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CombinatoricsDiscrete GeometryGraph Theory+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Geometry of Graphs and Some of Its Algorithmic Applications 4: The m-Cube Has Isometric Dimension mResearch Paper

Why graph dimension matters

A finite graph has distances defined by the lengths of its shortest paths. Representing those distances inside a normed vector space lets geometric language describe a combinatorial object, but the number of coordinates required can depend sharply on the graph. The isometric dimension asks for the smallest dimension of any real normed space that preserves every graph distance exactly. Linial, London, and Rabinovich study this invariant alongside metric embeddings and algorithmic uses of graph geometry in their 1995 paper. The cube is a useful test case: its vertices already have an obvious coordinate description, while the theorem must show that no different norm compresses those exact distances into fewer coordinates.

The paper's Section 5.3 relates isometric dimension to the rank of a matrix recording vertex distances in a maximum norm. It then computes the dimension of an even cycle and uses an isometric cycle inside the cube. These are known results of the paper, not an open conjecture. The mission isolates the rank characterization, the cycle calculation, and the cube calculation as reusable formal targets.

Graphs, norms, and the cube

For a finite connected simple graph G=(V,E)G=(V,E)G=(V,E), let dG(x,y)d_G(x,y)dG​(x,y) be the minimum number of edges in a path from xxx to yyy. A norm NNN on Rd\mathbb R^dRd is nonnegative, vanishes only at zero, satisfies N(av)=∣a∣N(v)N(av)=|a|N(v)N(av)=∣a∣N(v), and obeys N(u+v)≤N(u)+N(v)N(u+v)\leq N(u)+N(v)N(u+v)≤N(u)+N(v). An isometric embedding is a map φ:V→Rd\varphi:V\to\mathbb R^dφ:V→Rd such that N(φ(x)−φ(y))=dG(x,y)N(\varphi(x)-\varphi(y))=d_G(x,y)N(φ(x)−φ(y))=dG​(x,y) for every pair of vertices. The number dim⁡(G)\dim(G)dim(G) is the least ddd for which some norm and some such map exist. The paper states the more general metric-space definition in Definition 2.1 and adopts connected graphs as the standing convention in Section 5.1 (pp. 218–219, 229).

The mmm-cube has binary strings x=(x1,…,xm)x=(x_1,\ldots,x_m)x=(x1​,…,xm​) as vertices. Two strings are adjacent when exactly one coordinate differs. Its graph distance is the Hamming distance, the number of differing coordinates. For m≥2m\geq2m≥2, the even cycle C2mC_{2m}C2m​ has 2m2m2m vertices in cyclic order, each adjacent to its two neighbors. A graph JJJ is an isometric subgraph of GGG when its distances between its own vertices agree with their distances in GGG.

An ∣V∣×r|V|\times r∣V∣×r real matrix MMM implements GGG when the maximum absolute coordinate difference between rows iii and jjj is dG(i,j)d_G(i,j)dG​(i,j), for every pair. The number of columns rrr is allowed to vary; the matrix rank is its ordinary linear-algebraic rank. This is the matrix object in Theorem 5.7, p. 232.

Formalization targets

The first main intermediate target is the rank characterization

dim⁡(G)=min⁡M implements Grank⁡(M).\dim(G)=\min_{M\text{ implements }G}\operatorname{rank}(M).dim(G)=M implements Gmin​rank(M).

The next is the even-cycle result, stated for m≥2m\geq2m≥2:

dim⁡(C2m)=m.\dim(C_{2m})=m.dim(C2m​)=m.

The goal is Corollary 5.12, p. 233, for every positive integer mmm:

dim⁡(m-Cube)=m.\boxed{\dim(m\text{-Cube})=m.}dim(m-Cube)=m.​

The milestone list also records the isometric-subgraph lower bound, the nonsingularity of the distance matrix of a path, an isometric embedding of the cube into ℓ1m\ell_1^mℓ1m​, and an isometric C2mC_{2m}C2m​ inside the cube. The paper's proof of the corollary names the last two facts in consecutive sentences (p. 233).

What the result establishes

The upper bound says the familiar mmm binary coordinates suffice: the cube embeds in ℓ1m\ell_1^mℓ1m​ with all distances preserved. The lower bound is stronger than a claim about that particular norm or embedding. It rules out every real normed space of dimension below mmm, regardless of its norm. The even cycle provides a separate exact dimension calculation, while Theorem 5.7 gives a matrix-rank way to study other finite graph metrics. These statements separate the graph invariant from whichever embedding happens to be easiest to draw (Section 5.3, pp. 232–233).

The paper proves these claims mathematically. The remaining formalization work is to build machine-checked proofs of their precise statements, including the finite-dimensional norm interface, graph-distance calculations, implementing matrices, and the rank lower bound. The definitions of normed realization and implementing matrix can be reused for other graphs; the path-distance determinant can be used independently of graph embedding questions. The mission's theorem files are open proof targets, not claims that these proofs have already been checked in Lean.

Where the difficulty lies

Placing binary cube vertices in ℓ1m\ell_1^mℓ1m​ gives an immediate candidate for an upper bound, but it cannot by itself exclude embeddings into lower-dimensional spaces with a different norm. The lower bound has to control all norms. Theorem 5.7 converts that unrestricted geometric question into a rank statement for every implementing matrix, and Proposition 5.10 supplies the exact cycle dimension needed by the cube argument (pp. 232–233).

The paper's printed proof of Proposition 5.10 first obtains only rank⁡(A)≥m−1\operatorname{rank}(A)\geq m-1rank(A)≥m−1, then says a more careful analysis yields mmm without spelling it out. That final rank step is a genuine proof obligation for solvers; the stated proposition and its use in Corollary 5.12 are retained exactly (p. 233). The path-distance matrix cited in that proof is nonsingular when its size is at least two; size one would be a zero matrix.

Formalization scope

Lean represents an arbitrary ddd-dimensional real normed space by a norm function on Fin d → ℝ. This includes every finite-dimensional real normed space up to a choice of coordinates. The isoDim definition takes the least natural-number dimension admitting an isometric embedding, with equality of distances for every vertex pair. The graph metric comes from SimpleGraph.dist; connectedness is explicit where the paper assumes it. The cube is the graph on Fin m → Bool with Hamming-distance-one adjacency, and C2mC_{2m}C2m​ is Mathlib's cycleGraph (2 * m). The goal assumes m≥1m\geq1m≥1; its m=1m=1m=1 case is direct, while the cycle milestones use m≥2m\geq2m≥2. A zero-dimensional cube consists of one vertex and is covered by the auxiliary upper-bound statement, though the goal follows the paper's positive-dimensional convention.

An implementing matrix has arbitrary finite column count. Instead of taking a maximum over an empty index set, the formal definition requires all column differences to be bounded by the graph distance and a column to attain that distance for distinct rows. This agrees with the paper's maximum formula whenever columns are present and handles a one-vertex graph with zero columns. Matrix rank is taken over R\mathbb RR; the path-distance matrix has entries ∣r−s∣|r-s|∣r−s∣ for indices 0,…,m−10,\ldots,m-10,…,m−1. The infimum over achievable dimensions or ranks is a minimum, since these are nonempty subsets of N\mathbb NN for finite connected graphs. No asymptotic O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) or Ω(⋅)\Omega(\cdot)Ω(⋅) bound occurs in these targets, so there is no hidden constant to instantiate.

The statements require genuine norm axioms and exact graph distances. Allowing a seminorm, assuming the desired dimension bound, or replacing the cube by a path would empty the main claim. Useful contributions include the cube-distance calculation, the path determinant, an exact even-cycle lower bound, and the general rank characterization. The paper makes no running-time claim for these particular results; no algorithmic complexity assertion is included.

Selected references

  • N. Linial, E. London, Y. Rabinovich, The geometry of graphs and some of its algorithmic applications, Combinatorica 15(2), 215–245, 1995. DOI: 10.1007/BF01200757.
  • J. H. van Lint, R. M. Wilson, A Course in Combinatorics, Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp. 64–65, cited as [44] by Linial et al. for the path distance-matrix fact. Book record.
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

The Weighted Majority Algorithm 1: WM Makes at Most log(w_init/w_fin)/log(2/(1+β)) Mistakes on Any SequenceResearch Paper

Motivation

In online prediction, a learner makes a forecast before seeing the next label. A collection of other forecasters may offer useful advice, but the learner need not know beforehand which forecaster will perform well. Littlestone and Warmuth's Weighted Majority Algorithm (WM) gives a deterministic way to combine such advice. Its guarantees hold for every finite sequence of instances and labels, including sequences chosen without any probability model. That worst-case setting is useful when the reliability of the forecasters can change or when no data-generating distribution has been justified. The paper develops WM and several variants; this mission isolates its basic mistake bound. Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994.

Setting

A finite pool has nnn members, each of which predicts either 000 or 111 on every trial. The true label on trial ttt is ρt∈{0,1}\rho_t\in\{0,1\}ρt​∈{0,1}, and member iii predicts xt,i∈{0,1}x_{t,i}\in\{0,1\}xt,i​∈{0,1}. The master prediction is λt∈{0,1}\lambda_t\in\{0,1\}λt​∈{0,1}. Pool members may themselves be learning algorithms, so their predictions may reflect all earlier labels. The mission treats their prediction vectors and the labels as arbitrary finite sequences; no independence or stationarity is assumed.

Each member begins with a strictly positive real weight w0,iw_{0,i}w0,i​. Before trial ttt, let wt,iw_{t,i}wt,i​ be its current weight. For b∈{0,1}b\in\{0,1\}b∈{0,1}, let qt,bq_{t,b}qt,b​ be the sum of weights of members predicting bbb. WM predicts the value with the larger backing total. When the two totals tie, either binary prediction is allowed. After the label is revealed, WM changes weights only if its own prediction was wrong. On such a trial, each member that predicted the wrong label has its weight multiplied by a fixed factor β\betaβ with 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1; every other member retains its weight. If WM predicted correctly, every weight stays as it was. This is the version of the algorithm stated in §1 of the paper. A footnote there says the bounds also apply to the variant that updates on every trial. Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994, p. 215.

Write Wt=∑iwt,iW_t=\sum_i w_{t,i}Wt​=∑i​wt,i​ for the total pool weight at a trial boundary. Thus W0=winitW_0=w_{\mathrm{init}}W0​=winit​ and WT=wfinW_T=w_{\mathrm{fin}}WT​=wfin​ after TTT trials. Let mmm count the trials with λt≠ρt\lambda_t\ne\rho_tλt​=ρt​. The default initial weights in the paper are all one, but its Theorem 2.1 permits arbitrary positive initial weights. Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994, pp. 220–221.

Formalization targets

The two milestones state the weight facts used immediately before and within Theorem 2.1. First, on each trial where WM errs,

Wt+1≤1+β2Wt.W_{t+1}\le \frac{1+\beta}{2}W_t.Wt+1​≤21+β​Wt​.

Across the whole sequence, with mmm master mistakes, the corresponding estimate is

WT≤W0(1+β2)m.W_T\le W_0\left(\frac{1+\beta}{2}\right)^m.WT​≤W0​(21+β​)m.

The goal is the paper's Theorem 2.1, retaining its explicit constant:

m≤log⁡(W0/WT)log⁡ ⁣(2/(1+β))when WT>0.m\le \frac{\log(W_0/W_T)} {\log\!\left(2/(1+\beta)\right)} \qquad\text{when }W_T>0.m≤log(2/(1+β))log(W0​/WT​)​when WT​>0.

The logarithm base is immaterial because the same base occurs above and below the fraction. The paper explicitly uses this convention for ratios of logarithms. The positive-final-weight condition represents the paper's statement that the displayed logarithmic bound is vacuous when all weight has vanished, which can happen for β=0\beta=0β=0. The whole-sequence weight estimate remains meaningful in that case. Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994, pp. 220–221.

Significance

The result limits the mistakes of a master predictor without assigning probabilities to the predictions or labels. It relates a visible property of the run, the reduction of total weight, to the number of master errors. Later bounds in the paper use this starting point to compare WM with an individual pool member and to analyze related algorithms; this mission fixes the initial, exact-constant result on which those comparisons rest. The β=0\beta=0β=0 case includes the paper's Halving Algorithm interpretation when initial weights are equal. Littlestone and Warmuth, 1994, pp. 215, 221–222.

The mathematical theorem is proved in the 1994 paper. The remaining task here is to represent its algorithm and finite-sequence bound in Lean and supply machine-checked proofs. A complete development would give later formalizations a reusable finite-pool voting and weight-update model, along with a checked potential estimate. The local draft statements compile; their proofs remain open. A separate, sorry-free local check constructs a run for every finite prediction and label sequence with a nonempty pool and valid weights and parameter, so the quantified run relation has witnesses.

Difficulty

The master can be wrong even when some pool members are right, and members may change their predictions over time. Counting one member's errors therefore does not directly control the master's error count. The exact contraction constant also depends on which side of a weighted vote the master chose, including the permitted tie case. When β=0\beta=0β=0, a single mistake can erase all weight backing the wrong label, so the logarithmic expression must be interpreted with care if no positive weight remains. These are features of the stated algorithm, rather than assumptions about how the sequence was generated.

Formalization scope

The formalization indexes pool members by Fin n and trials by Fin T. Booleans represent binary predictions and labels; weights and β\betaβ are real. A WM run is a relation on the full sequence of weights and master predictions, admitting every choice at a tied vote. Its update rule changes weights only after a master mistake, scales exactly the members that disagreed with the label, and leaves all other weights unchanged. Theorems require 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1 and strictly positive initial member weights. The goal additionally requires WT>0W_T>0WT​>0, while the two weight inequalities permit WT=0W_T=0WT​=0. Natural logarithms instantiate the paper's common-base logarithm convention. Finite sums and a finite mistake count match the paper's finite-sequence convention.

The statement ranges over arbitrary pool predictions and labels, so it cannot be satisfied merely by selecting an easy input sequence. The run relation allows both legal outcomes of a tie; selecting one favorable tie rule would weaken the target. The sorry-free run-existence check also rules out a vacuous theorem caused by an inconsistent update relation. The paper's update-on-every-trial variant, its member-specific corollaries, and its later algorithms are outside this mission's goal.

A completed formalization needs finite sums of real weights, cardinalities of finite sets of mistake trials, a finite induction over trial boundaries, and real logarithm inequalities. The run definition and the first two bounds can be reused in the later parts of this paper's formalization. Contributions that prove the exact stated milestones or supply supporting facts about legal runs and nonnegative weights are within scope.

Selected references

  • Nick Littlestone and Manfred K. Warmuth, The Weighted Majority Algorithm, Information and Computation 108(2), 212–261, 1994. DOI: 10.1006/inco.1994.1009.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Efficient Algorithms for Scheduling Semiconductor Burn-In Operations 3: Dynamic Program DP3 Minimizes the Number of Tardy Equal-Length Jobs on a Batch Machine with Agreeable Release and Due DatesResearch Paper

Motivation

Semiconductor burn-in tests hold several jobs in an oven at once. A production planner must decide which jobs share each oven run and in what order those runs take place. A job may become available only after earlier manufacturing steps, and a due date marks when its test should finish. The planning objective here is to minimize how many jobs finish after their due dates. Lee, Uzsoy, and Martin-Vega studied this batch scheduling problem and gave a dynamic program for the case of equal processing times and compatible release and due-date orders (Lee, Uzsoy, and Martin-Vega 1992, §4, pp. 770–771).

Setting

There are nnn jobs and one batch processing machine with capacity B≥1B\ge1B≥1. Job jjj has release time rjr_jrj​, due date djd_jdj​, and processing time pjp_jpj​. In the main problem every processing time equals a common value ppp. A batch is a nonempty set of at most BBB jobs. Its processing time is the longest processing time among its members; it begins only after all its jobs have been released and the previous batch has finished. Processing is uninterrupted. A schedule is an ordered list of disjoint batches that covers every job. Each batch starts at the earliest time allowed by these conditions.

The completion time Cj(S)C_j(S)Cj​(S) of job jjj in schedule SSS is the completion time of its batch. A job is on time when Cj(S)≤djC_j(S)\le d_jCj​(S)≤dj​ and tardy when dj<Cj(S)d_j<C_j(S)dj​<Cj​(S). Write U(S)=#{j:dj<Cj(S)}U(S)=\#\{j:d_j<C_j(S)\}U(S)=#{j:dj​<Cj​(S)} and let U∗U^*U∗ be the minimum of U(S)U(S)U(S) over all valid complete batch schedules. Tardy jobs still belong to a schedule and consume machine time. An on-time batch is one whose every member is on time.

For the structural lemmas, agreeable release times and due dates mean that ri<rjr_i<r_jri​<rj​ implies di≤djd_i\le d_jdi​≤dj​. For the dynamic program, jobs are indexed so that both rjr_jrj​ and djd_jdj​ are nondecreasing. A batch is in batch-EDD order relative to later batches when no job in it has a later due date than a job in a later batch. A batch of consecutive jobs contains exactly an index interval. These are the paper's Lemmas 4 and 5 and Definition 1 (pp. 767, 770).

Formalization targets

Structural optimal schedules

Lemma 4 asserts that some optimum has an initial list of wholly on-time batches in batch-EDD order, followed by batches containing only tardy jobs. Lemma 5 asserts that some optimum has every wholly on-time batch made of consecutive indexed jobs. These are existence statements about schedules of all jobs; neither restricts the feasible schedules over which U∗U^*U∗ is defined.

Correctness of Algorithm DP3

Let f(i,j)f(i,j)f(i,j) be the table defined by Algorithm DP3 for the first jjj jobs and a selected count iii of on-time jobs. Its boundary values are f(0,j)=0f(0,j)=0f(0,j)=0 and f(i,j)=+∞f(i,j)=+\inftyf(i,j)=+∞ for i>ji>ji>j. For 1≤i≤j1\le i\le j1≤i≤j, it takes the minimum of f(i,j−1)f(i,j-1)f(i,j−1) and the eligible transitions that append a batch of kkk jobs, 1≤k≤min⁡(B,i)1\le k\le\min(B,i)1≤k≤min(B,i). A transition uses max⁡{f(i−k,j−k),rj}+p\max\{f(i-k,j-k),r_j\}+pmax{f(i−k,j−k),rj​}+p and is eligible when that completion time does not exceed dj−k+1d_{j-k+1}dj−k+1​. The main target is

U∗=n−max⁡{i∈{0,…,n}:f(i,n)<+∞}.U^*=n-\max\{i\in\{0,\ldots,n\}:f(i,n)<+\infty\}.U∗=n−max{i∈{0,…,n}:f(i,n)<+∞}.

The maximum includes zero, which is always feasible in the table. The printed range begins at one and has no value when every job is tardy. This is the corrected boundary reading of the displayed answer on p. 771 (source).

Unequal processing times

The paper also gives a variant for jobs available at time zero, with nondecreasing processing times and due dates. Its transition replaces the release-time maximum and common ppp by f(i−k,j−k)+pjf(i-k,j-k)+p_jf(i−k,j−k)+pj​. The corresponding correctness statement is a further milestone (p. 771).

Significance

The structural results connect the optimization over arbitrary complete batch schedules to the restricted arrangements represented by the table. DP3 correctness then identifies the number of tardy jobs from finite table entries, including instances with no on-time job. The variable-time extension covers the related case where each job has its own duration but all jobs are available together.

The paper proves these results informally; this mission leaves their Lean proofs open. A complete formalization would supply reusable definitions of batch schedules, release-limited completion times, tardy-job counts, and a finite dynamic program with an explicit infinite value. The machine-checked statements and the local instance check establish the interface for that work, while the structural and correctness theorems remain solver targets.

Difficulty

The objective ranges over every valid batching and every processing order. The table examines an indexed prefix and places the last on-time batch among consecutive jobs. Establishing that the table's choices preserve the full optimum requires the existence statements in Lemmas 4 and 5. Reordering jobs is delicate because delaying a batch can change release feasibility and can make an earlier on-time job late. Equal due dates also require care: a due-date order alone need not put the latest release of a proposed batch at its last index.

Formalization scope

Jobs use Fin n, with index zero representing the paper's job 1; the table's jjj is a prefix length. Data and completion times are natural numbers, matching the paper's integer-data setting; +∞+\infty+∞ in the table is WithTop ℕ. The schedule model uses nonempty batches of cardinality at most BBB, pairwise disjointness, and complete coverage. A batch starts at the maximum of its latest release and the preceding completion time. This earliest-start convention is sufficient for minimizing the regular tardy-job objective. The empty job set is included: its empty schedule has zero tardy jobs.

The strict implication ri<rj⇒di≤djr_i<r_j\Rightarrow d_i\le d_jri​<rj​⇒di​≤dj​ makes the paper's loose “agreeable” condition precise without forcing equal due dates for tied release times. For the recurrence, both release times and due dates are nondecreasing in job index, including their ties. This ensures that rjr_jrj​ is the last batch's latest release and dj−k+1d_{j-k+1}dj−k+1​ its earliest due date. The variable-time version similarly indexes by nondecreasing processing times and due dates, so the last job gives the batch duration. The table uses a minimum over exactly the paper's range 1≤k≤min⁡(B,i)1\le k\le\min(B,i)1≤k≤min(B,i), with an empty range giving +∞+\infty+∞. Zero is included in the final maximum. Tardy jobs are scheduled in the underlying optimum; defining the optimum as an on-time subset or defining the table as that optimum would erase the two structural claims.

This mission covers correctness only. The paper's O(n2B)O(n^2B)O(n2B) running-time statement and the bisection procedure are outside the formalization because they would need a specified computational cost model. The paper's FBEDD remark for this objective is also excluded: a three-job instance contradicts it. Contributions to the open theorem proofs, schedule-existence facts, and reusable batch scheduling lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • C.-Y. Lee, R. Uzsoy, and L. A. Martin-Vega, Efficient Algorithms for Scheduling Semiconductor Burn-In Operations, Operations Research 40(4), 1992, pp. 764–775. DOI: 10.1287/opre.40.4.764.
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Application of the Branch and Bound Technique to Some Flow-Shop Scheduling Problems 2: Branch and Bound with the Two-Machine Lower Bound Finds a Sequence of Least Mean Completion TimeResearch Paper

Motivation

In a two-machine flow shop, each of nnn jobs is processed first on machine AAA and then on machine BBB, and the order of the jobs is to be chosen. For the makespan (the finishing time of the last job), Johnson (1954) gave an exact sorting rule. For the sum (equivalently, the mean) of the completion times, no such rule is known: the problem is NP-hard in the strong sense (Garey, Johnson and Sethi, 1976), and exact methods search the n!n!n! sequences implicitly.

Ignall and Schrage (1965) were among the first to apply branch and bound to sequencing. They view the n!n!n! sequences as the leaves of a tree of partial sequences, keep a list of partial sequences ranked by a lower bound, and always extend the most promising one. For the two-machine mean-completion-time problem they introduced a lower bound, built from two relaxations (one where machine AAA is the bottleneck, one where machine BBB is), that became the template for many later flow-shop bounds.

Setting

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 jobs; job iii has processing time aia_iai​ on machine AAA and bib_ibi​ on machine BBB. A sequence is a permutation σ\sigmaσ of the jobs, processed in that order on both machines with every operation started as early as possible. The completion time di(σ)d_i(\sigma)di​(σ) of job iii is the time machine BBB finishes it, and the objective is ∑i=1ndi(σ)\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma)∑i=1n​di​(σ).

A node JrJ_rJr​ is a partial sequence of rrr jobs; Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is the set of the n−rn-rn−r jobs not in it; kkk is the last job of JrJ_rJr​ and dkd_kdk​ its completion time; did_idi​ (i∈Jri\in J_ri∈Jr​) are the completion times of the jobs of JrJ_rJr​. For an ordering (i1,…,in−r)(i_1,\dots,i_{n-r})(i1​,…,in−r​) of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​,

Tr=∑p=1n−r[∑j∈Jraj+(n−r−p+1)aip+bip],T_r=\sum_{p=1}^{n-r}\Big[\sum_{j\in J_r}a_j+(n-r-p+1)a_{i_p}+b_{i_p}\Big],Tr​=p=1∑n−r​[j∈Jr​∑​aj​+(n−r−p+1)aip​​+bip​​],

and for an ordering (j1,…,jn−r)(j_1,\dots,j_{n-r})(j1​,…,jn−r​) of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​,

Sr=∑p=1n−r[max⁡(dk,∑j∈Jraj+min⁡i∈Jˉrai)+(n−r−p+1)bjp].S_r=\sum_{p=1}^{n-r}\Big[\max\Big(d_k,\sum_{j\in J_r}a_j+\min_{i\in\bar J_r}a_i\Big)+(n-r-p+1)b_{j_p}\Big].Sr​=p=1∑n−r​[max(dk​,j∈Jr​∑​aj​+i∈Jˉr​min​ai​)+(n−r−p+1)bjp​​].

T^r\hat T_rT^r​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ are their minima over all orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​, and the lower bound of the node is

LB(Jr)=∑i∈Jrdi+max⁡(T^r,S^r).LB(J_r)=\sum_{i\in J_r}d_i+\max(\hat T_r,\hat S_r).LB(Jr​)=i∈Jr​∑​di​+max(T^r​,S^r​).

The procedure starts with a list holding only the empty node. A step removes the first node, creates one child for every unscheduled job by appending it, and inserts the children into the list ranked by LBLBLB (a new node goes before old nodes with equal bound). It stops the first time the first node of the list is terminal, i.e. has scheduled n−1n-1n−1 jobs, so that its last job is forced.

Formalization targets

Goal: the procedure finds a sequence of least mean completion time

For all real data, (i) the procedure reaches a list whose first node PPP is terminal, and (ii) whenever that happens, the sequence σ∗\sigma^\astσ∗ formed by PPP and its one unscheduled job satisfies

∑i=1ndi(σ∗)≤∑i=1ndi(σ)for every sequence σ.\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma^\ast)\le\sum_{i=1}^n d_i(\sigma)\qquad\text{for every sequence }\sigma .i=1∑n​di​(σ∗)≤i=1∑n​di​(σ)for every sequence σ.

Milestones

  1. For 1≤r≤n−11\le r\le n-11≤r≤n−1 and every sequence σ\sigmaσ beginning with JrJ_rJr​: TrT_rTr​ of the order in which σ\sigmaσ processes Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is at most ∑i∈Jˉrdi(σ)\sum_{i\in\bar J_r}d_i(\sigma)∑i∈Jˉr​​di​(σ), hence so is T^r\hat T_rT^r​ (pp. 405–406).
  2. An ordering of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ by increasing aia_iai​ attains T^r\hat T_rT^r​ (p. 406).
  3. An ordering of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ by increasing bjb_jbj​ attains S^r\hat S_rS^r​ (p. 406).
  4. The analogue of 1 for SrS_rSr​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ (p. 406).
  5. LB(Jr)≤∑idi(σ)LB(J_r)\le\sum_i d_i(\sigma)LB(Jr​)≤∑i​di​(σ) for every σ\sigmaσ beginning with JrJ_rJr​ (p. 406).
  6. At depth n−1n-1n−1, LBLBLB equals the value of the node's unique completion (labelled: what the stopping rule of p. 402 needs).
  7. Without delays, job ipi_pip​ completes at ∑Jraj+ai1+⋯+aip+bip\sum_{J_r}a_j+a_{i_1}+\dots+a_{i_p}+b_{i_p}∑Jr​​aj​+ai1​​+⋯+aip​​+bip​​ and ∑Jˉrdi=Tr\sum_{\bar J_r}d_i=T_r∑Jˉr​​di​=Tr​ (pp. 405–406).
  8. The three-job example of p. 408: 1–2 is optimal for jobs 1, 2, while 3–2–1 is optimal for all three.

Significance

The goal is the correctness of the paper's algorithm for the two-machine problem: the sequence it returns is optimal, not merely good, and it returns one for every input. The lower-bound milestones are the paper's own justification of its bound, and the sorting milestones show that the bound is computable in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) per node rather than by a minimization over (n−r)!(n-r)!(n−r)! orderings.

On the formal side, no item on the platform treats flow-shop lower bounds or branch and bound over sequences; the nearest is the branch-and-bound mission for jointly constrained biconvex programs (BiconvexProg.BranchBound, Al-Khayyal and Falk 1983), an unrelated algorithm over boxes. The paper's arguments are short and informal ("it should be evident"); the formalization makes explicit that the SrS_rSr​ bound holds for every order and every input, which the paper derives only by analogy with TrT_rTr​. The published definitions of Johnson's as-soon-as-possible schedule (from the Johnson 1954 missions) are reused for the completion times.

Difficulty

The two halves of the bound are relaxations of different kinds. TrT_rTr​ ignores waiting on machine BBB; SrS_rSr​ ignores idle time on machine BBB after its first job of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ and replaces that job's machine-AAA time by the smallest one. The paper's description of SrS_rSr​ as "the sum of the completion times" when min⁡b≥max⁡a\min b\ge\max aminb≥maxa is not an identity, since min⁡a\min amina replaces aj1a_{j_1}aj1​​; only the inequality is true, and it has to be proved for the given order directly. The sorting claims are rearrangement inequalities, with the coefficient n−r−p+1n-r-p+1n−r−p+1 decreasing in the position.

The goal is a statement about all n!n!n! sequences, while the procedure only ever looks at the nodes on its list, whose length changes at every step. The tempting one-line justification, that the first terminal node has the smallest bound, says nothing by itself about sequences that are not descendants of nodes still on the list, nor about whether the bound of a terminal node is the value of its sequence; and termination of the search has to be shown, not assumed.

Formalization scope

  • Jobs are Fin n (the paper's 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n shifted to 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1); processing times are arbitrary reals, with no sign condition; all statements are true without one.
  • Completion times of a full sequence come from Johnson's asapC2 (referenced definition JohnsonFlowShop.TwoStage.asapStart2). The objective is the sum of the completion times; the paper's mean differs by the fixed factor 1/n1/n1/n.
  • A node is a list of jobs; "a sequence begins with JrJ_rJr​" means JrJ_rJr​ is a prefix of its list of jobs.
  • T^r\hat T_rT^r​ and S^r\hat S_rS^r​ are defined as minima over all orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​, not by a sorted order; that sorting attains them is milestones 2 and 3. Defining them by sorting would make those milestones true by definition.
  • At the root (r=0r=0r=0) dkd_kdk​ is read as 000; the root is never ranked, and the lower-bound milestones are stated for 1≤r≤n−11\le r\le n-11≤r≤n−1.
  • Terminal nodes are at depth n−1n-1n−1. The paper says "a node that has scheduled all nnn jobs"; its own example stops at a node with three of four jobs, and its node counts end at level n−1n-1n−1.
  • Explicit readings: "is a lower bound" means ≤\le≤ the objective of every sequence beginning with the node; "will exceed" means ≥\ge≥; "the problem is solved: that node's sequence is an optimal one" means termination plus optimality over all n!n!n! sequences.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the bound is not taken over an unrestricted or empty set of orderings (the set of orderings of Jˉr\bar J_rJˉr​ is nonempty), optimality is over all permutations rather than over the nodes the run visits, and termination is part of the goal.
  • Not formalized: the reduction to permutation schedules (the paper's footnote on p. 401 asserts it for mean completion time without proof, and no platform item proves it), dominance discarding (pp. 403–405), the jobset generator, Tables I–III and the 9-job examples.

Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on as-soon-as-possible two-machine schedules (completion times of a prefix, monotonicity in the start time), are welcome.

Selected references

  • E. Ignall and L. Schrage, Application of the branch and bound technique to some flow-shop scheduling problems, Operations Research 13(3), 400–412, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.13.3.400
  • S. M. Johnson, Optimal two- and three-stage production schedules with setup times included, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 1(1), 61–68, 1954. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800010110
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson and R. Sethi, The complexity of flowshop and jobshop scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2), 117–129, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • A. H. Land and A. G. Doig, An automatic method of solving discrete programming problems, Econometrica 28(3), 497–520, 1960. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910129
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Job Matching, Coalition Formation, and Gross Substitutes 6: When Workers Are Alike in Production, Gross Substitutes Is Equivalent to Nonincreasing Returns to WorkersResearch Paper

Motivation

Kelso and Crawford's 1982 Econometrica paper studies a labor market in which firms hire sets of heterogeneous workers at individually negotiated salaries. Their existence results for the core and for competitive equilibrium, and the convergence of their salary-adjustment process, all rest on one hypothesis about each firm's technology, the gross-substitutes condition (GS): raising some workers' salaries never makes a firm drop a worker whose salary did not change. The condition has since become central to matching with contracts, ascending auctions and the theory of discrete convexity (Hatfield and Milgrom 2005; Fujishige and Yang 2003). It is defined through the firm's demand correspondence rather than through the production function, so its economic content is not obvious.

Section 6 of the paper explains that content. Its first result, Theorem 6, says that when workers are alike in production, (GS) is exactly the familiar requirement of nonincreasing returns to workers. This mission formalizes Theorem 6, the two halves of its proof, and the companion claim that with two heterogeneous workers (GS) is equivalent to subadditivity.

Setting

Fix a finite set WWW of mmm workers and a single firm. Its production technology is a function y:2W→Ry : 2^W \to \mathbb{R}y:2W→R; y(C)y(C)y(C) is the gross product when the firm hires the set CCC. A salary vector s∈RWs \in \mathbb{R}^Ws∈RW assigns to each worker iii the salary sis_isi​ the firm must pay to hire him or her. The firm's net profit is

π(C;s)=y(C)−∑i∈Csi,\pi(C; s) = y(C) - \sum_{i \in C} s_i ,π(C;s)=y(C)−i∈C∑​si​,

and CCC is demanded at sss, written C∈M(s)C \in M(s)C∈M(s), if it maximizes π( ⋅ ;s)\pi(\,\cdot\,; s)π(⋅;s) over all subsets of WWW (problem (A) of the paper). The technology satisfies (GS) if for all salary vectors s≤s~s \le \tilde ss≤s~ and every C∈M(s)C \in M(s)C∈M(s) there is C~∈M(s~)\tilde C \in M(\tilde s)C~∈M(s~) with

T(C)={ i∈C:s~i=si }⊆C~.T(C) = \{\, i \in C : \tilde s_i = s_i \,\} \subseteq \tilde C .T(C)={i∈C:s~i​=si​}⊆C~.

Workers are alike in production when the product depends only on how many are hired: y(C)=yˉ(∣C∣)y(C) = \bar y(|C|)y(C)=yˉ​(∣C∣) for some yˉ:N→R\bar y : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}yˉ​:N→R. The workers remain distinct individuals, since their salaries can differ. The function yˉ\bar yyˉ​ has nonincreasing returns to workers (DR) if

yˉ(w+1)−yˉ(w)≤yˉ(w)−yˉ(w−1)for every integer w, 1≤w≤m−1.\bar y(w + 1) - \bar y(w) \le \bar y(w) - \bar y(w - 1) \qquad \text{for every integer } w,\ 1 \le w \le m - 1 .yˉ​(w+1)−yˉ​(w)≤yˉ​(w)−yˉ​(w−1)for every integer w, 1≤w≤m−1.

A technology yyy is subadditive if y(C∪D)≤y(C)+y(D)y(C \cup D) \le y(C) + y(D)y(C∪D)≤y(C)+y(D) for disjoint C,D⊆WC, D \subseteq WC,D⊆W.

In the Lean development these are profit, IsDemanded, GrossSubstitutesOn y Set.univ, DR (Fintype.card W) ybar and Subadditive y, in the namespace KelsoCrawford.Returns.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 1499)

For every yˉ:N→R\bar y : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}yˉ​:N→R,

(DR) for yˉ on {0,…,m}  ⟺  C↦yˉ(∣C∣) satisfies (GS) on RW.\text{(DR) for } \bar y \text{ on } \{0, \dots, m\} \iff C \mapsto \bar y(|C|) \text{ satisfies (GS) on } \mathbb{R}^W .(DR) for yˉ​ on {0,…,m}⟺C↦yˉ​(∣C∣) satisfies (GS) on RW.

Milestones

  1. (DR) implies (GS) (proof of Theorem 6, p. 1499).
  2. If (DR) fails, (GS) fails (proof of Theorem 6, pp. 1499–1500): if for some www with 1≤w≤m−11 \le w \le m - 11≤w≤m−1
yˉ(w+1)−yˉ(w)>yˉ(w)−yˉ(w−1),(19)\bar y(w + 1) - \bar y(w) > \bar y(w) - \bar y(w - 1), \tag{19}yˉ​(w+1)−yˉ​(w)>yˉ​(w)−yˉ​(w−1),(19)

then C↦yˉ(∣C∣)C \mapsto \bar y(|C|)C↦yˉ​(∣C∣) violates (GS). 3. Two workers (p. 1500), off the goal's path: if ∣W∣=2|W| = 2∣W∣=2 and y(∅)=0y(\emptyset) = 0y(∅)=0, then yyy satisfies (GS) if and only if yyy is subadditive, that is v1+v2≥v12v_1 + v_2 \ge v_{12}v1​+v2​≥v12​.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 6 gives a production-side reading of (GS): restricted to identical workers it is nonincreasing returns, so (GS) can be viewed as the generalization of that convexity condition to heterogeneous workers. The paper uses this reading to explain why something like (GS) is needed for existence: without it the core and the competitive equilibrium may fail to exist, as the example of Section 6 shows (mission 7 of this series). The two-worker claim locates the boundary further: with two workers (GS) is subadditivity, while with three or more subadditivity is no longer enough.

Formalizing it. Nothing of this paper was on Prove2Me before this series. Theorem 6 is a proved result in the paper. This draft provides compiling Lean statements of both directions, with (GS) in the paper's own form (real salary vectors and the set T(C)T(C)T(C)), and of the two-worker characterization; their proofs remain open. A completed mission would provide machine-checked proofs of those statements. The statements fix the boundary conventions exactly (which www are constrained, what happens with zero or one worker), which the informal argument leaves implicit. The definitions of profit, demand and (GS) are the same as in the other missions of the series (1–5 and 7), so proofs here are reusable there.

Difficulty

For (DR) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ (GS), the natural argument sorts workers by salary and observes that a profit-maximizing firm hires the w∗w^*w∗ cheapest workers. With ties among salaries this description is not literally true (any w∗w^*w∗ cheapest workers will do), and after a salary increase the new optimal size and the new ranking change at once; showing that some new maximizer keeps every worker whose salary stayed fixed requires a careful exchange argument rather than a monotone comparison of indices. For the converse, a single failure of (DR) must be turned into an explicit pair of salary vectors; the construction must make one worker strictly demanded before the change and strictly undemanded after it, which requires controlling every competing set, not only the sets of the critical sizes www and w+1w + 1w+1. The two-worker characterization requires a case analysis over the four candidate demands at every salary pair, including ties.

Formalization scope

Workers form an arbitrary finite type W with m = Fintype.card W; a technology is a function Finset W → ℝ, and "alike in production" is the technology fun C => ybar C.card with ybar : ℕ → ℝ. Salaries are arbitrary real vectors W → ℝ, and (GS) is required on all of RW\mathbb{R}^WRW (Set.univ), the continuous version that Theorem 6 is about. A discrete market can satisfy (GS) on its salary grid while its continuous version does not, so the discrete version is a different statement and is not targeted here. (DR) is written for natural numbers with 1 ≤ w and w + 1 ≤ m, so that w - 1 never truncates. For m≤1m \le 1m≤1 it is vacuous, and no lower bound on mmm is imposed. Neither (MP) nor (NFL), yˉ(0)=0\bar y(0) = 0yˉ​(0)=0, is assumed in Theorem 6: the paper uses neither, and adding them would weaken the theorem. The two-worker claim keeps the paper's normalization y(∅)=0y(\emptyset) = 0y(∅)=0 and uses its general definition of subadditivity over disjoint pairs.

A trivializing formalization would restrict (GS) to a single salary vector, quantify demand over a subfamily of sets, or replace "some demanded set contains T(C)T(C)T(C)" by "the given set does", and is ruled out by the definitions above, which follow the paper's (A) and (GS) word for word. The read-out of the goal as two milestones is the paper's own split of its proof.

Infrastructure needed: finite sums over Finset, sorting of a finite salary vector, and elementary facts on concave sequences. Contributions that would be reusable beyond this mission include a general lemma that concave functions of cardinality yield gross-substitutes demand, and the link between (GS) and M♮^\natural♮-concavity of set functions (Murota's gross-substitutes axioms are on Prove2Me as Shuze Chen's DiscreteConvex_MConvexFunctionsC_MNatGS, a related but different object: one price per good and integer bundles). Proofs of either direction, of the two-worker claim, or of intermediate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. S. Kelso, Jr. and V. P. Crawford, Job matching, coalition formation, and gross substitutes, Econometrica 50(6) (1982), 1483–1504. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913392
  • V. P. Crawford and E. M. Knoer, Job matching with heterogeneous firms and workers, Econometrica 49(2) (1981), 437–450. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913320
  • S. Fujishige and Z. Yang, A note on Kelso and Crawford's gross substitutes condition, Mathematics of Operations Research 28(3) (2003), 463–469. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.28.3.463.16393
  • J. W. Hatfield and P. R. Milgrom, Matching with contracts, American Economic Review 95(4) (2005), 913–935. https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828054825466
  • K. Murota, Discrete Convex Analysis, SIAM, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718508
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Monotone Comparative Statics I: The Argmax Is Monotone Nondecreasing in (t, S) If and Only If f Is Quasisupermodular in x and Has the Single Crossing Property in (x; t)Research Paper

Why monotone comparative statics matters

An optimization problem often changes when a parameter changes: a price rises, a constraint expands, or a strategic environment shifts. Comparative statics asks whether the optimal choice moves in a predictable direction. The usual numerical tools, such as derivatives, can be unavailable when choices form a discrete set or the objective is neither smooth nor concave. Milgrom and Shannon's Monotonicity Theorem gives a condition expressed entirely through order and preference comparisons. It applies to individual optimization problems and supplies the order argument used later in their paper for games with strategic complementarities.

Their 1994 paper moves beyond cardinal conditions such as supermodularity and increasing differences. Those conditions imply useful comparative statics, but they can change under a strictly increasing transformation of the objective even though every argmax set stays the same. Quasisupermodularity and single crossing describe the comparisons that actually govern the argmax. The theorem characterizes these conditions through the behavior of optimizers over all constraint sets, rather than giving only a sufficient test. The historical relationship and the claims in this paragraph are described in Milgrom and Shannon, Sections 1–2.

Ordered choices, constraints, and preferences

Let XXX be a lattice: a partially ordered choice set in which every two choices x,yx,yx,y have a meet x∧yx\wedge yx∧y and a join x∨yx\vee yx∨y. Let TTT be a partially ordered parameter set and f:X×T→Rf:X\times T\to\mathbb Rf:X×T→R an objective. For any constraint set S⊆XS\subseteq XS⊆X, define the possibly empty maximizer set

M(t,S)=argmax⁡x∈Sf(x,t)={x∈S:f(y,t)≤f(x,t) for every y∈S}.M(t,S)=\operatorname{argmax}_{x\in S}f(x,t)=\{x\in S: f(y,t)\le f(x,t)\text{ for every }y\in S\}.M(t,S)=argmaxx∈S​f(x,t)={x∈S:f(y,t)≤f(x,t) for every y∈S}.

The strong set order, written A≤sBA\le_s BA≤s​B, compares subsets of the lattice by requiring a∧b∈Aa\wedge b\in Aa∧b∈A and a∨b∈Ba\vee b\in Ba∨b∈B for every a∈Aa\in Aa∈A and b∈Bb\in Bb∈B. It can compare feasible sets as well as sets of optimizers. On singleton sets it agrees with the order on XXX. It also holds vacuously if either set is empty; it is reflexive at SSS exactly when SSS is a sublattice. These are the paper's conventions on page 159.

A function g:X→Rg:X\to\mathbb Rg:X→R is quasisupermodular if, for every x,y∈Xx,y\in Xx,y∈X, both

g(x∧y)≤g(x)⇒g(y)≤g(x∨y),g(x∧y)<g(x)⇒g(y)<g(x∨y)g(x\wedge y)\le g(x)\Rightarrow g(y)\le g(x\vee y),\qquad g(x\wedge y)<g(x)\Rightarrow g(y)<g(x\vee y)g(x∧y)≤g(x)⇒g(y)≤g(x∨y),g(x∧y)<g(x)⇒g(y)<g(x∨y)

hold. The single crossing property of fff in (x;t)(x;t)(x;t) requires, whenever x′′<x′x''<x'x′′<x′ and t′′<t′t''<t't′′<t′, that a weak or strict preference for x′x'x′ over x′′x''x′′ at t′′t''t′′ remains respectively weak or strict at t′t't′. The strict version sends even a weak preference at t′′t''t′′ to a strict one at t′t't′. These definitions are given on pages 160 and 162.

Formalization targets

Theorem 4: the monotonicity equivalence

The main target is Theorem 4 on page 162:

[∀t≤t′, S≤sS′:M(t,S)≤sM(t′,S′)]⟺[∀t, f(⋅,t) is quasisupermodular on X]∧[f has single crossing in (x;t)].\bigl[\forall t\le t',\ S\le_s S': M(t,S)\le_s M(t',S')\bigr] \quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \bigl[\forall t,\ f(\cdot,t)\text{ is quasisupermodular on }X\bigr] \land\bigl[f\text{ has single crossing in }(x;t)\bigr].[∀t≤t′, S≤s​S′:M(t,S)≤s​M(t′,S′)]⟺[∀t, f(⋅,t) is quasisupermodular on X]∧[f has single crossing in (x;t)].

The milestone list records the two necessity claims and the sufficiency claim separately, using the three corresponding passages of the paper's proof. The goal keeps both directions together. It imposes no restriction on which subsets may be used as constraints.

Consequences and the stronger selection statement

Corollary 1 characterizes quasisupermodularity alone through monotonicity as the constraint set changes, with no varying parameter. Corollary 2 says that the maximizers over a sublattice themselves form a sublattice. The reflexivity remark identifies when S≤sSS\le_s SS≤s​S holds. Theorem 4′ uses the strict single crossing property and a nondecreasing feasible-set correspondence S:T→2XS:T\to 2^XS:T→2X to conclude that every selection of maximizers is nondecreasing. These nearby results share the definition layer with the main theorem and give distinct targets for the formal development.

What the result supplies

The equivalence turns an order property of an entire family of optimization problems into two properties of the objective. In particular, its converse shows that if every feasible-set comparison produces monotone maximizers, then quasisupermodularity and single crossing are forced. This matters for problems where an analyst can reason about choice behavior more directly than about algebraic properties of fff. The corollaries also separate the effects of constraints and parameters and describe the structure of the optimal-choice set. The paper develops these consequences on pages 162–163.

The theorem is proved in the paper. The remaining work here is a machine-checked Lean proof of the ordinal characterization, its two directions, and the adjacent consequences. Published Prove2Me definitions already encode the strong set order, and its Topkis series covers related cardinal hypotheses such as supermodularity and increasing differences. This mission adds the paper's quasisupermodularity and single crossing predicates and seeks formal proofs of the distinct ordinal results. The separate characterization and linear-perturbation results of the same paper are targets of the other missions in this series.

Where the proof is difficult

The obstacle is the interaction of two orders. An increase in ttt changes preferences, while an increase in SSS changes which choices can be compared. A pointwise claim that an optimizer rises does not follow from either order condition alone, particularly when maximizers tie or are incomparable. The main theorem concerns sets of maximizers under the strong set order, so both the meet and join of optimizers at two parameter–constraint pairs must land in the correct maximizing sets. Conversely, observing monotonicity for one fixed feasible set cannot establish quasisupermodularity; the equivalence relies on monotonicity across every constraint set. The weak and strict preference clauses have different roles, so replacing either by the other changes the target. These are the distinctions visible in Theorem 4 and its proof.

Formalization scope

Lean represents XXX with Lattice, TTT with PartialOrder, and f:X→T→Rf:X\to T\to\mathbb Rf:X→T→R in curried form. No finiteness, total order, topology, measurability, or maximizer-attainment hypothesis is imposed. The paper's product order for product lattices is Lean's usual componentwise order. The imported Supermodularity.Lattices.InducedSetOrder is exactly the paper's strong set order, including its behavior on empty sets. The definition argmaxOn returns the set of points in SSS whose objective value bounds every value attained in SSS; it may be empty.

Quasisupermodularity is encoded with a reusable set argument but applied to Set.univ in every theorem here, so the property concerns the whole lattice. Single crossing compares strictly ordered choices and strictly ordered parameters and preserves both weak and strict preferences. ArgmaxMonotone compares weakly ordered parameters and all constraint sets under the strong set order. Theorem 4′ encodes a selection on an arbitrary domain D⊆TD\subseteq TD⊆T where maximizers actually exist; it makes no global existence assertion. For Corollary 2, an arbitrary parameter is fixed and its objective is written g:X→Rg:X\to\mathbb Rg:X→R.

These choices rule out easy specializations that would change the theorem: taking XXX to be a chain, restricting quasisupermodularity to a selected feasible set, demanding nonempty argmax sets, or dropping strict preference clauses. The reusable development consists of the maximizer-set definition, the two ordinal predicates, and their relation to the published strong set order. Contributions proving the goal, its three proof-direction milestones, the corollaries, and the selection theorem all fit this scope.

Selected references

  • Paul Milgrom and Chris Shannon, Monotone Comparative Statics, Econometrica 62(1), 1994, 157–180. DOI: 10.2307/2951479.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryCombinatoricsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Potential Games 1: A Game Is an Exact Potential Game If and Only If I(γ, u) = 0 on Every Simple Closed Path of Length 4Research Paper

Why this question matters

In a strategic game, each player evaluates a change in their own strategy using that player's own payoff. These incentives need not point in a common direction. A potential game is a case in which one real-valued function records every player's payoff change under a unilateral deviation. This common function lets questions about incentives be expressed as questions about one object on the space of strategy profiles. Monderer and Shapley's 1996 paper introduced several kinds of potential and gave a local characterization of the exact kind. The characterization is the subject of this mission.

The local test matters because the defining condition appears to require finding an unknown potential on the entire profile space. Theorem 2.8 says that a condition on four-step cycles already determines whether such a function exists, even when individual strategy sets are infinite. The paper compares this characterization with the familiar idea that a conservative field has zero integral around closed curves; here the “integral” is a finite sum of payoff changes along unilateral deviations (Monderer and Shapley, pp. 130–131).

Games, deviations, and path sums

Let NNN be a finite set of players. For each player i∈Ni\in Ni∈N, let YiY^iYi be a strategy set, and let Y=∏i∈NYiY=\prod_{i\in N}Y^iY=∏i∈N​Yi be the set of pure strategy profiles. The payoff of player iii is a function ui:Y→Ru^i:Y\to\mathbb Rui:Y→R. If y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y, the notation (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) means the profile obtained by replacing only player iii's strategy with x∈Yix\in Y^ix∈Yi. The strategy sets themselves are not required to be finite in this section of the paper (p. 127).

An exact potential is a function P:Y→RP:Y\to\mathbb RP:Y→R such that, for every iii, every opponents' profile y−iy^{-i}y−i, and every x,z∈Yix,z\in Y^ix,z∈Yi,

ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z).u^i(y^{-i},x)-u^i(y^{-i},z) =P(y^{-i},x)-P(y^{-i},z).ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z).

A game admitting such a function is an exact potential game. The paper uses the shorter term “potential game” for this class when the adjective is clear (pp. 127–128, equation (2.2)).

A path γ=(y0,…,yL)\gamma=(y_0,\ldots,y_L)γ=(y0​,…,yL​) is a sequence in which each step changes exactly one player's strategy to a different value. Write iki_kik​ for the unique player who moves from yk−1y_{k-1}yk−1​ to yky_kyk​. The path sum of the payoff vector uuu is

I(γ,u)=∑k=1L(uik(yk)−uik(yk−1)).I(\gamma,u)=\sum_{k=1}^{L} \bigl(u^{i_k}(y_k)-u^{i_k}(y_{k-1})\bigr).I(γ,u)=k=1∑L​(uik​(yk​)−uik​(yk−1​)).

The path is closed when y0=yLy_0=y_Ly0​=yL​. It is simple closed when, in addition, the vertices y0,…,yL−1y_0,\ldots,y_{L-1}y0​,…,yL−1​ are pairwise distinct. Its length is LLL, the number of steps and the number of vertices before the final return. These definitions follow pp. 128, 130–131.

Formalization targets

Theorem 2.8: four equivalent conditions

For a game with finitely many players, Theorem 2.8 asserts the equivalence of all four claims:

Γ has an exact potential;I(γ,u)=0for every finite closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every finite simple closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every simple closed path γ of length 4.\begin{aligned} &\Gamma\text{ has an exact potential};\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every finite closed path }\gamma;\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every finite simple closed path }\gamma;\\ &I(\gamma,u)=0\quad\text{for every simple closed path }\gamma\text{ of length }4. \end{aligned}​Γ has an exact potential;I(γ,u)=0for every finite closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every finite simple closed path γ;I(γ,u)=0for every simple closed path γ of length 4.​

The last condition is a local criterion, but the goal keeps the full four-way equivalence of the published theorem, p. 131. The milestone list follows five claims in its Appendix A proof: vanishing path sums from a potential, path independence, construction of a potential from vanishing closed-path sums, the local exchange of two different players' moves, and the reduction from all closed paths to length-four simple cycles (pp. 138–139).

Related results in the same development

Corollary 2.9 expresses the length-four test directly as a zero sum of payoff changes around four corners obtained by varying two players' strategies. Lemma 2.7 says that two exact potentials for the same game differ by one additive constant. Both are included as supporting statements from the same definition layer, although they are not milestones in the attack path for Theorem 2.8 (pp. 130–131).

What the result provides

Theorem 2.8 turns existence of a global function into a test on local cycles. Corollary 2.9 makes those cycles visible in payoff tables: fixing all but two players, the alternating sum around each two-player rectangle must vanish. For finite strategy sets this gives a direct finite collection of conditions; for infinite strategy sets the theorem remains a mathematical characterization without claiming a finite algorithm (Monderer and Shapley, p. 131).

The original paper proves these statements. The formalization work is to represent games, paths, path sums, and the four-way equivalence in Lean, then supply machine-checked proofs. The present mission contains compiled statements with open proofs. Its definition modules are also reusable for the paper's other results about potentials, improvement paths, and congestion games.

Where the proof is difficult

The challenging direction is that zero sums on simple length-four cycles force zero sums on every closed path. A closed path may repeat vertices and may involve more than two players. A direct appeal to the local condition does not cover such a path. The Appendix A argument uses changes to a path's sequence of deviators, and its informal treatment of adjacent moves by the same player leaves a boundary case: the two moves can cancel, so replacing them by one move would create a null step, which the definition of a path excludes. A formal proof must account for this case while preserving the paper's exact statement (pp. 138–139).

Formalization scope

Lean represents the finite player set by a finite type ι\iotaι and a profile by a dependent function y:∏i:ιYiy:\prod_{i:\iota}Y^iy:∏i:ι​Yi. Strategy sets YiY^iYi remain arbitrary types. The operation (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) is a one-coordinate update. A finite path stores L+1L+1L+1 vertices and its deviator at each of the LLL steps; the step condition determines that deviator uniquely. Closed paths of length zero are allowed and have sum zero. The paper prints nnn, the number of players, as the upper limit of the path sum on p. 130, although its summands are indexed by path steps. The Lean definition sums over all LLL steps, as the surrounding definition and later equations require.

The four-cycle hypothesis quantifies only over simple closed paths of exactly four genuine steps. It is not replaced by all four-step walks or by cycles with null or simultaneous deviations. The goal retains all four clauses rather than only its shortest equivalence. Corollary 2.9 explicitly requires the two varying players to be distinct; this is implicit in the paper's four-corner construction. No finite-strategy assumption is imposed on Theorem 2.8, Corollary 2.9, or Lemma 2.7.

The development needs ordinary finite sums, dependent functions, coordinate updates, and finite-indexed paths. Its path and potential definitions are intended as an interface for later work. Contributions proving any of the five source-backed milestones, the goal, or the two related statements are within scope.

Selected references

  • Dov Monderer and Lloyd S. Shapley, Potential Games, Games and Economic Behavior 14 (1996), 124–143. DOI: 10.1006/game.1996.0044.
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Large Deviations of Sums of Independent Random Variables 1: The Fuk–Nagaev Inequality P(S_n ≥ x) ≤ ΣP(X_i > y_i) + P_4, P_5 or P_6 for Truncated Moments of Order t ≥ 2Research Paper

Motivation

How likely is a sum of independent random variables to exceed a large level xxx? If the summands have exponential moments, the classical answer is a Bernstein- or Hoeffding-type bound, exponentially small in xxx. Many quantities met in statistics, queueing, insurance mathematics and the analysis of algorithms have only finitely many moments, and then no exponential bound can hold: the tail of the sum is at least as heavy as the tail of the largest summand. The Fuk–Nagaev inequality is the standard answer for this situation. It bounds P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) by a polynomial term, which accounts for one summand being large, plus a Gaussian term, which accounts for the bulk of the sum.

The inequality was proved by D. Kh. Fuk and S. V. Nagaev in 1971 (Fuk–Nagaev 1971). S. V. Nagaev's survey of 1979 in the Annals of Probability states it as Theorem 1.3 and gives a complete proof, together with its corollaries (1.23) and (1.24). The form (1.24), P(Sn≥x)≤ct(1)At+x−t+exp⁡{−ct(2)x2/Bn2}P(S_n\ge x)\le c_t^{(1)}A_t^+x^{-t}+\exp\{-c_t^{(2)}x^2/B_n^2\}P(Sn​≥x)≤ct(1)​At+​x−t+exp{−ct(2)​x2/Bn2​}, is the version quoted in the later literature on heavy-tailed sums, empirical processes and high-dimensional statistics, where it is the usual replacement for Bernstein's inequality under polynomial moments.

Setting

Let X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ be independent real random variables on a probability space, with distribution functions Fi(u)=P(Xi<u)F_i(u)=P(X_i<u)Fi​(u)=P(Xi​<u), and let Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n=X_1+\dots+X_nSn​=X1​+⋯+Xn​. Fix a level x>0x>0x>0, truncation levels Y={y1,…,yn}Y=\{y_1,\dots,y_n\}Y={y1​,…,yn​} (positive numbers), and a number y≥max⁡iyiy\ge\max_iy_iy≥maxi​yi​.

The truncated summands are X~i=Xi\tilde X_i=X_iX~i​=Xi​ if Xi≤yiX_i\le y_iXi​≤yi​ and X~i=0\tilde X_i=0X~i​=0 if Xi>yiX_i>y_iXi​>yi​, with sum S~n=∑iX~i\tilde S_n=\sum_i\tilde X_iS~n​=∑i​X~i​. The paper writes μ(⋅,⋅)\mu(\cdot,\cdot)μ(⋅,⋅), B2(⋅,⋅)B^2(\cdot,\cdot)B2(⋅,⋅) and A(t;⋅,⋅)A(t;\cdot,\cdot)A(t;⋅,⋅) for sums of truncated means, second moments and absolute moments of order ttt, the arguments being the truncation levels. The three used here are

μ(−∞,Y)=∑i=1n∫u≤yiu dFi(u),B2(−∞,Y)=∑i=1n∫u≤yiu2 dFi(u),A(t;0,Y)=∑i=1n∫0≤u≤yi∣u∣t dFi(u).\mu(-\infty,Y)=\sum_{i=1}^n\int_{u\le y_i}u\,dF_i(u),\qquad B^2(-\infty,Y)=\sum_{i=1}^n\int_{u\le y_i}u^2\,dF_i(u),\qquad A(t;0,Y)=\sum_{i=1}^n\int_{0\le u\le y_i}|u|^t\,dF_i(u).μ(−∞,Y)=i=1∑n​∫u≤yi​​udFi​(u),B2(−∞,Y)=i=1∑n​∫u≤yi​​u2dFi​(u),A(t;0,Y)=i=1∑n​∫0≤u≤yi​​∣u∣tdFi​(u).

For t≥2t\ge2t≥2, 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 and β=1−α\beta=1-\alphaβ=1−α, write L=log⁡(βxyt−1/A(t;0,Y)+1)L=\log\big(\beta xy^{t-1}/A(t;0,Y)+1\big)L=log(βxyt−1/A(t;0,Y)+1) and define

P4=exp⁡{βxy−((1−α2)xy−μ(−∞,Y)y)L},P5=exp⁡{(β−tα2)xy−(βxy−μ(−∞,Y)y)L},P_4=\exp\Big\{\beta\frac xy-\Big(\big(1-\tfrac\alpha2\big)\frac xy-\frac{\mu(-\infty,Y)}y\Big)L\Big\},\qquad P_5=\exp\Big\{\Big(\beta-\frac{t\alpha}2\Big)\frac xy-\Big(\beta\frac xy-\frac{\mu(-\infty,Y)}y\Big)L\Big\},P4​=exp{βyx​−((1−2α​)yx​−yμ(−∞,Y)​)L},P5​=exp{(β−2tα​)yx​−(βyx​−yμ(−∞,Y)​)L}, P6=exp⁡{−αx (αx/2−μ(−∞,Y))etB2(−∞,Y)}.P_6=\exp\Big\{-\frac{\alpha x\,(\alpha x/2-\mu(-\infty,Y))}{e^tB^2(-\infty,Y)}\Big\}.P6​=exp{−etB2(−∞,Y)αx(αx/2−μ(−∞,Y))​}.

Finally At+=∑i∫u≥0ut dFi(u)A_t^+=\sum_i\int_{u\ge0}u^t\,dF_i(u)At+​=∑i​∫u≥0​utdFi​(u) and Bn2=∑iVar⁡XiB_n^2=\sum_i\operatorname{Var}X_iBn2​=∑i​VarXi​.

In Lean these are the definitions S, Xt, St, muY, B2Y, AY, Atplus, Bn2, P4, P5, P6 of NagaevLD.FukNagaev.Setting.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.3 (p. 749)

Suppose t≥2t\ge2t≥2, 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, β=1−α\beta=1-\alphaβ=1−α and B2(−∞,Y)<∞B^2(-\infty,Y)<\inftyB2(−∞,Y)<∞. Write (1.4) for max⁡[t,L]≥αxy/(etB2(−∞,Y))\max[t,L]\ge\alpha xy/(e^tB^2(-\infty,Y))max[t,L]≥αxy/(etB2(−∞,Y)) and (1.6) for max⁡[t,L]<αxy/(etB2(−∞,Y))\max[t,L]<\alpha xy/(e^tB^2(-\infty,Y))max[t,L]<αxy/(etB2(−∞,Y)). Then

(1.4)  ⟹  P(Sn≥x)≤∑i=1nP(Xi>yi)+P6,(1.6)  ⟹  P(Sn≥x)<∑i=1nP(Xi>yi)+P4,\text{(1.4)}\implies P(S_n\ge x)\le\sum_{i=1}^nP(X_i>y_i)+P_6,\qquad \text{(1.6)}\implies P(S_n\ge x)<\sum_{i=1}^nP(X_i>y_i)+P_4,(1.4)⟹P(Sn​≥x)≤i=1∑n​P(Xi​>yi​)+P6​,(1.6)⟹P(Sn​≥x)<i=1∑n​P(Xi​>yi​)+P4​,

and if (1.6) holds together with β≥tα/2\beta\ge t\alpha/2β≥tα/2 or βx≥μ(−∞,Y)\beta x\ge\mu(-\infty,Y)βx≥μ(−∞,Y), then P(Sn≥x)<∑iP(Xi>yi)+P5P(S_n\ge x)<\sum_iP(X_i>y_i)+P_5P(Sn​≥x)<∑i​P(Xi​>yi​)+P5​. The page prints the last case as "if, instead of (1.6), …"; the proof on p. 752 proves it "if, in addition", and this is what is stated.

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof: the truncation inequality (1.8); the exponential Chebyshev bound with factorisation (1.9); Lemma 1.4, the cumulant bounds (1.10) and (1.11) for a variable bounded above, with the intermediate estimates (1.13) and (1.16); the bounds (1.17) and (1.18) for P(S~n≥x)P(\tilde S_n\ge x)P(S~n​≥x); the equivalence of (1.4) with h1≤max⁡[t/y,h2]h_1\le\max[t/y,h_2]h1​≤max[t/y,h2​]; (1.19), P(S~n≥x)≤P6P(\tilde S_n\ge x)\le P_6P(S~n​≥x)≤P6​ under (1.4); P(S~n≥x)<P4P(\tilde S_n\ge x)<P_4P(S~n​≥x)<P4​ under (1.6); and (1.20), P(S~n≥x)<P5P(\tilde S_n\ge x)<P_5P(S~n​≥x)<P5​.

Corollaries

Corollary 1.7 (1.23): for EXi=0\mathbb EX_i=0EXi​=0, β=t/(t+2)\beta=t/(t+2)β=t/(t+2), α=1−β\alpha=1-\betaα=1−β,

P(Sn≥x)≤∑i=1nP(Xi>yi)+exp⁡{−α2x22etB2(−∞,Y)}+(A(t;0,Y)βxyt−1)βx/y.P(S_n\ge x)\le\sum_{i=1}^nP(X_i>y_i)+\exp\Big\{-\frac{\alpha^2x^2}{2e^tB^2(-\infty,Y)}\Big\}+\Big(\frac{A(t;0,Y)}{\beta xy^{t-1}}\Big)^{\beta x/y}.P(Sn​≥x)≤i=1∑n​P(Xi​>yi​)+exp{−2etB2(−∞,Y)α2x2​}+(βxyt−1A(t;0,Y)​)βx/y.

Corollary 1.8 (1.24): for EXi=0\mathbb EX_i=0EXi​=0, At+<∞A_t^+<\inftyAt+​<∞, t≥2t\ge2t≥2,

P(Sn≥x)≤(1+2t)tAt+x−t+exp⁡{−2e−tx2(t+2)2Bn2}.P(S_n\ge x)\le\Big(1+\frac2t\Big)^tA_t^+x^{-t}+\exp\Big\{-\frac{2e^{-t}x^2}{(t+2)^2B_n^2}\Big\}.P(Sn​≥x)≤(1+t2​)tAt+​x−t+exp{−(t+2)2Bn2​2e−tx2​}.

Significance

Theorem 1.3 makes no assumption on the summands beyond independence and finiteness of the truncated moments; no centring, no identical distribution, no bound on the summands. The free parameters yiy_iyi​, yyy, α\alphaα let a user trade the polynomial term against the Gaussian term. Corollary 1.8 is the form used for moment bounds of sums (ttt-th moment inequalities of Rosenthal type follow by integrating it in xxx), for maximal inequalities, and for concentration of empirical processes indexed by heavy-tailed classes.

The result has been proved since 1971 and is not open. As far as a search of the Prove2Me catalog and of Mathlib shows, it has not been formalized: Mathlib has the exponential Chebyshev bound and the moment generating function of independent sums, but no tail inequality for sums of heavy-tailed summands. This mission produces a checked proof of the theorem in the paper's exact form, of the cumulant bound of Lemma 1.4, and of both corollaries with their explicit constants (1+2/t)t(1+2/t)^t(1+2/t)t and 2(t+2)−2e−t2(t+2)^{-2}e^{-t}2(t+2)−2e−t.

Difficulty

The obvious argument, Chernoff's bound applied to SnS_nSn​, fails at once: without exponential moments EehSn\mathbb Ee^{hS_n}EehSn​ is infinite for every h>0h>0h>0. Truncating the summands repairs this, but the bound then depends on the choice of the exponent hhh, and no single choice works for all parameters. The proof splits into cases according to the relative position of three numbers, t/yt/yt/y and the minimisers h1h_1h1​, h2h_2h2​ of two convex functions, and every case needs its own estimate of the cumulant of a variable bounded above. The bookkeeping of strict and non-strict inequalities across these cases is exactly what (1.7) and (1.7a) assert, and the printed text has a misprint at that point.

The corollaries need a separate step: Corollary 1.7 requires μ(−∞,Y)≤0\mu(-\infty,Y)\le0μ(−∞,Y)≤0, which follows from centring only because truncation removes positive mass, and Corollary 1.8 requires combining the Chebyshev bound for P(Xi>βx)P(X_i>\beta x)P(Xi​>βx) with the truncated moment A(t;0,Y)A(t;0,Y)A(t;0,Y) so that the two polynomial terms add to exactly At+/(βx)tA_t^+/(\beta x)^tAt+​/(βx)t.

Formalization scope

  • The summands are X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ on a probability space, measurable and mutually independent (iIndepFun); index iii stands for the paper's i+1i+1i+1. x>0x>0x>0, yi>0y_i>0yi​>0, y≥yiy\ge y_iy≥yi​ and y>0y>0y>0 are hypotheses (y>0y>0y>0 follows from the others when n≥1n\ge1n≥1).
  • Every integral ∫Eφ(u) dFi(u)\int_E\varphi(u)\,dF_i(u)∫E​φ(u)dFi​(u) is the expectation of φ(Xi)\varphi(X_i)φ(Xi​) over the event {Xi∈E}\{X_i\in E\}{Xi​∈E}, with the endpoints of EEE copied from the page. Powers with exponent ttt are real powers; A(t;0,Y)A(t;0,Y)A(t;0,Y) uses ∣u∣t|u|^t∣u∣t.
  • Added hypotheses. Finiteness of B2(−∞,Y)B^2(-\infty,Y)B2(−∞,Y) is assumed as integrability of Xi2X_i^2Xi2​ on {Xi≤yi}\{X_i\le y_i\}{Xi​≤yi​} for each iii; Lemma 1.4 assumes X∈L2X\in L^2X∈L2 (its β=EX2\beta=\mathbb EX^2β=EX2 is a number); Corollary 1.8 assumes each Xi∈L2X_i\in L^2Xi​∈L2, since Mathlib's variance is 000 outside L2L^2L2. On the page an infinite second moment makes each bound trivial; in Lean it would be replaced by 000 and the statements would become false.
  • Degenerate values. On the page A(t;0,Y)=0A(t;0,Y)=0A(t;0,Y)=0 makes L=+∞L=+\inftyL=+∞, so (1.4) holds. Lean's division by 000 would make L=0L=0L=0; condition (1.4) is therefore the definition cond_1_4, which includes the case A(t;0,Y)=0A(t;0,Y)=0A(t;0,Y)=0, and (1.6) is cond_1_6, which requires A(t;0,Y)>0A(t;0,Y)>0A(t;0,Y)>0. For A≥0A\ge0A≥0 the two are exact complements. If B2(−∞,Y)=0B^2(-\infty,Y)=0B2(−∞,Y)=0, P6P_6P6​ and the exponential term of (1.23) take the page's limiting value 000, and so does the exponential term of (1.24) when Bn2=0B_n^2=0Bn2​=0; Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 would otherwise make them 111.
  • Ruled out. Stating the goal for the truncated sum S~n\tilde S_nS~n​ instead of SnS_nSn​, or only the moment-generating-function bound, would replace the theorem by a step of its proof; the goal is about P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x), with the strict inequalities of (1.7) and (1.7a) kept strict.
  • Lemma 1.4 uses β\betaβ for EX2\mathbb EX^2EX2; it is unrelated to β=1−α\beta=1-\alphaβ=1−α of Theorem 1.3.
  • Reusable beyond this mission: Lemma 1.4 (a cumulant bound for variables bounded above) and the truncation inequality (1.8). Contributions welcome on any milestone, and on the corollaries independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • S. V. Nagaev, Large deviations of sums of independent random variables, Ann. Probab. 7(5):745–789, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176994938
  • D. Kh. Fuk and S. V. Nagaev, Probability inequalities for sums of independent random variables, Theory Probab. Appl. 16(4):643–660, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1137/1116071
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Control TheoryOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities 2: Under Last Buffer First Serve the Number of Parts Stays Bounded, Eventually by (λc(ε)+γ)/(1−ρ−λε)Research Paper

Motivation

Semiconductor wafer fabrication lines are reentrant: a wafer returns to the same photolithography or etching station many times along its route, so the parts competing for a machine are at different stages of completion. In such a line, a local dispatching rule decides at every machine which waiting part goes next, and the question is whether a given rule keeps the line stable whenever there is enough capacity. Lu and Kumar (IEEE TAC 36(12), 1991) showed that the answer depends on the rule. Some natural buffer priority rules make the line unstable even when every machine has spare capacity (their Example 1; see also Kumar and Seidman 1990). Two rules are proved stable for every route: first buffer first serve (FBFS) and last buffer first serve (LBFS).

LBFS serves at each machine the waiting part that is closest to completion. It is the "pull" rule of the two, and the one closer to practice: it minimizes work in progress in many settings and coincides with earliest due date when parts arrive in due-date order. This mission formalizes the paper's LBFS results, §V. The sibling mission (FBFS, §IV) treats the other policy on the same model.

Timeline:

  • 1990: Kumar and Seidman exhibit instability of clearing policies on a reentrant line with spare capacity.
  • 1991: Lu and Kumar prove stability of FBFS (Theorem 1) and of LBFS (Theorems 2–3) under deterministic bursty arrivals. They also prove it for least slack and earliest due date (Theorem 4, Corollary 1), and show that a buffer priority policy can be unstable (Example 1).
  • 1996: Dai and Weiss prove stability of the fluid models of FBFS and LBFS on reentrant lines (Math. Oper. Res. 21(1)), which by Dai's fluid limit theorem gives positive Harris recurrence for the stochastic versions.

Setting

A nonacyclic flow line has SSS service centers; center σ\sigmaσ has mσ≥1m_\sigma \ge 1mσ​≥1 identical machines, each processing one part at a time. Every part follows the same route through buffers b1,…,blb_1, \dots, b_lb1​,…,bl​: in buffer bib_ibi​ it waits at center σi\sigma_iσi​, then needs τi>0\tau_i > 0τi​>0 units of uninterrupted processing on one machine of that center. A center may serve several buffers.

Parts are released into b1b_1b1​; part π\piπ is released at time α(π)\alpha(\pi)α(π) and exits at time e(π)e(\pi)e(π), when its service at blb_lbl​ ends. Finitely many parts may be present at time 000, in any buffer, some already in service. With u(t)u(t)u(t) the number of releases in [0,t][0,t][0,t], the arrivals are bursty with rate λ\lambdaλ and burst γ\gammaγ if

u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γ(0≤s≤t).(1)u(t)-u(s)\le \lambda(t-s)+\gamma\qquad(0\le s\le t).\tag{1}u(t)−u(s)≤λ(t−s)+γ(0≤s≤t).(1)

The work per machine that one part brings to center σ\sigmaσ is wσ=∑i:σi=στi/mσw_\sigma=\sum_{i:\sigma_i=\sigma}\tau_i/m_\sigmawσ​=∑i:σi​=σ​τi​/mσ​, and the load is ρ=λw‾\rho=\lambda\overline wρ=λw with w‾=max⁡σwσ\overline w=\max_\sigma w_\sigmaw=maxσ​wσ​. The capacity condition is ρ<1\rho<1ρ<1 (3). Also τ‾=max⁡jτj\overline\tau=\max_j\tau_jτ=maxj​τj​, and w(k)w^{(k)}w(k) is the maximum per-machine work brought to a center by a part in bkb_kbk​, counting only buffers bk,…,blb_k,\dots,b_lbk​,…,bl​ (6).

Scheduling is nonidling (a machine idles only if every buffer of its center is empty) and nonpreemptive, and a machine takes the part at the head of a buffer. Under LBFS, a machine takes a part from bib_ibi​ only if every buffer bjb_jbj​ of its center with j>ij>ij>i is empty. The number of parts in the system at time ttt is x(t)x(t)x(t).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3, Stability of LBFS

Under (1) and (3), for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with 1−ρ−λε>01-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon>01−ρ−λε>0,

x(t)≤max⁡{(1+ρ+λε)x(0)+λc(ε)+γ, 2(λc(ε)+γ)1−ρ−λε}(t≥0),x(t)\le\max\Big\{(1+\rho+\lambda\varepsilon)x(0)+\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma,\ \frac{2(\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma)}{1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon}\Big\}\quad(t\ge0),x(t)≤max{(1+ρ+λε)x(0)+λc(ε)+γ, 1−ρ−λε2(λc(ε)+γ)​}(t≥0), lim sup⁡t→∞x(t)≤λc(ε)+γ1−ρ−λε.\limsup_{t\to\infty}x(t)\le\frac{\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma}{1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon}.t→∞limsup​x(t)≤1−ρ−λελc(ε)+γ​.

Here c(ε)c(\varepsilon)c(ε) is the explicit constant of the delay estimate. The paper prints the second bound as λc(ε)+γ/(1−ρ−λε)\lambda c(\varepsilon)+\gamma/(1-\rho-\lambda\varepsilon)λc(ε)+γ/(1−ρ−λε); its proof establishes the form above, which is the one posed.

Milestones

The delay estimate behind the goal, in the order of its proof:

  • the base case (8) for the last buffer;
  • the one-step comparison (11) with the part just ahead;
  • the induction claim (10) for every truncated line B(k)={bk,…,bl}B^{(k)}=\{b_k,\dots,b_l\}B(k)={bk​,…,bl​}: a part in B(k)B^{(k)}B(k) with xxx parts ahead exits within c(k)(ε)+(w(k)+ε)xc^{(k)}(\varepsilon)+(w^{(k)}+\varepsilon)xc(k)(ε)+(w(k)+ε)x;
  • Theorem 2, the contractive estimate
e(π)−α(π)≤c(ε)+(w‾+ε)x(ε>0),e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le c(\varepsilon)+(\overline w+\varepsilon)x\qquad(\varepsilon>0),e(π)−α(π)≤c(ε)+(w+ε)x(ε>0),

for a part that finds xxx parts in the system on release.

Then the Pipeline Property e(π)−α(π)≤w‾x+o(x)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)\le\overline wx+o(x)e(π)−α(π)≤wx+o(x), order preservation (parts exit in the order they enter), and the recursion (14) for the number in system along successive exit times. A further item states that LBFS is stable in the sense of §II: every delay e(π)−α(π)e(\pi)-\alpha(\pi)e(π)−α(π) is bounded.

Significance

Theorem 2 says the delay of a part under LBFS grows with the number of parts ahead at rate w‾+ε\overline w+\varepsilonw+ε: the line behaves like a pipeline whose speed is set by its bottleneck center, although parts revisit centers. Theorem 3 converts this into a bound on work in progress that holds for all time, with an asymptotic bound that does not depend on the initial state. Together they give stability of LBFS for every route and every burst size, with explicit constants. This is a deterministic, sample-path result: no distributional assumption on arrivals is needed. Its constants are explicit, so they can be evaluated for a given line.

The results are proved in the paper; none is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked model of a multi-server reentrant line with nonidling, nonpreemptive, head-of-buffer buffer-priority dispatch, together with Theorems 2 and 3 on it. The model carries over to the other policies of the paper (FBFS, least slack, earliest due date).

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails because under LBFS parts released later do interfere with a part π\piπ: they occupy machines nonpreemptively at the low-priority buffers π\piπ must still pass. So the delay of π\piπ cannot be bounded by the work ahead of it alone. The paper's estimate is an induction from the end of the line backwards over the truncated systems B(k)B^{(k)}B(k), nested with an induction on the position of π\piπ in its buffer. The constant c(k)(ε)c^{(k)}(\varepsilon)c(k)(ε) is recomputed at every level from c(k+1)(ε/2)c^{(k+1)}(\varepsilon/2)c(k+1)(ε/2), so ε\varepsilonε is halved at each level. A formal proof must also handle what the paper treats informally:

  • the order in which parts leave buffers when several arrive at the same instant;
  • parts already in service at time 000;
  • an empty system between busy periods.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace ReentrantScheduling.LBFS.

  • Buffers are 0-based in Lean: the paper's bib_ibi​ is index i−1i-1i−1.
  • A run lists its parts in a fixed line order: parts present at time 000 first (deeper buffers first, then earlier service start), then released parts by release time. This order breaks ties between simultaneous arrivals, and "parts ahead of π\piπ" means the parts in the system that precede π\piπ in it.
  • Service start times are in WithTop ℝ, with ⊤ meaning never, so a run need not serve every part, and the theorems assert that parts are served. A formalization with real-valued start times would assume every part is served, which is half of what stability asserts.
  • All counts (capacity, nonidling, (1), x(t)x(t)x(t)) are Set.encard, never Set.ncard, which would count an infinite set as 000 and make the capacity rule vacuous.
  • The constants c(k)(ε)c^{(k)}(\varepsilon)c(k)(ε) of (8)–(9) are explicit definitions that depend only on the line and ε\varepsilonε. A constant chosen after the run would let it depend on the arrivals or the initial state.
  • Theorem 3's bounds are inequalities in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; the lim sup is taken there, so it cannot be a junk value of an unbounded real function.
  • The standing assumptions of §II are hypotheses or part of the run predicate: nonidling, nonpreemptive, head-of-buffer service, mσ≥1m_\sigma\ge1mσ​≥1, l≥1l\ge1l≥1. The positivity τi>0\tau_i>0τi​>0 is pinned: the paper leaves it implicit.
  • Every theorem quantifies over all admissible LBFS runs. The empty run and nontrivial runs satisfy the hypotheses.

The model is reusable for other dispatch rules on reentrant lines. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are lemmas on admissible runs (FIFO within buffers, finiteness of x(t)x(t)x(t)).

Not posed here:

  • Example 1, which is already on the platform as QueueingStability.LuKumar.theorem31;
  • Theorem 4 and Corollary 1 (least slack, earliest due date), whose proof modifications the paper leaves to the reader;
  • Theorem 5 (several flow lines), whose proof is a sketch.

Selected references

  • S. H. Lu and P. R. Kumar, Distributed Scheduling Based on Due Dates and Buffer Priorities, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 36(12), 1406–1416, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.106156
  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 35(3), 289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. G. Dai and G. Weiss, Stability and Instability of Fluid Models for Reentrant Lines, Mathematics of Operations Research 21(1), 115–134, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.21.1.115
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Monte Carlo Bounding Techniques for Determining Solution Quality in Stochastic Programs: The Expected Sample-Average Optimal Value Is a Lower Bound on z* That Improves with Sample SizeResearch Paper

Motivation

Most stochastic programs that arise in practice, such as two-stage stochastic linear programs with recourse, have far too many scenarios to be solved exactly. The standard remedy is sample-average approximation: draw nnn independent observations of the random data, replace the expectation by the sample mean, and solve the resulting deterministic problem. A candidate solution x^\hat xx^ found this way, or by any heuristic, comes with no guarantee. To judge it one needs a bound on its optimality gap Ef(x^,ξ~)−z∗Ef(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-z^*Ef(x^,ξ~​)−z∗, and estimating Ef(x^,ξ~)Ef(\hat x,\tilde\xi)Ef(x^,ξ~​) is routine; what is missing is a lower bound on the unknown optimal value z∗z^*z∗.

Mak, Morton and Wood (Oper. Res. Lett. 24 (1999)) show that the optimal value of the sample-average problem supplies exactly this: its expectation never exceeds z∗z^*z∗, and it can only move closer to z∗z^*z∗ as the sample size grows. The result requires almost no structure of the problem, and it underlies the batch-means confidence intervals on the optimality gap used throughout the stochastic programming literature, including the single- and two-replication procedures of Bayraksan and Morton (2006).

Timeline.

  • 1960: Madansky's wait-and-see bound z∗≥Emin⁡x∈Xf(x,ξ~)z^*\ge E\min_{x\in X}f(x,\tilde\xi)z∗≥Eminx∈X​f(x,ξ~​) (Management Sci. 6), the case n=1n=1n=1 of the result.
  • 1998: Norkin, Pflug and Ruszczyński use stochastic lower bounds of this kind inside a branch-and-bound method (Math. Programming 83); the paper notes that they verified the monotonicity independently.
  • 1999: Mak, Morton and Wood prove Ezn∗≤z∗Ez_n^*\le z^*Ezn∗​≤z∗ (Theorem 1) for arbitrary XXX and Ezn∗≤Ezn+1∗Ez_n^*\le Ez_{n+1}^*Ezn∗​≤Ezn+1∗​ (Theorem 2), and build confidence intervals on the optimality gap from them.

Setting

Let ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​ be a random vector with distribution μ\muμ on a measurable space Ξ\XiΞ, let X⊆RdX\subseteq\mathbb R^dX⊆Rd be a deterministic feasible set, and let f:Rd×Ξ→Rf:\mathbb R^d\times\Xi\to\mathbb Rf:Rd×Ξ→R. The stochastic program is

SPz∗=min⁡x∈XEf(x,ξ~),x∗∈arg⁡min⁡x∈XEf(x,ξ~).\mathrm{SP}\qquad z^*=\min_{x\in X}Ef(x,\tilde\xi),\qquad x^*\in\arg\min_{x\in X}Ef(x,\tilde\xi).SPz∗=x∈Xmin​Ef(x,ξ~​),x∗∈argx∈Xmin​Ef(x,ξ~​).

Let ξ~1,ξ~2,…\tilde\xi^1,\tilde\xi^2,\dotsξ~​1,ξ~​2,… be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) from the distribution of ξ~\tilde\xiξ~​, defined on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P). The sample-average problem of size n≥1n\ge1n≥1 is

SPnzn∗=min⁡x∈X1n∑i=1nf(x,ξ~i),xn∗∈arg⁡min⁡x∈X1n∑i=1nf(x,ξ~i).\mathrm{SP}_n\qquad z_n^*=\min_{x\in X}\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f(x,\tilde\xi^i),\qquad x_n^*\in\arg\min_{x\in X}\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n f(x,\tilde\xi^i).SPn​zn∗​=x∈Xmin​n1​i=1∑n​f(x,ξ~​i),xn∗​∈argx∈Xmin​n1​i=1∑n​f(x,ξ~​i).

Its optimal value zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ is a random variable. All the zm∗z_m^*zm∗​ are built on the same sequence: zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ uses its first nnn terms and zn+1∗z_{n+1}^*zn+1∗​ its first n+1n+1n+1. Throughout, Ef(x,ξ~)Ef(x,\tilde\xi)Ef(x,ξ~​) is assumed to exist for every x∈Xx\in Xx∈X.

For the proof structure the mission also uses the leave-one-out values

zn,(i)∗=min⁡x∈X1n∑j=1j≠in+1f(x,ξ~j),i=1,…,n+1,z_{n,(i)}^*=\min_{x\in X}\frac1n\sum_{\substack{j=1\\j\ne i}}^{n+1}f(x,\tilde\xi^j),\qquad i=1,\dots,n+1,zn,(i)∗​=x∈Xmin​n1​j=1j=i​∑n+1​f(x,ξ~​j),i=1,…,n+1,

the sample-average optimal values of the n+1n+1n+1 subsamples of size nnn of the first n+1n+1n+1 observations.

Formalization targets

Goal: the lower bound improves with the sample size

Ezn∗ ≤ Ezn+1∗ ≤ z∗(n≥1),Ez_n^*\ \le\ Ez_{n+1}^*\ \le\ z^*\qquad(n\ge1),Ezn∗​ ≤ Ezn+1∗​ ≤ z∗(n≥1),

stated in the Introduction (p. 48) as the paper's main claim, with no assumption on XXX or on f(⋅,ξ~)f(\cdot,\tilde\xi)f(⋅,ξ~​) beyond the existence of the relevant expectations and of optimal solutions.

Milestones

  1. Theorem 1 (p. 49): Ezn∗≤z∗Ez_n^*\le z^*Ezn∗​≤z∗.
  2. Proof of Theorem 2 (p. 50), pathwise: 1n+1∑i=1n+1zn,(i)∗≤zn+1∗\frac1{n+1}\sum_{i=1}^{n+1}z_{n,(i)}^*\le z_{n+1}^*n+11​∑i=1n+1​zn,(i)∗​≤zn+1∗​.
  3. Proof of Theorem 2 (p. 50): Ezn,(i)∗=Ezn∗E z_{n,(i)}^*=Ez_n^*Ezn,(i)∗​=Ezn∗​ for every iii.
  4. Theorem 2 (p. 50): Ezn+1∗≥Ezn∗Ez_{n+1}^*\ge Ez_n^*Ezn+1∗​≥Ezn∗​.

Companion statements

  • The remark after Theorem 1 (p. 49): Emin⁡x∈XF(x,⋅)≤z∗E\min_{x\in X}\mathcal F(x,\cdot)\le z^*Eminx∈X​F(x,⋅)≤z∗ for any unbiased estimator F(x,⋅)\mathcal F(x,\cdot)F(x,⋅) of Ef(x,ξ~)Ef(x,\tilde\xi)Ef(x,ξ~​).
  • The wait-and-see bound (p. 50), z∗≥Emin⁡x∈Xf(x,ξ~)z^*\ge E\min_{x\in X}f(x,\tilde\xi)z∗≥Eminx∈X​f(x,ξ~​).
  • Display (9) (p. 52): for x^∈X\hat x\in Xx^∈X and Gn=1n∑if(x^,ξ~i)−zn∗G_n=\frac1n\sum_i f(\hat x,\tilde\xi^i)-z_n^*Gn​=n1​∑i​f(x^,ξ~​i)−zn∗​, Gn≥0G_n\ge0Gn​≥0 and EGn≥Ef(x^,ξ~)−z∗EG_n\ge Ef(\hat x,\tilde\xi)-z^*EGn​≥Ef(x^,ξ~​)−z∗.

Significance

Theorem 1 turns any sampling-based solver into a source of statistical lower bounds on z∗z^*z∗: averaging independent replications of zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ gives a confidence interval for a lower bound, and display (9) combines it with an upper-bound estimator into an estimator of the optimality gap that is nonnegative by construction. Theorem 2 justifies increasing the sample size: the bias z∗−Ezn∗z^*-Ez_n^*z∗−Ezn∗​ is nonincreasing in nnn. Both results are used, often without proof, in the analysis of sample-average approximation and of the gap-estimation procedures built on it.

The results are proved, in this paper and in textbooks (e.g. Shapiro, Dentcheva and Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming). To our knowledge none of them is machine-checked. On Prove2Me, a special case of Theorem 1 under continuity, compactness and a square-integrable envelope is posed but unproved (SolutionQuality.SRP.display1_negative_bias), and the wait-and-see inequality is proved for finitely many scenarios in an extended-real model (StochasticProg.ValueOfInfo.prop1_ws_le_rp_le_eev). This mission states the general versions, for arbitrary feasible sets and integrable costs, on a measure-theoretic i.i.d. model.

Difficulty

Theorem 1 is short on paper; in a formal setting its difficulty is bookkeeping: minima over arbitrary sets and expectations of possibly non-integrable functions both need explicit hypotheses to mean what the paper means. Theorem 2 is harder. The natural first attempt compares zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ and zn+1∗z_{n+1}^*zn+1∗​ on the same sample path, but no pathwise inequality holds in either direction: one extra observation can raise or lower the sample-average optimum. The monotonicity holds only in expectation, so any argument must use the joint law of the infinite i.i.d. sequence, including the law of its subsequences, and measurability of zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ as a function of the sample path.

Formalization scope

The model is the published definition file SolutionQuality.SRP.Setting: decisions lie in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d), μ\muμ is a probability measure on Ξ\XiΞ, the sample is an i.i.d. sequence ξ : ℕ → Ω → Ξ (the paper's ξ~i\tilde\xi^iξ~​i is ξ (i-1)), and z∗z^*z∗, zn∗z_n^*zn∗​, GnG_nGn​ and the optimality gap are its optValue, saaValue, gapEstimate and optGap. The mission adds skipIndex, the leave-one-out value looValue and the path law pathLaw.

Committed conventions:

  • XXX is an arbitrary set: no convexity, closedness or compactness, and f(⋅,ξ)f(\cdot,\xi)f(⋅,ξ) has no continuity (p. 49: "X need not be convex …").
  • Minima are conditionally complete infima (sInf), and expectations are Bochner integrals. Both take the value 000 on bad inputs, so every statement carries the hypotheses that keep them genuine:
    • integrability of f(x,⋅)f(x,\cdot)f(x,⋅) for x∈Xx\in Xx∈X (the first-moment half of the paper's standing assumption; the second moments are not used and are omitted);
    • attainment of z∗z^*z∗ (the paper's x∗∈arg⁡min⁡x^*\in\arg\minx∗∈argmin);
    • almost-sure attainment of every SPm\mathrm{SP}_mSPm​ (the paper's xm∗∈arg⁡min⁡x_m^*\in\arg\minxm∗​∈argmin), stated for the law of the sample path, or almost-sure boundedness below where that suffices;
    • integrability of zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ and zn+1∗z_{n+1}^*zn+1∗​ ("Ezn∗Ez_n^*Ezn∗​ exists");
    • measurability of zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ as a function of the sample path ("zn∗z_n^*zn∗​ is a random variable"), for Theorem 2 only. It holds, e.g., for countable XXX or for f(⋅,ξ)f(\cdot,\xi)f(⋅,ξ) continuous on XXX; it fails for arbitrary XXX and fff, which is why it is assumed.
  • n≥1n\ge1n≥1 throughout, since the empty sample mean is 000.

These hypotheses are disclosed in each statement and are satisfiable: a sanity instance with XXX a singleton satisfies all of them. A formalization that dropped the integrability of zn∗z_n^*zn∗​, or that allowed z0∗z_0^*z0∗​, would make the goal false or vacuous, and one that assumed continuity and compactness would restate the special case already on the platform; neither is in scope.

A complete development needs: the expectation of a sample mean under an i.i.d. law; the identification of the law of fun j => ξ (skipIndex i j) · with Measure.infinitePi (fun _ => μ) (Mathlib's iIndepFun_iff_map_fun_eq_infinitePi_map); and the averaging identity behind the leave-one-out decomposition. The reindexing lemma for i.i.d. sequences is reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, and alternative arguments for Theorem 2, are welcome.

Selected references

  • W.-K. Mak, D. P. Morton, R. K. Wood, Monte Carlo bounding techniques for determining solution quality in stochastic programs, Operations Research Letters 24 (1999) 47–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6377(98)00054-6
  • A. Madansky, Inequalities for stochastic linear programming problems, Management Science 6 (1960) 197–204. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.6.2.197
  • V. I. Norkin, G. Ch. Pflug, A. Ruszczyński, A branch and bound method for stochastic global optimization, Mathematical Programming 83 (1998) 425–450. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02680569
  • G. Bayraksan, D. P. Morton, Assessing solution quality in stochastic programs, Mathematical Programming 108 (2006) 495–514. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-006-0720-x
  • A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva, A. Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory, SIAM, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718751
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation 3: The Partition Job Shop on Two Machines Has a Schedule of Finish Time 5T, Preemptive or Not, Iff a Partition ExistsResearch Paper

Motivation

A job shop is the basic model of a factory floor in which every job follows its own route through the machines. Minimizing the time at which the last job is finished (the finish time, or makespan) is one of the central problems of deterministic scheduling theory, and the question of which special cases admit efficient algorithms has organized much of the field since the 1950s.

For two machines the picture is sharp. Jackson (1956) showed that a two-machine job shop in which every job has at most two operations is solved by a simple rule extending Johnson's flow-shop algorithm (Jackson, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3, 1956; Conway, Maxwell and Miller, Theory of Scheduling, 1967, p. 105). Once a single job may have three operations, the non-preemptive problem becomes NP-complete: Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Brucker showed this for n−1n-1n−1 jobs with one nonzero task each and one job with three (Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 1977; a 1975 Mathematisch Centrum report is the paper's reference [1]). Gonzalez and Sahni (Operations Research 26(1), 1978) extended this boundary to preemptive schedules, in which a task may be interrupted and resumed later: even then the two-machine problem is NP-complete, already when only two jobs have three nonzero tasks. This mission formalizes that reduction, Lemma 5 together with Corollary 2 of their paper.

Timeline:

  • 1956: Jackson, two-machine job shop with at most two operations per job, solved in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn).
  • 1975/1977: Lenstra, Rinnooy Kan and Brucker, the non-preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete with n−1n-1n−1 one-task jobs and one three-task job.
  • 1976: Garey, Johnson and Sethi, the non-preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete even when problem size is measured by the sum of the task lengths (Mathematics of Operations Research 1, 1976).
  • 1978: Gonzalez and Sahni, the preemptive two-machine job shop NP-complete (Lemmas 5 and 6), and the non-preemptive case again by the same reduction (Corollary 2).

Setting

A job shop has processors P1,…,PmP_1, \dots, P_mP1​,…,Pm​ and jobs 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n. Job iii is a finite sequence of tasks; task jjj of job iii must be processed on a given processor kkk for tk,i,j≥0t_{k,i,j} \ge 0tk,i,j​≥0 time units, and for every job, task j≥2j \ge 2j≥2 can begin only after task j−1j-1j−1 has been completed. Schedules start at time 000. A preemptive schedule assigns to every task a finite set of time intervals [s,f)[s, f)[s,f) on its processor, of total length tk,i,jt_{k,i,j}tk,i,j​, such that intervals on the same processor do not overlap and every interval of task jjj begins after task j−1j-1j−1 of the same job is completed. A non-preemptive schedule processes each task in a single interval. If fi(S)f_i(S)fi​(S) is the time at which job iii is completed, the finish time is FT(S)=max⁡ifi(S)\mathrm{FT}(S) = \max_i f_i(S)FT(S)=maxi​fi​(S).

PARTITION: a multiset {a1,…,an}\{a_1, \dots, a_n\}{a1​,…,an​} of nonnegative integers has a partition if some index set uuu satisfies ∑i∈uai=12∑i=1nai\sum_{i \in u} a_i = \tfrac12 \sum_{i=1}^n a_i∑i∈u​ai​=21​∑i=1n​ai​.

From a1,…,ana_1, \dots, a_na1​,…,an​, with T=∑iaiT = \sum_i a_iT=∑i​ai​, the paper builds the two-processor job shop JS\mathrm{JS}JS with n+2n+2n+2 jobs:

  • job i≤ni \le ni≤n: tasks (P2,ai)(P_2, a_i)(P2​,ai​), (P1,ai)(P_1, a_i)(P1​,ai​);
  • job n+1n+1n+1: tasks (P1,T/2)(P_1, T/2)(P1​,T/2), (P2,T/2)(P_2, T/2)(P2​,T/2), (P1,3T)(P_1, 3T)(P1​,3T);
  • job n+2n+2n+2: tasks (P2,3T)(P_2, 3T)(P2​,3T), (P1,T/2)(P_1, T/2)(P1​,T/2), (P2,T/2)(P_2, T/2)(P2​,T/2).

Each processor carries load exactly 5T5T5T. In Lean, the instance is JS a : JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance 2 (n + 2), a schedule is S : Schedule (JS a) (a finite set of pieces), and the predicates are S.IsPreemptive, S.IsNonPreemptive and S.FinishedBy (5 * T a).

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 5 and Corollary 2

For every nnn and every a:Fin n→Na : \mathrm{Fin}\,n \to \mathbb Na:Finn→N,

(∃ S preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)  ⟺  Partition(a)and(∃ S non-preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)  ⟺  Partition(a).\bigl(\exists\, S \text{ preemptive},\ \mathrm{FT}(S) \le 5T\bigr) \iff \mathrm{Partition}(a) \quad\text{and}\quad \bigl(\exists\, S \text{ non-preemptive},\ \mathrm{FT}(S) \le 5T\bigr) \iff \mathrm{Partition}(a).(∃S preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)⟺Partition(a)and(∃S non-preemptive, FT(S)≤5T)⟺Partition(a).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 5(a): a partition yields a non-preemptive schedule of finish time exactly 5T5T5T (the paper's Figure 3).
  2. Observations (i)–(ii) in the proof of Lemma 5(b): in any preemptive schedule with FT≤5T\mathrm{FT} \le 5TFT≤5T, task t2,n+1,2t_{2,n+1,2}t2,n+1,2​ is completed by 2T2T2T and t2,n+2,1t_{2,n+2,1}t2,n+2,1​ by 4T4T4T; no part of t1,n+1,3t_{1,n+1,3}t1,n+1,3​ runs before TTT and no part of t1,n+2,2t_{1,n+2,2}t1,n+2,2​ before 3T3T3T.
  3. Lemma 5(b): without a partition, every preemptive schedule has FT>5T\mathrm{FT} > 5TFT>5T.
  4. Lemma 5: the preemptive equivalence.
  5. Corollary 2: the non-preemptive equivalence.

Significance

The result places the boundary of tractability for two-machine job shops exactly: at most two operations per job is solvable in O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn), while two jobs with three operations make the problem NP-complete, and allowing preemption does not help. The same instance serves both schedule types, because its optimum is 5T5T5T in either model exactly when a partition exists.

The theorem is classical and fully proved on paper; no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Formalizing it requires a precise model of preemptive schedules, which the paper treats informally, and makes explicit an argument (the "no idle time" step of Lemma 5(b)) that the paper compresses into a few sentences. The schedule model built here is shared with the other job-shop missions of this series.

Difficulty

Direction (a) is a concrete schedule and is bookkeeping. Direction (b) is the substance. The tempting argument "each processor has load 5T5T5T, so a schedule of finish time 5T5T5T has no idle time, hence some set of short jobs fills exactly [0,T/2][0, T/2][0,T/2] on P2P_2P2​" is incomplete for preemptive schedules: the short jobs may be split into many pieces spread over the whole horizon, and UUU, the set of short jobs that touch P1P_1P1​ during [0,T][0, T][0,T], is defined by pieces rather than by whole tasks. Making the counting argument rigorous requires measuring idle time on each processor across arbitrary finite unions of intervals and tying the amount of processing done on P1P_1P1​ before TTT to the completed first tasks on P2P_2P2​.

Formalization scope

  • Processing times are real numbers; the PARTITION data are natural numbers cast to R\mathbb RR; TTT is the real sum. Processors are Fin 2 with P1=0P_1 = 0P1​=0, P2=1P_2 = 1P2​=1; jobs and tasks are 0-based, so the paper's job n+1n+1n+1 is job n and job n+2n+2n+2 is job n + 1.
  • Job-shop data reuse the published JobShopLTAS.Core.Instance. Schedules are finite sets of pieces (task, start, end) with positive length, following the paper's footnote 1 (p. 40). A task of length zero has no pieces and is completed when its predecessor is; it never blocks a processor.
  • A non-preemptive schedule is a preemptive one with at most one piece per task. "Finish time ≤τ\le \tau≤τ" is ∀ j, S.jobFinish j ≤ τ; "finish time >5T> 5T>5T" is the existence of a job finishing after 5T5T5T; "finish time 5T5T5T" in Lemma 5(a) is ≤5T\le 5T≤5T together with a job finishing at exactly 5T5T5T.
  • Complexity wording not formalized. "Partition α\alphaα preemptive JOFT" and "Partition α\alphaα nonpreemptive JOFT" (polynomial reducibility), "NP-complete", and Lemma 6 ("JOFT is in NP") are not stated. What is stated is the equivalence that the paper's proofs establish for the instance they construct, with the explicit constant τ=5T\tau = 5Tτ=5T.
  • The PARTITION condition is written 2∑i∈uai=∑iai2\sum_{i\in u} a_i = \sum_i a_i2∑i∈u​ai​=∑i​ai​ in N\mathbb NN, avoiding truncated division.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: the schedule notion requires every task to receive its full processing time, so the empty schedule is feasible only when T=0T = 0T=0 (and then the empty index set is a partition), and the finish-time bound is over every job, so no statement holds by an unattained supremum or a default value.
  • Welcome contributions: a proof of Lemma 5(a) by an explicit piece schedule; infrastructure for measuring busy and idle time of a processor in a finite piece schedule, reusable for Lemma 7 (mission 4) and the preemptive flow-shop missions; the proof of Lemma 5(b).

Selected references

  • T. Gonzalez, S. Sahni, Flowshop and Jobshop Schedules: Complexity and Approximation, Operations Research 26(1), 36–52, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.26.1.36
  • J. K. Lenstra, A. H. G. Rinnooy Kan, P. Brucker, Complexity of Machine Scheduling Problems, Annals of Discrete Mathematics 1, 343–362, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-5060(08)70743-X
  • M. R. Garey, D. S. Johnson, R. Sethi, Complexity of Flow Shop and Job Shop Scheduling, Mathematics of Operations Research 1(2), 117–129, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1.2.117
  • J. R. Jackson, An Extension of Johnson's Results on Job Lot Scheduling, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 3(3), 201–203, 1956. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800030307
  • R. W. Conway, W. L. Maxwell, L. W. Miller, Theory of Scheduling, Addison-Wesley, 1967.
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Multicommodity Max-Flow Min-Cut Theorems and Their Use in Designing Approximation Algorithms V: On a 3-Regular c-Expander the Uniform Max-Flow Is at Most 6𝒮/(c(⌊log n⌋ − 2))Research Paper

Motivation

A multicommodity flow problem asks to route many source–sink demands through one capacitated network at the same time. Its min-cut (sparsest cut) is the smallest ratio, over all cuts, of the capacity crossing the cut to the demand separated by it. Routing is always limited by every cut, so the max-flow never exceeds the min-cut. For a single commodity the two are equal (Ford–Fulkerson); for many commodities they are not, and the size of the gap governs a large family of approximation algorithms for graph partitioning, layout and routing problems.

Leighton and Rao (J. ACM 46 (1999), extended abstract FOCS 1988) proved that for uniform problems, where every pair of nodes demands one unit, the gap is at most O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) (their Theorem 2). This mission formalizes the other half: Section 2.1 of the paper, A bad example, which shows that the log⁡n\log nlogn is necessary. On a 3-regular expander graph the max-flow is a Θ(log⁡n)\Theta(\log n)Θ(logn) factor smaller than the min-cut, so Theorem 2 cannot be improved beyond the constant.

Timeline. Ford and Fulkerson (1956) and Elias–Feinstein–Shannon (1956): single-commodity max-flow equals min-cut. Hu (1963): equality for two commodities. Leighton and Rao (1988, journal 1999): uniform and product problems have an O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) gap, and expanders show it is tight. Klein, Agrawal, Ravi and Rao (1990) and later Linial–London–Rabinovich (Combinatorica 1995) and Aumann–Rabani (1998): an O(log⁡k)O(\log k)O(logk) gap for general demands with kkk commodities, tight by the same expander example.

Setting

Let VVV be a finite set of nnn nodes. A network assigns a capacity C(u,v)≥0C(u,v)\ge0C(u,v)≥0 to every pair, symmetric and zero on the diagonal. For U⊆VU\subseteq VU⊆V with complement Uˉ\bar UUˉ, the cut capacity C(U,Uˉ)C(U,\bar U)C(U,Uˉ) is the total capacity of the pairs with one end in UUU and the other in Uˉ\bar UUˉ.

In the uniform multicommodity flow problem (UMFP) every pair of distinct nodes is a commodity with unit demand. Its max-flow fff is the largest fraction such that fff units of every commodity can be routed simultaneously without exceeding any capacity (concurrent flow). Its min-cut is

S=min⁡∅≠U⊊VC(U,Uˉ)∣U∣ ∣Uˉ∣.\mathcal S=\min_{\emptyset\ne U\subsetneq V}\frac{C(U,\bar U)}{|U|\,|\bar U|}.S=∅=U⊊Vmin​∣U∣∣Uˉ∣C(U,Uˉ)​.

Section 2.1 takes a 3-regular nnn-node graph GGG with unit edge capacities, so that C(U,Uˉ)=∣⟨U,Uˉ⟩∣C(U,\bar U)=|\langle U,\bar U\rangle|C(U,Uˉ)=∣⟨U,Uˉ⟩∣ is the number of edges between UUU and Uˉ\bar UUˉ, and assumes that GGG is a ccc-edge-expander:

∣⟨U,Uˉ⟩∣ ≥ c min⁡{∣U∣,∣Uˉ∣}for all U⊆V,|\langle U,\bar U\rangle|\ \ge\ c\,\min\{|U|,|\bar U|\}\qquad\text{for all }U\subseteq V,∣⟨U,Uˉ⟩∣ ≥ cmin{∣U∣,∣Uˉ∣}for all U⊆V,

for a constant c>0c>0c>0. Families of such graphs exist for a sufficiently small ccc (Margulis 1973; a random 3-regular graph has the property with high probability). Throughout, log⁡\loglog is log⁡2\log_2log2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the gap on an expander

For a 3-regular ccc-edge-expander with unit capacities and n≥8n\ge 8n≥8,

f ≤ 6 Sc (⌊log⁡n⌋−2).f\ \le\ \frac{6\,\mathcal S}{c\,\bigl(\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2\bigr)} .f ≤ c(⌊logn⌋−2)6S​.

This is the final display of §2.1 (pp. 794–795), with the floor that the argument actually supports (see Formalization scope). It leaves the expander family unspecified: it holds for every graph with the two properties.

Milestones, in the order the argument uses them

  1. S≥c/(n−1)\mathcal S\ge c/(n-1)S≥c/(n−1) for the expander (p. 794).
  2. In a 3-regular graph, at most n/2n/2n/2 nodes lie within distance ⌊log⁡n⌋−3\lfloor\log n\rfloor-3⌊logn⌋−3 of any node.
  3. Hence at least half of the source–sink pairs are at distance at least ⌊log⁡n⌋−2\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2⌊logn⌋−2.
  4. A uniform flow of fraction fff uses capacity at least 12(n2)f(⌊log⁡n⌋−2)\tfrac12\binom n2 f(\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2)21​(2n​)f(⌊logn⌋−2), and the total capacity is 3n/23n/23n/2.
  5. Hence f≤3n/((n2)(⌊log⁡n⌋−2))=6/((n−1)(⌊log⁡n⌋−2))f\le 3n/\bigl(\binom n2(\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2)\bigr)=6/\bigl((n-1)(\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2)\bigr)f≤3n/((2n​)(⌊logn⌋−2))=6/((n−1)(⌊logn⌋−2)).

Companions: Theorem 1

Theorem 1 (p. 795) states that for any nnn there is an nnn-node UMFP with f≤O(S/log⁡n)f\le O(\mathcal S/\log n)f≤O(S/logn). It is stated twice: conditionally on a family of 3-regular ccc-expanders (the form §2.1 proves), and unconditionally, with one constant KKK for all n≥2n\ge2n≥2.

Significance

The result shows that the O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn) max-flow min-cut gap of Leighton and Rao's Theorem 2 is tight up to the constant, and, through the same example, that the O(log⁡k)O(\log k)O(logk) bound for general demands is tight. Every approximation algorithm that rounds a multicommodity flow, or its dual, to a cut loses a Θ(log⁡n)\Theta(\log n)Θ(logn) factor in the worst case for this reason; improving on it, as Arora, Rao and Vazirani did (J. ACM 2009) with an O(log⁡n)O(\sqrt{\log n})O(logn​) approximation for sparsest cut, requires a stronger relaxation than the flow LP.

The result is classical and proved. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires the concurrent-flow LP, the uniform sparsest cut, graph distance balls in bounded-degree graphs and a counting argument that converts path lengths into capacity usage; each of these is reusable. The unconditional Theorem 1 additionally needs the existence of bounded-degree expanders on every number of nodes, which is a substantial formalization project in its own right.

Difficulty

The min-cut bound and the ball bound are elementary. The central step is milestone 4: turning "the shortest path of a commodity has at least ℓ\ellℓ edges" into "the commodity uses at least fℓf\ellfℓ units of capacity". In an arc-flow formulation a commodity is a conservation-respecting function on arcs, not a set of paths, so the step needs either a path decomposition of each commodity's flow or a weak-duality argument with unit edge lengths. The obvious attempt, summing the conservation equations directly, gives only the net flow across one cut and loses the factor ℓ\ellℓ.

The unconditional Theorem 1 is hard for a different reason: the paper cites the existence of 3-regular expanders and does not prove it, and the theorem asks for every nnn, including odd nnn, where no 3-regular graph exists.

Formalization scope

Nodes are a Fintype VVV with decidable equality and n=∣V∣n=|V|n=∣V∣. A network is a symmetric nonnegative real capacity function with zero diagonal; the unit-capacity network of a simple graph GGG has C(u,v)=1C(u,v)=1C(u,v)=1 on edges and 000 elsewhere. Commodities are ordered pairs (s,t)(s,t)(s,t), s≠ts\ne ts=t, each with demand 12\tfrac1221​ (the paper's footnote 2), so each unordered pair carries one unit; a flow is a nonnegative arc flow per commodity, and both directions of an edge share its capacity. The max-flow is the supremum of feasible fractions. The min-cut ranges over nonempty proper UUU only: at U=∅U=\emptysetU=∅ or VVV the ratio is 0/00/00/0, which Lean reads as 000 and which would make S=0\mathcal S=0S=0.

Conventions and added hypotheses:

  • The floor. The page writes log⁡n−2\log n-2logn−2. Its argument shows that far pairs have distance at least ⌊log⁡n⌋−2\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2⌊logn⌋−2, which differs from log⁡n−2\log n-2logn−2 for non-integer log⁡n\log nlogn. The goal and milestones state ⌊log⁡n⌋−2\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2⌊logn⌋−2 (Nat.log 2 n), a different constant in the same Θ(log⁡n)\Theta(\log n)Θ(logn).
  • n≥8n\ge 8n≥8 makes ⌊log⁡n⌋−2≥1\lfloor\log n\rfloor-2\ge1⌊logn⌋−2≥1, so the bound divides by a positive number.
  • Graph distance is the extended distance, ∞\infty∞ between components, never Lean's junk value 000.
  • Regularity is SimpleGraph.IsRegularOfDegree 3.
  • Theorem 1 requires the network to be connected (the paper's standing assumption, p. 789); a disconnected network has f=S=0f=\mathcal S=0f=S=0 and would make the statement empty. Its constant is quantified before nnn.
  • Polynomial-time claims are not formalized.

The hypotheses of the goal are satisfiable: the 3-cube Q3Q_3Q3​ (n=8n=8n=8) is 3-regular and a 111-edge-expander. Contributions welcome: the arc-flow path-length lemma, the ball bound for bounded-degree graphs, and an existence theorem for 3-regular expanders.

Selected references

  • T. Leighton and S. Rao, Multicommodity max-flow min-cut theorems and their use in designing approximation algorithms, J. ACM 46(6):787–832, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1145/331524.331526
  • G. A. Margulis, Explicit constructions of concentrators, Problems of Information Transmission 9(4):325–332, 1973.
  • N. Linial, E. London and Y. Rabinovich, The geometry of graphs and some of its algorithmic applications, Combinatorica 15(2):215–245, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01200757
  • S. Arora, S. Rao and U. Vazirani, Expander flows, geometric embeddings and graph partitioning, J. ACM 56(2):5, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1502793.1502794
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Numerical AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Globally Convergent Inexact Newton Methods II: Trust Region Limit Points Are Stationary Points of ‖F‖, and Near a Zero Where F′ Is Invertible the Full Newton Step Is Eventually TakenResearch Paper

Motivation

Solving a system of nonlinear equations F(x)=0F(x)=0F(x)=0, with F:Rn→RnF:\mathbf R^n\to\mathbf R^nF:Rn→Rn continuously differentiable, is a basic task in numerical analysis and optimization: it is the inner step of interior-point and sequential quadratic programming methods, of implicit time-stepping for differential equations, and of equilibrium computations in operations research. Newton's method converges fast near a solution at which the derivative F′F'F′ is invertible, but from a poor starting point it may fail. Trust region methods are a standard globalization: each step minimizes the norm of the local linear model F(xk)+F′(xk)sF(x_k)+F'(x_k)sF(xk​)+F′(xk​)s over a ball ∥s∥≤δk\|s\|\le\delta_k∥s∥≤δk​, and the radius δk\delta_kδk​ is shrunk or enlarged according to how well the model predicted the actual decrease of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥ (Moré and Sorensen 1983; Dennis and Schnabel 1983, §6.4).

Eisenstat and Walker (1994) developed a general global convergence theory for inexact Newton methods, in which steps only reduce the linear model's norm by a factor ηk<1\eta_k<1ηk​<1 and must also give sufficient decrease of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥. Their §4, Application 1, shows that this theory also covers trust region methods. This mission formalizes that application.

Setting

Let EEE be a finite-dimensional real vector space with an arbitrary norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥ (the paper's Rn\mathbf R^nRn; the norm need not be Euclidean), and F:E→EF:E\to EF:E→E continuously differentiable with derivative F′(x)F'(x)F′(x). For a point xkx_kxk​ and a step sss, the actual reduction and predicted reduction are

ared⁡k(s)=∥F(xk)∥−∥F(xk+s)∥,pred⁡k(s)=∥F(xk)∥−∥F(xk)+F′(xk)s∥.\operatorname{ared}_k(s)=\|F(x_k)\|-\|F(x_k+s)\|,\qquad \operatorname{pred}_k(s)=\|F(x_k)\|-\|F(x_k)+F'(x_k)s\|.aredk​(s)=∥F(xk​)∥−∥F(xk​+s)∥,predk​(s)=∥F(xk​)∥−∥F(xk​)+F′(xk​)s∥.

A point xxx is a stationary point of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥ if ∥F(x)∥≤∥F(x)+F′(x)s∥\|F(x)\|\le\|F(x)+F'(x)s\|∥F(x)∥≤∥F(x)+F′(x)s∥ for every sss: no step decreases the norm of the linear model. A point x∗x_*x∗​ is a limit point of (xk)(x_k)(xk​) if every ball around x∗x_*x∗​ contains xkx_kxk​ for infinitely many kkk.

Algorithm TR is given x0x_0x0​, δˉ0>0\bar\delta_0>0δˉ0​>0, 0<t≤u<10<t\le u<10<t≤u<1 and 0<θmin⁡<θmax⁡<10<\theta_{\min}<\theta_{\max}<10<θmin​<θmax​<1. At iteration kkk it sets δk=δˉk\delta_k=\bar\delta_kδk​=δˉk​ and picks a step

sk∈arg⁡min⁡∥s∥≤δk∥F(xk)+F′(xk)s∥.(4.5)s_k\in\arg\min_{\|s\|\le\delta_k}\|F(x_k)+F'(x_k)s\|.\tag{4.5}sk​∈arg∥s∥≤δk​min​∥F(xk​)+F′(xk​)s∥.(4.5)

While ared⁡k(sk)<t⋅pred⁡k(sk)\operatorname{ared}_k(s_k)<t\cdot\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)aredk​(sk​)<t⋅predk​(sk​), it replaces δk\delta_kδk​ by θδk\theta\delta_kθδk​ for some θ∈[θmin⁡,θmax⁡]\theta\in[\theta_{\min},\theta_{\max}]θ∈[θmin​,θmax​] and picks a new sks_ksk​ by (4.5). Then xk+1=xk+skx_{k+1}=x_k+s_kxk+1​=xk​+sk​, and the next initial radius satisfies δˉk+1≥δk\bar\delta_{k+1}\ge\delta_kδˉk+1​≥δk​ if ared⁡k(sk)≥u⋅pred⁡k(sk)\operatorname{ared}_k(s_k)\ge u\cdot\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)aredk​(sk​)≥u⋅predk​(sk​), and δˉk+1≥θmin⁡δk\bar\delta_{k+1}\ge\theta_{\min}\delta_kδˉk+1​≥θmin​δk​ otherwise. The algorithm does not break down if it generates an infinite sequence of iterates.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.4

If Algorithm TR does not break down, then

every limit point x∗ of (xk) is a stationary point of ∥F∥,\text{every limit point } x_* \text{ of } (x_k) \text{ is a stationary point of } \|F\|,every limit point x∗​ of (xk​) is a stationary point of ∥F∥,

and if x∗x_*x∗​ is a limit point with F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) invertible, then

F(x∗)=0,xk→x∗,sk=−F′(xk)−1F(xk) for all sufficiently large k.F(x_*)=0,\qquad x_k\to x_*,\qquad s_k=-F'(x_k)^{-1}F(x_k)\ \text{for all sufficiently large }k.F(x∗​)=0,xk​→x∗​,sk​=−F′(xk​)−1F(xk​) for all sufficiently large k.

The statement has no constants, and it holds for every choice the algorithm leaves open: the minimizer in (4.5), the factors θ\thetaθ, and the new radii.

Milestones

  1. Corollary 3.7. Any sequence with pred⁡k(sk)≥0\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)\ge0predk​(sk​)≥0 and ared⁡k(sk)≥t⋅pred⁡k(sk)\operatorname{ared}_k(s_k)\ge t\cdot\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)aredk​(sk​)≥t⋅predk​(sk​), sk=xk+1−xks_k=x_{k+1}-x_ksk​=xk+1​−xk​, for which ∥sk∥≤Γ⋅pred⁡k(sk)\|s_k\|\le\Gamma\cdot\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)∥sk​∥≤Γ⋅predk​(sk​) near a limit point x∗x_*x∗​, converges to x∗x_*x∗​.
  2. Lemma 4.2. If F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) is invertible, then for some Γ>0\Gamma>0Γ>0, ϵ∗>0\epsilon_*>0ϵ∗​>0, every minimizer sss of (4.5) with any radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0 and ∥x−x∗∥<ϵ∗\|x-x_*\|<\epsilon_*∥x−x∗​∥<ϵ∗​ satisfies ∥s∥≤Γ{∥F(x)∥−∥F(x)+F′(x)s∥}\|s\|\le\Gamma\{\|F(x)\|-\|F(x)+F'(x)s\|\}∥s∥≤Γ{∥F(x)∥−∥F(x)+F′(x)s∥} (4.6).
  3. Lemma 4.3. If x∗x_*x∗​ is not a stationary point of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥, then (4.6) holds for radii 0<δ≤δ∗0<\delta\le\delta_*0<δ≤δ∗​ and xxx near x∗x_*x∗​.
  4. Lemma 4.1. For a run of Algorithm TR, if ∥sk∥≤Γ⋅pred⁡k(sk)\|s_k\|\le\Gamma\cdot\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)∥sk​∥≤Γ⋅predk​(sk​) (4.1) holds for every trial step of iterations with xkx_kxk​ near a limit point x∗x_*x∗​ and kkk large, then xk→x∗x_k\to x_*xk​→x∗​ and lim inf⁡kδk>0\liminf_k\delta_k>0liminfk​δk​>0.

An extra item, Corollary 3.6, states that such a sequence with ∑krelpred⁡k(sk)\sum_k\operatorname{relpred}_k(s_k)∑k​relpredk​(sk​) divergent has F(xk)→0F(x_k)\to0F(xk​)→0, where relpred⁡k(sk)=pred⁡k(sk)/∥F(xk)∥\operatorname{relpred}_k(s_k)=\operatorname{pred}_k(s_k)/\|F(x_k)\|relpredk​(sk​)=predk​(sk​)/∥F(xk​)∥ (or 111 if F(xk)=0F(x_k)=0F(xk​)=0).

Significance

Theorem 4.4 is a global convergence result that assumes neither bounded level sets, nor the existence of a solution, nor an inner-product norm. It separates two conclusions: without any regularity, the only possible accumulation points are stationary points of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥; at an accumulation point where F′F'F′ is invertible, the method finds a solution, converges to it, and eventually takes the full Newton step. The paper assumes only continuous differentiability, which does not by itself give a quadratic convergence rate. Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 are local facts about minimizers of the linear model's norm over a ball and apply to any method that uses such steps.

The result is proved in the paper. As far as we know, none of it is formalized: Mathlib has the Fréchet derivative, the inverse function theorem and invertible continuous linear maps, but no trust region or inexact Newton convergence theory. This mission produces machine-checked versions of the paper's statements for an arbitrary norm, together with a reusable vocabulary (actual/predicted reduction, stationary points of ∥F∥\|F\|∥F∥, model minimizers, trust region runs) for later formalizations of trust region and Levenberg–Marquardt type methods.

Difficulty

The obvious argument shows that ∥F(xk)∥\|F(x_k)\|∥F(xk​)∥ decreases, so it converges, and then tries to conclude that the predicted reductions tend to zero. That step fails without control on the radii: if δk→0\delta_k\to0δk​→0, small predicted reductions say nothing about stationarity, and the steps could shrink while the iterates still wander. The central difficulty is to show that near a non-stationary or regular limit point the radii stay bounded away from zero, while at the same time proving that the whole sequence converges to that limit point, not just a subsequence. Under an arbitrary norm the model minimizer is not unique and the model norm is not smooth, so arguments based on gradients of 12∥F∥22\frac12\|F\|_2^221​∥F∥22​ do not apply.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbf R^nRn with an arbitrary norm is a finite-dimensional real normed space E; F′F'F′ is fderiv ℝ F, and "continuously differentiable" is ContDiff ℝ 1 F.
  • A run of Algorithm TR is the predicate IsTRRun. Iteration kkk records the number mkm_kmk​ of while-loop passes, the factors θk,j∈[θmin⁡,θmax⁡]\theta_{k,j}\in[\theta_{\min},\theta_{\max}]θk,j​∈[θmin​,θmax​], and trial steps sk,0,…,sk,mks_{k,0},\dots,s_{k,m_k}sk,0​,…,sk,mk​​, each a minimizer of (4.5) for its radius. Trials j<mkj<m_kj<mk​ fail the test ared⁡≥t⋅pred⁡\operatorname{ared}\ge t\cdot\operatorname{pred}ared≥t⋅pred, and trial mkm_kmk​ passes it. "Does not break down" is the existence of such a run. Any minimizer in (4.5) may be chosen.
  • "Limit point" is MapClusterPt. "Sufficiently near x∗x_*x∗​ and kkk sufficiently large" is: there exist ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 and KKK such that the property holds for k≥Kk\ge Kk≥K with ∥xk−x∗∥<ρ\|x_k-x_*\|<\rho∥xk​−x∗​∥<ρ. "Whenever kkk is sufficiently large" is ∀ᶠ k in atTop.
  • "F′(x∗)F'(x_*)F′(x∗​) invertible" is (fderiv ℝ F xstar).IsInvertible. F′(xk)−1F'(x_k)^{-1}F′(xk​)−1 is ContinuousLinearMap.inverse, which is the true inverse for all large kkk.
  • "lim inf⁡δk>0\liminf\delta_k>0liminfδk​>0" is "eventually δk≥c\delta_k\ge cδk​≥c for some c>0c>0c>0"; "∑relpred⁡\sum\operatorname{relpred}∑relpred divergent" is ¬ Summable.
  • In Lemma 4.1, (4.1) is required for every trial step sk,js_{k,j}sk,j​ of iterations with xkx_kxk​ near x∗x_*x∗​ and kkk large: in Algorithm TR the symbol sks_ksk​ takes the value of each trial step, and the proof on p. 403 applies (4.1) to trial steps. Requiring it for the accepted step alone would make the lemma false. Lemmas 4.2 and 4.3 are stated with Γ>0\Gamma>0Γ>0.
  • No statement assumes F(x∗)=0F(x_*)=0F(x∗​)=0, xk→x∗x_k\to x_*xk​→x∗​, bounded level sets, a Euclidean norm or a Lipschitz derivative: those are conclusions or absent from the paper. A run predicate that forced zero steps or zero radii would make the convergence claims trivial; IsTRRun forces neither, and it has a run with nonzero steps (for F=idF=\mathrm{id}F=id on R\mathbf RR).

Needed infrastructure: the continuity of x↦F′(x)−1x\mapsto F'(x)^{-1}x↦F′(x)−1 near an invertible point (Lemma 1.1 of the paper), a uniform linearization bound ∥F(y)−F(x)−F′(x)(y−x)∥≤ε∥y−x∥\|F(y)-F(x)-F'(x)(y-x)\|\le\varepsilon\|y-x\|∥F(y)−F(x)−F′(x)(y−x)∥≤ε∥y−x∥ near a point (Lemma 1.2), and the telescoping argument of Theorem 3.5. These are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions are welcome on each milestone separately, and on general lemmas about minimizers of ∥a+Ls∥\|a+Ls\|∥a+Ls∥ over a ball.

Selected references

  • S. C. Eisenstat and H. F. Walker, Globally Convergent Inexact Newton Methods, SIAM Journal on Optimization 4(2) (1994) 393–422. https://doi.org/10.1137/0804022
  • J. J. Moré and D. C. Sorensen, Computing a Trust Region Step, SIAM Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing 4(3) (1983) 553–572. https://doi.org/10.1137/0904038
  • J. E. Dennis Jr. and R. B. Schnabel, Numerical Methods for Unconstrained Optimization and Nonlinear Equations, Prentice-Hall 1983; SIAM reprint 1996. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971200
  • R. S. Dembo, S. C. Eisenstat and T. Steihaug, Inexact Newton Methods, SIAM Journal on Numerical Analysis 19(2) (1982) 400–408. https://doi.org/10.1137/0719025
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Control TheoryDynamical SystemsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Instabilities and Stabilization Methods in Distributed Real-Time Scheduling of Manufacturing Systems 4: A Run-Truncating Priority-Queue Supervisor Keeps Every Buffer Bounded When ρₘ < 1Research Paper

Motivation

A flexible manufacturing system routes several part types through a set of machines; a machine that switches from one kind of part to another must spend a set-up time first. Each machine has to decide, in real time and from local information only, which of its waiting buffers to work on and for how long. Long runs waste little time on set-ups but starve other buffers; short runs do the opposite.

Kumar and Seidman (IEEE TAC 35(3), 1990) showed in §III of the paper that natural distributed rules (clearing policies, which keep processing a buffer until it is empty) can be unstable when parts revisit machines, even though every machine has enough capacity. Their §IV gives a sufficient condition for a subclass of such rules to be stable, which is stricter than the capacity condition. §V, the subject of this mission, asks for something stronger: a simple, distributed mechanism that a supervisor can add to any scheduling policy and that makes the system stable whenever the capacity condition alone holds.

Timeline. Perkins and Kumar (1989) proved that the capacity condition is sufficient for the existence of some stabilizing policy, and that every clear-a-fraction policy is stable on acyclic systems. Kumar and Seidman (1990) gave the instability examples for nonacyclic systems and the universal supervisor formalized here.

Setting

There are PPP part types and MMM machines. Part type ppp arrives at rate dp>0d_p>0dp​>0 and follows a route of npn_pnp​ operations; operation iii is done by machine μp,i\mu_{p,i}μp,i​ and takes τp,i>0\tau_{p,i}>0τp,i​>0 per part. Parts awaiting operation iii wait in buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​, with level xp,i(t)≥0x_{p,i}(t)\ge 0xp,i​(t)≥0. Machine mmm serves Bm={bp,i:μp,i=m}B_m=\{b_{p,i}:\mu_{p,i}=m\}Bm​={bp,i​:μp,i​=m}, and switching from bbb to b′b'b′ costs δb,b′≥0\delta_{b,b'}\ge 0δb,b′​≥0. Flows are continuous: a machine processing a nonempty buffer bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​ drains it at rate 1/τp,i1/\tau_{p,i}1/τp,i​, the output feeds bp,i+1b_{p,i+1}bp,i+1​ instantly, and a machine on an empty buffer passes its inflow through. Each machine works in runs: a set-up, then a processing phase on one buffer.

The load of machine mmm and the capacity condition are

ρm:=∑(p,i): μp,i=mdpτp,i<1(1≤m≤M).(1)\rho_m:=\sum_{(p,i):\,\mu_{p,i}=m}d_p\tau_{p,i}<1\qquad(1\le m\le M). \tag{1}ρm​:=(p,i):μp,i​=m∑​dp​τp,i​<1(1≤m≤M).(1)

The system is stable if sup⁡0≤t<∞xp,i(t)<∞\sup_{0\le t<\infty}x_{p,i}(t)<\inftysup0≤t<∞​xp,i​(t)<∞ for every buffer.

The supervisor picks γm\gamma_mγm​ with

γm(1−ρm)>∑b∈Bmmax⁡b′∈Bmδb′,b(24)\gamma_m(1-\rho_m)>\sum_{b\in B_m}\max_{b'\in B_m}\delta_{b',b} \tag{24}γm​(1−ρm​)>b∈Bm​∑​b′∈Bm​max​δb′,b​(24)

and thresholds zp,i≥0z_{p,i}\ge0zp,i​≥0. It truncates every processing run of bp,ib_{p,i}bp,i​ at γmdpτp,i\gamma_m d_p\tau_{p,i}γm​dp​τp,i​; it keeps a first-come first-served queue QmQ_mQm​ of the buffers that are not being processed and whose level exceeds zp,iz_{p,i}zp,i​; when a run ends and Qm≠∅Q_m\ne\emptysetQm​=∅, the head of QmQ_mQm​ is processed next, for exactly γmdpτp,i\gamma_m d_p\tau_{p,i}γm​dp​τp,i​ unless it clears earlier. When QmQ_mQm​ is empty the underlying policy is free. Write ζm:=γm(1−ρm)−∑b∈Bmmax⁡b′∈Bmδb′,b>0\zeta_m:=\gamma_m(1-\rho_m)-\sum_{b\in B_m}\max_{b'\in B_m}\delta_{b',b}>0ζm​:=γm​(1−ρm​)−∑b∈Bm​​maxb′∈Bm​​δb′,b​>0 (26) and βp,i(t):=∑j≤iτp,ixp,j(t)\beta_{p,i}(t):=\sum_{j\le i}\tau_{p,i}x_{p,j}(t)βp,i​(t):=∑j≤i​τp,i​xp,j​(t), the backlog of part type ppp for machine μp,i\mu_{p,i}μp,i​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

Under (1), (24) and z≥0z\ge 0z≥0, every supervised trajectory, from every initial state, satisfies

sup⁡0≤t<∞xp,i(t)<+∞for all p,i.\sup_{0\le t<\infty}x_{p,i}(t)<+\infty\qquad\text{for all }p,i.0≤t<∞sup​xp,i​(t)<+∞for all p,i.

The bound is allowed to depend on the trajectory; no uniformity in the initial state is claimed.

Milestones: Lemma 1

  1. A buffer that enters QmQ_mQm​ at tint_{\rm in}tin​ completes its next run by tin+γm−ζmt_{\rm in}+\gamma_m-\zeta_mtin​+γm​−ζm​ (25).
  2. If it enters QmQ_mQm​ with xp,i(tin)≥γmdpx_{p,i}(t_{\rm in})\ge\gamma_m d_pxp,i​(tin​)≥γm​dp​, that run lowers the backlog: βp,i(tcomplete)≤βp,i(tin)−ζmdpτp,i\beta_{p,i}(t_{\rm complete})\le\beta_{p,i}(t_{\rm in})-\zeta_m d_p\tau_{p,i}βp,i​(tcomplete​)≤βp,i​(tin​)−ζm​dp​τp,i​.
  3. A buffer that enters QmQ_mQm​ at tint_{\rm in}tin​ and stays above max⁡(γmdp,zp,i)\max(\gamma_md_p,z_{p,i})max(γm​dp​,zp,i​) (strictly above zp,iz_{p,i}zp,i​ after tint_{\rm in}tin​) up to t′t't′ has t′−tin≤(1+βp,i(tin)/(ζmdpτp,i))(γm−ζm)t'-t_{\rm in}\le(1+\beta_{p,i}(t_{\rm in})/(\zeta_md_p\tau_{p,i}))(\gamma_m-\zeta_m)t′−tin​≤(1+βp,i​(tin​)/(ζm​dp​τp,i​))(γm​−ζm​).
  4. Any interval on which xp,i≥gp,i:=max⁡(γmdp,zp,i)+γmdpx_{p,i}\ge g_{p,i}:=\max(\gamma_md_p,z_{p,i})+\gamma_md_pxp,i​≥gp,i​:=max(γm​dp​,zp,i​)+γm​dp​ has length at most ap,i+cp,iβp,i(t)a_{p,i}+c_{p,i}\beta_{p,i}(t)ap,i​+cp,i​βp,i​(t).

Significance

The theorem separates two concerns of real-time scheduling. The underlying policy can be tuned for performance (low set-up overhead, short buffers) without any stability analysis; the supervisor guarantees stability under exactly the condition that is necessary for it. The mechanism is distributed: each machine uses only its own buffer levels. With z=0z=0z=0 it enforces FCFS with truncated runs; with large zzz and γ\gammaγ it never intervenes on a policy that is already stable, so the degree of intervention is tunable. Combined with the §III instability examples, it shows that instability of clearing policies is a design defect that a local safeguard removes.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a formal model of continuous-flow manufacturing systems with set-up times and runs, a formal definition of the supervisor, and the four parts of Lemma 1 as reusable statements about it. Part 3) is stated with a corrected hypothesis (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The underlying policy is arbitrary, so no structure of the trajectory between interventions can be used: the policy may idle on empty buffers, switch at will, and re-select a buffer as soon as its run is truncated. The natural approach of bounding the total work at a machine fails, because work arrives at machine mmm from upstream machines whose behaviour depends on mmm itself through re-entrant routes, so a machine-by-machine argument is circular. A further difficulty is that the supervisor acts only on buffers above their thresholds, so a buffer can be ignored for as long as it sits at or below zp,iz_{p,i}zp,i​; any bound has to account for the time spent below the threshold and for repeated re-entries into QmQ_mQm​, with a set-up paid at each.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Part types Fin P, machines Fin M, buffers Σ p, Fin (n p); paper index iii is Lean index i−1i-1i−1. Time is real with t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Set-up times satisfy δb,b=0\delta_{b,b}=0δb,b​=0: a set-up is paid only on a switch. No transport delays or assembly, as in the paper.
  • Runs. Each machine is always in a run (no idling outside runs); a run is never cut during its set-up; run starts do not accumulate; zero-length runs are allowed. Processing is at rate at most 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ and only in a processing phase of bbb, and at exactly 1/τb1/\tau_b1/τb​ while bbb is nonempty.
  • Queue. Membership of QmQ_mQm​ is determined by the trajectory: not on the current run and level strictly above zbz_bzb​. The FCFS key is the start of the current sojourn; ties, including the initial queue at time 000, are broken arbitrarily, so every initial queue order is covered. A buffer whose run just ended is in QmQ_mQm​ at that instant if its level exceeds zbz_bzb​.
  • Lemma 1. Parts 1)–3) assume, as the page does, that the buffer enters QmQ_mQm​ at tint_{\rm in}tin​. Part 3) adds xp,i>zp,ix_{p,i}>z_{p,i}xp,i​>zp,i​ on (tin,t′](t_{\rm in},t'](tin​,t′]: with the printed non-strict hypothesis the buffer can sit at exactly zp,iz_{p,i}zp,i​, never be re-queued, and wait arbitrarily long. In 4), cp,ic_{p,i}cp,i​ is (γm−ζm)/(ζmdpτp,i)(\gamma_m-\zeta_m)/(\zeta_md_p\tau_{p,i})(γm​−ζm​)/(ζm​dp​τp,i​).
  • Ruled out. The base policy is not restricted to clearing, CAF or any fixed rule, the system is not restricted to few machines or acyclic routes, and the hypothesis of the goal is (24), not ζm>0\zeta_m>0ζm​>0. A non-vacuity witness (one machine, one buffer) shows the class of supervised trajectories is nonempty.
  • Reusable. The trajectory model (runs, set-ups, processing law) is the same as in the other missions of this series and applies to any distributed scheduling policy with set-ups.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the Lemma 1 parts, and lemmas on the model (Lipschitz continuity of levels, monotonicity of a buffer's level while it is not processed).

Selected references

  • P. R. Kumar and T. I. Seidman, Dynamic instabilities and stabilization methods in distributed real-time scheduling of manufacturing systems, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 35(3), 289–298, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.50339
  • J. R. Perkins and P. R. Kumar, Stable, distributed, real-time scheduling of flexible manufacturing/assembly/disassembly systems, IEEE Trans. Automat. Control 34(2), 139–148, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.21085
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

On Tail Probabilities for Martingales 2: For |X_n| ≤ 1 and E{X_n | ℱ_{n−1}} = 0, the Conditional Variance W_a Used to Cross a Satisfies E exp[−f(λ)W_a] ≥ exp[−λ(a+1)]Research Paper

Motivation

Exponential tail bounds for sums of bounded martingale differences (Bernstein, Bennett, Hoeffding, Freedman) are the workhorses of probability, statistics and learning theory. They bound how far a martingale can travel in a given amount of conditional variance. The converse question is just as basic: how much conditional variance does a martingale need before it reaches a given level? An answer controls the time a martingale spends below a barrier, and it is the ingredient that turns the upper half of a law of the iterated logarithm into the lower half.

David A. Freedman's paper On Tail Probabilities for Martingales (Ann. Probab. 3 (1975) 100–118) derives both kinds of result from a single observation: the exponential process Qλ(Tn,Sn)Q_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Qλ​(Tn​,Sn​) is a supermartingale and Rλ(Tn,Sn)R_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Rλ​(Tn​,Sn​) a submartingale. The first gives the inequality now called Freedman's inequality (Theorem (1.6)/(4.1)); the second gives Theorem (1.8), the subject of this mission, a lower bound on the Laplace transform of the conditional variance accumulated up to the first crossing of a level. From (1.8) the paper derives Corollary (1.9), the tail bound P{Wa≥b}<5(a+1)/b1/2P\{W_a \ge b\} < 5(a+1)/b^{1/2}P{Wa​≥b}<5(a+1)/b1/2, Lévy's theorem that sup⁡nSn=∞\sup_n S_n = \inftysupn​Sn​=∞ almost surely on {∑Vi=∞}\{\sum V_i = \infty\}{∑Vi​=∞} (Corollary (4.5)), and, through a separate analytic argument, the lower-tail bound (1.10).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal F, P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and F0⊂F1⊂⋯\mathcal F_0 \subset \mathcal F_1 \subset \cdotsF0​⊂F1​⊂⋯ an increasing sequence of sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields of F\mathcal FF. Let X1,X2,…X_1, X_2, \dotsX1​,X2​,… be real random variables with XnX_nXn​ measurable with respect to Fn\mathcal F_nFn​, satisfying the standing condition (1.1):

∣Xn∣≤1andE{Xn∣Fn−1}=0(n≥1).|X_n| \le 1 \quad\text{and}\quad E\{X_n \mid \mathcal F_{n-1}\} = 0 \qquad (n \ge 1).∣Xn​∣≤1andE{Xn​∣Fn−1​}=0(n≥1).

The conditional variance of the nnn-th step is Vn=Var⁡{Xn∣Fn−1}V_n = \operatorname{Var}\{X_n \mid \mathcal F_{n-1}\}Vn​=Var{Xn​∣Fn−1​}. The partial sums are Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n = X_1 + \cdots + X_nSn​=X1​+⋯+Xn​ and the intrinsic time is Tn=V1+⋯+VnT_n = V_1 + \cdots + V_nTn​=V1​+⋯+Vn​, with S0=T0=0S_0 = T_0 = 0S0​=T0​=0.

For a real λ\lambdaλ, let f(λ)=e−λ−1+λf(\lambda) = e^{-\lambda} - 1 + \lambdaf(λ)=e−λ−1+λ (positive for λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0), and Rλ(v,y)=exp⁡{λy−f(λ)v}R_\lambda(v, y) = \exp\{\lambda y - f(\lambda) v\}Rλ​(v,y)=exp{λy−f(λ)v}.

A stopping time is a random variable σ\sigmaσ with values in {0,1,2,…,∞}\{0, 1, 2, \dots, \infty\}{0,1,2,…,∞} such that {σ=n}∈Fn\{\sigma = n\} \in \mathcal F_n{σ=n}∈Fn​ for every nnn; it is uniformly bounded if σ≤N\sigma \le Nσ≤N everywhere for some integer NNN.

Fix a level a>0a > 0a>0. The crossing time τa\tau_aτa​ is the least nnn with Sn≥aS_n \ge aSn​≥a, and τa=∞\tau_a = \inftyτa​=∞ if there is none. The crossing variance is

Wa=Tτa=∑i=1τaVi∈[0,∞],W_a = T_{\tau_a} = \sum_{i=1}^{\tau_a} V_i \in [0, \infty],Wa​=Tτa​​=i=1∑τa​​Vi​∈[0,∞],

the total conditional variance the process needs to cross the level aaa if it crosses, and otherwise the total conditional variance ∑i≥1Vi\sum_{i \ge 1} V_i∑i≥1​Vi​, which may be infinite.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem (1.8)

For every λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and a>0a > 0a>0,

E{exp⁡[−f(λ)Wa]}≥exp⁡[−λ(a+1)],E\{\exp[-f(\lambda) W_a]\} \ge \exp[-\lambda(a+1)],E{exp[−f(λ)Wa​]}≥exp[−λ(a+1)],

with the convention exp⁡[−f(λ)⋅∞]=0\exp[-f(\lambda)\cdot\infty] = 0exp[−f(λ)⋅∞]=0.

Milestones

  1. The two-point cases of (3.7): for XXX taking only the values −1-1−1 and a>0a > 0a>0 (Case 1), or only −b-b−b and aaa with 0<b≤10 < b \le 10<b≤1 (Case 2), with E(X)=0E(X) = 0E(X)=0 and λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0,
E{exp⁡(λX)}≥exp⁡{f(λ)Var⁡X}.E\{\exp(\lambda X)\} \ge \exp\{f(\lambda) \operatorname{Var} X\}.E{exp(λX)}≥exp{f(λ)VarX}.
  1. Inequality (3.7): the same bound for every random variable X≥−1X \ge -1X≥−1 with E(X)=0E(X) = 0E(X)=0.
  2. Proposition (3.6): under (1.1), E{Rλ(Tσ,Sσ)}≥1E\{R_\lambda(T_\sigma, S_\sigma)\} \ge 1E{Rλ​(Tσ​,Sσ​)}≥1 for every λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 and every uniformly bounded stopping time σ\sigmaσ.
  3. From (4.2): Sn≤a+1S_n \le a + 1Sn​≤a+1 for n≤τan \le \tau_an≤τa​, and for every nnn,
1≤E{exp⁡[λSτa∧n−f(λ)Tτa∧n]}≤exp⁡[λ(a+1)]⋅E{exp⁡[−f(λ)Tτa∧n]}.1 \le E\{\exp[\lambda S_{\tau_a\wedge n} - f(\lambda)T_{\tau_a\wedge n}]\} \le \exp[\lambda(a+1)]\cdot E\{\exp[-f(\lambda)T_{\tau_a\wedge n}]\}.1≤E{exp[λSτa​∧n​−f(λ)Tτa​∧n​]}≤exp[λ(a+1)]⋅E{exp[−f(λ)Tτa​∧n​]}.

Significance

The result. Theorem (1.8) says that the Laplace transform of WaW_aWa​ cannot be small, so WaW_aWa​ cannot be large: a bounded martingale difference sequence crosses any level after a finite amount of conditional variance with high probability. The paper turns this into the explicit tail estimate (1.9), into Lévy's theorem that a bounded martingale with divergent conditional variance is almost surely unbounded above and below, and, combined with the upper bound (4.8) on the same Laplace transform, into the lower-tail estimate (1.10) that gives the lower half of the law of the iterated logarithm for martingales in intrinsic time. Example (4.3) of the paper shows the theorem fails when the increments are only bounded below, so the two-sided bound in (1.1) is needed.

Formalizing it. The result is classical and proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. Mathlib has conditional variance, stopping times and optional stopping for bounded stopping times, but no reverse moment-generating-function inequality such as (3.7), no submartingale property for exponential processes in intrinsic time, and no crossing-time variables valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. The mission produces these, with the conventions at infinity made explicit, as a base for the remaining results of the paper (Corollary (1.9), Corollary (4.5), the lower-tail bound (1.10)).

Difficulty

The obvious route is optional stopping at τa\tau_aτa​ itself. It fails: τa\tau_aτa​ is unbounded and may be infinite with positive probability, and Proposition (3.6) holds only for uniformly bounded stopping times. The argument must stop at τa∧n\tau_a \wedge nτa​∧n, use the overshoot bound Sτa∧n≤a+1S_{\tau_a \wedge n} \le a + 1Sτa​∧n​≤a+1 (which relies on Xn≤1X_n \le 1Xn​≤1), and pass to the limit n→∞n \to \inftyn→∞ in a way that sends the integrand to 000 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}; the limit exchange needs Tn→WaT_n \to W_aTn​→Wa​ in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] and f(λ)>0f(\lambda) > 0f(λ)>0. A second obstacle is the one-step inequality (3.7): it is a lower bound on a moment-generating function, valid for random variables bounded only from below, where Eexp⁡(λX)E\exp(\lambda X)Eexp(λX) may be infinite; the usual convexity bounds go in the opposite direction.

Formalization scope

The source is the published Annals of Probability article (a scanned copy); all page numbers are the journal's.

Conventions. Increments are a sequence X : ℕ → Ω → ℝ used from index 111; X0X_0X0​ is never read. Measurability is "XnX_nXn​ is Fn\mathcal F_nFn​-strongly measurable for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1", and the two parts of (1.1) are assumed almost surely. VnV_nVn​ is Mathlib's condVar of XnX_nXn​ given Fn−1\mathcal F_{n-1}Fn−1​; under (1.1) every XnX_nXn​ is square-integrable, so this is a genuine conditional variance and no square-integrability hypothesis is added to the martingale statements. Stopping times are Ω → WithTop ℕ (⊤ is ∞\infty∞). τa\tau_aτa​ is WithTop ℕ-valued and WaW_aWa​ is [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued (ℝ≥0∞), built from the nonnegative parts of the ViV_iVi​, which agree with ViV_iVi​ almost surely. The integrand of the goal is the function that equals e−f(λ)Wae^{-f(\lambda) W_a}e−f(λ)Wa​ on {Wa<∞}\{W_a < \infty\}{Wa​<∞} and 000 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}; replacing it by exp⁡(−f(λ)⋅toReal(Wa))\exp(-f(\lambda)\cdot\mathrm{toReal}(W_a))exp(−f(λ)⋅toReal(Wa​)), which is 111 on {Wa=∞}\{W_a = \infty\}{Wa​=∞}, would formalize a strictly weaker statement and is ruled out. In (3.7), where exp⁡(λX)\exp(\lambda X)exp(λX) need not be integrable, the expectation is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], and XXX is assumed square-integrable so that Var⁡X\operatorname{Var} XVarX is finite.

Corrected misprints. Definition (1.2)(e) prints Rλ(v,y)=exp⁡{λh−f(λ)v}R_\lambda(v,y) = \exp\{\lambda h - f(\lambda) v\}Rλ​(v,y)=exp{λh−f(λ)v}; hhh is read as yyy. The display in (4.2) prints the last factor without its expectation sign; the EEE is restored.

Ranges. The goal uses λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 and a>0a > 0a>0 as in (1.2) and (1.7); (3.6), (3.7) and its two cases are stated for λ≥0\lambda \ge 0λ≥0 as on p. 107.

Lemma (3.1) (g(x)=(ex−1−x)/x2g(x) = (e^x - 1 - x)/x^2g(x)=(ex−1−x)/x2 is increasing), used in Case 2, is posed in the companion mission on Freedman's inequality and not here. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a general lemma that Rλ(Tn,Sn)R_\lambda(T_n, S_n)Rλ​(Tn​,Sn​) is a submartingale, and Corollary (1.9) as a follow-up.

Selected references

  • David A. Freedman, On Tail Probabilities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 3(1), 1975, 100–118. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996452
  • Paul Lévy, Théorie de l'addition des variables aléatoires, Gauthier-Villars, 1937 (Theorem 68, p. 247, cited in (4.5)).
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Generalized “Birth-and-Death” Process 3: Given the Mean Growth n̄_t, the Rates λ = (n̄′/n̄)⁺, μ = (n̄′/n̄)⁻ Uniquely Minimize Var(n_t) for All tResearch Paper

Motivation

In a birth-and-death population model, an expected population curve does not determine the amount of random variation. Births and deaths can occur frequently while nearly canceling in the mean, or one of the two rates can vanish while giving the same mean. This distinction matters when a prescribed growth curve is used to model a population: two processes can agree on their expected size at every time and differ substantially in their uncertainty. In §6 of Kendall's 1948 paper, the question is posed directly: among time-varying birth and death rates giving a fixed mean curve, which choice minimizes the variance of the population size?

Kendall cites Arley's observation for constant rates with the same positive net growth. His §6 moves from that special case to an arbitrary prescribed mean curve and identifies a unique minimum-fluctuation rate pair. The paper also gives a logistic-growth example, connecting the stochastic rate choice to a familiar deterministic population law. The historical result is proved in the paper; this mission concerns its Lean formalization, including the exact time-dependent variance comparison and uniqueness claim.

Setting

The process starts with one ancestor. At time ttt, each member gives birth at rate λ(t)\lambda(t)λ(t) and dies at rate μ(t)\mu(t)μ(t); the rates are nonnegative. Let ntn_tnt​ be the population size and nˉt\bar n_tnˉt​ its expectation. Kendall works with the population probabilities and their generating function rather than constructing sample paths. This mission likewise uses his explicit formulas for the mean and variance, so that the comparison has a precise real-valued expression.

Define the integrated net death rate and the fluctuation by

ρλ,μ(t)=∫0t(μ(τ)−λ(τ)) dτ,Vλ,μ(t)=e−2ρλ,μ(t)∫0teρλ,μ(τ)(λ(τ)+μ(τ)) dτ.\rho_{\lambda,\mu}(t)=\int_0^t\bigl(\mu(\tau)-\lambda(\tau)\bigr)\,d\tau, \qquad V_{\lambda,\mu}(t)=e^{-2\rho_{\lambda,\mu}(t)} \int_0^t e^{\rho_{\lambda,\mu}(\tau)} \bigl(\lambda(\tau)+\mu(\tau)\bigr)\,d\tau.ρλ,μ​(t)=∫0t​(μ(τ)−λ(τ))dτ,Vλ,μ​(t)=e−2ρλ,μ​(t)∫0t​eρλ,μ​(τ)(λ(τ)+μ(τ))dτ.

Kendall's equations (13) and (14c) identify nˉt=e−ρλ,μ(t)\bar n_t=e^{-\rho_{\lambda,\mu}(t)}nˉt​=e−ρλ,μ​(t) and Vλ,μ(t)=Var⁡(nt)V_{\lambda,\mu}(t)=\operatorname{Var}(n_t)Vλ,μ​(t)=Var(nt​) for the one-ancestor process. A pair (λ,μ)(\lambda,\mu)(λ,μ) is admissible here when both rates are continuous and nonnegative on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). It has mean nˉ\bar nnˉ when e−ρλ,μ(t)=nˉte^{-\rho_{\lambda,\mu}(t)}=\bar n_te−ρλ,μ​(t)=nˉt​ for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0. In particular, the initial value is nˉ0=1\bar n_0=1nˉ0​=1. These definitions let the mission quantify over every admissible rate pair with the prescribed mean.

For a positive continuously differentiable mean curve, write g(t)=nˉt′/nˉtg(t)=\bar n_t'/\bar n_tg(t)=nˉt′​/nˉt​. The minimum-fluctuation rates are λ∗(t)=max⁡{g(t),0}\lambda_*(t)=\max\{g(t),0\}λ∗​(t)=max{g(t),0} and μ∗(t)=max⁡{−g(t),0}\mu_*(t)=\max\{-g(t),0\}μ∗​(t)=max{−g(t),0}. When the mean decreases, only deaths occur; when it increases, only births occur; when it is locally constant, both rates are zero. This is Kendall's equation (56), expressed without first naming intervals of monotonicity.

Formalization targets

The goal is the simultaneous variance bound

Vλ∗,μ∗(t)≤Vλ,μ(t)for every t≥0 and every admissible (λ,μ) with mean nˉ.V_{\lambda_*,\mu_*}(t)\le V_{\lambda,\mu}(t) \quad\text{for every }t\ge0 \text{ and every admissible }(\lambda,\mu)\text{ with mean }\bar n.Vλ∗​,μ∗​​(t)≤Vλ,μ​(t)for every t≥0 and every admissible (λ,μ) with mean nˉ.

The statement also establishes that (λ∗,μ∗)(\lambda_*,\mu_*)(λ∗​,μ∗​) is admissible and has the required mean. Its uniqueness clause says that if one admissible pair has the same variance as the candidate at every nonnegative time, then its two rates equal the candidate rates at every nonnegative time. Equality at only one selected time does not express Kendall's claim. The formal milestones record the fixed rate difference (55), the integral decomposition displayed in §6, and the nonnegative excess in variance that precedes (56). A companion statement covers the logistic example (58)–(60): for a>1a>1a>1 and b>0b>0b>0, nˉt=a/(1+(a−1)e−bt)\bar n_t=a/(1+(a-1)e^{-bt})nˉt​=a/(1+(a−1)e−bt) has minimum-fluctuation death rate zero and birth rate b(1−nˉt/a)b(1-\bar n_t/a)b(1−nˉt​/a).

Significance

The result distinguishes mean growth from population risk. Fixing λ−μ\lambda-\muλ−μ fixes the mean curve, but it leaves room for births and deaths that offset one another. Kendall's theorem determines the lowest variance compatible with the given curve and specifies the rate pair attaining it. The uniqueness statement identifies a model, rather than only a numerical lower bound. His logistic example shows the choice concretely: positive logistic growth is realized by a purely reproductive process in the minimum-fluctuation model.

The paper already derives these formulas. A complete formalization would connect the exact variance expression to a universal optimization claim over continuous nonnegative rate functions, and it would verify that equality throughout time identifies the rates. The definitions of the integrated rate, mean condition and variance functional can also support the other results in Kendall's paper. This proposal uses a local copy of ρ\rhoρ because the geometric-solution mission is being drafted in parallel and its definition has not been published for import.

Difficulty

The constraint imposed by a given mean fixes the difference λ−μ\lambda-\muλ−μ but not either rate separately. The variance is an integral over the full past, multiplied by a term involving that same integrated difference. Consequently, a pointwise observation about the current sum λ(t)+μ(t)\lambda(t)+\mu(t)λ(t)+μ(t) does not by itself state the required comparison of variances over every time horizon. The equality case is also global: a single time's variance cannot generally identify the rates at all earlier times. The formal result must keep the shared mean condition, the variance integral and the quantifiers over both rate pairs and all nonnegative times aligned.

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents rates and the prescribed mean as functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R. Every stochastic claim is restricted to t≥0t\ge0t≥0; the integrals are oriented interval integrals from zero. Both rates are continuous on all of R\mathbb RR and nonnegative on nonnegative time. The mean is C1C^1C1, positive on all of R\mathbb RR, and equals one at zero. Extending the regularity and positivity assumptions to negative time makes the total functions defining ggg, λ∗\lambda_*λ∗​ and μ∗\mu_*μ∗​ continuous without changing any comparison on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). These are explicit convenience assumptions beyond Kendall's wording. No denominator is used without the positivity assumption.

Kendall presents (56) after assuming that positive time splits into decreasing, increasing and constant intervals of nˉ\bar nnˉ. The goal uses positive and negative parts of ggg and therefore covers any positive C1C^1C1 curve, including one without such a partition. On each of Kendall's three types of interval the formula agrees with his stated rates. The variance functional is exactly the last expression in (14c); its identification with the variance of the geometric population law is treated in the companion geometric-solution mission. The local statements do not construct a Markov process. The minimum is taken over all admissible continuous nonnegative rate pairs with the prescribed mean, not merely over the two candidate functions or over pointwise values of λ+μ\lambda+\muλ+μ.

The development needs real differentiation, continuity, exponentials and interval integrals from Mathlib. Contributions that relate the explicit functional to the population law, prove the comparison and its equality case, or extend the regularity regime while preserving Kendall's claim are within scope. The logistic example provides a concrete instance of the general result.

Selected references

  • D. G. Kendall, On the generalized “birth-and-death” process, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 19(1), 1–15, 1948. DOI: 10.1214/aoms/1177730285.
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Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 8: For Concave Φ, EΦ(Σ z_k) ≤ 2·EΦ(Σ E(z_k | 𝒜_{k−1})) for Nonnegative z_kResearch Paper

Motivation

A recurring task in martingale theory is to compare a sum of nonnegative random variables z1,z2,…z_1, z_2, \dotsz1​,z2​,… with the sum of their predictable projections E(zk∣Ak−1)E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1})E(zk​∣Ak−1​): the conditional expectation of each term given the information available one step earlier. Such comparisons are the step that turns a statement about the conditional square function s(f)s(f)s(f) of a martingale into a statement about the martingale itself, and they recur in the proofs of the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequalities and of their conditional variants.

In his 1971 Wald Memorial Lectures, published as Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales (Burkholder 1973), D. L. Burkholder proves two such comparisons for a function Φ\PhiΦ applied to the sums. For convex Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth, the sum of predictable projections is controlled by the sum itself, up to a constant (Lemma 16.1, the "convexity lemma", §16). For concave Φ\PhiΦ, §20 proves the reverse comparison, with the explicit constant 222. This mission is the concave case, Theorem 20.1.

The same section derives Theorem 20.2 from it: for a martingale fff and concave Φ\PhiΦ, EΦ((f∗)2)≤5 EΦ(s2(f))E\Phi((f^*)^2) \le 5\,E\Phi(s^2(f))EΦ((f∗)2)≤5EΦ(s2(f)). For the concave powers Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda) = \lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp, 0<p≤10 < p \le 10<p≤1, that bound had been proved by another method in Burkholder, Davis and Gundy 1972. Comparisons of the same kind between an increasing process and its compensator were later systematized as the Lenglart domination principle (Lenglart 1977).

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega, \mathcal A, P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space and A0⊆A1⊆⋯\mathcal A_0 \subseteq \mathcal A_1 \subseteq \cdotsA0​⊆A1​⊆⋯ a non-decreasing sequence of sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields of A\mathcal AA. In Lean this is a probability measure P together with a filtration ℱ : Filtration ℕ mΩ, ℱ k =Ak= \mathcal A_k=Ak​.

Let z1,z2,…z_1, z_2, \dotsz1​,z2​,… be nonnegative measurable functions on (Ω,A)(\Omega, \mathcal A)(Ω,A), with values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. They need not be integrable, and they need not be adapted: zkz_kzk​ is only A\mathcal AA-measurable. For a nonnegative function the conditional expectation E(zk∣Ak−1)E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1})E(zk​∣Ak−1​) always exists as an Ak−1\mathcal A_{k-1}Ak−1​-measurable function with values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞], determined up to null sets by ∫AE(zk∣Ak−1) dP=∫Azk dP\int_A E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1})\,dP = \int_A z_k\,dP∫A​E(zk​∣Ak−1​)dP=∫A​zk​dP for A∈Ak−1A \in \mathcal A_{k-1}A∈Ak−1​. Put

Z=∑k=1∞zk,W=∑k=1∞E(zk∣Ak−1),Z = \sum_{k=1}^\infty z_k, \qquad W = \sum_{k=1}^\infty E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1}),Z=k=1∑∞​zk​,W=k=1∑∞​E(zk​∣Ak−1​),

and, for 0≤n≤∞0 \le n \le \infty0≤n≤∞, the partial sums ZnZ_nZn​, WnW_nWn​ over 1≤k≤n1 \le k \le n1≤k≤n.

A function Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞]\Phi : [0, \infty] \to [0, \infty]Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞] is concave as above in the paper's sense if it is non-decreasing and continuous on [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞], Φ(0)=0\Phi(0) = 0Φ(0)=0, it satisfies the growth condition Φ(2λ)≤c Φ(λ)\Phi(2\lambda) \le c\,\Phi(\lambda)Φ(2λ)≤cΦ(λ) for λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, and it is concave on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞). Concavity alone already gives Φ(2λ)≤2Φ(λ)\Phi(2\lambda) \le 2\Phi(\lambda)Φ(2λ)≤2Φ(λ). Examples: Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda) = \lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp for 0<p≤10 < p \le 10<p≤1, Φ(λ)=λ∧a\Phi(\lambda) = \lambda \wedge aΦ(λ)=λ∧a, Φ(λ)=log⁡(1+λ)\Phi(\lambda) = \log(1 + \lambda)Φ(λ)=log(1+λ).

For a martingale f=(f1,f2,… )f = (f_1, f_2, \dots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) with differences dk=fk−fk−1d_k = f_k - f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ (f0=0f_0 = 0f0​=0), the maximal function is f∗=sup⁡n∣fn∣f^* = \sup_n |f_n|f∗=supn​∣fn​∣ and the conditional square function is s(f)=[∑k=1∞E(dk2∣Ak−1)]1/2s(f) = \bigl[\sum_{k=1}^\infty E(d_k^2 \mid \mathcal A_{k-1})\bigr]^{1/2}s(f)=[∑k=1∞​E(dk2​∣Ak−1​)]1/2.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 20.1 (p. 38)

EΦ(∑k=1∞zk)≤2 EΦ(∑k=1∞E(zk∣Ak−1))E\Phi\Bigl(\sum_{k=1}^\infty z_k\Bigr) \le 2\,E\Phi\Bigl(\sum_{k=1}^\infty E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1})\Bigr)EΦ(k=1∑∞​zk​)≤2EΦ(k=1∑∞​E(zk​∣Ak−1​))

for every Φ\PhiΦ concave as above and all nonnegative measurable z1,z2,…z_1, z_2, \dotsz1​,z2​,…. The constant 222 is universal: it does not depend on Φ\PhiΦ, on the growth constant ccc, on the probability space or on the zkz_kzk​.

Milestones

  1. (§20, proof of Theorem 20.1.) For τ=inf⁡{n≥0:Wn+1>λ}\tau = \inf\{n \ge 0 : W_{n+1} > \lambda\}τ=inf{n≥0:Wn+1​>λ}: EZτ=EWτ≤E(W∧λ)EZ_\tau = EW_\tau \le E(W \wedge \lambda)EZτ​=EWτ​≤E(W∧λ) and E[λI(τ<∞)]=λP(W>λ)≤E(W∧λ)E[\lambda I(\tau < \infty)] = \lambda P(W > \lambda) \le E(W \wedge \lambda)E[λI(τ<∞)]=λP(W>λ)≤E(W∧λ).
  2. (20.2) The truncated inequality
E(Z∧λ)≤2 E(W∧λ),λ>0.E(Z \wedge \lambda) \le 2\,E(W \wedge \lambda), \qquad \lambda > 0.E(Z∧λ)≤2E(W∧λ),λ>0.
  1. (§20, proof of Theorem 20.1.) Inequality (20.2) implies (20.1). This is stated for arbitrary measurable [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]-valued ZZZ and WWW, since the paper's argument uses nothing about ZZZ and WWW beyond (20.2).

Further result: Theorem 20.2 (p. 39)

For a martingale fff and Φ\PhiΦ concave as above,

EΦ((f∗)2)≤5 EΦ(s2(f)).E\Phi\bigl((f^*)^2\bigr) \le 5\,E\Phi\bigl(s^2(f)\bigr).EΦ((f∗)2)≤5EΦ(s2(f)).

It is posed as a separate theorem and is not a milestone of the goal.

Significance

Theorem 20.1 holds without any integrability and without adaptedness, so it applies to arbitrary nonnegative sequences. With zk=dk2z_k = d_k^2zk​=dk2​ it compares the square function S2(f)=∑dk2S^2(f) = \sum d_k^2S2(f)=∑dk2​ of a martingale with s2(f)s^2(f)s2(f): for concave Φ\PhiΦ, EΦ(S2(f))≤2EΦ(s2(f))E\Phi(S^2(f)) \le 2E\Phi(s^2(f))EΦ(S2(f))≤2EΦ(s2(f)). Together with the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy comparison of S(f)S(f)S(f) and f∗f^*f∗, this is one route from the conditional square function to the maximal function in the range of exponents p≤2p \le 2p≤2, where the convex methods of the rest of the paper do not apply. Theorem 20.2 is the result of this kind that the paper states.

The paper proves Theorem 20.1 in about half a page. As far as is known, neither Theorem 20.1 nor Theorem 20.2 has been formalized in any proof assistant. Mathlib provides the [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]-valued conditional expectation (condLExp), filtrations, stopping times and Lebesgue integrals of extended nonnegative functions. It has no comparison theorem of this type between a sum and its predictable projections. A formal proof would therefore add a new, reusable tool to Mathlib's discrete-time martingale library, one that an eventual formal Lenglart inequality or conditional BDG inequality would need.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea is Jensen's inequality for conditional expectations. For concave Φ\PhiΦ it gives E(Φ(zk)∣Ak−1)≤Φ(E(zk∣Ak−1))E(\Phi(z_k) \mid \mathcal A_{k-1}) \le \Phi(E(z_k \mid \mathcal A_{k-1}))E(Φ(zk​)∣Ak−1​)≤Φ(E(zk​∣Ak−1​)) term by term, but Φ\PhiΦ of a sum is not the sum of the Φ\PhiΦ's, and summing the termwise bounds loses the comparison. Another first idea, comparing EZEZEZ and EWEWEW (which are equal by the tower property), handles only linear Φ\PhiΦ, and both sides may be infinite.

The content lies in two places. The first is the truncated inequality for Φ(t)=t∧λ\Phi(t) = t \wedge \lambdaΦ(t)=t∧λ, where neither ZZZ nor WWW is integrable in general and the comparison must hold level by level. The second is the passage from the truncated family to an arbitrary concave Φ\PhiΦ. It needs a representation of concave Φ\PhiΦ through the truncations t∧λt \wedge \lambdat∧λ, including the cases t=0t = 0t=0 and t=∞t = \inftyt=∞ and a possibly infinite right derivative at 000 (as for λp\lambda^pλp). Both steps must be carried out in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞] arithmetic.

Formalization scope

  • Values in [0,∞][0, \infty][0,∞]. zkz_kzk​, the sums ZZZ, WWW, Φ\PhiΦ and all expectations are ℝ≥0∞-valued; expectations are lower Lebesgue integrals ∫⁻. The conditional expectation is Mathlib's condLExp (notation P⁻[z | ℱ k]), never the Bochner P[z | ℱ k]. The Bochner version is 000 on non-integrable functions and would make the goal false (take W=0W = 0W=0).
  • Indexing. z (k+1) is zk+1z_{k+1}zk+1​ and is paired with ℱ k =Ak= \mathcal A_k=Ak​, so z1z_1z1​ is conditioned on A0\mathcal A_0A0​, as in the paper. z 0 is unused.
  • "Concave as above" is IsPhi Φ c for an arbitrary constant c, together with IsConcavePhi Φ: concavity of t↦Φ(t)t \mapsto \Phi(t)t↦Φ(t) on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞), read through real values. This is honest because IsPhi forces Φ\PhiΦ to be finite on finite arguments. The growth condition is required for every x∈[0,∞]x \in [0, \infty]x∈[0,∞], which is equivalent to (6.1) by continuity. The paper's exclusion of Φ≡0\Phi \equiv 0Φ≡0 is dropped, since the conclusion is trivial there.
  • Measurability. The zkz_kzk​ are A\mathcal AA-measurable and are not assumed adapted. λ\lambdaλ in (20.2) is a positive real (l : ℝ≥0).
  • Theorem 20.2 uses Mathlib's Martingale f ℱ P. It reads f n only for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, with the paper's convention f0=0f_0 = 0f0​=0. Mathlib's extra constraint on f 0 is no restriction, since every martingale of the paper extends by f0:=E(f1∣A0)f_0 := E(f_1 \mid \mathcal A_0)f0​:=E(f1​∣A0​).
  • Ruled out. Assuming the zkz_kzk​ integrable or square integrable, using the Bochner conditional expectation, or letting the constant depend on Φ\PhiΦ would each change the theorem. None of them is used.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs the tower and pull-out properties of condLExp for indicators of Ak−1\mathcal A_{k-1}Ak−1​-sets, monotone convergence for condLExp, and the integral representation of a concave non-decreasing Φ\PhiΦ with Φ(0)=0\Phi(0) = 0Φ(0)=0 as a mixture of the functions t↦t∧λt \mapsto t \wedge \lambdat↦t∧λ plus a linear part. The last is reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any of these are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, Annals of Probability 1(1), 19–42, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176997023
  • D. L. Burkholder, B. J. Davis and R. F. Gundy, Integral inequalities for convex functions of operators on martingales, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob. 2, 223–240, 1972. https://projecteuclid.org/proceedings/berkeley-symposium-on-mathematical-statistics-and-probability/Proceedings-of-the-Sixth-Berkeley-Symposium-on-Mathematical-Statistics-and/Chapter/Integral-inequalities-for-convex-functions-of-operators-on-martingales/bsmsp/1200514225
  • E. Lenglart, Relation de domination entre deux processus, Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincaré B 13(2), 171–179, 1977. http://www.numdam.org/item/AIHPB_1977__13_2_171_0/
  • A. Zygmund, Trigonometric Series, Vol. I, Cambridge University Press, 1959 (the concave-function representation the paper cites, p. 24). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316036587
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Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 7: A Martingale of Bounded Mean Oscillation Satisfies E exp(tS²(f)) ≤ (1 − t)⁻¹Research Paper

Motivation

A martingale can have individually well behaved increments while the sum of their squares remains large on rare sample paths. The square function records that accumulated variation. Bounds on its distribution tell probabilists how much a martingale can fluctuate even when a terminal value alone gives little pathwise information. In Section 19 of Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, D. L. Burkholder studies a conditional tail bound for squared increments and obtains an explicit exponential moment for the entire square function. The result is Theorem 19.1, with a one-parameter constant fixed exactly as (1−t)−1(1-t)^{-1}(1−t)−1 for 0<t<10<t<10<t<1 (Burkholder 1973, p. 37).

The paper calls the linear span of martingales satisfying this normalized tail condition BMO, and notes that bounded martingales belong to it after a suitable scaling. It connects this martingale notion to bounded mean oscillation of functions, introduced by John and Nirenberg, and to the surrounding work on the duality with H1H^1H1 (Burkholder 1973, p. 38). The mission isolates the article's concrete exponential estimate, which can be read and used without developing the whole later theory of BMO.

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space and let (An)n≥0(\mathcal A_n)_{n\ge0}(An​)n≥0​ be an increasing sequence of sub-sigma-fields. A real martingale is written f=(fn)n≥1f=(f_n)_{n\ge1}f=(fn​)n≥1​ relative to (An)n≥1(\mathcal A_n)_{n\ge1}(An​)n≥1​. Following the article's convention, put f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 for its difference sequence, so d1=f1d_1=f_1d1​=f1​ and dn=fn−fn−1d_n=f_n-f_{n-1}dn​=fn​−fn−1​ for n≥2n\ge2n≥2. The partial square function and the full square function are

Sn(f)=(∑k=1ndk2)1/2,S(f)=(∑k=1∞dk2)1/2=sup⁡n≥1Sn(f).S_n(f)=\left(\sum_{k=1}^{n}d_k^2\right)^{1/2},\qquad S(f)=\left(\sum_{k=1}^{\infty}d_k^2\right)^{1/2}=\sup_{n\ge1}S_n(f).Sn​(f)=(k=1∑n​dk2​)1/2,S(f)=(k=1∑∞​dk2​)1/2=n≥1sup​Sn​(f).

These are nonnegative random variables and the full one may initially take the value +∞+\infty+∞. The paper fixes this notation in Section 1 (Burkholder 1973, p. 20).

The condition used here is a bound on the expected squared-increment tail after conditioning on the information An\mathcal A_nAn​ available at time nnn:

E[∑k=n∞dk2 | An]≤1almost surely, for every n≥1.(19.1)\mathbf E\left[\sum_{k=n}^{\infty}d_k^2\,\middle|\,\mathcal A_n\right]\le1\quad\text{almost surely, for every }n\ge1.\tag{19.1}E[k=n∑∞​dk2​​An​]≤1almost surely, for every n≥1.(19.1)

The sum starts at k=nk=nk=n, including dn2d_n^2dn2​, and the conditioning sigma-field is An\mathcal A_nAn​. Both indices matter; shifting either changes the hypothesis. The value 111 is a normalization, not an unnamed bound whose choice can depend on the martingale (Burkholder 1973, p. 37).

Formalization targets

Tail integral estimate

The first milestone is the distribution estimate displayed in the proof of Theorem 19.1. For every a>0a>0a>0,

∫a∞P(S(f)2>x) dx≤P(S(f)2>a).\int_a^\infty P\big(S(f)^2>x\big)\,dx\le P\big(S(f)^2>a\big).∫a∞​P(S(f)2>x)dx≤P(S(f)2>a).

It records exactly the quantitative link between the conditional hypothesis and the distribution of the full square function (Burkholder 1973, p. 37).

Exponential-moment lemma

The second milestone is Lemma 18.1. For a nonnegative measurable ggg and a constant α>0\alpha>0α>0, suppose

∫a∞P(g>x) dx≤αP(g>a)(a>0).\int_a^\infty P(g>x)\,dx\le\alpha P(g>a)\quad(a>0).∫a∞​P(g>x)dx≤αP(g>a)(a>0).

Then ggg has an exponential moment at every 0<t<α−10<t<\alpha^{-1}0<t<α−1, bounded by (1−αt)−1(1-\alpha t)^{-1}(1−αt)−1. The lemma is stated for any probability space and any nonnegative measurable ggg, so it is reusable beyond martingale square functions (Burkholder 1973, p. 36).

Goal: Theorem 19.1

Under (19.1), the goal is the article's explicit estimate

E[exp⁡(tS(f)2)]≤(1−t)−1,0<t<1.(19.2)\mathbf E\big[\exp(tS(f)^2)\big]\le(1-t)^{-1},\qquad 0<t<1.\tag{19.2}E[exp(tS(f)2)]≤(1−t)−1,0<t<1.(19.2)

In particular, S(f)S(f)S(f) is finite almost surely. The exact coefficient and the whole open interval for ttt are part of the target (Burkholder 1973, p. 37).

Significance

The conclusion gives more than finiteness of the square function or any fixed moment: one conditional second-moment tail condition yields a family of exponential bounds for its square. The paper points out that bounded martingales meet the condition after scaling, placing a familiar class within this BMO framework (Burkholder 1973, pp. 37–38). The constant (1−t)−1(1-t)^{-1}(1−t)−1 makes the normalization of (19.1) visible and allows later users to choose a value of ttt without recovering an unspecified constant.

Formalizing this result produces a reusable interface between conditional expectations of nonnegative series, tail probabilities, and exponential moments. The exact Theorem 19.1 and Lemma 18.1 are posed as Lean statements here; their proofs are not yet machine checked in this mission. Mathlib supplies probability measures, filtrations, martingales, extended nonnegative integrals, and generalized conditional expectation. Completing the mission would establish the paper's stated quantitative bound in that setting, while the standalone exponential lemma could also be imported by developments with different stochastic objects.

Difficulty

The hypothesis bounds a conditional expectation of the entire future squared-increment tail at every time. It does not bound S(f)2S(f)^2S(f)2 pointwise: rare paths may accumulate a large sum while the conditional average remains controlled. A direct attempt to bound the exponential term by bounding each increment separately loses the dependence across times and does not yield the stated coefficient. The central mathematical gap is therefore the passage from time-indexed conditional tail information to a global distribution estimate that is strong enough for the exact exponential constant (Burkholder 1973, pp. 36–37).

Formalization scope

The Lean development represents dnd_ndn​ and Sn(f)S_n(f)Sn​(f) by explicit definitions and S(f)S(f)S(f) as the supremum of its partial square functions, valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Thus a divergent square function has value +∞+\infty+∞, rather than a default real supremum. Probability tails and expectations of nonnegative functions use extended nonnegative measures and integrals. Condition (19.1) uses generalized conditional expectation of the nonnegative series; ordinary real conditional expectation could return a default zero on a non-integrable tail and make the assumption empty. The inequality holds almost everywhere, as conditional expectations are determined only up to null sets.

The article starts its martingale at index one and sets f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 for differences. Mathlib's martingale is indexed from zero. Its index-zero value can be supplied by a conditional expectation of f1f_1f1​; the shared difference-sequence definition still reads the paper's f0=0f_0=0f0​=0. The squared tail begins at n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and is conditioned on An\mathcal A_nAn​. The goal states almost-sure finiteness of S(f)S(f)S(f) as a conclusion before applying the real exponential to its finite value. This avoids treating +∞+\infty+∞ as zero through an extended-real conversion. No finiteness of S(f)S(f)S(f), integrability of its square, or exponential moment is assumed at the outset. The zero martingale on a one-point probability space satisfies the condition, so the hypotheses admit a concrete instance.

The common martingale definitions also include maximal functions, stopped values, LpL^pLp norms, a conditional square function, and the class of moderate-growth functions Φ\PhiΦ used by other missions from this article. The reusable contributions especially welcome here are the tail integral lemma for extended nonnegative functions and results connecting generalized conditional expectation with a nonnegative infinite sum. The exact source indices, constants, and boundary conventions are fixed by the source pages cited above.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 1(1), 19–42, 1973. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176997023.
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Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 9: EΦ(f*) Is Controlled by the Conditional Square Function and the Largest Jump, for Every Φ of Moderate GrowthResearch Paper

Motivation

A martingale f=(f1,f2,… )f=(f_1,f_2,\dots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) is a sum of increments dk=fk−fk−1d_k=f_k-f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ each of which has conditional mean zero given the past. Most quantitative statements about martingales compare the size of the maximal function f∗=sup⁡n∣fn∣f^*=\sup_n|f_n|f∗=supn​∣fn​∣ with some measure of the size of the increments. Two such measures are classical: the square function S(f)=(∑kdk2)1/2S(f)=(\sum_k d_k^2)^{1/2}S(f)=(∑k​dk2​)1/2, which sums the realized squared increments, and the conditional square function s(f)=(∑kE(dk2∣Ak−1))1/2s(f)=(\sum_k E(d_k^2\mid\mathcal A_{k-1}))^{1/2}s(f)=(∑k​E(dk2​∣Ak−1​))1/2, which sums their predicted conditional variances. The conditional square function is the discrete analogue of the predictable quadratic variation ⟨M⟩\langle M\rangle⟨M⟩ of a continuous-time martingale, and it is the quantity that appears in martingale central limit theorems, Freedman- and Bernstein-type exponential bounds, and in the analysis of stochastic approximation algorithms, where the noise is typically described through its conditional variance.

This mission formalizes Theorem 21.1 of D. L. Burkholder's 1971 Wald Memorial Lectures, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales (Ann. Probability 1 (1973) 19–42). The theorem bounds EΦ(f∗)E\Phi(f^*)EΦ(f∗) by EΦ(s(f))E\Phi(s(f))EΦ(s(f)) and the size of the largest jump, for every Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth.

Timeline. Rosenthal (1970) proved, for sums of independent mean-zero random variables and 2≤p<∞2\le p<\infty2≤p<∞, that the ppp-th moment of the sum is comparable to (∑kEdk2)p/2+∑kE∣dk∣p(\sum_k Ed_k^2)^{p/2}+\sum_k E|d_k|^p(∑k​Edk2​)p/2+∑k​E∣dk​∣p (Israel J. Math. 8 (1970)). Burkholder and Gundy (1970, [6] in the paper) developed extrapolation methods for martingale operators, including Example 8.2, which shows that EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(s(f))E\Phi(S(f))\le cE\Phi(s(f))EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(s(f)) fails for general Φ\PhiΦ (Acta Math. 124 (1970)). Theorem 21.1 follows from Theorem 3.1 of Burkholder, Davis and Gundy (1972, [5] in the paper), as remarked at the top of p. 553 of Burkholder's 1970 ICM address ([4] in the paper). In the Wald lectures Burkholder gives a direct proof by a distribution function inequality, which this mission formalizes.

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space and A0⊆A1⊆⋯\mathcal A_0\subseteq\mathcal A_1\subseteq\cdotsA0​⊆A1​⊆⋯ a nondecreasing sequence of sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields of A\mathcal AA. Let f=(f1,f2,… )f=(f_1,f_2,\dots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) be a martingale relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1,\mathcal A_2,\dotsA1​,A2​,…, and set f0=0f_0=0f0​=0, so that the difference sequence is d1=f1d_1=f_1d1​=f1​ and dk=fk−fk−1d_k=f_k-f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ for k≥2k\ge2k≥2. Define

f∗=sup⁡n≥1∣fn∣,d∗=sup⁡k≥1∣dk∣,s(f)=[∑k=1∞E(dk2∣Ak−1)]1/2.f^*=\sup_{n\ge1}|f_n|,\qquad d^*=\sup_{k\ge1}|d_k|,\qquad s(f)=\Big[\sum_{k=1}^\infty E\big(d_k^2\mid\mathcal A_{k-1}\big)\Big]^{1/2}.f∗=n≥1sup​∣fn​∣,d∗=k≥1sup​∣dk​∣,s(f)=[k=1∑∞​E(dk2​∣Ak−1​)]1/2.

The first conditional expectation is taken with respect to A0\mathcal A_0A0​. All three quantities may be infinite.

A function Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞]\Phi:[0,\infty]\to[0,\infty]Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞] satisfies the conditions of Section 7 if it is nondecreasing and continuous, Φ(0)=0\Phi(0)=0Φ(0)=0, and it has moderate growth:

Φ(2λ)≤c Φ(λ),λ>0.(6.1)\Phi(2\lambda)\le c\,\Phi(\lambda),\qquad\lambda>0. \tag{6.1}Φ(2λ)≤cΦ(λ),λ>0.(6.1)

The constant c=c(6.1)c=c_{(6.1)}c=c(6.1)​ is the growth constant. The powers Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda)=\lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp, 0<p<∞0<p<\infty0<p<∞, are the basic examples; Φ\PhiΦ need not be convex.

In Lean the shared layer is BurkholderDFI.CondSquare.Martingale: dseq f is ddd, maxFn f is f∗f^*f∗, maxFn (dseq f) is d∗d^*d∗, condSqFn ℱ P f is s(f)s(f)s(f) and IsPhi Φ c is the class above.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 21.1

For every growth constant c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​ there is a constant ccc such that for every martingale fff and every Φ\PhiΦ satisfying the conditions of Section 7,

EΦ(f∗)≤c EΦ(s(f))+c EΦ(d∗).(21.1)E\Phi(f^*)\le c\,E\Phi(s(f))+c\,E\Phi(d^*). \tag{21.1}EΦ(f∗)≤cEΦ(s(f))+cEΦ(d∗).(21.1)

The constant depends only on c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​, and no value for it is fixed, so the goal remains valid under any improvement of the constant.

Milestones

  1. Doob's weak-type inequality (1.5): λpP(f∗>λ)≤∥f∥pp\lambda^pP(f^*>\lambda)\le\|f\|_p^pλpP(f∗>λ)≤∥f∥pp​ for 1≤p<∞1\le p<\infty1≤p<∞.
  2. The distribution function inequality (21.2): for β>1\beta>1β>1, 0<δ<β−10<\delta<\beta-10<δ<β−1 and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0,
P(f∗>βλ, s(f)∨d∗≤δλ)≤δ2(β−δ−1)2P(f∗>λ).P\big(f^*>\beta\lambda,\ s(f)\vee d^*\le\delta\lambda\big)\le\frac{\delta^2}{(\beta-\delta-1)^2}P(f^*>\lambda).P(f∗>βλ, s(f)∨d∗≤δλ)≤(β−δ−1)2δ2​P(f∗>λ).
  1. Lemma 7.1, which turns an inequality of the form P(g>βλ, f≤δλ)≤εP(g>λ)P(g>\beta\lambda,\ f\le\delta\lambda)\le\varepsilon P(g>\lambda)P(g>βλ, f≤δλ)≤εP(g>λ) into EΦ(g)≤γη1−γεEΦ(f)E\Phi(g)\le\frac{\gamma\eta}{1-\gamma\varepsilon}E\Phi(f)EΦ(g)≤1−γεγη​EΦ(f).

Further statements

Two consequences recorded in §21 are included as draft theorems: (21.5), EΦ(f∗)≤cEΦ(s(f))+c∑kEΦ(∣dk∣)E\Phi(f^*)\le cE\Phi(s(f))+c\sum_kE\Phi(|d_k|)EΦ(f∗)≤cEΦ(s(f))+c∑k​EΦ(∣dk​∣), and the upper half (21.4) of Rosenthal's inequality for independent mean-zero sums.

Significance

The result. Theorem 21.1 controls the maximal function by predictable information (the conditional variances) plus the single largest jump, for every Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth, convex or not. The jump term cannot be dropped: the paper notes that an inequality of the form EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(s(f))E\Phi(S(f))\le cE\Phi(s(f))EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(s(f)) fails for general Φ\PhiΦ (Example 8.2 of Burkholder–Gundy 1970), so some account of large individual increments is necessary. Specialized to independent increments, s(f)s(f)s(f) becomes the deterministic (∑kEdk2)1/2(\sum_kEd_k^2)^{1/2}(∑k​Edk2​)1/2 and the theorem yields the upper half of Rosenthal's inequality. The martingale version applies wherever increments are dependent but their conditional variances are controlled, as in stochastic approximation.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge neither Theorem 21.1 nor Rosenthal's inequality has a machine-checked proof. Mathlib has Doob's maximal inequality and martingale convergence, but not the conditional square function, good-λ\lambdaλ inequalities, or Φ\PhiΦ-moment inequalities with moderate growth. A complete development produces all three, together with the stopping-time manipulations (a martingale started at one stopping time and stopped at another) that most of the paper's arguments reuse.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to use L2L^2L2 theory: Efn2=Esn2(f)E f_n^2=E s_n^2(f)Efn2​=Esn2​(f) for a square-integrable martingale, so f∗f^*f∗ and s(f)s(f)s(f) are comparable in L2L^2L2. This identity gives nothing for other Φ\PhiΦ, and in particular for Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda)=\lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp with p<2p<2p<2 or p>2p>2p>2 there is no direct comparison of f∗f^*f∗ and s(f)s(f)s(f): s(f)s(f)s(f) can be small while one increment is huge. A bound for general Φ\PhiΦ must therefore handle the event where a single increment dominates, and it must work for every level λ\lambdaλ simultaneously, using nothing about Φ\PhiΦ beyond monotonicity and the growth condition (6.1). Without convexity of Φ\PhiΦ, no Jensen- or duality-type argument applies.

Formalization scope

The Lean conventions committed to are:

  • f∗f^*f∗, d∗d^*d∗, s(f)s(f)s(f), ∥f∥p\|f\|_p∥f∥p​ and every expectation EΦ(⋅)E\Phi(\cdot)EΦ(⋅) take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞, lower Lebesgue integrals), so infinite values are meaningful and no junk value 000 arises.
  • The conditional expectations E(dk2∣Ak−1)E(d_k^2\mid\mathcal A_{k-1})E(dk2​∣Ak−1​) are Mathlib's extended conditional expectations condLExp, which need no integrability of dk2d_k^2dk2​. The Bochner conditional expectation or condVar would return 000 on non-integrable dk2d_k^2dk2​ and must not be substituted.
  • The filtration ℱ : Filtration ℕ _ is indexed from 000, with ℱ k =Ak=\mathcal A_k=Ak​; the kkk-th summand of s(f)s(f)s(f) pairs dk+1d_{k+1}dk+1​ with ℱ k. The paper states that fff is a martingale relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1,\mathcal A_2,\dotsA1​,A2​,…; the formalization states that fff is a Mathlib martingale, which also constrains the index-000 term. This is no restriction, since the extension f0:=E(f1∣A0)f_0:=E(f_1\mid\mathcal A_0)f0​:=E(f1​∣A0​) is always possible, and all definitions use the paper's f0=0f_0=0f0​=0, never Lean's f 0.
  • IsPhi Φ c imposes (6.1) for every x∈[0,∞]x\in[0,\infty]x∈[0,∞], which is equivalent to the paper's condition by continuity. The paper's hypothesis that Φ\PhiΦ is not identically zero is dropped, since every inequality is trivial for Φ≡0\Phi\equiv0Φ≡0.
  • "The choice of ccc depends only on c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​" is the quantifier order ∀c ∃C>0 ∀(Ω,P,A,f,Φ)\forall c\ \exists C>0\ \forall(\Omega,P,\mathcal A,f,\Phi)∀c ∃C>0 ∀(Ω,P,A,f,Φ), with Ω\OmegaΩ in Type. A constant chosen after fff or Φ\PhiΦ would trivialize the goal whenever the right-hand side is positive, and that formalization is ruled out.
  • Lemma 7.1 takes [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued f,gf,gf,g and nonnegative γ,η\gamma,\etaγ,η. Rosenthal's inequality assumes integrable, mutually independent dkd_kdk​ with mean zero.

Needed infrastructure, reusable beyond this mission: the conditional square function and its basic properties for stopped martingales; a good-λ\lambdaλ lemma for moderate-growth Φ\PhiΦ (Lemma 7.1, shared with the other missions of this series); and the layer-cake formula EΦ(h)=∫0∞P(h>λ) dΦ(λ)E\Phi(h)=\int_0^\infty P(h>\lambda)\,d\Phi(\lambda)EΦ(h)=∫0∞​P(h>λ)dΦ(λ) for a Lebesgue–Stieltjes Φ\PhiΦ. Proofs of the milestones, proofs of (21.5) and Rosenthal's inequality from the goal, and independent proofs of any of them are all welcome.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 1(1), 1973, 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176997023
  • D. L. Burkholder, R. F. Gundy, Extrapolation and interpolation of quasi-linear operators on martingales, Acta Mathematica 124, 1970, 249–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02394573
  • D. L. Burkholder, Inequalities for operators on martingales, Proc. International Congress of Mathematicians (Nice, 1970), vol. 2, Gauthier-Villars, 1971, 551–557.
  • D. L. Burkholder, B. J. Davis, R. F. Gundy, Integral inequalities for convex functions of operators on martingales, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probab. 2, 1972, 223–240.
  • H. P. Rosenthal, On the subspaces of LpL^pLp (p>2p>2p>2) spanned by sequences of independent random variables, Israel Journal of Mathematics 8, 1970, 273–303. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02771562
  • J. L. Doob, Stochastic Processes, Wiley, New York, 1953.
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Reflected Solutions of Backward SDE's, and Related Obstacle Problems for PDE's 1: The Reflected BSDE Has a Unique Square-Integrable SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) prescribes the value ξ\xiξ of a process at a terminal time TTT and asks for an adapted process YYY that reaches it while following a given drift fff. Adaptedness forces a second unknown ZZZ, the integrand of a martingale term. Pardoux and Peng (1990) proved that Lipschitz BSDEs are well posed. BSDEs then became a standard language for stochastic control, for pricing and hedging in mathematical finance, and for probabilistic representations of semilinear parabolic PDEs.

Many such problems carry a constraint. The value of an American option must stay above its exercise payoff, and the value of an optimal stopping problem must stay above the reward for stopping now. El Karoui, Kapoudjian, Pardoux, Peng and Quenez (1997) introduced the reflected BSDE: the solution is kept above a given obstacle SSS by an increasing process KKK that acts only when the constraint binds. This mission formalizes the paper's first main result, existence and uniqueness of the reflected BSDE, together with the estimates its proof rests on.

Setting

Let B=(B1,…,Bd)B=(B^1,\dots,B^d)B=(B1,…,Bd) be a ddd-dimensional standard Brownian motion on a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P). Let (Ft)(\mathcal F_t)(Ft​) be its natural filtration, augmented by the PPP-null sets. Fix a horizon TTT. The data are:

  • a terminal value ξ\xiξ, FT\mathcal F_TFT​-measurable with Eξ2<∞E\xi^2<\inftyEξ2<∞ (condition (i));
  • a coefficient f(t,ω,y,z)f(t,\omega,y,z)f(t,ω,y,z) such that f(⋅,y,z)f(\cdot,y,z)f(⋅,y,z) is progressively measurable with E∫0Tf(t,y,z)2dt<∞E\int_0^Tf(t,y,z)^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​f(t,y,z)2dt<∞ (ii), and ∣f(t,y,z)−f(t,y′,z′)∣≤K(∣y−y′∣+∣z−z′∣)|f(t,y,z)-f(t,y',z')|\le K(|y-y'|+|z-z'|)∣f(t,y,z)−f(t,y′,z′)∣≤K(∣y−y′∣+∣z−z′∣) almost surely for some K>0K>0K>0 (iii);
  • an obstacle SSS, continuous and progressively measurable, with Esup⁡t≤T(St+)2<∞E\sup_{t\le T}(S_t^+)^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​(St+​)2<∞ (iv),

with the standing assumption ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ a.s.

A solution is a triple (Y,Z,K)(Y,Z,K)(Y,Z,K) of progressively measurable processes, valued in R\mathbb RR, Rd\mathbb R^dRd and R+\mathbb R_+R+​, such that

Yt=ξ+∫tTf(s,Ys,Zs) ds+KT−Kt−∫tT(Zs,dBs),0≤t≤T(vi),Y_t=\xi+\int_t^Tf(s,Y_s,Z_s)\,ds+K_T-K_t-\int_t^T(Z_s,dB_s),\qquad 0\le t\le T\quad\text{(vi)},Yt​=ξ+∫tT​f(s,Ys​,Zs​)ds+KT​−Kt​−∫tT​(Zs​,dBs​),0≤t≤T(vi),

Yt≥StY_t\ge S_tYt​≥St​ (vii), and KKK is continuous and nondecreasing with K0=0K_0=0K0​=0 and ∫0T(Yt−St) dKt=0\int_0^T(Y_t-S_t)\,dK_t=0∫0T​(Yt​−St​)dKt​=0 (viii). Condition (viii) says that KKK increases only when YYY touches SSS. The integrability conditions are (v), E∫0T∣Zt∣2dt<∞E\int_0^T|Z_t|^2dt<\inftyE∫0T​∣Zt​∣2dt<∞, and (v′), Esup⁡t≤TYt2<∞E\sup_{t\le T}Y_t^2<\inftyEsupt≤T​Yt2​<∞ and EKT2<∞EK_T^2<\inftyEKT2​<∞.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2

Under (i)–(iv) and ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ, the reflected BSDE with (v)–(viii) has a solution, and any two solutions satisfying (v)–(viii) coincide:

∃ (Y,Z,K) solving (v)–(viii),(Y,Z,K),(Y′,Z′,K′) solving (v)–(viii) ⇒ Y≡Y′, K≡K′, Z=Z′ dP⊗dt-a.e.\exists\,(Y,Z,K)\ \text{solving (v)–(viii)},\qquad (Y,Z,K),(Y',Z',K')\ \text{solving (v)–(viii)}\ \Rightarrow\ Y\equiv Y',\ K\equiv K',\ Z=Z'\ dP\otimes dt\text{-a.e.}∃(Y,Z,K) solving (v)–(viii),(Y,Z,K),(Y′,Z′,K′) solving (v)–(viii) ⇒ Y≡Y′, K≡K′, Z=Z′ dP⊗dt-a.e.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma 2.1: the deterministic Skorohod problem y=x+k≥0y=x+k\ge0y=x+k≥0 has a unique solution, with kt=sup⁡s≤txs−k_t=\sup_{s\le t}x_s^-kt​=sups≤t​xs−​.
  2. Proposition 2.2: KT−Kt=sup⁡t≤u≤T(ξ+∫uTf ds−∫uT(Zs,dBs)−Su)−K_T-K_t=\sup_{t\le u\le T}\big(\xi+\int_u^Tf\,ds-\int_u^T(Z_s,dB_s)-S_u\big)^-KT​−Kt​=supt≤u≤T​(ξ+∫uT​fds−∫uT​(Zs​,dBs​)−Su​)−.
  3. Corollary 3.3 (α): (v) implies (v′).
  4. Proposition 2.3: Yt=ess sup⁡v∈TtE[∫tvf ds+Sv1{v<T}+ξ1{v=T}∣Ft]Y_t=\operatorname{ess\,sup}_{v\in\mathcal T_t}E\big[\int_t^vf\,ds+S_v1_{\{v<T\}}+\xi1_{\{v=T\}}\mid\mathcal F_t\big]Yt​=esssupv∈Tt​​E[∫tv​fds+Sv​1{v<T}​+ξ1{v=T}​∣Ft​].
  5. Proposition 3.5: the a priori estimate E(sup⁡Y2+∫∣Z∣2+KT2)≤C E(ξ2+∫f(t,0,0)2+sup⁡(S+)2)E(\sup Y^2+\int|Z|^2+K_T^2)\le C\,E(\xi^2+\int f(t,0,0)^2+\sup(S^+)^2)E(supY2+∫∣Z∣2+KT2​)≤CE(ξ2+∫f(t,0,0)2+sup(S+)2).
  6. Proposition 3.6: the stability estimate in (ξ,f,S)(\xi,f,S)(ξ,f,S).
  7. Corollary 3.7: uniqueness under (v).
  8. Proposition 5.1: well-posedness of the backward reflection problem, the case where f=f(t)f=f(t)f=f(t) does not depend on (y,z)(y,z)(y,z).

Significance

Theorem 5.2 is the foundation of the theory of reflected BSDEs. With it, the solution gives the value of a mixed optimal stopping problem (Proposition 2.3). For concave fff it gives the value of a combined stopping and control problem, and in a Markovian setting it gives the unique viscosity solution of the obstacle problem for a semilinear parabolic PDE. The other two missions of this series formalize those consequences, and both use the existence and uniqueness proved here. The model has many later extensions (two obstacles and Dynkin games, jumps, quadratic growth), and the pricing of American options under constrained or nonlinear dynamics is formulated through it.

The result is classical and fully proved in the paper. As far as is known, no machine-checked proof of existence for a (reflected or plain) BSDE exists. The remaining work is the formalization of the known proof: the Skorohod lemma, the optimal-stopping representation, the a priori and stability estimates, and the Picard contraction. The milestones are reusable well beyond this paper, in particular the Skorohod lemma, the estimates, and the identification of the reflected solution with a Snell envelope.

Difficulty

The natural first idea is to treat (vi) as a forward equation and reflect it pathwise with the Skorohod map, as in forward reflected SDEs. This fails: the pathwise reflection of a backward equation produces a process KKK that is not adapted (Proposition 2.2 gives KKK as a supremum over the future). The adaptedness of (Y,K)(Y,K)(Y,K) comes only from the choice of ZZZ, i.e. from a martingale representation. Any construction must produce ZZZ and KKK together, and the estimates must control the contribution of KKK using only the minimality condition (viii). In the formal setting, Mathlib has Brownian motion, filtrations, stopping times and conditional expectations, but no stochastic integral (the platform definition Peng1990.SMP.IsItoIntegral supplies one, without any calculus), no Itô formula, no martingale representation, no Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequality and no Snell envelope theory in continuous time.

Formalization scope

The Lean development builds on the published definitions Peng1990.SMP.Stochastic: standard ddd-dimensional Brownian motion, H2\mathbb H^2H2 as L2F, and the L2L^2L2 Itô integral IsItoIntegral. It commits to the following conventions:

  • time is ℝ≥0, with T:R≥0T:\mathbb R_{\ge0}T:R≥0​, and only t≤Tt\le Tt≤T matters;
  • the filtration is the natural Brownian filtration joined with the σ\sigmaσ-algebra of PPP-null sets;
  • H2\mathbb H^2H2 uses progressive rather than predictable measurability;
  • ∣z∣|z|∣z∣ is the Euclidean norm on Rd\mathbb R^dRd;
  • the stochastic integral is the L2L^2L2 Itô integral with a version continuous on [0,T][0,T][0,T]. Since that integral is only defined for Z∈H2Z\in\mathbb H^2Z∈H2, the predicate for (vi)–(viii) contains (v), which is a recorded deviation for Proposition 2.2;
  • (vi)–(viii) hold almost surely, simultaneously for all t∈[0,T]t\in[0,T]t∈[0,T];
  • the integral ∫(Y−S) dK\int(Y-S)\,dK∫(Y−S)dK is taken against the Stieltjes measure of the path of KKK;
  • moments are lower Lebesgue integrals in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞];
  • the essential supremum is a predicate on the candidate;
  • uniqueness of ZZZ is dP⊗dtdP\otimes dtdP⊗dt-almost everywhere.

Proposition 2.3 additionally assumes S∈S2S\in\mathcal S^2S∈S2, which the paper's Remark 3.2 allows without loss of generality, so that every conditional expectation in it is of an integrable variable. The constants of Propositions 3.5 and 3.6 are quantified before the Brownian dimension, probability space, data and solution, and depend only on (T,K)(T,K)(T,K); a per-solution constant would make both statements trivial. The condition ST≤ξS_T\le\xiST​≤ξ is part of every statement, since without it no solution exists. Proposition 3.1 and Corollary 3.3 (β) are not posed.

A complete proof needs Itô's formula for Y2Y^2Y2, the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy inequality, Gronwall's lemma, martingale representation for the Brownian filtration, and the Snell envelope with its Doob–Meyer decomposition. Each of these is reusable on its own, and contributions of any of them are welcome, as are proofs of individual milestones.

Selected references

  • N. El Karoui, C. Kapoudjian, É. Pardoux, S. Peng, M. C. Quenez, Reflected solutions of backward SDE's, and related obstacle problems for PDE's, Ann. Probab. 25(2), 1997, 702–737. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1024404416
  • É. Pardoux, S. Peng, Adapted solution of a backward stochastic differential equation, Systems & Control Letters 14, 1990, 55–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6911(90)90082-6
  • N. El Karoui, S. Peng, M. C. Quenez, Backward stochastic differential equations in finance, Math. Finance 7(1), 1997, 1–71. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9965.00022
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AnalysisHarmonic AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 6: For a Nonnegative Martingale, EΦ(S(f)) ≤ c·EΦ(f*) for Every Φ of Moderate GrowthResearch Paper

Motivation

The square function S(f)=(∑kdk2)1/2S(f)=\big(\sum_k d_k^2\big)^{1/2}S(f)=(∑k​dk2​)1/2 of a martingale fff with differences dkd_kdk​ and its maximal function f∗=sup⁡n∣fn∣f^*=\sup_n|f_n|f∗=supn​∣fn​∣ are the two basic size measures of a martingale. Inequalities comparing them, EΦ(S(f))≤c EΦ(f∗)E\Phi(S(f))\le c\,E\Phi(f^*)EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(f∗) and the reverse, are used throughout probability and harmonic analysis: they control stochastic sums by their quadratic variation, give LpL^pLp bounds for martingale transforms, and transfer to singular integrals and area integrals in classical analysis.

D. L. Burkholder's 1971 Wald Memorial Lectures, published as Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales (Ann. Probability 1 (1973) 19–42), organise these comparisons around distribution function (good-λ\lambdaλ) inequalities. Chapter IV of the paper begins with "some of the consequences of nonnegativity". This mission formalizes one of them: for a nonnegative martingale, the square function is controlled by the maximal function in every moment of moderate growth, convex or not.

A short history of the comparison:

  • 1966: Burkholder proves cp∥S(f)∥p≤∥f∥p≤Cp∥S(f)∥pc_p\|S(f)\|_p\le\|f\|_p\le C_p\|S(f)\|_pcp​∥S(f)∥p​≤∥f∥p​≤Cp​∥S(f)∥p​ for 1<p<∞1<p<\infty1<p<∞ (Martingale transforms, Ann. Math. Statist. 37).
  • 1970: Burkholder and Gundy introduce good-λ\lambdaλ inequalities and extend the comparison of S(f)S(f)S(f) and f∗f^*f∗ to 0<p<∞0<p<\infty0<p<∞ under regularity conditions (Acta Math. 124); Davis proves the case p=1p=1p=1 for all martingales (Israel J. Math. 8).
  • 1972: Burkholder, Davis and Gundy prove EΦ(S(f))≍EΦ(f∗)E\Phi(S(f))\asymp E\Phi(f^*)EΦ(S(f))≍EΦ(f∗) for every convex Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth and every martingale (Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. 2, 223–240). The comparison fails for general martingales when Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda)=\lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp with 0<p<10<p<10<p<1, because of large jumps (Example 8.1 of that paper; recalled in §10 of the 1973 paper, p. 29).
  • 1973: Theorem 18.3 of the present paper shows that for nonnegative martingales one direction, EΦ(S(f))≤c EΦ(f∗)E\Phi(S(f))\le c\,E\Phi(f^*)EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(f∗), holds for every Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth.

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space and A0⊆A1⊆⋯\mathcal A_0\subseteq\mathcal A_1\subseteq\cdotsA0​⊆A1​⊆⋯ a filtration. A nonnegative martingale is a sequence f=(f1,f2,… )f=(f_1,f_2,\dots)f=(f1​,f2​,…) of integrable random variables with fn≥0f_n\ge0fn​≥0, fnf_nfn​ measurable with respect to An\mathcal A_nAn​, and E(fn+1∣An)=fnE(f_{n+1}\mid\mathcal A_n)=f_nE(fn+1​∣An​)=fn​. With f0=0f_0=0f0​=0, its difference sequence is dk=fk−fk−1d_k=f_k-f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​, k≥1k\ge1k≥1. The objects compared are

S(f)=(∑k=1∞dk2)1/2∈[0,∞],f∗=sup⁡n≥1∣fn∣∈[0,∞].S(f)=\Big(\sum_{k=1}^\infty d_k^2\Big)^{1/2}\in[0,\infty],\qquad f^*=\sup_{n\ge1}|f_n|\in[0,\infty].S(f)=(k=1∑∞​dk2​)1/2∈[0,∞],f∗=n≥1sup​∣fn​∣∈[0,∞].

In Lean these are sqFn f and maxFn f; the finite versions Sn(f)S_n(f)Sn​(f) and fn∗f_n^*fn∗​ are sqFnN f n and maxFnN f n.

For λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, the exit time μ=inf⁡{n≥1:∣fn∣>λ}\mu=\inf\{n\ge1:|f_n|>\lambda\}μ=inf{n≥1:∣fn​∣>λ} (with inf⁡∅=∞\inf\emptyset=\inftyinf∅=∞) is exitTime f λ, and Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f), the square function of fff stopped just before it first exceeds λ\lambdaλ, is sqFnAt f (exitTime f λ - 1), with S0(f)=0S_0(f)=0S0​(f)=0 and S∞(f)=S(f)S_\infty(f)=S(f)S∞​(f)=S(f).

A function Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞]\Phi:[0,\infty]\to[0,\infty]Φ:[0,∞]→[0,∞] satisfies the conditions of Section 7 (IsPhi Φ c) if it is non-decreasing and continuous, Φ(0)=0\Phi(0)=0Φ(0)=0, and it has moderate growth:

Φ(2λ)≤c Φ(λ),λ>0.(6.1)\Phi(2\lambda)\le c\,\Phi(\lambda),\qquad\lambda>0.\tag{6.1}Φ(2λ)≤cΦ(λ),λ>0.(6.1)

The powers Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda)=\lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp, 0<p<∞0<p<\infty0<p<∞, are the model examples.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 18.3 (p. 36)

For every growth constant c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​ there is ccc, depending only on c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​, such that for every nonnegative martingale fff and every Φ\PhiΦ satisfying the conditions of Section 7,

EΦ(S(f))≤c EΦ(f∗).E\Phi(S(f))\le c\,E\Phi(f^*).EΦ(S(f))≤cEΦ(f∗).

The goal fixes no value of the constant, so it is the statement that survives any later improvement of ccc.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2.1 (p. 21): for fff a martingale or nonnegative submartingale with ∥f∥1<∞\|f\|_1<\infty∥f∥1​<∞,
∥Sμ−1(f)∥22+∥fμ−1∥22≤2Efμfμ−1≤2λ∥f∥1,\|S_{\mu-1}(f)\|_2^2+\|f_{\mu-1}\|_2^2\le2Ef_\mu f_{\mu-1}\le2\lambda\|f\|_1,∥Sμ−1​(f)∥22​+∥fμ−1​∥22​≤2Efμ​fμ−1​≤2λ∥f∥1​,

with equality on the left for martingales. 2. (18.5) (p. 37): for a nonnegative martingale and a>0a>0a>0,

∫a+λ2∞P(Sμ−12(f)>s) ds≤2λ2P(Sμ−12(f)>a).\int_{a+\lambda^2}^\infty P\big(S^2_{\mu-1}(f)>s\big)\,ds\le2\lambda^2P\big(S^2_{\mu-1}(f)>a\big).∫a+λ2∞​P(Sμ−12​(f)>s)ds≤2λ2P(Sμ−12​(f)>a).
  1. The stopped inclusion (proof of Theorem 18.2, p. 37): with μ\muμ the exit time above δλ\delta\lambdaδλ,
P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ)≤P(Sμ−1(f)>βλ).P\big(S(f)>\beta\lambda,\ f^*\le\delta\lambda\big)\le P\big(S_{\mu-1}(f)>\beta\lambda\big).P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ)≤P(Sμ−1​(f)>βλ).
  1. Theorem 18.2 (p. 35): for β>1\beta>1β>1, 0<δ<(β2−1)1/20<\delta<(\beta^2-1)^{1/2}0<δ<(β2−1)1/2 and a nonnegative martingale,
P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ)≤2δ2β2−δ2−1 P(S(f)>λ),λ>0.P\big(S(f)>\beta\lambda,\ f^*\le\delta\lambda\big)\le\frac{2\delta^2}{\beta^2-\delta^2-1}\,P\big(S(f)>\lambda\big),\qquad\lambda>0.P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ)≤β2−δ2−12δ2​P(S(f)>λ),λ>0.
  1. Lemma 7.1 (p. 26): a good-λ\lambdaλ inequality P(g>βλ,f≤δλ)≤εP(g>λ)P(g>\beta\lambda,f\le\delta\lambda)\le\varepsilon P(g>\lambda)P(g>βλ,f≤δλ)≤εP(g>λ), with Φ(βλ)≤γΦ(λ)\Phi(\beta\lambda)\le\gamma\Phi(\lambda)Φ(βλ)≤γΦ(λ), Φ(δ−1λ)≤ηΦ(λ)\Phi(\delta^{-1}\lambda)\le\eta\Phi(\lambda)Φ(δ−1λ)≤ηΦ(λ) and γε<1\gamma\varepsilon<1γε<1, gives EΦ(g)≤γη1−γεEΦ(f)E\Phi(g)\le\frac{\gamma\eta}{1-\gamma\varepsilon}E\Phi(f)EΦ(g)≤1−γεγη​EΦ(f).

Significance

The result. Theorem 18.3 removes the convexity hypothesis from one half of the Burkholder–Davis–Gundy comparison, at the price of nonnegativity. It covers the concave powers λp\lambda^pλp, 0<p<10<p<10<p<1, and every other Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth, including those that are neither convex nor concave. Nonnegative martingales are the natural objects in likelihood ratios, branching processes and Radon–Nikodym densities. For Φ(λ)=λp\Phi(\lambda)=\lambda^pΦ(λ)=λp, 1<p<∞1<p<\infty1<p<∞, the paper derives from Theorem 18.2 and Lemma 7.1 the bound ∥S(f)∥p≤cp1/2∥f∗∥p\|S(f)\|_p\le cp^{1/2}\|f^*\|_p∥S(f)∥p​≤cp1/2∥f∗∥p​ with the order p1/2p^{1/2}p1/2 in the constant (p. 37). Theorem 18.2 is the distribution function inequality behind the theorem and is itself a sharper statement than any moment inequality it yields.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof, and Mathlib has neither the martingale square function nor any good-λ\lambdaλ machinery. A formalization produces reusable components: the square function and stopped square function of a discrete martingale, Lemma 2.1, and Lemma 7.1, which is shared by every Φ\PhiΦ inequality in the paper and many outside it.

Difficulty

For general martingales, a good-λ\lambdaλ inequality bounding P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ)P(S(f)>\beta\lambda,\ f^*\le\delta\lambda)P(S(f)>βλ, f∗≤δλ) by a small multiple of P(S(f)>λ)P(S(f)>\lambda)P(S(f)>λ) is false: a single large jump dkd_kdk​ can make S(f)S(f)S(f) large while the martingale is stopped before f∗f^*f∗ grows, which is why the general results need convexity or a jump bound. The first idea, transferring the convex case of Burkholder–Davis–Gundy, does not work for concave Φ\PhiΦ: the convex proof uses convexity of Φ\PhiΦ in an essential way (Lemma 16.1 of the paper), and for general martingales the conclusion itself is false for λp\lambda^pλp, p<1p<1p<1. A bound on ESμ−12(f)E S^2_{\mu-1}(f)ESμ−12​(f) alone, as in Lemma 2.1, is also not enough; the good-λ\lambdaλ inequality needs control of the tail of Sμ−12(f)S^2_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−12​(f) above every level aaa, which is where nonnegativity enters. Passing from the distribution inequality to all Φ\PhiΦ at once also requires care with infinite values of S(f)S(f)S(f) and f∗f^*f∗.

Formalization scope

  • Martingales. Mathlib's Martingale f ℱ P with f : ℕ → Ω → ℝ and ℱ : Filtration ℕ mΩ, ℱ k = 𝒜_k. Statements read f n only for n≥1n\ge1n≥1, with the paper's f0=0f_0=0f0​=0; Mathlib's additional constraint at index 000 is no restriction, since any martingale relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1,\mathcal A_2,\dotsA1​,A2​,… extends to one by f0:=E(f1∣A0)f_0:=E(f_1\mid\mathcal A_0)f0​:=E(f1​∣A0​). Nonnegativity is "almost surely, for n≥1n\ge1n≥1".
  • Values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. S(f)S(f)S(f), f∗f^*f∗, Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f), Φ\PhiΦ and all expectations EΦ(⋅)E\Phi(\cdot)EΦ(⋅) are ℝ≥0∞-valued (∫⁻), so both sides of the goal may be infinite and no junk value 000 arises from a non-integrable function.
  • Φ\PhiΦ. IsPhi Φ c imposes the growth condition at every x∈[0,∞]x\in[0,\infty]x∈[0,∞], which is equivalent to (6.1) for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The paper's exclusion of Φ≡0\Phi\equiv0Φ≡0 is dropped (the inequalities are trivial then). No convexity is assumed anywhere in this mission.
  • Constants. The goal quantifies ∀ c, ∃ C > 0, ∀ Ω P ℱ f Φ, with Ω\OmegaΩ in Type: the constant may depend on c(6.1)c_{(6.1)}c(6.1)​ only, never on Φ\PhiΦ, fff or PPP. A constant chosen after the data would make the goal trivial whenever its right-hand side is positive; that reading is ruled out by the quantifier order.
  • Theorem 18.2 states δ<(β2−1)1/2\delta<(\beta^2-1)^{1/2}δ<(β2−1)1/2 with Real.sqrt; with δ>0\delta>0δ>0 this is β2−δ2−1>0\beta^2-\delta^2-1>0β2−δ2−1>0.
  • Lemma 2.1 takes the almost-everywhere limit f∞f_\inftyf∞​ as a supplied function with a convergence hypothesis; μ−1\mu-1μ−1 is truncated subtraction on {1,…,∞}\{1,\dots,\infty\}{1,…,∞} with ∞−1=∞\infty-1=\infty∞−1=∞.
  • Lemma 7.1 allows f,gf,gf,g to take the value ∞\infty∞ (needed for g=S(f)g=S(f)g=S(f), f=f∗f=f^*f=f∗) and takes γ,η≥0\gamma,\eta\ge0γ,η≥0, which loses nothing since (7.2) forces γ,η≥1\gamma,\eta\ge1γ,η≥1 unless Φ≡0\Phi\equiv0Φ≡0.

The shared definitions file declares the series-wide layer (including s(f)s(f)s(f), convexity and concavity predicates used by other missions of the series). Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are auxiliary lemmas on the stopped square function, on the Stieltjes representation EΦ(h)=∫0∞P(h>λ) dΦ(λ)E\Phi(h)=\int_0^\infty P(h>\lambda)\,d\Phi(\lambda)EΦ(h)=∫0∞​P(h>λ)dΦ(λ), and on the layer-cake formula in ℝ≥0∞.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution function inequalities for martingales, Ann. Probability 1 (1973), 19–42. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176997023
  • D. L. Burkholder, Martingale transforms, Ann. Math. Statist. 37 (1966), 1494–1504. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699141
  • D. L. Burkholder and R. F. Gundy, Extrapolation and interpolation of quasi-linear operators on martingales, Acta Math. 124 (1970), 249–304. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02394573
  • B. Davis, On the integrability of the martingale square function, Israel J. Math. 8 (1970), 187–190. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02771313
  • D. L. Burkholder, B. J. Davis and R. F. Gundy, Integral inequalities for convex functions of operators on martingales, Proc. Sixth Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Prob. 2 (1972), 223–240. https://doi.org/10.1525/9780520423671-018
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AnalysisHarmonic AnalysisProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales 5: A Nonnegative Martingale's Square Function, Stopped Before |f_n| Exceeds λ, Is Exponentially Square IntegrableResearch Paper

Motivation

Martingale estimates describe how a process built from successive, conditionally fair increments can fluctuate. A basic object is its square function: the square root of the sum of the squared increments along a sample path. Square functions are useful because they record accumulated variation even when positive and negative increments cancel in the martingale itself. Burkholder's 1973 lectures study the distributions of square functions and maximal functions and compare their moments under several kinds of hypotheses (Burkholder 1973, §1).

The present mission concerns a sharper phenomenon for a nonnegative martingale. If the process is stopped just before its absolute value first exceeds a fixed threshold, the resulting square function has an exponential moment of its square. The distinction matters: a second moment controls one scale of variation, while an exponential square moment controls a range of larger deviations. Burkholder states the second-moment stopped estimate in Lemma 2.1 and the exponential estimate in Theorem 18.1 (Burkholder 1973, pp. 21, 35).

Setting

Let (Ω,A,P)(\Omega,\mathcal A,P)(Ω,A,P) be a probability space with an increasing sequence of sub-σ\sigmaσ-fields A0,A1,…\mathcal A_0,\mathcal A_1,\ldotsA0​,A1​,…. A martingale f=(fn)n≥1f=(f_n)_{n\ge1}f=(fn​)n≥1​ is observed relative to A1,A2,…\mathcal A_1,\mathcal A_2,\ldotsA1​,A2​,…. Burkholder sets f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 for the purpose of defining its difference sequence: d1=f1d_1=f_1d1​=f1​ and dk=fk−fk−1d_k=f_k-f_{k-1}dk​=fk​−fk−1​ for k≥2k\ge2k≥2. For each n≥0n\ge0n≥0 let

Sn(f)=(∑k=1ndk2)1/2,S(f)=sup⁡n≥0Sn(f),S0(f)=0.S_n(f)=\left(\sum_{k=1}^{n}d_k^2\right)^{1/2}, \qquad S(f)=\sup_{n\ge0}S_n(f), \qquad S_0(f)=0.Sn​(f)=(k=1∑n​dk2​)1/2,S(f)=n≥0sup​Sn​(f),S0​(f)=0.

Fix λ>0\lambda>0λ>0. The exit time is μ=inf⁡{n≥1:∣fn∣>λ}\mu=\inf\{n\ge1:|f_n|>\lambda\}μ=inf{n≥1:∣fn​∣>λ}, with μ=∞\mu=\inftyμ=∞ if the set is empty. The quantity in this mission is Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f). On a path with μ=n<∞\mu=n<\inftyμ=n<∞ it includes differences only through n−1n-1n−1; on a path with μ=∞\mu=\inftyμ=∞ it is S(f)S(f)S(f). Nonnegative means fn≥0f_n\ge0fn​≥0 almost surely for every n≥1n\ge1n≥1. These conventions are those of §§1, 2 and 18 of the paper (Burkholder 1973, pp. 20–21, 35).

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 18.1. For every nonnegative martingale and every λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f) is finite almost everywhere and

Eexp⁡(tSμ−1(f)2)≤11−3tλ2,0<t<13λ2.E\exp\left(tS_{\mu-1}(f)^2\right) \le \frac{1}{1-3t\lambda^2}, \qquad 0<t<\frac{1}{3\lambda^2}.Eexp(tSμ−1​(f)2)≤1−3tλ21​,0<t<3λ21​.

The constant 333 and the full range of ttt are part of the target; replacing the claim by the existence of one positive exponential parameter would lose the paper's quantitative conclusion (Burkholder 1973, Theorem 18.1, p. 35).

The milestone path contains four statements from the paper. Lemma 2.1 bounds the second moment of the stopped square function and stopped value. Display (18.5) bounds an integrated tail past a+λ2a+\lambda^2a+λ2 by 2λ22\lambda^22λ2 times the tail at aaa. The paragraph following it gives the full integrated-tail bound with 3λ23\lambda^23λ2. Lemma 18.1 converts an integrated-tail condition for a nonnegative measurable function into an exponential moment estimate. The milestone order follows their role in Theorem 18.1, while the tail-to-moment lemma also stands independently of martingales (Burkholder 1973, pp. 21, 36–37).

Significance

The theorem gives a uniform quantitative bound for the square function accumulated before a nonnegative martingale crosses λ\lambdaλ. It strengthens the L2L^2L2 conclusion available from Lemma 2.1 under L1L^1L1 boundedness. The tail-to-moment lemma has a second use later in the paper: Burkholder invokes it for the square function of a martingale satisfying a bounded conditional-tail condition in Theorem 19.1 (Burkholder 1973, §§18–19).

The mathematical result is proved in the paper. This mission asks for a machine-checked development of its precise statements. That development would make the stopped square function, its exit-time convention, the integrated-tail estimates and the exponential-moment implication available as individually reusable objects. No machine-checked proof of these statements is known on Prove2Me; the related martingale inequalities already there (Doob's LpL^pLp maximal inequality, an LpL^pLp bound for Robbins–Monro noise sums) have different data and conclusions.

Difficulty

The first obvious estimate, Lemma 2.1, gives a second moment but does not by itself give an exponential moment. The exit time also depends on the same martingale path whose variation is being measured, so a fixed-time estimate does not immediately describe Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f). Nonnegativity is essential to the stronger statement: the paper contrasts the general L1L^1L1-bounded case, where it states only L2L^2L2 control, with the nonnegative case, where it asserts exponential square integrability (Burkholder 1973, pp. 21, 35).

Formalization scope

Lean uses Mathlib's filtration and martingale predicates for a real-valued process indexed by natural numbers. The paper starts at index 111 and fixes f0=0f_0=0f0​=0 only in its difference sequence. Mathlib's martingale predicate also constrains an auxiliary value at index 000; any paper martingale can be extended there by a conditional expectation. Every square function and exit time in this mission ignores that auxiliary value. Nonnegativity is almost everywhere at each positive index. The convergence value f∞f_\inftyf∞​ in Lemma 2.1 is supplied with an almost-everywhere convergence hypothesis, recording explicitly the convergence that follows from the paper's L1L^1L1 boundedness assumption.

Square functions, norms, tail probabilities and their nonnegative integrals take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. This represents a genuinely infinite square function without a default real-valued supremum. At μ=∞\mu=\inftyμ=∞, subtraction of one in N∞\mathbb N_\inftyN∞​ leaves ∞\infty∞, as the paper intends. The exponential-moment statements assert almost-everywhere finiteness before converting an extended value to a real exponent; otherwise the conversion of ∞\infty∞ to zero could make a false bound look true. The threshold λ\lambdaλ is positive, and the same λ\lambdaλ appears in the stopping time and in every bound.

The shared definition layer also records the paper's maximal function, LpL^pLp norm, conditional square function and class of functions Φ\PhiΦ of moderate growth for reuse across this nine-mission series. The conditional square function uses generalized nonnegative conditional expectation. Its Φ\PhiΦ condition includes the endpoints 000 and ∞\infty∞; these add no restriction under the paper's continuity and zero-at-zero conventions. The zero function Φ\PhiΦ is allowed, since the inequalities in which it appears then hold trivially. Contributions establishing the four milestones, the needed stopping-time measurability facts, or the goal theorem are within scope. A version that assumes the desired exponential moment, or replaces Sμ−1(f)S_{\mu-1}(f)Sμ−1​(f) by a fixed-time square function, would miss the target.

Selected references

  • D. L. Burkholder, Distribution Function Inequalities for Martingales, The Annals of Probability 1(1), 1973, pp. 19–42. DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176997023.
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Residual Life Time at Great Age 6: For 0 < ξ < α, Residual Life Attraction to Γ_α Is Equivalent to a Finite ξ-th Moment and E((X/t)^ξ | X > t) → (1 − ξ/α)^{−1}Research Paper

Motivation

Actuaries, reliability engineers and demographers ask how much longer an item or a person will live given that it has already survived to a great age ttt. For a lifetime XXX with distribution function FFF, this is the law of the residual life time X−tX - tX−t given X>tX > tX>t, and the question is what this law looks like as t→∞t \to \inftyt→∞. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974) 792–804) determined all possible limit laws of the suitably normed residual life time and the distribution functions attracted to each. When only a scale normalization is allowed, the possible continuous limits are the exponential law and the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, the counterparts in residual-life theory of the Gumbel and Fréchet laws of extreme value theory. Both theories rest on Karamata's theory of regular variation (de Haan 1970).

Section 5 of the paper restates the domain of attraction of Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ in terms of moments: weak convergence of the scaled residual life times is equivalent to convergence of a single conditional moment of the scaled residual life. For an exponential limit the analogous link between weak convergence and first moments had been studied by Meilijson (1972). Moment conditions of this form underlie the mean-excess and Hill-type diagnostics used in heavy-tail statistics and in the peaks-over-threshold method (Pickands 1975).

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ and distribution function FFF, and write R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x} for its tail. The standing assumption is F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every real xxx, i.e. R(x)>0R(x) > 0R(x)>0: XXX has no finite upper endpoint, and conditioning on {X>t}\{X > t\}{X>t} makes sense for every ttt.

For t>0t > 0t>0, the conditional distribution function of X/tX/tX/t given X>tX > tX>t is

P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=P{t<X≤xt}P{X>t},P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \frac{P\{t < X \le xt\}}{P\{X > t\}},P{tX​≤x​X>t}=P{X>t}P{t<X≤xt}​,

which vanishes for x≤1x \le 1x≤1. For a real exponent ξ\xiξ, the conditional ξ\xiξ-th moment is

E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=1P{X>t}∫(t,∞)(yt)ξdF(y).E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \frac{1}{P\{X>t\}}\int_{(t,\infty)} \Big(\frac{y}{t}\Big)^{\xi} dF(y).E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=P{X>t}1​∫(t,∞)​(ty​)ξdF(y).

For α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the limit law Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ is Γα(x)=1−(1+x)−α\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 1 - (1+x)^{-\alpha}Γα​(x)=1−(1+x)−α for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 and Γα(x)=0\Gamma_\alpha(x) = 0Γα​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0. The shifted function Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) equals 1−x−α1 - x^{-\alpha}1−x−α for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1: the Pareto law of index α\alphaα on [1,∞)[1,\infty)[1,∞). The distribution function FFF is in the domain of residual life time attraction Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) when

lim⁡t→∞P{Xt≤x ∣ X>t}=Γα(x−1)for all x>0.\lim_{t\to\infty} P\Big\{\frac{X}{t} \le x \,\Big|\, X > t\Big\} = \Gamma_\alpha(x-1) \qquad \text{for all } x > 0 .t→∞lim​P{tX​≤x​X>t}=Γα​(x−1)for all x>0.

In Lean the tail is BalkemaDeHaan.LimitTypes.tail; the scaled conditional distribution and moment are BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.scaledResidualCDF and BalkemaDeHaan.Moments.condMoment. The limit law is BalkemaDeHaan.ParetoBounds.GammaLaw.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8(a), corrected

For F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx and 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α:

F∈Dr(Γα)  ⟺  ∫0∞yξ dF(y)<∞  and  lim⁡t→∞E((Xt)ξ ∣ X>t)=(1−ξα)−1.F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) \iff \int_0^\infty y^\xi\, dF(y) < \infty \ \text{ and } \ \lim_{t\to\infty} E\Big(\Big(\frac{X}{t}\Big)^{\xi}\,\Big|\,X > t\Big) = \Big(1 - \frac{\xi}{\alpha}\Big)^{-1}.F∈Dr​(Γα​)⟺∫0∞​yξdF(y)<∞  and  t→∞lim​E((tX​)ξ​X>t)=(1−αξ​)−1.

Milestones

  1. The identity in the proof of Theorem 8(a): for x>0x > 0x>0, with a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment,
∫x∞yξdF(y)xξ(1−F(x))=ξ ∫x∞yξ−1(1−F(y)) dyxξ(1−F(x))+1,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^\xi dF(y)}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} = \xi\,\frac{\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}(1-F(y))\,dy}{x^\xi(1-F(x))} + 1,xξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξdF(y)​=ξxξ(1−F(x))∫x∞​yξ−1(1−F(y))dy​+1,

the left side being E((X/x)ξ∣X>x)E((X/x)^\xi \mid X > x)E((X/x)ξ∣X>x). 2. The value of the limit: ∫0∞xξ dΓα(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1\int_0^\infty x^\xi\, d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1) = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1)=(1−ξ/α)−1 for 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α. 3. The "only if" half: F∈Dr(Γα)F \in D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)F∈Dr​(Γα​) implies a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and convergence of the conditional moment to (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1. 4. The "if" half, corrected: the converse.

Significance

The theorem replaces a distributional limit, required at every x>0x > 0x>0, by one numerical limit, for any order ξ∈(0,α)\xi \in (0,\alpha)ξ∈(0,α). In statistics this justifies testing or estimating heavy-tail behaviour through empirical conditional moments above a high threshold, and it identifies the limit value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1, from which α\alphaα can be read off. Combined with Theorem 4 of the same paper (Dr(Γα)=D(Φα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha) = D(\Phi_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​)=D(Φα​)), it gives a moment criterion for the Fréchet domain of attraction of extreme value theory.

The result is classical and proved, by reduction to Karamata's theorem on integrals of regularly varying functions. No machine-checked proof is known. Mathlib has no theory of regular variation, no Karamata theorem and no domains of attraction, so a formal proof also produces a reusable piece of the theory of regularly varying tails: the direct and converse halves of Karamata's integral theorem for tails of probability laws.

Difficulty

Both directions pass through the asymptotics of ∫x∞yξ−1R(y) dy\int_x^\infty y^{\xi-1}R(y)\,dy∫x∞​yξ−1R(y)dy against xξR(x)x^\xi R(x)xξR(x). The direct half requires uniform control of R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t)R(tx)/R(t) over x∈(1,∞)x \in (1,\infty)x∈(1,∞) to exchange the limit t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞ with an integral over an unbounded range; pointwise convergence of the tail ratio alone does not dominate the integrand. The converse half must recover regular variation of RRR from the behaviour of a single integral functional, and here the limit value matters: the page's hypothesis that the limit merely exists does not identify α\alphaα (see below), so an argument that never uses the value (1−ξ/α)−1(1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}(1−ξ/α)−1 cannot succeed.

Formalization scope

  • The law of XXX is μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx is ∀ x, 0 < μ (Set.Ioi x). All conditional quantities divide by μ (Set.Ioi t), which this hypothesis keeps nonzero.
  • "∫0∞yξdF(y)\int_0^\infty y^\xi dF(y)∫0∞​yξdF(y) is finite" is IntegrableOn (fun y => y ^ ξ) (Set.Ioi 0) μ (real power on positive bases). In the "only if" half it is part of the conclusion, never an assumption; Lean's value 000 for a non-integrable Bochner integral therefore cannot make the statements hold trivially. Milestone 1 asserts integrability of yξ−1R(y)y^{\xi-1}R(y)yξ−1R(y) on (x,∞)(x,\infty)(x,∞) as well.
  • "lim⁡t→∞\lim_{t\to\infty}limt→∞​" is Tendsto … atTop along real ttt; the limit form of Dr(Γα)D_r(\Gamma_\alpha)Dr​(Γα​) is required for every x>0x > 0x>0, as printed (the limit Γα(x−1)\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)Γα​(x−1) is continuous, so this is weak convergence). The goal uses this explicit form, the one given after "i.e." on the page, not a separate definition of DrD_rDr​.
  • ∫0∞xξdΓα(x−1)\int_0^\infty x^\xi d\Gamma_\alpha(x-1)∫0∞​xξdΓα​(x−1) is the integral against a probability measure whose distribution function (ProbabilityTheory.cdf) is x↦Γα(x−1)x \mapsto \Gamma_\alpha(x-1)x↦Γα​(x−1); milestone 2 asserts such a measure exists and computes the moment for every such measure.
  • Corrected statement. The source is the published article (Annals of Probability, DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548). As printed, the "if" direction asks only that c=lim⁡E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)c = \lim E((X/t)^\xi \mid X>t)c=limE((X/t)ξ∣X>t) exist and be finite. That is false: the tail R(x)=x−βR(x) = x^{-\beta}R(x)=x−β for x≥1x \ge 1x≥1, with β>ξ\beta > \xiβ>ξ and β≠α\beta \ne \alphaβ=α, has a finite ξ\xiξ-th moment and E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1E((X/t)^\xi\mid X > t) = (1-\xi/\beta)^{-1}E((X/t)ξ∣X>t)=(1−ξ/β)−1 for all t≥1t \ge 1t≥1, but its limit law is Γβ(x−1)\Gamma_\beta(x-1)Γβ​(x−1). The goal and milestone 4 require c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1, the value the page itself states in "Then c=(1−ξ/α)−1c = (1-\xi/\alpha)^{-1}c=(1−ξ/α)−1". The "only if" direction is exactly the page's.
  • No hypothesis beyond the page is added; α>0\alpha > 0α>0 follows from 0<ξ<α0 < \xi < \alpha0<ξ<α.

A complete development needs regularly varying functions, uniform convergence (or Potter bounds) for regularly varying tails, and Karamata's integral theorem with its converse; all are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of these general tools, and of the Pareto moment computation are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual life time at great age, Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970 (Theorem 1.2.1 and Remark 1.2.1).
  • N. H. Bingham, C. M. Goldie and J. L. Teugels, Regular Variation, Cambridge University Press, 1987. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511721434
  • I. Meilijson, Limiting properties of the mean residual lifetime function, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 43 (1972), 354–357. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177692729
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical inference using extreme order statistics, Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
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Residual Life Time at Great Age 2: The Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of the Exponential Law Is D(Λ) ∩ D₀Research Paper

Motivation

A lifetime observed only after it has survived to a high age is described by its residual life: the additional time until failure, conditional on survival so far. Reliability analysis asks whether these conditional distributions settle into a stable shape after scaling and shifting. Extreme-value theory asks a related question about the largest observation in a large independent sample. Balkema and de Haan identify an exact connection between these questions for the exponential residual-life limit and the Gumbel maxima limit in Theorem 3 of their 1974 article. The connection lets one recognize the asymptotic form of old-age lifetimes from the domain of attraction of sample maxima, provided the lifetime distribution has no finite upper endpoint.

The article studies several residual-life limits. This mission isolates its exponential case, where the limiting conditional excess has distribution function Π(x)=1−e−x\Pi(x)=1-e^{-x}Π(x)=1−e−x for x≥0x\ge0x≥0. The other continuous family Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​ and the paper's discrete limits have separate hypotheses and attraction domains; they are outside this theorem.

Setting

Let XXX have a probability distribution function FFF on R\mathbb RR, and let its survival function be R(x)=Pr⁡(X>x)=1−F(x)R(x)=\Pr(X>x)=1-F(x)R(x)=Pr(X>x)=1−F(x). For a threshold ttt with R(t)>0R(t)>0R(t)>0, the residual-life distribution function is

Ft(x)=Pr⁡(X−t≤x∣X>t)=Pr⁡(t<X≤t+x)R(t).F_t(x)=\Pr(X-t\le x\mid X>t)=\frac{\Pr(t<X\le t+x)}{R(t)}.Ft​(x)=Pr(X−t≤x∣X>t)=R(t)Pr(t<X≤t+x)​.

It is zero for x<0x<0x<0. The class D0D_0D0​ consists of the distributions with R(x)>0R(x)>0R(x)>0 for every real xxx. This says that the upper endpoint is infinite and makes FtF_tFt​ meaningful at every threshold.

A law FFF belongs to the domain of residual-life attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) when F∈D0F\in D_0F∈D0​ and there are a positive scale a(t)a(t)a(t) and a shift b(t)b(t)b(t) such that Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞. The shift here acts on X−tX-tX−t, the residual lifetime. Weak convergence means convergence at every continuity point of the limiting distribution function; it does not require convergence at a jump.

For maxima, FFF belongs to the domain of attraction D(G)D(G)D(G) if there are sequences an>0a_n>0an​>0 and bnb_nbn​ for which F(anx+bn)nF(a_nx+b_n)^nF(an​x+bn​)n converges weakly to G(x)G(x)G(x) as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. The power is the distribution function of the maximum of nnn independent observations after the indicated normalization. The relevant limit laws are the exponential residual-life law and the Gumbel law:

Π(x)={0,x<0,1−e−x,x≥0,Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).\Pi(x)=\begin{cases}0,&x<0,\\1-e^{-x},&x\ge0,\end{cases}\qquad \Lambda(x)=e^{-e^{-x}}\quad(x\in\mathbb R).Π(x)={0,1−e−x,​x<0,x≥0,​Λ(x)=e−e−x(x∈R).

These definitions and formulas come from the introduction and §2 of the published article, printed pages 792–793 and 798.

Formalization targets

Theorem 3: the exact domain identity

The goal is the identity stated on printed page 798:

Dr(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0.D_r(\Pi)=D(\Lambda)\cap D_0.Dr​(Π)=D(Λ)∩D0​.

Both inclusions are required. In particular, membership in the maxima domain alone is insufficient: the maximum of a sample can have a Gumbel limit even when the underlying distribution has a finite upper endpoint, while residual life cannot be conditioned on survival beyond that endpoint. The D0D_0D0​ condition is therefore part of the mathematical claim.

Supporting targets

The milestone list follows the statements used in the article's treatment of Theorem 3: the convergence-of-types remark on page 795; Lemma 3's asymptotic ratio R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1R(x-0)/R(x+0)\to1R(x−0)/R(x+0)→1; the tail criterion nR(bn+xan)→e−xnR(b_n+xa_n)\to e^{-x}nR(bn​+xan​)→e−x associated with Gumbel attraction; the inclusion D(Λ)∩D0⊆Dr(Π)D(\Lambda)\cap D_0\subseteq D_r(\Pi)D(Λ)∩D0​⊆Dr​(Π); and the passage from this tail limit on x>0x>0x>0 to all x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R. The last step retains the same normalization sequences. The article presents the criterion in one direction and relies on its converse at the end; the formal milestone records both directions with the same sequences.

Significance

The identity translates a conditional limit at a moving high threshold into a classical maxima-domain statement. A theorem about sample extremes can therefore characterize whether normalized remaining lifetime is asymptotically exponential. Conversely, observing exponential residual-life attraction determines a Gumbel maxima limit once the tail normalization is extended across the real line. The condition D0D_0D0​ marks exactly where the conditional lifetime exists; omitting it would misstate the equivalence.

The article proves the result mathematically. The Lean targets here provide a precise representation of its distributions, normalizations, and limiting claims, with Theorem 3 still posed for formal proof. A complete development would add proofs of the supporting tail and convergence-of-types statements, then establish both inclusions. The definitions of weak convergence at continuity points, survival functions, and attraction domains can also support later formalizations of the paper's Pareto and discrete cases.

Difficulty

The simple comparison F(anx+bn)n≈e−nR(anx+bn)F(a_nx+b_n)^n\approx e^{-nR(a_nx+b_n)}F(an​x+bn​)n≈e−nR(an​x+bn​) only relates the two limits after a suitable normalization is already available. The reverse direction starts with conditional residual-life convergence indexed by real thresholds, whereas maxima attraction needs a sequence indexed by integers. Sampling thresholds must preserve the tail asymptotics despite possible atoms. More seriously, the residual-life statement initially yields the required scaled-tail convergence only for positive arguments. The maxima limit must hold on the whole real line. A proof confined to that half-line cannot establish D(Λ)D(\Lambda)D(Λ); the continuation across its left boundary is the central difficulty highlighted by the article on printed pages 798–799.

Formalization scope

Lean represents FFF as the cumulative distribution function of a probability measure on R\mathbb RR and uses real-valued probabilities of intervals for RRR and FtF_tFt​. The residual-life denominator is positive wherever DrD_rDr​ is asserted. The extrema normalization is indexed by natural numbers, while the residual-life normalization is indexed by real thresholds. The scale is positive at every index; only large indices affect the limit. Weak convergence is encoded at every continuity point of the limit. As Π\PiΠ and Λ\LambdaΛ are continuous, their particular domain conditions amount to convergence at every real argument.

The paper uses two shift conventions: Ft(b(t)+xa(t))F_t(b(t)+xa(t))Ft​(b(t)+xa(t)) shifts X−tX-tX−t, while the scaled-tail expressions R(bn+xan)R(b_n+xa_n)R(bn​+xan​) shift XXX. Each statement uses the convention of its source passage. The convergence-of-types remark makes explicit the antitonicity and right-continuity of its limiting tails and states its identity where both arguments lie in the half-line on which convergence is known. Gnedenko's criterion is formalized as an equivalence: the printed sentence states the forward implication, and the conclusion of Theorem 3 uses the converse. The page-799 expression R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t)R(b(t)+xa(t))/(t) has a missing RRR in the denominator; the formal statement uses the intended R(t)R(t)R(t), consistent with conditional probability and with equation (11). These choices prevent a zero-denominator quotient or an out-of-domain limit identity from trivializing a target. In particular, D0D_0D0​ is part of the definition of Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G): without it a law with a finite upper endpoint would have R(t)=0R(t)=0R(t)=0 for large ttt, the conditional distribution would be the junk quotient 0/0=00/0=00/0=0, and the domain would be mis-specified. In Lemma 3 the limit GGG is the distribution function of a probability measure, assumed continuous on all of R\mathbb RR.

The development needs measure-theoretic cumulative distributions and interval probabilities, filters for limits, and real exponential identities. The domain definitions and scaled-tail predicate are reusable beyond this theorem. Contributions that prove the stated milestones, or supply general lemmas about weak convergence and normalized tails, fit the scope.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema and L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2(5), 792–804 (1974). DOI: 10.1214/aop/1176996548.
  • B. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44(3), 423–453 (1943). DOI: 10.2307/1968974.
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Residual Life Time at Great Age 3: F Is in the Domain of Residual Life Time Attraction of Π_{p,c} iff It Is Tail Equivalent to a Discrete Law with Gap Ratios → e^{pc} and Tail Ratios → e^{−p}Research Paper

Residual life at great age

A component that has survived to age ttt has a residual life time X−tX - tX−t, and in reliability, actuarial work and the analysis of excesses over high thresholds the question is what its conditional law looks like when ttt is large. Balkema and de Haan (Ann. Probab. 2 (1974), 792–804) answered this in full generality: after an affine normalization, the only possible limit laws are the exponential law Π\PiΠ, the Pareto-type laws Γα\Gamma_\alphaΓα​, and a two-parameter family of discrete laws Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​. The continuous half of their classification became the Pickands–Balkema–de Haan theorem behind the peaks-over-threshold method of extreme-value statistics. The discrete half is less known, and this mission treats it: Theorem 5 of the paper (§3, p. 800) describes exactly which lifetimes are attracted to Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.

Discrete limits appear only when the normalization is allowed both a scale and a shift. They describe lifetimes that live, asymptotically, on a lattice-like set of ages whose spacing grows geometrically, with a fixed fraction of survivors failing at each lattice point.

The source is the published article in The Annals of Probability (DOI 10.1214/aop/1176996548); page numbers below are the journal's.

Setting

Let XXX be a real random variable with law μ\muμ, distribution function FFF and tail R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}R(x) = 1 - F(x) = P\{X > x\}R(x)=1−F(x)=P{X>x}, and assume F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for every xxx. The residual life distribution function at age ttt is (1), p. 792,

Ft(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,t+x])μ((t,∞)).F_t(x) = P\{X - t \le x \mid X > t\} = \frac{\mu((t, t+x])}{\mu((t,\infty))}.Ft​(x)=P{X−t≤x∣X>t}=μ((t,∞))μ((t,t+x])​.

A family of distribution functions HtH_tHt​ converges weakly to GGG if Ht(x)→G(x)H_t(x) \to G(x)Ht​(x)→G(x) at every continuity point xxx of GGG. The domain of residual life time attraction Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (p. 798) is the set of FFF with F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx for which some a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 and b(t)b(t)b(t) give

Ft(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.F_t(b(t) + x a(t)) \to G(x) \quad \text{weakly as } t \to \infty.Ft​(b(t)+xa(t))→G(x)weakly as t→∞.

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0 the discrete limit law is (p. 793), for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0,

Πp,c(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+log⁡(1+cx)cp]) (c>0),Πp,0(x)=1−exp⁡(−p[1+xp]),\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{\log(1+cx)}{cp}\Big]\Big) \ (c > 0), \qquad \Pi_{p,0}(x) = 1 - \exp\Big(-p\Big[1 + \frac{x}{p}\Big]\Big),Πp,c​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+cplog(1+cx)​]) (c>0),Πp,0​(x)=1−exp(−p[1+px​]),

and Πp,c(x)=0\Pi_{p,c}(x) = 0Πp,c​(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0; [ ⋅ ][\,\cdot\,][⋅] is the integer part. Its tail takes the values e−p,e−2p,…e^{-p}, e^{-2p}, \dotse−p,e−2p,… and jumps at (ekpc−1)/c(e^{kpc} - 1)/c(ekpc−1)/c, k=0,1,…k = 0, 1, \dotsk=0,1,… (at kpkpkp if c=0c = 0c=0).

A distribution function F0=1−R0F_0 = 1 - R_0F0​=1−R0​ is discrete with jump sequence t0<t1<⋯t_0 < t_1 < \cdotst0​<t1​<⋯ if the tnt_ntn​ are unbounded, each carries positive mass and there is no other mass. Two distribution functions with Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for all xxx are tail equivalent if 1−F1(x)∼1−F2(x)1 - F_1(x) \sim 1 - F_2(x)1−F1​(x)∼1−F2​(x) as x→∞x \to \inftyx→∞. The conditions of §3 are

(12a)  tn+1−tntn−tn−1→epc,(12b)  R0(tn+1)R0(tn)→e−p.\text{(12a)}\ \ \frac{t_{n+1} - t_n}{t_n - t_{n-1}} \to e^{pc}, \qquad \text{(12b)}\ \ \frac{R_0(t_{n+1})}{R_0(t_n)} \to e^{-p}.(12a)  tn​−tn−1​tn+1​−tn​​→epc,(12b)  R0​(tn​)R0​(tn+1​)​→e−p.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 800)

For p>0p > 0p>0 and c≥0c \ge 0c≥0,

F∈Dr(Πp,c)  ⟺  F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0 whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c}) \iff F \text{ is tail equivalent to a discrete } F_0 \text{ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).}F∈Dr​(Πp,c​)⟺F is tail equivalent to a discrete F0​ whose jumps satisfy (12a) and whose tail satisfies (12b).

Milestones

  1. (§3, pp. 799–800) A discrete FFF satisfying (12a) and (12b) lies in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​).
  2. (§3, p. 800) If F1F_1F1​ is tail equivalent to F2∈Dr(Πp,c)F_2 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F2​∈Dr​(Πp,c​), then F1∈Dr(Πp,c)F_1 \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F1​∈Dr​(Πp,c​). Milestones 1 and 2 give the "if" half.
  3. (Proof of Theorem 5, p. 800) If F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​), there are bn↑∞b_n \uparrow \inftybn​↑∞ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p and a discrete F0F_0F0​, tail equivalent to FFF, with R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) at its jumps.
  4. (Proof of Theorem 5, pp. 800–801) Such an F0F_0F0​ satisfies (12b) and (12a). Milestones 3 and 4 give the "only if" half.

Significance

Theorem 5, together with Theorems 1, 3 and 4 of the paper, completes the description of residual-life attraction: every nondegenerate limit is of one of the listed types, and each type's domain of attraction is identified. For the discrete types the answer is a statement purely about the geometry of the atoms of an approximating law, which makes membership checkable for concrete lifetimes (geometric-type laws on {0,1,2,… }\{0, 1, 2, \dots\}{0,1,2,…} fall under c=0c = 0c=0, laws on a geometric grid {λn}\{\lambda^n\}{λn} under c>0c > 0c>0). It also explains why discrete limits are invisible when only a scale normalization is allowed.

The theorem has been proved since 1974; it has not been formalized. A machine-checked development would supply weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, residual-life normalizations and tail equivalence as reusable objects, and would check a proof that the paper compresses into a page, including a convergence-of-types step on a half line that the paper cites from its own §1.

Difficulty

The "if" half is close to a computation, but the computation is about weak convergence to a step function: the normed tails converge only off the jumps, and the normalization must be extended from the jump times tnt_ntn​ to all real ages ttt.

The "only if" half is the core. From F∈Dr(Πp,c)F \in D_r(\Pi_{p,c})F∈Dr​(Πp,c​) alone one has to manufacture the atoms tnt_ntn​ of a discrete law that FFF itself need not have. The obvious attempt, reading the atoms off the jumps of FFF, fails because FFF may be continuous: membership in Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) only says that FFF drops by a factor close to e−pe^{-p}e−p over short stretches, relative to the normalization, and never by an intermediate factor. Making "never by an intermediate factor" precise uniformly in the age ttt, with normalizations a(t),b(t)a(t), b(t)a(t),b(t) about which nothing but their existence is known, is where the work lies; the same lack of control over a(t)a(t)a(t) is what makes the gap ratio (12a) hard to extract.

Formalization scope

A law is a measure μ : Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure μ; the tail R(x)R(x)R(x) is (μ (Set.Ioi x)).toReal, and Ft(x)F_t(x)Ft​(x) is μ((t, t+x]) / μ((t,∞)). Dr(G)D_r(G)Dr​(G) (InDr) includes F(x)<1F(x) < 1F(x)<1 for all xxx, normalizations a(t)>0a(t) > 0a(t)>0 for all real ttt, and "weakly" means convergence at every continuity point of GGG and nowhere else; requiring convergence at the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ would make Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) empty. Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ (piPC) is defined by cases c=0c = 0c=0 / c>0c > 0c>0 with Int.floor, so that c=0c = 0c=0 is not the junk value of a division by zero; it is used only with p>0p > 0p>0, c≥0c \ge 0c≥0. A discrete law with jump sequence ttt (IsDiscreteWithJumps) has ttt strictly increasing and tending to ∞\infty∞, positive mass at each tnt_ntn​ and no mass elsewhere. (12a) is indexed from n=1n = 1n=1. Tail equivalence (TailEquiv) includes Fi(x)<1F_i(x) < 1Fi​(x)<1 for both laws.

Conventions and disclosed readings:

  • The page proves the "if" direction by showing convergence to a function of the type of 1−Πp,c1 - \Pi_{p,c}1−Πp,c​; since DrD_rDr​ lets a,ba, ba,b be chosen freely, milestone 1 is stated with Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​ itself.
  • The proof of Theorem 5 uses the normalization (2)–(3) of p. 794, where b(t)b(t)b(t) shifts XXX rather than X−tX - tX−t; milestone 3 only asserts the existence of the sequence bnb_nbn​ with R(bn+1)/R(bn)→e−pR(b_{n+1})/R(b_n) \to e^{-p}R(bn+1​)/R(bn​)→e−p, so no convention enters its statement.
  • "F0F_0F0​ only takes the values F(bn)F(b_n)F(bn​)" is formalized as R0(tn)=R(bn)R_0(t_n) = R(b_n)R0​(tn​)=R(bn​) for all nnn, the form the next paragraph of the page uses. This identity is a hypothesis of milestone 4, as on the page, and cannot be dropped: a law tail equivalent to FFF may carry extra atoms of vanishing relative mass, at which (12a) and (12b) fail.
  • The page identifies the limit of the gap ratios as the scale constant AAA of a functional equation; milestone 4 states it as epce^{pc}epc, the gap ratio of the jumps of Πp,c\Pi_{p,c}Πp,c​.
  • Theorem 5 prints "distribution fuction"; this typo is kept in the quoted text only.

No statement is trivialized: Dr(Πp,c)D_r(\Pi_{p,c})Dr​(Πp,c​) is nonempty (the geometric law on {0,1,2,… }\{0,1,2,\dots\}{0,1,2,…} lies in Dr(Πp,0)D_r(\Pi_{p,0})Dr​(Πp,0​)), and Theorem 5 is not a definitional unfolding, since DrD_rDr​ is defined by weak convergence and the right-hand side by discrete approximation.

A complete development needs: weak convergence of distribution functions at continuity points, a convergence-of-types lemma on a half line (the Remark after Lemma 1 of the paper, p. 795), and elementary facts on step functions. The first two are reusable across the whole paper and across extreme-value theory. Contributions of either half of the theorem, or of the convergence-of-types lemma, are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. A. Balkema, L. de Haan, Residual Life Time at Great Age, The Annals of Probability 2 (1974), no. 5, 792–804. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176996548
  • J. Pickands III, Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics, The Annals of Statistics 3 (1975), 119–131. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176343003
  • B. V. Gnedenko, Sur la distribution limite du terme maximum d'une série aléatoire, Annals of Mathematics 44 (1943), 423–453. https://doi.org/10.2307/1968974
  • L. de Haan, On Regular Variation and Its Application to the Weak Convergence of Sample Extremes, Mathematical Centre Tracts 32, Amsterdam, 1970.
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