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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A Combinatorial Algorithm Minimizing Submodular Functions in Strongly Polynomial Time I: Schrijver's Algorithm Returns a Minimizer of f After at Most |V|⁶ IterationsResearch Paper

Motivation

Minimizing a submodular set function is one of the central tractable problems of combinatorial optimization. Minimum cuts in graphs and hypergraphs, matroid intersection and partition, the rank of a matroid union, and many problems in facility location, image segmentation and machine learning are special cases or subroutines of it. The question is algorithmic: given only a value oracle for fff, find a set UUU with f(U)=min⁡Wf(W)f(U) = \min_W f(W)f(U)=minW​f(W) using a number of operations bounded by a polynomial in ∣V∣|V|∣V∣ alone, independent of the size of the values of fff (strongly polynomial).

Timeline.

  • 1981. Grötschel, Lovász and Schrijver showed with the ellipsoid method that submodular functions can be minimized in strongly polynomial time (Combinatorica 1, 1981). The method is not combinatorial.
  • 1985. Cunningham gave a combinatorial pseudo-polynomial algorithm for submodular function minimization (Combinatorica 5, 1985).
  • 1999–2000. Two combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithms appeared independently: Iwata, Fleischer and Fujishige (J. ACM 48, 2001), and Schrijver, the paper of this mission (J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 80, 2000).

Schrijver's algorithm is the one usually taught. Its proof uses only the greedy vectors of fff, a reachability digraph and a lexicographic potential.

Setting

Let V={1,…,n}V = \{1,\dots,n\}V={1,…,n} and let fff be a real function on all subsets of VVV that is submodular:

f(Y)+f(Z)≥f(Y∩Z)+f(Y∪Z)(Y,Z⊆V),f(Y) + f(Z) \ge f(Y\cap Z) + f(Y\cup Z) \qquad (Y, Z \subseteq V),f(Y)+f(Z)≥f(Y∩Z)+f(Y∪Z)(Y,Z⊆V),

normalized so that f(∅)=0f(\emptyset)=0f(∅)=0. For x∈RVx \in \mathbb R^Vx∈RV and U⊆VU \subseteq VU⊆V write x(U)=∑v∈Ux(v)x(U) = \sum_{v\in U} x(v)x(U)=∑v∈U​x(v). The base polytope is Bf={x∈RV:x(U)≤f(U) ∀U, x(V)=f(V)}B_f = \{x \in \mathbb R^V : x(U) \le f(U)\ \forall U,\ x(V) = f(V)\}Bf​={x∈RV:x(U)≤f(U) ∀U, x(V)=f(V)}.

For a total order ≺\prec≺ on VVV let v≺={u:u≺v}v_\prec = \{u : u \prec v\}v≺​={u:u≺v}. The greedy vector of ≺\prec≺ is h≺(v)=f(v≺∪{v})−f(v≺)h^\prec(v) = f(v_\prec\cup\{v\}) - f(v_\prec)h≺(v)=f(v≺​∪{v})−f(v≺​). A lower ideal of ≺\prec≺ is a set closed under taking ≺\prec≺-smaller elements. The interval (s,t]≺(s,t]_\prec(s,t]≺​ is {v:s≺v⪯t}\{v : s \prec v \preceq t\}{v:s≺v⪯t}. For s≺us \prec us≺u, the order ≺s,u\prec^{s,u}≺s,u is obtained from ≺\prec≺ by moving uuu to the position just before sss. The vector χu\chi^uχu is the incidence vector of uuu.

The algorithm keeps a point x=λ1h≺1+⋯+λkh≺kx = \lambda_1 h^{\prec_1} + \dots + \lambda_k h^{\prec_k}x=λ1​h≺1​+⋯+λk​h≺k​ with λi>0\lambda_i > 0λi​>0 and ∑iλi=1\sum_i \lambda_i = 1∑i​λi​=1; initially x=h≺x = h^\precx=h≺ for an arbitrary order. It forms the digraph D=(V,A)D = (V, A)D=(V,A), where A={(u,v):u≺iv for some i}A = \{(u,v) : u \prec_i v \text{ for some } i\}A={(u,v):u≺i​v for some i}, and the sets P={x>0}P = \{x > 0\}P={x>0} and N={x<0}N = \{x < 0\}N={x<0}.

  • Case 1: DDD has no path from PPP to NNN. The algorithm returns the set UUU of vertices that can reach NNN.
  • Case 2: there is such a path. Let d(v)d(v)d(v) be the distance from PPP to vvv in DDD. The algorithm picks t∈Nt \in Nt∈N maximizing (d(t),t)(d(t), t)(d(t),t), then the largest sss with (s,t)∈A(s,t)\in A(s,t)∈A and d(s)=d(t)−1d(s) = d(t)-1d(s)=d(t)−1, then an order ≺1\prec_1≺1​ maximizing ∣(s,t]≺1∣|(s,t]_{\prec_1}|∣(s,t]≺1​​∣.
    • It finds δ≥0\delta \ge 0δ≥0 with h≺1+δ(χt−χs)h^{\prec_1} + \delta(\chi^t - \chi^s)h≺1​+δ(χt−χs) a convex combination of the h≺1s,uh^{\prec_1^{s,u}}h≺1s,u​, u∈(s,t]≺1u \in (s,t]_{\prec_1}u∈(s,t]≺1​​.
    • It moves xxx toward y=x+λ1δ(χt−χs)y = x + \lambda_1\delta(\chi^t-\chi^s)y=x+λ1​δ(χt−χs) as far as x(t)≤0x(t) \le 0x(t)≤0 allows.
    • It reduces the new convex decomposition to at most ∣V∣|V|∣V∣ terms, dropping ≺1\prec_1≺1​ if x′(t)<0x'(t) < 0x′(t)<0.

Formalization targets

Goal: correctness, well-definedness and the iteration bound

For every submodular fff with f(∅)=0f(\emptyset)=0f(∅)=0:

(i) in Case 1, f(U)≤f(W) ∀W⊆V;(ii) every Case 2 state has a successor;(iii) every run has m≤∣V∣6 iterations.\text{(i) in Case 1, } f(U) \le f(W)\ \forall W \subseteq V;\quad \text{(ii) every Case 2 state has a successor};\quad \text{(iii) every run has } m \le |V|^6 \text{ iterations}.(i) in Case 1, f(U)≤f(W) ∀W⊆V;(ii) every Case 2 state has a successor;(iii) every run has m≤∣V∣6 iterations.

Part (iii) is the opening claim of §5 (p. 352), and part (i) is display (16) (p. 351). Part (ii) states that the description of §4 can always be carried out, and it keeps (iii) from holding vacuously.

Milestones

In order: the diminishing-returns inequality (9); h≺(U)=f(U)h^\prec(U) = f(U)h≺(U)=f(U) on lower ideals and h≺∈Bfh^\prec \in B_fh≺∈Bf​ (§2); the comparison (8) of h≺s,uh^{\prec^{s,u}}h≺s,u with h≺h^\prech≺; the subroutine (12); the Case 1 certificate (16); existence of a Case 2 iteration (§4, p. 352); the location (22) of new arcs; monotonicity (20) of distances; and the lexicographic decrease (21) of (d(t),t,s,α,β)(d(t), t, s, \alpha, \beta)(d(t),t,s,α,β) while ddd stays fixed.

Significance

The result. The theorem gives a submodular minimizer after a number of iterations bounded by a polynomial in ∣V∣|V|∣V∣. Each iteration makes polynomially many oracle calls and arithmetic operations, so the algorithm is strongly polynomial. The same exchange-and-potential scheme underlies later improvements (Fleischer–Iwata's push-relabel variant, Iwata–Orlin, Orlin's O(n5)O(n^5)O(n5) bound). Section 6 of the paper, the companion mission, transfers the result to submodular functions on ring families.

Formalizing it. The result is proved and has been in textbooks for twenty years. It has no machine-checked proof that we know of, in Lean or elsewhere, and Mathlib has no submodular minimization. A complete development yields a verified correctness and termination proof for a nontrivial combinatorial algorithm on the base polytope. It also yields reusable facts about greedy vectors and lower ideals, and a worked example of a lexicographic-potential termination argument.

Difficulty

Correctness (16) is short once h≺(U)=f(U)h^\prec(U) = f(U)h≺(U)=f(U) on lower ideals is available. The difficulty is termination. A single iteration can increase xxx at ttt and decrease it at sss, and it adds new orders and so new arcs. Neither ∣N∣|N|∣N∣ nor x(N)x(N)x(N) need improve monotonically, and the obvious potentials fail. The argument needs the precise structure of the new arcs (22): every new arc lies inside the interval [s,t][s,t][s,t] of ≺1\prec_1≺1​, and that gives both the monotonicity of distances (20) and the strict lexicographic decrease (21). The choice rule for ttt and sss ("largest") is what makes (21) hold. An arbitrary choice can cycle. Well-definedness also takes work: it combines (12) with a Carathéodory reduction over the hyperplane x(V)=f(V)x(V) = f(V)x(V)=f(V).

Formalization scope

  • Ground set and values. VVV is Fin n and subsets are Finset (Fin n). Values are real; the paper allows any ordered field. "Largest" in the choice of ttt and sss is the order of Fin n.
  • Orders and states. A total order is a permutation σ\sigmaσ read as a position map: u≺vu \prec vu≺v iff σ(u)<σ(v)\sigma(u) < \sigma(v)σ(u)<σ(v). The order ≺s,u\prec^{s,u}≺s,u is characterized relationally (IsMoved). A state is a list of (order, weight) pairs.
  • Distances. Distances take values in N∪{∞}\mathbb N \cup \{\infty\}N∪{∞}, with ∞\infty∞ for unreachable vertices.
  • Standing assumptions. Submodularity (the platform definition NonmonotoneSubmod.Shared.Submodular) and f(∅)=0f(\emptyset) = 0f(∅)=0 are the paper's standing assumptions of §2 and §4. Milestones that do not need f(∅)=0f(\emptyset)=0f(∅)=0 omit it.
  • Iterations as a relation. An iteration is a relation Step that admits every choice the paper leaves open: any subroutine output δ\deltaδ, any maximizing index, and any Carathéodory reduction. The reduced decomposition may only use orders ≺i\prec_i≺i​ (i≠1i \ne 1i=1), each ≺1s,u\prec_1^{s,u}≺1s,u​ at most once, and ≺1\prec_1≺1​ only when x′(t)=0x'(t) = 0x′(t)=0.
  • Not formalized. The value oracle, "strongly polynomial time" and the number of oracle calls are not formalized, because there is no machine model. Only the iteration count is.
  • No trivial reading. A Step relation that is never satisfiable would make the bound vacuous. Part (ii) of the goal rules this out, and the goal does not mention ddd, α\alphaα, β\betaβ or the matrix of §3.
  • Contributions welcome. Proofs of the milestones, general lemmas on greedy vectors and lower ideals (reusable for any base-polytope development), and a Carathéodory lemma for convex combinations in an affine hyperplane.

Selected references

  • A. Schrijver, A combinatorial algorithm minimizing submodular functions in strongly polynomial time, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 80 (2000) 346–355. https://doi.org/10.1006/jctb.2000.1989
  • S. Iwata, L. Fleischer, S. Fujishige, A combinatorial strongly polynomial algorithm for minimizing submodular functions, J. ACM 48 (2001) 761–777. https://doi.org/10.1145/502090.502096
  • M. Grötschel, L. Lovász, A. Schrijver, The ellipsoid method and its consequences in combinatorial optimization, Combinatorica 1 (1981) 169–197. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579273
  • W. H. Cunningham, On submodular function minimization, Combinatorica 5 (1985) 185–192. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02579361
  • J. B. Orlin, A faster strongly polynomial time algorithm for submodular function minimization, Math. Program. 118 (2009) 237–251. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-007-0189-2
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Rate of Convergence of Optimal Solutions of Monte Carlo Approximations of Stochastic Programs 1: At a Sharp Minimum the SAA Problem Is Solved Exactly W.P.1 for Large NResearch Paper

Motivation

Most stochastic programs cannot be solved as stated, because the objective is an expectation over a distribution that is high-dimensional, continuous or known only through a simulator. The standard remedy is the sample average approximation (SAA), also called the Monte Carlo or sample-path method: draw an i.i.d. sample, replace the expectation by the sample mean, and solve the resulting deterministic problem. The method is the workhorse of two-stage stochastic programming, and its statistical behaviour decides how large a sample a practitioner must draw.

For smooth problems with a unique optimum, the classical theory says the SAA solution converges at rate N−1/2N^{-1/2}N−1/2 and is asymptotically normal. Shapiro and Homem-de-Mello (SIAM J. Optim. 11 (2000)) observed that two-stage linear programs with finitely many scenarios behave quite differently: their optimal solutions are typically sharp, the objective grows linearly away from the minimizer, and then the SAA problem does not just approach the true solution but returns it exactly once the sample is large enough. This mission formalizes that first observation, Theorem 2.1 of the paper. Its sequels in the same series show that the probability of failure decays exponentially in NNN (mission 2) and extend the picture to multiple optimal solutions in the finite polyhedral case (mission 3).

Setting

Let PPP be a probability measure on a sample space (Ω,F)(\Omega,\mathcal F)(Ω,F), let Θ⊆Rm\Theta\subseteq\mathbb R^mΘ⊆Rm be a set of feasible decisions, and let h:Rm×Ω→Rh:\mathbb R^m\times\Omega\to\mathbb Rh:Rm×Ω→R be a cost function. The true problem (1.1) is

min⁡x∈Θ {f(x):=EP h(x,ω)}.\min_{x\in\Theta}\ \bigl\{ f(x) := \mathbb E_P\, h(x,\omega) \bigr\}.x∈Θmin​ {f(x):=EP​h(x,ω)}.

Let ω1,ω2,…\omega^1,\omega^2,\dotsω1,ω2,… be an i.i.d. sequence of random elements of Ω\OmegaΩ with law PPP, defined on some probability space (S,Q)(S,Q)(S,Q). The approximating problem (1.2) uses the first NNN of them:

min⁡x∈Θ {f^N(x):=N−1∑j=1Nh(x,ωj)}.\min_{x\in\Theta}\ \Bigl\{ \hat f_N(x) := N^{-1}\sum_{j=1}^N h(x,\omega^j) \Bigr\}.x∈Θmin​ {f^​N​(x):=N−1j=1∑N​h(x,ωj)}.

For a function ggg on Rm\mathbb R^mRm write argmin⁡Θg={x∈Θ:g(x)≤g(y) ∀y∈Θ}\operatorname{argmin}_\Theta g = \{x\in\Theta : g(x)\le g(y)\ \forall y\in\Theta\}argminΘ​g={x∈Θ:g(x)≤g(y) ∀y∈Θ}; the optimal set of the true problem is A=argmin⁡ΘfA=\operatorname{argmin}_\Theta fA=argminΘ​f. The directional derivative of ggg at xxx in direction ddd is g′(x,d)=lim⁡t↓0(g(x+td)−g(x))/tg'(x,d)=\lim_{t\downarrow0}(g(x+td)-g(x))/tg′(x,d)=limt↓0​(g(x+td)−g(x))/t; for the cost of a single scenario it is written hω′(x,d)h'_\omega(x,d)hω′​(x,d). The tangent cone TΘ(xˉ)T_\Theta(\bar x)TΘ​(xˉ) to a convex set Θ\ThetaΘ at xˉ∈Θ\bar x\in\Thetaxˉ∈Θ is the closure of {t(x−xˉ):t≥0, x∈Θ}\{t(x-\bar x): t\ge0,\ x\in\Theta\}{t(x−xˉ):t≥0, x∈Θ}.

Assumption (A). The true problem has a unique optimal solution xˉ\bar xxˉ, i.e. A={xˉ}A=\{\bar x\}A={xˉ}, and there is c>0c>0c>0 with

f(x) ≥ f(xˉ)+c ∥x−xˉ∥∀ x∈Θ.(2.2)f(x)\ \ge\ f(\bar x) + c\,\|x-\bar x\| \qquad \forall\,x\in\Theta. \tag{2.2}f(x) ≥ f(xˉ)+c∥x−xˉ∥∀x∈Θ.(2.2)

An optimal solution with this linear growth is a sharp minimum.

A statement holds w.p.1 for NNN large enough if for QQQ-almost every sample path there is N∗N^*N∗, depending on the path, such that it holds for every N≥N∗N\ge N^*N≥N∗.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.1 (p. 5)

Suppose (i) h(⋅,ω)h(\cdot,\omega)h(⋅,ω) is convex for every ω\omegaω; (ii) fff is well defined and finite valued; (iii) Θ\ThetaΘ is closed and convex; (iv) Assumption (A) holds. Then w.p.1 for NNN large enough

argmin⁡x∈Θ f^N(x)={xˉ},\operatorname*{argmin}_{x\in\Theta}\ \hat f_N(x) = \{\bar x\},x∈Θargmin​ f^​N​(x)={xˉ},

that is, the approximating problem has a unique optimal solution x^N\hat x_Nx^N​ and x^N=xˉ\hat x_N=\bar xx^N​=xˉ.

Milestones

  1. (A) ⇔ (2.3) (p. 4): for a convex problem, xˉ\bar xxˉ is a sharp unique minimum iff f′(xˉ,d)>0f'(\bar x,d)>0f′(xˉ,d)>0 for all d∈TΘ(xˉ)∖{0}d\in T_\Theta(\bar x)\setminus\{0\}d∈TΘ​(xˉ)∖{0}.
  2. Uniform positivity (p. 4): (2.3) implies f′(xˉ,d)≥ε∥d∥f'(\bar x,d)\ge\varepsilon\|d\|f′(xˉ,d)≥ε∥d∥ for some ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 and all d∈TΘ(xˉ)d\in T_\Theta(\bar x)d∈TΘ​(xˉ).
  3. Proposition 2.2 (2.5) (p. 5): f′(x,d)=EP{hω′(x,d)}f'(x,d)=\mathbb E_P\{h'_\omega(x,d)\}f′(x,d)=EP​{hω′​(x,d)}.
  4. (2.10) (p. 5): f^N′(x,d)=N−1∑j=1Nhωj′(x,d)\hat f'_N(x,d)=N^{-1}\sum_{j=1}^N h'_{\omega^j}(x,d)f^​N′​(x,d)=N−1∑j=1N​hωj′​(x,d).
  5. Proposition 2.2 (2.6) (p. 5): lim⁡Nsup⁡∥d∥≤1∣f′(x,d)−f^N′(x,d)∣=0\lim_N \sup_{\|d\|\le1}|f'(x,d)-\hat f'_N(x,d)|=0limN​sup∥d∥≤1​∣f′(x,d)−f^​N′​(x,d)∣=0 w.p.1.
  6. Proposition 2.2 (2.7) (p. 5): lim⁡NH(∂f^N(x),∂f(x))=0\lim_N\mathcal H(\partial\hat f_N(x),\partial f(x))=0limN​H(∂f^​N​(x),∂f(x))=0 w.p.1, with H\mathcal HH the Hausdorff distance.
  7. (2.11) (p. 6): w.p.1 for NNN large enough, f^N′(xˉ,d)>0\hat f'_N(\bar x,d)>0f^​N′​(xˉ,d)>0 for all d∈TΘ(xˉ)∩Sm−1d\in T_\Theta(\bar x)\cap S^{m-1}d∈TΘ​(xˉ)∩Sm−1.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2.1 says that for convex stochastic programs with a sharp optimum, SAA is not an estimator with sampling error in the usual sense: almost every sample path eventually produces the true solution itself. This is the qualitative statement behind the paper's main quantitative result (Theorem 3.1, mission 2 of this series), that the probability of not obtaining the exact solution decays like e−βNe^{-\beta N}e−βN. Together they explain why, in two-stage linear programs with finitely many scenarios, modest sample sizes often recover the optimal first-stage decision exactly, a phenomenon the paper documents numerically. The proposition on directional derivatives (Proposition 2.2) is of independent use: it is the almost-sure uniform convergence of first-order information of a sample average, which recurs in the asymptotic analysis of SAA estimators.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. Machine-checked SAA theory is thin: the existing platform material treats uniform convergence of the objective on compact sets, not directional derivatives or exactness at sharp minima. A complete development supplies, on top of Mathlib, the strong law of large numbers applied to directional derivatives of convex integrands, the passage from pointwise to uniform convergence for convex functions, and the characterization of sharp minima by directional derivatives on the tangent cone. Each of these is reusable well beyond this paper.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the step from convergence to exactness. Strong consistency of SAA (x^N→xˉ\hat x_N\to\bar xx^N​→xˉ w.p.1) says nothing about x^N\hat x_Nx^N​ equalling xˉ\bar xxˉ; for a smooth objective it never does. Exactness has to come from a first-order condition at xˉ\bar xxˉ that holds with a margin, and that margin must be transferred to f^N\hat f_Nf^​N​ uniformly over all tangent directions at once, not one direction at a time, since there are uncountably many directions and each carries its own null set. The second difficulty is that f^N\hat f_Nf^​N​ and fff are typically nonsmooth (piecewise linear in the motivating examples), so the first-order objects are one-sided directional derivatives, and differentiation under the integral sign, in its usual smooth form, does not apply to them.

Formalization scope

  • Rm\mathbb R^mRm is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m). The sample is one infinite i.i.d. sequence on a separate probability space (S,Q)(S,Q)(S,Q): each ωj\omega^jωj is measurable with law PPP, and the family is mutually independent. f^N\hat f_Nf^​N​ uses the first NNN terms (0-based in Lean). "W.p.1 for NNN large enough" is ∀ᵐ s ∂Q, ∀ᶠ N in atTop, …; a fresh sample for each NNN is not used.
  • Hypothesis (ii), "fff well defined and finite valued", is encoded as integrability of h(x,⋅)h(x,\cdot)h(x,⋅) for every xxx (a disclosed pin, which includes measurability).
  • fff is the Bochner integral; directional derivatives are one-sided limits (limUnder along t↓0t\downarrow0t↓0), used only for convex finite functions, where the limits exist. Optimal sets are defined directly as argmin sets, without infima.
  • The tangent cone is Mathlib's posTangentConeAt, the cone of limits of cndnc_n d_ncn​dn​ with cn≥0c_n\ge0cn​≥0; for convex Θ\ThetaΘ it is the closure of R+(Θ−xˉ)\mathbb R_+(\Theta-\bar x)R+​(Θ−xˉ). Mathlib's tangentConeAt ℝ, which allows negative scalings and is symmetric, is not the paper's cone and is not used.
  • Supremum limits over the unit ball are stated as uniform convergence on the closed unit ball; the Hausdorff distance is the extended-valued Metric.hausdorffEDist. Subdifferentials use the published definition ShorNonsmooth.Subdiff.subdifferential.
  • Uniqueness in the goal is the set equality argmin⁡Θf^N={xˉ}\operatorname{argmin}_\Theta\hat f_N=\{\bar x\}argminΘ​f^​N​={xˉ}; the weaker "xˉ\bar xxˉ is optimal for (1.2)" is not the theorem. The goal's quantifier order is "almost surely, eventually in NNN"; "for each NNN, almost surely" is a different and false statement.
  • Milestones 1 and 2 are stated for an arbitrary finite convex function, which covers both fff and f^N\hat f_Nf^​N​.

Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone; in particular the convex-analysis lemmas (milestones 1, 2 and 4) need no probability, and (2.5)–(2.6) need only Mathlib's strong law.

Selected references

  • A. Shapiro and T. Homem-de-Mello, On the rate of convergence of optimal solutions of Monte Carlo approximations of stochastic programs, SIAM J. Optim. 11(1):70–86, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623498349541 (the mission cites the authors' preprint, Stochastic Programming E-Print Series).
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970 (Theorem 10.8, uniform convergence of convex functions). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
  • J.-B. Hiriart-Urruty and C. Lemaréchal, Convex Analysis and Minimization Algorithms I, Springer, 1993 (Theorem V.3.3.8, support functions and Hausdorff distance). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02796-7
  • A. Shapiro, D. Dentcheva and A. Ruszczyński, Lectures on Stochastic Programming: Modeling and Theory, SIAM, 2009 (Chapter 5, statistical inference for SAA). https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718751
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Complexity TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Convex Quadratic and Semidefinite Programming Relaxations in Scheduling V: 3-Occurrence Max3Sat L-Reduces to R | rⱼ | Σ Cⱼ with Constants 32 and 1Research Paper

Motivation

The scheduling problem R ∣ rj ∣∑CjR\,|\,r_j\,|\sum C_jR∣rj​∣∑Cj​ asks for a nonpreemptive schedule of jobs on unrelated parallel machines, each job with a machine-dependent processing time and a release date, so that the total completion time is minimal. It is NP-hard, and the question that remains is how well it can be approximated in polynomial time. Positive results include the 2-approximation of Skutella (J. ACM 2001), based on a convex quadratic relaxation. This mission covers the negative side, from §7 of the same paper: the problem has no polynomial-time approximation scheme unless P = NP.

The standard route to such a statement is an L-reduction (Papadimitriou and Yannakakis 1991) from a problem already known to be MaxSNP-hard. MaxSNP-hard problems have no approximation scheme unless P = NP, by the PCP theorem (Arora et al. 1998).

Timeline.

  • 1991: Papadimitriou and Yannakakis define MaxSNP and L-reductions, and show that MAX3SAT with a bounded number of occurrences per variable is MaxSNP-complete.
  • 1998: Hoogeveen, Schuurman and Woeginger prove that R ∣ ∣∑wjCjR\,|\,|\sum w_jC_jR∣∣∑wj​Cj​ and R ∣ rj ∣∑CjR\,|\,r_j\,|\sum C_jR∣rj​∣∑Cj​ are MaxSNP-hard, by a reduction from a MaxSNP-hard variant of 3-dimensional matching.
  • 2001: Skutella (§7, pp. 32–33) gives a shorter reduction from 3-OCCURRENCE MAX3SAT, the variant of MAX3SAT in which every variable occurs at most three times (MaxSNP-hard, see Ausiello et al. 1999, Corollary 8.15).

Setting

An instance III of 3-OCCURRENCE MAX3SAT has nnn variables and mmm clauses. Each clause is a set of one to three literals (a variable xxx or its negation ¬x\neg x¬x), and each variable occurs at most three times in total. A truth assignment ttt gives each variable the value true or false and satisfies a clause when one of the clause's literals is true. #(t)\#(t)#(t) denotes the number of satisfied clauses, and OPTSAT(I)=max⁡t#(t)\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)=\max_t \#(t)OPTSAT​(I)=maxt​#(t).

The scheduling instance R(I)R(I)R(I) has n+mn+mn+m jobs and 2n2n2n machines.

  • Every variable xxx has a true machine and a false machine, and one v-job. The v-job is released at time 000, has processing time 444 on the two machines of xxx, and cannot run anywhere else.
  • Every clause ccc has one c-job, released at time 333, with processing time 000. It may run on the false machine of xxx when xxx occurs in ccc, on the true machine of xxx when ¬x\neg x¬x occurs in ccc, and nowhere else.

A schedule SSS gives every job jjj a machine and a start time Sj≥rjS_j\ge r_jSj​≥rj​, with no two jobs on one machine overlapping. Its value is the total completion time VAL(S)=∑j(Sj+pj)\mathrm{VAL}(S)=\sum_j (S_j+p_j)VAL(S)=∑j​(Sj​+pj​). The truth assignment SAT(S)\mathrm{SAT}(S)SAT(S) sets xxx true exactly when the v-job of xxx runs on the true machine. OPTSCH(R(I))\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}(R(I))OPTSCH​(R(I)) is the minimum of VAL\mathrm{VAL}VAL over feasible schedules.

Formalization targets

Goal: the L-reduction inequalities (Lemma 7.1 b) and the proof of Theorem 7.2, p. 33)

R(I)R(I)R(I) has an optimal schedule S0S_0S0​, and

VAL(S0)=4n+4m−OPTSAT(I)≤32 OPTSAT(I),OPTSAT(I)−#(SAT(S))≤VAL(S)−VAL(S0)\mathrm{VAL}(S_0)=4n+4m-\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)\le 32\,\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I),\qquad \mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)-\#(\mathrm{SAT}(S))\le\mathrm{VAL}(S)-\mathrm{VAL}(S_0)VAL(S0​)=4n+4m−OPTSAT​(I)≤32OPTSAT​(I),OPTSAT​(I)−#(SAT(S))≤VAL(S)−VAL(S0​)

for every feasible schedule SSS. These are the two conditions of an L-reduction, with constants α=32\alpha=32α=32 and β=1\beta=1β=1.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1 a) (p. 32): #(SAT(S))≥4n+4m−VAL(S)\#(\mathrm{SAT}(S))\ge 4n+4m-\mathrm{VAL}(S)#(SAT(S))≥4n+4m−VAL(S) for every feasible SSS.
  2. Lemma 7.1 b) (p. 33): OPTSCH(R(I))=4n+4m−OPTSAT(I)\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}(R(I))=4n+4m-\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)OPTSCH​(R(I))=4n+4m−OPTSAT​(I).
  3. The two counting facts of the proof of Theorem 7.2: OPTSAT(I)≥m/2\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)\ge m/2OPTSAT​(I)≥m/2 and n≤3mn\le 3mn≤3m.
  4. The first L-reduction condition: OPTSCH(R(I))≤12m+4m≤32 OPTSAT(I)\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}(R(I))\le 12m+4m\le 32\,\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)OPTSCH​(R(I))≤12m+4m≤32OPTSAT​(I).
  5. The second L-reduction condition: OPTSAT(I)−#(SAT(S))≤VAL(S)−OPTSCH(R(I))\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}(I)-\#(\mathrm{SAT}(S))\le\mathrm{VAL}(S)-\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}(R(I))OPTSAT​(I)−#(SAT(S))≤VAL(S)−OPTSCH​(R(I)).

Significance

The result. The two inequalities are what an L-reduction requires. Combined with the MaxSNP-hardness of 3-OCCURRENCE MAX3SAT, they show that R ∣ rj ∣∑CjR\,|\,r_j\,|\sum C_jR∣rj​∣∑Cj​ is MaxSNP-hard (Theorem 7.2, due to Hoogeveen, Schuurman and Woeginger), and therefore has no polynomial-time approximation scheme unless P = NP. Together with the constant-factor algorithms of the earlier sections of the paper, this places the problem in APX but outside PTAS. The identity of Lemma 7.1 b) is exact, so the reduction transfers solutions in both directions with no loss beyond the affine shift k↦4n+4m−kk\mapsto 4n+4m-kk↦4n+4m−k.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, on paper, by both the 1998 and the 2001 reductions. As far as the platform's corpus shows, neither is machine-checked. This mission produces a checked version of the combinatorial core of Skutella's reduction: the exact relation between optimal schedules of R(I)R(I)R(I) and optimal truth assignments of III, and the two L-reduction constants. A Lean model of 3-OCCURRENCE MAX3SAT and of nonpreemptive schedules with release dates and machine eligibility is a by-product.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is the paper's intuition: given a truth assignment, a c-job can start at time 333 without conflicting with a v-job exactly when its clause is satisfied. That is not enough for Lemma 7.1 a), which concerns every feasible schedule. In an arbitrary schedule a v-job may be delayed so that c-jobs of unsatisfied clauses run before it on its machine, and v-jobs and c-jobs may start at arbitrary real times. To compare such a schedule with a normalized one, its total completion time has to be bounded from below by 4n+4m−#(SAT(S))4n+4m-\#(\mathrm{SAT}(S))4n+4m−#(SAT(S)). The bound depends on the occurrence limit of three, which caps how many c-jobs can share a machine with a given v-job; without that limit Lemma 7.1 a) is false. Lemma 7.1 b) also needs the existence of an optimal schedule, which the paper takes for granted.

Formalization scope

Variables and clauses are Fin n and Fin m; here nnn and mmm count variables and clauses, not jobs and machines as in the rest of the paper. A literal is a pair (x, b) with b = true for xxx and b = false for ¬x\neg x¬x, and a clause is a Finset of literals. Jobs are Fin n ⊕ Fin m and machines Fin n × Bool. Infinite processing times are encoded by an eligibility relation. Start times are real numbers, and VAL\mathrm{VAL}VAL is a real number; #\## and OPTSAT\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}OPTSAT​ are natural numbers cast to the reals, so no natural-number subtraction occurs. OPTSCH\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}OPTSCH​ is never a primitive: statements assert, or assume, a feasible schedule that is no worse than every feasible schedule.

Two conventions are fixed that the page leaves implicit:

  • Every clause has between one and three literals. An empty clause would leave its c-job with no machine, so R(I)R(I)R(I) would have no schedule, and "at least m/2m/2m/2" would fail.
  • Every variable occurs at least once. The bound n≤3mn\le 3mn≤3m, and with it the constant 323232, needs this: a variable that occurs nowhere adds 444 to OPTSCH\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SCH}}OPTSCH​ and nothing to OPTSAT\mathrm{OPT}_{\mathrm{SAT}}OPTSAT​.

Zero-length jobs need a precise non-overlap rule. Two distinct jobs on one machine must satisfy Sj+pj≤SkS_j+p_j\le S_kSj​+pj​≤Sk​ or Sk+pk≤SjS_k+p_k\le S_jSk​+pk​≤Sj​. Under this rule a c-job at time 333 conflicts with a v-job running over [0,4)[0,4)[0,4), but several c-jobs may share a start time. Reading jobs as half-open intervals [Sj,Sj+pj)[S_j,S_j+p_j)[Sj​,Sj​+pj​) would let a zero-length c-job sit inside a v-job, so every clause would count as satisfied: that formalization is ruled out.

Not formalized: MaxSNP, MaxSNP-hardness and Theorem 7.2's statement itself; the definition of an L-reduction as a pair of polynomial-time maps; the polynomial running time of RRR and SAT\mathrm{SAT}SAT; the weighted variant for R ∣ ∣∑wjCjR\,|\,|\sum w_jC_jR∣∣∑wj​Cj​ in the last paragraph of §7, which the paper does not prove. Contributions are welcome on the counting facts, on a normal form for schedules of R(I)R(I)R(I) (v-jobs at time 000, c-jobs at time 333 or 444), and on the existence of optimal schedules.

Selected references

  • M. Skutella, Convex quadratic and semidefinite programming relaxations in scheduling, J. ACM 48(2), 206–242, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1145/375827.375840
  • J. A. Hoogeveen, P. Schuurman, G. J. Woeginger, Non-approximability results for scheduling problems with minsum criteria, IPCO 1998, LNCS 1412, 353–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-69346-7_27
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, M. Yannakakis, Optimization, approximation, and complexity classes, J. Comput. System Sci. 43(3), 425–440, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0000(91)90023-X
  • G. Ausiello, P. Crescenzi, G. Gambosi, V. Kann, A. Marchetti-Spaccamela, M. Protasi, Complexity and Approximation, Springer, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-58412-1
  • S. Arora, C. Lund, R. Motwani, M. Sudan, M. Szegedy, Proof verification and the hardness of approximation problems, J. ACM 45(3), 501–555, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1145/278298.278306
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AnalysisOperations ResearchStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

The Power of Two Choices in Randomized Load Balancing II: T_d(λ)/log T_1(λ) → 1/log d as λ → 1⁻, an Exponential Improvement over One ChoiceResearch Paper

Motivation

A dispatcher assigns each arriving job to one of nnn servers. Sending it to a uniformly random server is simple but produces long queues near capacity; sending it to the globally shortest queue requires full state information. The power of ddd choices sits between the two: each job samples ddd servers at random and joins the shortest of them. Mitzenmacher's analysis of this supermarket model (IEEE TPDS 12(10), 2001) together with the balls-into-bins result of Azar, Broder, Karlin and Upfal (SIAM J. Comput. 29(1), 1999), established that a second random choice changes the behaviour of the system qualitatively. The idea underlies load balancers, hashing schemes and distributed schedulers.

This mission formalizes the paper's quantitative statement of that improvement in heavy traffic, the regime where the arrival rate per server λ\lambdaλ approaches the service rate 111.

Setting

Customers arrive as a Poisson stream of rate λn\lambda nλn with 0≤λ<10\le\lambda<10≤λ<1, service times are exponential with mean 111, and each customer joins the shortest of ddd queues sampled uniformly with replacement. As n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞ the fraction of queues with at least iii customers follows a deterministic limiting system with fixed point πi=λ(di−1)/(d−1)\pi_i=\lambda^{(d^i-1)/(d-1)}πi​=λ(di−1)/(d−1). Corollary 2 of the paper shows that, for d≥2d\ge2d≥2, the expected time a customer spends in that limiting system converges to

Td(λ)=∑i=1∞λdi−dd−1.T_d(\lambda)=\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}\lambda^{\frac{d^i-d}{d-1}} .Td​(λ)=i=1∑∞​λd−1di−d​.

With a single choice the system is nnn independent M/M/1 queues, and the expected time is

T1(λ)=11−λ.T_1(\lambda)=\frac{1}{1-\lambda}.T1​(λ)=1−λ1​.

This mission takes these two formulas as its definitions; the limiting system itself and the convergence to Td(λ)T_d(\lambda)Td​(λ) are the subject of the companion mission (part I). The auxiliary function of Lemma 3 is

Fd(λ)=∑i=0∞λdilog⁡11−λ.F_d(\lambda)=\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{\infty}\lambda^{d^i}}{\log\frac{1}{1-\lambda}} .Fd​(λ)=log1−λ1​∑i=0∞​λdi​.

Throughout, d≥2d\ge2d≥2 is an integer and logarithms are natural.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4, limit clause (p. 1099)

lim⁡λ→1−Td(λ)log⁡T1(λ)=1log⁡d(d≥2).\lim_{\lambda\to1^-}\frac{T_d(\lambda)}{\log T_1(\lambda)}=\frac{1}{\log d}\qquad(d\ge2).λ→1−lim​logT1​(λ)Td​(λ)​=logd1​(d≥2).

Milestones, in the order the paper's argument uses them

  1. The rewriting of TdT_dTd​ (proof of Theorem 4): with λ′=λ1/(d−1)\lambda'=\lambda^{1/(d-1)}λ′=λ1/(d−1) and 0<λ<10<\lambda<10<λ<1,
Td(λ)=∑i=1∞(λ′)diλd/(d−1).T_d(\lambda)=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{\infty}(\lambda')^{d^i}}{\lambda^{d/(d-1)}} .Td​(λ)=λd/(d−1)∑i=1∞​(λ′)di​.
  1. The product identity (proof of Lemma 3): for 0≤λ<10\le\lambda<10≤λ<1,
∏i=0∞(1+λdi+λ2di+⋯+λ(d−1)di)=11−λ.\prod_{i=0}^{\infty}\bigl(1+\lambda^{d^i}+\lambda^{2d^i}+\dots+\lambda^{(d-1)d^i}\bigr)=\frac{1}{1-\lambda}.i=0∏∞​(1+λdi+λ2di+⋯+λ(d−1)di)=1−λ1​.
  1. Lemma 3:
lim⁡λ→1−Fd(λ)=1log⁡d.\lim_{\lambda\to1^-}F_d(\lambda)=\frac{1}{\log d}.λ→1−lim​Fd​(λ)=logd1​.

The goal is a statement about the shape of the growth, not a constant: it pins the leading behaviour Td(λ)∼log⁡d11−λT_d(\lambda)\sim\log_d\frac{1}{1-\lambda}Td​(λ)∼logd​1−λ1​.

Significance

Theorem 4 makes "exponential improvement" precise. With one choice the expected time grows like 11−λ\frac1{1-\lambda}1−λ1​ as the load approaches capacity; with d≥2d\ge2d≥2 choices it grows like log⁡11−λlog⁡d\frac{\log\frac1{1-\lambda}}{\log d}logdlog1−λ1​​. It also quantifies the diminishing return of extra choices: going from d=2d=2d=2 to ddd only divides the leading term by log⁡2d\log_2 dlog2​d, while going from one choice to two changes its order. These constants are the benchmark against which later heavy-traffic analyses of join-the-shortest-of-ddd policies are compared.

The result is proved in the paper (the limit clause; see Difficulty for the other clause). No machine-checked version is known to exist. The formalization yields a self-contained Lean development of the lacunary series ∑ixdi\sum_i x^{d^i}∑i​xdi near x=1x=1x=1 and of the base-ddd product identity, both of which are classical analytic facts with uses outside queueing (lacunary power series, digit expansions).

Difficulty

The obvious approach compares ∑iλdi\sum_i\lambda^{d^i}∑i​λdi with an integral, but the terms are not monotone images of a smooth function of a continuous index in a way that controls the error uniformly as λ→1−\lambda\to1^-λ→1−: the number of terms close to 111 grows like log⁡d11−λ\log_d\frac{1}{1-\lambda}logd​1−λ1​ and each of them contributes nearly 111, so the error terms are of the same order as the quantity being measured. The difficulty is to obtain matching upper and lower bounds with constants tending to 1/log⁡d1/\log d1/logd, uniformly as λ→1−\lambda\to1^-λ→1−. Passing from Lemma 3 to Theorem 4 additionally requires controlling the change of variable λ↦λ1/(d−1)\lambda\mapsto\lambda^{1/(d-1)}λ↦λ1/(d−1) inside the logarithm.

Theorem 4 as printed also contains a first clause, Td(λ)≤cdlog⁡T1(λ)T_d(\lambda)\le c_d\log T_1(\lambda)Td​(λ)≤cd​logT1​(λ) for all λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1]. It is false as printed near λ=0\lambda=0λ=0: Td(λ)≥1T_d(\lambda)\ge1Td​(λ)≥1 while log⁡T1(λ)→0\log T_1(\lambda)\to0logT1​(λ)→0. The paper does not prove it, and this mission does not pose it.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. λ\lambdaλ is a real number (lam), ddd a natural number with the hypothesis 2≤d2\le d2≤d on every statement. TdT_dTd​, T1T_1T1​ and FdF_dFd​ are real-valued definitions in one definition file.
  • Exponents. TdT_dTd​'s iii-th term uses the natural-number exponent ∑1≤k<idk=di−dd−1\sum_{1\le k<i}d^k=\frac{d^i-d}{d-1}∑1≤k<i​dk=d−1di−d​, so its i=1i=1i=1 term is λ0=1\lambda^0=1λ0=1. The series runs over i∈Ni\in\mathbb Ni∈N with the i=0i=0i=0 term equal to 000. λ′=λ1/(d−1)\lambda'=\lambda^{1/(d-1)}λ′=λ1/(d−1) and λd/(d−1)\lambda^{d/(d-1)}λd/(d−1) are real powers.
  • Series and junk values. All series are real tsums; they converge for 0≤λ<10\le\lambda<10≤λ<1. Outside that range Lean's conventions (a divergent series sums to 000, x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0, log⁡x=0\log x=0logx=0 for x≤0x\le0x≤0) produce meaningless values, so every statement either restricts λ\lambdaλ to [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) or (0,1)(0,1)(0,1) or is a limit along λ<1\lambda<1λ<1.
  • Limits. "λ→1−\lambda\to1^-λ→1−" is the one-sided filter 𝓝[<] 1; the limit 1/log⁡d1/\log d1/logd uses Real.log.
  • Infinite product. The product identity is stated with HasProd (unconditional convergence of finite subproducts), which for factors ≥1\ge1≥1 is the same as convergence of the partial products.
  • Not trivializable. Because every limit is one-sided at 111 and the denominators log⁡T1(λ)\log T_1(\lambda)logT1​(λ) and log⁡11−λ\log\frac1{1-\lambda}log1−λ1​ are positive there, no statement can be satisfied by Lean's junk values at λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1 or at λ=0\lambda=0λ=0; the summability of the rewritten series is asserted explicitly.
  • Infrastructure. Useful general lemmas: asymptotics of ∑ixdi\sum_i x^{d^i}∑i​xdi as x→1−x\to1^-x→1−, products of finite geometric sums, change of variables in one-sided limits. These are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any of the milestones, or of alternative proofs of Lemma 3, are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. Mitzenmacher, The Power of Two Choices in Randomized Load Balancing, IEEE Transactions on Parallel and Distributed Systems 12(10), 2001, pp. 1094–1104. https://doi.org/10.1109/71.963420
  • Y. Azar, A. Z. Broder, A. R. Karlin, E. Upfal, Balanced Allocations, SIAM Journal on Computing 29(1), 1999, pp. 180–200. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539795288490
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Machine LearningOptimizationStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Additive Logistic Regression: A Statistical View of Boosting 3: Population LogitBoost Takes Newton Steps on the Binomial Log-LikelihoodResearch Paper

Motivation

Boosting combines many weak classifiers into a strong one by refitting, round after round, to a reweighted version of the training data. Freund and Schapire's AdaBoost was introduced as a procedure, with guarantees on the training error, and for several years it was not clear what statistical model it fitted. Friedman, Hastie and Tibshirani (Ann. Statist. 28 (2000) 337–407) answered this by showing that boosting is stagewise additive modelling: each round adds one term to an additive function F(x)=∑mfm(x)F(x) = \sum_m f_m(x)F(x)=∑m​fm​(x) so as to improve a population criterion.

Section 4.3 of that paper takes the step from interpretation to design. If boosting is stagewise fitting of an additive logistic model, one can choose the criterion directly: the Bernoulli log-likelihood. The resulting procedure, LogitBoost (Algorithm 3), fits at each round a weighted least-squares regression to a working response, exactly as iteratively reweighted least squares fits a logistic regression. Result 3 states that this is no accident: in the population, LogitBoost's update is a Newton step on the expected log-likelihood. The same Newton reading reappears in gradient boosting with logistic loss, where each terminal node of a tree takes one Newton step (Friedman 2001).

Timeline:

  • 1997: Freund and Schapire, AdaBoost (J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 55).
  • 1999: Schapire and Singer, Real AdaBoost with confidence-rated predictions (Mach. Learn. 37).
  • 2000: Friedman, Hastie and Tibshirani, the statistical view; LogitBoost and Result 3.
  • 2001: Friedman, gradient boosting machines (Ann. Statist. 29).

Setting

Let XXX be a measurable space of features and let ν\nuν be a probability measure on X×{0,1}X\times\{0,1\}X×{0,1}, the joint law of a feature xxx and a 0/1 response y∗y^*y∗. Write E(⋅∣x)E(\cdot\mid x)E(⋅∣x) for the conditional expectation given xxx, an integral against the regular conditional distribution of y∗y^*y∗ given xxx.

A current fit is a function F:X→RF : X\to\mathbb RF:X→R. The symmetric logistic model (30) represents P(y∗=1∣x)P(y^*=1\mid x)P(y∗=1∣x) by

p(x)=eF(x)eF(x)+e−F(x).p(x) = \frac{e^{F(x)}}{e^{F(x)}+e^{-F(x)}}.p(x)=eF(x)+e−F(x)eF(x)​.

For an update f(x)f(x)f(x), the expected log-likelihood (31) is

E l(F+f)=E[2y∗(F(x)+f(x))−log⁡(1+e2(F(x)+f(x)))],E\,l(F+f) = E\Big[2y^*\big(F(x)+f(x)\big) - \log\big(1+e^{2(F(x)+f(x))}\big)\Big],El(F+f)=E[2y∗(F(x)+f(x))−log(1+e2(F(x)+f(x)))],

whose integrand is the Bernoulli log-likelihood y∗log⁡p+(1−y∗)log⁡(1−p)y^*\log p + (1-y^*)\log(1-p)y∗logp+(1−y∗)log(1−p) of y∗y^*y∗ under the model.

For a positive weight www, the weighted conditional expectation is Ew(g∣x)=E(wg∣x)/E(w∣x)E_w(g\mid x) = E(wg\mid x)/E(w\mid x)Ew​(g∣x)=E(wg∣x)/E(w∣x). LogitBoost (Algorithm 3), population version, computes the working response and weight

z=y∗−p(x)p(x)(1−p(x)),w(x)=p(x)(1−p(x)),z = \frac{y^*-p(x)}{p(x)(1-p(x))},\qquad w(x) = p(x)(1-p(x)),z=p(x)(1−p(x))y∗−p(x)​,w(x)=p(x)(1−p(x)),

fits f(x)=Ew(z∣x)f(x) = E_w(z\mid x)f(x)=Ew​(z∣x) (the population weighted least-squares regression of zzz on xxx), and updates F(x)←F(x)+12f(x)F(x)\leftarrow F(x)+\tfrac12 f(x)F(x)←F(x)+21​f(x).

Formalization targets

Goal: Result 3

Fix xxx and let ℓx(t)=E[ 2y∗(F(x)+t)−log⁡(1+e2(F(x)+t))∣x]\ell_x(t) = E[\,2y^*(F(x)+t) - \log(1+e^{2(F(x)+t)})\mid x]ℓx​(t)=E[2y∗(F(x)+t)−log(1+e2(F(x)+t))∣x]. Then ℓx\ell_xℓx​ has first derivative s(x)s(x)s(x) and second derivative H(x)H(x)H(x) at t=0t=0t=0,

s(x)=2E(y∗−p(x)∣x),H(x)=−4E(p(x)(1−p(x))∣x),s(x) = 2E\big(y^*-p(x)\mid x\big),\qquad H(x) = -4E\big(p(x)(1-p(x))\mid x\big),s(x)=2E(y∗−p(x)∣x),H(x)=−4E(p(x)(1−p(x))∣x),

H(x)≠0H(x)\neq0H(x)=0, and the population LogitBoost update equals the Newton update:

F(x)+12Ew(z∣x)=F(x)−H(x)−1s(x).F(x) + \tfrac12E_w(z\mid x) = F(x) - H(x)^{-1}s(x).F(x)+21​Ew​(z∣x)=F(x)−H(x)−1s(x).

Milestones

  1. (31): the integrand of E l(F+f)E\,l(F+f)El(F+f) is the Bernoulli log-likelihood of the symmetric logistic model.
  2. (32): the first derivative s(x)s(x)s(x).
  3. (33): the second derivative H(x)H(x)H(x).
  4. (34)–(35): F(x)−H(x)−1s(x)=F(x)+12E(y∗−p(x)∣x)E(p(x)(1−p(x))∣x)=F(x)+12Ew(y∗−p(x)p(x)(1−p(x)) ∣ x)F(x) - H(x)^{-1}s(x) = F(x) + \frac12 \frac{E(y^*-p(x)\mid x)}{E(p(x)(1-p(x))\mid x)} = F(x)+\frac12E_w\big(\frac{y^*-p(x)}{p(x)(1-p(x))}\,\big|\,x\big)F(x)−H(x)−1s(x)=F(x)+21​E(p(x)(1−p(x))∣x)E(y∗−p(x)∣x)​=F(x)+21​Ew​(p(x)(1−p(x))y∗−p(x)​​x).
  5. (36): the Newton update solves min⁡f(x)Ew(x)(F(x)+12z−(F(x)+f(x)))2\min_{f(x)} E_{w(x)}\big(F(x)+\frac12 z - (F(x)+f(x))\big)^2minf(x)​Ew(x)​(F(x)+21​z−(F(x)+f(x)))2.

Significance

The result. Result 3 explains what LogitBoost computes: a stagewise Newton–Raphson ascent of the expected Bernoulli log-likelihood, one coordinate F(x)F(x)F(x) at a time. It makes the working response and the weights of Algorithm 3 the score and curvature of the likelihood, and reduces each round to a weighted least-squares problem (36) that any regression method can solve.

Formalizing it. The result is proved on the page by a short calculation, and no machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a formal account of the population algorithm on an arbitrary joint law, with conditional expectations taken through a regular conditional distribution, the derivatives stated with differentiability, and the Newton step identified exactly, including the constants 222, −4-4−4 and 12\tfrac1221​ that the symmetric parametrization forces.

Difficulty

The algebra is short; the formal content is in keeping every object honest. The derivatives are of a conditional expectation in a parameter, so differentiation must pass through the integral against the conditional law. The second derivative needs the first derivative as a function of ttt, not only its value at 000. The Newton step divides by H(x)H(x)H(x), which must be shown nonzero from 0<p(x)<10<p(x)<10<p(x)<1 rather than assumed. A tempting shortcut, replacing the conditional expectation of the log-likelihood by its closed form in a free probability parameter, removes the joint law from the statement and is ruled out.

Formalization scope

  • Labels are Bool, with y∗(true)=1y^*(\texttt{true}) = 1y∗(true)=1 and y∗(false)=0y^*(\texttt{false})=0y∗(false)=0. The joint law is a probability measure ν on X × Bool; E(⋅∣x)E(\cdot\mid x)E(⋅∣x) is the integral against Mathlib's ν.condKernel x. Every statement is for every xxx, conditional on xxx as in the Derivation; because the label space is finite, no integrability or measurability hypotheses are needed.
  • The symmetric logistic is written exactly as (30), et/(et+e−t)e^{t}/(e^{t}+e^{-t})et/(et+e−t), not as 1/(1+e−t)1/(1+e^{-t})1/(1+e−t), which differs by a factor 222 in ttt and would change every constant.
  • The conditional log-likelihood is defined as an integral against the conditional law, not by its closed form with a free parameter.
  • Derivatives are stated with HasDerivAt, never with deriv, which returns 000 at non-differentiable points; H(x)≠0H(x)\neq0H(x)=0 is a conclusion, so the division in the Newton step cannot silently return 000.
  • The weighted conditional expectation takes its weight as an explicit argument; here it is p(x)(1−p(x))p(x)(1-p(x))p(x)(1−p(x)).
  • In (36) the page writes Ew(x)E_{w(x)}Ew(x)​ without "∣x\mid x∣x"; it is read as the conditional weighted expectation, since the Derivation conditions on xxx throughout.
  • Out of scope: the data version of Algorithm 3 (regression trees, the zmax⁡z_{\max}zmax​ threshold and the weight floor of pp. 352–353), which are implementation choices, and the multiclass algorithm (§5).

Contributions welcome: differentiation of finite conditional expectations in a parameter, and derivative facts for the symmetric logistic, both reusable across the other missions of this series.

Selected references

  • J. Friedman, T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, Additive logistic regression: a statistical view of boosting, Ann. Statist. 28(2):337–407, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1016218223
  • Y. Freund, R. E. Schapire, A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line learning and an application to boosting, J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 55(1):119–139, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1006/jcss.1997.1504
  • R. E. Schapire, Y. Singer, Improved boosting algorithms using confidence-rated predictions, Mach. Learn. 37(3):297–336, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1007614523901
  • J. Friedman, Greedy function approximation: a gradient boosting machine, Ann. Statist. 29(5):1189–1232, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1013203451
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Harmonic AnalysisProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography 1: A Discrete Gaussian on L + u Plus Continuous Gaussian Noise ν_s Is Within Statistical Distance 4ε of ν_t, t = √(r² + s²)Research Paper

Motivation

The learning with errors (LWE) problem underlies most of post-quantum public-key cryptography. Its hardness rests on Regev's reduction from worst-case lattice problems to LWE (Regev, J. ACM 2009). The reduction is iterative: it repeatedly turns samples of a discrete Gaussian on a lattice into samples of a narrower one. Its classical step, Lemma 3.11, needs the following fact. Adding continuous Gaussian noise to a discrete Gaussian sample gives, up to a small statistical distance, a continuous Gaussian. That fact is Claim 3.9 of the paper. Through Corollary 3.10 it turns a lattice point plus noise into an LWE-type sample with a periodic Gaussian error.

The tool behind it is the smoothing parameter of Micciancio and Regev (SIAM J. Comput. 2007). Above this width a discrete Gaussian on a lattice behaves like a continuous one. Claims of this type have since become standard in lattice-based cryptography: discrete Gaussian sampling, trapdoors, and the convolution theorems of Peikert (CRYPTO 2010).

This mission formalizes Claim 3.9 from the published J. ACM article (Article 34, 2009). The paper's main theorem, Theorem 3.1, is a quantum reduction about efficient algorithms. It is outside this series of missions.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with the Euclidean norm and Lebesgue measure. For s>0s > 0s>0 the Gaussian function is ρs(x)=exp⁡(−π∥x/s∥2)\rho_s(x) = \exp(-\pi\|x/s\|^2)ρs​(x)=exp(−π∥x/s∥2), its shift is ρs,c(x)=ρs(x−c)\rho_{s,c}(x) = \rho_s(x - c)ρs,c​(x)=ρs​(x−c), and νs=ρs/sn\nu_s = \rho_s/s^nνs​=ρs​/sn is a probability density (Eqs. (4)–(5)). For a countable set AAA, ρs(A)=∑x∈Aρs(x)\rho_s(A) = \sum_{x \in A}\rho_s(x)ρs​(A)=∑x∈A​ρs​(x).

A lattice L⊂RnL \subset \mathbb{R}^nL⊂Rn is the set of integer combinations of nnn linearly independent vectors. Its dual is L∗={y:⟨x,y⟩∈Z ∀x∈L}L^* = \{y : \langle x, y\rangle \in \mathbb{Z}\ \forall x \in L\}L∗={y:⟨x,y⟩∈Z ∀x∈L}, and det⁡(L∗)=1/det⁡(L)\det(L^*) = 1/\det(L)det(L∗)=1/det(L), where det⁡(L)\det(L)det(L) is the volume of a fundamental parallelepiped. For u∈Rnu \in \mathbb{R}^nu∈Rn and r>0r > 0r>0, the discrete Gaussian DL+u,rD_{L+u,r}DL+u,r​ is the distribution on the coset L+uL + uL+u with mass ρr(y)/ρr(L+u)\rho_r(y)/\rho_r(L+u)ρr​(y)/ρr​(L+u) at yyy (Eq. (6)).

For ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 the smoothing parameter ηϵ(L)\eta_\epsilon(L)ηϵ​(L) is the smallest sss with ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ\rho_{1/s}(L^*\setminus\{0\}) \le \epsilonρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ (Definition 2.10).

The statistical distance of two densities is Δ(φ1,φ2)=∫Rn∣φ1−φ2∣\Delta(\varphi_1,\varphi_2) = \int_{\mathbb{R}^n}|\varphi_1 - \varphi_2|Δ(φ1​,φ2​)=∫Rn​∣φ1​−φ2​∣, with no factor 12\tfrac1221​, so it ranges in [0,2][0,2][0,2].

Let r,s>0r, s > 0r,s>0 and t=r2+s2t = \sqrt{r^2+s^2}t=r2+s2​. The distribution YYY is obtained by sampling y∼DL+u,ry \sim D_{L+u,r}y∼DL+u,r​ and adding independent noise with density νs\nu_sνs​. Its density is

Y(x)=∑y∈L+uDL+u,r(y) νs(x−y).Y(x) = \sum_{y \in L+u} D_{L+u,r}(y)\,\nu_s(x - y).Y(x)=y∈L+u∑​DL+u,r​(y)νs​(x−y).

Formalization targets

Goal: Claim 3.9 (p. 34:25)

If rs/t≥ηϵ(L)rs/t \ge \eta_\epsilon(L)rs/t≥ηϵ​(L) for some 0<ϵ<120 < \epsilon < \tfrac120<ϵ<21​, then

Δ(Y,νt)≤4ϵ.\Delta(Y, \nu_t) \le 4\epsilon .Δ(Y,νt​)≤4ϵ.

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Lemma 2.14 (Poisson summation), already proved on the platform and used here as a reference: f(L)=det⁡(L∗)f^(L∗)f(L) = \det(L^*)\hat f(L^*)f(L)=det(L∗)f^​(L∗).
  2. The remark after Definition 2.10 (p. 34:19). The map s↦ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})s \mapsto \rho_{1/s}(L^*\setminus\{0\})s↦ρ1/s​(L∗∖{0}) is continuous and strictly decreasing on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), with limits ∞\infty∞ at 000 and 000 at ∞\infty∞, and ηϵ(L)\eta_\epsilon(L)ηϵ​(L) is its inverse.
  3. The Fourier transform of a shifted Gaussian (p. 34:25), ρσ,c^(w)=e−2πi⟨c,w⟩σnρ1/σ(w)\widehat{\rho_{\sigma,c}}(w) = e^{-2\pi i\langle c,w\rangle}\sigma^n\rho_{1/\sigma}(w)ρσ,c​​(w)=e−2πi⟨c,w⟩σnρ1/σ​(w).
  4. Claim 3.8 (p. 34:24). If r≥ηϵ(L)r \ge \eta_\epsilon(L)r≥ηϵ​(L), then ρr(L+c)∈rndet⁡(L∗)(1±ϵ)\rho_r(L+c) \in r^n\det(L^*)(1\pm\epsilon)ρr​(L+c)∈rndet(L∗)(1±ϵ).
  5. Eq. (11) (p. 34:25), Y(x)=s−nρt(x) ρrs/t,(r/t)2x−u(L)/ρr,−u(L)Y(x) = s^{-n}\rho_t(x)\,\rho_{rs/t,(r/t)^2x-u}(L)/\rho_{r,-u}(L)Y(x)=s−nρt​(x)ρrs/t,(r/t)2x−u​(L)/ρr,−u​(L).
  6. The pointwise bound (p. 34:26), ∣Y(x)−ρt(x)/tn∣≤ρt(x)/tn⋅4ϵ|Y(x) - \rho_t(x)/t^n| \le \rho_t(x)/t^n\cdot 4\epsilon∣Y(x)−ρt​(x)/tn∣≤ρt​(x)/tn⋅4ϵ.

A supporting item states the bridge used in both proofs: if s≥ηϵ(L)s \ge \eta_\epsilon(L)s≥ηϵ​(L), then ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ\rho_{1/s}(L^*\setminus\{0\}) \le \epsilonρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ.

Significance

Claim 3.9 is what makes Regev's iterative step classical. A discrete Gaussian sample, blurred by continuous noise, cannot be told apart from a continuous Gaussian of the combined width, except with probability 2ϵ2\epsilon2ϵ. Corollary 3.10 projects this onto a direction zzz and reduces it modulo 1 to obtain LWE samples with periodic Gaussian error Ψβ\Psi_\betaΨβ​. Without it, the reduction from lattice problems to LWE has no way to produce its error distribution. Claim 3.8, a milestone here, says that above the smoothing parameter the discrete Gaussian measure is almost invariant under shifts. It is the basic estimate of the theory.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them is formalized. Lean's Mathlib has lattices, their covolume, dual submodules and the Gaussian Fourier transform. The platform has the Poisson summation formula for lattices. This mission adds the smoothing parameter, discrete Gaussians on cosets, and the first machine-checked convolution theorem for discrete and continuous Gaussians. Later work, such as Corollary 3.10 or Peikert's general convolution theorem, can build on it.

Difficulty

Neither density is a finite object. YYY is an infinite sum over a coset of a lattice, normalized by another infinite sum. A direct term-by-term comparison of Y(x)Y(x)Y(x) with νt(x)\nu_t(x)νt​(x) fails: the sum defining Y(x)Y(x)Y(x) is a Gaussian sum over a shifted lattice, and its value genuinely varies with the position of (r/t)2x−u(r/t)^2x - u(r/t)2x−u relative to LLL; for narrow Gaussians the variation is of order one. The claim is that this oscillation is uniformly small, with a relative error that depends only on ϵ\epsilonϵ, not on nnn, xxx or uuu. Two ratios of lattice sums must be bounded at once, uniformly in xxx. The constant 4ϵ4\epsilon4ϵ uses ϵ<12\epsilon < \tfrac12ϵ<21​ in an essential way, because (1+ϵ)/(1−ϵ)(1+\epsilon)/(1-\epsilon)(1+ϵ)/(1−ϵ) must stay below 1+4ϵ1+4\epsilon1+4ϵ.

The smoothing parameter is defined as a least element. That the least element exists, i.e. that the infimum is attained, is itself a statement about continuity and strict monotonicity of an infinite sum in its width.

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n).
  • A lattice is a Submodule ℤ with [DiscreteTopology L] [IsZLattice ℝ L].
  • L∗L^*L∗ is LinearMap.BilinForm.dualSubmodule (innerₗ _) L.
  • det⁡(L∗)\det(L^*)det(L∗) is written det⁡(L)−1\det(L)^{-1}det(L)−1 with det⁡(L)\det(L)det(L) = ZLattice.covolume L.
  • Lattice sums are real tsums. They are genuinely summable, so no summability hypothesis is added.
  • ηϵ(L)\eta_\epsilon(L)ηϵ​(L) is the real infimum of {s>0:ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ}\{s > 0 : \rho_{1/s}(L^*\setminus\{0\}) \le \epsilon\}{s>0:ρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ}. Its attainment is milestone 2, not part of the definition.
  • YYY is defined by its density, the formula on the first line of the proof.
  • Δ\DeltaΔ is a lower Lebesgue integral with values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] and no 12\tfrac1221​. A Bochner integral of a non-integrable difference would be 000 and make the bound free; this form rules that trivialization out.

Added hypotheses, each disclosed in the item.

  • ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0 in Claim 3.9 and the pointwise bound (Claim 3.8 prints it). Definition 2.10 defines ηϵ\eta_\epsilonηϵ​ only for ϵ>0\epsilon > 0ϵ>0, and for ϵ≤0\epsilon \le 0ϵ≤0 the defining set is empty, so the hypothesis ηϵ(L)≤rs/t\eta_\epsilon(L) \le rs/tηϵ​(L)≤rs/t would be vacuous.
  • r>0r > 0r>0 in Claim 3.8, where ρr\rho_rρr​ requires it, and likewise s>0s > 0s>0 in the supporting item "s≥ηϵ(L)⇒ρ1/s(L∗∖{0})≤ϵs \ge \eta_\epsilon(L) \Rightarrow \rho_{1/s}(L^*\setminus\{0\}) \le \epsilons≥ηϵ​(L)⇒ρ1/s​(L∗∖{0})≤ϵ".
  • n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 in the smoothing remark, which fails for n=0n = 0n=0, where L∗∖{0}L^*\setminus\{0\}L∗∖{0} is empty.

Other conventions.

  • Lemma 2.14 is printed "for any function", with technical conditions omitted (p. 34:20). The referenced platform theorem is the version for Schwartz functions in translated form; every Gaussian used here is Schwartz.
  • Eq. (11) is formalized as the equality of its first and fifth lines, the real-valued completing-the-square identity. The Fourier-side lines are not stated.
  • The Fourier transform is Mathlib's 𝓕, ∫h(x)e−2πi⟨x,w⟩dx\int h(x)e^{-2\pi i\langle x,w\rangle}dx∫h(x)e−2πi⟨x,w⟩dx, as on p. 34:20.

Reusable beyond this mission: the Gaussian, coset-sum and smoothing-parameter definitions, Claim 3.8, and the shifted Fourier transform. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, and so are proofs of the summability and Schwartz facts for Gaussians on lattices that every milestone needs.

Selected references

  • O. Regev, On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography, Journal of the ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1568318.1568324
  • D. Micciancio and O. Regev, Worst-Case to Average-Case Reductions Based on Gaussian Measures, SIAM Journal on Computing 37(1), 2007. https://doi.org/10.1137/S0097539705447360
  • C. Peikert, An Efficient and Parallel Gaussian Sampler for Lattices, CRYPTO 2010, LNCS 6223. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14623-7_5
9 thms3 active usersReviewed
Operations ResearchProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

Revenue Management Without Forecasting or Optimization: An Adaptive Algorithm for Determining Airline Seat Protection Levels: Fill-Event Updates Converge to the Optimal Protection LevelsResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines sell seats on a single flight in several fare classes. Discount classes book first, so the carrier must decide how many seats to protect for later, higher-paying passengers. The classical answer, from Littlewood's rule for two classes to the nested optimality conditions of Brumelle and McGill (1993), computes optimal protection levels from a forecast of the demand distribution of each class. Those forecasts must be built from censored booking data, which is where most of the practical difficulty lies.

van Ryzin and McGill (2000) observed that the optimality conditions themselves can drive an adaptive rule. After each flight one only records whether a fill event occurred (whether demand reached each protection level) and moves the levels by a stochastic-approximation step. No forecast and no optimization is needed. Their Theorem 1 asserts that this rule converges almost surely to the optimal protection levels, with an explicit mean-square rate. It is one of the standard references for model-free revenue management. The convergence proof combines Robbins–Monro theory, the Robbins–Siegmund supermartingale lemma and an induction over fare classes.

Setting

There are k+1k+1k+1 fare classes with fares f1>f2>⋯>fk+1>0f_1 > f_2 > \cdots > f_{k+1} > 0f1​>f2​>⋯>fk+1​>0 and discount ratios ri+1=fi+1/f1r_{i+1} = f_{i+1}/f_1ri+1​=fi+1​/f1​. On a flight the class demands X1,…,Xk+1X_1, \dots, X_{k+1}X1​,…,Xk+1​ are independent, nonnegative and continuously distributed. Successive flights X1,X2,…X^1, X^2, \dotsX1,X2,… are independent with the same law.

A protection vector is θ=(θ1,…,θk)\theta = (\theta_1, \dots, \theta_k)θ=(θ1​,…,θk​). The fill events are

Ai(θ,X)={X1>θ1, X1+X2>θ2, …, X1+⋯+Xi>θi},i=1,…,k.A_i(\theta, X) = \{X_1 > \theta_1,\ X_1 + X_2 > \theta_2,\ \dots,\ X_1 + \cdots + X_i > \theta_i\}, \qquad i = 1, \dots, k.Ai​(θ,X)={X1​>θ1​, X1​+X2​>θ2​, …, X1​+⋯+Xi​>θi​},i=1,…,k.

A vector θ∗\theta^*θ∗ is characterised by the optimality condition (3), P(Ai(θ∗,X))=ri+1P(A_i(\theta^*, X)) = r_{i+1}P(Ai​(θ∗,X))=ri+1​ for i=1,…,ki = 1, \dots, ki=1,…,k. The adjustments are Hi(θ,X)=ri+1−1(Ai(θ,X))H_i(\theta, X) = r_{i+1} - \mathbf 1(A_i(\theta, X))Hi​(θ,X)=ri+1​−1(Ai​(θ,X)), and their means are hi(θ)=ri+1−P(Ai(θ,X))h_i(\theta) = r_{i+1} - P(A_i(\theta, X))hi​(θ)=ri+1​−P(Ai​(θ,X)). From an arbitrary θ1\theta^1θ1 the algorithm updates

θn+1=θn−γnH(θn,Xn),γn=An+B, A>0, B≥0.\theta^{n+1} = \theta^n - \gamma_n H(\theta^n, X^n), \qquad \gamma_n = \frac{A}{n + B},\ A > 0,\ B \ge 0.θn+1=θn−γn​H(θn,Xn),γn​=n+BA​, A>0, B≥0.

The interim protection levels pi(θ)=max⁡{θj:1≤j≤i}p_i(\theta) = \max\{\theta_j : 1 \le j \le i\}pi​(θ)=max{θj​:1≤j≤i} are what the airline actually uses to control bookings. The updates themselves monitor Ai(θn,Xn)A_i(\theta^n, X^n)Ai​(θn,Xn).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 765)

Assume:

  • A1: every XiX_iXi​ has bounded support.
  • A2 (windowed): for each R>0R > 0R>0 there is δR>0\delta_R > 0δR​>0 with (θi−θi∗) hi(θi,θi−1∗,…,θ1∗)≥δR∣θi−θi∗∣2(\theta_i - \theta^*_i)\,h_i(\theta_i, \theta^*_{i-1}, \dots, \theta^*_1) \ge \delta_R|\theta_i - \theta^*_i|^2(θi​−θi∗​)hi​(θi​,θi−1∗​,…,θ1∗​)≥δR​∣θi​−θi∗​∣2 whenever ∣θi−θi∗∣≤R|\theta_i - \theta^*_i| \le R∣θi​−θi∗​∣≤R.
  • A3: the distribution functions of the partial sums X1+⋯+XiX_1 + \cdots + X_iX1​+⋯+Xi​ are Lipschitz.

Then for i=1,…,ki = 1, \dots, ki=1,…,k,

θin→θi∗ a.s.,pi(θ∗)=θi∗,\theta^n_i \to \theta^*_i \ \text{a.s.}, \qquad p_i(\theta^*) = \theta^*_i,θin​→θi∗​ a.s.,pi​(θ∗)=θi∗​,

and there are β>0\beta > 0β>0 and CCC with

E∣θin−θi∗∣2≤C γnβ/2i−1.E|\theta^n_i - \theta^*_i|^2 \le C\,\gamma_n^{\beta/2^{i-1}}.E∣θin​−θi∗​∣2≤Cγnβ/2i−1​.

The exponent is left existential, as in the paper, so any improvement of the rate constant still proves the goal.

Milestones

The milestones follow the paper's own proof, in attack order:

  • the base case i=1i = 1i=1 (p. 765);
  • the Lipschitz bound on hi+1h_{i+1}hi+1​ (p. 766);
  • Lemma 3, boundedness of the iterates (p. 764);
  • the almost-supermartingale inequality (12) (p. 766);
  • Lemma 1 (p. 764);
  • the a.s. summability of γn∣θin−θi∗∣\gamma_n|\theta^n_i - \theta^*_i|γn​∣θin​−θi∗​∣ (p. 766);
  • Lemma 2, Robbins–Siegmund (p. 764);
  • the induction step for (9) (p. 766);
  • Lemma 4, the rate recursion (p. 764).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that the nested optimality conditions of Brumelle and McGill can be reached by observing binary fill events alone. It also says that the limit is automatically ordered, θ1∗≤⋯≤θk∗\theta^*_1 \le \cdots \le \theta^*_kθ1∗​≤⋯≤θk∗​, so the interim levels coincide with the limit. The algorithm is distribution-free and needs neither demand forecasts nor uncensoring, which is why it is used in practice and as a baseline for later data-driven and learning-based revenue management.

The theorem is proved in the paper. As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a vector Robbins–Monro argument with coupled coordinates, the Robbins–Siegmund lemma, and an explicit polynomial rate. Two of the milestones are general probability facts reusable far beyond this mission: Lemma 1, and Robbins–Siegmund, which no platform item states yet. The formalization also corrects the record on two printed slips, described under Formalization scope.

Difficulty

Coordinate i+1i+1i+1 is not a Robbins–Monro process by itself. Its fill event Ai+1(θ,X)A_{i+1}(\theta, X)Ai+1​(θ,X) depends on all of θ1,…,θi+1\theta_1, \dots, \theta_{i+1}θ1​,…,θi+1​, so the drift of θi+1n\theta^n_{i+1}θi+1n​ is perturbed by the errors of the lower coordinates. Applying a scalar convergence theorem coordinate by coordinate fails at this point. The perturbation has to be bounded via the Lipschitz assumption A3 and shown to be summable along the path, which uses the mean-square rate already established for class iii. The rate and the almost-sure convergence must therefore be carried through the induction together. The exponent halves at each class. A second difficulty is that A2 is only usable on a bounded set, so boundedness of the iterates (Lemma 3) has to come first and must be uniform.

Formalization scope

Classes are indexed from 111 in Lean (N\mathbb NN-indexed vectors whose index 000 and indices above k+1k+1k+1 are never read). A flight's demand vector has the product law ⨂iνi\bigotimes_i \nu_i⨂i​νi​, and the sample path has the countable product of copies of it. Lean's iterate … n is the paper's θn+1\theta^{n+1}θn+1, so the rate pairs it with γn+1\gamma_{n+1}γn+1​. Continuity of a demand law is "every singleton is null". Expectations are Bochner integrals, and integrability is part of each rate conclusion. The fill event reuses the published NestedSeatAlloc.ProbCond.nestEvent.

Pinned and corrected statements:

  • A2 as printed is unsatisfiable. It asks for one δ\deltaδ valid for all θi\theta_iθi​. Since ∣hi∣≤1|h_i| \le 1∣hi​∣≤1, the inequality fails once ∣θi−θi∗∣>1/δ|\theta_i - \theta^*_i| > 1/\delta∣θi​−θi∗​∣>1/δ, so the printed Theorem 1 is vacuously true. The mission uses the windowed A2 above. That is what the proof applies to bounded iterates, and what the paper's sufficient condition (a density bounded below near θ∗\theta^*θ∗) yields. A formalization with the printed A2, or with any other hypothesis no instance satisfies, is ruled out.
  • The base case. The page claims the rate "for all 0<β<10 < \beta < 10<β<1". That is false in general. The milestone states "for some β>0\beta > 0β>0", which is all Theorem 1 uses.
  • Integrability. Lemma 2 assumes each ZnZ_nZn​ integrable, so that the conditional expectation is genuine. Lemma 3's "bounded (a.s.)" is read as a bound uniform in nnn.
  • Standing assumptions. Nonnegative demands and positive fares are added where the argument uses them.

Not posed: §4's modifications (projection onto the capacity, randomized integer levels, booking lead times) and the simulations of §5.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the general lemmas (Lemma 1, Robbins–Siegmund) stated for arbitrary probability spaces, measurability facts for the recursion, and the elementary Lemma 4.

Selected references

  • G. van Ryzin and J. McGill, Revenue Management Without Forecasting or Optimization: An Adaptive Algorithm for Determining Airline Seat Protection Levels, Management Science 46(6), 760–775, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.6.760.11936
  • S. L. Brumelle and J. I. McGill, Airline Seat Allocation with Multiple Nested Fare Classes, Operations Research 41(1), 127–137, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.41.1.127
  • H. Robbins and D. Siegmund, A convergence theorem for non negative almost supermartingales and some applications, in Optimizing Methods in Statistics, Academic Press, 233–257, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-604550-5.50015-8
  • A. Benveniste, M. Métivier and P. Priouret, Adaptive Algorithms and Stochastic Approximations, Springer, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-75894-2
  • E. Lukacs, Stochastic Convergence, 2nd ed., Academic Press, 1975.
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AnalysisProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography 3: The Periodic Gaussians Ψ_α and Ψ_β Are Within Statistical Distance 9(β/α − 1) When 0 < α < β ≤ 2αResearch Paper

Motivation

The Learning with Errors (LWE) problem, introduced by Regev in On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography (J. ACM 56(6), 2009, Article 34; doi:10.1145/1568318.1568324), asks to recover a secret vector s∈Zpns \in \mathbb{Z}_p^ns∈Zpn​ from noisy inner products ⟨a,s⟩/p+e mod 1\langle a, s\rangle/p + e \bmod 1⟨a,s⟩/p+emod1. The noise eee is drawn from a periodic normal distribution Ψβ\Psi_\betaΨβ​ on the circle T=R/Z\mathbb{T} = \mathbb{R}/\mathbb{Z}T=R/Z: a centred normal variable reduced modulo 111. LWE has since become the main hardness assumption of lattice-based cryptography, including the post-quantum standards built on it.

Regev's reductions repeatedly need to compare Ψα\Psi_\alphaΨα​ and Ψβ\Psi_\betaΨβ​ for nearby parameters, for instance when the noise parameter is known only up to a small relative error. Claim 2.2 of the paper (p. 34:16) quantifies this: the two periodic normal distributions are close in statistical distance, linearly in the relative change β/α−1\beta/\alpha - 1β/α−1. This mission formalizes Claim 2.2 and the steps of its proof. The source is the published J. ACM article; the paper's main theorem, a quantum reduction from worst-case lattice problems to LWE, is outside this series.

Setting

Identify T=R/Z\mathbb{T} = \mathbb{R}/\mathbb{Z}T=R/Z with the segment [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) with addition modulo 111. For β>0\beta > 0β>0 the normal density with mean 000 and standard deviation β/2π\beta/\sqrt{2\pi}β/2π​ is

νβ(x)=1βexp⁡(−π(xβ)2),x∈R,\nu_\beta(x) = \frac{1}{\beta}\exp\Bigl(-\pi\Bigl(\frac{x}{\beta}\Bigr)^2\Bigr), \qquad x \in \mathbb{R},νβ​(x)=β1​exp(−π(βx​)2),x∈R,

(Eq. (5) in dimension one), and the periodic normal density (Eq. (7)) is its periodization

Ψβ(r)=∑k=−∞∞1βexp⁡(−π(r−kβ)2),r∈[0,1),\Psi_\beta(r) = \sum_{k=-\infty}^{\infty} \frac{1}{\beta}\exp\Bigl(-\pi\Bigl(\frac{r-k}{\beta}\Bigr)^2\Bigr), \qquad r \in [0,1),Ψβ​(r)=k=−∞∑∞​β1​exp(−π(βr−k​)2),r∈[0,1),

the density of a νβ\nu_\betaνβ​-distributed variable reduced modulo 111.

The statistical distance of two densities φ1,φ2\varphi_1, \varphi_2φ1​,φ2​ (p. 34:14) is

Δ(φ1,φ2)=∫∣φ1−φ2∣,\Delta(\varphi_1, \varphi_2) = \int |\varphi_1 - \varphi_2|,Δ(φ1​,φ2​)=∫∣φ1​−φ2​∣,

the integral taken over R\mathbb{R}R for densities on the line and over [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) for densities on T\mathbb{T}T. The paper uses this normalization without a factor 12\tfrac1221​, so that Δ\DeltaΔ ranges in [0,2][0,2][0,2] on probability densities. In Lean these objects are RegevLWE.PeriodicGauss.nu, Psi, statDist and statDistT.

Formalization targets

Goal: Claim 2.2

For any 0<α<β≤2α0 < \alpha < \beta \le 2\alpha0<α<β≤2α,

Δ(Ψα,Ψβ)≤9(βα−1).\Delta(\Psi_\alpha, \Psi_\beta) \le 9\Bigl(\frac{\beta}{\alpha} - 1\Bigr).Δ(Ψα​,Ψβ​)≤9(αβ​−1).

The hypotheses and the constant 999 are exactly as printed.

Milestones

  1. The bound on the line (proof of Claim 2.2, first sentence). For 0<α<β≤2α0 < \alpha < \beta \le 2\alpha0<α<β≤2α,
Δ(να,νβ)≤9(βα−1).\Delta(\nu_\alpha, \nu_\beta) \le 9\Bigl(\frac{\beta}{\alpha} - 1\Bigr).Δ(να​,νβ​)≤9(αβ​−1).
  1. Reduction modulo 1 does not increase Δ\DeltaΔ (p. 34:15, used on p. 34:16): for integrable φ1,φ2\varphi_1, \varphi_2φ1​,φ2​ on R\mathbb{R}R, the periodizations φ~i(r)=∑kφi(r−k)\tilde\varphi_i(r) = \sum_k \varphi_i(r-k)φ~​i​(r)=∑k​φi​(r−k) satisfy Δ(φ~1,φ~2)≤Δ(φ1,φ2)\Delta(\tilde\varphi_1, \tilde\varphi_2) \le \Delta(\varphi_1, \varphi_2)Δ(φ~​1​,φ~​2​)≤Δ(φ1​,φ2​).
  2. The three displayed steps of the proof after normalizing to α=1\alpha = 1α=1, β=1+ϵ\beta = 1 + \epsilonβ=1+ϵ, 0<ϵ≤10 < \epsilon \le 10<ϵ≤1: the first display (a triangle-inequality split and an exact evaluation), the pointwise bound
∣e−π(1−1/(1+ϵ)2)x2−1∣≤π(1−1/(1+ϵ)2)x2≤2πϵx2,\bigl|e^{-\pi(1-1/(1+\epsilon)^2)x^2} - 1\bigr| \le \pi\bigl(1 - 1/(1+\epsilon)^2\bigr)x^2 \le 2\pi\epsilon x^2,​e−π(1−1/(1+ϵ)2)x2−1​≤π(1−1/(1+ϵ)2)x2≤2πϵx2,

and the final evaluation

ϵ+2πϵ∫Rx2e−πx2/(1+ϵ)2 dx=ϵ+ϵ(1+ϵ)3≤9ϵ.\epsilon + 2\pi\epsilon\int_{\mathbb{R}} x^2 e^{-\pi x^2/(1+\epsilon)^2}\,dx = \epsilon + \epsilon(1+\epsilon)^3 \le 9\epsilon.ϵ+2πϵ∫R​x2e−πx2/(1+ϵ)2dx=ϵ+ϵ(1+ϵ)3≤9ϵ.

Significance

Claim 2.2 is a stability statement for the LWE error distribution. It lets an algorithm that works for one noise parameter be applied to a nearby one at a controlled cost in statistical distance, which is how Regev's reductions tolerate an approximately known parameter. It also states a quantitative fact about wrapped normal distributions, which appear outside cryptography, for example in directional statistics.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof is known to this mission. Formalizing it produces a reusable one-dimensional toolkit: the L1L^1L1 distance between two centred normal densities, the second moment of a Gaussian in Regev's normalization, and the contraction of L1L^1L1 distance under periodization. Each of these is a building block for formalizing the rest of the paper's analysis of Gaussian noise.

Difficulty

The arithmetic is elementary; the work is in the analysis. The statement on T\mathbb{T}T involves infinite series inside an integral, and the passage from the line to the circle requires exchanging a sum over Z\mathbb{Z}Z with an integral and controlling the series almost everywhere. A direct attack on Ψα−Ψβ\Psi_\alpha - \Psi_\betaΨα​−Ψβ​ termwise on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) does not by itself produce a bound in terms of β/α−1\beta/\alpha - 1β/α−1; the comparison has to be made on the line first. On the line, the scaling to α=1\alpha = 1α=1 is a change of variables in a Lebesgue integral, and the evaluation of ∫x2e−πx2/σ2dx=σ3/(2π)\int x^2 e^{-\pi x^2/\sigma^2}dx = \sigma^3/(2\pi)∫x2e−πx2/σ2dx=σ3/(2π) requires Gaussian moment identities in the paper's normalization rather than Mathlib's.

Formalization scope

  • Reals and densities. Everything is one-dimensional over R\mathbb{R}R; distributions are represented by their densities, not by measures. T\mathbb{T}T is the interval Set.Ico 0 1 with Lebesgue measure; Ψβ\Psi_\betaΨβ​ is a real tsum over k∈Zk \in \mathbb{Z}k∈Z, which converges absolutely for β≠0\beta \ne 0β=0.
  • Statistical distance. Δ\DeltaΔ is a lower Lebesgue integral ∫⁻ ENNReal.ofReal |φ₁ - φ₂| valued in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with no factor 12\tfrac1221​, as on p. 34:14. Bounds are compared through ENNReal.ofReal. A Bochner integral would be 000 on a non-integrable difference and would make any upper bound trivially true; the extended-valued integral rules this out.
  • Added hypotheses. None on the goal or on the line bound. The modulo-1 milestone assumes φ1,φ2\varphi_1, \varphi_2φ1​,φ2​ integrable (the paper states the data-processing fact for random variables, whose densities are integrable); only the "modulo 1" instance used in the proof is stated, not the general inequality for arbitrary randomized functions. The pointwise bound is stated for every ϵ≥0\epsilon \ge 0ϵ≥0, a harmless generalization of the proof's range 0<ϵ≤10 < \epsilon \le 10<ϵ≤1. The first display is stated as its three component facts (inequality, evaluation =ϵ= \epsilon=ϵ, and the rewriting of the integrand), which together give the printed chain.
  • No trivialization. The goal is Claim 2.2 on T\mathbb{T}T, not the bound on the line, and neither side can collapse to a junk value: the left side is an extended nonnegative integral and the right side is positive under the hypotheses.
  • Welcome contributions. Gaussian moment lemmas in the normalization e−πx2/s2e^{-\pi x^2/s^2}e−πx2/s2, the periodization contraction for general integrable functions, and a measure-level statement identifying Ψβ\Psi_\betaΨβ​ with the pushforward of νβ\nu_\betaνβ​ under reduction modulo 111.

Selected references

  • O. Regev, On Lattices, Learning with Errors, Random Linear Codes, and Cryptography, Journal of the ACM 56(6), Article 34, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1145/1568318.1568324
  • D. Micciancio and S. Goldwasser, Complexity of Lattice Problems: A Cryptographic Perspective, Kluwer, 2002 (cited on p. 34:15 for the data-processing property of statistical distance). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4615-0897-7
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Quantitative Stability in Stochastic Programming: The Method of Probability Metrics 1: Solution Sets Move by at Most Ψ of the Minimal Information DistanceResearch Paper

Motivation

A stochastic program minimizes an expected cost under expected-value constraints, and the expectation is taken with respect to a probability distribution μ\muμ of the random data. In applications μ\muμ is rarely known: it is estimated from samples, replaced by a finite scenario tree, or chosen from a parametric family. Whether the optimal value and the optimal decisions of the approximate problem are close to those of the true problem therefore decides whether the approximation can be trusted. Quantitative stability asks for explicit bounds on the change of optimal values and solution sets in terms of a distance between μ\muμ and its perturbation ν\nuν.

S. T. Rachev and W. Römisch (Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Math. Oper. Res. 27(4), 2002; this mission follows the authors' preprint) organize this question around a single probability distance, built directly from the integrands of the problem. Their general results (Section 2) are then specialized to two-stage linear and mixed-integer programs, to chance constraints, to empirical approximations, and to a portfolio problem. This mission covers the general part: Proposition 2.1 and Theorems 2.2 and 2.3.

Setting

Let X⊆RmX\subseteq\mathbb R^mX⊆Rm be a nonempty closed set, Ξ⊆Rs\Xi\subseteq\mathbb R^sΞ⊆Rs a closed set, and fj:Ξ×Rm→R‾f_j:\Xi\times\mathbb R^m\to\overline{\mathbb R}fj​:Ξ×Rm→R, j=0,…,dj=0,\dots,dj=0,…,d, normal integrands: each epigraph {(x,r):fj(ξ,x)≤r}\{(x,r):f_j(\xi,x)\le r\}{(x,r):fj​(ξ,x)≤r} is closed and the epigraphical mapping ξ↦epi⁡fj(ξ,⋅)\xi\mapsto\operatorname{epi} f_j(\xi,\cdot)ξ↦epifj​(ξ,⋅) is measurable. For a Borel probability measure ν\nuν on Ξ\XiΞ the problem is

min⁡{∫Ξf0(ξ,x) ν(dξ): x∈X, ∫Ξfj(ξ,x) ν(dξ)≤0, j=1,…,d},\min\Big\{\int_\Xi f_0(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi):\ x\in X,\ \int_\Xi f_j(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi)\le0,\ j=1,\dots,d\Big\},min{∫Ξ​f0​(ξ,x)ν(dξ): x∈X, ∫Ξ​fj​(ξ,x)ν(dξ)≤0, j=1,…,d},

with feasible set M(ν)M(\nu)M(ν), optimal value v(ν)v(\nu)v(ν) and solution set S(ν)S(\nu)S(ν); μ\muμ is the original measure.

For a nonempty set U⊆Rm\mathcal U\subseteq\mathbb R^mU⊆Rm, the localized problem restricts xxx to X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU, with feasible set MU(ν)M_{\mathcal U}(\nu)MU​(ν), value vU(ν)v_{\mathcal U}(\nu)vU​(ν) and solutions SU(ν)S_{\mathcal U}(\nu)SU​(ν). The admissible measures PFU\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}PFU​​ are those under which ∫inf⁡x∈X,∥x∥≤rfj(ξ,x)ν(dξ)>−∞\int\inf_{x\in X,\|x\|\le r}f_j(\xi,x)\nu(d\xi)>-\infty∫infx∈X,∥x∥≤r​fj​(ξ,x)ν(dξ)>−∞ for every r>0r>0r>0 and sup⁡x∈X∩cl⁡U∫fj(ξ,x)ν(dξ)<∞\sup_{x\in X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U}\int f_j(\xi,x)\nu(d\xi)<\inftysupx∈X∩clU​∫fj​(ξ,x)ν(dξ)<∞. The minimal information distance is

dFU(μ,ν)=sup⁡x∈X∩cl⁡U max⁡j=0,…,d∣∫Ξfj(ξ,x) μ(dξ)−∫Ξfj(ξ,x) ν(dξ)∣.d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)=\sup_{x\in X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U}\ \max_{j=0,\dots,d}\Big|\int_\Xi f_j(\xi,x)\,\mu(d\xi)-\int_\Xi f_j(\xi,x)\,\nu(d\xi)\Big|.dFU​​(μ,ν)=x∈X∩clUsup​ j=0,…,dmax​​∫Ξ​fj​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−∫Ξ​fj​(ξ,x)ν(dξ)​.

The constraints are metrically regular at (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0) if there are a≥0a\ge0a≥0, ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0 with d(x,My(μ))≤amax⁡jmax⁡{0,∫fj(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−yj}d(x,M_y(\mu))\le a\max_j\max\{0,\int f_j(\xi,x)\mu(d\xi)-y_j\}d(x,My​(μ))≤amaxj​max{0,∫fj​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−yj​} for x∈Xx\in Xx∈X near xˉ\bar xxˉ and small y∈Rdy\in\mathbb R^dy∈Rd, where My(μ)M_y(\mu)My​(μ) is the feasible set with right-hand sides yyy. A nonempty set is a CLM set (complete local minimizing set) with respect to an open U\mathcal UU if it equals SU(ν)S_{\mathcal U}(\nu)SU​(ν) and lies in U\mathcal UU. The growth function is ψ(τ)=inf⁡{∫f0(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈MU(μ)}\psi(\tau)=\inf\{\int f_0(\xi,x)\mu(d\xi)-v(\mu):d(x,S(\mu))\ge\tau,\ x\in M_{\mathcal U}(\mu)\}ψ(τ)=inf{∫f0​(ξ,x)μ(dξ)−v(μ):d(x,S(μ))≥τ, x∈MU​(μ)}, with ψ−1(t)=sup⁡{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t}\psi^{-1}(t)=\sup\{\tau\ge0:\psi(\tau)\le t\}ψ−1(t)=sup{τ≥0:ψ(τ)≤t} and Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(η)\Psi(\eta)=\eta+\psi^{-1}(\eta)Ψ(η)=η+ψ−1(η).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.3, δ-local form

Under the assumptions of Theorem 2.2 — μ∈PFU\mu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}μ∈PFU​​; S(μ)≠∅S(\mu)\ne\emptysetS(μ)=∅ and U\mathcal UU an open bounded neighbourhood of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ); if d≥1d\ge1d≥1, x↦∫f0(ξ,x)μ(dξ)x\mapsto\int f_0(\xi,x)\mu(d\xi)x↦∫f0​(ξ,x)μ(dξ) Lipschitz on X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU; metric regularity at every (xˉ,0)(\bar x,0)(xˉ,0), xˉ∈S(μ)\bar x\in S(\mu)xˉ∈S(μ) — there are L^≥1\hat L\ge1L^≥1 and δ>0\delta>0δ>0 with

∅≠SU(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(L^ dFU(μ,ν))Bfor all ν∈PFU, dFU(μ,ν)<δ.\emptyset\ne S_{\mathcal U}(\nu)\subseteq S(\mu)+\Psi\big(\hat L\,d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)\big)\mathbb B\qquad\text{for all }\nu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}},\ d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)<\delta.∅=SU​(ν)⊆S(μ)+Ψ(L^dFU​​(μ,ν))Bfor all ν∈PFU​​, dFU​​(μ,ν)<δ.

The constants are existential: the goal fixes the shape of the estimate, not its constants.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 2.1: (x,ν)↦∫fj(ξ,x)ν(dξ)(x,\nu)\mapsto\int f_j(\xi,x)\nu(d\xi)(x,ν)↦∫fj​(ξ,x)ν(dξ) is lower semicontinuous on (X∩cl⁡U)×(PFU,dFU)(X\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal U)\times(\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}},d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}})(X∩clU)×(PFU​​,dFU​​), and ν↦MU(ν)\nu\mapsto M_{\mathcal U}(\nu)ν↦MU​(ν) has a closed graph.
  2. Display (5) and its converse: near xˉ∈S(μ)\bar x\in S(\mu)xˉ∈S(μ), MU(μ)M_{\mathcal U}(\mu)MU​(μ) and MU(ν)M_{\mathcal U}(\nu)MU​(ν) lie within a dFU(μ,ν)a\,d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)adFU​​(μ,ν) of each other.
  3. Theorem 2.2: Berge upper semicontinuity of SUS_{\mathcal U}SU​ at μ\muμ, the Lipschitz estimate ∣v(μ)−vU(ν)∣≤L dFU(μ,ν)|v(\mu)-v_{\mathcal U}(\nu)|\le L\,d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)∣v(μ)−vU​(ν)∣≤LdFU​​(μ,ν), and the CLM property, for ν\nuν near μ\muμ; for d=0d=0d=0, the estimate with L=1L=1L=1 for all ν\nuν.
  4. Theorem 2.3 for d=0d=0d=0, for every ν∈PFU\nu\in\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}ν∈PFU​​, as printed.

Significance

Theorem 2.2 shows that the distance dFUd_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}dFU​​ carries exactly the information about μ\muμ that the problem uses: any probability metric that dominates it inherits the Lipschitz estimate of optimal values. This is the mechanism by which the paper derives stability with respect to Fortet–Mourier metrics for two-stage programs, with respect to discrepancies for mixed-integer and chance-constrained programs, and convergence rates for empirical approximations via empirical-process bounds. Theorem 2.3 adds the solution sets: their deviation is controlled by Ψ\PsiΨ, which is determined by the growth of the objective near S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ); quadratic growth yields Hölder continuity with rate 12\tfrac1221​ (Remark 2.4).

The results are proved on paper. No machine-checked version of these stability theorems, of metric regularity for expected-value constraints, or of the minimal information distance exists on the platform. The formalization also settles the exact quantifier structure of Theorem 2.3: its printed form ("for each ν\nuν") is true only for d=0d=0d=0, and the mission states the δ-local form that the proof establishes.

Difficulty

The obvious argument compares the two problems pointwise in xxx: the integrals differ by at most dFU(μ,ν)d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}(\mu,\nu)dFU​​(μ,ν), so the optimal values should too. This works without constraints, but with d≥1d\ge1d≥1 the feasible sets themselves move, and a point feasible for μ\muμ need not be feasible for ν\nuν. Controlling this displacement needs metric regularity of the constraint system, which is only local, around each point of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ); passing from local to uniform constants requires compactness of S(μ)S(\mu)S(μ) and a covering argument. A second difficulty is extended-real analysis: the integrands take the value +∞+\infty+∞, lower semicontinuity must come from Fatou's lemma under the integrability conditions defining PFU\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}PFU​​, and the existence of localized solutions depends on this lower semicontinuity on the compact set X∩cl⁡UX\cap\operatorname{cl}\mathcal UX∩clU.

Formalization scope

Rm\mathbb R^mRm and Rs\mathbb R^sRs are EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin m), EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin s); the paper never fixes its norm, and every statement has existential constants, so the Euclidean norm is a faithful instance. Measures are Borel probability measures on the subtype Ξ\XiΞ. Integrals of extended-real integrands use the published DupacovaWets.Consistency.expect (+∞+\infty+∞ when ∫f+=∞\int f^+=\infty∫f+=∞). The integrands are indexed by Fin (d+1), with index 000 the objective. Values vvv, vUv_{\mathcal U}vU​ and ψ\psiψ are infima in R‾\overline{\mathbb R}R (+∞+\infty+∞ on empty sets; the paper's "min" in ψ\psiψ is read as an infimum); dFUd_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}dFU​​, ψ−1\psi^{-1}ψ−1 and Ψ\PsiΨ take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]; distances to sets are extended distances (infinite to the empty set). Lower semicontinuity and closed graphs in Proposition 2.1 are stated sequentially, which is equivalent in the extended pseudometric space (PFU,dFU)(\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}},d_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}})(PFU​​,dFU​​). The balls B(xˉ,εˉ)B(\bar x,\bar\varepsilon)B(xˉ,εˉ) in (5) are closed balls.

Standing assumptions carried by every statement: XXX nonempty and closed, Ξ\XiΞ closed, all fjf_jfj​ normal integrands, and measures in PFU\mathcal P_{\mathcal F_{\mathcal U}}PFU​​. Every value estimate asserts that both optimal values are finite, so no bound holds through an ∞−∞\infty-\infty∞−∞ convention, and the distance to an empty feasible set is +∞+\infty+∞, so metric regularity cannot hold vacuously. The one deliberate deviation from the page is the δ in the goal, explained above.

A complete development needs Fatou's lemma for extended-real integrands bounded below by an integrable function, measurability of infima of normal integrands, and Berge's stability theorem for parametric programs. The first two are reusable for every stochastic-programming mission on the platform. Contributions of these lemmas as separate theorems are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. T. Rachev, W. Römisch, Quantitative stability in stochastic programming: The method of probability metrics, Math. Oper. Res. 27(4) (2002), 792–818. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.27.4.792.304
  • R. T. Rockafellar, R. J.-B. Wets, Variational Analysis, Springer, 1998 (normal integrands, Ch. 14; metric regularity, Ch. 9). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-02431-3
  • B. Bank, J. Guddat, D. Klatte, B. Kummer, K. Tammer, Non-Linear Parametric Optimization, Akademie-Verlag, Berlin, 1982 (Berge stability, Thm. 4.2.1).
  • D. Klatte, A note on quantitative stability results in nonlinear optimization, in: Proceedings 19. Jahrestagung Mathematische Optimierung, Seminarbericht Nr. 90, Humboldt-Universität Berlin, 1987, 77–86 (the proof pattern of Theorem 2.2).
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models IV: Raising the Payoff Scale from λ₂ to λ₁ > λ₂ Strictly Raises the Expected Profit of a Logit Decision MakerResearch Paper

Motivation

A standard way to coordinate a supply chain is to align incentives: contracts are written so that the retailer's profit is a fixed fraction λ\lambdaλ of the whole chain's profit. With buy-back terms b=(1−λ)pb=(1-\lambda)pb=(1−λ)p and wholesale price w=(1−λ)p+λcw=(1-\lambda)p+\lambda cw=(1−λ)p+λc, for instance, the retailer's profit is λπS(x)\lambda\pi_S(x)λπS​(x), where πS\pi_SπS​ is the chain's newsvendor profit. A perfectly rational retailer maximising λπS\lambda\pi_SλπS​ picks the same order as a central planner maximising πS\pi_SπS​, so the chain is coordinated (Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, 2003). Laboratory subjects working under such contracts nevertheless fail to reach the coordinated outcome (Katok and Wu, Contracting in Supply Chains: A Laboratory Investigation, Management Science 2009).

Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, MSOM 10(4), 2008 gives a model-based explanation. A boundedly rational decision maker chooses better options more often, but not always the best. The choice probabilities depend on the actual size of the payoffs, not only on their ranking, so scaling the payoff by λ\lambdaλ changes behaviour. This mission formalizes the paper's §7 result: a larger stake in the same payoff raises the expected payoff. The source is the published MSOM 2008 article.

Setting

A decision maker chooses xxx from a decision domain S⊆RS\subseteq\mathbb RS⊆R to maximise a utility uuu. Under the multinomial logit model with bounded-rationality parameter β>0\beta>0β>0, the choice X♭X^\flatX♭ is random with density (eq. (2))

ψ(x)=eu(x)/β∫Seu(v)/β dv(x∈S),\psi(x)=\frac{e^{u(x)/\beta}}{\int_S e^{u(v)/\beta}\,dv}\qquad (x\in S),ψ(x)=∫S​eu(v)/βdveu(x)/β​(x∈S),

and ψ=0\psi=0ψ=0 off SSS. Large β\betaβ means near-uniform choice; β→0\beta\to0β→0 recovers the perfectly rational choice. In Lean this is logitDensity S u β, and the expectation of g(X♭)g(X^\flat)g(X♭) is logitExp S u β g =∫g(y)ψ(y) dy=\int g(y)\psi(y)\,dy=∫g(y)ψ(y)dy.

Proposition 5 takes an arbitrary payoff π\piπ on SSS. Two decision makers have the same β\betaβ but different stakes in π\piπ: their utilities are u1=λ1πu_1=\lambda_1\piu1​=λ1​π and u2=λ2πu_2=\lambda_2\piu2​=λ2​π. The resulting behavioral decisions X1♭X^\flat_1X1♭​ and X2♭X^\flat_2X2♭​ have densities ψ1\psi_1ψ1​ and ψ2\psi_2ψ2​.

In the newsvendor instance, demand DDD has density fff on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), a unit costs ccc and sells for p>cp>cp>c, and the expected profit is (eq. (3))

π(x)=p Emin⁡(D,x)−c x.\pi(x)=p\,E\min(D,x)-c\,x .π(x)=pEmin(D,x)−cx.

SSS is the smallest interval containing the support of fff. A retailer who receives the share λ\lambdaλ of the chain's profit has utility λπ\lambda\piλπ.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 (p. 580)

If λ1>λ2\lambda_1>\lambda_2λ1​>λ2​ and π\piπ is not almost everywhere constant on SSS, then

Eπ(X1♭)>Eπ(X2♭).E\pi(X^\flat_1)>E\pi(X^\flat_2).Eπ(X1♭​)>Eπ(X2♭​).

The goal leaves SSS, π\piπ, β\betaβ and the sign of the λi\lambda_iλi​ free. Its only standing requirement is that the two logit laws and their expected payoffs exist.

Milestones (proof of Proposition 5, p. 587)

  1. Eqs. (54)–(55): with K=∫Seu1/β/∫Seu2/βK=\int_Se^{u_1/\beta}\big/\int_Se^{u_2/\beta}K=∫S​eu1​/β/∫S​eu2​/β, for x∈Sx\in Sx∈S
ψ1(x)>ψ2(x)  ⟺  π(x)>βln⁡Kλ1−λ2.\psi_1(x)>\psi_2(x)\iff \pi(x)>\frac{\beta\ln K}{\lambda_1-\lambda_2}.ψ1​(x)>ψ2​(x)⟺π(x)>λ1​−λ2​βlnK​.
  1. Eqs. (56)–(57): π(X1♭)\pi(X^\flat_1)π(X1♭​) first-order stochastically dominates π(X2♭)\pi(X^\flat_2)π(X2♭​):
P(π(X1♭)≥k)≥P(π(X2♭)≥k)for all k∈R.P(\pi(X^\flat_1)\ge k)\ge P(\pi(X^\flat_2)\ge k)\quad\text{for all }k\in\mathbb R.P(π(X1♭​)≥k)≥P(π(X2♭​)≥k)for all k∈R.

Corollary 2 (p. 580)

For the newsvendor profit, 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p, β>0\beta>0β>0 and shares 0<λ2<λ10<\lambda_2<\lambda_10<λ2​<λ1​, Eπ(X1♭)>Eπ(X2♭)E\pi(X^\flat_1)>E\pi(X^\flat_2)Eπ(X1♭​)>Eπ(X2♭​). Here the existence of the logit laws and the non-constancy of π\piπ are proved, not assumed.

Significance

The result. Proposition 5 says that proportional incentive alignment does not coordinate a boundedly rational chain. A retailer with share λ<1\lambda<1λ<1 makes noisier decisions than a sole owner with the same β\betaβ, so the chain's expected profit is strictly lower. Two consequences follow in §7. Two-part tariffs, which make the retailer the sole residual claimant (λ=1\lambda=1λ=1), restore coordination. Arrangements that give the retailer an effective stake λ>1\lambda>1λ>1 in each decision may supercoordinate: the decentralised chain can earn more than a centralised but boundedly rational one. The statement applies to any logit decision problem, not only to the newsvendor.

Formalizing it. The paper's proof is short but informal. Formalization makes three things explicit. First, the existence conditions for the logit laws: when SSS is unbounded, eλπ/βe^{\lambda\pi/\beta}eλπ/β need not be integrable. Second, the non-constancy hypothesis that strictness needs. Third, the correction of the printed strict inequalities in (56)–(57). Corollary 2 additionally needs the newsvendor-specific facts that the logit law exists without a finite-mean assumption and that π\piπ is never constant on SSS. To our knowledge none of these results has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The natural first attempt is to differentiate λ↦Eλπ(X♭)\lambda\mapsto E_\lambda\pi(X^\flat)λ↦Eλ​π(X♭) and identify the derivative as Var⁡λ(π)/β\operatorname{Var}_\lambda(\pi)/\betaVarλ​(π)/β. On an unbounded domain this needs differentiation under the integral sign with uniform domination in λ\lambdaλ, and a finite variance at every intermediate λ\lambdaλ. Neither is among the hypotheses, which give integrability only at λ1\lambda_1λ1​ and λ2\lambda_2λ2​. The paper instead compares the two densities directly through a single crossing. Turning that into a strict inequality between expectations needs a measure-theoretic argument that a nonnegative integrand with zero integral vanishes almost everywhere, together with the non-constancy hypothesis. For Corollary 2 the main work is analytic: proving that p Emin⁡(D,x)−cxp\,E\min(D,x)-cxpEmin(D,x)−cx decays at least linearly without assuming ED<∞E D<\inftyED<∞, and that it is strictly decreasing near the right end of SSS.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real (ℝ). Integrals are Lebesgue/Bochner integrals, and "the density of Xi♭X^\flat_iXi♭​" is logitDensity S (fun x => λᵢ * π x) β. The following conventions are committed.

  • Standing readings. β>0\beta>0β>0, since eq. (2) divides by β\betaβ. In Corollary 2, 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p, and "λi\lambda_iλi​ share" is read as λi>0\lambda_i>0λi​>0; λi>1\lambda_i>1λi​>1 is allowed. One β\betaβ is shared by both decision makers, as the page says.
  • Proposition 5's implicit hypotheses, each disclosed in the item. SSS and π\piπ are measurable. eλiπ/βe^{\lambda_i\pi/\beta}eλi​π/β and πeλiπ/β\pi e^{\lambda_i\pi/\beta}πeλi​π/β are integrable on SSS. π\piπ is not a.e. constant on SSS. The last one is necessary: for constant π\piπ both sides are equal.
  • Corrected slip. Eqs. (56)–(57) print a strict >>> for every kkk. This is false for kkk outside the essential range of π\piπ, where both probabilities are 000 or both are 111. The milestone states the weak dominance for all kkk, which is the proof's own conclusion. (57)'s {π≤k}\{\pi\le k\}{π≤k} should be {π<k}\{\pi<k\}{π<k}; this does not matter for the weak form.
  • Decision domain in Corollary 2: the convex hull of the pointwise support of fff. No finite mean of DDD is assumed.
  • No trivialising encoding. Lean evaluates the integral of a non-integrable function to 000, which would make every logit density and expectation 000. Proposition 5 therefore assumes the integrability it needs, and Corollary 2 must prove it. Non-constancy rules out the case where both sides are equal.

Not formalized: the §7 discussion of two-part tariffs, sales rebates and supercoordination, which the paper argues rather than states.

Needed infrastructure: positivity of integrals of positive functions, set integrals over sub-level sets, and the newsvendor profit's derivative π′=pFˉ−c\pi'=p\bar F-cπ′=pFˉ−c. The single-crossing lemma and the stochastic-dominance lemma apply to any one-parameter Gibbs family and are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones, of the goal, and of Corollary 2 are all welcome.

Selected references

  • X. Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(4):566–589, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0200
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply Chain Coordination with Contracts, in Handbooks in OR & MS vol. 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • E. Katok, D. Y. Wu, Contracting in Supply Chains: A Laboratory Investigation, Management Science 55(12):1953–1968, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1089
  • S. P. Anderson, A. de Palma, J.-F. Thisse, Discrete Choice Theory of Product Differentiation, MIT Press, 1992.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models III: With x* at the Midpoint, a Decreasing Demand Density Gives E X♭ > x* and an Increasing One Gives E X♭ < x*Research Paper

Why order quantities can move away from likely demand

A seller choosing inventory before demand is known faces two kinds of uncertainty: uncertainty about demand and uncertainty about how consistently the decision maker selects a profitable quantity. The classical newsvendor model treats the seller as choosing a quantity that maximizes expected profit. In the bounded-rationality model of Su (2008), the chosen quantity is random, and quantities with higher expected profit receive greater probability. This makes it possible to ask whether a systematic change in the demand density creates a systematic change in the seller's average order, even when the classically optimal order is fixed.

The question matters for interpreting inventory decisions. An order above the classical optimum might reflect the shape of demand rather than a changed selling price, purchase cost, or demand forecast. Su's Proposition 4 isolates this effect by placing the classical optimum at the midpoint of the possible demand range. The resulting shift is called rare-event bias: the average behavioral order moves toward the end of the demand range where realizations are less likely. The target and its source are the published Manufacturing & Service Operations Management article, not a numerical approximation or a later restatement. Su (2008), §6, p. 577.

Demand, profit, and logit choice

Let demand DDD be nonnegative and have a density fff supported on [a,b][a,b][a,b], with 0≤a<b0\le a<b0≤a<b. Its distribution function is F(x)=∫−∞xf(t) dtF(x)=\int_{-\infty}^{x}f(t)\,dtF(x)=∫−∞x​f(t)dt, and its survival function is Fˉ(x)=1−F(x)\bar F(x)=1-F(x)Fˉ(x)=1−F(x). The midpoint and half-width of the demand range are m=(a+b)/2m=(a+b)/2m=(a+b)/2 and r=(b−a)/2r=(b-a)/2r=(b−a)/2. The seller pays ccc per unit ordered and sells each fulfilled unit at price ppp, where 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p. For order quantity xxx, expected fulfilled demand is E[min⁡(D,x)]\mathbb E[\min(D,x)]E[min(D,x)], and expected profit is

π(x)=p E[min⁡(D,x)]−cx.\pi(x)=p\,\mathbb E[\min(D,x)]-cx.π(x)=pE[min(D,x)]−cx.

The optimal order x∗x^*x∗ maximizes π\piπ over real order quantities. The mission studies the case x∗=mx^*=mx∗=m. The paper gives the usual critical-fractile characterization Fˉ(x∗)=c/p\bar F(x^*)=c/pFˉ(x∗)=c/p; the first supporting target below makes its midpoint consequence explicit rather than assuming it as a substitute for optimality. Su (2008), §4, p. 572, and Appendix, p. 586.

Under logit choice, the seller selects a random behavioral order X♭X^\flatX♭ from the decision domain S=[a,b]S=[a,b]S=[a,b]. Its density is

ψ(x)=eπ(x)/β∫abeπ(v)/β dv,x∈[a,b],\psi(x)=\frac{e^{\pi(x)/\beta}}{\int_a^b e^{\pi(v)/\beta}\,dv},\qquad x\in[a,b],ψ(x)=∫ab​eπ(v)/βdveπ(x)/β​,x∈[a,b],

and ψ(x)=0\psi(x)=0ψ(x)=0 outside that interval. The parameter β>0\beta>0β>0 measures the amount of choice noise. The quantity compared with x∗x^*x∗ is the genuine mean E[X♭]=∫abxψ(x) dx\mathbb E[X^\flat]=\int_a^b x\psi(x)\,dxE[X♭]=∫ab​xψ(x)dx. The profit, decision domain, and sign in the exponential follow equations (2)–(4) of the paper. Su (2008), pp. 571–572.

Formalization targets

The supporting targets from the appendix identify the critical fractile at the midpoint, compare profits at reflected quantities, and express the behavioral mean through reflected choice densities:

c=pFˉ(m),π(m+y)−π(m−y)=p∫0y∫0v[f(m−z)−f(m+z)] dz dv,c=p\bar F(m),\qquad \pi(m+y)-\pi(m-y) =p\int_0^y\int_0^v [f(m-z)-f(m+z)]\,dz\,dv,c=pFˉ(m),π(m+y)−π(m−y)=p∫0y​∫0v​[f(m−z)−f(m+z)]dzdv,

for 0<y≤r0<y\le r0<y≤r, followed by

E[X♭]=m+∫0rv[ψ(m+v)−ψ(m−v)] dv.\mathbb E[X^\flat] =m+\int_0^r v[\psi(m+v)-\psi(m-v)]\,dv.E[X♭]=m+∫0r​v[ψ(m+v)−ψ(m−v)]dv.

These are the source's appendix displays (43)–(53). The profit comparison is strictly positive when fff is strictly decreasing. The goal, Proposition 4, contains both directions:

f strictly decreasing on [a,b]⟹E[X♭]>x∗=m,f strictly increasing on [a,b]⟹E[X♭]<x∗=m.\begin{aligned} f\text{ strictly decreasing on }[a,b]&\Longrightarrow \mathbb E[X^\flat]>x^*=m,\\ f\text{ strictly increasing on }[a,b]&\Longrightarrow \mathbb E[X^\flat]<x^*=m. \end{aligned}f strictly decreasing on [a,b]f strictly increasing on [a,b]​⟹E[X♭]>x∗=m,⟹E[X♭]<x∗=m.​

The proposition states a directional bias, rather than a formula for its size. The increasing-density direction is part of the printed proposition even though the appendix explicitly works through only the decreasing-density case. Su (2008), Proposition 4, p. 577; proof, pp. 586–587.

What the result establishes

Holding the optimal order at mmm removes a shift in the rational optimum from the comparison. A decreasing density then gives more demand mass toward aaa, yet the average behavioral order lies above mmm; an increasing density reverses the conclusion. Thus the mean of the choice distribution cannot generally be inferred from the modal or classically optimal order alone. This is a qualitative property of the continuous logit newsvendor, not a claim about every possible bounded-rationality model. Su (2008), §6, p. 577.

The result is proved in the published paper. The formalization work here is to supply machine-checked proofs of the stated Lean targets, together with reusable definitions of density-based expected sales, newsvendor profit, and a continuous logit choice law. These declarations are proposed open targets; a successful local build checks that their statements are well formed, but it does not constitute proofs. The reflection identity for a general continuous utility can also serve other one-dimensional logit-choice comparisons on symmetric bounded domains.

Where the mathematical work lies

The classical first-order condition determines x∗x^*x∗, but it does not determine the mean of the logit distribution. Even when the optimal order is exactly mmm, the profit function may have different values at m+ym+ym+y and m−ym-ym−y, and the exponential normalization changes how those values affect the mean. A direct appeal to the monotonicity of fff alone therefore does not establish the conclusion. The appendix records the reflected profit and mean identities that a complete proof must justify for the density-based model. In Lean, these claims also require careful treatment of integration and the distribution function at interval boundaries. Su (2008), Appendix, pp. 586–587.

Formalization scope and conventions

The Lean development represents fff as a real-valued integrable density, nonnegative everywhere, zero on negative demand, and of total integral one. For this mission it is also zero outside [a,b][a,b][a,b]. The decision domain is exactly [a,b][a,b][a,b]; under either strict monotonicity assumption its closure agrees with the smallest interval containing the demand support. The logit density uses e+π/βe^{+\pi/\beta}e+π/β, and its expectation is an ordinary real integral. Because profit is continuous and [a,b][a,b][a,b] is compact with a<ba<ba<b, the normalizer is finite and positive. A zero-valued Lean integral on non-integrable input must not make any target true accidentally.

The standing readings are β>0\beta>0β>0 and 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p. The source says “decreasing” and “increasing” while its displayed proof uses a strict density inequality; the goal therefore requires strict monotonicity. A constant density can have x∗=mx^*=mx∗=m and E[X♭]=m\mathbb E[X^\flat]=mE[X♭]=m, showing why a strict conclusion cannot follow from weak monotonicity alone. At y=0y=0y=0, the two reflected densities are equal, so the proof's phrase “for every y∈[0,r]y\in[0,r]y∈[0,r]” for a strict comparison is read as 0<y≤r0<y\le r0<y≤r. The paper's prose also swaps the inequality labels for overordering and underordering; the formal inequalities follow the conclusion of its proof. These corrections are disclosed in the item descriptions and audit notes. Su (2008), §6, p. 577; Appendix, p. 587.

The midpoint is required to be a maximizer of the defined profit function over all real orders. It is not supplied as an unrelated parameter or characterized by the critical-fractile equality by fiat. The central reusable components are the density, its cumulative distribution function, expected fulfilled demand, and the logit density and expectation. Contributions that establish their continuity, integrability, and reflection properties directly advance the goal.

Selected references

  • Xuanming Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(4):566–589, 2008. DOI: 10.1287/msom.1070.0200.
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Markov ChainProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: mikedeng1

The Two-Parameter Poisson–Dirichlet Distribution Derived from a Stable Subordinator 5: PD(α, θ) Is a Y_1^θ-Tilt of Independent beta(θ + nα, 1) Ratios, and (Y_n) Is a Markov ChainResearch Paper

Motivation

The two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) is a law on decreasing sequences V1≥V2≥⋯>0V_1 \ge V_2 \ge \cdots > 0V1​≥V2​≥⋯>0 with ∑nVn=1\sum_n V_n = 1∑n​Vn​=1. It describes the ranked frequencies of species in Bayesian nonparametric models (the Pitman–Yor process), the ranked lengths of excursions of Bessel processes and bridges, and the ranked cycle or block sizes in random combinatorial structures. The case α=0\alpha = 0α=0 is Kingman's one-parameter family PD(θ)\mathrm{PD}(\theta)PD(θ), the law of the ranked frequencies in the Ewens sampling formula.

For PD(0,θ)\mathrm{PD}(0,\theta)PD(0,θ), Vershik and Shmidt ([67]) and Ignatov ([34]) found a Markov description: the residual fractions Yn=Vn/(Vn+Vn+1+⋯ )Y_n = V_n/(V_n + V_{n+1} + \cdots)Yn​=Vn​/(Vn​+Vn+1​+⋯) form a homogeneous Markov chain, and the law is the Y1θY_1^\thetaY1θ​-tilt of a stationary chain built from independent beta(θ,1)\mathrm{beta}(\theta,1)beta(θ,1) ratios. For PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0), Proposition 8 of Pitman and Yor shows that the ratios Rn=Vn+1/VnR_n = V_{n+1}/V_nRn​=Vn+1​/Vn​ themselves are independent beta(nα,1)\mathrm{beta}(n\alpha,1)beta(nα,1) variables. Theorem 38 of Pitman and Yor (Ann. Probab. 25 (1997) 855–900) unifies both descriptions for the whole two-parameter family.

Timeline. Vershik and Shmidt (1977, 1978, [66, 67]) and Ignatov (1982, [34]) described the size-ordered PD(0,θ)\mathrm{PD}(0,\theta)PD(0,θ) frequencies through the Markov chain (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​); Ignatov showed that results of Vervaat and Watterson give the normalizing constant K0,θ=Γ(θ+1)eθγK_{0,\theta} = \Gamma(\theta+1)e^{\theta\gamma}K0,θ​=Γ(θ+1)eθγ (132). Much of this was known earlier for θ=1\theta = 1θ=1, the case arising in combinatorics and number theory. Perman, Pitman and Yor (1992, [51]) proved the absolute continuity of PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) with respect to PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0) (Proposition 14 here). Pitman and Yor (1997) announced the two-parameter Markov description as Theorem 15 and proved it as Theorem 38 for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, quoting the case α=0\alpha = 0α=0 (Remark 40).

Setting

Fix 0<α<10 < \alpha < 10<α<1 and θ>−α\theta > -\alphaθ>−α. The beta distribution beta(a,b)\mathrm{beta}(a,b)beta(a,b) (a,b>0a,b>0a,b>0) has density Γ(a+b)Γ(a)Γ(b)xa−1(1−x)b−1\frac{\Gamma(a+b)}{\Gamma(a)\Gamma(b)}x^{a-1}(1-x)^{b-1}Γ(a)Γ(b)Γ(a+b)​xa−1(1−x)b−1 on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). Let Y~1,Y~2,…\tilde Y_1, \tilde Y_2, \dotsY~1​,Y~2​,… be independent with Y~n∼beta(1−α,θ+nα)\tilde Y_n \sim \mathrm{beta}(1-\alpha, \theta+n\alpha)Y~n​∼beta(1−α,θ+nα), and put V~1=Y~1\tilde V_1 = \tilde Y_1V~1​=Y~1​, V~n=(1−Y~1)⋯(1−Y~n−1)Y~n\tilde V_n = (1-\tilde Y_1)\cdots(1-\tilde Y_{n-1})\tilde Y_nV~n​=(1−Y~1​)⋯(1−Y~n−1​)Y~n​. The ranked values V1≥V2≥⋯V_1 \ge V_2 \ge \cdotsV1​≥V2​≥⋯ of (V~n)(\tilde V_n)(V~n​) have, by Definition 1, the law PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ); Pα,θP_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ​ denotes a probability under which (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) has this law, and Eα,θE_{\alpha,\theta}Eα,θ​ its expectation.

From (Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) define the ratios Rn=Vn+1/VnR_n = V_{n+1}/V_nRn​=Vn+1​/Vn​ (21), the residual fractions Yn=Vn/(Vn+Vn+1+⋯ )Y_n = V_n/(V_n+V_{n+1}+\cdots)Yn​=Vn​/(Vn​+Vn+1​+⋯) (45), and Σ1=(1−V1)/V1\Sigma_1 = (1-V_1)/V_1Σ1​=(1−V1​)/V1​. Conversely, from ratios define

Yn=(1+Rn+RnRn+1+⋯ )−1(125).Y_n = (1 + R_n + R_nR_{n+1} + \cdots)^{-1} \qquad (125).Yn​=(1+Rn​+Rn​Rn+1​+⋯)−1(125).

The local time is L=lim⁡n→∞nVnαL = \lim_{n\to\infty} nV_n^\alphaL=limn→∞​nVnα​ (24).

The comparison law Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​ makes R1,R2,…R_1, R_2, \dotsR1​,R2​,… independent with Rn∼beta(θ+nα,1)R_n \sim \mathrm{beta}(\theta+n\alpha,1)Rn​∼beta(θ+nα,1), and YnY_nYn​ is then defined by (125). Constants and functions:

Kα,θ=Γ(θ+1)Γ(1−α)θ/α,Cα,θ=Kα,θΓ(θ/α+1),ψα(λ)=1+α∫01(1−e−λx)x−α−1dx.K_{\alpha,\theta} = \Gamma(\theta+1)\Gamma(1-\alpha)^{\theta/\alpha}, \qquad C_{\alpha,\theta} = \frac{K_{\alpha,\theta}}{\Gamma(\theta/\alpha+1)}, \qquad \psi_\alpha(\lambda) = 1 + \alpha\int_0^1(1-e^{-\lambda x})x^{-\alpha-1}dx.Kα,θ​=Γ(θ+1)Γ(1−α)θ/α,Cα,θ​=Γ(θ/α+1)Kα,θ​​,ψα​(λ)=1+α∫01​(1−e−λx)x−α−1dx.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 38 for 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1

Eα,θ[f(Y1,Y2,… )]=Kα,θ Eα,θ∗[Y1θf(Y1,Y2,… )](137)E_{\alpha,\theta}[f(Y_1,Y_2,\dots)] = K_{\alpha,\theta}\,E^*_{\alpha,\theta}[Y_1^\theta f(Y_1,Y_2,\dots)] \qquad (137)Eα,θ​[f(Y1​,Y2​,…)]=Kα,θ​Eα,θ∗​[Y1θ​f(Y1​,Y2​,…)](137)

for every nonnegative product measurable fff; under both Pα,θP_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ​ and Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​ the sequence (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) is a Markov chain with the same forward transition probabilities, with density

P(Yn+1∈dyn+1∣Yn=yn)dyn+1=α yn−α−1(1−yn)nα+θ−1r(α,θ+nα,yn+1)r(α,θ+nα−α,yn)(139)\frac{P(Y_{n+1}\in dy_{n+1}\mid Y_n = y_n)}{dy_{n+1}} = \alpha\,y_n^{-\alpha-1}(1-y_n)^{n\alpha+\theta-1}\frac{r(\alpha,\theta+n\alpha,y_{n+1})}{r(\alpha,\theta+n\alpha-\alpha,y_n)} \qquad (139)dyn+1​P(Yn+1​∈dyn+1​∣Yn​=yn​)​=αyn−α−1​(1−yn​)nα+θ−1r(α,θ+nα−α,yn​)r(α,θ+nα,yn+1​)​(139)

on 0<yn<10<y_n<10<yn​<1, 0<yn+1<yn/(1−yn)0<y_{n+1}<y_n/(1-y_n)0<yn+1​<yn​/(1−yn​), where r(α,θ,y) dy=Γ(θ/α+1)yθPα,θ∗(Y1∈dy)=Cα,θ−1Pα,θ(V1∈dy)r(\alpha,\theta,y)\,dy = \Gamma(\theta/\alpha+1)y^\theta P^*_{\alpha,\theta}(Y_1\in dy) = C^{-1}_{\alpha,\theta}P_{\alpha,\theta}(V_1\in dy)r(α,θ,y)dy=Γ(θ/α+1)yθPα,θ∗​(Y1​∈dy)=Cα,θ−1​Pα,θ​(V1​∈dy) (140); and the Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​ law of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​ is infinitely divisible with

Eα,θ∗[e−λΣ1]=ψα(λ)−(θ/α+1)(141).E^*_{\alpha,\theta}[e^{-\lambda\Sigma_1}] = \psi_\alpha(\lambda)^{-(\theta/\alpha+1)} \qquad (141).Eα,θ∗​[e−λΣ1​]=ψα​(λ)−(θ/α+1)(141).

Milestones

Proposition 8 (Pα,0=Pα,0∗P_{\alpha,0} = P^*_{\alpha,0}Pα,0​=Pα,0∗​ on the ratios), Proposition 14 (the density Cα,θLθ/αC_{\alpha,\theta}L^{\theta/\alpha}Cα,θ​Lθ/α of PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) relative to PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0)), the moments (30) of LLL, the representation (143) of LLL through the ratios, the finite-dimensional change of measure (144), its limit (145), Proposition 37 (independent ratios give a Markov chain (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​), with co-transition density (128)), the parameter shift (146), and the conditional Laplace transform of Σ1\Sigma_1Σ1​ given X1=LV1−αX_1 = LV_1^{-\alpha}X1​=LV1−α​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 38 reduces the size-ordered PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) frequencies to a product of independent beta variables, up to a density Kα,θY1θK_{\alpha,\theta}Y_1^\thetaKα,θ​Y1θ​ that depends on Y1Y_1Y1​ alone. Any functional of the ranked frequencies can therefore be computed under a product measure. The Markov property gives the joint density of Y1,…,YnY_1,\dots,Y_nY1​,…,Yn​ (Corollary 41), the laws of individual VnV_nVn​ (148), and the asymptotics of YnY_nYn​ and Σn\Sigma_nΣn​ in §7.3 of the paper. Part (iii) identifies the law of (1−V1)/V1(1-V_1)/V_1(1−V1​)/V1​ under Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​, which determines the density of the largest frequency V1V_1V1​ under PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ).

The formalization. The result has been proved since 1997; none of it is machine-checked. The mission formalizes the paper's own route: absolute continuity (Proposition 14), the beta product structure (Proposition 8), and a limit of finite-dimensional density ratios. It produces reusable statements about real-valued Markov chains defined through conditional laws, and about changes of measure between infinite products. Note that the printed (139) omits the factor α\alphaα; the formal statement includes it (see Formalization scope).

Difficulty

The finite-dimensional change of measure (144) is an exact computation, but its density (R1⋯Rn)θ(R_1\cdots R_n)^\theta(R1​⋯Rn​)θ degenerates as n→∞n\to\inftyn→∞. Passing to the limit (145) requires identifying the limit of the rescaled densities nθ/α(R1⋯Rn)θn^{\theta/\alpha}(R_1\cdots R_n)^\thetanθ/α(R1​⋯Rn​)θ with Lθ/αY1−θL^{\theta/\alpha}Y_1^{-\theta}Lθ/αY1−θ​, and an almost sure limit of densities does not by itself give the identity of expectations. A second obstacle is that the Markov property of (Yn)(Y_n)(Yn​) under Pα,θP_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ​ does not follow from any independence under Pα,θP_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ​ itself; it is transported from Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​ through a density that is a function of Y1Y_1Y1​ only, and the transported kernels must be shown to be the same. Part (iii) needs the Laplace transform of 1/V11/V_11/V1​ conditioned on X1X_1X1​, which comes from the Poisson structure of PD(α,0)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,0)PD(α,0).

Formalization scope

Sequences are ℕ → ℝ, 0-based: V ω k is Vk+1V_{k+1}Vk+1​, Yseq v k and YofR r k are Yk+1Y_{k+1}Yk+1​. "(Vn)(V_n)(Vn​) has PD(α,θ)\mathrm{PD}(\alpha,\theta)PD(α,θ) law" (HasPD) means that measures of preimages of measurable sets agree with those of the ranked stick-breaking map under an independent beta product (IsStickLaw); ranking counts exceedances with Set.encard. Pα,θ∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ∗​ is any probability measure on ℕ → ℝ with independent coordinates of the stated beta laws (IsStarLaw); it is defined directly as a product, never through Pα,θP_{\alpha,\theta}Pα,θ​. The local time LLL is a random variable given with its defining almost sure limit (24). A Markov chain with forward kernels κn\kappa_nκn​ (IsMarkovWith) is stated through the defining identity E[g(Y1..Yn)h(Yn+1)]=E[g(Y1..Yn)∫h dκn(Yn)]E[g(Y_1..Y_n)h(Y_{n+1})] = E[g(Y_1..Y_n)\int h\,d\kappa_n(Y_n)]E[g(Y1​..Yn​)h(Yn+1​)]=E[g(Y1​..Yn​)∫hdκn​(Yn​)]; Theorem 38 (ii) asks for one family of Markov kernels serving both laws. The function rrr of (140) is a hypothesis: any function giving the density of Y1Y_1Y1​ under each Pα,θ+kα∗P^*_{\alpha,\theta+k\alpha}Pα,θ+kα∗​.

Committed deviations: the goal is the case 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, the case the paper proves (the case α=0\alpha=0α=0 is quoted from [67], [34]); (139) carries the factor α\alphaα that Bayes' rule from (128), (146) and the beta densities produces, and that Corollary 41's αn−1\alpha^{n-1}αn−1 confirms; (30) omits its middle expression CpE(Σ−αp)C^pE(\Sigma^{-\alpha p})CpE(Σ−αp). Every expectation of a nonnegative quantity is a lower Lebesgue integral, so no identity can hold through the junk value of a non-integrable Bochner integral; no law is written as Measure.map of a possibly non-measurable function; no limit is taken with limUnder; and the parameter range 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1, θ>−α\theta>-\alphaθ>−α is a hypothesis of every statement that uses it.

Contributions welcome: the product-measure and beta-density computations behind (144) and (146), the limit passage (145), the Markov property of functions of independent sequences (Proposition 37), and the transfer of a Markov property through a density depending on the first coordinate.

Selected references

  • J. Pitman and M. Yor, The two-parameter Poisson–Dirichlet distribution derived from a stable subordinator, Ann. Probab. 25(2) (1997), 855–900. https://doi.org/10.1214/aop/1024404422
  • A. M. Vershik and A. A. Shmidt, Limit measures arising in the theory of groups, I, Theory Probab. Appl. 22 (1977), 79–85; II, Theory Probab. Appl. 23 (1978), 36–49 (references [66], [67] of the paper; no link verified).
  • Ts. Ignatov, On a constant arising in the theory of symmetric groups and on Poisson–Dirichlet measures, Theory Probab. Appl. 27 (1982), 136–147 (reference [34] of the paper; no link verified).
  • M. Perman, J. Pitman and M. Yor, Size-biased sampling of Poisson point processes and excursions, Probab. Theory Related Fields 92 (1992), 21–39. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01205234
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments III: A More Fashionable Category in the Majorization Order Earns No More Optimal ProfitResearch Paper

Motivation

A retailer deciding how many variants of a product to carry (colours, sizes, flavours) trades off two effects. More variants capture more customers whose favourite would otherwise be missing, but they split demand into smaller and more variable streams, and stocking many small streams costs more inventory per unit sold. van Ryzin and Mahajan (Management Science 45(11), 1999) model this trade-off with multinomial logit (MNL) choice and newsvendor inventory costs. Their §4 asks how the trade-off depends on the category itself: is a fashion category, where customer preferences are spread evenly over many variants, intrinsically less profitable than a basic category, where a few variants dominate? They make "evenness" precise with the theory of majorization (Marshall and Olkin, Inequalities: Theory of Majorization and Its Applications, Academic Press, 1979) and prove that, with everything else equal, the more fashionable category earns no more optimal profit. This mission formalizes that comparison, Theorem 3 of the paper.

Setting

A category has nnn variants N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} with preferences v1≥v2≥⋯≥vn≥0v_1\ge v_2\ge\cdots\ge v_n\ge 0v1​≥v2​≥⋯≥vn​≥0 (sorted by popularity, as in §3.1) and a no-purchase option with preference v0>0v_0>0v0​>0. If the store offers an assortment S⊆NS\subseteq NS⊆N, a customer picks variant j∈Sj\in Sj∈S with the MNL probability

qj(S)=vj∑i∈Svi+v0.q_j(S)=\frac{v_j}{\sum_{i\in S}v_i+v_0}.qj​(S)=∑i∈S​vi​+v0​vj​​.

The prefix set Ai={1,…,i}A_i=\{1,\dots,i\}Ai​={1,…,i} holds the iii most popular variants, with A0=∅A_0=\emptysetA0​=∅.

Every variant sells at price ppp and costs ccc, with 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p. The store sees λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 customers on average. Two demand models give two optimal-profit functions of the assortment (equations (7) and (8) of the paper). In the independent population model, demand for variant jjj is normal with mean λqj\lambda q_jλqj​ and standard deviation σ(λqj)β\sigma(\lambda q_j)^\betaσ(λqj​)β, where σ>0\sigma>0σ>0 and 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1. Its optimal expected profit is

πI(S,v)=(p−c)λ∑j∈Sqj−pσλβe−z2/22π∑j∈Sqjβ,z=Φ−1 ⁣(1−cp),\pi_I(S,v)=(p-c)\lambda\sum_{j\in S}q_j-\frac{p\sigma\lambda^\beta e^{-z^2/2}}{\sqrt{2\pi}}\sum_{j\in S}q_j^\beta,\qquad z=\Phi^{-1}\!\Big(1-\frac cp\Big),πI​(S,v)=(p−c)λj∈S∑​qj​−2π​pσλβe−z2/2​j∈S∑​qjβ​,z=Φ−1(1−pc​),

with Φ\PhiΦ the standard normal distribution function. In the trend-following population model, all customers make one common random choice, and the optimal profit is

πT(S,v)=∑j∈S(pqj−c)+λ.\pi_T(S,v)=\sum_{j\in S}(pq_j-c)^+\lambda .πT​(S,v)=j∈S∑​(pqj​−c)+λ.

For x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn write x[1]≥⋯≥x[n]x_{[1]}\ge\cdots\ge x_{[n]}x[1]​≥⋯≥x[n]​ for its entries in decreasing order. Then xxx is majorized by yyy, written x≺yx\prec yx≺y, if

∑i=1nx[i]=∑i=1ny[i]and∑i=1kx[i]≤∑i=1ky[i]  (k=1,…,n−1).\sum_{i=1}^n x_{[i]}=\sum_{i=1}^n y_{[i]}\quad\text{and}\quad\sum_{i=1}^k x_{[i]}\le\sum_{i=1}^k y_{[i]}\ \ (k=1,\dots,n-1).i=1∑n​x[i]​=i=1∑n​y[i]​andi=1∑k​x[i]​≤i=1∑k​y[i]​  (k=1,…,n−1).

A category vvv is more fashionable than www if v≺wv\prec wv≺w: its preferences are more evenly spread.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3

Let vvv and www be two categories with nnn variants each, both sorted, sharing p,c,λ,σ,βp,c,\lambda,\sigma,\betap,c,λ,σ,β and with v0=w0v_0=w_0v0​=w0​. Let ArA_rAr​ maximize π(⋅,v)\pi(\cdot,v)π(⋅,v) and AlA_lAl​ maximize π(⋅,w)\pi(\cdot,w)π(⋅,w) over all subsets of NNN. Then

v≺w ⟹ π(Ar,v)≤π(Al,w),v\prec w\ \Longrightarrow\ \pi(A_r,v)\le\pi(A_l,w),v≺w ⟹ π(Ar​,v)≤π(Al​,w),

for π=πI\pi=\pi_Iπ=πI​ and for π=πT\pi=\pi_Tπ=πT​.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Lemma 1: quasi-convexity of the "add one variant of preference δ\deltaδ" profit h(δ)h(\delta)h(δ).
  2. The end-point values: h(0)=π(S,v)h(0)=\pi(S,v)h(0)=π(S,v) and h(vj)=π(S∪{j},v)h(v_j)=\pi(S\cup\{j\},v)h(vj​)=π(S∪{j},v).
  3. Lemma 2: Karamata's inequality, x≺y⇒∑g(xi)≤∑g(yi)x\prec y\Rightarrow\sum g(x_i)\le\sum g(y_i)x≺y⇒∑g(xi​)≤∑g(yi​) for convex ggg.
  4. The choice of ttt and δ\deltaδ: t≤rt\le rt≤r and 0<δ≤10<\delta\le10<δ≤1 with ∑j<twj+δwt=∑j≤rvj\sum_{j<t}w_j+\delta w_t=\sum_{j\le r}v_j∑j<t​wj​+δwt​=∑j≤r​vj​.
  5. Convexity: the functions ggg and gTg^TgT are convex.
  6. The majorization step: (v1,…,vr)≺w′=(w1,…,wt−1,δwt,0,…,0)(v_1,\dots,v_r)\prec w'=(w_1,\dots,w_{t-1},\delta w_t,0,\dots,0)(v1​,…,vr​)≺w′=(w1​,…,wt−1​,δwt​,0,…,0).
  7. Inequality (12).
  8. The identification of its two sides: π(Ar,v)\pi(A_r,v)π(Ar​,v) and h(δwt)h(\delta w_t)h(δwt​).

Significance

The theorem isolates a structural cost of fashion. Holding volume, margin and outside-option attractiveness fixed, fragmentation of preferences alone lowers the best achievable profit, even when the retailer chooses variety and stock levels optimally. The paper uses it to argue that fashion categories must command higher prices or volumes to be carried, and §4.2 asks at what prices two categories break even. The comparison also links the paper's MNL assortment model to Schur-convexity, which is the right tool for any question about how evenness of preferences affects an optimized objective.

The result is proved on paper; no machine-checked version exists. Formalizing it adds:

  • a checked statement of Karamata's inequality for functions convex on an interval, which Mathlib lacks;
  • a reusable majorization definition stated through decreasing rearrangements;
  • a checked account of the edge cases the printed proof passes over: β=0\beta=0β=0, an empty optimal assortment, zero-preference variants.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails: one cannot apply Karamata's inequality directly to the optimal profits. The optimal assortments ArA_rAr​ and AlA_lAl​ have different sizes, so the MNL denominators differ, and π(Ar,v)\pi(A_r,v)π(Ar​,v) is not a sum of one fixed convex function over the coordinates of vvv. Moreover, majorization compares whole vectors of length nnn, while the optimal profit of vvv depends only on its top rrr coordinates, and the profit of www is maximized over a discrete family of prefix sets. Bridging the vector inequality and the discrete optimization is the content of the proof. Lemma 2 itself is classical but nontrivial, and Mathlib has no version of it.

Formalization scope

  • Variants are Fin n, 0-based: variant jjj of the paper is index j−1j-1j−1, and A n i is the indices below iii.
  • Preferences are real with vj≥0v_j\ge0vj​≥0. Zeros are allowed, because the paper pads categories with zero-preference variants (p. 1505). The no-purchase preference is a separate v0 > 0, shared by both categories.
  • Both vectors are sorted decreasingly (Antitone), the §3.1 convention under which AiA_iAi​ is the set of the iii most popular variants.
  • zzz is the least xxx with 1−c/p≤Φ(x)1-c/p\le\Phi(x)1−c/p≤Φ(x); for 0<c<p0<c<p0<c<p it is the exact quantile.
  • Powers are real powers (Real.rpow, with 00=10^0=100=1), and (x)+(x)^+(x)+ is max x 0.
  • The goal states both demand models as a conjunction.
  • r,l∈{0,…,n}r,l\in\{0,\dots,n\}r,l∈{0,…,n}, and their optimality is a hypothesis, as the theorem defines them; their existence (Theorem 1 of the paper) is not used.
  • Majorization is defined through sorting permutations: the partial sums of the sorted vectors.

Statements that do not count:

  • partial sums of the unsorted vectors;
  • the reversed relation w≺vw\prec vw≺v;
  • rrr and lll chosen freely rather than optimal;
  • different p,c,λ,σ,βp,c,\lambda,\sigma,\betap,c,λ,σ,β or v0v_0v0​ for the two categories.

Each of these changes the theorem.

Needed infrastructure: Karamata's inequality (Lemma 2), which is reusable well beyond this paper; basic facts about MNL shares; and the quasi-convexity of ratio functions from Lemma 1. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative proofs of the goal, for example through Schur-convexity.

Selected references

  • G. van Ryzin and S. Mahajan, On the Relationship Between Inventory Costs and Variety Benefits in Retail Assortments, Management Science 45(11):1496–1509, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.45.11.1496
  • A. W. Marshall and I. Olkin, Inequalities: Theory of Majorization and Its Applications, Academic Press, 1979; 2nd ed. with B. C. Arnold, Springer, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-68276-1
  • J. Karamata, Sur une inégalité relative aux fonctions convexes, Publ. Math. Univ. Belgrade 1:145–148, 1932. http://elib.mi.sanu.ac.rs/files/journals/publ/1/11.pdf
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models 2: The Optimal Lost-Sales Order Obeys the Karlin–Scarf–Morton Bounds z̄_t(v) ∈ Z(s̄) for All t ≤ TResearch Paper

Why bounds on the lost-sales order matter

In the periodic-review inventory system with lost sales and a positive lead time LLL, demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backlogged. Unlike the backorder model, whose optimal policy is a base-stock policy depending only on the inventory position, the lost-sales model needs the whole pipeline of outstanding orders as its state, and its optimal policy has no closed form. Exact dynamic programming is impractical beyond small lead times, so practitioners and researchers rely on structural information: monotonicity of the optimal order, and simple bounds that bracket it.

The classical bounds go back to Karlin and Scarf (1958), who studied the case L=1L = 1L=1, and Morton (1969), who obtained bounds for general LLL in terms of fractiles of cumulative demand. Zipkin (2008, DOI 10.1287/opre.1070.0482) recovered these bounds inside a unified framework built on a transformed state variable, the partial sums of the pipeline. This mission formalizes that recovery: §4 of the paper, from the closed form of the arriving inventory to Corollary 9.

Timeline. Karlin and Scarf (1958) treat the one-period lead time; Morton (1969) proves the fractile bounds for any LLL and uses the partial-sum state; Nahmias (1979) gives the closed form (7) for the inventory on hand when an order arrives; Zipkin (2008) derives the bounds again by an induction on the re-accounted recursion, together with L♮L^\naturalL♮-convexity results for the original recursion.

The model

Periods are t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T. In each period the order due arrives, a new order z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 is placed, and demand ddd occurs. Demands are independent, identically distributed and nonnegative, with law μ\muμ. The costs are a unit procurement cost ccc, a unit holding cost h^\hat hh^, a unit lost-sales penalty ppp, and a discount factor γ\gammaγ; write h=h^−γch = \hat h - \gamma ch=h^−γc.

The state is the vector v=(v0,…,vL−1)v = (v_0, \dots, v_{L-1})v=(v0​,…,vL−1​) with vl=∑k≥lxkv_l = \sum_{k \ge l} x_kvl​=∑k≥l​xk​, where x0x_0x0​ is the inventory on hand and x1,…,xL−1x_1, \dots, x_{L-1}x1​,…,xL−1​ are the outstanding orders, oldest first. The state space is the cone

V={v∈RL:v0≥v1≥⋯≥vL−1≥0}.V = \{ v \in \mathbb R^L : v_0 \ge v_1 \ge \dots \ge v_{L-1} \ge 0 \}.V={v∈RL:v0​≥v1​≥⋯≥vL−1​≥0}.

After demand ddd and order zzz the state becomes

v+=([v0−v1−d]++v1, v2, …, vL−1, 0)+ze,v_+ = \big([v_0 - v_1 - d]^+ + v_1,\ v_2,\ \dots,\ v_{L-1},\ 0\big) + z e,v+​=([v0​−v1​−d]++v1​, v2​, …, vL−1​, 0)+ze,

with eee the vector of ones. Let y+Ly_{+L}y+L​ be the inventory on hand when the current order arrives, LLL periods later.

The §4 accounting charges to period ttt the expected cost of period t+Lt + Lt+L, when the order of period ttt is on hand:

q0(y)=cy+hE[[y−d]+]+pE[[y−d]−],q(v,z)=γLE[q0(y+L)].q^0(y) = c y + h E\big[[y - d]^+\big] + p E\big[[y - d]^-\big], \qquad q(v, z) = \gamma^L E\big[q^0(y_{+L})\big].q0(y)=cy+hE[[y−d]+]+pE[[y−d]−],q(v,z)=γLE[q0(y+L​)].

The optimal costs satisfy

gt(v,z)=q(v,z)+γE[ft+1(v+)],ft(v)=min⁡z≥0gt(v,z),fT+1=0,g_t(v, z) = q(v, z) + \gamma E\big[f_{t+1}(v_+)\big], \qquad f_t(v) = \min_{z \ge 0} g_t(v, z), \qquad f_{T+1} = 0,gt​(v,z)=q(v,z)+γE[ft+1​(v+​)],ft​(v)=z≥0min​gt​(v,z),fT+1​=0,

and the optimal policy zˉt(v)\bar z_t(v)zˉt​(v) is the smallest minimizer of gt(v,⋅)g_t(v, \cdot)gt​(v,⋅).

Assume 0<c+h<p+h0 < c + h < p + h0<c+h<p+h and set θˉ=(c+h)/(p+h)\bar\theta = (c + h)/(p + h)θˉ=(c+h)/(p+h). Let d[l,L]d_{[l,L]}d[l,L]​ be the total demand of periods t+l,…,t+Lt + l, \dots, t + Lt+l,…,t+L. The fractiles are

sˉl=min⁡{s:Pr⁡{d[l,L]>s}≤θˉ},l=0,…,L.\bar s_l = \min\{ s : \Pr\{ d_{[l,L]} > s \} \le \bar\theta \}, \qquad l = 0, \dots, L.sˉl​=min{s:Pr{d[l,L]​>s}≤θˉ},l=0,…,L.

Let V(sˉ)={v∈V:vl≤sˉl, l<L}V(\bar s) = \{ v \in V : v_l \le \bar s_l,\ l < L \}V(sˉ)={v∈V:vl​≤sˉl​, l<L}. The set Z(sˉ)Z(\bar s)Z(sˉ) consists of the policies with z(v)=0z(v) = 0z(v)=0 for v∉V(sˉ)v \notin V(\bar s)v∈/V(sˉ), and, for v∈V(sˉ)v \in V(\bar s)v∈V(sˉ), z(v)≤sˉLz(v) \le \bar s_Lz(v)≤sˉL​ and vl+z(v)≤sˉlv_l + z(v) \le \bar s_lvl​+z(v)≤sˉl​ for every l<Ll < Ll<L.

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 9 (Karlin–Scarf, Morton)

For every period t≤Tt \le Tt≤T and every v∈Vv \in Vv∈V, the smallest optimal order exists and

zˉt(v)∈Z(sˉ).\bar z_t(v) \in Z(\bar s).zˉt​(v)∈Z(sˉ).

Milestones

  1. (7), the closed form of Nahmias: y+L=z+[max⁡0≤l<L{vl−d[l,L)}]+y_{+L} = z + \big[\max_{0 \le l < L} \{ v_l - d_{[l,L)} \}\big]^+y+L​=z+[max0≤l<L​{vl​−d[l,L)​}]+, where d[l,L)d_{[l,L)}d[l,L)​ is the demand of periods t+l,…,t+L−1t + l, \dots, t + L - 1t+l,…,t+L−1.
  2. Lemma 6: the last-period policy zˉT(v)\bar z_T(v)zˉT​(v) is in Z(sˉ)Z(\bar s)Z(sˉ).
  3. Lemma 7: the last-period optimal cost fT(v)f_T(v)fT​(v) is nondecreasing in vvv.
  4. Proof of Theorem 8: gt(v,z)g_t(v, z)gt​(v,z) is convex in zzz.
  5. Theorem 8: for all t≤Tt \le Tt≤T, ft(v)f_t(v)ft​(v) is nondecreasing in vvv, and zˉt(v)≤zˉT(v)\bar z_t(v) \le \bar z_T(v)zˉt​(v)≤zˉT​(v).

The goal asserts the bounds as stated by the paper, with the fractiles left as functions of the demand law. It fixes no numerical constants.

Significance

The bounds turn a high-dimensional control problem into a box around the decision. The order is limited by the fractile sˉL\bar s_LsˉL​ of one-period demand, and also by every partial inventory position vlv_lvl​ against the fractile of (L−l+1)(L-l+1)(L−l+1)-period demand. They justify base-stock-like heuristics for lost-sales systems, restrict the search space in numerical dynamic programming, and are the starting point of the weighted bounds in Corollary 10 of the same paper. Monotonicity of the optimal cost in the pipeline (Theorem 8) is a structural fact used throughout the lost-sales literature.

The results are proved in the literature. To our knowledge none of them is machine-checked. A complete development adds a checked derivation of the classical bounds from first principles. It also adds reusable components: the closed form (7) for lost-sales dynamics, the fractile function for sums of i.i.d. demands, and a finite-horizon dynamic program over a continuum of actions in which the existence of a least minimizer is established rather than assumed.

Difficulty

The bound at the last period (Lemma 6) is a newsvendor-type argument once y+Ly_{+L}y+L​ is written in closed form. Propagating it backwards is harder. The tempting argument is that E[ft+1(v+)]E[f_{t+1}(v_+)]E[ft+1​(v+​)] only adds a cost that grows with zzz, so the optimal order can only shrink. That requires ft+1f_{t+1}ft+1​ to be nondecreasing in the state, which is not a property of the one-period cost alone. Monotonicity of ftf_tft​ in turn needs the minimization over zzz to preserve it, and the paper's argument for that uses convexity of gtg_tgt​ in zzz, which the paper derives from L♮L^\naturalL♮-convexity of the original recursion. Even Lemma 7, the last-period case, is proved on the page only for L=1L = 1L=1, through a convex-order comparison of the arriving inventory; the general case is asserted to be similar. The existence of a minimizer at every stage also has to be established, since the action set is unbounded and the value functions are defined as infima.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace ZipkinLostSales.Bounds. The conventions are these.

  • Periods. Periods are indexed by the number of periods to go k=T+1−tk = T + 1 - tk=T+1−t. fB M 0 is fT+1=0f_{T+1} = 0fT+1​=0, gB M k is gT−kg_{T-k}gT−k​, and fB M (k+1) is fT−kf_{T-k}fT−k​. By stationarity, "for all t≤Tt \le Tt≤T" becomes "for all k≥0k \ge 0k≥0", and t=Tt = Tt=T is k=0k = 0k=0, where gT=qg_T = qgT​=q.
  • Indexing. States are Fin L → ℝ, indexed from 0, with the paper's convention vL=0v_L = 0vL​=0. The fractiles sˉ0,…,sˉL\bar s_0, \dots, \bar s_Lsˉ0​,…,sˉL​ are indexed by Fin (L+1). "Nondecreasing in vvv" is monotonicity on VVV for the componentwise order.
  • The minimum over zzz. The paper's min⁡z≥0\min_{z \ge 0}minz≥0​ is an infimum over z≥0z \ge 0z≥0. Under the assumptions every q(v,z)q(v, z)q(v,z) with z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 is nonnegative, so the infimum is not a junk value.
  • The optimal policy. "The policy zˉt(v)\bar z_t(v)zˉt​(v)" is the least minimizer (IsLeast), following the tie-breaking rule on p. 938. Its existence is part of the goal, Lemma 6, and Theorem 8. The least minimizer is not defined as the sInf of the set of minimizers: that sInf is 000 when the set is empty, and 000 always lies in Z(sˉ)Z(\bar s)Z(sˉ), so that encoding would make the goal trivially true.
  • The fractiles. The minimum in (6) is an sInf. Under the assumptions the set is nonempty and bounded below, and the infimum is attained. d[l,L]d_{[l,L]}d[l,L]​ is the sum of coordinates j≥lj \ge lj≥l of L+1L + 1L+1 independent demands.
  • The arriving inventory. y+Ly_{+L}y+L​ is defined by iterating the on-hand dynamics yt+j+1=[yt+j−dt+j]++xj+1y_{t+j+1} = [y_{t+j} - d_{t+j}]^+ + x_{j+1}yt+j+1​=[yt+j​−dt+j​]++xj+1​. (7) is a theorem, not the definition.
  • Assumptions. These are bundled in Assumptions. The paper states L≥1L \ge 1L≥1, nonnegative independent demand, and 0<c+h<p+h0 < c + h < p + h0<c+h<p+h. Three readings are added: demand has finite mean, which makes q0q^0q0 finite; "unit cost" and "discount rate" are read as c,h^,p≥0c, \hat h, p \ge 0c,h^,p≥0 and 0<γ≤10 < \gamma \le 10<γ≤1; and "the dtd_tdt​ are independent" with stationary data is read as i.i.d. with one law. hhh may be negative.
  • §4 versus §2. Everything is stated for §4's re-accounted recursion. The paper identifies its optimal policy with that of §2 by "some algebra" that it does not display, and that identification is not formalized. The convexity milestone is posed directly for §4's gtg_tgt​ for the same reason.

A sorry-free check shows that the assumptions are jointly satisfiable, with L=1L = 1L=1, demand ≡1\equiv 1≡1, c=h^=1c = \hat h = 1c=h^=1, p=3p = 3p=3 and γ=1/2\gamma = 1/2γ=1/2. There sˉ=(2,1)\bar s = (2, 1)sˉ=(2,1), and the least optimal last-period order at v=0v = 0v=0 is 1∈Z(sˉ)1 \in Z(\bar s)1∈Z(sˉ).

A complete development needs:

  • product measures of i.i.d. demands and integrals against them;
  • convexity and monotonicity of expectations of piecewise-linear functions;
  • the right-continuity of the tail, so that the fractile is attained;
  • an existence argument for least minimizers of convex coercive functions on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞).

The closed form (7) and the fractile lemmas are reusable for other lost-sales and newsvendor missions. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome, as are auxiliary lemmas on measurability and integrability of the value functions.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, On the Structure of Lost-Sales Inventory Models, Operations Research 56(4), 937–944, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0482
  • S. Karlin, H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in Arrow, Karlin, Scarf (eds.), Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Chapter 10, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the solution of the lagged optimal inventory equation with no demand backlogging and proportional costs, SIAM Review 11, 572–576, 1969.
  • S. Nahmias, Simple approximations for a variety of dynamic leadtime lost-sales inventory models, Operations Research 27, 904–924, 1979.
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Semidefinite Programming 2: If Every Step Lowers the Potential φ by δ > 0, Then After k ≥ (ν√n log(1/ε) + ψ(x⁽⁰⁾, Z⁽⁰⁾))/δ Steps the Duality Gap Is at Most ε Times Its Initial ValueResearch Paper

Motivation

Semidefinite programs optimize a linear objective while requiring an affine matrix to be positive semidefinite. They include familiar linear and quadratic optimization models and arise in engineering and combinatorial optimization. Vandenberghe and Boyd's survey develops their duality theory and describes interior point methods that work with primal and dual matrices simultaneously. The question in this mission is quantitative: if a method lowers a particular potential by a fixed amount at each step, how quickly does its primal-dual objective gap shrink? Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 49, 76–77.

The paper uses the potential to combine two kinds of progress. One term records the size of the duality gap; another records how far the current matrices are from a central pair. Decreasing the gap alone does not ensure the matrices remain well positioned for the next step, so the potential accounts for both quantities. Theorem 5.1 turns a per-step decrease in this scalar into an explicit bound on the gap after kkk steps. The theorem concerns any sequence meeting that decrease condition; it does not prescribe a particular search direction or step-selection algorithm. Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 76–77.

Setting

Fix a vector c∈Rmc\in\mathbb R^mc∈Rm and symmetric real n×nn\times nn×n matrices F0,F1,…,FmF_0,F_1,\ldots,F_mF0​,F1​,…,Fm​. For x∈Rmx\in\mathbb R^mx∈Rm, define the affine matrix

F(x)=F0+∑i=1mxiFi.F(x)=F_0+\sum_{i=1}^{m}x_iF_i.F(x)=F0​+i=1∑m​xi​Fi​.

The primal problem minimizes cTxc^TxcTx subject to F(x)⪰0F(x)\succeq0F(x)⪰0. A dual-feasible matrix ZZZ satisfies Z⪰0Z\succeq0Z⪰0 and Tr⁡(FiZ)=ci\operatorname{Tr}(F_iZ)=c_iTr(Fi​Z)=ci​ for every i=1,…,mi=1,\ldots,mi=1,…,m. Here ⪰0\succeq0⪰0 means positive semidefinite; ≻0\succ0≻0 means positive definite. The pair (x,Z)(x,Z)(x,Z) is strictly feasible if both F(x)≻0F(x)\succ0F(x)≻0 and Z≻0Z\succ0Z≻0, with the dual equations still satisfied. Section 4 also assumes that F1,…,FmF_1,\ldots,F_mF1​,…,Fm​ are linearly independent. Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 49, 63, 70.

For a feasible pair, the duality gap is the difference between the primal objective cTxc^TxcTx and the dual objective −Tr⁡(F0Z)-\operatorname{Tr}(F_0Z)−Tr(F0​Z). Equation (32) identifies it as

η=cTx+Tr⁡(F0Z)=Tr⁡(F(x)Z).\eta=c^Tx+\operatorname{Tr}(F_0Z)=\operatorname{Tr}(F(x)Z).η=cTx+Tr(F0​Z)=Tr(F(x)Z).

For a strictly feasible pair, define the deviation from centrality and the potential by

ψ(x,Z)=−log⁡det⁡(F(x)Z)+nlog⁡η−nlog⁡n,\psi(x,Z)=-\log\det(F(x)Z)+n\log\eta-n\log n,ψ(x,Z)=−logdet(F(x)Z)+nlogη−nlogn, φ(x,Z)=νn log⁡η+ψ(x,Z),ν≥1.\varphi(x,Z)=\nu\sqrt n\,\log\eta+\psi(x,Z),\qquad \nu\ge1.φ(x,Z)=νn​logη+ψ(x,Z),ν≥1.

The logarithm is natural. The matrix size nnn determines the n\sqrt nn​ factor; it is distinct from the number mmm of decision variables. These are the explicit formulas on p. 76, where the paper also expresses ψ\psiψ through a central pair. Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 64, 75–76.

Formalization targets

The first milestones establish the gap identity, the expanded determinant formula for φ\varphiφ, and nonnegativity of ψ\psiψ with its stated equality condition. The final milestone bounds the gap by the potential:

η≤exp⁡ ⁣(φ(x,Z)νn).\eta\le\exp\!\left(\frac{\varphi(x,Z)}{\nu\sqrt n}\right).η≤exp(νn​φ(x,Z)​).

For the goal, let (x(j),Z(j))(x^{(j)},Z^{(j)})(x(j),Z(j)), j=0,…,kj=0,\ldots,kj=0,…,k, be strictly feasible pairs and suppose a fixed δ>0\delta>0δ>0 gives the decrease stated in equation (56) at every step j<kj<kj<k:

φ(x(j+1),Z(j+1))≤φ(x(j),Z(j))−δ.\varphi(x^{(j+1)},Z^{(j+1)})\le\varphi(x^{(j)},Z^{(j)})-\delta.φ(x(j+1),Z(j+1))≤φ(x(j),Z(j))−δ.

The goal theorem, Theorem 5.1, says that for 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1 and

k≥νnlog⁡(1/ε)+ψ(x(0),Z(0))δ,k\ge\frac{\nu\sqrt n\log(1/\varepsilon)+\psi(x^{(0)},Z^{(0)})}{\delta},k≥δνn​log(1/ε)+ψ(x(0),Z(0))​,

one has the boundary-correct gap estimate

Tr⁡(F(x(k))Z(k))≤εTr⁡(F(x(0))Z(0)).\operatorname{Tr}(F(x^{(k)})Z^{(k)})\le\varepsilon\operatorname{Tr}(F(x^{(0)})Z^{(0)}).Tr(F(x(k))Z(k))≤εTr(F(x(0))Z(0)).

The paper prints a strict inequality in the last display. Its stated non-strict threshold permits equality, as explained under Formalization scope. Vandenberghe and Boyd, p. 77, (56) and Theorem 5.1.

Significance

The theorem converts a local numerical guarantee into a global bound on an optimization certificate. Because the gap is the difference between primal and dual objectives, shrinking it gives a quantitative measure of progress toward optimality for every strictly feasible iterate. The expression records the dependence on matrix size, desired relative gap, starting deviation, and guaranteed potential decrease. It leaves the mechanism that achieves the decrease open, so different potential reduction methods can use the same conclusion. Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 64, 76–77.

The target here is a machine-checked statement and proof of this known 1996 result, together with its four supporting facts. The draft declarations compile as statements; their proofs remain open. A complete development would make the determinant, trace, positive-definiteness, and sequence reasoning reusable for other matrix optimization arguments. It would also record the boundary correction precisely rather than carrying forward a strict sign that fails at equality.

Difficulty

The substantive matrix claim is ψ(x,Z)≥0\psi(x,Z)\ge0ψ(x,Z)≥0. The product F(x)ZF(x)ZF(x)Z need not be symmetric, even though both factors are positive definite, so directly applying a result about symmetric matrix eigenvalues to the product is not automatic. The nonnegativity and its equality case must respect the positivity and determinant conventions used by the explicit formula. The later exponential bound and iteration statement depend on those facts and on keeping each logarithm in its positive domain. Vandenberghe and Boyd, p. 76.

Formalization scope

Lean uses Fin m for the mmm variable matrices, indexed from zero, with F0F_0F0​ as a separate argument; Fin n indexes matrix rows and columns. Matrix.IsHermitian represents real symmetry. Matrix.PosSemidef and Matrix.PosDef represent the paper's matrix inequalities ⪰0\succeq0⪰0 and ≻0\succ0≻0, including symmetry. The matrix size satisfies n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Traces, determinants, natural logarithms, and n\sqrt nn​ are the corresponding Mathlib operations. All statements involving ψ\psiψ or φ\varphiφ require strict feasibility, so the real logarithm's default value on nonpositive inputs cannot decide a theorem. The paper's linearly independent F1,…,FmF_1,\ldots,F_mF1​,…,Fm​ are an explicit hypothesis on the Section 4 and 5 statements. Vandenberghe and Boyd, pp. 49, 70, 76–77.

The definition of ψ\psiψ uses the explicit second formula on p. 76. The central pair in the preceding formula is not represented; its existence is introduced on p. 75 without a proof there. The p. 76 prose describes ψ≥0\psi\ge0ψ≥0 for feasible pairs, but its finite real logarithmic formula and the potential reduction iterates use strictly feasible pairs. The milestone states that domain explicitly. In Theorem 5.1 strict feasibility is assumed for the iterates j=0,…,kj=0,\ldots,kj=0,…,k and equation (56) for the steps j<kj<kj<k only, so the statement covers a method that stops after kkk steps. The fixed δ\deltaδ is positive, and ν≥1\nu\ge1ν≥1 and 0<ε<10<\varepsilon<10<ε<1 are explicit.

The paper's strict conclusion is false at its own inclusive threshold. Take m=n=1m=n=1m=n=1, F0=0F_0=0F0​=0, F1=c=Z(j)=1F_1=c=Z^{(j)}=1F1​=c=Z(j)=1, x(j)=e−jx^{(j)}=e^{-j}x(j)=e−j, ν=δ=1\nu=\delta=1ν=δ=1, and ε=e−1\varepsilon=e^{-1}ε=e−1. Then ψ=0\psi=0ψ=0, each decrease is exactly one, and at k=1k=1k=1 the gap equals ε\varepsilonε times its initial value. The goal therefore uses ≤\le≤, the strongest statement valid at the printed threshold. This correction is recorded in the theorem's description and moderation notes. Vandenberghe and Boyd, p. 77, Theorem 5.1.

A complete proof needs Mathlib's matrix order, determinant and trace identities, logarithm and exponential facts, and an arithmetic-geometric mean statement for positive eigenvalues. Matrix lemmas and the deviation inequality are welcome contributions alongside the final sequence bound. The definitions preserve the paper's full potential and feasible domain; replacing ψ\psiψ by zero or dropping the n\sqrt nn​ factor would change the target.

Selected references

  • Lieven Vandenberghe and Stephen Boyd, Semidefinite Programming, SIAM Review 38(1), 49–95, 1996. DOI: 10.1137/1038003.
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Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems 2: The Optimal Discounted Cost Is Nondecreasing in the Lead Time, and System L − 1 Bounds System L Through (6)Research Paper

Motivation

In a periodic-review inventory system, an order placed today arrives only after a lead time of LLL periods. When unmet demand is lost rather than backlogged, the optimal ordering problem is a dynamic program whose state records the stock on hand and every order still in the pipeline. The problem goes back to Karlin and Scarf (1958) and Morton (1969, 1971). It is computationally difficult because the state dimension grows with the lead time, and few structural facts about how the optimal cost depends on the system's parameters are known.

Zipkin (2008), Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems, states one such fact in its abstract: the optimal cost is increasing in the lead time. Section 5 of the paper makes this precise for the discounted cost by comparing the system with lead time LLL to the one with lead time L−1L-1L−1, and derives from the comparison a lower bound, (6), on the cost of the longer system in terms of the solution of the shorter one. The paper uses that bound to start the computation of system LLL from the solution of system L−1L-1L−1, and reports it in the "Bound" rows of its numerical tables. The paper also remarks that the argument applies to any system with control lag.

Setting

The state of the system with lead time L≥1L \ge 1L≥1 is x=(x0,…,xL−1)x = (x_0, \dots, x_{L-1})x=(x0​,…,xL−1​): x0x_0x0​ is the stock on hand after this period's arrival, and xlx_lxl​ is the order that arrives lll periods from now. With an order z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 and a demand ddd, the next state is

x+=([x0−d]++x1, x2, …, xL−1, z),x_+ = \bigl([x_0 - d]^+ + x_1,\ x_2,\ \dots,\ x_{L-1},\ z\bigr),x+​=([x0​−d]++x1​, x2​, …, xL−1​, z),

and demand in excess of x0x_0x0​ is lost. Demands are independent with a common law DDD on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) with finite mean.

The costs are a unit procurement cost c≥0c \ge 0c≥0, a unit holding cost h^≥0\hat h \ge 0h^≥0, a unit lost-sales penalty p≥0p \ge 0p≥0 and a discount factor γ∈[0,1)\gamma \in [0,1)γ∈[0,1). After the paper's standard transformation, the holding cost becomes h=h^−γch = \hat h - \gamma ch=h^−γc and the cost charged to the current order is

q0(y)=cy+hE[[y−d]+]+pE[[y−d]−],ql(xl)=γlE[q0(y+l)],q^0(y) = cy + hE\bigl[[y-d]^+\bigr] + pE\bigl[[y-d]^-\bigr], \qquad q^l(x^l) = \gamma^l E\bigl[q^0(y_{+l})\bigr],q0(y)=cy+hE[[y−d]+]+pE[[y−d]−],ql(xl)=γlE[q0(y+l​)],

where xl=(x0,…,xl)x^l = (x_0,\dots,x_l)xl=(x0​,…,xl​) and y+ly_{+l}y+l​ is the stock on hand lll periods later. The one-period cost of system LLL is q(x,z)=qL(x,z)q(x,z) = q^L(x,z)q(x,z)=qL(x,z). Writing x+l−1=([x0−d]++x1,x2,…,xl)x_+^{l-1} = ([x_0-d]^+ + x_1, x_2, \dots, x_l)x+l−1​=([x0​−d]++x1​,x2​,…,xl​) for the first lll components of the next state, the costs satisfy the recursion ql(xl)=γE[ql−1(x+l−1)]q^l(x^l) = \gamma E[q^{l-1}(x_+^{l-1})]ql(xl)=γE[ql−1(x+l−1​)].

The optimal cost f∗Lf^{*L}f∗L is the limit of the finite-horizon costs of recursion (2),

ft(x)=min⁡z≥0{q(x,z)+γE[ft+1(x+)]},fT+1=0,f_t(x) = \min_{z\ge0}\bigl\{q(x,z) + \gamma E[f_{t+1}(x_+)]\bigr\}, \qquad f_{T+1} = 0,ft​(x)=z≥0min​{q(x,z)+γE[ft+1​(x+​)]},fT+1​=0,

as the horizon TTT grows. It satisfies the optimality equation (3), f(x)=min⁡z≥0{q(x,z)+γE[f(x+)]}f(x) = \min_{z\ge 0}\{q(x,z)+\gamma E[f(x_+)]\}f(x)=minz≥0​{q(x,z)+γE[f(x+​)]}.

Formalization targets

Goal: lead-time comparison and the bound (6)

For L≥2L \ge 2L≥2, every state xL−1≥0x^{L-1} \ge 0xL−1≥0 of system LLL, and xL−2x^{L-2}xL−2 the state of system L−1L-1L−1 obtained by dropping the most recent order,

f∗L−1(xL−2)≤qL−1(xL−1)+f∗L(xL−1)f^{*L-1}(x^{L-2}) \le q^{L-1}(x^{L-1}) + f^{*L}(x^{L-1})f∗L−1(xL−2)≤qL−1(xL−1)+f∗L(xL−1)

and

f∗L(xL−1)≥γE[f∗L−1(x+L−2)].(6)f^{*L}(x^{L-1}) \ge \gamma E\bigl[f^{*L-1}(x_+^{L-2})\bigr]. \tag{6}f∗L(xL−1)≥γE[f∗L−1(x+L−2​)].(6)

The first inequality is the formal content of "the system cost is nondecreasing in LLL" in the discounted case: the systems live on state spaces of different dimension, and system L−1L-1L−1 pays one extra period cost qL−1(xL−1)q^{L-1}(x^{L-1})qL−1(xL−1) before system LLL starts to accumulate costs. The second is the bound the paper uses numerically.

Milestones

  1. The recursion ql(xl)=γE[ql−1(x+l−1)]q^l(x^l) = \gamma E[q^{l-1}(x_+^{l-1})]ql(xl)=γE[ql−1(x+l−1​)] (§2, p. 1257).
  2. The optimal cost satisfies the optimality equation (3) (p. 1257), the minimum over z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 is attained when c>0c > 0c>0 or h^>0\hat h > 0h^>0, and f∗Lf^{*L}f∗L is the least nonnegative solution.

A further statement, not a milestone, records that f∗L(x)<∞f^{*L}(x) < \inftyf∗L(x)<∞ for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, the discounted analogue of the paper's remark (p. 1256) that the optimal lost-sales cost is bounded when mean demand is finite.

Significance

The result. Monotonicity in the lead time is a basic comparative-statics fact about lost-sales systems that is not obvious from the dynamic program, because the two systems have state spaces of different dimension. Inequality (6) turns it into a computational tool: the solution of system L−1L-1L−1 yields a lower bound for system LLL, which can be used to warm-start value iteration for the larger system and to certify the quality of heuristics.

The formalization. The results are proved in the paper, informally and in a few lines; none of them has a machine-checked proof. A formal development requires making the paper's coupling argument (system L−1L-1L−1 placing, one period ahead, the order system LLL places now) precise as an inequality between value functions on spaces of different dimension. The optimality equation for a dynamic program with a continuous state space and an unbounded action set z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 is a reusable result for other inventory models with the same structure.

Difficulty

The paper's argument constructs a non-Markovian policy for system L−1L-1L−1 from an optimal policy of system LLL. Turned into a statement about value functions, the policy-based argument needs a theory of history-dependent policies and their costs that the definitions here deliberately avoid: the optimal cost is defined through the operator of (2), not as an infimum over policies. Either that theory is built, or the comparison has to be expressed directly between value functions on two state spaces of different dimension, where the extra order of system LLL has no counterpart in system L−1L-1L−1.

The optimality equation (3) is not automatic either. Showing that the limit of value iteration is a fixed point requires interchanging an infimum over the noncompact set z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 with an increasing limit; for a general monotone operator with a noncompact action set the interchange fails, so the lost-sales structure has to be used.

Formalization scope

The Lean development lives in the namespace LostSalesOldNew.LeadTime. Its conventions:

  • States of system LLL are Fin L → ℝ; xL=(x,z)x^L = (x,z)xL=(x,z) is Fin.snoc x z; xL−2x^{L-2}xL−2 is Fin.init x (dropping the most recent order, not the oldest); shift x d is x+l−1x_+^{l-1}x+l−1​ and next x z d is the full transition. The goal is stated with lead times n=L−1≥1n = L-1 \ge 1n=L−1≥1 and n+1n+1n+1, so no natural-number subtraction occurs.
  • Demand is a probability measure D on ℝ with D (Iio 0) = 0 and finite mean (Integrable id D); the demands of several periods have the product law Measure.pi. The paper's i.i.d. assumption is encoded this way.
  • The sign conditions c,h^,p≥0c, \hat h, p \ge 0c,h^,p≥0 and 0≤γ<10 \le \gamma < 10≤γ<1 are fields of the cost structure. The paper leaves the signs implicit; γ<1\gamma < 1γ<1 is its condition for (3).
  • The optimal cost f∗Lf^{*L}f∗L is defined as sup⁡nTn0\sup_n T^n 0supn​Tn0, the limit of the finite-horizon costs of (2). The paper calls f∗f^*f∗ "the solution" of (3) and asserts uniqueness without naming a function class; uniqueness in such a class is not formalized, and the milestone states instead that f∗Lf^{*L}f∗L is the least nonnegative solution. That f∗Lf^{*L}f∗L solves (3) is a milestone, not a definition.
  • Optimal costs take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞], with expectations of value functions as lower Lebesgue integrals and qqq embedded by ENNReal.ofReal; this is exact on nonnegative states because q≥0q \ge 0q≥0 there under the sign conditions. The paper's min⁡\minmin is an infimum over z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 in the operator, and its attainment is a separate clause of the milestone, stated under c>0c > 0c>0 or h^>0\hat h > 0h^>0 (with c=h^=0c = \hat h = 0c=h^=0 and unbounded demand the minimum is not attained); negative orders are excluded. The first goal inequality is kept in additive form, since subtraction in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] truncates.
  • States satisfy x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 in every theorem.

A trivializing reading is ruled out: the goal is not stated as (6) alone, which would drop the monotonicity claim, and the separate finiteness statement shows that the inequalities compare finite numbers rather than holding because one side is ∞\infty∞.

The average-cost version of §5 is not formalized (it presupposes an average-cost optimal policy), nor is uniqueness in (3) beyond minimality. Related platform formulations of the lost-sales system, such as CappedBaseStock_Model (Xin's capped base-stock analysis), use another state convention, an empty initial pipeline and the average-cost criterion, so they are not referenced. Contributions welcome: the recursion for qlq^lql (a Fubini computation over product measures), the optimality equation, the finiteness bound, and the goal.

Selected references

  • P. Zipkin, Old and New Methods for Lost-Sales Inventory Systems, Operations Research 56(5):1256–1263, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0471
  • S. Karlin, H. Scarf, Inventory models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak type with time lag, in Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the solution of the lagged optimal inventory equation with no demand backlogging and proportional costs, SIAM Review 11(4):572–596, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1137/1011090
  • T. E. Morton, The near-myopic nature of the lagged-proportional-cost inventory problem with lost sales, Operations Research 19(7):1708–1716, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.19.7.1708
  • G. Janakiraman, R. O. Roundy, Lost-sales problems with stochastic lead times: convexity results for base-stock policies, Operations Research 52(5):795–803, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0130
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Graph TheoryOperations ResearchProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Stability Properties of Constrained Queueing Systems and Scheduling Policies for Maximum Throughput in Multihop Radio Networks II: Outside C̄′ the Queues Grow to Infinity a.s. under Every PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

In a multihop radio network, links that are close to each other interfere, so only certain sets of links can transmit in the same time slot. Tassiulas and Ephremides (IEEE TAC 1992) modelled this as a constrained queueing system and asked which arrival rates any scheduler can sustain. Their answer has two halves. The first, Theorem 3.2, shows that a maximum-weight ("back-pressure") policy stabilizes the network for every rate vector in an explicit region C′C'C′, and that no stationary policy does better than its closure. The second, Theorem 4.1 and the subject of this mission, removes the restriction to stationary policies: outside the closure Cˉ′\bar C'Cˉ′, every scheduler, however it uses the past, lets the queues grow without bound almost surely.

The pair of results is the origin of throughput-optimal scheduling in wireless and switched networks: max-weight scheduling in input-queued switches, back-pressure routing, and the Lyapunov-drift framework of network utility maximization all start from this region and this converse. The converse is what makes "throughput-optimal" a meaningful claim: it certifies that Cˉ′\bar C'Cˉ′ is a hard limit, not merely the limit of one policy class.

Setting

There are LLL queues and NNN servers (links). Server iii serves queue q(i)q(i)q(i) and sends each served customer to a queue h(i)h(i)h(i) or out of the system. Time is slotted and a service takes one slot. An activation set is a set of servers that may be active in the same slot; the constraint set SSS is the family of all activation sets, and assumption C.1 says that every subset of an activation set is an activation set. The activation vector of a set ccc is its indicator vector in {0,1}N\{0,1\}^N{0,1}N, and co(S)\mathrm{co}(S)co(S) is the convex hull of the activation vectors.

A history-dependent policy π∈G~\pi\in\tilde Gπ∈G~ chooses, at the start of slot ttt, an activation set E(t)∈SE(t)\in SE(t)∈S as a function of the queue-length vectors X(0),…,X(t−1)X(0),\dots,X(t-1)X(0),…,X(t−1), never activating more servers of a queue than it has customers. The queue lengths evolve by

Xl(t)=Xl(t−1)−#{i∈E(t):q(i)=l}+#{i∈E(t):h(i)=l}+Al(t),X_l(t)=X_l(t-1)-\#\{i\in E(t):q(i)=l\}+\#\{i\in E(t):h(i)=l\}+A_l(t),Xl​(t)=Xl​(t−1)−#{i∈E(t):q(i)=l}+#{i∈E(t):h(i)=l}+Al​(t),

where the arrivals Al(t)A_l(t)Al​(t) are i.i.d. over ttt, independent across queues, with finite second moments and means ala_lal​.

The routing matrix RRR has rli=1r_{li}=1rli​=1 if h(i)=lh(i)=lh(i)=l and rli=−1r_{li}=-1rli​=−1 if q(i)=lq(i)=lq(i)=l. A vector f≥0f\ge0f≥0 indexed by servers is an aaa-admissible flow if a=−Rfa=-Rfa=−Rf. The region C′C'C′ is the set of a≥0a\ge0a≥0 that admit such a flow and a point c∈co(S)c\in\mathrm{co}(S)c∈co(S) with fi<cif_i<c_ifi​<ci​ wherever fi>0f_i>0fi​>0 and fi=0f_i=0fi​=0 wherever ci=0c_i=0ci​=0.

The proof uses the flow network NafN_{af}Naf​: the queues plus an originator ooo and a terminal ddd, an edge (o,l)(o,l)(o,l) of capacity ala_lal​ for every queue, and an edge of capacity fkf_kfk​ from q(k)q(k)q(k) to h(k)h(k)h(k) (or to ddd) for every server kkk. A cut is a set WWW of queues on the originator's side; its capacity CafC_{af}Caf​ is the total capacity of the edges leaving W∪{o}W\cup\{o\}W∪{o}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

a∉Cˉ′ ⟹ lim⁡t→∞∑l=1LXl(t)=∞a.s., for every π∈G~ and every initial state.a\notin\bar C'\ \Longrightarrow\ \lim_{t\to\infty}\sum_{l=1}^L X_l(t)=\infty\quad\text{a.s., for every }\pi\in\tilde G\text{ and every initial state.}a∈/Cˉ′ ⟹ t→∞lim​l=1∑L​Xl​(t)=∞a.s., for every π∈G~ and every initial state.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. Lemma A.1: under C.1, c∈co(S)c\in\mathrm{co}(S)c∈co(S) and 0≤x≤c0\le x\le c0≤x≤c imply x∈co(S)x\in\mathrm{co}(S)x∈co(S).
  2. Lemma 3.1 (one class, unit service): Cˉ′={a≥0:∃f∈Fa, c∈co(S), f≤c}\bar C'=\{a\ge0:\exists f\in F_a,\ c\in\mathrm{co}(S),\ f\le c\}Cˉ′={a≥0:∃f∈Fa​, c∈co(S), f≤c}.
  3. Lemma 4.1: if a∉Cˉ′a\notin\bar C'a∈/Cˉ′, the maximum over f∈co(S)f\in\mathrm{co}(S)f∈co(S) of the mincut capacity of NafN_{af}Naf​ is attained and is strictly below ∑lal\sum_l a_l∑l​al​.
  4. Corollary 4.1: there is one ϵ>0\epsilon>0ϵ>0 such that ∑l∈Wafal−ϵ\sum_{l\in W_{af}}a_l-\epsilon∑l∈Waf​​al​−ϵ bounds the server capacity leaving WafW_{af}Waf​, for every f∈co(S)f\in\mathrm{co}(S)f∈co(S) and every mincut.
  5. (4.7), pathwise: ∑lXl(t)≥min⁡Q∑τ=1t(∑l∈Q(Al(τ)−al)+ϵ)\sum_l X_l(t)\ge\min_{Q}\sum_{\tau=1}^t\big(\sum_{l\in Q}(A_l(\tau)-a_l)+\epsilon\big)∑l​Xl​(t)≥minQ​∑τ=1t​(∑l∈Q​(Al​(τ)−al​)+ϵ) for every policy and every arrival sequence.
  6. (4.12): each of these 2L2^L2L partial sums tends to +∞+\infty+∞ almost surely.

Significance

Theorem 4.1 closes the characterization of the throughput region of a constrained queueing network. With Theorem 3.2 it says that the set of sustainable rates is C′C'C′ up to its boundary, for all policies and not only stationary ones, and that allowing schedules to depend on the entire history, on time, or on long-range planning cannot enlarge it. Every later throughput-optimality result for max-weight-type policies in switches and wireless networks cites this converse, and the region co(S)\mathrm{co}(S)co(S) of "average activation vectors" is the standard capacity region of interference-constrained networks.

The result has been proved since 1992 and has not, to our knowledge, been machine-checked. A formalization adds a precise statement of the policy class G~\tilde GG~ (history-dependent, non-anticipating, never serving empty queues), a sample-path inequality (4.7) that is independent of probability and reusable for any arrival model, and a cut-based description of Cˉ′\bar C'Cˉ′ through Lemma 4.1 and Corollary 4.1.

Difficulty

The obvious argument fails at the policy class. For a stationary policy the queue-length process is a Markov chain and an instability argument can use its ergodic behaviour; a history-dependent policy has no such structure, and the time-average activation vector λ(t)=1t∑τ≤tE(τ)\lambda(t)=\frac1t\sum_{\tau\le t}E(\tau)λ(t)=t1​∑τ≤t​E(τ) wanders in co(S)\mathrm{co}(S)co(S) without converging. The argument must therefore find, for every possible average λ\lambdaλ, a set of queues whose net inflow exceeds its outflow by a margin that does not depend on λ\lambdaλ. That uniformity is the content of Lemma 4.1 and Corollary 4.1: it needs the max-flow/min-cut theorem on NafN_{af}Naf​, the continuity of the mincut capacity in fff, the compactness of co(S)\mathrm{co}(S)co(S), and Lemma A.1 to bring a maximum flow back into co(S)\mathrm{co}(S)co(S). Comparing ∑lal\sum_l a_l∑l​al​ with the total service capacity, or using a single fixed cut, does not work: the bottleneck set of queues depends on how the policy spreads its activations.

Formalization scope

Queues are Fin L and servers Fin N, indexed from 0. A server's destination is Option (Fin L), none meaning out of the system. SSS is a Set (Finset (Fin N)); C.1 is a predicate, and every theorem that needs it also assumes ∅∈S\emptyset\in S∅∈S (otherwise SSS may be empty and no policy exists). Rate vectors are Fin L → ℝ, and C′C'C′ includes a≥0a\ge0a≥0. Service times are one slot, so M=IM=IM=I. The goal's hypothesis is a∉Cˉ′a\notin\bar C'a∈/Cˉ′ with C′C'C′ defined from flows, as in the introduction of §IV; the printed theorem uses the closure of the stability region CCC, which equals Cˉ′\bar C'Cˉ′ by Theorem 3.2 of the paper. A policy is a function from the history X(0),…,X(t)X(0),\dots,X(t)X(0),…,X(t) to the activation set of slot t+1t+1t+1, required to choose sets in SSS and to activate no more servers of a queue than it has customers; the queue dynamics are written in N\mathbb NN, where this requirement makes the subtraction exact. Arrivals are random vectors in NL\mathbb N^LNL, i.i.d. in time (iIndepFun, IdentDistrib), independent across queues, with integrable squares; aaa is their mean, not a free parameter.

The statement does not hold vacuously: a one-queue, one-server example with constant arrivals of two customers per slot satisfies every hypothesis of the goal, including the existence of runs, and lies outside Cˉ′\bar C'Cˉ′ (checked in a sanity file). A formalization in which policies may see future arrivals, or may serve empty queues, or in which aaa is unrelated to the arrival law, is a different theorem.

A complete development needs: the max-flow/min-cut theorem for finite networks with parallel edges (posed elsewhere on the platform in other encodings, not proved), continuity of a minimum of finitely many linear functions, compactness of a convex hull of finitely many points, and Mathlib's strong law of large numbers. The pathwise bound (4.7) and the cut lemmas are reusable for any interference-constrained network. Proofs of any milestone, and alternative routes to Lemma 4.1 (for instance through linear-programming duality), are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Tassiulas and A. Ephremides, Stability properties of constrained queueing systems and scheduling policies for maximum throughput in multihop radio networks, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 37(12):1936–1948, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1109/9.182479
  • C. H. Papadimitriou and K. Steiglitz, Combinatorial Optimization: Algorithms and Complexity, Prentice-Hall, 1982 (reference [17] of the paper, for the max-flow/min-cut theorem).
  • L. R. Ford and D. R. Fulkerson, Maximal flow through a network, Canadian Journal of Mathematics 8:399–404, 1956. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1956-045-5
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Machine LearningMarkov ChainProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

An Analysis of Temporal-Difference Learning with Function Approximation 2: For Every Sampling Distribution q and 5/6 < α < 1, Off-Line q-Sampled TD(0) Can Diverge in ExpectationResearch Paper

Motivation

Temporal-difference learning estimates the future cost of a system from observed transitions. In a Markov model, a state has a distribution of possible successors and each transition carries a cost. An agent may approximate the future cost with a small number of basis functions rather than store one number per state. This is useful when the state set is large or countably infinite, but the sampling rule then matters: the states used to update the approximation need not arrive in the same proportions as visits to the underlying Markov chain.

Tsitsiklis and Van Roy distinguish sampling along the chain from drawing current states independently from a chosen distribution qqq. Their 1996 LIDS report, §9 constructs an example where the latter version of TD(0) has a mean parameter vector whose norm grows without bound. The example applies to every sampling distribution qqq on a countable state space with at least two states and every discount factor α\alphaα strictly between 5/65/65/6 and 111. The mission formalizes that quantified counterexample, rather than selecting a particular two-state distribution.

Setting

Let SSS be a finite or countably infinite set of states. A transition matrix PPP assigns a probability distribution pijp_{ij}pij​ over next states jjj to each current state iii. A transition cost g(i,j)g(i,j)g(i,j) is incurred when the chain moves from iii to jjj, and 0<α<10<\alpha<10<α<1 discounts later costs. The cost-to-go J∗(i)J^*(i)J∗(i) is the expected sum of discounted costs along a chain started at iii. An invariant distribution π\piπ satisfies πTP=πT\pi^{\mathsf T}P=\pi^{\mathsf T}πTP=πT.

A feature vector ϕ(i)∈RK\phi(i)\in\mathbb R^Kϕ(i)∈RK represents an approximate cost ϕ(i)Tr\phi(i)^{\mathsf T}rϕ(i)Tr, where r∈RKr\in\mathbb R^Kr∈RK is learned. The weighted norm ∥J∥D\|J\|_D∥J∥D​ uses the weights π(i)\pi(i)π(i), and Π\PiΠ projects onto the span of the features in that norm. The one-step operator T(0)T^{(0)}T(0) sends JJJ to the expected immediate cost plus α\alphaα times the next-state value. These are the objects of §§2–4 of the report.

In qqq-sampled TD(0), each current state ItI_tIt​ is drawn independently from a probability distribution qqq; a successor JtJ_tJt​ is then drawn from row P(It,⋅)P(I_t,\cdot)P(It​,⋅). Each new pair is independent of the earlier pairs. The parameter changes by

rt+1=rt+γtϕ(It)[g(It,Jt)+αϕ(Jt)Trt−ϕ(It)Trt].r_{t+1}=r_t+\gamma_t\phi(I_t)\left[g(I_t,J_t)+\alpha\phi(J_t)^{\mathsf T}r_t-\phi(I_t)^{\mathsf T}r_t\right].rt+1​=rt​+γt​ϕ(It​)[g(It​,Jt​)+αϕ(Jt​)Trt​−ϕ(It​)Trt​].

The step sizes γt\gamma_tγt​ satisfy the report's Assumption 4: they are chosen in advance, nonnegative and nonincreasing, their sum diverges, and the sum of their squares converges. Assumption 1 asks for a unique positive invariant law, finite stationary second moment of the transition costs, and finite cost-to-go from each state. Assumption 2 asks for linearly independent features with finite stationary second moments.

Formalization targets

Divergence of the mean

For every qqq and 5/6<α<15/6<\alpha<15/6<α<1, Theorem 3 asserts the existence of PPP, ggg, and a feature map satisfying Assumptions 1 and 2, together with a unique projected fixed-point parameter r∗r^*r∗, such that for every r0≠r∗r_0\ne r^*r0​=r∗,

ΠT(0)(ϕTr)=ϕTr  ⟺  r=r∗,lim⁡t→∞∥E[rt∣r0]∥=∞.\Pi T^{(0)}(\phi^{\mathsf T}r)=\phi^{\mathsf T}r\iff r=r^*, \qquad \lim_{t\to\infty}\bigl\|\mathbb E[r_t\mid r_0]\bigr\|=\infty.ΠT(0)(ϕTr)=ϕTr⟺r=r∗,t→∞lim​​E[rt​∣r0​]​=∞.

The expectation is over the independent state–successor samples. The target is the norm of the mean vector; it does not assert divergence of individual sample paths. The formal goal quantifies over every probability space carrying samples with the stated joint law, so a choice of representation for the random process does not change the theorem.

Supporting statements

The milestones follow the claims in the proof of Theorem 3, pp. 24–25: existence of a full-support transition distribution; the one-feature construction and its assumptions; the general and specialized recurrences for E[rt]\mathbb E[r_t]E[rt​]; a positive lower bound for their coefficient Δ\DeltaΔ; and unbounded growth from that lower bound. The numerical inequality retains the report's threshold 5/(6α)5/(6\alpha)5/(6α) and its explicit positive factor 6αp(s2)−56\alpha p(s_2)-56αp(s2​)−5.

Significance

The theorem identifies a limit of using TD(0) with linear approximation when the current states are sampled according to a distribution unrelated to the chain's invariant law. The constructed Markov chain itself has a well-defined zero cost-to-go, and the approximation uses only one nonzero feature direction. Nevertheless, the mean of the parameter sequence diverges for every nonfixed initialization. Thus the issue is present even without noisy costs or a complicated feature space. The report contrasts this with its convergence result for the on-line algorithm under additional assumptions; the counterexample says that those conclusions cannot be transferred to arbitrary independent state sampling by changing only the sample source. Tsitsiklis and Van Roy, §9.

The report proves Theorem 3 on paper. This mission asks for a machine-checked proof of its full quantifier structure, including countably infinite state spaces and arbitrary qqq. A completed development would supply reusable Lean interfaces for countable Markov kernels, path laws, weighted projections, independent state–successor samples, and expected stochastic recurrences. The proposal currently contains the statements and definitions; the theorem proofs are open.

Difficulty

The apparent simplicity of the one-dimensional example hides two issues. First, the statement is uniform over qqq, including distributions that put zero mass on nearly every state. A proof must choose the two feature states in response to qqq while preserving the strict positivity needed for growth. Second, the recurrence concerns E[rt]\mathbb E[r_t]E[rt​], where rtr_trt​ depends on all earlier random pairs. The step at time ttt uses a fresh pair, and the factorization of its mean requires that temporal independence, plus justified integrability. Writing a positive scalar coefficient alone does not establish divergence of the expected parameter sequence for the sampled process.

Formalization scope

The Lean state space is a countable discrete measurable type with at least two elements. PPP is a Markov kernel, its path law comes from the Ionescu–Tulcea construction, and the cost-to-go is the expectation of the discounted path sum. Weighted L2(S,D)L_2(S,D)L2​(S,D) membership is expressed by summability of π(i)J(i)2\pi(i)J(i)^2π(i)J(i)2. The projection uses the inverse of the weighted Gram matrix under the independence and positive-mass assumptions that make it invertible. Only T(0)T^{(0)}T(0) is needed here. The number KKK of basis functions is existential, like the report's matrix Φ\PhiΦ, but must be at least one: an empty parameter space would leave the universal divergence clause with no nonfixed initializations. The report's own example has K=1K=1K=1.

Assumption 1 includes uniqueness of π\piπ, positive mass at each state, the stationary squared-cost moment, and absolute integrability of the cost-to-go. Assumption 2 includes linear independence and integrability of squared features. Assumption 4 retains square-summability even though the displayed growth argument uses the divergent first-power sum. The general mean recurrence assumes bounded costs and features so its integrals and countable sums are meaningful; the constructed example satisfies those bounds. The goal additionally states finite-time integrability of the parameter vector. The source indexes states by 1 and 2; the formalization uses two distinct states s1,s2s_1,s_2s1​,s2​ and records the proof's ordering 0<q(s1)0<q(s_1)0<q(s1​) and q(s2)≤q(s1)q(s_2)\le q(s_1)q(s2​)≤q(s1​) in the growth milestone. The goal's quantification over probability spaces is restricted to Lean's Type universe.

The general mean recurrence is written with the immediate cost outside the matrix factor multiplying E[rt]\mathbb E[r_t]E[rt​]. This follows the algorithm displayed on p. 24 and corrects two slips in the printed recurrence on p. 25: its next-state subscript and the placement of the mean-cost term. Contributions to the path-law facts, independent-sampling calculations, countable weighted sums, and scalar growth theorem all support the same fixed goal.

Selected references

  • J. N. Tsitsiklis and B. Van Roy, An Analysis of Temporal-Difference Learning with Function Approximation, MIT Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems report LIDS-P-2322, 1996; published in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 42(5), 1997. MIT record.
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Convex OptimizationNumerical AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A D.C. Optimization Algorithm for Solving the Trust-Region Subproblem III: The DCA Step x^{k+1} = P_E(x^k − (Ax^k + b)/ρ) Is a Descent Method Whose Limit Points Are Kuhn–Tucker PointsResearch Paper

Motivation

The trust-region subproblem asks for the minimum of a quadratic function over a Euclidean ball,

(Q1)min⁡{12xTAx+bTx:∥x∥≤r},(Q_1)\qquad \min\Big\{\tfrac12 x^TAx + b^Tx : \|x\|\le r\Big\},(Q1​)min{21​xTAx+bTx:∥x∥≤r},

with AAA a real symmetric n×nn\times nn×n matrix that may be indefinite. It is solved at every iteration of a trust-region method for nonlinear optimization (Moré and Sorensen 1983; Conn, Gould and Toint 2000), so a method for it is used many thousands of times in a single run. Classical methods based on factorizations of A+λIA + \lambda IA+λI do not scale to large sparse problems.

Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An (SIAM J. Optim. 8 (1998)) apply to (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​) their DCA, a general algorithm for d.c. programs (minimizing a difference of two convex functions). For a suitable splitting of the objective, one DCA iteration is a matrix–vector product followed by a scaling onto the ball. This mission formalizes the convergence theorem for that iteration (Theorem 4.1 of the paper), together with the general DCA convergence results it is derived from (Theorem 3.7 and the Appendix).

Timeline (as recorded in the paper's introduction):

  • 1978: J. F. Toland develops the duality theory of d.c. optimization (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 66 (1978)).
  • 1988: Pham Dinh and Elbernoussi introduce the DCA based on this duality, in its subgradient form (reference [23] of the paper, Trends in Mathematical Optimization, Birkhäuser).
  • 1994: Le Thi's thesis and the authors' Rouen research report develop the DCA's convergence theory and large-scale implementations (references [7], [27] of the paper).
  • 1998: the present paper specializes the DCA to (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​), proves Theorem 4.1, and gives a restarting procedure that reaches a global solution.

Setting

Let X=RnX = \mathbb R^nX=Rn with inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥. For a function θ:X→R∪{+∞}\theta:X\to\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}θ:X→R∪{+∞}, dom⁡θ={x:θ(x)<+∞}\operatorname{dom}\theta = \{x:\theta(x)<+\infty\}domθ={x:θ(x)<+∞}, and Γ0(X)\Gamma_0(X)Γ0​(X) is the set of proper, lower semicontinuous, convex functions. For θ∈Γ0(X)\theta\in\Gamma_0(X)θ∈Γ0​(X) the conjugate is θ∗(y)=sup⁡x{⟨x,y⟩−θ(x)}\theta^*(y) = \sup_x\{\langle x,y\rangle-\theta(x)\}θ∗(y)=supx​{⟨x,y⟩−θ(x)}, and the subdifferential at x∈dom⁡θx\in\operatorname{dom}\thetax∈domθ is ∂θ(x)={y:θ(z)≥θ(x)+⟨z−x,y⟩ ∀z}\partial\theta(x) = \{y : \theta(z)\ge\theta(x)+\langle z-x,y\rangle\ \forall z\}∂θ(x)={y:θ(z)≥θ(x)+⟨z−x,y⟩ ∀z}. The function θ\thetaθ is ρ\rhoρ-convex (ρ≥0\rho\ge0ρ≥0) if θ−ρ2∥⋅∥2\theta-\frac\rho2\|\cdot\|^2θ−2ρ​∥⋅∥2 is convex.

A d.c. program is (P) α=inf⁡{g(x)−h(x):x∈X}(P)\ \alpha = \inf\{g(x)-h(x): x\in X\}(P) α=inf{g(x)−h(x):x∈X} with g,h∈Γ0(X)g,h\in\Gamma_0(X)g,h∈Γ0​(X), under the convention +∞−(+∞)=+∞+\infty-(+\infty)=+\infty+∞−(+∞)=+∞ and the standing inclusions dom⁡g⊂dom⁡h\operatorname{dom}g\subset\operatorname{dom}hdomg⊂domh, dom⁡h∗⊂dom⁡g∗\operatorname{dom}h^*\subset\operatorname{dom}g^*domh∗⊂domg∗. Its dual objective is h∗(y)−g∗(y)h^*(y)-g^*(y)h∗(y)−g∗(y). The simplified DCA builds two sequences from x0∈dom⁡gx^0\in\operatorname{dom}gx0∈domg:

yk∈∂h(xk),xk+1∈∂g∗(yk).y^k\in\partial h(x^k),\qquad x^{k+1}\in\partial g^*(y^k).yk∈∂h(xk),xk+1∈∂g∗(yk).

For (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​) let E={x:∥x∥≤r}E = \{x:\|x\|\le r\}E={x:∥x∥≤r} (r>0r>0r>0), χE\chi_EχE​ its indicator, and f(x)=12xTAx+bTx+χE(x)f(x) = \frac12x^TAx+b^Tx+\chi_E(x)f(x)=21​xTAx+bTx+χE​(x). Fix ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 with ρI−A\rho I-AρI−A positive semidefinite and split f=g−hf = g-hf=g−h as in (16):

g(x)=12ρ∥x∥2+bTx+χE(x),h(x)=12xT(ρI−A)x.g(x) = \tfrac12\rho\|x\|^2+b^Tx+\chi_E(x),\qquad h(x) = \tfrac12x^T(\rho I-A)x.g(x)=21​ρ∥x∥2+bTx+χE​(x),h(x)=21​xT(ρI−A)x.

The resulting DCA starts at any x0∈Rnx^0\in\mathbb R^nx0∈Rn and, with wk=(ρI−A)xk−bw^k = (\rho I-A)x^k-bwk=(ρI−A)xk−b, sets xk+1=wk/ρx^{k+1} = w^k/\rhoxk+1=wk/ρ if ∥wk∥≤ρr\|w^k\|\le\rho r∥wk∥≤ρr and xk+1=r wk/∥wk∥x^{k+1} = r\,w^k/\|w^k\|xk+1=rwk/∥wk∥ otherwise; equivalently xk+1=PE(xk−1ρ(Axk+b))x^{k+1} = P_E\big(x^k-\frac1\rho(Ax^k+b)\big)xk+1=PE​(xk−ρ1​(Axk+b)). A Kuhn–Tucker point of (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​) is an x∗x^*x∗ with some λ∗≥0\lambda^*\ge0λ∗≥0 such that (A+λ∗I)x∗=−b(A+\lambda^*I)x^* = -b(A+λ∗I)x∗=−b, λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0\lambda^*(\|x^*\|-r)=0λ∗(∥x∗∥−r)=0 and ∥x∗∥≤r\|x^*\|\le r∥x∗∥≤r.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 491)

For every run of the DCA,

f(xk+1)≤f(xk)−12(ρ+λ)∥xk+1−xk∥2,λ=λmin⁡(ρI−A),f(x^{k+1})\le f(x^k)-\tfrac12(\rho+\lambda)\|x^{k+1}-x^k\|^2,\qquad \lambda = \lambda_{\min}(\rho I-A),f(xk+1)≤f(xk)−21​(ρ+λ)∥xk+1−xk∥2,λ=λmin​(ρI−A),

f(xk)f(x^k)f(xk) decreases to a limit α′≥α\alpha'\ge\alphaα′≥α, ∥xk+1−xk∥→0\|x^{k+1}-x^k\|\to0∥xk+1−xk∥→0, and every limit point of {xk}\{x^k\}{xk} is a Kuhn–Tucker point.

Milestones

In attack order:

  1. (P_k): ∂g∗(y)\partial g^*(y)∂g∗(y) is the set of minimizers of g−⟨⋅,y⟩g-\langle\cdot,y\rangleg−⟨⋅,y⟩.
  2. (18)–(19): the DCA step solves (18), is the projection (19), and is a simplified-DCA step for (16).
  3. Proposition A.1(i): (g−h)(xk+1)≤(h∗−g∗)(yk)−ρ22∥dxk∥2≤(g−h)(xk)−ρ1+ρ22∥dxk∥2(g-h)(x^{k+1})\le(h^*-g^*)(y^k)-\frac{\rho_2}2\|dx^k\|^2\le(g-h)(x^k)-\frac{\rho_1+\rho_2}2\|dx^k\|^2(g−h)(xk+1)≤(h∗−g∗)(yk)−2ρ2​​∥dxk∥2≤(g−h)(xk)−2ρ1​+ρ2​​∥dxk∥2, with its equality case.
  4. Corollary A.2(i)–(ii): the same descent with the dual decrements.
  5. Lemma A.3: continuity of hhh along sequences with bounded subgradients.
  6. Theorem 3.7(i): the descent with maxima of the four weighted steps.
  7. Theorem 3.7(iii): if α\alphaα is finite, both objectives converge to a common β≥α\beta\ge\alphaβ≥α, the steps vanish, and the Fenchel–Young gaps tend to 000.
  8. Theorem 3.7(iv): with bounded iterates, limit points pair into (x∗,y∗)∈[∂g∗(y∗)∩∂h∗(y∗)]×[∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗)](x^*,y^*)\in[\partial g^*(y^*)\cap\partial h^*(y^*)]\times[\partial g(x^*)\cap\partial h(x^*)](x∗,y∗)∈[∂g∗(y∗)∩∂h∗(y∗)]×[∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗)].
  9. The moduli of (16): ρ(g)=ρ\rho(g)=\rhoρ(g)=ρ and ρ(h)=ρ−λn\rho(h)=\rho-\lambda_nρ(h)=ρ−λn​.
  10. (20): ∂h(x∗)⊂∂g(x∗)\partial h(x^*)\subset\partial g(x^*)∂h(x∗)⊂∂g(x∗) if and only if x∗x^*x∗ is a Kuhn–Tucker point.

The equality case of Theorem 3.7(i) and Theorem 3.7(ii) (the dual descent) are included as further draft theorems.

Significance

Theorem 4.1 makes the DCA a descent method for (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​) whose accumulation points satisfy the first-order conditions. That property is what the paper's restarting procedure (§4.2) builds on: at a Kuhn–Tucker point that is not a global minimizer, one eigenvector computation gives a better feasible point, and the DCA reaches a global solution after at most 2m+22m+22m+2 restarts, where mmm is the number of distinct negative eigenvalues of AAA. Theorem 3.7 is the convergence theorem for the DCA on general d.c. programs, used throughout the later DCA literature.

All of these results are proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of them has a machine-checked proof: Mathlib has convex conjugates and subdifferentials in pieces, but no d.c. duality, no DCA and no analysis of the trust-region subproblem. This mission produces that development: a statement layer for d.c. programming with extended values, a formal proof of the general descent and criticality theorem, and its specialization to (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​).

Difficulty

Every inequality of the analysis runs over R∪{+∞}\mathbb R\cup\{+\infty\}R∪{+∞}. The differences g−hg-hg−h and h∗−g∗h^*-g^*h∗−g∗ need the paper's convention +∞−(+∞)=+∞+\infty-(+\infty)=+\infty+∞−(+∞)=+∞, and the finiteness of each value along a run has to be derived from the standing inclusions. The hard step is the passage to limit points in Theorem 3.7(iv). Lower semicontinuity of ggg, g∗g^*g∗ and hhh gives only one-sided inequalities at a limit point, while the theorem asserts equalities of values there. The naive argument of passing to the limit in yk∈∂h(xk)y^k\in\partial h(x^k)yk∈∂h(xk) and xk+1∈∂g∗(yk)x^{k+1}\in\partial g^*(y^k)xk+1∈∂g∗(yk) fails, because xk+1x^{k+1}xk+1 and xkx^kxk need not have the same limit unless ρ1+ρ2>0\rho_1+\rho_2>0ρ1​+ρ2​>0. For (Q1)(Q_1)(Q1​) the specialization needs boundedness of the iterates, finiteness of α\alphaα, and the subdifferential of the indicator of the ball. None of these is a hypothesis of Theorem 4.1, so each must be proved from the run.

Formalization scope

XXX is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Extended values are EReal, and every d.c. difference is dcSub g h x, equal to +∞+\infty+∞ when g(x)=+∞g(x)=+\inftyg(x)=+∞ and to g(x)−h(x)g(x)-h(x)g(x)−h(x) otherwise, because Mathlib's EReal has ⊤−⊤=⊥\top-\top=\bot⊤−⊤=⊥. Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​, subgradients and the conjugate come from published platform definitions (IsProperClosedConvex, IsSubgradient, CondatPD.FinDim.conj). The modulus of strong convexity is never defined as a supremum. Statements take explicit constants ρ1,ρ2,ρ1∗,ρ2∗\rho_1,\rho_2,\rho_1^*,\rho_2^*ρ1​,ρ2​,ρ1∗​,ρ2∗​ with "fif_ifi​ is ρi\rho_iρi​-convex", which is what the paper requires of them. Hypotheses "ρ(g)+ρ(h)>0\rho(g)+\rho(h)>0ρ(g)+ρ(h)>0" become ρ1+ρ2>0\rho_1+\rho_2>0ρ1​+ρ2​>0. The matrix AAA is a self-adjoint continuous linear operator. "λ\lambdaλ is the smallest eigenvalue of ρI−A\rho I-AρI−A" is encoded by quantifying over every μ\muμ with ρI−A⪰μI\rho I-A\succeq\mu IρI−A⪰μI. A limit point is a cluster point. The objective fff is +∞+\infty+∞ outside EEE, and the run starts from an arbitrary x0x^0x0, as on the page. Statements involving dyk−1dy^{k-1}dyk−1 are for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. Theorem 3.7(iv)'s limit identity is stated along a common convergent subsequence, as in its proof.

Ruled out: the goal is stated for the explicit iteration a)/b) of p. 490, never for an abstract run assumed to satisfy Theorem 3.7, and it carries no hypothesis of boundedness, finite α\alphaα or convergence. A run predicate that no sequence satisfies would make everything vacuous, and a sanity file exhibits concrete runs.

Needed infrastructure: the Fenchel–Young equality and its equality case for Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ functions in EReal, subdifferential inversion y∈∂g(x)  ⟺  x∈∂g∗(y)y\in\partial g(x)\iff x\in\partial g^*(y)y∈∂g(x)⟺x∈∂g∗(y), strong-convexity versions of the subgradient inequality, and the normal cone of a Euclidean ball. These are reusable well beyond this mission and are welcome as separate contributions.

Selected references

  • Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An, A d.c. optimization algorithm for solving the trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim. 8(2):476–505, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623494274313
  • J. F. Toland, Duality in nonconvex optimization, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 66(2):399–415, 1978. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(78)90243-3
  • J. J. Moré and D. C. Sorensen, Computing a trust region step, SIAM J. Sci. Statist. Comput. 4(3):553–572, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/0904038
  • A. R. Conn, N. I. M. Gould and Ph. L. Toint, Trust-Region Methods, SIAM, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719857
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models II: The Logit Newsvendor's Expected Order and Expected Profit Are Partial Derivatives of the Log-Partition Function A(η₁, η₂)Research Paper

Motivation

The newsvendor problem is the basic model of a one-period inventory decision: a seller orders xxx units at unit cost ccc before a random demand DDD is observed, and sells min⁡(D,x)\min(D,x)min(D,x) units at unit price p>cp > cp>c. A perfectly rational newsvendor orders the critical fractile x∗=F−1(1−c/p)x^* = F^{-1}(1-c/p)x∗=F−1(1−c/p), where FFF is the distribution function of DDD. Laboratory experiments (Schweitzer and Cachon 2000; Bolton and Katok 2008) found that human subjects systematically deviate from x∗x^*x∗: their orders are noisy and, on average, pulled toward mean demand.

Su (2008) explains these patterns with a model of bounded rationality taken from the logit choice literature (Luce 1959; McFadden 1981). The decision maker does not pick the best order; instead each order is chosen with probability density proportional to the exponential of its expected profit, scaled by a noise parameter β>0\beta > 0β>0. The resulting random order, the behavioral solution X♭X^\flatX♭, is the object of the paper. For uniform demand it is a truncated normal and its moments are explicit (§4.1). For a general demand distribution there is no closed form, and §4.3 of the paper characterizes the moments of X♭X^\flatX♭ through a single function instead. This mission formalizes that characterization, Proposition 2.

Setting

Demand DDD has a density fff: f≥0f \ge 0f≥0, f(x)=0f(x) = 0f(x)=0 for x<0x < 0x<0, and ∫f=1\int f = 1∫f=1. For an order quantity xxx, the expected sales are Emin⁡(D,x)=∫min⁡(t,x)f(t) dtE\min(D,x) = \int \min(t,x)f(t)\,dtEmin(D,x)=∫min(t,x)f(t)dt and the expected profit is (eq. (3))

π(x)=p Emin⁡(D,x)−c x.\pi(x) = p\,E\min(D,x) - c\,x .π(x)=pEmin(D,x)−cx.

The decision domain SSS is the smallest interval containing the support of fff: the boundedly rational newsvendor may order any quantity between the smallest and the largest possible demand. The behavioral solution X♭X^\flatX♭ is the random order with density (eqs. (4), (11))

ψp,c(x)=eπ(x)/β∫Seπ(v)/β dv=e(pEmin⁡(D,x)−cx)/β∫Se(pEmin⁡(D,v)−cv)/β dv,x∈S,\psi_{p,c}(x) = \frac{e^{\pi(x)/\beta}}{\int_S e^{\pi(v)/\beta}\,dv} = \frac{e^{(pE\min(D,x)-cx)/\beta}}{\int_S e^{(pE\min(D,v)-cv)/\beta}\,dv}, \qquad x \in S,ψp,c​(x)=∫S​eπ(v)/βdveπ(x)/β​=∫S​e(pEmin(D,v)−cv)/βdve(pEmin(D,x)−cx)/β​,x∈S,

and ψp,c(x)=0\psi_{p,c}(x) = 0ψp,c​(x)=0 for x∉Sx \notin Sx∈/S.

A family of densities forms an sss-dimensional exponential family if they have the form h(x;η)=l(x)exp⁡{∑i=1sηiTi(x)−A(η)}h(x;\eta) = l(x)\exp\{\sum_{i=1}^s \eta_i T_i(x) - A(\eta)\}h(x;η)=l(x)exp{∑i=1s​ηi​Ti​(x)−A(η)} (eq. (10)); the ηi\eta_iηi​ are the natural parameters, the TiT_iTi​ the sufficient statistics and AAA the log-partition function. Su observes that the choice densities ψp,c\psi_{p,c}ψp,c​ are of this form with s=2s = 2s=2, natural parameters η1=p/β\eta_1 = p/\betaη1​=p/β and η2=c/β\eta_2 = c/\betaη2​=c/β, statistics T1(x)=Emin⁡(D,x)T_1(x) = E\min(D,x)T1​(x)=Emin(D,x) and T2(x)=−xT_2(x) = -xT2​(x)=−x, and

A(η1,η2)=ln⁡(∫Seη1Emin⁡(D,v)−η2v dv).(12)A(\eta_1,\eta_2) = \ln\Big(\int_S e^{\eta_1 E\min(D,v) - \eta_2 v}\,dv\Big). \qquad (12)A(η1​,η2​)=ln(∫S​eη1​Emin(D,v)−η2​vdv).(12)

In the Lean development these objects are IsDemandDensity f, expMin f, nvProfit f p c (π\piπ), decisionDomain f (SSS), logitDensity S (nvProfit f p c) β (ψp,c\psi_{p,c}ψp,c​), logitExp S u β g (the expectation E g(X♭)E\,g(X^\flat)Eg(X♭)) and logPartition f η₁ η₂ (AAA), all in the namespace BoundedNV.ExpFam.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 575)

With η1=p/β\eta_1 = p/\betaη1​=p/β and η2=c/β\eta_2 = c/\betaη2​=c/β, both partial derivatives of AAA exist at (η1,η2)(\eta_1,\eta_2)(η1​,η2​), and

EX♭=−∂A∂η2(η1,η2),(14)EX^\flat = -\frac{\partial A}{\partial\eta_2}(\eta_1,\eta_2), \qquad (14)EX♭=−∂η2​∂A​(η1​,η2​),(14) Eπ(X♭)=p ∂A∂η1(η1,η2)+c ∂A∂η2(η1,η2).(15)E\pi(X^\flat) = p\,\frac{\partial A}{\partial\eta_1}(\eta_1,\eta_2) + c\,\frac{\partial A}{\partial\eta_2}(\eta_1,\eta_2). \qquad (15)Eπ(X♭)=p∂η1​∂A​(η1​,η2​)+c∂η2​∂A​(η1​,η2​).(15)

Milestones

  1. Observation (p. 575). The normalizer ∫Seη1Emin⁡(D,v)−η2vdv\int_S e^{\eta_1 E\min(D,v)-\eta_2 v}dv∫S​eη1​Emin(D,v)−η2​vdv is finite and positive, ψp,c\psi_{p,c}ψp,c​ is a probability density, and ψp,c(x)=1S(x)exp⁡{η1T1(x)+η2T2(x)−A(η1,η2)}\psi_{p,c}(x) = \mathbf 1_S(x)\exp\{\eta_1T_1(x)+\eta_2T_2(x)-A(\eta_1,\eta_2)\}ψp,c​(x)=1S​(x)exp{η1​T1​(x)+η2​T2​(x)−A(η1​,η2​)}.
  2. Fact (13) for i=1i = 1i=1. ∂A/∂η1(η1,η2)=E T1(X♭)=E[Emin⁡(D,x)∣x=X♭]\partial A/\partial\eta_1(\eta_1,\eta_2) = E\,T_1(X^\flat) = E\big[E\min(D,x)\big|_{x = X^\flat}\big]∂A/∂η1​(η1​,η2​)=ET1​(X♭)=E[Emin(D,x)​x=X♭​].
  3. Fact (13) for i=2i = 2i=2, i.e. (14). ∂A/∂η2(η1,η2)=E T2(X♭)=−EX♭\partial A/\partial\eta_2(\eta_1,\eta_2) = E\,T_2(X^\flat) = -EX^\flat∂A/∂η2​(η1​,η2​)=ET2​(X♭)=−EX♭.

Significance

Proposition 2 turns the computation of the expected order and the expected profit of a boundedly rational newsvendor, which are integrals against the density (11), into the differentiation of one function of two variables. The paper uses this in two ways (p. 575): moments of X♭X^\flatX♭ can be approximated numerically from finite differences of AAA, and β\betaβ can be estimated from aggregate laboratory data by the method of moments, choosing β\betaβ so that −∂A/∂η2-\partial A/\partial\eta_2−∂A/∂η2​ at (p/β,c/β)(p/\beta,c/\beta)(p/β,c/β) matches the observed average order.

The result is classical in structure: (13) is the standard identity for exponential families (see, e.g., Lehmann and Casella 1998). What the formalization adds is the verification that the identity applies to this particular family under the paper's hypotheses, including demand distributions with unbounded support, where the decision domain SSS is a half-line and the integrals are improper. To our knowledge, no part of the paper has been formalized before.

Difficulty

The identity (13) rests on differentiating under the integral sign in (12). The textbook justification requires the natural parameter to lie in the interior of the natural parameter space, together with a dominating function for the derivative of the integrand. Neither is on the page: the paper states the Fact for exponential families in general. For bounded SSS the domination is immediate; for unbounded SSS it is not, and the natural first idea, to bound Emin⁡(D,v)E\min(D,v)Emin(D,v) by the mean of DDD, fails because the paper assumes no finite mean. The required control comes instead from the growth of Emin⁡(D,v)=∫0v(1−F)E\min(D,v) = \int_0^v (1-F)Emin(D,v)=∫0v​(1−F), which is sublinear in vvv, against the linear decay −η2v-\eta_2 v−η2​v with η2=c/β>0\eta_2 = c/\beta > 0η2​=c/β>0. This must be established uniformly for parameters in a neighborhood of (p/β,c/β)(p/\beta,c/\beta)(p/β,c/β).

Formalization scope

All quantities are real. Integrals are Lebesgue (Bochner) integrals over R\mathbb RR or over SSS, and partial derivatives are derivatives of the one-variable sections t↦A(t,η2)t\mapsto A(t,\eta_2)t↦A(t,η2​) and t↦A(η1,t)t\mapsto A(\eta_1,t)t↦A(η1​,t). The conventions committed to are:

  1. Standing readings. β>0\beta > 0β>0, because eq. (2) divides by β\betaβ and β=0\beta = 0β=0 (perfect rationality) is a limit the formula does not define; 0<c0 < c0<c is added to the paper's c<pc < pc<p, as it is needed for x∗x^*x∗ to exist and, on an unbounded SSS, for the integral in (12) to be finite.
  2. No finite mean of DDD is assumed, and SSS may be unbounded.
  3. Decision domain. SSS is the convex hull of the pointwise support {x:f(x)≠0}\{x : f(x)\ne 0\}{x:f(x)=0} of the given density fff.
  4. Base factor. The page writes l(x)≡1l(x)\equiv 1l(x)≡1; with the density understood on SSS, as in (11), the Lean statement uses the indicator of SSS.
  5. Statistic T2T_2T2​. T2(x)=−xT_2(x) = -xT2​(x)=−x, so E T2(X♭)=−EX♭E\,T_2(X^\flat) = -EX^\flatET2​(X♭)=−EX♭, and (14) is (13) with i=2i = 2i=2.
  6. No corrected slips. The signs of (14) and (15) were checked and are right as printed.

Junk values ruled out. In Lean, ln⁡0=0\ln 0 = 0ln0=0, x/0=0x/0 = 0x/0=0, the integral of a non-integrable function is 000, and deriv of a non-differentiable function is 000. If the statements used these silently, every identity could hold because every term vanishes. The milestones therefore assert integrability and positivity of the normalizer and that ψp,c\psi_{p,c}ψp,c​ integrates to 111. Every derivative is stated with HasDerivAt, which asserts differentiability.

The Fact (13) is not formalized for abstract exponential families, whose hypotheses the page does not state; it is specialized to this family. The method-of-moments remarks after Proposition 2 and the empirical §5 are not part of the mission.

The infrastructure needed is differentiation of parametric integrals over unbounded domains (Mathlib's hasDerivAt_integral_of_dominated_loc_of_deriv_le) and elementary facts about Emin⁡(D,v)E\min(D,v)Emin(D,v): continuity, 0≤Emin⁡(D,v)≤v0 \le E\min(D,v) \le v0≤Emin(D,v)≤v for v≥0v \ge 0v≥0, and sublinear growth. The last of these is reusable for any newsvendor model with general demand. Contributions of proofs for each milestone, and of a lemma establishing the uniform domination near (p/β,c/β)(p/\beta,c/\beta)(p/β,c/β), are welcome.

The source is the published article in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (2008); page numbers are the journal's.

Selected references

  • X. Su, Bounded Rationality in Newsvendor Models, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(4):566–589, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0200
  • M. E. Schweitzer, G. P. Cachon, Decision Bias in the Newsvendor Problem with a Known Demand Distribution: Experimental Evidence, Management Science 46(3):404–420, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.3.404.12070
  • G. E. Bolton, E. Katok, Learning by Doing in the Newsvendor Problem: A Laboratory Investigation of the Role of Experience and Feedback, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(3):519–538, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1060.0190
  • E. L. Lehmann, G. Casella, Theory of Point Estimation, 2nd ed., Springer, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1007/b98854
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Convex OptimizationOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

A D.C. Optimization Algorithm for Solving the Trust-Region Subproblem II: D.C. Duality Carries a Local Minimizer x* of g − h to a Local Minimizer y* ∈ ∂h(x*) of h* − g*Research Paper

Why local minimizers of d.c. programs matter

A d.c. program minimizes a difference of two convex functions,

α=inf⁡{g(x)−h(x):x∈Rn},\alpha = \inf\{g(x) - h(x) : x \in \mathbb R^n\},α=inf{g(x)−h(x):x∈Rn},

with ggg and hhh proper, lower semicontinuous and convex. Every twice continuously differentiable function is d.c. on compact convex sets, so the class covers most smooth nonconvex optimization, and it includes the trust-region subproblem min⁡{12x⊤Ax+b⊤x:∥x∥≤r}\min\{\tfrac12 x^\top A x + b^\top x : \|x\| \le r\}min{21​x⊤Ax+b⊤x:∥x∥≤r} that motivates the paper of Pham Dinh Tao and Le Thi Hoai An (SIAM J. Optim. 8 (1998) 476–505). Global minimization of a d.c. function is NP-hard in general, so practical algorithms, in particular the DCA of the same authors, compute local minimizers and critical points. The theory of local optimality is therefore what those algorithms can actually certify.

D.c. programs come with a dual program built from conjugate functions, inf⁡{h∗(y)−g∗(y):y∈Rn}\inf\{h^*(y) - g^*(y) : y \in \mathbb R^n\}inf{h∗(y)−g∗(y):y∈Rn}, which has the same optimal value. Toland (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 66 (1978)) showed that global solutions correspond under this duality. For local solutions the correspondence is subtler, and §3.2 of the paper gives conditions under which a local minimizer of the primal produces one of the dual. Toland's earlier version required g∗g^*g∗ to be differentiable on the whole space; Corollary 3.5 of the paper needs only a condition at the single point y∗y^*y∗.

Setting

Let X=RnX = \mathbb R^nX=Rn with inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥; the dual space YYY is identified with XXX. Functions take values in R∪{+∞}\mathbb R \cup \{+\infty\}R∪{+∞}. Γ0(X)\Gamma_0(X)Γ0​(X) is the set of proper lower semicontinuous convex functions. For θ∈Γ0(X)\theta \in \Gamma_0(X)θ∈Γ0​(X):

  • the effective domain is dom⁡θ={x:θ(x)<+∞}\operatorname{dom}\theta = \{x : \theta(x) < +\infty\}domθ={x:θ(x)<+∞};
  • the conjugate is θ∗(y)=sup⁡{⟨x,y⟩−θ(x):x∈X}\theta^*(y) = \sup\{\langle x, y\rangle - \theta(x) : x \in X\}θ∗(y)=sup{⟨x,y⟩−θ(x):x∈X};
  • the subdifferential at x0∈dom⁡θx_0 \in \operatorname{dom}\thetax0​∈domθ is ∂θ(x0)={y:θ(x)≥θ(x0)+⟨x−x0,y⟩ ∀x}\partial\theta(x_0) = \{y : \theta(x) \ge \theta(x_0) + \langle x - x_0, y\rangle\ \forall x\}∂θ(x0​)={y:θ(x)≥θ(x0​)+⟨x−x0​,y⟩ ∀x}, empty outside dom⁡θ\operatorname{dom}\thetadomθ; dom⁡∂θ\operatorname{dom}\partial\thetadom∂θ is the set where it is nonempty.

Differences are taken under the convention +∞−(+∞)=+∞+\infty - (+\infty) = +\infty+∞−(+∞)=+∞. Throughout, g,h∈Γ0(X)g, h \in \Gamma_0(X)g,h∈Γ0​(X) satisfy the standing inclusions

dom⁡g⊂dom⁡h,dom⁡h∗⊂dom⁡g∗.(3)\operatorname{dom} g \subset \operatorname{dom} h, \qquad \operatorname{dom} h^* \subset \operatorname{dom} g^*. \tag{3}domg⊂domh,domh∗⊂domg∗.(3)

A point x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimizer of g−hg - hg−h if g(x∗)−h(x∗)g(x^*) - h(x^*)g(x∗)−h(x∗) is finite and there is a neighbourhood UUU of x∗x^*x∗ with g(x∗)−h(x∗)≤g(x)−h(x)g(x^*) - h(x^*) \le g(x) - h(x)g(x∗)−h(x∗)≤g(x)−h(x) for all x∈Ux \in Ux∈U (display (4) of the paper); under the convention this is the same as requiring it for x∈U∩dom⁡gx \in U \cap \operatorname{dom} gx∈U∩domg. It is a critical point if ∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗)≠∅\partial g(x^*) \cap \partial h(x^*) \ne \emptyset∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗)=∅. The set Pl={x∗:∂h(x∗)⊂∂g(x∗)}\mathcal P_l = \{x^* : \partial h(x^*) \subset \partial g(x^*)\}Pl​={x∗:∂h(x∗)⊂∂g(x∗)} collects the points satisfying the classical necessary condition. "Local minimizer of h∗−g∗h^* - g^*h∗−g∗" is the same definition applied to the dual pair (h∗,g∗)(h^*, g^*)(h∗,g∗).

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 3.5 (p. 485)

Let x∗∈dom⁡gx^* \in \operatorname{dom} gx∗∈domg have an open neighbourhood UUU with g(x)−h(x)≥g(x∗)−h(x∗)g(x) - h(x) \ge g(x^*) - h(x^*)g(x)−h(x)≥g(x∗)−h(x∗) for all x∈U∩dom⁡gx \in U \cap \operatorname{dom} gx∈U∩domg, and let y∗∈∂h(x∗)y^* \in \partial h(x^*)y∗∈∂h(x∗). If

y∗∈int⁡(dom⁡g∗)and∂g∗(y∗)⊂U,(12)y^* \in \operatorname{int}(\operatorname{dom} g^*) \quad\text{and}\quad \partial g^*(y^*) \subset U, \tag{12}y∗∈int(domg∗)and∂g∗(y∗)⊂U,(12)

then y∗y^*y∗ is a local minimizer of h∗−g∗h^* - g^*h∗−g∗.

Milestones (in the order of the paper's proof)

  1. Theorem 3.2(i) (p. 484): a local minimizer x∗x^*x∗ of g−hg - hg−h lies in Pl\mathcal P_lPl​.
  2. Inverse subgradients (proof of Corollary 3.5, p. 485): y∗∈∂h(x∗)∩∂g(x∗)y^* \in \partial h(x^*) \cap \partial g(x^*)y∗∈∂h(x∗)∩∂g(x∗) gives x∗∈∂g∗(y∗)∩∂h∗(y∗)x^* \in \partial g^*(y^*) \cap \partial h^*(y^*)x∗∈∂g∗(y∗)∩∂h∗(y∗).
  3. Upper semicontinuity of ∂g∗\partial g^*∂g∗ (proof of Corollary 3.5, p. 485): under (12) with UUU open, y∗y^*y∗ has a neighbourhood V⊂int⁡(dom⁡g∗)V \subset \operatorname{int}(\operatorname{dom} g^*)V⊂int(domg∗) with ∂g∗(y)⊂U∩dom⁡g\partial g^*(y) \subset U \cap \operatorname{dom} g∂g∗(y)⊂U∩domg for every y∈Vy \in Vy∈V.
  4. Theorem 3.2(ii) (p. 484): if y∗∈∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗)y^* \in \partial g(x^*) \cap \partial h(x^*)y∗∈∂g(x∗)∩∂h(x∗), UUU is a neighbourhood of x∗x^*x∗ with U∩dom⁡g⊂dom⁡∂hU \cap \operatorname{dom} g \subset \operatorname{dom}\partial hU∩domg⊂dom∂h, and every x∈U∩dom⁡gx \in U \cap \operatorname{dom} gx∈U∩domg has some y∈∂h(x)y \in \partial h(x)y∈∂h(x) with
h∗(y)−g∗(y)≥h∗(y∗)−g∗(y∗),h^*(y) - g^*(y) \ge h^*(y^*) - g^*(y^*),h∗(y)−g∗(y)≥h∗(y∗)−g∗(y∗),

then g(x)−h(x)≥g(x∗)−h(x∗)g(x) - h(x) \ge g(x^*) - h(x^*)g(x)−h(x)≥g(x∗)−h(x∗) on U∩dom⁡gU \cap \operatorname{dom} gU∩domg, and x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimizer.

Companion statements

  • Corollary 3.3 (p. 485): if x∗∈dom⁡gx^* \in \operatorname{dom} gx∗∈domg and ∂h(x)∩∂g(x∗)≠∅\partial h(x) \cap \partial g(x^*) \ne \emptyset∂h(x)∩∂g(x∗)=∅ for all x∈U∩dom⁡gx \in U \cap \operatorname{dom} gx∈U∩domg, then x∗x^*x∗ is a local minimizer, with the inequality on all of U∩dom⁡gU \cap \operatorname{dom} gU∩domg.
  • Corollary 3.4 (p. 485): if x∗∈int⁡(dom⁡h)x^* \in \operatorname{int}(\operatorname{dom} h)x∗∈int(domh) and ∂h(x∗)⊂int⁡(∂g(x∗))\partial h(x^*) \subset \operatorname{int}(\partial g(x^*))∂h(x∗)⊂int(∂g(x∗)), then x∗x^*x∗ is a strict local minimizer.
  • The differentiable case of (12) (pp. 485–486): in the setting of the goal, if g∗g^*g∗ is differentiable at y∗y^*y∗ then ∂g∗(y∗)={x∗}\partial g^*(y^*) = \{x^*\}∂g∗(y∗)={x∗} and (12) holds.

Significance

Corollary 3.5 lets a local solution of the primal d.c. program be read off as a local solution of the dual one. This matters when the dual program is easier to handle locally, and it is the local counterpart of the global duality of Theorem 3.1. Theorem 3.2(ii), which the authors present as new, is a sufficient condition for primal local optimality stated through the dual objective. Corollaries 3.3 and 3.4 are the sufficient conditions on which the convergence analysis of the DCA rests: they explain when the critical points that the DCA reaches are in fact local minimizers, for instance when hhh is polyhedral.

These results have been proved on paper since 1997–1998 and are not open. To our knowledge none of them has a machine-checked proof. Formalizing them produces the local optimality theory of d.c. programming on top of an extended-real convex analysis layer (conjugates, subdifferentials, the convention +∞−(+∞)=+∞+\infty - (+\infty) = +\infty+∞−(+∞)=+∞), which the sibling missions of this series (global optimality, the DCA for the trust-region subproblem) can reuse.

Difficulty

Theorem 3.2 and Corollaries 3.3–3.4 are short arguments built on the Fenchel–Young inequality and its equality case. The obstacle in the goal is that the dual application of Theorem 3.2(ii) needs its hypothesis on a whole neighbourhood VVV of y∗y^*y∗, while (12) is a condition at the single point y∗y^*y∗. Bridging this requires the upper semicontinuity of the subdifferential of g∗g^*g∗ at an interior point of its domain. That rests on two facts: g∗g^*g∗ is continuous and locally bounded there, and the subdifferential is locally bounded with closed graph. Neither is in Mathlib for extended-real functions. The dual application also needs (h∗,g∗)(h^*, g^*)(h∗,g∗) to satisfy the standing assumptions, which needs biconjugation g∗∗=gg^{**} = gg∗∗=g for g∈Γ0g \in \Gamma_0g∈Γ0​, again in the extended-real setting. A first attempt that works only with finite-valued convex functions does not apply: g∗g^*g∗ is typically +∞+\infty+∞ outside a bounded set.

Formalization scope

  • The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) and values are EReal. Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​, ∂\partial∂ and the conjugate are the published definitions ThreeOpSplitting.ConvexRates.IsProperClosedConvex, InertialFB.IFB.IsSubgradient and CondatPD.FinDim.conj (an EReal supremum over all of XXX). The subgradient predicate requires the base point to lie in the domain, as the paper does.
  • The paper's g(x)−h(x)g(x) - h(x)g(x)−h(x) is the function dcSub, which returns +∞+\infty+∞ whenever g(x)=+∞g(x) = +\inftyg(x)=+∞. Mathlib's EReal subtraction is not used for it, because Mathlib sets ⊤−⊤=⊥\top - \top = \bot⊤−⊤=⊥, and that would make every point outside dom⁡g\operatorname{dom} gdomg a global minimizer with value −∞-\infty−∞.
  • "Local minimizer" includes the finiteness of g(x∗)−h(x∗)g(x^*) - h(x^*)g(x∗)−h(x∗) (Mathlib's IsLocalMin is not used), and the goal's conclusion includes the finiteness of h∗(y∗)−g∗(y∗)h^*(y^*) - g^*(y^*)h∗(y∗)−g∗(y∗).
  • The standing assumptions g,h∈Γ0g, h \in \Gamma_0g,h∈Γ0​ and (3) are the structure DCStanding and are a hypothesis of every item.
  • Disclosed deviations:
    • In the goal and in milestone 3, UUU is open. The page says "a neighborhood", but its proof needs an open set containing ∂g∗(y∗)\partial g^*(y^*)∂g∗(y∗).
    • Corollary 3.3 adds x∗∈dom⁡gx^* \in \operatorname{dom} gx∗∈domg. Without it the hypothesis is vacuous when U∩dom⁡g=∅U \cap \operatorname{dom} g = \emptysetU∩domg=∅, and the conclusion fails.
    • "g∗g^*g∗ differentiable at y∗y^*y∗" is stated through a real function that agrees with g∗g^*g∗ near y∗y^*y∗.
  • The goal assumes nothing about VVV, the upper semicontinuity of ∂g∗\partial g^*∂g∗, Theorem 3.2 or the relation x∗∈∂g∗(y∗)x^* \in \partial g^*(y^*)x∗∈∂g∗(y∗). Those appear only as milestones.
  • Infrastructure that would be reusable beyond this mission, and contributions that are welcome:
    • Fenchel–Young equality for EReal-valued Γ0\Gamma_0Γ0​ functions;
    • biconjugation g∗∗=gg^{**} = gg∗∗=g;
    • continuity of a convex function on the interior of its domain;
    • local boundedness and upper semicontinuity of the subdifferential.

Selected references

  • Pham Dinh Tao, Le Thi Hoai An, A d.c. optimization algorithm for solving the trust-region subproblem, SIAM J. Optim. 8(2) (1998) 476–505. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623494274313
  • J. F. Toland, Duality in nonconvex optimization, J. Math. Anal. Appl. 66 (1978) 399–415. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(78)90243-3
  • Pham Dinh Tao, Le Thi Hoai An, Convex analysis approach to d.c. programming: theory, algorithms and applications, Acta Math. Vietnam. 22(1) (1997) 289–355.
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Potential Games 3: A Finite Game Has the Finite Improvement Property If and Only If It Has a Generalized Ordinal PotentialResearch Paper

Motivation

In a strategic game, players may repeatedly change their own choices when a change raises their payoff. This gives a simple model of decentralized adjustment: each move uses the current profile and one player's immediate incentive. The central question is whether such adjustment can continue forever. Monderer and Shapley introduced the finite improvement property (FIP) to state that every sequence of strict unilateral improvements ends. Their 1996 paper, pp. 128–130, relates that dynamic property to a real-valued function on the game's strategy profiles.

An ordinal potential records each player's strict preference between two of their strategies when the other players' strategies are fixed. Such a function is useful because it assigns one common direction to the players' individual choices. The paper gives a two-player game G1G_1G1​ that has the FIP but no ordinal potential, then introduces a weaker, generalized ordinal potential and proves that it captures exactly the finite games with the FIP (Monderer and Shapley, pp. 129–130). This mission isolates that characterization from the paper's other results about exact potentials and congestion games.

Setting

Let NNN be a finite set of players. Player i∈Ni\in Ni∈N has a strategy set YiY^iYi, and a strategy profile y∈Y=∏i∈NYiy\in Y=\prod_{i\in N}Y^iy∈Y=∏i∈N​Yi selects one strategy for each player. The payoff function ui:Y→Ru^i:Y\to\mathbb Rui:Y→R gives player iii's payoff at a profile. Write (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) for the profile obtained by replacing player iii's strategy in yyy by x∈Yix\in Y^ix∈Yi. A finite game has finite YiY^iYi for every player. These are the paper's conventions at the start of §2 (p. 127).

A path is a sequence of profiles in which each step changes exactly one player's strategy to a different strategy. It is an improvement path when the moving player strictly increases their payoff at every step. The game has the FIP if no infinite improvement path exists. Thus the property concerns paths of any length and every allowed choice of deviator, rather than the behavior of one selected update rule (p. 128).

An ordinal potential P:Y→RP:Y\to\mathbb RP:Y→R satisfies

ui(y−i,x)>ui(y−i,z)⟺P(y−i,x)>P(y−i,z)u^i(y^{-i},x)>u^i(y^{-i},z)\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad P(y^{-i},x)>P(y^{-i},z)ui(y−i,x)>ui(y−i,z)⟺P(y−i,x)>P(y−i,z)

for every player iii, opponents' profile y−iy^{-i}y−i, and x,z∈Yix,z\in Y^ix,z∈Yi. A generalized ordinal potential replaces this equivalence by the forward implication only. The two notions are distinct, as the game G1G_1G1​ on p. 129 shows (equations (2.1) and (2.3), pp. 127, 129).

Formalization targets

Goal: Lemma 2.5

For every finite game Γ\GammaΓ,

Γ has the FIP⟺Γ admits a generalized ordinal potential.\Gamma\text{ has the FIP}\quad\Longleftrightarrow\quad \Gamma\text{ admits a generalized ordinal potential}.Γ has the FIP⟺Γ admits a generalized ordinal potential.

This is Lemma 2.5, p. 129. It specifies a precise characterization rather than choosing a particular potential or a particular update schedule.

Supporting statements

The milestone list follows the paper's statements: Lemma 2.3 says a finite ordinal potential game has the FIP; the proof of Lemma 2.5 says the finite-improvement reachability relation is transitive under the FIP; and it concludes that the whole strategy-profile set can be represented by a real function increasing along that relation (pp. 128–130). Corollary 2.6 and the explicit game G1G_1G1​ record the boundary between ordinal and generalized ordinal potentials: under its distinct-payoff condition a finite game with the FIP has an ordinal potential, while G1G_1G1​ shows that condition cannot simply be omitted (pp. 129–130). Lemma 2.1 and Corollary 2.2 concern equilibria: an ordinal potential game has the same pure equilibria as the game in which every player receives the potential, so a maximizer of the potential is an equilibrium, and every finite ordinal potential game has a pure-strategy equilibrium (p. 128).

Significance

The goal connects a property of all possible strict improvement paths to the existence of a single real-valued certificate on profiles. In a finite game, such a certificate describes a common direction for unilateral payoff gains, regardless of which improving player moves next. The distinction between ordinary and generalized ordinal potentials matters: an ordinary potential must also preserve indifference, whereas the FIP alone does not require that (Monderer and Shapley, p. 129).

The characterization is proved in the paper; the remaining work in this mission is a Lean proof of its faithful finite-game statement. The local platform index used for this proposal has no published theorem expressing this characterization. The definitions of improvement paths and improvement reachability can also support other formal results about game dynamics. The game G1G_1G1​ serves as a concrete check on the strict distinction between the two potential notions.

Difficulty

The payoff vector itself does not give an immediate numerical order on whole profiles: each step compares one player's payoff, and the next step may involve another player. Finiteness rules out an endlessly increasing sequence only after a suitable profile-level ordering has been established. The converse direction therefore requires more than observing that each individual move helps its deviator. The paper's G1G_1G1​ also rules out replacing the generalized potential in the goal with an ordinary ordinal one (p. 129).

Formalization scope

Players form a finite Lean type ι with decidable equality; each player's strategies form a type Y i. A theorem about a finite game additionally assumes every Y i is finite. These types may be empty: in that case there is no strategy profile, and the corresponding FIP and potential statements retain their ordinary quantified meaning. No nonemptiness assumption is inserted into Lemma 2.5. Corollary 2.2 alone assumes every strategy set nonempty, which the page takes for granted: without it there is no profile and no equilibrium. An equilibrium point is a pure Nash equilibrium in the sense of the published definition AGT.IsPureNash (no player gains strictly by a unilateral deviation), and "P admits a maximal value in Y" in Lemma 2.1 is read as "P attains its maximum on Y". The finite player assumption follows the standing convention on p. 127; the finite strategy assumption is added only where the source says “finite game.”

The expression (y−i,x)(y^{-i},x)(y−i,x) is Function.update y i x. IsStep requires one coordinate to change to a different value. HasFIP forbids an infinite natural-number-indexed path of strict payoff improvements, so it cannot be satisfied merely because each separately described finite path has finite length. A finite path stores its deviator at each step; the genuine-step condition determines that deviator uniquely. The same path bundle contains the paper's path sum and closed-path predicates for consistency across this paper's missions, although only finite improvement paths are used here. The relation ImprovesTo u x y means that a finite strict improvement path leads from yyy to a distinct xxx.

The necessary development comprises the two potential predicates, path and FIP definitions, the finite improvement relation, the transitivity and representation milestones, and the goal characterization. Contributions that prove these statements or simplify their proof dependencies are within scope. A definition that checks only finite paths, allows null steps, or confuses the one-way condition (2.3) with the two-way condition (2.1) would change the result.

Selected references

  • Dov Monderer and Lloyd S. Shapley, Potential Games, Games and Economic Behavior 14 (1996), 124–143, doi:10.1006/game.1996.0044.
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Machine LearningOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

The Weighted Majority Algorithm 4: The Continuous Master WMC Has Total Absolute Loss at Most ln(w_init/w_fin)/(1−β)Research Paper

Motivation

In sequential prediction, several forecasters can issue different answers for the same instance. A master algorithm must combine their advice before the true label is known. Littlestone and Warmuth's Weighted Majority framework gives worst-case guarantees for this setting: the instances and labels need not come from a probability distribution. The paper first studies binary predictions and then allows real predictions and labels in the unit interval. The continuous version matters when the distance between a prediction and a label carries information that a binary mistake count discards. The formal target here is the paper's total absolute-loss guarantee for that continuous master, WMC (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, §5).

The result is part of the paper's generalized analysis, which also covers a binary master WMG and a randomized master WMR. These algorithms share a range of allowed weight updates, but their predictions and losses differ. This mission isolates WMC's deterministic, continuous-label theorem and the numbered lemmas on which its statement rests. The finite-sequence convention is explicit in the paper's notations and assumptions (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, p. 220).

Setting

Fix a finite nonempty pool of nnn forecasters and a finite sequence of ttt trials. At trial jjj, expert iii predicts xi(j)∈[0,1]x_i^{(j)}\in[0,1]xi(j)​∈[0,1], and after the master predicts, a label ρ(j)∈[0,1]\rho^{(j)}\in[0,1]ρ(j)∈[0,1] is revealed. Expert iii has weight wi(j)w_i^{(j)}wi(j)​ before that trial. Every initial weight is positive, and weights remain nonnegative. The total weight and weighted mean prediction are

s(j)=∑i=1nwi(j),γ(j)=∑i=1nwi(j)xi(j)s(j).s^{(j)}=\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_i^{(j)},\qquad \gamma^{(j)}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_i^{(j)}x_i^{(j)}}{s^{(j)}}.s(j)=i=1∑n​wi(j)​,γ(j)=s(j)∑i=1n​wi(j)​xi(j)​​.

WMC predicts γ(j)\gamma^{(j)}γ(j). Its loss on the trial is the absolute error ∣γ(j)−ρ(j)∣|\gamma^{(j)}-\rho^{(j)}|∣γ(j)−ρ(j)∣, and its total absolute loss is m=∑j=1t∣γ(j)−ρ(j)∣m=\sum_{j=1}^{t}|\gamma^{(j)}-\rho^{(j)}|m=∑j=1t​∣γ(j)−ρ(j)∣. Write winit=s(1)w_{\mathrm{init}}=s^{(1)}winit​=s(1) and wfin=s(t+1)w_{\mathrm{fin}}=s^{(t+1)}wfin​=s(t+1) for total weight before the first and after the final update (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, pp. 232–233).

WMC updates on every trial. For 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1, it multiplies each weight by a factor Fi(j)F_i^{(j)}Fi(j)​ in the interval

β∣xi(j)−ρ(j)∣≤Fi(j)≤1−(1−β)∣xi(j)−ρ(j)∣,wi(j+1)=Fi(j)wi(j).\beta^{|x_i^{(j)}-\rho^{(j)}|}\le F_i^{(j)}\le 1-(1-\beta)|x_i^{(j)}-\rho^{(j)}|, \qquad w_i^{(j+1)}=F_i^{(j)}w_i^{(j)}.β∣xi(j)​−ρ(j)∣≤Fi(j)​≤1−(1−β)∣xi(j)​−ρ(j)∣,wi(j+1)​=Fi(j)​wi(j)​.

The factor may depend on both trial and expert. The paper permits any choice in this interval, so WMC denotes a class of runs rather than one fixed recurrence. Its convention 00=10^0=100=1 is used when β=0\beta=0β=0 and an expert has zero error (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, p. 233, eq. (5.1)).

Formalization targets

Theorem 5.2: WMC total loss

For every run with positive final total weight, the target is the paper's explicit inequality

m≤ln⁡(winit/wfin)1−β.m\le\frac{\ln(w_{\mathrm{init}}/w_{\mathrm{fin}})}{1-\beta}.m≤1−βln(winit​/wfin​)​.

The bound uses the run's actual initial and final weights, so it applies whether the upper or lower permitted update factor was selected, or a factor between them. The finite-valued statement assumes wfin>0w_{\mathrm{fin}}>0wfin​>0; the paper regards the bound as vacuous when the denominator of the logarithm is zero (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, p. 236, Theorem 5.2).

Supporting numbered results

Lemma 5.1 states βr≤1+r(β−1)\beta^r\le1+r(\beta-1)βr≤1+r(β−1) for β≥0\beta\ge0β≥0 and 0≤r≤10\le r\le10≤r≤1, ensuring the update interval is nonempty. Lemma 5.2 states the logarithmic potential estimate under only the update's upper inequality, including the special case in which β=0\beta=0β=0 and a master's unit loss forces the final total weight to zero. Lemma 5.3 turns those same conditions into the displayed total-loss bound. Each is a separate milestone with the paper's statement and page provenance (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, pp. 233–236).

Significance

The theorem controls the master's accumulated real-valued prediction error by an observable change in the total pool weight. It requires no distributional assumption on the trial sequence and no single choice of update factor. That breadth lets the same estimate be used for different update rules within the allowed range, while the explicit 1/(1−β)1/(1-\beta)1/(1−β) constant records the dependence on the algorithm's parameter. The paper also uses Lemma 5.3 in its analysis of WMR's expected loss (Littlestone and Warmuth 1994, pp. 236, 240).

The paper proves these results; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of their exact Lean statements. Its definition of a permitted continuous run and its upper-update potential conditions can also support subsequent formalizations of WMG and WMR. Lemma 5.1, the potential estimate, and the final loss bound remain distinct proof targets so that a solver can use or improve the underlying analytic infrastructure without changing the goal.

Difficulty

A binary mistake indicator cannot express the magnitude of an error between two unit-interval values. The generalized update contains a real exponent, absolute values, and a range of legal factors. An argument that handles only a selected endpoint of that range would leave permitted WMC runs uncovered. A further boundary occurs at β=0\beta=0β=0: an allowed update can reduce a positive weight to zero, and real logarithms in Lean have a defined value at zero although the paper's logarithmic bound is infinite there. The formal statements therefore distinguish the zero-final-weight clause from the finite-logarithm clause.

Formalization scope

The pool is Fin n with n>0n>0n>0 and the trials are Fin t; an empty sequence of trials is allowed. Lean's trial index starts at zero, so w 0 represents w(1)w^{(1)}w(1) and w t represents the weights after all ttt trials. The inputs are the prediction array and label array. Instances are not stored separately because the theorem refers to them only through expert predictions. Values, factors, totals, and losses are real numbers. The run predicate requires positive initial weights, nonnegative weights, predictions and labels in [0,1][0,1][0,1], 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1, and a permitted factor for every expert on every trial.

The theorem quantifies over every permitted run. A sorry-free local example exhibits a one-trial run with positive final weight, ruling out a globally empty run predicate. For positive final weight, the update conditions ensure earlier total weights are positive, so every weighted mean used in the loss has its intended denominator. The finite logarithmic conclusions assume positive final weight because Real.log 0 would otherwise introduce an unrelated total-function value. The definition layer supplies total weight, weighted mean, loss, base conditions, the upper-update conditions, and WMC runs; the proof development needs finite-sum and real logarithm inequalities from Mathlib. Contributions that establish the three numbered lemmas or the goal under this interface are in scope.

Selected references

  • Nick Littlestone and Manfred K. Warmuth, The Weighted Majority Algorithm, Information and Computation 108(2), 212–261, 1994. DOI: 10.1006/inco.1994.1009.
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Large Deviations of Sums of Independent Random Variables 2: For g with Positive Nondecreasing g′, P(S_n ≥ x) ≤ Π(b_j(x/n) + b_gj)exp{−ng(x/n)}Research Paper

Motivation

Bounds on the upper tail P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) of a sum Sn=X1+⋯+XnS_n=X_1+\dots+X_nSn​=X1​+⋯+Xn​ of independent random variables are used throughout probability, statistics, queueing and risk theory: they control ruin probabilities, the error of empirical averages, and the size of the largest deviations of random walks. The classical exponential inequalities (Bernstein, Hoeffding, Bennett) require the summands to be bounded or to have finite exponential moments of a fixed order. The polynomial bounds of Fuk and Nagaev only require finite power moments, at the price of a power-law rate.

Between these two regimes lie summands whose right tails decay like e−g(u)e^{-g(u)}e−g(u) for a function ggg growing faster than a logarithm — Weibull-type and other subexponential or superexponential tails. For such summands the natural size parameter is not a power moment but a generalized moment bgj=E[eg(Xj);Xj≥0]b_{gj}=E[e^{g(X_j)};X_j\ge 0]bgj​=E[eg(Xj​);Xj​≥0]. Section 2 of S. V. Nagaev's survey Large deviations of sums of independent random variables (Ann. Probab. 7, 1979, doi:10.1214/aop/1176994938) develops bounds on P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) in terms of these quantities. Theorem 2.5 of that section, attributed to S. K. Sakoyan and Nagaev, treats the case where ggg has a positive nondecreasing derivative — the case lim inf⁡x→∞g(x)/x>0\liminf_{x\to\infty}g(x)/x>0liminfx→∞​g(x)/x>0 of the paper — and gives a bound in product form whose exponential order is e−ng(x/n)e^{-ng(x/n)}e−ng(x/n).

Setting

Let (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,P)(Ω,F,P) be a probability space and X1,…,XnX_1,\dots,X_nX1​,…,Xn​ independent real random variables with distribution functions Fj(u)=P(Xj<u)F_j(u)=P(X_j<u)Fj​(u)=P(Xj​<u). Write

Sn=X1+⋯+Xn.S_n=X_1+\dots+X_n .Sn​=X1​+⋯+Xn​.

Let g:R→Rg:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Rg:R→R be differentiable with a derivative g′g'g′ that is positive and nondecreasing; in particular ggg is convex and increasing, and g(u)→∞g(u)\to\inftyg(u)→∞ as u→∞u\to\inftyu→∞.

For each summand define the generalized moment

bgj=∫u≥0eg(u) dFj(u)=E[eg(Xj); Xj≥0],b_{gj}=\int_{u\ge 0}e^{g(u)}\,dF_j(u)=E\big[e^{g(X_j)};\,X_j\ge 0\big],bgj​=∫u≥0​eg(u)dFj​(u)=E[eg(Xj​);Xj​≥0],

and, for a real sss, the negative-part factor

bj(s)=eg(0)∫u<0eg′(s)u dFj(u)=eg(0)E[eg′(s)Xj; Xj<0].b_j(s)=e^{g(0)}\int_{u<0}e^{g'(s)u}\,dF_j(u)=e^{g(0)}E\big[e^{g'(s)X_j};\,X_j<0\big].bj​(s)=eg(0)∫u<0​eg′(s)udFj​(u)=eg(0)E[eg′(s)Xj​;Xj​<0].

The factor bj(s)b_j(s)bj​(s) is always finite, since its integrand lies in (0,1](0,1](0,1]; bgjb_{gj}bgj​ may be infinite, and the theorem is meaningful only when every bgjb_{gj}bgj​ is finite. In Lean these objects are S n X, bg P X g j and bj P X g g' j s in the namespace NagaevLD.GenMoment.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2.5, (2.44), p. 767

For every x>0x>0x>0,

P(Sn≥x) ≤ ∏j=1n(bj(x/n)+bgj)exp⁡{−ng(x/n)}.P(S_n\ge x)\ \le\ \prod_{j=1}^n\big(b_j(x/n)+b_{gj}\big)\exp\{-ng(x/n)\}.P(Sn​≥x) ≤ j=1∏n​(bj​(x/n)+bgj​)exp{−ng(x/n)}.

The statement holds for every nnn, every distribution of the summands with finite bgjb_{gj}bgj​, and every admissible ggg; no constant is hidden.

Milestones

The proof of the paper passes through the following displays, all on pp. 767–768, with h=g′(x/n)h=g'(x/n)h=g′(x/n) where indicated:

  1. (2.45) the exponential Chebyshev bound P(Sn≥x)≤e−hx∏jEehXjP(S_n\ge x)\le e^{-hx}\prod_{j}Ee^{hX_j}P(Sn​≥x)≤e−hx∏j​EehXj​ for h≥0h\ge 0h≥0;
  2. (2.46) the exact split of EehXjEe^{hX_j}EehXj​ at zero and the bound EehXj≤∫u<0ehu dFj(u)+bgjsup⁡u≥0ehu−g(u)Ee^{hX_j}\le\int_{u<0}e^{hu}\,dF_j(u)+b_{gj}\sup_{u\ge 0}e^{hu-g(u)}EehXj​≤∫u<0​ehudFj​(u)+bgj​supu≥0​ehu−g(u);
  3. (2.47) for h=g′(x/n)h=g'(x/n)h=g′(x/n), sup⁡u≥0ehu−g(u)=ehx/n−g(x/n)\sup_{u\ge 0}e^{hu-g(u)}=e^{hx/n-g(x/n)}supu≥0​ehu−g(u)=ehx/n−g(x/n);
  4. the convexity step g′(x/n)x/n≥g(x/n)−g(0)g'(x/n)x/n\ge g(x/n)-g(0)g′(x/n)x/n≥g(x/n)−g(0), hence ehx/n−g(x/n)≥e−g(0)e^{hx/n-g(x/n)}\ge e^{-g(0)}ehx/n−g(x/n)≥e−g(0);
  5. (2.48) ∫u<0ehu dFj(u)≤exp⁡{g(0)+hx/n−g(x/n)}∫u<0ehu dFj(u)\int_{u<0}e^{hu}\,dF_j(u)\le\exp\{g(0)+hx/n-g(x/n)\}\int_{u<0}e^{hu}\,dF_j(u)∫u<0​ehudFj​(u)≤exp{g(0)+hx/n−g(x/n)}∫u<0​ehudFj​(u);
  6. the per-factor bound EehXj≤(bj(x/n)+bgj)exp⁡{hx/n−g(x/n)}Ee^{hX_j}\le(b_j(x/n)+b_{gj})\exp\{hx/n-g(x/n)\}EehXj​≤(bj​(x/n)+bgj​)exp{hx/n−g(x/n)}.

Significance

The bound separates the tail of SnS_nSn​ into a product of one-summand quantities. For fixed nnn and x→∞x\to\inftyx→∞ one has ∏j(bj(x/n)+bgj)→∏jbgj\prod_j(b_j(x/n)+b_{gj})\to\prod_j b_{gj}∏j​(bj​(x/n)+bgj​)→∏j​bgj​, so P(Sn≥x)<(1+ε)∏jbgj e−ng(x/n)P(S_n\ge x)<(1+\varepsilon)\prod_j b_{gj}\,e^{-ng(x/n)}P(Sn​≥x)<(1+ε)∏j​bgj​e−ng(x/n) for large xxx (the paper's (2.49)); compared with the elementary lower bound P(Sn≥x)≥∏jP(Xj≥x/n)P(S_n\ge x)\ge\prod_j P(X_j\ge x/n)P(Sn​≥x)≥∏j​P(Xj​≥x/n) (2.50), this shows the exponential order e−ng(x/n)e^{-ng(x/n)}e−ng(x/n) is the right one when the right tails of the summands are of order bgje−gb_{gj}e^{-g}bgj​e−g. The only case where the right side does not depend on nnn is g(u)=Tug(u)=Tug(u)=Tu, the classical Chernoff regime, of which the theorem is a generalization.

The result is a published theorem with a complete half-page proof; it is not open. As far as a search of the Prove2Me catalogue shows, no part of it has been machine-checked: the catalogue contains single-variable Chernoff bounds (Mathlib's measure_ge_le_exp_mul_mgf) but no bound in terms of generalized moments. The mission produces a formal proof of the theorem and, along the way, reusable statements about tilted truncated moments of independent sums.

Difficulty

Each step of the argument is short; the work is in carrying it through real-valued measure theory. The exponential Chebyshev step requires the moment generating function of a sum of independent variables to factor, which needs the integrability of every ehXje^{hX_j}ehXj​ — a fact that here must be derived from the finiteness of bgjb_{gj}bgj​ and the bound on ehu−g(u)e^{hu-g(u)}ehu−g(u), not assumed. The supremum in (2.46) has to be identified as a maximum attained at x/nx/nx/n, which rests on the convexity of ggg on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) obtained from a monotone derivative. Finally the split of EehXjEe^{hX_j}EehXj​ at 000 must match the definition of bgjb_{gj}bgj​ exactly: a mismatch at the single point u=0u=0u=0 breaks the theorem.

Formalization scope

The summands are X : Fin n → Ω → ℝ on a probability space, each measurable and jointly independent (iIndepFun); index jjj in Lean is the paper's j+1j+1j+1. Integrals ∫⋅ dFj(u)\int\cdot\,dF_j(u)∫⋅dFj​(u) over a set of uuu are written as expectations restricted to the corresponding event, so no distribution functions appear. Probabilities are P.real, and P(Sn≥x)P(S_n\ge x)P(Sn​≥x) is P.real {ω | x ≤ S n X ω}.

Committed conventions and disclosed additions:

  • bgjb_{gj}bgj​ over u≥0u\ge 0u≥0. The paper defines bgi=∫0+∞eg(u) dFi(u)b_{gi}=\int_{0+}^{\infty}e^{g(u)}\,dF_i(u)bgi​=∫0+∞​eg(u)dFi​(u) (p. 759), over u>0u>0u>0. The proof splits at 0−0-0− and bounds the whole part on u≥0u\ge 0u≥0 by bgjb_{gj}bgj​; with the u>0u>0u>0 reading the theorem is false (two summands with P(Xj=1)=0.1P(X_j=1)=0.1P(Xj​=1)=0.1, P(Xj=0)=0.9P(X_j=0)=0.9P(Xj​=0)=0.9, g(u)=ug(u)=ug(u)=u, x=1x=1x=1 give P(S2≥1)=0.19P(S_2\ge 1)=0.19P(S2​≥1)=0.19 against a bound of about 0.0270.0270.027). The formalization integrates over u≥0u\ge 0u≥0.
  • Finiteness of bgjb_{gj}bgj​ is an explicit integrability hypothesis. The paper treats bgjb_{gj}bgj​ as a finite factor; Lean's integral of a non-integrable function is 000, which would turn the bound into a false statement rather than a trivial one. This rules out the trivializing reading in which a junk bgj=0b_{gj}=0bgj​=0 is used.
  • Hypotheses on ggg — differentiability, g′>0g'>0g′>0, g′g'g′ nondecreasing — are imposed on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) only, the region where ggg and g′g'g′ are evaluated; the paper's global hypothesis implies them. They also give §2's standing assumption that ggg is nondecreasing with g(u)→∞g(u)\to\inftyg(u)→∞, which is therefore not stated separately.
  • Suprema in (2.46)–(2.47) are never real sSup: (2.46) is stated for every upper bound MMM of ehu−g(u)e^{hu-g(u)}ehu−g(u) on u≥0u\ge 0u≥0, and (2.47) as IsGreatest.
  • The convexity step is stated with "≥\ge≥"; the page prints ">>>", which fails for g(u)=Tug(u)=Tug(u)=Tu.
  • n≥1n\ge1n≥1 is explicit in the theorem statements, matching the paper's sum X1+⋯+XnX_1+\dots+X_nX1​+⋯+Xn​ and avoiding Lean's x/0=0x/0=0x/0=0 value.
  • (2.45) assumes the finiteness of each EehXjEe^{hX_j}EehXj​, which the page takes for granted.
  • (2.46) assumes h≥0h\ge0h≥0, as used in the proof, so its negative-part expectation is finite; the finite bgjb_{gj}bgj​ and an upper bound on ehu−g(u)e^{hu-g(u)}ehu−g(u) make its positive part finite.

A complete development needs the factorization of exponential moments of independent sums (available in Mathlib as iIndepFun.mgf_sum), Markov's inequality, splitting a Bochner integral over an event and its complement, and the tangent-line inequality for a function with monotone derivative. Proofs of the milestones, alternative arguments, and lemmas on truncated exponential moments are all welcome.

Selected references

  • S. V. Nagaev, Large deviations of sums of independent random variables, Annals of Probability 7(5), 745–789, 1979. doi:10.1214/aop/1176994938
  • D. Kh. Fuk and S. V. Nagaev, Probability inequalities for sums of independent random variables, Theory of Probability and Its Applications 16(4), 643–660, 1971. doi:10.1137/1116071
  • H. Chernoff, A measure of asymptotic efficiency for tests of a hypothesis based on the sum of observations, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 23(4), 493–507, 1952. doi:10.1214/aoms/1177729330
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Potential Games 2: Every Finite Potential Game Is Isomorphic to a Congestion GameResearch Paper

Motivation

Congestion games model situations in which agents choose sets of shared resources and the payoff of each resource depends only on how many agents use it: drivers choosing routes through road segments, jobs choosing machines, flows choosing links in a network. Rosenthal (A class of games possessing pure-strategy Nash equilibria, Int. J. Game Theory 2, 1973) showed that every such game has a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium, by exhibiting a single real function on strategy profiles whose changes track every player's unilateral payoff changes.

Monderer and Shapley (Potential Games, Games Econ. Behav. 14, 1996) isolated that property and called games having it potential games. Their Section 3 shows that the property characterizes congestion games: Rosenthal's argument gives Theorem 3.1 (every congestion game is a potential game), and Theorem 3.2 gives the converse up to a renaming of strategies. Potential games have since become a standard tool in algorithmic game theory (convergence of best-response dynamics, price of stability bounds, learning in games), and Theorem 3.2 is the reason that results proved for congestion games apply to all finite potential games.

Setting

A game in strategic form Γ\GammaΓ has a finite set of players N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}, for each player iii a strategy set YiY^iYi, the profile set Y=×i∈NYiY = \times_{i\in N} Y^iY=×i∈N​Yi, and payoff functions ui:Y→Ru^i : Y \to \mathbb{R}ui:Y→R. For a profile yyy and x∈Yix \in Y^ix∈Yi, (y−i,x)(y^{-i}, x)(y−i,x) is yyy with player iii's strategy replaced by xxx. The game is finite if every YiY^iYi is finite.

A function P:Y→RP : Y \to \mathbb{R}P:Y→R is a potential for Γ\GammaΓ (condition (2.2) with unit weights) if

ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z)for all i, y−i, x,z∈Yi,u^i(y^{-i}, x) - u^i(y^{-i}, z) = P(y^{-i}, x) - P(y^{-i}, z) \qquad \text{for all } i,\ y^{-i},\ x, z \in Y^i,ui(y−i,x)−ui(y−i,z)=P(y−i,x)−P(y−i,z)for all i, y−i, x,z∈Yi,

and Γ\GammaΓ is a potential game if it has a potential (IsPotential, IsPotentialGame).

A congestion model C(N,M,(Σi)i∈N,(cj)j∈M)C(N, M, (\Sigma^i)_{i\in N}, (c_j)_{j\in M})C(N,M,(Σi)i∈N​,(cj​)j∈M​) has players NNN, a finite set of facilities MMM, for every player a set Σi\Sigma^iΣi of strategies, each a nonempty subset of MMM, and for every facility jjj a vector cjc_jcj​, where cj(k)c_j(k)cj​(k) is the payoff to each user of jjj when exactly kkk players use it. The associated congestion game has strategy sets Σi\Sigma^iΣi and payoffs

vi(A)=∑j∈Aicj(σj(A)),σj(A)=#{i∈N:j∈Ai}.(3.1)v^i(A) = \sum_{j\in A^i} c_j\big(\sigma_j(A)\big), \qquad \sigma_j(A) = \#\{i \in N : j \in A^i\}. \tag{3.1}vi(A)=j∈Ai∑​cj​(σj​(A)),σj​(A)=#{i∈N:j∈Ai}.(3.1)

Two games with the same players are isomorphic (IsIsomorphic) if there are bijections gi:Y1i→Y2ig^i : Y^i_1 \to Y^i_2gi:Y1i​→Y2i​ with u1i(y)=u2i(g1(y1),…,gn(yn))u^i_1(y) = u^i_2(g^1(y^1), \dots, g^n(y^n))u1i​(y)=u2i​(g1(y1),…,gn(yn)) for every player iii and profile yyy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

Every finite potential game is isomorphic to a congestion game.\text{Every finite potential game is isomorphic to a congestion game.}Every finite potential game is isomorphic to a congestion game.

Formally: for every finite set of players, finite strategy sets YiY^iYi and payoffs uuu admitting a potential, there are m∈Nm \in \mathbb{N}m∈N and a congestion model on the facilities {1,…,m}\{1, \dots, m\}{1,…,m}, all of whose strategies are nonempty facility sets, whose congestion game is isomorphic to Γ\GammaΓ.

Milestones

The milestones follow Appendix B of the paper.

  1. Lemma B.1 (p. 139): with xr(j)=cj(r)x^r(j) = c_j(r)xr(j)=cj​(r) and x(B)=∑j∈Bx(j)x(B) = \sum_{j\in B} x(j)x(B)=∑j∈B​x(j), vi(A)=x1(A(i)∩A(−i)c)+x2(⋃k≠i[A(i)∩A(k)∩A(−{i,k})c])+⋯+xn(⋂kA(k))v^i(A) = x^1(A(i)\cap A(-i)^c) + x^2\big(\bigcup_{k\neq i}[A(i)\cap A(k)\cap A(-\{i,k\})^c]\big) + \cdots + x^n\big(\bigcap_{k} A(k)\big)vi(A)=x1(A(i)∩A(−i)c)+x2(⋃k=i​[A(i)∩A(k)∩A(−{i,k})c])+⋯+xn(⋂k​A(k)).
  2. The invariance of ui−Pu^i - Pui−P (p. 141): ui(a−i,ai)−P(a−i,ai)u^i(a^{-i}, a^i) - P(a^{-i}, a^i)ui(a−i,ai)−P(a−i,ai) does not depend on aia^iai.
  3. The M1M_1M1​ identity and (B.2) (p. 141): on the facility set M=×i{0,1}K(i)M = \times_i \{0,1\}^{K(i)}M=×i​{0,1}K(i), Am11∩⋯∩Amnn∩M1={ε(m)}A^1_{m_1}\cap\cdots\cap A^n_{m_n}\cap M_1 = \{\varepsilon(m)\}Am1​1​∩⋯∩Amn​n​∩M1​={ε(m)}, so xn(Am11∩⋯∩Amnn)=P(am11,…,amnn)x^n(A^1_{m_1}\cap\cdots\cap A^n_{m_n}) = P(a^1_{m_1}, \dots, a^n_{m_n})xn(Am1​1​∩⋯∩Amn​n​)=P(am1​1​,…,amn​n​).
  4. (B.6) (p. 141): x1(Amii∩A(−i)c)=x1(ε(mi))=ui(a)−P(a)x^1(A^i_{m_i}\cap A(-i)^c) = x^1(\varepsilon(m^i)) = u^i(a) - P(a)x1(Ami​i​∩A(−i)c)=x1(ε(mi))=ui(a)−P(a).

Significance

Theorems 3.1 and 3.2 together say that, up to renaming strategies, the finite potential games and the congestion games are the same class. Consequently any statement about finite congestion games that is invariant under isomorphism (existence of pure equilibria, convergence of improvement dynamics, the structure of equilibrium sets) holds for all finite potential games, and conversely any potential game can be realized as a resource-sharing model. The representation is also the starting point of the later literature on the number of facilities needed to represent potential games, which the paper itself begins with a remark at the end of Appendix B.

Theorem 3.1 is already machine-checked on the platform, as Rosenthal's potential identity PriceOfStability.Harmonic.rosenthal_potential_change (Proved); it is included in this mission as a reference item. Theorem 3.2 is proved in the paper but has no machine-checked proof that we know of. The mission adds a formal statement of the theorem, of isomorphism of games, of congestion games as games in strategic form, and of the explicit construction of Appendix B; and, once proved, a verified converse to Rosenthal's theorem.

Difficulty

The theorem is an explicit construction, and its difficulty is bookkeeping rather than a single hard idea. The facility set is a product of Boolean cubes, one per player; each player's strategy is the set of facilities with a 1 in a given coordinate; and the facility payoffs are defined only at load 111 and load nnn, by two auxiliary vectors whose definitions involve a choice of representative. Showing that the resulting congestion game reproduces every payoff requires identifying, for every profile, exactly which facilities are used by one player and which by all players, and showing that the "load 1" facilities pick up precisely the part of uiu^iui that player iii cannot influence. The paper leaves the two key set identities as "it can be verified"; they are the milestones.

The construction as printed does not cover one player: with n=1n = 1n=1 the vectors x1x^1x1 and xnx^nxn are the same vector, defined twice. The theorem is still true for one player, and the formal goal does not exclude it, so a complete proof must treat that case separately.

Formalization scope

  • Players form a finite type ι with decidable equality; strategy sets are types Y i, finite in the goal ([∀ i, Fintype (Y i)]). (y−i,x)(y^{-i}, x)(y−i,x) is Function.update y i x. No nonemptiness of the strategy sets and no lower bound on the number of players is assumed.
  • The congestion model is the published CongestionPoA.AsymSum.CongestionGame ι M (reference item): strategies i is the finite family Σi\Sigma^iΣi and latency j k is the paper's cj(k)c_j(k)cj​(k), an arbitrary real number. No sign change is made; the published names "latency" and "cost" are only names. Values of latency at 000 and above nnn never enter (3.1).
  • The congestion game as a game in strategic form is congestionPayoff G, whose strategy set for player iii is the subtype of G.strategies i. Because the isomorphism maps onto that subtype, the strategies of a player are distinct facility sets.
  • In the goal the facility set is Fin m for an existentially quantified mmm, and nonemptiness of every strategy, which is part of the definition of a congestion model on p. 133 but not of the published structure, is a separate conjunct. Dropping it, or replacing "congestion game" by an arbitrary game whose payoffs equal uuu, would make the goal a different, weaker statement; the formal goal does neither.
  • The Appendix B construction (FacilityConstruction) indexes the coordinates of player iii by YiY^iYi itself instead of K(i)={1,…,k(i)}K(i) = \{1, \dots, k(i)\}K(i)={1,…,k(i)}; mi=(mk)k≠im^i = (m_k)_{k\neq i}mi=(mk​)k=i​ is passed as a full profile whose iii-th coordinate is ignored; xnx^nxn and x1x^1x1 select a representative by choice, the chosen iii-th coordinate playing the role of the arbitrary aia^iai in (B.4).
  • Misprints corrected: in Lemma B.1, xr(j)=cj(m)x^r(j) = c_j(m)xr(j)=cj​(m) is read cj(r)c_j(r)cj​(r), and the "⋯\cdots⋯" as the general term xr(⋃S∋i,∣S∣=r[⋂k∈SA(k)∩A(−S)c])x^r(\bigcup_{S\ni i, |S| = r}[\bigcap_{k\in S}A(k)\cap A(-S)^c])xr(⋃S∋i,∣S∣=r​[⋂k∈S​A(k)∩A(−S)c]); in (B.6), A(−i)A(-i)A(−i) is read A(−i)cA(-i)^cA(−i)c and Pi(a)P^i(a)Pi(a) as P(a)P(a)P(a).

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a proof of the goal (by the paper's construction, with the one-player case handled separately, or by any other construction), and general lemmas about transporting potentials along isomorphisms.

Selected references

  • D. Monderer and L. S. Shapley, Potential Games, Games and Economic Behavior 14 (1996), 124–143. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1996.0044
  • R. W. Rosenthal, A class of games possessing pure-strategy Nash equilibria, International Journal of Game Theory 2 (1973), 65–67. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01737559
  • E. Anshelevich, A. Dasgupta, J. Kleinberg, É. Tardos, T. Wexler and T. Roughgarden, The Price of Stability for Network Design with Fair Cost Allocation, SIAM Journal on Computing 38 (2008), 1602–1623. https://doi.org/10.1137/070680096 (source of the platform's Rosenthal potential identity)
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