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Graph TheoryQuantum InformationTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Beyond product state approximations for a quantum analogue of Max Cut: Tensor Products of One- and Two-Qubit States Reach 0.55 of the Maximum Energy on Every Weighted GraphResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical Max Cut asks for a partition of the vertices of a weighted graph that maximises the total weight of edges crossing it. Its best-known approximation algorithm, due to Goemans and Williamson, rounds a semidefinite relaxation and guarantees ratio 0.8780.8780.878. Quantum Max Cut is the analogous problem for a family of local Hamiltonians: each edge contributes a two-qubit term that rewards the two qubits for being antisymmetric, and one asks for the maximum energy of the sum. Estimating it precisely is QMA-complete (Piddock and Montanaro), so attention has turned to efficient approximation algorithms, and to the question of which classes of quantum states can certify a good fraction of the optimum.

A short history of the approximation ratio on weighted graphs:

  • 2010. Briët, de Oliveira Filho and Vallentin give an efficient algorithm approximating the best product-state energy within 0.9560.9560.956; combined with the 1/21/21/2 bound of the next item, this approximates the optimum within 0.4780.4780.478, as observed by Gharibian and Liu.
  • 2012, product states, ratio 1/21/21/2. The best product state always has energy at least half the optimum (Gharibian and Kempe), and this is tight: on a single edge the optimum is the entangled singlet while every product state gets at most half its energy.
  • 2019. Gharibian and Parekh round an SDP relaxation of the quantum problem to product states, reaching 0.4980.4980.498.
  • 2020. Anshu, Gosset and Morenz (arXiv:2003.14394) show that allowing two-qubit entangled blocks breaks the 1/21/21/2 barrier on every weighted graph: some tensor product of one- and two-qubit states reaches 0.550.550.55 of the optimum. This mission formalizes that result.

Setting

Let G=(V,E,w)G=(V,E,w)G=(V,E,w) be a simple graph on V={0,…,n−1}V=\{0,\dots,n-1\}V={0,…,n−1} with nonnegative edge weights we≥0w_e\ge0we​≥0 (the paper's standing assumption). Each vertex carries a qubit; a state is a vector ψ∈C{0,1}n\psi\in\mathbb C^{\{0,1\}^n}ψ∈C{0,1}n, and it is a unit state if ∑x∣ψ(x)∣2=1\sum_x|\psi(x)|^2=1∑x​∣ψ(x)∣2=1. With the Pauli matrices X,Y,ZX,Y,ZX,Y,Z acting on qubit iii written Xi,Yi,ZiX_i,Y_i,Z_iXi​,Yi​,Zi​, the quantum Max Cut Hamiltonian is

HG=∑{i,j}∈Ewij hij,hij=12(I−XiXj−YiYj−ZiZj),H_G=\sum_{\{i,j\}\in E}w_{ij}\,h_{ij},\qquad h_{ij}=\tfrac12\bigl(I-X_iX_j-Y_iY_j-Z_iZ_j\bigr),HG​={i,j}∈E∑​wij​hij​,hij​=21​(I−Xi​Xj​−Yi​Yj​−Zi​Zj​),

each edge counted once. The term hijh_{ij}hij​ equals twice the projector onto the singlet (∣01⟩−∣10⟩)/2(|01\rangle-|10\rangle)/\sqrt2(∣01⟩−∣10⟩)/2​, so HGH_GHG​ is positive semidefinite, and

OPT(G)=∥HG∥=max⁡ψ unit⟨ψ∣HG∣ψ⟩.\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\|H_G\|=\max_{\psi\ \text{unit}}\langle\psi|H_G|\psi\rangle .OPT(G)=∥HG​∥=ψ unitmax​⟨ψ∣HG​∣ψ⟩.

Two weight statistics appear throughout: the total weight W=∑e∈EweW=\sum_{e\in E}w_eW=∑e∈E​we​ and, for a vertex vvv, max⁡e∼vwe\max_{e\sim v}w_emaxe∼v​we​, the largest weight of an edge incident to vvv (zero for an isolated vertex).

A tensor product of 1- and 2-qubit states φ=φ1⊗⋯⊗φL\varphi=\varphi_1\otimes\cdots\otimes\varphi_Lφ=φ1​⊗⋯⊗φL​ is obtained by partitioning the qubits into blocks of size one or two (a pair need not be an edge of GGG), choosing a unit vector of C2\mathbb C^2C2 or C4\mathbb C^4C4 for each block, and multiplying the block amplitudes. Product states (all blocks of size one) and singlets placed on a matching are examples; a generic entangled state of three qubits is not.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 5)

For every graph with nonnegative weights there is a tensor product φ\varphiφ of 1- and 2-qubit states such that

⟨φ∣HG∣φ⟩OPT(G)  ≥  0.55.\frac{\langle\varphi|H_G|\varphi\rangle}{\mathrm{OPT}(G)}\;\ge\;0.55 .OPT(G)⟨φ∣HG​∣φ⟩​≥0.55.

The constant is the exact minimum of the optimisation problem (28) of the paper.

Milestones

The proof combines an upper bound on OPT(G)\mathrm{OPT}(G)OPT(G) with three candidate states:

  1. Eq. (10) and Lemma 1 (pp. 6–7): on a star with nonnegative weights, ∥L(G)∥≤∑ewe+max⁡ewe\|L(G)\|\le\sum_ew_e+\max_ew_e∥L(G)∥≤∑e​we​+maxe​we​ for the weighted Laplacian, and ∥HG∥≤max⁡ewe+∑ewe\|H_G\|\le\max_ew_e+\sum_ew_e∥HG​∥≤maxe​we​+∑e​we​.
  2. Weighted eq. (15) (p. 9): OPT(G)≤W+12∑vmax⁡e∼vwe\mathrm{OPT}(G)\le W+\frac12\sum_{v}\max_{e\sim v}w_eOPT(G)≤W+21​∑v​maxe∼v​we​.
  3. Weighted eqs. (18)–(19) and eq. (24) (pp. 8, 10): a computational basis state ∣z⟩|z\rangle∣z⟩ with ⟨z∣HG∣z⟩/OPT(G)≥13+23 W/(2W+∑vmax⁡e∼vwe)\langle z|H_G|z\rangle/\mathrm{OPT}(G)\ge\frac13+\frac23\,W/\bigl(2W+\sum_v\max_{e\sim v}w_e\bigr)⟨z∣HG​∣z⟩/OPT(G)≥31​+32​W/(2W+∑v​maxe∼v​we​).
  4. Lemma 2 (p. 10): a matching MMM and a forest FFF in EEE with ∑vmax⁡e∼vwe=∑e∈Mwe+∑e∈Fwe\sum_v\max_{e\sim v}w_e=\sum_{e\in M}w_e+\sum_{e\in F}w_e∑v​maxe∼v​we​=∑e∈M​we​+∑e∈F​we​.
  5. Eq. (25) (p. 10): singlets on MMM and uniformly random bits elsewhere have average energy 32m+12W\frac32m+\frac12W23​m+21​W, m=∑e∈Mwem=\sum_{e\in M}w_em=∑e∈M​we​.
  6. Eq. (26) (p. 11): a basis state with energy at least f=∑e∈Fwef=\sum_{e\in F}w_ef=∑e∈F​we​.
  7. Eq. (27) (p. 11): the best of the three states has ratio at least max⁡{2f, 3m+W, (4W+f+m)/3}/(2W+f+m)\max\{2f,\,3m+W,\,(4W+f+m)/3\}/(2W+f+m)max{2f,3m+W,(4W+f+m)/3}/(2W+f+m).
  8. Eqs. (28)–(29) (p. 11): max⁡{2y,3x+1,(4+x+y)/3}≥0.55 (2+x+y)\max\{2y,3x+1,(4+x+y)/3\}\ge0.55\,(2+x+y)max{2y,3x+1,(4+x+y)/3}≥0.55(2+x+y) for 0≤x≤y≤10\le x\le y\le10≤x≤y≤1.

Significance

The result shows that the 1/21/21/2 limitation of product states for quantum Max Cut is not a limitation of efficiently describable states: allowing entanglement only within disjoint pairs of qubits already guarantees a fraction strictly above 1/21/21/2 on every weighted graph, including those (a single heavy edge) where product states are stuck at exactly 1/21/21/2. The accompanying algorithmic statement (an efficient randomized algorithm with ratio ≥0.53\ge0.53≥0.53) improved the best known efficient approximation ratio at the time. The upper bound of Lemma 1 is a quantitative form of monogamy of entanglement on a star: the centre qubit cannot be maximally entangled with all of its neighbours.

The theorem is proved in the paper; none of it is formalized. A complete development gives a machine-checked model of a frustrated quantum spin Hamiltonian on arbitrary weighted graphs, a formal upper bound on its ground-state energy, and an explicit certified family of entangled states. The final step, (28)–(29), is evaluated in the paper "by a computer"; a formal proof replaces that evaluation.

Difficulty

The obvious upper bound, ∥HG∥≤∑ewe∥he∥=2W\|H_G\|\le\sum_ew_e\|h_e\|=2W∥HG​∥≤∑e​we​∥he​∥=2W, is too weak: it allows every edge to be maximally entangled simultaneously, and with it no ratio above 1/21/21/2 follows. The improvement needs the star bound of Lemma 1, which the paper derives from the Lieb–Mattis theorem on the spin of the ground state of bipartite antiferromagnets, restricting the problem to the Hamming-weight-one sector where the Hamiltonian becomes a weighted graph Laplacian. Neither Lieb–Mattis nor the angular-momentum decomposition of (C2)⊗n(\mathbb C^2)^{\otimes n}(C2)⊗n is available in Mathlib. The combinatorial side (Lemma 2) needs a careful choice of a maximal incident edge at each vertex and an argument that these edges form no cycle. Eq. (25) is an exact energy computation for a state that is entangled across a matching.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Qubits are Fin n, basis configurations Fin n → Fin 2, states (Fin n → Fin 2) → ℂ, operators complex matrices indexed by configurations; onSite i σ places a 2×22\times22×2 matrix on qubit iii. The graph is a SimpleGraph (Fin n); weights are w : Sym2 (Fin n) → ℝ with ∀ e, 0 ≤ w e in every statement. HGH_GHG​ sums over the ordered representatives i<ji<ji<j of the edges, so each edge is counted once. The energy is the real part of ⟨ψ∣H∣ψ⟩\langle\psi|H|\psi\rangle⟨ψ∣H∣ψ⟩.
  • No OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT as a supremum. OPT(G)\mathrm{OPT}(G)OPT(G) is not defined. Since HG⪰0H_G\succeq0HG​⪰0, a bound ⟨φ∣HG∣φ⟩≥c OPT(G)\langle\varphi|H_G|\varphi\rangle\ge c\,\mathrm{OPT}(G)⟨φ∣HG​∣φ⟩≥cOPT(G) is stated as c ⟨ψ∣HG∣ψ⟩≤⟨φ∣HG∣φ⟩c\,\langle\psi|H_G|\psi\rangle\le\langle\varphi|H_G|\varphi\ranglec⟨ψ∣HG​∣ψ⟩≤⟨φ∣HG​∣φ⟩ for every unit ψ\psiψ, with φ\varphiφ chosen before ψ\psiψ. Ratios are cleared of denominators; 0.550.550.55 is the real 11/2011/2011/20. Where the paper bounds PROD(G)\mathrm{PROD}(G)PROD(G) (eqs. (19), (24)), the item exhibits a computational basis state, which is a product state.
  • The class. A tensor product of 1- and 2-qubit states is given by an involution ppp of the qubits (the block of iii is {i,p(i)}\{i,p(i)\}{i,p(i)}), a unit vector of C2\mathbb C^2C2 for every fixed point, a unit vector of C4\mathbb C^4C4 for every pair, and the product of block amplitudes. The norm and disjointness conditions are part of the definition, so the class does not contain every state and the goal cannot be met by a top eigenvector.
  • Conventions. max⁡e∼vwe=0\max_{e\sim v}w_e=0maxe∼v​we​=0 for an isolated vertex and max⁡e∈Ewe=0\max_{e\in E}w_e=0maxe∈E​we​=0 for an edgeless graph. A star is a graph all of whose edges contain one centre; other vertices may be isolated. A forest is an edge set whose spanning subgraph is acyclic; a matching is an edge set whose distinct edges are disjoint. The singlet on {i,j}\{i,j\}{i,j}, i<ji<ji<j, is (∣01⟩−∣10⟩)/2(|01\rangle-|10\rangle)/\sqrt2(∣01⟩−∣10⟩)/2​ with qubit iii first.
  • Weighted forms. Eqs. (15) and (18)–(19) are written in the paper for unit weights and reused in weighted form in the proof of Theorem 3; the items state the weighted forms.
  • Not formalized. The second sentence of Theorem 3 (an efficient randomized algorithm with ratio ≥0.53\ge0.53≥0.53), the words "efficiently compute" in Lemma 2 and eq. (26) (existence only), the polynomial bound on the maximum weight (relevant only to running time), Theorems 1, 2, 4 and 5.
  • Infrastructure. Useful general results include the Pauli algebra of onSite, energies of computational basis states (equal to cut values), partial-trace style computations for tensor products of blocks, and a Laplacian/Gershgorin bound; the Hamiltonian layer is reusable for later quantum Max Cut missions. Contributions of any of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Anshu, D. Gosset, K. Morenz, Beyond product state approximations for a quantum analogue of Max Cut, TQC 2020; arXiv:2003.14394v1 (2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.14394
  • S. Gharibian, O. Parekh, Almost optimal classical approximation algorithms for a quantum generalization of Max-Cut, APPROX/RANDOM 2019. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.08846
  • J. Briët, F. M. de Oliveira Filho, F. Vallentin, The positive semidefinite Grothendieck problem with rank constraint, ICALP 2010. https://arxiv.org/abs/0910.5765
  • S. Gharibian, J. Kempe, Approximation algorithms for QMA-complete problems, SIAM J. Comput. 41(4) (2012). https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.3884
  • M. X. Goemans, D. P. Williamson, Improved approximation algorithms for maximum cut and satisfiability problems using semidefinite programming, J. ACM 42 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1145/227683.227684
  • S. Piddock, A. Montanaro, The complexity of antiferromagnetic interactions and 2D lattices, arXiv preprint (2015). https://arxiv.org/abs/1506.04014
  • E. Lieb, D. Mattis, Ordering energy levels of interacting spin systems, J. Math. Phys. 3 (1962). https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1724276
12 thms2 active usersReviewed
Group TheoryQuantum Error CorrectionQuantum Information·Captain: mikedeng1

Restrictions on Transversal Encoded Quantum Gate Sets: For Any Nontrivial Local-Error-Detecting Quantum Code, the Transversal Logical Unitary Operators Are Not UniversalResearch Paper

Motivation

A quantum computer that runs long computations must protect its data with a quantum error-correcting code and must compute on the encoded data without letting errors spread. The simplest gates with that property are transversal gates: a code is laid out in several code blocks, and a transversal gate couples each physical subsystem of one block only to the corresponding subsystem of the other blocks, so a single fault never becomes several faults inside one block (Gottesman 1997; Aliferis, Gottesman, Preskill 2006). Every known code has some encoded gate that is not transversal, and fault-tolerant schemes pay for the missing gates with expensive constructions such as magic-state distillation. Whether some code has a universal transversal gate set was a long-standing question.

Timeline.

  • 2007: Zeng, Cross and Chuang show that transversal gates are not universal for stabilizer codes on qubits (arXiv:0706.1382).
  • 2008: Chen, Chung, Cross, Zeng and Chuang extend this to stabilizer codes on qudits (arXiv:0801.2360).
  • 2008–2009: Eastin and Knill prove the statement for every code that detects an arbitrary error on any single subsystem, stabilizer or not (arXiv:0811.4262; Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 110502, 2009). This is the result of the present mission, now called the Eastin–Knill theorem.

Setting

A composite quantum system Q\mathcal QQ consists of finitely many physical subsystems jjj, subsystem jjj having dimension djd_jdj​. Operators on Q\mathcal QQ are complex matrices on Cd1⊗⋯⊗Cdn\mathbb C^{d_1}\otimes\cdots\otimes\mathbb C^{d_n}Cd1​⊗⋯⊗Cdn​. A product operator is ⨂jUj\bigotimes_j U_j⨂j​Uj​ with UjU_jUj​ acting on subsystem jjj, and T\mathcal TT is the group of unitary product operators (Uj∈U(dj)U_j \in \mathcal U(d_j)Uj​∈U(dj​)).

A quantum code is a subspace of the state space, represented by the orthogonal projector PPP onto it; its dimension rank⁡P\operatorname{rank} PrankP is the dimension of the encoded system, and the code is nontrivial when this dimension is at least 222. An error EEE is detectable when PEP∝PPEP \propto PPEP∝P. The code is local-error-detecting when every error on any single subsystem is detectable: P (I⊗E⊗I) P∝PP\,(I\otimes E\otimes I)\,P \propto PP(I⊗E⊗I)P∝P for every operator EEE acting on one subsystem.

A unitary UUU is logical when it preserves the code space,

(I−P) U P=0(Eq. (1)),(I-P)\,U\,P = 0 \qquad \text{(Eq. (1))},(I−P)UP=0(Eq. (1)),

and G\mathcal GG denotes the logical unitary product operators. An encoded unitary is a unitary operator WWW of the code space (PWP=WPWP = WPWP=W, W†W=WW†=PW^\dagger W = WW^\dagger = PW†W=WW†=P). A set SSS of unitaries is universal when every encoded unitary is approximated to arbitrary accuracy by the actions PUPPUPPUP, U∈SU \in SU∈S, on the code space.

For a code made of blocks bbb, each with subsystems at the same positions jjj and a block code PbP_bPb​, the joint code is P=⨂bPbP = \bigotimes_b P_bP=⨂b​Pb​. The transversal part jjj collects subsystem jjj of every block, and a transversal unitary is a product of unitaries, one on each transversal part.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 1

For block codes PbP_bPb​, each local-error-detecting, with rank⁡⨂bPb≥2\operatorname{rank}\bigotimes_b P_b \ge 2rank⨂b​Pb​≥2, the set G\mathcal GG of transversal logical unitaries is not universal:

{ W:PWP=W, W†W=WW†=P } ⊈ { PUP:U∈G }‾.\{\,W : PWP = W,\ W^\dagger W = WW^\dagger = P\,\}\ \not\subseteq\ \overline{\{\,PUP : U \in \mathcal G\,\}}.{W:PWP=W, W†W=WW†=P} ⊆ {PUP:U∈G}​.

Theorem 1 (milestone)

The same conclusion for product operators on the physical subsystems of a single local-error-detecting code with rank⁡P≥2\operatorname{rank} P \ge 2rankP≥2.

Milestones on the way

In attack order: Lemma 1 (logical unitaries form a group); Lemma 2 (logical unitaries in a closed group of unitaries form a closed subgroup); T\mathcal TT is a compact group; the derivative step (I−P)DP=0(I-P)DP = 0(I−P)DP=0; elements of the Lie algebra of T\mathcal TT are sums of local Hermitian operators; DP∝PDP \propto PDP∝P for a logical sum of local Hermitians; the identity component C\mathcal CC of G\mathcal GG acts on the code space as a scalar; G\mathcal GG has finitely many actions on the code space up to phase; Theorem 1; and the detectability of an error on a single transversal part.

Significance

The result. The theorem rules out the simplest route to fault tolerance for every code that detects single-subsystem errors, which includes every code of distance at least 222. It explains why every fault-tolerant architecture needs a non-transversal ingredient (state injection and distillation, code switching, gauge fixing, measurements with feed-forward), and it is the starting point for later refinements: approximate and covariant versions for continuous symmetries (Faist et al. 2020), and restrictions on the level of the Clifford hierarchy reachable transversally (Bravyi–König 2013).

Formalizing it. The result is proved; no machine-checked proof of it is known to exist. The mission produces a checked statement of the theorem for arbitrary finite-dimensional subsystems and arbitrary (non-stabilizer) codes, together with a reusable layer: tensor-product operators on index-typed subsystems, codes as projectors, logical operators, local error detection, encoded universality and block codes. Related platform items are QAlgorithms_Defs_QECC (qubit stabilizer codes, detectability for submodule codes) and QAlgorithms.GottesmanIntro.knillLaflamme (the error-correction criterion), which use a different model of codes and are not imported here.

Difficulty

The paper's argument runs through Lie theory: G\mathcal GG is a closed subgroup of the compact group T\mathcal TT, so it is a compact Lie group with finitely many connected components; its identity component is generated by exponentials of its Lie algebra, and local error detection forces that Lie algebra to act on the code space by scalars. None of this is about the code alone; the difficulty is the passage from a closed matrix group to its Lie algebra and back (exponential coordinates, connectedness of the identity component, finiteness of the component group of a compact Lie group). Mathlib has the matrix exponential and compactness of the unitary group but not Cartan's closed-subgroup theorem or the Lie algebra of a closed matrix group.

A frequent first idea, that G\mathcal GG itself is a finite group, is false: every global phase eiθIe^{i\theta}IeiθI is a logical product unitary, so G\mathcal GG always contains a circle. Only the action of G\mathcal GG on the code space is finite, and only up to phase; a statement that ignores the phase is false.

Formalization scope

Subsystem jjj is a finite index type αj\alpha_jαj​ (so dj=∣αj∣d_j = |\alpha_j|dj​=∣αj​∣), and the system has basis ∏jαj\prod_j \alpha_j∏j​αj​; operators are Matrix over ℂ, unitaries are Matrix.unitaryGroup. A code is its projector (Hermitian, idempotent) and its dimension is Matrix.rank; "nontrivial" is 2≤rank⁡P2 \le \operatorname{rank} P2≤rankP. Closure is in the standard topology on complex matrices, which is the topology of any norm. Exponentials are NormedSpace.exp with the factor iii of the physics convention (footnote 1).

Disclosed restatements:

  1. "Lie group/Lie subgroup" (Lemma 2, T\mathcal TT) is stated as closed or compact subgroup; Cartan's theorem is not in Mathlib.
  2. "DDD in the Lie algebra" is stated through the one-parameter group t↦eitDt\mapsto e^{itD}t↦eitD.
  3. The real coefficients αj\alpha_jαj​ in D=∑jαjHjD = \sum_j \alpha_j H_jD=∑j​αj​Hj​ are absorbed into the Hermitian HjH_jHj​.
  4. The page's "the constant of proportionality must be one" is a slip (global phases lie in C\mathcal CC); the identity-component and finite-actions milestones state CP∝PCP \propto PCP∝P and GP=c FPGP = c\,FPGP=cFP.
  5. Corollary 1's code blocks are a tensor product of block codes PbP_bPb​ with common positions jjj and possibly different codes and dimensions; a single block is Theorem 1.

Universality is defined only through approximation of encoded unitaries, local error detection quantifies over every matrix on one subsystem, and G\mathcal GG is the full intersection of T\mathcal TT with the logical unitaries, so no hypothesis trivializes the conclusion; at rank 111 the conclusion is false, which is why the rank hypothesis is ≥2\ge 2≥2 and not P≠0P \ne 0P=0.

A complete development needs the Lie algebra of a closed subgroup of Matrix.unitaryGroup, connectedness of the identity component via exponentials, and finiteness of the component group of a compact matrix group. These parts are reusable far beyond this mission, and contributions of them, as well as alternative proofs of Theorem 1 that avoid Lie theory, are welcome.

Selected references

  • B. Eastin, E. Knill, Restrictions on Transversal Encoded Quantum Gate Sets, Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 110502 (2009). https://arxiv.org/abs/0811.4262
  • B. Zeng, A. Cross, I. L. Chuang, Transversality versus Universality for Additive Quantum Codes, IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 57 (2011). https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.1382
  • X. Chen, H. Chung, A. W. Cross, B. Zeng, I. L. Chuang, Subsystem stabilizer codes cannot have a universal set of transversal gates for even one encoded qudit, Phys. Rev. A 78, 012353 (2008). https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.2360
  • D. Gottesman, Stabilizer Codes and Quantum Error Correction, PhD thesis, Caltech (1997). https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9705052
  • S. Bravyi, R. König, Classification of topologically protected gates for local stabilizer codes, Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 170503 (2013). https://arxiv.org/abs/1206.1609
  • P. Faist et al., Continuous symmetries and approximate quantum error correction, Phys. Rev. X 10, 041018 (2020). https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.07714
12 thms2 active usersReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximating Systems Fed by Poisson Processes with Rapidly Changing Arrival Rates: A Point Process with Rapidly Fluctuating Arrival Rate Converges Weakly to a Constant-Rate Poisson ProcessResearch Paper

Motivation

Arrival streams to service systems (call centres, hospitals, web servers) are rarely stationary: their rate changes with the time of day, with external events, or with the state of a self-exciting mechanism. Two asymptotic regimes are standard. When the rate varies slowly relative to service times, the system is approximated by a sequence of stationary systems, one per rate level (the pointwise stationary approximation). When the rate varies rapidly, the opposite simplification is expected: the fluctuations average out, and the arrival stream looks like a homogeneous Poisson process with the long-run average rate.

Zheng, Honnappa and Glynn (arXiv:1807.06805v1, published as a Technical Note in Operations Research, 2021) make the rapid regime precise for a general class of arrival processes. The arrival process need not be a doubly stochastic Poisson process; a Hawkes process is allowed. Their Theorem 1 says that, after a time acceleration combined with an independent thinning, the arrival process converges in law on path space to a Poisson process. The remaining results of the paper (total-variation behaviour, first-order corrections in the Markov-modulated case, the infinite-server queue) refine this limit and are not part of this mission.

Setting

A probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) carries a filtration F=(Ft)t≥0\mathcal F=(\mathcal F_t)_{t\ge0}F=(Ft​)t≥0​ and an arrival counting process N=(N(t))t≥0N=(N(t))_{t\ge0}N=(N(t))t≥0​: N(0)=0N(0)=0N(0)=0, NNN is integer valued, non-decreasing and right-continuous, and it is simple, meaning that it increases by exactly one at each arrival epoch. NNN has an F\mathcal FF-compensator A=(A(t))t≥0A=(A(t))_{t\ge0}A=(A(t))t≥0​: a predictable process with A(0)=0A(0)=0A(0)=0 and non-decreasing right-continuous paths such that

M(t)=N(t)−A(t)M(t)=N(t)-A(t)M(t)=N(t)−A(t)

is an F\mathcal FF-martingale. When A(t)=∫0tλ(s) dsA(t)=\int_0^t\lambda(s)\,dsA(t)=∫0t​λ(s)ds, the process λ\lambdaλ is the stochastic intensity of NNN.

Assumption 1. There is a deterministic λ∗∈(0,∞)\lambda^*\in(0,\infty)λ∗∈(0,∞) with A(t)/t⇒λ∗A(t)/t\Rightarrow\lambda^*A(t)/t⇒λ∗ as t→∞t\to\inftyt→∞.

For 0<ε≤10<\varepsilon\le10<ε≤1, let βε=(βiε)i≥1\beta^\varepsilon=(\beta^\varepsilon_i)_{i\ge1}βε=(βiε​)i≥1​ be iid Bernoulli(ε\varepsilonε) random variables independent of NNN. The thinned, accelerated process and its scaled compensator are

Nε(t)=∑i=1N(t/ε)βiε,Aε(t)=εA(t/ε).N_\varepsilon(t)=\sum_{i=1}^{N(t/\varepsilon)}\beta^\varepsilon_i,\qquad A_\varepsilon(t)=\varepsilon A(t/\varepsilon).Nε​(t)=i=1∑N(t/ε)​βiε​,Aε​(t)=εA(t/ε).

NεN_\varepsilonNε​ runs NNN at speed 1/ε1/\varepsilon1/ε and keeps each arrival independently with probability ε\varepsilonε, so the mean rate stays of order λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ while the intensity λε(t)=λ(t/ε)\lambda_\varepsilon(t)=\lambda(t/\varepsilon)λε​(t)=λ(t/ε) fluctuates on the time scale ε\varepsilonε. The σ-algebra Gtε\mathcal G^\varepsilon_tGtε​ is generated by Ft/ε\mathcal F_{t/\varepsilon}Ft/ε​ and the marks βiε\beta^\varepsilon_iβiε​ of the arrivals 1≤i≤N(t/ε)1\le i\le N(t/\varepsilon)1≤i≤N(t/ε) that have occurred.

D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞) is the space of right-continuous real paths on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with left limits, with the Skorokhod J1J_1J1​ topology.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 4)

Under Assumption 1,

Nε⇒N0in D[0,∞) as ε↓0,N_\varepsilon\Rightarrow N_0\quad\text{in }D[0,\infty)\text{ as }\varepsilon\downarrow0,Nε​⇒N0​in D[0,∞) as ε↓0,

where N0N_0N0​ is a Poisson process with constant intensity λ∗\lambda^*λ∗. The goal fixes no rate of convergence and no constants; it asserts convergence in law on path space and the identity of the limit.

Milestones

  1. §2, p. 3. NεN_\varepsilonNε​ is a simple point process: every path is a counting path with unit jumps, and each Nε(t)N_\varepsilon(t)Nε​(t) is a random variable.
  2. §2, p. 3. AεA_\varepsilonAε​ is the Gε\mathcal G^\varepsilonGε-compensator of NεN_\varepsilonNε​:
E[Nε(t+s)−Aε(t+s) ∣ Gtε]=Nε(t)−Aε(t),s,t≥0.E\big[N_\varepsilon(t+s)-A_\varepsilon(t+s)\,\big|\,\mathcal G^\varepsilon_t\big]=N_\varepsilon(t)-A_\varepsilon(t),\qquad s,t\ge0 .E[Nε​(t+s)−Aε​(t+s)​Gtε​]=Nε​(t)−Aε​(t),s,t≥0.
  1. Proof of Theorem 1, p. 4. For each t≥0t\ge0t≥0, Aε(t)→λ∗tA_\varepsilon(t)\to\lambda^*tAε​(t)→λ∗t in probability as ε↓0\varepsilon\downarrow0ε↓0.
  2. Theorem 13.4.IV of Daley and Vere-Jones (1988), as the proof applies it: if simple counting processes NnN_nNn​ have compensators AnA_nAn​ (each with respect to its own filtration) with An(t)→λtA_n(t)\to\lambda tAn​(t)→λt in probability for every ttt, then Nn⇒N_n\RightarrowNn​⇒ Poisson(λ\lambdaλ) in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞).

Significance

Theorem 1 justifies replacing a rapidly fluctuating arrival stream by a homogeneous Poisson stream of rate λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ in the analysis of the system it feeds. If ZZZ collects the other primitives of a queue (service and patience times) and is independent of NεN_\varepsilonNε​, then (Z,Nε)⇒(Z,N0)(Z,N_\varepsilon)\Rightarrow(Z,N_0)(Z,Nε​)⇒(Z,N0​), and any performance functional continuous at (Z,N0)(Z,N_0)(Z,N0​) converges to its value under Poisson input (p. 4). The second half of the paper shows that this approximation holds in law on path space but not in total variation, which is why the J1J_1J1​ statement is the right form of the result.

The result is proved on paper, in two lines that cite a general limit theorem. No part of it has been machine-checked. This mission produces the first formal statement and proof of a Poisson limit for point processes driven by their compensators, the cited theorem (milestone 4), which applies well beyond this paper: superposition limits, rare-event thinning, and Hawkes-process limits all reduce to it. Milestone 2 is a reusable thinning lemma for compensators.

Difficulty

Milestones 1 and 3 are elementary: the first is pathwise, the second is a time change in Assumption 1. Milestone 2 is a conditional-expectation computation with a random number of summands, and needs the marks to be independent of all the information in F∞\mathcal F_\inftyF∞​, not only of NNN (see the scope section).

The difficulty is milestone 4. Convergence of the compensators at each fixed time identifies the limit only through a martingale characterisation of the Poisson process (Watanabe's theorem). Path-space convergence additionally needs J1J_1J1​ tightness of the counting processes. Finite-dimensional convergence of NεN_\varepsilonNε​ is not enough: the statement is about laws on D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞), and the step from fixed times to path space is part of the work. The goal also does not follow from milestones 1 to 4 verbatim: the goal assumes the marks independent of NNN only and does not assume E N(t)<∞E\,N(t)<\inftyEN(t)<∞, while milestone 2 needs both stronger hypotheses.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace RapidRatePoisson.WeakConv. Conventions:

  • Time and ε\varepsilonε are ℝ≥0. Every statement involving t/εt/\varepsilont/ε assumes ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. Processes are ℝ≥0 → Ω → ℝ. Marks are ℕ → Ω → Bool, indexed from 1, and markSeq β is the random sequence (β1,β2,… )(\beta_1,\beta_2,\dots)(β1​,β2​,…).
  • "Simple counting process" is the published MartingaleHT.InfiniteServer.IsUnitJumpCountingPath, required of every path.
  • The compensator is the predictable one, with A(0)=0A(0)=0A(0)=0 (IsCompensator: Mathlib's IsStronglyPredictable and Martingale with respect to a Filtration ℝ≥0). This is the standard meaning of the term. The page's paraphrase without predictability makes Theorem 1 false: for NNN Poisson(1) and A=t/2+JA=t/2+JA=t/2+J, with JJJ an independent increasing pure-jump process of mean t/2t/2t/2 with finitely many jumps, N−AN-AN−A is a martingale and A(t)/t→1/2A(t)/t\to1/2A(t)/t→1/2, but NεN_\varepsilonNε​ is Poisson(1) for every ε\varepsilonε.
  • Assumption 1's "⇒" to a constant is convergence in probability (Mathlib's TendstoInMeasure).
  • "⇒ in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞)" is the published coupling-form PuhaWardFluid.Limit.ConvInDist with J1J_1J1​ on real paths, which is equivalent to weak convergence of the laws. "As ε↓0\varepsilon\downarrow0ε↓0" is stated along every sequence εn→0\varepsilon_n\to0εn​→0 in (0,1](0,1](0,1], which is equivalent by metrizability. The limit N0N_0N0​ ranges over every process satisfying the published RankBasedSDI.LoadBalancing.IsPoissonProcess with rate λ∗\lambda^*λ∗ on any probability space.
  • "Independent of NNN" in the goal is independence of markSeq (β ε) from the whole path of NNN, for each ε\varepsilonε separately.
  • Milestone 2 adds two disclosed hypotheses: the marks are independent of ⋁tFt\bigvee_t\mathcal F_t⋁t​Ft​, and E N(t)<∞E\,N(t)<\inftyEN(t)<∞. The first is needed because the page's own step that replaces Gtε\mathcal G^\varepsilon_tGtε​ by Ft/ε\mathcal F_{t/\varepsilon}Ft/ε​ fails otherwise (a mark built from an F0\mathcal F_0F0​ coin and the parity of N(1)N(1)N(1) is independent of NNN, yet it reveals the future). The second is needed because a martingale N−AN-AN−A does not make N(t)N(t)N(t) integrable.
  • Milestone 4's statement is the form the proof applies; the paper does not print it.

The trivialising readings are ruled out. The goal is convergence in D[0,∞)D[0,\infty)D[0,∞) with J1J_1J1​, not finite-dimensional or one-time-marginal convergence. The limit carries the Poisson predicate and is not an arbitrary process. The compensator is predictable, not the literal "increasing process making N−AN-AN−A a martingale". A sorry-free check (not uploaded) shows the goal's hypotheses can be met together: the deterministic instance N=A=⌊t⌋N=A=\lfloor t\rfloorN=A=⌊t⌋ with the trivial filtration, λ∗=1\lambda^*=1λ∗=1, and uniform marks on [0,1]N[0,1]^{\mathbb N}[0,1]N.

Needed infrastructure: martingale characterisation of the Poisson process, J1J_1J1​ tightness criteria for counting processes, and conditional expectation over random index sets. All of it is reusable beyond this mission. Contributions to milestone 4 and its supporting lemmas are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • Z. Zheng, H. Honnappa, P. W. Glynn, Approximating Systems Fed by Poisson Processes with Rapidly Changing Arrival Rates, Operations Research (Technical Note), 2021; preprint arXiv:1807.06805v1, 2018. https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.06805
  • D. J. Daley, D. Vere-Jones, An Introduction to the Theory of Point Processes, Springer, 1988 (Theorem 13.4.IV). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2001-3
  • T. C. Brown, A martingale approach to the Poisson convergence of simple point processes, Annals of Probability 6(4), 615–628, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1176995481
  • O. Kallenberg, Foundations of Modern Probability, Springer, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1007/b98838
  • S. N. Ethier, T. G. Kurtz, Markov Processes: Characterization and Convergence, Wiley, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316658
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Control of Fork-Join Processing Networks with Multiple Job Types and Parallel Shared Resources: The LP-Tracking Policy Is Asymptotically Optimal in Diffusion ScaleResearch Paper

Motivation

In a fork-join network every arriving job is split into several tasks that are processed in parallel and then joined; the job leaves only when its last task is done. Such networks model parallel computing (map-reduce jobs split across machines), assembly and order fulfilment (an order waits for every component), and health care (a patient waits for several test results). When different job types compete for the same parallel resources, the order in which a shared resource serves the types determines how long jobs wait for their slowest task, and therefore how many jobs are in the system.

Optimal control of such networks is hard even with exponential distributions, because the state is the vector of all buffer contents and the dimension grows with the number of types and servers. E. Özkan (arXiv:2002.01496, Mathematics of Operations Research 2022) studies the problem in the conventional heavy-traffic diffusion regime, in which every shared server is critically loaded, and proposes a scheduling policy that tracks the solution of a linear program. The main result is that the policy is asymptotically optimal for the probability that the total holding cost exceeds any threshold. The approach generalizes the network of Figure 2 with a single shared server, controlled by Özkan and Ward (Mathematics of Operations Research 44, 2019), and follows the asymptotic-optimality programme of Bell and Williams (doi:10.1214/aoap/1015345343).

Setting

There are J≥1J\ge1J≥1 job types J\mathcal JJ, III shared servers I\mathcal II and a set of dedicated servers. Shared server iii processes the types Ji\mathcal J_iJi​, ∣Ji∣≥2|\mathcal J_i|\ge2∣Ji​∣≥2; type jjj is processed by the shared servers Ij≠∅\mathcal I_j\neq\emptysetIj​=∅ and by its own dedicated servers Kj\mathcal K_jKj​ (possibly none). A type-jjj job forks into one task per server in Kj∪Ij\mathcal K_j\cup\mathcal I_jKj​∪Ij​. Inter-arrival times of type jjj are uˉjn/λj\bar u_{jn}/\lambda_juˉjn​/λj​ with uˉjn\bar u_{jn}uˉjn​ i.i.d., mean 111 and variance βj2\beta_j^2βj2​; service times are i.i.d. with means 1/μk1/\mu_k1/μk​, 1/μij1/\mu_{ij}1/μij​ and squared coefficients of variation σk2\sigma_k^2σk2​, σij2\sigma_{ij}^2σij2​; all sequences are independent and have exponential moments (Assumption 1).

Let Qk(t)Q_k(t)Qk​(t) and Qij(t)Q_{ij}(t)Qij​(t) be the numbers of tasks waiting in front of dedicated server kkk and of shared server iii (type jjj). The number of type-jjj jobs in the system is Nj=max⁡k∈KjQk∨max⁡i∈IjQijN_j=\max_{k\in\mathcal K_j}Q_k\vee\max_{i\in\mathcal I_j}Q_{ij}Nj​=maxk∈Kj​​Qk​∨maxi∈Ij​​Qij​, and the cost rate is ∑jhjNj\sum_jh_jN_j∑j​hj​Nj​ with hj≥0h_j\ge0hj​≥0. The control is how each shared server divides its effort among its buffers: an admissible policy is head-of-line within each buffer and work-conserving, and it may even anticipate the future (Definition 1).

A sequence of systems indexed by rrr has arrival rates λjr→λj\lambda^r_j\to\lambda_jλjr​→λj​ with every shared server in heavy traffic, ∑j∈Jiλj/μij=1\sum_{j\in\mathcal J_i}\lambda_j/\mu_{ij}=1∑j∈Ji​​λj​/μij​=1 and r(∑j∈Jiλjr/μij−1)→θir(\sum_{j\in\mathcal J_i}\lambda^r_j/\mu_{ij}-1)\to\theta_ir(∑j∈Ji​​λjr​/μij​−1)→θi​, while each dedicated server is either in heavy traffic, r(λjr−μk)→θk∈Rr(\lambda^r_j-\mu_k)\to\theta_k\in\mathbb Rr(λjr​−μk​)→θk​∈R (the set KH\mathcal K^HKH), or in light traffic, →−∞\to-\infty→−∞ (Assumption 2). All systems start empty. Diffusion scaling is N^jr(t)=Njr(r2t)/r\hat N^r_j(t)=N^r_j(r^2t)/rN^jr​(t)=Njr​(r2t)/r, and similarly Q^kr\hat Q^r_kQ^​kr​ and the workload W^ir\hat W^r_iW^ir​ with Wir=∑j∈JiQijr/μijW^r_i=\sum_{j\in\mathcal J_i}Q^r_{ij}/\mu_{ij}Wir​=∑j∈Ji​​Qijr​/μij​.

For b=(qk;wi)≥0b=(q_k;w_i)\ge0b=(qk​;wi​)≥0 the LP (18) minimizes ∑jhjyj\sum_jh_jy_j∑j​hj​yj​ subject to yj≥qky_j\ge q_kyj​≥qk​ (k∈Kjk\in\mathcal K_jk∈Kj​), yj≥qij≥0y_j\ge q_{ij}\ge0yj​≥qij​≥0 and ∑j∈Jiqij/μij=wi\sum_{j\in\mathcal J_i}q_{ij}/\mu_{ij}=w_i∑j∈Ji​​qij​/μij​=wi​; its value is z(b)z(b)z(b). The QP (19) picks the LP optimum of least Euclidean norm. The proposed policy (Definition 2) works in review periods: at the start of a period server iii computes the QP-selected target qij∗q^*_{ij}qij∗​ for the current state. If no buffer exceeds ⌈qij∗⌉\lceil q^*_{ij}\rceil⌈qij∗​⌉, the server serves one job. Otherwise it serves the excess jobs while idling one type mmm that maximizes (qim∗−Qim)/λm(q^*_{im}-Q_{im})/\lambda_m(qim∗​−Qim​)/λm​, until no excess is left.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 16)

With (Q~k,W~i)(\tilde Q_k,\tilde W_i)(Q~​k​,W~i​) the limit of Proposition 2 — a semimartingale reflected Brownian motion (SRBM) with data (R+a1,Θ,Σ,R,0)(\mathbb R^{a_1}_+,\Theta,\Sigma,R,0)(R+a1​​,Θ,Σ,R,0) in the heavy-traffic coordinates and Q~k=0\tilde Q_k=0Q~​k​=0 for light-traffic dedicated servers — for every run of the proposed policy, every ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 and every t≥0t\ge0t≥0,

lim⁡r→∞P(∑jhjN^jr(t)>ϵ)=P(z(Q~(t),W~(t))>ϵ).\lim_{r\to\infty}\mathbf P\Big(\sum_{j}h_j\hat N^r_j(t)>\epsilon\Big)=\mathbf P\big(z(\tilde Q(t),\tilde W(t))>\epsilon\big).r→∞lim​P(j∑​hj​N^jr​(t)>ϵ)=P(z(Q~​(t),W~(t))>ϵ).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 Parts 1–3 and Lemma 2: the LP (18) represents the cost; zzz is Lipschitz; the QP has a unique solution, Lipschitz in bbb, also pathwise.
  2. Proposition 2: under every admissible policy (Q^kr,W^ir)⇒(Q~k,W~i)(\hat Q^r_k,\hat W^r_i)\Rightarrow(\tilde Q_k,\tilde W_i)(Q^​kr​,W^ir​)⇒(Q~​k​,W~i​).
  3. Lemma EC.1.2 and Lemma 5: exponential tail bounds for partial sums and for arrival and service processes after the review epochs.
  4. Lemma 4: with probability tending to one every review period in [0,r2T][0,r^2T][0,r2T] is short and stable, and ends near the target.
  5. Proposition 3: ∥∑jhjN^jr−z(Q^r,W^r)∥T→0\|\sum_jh_j\hat N^r_j-z(\hat Q^r,\hat W^r)\|_T\to0∥∑j​hj​N^jr​−z(Q^​r,W^r)∥T​→0 in probability under the proposed policy.

Significance

Theorem 2, together with the lower bound of Theorem 1 (which holds for every admissible policy and is not part of this mission), shows that the proposed policy is asymptotically optimal for the objective P(∑jhjNj(t)>ϵ)\mathbf P(\sum_jh_jN_j(t)>\epsilon)P(∑j​hj​Nj​(t)>ϵ) simultaneously for all ϵ\epsilonϵ and ttt. The paper then derives asymptotic optimality for the discounted cost (Theorem 3). The policy needs only the solution of an LP and a QP at review epochs, so it scales to large networks where dynamic programming does not.

The results are proved in the paper, with the exception of Proposition 2, whose proof is omitted as following "from standard methodology"; its milestone is therefore a statement the paper asserts. None of the results is formalized. A formal development would produce reusable pieces: Lipschitz sensitivity of LP values and of minimum-norm LP solutions, Chernoff-type bounds for maxima of i.i.d. partial sums, and a precise model of a fork-join network under head-of-line, work-conserving control.

Difficulty

The cost ∑jhjNj\sum_jh_jN_j∑j​hj​Nj​ is not a function of the workloads alone, so the usual heavy-traffic argument (diffusion limit of the workload plus a continuous mapping) only gives a lower bound. Achieving it requires state-space collapse for the cost: the buffers in front of each shared server must stay within o(r)o(r)o(r) of the LP-optimal split at all times up to r2Tr^2Tr2T, under a policy whose review periods are random and whose target moves with the state. The proof controls up to Mr=O(r2)M^r=O(r^2)Mr=O(r2) review periods per server at once, which needs tail bounds of order rke−Crr^ke^{-Cr}rke−Cr uniformly over periods. The light-traffic behaviour of a shared server that idles one type during a Step-3 period depends on heavy traffic of the full server. The natural shortcut — proving tightness of the scaled buffers directly — fails, because the LP may have many optimal solutions; the QP selection and its Lipschitz property (Lemma 1 Part 3) are what make the target trackable.

Formalization scope

  • Indices are Fin J, Fin I, Fin K (0-based); dedicated servers carry an owner map, and the standing structure (∣Ij∣≥1|\mathcal I_j|\ge1∣Ij​∣≥1, ∣Ji∣≥2|\mathcal J_i|\ge2∣Ji​∣≥2, max⁡jhj>0\max_jh_j>0maxj​hj​>0, positive rates) is part of the Network definition. Sums over Ji\mathcal J_iJi​ and maxima over Ij\mathcal I_jIj​ range over incident pairs only.
  • Time is real (t≥0t\ge0t≥0); the systems are indexed by r∈Nr\in\mathbb Nr∈N. Counting processes are N\mathbb NN-valued suprema of partial sums. Review epochs take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • A run satisfies the dynamics (2)–(7) of Definition 1 and the empty start for almost every sample path. Work conservation (6) is encoded pathwise on intervals.
  • z(b)z(b)z(b) is the infimum of the LP objective; the QP optimum is a predicate, never a choice function. The policy is encoded with the paper's arbitrary choices left existential. "In an admissible and non-preemptive way" is read as: only buffers in excess of ⌈qij∗⌉\lceil q^*_{ij}\rceil⌈qij∗​⌉ are served, the idled type is not served, and no two jobs are in partial service at once.
  • The SRBM uses the published definitions Reiman84.QueueLength.IsDriftedBM and IsReflectionPair; since RRR is a positive diagonal matrix it is absorbed into the regulator. Weak convergence in Proposition 2 is the published PuhaWardFluid.Limit.ConvInDist.
  • Added hypotheses: Assumptions 1–2 and the empty start everywhere; Σ\SigmaΣ positive definite (asserted on p. 10) in Theorem 2 and Proposition 2; finite second moments of the primitives. No continuity-point hypothesis P(z=ϵ)=0\mathbf P(z=\epsilon)=0P(z=ϵ)=0 is added to Theorem 2.
  • Trivializing formalizations are excluded: the goal is stated for every run of the policy and every SRBM realization (not for some), the policy predicate imposes only the rules of Definition 2, zzz and q∗q^*q∗ are the LP value and the QP minimizer, and all constants in Lemmas 4, 5 and EC.1.2 are chosen before rrr.
  • Not posed: Theorems 1 and 3, Proposition 1, Lemma 3, Lemmas 6–8, display (35) and §6. Contributions of the LP/QP sensitivity results and of the Chernoff bounds are useful beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • E. Özkan, Control of Fork-Join Processing Networks with Multiple Job Types and Parallel Shared Resources, arXiv:2002.01496v1, 2020; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.01496
  • E. Özkan, A. R. Ward, On the control of fork-join networks, Mathematics of Operations Research 44:532–564, 2019.
  • S. L. Bell, R. J. Williams, Dynamic scheduling of a system with two parallel servers in heavy traffic with resource pooling: asymptotic optimality of a threshold policy, Annals of Applied Probability 11:608–649, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1015345343
  • R. J. Williams, An invariance principle for semimartingale reflecting Brownian motions in an orthant, Queueing Systems 30:5–25, 1998.
  • W. Whitt, Stochastic-Process Limits: An Introduction to Stochastic-Process Limits and Their Application to Queues, Springer, 2002.
21 thms2 active usersReviewed
Control TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On Singular Control for Lévy Processes: Under a Convex Running Cost, the Barrier Strategy at b* = inf{b : ρ(b) + C ≥ 0} Is Optimal over All Admissible StrategiesResearch Paper

Motivation

A controller watches a one-dimensional random state XXX (an inventory level, a cash reserve, an exchange rate) and may push it upward at any time, paying a proportional cost CCC per unit of push. A running cost f(Ut)f(U_t)f(Ut​) is paid on the controlled state UUU. Minimizing the discounted sum of the two costs is the classical singular control problem, called singular because the optimal push is typically not absolutely continuous in time. Since Beneš, Shepp and Witsenhausen (1980) the expected answer has been a barrier strategy: reflect the state at a fixed lower level b∗b^*b∗ and do nothing above it.

For Brownian motion and diffusions this is well understood. For processes with jumps, the known proofs rely on the scale function of a spectrally one-sided Lévy process (jumps of one sign only). Yamazaki (Math. Oper. Res. 2017) solved the spectrally negative case this way. Financial and inventory data have jumps of both signs, and for a general Lévy process no scale function exists. Noba and Yamazaki (arXiv:2008.03021, Math. Oper. Res. 2023) prove that a barrier strategy is still optimal for a general Lévy process when the running cost is convex, and that the optimal barrier solves one explicit equation.

Setting

Let X=(Xt)t≥0X=(X_t)_{t\ge0}X=(Xt​)t≥0​ be a real Lévy process with X0=0X_0=0X0​=0, described by its triplet (γ,σ,Π)(\gamma,\sigma,\Pi)(γ,σ,Π): E[eiuXt]=e−tΨ(u)\mathbb E[e^{iuX_t}]=e^{-t\Psi(u)}E[eiuXt​]=e−tΨ(u) with

Ψ(u)=−iγu+12σ2u2+∫R∖{0}(1−eiuz+iuz 1{∣z∣<1}) Π(dz).\Psi(u)=-i\gamma u+\tfrac12\sigma^2u^2+\int_{\mathbb R\setminus\{0\}}\big(1-e^{iuz}+iuz\,1_{\{|z|<1\}}\big)\,\Pi(dz).Ψ(u)=−iγu+21​σ2u2+∫R∖{0}​(1−eiuz+iuz1{∣z∣<1}​)Π(dz).

Under Px\mathbb P_xPx​ the process starts at xxx, i.e. it is x+Xx+Xx+X.

A strategy is a nondecreasing, right-continuous process RRR adapted to the natural filtration of XXX, with R0−=0R_{0-}=0R0−​=0; an initial jump R0>0R_0>0R0​>0 is allowed. The controlled process is Ut=Xt+RtU_t=X_t+R_tUt​=Xt​+Rt​ (2.2). For a discount rate q>0q>0q>0, a unit cost C∈RC\in\mathbb RC∈R and a running cost fff, the cost of π=R\pi=Rπ=R from xxx is

vπ(x)=Ex[∫0∞e−qtf(Ut) dt+C∫[0,∞)e−qt dRt](2.3),v_\pi(x)=\mathbb E_x\Big[\int_0^\infty e^{-qt}f(U_t)\,dt+C\int_{[0,\infty)}e^{-qt}\,dR_t\Big]\qquad(2.3),vπ​(x)=Ex​[∫0∞​e−qtf(Ut​)dt+C∫[0,∞)​e−qtdRt​](2.3),

and π\piπ is admissible if the same expectation with ∣f∣|f|∣f∣ in place of fff and without CCC is finite (2.4). The value function is v(x)=inf⁡πvπ(x)v(x)=\inf_\pi v_\pi(x)v(x)=infπ​vπ​(x).

The barrier strategy at bbb is Rtb=−inf⁡s≤t{(Xs−b)∧0}R^b_t=-\inf_{s\le t}\{(X_s-b)\wedge0\}Rtb​=−infs≤t​{(Xs​−b)∧0}; then UbU^bUb is XXX reflected at the lower barrier bbb, and its cost is vb(x)v_b(x)vb​(x) (3.6). With f+′f'_+f+′​ the right derivative of fff and U0U^0U0 the process reflected at 000 and started at 000, set

ρ(b)=E[∫0∞e−qtf+′(Ut0+b) dt] (3.9),b∗=inf⁡{b∈R:ρ(b)+C≥0} (3.8).\rho(b)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^\infty e^{-qt}f'_+(U^0_t+b)\,dt\Big]\ (3.9),\qquad b^*=\inf\{b\in\mathbb R:\rho(b)+C\ge0\}\ (3.8).ρ(b)=E[∫0∞​e−qtf+′​(Ut0​+b)dt] (3.9),b∗=inf{b∈R:ρ(b)+C≥0} (3.8).

Standing assumptions: fff is convex, of polynomial growth, and f+′(−∞)<−Cq<f+′(∞)f'_+(-\infty)<-Cq<f'_+(\infty)f+′​(−∞)<−Cq<f+′​(∞) (Assumption 1); ∫R∖(−1,1)eθˉ∣z∣Π(dz)<∞\int_{\mathbb R\setminus(-1,1)}e^{\bar\theta|z|}\Pi(dz)<\infty∫R∖(−1,1)​eθˉ∣z∣Π(dz)<∞ for some θˉ>0\bar\theta>0θˉ>0 (Assumption 2(ii)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 13)

For every starting point xxx, the barrier strategy at b∗b^*b∗ is admissible and

vπb∗(x)≤vπ(x)for every strategy π admissible from x,v_{\pi^{b^*}}(x)\le v_\pi(x)\qquad\text{for every strategy }\pi\text{ admissible from }x,vπb∗​(x)≤vπ​(x)for every strategy π admissible from x,

under Assumptions 1 and 2(ii) only. The paper first assumes XXX is not a driftless compound Poisson process (Assumption 2(i)) and, for unbounded variation, that f∈C2f\in C^2f∈C2 with f′′f''f′′ of polynomial growth (Assumption 3); §4.2 and §5 remove both, and the goal carries neither.

Milestones

The fifteen milestones follow the paper's proof:

  • the barrier strategies and b∗b^*b∗: Lemmas 2–4, the finiteness of b∗b^*b∗ (p. 6), Lemma 6 (derivative of vbv_bvb​ in the barrier), Theorem 1 (optimality among barriers), Lemma 8 (convexity, C1C^1C1 and smooth fit of vb∗v_{b^*}vb∗​), Lemma 9;
  • verification: Proposition 1 (the verification lemma) and Lemmas 10–11 (the variational inequality for vb∗v_{b^*}vb∗​);
  • the approximation of §4.2: Lemmas 12, 14, 15;
  • the compound Poisson case of §5: Lemma 16.

Significance

The theorem gives a complete solution, for all Lévy processes with exponential moments, of the singular control problem with convex running cost: the optimal policy is a barrier, and the barrier is the root of a monotone function of bbb. It contains the Brownian, spectrally negative and spectrally positive cases, and processes of bounded and unbounded variation, subordinators and compound Poisson processes. Because ρ\rhoρ depends only on the law of the reflected process U0U^0U0, b∗b^*b∗ can be computed by Monte Carlo or, when the Wiener–Hopf factorization is known, by transform inversion (Remark 4).

The result is proved in the paper; it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a Lévy-process layer that Mathlib does not yet have: reflected Lévy processes, first-passage times, and an Itô formula for semimartingales with jumps used against Lebesgue–Stieltjes integrators. The milestones isolate statements that do not need all of it: Lemma 12 is real analysis about a smoothed convex function, Theorem 1 compares barrier strategies only, and Proposition 1 is a reusable verification lemma for singular control.

Difficulty

The standard route computes vbv_bvb​ in closed form, picks b∗b^*b∗ by smooth fit, and checks the variational inequality. For a general Lévy process vbv_bvb​ has no closed form: the scale function, which carries the one-sided proofs, does not exist when jumps of both signs are present. The paper works instead with derivatives of vbv_bvb​ with respect to the barrier, expressed through the first down-crossing time τb−\tau^-_bτb−​ (Lemma 6). This needs the regularity of 000 for R∖{0}\mathbb R\setminus\{0\}R∖{0}, which fails for driftless compound Poisson processes, hence the separate treatment of §5. In the unbounded-variation case, vb∗v_{b^*}vb∗​ is C2C^2C2 only if fff is, so the verification lemma cannot be applied directly. The paper smooths fff, solves the smoothed problems, and passes to the limit through the barriers b(ε)∗b^*_{(\varepsilon)}b(ε)∗​ and the values v(ε)v^{(\varepsilon)}v(ε) (Lemmas 14–15).

Formalization scope

Two definition files. SingCtrlLevy.Barrier.Levy gives the triplet, Ψ\PsiΨ, the Lévy process (measurable, X0=0X_0=0X0​=0, independent and stationary increments, càdlàg paths, characteristic function e−tΨe^{-t\Psi}e−tΨ), bounded variation, the driftless compound Poisson triplet, Assumptions 2(ii) and 3, the classes CpolynC^n_{\mathrm{poly}}Cpolyn​ and the generator L\mathcal LL. SingCtrlLevy.Barrier.Model gives strategies, the cost, the barrier strategy, ρ\rhoρ, b∗b^*b∗, τb−\tau^-_bτb−​, Assumption 1, the smoothing f(ε)f^{(\varepsilon)}f(ε) of (4.35) and Xt[ε]=Xt+εtX^{[\varepsilon]}_t=X_t+\varepsilon tXt[ε]​=Xt​+εt.

Conventions:

  • One probability space with X0=0X_0=0X0​=0; Px\mathbb P_xPx​ is the law of x+Xx+Xx+X.
  • Time is R≥0\mathbb R_{\ge0}R≥0​; time integrals are over [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  • Admissibility is per starting point: the barrier strategy from xxx has R0b=(b−x)+R^b_0=(b-x)^+R0b​=(b−x)+, so the admissible set is read as strategies chosen for the start xxx with (2.4) at that xxx.
  • dRdRdR is the Lebesgue–Stieltjes measure of the path extended by 000 to negative times, so the initial jump R0R_0R0​ is charged at t=0t=0t=0.
  • (2.4) is a lower Lebesgue integral in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; costs are Bochner integrals, genuine exactly under (2.4).
  • vvv is valued in the extended reals; τb−\tau^-_bτb−​ is valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with e−q∞=0e^{-q\infty}=0e−q∞=0.
  • f±′f'_\pmf±′​ are one-sided derivatives; Assumption 1(iii) is written as "some f+′(y)<−Cqf'_+(y)<-Cqf+′​(y)<−Cq and some f+′(y)>−Cqf'_+(y)>-Cqf+′​(y)>−Cq", equivalent to the limit form since f+′f'_+f+′​ is nondecreasing.
  • Milestones of §§2–4 carry Assumption 2(i), standing until the end of §4. Lemmas 9, 14 and 15 carry unbounded variation (the scope of §4.2, and of Assumption 3 in Lemma 9). Lemma 16 carries the driftless compound Poisson hypothesis instead of Assumption 2(i).

b∗b^*b∗ is the infimum of the set {b:ρ(b)+C≥0}\{b:\rho(b)+C\ge0\}{b:ρ(b)+C≥0}, never "the optimal barrier", and πb∗\pi^{b^*}πb∗ is the explicit reflection at b∗b^*b∗. The goal ranges over every nondecreasing, right-continuous, adapted strategy satisfying (2.4), and the value function is never replaced by a junk infimum. None of the three trivializes the statement.

Welcome contributions: measurability and integrability lemmas for reflected Lévy processes, first-passage regularity (Lemma 1 of the paper), an Itô formula for C2C^2C2 functions of Lévy processes plus nondecreasing càdlàg controls, and the real-analysis lemmas on f(ε)f^{(\varepsilon)}f(ε). The Lévy layer and the verification lemma can be reused beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • K. Noba and K. Yamazaki, On singular control for Lévy processes, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023; arXiv:2008.03021v3 (2022). https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.03021
  • K. Yamazaki, Inventory control for spectrally positive Lévy demand processes, Mathematics of Operations Research 42(1), 212–237, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2016.0802
  • V. E. Beneš, L. A. Shepp and H. S. Witsenhausen, Some solvable stochastic control problems, Stochastics 4(1), 39–83, 1980. https://doi.org/10.1080/17442508008833156
  • A. E. Kyprianou, Fluctuations of Lévy Processes with Applications, 2nd ed., Springer, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-37632-0
  • P. Protter, Stochastic Integration and Differential Equations, 2nd ed., Springer, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-10061-5
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Negotiating Government-to-Government Food Importing Contracts: A Nash Bargaining Framework: With Sufficiently Many Suppliers, Forward Negotiations Beat Ad Hoc Negotiations for the BuyerResearch Paper

Why compare contracting times?

Food importers that also produce domestically must decide whether to commit to purchases before the domestic harvest or negotiate after observing it. This choice matters when suppliers must plant before the harvest is known: a late negotiation leaves them exposed to unsold production, while an early contract commits the importer to purchases it may no longer need. Mu, Hu, Reddy and Gavirneni model this problem using India's imports of pulses as motivation and compare the two contracting times within the same bargaining framework (Mu et al., accepted manuscript, 2022). The mission asks how the comparison changes when the importer bargains with several suppliers at once.

The source paper distinguishes ad hoc negotiations, held after the buyer's internal yield is observed, from forward negotiations, held before yield is observed. A single forward supplier need not improve the buyer's expected net utility relative to a single ad hoc supplier. Proposition 3 identifies a supplier-count effect: with sufficiently many suppliers, forward negotiations yield the buyer more utility. Its claim concerns the equilibria of the actual contracting games, including the suppliers' production choices and the payments determined by Nash bargaining (Mu et al., Proposition 3, PDF p. 9).

The model

The buyer has demand one and an uncertain internal yield YYY uniformly distributed on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Consuming x∈[0,1]x\in[0,1]x∈[0,1] gives utility u(x)=2x−x2u(x)=2x-x^2u(x)=2x−x2; any supply beyond demand is discarded. Every supplier has the same positive unit production cost ccc and produces before YYY is realized. The buyer has bargaining power γ∈(0,1)\gamma\in(0,1)γ∈(0,1), leaving 1−γ1-\gamma1−γ for a supplier. This mission studies the positive-production regime 0<c<1−γ0<c<1-\gamma0<c<1−γ (Mu et al., §§3–4, PDF pp. 3–8).

In the all-ad-hoc game, each of l≥1l\ge1l≥1 suppliers chooses a production quantity kkk before yield is observed. Once Y=yY=yY=y is known, each supplier bargains with the buyer over a purchase q(y)q(y)q(y) and payment t(y)t(y)t(y). The other l−1l-1l−1 negotiations are assumed successful and their agreed quantities remain fixed when the buyer and one focal supplier bargain. Each supplier's expected profit is its expected payment less ckckck. A symmetric equilibrium uses the same production and yield-dependent agreement for every supplier; no supplier can increase expected profit by changing its production quantity and then bargaining under the same other agreements.

In the all-forward game, all lll suppliers bargain before yield over a quantity qqq and payment ttt. The other contracts remain fixed in a focal negotiation. Suppliers produce exactly their contracted quantities, as §4.1 assumes. The buyer's expected net utility is the utility of its internal yield plus all purchases, capped at one, less all payments; one supplier's profit is t−cqt-cqt−cq. Both games use the generalized Nash bargaining product gBγgS1−γg_B^\gamma g_S^{1-\gamma}gBγ​gS1−γ​ of the buyer's and supplier's gains over disagreement, maximized over individually rational agreements (Mu et al., §4.1, PDF pp. 7–8).

Formalization targets

The main target is Proposition 3. Write UBa(l)U_B^a(l)UBa​(l) and UBf(l)U_B^f(l)UBf​(l) for the buyer's equilibrium net utilities in the all-ad-hoc and all-forward games, and USa(l)U_S^a(l)USa​(l) and USf(l)U_S^f(l)USf​(l) for one supplier's equilibrium profit. For each regime, increasing lll strictly improves the buyer's net utility and strictly reduces the suppliers' aggregate profit:

UBr(l+1)>UBr(l),(l+1)USr(l+1)<lUSr(l)(r∈{a,f}, l≥1).U_B^r(l+1)>U_B^r(l),\qquad (l+1)U_S^r(l+1)<lU_S^r(l)\quad(r\in\{a,f\},\ l\ge1).UBr​(l+1)>UBr​(l),(l+1)USr​(l+1)<lUSr​(l)(r∈{a,f}, l≥1).

In addition, there is a positive threshold l‾\underline ll​ beyond which the buyer prefers forward negotiations:

UBf(l)>UBa(l)for every integer l>l‾.U_B^f(l)>U_B^a(l)\qquad\text{for every integer }l>\underline l.UBf​(l)>UBa​(l)for every integer l>l​.

The target quantifies over every symmetric equilibrium and asserts that equilibria exist for every positive supplier count. The milestone path records the source's ad hoc stage outcome, pure ad hoc production quantity, single-supplier ad hoc result, pure forward quantity, single-supplier forward result, four multiple-supplier payoff formulas, and the quadratic payoff-gap threshold. The four formulas are intermediate identities about the equilibria; the goal remains the comparison of the underlying games (Mu et al., Lemmas 1–2 and Propositions 2–3, PDF pp. 5–9; proof of Proposition 3, PDF pp. 14–15).

What the result gives

The result identifies a precise limit to the single-supplier comparison. Forward contracts coordinate production with purchase commitments, but the buyer also commits before knowing its own yield. Proposition 3 says that competition among sufficiently many suppliers changes the buyer's expected payoff comparison even though the buyer's exogenous bargaining power γ\gammaγ is unchanged. For the model, this supports analyzing supplier count and contracting time together rather than treating them as independent decisions (Mu et al., §4.1, PDF p. 9).

The paper proves these claims analytically. Here the definitions and theorem statements compile in Lean, while the proposed theorems remain open proof obligations. Completing the mission would machine-check the existence, payoff identities, monotonicity claims, and threshold for the stated equilibrium concepts. Its quantity-and-payment Nash bargaining definition and symmetric-game interface can also support related sourcing models. No machine-checked proof of this paper's Proposition 3 is claimed by this draft.

Central difficulty

Holding a supplier's agreement fixed changes the buyer's disagreement payoff in every other negotiation. Consequently, the buyer's gain in one bargain depends on the quantities already agreed with the remaining suppliers. A direct comparison that treats each supplier as an independent copy of the single-supplier game misses that dependence. The ad hoc game adds a second stage: production is chosen before yield, while purchases and payments are determined after yield for every feasible realized value. A proof must keep these two decisions and the changing disagreement points consistent across supplier counts (Mu et al., §4.1 and Appendix B, PDF pp. 7–9, 13–15).

Formalization scope

All monetary amounts, quantities and utility values are real numbers. Supplier count lll is a positive natural number. Uniform-yield expectation is represented by the interval integral ∫01f(y) dy\int_0^1 f(y)\,dy∫01​f(y)dy. Consumption is capped at demand one. Only the two pure games are represented: lll ad hoc suppliers and no forward suppliers, or lll forward suppliers and no ad hoc suppliers. Agreements in the ad hoc game are functions of yield, constrained on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The Nash product is compared only over feasible, individually rational pairs, where both bases of the real powers are nonnegative.

The model uses the purchase cap of equation (A.2): an ad hoc supplier cannot sell beyond the buyer's remaining need. A focal negotiation holds other suppliers at their agreed quantities, and a production deviation holds those other agreements fixed, the passive-beliefs reading of Appendix B. Forward suppliers produce their contracted quantities. These choices are recorded explicitly because changing any of them changes the formulas. The paper writes c≤1−γc\le1-\gammac≤1−γ in its standing focus; the goal uses c<1−γc<1-\gammac<1−γ, since the stated strict ad hoc monotonicity fails at equality. The printed nnn in the forward supplier-profit formula of the proof of Proposition 3 is read as lll, the count used throughout that paragraph. PDF pages are indexed from one because this accepted manuscript has no printed page numbers.

The goal cannot be satisfied by declaring the four payoff expressions to be the games' values: the equilibrium predicates specify Nash bargains, production incentives, and the resulting integrated payoffs independently of the printed closed forms. Likewise, the existence clause prevents the universal comparisons from holding because there are no equilibria. Contributions that establish stage bargaining, equilibrium existence and characterization, integral payoff identities, or the algebraic threshold all advance the result. The mixed forward/ad-hoc regime, buyer's-remorse extension, and hybrid supplier cases are outside this mission (Mu et al., §§4–5 and Appendix A, PDF pp. 8–13).

Selected references

  • Liying Mu, Bin Hu, A. Amarender Reddy and Srinagesh Gavirneni, Negotiating Government-to-Government Food Importing Contracts: A Nash Bargaining Framework, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2022, accepted manuscript. doi:10.1287/msom.2021.1027.
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Algorithmic Game TheoryControl TheoryOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Investment in the Common Good: Free Rider Effect and the Stability of Mixed Strategy Equilibria: A Mixed Strategy Two-Stage Subgame Perfect Equilibrium Survives Moderate AsymmetryResearch Paper

Motivation

Many goods are maintained by several parties at once: a shared infrastructure, a fishery, an industry's reputation, a public research base. Each party bears the full cost of its own investment while every party enjoys the benefit, so each prefers that someone else pay. This free rider problem is classically studied as a war of attrition, and continuous-time versions are a standard tool in operations research for timing decisions under uncertainty.

Kim and Kwon (arXiv:2208.11217, published in Operations Research, 2024) model the stock of the common good as a declining diffusion and let two players invest in it at fixed plus proportional cost. Their point concerns the stability of mixed strategy equilibria, in which players randomize the time of investment. When the good can be invested in only once, Georgiadis, Kim and Kwon (Games and Economic Behavior 131, 2022) showed that any asymmetry in costs destroys the mixed equilibrium; Theorem 1 of the present paper recovers this. When investment can be repeated indefinitely, an impulse control game, the paper shows that a mixed equilibrium survives moderate asymmetry. The verification argument extends the single-player impulse control analysis of Alvarez and Lempa (SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 47(2), 2008) to a randomized two-player setting.

Setting

The stock XXX lives on an interval I=(a,b)\mathcal I=(a,b)I=(a,b) with a>−∞a>-\inftya>−∞ and, absent investment, solves dXt=μ(Xt) dt+σ(Xt) dWtdX_t=\mu(X_t)\,dt+\sigma(X_t)\,dW_tdXt​=μ(Xt​)dt+σ(Xt​)dWt​ with μ<0<σ\mu<0<\sigmaμ<0<σ, natural boundaries, Lipschitz coefficients with linear growth, and the transversality condition Ex[∣Xt∣e−rt]→0\mathbb E_x[|X_t|e^{-rt}]\to0Ex​[∣Xt​∣e−rt]→0. Write Af=12σ2f′′+μf′−rf\mathcal Af=\tfrac12\sigma^2f''+\mu f'-rfAf=21​σ2f′′+μf′−rf, let ψ\psiψ and φ\varphiφ be the increasing and decreasing positive solutions of Af=0\mathcal Af=0Af=0, and let (Rrπ)(x)=Ex∫0∞π(Xt)e−rtdt(R_r\pi)(x)=\mathbb E_x\int_0^\infty\pi(X_t)e^{-rt}dt(Rr​π)(x)=Ex​∫0∞​π(Xt​)e−rtdt for the common flow profit π\piπ, continuous and increasing.

Player i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} may invest at any time, paying ci+kζc_i+k\zetaci​+kζ to raise the stock by ζ≥0\zeta\ge0ζ≥0, with c1>c2>0c_1>c_2>0c1​>c2​>0 and k>0k>0k>0. Time is split into periods, each ending at an investment. Players randomize through a uniform randomizer per player and period: an investment occurs when a survival process Mm,t(i)M^{(i)}_{m,t}Mm,t(i)​ falls below the randomizer. Simultaneous attempts are settled by a fair coin. Player iii's payoff is the expected discounted profit minus its own discounted investment costs, (22).

The profile ν∗\nu^*ν∗ has threshold θ∗\theta^*θ∗, atom probability qqq and targets z1,z2z_1,z_2z1​,z2​. In the first stage of a period, player 1 waits and player 2 invests with probability qqq when the stock reaches θ∗\theta^*θ∗ from above. In the second stage each player iii invests at hazard rate λi(Xt)\lambda_i(X_t)λi​(Xt​), positive exactly on the common mixed region Γ=(a,θ∗)\Gamma=(a,\theta^*)Γ=(a,θ∗). Every investment by player iii raises the stock to ziz_izi​. With I(x)=((Rrπ)′(x)−k)/φ′(x)I(x)=((R_r\pi)'(x)-k)/\varphi'(x)I(x)=((Rr​π)′(x)−k)/φ′(x) and J(x)=(Rrπ)(x)−kx−I(x)φ(x)J(x)=(R_r\pi)(x)-kx-I(x)\varphi(x)J(x)=(Rr​π)(x)−kx−I(x)φ(x), Assumption 5 states that θ∗<z2\theta^*<z_2θ∗<z2​ solve I(z2)=I(θ∗)I(z_2)=I(\theta^*)I(z2​)=I(θ∗) and J(z2)−J(θ∗)=c2J(z_2)-J(\theta^*)=c_2J(z2​)−J(θ∗)=c2​. These are the single-player optimal thresholds for cost c2c_2c2​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Under the standing assumptions and Assumptions 1, 2, 4 and 5, there is c^>c2\hat c>c_2c^>c2​ such that for every c1∈(c2,c^)c_1\in(c_2,\hat c)c1​∈(c2​,c^) there are z1z_1z1​ and qqq with

0<q<1,θ∗<x^<z1<z2,0<q<1,\qquad \theta^*<\hat x<z_1<z_2,0<q<1,θ∗<x^<z1​<z2​,

together with payoff functions satisfying the §4.2 conditions, such that ν∗(θ∗,z1,z2,q)\nu^*(\theta^*,z_1,z_2,q)ν∗(θ∗,z1​,z2​,q) with the rates (29) is a subgame perfect equilibrium. Here x^\hat xx^ is the minimizer of III (Lemma 2). The goal leaves c^\hat cc^ unquantified, as the paper does: the §4.4 example gives c^≈0.01729\hat c\approx0.01729c^≈0.01729 for c2=0.015c_2=0.015c2​=0.015.

Milestones

Lemma 2 (shape of III, JJJ) and identity (B.20); Lemma B.8 (i) and (ii) (closed-form payoff functions satisfy the §4.2 conditions); Lemmas B.7 and B.6 and Theorem 2 (the verification theorem); Lemma B.8 (scalar conditions (B.21)–(B.23) suffice); parts (i) and (ii) of the proof of Theorem 3 (the scalar conditions hold for c1c_1c1​ near c2c_2c2​).

Significance

The result shows that the instability of mixed equilibria in timing games of public good provision is an artefact of one-shot investment. With repeated investment, player 2 can promise a probability qqq of investing at θ∗\theta^*θ∗, which raises player 1's continuation value and pulls player 1's investment threshold to θ∗\theta^*θ∗, so that both players share the same mixed region. Theorem 2 is, to the authors' knowledge, the first verification theorem for a mixed strategy equilibrium of an impulse control game. Proposition 7 of the paper compares this equilibrium with a pure strategy one from a social planner's view, and it presupposes Theorem 3.

Theorem 3 and its lemmas are proved in the paper. None of it is formalized in any proof assistant. A formalization would provide a machine-checked randomized impulse game, with periods, survival processes, tie coins and deviations adapted to a player's own information. It would also provide a verification theorem in that setting and the real-analysis chain behind the explicit construction. The diffusion layer reuses the published definitions of Kwon's variable contributions game (same authors, same model).

Difficulty

The analytic half (Lemma 2, Lemma B.8, the proof of Theorem 3) is real analysis on φ\varphiφ, RrπR_r\piRr​π, III and JJJ. Its delicate point is the global maximum of U^1(z)−kz\hat U_1(z)-kzU^1​(z)−kz: the local maximum at z1z_1z1​ beats the boundary value at θ∗\theta^*θ∗ only under (B.23), which holds only for c1c_1c1​ close to c2c_2c2​.

The verification half is the hard part. The obvious approach, a Dynkin formula on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) for the candidate payoff, does not apply. The opponent's investments arrive at a state-dependent hazard rate, so the argument must kill the process at that rate within each period and then sum the per-period identities. The limit over periods needs monotone convergence, using Tm→∞T_m\to\inftyTm​→∞ and the lower bound π≥πL\pi\ge\pi_Lπ≥πL​. Player 2's atom at θ∗\theta^*θ∗ creates a discontinuity in time of player 1's payoff, and a deviation by player 1 at exactly that instant produces a tie whose expected value must be bounded with the boundary condition U1(θ∗)=qU1(z2)+(1−q)V1(θ∗)U_1(\theta^*)=qU_1(z_2)+(1-q)V_1(\theta^*)U1​(θ∗)=qU1​(z2​)+(1−q)V1​(θ∗).

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses the published VarContrib.RegularMPE.Model, Setting (μ, σ, π, k, r, I, x₀, the generator gen, the resolvent R, the controlled state equation IsStateSol) and EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral. Everything else lives in the namespace InvestCommonGood.MixedTSSPE, in three definition files. Model holds S′S'S′, m′m'm′, LLL, III, JJJ, the standing assumptions and Assumptions 1, 2, 4, 5. Game holds the randomizers, plays, ν∗\nu^*ν∗, deviations, the payoff (22) and the SPE. Conditions holds the §4.2 conditions, (28), (29) and the closed forms of Lemma B.8.

Committed conventions:

  • players are 0 (player 1) and 1 (player 2); times are ℝ≥0, and random times are WithTop ℝ≥0, where ⊤ means never;
  • the cumulative hazard takes values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞];
  • the SPE is read as a Nash equilibrium of the subgame from every state x∈Ix\in\mathcal Ix∈I and either stage;
  • a deviating player sees the controlled path and its own randomizers, but not the opponent's randomizers or the coins;
  • payoffs are compared only when the profit is integrable and the cost series is summable with an integrable sum;
  • every equilibrium statement holds for every play satisfying the play relations, and the existence of plays (solutions of the controlled state equation) is not posed.

Standing hypotheses beyond the printed text, each used by the paper without proof:

  • Rrπ∈C2(I)R_r\pi\in C^2(\mathcal I)Rr​π∈C2(I) with A(Rrπ)+π=0\mathcal A(R_r\pi)+\pi=0A(Rr​π)+π=0;
  • the resolvent representation (B.19);
  • the hitting-time normalization of φ\varphiφ and ψ\psiψ.

Pinned readings: Assumption 5 includes θ∗<z2\theta^*<z_2θ∗<z2​, and Assumption 4 includes the convergence of ∫xbφρm′\int_x^b\varphi\rho m'∫xb​φρm′. The §4.2 conditions include positivity of the denominators of (29) on (a,θ∗)(a,\theta^*)(a,θ∗).

The goal concludes the equilibrium property of the randomized game itself. "There exist z1z_1z1​, qqq satisfying (B.21)–(B.23)" or "the §4.2 conditions are satisfiable" are milestones, not substitutes for the goal. Contributions are welcome on either half: the real-analysis chain is self-contained, and the verification lemmas are reusable for other randomized timing games.

Selected references

  • Y. Kim, H. D. Kwon, Investment in the common good: free rider effect and the stability of mixed strategy equilibria, arXiv:2208.11217v1, 2022; Operations Research, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2208.11217
  • H. D. Kwon, Game of variable contributions to the common good under uncertainty, Operations Research, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.00500
  • L. H. R. Alvarez, J. Lempa, On the optimal stochastic impulse control of linear diffusions, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 47(2) 703–732, 2008.
  • G. Georgiadis, Y. Kim, H. D. Kwon, The absence of attrition in a war of attrition under complete information, Games and Economic Behavior 131 171–185, 2022.
  • N. Touzi, N. Vieille, Continuous-time Dynkin games with mixed strategies, SIAM Journal on Control and Optimization 41(4) 1073–1088, 2002.
  • A. N. Borodin, P. Salminen, Handbook of Brownian Motion — Facts and Formulae, Birkhäuser, Basel, 1996.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Offering Memories to Sell Goods? Pricing and Welfare Implications of Experiential Retail: A Sufficiently Low-Quality Free Experience Raises Both the Monopoly Retailer's Profit and Consumer WelfareResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers increasingly pair products with free in-store experiences: yoga classes at Lululemon, playgrounds at Toys "R" Us, cooking classes at Whole Foods. The experience is free to anyone who travels to the store, so it attracts buyers and free riders (visitors who enjoy the experience without buying) alike. The retailer earns revenue only from product sales, but pays for every visit to the experience. Whether a free experience pays for itself, and whether consumers gain from it, is the question of Mutlu, El-Amine and Sahin (SSRN 4617261; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023, doi:10.1287/msom.2021.0339).

The paper models the joint choice of experience and product with the multivariate logit (MVL) model of Russell and Petersen (2000), which builds a global choice model over baskets from conditional logit choices, via Besag's (1974) characterization of joint distributions from conditionals and the autologistic model of Cox (1972). The monopoly analysis (§3.1) yields two results: Theorem 1 on the optimal price and profit as functions of the experience quality, and Theorem 2, which says that low-quality experiences benefit both the retailer and its customers.

Setting

A monopolist sells a main product at price ppp and offers a free experience of quality ux≥0u^x\ge 0ux≥0. A consumer chooses zx∈{0,1}z^x\in\{0,1\}zx∈{0,1} (obtain the experience or not) and zm∈{0,1}z^m\in\{0,1\}zm∈{0,1} (buy the product or not). The parameters are the product's nominal utility umu^mum, the travel cost t>0t>0t>0, the product's unit cost cmc^mcm, a memorable-event utility s>0s>0s>0, a synergy sensitivity λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, and a cost sensitivity η>0\eta>0η>0.

The baseline utilities are vx=ux−tv^x=u^x-tvx=ux−t and vm=um−t−pv^m=u^m-t-pvm=um−t−p. Obtaining both offerings together saves one travel cost and creates a brand synergy β(ux)=s(1−e−λux)\beta(u^x)=s(1-e^{-\lambda u^x})β(ux)=s(1−e−λux), so the interaction term is ψ=t+β(ux)\psi=t+\beta(u^x)ψ=t+β(ux). Each basket has utility μzxzm=vxzx+vmzm+ψzxzm\mu_{z^xz^m}=v^xz^x+v^mz^m+\psi z^xz^mμzxzm​=vxzx+vmzm+ψzxzm and probability

qzxzm=eμzxzm∑j,i∈{0,1}eμji.q_{z^xz^m}=\frac{e^{\mu_{z^xz^m}}}{\sum_{j,i\in\{0,1\}}e^{\mu_{ji}}}.qzxzm​=∑j,i∈{0,1}​eμji​eμzxzm​​.

The experience costs c(ux)=η(ux)2c(u^x)=\eta(u^x)^2c(ux)=η(ux)2 per user, and the retailer's profit is

π(p)=(q01+q11)(p−cm)−(q10+q11) c(ux).\pi(p)=(q_{01}+q_{11})(p-c^m)-(q_{10}+q_{11})\,c(u^x).π(p)=(q01​+q11​)(p−cm)−(q10​+q11​)c(ux).

Without an experience the model is the binary logit: πN(p)=q1(p−cm)\pi^N(p)=q_1(p-c^m)πN(p)=q1​(p−cm) with q1=evm/(evm+1)q_1=e^{v^m}/(e^{v^m}+1)q1​=evm/(evm+1).

An optimal price p∗p^*p∗ maximizes π\piπ over all real ppp, and p∗Np^{*N}p∗N maximizes πN\pi^NπN; π∗(ux)\pi^*(u^x)π∗(ux) and π∗N\pi^{*N}π∗N are the optimal profits. Consumer welfare is the logit log-sum CS=ln⁡∑j,ieμjiCS=\ln\sum_{j,i}e^{\mu_{ji}}CS=ln∑j,i​eμji​ with the experience and CSN=ln⁡(1+evm)CS^N=\ln(1+e^{v^m})CSN=ln(1+evm) without it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 13)

There is a threshold u^x>0\hat u^x>0u^x>0 such that for every 0≤ux≤u^x0\le u^x\le\hat u^x0≤ux≤u^x,

π(p∗)>πN(p∗N)andCS(p∗)>CSN(p∗N)\pi(p^*)>\pi^N(p^{*N})\quad\text{and}\quad CS(p^*)>CS^N(p^{*N})π(p∗)>πN(p∗N)andCS(p∗)>CSN(p∗N)

for all optimal prices p∗p^*p∗, p∗Np^{*N}p∗N, which exist. In addition, some quality ux≥0u^x\ge0ux≥0 leaves the retailer strictly worse off than offering no experience. The threshold is existential, as in the paper; no particular value is claimed.

Milestones: three clauses of Theorem 1 (p. 12)

  1. p∗>p∗Np^*>p^{*N}p∗>p∗N for every ux≥0u^x\ge 0ux≥0 (with existence of the optimal prices and attainment of π∗\pi^*π∗, π∗N\pi^{*N}π∗N).
  2. ∂π∗/∂ux∣ux=0>0\left.\partial\pi^*/\partial u^x\right|_{u^x=0}>0∂π∗/∂ux∣ux=0​>0.
  3. lim⁡ux→∞π∗=−∞\lim_{u^x\to\infty}\pi^*=-\inftylimux→∞​π∗=−∞ and π∗N>0\pi^{*N}>0π∗N>0.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 identifies a regime in which a free experience is a win-win: the retailer raises its price (Theorem 1) yet sells enough more, through the complementarity between experience and product, to raise profit, and consumers gain despite the higher price. Theorem 1 marks the limits of that regime: experiences of high quality attract so many free riders that profits fall without bound. Together they explain why experiential retail is typically offered at modest quality, and they are the benchmark for the paper's duopoly (§3.2) and conditionally-free (§4) analyses.

Formalizing it. The paper's lemmas and proofs are in an appendix that is not part of the held working paper; the published proof has never been machine-checked. A complete development would give the first verified analysis of optimal pricing under the MVL basket model, including existence of optimal prices, which the paper presupposes when it writes p∗p^*p∗. The milestones are the clauses of Theorem 1 that the goal rests on.

Difficulty

The optimal profit π∗\pi^*π∗ is a supremum over prices of a ratio of exponential sums, and the experience quality uxu^xux enters through three channels at once: the experience-only basket, the synergy β(ux)\beta(u^x)β(ux), and the cost η(ux)2\eta(u^x)^2η(ux)2, which is paid also for free riders. The obvious route, solving the first-order condition in closed form, fails: unlike the binary logit, where the optimal markup solves a Lambert-type equation, the MVL first-order condition mixes the free-rider basket into the denominator, and the optimal price need not be monotone in uxu^xux (Figure 1(a)). Comparing welfare requires the optimal prices themselves, not only the optimal profits, and the comparison is between two different optimization problems.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. Parameters form a structure with fields um,t,cm,s,λ,ηu^m,t,c^m,s,\lambda,\etaum,t,cm,s,λ,η; the standing assumptions t>0t>0t>0, η>0\eta>0η>0, s>0s>0s>0, λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 are one predicate carried by every statement. umu^mum and cmc^mcm are unconstrained, and prices range over all of R\mathbb RR. The model uses only β(ux)=s(1−e−λux)\beta(u^x)=s(1-e^{-\lambda u^x})β(ux)=s(1−e−λux) and c(ux)=η(ux)2c(u^x)=\eta(u^x)^2c(ux)=η(ux)2, not the constant, piecewise-linear or linear variants the paper mentions.

Conventions committed to:

  • s>0s>0s>0 and λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 are read from "β(u^x) is positively valued and concave increasing" (p. 10).
  • Consumer welfare is the log-sum, never defined in the paper; it reproduces Figure 1(d) (CS∗N=ln⁡2CS^{*N}=\ln2CS∗N=ln2 at the Figure 1 parameters). The identification with expected maximum utility under Gumbel shocks, up to an additive constant, is cited, not formalized.
  • Optimal prices are global maximizers; their existence is a conclusion of each statement, never a hypothesis, and uniqueness is never assumed, so every comparison holds for all optimal prices.
  • "Improves" is strict. The derivative at ux=0u^x=0ux=0 is the right derivative on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞).
  • The second sentence of Theorem 2 is formalized as its retailer half.

A statement at a fixed price, at ux=0u^x=0ux=0 alone, or under an assumed (possibly non-existent) optimum would be trivial or vacuous and is ruled out: the goal quantifies over all optimal prices, asserts their existence, and covers a whole interval [0,u^x][0,\hat u^x][0,u^x].

Not formalized: the remaining clauses of Theorem 1 ("if p∗p^*p∗ is decreasing in uxu^xux, then π∗\pi^*π∗ is also decreasing in uxu^xux", which needs p∗p^*p∗ as a function, and the comparative statics in η\etaη and λ\lambdaλ), and Theorems 3–8 (duopoly and conditionally-free offerings).

Needed infrastructure: continuity and coercivity arguments for existence of a maximizer over R\mathbb RR, a parametric envelope argument for π∗\pi^*π∗, and logit inequalities. Proofs of the milestones, of the existence of optimal prices, and reusable lemmas on logit pricing are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Mutlu, H. El-Amine, O. Sahin, Offering Memories to Sell Goods? Pricing and Welfare Implications of Experiential Retail, SSRN working paper 4617261, 2023. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4617261 ; published in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0339
  • G. J. Russell, A. Petersen, Analysis of cross category dependence in market basket selection, Journal of Retailing 76(3), 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-4359(00)00030-0
  • J. Besag, Spatial interaction and the statistical analysis of lattice systems, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 36(2), 1974. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1974.tb00999.x
  • D. R. Cox, The analysis of multivariate binary data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society C 21(2), 1972. https://doi.org/10.2307/2346482
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Algorithmic Game TheoryEconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Selling Assets: Are Sellers Better Off with Strong Buyers?: Under Free Entry, a More Dominant Strong Buyer Lowers the Seller's RevenueResearch Paper

Why buyer strength can reduce a sale price

A seller who can attract a buyer with a higher valuation might expect a higher auction price. That intuition holds when the number of competing buyers is fixed. If other buyers must pay to learn their valuations and decide whether to enter, a stronger buyer can instead cause some of them to stay out. Marquez and Singh study this response in a second-price auction and conclude that the seller's expected revenue falls under free entry when the strong buyer becomes more dominant (working paper, §§4–5). The result separates two effects that are often combined in informal auction advice: the price effect of a better bidder and the competition effect of discouraging entry.

This mission targets Proposition 1 of the October 2021 SSRN working paper. The paper was subsequently published in Management Science in 2023, but the theorem numbers and pages here refer only to the pinned working paper. The fixed-number comparison in Lemma 1 and the free-entry response in Lemma 2 supply the immediate context. No separate historical timeline is needed: the mission addresses this paper's particular auction model, rather than a long-running conjecture.

Auction and entry setting

There is one strong buyer and a pool of symmetric regular buyers. A buyer pays an entry cost c>0c>0c>0 to learn the value of the asset, enters, and bids that value in a simultaneous second-price auction. The highest bidder wins and pays the second-highest bid. Every buyer is risk neutral and the seller values the asset at zero. The working paper ignores integer constraints in its free-entry calculations, so the number NNN of regular buyers is treated as a real parameter after the auction formulas have been derived (§2, p. 9; §5, p. 13).

Each regular value has distribution function FFF; the strong value has distribution function GGG. They are cumulative distribution functions of probability laws concentrated on [0,1][0,1][0,1]. In the paper's first-order stochastic dominance convention, GGG dominates FFF when G(z)≤F(z)G(z)\le F(z)G(z)≤F(z) for 0<z<10<z<10<z<1, with strict inequality on a positive-measure set. A further improvement replaces GGG by G′G'G′ with G′(z)≤G(z)G'(z)\le G(z)G′(z)≤G(z) and the same strictness condition. The CDF direction may look reversed: a more valuable distribution puts less probability below any fixed threshold.

For a real buyer count N≥1N\ge1N≥1, the gross expected profit of one regular buyer and the seller's revenue are represented by the paper's equations (1) and (3):

π(N∣G)=∫01(1−F(z))G(z)F(z)N−1 dz,R(N∣G)=1−∫01F(z)N dz−Nπ(N∣G).\pi(N\mid G)=\int_0^1 (1-F(z))G(z)F(z)^{N-1}\,dz, \qquad R(N\mid G)=1-\int_0^1F(z)^N\,dz-N\pi(N\mid G).π(N∣G)=∫01​(1−F(z))G(z)F(z)N−1dz,R(N∣G)=1−∫01​F(z)Ndz−Nπ(N∣G).

The second formula comes from the auction's surplus identity. It is used as the definition of RRR in this mission, with the same π\piπ as the first formula. A free-entry root NGN_GNG​ satisfies π(NG∣G)=c\pi(N_G\mid G)=cπ(NG​∣G)=c and NG≥1N_G\ge1NG​≥1. The root is a witness to the zero-profit equation, not an infimum or an independently chosen optimum. The statements quantify over every root satisfying these conditions.

Formalization targets

The first target is the profit and entry chain in Lemmas 1 and 2. Increasing NNN lowers each regular buyer's profit; a more dominant strong buyer also lowers it. At a common positive entry cost, the improved strong buyer therefore has a smaller free-entry root:

π(N∣G′)<π(N∣G),NG′<NG.\pi(N\mid G')<\pi(N\mid G),\qquad N_{G'}<N_G.π(N∣G′)<π(N∣G),NG′​<NG​.

The main target is the corrected strict form of Proposition 1 (p. 14). If the improvement from GGG to G′G'G′ has a strict effect at values where F(z)<1F(z)<1F(z)<1, then

R(NG′∣G′)<R(NG∣G).R(N_{G'}\mid G')<R(N_G\mid G).R(NG′​∣G′)<R(NG​∣G).

This positive-measure condition is stated separately in Lean. It is needed because strict CDF dominance can occur entirely where every regular value is already at or below zzz, so F(z)=1F(z)=1F(z)=1. In that case the change in GGG does not affect regular-buyer profit, the roots can agree, and the printed strict revenue conclusion fails. For example, a regular-value law supported on [0,1/2][0,1/2][0,1/2] and a shift of the strong-buyer law only above 1/21/21/2 have this problem. The mission keeps the paper's FOSD premise and discloses the additional guard.

What the result supplies

The theorem identifies a precise limit on the seller's benefit from attracting a strong buyer. At a fixed number of bidders, the paper's Lemma 1 says a more dominant strong buyer raises revenue. When regular bidders pay an entry cost and the count adjusts, Proposition 1 gives the opposite strict comparison under the stated effective-shift condition. The result therefore distinguishes advice for a thin market, where the bidder pool is fixed, from advice for a deep market with endogenous participation (§§4–5).

The economic result is already proved in the paper, subject to the corrections disclosed here. The open work for this mission is a machine-checked proof of the stated inequalities from the CDF formulas and free-entry equations. A verified development would also make the analytic comparison reusable for other entry models in which one entrant changes the incentives of the rest. The mission does not claim that a published Lean proof of this result already exists; the local prior-art search found only auction and stochastic-order formalizations with different models or conclusions.

Analytical difficulty

The immediate fixed-NNN comparison cannot settle the free-entry claim, because G′G'G′ changes the equilibrium buyer count at the same time that it changes a bidder's value. The revenue identity reduces the equilibrium comparison to how the expression 1−∫01F(z)N dz−Nc1-\int_0^1F(z)^N\,dz-Nc1−∫01​F(z)Ndz−Nc varies between the two roots. The paper calculates a positive derivative at NGN_GNG​, but its prose then says the expression is increasing in NNN without a range. Global monotonicity is false: the −Nc-Nc−Nc term eventually dominates for a uniform FFF and positive ccc. The milestone records the needed statement on [1,NG][1,N_G][1,NG​] and labels the correction.

There is also a strictness issue in Lemma 1. A positive-measure CDF shift alone need not change the integral defining regular profit: its factor 1−F(z)1-F(z)1−F(z) can vanish throughout the shift. The definitions and hypotheses expose exactly where the strict integrand must be positive. Differentiating the real power of a CDF also requires treating zero CDF values and the endpoint of the integration interval consistently.

Formalization scope

Lean uses ProbabilityTheory.cdf of probability measures on R\mathbb RR concentrated on [0,1]‘.Thedominancerelationcomparestheirreal−valuedCDFson[0,1]`. The dominance relation compares their real-valued CDFs on [0,1]‘.Thedominancerelationcomparestheirreal−valuedCDFson(0,1)andmeasuresstrictnesswithLebesguevolume.Bothand measures strictness with Lebesgue volume. BothandmeasuresstrictnesswithLebesguevolume.BothN_GandandandN_{G'}arerealandatleastone,asassumedonp.13.Theintervalintegralrunsfromzerotoone.Atare real and at least one, as assumed on p. 13. The interval integral runs from zero to one. Atarerealandatleastone,asassumedonp.13.Theintervalintegralrunsfromzerotoone.AtF(z)=0,theformulasuse, the formulas use ,theformulasuse0^0=1forforforN=1andthelimitingzeroconventionforand the limiting zero convention forandthelimitingzeroconventionforF(z)^N\log F(z);thestatementsneveruse; the statements never use ;thestatementsneveruseN<1$, where the profit integral may fail to be integrable.

The definitions keep revenue tied to the paper's profit formula. Defining revenue directly as 1−∫FN−Nc1-\int F^N-Nc1−∫FN−Nc at a free-entry root would erase the comparison the theorem is meant to establish. The theorem also requires actual CDFs and positive-measure strictness, rather than arbitrary functions satisfying an uncheckable existence assumption. A complete proof needs measure-theoretic CDF bounds, integral monotonicity and strictness, real-power differentiation, and monotonicity on a closed interval. These analytic results can be reused beyond this auction. Contributions on the five listed milestones and the goal are within scope; the separate fixed-entry revenue clauses, numerical illustrations, and later subsidy, reserve, and bundling results are not included.

Selected references

  • R. Marquez and R. Singh, Selling assets: Are sellers better off with strong buyers?, SSRN working paper 3949699, October 2021, §§2–5 and Appendix, pp. 9–14, 37–39. Working paper.
  • R. Marquez and R. Singh, Selling assets: Are sellers better off with strong buyers?, Management Science, 2023. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4938. The mission's statements and page citations use the working paper above.
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Managerial Regret and Inventory Pricing: The Regretful Seller's Marginal Value of Inventory and Price Increase with Time-to-Go and Decrease with Remaining InventoryResearch Paper

Motivation

Revenue management studies how a seller with a fixed stock and a finite selling season should price over time. The classical models assume an expected-revenue maximizer: Gallego and van Ryzin (1994) in continuous time and Bitran and Mondschein (1997) in discrete time showed that the optimal price and the marginal value of inventory rise with the time left in the season and fall with the stock on hand. These monotonicity results are what make simple markdown policies defensible in practice.

Managers are not always expected-revenue maximizers. Regret theory, going back to Bell (1982), models a decision maker who compares the outcome with what the best choice would have yielded once the uncertainty is resolved. A pricing manager who sees a customer walk away regrets having priced too high; one who sees a sale regrets having left money on the table. Li and Liu (Management Science, forthcoming; accepted manuscript SSRN 3726966) build this anticipated regret into the single-period pricing problem and into the finite-horizon inventory pricing dynamic program, and ask whether the classical structure survives. This mission formalizes their answer for the structure of the dynamic policy.

Setting

A customer's willingness-to-pay vvv has density fff and distribution function FFF, supported on [a,b][a,b][a,b] with 0≤a<b<∞0\le a<b<\infty0≤a<b<∞. Write Fˉ=1−F\bar F=1-FFˉ=1−F and the failure rate h(x)=f(x)/Fˉ(x)h(x)=f(x)/\bar F(x)h(x)=f(x)/Fˉ(x); the law has an increasing failure rate (IFR) if hhh is non-decreasing. Throughout, "increasing" means non-decreasing.

Single period. A seller with one unit and salvage value (opportunity cost) z∈[0,b]z\in[0,b]z∈[0,b] posts price ppp. Her revenue beyond the salvage value is

π(p,z)=(p−z)Fˉ(p),\pi(p,z)=(p-z)\bar F(p),π(p,z)=(p−z)Fˉ(p),

maximized by the unbiased price p∗p^*p∗, with optimal value π∗(z)=max⁡pπ(p,z)\pi^*(z)=\max_p\pi(p,z)π∗(z)=maxp​π(p,z). If the customer does not buy, she regrets the best lower price she could have charged; if he buys, she regrets the best higher price. The overpricing regret and underpricing regret are

ro(p,z)=max⁡y<p[π(y,z)−(y−z)Fˉ(p)],ru(p,z)=max⁡y≥pπ(y,z)−π(p,z),r_o(p,z)=\max_{y<p}\big[\pi(y,z)-(y-z)\bar F(p)\big],\qquad r_u(p,z)=\max_{y\ge p}\pi(y,z)-\pi(p,z),ro​(p,z)=y<pmax​[π(y,z)−(y−z)Fˉ(p)],ru​(p,z)=y≥pmax​π(y,z)−π(p,z),

and with overpricing parameter α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] and underpricing parameter β∈[0,1]\beta\in[0,1]β∈[0,1] the regretful seller maximizes

π^(p,z)=π(p,z)−α ro(p,z)−β ru(p,z).\hat\pi(p,z)=\pi(p,z)-\alpha\,r_o(p,z)-\beta\,r_u(p,z).π^(p,z)=π(p,z)−αro​(p,z)−βru​(p,z).

Its maximizer is the regretful price p^\hat pp^​.

Dynamic problem. The season has TTT periods, indexed by the time-to-go ttt; in each period one customer arrives with probability λ≤1/2\lambda\le 1/2λ≤1/2. With xxx units left, the regretful seller's value-to-go satisfies

Ut(x)=Ut−1(x)+λmax⁡pπ^(p,ΔUt−1(x)),Ut(0)=U0(x)=0,U_t(x)=U_{t-1}(x)+\lambda\max_p\hat\pi\big(p,\Delta U_{t-1}(x)\big),\qquad U_t(0)=U_0(x)=0,Ut​(x)=Ut−1​(x)+λpmax​π^(p,ΔUt−1​(x)),Ut​(0)=U0​(x)=0,

where ΔUt(x)=Ut(x)−Ut(x−1)\Delta U_t(x)=U_t(x)-U_t(x-1)ΔUt​(x)=Ut​(x)−Ut​(x−1) is the marginal value of the xxx-th unit. The price p^t(x)\hat p_t(x)p^​t​(x) maximizes π^(⋅,ΔUt−1(x))\hat\pi(\cdot,\Delta U_{t-1}(x))π^(⋅,ΔUt−1​(x)): the dynamic seller acts as a single-period seller whose opportunity cost is the marginal value of inventory.

The paper imposes one regularity condition on the single-period problem: the regretful seller's marginal value from the opportunity cost, m^(z,α,β)=∂π^(p^,z)/∂z\hat m(z,\alpha,\beta)=\partial\hat\pi(\hat p,z)/\partial zm^(z,α,β)=∂π^(p^​,z)/∂z, is non-positive.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4

Under IFR, α,β∈[0,1]\alpha,\beta\in[0,1]α,β∈[0,1], λ≤1/2\lambda\le1/2λ≤1/2 and m^≤0\hat m\le 0m^≤0, for every ttt and x≥1x\ge1x≥1,

ΔUt(x)≤ΔUt+1(x),ΔUt(x+1)≤ΔUt(x),\Delta U_t(x)\le\Delta U_{t+1}(x),\qquad \Delta U_t(x+1)\le\Delta U_t(x),ΔUt​(x)≤ΔUt+1​(x),ΔUt​(x+1)≤ΔUt​(x),

the price problem of (10) has a unique solution, and

p^t(x)≤p^t+1(x),p^t(x+1)≤p^t(x).\hat p_t(x)\le\hat p_{t+1}(x),\qquad \hat p_t(x+1)\le\hat p_t(x).p^​t​(x)≤p^​t+1​(x),p^​t​(x+1)≤p^​t​(x).

Milestones

The single-period layer: under IFR the unbiased price is unique and revenue is unimodal (§2); Lemma 1 (monotonicity of ror_oro​ and rur_uru​ in ppp, and ru=0r_u=0ru​=0 above p∗p^*p∗); Proposition 1(a) (existence, uniqueness, corner case of p^\hat pp^​); Proposition 2 (p^≤p∗\hat p\le p^*p^​≤p∗). The ingredients of the proof of Proposition 4: the envelope identity (14) dπ∗/dz=−Fˉ(p∗)d\pi^*/dz=-\bar F(p^*)dπ∗/dz=−Fˉ(p∗), the rewriting (15) of π^\hat\piπ^, the monotonicity of ror_oro​ in zzz (step (g)), Proposition 4(a), and the monotonicity of the single-period regretful price p^(z)\hat p(z)p^​(z) in zzz.

Significance

Proposition 4 shows that anticipated regret distorts the level of prices but not the shape of the optimal policy: a regretful seller still marks down as the season ends and as stock accumulates, exactly as the unbiased seller of Bitran and Mondschein does. This is what the paper's later results build on, namely the comparison p^t(x)≤pt(x)\hat p_t(x)\le p_t(x)p^​t​(x)≤pt​(x) of the regretful and unbiased dynamic prices (Proposition 5) and the observation that a regretful seller can earn less with more inventory (Proposition 6). It also tells a practitioner that markdown heuristics remain structurally appropriate under regret.

The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of it is machine-checked. The mission produces a checked proof of the whole chain from the single-period model to the dynamic structure. The paper's identity (15) holds only for prices below p∗p^*p∗, and its induction leaves the boundary x=1x=1x=1 implicit, so the formal proof also settles these points.

Difficulty

For the unbiased seller the argument is short: max⁡pπ(p,z)\max_p\pi(p,z)maxp​π(p,z) is convex and decreasing in zzz, and induction on ttt closes. With regret, π^(p,z)\hat\pi(p,z)π^(p,z) contains two inner maximizations whose arguments move with ppp and zzz, so neither convexity of z↦max⁡pπ^(p,z)z\mapsto\max_p\hat\pi(p,z)z↦maxp​π^(p,z) nor a clean envelope formula is available, and the unbiased induction does not go through as written. The regret parameters also interact with the arrival probability: the paper's argument needs λ(1+β)≤1\lambda(1+\beta)\le1λ(1+β)≤1, which is where λ≤1/2\lambda\le1/2λ≤1/2 enters. For part (b), π^(p,z)\hat\pi(p,z)π^(p,z) has increasing differences in (p,z)(p,z)(p,z) only on the range p≤p∗(z)p\le p^*(z)p≤p∗(z), not for all prices, so Topkis's monotone-argmax theorem does not apply directly. At the boundary x=1x=1x=1 the induction step refers to ΔUt(0)\Delta U_t(0)ΔUt​(0), which (10) does not define.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The willingness-to-pay law is a density fff on R\mathbb RR with f≥0f\ge0f≥0, f=0f=0f=0 off [a,b][a,b][a,b], ∫f=1\int f=1∫f=1; continuity of fff on [a,b][a,b][a,b] is added (the paper evaluates f(a)f(a)f(a) and h(a)h(a)h(a) and uses F′=fF'=fF′=f). IFR is required on x<bx<bx<b, since hhh is undefined where Fˉ=0\bar F=0Fˉ=0. Every max of the paper is a real supremum over the indicated set; all families involved are bounded above. Optimal prices enter as argmax predicates, never as chosen functions, and the price statements quantify over every maximizer. The dynamic program is a recursion on N\mathbb NN in (t,x)(t,x)(t,x); the cap x≤cx\le cx≤c on inventory is dropped, which only extends the domain; ΔUt(x)\Delta U_t(x)ΔUt​(x) is used for x≥1x\ge1x≥1 only.

The regularity condition m^≤0\hat m\le0m^≤0 is rendered as: z↦max⁡pπ^(p,z)z\mapsto\max_p\hat\pi(p,z)z↦maxp​π^(p,z) is non-increasing on [0,b][0,b][0,b]. It is a hypothesis about the single-period problem only; a version stated about UUU or ΔU\Delta UΔU would assume part (a). The second regularity condition of the paper, ∂m^/∂α≥0\partial\hat m/\partial\alpha\ge0∂m^/∂α≥0, is not used by Proposition 4 and is not assumed. Uniqueness statements are posed for z<bz<bz<b, since at z=bz=bz=b every price above bbb is optimal. The goal asserts existence and uniqueness of the price of (10) explicitly, so that its price-monotonicity clauses cannot hold vacuously. The identity (15) is stated on p≤p∗p\le p^*p≤p∗ together with the equality of maxima, its form in the proof.

Not formalized: the interior first-order characterization (5) of Proposition 1(a), Proposition 1(b), Proposition 3, Propositions 5–7, Lemmas 2–5, and the numerical study. The single-period layer (the regret objective, its monotonicity in price and opportunity cost) is reusable for the paper's other results; contributions proving any milestone independently are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Li and Y. Liu, Managerial regret and inventory pricing, Management Science, forthcoming. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4073; accepted manuscript: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3726966
  • G. R. Bitran and S. V. Mondschein, Periodic pricing of seasonal products in retailing, Management Science 43(1), 64–79, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.1.64
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons, Management Science 40(8), 999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
  • D. E. Bell, Regret in decision making under uncertainty, Operations Research 30(5), 961–981, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.30.5.961
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Joint Mixability and Notions of Negative Dependence: The Minimizers of the Worst-Case Quadratic Cost over Subsets of Components Are Exactly the NCD Joint Mixes with Correlation Matrix P*_nResearch Paper

Motivation

A joint mix is a random vector X=(X1,…,Xn)\mathbf X=(X_1,\dots,X_n)X=(X1​,…,Xn​) whose component sum ∑i=1nXi\sum_{i=1}^n X_i∑i=1n​Xi​ is almost surely constant. For fixed marginal distributions it minimizes the variance, the stop-loss premium and the Expected Shortfall of the aggregate, which comonotonicity maximizes, and for this reason it is regarded as the canonical form of extremal negative dependence (Puccetti & Wang, 2015). Joint mixability and its special case complete mixability (Wang & Wang, 2011; Wang & Wang, 2016) are the main tools for worst-case Value-at-Risk under dependence uncertainty and appear in bottleneck assignment and scheduling.

A joint mix need not be negatively dependent in any of the classical statistical senses: negative correlation, negative orthant dependence, or negative association (Joag-Dev & Proschan, 1983). Koike, Lin & Wang (arXiv:2204.11438v4) relate the two notions and ask whether the negatively dependent joint mixes are distinguished by an optimization property. They answer with a multi-marginal optimal transport problem (Pass, 2015) in which the decision maker does not know which subset of the nnn components will be aggregated, and hedges against the worst case in the sense of Gilboa & Schmeidler (1989). Uncertainty about the aggregated subset models absent risks in an insurance pool, missing particles, or agents who may not participate in a risk-sharing arrangement. This mission formalizes the quadratic-cost part of that answer (§4.2 of the paper).

Setting

Let n≥1n\ge 1n≥1, [n]={1,…,n}[n]=\{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n}, and let FFF be a distribution on R\mathbb RR with finite second moment. A random vector X\mathbf XX has marginals FFF if Xi∼FX_i\sim FXi​∼F for every i∈[n]i\in[n]i∈[n].

  • X\mathbf XX is negative correlation dependent (NCD) if Cov⁡(Xi,Xj)≤0\operatorname{Cov}(X_i,X_j)\le 0Cov(Xi​,Xj​)≤0 for all i≠ji\ne ji=j.
  • FFF is nnn-completely mixable if some joint mix has all marginals FFF.
  • X\mathbf XX is exchangeable if X=dXπ=(Xπ(1),…,Xπ(n))\mathbf X\overset d=\mathbf X_\pi=(X_{\pi(1)},\dots,X_{\pi(n)})X=dXπ​=(Xπ(1)​,…,Xπ(n)​) for every permutation π∈Sn\pi\in\mathfrak S_nπ∈Sn​.
  • Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ is the n×nn\times nn×n correlation matrix with diagonal 111 and off-diagonal entries −1/(n−1)-1/(n-1)−1/(n−1).

A probability on 2[n]2^{[n]}2[n] assigns weights μ(K)≥0\mu(K)\ge 0μ(K)≥0 to the subsets K⊆[n]K\subseteq[n]K⊆[n], summing to 111. For a cost f:R→Rf:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rf:R→R,

Cμf(X)=∑K⊆[n]E[f(∑i∈KXi)]μ(K),C^f_\mu(\mathbf X)=\sum_{K\subseteq[n]}\mathbb E\Big[f\Big(\sum_{i\in K}X_i\Big)\Big]\mu(K),Cμf​(X)=K⊆[n]∑​E[f(i∈K∑​Xi​)]μ(K),

with the empty sum equal to 000; Cμ2C^2_\muCμ2​ is the case f(x)=x2f(x)=x^2f(x)=x2. An uncertainty set M\mathcal MM is a set of probabilities on 2[n]2^{[n]}2[n]; it is symmetric if μ∈M\mu\in\mathcal Mμ∈M implies μπ∈M\mu_\pi\in\mathcal Mμπ​∈M for all π\piπ, where μπ(K)=μ({π(i):i∈K})\mu_\pi(K)=\mu(\{\pi(i):i\in K\})μπ​(K)=μ({π(i):i∈K}). The three problems, each subject to Xi∼FX_i\sim FXi​∼F for i∈[n]i\in[n]i∈[n], are

(11) min⁡ sup⁡μ∈MCμ2(X),(12) min⁡ max⁡K⊆[n]E[(∑i∈KXi)2],(13) min⁡ max⁡∣K∣=kE[(∑i∈KXi)2].\text{(11)}\ \min\ \sup_{\mu\in\mathcal M}C^2_\mu(\mathbf X),\qquad \text{(12)}\ \min\ \max_{K\subseteq[n]}\mathbb E\Big[\Big(\sum_{i\in K}X_i\Big)^2\Big],\qquad \text{(13)}\ \min\ \max_{|K|=k}\mathbb E\Big[\Big(\sum_{i\in K}X_i\Big)^2\Big].(11) min μ∈Msup​Cμ2​(X),(12) min K⊆[n]max​E[(i∈K∑​Xi​)2],(13) min ∣K∣=kmax​E[(i∈K∑​Xi​)2].

Problems (12) and (13) are (11) for M\mathcal MM the set of all probabilities on 2[n]2^{[n]}2[n] and the set of those supported on kkk-subsets.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5 (p. 12)

Let n≥3n\ge 3n≥3 and FFF be nnn-completely mixable with mean 000 and finite positive variance. Then

X minimizes (12)  ⟺  X is an NCD joint mix with marginals F and correlation matrix Pn∗,\mathbf X\ \text{minimizes (12)}\iff \mathbf X\ \text{is an NCD joint mix with marginals } F \text{ and correlation matrix } P^*_n,X minimizes (12)⟺X is an NCD joint mix with marginals F and correlation matrix Pn∗​,

and the same equivalence holds for (13) with every k∈[n]∖{1,n−1,n}k\in[n]\setminus\{1,n-1,n\}k∈[n]∖{1,n−1,n}. The goal fixes no constants beyond those of the paper.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 5 (p. 11): for symmetric M\mathcal MM and a joint mix X\mathbf XX with marginals FFF, one exchangeable NCD joint mix XE\mathbf X^{\mathrm E}XE with correlation matrix Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ satisfies sup⁡MCμf(XE)≤sup⁡MCμf(X)\sup_{\mathcal M}C^f_\mu(\mathbf X^{\mathrm E})\le\sup_{\mathcal M}C^f_\mu(\mathbf X)supM​Cμf​(XE)≤supM​Cμf​(X) for all admissible fff.
  2. Proof of Theorem 4 (p. 27): randomly permuting the components does not increase sup⁡MCμ2\sup_{\mathcal M}C^2_\musupM​Cμ2​.
  3. Proof of Theorem 4 (p. 27): an equicorrelation ρ\rhoρ with identical marginals lies in [−1/(n−1),1][-1/(n-1),1][−1/(n−1),1], and ρ=−1/(n−1)\rho=-1/(n-1)ρ=−1/(n−1) is attained when FFF is nnn-completely mixable.
  4. Theorem 4 (p. 12): for symmetric M\mathcal MM, every NCD joint mix with marginals FFF and correlation matrix Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ minimizes (11).
  5. (18) (p. 28): under Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ and mean 000, the value of (12) is Var⁡(F) k∗(n−k∗)/(n−1)\operatorname{Var}(F)\,k^*(n-k^*)/(n-1)Var(F)k∗(n−k∗)/(n−1), k∗=⌊n/2⌋k^*=\lfloor n/2\rfloork∗=⌊n/2⌋.
  6. (20) (p. 28): the average of Var⁡(∑i∈KXi)\operatorname{Var}(\sum_{i\in K}X_i)Var(∑i∈K​Xi​) over ∣K∣=k|K|=k∣K∣=k is at least Var⁡(F) k(n−k)/(n−1)\operatorname{Var}(F)\,k(n-k)/(n-1)Var(F)k(n−k)/(n−1).
  7. After (21) (p. 28): a minimizer of (13) has Var⁡(∑i∈KXi)=Var⁡(F) k(n−k)/(n−1)\operatorname{Var}(\sum_{i\in K}X_i)=\operatorname{Var}(F)\,k(n-k)/(n-1)Var(∑i∈K​Xi​)=Var(F)k(n−k)/(n−1) for every ∣K∣=k|K|=k∣K∣=k.

Significance

Theorem 4 shows that NCD joint mixes with correlation matrix Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ are optimal for the quadratic cost under every symmetric uncertainty set about the aggregated subset. Theorem 5 shows that for the two natural uncertainty sets, "no information on KKK" and "only ∣K∣|K|∣K∣ known", they are the only optimizers: every minimizer is a joint mix and every minimizer has the same correlation matrix. Negative dependence is therefore necessary, and not only sufficient, for robustness of the aggregate against uncertainty about which components are present. Remark 1 of the paper shows the excluded values k∈{1,n−1,n}k\in\{1,n-1,n\}k∈{1,n−1,n} are exactly where uniqueness fails, so the statement is sharp in kkk.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them, and none of the underlying notions (joint mix, complete mixability, NCD, worst-case costs over subsets), is formalized elsewhere. The mission produces machine-checked statements and proofs. One step of the published proof is incomplete: the derivation of Σ=Pn∗\Sigma=P^*_nΣ=Pn∗​ for a minimizer of (13) is written out only for k=2k=2k=2 (p. 29), so for 3≤k≤n−23\le k\le n-23≤k≤n−2, and for (12) when n≥6n\ge 6n≥6, a formal proof must supply the missing argument.

Difficulty

The competitor class is every law with marginals FFF, an infinite-dimensional and non-parametric set, so the "if" direction cannot be settled by comparing finitely many candidates. In the "only if" direction the obvious reduction to exchangeable laws is unavailable: a minimizer need not be exchangeable, and its pairwise covariances must be recovered from the values of the subset objectives alone. With only kkk-subset information, the variance of each kkk-subset sum is pinned down, but turning these (nk)\binom nk(kn​) equalities into equality of all (n2)\binom n2(2n​) covariances is a combinatorial step that is immediate only for k=2k=2k=2. For (12) and n≥6n\ge 6n≥6 it is the case k=⌊n/2⌋≥3k=\lfloor n/2\rfloor\ge 3k=⌊n/2⌋≥3 that is needed.

Formalization scope

  • Laws instead of random vectors. Competitors are probability measures PPP on Rn\mathbb R^nRn (Fin n → ℝ, components 0-based) with every coordinate marginal equal to FFF; every objective depends on X\mathbf XX only through its law. The goal is stated for a measurable random vector on an arbitrary probability space through its law. The competitor class of (11)–(13) is all such laws, not Gaussian, exchangeable, or joint-mix laws.
  • Finite second moment. §4's standing assumption (F∈L2F\in L^2F∈L2) is a hypothesis of every theorem. Expectations are Bochner integrals, which return 000 on non-integrable integrands; the L2L^2L2 hypothesis rules this out for the quadratic costs.
  • Proposition 5. "For all measurable fff" is read as: for all measurable fff such that f(∑i∈KXi)f(\sum_{i\in K}X_i)f(∑i∈K​Xi​) is integrable for every KKK; the conclusion includes that the same expectations exist for XE\mathbf X^{\mathrm E}XE. The witness XE\mathbf X^{\mathrm E}XE is existential and does not depend on fff.
  • Correlation matrix Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ is expressed through covariances: Cov⁡(Xi,Xj)=−Var⁡(F)/(n−1)\operatorname{Cov}(X_i,X_j)=-\operatorname{Var}(F)/(n-1)Cov(Xi​,Xj​)=−Var(F)/(n−1) for i≠ji\ne ji=j. Writing −1/(n−1)-1/(n-1)−1/(n−1) without the variance factor would impose Var⁡(F)=1\operatorname{Var}(F)=1Var(F)=1, which the paper assumes only inside proofs.
  • Uncertainty sets are sets of functions Finset (Fin n) → ℝ contained in the probabilities on 2[n]2^{[n]}2[n]; the supremum over M\mathcal MM is the real sSup, which is finite for such sets. Problem (13) is only used with k≤nk\le nk≤n.
  • Normalizations. Milestones 3, 5, 6 and 7 keep a general Var⁡(F)\operatorname{Var}(F)Var(F) where the paper normalizes it to 111.
  • Trivializations ruled out. Restricting the competitor class to Gaussian or exchangeable laws, dropping L2L^2L2 integrability, or dropping the variance factor in Pn∗P^*_nPn∗​ would each turn the goal into a different (weaker or false) statement; none is used.

Infrastructure that a complete development needs and that is reusable: the permutation average of a law on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and its marginals, variances of subset sums in terms of a covariance matrix, and the positive semidefiniteness bound for equicorrelation matrices. Contributions are welcome on each milestone and on the missing combinatorial step for k≥3k\ge 3k≥3.

Selected references

  • T. Koike, L. Lin, R. Wang, Joint mixability and notions of negative dependence, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024; arXiv:2204.11438v4. https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.11438
  • B. Wang, R. Wang, The complete mixability and convex minimization problems with monotone marginal densities, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 102(10), 2011. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2011.05.002
  • B. Wang, R. Wang, Joint mixability, Mathematics of Operations Research 41(3), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2015.0755
  • G. Puccetti, R. Wang, Extremal dependence concepts, Statistical Science 30(4), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-STS525
  • K. Joag-Dev, F. Proschan, Negative association of random variables with applications, Annals of Statistics 11, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176346079
  • I. Gilboa, D. Schmeidler, Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior, Journal of Mathematical Economics 18, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(89)90018-9
  • B. Pass, Multi-marginal optimal transport: theory and applications, ESAIM: M2AN 49(6), 2015. https://doi.org/10.1051/m2an/2015020
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Feasible Bases for a Polytope Related to the Hamilton Cycle Problem: Every Ultimate Feasible Basis Is a Good Augmented Spanning Tree Whose Thick Arcs Form the Unique Perfect MatchingResearch Paper

Why feasible bases matter

A Hamilton cycle visits every vertex of a directed graph once and returns to its start. Finding one is a standard combinatorial optimization problem, and linear programming provides a way to study it through extreme points. Kalinowski and Mohammadian examine a polytope introduced for this purpose and ask what its feasible bases look like when a discount parameter approaches one. The structure of those bases matters for interpreting computations on the polytope: it tells which variables can be basic, how their flows behave, and how the corresponding graph is connected. The paper proves structural results; this mission asks for their Lean formalization.

The polytope and its bases

Let G be a loopless directed graph on V=[n]={1,…,n}V=[n]=\{1,\ldots,n\}V=[n]={1,…,n}, with distinguished node 111, and let 0<β<10<\beta<10<β<1. A flow variable xijx_{ij}xij​ is assigned to each arc (i,j)(i,j)(i,j) of GGG. Write Φ(i)=∑j:(j,i)∈Exji\Phi(i)=\sum_{j:(j,i)\in E}x_{ji}Φ(i)=∑j:(j,i)∈E​xji​ for inflow and Ψ(i)=∑j:(i,j)∈Exij\Psi(i)=\sum_{j:(i,j)\in E}x_{ij}Ψ(i)=∑j:(i,j)∈E​xij​ for outflow. There is a slack variable yiy_iyi​ for each i≠1i\ne1i=1. The polytope WHβ(G)\mathcal{WH}_{\beta}(G)WHβ​(G) consists of the pairs (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) satisfying the following equations and bounds, taken from (2.10)–(2.15), p. 4:

Ψ(1)−βΦ(1)=1−βn,Ψ(1)=1,Ψ(i)−βΦ(i)=0,Ψ(i)−yi=βn−1(i≠1),xij≥0,0≤yi≤β−βn−1.\begin{aligned} \Psi(1)-\beta\Phi(1)&=1-\beta^n,&\Psi(1)&=1,\\ \Psi(i)-\beta\Phi(i)&=0,&\Psi(i)-y_i&=\beta^{n-1}\quad(i\ne1),\\ x_{ij}&\ge0,&0\le y_i&\le\beta-\beta^{n-1}. \end{aligned}Ψ(1)−βΦ(1)Ψ(i)−βΦ(i)xij​​=1−βn,=0,≥0,​Ψ(1)Ψ(i)−yi​0≤yi​​=1,=βn−1(i=1),≤β−βn−1.​

A basis is a triple (B,L,U)(B,L,U)(B,L,U). Its basic variables are B=A∪YB=A\cup YB=A∪Y, where A⊆EA\subseteq EA⊆E consists of basic flow variables and Y⊆V∖{1}Y\subseteq V\setminus\{1\}Y⊆V∖{1} of basic slacks. The remaining slack indices are partitioned into LLL and UUU, fixed at zero and β−βn−1\beta-\beta^{n-1}β−βn−1 respectively. There are exactly 2n2n2n basic columns, and their matrix MB(β)M_B(\beta)MB​(β) is invertible. A basis is feasible if its basic solution also satisfies all the displayed bounds. The set of such bases is Γ(G,β)\Gamma(G,\beta)Γ(G,β).

The paper shows that Γ(G,β)\Gamma(G,\beta)Γ(G,β) stabilizes for β\betaβ sufficiently close to one. An ultimate basis is a member of this stable set, denoted Γ(G)\Gamma(G)Γ(G). In Lean, membership means feasibility for every β\betaβ in some left neighborhood of one; Proposition 1 connects this definition to the paper's threshold α∗\alpha^*α∗.

To inspect a basis as a graph, split every node iii into viv_ivi​ and wiw_iwi​. Replace each (i,j)∈E(i,j)\in E(i,j)∈E by (wi,vj)(w_i,v_j)(wi​,vj​) and add (vi,wi)(v_i,w_i)(vi​,wi​) for i≠1i\ne1i=1. This gives G′G'G′, and the basic variables give an arc set B′B'B′. The polytope is a generalized network flow (GNF) polytope on G′G'G′: an arc (wi,vj)(w_i,v_j)(wi​,vj​) has multiplier β\betaβ and no upper capacity, while (vi,wi)(v_i,w_i)(vi​,wi​) has multiplier one and capacity β−βn−1\beta-\beta^{n-1}β−βn−1. Supplies are 111 at w1w_1w1​, βn−1\beta^{n-1}βn−1 at the other wiw_iwi​, −βn-\beta^n−βn at v1v_1v1​, and −βn−1-\beta^{n-1}−βn−1 at the other viv_ivi​. The printed supply vector on pp. 6–7 gives −βn−1-\beta^{n-1}−βn−1 at v1v_1v1​ too, but (2.10) and (2.12) imply −βn-\beta^n−βn; the Lean model follows those defining equations.

An augmented tree is a connected graph with one cycle. After orienting a traversal of that cycle, its cycle multiplier is the product of the multipliers on forward arcs divided by the product on backward arcs. The tree is good when this ratio differs from one. A thick arc of an ultimate basis has xij=1−O(1−β)x_{ij}=1-O(1-\beta)xij​=1−O(1−β) as β→1\beta\to1β→1 from below; a thin arc has xij=O(1−β)x_{ij}=O(1-\beta)xij​=O(1−β) (Definitions 4–7, pp. 7–12).

Formalization targets

The central target is Theorem 3.4(i)–(ii), p. 14. For every ultimate basis, B′B'B′ is one good augmented tree spanning all 2n2n2n split vertices. If A1′A'_1A1′​ is the set of split thick arcs, then A1′A'_1A1′​ is a perfect matching and is the unique perfect matching contained in B′∖Y′B'\setminus Y'B′∖Y′, where Y′Y'Y′ is the set of basic split slack arcs:

B′ is a good augmented spanning tree,A1′ is the unique perfect matching in B′∖Y′.B'\text{ is a good augmented spanning tree},\qquad A'_1\text{ is the unique perfect matching in }B'\setminus Y'.B′ is a good augmented spanning tree,A1′​ is the unique perfect matching in B′∖Y′.

The qualification on uniqueness follows the theorem's proof: the printed phrase “in G′G'G′” is false for graphs with multiple cycle covers. The paper's clause (iii), claiming a particular disjoint-path decomposition, is false as printed even for a nondegenerate basis and is not posed here. The milestones cover stabilization of feasible bases, the GNF interpretation, the GNF basis characterization, the equivalence between balanced and breakeven cycles, connectivity of ultimate bases, and the four parts of Theorem 3.3.

What the result establishes

The graph description narrows every ultimate feasible basis to a connected, one-cycle object, and the matching identifies one large-flow arc incident to every split vertex. Together these statements give a precise structure to a polytope motivated by the Hamilton cycle problem. They do not claim that an arbitrary ultimate basis is itself a Hamilton cycle or that the polytope solves the Hamilton cycle problem. The distinction matters: the thick arcs may form several directed cycles on the original graph (Theorem 3.3, p. 12).

A Lean development would put reusable GNF notions—capacity bounds, basis columns, oriented cycles, cycle multipliers and good augmented forests—alongside a precise model of this paper's polytope. The results are proved in the paper; the mission's open work is to supply machine-checked proofs of the stated Lean theorems, including the asymptotic statements for ultimate bases.

The difficult point

For an arbitrary GNF polytope, a nonsingular basis may have several augmented-tree components. The general GNF basis theorem therefore gives a good augmented forest, but it does not give the connected tree demanded here. The special supplies and slack bounds of WHβ(G)\mathcal{WH}_{\beta}(G)WHβ​(G) must rule out every disconnected feasible basis as β\betaβ approaches one. A second difficulty is distinguishing flow that tends to one from flow that tends to zero without replacing an asymptotic property by a condition at one fixed discount factor.

Formalization scope

Vertices of GGG are Fin n, with paper node 111 represented by 0; [NeZero n] ensures it exists. Arcs are a finite set of ordered pairs, so loops are excluded and parallel copies do not occur. The split vertices are Fin n ⊕ Fin n: inl i is viv_ivi​ and inr i is wiw_iwi​. Real numbers carry flows, multipliers and supplies. A GNF arc has an optional real upper capacity; none means unbounded. Its arc type distinguishes antiparallel and parallel arcs, so undirected two-edge cycles remain representable.

A basis includes its partition, exactly 2n2n2n columns, linear independence, all equality rows and fixed nonbasic values. Ultimate feasibility uses the left-neighborhood filter. Thick and thin mean eventual constant bounds against 1−β1-\beta1−β, quantified over basic solutions; uniqueness of those solutions follows from column independence. Connected components include every split vertex. The finite component edge count equals its vertex count, which is equivalent to one cycle in each connected component, and goodness requires that cycle's multiplier differ from one.

The goal retains degeneracy: a basic flow may be zero or a basic slack may be at a bound. It asserts connectivity and nonbreakeven of the cycle, as well as both existence and uniqueness of the specified perfect matching. The definitions of WHβ(G)\mathcal{WH}_{\beta}(G)WHβ​(G), feasible and ultimate bases, GNF flows and cycles, and asymptotic arc classes are intended for reuse. Contributions toward the stabilization result, the GNF basis theorem, the connectivity theorem and the thick-arc theorem all support the goal.

Selected references

  • T. Kalinowski and S. Mohammadian, Feasible Bases for a Polytope Related to the Hamilton Cycle Problem, arXiv:1907.12691v1, 2019; published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2021. arXiv
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Quickest Detection Problems for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes: The Optimal Detection Time Is the First Time the Posterior Odds Exceed b(X), the Unique Solution of a Nonlinear Integral EquationResearch Paper

Motivation

A change in the dynamics of an observed process is often visible only after noisy evidence has accumulated. Stopping early raises a false alarm; waiting too long increases detection delay. The quickest detection problem asks for a rule that balances these losses when the change time is unobserved. Glover and Peskir study this tradeoff for an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process whose mean-reversion rate changes at an unknown time. Their cases include a stationary process becoming Brownian motion, Brownian motion becoming stationary, and changes between recurrent and transient behavior. The same model is motivated by monitoring a spread in pairs trading, where a change in mean reversion affects when a position should be closed. Glover and Peskir, §§2–3.

The paper's outcome is an explicit form for the optimal detection rule, expressed through a boundary that solves a nonlinear integral equation. The boundary is a function of the current observation, so a fixed threshold on posterior probability alone does not describe the optimal rule. The source for this mission is the authors' 29-page Research Report No. 11, labelled 2017 and later revised; the report's own page and theorem numbers are used throughout. Glover and Peskir, Corollary 12.

Setting

Let XtX_tXt​ be the real-valued process observed at time t≥0t\ge0t≥0. Its starting point is x∈Rx\in\mathbb Rx∈R. Before the unobserved disorder time θ\thetaθ, its drift is −β0Xt-\beta_0X_t−β0​Xt​; at and after θ\thetaθ, the drift is −β1Xt-\beta_1X_t−β1​Xt​. The diffusion coefficient is one and both mean-reverting levels are zero. The rates β0,β1\beta_0,\beta_1β0​,β1​ may have either sign or be zero, but they differ. Brownian noise drives the process. The prior distribution places mass π∈[0,1]\pi\in[0,1]π∈[0,1] at θ=0\theta=0θ=0; conditional on θ>0\theta>0θ>0, the time is exponentially distributed with rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and is independent of the noise. Glover and Peskir, §3, pp. 5–7.

A detection time τ\tauτ may use the observed history of XXX through the time at which it stops. With delay penalty c>0c>0c>0, its Bayes risk is

R(τ)=Pπ(τ<θ)+c Eπ(τ−θ)+,V(π)=inf⁡τ∈TXR(τ).R(\tau)=\mathsf P_\pi(\tau<\theta)+c\,\mathsf E_\pi(\tau-\theta)^+, \qquad V(\pi)=\inf_{\tau\in\mathcal T^X}R(\tau).R(τ)=Pπ​(τ<θ)+cEπ​(τ−θ)+,V(π)=τ∈TXinf​R(τ).

The first term charges a false alarm, while the second charges time spent after the change and before detection. The infimum ranges over stopping times of the natural filtration of XXX, not over rules that can see θ\thetaθ. Glover and Peskir, (3.4), pp. 6–7.

Write Πt=Pπ(θ≤t∣FtX)\Pi_t=\mathsf P_\pi(\theta\le t\mid\mathcal F_t^X)Πt​=Pπ​(θ≤t∣FtX​) for the posterior probability of a change by time ttt, and Φt=Πt/(1−Πt)\Phi_t=\Pi_t/(1-\Pi_t)Φt​=Πt​/(1−Πt​) for its odds when the denominator is nonzero. Under the no-change law P∞\mathsf P^\inftyP∞, the paper studies a second value function,

V^(φ,x)=inf⁡τ∈TXEφ,x∞[∫0τe−λt(Φt−λc)dt],\widehat V(\varphi,x)=\inf_{\tau\in\mathcal T^X} \mathsf E^\infty_{\varphi,x} \left[\int_0^\tau e^{-\lambda t}\left(\Phi_t-\frac{\lambda}{c}\right)dt\right],V(φ,x)=τ∈TXinf​Eφ,x∞​[∫0τ​e−λt(Φt​−cλ​)dt],

where φ≥0\varphi\ge0φ≥0 is the initial odds. The stopping set DDD consists of the points (φ,x)(\varphi,x)(φ,x) with V^(φ,x)=0\widehat V(\varphi,x)=0V(φ,x)=0. Its lower boundary is b(x)=inf⁡{φ≥0:(φ,x)∈D}b(x)=\inf\{\varphi\ge0:(\varphi,x)\in D\}b(x)=inf{φ≥0:(φ,x)∈D}. This defines bbb from the optimization problem; the integral equation below characterizes it later. Glover and Peskir, (4.8), (7.2), (7.7).

Formalization targets

Optimal Bayes detection

The goal is Corollary 12: the original Bayes value is recovered from the no-change value, and the first time the posterior odds cross b(Xt)b(X_t)b(Xt​) is optimal. With δ=β0−β1\delta=\beta_0-\beta_1δ=β0​−β1​ and κ=β0+β1\kappa=\beta_0+\beta_1κ=β0​+β1​, the paper writes the odds as a functional of the observed path:

Etx=(λ−δ/2)t+δ2(Xt2−x2+κ∫0tXs2 ds),Φt=eEtx(π1−π+λ∫0te−Esx ds).E_t^x=(\lambda-\delta/2)t+\frac\delta2 \left(X_t^2-x^2+\kappa\int_0^tX_s^2\,ds\right),\qquad \Phi_t=e^{E_t^x}\left(\frac\pi{1-\pi}+\lambda\int_0^t e^{-E_s^x}\,ds\right).Etx​=(λ−δ/2)t+2δ​(Xt2​−x2+κ∫0t​Xs2​ds),Φt​=eEtx​(1−ππ​+λ∫0t​e−Esx​ds).

The target identities are

V(π)=(1−π)[1+cV^(π1−π,x)],τ∗=inf⁡{t≥0:Φt≥b(Xt)}.V(\pi)=(1-\pi)\left[1+c\widehat V\left(\frac\pi{1-\pi},x\right)\right], \qquad \tau^*=\inf\{t\ge0:\Phi_t\ge b(X_t)\}.V(π)=(1−π)[1+cV(1−ππ​,x)],τ∗=inf{t≥0:Φt​≥b(Xt​)}.

Here V^\widehat VV is also given by the expectation form of (9.6), using the paper's identity (9.4). The value identity includes π=1\pi=1π=1; the displayed odds formula and the optimality clause are used for π<1\pi<1π<1, where their denominator is positive. Glover and Peskir, (9.4), Corollary 12, pp. 24, 26–27.

Boundary characterization

Theorem 11 identifies bbb as the unique continuous solution, among functions decreasing on (−∞,0](-\infty,0](−∞,0], increasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and bounded below by λ/c\lambda/cλ/c, of

∫0∞e−λtEb(x),x∞[(Φt−λc)1{Φt<b(Xt)}]dt=0for every x∈R.\int_0^\infty e^{-\lambda t}\mathsf E^\infty_{b(x),x} \left[\left(\Phi_t-\frac\lambda c\right) \mathbf1_{\{\Phi_t<b(X_t)\}}\right]dt=0 \quad\text{for every }x\in\mathbb R.∫0∞​e−λtEb(x),x∞​[(Φt​−cλ​)1{Φt​<b(Xt​)}​]dt=0for every x∈R.

The milestone list also includes the measure-change identity, the optimality and almost-sure finiteness of first entry into DDD, monotonicity of the value and boundary, finiteness and continuity of the boundary, and the value representation and stopping rule of Theorem 11. Glover and Peskir, §§4, 7, 9.

Significance

The result specifies how to choose a stopping time using only data available to the observer. It gives both the minimum expected cost and a state-dependent rule attaining it. The two-sided monotonicity of bbb says that observations farther from zero require a different level of posterior evidence for stopping, a feature a constant-threshold rule would miss. The integral equation supplies an independent characterization of the optimal threshold. Glover and Peskir, Corollary 7 and Theorem 11.

The mathematical result is proved in the paper. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of its formal statements; the draft statements typecheck, but their proofs are open. A completed development would connect Bayesian filtering, continuous-time optimal stopping, boundary regularity, and the integral characterization in one Lean environment. The pathwise OU and odds definitions, and the treatment of extended-valued stopping costs, can be reused in related detection problems.

Difficulty

The boundary's behavior is the central obstacle. The stopping value depends jointly on posterior odds and the observed state, with both coordinates driven by the same noise. Moving the initial state farther from zero changes the future observation path and the likelihood of disorder together. This prevents a simple pointwise comparison of the running costs from proving monotonicity of V^\widehat VV in ∣x∣|x|∣x∣. Establishing that monotonicity and then the finiteness and continuity of bbb are substantial results of §7. Glover and Peskir, Proposition 6 and Propositions 8–9.

Theorem 11 adds the challenge of identifying a unique boundary from an integral equation while preserving the original optimal-stopping definition of that boundary. The paper states the uniqueness result and refers to earlier methods for some details. A formal proof must also account for stopping times that can be infinite and for expectations whose positive part may be unbounded. Glover and Peskir, Theorem 11 and its proof, pp. 24–26.

Formalization scope

The Lean development fixes x0=x1=0x_0=x_1=0x0​=x1​=0 and σ=1\sigma=1σ=1, and carries λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, c>0c>0c>0, and β0≠β1\beta_0\ne\beta_1β0​=β1​ as standing conditions. It represents Brownian motion by a continuous, pointwise measurable version and uses the pathwise integration-by-parts form of the OU flow. The odds formula is the pathwise expression of (9.12), so no stochastic integral appears in the definitions. The disorder time is independent of the entire Brownian path, and decisions use the natural filtration of XXX. Under the no-change law, the natural filtration of the Brownian driver is used; it agrees with that of the OU observation. Glover and Peskir, §§3, 5, 9.

Stopping times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]. Bayes risk uses extended nonnegative reals; the no-change running cost is represented as a difference of two nonnegative integrals in extended reals. Its real value is used only where the paper proves finiteness. The equation and value representation use the expectation side of (9.4), rather than introducing a transition density. “Increasing” and “decreasing” mean weak monotonicity. The real infimum defining bbb is zero if its fibre is empty; Proposition 8 is the separate assertion excluding that case. For π=1\pi=1π=1, the value identity is retained but the stopping rule's division by 1−π1-\pi1−π is outside its domain. Glover and Peskir, §§4, 7, 9.

The model keeps V(π)V(\pi)V(π) as the infimum of the original false-alarm and delay risk, V^\widehat VV as an infimum over observation stopping times, and bbb as the lower edge of {V^=0}\{\widehat V=0\}{V=0}. Replacing any of these by the equation or representation being proved would trivialize the target. Contributions toward the filtering and measure-change link, optimal entry times, value monotonicity, boundary regularity, integral equation, and final Bayes-optimality theorem all advance the mission. Mathlib's Brownian-motion, filtration, stopping-time, measure, and integration libraries provide the base objects; the specific disorder and boundary constructions are developed here.

Selected references

  • Kristoffer Glover and Goran Peskir, Quickest Detection Problems for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Processes, Research Report No. 11, Probability and Statistics Group, University of Manchester, 2017 (revised version; published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024). DOI: 10.1287/moor.2021.0186. This mission cites the 29-page research report's numbering.
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Operations ResearchPartial Differential EquationsProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Exact Optimal Stopping for Multidimensional Linear Switching Diffusions: The Optimal Stopping Boundaries Are the Unique Admissible Solution of a Nonlinear Integral EquationResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimal stopping of a diffusion whose coefficients switch with an exogenous Markov chain is the standard model for decisions taken in a random environment: an investment or abandonment decision when the economy alternates between regimes, a quickest-detection problem whose drift is driven by a hidden chain, a maintenance decision whose degradation rate depends on an operating mode. For one-dimensional problems without switching the optimal rule is a threshold, and the threshold is characterized by a nonlinear integral equation (Peskir and Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, 2006). In two dimensions with regime switching, the stopping region on each layer of the chain is bounded by a curve, the curves differ from layer to layer, and neither the optimality of the first entry time nor a characterization of the curves follows from the classical theory.

Ernst and Mei (arXiv:2107.14441, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023) study such a problem for a two-dimensional linear diffusion driven by a two-state chain. They show that the first entry time into the stopping region is optimal although the running cost need not be integrable on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), derive the regularity of the value function, and characterize the optimal stopping boundaries as the unique solution of a coupled system of nonlinear integral equations. Section 6 of the paper applies the results to quickest detection of a Markovian drift.

Setting

Let M={1,2}M=\{1,2\}M={1,2} be the regimes and let α\alphaα be a continuous-time Markov chain on MMM with generator Q=(qικ)Q=(q_{\iota\kappa})Q=(qικ​). Let W=(W1,W2)W=(W^1,W^2)W=(W1,W2) be a standard two-dimensional Brownian motion independent of α\alphaα. For x∈[0,∞)2x\in[0,\infty)^2x∈[0,∞)2 the state X=(X1,X2)X=(X^1,X^2)X=(X1,X2) solves

dXti=(ai(αt)+∑j=12bij(αt)Xtj)dt+σi(αt)Xti dWti,X0=x,i=1,2,dX^i_t=\Big(a^i(\alpha_t)+\sum_{j=1}^2 b^{ij}(\alpha_t)X^j_t\Big)dt+\sigma^i(\alpha_t)X^i_t\,dW^i_t,\qquad X_0=x,\quad i=1,2,dXti​=(ai(αt​)+j=1∑2​bij(αt​)Xtj​)dt+σi(αt​)Xti​dWti​,X0​=x,i=1,2,

with λ(ι)>0\lambda(\iota)>0λ(ι)>0, ai(ι)≥0a^i(\iota)\ge0ai(ι)≥0, σi(ι)≠0\sigma^i(\iota)\ne0σi(ι)=0 and bij(ι)≥0b^{ij}(\iota)\ge0bij(ι)≥0 for i≠ji\ne ji=j (Assumption 2.1). The running cost H(ι,⋅)H(\iota,\cdot)H(ι,⋅) is concave, locally Lipschitz up to the boundary, and increasing on [0,∞)2[0,\infty)^2[0,∞)2, with H(ι,(z,0))→∞H(\iota,(z,0))\to\inftyH(ι,(z,0))→∞ and H(ι,(0,z))→∞H(\iota,(0,z))\to\inftyH(ι,(0,z))→∞ (Assumption 2.2), and H‾=min⁡ιH(ι,(0,0))<0\underline H=\min_\iota H(\iota,(0,0))<0H​=minι​H(ι,(0,0))<0. The value function is

V(ι,x)=inf⁡τEι,x∫0τe−∫0tλ(αs)dsH(αt,Xt) dt,V(\iota,x)=\inf_{\tau}\mathsf E_{\iota,x}\int_0^{\tau}e^{-\int_0^t\lambda(\alpha_s)ds}H(\alpha_t,X_t)\,dt,V(ι,x)=τinf​Eι,x​∫0τ​e−∫0t​λ(αs​)dsH(αt​,Xt​)dt,

the infimum over stopping times of the augmented natural filtration of (α,X)(\alpha,X)(α,X). The continuation and stopping regions are Cι={V(ι,⋅)<0}C_\iota=\{V(\iota,\cdot)<0\}Cι​={V(ι,⋅)<0} and Dι={V(ι,⋅)=0}D_\iota=\{V(\iota,\cdot)=0\}Dι​={V(ι,⋅)=0} in (0,∞)2(0,\infty)^2(0,∞)2, the optimal stopping boundary is bι(x1)=inf⁡{x2>0:V(ι,x1,x2)=0}b_\iota(x_1)=\inf\{x_2>0:V(\iota,x_1,x_2)=0\}bι​(x1​)=inf{x2​>0:V(ι,x1​,x2​)=0}, and τD\tau_DτD​ is the first entry time of (α,X)(\alpha,X)(α,X) into DDD. Assumption 2.3 asks that each one-dimensional process dX~ti=(ai(αt)+bii(αt)X~ti)dt+σi(αt)X~ti dWtid\tilde X^i_t=(a^i(\alpha_t)+b^{ii}(\alpha_t)\tilde X^i_t)dt+\sigma^i(\alpha_t)\tilde X^i_t\,dW^i_tdX~ti​=(ai(αt​)+bii(αt​)X~ti​)dt+σi(αt​)X~ti​dWti​ be recurrent to (c,∞)(c,\infty)(c,∞) for every c>0c>0c>0. The truncated problem VNV^NVN replaces HHH by HN=min⁡(H,N)H^N=\min(H,N)HN=min(H,N).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

With a constant discount rate λ≡λ0>0\lambda\equiv\lambda_0>0λ≡λ0​>0, the family {bι}\{b_\iota\}{bι​} is the unique solution, among bounded continuous c=(cι)c=(c_\iota)c=(cι​) with H(ι,(z,cι(z)))≥0H(\iota,(z,c_\iota(z)))\ge0H(ι,(z,cι​(z)))≥0, of

∫0∞∑κ∈M∫0∞∫0cκ(y1)e−λ0t pt(ι,x1,cι(x1);κ,y)H(κ,y) dy2 dy1 dt=0,x1>0,\int_0^\infty\sum_{\kappa\in M}\int_0^\infty\int_0^{c_\kappa(y_1)}e^{-\lambda_0t}\,p_t\big(\iota,x_1,c_\iota(x_1);\kappa,y\big)H(\kappa,y)\,dy_2\,dy_1\,dt=0,\qquad x_1>0,∫0∞​κ∈M∑​∫0∞​∫0cκ​(y1​)​e−λ0​tpt​(ι,x1​,cι​(x1​);κ,y)H(κ,y)dy2​dy1​dt=0,x1​>0,

and V(ι,x)=∫0∞∑κ∫0∞∫0bκ(y1)e−λ0tpt(ι,x;κ,y)H(κ,y) dy2 dy1 dtV(\iota,x)=\int_0^\infty\sum_\kappa\int_0^\infty\int_0^{b_\kappa(y_1)}e^{-\lambda_0t}p_t(\iota,x;\kappa,y)H(\kappa,y)\,dy_2\,dy_1\,dtV(ι,x)=∫0∞​∑κ​∫0∞​∫0bκ​(y1​)​e−λ0​tpt​(ι,x;κ,y)H(κ,y)dy2​dy1​dt.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.4: the one-dimensional truncated problem stops above finite positive thresholds xˉι1\bar x^1_\iotaxˉι1​.
  2. Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3: entry times of the truncated stopping regions are finite, and a criterion for optimality of τD\tau_DτD​.
  3. Lemmas 3.5 and 3.6, Proposition 3.7: VVV is increasing, concave and continuous; bιb_\iotabι​ is decreasing, convex, continuous and bounded.
  4. Theorem 3.8: V(ι,x)=Eι,x∫0τDe−∫0tλ(αs)dsH(αt,Xt) dtV(\iota,x)=\mathsf E_{\iota,x}\int_0^{\tau_D}e^{-\int_0^t\lambda(\alpha_s)ds}H(\alpha_t,X_t)\,dtV(ι,x)=Eι,x​∫0τD​​e−∫0t​λ(αs​)dsH(αt​,Xt​)dt.
  5. Lemmas 3.9 and 3.11, Proposition 3.13: V∈C2(Cι)V\in C^2(C_\iota)V∈C2(Cι​) solves LV−λV=−H\mathbb LV-\lambda V=-HLV−λV=−H there, V∈C1((0,∞)2)V\in C^1((0,\infty)^2)V∈C1((0,∞)2), and its gradient is Lipschitz on (1/K,K)2(1/K,K)^2(1/K,K)2.

Significance

Theorem 3.8 settles the optimality of the first entry time for a cost that is bounded below but not integrable, a case outside the standard criterion. The concavity and smooth-fit results give the free-boundary characterization of VVV (Theorem 4.1 of the paper), and the integral equation turns the unknown curves b1,b2b_1,b_2b1​,b2​ into the solution of a system that can be discretized and solved numerically, as is done for one-dimensional problems.

None of these results is formalized anywhere. A complete development would give a machine-checked account of an optimal stopping problem for a multidimensional diffusion with regime switching, including the passage from the truncated costs HNH^NHN to HHH, the regularity theory, and the integral equation. The uniqueness part of Theorem 5.1 is stated in the paper, but its proof is omitted ("we will omit further details", p. 18); a formal proof would also settle that argument in the presence of transition regions.

Difficulty

The obvious route to Theorem 3.8 is the classical criterion that the first entry time into {V=0}\{V=0\}{V=0} is optimal when E∫0∞e−Λt∣H(αt,Xt)∣ dt<∞\mathsf E\int_0^\infty e^{-\Lambda_t}|H(\alpha_t,X_t)|\,dt<\inftyE∫0∞​e−Λt​∣H(αt​,Xt​)∣dt<∞. That integrability fails here, because HHH grows without bound. Without it, the value need not be attained by any entry time a priori, and the entry time τD\tau_DτD​ need not even be finite.

The second obstacle is the chain. On a layer ι\iotaι, points of Cι∩DκC_\iota\cap D_\kappaCι​∩Dκ​ form transition regions where the process can jump from continuation into stopping without crossing a boundary, so the regularity theory for a Dirichlet problem with one common boundary does not apply, and any characterization of the curves must account for boundaries that differ by layer.

Formalization scope

Regimes and coordinates are Fin 2, 0-based: regime 0 is the paper's state 1 and x 0 is x1x_1x1​. The model is a structure of coefficients; the probabilistic setting is one probability space carrying the chain, the Brownian motions, the flow x↦Xxx\mapsto X^xx↦Xx of strong solutions of (2.2) for every x∈[0,∞)2x\in[0,\infty)^2x∈[0,∞)2, the one-dimensional flows X~i\tilde X^iX~i, and the filtrations. The SDEs are required in integral form with continuous paths; the stochastic integrals are the published relation EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral. PPP is complete, both initial regimes have positive probability, and Pι,x\mathsf P_{\iota,x}Pι,x​ is PPP conditioned on α0=ι\alpha_0=\iotaα0​=ι, applied to XxX^xXx. Stopping times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and the stopping cost is computed in extended reals from positive and negative parts, so a non-integrable cost is never silently replaced by 000. The standing H‾<0\underline H<0H​<0 of p. 4 is a hypothesis of every statement.

The integrals against the transition density in (5.1)–(5.2) are written as expectations, ∫0∞e−λ0t E[H(αt,Xt)1{Xt below the curve}]dt\int_0^\infty e^{-\lambda_0t}\,\mathsf E\big[H(\alpha_t,X_t)\mathbf 1\{X_t\text{ below the curve}\}\big]dt∫0∞​e−λ0​tE[H(αt​,Xt​)1{Xt​ below the curve}]dt, with absolute convergence required; this equals the density form whenever the density exists. A formalization that drops the integrability requirement, or that quantifies over an abstract Markov family instead of the solution of (2.2), would make the uniqueness statement false or vacuous, and is ruled out. Admissible functions take values in [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), where HHH is defined. Green regularity (used only in Lemma 3.3) is read in probability. W2,∞((1/K,K)2)W^{2,\infty}((1/K,K)^2)W2,∞((1/K,K)2) is read, as on p. 11 of the paper, as Lipschitz continuity of the first partial derivatives on the square.

Two printed slips are corrected: Lemma 3.6's bι(z)<bιN(z)b_\iota(z)<b^N_\iota(z)bι​(z)<bιN​(z) becomes ≤\le≤ (both vanish for large zzz), and Proposition 3.7(4)'s undefined xˉι2\bar x^2_\iotaxˉι2​ becomes the threshold xˉι1\bar x^1_\iotaxˉι1​ of the one-dimensional problem.

A complete development needs Itô's formula for switching diffusions, the strong Markov property of (α,X)(\alpha,X)(α,X), comparison for the linear SDE, Snell envelope arguments in continuous time, and interior elliptic regularity. The chain and filtration definitions and the extended-real stopping value are reusable for other regime-switching stopping problems. Proofs of any milestone, of the existence of the setting, and of reusable lemmas on the two-state chain are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. A. Ernst, H. Mei, Exact optimal stopping for multidimensional linear switching diffusions, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2023. arXiv:2107.14441
  • G. Peskir, A. Shiryaev, Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems, Birkhäuser, 2006. doi:10.1007/978-3-7643-7390-0
  • G. G. Yin, C. Zhu, Hybrid Switching Diffusions: Properties and Applications, Springer, 2010. doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-1105-6
  • J. du Toit, G. Peskir, The trap of complacency in predicting the maximum, Annals of Probability 35, 2007. doi:10.1214/009117906000000638
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Hidden Integrality and Semirandom Robustness of SDP Relaxation for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Model: The SDP Clustering Error Is at Most Twice the Oracle Integer Program ErrorResearch Paper

Why compare a clustering SDP with an oracle?

Clustering methods must infer a partition from noisy observations, while the quality of a partition is usually judged against labels that the method cannot see. Fei and Chen study a balanced sub-Gaussian mixture model in which a semidefinite program (SDP) estimates a cluster matrix from pairwise distances. Their Theorem 1 relates its error to a simpler integer program allowed to know the true cluster centers. This comparison makes the SDP's error interpretable through an explicit benchmark, even when exact recovery is unavailable. The paper also investigates semi-random perturbations, but this mission targets the Model 1 comparison on which that broader discussion builds.

The tension is that an SDP solution may be fractional. Its entries express pairwise affinities, whereas an assignment matrix places each point in exactly one cluster. The result bounds the fractional matrix's entrywise error by an integer assignment error without assuming that the SDP solution itself is integral. That is the hidden-integrality claim relevant to this mission.

The model and the two optimization problems

There are n≥4n\ge4n≥4 observations in Rd\mathbb R^dRd and k≥2k\ge2k≥2 clusters. The true label of point iii is σ∗(i)∈[k]\sigma^*(i)\in[k]σ∗(i)∈[k], and every cluster contains exactly ℓ=n/k\ell=n/kℓ=n/k points. For unknown centers μ1,…,μk\mu_1,\ldots,\mu_kμ1​,…,μk​, the observations have the form

hi=μσ∗(i)+gi.h_i=\mu_{\sigma^*(i)}+g_i.hi​=μσ∗(i)​+gi​.

The noise vectors gig_igi​ are independent, measurable, zero-mean, and sub-Gaussian. Their vector sub-Gaussian norms are at most τ>0\tau>0τ>0. The minimum center separation and signal-to-noise ratio are

Δ=min⁡a≠b∥μa−μb∥2,s=Δ/τ.\Delta=\min_{a\ne b}\|\mu_a-\mu_b\|_2,\qquad s=\Delta/\tau.Δ=a=bmin​∥μa​−μb​∥2​,s=Δ/τ.

The SDP uses the squared-distance matrix Aij=∥hi−hj∥22A_{ij}=\|h_i-h_j\|_2^2Aij​=∥hi​−hj​∥22​. It minimizes ⟨Y,A⟩=∑i,jYijAij\langle Y,A\rangle=\sum_{i,j}Y_{ij}A_{ij}⟨Y,A⟩=∑i,j​Yij​Aij​ over real n×nn\times nn×n matrices with row sums n/kn/kn/k, diagonal entries one, nonnegative entries, and symmetric positive semidefiniteness. Write Y^\widehat YY for any optimum. The true cluster matrix is Yij∗=1Y^*_{ij}=1Yij∗​=1 when σ∗(i)=σ∗(j)\sigma^*(i)=\sigma^*(j)σ∗(i)=σ∗(j) and 000 otherwise. Its error is measured by the entrywise norm ∥Y^−Y∗∥1=∑i,j∣Y^ij−Yij∗∣\|\widehat Y-Y^*\|_1=\sum_{i,j}|\widehat Y_{ij}-Y^*_{ij}|∥Y−Y∗∥1​=∑i,j​∣Yij​−Yij∗​∣.

The benchmark is an Oracle Integer Program. An assignment matrix F∈FF\in\mathcal FF∈F has zero-one entries and exactly one one in each row. The true assignment is Fja∗=1{σ∗(j)=a}F^*_{ja}=\mathbf1\{\sigma^*(j)=a\}Fja∗​=1{σ∗(j)=a}. The oracle sees the centers and augmented observations hˉj=μσ∗(j)+(2κ)−1gj\bar h_j=\mu_{\sigma^*(j)}+(2\kappa)^{-1}g_jhˉj​=μσ∗(j)​+(2κ)−1gj​ with the fixed κ=1/8\kappa=1/8κ=1/8, so its noise is four times the realized noise in hjh_jhj​. It minimizes

η(F)=∑j,a∥hˉj−μa∥22Fja.\eta(F)=\sum_{j,a}\|\bar h_j-\mu_a\|_2^2F_{ja}.η(F)=j,a∑​∥hˉj​−μa​∥22​Fja​.

The Oracle error is the largest 12∥F−F∗∥1\tfrac12\|F-F^*\|_121​∥F−F∗∥1​ among assignments satisfying η(F)≤η(F∗)\eta(F)\le\eta(F^*)η(F)≤η(F∗). The Oracle feasible set has no balance constraint. In contrast, the SDP retains the row-sum constraint inherited from balanced clustering.

Formalization targets

Main goal: Theorem 1

The goal is the paper's quantitative comparison. It asserts that universal constants Cs>0C_s>0Cs​>0 and C≥1C\ge1C≥1 exist such that, when

s2≥Cs(kdnlog⁡n+kdn+k),s^2\ge C_s\left(\sqrt{\frac{kd}{n}\log n}+\frac{kd}{n}+k\right),s2≥Cs​(nkd​logn​+nkd​+k),

an event of probability at least 1−n−C−2e−n1-n^{-C}-2e^{-n}1−n−C−2e−n has, for every realized SDP optimum Y^\widehat YY, the bound

∥Y^−Y∗∥1∥Y∗∥1≤2max⁡F∈Fη(F)≤η(F∗)∥F−F∗∥1∥F∗∥1.\frac{\|\widehat Y-Y^*\|_1}{\|Y^*\|_1} \le 2\max_{\substack{F\in\mathcal F\\\eta(F)\le\eta(F^*)}} \frac{\|F-F^*\|_1}{\|F^*\|_1}.∥Y∗∥1​∥Y−Y∗∥1​​≤2F∈Fη(F)≤η(F∗)​max​∥F∗∥1​∥F−F∗∥1​​.

The constants are independent of n,k,dn,k,dn,k,d, the centers, the labels, and the noise law. The event and the SDP optimum are chosen after the random observations are realized. The theorem fixes the factor two and the failure-probability expression exactly as printed.

Milestone results

The eight milestones follow the statements in Section 5: the six structural properties of the SDP error matrix (Fact 2), the basic inequality (16), the signal estimate (Proposition 3), the two noise estimates (Propositions 1 and 2), the representation of the remaining term (Lemma 1), the identity between the integer program and Oracle error (Lemma 2), and the final deterministic bound. Each milestone keeps the paper's constants and its own hypotheses. Together they expose the interfaces needed to close Theorem 1.

What the comparison gives

Theorem 1 transfers a question about a real matrix optimum to a finite assignment benchmark. The Oracle benchmark can itself be bounded under additional assumptions, as Fei and Chen do in their separate Theorem 2. The present target preserves the comparison even in regimes where the benchmark does not vanish. It therefore expresses an error guarantee rather than an exact-recovery assertion.

A complete Lean proof would connect a probability model, finite-dimensional semidefinite feasibility, and the paper's integer assignment comparison. At present these mission statements are draft proof obligations: compiling a statement with sorry checks its formulation but does not prove the result. The development reuses published definitions of scalar and vector sub-Gaussian norms; proving the new lemmas and the main theorem remains open within this mission.

Where the difficulty lies

SDP optimality gives an inequality for the squared-distance objective, but it does not directly bound the entrywise difference from Y∗Y^*Y∗. Noise enters that objective through both a Gram matrix and mixed center-noise terms. A direct entrywise comparison also ignores the row-sum and positive-semidefinite structure that constrains the SDP error.

On the benchmark side, replacing a fractional matrix error by an arbitrary rounded assignment would not retain the stated factor. The paper identifies an intermediate linear program whose value can be controlled at integer cardinalities. Formalizing the result requires preserving that cardinality constraint, the exact coefficient κ=1/8\kappa=1/8κ=1/8, and the distinction between the observed points and the oracle's augmented points.

Formalization scope

Points, clusters, and coordinates use finite index types; Lean indices start at zero while the paper's [n][n][n] and [k][k][k] start at one. All matrices are real. The trace inner product is represented by a double sum, the matrix ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm is entrywise, and the spectral norm in Proposition 2 uses the L2L^2L2 operator norm. The minimum separation ranges over distinct center pairs, which is nonempty when k≥2k\ge2k≥2. Oracle maxima are finite, nonempty, bounded sets; the true assignment is a feasible candidate. The normalized denominators are nonzero under n≥4n\ge4n≥4 and k≥2k\ge2k≥2 with balanced labels.

The random model uses one probability space and the same noise realization in both hhh and hˉ\bar hhˉ. Measurability, zero mean, independence, and the extended-nonnegative vector sub-Gaussian norm bound are explicit. High-probability conclusions use measurable events and quantify over every optimum at each realized data set. Deterministic milestones take a fixed realization and do not add a probability space. The universal constants occur before all model parameters. These choices rule out a vacuous instance-dependent SNR constant, a norm that assigns zero to heavy-tailed noise, and an SDP optimum chosen before observing the noise.

The scope is Theorem 1 and its selected Section 5 statements. Theorem 2's separate Oracle-error rate, the rounding algorithm, semi-random Model 2, and the stochastic-ball special case are outside this proposal. Reusable work includes the SDP and assignment interfaces, matrix-error identities, and finite integer-program comparisons. Contributions that prove the eight source milestones or establish their supporting concentration and finite-dimensional optimization results are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Fei and Y. Chen, Hidden Integrality and Semi-Random Robustness of SDP Relaxation for Sub-Gaussian Mixture Model, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. arXiv:1803.06510v2, the version and pagination used here.
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Convex OptimizationLinear algebraOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Conic Optimization with Spectral Functions on Euclidean Jordan Algebras: The Root-Determinant Cone Barrier Is a (1 + d)-Logarithmically Homogeneous Self-Concordant BarrierResearch Paper

Motivation

Interior-point methods solve a conic optimization problem by following the minimizers of a barrier function for the cone. Their iteration count is governed by the barrier's parameter ν\nuν: the best known algorithms need O(νlog⁡(1/ε))O(\sqrt\nu\log(1/\varepsilon))O(ν​log(1/ε)) iterations to reach accuracy ε\varepsilonε (Nesterov and Todd, 1997). A cone can be used natively by a solver only once a logarithmically homogeneous self-concordant barrier (LHSCB) with a small parameter is known for it, together with efficient oracles for its derivatives.

Coey, Kapelevich and Vielma (arXiv:2103.04104v2; Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022) study cones defined by spectral functions on Euclidean Jordan algebras. This framework covers vectors, real symmetric matrices and complex Hermitian matrices at once. The paper implements the resulting cones in the solver Hypatia. One of its two new barrier results concerns the root-determinant cone, the hypograph of the geometric mean of the eigenvalues. For symmetric matrices this is the hypograph of det⁡(W)1/d\det(W)^{1/d}det(W)1/d over the positive semidefinite cone, a standard modelling device for D-optimal experimental design and for determinant maximization. Before this paper, the usual way to represent it was an extended formulation with auxiliary variables and a semidefinite constraint.

Setting

A Jordan algebra is a real vector space VVV with a bilinear product ∘\circ∘ that is commutative and satisfies the Jordan identity wa∘(wa2∘wb)=wa2∘(wa∘wb)w_a\circ(w_a^2\circ w_b)=w_a^2\circ(w_a\circ w_b)wa​∘(wa2​∘wb​)=wa2​∘(wa​∘wb​), where w2:=w∘ww^2:=w\circ ww2:=w∘w. It has a multiplicative identity eee. It is Euclidean if ⟨wa∘wb,wc⟩=⟨wb,wa∘wc⟩\langle w_a\circ w_b,w_c\rangle=\langle w_b,w_a\circ w_c\rangle⟨wa​∘wb​,wc​⟩=⟨wb​,wa​∘wc​⟩. An idempotent is a ccc with c2=cc^2=cc2=c. It is primitive if it is non-zero and is not the sum of two orthogonal non-zero idempotents. A Jordan frame is a family c1,…,cdc_1,\dots,c_dc1​,…,cd​ of pairwise orthogonal primitive idempotents summing to eee. Every Jordan frame of VVV has the same size ddd, the rank of VVV.

Every w∈Vw\in Vw∈V has a spectral decomposition w=∑i∈[ ⁣[d] ⁣]wiciw=\sum_{i\in[\![d]\!]}w_ic_iw=∑i∈[[d]]​wi​ci​ over a Jordan frame, with real eigenvalues w1,…,wdw_1,\dots,w_dw1​,…,wd​. From these, det⁡(w)=∏iwi\det(w)=\prod_iw_idet(w)=∏i​wi​, tr⁡(w)=∑iwi\operatorname{tr}(w)=\sum_iw_itr(w)=∑i​wi​, and a real function fff acts by f(w)=∑if(wi)cif(w)=\sum_if(w_i)c_if(w)=∑i​f(wi​)ci​. The inner product is the trace form ⟨wa,wb⟩=tr⁡(wa∘wb)\langle w_a,w_b\rangle=\operatorname{tr}(w_a\circ w_b)⟨wa​,wb​⟩=tr(wa​∘wb​). The cone of squares is Q={w∘w:w∈V}\mathcal Q=\{w\circ w:w\in V\}Q={w∘w:w∈V}; w≻0w\succ0w≻0 means w∈int⁡(Q)w\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal Q)w∈int(Q). The quadratic representation is P(w)=2L(w)2−L(w2)P(w)=2L(w)^2-L(w^2)P(w)=2L(w)2−L(w2), where L(w)v=w∘vL(w)v=w\circ vL(w)v=w∘v.

The root-determinant is φ(w)=det⁡(w)1/d\varphi(w)=\det(w)^{1/d}φ(w)=det(w)1/d on Q\mathcal QQ. With E=R×Q\mathcal E=\mathbb R\times\mathcal QE=R×Q and ζ(u,w)=φ(w)−u\zeta(u,w)=\varphi(w)-uζ(u,w)=φ(w)−u, the root-determinant cone and its candidate barrier are

Krtdet={(u,w)∈R×Q: u≤det⁡(w)1/d},Γ(u,w)=−log⁡ζ(u,w)−log⁡det⁡(w).\mathcal K_{\mathrm{rtdet}}=\{(u,w)\in\mathbb R\times\mathcal Q:\ u\le\det(w)^{1/d}\},\qquad \Gamma(u,w)=-\log\zeta(u,w)-\log\det(w).Krtdet​={(u,w)∈R×Q: u≤det(w)1/d},Γ(u,w)=−logζ(u,w)−logdet(w).

A function Γ\GammaΓ is a ν\nuν-LHSCB for a cone K\mathcal KK if it is C3C^3C3 and convex on int⁡(K)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal K)int(K) and tends to +∞+\infty+∞ at the boundary. It must also satisfy Γ(θu~)=Γ(u~)−νlog⁡θ\Gamma(\theta\tilde u)=\Gamma(\tilde u)-\nu\log\thetaΓ(θu~)=Γ(u~)−νlogθ and ∣∇3Γ(u~)[p~,p~,p~]∣≤2(∇2Γ(u~)[p~,p~])3/2|\nabla^3\Gamma(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p,\tilde p]|\le2(\nabla^2\Gamma(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p])^{3/2}∣∇3Γ(u~)[p~​,p~​,p~​]∣≤2(∇2Γ(u~)[p~​,p~​])3/2, and the parameter satisfies ν≥1\nu\ge1ν≥1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7.1 (p. 24)

Krtdet is a proper cone, and  Γ is a (1+d)-LHSCB for Krtdet.\mathcal K_{\mathrm{rtdet}}\ \text{is a proper cone, and}\ \ \Gamma\ \text{is a}\ (1+d)\text{-LHSCB for}\ \mathcal K_{\mathrm{rtdet}}.Krtdet​ is a proper cone, and  Γ is a (1+d)-LHSCB for Krtdet​.

The goal holds for every finite-dimensional Euclidean Jordan algebra of rank d≥1d\ge1d≥1, not for one matrix algebra.

Milestones, in proof order

  1. Krtdet\mathcal K_{\mathrm{rtdet}}Krtdet​ is proper (p. 23).
  2. Ψ(u,w)=−log⁡det⁡(w)\Psi(u,w)=-\log\det(w)Ψ(u,w)=−logdet(w) is a ddd-LHSCB for E\mathcal EE (p. 24).
  3. φ\varphiφ is nonnegative, concave and homogeneous on Q\mathcal QQ ((96), p. 23).
  4. ζ\zetaζ is concave and C3C^3C3 on int⁡(E)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal E)int(E) (p. 24).
  5. The derivative identities, with r^=P(w−1/2)r\hat r=P(w^{-1/2})rr^=P(w−1/2)r, σ\sigmaσ the eigenvalues of r^\hat rr^, m1=d−1∑iσim_1=d^{-1}\sum_i\sigma_im1​=d−1∑i​σi​ and δi=σi−m1\delta_i=\sigma_i-m_1δi​=σi​−m1​:
∇2Ψ(u~)[p~,p~]=tr⁡(r^2)=∥σ∥2,∇2φ(w)[r,r]=−d−1φ∑iδi2,∇3φ(w)[r,r,r]=d−1φ∑iδi2(m1+2σi),\nabla^2\Psi(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p]=\operatorname{tr}(\hat r^2)=\|\sigma\|^2,\quad \nabla^2\varphi(w)[r,r]=-d^{-1}\varphi\textstyle\sum_i\delta_i^2,\quad \nabla^3\varphi(w)[r,r,r]=d^{-1}\varphi\sum_i\delta_i^2(m_1+2\sigma_i),∇2Ψ(u~)[p~​,p~​]=tr(r^2)=∥σ∥2,∇2φ(w)[r,r]=−d−1φ∑i​δi2​,∇3φ(w)[r,r,r]=d−1φ∑i​δi2​(m1​+2σi​),

which are (105), (107) and (108). 6. The scalar inequality (109c):  d−1φ∑iδi2(∥σ∥−m1+2(∥σ∥−σi))≥0\ d^{-1}\varphi\sum_i\delta_i^2(\|\sigma\|-m_1+2(\|\sigma\|-\sigma_i))\ge0 d−1φ∑i​δi2​(∥σ∥−m1​+2(∥σ∥−σi​))≥0 for every σ∈Rd\sigma\in\mathbb R^dσ∈Rd. 7. The compatibility inequality (103) on int⁡(Krtdet)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal K_{\mathrm{rtdet}})int(Krtdet​):

∇3ζ(u~)[p~,p~,p~]≤−3(∇2Ψ(u~)[p~,p~])1/2∇2ζ(u~)[p~,p~].\nabla^3\zeta(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p,\tilde p]\le-3\big(\nabla^2\Psi(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p]\big)^{1/2}\nabla^2\zeta(\tilde u)[\tilde p,\tilde p].∇3ζ(u~)[p~​,p~​,p~​]≤−3(∇2Ψ(u~)[p~​,p~​])1/2∇2ζ(u~)[p~​,p~​].
  1. The reduction: if Ψ\PsiΨ is a ddd-LHSCB, ζ\zetaζ is C3C^3C3 and concave, and (103) holds, then Γ\GammaΓ is a (1+d)(1+d)(1+d)-LHSCB. This is the paper's application of Nesterov–Nemirovskii Proposition 5.1.7.

Significance

The result gives the root-determinant cone a barrier whose parameter 1+d1+d1+d is one more than the optimal parameter ddd of its domain R×Q\mathbb R\times\mathcal QR×Q, so it cannot be improved by more than one (p. 24). It also removes the extended formulation: a solver works with the cone in its natural dimension. The paper pairs the barrier with closed-form oracles for the gradient, Hessian product and inverse Hessian product (§7.4, Lemma 7.1), and reports computational gains in Hypatia. Because the statement is uniform over Euclidean Jordan algebras, it covers the vector, real symmetric and complex Hermitian cases at once.

The result is proved in the paper; this mission formalizes it. To the best of the curators' knowledge, it has no machine-checked proof, and Lean's Mathlib has no theory of Euclidean Jordan algebras, spectral decompositions in them, or barrier functions for their cones. Formalizing Proposition 7.1 therefore also yields a reusable layer: the Jordan-algebraic setting, the cone of squares, the quadratic representation, and an LHSCB predicate on arbitrary normed spaces.

Difficulty

The obvious route checks self-concordance of Γ\GammaΓ directly. That requires bounding the third derivative of −log⁡(det⁡(w)1/d−u)−log⁡det⁡(w)-\log(\det(w)^{1/d}-u)-\log\det(w)−log(det(w)1/d−u)−logdet(w) by the 3/23/23/2-power of its Hessian in every direction. The two logarithmic terms interact, and no simple direct estimate is available. The paper instead uses a compatibility criterion of Nesterov and Nemirovskii, which reduces the barrier property to the single inequality (103) between derivatives of ζ\zetaζ and Ψ\PsiΨ. In Lean that criterion is not available and must be established for this cone; it is the deepest milestone.

The derivative identities (105), (107) and (108) require differential calculus of spectral functions on a Jordan algebra: derivatives of det⁡\detdet, of w↦w−1w\mapsto w^{-1}w↦w−1, and of P(w−1/2)P(w^{-1/2})P(w−1/2), expressed through the eigenvalues of the scaled direction r^\hat rr^. Deriving them from the structure axioms needs, among other things, the fact that the eigenvalues of θw\theta wθw and w2w^2w2 are those of www scaled and squared, uniqueness of the spectral decomposition, and positivity of the eigenvalues on int⁡(Q)\operatorname{int}(\mathcal Q)int(Q). Only the final scalar inequality (109c) is elementary.

Formalization scope

VVV is a real finite-dimensional inner product space carrying a structure EJA V d. The structure bundles the Jordan product (bilinear, commutative, Jordan identity), the unit eee and the Euclidean property. It also bundles, for every www, eigenvalues and a Jordan frame of primitive idempotents with w=∑iwiciw=\sum_iw_ic_iw=∑i​wi​ci​, and the identity ⟨a,b⟩=tr⁡(a∘b)\langle a,b\rangle=\operatorname{tr}(a\circ b)⟨a,b⟩=tr(a∘b). The spectral theorem (Faraut–Korányi III.1.2) says such data exist for every Euclidean Jordan algebra of rank ddd, so this is the paper's setting. Primitivity forces ddd to be the rank: without it, a frame could be padded with zeros and det⁡\detdet would change.

The ambient space is R×V\mathbb R\times VR×V. Directional derivatives are iterated Fréchet derivatives on the diagonal, and "boundary" is the topological frontier. The barrier limit is taken within the interior at every frontier point.

The following conventions are fixed:

  • the rank satisfies d≥1d\ge1d≥1, since the paper divides by ddd and the goal is false at d=0d=0d=0;
  • self-concordance includes convexity, as in Nesterov–Nemirovskii Definition 2.1.1;
  • logarithmic homogeneity (38) is required for u~∈int⁡(K)\tilde u\in\operatorname{int}(\mathcal K)u~∈int(K) and θ>0\theta>0θ>0;
  • ∥σ∥\|\sigma\|∥σ∥ is the Euclidean norm;
  • (⋅)1/2(\cdot)^{1/2}(⋅)1/2 in (103) is the real square root;
  • (105) is stated in squared form;
  • φ\varphiφ, ζ\zetaζ, Γ\GammaΓ, Ψ\PsiΨ and r^\hat rr^ are total functions that are only evaluated on the relevant interiors.

Properness is a separate predicate from LHSCB, because E\mathcal EE is not pointed.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out by these choices. Specializing VVV to Rd\mathbb R^dRd or Sd\mathbb S^dSd, dropping primitivity, allowing d=0d=0d=0, dropping convexity, or imposing the barrier limit at only some boundary points would each prove a different, weaker or vacuous statement.

Proposition 6.1 (the (2+d)(2+d)(2+d)-LHSCB for the matrix monotone derivative cones) and Lemma 7.1 (the inverse Hessian oracle) are deliberately absent. The first needs matrix monotonicity and Löwner's integral representation and is independent of Proposition 7.1. The second is an oracle formula that the goal does not use.

Contributions are welcome at every level: the scalar inequality (109c); the cone and homogeneity facts; the spectral calculus behind (105)–(108); and the compatibility reduction. The Jordan-algebraic infrastructure and the LHSCB predicate are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • C. Coey, L. Kapelevich, J. P. Vielma, Conic optimization with spectral functions on Euclidean Jordan algebras, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022. https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.04104v2
  • Y. Nesterov, A. Nemirovskii, Interior-Point Polynomial Algorithms in Convex Programming, SIAM, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611970791
  • J. Faraut, A. Korányi, Analysis on Symmetric Cones, Oxford University Press, 1994 (cited in the paper as Faraut and Koranyi, 1998).
  • Y. Nesterov, M. J. Todd, Self-scaled barriers and interior-point methods for convex programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 22(1), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.22.1.1
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Algorithmic Game TheoryDynamic ProgrammingEconomics·Captain: mikedeng1

Asset Dissemination through Dealer Markets: The Strategies Built from the Collected Demand Function Form a Rank-Free EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Many assets, such as corporate and municipal bonds, securitized products and new issues, trade over the counter: there is no central exchange, and an asset reaches its final buyers through a sequence of bilateral trades between dealers. Empirical work on these markets documents intermediation chains, in which a block of securities passes through several dealers, each of whom keeps part of it for her own customers and sells the rest onwards: in US municipal bonds, Li and Schürhoff (2019) find that chains account for 82% of the trades that start with a customer selling to a dealer, and in registered securitizations Hollifield, Neklyudov and Spatt (2017) find that about 27% of customer sales give rise to a sequence involving more than one dealer (figures as reported by Colliard and Demange, p. 1). Colliard and Demange (SSRN 3244321, forthcoming in Management Science) build a model of this process in which the length of the chain, the prices and the quantities are all equilibrium outcomes, and the friction that makes the chain finite is asymmetric information about how much each dealer's customers want to buy.

The equilibrium of that model rests on one object, the collected demand Ω\OmegaΩ, defined by a functional equation. This mission formalizes the existence and properties of Ω\OmegaΩ and the theorem that the strategies built from it form an equilibrium of the dealer game.

Setting

An asset pays a sure return ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 per unit. Dealers D1,D2,…D_1,D_2,\dotsD1​,D2​,… arrive in sequence. Each is available to trade with probability q∈(0,1)q\in(0,1)q∈(0,1), independently. Dealer DnD_nDn​'s customers buy up to vnCv^C_nvnC​ units at price ρ\rhoρ; the customer demand ωn=ρvnC\omega_n=\rho v^C_nωn​=ρvnC​ is private information of DnD_nDn​ and is drawn i.i.d. from a distribution GGG on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ with finite mean. Write H(ω)=Pr⁡(ω~≥ω)H(\omega)=\Pr(\tilde\omega\ge\omega)H(ω)=Pr(ω~≥ω). GGG may have atoms. Dealers borrow cash at the funding spread r>0r>0r>0.

A dealer of type ω\omegaω who accepts a take-it-or-leave-it offer (p,v)(p,v)(p,v) (volume vvv at unit price ppp) sells to her customers and has financing needs y=max⁡(pv−ω,0)y=\max(pv-\omega,0)y=max(pv−ω,0), which she covers by borrowing or by making a new offer (pn,vn)(p_n,v_n)(pn​,vn​) to the next dealer, with 0≤vn≤v0\le v_n\le v0≤vn​≤v. If the next dealer accepts with probability Φ(pn,vn)\Phi(p_n,v_n)Φ(pn​,vn​), her expected profit (5) is

π=(ρ−p)v−ry+q Φ(pn,vn)[rmin⁡(pnvn,y)−(ρ−pn)vn].\pi=(\rho-p)v-ry+q\,\Phi(p_n,v_n)\bigl[r\min(p_nv_n,y)-(\rho-p_n)v_n\bigr].π=(ρ−p)v−ry+qΦ(pn​,vn​)[rmin(pn​vn​,y)−(ρ−pn​)vn​].

A rank-free equilibrium (Definition 1) is a strategy (an acceptance rule A(p,v,ω)A(p,v,\omega)A(p,v,ω) and a new-offer rule (P,V)(P,V)(P,V)) that does not depend on the dealer's position in the chain, such that Φ\PhiΦ is the acceptance probability induced by AAA, the new offer maximizes π\piπ over all feasible offers, and a dealer accepts exactly when this maximal profit is non-negative.

The collected demand is the function Ω\OmegaΩ on R+\mathbb R_+R+​ solving

Ω(0)=0,Ω(y)=sup⁡0≤ω≤yqH(ω)(ω+Ω(y−ω))(y>0).(9)\Omega(0)=0,\qquad \Omega(y)=\sup_{0\le\omega\le y} qH(\omega)\bigl(\omega+\Omega(y-\omega)\bigr)\quad(y>0).\tag{9}Ω(0)=0,Ω(y)=0≤ω≤ysup​qH(ω)(ω+Ω(y−ω))(y>0).(9)

The maximizers form the set T(y)\mathcal T(y)T(y) of targeted values (10); a selection is a function TTT with T(y)∈T(y)T(y)\in\mathcal T(y)T(y)∈T(y) for all y≥0y\ge0y≥0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2

For Ω\OmegaΩ bounded, continuous and solving (9), and any selection TTT, put π∗(p,v,y)=(ρ−p)v−ry+rΩ(y)\pi^*(p,v,y)=(\rho-p)v-ry+r\Omega(y)π∗(p,v,y)=(ρ−p)v−ry+rΩ(y). The strategy "accept (p,v)(p,v)(p,v) iff π∗(p,v,y)≥0\pi^*(p,v,y)\ge0π∗(p,v,y)≥0; on acceptance with y>0y>0y>0 offer (P(y),V(y))(P(y),V(y))(P(y),V(y)) with

P(y)V(y)=y,(ρ−P(y))V(y)−ry+r(T(y)+Ω(y−T(y)))=0(14)P(y)V(y)=y,\qquad (\rho-P(y))V(y)-ry+r\bigl(T(y)+\Omega(y-T(y))\bigr)=0\tag{14}P(y)V(y)=y,(ρ−P(y))V(y)−ry+r(T(y)+Ω(y−T(y)))=0(14)

(and no offer when y=0y=0y=0)" is a rank-free equilibrium. Moreover P(y)≤ρP(y)\le\rhoP(y)≤ρ, 0≤V(y)≤v−ω/ρ0\le V(y)\le v-\omega/\rho0≤V(y)≤v−ω/ρ, the offer's expected transaction payoff is rΩ(y)r\Omega(y)rΩ(y), and the dealer's profit is π∗(p,v,y)\pi^*(p,v,y)π∗(p,v,y).

Milestones

  1. Ψ(β)(y)=max⁡0≤ω≤yqH(ω)(ω+β(y−ω))\Psi(\beta)(y)=\max_{0\le\omega\le y}qH(\omega)(\omega+\beta(y-\omega))Ψ(β)(y)=max0≤ω≤y​qH(ω)(ω+β(y−ω)) maps bounded continuous non-negative β\betaβ with β(0)=0\beta(0)=0β(0)=0 to such functions and is a qqq-contraction in sup-norm (proof of Theorem 1).
  2. Theorem 1: a unique bounded continuous solution of (9) exists; the supremum in (9) is reached; Ω\OmegaΩ is qqq-Lipschitz and non-decreasing; hence Ω(z)≤qz\Omega(z)\le qzΩ(z)≤qz and z↦z−Ω(z)z\mapsto z-\Omega(z)z↦z−Ω(z) is non-negative and increasing.
  3. Lemma A.2: for fff non-decreasing and qqq-Lipschitz on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, min⁡(pv,y)+f(pv−ω)≤pv+f(y−ω)\min(pv,y)+f(pv-\omega)\le pv+f(y-\omega)min(pv,y)+f(pv−ω)≤pv+f(y−ω) whenever ω≤pv\omega\le pvω≤pv, ω≤y\omega\le yω≤y.
  4. The three points of the proof of Theorem 2: the offer is feasible; no offer yields a transaction payoff above rΩ(y)r\Omega(y)rΩ(y); the offer (P(y),V(y))(P(y),V(y))(P(y),V(y)) is accepted exactly by types ω≥T(y)\omega\ge T(y)ω≥T(y) and achieves rΩ(y)r\Omega(y)rΩ(y).

Significance

Theorem 2 is the existence result on which the rest of the paper is built. The comparative statics of dissemination length, customer purchases and prices along the chain (Propositions 1–4, Implications 1–6) are all statements about this equilibrium. It shows that the infinite-horizon screening problem of each dealer, against a chain of unknown length, reduces to the one-dimensional equation (9), and that the reduction is exact: the expected transaction payoff from the new offer is rΩ(y)r\Omega(y)rΩ(y).

The paper proves Theorem 2 in Appendix A; Lemma A.2 is proved in an Online Appendix that is not part of the source. To the knowledge of this mission, none of these results has a machine-checked proof. The mission's output is a checked existence-and-optimality argument for a dynamic screening game with a discontinuous survival function, together with the fixed-point theory of the operator Ψ\PsiΨ, which is not an expectation operator and does not fall under standard Bellman-operator results.

Difficulty

The operator Ψ\PsiΨ takes a supremum over the moving interval [0,y][0,y][0,y] of a product with the survival function HHH, which jumps downward at every atom of GGG. Standard dynamic-programming theorems assume a continuous kernel or a finite state space; here attainment of the supremum and continuity of Ψ(β)\Psi(\beta)Ψ(β) rely on HHH being left-continuous and non-increasing, and on ω+β(y−ω)≥0\omega+\beta(y-\omega)\ge0ω+β(y−ω)≥0. In the equilibrium part, the natural first step, verifying optimality only against the strategy's own offer or against offers accepted with a fixed probability, does not work: a deviation changes the set of types that accept it, so the acceptance probability must be recomputed from the acceptance rule for every candidate offer. The deviation can change both its unit margin and its probability of acceptance, making a uniform payoff bound the central difficulty.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace DealerDissem.RankFree, in one definitions file. Parameters ρ,r,q\rho,r,qρ,r,q are bundled with ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0, r>0r>0r>0, 0<q<10<q<10<q<1. GGG is a Measure ℝ that is a probability measure, gives no mass to (−∞,0)(-\infty,0)(−∞,0) and has an integrable identity; H(ω)H(\omega)H(ω) is the measure of [ω,∞)[\omega,\infty)[ω,∞) (closed, so acceptance probabilities are exact at atoms). Ω\OmegaΩ, TTT, PPP, VVV are functions ℝ → ℝ; every hypothesis and conclusion about them is restricted to [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), and uniqueness in Theorem 1 is equality on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞). Suprema in (9) and (46) range over 0≤ω≤y0\le\omega\le y0≤ω≤y. Acceptance rules are predicates A(p,v,ω)A(p,v,\omega)A(p,v,ω), and Φ\PhiΦ is computed as the GGG-measure of the acceptance set. V(y)V(y)V(y) is (14) solved for VVV (the paper's (16)), and P(y)=y/V(y)P(y)=y/V(y)P(y)=y/V(y); at y=0y=0y=0, V=0V=0V=0 and Lean's value P(0)=0/0=0P(0)=0/0=0P(0)=0/0=0 is irrelevant.

Definition 1 (ii) is encoded as: after acceptance the strategy's offer is feasible and maximizes (5) over every feasible offer; and acceptance holds iff some feasible offer gives a non-negative profit. The equilibrium predicate requires measurable acceptance events for feasible offers, so the quantity called a probability in Definition 1 (i) has that meaning. Added hypotheses, each where the printed sentence is false otherwise: v>0v>0v>0 in "this case surely occurs for p>ρp>\rhop>ρ"; y>0y>0y>0 for the bound 0≤V(y)≤v−ω/ρ0\le V(y)\le v-\omega/\rho0≤V(y)≤v−ω/ρ; non-negative β\betaβ in the contraction milestone.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: Φ\PhiΦ is never a free parameter, optimality is against all feasible offers rather than the strategy's own, Ω\OmegaΩ must solve (9) at every y>0y>0y>0, and T(y)T(y)T(y) must be a maximizer, not merely a point of [0,y][0,y][0,y].

A complete development needs suprema over compact intervals of upper semicontinuous functions, the Banach fixed-point theorem on bounded continuous functions on R+\mathbb R_+R+​, and Markov's inequality for ωH(ω)≤Eω~\omega H(\omega)\le\mathbb E\tilde\omegaωH(ω)≤Eω~. The fixed-point machinery for sup-over-interval operators is reusable for other sequential search and screening models. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as is a proof of Theorem 2 from the milestones.

Selected references

  • J.-E. Colliard and G. Demange, Asset Dissemination through Dealer Markets, Management Science (forthcoming; authors' version of September 17, 2020), SSRN 3244321. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3244321 — published version: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2020.3779
  • D. Li and N. Schürhoff, Dealer Networks, The Journal of Finance 74(1), 91–144, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12728
  • B. Hollifield, A. Neklyudov and C. Spatt, Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Networks, and the Pricing of Securitizations, The Review of Financial Studies 30(9), 2017. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhx027
  • N. L. Stokey and R. E. Lucas, with E. C. Prescott, Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics, Harvard University Press, 1989 (Theorem 3.3, Blackwell's sufficient conditions). https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674750968
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Actuarial ScienceOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Endogenous Inverse Demand Functions: Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for a Unique Clearing Price of a Liquidated ClaimResearch Paper

Motivation

When a bank or fund in distress must sell a large position, the price it receives depends on how much it sells: the market's capacity to absorb the sale is finite. Models of fire sales and systemic risk (for instance Cifuentes, Shin and Ferrucci and Amini, Filipović and Minca) encode this through an inverse demand function, the price per unit as a function of the quantity liquidated. In most of this literature the inverse demand function is postulated exogenously, typically linear or exponential.

Bichuch and Feinstein (arXiv:2012.08002v3, 2022; Operations Research) derive the inverse demand function endogenously, from the utility-maximising behaviour of the market participants who buy the liquidated assets. Their starting point is the classical risk-exchange equilibrium of Bühlmann (1980), whose pricing measure generalises the Esscher premium of actuarial science. The price of a liquidated claim then becomes the solution of a fixed-point equation, and the first question the paper answers is when that equation has exactly one solution, so that the market produces a well-defined clearing price.

Setting

Fix a probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P). The market participants' utilities share a domain D\mathbb DD, either the real line R\mathbb RR or the half line R++=(0,∞)\mathbb R_{++}=(0,\infty)R++​=(0,∞). The aggregate endowment X\mathcal XX is an essentially bounded random variable with X∈D\mathcal X\in\mathbb DX∈D almost surely and ess inf⁡X∈D\operatorname{ess\,inf}\mathcal X\in\mathbb DessinfX∈D (Assumption 2.1).

The market is summarised by one function R:D→RR:\mathbb D\to\mathbb RR:D→R, the integral of the absolute risk aversion of the harmonic representative agent. Assumption 3.1 requires RRR to be strictly increasing, differentiable and concave. If D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​, R(0)=lim⁡z↘0R(z)R(0)=\lim_{z\searrow0}R(z)R(0)=limz↘0​R(z) in the broad sense, possibly −∞-\infty−∞.

A claim Z∈L∞Z\in L^\inftyZ∈L∞ is liquidated. Its price vvv must satisfy v=HZ(v)v=H_Z(v)v=HZ​(v), where

HZ(v)=E[Zexp⁡(−R(X+Z−v))]E[exp⁡(−R(X+Z−v))].H_Z(v)=\frac{\mathbb E\big[Z\exp(-R(\mathcal X+Z-v))\big]}{\mathbb E\big[\exp(-R(\mathcal X+Z-v))\big]}.HZ​(v)=E[exp(−R(X+Z−v))]E[Zexp(−R(X+Z−v))]​.

For D=R\mathbb D=\mathbb RD=R the domain dom⁡HZ\operatorname{dom}H_ZdomHZ​ is all of R\mathbb RR; for D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​ it consists of the vvv with P(X+Z≥v)=1\mathbb P(\mathcal X+Z\ge v)=1P(X+Z≥v)=1 at which the denominator is finite. The set of clearing prices is

V(Z)={v∈dom⁡HZ∣v=HZ(v)}.V(Z)=\{v\in\operatorname{dom}H_Z \mid v=H_Z(v)\}.V(Z)={v∈domHZ​∣v=HZ​(v)}.

Write e=ess inf⁡[X+Z]e=\operatorname{ess\,inf}[\mathcal X+Z]e=essinf[X+Z] for the worst-case aggregate wealth after the claim is added, and ΘZ(v)=E[(Z−v)exp⁡(−R(X+Z−v))]\Theta_Z(v)=\mathbb E[(Z-v)\exp(-R(\mathcal X+Z-v))]ΘZ​(v)=E[(Z−v)exp(−R(X+Z−v))]. The uniqueness conditions of Theorem 3.3 are: (a) ZZZ and X+Z\mathcal X+ZX+Z are comonotonic; (b) RRR is linear; (c) z∈R++↦zexp⁡(−R(X+z))z\in\mathbb R_{++}\mapsto z\exp(-R(\mathcal X+z))z∈R++​↦zexp(−R(X+z)) is almost surely non-decreasing; (d) the same map is almost surely concave.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 3.4

Let D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​ and assume any of (a)–(d). Then

∣V(Z)∣=1  ⟺  (e∈dom⁡HZ, HZ(e)≤e) or (e∉dom⁡HZ, lim inf⁡v↗eHZ(v)<e),|V(Z)|=1\iff\Big(e\in\operatorname{dom}H_Z,\ H_Z(e)\le e\Big)\ \text{or}\ \Big(e\notin\operatorname{dom}H_Z,\ \liminf_{v\nearrow e}H_Z(v)<e\Big),∣V(Z)∣=1⟺(e∈domHZ​, HZ​(e)≤e) or (e∈/domHZ​, v↗eliminf​HZ​(v)<e),

and every clearing price satisfies v≤ev\le ev≤e. Both directions of the equivalence, both branches of the case split, and the bound are part of the goal.

Milestones

  1. Proposition D.1: monotonicity or concavity of z↦zexp⁡(−R(x+z))z\mapsto z\exp(-R(x+z))z↦zexp(−R(x+z)) on R++\mathbb R_{++}R++​ extends to D−x\mathbb D-xD−x.
  2. Continuity of HZH_ZHZ​ on dom⁡HZ\operatorname{dom}H_ZdomHZ​, and the bounds ess inf⁡Z≤HZ(v)≤ess sup⁡Z∨e\operatorname{ess\,inf}Z\le H_Z(v)\le\operatorname{ess\,sup}Z\vee eessinfZ≤HZ​(v)≤esssupZ∨e (proof of Theorem 3.2).
  3. Theorem 3.2: V(Z)≠∅V(Z)\ne\emptysetV(Z)=∅ if D=R\mathbb D=\mathbb RD=R, or if D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​ and HZ(v0)≤v0H_Z(v_0)\le v_0HZ​(v0​)≤v0​ for some v0∈dom⁡HZv_0\in\operatorname{dom}H_Zv0​∈domHZ​, which holds under either branch of the goal's right-hand side; V(Z)V(Z)V(Z) is compact.
  4. Under (a) or (b), HZH_ZHZ​ is non-increasing; v=HZ(v)v=H_Z(v)v=HZ​(v) iff ΘZ(v)=0\Theta_Z(v)=0ΘZ​(v)=0; under (c) or (d), ΘZ<0\Theta_Z<0ΘZ​<0 beyond any root (proof of Theorem 3.3).
  5. Theorem 3.3: under any of (a)–(d), ∣V(Z)∣≤1|V(Z)|\le1∣V(Z)∣≤1.
  6. Corollary 3.5: if D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​ and E[exp⁡(−R(X+Z−e))]=∞\mathbb E[\exp(-R(\mathcal X+Z-e))]=\inftyE[exp(−R(X+Z−e))]=∞, then V(Z)≠∅V(Z)\ne\emptysetV(Z)=∅.
  7. The necessity step of Corollary 3.4: if e∈dom⁡HZe\in\operatorname{dom}H_Ze∈domHZ​ and HZ(e)>eH_Z(e)>eHZ​(e)>e, then ΘZ>0\Theta_Z>0ΘZ​>0 on [ess inf⁡Z,e][\operatorname{ess\,inf}Z,e][essinfZ,e].

Significance

Corollary 3.4 turns the existence of a unique clearing price into a check of one number: the value of HZH_ZHZ​ at eee, or its limit inferior from the left when the denominator blows up there. It is the basis for the rest of the paper: the pricing function VVV, its extension Vˉ\bar VVˉ to claims without a clearing price, and the endogenous inverse demand functions fqf^qfq and fˉq\bar f^qfˉ​q of a liquidated portfolio qqq (Lemmas 3.9–3.10) are defined through the unique solution of (3.1). Without uniqueness the inverse demand function is not a function. The exponential- and power-utility special cases of Section 4 rely on the same statements.

The results are proved in the paper, with the proofs in its Online Appendix D. They have no machine-checked proof. Formalizing them produces a verified existence-and-uniqueness theory for Bühlmann-type pricing fixed points on both utility domains. It also records precisely how the broad-sense convention R(0)=−∞R(0)=-\inftyR(0)=−∞ and an infinite denominator enter, which the printed definitions leave implicit.

Difficulty

HZH_ZHZ​ is a ratio of two expectations that both depend on the price vvv. Continuity together with the bounds gives existence on R\mathbb RR almost directly, but uniqueness does not follow from continuity: Example C.1 of the paper exhibits three clearing prices. Each uniqueness condition controls a different object. Conditions (a) and (b) control the sign of a covariance-type double integral, so that HZH_ZHZ​ is non-increasing. Conditions (c) and (d) control the shape of ΘZ\Theta_ZΘZ​, and do so only for positive arguments, so Proposition D.1 is needed to reach the negative arguments Z−vZ-vZ−v that actually occur.

On R++\mathbb R_{++}R++​ the domain of HZH_ZHZ​ ends at eee, and eee may or may not belong to it. When E[exp⁡(−R(X+Z−e))]=∞\mathbb E[\exp(-R(\mathcal X+Z-e))]=\inftyE[exp(−R(X+Z−e))]=∞, HZ(e)H_Z(e)HZ​(e) has no value and only the left limit inferior is available. Both sides of that limit, an expectation that becomes infinite and a ratio whose numerator and denominator diverge together, must be handled by monotone convergence and truncation. The naive approach of evaluating HZH_ZHZ​ at eee as a real number fails exactly in this branch.

Formalization scope

Everything is defined in the namespace EndoInvDemand.Clearing. The probability space is a measure P with IsProbabilityMeasure P. Only the aggregate X\mathcal XX is modelled, since HZH_ZHZ​ sees the individual endowments only through their sum. Assumption 2.1 is stated for it with MemLp X ⊤ P. The domain is a two-valued flag Dom (real, pos). RRR is a function ℝ → ℝ of which only the restriction to D\mathbb DD is constrained and read.

The weight exp⁡(−R(y))\exp(-R(y))exp(−R(y)) is valued in ℝ≥0∞. For D=R++\mathbb D=\mathbb R_{++}D=R++​ its value at y=0y=0y=0 is sup⁡z>0exp⁡(−R(z))\sup_{z>0}\exp(-R(z))supz>0​exp(−R(z)), which encodes R(0)R(0)R(0) in the broad sense and is +∞+\infty+∞ exactly when R(0)=−∞R(0)=-\inftyR(0)=−∞. The denominator of HZH_ZHZ​ is a lower Lebesgue integral and may be +∞+\infty+∞; the numerator and ΘZ\Theta_ZΘZ​ are Bochner integrals.

The printed dom⁡HZ\operatorname{dom}H_ZdomHZ​ for R++\mathbb R_{++}R++​ asks the denominator to be ">0>0>0", which always holds. The formalization asks it to be finite, the reading the proof of Corollary 3.5 uses, because the ratio has no value otherwise. "Linear" means affine on D\mathbb DD. Comonotonicity is the P⊗P\mathbb P\otimes\mathbb PP⊗P-almost-everywhere form. ∣V(Z)∣=1|V(Z)|=1∣V(Z)∣=1 is ∃!, ∣V(Z)∣≤1|V(Z)|\le1∣V(Z)∣≤1 is Set.Subsingleton, and lim inf⁡v↗e\liminf_{v\nearrow e}liminfv↗e​ is Filter.liminf along 𝓝[<] e. The paper's derivative statements HZ′≤0H_Z'\le0HZ′​≤0 and ∂vΘZ<0\partial_v\Theta_Z<0∂v​ΘZ​<0 are formalized as the monotonicity statements they are used for.

Neither side of the goal's equivalence can be satisfied by a degenerate encoding. V(Z)V(Z)V(Z) is the fixed-point set of the explicit ratio HZH_ZHZ​ on its explicit domain; HZH_ZHZ​ never takes a junk value on that domain, because the denominator is finite and positive there; and HZH_ZHZ​ is bounded to the left of eee, so the limit inferior is genuine. Both branches of the case split occur: R=log⁡R=\logR=log puts eee outside the domain and R(z)=zR(z)=zR(z)=z puts it inside.

A complete development needs dominated and monotone convergence for parametric integrals, the intermediate value theorem, and a Chebyshev-type covariance inequality for comonotonic variables under P⊗P\mathbb P\otimes\mathbb PP⊗P. The covariance lemma and the treatment of [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued weights with a broad-sense boundary value are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, including ones that route around the paper's derivative computations.

Selected references

  • M. Bichuch and Z. Feinstein, Endogenous Inverse Demand Functions, arXiv:2012.08002v3, 2022; Operations Research. https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.08002
  • H. Bühlmann, An economic premium principle, ASTIN Bulletin 11(1), 1980. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0515036100006619
  • K. K. Aase, Equilibrium in a reinsurance syndicate; existence, uniqueness and characterization, ASTIN Bulletin 23(2), 1993. https://doi.org/10.2143/ast.23.2.2005091
  • H. Amini, D. Filipović and A. Minca, Uniqueness of equilibrium in a payment system with liquidation costs, Operations Research Letters 44(1), 2016. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.orl.2015.10.005
  • R. Cifuentes, H. S. Shin and G. Ferrucci, Liquidity risk and contagion, Journal of the European Economic Association 3(2–3), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2005.3.2-3.556
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Strongly Convergent Homogeneous Approximations to Inhomogeneous Markov Jump Processes and Applications: Strong J1 Convergence of the Poisson-Grid Approximations at Rate (log n)n^(−1/2+ε/2)Research Paper

Motivation

Many stochastic systems switch among a finite set of states at rates that vary with calendar time. A service system may face changing demand through the day; a reliability model may have components whose failure rates change with age. Time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes describe such changes, but their transition probabilities generally involve product integrals rather than the matrix exponentials available for constant-rate models. Bladt and Peralta study a coupled approximation whose observations can instead be placed on a homogeneous Poisson grid. Their result addresses whole sample paths, including the times of jumps, rather than only a distribution at one fixed time. The paper develops this construction and its applications to phase-type models, ruin probabilities, and density evaluation (Bladt and Peralta, 2023, pp. 1–3).

The convergence target is the Skorokhod J1J_1J1​ topology. It permits a small shift of jump times while requiring the sequence of state paths to match after that shift. For jump processes this distinction matters: even two paths with identical successive states can differ at every time near a jump when their jump epochs do not coincide. The source paper provides a quantitative rate for a specific common-space construction, followed by almost-sure convergence (Theorem 3, p. 9).

Setting

Let E\mathcal EE be a nonempty finite state set. An intensity matrix function Λ(t)\Lambda(t)Λ(t) has measurable, locally integrable entries for t≥0t\ge0t≥0; its off-diagonal entries are nonnegative, diagonal entries are nonpositive, and each row sum is nonpositive. A negative row sum allows termination into a cemetery state ⋆\star⋆. Condition 1 bounds all diagonal rates uniformly. With an initial distribution α\alphaα on E\mathcal EE, set

λ0=⌈sup⁡i∈E, t≥0∣Λii(t)∣⌉.\lambda_0=\left\lceil\sup_{i\in\mathcal E,\,t\ge0} |\Lambda_{ii}(t)|\right\rceil .λ0​=⌈i∈E,t≥0sup​∣Λii​(t)∣⌉.

The paper's uniformization construction uses a Poisson clock N\mathcal NN of rate λ0\lambda_0λ0​. At one of its arrival times χℓ\chi_\ellχℓ​, a uniform random variable selects the next state with weight δij+λ0−1Λij(χℓ)\delta_{ij}+\lambda_0^{-1}\Lambda_{ij}(\chi_\ell)δij​+λ0−1​Λij​(χℓ​); any leftover mass selects ⋆\star⋆, which is absorbing. This constructs a path J\mathcal JJ. Independent unit-rate clocks added to N\mathcal NN create a denser inspection grid χ(n)\chi^{(n)}χ(n) of rate nnn. A second, independent family creates an observation grid θ(n)\theta^{(n)}θ(n) of the same rate. The approximation J(n)J^{(n)}J(n) takes the observed value J(χℓ(n))\mathcal J(\chi^{(n)}_\ell)J(χℓ(n)​) and holds it on [θℓ(n),θℓ+1(n))[\theta^{(n)}_\ell,\theta^{(n)}_{\ell+1})[θℓ(n)​,θℓ+1(n)​) (Step (1), pp. 5–6).

For a sequence ck→∞c_k\to\inftyck​→∞, the distance dJ1d_{J_1}dJ1​​ compares two state paths by taking the infimum over homeomorphisms Δ\DeltaΔ of nonnegative time. For each Δ\DeltaΔ, it takes the larger of two terms: a geometrically weighted sum of the largest state mismatches on [0,ck][0,c_k][0,ck​], and the largest displacement ∣Δ(s)−s∣|\Delta(s)-s|∣Δ(s)−s∣. The state space uses the discrete metric, including ⋆\star⋆ (equation (3), p. 5, and Step (2), p. 8).

Formalization targets

For every q>0q>0q>0 and 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1, Theorem 3 asks for a nonnegative sequence ck→∞c_k\to\inftyck​→∞ such that, with κ(q,ε)=4e1/2+ε/2+2q\kappa(q,\varepsilon)=4e^{1/2+\varepsilon/2+2q}κ(q,ε)=4e1/2+ε/2+2q,

P ⁣(dJ1(J(n),J)≥3κ(q,ε)(log⁡n)n−1/2+ε/2)=o(n−q),dJ1(J(n),J)⟶0almost surely.\mathbb P\!\left( d_{J_1}(J^{(n)},\mathcal J) \ge 3\kappa(q,\varepsilon)(\log n)n^{-1/2+\varepsilon/2} \right)=o(n^{-q}), \qquad d_{J_1}(J^{(n)},\mathcal J)\longrightarrow0 \quad\text{almost surely}.P(dJ1​​(J(n),J)≥3κ(q,ε)(logn)n−1/2+ε/2)=o(n−q),dJ1​​(J(n),J)⟶0almost surely.

The same ckc_kck​ supplies the metric in both clauses. Eight milestones cover the source's stated path toward this target: the rate-nnn superpositions in Step (1); the Doob and Erlang moment estimates and bounds (16)–(17) in the proof of Lemma 1; the grid-discrepancy estimate of Lemma 1; the almost-sure time change and path equality in (12)–(13); and the maximal time-distortion identity (14). Each is part of the paper's construction or convergence argument (pp. 6, 8–9).

Significance

Theorem 3 supplies a common probability space on which the approximation and target can be compared path by path. Its probability estimate gives a rate for discrepancies in both the states and their jump times. Almost-sure convergence also supports the later distributional and functional consequences developed in the paper; the paper states a Prokhorov-distance consequence as Corollary 1 and then studies functionals of termination times (pp. 10, 13–24).

The result is proved in the source paper. This mission asks for a machine-checked Lean proof of its precise coupled-process statement. The formalized model would also supply reusable definitions for Poisson superposition, sampled jump paths, finite-state termination, and a J1J_1J1​ distance on nonnegative time. The draft theorem declarations compile as statements with proof holes; they are not yet machine-checked proofs.

Difficulty

The two Poisson grids have the same rate but independent jump epochs. Direct pointwise comparison therefore fails near jumps even when the sequence of visited states agrees. The J1J_1J1​ distance allows a time change, yet controlling it requires both the grid knots and the interpolation between them, as well as the probability of the largest discrepancy among roughly n1+εn^{1+\varepsilon}n1+ε arrivals. A bound at one fixed arrival cannot give the required maximum or the o(n−q)o(n^{-q})o(n−q) tail. The source's formulas (12)–(14) and Lemma 1 isolate these distinct claims (p. 8).

Formalization scope

The state type is Fin p, with p≥1p\ge1p≥1, and termination is none in Option (Fin p). Paths are functions from nonnegative reals to this state type. The metric takes values in extended nonnegative reals so unbounded suprema retain their value, and its infimum ranges over every homeomorphism of nonnegative time. The setup records the laws and mutual independence of precisely the base clocks, the extra clocks with indices above λ0\lambda_0λ0​, and the uniforms. Both J\mathcal JJ and J(n)J^{(n)}J(n) are constructed from these ingredients; in particular, J(n)J^{(n)}J(n) is defined by observations at χ(n)\chi^{(n)}χ(n) placed on θ(n)\theta^{(n)}θ(n), without assuming the path-alignment identity.

The formal statement adds sup⁡i,t≥0∣Λii(t)∣>0\sup_{i,t\ge0}|\Lambda_{ii}(t)|>0supi,t≥0​∣Λii​(t)∣>0. This excludes λ0=0\lambda_0=0λ0​=0, where the paper's division by λ0\lambda_0λ0​ and rate-λ0\lambda_0λ0​ exponential gaps are undefined. It reads the printed initial-state and transition intervals as the intended inverse-CDF intervals, correcting their one-state index shift. The time-change assertions hold almost surely; probabilities of events whose measurability the paper does not establish are evaluated as outer measures. Set.ncard gives zero for an infinite arrival set, a null-path placeholder under the clock laws. For n<λ0n<\lambda_0n<λ0​ the superposition has a placeholder value; finite-nnn statements assume n≥λ0n\ge\lambda_0n≥λ0​, and the asymptotic statements concern eventually larger nnn. The maximum over an empty initial index range is likewise zero, affecting only exceptional small nnn. The natural logarithm is used throughout. Lemma 1 prints an existential constant κ(q,ε)>0\kappa(q,\varepsilon)>0κ(q,ε)>0; the formal statement uses the value its proof fixes, κ(q,ε)=4e1/2+ε/2+2q\kappa(q,\varepsilon)=4e^{1/2+\varepsilon/2+2q}κ(q,ε)=4e1/2+ε/2+2q, which is the constant Theorem 3's threshold 3κ(q,ε)3\kappa(q,\varepsilon)3κ(q,ε) refers to. The Doob, Erlang and (16) milestones are stated for any sequence of independent exponential gaps of rate nnn, the role θ(n)\theta^{(n)}θ(n) plays by the superposition milestone.

The theorem cannot be satisfied by defining J(n)J^{(n)}J(n) through the time change or by assuming the grid discrepancy or path alignment: those are the results to establish. A complete development needs the Poisson superposition law, maximal inequalities and Erlang moments, pathwise grid bookkeeping, and asymptotic probability estimates. Theorem 1, Theorem 2, Corollary 1, Theorem 4, and the Section 3 applications remain outside this mission.

Selected references

  • Martin Bladt and Oscar Peralta, Strongly convergent homogeneous approximations to inhomogeneous Markov jump processes and applications, arXiv:2204.02954v3, 2023; published in Mathematics of Operations Research, 2025. arXiv version used for all page and equation references.
  • Giang T. Nguyen and Oscar Peralta, Rate of strong convergence to Markov-modulated Brownian motion, Journal of Applied Probability, 2022 (reference [45] of the source; its Lemma A.1 is the cited Erlang central-moment bound). https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.11075
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Double Auctions: Toward First Best: With One Seller and Many Buyers, the Mechanism That Couples All Promised Utilities Earns First-Best Profit up to O(√(T log T))Research Paper

Why dynamic double auctions matter

A platform that matches one seller with several buyers can trade an item whenever a buyer values it more than the seller does. That allocation maximizes the value created by trade in a single period. A platform seeking revenue also has to respect what privately informed agents are willing to report and accept. In a repeated market, it can distribute utility across periods through promises about future payoffs. The question is how closely a feasible dynamic mechanism can approach the welfare available from efficient trade. Balseiro, Mirrokni, Paes Leme, and Zuo study this question for repeated double auctions with a single seller, multiple buyers, and independent draws across periods in Dynamic Double Auctions: Towards First Best, §2 and §5.

The result formalized here is Theorem 5.3 of the November 15, 2018 SSRN version. Its central claim is that the paper's specified mechanism earns expected platform profit within order Tlog⁡T\sqrt{T\log T}TlogT​ of the first-best benchmark over TTT periods, under the paper's distributional and reserve-price assumptions. The same theorem states that the ratio of profit to that benchmark tends to one as the horizon grows. The 2022 journal title uses “Toward” rather than “Towards”; all theorem numbers and pages in this mission refer to the pinned SSRN preprint.

Market and mechanism

There are n≥1n\ge1n≥1 buyers and one seller. In every period t=1,…,Tt=1,\ldots,Tt=1,…,T, the seller's private opportunity cost is v0tv_0^tv0t​ and buyer iii's private value is vitv_i^tvit​. The vector vtv^tvt has a common distribution FFF on [0,vˉ]n+1[0,\bar v]^{n+1}[0,vˉ]n+1. Draws in different periods are independent; the seller's and buyers' values within one period may be correlated. A trade creates surplus (max⁡i≥1vit−v0t)+(\max_{i\ge1}v_i^t-v_0^t)^+(maxi≥1​vit​−v0t​)+, where x+=max⁡(x,0)x^+=\max(x,0)x+=max(x,0). Write w‾0=EF[(max⁡i≥1vi−v0)+]\underline w_0=\mathbb E_F[(\max_{i\ge1}v_i-v_0)^+]w​0​=EF​[(maxi≥1​vi​−v0​)+] for its expected value. Over TTT periods, the first-best profit benchmark is ΠFB=Tw‾0\Pi^{\mathrm{FB}}=T\underline w_0ΠFB=Tw​0​.

The promised utility witw_i^twit​ is the expected current utility plus the continuation utility owed to agent iii at the start of period ttt. An allocation qitq_i^tqit​ is a probability of receiving the item, and zitz_i^tzit​ is an expected transfer: buyers pay zitz_i^tzit​ to the platform, while the platform pays z0tz_0^tz0t​ to the seller. The platform's expected profit Π\PiΠ is the expectation of the sum of buyer payments minus seller payments. The mechanism sets next period's promise to its current continuation utility. Promise keeping, dynamic incentive compatibility, participation, and nonnegative transfers are the relevant constraints. In the boundary regimes, the paper uses a weak supply balance inequality q0t≥∑i=1nqitq_0^t\ge\sum_{i=1}^n q_i^tq0t​≥∑i=1n​qit​.

Assumption 5.1 supplies a reserve price r∈[0,vˉ]r\in[0,\bar v]r∈[0,vˉ] and buyer weights αi∈[0,1]\alpha_i\in[0,1]αi​∈[0,1] with ∑iαi≤1\sum_i\alpha_i\le1∑i​αi​≤1. Put μ=EF[(r−v0)+]\mu=\mathbb E_F[(r-v_0)^+]μ=EF​[(r−v0​)+]. The weights satisfy αiEF[vi1{v0≤r}]=μ\alpha_i\mathbb E_F[v_i\mathbf1_{\{v_0\le r\}}]=\muαi​EF​[vi​1{v0​≤r}​]=μ for every buyer, and 0<μ≤w‾00<\mu\le\underline w_00<μ≤w​0​. The upper promise at period ttt is wˉt=(T−t+1)μ\bar w^t=(T-t+1)\muwˉt=(T−t+1)μ. In the medium region, the mechanism sells to the highest buyer using lexicographic ties; the winner pays their value and the seller receives their cost. In the low and high regions, it uses the reserve price and buyer weights, with each agent's allocation throttled by pit=min⁡(1,wit/μ)p_i^t=\min(1,w_i^t/\mu)pit​=min(1,wit​/μ). The definition of the mechanism follows the formulas on printed p. 25 of the preprint.

Formalization targets

The goal is the two-part assertion of Theorem 5.3. Every agent starts with the same promise

w1=w‾0+vˉ8Tlog⁡T.w^1=\underline w_0+\bar v\sqrt{8T\log T}.w1=w​0​+vˉ8TlogT​.

Whenever w1≤wˉ1−vˉ(1+8Tlog⁡T)w^1\le\bar w^1-\bar v(1+\sqrt{8T\log T})w1≤wˉ1−vˉ(1+8TlogT​), a constant CCC independent of TTT satisfies

Π≥ΠFB−CTlog⁡T.\Pi\ge\Pi^{\mathrm{FB}}-C\sqrt{T\log T}.Π≥ΠFB−CTlogT​.

For the same market and mechanism, the theorem also asserts

ΠΠFB⟶1(T⟶∞).\frac{\Pi}{\Pi^{\mathrm{FB}}}\longrightarrow1\qquad(T\longrightarrow\infty).ΠFBΠ​⟶1(T⟶∞).

The lower bound is stated for integer horizons T≥2T\ge2T≥2, and CCC may depend on the fixed market data. The ratio statement is a limit over natural-number horizons. The mission's milestones record Lemma 5.2's feasibility claims, the welfare identity and loss bound, and the exit-time estimates used in Theorem 5.3. The exit-loss milestone keeps the constant displayed on printed p. 30.

What the result provides

The mechanism combines a period-by-period allocation rule with explicit continuation promises. Theorem 5.3 shows that a single feasible rule has sublinear expected profit loss relative to Tw‾0T\underline w_0Tw​0​, while Lemma 5.2 states the incentive and participation guarantees that make the profit comparison meaningful. The ratio result turns the additive estimate into asymptotic first-best performance because w‾0≥μ>0\underline w_0\ge\mu>0w​0​≥μ>0. These statements are proved in the cited paper; the open work here is a machine-checked formalization of its model, feasibility lemma, exit estimates, and profit theorem.

The resulting Lean definitions would also provide a reusable representation of expected allocations and transfers in a finite-horizon, privately informed market with correlated values within each period. The stopping-time and concentration parts can be useful in other repeated-mechanism arguments, although no such extension is asserted by this mission.

Main difficulty

The medium-region allocation extracts realized surplus but does not by itself meet the dynamic incentive constraints throughout the horizon. The low and high regimes change the allocation and transfers to keep promised utilities feasible. The analysis must account for the periods after the state first reaches either boundary. An estimate at one fixed period is insufficient: the relevant event is the first entry into a boundary region at any earlier period, and the upper boundary moves as the horizon runs down. The paper's martingale concentration argument supplies the needed control of that first-exit event.

Formalization scope

Lean represents agents by Fin (n+1), with zero reserved for the seller, and periods by natural numbers. The state before period ttt has index t−1t-1t−1. A probability measure on the infinite sequence of period-value vectors represents independent draws from FFF across time; all quantities for horizon TTT use only its first TTT coordinates. Allocations remain real-valued probabilities, with no separate randomization device. The rule uses the least-index buyer among those tied at the top. Boundary equality is assigned to the low or high rule, as in the paper's exit-time definitions. Each agent has its own throttle in the rule; on reachable coupled states these throttles agree. The positive part is max · 0, and log⁡\loglog and square root are the real functions in Mathlib.

The goal refers to the integral of transfers generated by the stated recursive mechanism under this product law, with the first-best value computed from the same distribution. It does not take profit or the benchmark as free variables. The distribution is supported in the bounded value box, and Assumption 5.1 is part of every theorem's standing data. The finite value range matters both for the mechanism's feasibility and for the real-valued expectations. Solvers may contribute probability, stopping-time, and finite-allocation lemmas needed to close these statements; the main profit theorem and its stated constants remain the fixed targets.

Selected references

  • Santiago R. Balseiro, Vahab Mirrokni, Renato Paes Leme, and Song Zuo, Dynamic Double Auctions: Towards First Best, SSRN 3213460, November 15, 2018, especially §2 and §5. SSRN preprint.
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Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Limit Theorems for Default Contagion and Systemic Risk: The Final Size of a Default Cascade on a Random Financial Network Has Asymptotically Gaussian FluctuationsResearch Paper

Motivation

A bank's failure can make its creditors fail, and those failures can cause further defaults. The final number of failures depends on the network of exposures as well as on each bank's ability to absorb losses. Amini, Cao and Sulem study this question in a directed random network whose banks may have different degrees and different default thresholds. Their limit theorems separate the case in which nearly every bank eventually defaults from the case in which the final counts have Gaussian fluctuations around explicit deterministic values. Those distinctions matter when a systemic-risk calculation depends on the distribution of a cascade's final size, rather than only on its expected size (Amini, Cao and Sulem, arXiv:2104.00248v1, §§2–4).

The paper was first available as the pinned 2021 preprint used here and was published in Mathematics of Operations Research in 2024. This mission follows the preprint's section, page and theorem numbering throughout. Its target is Theorem 3.7 on preprint page 13.

Setting

An economy has nnn banks, each assigned a characteristic xxx from a countable set XXX. A type xxx specifies an incoming degree dx+d_x^+dx+​, an outgoing degree dx−d_x^-dx−​, and a default threshold Θi(n)\Theta_i^{(n)}Θi(n)​. The threshold is the number of defaulted incoming counterparties that bank iii can tolerate before it becomes insolvent. For a bank of type xxx, Θi(n)\Theta_i^{(n)}Θi(n)​ has probability law qx(n)q_x^{(n)}qx(n)​ on {0,…,dx+}\{0,\ldots,d_x^+\}{0,…,dx+​}. The fraction of banks of type xxx is μx(n)\mu_x^{(n)}μx(n)​. As the economies grow, the type fractions and threshold laws approach μx\mu_xμx​ and qxq_xqx​.

The paper represents exposures as incoming and outgoing half-edges. Its balls-and-bins death process gives every incoming ball an independent exponential lifetime of mean one. A bank is solvent at time ttt while fewer than Θi(n)\Theta_i^{(n)}Θi(n)​ of its incoming balls have died. Threshold-zero banks are therefore defaulted at the start. The process tracks five quantities: solvent banks Sn(t)S_n(t)Sn​(t), defaulted banks Dn(t)D_n(t)Dn​(t), alive incoming balls of solvent banks Hn+(t)H_n^+(t)Hn+​(t), alive incoming balls of defaulted banks In+(t)I_n^+(t)In+​(t), and white infected outgoing balls Wn(t)W_n(t)Wn​(t). If Ln(t)L_n(t)Ln​(t) is the total number of alive incoming balls and Hn−(t)H_n^-(t)Hn−​(t) the outgoing balls of solvent banks, the paper's initial recolouring convention gives Wn(t)=Ln(t)−Hn−(t)−1W_n(t)=L_n(t)-H_n^-(t)-1Wn​(t)=Ln​(t)−Hn−​(t)−1. The final time τn∗\tau_n^*τn∗​ is the first nonnegative time at which WnW_nWn​ becomes negative (§2.4, pp. 8–9).

For z∈[0,1]z\in[0,1]z∈[0,1], let b(d,z,ℓ)b(d,z,\ell)b(d,z,ℓ) be a binomial probability and β(d,z,ℓ)\beta(d,z,\ell)β(d,z,ℓ) its upper tail. The paper's functions fS,fD,fH+,fI+,fWf_S,f_D,f_{H^+},f_{I^+},f_WfS​,fD​,fH+​,fI+​,fW​ describe the deterministic scale of the five counts at time ttt after setting z=e−tz=e^{-t}z=e−t. Write f(z)\boldsymbol f(z)f(z) for their vector, and f(n)(z)\boldsymbol f^{(n)}(z)f(n)(z) for the same formulas with finite-economy parameters. The final-size parameter is the largest zero

z∗=sup⁡{z∈[0,1]:fW(z)=0},z^*=\sup\{z\in[0,1]:f_W(z)=0\},z∗=sup{z∈[0,1]:fW​(z)=0},

and z^n\widehat z_nzn​ is the corresponding largest zero of fW(n)f_W^{(n)}fW(n)​. A zero is stable when α=fW′(z∗)>0\alpha=f_W'(z^*)>0α=fW′​(z∗)>0. The class count Sx,θ,ℓ(n)(t)S_{x,\theta,\ell}^{(n)}(t)Sx,θ,ℓ(n)​(t) records solvent banks of type xxx, threshold θ\thetaθ, and ℓ\ellℓ dead incoming balls, with 0≤ℓ<θ≤dx+0\le\ell<\theta\le d_x^+0≤ℓ<θ≤dx+​ (§3, pp. 9–13).

Formalization targets

Final-size law

The goal is both parts of Theorem 3.7. If z∗=0z^*=0z∗=0, the final default fraction tends to one in probability:

Dn(τn∗)/n→p1.D_n(\tau_n^*)/n\xrightarrow{p}1.Dn​(τn∗​)/np​1.

If 0<z∗≤10<z^*\le10<z∗≤1 and α>0\alpha>0α>0, then z^n→z∗\widehat z_n\to z^*zn​→z∗ and the five final counts converge jointly:

n−1/2(♣n(τn∗)−nf(n)(z^n))⇒N5 ⁣(0,JC(z∗)JT),J=I−α−1f′(z∗)eWT.n^{-1/2}\bigl(\boldsymbol\clubsuit_n(\tau_n^*)-n\boldsymbol f^{(n)}(\widehat z_n)\bigr) \Rightarrow N_5\!\left(0,J C(z^*)J^{\mathsf T}\right), \qquad J=I-\alpha^{-1}\boldsymbol f'(z^*)e_W^{\mathsf T}.n−1/2(♣n​(τn∗​)−nf(n)(zn​))⇒N5​(0,JC(z∗)JT),J=I−α−1f′(z∗)eWT​.

Here C(y)C(y)C(y) is an explicit covariance formed by drawing a threshold and an independent binomial number of surviving incoming balls for each type. The theorem also gives a one-dimensional Gaussian limit for every admissible Sx,θ,ℓ(n)(τn∗)S_{x,\theta,\ell}^{(n)}(\tau_n^*)Sx,θ,ℓ(n)​(τn∗​), centred at its finite-economy value. The milestones are Lemma A.4, the largest-zero claim in the proof of Theorem 3.7, and the process limits Theorems 3.5 and 3.6. They cover uniform derivatives, zero location and the Gaussian process limits in the stronger moment regime of Assumption 3b. The paper's Theorem 3.1, Lemma 3.2 and Theorem 3.3 are omitted as milestones because their printed weaker Assumption 3a allows outgoing degree mass to escape to rarer types; the formalization notes give a counterexample.

Significance

The stable regime supplies a distributional approximation for the final number of solvent and defaulted banks and for the numbers of healthy and infected links. It also quantifies fluctuations of a specified type-threshold class. The degenerate regime identifies a qualitatively different outcome: almost all banks default. The paper uses these counts as inputs to systemic-risk aggregates in its following section (§4, pp. 13–15).

The results are proved in the paper, but the goal and its four curated source results were not found as matching formal statements in the Prove2Me catalog during preparation. Formalizing them would provide reusable statements about first-passage times, countably typed death processes and vector-valued process limits. The cited Glivenko–Cantelli theorem is already proved on the platform, while a general martingale functional central limit theorem is posed there as an open goal; neither is substituted for a paper-specific milestone. Solvers can contribute the probability infrastructure as well as proofs of the listed statements.

Difficulty

The fixed-time counts are sums over many bank types, but the type space can be infinite and degrees need not be uniformly bounded. Pointwise convergence for each type does not by itself control the total process or all derivatives of its fluid functions. More importantly, the cascade ends at the random time τn∗\tau_n^*τn∗​, while the process limit is indexed by deterministic time. Substituting t∗=−log⁡z∗t^*=-\log z^*t∗=−logz∗ directly into a fixed-time Gaussian limit loses the fluctuation of the stopping time and produces the wrong final covariance. A proof must retain the joint process fluctuations and the behaviour of the largest finite-economy zero near the stable limit.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin n for banks, a countable type space XXX, real time t≥0t\ge0t≥0, and a single probability space for the sequence of economies; no dependence across different nnn is assumed. It orders the five coordinates as S,D,H+,I+,WS,D,H^+,I^+,WS,D,H+,I+,W, represents each in-ball by an index k<dx+k<d_x^+k<dx+​, and uses ordinary real derivatives. The threshold laws are supported on {0,…,dx+}\{0,\ldots,d_x^+\}{0,…,dx+​}, thresholds and actual in-ball lifetimes are jointly independent within each economy, and the incoming and outgoing degree sums agree for every nnn. These conditions make explicit requirements used by the paper's formulas and proofs. The finite I+I^+I+ and WWW fluid functions use λ(n)\lambda^{(n)}λ(n), the finite mean degree, where the preprint prints λ\lambdaλ (p. 12).

The printed lifetime variance in equations (24) and (39) is too small by a factor of two. The limit here uses the corrected per-bank covariance C(y)C(y)C(y); for a single incoming ball the Bernoulli variance is y(1−y)y(1-y)y(1−y), rather than [y−y2]/2[y-y^2]/2[y−y2]/2. The statement concerns the balls-and-bins death process of §2.4, on which the paper's §3 states its theorems; the equivalence with the default cascade on the configuration model, asserted in §2.4, is not formalized.

The explicit covariance, the joint five-coordinate law, and evaluation at the random τn∗\tau_n^*τn∗​ rule out an unspecified or existential covariance, separate marginal limits, and substitution of the deterministic t∗t^*t∗. The degree moment and probability assumptions exclude junk Gaussian, derivative and infinite-sum values. The model definitions, the corrected covariance and the path-convergence reference are reusable beyond this mission. Theorem 4.1 and later systemic-risk aggregates are outside this final-size target.

Selected references

  • H. Amini, Z. Cao and A. Sulem, Limit Theorems for Default Contagion and Systemic Risk, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2024; pinned preprint arXiv:2104.00248v1, 2021. Preprint.
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Auction Design with Deferred Inspection and Reward: The Optimal Single-Agent Auction Has Best-Alternative Bid b(v) = G⁻¹(G(v) − G(v̲)) and a Continuous AllocationResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller who can inspect a buyer's true value after receiving a bid can use the bid as a refundable deposit. A truthful buyer may receive a reward, while a buyer whose report is false forfeits the deposit. This changes the incentive constraint: a buyer who considers reporting www compares her truthful utility with vx(w)−wv x(w)-wvx(w)−w, not with the payoff from a conventional payment schedule at the false report. Alaei, Belloni, Makhdoumi, and Malekian study the revenue-maximizing design for this setting in Optimal Auction Design with Deferred Inspection and Reward, §§2–3.

The single-agent problem is a useful test of how inspection affects mechanism design. The paper gives an explicit bid function, allocation rule, and payment rule for a general positive differentiable value density. The mission asks for a formal statement and proof of that characterization, including the claim that the proposed auction is optimal among every feasible deferred-inspection mechanism. The source used here is the SSRN copy dated 2022-03-22; all page and result numbers refer to that copy.

Setting

The buyer has a private value vvv in V=[0,1]V=[0,1]V=[0,1]. Its density fff is differentiable and strictly positive on VVV, and integrates to one. The seller allocates one object with probability x(w)∈[0,1]x(w)\in[0,1]x(w)∈[0,1] after report www. The buyer pays the report as a deposit. After inspection reveals the true value, a truthful report may earn a nonnegative reward; a false report earns none. Write p(v)p(v)p(v) for the seller's net payment when the buyer reports truthfully.

A pair (x,p)(x,p)(x,p) is incentive compatible and individually rational when, for every v,w∈Vv,w\in Vv,w∈V,

vx(v)−p(v)≥vx(w)−w,vx(v)−p(v)≥0.v x(v)-p(v)\ge v x(w)-w, \qquad v x(v)-p(v)\ge0.vx(v)−p(v)≥vx(w)−w,vx(v)−p(v)≥0.

The first inequality includes the forfeited deposit www. Expected revenue is Rf(x,p)=∫01p(v)f(v) dvR_f(x,p)=\int_0^1 p(v)f(v)\,dvRf​(x,p)=∫01​p(v)f(v)dv. Feasibility also requires p(v)f(v)p(v)f(v)p(v)f(v) to be integrable, so this real-valued objective represents an expectation. These are Problem (7)–(9) on p. 7 of the source.

For a fixed allocation, (10) defines its greatest compatible payment

px(v)=inf⁡0≤w≤v{v(x(v)−x(w))+w}.p_x(v)=\inf_{0\le w\le v}\{v(x(v)-x(w))+w\}.px​(v)=0≤w≤vinf​{v(x(v)−x(w))+w}.

The best-alternative bid bx(v)b_x(v)bx​(v) is the largest report attaining that minimum, when an attaining report exists. The paper also considers allocations that are strictly concave and differentiable up to a threshold vˉ\bar vvˉ and equal to one thereafter. It calls this class SCD. Those concepts are represented directly in the mission's definition module.

Formalization targets

The goal is Theorem 2 on p. 12. Put

G(t)=∫0tyf(y) dy,b(v)={0,v≤v‾,G−1(G(v)−G(v‾)),v>v‾.G(t)=\int_0^t yf(y)\,dy, \qquad b(v)= \begin{cases} 0,&v\le\underline v,\\ G^{-1}(G(v)-G(\underline v)),&v>\underline v. \end{cases}G(t)=∫0t​yf(y)dy,b(v)={0,G−1(G(v)−G(v​)),​v≤v​,v>v​.​

The theorem asserts that thresholds v‾,vˉ\underline v,\bar vv​,vˉ exist with vˉ=b(1)\bar v=b(1)vˉ=b(1) and with the integral branch of the proposed allocation reaching one at vˉ\bar vvˉ. The allocation is x(v)=1x(v)=1x(v)=1 above vˉ\bar vvˉ and

x(v)=∫v‾b−1(v)b′(t)t dt(v<vˉ),x(v)=\int_{\underline v}^{b^{-1}(v)}\frac{b'(t)}{t}\,dt \qquad(v<\bar v),x(v)=∫v​b−1(v)​tb′(t)​dt(v<vˉ),

where b−1(v)=G−1(G(v)+G(v‾))b^{-1}(v)=G^{-1}(G(v)+G(\underline v))b−1(v)=G−1(G(v)+G(v​)). Its payment is vx(v)v x(v)vx(v) at or below v‾\underline vv​, v(x(v)−x(b(v)))+b(v)v(x(v)-x(b(v)))+b(v)v(x(v)−x(b(v)))+b(v) between the thresholds, and v(1−x(b(v)))+b(v)v(1-x(b(v)))+b(v)v(1−x(b(v)))+b(v) at or above vˉ\bar vvˉ. The formal goal says this explicit pair is feasible and that Rf(x′,p′)≤Rf(x,p)R_f(x',p')\le R_f(x,p)Rf​(x′,p′)≤Rf​(x,p) for every feasible pair (x′,p′)(x',p')(x′,p′). It also asserts that a threshold pair exists.

The milestones follow the paper's route: Proposition 2 identifies pxp_xpx​; Lemma 1 records payment improvements from removing allocation decreases, changing endpoints, and taking the concave hull; Lemma 2 supplies smooth strictly concave approximations with convergent revenue; and the sound part of Proposition 3 concerns best-alternative bids. The final two targets are the differential identity for bbb in the proof of Theorem 2 and the threshold equation (15). Their source wording, page, and PDF hash are attached to each milestone.

Why the result matters

The result replaces an optimization over pairs of functions subject to all pairwise incentive inequalities with explicit rules calculated from the value density. It determines both the allocation probabilities and the payments in the inspection model. For the uniform density, Example 2 on pp. 13–14 gives a continuous allocation and revenue about 0.38080.38080.3808, compared with 0.250.250.25 for the standard no-inspection benchmark in that example; see the source. The difference comes from the seller's ability to retain the deposit after a false report.

The paper has a published mathematical argument, but these exact statements have no machine-checked proofs in this mission. A completed formalization would provide reusable definitions for truthful reporting with forfeited deposits, the optimal-payment operator, and the inverse weighted distribution GGG. It would also resolve proof gaps visible in the source rather than silently taking them as assumptions. Theorem 1 of the SSRN copy is false as printed for its stated bid class and is deliberately absent from the formal targets; the mission's goal is Theorem 2 itself.

Difficulty

The main obstacle is global optimality. Checking a derivative or a local incentive condition does not compare the proposed auction against every feasible mechanism. Every type can contemplate every false report, so a local condition alone does not settle incentive compatibility. The appendix derives the proposed bid through variations of an allocation-dependent functional, including Dirac-delta perturbations and an unconstrained reformulation in Theorem 1. Its admissible bids do not all correspond to feasible allocations satisfying the endpoint condition. A proof of Theorem 2 must establish the global revenue comparison without treating that reformulation as an already valid equivalence.

The boundary is also mathematically delicate. The derivative b′(v)b'(v)b′(v) becomes singular as vvv approaches v‾\underline vv​ from above, although the allocation integral remains meaningful for the intended positive threshold. Formula (15) must have a genuine solution; merely quantifying over thresholds satisfying an equation would make the optimality clause empty if no such pair existed.

Formalization scope

Lean represents values by real numbers and restricts every value and report quantifier to [0,1][0,1][0,1]. The density carries exactly Assumption 1's differentiability, positivity, and unit integral; the absence of point masses follows from the density representation. Allocation and payment functions are total real functions whose values outside the value interval have no economic role. Expected payment is a real interval integral, and feasible mechanisms require integrability of pfpfpf.

The inverse G−1G^{-1}G−1 is the lower inverse on [0,1][0,1][0,1], formed with a real infimum. Its intended calls are within the range of GGG. The displayed allocation uses the ordinary derivative of the explicit bid on its open differentiability interval; the singular endpoint does not affect the integral. The equation x(vˉ)=1x(\bar v)=1x(vˉ)=1 is read through the integral branch, not through the constant-one branch, because it determines the threshold by continuity. The goal states existence of thresholds and optimality over all feasible mechanisms. In particular, the incentive condition is not replaced by the classical vx(w)−p(w)v x(w)-p(w)vx(w)−p(w), and comparison is not restricted to SCD, concave, or monotone allocations.

Proposition 2 and Lemma 1 are expressed as payment-improvement statements, since pointwise assertions about every revenue optimum fail after null-set changes. Proposition 3 keeps the unique minimizer and monotonicity claims but narrows strict increase to the region before the bid reaches vˉ\bar vvˉ; the printed full-interval claim admits a flat segment. The derivative identity is stated on (v‾,1)(\underline v,1)(v​,1), where its terms are defined. Contributions that prove these precise statements, construct the threshold solution, or establish the final global comparison are within scope.

Selected references

  • Saeed Alaei, Alexandre Belloni, Azar Makhdoumi, and Ali Malekian, Optimal Auction Design with Deferred Inspection and Reward, SSRN preprint 3700525, version dated 2022-03-22; published in Operations Research, 2024. SSRN copy; journal DOI.
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Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Remarks on Cyclotomic and Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW AlgebrasResearch Paper

Motivation

We relate the structure of cyclotomic and degenerate cyclotomic BMW algebras, for arbitrary parameter values, to that for admissible parameter values. In particular, we show that these algebras are cellular. We characterize those parameter sets for affine BMW algebras over an algebraically closed field that permit the algebras to have non--trivial cyclotomic quotients.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Remarks on Cyclotomic and Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW Algebras (arXiv:1011.3284v3). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

18 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is Cellularity of all cyclotomic BMW algebras over fields (Corollary 6.5 (abstract main result), PDF p. 17). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Deferred results

15 results of the paper are not stated yet, because the library lacks an interface they need:

  • Unnumbered universal integral system and base change (3.8)–(3.9): Integral generic scalar extension and H-identification (hard)
  • Proposition 3.7: Diagram-to-presentation map and the r-regular indexed monomial family (hard)
  • Corollary 3.10: Specified r-regular monomial basis (hard)
  • Unnumbered trichotomy after Assumption 5.1: Actual Hecke presentation and canonical contraction quotient (hard)
  • Lemma 5.4: Canonical root-truncation homomorphism theta (hard)
  • Lemma 5.9: Homogeneous principal-symbol annihilation, rather than printed p0 (source-ambiguity)
  • Proposition 5.11: Multiplicative restriction of the particular theta to nonunital ideals (hard)
  • Theorem 5.12: Canonical consecutive-level homomorphisms for both actual towers (hard)
  • Lemma 6.3: Ambient-action cellular ideal and descended involution on the actual quotient (hard)
  • Theorem 6.4: Canonical tower maps under Assumption 5.1 (hard)
  • Corollary 6.6: Simple representations and factorization through specific Hecke/BMW quotients (hard)
  • Remark 7.6 (equivalence of (7.2) and (7.3)): Canonical negative compression polynomials and formal product factors (hard)
  • Lemma 7.7: Canonical negative compression coefficients (hard)
  • Lemma 7.8: Bilateral rational expansions, inversion, regularity and values at zero/infinity (hard)
  • Theorem 7.9: Complete four-condition ordinary rationality interface (hard)

Selected references

  • Remarks on Cyclotomic and Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW Algebras, arXiv:1011.3284v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/1011.3284v3
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🏆Completed
Functional AnalysisPartial Differential EquationsSymplectic Geometry·Captain: Mazecto

Lectures on Symplectic Field Theory VI: Elliptic Regularity and Compactness of Pseudoholomorphic MapsTextbook

Motivation

A pseudoholomorphic map from a planar domain U⊆CU\subseteq\mathbb{C}U⊆C into an almost complex manifold solves the nonlinear Cauchy–Riemann equation

∂ˉJu=∂su+J(u) ∂tu=0,z=s+it.\bar\partial_Ju=\partial_su+J(u)\,\partial_tu=0,\qquad z=s+it.∂ˉJ​u=∂s​u+J(u)∂t​u=0,z=s+it.

These maps are the basic objects of Gromov's theory of holomorphic curves, of Floer homology and of symplectic field theory. Two analytic facts about them are used everywhere: solutions of low regularity are automatically smooth, and families with a uniform bound on the first derivative are precompact in Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​. A third fact, unique continuation, says that a solution is determined near a point by its derivatives there.

This mission formalizes these results locally, for maps from discs into a finite-dimensional real vector space with an almost complex structure defined on an open subset, following C. Wendl, Lectures on Symplectic Field Theory, Lecture 2 (§ 2.4–2.5) and Proposition 9.1. Mathlib has no Sobolev spaces of weakly differentiable maps, no almost complex structures and no pseudoholomorphic maps. The definitions build on the Wk,pW^{k,p}Wk,p norm of the DbarRegularity mission.

Setting

  • Target. EEE is a finite-dimensional real vector space and O⊆EO\subseteq EO⊆E is open. A smooth almost complex structure on OOO is a C∞C^\inftyC∞ map J:O→End⁡R(E)J:O\to\operatorname{End}_{\mathbb{R}}(E)J:O→EndR​(E) with J(x)2=−IdJ(x)^2=-\mathrm{Id}J(x)2=−Id. Allowing an open subset rather than all of EEE covers, for example, symplectizations of contact-type hypersurfaces.
  • Domain. U⊆CU\subseteq\mathbb{C}U⊆C is open, usually the open unit disc DDD; ∂su\partial_su∂s​u and ∂tu\partial_tu∂t​u are the derivatives in the directions 111 and iii.
  • JJJ-holomorphic maps. uuu is JJJ-holomorphic on UUU if it is differentiable there with ∂su+J(u)∂tu=0\partial_su+J(u)\partial_tu=0∂s​u+J(u)∂t​u=0.
  • Weak solutions. uuu is a Wloc1,pW^{1,p}_{\mathrm{loc}}Wloc1,p​ solution if it is continuous with values in OOO, has weak partial derivatives that lie with uuu in LpL^pLp of every compact subset of UUU, and satisfies the equation almost everywhere.
  • Convergence. Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​ convergence on an open set means uniform convergence of all derivatives on every compact subset.

Formalization targets

Goal: compactness of pseudoholomorphic discs

Let Jν→JJ_\nu\to JJν​→J in Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​ be smooth almost complex structures on OOO and let K0⊆OK_0\subseteq OK0​⊆O be compact. Every sequence of JνJ_\nuJν​-holomorphic C1C^1C1 maps uν:D→K0u_\nu:D\to K_0uν​:D→K0​ with sup⁡νsup⁡D∥Duν∥<∞\sup_\nu\sup_D\|Du_\nu\|<\inftysupν​supD​∥Duν​∥<∞ has a subsequence converging in Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​ on DDD to a smooth JJJ-holomorphic map D→K0D\to K_0D→K0​ (Wendl, Proposition 9.1).

Milestones

  1. Regularity of weak solutions. For p>2p>2p>2, a continuous Wloc1,pW^{1,p}_{\mathrm{loc}}Wloc1,p​ solution of ∂su+J(u)∂tu=0\partial_su+J(u)\partial_tu=0∂s​u+J(u)∂t​u=0 on an open UUU is C∞C^\inftyC∞ on UUU (Theorem 2.22 (1)).
  2. Uniform interior bounds. For p>2p>2p>2, smooth JνJ_\nuJν​-holomorphic discs with values in K0K_0K0​ and uniformly bounded W1,pW^{1,p}W1,p norm have derivatives of every order bounded on compact subsets of DDD, uniformly in ν\nuν (Theorem 2.22 (2a)).
  3. Convergence. For p>2p>2p>2, if such discs converge in W1,pW^{1,p}W1,p to a smooth map, they converge to it in Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​ (Theorem 2.22 (2b)).
  4. Weakly holomorphic functions. An L1L^1L1 function on DDD with ∂su+i∂tu=0\partial_su+i\partial_tu=0∂s​u+i∂t​u=0 in the sense of distributions agrees almost everywhere with a holomorphic function (Lemma 2.19).
  5. Local solutions with prescribed value. For 2<p<∞2<p<\infty2<p<∞ and A∈Lp(D,End⁡R(Cn))A\in L^p(D,\operatorname{End}_{\mathbb{R}}(\mathbb{C}^n))A∈Lp(D,EndR​(Cn)), the equation ∂su+i∂tu+Au=0\partial_su+i\partial_tu+Au=0∂s​u+i∂t​u+Au=0 has, on every sufficiently small disc, a continuous W1,pW^{1,p}W1,p solution with any prescribed value at 000 (Lemma 2.24).
  6. Local holomorphic factorization. A smooth solution of ∂sh+Jˉ(z)∂th+A(z)h=0\partial_sh+\bar J(z)\partial_th+A(z)h=0∂s​h+Jˉ(z)∂t​h+A(z)h=0, with Jˉ(z)\bar J(z)Jˉ(z) a smooth family of complex structures on EEE, is locally of the form h=Φfh=\Phi fh=Φf, where Φ(z):Cn→E\Phi(z):\mathbb{C}^n\to EΦ(z):Cn→E is a continuous family of real-linear bijections with Φ(z)∘i=Jˉ(z)∘Φ(z)\Phi(z)\circ i=\bar J(z)\circ\Phi(z)Φ(z)∘i=Jˉ(z)∘Φ(z) and fff is holomorphic (Theorem 2.26).
  7. Unique continuation. Two smooth JJJ-holomorphic discs whose derivatives of all orders agree at 000 coincide near 000 (Proposition 2.28).

Significance

The results. Regularity and Cloc∞C^\infty_{\mathrm{loc}}Cloc∞​ compactness are the local half of Gromov compactness: once a moduli space of holomorphic curves has a uniform C1C^1C1 bound, it is precompact in the smooth topology. Unique continuation is the local input for the structure theory of holomorphic curves, such as the decomposition of a curve into a simple curve and a branched cover.

Formalizing them. The mission introduces almost complex structures, pseudoholomorphic maps, weak derivatives and Wloc1,pW^{1,p}_{\mathrm{loc}}Wloc1,p​ solutions of a nonlinear first-order system, in a form that applies to any finite-dimensional target and to structures defined on an open subset. These are foundations for finite-energy holomorphic curves in symplectizations, the next stage of this series. Milestones 4 and 5 are statements about linear first-order elliptic equations in the plane, and milestone 6 is a normal form for real-linear Cauchy–Riemann equations; all three are of independent use in complex analysis.

Difficulty

The equation is nonlinear in uuu and the structures JνJ_\nuJν​ vary with ν\nuν; the statements about sequences are uniform in ν\nuν, with all constants chosen before the index. The weak formulation involves maps that are not assumed differentiable, and the conclusion of milestone 1 is classical smoothness of the given continuous map, not of a representative. The almost complex structure is only defined on an open subset of the target, so every statement keeps track of where the maps take their values. In milestone 6 the complex structure on the target varies with the point of the domain.

Formalization scope

  • Namespace JHolomorphic. The definition module JHolomorphic_Setting defines IsAlmostComplexOn, dbarJ, IsJHolomorphicOn, HasWeakPartialsOn, IsWeakJHolomorphicOn and TendstoCInftyLocOn. It imports the DbarRegularity setting for sobolevNorm (the Wk,p(U)W^{k,p}(U)Wk,p(U) norm ∑j≤k∥Djφ∥Lp(U)\sum_{j\le k}\|D^j\varphi\|_{L^p(U)}∑j≤k​∥Djφ∥Lp(U)​).
  • Spaces. EEE is a real normed space with [FiniteDimensional ℝ E], without an inner product. Cn\mathbb{C}^nCn is EuclideanSpace ℂ (Fin n). Almost complex structures have type E → E →L[ℝ] E.
  • Exponents. ppp is a real number with p>2p>2p>2, used as ENNReal.ofReal p.
  • Smoothness. Smoothness is ContDiffOn ℝ ∞ (C∞C^\inftyC∞, not analytic); derivatives of order mmm are iteratedFDeriv ℝ m.
  • Generality. Wendl states the nonlinear results for E=CnE=\mathbb{C}^nE=Cn with the normalization J(0)=iJ(0)=iJ(0)=i, u(0)=0u(0)=0u(0)=0; the statements here drop the normalization, allow an open domain of definition OOO for JJJ, and require images in a fixed compact subset of OOO in the statements about sequences.

Contributions welcome: general lemmas on weak derivatives and on LpL^pLp spaces over planar domains.

Selected references

  • C. Wendl, Lectures on Symplectic Field Theory, arXiv:1612.01009, Lecture 2 and Lecture 9. https://arxiv.org/abs/1612.01009
  • D. McDuff, D. Salamon, J-holomorphic Curves and Symplectic Topology, 2nd ed., AMS Colloquium Publications 52 (2012), Chapter 2 and Appendix B.
  • C. Abbas, H. Hofer, Holomorphic Curves and Global Questions in Contact Geometry, Birkhäuser (2019).
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Quantum Information·Captain: Goku

Admissibility Conditions for Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW AlgebrasResearch Paper

Motivation

We study admissibility conditions for the parameters of degenerate cyclotomic BMW algebras. We show that the u-admissibility condition of Ariki, Mathas and Rui is equivalent to a simple module theoretic condition.

This mission is the statement-level formalization of Admissibility Conditions for Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW Algebras (arXiv:0905.4253v2). Every numbered result of the paper was scanned. The results stated here are open sorry goals, ready for solvers to prove.

What is formalized

13 statements of the paper are in Lean 4 (Mathlib 0df444a). The goal theorem is The four equivalent admissibility conditions (Theorem 5.2, PDF p. 8). The milestones are the other numbered results, in the paper's order, each quoting the paper.

The paper's own objects are the definition item of this mission. Objects shared across papers come from the prove2quantum library and from earlier papers' missions, listed as references.

Provenance: prove2quantum's pipeline drafted each statement (gpt-6.1-sol on Stanford's Sherlock cluster). A blind read-back, written without seeing the paper, is attached to every item. An independent moderator compared each statement against the paper and passed the whole paper without edits.

Selected references

  • Admissibility Conditions for Degenerate Cyclotomic BMW Algebras, arXiv:0905.4253v2, https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.4253v2
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