Motivation
A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler is often assembled from simpler parts. A practitioner who has several proposal mechanisms Q1,Q2,… for a Metropolis–Hastings sampler can combine them in two ways. Either each Qi drives its own Metropolis–Hastings kernel Pi and the sampler picks kernel Pi with probability βi at each step, or the mixture Q=∑iβiQi is used as a single proposal inside one Metropolis–Hastings kernel. Both samplers leave the target π invariant, so the choice is about efficiency.
Section 4 of Tierney (1998) settles the comparison: when both samplers use the maximal acceptance probability, the second never does worse in terms of asymptotic variances of sample-path averages. The statement that carries this is Proposition 5, an ordering of kernels in Peskun's off-diagonal order; the variance comparison then follows from Theorem 4 of the same paper, the general-state-space extension of Peskun (1973).
Timeline. Peskun (1973) introduced off-diagonal domination for finite state spaces and showed that the Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability is maximal in that order. A version of Proposition 5 for discrete chains appears in the appendix of Tierney (1991) and in the rejoinder of Besag, Green, Higdon and Mengersen (1995). Tierney (1998) states and proves it for general state spaces, using the measure-theoretic description of Metropolis–Hastings kernels from §2 of the same paper.
Setting
Let (E,E) be a measurable space and π a probability measure on it, the target. A proposal kernel Q(x,dy) is a Markov kernel on E. Given a measurable acceptance probability α:E×E→[0,1], the Metropolis–Hastings kernel is
P(x,dy)=Q(x,dy)α(x,y)+δx(dy)∫(1−α(x,u))Q(x,du),
where δx is the point mass at x (mhKernel Q α).
Put μ(dx,dy)=π(dx)Q(x,dy) and μT(dx,dy)=μ(dy,dx). With ν=μ+μT and h=dμ/dν (canonDensity), let
R={(x,y):h(x,y)>0, h(y,x)>0},r(x,y)=h(x,y)/h(y,x) on R,r=1 on Rc
(canonR, canonRatio). The set R is symmetric, μ and μT are mutually absolutely continuous on R and mutually singular off it (Proposition 1 of the paper). The Metropolis–Hastings acceptance probability is
αMH(x,y)=min{1,r(y,x)} if (x,y)∈R,αMH(x,y)=0 otherwise
(alphaMH π Q), and the kernel with α=αMH is the maximal Metropolis–Hastings kernel for Q (maxMHKernel π Q).
For kernels P1,P2 on E, P1 dominates P2 off the diagonal, P1⪰P2 (OffDiagDominates π P₁ P₂), if for π-almost every x, P1(x,A∖{x})≥P2(x,A∖{x}) for all A∈E. For a countable family of kernels Ki and weights βi≥0, the mixture ∑iβiKi is the kernel x↦∑iβiKi(x,⋅) (mixKernel β K).
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 5
Let Qi be a finite or countable family of proposal kernels and βi≥0 with ∑iβi=1. Let Pi be the maximal Metropolis–Hastings kernel for Qi and P the maximal Metropolis–Hastings kernel for Q=∑iβiQi. Then
P⪰i∑βiPi.
Both sides use maximal kernels: P uses αMH of the mixture proposal, each Pi its own αMH(i), and the same weights βi form both mixtures.
Milestones
- The construction in the proof of Proposition 1 (p. 2) yields a set R and ratio r with the properties of Proposition 1 for μ=π⊗Q.
- αMH satisfies conditions (i) and (ii) of Theorem 2 (p. 3): αMH=0 μ-a.e. on Rc, and αMH(x,y)r(x,y)=αMH(y,x) μ-a.e. on R.
- The maximal kernel satisfies detailed balance, π(dx)P(x,dy)=π(dy)P(y,dx).
- For any symmetric σ-finite ν dominating μ, with h=dμ/dν:
π(dx)Q(x,dy)αMH(x,y)=min{h(y,x),h(x,y)}ν(dx,dy).
- As measures on E×E:
π(dx)Q(x,dy)αMH(x,y)≥i∑βiπ(dx)Qi(x,dy)αMH(i)(x,y).
A companion item states the maximality of αMH (§3, p. 7): every measurable acceptance probability α whose kernel is reversible satisfies α≤αMH μ-a.e., so the maximal kernel dominates every reversible Metropolis–Hastings kernel with the same proposal.
Significance
The result. Proposition 5, combined with Theorem 4 of the paper (off-diagonal domination orders asymptotic variances of reversible kernels), shows that for every function f with finite variance the asymptotic variance of n1∑kf(Xk) under the mixture-proposal sampler is at most that under the mixture of samplers. Per-iteration cost can be higher for the mixture proposal, since αMH then needs the densities of all components; Proposition 5 isolates the statistical side of that trade-off. The maximality companion states the fact behind the name "maximal kernel": αMH is the largest acceptance probability that keeps a Metropolis–Hastings kernel reversible.
Formalizing it. The paper's proof is a computation of about six lines with Radon–Nikodym densities. A formal version must make explicit what the computation leaves implicit: that αMH, defined from one dominating measure, has the same density form for every symmetric dominating measure; that the measure inequality on E×E passes to the kernel-level statement with one null set for all A; and that the mixture proposal and the mixture of kernels are handled as countable sums of kernels. As of September 2026 neither Mathlib nor this platform has a machine-checked version of Proposition 5, of the maximality of αMH, or of reversibility of the Metropolis–Hastings kernel on a general state space; only finite-state Metropolis chains have been formalized on the platform.
Difficulty
The obvious argument works pointwise with densities: write every kernel as a density against a common reference measure and compare min{⋅,⋅} of sums with sums of minima. On a general state space there is no common reference measure given in advance, and αMH is only defined up to μ-null sets, through a Radon–Nikodym derivative with respect to μ+μT, a measure that differs for Q and for each Qi. The step that needs care is relating these different versions: the densities hi of the μi against a common symmetric ν, the density of μ=∑iβiμi, and the transpose densities h(y,x), which are densities of μT only because ν is symmetric.
The second difficulty is the passage from measures to kernels. The inequality between measures on E×E gives, for each fixed A, the kernel inequality for π-almost every x, with a null set that depends on A. The order ⪰ requires one null set for all A, and the diagonal must be removed, which needs the diagonal to be measurable.
Formalization scope
The formalization is in Lean 4 with Mathlib, in the namespace TierneyMH.Mixture. The state space is a type E with a σ-algebra; π is a probability measure; proposal kernels are Markov kernels Kernel E E. Acceptance probabilities and densities take values in [0,∞] (ℝ≥0∞); a general α is assumed measurable with α≤1. μ is π ⊗ₘ Q, μT its image under Prod.swap, detailed balance is Kernel.IsReversible. Mixtures are indexed by a countable type ("a sequence", which includes finite families), with weights in ℝ≥0 and HasSum β 1.
Added hypotheses, both labelled in the statements: singletons are measurable (implicit in the paper's A∖{x} and δx), on the goal and the maximality companion; and, on the goal only, the σ-algebra of E is countably generated. The second is an addition to the paper: it is what makes the exceptional null set in ⪰ uniform over A in the passage from the measure inequality to the kernels. It is not assumed in the measure-level milestones.
αMH is one fixed version, built from Mathlib's rnDeriv exactly as in the proof of Proposition 1 (with ν=μ+μT, not an arbitrary dominating measure), and all statements are insensitive to the version. The ratio r is set to 1 on the null subset of R where h is infinite, so that 0<r<∞ and r(x,y)=1/r(y,x) hold everywhere, as Proposition 1 asks.
Trivializations ruled out: αMH is the indicator of R times min{1,r(y,x)}, never an arbitrary acceptance function or a single α shared by all components; ⪰ compares A∖{x}, not A (on A the rejection masses differ and the comparison is false); and the conclusion is about the Metropolis–Hastings kernels themselves, not about the measure identity alone. All hypotheses are satisfiable, for instance on E = Bool with π uniform, two proposals Q1=π and Q2=δx and weights (1/2,1/2).
Needed infrastructure, reusable for other Metropolis–Hastings results: Radon–Nikodym calculus for product measures and their transposes, countable sums of kernels, and a monotone-class argument over a countable generating family. The Metropolis–Hastings kernel, R, r and off-diagonal domination are defined identically in the companion missions I (detailed balance, Theorem 2) and II (Peskun ordering, Theorem 4) of this series. Proofs of milestones in any order, and proofs of the goal from the milestones, are welcome.
Selected references
- L. Tierney, A Note on Metropolis–Hastings Kernels for General State Spaces, The Annals of Applied Probability 8(1), 1998, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoap/1027961031
- P. H. Peskun, Optimum Monte Carlo sampling using Markov chains, Biometrika 60(3), 1973, 607–612. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/60.3.607
- J. Besag, P. Green, D. Higdon, K. Mengersen, Bayesian computation and stochastic systems (with discussion), Statistical Science 10(1), 1995, 3–66. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177010123
- W. K. Hastings, Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications, Biometrika 57(1), 1970, 97–109. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/57.1.97
- N. Metropolis, A. W. Rosenbluth, M. N. Rosenbluth, A. H. Teller, E. Teller, Equations of state calculations by fast computing machines, J. Chemical Physics 21, 1953, 1087–1091. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1699114