Motivation
Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the regulatory risk measure for banking and insurance capital: it is the quantile of a loss distribution at a fixed tail probability. Two questions arise when several agents use it. First, risk sharing: if an aggregate loss X is split among agents i=1,…,n, each measuring its share with its own risk measure, what is the smallest total risk the group can achieve and which split achieves it? Second, model uncertainty: an agent rarely knows the distribution of a loss exactly, and a common response is to evaluate the worst case over all distributions close to an estimate, here in the sense of the Wasserstein distance used in distributionally robust optimization (Esfahani and Kuhn, 2018).
F. Liu, T. Mao, R. Wang and L. Wei, Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022; the version used here is the authors' SSRN copy 3490348 of January 16, 2022, ssrn.com/abstract=3490348), combine the two questions. When each agent uses a Wasserstein-robust VaR and the split must be comonotonic (every share increases with the total, the usual requirement in insurance), their Theorem 6 gives the optimal total risk in closed form and shows that one agent should carry the entire loss.
Setting
Fix an atomless probability space (Ω,F,P): every event of positive probability contains an event of strictly smaller positive probability. A random variable X is a loss, with distribution function FX(x)=P(X≤x). The domain is X=L∞, the essentially bounded measurable random variables.
For α∈(0,1) the left and right Value-at-Risk are
VaRαL(X)=inf{x:FX(x)≥1−α},VaRαR(X)=inf{x:FX(x)>1−α},
so a small α looks far into the tail of the loss. Λ∈{L,R} selects one of the two.
The Wasserstein metric of order k≥1 between X and Y with quantile functions F−1 and G−1 is
Wk(X,Y)=(∫01∣F−1(x)−G−1(x)∣kdx)1/k,
and the robust version of a risk measure ρ at radius δ>0 is
[ρ]δk(X)=sup{ρ(Y):Y∈L∞, Wk(Y,X)≤δ}.
Two random variables X,Y are comonotonic if (X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0 for all ω,ω′ in an event of probability one. The comonotonic allocations of X among n agents are
An+(X)={(X1,…,Xn)∈(L∞)n:X1+⋯+Xn=X, Xi comonotonic with X},
and the constrained inf-convolution of ρ1,…,ρn is ⊞i=1nρi(X)=inf{∑iρi(Xi):(X1,…,Xn)∈An+(X)}. An allocation attaining the infimum is optimal.
Formalization targets
Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 31)
Let X∈L∞ and Λ∈{L,R}.
(i) If 0<δ1≤⋯≤δn and α∈(0,1), then
⊞i=1n[VaRαΛ]δi1(X)=[VaRαΛ]δ11(X)+i=2∑nαδi.
(ii) If 1>α1≥⋯≥αn>0 and δ>0, then
⊞i=1n[VaRαiΛ]δ1(X)=[VaRα1Λ]δ1(X)+i=2∑nαiδ.
In either case (X,0,…,0) is an optimal comonotonic allocation.
Milestones
- Proposition 4(iii), (34)–(35), p. 30. For k≥1, δ>0, α∈(0,1): [VaRαL]δk(X)=[VaRαR]δk(X)=x, where x is the unique solution of ∫0α(x−VaRuR(X))+kdu=δk, and [VaRαR]δk(X)≥VaRαR(X)+δ/α1/k.
- (40), p. 31. With Vδ=[VaRαL]δ1: Vδ(Y)≤0 if and only if ∫0α(−VaRuL(Y))+du≥δ.
- (39), p. 31. For δ1≤δ2: Vδ1⊞Vδ2(X)≤Vδ1(X)+δ2/α, through the allocation (X+δ2/α,−δ2/α).
- (38), p. 31. For δ1≤δ2: Vδ1⊞Vδ2(X)=Vδ1(X)+δ2/α.
- (41), p. 33. For λ≥1 with λα<1: [VaRαΛ]δ1≥[VaRλαΛ]λδ1 on L∞.
Significance
The theorem is one of the few explicit solutions of a risk-sharing problem with model uncertainty and non-convex agents. Without uncertainty, the inf-convolution of VaRs is a VaR at the summed level (Theorem 1 of the same paper), and its optimal allocations split the tail of the loss across agents. Under Wasserstein uncertainty and a comonotonicity constraint the structure changes: the optimum concentrates the whole loss on the agent least sensitive to uncertainty when the levels agree, or least sensitive to risk when the radii agree, and the remaining agents hold only cash. In particular the equal split (X/n,…,X/n), optimal for identical convex risk measures, is in general not optimal here. Proposition 4(iii) is independently useful: it computes the worst-case VaR over a one-dimensional Wasserstein ball of any order and shows that left and right VaR coincide after robustification.
The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of them has a machine-checked proof; this mission produces the first formal statements and, eventually, proofs. The quantile-based Wasserstein metric, the robust risk measure and the comonotonic inf-convolution are reusable objects for further work on robust risk measures.
Difficulty
The upper bound is a direct computation with one explicit allocation. The lower bound is the hard part. VaR is not convex, so the duality arguments that solve the inf-convolution of convex risk measures do not apply, and the robust VaR is not a distortion risk measure to which the Expected Shortfall formula of Proposition 4(ii) applies. The paper itself notes (p. 30) that the inf-convolution of robust VaRs over all allocations is hard to compute because VaR lacks convexity, and obtains only two-sided bounds there, which are generally not sharp. The explicit formula of Theorem 6 depends on the comonotonicity constraint, on the order k=1, and on the agents sharing either the level or the radius; the paper states it only under these assumptions, and the ordering of the radii or levels is necessary for the identity as written, since it singles out the agent who carries the loss. For Proposition 4(iii), the supremum over the ball is a supremum over distributions, and identifying it with a real number requires realising worst-case distributions as random variables on the given space, which is where atomlessness is used.
Formalization scope
Random variables are functions Ω→R; L∞ is the set of measurable, almost surely bounded functions, with no quotient. The probability measure is atomless in the splitting sense. The quantile function is FX−1(x)=VaR1−xL(X), and the Wasserstein integral is the interval integral over [0,1]; for X,Y∈L∞ its integrand is bounded and monotone on (0,1), so the integral is the paper's. The supremum in the robust measure ranges over Y∈L∞ only, as in the paper. It is a real supremum: the set is nonempty since it contains ρ(X), and for VaR its boundedness from above is part of the statement of Proposition 4(iii), so no junk value enters. Allocation constraints ∑iXi=X hold pointwise. The constrained inf-convolution is valued in the extended reals. The n=m+1 agents are indexed by Fin (m+1), so n≥1; the orderings of the radii and of the levels are hypotheses, since without them the identities fail. Theorem 6 is stated for order k=1; Proposition 4(iii) for every real k≥1. The single implicit hypothesis made explicit is λα<1 in (41), which keeps the VaR level in (0,1).
A formalization in which the robust supremum ranges over all measurable functions, or over an unbounded set where the real supremum is 0, would make the identities trivial or false; both are excluded by the definitions above.
The development needs: quantile functions of bounded random variables and their monotonicity; the existence on an atomless space of a random variable with a prescribed quantile function; comonotonic additivity of VaR; and the interval-integral calculus for monotone integrands. Contributions of general lemmas on quantile functions and on one-dimensional Wasserstein distances are welcome and reusable beyond this mission.
Selected references
- F. Liu, T. Mao, R. Wang, L. Wei, Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022; SSRN version of January 16, 2022. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3490348 , https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1217
- P. Embrechts, H. Liu, R. Wang, Quantile-based risk sharing, Operations Research 66(4), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1716
- P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Mathematical Programming 171, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-017-1172-1
- J. Dhaene, S. Vanduffel, M. Goovaerts, R. Kaas, Q. Tang, D. Vyncke, Risk measures and comonotonicity: a review, Stochastic Models 22(4), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1080/15326340600878016