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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting 1: Dynamic Programming on the CPS Network Gives the Minimum MakespanResearch Paper

Motivation

A busy runway is the bottleneck of an airport, and the order in which arriving or departing aircraft use it determines how many operations fit into an hour. Consecutive aircraft must be spaced by minimum separations that depend on both aircraft (a light aircraft behind a heavy one needs a long gap because of wake turbulence), so reordering the first-come-first-served (FCFS) queue can raise throughput considerably. Unrestricted reordering is unacceptable in practice: it makes the controllers' job harder and can push one aircraft to the back of the queue indefinitely. Following Dear (1976), constrained position shifting (CPS) allows each aircraft to move at most kkk positions away from its FCFS position, with kkk between 1 and 3 in practice.

Earlier algorithms for CPS either exploited a small number of aircraft types and ignored time windows and precedence constraints (Psaraftis 1980), or needed exponentially many parallel processors (Trivizas 1998), and Carr (2004) conjectured that runway scheduling under CPS has exponential complexity in general. Balakrishnan and Chandran (Oper. Res. 58(6), 2010) showed that, for fixed kkk, the problem with time windows and precedence constraints is solved by dynamic programming on a network whose size is linear in the number of aircraft. This mission formalizes the core of that result: the network, its precedence pruning, and the dynamic program for the minimum makespan.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 aircraft, labelled 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1 in FCFS order, and the landing positions are also 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1. An instance consists of

  1. the maximum position shift k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N;
  2. separations δab≥0\delta_{ab}\ge 0δab​≥0, the minimum time between a leading aircraft aaa and a trailing aircraft bbb, satisfying the triangle inequality δac≤δab+δbc\delta_{ac}\le\delta_{ab}+\delta_{bc}δac​≤δab​+δbc​ (which holds for wake-vortex separations in arrivals-only or departures-only operation);
  3. a time window [e(a),l(a)][e(a),l(a)][e(a),l(a)] for each aircraft;
  4. a finite set of precedence pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) of distinct aircraft, meaning that xxx lands before yyy.

A kkk-CPS sequence is a bijection σ\sigmaσ from positions to aircraft with ∣σ(p)−p∣≤k|\sigma(p)-p|\le k∣σ(p)−p∣≤k for all ppp. A feasible schedule is such a σ\sigmaσ with landing times tpt_ptp​ such that e(σ(p))≤tp≤l(σ(p))e(\sigma(p))\le t_p\le l(\sigma(p))e(σ(p))≤tp​≤l(σ(p)), δσ(p)σ(q)≤tq−tp\delta_{\sigma(p)\sigma(q)}\le t_q-t_pδσ(p)σ(q)​≤tq​−tp​ for all positions p<qp<qp<q, and every precedence pair is respected. The makespan is tn−1t_{n-1}tn−1​, the landing time of the last aircraft.

The CPS network has stages p=1,…,np=1,\dots,np=1,…,n. A node of stage ppp is a list of min⁡{2k+1,p}\min\{2k+1,p\}min{2k+1,p} distinct aircraft occupying the positions that end at p−1p-1p−1, each within kkk of its FCFS position; its last entry is its final aircraft. An arc joins a stage-ppp node iii to a stage-(p+1)(p+1)(p+1) node jjj when the first min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} entries of jjj are the last min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} entries of iii. A source-sink path picks one node per stage, joined by arcs, and its sequence puts the final aircraft of the stage-(q+1)(q+1)(q+1) node at position qqq. The pruned network GGG deletes the nodes that violate a precedence pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y): those containing yyy before xxx, or yyy at a position less than x−kx-kx−k, or xxx at a position greater than y+ky+ky+k.

On GGG, with e(j),l(j)e(j),l(j)e(j),l(j) the window of the final aircraft of jjj, δi(j)\delta_i(j)δi​(j) the separation between the final aircraft of iii and jjj, and P(j)P(j)P(j) the predecessors of jjj, the dynamic program is T∗(j)=e(j)T^*(j)=e(j)T∗(j)=e(j) at stage 1 and

T∗(j)=max⁡{e(j), min⁡i∈P(j): T∗(i)≤l(i)(T∗(i)+δi(j))}(1)T^*(j)=\max\Big\{e(j),\ \min_{i\in P(j):\,T^*(i)\le l(i)}\big(T^*(i)+\delta_i(j)\big)\Big\}\qquad(1)T∗(j)=max{e(j), i∈P(j):T∗(i)≤l(i)min​(T∗(i)+δi​(j))}(1)

with min⁡∅=+∞\min\emptyset=+\inftymin∅=+∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: §4.1, the minimum makespan rule

∃ feasible schedule  ⟺  ∃ j∈Gn: T∗(j)≤l(j),\exists\ \text{feasible schedule}\iff \exists\, j\in G_n:\ T^*(j)\le l(j),∃ feasible schedule⟺∃j∈Gn​: T∗(j)≤l(j), min⁡{makespan of a feasible schedule}=min⁡{T∗(j):j∈Gn, T∗(j)≤l(j)},\min\{\text{makespan of a feasible schedule}\}=\min\{T^*(j): j\in G_n,\ T^*(j)\le l(j)\},min{makespan of a feasible schedule}=min{T∗(j):j∈Gn​, T∗(j)≤l(j)},

where GnG_nGn​ is stage nnn of GGG; the second identity is stated as "τ\tauτ is the least makespan iff τ\tauτ is the least admissible T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j)" for every real τ\tauτ.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1. σ\sigmaσ is a kkk-CPS sequence iff it is the sequence of a source-sink path of the CPS network.
  2. Lemma 1 (Case I). For a<ba<ba<b, a path whose sequence puts aaa after bbb has a node containing bbb before aaa.
  3. Lemma 2 (Case II). For a<ba<ba<b, in the position-constrained network, a path whose sequence puts aaa before bbb has a node containing aaa before bbb.
  4. §3.1 conclusion. The source-sink paths of GGG are exactly the kkk-CPS sequences respecting all precedence pairs.
  5. Lemma 3. For every node jjj of GGG, T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) is the earliest landing time of the final aircraft of jjj over all partial schedules ending at jjj, and +∞+\infty+∞ exactly when there is none.

Significance

The network turns a search over permutations into a shortest-path-like computation over O(n(2k+1)2k+1)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+1})O(n(2k+1)2k+1) nodes, so for the small values of kkk used in practice the minimum makespan with time windows and precedence constraints is computed in time linear in nnn. The same network underlies the paper's algorithms for total delay (§5.2) and, in a time-expanded form, for arbitrary separable costs without the triangle inequality (§6).

The paper's proofs are short and informal. A formalization pins down exactly what T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) means (the paper describes it only as "arrival time of the final aircraft of node iii in an optimal solution"), makes precise which nodes the precedence pruning removes, and checks the correctness of the stage-nnn rule. The result has not been machine-checked before.

Difficulty

Two features of the model make the correctness of the network nontrivial. First, a node records only a window of at most 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions, so nothing local prevents a path from using the same aircraft twice or omitting one; Theorem 1 asserts that the global sequence is nevertheless a permutation, and Lemmas 1 and 2 assert that precedence, a global property of the sequence, is detected inside single nodes. Second, the recursion (1) adds the separation only between consecutive aircraft, while feasibility constrains every pair of aircraft; the triangle inequality is what reconciles the two, and without it Lemma 3 fails.

The obvious reading of §4.1 also fails: taking the least T∗(j)T^*(j)T∗(j) over all stage-nnn nodes, as the paper prints, can select a node whose final aircraft lands after its latest time. The goal filters stage nnn by T∗(j)≤l(j)T^*(j)\le l(j)T∗(j)≤l(j).

Formalization scope

All data are real numbers; aircraft and positions are Fin n, 0-based; stages are 1-based natural numbers; [NeZero n] encodes n≥1n\ge 1n≥1. Separations are pairwise in the definition of feasibility, never only consecutive. The recursion takes values in WithTop ℝ, with ⊤=+∞\top=+\infty⊤=+∞; optima are stated with IsLeast over sets of makespans, never with a real infimum. Precedence pairs are a Finset of ordered pairs of distinct aircraft, covering both of the paper's cases.

Explicit readings of loose phrases:

  • "corresponding source-sink path" (Theorem 1) is the path whose final aircraft, stage by stage, form the sequence, as defined in the proof;
  • "the values of T∗(⋅)T^*(\cdot)T∗(⋅)" (Lemma 3) are earliest landing times over partial schedules ending at the node: paths in GGG with times satisfying the windows of the earlier aircraft, the earliest time of the last one, and all pairwise separations;
  • "the minimum makespan is the lowest value of T∗(⋅)T^*(\cdot)T∗(⋅) among all nodes in stage nnn" is corrected to the nodes with T∗(j)≤l(j)T^*(j)\le l(j)T∗(j)≤l(j), which is the paper's own feasibility check;
  • the Case II position filter uses the printed rule (<b−k<b-k<b−k, >a+k>a+k>a+k).

Not formalized: running times (Proposition 1 and the O(k)O(k)O(k) preprocessing remark), the predecessor pointers and tie-breaking that reconstruct an optimal sequence, the removal of nodes unreachable from the source or the sink (it does not change the set of source-sink paths), asymmetric shifts (§3.2) and disjoint time windows.

A formalization that defines feasibility with consecutive separations only, defines T∗T^*T∗ by the recursion and states Lemma 3 as an unfolding, or states Theorem 1 as "some CPS sequence exists iff some path exists" would be trivial; the statements here avoid all three.

The definitions (instance, kkk-CPS sequences, the CPS network and its pruning) are shared with the two other missions of this series (total delay, discrete time) and may be consolidated later. Proofs of the milestones, and lemmas about the window structure of the network, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Balakrishnan, B. G. Chandran, Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting, Operations Research 58(6), 1650–1665, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0869
  • H. N. Psaraftis, A Dynamic Programming Approach for Sequencing Groups of Identical Jobs, Operations Research 28(6), 1347–1359, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.6.1347
  • R. G. Dear, The Dynamic Scheduling of Aircraft in the Near Terminal Area, MIT Flight Transportation Laboratory Report R76-9, 1976.
  • D. A. Trivizas, Optimal Scheduling with Maximum Position Shift (MPS) Constraints: A Runway Scheduling Application, Journal of Navigation 51(2), 250–266, 1998.
  • F. R. Carr, Robust Decision-Support Tools for Airport Surface Traffic, Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2004.
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🏆Completed
Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting 2: The Minimum Total Delay Is a Shortest Source-Sink Path in the CPS NetworkResearch Paper

Motivation

Runway capacity is the binding constraint at many busy airports. An aircraft landing or taking off behind another must wait a minimum separation time that depends on the two aircraft's weight classes, because of wake vortices; the US Federal Aviation Administration publishes these spacing requirements. Reordering aircraft changes the sum of the separations incurred and hence the delays, but unrestricted reordering is unacceptable to airlines and controllers: an aircraft that arrived early could be pushed to the end of the queue. Constrained position shifting (CPS), introduced by Psaraftis (1980) and used in the United States and Europe since, allows each aircraft to move at most kkk positions from its first-come-first-served (FCFS) position.

Balakrishnan and Chandran (Operations Research 58(6), 2010) recast CPS scheduling as dynamic programming on a layered network, the CPS network, whose size is polynomial in the number of aircraft nnn for fixed kkk. Their §4 minimizes the makespan (the landing time of the last aircraft). §5.2 minimizes the total delay, equivalently the average delay, which measures passenger and airline cost more directly. This mission formalizes §5.2.

Setting

There are nnn aircraft labelled 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n in FCFS order, a maximum position shift k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N, separations δab≥0\delta_{ab}\ge 0δab​≥0 (the minimum time between leading aircraft aaa and trailing aircraft bbb), and a finite set of precedence pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) with x≠yx\ne yx=y, meaning that xxx must land before yyy. The separations satisfy the triangle inequality δac≤δab+δbc\delta_{ac}\le\delta_{ab}+\delta_{bc}δac​≤δab​+δbc​, as wake-vortex separations do for arrivals-only or departures-only operations.

A kkk-CPS sequence is a permutation σ\sigmaσ of the aircraft (position ppp receives aircraft σ(p)\sigma(p)σ(p)) with ∣σ(p)−p∣≤k|\sigma(p)-p|\le k∣σ(p)−p∣≤k for every ppp. A feasible schedule is a kkk-CPS sequence that places xxx before yyy for each precedence pair, together with landing times t1,…,tnt_1,\dots,t_nt1​,…,tn​ (by position) such that

tp≥0,tq−tp≥δσ(p)σ(q)(p<q).t_p\ge 0,\qquad t_q-t_p\ge\delta_{\sigma(p)\sigma(q)}\quad(p<q).tp​≥0,tq​−tp​≥δσ(p)σ(q)​(p<q).

There are no time windows. Its total delay is t1+⋯+tnt_1+\dots+t_nt1​+⋯+tn​, measured from time 000, at which all aircraft are available.

The CPS network has stages 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n. A node of stage ppp is a sequence of min⁡{2k+1,p}\min\{2k+1,p\}min{2k+1,p} distinct aircraft that can occupy positions p−min⁡{2k+1,p}+1,…,pp-\min\{2k+1,p\}+1,\dots,pp−min{2k+1,p}+1,…,p (each within kkk of its position). Its last aircraft is its final aircraft. An arc joins a stage-ppp node iii to a stage-(p+1)(p+1)(p+1) node jjj when the sequences overlap: the first min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} aircraft of jjj are the last min⁡{2k,p}\min\{2k,p\}min{2k,p} aircraft of iii. A source-sink path picks one node per stage, and its sequence assigns position ppp to the final aircraft of the stage-ppp node. Precedence is incorporated by deleting every node that places yyy before xxx for some pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y), or that places an aircraft outside the positions a pair allows it (§3.1). The result is the pruned network GGG. For nodes i,ji,ji,j, δi(j)\delta_i(j)δi​(j) is the separation between their final aircraft.

For a node jjj in stage ppp and times t1,…,tpt_1,\dots,t_pt1​,…,tp​ along a path to jjj, the paper uses the partial objective

θj(p)=t1+⋯+tp−1+(n−p+1) tp.\theta_j(p)=t_1+\dots+t_{p-1}+(n-p+1)\,t_p .θj​(p)=t1​+⋯+tp−1​+(n−p+1)tp​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the shortest-path equivalence (§5.2, p. 1656)

Give the arc (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) from stage p−1p-1p−1 to stage ppp the distance (n−p+1)δi(j)(n-p+1)\delta_i(j)(n−p+1)δi​(j), and source and sink arcs distance 000. Then a feasible schedule exists if and only if GGG has a source-sink path, and

min⁡(σ,t) feasible ∑p=1ntp  =  min⁡v source-sink path of G ∑p=2n(n−p+1) δvp−1(vp),\min_{(\sigma,t)\ \text{feasible}}\ \sum_{p=1}^{n}t_p\;=\;\min_{v\ \text{source-sink path of }G}\ \sum_{p=2}^{n}(n-p+1)\,\delta_{v_{p-1}}(v_p),(σ,t) feasiblemin​ p=1∑n​tp​=v source-sink path of Gmin​ p=2∑n​(n−p+1)δvp−1​​(vp​),

where each minimum exists exactly when the other does.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1 with Lemmas 1–2 (pp. 1652–1654): the source-sink paths of GGG are exactly the kkk-CPS sequences respecting the precedence pairs.
  2. Proposition 2 (p. 1656): in a schedule of minimum total delay, tp−tp−1=δσ(p−1)σ(p)t_p-t_{p-1}=\delta_{\sigma(p-1)\sigma(p)}tp​−tp−1​=δσ(p−1)σ(p)​ for every p≥2p\ge 2p≥2.
  3. Proposition 3 (p. 1656): all paths from the source to a node lying on some source-sink path contain the same set of aircraft.
  4. The recursion of §5.2 (p. 1656): with θj∗(p)\theta^*_j(p)θj∗​(p) the minimum of θj(p)\theta_j(p)θj​(p) over partial schedules ending at jjj, θj∗(1)=0\theta^*_j(1)=0θj∗​(1)=0 and
θj∗(p)=min⁡i∈P(j)(θi∗(p−1)+(n−p+1) δi(j)),\theta^*_j(p)=\min_{i\in P(j)}\big(\theta^*_i(p-1)+(n-p+1)\,\delta_i(j)\big),θj∗​(p)=i∈P(j)min​(θi∗​(p−1)+(n−p+1)δi​(j)),

where P(j)P(j)P(j) is the set of predecessors of jjj in GGG.

Significance

The result turns a sequencing problem over up to n!n!n! orders into a shortest-path computation on a directed acyclic graph with O(n(2k+1)2k+1)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+1})O(n(2k+1)2k+1) nodes, and it does so while respecting precedence constraints, which earlier CPS algorithms (Psaraftis 1980; Trivizas 1998) could not handle. It is the average-delay counterpart of the makespan algorithm of §4 and shares its network. The same network carries the discrete-time models of §6.

The paper's proof of the equivalence is one sentence ("follows from properties of shortest paths and is omitted here"). Propositions 2 and 3 are proved in a few lines, and Theorem 1 by an argument about windows of 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions. None of these results has a machine-checked proof. A formal development makes explicit the conventions the prose leaves implicit (the time origin, pairwise separations, which nodes Proposition 3 refers to) and checks that the recursion and the shortest-path value really compute the minimum total delay.

Difficulty

The arc distances weight the separation into stage ppp by n−p+1n-p+1n−p+1, the number of aircraft whose landing it delays. The equivalence needs two directions. A path's length must be the total delay of the schedule that lands each aircraft at its predecessor's time plus the separation, and that schedule must satisfy every pairwise separation, not only the consecutive ones; this is where the triangle inequality enters. Conversely, every feasible schedule must have total delay at least the length of its sequence's path, and every feasible sequence must be a path of GGG. The last point is Theorem 1 with precedence pruning: a node sees only 2k+12k+12k+1 consecutive positions, so detecting a violated precedence pair inside one node requires the position filter of §3.1 for pairs that reverse FCFS order. Proposition 3 is false for nodes that lie on no source-sink path, which the printed statement does not exclude.

Formalization scope

Aircraft and positions are Fin n, 0-based, and stages are 0-based natural numbers, so the arc into stage sss has distance (n−s)δi(j)(n-s)\delta_i(j)(n−s)δi​(j). Separations are real, nonnegative and satisfy the triangle inequality; feasibility requires them between every pair of positions. Landing times are real and nonnegative. The paper fixes no time origin, but its path length equals the total delay exactly when delays are measured from 000, and without a lower bound on the times the objective has no minimum. Minima are stated with IsLeast on sets of values, never with a real infimum. Feasibility and the existence of a path are stated separately, because the equality of least elements alone does not force them to exist.

The following loose phrases are given explicit readings. "In an optimal solution" (Proposition 2) means a feasible schedule whose total delay is at most that of every feasible schedule. "The CPS network" in Proposition 3 means nodes lying on a source-sink path, stated for the network without precedence pruning, which also covers the pruned one. "θ∗\theta^*θ∗" means the least element of the set of values of θj(p)\theta_j(p)θj​(p) over partial schedules ending at jjj, and the printed θj∗(s)\theta^*_j(s)θj∗​(s) is read as θj∗(p)\theta^*_j(p)θj∗​(p). The boundary value θj∗(1)=0\theta^*_j(1)=0θj∗​(1)=0 is not printed and is stated explicitly. Precedence pruning uses the printed Case II rule. Running times (the O(n(2k+1)2k+2)O(n(2k+1)^{2k+2})O(n(2k+1)2k+2) bound) are not formalized.

A trivializing formalization would require separations only between consecutive aircraft, define the minimum by the recursion itself, or use a network whose nodes need not be distinct or admissible. Here the minimum is defined directly over feasible schedules, separations are pairwise, and the nodes are checked against the paper's Figure 1 (stage sizes 2, 4, 7, 14, 14, 7 and 13 paths for n=6n=6n=6, k=1k=1k=1).

The development needs finite sums, permutations of Fin n and lists. The network layer (stages, arcs, precedence pruning, Theorem 1) is shared with the makespan and discrete-time missions of this series and reusable for any CPS objective. Proofs of any milestone, alternative proofs of the goal, and generalizations (asymmetric shifts, §3.2) are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Balakrishnan, B. G. Chandran, Algorithms for Scheduling Runway Operations Under Constrained Position Shifting, Operations Research 58(6), 1650–1665, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1100.0869
  • H. N. Psaraftis, A Dynamic Programming Approach for Sequencing Groups of Identical Jobs, Operations Research 28(6), 1347–1359, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.6.1347
  • R. G. Dear, Y. S. Sherif, An Algorithm for Computer Assisted Sequencing and Scheduling of Terminal Area Operations, Transportation Research Part A 25(2–3), 129–139, 1991.
  • D. A. Trivizas, Optimal Scheduling with Maximum Position Shift (MPS) Constraints: A Runway Scheduling Application, Journal of Navigation 51(2), 250–266, 1998.
  • R. de Neufville, A. Odoni, Airport Systems: Planning, Design, and Management, McGraw-Hill, 2003.
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Combinatorial Algorithm Minimizing Submodular Functions in Strongly Polynomial Time II: Minimizing a Submodular Function over a Ring Family Reduces to Minimizing over All SubsetsResearch Paper

Motivation

A submodular function on a finite set VVV is a function fff on subsets of VVV with f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)f(X \cup Y) + f(X \cap Y) \le f(X) + f(Y)f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y). Minimizing such a function is one of the central tractable problems of combinatorial optimization: it contains minimum cuts in directed graphs, matroid intersection and polymatroid problems, and many scheduling and facility-location subproblems. Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver showed in 1981 that it can be done in polynomial time with the ellipsoid method; in 2000, Schrijver (JCTB 80, 346–355) and, simultaneously, Iwata, Fleischer and Fujishige (J. ACM 48, 2001) gave the first combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithms.

In many applications the function is not defined on all subsets of VVV but only on a ring family: a collection closed under union and intersection, such as the order ideals of a precedence relation in scheduling, or the sets of a closure system. The last section of Schrijver's paper (§6, pp. 353–354) shows that nothing is lost: any algorithm minimizing submodular functions on all subsets of VVV also minimizes a submodular function given only on a ring family. This mission formalizes that reduction.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set. A collection C\mathcal CC of subsets of VVV is a ring family if X∪Y∈CX \cup Y \in \mathcal CX∪Y∈C and X∩Y∈CX \cap Y \in \mathcal CX∩Y∈C whenever X,Y∈CX, Y \in \mathcal CX,Y∈C. A real function fff is submodular on C\mathcal CC if

f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)(X,Y∈C).f(X \cup Y) + f(X \cap Y) \le f(X) + f(Y) \qquad (X, Y \in \mathcal C).f(X∪Y)+f(X∩Y)≤f(X)+f(Y)(X,Y∈C).

Following the paper, C\mathcal CC is normalized: ∅∈C\emptyset \in \mathcal C∅∈C, V∈CV \in \mathcal CV∈C, and Mu≠MvM_u \ne M_vMu​=Mv​ for all u≠vu \ne vu=v, where MvM_vMv​ is the smallest set of C\mathcal CC containing vvv. (Elements with the same MvM_vMv​ can be identified.) Under this normalization C\mathcal CC is the family of lower ideals of a partial order on VVV.

For X⊆VX \subseteq VX⊆V, the closure X‾\overline XX is the smallest set of C\mathcal CC containing XXX. For v∈Vv \in Vv∈V, LvL_vLv​ is the largest set of C\mathcal CC not containing vvv. The paper defines weights

c(v):=max⁡{0, f(Lv)−f(Lv∪{v})}(23)c(v) := \max\{0,\ f(L_v) - f(L_v \cup \{v\})\} \qquad (23)c(v):=max{0, f(Lv​)−f(Lv​∪{v})}(23)

with the modular extension c(X):=∑v∈Xc(v)c(X) := \sum_{v \in X} c(v)c(X):=∑v∈X​c(v), and the function on all subsets of VVV

g(X):=f(X‾)+c(X‾)(X⊆V).(26)g(X) := f(\overline X) + c(\overline X) \qquad (X \subseteq V). \qquad (26)g(X):=f(X)+c(X)(X⊆V).(26)

In Lean, VVV is a type with [Fintype V] [DecidableEq V], subsets are Finset V, C\mathcal CC is C : Set (Finset V), and the objects above are IsRingFamily C, SubmodularOn C f, closure C X, M C v, L C v, cw C f v (for c(v)c(v)c(v)), csum C f X (for c(X)c(X)c(X)) and g C f X, all in the namespace SchrijverSFM.Ring.

Formalization targets

Goal: the reduction

Under the normalization above, for fff submodular on C\mathcal CC:

g is submodular on all subsets of V,g \text{ is submodular on all subsets of } V,g is submodular on all subsets of V,

and, if U⊆VU \subseteq VU⊆V minimizes g(U)−c(U)g(U) - c(U)g(U)−c(U) over all subsets of VVV, then U‾∈C\overline U \in \mathcal CU∈C and

f(U‾)≤f(T)for all T∈C.f(\overline U) \le f(T) \qquad \text{for all } T \in \mathcal C.f(U)≤f(T)for all T∈C.

Both conjuncts are needed: the second alone follows almost from the definitions, while the first is what makes an all-subsets algorithm applicable to g−cg - cg−c in the first place.

Milestones

  1. C\mathcal CC is the collection of all lower ideals of some partial order on VVV (p. 353).
  2. LvL_vLv​ is the largest set in C\mathcal CC not containing vvv, equal to the union of the MuM_uMu​ not containing vvv, and Lv∪{v}∈CL_v \cup \{v\} \in \mathcal CLv​∪{v}∈C (p. 353, (23)).
  3. The one-element step (25): f(X)≤f(Y)+c(v)f(X) \le f(Y) + c(v)f(X)≤f(Y)+c(v) for X,Y∈CX, Y \in \mathcal CX,Y∈C, Y=X∪{v}Y = X \cup \{v\}Y=X∪{v}, v∉Xv \notin Xv∈/X.
  4. Monotonicity (24): f(Y)+c(Y)≥f(X)+c(X)f(Y) + c(Y) \ge f(X) + c(X)f(Y)+c(Y)≥f(X)+c(X) for X⊆YX \subseteq YX⊆Y in C\mathcal CC.
  5. The closure identities X‾∪Y‾=X∪Y‾\overline X \cup \overline Y = \overline{X \cup Y}X∪Y=X∪Y and X‾∩Y‾⊇X∩Y‾\overline X \cap \overline Y \supseteq \overline{X \cap Y}X∩Y⊇X∩Y.
  6. Display (27): ggg is submodular.
  7. Transfer of minimizers: if UUU minimizes g−cg - cg−c over 2V2^V2V, then U‾\overline UU minimizes fff over C\mathcal CC.

Significance

The reduction means that a single algorithm for unconstrained submodular minimization serves for every ring family, given only the sets MvM_vMv​. This is how ring-family constrained problems (for example minimum-cost closures and precedence-constrained scheduling objectives) are routinely handed to general submodular-minimization codes, and it is the standard justification for stating submodular minimization algorithms over 2V2^V2V only.

On the formal side, the mission produces a small reusable layer on ring families of finite sets (closure operator, the lower-ideal representation, the largest set avoiding an element) together with the monotonization trick (24), which is of independent use whenever a function on a lattice of sets has to be made monotone by a modular correction. The result is classical and its proof in the paper is complete; to our knowledge no machine-checked version exists. Companion mission I of this series formalizes the algorithm of §§2–5 itself; this mission does not depend on it, since the algorithm enters only as the hypothesis that a minimizer UUU of g−cg - cg−c is given.

Difficulty

Every step is elementary, but two points are easy to get wrong. First, (24) is proved on the page by assuming Y=X∪{v}Y = X \cup \{v\}Y=X∪{v}; reducing the general case X⊆YX \subseteq YX⊆Y to such one-element steps inside C\mathcal CC requires the normalization Mu≠MvM_u \ne M_vMu​=Mv​: without it a ring family can jump by more than one element (for C={∅,V}\mathcal C = \{\emptyset, V\}C={∅,V} with ∣V∣=2|V| = 2∣V∣=2 the inequality (24) fails for suitable fff). Second, the weights c(v)c(v)c(v) evaluate fff at Lv∪{v}L_v \cup \{v\}Lv​∪{v}, which belongs to C\mathcal CC only because of the same normalization; a formalization that drops it lets values of fff outside C\mathcal CC leak into ccc and ggg. The submodularity proof (27) also needs the asymmetric closure facts — equality for unions but only containment for intersections — which is exactly why the monotonicity (24) is required.

Formalization scope

  • VVV is a finite type with decidable equality; subsets are Finset V; C\mathcal CC is a Set (Finset V).
  • fff is a real function on all of Finset V; only its values on C\mathcal CC matter, and under the hypotheses no other value enters ccc, ggg or the conclusions. The paper allows any ordered field; the formalization uses R\mathbb RR.
  • The normalization of p. 353 is assumed as hypotheses: ∅ ∈ C, Finset.univ ∈ C, and M C u ≠ M C v for u ≠ v. No hypothesis f(∅)=0f(\emptyset) = 0f(∅)=0 is made; §6 does not use it.
  • The closure is the intersection (Finset.inf) of the sets of C\mathcal CC containing XXX, and LvL_vLv​ the union (Finset.sup) of the sets of C\mathcal CC avoiding vvv; their default values on an empty family are never reached under the hypotheses.
  • c(X)c(X)c(X) is the modular extension ∑v∈Xc(v)\sum_{v \in X} c(v)∑v∈X​c(v); the max⁡{0,⋅}\max\{0, \cdot\}max{0,⋅} in (23) is kept, so c≥0c \ge 0c≥0.
  • Submodularity of ggg on all subsets is the published platform definition NonmonotoneSubmod.Shared.Submodular.
  • Not formalized: the running-time claims of §6 ("we can find ccc by 2∣V∣2|V|2∣V∣ oracle calls", strongly polynomial time) and the oracle model; there is no machine model.
  • The goal does not assume (24) or (27), and it is not the minimizer-transfer statement alone, which would be near-definitional.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in the order listed, general lemmas on closure operators of ring families of Finsets, and the lower-ideal representation, which is reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Schrijver, A combinatorial algorithm minimizing submodular functions in strongly polynomial time, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 80 (2000), 346–355. https://doi.org/10.1006/jctb.2000.1989
  • S. Iwata, L. Fleischer, S. Fujishige, A combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithm for minimizing submodular functions, J. ACM 48 (2001), 761–777. https://doi.org/10.1145/502090.502096
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, The ellipsoid method and its consequences in combinatorial optimization, Combinatorica 1 (1981), 169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579273
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Quantitative Stability in Stochastic Programming: The Method of Probability Metrics 2: Linear Two-Stage Programs Are Lipschitz Stable in the Fortet–Mourier Metric ζ₂Research Paper

Why stability of two-stage programs matters

A linear two-stage stochastic program with fixed recourse chooses a here-and-now decision xxx before a random vector ξ\xiξ is observed, and pays a recourse cost afterwards. It is the basic model of stochastic programming, used in capacity planning, energy and supply-chain models. In practice the distribution μ\muμ of ξ\xiξ is never known exactly: it is estimated from data, replaced by a discrete scenario approximation, or perturbed for robustness. The question is how much the optimal value and the optimal decisions can move when μ\muμ is replaced by a nearby ν\nuν, and in which distance between probability measures "nearby" should be measured.

Rachev and Römisch (Math. Oper. Res. 27(4), 2002, doi:10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304; the mission cites the authors' preprint from edoc.hu-berlin.de) answer this with the method of probability metrics: they derive from the structure of the integrand a canonical distance on measures for each class of models. For linear two-stage programs the canonical distance is the Fortet–Mourier metric of order 2.

Timeline. Robinson and Wets (1987) studied qualitative stability of two-stage programs with respect to weak convergence of measures. Walkup and Wets (1969) had earlier established the piecewise-bilinear structure of the second-stage value function used here. Römisch and Schultz (1991) proved a quantitative stability result for two-stage programs with complete recourse in the Wasserstein metric W2W_2W2​. The present paper (published 2002) replaces complete recourse by relatively complete recourse plus dual feasibility, and W2W_2W2​ by the metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, which it bounds by a multiple of W2W_2W2​ (p. 13).

Setting

Let X⊆RmX\subseteq\mathbb R^mX⊆Rm be a nonempty polyhedron and Ξ⊆Rs\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^sΞ⊆Rs a polyhedron. Fix c∈Rmc\in\mathbb R^mc∈Rm, an (r,m‾)(r,\overline m)(r,m)-matrix WWW, and data q(ξ)∈Rm‾q(\xi)\in\mathbb R^{\overline m}q(ξ)∈Rm, h(ξ)∈Rrh(\xi)\in\mathbb R^rh(ξ)∈Rr and an (r,m)(r,m)(r,m)-matrix T(ξ)T(\xi)T(ξ) depending affine linearly on ξ\xiξ. The second-stage value is

Φ(u,t)=inf⁡{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},\Phi(u,t)=\inf\{uy:\ Wy=t,\ y\ge0\},Φ(u,t)=inf{uy: Wy=t, y≥0},

with pos⁡W={Wy:y≥0}\operatorname{pos}W=\{Wy:y\ge0\}posW={Wy:y≥0} and D={u:{z:W′z≤u}≠∅}D=\{u:\{z:W'z\le u\}\ne\emptyset\}D={u:{z:W′z≤u}=∅}. The integrand is f0(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x)f_0(\xi,x)=cx+\Phi(q(\xi),h(\xi)-T(\xi)x)f0​(ξ,x)=cx+Φ(q(ξ),h(ξ)−T(ξ)x) when h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D, and +∞+\infty+∞ otherwise. For a Borel probability measure ν\nuν on Ξ\XiΞ the problem is

min⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ):x∈X},\min\Big\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi):x\in X\Big\},min{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ):x∈X},

with optimal value v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) and solution set S(ν)S(\nu)S(ν). Two assumptions are made: (A1) h(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈pos⁡Wh(\xi)-T(\xi)x\in\operatorname{pos}Wh(ξ)−T(ξ)x∈posW and q(ξ)∈Dq(\xi)\in Dq(ξ)∈D for all (ξ,x)∈Ξ×X(\xi,x)\in\Xi\times X(ξ,x)∈Ξ×X; (A2) μ\muμ has a finite second moment.

The Fortet–Mourier metric ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ on P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_2(\Xi)P2​(Ξ), the probability measures on Ξ\XiΞ with finite second moment, is

ζ2(μ,ν)=sup⁡f∈F2(Ξ)∣∫Ξf dμ−∫Ξf dν∣,F2(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~)∣≤max⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥}.\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)=\sup_{f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)}\Big|\int_\Xi f\,d\mu-\int_\Xi f\,d\nu\Big|,\quad \mathcal F_2(\Xi)=\{f:|f(\xi)-f(\tilde\xi)|\le\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|\}.ζ2​(μ,ν)=f∈F2​(Ξ)sup​​∫Ξ​fdμ−∫Ξ​fdν​,F2​(Ξ)={f:∣f(ξ)−f(ξ~​)∣≤max{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥}.

For an open bounded U⊇S(μ)\mathcal U\supseteq S(\mu)U⊇S(μ), the growth function is ψ(τ)=inf⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩cl⁡U}\psi(\tau)=\inf\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\mu(d\xi)-v(\mu): d(x,S(\mu))\ge\tau,\ x\in X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U\}ψ(τ)=inf{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈X∩clU}, and Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η)\Psi(\eta)=\eta+\psi^{-1}(2\eta)Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(2η) with ψ−1(t)=sup⁡{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}\psi^{-1}(t)=\sup\{\tau\ge0:\psi(\tau)\le t\}ψ−1(t)=sup{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (p. 13)

Under (A1), (A2), S(μ)≠∅S(\mu)\ne\emptysetS(μ)=∅ and U\mathcal UU an open bounded neighbourhood of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ), there are L>0L>0L>0 and δ>0\delta>0δ>0 such that for every ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ) with ζ2(μ,ν)<δ\zeta_2(\mu,\nu)<\deltaζ2​(μ,ν)<δ:

∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤L ζ2(μ,ν),∅≠S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(L ζ2(μ,ν)) B.|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|\le L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu),\qquad \emptyset\ne S(\nu)\subseteq S(\mu)+\Psi(L\,\zeta_2(\mu,\nu))\,\mathbb B.∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣≤Lζ2​(μ,ν),∅=S(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(Lζ2​(μ,ν))B.

The constants are existential, so the goal does not depend on any particular estimate of them.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 11): Φ\PhiΦ is finite and continuous on the polyhedral cone D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, piecewise of the form Cju⋅tC_ju\cdot tCj​u⋅t on finitely many polyhedral cones with disjoint interiors, convex in ttt and concave in uuu.
  2. Proposition 3.2 (p. 11): f0f_0f0​ is a normal convex integrand, and for ∥x∥≤r\|x\|\le r∥x∥≤r it satisfies ∣f0(ξ,x)−f0(ξ~,x)∣≤Lrmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~∥}∥ξ−ξ~∥|f_0(\xi,x)-f_0(\tilde\xi,x)|\le Lr\max\{1,\|\xi\|,\|\tilde\xi\|\}\|\xi-\tilde\xi\|∣f0​(ξ,x)−f0​(ξ~​,x)∣≤Lrmax{1,∥ξ∥,∥ξ~​∥}∥ξ−ξ~​∥, a Lipschitz bound in xxx with factor L^max⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}\hat L\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}L^max{1,∥ξ∥2}, and ∣f0(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax⁡{1,∥ξ∥2}|f_0(\xi,x)|\le Kr\max\{1,\|\xi\|^2\}∣f0​(ξ,x)∣≤Krmax{1,∥ξ∥2}.
  3. PFU⊇P2(Ξ)\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}\supseteq\mathcal P_2(\Xi)PFU​​⊇P2​(Ξ) (p. 13): every measure with finite second moment satisfies the integrability conditions of the general theory.
  4. Corollary 2.8 (p. 10): the general Lipschitz stability theorem in the metric ζg\zeta_gζg​ for convex models whose integrands lie, up to a factor LLL, in the class Fg\mathcal F_gFg​.

Significance

The theorem says that, under the two natural well-posedness conditions of linear recourse models, optimal values are Lipschitz continuous and solution sets move by at most Ψ(Lζ2)\Psi(L\zeta_2)Ψ(Lζ2​), where ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ only sees test functions with the local Lipschitz growth of the integrand. Since ζ2≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2\zeta_2\le(1+\int\|\xi\|^2d\mu+\int\|\xi\|^2d\nu)^{1/2}W_2ζ2​≤(1+∫∥ξ∥2dμ+∫∥ξ∥2dν)1/2W2​, the result contains the earlier W2W_2W2​ stability theorem.

The results are proved in the paper, except Lemma 3.1, which it cites from Walkup and Wets (1969). None of them is formalized in Mathlib or on Prove2Me. A formalization would provide a checked model of the two-stage recourse function, the Fortet–Mourier metrics, and an end-to-end quantitative stability theorem for stochastic programs, none of which exist in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds ∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣|v(\mu)-v(\nu)|∣v(μ)−v(ν)∣ by sup⁡x∣∫f0(⋅,x) d(μ−ν)∣\sup_x|\int f_0(\cdot,x)\,d(\mu-\nu)|supx​∣∫f0​(⋅,x)d(μ−ν)∣ and then by Lζ2L\zeta_2Lζ2​. Two steps fail. First, the supremum ranges over all of XXX, which may be unbounded, while f0(⋅,x)/Lf_0(\cdot,x)/Lf0​(⋅,x)/L lies in F2\mathcal F_2F2​ only for xxx in a bounded set; the argument must localize to X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU and then show, using convexity, that for ν\nuν close to μ\muμ the localized and global problems coincide. Second, the Lipschitz estimate in ξ\xiξ for f0f_0f0​ requires the piecewise-bilinear structure of Φ\PhiΦ (Lemma 3.1) and a chaining argument across the polyhedral pieces of Ξ\XiΞ; the integrand is not differentiable.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). The paper never fixes its norm and all its constants are existential, so the Euclidean norm is a faithful instance. Second-stage vectors u,t,y,zu,t,y,zu,t,y,z are coordinate vectors Fin k → ℝ; index sets are 0-based.
  • A polyhedron is a finite intersection of closed half-spaces. The standing assumptions are: XXX a nonempty polyhedron, Ξ\XiΞ a polyhedron, q,h,Tq,h,Tq,h,T affine maps.
  • A measure in P(Ξ)\mathcal P(\Xi)P(Ξ) is a Borel probability measure on Rs\mathbb R^sRs with ν(Ξc)=0\nu(\Xi^c)=0ν(Ξc)=0; ∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ)\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi)∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ) is the extended-real integral of the published DupacovaWets.Consistency.expect over ν\nuν restricted to Ξ\XiΞ.
  • Φ\PhiΦ, f0f_0f0​, vvv and ψ\psiψ are extended-real infima (+∞+\infty+∞ over an empty set); "min" in ψ\psiψ is read as an infimum. ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​, ζg\zeta_gζg​, ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 and Ψ\PsiΨ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and the distance to a set is the extended distance (+∞+\infty+∞ to ∅\emptyset∅).
  • To rule out trivializations: every value bound states that v(μ)v(\mu)v(μ), v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) are finite before comparing them, so the extended-real arithmetic ∞−∞\infty-\infty∞−∞ cannot make it vacuous; in ζ2\zeta_2ζ2​ a test function that is not integrable for both measures contributes +∞+\infty+∞, never a junk 000.
  • Disclosed readings: Proposition 3.2 leaves its radius rrr unquantified; it is stated with the constants first and then every r≥1r\ge1r≥1. Lemma 3.1's "pos⁡W×D\operatorname{pos}W\times DposW×D" is read as D×pos⁡WD\times\operatorname{pos}WD×posW, in the order of Φ\PhiΦ's arguments. Corollary 2.8 adds μ,ν∈PFU(Ξ)\mu,\nu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\Xi)μ,ν∈PFU​​(Ξ), an assumption of Theorem 2.2 that its proof invokes; Theorem 3.3 needs no such addition, because milestone 3 supplies it.
  • Needed infrastructure: LP duality and the Walkup–Wets decomposition of Φ\PhiΦ; normal integrands and measurability of their infima; integrability under moment conditions; the general stability theorems (Theorems 2.2–2.3 of the paper) for d=0d=0d=0. The definitions of ζp\zeta_pζp​, Fg\mathcal F_gFg​ and normal integrands are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions toward any milestone, and proofs of the auxiliary facts (for example, that every f∈F2(Ξ)f\in\mathcal F_2(\Xi)f∈F2​(Ξ) is integrable for ν∈P2(Ξ)\nu\in\mathcal P_2(\Xi)ν∈P2​(Ξ)), are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Mathematics of Operations Research 27(4) (2002) 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304 (cited here from the authors' preprint, edoc.hu-berlin.de)
  • D. W. Walkup, R. J-B Wets, Lifting projections of convex polyhedra, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 28 (1969) 465–475 (the paper's [55]).
  • S. M. Robinson, R. J-B Wets, Stability in two-stage stochastic programming, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 25 (1987) 1409–1416 (the paper's [37]).
  • W. Römisch, R. Schultz, Stability analysis for stochastic programs, Annals of Operations Research 30 (1991) 241–266 (the paper's [40]).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J-B Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer (the paper's [38]; normal integrands, Chapter 14).
  • S. T. Rachev, Probability Metrics and the Stability of Stochastic Models, Wiley, Chichester 1991 (the paper's [32]).
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Bounded-parameter Markov Decision Processes 1: The Optimistic and Pessimistic Optimal Interval Value Functions Satisfy Bellman-like EquationsResearch Paper

Motivation

A Markov decision process is specified by numbers: transition probabilities and rewards. In practice these numbers are estimated from data, elicited from experts, or produced by aggregating the states of a larger model, and in each case what is actually known is a range for each parameter rather than its value. Givan, Leach and Dean (Artificial Intelligence, 2000) introduced bounded-parameter MDPs (BMDPs) to reason about a whole family of MDPs at once: every transition probability is only known to lie in a closed interval. Their motivation was state-space aggregation, where grouping states with similar but not identical dynamics yields exactly such interval bounds, and the same object later reappeared as the interval or "box" uncertainty set of robust MDPs (Nilim and El Ghaoui, 2005; Iyengar, 2005) and of optimistic exploration in reinforcement learning (Strehl and Littman, 2008).

Over such a family, the value of a policy is no longer a number but an interval, and "optimal" needs a definition. This mission formalizes the paper's answer: two total orders on intervals, the corresponding optimal policies, and the Bellman-like equations their interval value functions satisfy.

Setting

An exact MDP M=⟨Q,A,F,R⟩M=\langle Q,A,F,R\rangleM=⟨Q,A,F,R⟩ has a finite set QQQ of states, a finite nonempty set AAA of actions, transition probabilities Fpq(α)≥0F_{pq}(\alpha)\ge 0Fpq​(α)≥0 with ∑qFpq(α)=1\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\alpha)=1∑q​Fpq​(α)=1, a reward R(q)∈RR(q)\in\mathbb RR(q)∈R for each state and a discount rate 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. A policy is a map π:Q→A\pi:Q\to Aπ:Q→A; Π\PiΠ is the set of all policies. The value function VM,π(p)V_{M,\pi}(p)VM,π​(p) is the expected discounted sum of rewards ∑t≥0γt E[R(Xt)∣X0=p]\sum_{t\ge 0}\gamma^t\,\mathbb E[R(X_t)\mid X_0=p]∑t≥0​γtE[R(Xt​)∣X0​=p] along the Markov chain with transitions Fpq(π(p))F_{pq}(\pi(p))Fpq​(π(p)). The operators

VIM,π(v)(p)=R(p)+γ∑qFpq(π(p)) v(q),VIM,α(v)(p)=R(p)+γ∑qFpq(α) v(q)VI_{M,\pi}(v)(p)=R(p)+\gamma\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\pi(p))\,v(q),\qquad VI_{M,\alpha}(v)(p)=R(p)+\gamma\sum_{q}F_{pq}(\alpha)\,v(q)VIM,π​(v)(p)=R(p)+γq∑​Fpq​(π(p))v(q),VIM,α​(v)(p)=R(p)+γq∑​Fpq​(α)v(q)

act on value functions v:Q→Rv:Q\to\mathbb Rv:Q→R. V1≤domV2V_1\le_{\mathrm{dom}}V_2V1​≤dom​V2​ is the statewise order.

A BMDP M↕M_\updownarrowM↕​ gives for each p,q,αp,q,\alphap,q,α an interval [F↓pq(α),F↑pq(α)]⊆[0,1][F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha),F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)]\subseteq[0,1][F↓​pq​(α),F↑​pq​(α)]⊆[0,1] with ∑qF↓pq(α)≤1≤∑qF↑pq(α)\sum_q F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)\le 1\le\sum_q F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)∑q​F↓​pq​(α)≤1≤∑q​F↑​pq​(α), a reward RRR and a discount rate γ\gammaγ. Its members M∈M↕M\in M_\updownarrowM∈M↕​ are the exact MDPs with that RRR and γ\gammaγ and with FpqM(α)∈[F↓pq(α),F↑pq(α)]F^M_{pq}(\alpha)\in[F_\downarrow{}_{pq}(\alpha),F_\uparrow{}_{pq}(\alpha)]FpqM​(α)∈[F↓​pq​(α),F↑​pq​(α)]. The interval value of a policy is

V↕π(q)=[min⁡M∈M↕VM,π(q), max⁡M∈M↕VM,π(q)]=[V↓π(q),V↑π(q)].V_\updownarrow{}_\pi(q)=\Big[\min_{M\in M_\updownarrow}V_{M,\pi}(q),\ \max_{M\in M_\updownarrow}V_{M,\pi}(q)\Big]=[V_\downarrow{}_\pi(q),V_\uparrow{}_\pi(q)].V↕​π​(q)=[M∈M↕​min​VM,π​(q), M∈M↕​max​VM,π​(q)]=[V↓​π​(q),V↑​π​(q)].

Intervals are compared by the optimistic order, which compares upper bounds first and breaks ties by lower bounds, and the pessimistic order, which compares lower bounds first:

[l1,u1]≤opt[l2,u2]  ⟺  u1<u2 ∨ (u1=u2∧l1≤l2),[l1,u1]≤pes[l2,u2]  ⟺  l1<l2 ∨ (l1=l2∧u1≤u2).[l_1,u_1]\le_{\mathrm{opt}}[l_2,u_2]\iff u_1<u_2\ \vee\ (u_1=u_2\wedge l_1\le l_2),\qquad [l_1,u_1]\le_{\mathrm{pes}}[l_2,u_2]\iff l_1<l_2\ \vee\ (l_1=l_2\wedge u_1\le u_2).[l1​,u1​]≤opt​[l2​,u2​]⟺u1​<u2​ ∨ (u1​=u2​∧l1​≤l2​),[l1​,u1​]≤pes​[l2​,u2​]⟺l1​<l2​ ∨ (l1​=l2​∧u1​≤u2​).

A policy πopt\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}πopt​ is optimistically optimal if V↕πopt(q)≥optV↕π(q)V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}(q)\ge_{\mathrm{opt}}V_\updownarrow{}_\pi(q)V↕​πopt​​(q)≥opt​V↕​π​(q) for all π\piπ and qqq; pessimistically optimal is defined with ≥pes\ge_{\mathrm{pes}}≥pes​. The optimal interval value functions are V↕opt=V↕πoptV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}V↕​opt​=V↕​πopt​​ and V↕pes=V↕πpesV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{pes}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{pes}}}V↕​pes​=V↕​πpes​​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9, equations (25) and (26)

At every state ppp,

V↕opt(p)=max⁡α∈A, ≤opt[min⁡M∈M↕VIM,α(V↓opt)(p), max⁡M∈M↕VIM,α(V↑opt)(p)],V_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}(p)=\max_{\alpha\in A,\ \le_{\mathrm{opt}}}\Big[\min_{M\in M_\updownarrow}VI_{M,\alpha}(V_\downarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}})(p),\ \max_{M\in M_\updownarrow}VI_{M,\alpha}(V_\uparrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}})(p)\Big],V↕​opt​(p)=α∈A, ≤opt​max​[M∈M↕​min​VIM,α​(V↓​opt​)(p), M∈M↕​max​VIM,α​(V↑​opt​)(p)],

and the same with pes\mathrm{pes}pes in place of opt\mathrm{opt}opt. The maximum over actions is for the total order on intervals: attained by some action and an upper bound for every action.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: Theorem 3 (second sentence: VM,πV_{M,\pi}VM,π​ is the unique fixed point of VIM,πVI_{M,\pi}VIM,π​); Theorem 6 (comparison: u≤domVIM,π(u)u\le_{\mathrm{dom}}VI_{M,\pi}(u)u≤dom​VIM,π​(u) implies u≤domVM,πu\le_{\mathrm{dom}}V_{M,\pi}u≤dom​VM,π​, and its three variants); Lemma 1 (every member's values and backups are bracketed by finitely many order-maximizing MDPs); Lemma 2 (statewise composition of member MDPs dominates, or is dominated by, both components); Theorem 7 (π\piπ-maximizing and π\piπ-minimizing MDPs exist among the order-maximizing ones); Corollary 1 (V↓πV_\downarrow{}_\piV↓​π​ and V↑πV_\uparrow{}_\piV↑​π​ are a minimum and a maximum for ≤dom\le_{\mathrm{dom}}≤dom​); Lemma 3 (statewise composition of policies improves the upper, resp. lower, bounds); Theorem 8 (optimistically and pessimistically optimal policies exist).

Significance

Theorem 9 is the interval analogue of the Bellman optimality equation. It is what makes the optimal interval value functions computable: the paper's interval value iteration algorithms IVI↕optIVI_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}IVI↕​opt​ and IVI↕pesIVI_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{pes}}IVI↕​pes​ (Section 5) iterate exactly the right-hand sides of (25) and (26). The lower half of (26) is the max-min equation of robust dynamic programming with rectangular box uncertainty, and the upper half of (25) is the max-max equation behind optimistic planning; Theorem 9 states both, together with the tie-breaking second component, in one model. Theorems 7 and 8 are of independent use: a single member MDP is worst (or best) for a policy at all states at once, and the partial orders on interval value functions nevertheless have maxima over policies.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The platform has robust Bellman equations in other models (costs, general rectangular sets, a sup over nature) but nothing on BMDPs, interval value functions, or the orders ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​ and ≤pes\le_{\mathrm{pes}}≤pes​. The mission produces the paper's optimality theory end to end, from the comparison principle for exact MDPs to the two Bellman-like equations, on a model shared with the companion mission on interval policy evaluation.

Difficulty

The orders ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​ and ≤pes\le_{\mathrm{pes}}≤pes​ are total on intervals but only partial on interval value functions, and they are lexicographic. The obvious construction of an optimal policy, switching statewise to whichever of two policies has the better interval, fails: the composed policy need not dominate either component in ≤opt\le_{\mathrm{opt}}≤opt​, because lower bounds can get worse at states where the upper bounds do not change (the paper says so explicitly, eq. (20)). Existence therefore needs a two-stage argument. A second obstacle is that V↓πV_\downarrow{}_\piV↓​π​ and V↑πV_\uparrow{}_\piV↑​π​ are defined statewise, as minima over an uncountable family; that one member attains them at every state simultaneously is a theorem (Theorem 7), and the Bellman-like equations rest on it. Finally, the inner minima in (25) act on V↓optV_\downarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}V↓​opt​, the lower bound of an optimistically chosen policy, which is not the componentwise best lower bound over policies; the equation couples the two components through the tie-break.

Formalization scope

QQQ and AAA are finite types, AAA is nonempty; QQQ may be empty. An exact MDP is a structure with transition function F p α q =Fpq(α)=F_{pq}(\alpha)=Fpq​(α), stochastic rows, reward R:Q→RR:Q\to\mathbb RR:Q→R and discount 0≤γ<10\le\gamma<10≤γ<1. VM,πV_{M,\pi}VM,π​ is defined as the convergent series ∑tγtPπtR\sum_t\gamma^tP_\pi^tR∑t​γtPπt​R, not as a solution of (2). Rewards of the BMDP are tight, as the paper assumes from footnote 3 on; reward intervals are not formalized. Members of M↕M_\updownarrowM↕​ form a subtype of exact MDPs with the BMDP's RRR and γ\gammaγ. The minima and maxima of Definition 3 and of (25)–(26) are the real infimum and supremum over that subtype, which is nonempty and on which values are bounded, so no junk value enters. Intervals are pairs (lower, upper); the orders (17) are spelled out. Policies are deterministic stationary maps Q→AQ\to AQ→A, the paper's Π\PiΠ. An ordering of QQQ is a bijection Fin |Q| ≃ Q, and the index rrr of Definition 1 is the largest index at which expression (9) does not exceed 1 (the page's phrase admits ties; only the largest index keeps the remaining mass inside its interval). Definition 8 is read as V↕opt=V↕πoptV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}=V_\updownarrow{}_{\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}}V↕​opt​=V↕​πopt​​ for an optimistically optimal πopt\pi_{\mathrm{opt}}πopt​, so the goal is quantified over all optimistically (pessimistically) optimal policies; Theorem 8 is the milestone that makes this quantification non-vacuous. Lemma 3 is stated as in the Appendix (p. 36): part (d) concerns π4=π1⊕pesπ2\pi_4=\pi_1\oplus_{\mathrm{pes}}\pi_2π4​=π1​⊕pes​π2​, where p. 17 misprints π3\pi_3π3​.

A formalization in which members carry their own discount, rows need not sum to one, the minima range over all functions Q→A→Q→RQ\to A\to Q\to\mathbb RQ→A→Q→R, or V↕optV_\updownarrow{}_{\mathrm{opt}}V↕​opt​ is the componentwise supremum over policies would make several statements false or trivial; each is ruled out above.

Contributions welcome beyond proofs of the milestones: a reusable theory of discounted policy evaluation for finite MDPs (the series representation, the fixed-point characterization, monotonicity of VIM,πVI_{M,\pi}VIM,π​), which other missions on finite MDPs can import.

Selected references

  • R. Givan, S. Leach, T. Dean, Bounded-parameter Markov decision processes, Artificial Intelligence 122 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1016/S0004-3702(00)00047-3
  • A. Nilim, L. El Ghaoui, Robust control of Markov decision processes with uncertain transition matrices, Operations Research 53(5), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0216
  • G. Iyengar, Robust dynamic programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • A. Strehl, M. Littman, An analysis of model-based interval estimation for Markov decision processes, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 74(8), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcss.2007.08.009
  • M. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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CombinatoricsProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography 4: A Random Subset Sum of l Uniform Elements of a Finite Abelian Group Is on Average Within √(|G|/2^l) of UniformResearch Paper

Motivation

Regev's On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography (J. ACM 56(6), 2009, Article 34; doi:10.1145/1568318.1568324) introduced the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem and built a public-key cryptosystem on it. The source for this mission is that published J. ACM article. The paper's main theorem, a quantum reduction from worst-case lattice problems to LWE, is outside this series; this mission formalizes a self-contained piece of finite combinatorics from §5.

In the cryptosystem the public key is a list of mmm LWE samples, and a bit is encrypted by adding up a uniformly random subset of them. Semantic security rests on one fact: if the public key were truly uniform, the sum of a random subset of it would be close to uniform, so the ciphertext would carry no information about the bit. Claim 5.3 (p. 34:36) makes this precise for an arbitrary finite abelian group GGG. It is a special case of the leftover hash lemma of Impagliazzo and Zuckerman (1989), in which the family of functions b↦∑ibigib \mapsto \sum_i b_i g_ib↦∑i​bi​gi​ indexed by g∈Glg \in G^lg∈Gl is a universal hash family. Variants of the same statement appear in the security proofs of most lattice-based encryption schemes that use random subset sums, including the dual-Regev and GPV-style constructions.

Setting

Let GGG be a finite abelian group, written additively, with ∣G∣|G|∣G∣ elements, and let l≥0l \ge 0l≥0 be an integer. For g=(g1,…,gl)∈Glg = (g_1, \dots, g_l) \in G^lg=(g1​,…,gl​)∈Gl and b=(b1,…,bl)∈{0,1}lb = (b_1, \dots, b_l) \in \{0,1\}^lb=(b1​,…,bl​)∈{0,1}l the subset sum ∑ibigi\sum_i b_i g_i∑i​bi​gi​ is the sum of the gig_igi​ with bi=1b_i = 1bi​=1 (the empty subset gives 000). The distribution of the sum of a uniformly random subset of g1,…,glg_1, \dots, g_lg1​,…,gl​ is

Pg(h)=12l ∣{ b∈{0,1}l∣∑ibigi=h }∣,h∈G.P_g(h) = \frac{1}{2^l}\,\bigl|\{\, b \in \{0,1\}^l \mid \textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = h \,\}\bigr|, \qquad h \in G.Pg​(h)=2l1​​{b∈{0,1}l∣∑i​bi​gi​=h}​,h∈G.

The paper defines the statistical distance of two densities as ∫∣φ1−φ2∣\int |\varphi_1 - \varphi_2|∫∣φ1​−φ2​∣, with range [0,2][0,2][0,2], and notes that the same definition applies to discrete random variables (p. 34:14). The distance of PgP_gPg​ from the uniform distribution on GGG is therefore

Δ(g)=∑h∈G∣Pg(h)−1∣G∣∣,\Delta(g) = \sum_{h \in G} \Bigl| P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|} \Bigr|,Δ(g)=h∈G∑​​Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​​,

with no factor 12\tfrac1221​. Expectations and probabilities over ggg refer to a uniform choice of g1,…,gl∈Gg_1, \dots, g_l \in Gg1​,…,gl​∈G, that is, the uniform distribution on all ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l tuples, repetitions allowed: Expg[F(g)]=∣G∣−l∑g∈GlF(g)\mathrm{Exp}_g[F(g)] = |G|^{-l}\sum_{g \in G^l} F(g)Expg​[F(g)]=∣G∣−l∑g∈Gl​F(g).

In Lean these objects are RegevLWE.SubsetSum.subsetSum, P, statDistUniform and expectG.

Formalization targets

Goal: Claim 5.3

Expg[Δ(g)]≤∣G∣2landPr⁡g[Δ(g)>∣G∣/2l4]≤∣G∣2l4.\mathop{\mathrm{Exp}}_g\bigl[\Delta(g)\bigr] \le \sqrt{\frac{|G|}{2^l}} \qquad\text{and}\qquad \Pr_g\Bigl[\Delta(g) > \sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}\Bigr] \le \sqrt[4]{\frac{|G|}{2^l}}.Expg​[Δ(g)]≤2l∣G∣​​andgPr​[Δ(g)>4∣G∣/2l​]≤42l∣G∣​​.

Both sentences of the claim are in the goal. The second is what the security proof (Lemma 5.4, p. 34:37) uses: for all but a ∣G∣/2l4\sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}4∣G∣/2l​ fraction of public keys, the random subset sum is within ∣G∣/2l4\sqrt[4]{|G|/2^l}4∣G∣/2l​ of uniform. The constants are exactly as printed.

Milestones

  1. The ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm as a collision probability (p. 34:36). For every ggg, with b,b′b, b'b,b′ independent and uniform in {0,1}l\{0,1\}^l{0,1}l,
∑hPg(h)2=Pr⁡b,b′[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]≤12l+Pr⁡b,b′[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi∣b≠b′].\sum_{h} P_g(h)^2 = \Pr_{b,b'}\Bigl[\textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i\Bigr] \le \frac{1}{2^l} + \Pr_{b,b'}\Bigl[\textstyle\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i \Bigm| b \neq b'\Bigr].h∑​Pg​(h)2=b,b′Pr​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]≤2l1​+Prb,b′​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​​b=b′].
  1. Collisions of distinct subsets (p. 34:37). For any b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′, Pr⁡g[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]=1/∣G∣\Pr_g[\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i] = 1/|G|Prg​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]=1/∣G∣.
  2. Expected ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norm (p. 34:37). Expg[∑hPg(h)2]≤1/2l+1/∣G∣\mathrm{Exp}_g[\sum_h P_g(h)^2] \le 1/2^l + 1/|G|Expg​[∑h​Pg​(h)2]≤1/2l+1/∣G∣.
  3. Cauchy–Schwarz and the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ identity (p. 34:37), pointwise in ggg:
∑h∣Pg(h)−1∣G∣∣≤∣G∣1/2(∑h(Pg(h)−1∣G∣)2)1/2,∑h(Pg(h)−1∣G∣)2=∑hPg(h)2−1∣G∣.\sum_h \Bigl|P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr| \le |G|^{1/2}\Bigl(\sum_h \Bigl(P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr)^2\Bigr)^{1/2}, \qquad \sum_h \Bigl(P_g(h) - \frac{1}{|G|}\Bigr)^2 = \sum_h P_g(h)^2 - \frac{1}{|G|}.h∑​​Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​​≤∣G∣1/2(h∑​(Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​)2)1/2,h∑​(Pg​(h)−∣G∣1​)2=h∑​Pg​(h)2−∣G∣1​.

Significance

The result. Claim 5.3 is the step in the security proof of Regev's cryptosystem that removes the public key from the picture: once the key is replaced by uniform samples (by the LWE assumption), the claim shows that an encryption is statistically close to uniform, independently of the encrypted bit. The parameter choice m≥(1+ϵ)(n+1)log⁡pm \ge (1+\epsilon)(n+1)\log pm≥(1+ϵ)(n+1)logp of Lemma 5.4 is exactly what makes ∣G∣/2m|G|/2^m∣G∣/2m negligible for G=Zpn×ZpG = \mathbb{Z}_p^n \times \mathbb{Z}_pG=Zpn​×Zp​. Without the claim the cryptosystem would have a hardness assumption but no reduction from it.

Formalizing it. The claim is proved, with a complete argument in the paper; nothing here is open. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of this statement, or of the leftover hash lemma for subset-sum hash families over a general finite abelian group, exists in Mathlib or on the platform. A formal proof gives a reusable, constant-exact statement of the subset-sum leftover hash lemma with the paper's normalization of statistical distance. The four milestones are standard facts about finite averages and collision probabilities that recur in many cryptographic security proofs.

Difficulty

There is no deep step; the work is in organizing finite counting arguments without loss. Two points need care. The collision fact Pr⁡g[∑ibigi=∑ibi′gi]=1/∣G∣\Pr_g[\sum_i b_i g_i = \sum_i b'_i g_i] = 1/|G|Prg​[∑i​bi​gi​=∑i​bi′​gi​]=1/∣G∣ holds for every pair b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′ only because the coefficients bi−bi′b_i - b'_ibi​−bi′​ lie in {−1,0,1}\{-1, 0, 1\}{−1,0,1}: for a general linear form over a group with torsion, a nonzero coefficient vector need not give a uniformly distributed sum, so an argument that treats the coefficients as arbitrary integers fails. And passing from the ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound to the expected ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ distance requires the exchange of expectation and square root in the right direction (concavity), which is easy to misapply. The bound must hold for every finite abelian group and every lll, including l=0l = 0l=0 and ∣G∣=1|G| = 1∣G∣=1, with no asymptotic slack.

Formalization scope

  • GGG is any type with [AddCommGroup G] [Fintype G] [DecidableEq G]; l:Nl : ℕl:N, and l=0l = 0l=0 is allowed (then PgP_gPg​ is the point mass at 000 and the claim holds). No hypothesis is added to the paper's statement: ∣G∣≥1|G| \ge 1∣G∣≥1 holds for every group.
  • {0,1}l\{0,1\}^l{0,1}l is encoded as Fin l → Bool; ggg ranges over all functions Fin l → G, so the uniform choice of ggg is over all ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l tuples with repetition, not over lll-element subsets of GGG.
  • Every expectation and probability is an exact finite average with real values: Expg[F]=∣G∣−l∑gF(g)\mathrm{Exp}_g[F] = |G|^{-l}\sum_g F(g)Expg​[F]=∣G∣−l∑g​F(g), and Pr⁡g[E]\Pr_g[E]Prg​[E] is the number of tuples satisfying EEE divided by ∣G∣l|G|^l∣G∣l. Probabilities over (b,b′)(b, b')(b,b′) are counts over the (2l)2(2^l)^2(2l)2 pairs; the conditional probability given b≠b′b \neq b'b=b′ divides by (2l)2−2l(2^l)^2 - 2^l(2l)2−2l. At l=0l = 0l=0 the paper's conditional probability is undefined; Lean's convention 0/0=00/0 = 00/0=0 makes milestone 1 read 1≤11 \le 11≤1 there, which is consistent with the paper.
  • The statistical distance is ∑h∣Pg(h)−1/∣G∣∣\sum_h |P_g(h) - 1/|G||∑h​∣Pg​(h)−1/∣G∣∣, without 12\tfrac1221​. A formalization with the 12\tfrac1221​-normalized total variation distance would state a weaker result (half the bound) and is excluded. "More than" in the second sentence is strict, "at most" is ≤\le≤. The fourth root is Real.sqrt (Real.sqrt x).
  • Milestone 4 states only the first two steps of the paper's final chain (the Cauchy–Schwarz inequality and the identity), pointwise in ggg; the remaining two steps (Jensen for the square root and the substitution of milestone 3) are part of the goal. Its milestone text quotes the whole chain for context.
  • No definitions beyond the four above are needed, and no measure theory. Proofs of the milestones, and alternative proofs of the goal (for instance via Fourier analysis on GGG), are welcome.

Selected references

  • O. Regev, On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography, Journal of the ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009. doi:10.1145/1568318.1568324
  • R. Impagliazzo and D. Zuckerman, How to Recycle Random Bits, Proc. 30th IEEE FOCS, 248–253, 1989. doi:10.1109/SFCS.1989.63486
  • J. Håstad, R. Impagliazzo, L. A. Levin and M. Luby, A Pseudorandom Generator from any One-way Function, SIAM Journal on Computing 28(4), 1364–1396, 1999. doi:10.1137/S0097539793244708
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Control TheoryProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Backward-Forward Stochastic Differential Equations 4: A Nonsingular Linear Backward-Forward System with Lipschitz Constant 1 Has No Solution on the Horizon T = π/2Research Paper

Motivation

A backward stochastic equation determines its current value from a conditional expectation of future values. A forward equation determines its current value from past values. Coupling the two makes existence depend on more than integrability of the data: the feedback between the past and future can prevent a solution. Antonelli's 1993 paper studies this interaction in an L1L^1L1 space for equations driven by bounded variation processes, motivated in part by recursively defined stochastic utility in finance (Antonelli 1993, pp. 777–778).

The paper first gives an existence and uniqueness condition for a coupled system. It then tests the size of that condition with two examples. The first uses a singular coefficient matrix; the second, targeted here, uses a nonsingular linear coupling. This distinction matters because the failure of existence in the first example could otherwise be attributed to the singular matrix. The second example places the obstruction at a particular time horizon while retaining a linear map with Lipschitz constant one (Antonelli 1993, pp. 791–792).

Setting

Fix a complete probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) with a right-continuous filtration (Ft)0≤t≤T(\mathcal F_t)_{0\le t\le T}(Ft​)0≤t≤T​, where T>0T>0T>0. At time ttt, Ft\mathcal F_tFt​ describes the information available. Let J0J_0J0​ be an integrable, strictly positive, F0\mathcal F_0F0​-measurable random variable. Let YYY be a strictly positive, bounded, FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable random variable. Both positivity statements are almost sure.

The unknowns are real-valued stochastic processes UtU_tUt​ and VtV_tVt​. The forward equation starts from J0J_0J0​ and accumulates VVV:

Ut=J0+∫0tVs ds.U_t=J_0+\int_0^t V_s\,ds.Ut​=J0​+∫0t​Vs​ds.

The backward equation sets VtV_tVt​ equal to the conditional mean, given current information, of a future integral and the terminal input:

Vt=E ⁣[∫tTUs ds+Y∣Ft].V_t=\mathbb E\!\left[\int_t^T U_s\,ds+Y\mid\mathcal F_t\right].Vt​=E[∫tT​Us​ds+Y∣Ft​].

These are equations (3.10)–(3.11) of the paper. Their coefficient functions are f(u,v)=vf(u,v)=vf(u,v)=v and g(u,v)=ug(u,v)=ug(u,v)=u, each with Lipschitz constant 111 for the paper's sum norm on pairs. The associated linear coefficient matrix is nonsingular. A solution is sought in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) for each component: the expected time integral of its absolute value is finite, and the equations hold in that space. This is the same integrability regime used to state the coupled system in §3 (Antonelli 1993, p. 785).

The terminal value UTU_TUT​ is the random variable J0+∫0TVs dsJ_0+\int_0^T V_s\,dsJ0​+∫0T​Vs​ds. Conditional-expectation processes in the intermediate identities are denoted Mt=E[UT∣Ft]M_t=\mathbb E[U_T\mid\mathcal F_t]Mt​=E[UT​∣Ft​] and Ytc=E[Y∣Ft]Y_t^{\mathrm c}=\mathbb E[Y\mid\mathcal F_t]Ytc​=E[Y∣Ft​]. Jointly measurable versions are used when these processes appear inside time integrals.

Formalization targets

Conditional-expectation identity

For any positive horizon, the paper derives an equation for VVV in terms of UTU_TUT​, a weighted future integral of VVV, and YYY. With the sign consistent with the preceding display, the identity is

Vt=(T−t)Mt−E ⁣[∫tT(r−t)Vr dr∣Ft]+Ytc.V_t=(T-t)M_t-\mathbb E\!\left[\int_t^T(r-t)V_r\,dr\mid\mathcal F_t\right]+Y_t^{\mathrm c}.Vt​=(T−t)Mt​−E[∫tT​(r−t)Vr​dr∣Ft​]+Ytc​.

The printed equation (3.12) places YYY inside the negative conditional expectation. That is inconsistent with both the preceding display and the next closed form; the formal statement uses the consistent sign and records the discrepancy (Antonelli 1993, p. 792).

Closed forms and mean identity

The remaining intermediate targets are the paper's closed form for VVV, equation (3.13) for UUU, and the terminal-mean relation:

Vt=Mtsin⁡(T−t)+Ytccos⁡(T−t),V_t=M_t\sin(T-t)+Y_t^{\mathrm c}\cos(T-t),Vt​=Mt​sin(T−t)+Ytc​cos(T−t), Ut=J0+∫0tMssin⁡(T−s) ds+∫0tYsccos⁡(T−s) ds,U_t=J_0+\int_0^t M_s\sin(T-s)\,ds+\int_0^t Y_s^{\mathrm c}\cos(T-s)\,ds,Ut​=J0​+∫0t​Ms​sin(T−s)ds+∫0t​Ysc​cos(T−s)ds, E[UT]cos⁡T=E[J0]+E[Y]sin⁡T.\mathbb E[U_T]\cos T=\mathbb E[J_0]+\mathbb E[Y]\sin T.E[UT​]cosT=E[J0​]+E[Y]sinT.

The last identity is stated without division, so it also has meaning when cos⁡T=0\cos T=0cosT=0. These identities give the milestones in the order they occur on p. 792.

Main result

At the specific horizon T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2, the coupled equations have no L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) solution:

T=π2⟹∄ (U,V)∈L1(dt⊗dP)2 satisfying (3.10)–(3.11).T=\frac{\pi}{2}\quad\Longrightarrow\quad \nexists\,(U,V)\in L^1(dt\otimes dP)^2\text{ satisfying (3.10)–(3.11)}.T=2π​⟹∄(U,V)∈L1(dt⊗dP)2 satisfying (3.10)–(3.11).

Strict positivity makes the right side of the mean identity positive, while its left side vanishes. The statement is a nonexistence result for the same broad solution class as the paper, rather than a claim about a narrower pathwise class.

Significance

Example 2 shows that a nonsingular coupling can still lose existence at a finite horizon. Thus the obstruction exhibited by the earlier singular example is not explained by singularity alone. The example also marks a limitation of replacing the paper's smallness condition with the assumption that the Lipschitz constant is merely finite. At T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2 and k=1k=1k=1, the product kTkTkT exceeds one, as the paper notes (Antonelli 1993, p. 791).

A completed formalization would connect conditional expectations, jointly measurable time-indexed versions, and integration in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP) in a reusable Lean development. The paper proves the mathematical result. This mission asks for machine-checked statements and proofs of its intermediate identities and nonexistence conclusion; it does not claim that the result is an open mathematical problem.

Difficulty

The main challenge is that the equations are equalities of integrable processes, not pointwise equalities at every time and outcome. A value assigned to UTU_TUT​ by an arbitrary representative of an L1L^1L1 class is uncontrolled, so the terminal value must instead be reconstructed from the forward integral. Conditional expectations are defined only up to almost-sure equality at each time, yet the subsequent formulas integrate their time-indexed versions. This requires a jointly measurable version and careful movement between almost-sure statements at fixed times and dt⊗dPdt\otimes dPdt⊗dP statements.

There is also a printed sign inconsistency in (3.12). Propagating that sign would contradict the later sine-cosine formula. Finally, the paper's quotient formula for E[UT]\mathbb E[U_T]E[UT​] cannot be used at T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2, because its denominator vanishes there. The undivided mean identity is the meaningful target at the critical horizon.

Formalization scope

Time is represented by R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​, and all integrals over time use (s,t](s,t](s,t]; for Lebesgue measure this agrees with the paper's ordinary time integrals. The ambient probability measure is a probability measure, and the filtration satisfies right continuity and completion at time zero. The two unknown processes are jointly measurable and have finite lower-integral L1L^1L1 norms. A solution uses a jointly measurable version of the conditional-expectation process, with each conditional-expectation argument explicitly integrable. The terminal UTU_TUT​ is defined from J0J_0J0​ and VVV, independently of an arbitrary endpoint value of UUU.

The source calls J0J_0J0​ and YYY positive; the formalization reads this as strict positivity almost surely, because allowing both to vanish admits the zero solution. J0J_0J0​ is integrable as required by the standing assumption on JJJ in §3; YYY remains bounded as Example 2 states. The four intermediate identities are stated for general T>0T>0T>0, while only the main result fixes T=π/2T=\pi/2T=π/2. Their process equalities hold in L1(dt⊗dP)L^1(dt\otimes dP)L1(dt⊗dP), and the terminal identity holds almost surely. This keeps the target from becoming true simply because endpoint representatives can be chosen freely.

The needed development includes product measurability, conditional expectation, Fubini's theorem, time integration, and the trigonometric identities in the closed form. The L1L^1L1 and version definitions can be reused for other coupled systems with deterministic time integrators. Contributions that establish the intermediate identities under the stated integrability assumptions, or develop the corresponding measurable-version tools, support the goal directly.

Selected references

  • Fabio Antonelli, Backward-forward stochastic differential equations, Annals of Applied Probability 3(3), 777–793, 1993. DOI: 10.1214/aoap/1177005363.
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A D.C. Optimization Algorithm for Solving the Trust-Region Subproblem IV: A Kuhn–Tucker Point with λ* + λ₁ < 0 Gives an Explicit Feasible Restart Point x̄ with f(x̄) < f(x*)Research Paper

Motivation

The trust-region subproblem — minimizing a quadratic, possibly nonconvex, over a Euclidean ball — is the inner step of every trust-region method for nonlinear optimization, and it also appears in regularized least squares and in the analysis of quadratic constraints. It is one of the few nonconvex problems whose global minimizers are characterized exactly: by the classical results of Moré and Sorensen (1983) and Gay (1981), a feasible point is a global solution if and only if it satisfies the Kuhn–Tucker conditions with a multiplier that makes the shifted matrix positive semidefinite.

Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An (SIAM J. Optim. 8 (1998)) solve the problem with DCA, a descent method for difference-of-convex programs. DCA converges to Kuhn–Tucker points, and a Kuhn–Tucker point need not be a global solution. Section 4.2 of the paper closes this gap: it tests a Kuhn–Tucker point for global optimality with one eigenvalue computation, and when the test fails it writes down, explicitly, a feasible point with strictly smaller objective value from which DCA can be restarted. The resulting algorithm GDCA alternates DCA runs and restarts. This mission formalizes that restart construction.

Setting

Let AAA be a real symmetric n×nn\times nn×n matrix, b∈Rnb\in\mathbb R^nb∈Rn and r>0r>0r>0. Write ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ for the Euclidean inner product and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ for its norm. The trust-region subproblem (Q1) is

min⁡{ f(x)=12⟨x,Ax⟩+⟨b,x⟩  :  ∥x∥≤r }.\min\Bigl\{\,f(x)=\tfrac12\langle x,Ax\rangle+\langle b,x\rangle \;:\; \|x\|\le r\,\Bigr\}.min{f(x)=21​⟨x,Ax⟩+⟨b,x⟩:∥x∥≤r}.

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a Kuhn–Tucker point of (Q1) with multiplier λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ when

λ∗≥0,(A+λ∗I)x∗=−b,λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0,∥x∗∥≤r.\lambda^*\ge0,\qquad (A+\lambda^*I)x^*=-b,\qquad \lambda^*(\|x^*\|-r)=0,\qquad \|x^*\|\le r .λ∗≥0,(A+λ∗I)x∗=−b,λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0,∥x∗∥≤r.

In Lean, Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), AAA is a self-adjoint continuous linear operator on it, fff is quad A b, and the four conditions are IsKKT A b r xs lamStar.

Let (λ1,u)(\lambda_1,u)(λ1​,u) be an eigenpair of AAA: u≠0u\ne0u=0 and Au=λ1uAu=\lambda_1uAu=λ1​u. If λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0 then

uT(A+λ∗I)u=(λ∗+λ1) uTu<0,u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u=(\lambda^*+\lambda_1)\,u^Tu<0,uT(A+λ∗I)u=(λ∗+λ1​)uTu<0,

so uuu is a direction of negative curvature of the shifted matrix. For a direction w≠0w\ne0w=0 and ∥x∗∥≤r\|x^*\|\le r∥x∗∥≤r, the restart step γ\gammaγ of (23) is the nonzero root of ∥w∥2γ2+2wTx∗γ+∥x∗∥2−r2=0\|w\|^2\gamma^2+2w^Tx^*\gamma+\|x^*\|^2-r^2=0∥w∥2γ2+2wTx∗γ+∥x∗∥2−r2=0, so that x∗+γwx^*+\gamma wx∗+γw lies on the sphere ∥x∥=r\|x\|=r∥x∥=r (Lean: restartGamma w xs r s, with a sign s=±1s=\pm1s=±1 choosing between the two roots when ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r).

Formalization targets

Goal: a Kuhn–Tucker point that fails the eigenvalue test can be improved

IsKKT(x∗,λ∗),    Au=λ1u,  u≠0,    λ∗+λ1<0  ⟹  ∃ xˉ: ∥xˉ∥≤r,  f(xˉ)<f(x∗).\text{IsKKT}(x^*,\lambda^*),\;\; Au=\lambda_1u,\;u\ne0,\;\; \lambda^*+\lambda_1<0 \;\Longrightarrow\; \exists\,\bar x:\ \|\bar x\|\le r,\ \ f(\bar x)<f(x^*).IsKKT(x∗,λ∗),Au=λ1​u,u=0,λ∗+λ1​<0⟹∃xˉ: ∥xˉ∥≤r,  f(xˉ)<f(x∗).

This is the "Summing up" claim of §4.2 (p. 493). It asserts only the existence of a better feasible point; the explicit construction is spread over the milestones.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. The multiplier (p. 491): λ∗=(−⟨x∗,Ax∗⟩−⟨x∗,b⟩)/r2\lambda^*=(-\langle x^*,Ax^*\rangle-\langle x^*,b\rangle)/r^2λ∗=(−⟨x∗,Ax∗⟩−⟨x∗,b⟩)/r2.
  2. Lemma 4.2 (p. 492): if (A+μI)y=−b(A+\mu I)y=-b(A+μI)y=−b, then f(x)=f(y)−μ2(∥x∥2−∥y∥2)+12⟨x−y,(A+μI)(x−y)⟩f(x)=f(y)-\frac\mu2(\|x\|^2-\|y\|^2)+\frac12\langle x-y,(A+\mu I)(x-y)\ranglef(x)=f(y)−2μ​(∥x∥2−∥y∥2)+21​⟨x−y,(A+μI)(x−y)⟩ for all xxx.
  3. Case a) (p. 492): if ⟨b,x∗⟩>0\langle b,x^*\rangle>0⟨b,x∗⟩>0, then xˉ=−x∗\bar x=-x^*xˉ=−x∗ is feasible and f(xˉ)=f(x∗)−2⟨b,x∗⟩<f(x∗)f(\bar x)=f(x^*)-2\langle b,x^*\rangle<f(x^*)f(xˉ)=f(x∗)−2⟨b,x∗⟩<f(x∗).
  4. Case (b.1) (p. 492): if wT(A+λ∗I)w<0w^T(A+\lambda^*I)w<0wT(A+λ∗I)w<0 and either ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r, or ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r and wTx∗≠0w^Tx^*\ne0wTx∗=0, then xˉ=x∗+γw\bar x=x^*+\gamma wxˉ=x∗+γw with γ\gammaγ from (23) satisfies γ≠0\gamma\ne0γ=0, ∥xˉ∥=r\|\bar x\|=r∥xˉ∥=r and f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+γ22⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩<f(x∗)f(\bar x)=f(x^*)+\frac{\gamma^2}2\langle w,(A+\lambda^*I)w\rangle<f(x^*)f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+2γ2​⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩<f(x∗).
  5. Case (b.2), bTx∗=0b^Tx^*=0bTx∗=0 (p. 493): if ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r, uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0 and uT(A+λ∗I)u<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u<0uT(A+λ∗I)u<0, then v=u+τx∗v=u+\tau x^*v=u+τx∗ has vTx∗≠0v^Tx^*\ne0vTx∗=0 and vT(A+λ∗I)v<0v^T(A+\lambda^*I)v<0vT(A+λ∗I)v<0 for all τ<0\tau<0τ<0 when bTu≤0b^Tu\le0bTu≤0, and for uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)<τ<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/(2b^Tu)<\tau<0uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)<τ<0 when bTu>0b^Tu>0bTu>0.
  6. Case (b.2), bTx∗<0b^Tx^*<0bTx∗<0 (p. 493): the same conclusion for τ1<τ<0\tau_1<\tau<0τ1​<τ<0, where τ1<0\tau_1<0τ1​<0 is the smallest root of −bTx∗τ2−2bTu τ+uT(A+λ∗I)u-b^Tx^*\tau^2-2b^Tu\,\tau+u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u−bTx∗τ2−2bTuτ+uT(A+λ∗I)u.

A companion item records the paper's remark that, for ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r, the root of (23) with the larger γ2\gamma^2γ2 gives the smaller f(xˉ)f(\bar x)f(xˉ).

Significance

The restart claim turns a local method into a global one. Combined with the convergence of DCA to Kuhn–Tucker points (Theorem 4.1 of the paper) and the global-optimality characterization of (Q1), it shows that each DCA run either ends at a certified global solution or yields a feasible point that strictly improves on it, with the improvement given in closed form from one eigenvector. The construction is elementary, but its case analysis — the sign of ⟨b,x∗⟩\langle b,x^*\rangle⟨b,x∗⟩, whether the constraint is active, whether the eigenvector is orthogonal to x∗x^*x∗ — is exactly where an informal argument can go wrong, and the printed (b.2) bounds contain two errors (see Formalization scope).

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has a machine-checked proof. The mission produces a checked version of the case analysis with the corrected constants, and reusable facts about quadratics on the Euclidean ball (Lemma 4.2, the step to the sphere along a negative-curvature direction) that apply to any trust-region method.

Difficulty

The obvious argument — move from x∗x^*x∗ along the negative-curvature eigenvector uuu until the boundary is reached — fails in one case. When ∥x∗∥=r\|x^*\|=r∥x∗∥=r and uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0, the line x∗+γux^*+\gamma ux∗+γu leaves the ball for every γ≠0\gamma\ne0γ=0, so no step along uuu is feasible. The paper repairs this by tilting uuu towards x∗x^*x∗, and the tilt must keep the curvature negative while making the direction non-orthogonal to x∗x^*x∗; the admissible range of the tilt depends on the signs of bTx∗b^Tx^*bTx∗ and bTub^TubTu. A second subtlety is that the identity f(xˉ)=f(x∗)+γ22⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩f(\bar x)=f(x^*)+\frac{\gamma^2}{2}\langle w,(A+\lambda^*I)w\ranglef(xˉ)=f(x∗)+2γ2​⟨w,(A+λ∗I)w⟩ needs the term λ∗(∥xˉ∥2−∥x∗∥2)\lambda^*(\|\bar x\|^2-\|x^*\|^2)λ∗(∥xˉ∥2−∥x∗∥2) of Lemma 4.2 to vanish, which uses complementarity when ∥x∗∥<r\|x^*\|<r∥x∗∥<r and ∥xˉ∥=r\|\bar x\|=r∥xˉ∥=r when the constraint is active.

Formalization scope

All statements live in namespace TaoAnDCA.Restart on EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), with AAA a continuous linear operator and symmetry the hypothesis IsSelfAdjoint A; r>0r>0r>0 throughout. The objective quad is the bare quadratic, with feasibility ∥x∥≤r\|x\|\le r∥x∥≤r stated separately.

Conventions and disclosed deviations from the page:

  • The goal assumes an arbitrary eigenpair with λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0 and an arbitrary Kuhn–Tucker point. The page has "the smallest eigenvalue" and "a point produced by the DCA"; neither is used, so the stated theorem is stronger.
  • Case (b.1) is stated for a general direction www of negative curvature, since (b.2) re-enters it with a vector that is not an eigenvector; the heading "⟨b,x∗⟩≤0\langle b,x^*\rangle\le0⟨b,x∗⟩≤0" of case b) is not assumed because the computation does not use it.
  • Cases (b.2) take a general uuu with uT(A+λ∗I)u<0u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u<0uT(A+λ∗I)u<0; for an eigenvector uuu with uTx∗=0u^Tx^*=0uTx∗=0 one has bTu=0b^Tu=0bTu=0, which would make the bTu>0b^Tu>0bTu>0 branch vacuous.
  • The page's bound uT(A+λ∗I)u/bTuu^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/b^TuuT(A+λ∗I)u/bTu in the first (b.2) bullet lacks a factor 2 and is false for general uuu; the Lean uses uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu)u^T(A+\lambda^*I)u/(2b^Tu)uT(A+λ∗I)u/(2bTu). The page's formula for τ1\tau_1τ1​ has the sign of bTub^TubTu reversed; the Lean uses the smallest root, as the page's words define it. Both printed versions agree with the corrected ones when bTu=0b^Tu=0bTu=0.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal's hypothesis is the eigenvalue test λ∗+λ1<0\lambda^*+\lambda_1<0λ∗+λ1​<0, never "x∗x^*x∗ is not a global solution", which would make the conclusion a restatement of the hypothesis.

No infrastructure beyond Mathlib's inner product spaces is needed. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and of the goal from them.

Selected references

  • Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An, A d.c. optimization algorithm for solving the trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim. 8(2):476–505, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623494274313
  • J. J. Moré and D. C. Sorensen, Computing a trust region step, SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 4(3):553–572, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/0904038
  • D. M. Gay, Computing optimal locally constrained steps, SIAM J. Sci. Stat. Comput. 2(2):186–197, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1137/0902016
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models 3: If Demand Increases in the Convex Order, the Optimal Lost-Sales Cost f̄_t(v; φ) Is Nondecreasing in φResearch Paper

Motivation

In the periodic-review inventory model with lost sales, demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backordered. With a positive order lead time LLL the state of the system is a vector of length LLL: on-hand stock plus the L−1L-1L−1 orders still in the pipeline. This model is standard in retail, where a customer facing an empty shelf buys elsewhere. Its optimal policy is not a base-stock policy and depends on the whole pipeline vector, which makes it much harder to analyse than the backorder model.

A basic question for any stochastic inventory model is how its optimal cost responds to uncertainty in demand. For the backorder model it is classical that more variable demand costs more (Song 1994). Zipkin's paper (Oper. Res. 56(4), 2008, 937–944) recasts the lost-sales model in a transformed state in which the optimal cost functions are L♮^\natural♮-convex. Its §5 uses this structure to prove the lost-sales analogue: if demand becomes more variable in the convex order, the optimal cost does not decrease. The paper presents this as new in the lost-sales setting.

Timeline of the structural results the mission rests on:

  • 1958: Karlin and Scarf analyse the lost-sales model with lead time one and show that the optimal order decreases in the on-hand stock, with sensitivity less than one.
  • 1969: Morton extends these monotonicity and bounded-sensitivity properties to general lead times and derives bounds on the optimal order.
  • 2008: Zipkin reproves these properties through L♮^\natural♮-convexity in the transformed state (Theorem 4) and adds the parametric result of §5 (Theorem 11).

Setting

The order lead time is a positive integer LLL. The cost factors are the unit procurement cost ccc, the unit holding cost h^\hat hh^, the unit lost-sales penalty ppp and the discount factor γ\gammaγ. Demands in different periods are independent and nonnegative, with a common law. The paper treats states and orders as continuous.

Transformed state. A state is a vector v=(v0,…,vL−1)v=(v_0,\dots,v_{L-1})v=(v0​,…,vL−1​), where vlv_lvl​ is the stock on hand plus all orders due to arrive lll or more periods hence, and vL=0v_L=0vL​=0 by convention. So v0v_0v0​ is the inventory position and v0−v1v_0-v_1v0​−v1​ is the stock on hand. The state space is

V={v∈RL: v0≥v1≥⋯≥vL−1≥0}.V=\{v\in\mathbb R^L:\ v_0\ge v_1\ge\cdots\ge v_{L-1}\ge0\}.V={v∈RL: v0​≥v1​≥⋯≥vL−1​≥0}.

The action is ζ=−z≤0\zeta=-z\le0ζ=−z≤0, where z≥0z\ge0z≥0 is the order quantity, and eee is the all-ones vector. After demand ddd, the next state is

v+=([v0−v1−d]++v1, v2, …, vL−1, 0)−ζe.v_+=\big([v_0-v_1-d]^++v_1,\ v_2,\ \dots,\ v_{L-1},\ 0\big)-\zeta e.v+​=([v0​−v1​−d]++v1​, v2​, …, vL−1​, 0)−ζe.

Costs and recursion. The end-of-period holding and penalty cost is q^(u)=h^u++pu−\hat q(u)=\hat hu^++pu^-q^​(u)=h^u++pu−, and its expectation given on-hand stock yyy is q^0(y)=E[q^(y−d)]\hat q^0(y)=E[\hat q(y-d)]q^​0(y)=E[q^​(y−d)]. The optimal cost functions satisfy

gˉt(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^0(v0−v1)+γE[fˉt+1(v+)],fˉt(v)=min⁡ζ≤0gˉt(v,ζ),\bar g_t(v,\zeta)=-\gamma^Lc\zeta+\hat q^0(v_0-v_1)+\gamma E[\bar f_{t+1}(v_+)],\qquad \bar f_t(v)=\min_{\zeta\le0}\bar g_t(v,\zeta),gˉ​t​(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^​0(v0​−v1​)+γE[fˉ​t+1​(v+​)],fˉ​t​(v)=ζ≤0min​gˉ​t​(v,ζ),

with fˉT+L+1=0\bar f_{T+L+1}=0fˉ​T+L+1​=0. This is the paper's recursion (1)–(2), written in the state vvv.

Program (4). Fix a demand ddd. Choosing the next stock level v+v_+v+​, with −d≤v+−v0≤0-d\le v_+-v_0\le0−d≤v+​−v0​≤0 and v+≥v1v_+\ge v_1v+​≥v1​, gives

κˉt(v,ζ∣d)=min⁡v+{h^(v+−v1)+p(v+−v0+d)+γfˉt+1[(v+,v2,…,vL−1,0)−ζe]}.\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)=\min_{v_+}\Big\{\hat h(v_+-v_1)+p(v_+-v_0+d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}\big[(v_+,v_2,\dots,v_{L-1},0)-\zeta e\big]\Big\}.κˉt​(v,ζ∣d)=v+​min​{h^(v+​−v1​)+p(v+​−v0​+d)+γfˉ​t+1​[(v+​,v2​,…,vL−1​,0)−ζe]}.

Here v+−v1v_+-v_1v+​−v1​ is the leftover stock and d−(v0−v+)d-(v_0-v_+)d−(v0​−v+​) the unmet demand.

Parametric demand. The demand d(ϕ)d(\phi)d(ϕ) depends on a real parameter ϕ\phiϕ, with law μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​, and fˉt(v;ϕ)\bar f_t(v;\phi)fˉ​t​(v;ϕ) is the optimal cost under μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​. A random variable XXX is smaller than YYY in the convex order if E g(X)≤E g(Y)E\,g(X)\le E\,g(Y)Eg(X)≤Eg(Y) for every convex g:R→Rg:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rg:R→R for which both expectations exist. This forces equal means and a variance that does not decrease.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 11 (p. 941)

If d(ϕ)d(\phi)d(ϕ) is increasing in ϕ\phiϕ with respect to the convex order, then for all ttt and all v∈Vv\in Vv∈V,

ϕ≤ϕ′ ⟹ fˉt(v;ϕ)≤fˉt(v;ϕ′).\phi\le\phi'\ \Longrightarrow\ \bar f_t(v;\phi)\le\bar f_t(v;\phi').ϕ≤ϕ′ ⟹ fˉ​t​(v;ϕ)≤fˉ​t​(v;ϕ′).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Reformulation (proof of Theorem 4, p. 939). For v∈Vv\in Vv∈V, ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0, d≥0d\ge0d≥0, the stock level v+=[v0−v1−d]++v1v_+=[v_0-v_1-d]^++v_1v+​=[v0​−v1​−d]++v1​ is optimal in program (4):
κˉt(v,ζ∣d)=q^(v0−v1−d)+γfˉt+1(v+).\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)=\hat q(v_0-v_1-d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}(v_+).κˉt​(v,ζ∣d)=q^​(v0​−v1​−d)+γfˉ​t+1​(v+​).
  1. Convexity of the optimal cost (Theorem 4, p. 939, with the remark on p. 938). fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ is convex on VVV for every ttt.
  2. The key step (proof of Theorem 11, p. 941). If FFF is convex and nonnegative on VVV, then program (4) with continuation FFF is jointly convex in (v,ζ,d)(v,\zeta,d)(v,ζ,d) on {v∈V, ζ≤0, d≥0}\{v\in V,\ \zeta\le0,\ d\ge0\}{v∈V, ζ≤0, d≥0}.
  3. The induction step (proof of Theorem 11, p. 941). If fˉt+1(v;ϕ)\bar f_{t+1}(v;\phi)fˉ​t+1​(v;ϕ) is nondecreasing in ϕ\phiϕ on VVV, then so is gˉt(v,ζ;ϕ)\bar g_t(v,\zeta;\phi)gˉ​t​(v,ζ;ϕ) for every ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0.

Significance

Theorem 11 is a comparative-statics statement: replacing demand by a mean-preserving spread cannot lower the optimal cost from any starting state, at any horizon. It justifies valuing variance reduction in lost-sales systems, for example forecasting or demand pooling, without solving the high-dimensional dynamic program. The induction pattern of the proof transfers to other parametric questions about the model; §6 of the paper notes that the parametric analysis remains valid in several extensions.

The paper proves Theorem 11 in a few lines on top of Theorem 4. No machine-checked proof of the result or of its structural prerequisites is known: neither the lost-sales recursion in the transformed state nor its convexity is formalized. A complete development checks the measure-theoretic steps the paper leaves implicit: that the optimal costs are finite, the existence of the expectations, and the passage from convexity in ddd on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) to the convex order's test functions on R\mathbb RR.

Difficulty

The argument looks immediate: the costs are convex, so the convex order should apply directly. It does not. The function to which the convex order must be applied is the end-of-period cost as a function of demand. In recursion (1) that function is q^(v0−v1−d)+γfˉt+1(v+(d))\hat q(v_0-v_1-d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}(v_+(d))q^​(v0​−v1​−d)+γfˉ​t+1​(v+​(d)), where the next state depends on ddd through the kink [v0−v1−d]+[v_0-v_1-d]^+[v0​−v1​−d]+. Convexity of fˉt+1\bar f_{t+1}fˉ​t+1​ alone does not make this composition convex in ddd. The paper avoids the issue by passing to program (4), where the amount of demand filled is a decision. That requires two facts: that selling as much as possible is optimal (milestone 1), and that the program is jointly convex in state, action and demand (milestone 3), which needs convexity of fˉt+1\bar f_{t+1}fˉ​t+1​ on all of VVV (milestone 2). A second difficulty is analytic: the optimal costs are defined by infima and expectations, and one must show that these are finite and integrable before any order comparison applies.

Formalization scope

  • Model. States are Fin L → ℝ with 0-based indices matching the paper. vL=0v_L=0vL​=0 is the helper vext. VVV is the set of antitone, nonnegative vectors.
  • Time. Data are stationary, so the optimal cost is indexed by the number of periods to go kkk, with fˉ=0\bar f=0fˉ​=0 at k=0k=0k=0. The paper's "for all ttt" is "for all kkk".
  • Demand. One-period demand has law μ\muμ, a probability measure on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0 and finite mean. The finite mean is not in the paper; it is added so that q^0\hat q^0q^​0 is finite.
  • Parametric family. A family μϕ\mu_\phiμϕ​, ϕ∈R\phi\in\mathbb Rϕ∈R, with every hypothesis imposed for every ϕ\phiϕ. Every object depending on demand takes the law as an argument, so fˉt(v;ϕ)\bar f_t(v;\phi)fˉ​t​(v;ϕ) is fbar … (μ φ) k v.
  • Costs. "Unit cost" and "discount rate" are read as c,h^,p≥0c,\hat h,p\ge0c,h^,p≥0 and 0<γ≤10<\gamma\le10<γ≤1.
  • Minima. "Min" over orders is an infimum over ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0, and program (4) is an infimum over the interval [max⁡(v0−d,v1),v0][\max(v_0-d,v_1),v_0][max(v0​−d,v1​),v0​]. Lean's infimum is 000 on sets that are unbounded below or empty. Nonnegative costs and demand keep the infima genuine, and the generic key-step milestone assumes the continuation is nonnegative.
  • Expectations. Bochner integrals.
  • Convex order. The platform definition StochasticOrders.Convex.ConvexOrder (Shaked–Shanthikumar (3.A.1)), applied to the identity on (R,μϕ)(\mathbb R,\mu_\phi)(R,μϕ​). Equal means are a consequence and are not assumed.
  • Convexity milestone. Stated for the model's fˉ\bar ffˉ​ only, not as "L♮^\natural♮-convex implies convex" in general, which fails without regularity.

Ruled out. Value functions that collapse to a junk constant would make Theorem 11 trivially true. This is excluded because the recursion is defined, not assumed, and every cost and demand hypothesis is imposed for every ϕ\phiϕ. Replacing the convex order by "variance nondecreasing", by the increasing convex order, or by test functions convex only on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) changes the theorem and is not accepted.

Infrastructure and contributions. A complete development needs:

  • finiteness and integrability of the optimal costs;
  • convexity of partial infima over convex fibers;
  • monotone extension of a function convex on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) to all of R\mathbb RR.

The model file is shared in shape with the series' missions 1 (L♮^\natural♮-convexity) and 2 (policy bounds), and its convexity lemmas are reusable for other parametric comparisons of the lost-sales model. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative arguments that bypass program (4), are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, On the structure of lost-sales inventory models, Operations Research 56(4), 937–944, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0482
  • S. Karlin, H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Chapter 10, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the solution of the lagged optimal inventory equation with no demand backlogging and proportional costs, SIAM Review 11, 572–576, 1969 (as cited in Zipkin 2008).
  • J.-S. Song, The effect of leadtime uncertainty in a simple stochastic inventory model, Management Science 40(5), 603–613, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.5.603
  • D. Stoyan, Comparison Methods for Queues and Other Stochastic Models, Wiley, 1983.
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders, Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-34675-5
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryLinear Optimization+2·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximating Minimum Bounded Degree Spanning Trees to within One of Optimal 2: Under Lower and Upper Degree Bounds, Iterative Rounding Finds a Connecting Tree of LP Cost within A_v − 1 and B_v + 1Research Paper

Motivation

Network design problems often ask for a cheap spanning tree in which no vertex is overloaded: in multicast and overlay networks the degree of a node bounds the number of copies it must forward, and in physical networks it bounds the number of ports. The minimum bounded degree spanning tree problem asks for a minimum-cost spanning tree whose degrees respect given bounds. Deciding whether a graph has a spanning tree of maximum degree 2 is already the Hamiltonian path problem, so exact solutions are out of reach, and the question becomes how little the bounds and the cost must be relaxed.

Some problems also impose lower bounds: a vertex that must serve as a hub, or a leaf-avoidance requirement, asks for degree at least AvA_vAv​. Singh and Lau (STOC 2007) showed that the iterative rounding method they used for upper bounds extends to both kinds at once: a spanning tree of cost at most the LP optimum whose degree at every vertex lies in [Av−1, Bv+1][A_v-1,\,B_v+1][Av​−1,Bv​+1].

Timeline. Fürer and Raghavachari (1994) found a spanning tree of maximum degree at most Δ∗+1\Delta^*+1Δ∗+1 in the unweighted case. For costs, Goemans (FOCS 2006) obtained cost at most OPT with degrees at most Bv+2B_v+2Bv​+2. Singh and Lau (STOC 2007) improved this to Bv+1B_v+1Bv​+1, which is the best possible additive violation unless P = NP, and gave the extension to lower and upper bounds formalized here. The journal version appeared in J. ACM 62(1), 2015.

Setting

Let G=(V,E)G=(V,E)G=(V,E) be a finite simple graph with edge costs ce∈Rc_e\in\mathbb Rce​∈R; no sign or triangle inequality is assumed. Let FFF be a forest on VVV with no edge in common with EEE. A set H⊆EH\subseteq EH⊆E is an FFF-tree if H∪FH\cup FH∪F is a spanning tree of VVV, and dH(v)d_H(v)dH​(v) is the number of edges of HHH at vvv. Integer lower bounds AvA_vAv​ are given on U⊆VU\subseteq VU⊆V and integer upper bounds BvB_vBv​ on W⊆VW\subseteq VW⊆V. The minimum bounded degree connecting tree problem asks for a cheapest FFF-tree with Av≤dH(v)A_v\le d_H(v)Av​≤dH​(v) on UUU and dH(v)≤Bvd_H(v)\le B_vdH​(v)≤Bv​ on WWW; with F=∅F=\varnothingF=∅ it is the spanning-tree problem.

The supernodes are the vertex sets of the components of (V,F)(V,F)(V,F), isolated vertices included, and I(F)\mathcal I(F)I(F) is the family of unions of supernodes. For S⊆VS\subseteq VS⊆V, E(S)E(S)E(S) and F(S)F(S)F(S) are the edges with both endpoints in SSS, δ(S)\delta(S)δ(S) the edges with exactly one endpoint in SSS, and x(D)=∑e∈Dxex(D)=\sum_{e\in D}x_ex(D)=∑e∈D​xe​. The linear relaxation LP-MBDCT(G,A,B,U,W,F)(G,\mathcal A,\mathcal B,U,W,F)(G,A,B,U,W,F) minimizes ∑ecexe\sum_e c_ex_e∑e​ce​xe​ subject to

x(E(V))=∣V∣−∣F(V)∣−1,x(E(S))≤∣S∣−∣F(S)∣−1 (S∈I(F)),Av≤x(δ(v)) (v∈U),x(δ(v))≤Bv (v∈W),x≥0.x(E(V))=|V|-|F(V)|-1,\quad x(E(S))\le|S|-|F(S)|-1\ (S\in\mathcal I(F)),\quad A_v\le x(\delta(v))\ (v\in U),\quad x(\delta(v))\le B_v\ (v\in W),\quad x\ge0.x(E(V))=∣V∣−∣F(V)∣−1,x(E(S))≤∣S∣−∣F(S)∣−1 (S∈I(F)),Av​≤x(δ(v)) (v∈U),x(δ(v))≤Bv​ (v∈W),x≥0.

MBDCT Algorithm2 (Figure 5 of the paper) repeats: if FFF is a spanning tree, stop; otherwise take a basic optimal solution x∗x^*x∗, delete the edges with xe∗=0x^*_e=0xe∗​=0, move one edge with xe∗=1x^*_e=1xe∗​=1 (if any) into FFF and lower AAA and BBB by one at its endpoints, and otherwise remove from UUU and WWW one vertex whose support degree is at most two.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

For every well-formed instance whose LP is feasible, MBDCT Algorithm2

  1. has a terminating run;
  2. makes at most ∣V∣−∣F∣−1+∣U∪W∣|V|-|F|-1+|U\cup W|∣V∣−∣F∣−1+∣U∪W∣ iterations on every run;
  3. returns only FFF-trees H⊆EH\subseteq EH⊆E with
c(H)≤∑e∈Ecexe for every feasible x,Av−1≤dH(v) (v∈U),dH(v)≤Bv+1 (v∈W).c(H)\le\sum_{e\in E}c_ex_e\ \text{for every feasible }x,\qquad A_v-1\le d_H(v)\ (v\in U),\qquad d_H(v)\le B_v+1\ (v\in W).c(H)≤e∈E∑​ce​xe​ for every feasible x,Av​−1≤dH​(v) (v∈U),dH​(v)≤Bv​+1 (v∈W).

The statement fixes no constants beyond the paper's ±1\pm1±1, and it is uniform over every choice of basic optimal solution, 1-edge and removed vertex.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them: Lemma 5.3 (a basic solution is determined by a laminar family of tight sets and tight lower and upper degree rows, with ∣E∗∣=∣L∣+∣TU∣+∣TW∣|E^*|=|\mathcal L|+|T_U|+|T_W|∣E∗∣=∣L∣+∣TU​∣+∣TW​∣); Claims 5.4, 5.7, 5.8 and 5.9 (special supernodes, cut sizes, the value x∗(D(S))=r−1x^*(D(S))=r-1x∗(D(S))=r−1 on the edges between the rrr members of SSS, and when a set is special); Lemma 5.6 (every set of L\mathcal LL keeps at least three tokens, exactly three only if it is special or VVV); and Lemma 5.1 (a basic solution has an edge with xe∗=1x^*_e=1xe∗​=1 or a vertex of U∪WU\cup WU∪W with support degree two).

Significance

The theorem gives, in one algorithm, a tree that is no more expensive than the LP lower bound and whose degrees miss both bounds by at most one. For the pure upper-bound problem it implies the (1,Bv+1)(1,B_v+1)(1,Bv​+1) guarantee, which cannot be improved to BvB_vBv​ unless P = NP, since a Hamiltonian path is the case Bv≡2B_v\equiv 2Bv​≡2. With lower bounds it also covers prescribed minimum degrees.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it, or of any iterative rounding analysis, is known to exist. No platform item treats bounded-degree spanning trees or iterative rounding; the nearest related item is the open Williamson–Shmoys minimum-degree spanning tree local-search goal, which concerns a different, unweighted problem. Formalizing this mission requires the extreme-point structure of the spanning tree polytope with degree constraints (uncrossing to a laminar family), the token counting argument, and the induction over the algorithm's recursion, all of which are reusable for other iterative rounding results.

Difficulty

The obvious argument rounds an optimal LP solution once. It fails: an optimal vertex may be entirely fractional, and no single rounding keeps both the cost and the degrees. The algorithm instead re-solves the LP after each change, and its correctness rests on Lemma 5.1, that every extreme point of the current LP has an integral edge or a vertex with support degree two. That lemma is a counting statement about extreme points: the rank bound ∣E∗∣=∣L∣+∣TU∣+∣TW∣|E^*|=|\mathcal L|+|T_U|+|T_W|∣E∗∣=∣L∣+∣TU​∣+∣TW​∣ from a laminar basis must be contradicted by a token distribution. With upper bounds only, every set of the laminar family can collect four tokens. With lower bounds a set may collect only three, and the proof must characterize those sets (special sets, Definition 5.5) and show by linear independence that the remaining cases cannot occur. A second difficulty is that the guarantee concerns the final tree after many iterations, so the degree accounting must survive the changes of AAA, BBB, UUU, WWW and FFF along the run.

Formalization scope

Vertices form a Fintype; edges are elements of Sym2 V with no loops, and EEE, FFF are finite sets of edges with FFF acyclic and disjoint from EEE. LP vectors are functions on Sym2 V that vanish off EEE. Right-hand sides are computed in R\mathbb RR, degree bounds are integers, and the subtour rows range over nonempty S∈I(F)S\in\mathcal I(F)S∈I(F) (at S=∅S=\varnothingS=∅ the literal row 0≤−10\le-10≤−1 would make the LP empty). A basic solution is a feasible xxx that is the only vector on EEE satisfying with equality every constraint tight at xxx, including the tight rows xe=0x_e=0xe​=0. Supernodes are never contracted: the paper's contraction of a supernode with one active vertex is a proof device, and all of §5.1's notions are stated on the original instance.

The paper's loose phrases are made explicit as follows.

  • "Polynomial time" becomes the iteration bound; the LP is solved by an oracle that returns any basic optimal solution. The ellipsoid method and the separation oracle are out of scope.
  • "The algorithm returns" becomes three claims: a run exists, every run is bounded, and every returned set satisfies the guarantee. The guarantee alone would hold vacuously for a relation that can get stuck.
  • "Cost at most the cost of the optimal LP solution" becomes c(H)≤c⋅xc(H)\le c\cdot xc(H)≤c⋅x for every feasible xxx.
  • "Distribute the tokens" (Lemma 5.6) becomes a counting inequality on the surplus of tokens.
  • Claim 5.9's "contains exactly three special members" means that SSS has exactly three members, all of them special.
  • Figure 5's Step 4 is guarded by "no edge was picked in Step 3", as the paper's text under Lemma 5.1 states.
  • "FFF is not a spanning tree" and LP feasibility are explicit hypotheses where the paper leaves them implicit.

Two trivializations are ruled out. Existence of a cheap tree with degrees in [Av−1,Bv+1][A_v-1,B_v+1][Av​−1,Bv​+1] is not the target: the statement is about the algorithm's outputs and quantifies over all of them. And a run that never terminates does not satisfy the goal, which requires a run to exist and every run to be bounded.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the laminar uncrossing argument (Lemma 5.3), which is reusable for any spanning-tree LP with degree rows; the counting claims; and the invariants of the recursion.

Selected references

  • M. Singh, L. C. Lau, Approximating minimum bounded degree spanning trees to within one of optimal, STOC 2007, pp. 661–670. https://doi.org/10.1145/1250790.1250887
  • M. Singh, L. C. Lau, Approximating minimum bounded degree spanning trees to within one of optimal, J. ACM 62(1), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1145/2629366
  • M. X. Goemans, Minimum bounded degree spanning trees, FOCS 2006, pp. 273–282. https://doi.org/10.1109/FOCS.2006.48
  • M. Fürer, B. Raghavachari, Approximating the minimum-degree Steiner tree to within one of optimal, J. Algorithms 17(3), 1994, pp. 409–423. https://doi.org/10.1006/jagm.1994.1042
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AnalysisOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The G/GI/N Queue in the Halfin–Whitt Regime 2: The Diffusion-Limit Equation Is Equivalent to a Renewal-Function Equation, Which Has a Unique Càdlàg SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A G/GI/N queue has NNN identical servers, a general arrival process, a first-come-first-served waiting room and i.i.d. service times with a general distribution FFF of mean 111. In the Halfin–Whitt regime the number of servers grows while the traffic intensity ρN\rho^NρN approaches 111 at rate N(1−ρN)→β∈R\sqrt N(1-\rho^N)\to\beta\in\mathbb RN​(1−ρN)→β∈R; this is the standard asymptotic model for large call centers, where a positive fraction of customers wait but waiting times are short. Halfin and Whitt (Oper. Res. 1981) obtained a diffusion limit for exponential service times. Reed (arXiv:0912.2837, Ann. Appl. Probab. 2009) proved the corresponding limit for general service times: the centred and scaled queue length converges (Theorem 5.1) to the solution of a nonlinear stochastic convolution equation, (5.33) below.

Equation (5.33) is written in terms of an infinite-server limit, and it is not evident from its form that it reduces to the Halfin–Whitt diffusion when service is exponential. Section 5.5 of the paper gives a second representation, Corollary 5.2, in which the convolution against FFF is replaced by a convolution against the renewal function of FFF. With exponential service the renewal function is M(t)=tM(t)=tM(t)=t, and the representation becomes the Halfin–Whitt diffusion. This mission formalizes Corollary 5.2 and the renewal-theoretic steps of its proof.

Timeline. Halfin–Whitt (1981): exponential service, diffusion limit. Reed (2009): general service with finite mean; Corollary 5.2 links the general limit back to 1981. Karlin–Taylor (1975) and Ross (1983): the renewal-type equation and the renewal equation that the proof cites.

Setting

Let μ\muμ be a probability measure on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with mean ∫x dμ(x)=1\int x\,d\mu(x)=1∫xdμ(x)=1 (the service-time law), F(t)=μ((−∞,t])F(t)=\mu((-\infty,t])F(t)=μ((−∞,t]) its distribution function and G=1−FG=1-FG=1−F its tail. The equilibrium distribution is

Fe(x)=∫0xG(u) du,x≥0.(5.4)F_e(x)=\int_0^x G(u)\,du,\qquad x\ge0.\tag{5.4}Fe​(x)=∫0x​G(u)du,x≥0.(5.4)

Let μ∗n\mu^{*n}μ∗n be the nnn-fold convolution of μ\muμ (the law of the nnnth renewal epoch SnS_nSn​). The renewal measure is dM=∑n≥1μ∗ndM=\sum_{n\ge1}\mu^{*n}dM=∑n≥1​μ∗n and the renewal function is M(t)=∑n≥1F∗n(t)M(t)=\sum_{n\ge1}F^{*n}(t)M(t)=∑n≥1​F∗n(t), the expected number of renewals by time ttt.

A path x:R→Rx:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rx:R→R is càdlàg on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) if it is right continuous at every t≥0t\ge0t≥0 with finite left limits at every t>0t>0t>0; only its values on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) matter. Fix a càdlàg driving path ζ\zetaζ (in the paper ζ~=M~Q+Q~I\tilde\zeta=\tilde M_Q+\tilde Q_Iζ~​=M~Q​+Q~​I​, (5.40)) and β∈R\beta\in\mathbb Rβ∈R. Write y+=max⁡(y,0)y^+=\max(y,0)y+=max(y,0) and y−=min⁡(y,0)≤0y^-=\min(y,0)\le0y−=min(y,0)≤0. The two equations are

q(t)=ζ(t)−βFe(t)+∫0tq+(t−s) dF(s),t≥0,(5.33)q(t)=\zeta(t)-\beta F_e(t)+\int_0^t q^+(t-s)\,dF(s),\qquad t\ge0,\tag{5.33}q(t)=ζ(t)−βFe​(t)+∫0t​q+(t−s)dF(s),t≥0,(5.33) q(t)=ζ(t)+∫0tζ(t−u) dM(u)−βt−∫0tq−(t−u) dM(u),t≥0.(5.41)q(t)=\zeta(t)+\int_0^t\zeta(t-u)\,dM(u)-\beta t-\int_0^t q^-(t-u)\,dM(u),\qquad t\ge0.\tag{5.41}q(t)=ζ(t)+∫0t​ζ(t−u)dM(u)−βt−∫0t​q−(t−u)dM(u),t≥0.(5.41)

All Stieltjes integrals are over the closed interval [0,t][0,t][0,t].

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 5.2 (p. 29)

For every service law μ\muμ, every càdlàg ζ\zetaζ and every β\betaβ:

∀q caˋdlaˋg:q solves (5.33)  ⟺  q solves (5.41),\forall q\ \text{càdlàg}:\quad q\ \text{solves (5.33)}\iff q\ \text{solves (5.41)},∀q caˋdlaˋg:q solves (5.33)⟺q solves (5.41),

and (5.41) has a càdlàg solution that is unique on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) among càdlàg paths.

Milestones, in proof order

  1. (5.39): MMM is finite, solves M(t)=F(t)+∫0tM(t−u) dF(u)M(t)=F(t)+\int_0^tM(t-u)\,dF(u)M(t)=F(t)+∫0t​M(t−u)dF(u), and is its unique locally bounded measurable solution.
  2. (5.42)–(5.43): for locally bounded measurable HHH, r=H+∫0tH(t−u) dM(u)r=H+\int_0^tH(t-u)\,dM(u)r=H+∫0t​H(t−u)dM(u) is the unique locally bounded solution of r(t)=H(t)+∫0tr(t−u) dF(u)r(t)=H(t)+\int_0^tr(t-u)\,dF(u)r(t)=H(t)+∫0t​r(t−u)dF(u).
  3. The identity Fe(t)+∫0tFe(t−s) dM(s)=tF_e(t)+\int_0^tF_e(t-s)\,dM(s)=tFe​(t)+∫0t​Fe​(t−s)dM(s)=t for t≥0t\ge0t≥0 (p. 30).
  4. (5.44): every càdlàg solution of (5.33) satisfies (5.41) with −βt-\beta t−βt replaced by −β(Fe(t)+∫0tFe(t−s) dM(s))-\beta\bigl(F_e(t)+\int_0^tF_e(t-s)\,dM(s)\bigr)−β(Fe​(t)+∫0t​Fe​(t−s)dM(s)).
  5. (5.46) (further): for exponential service of rate 111, M(t)=tM(t)=tM(t)=t and (5.41) becomes q(t)=ζ(t)+∫0tζ(s) ds−βt−∫0tq−(s) dsq(t)=\zeta(t)+\int_0^t\zeta(s)\,ds-\beta t-\int_0^tq^-(s)\,dsq(t)=ζ(t)+∫0t​ζ(s)ds−βt−∫0t​q−(s)ds.

Significance

The result. Corollary 5.2 expresses the many-server diffusion limit as an equation that is linear in the driving process ζ\zetaζ and whose only nonlinearity is the idle-server term ∫0tq−(t−u) dM(u)\int_0^tq^-(t-u)\,dM(u)∫0t​q−(t−u)dM(u). This is how the paper verifies that its general-service limit agrees with Halfin and Whitt's for exponential service, and the paper's sequel interprets the integral term as the limiting idle time of the servers. Uniqueness in (5.41) also yields the paper's remark that Q~N⇒Q~M\tilde Q^N\Rightarrow\tilde Q_MQ~​N⇒Q~​M​, the solution of (5.41).

The formalization. The result is proved in the paper, but only partly written: the printed proof shows that the solution of (5.33) satisfies (5.41), while the converse and the uniqueness are asserted. The mission states both. It also produces, independently of queueing, the renewal measure of a law on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with possible atoms, its finiteness on bounded sets, the renewal equation and the solution of renewal-type equations, and the identity Fe+Fe∗dM=tF_e+F_e*dM=tFe​+Fe​∗dM=t; none of these is in Mathlib or published on the platform. To our knowledge nothing in this mission has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The forward direction is formal once (5.42)–(5.43) is available, but (5.42)–(5.43) itself needs the renewal measure to be finite on bounded intervals when FFF may have an atom at 000, and the uniqueness half needs an argument that does not assume the kernel has mass below one on any window starting at 000. The converse direction, (5.41) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (5.33), cannot be read off the printed proof, because (5.41) is not an equation of renewal type in qqq. The uniqueness of (5.41) is not a contraction argument either: the atom of dMdMdM at 000 has mass F(0)/(1−F(0))F(0)/(1-F(0))F(0)/(1−F(0)), which may exceed 111, so a naive Picard estimate on [0,δ][0,\delta][0,δ] fails.

Formalization scope

  • Paths are functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; every equation is asserted for t≥0t\ge0t≥0 and every uniqueness is equality on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Values at negative times are never read.
  • The service law is a probability measure μ\muμ on R\mathbb RR with μ((−∞,0))=0\mu((-\infty,0))=0μ((−∞,0))=0, integrable identity and mean 111. The paper places "no additional restrictions on FFF beyond a first moment".
  • The renewal measure is defined as ∑n≥1μ∗n\sum_{n\ge1}\mu^{*n}∑n≥1​μ∗n (Mathlib's additive convolution of measures), not through an i.i.d. sequence; the paper's "expected number of renewals" equals it by Tonelli.
  • Stieltjes integrals are Lebesgue integrals over the closed [0,t][0,t][0,t], so atoms at 000 of dFdFdF and dMdMdM are included. q−q^-q− is min⁡(q,0)\min(q,0)min(q,0), not Mathlib's negPart.
  • Explicit readings: "unique strong solution" is existence and uniqueness among càdlàg paths, pathwise for each fixed ζ\zetaζ. The paper's random statement follows by applying it to each sample path, which lies in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞) almost surely (p. 30). "Locally bounded" is bounded on every [0,T][0,T][0,T], with measurability added for the functions in (5.39) and (5.42).
  • Corrected slip: (5.42) prints ∫0tr(t) dF(t−u)\int_0^tr(t)\,dF(t-u)∫0t​r(t)dF(t−u); the stated equation is ∫0tr(t−u) dF(u)\int_0^tr(t-u)\,dF(u)∫0t​r(t−u)dF(u). Milestone (5.42)–(5.43) assumes FFF carried by [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with F(0)<1F(0)<1F(0)<1, under which the cited result holds.
  • Ruled out: the solution of (5.33) is not assumed to exist (it exists by the paper's Proposition 3.1 with a=0a=0a=0, B=FB=FB=F, which the solver must supply). MMM is the renewal measure of the same FFF, never an arbitrary measure assumed to satisfy (5.39). Uniqueness is among càdlàg paths on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), so no non-measurable path makes an integral vanish.
  • Not in the mission: Theorems 4.1 and 5.1 (weak convergence in the Skorohod space), whose limit this corollary rewrites, and the Brownian-motion claim after (5.46).
  • Related platform items, credited but not the same object: BellmanDP.Inventory.renewal_equation_exists_unique (a renewal equation with a density kernel of mass below 111); ChenWhitt93.Reflection.Basic (càdlàg paths on [0,T][0,T][0,T]). Reusable output: the renewal measure, (5.39) and (5.42)–(5.43) serve any renewal-theoretic development. Alternative proofs of the converse and of uniqueness are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. Reed, The G/GI/N queue in the Halfin–Whitt regime, Ann. Appl. Probab. 19(6), 2009, 2211–2269. https://arxiv.org/abs/0912.2837 (v1), https://doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP609
  • S. Halfin and W. Whitt, Heavy-traffic limits for queues with many exponential servers, Oper. Res. 29(3), 1981, 567–588. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.29.3.567
  • S. Karlin and H. M. Taylor, A First Course in Stochastic Processes, 2nd ed., Academic Press, 1975 (reference [11] of the paper).
  • S. M. Ross, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, 1983 (reference [19] of the paper, Exercise 3.4).
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CombinatoricsProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Coalescents With Multiple Collisions 2: Coagulating an (α, θ) Partition by (β, θ/α) Equals Fragmenting an (αβ, θ) Partition by (α, −αβ)Research Paper

Motivation

Random partitions of the positive integers N={1,2,… }\mathbb N=\{1,2,\dots\}N={1,2,…} are the common language of population genetics, Bayesian nonparametrics and the theory of coalescent processes. When a sample of genes, customers or particles is grouped into classes, the grouping is a partition, and in most models its law is exchangeable: it does not depend on the labels. The best-known example is the Ewens sampling formula of population genetics (Ewens 1972); Kingman's representation theory (Kingman 1978) describes all exchangeable random partitions of N\mathbb NN.

Pitman's two-parameter family of exchangeable partitions, the (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partitions (Pitman 1995; Pitman and Yor 1997), contains Ewens' family as α=0\alpha=0α=0 and is the partition counterpart of the two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution. Theorem 12 of Pitman 1999 shows that two natural random operations act on this family in a dual way: merging blocks of an (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partition according to an independent exchangeable partition (coagulation) and splitting each block of an (αβ,θ)(\alpha\beta,\theta)(αβ,θ) partition by independent exchangeable partitions (fragmentation) produce the same joint law of a fine and a coarse partition. The paper uses it to describe the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent (Bolthausen and Sznitman 1998).

Timeline. 1972: Ewens' sampling formula, the case α=0\alpha=0α=0. 1978: Kingman's correspondence between exchangeable partitions and random mass partitions. 1995: Pitman introduces exchangeable partition probability functions and the (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) formula (15). 1997: Pitman and Yor study the two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet law. 1999: this paper proves the coagulation–fragmentation duality (Theorem 12) and its sharper converse, by reduction to an identity between explicit formulas. The duality is treated again in Pitman's lecture notes Combinatorial Stochastic Processes (2006).

Setting

A partition of a set is a collection of disjoint nonempty blocks whose union is the set. Write Pn\mathcal P_nPn​ for the partitions of [n]={1,…,n}[n]=\{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n} and P∞\mathcal P_\inftyP∞​ for those of N\mathbb NN; the restriction RnπR_n\piRn​π of π∈P∞\pi\in\mathcal P_\inftyπ∈P∞​ to [n][n][n] keeps the nonempty sets A∩[n]A\cap[n]A∩[n]. P∞\mathcal P_\inftyP∞​ carries the σ\sigmaσ-algebra generated by the RnR_nRn​. Writing π={A1,A2,… }\pi=\{A_1,A_2,\dots\}π={A1​,A2​,…} lists the blocks in increasing order of least elements.

A random partition Π\PiΠ of N\mathbb NN is exchangeable with EPF ppp if for every nnn and every partition {B1,…,Bk}\{B_1,\dots,B_k\}{B1​,…,Bk​} of [n][n][n],

P(RnΠ={B1,…,Bk})=p(∣B1∣,…,∣Bk∣).\mathbb P\big(R_n\Pi=\{B_1,\dots,B_k\}\big)=p(|B_1|,\dots,|B_k|).P(Rn​Π={B1​,…,Bk​})=p(∣B1​∣,…,∣Bk​∣).

For 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1 and θ>−α\theta>-\alphaθ>−α the (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) EPF is

pα,θ(n1,…,nk)=[θ/α]k[θ]n∏i=1k−[−α]ni,[x]m=∏i=1m(x+i−1),n=∑ini,p_{\alpha,\theta}(n_1,\dots,n_k)=\frac{[\theta/\alpha]_k}{[\theta]_n}\prod_{i=1}^k-[-\alpha]_{n_i},\qquad [x]_m=\prod_{i=1}^m(x+i-1),\quad n=\textstyle\sum_i n_i,pα,θ​(n1​,…,nk​)=[θ]n​[θ/α]k​​i=1∏k​−[−α]ni​​,[x]m​=i=1∏m​(x+i−1),n=∑i​ni​,

with factors of α\alphaα and θ\thetaθ cancelled before evaluation when α=0\alpha=0α=0 or θ=0\theta=0θ=0. An (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partition is an exchangeable random partition with EPF pα,θp_{\alpha,\theta}pα,θ​.

Coagulation (Definition 5): for π={A1,A2,… }\pi=\{A_1,A_2,\dots\}π={A1​,A2​,…} and γ={B1,B2,… }\gamma=\{B_1,B_2,\dots\}γ={B1​,B2​,…}, the γ\gammaγ-coagulation of π\piπ has blocks ⋃j∈BiAj\bigcup_{j\in B_i}A_j⋃j∈Bi​​Aj​. Π′\Pi'Π′ is a ppp-coagulation of Π\PiΠ if, given Π=π\Pi=\piΠ=π, it is the γ\gammaγ-coagulation of π\piπ for an independent γ\gammaγ with EPF ppp. Fragmentation (Definition 11): Π\PiΠ is a ppp-fragmentation of Π′\Pi'Π′ if, given Π′=π′\Pi'=\pi'Π′=π′, Π\PiΠ restricted to the mmm-th block of π′\pi'π′ equals Γ(m)\Gamma^{(m)}Γ(m) restricted to that block, for independent Γ(1),Γ(2),…\Gamma^{(1)},\Gamma^{(2)},\dotsΓ(1),Γ(2),… with EPF ppp. In Lean these are coag, frag, pdEPF and IsEPFLaw in LambdaCoalescent.CoagFrag.Setting.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 12

For 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1, θ>−αβ\theta>-\alpha\betaθ>−αβ, the following are equivalent: (i) Π\PiΠ is an (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partition and Π′\Pi'Π′ is a (β,θ/α)(\beta,\theta/\alpha)(β,θ/α)-coagulation of Π\PiΠ; (ii) Π′\Pi'Π′ is an (αβ,θ)(\alpha\beta,\theta)(αβ,θ) partition and Π\PiΠ is an (α,−αβ)(\alpha,-\alpha\beta)(α,−αβ)-fragmentation of Π′\Pi'Π′. Formally, with laws μ,ν,ρ,κ\mu,\nu,\rho,\kappaμ,ν,ρ,κ of EPFs pα,θ,pβ,θ/α,pαβ,θ,pα,−αβp_{\alpha,\theta},p_{\beta,\theta/\alpha},p_{\alpha\beta,\theta},p_{\alpha,-\alpha\beta}pα,θ​,pβ,θ/α​,pαβ,θ​,pα,−αβ​:

(μ⊗ν){(π,γ):(π,coag(π,γ))∈S}=(ρ⊗κ⊗N){(π′,Γ):(frag(π′,Γ),π′)∈S}(\mu\otimes\nu)\{(\pi,\gamma):(\pi,\mathrm{coag}(\pi,\gamma))\in S\}=(\rho\otimes\kappa^{\otimes\mathbb N})\{(\pi',\Gamma):(\mathrm{frag}(\pi',\Gamma),\pi')\in S\}(μ⊗ν){(π,γ):(π,coag(π,γ))∈S}=(ρ⊗κ⊗N){(π′,Γ):(frag(π′,Γ),π′)∈S}

for every measurable S⊆P∞×P∞S\subseteq\mathcal P_\infty\times\mathcal P_\inftyS⊆P∞​×P∞​.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 9 (existence): for 0≤α<10\le\alpha<10≤α<1, θ>−α\theta>-\alphaθ>−α a law with EPF pα,θp_{\alpha,\theta}pα,θ​ exists.
  2. Lemma 34: Π2\Pi^2Π2 is a ppp-coagulation of Π1\Pi^1Π1 with EPF p1p_1p1​ iff P(Πn1=π1,Πn2=π2)=p1(a1,…,aK) p(j1,…,jk)\mathbb P(\Pi^1_n=\pi^1,\Pi^2_n=\pi^2)=p_1(a_1,\dots,a_K)\,p(j_1,\dots,j_k)P(Πn1​=π1,Πn2​=π2)=p1​(a1​,…,aK​)p(j1​,…,jk​) for refining pairs.
  3. Lemma 35: the fragmentation analogue, ∏ip^(ai,1,…,ai,ji) p2(b1,…,bk)\prod_i\hat p(a_{i,1},\dots,a_{i,j_i})\,p_2(b_1,\dots,b_k)∏i​p^​(ai,1​,…,ai,ji​​)p2​(b1​,…,bk​).
  4. The EPF identity in the proof of Theorem 12: (62) equals (63) for the four laws of Theorem 12.
  5. The sharper form: for parameters in PAR={0≤α<1,θ>−α}\mathrm{PAR}=\{0\le\alpha<1,\theta>-\alpha\}PAR={0≤α<1,θ>−α} the two joint laws agree iff αf=α\alpha_f=\alphaαf​=α, θf=−α1=−ααc\theta_f=-\alpha_1=-\alpha\alpha_cθf​=−α1​=−ααc​, θc=θ/α\theta_c=\theta/\alphaθc​=θ/α, θ1=θ\theta_1=\thetaθ1​=θ (64).

Significance

Theorem 12 identifies one law of a nested pair of exchangeable partitions from both ends. Read from (i) to (ii), it shows that coagulating an (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partition by an independent (β,θ/α)(\beta,\theta/\alpha)(β,θ/α) partition yields an (αβ,θ)(\alpha\beta,\theta)(αβ,θ) partition; read backwards, that an (αβ,θ)(\alpha\beta,\theta)(αβ,θ) partition fragmented by (α,−αβ)(\alpha,-\alpha\beta)(α,−αβ) partitions yields an (α,θ)(\alpha,\theta)(α,θ) partition. Through Kingman's correspondence it gives Corollary 13 on Poisson–Dirichlet laws, and with β=0\beta=0β=0 it connects the two-parameter family with Ewens' family. In the paper it is the tool for describing the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent through Poisson–Dirichlet laws. The sharper form shows the parameter relations (64) are forced.

The theorem has been proved since 1999. What this mission adds is a machine-checked development: exchangeable random partitions of N\mathbb NN with their EPFs, the coagulation and fragmentation kernels, and the reduction of identities between laws on P∞\mathcal P_\inftyP∞​ to identities between finite-dimensional formulas. None of these objects is in Mathlib, and no formalization of the duality is known.

Difficulty

The algebraic heart, the EPF identity, is a finite computation with rising factorials. The difficulty is measure-theoretic and combinatorial. A law on P∞\mathcal P_\inftyP∞​ must be pinned down by its values on the cylinder events {Rnπ=πn}\{R_n\pi=\pi_n\}{Rn​π=πn​}. Computing P(RnΠ=π1,RnΠ′=π2)\mathbb P(R_n\Pi=\pi^1,R_n\Pi'=\pi^2)P(Rn​Π=π1,Rn​Π′=π2) under the coagulation kernel requires that the blocks of π\piπ meeting [n][n][n] are exactly the first KKK blocks in order of least elements, and that the induced partition of [K][K][K] has law given by the EPF; under the fragmentation kernel it requires the independence of the Γ(m)\Gamma^{(m)}Γ(m) and that the restriction of an exchangeable partition to an arbitrary finite set (not an initial segment [b][b][b]) is governed by the same EPF. The converse in Lemmas 34 and 35 needs the bookkeeping that the formula on refining pairs exhausts total mass. Lemma 9 is an existence theorem for a projective family of laws, which the paper cites rather than proves.

Formalization scope

A partition of N\mathbb NN is an equivalence relation on Lean's N={0,1,… }\mathbb N=\{0,1,\dots\}N={0,1,…} (PInf := Setoid ℕ), a partition of [n][n][n] one on Fin n; labels shift by one, which preserves the order of least elements, and block indices are 0-based. The σ\sigmaσ-algebra on PInf is generated by the coordinates i∼πji\sim_\pi ji∼π​j, equivalently by the RnR_nRn​. Coagulation is stated with γ∈P∞\gamma\in\mathcal P_\inftyγ∈P∞​ (Definition 5's case n=∞n=\inftyn=∞). The EPF is the cancelled form

pα,θ(n1,…,nk)=∏i=1k−1(θ+iα)[θ+1]n−1∏i=1k[1−α]ni−1,p_{\alpha,\theta}(n_1,\dots,n_k)=\frac{\prod_{i=1}^{k-1}(\theta+i\alpha)}{[\theta+1]_{n-1}}\prod_{i=1}^k[1-\alpha]_{n_i-1},pα,θ​(n1​,…,nk​)=[θ+1]n−1​∏i=1k−1​(θ+iα)​i=1∏k​[1−α]ni​−1​,

equal to (15) for α,θ≠0\alpha,\theta\ne0α,θ=0; this is needed because θf=−αβ=0\theta_f=-\alpha\beta=0θf​=−αβ=0 at β=0\beta=0β=0. Conditional laws "for all π\piπ" are encoded as joint laws, and equalities of laws are stated on preimages of measurable sets, so no Measure.map of an unproved-measurable map appears. Fragmenting partitions are one sample of Measure.infinitePi (fun _ => κ). In the sharper form, θc=θ/α\theta_c=\theta/\alphaθc​=θ/α is written as αθc=θ\alpha\theta_c=\thetaαθc​=θ, since PAR allows α=0\alpha=0α=0.

Not formalized: the stick-breaking characterization (12)–(13) in Lemma 9, Corollary 13 and Kingman's correspondence, and the auxiliary fact "∏[−α]ni=cn,k∏[−β]ni⇒α=β\prod[-\alpha]_{n_i}=c_{n,k}\prod[-\beta]_{n_i}\Rightarrow\alpha=\beta∏[−α]ni​​=cn,k​∏[−β]ni​​⇒α=β", which as printed fails at α=0\alpha=0α=0.

A formalization in which no measure satisfies IsEPFLaw (pdEPF α θ) would make Theorem 12 and Lemmas 34–35 vacuous; Lemma 9 rules this out and must be proved for the parameters used, not assumed.

Infrastructure needed: cylinder-set uniqueness on PInf, the law of the restriction of an exchangeable partition to a finite set, block enumeration by least elements, and rising-factorial algebra (ascPochhammer). The partition, EPF and kernel definitions are reusable for any work on exchangeable partitions, Chinese restaurant processes or Λ\LambdaΛ-coalescents. Proofs of Lemma 9, of Lemmas 34–35 and of the EPF identity are each welcome as independent contributions.

Selected references

  • J. Pitman, Coalescents with multiple collisions, Ann. Probab. 27(4) (1999), 1870–1902. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1022874819
  • J. Pitman, Exchangeable and partially exchangeable random partitions, Probab. Theory Related Fields 102 (1995), 145–158. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01213386
  • J. Pitman and M. Yor, The two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution derived from a stable subordinator, Ann. Probab. 25(2) (1997), 855–900. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1024404422
  • J. F. C. Kingman, The representation of partition structures, J. London Math. Soc. (2) 18 (1978), 374–380. https://doi.org/10.1112/jlms/s2-18.2.374
  • W. J. Ewens, The sampling theory of selectively neutral alleles, Theor. Popul. Biol. 3 (1972), 87–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(72)90035-4
  • E. Bolthausen and A.-S. Sznitman, On Ruelle's probability cascades and an abstract cavity method, Comm. Math. Phys. 197 (1998), 247–276. https://doi.org/10.1007/s002200050450
  • J. Pitman, Combinatorial Stochastic Processes, Lecture Notes in Mathematics 1875, Springer, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1007/b11601500
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convergence Analysis of Some Algorithms for Solving Nonsmooth Equations III: A Descent Method with ‖d^k‖ ≤ p‖F(x^k)‖ Converges to Any BD-Regular Zero Among Its Limit PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization and equilibrium modelling reduce to a system of nonsmooth equations F(x)=0F(x)=0F(x)=0 with F:Rn→RnF:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nF:Rn→Rn locally Lipschitz but not differentiable: reformulations of nonlinear complementarity problems, variational inequalities and Karush–Kuhn–Tucker systems through the min⁡\minmin function or piecewise smooth maps. Newton-type methods for such systems replace the Jacobian by a directional derivative or a generalized Jacobian and globalize with a line search on the residual ∥F(x)∥\|F(x)\|∥F(x)∥.

Global convergence theory for these methods typically shows that every accumulation point of the iterates is a zero of FFF (or a stationary point of 12∥F∥2\tfrac12\|F\|^221​∥F∥2). That leaves open whether the whole sequence converges. L. Qi's 1993 paper in Mathematics of Operations Research (DOI 10.1287/moor.18.1.227) answers this with an attraction theorem: a zero with a nondegenerate directional derivative, once approached, captures the whole sequence of any descent method whose steps are controlled by the residual.

Timeline. Robinson (1987) introduced the B-derivative (as recounted on p. 229 of Qi's paper); Pang (1990, DOI 10.1287/moor.15.2.311) proposed the damped B-derivative Newton method and proved a global convergence theorem under strong conditions at the limit point; Han, Pang and Rangaraj (1992, DOI 10.1287/moor.17.3.586) gave two further globally convergent descent algorithms; Qi and Sun (1993, DOI 10.1007/BF01581275) developed the semismooth Newton method. Qi's 1993 §5 shows that, for convergence of the entire sequence to a zero, BD-regularity at that zero suffices for all three methods, without semismoothness.

Setting

Throughout, F:Rn→RnF:\mathbb R^n\to\mathbb R^nF:Rn→Rn is locally Lipschitz and ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ is the Euclidean norm. The directional derivative of FFF at xxx in direction hhh is the one-sided limit

F′(x;h)=lim⁡t↓0F(x+th)−F(x)t.F'(x;h)=\lim_{t\downarrow 0}\frac{F(x+th)-F(x)}{t}.F′(x;h)=t↓0lim​tF(x+th)−F(x)​.

FFF is directionally differentiable at xxx if this limit exists for every hhh, and B-differentiable at xxx if moreover

F(x+h)=F(x)+F′(x;h)+o(∥h∥)(h→0).(2.2)F(x+h)=F(x)+F'(x;h)+o(\|h\|)\qquad(h\to 0). \tag{2.2}F(x+h)=F(x)+F′(x;h)+o(∥h∥)(h→0).(2.2)

FFF is BD-regular at xxx if it is directionally differentiable there and F′(x;h)≠0F'(x;h)\ne 0F′(x;h)=0 for every h≠0h\ne 0h=0.

A descent direction method produces iterates xk+1=xk+αkdkx^{k+1}=x^k+\alpha_kd^kxk+1=xk+αk​dk with step sizes αk≥0\alpha_k\ge 0αk​≥0 and directions dkd^kdk, and is monotone in the residual:

∥F(xk+1)∥≤∥F(xk)∥.(5.1)\|F(x^{k+1})\|\le\|F(x^k)\|. \tag{5.1}∥F(xk+1)∥≤∥F(xk)∥.(5.1)

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a limiting point of {xk}\{x^k\}{xk} if some subsequence converges to it.

The damped Newton method (Algorithm 4.1) is the special case where dkd^kdk solves F(xk)+F′(xk;dk)=0F(x^k)+F'(x^k;d^k)=0F(xk)+F′(xk;dk)=0 and αk=βmks\alpha_k=\beta^{m_k}sαk​=βmk​s is chosen by the Armijo rule on g=12∥F∥2g=\tfrac12\|F\|^2g=21​∥F∥2.

Formalization targets

Goal: the attraction theorem (Theorem 5.1)

Let FFF be locally Lipschitz and B-differentiable, {xk}\{x^k\}{xk} a descent direction method satisfying (5.1), and x∗x^*x∗ a limiting point of {xk}\{x^k\}{xk} with F(x∗)=0F(x^*)=0F(x∗)=0 and FFF BD-regular at x∗x^*x∗. If there are δ1,s,p>0\delta_1,s,p>0δ1​,s,p>0 such that ∥xk−x∗∥≤δ1\|x^k-x^*\|\le\delta_1∥xk−x∗∥≤δ1​ implies αk≤s\alpha_k\le sαk​≤s and

∥dk∥≤p ∥F(xk)∥,(5.2)\|d^k\|\le p\,\|F(x^k)\|, \tag{5.2}∥dk∥≤p∥F(xk)∥,(5.2)

then

xk→x∗.x^k\to x^*.xk→x∗.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.4. BD-regularity at xxx gives a constant ccc with ∥h∥≤c∥F′(x;h)∥\|h\|\le c\|F'(x;h)\|∥h∥≤c∥F′(x;h)∥ for all hhh.
  2. The local error bound (5.5). Near a B-differentiable zero x∗x^*x∗ with the constant ccc of Lemma 2.4, ∥x−x∗∥≤2c∥F(x)∥\|x-x^*\|\le 2c\|F(x)\|∥x−x∗∥≤2c∥F(x)∥.
  3. The trapping step. For small ϵ\epsilonϵ, the set N(x∗,ϵ)={x:∥x−x∗∥≤ϵ, ∥F(x)∥≤ϵ/(2c+sp)}N(x^*,\epsilon)=\{x:\|x-x^*\|\le\epsilon,\ \|F(x)\|\le\epsilon/(2c+sp)\}N(x∗,ϵ)={x:∥x−x∗∥≤ϵ, ∥F(x)∥≤ϵ/(2c+sp)} is invariant under one step of the method.

Companions

  • Corollary 5.2: a run of the damped Newton method with an accumulation point x∗x^*x∗ that is a zero, at which ∥h∥≤c∥F′(x;h)∥\|h\|\le c\|F'(x;h)\|∥h∥≤c∥F′(x;h)∥ holds uniformly for xxx near x∗x^*x∗, converges to x∗x^*x∗.
  • Proposition 2.5: a BD-regular, semismooth zero is locally unique.
  • The Han–Pang–Rangaraj bounds: the two direction-finding subproblems of Han, Pang and Rangaraj satisfy (5.2), with p=1/lp=1/lp=1/l and p=2L1/c1p=2L_1/c_1p=2L1​/c1​.

Significance

The result. Global convergence theorems for line-search methods usually stop at "every accumulation point is a zero". The attraction theorem upgrades that to convergence of the entire sequence whenever the zero is BD-regular, under assumptions that are checked locally and that hold for several algorithms at once. For the damped Newton method it removes the semismoothness assumption needed for the superlinear local theory, at the price of saying nothing about the rate. The same pattern (local error bound plus residual-controlled steps gives capture) recurs in the convergence analysis of Levenberg–Marquardt and projection-type methods.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. The formalization needs the one-sided directional derivative and B-differentiability, the passage from BD-regularity to a uniform constant, and the trapping argument for sequences with cluster points. These pieces are reusable for any convergence proof of nonsmooth Newton-type methods.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says: near x∗x^*x∗, steps are small because ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥ is small, so the iterates cannot leave. This fails as stated: a small residual at xkx^kxk does not by itself prevent xkx^kxk from being far from x∗x^*x∗, and without a lower bound of ∥F(x)∥\|F(x)\|∥F(x)∥ in terms of ∥x−x∗∥\|x-x^*\|∥x−x∗∥ the iterates could drift along a set where FFF is small. The step that needs work is the error bound (5.5), which requires a uniform constant from the pointwise condition F′(x∗;h)≠0F'(x^*;h)\ne0F′(x∗;h)=0, valid in a whole neighbourhood of x∗x^*x∗ and not only along the directions the iterates happen to take. The set N(x∗,ϵ)N(x^*,\epsilon)N(x∗,ϵ) must also be chosen so that both its defining inequalities are preserved, which ties the radius to the residual through 2c+sp2c+sp2c+sp.

Formalization scope

Points of Rn\mathbb R^nRn are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n); norms are 2-norms; n=0n=0n=0 is allowed. The directional derivative is the published one-sided NonsmoothNewton.Local.dirDeriv; every statement that evaluates it does so at a point where existence is assumed (BD-regularity, B-differentiability), so the junk value of an undefined limit never enters. "Limiting point" is a cluster point of the sequence, not its limit. Condition (5.2) is assumed only for iterates within δ1\delta_1δ1​ of x∗x^*x∗, as on the page.

Standing assumption and added hypotheses:

  • local Lipschitz continuity of FFF (§1 of the paper) is a hypothesis of every theorem;
  • αk≥0\alpha_k\ge 0αk​≥0 for all kkk is added in Theorem 5.1 and the trapping step: "descent direction method" carries nonnegative steps implicitly, and the proof's bound αk∥dk∥≤sp∥F(xk)∥\alpha_k\|d^k\|\le sp\|F(x^k)\|αk​∥dk∥≤sp∥F(xk)∥ needs it;
  • in the second Han–Pang–Rangaraj bound, c1>0c_1>0c1​>0 is stated (the page divides by it), the codomain of GGG is Rn\mathbb R^nRn (the page prints R\mathcal RR), and the constant is 2L1/c12L_1/c_12L1​/c1​ (the page's display has cL1/c1cL_1/c_1cL1​/c1​ before setting p=2L1/c1p=2L_1/c_1p=2L1​/c1​).

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the goal does not assume that xkx^kxk converges, that {xk}\{x^k\}{xk} is bounded, that (5.2) holds globally, or that FFF is semismooth; the hypotheses are jointly satisfiable (for F=idF=\mathrm{id}F=id, xk=2−kvx^{k}=2^{-k}vxk=2−kv, dk=−xkd^k=-x^kdk=−xk, αk=12\alpha_k=\tfrac12αk​=21​).

Definitions needed: directional differentiability, B-differentiability, BD-regularity, and for Corollary 5.2 the norm function, the Armijo test (4.1) and runs of Algorithm 4.1. Contributions to the general theory of one-sided directional derivatives of locally Lipschitz maps (Lipschitz continuity and positive homogeneity of F′(x;⋅)F'(x;\cdot)F′(x;⋅)) are welcome and will serve the companion missions of this series.

Selected references

  • L. Qi, Convergence analysis of some algorithms for solving nonsmooth equations, Mathematics of Operations Research 18(1):227–244, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.18.1.227
  • L. Qi and J. Sun, A nonsmooth version of Newton's method, Mathematical Programming 58:353–367, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581275
  • J.-S. Pang, Newton's method for B-differentiable equations, Mathematics of Operations Research 15(2):311–341, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.2.311
  • S.-P. Han, J.-S. Pang and N. Rangaraj, Globally convergent Newton methods for nonsmooth equations, Mathematics of Operations Research 17(3):586–607, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.17.3.586
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 7: Without Gross Substitutes a Market with Two Firms and Three Workers Has No Core AllocationResearch Paper

Motivation

In a labor market where firms hire sets of workers and salaries are negotiated pair by pair, the natural stability notion is the core: an assignment of workers to firms, with salaries, that no firm and group of workers can improve upon by agreeing among themselves. Kelso and Crawford (Econometrica 50 (1982) 1483–1504) proved that the core is nonempty, and that an ascending salary-adjustment process reaches it, when every firm regards workers as gross substitutes (GS): raising some workers' salaries never makes a firm withdraw an offer from a worker whose salary has not risen. The condition later became central to the theory of matching with contracts, combinatorial auctions and Walrasian equilibrium with indivisible goods (Gul and Stacchetti, J. Econ. Theory 87 (1999); Hatfield and Milgrom, Amer. Econ. Rev. 95 (2005)).

The question this mission addresses is whether (GS) is needed at all. Section 6 of the paper answers it with a concrete market with two firms and three workers in which every other assumption of the paper holds, each firm's technology is even subadditive, and the core is empty.

Setting

There are workers i∈Wi \in Wi∈W and firms j∈Fj \in Fj∈F, both finite. Worker iii's utility of working for firm jjj at salary sss is ui(j;s)u^i(j; s)ui(j;s); firm jjj produces yj(C)y^j(C)yj(C) with the set of workers CCC, and its profit at the salary vector sj=(sij)is^j = (s_{ij})_isj=(sij​)i​ is

πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−∑i∈Csij.\pi^j(C; s^j) = y^j(C) - \sum_{i \in C} s_{ij}.πj(C;sj)=yj(C)−i∈C∑​sij​.

A set CCC is demanded at sjs^jsj if it maximizes πj(⋅ ;sj)\pi^j(\cdot\,; s^j)πj(⋅;sj). Each pair has a reservation salary σij\sigma_{ij}σij​.

An allocation assigns each worker iii to a firm f(i)f(i)f(i) with salary sif(i)s_{if(i)}sif(i)​; Cj=f−1(j)C^j = f^{-1}(j)Cj=f−1(j). It is individually rational if sif(i)≥σif(i)s_{if(i)} \ge \sigma_{if(i)}sif(i)​≥σif(i)​ and πj(Cj;sj)≥0\pi^j(C^j; s^j) \ge 0πj(Cj;sj)≥0 for all iii, jjj. A firm jjj and a set CCC of workers strictly improve upon it if some salaries rijr_{ij}rij​ give every i∈Ci \in Ci∈C strictly more utility than at the allocation and give firm jjj strictly more profit than πj(Cj;sj)\pi^j(C^j; s^j)πj(Cj;sj). A core allocation (definition D3 of the paper) is an individually rational allocation that no such coalition can strictly improve upon. When salaries vary continuously, the rijr_{ij}rij​ range over R\mathbb{R}R.

The example. Workers 1,2,31, 2, 31,2,3; firms j,kj, kj,k; σij=σik=0\sigma_{ij} = \sigma_{ik} = 0σij​=σik​=0; ui(j;s)=ui(k;s)=su^i(j; s) = u^i(k; s) = sui(j;s)=ui(k;s)=s (equation (23)); and

CCC∅\emptyset∅{1}\{1\}{1}{2}\{2\}{2}{3}\{3\}{3}{1,2}\{1,2\}{1,2}{1,3}\{1,3\}{1,3}{2,3}\{2,3\}{2,3}{1,2,3}\{1,2,3\}{1,2,3}
yj(C)y^j(C)yj(C)0004444444144\tfrac14441​7127\tfrac12721​777777999
yk(C)y^k(C)yk(C)0004144\tfrac14441​4444447777777127\tfrac12721​999

Firm kkk is firm jjj with workers 111 and 333 interchanged. In Lean, noCoreMarket : Market (Fin 3) (Fin 2) is this market, techJ and techK are the two technologies, and Market.IsCore anySalary is D3 with real salaries.

Formalization targets

Goal: the example has no core allocation

¬ ∃A, A is a core allocation of the example with continuously variable salaries.\neg\,\exists A,\ A \text{ is a core allocation of the example with continuously variable salaries.}¬∃A, A is a core allocation of the example with continuously variable salaries.

Milestones, in the order the paper uses them

  1. At sj=(3,3,3)s^j = (3,3,3)sj=(3,3,3) firm jjj's unique demanded set is {1,2}\{1,2\}{1,2} (profit 1121\tfrac12121​); at s~j=(3,4,3)\tilde s^j = (3,4,3)s~j=(3,4,3) it is {3}\{3\}{3} (profit 1141\tfrac14141​).
  2. Firm jjj's technology is subadditive and satisfies (MP) and (NFL) with σij=0\sigma_{ij} = 0σij​=0, but violates (GS).
  3. In any market with ui(j;s)=su^i(j; s) = sui(j;s)=s and σ=0\sigma = 0σ=0, every core allocation maximizes total product ∑jyj(f−1(j))\sum_j y^j(f^{-1}(j))∑j​yj(f−1(j)) over all assignments.
  4. In the example the maximal total product is 111211\tfrac121121​, attained exactly by j←{1}, k←{2,3}j \leftarrow \{1\},\ k \leftarrow \{2,3\}j←{1}, k←{2,3} and by j←{1,2}, k←{3}j \leftarrow \{1,2\},\ k \leftarrow \{3\}j←{1,2}, k←{3}.
  5. For the first of these assignments, if the coalitions (j;{3})(j;\{3\})(j;{3}), (j;{1,2})(j;\{1,2\})(j;{1,2}), (k;{1})(k;\{1\})(k;{1}), (k;{3})(k;\{3\})(k;{3}) cannot strictly improve, inequalities (24)–(27) hold.
  6. Hence the first assignment carries no core allocation (s2k=312s_{2k} = 3\tfrac12s2k​=321​ is forced and (24′), (26′) contradict each other).

The goal then follows by the symmetry of the example.

Significance

The paper's existence results (Theorems 1 and 2: the salary-adjustment process converges to a core allocation; a strict core allocation exists with continuous salaries) all assume (GS). This example shows that the assumption cannot simply be dropped, and that the weaker and more familiar condition of subadditivity does not replace it once there are three or more workers, although it does with two (p. 1500). It is the reason gross substitutes, rather than a convexity-like condition on technologies, became the standard hypothesis for existence of equilibrium with indivisibilities.

The result is proved in the paper by a short computation. It has not been machine-checked before: nothing of this paper was on Prove2Me before this series. The mission contributes a checked counterexample, a general efficiency lemma for core allocations with transferable utility (milestone 3), and the computational facts about firm jjj that show (GS) fails. The paper's further remark that the example also has no competitive equilibrium relies on the core–equilibrium equivalence of p. 1487 and is not part of this mission.

This is mission 7 of a series on the same paper; missions 1–6 treat the salary-adjustment process (1), the continuous strict core (2), one-sided markets (3), the firm-optimal allocation (4), comparative statics (5) and the characterization of (GS) for identical workers (6). This mission does not depend on them.

Difficulty

The obstacle is the quantifier over all allocations with real salaries: emptiness of the core is a claim about infinitely many candidates, and checking finitely many salary vectors proves nothing. A direct attempt to find an improving coalition for each allocation by case analysis on salaries does not close, because which coalition improves depends on the salaries. The printed inequality (24) also carries a sign misprint (≤\le≤ in place of ≥\ge≥), and copying it would break the contradiction.

Formalization scope

  • Workers 1,2,31,2,31,2,3 are 0, 1, 2 : Fin 3; firms j,kj, kj,k are 0, 1 : Fin 2. 414=17/44\tfrac14 = 17/4441​=17/4 and 712=15/27\tfrac12 = 15/2721​=15/2.
  • An allocation is a total function from workers to firms with each worker's salary at his or her own firm; every worker is employed, as in D1. Individual rationality is part of "core allocation".
  • "Core" is D3 (no coalition can strictly improve), with real salaries ("when salaries can vary continuously"), not the strict core D2 and not a discrete grid.
  • "Unique preferred set" is stated as: a set is profit-maximizing over all eight subsets iff it equals the named set.
  • (GS) "fails" is the negation of (GS) for firm jjj over all real salary vectors.
  • Inequality (24) is formalized as 4−s1j+s3k≥4144 - s_{1j} + s_{3k} \ge 4\tfrac144−s1j​+s3k​≥441​, the reading the paper's own (24′) requires; the milestone text keeps the printed version.
  • Milestone 3 is stated for every finite market with ui(j;s)=su^i(j; s) = sui(j;s)=s and σ=0\sigma = 0σ=0, the two properties the paper's sentence invokes.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the core includes individual rationality and real-valued coalition salaries, the technologies are the printed tables, milestones 1, 2 and 4 have no hypotheses, and the hypotheses of milestones 3 and 5 are each satisfiable.

Contributions welcome: proofs of each milestone, and a statement and proof of the symmetry (workers 1↔31 \leftrightarrow 31↔3, firms j↔kj \leftrightarrow kj↔k) used to exclude the second efficient assignment.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6), 1982, 1483–1504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913392
  • V. P. Crawford and E. M. Knoer, Job matching with heterogeneous firms and workers, Econometrica 49(2), 1981, 437–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913320
  • L. S. Shapley and M. Shubik, The assignment game I: the core, International Journal of Game Theory 1, 1971, 111–130. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753437
  • F. Gul and E. Stacchetti, Walrasian equilibrium with gross substitutes, Journal of Economic Theory 87, 1999, 95–124. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1999.2531
  • J. W. Hatfield and P. R. Milgrom, Matching with contracts, American Economic Review 95(4), 2005, 913–935. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825466
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 5: An Entering Firm Leaves Every Worker at Least as Well Off, and a Departing Worker Leaves Every Firm No Better OffResearch Paper

Why market entry and exit matter

Adding a firm changes the offers available to workers; removing a worker changes the pool from which firms hire. In markets with salary bargaining, those changes can alter both assignments and pay. Kelso and Crawford asked whether the direction of the change can nevertheless be predicted at the outcome selected by their salary-adjustment process. Their 1982 paper studies firms that may hire groups of workers whose joint product need not be the sum of individual products. Theorem 5 gives two comparative-statics conclusions for that setting: a new firm leaves each worker at least as well off, and retaining a worker leaves each firm at least as well off.

The result follows the paper's finite-termination and firm-optimality results for the salary-adjustment process. Its comparison is specific to the process equilibrium under the no-ties conditions of Section 5; the paper does not claim that every core allocation moves in the same direction. This mission is the fifth of seven on the paper. Mission 1 concerns termination and the discrete core, mission 2 the continuous strict core, mission 3 a one-sided market, mission 4 firm optimality, mission 6 returns to workers and gross substitutes, and mission 7 the example without a core. The statements here are drafted independently of the other missions' unpublished declarations. None of this paper's statements was previously available on Prove2Me when the series was planned.

The market and the adjustment process

A market has a finite set WWW of workers and a finite, nonempty set FFF of firms. Worker iii's utility from employment at firm jjj for salary sss is ui(j;s)u_i(j;s)ui​(j;s). Firm jjj produces yj(C)y^j(C)yj(C) from a set C⊆WC\subseteq WC⊆W and earns profit πj(C;s)=yj(C)−∑i∈Csi\pi^j(C;s)=y^j(C)-\sum_{i\in C}s_iπj(C;s)=yj(C)−∑i∈C​si​. Workers care about their own firm and salary; the firm's product may depend on the whole set it hires. Every worker–firm pair has a starting salary σij\sigma_{ij}σij​, and permitted salaries increase by a common unit δ>0\delta>0δ>0: σij+kδ\sigma_{ij}+k\deltaσij​+kδ for k∈Nk\in\mathbb Nk∈N.

Each round of the salary-adjustment process records permitted salaries, offers from firms, and one tentatively accepted offer for each worker who receives any. Firms choose profit-maximizing sets of workers at current permitted salaries and repeat offers that were not rejected. A worker keeps a favorite available offer. A rejected worker–firm offer causes that pair's permitted salary to rise by δ\deltaδ next round. The process stops when no offer is rejected. An allocation assigns each worker one firm and a salary at that firm; an outcome is the allocation read from a stopping round. The paper calls this a process equilibrium.

An allocation is in the discrete strict core when each worker's salary is permitted and meets the starting salary, each firm's profit is nonnegative, and no firm together with a set of workers can make every participant weakly better off and at least one strictly better off using permitted salaries. The weaker discrete core excludes coalitions that make everyone strictly better off. The paper assumes workers' utilities are continuous and strictly increasing in salary; marginal product (MP) makes hiring an additional worker at the starting salary weakly profitable; no free lunch (NFL) sets the product of the empty set to zero; and gross substitutes (GS) lets a firm keep workers whose salaries did not rise when other workers' salaries increase. Section 5 adds no-ties conditions (NTW) for workers and (NTF) for firms relative to discrete-core allocations. These assumptions and their domains come from Sections 2 and 5.

Formalization targets

The preliminary target is the paper's Corollary to Theorem 4: under these assumptions, all legal runs that stop have the same outcome. A second target is the new-firm-on-the-block process claim stated in the proof of Theorem 5: starting from the original market's final salaries, its outcome is a firm-optimal discrete strict core allocation of the augmented market.

The goal is Theorem 5. Write AAA, A+A^+A+ and A−A^-A− for stopping outcomes in the original market, the market augmented by one firm, and the market without one named worker. The two conclusions are

∀i∈W,ui(A)≤ui(A+),∀j∈F,πj(A−)≤πj(A).\forall i\in W,\quad u_i(A)\leq u_i(A^+),\qquad \forall j\in F,\quad \pi^j(A^-)\leq\pi^j(A).∀i∈W,ui​(A)≤ui​(A+),∀j∈F,πj(A−)≤πj(A).

The first comparison concerns every original worker's utility. The second concerns every original firm's profit. The augmented market retains the original firms' technologies, utilities and starting salaries, and the diminished market restricts those data to workers other than the removed one. All three markets use the same δ\deltaδ and satisfy the conditions of Theorem 4.

What the result establishes

The theorem gives a direction for the effects of entry and worker exit even though assignments and salaries may both change and a firm's product may depend on its entire workforce. The comparisons are individual: every worker is covered by the entry conclusion and every firm by the exit conclusion. Process uniqueness makes these comparisons well-defined despite the choices of favorite sets and favorite offers that a legal run may make.

The mathematical claims were proved in the 1982 paper; the Lean statements in this mission are open proof obligations. The formal development would give reusable finite-market definitions of demand, gross substitutes, core blocking, and an explicit adjustment run. It would also make precise how outcomes in markets with different agent sets are compared. The Corollary and the new-firm process result are separate proof targets. Completing them would support the goal while keeping the paper's two comparative-statics conclusions together.

The main difficulty

Firm entry changes which firm can make the best offer, and worker exit changes which subsets of workers a firm can hire profitably. A direct pointwise comparison of old and new assignments has no fixed correspondence: a worker may switch firms and a firm may hire a different group. Comparing arbitrary strict-core allocations is also insufficient, because Theorem 5 concerns the specific outcome chosen by the adjustment process. The formal proof must account for all legal tie choices and show that the identified stopping outcomes have the required utility and profit order. The paper's proof uses two modified processes; its take-my-marbles process raises the removed worker's salary to a value that need not belong to the discrete salary grid on which (GS) was assumed. This is a genuine modeling boundary for that intermediate statement.

Formalization scope

Workers and firms are finite Lean types, with at least one firm. Salaries, utilities and products are real-valued; δ\deltaδ is positive. An allocation assigns every worker to a firm, as the paper's f:{1,…,m}→{1,…,n}f:\{1,\ldots,m\}\to\{1,\ldots,n\}f:{1,…,m}→{1,…,n} does. Option F represents firm entry: some j is an original firm and none is the entrant. The diminished worker set is the subtype of workers unequal to the removed worker. Gross substitutes is imposed only on the grid vectors each market permits, and (NTW) and (NTF) quantify over discrete-core allocations. Each theorem's assumptions explicitly include utility regularity, MP, NFL, GS, NTW and NTF wherever the paper says “the conditions of Theorem 4.” Section 5 allows starting salaries to vary independently of unemployment utility, so the reservation-salary equation from Section 2 is not imposed.

“The equilibrium” is represented by the outcome at any stopping round of any legal run; the Corollary states why this does not depend on those choices. “Converges in finite time” in the new-firm milestone means that each legal continuation has some stopping round. NFB's initial offers are fixed to the old firms' final offers and an offer from the new firm to every worker, a reading of the first round that NFB1 leaves implicit. The take-my-marbles convergence claim is not drafted because its off-grid starting salary requires a separate convention or a stronger GS assumption. These commitments exclude a vacuous market condition, a continuous-price substitution for the discrete theorem, and a comparison of unrelated markets. Contributions that establish the Corollary, the NFB claim, or the three-market comparison under these definitions are welcome; lemmas about demand and core allocation can be reused across the series.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6), 1982, pp. 1483–1504. DOI: 10.2307/1913392.
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

The Weighted Majority Algorithm 5: With Pool Predictions in [0,1], the Binary Master WMG Makes at Most log(w_init/w_fin)/log(2/(1+β)) MistakesResearch Paper

Motivation

Prediction with expert advice asks how a learner should combine the forecasts of a pool of prediction algorithms when nothing is assumed about the data: the instances and labels may be chosen by an adversary, and the learner's performance is compared with that of the pool. Littlestone and Warmuth's The Weighted Majority Algorithm (Inform. and Comput. 108, 1994) introduced the multiplicative-weights master algorithm WM for binary pool predictions and proved that its number of mistakes is at most logarithmic in the pool size plus a constant times the mistakes of the best pool member. The same multiplicative update now underlies boosting, online convex optimization and approximate solvers for linear programs and zero-sum games (Arora, Hazan, Kale 2012).

In many applications the pool members do not output a bit but a degree of confidence in [0,1][0,1][0,1], while the master must still commit to a binary decision. Section 5 of the paper treats exactly this setting with the algorithm WMG, and shows that WM's mistake bound survives unchanged.

Setting

A nonempty pool of nnn prediction algorithms is run on a finite sequence of trials. In trial kkk the pool member iii predicts xk,i∈[0,1]x_{k,i}\in[0,1]xk,i​∈[0,1], the master predicts λk∈{0,1}\lambda_k\in\{0,1\}λk​∈{0,1}, and then the binary label ρk∈{0,1}\rho_k\in\{0,1\}ρk​∈{0,1} is revealed. The master keeps a non-negative weight wk,iw_{k,i}wk,i​ per pool member, with positive initial weights. Write

sk=∑i=1nwk,i,γk=∑i=1nwk,i xk,isk,s_k=\sum_{i=1}^n w_{k,i},\qquad \gamma_k=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^n w_{k,i}\,x_{k,i}}{s_k},sk​=i=1∑n​wk,i​,γk​=sk​∑i=1n​wk,i​xk,i​​,

and winit=s0w_{\mathrm{init}}=s_0winit​=s0​, wfinw_{\mathrm{fin}}wfin​ the total weight after the last trial.

WMG with parameter 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1 predicts λk=1\lambda_k=1λk​=1 if γk>1/2\gamma_k>1/2γk​>1/2 and λk=0\lambda_k=0λk​=0 if γk<1/2\gamma_k<1/2γk​<1/2; at γk=1/2\gamma_k=1/2γk​=1/2 either prediction is allowed. A mistake is a trial with λk≠ρk\lambda_k\ne\rho_kλk​=ρk​, and mmm is the number of mistakes. An update step multiplies every weight by a factor

wk+1,i=F wk,i,β∣xk,i−ρk∣≤F≤1−(1−β) ∣xk,i−ρk∣(5.1)w_{k+1,i}=F\,w_{k,i},\qquad \beta^{|x_{k,i}-\rho_k|}\le F\le 1-(1-\beta)\,|x_{k,i}-\rho_k| \tag{5.1}wk+1,i​=Fwk,i​,β∣xk,i​−ρk​∣≤F≤1−(1−β)∣xk,i​−ρk​∣(5.1)

with 00=10^0=100=1. WMG executes an update step in every trial, or only in mistake trials; more generally (footnote 8 of the paper) in every mistake trial and possibly in others. Outside update steps the weights do not change. When the xk,ix_{k,i}xk,i​ are binary, WMG coincides with WM.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1 (pp. 234–235)

For every run of WMG with 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1, whatever the tie-breaking, the update criterion and the factors in (5.1), if wfin>0w_{\mathrm{fin}}>0wfin​>0 then

m≤ln⁡(winit/wfin)ln⁡(2/(1+β)).m\le\frac{\ln(w_{\mathrm{init}}/w_{\mathrm{fin}})}{\ln\bigl(2/(1+\beta)\bigr)}.m≤ln(2/(1+β))ln(winit​/wfin​)​.

The bound involves only the total weights, not the losses of individual pool members; Corollary 5.1 of the paper, which compares mmm with the total absolute loss mim_imi​ of each pool member, follows from it and from the lower bound in (5.1).

Milestones

  1. Appendix, p. 256. In a mistake trial the total weight drops by at least a factor (1+β)/2(1+\beta)/2(1+β)/2: sk+1≤1+β2sks_{k+1}\le\frac{1+\beta}{2}s_ksk+1​≤21+β​sk​.
  2. §5, p. 235. Unless β=0\beta=0β=0 and ∣γk−ρk∣=1|\gamma_k-\rho_k|=1∣γk​−ρk​∣=1 in some update trial,
∑k updateln⁡(1−(1−β)∣γk−ρk∣)≤∑k mistakeln⁡(1−(1−β)∣γk−ρk∣)≤mln⁡(12+12β).\sum_{k\ \text{update}}\ln\bigl(1-(1-\beta)|\gamma_k-\rho_k|\bigr)\le\sum_{k\ \text{mistake}}\ln\bigl(1-(1-\beta)|\gamma_k-\rho_k|\bigr)\le m\ln\bigl(\tfrac12+\tfrac12\beta\bigr).k update∑​ln(1−(1−β)∣γk​−ρk​∣)≤k mistake∑​ln(1−(1−β)∣γk​−ρk​∣)≤mln(21​+21​β).

The paper gives two proofs of Theorem 5.1, one through each milestone; the second also uses Lemma 5.2, the potential lemma shared with the continuous master WMC, which is posed in the companion mission on WMC.

Significance

Theorem 5.1 says that the master's mistake count is controlled by how much total weight the pool loses, with the same constant 1/ln⁡(2/(1+β))1/\ln(2/(1+\beta))1/ln(2/(1+β)) as for binary pools. With equal initial weights it gives Corollary 5.1: WMG makes at most (log⁡n+milog⁡(1/β))/log⁡(2/(1+β))(\log n+m_i\log(1/\beta))/\log(2/(1+\beta))(logn+mi​log(1/β))/log(2/(1+β)) mistakes for every pool member iii, so pool members may report graded confidences at no cost in the master's guarantee. The same weight-potential argument is the template for the randomized master WMR of §6 and for later analyses of exponential weights.

The result is classical and proved in the paper. What this mission adds is a machine-checked statement and proof against the paper's own model: a relation that covers both update criteria, all tie-breaks at γ=1/2\gamma=1/2γ=1/2 and the whole interval of admissible factors, rather than a single deterministic instance. No formalization of WMG or of Theorem 5.1 is known; the platform's existing weighted-majority results (Hazan's textbook version) concern binary experts, unit initial weights and a fixed update factor.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, copied from WM, tracks the weight q0q_0q0​ of members predicting 000 and the weight q1q_1q1​ of members predicting 111. With predictions in [0,1][0,1][0,1] a member supports both outcomes, and the update factor is only constrained to an interval, so the two-bucket bookkeeping must be redone for fractional contributions. The factor's upper bound 1−(1−β)r1-(1-\beta)r1−(1−β)r is affine in r=∣x−ρ∣r=|x-\rho|r=∣x−ρ∣, while the natural exponential factor βr\beta^rβr is convex; the argument must use the right one of the two bounds of (5.1). A further subtlety is the case β=0\beta=0β=0: a factor may be 000, the total weight can vanish, and both the logarithmic bound and the weighted average γ\gammaγ degenerate.

Formalization scope

  • The pool is Fin n with n>0n>0n>0, and the trials are Fin T, all trials of the sequence; weights are w : ℕ → Fin n → ℝ, with w 0 the initial and w T the final weights.
  • Pool predictions are real numbers in [0,1][0,1][0,1], labels and master predictions are real numbers in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}.
  • The update criterion is a Boolean flag per trial that must be set in every mistake trial; the factor is an arbitrary real number in the interval (5.1) for each trial and member, where βr\beta^{r}βr is Real.rpow (so 00=10^0=100=1).
  • The paper writes a ratio of logarithms with the base omitted; Real.log is used.
  • The case wfin=0w_{\mathrm{fin}}=0wfin​=0, where the paper's bound is +∞+\infty+∞, is excluded by the hypothesis 0<wfin0<w_{\mathrm{fin}}0<wfin​. Without it, Lean's Real.log 0 = 0 would turn the paper's vacuous bound into the false claim m≤0m\le0m≤0; with it, no Lean junk value enters the statement.
  • The goal must be stated for the relation, not for a single run: fixing the tie-break, updating in every trial only, or fixing FFF to one endpoint of (5.1) would state a special case. Stating the theorem only for binary pool predictions would state Theorem 2.1 instead.

A complete development needs only finite sums, real logarithms and real powers from Mathlib. Proofs of either milestone, of the existence of a run for every input (using Lemma 5.1, βr≤1+r(β−1)\beta^r\le1+r(\beta-1)βr≤1+r(β−1)), and of Corollary 5.1 on top of the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Littlestone, M. K. Warmuth, The Weighted Majority Algorithm, Information and Computation 108(2), 212–261, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1006/inco.1994.1009
  • N. Littlestone, M. K. Warmuth, The Weighted Majority Algorithm, Proc. 30th IEEE FOCS, 256–261, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/SFCS.1989.63487
  • V. Vovk, Aggregating Strategies, Proc. 3rd COLT, 371–383, 1990. https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/92571.92672
  • S. Arora, E. Hazan, S. Kale, The Multiplicative Weights Update Method: a Meta-Algorithm and Applications, Theory of Computing 8, 121–164, 2012. https://doi.org/10.4086/toc.2012.v008a006
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Potential Games 4: An Efficient Solution Is the Shapley Value on the Subgames of v If and Only If the Participation Game Γ(ψ, c, v) Is a Potential GameResearch Paper

Motivation

The Shapley value (Shapley 1953) is the most widely used single-valued solution of cooperative games with transferable utility. It is usually justified axiomatically, from cooperative principles. A recurring question in game theory, sometimes called the Nash program, asks whether cooperative solution concepts can also be recovered from the strategic behaviour of players in a non-cooperative game.

Section 6 of Monderer and Shapley, Potential Games (Games and Economic Behavior 14, 1996), gives such a recovery through the notion of a potential game, the central object of that paper. With every solution ψ\psiψ, vector of outside options ccc and TU game vvv it associates a simple non-cooperative participation game, in which each player decides whether to join. The Shapley value is then characterised, among efficient solutions, as exactly the solution for which every such participation game is a potential game. The characterisation rests on the potential of a TU game introduced by Hart and Mas-Colell (1989), whose marginal contributions are the Shapley value; Monderer and Shapley connect that cooperative potential to the strategic one of their paper.

Setting

Let N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n} be a finite set of players.

A game in strategic form Γ(u1,…,un)\Gamma(u^1, \dots, u^n)Γ(u1,…,un) has strategy sets YiY^iYi and payoff functions ui:Y→Ru^i : Y \to \mathbb Rui:Y→R on Y=Y1×⋯×YnY = Y^1 \times \dots \times Y^nY=Y1×⋯×Yn. Writing (y−i,x)(y^{-i}, x)(y−i,x) for the profile yyy with player iii's strategy replaced by xxx, a function P:Y→RP : Y \to \mathbb RP:Y→R is an exact potential if

ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z)u^i(y^{-i}, x) - u^i(y^{-i}, z) = P(y^{-i}, x) - P(y^{-i}, z)ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z)

for every iii, every y−iy^{-i}y−i and all x,z∈Yix, z \in Y^ix,z∈Yi (condition (2.2) with unit weights). A game with an exact potential is a potential game.

For a coalition S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, G(S)G(S)G(S) is the space of TU games on SSS: real functions vvv on the subsets of SSS with v(∅)=0v(\emptyset) = 0v(∅)=0. A solution ψ\psiψ assigns to every v∈G(S)v \in G(S)v∈G(S) a payoff vector ψ(v)∈RS\psi(v) \in \mathbb R^Sψ(v)∈RS. It is efficient if ∑i∈Sψ(v)(i)=v(S)\sum_{i \in S} \psi(v)(i) = v(S)∑i∈S​ψ(v)(i)=v(S) for every SSS and every v∈G(S)v \in G(S)v∈G(S). For v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N), vS∈G(S)v_S \in G(S)vS​∈G(S) is its restriction to the subsets of SSS. The Shapley value of w∈G(S)w \in G(S)w∈G(S) is

φi(w)=∑T⊆S∖{i}∣T∣! (∣S∣−∣T∣−1)!∣S∣!(w(T∪{i})−w(T)),i∈S.\varphi_i(w) = \sum_{T \subseteq S \setminus \{i\}} \frac{|T|!\,(|S|-|T|-1)!}{|S|!}\bigl(w(T \cup \{i\}) - w(T)\bigr), \qquad i \in S.φi​(w)=T⊆S∖{i}∑​∣S∣!∣T∣!(∣S∣−∣T∣−1)!​(w(T∪{i})−w(T)),i∈S.

Given a solution ψ\psiψ, a vector c∈RNc \in \mathbb R^Nc∈RN and v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N), the participation game Γ(ψ,c,v)\Gamma(\psi, c, v)Γ(ψ,c,v) has player set NNN and strategy sets Yi={0,1}Y^i = \{0, 1\}Yi={0,1}. Player iii either stays out (0) and receives cic^ici, or participates (1). With S(ε)={i:εi=1}S(\varepsilon) = \{i : \varepsilon^i = 1\}S(ε)={i:εi=1} the set of participants at the profile ε\varepsilonε,

ui(ε)={ci,εi=0,ψ(vS(ε))(i),εi=1.u^i(\varepsilon) = \begin{cases} c^i, & \varepsilon^i = 0,\\ \psi(v_{S(\varepsilon)})(i), & \varepsilon^i = 1.\end{cases}ui(ε)={ci,ψ(vS(ε)​)(i),​εi=0,εi=1.​

For S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, εS\varepsilon_SεS​ is the profile in which exactly the members of SSS participate.

In Lean these are IsPotential, IsPotentialGame, Solution, IsEfficient, shapleyOn, joiners (S(ε)S(\varepsilon)S(ε)), profileOf (εS\varepsilon_SεS​) and participationPayoff, all in the namespace MondererShapley.Participation.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6.1 (p. 137)

For every efficient solution ψ\psiψ, every c∈RNc \in \mathbb R^Nc∈RN and every v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N),

ψ(vS)(i)=φi(vS)  ∀S⊆N, ∀i∈S⟺Γ(ψ,c,v) is a potential game.\psi(v_S)(i) = \varphi_i(v_S)\ \ \forall S \subseteq N,\ \forall i \in S \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \Gamma(\psi, c, v)\ \text{is a potential game}.ψ(vS​)(i)=φi​(vS​)  ∀S⊆N, ∀i∈S⟺Γ(ψ,c,v) is a potential game.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 6.1, p. 137)

  1. (6.1) For every iii and ε\varepsilonε, with S={j≠i:εj=1}S = \{j \ne i : \varepsilon^j = 1\}S={j=i:εj=1},
ui(ε−i,1)−ui(ε−i,0)=ψ(vS∪{i})(i)−ci.u^i(\varepsilon^{-i}, 1) - u^i(\varepsilon^{-i}, 0) = \psi(v_{S \cup \{i\}})(i) - c^i.ui(ε−i,1)−ui(ε−i,0)=ψ(vS∪{i}​)(i)−ci.
  1. (6.2) Γ(ψ,c,v)\Gamma(\psi, c, v)Γ(ψ,c,v) is a potential game iff there is Q:Y→RQ : Y \to \mathbb RQ:Y→R with Q(εS)−Q(εS∖{i})=ψ(vS∪{i})(i)−ciQ(\varepsilon_S) - Q(\varepsilon_{S \setminus \{i\}}) = \psi(v_{S\cup\{i\}})(i) - c^iQ(εS​)−Q(εS∖{i}​)=ψ(vS∪{i}​)(i)−ci for every SSS and i∈Si \in Si∈S.
  2. (6.3) With P(εS)=Q(εS)+∑i∈SciP(\varepsilon_S) = Q(\varepsilon_S) + \sum_{i \in S} c^iP(εS​)=Q(εS​)+∑i∈S​ci, QQQ satisfies (6.2) iff P(εS)−P(εS∖{i})=ψ(vS∪{i})(i)P(\varepsilon_S) - P(\varepsilon_{S\setminus\{i\}}) = \psi(v_{S\cup\{i\}})(i)P(εS​)−P(εS∖{i}​)=ψ(vS∪{i}​)(i) for every SSS and i∈Si \in Si∈S.
  3. The last step of the proof. For efficient ψ\psiψ and v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N), a function PPP on coalitions satisfying (6.3) exists iff ψ(vS)(i)=φi(vS)\psi(v_S)(i) = \varphi_i(v_S)ψ(vS​)(i)=φi​(vS​) for all SSS and i∈Si \in Si∈S. The paper obtains this from Theorem A of Hart and Mas-Colell (1989); that theorem is not a result of this paper.

Further: Theorem 6.2 (p. 137)

An efficient ψ\psiψ is the Shapley value on all of G=⋃SG(S)G = \bigcup_S G(S)G=⋃S​G(S) iff Γ(ψ,c,v)\Gamma(\psi, c, v)Γ(ψ,c,v) is a potential game for every v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N).

Significance

Theorem 6.1 is a local characterisation: for a single game vvv it identifies the Shapley value of all subgames of vvv through a property of one non-cooperative game, for any outside options ccc. Theorem 6.2 turns it into a global axiomatisation of the Shapley value among efficient solutions, with "every participation game has a potential" in place of the usual symmetry, null-player and additivity axioms. It links the cooperative potential of Hart and Mas-Colell to the strategic potentials of Monderer and Shapley, and through the latter to the existence of pure equilibria and the convergence of improvement dynamics in the participation games.

Both theorems are proved in the paper, on the basis of Hart and Mas-Colell's Theorem A. To the curators' knowledge no machine-checked proof exists: neither the Hart–Mas-Colell potential nor its identification with the Shapley value of subgames is formalized on Prove2Me or in Mathlib. A complete development therefore formalizes the paper's reduction (milestones 1–3) and, as its substantial part, the Hart–Mas-Colell characterisation (milestone 4), which is reusable for any later work on cooperative potentials, consistency and the Shapley value.

Difficulty

Milestones 1–3 are bookkeeping on profiles in {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N; the obstacle is the identification of the potential of a game on {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N with a function of coalitions, which is a translation between two indexings rather than an idea. The substance is milestone 4, which is Hart and Mas-Colell's Theorem A specialised to the subgames vSv_SvS​. The condition (6.3) speaks of marginal differences of an unknown function on coalitions, while the Shapley value is a closed weighted sum over subsets of SSS whose weights depend on ∣S∣|S|∣S∣; relating the two requires a genuine combinatorial identity over the subset lattice of every coalition, in both directions, and efficiency of ψ\psiψ on every subgame is used essentially. Unfolding the definitions does not suffice for either direction.

Formalization scope

  • Players are a finite type ι with decidable equality; the strategy set {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} is Bool (false = 0, true = 1). (ε−i,x)(\varepsilon^{-i}, x)(ε−i,x) is Function.update ε i x.
  • A coalition is a Finset ι; a TU game is w : Finset ι → ℝ, with "w∈G(S)w \in G(S)w∈G(S)" encoded as w ∅ = 0 and only the values on subsets of SSS meant. A solution is ψ : Finset ι → (Finset ι → ℝ) → ι → ℝ, ψ S w standing for ψ(w∣2S)\psi(w|_{2^S})ψ(w∣2S​); only the coordinates i∈Si \in Si∈S are read. This admits solutions that look at values of w outside 2S2^S2S, so the Lean statements cover every solution of the paper and more; "ψ\psiψ is the Shapley value on {vS}\{v_S\}{vS​}" is ∀ S, ∀ i ∈ S, ψ S v i = shapleyOn S v i.
  • Efficiency is required for every coalition and every game, not only for vvv, as in the paper.
  • The Shapley value formula shapleyOn is supplied: the paper uses the Shapley value without defining it. Its weights use ∣S∣|S|∣S∣, the size of the subgame's player set.
  • The page writes ψ(vS∪{i})\psi(v_{S\cup\{i\}})ψ(vS∪{i}​) with i∈Si \in Si∈S in (6.2) and (6.3); this equals ψ(vS)\psi(v_S)ψ(vS​) and is kept literally. The PPP of (6.3) is stated as a function of coalitions, P(S)P(S)P(S) for the page's P(εS)P(\varepsilon_S)P(εS​).
  • The outside options ccc are arbitrary reals; no sign or normalisation is assumed.
  • Trivializations ruled out: ψ\psiψ is an arbitrary efficient solution, never replaced by the Shapley value itself; v ∅ = 0 is kept as the meaning of v∈G(N)v \in G(N)v∈G(N) (without it, efficiency does not constrain ψ S v); and the potential is an exact potential on all of {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N, not only on profiles of a special form.
  • Welcome contributions: a general Hart–Mas-Colell potential for TU games, with its uniqueness and its identification with the Shapley value, stated so that it applies to subgames; proofs of milestones 1–3; Theorem 6.2 from Theorem 6.1.
  • Not included: Theorem 6.3 (weighted Shapley values), for which the paper gives no proof and does not define the weighted value.

Selected references

  • D. Monderer and L. S. Shapley, Potential Games, Games and Economic Behavior 14 (1996), 124–143. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1996.0044
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, Potential, Value, and Consistency, Econometrica 57 (1989), 589–614. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911054
  • L. S. Shapley, A Value for n-Person Games, in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28, Princeton University Press (1953), 307–317. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-018
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Large Deviations of Sums of Independent Random Variables 3: For Centered Summands and x ≥ 2B_n, P(S_n ≥ x) ≥ ½ΣP(X_j ≥ 2x)Research Paper

Motivation

The probability that a sum of independent random variables exceeds a large level is a central quantity in large deviation theory. It appears, for example, when relating tail assumptions on individual summands to the tail of their sum. For summands with light (exponentially decaying) tails, exponential bounds are often effective. For heavier tails, a large value of the sum can instead be produced by one large summand. Nagaev's survey studies bounds that make the contribution of such summands explicit.

S. V. Nagaev's survey Large deviations of sums of independent random variables, Ann. Probab. 7 (1979) collects upper bounds of this type. Its best-known result, the Fuk–Nagaev inequality (Theorem 1.3, p. 749), bounds P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) from above by ∑iP(Xi>yi)\sum_i P(X_i>y_i)∑i​P(Xi​>yi​) plus an explicit term built from truncated moments. Upper bounds alone do not show that the one-summand term is necessary. At the end of §1 (pp. 758–759) the paper gives a complementary lower bound that needs neither identical distributions nor regular variation of the tails, only centred summands with finite variances. This mission formalizes that lower bound and the steps of its proof.

Timeline. Fuk and Nagaev (1971) proved truncation inequalities of this kind; the survey refers to that paper for the proofs of its Theorems 1.1 and 1.2 (p. 752). A. V. Nagaev (1969) obtained the asymptotics of Theorem 1.9 (p. 753) for identically distributed, centred summands with tails 1−F(x)=l(x)x−t(1+o(1))1-F(x)=l(x)x^{-t}(1+o(1))1−F(x)=l(x)x−t(1+o(1)), t>2t>2t>2, lll slowly varying; in the range where one summand dominates, the survey's own argument gives P(Sn≥xn)=nP(X1≥xn)(1+o(1))P(S_n\ge x_n)=nP(X_1\ge x_n)(1+o(1))P(Sn​≥xn​)=nP(X1​≥xn​)(1+o(1)), display (1.46), p. 756. The lower bound treated here (1979, p. 759) drops both the identical-distribution and the regular-variation hypotheses in exchange for explicit constants (12\tfrac1221​, and 2x2x2x in place of xxx).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ independent real random variables on it. The paper writes

Sn=∑i=1nXi,σi2=Var⁡Xi,Bn2=∑i=1nσi2,Bn=(Bn2)1/2.S_n=\sum_{i=1}^n X_i,\qquad \sigma_i^2=\operatorname{Var}X_i,\qquad B_n^2=\sum_{i=1}^n\sigma_i^2,\qquad B_n=(B_n^2)^{1/2}.Sn​=i=1∑n​Xi​,σi2​=VarXi​,Bn2​=i=1∑n​σi2​,Bn​=(Bn2​)1/2.

Throughout, x>0x>0x>0 is the level (p. 747). For an index jjj, the sum without the jjj-th summand is

Snj=∑i≠jXi=Sn−Xj,S_n^j=\sum_{i\ne j}X_i=S_n-X_j ,Snj​=i=j∑​Xi​=Sn​−Xj​,

and the one-big-summand probability is

Pj=P(Sn≥x, Xj≥x, max⁡i≠jXi<x),P_j=P\Big(S_n\ge x,\ X_j\ge x,\ \max_{i\ne j}X_i<x\Big),Pj​=P(Sn​≥x, Xj​≥x, i=jmax​Xi​<x),

the probability that the sum reaches xxx while XjX_jXj​ is the only summand that does.

In the Lean development these are S n X, Sj n X j, Bn2 P X and Pj P X x j, in the namespace NagaevLD.LowerBound.

Formalization targets

Goal: the lower bound (p. 759, after (1.58))

Assume EXi=0EX_i=0EXi​=0 for every iii and Bn2<∞B_n^2<\inftyBn2​<∞. Then for x≥2Bnx\ge 2B_nx≥2Bn​

P(Sn≥x) ≥ 12∑j=1nP(Xj≥2x).P(S_n\ge x)\ \ge\ \frac12\sum_{j=1}^n P(X_j\ge 2x).P(Sn​≥x) ≥ 21​j=1∑n​P(Xj​≥2x).

Milestones (in the paper's order)

  1. (1.57), p. 758: P(Sn≥x)≥∑j=1nPj\displaystyle P(S_n\ge x)\ge\sum_{j=1}^n P_jP(Sn​≥x)≥j=1∑n​Pj​.
  2. The bound on PjP_jPj​, p. 758: Pj≥P(Xj≥2x) P(Snj≥−x, max⁡i≠jXi<x)P_j\ge P(X_j\ge 2x)\,P\big(S_n^j\ge -x,\ \max_{i\ne j}X_i<x\big)Pj​≥P(Xj​≥2x)P(Snj​≥−x, maxi=j​Xi​<x).
  3. "It is clear that", p. 759: P(Snj≥−x, max⁡i≠jXi<x)≥P(Snj≥−x)−P(max⁡i≠jXi≥x)P\big(S_n^j\ge -x,\ \max_{i\ne j}X_i<x\big)\ge P(S_n^j\ge -x)-P\big(\max_{i\ne j}X_i\ge x\big)P(Snj​≥−x, maxi=j​Xi​<x)≥P(Snj​≥−x)−P(maxi=j​Xi​≥x).
  4. First Chebyshev bound, p. 759: P(Snj≥−x)≥1−Bn2/x2P(S_n^j\ge -x)\ge 1-B_n^2/x^2P(Snj​≥−x)≥1−Bn2​/x2.
  5. Second Chebyshev bound, p. 759: P(max⁡i≠jXi≥x)≤Bn2/x2P\big(\max_{i\ne j}X_i\ge x\big)\le B_n^2/x^2P(maxi=j​Xi​≥x)≤Bn2​/x2.
  6. (1.58), p. 759: Pj≥12P(Xj≥2x)P_j\ge\tfrac12P(X_j\ge 2x)Pj​≥21​P(Xj​≥2x) if x≥2Bnx\ge 2B_nx≥2Bn​.

Significance

The result. Set beside the Fuk–Nagaev upper bound, the lower bound shows that in the range x≥2Bnx\ge 2B_nx≥2Bn​ the probability P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) is at least a fixed fraction of a one-summand term, 12∑jP(Xj≥2x)\tfrac12\sum_jP(X_j\ge 2x)21​∑j​P(Xj​≥2x), for any centred summands with finite variances. It is valid for every nnn and every family of independent, centred, square-integrable summands, with no asymptotic regime and no tail regularity. It is a non-asymptotic counterpart of the asymptotics P(Sn≥x)∼nP(X1≥x)P(S_n\ge x)\sim nP(X_1\ge x)P(Sn​≥x)∼nP(X1​≥x) for regularly varying tails, and it indicates that the term ∑iP(Xi>yi)\sum_iP(X_i>y_i)∑i​P(Xi​>yi​) in upper bounds of Fuk–Nagaev type cannot be removed.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the 1979 paper; the local Prove2Me catalogue search found no exact formal statement of this bound. A formal proof would produce a reusable lower bound for tails of sums of independent variables and the decomposition (1.57) into one-big-summand events, which applies to any family of real random variables.

Difficulty

The individual steps are short. The step that needs care is the bound on PjP_jPj​: it requires the event {Xj≥2x}\{X_j\ge 2x\}{Xj​≥2x} to be independent of the event {Snj≥−x, max⁡i≠jXi<x}\{S_n^j\ge -x,\ \max_{i\ne j}X_i<x\}{Snj​≥−x, maxi=j​Xi​<x}, which is generated by the other n−1n-1n−1 summands. Deriving this from mutual independence of X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ means grouping the summands into {j}\{j\}{j} and its complement and passing to a function of the complementary block. The first Chebyshev bound similarly needs the variance of SnjS_n^jSnj​ to equal ∑i≠jσi2\sum_{i\ne j}\sigma_i^2∑i=j​σi2​, again by independence of a sub-family. A naive union bound P(Sn≥x)≥P(Xj≥2x)−…P(S_n\ge x)\ge P(X_j\ge 2x)-\dotsP(Sn​≥x)≥P(Xj​≥2x)−… for one jjj alone does not give the sum over jjj: the decomposition into the disjoint events of (1.57) is what makes the sum appear.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. The summands are a family X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ on a probability space, measurable and mutually independent (iIndepFun); the paper's X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ are X 0, …, X (n-1). Probabilities are P.real of sets, with ≥\ge≥, >>> and <<< exactly as printed.
  • Bn2<∞B_n^2<\inftyBn2​<∞. The page's hypothesis is stated as square integrability of every summand (MemLp (X i) 2 P). Mathlib's variance returns 000 for a variable that is not square integrable, so without this hypothesis Bn2B_n^2Bn2​ could be 000 while the summands have infinite variance, and the goal would be false. EXi=0EX_i=0EXi​=0 is stated as ∫Xi dP=0\int X_i\,dP=0∫Xi​dP=0.
  • The maximum over i≠ji\ne ji=j. max⁡i≠jXi<x\max_{i\ne j}X_i<xmaxi=j​Xi​<x is written "Xi<xX_i<xXi​<x for every i≠ji\ne ji=j" and max⁡i≠jXi≥x\max_{i\ne j}X_i\ge xmaxi=j​Xi​≥x as "some i≠ji\ne ji=j has Xi≥xX_i\ge xXi​≥x", so the case n=1n=1n=1, where the maximum is over the empty set, needs no convention.
  • Printed slips. In the "It is clear that" step the page writes max⁡i≠jXi≤x\max_{i\ne j}X_i\le xmaxi=j​Xi​≤x and >x>x>x, while (1.57) uses <x<x<x. Milestones 3 and 5 are stated with <x<x<x and ≥x\ge x≥x, the form the argument uses; milestone 5 with ≥x\ge x≥x is stronger than the printed >x>x>x.
  • Minimal hypotheses. (1.57) and milestone 3 hold for any measurable family and are stated without independence or moments. The other statements carry the paper's standing assumptions (independence, x>0x>0x>0) and the hypotheses EXi=0EX_i=0EXi​=0, Bn2<∞B_n^2<\inftyBn2​<∞ of the page.
  • No trivialization. The hypotheses are satisfiable by every i.i.d. family with a centred square-integrable law, for instance Rademacher signs, so the goal is not vacuous; and BnB_nBn​ is the square root of the true sum of variances, not a free parameter.
  • Welcome contributions. Lemmas on independence of a single summand from a function of the remaining ones, and on the variance of a sub-sum of independent variables, are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • S. V. Nagaev, Large deviations of sums of independent random variables, Annals of Probability 7(5), 745–789, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176994938
  • D. Kh. Fuk and S. V. Nagaev, Probability inequalities for sums of independent random variables, Theory of Probability and Its Applications 16(4), 643–660, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116071
  • A. V. Nagaev, Limit theorems for large deviations where Cramér's conditions are violated (in Russian), Izv. Akad. Nauk UzSSR Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauk 6, 17–22, 1969 (reference [27] of the survey; no DOI).
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Numerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Convergence Properties of the Nelder–Mead Simplex Method in Low Dimensions II: In Dimension 1 with ρ = 1, the Interval Diameter Halves Every M Iterations, M Depending Only on χ and γResearch Paper

Motivation

The Nelder–Mead simplex method (Nelder and Mead, 1965) is a derivative-free method for unconstrained minimization. It keeps a simplex of n+1n+1n+1 points in Rn\mathbb R^nRn and replaces the worst vertex by a reflected, expanded or contracted trial point, using only comparisons of function values. It is one of the most widely used methods in practice, available in standard numerical libraries and scientific software, and it is also known for having very little supporting theory. McKinnon (1998) gave a strictly convex function in dimension 2 on which the method converges to a nonstationary point.

Lagarias, Reeds, Wright and Wright (1998) gave the first convergence results for the method as originally stated. In dimension 1 they proved that, for a strictly convex function with bounded level sets, both endpoints of the Nelder–Mead interval converge to the minimizer when ρχ≥1\rho\chi \ge 1ρχ≥1 (their Theorem 4.1). For the standard reflection coefficient ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1 they proved more: the convergence is eventually M-step linear, with a number of steps that depends only on the expansion and contraction coefficients (their Theorem 4.2). This mission formalizes that rate result and the move-sequence lemmas it rests on.

Setting

Let f:R→Rf:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rf:R→R. A one-dimensional simplex is a pair of vertices Δ=(x1,x2)\Delta = (x_1, x_2)Δ=(x1​,x2​) ordered so that f(x1)≤f(x2)f(x_1)\le f(x_2)f(x1​)≤f(x2​): x1x_1x1​ is the best and x2x_2x2​ the worst vertex. The method has four coefficients satisfying

ρ>0,χ>1,χ>ρ,0<γ<1,0<σ<1.(2.1)\rho>0,\qquad \chi>1,\qquad \chi>\rho,\qquad 0<\gamma<1,\qquad 0<\sigma<1. \tag{2.1}ρ>0,χ>1,χ>ρ,0<γ<1,0<σ<1.(2.1)

This mission fixes ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1, so (2.1) becomes χ>1\chi>1χ>1, 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1, 0<σ<10<\sigma<10<σ<1. The trial points are

xr=x1+(x1−x2),xe=x1+χ(x1−x2),xc=x1+γ(x1−x2),xcc=x1−γ(x1−x2).x_r = x_1 + (x_1-x_2),\quad x_e = x_1 + \chi(x_1-x_2),\quad x_c = x_1 + \gamma(x_1-x_2),\quad x_{cc} = x_1 - \gamma(x_1-x_2).xr​=x1​+(x1​−x2​),xe​=x1​+χ(x1​−x2​),xc​=x1​+γ(x1​−x2​),xcc​=x1​−γ(x1​−x2​).

With f1=f(x1)f_1=f(x_1)f1​=f(x1​), f2=f(x2)f_2=f(x_2)f2​=f(x2​), fr=f(xr)f_r=f(x_r)fr​=f(xr​) and so on, one iteration is:

  1. if fr<f1f_r<f_1fr​<f1​, an expansion accepting xex_exe​ when fe<frf_e<f_rfe​<fr​, and otherwise a reflection accepting xrx_rxr​;
  2. if f1≤fr<f2f_1\le f_r<f_2f1​≤fr​<f2​, an outside contraction accepting xcx_cxc​ when fc≤frf_c\le f_rfc​≤fr​, and otherwise a shrink;
  3. if fr≥f2f_r\ge f_2fr​≥f2​, an inside contraction accepting xccx_{cc}xcc​ when fcc<f2f_{cc}<f_2fcc​<f2​, and otherwise a shrink.

A shrink replaces x2x_2x2​ by x1+σ(x2−x1)x_1+\sigma(x_2-x_1)x1​+σ(x2​−x1​). The worst vertex is discarded and the accepted point vvv joins x1x_1x1​; it becomes the best vertex exactly when f(v)<f(x1)f(v)<f(x_1)f(v)<f(x1​). Iterating from a nondegenerate initial pair Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​ (x1≠x2x_1\neq x_2x1​=x2​) gives the run Δ0,Δ1,…\Delta_0,\Delta_1,\ldotsΔ0​,Δ1​,…, and diam⁡(Δk)=∣x1(k)−x2(k)∣\operatorname{diam}(\Delta_k) = |x_1^{(k)}-x_2^{(k)}|diam(Δk​)=∣x1(k)​−x2(k)​∣. A contraction means an outside or inside contraction.

Under ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1 each move multiplies the diameter by a fixed factor: 111 for a reflection, χ\chiχ for an expansion and γ\gammaγ for either contraction. The paper's bracketing index KKK (its Lemma 4.2) is the first iteration with f1(K)≤fe(K)f_1^{(K)}\le f_e^{(K)}f1(K)​≤fe(K)​. Two integers control the move sequences after KKK:

r∗=⌈χ−1⌉,j∗=max⁡{ j≥0:χ+χ2+⋯+χj<NNM },NNM=max⁡(χ,1/γ).r^* = \lceil\chi-1\rceil,\qquad j^* = \max\{\,j\ge 0 : \chi+\chi^2+\cdots+\chi^j < N_{NM}\,\},\qquad N_{NM} = \max(\chi,1/\gamma).r∗=⌈χ−1⌉,j∗=max{j≥0:χ+χ2+⋯+χj<NNM​},NNM​=max(χ,1/γ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 130)

For all χ>1\chi>1χ>1 and 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1 there is an integer MMM such that for every 0<σ<10<\sigma<10<σ<1, every strictly convex fff with bounded level sets and every nondegenerate ordered Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​, the index KKK exists and

diam⁡(Δk+M)≤12diam⁡(Δk)for all k≥K.\operatorname{diam}(\Delta_{k+M})\le \tfrac12\operatorname{diam}(\Delta_k)\qquad\text{for all }k\ge K.diam(Δk+M​)≤21​diam(Δk​)for all k≥K.

The goal fixes no value of MMM; the paper's proof gives one, but any MMM depending only on χ\chiχ and γ\gammaγ proves the theorem.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4.6 (p. 131): at most r∗r^*r∗ consecutive reflections, and no expansion immediately after a reflection.
  2. Corollary 4.1 (p. 131): a contraction occurs at some iteration in [K,K+r∗][K, K+r^*][K,K+r∗].
  3. Lemma 4.7 (p. 132): after a contraction, no block of consecutive expansions is longer than j∗j^*j∗.
  4. Lemma 4.8 (p. 133): there is φ<1\varphi<1φ<1 depending only on χ,γ\chi,\gammaχ,γ such that the simplex after a contraction and the simplex after the next contraction satisfy diam⁡(Δ′)≤φdiam⁡(Δ)\operatorname{diam}(\Delta')\le\varphi\operatorname{diam}(\Delta)diam(Δ′)≤φdiam(Δ).

Significance

Theorem 4.2 is a rate statement for a method whose global behaviour is mostly unexplained. It shows that in dimension 1 with ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1 the method behaves like a bracketing line search: once the minimizer is bracketed, the interval shrinks geometrically, and the number of iterations per halving is bounded independently of fff and of the starting interval. With the standard coefficients χ=2\chi=2χ=2, γ=12\gamma=\tfrac12γ=21​ the value of MMM constructed in the paper's proof is M=4M=4M=4. The intermediate lemmas describe which move sequences the method can produce after the minimizer is bracketed.

The paper's results are proved; to our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. This mission produces a formal model of the one-dimensional method with the paper's tie-breaking rules, and formal statements of the rate theorem and its supporting lemmas. Proving them is the remaining work, including the one-dimensional bracketing and proximity results of the paper's §4.2, which the proofs use and which are posed as a separate mission of this series.

Difficulty

The rate does not follow from a per-iteration bound: a reflection keeps the diameter and an expansion multiplies it by χ>1\chi>1χ>1, so the diameter can grow for several consecutive iterations. A contraction-only argument fails for this reason. The theorem needs a bound on how long the method can avoid contracting and on how much expansion can happen between two contractions. Both bounds come from strict convexity applied along the line through the current interval, together with the location of the minimizer relative to the vertices (the proximity property of §4.2), and they must hold uniformly in fff. Making the constants uniform, so that MMM and φ\varphiφ depend only on χ\chiχ and γ\gammaγ, is the delicate part. Before KKK no such control holds, which is why the theorem only speaks about k≥Kk\ge Kk≥K.

Formalization scope

The state is an ordered pair p : ℝ × ℝ with p.1 the best vertex x1x_1x1​ and p.2 the worst vertex x2x_2x2​; run f 1 χ γ σ p0 k is Δk\Delta_kΔk​, and moveAt f χ γ σ p0 k is the type of iteration kkk. The coefficient ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1 is substituted into the algorithm. The ordering rule is the paper's insertion rule (new point first iff f(v)<f(x1)f(v)<f(x_1)f(v)<f(x1​), ties to the higher index); the printed formula j=max⁡{ℓ∣f(v)<f(xℓ+1)}j=\max\{\ell \mid f(v)<f(x_{\ell+1})\}j=max{ℓ∣f(v)<f(xℓ+1​)} contradicts the paper's own example on p. 118 and is read as its words describe. The expansion step accepts the better of xrx_rxr​ and xex_exe​, the outside contraction is accepted on fc≤frf_c\le f_rfc​≤fr​, the inside contraction on fcc<f2f_{cc}<f_2fcc​<f2​.

Standing assumptions carried by every statement: (2.1) with ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1; fff strictly convex on R\mathbb RR (StrictConvexOn ℝ Set.univ f); bounded level sets ({x:f(x)≤μ}\{x : f(x)\le\mu\}{x:f(x)≤μ} bounded for every μ\muμ); and Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​ nondegenerate and ordered. Corollary 4.1 prints only ρ=1\rho=1ρ=1; the remaining conditions of (2.1) are the section's standing assumptions. r∗r^*r∗ is the natural-number ceiling ⌈χ−1⌉\lceil\chi-1\rceil⌈χ−1⌉; j∗j^*j∗ is computed by a bounded search over 0≤j≤⌈NNM⌉0\le j\le\lceil N_{NM}\rceil0≤j≤⌈NNM​⌉, which loses nothing for χ>1\chi>1χ>1. The uniformity of MMM in Theorem 4.2 and of φ\varphiφ in Lemma 4.8 is encoded by quantifier order: they are chosen after χ,γ\chi,\gammaχ,γ and before σ\sigmaσ, fff, Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​.

The goal's conclusion includes the existence of the bracketing index KKK (the paper's Lemma 4.2), so the halving claim cannot hold vacuously for a run that is never bracketed; a statement that lets MMM depend on fff or Δ0\Delta_0Δ0​ is a different and much weaker theorem and is ruled out by the quantifier order.

A complete development needs: the one-dimensional facts about strictly convex functions (the paper's Lemma 4.1), the absence of shrink steps under strict convexity (Lemma 3.5 for n=1n=1n=1), the bracketing and proximity lemmas of §4.2, and the move-sequence and diameter-product arguments of §4.3. The model of the one-dimensional method and the convexity lemmas are reusable for the series' first mission (convergence of both endpoints). Proofs of individual milestones, and of the §4.2 lemmas as local results, are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. C. Lagarias, J. A. Reeds, M. H. Wright, P. E. Wright, Convergence properties of the Nelder–Mead simplex method in low dimensions, SIAM J. Optim. 9(1):112–147, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623496303470
  • J. A. Nelder, R. Mead, A simplex method for function minimization, Computer Journal 7(4):308–313, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1093/comjnl/7.4.308
  • K. I. M. McKinnon, Convergence of the Nelder–Mead simplex method to a nonstationary point, SIAM J. Optim. 9(1):148–158, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623496303482
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CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: marwahaha

3SUM in O(n^1.999112) Time on a Word RAMResearch Paper

Improve deterministic integer 3SUM to O(n1.999112)O(n^{1.999112})O(n1.999112) time in the foundation mission’s word-RAM model.

The existing Corollary 26 routine admits the tighter bound O(wD0.436+n2/D0.064)O(wD^{0.436}+n^2/D^{0.064})O(wD0.436+n2/D0.064). Keep D=⌊n1/18⌋D=\lfloor n^{1/18}\rfloorD=⌊n1/18⌋ and change the grouping parameter to g=⌈D0.032⌉g=\lceil D^{0.032}\rceilg=⌈D0.032⌉, implemented using the integer root of D4D^4D4 of order 125125125. Balancing the instance costs and scans gives an Exact Triangle saving of 2/11252/11252/1125, and the verified 3SUM reduction gives n2249/1125+o(1)n^{2249/1125+o(1)}n2249/1125+o(1) time.

The supporting theorem establishes every rational exponent r>2249/1125=1.999111…r>2249/1125=1.999111\ldotsr>2249/1125=1.999111…, including 1.9991121.9991121.999112. This changes the algorithm’s grouping parameter and improves the earlier cutoff 1.9991251.9991251.999125. All other model definitions and the shared reduction lemmas are reused.

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CombinatoricsTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: marwahaha

3SUM in O(n^1.99913) Time on a Word RAMResearch Paper

Prove deterministic O(n1.99913)O(n^{1.99913})O(n1.99913) time for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using the same word-RAM model and definitions as the foundation mission.

The existing uniform Exact Triangle bound has saving δ=0.00175\delta=0.00175δ=0.00175. The verified 3SUM reduction yields n2−δ/2+o(1)=n1.999125+o(1)n^{2-\delta/2+o(1)}=n^{1.999125+o(1)}n2−δ/2+o(1)=n1.999125+o(1) time, so every fixed rational exponent above 1.9991251.9991251.999125 is attainable, including 1.999131.999131.99913. This mission sharpens the bound extracted from the existing algorithm.

The supporting theorem covers all rational r>1.999125r>1.999125r>1.999125; it does not assert an exact O(n1.999125)O(n^{1.999125})O(n1.999125) bound. The proof reuses the shared, proved APSP and 3SUM lemmas from Anthropic’s formalization.

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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management 3: Under Box Uncertainty, Worst-Case CVaR Minimization (16)–(20) Is Equivalent to the Linear Program (24)–(30)Research Paper

Motivation

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is the expected loss in the worst (1−β)(1-\beta)(1−β) fraction of outcomes. Rockafellar and Uryasev showed that, for a finite set of scenarios, minimizing CVaR is a linear program whenever the loss is linear in the decision (Rockafellar–Uryasev 2000; 2002). That linear program needs the scenario probabilities, and in practice they are estimates. Zhu and Fukushima (2009) replace the single distribution by a set of distributions and minimize the worst-case CVaR over that set. The resulting problem, (16)–(20) below, contains a maximization over distributions inside a constraint, which no standard solver accepts directly.

This mission treats the first of the two cases the paper works out explicitly: the scenario probabilities are only known to lie in a box around a nominal distribution. Proposition 2 of the paper shows that the worst-case problem is then equivalent to a single problem, (24)–(30), with finitely many explicit constraints. The tool is linear programming duality applied to the inner maximization.

Setting

A decision x∈Rnx \in \mathbb R^nx∈Rn is chosen from a set X⊆Rn\mathcal X \subseteq \mathbb R^nX⊆Rn. The random vector takes one of SSS values y[1],…,y[S]∈Rmy_{[1]}, \dots, y_{[S]} \in \mathbb R^my[1]​,…,y[S]​∈Rm, and f(x,y)f(x, y)f(x,y) is the loss of decision xxx in outcome yyy. A distribution over the scenarios is a vector π∈RS\pi \in \mathbb R^Sπ∈RS. Vectors are compared componentwise, eee is the all-ones vector, and β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1) is the confidence level.

The box uncertainty set (21) is built from a nominal distribution π0\pi^0π0 and bounds η‾,η‾∈RS\underline\eta, \overline\eta \in \mathbb R^Sη​,η​∈RS:

PπB={π:π=π0+η, e⊤η=0, η‾≤η≤η‾}.\mathcal P_\pi^B = \{\pi : \pi = \pi^0 + \eta,\ e^\top\eta = 0,\ \underline\eta \le \eta \le \overline\eta\}.PπB​={π:π=π0+η, e⊤η=0, η​≤η≤η​}.

Problem (16)–(20) minimizes θ\thetaθ over (x,u,α,θ)∈Rn×RS×R×R(x, u, \alpha, \theta) \in \mathbb R^n \times \mathbb R^S \times \mathbb R \times \mathbb R(x,u,α,θ)∈Rn×RS×R×R subject to

x∈X,max⁡π∈PπBα+11−βπ⊤u≤θ,uk≥f(x,y[k])−α,uk≥0 (k=1,…,S).x \in \mathcal X,\qquad \max_{\pi \in \mathcal P_\pi^B} \alpha + \tfrac{1}{1-\beta}\pi^\top u \le \theta,\qquad u_k \ge f(x, y_{[k]}) - \alpha,\quad u_k \ge 0\ (k = 1, \dots, S).x∈X,π∈PπB​max​α+1−β1​π⊤u≤θ,uk​≥f(x,y[k]​)−α,uk​≥0 (k=1,…,S).

By Theorem 2 of the paper its optimal value is the minimum of the worst-case CVaR over X\mathcal XX.

For fixed uuu, the worst case over the box involves the linear program (22) and its dual (23):

γ∗(u)=max⁡η{u⊤η:e⊤η=0, η‾≤η≤η‾},min⁡(z,ξ,ω){η‾⊤ξ+η‾⊤ω:ez+ξ+ω=u, ξ≥0, ω≤0}.\gamma^*(u) = \max_{\eta}\{u^\top\eta : e^\top\eta = 0,\ \underline\eta \le \eta \le \overline\eta\},\qquad \min_{(z,\xi,\omega)}\{\overline\eta^\top\xi + \underline\eta^\top\omega : e z + \xi + \omega = u,\ \xi \ge 0,\ \omega \le 0\}.γ∗(u)=ηmax​{u⊤η:e⊤η=0, η​≤η≤η​},(z,ξ,ω)min​{η​⊤ξ+η​⊤ω:ez+ξ+ω=u, ξ≥0, ω≤0}.

Problem (24)–(30) minimizes θ\thetaθ over (x,u,z,ξ,ω,α,θ)(x, u, z, \xi, \omega, \alpha, \theta)(x,u,z,ξ,ω,α,θ) subject to x∈Xx \in \mathcal Xx∈X,

α+11−β(π0)⊤u+11−β(η‾⊤ξ+η‾⊤ω)≤θ,ez+ξ+ω=u,ξ≥0,ω≤0,\alpha + \tfrac{1}{1-\beta}(\pi^0)^\top u + \tfrac{1}{1-\beta}(\overline\eta^\top\xi + \underline\eta^\top\omega) \le \theta,\qquad e z + \xi + \omega = u,\quad \xi \ge 0,\quad \omega \le 0,α+1−β1​(π0)⊤u+1−β1​(η​⊤ξ+η​⊤ω)≤θ,ez+ξ+ω=u,ξ≥0,ω≤0,

and the same constraints uk≥f(x,y[k])−αu_k \ge f(x, y_{[k]}) - \alphauk​≥f(x,y[k]​)−α, uk≥0u_k \ge 0uk​≥0. A point solves a problem when it is feasible and no feasible point has a smaller θ\thetaθ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 1159)

  1. If (x∗,u∗,z∗,ξ∗,ω∗,α∗,θ∗)(x^*, u^*, z^*, \xi^*, \omega^*, \alpha^*, \theta^*)(x∗,u∗,z∗,ξ∗,ω∗,α∗,θ∗) solves (24)–(30), then (x∗,u∗,α∗,θ∗)(x^*, u^*, \alpha^*, \theta^*)(x∗,u∗,α∗,θ∗) solves (16)–(20).
  2. If (x~∗,u~∗,α~∗,θ~∗)(\tilde x^*, \tilde u^*, \tilde\alpha^*, \tilde\theta^*)(x~∗,u~∗,α~∗,θ~∗) solves (16)–(20) and (z~∗,ξ~∗,ω~∗)(\tilde z^*, \tilde\xi^*, \tilde\omega^*)(z~∗,ξ~​∗,ω~∗) is an optimal solution of (23) with u=u~∗u = \tilde u^*u=u~∗, then (x~∗,u~∗,z~∗,ξ~∗,ω~∗,α~∗,θ~∗)(\tilde x^*, \tilde u^*, \tilde z^*, \tilde\xi^*, \tilde\omega^*, \tilde\alpha^*, \tilde\theta^*)(x~∗,u~∗,z~∗,ξ~​∗,ω~∗,α~∗,θ~∗) solves (24)–(30).
  3. In the situation of 2, an optimal solution of (23) exists.

Milestones, in the order the paper's argument uses them

  • The decomposition before (22) (p. 1159): if (22) is feasible, then
max⁡π∈PπBα+11−βπ⊤u=α+11−β(π0)⊤u+γ∗(u)1−β,\max_{\pi \in \mathcal P_\pi^B} \alpha + \tfrac{1}{1-\beta}\pi^\top u = \alpha + \tfrac{1}{1-\beta}(\pi^0)^\top u + \tfrac{\gamma^*(u)}{1-\beta},π∈PπB​max​α+1−β1​π⊤u=α+1−β1​(π0)⊤u+1−βγ∗(u)​,

and both maxima are attained.

  • Weak duality for (22)–(23): u⊤η≤η‾⊤ξ+η‾⊤ωu^\top\eta \le \overline\eta^\top\xi + \underline\eta^\top\omegau⊤η≤η​⊤ξ+η​⊤ω for feasible points of the two programs, hence γ∗(u)≤η‾⊤ξ+η‾⊤ω\gamma^*(u) \le \overline\eta^\top\xi + \underline\eta^\top\omegaγ∗(u)≤η​⊤ξ+η​⊤ω.
  • Strong duality for (22)–(23): if (22) is feasible, (23) has an optimal solution, with value γ∗(u)\gamma^*(u)γ∗(u).
  • Feasibility transfer from (24)–(30) to (16)–(20), by projection.
  • Feasibility transfer from (16)–(20) to (24)–(30), by appending an optimal solution of (23).

Significance

Proposition 2 makes worst-case CVaR minimization under box uncertainty computable with standard software. When fff is linear in xxx and X\mathcal XX is a polyhedron, (24)–(30) is a linear program whose size grows only linearly in SSS, and when fff is convex in xxx and X\mathcal XX is convex it is a convex program. The robust portfolio models of §3 of the paper rest on this reformulation. Setting η‾=η‾=0\underline\eta = \overline\eta = 0η​=η​=0 recovers the Rockafellar–Uryasev linear program (Remark 2 of the paper).

Proposition 2 is proved in the paper. As far as is known, neither it nor the duality pair (22)–(23) has a machine-checked proof; this mission would supply one. The development also exercises LP duality for a specific bounded-variable program, one with a single equality constraint, in a form that can be reused by other robust-optimization reformulations over boxes.

Difficulty

The obvious argument says "replace the max by its dual". Two steps need care. First, the inner maximum is over a polytope that may be empty, and the substitution of (18) by (26)–(28) is correct only when the box is nonempty; it must be shown that an optimal solution of either problem forces the box to be nonempty. Second, the equivalence is a statement about optimal solutions, not feasible ones, so both directions need the comparison of objective values over all feasible points of the other problem. The printed proof assumes in each direction that some optimal solution with a smaller objective exists, where only a feasible one is available; the argument must be run with feasible points. Strong duality for (22)–(23) is a genuine LP duality theorem: Mathlib does not provide it in this form, and it must be derived from a general duality or Farkas-type result.

Formalization scope

Vectors are Fin S → ℝ and Fin n → ℝ, compared pointwise, with zero-based indices. Dot products are ⬝ᵥ, and e⊤ηe^\top\etae⊤η is ∑ k, η k. Points of the three problems are structures (Var16, Var24, Dual23) with fields named as in the paper. The factor 11−β\frac{1}{1-\beta}1−β1​ is (1 - β)⁻¹, and every theorem assumes 0<β<10 < \beta < 10<β<1.

Committed readings:

  • Constraint (18), printed as "max⁡π∈PπB…≤θ\max_{\pi \in \mathcal P_\pi^B} \ldots \le \thetamaxπ∈PπB​​…≤θ", is stated as "for all π∈PπB\pi \in \mathcal P_\pi^Bπ∈PπB​". The two agree whenever the maximum exists, and the ∀\forall∀ form stays correct on an empty box. A real supremum there would silently become the constraint 0≤θ0 \le \theta0≤θ.
  • γ∗(u)\gamma^*(u)γ∗(u) is a real supremum, and every statement using it assumes (22) feasible.
  • "Solves" means feasible and minimal in θ\thetaθ (IsMinOn). Feasibility alone would make the proposition trivial and is ruled out.
  • Clause 3 of the goal states the existence of an optimal solution of (23). Without it, clause 2 could hold vacuously.
  • No hypothesis is placed on fff, X\mathcal XX, π0\pi^0π0, η‾\underline\etaη​ or η‾\overline\etaη​. The paper intends π0+η‾≥0\pi^0 + \underline\eta \ge 0π0+η​≥0 and π0\pi^0π0 a distribution, but Proposition 2 holds without these assumptions.

Needed infrastructure: LP strong duality for the pair (22)–(23), derivable from Mathlib's Farkas lemma or from LP duality theorems already on the platform; finite sums and dot products. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal from the milestones, and of a general bounded-variable LP duality lemma are all welcome.

Not in scope: the ellipsoidal case (31)–(40), Remark 2, and the portfolio instances of §3.

Selected references

  • S. Zhu, M. Fukushima, Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management, Operations Research 57(5):1155–1168, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0684
  • R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev, Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk, Journal of Risk 2:21–41, 2000. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • R. T. Rockafellar, S. Uryasev, Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions, Journal of Banking & Finance 26:1443–1471, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00271-6
  • A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust Optimization — Methodology and Applications, Mathematical Programming Ser. B 92:453–480, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101070100286
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Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems 1: Under Any Policy in Z(s) the State Enters X(s) and Never Leaves, So Every State Outside X(s) Is TransientResearch Paper

Why the lost-sales state space matters

The lost-sales inventory system with a positive lead time is one of the basic models of inventory theory. Demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backlogged, and orders arrive a fixed number LLL of periods after they are placed. Unlike the backlog system, where the inventory position is a sufficient one-dimensional state and a base-stock policy is optimal, the lost-sales system needs the whole pipeline of outstanding orders as its state, and its optimal policy has no simple form. Computing optimal policies by dynamic programming therefore runs into the size of an LLL-dimensional state space.

Paul Zipkin's paper Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems (Operations Research 56(5), 2008, doi:10.1287/opre.1070.0471) revisits this model, compares classical and new heuristics against optimal policies, and prepares the computation with a state-reduction result. Morton (1969, SIAM Review 11, Equation (83)) showed that under an optimal policy the state remains in a bounded set; Zipkin's §4 extends the argument to every policy in a class Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) that contains the usual heuristics. This mission formalizes that section: the reduced state space X(s)X(s)X(s), the policy class Z(s)Z(s)Z(s), and Claim 1, which says that states outside X(s)X(s)X(s) are transient.

Setting

Fix the lead time L≥1L\ge 1L≥1. The state is the LLL-vector x=(x0,…,xL−1)x=(x_0,\dots,x_{L-1})x=(x0​,…,xL−1​): x0x_0x0​ is the stock on hand after this period's delivery, and xlx_lxl​ (1≤l≤L−11\le l\le L-11≤l≤L−1) is the order that arrives lll periods later, so xL−1x_{L-1}xL−1​ is the most recent order. Given the state xxx, an order z≥0z\ge 0z≥0 and a demand d≥0d\ge 0d≥0, the next state is

x+=([x0−d]++x1, x2, …, xL−1, z),[a]+=max⁡(a,0).x_+ = \bigl([x_0-d]^+ + x_1,\ x_2,\ \dots,\ x_{L-1},\ z\bigr),\qquad [a]^+=\max(a,0).x+​=([x0​−d]++x1​, x2​, …, xL−1​, z),[a]+=max(a,0).

Demands in successive periods are independent with a common law DDD on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).

The pipeline partial sums are vl=∑m=lL−1xmv_l=\sum_{m=l}^{L-1}x_mvl​=∑m=lL−1​xm​ for l=0,…,L−1l=0,\dots,L-1l=0,…,L−1 and vL=0v_L=0vL​=0; v0v_0v0​ is the inventory position and vL−1=xL−1v_{L-1}=x_{L-1}vL−1​=xL−1​ the most recent order. A level vector is s=(s0,…,sL)s=(s_0,\dots,s_L)s=(s0​,…,sL​) with s0≥s1≥⋯≥sL≥0s_0\ge s_1\ge\dots\ge s_L\ge 0s0​≥s1​≥⋯≥sL​≥0. For a level vector sss,

X(s)={x≥0: vl≤sl, l=0,…,L−1},X(s)=\{x\ge 0:\ v_l\le s_l,\ l=0,\dots,L-1\},X(s)={x≥0: vl​≤sl​, l=0,…,L−1},

and Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) is the set of stationary policies zzz (an order z(x)≥0z(x)\ge 0z(x)≥0 in each state x≥0x\ge 0x≥0) with z(x)=0z(x)=0z(x)=0 for x∉X(s)x\notin X(s)x∈/X(s) and vl+z(x)≤slv_l+z(x)\le s_lvl​+z(x)≤sl​ for l=0,…,Ll=0,\dots,Ll=0,…,L and x∈X(s)x\in X(s)x∈X(s). The vector base-stock policy with parameter sss is

zs(x)=[min⁡{sl−vl, l=0,…,L}]+,z_s(x)=\bigl[\min\{s_l-v_l,\ l=0,\dots,L\}\bigr]^+,zs​(x)=[min{sl​−vl​, l=0,…,L}]+,

equation (5) of the paper with a general sss in place of Morton's sˉ\bar ssˉ. Under a stationary policy zzz, from an initial state xxx and along a demand path (dt)(d_t)(dt​), the state process is x0=xx_0=xx0​=x, xt+1=(xt)+x_{t+1}=(x_t)_+xt+1​=(xt​)+​ with order z(xt)z(x_t)z(xt​) and demand dtd_tdt​. In Lean these are next, v, IsLevelVector, Xs, Zs, vectorBaseStock and traj in the namespace LostSalesOldNew.StateReduction.

Formalization targets

Goal: Claim 1 (p. 1259)

For a level vector sss, a policy z∈Z(s)z\in Z(s)z∈Z(s), i.i.d. demands with law DDD on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) and P(d>0)>0P(d>0)>0P(d>0)>0, and any initial state x≥0x\ge 0x≥0, almost surely

∃ T ∀ t≥T:xt∈X(s).\exists\,T\ \forall\,t\ge T:\quad x_t\in X(s).∃T ∀t≥T:xt​∈X(s).

The paper's word is "transient"; the statement above says that every state outside X(s)X(s)X(s), indeed the whole complement, is visited only finitely often.

Milestones

  1. (5) and §4: for every level vector sss, zs∈Z(s)z_s\in Z(s)zs​∈Z(s).
  2. Invariance (proof of Claim 1): x∈X(s)x\in X(s)x∈X(s), z∈Z(s)z\in Z(s)z∈Z(s), d≥0d\ge 0d≥0 imply x+∈X(s)x_+\in X(s)x+​∈X(s).
  3. Entrance (proof of Claim 1): along a demand path with dt≥0d_t\ge 0dt​≥0 and ∑t<ndt→∞\sum_{t<n}d_t\to\infty∑t<n​dt​→∞, the process started at any x≥0x\ge 0x≥0 visits X(s)X(s)X(s).

A further item records the paper's remark that X(s)X(s)X(s) and Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) are increasing in sss.

Significance

Claim 1 lets the dynamic program be solved on the compact set X(sˉ)X(\bar s)X(sˉ) with policies restricted to Z(sˉ)Z(\bar s)Z(sˉ), which is what makes the paper's exact computations (lead times up to four, §6) feasible. Since Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) contains the vector base-stock policies and, for sss large enough, any policy that stops ordering in large states, the claim also says that every plausible policy eventually confines the state to a bounded set.

The result has a short proof in the paper and no machine-checked version. Formalizing it produces a reusable encoding of the lost-sales pipeline with general stationary policies, and makes explicit two points the paper leaves implicit: the probabilistic reading of "transient", and the demand condition under which the process must leave the complement of X(s)X(s)X(s). Related platform material treats the backlog analogue (VeinottBaseStock.base_stock_level_absorbing, a base-stock level set is absorbing) and lost-sales dynamics under other conventions (CappedBaseStock_Model, from an empty initial state under capped base-stock policies with average cost); those formulations use another state convention and cost criterion and are not imported here.

Difficulty

The invariance step is algebra on partial sums. The content of the claim is the entrance step: outside X(s)X(s)X(s) the policy orders nothing, so the process can only reach X(s)X(s)X(s) through demand draining the stock and the pipeline. That requires the cumulative demand to diverge, which fails pathwise (demand identically zero leaves a state with x0>s0x_0>s_0x0​>s0​ fixed forever) and holds only almost surely, from independence and P(d>0)>0P(d>0)>0P(d>0)>0. The naive reading of "transient" as invariance alone, or as the pathwise statement with divergent demand assumed, misses this step.

Formalization scope

  • States are Fin L → ℝ with L≥1L\ge 1L≥1 in the goal; theorems quantify over nonnegative states. The vector (x,z)(x,z)(x,z) is Fin.snoc x z; vvv takes a natural-number index and vanishes at l≥Ll\ge Ll≥L, so vL=0v_L=0vL​=0.
  • Level vectors are Fin (L+1) → ℝ, antitone with nonnegative last entry. X(s)X(s)X(s) constrains v0,…,vL−1v_0,\dots,v_{L-1}v0​,…,vL−1​; Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) constrains vl+z(x)v_l+z(x)vl​+z(x) for l=0,…,Ll=0,\dots,Ll=0,…,L.
  • Policies are deterministic stationary functions of the state, with no measurability required. The zero condition and the sign condition of Z(s)Z(s)Z(s) range over states x≥0x\ge 0x≥0 (the paper's state space); over all of RL\mathbb R^LRL the vector base-stock policy would not be in Z(s)Z(s)Z(s).
  • Demand is a probability measure DDD on R\mathbb RR with D((−∞,0))=0D((-\infty,0))=0D((−∞,0))=0; the demand sequence is the coordinate process under Measure.infinitePi (fun _ : ℕ => D). The hypothesis D((0,∞))>0D((0,\infty))>0D((0,∞))>0 is added to the paper's assumptions; without it the claim is false.
  • "Transient" is read as: almost surely the state lies in X(s)X(s)X(s) from some period on.
  • Ruled out: the goal is neither the invariance statement alone, which says nothing about states outside X(s)X(s)X(s), nor the pathwise entrance statement with divergent cumulative demand assumed, which drops the probabilistic content.

A complete development needs the partial-sum algebra of the pipeline, the second Borel–Cantelli lemma or the strong law for i.i.d. nonnegative sequences under Measure.infinitePi, and induction along traj. The pipeline encoding is shared with the second mission of this series (lead-time monotonicity). Proofs of any milestone and of the goal are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems, Operations Research 56(5):1256–1263, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0471
  • T. Morton, Bounds on the Solution of the Lagged Optimal Inventory Equation with No Demand Backlogging and Proportional Costs, SIAM Review 11:572–576, 1969 (as cited in Zipkin 2008).
  • T. Morton, The Near-Myopic Nature of the Lagged-Proportional-Cost Inventory Problem with Lost Sales, Operations Research 19(7):1708–1716, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.19.7.1708
  • R. Levi, G. Janakiraman, M. Nagarajan, Provably Near-Optimal Balancing Policies for Stochastic Inventory Control Models with Lost Sales, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2008 (forthcoming at the time of Zipkin 2008).
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On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models 1: In the Transformed State v = J⁻¹x, the Optimal Cost Functions f̄_t(v) and ḡ_t(v, ζ) Are L♮-ConvexResearch Paper

Motivation

The lost-sales inventory system is the inventory model in which demand that cannot be met from stock is lost, not backlogged. It is the natural model for retail and for any setting where a customer who finds the shelf empty buys elsewhere. With a positive order lead time it is also one of the classical hard problems of inventory theory. In the backorder model the state collapses to a single number, the inventory position, and a base-stock policy is optimal. Under lost sales the whole pipeline of outstanding orders matters, the state is an LLL-dimensional vector, and no simple policy is optimal.

Its structure has a long history:

  • Karlin and Scarf (1958) formulated the model and showed, for lead time one and continuous demand, that the optimal order decreases in on-hand inventory with slope bounded by one.
  • Morton (1969) extended these qualitative properties to general lead times, again by differentiating the optimal cost function, which required smooth demand distributions.
  • Zipkin (2008), the paper formalized here, recovered and unified both results with a change of state variables and a single structural property, L♮-convexity, from discrete convex analysis (Murota 2003). The argument needs no smoothness and works for discrete as well as continuous demand.

Setting

Time is discrete. In each period the order due arrives, a new order z≥0z\ge0z≥0 is placed, demand d≥0d\ge0d≥0 occurs, and a holding or penalty cost is charged. The lead time L≥1L\ge1L≥1 is an integer. The original state x=(x0,…,xL−1)x=(x_0,\dots,x_{L-1})x=(x0​,…,xL−1​) records on-hand inventory x0x_0x0​ followed by the orders in transit. Demands are independent with a common law μ\muμ. The costs are linear and stationary: unit procurement cost ccc, unit holding cost h^\hat hh^, unit lost-sales penalty ppp, and discount factor γ\gammaγ.

The transformed state is the vector of partial sums vl=∑k=lL−1xkv_l=\sum_{k=l}^{L-1}x_kvl​=∑k=lL−1​xk​, 0≤l<L0\le l<L0≤l<L, with the convention vL=0v_L=0vL​=0. It ranges over the cone

V={v∈RL:v0≥v1≥⋯≥vL−1≥0}.V=\{v\in\mathbb R^L : v_0\ge v_1\ge\dots\ge v_{L-1}\ge 0\}.V={v∈RL:v0​≥v1​≥⋯≥vL−1​≥0}.

The transformed order is ζ=−z≤0\zeta=-z\le0ζ=−z≤0. With eee the all-ones vector, the state moves to

v+=([v0−v1−d]++v1, v2, …, vL−1, 0)−ζe.v_+=\big([v_0-v_1-d]^+ + v_1,\ v_2,\ \dots,\ v_{L-1},\ 0\big)-\zeta e .v+​=([v0​−v1​−d]++v1​, v2​, …, vL−1​, 0)−ζe.

The one-period cost is q^(u)=h^u++pu−\hat q(u)=\hat hu^+ + pu^-q^​(u)=h^u++pu− on u=y−du=y-du=y−d, where y=v0−v1y=v_0-v_1y=v0​−v1​ is the on-hand stock, and q^0(y)=E[q^(y−d)]\hat q^0(y)=E[\hat q(y-d)]q^​0(y)=E[q^​(y−d)]. With kkk periods to go, the optimal cost functions are

fˉ0≡0,gˉk(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^0(v0−v1)+γE[fˉk(v+)],fˉk+1(v)=inf⁡ζ≤0gˉk(v,ζ).\bar f_0\equiv0,\qquad \bar g_k(v,\zeta)=-\gamma^Lc\zeta+\hat q^0(v_0-v_1)+\gamma E\big[\bar f_k(v_+)\big],\qquad \bar f_{k+1}(v)=\inf_{\zeta\le0}\bar g_k(v,\zeta).fˉ​0​≡0,gˉ​k​(v,ζ)=−γLcζ+q^​0(v0​−v1​)+γE[fˉ​k​(v+​)],fˉ​k+1​(v)=ζ≤0inf​gˉ​k​(v,ζ).

A function φ\varphiφ is submodular on a set S⊆RnS\subseteq\mathbb R^nS⊆Rn if φ(x∨y)+φ(x∧y)≤φ(x)+φ(y)\varphi(x\vee y)+\varphi(x\wedge y)\le\varphi(x)+\varphi(y)φ(x∨y)+φ(x∧y)≤φ(x)+φ(y) for all x,y∈Sx,y\in Sx,y∈S, with ∨,∧\vee,\wedge∨,∧ the componentwise maximum and minimum. A function f:V→Rf:V\to\mathbb Rf:V→R is L♮-convex if ψ(v,ζ)=f(v−ζe)\psi(v,\zeta)=f(v-\zeta e)ψ(v,ζ)=f(v−ζe) is submodular on V×ℜ−V\times\Re^-V×ℜ−. A function g(v,ζ)g(v,\zeta)g(v,ζ) on V×ℜ−V\times\Re^-V×ℜ− is L♮-convex if g((v,ζ)−ξ(e,1))g\big((v,\zeta)-\xi(e,1)\big)g((v,ζ)−ξ(e,1)) is submodular in (v,ζ,ξ)(v,\zeta,\xi)(v,ζ,ξ) over v∈Vv\in Vv∈V, ζ≤ξ≤0\zeta\le\xi\le0ζ≤ξ≤0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 (p. 939)

For every number of periods to go kkk,

fˉk is L♮-convex on Vandgˉk is L♮-convex on V×ℜ−.\bar f_k \text{ is L♮-convex on } V \quad\text{and}\quad \bar g_k \text{ is L♮-convex on } V\times\Re^- .fˉ​k​ is L♮-convex on Vandgˉ​k​ is L♮-convex on V×ℜ−.

The statement fixes no constants. It holds for every lead time, every demand law in the class below, and every cost vector.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 938): if f(v)f(v)f(v) is L♮-convex, so is ψ(v,ζ)=f(v−ζe)\psi(v,\zeta)=f(v-\zeta e)ψ(v,ζ)=f(v−ζe).
  2. Lemma 2 (p. 939): if g(v,ζ)g(v,\zeta)g(v,ζ) is L♮-convex, so is f(v)=min⁡ζ≤0g(v,ζ)f(v)=\min_{\zeta\le0}g(v,\zeta)f(v)=minζ≤0​g(v,ζ).
  3. Optimal filling (proof of Theorem 4): in the end-of-period program (3), filling as much demand as possible is optimal (a=min⁡{d,v0−v1}a=\min\{d,v_0-v_1\}a=min{d,v0​−v1​}). Consequently κˉt(v,ζ∣d)=q^(v0−v1−d)+γfˉt+1(v+)\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)=\hat q(v_0-v_1-d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}(v_+)κˉt​(v,ζ∣d)=q^​(v0​−v1​−d)+γfˉ​t+1​(v+​).
  4. ψt\psi_tψt​ is L♮-convex: the objective ψt(v+,v,ζ)=h^(v+−v1)+p(v+−v0+d)+γfˉt+1[(v+,v2,…,vL−1,0)−ζe]\psi_t(v_+,v,\zeta)=\hat h(v_+-v_1)+p(v_+-v_0+d)+\gamma\bar f_{t+1}[(v_+,v_2,\dots,v_{L-1},0)-\zeta e]ψt​(v+​,v,ζ)=h^(v+​−v1​)+p(v+​−v0​+d)+γfˉ​t+1​[(v+​,v2​,…,vL−1​,0)−ζe] of program (4) is L♮-convex on its constraint set.
  5. κˉt\bar\kappa_tκˉt​ is L♮-convex: the end-of-period cost κˉt(v,ζ∣d)\bar\kappa_t(v,\zeta\mid d)κˉt​(v,ζ∣d) is L♮-convex in (v,ζ)(v,\zeta)(v,ζ) for each ddd.
  6. gˉt\bar g_tgˉ​t​ is L♮-convex: if fˉt+1\bar f_{t+1}fˉ​t+1​ is L♮-convex, so is gˉt=−γLcζ+Ed[κˉt]\bar g_t=-\gamma^Lc\zeta+E_d[\bar\kappa_t]gˉ​t​=−γLcζ+Ed​[κˉt​], by (5).

Significance

The result. L♮-convexity of fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ implies that fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ is submodular and convex in the transformed state. L♮-convexity of gˉt\bar g_tgˉ​t​ yields, through Lemma 3 and Corollary 5 of the paper, that the optimal order zˉt(v)\bar z_t(v)zˉt​(v) is nonincreasing in vvv and changes by at most ω\omegaω when every component of vvv increases by ω\omegaω. These are exactly the Karlin–Scarf and Morton sensitivity results, obtained without derivatives. The same property underlies the paper's later results: the bounds on the optimal policy (§4), the monotonicity of cost in demand variability (§5), and the extensions to capacity limits, correlated demand and stochastic lead times (§6).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematically. To our knowledge no machine-checked proof of L♮-convexity of an inventory value function exists. The mission produces three things:

  • a formal L♮-convexity theory on real cones (the shift characterization, its preservation under partial minimization, and its preservation under expectation);
  • a checked version of the induction behind Theorem 4;
  • a verified model of the lost-sales recursion in the transformed state, which missions on Corollary 5 and the later sections can import.

Difficulty

The obvious argument works with ordinary convexity and submodularity in the original state xxx. It stalls: the lost-sales transition [x0−d]+[x_0-d]^+[x0​−d]+ is not linear, and the order enters only the last pipeline component, so the comparative statics Karlin and Scarf and Morton obtained by differentiation do not follow from convexity in xxx. The paper's structure appears only in the partial sums vvv. Submodularity alone, moreover, is not preserved by the step that minimizes over the order. The shift structure of L♮-convexity is what survives the minimization over ζ\zetaζ (Lemma 2). Proving plain submodularity of fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ on VVV therefore does not close the induction.

A second difficulty is the end-of-period program. Writing the next state as the minimum of a program over a constraint set that is a sublattice requires checking the order-theoretic structure of the set together with the sign pattern of every term. The equality between the program's value and the recursion's one-period cost (milestone 3) is a property of the model's own value function, not of an arbitrary L♮-convex continuation.

A third difficulty is measure-theoretic. Preservation under expectation needs integrability and measurability of d↦fˉk(v+)d\mapsto\bar f_k(v_+)d↦fˉ​k​(v+​), and these come from the model rather than from the definitions.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. States are functions Fin L → ℝ, indexed 0,…,L−10,\dots,L-10,…,L−1 as in the paper. A helper returns vlv_lvl​ for l<Ll<Ll<L and 000 at l=Ll=Ll=L. A function g(v,ζ)g(v,\zeta)g(v,ζ) is encoded on Fin (L+1) → ℝ with ζ\zetaζ last. The objective ψt\psi_tψt​ of (4) is encoded on Fin (L+2) → ℝ with coordinates (v+,v0,…,vL−1,ζ)(v_+,v_0,\dots,v_{L-1},\zeta)(v+​,v0​,…,vL−1​,ζ). The order is componentwise.
  • L♮-convexity on a domain DDD: (x,ξ)↦f(x−ξe)(x,\xi)\mapsto f(x-\xi e)(x,ξ)↦f(x−ξe) is submodular on {ξ≤0, x∈D, x−ξe∈D}\{\xi\le0,\ x\in D,\ x-\xi e\in D\}{ξ≤0, x∈D, x−ξe∈D}, with eee the all-ones vector on every coordinate. For D=VD=VD=V this is the paper's definition verbatim. This is the paper's definition, not Murota's translation-submodularity form, and it is stated on real vectors. The platform's discrete-convexity library (DiscreteConvex.LConvexFunctions.*) works on ZV\mathbb Z^VZV with values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}R∪{+∞}, a different domain and definition, and is not reused.
  • Time. Data are stationary, so the paper's fˉt\bar f_tfˉ​t​ depends on ttt only through the number of periods to go k=T+L+1−tk=T+L+1-tk=T+L+1−t, and "for all ttt" is "for all kkk". The minimum over z≥0z\ge0z≥0 is taken in every period, as printed in (1).
  • Explicit readings of the paper's phrases.
    • "min" (over ζ≤0\zeta\le0ζ≤0, over v+v_+v+​, over (a,w)(a,w)(a,w)) is an infimum over the constraint set. In the model every cost is nonnegative, so the infimum is genuine. The generic Lemma 2 assumes the values bounded below, and the generic milestone 5 assumes the continuation nonnegative on VVV.
    • "the dtd_tdt​ are independent and nonnegative": one law μ\muμ with μ(−∞,0)=0\mu(-\infty,0)=0μ(−∞,0)=0, since data are stationary.
    • "unit cost", "discount rate": c,h^,p≥0c,\hat h,p\ge0c,h^,p≥0 and 0<γ≤10<\gamma\le10<γ≤1.
    • Finite mean demand is added: without it q^0\hat q^0q^​0 is infinite.
    • "the optimal a=min⁡{d,v0−v1}a=\min\{d,v_0-v_1\}a=min{d,v0​−v1​}": stated as the equality of the infimum of program (4) with its value at v+=max⁡(v0−d,v1)v_+=\max(v_0-d,v_1)v+​=max(v0​−d,v1​).
  • Ruled out. A statement that holds because a value function is the junk constant 000 (constants are L♮-convex), plain submodularity on VVV in place of the shift condition, quantification over all of RL\mathbb R^LRL instead of VVV, and a goal about an arbitrary function assumed to satisfy the recursion. None of these is the paper's theorem; the goal is stated for the recursion itself.
  • Not in scope. "L♮-convex implies convex" for a generic function, which is false without regularity (a non-measurable additive function is L♮-convex in this sense); Lemma 3 and Corollary 5, for a follow-up mission that references Theorem 4; the smooth-case Hessian discussion; the infinite-horizon remarks.
  • Welcome contributions. Reusable lemmas on submodularity over sublattices of Rn\mathbb R^nRn (partial minimization, Topkis 2.7.6), on preservation of submodularity under integration, and on measurability of the value functions.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, On the structure of lost-sales inventory models, Operations Research 56(4) (2008) 937–944. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0482
  • S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in Arrow, Karlin, Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the solution of the lagged optimal inventory equation with no demand backlogging and proportional costs, SIAM Review 11(4) (1969) 572–596. https://doi.org/10.1137/1011090
  • K. Murota, Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718508
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management 2: For a Compact Convex Set of Discrete Distributions, Worst-Case CVaR Equals min_α max_π G_β(x, α, π)Research Paper

Motivation

Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is the standard coherent measure of tail risk in portfolio selection and risk-averse optimization: for a confidence level β\betaβ it is, roughly, the expected loss in the worst (1−β)(1-\beta)(1−β) fraction of outcomes. Its practical appeal comes from the representation of Rockafellar and Uryasev (2000, 2002), which writes CVaR as the minimum over a scalar threshold α\alphaα of a convex function, so that minimizing CVaR over decisions becomes a single convex (often linear) program.

That representation presupposes that the distribution of the uncertain data is known exactly. In practice the scenario probabilities are estimated, and decisions that are optimal for the estimate can perform poorly under a nearby distribution. Zhu and Fukushima (Oper. Res. 57(5), 2009) study the worst-case CVaR: the largest CVaR over a set of distributions that the decision maker considers plausible. For a finite scenario model they show (Theorem 2) that when the plausible set of probability vectors is compact and convex, the worst-case CVaR again has a min–max representation in the threshold α\alphaα. This is what makes worst-case CVaR minimization tractable: under box uncertainty it becomes a linear program and under ellipsoidal uncertainty a second-order cone program (§2.2.1–2.2.2 of the paper).

Setting

A decision x∈Rnx \in \mathbb R^nx∈Rn incurs the loss f(x,y)f(x,y)f(x,y), where y∈Rmy \in \mathbb R^my∈Rm is random. In the discrete model yyy takes the finitely many values y[1],…,y[S]y_{[1]},\dots,y_{[S]}y[1]​,…,y[S]​, the scenarios, with probabilities π1,…,πS\pi_1,\dots,\pi_Sπ1​,…,πS​, where πk≥0\pi_k \ge 0πk​≥0 and ∑kπk=1\sum_k \pi_k = 1∑k​πk​=1. Fix a confidence level 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1 and write [t]+=max⁡{t,0}[t]^+ = \max\{t,0\}[t]+=max{t,0}. The Rockafellar–Uryasev function for the distribution π\piπ is

Gβ(x,α,π)=α+11−β∑k=1Sπk [f(x,y[k])−α]+,α∈R,G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi) = \alpha + \frac{1}{1-\beta}\sum_{k=1}^S \pi_k\,[f(x,y_{[k]})-\alpha]^+, \qquad \alpha\in\mathbb R,Gβ​(x,α,π)=α+1−β1​k=1∑S​πk​[f(x,y[k]​)−α]+,α∈R,

and the CVaR of the loss at xxx under π\piπ is

CVaRβ(x,π)=min⁡α∈RGβ(x,α,π).\mathrm{CVaR}_\beta(x,\pi) = \min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R} G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi).CVaRβ​(x,π)=α∈Rmin​Gβ​(x,α,π).

The distribution is not known; it is only known to lie in an ambiguity set Pπ⊆RS\mathcal P_\pi \subseteq \mathbb R^SPπ​⊆RS of probability vectors. The worst-case CVaR at xxx is

WCVaRβ(x)=sup⁡π∈PπCVaRβ(x,π)=sup⁡π∈Pπmin⁡α∈RGβ(x,α,π).\mathrm{WCVaR}_\beta(x) = \sup_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}\mathrm{CVaR}_\beta(x,\pi) = \sup_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}\min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R} G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi).WCVaRβ​(x)=π∈Pπ​sup​CVaRβ​(x,π)=π∈Pπ​sup​α∈Rmin​Gβ​(x,α,π).

In the Lean development these objects are WorstCaseCVaR.Discrete.G, cvar and wcvar, with the scenarios given as ys : Fin S → (Fin m → ℝ) and Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​ as a set P of vectors Fin S → ℝ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 1159)

If Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​ is a nonempty compact convex set of probability vectors, then for each xxx

WCVaRβ(x)=min⁡α∈Rmax⁡π∈PπGβ(x,α,π),\mathrm{WCVaR}_\beta(x) = \min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R}\max_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi} G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi),WCVaRβ​(x)=α∈Rmin​π∈Pπ​max​Gβ​(x,α,π),

with the inner maximum attained for every α\alphaα and the outer minimum attained at some α0\alpha_0α0​. The statement fixes no constants and no particular ambiguity set.

Milestones (the steps of the paper's proof, p. 1167)

  1. Gβ(x,α,π)G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi)Gβ​(x,α,π) is convex in α\alphaα for each probability vector π\piπ and affine in π\piπ for each α\alphaα.
  2. There is one nonempty closed bounded interval A\mathcal AA such that, for every π∈Pπ\pi\in\mathcal P_\piπ∈Pπ​, min⁡α∈RGβ(x,α,π)=min⁡α∈AGβ(x,α,π)\min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R} G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi) = \min_{\alpha\in\mathcal A} G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi)minα∈R​Gβ​(x,α,π)=minα∈A​Gβ​(x,α,π).
  3. Lemma 1 (p. 1157, Ky Fan's minimax theorem): for convex–concave, suitably semicontinuous ϕ\phiϕ on a product of nonempty compact convex sets, min⁡xmax⁡yϕ=max⁡ymin⁡xϕ\min_x\max_y\phi = \max_y\min_x\phiminx​maxy​ϕ=maxy​minx​ϕ.
  4. Lemma 1 on A×Pπ\mathcal A\times\mathcal P_\piA×Pπ​: max⁡π∈Pπmin⁡α∈AGβ=min⁡α∈Amax⁡π∈PπGβ\max_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}\min_{\alpha\in\mathcal A}G_\beta = \min_{\alpha\in\mathcal A}\max_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}G_\betamaxπ∈Pπ​​minα∈A​Gβ​=minα∈A​maxπ∈Pπ​​Gβ​.
  5. The min-max inequality inf⁡α∈Rsup⁡π∈PπGβ(x,α,π)≥sup⁡π∈Pπmin⁡α∈RGβ(x,α,π)\inf_{\alpha\in\mathbb R}\sup_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi) \ge \sup_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}\min_{\alpha\in\mathbb R}G_\beta(x,\alpha,\pi)infα∈R​supπ∈Pπ​​Gβ​(x,α,π)≥supπ∈Pπ​​minα∈R​Gβ​(x,α,π).

Significance

Theorem 2 converts a supremum over distributions of a minimum over thresholds into a minimum over thresholds of a worst case of a function that is affine in π\piπ. Minimizing WCVaRβ(x)\mathrm{WCVaR}_\beta(x)WCVaRβ​(x) over decisions xxx is therefore the single minimization problem (16)–(20) of the paper in the variables (x,u,α,θ)(x,u,\alpha,\theta)(x,u,α,θ), whose only nonstandard constraint is max⁡π∈Pπ(α+11−βπTu)≤θ\max_{\pi\in\mathcal P_\pi}(\alpha+\frac{1}{1-\beta}\pi^Tu)\le\thetamaxπ∈Pπ​​(α+1−β1​πTu)≤θ. For box and ellipsoidal ambiguity sets that constraint is dualized into linear or conic constraints, which gives the robust portfolio models of §§2.2.1–3 of the paper. The same exchange of sup⁡π\sup_\pisupπ​ and min⁡α\min_\alphaminα​ underlies many later distributionally robust CVaR models.

The result is proved in the paper (appendix, p. 1167) and is not open. The mission produces a machine-checked proof of it, which to our knowledge does not exist. Mathlib contains Sion's minimax theorem (Sion.exists_isSaddlePointOn), which covers Lemma 1; what is missing is the CVaR-specific part: the convexity of GβG_\betaGβ​ in α\alphaα, the reduction of the threshold to a compact interval uniform over Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​, and the passage from the compact interval back to all of R\mathbb RR.

Difficulty

The obvious approach applies a minimax theorem directly to GβG_\betaGβ​ on R×Pπ\mathbb R\times\mathcal P_\piR×Pπ​. That fails because R\mathbb RR is not compact, and minimax equalities on a noncompact factor can fail; the threshold must first be confined to a bounded interval, and the interval must work for every π∈Pπ\pi\in\mathcal P_\piπ∈Pπ​ simultaneously. After the exchange on the interval, the minimum over the interval has to be identified with the infimum over all of R\mathbb RR, which needs the min-max inequality on the unrestricted line. A second subtlety is attainment: every "min" and "max" in the statement is a claim that an extremum exists, and in the real-valued formalization each must be exhibited rather than read off from a supremum.

Formalization scope

Conventions committed to in the Lean statements:

  • Scenarios are indexed zero-based by Fin S; probability vectors are elements of stdSimplex ℝ (Fin S).
  • The confidence level satisfies 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1 in every statement (the paper says only that β\betaβ is a confidence level, usually above 0.90.90.9).
  • CVaRβ(x,π)\mathrm{CVaR}_\beta(x,\pi)CVaRβ​(x,π) is defined as the paper does for discrete distributions, as the minimum of Gβ(x,⋅,π)G_\beta(x,\cdot,\pi)Gβ​(x,⋅,π), encoded as the real infimum of its values; WCVaRβ(x)\mathrm{WCVaR}_\beta(x)WCVaRβ​(x) is the real supremum of the image of Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​. Both are true infima and suprema under the hypotheses carried by every theorem.
  • Theorem 2's hypothesis "Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​ is a compact convex set" is completed by two standing assumptions of §2.2: Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​ consists of probability vectors, and it is nonempty. Without the first, Gβ(x,⋅,π)G_\beta(x,\cdot,\pi)Gβ​(x,⋅,π) can be unbounded below and the real infimum returns a junk value; without the second the supremum is over the empty set.
  • Lemma 1 is stated with lower semicontinuity in xxx and upper semicontinuity in yyy, which the paper omits and which are needed for the extrema to exist; its conclusion is a saddle point, equivalent to the attained min–max equality.
  • In the goal, the right-hand side exhibits an explicit minimizer α0\alpha_0α0​ and the inner maximum is shown to be attained; neither is replaced by a bare infimum or supremum.

No vacuous version of the goal is admissible: the ambiguity set must be nonempty and consist of probability vectors, and the minimum over α\alphaα must be witnessed.

The development needs only finite sums, convexity on R\mathbb RR and on the simplex, compactness of Pπ\mathcal P_\piPπ​ and of closed intervals, and Mathlib's minimax theorem. The reduction to a bounded interval and the min-max inequality are reusable for other finite-scenario CVaR results. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of the goal that avoid the interval reduction.

Selected references

  • S. Zhu and M. Fukushima, Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management, Operations Research 57(5):1155–1168, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0684
  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Optimization of Conditional Value-at-Risk, Journal of Risk 2(3):21–41, 2000. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Conditional Value-at-Risk for General Loss Distributions, Journal of Banking & Finance 26(7):1443–1471, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-4266(02)00271-6
  • K. Fan, Minimax Theorems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 39(1):42–47, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.39.1.42
  • M. Sion, On General Minimax Theorems, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 8(1):171–176, 1958. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1958.8.171
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