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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.131125302137Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
10 provers on it19 of 20 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record→≤ 1.9202796Open frontier
4 provers on it7 of 8 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
18 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 12Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
7 provers on it14 of 15 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 23Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
40 provers on it15 of 17 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Actuarial ScienceProbability·Captain: WillR

Actuarial Mathematics XCIX: Life-Table Notation, Survival Laws and Commutation FunctionsTextbook

Motivation

A life table summarises the survival of a cohort as ages advance, as developed in Promislow's life-table treatment. It provides an essential common language for life assurance, retirement pensions, annuities and reserves. A credible mathematical foundation must make precise when cohort counts define conditional probabilities, how death counts exhaust an assumed closed population, and why commutation-function ratios give the same values as discounted contractual payments. The classical notation is widely understood by actuaries but can conceal assumptions at terminal ages, when there are no remaining lives, and at fractional-year payment times. This formalisation specifies those assumptions so that later results can safely reuse them.

Setting

Consider an integer-age cohort with a finite terminal age, nonnegative numbers alive and nonincreasing numbers alive at successive ages. At the terminal age the remaining cohort is zero. Annual deaths are the change in cohort size over each year. Conditional survival starts only from an age with positive numbers alive. The model also has a strictly positive annual discount factor; when the corresponding effective interest rate is nonnegative, that factor is at most one. A due annuity pays on the integer anniversaries at which the insured life is alive. An annual death assurance pays at the end of the year of death. All financial amounts in the principal identities are per unit benefit, valued at the attained age of the insured life.

Formalization targets

Cohort probabilities and lifetime laws

The opening group establishes that successive survivor and decrement counts conserve population mass. Multi-year survival, conditional and deferred mortality must be derived from original counts and remain coherent under time shifts. A zero survivor count is an explicit boundary of the probability model. Curtate lifetime moments are obtained from the annual death distribution and its tail probabilities. Continuous survival and hazard relationships form an additional interface requiring a genuine measurable lifetime law. They cannot be inferred from the table's integer-age observations without an interpolation assumption.

Select and fractional-age assumptions

The next group distinguishes age at selection from time since selection and attained age. Ultimate mortality applies only after the selection period. Within a year, uniform distribution of deaths, constant force and Balducci interpolation share the annual survival endpoints but generally disagree between those endpoints. Each conditional fractional formula needs the corresponding survival denominator to be positive. These are alternative models, so the choice of interpolation must remain explicit.

Commutation columns and benefit timing

The commutation columns are defined from the same original survivor counts and a fixed annual discount factor. Discounted survivors and year-end deaths create the first-order columns. Their finite forward sums create the second-order columns, and sums of those forward sums create the increasing-benefit columns. In particular, for survivors the discounted payments begin at the valuation anniversary, whereas for deaths the benefit is payable on the next anniversary. The finite terminal convention is essential for the last year's assurance payment and the last available annuity instalment.

Principal finite-cohort capstone

The principal goal is the finite-cohort valuation reconciliation. Starting independently from annual numbers alive and numbers dying, it shows that total deaths exhaust the living cohort, actual survival-contingent payments agree with the annuity commutation ratio, actual annual death payments agree with the assurance commutation ratio, and the commutation sums satisfy their backward recursions. It also establishes the capital identity expressing unit present value as annual death assurance plus the discount loss on an annuity due. No commutation recurrence or present-value equivalence is assumed as an input.

At a valid attained age, the annuity and assurance are independently valued from the original cohort:

a¨x=NxDx,Ax=MxDx,Ax+(1−v)a¨x=1.\ddot a_x=\frac{N_x}{D_x},\qquad A_x=\frac{M_x}{D_x},\qquad A_x+(1-v)\ddot a_x=1.a¨x​=Dx​Nx​​,Ax​=Dx​Mx​​,Ax​+(1−v)a¨x​=1.

Significance

As in the classical actuarial notation, the resulting interfaces separate cohort mass from conditional probability and separate mortality from the economic discounting basis. This allows a later actuarial mission to combine them only where the required regularity and positivity assumptions are available. The commutation functions supply a transparent independent valuation route alongside direct finite cashflow sums. Their ratios remain useful as a reference calculation even when production models value very large pension populations by member-level cashflow projection. Higher-order commutation functions are also the natural algebraic representation of benefits that increase by one unit at each subsequent anniversary.

This foundation is reusable across future mortality and valuation missions. A foundational namespace is particularly important where related existing missions already use different local definitions. The present work provides a compatibility design and a proposed canonical public vocabulary. Publishing an older equivalent definition does not automatically establish a safe imported interface: exact source, revision, visibility, and declaration signatures must match. The programme therefore retains existing mission objects and develops explicit crosswalks, rather than silently replacing earlier results.

Difficulty

The mathematical difficulty centres on conditioning, index shifts and independent routes to the same financial result. At an age with no survivors, a formal programming language may return a totalised value for division by zero even though no conditional mortality probability exists. A common off-by-one error values a death at the beginning of its year or includes a due annuity payment after the terminal age. Another error confuses discounting to time zero with discounting to the current valuation age. Select mortality requires careful handling of attained age at the exact selection-duration boundary. Continuous lifetime hazard and moment formulas additionally need probability, measurability and integrability assumptions that finite cohort counts alone cannot supply.

The double-sum commutation identities require a finite discrete summation argument and must use published survivor and assurance conventions consistently. The goal compares separate original definitions of payment cashflows, the population exit distribution, and commutation columns under one valid finite life table. The capstone is nonvacuous: a positive starting cohort and positive discount factor exclude empty-cohort substitutions and make its conditional cashflows meaningful. Its assumptions impose cohort validity and positive discounting; they do not contain the desired present-value identities as hypotheses.

Formalization scope

The initial formalisation supplies a canonical finite discrete cohort and annual cashflow basis. The continuous-law, hazard, select and fractional-age results are separately specified mathematical interfaces and are admitted into the formal theorem inventory only when remote declaration checks establish valid Lean signatures. For nonnegative effective interest the annual discount is in the interval from zero excluded to one included. More general deterministic term structures and stochastic discount factors require separate cashflow definitions. Joint-life and competing-decrement extensions must identify any independence or mutually exclusive decrement assumptions explicitly.

No assertion is made about mortality being stationary across calendar years or about the validity of a specific mortality table for a real population. The terminal-age assumption imposes certain death before the finite horizon. It is unsuitable without modification for a lifetime distribution with unbounded support. A lifetime with an atom at an integer boundary requires separate weak and strict survival events; interpreting a one-year death count as the hazard at the death instant is unjustified without further assumptions. Open formal statements remain proof obligations, and passing a declaration check would establish only well-formed Lean, not the mathematical truth of the intended result.

The finite-cohort valuation targets also include independently defined one-year and multi-year mortality probabilities, temporary and deferred annuities, term and endowment assurances, pure endowments, annuities in arrears and increasing finite-term cashflows. The expanded candidate graph has 26 definitions and 48 open theorem obligations in a coherent reconciliation programme. New results require independently derived cashflow-to-commutation identities.

Related proposals LII (commutation functions and finite-term benefits) and LXII (fractional-duration valuation) are in review, not public importable dependencies. Existing published life-table theorems in XLV must be reused where signatures match. The fractional-age and continuous-law interfaces require separate hypotheses. All research targets remain provisional until their exact published-name overlap checks, authoritative declaration elaboration and dependency links are validated. No private diagnostic is counted as a proved theorem.

The increasing-insurance commutation column requires the relative-duration or absolute-age convention to be declared explicitly. Annual UDD includes certain year-end death, but constant-force and Balducci interpolation require annual death probability strictly below one.

Selected references

  • S. David Promislow (2015), Fundamentals of Actuarial Mathematics, third edition, Wiley, Chapters 2–5, 7, 9 and 13–14. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Fundamentals+of+Actuarial+Mathematics%2C+3rd+Edition-p-9781118782521
  • David C. M. Dickson, Mary R. Hardy and Howard R. Waters (2020), Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks, third edition, Cambridge University Press, Chapters 2–5. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108784184
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Onsager Reciprocal Relations: Symmetry of Kinetic CoefficientsTextbook

Motivation

Near thermodynamic equilibrium, flows of extensive quantities (heat, matter, charge) depend linearly on the thermodynamic forces (gradients of the conjugate intensive variables). Some of the coefficients in these linear laws describe cross effects: a temperature gradient driving an electric current (Seebeck effect), a voltage driving a heat flow (Peltier effect), a temperature gradient driving diffusion (Soret effect) and its converse (Dufour effect). In 1931 Lars Onsager showed that, as a consequence of the time-reversibility of microscopic dynamics, the matrix of these coefficients is symmetric (Onsager 1931). These reciprocal relations were confirmed experimentally across many classes of irreversible processes (Miller 1960), and Onsager received the 1968 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for them.

This mission formalizes the abstract, finite-dimensional version of Onsager's principle as presented by Landau and Lifshitz (Statistical Physics, Part 1, 1975) and reproduced in the Wikipedia article Onsager reciprocal relations, sections "Abstract formulation" and "Proof".

Setting

Let x=(x1,…,xn)∈Rnx=(x_1,\dots,x_n)\in\mathbb R^nx=(x1​,…,xn​)∈Rn be the fluctuations of nnn thermodynamic quantities from their equilibrium values. For small fluctuations the entropy is quadratic, and Boltzmann's formula gives the Gaussian fluctuation distribution

w(x)=A~ e−12βikxixk,w(x)=\tilde A\,e^{-\frac12\beta_{ik}x_ix_k},w(x)=A~e−21​βik​xi​xk​,

where β\betaβ is a positive definite symmetric real n×nn\times nn×n matrix and summation over repeated indices is understood. Write ⟨f⟩\langle f\rangle⟨f⟩ for the average of f(x)f(x)f(x) with respect to www.

The thermodynamic conjugate quantities are Xi=βikxkX_i=\beta_{ik}x_kXi​=βik​xk​. In the quasi-stationary regime the fluctuations relax according to x˙i=−λikxk\dot x_i=-\lambda_{ik}x_kx˙i​=−λik​xk​ for a real matrix λ\lambdaλ, so that x˙i=−γikXk\dot x_i=-\gamma_{ik}X_kx˙i​=−γik​Xk​ with the kinetic coefficients

γik=λil (β−1)lk.\gamma_{ik}=\lambda_{il}\,(\beta^{-1})_{lk}.γik​=λil​(β−1)lk​.

The mean value at time ttt of a fluctuation which takes the value xxx at t=0t=0t=0 is ξ(t)=e−tλx\xi(t)=e^{-t\lambda}xξ(t)=e−tλx, and Ξ(t)=βξ(t)\Xi(t)=\beta\xi(t)Ξ(t)=βξ(t). The time correlation is ⟨xi(t)xk(0)⟩=⟨ξi(t)xk⟩\langle x_i(t)x_k(0)\rangle=\langle\xi_i(t)x_k\rangle⟨xi​(t)xk​(0)⟩=⟨ξi​(t)xk​⟩.

Formalization targets

Goal: Onsager's principle

If fluctuations are symmetric under time reversal,

⟨ξi(t) xk⟩=⟨xi ξk(t)⟩(t≥0, 1≤i,k≤n),\langle \xi_i(t)\,x_k\rangle=\langle x_i\,\xi_k(t)\rangle\qquad(t\ge0,\ 1\le i,k\le n),⟨ξi​(t)xk​⟩=⟨xi​ξk​(t)⟩(t≥0, 1≤i,k≤n),

then the kinetic coefficients are symmetric:

γik=γki.\gamma_{ik}=\gamma_{ki}.γik​=γki​.

Milestones (in the order of the source's argument)

  1. x˙i=−λikxk=−γikXk\dot x_i=-\lambda_{ik}x_k=-\gamma_{ik}X_kx˙i​=−λik​xk​=−γik​Xk​ (definition of kinetic coefficients).
  2. ξ(0)=x\xi(0)=xξ(0)=x and ξ˙i(t)=−γikΞk(t)\dot\xi_i(t)=-\gamma_{ik}\Xi_k(t)ξ˙​i​(t)=−γik​Ξk​(t).
  3. ddt⟨ξi(t)xk⟩=−γil⟨Ξl(t)xk⟩\frac{d}{dt}\langle\xi_i(t)x_k\rangle=-\gamma_{il}\langle\Xi_l(t)x_k\rangledtd​⟨ξi​(t)xk​⟩=−γil​⟨Ξl​(t)xk​⟩.
  4. ⟨Xixk⟩=δik\langle X_ix_k\rangle=\delta_{ik}⟨Xi​xk​⟩=δik​.
  5. Under time-reversal symmetry, γil⟨Xlxk⟩=γkl⟨Xlxi⟩\gamma_{il}\langle X_lx_k\rangle=\gamma_{kl}\langle X_lx_i\rangleγil​⟨Xl​xk​⟩=γkl​⟨Xl​xi​⟩.

Significance

The symmetry γik=γki\gamma_{ik}=\gamma_{ki}γik​=γki​ is the mathematical content of the reciprocal relations: it reduces the number of independent transport coefficients from n2n^2n2 to n(n+1)/2n(n+1)/2n(n+1)/2 and yields the equality of measurable cross-coefficients such as the Peltier and Seebeck coefficients. Together with the positive semi-definiteness of the coefficient matrix (from non-negative entropy production), it is the basic structural input of linear irreversible thermodynamics.

The result is classical and its proof is standard in physics textbooks; this mission produces a machine-checked version of the finite-dimensional argument, including the Gaussian moment identity ⟨Xixk⟩=δik\langle X_ix_k\rangle=\delta_{ik}⟨Xi​xk​⟩=δik​ and the differentiation of the time-correlation function under the integral sign. No machine-checked formalization of this statement is known to the proposer.

Difficulty

The algebraic core is short, but the formal argument needs analytic input that the textbook treats as routine: Gaussian integrals over Rn\mathbb R^nRn for a general positive definite β\betaβ (integrability of polynomial moments against e−12xTβxe^{-\frac12x^{\mathsf T}\beta x}e−21​xTβx and the value of the second moments), differentiation of a parameter-dependent integral involving a matrix exponential, and the passage from an identity valid for t≥0t\ge0t≥0 to an identity between derivatives at the boundary point t=0t=0t=0, where only a one-sided derivative is available from the hypothesis.

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions Fin n → ℝ with Lebesgue measure; matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ, and β.PosDef (which includes symmetry) is assumed in every theorem. The average ⟨f⟩\langle f\rangle⟨f⟩ is the ratio ∫f w dx/∫w dx\int f\,w\,dx/\int w\,dx∫fwdx/∫wdx of Bochner integrals, so the normalizing constant A~\tilde AA~ cancels. The mean relaxation is the matrix exponential ξ(t)=e−tλx\xi(t)=e^{-t\lambda}xξ(t)=e−tλx. The time-reversal hypothesis is assumed only for t≥0t\ge0t≥0. The entropy SSS and Boltzmann's constant are not modelled; β\betaβ is the primitive datum, as in the source's statement of the principle. The hypothesis is non-vacuous (e.g. λ=β\lambda=\betaλ=β satisfies it), and the conclusion concerns γ=λβ−1\gamma=\lambda\beta^{-1}γ=λβ−1, not λ\lambdaλ.

All definitions are collected in Definitions.Def_OnsagerReciprocal_basic (namespace OnsagerReciprocal). Reusable Gaussian-moment lemmas for positive definite quadratic forms are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • L. Onsager, Reciprocal Relations in Irreversible Processes. I, Physical Review 37 (1931) 405–426. doi:10.1103/physrev.37.405
  • D. G. Miller, Thermodynamics of Irreversible Processes. The Experimental Verification of the Onsager Reciprocal Relations, Chemical Reviews 60 (1960) 15–37. doi:10.1021/cr60203a003
  • L. D. Landau, E. M. Lifshitz, Statistical Physics, Part 1, Butterworth-Heinemann (1975).
  • Wikipedia, Onsager reciprocal relations, oldid 1355014688.
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Differential GeometryMathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Einstein–Grossmann 1913 (Entwurf): energy-momentum conservation for matter and gravitational fieldResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1913 Albert Einstein and the mathematician Marcel Grossmann published the Entwurf ("outline") of a generalized theory of relativity and a theory of gravitation. It is the first theory in which the gravitational field is described by the ten components gμνg_{\mu\nu}gμν​ of a space-time metric, ds2=∑μνgμν dxμdxνds^2=\sum_{\mu\nu}g_{\mu\nu}\,dx_\mu dx_\nuds2=∑μν​gμν​dxμ​dxν​, and in which Ricci and Levi-Civita's absolute differential calculus (Grossmann's mathematical part) is brought into physics. Its gravitational field equations were superseded by the generally covariant field equations of November 1915, but the framework of the Entwurf — metric as gravitational potential, the energy-momentum law of matter in a gravitational field, a stress-energy expression for the gravitational field itself — carried over to general relativity.

The physical part (Part I, by Einstein) derives the field equations from one requirement: the energy-momentum law must hold for matter and gravitational field together. The derivation runs through an explicit differential identity, eq. (12), whose rewritten form (12a) yields the field equations (18) and the total conservation law (19). This mission formalizes that chain of statements.

Timeline.

  • 1912: Einstein's theory of the static gravitational field, with a single scalar potential c(x)c(x)c(x) (Ann. d. Physik 38).
  • 1913: Einstein–Grossmann, Entwurf: metric tensor gμνg_{\mu\nu}gμν​, energy-momentum law (10), field equations (18), conservation law (19).
  • 1915: Einstein, Die Feldgleichungen der Gravitation (Sitzungsber. Preuss. Akad. Wiss.): generally covariant field equations replace (18).

Setting

All objects live in one coordinate chart, x=(x1,x2,x3,x4)∈R4x=(x_1,x_2,x_3,x_4)\in\mathbb R^4x=(x1​,x2​,x3​,x4​)∈R4, with x4x_4x4​ the time coordinate. The fundamental tensor gμν(x)g_{\mu\nu}(x)gμν​(x) is a symmetric 4×44\times44×4 matrix field with negative determinant g=det⁡(gμν)g=\det(g_{\mu\nu})g=det(gμν​); γμν\gamma_{\mu\nu}γμν​ is the reciprocal (contravariant) tensor, the inverse matrix, and −g\sqrt{-g}−g​ is the density factor. All sums run over 1,…,41,\dots,41,…,4.

A material process is described by its contravariant stress-energy tensor Θμν\Theta_{\mu\nu}Θμν​ (for incoherent dust, Θμν=ϱ0dxμdsdxνds\Theta_{\mu\nu}=\varrho_0\frac{dx_\mu}{ds}\frac{dx_\nu}{ds}Θμν​=ϱ0​dsdxμ​​dsdxν​​). Its energy-momentum law in the gravitational field is eq. (10):

∑μν∂∂xν(−g gσμΘμν)−12∑μν−g ∂gμν∂xσΘμν=0(σ=1,2,3,4).\sum_{\mu\nu}\frac{\partial}{\partial x_\nu}\big(\sqrt{-g}\,g_{\sigma\mu}\Theta_{\mu\nu}\big)-\tfrac12\sum_{\mu\nu}\sqrt{-g}\,\frac{\partial g_{\mu\nu}}{\partial x_\sigma}\Theta_{\mu\nu}=0\qquad(\sigma=1,2,3,4).μν∑​∂xν​∂​(−g​gσμ​Θμν​)−21​μν∑​−g​∂xσ​∂gμν​​Θμν​=0(σ=1,2,3,4).

The second sum is the momentum (for σ=4\sigma=4σ=4, the energy) transferred per unit volume from the gravitational field to matter.

The gravitational field carries its own stress-energy tensor ϑμν\vartheta_{\mu\nu}ϑμν​, eq. (13):

−2κ ϑμν=∑αβτρ(γαμγβν∂gτρ∂xα∂γτρ∂xβ−12γμνγαβ∂gτρ∂xα∂γτρ∂xβ),-2\kappa\,\vartheta_{\mu\nu}=\sum_{\alpha\beta\tau\rho}\Big(\gamma_{\alpha\mu}\gamma_{\beta\nu}\frac{\partial g_{\tau\rho}}{\partial x_\alpha}\frac{\partial\gamma_{\tau\rho}}{\partial x_\beta}-\tfrac12\gamma_{\mu\nu}\gamma_{\alpha\beta}\frac{\partial g_{\tau\rho}}{\partial x_\alpha}\frac{\partial\gamma_{\tau\rho}}{\partial x_\beta}\Big),−2κϑμν​=αβτρ∑​(γαμ​γβν​∂xα​∂gτρ​​∂xβ​∂γτρ​​−21​γμν​γαβ​∂xα​∂gτρ​​∂xβ​∂γτρ​​),

and the field equations involve the second-order operator of eq. (15),

Δμν(γ)=∑αβ1−g∂∂xα(γαβ−g ∂γμν∂xβ)−∑αβτργαβgτρ∂γμτ∂xα∂γνρ∂xβ.\Delta_{\mu\nu}(\gamma)=\sum_{\alpha\beta}\frac{1}{\sqrt{-g}}\frac{\partial}{\partial x_\alpha}\Big(\gamma_{\alpha\beta}\sqrt{-g}\,\frac{\partial\gamma_{\mu\nu}}{\partial x_\beta}\Big)-\sum_{\alpha\beta\tau\rho}\gamma_{\alpha\beta}g_{\tau\rho}\frac{\partial\gamma_{\mu\tau}}{\partial x_\alpha}\frac{\partial\gamma_{\nu\rho}}{\partial x_\beta}.Δμν​(γ)=αβ∑​−g​1​∂xα​∂​(γαβ​−g​∂xβ​∂γμν​​)−αβτρ∑​γαβ​gτρ​∂xα​∂γμτ​​∂xβ​∂γνρ​​.

The Entwurf field equations (18) read Δμν(γ)=κ(Θμν+ϑμν)\Delta_{\mu\nu}(\gamma)=\kappa(\Theta_{\mu\nu}+\vartheta_{\mu\nu})Δμν​(γ)=κ(Θμν​+ϑμν​), with κ\kappaκ a constant. Lowering indices with ggg gives the covariant objects Tμν=∑gμαgνβΘαβT_{\mu\nu}=\sum g_{\mu\alpha}g_{\nu\beta}\Theta_{\alpha\beta}Tμν​=∑gμα​gνβ​Θαβ​, tμνt_{\mu\nu}tμν​ (eq. (14)) and the operator Dμν(g)D_{\mu\nu}(g)Dμν​(g) (eq. (16)).

Formalization targets

Goal: eq. (19)

If the energy-momentum law (10) and the field equations (18) hold, then for σ=1,2,3,4\sigma=1,2,3,4σ=1,2,3,4

∑μν∂∂xν{−g gσμ(Θμν+ϑμν)}=0.\sum_{\mu\nu}\frac{\partial}{\partial x_\nu}\Big\{\sqrt{-g}\,g_{\sigma\mu}(\Theta_{\mu\nu}+\vartheta_{\mu\nu})\Big\}=0.μν∑​∂xν​∂​{−g​gσμ​(Θμν​+ϑμν​)}=0.

Milestones

  1. The electrostatic model identity of p. 14, which illustrates the method.
  2. Identity (12a): ∑μν∂∂xν{−g gσμκϑμν}=12∑μν−g ∂gμν∂xσ{−Δμν(γ)+κϑμν}\sum_{\mu\nu}\frac{\partial}{\partial x_\nu}\{\sqrt{-g}\,g_{\sigma\mu}\kappa\vartheta_{\mu\nu}\}=\tfrac12\sum_{\mu\nu}\sqrt{-g}\,\frac{\partial g_{\mu\nu}}{\partial x_\sigma}\{-\Delta_{\mu\nu}(\gamma)+\kappa\vartheta_{\mu\nu}\}∑μν​∂xν​∂​{−g​gσμ​κϑμν​}=21​∑μν​−g​∂xσ​∂gμν​​{−Δμν​(γ)+κϑμν​}, for every metric.
  3. Identity (12b), the covariant counterpart, with tμνt_{\mu\nu}tμν​ and Dμν(g)D_{\mu\nu}(g)Dμν​(g).
  4. Eq. (10) ⇔\Leftrightarrow⇔ eq. (20), the covariant energy-momentum law.
  5. Eq. (18) ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ eq. (21), −Dμν(g)=κ(tμν+Tμν)-D_{\mu\nu}(g)=\kappa(t_{\mu\nu}+T_{\mu\nu})−Dμν​(g)=κ(tμν​+Tμν​).
  6. Eq. (22), the covariant conservation law for matter plus field.

Significance

The result itself. Eq. (19) is the property Einstein required of any relativistic theory of gravitation: the energy of the gravitational field acts as a source in the same way as every other form of energy, and matter together with field obeys conservation laws of divergence form. Identity (12a) is what makes this work for the Entwurf operator Δμν(γ)\Delta_{\mu\nu}(\gamma)Δμν​(γ); together with the matter law (10), the field equations (18) and the gravitational stress-energy ϑμν\vartheta_{\mu\nu}ϑμν​ are fixed by it.

Formalizing it. These statements are proved in the source by explicit computation, and the steps (12) → (12a) and the covariant forms (20)–(22) are given without the intermediate algebra. A machine-checked development provides the full index computations: derivatives of γμν\gamma_{\mu\nu}γμν​ and −g\sqrt{-g}−g​ in terms of those of gμνg_{\mu\nu}gμν​, the contractions in (12a) and (12b), and the lowering identities linking Δμν(γ)\Delta_{\mu\nu}(\gamma)Δμν​(γ) to Dμν(g)D_{\mu\nu}(g)Dμν​(g) and ϑμν\vartheta_{\mu\nu}ϑμν​ to tμνt_{\mu\nu}tμν​. A search of the platform library found no existing formalization of these statements.

Difficulty

There is no conceptual obstacle, but the identities are long. Identity (12a) involves second derivatives of γμν\gamma_{\mu\nu}γμν​, the derivative of −g\sqrt{-g}−g​, and contractions over up to six indices. The source gives only the final form of (12) and says the identity is obtained "nach dem angedeuteten Verfahren"; the intermediate algebra, and the analytic facts behind it (differentiability of matrix inversion and of −det⁡g\sqrt{-\det g}−detg​ under the standing assumptions), are not written out. A naive expansion of all sums produces thousands of terms.

Formalization scope

  • Space-time is R4\mathbb R^4R4 as one global chart, with points x:Fin 4→Rx:\mathrm{Fin}\,4\to\mathbb Rx:Fin4→R; two-index fields are matrix-valued functions. Partial derivatives are Fréchet derivatives along coordinate directions.
  • Standing assumptions on the metric: entries C2C^2C2, symmetric, det⁡g<0\det g<0detg<0 everywhere. No signature condition beyond the sign of the determinant; γ\gammaγ is the matrix inverse, −g\sqrt{-g}−g​ the real square root of −det⁡g-\det g−detg.
  • κ≠0\kappa\neq0κ=0 is assumed wherever ϑμν\vartheta_{\mu\nu}ϑμν​ or tμνt_{\mu\nu}tμν​ (defined with the factor 1/(2κ)1/(2\kappa)1/(2κ)) appears. Matter tensors are assumed C1C^1C1, and symmetric where the source's manipulation needs it (eq. (20)).
  • In eq. (14) the sum over α,β\alpha,\betaα,β is taken only in the term containing them, following the paper's convention. The printed eq. (22) has an inconsistent index placement; milestone 6 uses the placement of (20) and (12b).
  • The goal must not be trivialized: the field equations and the matter law are hypotheses about the same Θμν\Theta_{\mu\nu}Θμν​, and the hypotheses are satisfiable (e.g. constant metric, Θ=0\Theta=0Θ=0) but not degenerate in general.
  • Reusable infrastructure: derivative formulas for the inverse and determinant of a CkC^kCk matrix field, coordinate tensor calculus on R4\mathbb R^4R4. Contributions of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Einstein and M. Grossmann, Entwurf einer verallgemeinerten Relativitätstheorie und einer Theorie der Gravitation, B. G. Teubner, Leipzig und Berlin, 1913; reprinted in Zeitschrift für Mathematik und Physik 62 (1914). The source of all statements of this mission (Part I, §§4–5, pp. 10–17).
  • A. Einstein, Die Feldgleichungen der Gravitation, Sitzungsberichte der Preußischen Akademie der Wissenschaften, 1915, pp. 844–847.
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

First Law of Thermodynamics (Wikipedia) I: Internal Energy as a State Function from Adiabatic WorkTextbook

Motivation

The first law of thermodynamics is the form the law of conservation of energy takes for thermodynamic processes. For a closed system (no transfer of matter) it is usually written, in the sign convention of Clausius, as

ΔU=Q−W,\Delta U = Q - W,ΔU=Q−W,

where QQQ is the heat supplied to the system, WWW is the work done by the system on its surroundings, and UUU is the internal energy. Heat and work describe a process and depend on the path; the internal energy is a property of the state, and its change depends only on the initial and final states.

The Wikipedia article First law of thermodynamics (revision oldid=1366986255) describes two ways of reaching this statement. In the original "thermodynamic approach" (Clausius 1850, Rankine), heat, defined by calorimetry, and work are primitive notions. In the "mechanical approach" (Bryan 1907, Carathéodory 1909, Born 1921), only adiabatic work is primitive. The law then asserts that adiabatic work is independent of the path, and that this work defines a state function UUU, fixed up to an additive constant. Heat becomes a derived quantity, the residual Q=ΔU+WQ = \Delta U + WQ=ΔU+W. This mission formalizes the logical core of the mechanical approach.

Setting

A closed system has a set σ\sigmaσ of states. A process ppp has an initial state pstartp_{\mathrm{start}}pstart​, a final state pfinishp_{\mathrm{finish}}pfinish​, a net work W(p)∈RW(p)\in\mathbb RW(p)∈R done by the system on its surroundings, and a label recording whether it is adiabatic (carried out inside an adiabatic enclosure, so that energy is transferred only as work). A set P\mathcal PP of processes stands for the processes that can actually be carried out. It is assumed to satisfy:

  1. Composition: if p,q∈Pp,q\in\mathcal Pp,q∈P and pfinish=qstartp_{\mathrm{finish}}=q_{\mathrm{start}}pfinish​=qstart​, then the composite "first ppp, then qqq" lies in P\mathcal PP. Its work is W(p)+W(q)W(p)+W(q)W(p)+W(q), and it is adiabatic exactly when both stages are.
  2. Null processes: for every state AAA, leaving the system in state AAA (with no work and no exchange) is in P\mathcal PP.
  3. Path independence of adiabatic work: any two adiabatic processes in P\mathcal PP with the same initial and final states involve the same work.
  4. Adiabatic accessibility: there is a reference state OOO such that every state AAA is reached from OOO, or reaches OOO, by some adiabatic process in P\mathcal PP.

A function U:σ→RU:\sigma\to\mathbb RU:σ→R is an internal energy for P\mathcal PP if U(pfinish)−U(pstart)=−W(p)U(p_{\mathrm{finish}})-U(p_{\mathrm{start}})=-W(p)U(pfinish​)−U(pstart​)=−W(p) for every adiabatic p∈Pp\in\mathcal Pp∈P. For a given UUU, the heat supplied in a process is the residual

QU(p)=U(pfinish)−U(pstart)+W(p).Q_U(p)=U(p_{\mathrm{finish}})-U(p_{\mathrm{start}})+W(p).QU​(p)=U(pfinish​)−U(pstart​)+W(p).

Formalization targets

Goal: existence and uniqueness of internal energy

Under assumptions 1 to 4,

∃ U internal energy for P,andU,U′ internal energies  ⟹  ∃c∈R ∀A, U′(A)=U(A)+c.\exists\,U \text{ internal energy for } \mathcal P,\qquad\text{and}\qquad U,U' \text{ internal energies} \implies \exists c\in\mathbb R\ \forall A,\ U'(A)=U(A)+c.∃U internal energy for P,andU,U′ internal energies⟹∃c∈R ∀A, U′(A)=U(A)+c.

This is the article's statement: "For all adiabatic processes between two specified states of a closed system of any nature, the net work done is the same regardless the details of the process, and determines a state function called internal energy, UUU", together with its remark that the internal energy "is defined only up to an arbitrary additive constant of integration".

Milestones

  1. Formula (1) and the chain through the reference state. If quasi-static adiabatic work WA→BW_{A\to B}WA→B​ satisfies WA→O=−WO→AW_{A\to O}=-W_{O\to A}WA→O​=−WO→A​ and WA→B=WA→O+WO→BW_{A\to B}=W_{A\to O}+W_{O\to B}WA→B​=WA→O​+WO→B​, and U(A)=U(O)−WO→AU(A)=U(O)-W_{O\to A}U(A)=U(O)−WO→A​, then −WA→B=U(B)−U(A)-W_{A\to B}=U(B)-U(A)−WA→B​=U(B)−U(A).
  2. Shifting an internal energy by a constant gives an internal energy.
  3. Under adiabatic accessibility, two internal energies differ by a constant.
  4. Under assumptions 1 to 4, an internal energy exists (normalized by U(O)=0U(O)=0U(O)=0).
  5. The Clausius form ΔU=Q−W\Delta U=Q-WΔU=Q−W holds for the residual heat.
  6. Adiabatic processes involve no heat.
  7. In an adynamic process (no work), Q=ΔUQ=\Delta UQ=ΔU.
  8. Heat does not depend on the additive constant in UUU.
  9. In a cyclic process, the net work done equals the net heat taken in.
  10. No adiabatic cyclic process produces net work (no perpetual motion machine of the first kind).

Significance

The goal makes precise the step in the mechanical approach where internal energy is defined from adiabatic work instead of being postulated. It shows which properties of the set of realizable processes are needed for the definition to make sense. Once UUU exists, the familiar consequences follow at once: the Clausius equation for every process, the heat-free character of adiabatic processes, Q=ΔUQ=\Delta UQ=ΔU for adynamic processes, the equality of work and heat over a cycle, and the impossibility of perpetual motion of the first kind. Milestones 5 to 10 record these.

The mathematics is elementary and the results are classical. The value of the formalization is that it states exactly the hypotheses under which "path-independent adiabatic work defines a state function" holds. The article itself notes the gaps: experimental evidence for independence from the order of stages is thin (Bailyn), and Münster observes that one cannot always go adiabatically in both directions between two states. Assumption 4 therefore asks only for one direction.

Difficulty

The only non-routine step is existence when accessibility holds in just one direction per state. One defines U(A)=−W(O→A)U(A)=-W(O\to A)U(A)=−W(O→A) or U(A)=W(A→O)U(A)=W(A\to O)U(A)=W(A→O), depending on which link exists. Showing that this choice is consistent, and that it gives ΔU=−W\Delta U=-WΔU=−W for an arbitrary adiabatic process A→BA\to BA→B, requires splitting into four cases according to how AAA and BBB are linked to OOO. In some of these cases the composite process is an adiabatic cycle, which must be compared with a null process. Without null processes, or without closure under composition, the naive definition is not well-defined.

Formalization scope

  • States form an arbitrary type σ\sigmaσ. Work is real-valued and is work done by the system (Clausius convention), so that ΔU=−W\Delta U=-WΔU=−W for adiabatic processes and ΔU=Q−W\Delta U=Q-WΔU=Q−W in general.
  • "Adiabatic" is a primitive label on processes, as adiabatic walls are primitive in the mechanical approach. Heat is not primitive: it is defined as the residual QU(p)=ΔU+WQ_U(p)=\Delta U+WQU​(p)=ΔU+W.
  • The physically realizable processes form a set P\mathcal PP. All hypotheses are stated about P\mathcal PP, never about every conceivable process.
  • The goal is not vacuous: assumptions 1 to 4 can all hold at once (for example, states R\mathbb RR, with adiabatic work from aaa to bbb equal to a−ba-ba−b).
  • Open systems, matter transfer, the extensivity statement U0=U1+U2U_0=U_1+U_2U0​=U1​+U2​, and the differential form dU=δQ−δWdU=\delta Q-\delta WdU=δQ−δW are out of scope for this first mission.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, First law of thermodynamics, revision oldid=1366986255. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=First_law_of_thermodynamics&oldid=1366986255
  • C. Carathéodory, Untersuchungen über die Grundlagen der Thermodynamik, Mathematische Annalen 67 (1909), 355–386. https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1909MatAn..67..355C
  • M. Born, Kritische Betrachtungen zur traditionellen Darstellung der Thermodynamik, Physikalische Zeitschrift 22 (1921), 218–224.
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Partial Differential EquationsProbabilityStochastic Systems·Captain: Lucas

Black–Scholes Model: Pricing Formula, PDE and GreeksTextbook

Motivation

The Black–Scholes model (Black and Scholes, 1973; Merton, 1973) is the reference model for pricing European options. Its closed-form price, the Black–Scholes formula, is quoted daily by options markets, its partial derivatives (the Greeks) are the standard risk measures that trading desks limit and hedge, and the Black–Scholes equation is the prototype of the parabolic pricing PDEs that are solved numerically when no closed form exists. Merton and Scholes received the 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for this work.

Timeline. Bachelier (1900) first applied Brownian motion to option pricing. In the 1960s Sprenkle, Boness, Samuelson and Merton refined the theory. Black and Scholes found the risk-neutral hedging argument in 1968 and published the formula in The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities (Journal of Political Economy, 1973); Merton's paper of the same year extended the mathematical framework and coined the name.

Setting

Fix a strike K>0K>0K>0, an expiry TTT, a constant risk-free rate r∈Rr\in\mathbb Rr∈R and a constant volatility σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. At time t<Tt<Tt<T the time to maturity is τ=T−t>0\tau=T-t>0τ=T−t>0 and the spot price of the (non-dividend-paying) stock is S>0S>0S>0. Let

N(x)=12π∫−∞xe−z2/2 dz,N′(x)=12πe−x2/2N(x)=\frac1{\sqrt{2\pi}}\int_{-\infty}^x e^{-z^2/2}\,dz,\qquad N'(x)=\frac1{\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{-x^2/2}N(x)=2π​1​∫−∞x​e−z2/2dz,N′(x)=2π​1​e−x2/2

be the standard normal distribution and density functions, and set

d+=1στ[ln⁡SK+(r+σ22)τ],d−=d+−στ.d_+=\frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{\tau}}\Big[\ln\frac SK+\Big(r+\frac{\sigma^2}2\Big)\tau\Big],\qquad d_-=d_+-\sigma\sqrt\tau .d+​=στ​1​[lnKS​+(r+2σ2​)τ],d−​=d+​−στ​.

The Black–Scholes call and put prices are

C(S,t)=N(d+)S−N(d−)Ke−rτ,P(S,t)=N(−d−)Ke−rτ−N(−d+)S.C(S,t)=N(d_+)S-N(d_-)Ke^{-r\tau},\qquad P(S,t)=N(-d_-)Ke^{-r\tau}-N(-d_+)S .C(S,t)=N(d+​)S−N(d−​)Ke−rτ,P(S,t)=N(−d−​)Ke−rτ−N(−d+​)S.

In the alternative (Black '76) parametrisation one uses the discount factor D=e−rτD=e^{-r\tau}D=e−rτ and the forward price F=erτSF=e^{r\tau}SF=erτS, with d±=1στ[ln⁡FK±12σ2τ]d_\pm=\frac1{\sigma\sqrt\tau}\big[\ln\frac FK\pm\frac12\sigma^2\tau\big]d±​=στ​1​[lnKF​±21​σ2τ], and C=D[N(d+)F−N(d−)K]C=D[N(d_+)F-N(d_-)K]C=D[N(d+​)F−N(d−​)K]. Under the risk-neutral measure the terminal price is ST=Sexp⁡((r−12σ2)τ+στ Z)S_T=S\exp\big((r-\tfrac12\sigma^2)\tau+\sigma\sqrt\tau\,Z\big)ST​=Sexp((r−21​σ2)τ+στ​Z) with ZZZ standard normal.

Formalization targets

Goal: the formula solves the Black–Scholes equation

On the domain {S>0, t<T}\{S>0,\ t<T\}{S>0, t<T} the call price CCC is C∞C^\inftyC∞ and satisfies

∂C∂t+12σ2S2∂2C∂S2+rS∂C∂S−rC=0,\frac{\partial C}{\partial t}+\frac12\sigma^2S^2\frac{\partial^2C}{\partial S^2}+rS\frac{\partial C}{\partial S}-rC=0,∂t∂C​+21​σ2S2∂S2∂2C​+rS∂S∂C​−rC=0,

together with the boundary and terminal conditions C(S,t)→0C(S,t)\to0C(S,t)→0 as S→0+S\to0^+S→0+, C(S,t)−(S−Ke−r(T−t))→0C(S,t)-(S-Ke^{-r(T-t)})\to0C(S,t)−(S−Ke−r(T−t))→0 as S→∞S\to\inftyS→∞, and C(S,t)→max⁡{S−K,0}C(S,t)\to\max\{S-K,0\}C(S,t)→max{S−K,0} as t→T−t\to T^-t→T−.

Milestones

  1. The density N′N'N′ is the derivative of NNN.
  2. The alternative (forward) formulation of the call and put prices.
  3. Put–call parity, P=Ke−rτ−S+CP=Ke^{-r\tau}-S+CP=Ke−rτ−S+C, and its forward form C−P=D(F−K)C-P=D(F-K)C−P=D(F−K).
  4. The Greeks table: Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta and Rho for calls and puts.
  5. Risk-neutral pricing: C=e−rτ E[max⁡(ST−K,0)]C=e^{-r\tau}\,\mathbb E[\max(S_T-K,0)]C=e−rτE[max(ST​−K,0)].
  6. Binary options: cash-or-nothing values e−rτN(±d−)e^{-r\tau}N(\pm d_-)e−rτN(±d−​) and asset-or-nothing values SN(±d+)SN(\pm d_+)SN(±d+​).

Significance

The result. The goal is the statement that ties the model's two faces together: the closed-form price is a classical solution of the pricing PDE with the payoff as terminal datum. The Greeks are what hedging strategies are built from (delta hedging is the core of the model's replication argument), put–call parity is the basic no-arbitrage relation, and the risk-neutral and binary-option identities are the probabilistic reading of the two terms in the formula.

Formalizing it. All results here are classical and proved in textbooks (e.g. Hull, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives). The work is formalization: building a reusable, machine-checked library for the normal distribution function, the Black–Scholes price and its sensitivities, and Gaussian expectations of log-normal payoffs, on top of Mathlib's real analysis and its Gaussian measure gaussianReal.

Difficulty

Each identity is elementary on paper, but the calculus is long: every Greek requires differentiating N∘d±N\circ d_\pmN∘d±​ through a logarithm, a square root and a quotient, and the simplifications rest on the identity SN′(d+)=Ke−rτN′(d−)SN'(d_+)=Ke^{-r\tau}N'(d_-)SN′(d+​)=Ke−rτN′(d−​). The limits in the goal need Gaussian tail estimates (e.g. SN(−d+)→0SN(-d_+)\to0SN(−d+​)→0 as S→∞S\to\inftyS→∞, where SSS grows while N(−d+)N(-d_+)N(−d+​) decays). The risk-neutral identities require computing Gaussian integrals over half-lines with an exponential weight, i.e. a change of variables shifting the mean of the normal distribution.

Formalization scope

All objects are real-valued and deterministic: NNN is defined by the integral formula above (a Lebesgue integral over (−∞,x](-\infty,x](−∞,x]), N′N'N′ by its closed form, and prices by the formulas, as functions of (S,t)(S,t)(S,t) with parameters (K,r,σ,T)(K,r,\sigma,T)(K,r,σ,T). Partial derivatives are stated with HasDerivAt (genuine differentiability plus the value), except in the goal's PDE, where deriv is used together with an explicit C∞C^\inftyC∞ clause on the open domain. Each theorem carries the standing assumptions K>0K>0K>0, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, S>0S>0S>0, t<Tt<Tt<T where they are needed; the parity identities hold without them and are stated unconditionally. At S=0S=0S=0 and t=Tt=Tt=T the formula is undefined in the source, so the boundary and terminal conditions are stated as one-sided limits rather than values. Risk-neutral expectations are integrals against the standard Gaussian gaussianReal 0 1 of an explicit log-normal terminal price; no stochastic calculus (Itô integrals, SDEs, Girsanov, Feynman–Kac) is required or formalized. The dividend-paying extensions, American options and the perpetual put are out of scope; binary options are formalized for the non-dividend case q=0q=0q=0.

Contributions of reusable lemmas (derivative of NNN, symmetry N(x)+N(−x)=1N(x)+N(-x)=1N(x)+N(−x)=1, limits of NNN at ±∞\pm\infty±∞, Gaussian half-line integrals) are welcome.

Selected references

  • F. Black, M. Scholes, The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities, Journal of Political Economy 81(3), 1973. https://doi.org/10.1086/260062
  • R. C. Merton, Theory of Rational Option Pricing, Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4(1), 1973. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003143
  • J. C. Hull, Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, Pearson.
  • Wikipedia, Black–Scholes model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black%E2%80%93Scholes_model
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Number Theory·Captain: Lucas

Dirichlet's Unit Theorem and the RegulatorTextbook

Motivation

The units of a ring of algebraic integers control much of the arithmetic of a number field. They decide when two generators of the same principal ideal differ, they enter the analytic class number formula through the regulator, and for real quadratic fields they are the solutions of Pell's equation x2−dy2=±1x^2 - dy^2 = \pm 1x2−dy2=±1. Dirichlet's unit theorem (Dirichlet, 1846) determines the structure of this unit group completely: it is finitely generated, and its rank is computed from the way the field embeds into R\mathbb RR and C\mathbb CC. With the finiteness of the class group, it is one of the two basic finiteness theorems of algebraic number theory and appears in every introductory text on the subject.

This mission follows the account of the theorem, the regulator and its standard examples given in the Wikipedia article Dirichlet's unit theorem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirichlet%27s_unit_theorem).

Setting

A number field KKK is a field containing Q\mathbb QQ with finite dimension n=[K:Q]n = [K:\mathbb Q]n=[K:Q] as a Q\mathbb QQ-vector space. Its ring of integers OK\mathcal O_KOK​ consists of the elements of KKK that are roots of monic polynomials with integer coefficients, and its unit group OK×\mathcal O_K^\timesOK×​ is the group of invertible elements of OK\mathcal O_KOK​.

The field KKK has exactly nnn field embeddings σ:K→C\sigma : K \to \mathbb Cσ:K→C. Let r1r_1r1​ be the number of embeddings with image in R\mathbb RR, and r2r_2r2​ the number of pairs of complex-conjugate non-real embeddings, so that n=r1+2r2n = r_1 + 2r_2n=r1​+2r2​. Equivalently, r1r_1r1​ and r2r_2r2​ count the real and complex infinite places www of KKK, i.e. the absolute values ∣x∣w=∣σ(x)∣|x|_w = |\sigma(x)|∣x∣w​=∣σ(x)∣. Write Nw=1N_w = 1Nw​=1 for a real place and Nw=2N_w = 2Nw​=2 for a complex place.

The rank of an abelian group is the largest number of elements that are independent over Z\mathbb ZZ. For OK×\mathcal O_K^\timesOK×​ this is the largest number of multiplicatively independent units. Units of finite order are exactly the roots of unity in KKK.

Put r=r1+r2−1r = r_1 + r_2 - 1r=r1​+r2​−1. If u1,…,uru_1, \dots, u_ru1​,…,ur​ generate OK×\mathcal O_K^\timesOK×​ modulo roots of unity, the r×(r+1)r \times (r+1)r×(r+1) matrix (Nwlog⁡∣ui∣w)\big(N_w \log |u_i|_w\big)(Nw​log∣ui​∣w​) has every row summing to 000. The absolute value RRR of the determinant of the square matrix left after deleting any one column is the regulator of KKK.

Formalization targets

Goal: Dirichlet's unit theorem

OK× is finitely generated and rank⁡OK×=r1+r2−1.\mathcal O_K^\times \text{ is finitely generated and } \operatorname{rank}\mathcal O_K^\times = r_1 + r_2 - 1.OK×​ is finitely generated and rankOK×​=r1​+r2​−1.

Milestones

  1. The signature identity n=r1+2r2n = r_1 + 2r_2n=r1​+2r2​. If K/QK/\mathbb QK/Q is Galois, then r1=0r_1 = 0r1​=0 or r2=0r_2 = 0r2​=0.
  2. Two other ways to compute (r1,r2)(r_1, r_2)(r1​,r2​): real and non-real roots of the minimal polynomial of a primitive element, and R⊗QK≅Rr1×Cr2\mathbb R \otimes_{\mathbb Q} K \cong \mathbb R^{r_1} \times \mathbb C^{r_2}R⊗Q​K≅Rr1​×Cr2​.
  3. Quadratic fields have unit rank 111 when real and 000 when imaginary. The rank is positive except for Q\mathbb QQ and imaginary quadratic fields.
  4. Torsion: the torsion units are the roots of unity and form a finite cyclic group. When KKK has a real embedding they are ±1\pm 1±1.
  5. Rank equality in a proper extension L/KL/KL/K holds exactly when KKK is totally real and L/KL/KL/K is a totally complex quadratic extension.
  6. The unit theorem for an arbitrary order O⊆OK\mathcal O \subseteq \mathcal O_KO⊆OK​.
  7. The logarithmic picture: ∑wNwlog⁡∣u∣w=0\sum_w N_w \log |u|_w = 0∑w​Nw​log∣u∣w​=0 for every unit, and the vectors (Nwlog⁡∣u∣w)w\big(N_w \log |u|_w\big)_w(Nw​log∣u∣w​)w​ form a lattice in the hyperplane of coordinate sum 000.
  8. The regulator does not depend on the generators or on the deleted column, and it is positive.
  9. Examples: Reg⁡=1\operatorname{Reg} = 1Reg=1 for Q\mathbb QQ and imaginary quadratic fields. Reg⁡(Q(5))=log⁡1+52\operatorname{Reg}(\mathbb Q(\sqrt5)) = \log\frac{1+\sqrt5}{2}Reg(Q(5​))=log21+5​​. For the cyclic cubic field defined by x3+x2−2x−1x^3 + x^2 - 2x - 1x3+x2−2x−1, the fundamental units are α2+α−1\alpha^2 + \alpha - 1α2+α−1 and 2−α22 - \alpha^22−α2, and Reg⁡≈0.5255\operatorname{Reg} \approx 0.5255Reg≈0.5255.

Significance

The result itself. The unit theorem gives OK×≅μ(K)×Zr1+r2−1\mathcal O_K^\times \cong \mu(K) \times \mathbb Z^{r_1 + r_2 - 1}OK×​≅μ(K)×Zr1​+r2​−1. This is the input for the analytic class number formula, where the regulator appears next to the class number. It also yields the finiteness of solutions of norm-form and SSS-unit problems and the structure of solutions of Pell's equation. It is the model for Hasse and Chevalley's SSS-unit theorem and for Leopoldt's conjecture on ppp-adic regulators.

Formalizing it. The theorem itself is classical and has already been formalized: Mathlib contains the unit group's rank, a system of fundamental units and a regulator in its NumberField.Units development. This mission adds the surrounding statements of the source article as explicit, independently checkable targets. These are the alternative descriptions of the signature, the rank in quadratic fields and in extensions, the unit theorem for non-maximal orders, the well-definedness of the regulator in the generator-free form given in the article, and the worked examples. The examples involve explicit numerical regulator values that are not in the library.

Difficulty

The upper bound on the rank follows by showing that the logarithmic image of the units is discrete. The hard part is the lower bound: one must produce r1+r2−1r_1 + r_2 - 1r1​+r2​−1 independent units. This requires constructing units of prescribed size at the infinite places. The obvious approach of writing down units explicitly does not work in general. The standard route uses Minkowski's geometry of numbers. The examples carry their own difficulty: showing that given units are fundamental and pinning a regulator to four decimal places takes certified bounds, not just exhibiting units. The statement for orders requires passing between O×\mathcal O^\timesO× and OK×\mathcal O_K^\timesOK×​ through a finite-index argument.

Formalization scope

Statements are in Lean 4 over Mathlib, in the namespace DirichletUnitTheorem. They use Mathlib's notions directly: NumberField, 𝓞 K, InfinitePlace, nrRealPlaces/nrComplexPlaces for r1r_1r1​/r2r_2r2​, InfinitePlace.mult for NwN_wNw​, IsTotallyReal/IsTotallyComplex for real/imaginary quadratic fields, and NumberField.Units.regulator for the regulator in the example milestones. The rank is Module.rank ℤ of the additive version of the unit group. This is a cardinal, so finite generation and the rank are stated separately. An order is a subring of OK\mathcal O_KOK​ of finite additive index. Approximate numerical values from the source are encoded as open intervals.

Units of finite order are written with IsOfFinOrder, so no statement depends on a particular torsion API. The goal is not trivialized by the truncated subtraction in r1+r2−1r_1 + r_2 - 1r1​+r2​−1, because r1+r2≥1r_1 + r_2 \ge 1r1​+r2​≥1 always holds.

Welcome contributions include proofs that bridge to the existing Mathlib development, certified numerical bounds for regulators, and the order and extension statements, which are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia contributors, Dirichlet's unit theorem, Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirichlet%27s_unit_theorem
  • J. Neukirch, Algebraic Number Theory, Grundlehren 322, Springer, 1999, Chapter I §7. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-03983-0
  • H. Cohen, A Course in Computational Algebraic Number Theory, GTM 138, Springer, 1993, Table B.4. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-02945-9
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Supply and Demand I: Comparative Statics of Market EquilibriumTextbook

Motivation

Supply and demand is the basic model of price determination in a perfectly competitive market: holding everything else fixed, the price of a good adjusts until the quantity buyers want equals the quantity sellers offer. The model is the standard first chapter of microeconomics, it underlies partial-equilibrium policy analysis (taxes, subsidies, price controls), and it is applied to labour markets (with the wage as the price) and money markets (with the interest rate as the price). See the Wikipedia article, which is the source of this mission.

Timeline. Demand curves were first drawn by Cournot (1838); supply curves were added by Fleeming Jenkin (1870), who also drew the first comparative-statics diagrams of a curve shift; Marshall's Principles of Economics (1890) popularised the "Marshallian cross". Qualitative versions of the comparative-statics law are much older: Ibn Taymiyyah (14th century) wrote that "if desire for goods increases while its availability decreases, its price rises".

Setting

Prices and quantities are real numbers. A supply curve is a function S:R→RS:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RS:R→R giving the quantity supplied at each price, and a demand curve is a function D:R→RD:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RD:R→R giving the quantity demanded. A set I⊆RI\subseteq\mathbb RI⊆R of admissible prices is fixed (for example all reals, or the positive reals). Supply is upward-sloping: SSS is strictly increasing on III. Demand is downward-sloping (the law of demand): DDD is strictly decreasing on III.

A pair (p,q)(p,q)(p,q) is a market equilibrium of (S,D)(S,D)(S,D), written IsEquilibrium(S,D,p,q)\mathrm{IsEquilibrium}(S,D,p,q)IsEquilibrium(S,D,p,q), when

D(p)=qandS(p)=q,D(p)=q \quad\text{and}\quad S(p)=q,D(p)=qandS(p)=q,

i.e. the market clears at price ppp with quantity qqq transacted.

An increase in demand (a right shift of the demand curve) from D1D_1D1​ to D2D_2D2​ means D1(p)<D2(p)D_1(p)<D_2(p)D1​(p)<D2​(p) for every admissible price ppp; an increase in supply from S1S_1S1​ to S2S_2S2​ means S1(p)<S2(p)S_1(p)<S_2(p)S1​(p)<S2​(p) for every admissible price.

The market curve of finitely many individual curves fif_ifi​, i∈si\in si∈s, is their horizontal sum p↦∑i∈sfi(p)p\mapsto\sum_{i\in s}f_i(p)p↦∑i∈s​fi​(p). The point elasticity of a curve QQQ at PPP is Q′(P) P/Q(P)Q'(P)\,P/Q(P)Q′(P)P/Q(P). The article's example curves are Q(P)=3P−6Q(P)=3P-6Q(P)=3P−6 and Q(P)=5P0.5Q(P)=5P^{0.5}Q(P)=5P0.5 (supply) and Q(P)=32−2PQ(P)=32-2PQ(P)=32−2P and Q(P)=3P−2Q(P)=3P^{-2}Q(P)=3P−2 (demand).

Formalization targets

Goal: comparative statics of a curve shift

For upward-sloping supply and downward-sloping demand on III, with equilibria at admissible prices:

  1. if demand increases from D1D_1D1​ to D2D_2D2​ (supply SSS fixed), equilibria (p1,q1)(p_1,q_1)(p1​,q1​) of (S,D1)(S,D_1)(S,D1​) and (p2,q2)(p_2,q_2)(p2​,q2​) of (S,D2)(S,D_2)(S,D2​) satisfy
p1<p2andq1<q2;p_1<p_2\quad\text{and}\quad q_1<q_2;p1​<p2​andq1​<q2​;
  1. if supply increases from S1S_1S1​ to S2S_2S2​ (demand DDD fixed), equilibria (p1,q1)(p_1,q_1)(p1​,q1​) of (S1,D)(S_1,D)(S1​,D) and (p2,q2)(p_2,q_2)(p2​,q2​) of (S2,D)(S_2,D)(S2​,D) satisfy
p2<p1andq1<q2.p_2<p_1\quad\text{and}\quad q_1<q_2.p2​<p1​andq1​<q2​.

The corresponding statements for decreases (left shifts) are the same statements with the indices 1,21,21,2 exchanged.

Milestones

  • uniqueness of the equilibrium for strictly monotone curves;
  • the demand-shift and supply-shift laws separately;
  • the Ibn Taymiyyah law for simultaneous shifts: demand up and supply down raises the price, and demand down and supply up lowers it;
  • horizontal aggregation preserves the slope of supply and demand curves;
  • the article's example curves have the stated slopes, the isoelastic curves have the stated log-linear forms, and their point elasticities are the constants 0.50.50.5 and −2-2−2.

Significance

The comparative-statics laws are the qualitative predictions that make the supply-and-demand model usable: they say in which direction price and quantity move after a change in a non-price determinant (tastes, incomes, input costs, technology). The simultaneous-shift law is the precise form of the qualitative statement quoted above, and it also records what the model does not predict (the direction of the quantity change is left open).

These results are classical and elementary. The point of this mission is a clean, reusable formal vocabulary for partial-equilibrium market models (equilibrium, curve shifts, market curves, elasticity) on which later missions about taxes, surplus, and elasticity can build.

Difficulty

The mathematics is elementary; the care is in the modelling. Two traps: assuming the equilibria exist and lie in the admissible price set is necessary (the article's linear supply curve is negative for P<2P<2P<2, and the isoelastic curves are only meaningful for P>0P>0P>0); and the law of demand or of supply cannot be dropped, since for an upward-sloping demand curve (Veblen or Giffen goods, discussed in the article) the comparative-statics conclusions can fail.

Formalization scope

All curves are total functions R→R\mathbb R\to\mathbb RR→R; slope assumptions are imposed only on the admissible set III, an arbitrary set of reals, and every equilibrium price is assumed to lie in III. Strict monotonicity is used for both supply and demand, as in the article's figures and its law of demand. Existence of an equilibrium is not asserted; the statements are about given equilibria. Real powers P0.5P^{0.5}P0.5 and P−2P^{-2}P−2 are Mathlib's Real.rpow, and statements about them are restricted to P>0P>0P>0. The point elasticity uses Mathlib's deriv.

The definitions live in a single definition file, SupplyDemand_Model, in the namespace SupplyDemand, shared by all statements.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia contributors, "Supply and demand", revision 1378800284, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Supply_and_demand&oldid=1378800284
  • A. A. Cournot, Recherches sur les principes mathématiques de la théorie des richesses, 1838.
  • F. Jenkin, "The Graphical Representation of the Laws of Supply and Demand, and their Application to Labour", in Recess Studies, 1870, https://books.google.com/books?id=NC5BAAAAIAAJ
  • A. Marshall, Principles of Economics, Macmillan, 1890.
  • T. M. Humphrey, "Marshallian Cross Diagrams and their Uses before Alfred Marshall", Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond), Mar/Apr 1992, 3–23.
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Comparative Advantage I: Gains from Trade in the Ricardian ModelTextbook

Motivation

Comparative advantage is the principle that two parties can both gain from trade even when one of them is more productive at producing every good. It is usually credited to David Ricardo's On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation (1817), with earlier formulations in an anonymous 1814 pamphlet and in Robert Torrens' Essay on the External Corn Trade (1815). It is widely described as one of the most powerful yet counter-intuitive insights in economics, and it underlies the standard argument that trade patterns are driven by relative, not absolute, productivity.

A short timeline of the two-country, two-good theory:

  • 1776 — Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations: trade based on absolute advantage.
  • 1814–1815 — anonymous pamphlet Considerations on the Importation of Foreign Corn; Torrens, Essay on the External Corn Trade: first formulations of comparative advantage.
  • 1817 — Ricardo's England/Portugal example with cloth and wine.
  • 1833 — William Whewell publishes the first mathematical Ricardian model.
  • 1930 — Gottfried Haberler restates comparative advantage in terms of opportunity costs and production possibility curves.

Setting

The Ricardian model has two countries, Home and Foreign, and two goods, cloth and wine. Labour is the only factor of production; it moves freely between sectors inside a country but not between countries. Home has a labour force L>0L>0L>0; producing one unit of cloth takes aLC>0a_{LC}>0aLC​>0 units of labour and one unit of wine takes aLW>0a_{LW}>0aLW​>0. Foreign's data are written with a prime: L′L'L′, aLC′a'_{LC}aLC′​, aLW′a'_{LW}aLW′​.

Home has a comparative advantage in cloth when its opportunity cost of cloth in terms of wine is lower than Foreign's:

aLCaLW<aLC′aLW′,\frac{a_{LC}}{a_{LW}}<\frac{a'_{LC}}{a'_{LW}},aLW​aLC​​<aLW′​aLC′​​,

which is the same as saying that Home is relatively more productive in cloth, aLC/aLC′<aLW/aLW′a_{LC}/a'_{LC}<a_{LW}/a'_{LW}aLC​/aLC′​<aLW​/aLW′​. Nothing is assumed about absolute productivity.

In autarky a country can produce and consume any bundle (QC,QW)≥0(Q_C,Q_W)\ge 0(QC​,QW​)≥0 with aLCQC+aLWQW≤La_{LC}Q_C+a_{LW}Q_W\le LaLC​QC​+aLW​QW​≤L. Under free trade both goods sell at world prices PC,PW>0P_C,P_W>0PC​,PW​>0; the wage in the cloth sector is PC/aLCP_C/a_{LC}PC​/aLC​ and in the wine sector PW/aLWP_W/a_{LW}PW​/aLW​, and workers move to the sector with the higher wage. A country that produces only cloth and trades at the world relative price PC/PWP_C/P_WPC​/PW​ can consume any bundle with aLCQC+aLC(PW/PC)QW≤La_{LC}Q_C+a_{LC}(P_W/P_C)Q_W\le LaLC​QC​+aLC​(PW​/PC​)QW​≤L; a country that produces only wine can consume any bundle with aLW(PC/PW)QC+aLWQW≤La_{LW}(P_C/P_W)Q_C+a_{LW}Q_W\le LaLW​(PC​/PW​)QC​+aLW​QW​≤L.

Formalization targets

Goal: gains from trade

If Home has a comparative advantage in cloth and the world relative price lies between the two autarky prices,

aLCaLW≤PCPW≤aLC′aLW′,\frac{a_{LC}}{a_{LW}}\le\frac{P_C}{P_W}\le\frac{a'_{LC}}{a'_{LW}},aLW​aLC​​≤PW​PC​​≤aLW′​aLC′​​,

then Home's autarky set is contained in its consumption set when it specializes in cloth, and Foreign's autarky set is contained in its consumption set when it specializes in wine. When the corresponding inequality is strict, the inclusion is strict: the country can consume bundles it could not produce itself.

Milestones

  1. The two forms of the comparative-advantage assumption are equivalent.
  2. The five-case description of world relative supply: who specializes in what at each relative price.
  3. As long as relative demand is finite, the equilibrium relative price lies between the two autarky prices.
  4. The autarky production possibility frontier QC=L/aLC−(aLW/aLC)QWQ_C=L/a_{LC}-(a_{LW}/a_{LC})Q_WQC​=L/aLC​−(aLW​/aLC​)QW​.
  5. The free-trade consumption possibility frontier QC=L/aLC−(PW/PC)QWQ_C=L/a_{LC}-(P_W/P_C)Q_WQC​=L/aLC​−(PW​/PC​)QW​ lies on or above the autarky frontier.
  6. Terms of trade: specializing in a good leaves a country no worse off exactly when the world price lies on the right side of its own opportunity cost.
  7. Ricardo's numerical example: absolute and comparative advantage, the gain in world output from specialization, and terms of trade between 5/65/65/6 and 9/89/89/8 units of wine per unit of cloth.

Significance

The result is the textbook form of the classical argument for specialization and trade: the gain does not depend on either country being absolutely more productive, only on a difference in relative labour costs. The price-bound milestone says where world prices can settle, and the terms-of-trade milestone says that both countries gain exactly at prices between their opportunity costs. Ricardo's numbers make the general statements concrete.

These are classical results with elementary proofs. The value of the mission is a reusable, precisely stated Ricardian model — definitions of countries, autarky sets, trade consumption sets and competitive outputs — on which later missions in this series (many goods, many countries, the Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson continuum, Haberler's production possibility curves) can build.

Difficulty

There is no deep obstacle; the work is in stating the model faithfully. The obvious shortcut is to compare autarky and trade only at the two corner bundles, or to drop the wage-based description of who produces what and simply assume each country specializes. The milestones instead derive specialization from the wage comparison, so the five-case relative-supply statement has to cover the boundary prices where workers are indifferent and output is not unique.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. A country is a structure carrying LLL, aLCa_{LC}aLC​, aLWa_{LW}aLW​ and proofs that all three are positive, so no unit labour requirement can be zero. Prices PC,PWP_C,P_WPC​,PW​ are explicit arguments with positivity hypotheses wherever they are divided by. Bundles are pairs (QC,QW)∈R2(Q_C,Q_W)\in\mathbb R^2(QC​,QW​)∈R2. A competitive output is a bundle with full employment (aLCQC+aLWQW=La_{LC}Q_C+a_{LW}Q_W=LaLC​QC​+aLW​QW​=L, QC,QW≥0Q_C,Q_W\ge 0QC​,QW​≥0) in which a sector produces only if its wage is at least the other sector's wage. Relative demand is not modelled as a function; the price bound is stated for any competitive outputs whose world cloth and world wine supplies are both strictly positive (finite, nonzero relative supply, as market clearing with a finite positive relative demand requires). The comparative-advantage hypothesis is kept in the goal as the section's standing assumption, although the price-bound hypotheses imply its non-strict form.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones and the goal, and follow-up missions extending the model to many goods or many countries.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia contributors, Comparative advantage, Wikipedia (PDF export supplied with the proposal). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
  • D. Ricardo, On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, John Murray, London, 1817. https://www.econlib.org/library/Ricardo/ricP.html
  • P. Krugman, M. Obstfeld, M. Melitz, International Economics: Theory and Policy, Pearson (chapter on the Ricardian model).
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ProbabilityStatistics·Captain: Lucas

Zipf's Law: the Zipf Distribution, its Infinite Extension and Related LawsTextbook

Motivation

Zipf's law is the empirical observation that when a set of measured values is sorted in decreasing order, the value of the nnn-th entry is often approximately inversely proportional to nnn. Its best-known instance is word frequency in natural language: in the Brown Corpus the most frequent word, "the", accounts for nearly 7%7\%7% of all word occurrences, the second, "of", for slightly over 3.5%3.5\%3.5%, and so on. The same rank–size relation has been reported for city populations (Auerbach 1913), firm sizes (Axtell 2001), and many other data sets; it is named after the linguist George Kingsley Zipf (1932, 1935, 1949) and remains a central concept of quantitative linguistics (Piantadosi 2014).

In mathematical statistics the law is formalized as the Zipf distribution, a family of discrete probability distributions whose rank–frequency relation is an inverse power law, together with its relatives: the zeta distribution (Lotka's law), the Zipf–Mandelbrot law and the Yule–Simon distribution. Several generative explanations — random typing (Miller 1957, Li 1992) and preferential attachment — produce power laws by provable mechanisms.

Timeline of the results formalized here:

  • 1913–1932 — Auerbach (city sizes), Estoup (1916), Dewey (1923), Condon (1928) and Zipf (1932) observe the inverse rank–frequency relation.
  • 1957 — Miller: a power law emerges in randomly generated texts (doi:10.2307/1419346).
  • 1992 — Li: in random texts with equiprobable letters, word frequency follows Zipf's macro-trend (doi:10.1109/18.165464).

Setting

For a real exponent sss and an integer N≥1N \ge 1N≥1, the generalized harmonic number is

HN,s=∑k=1N1ks,HN=HN,1.H_{N,s} = \sum_{k=1}^{N}\frac{1}{k^s}, \qquad H_N = H_{N,1}.HN,s​=k=1∑N​ks1​,HN​=HN,1​.

The Zipf distribution on NNN elements with exponent sss assigns to the element of rank k∈{1,…,N}k \in\{1,\dots,N\}k∈{1,…,N} the probability

f(k;N,s)=1HN,s 1ks.f(k;N,s) = \frac{1}{H_{N,s}}\,\frac{1}{k^{s}} .f(k;N,s)=HN,s​1​ks1​.

The classical Zipf law is s=1s=1s=1. The source lists the parameter range s≥0s\ge0s≥0, N∈{1,2,3,… }N\in\{1,2,3,\dots\}N∈{1,2,3,…}.

The Riemann zeta function is ζ(s)=∑k≥1k−s\zeta(s)=\sum_{k\ge1}k^{-s}ζ(s)=∑k≥1​k−s for s>1s>1s>1. The Hurwitz zeta function is ζ(s,a)=∑n≥0(n+a)−s\zeta(s,a)=\sum_{n\ge0}(n+a)^{-s}ζ(s,a)=∑n≥0​(n+a)−s. The Zipf–Mandelbrot law on ranks k=1,2,…k=1,2,\dotsk=1,2,… with shift qqq and exponent sss is f(k;q,s)=1C1(k+q)sf(k;q,s)=\frac{1}{C}\frac{1}{(k+q)^s}f(k;q,s)=C1​(k+q)s1​ with C=ζ(s,q+1)C=\zeta(s,q+1)C=ζ(s,q+1). The Yule–Simon distribution with parameter ρ>0\rho>0ρ>0 is f(k;ρ)=ρ B(k,ρ+1)=ρ Γ(k)Γ(ρ+1)/Γ(k+ρ+1)f(k;\rho)=\rho\,B(k,\rho+1)=\rho\,\Gamma(k)\Gamma(\rho+1)/\Gamma(k+\rho+1)f(k;ρ)=ρB(k,ρ+1)=ρΓ(k)Γ(ρ+1)/Γ(k+ρ+1), k=1,2,…k = 1, 2, \dotsk=1,2,….

Formalization targets

Goal — the infinite-item extension

For s≥0s \ge 0s≥0:

∑k≥11ks<∞  ⟺  s>1;s>1  ⟹  HN,s→N→∞ζ(s);s≤1  ⟹  HN,s→N→∞∞.\sum_{k\ge1}\frac1{k^s}<\infty \iff s>1;\qquad s>1 \implies H_{N,s}\xrightarrow[N\to\infty]{}\zeta(s);\qquad s\le1 \implies H_{N,s}\xrightarrow[N\to\infty]{}\infty .k≥1∑​ks1​<∞⟺s>1;s>1⟹HN,s​N→∞​ζ(s);s≤1⟹HN,s​N→∞​∞.

That is, the generalized Zipf distribution extends to infinitely many items exactly when s>1s>1s>1, in which case the normalizing constant becomes Riemann's zeta function.

Milestones

  1. Normalization: ∑k=1Nf(k;N,s)=1\sum_{k=1}^N f(k;N,s)=1∑k=1N​f(k;N,s)=1.
  2. CDF: ∑k=1nf(k;N,s)=Hn,s/HN,s\sum_{k=1}^n f(k;N,s)=H_{n,s}/H_{N,s}∑k=1n​f(k;N,s)=Hn,s​/HN,s​ for n≤Nn\le Nn≤N.
  3. Mean: ∑kk f(k;N,s)=HN,s−1/HN,s\sum_{k} k\,f(k;N,s)=H_{N,s-1}/H_{N,s}∑k​kf(k;N,s)=HN,s−1​/HN,s​.
  4. Variance: HN,s−2HN,s−HN,s−12HN,s2\frac{H_{N,s-2}}{H_{N,s}}-\frac{H_{N,s-1}^2}{H_{N,s}^2}HN,s​HN,s−2​​−HN,s2​HN,s−12​​.
  5. Entropy: sHN,s∑k=1Nln⁡kks+ln⁡HN,s\frac{s}{H_{N,s}}\sum_{k=1}^N\frac{\ln k}{k^s}+\ln H_{N,s}HN,s​s​∑k=1N​kslnk​+lnHN,s​.
  6. Mode: rank 111 is a most probable element (for s≥0s \ge 0s≥0).
  7. Ratio: f(1;N,s)/f(n;N,s)=nsf(1;N,s)/f(n;N,s)=n^sf(1;N,s)/f(n;N,s)=ns — "the most common word occurs about nnn times the nnn-th most common one" when s=1s = 1s=1.
  8. Log–log linearity: ln⁡f(k;N,s)=−sln⁡k−ln⁡HN,s\ln f(k;N,s) = -s\ln k-\ln H_{N,s}lnf(k;N,s)=−slnk−lnHN,s​, an affine function of ln⁡k\ln klnk with slope −s-s−s.
  9. Zipf–Mandelbrot: with C=ζ(s,q+1)C=\zeta(s,q+1)C=ζ(s,q+1) the law is a probability distribution (s>1s>1s>1, q≥0q\ge0q≥0).
  10. Yule–Simon tail: f(k;ρ)∼C/kρ+1f(k;\rho)\sim C/k^{\rho+1}f(k;ρ)∼C/kρ+1 for some constant C>0C>0C>0.
  11. Random typing (Li): word probability is bounded above and below by a power of the rank.
  12. Benford connection: the leading digits of a Zipf (s=1s=1s=1) random rank follow Benford's law as N→∞N\to\inftyN→∞.

Significance

The goal pins down exactly when "Zipf's law with infinitely many items" makes sense, and identifies the resulting distribution (the zeta distribution) with Riemann's zeta function. The milestones are the infobox facts that statisticians use when fitting Zipf models (CDF, mean, variance, entropy, mode), the log–log diagnostic used to test data against the law, two of the related laws the source lists (Zipf–Mandelbrot, Yule–Simon), one of the generative explanations (random typing), and the stated link to Benford's law.

The results are classical; the work is formalizing them. Most milestones are finite algebra about HN,sH_{N,s}HN,s​; the goal, the Yule–Simon tail, the random-typing bound and the Benford connection need analysis.

Difficulty

The finite identities are routine once the support conventions are fixed. The analytic content is concentrated in four places. The goal needs the ppp-series test and the identification of the limit with Mathlib's complex riemannZeta, which is defined by analytic continuation rather than by the series. The Yule–Simon tail needs the asymptotics Γ(k)/Γ(k+a)∼k−a\Gamma(k)/\Gamma(k+a)\sim k^{-a}Γ(k)/Γ(k+a)∼k−a. The random-typing bound requires controlling the rank of a word through the number of strictly shorter words, uniformly over every rank order compatible with the probabilities. The Benford connection requires comparing the harmonic sums over each block of integers with a fixed leading digit with ln⁡(1+1/d)\ln(1+1/d)ln(1+1/d), with an error that is negligible against HN∼ln⁡NH_N\sim\ln NHN​∼lnN.

Formalization scope

  • HN,sH_{N,s}HN,s​ uses a real exponent (Real.rpow); H0,s=0H_{0,s}=0H0,s​=0.
  • zipfPMF N s k is defined for every natural kkk and is 000 outside the support {1,…,N}\{1,\dots,N\}{1,…,N}. Statements that need a nonempty support assume N≥1N\ge1N≥1.
  • The goal states convergence to the complex number riemannZeta s of the real partial sums viewed as complex numbers, and divergence as Tendsto … atTop atTop. The source's parameter range s≥0s\ge0s≥0 is kept as a hypothesis.
  • The Hurwitz zeta function is defined by its series (value 000 when the series diverges); the Zipf–Mandelbrot law is the infinite-item version on ranks k≥1k\ge1k≥1, with q≥0q\ge0q≥0.
  • The Yule–Simon distribution is defined through the Gamma function; the tail statement asserts existence of a positive constant, matching the source's "[constant]".
  • Random typing is formalized in Li's equiprobable model: m≥2m\ge2m≥2 letters each typed with probability q>0q>0q>0, a space with probability 1−mq>01-mq>01−mq>0, and a word www has probability q∣w∣(1−mq)q^{|w|}(1-mq)q∣w∣(1−mq). "Sorted by rank" means any bijection eee from N\mathbb NN onto the nonempty words along which the probability is non-increasing; the conclusion is a two-sided power-law bound with exponent log⁡m(1/q)\log_m(1/q)logm​(1/q).
  • The Benford connection uses the leading decimal digit of the rank kkk, with kkk drawn from the Zipf distribution with s=1s=1s=1.
  • Not formalized: the empirical claims (word, city, income data), the atlas-model result, Belevitch's Taylor-series argument, the parabolic fractal distribution and the Pareto exchange of variables; their statements in the source are not precise enough to formalize faithfully.

Selected references

  • G. K. Zipf, Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort, Addison-Wesley, 1949. https://archive.org/details/in.ernet.dli.2015.90211
  • E. U. Condon, Statistics of vocabulary, Science 67 (1928), 300. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.67.1733.300
  • G. A. Miller, Some effects of intermittent silence, American Journal of Psychology 70 (1957), 311–314. https://doi.org/10.2307/1419346
  • W. Li, Random texts exhibit Zipf's-law-like word frequency distribution, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 38 (1992), 1842–1845. https://doi.org/10.1109/18.165464
  • B. Conrad, M. Mitzenmacher, Power laws for monkeys typing randomly: the case of unequal probabilities, IEEE Trans. Inform. Theory 50 (2004), 1403–1414. https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.2004.830752
  • R. L. Axtell, Zipf distribution of U.S. firm sizes, Science 293 (2001), 1818–1820. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1062081
  • M. E. J. Newman, Power laws, Pareto distributions and Zipf's law, Contemporary Physics 46 (2005), 323–351. https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0412004
  • S. T. Piantadosi, Zipf's word frequency law in natural language: a critical review and future directions, Psychon. Bull. Rev. 21 (2014), 1112–1130. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-014-0585-6
  • Wikipedia, Zipf's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zipf%27s_law
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Number TheoryProbability·Captain: Lucas

Benford's Law: Leading Digits of Powers, Fibonacci Numbers and FactorialsTextbook

Motivation

Benford's law (also the Newcomb–Benford law, or first-digit law) is the observation that in many real-life collections of numbers the leading significant digit is small far more often than a uniform guess would suggest: the digit 111 leads about 30.1%30.1\%30.1% of the time and the digit 999 less than 5%5\%5% of the time. Simon Newcomb noticed in 1881 that the early pages of logarithm tables were more worn than the later ones and proposed that digit ddd leads with probability log⁡10(d+1)−log⁡10d\log_{10}(d+1)-\log_{10} dlog10​(d+1)−log10​d (Newcomb 1881); Frank Benford rediscovered the law in 1938 and tested it on 20,229 observations from 20 domains (Benford 1938). The law is used today as a screening statistic in forensic accounting, election forensics and the detection of fabricated scientific data.

Beyond empirical data, many classical integer sequences satisfy the law exactly, in the asymptotic sense: the powers of 222, the powers of any integer kkk with log⁡10k\log_{10} klog10​k irrational, the Fibonacci numbers and the factorials. These are theorems, and they are the core of this mission.

Timeline of the mathematical results formalized here:

  • 1881 — Newcomb states the first-digit law (doi:10.2307/2369148).
  • 1938 — Benford's empirical study (JSTOR 984802).
  • 1961 — Pinkham: a scale-invariant first-digit law must be logarithmic (doi:10.1214/aoms/1177704862).
  • 1967, 1981 — Duncan and Washington: the Fibonacci numbers are Benford (doi:10.1080/00150517.1967.12431312, doi:10.1080/00150517.1981.12430109).
  • 1976 — Raimi's survey "The first digit problem" (doi:10.2307/2319349).
  • 1995 — Hill: base invariance and a statistical derivation; the distribution of digits beyond the first (doi:10.1214/ss/1177009869, doi:10.1080/00029890.1995.11990578).

Setting

Fix an integer base b≥2b \ge 2b≥2. Every real x≠0x \neq 0x=0 can be written uniquely as ∣x∣=m⋅be|x| = m \cdot b^{e}∣x∣=m⋅be with significand m∈[1,b)m \in [1, b)m∈[1,b) and e∈Ze \in \mathbb{Z}e∈Z. The leading digit of xxx is Db(x)=⌊m⌋∈{1,…,b−1}D_b(x) = \lfloor m \rfloor \in \{1,\dots,b-1\}Db​(x)=⌊m⌋∈{1,…,b−1}. Equivalently, with {t}=t−⌊t⌋\{t\} = t - \lfloor t \rfloor{t}=t−⌊t⌋ the fractional part,

Db(x)=⌊b{log⁡b∣x∣}⌋.D_b(x) = \left\lfloor b^{\{\log_b |x|\}} \right\rfloor .Db​(x)=⌊b{logb​∣x∣}⌋.

More generally, the integer formed by the first kkk significant digits is ⌊b{log⁡b∣x∣}+k−1⌋\lfloor b^{\{\log_b|x|\} + k - 1}\rfloor⌊b{logb​∣x∣}+k−1⌋, and the nnn-th significant digit is that integer for k=nk=nk=n reduced modulo bbb.

The Benford probabilities are

Pb(d)=log⁡b(d+1)−log⁡bd=log⁡b ⁣(1+1d),d=1,…,b−1.P_b(d) = \log_b(d+1) - \log_b d = \log_b\!\left(1 + \frac1d\right), \qquad d = 1, \dots, b-1 .Pb​(d)=logb​(d+1)−logb​d=logb​(1+d1​),d=1,…,b−1.

A real sequence (an)n≥0(a_n)_{n \ge 0}(an​)n≥0​ satisfies Benford's law in base bbb if for every digit d∈{1,…,b−1}d \in \{1,\dots,b-1\}d∈{1,…,b−1}

lim⁡N→∞#{0≤n<N:Db(an)=d}N=Pb(d).\lim_{N\to\infty} \frac{\#\{0 \le n < N : D_b(a_n) = d\}}{N} = P_b(d).N→∞lim​N#{0≤n<N:Db​(an​)=d}​=Pb​(d).

A positive random variable XXX satisfies the strong form of the law if {log⁡bX}\{\log_b X\}{logb​X} is uniformly distributed on [0,1)[0,1)[0,1).

Formalization targets

Goal — powers of kkk (Note 3 of the source)

For every natural number kkk such that log⁡10k\log_{10} klog10​k is irrational, the sequence k1,k2,k3,…k^1, k^2, k^3, \dotsk1,k2,k3,… satisfies Benford's law in base 101010:

lim⁡N→∞#{1≤n≤N:D10(kn)=d}N=log⁡10 ⁣(1+1d)(d=1,…,9).\lim_{N\to\infty}\frac{\#\{1\le n\le N : D_{10}(k^n)=d\}}{N}=\log_{10}\!\left(1+\frac1d\right)\quad (d=1,\dots,9).N→∞lim​N#{1≤n≤N:D10​(kn)=d}​=log10​(1+d1​)(d=1,…,9).

Milestones

  1. The Benford probabilities in base bbb sum to 111.
  2. Db(x)=dD_b(x) = dDb​(x)=d if and only if log⁡bd≤{log⁡bx}<log⁡b(d+1)\log_b d \le \{\log_b x\} < \log_b (d+1)logb​d≤{logb​x}<logb​(d+1).
  3. Strong form ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ first-digit law, in every base b≥2b \ge 2b≥2.
  4. In base 222 every nonzero number has leading digit 111.
  5. The powers of 222 satisfy Benford's law.
  6. The Fibonacci numbers satisfy Benford's law.
  7. The factorials satisfy Benford's law.
  8. Exponential growth or decay CertC e^{rt}Cert (r≠0r\ne 0r=0) spends an asymptotic fraction log⁡10(1+1/d)\log_{10}(1+1/d)log10​(1+1/d) of its time with leading digit ddd.
  9. A scale-invariant first-digit distribution is the Benford distribution.
  10. Under the strong form, the first kkk digits form the integer nnn with probability log⁡10(1+1/n)\log_{10}(1+1/n)log10​(1+1/n).
  11. Under the strong form, the nnn-th digit (n≥2n \ge 2n≥2) equals ddd with probability ∑k=10n−210n−1−1log⁡10 ⁣(1+110k+d)\sum_{k=10^{n-2}}^{10^{n-1}-1}\log_{10}\!\left(1+\frac{1}{10k+d}\right)∑k=10n−210n−1−1​log10​(1+10k+d1​).
  12. That nnn-th-digit probability tends to 1/101/101/10.
  13. The Benford first-digit distribution has mean 3.4403.4403.440 and variance 6.0576.0576.057 (to three decimals).
  14. The reciprocals 1/n1/n1/n and the square roots n\sqrt nn​ of the natural numbers do not satisfy Benford's law.

Significance

The goal is the cleanest instance of the mechanism behind Benford's law: a sequence obeys the law exactly when the fractional parts of its base-101010 logarithms are equidistributed modulo 111, and for knk^nkn those fractional parts are the multiples nlog⁡10kn\log_{10}knlog10​k reduced modulo 111. The milestones cover the rest of the mathematical content of the article: the definition and normalization of the law, the derivation from a log-uniform significand, the generalization to several leading digits and to the nnn-th digit, scale invariance, the continuous-time exponential case, and the negative results for 1/n1/n1/n and n\sqrt nn​.

All of these results are classical and proved in the literature cited above; the work here is formalizing the known proofs. Related entries already on the platform (a leading-digit / fractional-part characterization and an equidistribution-based Benford criterion, stated with different definitions) may be reusable by solvers.

Difficulty

The goal and milestones 5–7 reduce to equidistribution of a sequence modulo 111. For knk^nkn and Fibonacci numbers this is Weyl's equidistribution theorem for irrational rotations (Fibonacci additionally needs Binet's formula and an error term that vanishes). Factorials are harder: log⁡10n!\log_{10} n!log10​n! is not a linear sequence, and the classical proof combines Stirling's formula with an equidistribution criterion for sequences whose differences vary slowly. The scale-invariance theorem requires a Fourier-analytic argument on the circle R/Z\mathbb{R}/\mathbb{Z}R/Z. The negative results require showing that a counting ratio oscillates, which needs explicit lower and upper estimates along two subsequences.

Formalization scope

  • Digits are defined through real logarithms: Db(x)=⌊b{log⁡bx}⌋D_b(x) = \lfloor b^{\{\log_b x\}} \rfloorDb​(x)=⌊b{logb​x}⌋. Lean's Real.logb takes log⁡b∣x∣\log_b|x|logb​∣x∣, so negative numbers get the leading digit of their absolute value, and the junk value Db(0)=1D_b(0) = 1Db​(0)=1 occurs. Every statement either restricts to positive (or nonzero) inputs or only uses positive sequences.
  • Sequences are indexed from n=0n=0n=0; "the sequence k1,k2,…k^1, k^2, \dotsk1,k2,…" is encoded as an=kn+1a_n = k^{n+1}an​=kn+1, the Fibonacci numbers as Fn+1F_{n+1}Fn+1​ and the factorials as (n+1)!(n+1)!(n+1)!.
  • The asymptotic frequency is a natural density over {0,…,N−1}\{0,\dots,N-1\}{0,…,N−1}; "satisfies Benford's law" requires convergence for every digit 1≤d<b1\le d<b1≤d<b.
  • The strong form is encoded as: XXX measurable, X>0X>0X>0 almost surely, and the pushforward of the probability measure under ω↦{log⁡bX(ω)}\omega \mapsto \{\log_b X(\omega)\}ω↦{logb​X(ω)} equals Lebesgue measure restricted to [0,1)[0,1)[0,1) (this forces the underlying measure to have total mass 111).
  • Moments are stated to three decimals, matching the source's rounding: ∣mean−3.440∣<0.0005|\mathrm{mean} - 3.440| < 0.0005∣mean−3.440∣<0.0005 and ∣variance−6.057∣<0.0005|\mathrm{variance} - 6.057| < 0.0005∣variance−6.057∣<0.0005.
  • Not formalized: the empirical claims (tables, applications, statistical tests), Hill's 1995 theorem on random mixtures of distributions, and the Krieger–Kafri entropy explanation; their statements in the source are not precise enough to formalize faithfully.

Reusable infrastructure: leading-digit and significand API, equidistribution of nαn\alphanα modulo 111 (Weyl), Benford criteria via equidistribution. Contributions toward a general "equidistributed {log⁡10an}\{\log_{10} a_n\}{log10​an​} ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ Benford" lemma are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Newcomb, Note on the frequency of use of the different digits in natural numbers, American Journal of Mathematics 4 (1881), 39–40. https://doi.org/10.2307/2369148
  • F. Benford, The law of anomalous numbers, Proc. Amer. Philos. Soc. 78 (1938), 551–572. https://www.jstor.org/stable/984802
  • R. S. Pinkham, On the distribution of first significant digits, Ann. Math. Statist. 32 (1961), 1223–1230. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704862
  • R. L. Duncan, An application of uniform distribution to the Fibonacci numbers, Fibonacci Quarterly 5 (1967), 137–140. https://doi.org/10.1080/00150517.1967.12431312
  • L. C. Washington, Benford's law for Fibonacci and Lucas numbers, Fibonacci Quarterly 19 (1981), 175–177. https://doi.org/10.1080/00150517.1981.12430109
  • R. A. Raimi, The first digit problem, American Mathematical Monthly 83 (1976), 521–538. https://doi.org/10.2307/2319349
  • T. P. Hill, A statistical derivation of the significant-digit law, Statistical Science 10 (1995), 354–363. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177009869
  • T. P. Hill, The significant-digit phenomenon, American Mathematical Monthly 102 (1995), 322–327. https://doi.org/10.1080/00029890.1995.11990578
  • A. Berger, T. P. Hill, The mathematics of Benford's law: a primer, Stat. Methods Appl. 30 (2021), 779–795. https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.07527
  • Wikipedia, Benford's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law
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Mathematical PhysicsQuantum Gravity·Captain: Lucas

Non-renormalizability of gravity from black-hole entropy (Shomer 2007)Research Paper

Motivation

Why is general relativity not a renormalizable quantum field theory? The textbook answer is perturbative: Newton's constant has negative mass dimension, so the gravitational coupling is irrelevant and loop divergences cannot be absorbed into finitely many counterterms. That argument can in principle be evaded (Weinberg's asymptotic safety). Shomer's note (arXiv:0709.3555), following Banks and Aharony–Banks, gives a non-perturbative, thermodynamic argument instead: the very-high-energy spectrum of any renormalizable ddd-dimensional QFT is that of a ddd-dimensional conformal field theory (CFT), whereas the high-energy spectrum of gravity is dominated by black holes, whose Bekenstein–Hawking entropy grows with energy in a way no CFT can match.

Setting

  • CFT side (Sec. IV, Eqs. 29–30). For a ddd-dimensional CFT on Rtime×Sd−1\mathbb R_{\text{time}}\times S^{d-1}Rtime​×Sd−1 (sphere radius RRR) at temperature TTT, dimensional analysis and extensivity give S=a (RT)d−1S=a\,(RT)^{d-1}S=a(RT)d−1 and E=b Rd−1TdE=b\,R^{d-1}T^{d}E=bRd−1Td with constants a,b>0a,b>0a,b>0. Eliminating TTT gives the entropy as a function of energy, SCFT(E)=a (R (E/(bRd−1))1/d)d−1∼E(d−1)/dS_{\rm CFT}(E)=a\,\bigl(R\,(E/(bR^{d-1}))^{1/d}\bigr)^{d-1}\sim E^{(d-1)/d}SCFT​(E)=a(R(E/(bRd−1))1/d)d−1∼E(d−1)/d.
  • Flat gravity (Sec. V.1, Eqs. 31–32). The ddd-dimensional Schwarzschild metric has f(r)=1−ωd−2GNM/rd−3f(r)=1-\omega_{d-2}G_N M/r^{d-3}f(r)=1−ωd−2​GN​M/rd−3 with ωn=16π/(n Vol(Sn))\omega_n=16\pi/(n\,\mathrm{Vol}(S^n))ωn​=16π/(nVol(Sn)). The horizon rHr_HrH​ is the zero of fff, and the Bekenstein–Hawking entropy is S=A/(4GN)S=A/(4G_N)S=A/(4GN​) with A=Vol(Sd−2) rHd−2A=\mathrm{Vol}(S^{d-2})\,r_H^{d-2}A=Vol(Sd−2)rHd−2​, giving S∼M(d−2)/(d−3)S\sim M^{(d-2)/(d-3)}S∼M(d−2)/(d−3).
  • AdS gravity (Sec. V.2, Eqs. 33–34). With f(r)=1−ωd−2GNM/rd−3+r2/RAdS2f(r)=1-\omega_{d-2}G_NM/r^{d-3}+r^2/R_{\rm AdS}^2f(r)=1−ωd−2​GN​M/rd−3+r2/RAdS2​ the horizon is the largest zero of fff and S∼M(d−2)/(d−1)S\sim M^{(d-2)/(d-1)}S∼M(d−2)/(d−1) — the CFT law of one dimension lower (a shadow of AdS/CFT).

Formalization targets

Goal — black-hole entropy is not CFT entropy (flat space, Sec. V.1)

For every spacetime dimension d≥4d\ge 4d≥4, every GN>0G_N>0GN​>0 and every CFT datum a,b,R>0a,b,R>0a,b,R>0,

SBH(E) is not Θ(SCFT(E))as E→∞.S_{\rm BH}(E)\ \text{is not}\ \Theta\bigl(S_{\rm CFT}(E)\bigr)\quad\text{as }E\to\infty .SBH​(E) is not Θ(SCFT​(E))as E→∞.

Here Θ\ThetaΘ means bounded above and below by positive multiples of each other for all large EEE; this is how the paper's "∼\sim∼" is read.

Milestones

Eq. (29) (the elimination of TTT), Eq. (30), Eq. (32) exactly, footnote 26 (exponent comparison), Eq. (34) asymptotically, the AdS mismatch with a ddd-dimensional CFT, and the AdS match with a (d−1)(d-1)(d−1)-dimensional CFT.

Significance

The goal is the precise mathematical content of the paper's one-line argument: once the black-hole entropy formula and the CFT scaling law are fixed, their large-energy growth exponents (d−2)/(d−3)>1>(d−1)/d(d-2)/(d-3)>1>(d-1)/d(d−2)/(d−3)>1>(d−1)/d are incompatible. The physics inputs (that a renormalizable QFT flows to a CFT in the UV, that black holes dominate the gravitational density of states, the Bekenstein–Hawking formula) are modelling assumptions, encoded as definitions; the mission formalizes the asymptotic analysis that turns them into a contradiction, not the physics itself.

Difficulty

Mathematically elementary but fiddly: the horizon radius is defined implicitly as the largest positive zero of fff, so one must solve f(rH)=0f(r_H)=0f(rH​)=0 (exactly in flat space, asymptotically in AdS, where rHd−3(1+rH2/RAdS2)=ωd−2GNMr_H^{d-3}(1+r_H^2/R_{\rm AdS}^2)=\omega_{d-2}G_NMrHd−3​(1+rH2​/RAdS2​)=ωd−2​GN​M), handle real powers, and compare asymptotic classes with distinct exponents.

Formalization scope

All statements live in namespace GravityNonRenorm and import one definition file. The unit-sphere volume is the closed form Vol(Sn)=2π(n+1)/2/Γ((n+1)/2)\mathrm{Vol}(S^n)=2\pi^{(n+1)/2}/\Gamma((n+1)/2)Vol(Sn)=2π(n+1)/2/Γ((n+1)/2). Horizon radii are sSup of the set of positive zeros of fff (junk value 000 when that set is empty, e.g. for M≤0M\le 0M≤0); all claims are asymptotic as E→∞E\to\inftyE→∞ or assume M>0M>0M>0, so the junk value is never used. Dimensions are natural numbers; d≥4d\ge 4d≥4 for flat-space statements, d≥3d\ge3d≥3 for AdS, d≥2d\ge2d≥2 for CFT statements.

Selected references

  • A. Shomer, A pedagogical explanation for the non-renormalizability of gravity, arXiv:0709.3555 (2007). https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.3555
  • O. Aharony and T. Banks, Note on the quantum mechanics of M theory, JHEP 9903:016 (1999), arXiv:hep-th/9812237.
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Mathematical PhysicsPartial Differential Equations·Captain: Lucas

Fick's Laws of Diffusion: Fundamental Solution and Classical SolutionsTextbook

Motivation

Fick's laws of diffusion, posited by Adolf Fick in 1855, are the basic constitutive and evolution laws for the transport of mass by diffusion. The first law states that the diffusive flux is proportional to minus the concentration gradient, J=−D ∂xφJ=-D\,\partial_x\varphiJ=−D∂x​φ; the second law is the resulting evolution equation for the concentration,

∂φ∂t=D ∂2φ∂x2.\frac{\partial\varphi}{\partial t}=D\,\frac{\partial^2\varphi}{\partial x^2}.∂t∂φ​=D∂x2∂2φ​.

They are the standard model for diffusion in solids, liquids and gases (in the absence of bulk flow), and are used to model transport in foods, neurons, biopolymers, pharmaceuticals, porous soils, nuclear materials and semiconductor doping. Mathematically, the second law is the heat equation with the thermal diffusivity replaced by the diffusion coefficient D>0D>0D>0.

This mission formalizes the mathematical content of the Wikipedia article Fick's laws of diffusion: the derivation of the second law from the first, the steady state, the fundamental solution, the error-function solutions for a constant source, and the mean-squared-displacement law.

Setting

A concentration is a real function φ(x,t)\varphi(x,t)φ(x,t) of position xxx and time ttt; a flux is a real function J(x,t)J(x,t)J(x,t). The diffusion coefficient is a constant D>0D>0D>0. For t>0t>0t>0 the diffusion kernel is

φD(x,t)=14πDtexp⁡(−x24Dt),\varphi_D(x,t)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{4\pi Dt}}\exp\Big(-\frac{x^2}{4Dt}\Big),φD​(x,t)=4πDt​1​exp(−4Dtx2​),

and in nnn space dimensions

φD(n)(x,t)=(4πDt)−n/2exp⁡(−∥x∥24Dt),x∈Rn.\varphi^{(n)}_D(x,t)=(4\pi Dt)^{-n/2}\exp\Big(-\frac{\|x\|^2}{4Dt}\Big),\qquad x\in\mathbb R^n.φD(n)​(x,t)=(4πDt)−n/2exp(−4Dt∥x∥2​),x∈Rn.

The complementary error function is erfc⁡(u)=2π∫u∞e−s2 ds\operatorname{erfc}(u)=\frac{2}{\sqrt\pi}\int_u^\infty e^{-s^2}\,dserfc(u)=π​2​∫u∞​e−s2ds.

Formalization targets

Goal: the fundamental solution

For D>0D>0D>0, φD\varphi_DφD​ solves ∂tφ=D∂x2φ\partial_t\varphi=D\partial_x^2\varphi∂t​φ=D∂x2​φ for t>0t>0t>0, has ∫RφD(x,t) dx=1\int_{\mathbb R}\varphi_D(x,t)\,dx=1∫R​φD​(x,t)dx=1 for every t>0t>0t>0, and satisfies

lim⁡t→0+∫RφD(x−y,t)f(y) dy=f(x)\lim_{t\to0^+}\int_{\mathbb R}\varphi_D(x-y,t)f(y)\,dy=f(x)t→0+lim​∫R​φD​(x−y,t)f(y)dy=f(x)

for every bounded continuous fff and every xxx.

Milestones

  1. Fick's second law follows from Fick's first law and mass conservation ∂tφ+∂xJ=0\partial_t\varphi+\partial_xJ=0∂t​φ+∂x​J=0 (constant DDD).
  2. A C2C^2C2 steady state in one dimension is linear: c(x)=ax+bc(x)=ax+bc(x)=ax+b.
  3. The three components of the goal, separately (PDE, unit mass, initial point source).
  4. n(x,t)=n0erfc⁡(x/(2Dt))n(x,t)=n_0\operatorname{erfc}\big(x/(2\sqrt{Dt})\big)n(x,t)=n0​erfc(x/(2Dt​)) solves the second law with n(0,t)=n0n(0,t)=n_0n(0,t)=n0​ and n(x,0+)=0n(x,0^+)=0n(x,0+)=0 for x>0x>0x>0.
  5. n(x,t)=n02erfc⁡(x/(2Dt))n(x,t)=\frac{n_0}{2}\operatorname{erfc}\big(x/(2\sqrt{Dt})\big)n(x,t)=2n0​​erfc(x/(2Dt​)) solves the second law with initial profile n0n_0n0​ on x<0x<0x<0 and 000 on x>0x>0x>0.
  6. Mean squared displacement in Rn\mathbb R^nRn: ∫∥x∥2φD(n)(x,t) dx=2nDt\int\|x\|^2\varphi^{(n)}_D(x,t)\,dx=2nDt∫∥x∥2φD(n)​(x,t)dx=2nDt.

Significance

The fundamental solution is what makes the second law usable: the solution of the one-dimensional diffusion problem with bounded continuous initial data is the convolution of the data with φD\varphi_DφD​, and the erfc profiles and diffusion length 2Dt2\sqrt{Dt}2Dt​ quoted throughout applications are derived from it. The mean-squared-displacement law 2nDt2nDt2nDt connects the macroscopic diffusion coefficient to the microscopic Brownian motion of particles.

All statements are classical and proved in the literature; the task here is to formalize them. Mathlib provides the Gaussian integral but has no error function and no development of the one-dimensional diffusion equation, so the mission also produces reusable infrastructure (erfc and its derivative and limits, Gaussian moments in Rn\mathbb R^nRn, the approximate-identity property).

Difficulty

The individual computations are routine on paper; the formal difficulty lies in rigor that the article leaves implicit: differentiating the kernel in both variables only on t>0t>0t>0, justifying limits of parameter-dependent integrals as t→0+t\to0^+t→0+ (dominated convergence for the point-source property), computing the second moment of an nnn-dimensional Gaussian on Euclidean space, and building erfc from scratch, including its derivative −2πe−u2-\frac{2}{\sqrt\pi}e^{-u^2}−π​2​e−u2 and its limits at ±∞\pm\infty±∞.

Formalization scope

All objects are real-valued; derivatives are Mathlib's deriv (which is 000 at non-differentiable points), integrals are Lebesgue integrals, and limits as t→0+t\to0^+t→0+ use the right-neighbourhood filter. Every statement about the kernel or erfc profiles assumes D>0D>0D>0 and evaluates the PDE only at t>0t>0t>0, so junk values of square root and division never matter. The steady-state milestone assumes C2C^2C2 regularity, without which deriv would admit non-smooth "solutions" such as ∣x∣|x|∣x∣. Rn\mathbb R^nRn is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). Physical parts of the article (Stokes–Einstein relation, Maxwell–Stefan, sorption kinetics, approximations) are out of scope.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia contributors, Fick's laws of diffusion. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fick%27s_laws_of_diffusion
  • A. Fick, Ueber Diffusion, Annalen der Physik 170 (1855) 59–86. https://doi.org/10.1002/andp.18551700105
  • J. Crank, The Mathematics of Diffusion, 2nd ed., Oxford University Press, 1975.
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Okun's Law: Growth-Rate Form from the Gap VersionTextbook

Motivation

Okun's law is an empirically observed relationship between unemployment and losses in a country's production, named after Arthur M. Okun, who proposed it in 1962 (Okun 1962). It appears in two standard forms. The gap version relates the output gap to the unemployment gap; the difference (or growth-rate) version relates year-to-year changes in output to year-to-year changes in unemployment. Macroeconomics textbooks (Abel & Bernanke 2005) present the gap version and then derive the difference version from it by a short chain of algebraic manipulations followed by two approximations. The empirical validity of the law is disputed and is not the subject of this mission; the subject is the internal mathematics of the derivation.

Setting

Time is discrete: years are indexed by t∈Nt \in \mathbb Nt∈N. All quantities are real-valued time series:

  • YtY_tYt​ — actual output,
  • Y‾t\overline Y_tYt​ — potential GDP (full-employment output),
  • utu_tut​ — the actual unemployment rate,
  • u‾t\overline u_tut​ — the natural rate of unemployment,
  • ccc — the Okun coefficient, a real constant relating changes in unemployment to changes in output.

For a series xxx write Δxt=xt+1−xt\Delta x_t = x_{t+1} - x_tΔxt​=xt+1​−xt​ for its annual change and Δxt/xt\Delta x_t / x_tΔxt​/xt​ for its growth rate from year ttt to year t+1t+1t+1. The gap version of Okun's law in year ttt is

Y‾t−YtY‾t=c (ut−u‾t).\frac{\overline Y_t - Y_t}{\overline Y_t} = c\,(u_t - \overline u_t).Yt​Yt​−Yt​​=c(ut​−ut​).

Formalization targets

Goal — the growth-rate form with its exact remainder

The source's final formula is ΔYY≈k−c Δu\dfrac{\Delta Y}{Y} \approx k - c\,\Delta uYΔY​≈k−cΔu, where kkk is the growth rate of full-employment output. The goal states the derivation exactly: if the gap version holds in years ttt and t+1t+1t+1 (with positive YtY_tYt​, Y‾t\overline Y_tYt​, Y‾t+1\overline Y_{t+1}Yt+1​), the natural rate does not change (Δu‾t=0\Delta \overline u_t = 0Δut​=0) and potential output grows at rate kkk (ΔY‾t/Y‾t=k\Delta\overline Y_t/\overline Y_t = kΔYt​/Yt​=k), then

ΔYtYt=k−c Δut−c Δut(Y‾t+ΔY‾tYt−1).\frac{\Delta Y_t}{Y_t} = k - c\,\Delta u_t - c\,\Delta u_t\left(\frac{\overline Y_t + \Delta \overline Y_t}{Y_t} - 1\right).Yt​ΔYt​​=k−cΔut​−cΔut​(Yt​Yt​+ΔYt​​−1).

The last term is precisely the error made by the source's approximation Y‾+ΔY‾Y≈1\frac{\overline Y + \Delta\overline Y}{Y} \approx 1YY+ΔY​≈1.

Milestones — the steps of the derivation

  1. The gap version is equivalent to YtY‾t−1=c(u‾t−ut)\frac{Y_t}{\overline Y_t} - 1 = c(\overline u_t - u_t)Yt​Yt​​−1=c(ut​−ut​).
  2. Taking annual differences: Δ ⁣(YY‾)t=Yt+ΔYtY‾t+ΔY‾t−YtY‾t=c(Δu‾t−Δut)\Delta\!\left(\frac{Y}{\overline Y}\right)_t = \frac{Y_t + \Delta Y_t}{\overline Y_t + \Delta \overline Y_t} - \frac{Y_t}{\overline Y_t} = c(\Delta\overline u_t - \Delta u_t)Δ(YY​)t​=Yt​+ΔYt​Yt​+ΔYt​​−Yt​Yt​​=c(Δut​−Δut​).
  3. Common denominator: Y‾t ΔYt−Yt ΔY‾tY‾t(Y‾t+ΔY‾t)=c(Δu‾t−Δut)\frac{\overline Y_t\,\Delta Y_t - Y_t\,\Delta\overline Y_t}{\overline Y_t(\overline Y_t + \Delta\overline Y_t)} = c(\Delta\overline u_t - \Delta u_t)Yt​(Yt​+ΔYt​)Yt​ΔYt​−Yt​ΔYt​​=c(Δut​−Δut​).
  4. Exact growth identity: ΔYtYt−ΔY‾tY‾t=c(Δu‾t−Δut)⋅Y‾t+ΔY‾tYt\frac{\Delta Y_t}{Y_t} - \frac{\Delta \overline Y_t}{\overline Y_t} = c(\Delta\overline u_t - \Delta u_t)\cdot\frac{\overline Y_t + \Delta\overline Y_t}{Y_t}Yt​ΔYt​​−Yt​ΔYt​​=c(Δut​−Δut​)⋅Yt​Yt​+ΔYt​​.

Significance

The derivation is the textbook justification for using the difference form, which is the version actually estimated by regression. Making every step exact shows exactly which hypotheses (positivity of output, the gap law in two consecutive years with the same coefficient, a constant natural rate) and which approximation (the factor (Y‾+ΔY‾)/Y≈1(\overline Y+\Delta\overline Y)/Y \approx 1(Y+ΔY)/Y≈1) the difference form rests on, and gives the size of the neglected term. The result is elementary and known; what the mission adds is a machine-checked, approximation-free account of the derivation.

Difficulty

The algebra is elementary. The care required is in bookkeeping: the source uses "≈\approx≈" in two places and silently assumes all denominators are nonzero. A faithful statement must replace each "≈\approx≈" either by an explicit hypothesis or by an explicit remainder term, and must state the positivity assumptions that make the divisions meaningful.

Formalization scope

Series are functions N→R\mathbb N \to \mathbb RN→R; Δxt=xt+1−xt\Delta x_t = x_{t+1} - x_tΔxt​=xt+1​−xt​; the growth rate is Δxt/xt\Delta x_t / x_tΔxt​/xt​ (Lean's real division returns 000 when dividing by 000, so positivity hypotheses on YtY_tYt​, Y‾t\overline Y_tYt​, Y‾t+1\overline Y_{t+1}Yt+1​ are stated explicitly wherever a division by them occurs). The gap law is a predicate on one year ttt with a fixed coefficient ccc; all statements use the gap law in exactly the two years ttt and t+1t+1t+1 with the same ccc. The source's approximations Δu‾≈0\Delta\overline u \approx 0Δu≈0 and ΔY‾/Y‾≈k\Delta\overline Y/\overline Y \approx kΔY/Y≈k are taken as exact hypotheses, and the approximation (Y‾+ΔY‾)/Y≈1(\overline Y + \Delta \overline Y)/Y \approx 1(Y+ΔY)/Y≈1 is replaced by an explicit remainder term, so the goal is an exact identity rather than a vague approximation. The shared definitions live in one definition file (OkunsLaw_defs).

Selected references

  • A. M. Okun, Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance, Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1962. https://cowles.yale.edu/node/142137
  • A. B. Abel and B. S. Bernanke, Macroeconomics, 5th ed., Pearson/Addison Wesley, 2005. ISBN 0-321-16212-9.
  • Wikipedia, Okun's law, revision 1341356066 — sections "Mathematical statements" and "Derivation of the growth rate form". https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Okun%27s_law&oldid=1341356066
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Gresham's Law I: Bad Money Drives Out GoodTextbook

Motivation

Gresham's law is the monetary principle usually summarised as "bad money drives out good": when two kinds of coin circulate side by side and the law obliges everyone to accept both at the same face value, the coin whose metal is worth more tends to vanish from circulation, while the debased coin stays in use. The principle was named in 1857–58 by Henry Dunning Macleod after Sir Thomas Gresham, who explained to Elizabeth I in 1558 why the English coinage had deteriorated after the Great Debasements of Henry VIII and Edward VI. It appears much earlier in Aristophanes' The Frogs (405 BC), in Nicole Oresme's treatise on money (c. 1350–1357), in a 1472 Venetian report ("the bad money will chase out the good"), and in Copernicus' Monetae cudendae ratio (1519/1528), whence the alternative name Gresham–Copernicus law. The source of this mission is the Wikipedia article.

Modern instances quoted by the article include the disappearance of 90% silver U.S. half dollars after the Coinage Act of 1965, the 2007 U.S. ban on melting one- and five-cent coins, and Britain's drift to a de facto gold standard after Isaac Newton fixed the guinea at 21 shillings in 1717. The article also records the reverse phenomenon, Thiers' law (named by Peter Bernholz): without effective legal tender laws, good money drives out bad money once the bad money becomes nearly worthless.

Setting

A coin is described by two real numbers: its face value fff, the nominal value at which legal tender law requires it to be accepted, and its melt value mmm, the market value of the metal it contains (its intrinsic or commodity value). "Good money" has a melt value close to its face value; "bad money" has a melt value considerably below its face value while being accepted at the same face value.

A holder owns a finite wallet sss of coins, indexed by a type ι\iotaι, with face values fif_ifi​ and melt values mim_imi​. Legal tender at equal value means that all coins of the wallet carry the same face value. Because creditors must accept coins at face value, a set P⊆sP\subseteq sP⊆s is a legal payment of a debt ddd when ∑i∈Pfi=d\sum_{i\in P} f_i=d∑i∈P​fi​=d. The holder "prefers to save the intrinsically more valuable money": a legal payment PPP is optimal when no other legal payment QQQ of the same debt leaves the holder with more intrinsic value, i.e.

∑i∈s∖Qmi  ≤  ∑i∈s∖Pmi.\sum_{i\in s\setminus Q} m_i\;\le\;\sum_{i\in s\setminus P} m_i .i∈s∖Q∑​mi​≤i∈s∖P∑​mi​.

Without legal tender law, a seller values coins only by their metal, and accepts at market value a set PPP of coins for a price ppp exactly when ∑i∈Pmi≥p\sum_{i\in P} m_i\ge p∑i∈P​mi​≥p.

For the 1717 episode, the home legal rate is rrr shillings per guinea and abroad the gold of one guinea costs the silver of mmm shillings. One arbitrage round turns NNN shillings into the gold of N/mN/mN/m guineas abroad, which is coined at home and exchanged back at the legal rate for Nm r\tfrac{N}{m}\,rmN​r shillings.

Formalization targets

Goal: bad money is spent first

If the wallet is split into good coins and bad coins, every bad coin has strictly smaller melt value than every good coin, and all coins carry the same face value, then in any optimal payment PPP

(P∩good≠∅)  ⟹  bad⊆P:\bigl(P\cap\text{good}\neq\varnothing\bigr)\;\Longrightarrow\;\text{bad}\subseteq P:(P∩good=∅)⟹bad⊆P:

a good coin is handed over only once every bad coin has been handed over. Equivalently, as long as the holder retains a bad coin, no good coin circulates.

Milestones

  1. The sixpence example — paying with a single coin, the optimal choice is a coin of minimal melt value (the most debased coin), and conversely.
  2. Exchange characterization — with equal positive face values, a legal payment is optimal iff every paid coin has melt value at most that of every retained coin.
  3. Thiers' law — without legal tender, if the bad coins are nearly worthless (total melt value of all bad coins below the price), every accepted payment contains a good coin.
  4. Newton's guinea — if gold is overvalued at home (0<m<r0<m<r0<m<r), one arbitrage round is strictly profitable, and repeated rounds grow without bound.

Significance

The goal is the decision-theoretic core of the article's "Theory" section: legal tender laws act as a price control fixing the exchange ratio of coins with different intrinsic content, and a holder who keeps the more valuable coins therefore pays with the less valuable ones. The milestones isolate the article's worked example (sixpences and pennies), the exact optimality condition behind it, the reverse regime (Thiers' law, and Mundell's reformulation "bad money drives out good if they exchange for the same price"), and the bimetallic arbitrage that drained silver from Britain after 1717.

The statements are elementary; the value of the mission is a precise, checked account of which hypotheses carry the law — equal face value enforced by law, and a strict ranking of intrinsic values — so that the informal statement becomes an exact theorem with its conditions visible.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is a single swap: exchange a paid good coin for a retained bad coin. The swap keeps the payment legal only because all coins carry the same face value; with unequal face values it changes the amount paid and the argument fails. The exchange characterization also needs positive face values: with zero face values every subset is a payment of 000, and the condition "paid coins are no more valuable than retained ones" no longer implies optimality.

Formalization scope

Face and melt values are real numbers; wallets are finite sets (Finset) of indices, so distinct coins with identical values are distinct elements. Payments must match the debt exactly (no change is modelled inside a single payment; the shopkeeper giving change is another payer facing the same problem). Optimality compares retained intrinsic value among legal payments of the same debt from the same wallet. The arbitrage round ignores transport and minting costs. Melting, hoarding and export are not modelled as separate actions; the formal content is the payment choice, the market-value acceptance rule, and the arbitrage round.

The goal is not vacuous: optimal payments exist for every attainable debt (the wallet is finite), and the hypotheses are satisfiable, e.g. by one good and one bad coin of face value 111 and melt values 111 and 12\tfrac1221​.

All declarations live in the namespace GreshamLaw, in one definition file GreshamLaw_Model.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Gresham's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gresham%27s_law
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Economics·Captain: Lucas

Say's Law I: No General Glut in a Barter EconomyTextbook

Motivation

Say's law, or the law of markets, is the classical claim that production is the source of demand. Jean-Baptiste Say wrote in his Treatise on Political Economy (1803) that "a product is no sooner created, than it, from that instant, affords a market for other products to the full extent of its own value". The doctrine was restated by James Mill ("the production of commodities creates ... a market for the commodities produced") and David Ricardo ("demand depends only on supply"), and it was a key element of the framework of macroeconomics from the mid-19th century until the 1930s.

Its best-known consequence is that a general glut — a widespread excess of supply over demand for all goods at once — cannot occur: if one good remains unsold, some other good must be in short supply. This claim was disputed from the start. Thomas Malthus reported evidence of general gluts; John Stuart Mill argued that during a general glut there is excess demand for money, and rescued the no-glut principle by counting money as one of the commodities. During the Great Depression, Keynes argued that Say's law is simply not true, and Keynesian, post-Keynesian and Marxian critics locate its failure in the hoarding of money. Krugman called it "at best, a useless tautology when individuals have the option of accumulating money rather than purchasing real goods and services".

The debate turns on an accounting fact that is easy to state and easy to misstate: what exactly follows from budget constraints alone, and what changes when money can be held rather than spent. This mission pins that down formally.

Setting

Fix a finite set ι\iotaι of agents and a finite set GGG of goods. A price vector is p∈RGp\in\mathbb R^Gp∈RG. Agent iii brings the bundle si∈RGs_i\in\mathbb R^Gsi​∈RG to market (his supply) and plans to buy the bundle di∈RGd_i\in\mathbb R^Gdi​∈RG (his demand). The market value of a bundle xxx is

⟨p,x⟩=∑g∈Gpgxg,\langle p,x\rangle=\sum_{g\in G}p_g x_g,⟨p,x⟩=g∈G∑​pg​xg​,

and the aggregate excess demand for good ggg is zg=∑i∈ι(di,g−si,g)z_g=\sum_{i\in\iota}(d_{i,g}-s_{i,g})zg​=∑i∈ι​(di,g​−si,g​).

  • Say's budget principle ("products are paid for with products"): every agent spends the whole proceeds of his sales on other products, ⟨p,di⟩=⟨p,si⟩\langle p,d_i\rangle=\langle p,s_i\rangle⟨p,di​⟩=⟨p,si​⟩.
  • A general glut is a situation with zg<0z_g<0zg​<0 for every good ggg.
  • In a monetary economy, agent iii holds money mim_imi​ initially and plans to hold mi′m'_imi′​, subject to ⟨p,di⟩+mi′=⟨p,si⟩+mi\langle p,d_i\rangle+m'_i=\langle p,s_i\rangle+m_i⟨p,di​⟩+mi′​=⟨p,si​⟩+mi​. The aggregate excess demand for money is ∑i(mi′−mi)\sum_i(m'_i-m_i)∑i​(mi′​−mi​); it is positive when agents in aggregate hoard.

Formalization targets

Goal — no general glut

With at least one good, strictly positive prices and Say's budget principle,

¬(∀g∈G, zg<0).\neg\big(\forall g\in G,\ z_g<0\big).¬(∀g∈G, zg​<0).

Milestones

  1. Say's identity: ∑i⟨p,di⟩=∑i⟨p,si⟩\sum_i\langle p,d_i\rangle=\sum_i\langle p,s_i\rangle∑i​⟨p,di​⟩=∑i​⟨p,si​⟩ under Say's budget principle.
  2. Glut balanced by shortage: with positive prices, if zg0<0z_{g_0}<0zg0​​<0 then zg>0z_g>0zg​>0 for some g≠g0g\neq g_0g=g0​.
  3. Monetary budget identity: ⟨p,z⟩+∑i(mi′−mi)=0\langle p,z\rangle+\sum_i(m'_i-m_i)=0⟨p,z⟩+∑i​(mi′​−mi​)=0 under the monetary budget constraints.
  4. Mill's version with money as a commodity: with positive prices and at least one good, a general glut of goods and a non-positive excess demand for money cannot occur together.
  5. Hoarding permits a general glut: with at least one agent, for any prices, supplies and initial money, some demands and planned money holdings satisfy every budget constraint and produce a general glut.

Significance

The goal and milestones 1–2 isolate the content of Say's law as the article's "modern way of expressing" it: in a pure barter setting the budget constraints alone force gluts and shortages to cancel in value. Milestones 3–5 make the classical and Keynesian objections precise: once money can be held, the same constraints identify a general glut with an excess demand for money (Mill), and they no longer exclude a general glut (Keynes, Krugman, Marx's C–M–C critique). Together they separate what is an accounting identity from what is a behavioural assumption (no hoarding), which is the point at issue in the historical debate. The results are classical; the contribution here is a machine-checked, assumption-explicit statement of each.

Difficulty

The mathematics is elementary; the difficulty is entirely in stating the claims faithfully. The informal phrase "supply creates its own demand" is ambiguous between an identity about values and a claim about quantities of each good, and it silently requires positive prices and a nonempty set of goods — without them "every good is in excess supply" can hold vacuously or with no value consequence. The monetary results must keep money out of the set of goods, so that "an excess of all other commodities" means what Mill meant.

Formalization scope

Goods and agents are finite types; quantities, prices and money balances are real numbers with no sign restriction (supplies and demands may be read as gross amounts or as net trades). Positivity of prices and nonemptiness of the set of goods (or agents) are explicit hypotheses exactly where they are needed. Prices are taken as given; no utility maximisation, equilibrium existence, price adjustment or dynamics is modelled, so statements about full employment, persistence of depressions or the speed of price adjustment are out of scope. The definition file SaysLaw_Model is shared by every statement.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Say's law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Say%27s_law
  • J.-B. Say, A Treatise on Political Economy, 1803.
  • J. S. Mill, Principles of Political Economy, 1848.
  • J. M. Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936, ch. 2.
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AnalysisMathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

BCS Theory: the universal gap ratio Δ(0) = (π/e^γ) k_B T_cTextbook

Motivation

The BCS theory of Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer (1957) is the microscopic theory of conventional superconductivity in metals; its authors received the 1972 Nobel Prize in Physics. Its most quoted quantitative predictions are universal numbers: in the weak-coupling limit the zero-temperature energy gap and the transition temperature are related by Δ(0)=(π/eγ) kBTc≈1.764 kBTc\Delta(0) = (\pi/e^{\gamma})\,k_BT_c \approx 1.764\,k_BT_cΔ(0)=(π/eγ)kB​Tc​≈1.764kB​Tc​, the gap closes as Δ(T)/Δ(0)≈1.741−T/Tc\Delta(T)/\Delta(0)\approx 1.74\sqrt{1-T/T_c}Δ(T)/Δ(0)≈1.741−T/Tc​​, and the specific heat jumps by (Ces−Cen)/Cen≈1.43(C_{es}-C_{en})/C_{en}\approx 1.43(Ces​−Cen​)/Cen​≈1.43 at TcT_cTc​. These numbers are what experiments compare against, and they follow from a single scalar integral equation, the BCS gap equation. This mission formalizes that mathematical core, following the section Erfolge der BCS-Theorie of the German Wikipedia article BCS-Theorie.

Timeline (as summarized in the source):

  • 1950 — isotope effect observed (Lock et al.; Maxwell; Serin et al.): TcT_cTc​ depends on the ionic mass MMM.
  • 1956 — Cooper shows that an arbitrarily weak attraction binds two electrons above a filled Fermi sea.
  • 1957 — Bardeen, Cooper and Schrieffer publish Theory of Superconductivity, including the gap equation and its consequences.

Setting

Fix the Boltzmann constant kB>0k_B>0kB​>0, the Debye energy ℏωD>0\hbar\omega_D>0ℏωD​>0 (called hbarOmegaD in Lean) and the dimensionless coupling λ=V0 Z(EF)>0\lambda = V_0\,Z(E_F)>0λ=V0​Z(EF​)>0 (called coupling), where V0V_0V0​ is the attractive pairing potential and Z(EF)Z(E_F)Z(EF​) is half the electronic density of states at the Fermi energy. With the quasiparticle energy E(η,Δ)=η2+Δ2E(\eta,\Delta)=\sqrt{\eta^2+\Delta^2}E(η,Δ)=η2+Δ2​ define

I0(ℏωD,Δ)=∫0ℏωDdηη2+Δ2,I(kB,ℏωD,Δ,T)=∫0ℏωDdηη2+Δ2tanh⁡η2+Δ22kBT.I_0(\hbar\omega_D,\Delta)=\int_0^{\hbar\omega_D}\frac{d\eta}{\sqrt{\eta^2+\Delta^2}},\qquad I(k_B,\hbar\omega_D,\Delta,T)=\int_0^{\hbar\omega_D}\frac{d\eta}{\sqrt{\eta^2+\Delta^2}}\tanh\frac{\sqrt{\eta^2+\Delta^2}}{2k_BT}.I0​(ℏωD​,Δ)=∫0ℏωD​​η2+Δ2​dη​,I(kB​,ℏωD​,Δ,T)=∫0ℏωD​​η2+Δ2​dη​tanh2kB​Tη2+Δ2​​.

The zero-temperature gap Δ(0)\Delta(0)Δ(0) is the positive solution of 1/λ=I0(ℏωD,Δ)1/\lambda = I_0(\hbar\omega_D,\Delta)1/λ=I0​(ℏωD​,Δ); the critical temperature TcT_cTc​ is the positive solution of 1/λ=I(kB,ℏωD,0,T)1/\lambda = I(k_B,\hbar\omega_D,0,T)1/λ=I(kB​,ℏωD​,0,T); and for 0<T<Tc0<T<T_c0<T<Tc​ the gap Δ(T)\Delta(T)Δ(T) is the positive solution of 1/λ=I(kB,ℏωD,Δ,T)1/\lambda = I(k_B,\hbar\omega_D,\Delta,T)1/λ=I(kB​,ℏωD​,Δ,T). The Fermi–Dirac function is f(E,T)=1/(eE/kBT+1)f(E,T) = 1/(e^{E/k_BT}+1)f(E,T)=1/(eE/kB​T+1), and 1−2f(E,T)=tanh⁡(E/2kBT)1-2f(E,T) = \tanh(E/2k_BT)1−2f(E,T)=tanh(E/2kB​T).

Formalization targets

Goal: the universal gap ratio

lim⁡λ→0+Δ(0)kBTc=πeγ=1.764…\lim_{\lambda\to0^+}\frac{\Delta(0)}{k_BT_c}=\frac{\pi}{e^{\gamma}}=1.764\ldotsλ→0+lim​kB​Tc​Δ(0)​=eγπ​=1.764…

with γ\gammaγ the Euler–Mascheroni constant. The source writes Δ(T=0)=2ℏωDe−1/V0Z(EF)=πeγkBTc\Delta(T=0)=2\hbar\omega_D e^{-1/V_0Z(E_F)}=\frac{\pi}{e^\gamma}k_BT_cΔ(T=0)=2ℏωD​e−1/V0​Z(EF​)=eγπ​kB​Tc​; both equalities are weak-coupling asymptotics, so the goal is stated as a limit λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+ at fixed kBk_BkB​, ℏωD\hbar\omega_DℏωD​.

Milestones

  1. I0(ℏωD,Δ)=arsinh⁡(ℏωD/Δ)I_0(\hbar\omega_D,\Delta) = \operatorname{arsinh}(\hbar\omega_D/\Delta)I0​(ℏωD​,Δ)=arsinh(ℏωD​/Δ).
  2. Δ(0)=ℏωD/sinh⁡(1/λ)\Delta(0)=\hbar\omega_D/\sinh(1/\lambda)Δ(0)=ℏωD​/sinh(1/λ), the unique positive solution of the T=0T=0T=0 gap equation.
  3. Δ(0)∼2ℏωDe−1/λ\Delta(0)\sim 2\hbar\omega_D e^{-1/\lambda}Δ(0)∼2ℏωD​e−1/λ as λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+.
  4. The Fermi–Dirac and tanh⁡\tanhtanh forms of the finite-temperature gap equation agree.
  5. The TcT_cTc​ equation has exactly one positive solution.
  6. kBTc∼2eγπℏωDe−1/λk_BT_c\sim\frac{2e^\gamma}{\pi}\hbar\omega_D e^{-1/\lambda}kB​Tc​∼π2eγ​ℏωD​e−1/λ (the source's 1,141{,}141,14).
  7. Isotope effect: with ℏωD=C/M\hbar\omega_D = C/\sqrt MℏωD​=C/M​, Tc∝M−1/2T_c\propto M^{-1/2}Tc​∝M−1/2.
  8. Δ(T)\Delta(T)Δ(T) exists uniquely for 0<T<Tc0<T<T_c0<T<Tc​, and the gap equation has no positive solution for T≥TcT\ge T_cT≥Tc​.
  9. Near TcT_cTc​: Δ(T)2/(1−T/Tc)\Delta(T)^2/(1-T/T_c)Δ(T)2/(1−T/Tc​) has a limit L(λ)L(\lambda)L(λ) as T→Tc−T\to T_c^-T→Tc−​, and L(λ)/Δ(0)2→8e2γ/(7ζ(3))=1.73672L(\lambda)/\Delta(0)^2\to 8e^{2\gamma}/(7\zeta(3)) = 1.7367^2L(λ)/Δ(0)2→8e2γ/(7ζ(3))=1.73672 as λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+.
  10. Specific-heat jump: the left derivative D(λ)D(\lambda)D(λ) of Δ(T)2\Delta(T)^2Δ(T)2 at TcT_cTc​ exists, and −D(λ)/(2π23kB2Tc)→12/(7ζ(3))=1.426…-D(\lambda)/(\tfrac{2\pi^2}{3}k_B^2T_c)\to 12/(7\zeta(3)) = 1.426\ldots−D(λ)/(32π2​kB2​Tc​)→12/(7ζ(3))=1.426….

Significance

The universal ratios are the standard quantitative test that separates weak-coupling (BCS-like) superconductors from strong-coupling ones; deviations from 1.7641.7641.764 and 1.431.431.43 are used to diagnose strong electron–phonon coupling. Mathematically, each statement is an assertion about a parameter-dependent integral equation and its asymptotics as λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+, with the Euler–Mascheroni constant and ζ(3)\zeta(3)ζ(3) arising from the asymptotics of ∫0Xtanh⁡(x)/x dx\int_0^X\tanh(x)/x\,dx∫0X​tanh(x)/xdx and from a Sommerfeld-type expansion near TcT_cTc​. These results are classical in the physics literature; the mission aims at a machine-checked derivation of the textbook constants from the gap equation, together with reusable lemmas on monotone parameter-dependent integrals.

Difficulty

The T=0T=0T=0 statements reduce to an explicit antiderivative. The finite-temperature statements do not: TcT_cTc​ and Δ(T)\Delta(T)Δ(T) are defined only implicitly, so the asymptotics require a uniform expansion ∫0Xtanh⁡(x)/x dx=log⁡X+log⁡(4eγ/π)+o(1)\int_0^X\tanh(x)/x\,dx=\log X+\log(4e^\gamma/\pi)+o(1)∫0X​tanh(x)/xdx=logX+log(4eγ/π)+o(1). The near-TcT_cTc​ and specific-heat statements additionally concern the behaviour of Δ(T)2\Delta(T)^2Δ(T)2 at the boundary point TcT_cTc​, where Δ\DeltaΔ itself is not differentiable, and the evaluation of the resulting coefficient in the limit ℏωD/kBTc→∞\hbar\omega_D/k_BT_c\to\inftyℏωD​/kB​Tc​→∞.

Formalization scope

  • All quantities are real numbers. Δ(0)\Delta(0)Δ(0), TcT_cTc​ and Δ(T)\Delta(T)Δ(T) are defined as real suprema (sSup) of the corresponding positive solution sets, so they equal 000 when no positive solution exists; existence and uniqueness are separate milestones. In particular Δ(T)=0\Delta(T)=0Δ(T)=0 for T≥TcT\ge T_cT≥Tc​.
  • The zero-temperature gap is a separate definition: at T=0T=0T=0 the finite-temperature integrand is not used.
  • The coupling enters only through λ=V0Z(EF)\lambda = V_0Z(E_F)λ=V0​Z(EF​); asymptotic claims are limits λ→0+\lambda\to0^+λ→0+ at fixed kB,ℏωD>0k_B,\hbar\omega_D>0kB​,ℏωD​>0, with the exact constants 2eγ/π2e^\gamma/\pi2eγ/π, 8e2γ/(7ζ(3))8e^{2\gamma}/(7\zeta(3))8e2γ/(7ζ(3)) and 12/(7ζ(3))12/(7\zeta(3))12/(7ζ(3)) in place of the rounded 1,141{,}141,14, 1,7421{,}74^21,742 and 1,431{,}431,43. ζ(3)\zeta(3)ζ(3) is written as the real part of riemannZeta 3.
  • The specific heat is not modeled thermodynamically; the jump milestone formalizes the source's closed-form expression in terms of −dΔ2/dT-d\Delta^2/dT−dΔ2/dT at TcT_cTc​.
  • Needed infrastructure: monotonicity and continuity of parameter-dependent interval integrals, the integral identity for arsinh⁡\operatorname{arsinh}arsinh, asymptotics of ∫0Xtanh⁡x/x dx\int_0^X\tanh x/x\,dx∫0X​tanhx/xdx, and Mathlib's Euler–Mascheroni constant and ζ(3)\zeta(3)ζ(3).

Selected references

  • J. Bardeen, L. N. Cooper, J. R. Schrieffer, Theory of Superconductivity, Phys. Rev. 108, 1175 (1957). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.108.1175
  • L. N. Cooper, Bound Electron Pairs in a Degenerate Fermi Gas, Phys. Rev. 104, 1189 (1956). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRev.104.1189
  • Wikipedia (de), BCS-Theorie, section Erfolge der BCS-Theorie (source used for all statements). https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCS-Theorie
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Dynamical SystemsLinear algebra·Captain: Lucas

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium I: The Taylor Principle and DeterminacyTextbook

Motivation

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are the standard framework used by central banks and fiscal authorities for policy analysis and forecasting (Wikipedia overview). The models used for monetary-policy analysis are built from three interrelated blocks — demand, supply and a monetary-policy rule — that jointly determine output, inflation and the nominal interest rate. The canonical small-scale instance is the three-equation New Keynesian model (Woodford 2003; Galí 2008; Clarida, Galí and Gertler 1999).

A basic question about such a model is whether it pins down a unique equilibrium path at all. If many bounded paths solve the model, the model makes no definite prediction and expectations can become self-fulfilling. The answer for the three-equation model is the Taylor principle: the interest-rate rule must respond to inflation strongly enough.

Timeline. Blanchard and Kahn (1980) gave the eigenvalue-counting criterion for existence and uniqueness of bounded solutions of linear rational-expectations models. Kydland and Prescott (1982) started the real-business-cycle/DSGE programme. Rotemberg and Woodford (1997) introduced the New Keynesian DSGE framework. Bullard and Mitra (2002) derived the explicit determinacy condition κ(ϕπ−1)+(1−β)ϕy>0\kappa(\phi_\pi - 1) + (1-\beta)\phi_y > 0κ(ϕπ​−1)+(1−β)ϕy​>0 for the model with a contemporaneous Taylor rule, presented in textbook form by Galí (2008, Ch. 3).

Setting

Time is discrete, t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,…. All variables are deviations from the zero-inflation steady state: yty_tyt​ is the output gap, πt\pi_tπt​ inflation, and iti_tit​ the nominal interest rate. The parameters are σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0 (inverse elasticity of intertemporal substitution), β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1) (discount factor), κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0 (slope of the Phillips curve), and the policy coefficients ϕπ,ϕy≥0\phi_\pi, \phi_y \ge 0ϕπ​,ϕy​≥0.

A triple of real sequences (y,π,i)(y, \pi, i)(y,π,i) is an equilibrium if for every ttt

yt=yt+1−1σ(it−πt+1)(demand: dynamic IS curve)πt=βπt+1+κyt(supply: New Keynesian Phillips curve)it=ϕππt+ϕyyt(monetary policy: Taylor rule).\begin{aligned} y_t &= y_{t+1} - \tfrac{1}{\sigma}(i_t - \pi_{t+1}) && \text{(demand: dynamic IS curve)}\\ \pi_t &= \beta \pi_{t+1} + \kappa y_t && \text{(supply: New Keynesian Phillips curve)}\\ i_t &= \phi_\pi \pi_t + \phi_y y_t && \text{(monetary policy: Taylor rule).} \end{aligned}yt​πt​it​​=yt+1​−σ1​(it​−πt+1​)=βπt+1​+κyt​=ϕπ​πt​+ϕy​yt​​​(demand: dynamic IS curve)(supply: New Keynesian Phillips curve)(monetary policy: Taylor rule).​

The demand equation is the log-linearised consumption Euler equation, which equates marginal utility of consumption today with discounted marginal utility tomorrow. The model is determinate if the zero path is its only equilibrium in which yyy, π\piπ and iii all stay bounded.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Taylor principle

For σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0, 0<β<10 < \beta < 10<β<1, κ>0\kappa > 0κ>0, ϕπ,ϕy≥0\phi_\pi, \phi_y \ge 0ϕπ​,ϕy​≥0:

the model is determinate  ⟺  κ(ϕπ−1)+(1−β)ϕy>0.\text{the model is determinate} \iff \kappa(\phi_\pi - 1) + (1 - \beta)\phi_y > 0 .the model is determinate⟺κ(ϕπ​−1)+(1−β)ϕy​>0.

Milestones

  1. Consumption Euler equation. At an interior optimum of the two-period consumption–saving problem, u′(c0)=β(1+r)u′(c1)u'(c_0) = \beta(1+r)u'(c_1)u′(c0​)=β(1+r)u′(c1​).
  2. State-space form. For σ,β≠0\sigma, \beta \ne 0σ,β=0, the model is equivalent to (yt+1,πt+1)⊤=M(yt,πt)⊤(y_{t+1}, \pi_{t+1})^\top = M(y_t, \pi_t)^\top(yt+1​,πt+1​)⊤=M(yt​,πt​)⊤ together with the Taylor rule, for an explicit 2×22\times22×2 matrix MMM.
  3. Equilibria are parametrised by initial conditions. Each (y0,π0)(y_0, \pi_0)(y0​,π0​) determines exactly one equilibrium.
  4. Schur–Cohn test. For real TTT and D>0D > 0D>0, both roots of z2−Tz+Dz^2 - Tz + Dz2−Tz+D have modulus >1> 1>1 iff D>1D > 1D>1 and ∣T∣<1+D|T| < 1 + D∣T∣<1+D.
  5. Blanchard–Kahn lemma. For a real square matrix MMM, the only bounded solution of xt+1=Mxtx_{t+1} = Mx_txt+1​=Mxt​ is zero iff every complex eigenvalue of MMM has modulus >1> 1>1.

Significance

The result itself. The Taylor principle is the standard criterion for whether an interest-rate rule yields a well-defined equilibrium in New Keynesian models, and it is the first property checked when a policy rule is proposed. The determinacy region it describes is the starting point for the analysis of optimal policy and of learnability (Bullard and Mitra 2002).

Formalizing it. The result is classical and proved on paper. This mission formalizes the known argument. The mission produces a reusable Lean definition of the basic New Keynesian model, a general lemma on bounded orbits of linear recursions (which applies to any linear rational-expectations model with only forward-looking variables), and a formal Schur–Cohn criterion for real quadratics.

Difficulty

The economic content is elementary, but the obvious argument skips the hardest step. Textbook treatments state "determinacy holds iff both eigenvalues lie outside the unit circle" without proof, and the equivalence between "no nonzero bounded solution" and an eigenvalue condition has to be established for real sequences while the eigenvalues may be complex. In particular the converse direction needs a real bounded solution built from a complex eigenvector, and the boundary case of eigenvalues on the unit circle must come out on the non-determinate side. The parameter translation also has to handle complex-conjugate eigenvalues, not only real ones.

Formalization scope

  • Sequences are functions N→R\mathbb N \to \mathbb RN→R; the model is the deterministic (shock-free) version, so there are no expectation operators. Stochastic shocks do not change the determinacy condition, but that extension is outside the scope of this mission.
  • "Bounded" means a single real bound for all ttt; determinacy requires yyy, π\piπ and iii to be bounded. Boundedness of iii follows from that of yyy and π\piπ, so this adds no restriction.
  • Division is Lean's total division; every statement that divides by σ\sigmaσ or β\betaβ assumes they are nonzero (or positive).
  • Eigenvalues are complex roots of the characteristic polynomial of the complexified matrix.
  • The goal is not trivial: the zero path is always an equilibrium, determinacy is a genuine uniqueness claim, and the parameter hypotheses are satisfiable (e.g. σ=1\sigma = 1σ=1, β=0.99\beta = 0.99β=0.99, κ=0.1\kappa = 0.1κ=0.1, ϕπ=1.5\phi_\pi = 1.5ϕπ​=1.5, ϕy=0.5\phi_y = 0.5ϕy​=0.5).
  • All declarations live in the namespace DSGE. Contributions of general linear-recursion and polynomial-root lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_stochastic_general_equilibrium
  • O. J. Blanchard and C. M. Kahn, The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations, Econometrica 48(5), 1980. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912186
  • F. E. Kydland and E. C. Prescott, Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations, Econometrica 50(6), 1982. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913386
  • R. Clarida, J. Galí and M. Gertler, The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective, Journal of Economic Literature 37(4), 1999. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.37.4.1661
  • J. Bullard and K. Mitra, Learning about Monetary Policy Rules, Journal of Monetary Economics 49(6), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00144-7
  • M. Woodford, Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy, Princeton University Press, 2003.
  • J. Galí, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, Princeton University Press, 2008 (Chapter 3).
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AnalysisMathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Titius–Bode Law I: The −25%/+50% Coverage Band of Doubling Distance RulesTextbook

Motivation

The Titius–Bode law is an empirical rule, published in the eighteenth century by J. D. Titius and J. E. Bode, for the semi-major axes of the planets: in units in which the Earth's semi-major axis is 101010, the planets lie near 4+x4+x4+x with x=0,3,6,12,24,48,96,…x = 0, 3, 6, 12, 24, 48, 96, \dotsx=0,3,6,12,24,48,96,…. It anticipated the positions of Uranus (1781) and Ceres (1801), failed for Neptune (1846), and has since become a standard example of how a numerical pattern can fit data without a physical mechanism. Dermott's law (S. F. Dermott, 1968) is the analogous power law T(n)=T(0) CnT(n) = T(0)\,C^nT(n)=T(0)Cn for the orbital periods of the major satellites of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus.

Much of the debate about such rules is quantitative rather than physical. The Wikipedia article on the law records, in a footnote to its data table, the observation that because consecutive predicted distances roughly double, an arbitrary planet may be found within −25%-25\%−25% to +50%+50\%+50% of one of the predicted positions. In other words, the agreement of any single body with the rule at that level carries no information. This mission formalizes that observation and the elementary arithmetic of the law as stated in the source.

Timeline (as recorded in the source). Gregory (1702, 1715) and Wolff (1723–24) give the sequence 4,7,10,16,52,1004, 7, 10, 16, 52, 1004,7,10,16,52,100; Titius (1766) and Bode (1772) publish the rule; Uranus (1781) and Ceres (1801) fit it; Neptune (1846) does not; Blagg (1913) and Richardson (1945) replace the ratio 222 by about 1.731.731.73; Dermott (1968) proposes the period law for satellite systems; Nieto (1970, 1972) reviews the subject.

Setting

For a formal exponent n∈{−∞,0,1,2,… }n \in \{-\infty, 0, 1, 2, \dots\}n∈{−∞,0,1,2,…} put 2−∞=02^{-\infty} = 02−∞=0. The Titius–Bode distance in astronomical units is

a(n)=0.4+0.3⋅2n,n=−∞,0,1,2,…,a(n) = 0.4 + 0.3 \cdot 2^{n}, \qquad n = -\infty, 0, 1, 2, \dots,a(n)=0.4+0.3⋅2n,n=−∞,0,1,2,…,

so a(−∞)=0.4a(-\infty) = 0.4a(−∞)=0.4, a(0)=0.7a(0) = 0.7a(0)=0.7, a(1)=1.0a(1) = 1.0a(1)=1.0, a(2)=1.6,…a(2) = 1.6, \dotsa(2)=1.6,…. The same numbers appear in three other guises in the source: the original form 4+x4 + x4+x (Earth =10=10=10), the form 4+3⋅2n4 + 3 \cdot 2^n4+3⋅2n (Earth =10=10=10), and the canonical form an=0.4+0.3⋅2na_n = 0.4 + 0.3 \cdot 2^nan​=0.4+0.3⋅2n for n=0,1,2,…n = 0, 1, 2, \dotsn=0,1,2,…. The relative deviation of an observed value ddd from a predicted value ppp is (d−p)/p(d - p)/p(d−p)/p, which the source reports as a percentage.

Dermott's law models the period of the nnn-th satellite as T(n)=T(0) CnT(n) = T(0)\,C^nT(n)=T(0)Cn. Kepler's third law makes the semi-major axis proportional to the 2/32/32/3 power of the period, a=K T2/3a = K\,T^{2/3}a=KT2/3.

Formalization targets

Goal: the coverage band

∀d≥0.3:∃ n∈{−∞,0,1,2,… },−14  ≤  d−a(n)a(n)  ≤  12.\forall d \ge 0.3:\quad \exists\, n \in \{-\infty,0,1,2,\dots\},\qquad -\tfrac14 \;\le\; \frac{d - a(n)}{a(n)} \;\le\; \tfrac12 .∀d≥0.3:∃n∈{−∞,0,1,2,…},−41​≤a(n)d−a(n)​≤21​.

Every distance of at least 0.30.30.3 au lies within −25%-25\%−25% to +50%+50\%+50% of some Titius–Bode position. The lower limit 0.3=34⋅0.40.3 = \tfrac34 \cdot 0.40.3=43​⋅0.4 is exactly where the statement begins to hold: below it no predicted position is close enough. The source says "an arbitrary planet"; the formal statement makes the range explicit.

Supporting milestones

  1. The four representations of the rule (original, Earth =10=10=10, au, canonical) agree.
  2. The recursion an+1=2an−0.4a_{n+1} = 2a_n - 0.4an+1​=2an​−0.4 holds for the canonical form; started from a0=0.55a_0 = 0.55a0​=0.55, as printed in the source, it produces the canonical sequence shifted by one index.
  3. The predicted distances in the data table: 0.4,0.7,1.0,1.6,2.8,5.2,10.0,19.6,38.80.4, 0.7, 1.0, 1.6, 2.8, 5.2, 10.0, 19.6, 38.80.4,0.7,1.0,1.6,2.8,5.2,10.0,19.6,38.8 au, and 77.277.277.2 au for the next term.
  4. Consecutive predicted distances less than double, with ratio tending to 222.
  5. The abstract principle behind the goal: for any unbounded sequence with pk+1≤2pkp_{k+1} \le 2p_kpk+1​≤2pk​, every d≥34p0d \ge \tfrac34 p_0d≥43​p0​ lies within −25%-25\%−25% to +50%+50\%+50% of some pkp_kpk​.
  6. The 2:32{:}32:3 resonance figures: semi-major axes of bodies with periods in ratio 2:32{:}32:3 differ by −23.69%-23.69\%−23.69% and +31.04%+31.04\%+31.04% relative to one another.
  7. Dermott's law gives geometric spacing of periods (ratio CCC) and, through Kepler's third law, of semi-major axes (ratio C2/3C^{2/3}C2/3).

Significance

The goal makes precise why a fit of a single body to the Titius–Bode rule within tens of percent is weak evidence: the predicted positions are spaced so that the whole half-line [0.3,∞)[0.3, \infty)[0.3,∞) is covered by such bands. The resonance milestone gives the corresponding figures for a 2:32{:}32:3 period commensurability, and the Dermott milestone connects period power laws to Titius–Bode-type distance laws, as the source asserts.

All results are elementary and none is open. The value of the mission is a checked, unambiguous record of the arithmetic claims in the source, including one place where the source's formulas disagree: the "recursive form" with a0=0.55a_0 = 0.55a0​=0.55 does not reproduce the canonical form index-for-index but is shifted by one (milestone 2). No machine-checked version of these statements is known to exist on the platform.

Difficulty

There is no deep obstacle. The covering argument needs care in two places: the first step of the rule (0.4→0.70.4 \to 0.70.4→0.7) is not a doubling, and the generic doubling lemma must locate the first term that exceeds ddd without assuming monotonicity. The resonance milestone requires certified numerical bounds on the irrational numbers (2/3)2/3(2/3)^{2/3}(2/3)2/3 and (3/2)2/3(3/2)^{2/3}(3/2)2/3 that are tight enough to fix the second decimal place of a percentage.

Formalization scope

Distances, periods and deviations are real numbers. The exponent set {−∞,0,1,2,… }\{-\infty, 0, 1, 2, \dots\}{−∞,0,1,2,…} is encoded as the natural numbers with a bottom element adjoined, and 2−∞2^{-\infty}2−∞ is defined to be 000. The relative deviation is the plain quotient (d−p)/p(d-p)/p(d−p)/p; every statement only evaluates it at positive ppp. Percent figures from the source (−23.69%-23.69\%−23.69%, +31.04%+31.04\%+31.04%) are stated as "within 0.0050.0050.005 percentage points", i.e. correct to the two decimals printed. Kepler's law enters only as the hypothesis a=K T2/3a = K\,T^{2/3}a=KT2/3 with K>0K > 0K>0; no orbital mechanics is formalized. The doubling lemma is stated for an arbitrary real sequence and is reusable for any Titius–Bode-type rule.

Trivializing encodings are ruled out: the goal is not stated for an empty or bounded range of ddd, the predicted set is the full image of the rule, and the deviation band is the one printed in the source.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Titius–Bode law, revision 1372822920. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Titius%E2%80%93Bode_law&oldid=1372822920
  • Wikipedia, Dermott's law, revision 1315813288. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Dermott%27s_law&oldid=1315813288
  • M. M. Nieto, Conclusions about the Titius–Bode Law of Planetary Distances, Astronomy and Astrophysics 8 (1970), 105–111.
  • S. F. Dermott, On the origin of commensurabilities in the solar system – II: The orbital period relation, MNRAS 141 (1968), 363–376. https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/141.3.363
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Mathematical PhysicsQuantum Mechanics·Captain: Lucas

Koch, Mean-Field Theory: Hartree-Fock and BCS I: The Brillouin TheoremTextbook

Motivation

The Hartree-Fock method approximates the ground state of an interacting many-electron system by the best single Slater determinant. It is the starting point of essentially all of quantum chemistry and of mean-field theories in condensed-matter physics: post-Hartree-Fock methods (configuration interaction, coupled cluster, perturbation theory) expand around it, and its orbital energies are the standard first estimate of ionization and excitation energies. E. Koch's lecture notes Mean-Field Theory: Hartree-Fock and BCS (Jülich Autumn School on Correlated Electrons, 2016) derive the method entirely within second quantization: Slater determinants are products of creation operators acting on a vacuum, variations are generated by one-body unitaries eiλM^e^{i\lambda\hat M}eiλM^, and the stationarity condition becomes an algebraic statement about matrix elements. The central result of the Hartree-Fock section is the Brillouin theorem: a Slater determinant is stationary exactly when the Hamiltonian does not couple it to its single excitations.

Timeline of the ideas involved: Hartree introduces the self-consistent field (1928); Fock and Slater add exchange through antisymmetrized wave functions (1930); Koopmans relates orbital energies to ionization energies (1934); Brillouin formulates the single-excitation condition (1934); Thouless gives the representation of Slater determinants by exponentials of one-body operators (1960).

Setting

Fix KKK orthonormal reference orbitals ϕ0,…,ϕK−1\phi_0,\dots,\phi_{K-1}ϕ0​,…,ϕK−1​; an orbital is a coefficient vector φ∈CK\varphi\in\mathbb C^Kφ∈CK with ⟨φ∣χ⟩=∑μφμ‾χμ\langle\varphi|\chi\rangle=\sum_\mu\overline{\varphi_\mu}\chi_\mu⟨φ∣χ⟩=∑μ​φμ​​χμ​. The Fock space has orthonormal basis ∣S⟩|S\rangle∣S⟩, S⊆{0,…,K−1}S\subseteq\{0,\dots,K-1\}S⊆{0,…,K−1} (the set of occupied orbitals). The creation operator ci†c^\dagger_ici†​ maps ∣S⟩|S\rangle∣S⟩ to (−1)#{j∈S: j>i}∣S∪{i}⟩(-1)^{\#\{j\in S:\,j>i\}}|S\cup\{i\}\rangle(−1)#{j∈S:j>i}∣S∪{i}⟩ if i∉Si\notin Si∈/S and to 000 otherwise; the annihilation operator cic_ici​ is its adjoint, and for a general orbital cφ†=∑μφμcμ†c^\dagger_\varphi=\sum_\mu\varphi_\mu c^\dagger_\mucφ†​=∑μ​φμ​cμ†​. The vacuum is ∣0⟩=∣∅⟩|0\rangle=|\emptyset\rangle∣0⟩=∣∅⟩.

The Slater determinant of orbitals α1,…,αN\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_Nα1​,…,αN​ is ∣Φ⟩=cαN†⋯cα1†∣0⟩|\Phi\rangle=c^\dagger_{\alpha_N}\cdots c^\dagger_{\alpha_1}|0\rangle∣Φ⟩=cαN​†​⋯cα1​†​∣0⟩. A one-body operator with matrix MMM is M^=∑αβMαβcα†cβ\hat M=\sum_{\alpha\beta}M_{\alpha\beta}c^\dagger_\alpha c_\betaM^=∑αβ​Mαβ​cα†​cβ​. For a hermitian MMM the operators eiλM^e^{i\lambda\hat M}eiλM^ map Slater determinants to Slater determinants, and the energy functional along such a variation is

EM(λ)=⟨Φ∣eiλM^ H^ e−iλM^∣Φ⟩.E_M(\lambda)=\langle\Phi|e^{i\lambda\hat M}\,\hat H\,e^{-i\lambda\hat M}|\Phi\rangle .EM​(λ)=⟨Φ∣eiλM^H^e−iλM^∣Φ⟩.

For the concrete Hamiltonian of Sec. 3.2,

H^=∑n,mcn†Tnmcm+∑n>n′, m>m′cn†cn′†(Unn′,mm′−Unn′,m′m)cm′cm,\hat H=\sum_{n,m}c^\dagger_nT_{nm}c_m+\sum_{n>n',\,m>m'}c^\dagger_nc^\dagger_{n'}\bigl(U_{nn',mm'}-U_{nn',m'm}\bigr)c_{m'}c_m,H^=n,m∑​cn†​Tnm​cm​+n>n′,m>m′∑​cn†​cn′†​(Unn′,mm′​−Unn′,m′m​)cm′​cm​,

the Fock matrix of the determinant with occupied reference orbitals SSS is Fnm=Tnm+∑m′∈S(Unm′,mm′−Unm′,m′m)F_{nm}=T_{nm}+\sum_{m'\in S}(U_{nm',mm'}-U_{nm',m'm})Fnm​=Tnm​+∑m′∈S​(Unm′,mm′​−Unm′,m′m​), with diagonal entries the orbital energies εm\varepsilon_mεm​.

Formalization targets

Goal: the Brillouin theorem (Eqs. (62)–(63))

For a hermitian H^\hat HH^ and orthonormal α1,…,αN\alpha_1,\dots,\alpha_Nα1​,…,αN​,

(∀M=M†: EM′(0)=0)  ⟺  (∀ φo∈span⁡{αn}, φv⊥{αn}: ⟨Φ∣cφo†cφvH^∣Φ⟩=0).\Bigl(\forall M=M^\dagger:\ E_M'(0)=0\Bigr)\iff\Bigl(\forall\,\varphi_o\in\operatorname{span}\{\alpha_n\},\ \varphi_v\perp\{\alpha_n\}:\ \langle\Phi|c^\dagger_{\varphi_o}c_{\varphi_v}\hat H|\Phi\rangle=0\Bigr).(∀M=M†: EM′​(0)=0)⟺(∀φo​∈span{αn​}, φv​⊥{αn​}: ⟨Φ∣cφo​†​cφv​​H^∣Φ⟩=0).

It asserts no specific Hamiltonian, no particle number and no basis choice; it is the basis-independent form of the source's condition (63).

Milestones

The milestone list follows the source's own steps: the anticommutation relations (15); the overlap formula (7)/(46); the action of cφc_\varphicφ​, cφ†c^\dagger_\varphicφ†​ on a determinant (42); the one-body density matrix (43) and Wick's theorem (45); the transformation of vacuum and creators under eiλM^e^{i\lambda\hat M}eiλM^ (57), (59); the first-order variation (61)–(62). For the two-body Hamiltonian it adds the Fock-matrix form of the Brillouin condition (64), the Hartree-Fock energy, Koopmans' theorem (66) and the electron-hole excitation energy (67).

Significance

The Brillouin theorem turns the nonlinear variational problem over all Slater determinants into a condition on finitely many matrix elements; for a two-body Hamiltonian it says that the occupied–virtual block of the Fock matrix vanishes, which is the self-consistency condition solved by every Hartree-Fock code. Koopmans' theorem and the particle-hole formula give the physical interpretation of the orbital energies.

All results are classical and proved in the source and in standard textbooks. What this mission adds is a machine-checked account of second quantization on a finite orbital basis: the anticommutation relations, determinant overlaps and Wick's theorem for Slater determinants are reusable for any later formalization of configuration interaction, coupled cluster or BCS theory.

Difficulty

The source's arguments are short manipulations of operator identities, but each hides bookkeeping that is easy to get wrong: fermionic signs when operators are reordered, the identification of Slater determinants with ordered products of creators, and the Laplace expansion behind Wick's theorem. The variational step requires differentiating a matrix exponential on Fock space and identifying the derivative with a commutator. The direction from the Brillouin condition back to stationarity needs the hermiticity of H^\hat HH^ and a decomposition of an arbitrary hermitian MMM into occupied–occupied, virtual–virtual and occupied–virtual blocks; the first two blocks act on ∣Φ⟩|\Phi\rangle∣Φ⟩ only by a scalar. The Fock-matrix milestones additionally need the exchange symmetry Unn′,mm′=Un′n,m′mU_{nn',mm'}=U_{n'n,m'm}Unn′,mm′​=Un′n,m′m​ of two-body matrix elements stated in Sec. 2.3.2; without it the stated formulas fail.

Formalization scope

Fock space over KKK orbitals is represented concretely: vectors are functions on Finset (Fin K) and operators are complex matrices indexed by Finset (Fin K). Creators carry the sign (−1)#{j∈S: j>i}(-1)^{\#\{j\in S:\,j>i\}}(−1)#{j∈S:j>i}, so ordered products of creators of increasing orbitals give +∣S⟩+|S\rangle+∣S⟩. All quantities are complex; the exponential is NormedSpace.exp; stationarity is HasDerivAt … 0 0 for a function R→C\mathbb R\to\mathbb CR→C. Orthonormality of the occupied orbitals is an explicit hypothesis wherever the source assumes it. The source works with a possibly infinite orbital basis; here the basis is finite, as in the variational setting of its Sec. 3.

The equivalence in the goal cannot be satisfied vacuously: hermiticity of H^\hat HH^ and orthonormality of the orbitals are both satisfiable, and both sides quantify over all admissible MMM, respectively all occupied and virtual orbitals.

Two printed formulas are not taken verbatim: Eq. (60) lacks the minus sign in the exponent and is omitted, and Eq. (61) prints the first-order commutator in the opposite order; the milestone records the correct derivative i⟨Φ∣[M^,H^]∣Φ⟩i\langle\Phi|[\hat M,\hat H]|\Phi\ranglei⟨Φ∣[M^,H^]∣Φ⟩, which leaves (62) unchanged.

Contributions welcome: a general API for products of creation and annihilation operators in this model (sign lemmas, normal ordering), which all milestones share.

Selected references

  • E. Koch, Mean-Field Theory: Hartree-Fock and BCS, in E. Pavarini, E. Koch, J. van den Brink, G. Sawatzky (eds.), Quantum Materials: Experiments and Theory, Modeling and Simulation Vol. 6, Forschungszentrum Jülich, 2016. http://www.cond-mat.de/events/correl16
  • A. Szabo and N. S. Ostlund, Modern Quantum Chemistry: Introduction to Advanced Electronic Structure Theory, Dover, 1996.
  • T. Koopmans, Über die Zuordnung von Wellenfunktionen und Eigenwerten zu den einzelnen Elektronen eines Atoms, Physica 1 (1934) 104–113.
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics: Thermal Equilibrium and the Existence of TemperatureTextbook

Motivation

The zeroth law of thermodynamics is the principle that makes temperature a meaningful notion. In the formulation of Fowler and Guggenheim, and in the standard textbooks of Guggenheim, Buchdahl and Bailyn, it states: if two systems are both in thermal equilibrium with a third system, then they are in thermal equilibrium with each other. It was named by R. H. Fowler in the 1930s, after the first, second and third laws were already established, because it is logically prior to them: it is what justifies the use of thermometers and the assignment of a single "temperature" to each equilibrated system.

Mathematically, the content of the law is a statement about a binary relation. Together with the convention that each system is in equilibrium with itself, it turns thermal equilibrium into an equivalence relation, and an equivalence relation is exactly what is needed to "tag" every system with a label (an empirical temperature) so that two systems are in equilibrium precisely when their labels agree. This mission formalizes that chain of reasoning as presented in the Wikipedia article Zeroth law of thermodynamics.

Setting

Let SSS be a set (a type) whose elements are thermodynamic systems, each in its own state of internal equilibrium, and let TE\mathrm{TE}TE be a binary relation on SSS; TE(A,B)\mathrm{TE}(A,B)TE(A,B) reads "AAA is in thermal equilibrium with BBB". No further structure is assumed.

  • The zeroth law (right-Euclidean form) is the property
∀A,B,C∈S,TE(A,C) ∧ TE(B,C) ⟹ TE(A,B).\forall A,B,C\in S,\quad \mathrm{TE}(A,C)\ \wedge\ \mathrm{TE}(B,C)\ \Longrightarrow\ \mathrm{TE}(A,B).∀A,B,C∈S,TE(A,C) ∧ TE(B,C) ⟹ TE(A,B).
  • Planck's form (left-Euclidean form) is the property
∀A,B,C∈S,TE(C,A) ∧ TE(C,B) ⟹ TE(A,B).\forall A,B,C\in S,\quad \mathrm{TE}(C,A)\ \wedge\ \mathrm{TE}(C,B)\ \Longrightarrow\ \mathrm{TE}(A,B).∀A,B,C∈S,TE(C,A) ∧ TE(C,B) ⟹ TE(A,B).
  • Reflexivity is the convention TE(A,A)\mathrm{TE}(A,A)TE(A,A) for all AAA.
  • A map t:S→Tt : S\to Tt:S→T into any set TTT is an empirical temperature for TE\mathrm{TE}TE if
∀A,B∈S,TE(A,B)  ⟺  t(A)=t(B).\forall A,B\in S,\quad \mathrm{TE}(A,B)\iff t(A)=t(B).∀A,B∈S,TE(A,B)⟺t(A)=t(B).

Formalization targets

Goal: existence of temperature

(∀A, TE(A,A)) ∧ zeroth law ⟹ ∃ T, ∃ t:S→T, t is an empirical temperature for TE.\Big(\forall A,\ \mathrm{TE}(A,A)\Big)\ \wedge\ \text{zeroth law} \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\,T,\ \exists\, t:S\to T,\ t \text{ is an empirical temperature for } \mathrm{TE}.(∀A, TE(A,A)) ∧ zeroth law ⟹ ∃T, ∃t:S→T, t is an empirical temperature for TE.

This is the "existence of temperature" postulate of Fowler and Guggenheim: the condition for thermal equilibrium is equality of a single-valued function of the state. The labelling set TTT is left arbitrary, as in the source ("the labeling may be quite arbitrary").

Milestones

  1. Reflexivity + zeroth law ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ TE\mathrm{TE}TE is an equivalence relation.
  2. Reflexivity + Planck's form ⇒\Rightarrow⇒ TE\mathrm{TE}TE is an equivalence relation.
  3. Under reflexivity, the zeroth law and Planck's form are equivalent.
  4. Consequence: symmetry of thermal equilibrium.
  5. Consequence: transitivity of thermal equilibrium.
  6. A reflexive, transitive relation need not be an equivalence relation.
  7. An equivalence relation partitions the systems into classes of mutual equilibrium.
  8. An equivalence relation admits an empirical-temperature tagging.

Significance

The result is the logical foundation of thermometry: it is what allows any one system to serve as a thermometer for all others, and it underlies every empirical temperature scale and, via the second law, the absolute scale. The statements here are elementary and are known; the value of the mission is a clean, reusable formal vocabulary for thermal equilibrium (the two Euclidean forms of the law and the notion of an empirical temperature) on which formalizations of later parts of axiomatic thermodynamics can build.

Difficulty

None of the steps is deep. The point that needs care is that the zeroth law alone does not give an equivalence relation: reflexivity is an additional convention, and the source stresses that a reflexive and transitive relation is not automatically symmetric. Each milestone therefore states its reflexivity hypothesis explicitly.

Formalization scope

Systems form an arbitrary type S (possibly empty), and thermal equilibrium is an arbitrary relation TE : S → S → Prop. Equivalence relations are Lean's Equivalence; partitions use Mathlib's Setoid.IsPartition. The labelling type of an empirical temperature lives in the same universe as S. The richer structure of real-valued temperature (ordering into "hotter" and "colder", continuity) is explicitly not part of the zeroth law according to the source and is out of scope. Definitions ZerothLaw, ZerothLawPlanck, IsEmpiricalTemperature are shared by all statements, in the namespace ZerothLawThermo.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia contributors, Zeroth law of thermodynamics, revision 1328026962. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Zeroth_law_of_thermodynamics&oldid=1328026962
  • R. Fowler, E. A. Guggenheim, Statistical Thermodynamics, Cambridge University Press, 1939 (corrected 1965), p. 56.
  • E. H. Lieb, J. Yngvason, The physics and mathematics of the second law of thermodynamics, Physics Reports 310 (1999) 1–96. https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/9708200
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Mathematical Physics·Captain: Lucas

Classical Conservation Laws: Momentum, Energy and MassTextbook

Motivation

The conservation of momentum, of mechanical energy and of mass are the three bookkeeping laws on which elementary Newtonian mechanics and continuum mechanics rest. In Newtonian mechanics each of them is not an extra postulate but a theorem: momentum conservation follows from Newton's second and third laws, conservation of mechanical energy follows from Newton's second law when the forces are derived from a potential, and conservation of total mass in a fluid follows from the continuity equation. This mission asks for machine-checked proofs of these classical derivations, in the form in which they appear in the encyclopedia articles Momentum, Conservation of energy and Conservation of mass.

Historically, Huygens (1669) listed both the total momentum and the total vis viva ∑imivi2\sum_i m_i v_i^2∑i​mi​vi2​ as invariants of collisions; Leibniz (1676–1689) promoted the vis viva; the distinction between elastic and inelastic collisions and the general principle of energy conservation were clarified only in the 19th century. Lomonosov (1756) and Lavoisier (1773) established conservation of mass in chemical reactions; its continuum form is the continuity equation of fluid dynamics.

Setting

All motion takes place in Euclidean space Rd\mathbb{R}^dRd (any dimension ddd; d=3d = 3d=3 is the physical case), with the standard inner product ⟨⋅,⋅⟩\langle\cdot,\cdot\rangle⟨⋅,⋅⟩ and norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥.

  • A system of NNN particles has masses mi>0m_i > 0mi​>0, positions xi(t)x_i(t)xi​(t), velocities vi(t)=x˙i(t)v_i(t) = \dot x_i(t)vi​(t)=x˙i​(t) and accelerations ai(t)=v˙i(t)a_i(t) = \dot v_i(t)ai​(t)=v˙i​(t), for i=1,…,Ni = 1,\dots,Ni=1,…,N and all times t∈Rt \in \mathbb{R}t∈R.
  • Newton's second law: miai(t)m_i a_i(t)mi​ai​(t) equals the net force on particle iii.
  • Newton's third law for internal forces: the force FijF_{ij}Fij​ exerted on iii by jjj satisfies Fij=−FjiF_{ij} = -F_{ji}Fij​=−Fji​.
  • The total momentum is P(t)=∑imivi(t)P(t) = \sum_i m_i v_i(t)P(t)=∑i​mi​vi​(t), the centre of mass is R(t)=M−1∑imixi(t)R(t) = M^{-1}\sum_i m_i x_i(t)R(t)=M−1∑i​mi​xi​(t) with M=∑imiM = \sum_i m_iM=∑i​mi​, the kinetic energy is ∑i12mi∥vi∥2\sum_i \tfrac12 m_i \|v_i\|^2∑i​21​mi​∥vi​∥2.
  • A pair potential is a function φij=φji\varphi_{ij} = \varphi_{ji}φij​=φji​ of the distance rij=∥xi−xj∥r_{ij} = \|x_i - x_j\|rij​=∥xi​−xj​∥; the force it produces on iii is −φij′(rij) (xi−xj)/rij-\varphi_{ij}'(r_{ij})\,(x_i - x_j)/r_{ij}−φij′​(rij​)(xi​−xj​)/rij​ (e.g. gravity, φij(r)=−Gmimj/r\varphi_{ij}(r) = -G m_i m_j / rφij​(r)=−Gmi​mj​/r).
  • A fluid has density ρ(t,x)\rho(t,x)ρ(t,x) and velocity field u(t,x)u(t,x)u(t,x); the continuity equation is ∂tρ+∇⋅(ρu)=0\partial_t \rho + \nabla\cdot(\rho u) = 0∂t​ρ+∇⋅(ρu)=0, and the total mass is ∫Rnρ(t,x) dx\int_{\mathbb{R}^n} \rho(t,x)\,dx∫Rn​ρ(t,x)dx.

Target

The goal theorem is the conservation of both total momentum and total mechanical energy for an isolated NNN-body system interacting through symmetric pair potentials, along any collision-free trajectory:

P(t)=P(s),∑i12mi∥vi(t)∥2+∑i<jφij(∥xi(t)−xj(t)∥)=the same expression at s.P(t) = P(s), \qquad \sum_i \tfrac12 m_i\|v_i(t)\|^2 + \sum_{i<j}\varphi_{ij}\big(\|x_i(t)-x_j(t)\|\big) = \text{the same expression at } s.P(t)=P(s),i∑​21​mi​∥vi​(t)∥2+i<j∑​φij​(∥xi​(t)−xj​(t)∥)=the same expression at s.

Milestones:

  1. Conservation of momentum under Newton's third law (any internal forces).
  2. Uniform rectilinear motion of the centre of mass, with velocity P/MP/MP/M.
  3. Conservation of mechanical energy for a particle in a conservative force field F=−∇VF = -\nabla VF=−∇V.
  4. The work–energy theorem: change in kinetic energy equals the work ∫⟨F,v⟩ dt\int \langle F, v\rangle\,dt∫⟨F,v⟩dt.
  5. Head-on elastic collision of two bodies: the final velocities are either the initial ones or the classical formulas.
  6. Perfectly inelastic collision: common final velocity and the kinetic energy lost, 12mAmBmA+mB(uA−uB)2\tfrac12\frac{m_A m_B}{m_A+m_B}(u_A-u_B)^221​mA​+mB​mA​mB​​(uA​−uB​)2.
  7. Conservation of total mass for a compactly supported C1C^1C1 solution of the continuity equation.

Significance

These are the textbook consequences of Newton's laws used throughout mechanics, astronomy and engineering: momentum conservation determines the outcome of collisions and explosions, energy conservation gives first integrals that reduce equations of motion, and mass conservation is the first of the Euler equations of fluid dynamics. The results themselves are classical and fully known; the work in this mission is formalization. The platform already contains specialised instances (for example a two-body centre-of-mass statement and energy conservation in the Kepler problem); this mission states the general NNN-body, arbitrary-dimension versions and the continuum mass law, which can be reused by later mechanics missions.

Difficulty

The algebraic milestones (collisions) are elementary. The analytic ones require care: energy conservation needs the chain rule for V∘xV \circ xV∘x and for the norm ∥xi−xj∥\|x_i - x_j\|∥xi​−xj​∥, which is differentiable only away from collisions; the work–energy theorem needs the fundamental theorem of calculus for a continuous integrand; mass conservation needs differentiation under the integral sign and the vanishing of the integral of the divergence of a compactly supported C1C^1C1 vector field, a form of the divergence theorem that must be assembled from one-dimensional integration by parts.

Formalization scope

  • Space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d); time is ℝ; trajectories are defined for all times, and derivatives are given explicitly through HasDerivAt hypotheses (x˙i=vi\dot x_i = v_ix˙i​=vi​, v˙i=ai\dot v_i = a_iv˙i​=ai​) rather than through deriv.
  • Masses are strictly positive. The NNN-body goal assumes that no two particles ever coincide (collision-free trajectory), so that the pair forces are defined; pair potentials are only required to be differentiable on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞).
  • No definitions are introduced; every quantity is written out explicitly in each statement.
  • In milestone 5 the trivial outcome (velocities unchanged) is kept as an explicit alternative instead of being excluded by a hypothesis, so the statement is never vacuous.
  • In milestone 7 the continuity equation is written with partial derivatives deriv / fderiv, the density and the velocity field are jointly C1C^1C1 in (t,x)(t,x)(t,x), and the density vanishes outside a fixed ball for all times. The integral is the Lebesgue integral on Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn.

Selected references

  • Wikipedia, Momentum, sections "Many particles", "Conservation", "Application to collisions" — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Momentum
  • Wikipedia, Conservation of energy — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy
  • Wikipedia, Conservation of mass, section "Formulation and examples" — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_mass
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Stochastic Dual Dynamic Integer Programming 2: Lagrangian Cuts from the Local-Copy Reformulation Are Valid and Tight at Binary StatesResearch Paper

Motivation

Multistage stochastic integer programs model sequential decisions under uncertainty in which some decisions are discrete: unit commitment in power systems, capacity expansion, production planning with setups. Their linear (continuous) counterparts are routinely solved by nested decomposition methods such as stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP; Pereira and Pinto, 1991), which approximate each node's expected cost-to-go function from below by a maximum of linear cuts. With integer variables the cost-to-go functions are no longer convex, and cuts from linear programming duality are in general not exact at the points where they are generated.

Zou, Ahmed and Sun (Math. Program. 175 (2019) 461–502) restrict the state variables passed between stages to be binary and introduce a local copy znz_nzn​ of the parent's state at every node. Dualizing only the copy constraint zn=xa(n)z_n = x_{a(n)}zn​=xa(n)​ gives a class of cuts, the Lagrangian cuts, which the authors call "one of the major results of the paper" (p. 478). Their Theorem 3 shows that these cuts are valid (they never overestimate the true value function) and tight (they reproduce the current approximate value at the binary state where they are generated). Together with finiteness, these are the sufficient conditions of the paper's Definition 2 under which SND and SDDiP find an optimal solution in finitely many iterations with probability one (Theorem 2 of the paper, the subject of a companion mission).

Setting

Fix a node nnn of the scenario tree and an iteration iii of the algorithm. The node has:

  • a nodal constraint set Xn⊆Rd×Rd×RℓX_n \subseteq \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb R^d \times \mathbb R^\ellXn​⊆Rd×Rd×Rℓ of triples (zn,xn,yn)(z_n, x_n, y_n)(zn​,xn​,yn​), where xnx_nxn​ is the node's state, yny_nyn​ its local variables and znz_nzn​ the local copy of the parent's state. By assumption (A1) XnX_nXn​ is nonempty, compact and mixed integer polyhedral: the points of a polyhedron {w:Aw≥b}\{w : Aw \ge b\}{w:Aw≥b} with some coordinates integer;
  • a linear objective fn(xn,yn)=c⊤xn+e⊤ynf_n(x_n, y_n) = c^\top x_n + e^\top y_nfn​(xn​,yn​)=c⊤xn​+e⊤yn​;
  • children m∈C(n)m \in \mathcal C(n)m∈C(n) with conditional probabilities qnm≥0q_{nm} \ge 0qnm​≥0, a lower bound LnL_nLn​, and the children's cut coefficients (vmℓ,πmℓ)(v^\ell_m, \pi^\ell_m)(vmℓ​,πmℓ​) for ℓ=1,…,i\ell = 1, \dots, iℓ=1,…,i.

The approximate expected cost-to-go (3.2) is

ψni+1(x)=min⁡{θ:θ≥Ln, θ≥∑mqnm(vmℓ+(πmℓ)⊤x), ℓ=1,…,i},\psi^{i+1}_n(x) = \min\Big\{\theta : \theta \ge L_n,\ \theta \ge \sum_{m} q_{nm}\big(v^\ell_m + (\pi^\ell_m)^\top x\big),\ \ell = 1,\dots,i\Big\},ψni+1​(x)=min{θ:θ≥Ln​, θ≥m∑​qnm​(vmℓ​+(πmℓ​)⊤x), ℓ=1,…,i},

and the updated forward problem (3.1) at a parent state x^\hat xx^ has value

Q‾ni(x^,ψni+1)=min⁡{fn(x,y)+ψni+1(x):(z,x,y)∈Xn, z=x^, x∈{0,1}d}.\underline Q^i_n(\hat x, \psi^{i+1}_n) = \min\{ f_n(x,y) + \psi^{i+1}_n(x) : (z,x,y) \in X_n,\ z = \hat x,\ x \in \{0,1\}^d\}.Q​ni​(x^,ψni+1​)=min{fn​(x,y)+ψni+1​(x):(z,x,y)∈Xn​, z=x^, x∈{0,1}d}.

Let Xn′={(z,x,y)∈Xn:x∈{0,1}d, z∈[0,1]d}X'_n = \{(z,x,y) \in X_n : x \in \{0,1\}^d,\ z \in [0,1]^d\}Xn′​={(z,x,y)∈Xn​:x∈{0,1}d, z∈[0,1]d} and let Xn′′X''_nXn′′​ add a variable θ≥Ln\theta \ge L_nθ≥Ln​ that dominates every aggregated cut. The Lagrangian function and Lagrangian dual (4.3)–(4.4) are

Lni(π)=min⁡(z,x,y,θ)∈Xn′′fn(x,y)+θ−π⊤z,(Rni): max⁡π∈Rd Lni(π)+π⊤x^.\mathcal L^i_n(\pi) = \min_{(z,x,y,\theta)\in X''_n} f_n(x,y) + \theta - \pi^\top z, \qquad (R^i_n):\ \max_{\pi\in\mathbb R^d}\ \mathcal L^i_n(\pi) + \pi^\top \hat x .Lni​(π)=(z,x,y,θ)∈Xn′′​min​fn​(x,y)+θ−π⊤z,(Rni​): π∈Rdmax​ Lni​(π)+π⊤x^.

An optimal π^\hat\piπ^ and v^=Lni(π^)\hat v = \mathcal L^i_n(\hat\pi)v^=Lni​(π^) define the Lagrangian cut θ≥v^+π^⊤xa(n)\theta \ge \hat v + \hat\pi^\top x_{a(n)}θ≥v^+π^⊤xa(n)​. Given true value functions QmQ_mQm​ of the children and Qn=∑mqnmQm\mathcal Q_n = \sum_m q_{nm} Q_mQn​=∑m​qnm​Qm​, the true nodal value (2.3) is Qn(xa)=min⁡{fn(x,y)+Qn(x):(z,x,y)∈Xn, z=xa, x∈{0,1}d}Q_n(x_a) = \min\{f_n(x,y) + \mathcal Q_n(x) : (z,x,y) \in X_n,\ z = x_a,\ x \in \{0,1\}^d\}Qn​(xa​)=min{fn​(x,y)+Qn​(x):(z,x,y)∈Xn​, z=xa​, x∈{0,1}d}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 at one node

For binary x^∈{0,1}d\hat x \in \{0,1\}^dx^∈{0,1}d and π^\hat\piπ^ optimal for (Rni)(R^i_n)(Rni​):

v^+π^⊤x^=Q‾ni(x^,ψni+1)(tightness, (3.5)),\hat v + \hat\pi^\top \hat x = \underline Q^i_n(\hat x, \psi^{i+1}_n) \qquad \text{(tightness, (3.5))},v^+π^⊤x^=Q​ni​(x^,ψni+1​)(tightness, (3.5)),

and, if the children's cuts are valid for QmQ_mQm​ on {0,1}d\{0,1\}^d{0,1}d and Qn≥Ln\mathcal Q_n \ge L_nQn​≥Ln​ there,

Qn(xa)≥v^+π^⊤xafor all xa∈{0,1}d(validity, (3.4)).Q_n(x_a) \ge \hat v + \hat\pi^\top x_a \quad \text{for all } x_a \in \{0,1\}^d \qquad \text{(validity, (3.4))}.Qn​(xa​)≥v^+π^⊤xa​for all xa​∈{0,1}d(validity, (3.4)).

The paper's statement for the whole collection of cuts of an iteration follows by applying this at every sampled node from the last stage backwards, exactly as its proof does by induction.

Milestones

  1. (4.5): v^+π^⊤x^=min⁡{fn+θ:(z,x,y,θ)∈conv(Xn′′), z=x^}\hat v + \hat\pi^\top\hat x = \min\{f_n + \theta : (z,x,y,\theta) \in \mathrm{conv}(X''_n),\ z = \hat x\}v^+π^⊤x^=min{fn​+θ:(z,x,y,θ)∈conv(Xn′′​), z=x^}, for any parent state at which (Rni)(R^i_n)(Rni​) has an optimal solution.
  2. Binary face: for binary x^\hat xx^, conv(Xn′′)∩{z=x^}=conv(Xn′′∩{z=x^})\mathrm{conv}(X''_n) \cap \{z = \hat x\} = \mathrm{conv}(X''_n \cap \{z = \hat x\})conv(Xn′′​)∩{z=x^}=conv(Xn′′​∩{z=x^}).
  3. Tightness (display after (4.5)).
  4. Validity, base case: at a last-stage node, Qn(xa)≥Lni(π)+π⊤xaQ_n(x_a) \ge \mathcal L^i_n(\pi) + \pi^\top x_aQn​(xa​)≥Lni​(π)+π⊤xa​.
  5. Validity, induction step ((4.6) and the display after it).

Significance

Tightness at binary states is what separates Lagrangian cuts from the cuts of continuous relaxations or of a direct Lagrangian relaxation of the constraints coupling stages: the paper's Example 2 shows a direct relaxation whose cut is not tight even at a binary state, and Example 1 shows that with a non-binary state the duality gap is positive. With valid, tight and finite cuts, SND and SDDiP become exact algorithms for multistage stochastic integer programs with binary states, and through binarization they approximate problems with general mixed-integer states.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked proof of it is known. Formalizing it requires a Lean statement of Geoffrion's theorem for this nodal problem (Lagrangian duality equals optimization over the convex hull of a mixed integer set), which is of independent use for integer programming, and the binary-face fact for sets inside the unit cube.

Difficulty

The validity half is weak duality and is short. The difficulty is in tightness. Step (4.5) is a strong duality statement for a nonconvex set: it needs that the convex hull of Xn′′X''_nXn′′​ is a polyhedron, which follows only because XnX_nXn​ is compact and mixed integer polyhedral (so Xn′X'_nXn′​ is a finite union of polytopes), and then linear programming duality with attainment over that polyhedron. Neither the polyhedrality of convex hulls of finite unions of polytopes with a common recession direction nor finite-dimensional LP strong duality in the needed form is readily available in Mathlib. A tempting shortcut, Lagrangian duality from convex analysis with a Slater point, does not apply: a binary x^\hat xx^ lies on the boundary of the projection of conv(Xn′′)\mathrm{conv}(X''_n)conv(Xn′′​) onto zzz, so the constraint qualification fails and polyhedrality is genuinely needed.

Formalization scope

States, copies and multipliers are vectors in Rd\mathbb R^dRd (Fin d → ℝ); a state is binary when each coordinate is 000 or 111. Points of Xn′′X''_nXn′′​ are tuples (z, x, y, θ). Assumption (A1) is three fields of the node structure (nonempty, compact, mixed integer polyhedral after concatenating coordinates). Cuts are indexed by Fin i and children by Fin nC; probabilities are only required to be nonnegative. A last-stage node is nC = 0 with L = 0. The constraint z∈[0,1]dz \in [0,1]^dz∈[0,1]d (2.1c) is kept in Xn′X'_nXn′​ and folded into XnX_nXn​ in (2.3) and (3.1), as in the paper.

Readings of informal words:

  • "min" in ψni+1\psi^{i+1}_nψni+1​, Lni\mathcal L^i_nLni​, Q‾ni\underline Q^i_nQ​ni​, QnQ_nQn​: the definitions use sInf of the set of objective values, and every theorem states the minimum as an attained least element (IsLeast) or as a lower bound over all feasible points, so no junk value of sInf on an empty or unbounded set is used. The hypothesis Xn′′≠∅X''_n \ne \emptysetXn′′​=∅ makes Lni\mathcal L^i_nLni​ a genuine minimum.
  • "π^\hat\piπ^ optimal for (4.3)": maximizes π↦Lni(π)+π⊤x^\pi \mapsto \mathcal L^i_n(\pi) + \pi^\top\hat xπ↦Lni​(π)+π⊤x^ over all of Rd\mathbb R^dRd.
  • "the cuts are valid": Qn(xa)≥v^+π^⊤xaQ_n(x_a) \ge \hat v + \hat\pi^\top x_aQn​(xa​)≥v^+π^⊤xa​ is stated as a lower bound over every feasible point of (2.3), which is the paper's convention Qn=+∞Q_n = +\inftyQn​=+∞ on infeasible states.
  • The induction hypothesis of the validity proof is made explicit: all children's cuts ℓ=1,…,i\ell = 1,\dots,iℓ=1,…,i are valid, and Qn≥Ln\mathcal Q_n \ge L_nQn​≥Ln​ on binary states.
  • Tightness is stated with ψni+1\psi^{i+1}_nψni+1​; the proof's last line writes ψni\psi^i_nψni​, a misprint.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: Q‾ni\underline Q^i_nQ​ni​ is the primal value of the forward problem (3.1) with ψni+1\psi^{i+1}_nψni+1​ from (3.2) and is never defined through the dual, and validity is required at every binary xax_axa​, not only at x^\hat xx^.

A complete development needs: polyhedrality of convex hulls of bounded mixed integer sets, LP strong duality with attainment (or Geoffrion's theorem directly), Carathéodory-type reasoning in product spaces, and the fact that a binary point which is a positive convex combination of points of [0,1]d[0,1]^d[0,1]d equals each of them. The first two are reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of individual milestones are welcome independently; the validity milestones are accessible first.

Selected references

  • J. Zou, S. Ahmed, X. A. Sun, Stochastic dual dynamic integer programming, Math. Program. 175 (2019) 461–502. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-018-1249-5
  • A. M. Geoffrion, Lagrangean relaxation for integer programming, Math. Program. Study 2 (1974) 82–114. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0120690
  • M. V. F. Pereira, L. M. V. G. Pinto, Multi-stage stochastic optimization applied to energy planning, Math. Program. 52 (1991) 359–375. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01582895
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Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures V: Comonotonic Risk Sharing Among Wasserstein-Robust VaR Agents Gives All the Risk to One AgentResearch Paper

Motivation

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the regulatory risk measure for banking and insurance capital: it is the quantile of a loss distribution at a fixed tail probability. Two questions arise when several agents use it. First, risk sharing: if an aggregate loss XXX is split among agents i=1,…,ni=1,\dots,ni=1,…,n, each measuring its share with its own risk measure, what is the smallest total risk the group can achieve and which split achieves it? Second, model uncertainty: an agent rarely knows the distribution of a loss exactly, and a common response is to evaluate the worst case over all distributions close to an estimate, here in the sense of the Wasserstein distance used in distributionally robust optimization (Esfahani and Kuhn, 2018).

F. Liu, T. Mao, R. Wang and L. Wei, Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures (Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022; the version used here is the authors' SSRN copy 3490348 of January 16, 2022, ssrn.com/abstract=3490348), combine the two questions. When each agent uses a Wasserstein-robust VaR and the split must be comonotonic (every share increases with the total, the usual requirement in insurance), their Theorem 6 gives the optimal total risk in closed form and shows that one agent should carry the entire loss.

Setting

Fix an atomless probability space (Ω,F,P)(\Omega,\mathcal F,\mathbb P)(Ω,F,P): every event of positive probability contains an event of strictly smaller positive probability. A random variable XXX is a loss, with distribution function FX(x)=P(X≤x)F_X(x)=\mathbb P(X\le x)FX​(x)=P(X≤x). The domain is X=L∞\mathcal X=L^\inftyX=L∞, the essentially bounded measurable random variables.

For α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1) the left and right Value-at-Risk are

VaRαL(X)=inf⁡{x:FX(x)≥1−α},VaRαR(X)=inf⁡{x:FX(x)>1−α},\mathrm{VaR}^L_\alpha(X)=\inf\{x: F_X(x)\ge1-\alpha\},\qquad \mathrm{VaR}^R_\alpha(X)=\inf\{x: F_X(x)>1-\alpha\},VaRαL​(X)=inf{x:FX​(x)≥1−α},VaRαR​(X)=inf{x:FX​(x)>1−α},

so a small α\alphaα looks far into the tail of the loss. Λ∈{L,R}\Lambda\in\{L,R\}Λ∈{L,R} selects one of the two.

The Wasserstein metric of order k≥1k\ge1k≥1 between XXX and YYY with quantile functions F−1F^{-1}F−1 and G−1G^{-1}G−1 is

Wk(X,Y)=(∫01∣F−1(x)−G−1(x)∣k dx)1/k,W_k(X,Y)=\Big(\int_0^1|F^{-1}(x)-G^{-1}(x)|^k\,\mathrm dx\Big)^{1/k},Wk​(X,Y)=(∫01​∣F−1(x)−G−1(x)∣kdx)1/k,

and the robust version of a risk measure ρ\rhoρ at radius δ>0\delta>0δ>0 is

[ρ]δk(X)=sup⁡{ρ(Y):Y∈L∞, Wk(Y,X)≤δ}.[\rho]^k_\delta(X)=\sup\{\rho(Y): Y\in L^\infty,\ W_k(Y,X)\le\delta\}.[ρ]δk​(X)=sup{ρ(Y):Y∈L∞, Wk​(Y,X)≤δ}.

Two random variables X,YX,YX,Y are comonotonic if (X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0(X(\omega)-X(\omega'))(Y(\omega)-Y(\omega'))\ge0(X(ω)−X(ω′))(Y(ω)−Y(ω′))≥0 for all ω,ω′\omega,\omega'ω,ω′ in an event of probability one. The comonotonic allocations of XXX among nnn agents are

An+(X)={(X1,…,Xn)∈(L∞)n:X1+⋯+Xn=X, Xi comonotonic with X},\mathbb A^+_n(X)=\{(X_1,\dots,X_n)\in(L^\infty)^n: X_1+\dots+X_n=X,\ X_i \text{ comonotonic with } X\},An+​(X)={(X1​,…,Xn​)∈(L∞)n:X1​+⋯+Xn​=X, Xi​ comonotonic with X},

and the constrained inf-convolution of ρ1,…,ρn\rho_1,\dots,\rho_nρ1​,…,ρn​ is ⊞i=1nρi(X)=inf⁡{∑iρi(Xi):(X1,…,Xn)∈An+(X)}\boxplus_{i=1}^n\rho_i(X)=\inf\{\sum_i\rho_i(X_i):(X_1,\dots,X_n)\in\mathbb A^+_n(X)\}⊞i=1n​ρi​(X)=inf{∑i​ρi​(Xi​):(X1​,…,Xn​)∈An+​(X)}. An allocation attaining the infimum is optimal.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (p. 31)

Let X∈L∞X\in L^\inftyX∈L∞ and Λ∈{L,R}\Lambda\in\{L,R\}Λ∈{L,R}.

(i) If 0<δ1≤⋯≤δn0<\delta_1\le\dots\le\delta_n0<δ1​≤⋯≤δn​ and α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1), then

⊞i=1n[VaRαΛ]δi1(X)=[VaRαΛ]δ11(X)+∑i=2nδiα.\mathop{\boxplus}_{i=1}^n[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_\alpha]^1_{\delta_i}(X)=[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_\alpha]^1_{\delta_1}(X)+\sum_{i=2}^n\frac{\delta_i}{\alpha}.⊞i=1n​[VaRαΛ​]δi​1​(X)=[VaRαΛ​]δ1​1​(X)+i=2∑n​αδi​​.

(ii) If 1>α1≥⋯≥αn>01>\alpha_1\ge\dots\ge\alpha_n>01>α1​≥⋯≥αn​>0 and δ>0\delta>0δ>0, then

⊞i=1n[VaRαiΛ]δ1(X)=[VaRα1Λ]δ1(X)+∑i=2nδαi.\mathop{\boxplus}_{i=1}^n[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_{\alpha_i}]^1_{\delta}(X)=[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_{\alpha_1}]^1_{\delta}(X)+\sum_{i=2}^n\frac{\delta}{\alpha_i}.⊞i=1n​[VaRαi​Λ​]δ1​(X)=[VaRα1​Λ​]δ1​(X)+i=2∑n​αi​δ​.

In either case (X,0,…,0)(X,0,\dots,0)(X,0,…,0) is an optimal comonotonic allocation.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 4(iii), (34)–(35), p. 30. For k≥1k\ge1k≥1, δ>0\delta>0δ>0, α∈(0,1)\alpha\in(0,1)α∈(0,1): [VaRαL]δk(X)=[VaRαR]δk(X)=x[\mathrm{VaR}^L_\alpha]^k_\delta(X)=[\mathrm{VaR}^R_\alpha]^k_\delta(X)=x[VaRαL​]δk​(X)=[VaRαR​]δk​(X)=x, where xxx is the unique solution of ∫0α(x−VaRuR(X))+k du=δk\int_0^\alpha(x-\mathrm{VaR}^R_u(X))_+^k\,\mathrm du=\delta^k∫0α​(x−VaRuR​(X))+k​du=δk, and [VaRαR]δk(X)≥VaRαR(X)+δ/α1/k[\mathrm{VaR}^R_\alpha]^k_\delta(X)\ge\mathrm{VaR}^R_\alpha(X)+\delta/\alpha^{1/k}[VaRαR​]δk​(X)≥VaRαR​(X)+δ/α1/k.
  2. (40), p. 31. With Vδ=[VaRαL]δ1V_\delta=[\mathrm{VaR}^L_\alpha]^1_\deltaVδ​=[VaRαL​]δ1​: Vδ(Y)≤0V_\delta(Y)\le0Vδ​(Y)≤0 if and only if ∫0α(−VaRuL(Y))+ du≥δ\int_0^\alpha(-\mathrm{VaR}^L_u(Y))_+\,\mathrm du\ge\delta∫0α​(−VaRuL​(Y))+​du≥δ.
  3. (39), p. 31. For δ1≤δ2\delta_1\le\delta_2δ1​≤δ2​: Vδ1⊞Vδ2(X)≤Vδ1(X)+δ2/αV_{\delta_1}\boxplus V_{\delta_2}(X)\le V_{\delta_1}(X)+\delta_2/\alphaVδ1​​⊞Vδ2​​(X)≤Vδ1​​(X)+δ2​/α, through the allocation (X+δ2/α, −δ2/α)(X+\delta_2/\alpha,\,-\delta_2/\alpha)(X+δ2​/α,−δ2​/α).
  4. (38), p. 31. For δ1≤δ2\delta_1\le\delta_2δ1​≤δ2​: Vδ1⊞Vδ2(X)=Vδ1(X)+δ2/αV_{\delta_1}\boxplus V_{\delta_2}(X)=V_{\delta_1}(X)+\delta_2/\alphaVδ1​​⊞Vδ2​​(X)=Vδ1​​(X)+δ2​/α.
  5. (41), p. 33. For λ≥1\lambda\ge1λ≥1 with λα<1\lambda\alpha<1λα<1: [VaRαΛ]δ1≥[VaRλαΛ]λδ1[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_\alpha]^1_\delta\ge[\mathrm{VaR}^\Lambda_{\lambda\alpha}]^1_{\lambda\delta}[VaRαΛ​]δ1​≥[VaRλαΛ​]λδ1​ on L∞L^\inftyL∞.

Significance

The theorem is one of the few explicit solutions of a risk-sharing problem with model uncertainty and non-convex agents. Without uncertainty, the inf-convolution of VaRs is a VaR at the summed level (Theorem 1 of the same paper), and its optimal allocations split the tail of the loss across agents. Under Wasserstein uncertainty and a comonotonicity constraint the structure changes: the optimum concentrates the whole loss on the agent least sensitive to uncertainty when the levels agree, or least sensitive to risk when the radii agree, and the remaining agents hold only cash. In particular the equal split (X/n,…,X/n)(X/n,\dots,X/n)(X/n,…,X/n), optimal for identical convex risk measures, is in general not optimal here. Proposition 4(iii) is independently useful: it computes the worst-case VaR over a one-dimensional Wasserstein ball of any order and shows that left and right VaR coincide after robustification.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known, none of them has a machine-checked proof; this mission produces the first formal statements and, eventually, proofs. The quantile-based Wasserstein metric, the robust risk measure and the comonotonic inf-convolution are reusable objects for further work on robust risk measures.

Difficulty

The upper bound is a direct computation with one explicit allocation. The lower bound is the hard part. VaR is not convex, so the duality arguments that solve the inf-convolution of convex risk measures do not apply, and the robust VaR is not a distortion risk measure to which the Expected Shortfall formula of Proposition 4(ii) applies. The paper itself notes (p. 30) that the inf-convolution of robust VaRs over all allocations is hard to compute because VaR lacks convexity, and obtains only two-sided bounds there, which are generally not sharp. The explicit formula of Theorem 6 depends on the comonotonicity constraint, on the order k=1k=1k=1, and on the agents sharing either the level or the radius; the paper states it only under these assumptions, and the ordering of the radii or levels is necessary for the identity as written, since it singles out the agent who carries the loss. For Proposition 4(iii), the supremum over the ball is a supremum over distributions, and identifying it with a real number requires realising worst-case distributions as random variables on the given space, which is where atomlessness is used.

Formalization scope

Random variables are functions Ω→R\Omega\to\mathbb RΩ→R; L∞L^\inftyL∞ is the set of measurable, almost surely bounded functions, with no quotient. The probability measure is atomless in the splitting sense. The quantile function is FX−1(x)=VaR1−xL(X)F^{-1}_X(x)=\mathrm{VaR}^L_{1-x}(X)FX−1​(x)=VaR1−xL​(X), and the Wasserstein integral is the interval integral over [0,1][0,1][0,1]; for X,Y∈L∞X,Y\in L^\inftyX,Y∈L∞ its integrand is bounded and monotone on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1), so the integral is the paper's. The supremum in the robust measure ranges over Y∈L∞Y\in L^\inftyY∈L∞ only, as in the paper. It is a real supremum: the set is nonempty since it contains ρ(X)\rho(X)ρ(X), and for VaR its boundedness from above is part of the statement of Proposition 4(iii), so no junk value enters. Allocation constraints ∑iXi=X\sum_iX_i=X∑i​Xi​=X hold pointwise. The constrained inf-convolution is valued in the extended reals. The n=m+1n=m+1n=m+1 agents are indexed by Fin (m+1), so n≥1n\ge1n≥1; the orderings of the radii and of the levels are hypotheses, since without them the identities fail. Theorem 6 is stated for order k=1k=1k=1; Proposition 4(iii) for every real k≥1k\ge1k≥1. The single implicit hypothesis made explicit is λα<1\lambda\alpha<1λα<1 in (41), which keeps the VaR level in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).

A formalization in which the robust supremum ranges over all measurable functions, or over an unbounded set where the real supremum is 000, would make the identities trivial or false; both are excluded by the definitions above.

The development needs: quantile functions of bounded random variables and their monotonicity; the existence on an atomless space of a random variable with a prescribed quantile function; comonotonic additivity of VaR; and the interval-integral calculus for monotone integrands. Contributions of general lemmas on quantile functions and on one-dimensional Wasserstein distances are welcome and reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • F. Liu, T. Mao, R. Wang, L. Wei, Inf-Convolution, Optimal Allocations, and Model Uncertainty for Tail Risk Measures, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2022; SSRN version of January 16, 2022. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3490348 , https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2021.1217
  • P. Embrechts, H. Liu, R. Wang, Quantile-based risk sharing, Operations Research 66(4), 2018. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1716
  • P. Mohajerin Esfahani, D. Kuhn, Data-driven distributionally robust optimization using the Wasserstein metric, Mathematical Programming 171, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10107-017-1172-1
  • J. Dhaene, S. Vanduffel, M. Goovaerts, R. Kaas, Q. Tang, D. Vyncke, Risk measures and comonotonicity: a review, Stochastic Models 22(4), 2006. https://doi.org/10.1080/15326340600878016
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Convex OptimizationGraph TheoryOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Shortest Paths in Graphs of Convex Sets I: The Perspective Mixed-Integer Convex Program (5.5) Has the Same Optimal Value as the Shortest-Path Problem in a Graph of Convex SetsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many planning problems combine a discrete choice with a continuous one. A robot moving through a cluttered room chooses which free regions to traverse and where exactly to cross between them; a vehicle chooses a sequence of operating modes and a trajectory within each mode. Marcucci, Umenberger, Parrilo and Tedrake (arXiv:2101.11565, SIAM J. Optim. 2024, doi:10.1137/22M1523790) abstract this as the shortest-path problem in a graph of convex sets (SPP in GCS): a shortest-path problem in which each vertex is not a point but a convex set, and the length of an edge depends on where in its two sets the path enters and leaves. The paper shows that the problem is NP-hard even in simple cases, and then gives a mixed-integer convex formulation that is exact and whose convex relaxation is strong in practice. That formulation underlies the GCS motion planners developed later by the same group.

Setting

A graph of convex sets consists of a finite directed graph G=(V,E)G = (\mathcal V, \mathcal E)G=(V,E), a source vertex sss, a target vertex t≠st \neq st=s, a nonempty compact convex set Xv⊆Rn\mathcal X_v \subseteq \mathbb R^nXv​⊆Rn for each vertex vvv, and for each edge e=(u,v)e = (u,v)e=(u,v) an edge length ℓe:Rn×Rn→R≥0∪{∞}\ell_e : \mathbb R^n \times \mathbb R^n \to \mathbb R_{\ge 0}\cup\{\infty\}ℓe​:Rn×Rn→R≥0​∪{∞}, which is proper, closed and convex. No symmetry or triangle inequality is assumed. An sss-ttt path is a sequence p=(v0,…,vK)p = (v_0,\dots,v_K)p=(v0​,…,vK​) of distinct vertices with v0=sv_0 = sv0​=s, vK=tv_K = tvK​=t and (vk,vk+1)∈E(v_k, v_{k+1}) \in \mathcal E(vk​,vk+1​)∈E; Ep\mathcal E_pEp​ is the set of its edges. The SPP in GCS (2.1) is

SPP⁡(G):=inf⁡{∑e=(u,v)∈Epℓe(xu,xv):p an s-t path, xv∈Xv for v∈p}.\operatorname{SPP}(G) := \inf\Big\{ \sum_{e=(u,v)\in\mathcal E_p} \ell_e(x_u,x_v) : p \text{ an } s\text{-}t\text{ path},\ x_v \in \mathcal X_v \text{ for } v \in p \Big\}.SPP(G):=inf{e=(u,v)∈Ep​∑​ℓe​(xu​,xv​):p an s-t path, xv​∈Xv​ for v∈p}.

The perspective of a set X\mathcal XX is the closed cone X~:=cl⁡{(x,λ):λ≥0, x∈λX}\tilde{\mathcal X} := \operatorname{cl}\{(x,\lambda) : \lambda \ge 0,\ x \in \lambda\mathcal X\}X~:=cl{(x,λ):λ≥0, x∈λX} (Definition 4.1). The perspective of a function fff is f~(x,λ):=inf⁡{σ:(x,σ,λ)∈epi⁡f~}\tilde f(x,\lambda) := \inf\{\sigma : (x,\sigma,\lambda) \in \widetilde{\operatorname{epi} f}\}f~​(x,λ):=inf{σ:(x,σ,λ)∈epif​}, the function whose epigraph is the perspective of the epigraph of fff (Definition 4.4). For λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 it equals λf(x/λ)\lambda f(x/\lambda)λf(x/λ).

With Evin\mathcal E^{\mathrm{in}}_vEvin​ and Evout\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_vEvout​ the edges entering and leaving vvv, the MICP (5.5) has a flow ye∈{0,1}y_e \in \{0,1\}ye​∈{0,1} and two vectors ze,ze′∈Rnz_e, z'_e \in \mathbb R^nze​,ze′​∈Rn per edge:

minimize ∑e∈Eℓ~e(ze,ze′,ye)s.t. ∑Esoutye=1, ∑Etinye=1,  ∑Evoutye≤1,  ∑Evin(ze′,ye)=∑Evout(ze,ye)  (v≠s,t),(ze,ye)∈X~u, (ze′,ye)∈X~v, ye∈{0,1}  (e=(u,v)∈E).\begin{aligned} \text{minimize}\ & \textstyle\sum_{e\in\mathcal E}\tilde\ell_e(z_e,z'_e,y_e)\\ \text{s.t.}\ & \textstyle\sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_s} y_e = 1,\ \sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{in}}_t} y_e = 1,\ \ \sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_v} y_e \le 1,\ \ \sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{in}}_v}(z'_e,y_e) = \sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_v}(z_e,y_e)\ \ (v\ne s,t),\\ & (z_e,y_e)\in\tilde{\mathcal X}_u,\ (z'_e,y_e)\in\tilde{\mathcal X}_v,\ y_e\in\{0,1\}\ \ (e=(u,v)\in\mathcal E). \end{aligned}minimize s.t. ​∑e∈E​ℓ~e​(ze​,ze′​,ye​)∑Esout​​ye​=1, ∑Etin​​ye​=1,  ∑Evout​​ye​≤1,  ∑Evin​​(ze′​,ye​)=∑Evout​​(ze​,ye​)  (v=s,t),(ze​,ye​)∈X~u​, (ze′​,ye​)∈X~v​, ye​∈{0,1}  (e=(u,v)∈E).​

Its optimal value is MICP⁡(G)\operatorname{MICP}(G)MICP(G). The paper derives (5.5) from a biconvex program (5.2), the shortest-path LP (5.1) together with vertex positions xv∈Xvx_v \in \mathcal X_vxv​∈Xv​ and the bilinear constraints ze=yexuz_e = y_e x_uze​=ye​xu​, ze′=yexvz'_e = y_e x_vze′​=ye​xv​. Lemma 5.4 turns every valid linear inequality on the flows at a vertex into a valid perspective constraint.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.7 (p. 10)

Under the standing assumptions of §2 and the assumption of p. 7 that no edge enters sss and no edge leaves ttt,

MICP⁡(G)=SPP⁡(G).\operatorname{MICP}(G) = \operatorname{SPP}(G).MICP(G)=SPP(G).

Both sides are infima in the extended reals and equal +∞+\infty+∞ when there is no sss-ttt path.

Milestones

  1. Remark 4.2 (p. 5): for bounded closed X\mathcal XX, X~={(x,λ):λ≥0, x∈λX}\tilde{\mathcal X} = \{(x,\lambda): \lambda\ge0,\ x\in\lambda\mathcal X\}X~={(x,λ):λ≥0, x∈λX}.
  2. Remark 4.5 (p. 6): f~(x,λ)=λf(x/λ)\tilde f(x,\lambda) = \lambda f(x/\lambda)f~​(x,λ)=λf(x/λ) for λ>0\lambda>0λ>0, f~=∞\tilde f = \inftyf~​=∞ for λ<0\lambda<0λ<0, f~(0,0)=0\tilde f(0,0)=0f~​(0,0)=0 for proper closed convex fff.
  3. Lemma 5.4 (p. 9): a valid inequality ∑e∈Evceye+d≥0\sum_{e\in\mathcal E_v} c_e y_e + d \ge 0∑e∈Ev​​ce​ye​+d≥0 for (5.2) lifts to the valid constraint (∑Evinceze′+∑Evoutceze+dxv, ∑Evceye+d)∈X~v\big(\sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{in}}_v} c_e z'_e + \sum_{\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_v} c_e z_e + d x_v,\ \sum_{\mathcal E_v} c_e y_e + d\big)\in\tilde{\mathcal X}_v(∑Evin​​ce​ze′​+∑Evout​​ce​ze​+dxv​, ∑Ev​​ce​ye​+d)∈X~v​.
  4. Remark 5.5 (p. 9): the equality version of Lemma 5.4.
  5. Path and cycles (proof of Theorem 5.7): binary flows satisfying (5.5b)–(5.5d) form the vertex-disjoint union of an sss-ttt path and cycles.
  6. Simplification of (5.5e) (proof of Theorem 5.7): ye=0y_e = 0ye​=0 forces ze=ze′=0z_e = z'_e = 0ze​=ze′​=0 at cost 000; ye=1y_e = 1ye​=1 forces ze∈Xuz_e\in\mathcal X_uze​∈Xu​, ze′∈Xvz'_e\in\mathcal X_vze′​∈Xv​ at cost ℓe(ze,ze′)\ell_e(z_e,z'_e)ℓe​(ze​,ze′​).
  7. Flow along the path (proof of Theorem 5.7): for consecutive path edges e,fe, fe,f, ze′=zfz'_e = z_fze′​=zf​.

A companion item states the recovery part of Theorem 5.7 (second and third sentences): an optimal MICP solution yields an optimal path and optimal positions xu=zex_u = z_exu​=ze​, xv=ze′x_v = z'_exv​=ze′​.

Significance

Theorem 5.7 is what makes (5.5) usable: it says that the mixed-integer program, whose only nonconvexity is ye∈{0,1}y_e\in\{0,1\}ye​∈{0,1}, solves the SPP in GCS exactly. The SPP in GCS is NP-hard by Theorem 3.1, so exactness is the most one can ask of a polynomial-size formulation, and dropping integrality gives a convex program whose value is a lower bound for branch and bound. The perspective construction of Lemma 5.4 is a general recipe, closely related to the reformulation-linearization technique, for convexifying products of flows and positions.

On the formal side, the paper's proof is half a page and leaves several points to the reader: why the integer flows decompose into a path and cycles, why the closure in the perspective cone disappears for compact sets, and why the perspective function vanishes at the origin. A machine-checked proof makes these steps explicit. The result has not been formalized before, and the mission also produces reusable statements about perspectives of sets and functions in extended-real arithmetic and about the decomposition of unit sss-ttt flows with degree bounds.

Difficulty

The inequality MICP⁡(G)≤SPP⁡(G)\operatorname{MICP}(G) \le \operatorname{SPP}(G)MICP(G)≤SPP(G) is the routine half: a path and its positions give a feasible point of (5.5) of the same cost. The other half requires reading a path out of an arbitrary feasible point. Integer flows satisfying (5.5b)–(5.5d) need not be a path: they may also contain disjoint cycles, and the degree constraint (5.5c) is what prevents a cycle from sharing a vertex with the path (Example 5.10 shows the value drops without it). The cost of a cycle must be shown to be nonnegative, and the perspective constraints must be shown to collapse to ze=ze′=0z_e = z'_e = 0ze​=ze′​=0 on zero-flow edges. That step uses compactness of Xv\mathcal X_vXv​. For unbounded sets the zero slice of X~v\tilde{\mathcal X}_vX~v​ is the recession cone, and the argument fails. The cost at zero flow is ℓ~e(0,0,0)\tilde\ell_e(0,0,0)ℓ~e​(0,0,0), defined by a closure, and its value 000 uses properness and convexity of ℓe\ell_eℓe​, not just the formula λℓe(⋅/λ)\lambda\ell_e(\cdot/\lambda)λℓe​(⋅/λ).

Formalization scope

  • Rn\mathbb R^nRn is Fin n → ℝ. Edge lengths and all optimal values are EReal; optimal values are infima (⨅/sInf), equal to +∞+\infty+∞ on an empty feasible set. Attainment is not assumed.
  • The graph is a structure with a finite edge set E : Finset (V × V) over a finite vertex type, a source, a target, sets X v and lengths ℓ e. The standing assumptions of §2 (s≠ts\ne ts=t; Xv\mathcal X_vXv​ nonempty, compact, convex; ℓe≥0\ell_e \ge 0ℓe​≥0 proper closed convex) are the predicate IsGCS. The assumption ∣Esin∣=∣Etout∣=0|\mathcal E^{\mathrm{in}}_s| = |\mathcal E^{\mathrm{out}}_t| = 0∣Esin​∣=∣Etout​∣=0 of p. 7 is the separate predicate NoInSNoOutT, a hypothesis of the goal, of the path-and-cycles milestone and of the recovery item.
  • Paths are duplicate-free vertex lists from sss to ttt along edges; Ep\mathcal E_pEp​ is the list of consecutive pairs.
  • The perspective of a function is Definition 4.4's infimum over the closed perspective cone of the epigraph. The formula λf(x/λ)\lambda f(x/\lambda)λf(x/λ) is not used as a definition: in Lean it would evaluate to 000 at λ=0\lambda = 0λ=0 for every argument and erase the content of (5.5e). The integrality constraint ye∈{0,1}y_e \in\{0,1\}ye​∈{0,1} is part of the feasible set; without it the goal is false (§9.4 reports relaxation gaps).
  • Disclosed additions: Lemma 5.4 and Remark 5.5 assume no self-loop at vvv, which the page's partition of Ev\mathcal E_vEv​ into incoming and outgoing edges presupposes. The recovery item takes the sss-ttt path contained in {e:ye=1}\{e : y_e = 1\}{e:ye​=1}, since the page's claim that this set is itself a path fails when an optimal solution carries a zero-length cycle.
  • Needed infrastructure: closures of cones over compact sets, extended-real infima, and the combinatorics of unit flows on finite digraphs. Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas on perspectives, are welcome.

Selected references

  • T. Marcucci, J. Umenberger, P. A. Parrilo, R. Tedrake, Shortest Paths in Graphs of Convex Sets, SIAM Journal on Optimization 34(1), 2024; arXiv:2101.11565v5. https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.11565
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970 (perspectives and recession cones, §8). https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
  • R. K. Ahuja, T. L. Magnanti, J. B. Orlin, Network Flows: Theory, Algorithms, and Applications, Prentice Hall, 1993 (flow decomposition, shortest-path LP).
  • T. Marcucci, M. Petersen, D. von Wrangel, R. Tedrake, Motion Planning around Obstacles with Convex Optimization, Science Robotics 8(84), 2023. https://doi.org/10.1126/scirobotics.adf7843
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AnalysisOperations ResearchTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Online Stochastic Matching: New Algorithms with Better Bounds 2: The Per-Advertiser Inequality Behind the 0.706 Ratio for General Arrival Rates, in the Limit f − s ≤ 1 − ln 2Research Paper

Motivation

Online stochastic matching models display advertising and similar allocation problems in which requests arrive one at a time and must be served immediately. A bipartite graph links a set AAA of advertisers to a set III of impression types; nnn requests arrive, each of a type drawn independently with P(type i)=ri/n\mathbb P(\text{type } i) = r_i/nP(type i)=ri​/n, and each request must be assigned at once and irrevocably to an unmatched interested advertiser, or dropped. Performance is measured by the competitive ratio E[ALG]/E[OPT]\mathbb E[\mathrm{ALG}]/\mathbb E[\mathrm{OPT}]E[ALG]/E[OPT], where OPT is the maximum matching of the realized graph.

Without distributional knowledge the best possible ratio is 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e (Karp, Vazirani and Vazirani, 1990). Knowing the type distribution allows more:

  • Feldman, Mehta, Mirrokni and Muthukrishnan (2009) first beat 1−1/e1 - 1/e1−1/e, with 0.6700.6700.670, when every arrival rate is integral; Bahmani and Kapralov improved this to 0.6990.6990.699.
  • Manshadi, Oveis Gharan and Saberi (2011) obtained 0.7050.7050.705 for integral rates and 0.7020.7020.702 for general arrival rates, using offline statistics drawn by sampling.
  • Jaillet and Lu (2014) introduced Random Lists Algorithms with modified LPs and obtained 1−2e−2≈0.7291 - 2e^{-2} \approx 0.7291−2e−2≈0.729 for integral rates (Theorem 1), 0.7250.7250.725 for vertex weights (Theorem 2) and 0.7060.7060.706 for general rates (Theorem 3).

This mission concerns the analytic core of Theorem 3, the general-rates bound.

Setting

For an advertiser aaa, let f=fa≤1f = f_a \le 1f=fa​≤1 be the LP flow into aaa. Its neighbours a1∈Aa∗a_1 \in A^*_aa1​∈Aa∗​, which include a dummy advertiser ada_dad​ with fad=1f_{a_d} = 1fad​​=1, are indexed by j=1,…,kj = 1, \dots, kj=1,…,k. For each neighbour, xj=ma,a1=ma1,a≥0x_j = m_{a,a_1} = m_{a_1,a} \ge 0xj​=ma,a1​​=ma1​,a​≥0 is the expected number of random lists ⟨a,a1⟩\langle a, a_1\rangle⟨a,a1​⟩, and yj=fa1≤1y_j = f_{a_1} \le 1yj​=fa1​​≤1 is the neighbour's flow, so that xj≤yjx_j \le y_jxj​≤yj​. Write s=∑jxj≤fs = \sum_j x_j \le fs=∑j​xj​≤f and β=max⁡jxj\beta = \max_j x_jβ=maxj​xj​.

Claim 2 of the paper introduces the functions

h(y,x)={yy−x(e−x−e−y),x≠y,y e−y,x=y,g(y,x)=h(y,0)−h(y,x),h(y,x)=\begin{cases}\dfrac{y}{y-x}\bigl(e^{-x}-e^{-y}\bigr), & x\ne y,\\[4pt] y\,e^{-y}, & x=y,\end{cases}\qquad g(y,x)=h(y,0)-h(y,x),h(y,x)=⎩⎨⎧​y−xy​(e−x−e−y),ye−y,​x=y,x=y,​g(y,x)=h(y,0)−h(y,x),

where g(fa1,ma1,a)g(f_{a_1}, m_{a_1,a})g(fa1​​,ma1​,a​) is the probability that aaa is matched through a list headed by a1a_1a1​. The per-advertiser bracket is

B(f;x,y)=1−e−f+1e∑jg(f,xj)−12e(∑jg(yj,xj))2+12e∑jg(f,xj)2,B(f;x,y)=1-e^{-f}+\frac1e\sum_j g(f,x_j)-\frac1{2e}\Bigl(\sum_j g(y_j,x_j)\Bigr)^2+\frac1{2e}\sum_j g(f,x_j)^2,B(f;x,y)=1−e−f+e1​j∑​g(f,xj​)−2e1​(j∑​g(yj​,xj​))2+2e1​j∑​g(f,xj​)2,

and the reduced function of three variables is

R(f,β,s)=1f(1−e−f+1esβg(f,β)−12e(e−1(s−β)+g(1,β))2+12eg(f,β)2).R(f,\beta,s)=\frac1f\Bigl(1-e^{-f}+\frac1e\frac{s}{\beta}g(f,\beta)-\frac1{2e}\bigl(e^{-1}(s-\beta)+g(1,\beta)\bigr)^2+\frac1{2e}g(f,\beta)^2\Bigr).R(f,β,s)=f1​(1−e−f+e1​βs​g(f,β)−2e1​(e−1(s−β)+g(1,β))2+2e1​g(f,β)2).

In Lean these are h, g, bracket f x y and R f β s in RandomListsMatching.GeneralRates.

Formalization targets

Goal: the per-advertiser bound

For 0<f≤10 < f \le 10<f≤1, any k≥0k \ge 0k≥0 and reals with 0≤xj≤yj≤10 \le x_j \le y_j \le 10≤xj​≤yj​≤1, s=∑jxj≤fs = \sum_j x_j \le fs=∑j​xj​≤f and f−s≤1−ln⁡2f - s \le 1 - \ln 2f−s≤1−ln2,

B(f;x,y)f≥0.706.\frac{B(f;x,y)}{f} \ge 0.706 .fB(f;x,y)​≥0.706.

The paper bounds ∑apa/∑afa\sum_a p_a / \sum_a f_a∑a​pa​/∑a​fa​ below by min⁡aB(fa;⋅)/fa\min_a B(f_a; \cdot)/f_amina​B(fa​;⋅)/fa​ (p. 15), so this inequality is the whole of what Theorem 3's numerical constant rests on.

Milestones

  1. Claim 3 (three clauses, p. 15): for y∈[0,1]y \in [0,1]y∈[0,1], h(y,⋅)h(y,\cdot)h(y,⋅) is convex and decreasing on [0,y][0,y][0,y] and g(y,⋅)g(y,\cdot)g(y,⋅) is concave and increasing on [0,y][0,y][0,y]; for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, g(⋅,x)g(\cdot, x)g(⋅,x) is increasing on [x,∞)[x,\infty)[x,∞).
  2. Inequality (5), analytic part (p. 15): for 0≤x≤y≤10 \le x \le y \le 10≤x≤y≤1, h(y,0)−h(y,x)≤−x ∂2h(y,0)≤e−1xh(y,0)-h(y,x) \le -x\,\partial_2 h(y,0) \le e^{-1}xh(y,0)−h(y,x)≤−x∂2​h(y,0)≤e−1x.
  3. Chord bound (p. 15): ∑jg(f,xj)≥(s/β) g(f,β)\sum_j g(f,x_j) \ge (s/\beta)\, g(f,\beta)∑j​g(f,xj​)≥(s/β)g(f,β).
  4. Cross-sum bound (p. 15): ∑jg(yj,xj)≤e−1(s−β)+g(1,β)\sum_j g(y_j,x_j) \le e^{-1}(s-\beta) + g(1,\beta)∑j​g(yj​,xj​)≤e−1(s−β)+g(1,β).
  5. Reduction (p. 15): B(f;x,y)/f≥R(f,β,s)B(f;x,y)/f \ge R(f,\beta,s)B(f;x,y)/f≥R(f,β,s) when β>0\beta > 0β>0.
  6. Claim 4, corrected (p. 16): R(f,β,s)≥0.706R(f,\beta,s) \ge 0.706R(f,β,s)≥0.706 on 1≥f≥s≥β>01 \ge f \ge s \ge \beta > 01≥f≥s≥β>0, f−s≤1−ln⁡2f - s \le 1 - \ln 2f−s≤1−ln2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 gives 0.7060.7060.706 for online stochastic matching with general (non-integral) arrival rates, improving the 0.7020.7020.702 of Manshadi et al. The probabilistic half of its proof reduces matching probabilities to the closed forms hhh and ggg; the paper then states that "in the remaining part of the section, we only use algebraic manipulations and the following properties of functions ggg and hhh". That remaining part, posed here, is an exact real inequality, and it is where the constant 0.7060.7060.706 is decided.

Formalizing it. The paper proves Claim 3 in one line ("can be easily verified by taking first and second order partial derivatives") and Claim 4 by a grid computation over cubes of side 0.0010.0010.001, with no recorded error analysis. A machine-checked proof replaces both. It also settles the regime of the constant: Claim 4 as printed, with the constraint f−s≤(1−ln⁡2)+1/nf - s \le (1 - \ln 2) + 1/nf−s≤(1−ln2)+1/n "for n≥100n \ge 100n≥100", is false, and the bound holds in the limit form stated here. None of these statements has a formal proof anywhere, to the extent of the search made for this mission.

Difficulty

The margin is small. The minimum of RRR over the feasible region is about 0.7060280.7060280.706028, attained near (f,β,s)=(1,0.565,ln⁡2)(f,\beta,s) = (1, 0.565, \ln 2)(f,β,s)=(1,0.565,ln2) on the boundary f−s=1−ln⁡2f - s = 1 - \ln 2f−s=1−ln2; the margin over 0.7060.7060.706 is under 3⋅10−53 \cdot 10^{-5}3⋅10−5. Any argument that loses a constant factor in the estimates of e−xe^{-x}e−x, or replaces ln⁡2\ln 2ln2 by a rational bound that is not tight to five digits, fails. The bound is a three-variable statement with the minimum on a boundary face, so a one-variable monotonicity argument does not settle it.

The second difficulty is the function hhh itself. Its two-case definition is continuous but the quotient form has a removable singularity at x=yx = yx=y, which is exactly the end of the interval [0,y][0, y][0,y] on which Claim 3 asserts convexity and concavity. Derivative computations that are routine away from the diagonal need care there.

The natural first idea for the goal, to apply Claim 4 directly to the bracket, does not type-check: the bracket depends on the whole family (xj,yj)(x_j, y_j)(xj​,yj​), and the reduction to three variables through the chord and cross-sum bounds is a separate step.

Formalization scope

  • All quantities are real numbers. eee is Real.exp 1, ln⁡2\ln 2ln2 is Real.log 2, and 0.7060.7060.706 is the exact rational (0.706 : ℝ).
  • hhh keeps the paper's case split at x=yx = yx=y. The neighbour family is indexed by Fin k, and k=0k = 0k=0 is allowed.
  • "Increasing" and "decreasing" are non-strict (MonotoneOn, AntitoneOn); convexity is ConvexOn ℝ (Set.Icc 0 y). The derivative in (5) is deriv (fun t => h y t) 0, the derivative in the second argument; the page's ∂h/∂y\partial h/\partial y∂h/∂y is a slip.
  • Pinned hypotheses. The goal requires f>0f > 0f>0 (an advertiser with fa=0f_a = 0fa​=0 contributes 0/00/00/0 in the paper and 000 in Lean). Claim 4 and the reduction require β>0\beta > 0β>0, because s/βs/\betas/β is 000 in Lean at β=0\beta = 0β=0 and R(1,0,1)≈0.607R(1,0,1) \approx 0.607R(1,0,1)≈0.607; in the paper β=0\beta = 0β=0 forces s=0s = 0s=0, a case the goal covers directly. The hypotheses xj≤yj≤1x_j \le y_j \le 1xj​≤yj​≤1 are the paper's ma1,a≤sa1≤fa1≤1m_{a_1,a} \le s_{a_1} \le f_{a_1} \le 1ma1​,a​≤sa1​​≤fa1​​≤1.
  • Claim 4 is corrected. As printed it is false: at n=100n = 100n=100, (f,β,s)=(1,0.55886,ln⁡2−0.01)(f,\beta,s) = (1, 0.55886, \ln 2 - 0.01)(f,β,s)=(1,0.55886,ln2−0.01) meets the printed constraints and gives R≈0.70521R \approx 0.70521R≈0.70521. The goal fails at n=100n = 100n=100 as well (about 0.705430.705430.70543). Both are stated in the limit f−s≤1−ln⁡2f - s \le 1 - \ln 2f−s≤1−ln2, the regime in which the paper claims Theorem 3 ("nnn is large enough so that a factor of 1+O(1/n)1 + O(1/n)1+O(1/n) is negligible", p. 6). The constant 0.7060.7060.706 is unchanged.
  • Out of scope. Theorem 3 itself, LP (4), the list construction of §5.3, Claim 2 and the bound on pap_apa​ are not posed. They rest on "≈\approx≈" replacements of binomial sums and on an asymptotic independence whose proof "is omitted in the paper", so they have no exact finite-nnn statement.
  • No trivializing reading. The goal's hypotheses are met, for example, by k=1k = 1k=1, f=1f = 1f=1, x1=0.7x_1 = 0.7x1​=0.7, y1=1y_1 = 1y1​=1, and the conclusion is not vacuous there. Its hypotheses do not exclude the minimizer, and the division by fff is guarded.

A complete development needs the derivative calculus of hhh on [0,y][0,y][0,y], including the diagonal, and certified interval bounds for e−xe^{-x}e−x and ln⁡2\ln 2ln2. The latter is reusable well beyond this mission. Proofs of Claim 3 or Claim 4 alone are welcome contributions.

Selected references

  • P. Jaillet and X. Lu, Online Stochastic Matching: New Algorithms with Better Bounds, Mathematics of Operations Research, 2014; authors' accepted manuscript, rev. June 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2013.0621
  • V. H. Manshadi, S. Oveis Gharan and A. Saberi, Online Stochastic Matching: Online Actions Based on Offline Statistics, Mathematics of Operations Research 37(4):559–573, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1120.0551
  • J. Feldman, A. Mehta, V. Mirrokni and S. Muthukrishnan, Online Stochastic Matching: Beating 1 − 1/e, FOCS 2009, pp. 117–126. https://arxiv.org/abs/0905.4100
  • R. M. Karp, U. V. Vazirani and V. V. Vazirani, An Optimal Algorithm for On-line Bipartite Matching, STOC 1990, pp. 352–358. https://doi.org/10.1145/100216.100262
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