average (p. 17); Theorem 3 a). Part b): Lemma 1 (p. 4); the convexity bound (2.21); (3.10) with a sign corrected; the stochastic version of (2.22); (3.11); its two consequences at x=x∗x=x^*x=x∗ (p. 18); the weighting identity for Ψ(xRag)\Psi(x^{ag}_R)Ψ(xRag​) (p. 18); Theorem 3 b).

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 gives one stochastic first-order method with two guarantees. On a nonconvex problem it finds an approximate stationary point with an explicit bound on E∥∇Ψ∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla\Psi\|^2E∥∇Ψ∥2. On a convex problem its optimality gap matches the lower bound for stochastic convex optimization, which the RSG method does not. The method does not need to know which case it is in; only the step-size policy changes. Later work on accelerated and variance-reduced methods for nonconvex stochastic problems builds on the same analysis, and Theorem 4 of the paper extends it to composite problems with mini-batches.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper and, as far as we know, has not been machine-checked. A formal proof would check the bookkeeping that a reader usually takes on trust: the nested sums in CkC_kCk​ and bkb_kbk​, the conditional-expectation arguments that make {bk}\{b_k\}{bk​} a martingale difference sequence, and the passage from fixed horizons to the random output RRR. The printed proof has small errors (see Formalization scope), so the formal statements record the corrected forms.

Difficulty

The deterministic analysis of the AG method (Theorem 1) bounds Ψ(xN)\Psi(x_N)Ψ(xN​) along a single trajectory. In the stochastic case the same chain produces cross terms ⟨∇Ψ(xk−1),δk⟩\langle\nabla\Psi(x_{k-1}),\delta_k\rangle⟨∇Ψ(xk−1​),δk​⟩ and ⟨∇Ψ(xkmd),δk⟩\langle\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_k),\delta_k\rangle⟨∇Ψ(xkmd​),δk​⟩. These cross terms do not vanish pathwise, and the variance terms come with coefficients involving ∑τ≥kΓτ\sum_{\tau\ge k}\Gamma_\tau∑τ≥k​Γτ​ that grow backwards in time. The obvious argument would take expectations termwise. It fails unless one shows that each cross-term coefficient is measurable with respect to the past, so that its product with δk\delta_kδk​ has zero mean under conditional unbiasedness. This also requires square-integrability of every iterate, which the hypotheses do not state and which has to be established by induction. A second difficulty is the random output: the bound is on E∥∇Ψ(xRmd)∥2\mathbb E\|\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_R)\|^2E∥∇Ψ(xRmd​)∥2, an integral over RRR and the noise jointly, so the independence of RRR from the noise has to be used explicitly.

Formalization scope

  • Space and smoothness. Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) (the published GhadimiLan.RSG.E n). Ψ∈CLΨ1,1\Psi\in\mathcal C^{1,1}_{L_\Psi}Ψ∈CLΨ​1,1​ is the published predicate ConvexOptAlg.SmoothGD.IsBetaSmooth Ψ g LΨ, with g=∇Ψg=\nabla\Psig=∇Ψ, and LΨ>0L_\Psi>0LΨ​>0.
  • The run. It is defined along each noise realization by recursion and evaluated pointwise on Ω\OmegaΩ. Indices are 1-based. Γk=∏i=2k(1−αi)\Gamma_k=\prod_{i=2}^k(1-\alpha_i)Γk​=∏i=2k​(1−αi​), so Γ1=1\Gamma_1=1Γ1​=1. The run is recorded for every kkk; the paper itself notes that stopping at RRR is the same as running NNN steps and outputting the RRR-th pair.
  • Assumption 1 is the published GhadimiLan.RSG.AssumptionA1 applied to the middle points: for a filtration to which the noise is adapted, E[G(xkmd,ξk)∣Fk−1]=∇Ψ(xkmd)\mathbb E[G(x^{md}_k,\xi_k)\mid\mathcal F_{k-1}]=\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_k)E[G(xkmd​,ξk​)∣Fk−1​]=∇Ψ(xkmd​) a.s. and E∥δk∥2≤σ2\mathbb E\|\delta_k\|^2\le\sigma^2E∥δk​∥2≤σ2. This conditional form is what the paper's martingale-difference step uses. It holds when the ξk\xi_kξk​ are independent, and it allows dependent noise, as the paper does.
  • The termination index. RRR is measurable, takes values in {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}, has the mass function (3.4) or (3.7), and is independent of the whole noise sequence. Each part of the goal quantifies over its own RRR.
  • Conditions on step sizes. (2.7), (2.10) and (3.6) are required for k=1,…,Nk=1,\dots,Nk=1,…,N.
  • Expectations. Every expectation is a Lebesgue integral, and its integrability is part of the conclusion, since Lean assigns 000 to the integral of a non-integrable function.
  • Corrected typos. On p. 16, δk\delta_kδk​ is read as δτ\delta_\tauδτ​ in the stochastic (2.17), and the middle line of the summed chain has a wrong sign. In (3.10) the term βk⟨∇Ψ(xkmd),δk⟩\beta_k\langle\nabla\Psi(x^{md}_k),\delta_k\rangleβk​⟨∇Ψ(xkmd​),δk​⟩ should carry a minus sign, which this mission states as "(3.10), sign corrected". On p. 18, ∥x0−x∥\|x_0-x\|∥x0​−x∥ means ∥x0−x∗∥\|x_0-x^*\|∥x0​−x∗∥. None of these affects the theorem.

The following versions would make the goal trivial and are excluded: a deterministic oracle (σ=0\sigma=0σ=0 hard-wired), RRR fixed to NNN, an oracle GGG not tied to ∇Ψ\nabla\Psi∇Ψ, and an unconditional unbiasedness hypothesis too weak to support the martingale step.

A complete development needs conditional expectations of vector-valued random variables, square-integrability of the iterates, and the independence calculus for the random index. These parts are reusable for the companion RSG and mini-batch RSAG missions. Contributions are welcome on any milestone. The pathwise milestones (one-step bound, (2.17), (2.21), (2.22), (3.10)) need no probability theory.

Selected references

  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Accelerated Gradient Methods for Nonconvex Nonlinear and Stochastic Programming, arXiv:1310.3787v1, 2013; Math. Program. 156 (2016) 59–99. https://arxiv.org/abs/1310.3787
  • S. Ghadimi, G. Lan, Stochastic First- and Zeroth-Order Methods for Nonconvex Stochastic Programming, SIAM J. Optim. 23 (2013) 2341–2368. https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.5549
  • G. Lan, An optimal method for stochastic composite optimization, Math. Program. 133 (2012) 365–397. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-010-0434-y
  • Y. Nesterov, A method for unconstrained convex minimization problem with the rate of convergence O(1/k²), Doklady AN SSSR 269 (1983) 543–547.
21 thms2 active usersReviewed
Machine LearningOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Linear Convergence of Gradient and Proximal-Gradient Methods Under the Polyak-Łojasiewicz Condition IV: Stochastic Gradient Rates LC²/(2kμ²) and (1 − 2μα)^k [f(x_0) − f*] + LC²α/(4μ)Research Paper

Motivation

Stochastic gradient (SG) methods are the default algorithms for training machine-learning models: when an objective is an average over a very large number of training examples, computing its full gradient even a few times is infeasible, while the gradient of a single randomly chosen example is cheap. The classical convergence theory of SG rates its expected suboptimality under strong convexity — the O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) rate of Nemirovski, Juditsky, Lan and Shapiro (2009) — yet common models such as least squares with a rank-deficient design and logistic regression are convex but not strongly convex.

Karimi, Nutini and Schmidt (2016) observed that the much older Polyak–Łojasiewicz (PL) inequality of Polyak (1963) is enough to recover linear rates for gradient descent and its variants without any convexity. Their Theorem 4 transfers this observation to SG: under PL alone, SG with a decreasing step attains the O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) rate known from the strongly convex case, and SG with a constant step converges linearly to a neighbourhood of the optimum whose size is proportional to the step. This mission formalizes that theorem.

Setting

Let d≥0d\ge0d≥0 and let Rd\mathbb R^dRd carry the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. An index iii ranges over a measurable space III with a probability measure ν\nuν, and each index has a differentiable component function fi:Rd→Rf_i:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb Rfi​:Rd→R. The stochastic optimization problem (7) is to minimize

f(x)=Ei∼ν[fi(x)],f(x) = \mathbb E_{i\sim\nu}[f_i(x)],f(x)=Ei∼ν​[fi​(x)],

of which the finite sum f=1n∑i=1nfif = \frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f_if=n1​∑i=1n​fi​ (8) is the case of the uniform distribution on nnn indices. The component gradients are unbiased: Ei∼ν[∇fi(x)]=∇f(x)\mathbb E_{i\sim\nu}[\nabla f_i(x)] = \nabla f(x)Ei∼ν​[∇fi​(x)]=∇f(x) for every xxx.

The SG method (9) starts from a point x0x_0x0​ and, given step sizes αk>0\alpha_k>0αk​>0 and indices i0,i1,…i_0,i_1,\dotsi0​,i1​,… drawn independently from ν\nuν, iterates

xk+1=xk−αk∇fik(xk).x_{k+1} = x_k - \alpha_k\nabla f_{i_k}(x_k).xk+1​=xk​−αk​∇fik​​(xk​).

The iterate xkx_kxk​ is a random vector, a function of i0,…,ik−1i_0,\dots,i_{k-1}i0​,…,ik−1​.

The standing assumptions on fff (§2 of the paper) are:

  1. ∇f\nabla f∇f is LLL-Lipschitz: ∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥\|\nabla f(x)-\nabla f(y)\|\le L\|x-y\|∥∇f(x)−∇f(y)∥≤L∥x−y∥ for all x,yx,yx,y, with L>0L>0L>0;
  2. the solution set is non-empty: some x∗x^*x∗ minimizes fff, and f∗=f(x∗)f^* = f(x^*)f∗=f(x∗);
  3. the PL inequality (3) with constant μ>0\mu>0μ>0: 12∥∇f(x)∥2≥μ (f(x)−f∗)\tfrac12\|\nabla f(x)\|^2\ge\mu\,(f(x)-f^*)21​∥∇f(x)∥2≥μ(f(x)−f∗) for all xxx.

Theorem 4 adds a second-moment bound along the iterates: Ei∼ν[∥∇fi(xk)∥2]≤C2\mathbb E_{i\sim\nu}\big[\|\nabla f_i(x_k)\|^2\big]\le C^2Ei∼ν​[∥∇fi​(xk​)∥2]≤C2 for every iterate xkx_kxk​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 6)

Under the assumptions above,

  1. with the decreasing step αk=2k+12μ(k+1)2\alpha_k = \dfrac{2k+1}{2\mu(k+1)^2}αk​=2μ(k+1)22k+1​,
E[f(xk)−f∗]≤LC22kμ2(k≥1);\mathbb E[f(x_k)-f^*]\le\frac{LC^2}{2k\mu^2}\qquad(k\ge1);E[f(xk​)−f∗]≤2kμ2LC2​(k≥1);
  1. with a constant step αk=α\alpha_k=\alphaαk​=α, 0<α<12μ0<\alpha<\dfrac1{2\mu}0<α<2μ1​,
E[f(xk)−f∗]≤(1−2μα)k [f(x0)−f∗]+LC2α4μ(k≥0).\mathbb E[f(x_k)-f^*]\le(1-2\mu\alpha)^k\,[f(x_0)-f^*]+\frac{LC^2\alpha}{4\mu}\qquad(k\ge0).E[f(xk​)−f∗]≤(1−2μα)k[f(x0​)−f∗]+4μLC2α​(k≥0).

The second-moment bound is assumed separately for the run of each scheme, with the same constant CCC.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 4, p. 7)

  1. One-step bound. For any point xxx with Ei∥∇fi(x)∥2≤C2\mathbb E_i\|\nabla f_i(x)\|^2\le C^2Ei​∥∇fi​(x)∥2≤C2 and any step aaa,
Ei[f(x−a∇fi(x))]≤f(x)−a∥∇f(x)∥2+LC2a22.\mathbb E_i[f(x-a\nabla f_i(x))]\le f(x)-a\|\nabla f(x)\|^2+\frac{LC^2a^2}{2}.Ei​[f(x−a∇fi​(x))]≤f(x)−a∥∇f(x)∥2+2LC2a2​.
  1. Recursion (10). Along the run, whenever αk≥0\alpha_k\ge0αk​≥0,
E[f(xk+1)−f∗]≤(1−2αkμ) E[f(xk)−f∗]+LC2αk22.\mathbb E[f(x_{k+1})-f^*]\le(1-2\alpha_k\mu)\,\mathbb E[f(x_k)-f^*]+\frac{LC^2\alpha_k^2}{2}.E[f(xk+1​)−f∗]≤(1−2αk​μ)E[f(xk​)−f∗]+2LC2αk2​​.
  1. Decreasing step rate, the first half of the goal.
  2. Constant step rate, the second half of the goal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 places SG under PL on the same footing as SG under strong convexity: the same O(1/k)O(1/k)O(1/k) rate, with constants depending on LLL, μ\muμ and CCC only, and no convexity. Since PL holds for least squares with any design matrix and, over any compact set, for logistic regression (§2.3 of the paper), the theorem gives explicit SG rates for these models. The constant-step bound quantifies the practitioners' rule of halving the step when progress stalls: halving α\alphaα at least halves the noise floor LC2α/(4μ)LC^2\alpha/(4\mu)LC2α/(4μ).

Formalizing it. The result is proved, in a short argument, in the paper. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof exists: the existing Lean formalizations of SG rates on Prove2Me concern stationarity of non-convex objectives under a variance bound, a different noise model with a different conclusion. The remaining work is to formalize the paper's proof, which requires a usable treatment of expectations over an i.i.d. index sequence (conditioning the step from xkx_kxk​ on the past) — infrastructure that every later analysis of a stochastic first-order method can reuse.

Difficulty

The deterministic content is elementary: the descent lemma, unbiasedness, the PL inequality, a telescoping sum and a geometric series. The difficulty is probabilistic bookkeeping. Recursion (10) takes the expectation of a one-step inequality with respect to iki_kik​ alone, holding xkx_kxk​ fixed; this is legitimate because iki_kik​ is independent of i0,…,ik−1i_0,\dots,i_{k-1}i0​,…,ik−1​, of which xkx_kxk​ is a function. Making this precise requires measurability of the iterates in the sample path and a Fubini-type decomposition of the product law into the first kkk coordinates, the kkk-th coordinate and the rest. A second subtlety is that the second-moment bound holds only at the iterates, not at every point, so the one-step bound must be applied pointwise in the path, on a set of full measure, rather than once and for all.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) and ∇\nabla∇ is Mathlib's gradient. The index law is an arbitrary probability measure ν\nuν on a measurable space, and the path law is the infinite product Measure.infinitePi (fun _ => ν); the run is a deterministic function sgRun of the path. The Lipschitz-gradient assumption is stated literally on ∇f\nabla f∇f; the PL inequality is the published predicate ShiOptRates.PolyakLojasiewicz f (gradient f) μ (f xstar) (inequality (3) multiplied by 2); the solution set is a point xstar with ∀ y, f xstar ≤ f y, and f∗f^*f∗ is f xstar, never a free real.

Every expectation of a gap is a lower Lebesgue integral of max⁡(f(xk)−f∗,0)\max(f(x_k)-f^*,0)max(f(xk​)−f∗,0) with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], which equals E[f(xk)−f∗]\mathbb E[f(x_k)-f^*]E[f(xk​)−f∗] because f∗f^*f∗ is the minimum; no integrability side condition can make a bound hold by default. The second-moment bound is the lower Lebesgue integral of ∥∇fi(xk)∥2\|\nabla f_i(x_k)\|^2∥∇fi​(xk​)∥2, required for almost every path and every kkk. Unbiasedness and problem (7) carry explicit integrability, so a non-integrable gradient cannot turn them into trivialities.

The second-moment bound is deliberately not imposed at every point xxx. With the bound at every point, ∥∇f∥≤C\|\nabla f\|\le C∥∇f∥≤C everywhere, so f−f∗≤C2/(2μ)f-f^*\le C^2/(2\mu)f−f∗≤C2/(2μ) by PL, while along the gradient-ascent flow f−f∗f-f^*f−f∗ grows exponentially unless it vanishes; hence fff would be constant and the theorem vacuous. Along the iterates the hypothesis is met by non-constant objectives such as f(x)=12∥x∥2f(x)=\tfrac12\|x\|^2f(x)=21​∥x∥2.

Additions relative to the page, all disclosed in the statements: each fif_ifi​ is differentiable; (i,x)↦∇fi(x)(i,x)\mapsto\nabla f_i(x)(i,x)↦∇fi​(x) is jointly measurable, so that the iterates are random variables; the constant step is positive; the decreasing-step rate is stated for k≥1k\ge1k≥1; and "each fff has an LLL-Lipschitz continuous gradient" is read as a condition on fff, the only one the proof uses. The page's proof of the constant-step bound writes the exponent kkk where k+1k+1k+1 is meant; the statements follow the theorem's (correct) form.

Contributions welcome: the measurability of the run, the conditioning step for infinitePi, the deterministic one-step bound, and the two scalar recursions, each of which is reusable for other SG analyses.

Selected references

  • H. Karimi, J. Nutini, M. Schmidt, Linear Convergence of Gradient and Proximal-Gradient Methods Under the Polyak-Łojasiewicz Condition, ECML PKDD 2016; arXiv:1608.04636v4, 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.04636
  • B. T. Polyak, Gradient methods for minimizing functionals, USSR Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Physics 3(4), 1963. https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-5553(63)90382-3
  • A. Nemirovski, A. Juditsky, G. Lan, A. Shapiro, Robust stochastic approximation approach to stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 19(4), 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/070704277
  • F. Bach, E. Moulines, Non-strongly-convex smooth stochastic approximation with convergence rate O(1/n), NeurIPS 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1306.2119
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Functional AnalysisMarkov ChainStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Spectral Gaps for a Metropolis–Hastings Algorithm in Infinite Dimensions I: The pCN Algorithm Has a Wasserstein Spectral Gap Uniform in the Dimension When the Potential Is Globally LipschitzResearch Paper

Motivation

Sampling from a distribution described relative to a Gaussian reference law is common in Bayesian inverse problems, where an unknown function or initial condition is inferred from noisy observations. Such a distribution is naturally infinite dimensional before it is approximated on a computer. A numerical method must therefore behave reliably as the approximation dimension grows. Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer study this question for Metropolis–Hastings chains and prove that the preconditioned Crank–Nicolson (pCN) chain admits a Wasserstein mixing bound with an iteration count independent of the projection dimension Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014). This mission formalizes their globally Lipschitz case, Theorem 2.12.

The central practical concern is concrete: refining a discretization should improve the target approximation without forcing the number of Markov steps needed for a fixed contraction to grow with the number of coordinates. A bound on each finite dimensional chain separately would not settle that concern, because its constants could deteriorate with dimension. The theorem requires one set of constants for the infinite dimensional chain and every finite dimensional projection.

Setting

Let HHH be a separable real Hilbert space. Its Gaussian reference measure γ\gammaγ has mean zero and a covariance eigenbasis e1,e2,…e_1,e_2,\ldotse1​,e2​,…. The subspace KmK_mKm​ is the span of the first mmm eigenvectors, and γm\gamma_mγm​ is the law of the orthogonal projection of a γ\gammaγ-distributed vector onto KmK_mKm​. The potential Φ:H→R\Phi:H\to\mathbb RΦ:H→R determines the target measures

μ(dx)=Me−Φ(x)γ(dx),μm(dx)=Mme−Φ(x)γm(dx),\mu(dx)=M e^{-\Phi(x)}\gamma(dx),\qquad \mu_m(dx)=M_m e^{-\Phi(x)}\gamma_m(dx),μ(dx)=Me−Φ(x)γ(dx),μm​(dx)=Mm​e−Φ(x)γm​(dx),

where MMM and MmM_mMm​ normalize each measure. The paper's finite dimensional chain has state space KmK_mKm​, rather than the whole space HHH with unused coordinates Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), (1.1)–(1.2).

At step size 0<δ≤1/20<\delta\le1/20<δ≤1/2, the pCN proposal from xxx is y=1−2δ x+2δ ξy=\sqrt{1-2\delta}\,x+\sqrt{2\delta}\,\xiy=1−2δ​x+2δ​ξ, with ξ\xiξ drawn from γ\gammaγ or γm\gamma_mγm​ as appropriate. The move is accepted with probability 1∧eΦ(x)−Φ(y)1\wedge e^{\Phi(x)-\Phi(y)}1∧eΦ(x)−Φ(y); rejection leaves the state at xxx. Write PPP and PmP_mPm​ for these transition kernels Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), (1.3), (1.5)–(1.6).

The potential is globally Lipschitz, e−Φe^{-\Phi}e−Φ is γ\gammaγ-integrable, and the acceptance probability has a positive lower bound in specified balls centered at 1−2δ x\sqrt{1-2\delta}\,x1−2δ​x outside a bounded region. These are Assumptions 2.10 and 2.11 Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), p. 12. The allowed ball radius is either a positive constant or r0∥x∥ar_0\|x\|^ar0​∥x∥a with r0>0r_0>0r0​>0 and 1/2<a<11/2<a<11/2<a<1.

Formalization targets

Uniform Wasserstein contraction

For ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, set dε(x,y)=1∧∥x−y∥/εd_\varepsilon(x,y)=1\wedge\|x-y\|/\varepsilondε​(x,y)=1∧∥x−y∥/ε. Choose the Lyapunov function V(x)=∥x∥iV(x)=\|x\|^iV(x)=∥x∥i, where i≥1i\ge1i≥1, or, in the growing-radius case, V(x)=ev∥x∥V(x)=e^{v\|x\|}V(x)=ev∥x∥ with v>0v>0v>0. The weighted cost is d~(x,y)=dε(x,y)(1+V(x)+V(y))\widetilde d(x,y)=\sqrt{d_\varepsilon(x,y)(1+V(x)+V(y))}d(x,y)=dε​(x,y)(1+V(x)+V(y))​, and Wd~W_{\widetilde d}Wd​ is its infimum over couplings.

Theorem 2.12 asserts that μ\muμ and each μm\mu_mμm​ are the unique invariant probability measures of PPP and PmP_mPm​. It also asserts that, for every sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε, there is one integer n~\widetilde nn satisfying both bounds for all probability measures on the respective spaces and for every mmm Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), p. 12:

Wd~(ν1Pn~,ν2Pn~)≤12Wd~(ν1,ν2),W_{\widetilde d}(\nu_1P^{\widetilde n},\nu_2P^{\widetilde n})\le\tfrac12 W_{\widetilde d}(\nu_1,\nu_2),Wd​(ν1​Pn,ν2​Pn)≤21​Wd​(ν1​,ν2​), Wd~m(ν1Pmn~,ν2Pmn~)≤12Wd~m(ν1,ν2).W_{\widetilde d_m}(\nu_1P_m^{\widetilde n},\nu_2P_m^{\widetilde n})\le\tfrac12 W_{\widetilde d_m}(\nu_1,\nu_2).Wdm​​(ν1​Pmn​,ν2​Pmn​)≤21​Wdm​​(ν1​,ν2​).

Here d~m\widetilde d_mdm​ is the same formula restricted to KmK_mKm​. The milestone list includes the uniform Lyapunov, contraction and smallness claims and the cited weak Harris theorem; the Gaussian projection comparison of Lemma 3.1 is a further stated lemma of the mission. Fernique's Gaussian exponential-moment result is linked to its existing published formalization.

Significance

The result bounds the number of pCN iterations needed for a fixed Wasserstein contraction uniformly over the finite dimensional approximations. It also identifies the intended target as the only invariant probability measure, so the contraction describes convergence toward the measure used by the inverse problem. The weighted Wasserstein cost permits this statement on an unbounded Hilbert space, where an ordinary total variation small-set argument would impose a different kind of regularity Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), §§2.2–2.3.

The paper proved Theorem 2.12 in 2014. The remaining work here is a machine-checked development of the pCN kernels, Gaussian projections, Wasserstein estimates, and weak Harris application. A formalized Fernique theorem already exists in the platform library; the pCN estimates and Theorem 2.12 are open draft statements in this proposal. They will be reusable in the locally Lipschitz pCN regime and in analyses of other Metropolis kernels that satisfy the same abstract contraction conditions.

Difficulty

The pCN proposal contracts the starting points, but the accept–reject step can break that direct coupling: one chain may accept a proposal while the other rejects it. A bound on the proposal distance alone therefore does not imply a bound on the transition laws. The probability of that mismatched decision must be controlled near each pair of starting points, while the acceptance lower bound must remain uniform on the projected spaces. Large starting points also require a Lyapunov estimate to enter the bounded region used by the weak Harris theorem Hairer, Stuart and Vollmer (2014), §§3.1.1–3.1.3.

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents HHH as a complete separable real inner product space with Borel measurable structure, γ\gammaγ as a centered Gaussian probability measure, and the chosen Hilbert basis as diagonalizing its covariance. Second countability is stated explicitly for the measurable pCN construction; for a separable metric space it follows from the standing setting. The projected law is the pushforward by the orthogonal projection onto KmK_mKm​, a reading of the Karhunen–Loève formula in the paper. A measurable map is essential here: Mathlib's pushforward returns zero for a nonmeasurable map.

The target is Mathlib's normalized tilted measure. The theorem explicitly concludes that both the infinite dimensional and projected targets are probability measures, so the possible junk zero from a nonintegrable tilt cannot satisfy the result. Wasserstein costs and Lyapunov expectations use extended nonnegative integrals. This avoids the junk zero of a nonintegrable Bochner integral and the junk values of a real infimum. Couplings are measures with the prescribed marginals. The acceptance kernel uses the paper's 1∧eΦ(x)−Φ(y)1\wedge e^{\Phi(x)-\Phi(y)}1∧eΦ(x)−Φ(y), including the first proposal and its rejection probability.

“Sufficiently small ε\varepsilonε” means ∃ε0>0 ∀ε∈(0,ε0]\exists\varepsilon_0>0\,\forall\varepsilon\in(0,\varepsilon_0]∃ε0​>0∀ε∈(0,ε0​]. The iteration count is chosen before mmm and before the input probability measures. Positive radius, positive power exponent and positive exponential coefficient exclude empty acceptance balls and the constant Lyapunov function. The m=0m=0m=0 projection is retained as the zero dimensional subspace. Contributions that establish the Gaussian comparison, the three pCN estimates, or the abstract weak Harris statement are within scope.

Selected references

  • M. Hairer, A. M. Stuart and S. J. Vollmer, Spectral gaps for a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm in infinite dimensions, Annals of Applied Probability 24(6), 2014, 2455–2490. arXiv:1112.1392v4, DOI:10.1214/13-AAP982.
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Dynamical SystemsMarkov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Coexistence and Extinction for Stochastic Kolmogorov Systems 1: If Every Boundary Ergodic Measure Repels, X Converges Exponentially Fast in Total Variation to a Unique Interior Stationary LawResearch Paper

Motivation

Whether interacting species can coexist in a fluctuating environment is one of the basic questions of mathematical ecology. Deterministic models (Lotka–Volterra competition, predator–prey systems, food chains) answer it through invasion criteria: a population persists if, whenever it is rare, it grows. In a random environment the analogous criterion is phrased through Lyapunov exponents (long-run per-capita growth rates) computed against stationary distributions of the subcommunities in which some species are absent. Schreiber, Benaïm and Atchadé ([SBA11], J. Math. Biol. 62 (2011), MR 2786721) proved such a criterion for stochastic differential equations on a compact state space; A. Hening and D. H. Nguyen (arXiv:1704.06984, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2018) extended it to the non-compact orthant R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​, which is where population sizes actually live, and added an exponential rate of convergence.

Timeline. [SBA11] (2011) gave the compact-state SDE criterion via a minimax principle; Hening and Nguyen (2017/2018) removed compactness, proved convergence in total variation at a geometric rate, and in the same paper gave matching extinction results (the second and third missions of this series).

Setting

Let n≥1n\ge1n≥1 be the number of populations and X(t)=(X1(t),…,Xn(t))∈R+n=[0,∞)nX(t)=(X_1(t),\dots,X_n(t))\in\mathbb R^n_+=[0,\infty)^nX(t)=(X1​(t),…,Xn​(t))∈R+n​=[0,∞)n their sizes. The stochastic Kolmogorov system is

dXi(t)=Xi(t)fi(X(t)) dt+Xi(t)gi(X(t)) dEi(t),i=1,…,n,dX_i(t)=X_i(t)f_i(X(t))\,dt+X_i(t)g_i(X(t))\,dE_i(t),\qquad i=1,\dots,n,dXi​(t)=Xi​(t)fi​(X(t))dt+Xi​(t)gi​(X(t))dEi​(t),i=1,…,n,

where fif_ifi​ are per-capita growth rates, gig_igi​ noise intensities, and E(t)=Γ⊤B(t)E(t)=\Gamma^\top B(t)E(t)=Γ⊤B(t) with BBB an nnn-dimensional standard Brownian motion and Σ=Γ⊤Γ=(σij)\Sigma=\Gamma^\top\Gamma=(\sigma_{ij})Σ=Γ⊤Γ=(σij​). Write R+n,∘=(0,∞)n\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+=(0,\infty)^nR+n,∘​=(0,∞)n for the states with all species present, ∂R+n\partial\mathbb R^n_+∂R+n​ for its complement (some species absent) and ∥x∥=∑i∣xi∣\|x\|=\sum_i|x_i|∥x∥=∑i​∣xi​∣.

Assumption 1.1 (standing) requires: the matrix (gi(x)gj(x)σij)(g_i(x)g_j(x)\sigma_{ij})(gi​(x)gj​(x)σij​) is positive definite on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​; fi,gif_i,g_ifi​,gi​ are locally Lipschitz; and for some c∈R+n,∘c\in\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+c∈R+n,∘​, γb>0\gamma_b>0γb​>0,

lim sup⁡∥x∥→∞[∑icixifi(x)1+c⊤x−12∑i,jσijcicjxixjgi(x)gj(x)(1+c⊤x)2+γb(1+∑i(∣fi(x)∣+gi2(x)))]<0,\limsup_{\|x\|\to\infty}\Big[\frac{\sum_ic_ix_if_i(x)}{1+c^\top x}-\frac12\frac{\sum_{i,j}\sigma_{ij}c_ic_jx_ix_jg_i(x)g_j(x)}{(1+c^\top x)^2}+\gamma_b\Big(1+\sum_i(|f_i(x)|+g_i^2(x))\Big)\Big]<0,∥x∥→∞limsup​[1+c⊤x∑i​ci​xi​fi​(x)​−21​(1+c⊤x)2∑i,j​σij​ci​cj​xi​xj​gi​(x)gj​(x)​+γb​(1+i∑​(∣fi​(x)∣+gi2​(x)))]<0,

a dissipativity condition satisfied by logistic and competitive Lotka–Volterra models.

PX(t,x,⋅)P_X(t,x,\cdot)PX​(t,x,⋅) is the law of X(t)X(t)X(t) started at xxx. A probability measure μ\muμ is invariant if ∫PX(t,x,⋅) μ(dx)=μ\int P_X(t,x,\cdot)\,\mu(dx)=\mu∫PX​(t,x,⋅)μ(dx)=μ for all ttt; ergodic invariant measures are the extreme points of that convex set. M\mathcal MM is the set of ergodic invariant probability measures supported on ∂R+n\partial\mathbb R^n_+∂R+n​ (it contains the Dirac mass δ∗\delta^*δ∗ at 000), and Conv(M)\mathrm{Conv}(\mathcal M)Conv(M) its finite convex combinations. The Lyapunov exponent of species iii at μ\muμ is

λi(μ)=∫(fi(x)−σiigi2(x)2)μ(dx).\lambda_i(\mu)=\int\Big(f_i(x)-\frac{\sigma_{ii}g_i^2(x)}{2}\Big)\mu(dx).λi​(μ)=∫(fi​(x)−2σii​gi2​(x)​)μ(dx).

Assumption 1.2: max⁡iλi(μ)>0\max_i\lambda_i(\mu)>0maxi​λi​(μ)>0 for every μ∈Conv(M)\mu\in\mathrm{Conv}(\mathcal M)μ∈Conv(M) — every boundary state is invadable by some missing species.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1 (p. 6)

Under Assumptions 1.1 and 1.2 there is an invariant probability measure π∗\pi^*π∗ with π∗(R+n,∘)=1\pi^*(\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+)=1π∗(R+n,∘​)=1, it is the only invariant probability measure concentrated on R+n,∘\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+R+n,∘​, and for some r∈(0,1)r\in(0,1)r∈(0,1) and every x∈R+n,∘x\in\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+x∈R+n,∘​ there is CxC_xCx​ with

∥PX(t,x,⋅)−π∗∥TV≤Cx rt,t≥0.\|P_X(t,x,\cdot)-\pi^*\|_{TV}\le C_x\,r^t,\qquad t\ge0.∥PX​(t,x,⋅)−π∗∥TV​≤Cx​rt,t≥0.

This is strong stochastic persistence (Definition 1.1) with an exponential rate; it leaves the rate rrr and the constants unspecified, as the paper does.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof: well-posedness, invariant faces and the moment bound (3.6) (Lemma 3.1); uniform moment bounds and the Feller property (Lemma 3.2); integrability under invariant measures (Lemma 3.3); δ∗∈M\delta^*\in\mathcal Mδ∗∈M; convergence of occupation-measure integrals (Lemma 3.4); the log-Laplace bound (Lemma 3.5); irreducibility, aperiodicity and petite compacts for the skeleton chain (Lemma 3.6); the weighted invasion rate (4.1); boundary repulsion on average (Lemma 4.1); the Lyapunov contraction near the boundary (Proposition 4.1); the geometric drift (4.18); geometric ergodicity of the skeleton chain (4.26).

Significance

The result. Theorem 1.1 turns coexistence into a checkable condition on boundary subcommunities: one computes invasion rates of missing species against the stationary laws of the smaller systems. It is the persistence half of a dichotomy whose extinction half (Theorems 1.2–1.3) uses the same exponents, and it underlies the classification of stochastic food chains in the paper's own §2 (Theorem 2.1). The exponential rate gives quantitative mixing and supports further limit theorems for time averages.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper but no machine-checked proof is recorded in this mission. A formalization exercises a chain of tools largely absent from current libraries: strong solutions of SDEs with locally Lipschitz coefficients on a closed orthant, the Feller property, tightness and weak limits of occupation measures, invariant and ergodic measures of diffusions, Meyn–Tweedie theory for skeleton chains, and log-Laplace (cumulant) estimates. Each milestone is a self-contained target; several (Lemma 3.5, the Meyn–Tweedie step) are independent of the population model.

Difficulty

The naive argument — positive invasion rates at each boundary ergodic measure imply that the process is pushed away from the boundary — fails twice. First, the state space is non-compact, so occupation measures need not be tight and the growth-rate functionals are unbounded; Assumption 1.1(3) and the moment bounds of Lemmas 3.2–3.4 are what replace compactness. Second, invasion rates are averages along the boundary dynamics, not pointwise drifts: the Lyapunov function V(x)=(1+c⊤x)/∏ixipiV(x)=(1+c^\top x)/\prod_ix_i^{p_i}V(x)=(1+c⊤x)/∏i​xipi​​ decreases only on average over a time window of length T∗T^*T∗, and turning this into a uniform contraction of VθV^\thetaVθ requires controlling the full log-Laplace transform of the increment ln⁡V(X(T))−ln⁡V(x)\ln V(X(T))-\ln V(x)lnV(X(T))−lnV(x) (Proposition 4.1), not just its mean. Uniformity of all constants in the starting point is the delicate part.

Formalization scope

The process is a family X x of strong solutions, one from each x∈R+nx\in\mathbb R^n_+x∈R+n​, on one probability space driven by one Brownian motion, using the published Ethier–Kurtz definitions SolvesBrownianSDE and IsStandardBrownian on Rn=\mathbb R^n=Rn= SDEState n. Coordinates are Fin n; n≥1n\ge1n≥1. The coefficients are functions on Rn\mathbb R^nRn read at the positive part x+x^+x+, which agrees with the model on R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​. The norm is ℓ1\ell^1ℓ1. Invariance is stated through the transition probabilities PX(t,x,⋅)=P_X(t,x,\cdot)=PX​(t,x,⋅)= law of Xx(t)X^x(t)Xx(t); ergodic means extremal invariant. The lim sup⁡<0\limsup<0limsup<0 of (1.2) is written as "≤−ε\le-\varepsilon≤−ε for ∥x∥≥R\|x\|\ge R∥x∥≥R". Total variation is the published MarkovChainCLT.tvDist, sup⁡A∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣\sup_A|\mu(A)-\nu(A)|supA​∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣; the paper does not fix the factor 222, and geometric convergence is insensitive to it. The constants M>0,δ0M>0,\delta_0M>0,δ0​ of §3 are data satisfying (3.1), (3.2); HHH is the supremum (3.5).

Deviations, all disclosed in the items: aperiodicity is the Meyn–Tweedie notion (no cycle of d≥2d\ge2d≥2 nonempty disjoint sets), because the literal definition on p. 15 makes every chain aperiodic; (4.1), cited from [SBA11, Lemma 4], retains the attained minimum 2ρ∗2\rho^*2ρ∗ and is stated only in the direction used. Lemma 3.5 allows K2K_2K2​ to depend on the fixed θ0\theta_0θ0​ as its proof requires, despite the page saying “only on K1K_1K1​”. Expectations of nonnegative quantities are lower Lebesgue integrals; wherever a Bochner integral appears, its integrability is part of the conclusion.

Trivializing readings are excluded: uniqueness is among invariant measures on R+n,∘\mathbb R^{n,\circ}_+R+n,∘​ only (boundary invariant measures always exist), M\mathcal MM is nonempty (δ∗∈M\delta^*\in\mathcal Mδ∗∈M is a milestone, so Assumption 1.2 is never vacuous), and every existential constant is quantified before the points it must be uniform in. The logistic model on p. 4 gives a nonvacuous instance of Assumption 1.1.

Contributions welcome: general SDE well-posedness on invariant closed sets, Feller and tightness results for diffusions, Meyn–Tweedie geometric ergodicity for kernels, and cumulant-generating-function bounds, all reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Hening, D. H. Nguyen, Coexistence and extinction for stochastic Kolmogorov systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 28(3), 2018. arXiv:1704.06984v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1704.06984
  • S. J. Schreiber, M. Benaïm, K. A. S. Atchadé, Persistence in fluctuating environments, J. Math. Biol. 62(5), 655–683, 2011. MR 2786721, https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=2786721
  • S. P. Meyn, R. L. Tweedie, Stability of Markovian processes I: criteria for discrete-time chains, Adv. Appl. Probab. 24(3), 542–574, 1992. MR 1174380, https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=1174380
  • R. Khasminskii, Stochastic Stability of Differential Equations, 2nd ed., Springer, 2012. MR 2894052, https://mathscinet.ams.org/mathscinet-getitem?mr=2894052
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items 2: Selling Two I.I.D. Goods Separately Guarantees at Least e/(e + 1) ≈ 73% of the Optimal RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller with several goods can sell them one at a time or offer a mechanism that links allocation and payment across goods. Separate selling asks the seller to solve a one-good pricing problem for each item. A general mechanism can offer lotteries and menus whose outcomes depend on the buyer's whole valuation vector. The difference matters because the buyer's private information covers several values at once, and an optimal multidimensional mechanism need not resemble an ordinary posted price. Hart and Nisan ask how much revenue is guaranteed by simple selling rules when the joint valuation distribution is unrestricted apart from the stated independence assumptions (Hart and Nisan, arXiv:1204.1846v3).

This mission isolates their two-good, identically distributed result, Theorem B. The paper first gives a one-half guarantee for two independent goods with potentially different distributions, then improves the guarantee to e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) when their distributions agree. The improvement is a claim about every probability law on nonnegative values. It assumes neither a density nor a regularity condition on the tail of that law. The paper proves the result in Appendix A.1 after stating it in the introduction (Hart and Nisan, pp. 6 and 31–35).

Setting

There is one risk-neutral buyer and one seller. For two goods, the buyer's private valuation is a vector (Y,Z)(Y,Z)(Y,Z) with Y,Z≥0Y,Z\ge0Y,Z≥0. Values are additive: receiving both goods is worth Y+ZY+ZY+Z. The seller knows the distribution of the vector but not the realized values. In this mission, YYY and ZZZ are independent and have the same arbitrary probability law ν\nuν on R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​. A law, rather than a named pair of random variables on a probability space, carries all the data needed by the revenue quantities.

A direct mechanism μ=(q,s)\mu=(q,s)μ=(q,s) takes a reported pair x=(y,z)x=(y,z)x=(y,z) and returns an allocation probability qi(x)∈[0,1]q_i(x)\in[0,1]qi​(x)∈[0,1] for each good and a real payment s(x)s(x)s(x) to the seller. The buyer's payoff from reporting truthfully is b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x)b(x)=q(x)\cdot x-s(x)b(x)=q(x)⋅x−s(x). The mechanism is incentive compatible (IC) if truthful reporting is at least as good as any other report for every possible valuation, and individually rational (IR) if truthful payoff is nonnegative everywhere. These requirements hold on the whole nonnegative orthant, as in Section 2.1 of the paper (Hart and Nisan, pp. 11–14).

Write R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) for the expected payment under a valuation law XXX and Rev⁡(X)\operatorname{Rev}(X)Rev(X) for the supremum of R(μ;X)R(\mu;X)R(μ;X) over feasible, IC, IR mechanisms. For one good, write Rev⁡1(ν)\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)Rev1​(ν). The separate-selling revenue for two identically distributed goods is SRev⁡(Y,Z)=2Rev⁡1(ν)\operatorname{SRev}(Y,Z)=2\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)SRev(Y,Z)=2Rev1​(ν). Equation (1) of the paper identifies the one-good value with the supremum of posted-price revenue pPr⁡[Y≥p]p\Pr[Y\ge p]pPr[Y≥p]; the supremum formulation covers laws for which no maximizing price exists (Hart and Nisan, p. 12; Myerson, 1981).

Formalization targets

Theorem B: the guarantee for two i.i.d. goods

The goal is the exact upper bound written at the start of the paper's proof:

Rev⁡(Y,Z)≤e+1e(Rev⁡(Y)+Rev⁡(Z))=e+1eSRev⁡(Y,Z).\operatorname{Rev}(Y,Z)\le\frac{e+1}{e}\bigl(\operatorname{Rev}(Y)+\operatorname{Rev}(Z)\bigr)=\frac{e+1}{e}\operatorname{SRev}(Y,Z).Rev(Y,Z)≤ee+1​(Rev(Y)+Rev(Z))=ee+1​SRev(Y,Z).

Equivalently, separate selling guarantees at least e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) of optimal revenue whenever the ratio has an ordinary meaning. The inequality itself is the stable formulation at zero and infinite revenues. The formal goal uses the exact constant (e+1)/e(e+1)/e(e+1)/e, not the rounded percentage in the theorem's prose (Hart and Nisan, Theorem B, p. 6; proof, p. 31).

Supporting targets

The milestones include the one-good posted-price identity, the fact that nonnegative payments suffice when optimizing, symmetrization for identical independent goods, Lemma 19's lower-valuation revenue bound, equation (12), and the two expectation estimates and final numerical bound used after it. Proposition 5's IC characterization is also a draft theorem, though it is not a milestone. Each statement retains its source's domain and the constant 1/e1/e1/e. The final inequality for the right side of (12) is stated for every nondecreasing allocation function into [0,1][0,1][0,1], as required by the paper's argument on pp. 33–35.

Significance

Theorem B gives a distribution-free quantitative guarantee for an easy-to-describe selling rule in a setting where the optimal rule may depend on the buyer's entire two-dimensional private type. Its e/(e+1)e/(e+1)e/(e+1) guarantee is stronger than the one-half guarantee for merely independent goods stated as Theorem A. The conclusion concerns the best revenue available from all feasible IC and IR mechanisms, so the benchmark includes randomized allocations and payments depending on both reported values (Hart and Nisan, pp. 6 and 11–13).

The formalization target is a machine-checked version of a proved result, not a new conjecture. The proposal currently contains compiled Lean statements with unproved theorem bodies. A completed development would prove the stated inequality and its selected supporting results. It would also supply reusable definitions for direct mechanisms with additive nonnegative values, extended-real revenue, optimal revenue as a supremum, and symmetry of two-good mechanisms. No machine-checked proof of these proposed Hart–Nisan statements is claimed here.

Difficulty

The one-good posted-price formula does not directly control an arbitrary two-good mechanism: allocation of either good and the payment can depend on both reported values. Applying a one-good bound separately to the two coordinates therefore leaves terms that depend on the other coordinate. In particular, a direct comparison between each marginal posted-price optimum and the total payment loses the improved constant. The proof has to control the dependence created by a joint mechanism while retaining the exact 1/e1/e1/e numerical estimate. A second formal difficulty is that an admissible mechanism can have a negative expected payment even though optimal revenue is nonnegative, while an unrestricted law can give infinite optimal revenue. Replacing every expectation by an ordinary real integral or clipping each mechanism's revenue would change Lemma 19 and the intermediate inequalities (Hart and Nisan, pp. 31–35).

Formalization scope

Valuations are finite vectors ι→R≥0\iota\to\mathbb R_{\ge0}ι→R≥0​; the main theorem fixes ι=Fin⁡(2)\iota=\operatorname{Fin}(2)ι=Fin(2). The two-good law is the product of the same one-good probability measure in both coordinates, so independence and identical distribution are built into the data. The model represents allocation probabilities as real numbers with explicit bounds 0≤qi≤10\le q_i\le10≤qi​≤1. It requires IC and IR pointwise on all reports. No positive transfer (NPT) means s(x)≥0s(x)\ge0s(x)≥0 and is imposed only on supporting statements where the paper uses it. Following the paper's footnote 12, admissibility also requires the payment function to be measurable.

An individual expected payment is an extended real difference of positive and negative Lebesgue integrals. For IC mechanisms, the negative part is finite because the payment is bounded below by its value at zero. Optimal revenue is the supremum of the nonnegative clips of admissible mechanisms' expected payments; the zero mechanism makes this the same supremum as in the paper. Lemma 19 and equation (12) keep individual revenue in the extended reals. Supporting inequalities that write r=Rev⁡1(ν)r=\operatorname{Rev}_1(\nu)r=Rev1​(ν) as a real number explicitly assume r<∞r<\inftyr<∞; Theorem B does not. Integrals of bounded threshold functions use ordinary real expectation, while the nonnegative term WWW uses a nonnegative Lebesgue integral. The goal cannot be satisfied by a correlated joint law, a bounded-support special case, a vacuous assumption on ν\nuν, or a rounded constant.

The reusable work includes one-good posted-price revenue for arbitrary laws, a nonnegative-transfer reduction, a faithful single-mechanism revenue type, and probability identities for two independent coordinates. Theorem A, Theorem 7, Theorem 16, and a full formalization of the paper's other selling rules are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • Sergiu Hart and Noam Nisan, Approximate Revenue Maximization with Multiple Items, Journal of Economic Theory, 2017. Source used here: arXiv:1204.1846v3.
  • Roger B. Myerson, Optimal Auction Design, Mathematics of Operations Research 6(1), 1981. DOI:10.1287/moor.6.1.58.
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Dynamical SystemsHarmonic AnalysisMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Bounds for Random Neural Networks and Reservoir Systems II: Echo State Networks with Random Weights Approximate Regular Functionals with an Explicit L² Error Bound (Theorem 2)Research Paper

Motivation

Reservoir computing learns an input/output system from data in two stages. A dynamical system, the reservoir, is driven by the input sequence and its state is recorded; then only a linear readout of that state is trained, by least squares. The echo state network (ESN) is the most widely used reservoir: its state evolves by xt=σ(Axt−1+Czt+ζ)x_t = \sigma(Ax_{t-1} + Cz_t + \zeta)xt​=σ(Axt−1​+Czt​+ζ), with the matrices A,CA, CA,C and the vector ζ\zetaζ drawn at random and never trained. ESNs predict chaotic systems well in practice (Jaeger & Haas, Science 2004), and they are known to be universal: for every fading-memory input/output map some ESN approximates it (Grigoryeva & Ortega, Neural Netw. 2018). Universality does not explain the practice, where the reservoir weights are random and fixed in advance. Gonon, Grigoryeva & Ortega (Ann. Appl. Probab. 2023) prove that an ESN whose weights are drawn from an explicit distribution that does not depend on the target approximates every sufficiently regular target, with an explicit L2L^2L2 error bound. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 2, and the chain of results its proof rests on.

Setting

Time runs over Z−={0,−1,−2,… }\mathbb Z_- = \{0, -1, -2, \dots\}Z−​={0,−1,−2,…}. Inputs take values in a set DdD_dDd​ with 0∈Dd⊂BM⊂Rd0 \in D_d \subset B_M \subset \mathbb R^d0∈Dd​⊂BM​⊂Rd, where BMB_MBM​ is the closed Euclidean ball of radius M>0M > 0M>0. The input Z=(Zt)t∈Z−Z = (Z_t)_{t \in \mathbb Z_-}Z=(Zt​)t∈Z−​​ is a DdD_dDd​-valued process with law μZ\mu_ZμZ​. The target is a functional H∗:(Dd)Z−→RH^* : (D_d)^{\mathbb Z_-} \to \mathbb RH∗:(Dd​)Z−​→R, the present output as a function of the whole input history. All norms are Euclidean.

Regularity. Fix weights w−i>0w_{-i} > 0w−i​>0 with ∑ii w−i<∞\sum_i i\, w_{-i} < \infty∑i​iw−i​<∞. H∗H^*H∗ is www-Lipschitz with constant L>0L > 0L>0 if ∣H∗(u)−H∗(v)∣≤L∑i≥0w−i∥u−i−v−i∥|H^*(u) - H^*(v)| \le L\sum_{i \ge 0} w_{-i}\|u_{-i} - v_{-i}\|∣H∗(u)−H∗(v)∣≤L∑i≥0​w−i​∥u−i​−v−i​∥. Assumption 1 asks, in addition, for every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1: with q=d(T+1)q = d(T+1)q=d(T+1), the truncation HT∗(z0,…,z−T)=H∗(…,0,z−T,…,z0)H^*_T(z_0, \dots, z_{-T}) = H^*(\dots, 0, z_{-T}, \dots, z_0)HT∗​(z0​,…,z−T​)=H∗(…,0,z−T​,…,z0​) has a Fourier representation HT∗(u)=∫Rqei⟨w,u⟩gT(w) dwH^*_T(u) = \int_{\mathbb R^q} e^{i\langle w, u\rangle} g_T(w)\,dwHT∗​(u)=∫Rq​ei⟨w,u⟩gT​(w)dw on (Dd)T+1(D_d)^{T+1}(Dd​)T+1, with gT∈L1g_T \in L^1gT​∈L1 and ∫max⁡(1,∥w∥3)∣gT(w)∣2 dw<∞\int \max(1, \|w\|^3)|g_T(w)|^2\,dw < \infty∫max(1,∥w∥3)∣gT​(w)∣2dw<∞.

The random ESN. Fix T,N≥1T, N \ge 1T,N≥1, R>0R > 0R>0, and a bound MTM_TMT​ with ∥(Z0,…,Z−T)∥≤MT\|(Z_0, \dots, Z_{-T})\| \le M_T∥(Z0​,…,Z−T​)∥≤MT​ almost surely. Draw A1,…,ANA_1, \dots, A_NA1​,…,AN​ i.i.d. uniform on BR⊂RqB_R \subset \mathbb R^qBR​⊂Rq and, independently, ζ1,…,ζN\zeta_1, \dots, \zeta_Nζ1​,…,ζN​ i.i.d. uniform on [−max⁡(MTR,1),max⁡(MTR,1)][-\max(M_TR,1), \max(M_TR,1)][−max(MT​R,1),max(MT​R,1)]. With SSS the block shift on Rq\mathbb R^qRq and ccc the embedding of Rd\mathbb R^dRd into the first block, and aaa the matrix with rows Ai⊤A_i^\topAi⊤​, put

Aˉ=(S0aS0),Cˉ=(cac),ζˉ=(0ζ),A=(Aˉ−Aˉ−AˉAˉ),C=(Cˉ−Cˉ),ζ=(ζˉ−ζˉ).\bar A = \begin{pmatrix} S & 0\\ aS & 0\end{pmatrix},\quad \bar C = \begin{pmatrix} c\\ ac\end{pmatrix},\quad \bar\zeta = \begin{pmatrix} 0\\ \zeta\end{pmatrix},\quad A = \begin{pmatrix}\bar A & -\bar A\\ -\bar A & \bar A\end{pmatrix},\quad C = \begin{pmatrix}\bar C\\ -\bar C\end{pmatrix},\quad \zeta = \begin{pmatrix}\bar\zeta\\ -\bar\zeta\end{pmatrix}.Aˉ=(SaS​00​),Cˉ=(cac​),ζˉ​=(0ζ​),A=(Aˉ−Aˉ​−AˉAˉ​),C=(Cˉ−Cˉ​),ζ=(ζˉ​−ζˉ​​).

The ESN is Xt=σ(AXt−1+CZt+ζ)X_t = \sigma(AX_{t-1} + CZ_t + \zeta)Xt​=σ(AXt−1​+CZt​+ζ), Yt=WXtY_t = WX_tYt​=WXt​, with σ(x)=max⁡(x,0)\sigma(x) = \max(x, 0)σ(x)=max(x,0) and state space R2(N+d(T+1))\mathbb R^{2(N+d(T+1))}R2(N+d(T+1)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 54)

For every H∗H^*H∗ satisfying Assumption 1 there is a readout WWW, a function of the random weights alone, such that the ESN has the echo state property (a unique state sequence for every input) and

E[∣Y0−H∗(Z)∣2]1/2≤CT,RN+∫Rq∖BR∣gT(u)∣ du+LM∑i>Tw−i,\mathbb E\big[|Y_0 - H^*(Z)|^2\big]^{1/2} \le \frac{\sqrt{C_{T,R}}}{\sqrt N} + \int_{\mathbb R^q \setminus B_R}|g_T(u)|\,du + LM\sum_{i > T} w_{-i},E[∣Y0​−H∗(Z)∣2]1/2≤N​CT,R​​​+∫Rq∖BR​​∣gT​(u)∣du+LMi>T∑​w−i​,

with CT,R=16max⁡(MTR,1)Volq(BR)(MT+1)2(MT3+MT+16)∫BRmax⁡(1,∥u∥3)∣gT(u)∣2 duC_{T,R} = 16\max(M_TR,1)\mathrm{Vol}_q(B_R)(M_T+1)^2(M_T^3+M_T+16)\int_{B_R}\max(1,\|u\|^3)|g_T(u)|^2\,duCT,R​=16max(MT​R,1)Volq​(BR​)(MT​+1)2(MT3​+MT​+16)∫BR​​max(1,∥u∥3)∣gT​(u)∣2du.

Milestones

  1. (8), p. 33: a scalar identity expressing eiz−iz−1e^{iz} - iz - 1eiz−iz−1 as an integral of ReLU ramps.
  2. Proposition 2, pp. 31–32: under a Fourier condition, fff is an integral of ReLU ridge functions with a compactly supported, square-integrable weight π\piπ.
  3. Proposition 3, pp. 41–42: a static ReLU network with uniformly sampled inner weights achieves mean-square error C∗/NC^*/NC∗/N.
  4. Corollary 1, p. 43: the same with a dimension-free integrability condition and a truncation term.
  5. Remark 10, p. 53: the shift reservoir is nilpotent, has K=IK = IK=I and stores the last T+1T+1T+1 inputs.
  6. Proposition 6, p. 51: a linear reservoir with a random ReLU readout satisfies the bound (54).
  7. (64)–(66), pp. 55–56: every solution of the ESN reduces to the linear shift reservoir, which gives uniqueness.

Significance

Theorem 2 is the first approximation bound for echo state networks whose recurrent and input weights are sampled from a generic distribution rather than constructed from the target. The bound separates three error sources: a Monte Carlo term decaying like N−1/2N^{-1/2}N−1/2, a truncation term in the sampling radius RRR, and a memory term in the window length TTT. Because the readout can be taken to be the least-squares readout, the bound also controls the trained networks used in practice, and it is the input to the paper's rate and universality corollaries (Corollaries 4 and 5).

Status: the result is proved on paper. No part of it is formalized; the only reservoir-computing material on the platform is the published definition ReservoirESN (the state equation), which this mission reuses. A formal proof would supply the first machine-checked random-feature approximation bound with explicit constants.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails in two places. First, the classical integral representations of Barron type place the inner weights on unbounded sets, which cannot be sampled uniformly; Proposition 2 needs a change of variables that makes the weight compactly supported while keeping it square integrable, and this costs the factor R−(2q+2)R^{-(2q+2)}R−(2q+2) and the condition (5). Second, a ReLU network is not contractive, so the echo state property of the ESN cannot be taken from the standard contraction criterion; it has to be derived from the block structure of AAA, which makes the difference of the two state halves follow a nilpotent linear recursion.

Formalization scope

Rq\mathbb R^qRq is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin (T+1) × Fin d), block kkk holding z−kz_{-k}z−k​; input sequences are ℕ → EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d) with index k=−tk = -tk=−t, and xt=F(xt−1,zt)x_t = F(x_{t-1}, z_t)xt​=F(xt−1​,zt​) is the published ReservoirESN.IsSolution. Points of Rq+1\mathbb R^{q+1}Rq+1 are pairs with norm (∥w∥2+u2)1/2(\|w\|^2 + u^2)^{1/2}(∥w∥2+u2)1/2. The uniform laws are Lebesgue measure conditioned on the ball or interval; NNN i.i.d. rows have the product law. The input is independent of the weights (§4.1) and DdD_dDd​-valued with 0∈Dd⊂BM0 \in D_d \subset B_M0∈Dd​⊂BM​ (§5.1): expectations are iterated lower Lebesgue integrals over μZ\mu_ZμZ​ and the product law, and probability-(1−δ)(1-\delta)(1−δ) statements bound the product measure of the bad set. The scalar output case m=1m = 1m=1 is used, as in the paper. Assumption 1 is required for every T≥1T \ge 1T≥1, as printed.

A readout allowed to depend on the input would make every bound trivial; in every statement the readout is a measurable function of the inner weights alone.

Departures from the print, each disclosed in the item: the last term of Proposition 6 is the L2(μZ)L^2(\mu_Z)L2(μZ​) norm of ∥K−1ST+1X−T−1∥\|K^{-1}S^{T+1}X_{-T-1}\|∥K−1ST+1X−T−1​∥, which the page prints outside the expectation; the state space of the linear reservoir (52) is a parameter DND_NDN​, as in §2.1, and its solution is assumed to be a random process; Proposition 3 omits "C∗>0C^* > 0C∗>0" (the explicit value (33) is used); measurability of the Fourier density ggg is stated where the page leaves it implicit.

A complete development needs Fourier integrals on Euclidean spaces, change of variables under linear maps, product measures and Fubini–Tonelli, and an importance-sampling variance bound. The static results (Propositions 2, 3, Corollary 1) are reusable for random-feature models beyond reservoir computing. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Gonon, L. Grigoryeva, J.-P. Ortega, Approximation bounds for random neural networks and reservoir systems, Ann. Appl. Probab. 33(1), 28–69, 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1806
  • L. Grigoryeva, J.-P. Ortega, Echo state networks are universal, Neural Netw. 108, 495–508, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neunet.2018.08.025
  • H. Jaeger, H. Haas, Harnessing nonlinearity: predicting chaotic systems and saving energy in wireless communication, Science 304, 78–80, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1091277
  • A. R. Barron, Universal approximation bounds for superpositions of a sigmoidal function, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 39, 930–945, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.256500
  • J. M. Klusowski, A. R. Barron, Approximation by combinations of ReLU and squared ReLU ridge functions with ℓ1 and ℓ0 controls, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 64, 7649–7656, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1109/tit.2018.2874447
  • C. Cuchiero, L. Gonon, L. Grigoryeva, J.-P. Ortega, J. Teichmann, Discrete-time signatures and randomness in reservoir computing, IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. Learn. Syst., 2021. https://doi.org/10.1109/TNNLS.2021.3076777
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Dynamical SystemsMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Bounds for Random Neural Networks and Reservoir Systems III: Echo State Networks with Output Feedback and Random Weights Approximate Contracting Reservoirs (Theorem 4)Research Paper

Motivation

An echo state network with output feedback is a recurrent model whose previous output is fed back into its next hidden-state update. In reservoir computing only the linear output weights are trained, while the internal weights are fixed, typically after being drawn at random. This raises a quantitative question: if the internal rows are sampled from a fixed law, can a network with NNN blocks of random rows and a suitable linear readout approximate a given input–output rule, and at what rate in NNN? Gonon, Grigoryeva and Ortega answer this for targets generated by contracting reservoir systems. Their Theorem 4 (p. 63) gives, with explicit constants, a probability bound and an excess-risk bound of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​, plus a term decaying geometrically in the length TTT of the observation window. The input set is not required to be bounded: the bound depends on the input process only through E[max⁡t∥Zt∥]\mathbb E[\max_{t}\|Z_t\|]E[maxt​∥Zt​∥] over the window.

Setting

Inputs are vectors in a set Dd⊆RdD_d\subseteq\mathbb R^dDd​⊆Rd and an input history is z=(zt)t∈Z−z=(z_t)_{t\in\mathbb Z_-}z=(zt​)t∈Z−​​, with Z−={0,−1,−2,… }\mathbb Z_-=\{0,-1,-2,\dots\}Z−​={0,−1,−2,…}. A target reservoir is a map F∗:RN∗×Dd→BMF^*:\mathbb R^{N^*}\times D_d\to B_MF∗:RN∗×Dd​→BM​, with BMB_MBM​ the closed Euclidean ball of radius MMM, such that F∗(⋅,v)F^*(\cdot,v)F∗(⋅,v) is an rrr-contraction for every v∈Ddv\in D_dv∈Dd​, with r∈(0,1)r\in(0,1)r∈(0,1). Its reservoir functional is H∗(z)=x0∗H^*(z)=x^*_0H∗(z)=x0∗​, where xt∗=F∗(xt−1∗,zt)x^*_t=F^*(x^*_{t-1},z_t)xt∗​=F∗(xt−1∗​,zt​) for all t∈Z−t\in\mathbb Z_-t∈Z−​. The output dimension is m=N∗m=N^*m=N∗.

The approximating network has NNN blocks of N∗N^*N∗ rows. Each row is a vector ω=(a,c,ζ)∈RN∗+d+1\omega=(a,c,\zeta)\in\mathbb R^{N^*+d+1}ω=(a,c,ζ)∈RN∗+d+1, and the Nˉ=NN∗\bar N=NN^*Nˉ=NN∗ rows Uj(i)U_j^{(i)}Uj(i)​ of [A,C,ζ][A,C,\zeta][A,C,ζ] are i.i.d. with law π\piπ. With an activation σ\sigmaσ and a readout matrix W∈Mm,NˉW\in\mathbb M_{m,\bar N}W∈Mm,Nˉ​, the system is

xt=σ(Ayt−1+Czt+ζ),yt=Wxt,t=−T,…,0,y−T−1=Ξ,x_t=\sigma(Ay_{t-1}+Cz_t+\zeta),\qquad y_t=Wx_t,\qquad t=-T,\dots,0,\qquad y_{-T-1}=\Xi,xt​=σ(Ayt−1​+Czt​+ζ),yt​=Wxt​,t=−T,…,0,y−T−1​=Ξ,

with T≥1T\ge1T≥1 and ∥Ξ∥≤M\|\Xi\|\le M∥Ξ∥≤M; its functional is HWA,C,ζ(z)=y0H^{A,C,\zeta}_W(z)=y_0HWA,C,ζ​(z)=y0​. For each k≥1k\ge1k≥1 and j=1,…,N∗j=1,\dots,N^*j=1,…,N∗ a signed measure πjk≪π\pi_j^k\ll\piπjk​≪π defines the integral map

Fj∗,N(x,v)=∫σ((x,v,1)⋅ω) πjN(dω).F_j^{*,N}(x,v)=\int\sigma((x,v,1)\cdot\omega)\,\pi_j^N(d\omega).Fj∗,N​(x,v)=∫σ((x,v,1)⋅ω)πjN​(dω).

The constant C∗=43Lσsup⁡k∑j(∫∥ω∥2(dπjk/dπ)2dπ)1/2C_*=4\sqrt3L_\sigma\sup_{k}\sum_j(\int\|\omega\|^2(d\pi_j^k/d\pi)^2d\pi)^{1/2}C∗​=43​Lσ​supk​∑j​(∫∥ω∥2(dπjk​/dπ)2dπ)1/2 measures the size of these densities, and sN=E[max⁡t∈{0,…,−T}sup⁡x∈BM+1∥F∗,N(x,Zt)−F∗(x,Zt)∥]s_N=\mathbb E[\max_{t\in\{0,\dots,-T\}}\sup_{x\in B_{M+1}}\|F^{*,N}(x,Z_t)-F^*(x,Z_t)\|]sN​=E[maxt∈{0,…,−T}​supx∈BM+1​​∥F∗,N(x,Zt​)−F∗(x,Zt​)∥] is the approximation error of F∗,NF^{*,N}F∗,N. The input process ZZZ is independent of (A,C,ζ)(A,C,\zeta)(A,C,ζ), Y0Y_0Y0​ is an integrable target, and the loss L≥0L\ge0L≥0 is Lipschitz with constant LLL_LLL​. The echo state event ΩESP\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}}ΩESP​ of (87) is the event that ∥WFA,C,ζ(x,Zt)∥≤M+1\|WF^{A,C,\zeta}(x,Z_t)\|\le M+1∥WFA,C,ζ(x,Zt​)∥≤M+1 for all x∈BM+1x\in B_{M+1}x∈BM+1​ and t∈{0,…,−T}t\in\{0,\dots,-T\}t∈{0,…,−T}, where FA,C,ζ(x,v)=σ(Ax+Cv+ζ)F^{A,C,\zeta}(x,v)=\sigma(Ax+Cv+\zeta)FA,C,ζ(x,v)=σ(Ax+Cv+ζ).

Formalization targets

Steps of the proof

The milestones are the displayed estimates of the proof, in attack order:

  1. (89): one step of the error recursion on ΩESP\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}}ΩESP​, E[∥Yt−Xt∗∥1ΩESP]≤E[sup⁡y∥⋯∥]+sN+r E[∥Yt−1−Xt−1∗∥1ΩESP]\mathbb E[\|Y_t-X^*_t\|\mathbb 1_{\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}}}]\le\mathbb E[\sup_{y}\|\cdots\|]+s_N+r\,\mathbb E[\|Y_{t-1}-X^*_{t-1}\|\mathbb 1_{\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}}}]E[∥Yt​−Xt∗​∥1ΩESP​​]≤E[supy​∥⋯∥]+sN​+rE[∥Yt−1​−Xt−1∗​∥1ΩESP​​];
  2. (90): splitting into coordinates and symmetrization of the uniform error of the random map;
  3. (91): a deterministic bound on Rademacher averages,
Eεsup⁡y∈BM+1∣∑i=1Nviεiσ((y,z,1)⋅ui)∣≤2Lσ((M+1)(∑ivi2∥ai∥2)1/2+∥z∥(∑ivi2∥ci∥2)1/2+(∑ivi2ζi2)1/2);\mathbb E_\varepsilon\sup_{y\in B_{M+1}}\Big|\sum_{i=1}^N v_i\varepsilon_i\sigma((y,z,1)\cdot u_i)\Big|\le2L_\sigma\Big((M+1)\big(\textstyle\sum_iv_i^2\|a_i\|^2\big)^{1/2}+\|z\|\big(\sum_iv_i^2\|c_i\|^2\big)^{1/2}+\big(\sum_iv_i^2\zeta_i^2\big)^{1/2}\Big);Eε​y∈BM+1​sup​​i=1∑N​vi​εi​σ((y,z,1)⋅ui​)​≤2Lσ​((M+1)(∑i​vi2​∥ai​∥2)1/2+∥z∥(∑i​vi2​∥ci​∥2)1/2+(∑i​vi2​ζi2​)1/2);
  1. (92)–(93): for each fixed input z∈Ddz\in D_dz∈Dd​,
Esup⁡y∈BM+1∥1N∑i=1NWiσ(A(i)y+C(i)z+ζ(i))−F∗,N(y,z)∥≤(M+2+∥z∥)C∗N;\mathbb E\sup_{y\in B_{M+1}}\Big\|\frac1N\sum_{i=1}^NW_i\sigma(A^{(i)}y+C^{(i)}z+\zeta^{(i)})-F^{*,N}(y,z)\Big\|\le\frac{(M+2+\|z\|)C_*}{\sqrt N};Ey∈BM+1​sup​​N1​i=1∑N​Wi​σ(A(i)y+C(i)z+ζ(i))−F∗,N(y,z)​≤N​(M+2+∥z∥)C∗​​;
  1. (96): P(Ω∖ΩESP)≤2(M+2+E[max⁡t∥Zt∥])C∗/N+2sN\mathbb P(\Omega\setminus\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}})\le2(M+2+\mathbb E[\max_t\|Z_t\|])C_*/\sqrt N+2s_NP(Ω∖ΩESP​)≤2(M+2+E[maxt​∥Zt​∥])C∗​/N​+2sN​.

Goal: Theorem 4

There is a readout WWW, a function of (A,C,ζ)(A,C,\zeta)(A,C,ζ) alone, such that for every δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1) and every ∥Ξ∥≤M\|\Xi\|\le M∥Ξ∥≤M, with probability at least max⁡(1−δ−2C∗(M+2+E[max⁡t∥Zt∥])/N−2sN,0)\max(1-\delta-2C_*(M+2+\mathbb E[\max_t\|Z_t\|])/\sqrt N-2s_N,0)max(1−δ−2C∗​(M+2+E[maxt​∥Zt​∥])/N​−2sN​,0), the event ΩESP\Omega_{\mathrm{ESP}}ΩESP​ holds and

∣R(HWA,C,ζ)−R(H∗)∣≤LLδ[(M+2+max⁡tE∥Zt∥)C∗(1−r)N+sN1−r+2(M+1)rT+1],|\mathcal R(H^{A,C,\zeta}_W)-\mathcal R(H^*)|\le \frac{L_L}{\delta}\Big[\frac{(M+2+\max_t\mathbb E\|Z_t\|)C_*}{(1-r)\sqrt N}+\frac{s_N}{1-r}+2(M+1)r^{T+1}\Big],∣R(HWA,C,ζ​)−R(H∗)∣≤δLL​​[(1−r)N​(M+2+maxt​E∥Zt​∥)C∗​​+1−rsN​​+2(M+1)rT+1],

where R(H)=E[L(H(Z),Y0)]\mathcal R(H)=\mathbb E[L(H(Z),Y_0)]R(H)=E[L(H(Z),Y0​)] is evaluated at fixed network weights.

Significance

The bound separates three sources of error: sampling NNN blocks of random rows (rate 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​), the approximation of F∗F^*F∗ by the integral map F∗,NF^{*,N}F∗,N (sNs_NsN​), and the finite initialization of the feedback recursion (rT+1r^{T+1}rT+1). Only the readout depends on the target; the internal weights are generated without it. The theorem also bounds the probability that the random feedback map leaves the state ball on which the recursion is controlled, which is the form in which the echo state property enters. Via Theorem 3 (p. 62), which specializes the densities through the paper's Proposition 2, it gives approximation rates for ReLU output-feedback networks.

The paper proves the result on pp. 63–68. No part of it is formalized. A complete development would give machine-checked Rademacher symmetrization and contraction estimates for random features, uniform-over-a-ball bounds for sampled integral maps, and a treatment of finite feedback recursions on product probability spaces, all reusable outside reservoir computing.

Difficulty

A pointwise approximation of F∗F^*F∗ by the sampled map does not control the feedback system, because the next feedback value is itself the random output of the previous update. The comparison must hold uniformly over the state ball BM+1B_{M+1}BM+1​ and over the whole input window, and the event that the recursion leaves the ball must be charged to an explicit probability. The uniform bound requires symmetrization and the Ledoux–Talagrand contraction principle for a supremum over a continuum of states, with per-index contractions; Lipschitz continuity of σ\sigmaσ alone does not supply the vanishing at zero that principle needs. The input is unbounded, so the input dependence must be tracked through ∥z∥\|z\|∥z∥ and integrated at the end.

Formalization scope

States, inputs, outputs and rows are Euclidean spaces (EuclideanSpace); a row is indexed by ({1..N∗}⊔{1..d})⊔{∗}(\{1..N^*\}\sqcup\{1..d\})\sqcup\{\ast\}({1..N∗}⊔{1..d})⊔{∗} and the rows by {1..N}×{1..N∗}\{1..N\}\times\{1..N^*\}{1..N}×{1..N∗}. Time t∈Z−t\in\mathbb Z_-t∈Z−​ is the index −t∈N-t\in\mathbb N−t∈N; the equation (78) is the published ReservoirESN.IsSolution. The rows have law π⊗NN∗\pi^{\otimes NN^*}π⊗NN∗ on their own space and (Z,Y0)(Z,Y_0)(Z,Y0​) lives on a separate probability space; the probability is under the product law, which encodes the independence of §6.1. Signed measures πjk\pi_j^kπjk​ are their Radon–Nikodym densities with respect to π\piπ, with integrability and first-moment hypotheses. C∗C_*C∗​, sNs_NsN​ and E[max⁡t∥Zt∥]\mathbb E[\max_t\|Z_t\|]E[maxt​∥Zt​∥] are extended nonnegative integrals and suprema, converted to reals only under their finiteness hypotheses; the risk integrals are finite under the loss Lipschitz bound, integrable target and input-moment assumption; the supremum in (87) is unfolded. F∗F^*F∗ is assumed jointly measurable, the standing convention that makes sNs_NsN​ and H∗(Z)H^*(Z)H∗(Z) random variables; the standing assumptions d,N∗≥1d,N^*\ge1d,N∗≥1 and M>0M>0M>0 (p. 30) and T≥1T\ge1T≥1 (§6.1) are hypotheses.

Trivialization ruled out. The readout is a measurable function of the rows only and is chosen before δ\deltaδ and Ξ\XiΞ. A readout allowed to look at the input ZZZ would make the claim a different and much weaker statement.

Correction of the print. The goal and milestones (91), (93), (96) assume σ(0)=0\sigma(0)=0σ(0)=0: the contraction principle cited at (91) needs contractions vanishing at zero, while the printed theorem states only that σ\sigmaσ is Lipschitz. ReLU, the paper's application, satisfies it. The goal retains the printed full risk difference. Its proof passes through (88), where an indicator depending on ZZZ is moved inside a risk integral; this step needs further justification. The milestone quotations keep the printed text.

Contributions are welcome on each milestone, on general Rademacher symmetrization and contraction lemmas for suprema over compact parameter sets, on measurability of suprema of continuous random fields, and on the printed form of the risk bound.

Selected references

  • L. Gonon, L. Grigoryeva and J.-P. Ortega, Approximation bounds for random neural networks and reservoir systems, The Annals of Applied Probability 33(1), 2023, 28–69. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-AAP1806
  • M. Ledoux and M. Talagrand, Probability in Banach Spaces: Isoperimetry and Processes, Springer, 1991 (Theorem 4.12, the contraction principle). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-20212-4
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Information TheoryQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

Semidefinite Programming Hierarchies for Constrained Bilinear Optimization II: De Finetti Without Symmetry — Random Subsystems Are 3k^{3/2}d_B³ log d_B/√(n−k+1)-Close to Product in ExpectationResearch Paper

Motivation

Quantum information often describes a system through a state shared among many small registers. One would like to replace the state on a few registers by a product of their individual states, because product states are easier to estimate and optimize over. The usual finite quantum de Finetti theorems obtain such approximations from permutation symmetry. A physical preparation, however, need not be symmetric. Berta, Borderi, Fawzi and Scholz give a quantitative statement that instead selects the retained registers at random and conditions on measurements of other registers. Their Theorem 2.5 is the target here.

The authors place this result alongside their hierarchy for constrained bilinear optimization, but the theorem without symmetry is independent of the hierarchy. In §2.6 they compare its polynomial dependence on the local dimension and the number of retained registers with the earlier no-symmetry approximation discussed in their reference [12]. The result identifies exactly what random selection and measurement can supply when a global permutation-invariance hypothesis is unavailable.

Setting

Let BBB be a quantum system of dimension dBd_BdB​, and let ρ\rhoρ be an arbitrary density operator on nnn copies of BBB. Choose a uniformly random permutation of these copies. Its first kkk positions form an ordered tuple i⃗=(i1,…,ik)\vec i=(i_1,\ldots,i_k)i=(i1​,…,ik​) of systems to retain; the remaining r=n−kr=n-kr=n−k positions form an ordered tuple j⃗=(j1,…,jr)\vec j=(j_1,\ldots,j_r)j​=(j1​,…,jr​) available for measurement. There is no symmetry condition on ρ\rhoρ.

A measurement on BBB has finitely many outcomes zzz and positive operators MzM_zMz​ whose sum is the identity. Measure the first mmm systems j1,…,jmj_1,\ldots,j_mj1​,…,jm​, where 0≤m≤r0\le m\le r0≤m≤r, and condition the retained state on the observed outcomes. Write ρi⃗∣z\rho_{\vec i\mid z}ρi∣z​ for that conditional state and ρis∣z\rho_{i_s\mid z}ρis​∣z​ for its marginal on the sssth retained system. The trace norm ∥X∥1=Tr⁡X†X\|X\|_1=\operatorname{Tr}\sqrt{X^\dagger X}∥X∥1​=TrX†X​ measures the error between ρi⃗∣z\rho_{\vec i\mid z}ρi∣z​ and ρi1∣z⊗⋯⊗ρik∣z\rho_{i_1\mid z}\otimes\cdots\otimes\rho_{i_k\mid z}ρi1​∣z​⊗⋯⊗ρik​∣z​. The expectation is over the uniform permutation and the measurement outcomes, with their Born-rule probabilities.

The distortion with side information of a fixed measurement is the largest ratio between an input trace norm and the norm left after measuring only its BBB factor. The input ranges over Hermitian operators on A⊗BA\otimes BA⊗B, over every finite-dimensional side system AAA, with zero partial trace on both AAA and BBB. The paper's f(B∣⋅)f(B\mid\cdot)f(B∣⋅) is the infimum of this distortion over all measurements on BBB equation (10). A state two-design is a finite family of rank-one projectors whose average second tensor power is the projector onto the symmetric subspace with the normalization in Lemma D.1. The projectors give an explicit measurement with distortion at most dB2(dB+1)d_B^2(d_B+1)dB2​(dB​+1).

Formalization targets

The principal target is the explicit form of Theorem 2.5. For 1≤k≤n1\le k\le n1≤k≤n, put r=n−kr=n-kr=n−k. With the two-design measurement, some m∈{0,…,r}m\in\{0,\ldots,r\}m∈{0,…,r} satisfies

Ei⃗,j⃗,z∥ρi⃗∣z−⨂s=1kρis∣z∥1≤kdB2(dB+1)(2ln⁡2)(k−1)log⁡2dBr+1≤3k3/2dB3log⁡2dBr+1.\mathbb E_{\vec i,\vec j,z}\left\|\rho_{\vec i\mid z}-\bigotimes_{s=1}^k\rho_{i_s\mid z}\right\|_1 \le k d_B^2(d_B+1)\sqrt{\frac{(2\ln 2)(k-1)\log_2 d_B}{r+1}} \le \frac{3k^{3/2}d_B^3\log_2 d_B}{\sqrt{r+1}}.Ei,j​,z​​ρi∣z​−s=1⨂k​ρis​∣z​​1​≤kdB2​(dB​+1)r+1(2ln2)(k−1)log2​dB​​​≤r+1​3k3/2dB3​log2​dB​​.

Here the zzz in the expectation is the outcome string for the first mmm members of j⃗\vec jj​. The same mmm is chosen before taking that expectation. This rate is stated with its constants and its two consecutive inequalities; an existence assertion without the error bound would lose the theorem's content.

The milestone path also states the telescoping trace-norm inequality of equation (12), the measurement estimate of Lemma D.1, and the final averaged inequality on p. 11. A companion milestone treats any fixed POVM with its own distortion. That formulation captures the proof's arbitrary-measurement step without treating the infimum f(B∣⋅)f(B\mid\cdot)f(B∣⋅) as if every measurement attained it.

Significance

For an arbitrary multipartite state, random ordering and conditioning give one measured prefix length at which the selected registers have small expected distance from a product. The explicit rate is polynomial in dBd_BdB​ and kkk and decays as 1/n−k+11/\sqrt{n-k+1}1/n−k+1​. It therefore gives a quantitative approximation guarantee under a selection rule that can be applied without first establishing exchangeability Berta et al., §2.6.

The theorem is proved in the paper; the work here is to express its state, measurement, conditional distribution, and norm bound in Lean and to connect the estimate to reusable finite-dimensional quantum-information definitions. The local statements are currently proof obligations, not machine-checked proofs. The published density-operator, trace-norm, and partial-trace definitions are reused. Once proved, the statements can serve as a precise interface for subsequent formal work on randomized subsystem selection and information-theoretic decoupling.

Difficulty

Randomly choosing systems does not turn the original state into a product state. A direct bound on the distance to a product can be large even when each one-system marginal is simple, because correlations among the retained systems remain. Equation (12) breaks the total error into successive correlation terms; the paper controls their average by measuring other systems and using information-theoretic estimates. A second difficulty is that a measurement can erase distinctions between different input operators. The two-design estimate supplies a dimension-dependent bound on that loss, uniformly over the size of a side system.

The printed theorem leaves the measurement MBM_BMB​ unspecified while using the minimum distortion over all measurements. A trivial measurement cannot satisfy that reading. The proof explicitly permits the measurement built from a state two-design, with dB2(dB+1)d_B^2(d_B+1)dB2​(dB​+1) replacing f(B∣⋅)f(B\mid\cdot)f(B∣⋅); that is the measurement used in the goal proof of Theorem 2.5, p. 10.

Formalization scope

The BBB system has basis Fin dB; nnn copies have basis Fin n → Fin dB. The formalization writes n=k+rn=k+rn=k+r, assumes k≥1k\ge1k≥1, and ranges over m≤rm\le rm≤r. A state is a positive semidefinite complex matrix with trace one. Permutations act on the copy coordinates, and their finite uniform average models the paper's random ordered tuples. Measurement outcomes are finite words; the conditional state divides the unnormalized post-measurement state by its probability. A zero-probability outcome uses Lean's zero inverse and contributes zero to the weighted expectation. The existence of a state and of a nonempty two-design rules out zero-dimensional and empty-outcome instances in the goal.

The fixed-measurement distortion and f(B∣⋅)f(B\mid\cdot)f(B∣⋅) take values in extended nonnegative reals, so a measurement that destroys a nonzero operator has infinite distortion. The logarithm is base two except for ln⁡2\ln 2ln2. The definitions use the paper's unnormalized trace norm, with no factor 1/21/21/2. No mutual-information estimate or Pinsker inequality is assumed in the goal: both belong to possible proofs. Contributions proving the stated milestones, the positivity and normalization of the conditional states, or reusable trace-norm facts for finite tensor products all advance the target.

Selected references

  • M. Berta, F. Borderi, O. Fawzi and V. B. Scholz, Semidefinite programming hierarchies for constrained bilinear optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2021; arXiv:1810.12197v3.
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Optimization·Captain: visuddhi

VC Theory for Inventory Policies: Xie–Ma–Xin BoundsResearch Paper

Learning inventory policies from historical demand

An inventory policy chooses how much stock to order before demand is observed. Its quality is assessed by the holding and backlogging costs it incurs on future demand. A policy chosen to perform well on historical demand can overfit those observations. A useful statistical guarantee therefore controls the difference between historical and future costs simultaneously over the policies that the procedure may select. Xie, Ma and Xin establish such guarantees for stationary base-stock, (s,S)(s,S)(s,S), and nonstationary base-stock policy classes.

This formalization covers the principal bound families in that paper. Its first goal is the expected generalization and estimation bound for nonstationary base-stock policies with no fixed ordering cost, Corollary 4.10. Its supporting targets include Theorem 4.9 and the constructive product-sample partition in Lemma 4.12. The other principal bounds remain in the explicit scope below and await their own full Lean declarations. The companion inventory-information project needs these results as proved dependencies; merely citing the paper does not close that project's formal proof obligations.

Demand, policy classes and statistical errors

There are T+LT+LT+L periods, a deterministic lead time L≥0L\ge0L≥0, and demand bounded by U>0U>0U>0. The first order arrives in period L+1L+1L+1. Average loss means the sum of holding and backlogging costs in periods L+1,…,T+LL+1,\ldots,T+LL+1,…,T+L, divided by the positive horizon TTT. The initial pipeline is empty, and initial inventory is nonpositive for the base-stock models. Holding and backlogging cost coefficients are h,b∈[0,1]h,b\in[0,1]h,b∈[0,1]. Nonstationary base-stock policies in the first goal have no fixed ordering cost and use levels St∈[0,(L+1)U]S^t\in[0,(L+1)U]St∈[0,(L+1)U].

The Lean model indexes the first period by zero. It uses the source's explicit finite-maximum formula for post-replenishment inventory, with the demand interval summed up to, but excluding, the observation period. In mathematical notation the inventory in period L+k+1L+k+1L+k+1 is max⁡0≤j≤k(Sj−∑j≤r<k+Ldr)\max_{0\le j\le k}(S_j-\sum_{j\le r<k+L}d_r)max0≤j≤k​(Sj​−∑j≤r<k+L​dr​). Cost is evaluated after subtracting the current demand dL+kd_{L+k}dL+k​. This is a backlog model; applications to lost sales require a separate equivalence argument.

Data comprise N>0N>0N>0 IID demand trajectories from a probability measure μ\muμ on the bounded trajectory space. Different periods of the same trajectory can be dependent. Generalization error is the one-sided supremum GE=sup⁡S(R(S)−R^(S))\mathrm{GE}=\sup_S(R(S)-\widehat R(S))GE=supS​(R(S)−R(S)), where RRR is expected average loss and R^\widehat RR is empirical average loss. Estimation error is R(S^)−R(S∗)R(\widehat S)-R(S_*)R(S)−R(S∗​), for an empirical minimizer and a best-in-class population policy. It is not the error relative to every history-dependent inventory policy. These conventions follow Sections 3 and 4.

Formalization targets

The first goal, Corollary 4.10, asserts the existence of one absolute constant C>0C>0C>0 such that

EEE≤EGE≤C(L+1)U/N.\mathbb E\mathrm{EE}\le\mathbb E\mathrm{GE}\le C(L+1)U/\sqrt N.EEE≤EGE≤C(L+1)U/N​.

The constant is quantified before the horizon, lead time, support, costs, demand distribution, sample size, and policy selections. The first inequality explicitly refers to actual minimizers, with an integrable selected risk. The GE conclusion holds independently of whether a particular selector has been supplied.

Its principal complexity target is Theorem 4.9: for each relevant period and 0<γ≤10<\gamma\le10<γ≤1, the normalized inventory class has fat-shattering dimension at most 2/γ+12/\gamma+12/γ+1. The Lean statement says directly that every γ\gammaγ-shattered indexed sample has cardinality at most that number. It uses the source convention of a strict upper label and non-strict lower label.

Lemma 4.12 partitions all NDN^DND product indices into ND−1N^{D-1}ND−1 groups of NNN indices. Every coordinate of every group traverses the original row indices exactly once. The formal statement uses a bijection between anchor-offset pairs and complete index tuples, together with a coordinate-permutation assertion. The dimension D=d+1D=d+1D=d+1 is positive, and N=1N=1N=1 and D=1D=1D=1 are included.

The full scope also retains Theorem 4.1 and Corollary 4.2 (stationary policies), Theorem 4.4 and Corollary 4.5 ((s,S)(s,S)(s,S) upper bounds), Theorem 4.7 and Corollary 4.8 ((s,S)(s,S)(s,S) fat-shattering and GE lower bounds), and the expected Product ERM comparison in equation (4.7). They are catalogued with their assumptions but are not yet all encoded. The GE lower bound is not asserted to be a minimax policy-regret lower bound.

What the formalization supplies

The nonstationary policy vector grows with the horizon, while the expected average-loss bound has no horizon factor. A verified version supplies a reusable statistical ingredient for finite-horizon inventory learning. Total-cost bounds require multiplication by the horizon. Absolute uniform deviation, period-dependent costs, high-probability statements, initial-state reductions, and censoring require further bridge theorems. They are not attributed to Corollary 4.10 without those proofs.

The cyclic partition has a complete locally checked Lean proof with axiom dependencies only propext and Quot.sound. The two statistical targets remain open. Neither a drafted declaration nor a local proof is described as a server-verified contribution.

Mathematical difficulty

Ordinary pseudodimension can grow with the horizon for the nonstationary class, so it does not by itself give the desired horizon-free rate. A full proof needs scale-sensitive complexity, probability, and integration infrastructure. For Product ERM, coordinate independence must be explicit: the groups in the partition need not be independent of each other. The expected comparison transfers upper bounds; it cannot reverse direction to transfer a GE lower bound.

Formalization scope and conventions

The shared environment is Lean 4.33.1 and Mathlib revision 0df444a360eaa60ab8c11dca51a86af692955474. Demand and policy coordinates are bounded real subtypes with their usual measurable structures. Probability is over IID whole trajectories. Finite maximum indices are nonempty. Positive T,N,UT,N,UT,N,U prevent zero denominators in the targets. General definitions remain total, and their behavior outside these hypotheses is exposed in the independent read-backs.

Complete proofs must establish the boundedness and measurability needed for the real suprema and integrals to have their usual meaning. They may not assume the convergence bound, replace arbitrary probability measures by finite-support distributions, or silently restrict the policy class. The (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) branch additionally needs explicit unbounded-domain conventions when holding or backlogging costs vanish. Reusable contributions include shattering, symmetrization, entropy bounds, selection and integrability facts, and finite-product sampling.

Selected references

  • Yaqi Xie, Will Ma and Linwei Xin, VC Theory for Inventory Policies, arXiv:2404.11509v3, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.11509v3
  • Hanzhang Qin, David Simchi-Levi and Ruihao Zhu, Information Limits of Multistage Inventory Control: Learning, Valuation, and Censoring, arXiv:2609.37380v1, 2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.37380v1
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals I: Under Random Arrival Order, Nonadaptive Thresholds Earn a 1 − 1/e Fraction of E[max Xᵢ]Research Paper

Motivation

In a prophet inequality, a gambler sees prizes one at a time and must decide when to stop, while a prophet knows every realization and takes the largest. A stopping guarantee compares the gambler’s expected prize with the prophet’s. The order of arrival changes the problem: here the prizes are independent but can have different distributions, and every permutation of their arrival is equally likely. Before seeing any prize, the gambler chooses a threshold for each distribution and accepts the first prize above its threshold. Such a rule has no need to update thresholds after observing rejections. Correa, Foncea, Hoeksma, Oosterwijk, and Vredeveld prove that this restricted rule still earns at least a 1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e fraction of the prophet’s expected maximum (Theorem 1, pp. 1455, 1459).

The random-arrival stopping model also supplies guarantees for posted-price mechanisms. A posted price gives a buyer a take-it-or-leave-it offer; the first buyer who accepts ends the sale. The paper explains the connection between its stopping rules and expected revenue under random buyer arrival (§1.1 and §5). This mission formalizes the stopping theorem itself, which is the mathematical guarantee used before that economic translation.

Setting

Let n≥1n\ge1n≥1, and let X1,…,XnX_1,\ldots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be independent, nonnegative real random variables with known, possibly different distributions. Their realizations arrive in a uniformly random order. A nonadaptive threshold rule chooses constants τi∈[0,∞]\tau_i\in[0,\infty]τi​∈[0,∞] before any realization is observed. It accepts the first arriving index iii with Xi>τiX_i>\tau_iXi​>τi​ and receives XiX_iXi​. If no prize crosses its threshold, its reward is zero. An infinite threshold deliberately excludes an index. The strict comparison matches Theorem 1, even though an earlier description in §1.2 uses a weak comparison (pp. 1454–1455).

For fixed realized prizes, write Yi=1{Xi>τi}Y_i=\mathbf1_{\{X_i>\tau_i\}}Yi​=1{Xi​>τi​}​. Conditional on the set of indices with Yi=1Y_i=1Yi​=1, each accepted index is equally likely to arrive first. The conditional expected reward is therefore

Rτ(X)=∑i=1nXiYi∑i=1nYi,0/0:=0.R_\tau(X)=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}X_iY_i}{\sum_{i=1}^{n}Y_i},\qquad 0/0:=0.Rτ​(X)=∑i=1n​Yi​∑i=1n​Xi​Yi​​,0/0:=0.

The prophet benchmark is X∗=max⁡iXiX^*=\max_i X_iX∗=maxi​Xi​. The theorem compares ERτ(X)\mathbb E R_\tau(X)ERτ​(X) with EX∗\mathbb E X^*EX∗, including distributions for which either expectation may be infinite. The variables need no common distribution and no atomlessness assumption.

The paper’s main supporting result is the Bernoulli Selection Lemma. It starts with independent Bernoulli indicators YiY_iYi​ of success probabilities qiq_iqi​, fixed real prizes bib_ibi​, and a chosen subset SSS. Its payoff is the average ∑i∈SbiYi/∑i∈SYi\sum_{i\in S}b_iY_i/\sum_{i\in S}Y_i∑i∈S​bi​Yi​/∑i∈S​Yi​, again zero when the denominator vanishes. The lemma compares the best subset with a finite linear optimization problem over 0≤zi≤qi0\le z_i\le q_i0≤zi​≤qi​ and ∑izi≤1\sum_i z_i\le1∑i​zi​≤1 (Lemma 1, p. 1455).

Formalization targets

Nonadaptive threshold guarantee

The goal is the exact constant of Theorem 1:

∃τ∈[0,∞]n:ERτ(X) ≥ (1−e−1) EX∗.\exists\tau\in[0,\infty]^n:\quad \mathbb E R_\tau(X)\ \ge\ (1-e^{-1})\,\mathbb E X^*.∃τ∈[0,∞]n:ERτ​(X) ≥ (1−e−1)EX∗.

The quantifiers range over every finite nonempty family of independent nonnegative variables. The thresholds are deterministic and indexed by the distributions, and the assertion covers atoms as well as continuous laws. This is the paper’s headline nonadaptive result (Theorem 1, p. 1459).

Bernoulli selection and comparison steps

The milestone list includes the paper’s multilinear formulation (4), its substitution (5), Proposition A.1, Lemmas 2 and 3, and the Bernoulli Selection Lemma. The latter states, in particular, that the maximum expected selected average dominates (1−e−1)(1-e^{-1})(1−e−1) times the optimum over feasible zzz. Two further milestones express the decomposition of the expected maximum and the upper-tail comparison used for continuous distributions (§2–3 and Appendix A). These targets fix the finite selection problem and the probabilistic quantities that the goal must connect.

Significance

The guarantee identifies what fixed, distribution-specific thresholds can achieve under random arrival: the expected accepted prize reaches a constant fraction of the prophet’s benchmark for every collection of independent nonnegative distributions. The paper also gives examples showing why a rule that keeps every positive prize is inadequate and studies where the 1−e−11-e^{-1}1−e−1 factor is tight (§2.1 and §3.1). These are claims about the performance of a restricted class of stopping rules, not about an optimal adaptive strategy.

The paper proves Theorem 1; a machine-checked proof of this mission’s goal remains to be supplied. The finite Bernoulli model, its subset optimum, and the nonnegative expectation conventions would be reusable for other random-order stopping and allocation results. This mission makes the paper’s claimed constants, event comparisons, and boundary cases explicit in the theorem statements so a later proof has a fixed target.

Difficulty

Taking the first value above a single low threshold can accept a modest prize before a rare large one arrives. Raising every threshold can instead reject too many prizes. The paper’s example with a constant prize and a rare large prize shows that accepting all available values does not meet the claimed factor (p. 1460). The difficulty is obtaining one set of fixed thresholds that balances those risks across different distributions, while the benchmark selects the largest realization after seeing them all. The Bernoulli selection inequality carries the sharp constant; connecting it to general distributions must also account for ties and atoms.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the index set by Fin n with n≥1n\ge1n≥1, so its index zero is the paper’s index one. The existing published definition SamuelCahnProphet.Median.Setting.maxX supplies the sample maximum; this mission defines the strict accepted set and its real-valued reward ratio. Thresholds live in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] because the paper explicitly uses ∞\infty∞ to exclude a variable. Expectations are nonnegative extended integrals of ENNReal.ofReal, preserving infinite values and avoiding a default zero for nonintegrable real integrals. The source’s nonnegativity assumption is represented almost surely, which is enough for these expectations and does not restrict the distributions further.

The Bernoulli law is a finite product formula. Its probabilities lie in [0,1][0,1][0,1], while prizes are arbitrary real numbers as in the printed lemma. The feasibility condition includes zi≥0z_i\ge0zi​≥0: these variables are probabilities, and allowing negative values would change the optimization problem. The finite subset optimum is an attained maximum. Proposition A.1 is stated for M≠∅M\ne\varnothingM=∅; an empty MMM contradicts the budget conclusion for a>0a>0a>0. It also includes the printed a=0a=0a=0 case. Lemma 2 includes y=1y=1y=1 as printed: the removable division by zero in (6) is assigned its continuous value 2/e2/e2/e. The comparison milestones for continuous distributions assume atomlessness explicitly; the goal does not.

The accepted set depends only on fixed thresholds and the realized values. It cannot depend on the sampled arrival order or on prior observations. A constant choice such as accepting every positive prize does not prove the target guarantee. Contributions that establish the finite Bernoulli selection result, its analytic bounds, the random-order reward identity, or the passage from continuous to arbitrary distributions all serve the stated goal. The random-order identity and the discontinuous case are further work beyond the current milestone list.

Selected references

  • José Correa, Patricio Foncea, Ruben Hoeksma, Tim Oosterwijk, and Tjark Vredeveld, Posted Price Mechanisms and Optimal Threshold Strategies for Random Arrivals, Mathematics of Operations Research 46(4), 1452–1478, 2021. DOI: 10.1287/moor.2020.1105.
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Markov ChainStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Generalized Couplings and Ergodic Rates for SPDEs and Other Markov Models: A Generalized Coupling and a Lyapunov Function Give a Unique Invariant Measure and Wasserstein Ergodic RatesResearch Paper

Motivation

Many Markov processes that arise as solutions of stochastic partial differential equations, stochastic delay equations, or other infinite-dimensional models are not strong Feller: their transition probabilities from two nearby starting points can be mutually singular. For such processes convergence to equilibrium cannot hold in total variation, and the classical Harris theorem (a Lyapunov function plus a minorization on a small set) does not apply. Hairer, Mattingly and Scheutzow ([23], 2011) replaced total variation by a coupling distance WdW_dWd​ built from a suitable distance-like function ddd, and proved a weak Harris theorem: contraction of WdW_dWd​ on the whole space, ddd-smallness of the level sets of a Lyapunov function, and the Lyapunov drift together give a unique invariant measure and a rate of convergence. Butkovsky ([6], 2014) extended it to subgeometric rates, and Kulik's monograph ([25], 2017) gives a systematic account.

The remaining difficulty is to verify the contraction hypothesis for a concrete model. Butkovsky, Kulik and Scheutzow (arXiv:1806.00395, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2020) show that it suffices to build a generalized coupling: a pair of processes whose first component has the correct law, whose second component is only close in law to the process started at the other point, and whose components approach each other. Their abstract theorem of §2 is the input to the paper's applications to stochastic functional differential equations and to the 2D Navier–Stokes, Euler-type and Boussinesq SPDEs of §4.

Setting

Let (E,ρ)(E,\rho)(E,ρ) be a Polish space with Borel σ\sigmaσ-field E\mathcal EE, and let {Pt}t≥0\{P_t\}_{t\ge0}{Pt​}t≥0​ be a Markov transition function: Markov kernels with P0(x,⋅)=δxP_0(x,\cdot)=\delta_xP0​(x,⋅)=δx​ and the Chapman–Kolmogorov identity. Write Ptf(x)=∫f(y) Pt(x,dy)P_tf(x)=\int f(y)\,P_t(x,dy)Pt​f(x)=∫f(y)Pt​(x,dy). The semigroup is Feller if PtP_tPt​ maps bounded continuous functions to continuous functions.

A distance-like function d:E×E→R+d:E\times E\to\mathbb R_+d:E×E→R+​ is symmetric, lower semicontinuous and vanishes exactly on the diagonal. A premetric θ\thetaθ is lower semicontinuous and vanishes exactly on the diagonal, but need not be symmetric. For probability measures μ,ν\mu,\nuμ,ν, C(μ,ν)\mathcal C(\mu,\nu)C(μ,ν) is the set of couplings and

Wd(μ,ν)=inf⁡λ∈C(μ,ν)∫d dλ∈[0,∞].W_d(\mu,\nu)=\inf_{\lambda\in\mathcal C(\mu,\nu)}\int d\,d\lambda\in[0,\infty].Wd​(μ,ν)=λ∈C(μ,ν)inf​∫ddλ∈[0,∞].

dTV(μ,ν)=sup⁡A∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣d_{TV}(\mu,\nu)=\sup_{A}|\mu(A)-\nu(A)|dTV​(μ,ν)=supA​∣μ(A)−ν(A)∣ is the total variation distance.

A measurable V≥0V\ge0V≥0 satisfies the Lyapunov condition if, for a concave differentiable φ:R+→R+\varphi:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+φ:R+​→R+​ increasing to infinity with φ(0)=0\varphi(0)=0φ(0)=0 and a constant K>0K>0K>0,

PtV(x)≤V(x)−∫0tPs(φ∘V)(x) ds+Kt,t≥0, x∈E.P_tV(x)\le V(x)-\int_0^tP_s(\varphi\circ V)(x)\,ds+Kt,\qquad t\ge0,\ x\in E.Pt​V(x)≤V(x)−∫0t​Ps​(φ∘V)(x)ds+Kt,t≥0, x∈E.

Put Hφ(x)=∫1xdu/φ(u)H_\varphi(x)=\int_1^x du/\varphi(u)Hφ​(x)=∫1x​du/φ(u) for x≥1x\ge1x≥1.

Assumption A asks for a non-increasing rrr with r(t)→0r(t)\to0r(t)→0, a locally bounded LLL, and for every x,yx,yx,y a pair of processes (Xx,y,Yx,y)(X^{x,y},Y^{x,y})(Xx,y,Yx,y) with Law(Xx,y)=Px\mathrm{Law}(X^{x,y})=\mathsf P_xLaw(Xx,y)=Px​,

dTV(Law(Ytx,y),Pt(y,⋅))≤L(t)θ(x,y),E θ(Xtx,y,Ytx,y)≤r(t)θ(x,y).d_{TV}\bigl(\mathrm{Law}(Y^{x,y}_t),P_t(y,\cdot)\bigr)\le L(t)\theta(x,y),\qquad \mathsf E\,\theta(X^{x,y}_t,Y^{x,y}_t)\le r(t)\theta(x,y).dTV​(Law(Ytx,y​),Pt​(y,⋅))≤L(t)θ(x,y),Eθ(Xtx,y​,Ytx,y​)≤r(t)θ(x,y).

Assumption B1 for a set BBB and t0>0t_0>0t0​>0: for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 there is a set DDD with inf⁡x∈BPt0(x,D)>0\inf_{x\in B}P_{t_0}(x,D)>0infx∈B​Pt0​​(x,D)>0 and sup⁡x,y∈Dθ(x,y)≤ε\sup_{x,y\in D}\theta(x,y)\le\varepsilonsupx,y∈D​θ(x,y)≤ε. Assumption B2 is a generalized-coupling version of B1 on a set BBB. The paper's auxiliary distance is dN=Nθ(x,y)∧Nθ(y,x)∧1d_N=N\theta(x,y)\wedge N\theta(y,x)\wedge1dN​=Nθ(x,y)∧Nθ(y,x)∧1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.5

Assume PPP is Feller, VVV satisfies the Lyapunov condition, ρ∧1≤θ\rho\wedge1\le\thetaρ∧1≤θ, Assumption A holds, and there is t0>0t_0>0t0​>0 such that B1 holds for every level set {V≤M}\{V\le M\}{V≤M} and t0t_0t0​. Then (Pt)(P_t)(Pt​) has a unique invariant probability measure π\piπ, and for every δ∈(0,1)\delta\in(0,1)δ∈(0,1) there are C1,C2>0C_1,C_2>0C1​,C2​>0 with

Wρ∧1(Pt(x,⋅),π)≤C1(1+φ(V(x))δ)φ(Hφ−1(C2t))δ,x∈E, t≥0.W_{\rho\wedge1}(P_t(x,\cdot),\pi)\le\frac{C_1\bigl(1+\varphi(V(x))^\delta\bigr)}{\varphi\bigl(H_\varphi^{-1}(C_2t)\bigr)^\delta},\qquad x\in E,\ t\ge0.Wρ∧1​(Pt​(x,⋅),π)≤φ(Hφ−1​(C2​t))δC1​(1+φ(V(x))δ)​,x∈E, t≥0.

The constants are existential, so the goal survives any improvement of them.

Companion: Theorem 2.6

In the exponential case φ(x)=γx\varphi(x)=\gamma xφ(x)=γx, hypothesis B1 on all level sets may be replaced by B2 on the single level set {V≤4K/γ}\{V\le4K/\gamma\}{V≤4K/γ}; the same bound then holds and is exponential in ttt.

Milestones

In attack order: dNd_NdN​ is distance-like (2.6); the coupling lemma, the gluing lemma and the reimbursement bound used inside the proof of Theorem 2.3(i); Theorem 2.3(i) (contractivity of dNd_NdN​ under A) and (ii) (dNd_NdN​-smallness under B1); the remark after Definition 2.2 that contractivity and smallness give (2.3)–(2.4); the non-expansion step of the proof of Theorem 2.5; Proposition 2.1 (cited weak Harris theorem); and, for the companion, Theorem 2.3(iii), Proposition 2.2 (cited) and Theorem 2.6.

Significance

Theorem 2.5 turns the verification of the weak Harris theorem into two checks that can be carried out model by model: construct a controlled process that is close in law to the true one (Assumption A), and check a support condition on level sets (B1). It covers subexponential rates, given by the function φ\varphiφ of the Lyapunov drift, and the Wasserstein distance it controls metrizes weak convergence. Theorem 2.6 is the abstract result behind the exponential ergodicity statements for SPDEs in §4 of the paper.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, nor the weak Harris theorems of [6] and [23] they rely on, has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has Markov kernels, their composition and invariant measures, but no coupling distances for lower semicontinuous costs, no maximal coupling or gluing lemma on Polish spaces, and no weak Harris theorem. Propositions 2.1 and 2.2 are cited by the paper, not proved there; formalizing them is part of the mission.

Difficulty

The obvious route to contraction is a true coupling of Pt(x,⋅)P_t(x,\cdot)Pt​(x,⋅) and Pt(y,⋅)P_t(y,\cdot)Pt​(y,⋅) whose components meet or approach. For processes without the strong Feller property, such a coupling is generally not available explicitly; the generalized coupling only gives the second marginal up to a total variation error. Turning the error-in-law bound into a statement about WdNW_{d_N}WdN​​ needs a maximal coupling of two laws on a Polish space and a gluing of two couplings along a common marginal, both of which rest on disintegration of measures. The cited Proposition 2.1 is itself a substantial result: existence of an invariant measure needs tightness from the Lyapunov drift and the Feller property, and the subexponential rate needs a careful interpolation between the drift and the contraction.

Formalization scope

The state space is any type with MetricSpace, CompleteSpace, SeparableSpace and the Borel σ-algebra; ρ\rhoρ is dist. Time is ℝ≥0 and PPP is a map ℝ≥0 → Kernel E E with Markov kernels, P0=idP_0=\mathrm{id}P0​=id, Chapman–Kolmogorov, and measurability of s↦Ps(x,A)s\mapsto P_s(x,A)s↦Ps​(x,A), which the time integral in (2.2) presupposes. Expectations, PtVP_tVPt​V and WdW_dWd​ are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and (2.2) is stated without subtraction (PtV+∫0tPs(φ∘V) ds≤V+KtP_tV+\int_0^tP_s(\varphi\circ V)\,ds\le V+KtPt​V+∫0t​Ps​(φ∘V)ds≤V+Kt), which is equivalent. A pair of processes is represented by its joint law on path space; Law(Xx,y)=Px\mathrm{Law}(X^{x,y})=\mathsf P_xLaw(Xx,y)=Px​ is read through the one-dimensional marginals Law(Xtx,y)=Pt(x,⋅)\mathrm{Law}(X^{x,y}_t)=P_t(x,\cdot)Law(Xtx,y​)=Pt​(x,⋅), a weaker hypothesis. Total variation is the published MarkovChainCLT.tvDist, without a factor 2. "Unique invariant measure" means unique among probability measures, with invariance ∫Pt(x,⋅) π(dx)=π\int P_t(x,\cdot)\,\pi(dx)=\pi∫Pt​(x,⋅)π(dx)=π for every ttt. Hφ−1(C2t)H_\varphi^{-1}(C_2t)Hφ−1​(C2​t) is encoded by quantifying over every u≥1u\ge1u≥1 with Hφ(u)=C2tH_\varphi(u)=C_2tHφ​(u)=C2​t; such a uuu exists and is unique under the Lyapunov condition. In Proposition 2.1 condition 2 is stated as ρ∧1≤d\rho\wedge1\le dρ∧1≤d, which is Proposition 2.1 for the equivalent complete metric ρ∧1\rho\wedge1ρ∧1 and is the form the proof of Theorem 2.5 uses.

No statement relies on a junk value: no Bochner integral of a possibly non-integrable function, no real-valued infimum over a possibly empty or unbounded set, no Measure.map along a non-measurable map, no default-valued inverse of HφH_\varphiHφ​ (which would make the bound read W≤0W\le0W≤0), and "invariant" is never used without "probability".

A complete development needs: Kantorovich-type coupling distances for lower semicontinuous costs, maximal couplings and gluing on Polish spaces, the transfer of WdW_dWd​-bounds through Markov kernels, and the weak Harris theorem with subexponential rates. All of these are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, including the cited Propositions 2.1 and 2.2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • O. Butkovsky, A. Kulik, M. Scheutzow, Generalized couplings and ergodic rates for SPDEs and other Markov models, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(1), 2020. arXiv:1806.00395, doi:10.1214/19-AAP1485
  • M. Hairer, J. C. Mattingly, M. Scheutzow, Asymptotic coupling and a general form of Harris' theorem with applications to stochastic delay equations, Probab. Theory Related Fields 149, 2011. arXiv:0902.4495
  • O. Butkovsky, Subgeometric rates of convergence of Markov processes in the Wasserstein metric, Ann. Appl. Probab. 24(2), 2014. arXiv:1211.4273
  • A. Kulik, Ergodic Behavior of Markov Processes, De Gruyter, Berlin, 2017. doi:10.1515/9783110458930
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009 (coupling lemma, Theorem 4.1; gluing, p. 23). doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Markov ChainOptimal Transport·Captain: mikedeng1

Coupling and Convergence for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo 2: Lyapunov Bounds and Local Contractivity Give W_ρ(νπⁿ, ηπⁿ) ≤ e^{−cn}W_ρ(ν, η) + βⁿλⁿ⁻¹(∫ψdν + ∫ψdη)δ(C)Research Paper

Motivation

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods approximate a target probability measure by the law after nnn steps of a Markov chain. A quantitative guarantee for such a method is a bound on the distance between the law after nnn steps and the target, or between the laws of two copies of the chain started from different initial distributions. A standard route to such bounds is contractivity in a Kantorovich (Wasserstein) distance: if one step of the chain contracts the distance between any two initial laws by a factor e−c<1e^{-c}<1e−c<1, the laws converge geometrically.

For many chains of practical interest, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with a numerical integrator, contractivity can only be proved on a bounded region of the state space. Outside it, the integrator may be unstable, or the coupling used to prove contraction may fail. Bou-Rabee, Eberle and Zimmer (arXiv:1805.00452, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020) isolate a general principle that turns such local contractivity into a global distance bound. It requires two Lyapunov functions: one controls how quickly the chain can leave the region of contraction, and one controls the distance once it has left. The principle is their Theorem 2.11. It is stated for an arbitrary Markov kernel on a complete separable metric space, and they apply it to adjusted numerical HMC (their Theorem 2.12).

Setting

Let (S,ρ)(S,\rho)(S,ρ) be a complete separable metric space with Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra B(S)\mathcal B(S)B(S), and let π(x,dy)\pi(x,dy)π(x,dy) be a Markov transition kernel on SSS. For a probability measure ν\nuν, the law after nnn steps is νπn\nu\pi^nνπn, where π0(x,⋅)=δx\pi^0(x,\cdot)=\delta_xπ0(x,⋅)=δx​ and πn+1=ππn\pi^{n+1}=\pi\pi^nπn+1=ππn. For a non-negative function fff, (πf)(x)=∫f(y) π(x,dy)(\pi f)(x)=\int f(y)\,\pi(x,dy)(πf)(x)=∫f(y)π(x,dy).

A coupling of probability measures ν,η\nu,\etaν,η on SSS is a probability measure on S×SS\times SS×S with marginals ν\nuν and η\etaη; C(ν,η)C(\nu,\eta)C(ν,η) is the set of couplings. The Kantorovich distance is

Wρ(ν,η)=inf⁡γ∈C(ν,η)∫ρ(x,y) γ(dx dy)∈[0,∞].\mathcal W_\rho(\nu,\eta)=\inf_{\gamma\in C(\nu,\eta)}\int\rho(x,y)\,\gamma(dx\,dy)\in[0,\infty].Wρ​(ν,η)=γ∈C(ν,η)inf​∫ρ(x,y)γ(dxdy)∈[0,∞].

Assumption 2.3 asks for a constant C∈(0,∞)C\in(0,\infty)C∈(0,∞) and measurable functions ψ,φ:S→(0,∞)\psi,\varphi:S\to(0,\infty)ψ,φ:S→(0,∞) such that:

  • (C1) main Lyapunov condition: for some λ∈[1,∞)\lambda\in[1,\infty)λ∈[1,∞), (πψ)(x)≤λψ(x)(\pi\psi)(x)\le\lambda\psi(x)(πψ)(x)≤λψ(x) whenever ψ(x)≤C\psi(x)\le Cψ(x)≤C;
  • (C2) global Lyapunov condition: for some β∈[1,∞)\beta\in[1,\infty)β∈[1,∞), (πφ)(x)≤βφ(x)(\pi\varphi)(x)\le\beta\varphi(x)(πφ)(x)≤βφ(x) and ρ(x,y)≤φ(x)+φ(y)\rho(x,y)\le\varphi(x)+\varphi(y)ρ(x,y)≤φ(x)+φ(y) for all x,yx,yx,y;
  • (C3) local contractivity: there are a probability space (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P), a constant c∈(0,∞)c\in(0,\infty)c∈(0,∞) and a measurable map (X′,Y′):S×S×Ω→S×S(X',Y'):S\times S\times\Omega\to S\times S(X′,Y′):S×S×Ω→S×S. For every x,yx,yx,y, the pair (X′(x,y,⋅),Y′(x,y,⋅))(X'(x,y,\cdot),Y'(x,y,\cdot))(X′(x,y,⋅),Y′(x,y,⋅)) is a coupling of π(x,⋅)\pi(x,\cdot)π(x,⋅) and π(y,⋅)\pi(y,\cdot)π(y,⋅), and E[ρ(X′(x,y,⋅),Y′(x,y,⋅))]≤e−cρ(x,y)E[\rho(X'(x,y,\cdot),Y'(x,y,\cdot))]\le e^{-c}\rho(x,y)E[ρ(X′(x,y,⋅),Y′(x,y,⋅))]≤e−cρ(x,y) whenever ψ(x)≤C\psi(x)\le Cψ(x)≤C and ψ(y)≤C\psi(y)\le Cψ(y)≤C.

Finally,

δ(C)=sup⁡{φ(x)+φ(y)ψ(x)+ψ(y):x,y∈S, ψ(x)>C or ψ(y)>C}∈[0,∞].\delta(C)=\sup\Big\{\frac{\varphi(x)+\varphi(y)}{\psi(x)+\psi(y)}:x,y\in S,\ \psi(x)>C\text{ or }\psi(y)>C\Big\}\in[0,\infty].δ(C)=sup{ψ(x)+ψ(y)φ(x)+φ(y)​:x,y∈S, ψ(x)>C or ψ(y)>C}∈[0,∞].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.11

Under Assumption 2.3, for every n∈Nn\in\mathbb Nn∈N and all probability measures ν,η\nu,\etaν,η on (S,B(S))(S,\mathcal B(S))(S,B(S)),

Wρ(νπn,ηπn)≤e−cnWρ(ν,η)+βnλn−1(∫ψ dν+∫ψ dη)δ(C).(42)\mathcal W_\rho(\nu\pi^n,\eta\pi^n)\le e^{-cn}\mathcal W_\rho(\nu,\eta)+\beta^n\lambda^{n-1}\Big(\int\psi\,d\nu+\int\psi\,d\eta\Big)\delta(C).\tag{42}Wρ​(νπn,ηπn)≤e−cnWρ​(ν,η)+βnλn−1(∫ψdν+∫ψdη)δ(C).(42)

The constants are those of the paper and are not weakened. Each quantity may be infinite, and the bound is read in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].

Milestones

  1. Lemma 6.1. If a measurable coupling contracts ρ\rhoρ by e−ce^{-c}e−c in one step from every pair in A×AA\times AA×A, then for every initial coupling γ\gammaγ there is a coupled Markov chain (Xn,Yn)(X_n,Y_n)(Xn​,Yn​) with (X0,Y0)∼γ(X_0,Y_0)\sim\gamma(X0​,Y0​)∼γ and both marginals Markov with kernel π\piπ. Along this chain, Mn=ec(n∧T)ρ(Xn∧T,Yn∧T)M_n=e^{c(n\wedge T)}\rho(X_{n\wedge T},Y_{n\wedge T})Mn​=ec(n∧T)ρ(Xn∧T​,Yn∧T​) is a non-negative supermartingale, where TTT is the exit time from A×AA\times AA×A.
  2. (134). ecnE[ρ(Xn,Yn);n≤T]≤E[Mn]≤∫ρ dγe^{cn}E[\rho(X_n,Y_n);n\le T]\le E[M_n]\le\int\rho\,d\gammaecnE[ρ(Xn​,Yn​);n≤T]≤E[Mn​]≤∫ρdγ.
  3. (135). E[ρ(Xn,Yn);n>T]≤βnE[ψ(XT)+ψ(YT);n>T] δ(C)E[\rho(X_n,Y_n);n>T]\le\beta^nE[\psi(X_T)+\psi(Y_T);n>T]\,\delta(C)E[ρ(Xn​,Yn​);n>T]≤βnE[ψ(XT​)+ψ(YT​);n>T]δ(C), through the intermediate bounds by φ\varphiφ.
  4. (136). E[ψ(XT)+ψ(YT);n>T]≤λn−1(∫ψ dν+∫ψ dη)E[\psi(X_T)+\psi(Y_T);n>T]\le\lambda^{n-1}\big(\int\psi\,d\nu+\int\psi\,d\eta\big)E[ψ(XT​)+ψ(YT​);n>T]≤λn−1(∫ψdν+∫ψdη).

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.11 separates two tasks that are usually entangled in convergence proofs for Markov chains on unbounded spaces. One is a contraction estimate that only has to hold on a sublevel set {ψ≤C}\{\psi\le C\}{ψ≤C}. The other is a pair of drift conditions that control excursions out of that set. The second term of (42) is made small by choosing CCC large, and the first by choosing nnn large. In the paper this gives W1\mathcal W^1W1 bounds to the invariant measure for adjusted numerical HMC (Theorem 2.12), whose contraction (Theorems 2.4 and 2.7) is only established on a ball. The theorem uses nothing about HMC and applies to any chain with a locally contractive coupling and the two Lyapunov conditions. Examples are other discretized diffusions and Metropolis-adjusted samplers.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known, it has no machine-checked proof. A formalization requires constructing a Markovian coupling on a general measurable space and working with a generalized, [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued supermartingale stopped at an exit time. It also needs the Markov property with respect to the joint filtration of a coupled pair. Both pieces are reusable in coupling arguments for Markov chains in general.

Difficulty

Contraction on {ψ≤C}2\{\psi\le C\}^2{ψ≤C}2 gives no control once either copy leaves that set, and the exit time TTT is random and may be infinite. The bound therefore has to be split at TTT. On {n≤T}\{n\le T\}{n≤T} the contraction accumulates, which requires optional stopping for a supermartingale that need not be integrable, because ∫ρ dγ\int\rho\,d\gamma∫ρdγ may be +∞+\infty+∞. On {n>T}\{n>T\}{n>T} the distance at time nnn has to be bounded by quantities at the random time TTT. This requires the Markov property of each copy with respect to the filtration of the pair: the event {T=k}\{T=k\}{T=k} depends on both copies. A Markov property of each copy in its own filtration does not suffice. Finally, ψ\psiψ at the exit time has to be controlled by its initial integral, which is a second stopped supermartingale built from (C1).

Formalization scope

  • (S,ρ)(S,\rho)(S,ρ) is a Lean MetricSpace with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra, complete and separable; ρ\rhoρ is dist. π\piπ is a Markov kernel (Kernel S S with IsMarkovKernel), and νπn\nu\pi^nνπn is the bind of ν\nuν with the nnn-fold composition of π\piπ.
  • Every expectation of a non-negative quantity, every ∫ψ dν\int\psi\,d\nu∫ψdν, δ(C)\delta(C)δ(C) and Wρ\mathcal W_\rhoWρ​ is valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (lower Lebesgue integrals, ℝ≥0∞). No Bochner integral appears, so a non-integrable quantity can never be replaced by a junk 000. In particular, ∫ψ dν=∞\int\psi\,d\nu=\infty∫ψdν=∞ is allowed, as on the page.
  • Couplings are the published definition MongeKantorovichYao.transferencePlans.
  • (C3)'s probability space and coupling map are parameters of the theorem, which then holds for every such realization.
  • λn−1\lambda^{n-1}λn−1 is an integer power, so n=0n=0n=0 is included (and (42) is then trivially true).
  • Lemma 6.1's chain is the coordinate process on the path space (S×S)N(S\times S)^{\mathbb N}(S×S)N, which is determined up to its law. The supermartingale property is the generalized one, E[Mn+1;F]≤E[Mn;F]E[M_{n+1};F]\le E[M_n;F]E[Mn+1​;F]≤E[Mn​;F] for F∈FnF\in\mathcal F_nF∈Fn​. Mathlib's Supermartingale requires integrability, which the page does not assume. The exit time is N∪{∞}\mathbb N\cup\{\infty\}N∪{∞}-valued, and n∧T=nn\wedge T=nn∧T=n when the chain never leaves.
  • The marginal Markov property is stated with respect to the filtration of the pair. This is what the proof of (135) and (136) uses, and it implies the marginal Markov property in each copy's own filtration.
  • The proof on p. 43 applies Lemma 6.1 "with A={ψ>C}A=\{\psi>C\}A={ψ>C}". The set on which (C3) contracts and whose exit time is TTT is {ψ≤C}\{\psi\le C\}{ψ≤C}, and that set is used. The text before (135) says "{n<T}\{n<T\}{n<T}" where its displays use {n>T}\{n>T\}{n>T}, and the displays are formalized.
  • A formalization in which Wρ\mathcal W_\rhoWρ​ or δ(C)\delta(C)δ(C) is a real number obtained by truncating +∞+\infty+∞, or in which the measures need not be probability measures (so that the coupling set is empty and Wρ=∞\mathcal W_\rho=\inftyWρ​=∞), would make (42) vacuous and is excluded.

A complete development needs Ionescu-Tulcea's construction of a Markov chain on a general measurable space (ProbabilityTheory.Kernel.traj in Mathlib), the measurability of the coupling kernel (x,y)↦P∘(X′,Y′)(x,y,⋅)−1(x,y)\mapsto P\circ(X',Y')(x,y,\cdot)^{-1}(x,y)↦P∘(X′,Y′)(x,y,⋅)−1, and optional stopping for [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued supermartingales stopped at an exit time. Contributions are welcome on the milestones individually. The optional-stopping and joint-Markov-property lemmas are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • N. Bou-Rabee, A. Eberle, R. Zimmer, Coupling and convergence for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020. arXiv:1805.00452 (v2 is the version cited here).
  • A. Joulin, Y. Ollivier, Curvature, concentration and error estimates for Markov chain Monte Carlo, Ann. Probab. 38(6), 2010. doi:10.1214/10-AOP541
  • C. Villani, Optimal Transport: Old and New, Springer, 2009. doi:10.1007/978-3-540-71050-9
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Markov ChainNumerical AnalysisOptimal Transport·Captain: mikedeng1

Coupling and Convergence for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo 1: Exact HMC Contracts the Concave Kantorovich Distance W_ρ at Rate c = (1/10)·min(1, ½KT²(1+ℛ/T)e^{−ℛ/(2T)})·e^{−2ℛ/T}Research Paper

Why convergence bounds for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo matter

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from a probability density μ(dx)∝e−U(x) dx\mu(dx)\propto e^{-U(x)}\,dxμ(dx)∝e−U(x)dx on Rd\mathbb R^dRd. It is the default sampler of probabilistic programming systems such as Stan, and it is used throughout Bayesian statistics, molecular dynamics and machine learning. In practice the chain is run for a finite number of steps, and a user needs to know how many steps make its law close to μ\muμ. That requires a quantitative, dimension-explicit convergence bound.

Before the paper of Bou-Rabee, Eberle and Zimmer, such bounds were known essentially only when UUU is strongly convex everywhere: then two copies of the chain driven by the same random velocity contract deterministically (Mangoubi and Smith, arXiv:1708.07114). Bou-Rabee, Eberle and Zimmer (arXiv:1805.00452, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020) remove global convexity. They require UUU to be strongly convex only outside a ball, and they introduce a coupling of two HMC transitions under which a suitably concave distance contracts on average for every pair of starting points. This mission formalizes that contraction theorem for exact HMC, together with its consequence, exponential convergence in the L1L^1L1 Wasserstein distance.

Setting

Let U:Rd→RU:\mathbb R^d\to\mathbb RU:Rd→R be four times continuously differentiable with ∫e−U<∞\int e^{-U}<\infty∫e−U<∞. The Hamiltonian is H(x,v)=U(x)+12∣v∣2H(x,v)=U(x)+\tfrac12|v|^2H(x,v)=U(x)+21​∣v∣2, and the exact Hamiltonian flow (qt,pt)(q_t,p_t)(qt​,pt​) solves

ddtqt=pt,ddtpt=−∇U(qt),(q0(x,v),p0(x,v))=(x,v).\tfrac{d}{dt}q_t=p_t,\qquad \tfrac{d}{dt}p_t=-\nabla U(q_t),\qquad (q_0(x,v),p_0(x,v))=(x,v).dtd​qt​=pt​,dtd​pt​=−∇U(qt​),(q0​(x,v),p0​(x,v))=(x,v).

Fix a duration T>0T>0T>0. One step of exact HMC from xxx draws a fresh velocity ξ∼N(0,Id)\xi\sim N(0,I_d)ξ∼N(0,Id​) and moves to X′(x)=qT(x,ξ)X'(x)=q_T(x,\xi)X′(x)=qT​(x,ξ); its transition kernel is π(x,⋅)=law(qT(x,ξ))\pi(x,\cdot)=\mathrm{law}(q_T(x,\xi))π(x,⋅)=law(qT​(x,ξ)), and μ\muμ is invariant for π\piπ.

Assumption 2.1 asks that (A1) UUU has a local minimum at 000 with U(0)=0U(0)=0U(0)=0; (A2) the second, third and fourth derivatives of UUU are bounded, with L=sup⁡∥∇2U∥L=\sup\|\nabla^2U\|L=sup∥∇2U∥, M=sup⁡∥∇3U∥M=\sup\|\nabla^3U\|M=sup∥∇3U∥ and N=sup⁡∥∇4U∥N=\sup\|\nabla^4U\|N=sup∥∇4U∥; and (A3) there are R≥0\mathcal R\ge0R≥0 and K>0K>0K>0 such that

(x−y)⋅(∇U(x)−∇U(y))≥K∣x−y∣2whenever ∣x−y∣≥R.(x-y)\cdot(\nabla U(x)-\nabla U(y))\ge K|x-y|^2\quad\text{whenever }|x-y|\ge\mathcal R.(x−y)⋅(∇U(x)−∇U(y))≥K∣x−y∣2whenever ∣x−y∣≥R.

The coupling. For two starting points x,yx,yx,y with z=x−yz=x-yz=x−y, e=z/∣z∣e=z/|z|e=z/∣z∣, both copies use the same ξ\xiξ. If ∣x−y∣≥2R|x-y|\ge2\mathcal R∣x−y∣≥2R the second copy also uses ξ\xiξ (synchronous coupling). If ∣x−y∣<2R|x-y|<2\mathcal R∣x−y∣<2R it uses

η={ξ+γzif U~≤φ0,1(e⋅ξ+γ∣z∣)/φ0,1(e⋅ξ),ξ−2(e⋅ξ)eotherwise,\eta=\begin{cases}\xi+\gamma z&\text{if }\tilde{\mathcal U}\le\varphi_{0,1}(e\cdot\xi+\gamma|z|)/\varphi_{0,1}(e\cdot\xi),\\ \xi-2(e\cdot\xi)e&\text{otherwise,}\end{cases}η={ξ+γzξ−2(e⋅ξ)e​if U~≤φ0,1​(e⋅ξ+γ∣z∣)/φ0,1​(e⋅ξ),otherwise,​

with U~∼Unif(0,1)\tilde{\mathcal U}\sim\mathrm{Unif}(0,1)U~∼Unif(0,1) independent of ξ\xiξ and φ0,1\varphi_{0,1}φ0,1​ the standard normal density. This is a maximal coupling of N(0,Id)N(0,I_d)N(0,Id​) with its shift by γz\gamma zγz, completed by a reflection. The coupled positions are X′=qT(x,ξ)X'=q_T(x,\xi)X′=qT​(x,ξ) and Y′=qT(y,η)Y'=q_T(y,\eta)Y′=qT​(y,η), with R′(x,y)=∣X′−Y′∣R'(x,y)=|X'-Y'|R′(x,y)=∣X′−Y′∣.

The distance and the parameters. With γ=min⁡(T−1,R−1/4)\gamma=\min(T^{-1},\mathcal R^{-1}/4)γ=min(T−1,R−1/4), a=T−1a=T^{-1}a=T−1 and R1=52(R+T)R_1=\tfrac52(\mathcal R+T)R1​=25​(R+T), set

f(r)=∫0re−amin⁡(s,R1) ds,ρ(x,y)=f(∣x−y∣),f(r)=\int_0^r e^{-a\min(s,R_1)}\,ds,\qquad \rho(x,y)=f(|x-y|),f(r)=∫0r​e−amin(s,R1​)ds,ρ(x,y)=f(∣x−y∣),

and let Wρ(ν,η)=inf⁡γ∈C(ν,η)∫ρ dγ\mathcal W_\rho(\nu,\eta)=\inf_{\gamma\in C(\nu,\eta)}\int\rho\,d\gammaWρ​(ν,η)=infγ∈C(ν,η)​∫ρdγ be the Kantorovich distance over couplings C(ν,η)C(\nu,\eta)C(ν,η).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.3

Under Assumption 2.1 and LT2≤min⁡(K/L,14,116Λ)LT^2\le\min(K/L,\tfrac14,\tfrac1{16\Lambda})LT2≤min(K/L,41​,16Λ1​) with Λ=16LR2\Lambda=16L\mathcal R^2Λ=16LR2, for all x,y∈Rdx,y\in\mathbb R^dx,y∈Rd,

E[f(R′(x,y))]≤(1−c) f(∣x−y∣),c=110min⁡(1,12KT2(1+RT)e−R/(2T))e−2R/T.E\bigl[f(R'(x,y))\bigr]\le(1-c)\,f(|x-y|),\qquad c=\frac1{10}\min\Bigl(1,\frac12KT^2\Bigl(1+\frac{\mathcal R}{T}\Bigr)e^{-\mathcal R/(2T)}\Bigr)e^{-2\mathcal R/T}.E[f(R′(x,y))]≤(1−c)f(∣x−y∣),c=101​min(1,21​KT2(1+TR​)e−R/(2T))e−2R/T.

This is the paper's main result for exact HMC, stated with its own constants.

Milestones (in the order of the proof)

  1. (112)–(116): the parameter inequalities γT≤1\gamma T\le1γT≤1, LT≤γ/4LT\le\gamma/4LT≤γ/4, γR≤14\gamma\mathcal R\le\tfrac14γR≤41​, aT≥1aT\ge1aT≥1, R1≥52(1+γT)RR_1\ge\tfrac52(1+\gamma T)\mathcal RR1​≥25​(1+γT)R.
  2. Lemma 3.4 (h=0h=0h=0): ∣qt(x,v)−qt(y,v)∣2≤(1−Kt2/2)∣x−y∣2|q_t(x,v)-q_t(y,v)|^2\le(1-Kt^2/2)|x-y|^2∣qt​(x,v)−qt​(y,v)∣2≤(1−Kt2/2)∣x−y∣2 for ∣x−y∣≥2R|x-y|\ge2\mathcal R∣x−y∣≥2R.
  3. Theorem 2.1: the synchronous coupling contracts far-apart points, R′2≤(1−12KT2)r2R'^2\le(1-\tfrac12KT^2)r^2R′2≤(1−21​KT2)r2.
  4. (119)–(120): inf⁡r>0rf′(r)/f(r)≥max⁡(1,aR1)e−aR1\inf_{r>0}rf'(r)/f(r)\ge\max(1,aR_1)e^{-aR_1}infr>0​rf′(r)/f(r)≥max(1,aR1​)e−aR1​, and the resulting bound on c1c_1c1​.
  5. Lemma 3.2 (h=0h=0h=0): first-variation bounds for the flow.
  6. Term I: on {η=ξ+γz}\{\eta=\xi+\gamma z\}{η=ξ+γz}, R′≤(1−34γT)rR'\le(1-\tfrac34\gamma T)rR′≤(1−43​γT)r.
  7. Lemma 3.7 (62): P[ξ−η≠−γz]≤∣γz∣/2πP[\xi-\eta\ne-\gamma z]\le|\gamma z|/\sqrt{2\pi}P[ξ−η=−γz]≤∣γz∣/2π​.
  8. (123): the truncated loss on the reflection event is at most (γT/2π) rf′(r)(\gamma T/\sqrt{2\pi})\,rf'(r)(γT/2π​)rf′(r).
  9. Term III: E[(R′−R1)+; ξ−η≠−γz]≤54γrTE[(R'-R_1)^+;\,\xi-\eta\ne-\gamma z]\le\tfrac54\gamma rTE[(R′−R1​)+;ξ−η=−γz]≤45​γrT.
  10. (127): 15γTmax⁡(1,2aR)e−2aR≥110e−2R/T\tfrac15\gamma T\max(1,2a\mathcal R)e^{-2a\mathcal R}\ge\tfrac1{10}e^{-2\mathcal R/T}51​γTmax(1,2aR)e−2aR≥101​e−2R/T.

Companions

The coupling property (η∼N(0,Id)\eta\sim N(0,I_d)η∼N(0,Id​), p. 9), Corollary 2.8 (Wρ(νπn,ηπn)≤e−cnWρ(ν,η)\mathcal W_\rho(\nu\pi^n,\eta\pi^n)\le e^{-cn}\mathcal W_\rho(\nu,\eta)Wρ​(νπn,ηπn)≤e−cnWρ​(ν,η), the W1\mathcal W^1W1 bound with factor M=e52(1+R/T)M=e^{\frac52(1+\mathcal R/T)}M=e25​(1+R/T), and the step count (41)), and the comparison (133), e−aR1∣x−y∣≤ρ(x,y)≤∣x−y∣e^{-aR_1}|x-y|\le\rho(x,y)\le|x-y|e−aR1​∣x−y∣≤ρ(x,y)≤∣x−y∣.

Significance

Theorem 2.3 gives a contraction rate for exact HMC that depends on ddd only through the constants LLL, KKK and R\mathcal RR of the potential, and that holds without global convexity. Through the coupling characterization of Wρ\mathcal W_\rhoWρ​ it yields Corollary 2.8, an explicit number of steps after which the law of the chain is within ϵ\epsilonϵ of μ\muμ in W1\mathcal W^1W1. The same coupling and concave-distance technique underlies the paper's results for numerical (velocity Verlet) HMC and later work on Langevin and HMC couplings.

The theorems are proved in the paper; none of them is machine-checked. Formalizing them requires the Hamiltonian ODE flow and its first-variation estimates, a Gaussian maximal/reflection coupling, and the transfer from one-step contraction to Kantorovich contraction of Markov kernels. Each of these is reusable well beyond HMC. A formal development also settles the constants. Three printed displays of the proof are not delivered by the printed argument, and Theorem 2.1 as printed is false, while the goal itself survives: see Formalization scope.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails for nearby points. When ∣x−y∣<2R|x-y|<2\mathcal R∣x−y∣<2R, UUU may be non-convex between them, and the synchronous coupling can push the two trajectories apart. The coupling must therefore change the velocity of one copy, and doing so makes the contraction only hold on average, on the event η=ξ+γz\eta=\xi+\gamma zη=ξ+γz. On the complementary reflection event the distance can grow, and the growth must be paid for by the concavity of fff, through the truncation at R1R_1R1​ and the tail term. Balancing these terms, uniformly in xxx, yyy and ddd, is the heart of the proof. For far-apart points the difficulty is different: the contraction of Lemma 3.4 needs the trajectories to stay outside the non-convex region over the whole time interval, which is where the condition LT2<K/LLT^2<K/LLT2<K/L enters.

Formalization scope

  • Space and objects. Rd\mathbb R^dRd is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); ∇U\nabla U∇U is Mathlib's gradient, and ∇kU\nabla^kU∇kU is iteratedFDeriv. L,M,NL,M,NL,M,N are upper bounds on the derivative norms, which is equivalent for every statement here. The flow is pinned by a predicate on (q,p)(q,p)(q,p) (initial values and the ODE for all t∈Rt\in\mathbb Rt∈R); it is never a free function. Assumption 2.1 includes the standing hypotheses of §2.1: U∈C4U\in C^4U∈C4, ∫e−U<∞\int e^{-U}<\infty∫e−U<∞, and TTT deterministic.
  • Probability. The randomness of one step is (ξ,U~)(\xi,\tilde{\mathcal U})(ξ,U~) with law N(0,Id)⊗Unif(0,1)N(0,I_d)\otimes\mathrm{Unif}(0,1)N(0,Id​)⊗Unif(0,1). Expectations of nonnegative quantities are Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The signed expectation in (123) uses a Bochner integral together with an explicit integrability conclusion, so no bound can hold because a non-integrable integral is read as 000. Kantorovich distances take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] over the published set of couplings MongeKantorovichYao.transferencePlans. The nnn-step kernel is the iterated composition πn+1=π∘πn\pi^{n+1}=\pi\circ\pi^nπn+1=π∘πn.
  • Conventions at R=0\mathcal R=0R=0. γ\gammaγ is T−1T^{-1}T−1 and LT2≤1/(16Λ)LT^2\le1/(16\Lambda)LT2≤1/(16Λ) is written 256L2R2T2≤1256L^2\mathcal R^2T^2\le1256L2R2T2≤1, so that no division by zero decides a constant.
  • Corrections. The strict condition (56) in Lemma 3.4 is written L2t2<KL^2t^2<KL2t2<K, which preserves its meaning at L=0L=0L=0. Theorem 2.1 is stated as its proof delivers it, R′2≤(1−12KT2)r2R'^2\le(1-\tfrac12KT^2)r^2R′2≤(1−21​KT2)r2. The printed R′≤(1−12KT2)rR'\le(1-\tfrac12KT^2)rR′≤(1−21​KT2)r fails for U(x)=12∣x∣2U(x)=\tfrac12|x|^2U(x)=21​∣x∣2, where R′=∣cos⁡T∣ rR'=|\cos T|\,rR′=∣cosT∣r. The displays (117), (122), the last inequality of (124), and (126) are not posed, because the printed argument does not deliver their constants. The goal's rate ccc of (32) is nevertheless unaffected: under the step condition and d≥1d\ge1d≥1, c=120KT2(1+R/T)e−5R/(2T)c=\tfrac1{20}KT^2(1+\mathcal R/T)e^{-5\mathcal R/(2T)}c=201​KT2(1+R/T)e−5R/(2T), which lies below both corrected rates c1c_1c1​ and c2c_2c2​.
  • Ruled out. The goal is not trivialized by a vacuous hypothesis: the hypotheses are met by U(x)=12∣x∣2U(x)=\tfrac12|x|^2U(x)=21​∣x∣2, L=K=1L=K=1L=K=1, R=0\mathcal R=0R=0, T=12T=\tfrac12T=21​. Nor is it trivialized by a junk value: fff, R′R'R′ and the integral are genuine, and the flow is the unique solution of the ODE.
  • Contributions welcome. Gronwall-type first-variation bounds for Lipschitz Hamiltonian flows, the Gaussian maximal/reflection coupling (Lemma 3.7 and the coupling property), and the general passage from a one-step average contraction to Wρ\mathcal W_\rhoWρ​ contraction of a Markov kernel.

Selected references

  • N. Bou-Rabee, A. Eberle, R. Zimmer, Coupling and convergence for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, Ann. Appl. Probab. 30(3), 2020. arXiv:1805.00452, doi:10.1214/19-AAP1528
  • O. Mangoubi, A. Smith, Rapid mixing of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on strongly log-concave distributions, 2017. arXiv:1708.07114
  • A. Eberle, Reflection couplings and contraction rates for diffusions, Probab. Theory Related Fields 166, 2016. arXiv:1305.1233
  • A. Eberle, A. Guillin, R. Zimmer, Couplings and quantitative contraction rates for Langevin dynamics, Ann. Probab. 47(4), 2019. arXiv:1703.01617
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Machine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets II: The Waudby-Smith–Ramdas Betting Bound Is a (1 − δ) Upper Confidence Bound for the Mean Loss (Proposition 5)Research Paper

Motivation

A risk-controlling prediction set is a set-valued predictor T\mathcal TT that, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ over a calibration sample, has expected loss at most a target level α\alphaα. Bates, Angelopoulos, Lei, Malik and Jordan (arXiv:2101.02703, J. ACM 2021) build such sets for any black-box predictor and any bounded loss by a procedure called upper confidence bound (UCB) calibration: for each value of a tuning parameter λ\lambdaλ, compute from the calibration data an upper confidence bound R^+(λ)\widehat R^+(\lambda)R+(λ) for the risk R(λ)R(\lambda)R(λ), and pick the smallest λ\lambdaλ beyond which all these bounds sit below α\alphaα. The guarantee of the procedure (their Theorem 1) holds for any choice of the pointwise bound, so the size of the resulting sets is governed by how tight that bound is.

The paper compares several such bounds: Hoeffding, Bentkus, the empirical Bernstein bound of Maurer and Pontil, and a bound adapted from the hedged capital confidence interval of Waudby-Smith and Ramdas (arXiv:2010.09686). The last one, the Waudby-Smith–Ramdas (WSR) bound, adapts to the unknown variance of the loss and is the one the authors recommend for non-binary losses; their experiments use it throughout. Proposition 5 of the paper states that the WSR bound is a valid (1−δ)(1-\delta)(1−δ) upper confidence bound for the mean of a [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued loss. This mission formalizes that proposition.

Timeline: Ville (1939) proved the maximal inequality for nonnegative supermartingales that underlies all betting-based confidence bounds. Waudby-Smith and Ramdas (2020) introduced the hedged capital process and its confidence sequences for bounded means. Bates et al. (2021) extracted the one-sided, fixed-sample variant stated as Proposition 5, with the explicit betting fractions νi\nu_iνi​ below.

Setting

Fix the tuning parameter λ\lambdaλ; it is dropped from the notation. The calibration losses L1,…,LnL_1, \dots, L_nL1​,…,Ln​ are independent and identically distributed with law QQQ on [0,1][0,1][0,1] (the loss is nonnegative and, by the standing assumption of §3.1 of the paper, bounded by one), and their mean is the risk

R=∫x dQ(x).R = \int x \, dQ(x).R=∫xdQ(x).

Fix a level δ∈(0,1)\delta \in (0,1)δ∈(0,1). For i≥0i \ge 0i≥0 define the running mean and variance

μ^i=1/2+∑j=1iLj1+i,σ^i2=1/4+∑j=1i(Lj−μ^j)21+i,\hat\mu_i = \frac{1/2 + \sum_{j=1}^{i} L_j}{1+i}, \qquad \hat\sigma^2_i = \frac{1/4 + \sum_{j=1}^{i} (L_j - \hat\mu_j)^2}{1+i},μ^​i​=1+i1/2+∑j=1i​Lj​​,σ^i2​=1+i1/4+∑j=1i​(Lj​−μ^​j​)2​,

so σ^02=1/4\hat\sigma^2_0 = 1/4σ^02​=1/4, and for i≥1i \ge 1i≥1 the betting fraction

νi=min⁡{1,2log⁡(1/δ)n σ^i−12},\nu_i = \min\left\{1, \sqrt{\frac{2\log(1/\delta)}{n\,\hat\sigma^2_{i-1}}}\right\},νi​=min{1,nσ^i−12​2log(1/δ)​​},

which depends only on L1,…,Li−1L_1, \dots, L_{i-1}L1​,…,Li−1​. For a candidate mean R′∈RR' \in \mathbb RR′∈R, the capital process is

Ki(R′)=∏j=1i{1−νj(Lj−R′)},K0(R′)=1,\mathcal K_i(R') = \prod_{j=1}^{i} \bigl\{1 - \nu_j (L_j - R')\bigr\}, \qquad \mathcal K_0(R') = 1,Ki​(R′)=j=1∏i​{1−νj​(Lj​−R′)},K0​(R′)=1,

the wealth of a gambler who, starting with one unit, bets the fraction νj\nu_jνj​ of their wealth against the hypothesis that the mean is R′R'R′. The WSR bound is

R^WSR+=inf⁡{R′≥0:max⁡i=1,…,nKi(R′)>1δ},\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}} = \inf\Bigl\{R' \ge 0 : \max_{i=1,\dots,n} \mathcal K_i(R') > \frac1\delta\Bigr\},RWSR+​=inf{R′≥0:i=1,…,nmax​Ki​(R′)>δ1​},

the smallest candidate mean the gambler has discredited by multiplying their wealth by more than 1/δ1/\delta1/δ. In Lean these are obs, muHat, sigmaSqHat, nu, K and wsrUCB in the namespace RiskControl.WSR, and Fi=σ(L1,…,Li)\mathcal F_i = \sigma(L_1,\dots,L_i)Fi​=σ(L1​,…,Li​) is filt n.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 7)

For n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 and δ∈(0,1)\delta \in (0,1)δ∈(0,1),

P(R^WSR+<R)≤δ,that isP(R≤R^WSR+)≥1−δ,\mathbb P\bigl(\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}} < R\bigr) \le \delta, \qquad\text{that is}\qquad \mathbb P\bigl(R \le \widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}}\bigr) \ge 1-\delta,P(RWSR+​<R)≤δ,that isP(R≤RWSR+​)≥1−δ,

the probability being the product law Q⊗nQ^{\otimes n}Q⊗n of the sample.

Milestones (proof of Proposition 5, p. 26)

  1. Nonnegative factors. νi∈[0,1]\nu_i \in [0,1]νi​∈[0,1], and for losses in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and R∈[0,1]R \in [0,1]R∈[0,1], 1−νj(Lj−R)≥01 - \nu_j(L_j - R) \ge 01−νj​(Lj​−R)≥0.
  2. Martingale. At the true mean, i↦Kmin⁡(i,n)(R)i \mapsto \mathcal K_{\min(i,n)}(R)i↦Kmin(i,n)​(R) is a martingale for (Fi)(\mathcal F_i)(Fi​):
E[Ki(R)∣Fi−1]=Ki−1(R).\mathbb E\bigl[\mathcal K_i(R) \mid \mathcal F_{i-1}\bigr] = \mathcal K_{i-1}(R).E[Ki​(R)∣Fi−1​]=Ki−1​(R).
  1. Ville's inequality (referenced, already proved on the platform): a nonnegative supermartingale started at most 111 exceeds 1/δ1/\delta1/δ with probability at most δ\deltaδ.
  2. Monotonicity. For losses in [0,1][0,1][0,1], R′↦Ki(R′)R' \mapsto \mathcal K_i(R')R′↦Ki​(R′) is nondecreasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  3. Inclusion. For losses in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and R≥0R \ge 0R≥0, R^WSR+<R\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}} < RRWSR+​<R implies max⁡i≤nKi(R)≥1/δ\max_{i \le n} \mathcal K_i(R) \ge 1/\deltamaxi≤n​Ki​(R)≥1/δ.

Significance

The result is the validity half of the WSR bound: with it, UCB calibration (Theorem 1 of the paper) applied to R^WSR+\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}}RWSR+​ gives the paper's Theorem 4, a risk-controlling prediction set built from the variance-adaptive bound that the experiments of the paper use for classification, segmentation and protein-structure tasks. It is also a self-contained instance of the betting approach to confidence bounds for bounded means, which now underlies a family of nonasymptotic, variance-adaptive procedures in statistics and machine learning.

The proposition is proved in the paper (p. 26), following the proof of Theorem 4 of Waudby-Smith and Ramdas. To our knowledge neither it nor the hedged capital construction has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces one: a Lean statement of the WSR bound with its exact constants, and a proof that reuses the platform's Ville inequality. The capital process and its martingale property are the reusable part; the same construction with other predictable betting fractions gives other confidence bounds.

Difficulty

The bound is not obtained by inverting a tail inequality for the empirical mean, so Hoeffding- or Bernstein-type arguments do not apply. The probabilistic core is the martingale step: one must show that νi\nu_iνi​ is a measurable function of L1,…,Li−1L_1,\dots,L_{i-1}L1​,…,Li−1​ only (it involves σ^i−12\hat\sigma^2_{i-1}σ^i−12​, which involves every μ^j\hat\mu_jμ^​j​ for j<ij < ij<i), and compute a conditional expectation on the product space Rn\mathbb R^nRn using independence of the coordinates. Ville's inequality then holds only at the true mean RRR, a single unknown point, while R^WSR+\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}}RWSR+​ is an infimum over all candidate means; the passage between them needs the monotonicity of Ki\mathcal K_iKi​ in its argument, which fails without the bound Lj≤1L_j \le 1Lj​≤1 (a factor can turn negative). A union bound over candidate means, the first idea, gives nothing here.

Formalization scope

The sample is ω:Fin n→R\omega : \mathrm{Fin}\,n \to \mathbb Rω:Finn→R under Measure.pi (fun _ => Q), with Lj=ω(j−1)L_j = \omega(j-1)Lj​=ω(j−1) for 1≤j≤n1 \le j \le n1≤j≤n (1-based indices as on the page). QQQ is the law of the loss L(Y,Tλ(X))L(Y, \mathcal T_\lambda(X))L(Y,Tλ​(X)) for the fixed λ\lambdaλ, assumed concentrated on [0,1][0,1][0,1]: this is the §3.1 standing assumption together with L≥0L \ge 0L≥0. The goal adds two hypotheses implicit on the page: n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 and 0<δ<10 < \delta < 10<δ<1 (so that log⁡(1/δ)>0\log(1/\delta) > 0log(1/δ)>0). The empty sum gives σ^02=1/4\hat\sigma^2_0 = 1/4σ^02​=1/4; "max⁡i=1,…,nKi>1/δ\max_{i=1,\dots,n} \mathcal K_i > 1/\deltamaxi=1,…,n​Ki​>1/δ" is written as an existential over i∈{1,…,n}i \in \{1,\dots,n\}i∈{1,…,n}; the infimum is an extended-real infimum, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when no candidate qualifies. The failure probability is bounded through the outer measure of {R^WSR+<R}\{\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}} < R\}{RWSR+​<R}, which equals the page's statement for a measurable event. The martingale is extended constantly past time nnn so that it is indexed by N\mathbb NN.

Two printed slips are corrected: the proof's "then P(max⁡iKi≥1/δ)P(\max_i \mathcal K_i \ge 1/\delta)P(maxi​Ki​≥1/δ)" (a stray PPP) is stated as the event, and "increasing in RRR" is stated as nondecreasing on R≥0R \ge 0R≥0.

The infimum must not be a real infimum: a real sInf of an empty set is 000, which would make R^WSR+<R\widehat R^+_{\mathrm{WSR}} < RRWSR+​<R true for every positive mean and the goal false; with the extended-real infimum the empty case gives +∞+\infty+∞, and the goal is the paper's proposition, not a vacuous one.

Contributions welcome: the measurability of νi\nu_iνi​ with respect to Fi−1\mathcal F_{i-1}Fi−1​, conditional expectations of products of independent coordinates under Measure.pi, and a finite-horizon form of Ville's inequality (Mathlib's Doob maximal inequality MeasureTheory.maximal_ineq is an alternative route).

Selected references

  • S. Bates, A. Angelopoulos, L. Lei, J. Malik, M. I. Jordan, Distribution-Free, Risk-Controlling Prediction Sets, J. ACM 68(6), 2021. arXiv:2101.02703v3
  • I. Waudby-Smith, A. Ramdas, Estimating means of bounded random variables by betting, J. R. Stat. Soc. B, 2024. arXiv:2010.09686
  • J. Ville, Étude critique de la notion de collectif, Gauthier-Villars, 1939.
  • A. Maurer, M. Pontil, Empirical Bernstein Bounds and Sample Variance Penalization, COLT 2009. arXiv:0907.3740
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Information TheoryMachine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Information-Theoretic Analysis of Generalization Capability of Learning Algorithms III: The Gibbs Algorithm Has Excess Risk at Most (1/β)log(1/Q(wₒ)) + β/(2n) (Corollary 2)Research Paper

Motivation

Statistical learning algorithms fit hypotheses to data that are available during training, while their performance is judged on new data. A rule that minimizes training loss can fit peculiarities of the sample, so its training loss and population loss need not agree. Xu and Raginsky study this difference through information quantities associated with the sample and the algorithm's output. Their Gibbs example shows how a probability distribution chosen before seeing the data can guide a randomized learner and yield a population-risk guarantee with explicit dependence on the sample size and the prior's mass at a good hypothesis. This mission formalizes their countable-hypothesis result, Corollary 2, and the steps of Section 4.3 and Appendix D that support it. Xu and Raginsky, 2017

Setting

Let Z\mathcal ZZ be an instance space and W\mathcal WW a hypothesis space, each with a measurable structure. A probability measure μ\muμ on Z\mathcal ZZ generates a sample S=(Z1,…,Zn)S=(Z_1,\ldots,Z_n)S=(Z1​,…,Zn​) of nnn independent observations. A loss ℓ(w,z)\ell(w,z)ℓ(w,z) measures the cost of hypothesis www on instance zzz. Its population risk is Lμ(w)=EZ∼μℓ(w,Z)L_\mu(w)=\mathbb E_{Z\sim\mu}\ell(w,Z)Lμ​(w)=EZ∼μ​ℓ(w,Z); its empirical risk on a realized sample sss is Ls(w)=n−1∑i=1nℓ(w,zi)L_s(w)=n^{-1}\sum_{i=1}^n\ell(w,z_i)Ls​(w)=n−1∑i=1n​ℓ(w,zi​). These definitions match equations (1)–(3) of the paper. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, p. 2

A randomized learning rule is a Markov kernel PW∣SP_{W|S}PW∣S​: for each observed sample sss, it gives a probability distribution for an output hypothesis WWW. Together with the sample law μ⊗n\mu^{\otimes n}μ⊗n, it determines the joint law of (S,W)(S,W)(S,W). The expected generalization error is gen⁡(μ,PW∣S)=E[Lμ(W)−LS(W)]\operatorname{gen}(\mu,P_{W|S})=\mathbb E[L_\mu(W)-L_S(W)]gen(μ,PW∣S​)=E[Lμ​(W)−LS​(W)], as in equation (4). A probability distribution QQQ on W\mathcal WW serves as a prior. The Gibbs rule at inverse temperature β>0\beta>0β>0 weights a hypothesis by its prior mass times e−βLs(w)e^{-\beta L_s(w)}e−βLs​(w), then normalizes across the hypothesis space. Thus it favors low empirical risk without discarding the prior. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, pp. 2, 6

The associated optimization problem balances expected empirical risk against the conditional Kullback–Leibler divergence from the learning kernel to QQQ: D(PW∣S∥Q∣PS)=∫D(PW∣S=s∥Q) μ⊗n(ds)D(P_{W|S}\Vert Q\mid P_S)=\int D(P_{W|S=s}\Vert Q)\,\mu^{\otimes n}(ds)D(PW∣S​∥Q∣PS​)=∫D(PW∣S=s​∥Q)μ⊗n(ds). This penalty measures how much the output distribution changes from the prior after observing the sample. The paper's Theorem 5 identifies the Gibbs kernel as an optimizer of this relaxed problem. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, p. 6

Formalization targets

Gibbs optimization

For nonnegative loss, Theorem 5 asserts that the Gibbs kernel is a Markov learning rule, has the normalized exponential distribution at each sample, and minimizes the relaxed objective over learning kernels:

PW∣S=s∗(dw)=e−βLs(w)Q(dw)EQ[e−βLs(W)].P^*_{W|S=s}(dw)=\frac{e^{-\beta L_s(w)}Q(dw)}{\mathbb E_Q[e^{-\beta L_s(W)}]}.PW∣S=s∗​(dw)=EQ​[e−βLs​(W)]e−βLs​(w)Q(dw)​.

The milestone list also records the Appendix D empirical-risk comparison with a fixed hypothesis, its identity D(δw∥Q)=−log⁡Q({w})D(\delta_w\Vert Q)=-\log Q(\{w\})D(δw​∥Q)=−logQ({w}) when the prior has positive mass at www, and the Gibbs generalization bound quoted in equation (28). Xu and Raginsky, 2017, pp. 6–7, 13

Expected population risk

The goal is Corollary 2. If W\mathcal WW is countable, 0≤ℓ≤10\le\ell\le10≤ℓ≤1, wow_owo​ achieves the minimum population risk, and Q({wo})>0Q(\{w_o\})>0Q({wo​})>0, then

E[Lμ(W)]≤inf⁡w∈WLμ(w)+1βlog⁡1Q({wo})+β2n.\mathbb E[L_\mu(W)]\le\inf_{w\in\mathcal W}L_\mu(w) +\frac1\beta\log\frac1{Q(\{w_o\})}+\frac\beta{2n}.E[Lμ​(W)]≤w∈Winf​Lμ​(w)+β1​logQ({wo​})1​+2nβ​.

The first excess term reflects the prior mass on a population-risk minimizer; the second is controlled by sample size and inverse temperature. The target keeps the infimum over the whole hypothesis space and the constants of equation (29). Xu and Raginsky, 2017, p. 7

Significance

Corollary 2 gives a quantitative way to choose a prior and temperature: a prior that puts more mass on a good hypothesis reduces the logarithmic term, while changing β\betaβ changes both terms in opposite directions. It also connects the optimization characterization of a randomized algorithm to the population risk that matters for learning. Without the empirical-risk comparison and the separate generalization estimate, optimizing the training objective alone would not give this population statement. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, pp. 6–7, 13

The cited paper proves Corollary 2 and Theorem 5; the present task is to supply machine-checked proofs of their faithful Lean statements. The Donsker–Varadhan inequality and a tilted-measure identity are already published and proved on the platform, and the basic sample-law and risk definitions are already published. The Gibbs optimization, the Appendix D comparisons, and the quoted bound (28) are posed here as new targets. This work would leave reusable definitions for randomized learning kernels, their Gibbs specialization, and objectives with potentially infinite divergence.

Difficulty

The Gibbs rule is defined separately at every sample, but a learning algorithm must be a measurable kernel on the entire sample space. Establishing the normalized density pointwise does not by itself establish this kernel property. The relaxed objective also combines an integral of empirical risk with a conditional divergence, either of which can be infinite before bounded-loss assumptions are imposed. Equation (28), which the paper attributes to earlier work, needs a sharp β/(2n)\beta/(2n)β/(2n) constant; the looser information bound discussed immediately before it has a different dependence on β\betaβ. These are separate mathematical obligations even though the final displayed inequality is short. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, pp. 6–7, 13

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents a sample as Fin n → Z, its law as Measure.pi, and a randomized learner as Kernel (Fin n → Z) W. Population and empirical risks come from the published LearnStability.Characterization.Setting definition. The Gibbs kernel is built by a normalized density over the probability prior QQQ; Theorem 5 explicitly asserts it is a Markov kernel. The relaxed objective takes values in R≥0∪{∞}\mathbb R_{\ge0}\cup\{\infty\}R≥0​∪{∞}, so an infinite KL cost is not lost through real conversion. Generalization error remains the real expectation of the population-risk minus empirical-risk difference. The stated loss bounds ensure those real expectations are meaningful in the bounded-loss results.

The paper assumes a nonnegative loss in its general setting and requires ℓ∈[0,1]\ell\in[0,1]ℓ∈[0,1] for the later bounds. The Lean statements add joint measurability of ℓ\ellℓ and n>0n>0n>0 explicitly. Corollary 2 also makes the named minimizer's defining property and positive prior mass explicit: countability alone does not ensure an attained infimum, and a zero prior mass makes the printed logarithmic bound infinite. Theorem 5 retains its general measurable hypothesis space and nonnegative loss; countability appears only where the paper invokes it. Theorem 5 states optimality over all Markov kernels, the displayed Gibbs formula, and, for each sample, uniqueness of the Gibbs distribution as the minimizer of the samplewise problem (C.12) of Appendix C. The goal concerns the Gibbs kernel's actual population risk, rather than only the existence of a minimizer of the relaxed objective.

Useful contributions include probability-kernel measurability, control of conditional divergence and its finite conversions, the fixed-hypothesis comparison, and the sharp bounded-loss generalization estimate. The point-mass KL identity and the extended objective can be reused in other Gibbs and PAC-Bayesian formalizations. Xu and Raginsky, 2017, pp. 2, 6–7, 13

Selected references

  • A. Xu and M. Raginsky, Information-Theoretic Analysis of Generalization Capability of Learning Algorithms, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30, 2017. arXiv:1705.07809v2
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Convex OptimizationFunctional AnalysisMachine Learning+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Kernel Distributionally Robust Optimization: Generalized Duality Theorem and Stochastic Approximation: The Worst-Case Risk over an RKHS Ambiguity Set Equals Its Support-Function DualResearch Paper

Motivation

Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) chooses a decision θ\thetaθ that minimizes the expected loss under the worst distribution in an ambiguity set K\mathcal KK of plausible distributions, min⁡θsup⁡P∈K∫l(θ,ξ) dP(ξ)\min_\theta\sup_{P\in\mathcal K}\int l(\theta,\xi)\,dP(\xi)minθ​supP∈K​∫l(θ,ξ)dP(ξ). It sits between stochastic optimization, which trusts a single distribution, and worst-case robust optimization, which trusts none. The inner supremum is a problem of moments, studied since Stieltjes and made computable by duality (Isii 1962; Shapiro 2001; Bertsimas and Popescu 2005). Existing tractable reformulations require the ambiguity set to be described by finitely many moments, a ϕ\phiϕ-divergence or a Wasserstein ball, and they usually require a structural property of the loss: affine or quadratic form, or a known Lipschitz constant.

Zhu, Jitkrittum, Diehl and Schölkopf (AISTATS 2021; arXiv:2006.06981) describe the ambiguity set through kernel mean embeddings: a distribution is represented by its mean in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, and the ambiguity set is the set of distributions whose embedding lies in a convex set C\mathcal CC of that space. Moment sets, MMD balls, scenario polytopes and the whole space (worst-case RO) all arise for suitable kernels and sets C\mathcal CC. Their Generalized Duality Theorem (Theorem 3.1) turns the inner worst-case problem into a minimization over a function of the RKHS that majorizes the loss, with no assumption on the loss beyond upper semicontinuity.

Setting

Let X\mathcal XX be a compact metric space (in the paper, a compact X⊂Rd\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^dX⊂Rd) with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra, and P\mathcal PP the set of Borel probability measures on X\mathcal XX. Let H\mathcal HH be a real Hilbert space and φ:X→H\varphi:\mathcal X\to\mathcal Hφ:X→H a continuous feature map; k(x,y)=⟨φ(x),φ(y)⟩Hk(x,y)=\langle\varphi(x),\varphi(y)\rangle_{\mathcal H}k(x,y)=⟨φ(x),φ(y)⟩H​ is then a continuous positive definite kernel, and an element f∈Hf\in\mathcal Hf∈H acts on X\mathcal XX by the reproducing property f(ξ)=⟨f,φ(ξ)⟩Hf(\xi)=\langle f,\varphi(\xi)\rangle_{\mathcal H}f(ξ)=⟨f,φ(ξ)⟩H​ (rkhsEval).

  • The mean embedding of P∈PP\in\mathcal PP∈P is μP=∫φ dP∈H\mu_P=\int\varphi\,dP\in\mathcal HμP​=∫φdP∈H (meanEmbedding).
  • For C⊆H\mathcal C\subseteq\mathcal HC⊆H, the ambiguity set is KC={P∈P:μP∈C}\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}=\{P\in\mathcal P:\mu_P\in\mathcal C\}KC​={P∈P:μP​∈C} (ambiguitySet).
  • The support function of C\mathcal CC is δC∗(f)=sup⁡μ∈C⟨f,μ⟩H∈[−∞,∞]\delta^*_{\mathcal C}(f)=\sup_{\mu\in\mathcal C}\langle f,\mu\rangle_{\mathcal H}\in[-\infty,\infty]δC∗​(f)=supμ∈C​⟨f,μ⟩H​∈[−∞,∞] (supportFun).
  • A loss is a function l:Θ×X→[−∞,∞)l:\Theta\times\mathcal X\to[-\infty,\infty)l:Θ×X→[−∞,∞), where Θ\ThetaΘ is an arbitrary set of decisions; ∫l dP\int l\,dP∫ldP is the extended-real expectation.

For fixed θ\thetaθ (written l=l(θ,⋅)l=l(\theta,\cdot)l=l(θ,⋅)), the primal inner problem (11) and the dual inner problem (12) are

(P)θ=sup⁡P∈KC∫l dP,(D)θ=inf⁡{f0+δC∗(f): f0∈R, f∈H, l(ξ)≤f0+f(ξ) ∀ξ∈X}\mathrm{(P)}_\theta=\sup_{P\in\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}}\int l\,dP,\qquad \mathrm{(D)}_\theta=\inf\Big\{f_0+\delta^*_{\mathcal C}(f):\ f_0\in\mathbb R,\ f\in\mathcal H,\ l(\xi)\le f_0+f(\xi)\ \forall\xi\in\mathcal X\Big\}(P)θ​=P∈KC​sup​∫ldP,(D)θ​=inf{f0​+δC∗​(f): f0​∈R, f∈H, l(ξ)≤f0​+f(ξ) ∀ξ∈X}

(primalValue, dualValue, with the constraint IsDualFeasible). Assumption 3.1 of the paper asks that each l(θ,⋅)l(\theta,\cdot)l(θ,⋅) be proper (not identically −∞-\infty−∞) and upper semicontinuous, that C\mathcal CC be closed and convex, and that ri(KC)≠∅\mathrm{ri}(\mathcal K_{\mathcal C})\neq\emptysetri(KC​)=∅.

The PDF prints no page numbers; every page cited in this mission is the PDF page of arXiv:2006.06981v3.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1 (Generalized Duality), p. 5

Under the hypotheses above, with KC≠∅\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}\ne\emptysetKC​=∅,

∀θ∈Θ:sup⁡P∈KC∫l(θ,ξ) dP(ξ)=inf⁡f0∈R,f∈Hl(θ,⋅)≤f0+ff0+δC∗(f),\forall\theta\in\Theta:\quad \sup_{P\in\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}}\int l(\theta,\xi)\,dP(\xi)=\inf_{\substack{f_0\in\mathbb R,\,f\in\mathcal H\\ l(\theta,\cdot)\le f_0+f}}f_0+\delta^*_{\mathcal C}(f),∀θ∈Θ:P∈KC​sup​∫l(θ,ξ)dP(ξ)=f0​∈R,f∈Hl(θ,⋅)≤f0​+f​inf​f0​+δC∗​(f),

and consequently (P)=inf⁡θ(P)θ=inf⁡θ(D)θ=(D)\mathrm{(P)}=\inf_\theta\mathrm{(P)}_\theta=\inf_\theta\mathrm{(D)}_\theta=\mathrm{(D)}(P)=infθ​(P)θ​=infθ​(D)θ​=(D), the equality of the Kernel DRO problem (2) and its dual (4).

Milestones (the proof of Proposition A.1, pp. 13–15, and Appendix D, pp. 22–23)

  1. The reproducing identity ∫f dP=⟨f,μP⟩H\int f\,dP=\langle f,\mu_P\rangle_{\mathcal H}∫fdP=⟨f,μP​⟩H​ (p. 13).
  2. Lemma D.1: ∫(l−f0−f) dP≤0\int(l-f_0-f)\,dP\le0∫(l−f0​−f)dP≤0 for all PPP iff l≤f0+fl\le f_0+fl≤f0​+f on X\mathcal XX.
  3. Weak duality: ∫l dP≤f0+δC∗(f)\int l\,dP\le f_0+\delta^*_{\mathcal C}(f)∫ldP≤f0​+δC∗​(f) for P∈KCP\in\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}P∈KC​ and feasible (f0,f)(f_0,f)(f0​,f) (p. 6).
  4. Lemmas D.2–D.4: T(P)={μP}\mathcal T(\mathcal P)=\{\mu_P\}T(P)={μP​}, C∩T(P)\mathcal C\cap\mathcal T(\mathcal P)C∩T(P) and KC\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}KC​ are compact.
  5. Primal attainment (p. 15), via the upper semicontinuity of P↦∫l dPP\mapsto\int l\,dPP↦∫ldP (a supporting lemma the paper uses without stating).
  6. The separation (14), the sign τ<0\tau<0τ<0 with the rescaled dual feasible point, and (D)≤(P)+ϵ\mathrm{(D)}\le\mathrm{(P)}+\epsilon(D)≤(P)+ϵ (p. 15).
  7. Proposition A.1: (P)θ=(D)θ\mathrm{(P)}_\theta=\mathrm{(D)}_\theta(P)θ​=(D)θ​ (p. 13).

Companions

Lemma A.2 (complementarity (19)), Corollary 3.1.3 (the optimal majorant interpolates lll P∗P^*P∗-a.e.), the support function 1N∑if(ξi)+ϵ∥f∥H\frac1N\sum_i f(\xi_i)+\epsilon\|f\|_{\mathcal H}N1​∑i​f(ξi​)+ϵ∥f∥H​ of the RKHS norm ball (Table 1), and the weak-duality content of Corollary 3.1.1 for integral probability metrics.

Significance

The theorem replaces an optimization over probability measures by a semi-infinite program over (f0,f)∈R×H(f_0,f)\in\mathbb R\times\mathcal H(f0​,f)∈R×H, whose objective is explicit for the common choices of C\mathcal CC (Table 1). The majorant f0+ff_0+ff0​+f needs no Lipschitz constant and no parametric form of the loss, and the dual variable f∗f^*f∗ doubles as a witness function for the MMD. This is the basis of the paper's batch and stochastic functional gradient algorithms, and it places moment-based DRO, scenario optimization, MMD-ball DRO and worst-case RO in one framework.

The result is proved on paper; it has no machine-checked proof that we know of. Formalizing it builds the duality theory of moment problems with infinitely many moment constraints, on top of Mathlib's Hilbert spaces, Bochner integrals and the weak topology on probability measures. The formal statements also fix points the paper leaves loose: the infimum in place of the printed "min", the reading of the Slater condition, and the role of the continuity of the kernel.

Difficulty

Weak duality is a two-line computation. The work is strong duality. The paper's route separates the cone A={(∫1 dP,∫φ dP,∫l dP):P∈co(P)}A=\{(\int1\,dP,\int\varphi\,dP,\int l\,dP):P\in\mathrm{co}(\mathcal P)\}A={(∫1dP,∫φdP,∫ldP):P∈co(P)} from Bϵ={(1,μ,t+ϵ):μ∈C}B_\epsilon=\{(1,\mu,t+\epsilon):\mu\in\mathcal C\}Bϵ​={(1,μ,t+ϵ):μ∈C} in R×H×R\mathbb R\times\mathcal H\times\mathbb RR×H×R. A Hahn–Banach strict separation needs one set compact or the two at positive distance, and AAA is neither obviously closed nor bounded. The step goes through only because KC\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}KC​ is compact in the weak topology and P↦∫l dPP\mapsto\int l\,dPP↦∫ldP is upper semicontinuous, which also gives primal attainment and the sign τ<0\tau<0τ<0. The loss may take the value −∞-\infty−∞, so every expectation lives in [−∞,∞)[-\infty,\infty)[−∞,∞). The infinite primal case also needs an argument of its own.

Formalization scope

  • X\mathcal XX is a compact metric space with a Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra; a compact subset of Rd\mathbb R^dRd is an instance. P\mathcal PP is ProbabilityMeasure X with its topology of weak convergence; the paper's MMD topology agrees with it for a universal continuous kernel.
  • The RKHS is in feature-map form: a real Hilbert space H\mathcal HH and a continuous φ\varphiφ. Continuity of the kernel is not written in Assumption 3.1 but is used by Appendix D.
  • Losses are X → EReal, upper semicontinuous, never +∞+\infty+∞, and not identically −∞-\infty−∞. Expectations use the published definition WassersteinDRO.Duality.erealExpectation, which for such losses is the usual ∫l dP∈[−∞,∞)\int l\,dP\in[-\infty,\infty)∫ldP∈[−∞,∞).
  • Support function, primal and dual values are extended reals. δ∅∗=−∞\delta^*_\emptyset=-\inftyδ∅∗​=−∞; δH∗(f)=+∞\delta^*_{\mathcal H}(f)=+\inftyδH∗​(f)=+∞ for f≠0f\ne0f=0; an empty ambiguity set gives primal value −∞-\infty−∞; an infeasible dual gives +∞+\infty+∞. The sum f0+δC∗(f)f_0+\delta^*_{\mathcal C}(f)f0​+δC∗​(f) adds a real to an extended real, so +∞+(−∞)+\infty+(-\infty)+∞+(−∞) never occurs.
  • The Slater clause ri(KC)≠∅\mathrm{ri}(\mathcal K_{\mathcal C})\ne\emptysetri(KC​)=∅ names no topology on measures and is used only to obtain a primal solution (p. 15). It is read as KC≠∅\mathcal K_{\mathcal C}\ne\emptysetKC​=∅, which it implies under any reading, so the formal goal is at least as strong as the paper's.
  • Every printed "min" is read as an infimum. Dual attainment is not proved and can fail: for X=[0,1]\mathcal X=[0,1]X=[0,1], φ(x)=x\varphi(x)=xφ(x)=x, C=(−∞,0]\mathcal C=(-\infty,0]C=(−∞,0] and l(x)=xl(x)=\sqrt xl(x)=x​, the dual infimum 000 is not attained.
  • The dual variable ranges over H\mathcal HH, never over arbitrary functions on X\mathcal XX. Over all bounded functions, the choice f=lf=lf=l would make the duality trivial (Example 3.3). The goal is also not closed by unfolding: for C=H\mathcal C=\mathcal HC=H it says sup⁡P∫l dP=sup⁡ξl(ξ)\sup_P\int l\,dP=\sup_\xi l(\xi)supP​∫ldP=supξ​l(ξ), worst-case RO.
  • Corollary 3.1.2 (p. 6) is not stated: it is false under Assumption 3.1 alone (for C=H\mathcal C=\mathcal HC=H and l=1{0}l=\mathbf 1_{\{0\}}l=1{0}​, (2) equals 111 while (6) equals 000).

Reusable pieces: the kernel mean embedding and its continuity on ProbabilityMeasure X, compactness of RKHS ambiguity sets, and the upper semicontinuity of P↦∫l dPP\mapsto\int l\,dPP↦∫ldP for upper semicontinuous lll (a portmanteau-type fact not yet in Mathlib). Proofs of any milestone are welcome. So are support-function computations for the other rows of Tables 1 and 3.

Selected references

  • J.-J. Zhu, W. Jitkrittum, M. Diehl, B. Schölkopf, Kernel Distributionally Robust Optimization: Generalized Duality Theorem and Stochastic Approximation, AISTATS 2021 (PMLR 130); cited here as arXiv:2006.06981v3, 2021. https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.06981
  • A. Shapiro, On duality theory of conic linear problems, in Semi-Infinite Programming, Kluwer, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3403-4_7
  • K. Isii, On sharpness of Tchebycheff-type inequalities, Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 14, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02868641
  • D. Bertsimas, I. Popescu, Optimal inequalities in probability theory: a convex optimization approach, SIAM Journal on Optimization 15(3), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623401399903
  • A. Gretton, K. Borgwardt, M. Rasch, B. Schölkopf, A. Smola, A kernel two-sample test, Journal of Machine Learning Research 13, 2012. https://jmlr.org/papers/v13/gretton12a.html
  • A. Ben-Tal, L. El Ghaoui, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization, Princeton University Press, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400831050
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Information TheoryMachine LearningStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Information-Theoretic Analysis of Generalization Capability of Learning Algorithms I: The Expected Generalization Error Is at Most √(2σ²I(S;W)/n) (Theorem 1)Research Paper

Motivation

A learning algorithm trained on a finite sample generalizes when its empirical risk on that sample is close to its risk on fresh data. Classical guarantees come from uniform convergence over the hypothesis class (VC dimension, Rademacher complexity) or from algorithmic stability, such as uniform stability (Bousquet and Elisseeff, 2002) and on-average stability (Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2010). Both families look at the class or at the algorithm's worst-case sensitivity, not at how much the trained hypothesis actually depends on the data it was trained on.

Russo and Zou (arXiv:1511.05219, 2016) bounded the bias of adaptive data analysis by mutual information, and Xu and Raginsky (arXiv:1705.07809, NIPS 2017) turned this into a generalization bound for learning algorithms: the expected generalization error is at most 2σ2I(S;W)/n\sqrt{2\sigma^2 I(S;W)/n}2σ2I(S;W)/n​, where I(S;W)I(S;W)I(S;W) is the mutual information between the training sample and the output hypothesis. This bound started the line of information-theoretic generalization bounds, later refined to individual-sample mutual information (Bu, Zou and Veeravalli, 2020), conditional mutual information (Steinke and Zakynthinou, 2020) and chaining variants (Asadi, Abbe and Verdú, 2018).

Timeline:

  • 2016, Russo and Zou: bias of adaptive analysis bounded by I(ΛW(S);W)I(\Lambda_{\mathsf W}(S);W)I(ΛW​(S);W), the information carried by the vector of empirical risks, for a finite hypothesis space.
  • 2017, Xu and Raginsky: the bound with the input–output mutual information I(S;W)I(S;W)I(S;W), for arbitrary hypothesis spaces (Theorem 1); high-probability versions and an analysis of the Gibbs algorithm.
  • 2018–2020: chaining, individual-sample and conditional mutual information refinements.

Setting

There is an instance space Z\mathsf ZZ, a hypothesis space W\mathsf WW and a nonnegative loss ℓ:W×Z→R+\ell:\mathsf W\times\mathsf Z\to\mathbb R_+ℓ:W×Z→R+​, written ℓ : W → Z → ℝ in Lean. Data are drawn from an unknown probability measure μ\muμ on Z\mathsf ZZ; a dataset of size nnn is an i.i.d. sample S=(Z1,…,Zn)∼μ⊗nS=(Z_1,\dots,Z_n)\sim\mu^{\otimes n}S=(Z1​,…,Zn​)∼μ⊗n (sampleLaw μ n).

A learning algorithm is a Markov kernel PW∣SP_{W|S}PW∣S​ (κ : Kernel (Fin n → Z) W): given the dataset, it outputs a random hypothesis WWW. The pair (S,W)(S,W)(S,W) has joint law PS,W=μ⊗n⊗PW∣SP_{S,W}=\mu^{\otimes n}\otimes P_{W|S}PS,W​=μ⊗n⊗PW∣S​ (sampleLaw μ n ⊗ₘ κ), with marginals PS=μ⊗nP_S=\mu^{\otimes n}PS​=μ⊗n and PWP_WPW​.

The population risk and the empirical risk of a hypothesis www are

Lμ(w)=∫Zℓ(w,z) μ(dz),LS(w)=1n∑i=1nℓ(w,Zi)L_\mu(w)=\int_{\mathsf Z}\ell(w,z)\,\mu(dz),\qquad L_S(w)=\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n \ell(w,Z_i)Lμ​(w)=∫Z​ℓ(w,z)μ(dz),LS​(w)=n1​i=1∑n​ℓ(w,Zi​)

(risk ℓ μ w, empRisk ℓ s w). The expected generalization error is

gen(μ,PW∣S)=E[Lμ(W)−LS(W)],\mathrm{gen}(\mu,P_{W|S})=\mathbb E\big[L_\mu(W)-L_S(W)\big],gen(μ,PW∣S​)=E[Lμ​(W)−LS​(W)],

the expectation taken under PS,WP_{S,W}PS,W​ (genError ℓ μ κ).

The mutual information of a pair (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y) with joint law PX,YP_{X,Y}PX,Y​ is the relative entropy I(X;Y)=D(PX,Y ∥ PX⊗PY)∈[0,∞]I(X;Y)=D(P_{X,Y}\,\|\,P_X\otimes P_Y)\in[0,\infty]I(X;Y)=D(PX,Y​∥PX​⊗PY​)∈[0,∞] (mutualInfo). A real random variable UUU is σ\sigmaσ-subgaussian if log⁡E[eλ(U−EU)]≤λ2σ2/2\log\mathbb E[e^{\lambda(U-\mathbb EU)}]\le\lambda^2\sigma^2/2logE[eλ(U−EU)]≤λ2σ2/2 for all λ∈R\lambda\in\mathbb Rλ∈R.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 4)

If ℓ(w,Z)\ell(w,Z)ℓ(w,Z) is σ\sigmaσ-subgaussian under μ\muμ for every w∈Ww\in\mathsf Ww∈W, then

∣gen(μ,PW∣S)∣≤2σ2n I(S;W).\big|\mathrm{gen}(\mu,P_{W|S})\big|\le\sqrt{\frac{2\sigma^2}{n}\,I(S;W)} .​gen(μ,PW∣S​)​≤n2σ2​I(S;W)​.

The statement fixes no structure on W\mathsf WW (it may be uncountable) and no bound on the loss beyond subgaussianity.

Milestones

  1. (A.1), Donsker–Varadhan (p. 11), the inequality ∫F dπ−D(π∥ρ)≤log⁡∫eF dρ\int F\,d\pi-D(\pi\|\rho)\le\log\int e^F\,d\rho∫Fdπ−D(π∥ρ)≤log∫eFdρ. Already proved on the platform and referenced.
  2. Lemma 1 (p. 3), the decoupling estimate: if f(Xˉ,Yˉ)f(\bar X,\bar Y)f(Xˉ,Yˉ) is σ\sigmaσ-subgaussian under PX⊗PYP_X\otimes P_YPX​⊗PY​, then
∣Ef(X,Y)−Ef(Xˉ,Yˉ)∣≤2σ2I(X;Y).\big|\mathbb E f(X,Y)-\mathbb E f(\bar X,\bar Y)\big|\le\sqrt{2\sigma^2 I(X;Y)} .​Ef(X,Y)−Ef(Xˉ,Yˉ)​≤2σ2I(X;Y)​.
  1. Subgaussianity of the empirical risk (§3.2, p. 4): for every www, LS(w)−Lμ(w)L_S(w)-L_\mu(w)LS​(w)−Lμ​(w) is σ/n\sigma/\sqrt nσ/n​-subgaussian under μ⊗n\mu^{\otimes n}μ⊗n.
  2. The mixture step (§3.2, p. 4, corrected): under PS⊗PWP_S\otimes P_WPS​⊗PW​, f(Sˉ,Wˉ)=LSˉ(Wˉ)−Lμ(Wˉ)f(\bar S,\bar W)=L_{\bar S}(\bar W)-L_\mu(\bar W)f(Sˉ,Wˉ)=LSˉ​(Wˉ)−Lμ​(Wˉ) is σ/n\sigma/\sqrt nσ/n​-subgaussian with mean 000.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 makes generalization a property of the dependence between data and output rather than of the size of the hypothesis class. It applies to randomized algorithms on uncountable or infinite-dimensional hypothesis spaces, where uniform convergence gives nothing, and to unbounded subgaussian losses. Any mechanism that limits I(S;W)I(S;W)I(S;W), such as noise injection, differential privacy, compression or relative-entropy regularization, inherits a generalization guarantee. A loss with values in [a,b][a,b][a,b] is (b−a)/2(b-a)/2(b−a)/2-subgaussian for every μ\muμ, so the theorem covers all bounded losses. The bound is also the template for the later refinements listed above, which share Lemma 1's decoupling argument.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known. A formalization supplies a reusable statement of mutual information as a relative entropy of a joint law on general measurable spaces, a decoupling lemma for subgaussian functions, and the mixture argument for subgaussian families, all of which recur in the later literature. It also settles a point the paper leaves loose: the printed proof applies Lemma 1 to the uncentred empirical risk, which is not subgaussian in general; the milestones state the corrected step.

Difficulty

The two halves of the proof are short on paper, but each step that "follows" uses a fact the page does not state. The decoupling estimate needs Ef(X,Y)\mathbb E f(X,Y)Ef(X,Y) to be finite, which holds only because finite relative entropy and exponential integrability under the product together force integrability under the joint law. The mixture step needs the moment-generating-function bound of each section w↦f(⋅,w)w\mapsto f(\cdot,w)w↦f(⋅,w) to integrate over PWP_WPW​, which requires joint measurability and the centring of every section at its own mean: the uncentred empirical risk LSˉ(Wˉ)L_{\bar S}(\bar W)LSˉ​(Wˉ) mixes laws with different means and is not subgaussian.

A natural first attempt applies Lemma 1 directly to f(s,w)=Ls(w)f(s,w)=L_s(w)f(s,w)=Ls​(w) as printed; it fails on the example ℓ(w,z)=w\ell(w,z)=wℓ(w,z)=w with WWW uniform on {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} and independent of SSS.

Formalization scope

  • Objects. The sample law, LμL_\muLμ​ and LSL_SLS​ are reused from the published LearnStability.Characterization.Setting. This mission defines mutualInfo P := klDiv P (P.fst.prod P.snd) (values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]) and genError, the integral of the pointwise difference Lμ(w)−Ls(w)L_\mu(w)-L_s(w)Lμ​(w)−Ls​(w) under sampleLaw μ n ⊗ₘ κ. Samples are Fin n → Z; the algorithm is a Markov kernel.
  • Subgaussianity is Mathlib's HasSubgaussianMGF of the centred variable, whose parameter is the variance proxy: σ2\sigma^2σ2 for the loss, σ2/n\sigma^2/nσ2/n for the empirical risk.
  • Added hypotheses, all implicit on the page: n≥1n\ge1n≥1 (the bound divides by nnn); joint measurability of ℓ\ellℓ (so that Lμ(W)L_\mu(W)Lμ​(W) and LS(W)L_S(W)LS​(W) are random variables); and I≠∞I\ne\inftyI=∞ in Lemma 1 and Theorem 1, because Lean's conversion of ∞\infty∞ to a real number gives 000, which would turn the page's vacuous bound into a false claim. The page's nonnegativity of ℓ\ellℓ is kept. No integrability hypothesis on fff or on the losses is assumed beyond subgaussianity.
  • Correction of the print. The page says that f(Sˉ,Wˉ)=LSˉ(Wˉ)f(\bar S,\bar W)=L_{\bar S}(\bar W)f(Sˉ,Wˉ)=LSˉ​(Wˉ) is σ/n\sigma/\sqrt nσ/n​-subgaussian; milestone 4 states it for the centred LSˉ(Wˉ)−Lμ(Wˉ)L_{\bar S}(\bar W)-L_\mu(\bar W)LSˉ​(Wˉ)−Lμ​(Wˉ), together with its mean being 000. Equation (9) is not posed separately.
  • Ruled out. The goal is stated for genError and the mutual information of the algorithm's own joint law; a version through Lemma 1's abstract pair (Xˉ,Yˉ)(\bar X,\bar Y)(Xˉ,Yˉ), through I(ΛW(S);W)I(\Lambda_{\mathsf W}(S);W)I(ΛW​(S);W) (Theorem 2, out of scope), or with III truncated to a real number would not be this theorem.
  • Infrastructure. Integrability transfer from PX⊗PYP_X\otimes P_YPX​⊗PY​ to PX,YP_{X,Y}PX,Y​ under finite relative entropy; sums of independent subgaussian variables on Measure.pi (Mathlib has HasSubgaussianMGF.sum_of_iIndepFun); mixtures of mean-zero subgaussian families under a product measure. These are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of each are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Xu, M. Raginsky, Information-theoretic analysis of generalization capability of learning algorithms, NIPS 2017; arXiv:1705.07809v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.07809
  • D. Russo, J. Zou, Controlling bias in adaptive data analysis using information theory, AISTATS 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.05219
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, O. Shamir, N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, Learnability, stability and uniform convergence, JMLR 11, 2010. https://jmlr.org/papers/v11/shalev-shwartz10a.html
  • O. Bousquet, A. Elisseeff, Stability and generalization, JMLR 2, 2002. https://www.jmlr.org/papers/v2/bousquet02a.html
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities, Oxford University Press, 2013 (Donsker–Varadhan, Cor. 4.15). https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
  • A. Asadi, E. Abbe, S. Verdú, Chaining mutual information and tightening generalization bounds, NeurIPS 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03803
  • Y. Bu, S. Zou, V. Veeravalli, Tightening mutual information based bounds on generalization error, IEEE JSAIT 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/1901.04609
  • T. Steinke, L. Zakynthinou, Reasoning about generalization via conditional mutual information, COLT 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.09122
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Bandit AlgorithmsInformation TheoryMachine Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

A Tutorial on Thompson Sampling I: Any Algorithm Whose Information Ratio Is at Most Γ̄ Has Expected Regret at Most √(Γ̄·H(x*)·T)Research Paper

Motivation

Thompson sampling (TS) chooses each action with the posterior probability that it is optimal. Its practical success in online advertising, recommendation and experimentation raised the question of why it works and when it does not. The tutorial of Russo, Van Roy, Kazerouni, Osband and Wen (Found. Trends Mach. Learn. 11(1), 2018) answers part of that question in §8.1 with an information-theoretic regret bound due to Russo and Van Roy (JMLR 17, 2016). The bound applies to every algorithm, not only TS. It reduces the analysis of a particular algorithm to one quantity, the information ratio: the squared expected regret of a period divided by the information the period yields about the optimal action.

Timeline:

  • 2016: Russo and Van Roy, An information-theoretic analysis of Thompson sampling (JMLR 17), introduce the information ratio with the regret and the mutual information both conditioned on a realised history, and prove the regret bound and bounds on the ratio for TS (for example ∣X∣/2|\mathcal X|/2∣X∣/2 for ∣X∣|\mathcal X|∣X∣-armed bandits and d/2d/2d/2 for linear bandits).
  • 2018: Russo and Van Roy, Learning to optimize via information-directed sampling (Oper. Res. 66), design algorithms that minimise the information ratio directly.
  • 2018: Russo and Van Roy, Satisficing in time-sensitive bandit learning (arXiv:1803.02855), observe that the same bounds hold with the information ratio averaged over histories. This is the form (8.7) the tutorial uses (footnote 1, p. 75).
  • 2018: the tutorial gives the bound as (8.8), with a three-line proof on p. 76 whose last step is cited from the 2016 paper.

Setting

An agent acts in periods t=1,2,…t=1,2,\dotst=1,2,…. In each period it selects an action xtx_txt​ from a finite set X\mathcal XX and observes an outcome yty_tyt​ from a finite set Y\mathcal YY. An unknown parameter θ\thetaθ, taking values in a measurable space Θ\ThetaΘ, has a prior distribution PPP. Given θ\thetaθ and the action xxx, the outcome is drawn from a probability vector qθ(⋅∣x)q_\theta(\cdot\mid x)qθ​(⋅∣x) that depends measurably on θ\thetaθ. The agent receives the reward r(yt)r(y_t)r(yt​) for a known function rrr. The mean reward of action xxx is

μ(x,θ)=∑yqθ(y∣x) r(y),\mu(x,\theta)=\sum_{y}q_\theta(y\mid x)\,r(y),μ(x,θ)=y∑​qθ​(y∣x)r(y),

and the optimal action x∗=x∗(θ)x^*=x^*(\theta)x∗=x∗(θ) is a measurable selector of arg⁡max⁡xμ(x,θ)\arg\max_x\mu(x,\theta)argmaxx​μ(x,θ). Ties may be broken in any measurable way, and every result holds for every selector.

The history Ht\mathbb H_tHt​ is the list (x1,y1),…,(xt,yt)(x_1,y_1),\dots,(x_t,y_t)(x1​,y1​),…,(xt​,yt​). An algorithm π\piπ assigns to every history a probability vector over X\mathcal XX, from which the next action is drawn. The joint law of (θ,Ht)(\theta,\mathbb H_t)(θ,Ht​) is P(dθ)∏s≤tπ(xs∣Hs−1) qθ(ys∣xs)P(d\theta)\prod_{s\le t}\pi(x_s\mid\mathbb H_{s-1})\,q_\theta(y_s\mid x_s)P(dθ)∏s≤t​π(xs​∣Hs−1​)qθ​(ys​∣xs​), and every expectation below is taken under it. The expected cumulative regret, or Bayesian regret, is

E[Regret(T)]=E[∑t=1T(μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt,θ))].\mathbb E[\mathrm{Regret}(T)]=\mathbb E\Big[\sum_{t=1}^T\big(\mu(x^*,\theta)-\mu(x_t,\theta)\big)\Big].E[Regret(T)]=E[t=1∑T​(μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt​,θ))].

The entropy of the prior distribution of x∗x^*x∗ is H(x∗)=−∑aP(x∗=a)log⁡P(x∗=a)H(x^*)=-\sum_a\mathbb P(x^*=a)\log\mathbb P(x^*=a)H(x∗)=−∑a​P(x∗=a)logP(x∗=a). The conditional mutual information I(x∗;(xt,yt)∣Ht−1)I(x^*;(x_t,y_t)\mid\mathbb H_{t-1})I(x∗;(xt​,yt​)∣Ht−1​) is the expected information that the period-ttt observation carries about x∗x^*x∗ given the past, averaged over the past. The information ratio of period ttt is (8.7):

Γt=(E[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt,θ)])2I(x∗;(xt,yt)∣Ht−1).\Gamma_t=\frac{\big(\mathbb E[\mu(x^*,\theta)-\mu(x_t,\theta)]\big)^2}{I(x^*;(x_t,y_t)\mid\mathbb H_{t-1})}.Γt​=I(x∗;(xt​,yt​)∣Ht−1​)(E[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt​,θ)])2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: (8.8)

For every model and every algorithm, every horizon TTT and every Γˉ≥0\bar\Gamma\ge0Γˉ≥0 with (E[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt,θ)])2≤Γˉ I(x∗;(xt,yt)∣Ht−1)\big(\mathbb E[\mu(x^*,\theta)-\mu(x_t,\theta)]\big)^2\le\bar\Gamma\,I(x^*;(x_t,y_t)\mid\mathbb H_{t-1})(E[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt​,θ)])2≤ΓˉI(x∗;(xt​,yt​)∣Ht−1​) for t=1,…,Tt=1,\dots,Tt=1,…,T,

E[Regret(T)]≤Γˉ H(x∗) T.\mathbb E[\mathrm{Regret}(T)]\le\sqrt{\bar\Gamma\,H(x^*)\,T}.E[Regret(T)]≤ΓˉH(x∗)T​.

When every mutual information is positive, the least such Γˉ\bar\GammaΓˉ is max⁡t≤TΓt\max_{t\le T}\Gamma_tmaxt≤T​Γt​, which is the tutorial's Γˉ\bar\GammaΓˉ. A companion theorem states that literal form under the positivity hypothesis.

Milestones, in the order of the p. 76 proof

  1. Regret is additive over periods:
E[Regret(T)]=∑t=1TE[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt,θ)].\mathbb E[\mathrm{Regret}(T)]=\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb E[\mu(x^*,\theta)-\mu(x_t,\theta)].E[Regret(T)]=t=1∑T​E[μ(x∗,θ)−μ(xt​,θ)].
  1. The Jensen (Cauchy–Schwarz) step: if δt2≤ΓˉIt\delta_t^2\le\bar\Gamma I_tδt2​≤ΓˉIt​ for every ttt and ∑tIt≤H\sum_tI_t\le H∑t​It​≤H, then ∑tδt≤TΓˉH\sum_t\delta_t\le\sqrt{T\bar\Gamma H}∑t​δt​≤TΓˉH​. This milestone is the published, proved theorem BanditAlgorithm.information_ratio_cumulative_bound_signed. It states the step in the form the proof uses, with the entropy budget as a hypothesis.
  2. The entropy budget:
∑t=1TI(x∗;(xt,yt)∣Ht−1)≤H(x∗).\sum_{t=1}^T I\big(x^*;(x_t,y_t)\mid\mathbb H_{t-1}\big)\le H(x^*).t=1∑T​I(x∗;(xt​,yt​)∣Ht−1​)≤H(x∗).

Significance

The result. (8.8) separates the regret analysis of an algorithm into two independent problems. One is a per-period bound on the information ratio, which depends on the structure of the problem and the algorithm. The other is the entropy of the optimal action, which depends only on the prior. Combined with the bound Γˉ≤∣X∣/2\bar\Gamma\le|\mathcal X|/2Γˉ≤∣X∣/2 that Russo and Van Roy (2016) prove for TS on ∣X∣|\mathcal X|∣X∣-armed bandits, and with H(x∗)≤log⁡∣X∣H(x^*)\le\log|\mathcal X|H(x∗)≤log∣X∣, it gives ∣X∣ Tlog⁡∣X∣/2\sqrt{|\mathcal X|\,T\log|\mathcal X|/2}∣X∣Tlog∣X∣/2​. On the shortest-path problem of p. 76, Γˉ≤d/2\bar\Gamma\le d/2Γˉ≤d/2 makes the regret depend on the number ddd of edges and on H(x∗)H(x^*)H(x∗), not on the exponentially large number of paths. The same inequality is the design criterion of information-directed sampling, which chooses actions to minimise the ratio.

Formalizing it. The bound and its proof are known. The work here is to make the probabilistic model explicit, with a general parameter space, an outcome kernel and randomized algorithms; to formalize the per-period decomposition of the regret and the chain-rule argument behind the entropy budget, which the tutorial cites rather than proves; and to obtain (8.8) for every algorithm in one statement. The Proved platform results for Lattimore and Szepesvári's Bayesian adversarial bandit (Theorem 36.5 and its chain-rule lemmas) are about a different model: one algorithm (TS), the best arm in hindsight of a reward matrix, and the budget log⁡k\log klogk. To our knowledge, (8.8) itself has not been formalized.

Difficulty

The Cauchy–Schwarz step is elementary and already proved on the platform. Milestone 1 is bookkeeping: the cumulative regret integrates over histories of length TTT, while the period-ttt term integrates over histories of length ttt, and later periods must be integrated out.

The substance is the entropy budget. The obvious attempt bounds each period's information by H(x∗)H(x^*)H(x∗), which loses a factor TTT. The bound is uniform in TTT only because the per-period informations telescope: their sum is the information that the whole history carries about x∗x^*x∗, which is at most the entropy of x∗x^*x∗. Each step requires conditional distributions of x∗x^*x∗ given histories, where θ\thetaθ lives in a general measurable space and is integrated against the prior. Zero-probability histories must also be handled consistently with the convention 0log⁡0=00\log0=00log0=0.

Formalization scope

  • X\mathcal XX and Y\mathcal YY are finite types; Θ\ThetaΘ is an arbitrary measurable space with a probability measure PPP. The tutorial allows infinite action sets and general outcomes. The finite specialization makes H(x∗)H(x^*)H(x∗) and every mutual information a finite sum. The kernel qθ(⋅∣x)q_\theta(\cdot\mid x)qθ​(⋅∣x) of §4 replaces the noise representation yt=g(xt,θ,wt)y_t=g(x_t,\theta,w_t)yt​=g(xt​,θ,wt​) of p. 70; both describe the same laws.
  • Standing hypotheses: qθ(y∣x)≥0q_\theta(y\mid x)\ge0qθ​(y∣x)≥0, ∑yqθ(y∣x)=1\sum_yq_\theta(y\mid x)=1∑y​qθ​(y∣x)=1, measurability of θ↦qθ(y∣x)\theta\mapsto q_\theta(y\mid x)θ↦qθ​(y∣x), measurability of the level sets of x∗x^*x∗, and μ(x,θ)≤μ(x∗(θ),θ)\mu(x,\theta)\le\mu(x^*(\theta),\theta)μ(x,θ)≤μ(x∗(θ),θ). They make every integrand bounded and measurable, so no integrability hypothesis is added.
  • An algorithm is a behavioural policy, giving a probability vector over actions for each history. Under perfect recall this is equivalent to an algorithm with internal randomization. Periods are 0-based in Lean: Lean period sss is tutorial period t=s+1t=s+1t=s+1.
  • Logarithms are natural in both III and HHH. The conditional mutual information is defined directly as an average of Kullback–Leibler divergences, with joint probabilities. It is not defined as a difference of unconditional mutual informations: that would make the chain rule true by definition and empty milestone 3. Γt\Gamma_tΓt​ is never written as a quotient in the goal, so a period with zero information cannot turn the bound into one with Γˉ=0\bar\Gamma=0Γˉ=0.
  • Needed infrastructure: marginalisation over later periods of the history law, the chain rule of conditional mutual information for finite variables averaged against a general prior, and I(x∗;HT)≤H(x∗)I(x^*;\mathbb H_T)\le H(x^*)I(x∗;HT​)≤H(x∗). The Proved platform results InformationTheory.kernel_average_categorical_kl_le_marginal_entropy and its _general variant (average KL to the mixture is at most the mixture's entropy), and the adversarial-bandit lemmas BanditAlgorithm.bayesian_ts_conditional_information_gain_chain_rule and bayesian_history_mutualInformation_endpoint_bound, are related tools. A chain-rule library for this history model would be reusable beyond this mission, for example for information-directed sampling. Proofs of auxiliary lemmas are welcome.

The tutorial's argument is on pp. 75–76. The tutorial cites Russo and Van Roy (2016) for the original results, including the entropy budget.

Selected references

  • D. J. Russo, B. Van Roy, A. Kazerouni, I. Osband, Z. Wen, A Tutorial on Thompson Sampling, Foundations and Trends in Machine Learning 11(1):1–96, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1561/2200000070
  • D. Russo, B. Van Roy, An Information-Theoretic Analysis of Thompson Sampling, Journal of Machine Learning Research 17(68):1–30, 2016. https://jmlr.org/papers/v17/14-087.html (arXiv: https://arxiv.org/abs/1403.5341)
  • D. Russo, B. Van Roy, Learning to Optimize via Information-Directed Sampling, Operations Research 66(1):230–252, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1663
  • D. Russo, B. Van Roy, Satisficing in Time-Sensitive Bandit Learning, arXiv preprint, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.02855
  • T. Lattimore, C. Szepesvári, Bandit Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2020, Chapter 36. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108571401
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Operations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimality Gap of Constant-Order Policies Decays Exponentially in the Lead Time for Lost Sales Models: C(π_r∞)/OPT(L) ≤ 1 + h((1−γ)g)⁻¹(E[D] − r∞ + (eϑ(L+1))⁻¹)γ^{L+1} for Every Lead Time L ≥ 1Research Paper

Why lost-sales inventory with lead times matters

In many retail and spare-parts settings, demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backlogged, and replenishment orders arrive only after a positive lead time. The resulting lost-sales inventory model is a basic model of inventory theory. Its optimal policy depends on the whole pipeline of outstanding orders, so dynamic programming over that state becomes intractable as the lead time grows. This is why the model is often replaced by its backlogged counterpart, even when that approximation is poor (Bijvank and Vis, 2011).

Simple heuristics are therefore of practical interest. The simplest is the constant-order policy, which orders the same amount in every period regardless of the state. Reiman (2004, unpublished manuscript) showed that the best constant-order policy sometimes outperforms the base-stock policy, and Goldberg, Katz-Rogozhnikov, Lu, Sharma and Squillante (arXiv:1211.4063, Math. Oper. Res. 2016) proved that it is asymptotically optimal as the lead time grows, with a gap that decays polynomially in the lead time. Xin and Goldberg (arXiv:1409.1499v2, Oper. Res. 2016) proved that for the infinite-horizon average-cost problem the gap actually decays exponentially, with an explicit rate and explicit constants. This mission formalizes that result.

Timeline:

  • 1958: Karlin and Scarf introduce the lost-sales model with a positive lead time; convexity results follow in Karlin and Scarf (1958) and Morton (1969).
  • 1962: Kingman bounds how fast the expected waiting time of an initially empty GI/G/1 queue approaches its steady-state value (doi).
  • 2004: Reiman finds that the best constant-order policy can outperform the base-stock policy.
  • 2009: Huh, Janakiraman, Muckstadt and Rusmevichientong (Management Science 55(3)) prove base-stock policies asymptotically optimal as the lost-sales penalty grows.
  • 2011: Huh, Janakiraman and Nagarajan (Operations Research 59(1)) give the existence of stationary optimal policies used by the paper.
  • 2015–2016: Goldberg et al. prove asymptotic optimality of constant-order policies as the lead time grows; Xin and Goldberg prove exponential decay of the gap.

The setting

Demands D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\dotsD1​,D2​,… are i.i.d. copies of a nonnegative random variable DDD with law D\mathcal DD, finite mean E[D]\mathbb E[D]E[D] and strictly positive variance. The lead time L≥1L\ge1L≥1 is an integer, h>0h>0h>0 is the unit holding cost and p>0p>0p>0 the unit lost-sales penalty. At the start of period ttt there is on-hand inventory ItI_tIt​ and a pipeline xt=(x1,t,…,xL,t)\mathbf x_t=(x_{1,t},\dots,x_{L,t})xt​=(x1,t​,…,xL,t​) of orders placed but not yet delivered. In each period, x1,tx_{1,t}x1,t​ arrives, a new order is placed (it enters the end of the pipeline), demand DtD_tDt​ is realized, and the period cost

Ct=h (It+x1,t−Dt)++p (It+x1,t−Dt)−C_t=h\,(I_t+x_{1,t}-D_t)^++p\,(I_t+x_{1,t}-D_t)^-Ct​=h(It​+x1,t​−Dt​)++p(It​+x1,t​−Dt​)−

is incurred; then It+1=(It+x1,t−Dt)+I_{t+1}=(I_t+x_{1,t}-D_t)^+It+1​=(It​+x1,t​−Dt​)+. The system starts empty. A policy π\piπ chooses orders from the information available, and its long-run average cost is C(π)=lim sup⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TE[Ctπ]C(\pi)=\limsup_{T\to\infty}\frac1T\sum_{t=1}^T\mathbb E[C^\pi_t]C(π)=limsupT→∞​T1​∑t=1T​E[Ctπ​]. The optimal cost is OPT(L)=inf⁡πC(π)\mathrm{OPT}(L)=\inf_\pi C(\pi)OPT(L)=infπ​C(π).

The constant-order policy πr\pi_rπr​ orders rrr in every period. Its cost is governed by the random walk jr−∑i=1jDijr-\sum_{i=1}^jD_ijr−∑i=1j​Di​ through

I∞r=sup⁡j≥0(jr−∑i=1jDi),ILr=max⁡j=0,…,L(jr−∑i=1jDi),I^r_\infty=\sup_{j\ge0}\Big(jr-\sum_{i=1}^jD_i\Big),\qquad I^r_L=\max_{j=0,\dots,L}\Big(jr-\sum_{i=1}^jD_i\Big),I∞r​=j≥0sup​(jr−i=1∑j​Di​),ILr​=j=0,…,Lmax​(jr−i=1∑j​Di​),

the steady-state and LLL-th waiting times of a single-server queue with interarrival law D\mathcal DD and constant service time rrr. The best constant order r∞r_\inftyr∞​ is the least minimizer of C(πr)C(\pi_r)C(πr​) over 0≤r≤E[D]0\le r\le\mathbb E[D]0≤r≤E[D]. The rate and constants are

γ=inf⁡θ≥0eθr∞E[e−θD],g=inf⁡x∈RE[h(x−D)++p(x−D)−],\gamma=\inf_{\theta\ge0}e^{\theta r_\infty}\mathbb E[e^{-\theta D}],\qquad g=\inf_{x\in\mathbb R}\mathbb E\big[h(x-D)^++p(x-D)^-\big],γ=θ≥0inf​eθr∞​E[e−θD],g=x∈Rinf​E[h(x−D)++p(x−D)−],

with ϑ\varthetaϑ the largest minimizer in the definition of γ\gammaγ (ϑ=∞\vartheta=\inftyϑ=∞ if the infimum is not attained, and 1/∞=01/\infty=01/∞=0).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 8)

C(πr∞)OPT(L)≤1+h((1−γ)g)−1(E[D]−r∞+(eϑ(L+1))−1)γL+1for all L≥1.\frac{C(\pi_{r_\infty})}{\mathrm{OPT}(L)}\le1+h\big((1-\gamma)g\big)^{-1}\Big(\mathbb E[D]-r_\infty+\big(e\vartheta(L+1)\big)^{-1}\Big)\gamma^{L+1}\qquad\text{for all }L\ge1 .OPT(L)C(πr∞​​)​≤1+h((1−γ)g)−1(E[D]−r∞​+(eϑ(L+1))−1)γL+1for all L≥1.

The quantities r∞,γ,ϑ,gr_\infty,\gamma,\vartheta,gr∞​,γ,ϑ,g depend on D,h,p\mathcal D,h,pD,h,p but not on LLL.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  • Eq. (3): C(πr)=h E[I∞r]+p E[D]−prC(\pi_r)=h\,\mathbb E[I^r_\infty]+p\,\mathbb E[D]-prC(πr​)=hE[I∞r​]+pE[D]−pr for r∈[0,E[D])r\in[0,\mathbb E[D])r∈[0,E[D]).
  • Sec. 2.2: the best constant exists and r∞<E[D]r_\infty<\mathbb E[D]r∞​<E[D]; Sec. 2.3: ϑ>0\vartheta>0ϑ>0, γ∈[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1)γ∈[0,1), g>0g>0g>0 and OPT(L)≥g\mathrm{OPT}(L)\ge gOPT(L)≥g.
  • Observation 1 (convexity of fd\mathfrak f_{\mathbf d}fd​ and a Jensen bound) and Lemma 2: OPT(L)≥CL(rL)\mathrm{OPT}(L)\ge C_L(r_L)OPT(L)≥CL​(rL​) and the decomposition (5) of C(πr∞)−OPT(L)C(\pi_{r_\infty})-\mathrm{OPT}(L)C(πr∞​​)−OPT(L).
  • Lemma 3 (Kingman's series and the tail bound), Lemma 4 (r∞≤rLr_\infty\le r_Lr∞​≤rL​), Lemma 5 (∑nP(nr∞≥∑i≤nDi)≥p/h\sum_n\mathbb P(nr_\infty\ge\sum_{i\le n}D_i)\ge p/h∑n​P(nr∞​≥∑i≤n​Di​)≥p/h), the Chernoff step P(nr∞≥∑i≤nDi)≤γn\mathbb P(nr_\infty\ge\sum_{i\le n}D_i)\le\gamma^nP(nr∞​≥∑i≤n​Di​)≤γn, and the bound on the term (6).
  • Further: Lemma 1 (monotonicity of γ\gammaγ in p/hp/hp/h) and Corollary 1 (the closed form for exponential demand).

Significance

The theorem shows that a lead time of order log⁡(ϵ−1)\log(\epsilon^{-1})log(ϵ−1) suffices for the constant-order policy to be within a factor 1+ϵ1+\epsilon1+ϵ of optimal, whereas the earlier bounds of Goldberg et al. needed a lead time polynomial in ϵ−1\epsilon^{-1}ϵ−1. The constants are explicit and computable from the demand law: for exponential demand with p=hp=hp=h and L=1L=1L=1 the bound is already about 3.363.363.36, and it approaches 111 quickly as LLL grows (Table 1 of the paper). Lemma 1 adds that the rate γ\gammaγ worsens as p/hp/hp/h grows, the regime opposite to the one in which base-stock policies are known to be nearly optimal.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known to exist. A formalization would produce a checked infinite-horizon lost-sales model and a checked statement of Kingman's random-walk identities for this queue. It would also produce checked comparisons of an arbitrary history-dependent policy with constant-order policies through convexity. The statement here is taken over a policy class at least as large as the paper's, so a proof also extends the result to randomized history-dependent policies.

Difficulty

The cost of the constant-order policy is the expected supremum of a random walk, while the optimal policy has no closed form and may not even induce a stationary distribution. The paper avoids the steady state of the optimal policy by constructing a random vector with the needed stationarity properties (Theorem 2). That construction is not part of this mission. Here, the lower bound on OPT(L)\mathrm{OPT}(L)OPT(L) in Lemma 2 instead goes through the published, proved lower certificate for the full policy class. The second obstacle is quantitative: the exponential rate comes from comparing the minimizers r∞r_\inftyr∞​ and rLr_LrL​ of two different convex functions (Lemma 4) and from a first-order optimality condition involving a non-differentiable expectation (Lemma 5). Neither follows from the observation that one function dominates the other.

Formalization scope

The model is the published CappedBaseStock model: zero-based time, an empty initial state, demand laws on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite positive mean, and costs and long-run averages in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. OPT(L)\mathrm{OPT}(L)OPT(L) is the infimum over all measurable, history-dependent, possibly randomized policies. That class contains the paper's Markov deterministic class Π\PiΠ, so every statement involving OPT(L)\mathrm{OPT}(L)OPT(L) is at least as strong as printed. "Strictly positive variance" is encoded as "the demand law is not a point mass". It is a hypothesis wherever the paper's argument needs it; the Chernoff step, eq. (3) and Corollary 1 do not need it.

C(πr)C(\pi_r)C(πr​) is the model's long-run cost of the constant policy, not formula (3), and E[I∞r]\mathbb E[I^r_\infty]E[I∞r​] is a lower integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], so that eq. (3) and Lemma 3 are not true by definition. r∞r_\inftyr∞​ and rLr_LrL​ are infima of the argmin sets, whose nonemptiness is a milestone. 1/ϑ1/\vartheta1/ϑ is encoded with the paper's convention 1/∞=01/\infty=01/∞=0. Lemma 3's tail bound is stated additively in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the series in Lemmas 3 and 5 are extended-real series indexed from 000. The goal's ratio is taken in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], where x/0=∞x/0=\inftyx/0=∞ for x≠0x\neq0x=0. None of γ<1\gamma<1γ<1, g>0g>0g>0 or r∞<E[D]r_\infty<\mathbb E[D]r∞​<E[D] is assumed: all three are milestones. A formalization that defines OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT over constant-order policies only, fixes rrr instead of r∞r_\inftyr∞​, treats γ,ϑ,g\gamma,\vartheta,gγ,ϑ,g as free parameters, or takes the ratio in R\mathbb RR after truncating infinite costs would make the goal trivial and is ruled out. The objects are defined from the full parameter record, which includes LLL. That they do not depend on LLL follows from eq. (3) and the existence milestone.

No statement corrects a printed slip. Theorem 2 (existence of the stationary vector) and eq. (2) (bounded stationary optimal policies) are not stated; Observation 1 instead takes Theorem 2's properties (i)–(iii) as hypotheses on an arbitrary law. The source is arXiv:1409.1499v2, whose printed page numbers equal the PDF's. Useful infrastructure: Lindley-type random-walk suprema, Spitzer–Kingman identities, Chernoff bounds for i.i.d. sums (Mathlib's measure_le_le_exp_mul_mgf), and Cesàro limits of expected costs. All of it is reusable for other queueing and inventory missions. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, and the Chernoff step is the natural entry point.

Selected references

  • L. Xin, D. A. Goldberg, Optimality gap of constant-order policies decays exponentially in the lead time for lost sales models, Operations Research 64(6), 2016; preprint arXiv:1409.1499v2. https://arxiv.org/abs/1409.1499v2
  • D. A. Goldberg, D. A. Katz-Rogozhnikov, Y. Lu, M. Sharma, M. S. Squillante, Asymptotic optimality of constant-order policies for lost sales inventory models with large lead times, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2016; preprint arXiv:1211.4063. https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.4063
  • J. F. C. Kingman, Some inequalities for the queue GI/G/1, Biometrika 49, 1962. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/49.3-4.315
  • M. Bijvank, I. F. A. Vis, Lost-sales inventory theory: a review, European Journal of Operational Research 215(1), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.02.004
  • S. Asmussen, Applied Probability and Queues, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/b97236
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