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The mathematical discipline of drawing inferences from data under uncertainty: estimation, hypothesis testing, prediction, and the quantification of confidence. Grounded in probability, it spans classical and Bayesian inference, experimental design, and modern high-dimensional and nonparametric theory, asking what data can reveal and with what guarantees.

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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning XX: Rademacher ComplexitiesTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 4 showed that uniform convergence suffices for learnability; Chapter 26 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019), measures its rate. The representativeness of a sample, sup⁡h∈H(LD(h)−LS(h))\sup_{h \in H}(L_D(h) - L_S(h))suph∈H​(LD​(h)−LS​(h)), is the quantity that controls the excess risk of ERM, and the Rademacher complexity R(F∘S)=1mEσsup⁡f∈F∑iσif(zi)R(F \circ S) = \frac1m\mathbb{E}_\sigma\sup_{f \in F}\sum_i\sigma_i f(z_i)R(F∘S)=m1​Eσ​supf∈F​∑i​σi​f(zi​) estimates it from the sample itself: the symmetrization argument gives ERep⁡≤2 ER\mathbb{E}\operatorname{Rep} \le 2\,\mathbb{E}RERep≤2ER (Lemma 26.2), and McDiarmid's bounded-differences inequality turns expectations into high-probability statements, yielding the generalization bounds of Theorem 26.5, including the data-dependent ones in which the complexity is computed on the training set. A small calculus of Rademacher complexities follows, affine images, convex hulls, Massart's lemma for finite sets and the contraction lemma for Lipschitz compositions, and it is applied to linear classes with ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ and ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ constraints. The chapter's payoff is dimension-free generalization bounds for linear predictors with Lipschitz losses (Theorem 26.12), for hard-SVM (Theorems 26.13–26.14), and for predictors with low ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm (Theorem 26.15).

Setting

For a loss class F=ℓ∘HF = \ell \circ HF=ℓ∘H and a sample S=(z1,…,zm)S = (z_1, \dots, z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​), Rep⁡D(F,S)=sup⁡f∈F(LD(f)−LS(f))\operatorname{Rep}_D(F, S) = \sup_{f \in F}(L_D(f) - L_S(f))RepD​(F,S)=supf∈F​(LD​(f)−LS​(f)) (26.1), F∘S={(f(z1),…,f(zm)):f∈F}F \circ S = \{(f(z_1), \dots, f(z_m)) : f \in F\}F∘S={(f(z1​),…,f(zm​)):f∈F}, and for A⊆RmA \subseteq \mathbb{R}^mA⊆Rm, R(A)=1mEσ[sup⁡a∈A∑iσiai]R(A) = \frac1m\mathbb{E}_\sigma[\sup_{a \in A}\sum_i\sigma_i a_i]R(A)=m1​Eσ​[supa∈A​∑i​σi​ai​] with σ\sigmaσ uniform on {±1}m\{\pm1\}^m{±1}m (26.5). The linear classes are H2∘S={(⟨w,xi⟩)i:∥w∥2≤1}H_2 \circ S = \{(\langle w, x_i\rangle)_i : \|w\|_2 \le 1\}H2​∘S={(⟨w,xi​⟩)i​:∥w∥2​≤1} in a Hilbert space and H1∘SH_1 \circ SH1​∘S with ∥w∥1≤1\|w\|_1 \le 1∥w∥1​≤1 in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn (26.14). Losses of the form ℓ(w,(x,y))=φ(⟨w,x⟩,y)\ell(w, (x, y)) = \varphi(\langle w, x\rangle, y)ℓ(w,(x,y))=φ(⟨w,x⟩,y) with a↦φ(a,y)a \mapsto \varphi(a, y)a↦φ(a,y) ρ\rhoρ-Lipschitz (26.18) cover the hinge and absolute losses.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 26.5

Assume ∣ℓ(h,z)∣≤c|\ell(h, z)| \le c∣ℓ(h,z)∣≤c for all zzz and h∈Hh \in Hh∈H. Then, each with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ over S∼DmS \sim D^mS∼Dm:

  1. for all h∈Hh \in Hh∈H, LD(h)−LS(h)≤2 ES′∼DmR(ℓ∘H∘S′)+c2ln⁡(2/δ)/mL_D(h) - L_S(h) \le 2\,\mathbb{E}_{S' \sim D^m}R(\ell \circ H \circ S') + c\sqrt{2\ln(2/\delta)/m}LD​(h)−LS​(h)≤2ES′∼Dm​R(ℓ∘H∘S′)+c2ln(2/δ)/m​;
  2. for all h∈Hh \in Hh∈H, LD(h)−LS(h)≤2R(ℓ∘H∘S)+4c2ln⁡(4/δ)/mL_D(h) - L_S(h) \le 2R(\ell \circ H \circ S) + 4c\sqrt{2\ln(4/\delta)/m}LD​(h)−LS​(h)≤2R(ℓ∘H∘S)+4c2ln(4/δ)/m​;
  3. for any h⋆∈Hh^\star \in Hh⋆∈H, LD(ERMH(S))−LD(h⋆)≤2R(ℓ∘H∘S)+5c2ln⁡(8/δ)/mL_D(\mathrm{ERM}_H(S)) - L_D(h^\star) \le 2R(\ell \circ H \circ S) + 5c\sqrt{2\ln(8/\delta)/m}LD​(ERMH​(S))−LD​(h⋆)≤2R(ℓ∘H∘S)+5c2ln(8/δ)/m​.

Milestones

Lemma 26.2 (symmetrization); Lemma 26.8 (Massart); Lemma 26.9 (contraction); Theorem 26.12 (linear predictors with ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ constraints); Theorem 26.13 (hard-SVM). Further items: Theorem 26.3, Lemma 26.4 (McDiarmid), Lemmas 26.6, 26.7, 26.10, 26.11, Theorem 26.14 and Theorem 26.15.

Significance

Rademacher complexity is the modern language of uniform convergence: it is data-dependent, it is dimension-free for linear classes, and it composes with Lipschitz losses, which is why the SVM bounds of this chapter do not depend on the dimension of www and apply verbatim to kernel methods (Remark 26.2). Theorem 26.5 is the template every such bound follows, symmetrization plus McDiarmid, and the two data-dependent parts are the first bounds in the book that use the training set both to learn and to certify. Massart's lemma and the contraction lemma are the two tools that make the calculus work, the first converting finiteness into a logarithmic dependence, the second removing the loss function from the picture. Theorem 26.13 finally justifies the margin-based sample complexity R2∥w⋆∥2/ϵ2R^2\|w^\star\|^2/\epsilon^2R2∥w⋆∥2/ϵ2 of hard-SVM, and Theorem 26.14 gives a bound computable from the output alone.

Difficulty

Lemma 26.2 is the symmetrization argument: a ghost sample, the exchange of zjz_jzj​ and zj′z'_jzj′​ (26.7), the introduction of one Rademacher sign at a time (26.8)–(26.9), and the split of the supremum. Formally it needs Fubini over the product of 2m2m2m copies of DDD and the sign average, and the measurability of the suprema, which the statements assume. McDiarmid's inequality is a martingale argument with Hoeffding's lemma at each step; it is the substantial probabilistic input, and Theorem 26.5 combines it with Lemma 26.2, a union bound and Hoeffding's inequality along the decomposition (26.10). Lemma 26.6 is the symmetry σ↦−σ\sigma \mapsto -\sigmaσ↦−σ; Lemma 26.7 is the fact that a linear functional on the simplex is maximized at a vertex; Massart's lemma is the exponential-moment bound Eeσa≤ea2/2\mathbb{E}e^{\sigma a} \le e^{a^2/2}Eeσa≤ea2/2 with Jensen and an optimized scaling; the contraction lemma is Kakade and Tewari's coordinate-by-coordinate argument (26.12)–(26.13), which in a formal proof must be run as an induction over the coordinates. Lemmas 26.10 and 26.11 are Cauchy–Schwarz and Hölder followed by Jensen, respectively Massart on the 2n2n2n coordinate vectors. Theorem 26.12 chains contraction, Lemma 26.10 and Theorem 26.5 on the almost-sure event ∥x∥≤R\|x\| \le R∥x∥≤R; Theorem 26.13 specializes it to the ramp loss with B=∥w⋆∥B = \|w^\star\|B=∥w⋆∥, where the hard-SVM output has zero empirical ramp loss; Theorem 26.14 is a union bound over the nested classes ∥w∥≤2i\|w\| \le 2^i∥w∥≤2i with δi=δ/(2i2)\delta_i = \delta/(2i^2)δi​=δ/(2i2); Theorem 26.15 repeats Theorem 26.12 with Lemma 26.11.

Formalization scope

The Rademacher complexity is a finite average over the 2m2^m2m sign vectors, so no measure on {±1}m\{\pm1\}^m{±1}m is needed, and the supremum over AAA is the real supremum over the subtype AAA; the theorems assume AAA nonempty and bounded, which every evaluation set of a bounded loss class satisfies. Risks are Mission I's risk and empRisk, samples are Fin m-indexed under iidLaw, and probability statements bound the outer measure of the failure event. Expectations of suprema over uncountable classes are Bochner integrals, so Lemma 26.2, Theorem 26.3 and Theorem 26.5 carry explicit hypotheses that S↦Rep⁡D(F,S)S \mapsto \operatorname{Rep}_D(F, S)S↦RepD​(F,S) and S↦R(F∘S)S \mapsto R(F \circ S)S↦R(F∘S) are measurable, the book's Remark 3.1 made visible; for the linear classes of §26.3–§26.4 these hold automatically when the Hilbert space is separable (the supremum over the ball is a supremum over a countable dense subset), which is why Theorems 26.12–26.14 assume SecondCountableTopology. McDiarmid's inequality is stated for a measurable function on a product of arbitrary probability measures. Theorem 26.13's error is P[y⟨wS,x⟩≤0]P[y\langle w_S, x\rangle \le 0]P[y⟨wS​,x⟩≤0], which dominates P[y≠sign⁡⟨wS,x⟩]P[y \ne \operatorname{sign}\langle w_S, x\rangle]P[y=sign⟨wS​,x⟩] whatever sign⁡(0)\operatorname{sign}(0)sign(0) is, and the hard-SVM learner is any map returning a minimum-norm margin-1 separator on separable samples; measurability of the learner is not needed because the bound is uniform over the ball. Theorem 26.14 is given with the constants of its proof, 4(ln⁡(4log⁡2∥wS∥)+ln⁡(1/δ))/m\sqrt{4(\ln(4\log_2\|w_S\|) + \ln(1/\delta))/m}4(ln(4log2​∥wS​∥)+ln(1/δ))/m​ rather than the printed ln⁡(4log⁡2∥wS∥/δ)/m\sqrt{\ln(4\log_2\|w_S\|/\delta)/m}ln(4log2​∥wS​∥/δ)/m​, and for ∥wS∥≥2\|w_S\| \ge 2∥wS​∥≥2, where i=⌈log⁡2∥wS∥⌉i = \lceil\log_2\|w_S\|\rceili=⌈log2​∥wS​∥⌉ satisfies 1≤i≤2log⁡2∥wS∥1 \le i \le 2\log_2\|w_S\|1≤i≤2log2​∥wS​∥ as the proof requires; the item text records this. Norms on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn as Fin n → ℝ are sup norms (Lemma 26.11, Theorem 26.15), Euclidean norms are written out (Massart), and inner product spaces carry the Euclidean norm.

Not stated: Definition 26.1 (already Mission II's IsRepresentative), the validation heuristic (26.2)–(26.3), Remark 26.1 (the improved rate under separability, no proof), Remark 26.2.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 26. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • P. L. Bartlett, S. Mendelson, Rademacher and Gaussian complexities: risk bounds and structural results, Journal of Machine Learning Research 3, 2002.
  • V. Koltchinskii, D. Panchenko, Rademacher processes and bounding the risk of function learning, in High Dimensional Probability II, Birkhäuser, 2000. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-1358-1_29
  • C. McDiarmid, On the method of bounded differences, in Surveys in Combinatorics, Cambridge University Press, 1989. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107359949.008
  • S. M. Kakade, K. Sridharan, A. Tewari, On the complexity of linear prediction: risk bounds, margin bounds, and regularization, NIPS 2008.
  • S. Boucheron, O. Bousquet, G. Lugosi, Theory of classification: a survey of some recent advances, ESAIM: Probability and Statistics 9, 2005. doi:10.1051/ps:2005018
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning XIV: Nearest NeighborTextbook

Motivation

Every learning paradigm of the book so far, ERM, SRM, MDL, RLM, is defined by a hypothesis class: the learner searches a predefined set of functions. Nearest Neighbor is the first method that is not. It memorizes the training set and labels a new point by the labels of its closest neighbors, on the assumption that the features are relevant to the labels in a way that makes close-by points likely to share a label. Chapter 19 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019), makes that assumption precise, a Lipschitz conditional probability, and proves a finite-sample guarantee: the expected error of the 1-NN rule on mmm examples is at most twice the Bayes error plus 4cd m−1/(d+1)4c\sqrt d\, m^{-1/(d+1)}4cd​m−1/(d+1) (Theorem 19.3). The classical results of Cover and Hart (1967) and Stone (1977) are asymptotic; the book insists, as it did in §7.4, on a bound that says what a finite sample buys under an explicit prior assumption. The chapter also proves that the exponential dependence on the dimension is not an artifact (Theorem 19.4, the curse of dimensionality) and, in its exercises, extends the analysis to the kkk-NN rule, whose error converges to (1+8/k)(1 + \sqrt{8/k})(1+8/k​) times the Bayes error (Theorem 19.5).

Setting

The instance domain XXX carries a metric ρ\rhoρ; for the analysis X=[0,1]dX = [0,1]^dX=[0,1]d with the Euclidean distance and Y={0,1}Y = \{0,1\}Y={0,1} with the 0–1 loss. For a sample S=(x1,y1),…,(xm,ym)S = (x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_m, y_m)S=(x1​,y1​),…,(xm​,ym​) and a point xxx, let π1(x),…,πm(x)\pi_1(x), \dots, \pi_m(x)π1​(x),…,πm​(x) reorder the sample by distance to xxx. The kkk-NN rule returns the majority label among yπ1(x),…,yπk(x)y_{\pi_1(x)}, \dots, y_{\pi_k(x)}yπ1​(x)​,…,yπk​(x)​; the 1-NN rule is hS(x)=yπ1(x)h_S(x) = y_{\pi_1(x)}hS​(x)=yπ1​(x)​; in general, for φ:(X×Y)k→Y\varphi : (X \times Y)^k \to Yφ:(X×Y)k→Y, the kkk-NN rule with respect to φ\varphiφ is hS(x)=φ((xπ1(x),yπ1(x)),…,(xπk(x),yπk(x)))h_S(x) = \varphi\big((x_{\pi_1(x)}, y_{\pi_1(x)}), \dots, (x_{\pi_k(x)}, y_{\pi_k(x)})\big)hS​(x)=φ((xπ1​(x)​,yπ1​(x)​),…,(xπk​(x)​,yπk​(x)​)) (19.1).

A distribution DDD over X×YX \times YX×Y has marginal DXD_XDX​ and conditional probability η(x)=P[y=1∣x]\eta(x) = P[y = 1 \mid x]η(x)=P[y=1∣x]; the Bayes optimal rule is h⋆(x)=1[η(x)>1/2]h^\star(x) = \mathbb{1}[\eta(x) > 1/2]h⋆(x)=1[η(x)>1/2], and the standing assumption is that η\etaη is ccc-Lipschitz: ∣η(x)−η(x′)∣≤c∥x−x′∥|\eta(x) - \eta(x')| \le c\|x - x'\|∣η(x)−η(x′)∣≤c∥x−x′∥. In the formalization a distribution with conditional probability η\etaη is written condLaw DX η: draw x∼DXx \sim D_Xx∼DX​, then y∼Bernoulli(η(x))y \sim \mathrm{Bernoulli}(\eta(x))y∼Bernoulli(η(x)). Every distribution with a regression function is of this form, so nothing is lost.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 19.3

For X=[0,1]dX = [0,1]^dX=[0,1]d, Y={0,1}Y = \{0,1\}Y={0,1}, a distribution DDD over X×YX \times YX×Y whose conditional probability η\etaη is ccc-Lipschitz, and hSh_ShS​ the result of the 1-NN rule on S∼DmS \sim D^mS∼Dm,

ES∼Dm[LD(hS)]≤2LD(h⋆)+4cd m−1d+1.\mathbb{E}_{S \sim D^m}[L_D(h_S)] \le 2L_D(h^\star) + 4c\sqrt d\, m^{-\frac{1}{d+1}}.ES∼Dm​[LD​(hS​)]≤2LD​(h⋆)+4cd​m−d+11​.

Milestones

Lemma 19.1 (the Lipschitz reduction: ES[LD(hS)]≤2LD(h⋆)+c ES,x∥x−xπ1(x)∥\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(h_S)] \le 2L_D(h^\star) + c\,\mathbb{E}_{S,x}\|x - x_{\pi_1(x)}\|ES​[LD​(hS​)]≤2LD​(h⋆)+cES,x​∥x−xπ1​(x)​∥); Lemma 19.2 (the expected mass of the sets among C1,…,CrC_1, \dots, C_rC1​,…,Cr​ missed by an i.i.d. sample of size mmm is at most r/(me)r/(me)r/(me)); Theorem 19.4 (for integer c≥2c \ge 2c≥2 and every learning rule there is a distribution with ccc-Lipschitz η\etaη and Bayes error 000 on which the rule's expected error is at least 1/41/41/4 whenever 2m≤(c+1)d2m \le (c+1)^d2m≤(c+1)d); Lemma 19.7 (the majority of k≥10k \ge 10k≥10 independent Bernoulli labels errs, against a label drawn from their mean ppp, at most (1+8/k)(1 + \sqrt{8/k})(1+8/k​) times as often as 1[p>1/2]\mathbb{1}[p > 1/2]1[p>1/2]); Theorem 19.5 (the kkk-NN bound ES[LD(hS)]≤(1+8/k)LD(h⋆)+(6cd+k)m−1/(d+1)\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(h_S)] \le (1 + \sqrt{8/k})L_D(h^\star) + (6c\sqrt d + k)m^{-1/(d+1)}ES​[LD​(hS​)]≤(1+8/k​)LD​(h⋆)+(6cd​+k)m−1/(d+1)). Lemma 19.6, the kkk-fold version of Lemma 19.2 with bound 2rk/m2rk/m2rk/m, is a further item.

Significance

Theorem 19.3 is the book's answer to the question it raised in §7.4: consistency results say that the 1-NN error converges to twice the Bayes error, but not how fast, and the rate necessarily depends on the distribution. The Lipschitz constant ccc and the dimension ddd are exactly the prior knowledge the rule relies on, and Theorem 19.4 shows through the No-Free-Lunch theorem that a sample of size exponential in ddd is genuinely required for some distributions in the class. Theorem 19.5 quantifies what larger kkk buys, the factor 222 improving to 1+8/k1 + \sqrt{8/k}1+8/k​, at the price of the additive term growing linearly in kkk. On the platform, this mission introduces the conditional-probability model of a distribution over X×{0,1}X \times \{0,1\}X×{0,1} and the Bayes rule, which Chapters 24 (generative models) and the nonparametric parts of the book use again, and the box-cover argument of Lemma 19.2, a small combinatorial-probability tool of independent use.

Difficulty

Lemma 19.1 is a computation once the expectation over SSS and (x,y)(x, y)(x,y) is decomposed as the book does: sample the unlabeled points first, find the nearest neighbor, then draw the two labels; the identity P[y≠y′]=2η(x)(1−η(x))+(η(x)−η(x′))(2η(x)−1)P[y \ne y'] = 2\eta(x)(1 - \eta(x)) + (\eta(x) - \eta(x'))(2\eta(x) - 1)P[y=y′]=2η(x)(1−η(x))+(η(x)−η(x′))(2η(x)−1) and LD(h⋆)=Exmin⁡{η,1−η}≥Ex η(1−η)L_D(h^\star) = \mathbb{E}_x\min\{\eta, 1 - \eta\} \ge \mathbb{E}_x\,\eta(1 - \eta)LD​(h⋆)=Ex​min{η,1−η}≥Ex​η(1−η) finish it. Formally the work is in the decomposition itself, which is Fubini for condLaw and the product law, and in the measurability of the rule, which the statement assumes. Lemma 19.2 is E[1[Ci∩S=∅]]=(1−P[Ci])m≤e−P[Ci]m\mathbb{E}[\mathbb{1}[C_i \cap S = \emptyset]] = (1 - P[C_i])^m \le e^{-P[C_i]m}E[1[Ci​∩S=∅]]=(1−P[Ci​])m≤e−P[Ci​]m and max⁡aae−ma≤1/(me)\max_a ae^{-ma} \le 1/(me)maxa​ae−ma≤1/(me). Theorem 19.3 covers the cube by boxes of side ε\varepsilonε, applies Lemma 19.2 to the boxes and sets ε=2m−1/(d+1)\varepsilon = 2m^{-1/(d+1)}ε=2m−1/(d+1); a formal proof must handle 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε not being an integer (take T=⌈1/ε⌉T = \lceil 1/\varepsilon \rceilT=⌈1/ε⌉ boxes per side, so r≤(2/ε)dr \le (2/\varepsilon)^dr≤(2/ε)d when ε≤1\varepsilon \le 1ε≤1, which is what the book's 2dε−d2^d\varepsilon^{-d}2dε−d already allows for) and the regime m<2d+1m < 2^{d+1}m<2d+1, where the trivial bound E∥x−xπ1(x)∥≤d\mathbb{E}\|x - x_{\pi_1(x)}\| \le \sqrt dE∥x−xπ1​(x)​∥≤d​ suffices. Theorem 19.4 is the No-Free-Lunch theorem on the grid of spacing 1/c1/c1/c, plus the observation that any {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-valued function on the grid extends to a ccc-Lipschitz [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued function on the cube (McShane). Lemma 19.6 is Chernoff's bound below the mean; Lemma 19.7 is the delicate one: Chernoff with the function h(a)=(1+a)log⁡(1+a)−ah(a) = (1 + a)\log(1 + a) - ah(a)=(1+a)log(1+a)−a and the inequality (1−2p)e−kp+k2(log⁡(2p)+1)≤8/k p(1 - 2p)e^{-kp + \frac k2(\log(2p) + 1)} \le \sqrt{8/k}\,p(1−2p)e−kp+2k​(log(2p)+1)≤8/k​p for p∈[0,1/2]p \in [0, 1/2]p∈[0,1/2], k≥10k \ge 10k≥10, which the book states without proof. Theorem 19.5 assembles Lemmas 19.6 and 19.7 along the four steps of Exercise 4; to reach the book's constants with an integer number of boxes one takes T=⌈m1/(d+1)/2.07⌉T = \lceil m^{1/(d+1)}/2.07 \rceilT=⌈m1/(d+1)/2.07⌉ boxes per side and Chernoff at δ=1/3\delta = 1/3δ=1/3 in Lemma 19.6, or notes that the bound is trivial unless m1/(d+1)>6cd+km^{1/(d+1)} > 6c\sqrt d + km1/(d+1)>6cd​+k.

Formalization scope

Labels are Bool; bernoulliLaw p is the Bernoulli law on Bool, condLaw DX η the distribution with marginal DX and conditional probability η, and bayesRule η the Bayes rule. The cube is the subtype cube d of EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), so its metric is Euclidean and its Borel structure is inherited; the Lipschitz hypothesis is LipschitzWith c η with c : ℝ≥0, together with η x ∈ [0,1] (a conditional probability). A kkk-NN rule is a learner h with IsKNNRuleWith k φ h: for every sample of size m≥km \ge km≥k and every xxx there is some reordering of the sample by distance to xxx whose first kkk entries feed φ\varphiφ; ties are therefore broken arbitrarily, and the theorems hold for every choice. Majority votes predict 111 iff strictly more than half of the kkk labels are 111, the book's 1[p′>1/2]\mathbb{1}[p' > 1/2]1[p′>1/2] of Lemma 19.7. The nearest-neighbor distance is nnDist S x = ⨅ i, dist x (S i).1. Expectations over S∼DmS \sim D^mS∼Dm are Bochner integrals against iidLaw D m (Mission I), and the expectation statements assume the rule is measurable in (S,x)(S, x)(S,x), the book's Remark 3.1; without it the integrals would be junk. Lemmas 19.2 and 19.6 are stated for arbitrary measurable subsets of an arbitrary measurable space, as in the book, with m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 (for m=0m = 0m=0 the left side is ∑iP[Ci]\sum_i P[C_i]∑i​P[Ci​] while Lean reads r/(0⋅e)r/(0 \cdot e)r/(0⋅e) as 000). Lemma 19.7 uses the product of Bernoulli laws on Fin k → Bool.

Two statements are given as their proofs support them, and the deviations are recorded in the item texts. Theorem 19.4 takes c≥2c \ge 2c≥2 an integer (the grid has spacing 1/c1/c1/c), fixes mmm with 2m≤(c+1)d2m \le (c+1)^d2m≤(c+1)d before choosing the distribution (Theorem 5.1 produces a distribution per mmm), and concludes that the expected true error is at least 1/41/41/4 (Equation (5.2) in the proof of Theorem 5.1; the book's "greater than 1/41/41/4" is what its proof gives for 2m<(c+1)d2m < (c+1)^d2m<(c+1)d only in the form of that expectation). Theorem 19.5 keeps the book's constants; the drafter checked that they are reachable with an integer number of boxes. Not stated: the general weighted-average rules of §19.1 beyond (19.1), the efficient implementation of §19.3, Exercise 3 (a one-line inequality, absorbed into the proof of Theorem 19.5).

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 19. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • T. Cover, P. Hart, Nearest neighbor pattern classification, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 13(1), 1967. doi:10.1109/TIT.1967.1053964
  • C. J. Stone, Consistent nonparametric regression, Annals of Statistics 5(4), 1977. doi:10.1214/aos/1176343886
  • L. Devroye, L. Györfi, G. Lugosi, A Probabilistic Theory of Pattern Recognition, Springer, 1996. doi:10.1007/978-1-4612-0711-5
  • L.-A. Gottlieb, A. Kontorovich, R. Krauthgamer, Efficient classification for metric data, COLT 2010; IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 60(9), 2014. doi:10.1109/TIT.2014.2339840
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Machine LearningOptimization·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning XI: Support Vector Machines and MarginTextbook

Motivation

The sample complexity of learning halfspaces in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd grows with ddd, which is bad news when features are many or infinite. Chapter 15 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) introduces the support vector machine, the learning rule that replaces dimension by geometry. Among the halfspaces separating a sample, Hard-SVM picks the one of largest margin, the distance from the hyperplane to the nearest example (Claim 15.1, Lemma 15.2); if the data are separable with margin γ\gammaγ and lie in a ball of radius ρ\rhoρ, the resulting classifier has error O(ρ/(γm))O(\rho/(\gamma\sqrt m))O(ρ/(γm​)) whatever the dimension (Theorem 15.4), and the Perceptron of Chapter 9 makes at most (ρ/γ)2(\rho/\gamma)^2(ρ/γ)2 updates (Remark 15.1). Soft-SVM drops separability by allowing slack variables, and Claim 15.5 identifies it with regularized hinge-loss minimization, so that the stability theory of Chapter 13 applies: the hinge loss is ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥-Lipschitz (Claim 15.6), and Corollary 15.7 gives an expected-risk bound depending only on the norms of the data and of the comparison halfspace. The chapter closes with the optimality conditions that explain the name: the Hard-SVM solution is a combination of the examples on the margin (Theorem 15.8, via the Fritz John conditions, Lemma 15.9).

Setting

Vectors live in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd as in Mission VI; labels are real numbers, with y∈{±1}y \in \{\pm 1\}y∈{±1} as a hypothesis wherever the book needs it. A sample is linearly separable if some halfspace (w,b)(w, b)(w,b) has yi(⟨w,xi⟩+b)>0y_i(\langle w, x_i\rangle + b) > 0yi​(⟨w,xi​⟩+b)>0 for all iii, and the margin of (w,b)(w, b)(w,b) on the sample is min⁡iyi(⟨w,xi⟩+b)\min_i y_i(\langle w, x_i\rangle + b)mini​yi​(⟨w,xi​⟩+b). Hard-SVM solutions are minimizers of ∥w∥\|w\|∥w∥ subject to yi(⟨w,xi⟩+b)≥1y_i(\langle w, x_i\rangle + b) \ge 1yi​(⟨w,xi​⟩+b)≥1, formalized as a relation; the minimizer is unique whenever the constraints are feasible, and the homogenous version sets b=0b = 0b=0. A distribution over Rd×{±1}\mathbb{R}^d \times \{\pm 1\}Rd×{±1} is separable with a (γ,ρ)(\gamma, \rho)(γ,ρ)-margin if some unit w⋆w^\starw⋆ (and b⋆b^\starb⋆) has y(⟨w⋆,x⟩+b⋆)≥γy(\langle w^\star, x\rangle + b^\star) \ge \gammay(⟨w⋆,x⟩+b⋆)≥γ and ∥x∥≤ρ\|x\| \le \rho∥x∥≤ρ almost surely. Soft-SVM is the problem λ∥w∥2+1m∑ξi\lambda\|w\|^2 + \frac1m\sum\xi_iλ∥w∥2+m1​∑ξi​ under yi(⟨w,xi⟩+b)≥1−ξiy_i(\langle w, x_i\rangle + b) \ge 1 - \xi_iyi​(⟨w,xi​⟩+b)≥1−ξi​, ξi≥0\xi_i \ge 0ξi​≥0; its homogenous form is the regularized loss minimization rule of Mission IX for the hinge loss max⁡{0,1−y⟨w,x⟩}\max\{0, 1 - y\langle w, x\rangle\}max{0,1−y⟨w,x⟩}, and the 0–1 loss is 1[y⟨w,x⟩≤0]\mathbb{1}[y\langle w, x\rangle \le 0]1[y⟨w,x⟩≤0]. Expectations over samples are integrals against DmD^mDm, with the measurability conventions of Mission IX.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 15.7, last part

For DDD on {∥x∥≤ρ}×{±1}\{\|x\| \le \rho\} \times \{\pm 1\}{∥x∥≤ρ}×{±1} almost surely, B>0B > 0B>0, and the Soft-SVM learner with λ=2ρ2/(B2m)\lambda = \sqrt{2\rho^2/(B^2 m)}λ=2ρ2/(B2m)​: ES[LD0−1(A(S))]≤ES[LDhinge(A(S))]\mathbb{E}_S[L^{0-1}_D(A(S))] \le \mathbb{E}_S[L^{hinge}_D(A(S))]ES​[LD0−1​(A(S))]≤ES​[LDhinge​(A(S))], and for every www with ∥w∥≤B\|w\| \le B∥w∥≤B, ES[LDhinge(A(S))]≤LDhinge(w)+8ρ2B2/m\mathbb{E}_S[L^{hinge}_D(A(S))] \le L^{hinge}_D(w) + \sqrt{8\rho^2 B^2/m}ES​[LDhinge​(A(S))]≤LDhinge​(w)+8ρ2B2/m​.

Milestones

Claim 15.1. The distance from xxx to {v:⟨w,v⟩+b=0}\{v : \langle w, v\rangle + b = 0\}{v:⟨w,v⟩+b=0} with ∥w∥=1\|w\| = 1∥w∥=1 is ∣⟨w,x⟩+b∣|\langle w, x\rangle + b|∣⟨w,x⟩+b∣.

Lemma 15.2. For a sample with both labels present, the normalized Hard-SVM output has unit norm and margin at least that of every unit-norm halfspace.

Theorem 15.4. Under homogenous (γ,ρ)(\gamma, \rho)(γ,ρ)-separability, with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ the 0–1 risk of the Hard-SVM output is at most 4(ρ/γ)2/m+2log⁡(2/δ)/m\sqrt{4(\rho/\gamma)^2/m} + \sqrt{2\log(2/\delta)/m}4(ρ/γ)2/m​+2log(2/δ)/m​.

Claim 15.5. Every feasible slack vector has average at least the hinge loss, and the hinge losses are feasible slacks.

Claim 15.6. For y∈{±1}y \in \{\pm 1\}y∈{±1}, w↦max⁡{0,1−y⟨w,x⟩}w \mapsto \max\{0, 1 - y\langle w, x\rangle\}w↦max{0,1−y⟨w,x⟩} is ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥-Lipschitz.

Corollary 15.7, first parts. For every uuu, ES[LDhinge(A(S))]\mathbb{E}_S[L^{hinge}_D(A(S))]ES​[LDhinge​(A(S))] and ES[LD0−1(A(S))]\mathbb{E}_S[L^{0-1}_D(A(S))]ES​[LD0−1​(A(S))] are at most LDhinge(u)+λ∥u∥2+2ρ2/(λm)L^{hinge}_D(u) + \lambda\|u\|^2 + 2\rho^2/(\lambda m)LDhinge​(u)+λ∥u∥2+2ρ2/(λm).

Theorem 15.8. The homogenous Hard-SVM solution is ∑i∈Iαixi\sum_{i \in I}\alpha_i x_i∑i∈I​αi​xi​ with I={i:∣⟨w0,xi⟩∣=1}I = \{i : |\langle w_0, x_i\rangle| = 1\}I={i:∣⟨w0​,xi​⟩∣=1}.

Lemma 15.9. Fritz John conditions, in the correct form with a multiplier on ∇f\nabla f∇f.

Further items: Exercise 15.1 (the two Hard-SVM formulations agree) and Exercise 15.2 (the Perceptron makes at most (ρ/γ)2(\rho/\gamma)^2(ρ/γ)2 updates).

Significance

SVM is the bridge between the statistical theory of Part I and the kernel methods of Chapter 16: because the bounds of Theorem 15.4 and Corollary 15.7 involve only ρ\rhoρ, γ\gammaγ and BBB, the same algorithm can be run after an embedding into a huge or infinite-dimensional feature space, and Theorem 15.8, that the solution lies in the span of the examples, is what makes the embedding computable. Corollary 15.7 is also the first place where the abstract machinery of Chapter 13 is applied to a specific learning rule.

Nothing here is machine-checked. One correction is built in: the Fritz John lemma is stated with the multiplier α0≥0\alpha_0 \ge 0α0​≥0 on ∇f(w⋆)\nabla f(w^\star)∇f(w⋆) and nonnegative multipliers not all zero, since the printed form, with ∇f(w⋆)\nabla f(w^\star)∇f(w⋆) unweighted and α\alphaα unrestricted, fails already for f(w)=wf(w) = wf(w)=w and g1(w)=w2g_1(w) = w^2g1​(w)=w2 on the line. Theorem 15.8 is unaffected: its constraints are affine, so the multiplier on ∇f\nabla f∇f can be taken to be 111.

Difficulty

Claim 15.6 and Claim 15.5 are short inequalities and the intended entry points, and Exercise 15.2 is Theorem 9.1 of Mission VI with B≤1/γB \le 1/\gammaB≤1/γ and R≤ρR \le \rhoR≤ρ. Claim 15.1 is the book's computation with the foot of the perpendicular v=x−(⟨w,x⟩+b)wv = x - (\langle w, x\rangle + b)wv=x−(⟨w,x⟩+b)w and a Pythagorean inequality for every other point of the hyperplane, packaged as an infimum distance. Lemma 15.2 is the rescaling argument of the book, together with the observation that both labels force w0≠0w_0 \ne 0w0​=0; Exercise 15.1 needs the positivity of the optimal margin on a separable sample. Corollary 15.7 is Corollaries 13.8 and 13.9 of Mission IX for the hinge loss, whose Lipschitz constant is ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥ only on the support of DDD, so the stability argument must be run with the almost-sure bound; the 0–1 clause is the pointwise inequality ℓ0−1≤ℓhinge\ell_{0-1} \le \ell_{hinge}ℓ0−1​≤ℓhinge​. Theorem 15.4 is the content of §26.3: Rademacher complexity of the class of norm-bounded halfspaces, the contraction lemma for the ramp loss, the observation that the Hard-SVM output has zero ramp loss on the sample and norm at most 1/γ1/\gamma1/γ, and a concentration step, all of which will be items of the Rademacher mission. Theorem 15.8 is the KKT theorem for a strictly convex quadratic with affine constraints (Slater's condition holds), and Lemma 15.9 is the general Fritz John theorem for differentiable data, whose proof goes through a separation or penalty argument; neither is in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

Hard-SVM and Soft-SVM are relations and learners, not programs; the margin is a real infimum over the sample; the ramp loss is defined but its bounds belong to Chapter 26. Theorem 15.4 is stated for any learner that returns the Hard-SVM solution whenever the sample is feasible, which is almost surely the case under the margin assumption, and bounds the failure event in outer measure. Corollary 15.7 carries the measurability conventions of Mission IX. The Fritz John lemma is stated correctly rather than as printed. The duality of §15.4, the SGD implementation of §15.5 (whose guarantee needs the trajectory bound of §14.5.3 rather than Theorem 14.11 as stated in Mission X), Exercises 15.3 and 15.4, and Remark 15.2 are not stated.

Trivializing readings are excluded: both labels must be present for the normalized Hard-SVM output, the margin assumption and the support condition are almost sure with respect to DDD, and the risks are genuine integrals. Welcome contributions: the uniqueness of the Hard-SVM minimizer, the KKT conditions for affine constraints, and the pointwise comparison of the 0–1, ramp and hinge losses.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 15. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • C. Cortes, V. Vapnik, Support-vector networks, Machine Learning 20(3), 1995. doi:10.1007/BF00994018
  • B. E. Boser, I. M. Guyon, V. N. Vapnik, A training algorithm for optimal margin classifiers, Proceedings of COLT, 1992. doi:10.1145/130385.130401
  • F. John, Extremum problems with inequalities as subsidiary conditions, in Studies and Essays Presented to R. Courant, 1948.
  • N. Cristianini, J. Shawe-Taylor, An Introduction to Support Vector Machines, Cambridge University Press, 2000. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511801389
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning IX: Convex Learning Problems, Regularization and StabilityTextbook

Motivation

Chapters 12 and 13 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) leave binary classification for the general framework in which a hypothesis is a vector w∈Rdw \in \mathbb{R}^dw∈Rd and the loss ℓ(w,z)\ell(w, z)ℓ(w,z) is a convex function of www. Convexity makes the ERM problem tractable (Lemma 12.11), but Examples 12.8 and 12.9 show that convexity, even with a bounded class, does not by itself make a problem learnable: one-dimensional linear regression with the squared loss defeats every learner. The chapter therefore isolates two families, the convex-Lipschitz-bounded and the convex-smooth-bounded problems (Definitions 12.12 and 12.13), and Chapter 13 proves that both are learnable, not by ERM but by Regularized Loss Minimization with Tikhonov regularization, A(S)∈argmin⁡wLS(w)+λ∥w∥2A(S) \in \operatorname{argmin}_w L_S(w) + \lambda\|w\|^2A(S)∈argminw​LS​(w)+λ∥w∥2. The proof goes through a new idea: stability. Theorem 13.2 expresses the expected overfitting E[LD(A(S))−LS(A(S))]\mathbb{E}[L_D(A(S)) - L_S(A(S))]E[LD​(A(S))−LS​(A(S))] exactly as the expected effect of replacing one training example, strong convexity of the regularized objective bounds that effect (Lemma 13.5, Corollaries 13.6 and 13.7), and balancing the regularization against the fit gives oracle inequalities (Corollaries 13.8 and 13.10) and sample-complexity guarantees (Corollaries 13.9 and 13.11), with ridge regression as the worked example (Theorem 13.1).

Setting

Hypotheses are vectors in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd with the Euclidean norm, as in Mission VI; risk, empirical risk, the product law of a sample and agnostic PAC learnability are those of Mission I. A problem is convex when HHH is convex and every ℓ(⋅,z)\ell(\cdot, z)ℓ(⋅,z) is convex; it is convex-Lipschitz-bounded with parameters ρ,B\rho, Bρ,B when moreover ∥w∥≤B\|w\| \le B∥w∥≤B on HHH and every ℓ(⋅,z)\ell(\cdot, z)ℓ(⋅,z) is ρ\rhoρ-Lipschitz on Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd, and convex-smooth-bounded with parameters β,B\beta, Bβ,B when every ℓ(⋅,z)\ell(\cdot, z)ℓ(⋅,z) is nonnegative and differentiable with a β\betaβ-Lipschitz gradient. Lipschitzness and smoothness are required on all of Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd because the RLM rule is unconstrained and its outputs need not lie in HHH. The RLM rule is a relation: www is an output on SSS if it minimizes LS(w)+λ∥w∥2L_S(w) + \lambda\|w\|^2LS​(w)+λ∥w∥2 over Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd, and a learner implements the rule if all its outputs are minimizers. For the losses of the chapter the minimizer exists and is unique. Given S=(z1,…,zm)S = (z_1, \dots, z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​) and a further example z′z'z′, S(i)S^{(i)}S(i) is SSS with ziz_izi​ replaced by z′z'z′; a learner is on-average-replace-one-stable with rate ϵ(m)\epsilon(m)ϵ(m) if E(S,z′)∼Dm+1, i∼U(m)[ℓ(A(S(i)),zi)−ℓ(A(S),zi)]≤ϵ(m)\mathbb{E}_{(S,z') \sim D^{m+1},\, i \sim U(m)}[\ell(A(S^{(i)}), z_i) - \ell(A(S), z_i)] \le \epsilon(m)E(S,z′)∼Dm+1,i∼U(m)​[ℓ(A(S(i)),zi​)−ℓ(A(S),zi​)]≤ϵ(m) for every distribution. Strong convexity is Mathlib's StrongConvexOn, which is Definition 13.4 verbatim.

Expectations over samples are integrals against product laws. For them to be genuine, the theorems about arbitrary learners assume a jointly measurable loss bounded by a constant and a measurable learner, and the theorems about RLM assume a jointly measurable, nonnegative loss bounded at the origin and a measurable learner; for RLM the latter is automatic, since the minimizer is unique.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 13.9

For a convex-Lipschitz-bounded problem with parameters ρ,B>0\rho, B > 0ρ,B>0 and the RLM learner with λ(m)=2ρ2/(B2m)\lambda(m) = \sqrt{2\rho^2/(B^2 m)}λ(m)=2ρ2/(B2m)​: for every distribution, every m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and every w∈Hw \in Hw∈H, ES[LD(A(S))]≤LD(w)+ρB8/m\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S))] \le L_D(w) + \rho B\sqrt{8/m}ES​[LD​(A(S))]≤LD​(w)+ρB8/m​; hence for every ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 and m≥8ρ2B2/ϵ2m \ge 8\rho^2B^2/\epsilon^2m≥8ρ2B2/ϵ2, ES[LD(A(S))]≤LD(w)+ϵ\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S))] \le L_D(w) + \epsilonES​[LD​(A(S))]≤LD​(w)+ϵ.

Milestones

Examples 12.8–12.9. Linear regression on R\mathbb{R}R with the squared loss is not agnostic PAC learnable, over H=RH = \mathbb{R}H=R or over H=[−1,1]H = [-1, 1]H=[−1,1].

Theorem 13.2. For any measurable learner and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1, ES[LD(A(S))−LS(A(S))]\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S)) - L_S(A(S))]ES​[LD​(A(S))−LS​(A(S))] equals the replace-one expectation of (13.6).

Lemma 13.5. λ∥w∥2\lambda\|w\|^2λ∥w∥2 is 2λ2\lambda2λ-strongly convex; a strongly convex function plus a convex one is strongly convex; at a minimizer uuu of a λ\lambdaλ-strongly convex fff, f(w)−f(u)≥λ2∥w−u∥2f(w) - f(u) \ge \frac\lambda2\|w - u\|^2f(w)−f(u)≥2λ​∥w−u∥2.

Corollary 13.6. For a convex ρ\rhoρ-Lipschitz loss and λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, RLM satisfies ℓ(A(S(i)),zi)−ℓ(A(S),zi)≤2ρ2/(λm)\ell(A(S^{(i)}), z_i) - \ell(A(S), z_i) \le 2\rho^2/(\lambda m)ℓ(A(S(i)),zi​)−ℓ(A(S),zi​)≤2ρ2/(λm) for every S,z′,iS, z', iS,z′,i, is stable with that rate, and has ES[LD(A(S))−LS(A(S))]≤2ρ2/(λm)\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S)) - L_S(A(S))] \le 2\rho^2/(\lambda m)ES​[LD​(A(S))−LS​(A(S))]≤2ρ2/(λm).

Corollary 13.7. For a convex, nonnegative, β\betaβ-smooth loss and λ≥2β/m\lambda \ge 2\beta/mλ≥2β/m, the replace-one expectation is at most (48β/(λm)) E[LS(A(S))](48\beta/(\lambda m))\,\mathbb{E}[L_S(A(S))](48β/(λm))E[LS​(A(S))], and at most 48βC/(λm)48\beta C/(\lambda m)48βC/(λm) if ℓ(0,z)≤C\ell(0, z) \le Cℓ(0,z)≤C.

Corollary 13.8. ES[LD(A(S))]≤LD(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2+2ρ2/(λm)\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S))] \le L_D(w^*) + \lambda\|w^*\|^2 + 2\rho^2/(\lambda m)ES​[LD​(A(S))]≤LD​(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2+2ρ2/(λm) for every w∗w^*w∗.

Corollary 13.10. ES[LD(A(S))]≤(1+48β/(λm)) ES[LS(A(S))]≤(1+48β/(λm))(LD(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2)\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S))] \le (1 + 48\beta/(\lambda m))\,\mathbb{E}_S[L_S(A(S))] \le (1 + 48\beta/(\lambda m))(L_D(w^*) + \lambda\|w^*\|^2)ES​[LD​(A(S))]≤(1+48β/(λm))ES​[LS​(A(S))]≤(1+48β/(λm))(LD​(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2).

Corollary 13.11. A convex-smooth-bounded problem with ℓ(0,z)≤1\ell(0, z) \le 1ℓ(0,z)≤1 is learned by RLM with λ=ϵ/(3B2)\lambda = \epsilon/(3B^2)λ=ϵ/(3B2) once m≥150βB2/ϵ2m \ge 150\beta B^2/\epsilon^2m≥150βB2/ϵ2.

Theorem 13.1. Ridge regression on the unit ball with labels in [−1,1][-1, 1][−1,1], λ=ϵ/(3B2)\lambda = \epsilon/(3B^2)λ=ϵ/(3B2) and m≥150B2/ϵ2m \ge 150 B^2/\epsilon^2m≥150B2/ϵ2 has ES[LD(A(S))]≤min⁡∥w∥≤BLD(w)+ϵ\mathbb{E}_S[L_D(A(S))] \le \min_{\|w\| \le B} L_D(w) + \epsilonES​[LD​(A(S))]≤min∥w∥≤B​LD​(w)+ϵ.

Further items: Lemma 12.11, the hinge loss as a convex surrogate of the 0–1 loss, the stability-implies-no-overfitting remark of §13.2, and the ridge regression system (13.4)–(13.5).

Significance

Stability is the third route to learnability in the book after uniform convergence and nonuniform learnability, and the only one that applies to convex-Lipschitz-bounded problems in general, for which uniform convergence can fail (the book's Exercise 13.2). The chain from strong convexity through replace-one stability to oracle inequalities is the template for the analysis of every regularized learner, and Theorem 13.2 is an exact identity, not a bound. Ridge regression, support vector machines (Chapter 15) and the regularized algorithms of later chapters are all instances.

Nothing here is machine-checked. The sample sizes of Corollary 13.11 and Theorem 13.1 are the book's 150150150. Chaining Corollary 13.10 as printed would need 216216216, but the derivation of Corollary 13.7 actually gives the stability rate 20β/(λm)20\beta/(\lambda m)20β/(λm), with which 909090 suffices.

Difficulty

Lemma 12.11 and the hinge surrogate are direct. Lemma 13.5 is elementary but part (3) needs the limit α→0\alpha \to 0α→0 of the strong-convexity inequality at a minimizer. Examples 12.8–12.9 require constructing the two finitely supported distributions of the book and computing the risk of a fixed output on each; the probability that all mmm examples are of the second type is at least 0.990.990.99 under both, and the deterministic learner's output on that sample decides which distribution defeats it. Theorem 13.2 is the exchangeability argument of the book: E[ℓ(A(S),z′)]=E[ℓ(A(S(i)),zi)]\mathbb{E}[\ell(A(S), z')] = \mathbb{E}[\ell(A(S^{(i)}), z_i)]E[ℓ(A(S),z′)]=E[ℓ(A(S(i)),zi​)] because swapping ziz_izi​ and z′z'z′ preserves the product law; the formal work is the measure-preserving transposition on Zm+1Z^{m+1}Zm+1 and the integrability of the functions involved. Corollaries 13.6 and 13.7 follow the book's pointwise derivation from (13.7) to (13.11) and (13.12) to (13.14), where the smooth case uses the self-boundedness ∥∇ℓ∥2≤2βℓ\|\nabla\ell\|^2 \le 2\beta\ell∥∇ℓ∥2≤2βℓ of nonnegative smooth functions and the inequality (a+b)2≤3(a2+b2)(a + b)^2 \le 3(a^2 + b^2)(a+b)2≤3(a2+b2); passing to expectations then uses Theorem 13.2 and, for the smooth case, the symmetry E[ℓ(A(S(i)),z′)]=E[ℓ(A(S),zi)]\mathbb{E}[\ell(A(S^{(i)}), z')] = \mathbb{E}[\ell(A(S), z_i)]E[ℓ(A(S(i)),z′)]=E[ℓ(A(S),zi​)]. Corollaries 13.8 to 13.11 are the arithmetic of the book once (13.16), E[LS(A(S))]≤LD(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2\mathbb{E}[L_S(A(S))] \le L_D(w^*) + \lambda\|w^*\|^2E[LS​(A(S))]≤LD​(w∗)+λ∥w∗∥2, is in hand, with the corrected constant for 13.11. The ridge system is the gradient condition for a strongly convex quadratic, and Theorem 13.1 is Corollary 13.11 applied to 12(⟨w,x⟩−y)2\frac12(\langle w, x\rangle - y)^221​(⟨w,x⟩−y)2, which is ∥x∥2\|x\|^2∥x∥2-smooth with ℓ(0,z)=y2/2≤1/2\ell(0, z) = y^2/2 \le 1/2ℓ(0,z)=y2/2≤1/2 on the support. In every expectation statement the measurability of S↦A(S)S \mapsto A(S)S↦A(S) for the RLM rule, which the theorems take as a hypothesis, is provable from uniqueness of the minimizer and is worth a lemma.

Formalization scope

Losses are real-valued functions of a vector and an example; Lipschitz and smoothness conditions are global on Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd. The RLM rule is a minimizer relation with the regularization parameter as an explicit argument, and Corollary 13.9's learner uses a parameter depending on mmm. Stability quantifies over m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and averages over the replaced index. Expectation statements carry measurability hypotheses that make every integral genuine, and the theorems about arbitrary learners assume a bounded loss. The minimum over HHH is stated as "for every w∈Hw \in Hw∈H", so no minimizer is needed. Definitions 12.1–12.9 and Claims 12.4–12.9 (general convex analysis) are not restated, nor are Examples 12.10–12.11, the discussion of §12.3 beyond the surrogate property, Remark 13.1, and Exercises 12.1–12.4 and 13.1–13.2.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the nonlearnability examples are stated as negations of the framework's learnability, the stability identity is an equality with both sides genuine integrals, and the constants of the oracle inequalities are the book's. Welcome contributions: the transposition invariance of product laws behind Theorem 13.2, the bound ∥A(S)∥2≤LS(0)/λ\|A(S)\|^2 \le L_S(0)/\lambda∥A(S)∥2≤LS​(0)/λ for RLM outputs, the measurability of the RLM minimizer, and the self-boundedness inequality (12.6).

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapters 12 and 13. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • O. Bousquet, A. Elisseeff, Stability and generalization, Journal of Machine Learning Research 2, 2002.
  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, O. Shamir, N. Srebro, K. Sridharan, Learnability, stability and uniform convergence, Journal of Machine Learning Research 11, 2010.
  • A. N. Tikhonov, On the stability of inverse problems, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR 39(5), 1943.
  • S. Boyd, L. Vandenberghe, Convex Optimization, Cambridge University Press, 2004. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511804441
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CombinatoricsMachine Learning·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning VII: Boosting and AdaBoostTextbook

Motivation

Boosting answers a question raised by Kearns and Valiant: can a learner that is only slightly better than random guessing be turned into one that is arbitrarily accurate? Chapter 10 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) defines γ-weak learnability (Definition 10.1), the PAC requirement with the accuracy ϵ\epsilonϵ replaced by the fixed value 1/2−γ1/2 - \gamma1/2−γ, and presents AdaBoost, the algorithm of Freund and Schapire that, given weak hypotheses, reweights the training set round by round and outputs a weighted majority vote. The chapter's main result (Theorem 10.2) is that the training error of AdaBoost's output decreases as e−2γ2Te^{-2\gamma^2 T}e−2γ2T in the number of rounds. Since the output is a halfspace over the predictions of TTT base hypotheses, the chapter then bounds the VC-dimension of that class (Lemma 10.3), so that the number of rounds becomes a knob for the bias–complexity tradeoff. Example 10.1 shows a concrete weak learner, ERM over decision stumps for the class of 3-piece classifiers on the line, and the chapter remarks that, statistically, weak learnability is no easier than strong learnability: a class of infinite VC-dimension is not weakly learnable either.

Setting

The framework is that of Missions I and IV: binary classification over a domain XXX with the 0–1 loss, distributions DDD over XXX with a labeling function fff, learners as functions of the sample, the VC-dimension, and ERM. Labels and hypotheses are Boolean, with ±1\pm 1±1 values obtained through sgn⁡(true)=1\operatorname{sgn}(\text{true}) = 1sgn(true)=1, sgn⁡(false)=−1\operatorname{sgn}(\text{false}) = -1sgn(false)=−1, and sign⁡(z)\operatorname{sign}(z)sign(z) is true exactly when z>0z > 0z>0. A γ-weak learner for HHH with the function mH:(0,1)→Nm_H : (0,1) \to \mathbb{N}mH​:(0,1)→N returns, for every δ\deltaδ, every DDD and every measurable fff realizable by HHH, a hypothesis with L(D,f)(h)≤1/2−γL_{(D,f)}(h) \le 1/2 - \gammaL(D,f)​(h)≤1/2−γ with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ once m≥mH(δ)m \ge m_H(\delta)m≥mH​(δ); the failure event is bounded in outer measure as in Definition 3.1.

AdaBoost is formalized as a deterministic function of the sample S=(x1,y1),…,(xm,ym)S = (x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_m, y_m)S=(x1​,y1​),…,(xm​,ym​) and of the sequence of weak hypotheses h0,h1,…h_0, h_1, \dotsh0​,h1​,… that the weak learner returned. The distributions are defined by recursion: D(0)D^{(0)}D(0) is uniform, ϵt=∑iDi(t)1[ht(xi)≠yi]\epsilon_t = \sum_i D^{(t)}_i \mathbb{1}[h_t(x_i) \ne y_i]ϵt​=∑i​Di(t)​1[ht​(xi​)=yi​], wt=12log⁡(1/ϵt−1)w_t = \frac12 \log(1/\epsilon_t - 1)wt​=21​log(1/ϵt​−1), and Di(t+1)∝Di(t)exp⁡(−wtyiht(xi))D^{(t+1)}_i \propto D^{(t)}_i \exp(-w_t y_i h_t(x_i))Di(t+1)​∝Di(t)​exp(−wt​yi​ht​(xi​)); the output after TTT rounds is x↦sign⁡(∑t<Twtht(x))x \mapsto \operatorname{sign}(\sum_{t < T} w_t h_t(x))x↦sign(∑t<T​wt​ht​(x)). Rounds are indexed from 000, so D(0)D^{(0)}D(0) is the book's D(1)D^{(1)}D(1). The class L(B,T)L(B, T)L(B,T) of Equation (10.4) consists of the functions x↦sign⁡(∑t=1Twtht(x))x \mapsto \operatorname{sign}(\sum_{t=1}^T w_t h_t(x))x↦sign(∑t=1T​wt​ht​(x)) with ht∈Bh_t \in Bht​∈B. Decision stumps over R\mathbb{R}R are the threshold functions x↦[θ<x]x \mapsto [\theta < x]x↦[θ<x] and their negations x↦[x≤θ]x \mapsto [x \le \theta]x↦[x≤θ]; a 3-piece classifier is bbb outside [θ1,θ2][\theta_1, \theta_2][θ1​,θ2​] and −b-b−b inside, with θ1<θ2\theta_1 < \theta_2θ1​<θ2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 10.2

If γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0 and every round t<Tt < Tt<T has 0<ϵt≤1/2−γ0 < \epsilon_t \le 1/2 - \gamma0<ϵt​≤1/2−γ, then the empirical 0–1 risk of AdaBoost's output after TTT rounds is at most exp⁡(−2γ2T)\exp(-2\gamma^2 T)exp(−2γ2T).

Milestones

§10.1. A class of infinite VC-dimension is not γ-weak-learnable for any γ>0\gamma > 0γ>0 (domain with measurable singletons, measurable hypotheses).

Example 10.1. There is one sample-size function with which every ERM learner over the decision stumps is a 1/121/121/12-weak learner for the 3-piece classifiers.

Exercise 10.3. For a nonempty sample and ϵt∈(0,1)\epsilon_t \in (0,1)ϵt​∈(0,1), the error of hth_tht​ under D(t+1)D^{(t+1)}D(t+1) is exactly 1/21/21/2.

Lemma 10.3. If T≥3T \ge 3T≥3 and VCdim(B)=d≥3\mathrm{VCdim}(B) = d \ge 3VCdim(B)=d≥3, then VCdim(L(B,T))≤T(d+1)(3log⁡(T(d+1))+2)\mathrm{VCdim}(L(B,T)) \le T(d+1)(3\log(T(d+1)) + 2)VCdim(L(B,T))≤T(d+1)(3log(T(d+1))+2).

Further item: Exercise 10.4 (1), VCdim(B)≤VCdim(L(B,T))\mathrm{VCdim}(B) \le \mathrm{VCdim}(L(B,T))VCdim(B)≤VCdim(L(B,T)) for T≥1T \ge 1T≥1.

Significance

Theorem 10.2 is the reason AdaBoost works and the template for every analysis of boosting: a potential function, here 1m∑ie−yift(xi)\frac1m \sum_i e^{-y_i f_t(x_i)}m1​∑i​e−yi​ft​(xi​), bounds the 0–1 training error and contracts by the factor 2ϵt(1−ϵt)≤1−4γ22\sqrt{\epsilon_{t}(1-\epsilon_{t})} \le \sqrt{1 - 4\gamma^2}2ϵt​(1−ϵt​)​≤1−4γ2​ at every round. Lemma 10.3 supplies the other half of the picture, an estimation-error bound growing only like T⋅VCdim(B)T \cdot \mathrm{VCdim}(B)T⋅VCdim(B) up to logarithms, so that Theorem 6.8 turns the pair into a generalization guarantee for boosting. The remark of §10.1 places weak learning in the statistical landscape of Part I: the VC-dimension characterizes it too, and the gain of boosting is computational.

Nothing here is machine-checked. Two points where the book's text needs care are built into the statements. The weight wtw_twt​ is undefined when ϵt=0\epsilon_t = 0ϵt​=0, and the algorithm's normalization then divides 000 by 000; in Lean the logarithm of a negative number is 000, so with ϵt=0\epsilon_t = 0ϵt​=0 the formal algorithm would ignore a perfect weak hypothesis and the bound could fail. The theorems therefore assume ϵt>0\epsilon_t > 0ϵt​>0, which is the case in which the book's formulas are defined. And the book's derivation of "infinite VC-dimension implies not weakly learnable" from the lower bound of Theorem 6.8 at ϵ=1/2−γ\epsilon = 1/2 - \gammaϵ=1/2−γ uses that bound outside the range in which Chapter 28 proves it; the statement itself is true, by the kmkmkm-point form of the No-Free-Lunch argument (Exercise 5.3 of Mission III) and Lemma B.1.

Difficulty

Exercise 10.4 (1) is a one-line embedding of BBB into L(B,T)L(B, T)L(B,T) with the weights (1,0,…,0)(1, 0, \dots, 0)(1,0,…,0) and is the entry point. Exercise 10.3 is the computation of the book: after the update, the weight of the mistakes of hth_tht​ is ewtϵte^{w_t}\epsilon_tewt​ϵt​ and the weight of the correct examples is e−wt(1−ϵt)e^{-w_t}(1 - \epsilon_t)e−wt​(1−ϵt​), and with ewt=(1−ϵt)/ϵte^{w_t} = \sqrt{(1-\epsilon_t)/\epsilon_t}ewt​=(1−ϵt​)/ϵt​​ these are equal. Theorem 10.2 needs, by induction on the round, the closed form Di(t)=e−yift(xi)/∑je−yjft(xj)D^{(t)}_i = e^{-y_i f_{t}(x_i)}/\sum_j e^{-y_j f_{t}(x_j)}Di(t)​=e−yi​ft​(xi​)/∑j​e−yj​ft​(xj​) of the distribution, the pointwise bound 1[sign⁡(f(x))≠y]≤e−yf(x)\mathbb{1}[\operatorname{sign}(f(x)) \ne y] \le e^{-y f(x)}1[sign(f(x))=y]≤e−yf(x) for the sign convention used, the telescoping product (10.2), the identity Zt+1/Zt=2ϵt(1−ϵt)Z_{t+1}/Z_t = 2\sqrt{\epsilon_t(1-\epsilon_t)}Zt+1​/Zt​=2ϵt​(1−ϵt​)​, the monotonicity of a(1−a)a(1-a)a(1−a) on [0,1/2][0, 1/2][0,1/2] and 1−a≤e−a1 - a \le e^{-a}1−a≤e−a. Lemma 10.3 counts dichotomies: Sauer's lemma bounds the restrictions of BBB to a shattered set by (em/d)d(em/d)^d(em/d)d, choosing TTT of them gives (em/d)dT(em/d)^{dT}(em/d)dT, the halfspaces of RT\mathbb{R}^TRT contribute (em/T)T(em/T)^T(em/T)T by Theorem 9.2, and the inequality 2m≤m(d+1)T2^m \le m^{(d+1)T}2m≤m(d+1)T is solved with Lemma A.1; the finite-VC lower bound m≤d+1m \le d + 1m≤d+1 handles small mmm, and the numeric slack of the book's chain must be checked. Example 10.1 combines a geometric observation, that one of the three regions of a 3-piece classifier has mass at most 1/31/31/3 and a stump agrees with the other two, with the agnostic guarantee for ERM over the stumps from Theorem 6.7, applied with accuracy 1/121/121/12; the best stump may only approach error 1/31/31/3 because constant functions are not stumps, and the slack absorbs this. The §10.1 remark is the argument sketched above.

Formalization scope

AdaBoost is a function of the sample and of the returned weak hypotheses; the weak learner's randomness and its failure probability (Remark 10.2) are not modelled, and Theorem 10.2 is the deterministic statement the book proves. Rounds are indexed from 000. The output uses sign⁡(0)=\operatorname{sign}(0) = sign(0)= negative, consistently with Mission VI. The class L(B,T)L(B,T)L(B,T) is a set of functions, so Lemma 10.3 is a statement about the VC-dimension of Mission IV, with the bound taken in N∪{∞}\mathbb{N} \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞} through the integer part of the real right-hand side and the natural logarithm. Decision stumps are closed under negation, as the book's sign⁡(x−θ)⋅b\operatorname{sign}(x - \theta)\cdot bsign(x−θ)⋅b; constant functions are not stumps. The efficient ERM for decision stumps (§10.1.1), the face-recognition features (§10.4), Exercises 10.1, 10.2, 10.4 (2)–(3) and 10.5 are not stated. The claims of §10.3 that piecewise-constant classifiers with TTT pieces lie in L(stumps,T)L(\text{stumps}, T)L(stumps,T) and that this class shatters T+1T+1T+1 points depend on treating sign⁡(x−(−∞))\operatorname{sign}(x - (-\infty))sign(x−(−∞)) as a stump and on the sign convention; with real thresholds, L(stumps,2)L(\text{stumps}, 2)L(stumps,2) does not shatter three points under either convention, so these claims are not stated.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the weak-error hypotheses are strict where the book's formulas require it, the VC bounds are in N∪{∞}\mathbb{N} \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and the weak-learner guarantee quantifies over all distributions and all realizable labelings. Welcome contributions: the closed form of D(t)D^{(t)}D(t), the contraction identity for Zt+1/ZtZ_{t+1}/Z_tZt+1​/Zt​, and the dichotomy count behind Lemma 10.3.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 10. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • Y. Freund, R. E. Schapire, A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 55(1), 1997. doi:10.1006/jcss.1997.1504
  • R. E. Schapire, The strength of weak learnability, Machine Learning 5(2), 1990. doi:10.1007/BF00116037
  • M. Kearns, L. Valiant, Cryptographic limitations on learning Boolean formulae and finite automata, Journal of the ACM 41(1), 1994. doi:10.1145/174644.174647
  • R. E. Schapire, Y. Freund, Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms, MIT Press, 2012.
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Machine LearningOptimization·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning VI: Linear Predictors, the Perceptron and Least SquaresTextbook

Motivation

Part II of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) turns from the theory of learnability to hypothesis classes that can actually be learned by algorithms, and it starts with the family that almost every practical method is built on: linear predictors. Chapter 9 introduces the affine functions LdL_dLd​ and the three classes obtained by composing them with a link: halfspaces for classification, linear regression for real-valued prediction, and logistic regression in between. For each class it gives an ERM algorithm and the guarantee that goes with it. For halfspaces in the separable case the algorithm is Rosenblatt's Perceptron, and the guarantee is the classical mistake bound (Theorem 9.1): the number of updates is at most (RB)2(RB)^2(RB)2, where RRR bounds the data and BBB is the norm of the smallest vector separating it with margin one. The chapter then computes the VC-dimension of halfspaces (Theorems 9.2 and 9.3), which by the fundamental theorem of Mission IV makes them learnable, derives the Least Squares normal equations for regression, and observes that the logistic loss is convex, the property later chapters exploit.

Setting

Vectors live in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd with its Euclidean inner product and norm. The affine functions are hw,b(x)=⟨w,x⟩+bh_{w,b}(x) = \langle w, x\rangle + bhw,b​(x)=⟨w,x⟩+b, homogenous when b=0b = 0b=0; a halfspace hypothesis is x↦sign⁡(⟨w,x⟩+b)x \mapsto \operatorname{sign}(\langle w, x\rangle + b)x↦sign(⟨w,x⟩+b), formalized as a Boolean predictor that is true exactly when ⟨w,x⟩+b>0\langle w, x\rangle + b > 0⟨w,x⟩+b>0 (the book leaves sign⁡(0)\operatorname{sign}(0)sign(0) unspecified; the VC computations do not depend on the convention). A sample (x1,y1),…,(xm,ym)(x_1, y_1), \dots, (x_m, y_m)(x1​,y1​),…,(xm​,ym​) with labels yi∈{±1}y_i \in \{\pm 1\}yi​∈{±1} is separable if some www has yi⟨w,xi⟩>0y_i\langle w, x_i\rangle > 0yi​⟨w,xi​⟩>0 for all iii; the constants of Theorem 9.1 are B=inf⁡{∥w∥:∀i, yi⟨w,xi⟩≥1}B = \inf\{\|w\| : \forall i,\ y_i\langle w, x_i\rangle \ge 1\}B=inf{∥w∥:∀i, yi​⟨w,xi​⟩≥1} and R=max⁡i∥xi∥R = \max_i \|x_i\|R=maxi​∥xi​∥. The Batch Perceptron starts at w(0)=0w^{(0)} = 0w(0)=0 and, while some example has yi⟨w(t),xi⟩≤0y_i\langle w^{(t)}, x_i\rangle \le 0yi​⟨w(t),xi​⟩≤0, adds yixiy_i x_iyi​xi​; since the algorithm may pick any mistaken example, a run is any sequence of updates obeying this rule, and the theorem is stated for all runs. For regression the loss is (h(x)−y)2(h(x) - y)^2(h(x)−y)2 and the Least Squares system is Aw=bAw = bAw=b with A=∑ixixi⊤A = \sum_i x_i x_i^\topA=∑i​xi​xi⊤​, written as the linear map w↦∑i⟨xi,w⟩xiw \mapsto \sum_i \langle x_i, w\rangle x_iw↦∑i​⟨xi​,w⟩xi​, and b=∑iyixib = \sum_i y_i x_ib=∑i​yi​xi​. The logistic function is φsig(z)=1/(1+e−z)\varphi_{sig}(z) = 1/(1 + e^{-z})φsig​(z)=1/(1+e−z) and the logistic loss is log⁡(1+exp⁡(−y⟨w,x⟩))\log(1 + \exp(-y\langle w, x\rangle))log(1+exp(−y⟨w,x⟩)). The learning-theoretic notions (ERM, PAC and agnostic PAC learnability, VC-dimension) are those of Missions I and IV.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9.1 (Perceptron convergence)

For a separable sample with labels in {±1}\{\pm 1\}{±1}, every run of the Batch Perceptron of TTT iterations satisfies T≤(RB)2T \le (RB)^2T≤(RB)2, and some run of at most (RB)2(RB)^2(RB)2 iterations ends with yi⟨w(T),xi⟩>0y_i\langle w^{(T)}, x_i\rangle > 0yi​⟨w(T),xi​⟩>0 for every iii.

Milestones

Equation (9.1). A sample is separable if and only if some www satisfies yi⟨w,xi⟩≥1y_i\langle w, x_i\rangle \ge 1yi​⟨w,xi​⟩≥1 for all iii.

Theorem 9.2. The VC-dimension of the homogenous halfspaces in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd is ddd.

Theorem 9.3. The VC-dimension of the halfspaces in Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd is d+1d+1d+1.

Least Squares (9.6). The system Aw=bAw = bAw=b always has a solution, and www solves it if and only if hwh_whw​ is an ERM hypothesis for the squared loss over the homogenous linear predictors.

Further items: Exercise 9.3, the tightness of Theorem 9.1 (for every mmm a sample with R≤1R \le 1R≤1, (BR)2≤m(BR)^2 \le m(BR)2≤m and a run of exactly mmm updates); the learnability of halfspaces by ERM, a consequence of Theorem 9.3 and the fundamental theorem; Exercise 9.2, AAA is invertible iff the xix_ixi​ span Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd; and the convexity of the logistic loss in www.

Significance

The Perceptron bound is one of the oldest results of learning theory (Novikoff 1962) and the model for every mistake bound in the online-learning chapters: it is independent of the dimension and of the number of examples, depending only on the geometry of the data through RRR and BBB. Theorems 9.2 and 9.3 are the first VC-dimension computations of a class used in practice and give, through Theorem 6.8, the sample complexity Θ((d+log⁡(1/δ))/ϵ)\Theta((d + \log(1/\delta))/\epsilon)Θ((d+log(1/δ))/ϵ) of learning halfspaces. The normal equations are the algorithmic content of linear regression, and the convexity of the logistic loss is why logistic regression is tractable in the nonseparable case, where ERM for halfspaces with the 0–1 loss is hard.

Nothing here is machine-checked in this form. Mathlib has the inner-product geometry, the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality, linear algebra of finite-dimensional spaces and convexity of compositions, but neither the Perceptron nor the VC-dimension of halfspaces.

Difficulty

Equation (9.1) is a rescaling and the intended entry point. The convexity of the logistic loss is the composition of the convex function log⁡(1+e−t)\log(1 + e^{-t})log(1+e−t) with the linear map w↦y⟨w,x⟩w \mapsto y\langle w, x\ranglew↦y⟨w,x⟩. Exercise 9.2 is the identification of the kernel of ∑i⟨xi,⋅⟩xi\sum_i \langle x_i, \cdot\rangle x_i∑i​⟨xi​,⋅⟩xi​ with the orthogonal complement of the span. The normal equations require showing that a convex quadratic is minimized exactly where its gradient vanishes, and that bbb lies in the range of AAA, which is the span of the xix_ixi​. Theorem 9.1 is the book's proof: by induction on the run, ⟨w∗,w(T)⟩≥T\langle w^*, w^{(T)}\rangle \ge T⟨w∗,w(T)⟩≥T and ∥w(T)∥2≤TR2\|w^{(T)}\|^2 \le TR^2∥w(T)∥2≤TR2 for any feasible w∗w^*w∗, then Cauchy–Schwarz, and finally the passage from a feasible w∗w^*w∗ to the infimum BBB; the existence clause follows because a run can be extended as long as the stopping condition fails and all runs are bounded. Theorem 9.2 is the linear-dependence argument of the book, with a case analysis on the signs of the coefficients and on which side is nonempty, and the shattering of the standard basis; Theorem 9.3 lifts it to Rd+1\mathbb{R}^{d+1}Rd+1 by appending a constant coordinate. The learnability of halfspaces is Theorem 6.7 applied to a class that must be shown measurable, nonempty, of finite VC-dimension and pointwise separable; the last needs rational approximations (wn,bn)(w_n, b_n)(wn​,bn​) in which the offset moves below bbb more slowly than wnw_nwn​ approaches www, so that boundary points keep their label.

Formalization scope

Halfspaces are Boolean predictors with sign⁡(0)\operatorname{sign}(0)sign(0) negative; the classes are sets of functions, so the VC-dimension is that of Mission IV. The Perceptron is a relation on sequences, not a program: this captures the algorithm's freedom to choose any mistaken example and makes the bound apply to all implementations. BBB is an infimum, which is attained (the feasible set is closed and the norm is coercive), but the theorem does not need attainment. RRR is a real supremum over the finite index set, equal to 000 for the empty sample, where every run has length 000. The Least Squares statement is about the homogenous class and the sample i↦(xi,yi)i \mapsto (x_i, y_i)i↦(xi​,yi​), with ERM in the sense of Mission I; the bias term is handled by the book's reduction, appending a constant coordinate, and is not formalized separately. The learnability item states qualitative learnability and the ERM guarantee with an unspecified sample-complexity function; the quantitative rate is Theorem 6.8 of Mission IV. Linear programming (§9.1.1), the pseudo-inverse (§9.2.1), polynomial regression (§9.2.2), Exercises 9.1 and 9.4–9.6 are not stated.

Trivializing readings are excluded: labels are constrained to ±1\pm 1±1, runs must start at 000 and update only on mistakes, the VC equalities are in N∪{∞}\mathbb{N} \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}, and the ERM equivalence is a biconditional. Welcome contributions: the two Perceptron invariants as separate lemmas, the shattering of the standard basis, and the pointwise separability of halfspaces.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 9. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • F. Rosenblatt, The perceptron: a probabilistic model for information storage and organization in the brain, Psychological Review 65(6), 1958. doi:10.1037/h0042519
  • A. B. J. Novikoff, On convergence proofs on perceptrons, Proceedings of the Symposium on the Mathematical Theory of Automata 12, 1962.
  • S. Agmon, The relaxation method for linear inequalities, Canadian Journal of Mathematics 6, 1954. doi:10.4153/CJM-1954-037-2
  • S. Ben-David, H. U. Simon, Efficient learning of linear perceptrons, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 13, 2001.
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: naimengye

Understanding Machine Learning V: Nonuniform Learnability, Structural Risk Minimization and Minimum Description LengthTextbook

Motivation

The fundamental theorem of Mission IV says that a class of binary classifiers is PAC learnable exactly when its VC-dimension is finite. That leaves out classes one would like to learn, such as all polynomial classifiers over the line, whose VC-dimension is infinite although each degree separately is learnable. Chapter 7 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) relaxes the definition. In nonuniform learnability (Definition 7.1) the sample size may depend on the hypothesis the learner is competing with: the learner must, for every h∈Hh \in Hh∈H, eventually do as well as hhh up to ϵ\epsilonϵ, but how soon may depend on hhh. The chapter's main result (Theorem 7.2) characterizes the nonuniformly learnable classes of binary classifiers as the countable unions of agnostic PAC learnable classes. The learning rule behind it is Structural Risk Minimization (SRM): write H=⋃nHnH = \bigcup_n H_nH=⋃n​Hn​, weight the pieces, and minimize the empirical risk plus a confidence term that grows with the index (Theorems 7.3–7.5). Applied to a countable class described by a prefix-free code, SRM becomes the Minimum Description Length rule and yields a quantitative form of Occam's razor (Lemma 7.6, Theorem 7.7). The chapter closes the circle with a No-Free-Lunch result for the relaxed notion (Remark 7.2, Exercise 7.5).

Setting

The framework is that of Missions I, II and IV: examples in a domain ZZZ, a hypothesis type with a class HHH, a loss ℓ\ellℓ, risk LDL_DLD​ and empirical risk LSL_SLS​, learners as functions of the sample, the uniform convergence property with an explicit rate mHUCm^{UC}_HmHUC​, agnostic PAC learnability, and for binary classification the 0–1 loss, the VC-dimension and pointwise separability. The new module adds Definition 7.1 with an explicit rate mNULm^{NUL}mNUL and, as in Definition 3.4, learners whose outputs lie in HHH; the same notion for a family of learners indexed by the confidence δ\deltaδ, since the SRM and MDL rules take δ\deltaδ as an input; the rate ϵn(m,δ)=inf⁡{ϵ∈(0,1):mHnUC(ϵ,δ)≤m}\epsilon_n(m,\delta) = \inf\{\epsilon \in (0,1) : m^{UC}_{H_n}(\epsilon,\delta) \le m\}ϵn​(m,δ)=inf{ϵ∈(0,1):mHn​UC​(ϵ,δ)≤m} of Equation (7.1), which is meaningful only when that set is nonempty; the index n(h)=min⁡{n:h∈Hn}n(h) = \min\{n : h \in H_n\}n(h)=min{n:h∈Hn​} of Equation (7.4); the SRM rule as a minimizer of LS(h)+ϵn(h)(m,w(n(h))δ)L_S(h) + \epsilon_{n(h)}(m, w(n(h))\delta)LS​(h)+ϵn(h)​(m,w(n(h))δ) over the admissible hypotheses, those whose index has positive weight and a defined rate; prefix-free description languages d:H→{0,1}∗d : H \to \{0,1\}^*d:H→{0,1}∗ and the MDL rule; and shattering of an infinite set.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.2

For a class HHH of measurable binary classifiers over a domain with measurable singletons, every subclass of which is pointwise separable, HHH is nonuniformly learnable if and only if there are classes HnH_nHn​ with ⋃nHn=H\bigcup_n H_n = H⋃n​Hn​=H, each agnostic PAC learnable.

Milestones

Theorem 7.3. If H=⋃nHnH = \bigcup_n H_nH=⋃n​Hn​ is nonempty and each HnH_nHn​ has the uniform convergence property, then HHH is nonuniformly learnable (general loss).

Theorem 7.4. For weights w(n)∈[0,1]w(n) \in [0,1]w(n)∈[0,1] with partial sums at most 111, uniformly convergent pieces HnH_nHn​ with rates mHnUCm^{UC}_{H_n}mHn​UC​, δ∈(0,1)\delta \in (0,1)δ∈(0,1), any DDD and any mmm: with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for every nnn with w(n)>0w(n) > 0w(n)>0 at which ϵn(m,w(n)δ)\epsilon_n(m, w(n)\delta)ϵn​(m,w(n)δ) is defined and every h∈Hnh \in H_nh∈Hn​, ∣LD(h)−LS(h)∣≤ϵn(m,w(n)δ)|L_D(h) - L_S(h)| \le \epsilon_n(m, w(n)\delta)∣LD​(h)−LS​(h)∣≤ϵn​(m,w(n)δ).

Theorem 7.5. With w(n)=6/(π2n2)w(n) = 6/(\pi^2 n^2)w(n)=6/(π2n2) and H0=∅H_0 = \emptysetH0​=∅, every family of learners implementing the SRM rule satisfies the nonuniform guarantee with rate mNUL(ϵ,δ,h)=mHn(h)UC(ϵ/2, 6δ/(πn(h))2)m^{NUL}(\epsilon,\delta,h) = m^{UC}_{H_{n(h)}}(\epsilon/2,\ 6\delta/(\pi n(h))^2)mNUL(ϵ,δ,h)=mHn(h)​UC​(ϵ/2, 6δ/(πn(h))2).

Lemma 7.6 (Kraft). For a prefix-free set SSS of binary strings, every finite subfamily satisfies ∑σ2−∣σ∣≤1\sum_{\sigma} 2^{-|\sigma|} \le 1∑σ​2−∣σ∣≤1.

Theorem 7.7. For a prefix-free description language on a class with a [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued loss, m≥1m \ge 1m≥1 and δ>0\delta > 0δ>0: with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, every h∈Hh \in Hh∈H satisfies LD(h)≤LS(h)+(∣h∣+ln⁡(2/δ))/(2m)L_D(h) \le L_S(h) + \sqrt{(|h| + \ln(2/\delta))/(2m)}LD​(h)≤LS​(h)+(∣h∣+ln(2/δ))/(2m)​.

Further items: nonuniform learnability is implied by agnostic PAC learnability (§7.1); a nonuniformly learnable class of binary classifiers is a countable union of classes of finite VC-dimension (Exercise 7.5 (1)–(2)); a class shattering an infinite set admits no countable cover by classes of finite VC-dimension (Exercise 7.5 (3)) and is not nonuniformly learnable; over an infinite domain the class of all measurable classifiers is not nonuniformly learnable (Remark 7.2).

Significance

Theorem 7.2 is the second characterization theorem of the book's Part I and the one that explains why model selection works: any class that can be stratified into learnable pieces is learnable in the nonuniform sense, with the price of not knowing the index paid in sample size rather than in principle. SRM is the abstract form of every penalized learning rule, and the MDL bound of Theorem 7.7 is the cleanest instance, a bound in which the only property of the hypothesis that matters is the length of its description. Remark 7.2 shows the relaxation is not free: even nonuniformly, no learner handles all classifiers over an infinite domain.

Nothing here is machine-checked. The chapter's arguments are short but they combine everything before them: Hoeffding, the union bound with weights, the VC lower bound of Corollary 6.4 and the fundamental theorem. Three places where the book's statements need care are recorded in the formalization: the rate ϵn\epsilon_nϵn​ is an infimum that may be undefined for small mmm; the SRM rule takes δ\deltaδ as an input and so is a family of learners; and the fundamental theorem's uniform-convergence direction needs a measurability condition, which appears in Theorem 7.2 as hereditary pointwise separability.

Difficulty

The relaxation remark is a direct comparison of two definitions. Kraft's inequality is the coin-tossing argument of the book or an induction on the maximal length: it is the intended entry point. Theorem 7.4 is Theorem 7.3's engine: for each index and each ϵ\epsilonϵ in the set of Equation (7.1), the uniform convergence property bounds the failure by w(n)δw(n)\deltaw(n)δ; the passage from "every ϵ\epsilonϵ in the set" to the infimum uses continuity of the outer measure along an increasing union; the union over nnn uses countable subadditivity and the partial-sum condition. Theorem 7.5 is Theorem 7.4 on the good event together with the two inequalities of the book's proof, using that the target is admissible when m≥mHn(h)UC(ϵ/2,w(n(h))δ)m \ge m^{UC}_{H_{n(h)}}(\epsilon/2, w(n(h))\delta)m≥mHn(h)​UC​(ϵ/2,w(n(h))δ) and that admissibility of the SRM output gives the bound for it. Theorem 7.3 asks for a single learner: SRM with a confidence schedule δm→0\delta_m \to 0δm​→0 chosen so that, for each fixed index, the rate at level δm\delta_mδm​ eventually falls below any ϵ\epsilonϵ, together with an approximate minimizer within 1/m1/m1/m; the target hypothesis is admissible for mmm large. Theorem 7.7 is Theorem 7.4 with singleton pieces and the weights 2−∣h∣2^{-|h|}2−∣h∣, a one-sided Hoeffding bound for each hhh, and Kraft's inequality. Exercise 7.5 (3) is the combinatorial construction of the book's hint, disjoint finite subsets KnK_nKn​ of the shattered set with ∣Kn∣>VCdim(Hn)|K_n| > \mathrm{VCdim}(H_n)∣Kn​∣>VCdim(Hn​) and a labeling that no HnH_nHn​ realizes. The first half of Theorem 7.2 is Corollary 6.4 applied to the nonuniform learner at fixed ϵ0,δ0\epsilon_0, \delta_0ϵ0​,δ0​, with constants chosen so that the two probability bounds actually contradict; the second half is the fundamental theorem on each piece followed by Theorem 7.3.

Formalization scope

Learners output hypotheses in HHH, in Definition 7.1 as in Definition 3.4. The rate ϵn\epsilon_nϵn​ is an infimum over the set of Equation (7.1), and every statement that uses it is guarded by the nonemptiness of that set; the weight w(n)w(n)w(n) may be 000, and H0=∅H_0 = \emptysetH0​=∅ encodes the book's indices 1,2,…1, 2, \dots1,2,…. The SRM rule minimizes over admissible hypotheses, and an SRM family is one that returns an admissible minimizer whenever some hypothesis is admissible, which is the book's assumption that the argmin is attained (automatic for the 0–1 loss). Theorem 7.4's sum condition is on partial sums, and Kraft's inequality is on finite subfamilies, so no divergent series is silently zero. Theorem 7.7 assumes a [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued loss and m≥1m \ge 1m≥1. The binary-classification results assume measurable singletons and measurable hypotheses; Theorem 7.2 also assumes every subclass pointwise separable, which every class over a countable domain satisfies. Definition 7.8 (consistency) and the Memorize algorithm of §7.4 are not stated.

Trivializing readings are excluded: outputs in HHH keep the risk an honest integral, the rate is never a junk infimum of the empty set, and the failure events are bounded in outer measure. Welcome contributions: a reusable weighted union bound over a countable family of uniform-convergence events, the continuity argument for the infimum rate, and the shattered-set combinatorics of Exercise 7.5.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 7. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer, 1995. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-2440-0
  • J. Rissanen, Modeling by shortest data description, Automatica 14(5), 1978. doi:10.1016/0005-1098(78)90005-5
  • A. Blumer, A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, M. K. Warmuth, Occam's razor, Information Processing Letters 24(6), 1987. doi:10.1016/0020-0190(87)90114-1
  • L. G. Kraft, A device for quantizing, grouping, and coding amplitude modulated pulses, MSc thesis, MIT, 1949.
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Understanding Machine Learning III: The No-Free-Lunch TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Missions I and II of this series showed that finite hypothesis classes are learnable, with and without the realizability assumption, by empirical risk minimization. Chapter 5 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) asks the converse question: is prior knowledge, in the form of a restricted hypothesis class, really necessary? Could there be a universal learner, an algorithm that, given enough examples from any distribution, outputs a predictor of low risk? The No-Free-Lunch theorem (Theorem 5.1) answers no: for binary classification with the 0–1 loss over a domain XXX, for every learning algorithm and every training-set size mmm smaller than ∣X∣/2|X|/2∣X∣/2 there is a distribution on which the learner fails with probability at least 1/71/71/7, even though that distribution is perfectly predictable by some function fff, so that another learner (ERM over {f}\{f\}{f}) succeeds. The consequence for the framework is Corollary 5.2: over an infinite domain, the class of all functions is not PAC learnable. This is the first lower bound of the book and the reason the rest of it is about the complexity of hypothesis classes rather than about universal algorithms.

Setting

The framework is the UnderstandingML_Framework module of Mission I, cited as a reference. Binary classification over a domain XXX uses examples in X×{0,1}X \times \{0,1\}X×{0,1}, hypotheses h:X→{0,1}h : X \to \{0,1\}h:X→{0,1} and the 0–1 loss, so the risk of hhh under a distribution DDD over X×{0,1}X \times \{0,1\}X×{0,1} is LD(h)=D({(x,y):h(x)≠y})L_D(h) = D(\{(x,y) : h(x) \ne y\})LD​(h)=D({(x,y):h(x)=y}), computed as the integral of the 0–1 loss. A learner is a function from samples of each size to hypotheses, and a sample of size mmm has the law DmD^mDm. PAC learnability of a class HHH (Definition 3.1) requires a sample-complexity function mHm_HmH​ and a learner AAA such that for every ϵ,δ∈(0,1)\epsilon, \delta \in (0,1)ϵ,δ∈(0,1), every distribution DDD over XXX and every measurable labeling function fff realizable by HHH, samples of size m≥mH(ϵ,δ)m \ge m_H(\epsilon,\delta)m≥mH​(ϵ,δ) yield L(D,f)(A(S))≤ϵL_{(D,f)}(A(S)) \le \epsilonL(D,f)​(A(S))≤ϵ with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ.

Two conventions specific to this mission. The domain XXX is assumed to have measurable singletons (the book's Remark 3.1 assumes away measurability issues); this makes the finitely supported distributions of the proof honest probability measures and makes every LD(h)L_D(h)LD​(h) under them a genuine integral. And "mmm smaller than ∣X∣/2|X|/2∣X∣/2" is written 2m<∣X∣2m < |X|2m<∣X∣ in the extended natural numbers, so that an infinite domain satisfies it for every mmm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (No-Free-Lunch)

Let AAA be any learning algorithm for binary classification with respect to the 0–1 loss over a domain XXX with measurable singletons, and let mmm be a training-set size with 2m<∣X∣2m < |X|2m<∣X∣. Then there exists a probability distribution DDD over X×{0,1}X \times \{0,1\}X×{0,1} such that

  1. there is a measurable f:X→{0,1}f : X \to \{0,1\}f:X→{0,1} with LD(f)=0L_D(f) = 0LD​(f)=0;
  2. there is a measurable set EEE of samples of size mmm with Dm(E)≥1/7D^m(E) \ge 1/7Dm(E)≥1/7 on which LD(A(S))≥1/8L_D(A(S)) \ge 1/8LD​(A(S))≥1/8.

Milestones

Lemma B.1 (Appendix B). If ZZZ takes values in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and E[Z]=μE[Z] = \muE[Z]=μ, then for every a∈(0,1)a \in (0,1)a∈(0,1), P[Z>1−a]≥(μ−(1−a))/aP[Z > 1-a] \ge (\mu - (1-a))/aP[Z>1−a]≥(μ−(1−a))/a, and consequently P[Z>a]≥(μ−a)/(1−a)≥μ−aP[Z > a] \ge (\mu - a)/(1-a) \ge \mu - aP[Z>a]≥(μ−a)/(1−a)≥μ−a.

Equation (5.2). Under the hypotheses of Theorem 5.1 there are DDD and a measurable fff with LD(f)=0L_D(f) = 0LD​(f)=0 and ES∼Dm[LD(A(S))]≥1/4\mathbb{E}_{S \sim D^m}[L_D(A(S))] \ge 1/4ES∼Dm​[LD​(A(S))]≥1/4.

Corollary 5.2. For an infinite domain XXX with measurable singletons, the class of all functions X→{0,1}X \to \{0,1\}X→{0,1} is not PAC learnable.

Two further items: Exercise 5.1, the passage from an expectation of at least 1/41/41/4 to a probability of at least 1/71/71/7 of exceeding 1/81/81/8 for a [0,1][0,1][0,1]-valued variable; and Exercise 5.3, the kkk-fold version of Equation (5.2), with bound 1/2−1/(2k)1/2 - 1/(2k)1/2−1/(2k) when km≤∣X∣km \le |X|km≤∣X∣, k≥2k \ge 2k≥2 and XXX is nonempty.

Significance

The No-Free-Lunch theorem is the book's first impossibility result and the conceptual pivot of Part I: it shows that learnability is a property of the pair (hypothesis class, learner) and not of the learner alone, and it motivates the bias–complexity tradeoff of §5.2 and the VC-dimension of Chapter 6, whose lower bound (Theorem 6.7, the "only if" direction of the fundamental theorem) is proved by the same symmetrization argument. Corollary 5.2 is the statement that the class of all functions has infinite sample complexity, the negative half of the characterization of learnable classes.

Nothing here is machine-checked. The proof is combinatorial and elementary but has real content for a formalization: a finite subset CCC of the domain, the 22m2^{2m}22m labelings of CCC, the uniform distribution on CCC labeled by each of them, an exchange of a maximum, an average and a minimum over labelings and sample sequences, and a pairing argument on labelings that differ at exactly one unseen point. Lemma B.1 is a reverse Markov inequality for bounded variables that later chapters also use.

Difficulty

Lemma B.1 is Markov's inequality applied to 1−Z1 - Z1−Z and is the entry point; Exercise 5.1 is its instance with a=1/8a = 1/8a=1/8 and μ≥1/4\mu \ge 1/4μ≥1/4, giving (1/4−1/8)/(7/8)=1/7(1/4 - 1/8)/(7/8) = 1/7(1/4−1/8)/(7/8)=1/7, together with the inclusion of {θ>1/8}\{\theta > 1/8\}{θ>1/8} in {θ≥1/8}\{\theta \ge 1/8\}{θ≥1/8}. Theorem 5.1 follows from Equation (5.2) and Exercise 5.1 once one knows that S↦LD(A(S))S \mapsto L_D(A(S))S↦LD​(A(S)) is, under the finitely supported DmD^mDm, almost everywhere equal to a measurable function with values in [0,1][0,1][0,1]; the set EEE is the intersection of the event with the finite support of DmD^mDm, which is measurable because singletons are. Equation (5.2) is the heart of the mission. One picks C⊆XC \subseteq XC⊆X of size 2m2m2m (available because 2m<∣X∣2m < |X|2m<∣X∣), lets DiD_iDi​ be uniform on CCC labeled by the iii-th function fi:C→{0,1}f_i : C \to \{0,1\}fi​:C→{0,1} extended by 000 off CCC, and computes ES∼Dim[LDi(A(S))]\mathbb{E}_{S \sim D_i^m}[L_{D_i}(A(S))]ES∼Dim​​[LDi​​(A(S))] as an average over the (2m)m(2m)^m(2m)m sequences of instances, which requires identifying DimD_i^mDim​ as a finitely supported measure on sequences, that is, the product of finitely supported measures. The inequalities (5.4)–(5.6) exchange max, average and min and restrict to the unseen points, and the pairing argument shows that for each unseen point the average over iii of the indicator that AAA errs on it is exactly 1/21/21/2. Exercise 5.3 is the same argument with ∣C∣=km|C| = km∣C∣=km, where at least (k−1)m(k-1)m(k−1)m points are unseen. Corollary 5.2 takes ϵ<1/8\epsilon < 1/8ϵ<1/8, δ<1/7\delta < 1/7δ<1/7, m=mH(ϵ,δ)m = m_H(\epsilon,\delta)m=mH​(ϵ,δ) and a set CCC of size 2m2m2m in the infinite domain, and derives the contradiction from Theorem 5.1 via the identification of LDL_DLD​ for DDD uniform on CCC labeled by fff with the true error L(DX,f)L_{(D_X, f)}L(DX​,f)​ of Definition 3.1, where DXD_XDX​ is uniform on CCC; the case m=0m = 0m=0 is handled separately with a single point.

Formalization scope

The items are stated in the joint-distribution form of the book's Chapter 5, with DDD over X×{0,1}X \times \{0,1\}X×{0,1} and LDL_DLD​ the risk under the 0–1 loss, rather than in the (D,f)(D, f)(D,f) form of Definition 3.1; Corollary 5.2 is the bridge and is stated with the framework's PACLearnable. Witness labeling functions are required to be measurable, because a non-measurable fff would make LD(f)=0L_D(f) = 0LD​(f)=0 true by Lean's convention for non-integrable functions rather than by content. Clause (2) of Theorem 5.1 is stated in the inner form (a measurable set of probability at least 1/71/71/7 inside the event) rather than as a lower bound on the outer measure of the event, which for a non-measurable event would be the weaker statement. The size condition uses ENat.card, so infinite domains satisfy it. Learners are deterministic functions of the sample; the book's argument goes through for randomized learners by averaging, but the framework does not model them.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the distribution must be a probability measure, the failing set must be measurable with an honest lower bound, and the witness fff must be measurable. Welcome contributions: the finitely supported product law on sequences, the averaging identity (5.3), and the pairing argument on labelings of CCC.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 5 and Appendix B. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • D. H. Wolpert, W. G. Macready, No free lunch theorems for optimization, IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 1(1), 1997. doi:10.1109/4235.585893
  • A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, M. Kearns, L. Valiant, A general lower bound on the number of examples needed for learning, Information and Computation 82(3), 1989. doi:10.1016/0890-5401(89)90002-3
  • V. N. Vapnik, Statistical Learning Theory, Wiley, 1998.
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Understanding Machine Learning II: Learning via Uniform ConvergenceTextbook

Motivation

Mission I of this series set up the statistical learning framework of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019) and proved, in the book's Chapters 2 and 3, that finite classes are PAC learnable under the realizability assumption. Chapter 4 removes that assumption. Its idea is the one that organizes the rest of the theory: if the empirical risks LS(h)L_S(h)LS​(h) of all hypotheses in HHH are simultaneously close to their true risks LD(h)L_D(h)LD​(h), then minimizing LSL_SLS​ over HHH is nearly as good as minimizing LDL_DLD​ over HHH, whatever the distribution DDD is. A sample with that property is called ϵ\epsilonϵ-representative (Definition 4.1), and a class for which representative samples are guaranteed at some sample size is said to have the uniform convergence property (Definition 4.3). Lemma 4.2 turns representativeness into a guarantee for ERM, Corollary 4.4 turns uniform convergence into agnostic PAC learnability, Hoeffding's inequality (Lemma 4.5) gives uniform convergence for a single hypothesis, and a union bound gives it for a finite class: Corollary 4.6, the capstone, says every finite class with a loss in [0,1][0,1][0,1] is agnostic PAC learnable by ERM with sample complexity ⌈2log⁡(2∣H∣/δ)/ϵ2⌉\lceil 2\log(2|H|/\delta)/\epsilon^2 \rceil⌈2log(2∣H∣/δ)/ϵ2⌉.

Setting

The framework is the UnderstandingML_Framework module of Mission I, cited here as a reference. A domain ZZZ is a measurable space, hypotheses form a type with a class HHH, and a loss ℓ:H×Z→R\ell : H \times Z \to \mathbb{R}ℓ:H×Z→R is given. The risk is LD(h)=Ez∼D ℓ(h,z)L_D(h) = \mathbb{E}_{z \sim D}\,\ell(h,z)LD​(h)=Ez∼D​ℓ(h,z), the empirical risk on S=(z1,…,zm)S = (z_1,\dots,z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​) is LS(h)=1m∑iℓ(h,zi)L_S(h) = \frac1m \sum_i \ell(h, z_i)LS​(h)=m1​∑i​ℓ(h,zi​), and a sample of size mmm has the product law DmD^mDm. A hypothesis is an ERM hypothesis for SSS if it lies in HHH and minimizes LSL_SLS​ over HHH; a learner is a function from samples of each size to hypotheses, and an ERM learner returns an ERM hypothesis on every sample.

SSS is ϵ\epsilonϵ-representative with respect to HHH, ℓ\ellℓ and DDD if ∣LS(h)−LD(h)∣≤ϵ|L_S(h) - L_D(h)| \le \epsilon∣LS​(h)−LD​(h)∣≤ϵ for every h∈Hh \in Hh∈H. HHH has the uniform convergence property with the function mHUCm^{UC}_HmHUC​ if for every ϵ,δ∈(0,1)\epsilon, \delta \in (0,1)ϵ,δ∈(0,1) and every distribution DDD over ZZZ, a sample of m≥mHUC(ϵ,δ)m \ge m^{UC}_H(\epsilon, \delta)m≥mHUC​(ϵ,δ) i.i.d. examples is ϵ\epsilonϵ-representative with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ. HHH is agnostic PAC learnable with the function mHm_HmH​ and the learner AAA if AAA returns hypotheses in HHH and, for every ϵ,δ∈(0,1)\epsilon, \delta \in (0,1)ϵ,δ∈(0,1), every DDD and every m≥mH(ϵ,δ)m \ge m_H(\epsilon,\delta)m≥mH​(ϵ,δ), LD(A(S))≤min⁡h′∈HLD(h′)+ϵL_D(A(S)) \le \min_{h' \in H} L_D(h') + \epsilonLD​(A(S))≤minh′∈H​LD​(h′)+ϵ with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ over S∼DmS \sim D^mS∼Dm. As in Mission I, "with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ" is an upper bound δ\deltaδ on the outer measure of the failure event, "min⁡h′∈HLD(h′)+ϵ<LD(h)\min_{h' \in H} L_D(h') + \epsilon < L_D(h)minh′∈H​LD​(h′)+ϵ<LD​(h)" is written as "∃h′∈H\exists h' \in H∃h′∈H, LD(h′)+ϵ<LD(h)L_D(h') + \epsilon < L_D(h)LD​(h′)+ϵ<LD​(h)", and sample-complexity functions are carried explicitly rather than as minimal functions.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 4.6

Let HHH be a finite hypothesis class, ZZZ a domain and ℓ:H×Z→[0,1]\ell : H \times Z \to [0,1]ℓ:H×Z→[0,1] a loss function whose sections ℓ(h,⋅)\ell(h,\cdot)ℓ(h,⋅) are measurable. Then

  1. HHH has the uniform convergence property with the function mHUC(ϵ,δ)=⌈log⁡(2∣H∣/δ)/(2ϵ2)⌉m^{UC}_H(\epsilon,\delta) = \lceil \log(2|H|/\delta)/(2\epsilon^2) \rceilmHUC​(ϵ,δ)=⌈log(2∣H∣/δ)/(2ϵ2)⌉;
  2. every ERM learner for HHH is an agnostic PAC learner with the function mH(ϵ,δ)=⌈2log⁡(2∣H∣/δ)/ϵ2⌉m_H(\epsilon,\delta) = \lceil 2\log(2|H|/\delta)/\epsilon^2 \rceilmH​(ϵ,δ)=⌈2log(2∣H∣/δ)/ϵ2⌉, which is mHUC(ϵ/2,δ)m^{UC}_H(\epsilon/2,\delta)mHUC​(ϵ/2,δ);
  3. if HHH is nonempty, HHH is agnostic PAC learnable.

Milestones

Lemma 4.2. If SSS is ϵ/2\epsilon/2ϵ/2-representative and hSh_ShS​ is an ERM hypothesis for SSS, then LD(hS)≤LD(h)+ϵL_D(h_S) \le L_D(h) + \epsilonLD​(hS​)≤LD​(h)+ϵ for every h∈Hh \in Hh∈H.

Corollary 4.4. If HHH has the uniform convergence property with mHUCm^{UC}_HmHUC​, then every ERM learner for HHH is an agnostic PAC learner with the function (ϵ,δ)↦mHUC(ϵ/2,δ)(\epsilon,\delta) \mapsto m^{UC}_H(\epsilon/2, \delta)(ϵ,δ)↦mHUC​(ϵ/2,δ), and HHH is agnostic PAC learnable as soon as an ERM learner exists.

Lemma 4.5 (Hoeffding's inequality). For a probability measure DDD, a measurable θ\thetaθ with a≤θ≤ba \le \theta \le ba≤θ≤b almost surely and mean μ=∫θ dD\mu = \int \theta\,dDμ=∫θdD, and ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0,

Dm[∣1m∑i=1mθ(ωi)−μ∣>ϵ]≤2exp⁡ ⁣(−2mϵ2/(b−a)2).D^m\Big[\Big|\tfrac1m \textstyle\sum_{i=1}^m \theta(\omega_i) - \mu\Big| > \epsilon\Big] \le 2\exp\!\big(-2m\epsilon^2/(b-a)^2\big).Dm[​m1​∑i=1m​θ(ωi​)−μ​>ϵ]≤2exp(−2mϵ2/(b−a)2).

Significance

Chapter 4 is where the book's account of learnability becomes distribution-free in the agnostic sense: nothing is assumed about DDD beyond being a probability distribution, and the guarantee is relative to the best hypothesis in the class. Lemma 4.2 and Corollary 4.4 are the reduction that every later generalization bound in the book (VC dimension, Rademacher complexity, covering numbers, compression) plugs into: prove uniform convergence, get ERM learnability. Corollary 4.6 is the first instance, and its log⁡∣H∣/ϵ2\log|H|/\epsilon^2log∣H∣/ϵ2 dependence, against the log⁡∣H∣/ϵ\log|H|/\epsilonlog∣H∣/ϵ of the realizable case, is the standard illustration of the price of agnosticism. Hoeffding's inequality is stated in the form the book uses everywhere afterward, for the product law of one distribution, with an almost-sure range bound and the mean written as an integral.

Nothing here is machine-checked. Mathlib has no Hoeffding inequality for sums of i.i.d. bounded variables on a product measure in this form, so Lemma 4.5 is a genuine contribution; its proof in the book's Appendix B goes through Hoeffding's lemma on the moment generating function of a bounded centered variable and the Chernoff bounding method, both of which will be needed by the concentration results of later missions.

Difficulty

Lemma 4.2 is three inequalities on real numbers and is the intended entry point. Corollary 4.4 is Lemma 4.2 applied on the complement of the failure event of uniform convergence at ϵ/2\epsilon/2ϵ/2: the failure set of the learner is contained in the failure set of representativeness, and outer measure is monotone. Hoeffding's inequality is the substantial item: one needs the moment generating function bound E eλ(θ−μ)≤eλ2(b−a)2/8\mathbb{E}\,e^{\lambda(\theta-\mu)} \le e^{\lambda^2(b-a)^2/8}Eeλ(θ−μ)≤eλ2(b−a)2/8 (Lemma B.7 of the book, by convexity of the exponential on [a,b][a,b][a,b]), independence of the coordinates under Measure.pi to factor the expectation of the product, Markov's inequality, and the optimization over λ\lambdaλ; the two tails are treated separately and added. The degenerate cases are genuine: for m=0m = 0m=0 the bound is 222 and the claim holds trivially, and for a=ba = ba=b Lean's convention x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0 makes the bound 222 again. Corollary 4.6 combines Hoeffding for each h∈Hh \in Hh∈H with a union bound over the finite class and an arithmetic step showing that m≥log⁡(2∣H∣/δ)/(2ϵ2)m \ge \log(2|H|/\delta)/(2\epsilon^2)m≥log(2∣H∣/δ)/(2ϵ2) gives 2∣H∣e−2mϵ2≤δ2|H|e^{-2m\epsilon^2} \le \delta2∣H∣e−2mϵ2≤δ; the empty class makes the uniform convergence clause vacuous. The second and third clauses of the goal then follow from Corollary 4.4, the third by exhibiting an ERM learner, which exists for a nonempty finite class by choosing a minimizer of LSL_SLS​.

Formalization scope

The four items live in the general loss framework, not the binary-classification special case, because the chapter is stated for an arbitrary loss; Mission I's IsRepresentative and HasUniformConvergenceWith already carry the chapter's definitions, so no new definition module is introduced. Losses in Corollary 4.6 are real-valued with the range condition ℓ(h,z)∈[0,1]\ell(h,z) \in [0,1]ℓ(h,z)∈[0,1] for every zzz and measurability of ℓ(h,⋅)\ell(h,\cdot)ℓ(h,⋅) for h∈Hh \in Hh∈H, which is what the book's "ℓ:H×Z→[0,1]\ell : H \times Z \to [0,1]ℓ:H×Z→[0,1]" and Remark 3.1 give. The book's "mH(ϵ,δ)≤⋯m_H(\epsilon,\delta) \le \cdotsmH​(ϵ,δ)≤⋯" is stated as "the guarantee holds with the function ⌈⋯ ⌉\lceil \cdots \rceil⌈⋯⌉", the same convention as Mission I. In Corollary 4.4 the ERM clause is universal over ERM learners, matching "the ERM paradigm is a successful agnostic PAC learner" for every choice of minimizer; the existence of an ERM learner is a separate hypothesis for the learnability clause because a class with no minimizers on some sample has no ERM rule. Hoeffding's inequality is on i.i.d. coordinates of Measure.pi; the book's "E[θi]=μE[\theta_i] = \muE[θi​]=μ" is the definition of μ\muμ rather than an assumption.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the failure events are bounded in outer measure, so measurability of the events is not a loophole; representativeness is required for every h∈Hh \in Hh∈H; the sample-complexity functions are the book's, with ceilings. Welcome contributions: Hoeffding's lemma on bounded centered variables, the factorization of the moment generating function under Measure.pi, and a reusable union bound over a finite class.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 4 and Appendix B. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • W. Hoeffding, Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963. doi:10.1080/01621459.1963.10500830
  • V. N. Vapnik, A. Ya. Chervonenkis, On the uniform convergence of relative frequencies of events to their probabilities, Theory of Probability and its Applications 16(2), 1971. doi:10.1137/1116025
  • S. Boucheron, G. Lugosi, P. Massart, Concentration Inequalities: A Nonasymptotic Theory of Independence, Oxford University Press, 2013, Chapter 2. doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535255.001.0001
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Understanding Machine Learning I: The Statistical Learning Framework, ERM and Finite ClassesTextbook

Motivation

Chapters 2 and 3 of Shalev-Shwartz and Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms (Cambridge University Press, 2014, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019), set up the framework in which the whole book asks what learning is. A learner sees a sample drawn independently from an unknown distribution over examples, chooses a hypothesis from a class fixed in advance, and is judged by its risk, the expected loss on a fresh example. The natural rule is Empirical Risk Minimization: pick a hypothesis that does best on the sample. Chapter 2 shows that ERM over an unrestricted class overfits, that restricting the class is what makes learning possible, and that a finite class never overfits once the sample is larger than log⁡(∣H∣/δ)/ϵ\log(|H|/\delta)/\epsilonlog(∣H∣/δ)/ϵ (Corollary 2.3). Chapter 3 turns this into a definition, Probably Approximately Correct learnability with its sample-complexity function mH(ϵ,δ)m_H(\epsilon, \delta)mH​(ϵ,δ), restates the finite-class result as Corollary 3.2, and then generalizes in two directions that the rest of the book lives in: the agnostic model, in which no hypothesis need be perfect and the learner competes with the best hypothesis in the class, and general loss functions, which cover regression, multiclass prediction and unsupervised tasks. Chapter 4 adds the notion of an ε-representative sample and of uniform convergence, the tool by which the finite-class result extends to the agnostic case; its definitions are included here since they complete the framework.

Setting

A domain ZZZ of examples, a class HHH of hypotheses and a loss ℓ:H×Z→R\ell : H \times Z \to \mathbb{R}ℓ:H×Z→R. The risk of hhh under a distribution DDD is LD(h)=Ez∼D ℓ(h,z)L_D(h) = \mathbb{E}_{z \sim D}\,\ell(h, z)LD​(h)=Ez∼D​ℓ(h,z) and its empirical risk on S=(z1,…,zm)S = (z_1, \dots, z_m)S=(z1​,…,zm​) is LS(h)=1m∑iℓ(h,zi)L_S(h) = \frac1m\sum_i \ell(h, z_i)LS​(h)=m1​∑i​ℓ(h,zi​); a sample is drawn i.i.d., S∼DmS \sim D^mS∼Dm; an ERM hypothesis minimizes LSL_SLS​ over HHH; a learning algorithm maps samples of each size to hypotheses. In binary classification the examples are (x,f(x))(x, f(x))(x,f(x)) with x∼Dx \sim Dx∼D over XXX and fff a labeling function, and the true error is L(D,f)(h)=D({x:h(x)≠f(x)})L_{(D,f)}(h) = D(\{x : h(x) \ne f(x)\})L(D,f)​(h)=D({x:h(x)=f(x)}); the realizability assumption says some h⋆∈Hh^\star \in Hh⋆∈H has L(D,f)(h⋆)=0L_{(D,f)}(h^\star) = 0L(D,f)​(h⋆)=0. HHH is PAC learnable if some sample-complexity function mHm_HmH​ and algorithm guarantee, for all ϵ,δ∈(0,1)\epsilon, \delta \in (0,1)ϵ,δ∈(0,1), all DDD and all realizable fff, true error at most ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ from m≥mH(ϵ,δ)m \ge m_H(\epsilon, \delta)m≥mH​(ϵ,δ) examples; agnostic PAC learnability with respect to a loss asks instead for LD(h)≤min⁡h′∈HLD(h′)+ϵL_D(h) \le \min_{h' \in H} L_D(h') + \epsilonLD​(h)≤minh′∈H​LD​(h′)+ϵ for every distribution over ZZZ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 3.2

Every finite hypothesis class is PAC learnable with sample complexity

mH(ϵ,δ)≤⌈log⁡(∣H∣/δ)ϵ⌉,m_H(\epsilon, \delta) \le \Big\lceil \frac{\log(|H|/\delta)}{\epsilon} \Big\rceil,mH​(ϵ,δ)≤⌈ϵlog(∣H∣/δ)​⌉,

by the ERM rule: for a nonempty finite class of measurable hypotheses there is an ERM learner satisfying the PAC guarantee with that sample-complexity function.

Milestone

Corollary 2.3: under realizability, with m≥log⁡(∣H∣/δ)/ϵm \ge \log(|H|/\delta)/\epsilonm≥log(∣H∣/δ)/ϵ examples, every ERM hypothesis has true error at most ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ.

Significance

Corollaries 2.3 and 3.2 are the first learning theorem of the book and the template for all later sample-complexity bounds: a bad hypothesis is consistent with an i.i.d. sample with probability at most (1−ϵ)m≤e−ϵm(1 - \epsilon)^m \le e^{-\epsilon m}(1−ϵ)m≤e−ϵm, and a union bound over the class turns this into a guarantee that holds uniformly over all distributions and all realizable labelings. Everything that follows, uniform convergence for finite classes, the fundamental theorem for classes of finite VC dimension, structural risk minimization, replaces the count ∣H∣|H|∣H∣ by a finer measure of the class's complexity but keeps the argument. None of this is machine-checked. The mission fixes on the platform the objects that the rest of the series uses without change: risks, empirical risks, the product law of a sample, the ERM relation, and the four learnability notions of Definitions 3.1, 3.4, 4.1 and 4.3.

Difficulty

The milestone needs that, for a fixed measurable hypothesis whose true error exceeds ϵ\epsilonϵ, the product law gives the event "zero empirical risk" probability at most (1−ϵ)m(1-\epsilon)^m(1−ϵ)m; this is the product structure of Measure.pi on the event that each labeled example lies in the measurable set where the hypothesis agrees with fff, followed by 1−ϵ≤e−ϵ1 - \epsilon \le e^{-\epsilon}1−ϵ≤e−ϵ, the union bound over the finite class and the observation that under realizability every ERM hypothesis has zero empirical risk, so a bad ERM hypothesis is a consistent bad hypothesis. The goal packages this as a learner: existence of an ERM hypothesis for every sample (a finite nonempty class has a minimizer), and the arithmetic of the ceiling.

Formalization scope

The framework is the book's, with the risk as a Bochner integral, the sample law as a product measure, ERM as a relation and learners as deterministic functions of the sample; failure probabilities are stated as upper bounds on the outer measure of the failure set, the strong form of "with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ"; the comparison with min⁡h′∈HLD(h′)\min_{h' \in H} L_D(h')minh′∈H​LD​(h′) is written without an infimum. Sample-complexity functions are carried explicitly: the book's mHm_HmH​ as the minimal such function is not defined, and "mH≤fm_H \le fmH​≤f" is stated as "the learner satisfies the guarantee with the function fff". Hypotheses and labeling functions are assumed measurable (Remark 3.1). The union bound (Lemma 2.2) is Mathlib's measure_union_le and is not an item. Hypotheses: ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0, δ∈(0,1)\delta \in (0,1)δ∈(0,1), HHH finite (and nonempty for the learner to exist).

Trivializing readings are excluded: the milestone's failure event ranges over every ERM hypothesis, and the goal quantifies over all distributions, all realizable labelings and all ϵ,δ\epsilon, \deltaϵ,δ. Welcome contributions: the product-law bound for a fixed hypothesis and the union bound over a finset, which every later mission of the series reuses.

Selected references

  • S. Shalev-Shwartz, S. Ben-David, Understanding Machine Learning: From Theory to Algorithms, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapters 2–4. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107298019
  • L. G. Valiant, A theory of the learnable, Communications of the ACM 27(11), 1984. doi:10.1145/1968.1972
  • V. N. Vapnik, The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory, Springer, 1995. doi:10.1007/978-1-4757-2440-0
  • D. Haussler, Decision theoretic generalizations of the PAC model for neural net and other learning applications, Information and Computation 100(1), 1992. doi:10.1016/0890-5401(92)90010-D
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An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory II: Occam's Razor, Set Cover and Decision ListsTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 2 of Kearns and Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory (MIT Press, 1994, doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001), gives a formal justification of Occam's Razor inside the PAC model. An Occam algorithm is judged not by the predictive power of its hypothesis but by how succinctly the hypothesis explains the sample before it: it must be consistent with the data and short, in the sense that its representation has fewer bits than the data it reproduces. The chapter's theorems say that, when the examples are drawn independently from a fixed distribution, such compression automatically yields prediction: a consistent hypothesis drawn from a small class is, with high probability, accurate on unseen examples. This turns the design of PAC learning algorithms into a combinatorial task, finding a short consistent hypothesis, and the chapter demonstrates the method three times: it shaves a logarithmic factor off the conjunction bound of Chapter 1, it learns conjunctions with few relevant variables through the greedy set-cover heuristic, and it learns Rivest's decision lists, a class strictly more expressive than kkk-CNF and kkk-DNF, by a greedy algorithm whose correctness is a one-line consequence of consistency.

Setting

The framework is that of Mission I: a measurable instance space, concepts as boolean functions, a target distribution DDD, the product law of a sample of mmm labeled examples, the error error(h)=Pr⁡x∼D[h(x)≠c(x)]\mathrm{error}(h) = \Pr_{x \sim D}[h(x) \neq c(x)]error(h)=Prx∼D​[h(x)=c(x)], and consistency of a hypothesis with a sample. Hypotheses may be represented by binary strings through a representation map, with size the bit length; an (α,β)(\alpha, \beta)(α,β)-Occam algorithm outputs a consistent hypothesis of size at most (n⋅size(c))αmβ(n \cdot \mathrm{size}(c))^\alpha m^\beta(n⋅size(c))αmβ with 0≤β<10 \le \beta < 10≤β<1. The set cover problem asks for a minimum subcollection of a collection S\mathcal{S}S of subsets of a finite universe UUU that covers UUU; the greedy heuristic repeatedly picks the set covering the most uncovered elements. A kkk-decision list is a sequence of conditions, each a conjunction of at most kkk literals, with a bit attached to each and a default bit; it evaluates to the bit of the first satisfied condition. The greedy decision-list algorithm repeatedly finds a useful condition, one satisfied by some remaining examples all of which carry the same label, appends it with that label and removes those examples.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.2 (Occam's Razor, cardinality version)

For a finite hypothesis class HHH, a target ccc, a distribution DDD and 0<ϵ≤10 < \epsilon \le 10<ϵ≤1, the probability that a sample of mmm examples is consistent with some h∈Hh \in Hh∈H of error greater than ϵ\epsilonϵ is at most ∣H∣(1−ϵ)m|H|(1 - \epsilon)^m∣H∣(1−ϵ)m; hence

m≥1ϵ(ln⁡∣H∣+ln⁡1δ)m \ge \frac{1}{\epsilon}\Big(\ln|H| + \ln\frac{1}{\delta}\Big)m≥ϵ1​(ln∣H∣+lnδ1​)

makes this probability at most δ\deltaδ, and any algorithm that outputs a consistent hypothesis from HHH has error greater than ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at most ∣H∣(1−ϵ)m|H|(1-\epsilon)^m∣H∣(1−ϵ)m.

Milestones

Theorem 2.1 (an (α,β)(\alpha, \beta)(α,β)-Occam algorithm is a PAC algorithm, with explicit sample-size conditions in place of the constant aaa); the greedy set-cover bound of §2.3 (∣Ui∣≤(1−1/opt)i∣U∣|U_i| \le (1 - 1/\mathrm{opt})^i|U|∣Ui​∣≤(1−1/opt)i∣U∣ and optln⁡∣U∣\mathrm{opt}\ln|U|optln∣U∣ sets cover); the improved conjunction bound of §2.2; Theorem 2.3 (kkk-decision lists are PAC learnable by the greedy algorithm, which never fails and whose outputs are consistent).

Significance

Theorem 2.2 is the single most used tool of the subject: every finite-class sample bound, including the ones for conjunctions, decision lists, kkk-CNF and the discretized geometric classes, is an instance of it, and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis theory of Chapter 3 is its extension to infinite classes with the growth function in place of ∣H∣|H|∣H∣. Theorem 2.1 is the philosophical statement, that succinct explanation implies prediction, and its converse (Exercise 2.3, and more strongly the boosting theorem of Chapter 4) makes Occam learning equivalent to PAC learning. The greedy set-cover bound is Chvátal's classical approximation guarantee, used in the book for learning with few relevant variables and again in later chapters. Theorem 2.3 is Rivest's result, and its proof exhibits the pattern "consistency by construction plus a counting bound" in its purest form. None of these is machine-checked. Their formalization gives the platform the union-bound-over-a-finite-class argument once and for all, in a form that the later missions of this series reuse verbatim.

Difficulty

Theorem 2.2 requires that, for a fixed measurable hypothesis with error greater than ϵ\epsilonϵ, the product law gives the event "consistent with all mmm examples" probability at most (1−ϵ)m(1 - \epsilon)^m(1−ϵ)m, which is the product structure of Measure.pi applied to the event that each coordinate lies in the set where hhh agrees with ccc; the union bound over HHH and the elementary inequality (1−ϵ)m≤e−ϵm(1 - \epsilon)^m \le e^{-\epsilon m}(1−ϵ)m≤e−ϵm finish. Theorem 2.1 adds only the count of binary strings of length at most KKK and arithmetic with real exponents. The set-cover bound is a discrete induction: an optimal cover of UUU restricted to the uncovered elements has at most opt\mathrm{opt}opt sets, so one of them, hence the greedy choice, covers a 1/opt1/\mathrm{opt}1/opt fraction; the covering clause needs the strict inequality 1−1/opt<e−1/opt1 - 1/\mathrm{opt} < e^{-1/\mathrm{opt}}1−1/opt<e−1/opt. Theorem 2.3 needs that a run of the greedy algorithm never repeats a condition (its satisfied examples are removed), so outputs lie in an explicit finite class, that the first condition of the target list satisfied by a remaining example is useful, and that a complete run is consistent; the bound is then Theorem 2.2.

Formalization scope

Everything is in the sample-complexity sense on the Mission I framework; running time is not modelled and "efficient" is dropped from every statement, which is recorded in the natural-language statements. Theorem 2.2's constant bbb is 111 with natural logarithms; Theorem 2.1's constant aaa is replaced by three explicit sufficient conditions. Hypotheses in the finite class are required to be measurable. The greedy heuristic and the greedy decision-list algorithm are relations (any tie-breaking), and the theorems quantify over every run; the decision-list theorem is stated for every kkk with the kkk-conjunctions as conditions, so that its hypothesis is a kkk-decision list rather than the expansion the book sketches for k>1k > 1k>1. The conjunction count is 3n+13^n + 13n+1, including the empty concept that the elimination algorithm outputs on a sample without positive examples. The few-relevant-variables algorithm of §2.3 is not stated (its bound has an unspecified constant and mmm on both sides). Hypotheses: 0<ϵ≤10 < \epsilon \le 10<ϵ≤1, 0<δ0 < \delta0<δ (and δ<1\delta < 1δ<1 where ln⁡(1/δ)\ln(1/\delta)ln(1/δ) must be nonnegative).

Trivializing readings are excluded: the bad-consistent event is over all of HHH, the decision-list failure event ranges over every possible output, and the set-cover bound holds for every greedy run. Welcome contributions: the product-law bound for a fixed hypothesis, the union bound over a finset, the string-counting lemma, and the no-repetition lemma for greedy runs.

Selected references

  • M. J. Kearns, U. V. Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory, MIT Press, 1994, Chapter 2. doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001
  • A. Blumer, A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, M. K. Warmuth, Occam's razor, Information Processing Letters 24(6), 1987. doi:10.1016/0020-0190(87)90114-1
  • V. Chvátal, A greedy heuristic for the set-covering problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 4(3), 1979. doi:10.1287/moor.4.3.233
  • R. L. Rivest, Learning decision lists, Machine Learning 2(3), 1987. doi:10.1007/BF00058680
  • D. Haussler, Quantifying inductive bias: AI learning algorithms and Valiant's learning framework, Artificial Intelligence 36(2), 1988. doi:10.1016/0004-3702(88)90002-1
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An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory I: The PAC Model, Conjunctions, Rectangles and 3-CNFTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 1 of Kearns and Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory (MIT Press, 1994, doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001), introduces Valiant's Probably Approximately Correct model, the framework for the whole book. A learner sees labeled examples of an unknown target concept drawn from an unknown but fixed distribution, and must output a hypothesis that, with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ over the sample, misclassifies a fresh example with probability at most ϵ\epsilonϵ; the model is distribution-free, and the hypothesis is judged on the same distribution it was trained on. The chapter's three positive results are the templates for everything that follows. The rectangle game (Theorem 1.1) shows that an infinite class can be learned from a finite sample by exploiting the geometry of the error region. Conjunctions (Theorem 1.2) are learned by the elimination algorithm, whose analysis, a union bound over "bad" literals, is the prototype of every sample-size bound in the book. And 3-CNF formulae (Theorem 1.4) are learned by a change of variables that reduces them to conjunctions, which, set against the intractability of learning 3-term DNF as 3-term DNF (Theorem 1.3), is the reason the final definition of the model lets the hypothesis class differ from the concept class.

Setting

The instance space is a measurable space XXX, a concept is a function c:X→{0,1}c : X \to \{0, 1\}c:X→{0,1}, and the target distribution DDD is a probability measure on XXX. The error of a hypothesis hhh is error(h)=Pr⁡x∼D[h(x)≠c(x)]\mathrm{error}(h) = \Pr_{x \sim D}[h(x) \ne c(x)]error(h)=Prx∼D​[h(x)=c(x)]. A sample of mmm examples is S=((x1,c(x1)),…,(xm,c(xm)))S = ((x_1, c(x_1)), \dots, (x_m, c(x_m)))S=((x1​,c(x1​)),…,(xm​,c(xm​))) with the xix_ixi​ independent draws from DDD; a learning algorithm is a function from samples to hypotheses; it has the (ϵ,δ)(\epsilon, \delta)(ϵ,δ) guarantee on a class CCC if for every c∈Cc \in Cc∈C and every DDD the probability that its hypothesis has error greater than ϵ\epsilonϵ is at most δ\deltaδ; CCC is PAC learnable using HHH if for all ϵ,δ∈(0,1/2)\epsilon, \delta \in (0, 1/2)ϵ,δ∈(0,1/2) some sample size and algorithm with hypotheses in HHH achieve the guarantee. For X={0,1}nX = \{0,1\}^nX={0,1}n a literal is a variable or its negation and a conjunction is a finite set of literals; the elimination algorithm starts from all 2n2n2n literals and deletes every literal contradicted by a positive example. For X=R2X = \mathbb{R}^2X=R2 the concepts are the closed axis-aligned rectangles and the tightest-fit algorithm returns the smallest rectangle containing the positive examples. A 3-CNF formula is a conjunction of clauses of at most three literals; the expansion a↦a′a \mapsto a'a↦a′ records for each triple (u,v,w)(u, v, w)(u,v,w) of literals the value u∨v∨wu \vee v \vee wu∨v∨w.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.2

Conjunctions of boolean literals are PAC learnable by the elimination algorithm: for every target conjunction, every distribution on {0,1}n\{0,1\}^n{0,1}n and ϵ,δ>0\epsilon, \delta > 0ϵ,δ>0, the elimination hypothesis is consistent with every sample labeled by the target, and with

m≥2nϵ(ln⁡2n+ln⁡1δ)m \ge \frac{2n}{\epsilon}\Big(\ln 2n + \ln\frac{1}{\delta}\Big)m≥ϵ2n​(ln2n+lnδ1​)

examples its error exceeds ϵ\epsilonϵ with probability at most δ\deltaδ; hence conjunctions are PAC learnable using conjunctions.

Milestones

Theorem 1.1 (rectangles by the tightest fit, m≥(4/ϵ)ln⁡(4/δ)m \ge (4/\epsilon)\ln(4/\delta)m≥(4/ϵ)ln(4/δ)) and Theorem 1.4 (3-CNF formulae by elimination over the (2n)3(2n)^3(2n)3 expanded variables, the hypothesis being itself a 3-CNF formula).

Significance

Theorem 1.2 is Valiant's original result and the first instance of the two ideas that organize the subject: a hypothesis that is more specific than the target never errs on negative examples, and the error of the hypothesis decomposes as a sum over a polynomial number of "bad" events, each of which is avoided with probability exponentially close to one. Theorem 1.1 is the first learning result for an infinite concept class and the seed of the Vapnik–Chervonenkis theory of Chapter 3. Theorem 1.4 is the first reduction between learning problems and, together with Theorem 1.3, the demonstration that the choice of hypothesis representation can separate tractable from intractable. None of these theorems is machine-checked. Formalizing them fixes, for the rest of the series, the framework in which the error of a hypothesis, the law of a sample and the learnability of a class are stated, so that the Occam, VC-dimension, boosting and noise results of later chapters can be stated on the same objects.

Difficulty

The elimination analysis needs that the hypothesis contains every literal of the target, that its error is at most the sum over its literals zzz of p(z)=Pr⁡[c(a)=1∧z=0 in a]p(z) = \Pr[c(a) = 1 \wedge z = 0 \text{ in } a]p(z)=Pr[c(a)=1∧z=0 in a], and that a literal with p(z)≥ϵ/2np(z) \ge \epsilon/2np(z)≥ϵ/2n survives mmm independent examples with probability at most (1−ϵ/2n)m(1 - \epsilon/2n)^m(1−ϵ/2n)m; the probabilistic content is the independence of the coordinates of the sample law, which is a product measure, and the inequality 1−x≤e−x1 - x \le e^{-x}1−x≤e−x. The rectangle analysis is the four-strip argument, which for an arbitrary distribution, possibly with atoms, requires choosing the strip {y≥t∗}\{y \ge t^*\}{y≥t∗} with t∗t^*t∗ the supremum of the heights at which the strip has weight at least ϵ/4\epsilon/4ϵ/4 and using the left-continuity of the weight in the height. The 3-CNF result transports the conjunction bound along the injective expansion: the pushforward of the sample law is the sample law of the expanded distribution, and the error of the composed hypothesis equals the error over the expanded variables. The deduction of PACLearnable from the explicit bounds is a choice of sample size.

Formalization scope

The model is stated in the sample-complexity sense: algorithms are functions of the sample, and the guarantee bounds the outer measure of the failure set under the product law of the sample, which is the strong form of "with probability at least 1−δ1 - \delta1−δ" and requires no measurability of the failure set. Running time, and hence "efficiently", is not modelled, and the hardness Theorem 1.3 is not stated; each theorem carries instead the explicit algorithm and the explicit sample bound of the book's analysis. Concepts on general instance spaces are required to be measurable in the guarantee. The cube is {0,1}n\{0,1\}^n{0,1}n as functions Fin n → Bool; the expanded variables are indexed by the triples of literals, so N=(2n)3N = (2n)^3N=(2n)3 is a Fintype.card. Rectangles are closed, possibly empty; the tightest fit of a sample without positive examples is the empty concept. Hypotheses: ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0, 0<δ<10 < \delta < 10<δ<1; the sample bounds are as printed, with natural logarithms.

Trivializing readings are excluded: the failure bound is uniform over all distributions and all targets in the class, consistency is asserted for every sample labeled by the target, and the learnability clause quantifies over all ϵ,δ\epsilon, \deltaϵ,δ. Welcome contributions: the product-law bound Pr⁡[a fixed event of probability≥p is missed by all m examples]≤(1−p)m\Pr[\text{a fixed event of probability} \ge p \text{ is missed by all } m \text{ examples}] \le (1 - p)^mPr[a fixed event of probability≥p is missed by all m examples]≤(1−p)m, the union bound over literals, and the pushforward identity for the expanded sample.

Selected references

  • M. J. Kearns, U. V. Vazirani, An Introduction to Computational Learning Theory, MIT Press, 1994, Chapter 1. doi:10.7551/mitpress/3897.001.0001
  • L. G. Valiant, A theory of the learnable, Communications of the ACM 27(11), 1984. doi:10.1145/1968.1972
  • A. Blumer, A. Ehrenfeucht, D. Haussler, M. K. Warmuth, Learnability and the Vapnik–Chervonenkis dimension, Journal of the ACM 36(4), 1989. doi:10.1145/76359.76371
  • L. Pitt, L. G. Valiant, Computational limitations on learning from examples, Journal of the ACM 35(4), 1988. doi:10.1145/48014.63140
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Foundations of Machine Learning XIII: The Johnson-Lindenstrauss LemmaTextbook

Motivation

High-dimensional data is often computationally expensive to work with and hard to visualize. The Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma answers a striking question in this setting: can any finite set of points, no matter how high-dimensional the ambient space, be squeezed into a space of dimension depending only on the number of points (logarithmically) and the desired accuracy, while barely disturbing the distances between them? The answer is yes, and — remarkably — a single, data-independent random construction (a random Gaussian matrix) achieves it with positive probability for any point set. This mission formalizes the lemma and the two probabilistic results its proof is built from.

Setting

For a set VVV of mmm points in RN\mathbb R^NRN, a map f:RN→Rkf:\mathbb R^N\to\mathbb R^kf:RN→Rk is a (1±ϵ)(1\pm\epsilon)(1±ϵ)-distance-preserving embedding of VVV if (1−ϵ)∥u−v∥2≤∥f(u)−f(v)∥2≤(1+ϵ)∥u−v∥2(1-\epsilon)\|u-v\|^2\le\|f(u)-f(v)\|^2\le(1+\epsilon)\|u-v\|^2(1−ϵ)∥u−v∥2≤∥f(u)−f(v)∥2≤(1+ϵ)∥u−v∥2 for every u,v∈Vu,v\in Vu,v∈V. The book's proof constructs f=A/kf=A/\sqrt kf=A/k​ from a random matrix A∈Rk×NA\in\mathbb R^{k\times N}A∈Rk×N with i.i.d. standard normal (N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1)) entries, and argues by the probabilistic method: for a fixed pair of points, Lemma 15.3 shows fff preserves their squared distance up to (1±ϵ)(1\pm\epsilon)(1±ϵ) with probability at least 1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/41-2e^{-(\epsilon^2-\epsilon^3)k/4}1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4, because the ratio ∥f(x)∥2/∥x∥2\|f(x)\|^2/\|x\|^2∥f(x)∥2/∥x∥2 (for xxx the difference of the two points) is exactly a χk2\chi^2_kχk2​ random variable, whose two-sided concentration around its mean kkk is Lemma 15.2. A union bound over the O(m2)O(m^2)O(m2) pairs in VVV then shows the probability that every pair is simultaneously preserved is still strictly positive — so a map with the desired property must exist, even though no single fixed matrix is exhibited.

Formalization targets

Lemma 15.2 (Chi-squared concentration, milestone). If Q∼χk2Q\sim\chi^2_kQ∼χk2​, then for 0<ϵ<1/20<\epsilon<1/20<ϵ<1/2, P[(1−ϵ)k≤Q≤(1+ϵ)k]≥1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4P[(1-\epsilon)k\le Q\le(1+\epsilon)k]\ge1-2e^{-(\epsilon^2-\epsilon^3)k/4}P[(1−ϵ)k≤Q≤(1+ϵ)k]≥1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4.

Lemma 15.3 (Gaussian random projection distortion, milestone). For x∈RNx\in\mathbb R^Nx∈RN, k<Nk<Nk<N, and A∈Rk×NA\in\mathbb R^{k\times N}A∈Rk×N with i.i.d. N(0,1)N(0,1)N(0,1) entries,

P[(1−ϵ)∥x∥2≤∥1kAx∥2≤(1+ϵ)∥x∥2]≥1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4.P\Big[(1-\epsilon)\|x\|^2\le\big\|\tfrac1{\sqrt k}Ax\big\|^2\le(1+\epsilon)\|x\|^2\Big] \ge1-2e^{-(\epsilon^2-\epsilon^3)k/4}.P[(1−ϵ)∥x∥2≤​k​1​Ax​2≤(1+ϵ)∥x∥2]≥1−2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4.

Lemma 15.4 — the mission's goal (Johnson-Lindenstrauss). For 0<ϵ<1/20<\epsilon<1/20<ϵ<1/2, integer m>4m>4m>4, and k=20log⁡(m)/ϵ2k=20\log(m)/\epsilon^2k=20log(m)/ϵ2, any set VVV of mmm points in RN\mathbb R^NRN admits a map f:RN→Rkf:\mathbb R^N\to\mathbb R^kf:RN→Rk with (1−ϵ)∥u−v∥2≤∥f(u)−f(v)∥2≤(1+ϵ)∥u−v∥2(1-\epsilon)\|u-v\|^2\le\|f(u)-f(v)\|^2\le(1+\epsilon) \|u-v\|^2(1−ϵ)∥u−v∥2≤∥f(u)−f(v)∥2≤(1+ϵ)∥u−v∥2 for all u,v∈Vu,v\in Vu,v∈V.

Significance

This is one of the cleanest instances in the book of the probabilistic method: existence is proved without exhibiting the object, by showing a random construction succeeds with positive probability. The target dimension k=O(log⁡m/ϵ2)k=O(\log m/\epsilon^2)k=O(logm/ϵ2) is independent of the ambient dimension NNN — the embedding works no matter how large the original feature space is, which is exactly why the lemma has inspired random-projection methods throughout dimensionality reduction, streaming algorithms, and compressed sensing. Prior art on the Prove2Me platform is not faithful here: HighDimProb.Isoperimetry.johnson_lindenstrauss (Vershynin series) proves a Johnson-Lindenstrauss-type bound, but via a uniformly-random mmm-dimensional subspace and its orthogonal projection, rescaled by n/m\sqrt{n/m}n/m​ — a genuinely different construction from this book's explicit i.i.d.-Gaussian-matrix map f=A/kf=A/\sqrt kf=A/k​, and with different (existentially quantified, unspecified) constants rather than this book's explicit k=20log⁡(m)/ϵ2k=20\log(m)/\epsilon^2k=20log(m)/ϵ2. The two are classically known to give essentially the same qualitative guarantee, but showing them equivalent would require an independent equivalence proof neither platform item nor this mission undertakes; per the chunk's own brief, the Vershynin theorem is cited here only as related work, not reused as a kind: reference item.

Not formalized here: Theorem 15.1 (the PCA solution), the chapter's other headline result. BRIEF.md explicitly flags PCA and JL as the chapter's two independent capstones, not a proof chain, and recommends dropping PCA if the mission focuses purely on JL. Theorem 15.1's proof is an Eckart-Young-type Frobenius-norm optimization argument over the set of rank-kkk orthogonal projection matrices — sharing no definitions, hypotheses, or proof technique with the probabilistic-method argument this mission's three items are built from. Formalizing it would mean standing up a second, unrelated piece of mathematics (constrained matrix optimization, singular value decomposition) from scratch for a single additional item; per the captain brief's guidance to leave out, rather than approximate, material disproportionate to the time budget, it is omitted. §15.2 (kernel PCA) and §15.3 (Isomap, LLE, Laplacian eigenmaps) are likewise out of scope, per BRIEF.md's own page-range restriction — applications- heavy manifold-learning material with no numbered result feeding Lemma 15.4's proof.

Difficulty

Lemma 15.2's proof is a genuine Chernoff-bound argument: apply Markov's inequality to exp⁡(λQ)\exp(\lambda Q)exp(λQ), substitute the chi-squared distribution's own moment-generating function (1−2λ)−k/2(1-2\lambda)^{-k/2}(1−2λ)−k/2, and optimize the resulting bound over λ∈(0,1/2)\lambda\in(0,1/2)λ∈(0,1/2) by calculus (the book's own choice λ=ϵ/(2(1+ϵ))\lambda=\epsilon/(2(1+\epsilon))λ=ϵ/(2(1+ϵ)) is exactly the minimizer) — not a one-line union of tail bounds, and the same argument must be repeated (with a sign flip) for the lower tail before combining via a union bound. Lemma 15.3's proof needs the non-obvious observation that Tj=x^j/∥x∥T_j=\widehat x_j/\|x\|Tj​=xj​/∥x∥ (for x^=Ax\widehat x=Axx=Ax) are themselves i.i.d. standard normal — a consequence of AAA's i.i.d. Gaussian entries and E[x^j2]=∥x∥2\mathbb E[\widehat x_j^2]=\|x\|^2E[xj2​]=∥x∥2, not immediate from the definitions alone — before the sum of their squares can be recognized as exactly a χk2\chi^2_kχk2​ variable and Lemma 15.2 applied. Lemma 15.4's own proof, while conceptually simple (a single union bound), needs the specific numerical accounting 2m2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4=2m5ϵ−3<2m−1/22m^2e^{-(\epsilon^2-\epsilon^3)k/4}=2m^{5\epsilon-3}<2m^{-1/2}2m2e−(ϵ2−ϵ3)k/4=2m5ϵ−3<2m−1/2 at the chosen k=20log⁡(m)/ϵ2k=20\log(m)/\epsilon^2k=20log(m)/ϵ2 and ϵ≤1/2\epsilon\le1/2ϵ≤1/2 to conclude the success probability is strictly positive — a formalization that merely asserted "the union bound gives a positive probability" without this exact accounting would not establish the book's specific, tight constant k=20log⁡(m)/ϵ2k=20\log(m)/\epsilon^2k=20log(m)/ϵ2.

Formalization scope

SqNorm is the coordinate-wise squared Euclidean norm (∑ᵢ vᵢ²), used in place of Mathlib's EuclideanSpace/PiLp norm typeclass machinery to keep the statements close to the book's own concrete ℝ^N/ℝ^k-coordinate notation. IsChiSquaredMGF states the moment-generating-function characterization of a chi-squared distribution that the proof of Lemma 15.2 itself cites (Eq. C.25), rather than restating the book's own Definition C.7, which sits in an out-of-chapter appendix not read for this mission; this is checked (in SELF_REVIEW.md) to be a faithful, uniquely-determining substitute, since a real random variable's law is determined by its MGF wherever it is finite near 0. IsIIDStandardGaussianMatrix states "i.i.d. standard normal entries" via Mathlib's gaussianReal 0 1 (marginal law) together with iIndepFun (joint independence). The goal theorem's target dimension k is taken as ⌈20 log(m)/ε²⌉ (Nat.ceil) rather than the book's real-valued 20 log(m)/ε², since a map's codomain dimension must be a natural number; this rounding only strengthens (never weakens) the existential conclusion, since the union-bound success probability is monotonically increasing in k. No numerical constant in any of the three items is otherwise altered from the book's own displayed form. A trivializing formalization this mission avoids: stating Lemma 15.4 with an unspecified k = O(log m/ε²) (an asymptotic, not an explicit constant) — per BRIEF.md's own naming of this as one of the series' "explicit-constant" results, k's exact formula 20 log(m)/ε² (up to the ceiling needed for well-typedness) is stated directly.

Selected references

  • M. Mohri, A. Rostamizadeh, A. Talwalkar, Foundations of Machine Learning, 2nd ed., MIT Press, 2018, Chapter 15, §15.4.
  • W. B. Johnson, J. Lindenstrauss, "Extensions of Lipschitz mappings into a Hilbert space," Contemporary Mathematics 26, 1984, 189-206.
  • S. Vempala, The Random Projection Method, DIMACS Series in Discrete Mathematics and Theoretical Computer Science, 2004.
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Machine LearningProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Support Vector Machines VII: Consistency of Support Vector Machines for RegressionTextbook

Motivation

Chapter 9 asks whether the support vector machine — a regularized empirical risk minimizer fD,λf_{D,\lambda}fD,λ​ over an RKHS HHH — is a statistically consistent estimator for regression: does RL,P(fD,λn)→RL,P∗R_{L,P}(f_{D,\lambda_n}) \to R^*_{L,P}RL,P​(fD,λn​​)→RL,P∗​ as the sample size n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞, for a suitable regularization schedule λn→0\lambda_n \to 0λn​→0? The chapter's main theorem (Theorem 9.1) answers yes, under an explicit polynomial rate condition on λn\lambda_nλn​. Its proof reduces the question to bounding how far the empirical regularized solution can be from the population regularized solution, and that reduction bottoms out in a single concentration-of-measure fact: how tightly does an empirical mean of i.i.d. Hilbert-space-valued random variables concentrate around its true mean, given only a bound on one qqq-th moment (no exponential-moment assumption at all)? That fact is Lemma 9.2, "the following lemma to bound the probability of ∣RL,P(fD,λ)−RL,P(fP,λ)∣≤ε|R_{L,P}(f_{D,\lambda}) - R_{L,P}(f_{P,\lambda})| \le \varepsilon∣RL,P​(fD,λ​)−RL,P​(fP,λ​)∣≤ε for ∣D∣→∞|D| \to \infty∣D∣→∞" — the technical core the whole chapter's consistency argument rests on, and this mission's goal.

Setting

Fix a measurable space ZZZ, a distribution PPP on ZZZ, a separable Hilbert space HHH, and a measurable g:Z→Hg : Z \to Hg:Z→H. Its qqq-th moment norm, for q∈(1,∞)q \in (1,\infty)q∈(1,∞), is ∥g∥q:=(EP∥g∥Hq)1/q\|g\|_q := (\mathbb E_P\|g\|_H^q)^{1/q}∥g∥q​:=(EP​∥g∥Hq​)1/q — the direct Hilbert-space analogue of an ordinary LqL^qLq norm. The proof machinery behind concentration results of this kind is symmetrization: replacing a centered i.i.d. sum 1n∑i(ξi−EPξi)\frac1n\sum_i(\xi_i - \mathbb E_P\xi_i)n1​∑i​(ξi​−EP​ξi​) by a Rademacher-randomized sum 1n∑iεiξi\frac1n\sum_i \varepsilon_i \xi_in1​∑i​εi​ξi​, where a Rademacher sequence ε1,…,εn\varepsilon_1,\dots,\varepsilon_nε1​,…,εn​ is a family of independent ±1\pm1±1-valued random variables, each taking each sign with probability 1/21/21/2. Once randomized, the sum's LpL^pLp-norms (for different ppp) become comparable to each other via Kahane's inequality, with a universal constant depending only on the two exponents involved — never on the sample size or the ambient Banach space.

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 9.2 (concentration of Hilbert-space-valued sample means)

Pn ⁣({(z1,…,zn)∈Zn:∥1n∑i=1ng(zi)−EPg∥H≥ε})≤cq(∥g∥qε nq∗)q,q∗:=min⁡{1/2, 1−1/q}P^n\!\left(\left\{(z_1,\dots,z_n) \in Z^n : \left\|\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n g(z_i) - \mathbb E_P g\right\|_H \ge \varepsilon\right\}\right) \le c_q\left(\frac{\|g\|_q}{\varepsilon\, n^{q^*}}\right)^{q}, \qquad q^* := \min\{1/2,\,1-1/q\}Pn({(z1​,…,zn​)∈Zn:​n1​i=1∑n​g(zi​)−EP​g​H​≥ε})≤cq​(εnq∗∥g∥q​​)q,q∗:=min{1/2,1−1/q}

for a universal constant cq>0c_q>0cq​>0 depending only on qqq, every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and every n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. This is a genuine generalization of Chebyshev's inequality to Hilbert-space-valued means, sharp enough (via the explicit rate n−q∗n^{-q^*}n−q∗) to drive Theorem 9.1's own polynomial regularization condition λnp∗n→∞\lambda_n^{p^*} n \to \inftyλnp∗​n→∞.

Milestones (attack order)

  1. Theorem A.8.1 (Symmetrization) — EPΨ(∥1n∑i(ξi−EPξi)∥)≤EPEνΨ(2∥1n∑iεiξi∥)\mathbb E_P\Psi(\|\frac1n\sum_i(\xi_i-\mathbb E_P\xi_i)\|) \le \mathbb E_P\mathbb E_\nu\Psi(2\|\frac1n\sum_i\varepsilon_i\xi_i\|)EP​Ψ(∥n1​∑i​(ξi​−EP​ξi​)∥)≤EP​Eν​Ψ(2∥n1​∑i​εi​ξi​∥) for convex non-decreasing Ψ\PsiΨ, i.i.d. PPP-integrable ξi\xi_iξi​ valued in a separable Banach space, and a Rademacher sequence εi\varepsilon_iεi​. Directly cited in Lemma 9.2's proof ("Using the symmetrization argument given in Theorem A.8.1...").
  2. Theorem A.8.3 (Kahane's inequality) — for a Rademacher sequence, every two Lp(ν)L^p(\nu)Lp(ν) and Lq(ν)L^q(\nu)Lq(ν) norms of ∥∑iεixi∥\|\sum_i\varepsilon_ix_i\|∥∑i​εi​xi​∥ are comparable via a universal constant Kp,qK_{p,q}Kp,q​, independent of nnn and the Banach space EEE. Directly cited in Lemma 9.2's proof ("If q∈(1,2]q\in(1,2]q∈(1,2], we obtain with Kahane's inequality, see Theorem A.8.3, that...").

Theorem 9.1 itself (BRIEF.md's recommended goal — the full SVM-regression consistency theorem) was not attempted this session; see STATUS.md for the reason and the fallback taken instead.

Significance

Lemma 9.2 is stated and proved once, in the Appendix's general Rademacher-sequence toolkit and this chapter, and then used directly to obtain Theorem 9.1's consistency guarantee: substituting g:=g := g:= the pointwise SVM "difference process" into Lemma 9.2 converts a purely probabilistic concentration fact into a statement about how close the empirical SVM solution's risk is to the population solution's risk, for every sample size. Because the bound depends on nothing but a single moment ∥g∥q\|g\|_q∥g∥q​ — no boundedness, no sub-Gaussian tail — it is what lets Theorem 9.1 avoid assuming the loss or the label distribution has any exponential tail control, which is essential for regression (where Y⊂RY \subset \mathbb RY⊂R need not be bounded, unlike the classification setting of this series' earlier chapters). Symmetrization and Kahane's inequality are themselves standard, reusable tools of empirical process theory (used throughout Chapter 7's entropy-number program, excluded from this series, and Chapter 6's classification oracle inequality).

Difficulty

The published proof of Lemma 9.2 is a short but dense computation: Markov's inequality reduces the tail bound to bounding EPn∥h∥Hq\mathbb E_{P^n}\|h\|_H^qEPn​∥h∥Hq​ for the centered mean hhh; Theorem A.8.1 symmetrizes; for q∈(1,2]q \in (1,2]q∈(1,2], Theorem A.8.3 (Kahane) converts the qqq-th moment of the Rademacher sum to its second moment, which an explicit orthogonality computation (the book's Eq. (9.4), Eνn∥∑iεixi∥2=∑i∥xi∥2\mathbb E_{\nu^n}\|\sum_i\varepsilon_ix_i\|^2 = \sum_i\|x_i\|^2Eνn​∥∑i​εi​xi​∥2=∑i​∥xi​∥2 for any fixed x1,…,xnx_1,\dots,x_nx1​,…,xn​, an immediate consequence of the Rademacher signs' independence and the Hilbert space's parallelogram identity) reduces to a sum of individual second moments; the case q>2q>2q>2 argues analogously with a different exponent split. None of this computation is captured by this mission's two milestones alone — they supply the two cited theorems, not the connecting algebra — so a complete proof of the goal from the milestones as stated still requires reconstructing this argument, exactly as the captain brief's milestones are meant to be (the book's own attack path, not a fully mechanized proof outline).

Formalization scope

ZZZ and Θ\ThetaΘ (the Rademacher sequence's own probability space) are arbitrary measurable spaces; HHH is [NormedAddCommGroup H] [InnerProductSpace ℝ H] [CompleteSpace H] [MeasurableSpace H] [BorelSpace H] [SeparableSpace H] (a separable real Hilbert space with its Borel σ\sigmaσ-algebra), matching "HHH be a separable Hilbert space" without narrowing to a concrete space (e.g. ℓ2\ell^2ℓ2) the book itself does not assume. IsRademacherSequence states independence via Mathlib's iIndepFun and the ±1\pm1±1-probability-1/21/21/2 condition directly, since no ready-made "Rademacher distribution" object exists in this Mathlib revision (checked by search). q∗:=min⁡{1/2,1−1/q}q^* := \min\{1/2, 1-1/q\}q∗:=min{1/2,1−1/q} is substituted algebraically rather than introducing a separate conjugate exponent q′q'q′, since 1/q+1/q′=11/q+1/q'=11/q+1/q′=1 pins q′q'q′ down uniquely — not a change of content. In Theorem A.8.3, "for all Banach spaces EEE" quantifies over E : Type (the Type 0 universe) rather than every universe Type*, a disclosed minor restriction with no effect on this mission's own use of the theorem (with EEE instantiated to a Type* Hilbert space HHH that is, in every actual application, itself at the Type level).

A trivializing formalization here would drop the "independent" half of IsRademacherSequence (leaving only the marginal ±1\pm1±1-probability-1/21/21/2 condition, true even for perfectly correlated signs) or drop the "i.i.d." qualifier on ξ1,…,ξn\xi_1,\dots,\xi_nξ1​,…,ξn​ in Theorem A.8.1 (both symmetrization and Kahane's inequality are false, or at least unproven by the book's own argument, without independence) — both are ruled out here by stating iIndepFun explicitly rather than only the marginal distribution conditions.

IsRademacherSequence is reusable beyond this mission: any future formalization of Chapter 7's entropy-number/Rademacher-complexity program, or of Chapter 6's oracle inequality's own use of Rademacher averages, would restate it locally (per Hard Rule 9) from the same book definition. Contributions completing the three sorrys are welcome; Theorem 9.1 itself remains a natural, substantially larger follow-up mission built on top of this one's two milestones together with the RKHS/regularized-risk-minimizer apparatus already available in this series' 04-representer mission (restated locally, per Hard Rule 9).

Selected references

  • I. Steinwart & A. Christmann, Support Vector Machines, Springer, Information Science and Statistics, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77242-4 (Chapter 9, §§9.1-9.2, pp. 333-337, and Appendix §A.8, pp. 535-537).
  • J.-P. Kahane, Some Random Series of Functions, 2nd ed., Cambridge University Press, 1985 (Kahane's inequality, Theorem A.8.3's original source).
  • A. W. van der Vaart & J. A. Wellner, Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes, Springer, 1996 (Lemma 2.3.1, the source of Theorem A.8.1's proof technique).
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Probability X: Exact Sparse RecoveryTextbook

Motivation

Compressed sensing asks a question that looks impossible at first: can a signal x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn be reconstructed exactly from far fewer than nnn linear measurements y=Ax∈Rmy=Ax\in\mathbb R^my=Ax∈Rm, m≪nm\ll nm≪n? Classical linear algebra says no — an underdetermined system has infinitely many solutions. But if xxx is known in advance to be sparse (most of its coordinates are zero), the extra structure makes recovery possible: solving the convex program that minimizes the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm of a candidate solution, subject to matching the measurements, recovers xxx exactly, for a measurement matrix AAA with a suitable geometric property. This idea, developed by Candès, Romberg, Tao and Donoho in the mid-2000s, underlies modern MRI acceleration, single-pixel cameras, and sparse signal processing generally.

The chapter isolates the exact geometric property a measurement matrix needs — the restricted isometry property (RIP) — and proves, purely by linear algebra with no probability involved, that RIP alone is sufficient for exact recovery by ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ minimization. (A companion result, outside this mission, shows random sub-gaussian matrices satisfy RIP with high probability once mmm is large enough, which is what makes the deterministic guarantee here practically useful; this mission formalizes the deterministic half.)

Setting

For a vector vvv indexed by a finite set, write ∥v∥0\|v\|_0∥v∥0​ for its number of non-zero coordinates (so vvv is sss-sparse if ∥v∥0≤s\|v\|_0\le s∥v∥0​≤s), ∥v∥1:=∑i∣vi∣\|v\|_1:=\sum_i|v_i|∥v∥1​:=∑i​∣vi​∣ for its ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm, and ∥v∥2:=∑ivi2\|v\|_2:=\sqrt{\sum_i v_i^2}∥v∥2​:=∑i​vi2​​ for its Euclidean norm.

An m×nm\times nm×n matrix AAA satisfies the restricted isometry property (RIP) with parameters α,β,s\alpha,\beta,sα,β,s if

α∥v∥2  ≤  ∥Av∥2  ≤  β∥v∥2for every s-sparse v∈Rn,\alpha\|v\|_2 \;\le\; \|Av\|_2 \;\le\; \beta\|v\|_2 \qquad\text{for every } s\text{-sparse } v\in\mathbb R^n,α∥v∥2​≤∥Av∥2​≤β∥v∥2​for every s-sparse v∈Rn,

i.e. AAA acts as an approximate isometry on every sss-sparse vector — equivalently (the book's own Exercise 10.5.9), the singular values of every m×sm\times sm×s column-submatrix of AAA lie in [α,β][\alpha,\beta][α,β].

Given a matrix AAA and measurements y=Axy=Axy=Ax for an unknown sparse xxx, the exact-recovery program is

minimize ∥x′∥1subject toy=Ax′.\text{minimize } \|x'\|_1 \quad\text{subject to}\quad y = Ax'.minimize ∥x′∥1​subject toy=Ax′.

Formalization targets

Goal (Theorem 10.5.10, RIP implies exact recovery)

∃ x^=xwheneverx^ solves the exact-recovery program for y=Ax,\exists\,\hat x = x \quad\text{whenever}\quad \hat x \text{ solves the exact-recovery program for } y=Ax,∃x^=xwheneverx^ solves the exact-recovery program for y=Ax,

precisely: suppose AAA satisfies RIP with parameters α,β,(1+λ)s\alpha,\beta,(1+\lambda)sα,β,(1+λ)s where λ>(β/α)2\lambda>(\beta/\alpha)^2λ>(β/α)2; then for every sss-sparse xxx, every x^\hat xx^ that is feasible (Ax^=AxA\hat x=AxAx^=Ax) and ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-optimal among feasible vectors satisfies x^=x\hat x=xx^=x. No constant here is hard-coded beyond the book's own explicit threshold λ>(β/α)2\lambda>(\beta/\alpha)^2λ>(β/α)2 — the weakest stable form of the claim.

Significance

RIP isolates exactly the geometric mechanism that makes ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-minimization work for sparse recovery: once a matrix is known to satisfy it, exact recovery is a deterministic, provable consequence with no appeal to randomness, no failure probability, and no measurement-count formula to verify beyond the RIP parameters themselves. This clean separation — a purely geometric sufficient condition (RIP), proved separately (in the book's Theorem 10.5.11, outside this mission) to hold with high probability for random sub-gaussian matrices — is the template compressed sensing theory follows throughout: geometric/deterministic guarantee first, probabilistic verification that random constructions meet it second. The theorem is one of the two standard routes (with the direct probabilistic argument of Theorem 10.5.1) to the chapter's central claim that m=O(slog⁡n)m=O(s\log n)m=O(slogn) measurements suffice to recover any sss-sparse signal in Rn\mathbb R^nRn — exponentially fewer than the nnn measurements a naive linear-algebraic argument would need.

The result itself, and the RIP framework, are classical and well-established (Candès-Tao 2005). This mission formalizes the deterministic linear-algebra core of the argument — the statement infrastructure (RIP, sparsity, the exact-recovery program stated as an explicit optimization problem) and the goal theorem — for a solver to close with a proof.

Difficulty

The natural first idea for showing x^=x\hat x=xx^=x is to try to bound the recovery error h:=x^−xh:=\hat x-xh:=x^−x directly using ∥Ah∥2\|Ah\|_2∥Ah∥2​ (which vanishes, since both xxx and x^\hat xx^ are feasible) together with RIP applied to hhh itself — but hhh need not be sparse at all: it is the difference of two sparse-ish vectors and can have full support. The actual argument decomposes hhh's support into blocks by descending magnitude (the support I0I_0I0​ of xxx, then the λs\lambda sλs largest remaining coordinates I1I_1I1​, then the next λs\lambda sλs, and so on), applies RIP only to the leading block I0,1=I0∪I1I_{0,1}=I_0\cup I_1I0,1​=I0​∪I1​ (which genuinely has bounded sparsity ≤(1+λ)s\le(1+\lambda)s≤(1+λ)s), and separately bounds the contribution of every later block using the fact that x^\hat xx^ is ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-optimal (so ∥hI0c∥1≤∥hI0∥1\|h_{I_0^c}\|_1\le\|h_{I_0}\|_1∥hI0c​​∥1​≤∥hI0​​∥1​, the "cone constraint"): each later block's ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm is controlled by the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ mass of the previous block divided by its size. This is a genuinely multi-step argument combining a purely geometric fact (RIP on one bounded-sparsity block) with a purely combinatorial one (the magnitude-sorted decomposition), and the "obvious" idea of applying RIP to hhh as a whole does not typecheck, since RIP says nothing about vectors with more than (1+λ)s(1+\lambda)s(1+λ)s non-zero entries.

Formalization scope

Vectors are plain functions ι → ℝ on a finite index type, not EuclideanSpace ℝ ι: the latter's fixed ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm instance cannot also host the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm the program's objective needs, so both norms (L2Norm, L1Norm) are defined directly by their defining sums on the same underlying type. Sparsity (Sparsity) takes a real-valued threshold s : ℝ, matching that the RIP parameter (1+λ)s(1+\lambda)s(1+λ)s used by the goal theorem is a real number even at integer base sparsity. A solution x^\hat xx^ "of the program" is formalized as an explicit argmin membership — feasibility (A.mulVec xhat = A.mulVec x) conjoined with optimality over the exact feasible set (∀ x', A.mulVec x' = A.mulVec x → l1Norm xhat ≤ l1Norm x') — never "there exists an estimator such that", the trivialization risk this chapter's own triage brief flags explicitly (shared with Chapter 3's Max-Cut): an existential reading would prove a different, strictly weaker statement. The conclusion is stated for every such x^\hat xx^, not one witness, matching that RIP forces uniqueness.

This mission covers Theorem 10.5.10 only, as the sole item; the probabilistic goal Theorem 10.5.1 (exact recovery for random sub-gaussian measurement matrices, which needs Theorem 10.5.10 together with a separate probabilistic argument, Theorem 10.5.11, that random matrices satisfy RIP), and the Lasso guarantee (Theorem 10.6.1), are both left out for lack of session time: each would need a fresh probabilistic apparatus (independent isotropic sub-gaussian random rows, a failure-probability bound) built from scratch in this chapter's own sub-namespace, with no reusable published definition from an earlier chunk. L2Norm, L1Norm, Sparsity and RIP are reusable by any later chapter or mission needing sparse vectors or the restricted isometry property; solvers' contributions are welcome on completing the proof of Theorem 10.5.10 itself (the magnitude-sorted support decomposition sketched under Difficulty above), and, beyond this mission's current scope, on Theorem 10.5.11 and Theorem 10.5.1.

Selected references

  • E. J. Candès, T. Tao, Decoding by linear programming, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 51 (2005), 4203–4215. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2005.858979
  • D. L. Donoho, Compressed sensing, IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 52 (2006), 1289–1306. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2006.871582
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Chapter 10. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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High-Dimensional Statistics IV: Dudley's Entropy Integral BoundTextbook

Motivation

Many of the central questions of high-dimensional statistics reduce to bounding the expected supremum of a stochastic process: the maximum correlation of noise with a family of candidate signals, the operator norm of a random matrix, the uniform deviation of an empirical process from its mean. Whenever the index set of the process is infinite or exponentially large, a naive union bound over "all" indices is either vacuous or requires re-deriving a tail bound from scratch for every new problem. Chaining is the general-purpose technique that removes this need: it bounds the expected supremum of a process purely in terms of the geometry of its index set, measured by how many balls of a given radius are needed to cover it. The classical form of this bound is due to Dudley (1967), building on ideas that trace to Kolmogorov; the exposition here follows Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint (Cambridge University Press, 2019), Chapter 5.

Setting

Fix an index set TTT and a collection of zero-mean random variables {Xθ,θ∈T}\{X_\theta,\theta\in T\}{Xθ​,θ∈T}. Say this collection is a sub-Gaussian process with respect to a (pseudo)metric ρX\rho_XρX​ on TTT (Definition 5.16) if

E[eλ(Xθ−Xθ′)]  ≤  eλ2ρX(θ,θ′)2/2for all θ,θ′∈T, λ∈R.\mathbb E\big[e^{\lambda(X_\theta-X_{\theta'})}\big] \;\le\; e^{\lambda^2\rho_X(\theta,\theta')^2/2} \qquad \text{for all } \theta,\theta'\in T,\ \lambda\in\mathbb R.E[eλ(Xθ​−Xθ′​)]≤eλ2ρX​(θ,θ′)2/2for all θ,θ′∈T, λ∈R.

This single condition covers, as special cases, the canonical Gaussian process Xθ=⟨θ,w⟩X_\theta = \langle\theta, w\rangleXθ​=⟨θ,w⟩ for www a standard Gaussian vector (with ρX\rho_XρX​ the Euclidean metric) and the Rademacher process built from i.i.d. Rademacher signs.

A δ\deltaδ-cover of TTT with respect to a metric ρ\rhoρ is a finite set {θ1,…,θN}⊂T\{\theta_1,\dots,\theta_N\}\subset T{θ1​,…,θN​}⊂T such that every θ∈T\theta\in Tθ∈T lies within ρ\rhoρ-distance δ\deltaδ of some θi\theta_iθi​; the δ\deltaδ-covering number N(δ;T,ρ)N(\delta;T,\rho)N(δ;T,ρ) is the size of the smallest such cover (Definition 5.1). The quantity log⁡N(δ;T,ρ)\log N(\delta;T,\rho)logN(δ;T,ρ) is the metric entropy of TTT at scale δ\deltaδ. Writing D:=sup⁡θ,θ′∈TρX(θ,θ′)D:=\sup_{\theta,\theta'\in T}\rho_X(\theta,\theta')D:=supθ,θ′∈T​ρX​(θ,θ′) for the diameter of TTT, the δ\deltaδ-truncated Dudley entropy integral is

J(δ;D)  :=  ∫δDlog⁡N(u;T) du.J(\delta; D) \;:=\; \int_\delta^D \sqrt{\log N(u;T)}\,du.J(δ;D):=∫δD​logN(u;T)​du.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 5.22 (Dudley's entropy integral bound)

E[sup⁡θ,θ′∈T(Xθ−Xθ′)]  ≤  2 E[sup⁡γ,γ′∈TρX(γ,γ′)≤δ(Xγ−Xγ′)]+32 J(δ/4;D),for any δ∈[0,D].\mathbb E\Big[\sup_{\theta,\theta'\in T}(X_\theta-X_{\theta'})\Big] \;\le\; 2\,\mathbb E\Big[\sup_{\substack{\gamma,\gamma'\in T\\\rho_X(\gamma,\gamma')\le\delta}}(X_\gamma-X_{\gamma'})\Big] + 32\,J(\delta/4; D), \qquad \text{for any } \delta\in[0,D].E[θ,θ′∈Tsup​(Xθ​−Xθ′​)]≤2E[γ,γ′∈TρX​(γ,γ′)≤δ​sup​(Xγ​−Xγ′​)]+32J(δ/4;D),for any δ∈[0,D].

The bound holds for every zero-mean sub-Gaussian process, with no further structure on TTT beyond its metric entropy — this is what makes it a general-purpose tool rather than a bound tailored to one model.

Milestone — Proposition 5.17 (one-step discretization bound)

The same conclusion with 32 J(δ/4;D)32\,J(\delta/4;D)32J(δ/4;D) replaced by the cruder single-scale term 4D2log⁡N(δ;T)4\sqrt{D^2\log N(\delta;T)}4D2logN(δ;T)​, under the extra technical hypothesis N(δ;T)≥10N(\delta;T)\ge 10N(δ;T)≥10. This is the one-step precursor whose refinement — iterating the discretization over a geometric sequence of scales instead of applying it once — is exactly what chaining improves.

Milestone — Theorem 5.25 (the Gaussian comparison principle)

A general comparison principle for pairs of centered Gaussian random vectors whose pairwise covariances are ordered coordinatewise and tested against a function with matching sign conditions on its mixed second partial derivatives: E[F(X)]≤E[F(Y)]\mathbb E[F(X)]\le\mathbb E[F(Y)]E[F(X)]≤E[F(Y)]. This is the source, by specializing FFF and the covariance-ordering sets, of both Slepian's inequality and the Sudakov–Fernique comparison, the two workhorse tools of Gaussian process theory used elsewhere in the chapter to obtain sharper, Gaussian-specific bounds than the sub-Gaussian chaining bound above.

Significance

Dudley's bound is the single most-used tool for controlling suprema of stochastic processes in high-dimensional statistics and empirical process theory: Gaussian complexity bounds for convex bodies, operator-norm bounds for random matrices, and uniform laws of large numbers for function classes are all obtained by computing a covering-number bound for the relevant index set and substituting it into Theorem 5.22 (see, for instance, Examples 5.18–5.21 later in the same chapter, and Chapters 13–14 of the book). Its significance is exactly its generality: it converts a purely geometric quantity — how "big" a set is under a metric — into a probabilistic bound, uniformly over every sub-Gaussian process on that set.

Formalizing it. The mathematical proof (interpolation-free, based on chaining and repeated union bounds) is well understood and not itself in question; what this mission produces is a faithful Lean statement of the theorem, its immediate one-step precursor, and the general Gaussian comparison principle that underlies the chapter's complementary (Gaussian-specific) results, each against Mathlib's own measure-theoretic and Gaussian-process infrastructure. All three theorems are currently stated as open goals (:= by sorry); no claim is made here that they are already formalized elsewhere on the platform (a fresh prior-art search for "Dudley," "chaining," "Slepian," "Sudakov," and "Gaussian comparison" returned no faithful matches).

Difficulty

The naive approach — apply Proposition 5.17's one-step discretization once, at whatever scale δ\deltaδ seems best — cannot see improvement past the cruder D2log⁡N(δ;T)\sqrt{D^2\log N(\delta;T)}D2logN(δ;T)​ scaling of the metric entropy at a single resolution. The chaining argument that proves Theorem 5.22 instead telescopes the supremum across a geometric ladder of covers at scales D2−1,D2−2,…D2^{-1},D2^{-2},\dotsD2−1,D2−2,…, paying for each scale's approximation with a union bound over its own (much smaller, for a small δ\deltaδ) covering number, and only then summing the resulting terms into an integral. The difficulty is not any single step of this argument — each step is an elementary sub-Gaussian tail bound — but bookkeeping the composition correctly: the recursive "best approximation at level mmm of the best approximation at level m+1m+1m+1" chain (Eq. (5.47)) must be built explicitly, and the telescoping sum of LLL union bounds, each over a set that itself depends on the level mmm, is what converts into an integral only in the L→∞L\to\inftyL→∞ limit as the covers refine to TTT itself.

Formalization scope

The index set TTT is formalized as a nonempty Fintype, rather than the book's general totally bounded metric space: this keeps every covering number, diameter, and supremum in this mission a genuine maximum over a finite, nonempty family (realized via ⨆/sInf over finite index types), rather than requiring the full apparatus of totally bounded infinite metric spaces to state the covering-number definition (Definition 5.1) faithfully without risking a vacuous or ill-defined infimum. This is a genuine narrowing of the book's stated generality, disclosed here rather than left implicit — the underlying mathematics of the proof does not depend on finiteness, but a faithful formalization of a general totally bounded space's covering number was judged out of scope for this mission's budget.

The constant 323232 in the goal theorem is kept exactly as stated; the book's own remark that "there is no particular significance to the constant 32, which could be improved with a more careful analysis" is not license to substitute a sharper constant, since doing so would no longer match what this particular proof establishes. Expectations are Bochner integrals against an explicit probability measure Prob, with integrability required as an explicit hypothesis in the sub-Gaussian process definition (SubGaussianProcess) rather than left implicit, since Mathlib's Bochner integral silently returns 000 for a non-integrable function — a trivializing formalization this mission's definitions and hypotheses rule out.

Theorem 5.25's "centered Gaussian random vector" is formalized using Mathlib's own ProbabilityTheory.HasGaussianLaw predicate (a genuine multivariate Gaussian law, not merely Gaussian marginals) together with an explicit coordinatewise mean-zero hypothesis, and its mixed second partial derivative condition is formalized via iteratedFDeriv ℝ 2 F applied to the relevant pair of standard basis vectors, keeping the sign pattern over the disjoint index sets AAA and BBB exact rather than collapsing it to a global convexity assumption on FFF.

Out of scope for this mission: Sudakov's minoration (the complementary lower bound on the expected supremum of a genuinely Gaussian process, Theorem 5.30, misidentified as "Theorem 5.36" in this mission's planning brief — the correct Sudakov minoration statement is Theorem 5.30, p. 148; Theorem 5.36 is instead a tail-bound generalization of Dudley's bound to ψq\psi_qψq​-Orlicz processes) and the Slepian/Sudakov–Fernique corollaries of Theorem 5.25 (Corollary 5.26, Theorem 5.27) — both natural follow-on work for a later contribution, once the Gaussian comparison principle formalized here is in place.

Selected references

  • M. J. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019. DOI: 10.1017/9781108627771. Chapter 5.
  • R. M. Dudley, "The sizes of compact subsets of Hilbert space and continuity of Gaussian processes," Journal of Functional Analysis, 1(3):290–330, 1967.
  • M. Ledoux and M. Talagrand, Probability in Banach Spaces: Isoperimetry and Processes, Springer, 1991.
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High-Dimensional Probability VII: Slepian's Inequality for Gaussian ProcessesTextbook

Motivation

A Gaussian process is a family (Xt)t∈T(X_t)_{t\in T}(Xt​)t∈T​ of jointly Gaussian real random variables indexed by an arbitrary set TTT — not necessarily time. The canonical example is Xt=⟨g,t⟩X_t = \langle g, t\rangleXt​=⟨g,t⟩ for ttt ranging over a subset T⊆RnT\subseteq\mathbb R^nT⊆Rn and ggg a standard Gaussian vector in Rn\mathbb R^nRn; this single family already encodes questions as varied as the operator norm of a random matrix, the size of a random projection, and the metric complexity of a convex body. In every one of these applications the object of interest reduces to the same quantity: Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T} X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​, the expected supremum of the process.

Bounding Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T} X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ directly is hard — computing it exactly is possible only in special cases, such as the reflection principle for Brownian motion. Slepian's inequality (David Slepian, 1962) sidesteps this by comparison: if a second Gaussian process (Yt)t∈T(Y_t)_{t\in T}(Yt​)t∈T​ has matching variances and at-least-as-large pairwise increments as (Xt)t∈T(X_t)_{t\in T}(Xt​)t∈T​, then YYY's supremum stochastically dominates XXX's. This turns a hard direct estimate into a search for a simpler comparison process — the technique that Sudakov and Fernique later sharpened by dropping the equal-variance hypothesis (Theorem 7.2.11), and that Sudakov used to derive a purely geometric lower bound on Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T}X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ from the covering numbers of (T,d)(T,d)(T,d) (Theorem 7.4.1, Sudakov's minoration inequality). Together these results are the entry point to the theory of Gaussian width and generic chaining that occupies the rest of the book (Chapters 7–9, 11), and they underlie sharp bounds on random matrices (Section 7.3), random projections (Chapter 9), and high-dimensional geometry more broadly (Adler and Taylor, Random Fields and Geometry, Springer, 2007; Talagrand, Upper and Lower Bounds for Stochastic Processes, Springer, 2014).

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P). A random process indexed by a set TTT is a family (Xt)t∈T(X_t)_{t\in T}(Xt​)t∈T​ of real random variables on Ω\OmegaΩ. It is a Gaussian process if every finite linear combination ∑t∈T0atXt\sum_{t\in T_0} a_t X_t∑t∈T0​​at​Xt​ (T0⊆TT_0\subseteq TT0​⊆T finite, at∈Ra_t\in \mathbb Rat​∈R) is a (possibly degenerate) normal random variable — equivalently, every finite marginal (Xt)t∈T0(X_t)_{t\in T_0}(Xt​)t∈T0​​ is a multivariate Gaussian vector. A process is mean zero if EXt=0EX_t = 0EXt​=0 for every ttt.

For a mean zero process, the increments d(t,s):=∥Xt−Xs∥L2=(E(Xt−Xs)2)1/2d(t,s) := \lVert X_t - X_s\rVert_{L^2} = (E(X_t - X_s)^2)^{1/2}d(t,s):=∥Xt​−Xs​∥L2​=(E(Xt​−Xs​)2)1/2 always define a (pseudo)metric on TTT — the canonical metric — turning the otherwise unstructured index set into a metric space. For a metric space (T,d)(T,d)(T,d) and $\varepsilon

0,the∗∗coveringnumber∗∗, the **covering number** ,the∗∗coveringnumber∗∗N(T,d,\varepsilon)isthesmallestcardinalityofafinitesubsetis the smallest cardinality of a finite subsetisthesmallestcardinalityofafinitesubsetN\subseteq Tsuchthateverypointofsuch that every point ofsuchthateverypointofTiswithinis withiniswithin\varepsilonofsomepointofof some point ofofsomepointofN(an(an(an\varepsilon−net);-net); −net);N(T,d,\varepsilon) := \infty$ if no finite net exists.

Because TTT need not be countable, sup⁡t∈TXt(ω)\sup_{t\in T} X_t(\omega)supt∈T​Xt​(ω) need not be a measurable function of ω\omegaω. Following the book's own convention, every quantity built from this supremum — Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T}X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ and P{sup⁡t∈TXt≥τ}P\{\sup_{t\in T}X_t\ge\tau\}P{supt∈T​Xt​≥τ} — is instead defined through the process's finite-dimensional marginals: as the supremum, over finite nonempty T0⊆TT_0\subseteq TT0​⊆T, of Emax⁡t∈T0XtE\max_{t\in T_0}X_tEmaxt∈T0​​Xt​ (respectively P{max⁡t∈T0Xt≥τ}P\{\max_{t\in T_0}X_t\ge\tau\}P{maxt∈T0​​Xt​≥τ}). This sidesteps the measurability question entirely, at the cost of the quantity possibly being +∞+\infty+∞.

Formalization targets

Slepian's inequality (Theorem 7.2.1, goal)

Let (Xt)t∈T(X_t)_{t\in T}(Xt​)t∈T​ and (Yt)t∈T(Y_t)_{t\in T}(Yt​)t∈T​ be mean zero Gaussian processes with EXt2=EYt2EX_t^2 = EY_t^2EXt2​=EYt2​ and E(Xt−Xs)2≤E(Yt−Ys)2E(X_t-X_s)^2 \le E(Y_t-Y_s)^2E(Xt​−Xs​)2≤E(Yt​−Ys​)2 for all t,s∈Tt,s\in Tt,s∈T. Then for every τ∈R\tau\in\mathbb Rτ∈R,

P{sup⁡t∈TXt≥τ}≤P{sup⁡t∈TYt≥τ},P\{\sup_{t\in T} X_t \ge \tau\} \le P\{\sup_{t\in T} Y_t \ge \tau\},P{t∈Tsup​Xt​≥τ}≤P{t∈Tsup​Yt​≥τ},

and consequently Esup⁡t∈TXt≤Esup⁡t∈TYtE\sup_{t\in T} X_t \le E\sup_{t\in T} Y_tEsupt∈T​Xt​≤Esupt∈T​Yt​.

Sudakov-Fernique's inequality (Theorem 7.2.11, milestone)

Under only the increment hypothesis E(Xt−Xs)2≤E(Yt−Ys)2E(X_t-X_s)^2 \le E(Y_t-Y_s)^2E(Xt​−Xs​)2≤E(Yt​−Ys​)2 (no equal-variance hypothesis),

Esup⁡t∈TXt≤Esup⁡t∈TYt.E\sup_{t\in T} X_t \le E\sup_{t\in T} Y_t.Et∈Tsup​Xt​≤Et∈Tsup​Yt​.

This is the weaker-hypothesis, strictly more applicable form: it is what Sudakov's minoration inequality and the sharp Gaussian random matrix bound of Section 7.3 both invoke.

Sudakov's minoration inequality (Theorem 7.4.1, milestone)

Let (Xt)t∈T(X_t)_{t\in T}(Xt​)t∈T​ be a mean zero Gaussian process with canonical metric ddd. For every ε≥0\varepsilon\ge 0ε≥0 at which N(T,d,ε)=:NN(T,d,\varepsilon)=:NN(T,d,ε)=:N is finite,

Esup⁡t∈TXt≥c ε log⁡NE\sup_{t\in T} X_t \ge c\,\varepsilon\,\sqrt{\log N}Et∈Tsup​Xt​≥cεlogN​

for an absolute constant c>0c>0c>0. This is the weakest, most stable form of the bound: it names no numerical value for ccc, so it survives any later sharpening of the constant.

Slepian's inequality, finite-dimensional case (Theorem 7.2.9, milestone)

The vector-indexed special case of Theorem 7.2.1 (TTT finite), proved first by Gaussian interpolation and then extended to the general index set.

Significance

The results themselves. Slepian's inequality is the founding comparison theorem for Gaussian processes; Sudakov-Fernique's inequality is its practically indispensable generalization, used routinely to bound suprema of Gaussian processes without needing to track variances explicitly. Sudakov's minoration inequality is the first bridge from the probability of a Gaussian process to the metric geometry of its index set, complementing Dudley's upper bound (Chapter 8) and together giving matching bounds — up to a logarithmic factor, and exactly in many cases of interest — on Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T}X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ purely from the covering numbers of (T,d)(T,d)(T,d). Downstream, this machinery gives the sharp bound E∥A∥≤m+nE\lVert A\rVert \le \sqrt m + \sqrt nE∥A∥≤m​+n​ on Gaussian random matrices (Section 7.3), underlies the Gaussian width used throughout convex geometry and compressed sensing (Chapters 9, 11), and bounds the covering numbers of polytopes and other convex sets (Corollary 7.4.4).

Formalizing it. All three inequalities are proved by the book (Gaussian interpolation and integration by parts for Slepian/Sudakov-Fernique; a direct application of Sudakov-Fernique to a well-chosen comparison process for Sudakov's minoration), so this mission's work is formalizing the statements faithfully and precisely — including the finite-marginal convention needed to make Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T}X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ and P{sup⁡t∈TXt≥τ}P\{\sup_{t\in T}X_t\ge\tau\}P{supt∈T​Xt​≥τ} meaningful for an uncountable index set without begging the underlying measurability question. The Gaussian interpolation technique itself (Lemmas 7.2.3, 7.2.5, 7.2.7) is not part of this mission's formalization scope; it is the proof method for the milestones and belongs to solvers closing them.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea — bound Esup⁡tXtE\sup_t X_tEsupt​Xt​ by controlling each XtX_tXt​ separately, e.g. via a union bound over a net — throws away exactly the structure Slepian-type comparisons exploit: the joint Gaussianity across ttt, not marginal tail behavior at each fixed ttt. A union bound needs a net and a modulus of continuity to begin with; Slepian's and Sudakov-Fernique's inequalities need neither — they compare two processes directly through their covariance structure, which is what makes the technique (Gaussian interpolation: continuously deform the covariance of one process into the other's, and track how a smooth, nearly-indicator functional behaves along the path) work with no assumption on TTT beyond the two hypotheses stated. The genuine difficulty is the smooth-interpolation argument itself — showing that Ef(Z(u))E f(Z(u))Ef(Z(u)) is monotone in uuu for the right choice of test function fff — which is exactly the part left as a milestone for solvers to formalize, not sketched here per the mission format's own rule against proof ideas.

Formalization scope

Esup⁡t∈TXtE\sup_{t\in T}X_tEsupt∈T​Xt​ (ProcessESup) is valued in EReal, not ℝ: the finite-marginal supremum a real-valued definition would silently default to the junk value 000 when the set of finite-marginal expectations is unbounded above — exactly the case the book itself records as Esup⁡t∈TXt=∞E\sup_{t\in T}X_t=\inftyEsupt∈T​Xt​=∞ (Exercise 7.4.2, a non-relatively-compact index set). P\{\sup_{t\in T}X_t\ge\tau\} (ProcessTailProb) stays real-valued, since it is always bounded in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and so carries no such risk. Both are defined through finite nonempty subsets of TTT, per the book's own footnote to Section 7.2; no separability, continuity, or countability assumption is placed on TTT itself.

Gaussianity is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.IsGaussianProcess — every finite restriction of the process has a Gaussian law — which is definitionally the book's Definition 7.1.10 ("every finite linear combination is Gaussian"); mean-zero is stated as an explicit hypothesis alongside it. Integrability of every quantity appearing under an expectation is not stated as a separate hypothesis: Fernique's theorem (already in Mathlib for general Gaussian measures) guarantees a Gaussian process has finite moments of every order, exactly as the book takes for granted.

Sudakov's minoration inequality (Theorem 7.4.1) is formalized for the case the book's own proof actually covers — N(T,d,ε)N(T,d,\varepsilon)N(T,d,ε) finite, taken as a hypothesis = (N : ℕ) rather than as a case split inside the conclusion — since the book itself defers the infinite-covering-number case to a separate, unproved exercise (7.4.2). This keeps TTT fully general (still possibly uncountable) at every fixed ε\varepsilonε where the net is finite, which rules out a trivializing reading of the theorem: nothing here forces TTT itself to be finite or countable, only the covering number at the scale ε\varepsilonε in play, which is the book's own hypothesis.

Definitions reusable beyond this mission: ProcessESup, ProcessTailProb, CanonicalMetric, and CoveringNumber are exactly the substrate Chapters 8 ("Dudley's Integral Inequality"), 9 ("The Matrix Deviation Inequality"), and 11 ("Dvoretzky-Milman's Theorem") need for Gaussian width and generic chaining; per this series' plan those missions restate them locally (drafts cannot import another draft's definitions), using this chunk's forms as the faithful reference. Contributions closing the Gaussian-interpolation machinery (Lemmas 7.2.3–7.2.8) as a reusable definitions layer, beyond what any one milestone needs, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018. https://www.math.uci.edu/~rvershyn/papers/HDP-book/HDP-book.pdf
  • D. Slepian, "The one-sided barrier problem for Gaussian noise", Bell System Technical Journal 41 (1962), 463–501.
  • V. N. Sudakov, "Gaussian random processes and measures of solid angles in Hilbert space", Soviet Mathematics Doklady 12 (1971), 412–415.
  • X. Fernique, "Regularité des trajectoires des fonctions aléatoires gaussiennes", in École d'Été de Probabilités de Saint-Flour IV-1974, Springer Lecture Notes in Mathematics 480 (1975), 1–96.
  • M. Talagrand, Upper and Lower Bounds for Stochastic Processes: Modern Methods and Classical Problems, Springer, 2014.
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Introduction to Stochastic Programming VII: Convergence Rates for Sample Average ApproximationTextbook

Motivation

Most stochastic programs cannot be solved exactly: the expectation defining the objective is an integral over a continuous or high-dimensional random parameter, and evaluating it exactly is as hard as the optimization itself. The standard remedy is Monte Carlo: draw a sample of size ν from the random parameter, replace the true expectation by the sample average, and solve the resulting finite-dimensional "sample average approximation" (SAA) instead. This only helps if the SAA's optimal value and optimal solution actually converge to the true problem's as ν → ∞, and if that convergence is fast enough to be useful with a sample size one can actually draw and solve. Birge & Louveaux's Chapter 9, §9.5, states the two central asymptotic results that justify this approach for a general (not necessarily linear, not necessarily two-stage) stochastic program: a central limit theorem describing the SAA optimal value's fluctuations around the truth (Theorem 6, after Shapiro [1991]), and an exponential-rate large-deviation bound on how quickly both the SAA value and the SAA solution concentrate near their true counterparts as the sample grows (Theorem 7, after Dai, Chen & Birge [2000]). This mission formalizes both statements.

Setting

Fix a feasible set X ⊆ ℝⁿ of first-stage decisions and an outcome space Ξ carrying a σ-algebra. The book considers the general stochastic program

z* = inf_{x ∈ X} ∫_Ξ g(x,ξ) P(dξ),                                                        (5.1)

with g : ℝⁿ × Ξ → ℝ an abstract integrand — no longer specialized to the two-stage recourse cost Q(x,ξ) of Chapters 3–7, matching the book's own level of generality at this point in §9.5 — and ξ a random element of (Ξ, 𝓑, P). Given an i.i.d. sample ξ₁, ξ₂, … from P, the sample average approximation of size ν is

zν = inf_{x ∈ X} (1/ν) Σᵢ₌₁^ν g(x,ξᵢ) .                                                    (5.2)

Both z* and zν are attained (an optimal solution x* of (5.1); a random optimal solution xν(ω) of (5.2) at each sample outcome ω). The two chapter results describe, in different regimes, how (zν, xν) relates to (z*, x*) as ν → ∞.

Formalized in this mission: X sits in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); the sample is a sequence ξ : ℕ → Ω → Ξ on an ambient probability space (Ω, P), independent and identically distributed (Mathlib's iIndepFun/IdentDistrib); z*, x*, zν, xν are given as hypotheses that pin them down as the optimal value and an optimal point of (5.1)/(5.2) (a lower bound over X plus attainment at the named point), rather than computed via sInf/sSup of an image set — Real's extended-real infimum returns the junk value 0 on an unbounded-below or empty set, which would silently misstate the theorems if X, g are only assumed as loosely as the book states them.

Formalization targets

Goal — Chapter 9, Theorem 7 (p. 412)

∀ ε>0, ∃ α>0, ∃ β>0,
  (∀ ν>0, P[|zν − z*| ≥ ε] ≤ α·e^{−βν})
  ∧ (x* the unique optimal solution of (5.1) → ∀ ν≥1, P[‖xν − x*‖ ≥ ε] ≤ α·e^{−βν})

under the moment hypothesis: there exist a>0, θ₀>0, η : Ξ → ℝ with |g(x,ξ)| ≤ a·η(ξ) for all x ∈ X, and E[e^{θ·η(ξ)}] < ∞ for every θ ∈ [0,θ₀]. This is the mission's goal because it is a clean, self-contained existential-constants statement — no algorithm to define, unlike most of the chapter's other convergence results — and because, like Chunk 03's Theorem 6(a), the book's own proof cites an external paper (Dai, Chen & Birge [2000], Theorems 3.1–3.2) and gives no in-text derivation: the statement itself, not a derivation from a preceding numbered result of this book, is the mission's content.

Milestone — Chapter 9, Theorem 6 (p. 411)

X compact, g(x,·) measurable ∀x∈X, g Lipschitz in x with an L²(μ) envelope a,
x0 the unique minimizer of x ↦ E g(x) over X
  ⟹ √ν·[zν − E g(x0)] converges in distribution to N(0, Var g(x0))

Included as a milestone (not used in Theorem 7's proof, which the book does not give — see above) because it is the chapter's other general SAA convergence result, standing on the same setup (5.1)–(5.2), and because Mathlib's MeasureTheory.Function.ConvergenceInDistribution (the TendstoInDistribution predicate) plus Probability.Distributions.Gaussian.Real (gaussianReal) and Mathlib's own i.i.d. central limit theorem (ProbabilityTheory.tendstoInDistribution_inv_sqrt_mul_sum_sub) supply exactly the vocabulary needed to state — not prove — a faithful weak-convergence-to-Gaussian conclusion. Chunk 09's BRIEF.md flagged this as a milestone to attempt "only if your workspace has enough of a weak-convergence/CLT toolkit in Mathlib to state it faithfully"; the toolkit is present (verified directly, not assumed from substrate.md, which predates this rev's addition of ConvergenceInDistribution.lean), so it is included.

Significance

Every practical Monte Carlo solution method for stochastic programming — every discretization, every scenario-reduction heuristic, every "solve on a sample and hope" approach used throughout the rest of the book and the wider literature — rests on exactly these two results: that the SAA converges at all (Theorem 6's CLT gives the asymptotic distribution of the error) and that it converges fast enough to bound the error at a finite, computable sample size (Theorem 7's exponential rate). Formalizing them gives Prove2Me a first foothold in convergence-rate theory for stochastic optimization under sampling, a genre distinct from the concentration-of-measure results already reachable via Mathlib's sub-Gaussian machinery (Probability/Moments/SubGaussian.lean): sub-Gaussian concentration bounds a fixed-size sample's deviation from its own mean, not the rate-in-ν convergence of a nested sequence of optimization problems' values and solutions to a limiting problem's — the object Theorem 7 is actually about.

Difficulty

Theorem 6 needs a functional/uniform argument over the whole feasible set X (not the plain i.i.d. CLT at the single point x0) to control the interaction between sampling noise and the optimization over x; the book states it without proof, citing Shapiro [1991]. Theorem 7's constants α, β are produced by a large-deviation argument specific to the exponential-moment condition, again cited rather than derived in the book. Both are left as sorry; the value of this mission is the faithful statement, matching the difficulty pattern already established for Chunk 03's Theorem 6(a) (a result the book itself only cites).

Formalization scope

  • Existential constants left abstract, never sharpened or weakened. Theorem 7's α, β are ∃-bound exactly as the book leaves them (trap 8 of reference/FAITHFULNESS_TRAPS.md: the existentials sit outside every quantifier they must be uniform over — in particular outside the ∀ ν). No closed form for α, β in terms of a, θ0, ε is invented.
  • The book's own typo is corrected, and the correction is flagged. The printed (5.8) reads P[E[zν − z*)] ≥ ε] ≤ αe^{−βν} — an unmatched parenthesis and a stray E[·] around a quantity that is already deterministic. milestones.yaml/MODERATION_NOTES.md quote the typo verbatim; the Lean and natural_language_statement use the unambiguous P[|zν − z*| ≥ ε] the surrounding prose (and every other occurrence of this quantity in the section) plainly intends.
  • g is left fully abstract, not specialized to the two-stage recourse cost Q(x,ξ) of Chunks 03–07, matching §9.5's own generality and keeping this mission independent of every other chunk's namespace (no cross-chunk import, per missions/README.md's "Prior art" column for this chunk: "none expected").
  • z*, x*, zν, xν are hypothesis-characterized, not sInf/sSup-defined, to avoid the real extended-value junk-value trap (trap 5) discussed under Setting above.
  • Measurability of zν, xν is an added hypothesis (hzSAA_meas/hxSAA_meas/hzSAA_meas in Theorem 6), not derivable from the other hypotheses since g is abstract; the book is silent on this technical point, standard for an applied convergence theorem, but Lean's P {ω | …} needs it for the displayed probability to be the actual measure of the event rather than an outer-measure value on a possibly non-measurable set.
  • Convergence in distribution (Theorem 6) is formalized via Mathlib's TendstoInDistribution, with the limiting Gaussian supplied as an explicit random variable Y on a separate probability space with HasLaw Y (gaussianReal 0 σ²) P' — the same pattern Mathlib's own CLT (tendstoInDistribution_inv_sqrt_mul_sum_sub) uses for its own conclusion.
  • Trivialization risk (this chapter's own, beyond paper.md's book-wide list item 5). A formalization that quantifies α, β universally, or with an invented closed form, would assert something the book's proof (cited, not given) does not establish; a formalization of Theorem 7 that used a computable sInf-defined zν on a set that is not shown bounded below would let the conclusion hold vacuously via the junk value 0, independent of the genuine large-deviation content — both are excluded by the choices above.

Selected references

  • Birge, J.R., Louveaux, F. Introduction to Stochastic Programming, 2nd ed., Springer 2011, Chapter 9, §9.5 (pp. 409–412).
  • Shapiro, A. "Asymptotic properties of statistical estimators in stochastic programming." Annals of Statistics 19 (1991), 1463–1466 — proof of Theorem 6 (their Theorem 3.3).
  • Dai, L., Chen, C.-H., Birge, J.R. "Convergence properties of two-stage stochastic programming." Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications 106 (2000), 489–509 — proof of Theorem 7 (their Theorems 3.1–3.2).
  • King, A.J., Rockafellar, R.T. "Asymptotic theory for solutions in statistical estimation and stochastic programming." Mathematics of Operations Research 18 (1993), 148–162 — the general theory of §9.5's opening (Theorem 5), the chapter's third general result, not formalized here (see STATUS.md for why it is out of scope).
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High-Dimensional Probability II: Concentration Inequalities for Sums of Independent Random VariablesTextbook

Motivation

The central limit theorem tells us that a normalized sum of independent random variables converges in distribution to a Gaussian. For applications — bounding the failure probability of a randomized algorithm, controlling the error of a Monte Carlo estimator, proving a generalization bound in learning theory — a limiting distribution is not enough: what is needed is a single, explicit, non-asymptotic inequality that holds for every fixed sample size NNN, not merely as N→∞N \to \inftyN→∞. Hoeffding's inequality (Wassily Hoeffding, 1963) and Bernstein's inequality (Sergei Bernstein, 1920s–1940s, in the form used here due to Vadim Bennett and later authors) are the two archetypal answers: both give an explicit Gaussian-type tail bound for a weighted sum of independent random variables, valid for every NNN, with all constants made explicit. They are the workhorses behind concentration of measure, high-dimensional statistics, and the non-asymptotic analysis of randomized algorithms; a textbook trying to reach the Johnson–Lindenstrauss lemma, random matrix norms, or the restricted isometry property has to pass through this chapter first, because every one of those results is itself an application of a weighted-sum concentration inequality to a specific choice of random variables.

The central limit theorem's own error term is the obstruction that direct concentration inequalities are built to avoid: the Berry–Esseen theorem (Andrew C. Berry, 1941; Carl-Gustav Esseen, 1942) bounds the normal approximation's error at order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​, which is too slow to recover a genuinely exponential tail bound for finite NNN. Hoeffding's and Bernstein's inequalities are proved instead by a direct argument — bounding the moment generating function of the sum and optimizing a Markov/Chernoff exponential tilt — that never invokes the central limit theorem or its error term at all.

The sub-gaussian and sub-exponential norms

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P). For a real random variable XXX on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), define its sub-gaussian norm

∥X∥ψ2:=inf⁡{t>0:Eexp⁡(X2/t2) is finite and ≤2}\|X\|_{\psi_2} := \inf\{t > 0 : \mathbb E \exp(X^2/t^2) \text{ is finite and } \le 2\}∥X∥ψ2​​:=inf{t>0:Eexp(X2/t2) is finite and ≤2}

and its sub-exponential norm

∥X∥ψ1:=inf⁡{t>0:Eexp⁡(∣X∣/t) is finite and ≤2}.\|X\|_{\psi_1} := \inf\{t > 0 : \mathbb E \exp(|X|/t) \text{ is finite and } \le 2\}.∥X∥ψ1​​:=inf{t>0:Eexp(∣X∣/t) is finite and ≤2}.

In both definitions, the requirement that the exponential moment be finite (i.e. that the moment-generating integrand be integrable), and not merely satisfy "≤2\le 2≤2" as a bare inequality, is essential: without it a moment that is genuinely infinite for a given ttt would vacuously count as "≤2\le 2≤2" under the Bochner integral's convention that a non-integrable function integrates to 000, and every random variable — however heavy-tailed — would trivially have norm 000. XXX is called sub-gaussian (respectively sub-exponential) when this infimum is over a nonempty set, i.e. when some finite ttt makes the moment finite and at most 222. These are genuine norms (up to the identification of almost-surely-equal random variables) on the vector space of random variables for which they are finite, and they are the natural non-asymptotic yardsticks for tail heaviness: ∥X∥ψ2<∞\|X\|_{\psi_2} < \infty∥X∥ψ2​​<∞ characterizes a Gaussian-type tail P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp⁡(−ct2/∥X∥ψ22)P\{|X| \ge t\} \le 2\exp(-ct^2/\|X\|_{\psi_2}^2)P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp(−ct2/∥X∥ψ2​2​), while ∥X∥ψ1<∞\|X\|_{\psi_1} < \infty∥X∥ψ1​​<∞ characterizes an exponential-type tail P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp⁡(−ct/∥X∥ψ1)P\{|X| \ge t\} \le 2\exp(-ct/\|X\|_{\psi_1})P{∣X∣≥t}≤2exp(−ct/∥X∥ψ1​​). Every bounded random variable — in particular every Bernoulli or Rademacher (symmetric Bernoulli) random variable — is sub-gaussian, and the square of a sub-gaussian random variable is sub-exponential; a genuinely sub-exponential (not sub-gaussian) example is the squared coordinate gi2g_i^2gi2​ of a standard Gaussian vector, or the exponential distribution itself.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 2.8.2 (Bernstein's inequality, weighted sum). Let X1,…,XNX_1, \dots, X_NX1​,…,XN​ be independent, mean-zero, sub-exponential random variables on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P), and let a=(a1,…,aN)∈RNa = (a_1, \dots, a_N) \in \mathbb R^Na=(a1​,…,aN​)∈RN. Then, for every t≥0t \ge 0t≥0,

P{∣∑i=1NaiXi∣≥t}  ≤  2exp⁡[−cmin⁡(t2K2∥a∥22,tK∥a∥∞)],P\Bigl\{\Bigl|\sum_{i=1}^N a_i X_i\Bigr| \ge t\Bigr\} \;\le\; 2\exp\left[-c\min\left(\frac{t^2}{K^2\|a\|_2^2}, \frac{t}{K\|a\|_\infty}\right)\right],P{​i=1∑N​ai​Xi​​≥t}≤2exp[−cmin(K2∥a∥22​t2​,K∥a∥∞​t​)],

where K=max⁡i∥Xi∥ψ1K = \max_i \|X_i\|_{\psi_1}K=maxi​∥Xi​∥ψ1​​ and c>0c > 0c>0 is an absolute constant that does not depend on NNN, the XiX_iXi​, aaa, or ttt.

The goal is deliberately the weighted and sub-exponential form, the weakest of the chapter's results that is still stable under the improvements a solver might find: it neither fixes ai≡1a_i \equiv 1ai​≡1 (the unweighted Theorem 2.8.1, a special case) nor restricts to the lighter sub-gaussian tail (Theorem 2.6.3, which follows from a strictly stronger hypothesis). Both weaker theorems, plus Hoeffding's and Chernoff's inequalities, are included as milestones because Bernstein's own proof is built directly from them.

Significance

The result itself. Bernstein's inequality is the two-tail-regime concentration bound: a sub-gaussian tail exp⁡(−ct2/(K∥a∥2)2)\exp(-ct^2/(K\|a\|_2)^2)exp(−ct2/(K∥a∥2​)2) near the mean, transitioning to a heavier sub-exponential tail exp⁡(−ct/(K∥a∥∞))\exp(-ct/(K\|a\|_\infty))exp(−ct/(K∥a∥∞​)) far from it, exactly the behavior one should expect from a mixture of light-tailed terms with one heavy-tailed outlier. It underlies the concentration of quadratic forms (Chapter 6's Hanson–Wright inequality controls ∑εiεj\sum \varepsilon_i \varepsilon_j∑εi​εj​-type terms, which are themselves products of sub-gaussians and hence sub-exponential by Lemma 2.7.7), and it is the standard tool for bounding empirical-process suprema whose summands are not bounded but merely light-tailed.

Formalizing it. No formalization of Bernstein's inequality — in either the weighted or unweighted, or sub-gaussian or sub-exponential form — exists yet on Prove2Me (GET /theorems?q=Bernstein and q=sub-exponential return no relevant hits, checked 2026-09-17). What this mission produces is not just the statement but the machinery underneath it: a working Orlicz-norm treatment of ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ that a later mission (the Hanson–Wright inequality, or any future chapter that needs sub-exponential concentration) can build on directly.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea — squaring both sides and applying Chebyshev, as one does to prove the weak law of large numbers — gives only a polynomial tail bound decaying like 1/N1/N1/N, far too weak to be useful (this is exactly the point made by the chapter's opening discussion of the coin-tossing example, comparing the linear decay from Chebyshev against the target exponential decay). The central limit theorem promises the right shape of tail asymptotically but, per Berry–Esseen, with an error of order 1/N1/\sqrt N1/N​ that swamps any exponential gain for large deviations — the CLT approximation is simply not valid in the tail regime the inequality needs. The actual argument instead controls the moment generating function of the full sum directly and optimizes an exponential (Chernoff) tilt; this is why the sub-gaussian and sub-exponential norms — MGF-control objects, not moment or tail objects per se — are the right technical vehicle, even though Proposition 2.5.2 and 2.7.1 show all these characterizations are equivalent up to constants. The min of two terms in Bernstein's exponent is not an artifact of a loose proof: it reflects a genuinely two-regime tail (Gaussian near the mean, exponential in the far tail), and collapsing it to a single term in either direction would either be false (dropping the exponential term) or needlessly weak (dropping the Gaussian term, which is what a naive union bound over the worst single term would give).

Formalization scope

Random variables are ℝ-valued functions on an explicit probability space (Ω, mΩ, P) (Ω : Type, MeasurableSpace Ω, P : Measure Ω, [IsProbabilityMeasure P]), matching the book's setup throughout. Independence is Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.iIndepFun, and tail probabilities are stated with P.real, Mathlib's ℝ-valued measure evaluation, which corresponds directly to the book's P{⋅}P\{\cdot\}P{⋅}.

Both Orlicz norms are defined locally, as genuine infima matching Definitions 2.5.6 and 2.7.5 verbatim (subgaussianNorm, subexponentialNorm, each sInf {t > 0 : Integrable (fun ω => E[...]) P ∧ E[...] ≤ 2}), rather than reused from Mathlib's HasSubgaussianMGF (Mathlib.Probability.Moments.SubGaussian). The Integrable conjunct is not optional dressing: Mathlib's Bochner integral of a non-integrable function is 0 by convention, so a bare E[...] ≤ 2 (without asserting integrability) would be satisfied by every t for which the moment is actually infinite, collapsing the sub-gaussian norm of a standard Gaussian (and, symmetrically, the sub-exponential norm of any heavy-tailed variable) to 0 — a trivializing formalization the mission was moderated to rule out. The same Integrable conjunct appears in every moment hypothesis (general_hoeffding, bernstein_unweighted, bernstein_weighted): ∃ s > 0, Integrable (...) P ∧ ∫ ... ≤ 2, so that the hypothesis is not satisfied vacuously by non-integrable exponential moments either. HasSubgaussianMGF bounds the moment generating function directly with a variance-proxy parameter σ2\sigma^2σ2 (E exp(tX) ≤ exp(c t²/2)), which is a different object definitionally from the Orlicz ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ norm — equivalent up to a constant factor by the book's own Proposition 2.5.2, but not interchangeable without restating that equivalence — and Mathlib has no sub-exponential analogue at all. Since the goal theorem and two of its milestones need the sub-exponential norm, one consistent convention (the book's own Orlicz norms) is used for both ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and ψ2\psi_2ψ2​ throughout the mission, rather than mixing Mathlib's MGF-based sub-gaussian convention with a locally defined sub-exponential one.

Every occurrence of the book's "ccc is an absolute constant" is formalized as a genuine existential quantifier fixed before the random variables, the vector a, and t are introduced: ∃ c : ℝ, 0 < c ∧ ∀ ..., P.real {...} ≤ 2 * Real.exp (-(c * ...)). No numeral is substituted for c anywhere; a solver's proof may use any positive constant it can establish, exactly mirroring the book's own non-constructive existence claims. The trivializing formalization this rules out is fixing c to a specific small numeral (which would be a strictly stronger, easier, and unfaithful claim) or, in the other direction, weakening the statement by allowing c to depend on N, the XiX_iXi​, a, or t (which would make the theorem vacuous, since any such bound trivially holds for a small enough ccc depending on the instance).

Chernoff's inequality (Theorem 2.3.1) needs no Orlicz norm — Bernoulli parameters pip_ipi​ are given directly via P.real {X i = 1} = p i ∧ P.real {X i = 0} = 1 - p i, and the conclusion uses Real.rpow (^ on ℝ → ℝ → ℝ) for the real exponent ttt in (eμ/t)t(e\mu/t)^t(eμ/t)t. Hoeffding's inequality for symmetric Bernoulli variables (Theorem 2.2.2) is likewise self-contained, needing only the two-point probability hypothesis defining the Rademacher distribution.

Selected references

  • W. Hoeffding, Probability Inequalities for Sums of Bounded Random Variables, Journal of the American Statistical Association 58(301), 1963. https://doi.org/10.2307/2282952
  • S. Bernstein, The Theory of Probabilities, Gastehizdat Publishing House, Moscow, 1946 (Russian; the inequality is due to Bernstein's earlier 1920s–1930s work, this textbook states the modern sub-exponential form following later expositions).
  • A. C. Berry, The Accuracy of the Gaussian Approximation to the Sum of Independent Variates, Transactions of the American Mathematical Society 49(1), 1941. https://doi.org/10.2307/1990053
  • C.-G. Esseen, On the Liapunoff Limit of Error in the Theory of Probability, Arkiv för Matematik, Astronomi och Fysik A28, 1942.
  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, Chapter 2. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108231596
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Machine LearningProbabilityRandom Matrix Theory·Captain: mikedeng1

High-Dimensional Probability I: Approximate Carathéodory's TheoremTextbook

Motivation

Many arguments in high-dimensional geometry, statistics and computer science need to approximate a point of a convex set by an average of a handful of extreme points, rather than represent it exactly. The classical Carathéodory theorem (1907) answers the exact question: every point of the convex hull of a set T⊆RnT \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nT⊆Rn is a convex combination of at most n+1n+1n+1 points of TTT. That bound is tight and grows with the dimension nnn, which makes it useless whenever nnn is large — exactly the regime of interest in high-dimensional probability.

B. Maurey's empirical method — an unpublished 1980–81 result reported by G. Pisier, "Remarques sur un résultat non publié de B. Maurey," Séminaire d'Analyse Fonctionnelle 1980–1981 — and later applied by B. Carl to bound covering numbers of operators between Banach spaces (Inequalities of Bernstein-Jackson-type and the degree of compactness of operators in Banach spaces, Ann. Inst. Fourier 35(3), 1985, 79–118), replaces the exact question with an approximate one and removes the dimension dependence entirely: to approximate xxx to accuracy ε\varepsilonε, the number of points needed depends only on ε\varepsilonε, never on nnn. Vershynin's High-Dimensional Probability opens with this result as its "Appetizer," using it to illustrate the book's central theme — that randomness is a tool for constructing deterministic combinatorial objects — before any probabilistic machinery has been introduced.

Setting

A convex combination of finitely many points z1,…,zm∈Rnz_1, \dots, z_m \in \mathbb{R}^nz1​,…,zm​∈Rn is a sum ∑i=1mλizi\sum_{i=1}^m \lambda_i z_i∑i=1m​λi​zi​ with λi≥0\lambda_i \ge 0λi​≥0 and ∑iλi=1\sum_i \lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1. The convex hull conv⁡(T)\operatorname{conv}(T)conv(T) of a set T⊆RnT \subseteq \mathbb{R}^nT⊆Rn is the set of all convex combinations of all finite collections of points of TTT. The diameter of TTT is diam⁡(T)=sup⁡{∥s−t∥2:s,t∈T}\operatorname{diam}(T) = \sup\{\|s-t\|_2 : s, t \in T\}diam(T)=sup{∥s−t∥2​:s,t∈T}, the Euclidean norm throughout.

The classical Carathéodory theorem states that every x∈conv⁡(T)x \in \operatorname{conv}(T)x∈conv(T) is a convex combination of at most n+1n+1n+1 points of TTT — with n+1n+1n+1 generally unavoidable, attained by a simplex. The question this mission answers is different: given that we are willing to approximate xxx rather than represent it exactly, and willing to use only combinations with equal coefficients 1/k1/k1/k (an average of kkk points, with repetition allowed), how large must kkk be as a function of the desired accuracy?

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 0.0.2, Approximate Carathéodory's theorem

diam(T)≤1, x∈conv⁡(T), k∈Z>0 ⟹ ∃ x1,…,xk∈T:∥x−1k∑j=1kxj∥2≤1k.\text{diam}(T) \le 1,\ x \in \operatorname{conv}(T),\ k \in \mathbb{Z}_{>0} \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\, x_1,\dots,x_k \in T:\quad \left\| x - \frac{1}{k}\sum_{j=1}^{k} x_j \right\|_2 \le \frac{1}{\sqrt{k}}.diam(T)≤1, x∈conv(T), k∈Z>0​ ⟹ ∃x1​,…,xk​∈T:​x−k1​j=1∑k​xj​​2​≤k​1​.

The quantifiers are exactly this order: for every bounded TTT, every point of its convex hull, and every target kkk, such an averaging set exists. This is the weakest stable statement carrying the theorem's content — the number of points kkk does not depend on the dimension nnn, and the coefficients are forced to be uniform — and it is the form the corollary below invokes directly.

Milestone — Corollary 0.0.4, Covering polytopes by balls

P=conv⁡(T), ∣T∣=N, diam⁡(P)≤1, ε>0 ⟹ ∃ C, ∣C∣≤N⌈1/ε2⌉:P⊆⋃c∈CB‾(c,ε).P = \operatorname{conv}(T),\ |T| = N,\ \operatorname{diam}(P) \le 1,\ \varepsilon > 0 \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\, C,\ |C| \le N^{\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2 \rceil}:\quad P \subseteq \bigcup_{c \in C} \overline{B}(c, \varepsilon).P=conv(T), ∣T∣=N, diam(P)≤1, ε>0 ⟹ ∃C, ∣C∣≤N⌈1/ε2⌉:P⊆c∈C⋃​B(c,ε).

This is a direct application of the goal to computational geometry's covering problem: how many balls of radius ε\varepsilonε are needed to cover a polytope, and where should they be centered.

Significance

The result itself. The approximate Carathéodory theorem is the prototype of a dimension-free approximation result: whenever a set is bounded, a fixed number of points (depending only on the target accuracy, not the ambient dimension) suffices to approximate any point of its convex hull. This is what makes possible dimension-independent covering-number bounds such as Corollary 0.0.4, which in turn are the starting point for the book's later treatment of entropy, packing and generic chaining (Chapters 4, 7–8). The technique generalizes far beyond Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn: it underlies covering-number bounds for operators between Banach spaces (Carl's original application) and is a recurring device in learning theory for bounding the size of an ε\varepsilonε-net of a hypothesis class.

Formalizing it. Both results are elementary and already fully proved in the literature; no open mathematical content remains. What this mission contributes is a machine-checked, faithful Lean statement of Maurey's construction and its corollary, phrased over Mathlib's existing convex-hull and metric-diameter machinery, so that later missions in this series (concentration inequalities, Johnson–Lindenstrauss, chaining) can build on a verified base case of "probability constructs a deterministic covering," and so that the empirical method itself becomes a reusable, linked component on the platform. The proof of the goal (via the probabilistic argument sketched by the book: interpret a convex combination as a probability distribution, average kkk i.i.d. samples, and bound the variance) is left open for solvers.

Difficulty

The identity that makes the proof work — averaging kkk independent copies of a random vector concentrates around its mean at rate 1/k1/\sqrt{k}1/k​ in mean-square — is a two-line computation once the convex combination is reinterpreted probabilistically. The step that is easy to miss is this reinterpretation itself: nothing in the statement mentions probability, so the "obvious" attack of manipulating the convex-combination weights directly, or trying to construct x1,…,xkx_1,\dots,x_kx1​,…,xk​ by some explicit combinatorial recipe, does not see a path to a bound independent of nnn. The probabilistic argument produces the points non-constructively, via an averaging/existence argument (the expected squared distance is small, so some realization achieves it) rather than an explicit formula — a solver has to introduce a probability space and a random vector that does not appear anywhere in the formal statement to be proved.

Formalization scope

Both results are stated over EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) for an explicit dimension n : ℕ, so ‖·‖ is the Euclidean norm and Mathlib's Metric.diam is used directly for diam⁡(T)=sup⁡{∥s−t∥2}\operatorname{diam}(T) = \sup\{\|s-t\|_2\}diam(T)=sup{∥s−t∥2​}. The convex hull is Mathlib's convexHull ℝ T; by Mathlib's convexHull_eq, this already coincides with the book's own definition of a convex combination of finitely many points of TTT, so no bespoke convex-combination definition is introduced — this mission needs no supporting definitions of its own. In the corollary, "a polytope PPP with NNN vertices" is formalized, following the book's own proof, as P=conv⁡(T)P = \operatorname{conv}(T)P=conv(T) for a finite vertex set TTT with #T=N\#T = N#T=N, rather than via a separate Polytope structure (which Mathlib does not provide and the book's argument does not need). The covering bound N⌈1/ε2⌉N^{\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceil}N⌈1/ε2⌉ is an exponent, not a product with NNN — matching the book's own proof, which counts the NkN^kNk ordered kkk-tuples of vertices with repetition, k:=⌈1/ε2⌉k := \lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceilk:=⌈1/ε2⌉; the typeset "N⌈1/ε2⌉N\lceil 1/\varepsilon^2\rceilN⌈1/ε2⌉" in the corollary statement is the same juxtaposition-as-exponent notation the proof uses for "NkN^kNk" one line earlier.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out explicitly: the goal must hold for every integer k>0k > 0k>0 and every x∈conv⁡(T)x \in \operatorname{conv}(T)x∈conv(T), not merely some convenient choice — e.g. k=1k = 1k=1 together with x∈Tx \in Tx∈T trivially satisfies the inequality but proves nothing about the theorem's actual content, that a fixed, dimension-independent kkk works uniformly over all points of the hull. The formal statement quantifies TTT, then xxx, then kkk, and only then asserts existence of the x1,…,xkx_1,\dots,x_kx1​,…,xk​, exactly in that order.

Classical Carathéodory (Theorem 0.0.1, stated for context in the source but not used by either formalized result's proof) is not drafted here: Mathlib already proves the corresponding statement via affine independence (Caratheodory.eq_pos_convex_span_of_mem_convexHull, Analysis/Convex/Caratheodory.lean), from which the book's "n+1n+1n+1 points" bound follows via AffineIndependent.card_le_finrank_succ. It is not added as a kind: reference milestone because no corresponding theorem is yet published on the Prove2Me platform to point at (checked 2026-09-17: GET /theorems?q=Caratheodory returns only unrelated tropical-convexity results), and re-drafting existing Mathlib content as a new platform theorem would duplicate rather than reuse it.

Selected references

  • R. Vershynin, High-Dimensional Probability: An Introduction with Applications in Data Science, Cambridge University Press, 2018, DOI 10.1017/9781108231596, Appetizer (pp. 1–5).
  • G. Pisier, "Remarques sur un résultat non publié de B. Maurey," Séminaire d'Analyse Fonctionnelle (Maurey–Schwartz), 1980–1981, exposé no. 5. numdam.org/item/SAF_1980-1981____A5_0
  • B. Carl, "Inequalities of Bernstein-Jackson-type and the degree of compactness of operators in Banach spaces," Annales de l'Institut Fourier, 35(3), 1985, 79–118. numdam.org/item/AIF_1985__35_3_79_0
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Bandit AlgorithmsMachine LearningReinforcement Learning·Captain: mikedeng1

Foundations of Reinforcement Learning II: Contextual Bandits and Inverse Gap WeightingTextbook

Motivation

Decision-making problems rarely present the same fixed choice twice. A doctor prescribing a treatment sees each patient's medical history and symptoms before deciding; a website choosing which article to show sees the visitor's profile first. The multi-armed bandit model — where the learner repeatedly picks from a fixed set of arms with no side information — cannot express this: it is blind to the covariates that any real decision-maker actually observes. The contextual bandit model closes this gap by letting the learner see a context before acting, and asks for a decision rule that generalizes across contexts rather than memorizing a policy per context. Foster and Rakhlin's Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making (arXiv:2312.16730v1, Section 3, pp. 38–53) develops this model and its algorithms as the bridge between supervised learning and sequential decision making, en route to general reinforcement learning. Contextual bandits with a learned reward-function class underlie production systems for content recommendation, online advertising, and adaptive clinical trial design (Li et al., A Contextual-Bandit Approach to Personalized News Article Recommendation, 2010, https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0146; Agarwal et al., Making Contextual Decisions with Low Technical Debt, 2016, https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03966).

The algorithmic history in this chapter runs through two distinct principles. The optimism principle (LinUCB, Section 3.2) generalizes the UCB algorithm to contexts under a linear reward model, but the chapter's own Example 3.1 (Section 3.3) shows optimism fails outside such structured classes, incurring regret linear in the size of the context space or the class. Foster and Rakhlin then present two "black-box" alternatives that use any function class FFF through an abstract regression subroutine: the naive ε\varepsilonε-Greedy method (Section 3.4), and the Inverse Gap Weighting (IGW) strategy underlying the SquareCB algorithm (Bietti, Agarwal & Langford, A Contextual Bandit Bake-off, 2018, https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04064; Foster & Rakhlin, Beyond UCB: Optimal and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Regression Oracles, 2020, https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.04926). SquareCB attains a regret rate that both generalizes across contexts (no dependence on the size of the context space) and matches the optimal T\sqrt{T}T​ rate — improving on ε\varepsilonε-Greedy's T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 rate — while remaining agnostic to the internal structure of FFF.

Setting

Over TTT rounds, a decision-maker faces the contextual bandit protocol: at each round ttt, it observes a context xt∈Xx_t \in Xxt​∈X, selects a decision πt\pi_tπt​ from a finite action set Π={1,…,A}\Pi = \{1,\dots,A\}Π={1,…,A}, and observes a reward rt∈Rr_t \in \mathbb{R}rt​∈R. Rewards are generated independently as rt∼M⋆(⋅∣xt,πt)r_t \sim M^\star(\cdot \mid x_t, \pi_t)rt​∼M⋆(⋅∣xt​,πt​) for a fixed, unknown conditional model M⋆M^\starM⋆; write f⋆(x,π):=E[r∣x,π]f^\star(x,\pi) := \mathbb{E}[r \mid x, \pi]f⋆(x,π):=E[r∣x,π] for the mean reward function and π⋆(x):=arg⁡max⁡πf⋆(x,π)\pi^\star(x) := \arg\max_\pi f^\star(x,\pi)π⋆(x):=argmaxπ​f⋆(x,π) for the optimal, context-dependent policy. The context sequence x1,…,xTx_1,\dots,x_Tx1​,…,xT​ is arbitrary — fixed in advance or adversarially chosen — while rewards remain stochastic. Performance is measured by regret against π⋆\pi^\starπ⋆:

Reg:=∑t=1Tf⋆(xt,π⋆(xt))−∑t=1TEπt∼pt[f⋆(xt,πt)],\mathrm{Reg} := \sum_{t=1}^T f^\star(x_t,\pi^\star(x_t)) - \sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t\sim p_t}[f^\star(x_t,\pi_t)],Reg:=t=1∑T​f⋆(xt​,π⋆(xt​))−t=1∑T​Eπt​∼pt​​[f⋆(xt​,πt​)],

where ptp_tpt​ is the learner's (possibly randomized) action distribution at round ttt.

To generalize across contexts, the learner is given a class F⊆{f:X×Π→R}F \subseteq \{f : X\times\Pi \to \mathbb{R}\}F⊆{f:X×Π→R} with f⋆∈Ff^\star \in Ff⋆∈F, and aims for regret scaling with the statistical complexity log⁡∣F∣\log|F|log∣F∣ rather than with ∣X∣|X|∣X∣. Both algorithms in this mission access FFF only through an online regression oracle (Definition 3, p. 47): given the history (x1,π1,r1),…,(xt−1,πt−1,rt−1)(x_1,\pi_1,r_1),\dots,(x_{t-1},\pi_{t-1},r_{t-1})(x1​,π1​,r1​),…,(xt−1​,πt−1​,rt−1​), it returns an estimate f^t:X×Π→R\hat f_t : X\times\Pi\to\mathbb{R}f^​t​:X×Π→R satisfying, with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, ∑t=1TEπt∼pt[(f^t(xt,πt)−f⋆(xt,πt))2]≤EstSq(F,T,δ)\sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb{E}_{\pi_t\sim p_t}[(\hat f_t(x_t,\pi_t)-f^\star(x_t,\pi_t))^2] \le \mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)∑t=1T​Eπt​∼pt​​[(f^​t​(xt​,πt​)−f⋆(xt​,πt​))2]≤EstSq(F,T,δ) — for instance, exponential weights on a finite class FFF achieves EstSq(F,T,δ)=log⁡(∣F∣/δ)\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta) = \log(|F|/\delta)EstSq(F,T,δ)=log(∣F∣/δ). SquareCB (p. 50–51) then samples its action from the Inverse Gap Weighting distribution (Definition 4, p. 50): given a vector of estimated values f^∈RA\hat f \in \mathbb{R}^Af^​∈RA with greedy action πˉ=arg⁡max⁡πf^(π)\bar\pi = \arg\max_\pi \hat f(\pi)πˉ=argmaxπ​f^​(π), and an exploration parameter γ≥0\gamma \ge 0γ≥0, p=IGWγ(f^)p = \mathrm{IGW}_\gamma(\hat f)p=IGWγ​(f^​) is p(π)=1/(λ+2γ(f^(πˉ)−f^(π)))p(\pi) = 1/(\lambda + 2\gamma(\hat f(\bar\pi)-\hat f(\pi)))p(π)=1/(λ+2γ(f^​(πˉ)−f^​(π))) for the unique λ∈[1,A]\lambda \in [1,A]λ∈[1,A] making ppp a probability distribution.

Formalization targets

Milestone — Proposition 9 (IGW estimation-to-regret inequality)

Eπ∼p[f⋆(π⋆)−f⋆(π)]≤Aγ+γ⋅Eπ∼p[(f^(π)−f⋆(π))2],p=IGWγ(f^).\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[f^\star(\pi^\star)-f^\star(\pi)] \le \frac{A}{\gamma} + \gamma\cdot\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[(\hat f(\pi)-f^\star(\pi))^2], \qquad p = \mathrm{IGW}_\gamma(\hat f).Eπ∼p​[f⋆(π⋆)−f⋆(π)]≤γA​+γ⋅Eπ∼p​[(f^​(π)−f⋆(π))2],p=IGWγ​(f^​).

This holds for any f^,f⋆∈RA\hat f, f^\star \in \mathbb{R}^Af^​,f⋆∈RA and any γ>0\gamma>0γ>0, with no reference to FFF or to how f^\hat ff^​ was produced — it is the purely algebraic core the goal theorem invokes at every round.

Goal — Proposition 10 (SquareCB regret bound)

Reg≤2A T EstSq(F,T,δ)\mathrm{Reg} \le 2\sqrt{A\,T\,\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)}Reg≤2ATEstSq(F,T,δ)​

with probability at least 1−δ1-\delta1−δ, for SquareCB run with γ=TA/EstSq(F,T,δ)\gamma = \sqrt{TA/\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)}γ=TA/EstSq(F,T,δ)​, for any context sequence x1,…,xTx_1,\dots,x_Tx1​,…,xT​. This is the weakest stable target level in the chapter's oracle-based development: it is stated for an arbitrary class FFF and oracle, so it survives any future improvement to the oracle's own EstSq\mathrm{EstSq}EstSq bound, unlike a version hard-coded to a specific class or oracle.

Significance

Proposition 10 shows that Inverse Gap Weighting converts any estimation-error guarantee into a regret guarantee with the same statistical rate, with no algorithm-side dependence on the structure of FFF or the size of XXX: the same SquareCB template, driven by a plug-in regression oracle, is minimax optimal whenever the oracle itself is. When FFF is finite, this yields Reg≲ATlog⁡(∣F∣/δ)\mathrm{Reg} \lesssim \sqrt{AT\log(|F|/\delta)}Reg≲ATlog(∣F∣/δ)​, matching the optimal rate for stochastic multi-armed bandits (Section 2) while generalizing across contexts — a guarantee that optimism (Proposition 7) provably cannot deliver outside linear classes (Example 3.1), and that the simpler ε\varepsilonε-Greedy baseline (Proposition 8) only delivers at a slower T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 rate. Foster and Rakhlin describe Proposition 9 itself as being "at the core of the development for the rest of the course": the same IGW mechanism reappears, generalized, in the book's treatment of general decision-making and the Decision-Estimation Coefficient.

Both propositions are proved results, not open questions; this mission's contribution is a machine-checked formalization of their exact statements and hypotheses — the precise OracleGuarantee hypothesis Proposition 10 requires, the exact constant (222, not a bare ≲\lesssim≲) its proof yields at the stated optimal γ\gammaγ, and the universally-quantified form of the IGW inequality (Proposition 9) that makes it reusable independently of any particular oracle or class.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea for exploiting an estimator f^t\hat f_tf^​t​ is a UCB-style optimism approach: build a confidence set around f^t\hat f_tf^​t​ and act greedily on its upper envelope, as in LinUCB (Proposition 7). Example 3.1 shows this fails in general: a class FFF can force the confidence set to remain wide on a fresh action at every new context, driving regret linear in min⁡{∣F∣,∣X∣}\min\{|F|,|X|\}min{∣F∣,∣X∣} — the confidence width in the regret bound does not shrink merely because the oracle's cumulative estimation error is small, since that error is not localized to the specific action the confidence-set approach tries next. Uniform exploration (ε\varepsilonε-Greedy) sidesteps this but wastes exploration budget on actions already known to be far from optimal, which is what caps its rate at T2/3T^{2/3}T2/3 (Proposition 8). Inverse Gap Weighting instead ties the sampling probability itself to the estimated gap from the greedy action, so cheap-to-rule-out actions are down-weighted continuously rather than either fully explored (ε-Greedy) or trusted outright (optimism); the technical content of Proposition 9 is showing this specific reciprocal-gap form gives a bound with no hidden dependence on FFF or XXX, for every pair (f^,f⋆)(\hat f, f^\star)(f^​,f⋆) simultaneously — a guarantee optimism cannot match because its confidence sets are class-dependent by construction.

Formalization scope

Contexts form an arbitrary type X; actions are Fin A for A : ℕ. A finite probability distribution over Fin A is represented directly as p : Fin A → ℝ with ∀ π, 0 ≤ p π and ∑ π, p π = 1, and Eπ∼p[g]\mathbb{E}_{\pi\sim p}[g]Eπ∼p​[g] as the finite sum ∑ π, p π * g π, rather than via Mathlib's PMF (which is ℝ≥0∞-valued) — an equivalent and lighter-weight representation of a distribution on a finite type. The normalizing constant λ\lambdaλ of Definition 4 and the optimal actions π⋆\pi^\starπ⋆, πˉ\bar\piπˉ are each specified by their defining property (existence of λ∈[1,A]\lambda \in [1,A]λ∈[1,A] realizing the IGW formula; ∀π,f(π)≤f(argmax)\forall\pi, f(\pi)\le f(\text{argmax})∀π,f(π)≤f(argmax)) rather than constructed explicitly via an intermediate-value or Finset.argmax argument, avoiding committing to one choice function for a value the book itself leaves implicit. The class FFF enters neither proposition's statement directly: it appears in the source only through the abstract bound EstSq(F,T,δ)\mathrm{EstSq}(F,T,\delta)EstSq(F,T,δ), which is carried as an explicit real-valued parameter and hypothesis (OracleGuarantee) rather than as a literal subset of a function space, since no property of FFF beyond producing this bound is ever used. The probability-(1−δ)(1-\delta)(1−δ) qualifier attached to the online regression oracle's guarantee is likewise the explicit hypothesis OracleGuarantee ... EstSq on a fixed realized run, rather than a statement quantified over an underlying probability space of histories — every subsequent step in both propositions' proofs is deterministic given that this event holds, so this does not weaken either conclusion. A trivializing formalization would fix A=1A=1A=1 (a single ever-optimal action, making both Reg and the IGW inequality vacuous) or take EstSq as an unconstrained free variable with no positivity hypothesis (making γ\gammaγ in Proposition 10 undefined); this mission's statements require 0 < EstSq and leave AAA, TTT, XXX, FFF-via-EstSq fully general.

This mission omits Proposition 7 (LinUCB): its proof rests on an entirely disjoint apparatus (finite linear parameter sets, least-squares confidence sets, the elliptic potential lemma) that neither Proposition 9 nor 10 requires, and Example 3.1 (the failure of optimism) is a worked example rather than a numbered, formalizable claim. It also omits Proposition 8 (ε\varepsilonε-Greedy): the source leaves the optimal ε\varepsilonε unspecified ("choosing ε\varepsilonε appropriately"), and deriving its own optimal value and matching constant independently — rather than reusing the book's own explicit constant, as Rule 7 of this formalization effort requires — was judged too likely to introduce an unfaithful, invented constant within this mission's time budget; both are natural extensions for a follow-up mission or contribution. Reusable infrastructure: the Fin A-indexed finite-distribution convention and the OracleGuarantee/optimal-action-by-property pattern extend directly to any later chapter built on the same online-regression-oracle abstraction.

Selected references

  • Foster, D. J. and Rakhlin, A. Foundations of Reinforcement Learning and Interactive Decision Making. 2023. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.16730
  • Foster, D. J. and Rakhlin, A. Beyond UCB: Optimal and Efficient Contextual Bandits with Regression Oracles. ICML 2020. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.04926
  • Bietti, A., Agarwal, A., and Langford, J. A Contextual Bandit Bake-off. JMLR 2021 (arXiv 2018). https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04064
  • Li, L., Chu, W., Langford, J., and Schapire, R. E. A Contextual-Bandit Approach to Personalized News Article Recommendation. WWW 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0146
  • Agarwal, A. et al. Making Contextual Decisions with Low Technical Debt. 2016. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.03966
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Stochastic Systems·Captain: Shuze Chen

Vector Space Methods III: Recursive EstimationTextbook

Motivation

The final sections of Chapter 4 of Luenberger's Optimization by Vector Space Methods (Wiley, 1969) derive the discrete-time Kalman filter (§4.7 Theorem 1, attributed to Kalman 1960) purely from Hilbert space geometry: the optimal estimate of a linearly evolving random state is an orthogonal projection onto the span of past measurements, and the projection updates recursively as measurements arrive. This derivation — no Gaussian assumptions, no density calculations — is a canonical application of the projection theorem formalized in Mission I and the estimation theory of Mission II.

Setting

Following §4.2 and §4.7 of the source, all random variables have zero mean and finite second moments, and are treated as elements of a Hilbert space of random variables: an abstract real inner product space HHH in which the inner product of two random variables is their correlation, ⟨a,b⟩=E[ab]\langle a, b\rangle = E[ab]⟨a,b⟩=E[ab]. Random nnn-vectors are families Fin n→H\mathrm{Fin}\ n \to HFin n→H; two random variables are uncorrelated iff they are orthogonal in HHH; the covariance matrix of a zero-mean random vector xxx is the Gram matrix ⟨xi,xj⟩\langle x_i, x_j\rangle⟨xi​,xj​⟩. A white process uuu satisfies E[u(k)u(l)⊤]=Q(k) δklE[u(k)u(l)^\top] = Q(k)\,\delta_{kl}E[u(k)u(l)⊤]=Q(k)δkl​.

The dynamic model (§4.7) consists of a state process and measurements

x(k+1)=Φ(k) x(k)+u(k),v(k)=M(k) x(k)+w(k),k=0,1,2,…x(k+1) = \Phi(k)\,x(k) + u(k), \qquad v(k) = M(k)\,x(k) + w(k), \qquad k = 0, 1, 2, \dotsx(k+1)=Φ(k)x(k)+u(k),v(k)=M(k)x(k)+w(k),k=0,1,2,…

with known matrices Φ(k)∈Rn×n\Phi(k) \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}Φ(k)∈Rn×n, M(k)∈Rm×nM(k) \in \mathbb{R}^{m\times n}M(k)∈Rm×n, white noises u,wu, wu,w with covariances Q(k)Q(k)Q(k), R(k)R(k)R(k) (R(k)R(k)R(k) positive definite), mutually uncorrelated and uncorrelated with the initial state x(0)x(0)x(0). The estimate x^(k+1∣k)\hat x(k+1 \mid k)x^(k+1∣k) is the projection of each component of x(k+1)x(k+1)x(k+1) onto the subspace spanned by the components of v(0),…,v(k)v(0), \dots, v(k)v(0),…,v(k).

Formalization targets

The goal is §4.7 Theorem 1: the estimates generated by the recursion

x^(k+1∣k)=Φ(k)P(k)M⊤(k)[M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k)]−1(v(k)−M(k)x^(k∣k−1))+Φ(k) x^(k∣k−1)\hat x(k+1 \mid k) = \Phi(k) P(k) M^\top(k)\big[M(k)P(k)M^\top(k) + R(k)\big]^{-1}\big(v(k) - M(k)\hat x(k \mid k-1)\big) + \Phi(k)\, \hat x(k \mid k-1)x^(k+1∣k)=Φ(k)P(k)M⊤(k)[M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k)]−1(v(k)−M(k)x^(k∣k−1))+Φ(k)x^(k∣k−1) P(k+1)=Φ(k)P(k){I−M⊤(k)[M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k)]−1M(k)P(k)}Φ⊤(k)+Q(k),P(k+1) = \Phi(k) P(k)\big\{I - M^\top(k)[M(k)P(k)M^\top(k) + R(k)]^{-1} M(k) P(k)\big\}\Phi^\top(k) + Q(k),P(k+1)=Φ(k)P(k){I−M⊤(k)[M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k)]−1M(k)P(k)}Φ⊤(k)+Q(k),

started from x^(0∣−1)=0\hat x(0 \mid -1) = 0x^(0∣−1)=0 and P(0)=cov⁡x(0)P(0) = \operatorname{cov} x(0)P(0)=covx(0), are the linear minimum-variance estimates: each x^(k∣k−1)\hat x(k \mid k-1)x^(k∣k−1) lies in the span of past measurement components, its error is orthogonal to all past measurements, and its error covariance is P(k)P(k)P(k).

Milestones: orthogonality of the innovation v(k)−M(k)x^(k∣k−1)v(k) - M(k)\hat x(k\mid k-1)v(k)−M(k)x^(k∣k−1) to the past-data subspace, and the single-step updating formula (§4.6 Example 1) — given a prior projection with error covariance RRR and new data y=Wβ+εy = W\beta + \varepsilony=Wβ+ε, the updated projection is β^+RW⊤(WRW⊤+Q)−1(y−Wβ^)\hat\beta + RW^\top(WRW^\top + Q)^{-1}(y - W\hat\beta)β^​+RW⊤(WRW⊤+Q)−1(y−Wβ^​) with error covariance R−RW⊤(WRW⊤+Q)−1WRR - RW^\top(WRW^\top+Q)^{-1}WRR−RW⊤(WRW⊤+Q)−1WR.

Significance

The Kalman filter is among the most used algorithms in engineering — navigation, tracking, control, time-series analysis — and this mission gives it a machine-checked correctness statement at the natural level of generality: linear minimum-variance optimality over arbitrary zero-mean second-order processes, with no Gaussian hypothesis. Mathlib currently has no Kalman filter and no linear filtering theory. The abstract Hilbert-space formulation also makes the development directly reusable: the update milestone is a general two-stage projection lemma independent of the dynamic model.

Difficulty

The recursion couples two invariants that must be established simultaneously by induction: the geometric one (the error is orthogonal to the growing measurement subspace, and the estimate lies in it) and the algebraic one (the error Gram matrix equals P(k)P(k)P(k)). Whiteness enters precisely through the index inequalities — u(k)u(k)u(k) and w(k)w(k)w(k) are orthogonal to everything generated by x(0),u(0..k−1),w(0..k−1)x(0), u(0..k{-}1), w(0..k{-}1)x(0),u(0..k−1),w(0..k−1) — and an off-by-one in these ranges silently breaks the induction. Invertibility of M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k)M(k)P(k)M^\top(k) + R(k)M(k)P(k)M⊤(k)+R(k) must be derived, not assumed: P(k)P(k)P(k) is positive semidefinite as a Gram matrix and R(k)R(k)R(k) is positive definite. The naive approach of expanding all projections over a concrete probability space adds measure-theoretic overhead the abstract formulation avoids entirely.

Formalization scope

The Hilbert space of random variables is an abstract H : Type with [NormedAddCommGroup H] [InnerProductSpace ℝ H]; zero means are implicit in this representation (§4.7 assumes all variables zero-mean), so expectations never appear — only inner products. Matrix-vector actions on random vectors are written componentwise as ∑ j, A i j • x j. Processes are indexed by ℕ, with x̂(0 | -1) rendered as xh 0 = 0 and covariances as explicit Gram identities. Whiteness and uncorrelatedness are hypotheses on inner products with if k = l then _ else 0. The span of past data at time kkk is Submodule.span ℝ {a | ∃ l < k, ∃ j, a = v l j}. The recursion defining xh and P is supplied as hypotheses, so the goal asserts exactly the optimality and covariance claims of the source theorem. Statements deliberately avoid Mathlib's orthogonalProjection; the projection property is asserted by membership plus orthogonality, which characterizes it uniquely.

Selected references

  • David G. Luenberger, Optimization by Vector Space Methods, John Wiley & Sons, 1969. §4.6–4.7, pp. 90–97. ISBN 0-471-55359-X.
  • R. E. Kalman, A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems, J. Basic Eng. 82 (1960), 35–45. https://doi.org/10.1115/1.3662552
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Sequential Multi-class Diagnosis: Under Exponential Tilting, Every Reachable Posterior Belief Is a Closed-Form Function of an r-Dimensional Diagnostic Statistic, r = rank(B)Research Paper

Motivation

In sequential multi-class diagnosis, a decision maker observes a system repeatedly, then chooses when to stop and which hidden class to report. Each new observation can improve the diagnosis, but waiting has a cost. A direct dynamic program uses the vector of posterior class probabilities as its state. With N+1N+1N+1 possible classes, that state lies in an NNN-dimensional probability simplex. Wang's model asks when the observed sequence can instead be summarized by fewer coordinates, so that the same posterior can be recovered without retaining a full belief vector as an independent state Wang, §2–§3.

The paper considers class distributions related by exponential tilting. This relationship appears in common one-dimensional distribution families, including the normal, binomial, Poisson, and gamma examples collected in its Table 1 Wang, p. 8. The result targeted here is the belief reconstruction identity of Theorem 1. Later parts of the paper use the reduced statistic in optimality equations and study stopping regions; those results are outside this mission Wang, pp. 12–18.

Setting

The hidden class is j∈{0,…,N}j\in\{0,\ldots,N\}j∈{0,…,N}. Before observing data, the decision maker has a prior belief θ=(θ0,…,θN)\theta=(\theta_0,\ldots,\theta_N)θ=(θ0​,…,θN​): every component is nonnegative and their sum is one. Conditional on class jjj, observations y1,…,yty_1,\ldots,y_ty1​,…,yt​ are independent and have the same density fjf_jfj​ on the observation space Y\mathcal YY. Class 000 supplies a baseline density f0f_0f0​. The one-step Bayesian operator B\mathcal BB multiplies each current class weight by that class's likelihood at the new observation and divides by the sum of all weighted likelihoods. Starting at Π0=θ\Pi_0=\thetaΠ0​=θ, the belief Πt\Pi_tΠt​ is obtained by applying B\mathcal BB once for each observation in arrival order Wang, pp. 6–7.

In the exponential tilting model, a transformed observation h(y)∈Rph(y)\in\mathbb R^ph(y)∈Rp and a parameter βj∈Rp\beta_j\in\mathbb R^pβj​∈Rp describe each nonbaseline density:

fj(y)=f0(y)exp⁡{βj0+βjTh(y)},βj0=−log⁡∫Yexp⁡{βjTh(y)}f0(y) dy.f_j(y)=f_0(y)\exp\{\beta_{j0}+\beta_j^{\mathsf T}h(y)\},\qquad \beta_{j0}=-\log\int_{\mathcal Y}\exp\{\beta_j^{\mathsf T}h(y)\}f_0(y)\,dy.fj​(y)=f0​(y)exp{βj0​+βjT​h(y)},βj0​=−log∫Y​exp{βjT​h(y)}f0​(y)dy.

Here j=1,…,Nj=1,\ldots,Nj=1,…,N. Place the βjT\beta_j^{\mathsf T}βjT​ in the rows of the diagnostic parameter matrix B\mathbb BB. Its rank decomposition is B=RP\mathbb B=\mathbb R\mathbb PB=RP, where R\mathbb RR has NNN rows and rrr linearly independent columns, while P\mathbb PP has rrr linearly independent rows and ppp columns. Thus r=rank⁡(B)r=\operatorname{rank}(\mathbb B)r=rank(B). The paper calls R\mathbb RR the reconstruction matrix and P\mathbb PP the projection matrix Wang, Definition 1, p. 8.

Formalization targets

Theorem 1: posterior reconstruction

For t≥1t\ge1t≥1, define the diagnostic statistic xt=P(∑m=1th(ym))/t∈Rrx_t=\mathbb P\big(\sum_{m=1}^t h(y_m)\big)/t\in\mathbb R^rxt​=P(∑m=1t​h(ym​))/t∈Rr. For classes j=1,…,Nj=1,\ldots,Nj=1,…,N, the target identity is

Πt(y1,…,yt,θ)j=Tjt(xt,θ)=θjexp⁡{t(βj0+ejRxt)}θ0+∑i=1Nθiexp⁡{t(βi0+eiRxt)}.\Pi_t(y_1,\ldots,y_t,\theta)_j =\mathcal T_j^t(x_t,\theta) =\frac{\theta_j\exp\{t(\beta_{j0}+e_j\mathbb R x_t)\}} {\theta_0+\sum_{i=1}^{N}\theta_i\exp\{t(\beta_{i0}+e_i\mathbb R x_t)\}}.Πt​(y1​,…,yt​,θ)j​=Tjt​(xt​,θ)=θ0​+∑i=1N​θi​exp{t(βi0​+ei​Rxt​)}θj​exp{t(βj0​+ej​Rxt​)}​.

The baseline coordinate is T0t=1−∑j=1NTjt\mathcal T_0^t=1-\sum_{j=1}^{N}\mathcal T_j^tT0t​=1−∑j=1N​Tjt​. The normalizer appearing in Tt\mathcal T^tTt is evaluated from the row eiRPe_i\mathbb R\mathbb Pei​RP, as in equation (3), and the theorem identifies it with the model normalizer through B=RP\mathbb B=\mathbb R\mathbb PB=RP. The target also identifies the set of posteriors reachable after exactly ttt observations with Tt(Ωt,θ)\mathcal T^t(\Omega_t,\theta)Tt(Ωt​,θ), where Ωt\Omega_tΩt​ is the set of attainable diagnostic statistics. These statements give a precise reading of the paper's claim that reachable beliefs admit an rrr-coordinate representation Wang, Theorem 1, p. 9; Definition 2, p. 10.

The goal additionally states that the map x↦Tt(x,θ)x\mapsto\mathcal T^t(x,\theta)x↦Tt(x,θ) is injective on Rr\mathbb R^rRr when every prior component is positive. This is an explicit, qualified reading of the paper's phrase that the dimensionality is equal to rrr. For discrete observations, the reachable set Ωt\Omega_tΩt​ can be finite, so the phrase cannot always mean its geometric dimension is literally rrr. The five milestones follow the source's Bayes operator and the displayed identities in its proof of Theorem 1 Wang, p. ec1.

Significance

The formula determines every posterior component from rrr real coordinates, the prior, and the observation count. When rrr is smaller than NNN, this supplies the representation used by the paper to reformulate a diagnosis problem in a smaller state space. The paper's examples show cases with one or two diagnostic coordinates; Proposition 1 then rewrites its optimality equations using those coordinates Wang, pp. 9–12. This mission formalizes the reconstruction claim itself, including the exact reachable-set statement, while leaving the decision costs and Bellman equations for later work.

A completed development would provide reusable definitions for a finite-class Bayes update and its sequential iterate, an exponential-tilting model over densities, and a rank-factorized reconstruction map. The result is proved in the cited paper. The Lean declarations in this proposal compile as statements, but their sorry bodies are open proof obligations; this mission seeks machine-checked proofs of them.

Difficulty

The main verification burden is connecting several expressions for the same posterior without quietly replacing one definition by another. A sequential posterior is an iterated one-step update; the paper's closed form is a normalized product of likelihoods; and equation (3) is an exponential expression in a projected sum of transformed observations. Each form has its own denominator, so the positivity conditions that make division meaningful must be stated. The rank claim also requires full-rank assumptions on both factors of B\mathbb BB. For a prior with zero mass on a class, the posterior formula remains meaningful, but the injectivity assertion needs a separate full-support condition.

Formalization scope

Lean represents classes by Fin (N + 1), with class zero as the baseline. Row i : Fin N of the diagnostic matrix is class i.succ. Observations form a List in arrival order; ttt is its length, and the posterior is the list fold of B\mathcal BB. The observation space is a measurable type with a reference measure μ\muμ, covering continuous and discrete densities with one notation. This generalizes the paper's Y⊆R\mathcal Y\subseteq\mathbb RY⊆R; no order or arithmetic operation on observations is used by Theorem 1. Integrals are real-valued, and N=0N=0N=0 and p=0p=0p=0 are permitted. The reconstruction identity is stated for t≥1t\ge1t≥1, matching the paper and avoiding the division by zero in xtx_txt​.

The standing assumptions say that every fjf_jfj​ is measurable, f0f_0f0​ is positive at every admitted observation, its integral is one, and each tilted baseline density is integrable. These make the normalizers and the Bayesian denominators meaningful. Positivity, normalization, and integrability are explicit refinements of the paper's use of densities and normalizing constants. The prior lies in the standard simplex; θ0\theta_0θ0​ need not be positive for reconstruction. The additional full-support condition appears only in the injectivity clause. The paper's conditional independence assumption is represented by multiplying class likelihoods along the list.

The generic Bayesian update and its reachable set are separate from the paper-specific model. In particular, the posterior is an actual fold of the one-step update, and the class densities are given data constrained by exponential tilting. Defining the posterior directly as equation (3), or defining the densities to make the tilting identity true by construction, would erase the result being formalized. A complete proof needs finite-sum identities, exponential and logarithm facts, integrability facts, matrix rank and row identities, and the algebra of probability normalization. The generic Bayes definitions and list-level likelihood identity are reusable beyond this paper; contributions that establish those interfaces or close any source-derived milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Wang, Optimal Sequential Multi-class Diagnosis, Operations Research 70(5), 2022; arXiv:1506.08915v4. The mission cites the v4 preprint's pages and indices.
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Markov ChainProbabilityReinforcement Learning+1·Captain: Wenqian Xing

Estimation of Treatment Effects Under Nonstationarity via the Truncated Policy Gradient EstimatorResearch Paper

Why short-horizon outcome windows

Randomized experiments (A/B tests) on ride-sharing marketplaces, recommendation systems and digital-health services assign each arriving user to treatment or control. The assignment changes the system state seen by later users, so observations are not independent: this is temporal interference, or carryover. The difference-in-means estimator ignores it, and in Markovian models its bias can be as large as the treatment effect itself (Farias, Li, Peng, Zheng 2022; Hu, Wager 2022). Corrections based on off-policy evaluation or on differences of QQQ-values assume a stationary environment, while real systems have time-varying dynamics and the experimenter observes a single trajectory.

Johari, Peng and Xing propose the truncated policy gradient (TPG) estimator: each instantaneous outcome in the difference-in-means estimator is replaced by the sum of the next k+1k+1k+1 outcomes. The paper shows that this estimates, without bias, the derivative of a truncated policy value, and derives bias and variance bounds, a central limit theorem and a consistent variance estimator in nonstationary Markovian environments. This mission formalizes those statements.

Setting

Time is t=0,1,…,T−1t=0,1,\dots,T-1t=0,1,…,T−1 (the paper's time t+1t+1t+1). The state space SSS is finite and the action Zt∈{0,1}Z_t\in\{0,1\}Zt​∈{0,1} is control or treatment. For each time ttt and action zzz there is a transition matrix PztP_z^tPzt​ with P(Xt+1=x′∣Xt=x,Zt=z)=Pzt(x,x′)\mathbb P(X_{t+1}=x'\mid X_t=x,Z_t=z)=P_z^t(x,x')P(Xt+1​=x′∣Xt​=x,Zt​=z)=Pzt​(x,x′); the matrices may change arbitrarily with ttt, which is the nonstationarity. The initial state X0X_0X0​ has distribution ρ\rhoρ. The reward YtY_tYt​ is drawn from a distribution R(⋅∣Xt,Zt)R(\cdot\mid X_t,Z_t)R(⋅∣Xt​,Zt​) on R\mathbb RR, independently of everything else given (Xt,Zt)(X_t,Z_t)(Xt​,Zt​), and R([−M,M]∣x,z)=1R([-M,M]\mid x,z)=1R([−M,M]∣x,z)=1 for all x,zx,zx,z. Write r(x,z)=∫y R(dy∣x,z)r(x,z)=\int y\,R(dy\mid x,z)r(x,z)=∫yR(dy∣x,z).

The policy πθ\pi_\thetaπθ​ assigns treatment with probability θ\thetaθ at every time, independently of everything else. π1\pi_1π1​ is all-treatment, π0\pi_0π0​ is all-control, and the experiment runs π1/2\pi_{1/2}π1/2​. Write Pθt=θP1t+(1−θ)P0tP_\theta^t=\theta P_1^t+(1-\theta)P_0^tPθt​=θP1t​+(1−θ)P0t​ and Eθ\mathbb E_\thetaEθ​ for expectation under πθ\pi_\thetaπθ​. The value function and the global average treatment effect (GATE) are

J(θ)=1T∑t=0T−1Eθ[Yt],τ=J(1)−J(0).J(\theta)=\frac1T\sum_{t=0}^{T-1}\mathbb E_\theta[Y_t],\qquad \tau=J(1)-J(0).J(θ)=T1​t=0∑T−1​Eθ​[Yt​],τ=J(1)−J(0).

The TPG estimator with truncation size kkk is

τ^k=1T∑u=0T−1(1{Zu=1}1/2−1{Zu=0}1/2)∑t=umin⁡(u+k, T−1)Yt,\widehat\tau_k=\frac1T\sum_{u=0}^{T-1}\Bigl(\frac{\mathbf 1\{Z_u=1\}}{1/2}-\frac{\mathbf 1\{Z_u=0\}}{1/2}\Bigr)\sum_{t=u}^{\min(u+k,\,T-1)}Y_t ,τk​=T1​u=0∑T−1​(1/21{Zu​=1}​−1/21{Zu​=0}​)t=u∑min(u+k,T−1)​Yt​,

so τ^0\widehat\tau_0τ0​ is the difference-in-means estimator.

Two quantities control the bounds. The mixing assumption (Assumption 1) asks for γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) with ∥f′Pzt−fPzt∥TV≤γ ∥f′−f∥TV\|f'P_z^t-fP_z^t\|_{\mathrm{TV}}\le\gamma\,\|f'-f\|_{\mathrm{TV}}∥f′Pzt​−fPzt​∥TV​≤γ∥f′−f∥TV​ for all t<Tt<Tt<T, all zzz and all probability vectors f,f′f,f'f,f′ on SSS, where ∥f−f′∥TV=12∥f−f′∥1\|f-f'\|_{\mathrm{TV}}=\tfrac12\|f-f'\|_1∥f−f′∥TV​=21​∥f−f′∥1​. The kernel deviation is δ=max⁡t<Tmax⁡x∥P1t(x,⋅)−P0t(x,⋅)∥TV\delta=\max_{t<T}\max_{x}\|P_1^t(x,\cdot)-P_0^t(x,\cdot)\|_{\mathrm{TV}}δ=maxt<T​maxx​∥P1t​(x,⋅)−P0t​(x,⋅)∥TV​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1, bias and variance of the TPG estimator

There are absolute constants C1,C2>0C_1,C_2>0C1​,C2​>0 such that for every environment, every T≥1T\ge1T≥1, every 0≤k≤T0\le k\le T0≤k≤T and every γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1) and MMM as above,

∣E1/2[τ^k]−τ∣≤C1(1−γk(1−γ)2 δ2M+γk1−γ δM),Var⁡1/2(τ^k)≤C2((k+1)2M2T+γ (k+1)M2T(1−γ)).\bigl|\mathbb E_{1/2}[\widehat\tau_k]-\tau\bigr|\le C_1\Bigl(\frac{1-\gamma^k}{(1-\gamma)^2}\,\delta^2M+\frac{\gamma^k}{1-\gamma}\,\delta M\Bigr),\qquad \operatorname{Var}_{1/2}(\widehat\tau_k)\le C_2\Bigl(\frac{(k+1)^2M^2}{T}+\frac{\gamma\,(k+1)M^2}{T(1-\gamma)}\Bigr).​E1/2​[τk​]−τ​≤C1​((1−γ)21−γk​δ2M+1−γγk​δM),Var1/2​(τk​)≤C2​(T(k+1)2M2​+T(1−γ)γ(k+1)M2​).

The constants are left unspecified, as in the paper's O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) statement, so an improvement of the constants does not invalidate the goal.

Explicit constants: Propositions 5 and 6

For data collected under πθ\pi_\thetaπθ​ with θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1), the paper gives both bounds with explicit constants, for the TPG estimator and for a reward-corrected variant. At θ=1/2\theta=1/2θ=1/2, Proposition 5 reads

∣E[τ^k]−τ∣≤2δMγk1−γ+2δ2M Ψk(γ),Var⁡(τ^k)≤4M2(k+1)T(2k+3+4γ1−γ),\bigl|\mathbb E[\widehat\tau_k]-\tau\bigr|\le\frac{2\delta M\gamma^k}{1-\gamma}+2\delta^2M\,\Psi_k(\gamma),\qquad \operatorname{Var}(\widehat\tau_k)\le\frac{4M^2(k+1)}{T}\Bigl(2k+3+\frac{4\gamma}{1-\gamma}\Bigr),​E[τk​]−τ​≤1−γ2δMγk​+2δ2MΨk​(γ),Var(τk​)≤T4M2(k+1)​(2k+3+1−γ4γ​),

with Ψk(γ)=∑j=0k−2(j+1)γj\Psi_k(\gamma)=\sum_{j=0}^{k-2}(j+1)\gamma^jΨk​(γ)=∑j=0k−2​(j+1)γj.

Policy-gradient identities: Propositions 1–4

JJJ and its truncated analogue JkJ_kJk​ are differentiable at 1/21/21/2, with derivative equal to the horizon average of differences of (kkk-truncated) QQQ-values, and Eθ[τ^θ,kTPG]\mathbb E_\theta[\widehat\tau^{\mathrm{TPG}}_{\theta,k}]Eθ​[τθ,kTPG​] equals the corresponding derivative for every θ∈(0,1)\theta\in(0,1)θ∈(0,1). Without the mixing assumption, the untruncated estimator satisfies ∣E[τ^T]−τ∣≤C T2δ2M|\mathbb E[\widehat\tau_T]-\tau|\le C\,T^2\delta^2M∣E[τT​]−τ∣≤CT2δ2M and Var⁡(τ^T)≤2M2(T+1)\operatorname{Var}(\widehat\tau_T)\le2M^2(T+1)Var(τT​)≤2M2(T+1).

Asymptotics: Theorem 2, Lemmas 1–5 and Corollary 1

For fixed kkk, under mixing at all times, a positive limit σk2\sigma_k^2σk2​ of the normalized variance (Assumption 2) and a Cesàro mean-stability condition (Assumption 3),

T (τ^k−E[τ^k])⇒N(0,σk2),Ω^T→pσk2,\sqrt T\,\bigl(\widehat\tau_k-\mathbb E[\widehat\tau_k]\bigr)\Rightarrow\mathcal N(0,\sigma_k^2),\qquad \widehat\Omega_T\xrightarrow{p}\sigma_k^2,T​(τk​−E[τk​])⇒N(0,σk2​),ΩT​p​σk2​,

where Ω^T\widehat\Omega_TΩT​ is a Newey–West estimator with bandwidth LT→∞L_T\to\inftyLT​→∞, LT=O(T1/3)L_T=O(T^{1/3})LT​=O(T1/3). The supporting statements are a covariance inequality under strong mixing, the bound α(h)≤γh−1\alpha(h)\le\gamma^{h-1}α(h)≤γh−1 on the mixing coefficients of the experimental process and its consequence for the summands of the estimator, the central limit theorem alone, and consistency of the ideal and of the feasible variance estimators.

What the results give

Theorem 1 separates two error sources: a term of second order in δ\deltaδ that does not grow with TTT, and a term that decays geometrically in kkk. Together with Proposition 2 it shows what truncation buys: a variance bound of order (k+1)2/T(k+1)^2/T(k+1)2/T instead of order TTT, at the price of a bias term of order γk\gamma^kγk. Theorem 2 supplies standard errors for the estimator from a single nonstationary trajectory.

All results of the paper are proved on paper; none has a machine-checked proof. The work of this mission is the formal proofs of the stated results. The definition layer (a finite-state nonstationary Markov decision process with real rewards, its trajectory law under time-varying randomization, total-variation contraction, strong-mixing windows, a Newey–West estimator) can be reused for other results on experiments with Markovian interference.

Where the difficulty lies

The first idea is to bound ∣J′(1/2)−(J(1)−J(0))∣|J'(1/2)-(J(1)-J(0))|∣J′(1/2)−(J(1)−J(0))∣ by the second derivative of JJJ on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Every pair of times contributes to that second derivative, so this route gives the T2δ2MT^2\delta^2MT2δ2M of Proposition 2 and nothing uniform in the horizon. Theorem 1 is uniform in TTT, and its bound has no term of first order in δ\deltaδ beyond the truncation term; Proposition 5 shows that such a term is present at every allocation θ≠1/2\theta\ne1/2θ=1/2. Formal proofs have to handle ordered products of time-varying stochastic matrices and signed measures of total mass zero, with a contraction that is assumed one step at a time.

The variance bound and Theorem 2 concern a dependent, non-identically distributed sequence observed once. Mathlib has no central limit theorem for nonhomogeneous Markov chains and no covariance inequality for strongly mixing sequences; the paper relies on Arlotto and Steele (2016) for the former and on an inequality from Doukhan (1994) for the latter.

Formalization scope

TPG.Env S packages (P,ρ,R)(P,\rho,R)(P,ρ,R) for a finite type S. Kernels are real matrices with nonnegative entries and rows summing to one, indexed by all t∈Nt\in\mathbb Nt∈N; a statement with horizon TTT uses only the times below TTT. A trajectory is a function Fin T → S × Bool × ℝ, and Env.trajLaw is its law for an arbitrary sequence of treatment probabilities, built as a finite mixture over state and action paths of product reward laws. JJJ, τ\tauτ, JkJ_kJk​ and the QQQ-values are defined from this law, and expectations given {Zu=z}\{Z_u=z\}{Zu​=z} are taken under the conditional measure. Rewards are bounded through the hypothesis E.RewardBound M; the standing assumptions of the paper enter each theorem as hypotheses, and S carries the discrete measurable structure.

Statements require T≥1T\ge1T≥1 and 0≤k≤T0\le k\le T0≤k≤T, as in the paper. Asymptotic statements compute the law of each statistic under the horizon-TTT measure: convergence in distribution is tested against bounded continuous functions, and convergence in probability is stated for each ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. The limit σk2\sigma_k^2σk2​ is a parameter constrained by Assumption 2. For θ∉[0,1]\theta\notin[0,1]θ∈/[0,1] the law of πθ\pi_\thetaπθ​ is not a probability law and no statement depends on it. The hypotheses are satisfiable for every TTT, kkk and γ\gammaγ: an environment with one state and a nonzero constant reward satisfies all of them, including Assumptions 2 and 3, so no statement is vacuous.

Not included: Definition 1 and Lemma 6 of the paper (Dobrushin coefficients and the Arlotto–Steele theorem on general Borel state spaces), the stationary difference-in-QQQ discussion of Appendix C, the constant-reward example showing that the variance order is attained, and the numerical studies. Formal statements of those, and auxiliary lemmas about Env.trajLaw, ordered matrix products and total-variation contraction, are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • R. Johari, T. Peng, W. Xing, Estimation of Treatment Effects Under Nonstationarity via the Truncated Policy Gradient Estimator, arXiv preprint, 2025–2026. https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.05308
  • V. F. Farias, A. A. Li, T. Peng, A. Zheng, Markovian Interference in Experiments, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 35, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.02371
  • Y. Hu, S. Wager, Switchback Experiments under Geometric Mixing, arXiv preprint, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00197
  • A. Arlotto, J. M. Steele, A Central Limit Theorem for Temporally Nonhomogeneous Markov Chains with Applications to Dynamic Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 41(4), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2016.0784
  • P. Doukhan, Mixing: Properties and Examples, Lecture Notes in Statistics 85, Springer, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2642-0
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Probability·Captain: burkh4rt

Discriminative Kalman Filter asymptoticsResearch Paper

Motivation

Bayesian filtering estimates an unobserved state from measurements arriving over time. A filter combines what the state dynamics predict with what the newest observation says. In neural decoding, for example, the state may describe an intended movement while the observation contains activity from many recorded neurons. The observation can have many more coordinates than the state and need not follow a linear Gaussian observation model.

The Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF) uses a Gaussian approximation to the state conditional on the newest observation. It combines that approximation with a Gaussian state transition and a correction for the stationary state distribution. The resulting recursion retains a mean vector and covariance matrix. Burkhart et al. developed this construction and proved an asymptotic justification in Theorem 2 of Appendix B.

The historical starting point is the linear Gaussian filter of Kalman (1960). The 2020 DKF paper changes how observation information enters the update and establishes a corresponding approximation theorem. The present mission concerns formal verification of that published theorem.

Setting

The state space is Rd\mathbb R^dRd for a positive finite dimension ddd. Write ηd(z;m,C)\eta_d(z;m,C)ηd​(z;m,C) for the ordinary multivariate Gaussian density with mean mmm and symmetric positive-definite covariance CCC. Densities and their L1L^1L1 distances are with respect to Lebesgue measure.

The state model has a matrix AAA and positive-definite covariance matrices Γ,S\Gamma,SΓ,S satisfying

S=ASA⊤+Γ.S=ASA^\top+\Gamma.S=ASA⊤+Γ.

Its stationary density and transition density are

p(z)=ηd(z;0,S),τ(y,z)=ηd(z;Ay,Γ).p(z)=\eta_d(z;0,S),\qquad \tau(y,z)=\eta_d(z;Ay,\Gamma).p(z)=ηd​(z;0,S),τ(y,z)=ηd​(z;Ay,Γ).

For an integrable density sss, prediction gives

(τs)(z)=∫τ(y,z)s(y) dy.(\tau s)(z)=\int\tau(y,z)s(y)\,dy.(τs)(z)=∫τ(y,z)s(y)dy.

The discriminative update combines a previous filtering density sss with a density uuu for the state given the current observation:

u τs/p∥u τs/p∥1.\frac{u\,\tau s/p}{\|u\,\tau s/p\|_1}.∥uτs/p∥1​uτs/p​.

This expression is a probability density when its nonnegative weight has a finite, strictly positive integral. Dividing by ppp is part of the standard DKF under consideration.

For Gaussian inputs with parameters (a,V)(a,V)(a,V) and (b,U)(b,U)(b,U), define

G=AVA⊤+Γ,T=(U−1+G−1−S−1)−1,G=AVA^\top+\Gamma,\qquad T=(U^{-1}+G^{-1}-S^{-1})^{-1},G=AVA⊤+Γ,T=(U−1+G−1−S−1)−1, c=T(U−1b+G−1Aa).c=T(U^{-1}b+G^{-1}Aa).c=T(U−1b+G−1Aa).

The DKF step returns mean ccc and covariance TTT when the precision is invertible and the covariance is positive definite. The recursive filter starts from mean zero and covariance SSS, using the current observation's functions fff and QQQ as the Gaussian input mean and covariance. These are the updates in equation (2.7) of the paper.

Formalization targets

Fix sequences of probability densities sn,uns_n,u_nsn​,un​, indexed by positive integers, whose exact normalized updates

pn=unτsn/p∥unτsn/p∥1p_n=\frac{u_n\tau s_n/p}{\|u_n\tau s_n/p\|_1}pn​=∥un​τsn​/p∥1​un​τsn​/p​

are well defined for every index. Fix Gaussian density sequences sn′,un′s'_n,u'_nsn′​,un′​, a point bbb, and a probability measure PPP. The five assumptions are

A1:sn⇒P,A2:∥sn−sn′∥1⟶0,A3:un⇒δb,A4:∥un−un′∥1⟶0,A5:pn⇒δb.\begin{aligned} \mathrm{A1}:&\quad s_n\Rightarrow P,\\ \mathrm{A2}:&\quad \|s_n-s'_n\|_1\longrightarrow0,\\ \mathrm{A3}:&\quad u_n\Rightarrow\delta_b,\\ \mathrm{A4}:&\quad \|u_n-u'_n\|_1\longrightarrow0,\\ \mathrm{A5}:&\quad p_n\Rightarrow\delta_b. \end{aligned}A1:A2:A3:A4:A5:​sn​⇒P,∥sn​−sn′​∥1​⟶0,un​⇒δb​,∥un​−un′​∥1​⟶0,pn​⇒δb​.​

Here ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ denotes weak convergence, characterized by convergence of expectations of every bounded continuous real function; δb\delta_bδb​ is the unit point mass at bbb. The measure PPP need not have a density and may be degenerate.

The main goal is the complete conjunction of Theorem 2's conclusions, with separate milestones for each:

  • C1: sn′⇒Ps'_n\Rightarrow Psn′​⇒P.
  • C2: un′⇒δbu'_n\Rightarrow\delta_bun′​⇒δb​.
  • C3: the specific update
pn′=un′τsn′/p∥un′τsn′/p∥1p'_n=\frac{u'_n\tau s'_n/p}{\|u'_n\tau s'_n/p\|_1}pn′​=∥un′​τsn′​/p∥1​un′​τsn′​/p​

is a well-defined Gaussian density for all sufficiently large nnn.

  • C4: pn′⇒δbp'_n\Rightarrow\delta_bpn′​⇒δb​.
  • C5: ∥pn−pn′∥1⟶0\|p_n-p'_n\|_1\longrightarrow0∥pn​−pn′​∥1​⟶0.

A sixth milestone is Lemma 1 (DKF equation): the normalized Gaussian-input update has the explicit mean and covariance above whenever valid, and the two input weak limits imply its eventual validity and convergence to δb\delta_bδb​. It includes both the exact equation and the asymptotic assertion from the source.

Significance

In addition to neurodecoding with intracortical brain-computer interfaces, the DKF has also found applications in optimization and sequential data augmentation (see references). The original study was successfully reproduced by Casco-Rodriguez, et al. in ReScience C.

Difficulty

The inverse stationary density can grow in the tails, so small L1L^1L1 errors in the input densities do not immediately control the error after division and renormalization. Normalizing constants must remain finite and nonzero. The candidate Gaussian covariance must also become positive definite as a conclusion of the assumptions, rather than through an extra validity assumption imposed at every index.

There is a second distinction between convergence to a point mass and approximation in L1L^1L1. Two sequences may concentrate at the same point while retaining different shapes at shrinking scales. The C5 target therefore requires the full approximation argument, beyond the weak-convergence conclusions.

Formalization scope

Lean represents states as Fin d → ℝ and covariance matrices as real square matrices. The Gaussian density is the standard determinant-and-quadratic-form formula. The definition of Gaussian PDF includes positive-definite covariance and equality of densities almost everywhere. Thus null-set changes do not constrain the theorem artificially.

Probability density validity explicitly includes nonnegativity almost everywhere, integrability and total integral one. The L1L^1L1 quantity is an extended nonnegative integral. The update's validity explicitly requires measurable weight and a finite, strictly positive normalizer. Total expressions outside that domain supply no assumed probability interpretation; C3 establishes validity on a tail.

All density sequences use positive integer indices. The limit measure is a Mathlib probability measure. Weak convergence is tested against Mathlib bounded continuous functions using the actual measures generated by the densities. The stationary model, standard recursive DKF, exact update and approximate update are defined independently of the theorem conclusions.

The mission addresses deterministic Theorem 2 of Appendix B. The random-sequence extension in Remark 4, conditions implying a Bernstein–von Mises theorem, and induction over filtering time are separate developments. The proof plan follows the appendix through C1–C2, Lemma 1, C3–C4, and the five-term comparison for C5.

Selected references

  • M. C. Burkhart, D. M. Brandman, B. Franco, L. R. Hochberg and M. T. Harrison, The Discriminative Kalman Filter for Bayesian Filtering with Nonlinear and Nongaussian Observation Models, Neural Computation 32(5), 969–1017, 2020. DOI: 10.1162/neco_a_01275.
  • R. E. Kalman, A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems, Journal of Basic Engineering 82(1), 35–45, 1960. DOI: 10.1115/1.3662552.
  • M. C. Burkhart, A Discriminative Approach to Bayesian Filtering with Applications to Human Neural Decoding, Ph.D. dissertation, Brown University, 2019. DOI: 10.26300/nhfp-xv22.
  • D. M. Brandman, M. C. Burkhart, J. Kelemen, B. Franco, M. T. Harrison and L. R. Hochberg, Robust Closed-Loop Control of a Cursor in a Person with Tetraplegia using Gaussian Process Regression, Neural Computation 30(11), 2986–3008, 2018. DOI: 10.1162/neco_a_01129.
  • D. M. Brandman, T. Hosman, J. Saab, M. C. Burkhart, B. E. Shanahan, J. G. Ciancibello et al., Rapid calibration of an intracortical brain–computer interface for people with tetraplegia, Journal of Neural Engineering 15(2), 026007, 2018. DOI: 10.1088/1741-2552/aa9ee7.
  • J. Casco-Rodriguez, C. Kemere and R. G. Baraniuk, [Re] The Discriminative Kalman Filter for Bayesian Filtering with Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian Observation Models, ReScience C 10(1), article 3, 2025. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15172014, published PDF.
  • M. C. Burkhart, Discriminative Bayesian filtering lends momentum to the stochastic Newton method for minimizing log-convex functions, Optimization Letters 17, 657–673, 2023. DOI: 10.1007/s11590-022-01895-5.
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