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Campaigns (experimental)

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.1308255793978239Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
9 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.960614Formalized record
4 provers on it7 of 7 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 7.101862832357Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
17 provers on it8 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 21Formalized record→≤ 16Open frontier
5 provers on it12 of 13 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 27Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
38 provers on it13 of 15 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

All missions

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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases: Rationing Is Optimal When the Valuation Bound Reaches U_c, Low-Price-Only OtherwiseResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of seasonal goods sell at a full price first and mark down later. Customers who know this can wait for the markdown, and a firm that always has stock left for the markdown teaches them to wait. One remedy is to stock less than the low-price market would absorb, so that a customer who waits risks not getting the good at all. Liu and van Ryzin (Management Science 54(6), 2008) model this capacity rationing as a two-period game between a monopolist who chooses a stocking quantity and risk-averse customers who choose when to buy, and they characterize exactly when rationing is worth its cost in lost sales. The paper belongs to the revenue-management literature on strategic customers, where the firm's decision must anticipate the customers' best response to it.

Setting

A firm announces a price p1p_1p1​ for period 1 and a lower price p2<p1p_2<p_1p2​<p1​ for period 2 and buys CCC units at unit cost α<p2\alpha<p_2α<p2​ before sales start; there is no replenishment. A market of N>0N>0N>0 customers, each wanting one unit, has valuations vvv drawn independently from a distribution FFF; from §3 on, FFF is uniform on [0,Uˉ][0,\bar U][0,Uˉ].

Period-2 requests are filled at random with probability qqq, the fill rate, which customers anticipate correctly. Every customer has the same utility uuu: strictly increasing, concave, twice differentiable, with u(0)=0u(0)=0u(0)=0; from §3 on, u(x)=xγu(x)=x^\gammau(x)=xγ with 0<γ<10<\gamma<10<γ<1 (smaller γ\gammaγ means more risk aversion). A customer with valuation vvv buys in period 1 exactly when

v≥p1andu(v−p1)≥q u(v−p2).v\ge p_1\quad\text{and}\quad u(v-p_1)\ge q\,u(v-p_2).v≥p1​andu(v−p1​)≥qu(v−p2​).

The threshold v(q)v(q)v(q) separates early buyers from waiters.

Under the §3 assumptions, a cutoff v∈[p1,Uˉ]v\in[p_1,\bar U]v∈[p1​,Uˉ] is induced by the fill rate q(v)=((v−p1)/(v−p2))γq(v)=((v-p_1)/(v-p_2))^\gammaq(v)=((v−p1​)/(v−p2​))γ and the stocking quantity C(v)=NUˉ(Uˉ−v+(v−p2)q(v))C(v)=\frac{N}{\bar U}(\bar U-v+(v-p_2)q(v))C(v)=UˉN​(Uˉ−v+(v−p2​)q(v)). The firm's profit from a segmented market is

Π(v)=NUˉ((p1−α)(Uˉ−v)+(p2−α)(v−p2)(v−p1v−p2)γ),(6)\Pi(v)=\frac{N}{\bar U}\left((p_1-\alpha)(\bar U-v)+(p_2-\alpha)(v-p_2)\left(\frac{v-p_1}{v-p_2}\right)^\gamma\right),\tag{6}Π(v)=UˉN​((p1​−α)(Uˉ−v)+(p2​−α)(v−p2​)(v−p2​v−p1​​)γ),(6)

and the profit from serving everybody at the low price is ΠNS=(p2−α)NUˉ(Uˉ−p2)\Pi^{NS}=(p_2-\alpha)\frac{N}{\bar U}(\bar U-p_2)ΠNS=(p2​−α)UˉN​(Uˉ−p2​). The firm's optimal profit is the larger of Π0=max⁡p1≤v≤UˉΠ(v)\Pi^0=\max_{p_1\le v\le\bar U}\Pi(v)Π0=maxp1​≤v≤Uˉ​Π(v) and ΠNS\Pi^{NS}ΠNS. The first-order condition of (6) is

(v−p1v−p2)γ(1+γ(p1−p2)v−p1)−p1−αp2−α=0,(7)\left(\frac{v-p_1}{v-p_2}\right)^\gamma\left(1+\frac{\gamma(p_1-p_2)}{v-p_1}\right)-\frac{p_1-\alpha}{p_2-\alpha}=0,\tag{7}(v−p2​v−p1​​)γ(1+v−p1​γ(p1​−p2​)​)−p2​−αp1​−α​=0,(7)

with root v0>p1v^0>p_1v0>p1​, and the critical valuation bound is

Uc=(p2+γ(p1−α))v0−p2(p1+γ(p2−α))v0−p1+γ(p1−p2).(8)U_c=\frac{(p_2+\gamma(p_1-\alpha))v^0-p_2(p_1+\gamma(p_2-\alpha))}{v^0-p_1+\gamma(p_1-p_2)}.\tag{8}Uc​=v0−p1​+γ(p1​−p2​)(p2​+γ(p1​−α))v0−p2​(p1​+γ(p2​−α))​.(8)

In Lean these objects are IsCustomerUtility, buysEarly, cutoff (module LiuVanRyzin.Model) and fillRate, capacity, segProfit, lowPriceProfit, focLHS, criticalU (module LiuVanRyzin.PowerModel).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3 (p. 1122)

If Uˉ≥Uc\bar U\ge U_cUˉ≥Uc​, rationing is optimal: v0∈[p1,Uˉ]v^0\in[p_1,\bar U]v0∈[p1​,Uˉ], v0v^0v0 maximizes Π\PiΠ on [p1,Uˉ][p_1,\bar U][p1​,Uˉ], and Π(v0)≥ΠNS\Pi(v^0)\ge\Pi^{NS}Π(v0)≥ΠNS. If Uˉ<Uc\bar U<U_cUˉ<Uc​, serving the whole market at the low price is optimal:

Π(v)≤ΠNSfor all v∈[p1,Uˉ].\Pi(v)\le\Pi^{NS}\qquad\text{for all }v\in[p_1,\bar U].Π(v)≤ΠNSfor all v∈[p1​,Uˉ].

The goal fixes no constants; it is the paper's dichotomy, stated with its own (7) and (8).

Milestones, in attack order

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 1120): for every q∈[0,1)q\in[0,1)q∈[0,1) the threshold v(q)≥p1v(q)\ge p_1v(q)≥p1​ exists and is unique, for a general utility.
  2. Proposition 2 (p. 1120): v(q)v(q)v(q) is strictly increasing in qqq, and convex if u′′′≥0u'''\ge 0u′′′≥0.
  3. Proposition 5 (p. 1123): C(v)C(v)C(v) and q(v)q(v)q(v) are strictly increasing on [p1,Uˉ][p_1,\bar U][p1​,Uˉ], so choosing CCC is the same as choosing vvv or qqq.
  4. §3.1, root of (7) (p. 1122): the left side of (7) strictly decreases on v>p1v>p_1v>p1​ and changes sign, so v0v^0v0 exists and is unique.
  5. Lemma 1 (p. 1122): Π\PiΠ is strictly concave on v≥p1v\ge p_1v≥p1​; its maximizer on [p1,Uˉ][p_1,\bar U][p1​,Uˉ] is v0v^0v0 if v0≤Uˉv^0\le\bar Uv0≤Uˉ, and Uˉ\bar UUˉ otherwise.
  6. §3.1, bounds (p. 1122): UcU_cUc​ decreases in v0v^0v0, p1<v0<p1+γ(p2−α)p_1<v^0<p_1+\gamma(p_2-\alpha)p1​<v0<p1​+γ(p2​−α), and p1+γ(p2−α)<Uc<p1+p2−αp_1+\gamma(p_2-\alpha)<U_c<p_1+p_2-\alphap1​+γ(p2​−α)<Uc​<p1​+p2​−α.

Significance

Proposition 3 answers the paper's central question: whether a firm facing strategic, risk-averse customers should deliberately under-stock. The answer depends on a single number, UcU_cUc​, which depends on prices, cost and risk aversion but not on the market size, and it is compared with the top of the valuation range. Corollary 1, the γ→1\gamma\to1γ→1 limits of Proposition 4, and the comparative statics of Propositions 6–8 on how the optimal fill rate moves with p1p_1p1​, p2p_2p2​ and γ\gammaγ are all read off from it. The bounds of milestone 6 turn it into sufficient conditions stated in the primitives alone.

The results are proved in the paper's e-companion (Online Appendix C). No machine-checked proof of any of them is known. Formalizing them gives a verified instance of a pattern that recurs throughout revenue management: a customer best response (a threshold), a reduction of the firm's problem to one scalar decision, a concavity argument, and a comparison of two regimes.

Difficulty

Most of the work is analysis of real powers with a moving base. Π\PiΠ contains (v−p2)((v−p1)/(v−p2))γ(v-p_2)\bigl((v-p_1)/(v-p_2)\bigr)^\gamma(v−p2​)((v−p1​)/(v−p2​))γ, whose derivative blows up at v=p1v=p_1v=p1​, so its concavity on the closed half-line [p1,∞)[p_1,\infty)[p1​,∞) is not a routine second-derivative computation at the endpoint. The regime comparison in Proposition 3 is not implied by Lemma 1: Lemma 1 locates the segmented optimum, but whether it beats ΠNS\Pi^{NS}ΠNS depends on Uˉ\bar UUˉ, which enters Π\PiΠ both through the prefactor N/UˉN/\bar UN/Uˉ and through Uˉ−v\bar U-vUˉ−v. The equivalence of that comparison with Uˉ≥Uc\bar U\ge U_cUˉ≥Uc​ requires eliminating (v0−p1)/(v0−p2)(v^0-p_1)/(v^0-p_2)(v0−p1​)/(v0−p2​) with (7).

For Propositions 1–2 the utility is general: the threshold is defined by an inequality between u(v−p1)u(v-p_1)u(v−p1​) and q u(v−p2)q\,u(v-p_2)qu(v−p2​), and neither its monotonicity in qqq nor its convexity under u′′′≥0u'''\ge0u′′′≥0 follows from a closed form. Only for xγx^\gammaxγ is there one.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real numbers. The utility of Propositions 1–2 is a function u:R→Ru:\mathbb R\to\mathbb Ru:R→R that is strictly increasing, concave and continuous on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), twice differentiable on (0,∞)(0,\infty)(0,∞), with u(0)=0u(0)=0u(0)=0. The threshold v(q)v(q)v(q) is defined as the infimum of the set of early buyers, not assumed. Powers are Real.rpow; every power-model statement stays on v≥p1v\ge p_1v≥p1​, or on v>p1v>p_1v>p1​ where (v−p1)−1(v-p_1)^{-1}(v−p1​)−1 appears. Π\PiΠ is written in the closed form (6). The root v0v^0v0 is a binder constrained by v0>p1v^0>p_1v0>p1​ and (7), and milestone 4 shows such a root exists. "Increases" in Propositions 2 and 5 is read as strictly increasing.

Hypotheses the paper uses without stating them, added here:

  • 0≤p2<Uˉ0\le p_2<\bar U0≤p2​<Uˉ in the goal. The uniform law gives NFˉ(p2)=NUˉ(Uˉ−p2)N\bar F(p_2)=\frac N{\bar U}(\bar U-p_2)NFˉ(p2​)=UˉN​(Uˉ−p2​) only for p2∈[0,Uˉ]p_2\in[0,\bar U]p2​∈[0,Uˉ], and it makes Uˉ>0\bar U>0Uˉ>0.
  • p1≤Uˉp_1\le\bar Up1​≤Uˉ in the second part of Lemma 1, because (6) maximizes over the interval [p1,Uˉ][p_1,\bar U][p1​,Uˉ].
  • Continuity of uuu at 000 in Propositions 1–2. The paper's "twice differentiable" implies it for any utility differentiable at 000, and xγx^\gammaxγ satisfies it.
  • In Proposition 2, "nonnegative third derivative" is read as u∈C3(0,∞)u\in C^3(0,\infty)u∈C3(0,∞) with u′′′≥0u'''\ge0u′′′≥0 there.

The goal cannot be trivialized: v0v^0v0 is pinned to the root of (7), part 2 quantifies over every v∈[p1,Uˉ]v\in[p_1,\bar U]v∈[p1​,Uˉ], and the optimum is compared with ΠNS\Pi^{NS}ΠNS exactly as the paper defines optimality.

Contributions are welcome at every level. Useful ones include the real-power calculus lemmas behind milestones 3–6, a proof of Propositions 1–2 for general concave utilities, and reusable facts about thresholds defined by single-crossing inequalities.

Selected references

  • Q. Liu, G. van Ryzin, Strategic Capacity Rationing to Induce Early Purchases, Management Science 54(6):1115–1131, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0832
  • K. T. Talluri, G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Kluwer, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
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🏆Completed
Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Advance Demand Information, Price Discrimination, and Preorder Strategies: When Preorder Profit Increases with Demand CorrelationResearch Paper

Motivation

Firms that sell new products (consoles, books, films) often take preorders before release. A preorder serves two purposes at once. It lets the firm charge early adopters a different price from later buyers, a form of price discrimination, and the number of preorders is advance demand information: an early signal of how large regular-season demand will be. Li and Zhang (MSOM 15(1), 2013) ask whether better advance information always helps a seller who runs a preorder, when consumers are strategic and anticipate the seller's stocking decision. Their answer is no. The second-period stocking decision improves, but the preorder price can fall. Whether the net effect is positive depends on the low-type margin and the size of the early-adopter segment.

This mission formalizes that answer, §4 of the paper: the preorder profit as a function of the demand correlation ρ\rhoρ.

Setting

A seller sells a perishable product over two periods. High-type consumers, with valuation vHv_HvH​, arrive in the first period and may preorder at price p1p_1p1​. Low-type consumers, with valuation vL<vHv_L < v_HvL​<vH​, arrive in the second period, when the price is p2p_2p2​. A high type who waits values the product at δvH\delta v_HδvH​, where δ≤1\delta \le 1δ≤1 and δvH>vL\delta v_H > v_LδvH​>vL​. The unit cost is ccc, with 0<c<vL0 < c < v_L0<c<vL​. Unsold units have no salvage value and unmet demand carries no penalty. Write Δ=δvH−vL\Delta = \delta v_H - v_LΔ=δvH​−vL​.

The demands are jointly normal with correlation ρ∈[0,1)\rho \in [0,1)ρ∈[0,1). The high-type demand has mean μH\mu_HμH​, and XXX denotes its standardization, a standard normal variable. The low-type demand has mean μL\mu_LμL​, standard deviation σL\sigma_LσL​ and λL=μL/σL\lambda_L = \mu_L/\sigma_LλL​=μL​/σL​. Given X=xX = xX=x, the updated low-type demand X~L(x)\tilde X_L(x)X~L​(x) is normal with mean μ~L(x)=μL+ρσLx\tilde\mu_L(x) = \mu_L + \rho\sigma_L xμ~​L​(x)=μL​+ρσL​x and standard deviation σ~L=σL1−ρ2\tilde\sigma_L = \sigma_L\sqrt{1-\rho^2}σ~L​=σL​1−ρ2​. Φ\PhiΦ and ϕ\phiϕ are the standard normal distribution function and density, and zLz_LzL​ solves Φ(zL)=(vL−c)/vL\Phi(z_L) = (v_L - c)/v_LΦ(zL​)=(vL​−c)/vL​.

In the second period the seller charges p2=vLp_2 = v_Lp2​=vL​ and solves a newsvendor problem. It orders

Q(x)=μ~L(x)+zLσ~L(1)Q(x) = \tilde\mu_L(x) + z_L\tilde\sigma_L \qquad (1)Q(x)=μ~​L​(x)+zL​σ~L​(1)

and earns ΠL(x)=(vL−c)(μL+ρσLx)−vLϕ(zL)σL1−ρ2\Pi_L(x) = (v_L - c)(\mu_L + \rho\sigma_L x) - v_L\phi(z_L)\sigma_L\sqrt{1-\rho^2}ΠL​(x)=(vL​−c)(μL​+ρσL​x)−vL​ϕ(zL​)σL​1−ρ2​ (2). A waiting high type believes half of the remaining consumers will be served before her, so her belief of product availability is

ξ(ρ)=E[Pr⁡(X~L(X)2<Q(X))].(3)\xi(\rho) = \mathbb E\Big[\Pr\Big(\tfrac{\tilde X_L(X)}{2} < Q(X)\Big)\Big]. \qquad (3)ξ(ρ)=E[Pr(2X~L​(X)​<Q(X))].(3)

In the rational-expectations equilibrium every high type preorders at p1=vH−Δξp_1 = v_H - \Delta\xip1​=vH​−Δξ. The preorder profit is

Πp(ρ)=(vH−Δξ(ρ)−c)μH+ΠL(0).(4)\Pi^p(\rho) = (v_H - \Delta\xi(\rho) - c)\mu_H + \Pi_L(0). \qquad (4)Πp(ρ)=(vH​−Δξ(ρ)−c)μH​+ΠL​(0).(4)

The threshold is

μ~(ρ)=−vLϕ(zL)σL2ΔzL ϕ(2zL1−ρ2+λL).(6)\tilde\mu(\rho) = -\frac{v_L\phi(z_L)\sigma_L}{2\Delta z_L\,\phi\big(2z_L\sqrt{1-\rho^2} + \lambda_L\big)}. \qquad (6)μ~​(ρ)=−2ΔzL​ϕ(2zL​1−ρ2​+λL​)vL​ϕ(zL​)σL​​.(6)

Formalization targets

Goal: PROPOSITION 2

(i) c<vL<2c: Πp strictly increases on every interval where μH<μ~(ρ),and strictly decreases on every interval where μH≥μ~(ρ);(ii) vL≥2c: Πp strictly increases on [0,1).\begin{aligned} &\text{(i) } c < v_L < 2c:\ \Pi^p \text{ strictly increases on every interval where } \mu_H < \tilde\mu(\rho),\\ &\qquad\text{and strictly decreases on every interval where } \mu_H \ge \tilde\mu(\rho);\\ &\text{(ii) } v_L \ge 2c:\ \Pi^p \text{ strictly increases on } [0,1). \end{aligned}​(i) c<vL​<2c: Πp strictly increases on every interval where μH​<μ~​(ρ),and strictly decreases on every interval where μH​≥μ~​(ρ);(ii) vL​≥2c: Πp strictly increases on [0,1).​

Milestones

  1. (1)–(2): Q(x)Q(x)Q(x) is the unique maximizer of E[vLmin⁡(Q,X~L(x))−cQ]\mathbb E[v_L\min(Q,\tilde X_L(x)) - cQ]E[vL​min(Q,X~L​(x))−cQ], and its value is ΠL(x)\Pi_L(x)ΠL​(x).
  2. (3): ξ(ρ)=E[Φ((λL+ρX)/1−ρ2+2zL)]\xi(\rho) = \mathbb E\big[\Phi\big((\lambda_L + \rho X)/\sqrt{1-\rho^2} + 2z_L\big)\big]ξ(ρ)=E[Φ((λL​+ρX)/1−ρ2​+2zL​)].
  3. LEMMA 1(i): if c<vL<2cc < v_L < 2cc<vL​<2c, then zL<0z_L < 0zL​<0 and ξ\xiξ is strictly increasing in ρ\rhoρ.
  4. LEMMA 1(ii): if vL≥2cv_L \ge 2cvL​≥2c, then zL≥0z_L \ge 0zL​≥0 and ξ\xiξ is non-increasing in ρ\rhoρ, strictly so when vL>2cv_L > 2cvL​>2c.
  5. After (5): ddρΠL(0)=vLϕ(zL)σL ρ/1−ρ2>0\dfrac{d}{d\rho}\Pi_L(0) = v_L\phi(z_L)\sigma_L\,\rho/\sqrt{1-\rho^2} > 0dρd​ΠL​(0)=vL​ϕ(zL​)σL​ρ/1−ρ2​>0 for ρ∈(0,1)\rho \in (0,1)ρ∈(0,1).
  6. PROPOSITION 2(i), pointwise: for ρ∈(0,1)\rho \in (0,1)ρ∈(0,1), dΠp/dρ>0  ⟺  μH<μ~(ρ)d\Pi^p/d\rho > 0 \iff \mu_H < \tilde\mu(\rho)dΠp/dρ>0⟺μH​<μ~​(ρ) and dΠp/dρ<0  ⟺  μH>μ~(ρ)d\Pi^p/d\rho < 0 \iff \mu_H > \tilde\mu(\rho)dΠp/dρ<0⟺μH​>μ~​(ρ).
  7. LEMMA 2(i): if −λL/2<zL<0-\lambda_L/2 < z_L < 0−λL​/2<zL​<0, then μ~\tilde\muμ~​ is strictly increasing in ρ\rhoρ.
  8. LEMMA 2(ii): if zL≤−λL/2z_L \le -\lambda_L/2zL​≤−λL​/2, then μ~\tilde\muμ~​ is quasi-convex in ρ\rhoρ.

Significance

The proposition splits the value of advance demand information into two effects with opposite signs. Better information always raises the second-period profit (milestone 5). Its effect on the preorder price depends on the margin. When vL<2cv_L < 2cvL​<2c, the seller stocks below the conditional mean. A more precise forecast then raises the stock and the availability ξ\xiξ, and waiting becomes more attractive, which lowers the preorder price. The threshold μ~(ρ)\tilde\mu(\rho)μ~​(ρ) says which effect wins, and LEMMA 2 describes its shape. This is the basis for the paper's later comparisons of preorder, price-guarantee and no-preorder strategies.

The paper states these results and leaves the proofs to an online appendix. None of them has a machine-checked proof. A complete development would also give reusable facts about normal laws: the expectation E[Φ(a+bX)]\mathbb E[\Phi(a + bX)]E[Φ(a+bX)] for standard normal XXX, the normal newsvendor solution with its closed-form optimal profit, and derivatives of Gaussian integrals with respect to a correlation parameter.

Difficulty

The model is explicit, so the difficulty is not in modelling. It is in turning the two expectations into closed forms and differentiating them. The availability ξ\xiξ is an integral over XXX of a normal probability whose mean and variance both move with ρ\rhoρ. The expected newsvendor profit involves E[min⁡(Q,Y)]\mathbb E[\min(Q, Y)]E[min(Q,Y)] for a normal YYY. Neither closed form is in Mathlib, and neither is a derivative in ρ\rhoρ of a Gaussian integral. The obvious route, differentiating under the integral sign in (3), needs domination estimates that are uniform in ρ\rhoρ near each point, and these degenerate as ρ→1\rho \to 1ρ→1.

Signs are the second difficulty. zLz_LzL​ changes sign at vL=2cv_L = 2cvL​=2c, μ~\tilde\muμ~​ carries a leading minus and divides by zLz_LzL​, and the derivative of Πp\Pi^pΠp vanishes at ρ=0\rho = 0ρ=0 and wherever μ~(ρ)=μH\tilde\mu(\rho) = \mu_Hμ~​(ρ)=μH​. Strict monotonicity on an interval has to be recovered from a derivative that is positive except at finitely many points.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace PreorderADI.Correlation. A structure Params holds vH,vL,c,δ,μH,μL,σL,zLv_H, v_L, c, \delta, \mu_H, \mu_L, \sigma_L, z_LvH​,vL​,c,δ,μH​,μL​,σL​,zL​. The predicate Params.Standing records the model's assumptions: vH>vLv_H > v_LvH​>vL​, c<vLc < v_Lc<vL​, δ≤1\delta \le 1δ≤1 and δvH>vL\delta v_H > v_LδvH​>vL​, together with Φ(zL)=(vL−c)/vL\Phi(z_L) = (v_L-c)/v_LΦ(zL​)=(vL​−c)/vL​. σH\sigma_HσH​ is omitted because nothing in §4 uses it after standardization. Φ\PhiΦ is ProbabilityTheory.cdf (gaussianReal 0 1) and ϕ\phiϕ is gaussianPDFReal 0 1. The normal law with mean mmm and standard deviation sss is gaussianReal m (s^2).

The formalization commits to the following conventions and additions:

  • Added hypotheses. Four hypotheses are added to the page's assumptions:
    • c>0c > 0c>0, so that zLz_LzL​ exists;
    • σL>0\sigma_L > 0σL​>0, so that the conditional law is a genuine normal law;
    • μL>0\mu_L > 0μL​>0, so that λL>0\lambda_L > 0λL​>0, as LEMMA 2 presupposes;
    • μH>0\mu_H > 0μH​>0, which PROPOSITION 2(ii) needs.
  • zLz_LzL​. zLz_LzL​ is a parameter pinned down by Φ(zL)=(vL−c)/vL\Phi(z_L) = (v_L-c)/v_LΦ(zL​)=(vL​−c)/vL​, not an inverse function with junk values.
  • Range of ρ\rhoρ. ρ\rhoρ ranges over [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), the paper's "we will focus on ρ≥0\rho \ge 0ρ≥0" together with ρ<1\rho < 1ρ<1. Derivative statements use (0,1)(0,1)(0,1).
  • ξ\xiξ and Πp\Pi^pΠp. ξ\xiξ is defined as the first expression of (3), the expected probability, so that no closed form is assumed. Πp\Pi^pΠp is defined by (4). PROPOSITION 1, which derives (4) as the unique equilibrium profit, is not formalized: the paper defines the equilibrium only through conditions that already assume every high type preorders.
  • Monotonicity. "Increases in ρ\rhoρ when μH<μ~(ρ)\mu_H < \tilde\mu(\rho)μH​<μ~​(ρ)" is formalized as strict monotonicity on every order-connected I⊆[0,1)I \subseteq [0,1)I⊆[0,1) on which the condition holds. "Decreasing" in LEMMA 1(ii) is non-strict, since ξ\xiξ is constant when vL=2cv_L = 2cvL​=2c. Quasi-convexity is Mathlib's QuasiconvexOn.
  • The ε_v sentence is omitted. PROPOSITION 2(i) also claims that some εv>0\varepsilon_v > 0εv​>0 makes Πp\Pi^pΠp always decrease when vL<c+εvv_L < c + \varepsilon_vvL​<c+εv​. That claim is false in the paper's own model. As vL↓cv_L \downarrow cvL​↓c, μ~(ρ)→∞\tilde\mu(\rho) \to \inftyμ~​(ρ)→∞ for ρ\rhoρ below roughly 3/2\sqrt 3/23​/2, so Πp\Pi^pΠp increases there for every fixed μH\mu_HμH​. The paper's Figure 1 shows the same behaviour.
  • Out of scope. §5 rests on an approximation that treats normal demands as nonnegative, so it is excluded. §§6–7 depend on models given only in the online appendix and are excluded too.

A statement about the closed form Φ(λL+2zL1−ρ2)\Phi(\lambda_L + 2z_L\sqrt{1-\rho^2})Φ(λL​+2zL​1−ρ2​) in place of ξ\xiξ would make LEMMA 1 a one-line monotonicity fact. So would a definition of Πp\Pi^pΠp that bypasses (3). The definitions rule both out.

Welcome contributions include proofs of the milestones, general Mathlib-style lemmas on Gaussian expectations of Φ\PhiΦ and of min⁡(Q,Y)\min(Q, Y)min(Q,Y), and a formalization of PROPOSITION 1 from conditions (i)–(v).

Selected references

  • C. Li and F. Zhang, Advance Demand Information, Price Discrimination, and Preorder Strategies, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 15(1):57–71, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1120.0398
  • G. P. Cachon and R. Swinney, Purchasing, Pricing, and Quick Response in the Presence of Strategic Consumers, Management Science 55(3):497–511, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0948
  • X. Su and F. Zhang, On the Value of Commitment and Availability Guarantees When Selling to Strategic Consumers, Management Science 55(5):713–726, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0967
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Information TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach 2: Closed Form of the Entropy-Constrained Worst-Case VaRResearch Paper

Motivation

Value-at-Risk (VaR) is the loss level that a portfolio exceeds with probability at most ε\varepsilonε. It is the standard risk measure of banking regulation, and its classical computation assumes Gaussian returns: for a Gaussian return vector with mean x^\hat xx^ and covariance Γ\GammaΓ it equals −Φ−1(ε)w⊤Γw−x^⊤w-\Phi^{-1}(\varepsilon)\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w} - \hat x^\top w−Φ−1(ε)w⊤Γw​−x^⊤w, where Φ\PhiΦ is the standard normal distribution function. Real returns are not exactly Gaussian, and a VaR computed from a misspecified distribution can badly understate risk.

El Ghaoui, Oks and Oustry (Oper. Res. 51(4), 2003) replace the single distribution by a class P\mathcal PP of distributions and define the worst-case VaR as the smallest loss level whose probability is at most ε\varepsilonε under every distribution of the class. Their first class, distributions with a given mean and covariance, leads to the Chebyshev-type bound of their Theorem 1, whose worst case is attained by discrete distributions. §4.2 of the paper asks instead for distributions that stay close to a Gaussian, measured by relative entropy (Kullback–Leibler divergence). Such balls are the basic uncertainty sets of distributionally robust optimization and of robust control in economics (Hansen and Sargent's multiplier and constraint preferences), and they give a smooth worst case. Theorem 9 computes the resulting worst-case VaR in closed form.

Setting

Returns are random vectors x∈Rnx \in \mathbb R^nx∈Rn and a portfolio is a vector w∈Rnw \in \mathbb R^nw∈Rn with w≠0w \neq 0w=0; its return is r(w,x)=w⊤xr(w,x) = w^\top xr(w,x)=w⊤x. For a level γ∈R\gamma \in \mathbb Rγ∈R the loss set is Sγ={x:γ≤−x⊤w}\mathcal S_\gamma = \{x : \gamma \le -x^\top w\}Sγ​={x:γ≤−x⊤w} (Eq. 13 of the paper).

Given a class P\mathcal PP of probability distributions on Rn\mathbb R^nRn and ε∈(0,1)\varepsilon \in (0,1)ε∈(0,1), the worst-case Value-at-Risk (Eq. 4) is

VP(w)=min⁡{γ∈R:sup⁡P∈PP(Sγ)≤ε}.V_{\mathcal P}(w) = \min\Big\{\gamma \in \mathbb R : \sup_{P \in \mathcal P} P(\mathcal S_\gamma) \le \varepsilon\Big\}.VP​(w)=min{γ∈R:P∈Psup​P(Sγ​)≤ε}.

Fix a mean x^∈Rn\hat x \in \mathbb R^nx^∈Rn and a positive definite covariance Γ≻0\Gamma \succ 0Γ≻0, and let P0=N(x^,Γ)P_0 = \mathcal N(\hat x, \Gamma)P0​=N(x^,Γ) be the reference Gaussian. For d≥0d \ge 0d≥0 the relative-entropy class (Eq. 43) is

Pd={P probability on Rn:KL(P,P0)=∫log⁡dPdP0 dP≤d},\mathcal P_d = \Big\{P \text{ probability on } \mathbb R^n : \mathrm{KL}(P, P_0) = \int \log\frac{dP}{dP_0}\,dP \le d\Big\},Pd​={P probability on Rn:KL(P,P0​)=∫logdP0​dP​dP≤d},

with KL(P,P0)=+∞\mathrm{KL}(P,P_0) = +\inftyKL(P,P0​)=+∞ unless PPP is absolutely continuous with respect to P0P_0P0​.

The risk factor (Eq. 45) is

f(ε,d)=sup⁡λ>0eε/λ−d−1e1/λ−1,κ(ε,d)=−Φ−1(f(ε,d)),f(\varepsilon,d) = \sup_{\lambda>0}\frac{e^{\varepsilon/\lambda - d} - 1}{e^{1/\lambda} - 1}, \qquad \kappa(\varepsilon,d) = -\Phi^{-1}\big(f(\varepsilon,d)\big),f(ε,d)=λ>0sup​e1/λ−1eε/λ−d−1​,κ(ε,d)=−Φ−1(f(ε,d)),

and the Gaussian tail of the loss set is ϕ(γ)=P0(Sγ)=1−Φ((γ+w⊤x^)/w⊤Γw)\phi(\gamma) = P_0(\mathcal S_\gamma) = 1 - \Phi\big((\gamma + w^\top\hat x)/\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w}\big)ϕ(γ)=P0​(Sγ​)=1−Φ((γ+w⊤x^)/w⊤Γw​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 9 (p. 553)

For Γ≻0\Gamma \succ 0Γ≻0, w≠0w \neq 0w=0, d≥0d \ge 0d≥0 and 0<ε<10 < \varepsilon < 10<ε<1, the minimum in (4) over Pd\mathcal P_dPd​ exists and

VPd(w)=κ(ε,d)w⊤Γw−x^⊤w.(44)V_{\mathcal P_d}(w) = \kappa(\varepsilon,d)\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w} - \hat x^\top w. \tag{44}VPd​​(w)=κ(ε,d)w⊤Γw​−x^⊤w.(44)

Milestones

The milestones follow the proof of Theorem 9 on pp. 553–554, in attack order.

  1. Eq. (45). The two expressions of fff agree: sup⁡λ>0eε/λ−d−1e1/λ−1=sup⁡v>0e−d(v+1)ε−1v\sup_{\lambda>0}\frac{e^{\varepsilon/\lambda-d}-1}{e^{1/\lambda}-1} = \sup_{v>0}\frac{e^{-d}(v+1)^\varepsilon - 1}{v}supλ>0​e1/λ−1eε/λ−d−1​=supv>0​ve−d(v+1)ε−1​.
  2. Gaussian tail. P0(Sγ)=1−Φ((γ+w⊤x^)/w⊤Γw)P_0(\mathcal S_\gamma) = 1 - \Phi\big((\gamma + w^\top\hat x)/\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w}\big)P0​(Sγ​)=1−Φ((γ+w⊤x^)/w⊤Γw​).
  3. Eq. (47). For λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0, the Lagrangian L(Q)=Q(Sγ)+λ0(1−Q(Rn))+λ(d−KL-integral)L(Q) = Q(\mathcal S_\gamma) + \lambda_0(1 - Q(\mathbb R^n)) + \lambda(d - \mathrm{KL}\text{-integral})L(Q)=Q(Sγ​)+λ0​(1−Q(Rn))+λ(d−KL-integral) is maximised over finite measures Q≪P0Q \ll P_0Q≪P0​ by the exponentially tilted density dQ⋆/dP0=exp⁡((χS−λ0)/λ−1)dQ^\star/dP_0 = \exp((\chi_{\mathcal S} - \lambda_0)/\lambda - 1)dQ⋆/dP0​=exp((χS​−λ0​)/λ−1), with value
θ(λ0,λ)=λ0+λd+λe−λ0/λ−1((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1).\theta(\lambda_0,\lambda) = \lambda_0 + \lambda d + \lambda e^{-\lambda_0/\lambda - 1}\big((e^{1/\lambda}-1)\phi(\gamma) + 1\big).θ(λ0​,λ)=λ0​+λd+λe−λ0​/λ−1((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1).
  1. Eq. (48). min⁡λ0∈Rθ(λ0,λ)=λd+λlog⁡((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1)\min_{\lambda_0\in\mathbb R}\theta(\lambda_0,\lambda) = \lambda d + \lambda\log\big((e^{1/\lambda}-1)\phi(\gamma)+1\big)minλ0​∈R​θ(λ0​,λ)=λd+λlog((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1).
  2. Duality. sup⁡P∈PdP(Sγ)=inf⁡λ>0(λd+λlog⁡((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1))\sup_{P\in\mathcal P_d} P(\mathcal S_\gamma) = \inf_{\lambda>0}\big(\lambda d + \lambda\log((e^{1/\lambda}-1)\phi(\gamma)+1)\big)supP∈Pd​​P(Sγ​)=infλ>0​(λd+λlog((e1/λ−1)ϕ(γ)+1)).
  3. Inversion. For d>0d > 0d>0: some λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0 makes the dual value at most ε\varepsilonε if and only if γ≥κ(ε,d)w⊤Γw−w⊤x^\gamma \ge \kappa(\varepsilon,d)\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w} - w^\top\hat xγ≥κ(ε,d)w⊤Γw​−w⊤x^.
  4. Remark after Theorem 9. f(ε,0)=εf(\varepsilon, 0) = \varepsilonf(ε,0)=ε, so κ(ε,0)=−Φ−1(ε)\kappa(\varepsilon,0) = -\Phi^{-1}(\varepsilon)κ(ε,0)=−Φ−1(ε). The risk factor κ(ε,d)\kappa(\varepsilon, d)κ(ε,d) is strictly increasing in d≥0d \ge 0d≥0.

Significance

Theorem 9 says that an entropy ball around a Gaussian leaves the form of the Gaussian VaR unchanged: only the risk factor moves, from −Φ−1(ε)-\Phi^{-1}(\varepsilon)−Φ−1(ε) to κ(ε,d)\kappa(\varepsilon,d)κ(ε,d), a scalar computed by a one-dimensional maximisation. The worst-case VaR therefore stays a convex function of www whenever κ≥0\kappa \ge 0κ≥0, and minimising it over a polytope of portfolios is a second-order cone program (problem (3) of the paper). The number f(ε,d)f(\varepsilon,d)f(ε,d) is the largest ppp with KL(Bernoulli(ε) ∥ Bernoulli(p))≤d\mathrm{KL}(\mathrm{Bernoulli}(\varepsilon)\,\|\,\mathrm{Bernoulli}(p)) \le dKL(Bernoulli(ε)∥Bernoulli(p))≤d, which ties the result to the binary-divergence bounds used throughout information theory.

The theorem was proved in 2003. The worst-case-probability step (milestone 5) is an instance of the Donsker–Varadhan / Gibbs variational duality for relative-entropy balls, which the paper imports from the literature (Smith 1995). No machine-checked proof of Theorem 9 or of this duality on Rn\mathbb R^nRn is known. A formalization would give a verified closed form for a relative-entropy distributionally robust chance constraint, and the duality and tilting lemmas would serve any mission on KL-ball robust optimization.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is Lagrangian duality for the infinite-dimensional problem sup⁡{P(Sγ):KL(P,P0)≤d}\sup\{P(\mathcal S_\gamma) : \mathrm{KL}(P,P_0) \le d\}sup{P(Sγ​):KL(P,P0​)≤d}. Weak duality and the pointwise maximisation that produces the tilted density are elementary. The difficulty is the step the paper cites rather than proves: that the duality gap is zero, and that the supremum over distributions equals the infimum of the dual over λ>0\lambda > 0λ>0. The feasible set is a set of measures, the objective is an indicator, and the constraint is a divergence that is +∞+\infty+∞ off a set of absolutely continuous measures, so a finite-dimensional Slater argument does not apply as stated.

The second difficulty is at the boundary of the parameters. At d=0d = 0d=0 the supremum defining f(ε,0)f(\varepsilon,0)f(ε,0) is approached only as λ→∞\lambda \to \inftyλ→∞, so the final inversion step behaves differently from d>0d > 0d>0. At ε=1\varepsilon = 1ε=1 the theorem is false, since every level γ\gammaγ is feasible and (4) has no minimum.

Formalization scope

Returns live in EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n). P0P_0P0​ is Mathlib's multivariateGaussian xhat Γ with Γ.PosDef, and KL\mathrm{KL}KL is InformationTheory.klDiv, which is ∞\infty∞ unless P≪P0P \ll P_0P≪P0​ with integrable log-likelihood ratio and equals ∫log⁡dPdP0 dP\int\log\frac{dP}{dP_0}\,dP∫logdP0​dP​dP otherwise for probability measures. The class Pd\mathcal P_dPd​ requires IsProbabilityMeasure P. Φ\PhiΦ is cdf (gaussianReal 0 1), and Φ−1(p)\Phi^{-1}(p)Φ−1(p) is defined as inf⁡{t:p≤Φ(t)}\inf\{t : p \le \Phi(t)\}inf{t:p≤Φ(t)}, which inverts Φ\PhiΦ on (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). The quadratic form w⊤Γww^\top\Gamma ww⊤Γw is a double sum, and ∥Γ1/2w∥2\|\Gamma^{1/2}w\|_2∥Γ1/2w∥2​ is written w⊤Γw\sqrt{w^\top\Gamma w}w⊤Γw​.

Conventions the Lean statements commit to:

  • "min" in (4) is IsLeast of the feasible set {γ:P(Sγ)≤ε ∀P∈Pd}\{\gamma : P(\mathcal S_\gamma) \le \varepsilon \ \forall P \in \mathcal P_d\}{γ:P(Sγ​)≤ε ∀P∈Pd​}. "sup⁡PP(Sγ)≤ε\sup_{P}P(\mathcal S_\gamma) \le \varepsilonsupP​P(Sγ​)≤ε" is written "for every PPP", with probabilities compared in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞].
  • The paper prints ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon \in (0,1]ε∈(0,1]. The mission assumes 0<ε<10 < \varepsilon < 10<ε<1, because the goal is false at ε=1\varepsilon = 1ε=1.
  • w≠0w \neq 0w=0 is the paper's assumption that the admissible set of portfolios excludes 000.
  • f(ε,d)f(\varepsilon,d)f(ε,d) is a Lean sSup of a set that is nonempty and bounded above by 111 for ε≤1\varepsilon \le 1ε≤1, d≥0d \ge 0d≥0.
  • The duality of milestone 5 is stated as the existence of one real number that is both the least upper bound of the worst-case probabilities and the greatest lower bound of the dual values, not as an equality of Lean's sSup and sInf.
  • Eq. (48) is stated as an attained minimum (IsLeast), which the calculus gives.
  • Milestone 3 works with finite measures Q≪P0Q \ll P_0Q≪P0​ with integrable log-likelihood ratio in place of the paper's densities ppp. It uses the complement of Sγ\mathcal S_\gammaSγ​ where the paper writes {γ≥−x⊤w}\{\gamma \ge -x^\top w\}{γ≥−x⊤w}, which differs by a P0P_0P0​-null hyperplane.
  • Milestone 6 assumes d>0d > 0d>0; the goal keeps d≥0d \ge 0d≥0.

Restricting Pd\mathcal P_dPd​ to {P0}\{P_0\}{P0​}, dropping IsProbabilityMeasure, or taking an arbitrary reference measure would trivialize or change the theorem. The class is the full KL ball around the nondegenerate Gaussian.

Infrastructure a complete development needs: the pushforward of a multivariate Gaussian under a linear functional (a one-dimensional Gaussian), the Gibbs variational principle for relative entropy, the strong duality for KL balls, and properties of Φ\PhiΦ and its quantile (continuity, strict monotonicity, symmetry Φ(−t)=1−Φ(t)\Phi(-t) = 1 - \Phi(t)Φ(−t)=1−Φ(t)). The Gaussian-quantile and KL-ball duality lemmas are reusable beyond this mission. Contributions of any of these as separate lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. El Ghaoui, M. Oks, F. Oustry, Worst-Case Value-at-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach, Operations Research 51(4):543–556, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.4.543.16101
  • J. E. Smith, Generalized Chebychev Inequalities: Theory and Applications in Decision Analysis, Operations Research 43(5):807–825, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.43.5.807
  • M. D. Donsker, S. R. S. Varadhan, Asymptotic evaluation of certain Markov process expectations for large time, I, Communications on Pure and Applied Mathematics 28(1):1–47, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1002/cpa.3160280102
  • L. P. Hansen, T. J. Sargent, Robust Control and Model Uncertainty, American Economic Review 91(2):60–66, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.2.60
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Convex OptimizationFunctional AnalysisOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Strong Convergence of a Proximal-Type Algorithm in a Banach Space: The Algorithm Converges Strongly to the Generalized Projection of x0 onto the Zeros of a Maximal Monotone OperatorResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization and variational analysis reduce to finding a zero of a maximal monotone operator TTT: minimizers of a proper convex lower semicontinuous function are the zeros of its subdifferential, and saddle points and solutions of variational inequalities are zeros of associated monotone operators. The classical tool is Rockafellar's proximal point algorithm (Rockafellar 1976), which in a Hilbert space converges weakly but, as Güler showed (Güler 1991), not strongly in general.

Solodov and Svaiter (Math. Program. 87, 2000) modified the method in a Hilbert space HHH: after each proximal step they project the starting point x0x_0x0​ onto the intersection of two half-spaces, and they proved that the resulting sequence converges strongly to the metric projection of x0x_0x0​ onto T−10T^{-1}0T−10. Kamimura and Takahashi (SIAM J. Optim. 13, 2003) extended this result to Banach spaces such as LpL^pLp, 1<p<∞1<p<\infty1<p<∞, replacing the identity by the duality mapping and the metric projection by a generalized projection defined through the duality mapping. This mission formalizes that extension.

Setting

Let EEE be a real Banach space with dual E∗E^*E∗, and write ⟨x,f⟩\langle x,f\rangle⟨x,f⟩ for the value of f∈E∗f\in E^*f∈E∗ at x∈Ex\in Ex∈E.

  • The duality mapping is Jx={v∈E∗:⟨x,v⟩=∥x∥2=∥v∥2}Jx=\{v\in E^*:\langle x,v\rangle=\|x\|^2=\|v\|^2\}Jx={v∈E∗:⟨x,v⟩=∥x∥2=∥v∥2}. When EEE is smooth (the limit lim⁡t→0(∥x+ty∥−∥x∥)/t\lim_{t\to0}(\|x+ty\|-\|x\|)/tlimt→0​(∥x+ty∥−∥x∥)/t exists for all unit x,yx,yx,y), JJJ is single valued. EEE is uniformly smooth if this limit is attained uniformly over unit x,yx,yx,y, and uniformly convex if ∥xn−yn∥→0\|x_n-y_n\|\to0∥xn​−yn​∥→0 whenever ∥xn∥=∥yn∥=1\|x_n\|=\|y_n\|=1∥xn​∥=∥yn​∥=1 and ∥(xn+yn)/2∥→1\|(x_n+y_n)/2\|\to1∥(xn​+yn​)/2∥→1.
  • An operator T:E→2E∗T:E\to2^{E^*}T:E→2E∗ is monotone if ⟨x1−x2,y1−y2⟩≥0\langle x_1-x_2,y_1-y_2\rangle\ge0⟨x1​−x2​,y1​−y2​⟩≥0 for yi∈Txiy_i\in Tx_iyi​∈Txi​, and maximal monotone if no other monotone operator has a strictly larger graph. T−10={x:0∈Tx}T^{-1}0=\{x:0\in Tx\}T−10={x:0∈Tx}.
  • For smooth EEE, φ(x,y)=∥x∥2−2⟨x,Jy⟩+∥y∥2\varphi(x,y)=\|x\|^2-2\langle x,Jy\rangle+\|y\|^2φ(x,y)=∥x∥2−2⟨x,Jy⟩+∥y∥2. The generalized projection QCxQ_CxQC​x of xxx onto a nonempty closed convex set CCC is the unique minimizer of φ(⋅,x)\varphi(\cdot,x)φ(⋅,x) over CCC (it exists and is unique in reflexive, strictly convex, smooth spaces).
  • The algorithm (3.1): from x0∈Ex_0\in Ex0​∈E and positive reals rnr_nrn​,
0=vn+1rn(Jyn−Jxn), vn∈Tyn,Hn={z:⟨z−yn,vn⟩≤0},Wn={z:⟨z−xn,Jx0−Jxn⟩≤0},xn+1=QHn∩Wnx0.0=v_n+\tfrac1{r_n}(Jy_n-Jx_n),\ v_n\in Ty_n,\quad H_n=\{z:\langle z-y_n,v_n\rangle\le0\},\quad W_n=\{z:\langle z-x_n,Jx_0-Jx_n\rangle\le0\},\quad x_{n+1}=Q_{H_n\cap W_n}x_0 .0=vn​+rn​1​(Jyn​−Jxn​), vn​∈Tyn​,Hn​={z:⟨z−yn​,vn​⟩≤0},Wn​={z:⟨z−xn​,Jx0​−Jxn​⟩≤0},xn+1​=QHn​∩Wn​​x0​.

In Lean, JJJ is J : E → StrongDual ℝ E with ∀ x, J x ∈ dualityMap x, φ\varphiφ is phi J, "z=QCxz=Q_Cxz=QC​x" is IsGenProj J C x z, and a run of (3.1) is IsHybridRun T J r x y v with starting point x 0.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

If EEE is uniformly convex and uniformly smooth, TTT is maximal monotone, T−10≠∅T^{-1}0\neq\emptysetT−10=∅, rn>0r_n>0rn​>0 and lim inf⁡nrn>0\liminf_n r_n>0liminfn​rn​>0, then every sequence generated by (3.1) satisfies

xn ⟶ QT−10 x0in norm.x_n\ \longrightarrow\ Q_{T^{-1}0}\,x_0\quad\text{in norm}.xn​ ⟶ QT−10​x0​in norm.

Milestones

In the order of the paper: the single-valuedness of JJJ on smooth spaces and its uniform continuity on bounded sets for uniformly smooth spaces (§2, properties 2 and 4); Xu's characterization of uniform convexity (Proposition 1); φ(yn,zn)→0\varphi(y_n,z_n)\to0φ(yn​,zn​)→0 with one bounded sequence implies yn−zn→0y_n-z_n\to0yn​−zn​→0 (Proposition 2); existence and uniqueness of QCxQ_CxQC​x (Proposition 3); its variational characterization ⟨z−x0,Jx0−Jx⟩≥0\langle z-x_0,Jx_0-Jx\rangle\ge0⟨z−x0​,Jx0​−Jx⟩≥0 (Proposition 4); the inequality φ(y,QCx)+φ(QCx,x)≤φ(y,x)\varphi(y,Q_Cx)+\varphi(Q_Cx,x)\le\varphi(y,x)φ(y,QC​x)+φ(QC​x,x)≤φ(y,x) (Proposition 5); Rockafellar's surjectivity theorem R(J+rT)=E∗R(J+rT)=E^*R(J+rT)=E∗ (Theorem 6); well-definedness of (3.1) (Proposition 7); T−10⊆Hn∩WnT^{-1}0\subseteq H_n\cap W_nT−10⊆Hn​∩Wn​ (Remark 1); and the monotonicity step

φ(xn+1,xn)+φ(xn,x0)≤φ(xn+1,x0).(3.2)\varphi(x_{n+1},x_n)+\varphi(x_n,x_0)\le\varphi(x_{n+1},x_0).\tag{3.2}φ(xn+1​,xn​)+φ(xn​,x0​)≤φ(xn+1​,x0​).(3.2)

Significance

The theorem gives a strongly convergent method for finding zeros of maximal monotone operators in a class of Banach spaces that includes LpL^pLp and ℓp\ell^pℓp for 1<p<∞1<p<\infty1<p<∞, and it identifies the limit: it is not an arbitrary zero but the generalized projection of the starting point. Applied to T=∂fT=\partial fT=∂f it yields a strongly convergent minimization method for proper convex lower semicontinuous functions (§4 of the paper). The generalized projection QCQ_CQC​, the function φ\varphiφ and the hybrid (CQ-type) projection scheme became standard tools in the later Banach-space fixed-point and splitting literature.

The result is proved in the paper; the mission's contribution is a machine-checked proof. As far as the platform catalog and Mathlib show, none of its ingredients is formalized: Mathlib has uniformly convex and strictly convex spaces and the double dual, but no duality mapping, no notion of smoothness, no monotone operators and no generalized projection.

Difficulty

The obvious route, copying the Hilbert-space proof of Solodov and Svaiter, fails at every place where that proof uses the inner product: the projection onto Hn∩WnH_n\cap W_nHn​∩Wn​ is no longer characterized by orthogonality, ∥x−y∥2\|x-y\|^2∥x−y∥2 is not a Bregman-type distance, and weak convergence of xnix_{n_i}xni​​ together with ∥xni∥→∥w∥\|x_{n_i}\|\to\|w\|∥xni​​∥→∥w∥ no longer yields strong convergence for free. The paper replaces these steps with properties of φ\varphiφ and of JJJ, which in turn rest on the geometry of EEE: uniform convexity (through Proposition 1) and uniform smoothness (through the uniform continuity of JJJ). In Lean, these geometric facts, reflexivity of uniformly convex spaces (Milman–Pettis) and Rockafellar's surjectivity theorem are all absent and have to be built.

Formalization scope

  • EEE is a real Banach space (NormedAddCommGroup, NormedSpace ℝ, CompleteSpace). The dual is StrongDual ℝ E with the operator norm; ⟨x,f⟩\langle x,f\rangle⟨x,f⟩ is f x. Sequences are indexed by N\mathbb NN from 000.
  • Uniform convexity is Mathlib's UniformConvexSpace (ε–δ form, equivalent to the sequential definition); strict convexity is StrictConvexSpace ℝ E; reflexivity is surjectivity of NormedSpace.inclusionInDoubleDual. Smoothness and uniform smoothness are defined from the limit (2.1) over real t≠0t\neq0t=0; uniform smoothness uses one δ\deltaδ for all unit x,yx,yx,y.
  • Maximality quantifies over all monotone operators whose graph contains that of TTT.
  • The single-valued JJJ is a function constrained by ∀ x, J x ∈ dualityMap x in every statement that uses it; on a smooth space this determines JJJ (a milestone).
  • QCQ_CQC​ and the algorithm are relations, not functions; the goal is stated for every run of (3.1) and asserts the existence of a generalized projection zzz of x0x_0x0​ onto T−10T^{-1}0T−10 with xn→zx_n\to zxn​→z. lim inf⁡rn>0\liminf r_n>0liminfrn​>0 is "some c>0c>0c>0 bounds rnr_nrn​ below eventually", and rn>0r_n>0rn​>0 is a separate hypothesis.
  • The goal assumes neither reflexivity, strict convexity nor smoothness (they follow from the uniform hypotheses), nor that T−10T^{-1}0T−10 is closed or convex (that follows from maximality).
  • Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: JJJ must be the duality mapping, runs of (3.1) exist (Proposition 7), and the limit must be identified as QT−10x0Q_{T^{-1}0}x_0QT−10​x0​, not merely shown to exist.

Reusable infrastructure: the duality mapping and its properties, smooth and uniformly smooth spaces, Milman–Pettis, monotone operators and Rockafellar's surjectivity theorem, and the generalized projection. Contributions to any of these are welcome independently of the goal.

Selected references

  • S. Kamimura and W. Takahashi, Strong convergence of a proximal-type algorithm in a Banach space, SIAM J. Optim. 13(3):938–945, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1137/S105262340139611X
  • M. V. Solodov and B. F. Svaiter, Forcing strong convergence of proximal point iterations in a Hilbert space, Math. Program. 87:189–202, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1007/s101070050002
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Monotone operators and the proximal point algorithm, SIAM J. Control Optim. 14(5):877–898, 1976. https://doi.org/10.1137/0314056
  • R. T. Rockafellar, On the maximality of sums of nonlinear monotone operators, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 149:75–88, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9947-1970-0282272-5
  • O. Güler, On the convergence of the proximal point algorithm for convex minimization, SIAM J. Control Optim. 29(2):403–419, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1137/0329022
  • H.-K. Xu, Inequalities in Banach spaces with applications, Nonlinear Anal. 16(12):1127–1138, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/0362-546X(91)90200-K
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Robust Solutions to Uncertain Semidefinite Programs III: Quadratic Growth and Uniqueness of the Robust SDP SolutionResearch Paper

Motivation

A semidefinite program (SDP) minimizes a linear objective cTxc^TxcTx subject to a linear matrix inequality F(x)=F0+∑ixiFi⪰0F(x) = F_0 + \sum_i x_i F_i \succeq 0F(x)=F0​+∑i​xi​Fi​⪰0. When the data FiF_iFi​ are uncertain, El Ghaoui, Oustry and Lebret (SIAM J. Optim. 9(1), 1998) proposed to optimize against the worst case over a norm-bounded family of perturbations: the robust SDP. Their Theorem 3.1 shows that, for unstructured ("full") perturbations, the robust SDP is itself an SDP in the enlarged variable (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ). Section 4 of the paper then asks what robustification does to the solution. Nominal SDPs are often ill-posed: the optimal set can be a whole face, and optimal points can jump under small data changes. Section 4 shows that, under explicit hypotheses, the robust problem has a unique solution with quadratic growth, which is the sense in which the paper describes robustness as a regularization of SDPs. This mission formalizes that result, Theorem 4.2.

Setting

Fix natural numbers m,n,p,qm, n, p, qm,n,p,q, matrices F0,…,Fm∈Rn×nF_0, \dots, F_m \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times n}F0​,…,Fm​∈Rn×n (symmetric), R0,…,Rm∈Rq×nR_0, \dots, R_m \in \mathbb{R}^{q\times n}R0​,…,Rm​∈Rq×n, L∈Rn×pL \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times p}L∈Rn×p, and an objective vector c∈Rmc \in \mathbb{R}^mc∈Rm, c≠0c \neq 0c=0. Write F(x)=F0+∑i=1mxiFiF(x) = F_0 + \sum_{i=1}^m x_iF_iF(x)=F0​+∑i=1m​xi​Fi​ and R(x)=R0+∑i=1mxiRiR(x) = R_0 + \sum_{i=1}^m x_iR_iR(x)=R0​+∑i=1m​xi​Ri​.

With full perturbations, uncertainty level ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1 and D=0D = 0D=0 (the standing choices of §4), the robust SDP is the SDP

minimize cTxsubject toF(x,τ)=[F(x)−τLLTR(x)TR(x)τI]⪰0(15)\text{minimize } c^Tx \quad\text{subject to}\quad \mathcal{F}(x,\tau) = \begin{bmatrix} F(x) - \tau LL^T & R(x)^T \\ R(x) & \tau I\end{bmatrix} \succeq 0 \tag{15}minimize cTxsubject toF(x,τ)=[F(x)−τLLTR(x)​R(x)TτI​]⪰0(15)

in the variables y=(x,τ)∈Rm×Ry = (x,\tau) \in \mathbb{R}^m \times \mathbb{R}y=(x,τ)∈Rm×R. A point is feasible if F(x,τ)⪰0\mathcal{F}(x,\tau) \succeq 0F(x,τ)⪰0 (symmetric positive semidefinite) and optimal if it is feasible and minimizes cTxc^TxcTx over all feasible (x′,τ′)(x',\tau')(x′,τ′). The solution is the pair (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ).

The paper's hypotheses (§4.1):

  • H1 (Slater): F(x,τ)≻0\mathcal{F}(x,\tau) \succ 0F(x,τ)≻0 for some (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ).
  • H2 (inf-compactness): every sublevel set {(x,τ) feasible:cTx≤M}\{(x,\tau)\ \text{feasible} : c^Tx \le M\}{(x,τ) feasible:cTx≤M} is bounded.
  • H3(a): the nullspace of the pencil λR0+∑ixiRi\lambda R_0 + \sum_i x_iR_iλR0​+∑i​xi​Ri​ is one and the same proper subspace N⊊RnN \subsetneq \mathbb{R}^nN⊊Rn for every (λ,x)≠(0,0)(\lambda,x) \neq (0,0)(λ,x)=(0,0).
  • H3(b): for every xxx the stacked matrix [LTR(x)]\begin{bmatrix} L^T \\ R(x)\end{bmatrix}[LTR(x)​] has full column rank.

For τ>0\tau > 0τ>0 put G(x,τ)=F(x)−τLLT−1τR(x)TR(x)G(x,\tau) = F(x) - \tau LL^T - \frac{1}{\tau}R(x)^TR(x)G(x,τ)=F(x)−τLLT−τ1​R(x)TR(x), the Schur complement of the block τI\tau IτI in F(x,τ)\mathcal{F}(x,\tau)F(x,τ).

The quadratic growth condition (QGC) holds at an optimal point y⋆=(x⋆,τ⋆)y^\star = (x^\star,\tau^\star)y⋆=(x⋆,τ⋆) if there are α,ε>0\alpha, \varepsilon > 0α,ε>0 with

cTx ≥ cTx⋆+α ∥y−y⋆∥2for every feasible y=(x,τ), ∥y−y⋆∥<ε.c^Tx \ \ge\ c^Tx^\star + \alpha\,\|y - y^\star\|^2 \qquad \text{for every feasible } y = (x,\tau),\ \|y - y^\star\| < \varepsilon .cTx ≥ cTx⋆+α∥y−y⋆∥2for every feasible y=(x,τ), ∥y−y⋆∥<ε.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.2 (p. 39)

Under c≠0c \neq 0c=0, symmetry of the FiF_iFi​, H1, H2, H3(a) and H3(b):

(∀ y⋆ optimal for (15): QGC holds at y⋆)and∃! y=(x,τ) optimal for (15).\bigl(\forall\, y^\star \text{ optimal for (15)}:\ \text{QGC holds at } y^\star\bigr)\quad\text{and}\quad \exists!\, y = (x,\tau) \text{ optimal for (15)} .(∀y⋆ optimal for (15): QGC holds at y⋆)and∃!y=(x,τ) optimal for (15).

Both halves are stated; uniqueness is of the pair (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ), and existence is part of the claim.

Milestones, in the order the paper's proof uses them

  1. §4.1 (p. 38): H3(a) implies R(x)≠0R(x) \neq 0R(x)=0 for every xxx.
  2. §4.2 (p. 39): under H3(a), every feasible τ\tauτ is positive; in particular τopt>0\tau_{\mathrm{opt}} > 0τopt​>0.
  3. §4.2, Eq. (16): for τ>0\tau > 0τ>0, F(x,τ)⪰0  ⟺  G(x,τ)⪰0\mathcal{F}(x,\tau) \succeq 0 \iff G(x,\tau) \succeq 0F(x,τ)⪰0⟺G(x,τ)⪰0.
  4. Appendix A (p. 49): at every optimal (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ) there is a dual matrix Z⪰0Z \succeq 0Z⪰0, Z≠0Z \neq 0Z=0, with Tr⁡ZG(x,τ)=0\operatorname{Tr} ZG(x,\tau) = 0TrZG(x,τ)=0, Tr⁡Z ∂G/∂xi=ci\operatorname{Tr} Z\,\partial G/\partial x_i = c_iTrZ∂G/∂xi​=ci​ and τ2Tr⁡LLTZ=Tr⁡R(x)TR(x)Z\tau^2\operatorname{Tr}LL^TZ = \operatorname{Tr}R(x)^TR(x)Zτ2TrLLTZ=TrR(x)TR(x)Z.
  5. Appendix A (p. 49): H3(b) rules out Tr⁡LLTZ=Tr⁡R(x)TR(x)Z=0\operatorname{Tr}LL^TZ = \operatorname{Tr}R(x)^TR(x)Z = 0TrLLTZ=TrR(x)TR(x)Z=0 for Z⪰0Z \succeq 0Z⪰0, Z≠0Z \neq 0Z=0, hence Tr⁡R(x)TR(x)Z>0\operatorname{Tr}R(x)^TR(x)Z > 0TrR(x)TR(x)Z>0.
  6. Appendix A (pp. 49–50): under H3(a), with τ>0\tau > 0τ>0, Z⪰0Z \succeq 0Z⪰0 and Tr⁡R(x)TR(x)Z>0\operatorname{Tr}R(x)^TR(x)Z > 0TrR(x)TR(x)Z>0, the Hessian of the Lagrangian cTx−Tr⁡Z G(x,τ)c^Tx - \operatorname{Tr} Z\,G(x,\tau)cTx−TrZG(x,τ) is positive definite.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4.2 turns the robust SDP into a well-posed problem: a unique solution with quadratic growth. Quadratic growth is the property from which the paper's Hölder-stability results (Theorem 4.3, Corollaries 4.1–4.2) follow through the perturbation theory of Bonnans, Cominetti and Shapiro, and it is what justifies using the robust SDP as a regularization of ill-conditioned SDPs (§5.4). The remark after the theorem notes a geometric reading: the growth holds for every objective, so the boundary of the robust feasible set contains no facets.

Formalizing it. The theorem has a published proof (Appendix A), which relies on a second-order sufficient condition for nonlinear SDPs cited from Bonnans, Cominetti and Shapiro. There is no machine-checked proof of it or of any second-order optimality result for SDPs that we know of. A formalization provides a complete account of the dual attainment, complementarity and second-order steps for this concrete problem class, and it checks the paper's computations; one of them, the intermediate display for the second derivative in Appendix A, has a factor error in its cross term that does not affect the conclusion.

Difficulty

The feasible set of (15) is a spectrahedron, and linear objectives over spectrahedra do not in general have unique minimizers, since optimal faces can be flat. Uniqueness therefore cannot come from convexity alone. It has to come from curvature of the boundary at the optimum, and that curvature is carried only by the nonlinear term 1τR(x)TR(x)\frac{1}{\tau}R(x)^TR(x)τ1​R(x)TR(x) of the Schur complement, which is degenerate along some directions. Positive definiteness of the Hessian must be recovered from the structural hypotheses H3(a) and H3(b), which interact with a dual matrix ZZZ that is known only to exist. The natural first attempt is to use τ>0\tau > 0τ>0 and the positive semidefiniteness of ZZZ directly. That attempt fails: the second derivative is Tr⁡Z RTR\operatorname{Tr} Z\,\mathcal{R}^T\mathcal{R}TrZRTR for a direction-dependent matrix R\mathcal{R}R, which vanishes on the kernel of ZZZ, so it is not positive without H3(a) relating the kernels of all members of the pencil. Dual attainment and complementarity for (15) also have to be established, and the local second-order bound then has to be converted into a statement about every nearby feasible point.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. Data are bundled in RobustSDP.Uniqueness.SDPData m n p q; decision points are pairs y : (Fin m → ℝ) × ℝ; the coefficient Fs i, i : Fin m, is the paper's Fi+1F_{i+1}Fi+1​. ⪰0\succeq 0⪰0 and ≻0\succ 0≻0 are Mathlib's Matrix.PosSemidef and Matrix.PosDef, which include symmetry, as the paper's notation does.
  • Conventions fixed. §4's standing choices D=0D = 0D=0 and ρ=1\rho = 1ρ=1 are built into (15). The standing assumptions c≠0c \neq 0c=0 and symmetric FiF_iFi​ (p. 33) are explicit hypotheses. H2 is read as bounded sublevel sets of the feasible set in (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ); the paper's wording ("any unbounded sequence of feasible points produces an unbounded sequence of objectives") is meant in this sense, as its claim that H1 and H2 give existence of optimal points shows. H3(b)'s full column rank is injectivity of ξ↦(LTξ,R(x)ξ)\xi \mapsto (L^T\xi, R(x)\xi)ξ↦(LTξ,R(x)ξ). The QGC uses the Euclidean norm on Rm+1\mathbb{R}^{m+1}Rm+1 in its local form, which is equivalent to the paper's o(∥y−yopt∥2)o(\|y - y_{\mathrm{opt}}\|^2)o(∥y−yopt​∥2) form. It is stated for (15) rather than for the paper's reformulation (16), with which (15) coincides near the optimum because τopt>0\tau_{\mathrm{opt}} > 0τopt​>0. The auxiliary constraint τ≥0.99 τopt\tau \ge 0.99\,\tau_{\mathrm{opt}}τ≥0.99τopt​ of (16) is not formalized. GGG uses Lean's τ⁻¹, which is 000 at τ=0\tau = 0τ=0, so every statement about GGG assumes τ>0\tau > 0τ>0 or τ≠0\tau \ne 0τ=0.
  • No trivializing reading. The goal cannot be satisfied by stating only uniqueness of xxx, by reading H2 as "the objective is bounded below", or by reading H3(a) as "R(x)≠0R(x) \neq 0R(x)=0". The statement quantifies over the pair (x,τ)(x,\tau)(x,τ), and both the quadratic growth and the existence and uniqueness halves are required. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable: for example m=1m = 1m=1, n=p=2n = p = 2n=p=2, q=4q = 4q=4, F(x)=diag(3+x,3−x)F(x) = \mathrm{diag}(3+x, 3-x)F(x)=diag(3+x,3−x), L=I2L = I_2L=I2​, R(x)=[1;x]⊗I2R(x) = [1; x]\otimes I_2R(x)=[1;x]⊗I2​ and c=1c = 1c=1.
  • Infrastructure. A complete development needs Schur complements for positive semidefinite block matrices (available in Mathlib), strong duality with dual attainment for inequality-form SDPs under Slater's condition (ConvexOptimization.sdp_strong_duality on the platform, in another Mathlib environment), existence of minimizers on closed bounded sets, second derivatives of matrix-valued maps, and a local second-order argument for convex problems. The duality and second-order parts can be reused beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, or alternative proofs that avoid the general Bonnans–Cominetti–Shapiro theory, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. El Ghaoui, F. Oustry and H. Lebret, Robust Solutions to Uncertain Semidefinite Programs, SIAM J. Optim. 9(1), 33–52, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623496305717
  • J. F. Bonnans, R. Cominetti and A. Shapiro, Sensitivity analysis of optimization problems under second order regular constraints, Math. Oper. Res. 23(4), 806–831, 1998 (the paper's reference [10]). https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.806
  • A. Shapiro, First and second order analysis of nonlinear semidefinite programs, Math. Programming Ser. B 77, 301–320, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02614439
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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Limits of Permutation Sequences I: Every Convergent Permutation Sequence Has a Limit Permutation, and Every Limit Permutation Is a LimitResearch Paper

Motivation

Large combinatorial structures are often best understood through their limits. For dense graphs, Lovász and Szegedy (2006) showed that every sequence of graphs whose subgraph densities converge has a limit object, a graphon, and that every graphon arises this way. Borgs, Chayes, Lovász, Sós and Vesztergombi (2008) related this convergence to the cut distance. These results turned questions of extremal combinatorics and property testing into analysis on a compact space.

Hoppen, Kohayakawa, Moreira, Ráth and Sampaio (arXiv:1103.5844; J. Combin. Theory Ser. B, 2013) carried this programme over to permutations. Their limit objects, called limit permutations here and now usually called permutons (as a probability measure on the square), underlie later work on quasirandom permutations, pattern densities, and property testing of permutations (Hoppen et al., 2011). This mission formalizes the paper's main result, Theorem 1.6: convergent permutation sequences have limits, and every limit is attained.

Timeline:

  • 2006. Lovász and Szegedy prove that graphons are exactly the limits of convergent dense graph sequences.
  • 2008. Borgs et al. characterize convergence by the cut distance.
  • 2011–2013. Hoppen, Kohayakawa, Moreira, Ráth and Sampaio prove the permutation analogue (this paper), together with uniqueness of the limit and a characterization by a rectangular distance.

Setting

For n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, SnS_nSn​ is the set of permutations of [n]={1,…,n}[n] = \{1,\dots,n\}[n]={1,…,n}, and ∣π∣=n|\pi| = n∣π∣=n for π∈Sn\pi \in S_nπ∈Sn​. For τ∈Sk\tau \in S_kτ∈Sk​ and π∈Sn\pi \in S_nπ∈Sn​, the number of occurrences Λ(τ,π)\Lambda(\tau,\pi)Λ(τ,π) counts the increasing kkk-tuples x1<⋯<xkx_1 < \dots < x_kx1​<⋯<xk​ in [n][n][n] with π(xi)<π(xj)  ⟺  τ(i)<τ(j)\pi(x_i) < \pi(x_j) \iff \tau(i) < \tau(j)π(xi​)<π(xj​)⟺τ(i)<τ(j). The subpermutation density is t(τ,π)=Λ(τ,π)/(nk)t(\tau,\pi) = \Lambda(\tau,\pi)/\binom nkt(τ,π)=Λ(τ,π)/(kn​) for k≤nk \le nk≤n and 000 for k>nk > nk>n. A permutation sequence (σn)(\sigma_n)(σn​) is convergent if t(τ,σn)t(\tau,\sigma_n)t(τ,σn​) converges for every fixed τ\tauτ.

A function F:[0,1]→[0,1]F : [0,1]\to[0,1]F:[0,1]→[0,1] is a cdf if it is non-decreasing and right-continuous with F(0)≥0F(0) \ge 0F(0)≥0 and F(1)=1F(1) = 1F(1)=1. A limit permutation is a Lebesgue measurable Z:[0,1]2→[0,1]Z : [0,1]^2 \to [0,1]Z:[0,1]2→[0,1] such that Z(x,⋅)Z(x,\cdot)Z(x,⋅) is a cdf for every xxx, and ∫01Z(x,y) dx=y\int_0^1 Z(x,y)\,dx = y∫01​Z(x,y)dx=y for every yyy. The set of limit permutations is Z\mathcal ZZ.

With ZZZ one associates a random point (X,Y)(X,Y)(X,Y): X∼U[0,1]X \sim U[0,1]X∼U[0,1], and given XXX, YYY has cdf Z(X,⋅)Z(X,\cdot)Z(X,⋅). Draw kkk independent copies (Xi,Yi)(X_i,Y_i)(Xi​,Yi​). The ZZZ-random permutation σ(k,Z)\sigma(k,Z)σ(k,Z) records the relative order of the YiY_iYi​ read in increasing order of the XiX_iXi​. The density of τ∈Sk\tau \in S_kτ∈Sk​ in ZZZ is t(τ,Z)=P(σ(k,Z)=τ)t(\tau,Z) = \mathbf P(\sigma(k,Z) = \tau)t(τ,Z)=P(σ(k,Z)=τ). A sequence with ∣σn∣→∞|\sigma_n| \to \infty∣σn​∣→∞ converges to ZZZ, written σn→Z\sigma_n \to Zσn​→Z, if t(τ,σn)→t(τ,Z)t(\tau,\sigma_n) \to t(\tau,Z)t(τ,σn​)→t(τ,Z) for every τ\tauτ.

For σ∈Sn\sigma \in S_nσ∈Sn​, the step limit permutation ZσZ_\sigmaZσ​ spreads the permutation matrix of σ\sigmaσ uniformly over its n×nn \times nn×n grid cells. The rectangular distance d□(Z1,Z2)d_\square(Z_1,Z_2)d□​(Z1​,Z2​) is the largest difference, over axis-parallel rectangles, between the probabilities the two associated random points assign to the rectangle.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.6

(i)(σn) convergent, ∣σn∣→∞ ⟹ ∃Z∈Z: σn→Z;\text{(i)}\quad (\sigma_n)\ \text{convergent},\ |\sigma_n|\to\infty \ \Longrightarrow\ \exists Z\in\mathcal Z:\ \sigma_n\to Z;(i)(σn​) convergent, ∣σn​∣→∞ ⟹ ∃Z∈Z: σn​→Z; (ii)∀Z∈Z  ∃(σn): σn→Z.\text{(ii)}\quad \forall Z\in\mathcal Z\ \ \exists (\sigma_n):\ \sigma_n\to Z.(ii)∀Z∈Z  ∃(σn​): σn​→Z.

The two parts together identify Z\mathcal ZZ with the set of limits of permutation sequences.

Milestones

In the order the proof uses them:

  1. Eq. (21): the joint distribution function of the random point associated with ZZZ is F(x,y)=∫0xZ(t,y) dtF(x,y) = \int_0^x Z(t,y)\,dtF(x,y)=∫0x​Z(t,y)dt.
  2. Lemma 2.2: every law on [0,1]2[0,1]^2[0,1]2 with uniform marginals has a limit permutation as its conditional cdf, unique up to a null set of xxx.
  3. Lemma 2.1: for uniform marginals, weak convergence is equivalent to uniform convergence of the joint distribution functions.
  4. Lemma 3.5: ∣t(τ,σ)−t(τ,Zσ)∣≤1n(k2)|t(\tau,\sigma) - t(\tau,Z_\sigma)| \le \frac1n\binom k2∣t(τ,σ)−t(τ,Zσ​)∣≤n1​(2k​).
  5. Eq. (49): for ∣σn∣→∞|\sigma_n| \to \infty∣σn​∣→∞, σn→Z  ⟺  Zσn→tZ\sigma_n \to Z \iff Z_{\sigma_n} \xrightarrow{t} Zσn​→Z⟺Zσn​​t​Z.
  6. Lemma 5.1: the densities t(τ,Z)t(\tau,Z)t(τ,Z) determine the law of the associated random point.
  7. Lemma 5.3: weak convergence, d□d_\squared□​-convergence and density convergence on Z\mathcal ZZ are equivalent.
  8. Lemma 4.2: for all large kkk and every ZZZ, P(d□(Z,σ(k,Z))≤16k−1/4)≥1−12e−k\mathbf P\big(d_\square(Z,\sigma(k,Z)) \le 16k^{-1/4}\big) \ge 1 - \tfrac12 e^{-\sqrt k}P(d□​(Z,σ(k,Z))≤16k−1/4)≥1−21​e−k​.
  9. Theorem 1.7 (corrected): if σn→Z1\sigma_n \to Z_1σn​→Z1​, then σn→Z2\sigma_n \to Z_2σn​→Z2​ exactly when Z1(x,⋅)=Z2(x,⋅)Z_1(x,\cdot) = Z_2(x,\cdot)Z1​(x,⋅)=Z2​(x,⋅) for almost every xxx.

Significance

Theorem 1.6 makes Z\mathcal ZZ, modulo null sets, the completion of the set of finite permutations under density convergence. Asymptotic statements about pattern densities, such as quasirandomness criteria, extremal pattern-density problems and the testability of permutation properties, can then be stated and proved on a compact space of measures rather than along sequences. Lemma 4.2 is the quantitative sampling statement behind testability, and Theorem 1.7 says that a limit, viewed as a measure on the square, is unique.

The results are proved in the paper and have been used for over a decade. To the best of current knowledge they are not formalized in any proof assistant. The mission produces a machine-checked account of the permuton correspondence: the definitions of subpermutation density, limit permutation and ZZZ-random permutation, and the equivalences between the three natural convergences on Z\mathcal ZZ. Alternative proofs are welcome, for instance of (ii) through Lemma 4.2 and the Borel–Cantelli lemma rather than the paper's strong law for U-statistics.

Difficulty

The obvious route to (i) is compactness: the laws of the random points attached to ZσnZ_{\sigma_n}Zσn​​ have a weakly convergent subsequence. The weak limit is only a measure, however. Turning it into a function ZZZ that is a cdf in yyy for every xxx, with exact uniform integrals for every yyy, requires a regular conditional distribution (Lemma 2.2). One then has to show that weak convergence carries the pattern densities along. That fails for general measures on the square, because the events defining σ(k,Z)=τ\sigma(k,Z)=\tauσ(k,Z)=τ have boundaries on which ties occur. Uniform marginals are what rule the ties out. The limit must also be independent of the subsequence, which needs the uniqueness statement Lemma 5.1. For (ii), the natural random sequence converges only almost surely, so an almost-sure limit theorem or a quantitative concentration bound is unavoidable.

Formalization scope

  • [0,1][0,1][0,1] is Mathlib's unitInterval with Lebesgue measure. A limit permutation is a curried real function Z : I → I → ℝ. Measurability is almost-everywhere measurability for the product measure, which is Lebesgue measurability. The cdf and integral conditions hold for every xxx and every yyy.
  • SnS_nSn​ is Equiv.Perm (Fin n) (0-based), and a permutation sequence is ℕ → Σ n, Equiv.Perm (Fin n). Patterns of every length, including the trivial length 000, are quantified over; the length-000 clause always holds.
  • The law of the associated random point is built by the inverse-cdf construction (x,u)↦(x,inf⁡{y:u≤Z(x,y)})(x,u) \mapsto (x, \inf\{y : u \le Z(x,y)\})(x,u)↦(x,inf{y:u≤Z(x,y)}) applied to Lebesgue measure on the square. The density t(τ,Z)t(\tau,Z)t(τ,Z) is the product measure of the event AτA_\tauAτ​ (strict orders, so ties are excluded).
  • ZσZ_\sigmaZσ​ is given in closed form; at x=0x = 0x=0 it uses the first row, a null-set choice that keeps every Zσ(x,⋅)Z_\sigma(x,\cdot)Zσ​(x,⋅) a cdf. d□d_\squared□​ is the real supremum over rectangles, and is bounded on Z\mathcal ZZ.
  • "kkk sufficiently large" in Lemma 4.2 is ∃k0 ∀k≥k0 ∀Z\exists k_0\,\forall k \ge k_0\,\forall Z∃k0​∀k≥k0​∀Z, with the paper's constants 161616, k−1/4k^{-1/4}k−1/4, 12e−k\tfrac12 e^{-\sqrt k}21​e−k​. The probability is written as a sum of t(τ,Z)t(\tau,Z)t(τ,Z) over the qualifying τ\tauτ.
  • Theorem 1.7 is false as literally printed (its "if" direction fails); the corrected form assumes σn→Z1\sigma_n \to Z_1σn​→Z1​.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: t(τ,Z)t(\tau,Z)t(τ,Z) is a genuine sampling probability under a probability measure whose joint distribution function is pinned down by Eq. (21), and σn→Z\sigma_n \to Zσn​→Z includes ∣σn∣→∞|\sigma_n| \to \infty∣σn​∣→∞.

Needed infrastructure includes Prokhorov compactness of probability measures on a compact space, the Portmanteau theorem, conditional cdfs (ProbabilityTheory.condCDF), Hoeffding's inequality and Borel–Cantelli, all largely in Mathlib. The permutation-density and permuton layer is reusable for quasirandomness and testing results. Mission II of this series, on the rectangular-distance characterization, uses the same model.

Selected references

  • C. Hoppen, Y. Kohayakawa, C. G. Moreira, B. Ráth, R. M. Sampaio, Limits of permutation sequences, arXiv:1103.5844v2, 2012; J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 103 (2013). https://arxiv.org/abs/1103.5844v2
  • L. Lovász, B. Szegedy, Limits of dense graph sequences, J. Combin. Theory Ser. B 96 (2006) 933–957. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jctb.2006.05.002
  • C. Borgs, J. T. Chayes, L. Lovász, V. T. Sós, K. Vesztergombi, Convergent sequences of dense graphs I: Subgraph frequencies, metric properties and testing, Adv. Math. 219 (2008) 1801–1851. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aim.2007.08.004
  • C. Hoppen, Y. Kohayakawa, C. G. Moreira, R. M. Sampaio, Testing permutation properties through subpermutations, Theoret. Comput. Sci. 412 (2011) 3555–3567. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcs.2010.10.041
  • P. Billingsley, Convergence of Probability Measures, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316962
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Integrating Replenishment Decisions with Advance Demand Information I: The Myopic Order-Up-To Level Is Optimal When Observed Demand Beyond the Protection Period Is LargeResearch Paper

Motivation

Many firms learn part of future demand before it has to be served: customers place orders days or weeks ahead of the date they need the goods, or commit to delivery dates in contracts. Advance demand information of this kind reduces the uncertainty the inventory manager has to protect against, and the question is how replenishment decisions should use it. Gallego and Özer (Management Science 47(10), 2001) model orders placed up to NNN periods ahead and a supply lead time LLL. They show that, with a fixed ordering cost, the classical (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) structure survives with parameters that depend on the observed future demand, and they identify when that dependence disappears.

The classical theory this builds on is the finite-horizon inventory model with a set-up cost. Scarf (1960) introduced KKK-convexity to prove that (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policies are optimal there. Veinott (1966) and Iglehart (1963) bounded the optimal policy parameters by myopic quantities. Gallego and Özer extend both results to a state that carries a vector of observed demands.

Setting

Periods are t=1,…,Tt = 1, \dots, Tt=1,…,T. In period ttt customers place orders Dt=(Dt,t,…,Dt,t+N)D_t = (D_{t,t}, \dots, D_{t,t+N})Dt​=(Dt,t​,…,Dt,t+N​) for periods t,…,t+Nt, \dots, t+Nt,…,t+N; DtD_tDt​ is a random vector with law μt\mu_tμt​ and nonnegative components. The lead time LLL and the information horizon NNN satisfy N>L+1N > L+1N>L+1; write M=N−L−1≥1M = N - L - 1 \ge 1M=N−L−1≥1. The state at the start of period ttt is a pair (xt,ot)(x_t, o_t)(xt​,ot​): the modified inventory position xt∈Rx_t \in \mathbb{R}xt​∈R, and the vector

ot=(ot,t+L+1,…,ot,t+N−1)∈RMo_t = (o_{t,t+L+1}, \dots, o_{t,t+N-1}) \in \mathbb{R}^Mot​=(ot,t+L+1​,…,ot,t+N−1​)∈RM

of demands already observed for the periods beyond the protection period t,…,t+Lt, \dots, t+Lt,…,t+L.

The manager raises xtx_txt​ to an order-up-to level y≥xty \ge x_ty≥xt​, paying a set-up cost Kt>0K_t > 0Kt​>0 if y>xty > x_ty>xt​. After DtD_tDt​ is observed, the state moves to

xt+1=y−∑s=tt+L+1Dt,s−ot,t+L+1,ot+1,s=ot,s+Dt,s  (s=t+L+2,…,t+N),x_{t+1} = y - \sum_{s=t}^{t+L+1} D_{t,s} - o_{t,t+L+1},\qquad o_{t+1,s} = o_{t,s} + D_{t,s}\ \ (s = t+L+2,\dots,t+N),xt+1​=y−s=t∑t+L+1​Dt,s​−ot,t+L+1​,ot+1,s​=ot,s​+Dt,s​  (s=t+L+2,…,t+N),

with ot,t+N=0o_{t,t+N} = 0ot,t+N​=0. With a convex single-period cost GtG_tGt​, discount factors αt>0\alpha_t > 0αt​>0 and δ(z)=1{z>0}\delta(z) = \mathbf 1\{z > 0\}δ(z)=1{z>0}, the optimal cost satisfies JT+1≡0J_{T+1} \equiv 0JT+1​≡0 and

Jt(x,o)=min⁡y≥x{Ktδ(y−x)+Vt(y,o)},Vt(y,o)=Gt(y)+αt+1 E Jt+1(xt+1,ot+1).J_t(x, o) = \min_{y \ge x}\{K_t\delta(y - x) + V_t(y, o)\},\qquad V_t(y, o) = G_t(y) + \alpha_{t+1}\,\mathbb E\,J_{t+1}(x_{t+1}, o_{t+1}).Jt​(x,o)=y≥xmin​{Kt​δ(y−x)+Vt​(y,o)},Vt​(y,o)=Gt​(y)+αt+1​EJt+1​(xt+1​,ot+1​).

Let Ht(x,o)=Kt+min⁡y≥xVt(y,o)−Vt(x,o)H_t(x, o) = K_t + \min_{y\ge x}V_t(y,o) - V_t(x,o)Ht​(x,o)=Kt​+miny≥x​Vt​(y,o)−Vt​(x,o). The order-up-to level St(o)S_t(o)St​(o) is the least minimizer of Vt(⋅,o)V_t(\cdot, o)Vt​(⋅,o), and the reorder point is st(o)=max⁡{x:Ht(x,o)≤0}s_t(o) = \max\{x : H_t(x,o) \le 0\}st​(o)=max{x:Ht​(x,o)≤0}.

A function ggg is (a,b)(a,b)(a,b)-convex, g∈C(a,b)g \in C(a,b)g∈C(a,b), if g(θx1+(1−θ)x2)≤θ(a+g(x1))+(1−θ)(b+g(x2))g(\theta x_1 + (1-\theta)x_2) \le \theta(a + g(x_1)) + (1-\theta)(b + g(x_2))g(θx1​+(1−θ)x2​)≤θ(a+g(x1​))+(1−θ)(b+g(x2​)) for all x1≤x2x_1 \le x_2x1​≤x2​ and θ∈[0,1]\theta \in [0,1]θ∈[0,1]; C(0,K)C(0,K)C(0,K) is Scarf's KKK-convexity. In the stationary problem Gt=GG_t = GGt​=G, Kt=KK_t = KKt​=K, αt=α\alpha_t = \alphaαt​=α and μt=ν\mu_t = \nuμt​=ν, and the myopic levels are

Sm=min⁡{y:G(y)≤G(x) ∀x},sm=max⁡{y≤Sm:G(y)≥K+G(Sm)},S‾=inf⁡{y>Sm:G(y)>G(Sm)+αK}.S^m = \min\{y : G(y) \le G(x)\ \forall x\},\quad s^m = \max\{y \le S^m : G(y) \ge K + G(S^m)\},\quad \overline S = \inf\{y > S^m : G(y) > G(S^m) + \alpha K\}.Sm=min{y:G(y)≤G(x) ∀x},sm=max{y≤Sm:G(y)≥K+G(Sm)},S=inf{y>Sm:G(y)>G(Sm)+αK}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 1350)

For the stationary problem, every 1≤t≤T1 \le t \le T1≤t≤T and every observed-demand vector ot≥0o_t \ge 0ot​≥0,

ot,t+L+1≥S‾−sm  ⟹  St(ot)=Sm.o_{t,t+L+1} \ge \overline S - s^m \implies S_t(o_t) = S^m.ot,t+L+1​≥S−sm⟹St​(ot​)=Sm.

Only the observed demand for the first period beyond the protection period is compared with the threshold; the other components of oto_tot​ are free.

Milestones

  • Lemma 1, Parts 1, 2, 4, 5 (p. 1349): inclusion, positive combinations, expectations, and g(max⁡(x,s))g(\max(x,s))g(max(x,s)) for (a,b)(a,b)(a,b)-convex functions.
  • Lemma 2 and Corollary 1 (p. 1350): for V∈C(0,K)V \in C(0,K)V∈C(0,K) with a minimizer SSS, HHH changes sign once from −-− to +++, and (for continuous VVV) J(x)=V(max⁡(s,x))J(x) = V(\max(s,x))J(x)=V(max(s,x)).
  • Theorem 1, Parts 1–3 (p. 1350): Vt(⋅,ot)∈C(0,Kt)V_t(\cdot, o_t) \in C(0, K_t)Vt​(⋅,ot​)∈C(0,Kt​) is coercive, a state-dependent (st(ot),St(ot))(s_t(o_t), S_t(o_t))(st​(ot​),St​(ot​)) policy is optimal, and Jt(⋅,ot)∈C(0,Kt)J_t(\cdot, o_t) \in C(0, K_t)Jt​(⋅,ot​)∈C(0,Kt​) with its limits at ±∞\pm\infty±∞.
  • Lemma 3 (p. 1351): Sm≤St(ot)≤S‾S^m \le S_t(o_t) \le \overline SSm≤St​(ot​)≤S and sm≤st(ot)s^m \le s_t(o_t)sm≤st​(ot​).

Significance

Theorem 1 says that advance demand information does not destroy the (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) structure: the optimal policy is still a reorder point and an order-up-to level, now functions of oto_tot​. Theorem 2 is a horizon result. Once enough demand is already booked for period t+L+1t+L+1t+L+1, the order-up-to level is the myopic one, computed from GGG alone, and the rest of the information vector can be ignored. The threshold S‾−sm\overline S - s^mS−sm grows with the set-up cost. In practice the manager then orders only to cover demand up to period t+Lt+Lt+L, knowing another order will be placed in period t+1t+1t+1, and the search for state-dependent policies is confined to states with little booked demand.

The results are proved in the paper, with some steps argued informally (the unit forward difference in Lemma 3, a minimum over an open set in the definition of S‾\overline SS). As far as the platform's catalog shows, no (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) optimality theorem of this form has a machine-checked proof: the platform has KKK-convexity lemmas for a single constant, not for (a,b)(a,b)(a,b)-convexity or a dynamic program with a vector state. A formal proof would check the infinite-state induction and the conditions under which the expectation in (9) is finite. The (a,b)(a,b)(a,b)-convexity layer and the one-period results (Lemma 2, Corollary 1) are reusable for any set-up cost model.

Difficulty

The obvious induction proves KKK-convexity of VtV_tVt​ and then applies Scarf's argument. The vector state makes each step conditional on facts the scalar case gets for free. The expectation in (9) mixes a random shift of xxx with a random update of ooo, so preserving KKK-convexity needs Lemma 1, Part 4 rather than the scalar version. Coercivity and continuity of Vt(⋅,o)V_t(\cdot, o)Vt​(⋅,o), and measurability and integrability of D↦Jt+1(xt+1,ot+1)D \mapsto J_{t+1}(x_{t+1}, o_{t+1})D↦Jt+1​(xt+1​,ot+1​), must be carried through the induction jointly in (x,o)(x, o)(x,o). They cannot be assumed.

For Theorem 2, VtV_tVt​ is not a function of GGG alone, and a comparison of St(ot)S_t(o_t)St​(ot​) with SmS^mSm has to control EJt+1\mathbb E J_{t+1}EJt+1​. That requires the lower bound sm≤st+1(ot+1)s^m \le s_{t+1}(o_{t+1})sm≤st+1​(ot+1​) at the next period, which holds only on the nonnegative state space.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated about the functional equation (8)–(9). The paper derives it in Appendix A from a control problem over history-dependent policies, citing Özer (2000); that reduction is out of scope. The demand vector is Fin (L + M + 2) → ℝ and ooo is Fin M → ℝ, with component jjj equal to ot,t+L+1+jo_{t,t+L+1+j}ot,t+L+1+j​. JJJ is defined by backward recursion, minima over y≥xy \ge xy≥x are infima over {y:x≤y}\{y : x \le y\}{y:x≤y}, and expectations are Bochner integrals. GtG_tGt​ is an abstract primitive, not built from holding and penalty costs.

The paper's hypotheses are GtG_tGt​ convex with Gt(y)→∞G_t(y) \to \inftyGt​(y)→∞ as ∣y∣→∞|y| \to \infty∣y∣→∞ (stated for G~t\widetilde G_tGt​, used for GtG_tGt​), Kt>0K_t > 0Kt​>0 (Section 4), and αt+1Kt+1≤Kt\alpha_{t+1}K_{t+1} \le K_tαt+1​Kt+1​≤Kt​. The formalization adds hypotheses the paper uses without stating:

  • positive discount factors;
  • demands nonnegative almost surely;
  • every demand component has a finite mean, and ∣Gt(y)∣≤at+bt∣y∣|G_t(y)| \le a_t + b_t|y|∣Gt​(y)∣≤at​+bt​∣y∣ (so the expectation in (9) is finite);
  • continuity of VVV in the abstract Corollary 1;
  • nonnegative observed demands oto_tot​ in Lemma 3 and Theorem 2, where the lower bound fails for negative ot,t+L+1o_{t,t+L+1}ot,t+L+1​.

All hypotheses are placed on the primitives; nothing is assumed about the derived VtV_tVt​ or JtJ_tJt​. A Solutions/verification instance (G(y)=∣y∣G(y) = |y|G(y)=∣y∣, K=1K = 1K=1, α=1/2\alpha = 1/2α=1/2, zero demand) shows these hypotheses can be met together.

The definition of S‾\overline SS is read as an infimum: the paper prints a minimum over an open set. St(ot)S_t(o_t)St​(ot​) and st(ot)s_t(o_t)st​(ot​) appear through IsLeast and IsGreatest, never as sInf/sSup values. A default value therefore cannot satisfy a conclusion, and vacuous readings (an empty minimizer set, an unbounded reorder set) are excluded. The infinite-horizon results (Lemma 4, Theorem 3, Corollary 2) and the zero set-up cost case are not part of this mission. Contributions are welcome at every level, and most of all a reusable library for (a,b)(a,b)(a,b)-convex functions.

Selected references

  • G. Gallego, Ö. Özer, Integrating Replenishment Decisions with Advance Demand Information, Management Science 47(10):1344–1360, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.10.1344.10261
  • H. Scarf, The Optimality of (S, s) Policies in the Dynamic Inventory Problem, in Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences, Stanford University Press, 1960.
  • A. F. Veinott, On the Optimality of (s,S) Inventory Policies: New Conditions and a New Proof, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics 14(5):1067–1083, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1137/0114086
  • D. L. Iglehart, Optimality of (s, S) Policies in the Infinite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Problem, Management Science 9(2):259–267, 1963. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.9.2.259
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Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium III: A Randomized Forecast Calibrated against Every OpponentResearch Paper

Motivation

A forecaster who announces "70% chance of rain" is calibrated if, among the days on which that number was announced, it rained on about 70% of them. Dawid (The well-calibrated Bayesian, JASA 1982) proposed calibration as the minimal requirement of an honest probability forecaster. Oakes (Self-calibrating priors do not exist, JASA 1985) showed that no deterministic forecasting rule can be calibrated against every sequence of outcomes: an adversary who knows the rule can always choose the outcome that contradicts the forecast.

Foster and Vohra (Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games Econ. Behav. 21 (1997) 40–55) use calibration as the bridge between learning and equilibrium in repeated games. Their Theorem 1 says that if each player best-responds to calibrated forecasts of the opponent, the empirical distribution of play converges to the set of correlated equilibria. That theorem is only useful if calibrated forecasts can actually be produced whatever the opponent does. Theorem 3 of the paper, credited to an unpublished 1991 manuscript of the same authors and proved in the paper's Appendix, says they can, provided the forecaster randomizes.

Timeline. Dawid (1982) defines calibration. Oakes (1985) rules out deterministic calibrated forecasting against arbitrary sequences. Foster and Vohra (1991 manuscript; 1997 paper, Theorem 3 and Appendix) give a randomized forecaster calibrated against any opponent, through a pairwise ("internal") no-regret property. The full argument appeared in Foster and Vohra, Asymptotic calibration, Biometrika 85 (1998). Hart and Mas-Colell (A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 2000) later made internal regret the standard route to correlated equilibrium.

Setting

Player 2 has n≥1n\ge 1n≥1 pure strategies j∈{0,…,n−1}j\in\{0,\dots,n-1\}j∈{0,…,n−1}. In every round, player 1 announces a forecast p∈Rnp\in\mathbb R^np∈Rn, a probability vector (pj≥0p_j\ge 0pj​≥0, ∑jpj=1\sum_j p_j = 1∑j​pj​=1), and player 2 plays a strategy jjj. The two moves are simultaneous: player 2 does not see the current forecast.

A history hhh of length ttt is the list of the ttt pairs (forecast, play), oldest first. For a forecast vector ppp and a strategy jjj:

  • N(p,t)N(p,t)N(p,t) is the number of rounds of hhh in which ppp was forecast;
  • ρ(p,j,t)\rho(p,j,t)ρ(p,j,t) is the fraction of those rounds in which player 2 played jjj (and 000 if N(p,t)=0N(p,t)=0N(p,t)=0);
  • the calibration score (Eq. (1), p. 49) is
Ct=∑p∑j∣ρ(p,j,t)−pj∣ N(p,t)t.C_t = \sum_p\sum_j \bigl|\rho(p,j,t) - p_j\bigr|\,\frac{N(p,t)}{t}.Ct​=p∑​j∑​​ρ(p,j,t)−pj​​tN(p,t)​.

A randomized forecaster FFF maps each history to a probability distribution on forecasts. A learning rule AAA of player 2 maps each history to a probability distribution on strategies. In round t+1t+1t+1 the forecast is drawn from F(h)F(h)F(h) and the play from A(h)A(h)A(h), independently given the history hhh of the first ttt rounds. This defines the law PF,A\mathbb P_{F,A}PF,A​ of the first ttt rounds (histLaw F A t).

For the Appendix: with kkk forecasts, losses LtiL_t^iLti​ and mixing weights wtiw_t^iwti​, the pairwise regret of replacing forecast iii by forecast jjj is

RTi→j=max⁡{0, ∑t=1Twti (Lti−Ltj)}.R_T^{i\to j} = \max\Bigl\{0,\ \sum_{t=1}^T w_t^i\,(L_t^i - L_t^j)\Bigr\}.RTi→j​=max{0, t=1∑T​wti​(Lti​−Ltj​)}.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 49)

There is a forecaster FFF, with probability-vector forecasts, such that for every learning rule AAA of player 2 and every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0,

lim⁡t→∞PF,A(Ct<ε)=1.\lim_{t\to\infty}\mathbb P_{F,A}\bigl(C_t<\varepsilon\bigr) = 1.t→∞lim​PF,A​(Ct​<ε)=1.

The forecaster is fixed before the opponent; no rate is claimed, and the rate may depend on AAA.

Milestones, in the order the Appendix uses them

  1. Flow conservation is solvable (p. 52). For every nonnegative k×kk\times kk×k matrix RRR, k≥1k\ge 1k≥1, there is a probability vector www with wi∑jRi→j=∑jwjRj→iw^i\sum_j R^{i\to j} = \sum_j w^j R^{j\to i}wi∑j​Ri→j=∑j​wjRj→i for all iii.
  2. Lemma 1 (No-Regret) (p. 52). With losses in [0,1][0,1][0,1] and weights solving flow conservation for the previous regrets,
RTi→j≤2kTfor all i,j,T.R_T^{i\to j}\le\sqrt{2kT}\quad\text{for all } i,j,T.RTi→j​≤2kT​for all i,j,T.
  1. Regrets sandwich L-2 calibration (p. 54). For a grid p1,…,pkp^1,\dots,p^kp1,…,pk that is ε\varepsilonε-dense in squared distance and losses Lti=∣Xt−pi∣2L_t^i = |X_t - p^i|^2Lti​=∣Xt​−pi∣2,
∑imax⁡jRTi→jT ≤ C2,w(T) ≤ ε+∑imax⁡jRTi→jT,\sum_i\max_j \frac{R_T^{i\to j}}{T}\ \le\ C_{2,w}(T)\ \le\ \varepsilon + \sum_i\max_j\frac{R_T^{i\to j}}{T},i∑​jmax​TRTi→j​​ ≤ C2,w​(T) ≤ ε+i∑​jmax​TRTi→j​​,

with C2,wC_{2,w}C2,w​ the fractional L-2 calibration score. 4. L-1 versus L-2 (p. 54). For each jjj, ∑p∣ρ(p,j,t)−pj∣ N(p,t)/t≤∑p(ρ(p,j,t)−pj)2N(p,t)/t\sum_p|\rho(p,j,t)-p_j|\,N(p,t)/t \le \sqrt{\sum_p(\rho(p,j,t)-p_j)^2 N(p,t)/t}∑p​∣ρ(p,j,t)−pj​∣N(p,t)/t≤∑p​(ρ(p,j,t)−pj​)2N(p,t)/t​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 makes the hypothesis of Theorem 1 attainable: combined, they show that there are learning procedures under which play converges in probability to the set of correlated equilibria of any finite game (the paper's Corollary, p. 49). The intermediate Lemma 1 is an early internal-regret bound; internal (swap) regret minimization later became the standard algorithmic route to correlated equilibria and to calibrated prediction in online learning.

Formalizing it. The result is proved, in the 1997 Appendix in telegraphic form and in full in Foster and Vohra (1998). The Appendix leaves several steps informal (see Formalization scope), so a machine-checked proof must supply them. No formalization of calibration or of internal regret was found on Prove2Me as of 2026-09-26. The mission produces a formal model of randomized forecasters against adaptive opponents, a checked internal-regret bound with an explicit constant, and the passage from regret to calibration.

Difficulty

The obvious approach is to pick, at each round, a forecast that corrects the current miscalibration. This is a deterministic rule, and by Oakes' theorem an opponent can defeat it. Randomization alone does not help either: the forecaster must randomize in a way that controls every pairwise regret Ri→jR^{i\to j}Ri→j at once, not only the regret against the best fixed forecast. External no-regret does not imply calibration.

Two further gaps separate Lemma 1 from Theorem 3. First, the Appendix controls a fractional score in which the event "forecast pip^ipi was issued" is replaced by its probability wtiw_t^iwti​. The realized calibration score involves the random choices, so a concentration argument is needed against an adaptive opponent. Second, a fixed grid gives calibration only up to its mesh ε\varepsilonε. Exact convergence requires letting the grid size kkk grow and ε\varepsilonε shrink over time, and the scores of the different phases must be combined.

Formalization scope

  • Model. Strategies are Fin n; forecasts are vectors Fin n → ℝ that are probability vectors (IsDist). Histories are Lean lists of (forecast, play) pairs, oldest first. Forecaster and opponent are maps from histories to Mathlib PMFs. The history law is built with PMF.bind/PMF.map, with the two draws independent given the past. P(Ct<ε)\mathbb P(C_t<\varepsilon)P(Ct​<ε) is the toOuterMeasure of the law, in ℝ≥0∞; no σ-algebra on histories is used.
  • Opponent. The opponent may be randomized and may depend on all past forecasts and plays; fixed sequences and deterministic rules are special cases. The opponent never sees the current forecast. Letting it see the current forecast would make the goal false, and restricting to fixed sequences would make it weaker than the paper.
  • Quantifiers. The forecaster is chosen before the opponent (∃ F, ∀ A). The reverse order is trivial, since one can forecast AAA's next play.
  • Conventions. Rounds are counted from 000, so the paper's rounds 1,…,t1,\dots,t1,…,t are the first ttt list entries. The paper's Rt−1R_{t-1}Rt−1​ is the regret over the 000-based rounds before ttt. Forecasts are grouped by exact equality of real vectors. Sums over ppp run over the forecasts that occur, and every other term vanishes. Scores divide by the history length, and are 000 for the empty history. "Converges in probability" is the lim⁡P(Ct<ε)=1\lim\mathbb P(C_t<\varepsilon)=1limP(Ct​<ε)=1 form the page states. The grid of milestone 3 is indexed 1,…,k1,\dots,k1,…,k (the page writes i=0,…,ki = 0,\dots,ki=0,…,k on p. 53 and 1,…,k1,\dots,k1,…,k in Lemma 1), and "within ε\varepsilonε" is read in squared Euclidean distance.
  • Pinned reading. The page writes the middle term of milestone 3 as E(C2(t))E(C_2(t))E(C2​(t)) with a garbled formula. The mission states the inequality for the fractional score C2,wC_{2,w}C2,w​, for which it holds.
  • Steps the paper leaves informal, not stated as milestones. (a) "E(C2(t))≤ε+O(k/2)E(C_2(t))\le\varepsilon + O(k/\sqrt2)E(C2​(t))≤ε+O(k/2​)" when the weights solve flow conservation; the OOO-term is garbled and should decay in ttt. (b) "if we let kkk grow slowly and ε\varepsilonε go slowly to zero … C2(t)→0C_2(t)\to 0C2​(t)→0 in expectation which implies C2(t)→0C_2(t)\to0C2​(t)→0 in probability by Jensen's inequality", together with the passage from the fractional score to the realized one. Solvers will have to formalize these steps on the way to the goal.
  • Not included. The Corollary on p. 49 (convergence in probability of play to the correlated equilibria when both players use the scheme). It needs the game layer and a quantitative form of Theorem 1, and the page gives no proof.
  • Infrastructure welcome. Finite Markov chain stationary distributions (for milestone 1), for which Prove2Me has MarkovChain.exists_isStationary for row-stochastic matrices. Also useful: martingale concentration for PMF-built processes, and Cauchy–Schwarz with weights. The history-law construction is reusable for any repeated forecasting game.

Selected references

  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997) 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • D. P. Foster and R. V. Vohra, Asymptotic calibration, Biometrika 85 (1998) 379–390. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/85.2.379
  • A. P. Dawid, The well-calibrated Bayesian, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 77 (1982) 605–613. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1982.10477856
  • D. Oakes, Self-calibrating priors do not exist, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 80 (1985) 339. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1985.10478117
  • S. Hart and A. Mas-Colell, A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 68 (2000) 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMachine LearningOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium I: Calibrated Forecasts with Best Responses Converge to the Set of Correlated EquilibriaResearch Paper

Motivation

A correlated equilibrium (Aumann 1974) is a joint distribution over the players' strategy profiles such that no player gains by deviating from the strategy the distribution recommends to them. It is the equilibrium notion that learning dynamics in repeated games most naturally reach, and a basic question in learning in games is which simple rules, played repeatedly, drive the empirical distribution of play to the set of correlated equilibria.

Foster and Vohra (1997) answer this with a hypothesis on forecasts instead of a particular algorithm. Each player forecasts the other's next move and best-responds to the forecast. They only require the forecasts to be calibrated in the sense of Dawid (1982): among the rounds in which a player forecast a given probability vector, the empirical frequencies of the opponent's moves must approach that vector. Their Theorem 1 says that this already forces the empirical joint distribution of play to approach the set of correlated equilibria. The paper uses this to argue that Bayesian players under a common prior, whose forecasts are calibrated by Dawid's theorem, end up playing a correlated equilibrium. That is an alternative to Aumann's (1987) derivation of correlated equilibrium from common priors and rationality.

Timeline:

  • Aumann (1974, 1987) introduces correlated equilibrium and derives it from Bayesian rationality.
  • Dawid (1982) proposes calibration as a minimal requirement on probability forecasts.
  • Foster and Vohra (1997) prove Theorem 1 (this mission) and show that calibrated forecasts exist once the forecaster may randomize.
  • Hart and Mas-Colell (2000) give regret matching, an adaptive procedure with the same limit set.

Setting

A finite two-player game GGG has strategy sets S(1)={0,…,m−1}S(1) = \{0, \dots, m-1\}S(1)={0,…,m−1} and S(2)={0,…,n−1}S(2) = \{0, \dots, n-1\}S(2)={0,…,n−1} and payoff matrices u1,u2:S(1)×S(2)→Ru_1, u_2 : S(1) \times S(2) \to \mathbb{R}u1​,u2​:S(1)×S(2)→R, which the players maximize. A joint distribution DDD is a nonnegative m×nm \times nm×n matrix with entries summing to 111. It is a correlated equilibrium if

∑x,yD(x,y) u1(Φ(x),y)≤∑x,yD(x,y) u1(x,y)for all Φ:S(1)→S(1),\sum_{x,y} D(x,y)\, u_1(\Phi(x), y) \le \sum_{x,y} D(x,y)\, u_1(x,y) \quad \text{for all } \Phi : S(1) \to S(1),x,y∑​D(x,y)u1​(Φ(x),y)≤x,y∑​D(x,y)u1​(x,y)for all Φ:S(1)→S(1),

and symmetrically for player 2. The set of correlated equilibria is π(G)\pi(G)π(G).

The game is played in rounds s=0,1,2,…s = 0, 1, 2, \dotss=0,1,2,…. In round sss player 1 issues a forecast f1(s)f_1(s)f1​(s), a probability vector over S(2)S(2)S(2), and player 2 issues a forecast f2(s)f_2(s)f2​(s) over S(1)S(1)S(1). Each player then plays a best response to its forecast, x(s)=R1(f1(s))x(s) = R_1(f_1(s))x(s)=R1​(f1​(s)) and y(s)=R2(f2(s))y(s) = R_2(f_2(s))y(s)=R2​(f2​(s)). Here R1R_1R1​ and R2R_2R2​ are best-reply functions: R1(p)R_1(p)R1​(p) maximizes ∑ypyu1(⋅,y)\sum_y p_y u_1(\cdot, y)∑y​py​u1​(⋅,y) for every probability vector ppp, and R1R_1R1​ is a fixed function of the forecast alone. This is the paper's standing assumption of a stationary, deterministic tie-breaking rule.

For a forecast sequence fff and the opponent's plays zzz, N(p,t)N(p,t)N(p,t) counts the rounds among the first ttt in which fff forecast ppp. ρ(p,j,t)\rho(p,j,t)ρ(p,j,t) is the fraction of those rounds in which the opponent played jjj, and 000 if there are none. The forecast is calibrated with respect to zzz if for every jjj

∑p∣ρ(p,j,t)−pj∣ N(p,t)t⟶0(t→∞).\sum_p |\rho(p,j,t) - p_j|\, \frac{N(p,t)}{t} \longrightarrow 0 \qquad (t \to \infty).p∑​∣ρ(p,j,t)−pj​∣tN(p,t)​⟶0(t→∞).

The empirical joint distribution Dt(x,y)D_t(x,y)Dt​(x,y) is the fraction of the first ttt rounds in which player 1 played xxx and player 2 played yyy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

If f1f_1f1​ is calibrated with respect to yyy and f2f_2f2​ is calibrated with respect to xxx, then

min⁡D∈π(G) max⁡x∈S(1), y∈S(2)∣Dt(x,y)−D(x,y)∣⟶0(t→∞).\min_{D \in \pi(G)} \ \max_{x \in S(1),\, y \in S(2)} |D_t(x,y) - D(x,y)| \longrightarrow 0 \qquad (t \to \infty).D∈π(G)min​ x∈S(1),y∈S(2)max​∣Dt​(x,y)−D(x,y)∣⟶0(t→∞).

The goal fixes no rate and no particular forecasting method: it asserts only convergence of DtD_tDt​ to the set π(G)\pi(G)π(G), for every calibrated forecast.

Milestones: the steps of the proof (pp. 44–45)

  1. DtD_tDt​ lies in the simplex for t≥1t \ge 1t≥1.
  2. For each x∈S(1)x \in S(1)x∈S(1), the set Mb(x)M_b(x)Mb​(x) of mixtures to which xxx is a best response is closed and convex.
  3. The mixtures Mp(x)M_p(x)Mp​(x) at which player 1 actually plays xxx satisfy Mp(x)⊆Mb(x)M_p(x) \subseteq M_b(x)Mp​(x)⊆Mb​(x).
  4. The identity writing Dt(x,y)D_t(x,y)Dt​(x,y) as a forecast-weighted term plus a calibration error.
  5. Calibration makes the error term vanish.
  6. The weighted average of the forecasts at which player 1 plays xxx lies in Mb(x)M_b(x)Mb​(x).
  7. For a convergent subsequence Dti→DD_{t_i} \to DDti​​→D, every row of DDD with positive mass, normalized, lies in Mb(x)M_b(x)Mb​(x).
  8. Every subsequential limit of DtD_tDt​ is a correlated equilibrium.

Further result: matching pennies (p. 46)

With the constant forecast (1/2,1/2)(1/2, 1/2)(1/2,1/2) and the non-stationary tie-break "heads on even rounds, tails on odd rounds", both forecasts are calibrated and every play is a best reply, yet DtD_tDt​ does not approach π(G)\pi(G)π(G). The stationarity assumption cannot be dropped.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 separates what learning needs from how it is achieved. Any forecasting procedure that is calibrated, combined with myopic best responses, yields correlated equilibrium behaviour in the long run. The paper's Theorem 3 constructs a randomized calibrated forecaster, so the theorem gives an uncoupled learning procedure for correlated equilibrium, one that needs no knowledge of the opponent's payoffs. The converse direction, that every correlated equilibrium arises this way for almost every game, is the paper's Theorem 2 (a separate mission of this series).

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper and has no machine-checked proof on Prove2Me or, to the knowledge of this mission, elsewhere. The platform's existing correlated-equilibrium results (the Algorithmic Game Theory swap-regret development, AGT.swap_regret_correlated_equilibrium) reach correlated equilibrium through swap regret of mixed strategies, a different hypothesis and a different object. This mission adds a formal notion of calibration and the convergence argument, both reusable for the paper's Theorems 2 and 3 and for later work on calibration and learning.

Difficulty

The obvious reading of calibration is that each player's forecast converges to the opponent's empirical distribution; if that held, best responses to it would give convergence. It does not hold. Calibration constrains the opponent's frequencies only conditionally on the forecast issued, and the forecasts need not converge at all. What must be shown is a statement about the conditional distributions of the joint play given each strategy of player 1, while the set of forecasts issued keeps growing. Rows of the limit with zero mass carry no conditional distribution. The "min → 0" form also asks for more than a property of limit points: it is a uniform statement about all large ttt.

Formalization scope

  • Strategies are Fin m and Fin n; payoffs are real matrices; forecasts are real vectors required to be probability vectors in every round.
  • A correlated equilibrium is the joint-distribution form of p. 44 (the correlated strategy on a finite probability space is represented by its law). It is the ε=0\varepsilon = 0ε=0, two-player, payoff (not cost) instance of the published AGT.IsCorrelatedEquilibrium, restated rather than imported.
  • The stationary deterministic tie-break is modelled by arbitrary best-reply functions RiR_iRi​ of the forecast. They do not depend on the round, and the statements quantify over all of them, which includes the lowest-index rule.
  • Forecasts are sequences fi:N→Rkf_i : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}^kfi​:N→Rk. The theorem uses only the realized forecasts, and every sequence is realized by a rule reading the round number from the history.
  • Rounds are indexed from 000: "the first ttt rounds" are 0,…,t−10, \dots, t-10,…,t−1. D0=0D_0 = 0D0​=0 by Lean's division convention; only t≥1t \ge 1t≥1 and limits are used.
  • The calibration sum runs over the forecasts issued in the first ttt rounds, which is the paper's sum over all ppp with its zero terms removed. ρ(p,j,t)=0\rho(p,j,t) = 0ρ(p,j,t)=0 when N(p,t)=0N(p,t) = 0N(p,t)=0, as on the page.
  • "min … → 0" is stated as: for every ε>0\varepsilon > 0ε>0, eventually some D∈π(G)D \in \pi(G)D∈π(G) is within ε\varepsilonε of DtD_tDt​ in every coordinate. The two forms are equivalent because π(G)\pi(G)π(G) is compact and nonempty. The formalization avoids an infimum over π(G)\pi(G)π(G), which Lean would evaluate to 000 on an empty set.
  • A statement that drops the best-reply property, the probability-vector condition on forecasts, or the stationarity of RiR_iRi​ is not Theorem 1: the matching pennies example shows the last one is essential. Swapping the calibration hypotheses (player 1's forecast calibrated against player 1's own plays) type-checks when m=nm = nm=n and is not the theorem.
  • Only the two-player case is claimed. The paper says the results "generalize easily to the nnn-person case" without proof.

Proofs of any milestone, and reusable lemmas about calibration scores and compactness of the simplex of joint distributions, are welcome.

Selected references

  • D. P. Foster, R. V. Vohra, Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997) 40–55. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1997.0595
  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974) 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • R. J. Aumann, Correlated equilibrium as an expression of Bayesian rationality, Econometrica 55 (1987) 1–18. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911154
  • A. P. Dawid, The well-calibrated Bayesian, Journal of the American Statistical Association 77 (1982) 605–610. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1982.10477856
  • S. Hart, A. Mas-Colell, A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 68 (2000) 1127–1150. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00153
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Operations ResearchProbabilityTheoretical Computer Science·Captain: mikedeng1

Competitive Paging Algorithms I: The Marking Algorithm Is 2H_k-CompetitiveResearch Paper

Motivation

Paging is the problem of managing a two-level memory: a fast cache holds kkk pages out of an address space of nnn pages, requests to pages arrive one at a time, and a request to a page outside the cache (a page fault) forces the algorithm to bring that page in and, when the cache is full, to evict another. The cost is the number of faults. An on-line algorithm decides which page to evict without knowing future requests. The comparison of paging policies with the optimal off-line policy is where competitive analysis began.

Sleator and Tarjan showed that LRU and FIFO are within a factor kkk of the off-line optimum and that no deterministic on-line algorithm does better than kkk (Sleator–Tarjan 1985). Randomization changes the picture: Fiat, Karp, Luby, McGeoch, Sleator and Young introduced the marking algorithm and proved that its expected cost is within a factor 2Hk2H_k2Hk​ of the optimum, where Hk=1+12+⋯+1k≈ln⁡kH_k = 1 + \frac12 + \dots + \frac1k \approx \ln kHk​=1+21​+⋯+k1​≈lnk (arXiv:cs/0205038).

Timeline.

  • 1985: Sleator and Tarjan: LRU and FIFO are kkk-competitive; no deterministic algorithm beats kkk.
  • 1988: Karlin, Manasse, Rudolph and Sleator coin "competitive" and analyse flush-when-full (Algorithmica 3).
  • 1990: Manasse, McGeoch and Sleator introduce the kkk-server problem and define competitiveness for randomized algorithms (J. Algorithms 11).
  • 1991: Fiat et al.: the marking algorithm is 2Hk2H_k2Hk​-competitive, and Hn−1H_{n-1}Hn−1​-competitive when k=n−1k = n-1k=n−1; no randomized paging algorithm beats HkH_kHk​.
  • 1991: McGeoch and Sleator give an HkH_kHk​-competitive randomized paging algorithm (Algorithmica 6).
  • 2000: Achlioptas, Chrobak and Noga determine the exact competitive ratio of the marking algorithm, 2Hk−12H_k - 12Hk​−1 (Theoret. Comput. Sci. 234).

Setting

The paper works in the uniform kkk-server problem, which is isomorphic to paging. There is a set MMM of nnn vertices, enumerated e(0),…,e(n−1)e(0), \dots, e(n-1)e(0),…,e(n−1), and moving a server between two distinct vertices costs 111. There are kkk servers, 1≤k≤n1 \le k \le n1≤k≤n. A request is a vertex, and after each request some server must be on it. Cached pages are covered vertices; a fault is a server move.

The marking algorithm starts with its servers on e(0),…,e(k−1)e(0), \dots, e(k-1)e(0),…,e(k−1) and keeps a set of marked vertices, initially the covered ones. On a request to rrr:

  1. Marking. rrr is marked; the moment k+1k+1k+1 vertices are marked, all marks except the one on rrr are erased.
  2. Serving. If rrr is covered, nothing moves. Otherwise a server is chosen uniformly at random among the covered unmarked vertices and moved to rrr.

The marks are updated before the server is chosen. For a finite request sequence σ\sigmaσ, CM(σ)C_M(\sigma)CM​(σ) is the algorithm's expected number of server moves. OPT(σ)\mathrm{OPT}(\sigma)OPT(σ) is the least number of moves with which kkk servers, starting from the same configuration C0C_0C0​ and knowing σ\sigmaσ in advance, can serve σ\sigmaσ.

A randomized algorithm is ccc-competitive if there is a constant aaa such that CM(σ)≤c⋅CB(σ)+aC_M(\sigma) \le c \cdot C_B(\sigma) + aCM​(σ)≤c⋅CB​(σ)+a for every request sequence σ\sigmaσ and every algorithm BBB.

The marks divide σ\sigmaσ into phases. A new phase begins at the request that would make k+1k+1k+1 vertices marked. A vertex is clean in a phase if it was not requested in the previous phase and not yet in this one, and stale if it was requested in the previous phase but not yet in this one.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

∃ a∈R  ∀σ:CM(σ)  ≤  2Hk⋅OPT(σ)+a.\exists\, a \in \mathbb R\ \ \forall \sigma:\qquad C_M(\sigma) \;\le\; 2H_k \cdot \mathrm{OPT}(\sigma) + a .∃a∈R  ∀σ:CM​(σ)≤2Hk​⋅OPT(σ)+a.

The constant aaa may depend on nnn, kkk and the enumeration, never on σ\sigmaσ.

Milestones (proof of Theorem 1, pp. 4–5)

  1. Without loss of generality the adversary is lazy: no move on a covered request, exactly one move otherwise (reference item, already proved on the platform).
  2. At the start of every phase the marked vertices are exactly the covered ones, and the first request of a phase is unmarked.
  3. In a phase with lll clean requests, a lazy adversary pays CA≥l−dC_A \ge l - dCA​≥l−d, where ddd counts its servers off the marking algorithm's servers at the start of the phase.
  4. It also pays CA≥d′C_A \ge d'CA​≥d′, where d′d'd′ counts its servers off the final marked set at the end of the phase.
  5. Hence CA≥max⁡(l−d,d′)≥12(l−d+d′)C_A \ge \max(l-d, d') \ge \tfrac12(l - d + d')CA​≥max(l−d,d′)≥21​(l−d+d′).
  6. A request to a stale vertex is a fault with probability c/sc/sc/s (ccc clean vertices requested so far, sss stale vertices left).
  7. The marking algorithm's expected cost in a phase is at most l(Hk−Hl+1)≤lHkl(H_k - H_l + 1) \le lH_kl(Hk​−Hl​+1)≤lHk​.

Companions

  • Theorem 2: for k=n−1k = n-1k=n−1, CM(σ)≤Hn−1⋅OPT(σ)+aC_M(\sigma) \le H_{n-1} \cdot \mathrm{OPT}(\sigma) + aCM​(σ)≤Hn−1​⋅OPT(σ)+a.
  • Tightness remark (pp. 5–6): for k=2k = 2k=2, n=4n = 4n=4 there is no aaa with CM(σ)≤H2⋅OPT(σ)+aC_M(\sigma) \le H_2 \cdot \mathrm{OPT}(\sigma) + aCM​(σ)≤H2​⋅OPT(σ)+a for all σ\sigmaσ.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 was the first proof that randomization beats the deterministic barrier kkk for paging, bringing the ratio down to O(log⁡k)O(\log k)O(logk). Together with the paper's lower bound HkH_kHk​ for every randomized algorithm, it determines the randomized competitive ratio of paging up to a factor 222. Its phase and clean/stale accounting is reused throughout the analysis of randomized caching.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved (1991). As far as is known it has no machine-checked proof. Formalizing it requires a probabilistic model of a randomized on-line algorithm, an off-line optimum, and a phase decomposition with an exchangeability argument, and these are the first such objects in this library. Theorem 2 and the k=2k = 2k=2, n=4n = 4n=4 example use the same definitions and also check that the formal algorithm is the paper's. The sharp ratio 2Hk−12H_k - 12Hk​−1 is a natural follow-up.

Difficulty

The comparison is between a random process and a deterministic adversary, and each side has its own obstacle.

On the algorithm's side, the configuration inside a phase is random, and the fault probability of a stale request depends on the whole history of the phase. The claim that the ccc uncovered stale vertices form a uniformly random subset of the sss stale ones is an exchangeability property of the process, and must be established from the step-by-step uniform choice. The worst-case ordering of the requests within a phase then has to be justified as a bound, not assumed.

On the adversary's side, the per-phase bound max⁡(l−d,d′)\max(l-d, d')max(l−d,d′) does not sum directly. The ddd and d′d'd′ terms telescope across phases only because the configuration of the marking algorithm at each phase boundary is deterministic. The first phase, which begins after an initial run of requests to e(0),…,e(k−1)e(0), \dots, e(k-1)e(0),…,e(k−1), and the last, incomplete phase have to be absorbed into the additive constant.

Formalization scope

The vertex set is an abstract metric space MMM with e:Fin n≃Me : \mathrm{Fin}\,n \simeq Me:Finn≃M and dist(x,y)=1\mathrm{dist}(x,y) = 1dist(x,y)=1 for x≠yx \ne yx=y. The natural metric ∣i−j∣|i - j|∣i−j∣ on Fin n\mathrm{Fin}\,nFinn is deliberately not used. The configurations and the off-line optimum OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT are the published KServer definitions (KServer.Config, KServer.offlineCost), with OPT\mathrm{OPT}OPT taken from the marking algorithm's initial configuration. An off-line algorithm starting elsewhere changes the cost by at most kkk, which is absorbed into aaa.

The marking algorithm is a Markov chain on pairs (covered set, marked set). Each step is a PMF, with the eviction drawn by PMF.uniformOfFinset from the covered unmarked vertices. The expected cost is the sum over requests of the probability that the request is not covered, which is exact because the algorithm moves exactly one server per fault. Harmonic numbers are Mathlib's harmonic, cast to R\mathbb RR. Phases, clean counts and lazy off-line schedules are defined once, in the mission's definition file, and all milestones use them.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out as follows. The additive constant is quantified before σ\sigmaσ, so a per-sequence constant cannot be used. The comparison is with the optimum over all off-line schedules, not a particular one. The random choice is among the covered unmarked vertices, with marks updated first. The hypothesis 1≤k≤n1 \le k \le n1≤k≤n excludes the degenerate case k=0k = 0k=0, where H0=0H_0 = 0H0​=0.

Proofs of individual milestones are welcome. The laziness reduction for off-line schedules, the exchangeability lemma for the uniform eviction process, and the harmonic-sum identity ∑j=l+1kl/j=l(Hk−Hl)\sum_{j=l+1}^{k} l/j = l(H_k - H_l)∑j=l+1k​l/j=l(Hk​−Hl​) are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • A. Fiat, R. M. Karp, M. Luby, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, N. E. Young, Competitive Paging Algorithms, J. Algorithms 12(4):685–699, 1991; arXiv:cs/0205038v1. https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0205038
  • D. D. Sleator, R. E. Tarjan, Amortized Efficiency of List Update and Paging Rules, Comm. ACM 28(2):202–208, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1145/2786.2793
  • A. R. Karlin, M. S. Manasse, L. Rudolph, D. D. Sleator, Competitive Snoopy Caching, Algorithmica 3:79–119, 1988. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01762111
  • M. S. Manasse, L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, Competitive Algorithms for Server Problems, J. Algorithms 11(2):208–230, 1990. https://doi.org/10.1016/0196-6774(90)90003-W
  • L. A. McGeoch, D. D. Sleator, A Strongly Competitive Randomized Paging Algorithm, Algorithmica 6:816–825, 1991. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01759073
  • D. Achlioptas, M. Chrobak, J. Noga, Competitive Analysis of Randomized Paging Algorithms, Theoret. Comput. Sci. 234:203–218, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3975(98)00116-9
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Algorithmic Game TheoryMechanism DesignOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Bargaining under Incomplete Information I: Class A Equilibrium Offer Strategies Satisfy the Linked Differential EquationsResearch Paper

Motivation

A buyer and a seller negotiate over a single indivisible good. Each knows how much the good is worth to them, but not how much it is worth to the other side. Whether the two will trade, and at what price, then depends on how each party shades its offer to exploit the other's uncertainty. Chatterjee and Samuelson (Bargaining under Incomplete Information, Operations Research 31(5), 1983) modelled this situation as a one-shot game in which both parties submit sealed offers simultaneously, and characterised its Bayesian equilibria.

The model became the standard reference point for bilateral trade with two-sided private information. Myerson and Satterthwaite (J. Econ. Theory 29, 1983) showed that no mechanism can guarantee efficient trade in this setting, and that the equilibrium of the Chatterjee–Samuelson game with k=1/2k = 1/2k=1/2 and uniform values attains the second-best efficiency bound. Later work on the kkk-double auction (Satterthwaite and Williams, J. Econ. Theory 48, 1989; Leininger, Linhart and Radner, J. Econ. Theory 48, 1989) studies the continuum of equilibria of exactly this game. The object of the present mission, a pair of linked differential equations, is the tool these papers use to construct and classify equilibria.

Setting

A seller has reservation price vs∈[v‾s,vˉs]v_s \in [\underline v_s, \bar v_s]vs​∈[v​s​,vˉs​] and a buyer has reservation price vb∈[v‾b,vˉb]v_b \in [\underline v_b, \bar v_b]vb​∈[v​b​,vˉb​]. Each knows their own value. The buyer's belief about vsv_svs​ is a probability measure μb\mu_bμb​ with distribution function FbF_bFb​; the seller's belief about vbv_bvb​ is μs\mu_sμs​ with distribution function FsF_sFs​. The subscript names the player who holds the belief, not the variable. Each belief is regular: F(v‾)=0F(\underline v) = 0F(v​)=0, F(vˉ)=1F(\bar v) = 1F(vˉ)=1, and FFF is strictly increasing and differentiable on the value interval, with density fbf_bfb​ (respectively fsf_sfs​).

Under the Bargaining Rule, the seller asks sss and the buyer offers bbb simultaneously. If b≥sb \ge sb≥s the good is sold at P=kb+(1−k)sP = kb + (1-k)sP=kb+(1−k)s for a fixed k∈[0,1]k \in [0, 1]k∈[0,1]; otherwise nothing happens. Profits are P−vsP - v_sP−vs​ for the seller and vb−Pv_b - Pvb​−P for the buyer on trade, and zero otherwise.

An offer strategy is a function SSS (for the seller) or BBB (for the buyer) from values to offers. Against SSS, a buyer with value vvv offering bbb earns in expectation

πb(b,v)=∫1{S(vs)≤b} (v−kb−(1−k)S(vs)) dμb(vs),\pi_b(b, v) = \int \mathbf 1\{S(v_s) \le b\}\,\bigl(v - kb - (1-k)S(v_s)\bigr)\,d\mu_b(v_s),πb​(b,v)=∫1{S(vs​)≤b}(v−kb−(1−k)S(vs​))dμb​(vs​),

and symmetrically πs(s,v)=∫1{s≤B(vb)} (kB(vb)+(1−k)s−v) dμs(vb)\pi_s(s, v) = \int \mathbf 1\{s \le B(v_b)\}\,(kB(v_b) + (1-k)s - v)\,d\mu_s(v_b)πs​(s,v)=∫1{s≤B(vb​)}(kB(vb​)+(1−k)s−v)dμs​(vb​). The pair (S,B)(S, B)(S,B) is an equilibrium if B(v)B(v)B(v) maximises πb(⋅,v)\pi_b(\cdot, v)πb​(⋅,v) over all real offers for every buyer value vvv, and S(v)S(v)S(v) maximises πs(⋅,v)\pi_s(\cdot, v)πs​(⋅,v) for every seller value vvv.

A strategy is of class AAA if its offers are bounded, it is nondecreasing, it is strictly increasing except where it sits at its lowest offer mmm or its highest offer MMM, and it is differentiable wherever its offer lies strictly between mmm and MMM. A class AAA equilibrium is an equilibrium in which both strategies are of class AAA.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2, the linked differential equations

In a class AAA equilibrium, wherever the seller's strategy is strictly increasing around yyy and the buyer value xxx offers B(x)=S(y)B(x) = S(y)B(x)=S(y),

kFb(y)S′(y)+fb(y)S(y)=x fb(y),(3a)k F_b(y) S'(y) + f_b(y) S(y) = x\, f_b(y), \tag{3a}kFb​(y)S′(y)+fb​(y)S(y)=xfb​(y),(3a)

and wherever the buyer's strategy is strictly increasing around xxx and the seller value yyy asks S(y)=B(x)S(y) = B(x)S(y)=B(x),

(1−k)(1−Fs(x))B′(x)−fs(x)B(x)=− y fs(x).(3b)(1-k)\bigl(1 - F_s(x)\bigr) B'(x) - f_s(x) B(x) = -\,y\, f_s(x). \tag{3b}(1−k)(1−Fs​(x))B′(x)−fs​(x)B(x)=−yfs​(x).(3b)

The paper writes x=B−1(S(y))x = B^{-1}(S(y))x=B−1(S(y)) in (3a) and y=S−1(B(x))y = S^{-1}(B(x))y=S−1(B(x)) in (3b).

Milestones: the displays of the proof

  1. Gb(S(y))=Fb(y)G_b(S(y)) = F_b(y)Gb​(S(y))=Fb​(y): the buyer's probability that the seller asks at most S(y)S(y)S(y) equals Fb(y)F_b(y)Fb​(y).
  2. The buyer's first-order condition: ∂πb/∂b=(v−b)gb(b)−kGb(b)\partial \pi_b / \partial b = (v - b) g_b(b) - k G_b(b)∂πb​/∂b=(v−b)gb​(b)−kGb​(b) at b=S(y)b = S(y)b=S(y), with offer density gb(S(y))=fb(y)/S′(y)g_b(S(y)) = f_b(y)/S'(y)gb​(S(y))=fb​(y)/S′(y), and it vanishes at an equilibrium offer.
  3. The seller's first-order condition: ∂πs/∂s=(v−s)gs(s)+(1−k)(1−Gs(s))\partial \pi_s / \partial s = (v - s) g_s(s) + (1-k)(1 - G_s(s))∂πs​/∂s=(v−s)gs​(s)+(1−k)(1−Gs​(s)) at s=B(x)s = B(x)s=B(x), and it vanishes at an equilibrium ask.

The milestones assume S′(y)>0S'(y) > 0S′(y)>0 (respectively B′(x)>0B'(x) > 0B′(x)>0), which the paper's formula for the offer density needs. The goal does not assume it.

Significance

Theorem 2 reduces the search for equilibria to the analysis of a pair of ordinary differential equations. Every explicit equilibrium in the paper and in the later kkk-double-auction literature is found as a solution of (3a)–(3b) with suitable boundary conditions: the linear equilibrium for uniform beliefs (the paper's Example 1), the one-parameter families of Satterthwaite–Williams, and the non-linear equilibria of Leininger–Linhart–Radner. The equations also expose how the split parameter kkk distributes bargaining power: at k=1k = 1k=1 equation (3b) forces the seller to ask their own value, and at k=0k = 0k=0 equation (3a) forces the buyer to bid theirs.

The result is proved in the paper. To the best of a search of the platform, no formalization of it or of the bargaining model exists. This mission produces a machine-checked version of the necessary conditions. Its definitions of beliefs, expected profits, equilibrium and class AAA are also the basis for companion missions on the uniform linear equilibrium and its trade probability.

Difficulty

The paper's proof is four lines: differentiate the expected profit, set the derivative to zero, substitute. Three steps of that argument do not survive a careful reading.

First, the paper differentiates under an offer density gbg_bgb​ that exists only if SSS is strictly increasing and has a positive derivative. Class AAA allows SSS to be flat at its bounds, to jump between them, and to have zero derivative. The formal goal assumes none of this. It must handle the case S′(y)=0S'(y) = 0S′(y)=0, where the offer distribution has an infinite density at S(y)S(y)S(y) and the first-order condition becomes a one-sided argument.

Second, identifying Gb(S(y))G_b(S(y))Gb​(S(y)) with Fb(y)F_b(y)Fb​(y) requires that no seller value outside a neighbourhood of yyy makes the same offer. That is a global statement about SSS, and it is where monotonicity on the whole interval and the "flat only at the bounds" clause of class AAA enter.

Third, the first-order condition needs the equilibrium offer S(y)S(y)S(y) to be an interior maximiser of a function of bbb that is differentiable there. The profit πb\pi_bπb​ is an integral over the belief, and its differentiability at S(y)S(y)S(y) must be derived from the differentiability of SSS at the single point yyy and of FbF_bFb​. Neither SSS nor πb\pi_bπb​ is assumed continuous elsewhere.

Formalization scope

Values, offers and kkk are real numbers. Beliefs are probability measures on R\mathbb RR, with distribution function Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.cdf. Expected profits are Bochner integrals over the opponent's value, not over an offer density. The two agree whenever the density exists, and the integral form needs none. Integrability is not assumed: for a class AAA strategy and a regular belief supported on the value interval, the integrand is bounded and almost everywhere measurable. Ties (b=sb = sb=s) trade. Deviations range over all real offers. Strategies are arbitrary functions R→R\mathbb R \to \mathbb RR→R whose values outside the value interval play no role.

The derivative S′(y)S'(y)S′(y) is deriv S y. The paper's inverses B−1B^{-1}B−1 and S−1S^{-1}S−1 are not introduced as functions. The matching value is a universally quantified variable xxx with B(x)=S(y)B(x) = S(y)B(x)=S(y), so no junk value of an inverse can make an equation true or false. The equations are asserted only at values yyy interior to an open subinterval on which SSS is strictly increasing. A formalization that assumed the first-order condition, or restricted to strategies with S′>0S' > 0S′>0 everywhere, would be a different and weaker theorem.

A complete development needs: differentiation of parametric integrals of indicator type (the derivative of b↦∫1{S≤b} h dμb \mapsto \int \mathbf 1\{S \le b\}\,h\,d\mub↦∫1{S≤b}hdμ), the change of variables from values to offers under a strictly increasing strategy, and Fermat's rule (IsLocalMax.hasDerivAt_eq_zero). The first two are reusable for auctions and other Bayesian games with monotone strategies. Proofs of the milestones, alternative proofs of the goal, and general lemmas about monotone strategies are welcome.

Selected references

  • K. Chatterjee and W. Samuelson, Bargaining under Incomplete Information, Operations Research 31(5):835–851, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.31.5.835
  • R. B. Myerson and M. A. Satterthwaite, Efficient Mechanisms for Bilateral Trading, Journal of Economic Theory 29(2):265–281, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(83)90048-0
  • M. A. Satterthwaite and S. R. Williams, Bilateral Trade with the Sealed Bid k-Double Auction: Existence and Efficiency, Journal of Economic Theory 48(1):107–133, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90120-8
  • W. Leininger, P. B. Linhart and R. Radner, Equilibria of the Sealed-Bid Mechanism for Bargaining with Incomplete Information, Journal of Economic Theory 48(1):63–106, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90121-X
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The Generalized Quasi-Variational Inequality Problem II: Existence via Projection and the Brouwer Fixed Point TheoremResearch Paper

Motivation

A variational inequality asks for a point xxx of a set K⊆RnK\subseteq\mathbb R^nK⊆Rn at which a vector field fff makes a non-obtuse angle with every feasible direction: (x′−x)Tf(x)≥0(x'-x)^T f(x)\ge 0(x′−x)Tf(x)≥0 for all x′∈Kx'\in Kx′∈K. It is the common form of the first-order optimality condition of a constrained optimization problem, of complementarity problems in mathematical programming, and of equilibrium conditions in traffic networks and economics. Two generalizations are standard in operations research. In a quasi-variational inequality the constraint set depends on the unknown, K=K(x)K=K(x)K=K(x), as in generalized Nash games where each player's feasible set depends on the other players' choices. In a generalized variational inequality the vector field is set-valued, y∈f(x)y\in f(x)y∈f(x), as when fff is the subdifferential of a nonsmooth convex function.

D. Chan and J. S. Pang (Math. Oper. Res. 7 (1982) 211–222) introduced the problem that combines both, the generalized quasi-variational inequality (GQVI), and proved existence theorems for it. Their §5 gives a second route to existence, independent of the set-valued fixed point theory of their §3: a solution is a fixed point of a map built from Euclidean projections, and for single-valued continuous fff the Brouwer fixed point theorem produces one. The characterization of solutions as projection fixed points, for the generalized variational inequality, is due to Fang and Peterson (reference [11] of the paper, a 1979 University of Maryland Baltimore County research report). This mission formalizes that projection route.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb R^nRn with the Euclidean inner product xTyx^TyxTy and norm ∥x∥\|x\|∥x∥. A point-to-set mapping KKK assigns to each x∈Rnx\in\mathbb R^nx∈Rn a subset K(x)⊆RnK(x)\subseteq\mathbb R^nK(x)⊆Rn; a point-to-point mapping fff assigns a vector f(x)f(x)f(x).

The GQVI. Given point-to-set mappings KKK and fff, GQVI(K,f)\mathrm{GQVI}(K,f)GQVI(K,f) asks for vectors xxx and yyy with

x∈K(x),y∈f(x),(x′−x)Ty≥0  for all x′∈K(x).x\in K(x),\qquad y\in f(x),\qquad (x'-x)^Ty\ge 0\ \text{ for all } x'\in K(x).x∈K(x),y∈f(x),(x′−x)Ty≥0  for all x′∈K(x).

Such a pair is a solution. For a point-to-point fff one takes y=f(x)y=f(x)y=f(x): find x∈K(x)x\in K(x)x∈K(x) with (x′−x)Tf(x)≥0(x'-x)^Tf(x)\ge0(x′−x)Tf(x)≥0 for all x′∈K(x)x'\in K(x)x′∈K(x).

Projection. For a set SSS and a point zzz, the projection PS(z)=sol⁡min⁡x∈S∥x−z∥P_S(z)=\operatorname{sol}\min_{x\in S}\|x-z\|PS​(z)=solminx∈S​∥x−z∥ is the nearest point of SSS to zzz. For nonempty closed convex SSS it exists and is unique.

Semicontinuity of point-to-set mappings (Berge). KKK is upper semicontinuous at xxx if for every open G⊇K(x)G\supseteq K(x)G⊇K(x) there is a neighbourhood NNN of xxx with K(x′)⊆GK(x')\subseteq GK(x′)⊆G for x′∈Nx'\in Nx′∈N; lower semicontinuous at xxx if for every open GGG meeting K(x)K(x)K(x) there is a neighbourhood NNN of xxx with K(x′)∩G≠∅K(x')\cap G\ne\emptysetK(x′)∩G=∅ for x′∈Nx'\in Nx′∈N; continuous if both. "On a set CCC" means at every point of CCC, with neighbourhoods relative to CCC.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.2 (p. 220)

Let fff be continuous on a nonempty compact convex set CCC, and let KKK be a continuous mapping on CCC whose values K(x)K(x)K(x), x∈Cx\in Cx∈C, are nonempty, closed, convex and contained in CCC. Then there is xxx with

x∈K(x),(x′−x)Tf(x)≥0for all x′∈K(x).x\in K(x),\qquad (x'-x)^Tf(x)\ge 0\quad\text{for all }x'\in K(x).x∈K(x),(x′−x)Tf(x)≥0for all x′∈K(x).

Milestone: Lemma 5.1 (p. 220)

If KKK is continuous at x0x_0x0​ and every K(x)K(x)K(x) is nonempty, closed and convex, then for every y0y_0y0​ the map

(x,y)⟼p(x,y)=PK(x)(y)(x,y)\longmapsto p(x,y)=P_{K(x)}(y)(x,y)⟼p(x,y)=PK(x)​(y)

is continuous at (x0,y0)(x_0,y_0)(x0​,y0​).

Milestone: Theorem 5.1 (p. 220)

If every K(x)K(x)K(x) is closed and convex, then for every pair (x∗,y∗)(x^*,y^*)(x∗,y∗)

(x∗,y∗) solves GQVI(K,f)  ⟺  x∗=PK(x∗)(x∗−y∗) and y∗∈f(x∗).(x^*,y^*)\ \text{solves}\ \mathrm{GQVI}(K,f)\iff x^*=P_{K(x^*)}(x^*-y^*)\ \text{and}\ y^*\in f(x^*).(x∗,y∗) solves GQVI(K,f)⟺x∗=PK(x∗)​(x∗−y∗) and y∗∈f(x∗).

The Brouwer fixed point theorem is already on the platform (AGT.brouwer_fixed_point) and is included as a reference item, as is the Hilbert-space nearest-point theorem VectorSpaceOpt.min_distance_convex_set.

Significance

Theorem 5.2 is the existence theorem for quasi-variational inequalities with a moving convex constraint set and a continuous single-valued field, under compactness. With KKK constant it is the Hartman–Stampacchia theorem (Acta Math. 115 (1966) 271–310), the basic existence result for finite-dimensional variational inequalities, and so it also covers existence of equilibria of generalized Nash games whose shared constraints satisfy the continuity hypotheses. The paper notes that Theorem 5.2 also follows from its Corollary 3.1, which rests on the Eilenberg–Montgomery fixed point theorem; the projection route needs only Brouwer.

Theorem 5.1 matters beyond this existence result: it turns the GQVI into a fixed-point equation, which is the basis of projection algorithms for variational inequalities and of the contraction argument of the paper's Theorem 5.3. Lemma 5.1, continuity of the projection onto a continuously moving closed convex set, is a stability result used throughout parametric optimization.

All three statements were proved in 1982. None has a machine-checked proof on the platform or in Mathlib, which has neither a projection onto a general closed convex set as a function of the set nor any variational inequality. The work of this mission is to formalize the known proofs.

Difficulty

Theorem 5.1 is a direct consequence of the variational characterization of the nearest point of a convex set. The substance lies in Lemma 5.1 and in adapting it to the goal. The projection depends on the set K(x)K(x)K(x), not only on the point, and continuity of KKK is a statement about sets, given by two separate semicontinuity conditions that each control only one side of the convergence. Neither alone suffices: upper semicontinuity without lower lets K(x)K(x)K(x) shrink abruptly and the nearest point jump; lower without upper lets limits of nearest points fall outside K(x0)K(x_0)K(x0​). The limit points of the projections must also be kept bounded, which needs the nonemptiness near x0x_0x0​.

A second difficulty is that the goal assumes continuity of KKK only on CCC, with neighbourhoods relative to CCC, while Lemma 5.1 is stated for continuity at a point of Rn\mathbb R^nRn. Applying the lemma to the composite map x↦PK(x)(x−f(x))x\mapsto P_{K(x)}(x-f(x))x↦PK(x)​(x−f(x)) on CCC therefore requires either a relative version of the lemma or a reduction; the lemma cannot be quoted verbatim.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with its Euclidean norm, never the sup-norm space Fin n → ℝ. Point-to-set mappings are functions into Set. The solution predicate is IsGQVISolution K f x y; a point-to-point fff enters as fun z => {f z}. Upper and lower semicontinuity are Mathlib's UpperHemicontinuousAt/On and LowerHemicontinuousAt/On; "continuous on CCC" is both, relative to CCC.

The projection is IsProj S z p (nearest-point predicate) and proj S z, which returns a nearest point when one exists and the junk value zzz otherwise. Theorem 5.1 uses the relational form, so no junk value enters when K(x∗)=∅K(x^*)=\emptysetK(x∗)=∅. Lemma 5.1 assumes every K(x)K(x)K(x) nonempty, closed and convex, so proj is always the true projection there.

Two hypotheses implicit in the paper are explicit:

  1. Closed values in Theorem 5.2. The paper uses Berge's definitions, under which upper semicontinuous mappings have compact values, and its proof uses that each K(x)K(x)K(x) is closed. The Lean statement assumes K(x)K(x)K(x) closed for x∈Cx\in Cx∈C; without it the theorem is false (C=[0,1]C=[0,1]C=[0,1], K(x)≡(0,1)K(x)\equiv(0,1)K(x)≡(0,1), f≡1f\equiv1f≡1).
  2. Nonempty values in Lemma 5.1. The projection function p(x,y)=PK(x)(y)p(x,y)=P_{K(x)}(y)p(x,y)=PK(x)​(y) is defined only for nonempty K(x)K(x)K(x); the Lean statement assumes K(x)≠∅K(x)\ne\emptysetK(x)=∅ for all xxx.

A formalization in which the projection is merely "some point of K(x)K(x)K(x)", or ignores the distance, would make the reverse direction of Theorem 5.1 false and Lemma 5.1 meaningless; a GQVI whose test points range over CCC instead of K(x)K(x)K(x) would turn Theorem 5.2 into a plain variational inequality on CCC. Both are excluded by the definitions above.

A complete development needs the nearest-point characterization on closed convex sets (available in Mathlib and on the platform), sequential characterizations of upper and lower hemicontinuity for closed-valued mappings in Rn\mathbb R^nRn, continuity of the projection onto a moving convex set, and Brouwer's theorem (a platform reference). The hemicontinuity lemmas and the projection-continuity lemma are reusable for the other missions of this series and for parametric optimization in general. Proofs of Lemma 5.1 and Theorem 5.1, a relative-to-CCC version of Lemma 5.1, and a proof of Brouwer's theorem are all welcome.

Selected references

  • D. Chan and J. S. Pang, The generalized quasi-variational inequality problem, Mathematics of Operations Research 7(2) (1982) 211–222. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.7.2.211
  • S. C. Fang and E. L. Peterson, Generalized variational inequalities, Mathematics Research Report No. 79-10, Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, October 1979 (cited by Chan and Pang as [11]; no online copy).
  • P. Hartman and G. Stampacchia, On some non-linear elliptic differential-functional equations, Acta Mathematica 115 (1966) 271–310. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02392210
  • C. Berge, Topological Spaces, The Macmillan Company, New York, 1963 (definitions of upper and lower semicontinuity of point-to-set mappings).
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Control TheoryDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Monotone Mappings with Application in Dynamic Programming I: Compactness Gives Convergence of the DP Algorithm and an Optimal Stationary Policy under Uniform IncreaseResearch Paper

Motivation

Infinite-horizon optimal control problems with nonnegative costs (Strauch's negative dynamic programming, the positive-cost counterpart of Blackwell's positive model) are among the settings where the standard tools of discounted dynamic programming fail: there is no contraction, costs may be infinite, and the value-iteration algorithm started from zero may converge to the wrong limit. Strauch showed in 1966 that under these assumptions the limit of value iteration can lie strictly below the optimal cost (Strauch 1966). Bertsekas (1977) recast the deterministic, stochastic and minimax versions of these problems as one abstract problem about a monotone mapping HHH, and proved Bellman's equation, optimality criteria for stationary policies, and conditions for convergence of the dynamic programming algorithm at that level of generality (Bertsekas 1977). This framework became the basis of the "abstract dynamic programming" theory developed later in Bertsekas and Shreve (1978) and Bertsekas (2013, 2022).

This mission formalizes the part of the paper that works under the uniform increase assumption, culminating in the paper's compactness condition for convergence of value iteration.

Setting

A model consists of a nonempty state space SSS, a control space CCC, for each x∈Sx\in Sx∈S a nonempty constraint set U(x)⊆CU(x)\subseteq CU(x)⊆C, a mapping H:S×C×F→[−∞,+∞]H:S\times C\times F\to[-\infty,+\infty]H:S×C×F→[−∞,+∞], where FFF is the set of functions J:S→[−∞,∞]J:S\to[-\infty,\infty]J:S→[−∞,∞] ordered pointwise, and a terminal function Jˉ∈F\bar J\in FJˉ∈F with Jˉ(x)>−∞\bar J(x)>-\inftyJˉ(x)>−∞. HHH is monotone: J≤J′J\le J'J≤J′ implies H(x,u,J)≤H(x,u,J′)H(x,u,J)\le H(x,u,J')H(x,u,J)≤H(x,u,J′) for u∈U(x)u\in U(x)u∈U(x).

A selector is μ:S→C\mu:S\to Cμ:S→C with μ(x)∈U(x)\mu(x)\in U(x)μ(x)∈U(x); a policy is a sequence π={μ0,μ1,… }\pi=\{\mu_0,\mu_1,\dots\}π={μ0​,μ1​,…} of selectors, and {μ,μ,… }\{\mu,\mu,\dots\}{μ,μ,…} is stationary. Define

Tμ(J)(x)=H(x,μ(x),J),T(J)(x)=inf⁡u∈U(x)H(x,u,J),T_\mu(J)(x)=H(x,\mu(x),J),\qquad T(J)(x)=\inf_{u\in U(x)}H(x,u,J),Tμ​(J)(x)=H(x,μ(x),J),T(J)(x)=u∈U(x)inf​H(x,u,J), Jπ(x)=lim⁡N→∞(Tμ0⋯TμN−1)(Jˉ)(x),J∗(x)=inf⁡πJπ(x),J∞(x)=lim⁡N→∞TN(Jˉ)(x).J_\pi(x)=\lim_{N\to\infty}(T_{\mu_0}\cdots T_{\mu_{N-1}})(\bar J)(x),\qquad J^*(x)=\inf_\pi J_\pi(x),\qquad J_\infty(x)=\lim_{N\to\infty}T^N(\bar J)(x).Jπ​(x)=N→∞lim​(Tμ0​​⋯TμN−1​​)(Jˉ)(x),J∗(x)=πinf​Jπ​(x),J∞​(x)=N→∞lim​TN(Jˉ)(x).

J∗J^*J∗ is the optimal value function and J∞J_\inftyJ∞​ the limit of the dynamic programming algorithm. A policy is optimal if Jπ=J∗J_\pi=J^*Jπ​=J∗.

Assumption I is Jˉ(x)≤H(x,u,Jˉ)\bar J(x)\le H(x,u,\bar J)Jˉ(x)≤H(x,u,Jˉ) for all xxx and u∈U(x)u\in U(x)u∈U(x). Assumption I.1 says that H(x,u,⋅)H(x,u,\cdot)H(x,u,⋅) commutes with limits of nondecreasing sequences above Jˉ\bar JJˉ. Assumption I.2 says there is α>0\alpha>0α>0 with H(x,u,J)≤H(x,u,J+re)≤H(x,u,J)+αrH(x,u,J)\le H(x,u,J+re)\le H(x,u,J)+\alpha rH(x,u,J)≤H(x,u,J+re)≤H(x,u,J)+αr for r>0r>0r>0 and J≥JˉJ\ge\bar JJ≥Jˉ, where e≡1e\equiv1e≡1. For the convergence analysis the paper introduces, for k≥1k\ge1k≥1, the sets Ck={(x,u,λ)∣u∈U(x), H[x,u,Tk−1(Jˉ)]≤λ}C_k=\{(x,u,\lambda)\mid u\in U(x),\ H[x,u,T^{k-1}(\bar J)]\le\lambda\}Ck​={(x,u,λ)∣u∈U(x), H[x,u,Tk−1(Jˉ)]≤λ} with λ\lambdaλ real, their projections P(Ck)P(C_k)P(Ck​) on (x,λ)(x,\lambda)(x,λ) through admissible uuu, and the closure P(Ck)‾\overline{P(C_k)}P(Ck​)​ obtained by adding limits of real sequences λn\lambda_nλn​ at fixed xxx.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 12

Let I, I.1, I.2 hold, let CCC be a Hausdorff topological space, and suppose there is kˉ\bar kkˉ such that Uk(x,λ)={u∈U(x)∣H[x,u,Tk(Jˉ)]≤λ}U_k(x,\lambda)=\{u\in U(x)\mid H[x,u,T^k(\bar J)]\le\lambda\}Uk​(x,λ)={u∈U(x)∣H[x,u,Tk(Jˉ)]≤λ} is compact for every xxx, real λ\lambdaλ and k≥kˉk\ge\bar kk≥kˉ. Then

P(⋂k≥1Ck)=⋂k≥1P(Ck)‾,J∞=T(J∞)=T(J∗)=J∗,P\Bigl(\bigcap_{k\ge1}C_k\Bigr)=\bigcap_{k\ge1}\overline{P(C_k)},\qquad J_\infty=T(J_\infty)=T(J^*)=J^*,P(k≥1⋂​Ck​)=k≥1⋂​P(Ck​)​,J∞​=T(J∞​)=T(J∗)=J∗,

and there exists an optimal stationary policy.

Milestones

In attack order: Proposition 2 (JN=TN(Jˉ)J_N=T^N(\bar J)JN​=TN(Jˉ) for the NNN-stage problem); Proposition 4 (ε\varepsilonε-optimal policies, stationary when α<1\alpha<1α<1); Proposition 5 (Bellman's equation J∗=T(J∗)J^*=T(J^*)J∗=T(J∗) and minimality of J∗J^*J∗ among TTT-excessive functions above Jˉ\bar JJˉ); Corollary 5.1 (the same for JμJ_\muJμ​); Proposition 7 ({μ∗,μ∗,… }\{\mu^*,\mu^*,\dots\}{μ∗,μ∗,…} is optimal iff Tμ∗(J∗)=T(J∗)T_{\mu^*}(J^*)=T(J^*)Tμ∗​(J∗)=T(J∗)); Proposition 10 (J∞≤T(J∞)≤T(J∗)=J∗J_\infty\le T(J_\infty)\le T(J^*)=J^*J∞​≤T(J∞​)≤T(J∗)=J∗, with equality throughout iff J∞=T(J∞)J_\infty=T(J_\infty)J∞​=T(J∞​)); Lemma 2 (P(Ck)‾=E[Tk(Jˉ)]\overline{P(C_k)}=E[T^k(\bar J)]P(Ck​)​=E[Tk(Jˉ)], the epigraph); Proposition 11 (convergence of value iteration is equivalent to interchanging projection and intersection); Lemma 3 (a function with compact real sublevel sets attains its minimum).

Significance

The result. Proposition 12 gives a checkable condition, compactness of sublevel sets of the one-stage costs, under which value iteration started at Jˉ\bar JJˉ converges to the optimal cost and an optimal stationary policy exists, in any model covered by the abstract framework: deterministic and stochastic control with nonnegative costs, minimax control, and problems with state constraints encoded by infinite costs. Without such a condition the algorithm can stall below J∗J^*J∗ even in one-dimensional deterministic problems. Propositions 5 and 7 are the abstract form of the classical Bellman equation and optimality criterion for positive-cost problems.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper. The platform's existing dynamic programming results are finite-state, real-valued and contraction-based; none covers extended-real costs, general state spaces, or the uniform increase regime. This mission would produce a machine-checked abstract DP layer over EReal in which the Bellman equation, the stationary-policy criterion and the convergence conditions are proved once for every model satisfying the assumptions. No machine-checked proof of these results is known.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for J∞=J∗J_\infty=J^*J∞​=J∗ interchanges a limit in NNN with an infimum over policies. Under Assumption I the iterates increase, and a limit of infima of an increasing family can be strictly smaller than the infimum of the limits; the paper's own example in Section 1 shows it. Monotone convergence arguments therefore do not apply. The paper converts the interchange into a statement about projections of the sets CkC_kCk​ and closes the gap with a compactness argument, which requires handling infinite values carefully: epigraphs are taken over real λ\lambdaλ only, and states where the value is +∞+\infty+∞ are treated separately. Proposition 4, on which Bellman's equation rests, needs a selection of nearly optimal policies state by state and a geometric control of the errors through I.2.

Formalization scope

Functions in FFF are S → EReal. Policies are sequences ℕ → Selector, where a selector is a function with μ(x)∈U(x)\mu(x)\in U(x)μ(x)∈U(x) for all xxx. The composition Tμ0⋯TμN−1T_{\mu_0}\cdots T_{\mu_{N-1}}Tμ0​​⋯TμN−1​​ applies TμN−1T_{\mu_{N-1}}TμN−1​​ first. JπJ_\piJπ​ and J∞J_\inftyJ∞​ are limUnder atTop of their defining sequences. Every statement assumes Assumption I, under which these sequences are nondecreasing and the limits exist. TTT takes the infimum over U(x)U(x)U(x) only and J∗J^*J∗ over admissible policies only. Both SSS and each U(x)U(x)U(x) are nonempty. λ\lambdaλ ranges over R\mathbb RR, and the closure  ⋅ ‾\overline{\,\cdot\,}⋅ is the sequential closure in λ\lambdaλ at fixed xxx, not a topological closure on S×RS\times\mathbb RS×R. The sets CkC_kCk​ are used only for k≥1k\ge1k≥1. I.2 is parameterized by its scalar α\alphaα. Proposition 4's second part refers to the α\alphaα for which I.2 is assumed.

Repairs of the page. Lemma 3 is false as printed. On N\mathbb NN with the cofinite topology every subset is compact, yet f(n)=−nf(n)=-nf(n)=−n has no minimum. It also fails for U=∅U=\emptysetU=∅. The mission states Lemma 3 for a Hausdorff space CCC and nonempty UUU, and Proposition 12 for a Hausdorff control space. Proposition 12 is also false as printed: with S={0}S=\{0\}S={0}, C=U(0)=NC=U(0)=\mathbb NC=U(0)=N cofinite, Jˉ(0)=0\bar J(0)=0Jˉ(0)=0 and H(0,u,J)=J(0)+1/(u+1)H(0,u,J)=J(0)+1/(u+1)H(0,u,J)=J(0)+1/(u+1), all hypotheses hold but no stationary policy is optimal and (70) fails. Proposition 11(b)'s parenthetical "(equivalently there exists an optimal stationary policy)" holds only together with J∞=J∗J_\infty=J^*J∞​=J∗ (the paper cites an example with an optimal stationary policy and J∞≠J∗J_\infty\neq J^*J∞​=J∗). It is stated in that joint form, never as an equivalence between condition (68) and the bare existence of an optimal stationary policy.

Trivializing readings ruled out. An empty constraint set would make T≡+∞T\equiv+\inftyT≡+∞ and the policy set empty, so every Bellman identity would hold trivially. The model therefore requires U(x)≠∅U(x)\neq\emptysetU(x)=∅. The goal's three conclusions, (70), the chain of equalities and the optimal stationary policy, are all required, so a formalization that states only one of them is not the goal.

Needed infrastructure: monotone limits in EReal, infima over sets, and compactness in Hausdorff spaces (Mathlib's Cantor intersection theorem). The definitions (model, assumptions, epigraph sets) can be reused for the companion mission under Assumption D and for later abstract DP developments. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are reusable lemmas on monotone EReal sequences.

Selected references

  • D. P. Bertsekas, Monotone Mappings with Application in Dynamic Programming, SIAM J. Control Optim. 15(3), 438–464, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1137/0315031
  • R. E. Strauch, Negative Dynamic Programming, Ann. Math. Statist. 37(4), 871–890, 1966. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177699369
  • D. P. Bertsekas and S. E. Shreve, Stochastic Optimal Control: The Discrete-Time Case, Academic Press, 1978. http://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/soc.html
  • D. P. Bertsekas, Abstract Dynamic Programming, 3rd ed., Athena Scientific, 2022. http://web.mit.edu/dimitrib/www/abstractdp.html
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Convex OptimizationLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

On Polyhedral Approximations of the Second-Order Cone I: A Compact Polyhedral Approximation of the Lorentz ConeResearch Paper

Motivation

Conic quadratic programs (second-order cone programs) minimize a linear objective subject to linear constraints and constraints of the form ∥Aℓx−bℓ∥2≤cℓTx−dℓ\|A_\ell x-b_\ell\|_2\le c_\ell^Tx-d_\ell∥Aℓ​x−bℓ​∥2​≤cℓT​x−dℓ​. They model robust linear programs with ellipsoidal uncertainty, truss topology design, contact problems with Coulomb friction, and convex quadratically constrained quadratic programs. In theory they are no harder than linear programs of the same size; in practice, linear programming software handles far larger instances than conic quadratic solvers did at the time of writing (Ben-Tal & Nemirovski 2001, pp. 193–195). This raises a question about geometry rather than algorithms: can a second-order cone be replaced by a polyhedral cone of moderate size without losing much accuracy?

The obvious answer — circumscribe the cone by a polyhedral cone with many facets — fails: the number of facets must grow exponentially in the dimension, even for constant accuracy. Ben-Tal and Nemirovski showed that auxiliary variables change the picture completely: a projection of a polyhedral cone can approximate the Lorentz cone with size only O(kln⁡(1/ε))O(k\ln(1/\varepsilon))O(kln(1/ε)). The construction is now standard; it underlies, for instance, the lifted linear-programming branch-and-bound algorithm for mixed-integer conic quadratic programs of Vielma, Ahmed & Nemhauser 2008.

Setting

For y∈Rky\in\mathbb R^ky∈Rk let ∥y∥2=y12+⋯+yk2\|y\|_2=\sqrt{y_1^2+\dots+y_k^2}∥y∥2​=y12​+⋯+yk2​​. The (k+1)(k+1)(k+1)-dimensional Lorentz cone is

Lk={(y,t)∈Rk×R∣t≥∥y∥2}.L^k=\{(y,t)\in\mathbb R^k\times\mathbb R\mid t\ge\|y\|_2\}.Lk={(y,t)∈Rk×R∣t≥∥y∥2​}.

Fix ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0. A polyhedral ε\varepsilonε-approximation of LkL^kLk is a linear map

Π(y,t,u):Rk×R×Rp→Rq\Pi(y,t,u):\mathbb R^k\times\mathbb R\times\mathbb R^{p}\to\mathbb R^{q}Π(y,t,u):Rk×R×Rp→Rq

such that

  1. if (y,t)∈Lk(y,t)\in L^k(y,t)∈Lk, there is u∈Rpu\in\mathbb R^pu∈Rp with Π(y,t,u)≥0\Pi(y,t,u)\ge0Π(y,t,u)≥0 (componentwise);
  2. if Π(y,t,u)≥0\Pi(y,t,u)\ge0Π(y,t,u)≥0 for some uuu, then ∥y∥2≤(1+ε)t\|y\|_2\le(1+\varepsilon)t∥y∥2​≤(1+ε)t.

Equivalently, the polyhedral cone {(y,t,u)∣Π(y,t,u)≥0}\{(y,t,u)\mid\Pi(y,t,u)\ge0\}{(y,t,u)∣Π(y,t,u)≥0} projects onto a cone lying between LkL^kLk and its (1+ε)(1+\varepsilon)(1+ε)-extension. The size of the approximation is p+qp+qp+q: the number of auxiliary variables plus the number of linear inequalities (an equation counts as two).

The construction in the paper uses a tower of variables: for k=2θk=2^\thetak=2θ, the coordinates y1,…,yky_1,\dots,y_ky1​,…,yk​ form generation 000, each consecutive pair of generation ℓ−1\ell-1ℓ−1 has a successor in generation ℓ\ellℓ (yiℓy_i^\ellyiℓ​ has parents y2i−1ℓ−1,y2iℓ−1y_{2i-1}^{\ell-1},y_{2i}^{\ell-1}y2i−1ℓ−1​,y2iℓ−1​), and the single variable of generation θ\thetaθ is ttt. It also uses an explicit linear system (8) in variables ξj,ηj\xi^j,\eta^jξj,ηj, j=0,…,νj=0,\dots,\nuj=0,…,ν, with trigonometric coefficients cos⁡(π/2j+1)\cos(\pi/2^{j+1})cos(π/2j+1), sin⁡(π/2j+1)\sin(\pi/2^{j+1})sin(π/2j+1), tan⁡(π/2ν+1)\tan(\pi/2^{\nu+1})tan(π/2ν+1), whose accuracy is δ(ν)=1/cos⁡(π/2ν+1)−1\delta(\nu)=1/\cos(\pi/2^{\nu+1})-1δ(ν)=1/cos(π/2ν+1)−1.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

There is an absolute constant CCC such that for every positive integer kkk and every ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon\in(0,1]ε∈(0,1], LkL^kLk admits a polyhedral ε\varepsilonε-approximation with

pk+qk≤C kln⁡2ε.p_k+q_k\le C\,k\ln\frac{2}{\varepsilon}.pk​+qk​≤Cklnε2​.

The constant is not fixed; the goal asserts only the order of growth, which is what the paper claims.

Milestones

  1. §2, Eq. (5). For k=2θk=2^\thetak=2θ, θ≥1\theta\ge1θ≥1: (y,t)(y,t)(y,t) extends to a tower solving [y2i−1ℓ−1]2+[y2iℓ−1]2≤yiℓ\sqrt{[y_{2i-1}^{\ell-1}]^2+[y_{2i}^{\ell-1}]^2}\le y_i^\ell[y2i−1ℓ−1​]2+[y2iℓ−1​]2​≤yiℓ​ for all i,ℓi,\elli,ℓ if and only if ∥y∥2≤t\|y\|_2\le t∥y∥2​≤t.
  2. §2, Eqs. (6)–(7). Placing polyhedral εℓ\varepsilon_\ellεℓ​-approximations of L2L^2L2 on every level of the tower yields a polyhedral approximation of LkL^kLk with 1+ε=∏ℓ=1θ(1+εℓ)1+\varepsilon=\prod_{\ell=1}^\theta(1+\varepsilon_\ell)1+ε=∏ℓ=1θ​(1+εℓ​).
  3. Proposition 2.1 (i), (ii) and Eq. (9). System (8) is a polyhedral δ(ν)\delta(\nu)δ(ν)-approximation of L2L^2L2, and δ(ν)=O(4−ν)\delta(\nu)=O(4^{-\nu})δ(ν)=O(4−ν).
  4. Proof of Theorem 1.1, system (10), property 3. System (8) with parameter νℓ\nu_\ellνℓ​ on level ℓ\ellℓ of the tower approximates L2θL^{2^\theta}L2θ with quality β=∏ℓ=1θ1/cos⁡(π/2νℓ+1)−1\beta=\prod_{\ell=1}^\theta 1/\cos(\pi/2^{\nu_\ell+1})-1β=∏ℓ=1θ​1/cos(π/2νℓ​+1)−1.
  5. Proof of Theorem 1.1, choice of νℓ\nu_\ellνℓ​. With νℓ=⌊c ℓln⁡(2/ε)⌋\nu_\ell=\lfloor c\,\ell\ln(2/\varepsilon)\rfloorνℓ​=⌊cℓln(2/ε)⌋: β≤ε\beta\le\varepsilonβ≤ε and ∑ℓ2θ−ℓνℓ≤C 2θln⁡(2/ε)\sum_\ell 2^{\theta-\ell}\nu_\ell\le C\,2^\theta\ln(2/\varepsilon)∑ℓ​2θ−ℓνℓ​≤C2θln(2/ε).

Significance

The theorem shows that conic quadratic constraints are, up to a factor logarithmic in the accuracy, no more expensive to express as linear constraints than they are in their native form. Consequences listed in the paper include approximating convex quadratically constrained quadratic programs, robust counterparts of linear programs with ellipsoidal uncertainty, and problems with low-dimensional cones (Coulomb friction, k≤3k\le3k≤3; truss design, k≤2k\le2k≤2) by linear programs of comparable size. Together with the matching lower bound of §3 of the same paper (a separate mission of this series), it pins down the size of the best polyhedral approximation up to constants. The recursive halving of dimensions through the tower of 3-dimensional cones is a reusable device for other rotation-invariant cones.

The result is proved in the paper; as far as is known it has not been machine-checked. This mission produces a formal proof of the construction, including the trigonometric estimate δ(ν)=O(4−ν)\delta(\nu)=O(4^{-\nu})δ(ν)=O(4−ν) and the explicit linear encoding with its size count. Explicit values of the absolute constants are welcome as additional results.

Difficulty

The planar estimate is the core. Part (ii) of Proposition 2.1 must hold for every solution of the inequality system (8), not only for the solution one would write down for a given point of L2L^2L2; an argument that tracks only the intended solution proves part (i) and nothing about part (ii). The accuracy must also come out as 1/cos⁡(π/2ν+1)−11/\cos(\pi/2^{\nu+1})-11/cos(π/2ν+1)−1, geometric in ν\nuν; a bound that decays only polynomially in ν\nuν would give size poly(1/ε)\mathrm{poly}(1/\varepsilon)poly(1/ε) instead of ln⁡(1/ε)\ln(1/\varepsilon)ln(1/ε). The naive idea of approximating LkL^kLk directly by tangent hyperplanes is ruled out by the exponential facet count mentioned above; the auxiliary variables are indispensable. The second difficulty is bookkeeping: packaging k−1k-1k−1 copies of system (8) on a tower of depth θ=log⁡2k\theta=\log_2 kθ=log2​k into a single linear map, counting its variables and inequalities exactly, handling kkk that is not a power of two, and summing the accuracies so that the total size is O(kln⁡(2/ε))O(k\ln(2/\varepsilon))O(kln(2/ε)) rather than O(kln⁡kln⁡(1/ε))O(k\ln k\ln(1/\varepsilon))O(klnkln(1/ε)).

Formalization scope

  • Vectors of Rk\mathbb R^kRk are Fin k → ℝ. The norm ∥y∥2\|y\|_2∥y∥2​ is written out as eucNorm y = Real.sqrt (∑ i, y i ^ 2); the norm Mathlib attaches to Fin k → ℝ is the sup norm, under which the cone would be polyhedral and the theorem trivial.
  • A polyhedral approximation is an R\mathbb RR-linear map (Fin k → ℝ) × ℝ × (Fin p → ℝ) →ₗ[ℝ] (Fin q → ℝ) and ≥0\ge0≥0 is the componentwise order. Linearity is essential: with an arbitrary map, Π(y,t)=t−∥y∥2\Pi(y,t)=t-\|y\|_2Π(y,t)=t−∥y∥2​ would be an exact approximation with p=0p=0p=0, q=1q=1q=1. Affine maps are not allowed either; the paper's approximations are homogeneous.
  • The paper's absolute constants O(1)O(1)O(1) are existential constants quantified before kkk, ε\varepsilonε and θ\thetaθ. The goal requires k≥1k\ge1k≥1 and ε∈(0,1]\varepsilon\in(0,1]ε∈(0,1], as in the paper; ln⁡\lnln is Real.log.
  • System (8) and system (10) are stated as propositions with the absolute values written out; their parameters ν\nuν, νℓ\nu_\ellνℓ​ are required to be positive integers, as in the paper (at ν=0\nu=0ν=0 the coefficient tan⁡(π/2)\tan(\pi/2)tan(π/2) would be evaluated as 000 by Lean).
  • Tower variables are indexed Y ℓ i with 0-based i, so the parents of Y ℓ i are Y (ℓ-1) (2i) and Y (ℓ-1) (2i+1); the milestones on (6)–(7) and (10) are stated on solution sets rather than on an explicit linear map. The size counts of (10) (properties 1–2) are not separate milestones; the arithmetic milestone on νℓ\nu_\ellνℓ​ records the bound on ∑ℓ2θ−ℓνℓ\sum_\ell 2^{\theta-\ell}\nu_\ell∑ℓ​2θ−ℓνℓ​ to which they reduce.
  • δ(ν)=O(1/4ν)\delta(\nu)=O(1/4^\nu)δ(ν)=O(1/4ν) is stated as ∃C>0, ∀ν≥1, δ(ν)≤C/4ν\exists C>0,\ \forall\nu\ge1,\ \delta(\nu)\le C/4^\nu∃C>0, ∀ν≥1, δ(ν)≤C/4ν.

A complete development needs: elementary trigonometry of π/2j\pi/2^{j}π/2j (available in Mathlib), rotations in the plane, finite products and sums over {1,…,θ}\{1,\dots,\theta\}{1,…,θ}, and a way to assemble many small linear systems into one linear map with an exact count of rows and columns. The last piece, and the tower of variables with the reduction from arbitrary kkk to a power of two, are reusable for other lifted polyhedral approximations. Contributions of any milestone, of explicit linear encodings of (8) and (10), and of the extension from k=2θk=2^\thetak=2θ to all kkk are welcome.

Selected references

  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, On Polyhedral Approximations of the Second-Order Cone, Mathematics of Operations Research 26(2):193–205, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.26.2.193.10561
  • J. P. Vielma, S. Ahmed and G. L. Nemhauser, A lifted linear programming branch-and-bound algorithm for mixed-integer conic quadratic programs, INFORMS Journal on Computing 20(3):438–450, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/ijoc.1070.0256
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Mathematics of Operations Research 23(4):769–805, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.23.4.769
  • A. Ben-Tal and A. Nemirovski, Lectures on Modern Convex Optimization, SIAM, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898718829
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities I: Beale's Simplex Method for a Convex Quadratic Function TerminatesResearch Paper

Motivation

Quadratic programming, the minimization of a convex quadratic function subject to linear constraints, is the simplest nonlinear extension of linear programming. It arises in least-squares estimation with sign constraints, in portfolio selection, and as the subproblem solved at each iteration of Newton-type methods for general smooth convex programs. E. M. L. Beale's 1955 paper (DOI 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1955.tb00191.x) gave one of the first finite algorithms for it by extending Dantzig's simplex method: the method keeps the simplex tableau and adds free variables, linear functions of the original variables with no sign restriction, along which the quadratic stops decreasing.

Timeline:

  • 1951: Dantzig publishes the simplex method for linear programming.
  • 1952: Charnes introduces ε-perturbations to resolve degeneracy in the simplex method.
  • 1955: Beale extends the simplex method to convex quadratic objectives and proves that the iteration terminates (§3 of the paper; the result formalized here).
  • 1959: Beale's "On quadratic programming" (Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 6) develops the method further; Wolfe's simplex method for quadratic programming (Econometrica 27) appears the same year.

Setting

There are nnn restricted variables xj≥0x_j \ge 0xj​≥0 satisfying mmm linearly independent linear equations, and a convex quadratic objective CCC. The iteration keeps N=n−mN = n - mN=n−m nonbasic variables z1,…,zNz_1, \dots, z_Nz1​,…,zN​, each either a restricted variable or a free variable, and writes every restricted variable as an affine function of them:

xh=ah0+∑l=1Nahlzl.(2.3)x_h = a_{h0} + \sum_{l=1}^{N} a_{hl} z_l. \qquad (2.3)xh​=ah0​+l=1∑N​ahl​zl​.(2.3)

A restricted variable that is not nonbasic is basic. The associated solution sets every zl=0z_l = 0zl​=0, so xh=ah0x_h = a_{h0}xh​=ah0​. The objective is written as

C=∑k=0N∑l=0Ncklzkzl,z0=1,(3.1)C = \sum_{k=0}^{N} \sum_{l=0}^{N} c_{kl} z_k z_l, \qquad z_0 = 1, \qquad (3.1)C=k=0∑N​l=0∑N​ckl​zk​zl​,z0​=1,(3.1)

with (ckl)(c_{kl})(ckl​) symmetric. Thus c00c_{00}c00​ is the value of CCC at the associated solution and 2ck02c_{k0}2ck0​ is its linear coefficient in zkz_kzk​. The number of nonbasic free variables is sss.

One step chooses a nonbasic zpz_pzp​ that can profitably be altered: a free one with cp0≠0c_{p0} \ne 0cp0​=0 if there is one, otherwise a restricted one with cp0<0c_{p0} < 0cp0​<0. It orients zpz_pzp​ so that it is to be increased, and increases it from 000. It stops at the first of two events. Either a basic variable xqx_qxq​ reaches 000 (the ratio test (2.4)), and then xqx_qxq​ becomes nonbasic in place of zpz_pzp​. Or CCC stops decreasing where the free variable ur=cp0+∑lcplzlu_r = c_{p0} + \sum_l c_{pl} z_lur​=cp0​+∑l​cpl​zl​ vanishes (3.2), and then uru_rur​ becomes nonbasic in place of zpz_pzp​. The coefficients are then transformed by substituting for zpz_pzp​ (eqs. (3.4)–(3.6)). CCC is in standard form when it has no linear term in any free variable.

Formalization targets

Goal: the iteration terminates

From a tableau with symmetric (ckl)(c_{kl})(ckl​), positive semidefinite quadratic block (ckl)k,l≥1(c_{kl})_{k,l \ge 1}(ckl​)k,l≥1​ and consistent labels, there is no infinite run

T0→T1→T2→⋯T_0 \to T_1 \to T_2 \to \cdotsT0​→T1​→T2​→⋯

of steps along which every basic variable stays strictly positive in the associated solution. No bound on the number of steps is claimed, as in the paper.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (3.7): the closed form of the transformed matrix, its symmetry, and the invariance ∑cklzkzl=∑ckl′′zk′zl′\sum c_{kl} z_k z_l = \sum c''_{kl} z'_k z'_l∑ckl​zk​zl​=∑ckl′′​zk′​zl′​.
  2. Lemma 1: when a free variable enters, its row and column vanish off the diagonal, the index 000 included.
  3. Lemma 2: a slot whose row and column vanish off the diagonal keeps this property when another free variable enters.
  4. The optimality criterion (p. 175): if no nonbasic variable can profitably be altered and CCC is convex, then c00c_{00}c00​ is the minimum over the feasible region.
  5. In standard form, c00≤C(z)c_{00} \le C(z)c00​≤C(z) for every zzz with the restricted nonbasic variables at 000.
  6. CCC decreases at every step: c00′<c00c'_{00} < c_{00}c00′​<c00​.
  7. A finite run never returns to a standard form with the same set of restricted nonbasic variables.
  8. If CCC is not in standard form and s=s0s = s_0s=s0​, then within s0s_0s0​ steps either standard form is reached or sss drops, and sss never exceeds s0s_0s0​ on the way.

Significance

The theorem makes Beale's method an algorithm: a finite procedure that ends either at an optimal tableau (milestone 4) or with a ray along which CCC decreases without bound. This finiteness is what later active-set methods for quadratic programming inherit.

The result was proved in 1955. What remains is to formalize it: a machine-checked account of a simplex-type method whose state includes variables that are created during the run and later discarded. Mathlib has no simplex-type algorithm for quadratic programming, and no machine-checked proof of this theorem is known. The pivot algebra (3.4)–(3.7) and the tableau model are reusable for other pivoting methods for quadratic programs.

Difficulty

The argument for linear programming does not carry over. There, the objective strictly decreases and a basis is a subset of a finite set of columns, so no basis repeats. Here each step may create a new free variable, and nothing bounds the number of distinct free variables that can occur. Tableaux are therefore not drawn from a finite set, and a strictly decreasing objective alone does not give termination. The paper states this itself: "there is no obvious limit to the number of free variables that may be involved". The difficulty is to bound the number of steps between returns to a well-behaved tableau, and this depends both on the rule that free variables are chosen first and on how the coefficient matrix evolves under repeated pivots.

Formalization scope

  • Representation. The nonbasic variables occupy fixed slots Fin (N+1). Slot 0 is z0=1z_0 = 1z0​=1; the nonbasic slot k : Fin N is index k.succ. A pivot stores the new nonbasic variable in the slot of the variable it replaces, so the paper's index qqq in (3.4)–(3.7) is that slot. The tableau holds the labels (restricted xjx_jxj​ or free), the rows of all nnn restricted variables (a nonbasic one has the unit row), and (ckl)(c_{kl})(ckl​). Free variables carry no row, as in the paper.
  • The pivot. pivotC is computed literally from (3.5) and then (3.6). Rows are transformed by the same substitution, as the paper states.
  • The step. The step is a relation. It allows any profitable choice of zpz_pzp​ subject to the free-first rule, and at a tie either outcome. No pricing rule is fixed, since the paper fixes none.
  • Convexity. Convexity of CCC is the symmetry of (ckl)(c_{kl})(ckl​) plus positive semidefiniteness of the block (ckl)k,l≥1(c_{kl})_{k,l \ge 1}(ckl​)k,l≥1​, assumed on the initial tableau.
  • Added hypothesis. The one hypothesis not on the page is that every basic restricted variable is strictly positive in the associated solution of every tableau of the run. It replaces Charnes's ε-perturbations, by which the paper ensures "the ah0a_{h0}ah0​ are always positive, and not zero". Positivity is required of basic variables only; nonbasic variables are 000 in the associated solution.
  • Out of scope. The link to the original equations (2.1) and phase 1 (artificial variables, the M-method) are not formalized: the iteration starts from a tableau already in the form (2.3).
  • Ruling out a trivial goal. A step relation that never fires, or a positivity hypothesis that no tableau can meet after a step, would make the goal trivially true. A sorry-free check exhibits a convex instance with consistent labels, a step, and positive basic variables before and after it.

Contributions are welcome on every milestone. The algebraic milestones 1–3 are self-contained.

Selected references

  • E. M. L. Beale, On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 17(2):173–184, 1955. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1955.tb00191.x
  • A. Charnes, Optimality and Degeneracy in Linear Programming, Econometrica 20(2):160–170, 1952. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907845
  • G. B. Dantzig, Maximization of a Linear Function of Variables Subject to Linear Inequalities, in T. C. Koopmans (ed.), Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, Wiley, 1951, pp. 339–347.
  • E. M. L. Beale, On Quadratic Programming, Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 6(3):227–243, 1959. https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.3800060305
  • P. Wolfe, The Simplex Method for Quadratic Programming, Econometrica 27(3):382–398, 1959. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909468
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Machine LearningOptimizationProbability+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector V: Estimation, Prediction and Sparsity Bounds for the LassoResearch Paper

Motivation

In a linear regression with many more candidate variables than observations, least squares is not defined uniquely and does not estimate anything useful. The Lasso (Tibshirani, 1996) replaces it by an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-penalised least-squares problem, which is convex, can be solved at scale, and returns sparse coefficient vectors. The question that a statistician, a signal-processing engineer or an operations researcher fitting a sparse model must answer before trusting it is quantitative: how far is the Lasso estimate from the true coefficient vector, how well does it predict, and how many variables does it select, as functions of the sample size nnn, the number of variables MMM and the sparsity sss of the truth?

Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 2009) answered this under the restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition, which they introduced, with explicit constants and an explicit failure probability. Their Theorem 7.2, the goal of this mission, is a standard reference result of high-dimensional statistics and a model for the Lasso analyses in the textbooks of Bühlmann and van de Geer (2011) and Wainwright (2019).

Timeline, restricted to what each work proved:

  • 2007: Candès and Tao (arXiv:math/0506081) prove ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bounds for the Dantzig selector under a uniform uncertainty principle.
  • 2007: Bunea, Tsybakov and Wegkamp (doi:10.1214/07-EJS008) prove sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso under mutual-coherence conditions; Lemma B.1 of the present paper is essentially their Lemma 1.
  • 2008/2009: Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov prove Theorem 7.2 under RE(s,3)(s,3)(s,3) and RE(s,m,3)(s,m,3)(s,m,3), conditions weaker than those of the previous works.

Setting

A deterministic design matrix X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M with columns x(1),…,x(M)x_{(1)},\dots,x_{(M)}x(1)​,…,x(M)​ is observed together with

y=Xβ∗+w,y=X\beta^*+w,y=Xβ∗+w,

where β∗∈RM\beta^*\in\mathbb R^Mβ∗∈RM is unknown and w=(W1,…,Wn)w=(W_1,\dots,W_n)w=(W1​,…,Wn​) has independent N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) entries with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. Throughout, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, M≥2M\ge2M≥2, and every diagonal entry of the Gram matrix Ψn=X⊤X/n\Psi_n=X^\top X/nΨn​=X⊤X/n equals 111.

For δ∈RM\delta\in\mathbb R^Mδ∈RM write ∣δ∣p=(∑j∣δj∣p)1/p|\delta|_p=(\sum_j|\delta_j|^p)^{1/p}∣δ∣p​=(∑j​∣δj​∣p)1/p, J(δ)={j:δj≠0}J(\delta)=\{j:\delta_j\ne0\}J(δ)={j:δj​=0} for the support, M(δ)=∣J(δ)∣\mathcal M(\delta)=|J(\delta)|M(δ)=∣J(δ)∣ for the sparsity, and δJ\delta_JδJ​ for the vector that agrees with δ\deltaδ on JJJ and vanishes off JJJ. The largest eigenvalue of Ψn\Psi_nΨn​ is ϕmax⁡\phi_{\max}ϕmax​.

The Lasso estimator with tuning parameter r>0r>0r>0 is any minimiser

β^L∈arg⁡min⁡β∈RM{1n∣y−Xβ∣22+2r∣β∣1}.\hat\beta_L\in\arg\min_{\beta\in\mathbb R^M}\Big\{\frac1n|y-X\beta|_2^2+2r|\beta|_1\Big\}.β^​L​∈argβ∈RMmin​{n1​∣y−Xβ∣22​+2r∣β∣1​}.

Minimisers exist but need not be unique.

Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) (1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M, c0>0c_0>0c0​>0) asks that

κ(s,c0)=min⁡∣J0∣≤s min⁡δ≠0, ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1∣Xδ∣2n ∣δJ0∣2>0.\kappa(s,c_0)=\min_{|J_0|\le s}\ \min_{\delta\ne0,\ |\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1}\frac{|X\delta|_2}{\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2}>0 .κ(s,c0​)=∣J0​∣≤smin​ δ=0, ∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​min​n​∣δJ0​​∣2​∣Xδ∣2​​>0.

Assumption RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) (1≤s≤M/21\le s\le M/21≤s≤M/2, m≥sm\ge sm≥s, s+m≤Ms+m\le Ms+m≤M) is the same with ∣δJ01∣2|\delta_{J_{01}}|_2∣δJ01​​∣2​ in the denominator, where J01=J0∪J1J_{01}=J_0\cup J_1J01​=J0​∪J1​ and J1J_1J1​ collects the mmm largest in absolute value coordinates of δ\deltaδ outside J0J_0J0​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.2

Let M(β∗)≤s\mathcal M(\beta^*)\le sM(β∗)≤s, let RE(s,3)(s,3)(s,3) hold, and let r=Aσlog⁡M/nr=A\sigma\sqrt{\log M/n}r=AσlogM/n​ with A>22A>2\sqrt2A>22​. With probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8, every Lasso solution satisfies

∣β^L−β∗∣1≤16Aκ2(s,3)σslog⁡Mn,∣X(β^L−β∗)∣22≤16A2κ2(s,3)σ2slog⁡M,M(β^L)≤64ϕmax⁡κ2(s,3)s,|\hat\beta_L-\beta^*|_1\le\frac{16A}{\kappa^2(s,3)}\sigma s\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}},\qquad |X(\hat\beta_L-\beta^*)|_2^2\le\frac{16A^2}{\kappa^2(s,3)}\sigma^2s\log M,\qquad \mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\le\frac{64\phi_{\max}}{\kappa^2(s,3)}s,∣β^​L​−β∗∣1​≤κ2(s,3)16A​σsnlogM​​,∣X(β^​L​−β∗)∣22​≤κ2(s,3)16A2​σ2slogM,M(β^​L​)≤κ2(s,3)64ϕmax​​s,

and, if RE(s,m,3)(s,m,3)(s,m,3) holds, on the same event and for all 1<p≤21<p\le21<p≤2,

∣β^L−β∗∣pp≤16{1+3sm}2(p−1)s(Aσκ2(s,m,3)log⁡Mn)p.|\hat\beta_L-\beta^*|_p^p\le16\Big\{1+3\sqrt{\tfrac sm}\Big\}^{2(p-1)}s\Big(\frac{A\sigma}{\kappa^2(s,m,3)}\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}}\Big)^p .∣β^​L​−β∗∣pp​≤16{1+3ms​​}2(p−1)s(κ2(s,m,3)Aσ​nlogM​​)p.

Milestones

In the order in which the paper's proof uses them:

  1. (B.4): the noise event A=⋂j{2∣1nx(j)⊤w∣≤r}\mathcal A=\bigcap_j\{2|\tfrac1n x_{(j)}^\top w|\le r\}A=⋂j​{2∣n1​x(j)⊤​w∣≤r} has P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8\mathbb P(\mathcal A^c)\le M^{1-A^2/8}P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8.
  2. (B.6): the optimality conditions of the Lasso.
  3. Lemma B.1 (Section 7 case): the basic inequality (B.1) for all β\betaβ, the residual bound (B.2) and the sparsity bound M(β^L)≤4ϕmax⁡∥fβ^L−f∥n2/r2\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\le4\phi_{\max}\|f_{\hat\beta_L}-f\|_n^2/r^2M(β^​L​)≤4ϕmax​∥fβ^​L​​−f∥n2​/r2 (B.3).
  4. Corollary B.2: the error δ=β^L−β\delta=\hat\beta_L-\betaδ=β^​L​−β lies in the cone ∣δJ0c∣1≤3∣δJ0∣1|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le3|\delta_{J_0}|_1∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤3∣δJ0​​∣1​.
  5. (B.30)–(B.31): on A\mathcal AA, 1n∣Xδ∣22≤16r2s/κ2\frac1n|X\delta|_2^2\le16r^2s/\kappa^2n1​∣Xδ∣22​≤16r2s/κ2 and ∣δJ0∣2≤4rs/κ2|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le4r\sqrt s/\kappa^2∣δJ0​​∣2​≤4rs​/κ2.
  6. (B.27) and (B.28) with c0=3c_0=3c0​=3: ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ norms of a cone vector.
  7. The ℓp\ell_pℓp​ interpolation ∑ajp≤b12−pb2p−1\sum a_j^p\le b_1^{2-p}b_2^{p-1}∑ajp​≤b12−p​b2p−1​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.2 gives, for fixed nnn and MMM rather than asymptotically, the rate slog⁡M/ns\log M/nslogM/n for the prediction loss and slog⁡M/ns\sqrt{\log M/n}slogM/n​ for the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ loss of the Lasso, under a condition on the design only (RE), with no assumption on how MMM compares with nnn. The dependence on MMM is only logarithmic, which is what makes the Lasso usable when M≫nM\gg nM≫n. Bound (7.9) shows that the Lasso selects at most a constant multiple of sss variables, and (7.10) covers every ℓp\ell_pℓp​ loss between ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​. Together with Theorem 7.1 for the Dantzig selector, the result shows that the two estimators have the same rates.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper. As far as a search of the platform shows, there is no machine-checked proof of a probabilistic Lasso rate. The closest platform statement, HighDimStat.SparseLinear.lasso_l2_error_bound (Wainwright, Theorem 7.13(a)), is deterministic, assumes a lower bound on the regularisation parameter in place of Gaussian noise, uses a restricted eigenvalue condition over the cone of one fixed support, and concludes an ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bound with a different constant. A formal proof of Theorem 7.2 would supply the Gaussian maximal inequality, the Lasso optimality conditions, and the cone and interpolation inequalities as reusable lemmas.

Difficulty

Each step is short on paper, and none of the steps is deep. The main work is in three places. First, the probability: the event on which the deterministic argument runs involves all MMM correlations 1nx(j)⊤w\frac1n x_{(j)}^\top wn1​x(j)⊤​w at once, and its probability must be bounded by exactly M1−A2/8M^{1-A^2/8}M1−A2/8, which requires the law of a linear combination of independent Gaussians and a sharp Gaussian tail estimate, not a generic concentration bound with unspecified constants. Second, the Lasso is defined only through its minimising property, while the sparsity bound (7.9) is a statement about the number of non-zero coordinates of a minimiser of a non-differentiable objective; the characterisation (B.6) of minimisers is not in Mathlib. Third, (7.10) involves two restricted eigenvalue constants, a ranking of coordinates with possible ties, and real exponents, and every constant has to come out exactly.

The obvious idea of proving (7.7)–(7.10) for one fixed minimiser does not suffice: the statement quantifies over every minimiser on a single event.

Formalization scope

The design XXX is a Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ; vectors are functions Fin M → ℝ. The noise is a family W : Fin n → Ω → ℝ of independent, measurable random variables with law gaussianReal 0 σ² on a probability space, and y(ω)=Xβ∗+W(ω)y(\omega)=X\beta^*+W(\omega)y(ω)=Xβ∗+W(ω). The probabilistic conclusion is one measurable event EEE with P(E)≥1−M1−A2/8\mathbb P(E)\ge1-M^{1-A^2/8}P(E)≥1−M1−A2/8 on which every minimiser of (7.2) satisfies all bounds; the event does not depend on the minimiser, on mmm or on ppp. log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm.

RE(s,3)(s,3)(s,3) and RE(s,m,3)(s,m,3)(s,m,3) are stated through witnesses: a predicate "κn∣δJ0∣2≤∣Xδ∣2\kappa\sqrt n|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le|X\delta|_2κn​∣δJ0​​∣2​≤∣Xδ∣2​ for every admissible J0J_0J0​ and δ\deltaδ", and the theorem holds for every witness κ>0\kappa>0κ>0. Because the paper's κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is an attained minimum, every witness is at most it and the bounds decrease in κ\kappaκ, so this is equivalent to the printed statement. The assumption quantifies over every J0J_0J0​ with ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s, as on page 7, not only over the support of β∗\beta^*β∗. ϕmax⁡\phi_{\max}ϕmax​ is the supremum of 1n∣Xx∣22\frac1n|Xx|_2^2n1​∣Xx∣22​ over unit vectors xxx. Lemma B.1 is stated in its Section-7 specialisation (unit column norms, f=Xβ∗f=X\beta^*f=Xβ∗), the form used in the proof of Theorem 7.2; (B.28) is stated for every c0>0c_0>0c0​>0 and (B.27) likewise, since the paper writes them with c0=1c_0=1c0​=1 and invokes them with c0=3c_0=3c0​=3. The printed Theorem 7.2 needs no correction; all four constants were checked against the proof.

A formalization in which the noise is not Gaussian, the Lasso predicate can be vacuous, the RE condition is imposed only on the support of β∗\beta^*β∗, or the probability is that of a non-measurable set, is not this theorem and is ruled out by the statement.

Needed infrastructure: Gaussian tail bounds and the law of a linear combination of independent Gaussians (largely in Mathlib), subdifferential calculus for ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-penalised least squares, and elementary finite-sum inequalities. The cone inequalities (B.27)–(B.28), the interpolation inequality and the optimality conditions (B.6) are reusable in other sparse-estimation missions; contributions to any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. arXiv:0801.1095v3, https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1095 ; https://doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS620
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron. J. Statist. 1, 169–194, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS008
  • E. Candès, T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2313–2351, 2007. https://arxiv.org/abs/math/0506081
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Statist. Soc. B 58(1), 267–288, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • M. J. Wainwright, High-Dimensional Statistics: A Non-Asymptotic Viewpoint, Cambridge University Press, 2019, Chapter 7. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108627771
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Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector IV: Estimation and Prediction Error Bounds for the Dantzig SelectorResearch Paper

Motivation

In high-dimensional linear regression the number of unknown coefficients MMM may be much larger than the number of observations nnn, and the coefficient vector can only be recovered because it is assumed to be sparse: few of its entries are non-zero. Two convex estimators dominate this setting: the Lasso of Tibshirani (1996), an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-penalized least-squares estimator, and the Dantzig selector of Candès and Tao (2007), which minimizes the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm subject to a bound on the correlation between the residual and the columns of the design. Both are used routinely in statistics, signal processing and machine learning, and their rates of convergence determine how many observations suffice to estimate a sparse vector.

Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095; Ann. Statist. 37(4), 2009) analysed the two estimators side by side under a single, weak condition on the design, the restricted eigenvalue (RE) assumption. This mission formalizes their rates for the Dantzig selector, Theorem 7.1 of the paper.

Timeline. Candès and Tao (Ann. Statist. 35, 2007) introduced the Dantzig selector and bounded its ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ error under a uniform uncertainty principle on the design. Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (2009) replaced that condition by the RE assumptions, which are implied by it (their Lemma 4.1), and obtained ℓp\ell_pℓp​ bounds for every 1≤p≤21\le p\le21≤p≤2 and a prediction bound, with explicit constants. Later work (van de Geer and Bühlmann, EJS 2009) compared RE with the compatibility condition and other design conditions.

Setting

Observations follow the linear model

y=Xβ∗+w,y=X\beta^*+w,y=Xβ∗+w,

where X∈Rn×MX\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X∈Rn×M is a deterministic design matrix, n≥1n\ge1n≥1, M≥2M\ge2M≥2, β∗∈RM\beta^*\in\mathbb R^Mβ∗∈RM is unknown, and w=(W1,…,Wn)w=(W_1,\dots,W_n)w=(W1​,…,Wn​) has independent N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) coordinates with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. The columns are normalized: every diagonal element of the Gram matrix XTX/nX^TX/nXTX/n equals 1.

For β∈RM\beta\in\mathbb R^Mβ∈RM, J(β)={j:βj≠0}J(\beta)=\{j:\beta_j\ne0\}J(β)={j:βj​=0} is its support and M(β)=∣J(β)∣\mathcal M(\beta)=|J(\beta)|M(β)=∣J(β)∣ its sparsity; β∗\beta^*β∗ satisfies M(β∗)≤s\mathcal M(\beta^*)\le sM(β∗)≤s for an integer 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M. Norms are ∣δ∣p=(∑j∣δj∣p)1/p|\delta|_p=(\sum_j|\delta_j|^p)^{1/p}∣δ∣p​=(∑j​∣δj​∣p)1/p and ∣v∣22=∑ivi2|v|_2^2=\sum_iv_i^2∣v∣22​=∑i​vi2​; for an index set JJJ, δJ\delta_JδJ​ keeps the coordinates of δ\deltaδ in JJJ and sets the others to 0, and JcJ^cJc is the complement of JJJ.

With a tuning level r=Aσlog⁡M/nr=A\sigma\sqrt{\log M/n}r=AσlogM/n​, A>2A>\sqrt2A>2​, the Dantzig selector is any minimizer

β^D∈arg⁡min⁡β∈Λ∣β∣1,Λ={β∈RM: ∣1nXT(y−Xβ)∣∞≤r}.\hat\beta_D\in\arg\min_{\beta\in\Lambda}|\beta|_1,\qquad \Lambda=\Big\{\beta\in\mathbb R^M:\ \Big|\tfrac1nX^T(y-X\beta)\Big|_\infty\le r\Big\}.β^​D​∈argβ∈Λmin​∣β∣1​,Λ={β∈RM: ​n1​XT(y−Xβ)​∞​≤r}.

The cone condition at an index set J0J_0J0​ with constant c0>0c_0>0c0​>0 is ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​. Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) asks that

κ(s,c0)=min⁡∣J0∣≤s min⁡δ≠0, ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1∣Xδ∣2n ∣δJ0∣2>0.\kappa(s,c_0)=\min_{|J_0|\le s}\ \min_{\delta\ne0,\ |\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1}\frac{|X\delta|_2}{\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2}>0 .κ(s,c0​)=∣J0​∣≤smin​ δ=0, ∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​min​n​∣δJ0​​∣2​∣Xδ∣2​​>0.

Assumption RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) is the same with ∣δJ01∣2|\delta_{J_{01}}|_2∣δJ01​​∣2​ in the denominator, where J01=J0∪J1J_{01}=J_0\cup J_1J01​=J0​∪J1​ and J1J_1J1​ collects the mmm largest ∣δj∣|\delta_j|∣δj​∣ outside J0J_0J0​; it is used for s≤ms\le ms≤m, s+m≤Ms+m\le Ms+m≤M.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.1

With probability at least 1−M1−A2/21-M^{1-A^2/2}1−M1−A2/2, every Dantzig selector satisfies

∣β^D−β∗∣1≤8Aκ2(s,1) σslog⁡Mn,∣X(β^D−β∗)∣22≤16A2κ2(s,1) σ2slog⁡M,|\hat\beta_D-\beta^*|_1\le\frac{8A}{\kappa^2(s,1)}\,\sigma s\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}},\qquad |X(\hat\beta_D-\beta^*)|_2^2\le\frac{16A^2}{\kappa^2(s,1)}\,\sigma^2s\log M,∣β^​D​−β∗∣1​≤κ2(s,1)8A​σsnlogM​​,∣X(β^​D​−β∗)∣22​≤κ2(s,1)16A2​σ2slogM,

and, on the same event, if RE(s,m,1)(s,m,1)(s,m,1) holds, simultaneously for all 1<p≤21<p\le21<p≤2,

∣β^D−β∗∣pp≤2p−1 8{1+sm}2(p−1)s(Aσκ2(s,m,1)log⁡Mn)p.|\hat\beta_D-\beta^*|_p^p\le2^{p-1}\,8\Big\{1+\sqrt{\tfrac sm}\Big\}^{2(p-1)}s\Big(\frac{A\sigma}{\kappa^2(s,m,1)}\sqrt{\frac{\log M}{n}}\Big)^p .∣β^​D​−β∗∣pp​≤2p−18{1+ms​​}2(p−1)s(κ2(s,m,1)Aσ​nlogM​​)p.

Milestones

In the order the proof of the paper uses them:

  1. The noise event B=⋂j{∣1n∑iXijWi∣≤r∥fj∥n}\mathcal B=\bigcap_j\{|\frac1n\sum_iX_{ij}W_i|\le r\|f_j\|_n\}B=⋂j​{∣n1​∑i​Xij​Wi​∣≤r∥fj​∥n​} has P{Bc}≤M1−A2/2\mathbb P\{\mathcal B^c\}\le M^{1-A^2/2}P{Bc}≤M1−A2/2 (proof of Lemma B.3).
  2. Lemma B.3, (B.9): for any β\betaβ satisfying the Dantzig constraint, δ=β^D−β\delta=\hat\beta_D-\betaδ=β^​D​−β satisfies the cone condition at J(β)J(\beta)J(β) with c0=1c_0=1c0​=1.
  3. (B.25): on B\mathcal BB, β∗∈Λ\beta^*\in\Lambdaβ∗∈Λ, 1n∣XTXδ∣∞≤2r\frac1n|X^TX\delta|_\infty\le2rn1​∣XTXδ∣∞​≤2r, and 1n∣Xδ∣22≤4rs ∣δJ0∣2\frac1n|X\delta|_2^2\le4r\sqrt s\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2n1​∣Xδ∣22​≤4rs​∣δJ0​​∣2​.
  4. (B.26): under RE(s,1)(s,1)(s,1), 1n∣Xδ∣22≤16r2s/κ2\frac1n|X\delta|_2^2\le16r^2s/\kappa^2n1​∣Xδ∣22​≤16r2s/κ2 and ∣δJ0∣2≤4rs/κ2|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le4r\sqrt s/\kappa^2∣δJ0​​∣2​≤4rs​/κ2.
  5. (B.27): on the cone, ∣δ∣1≤(1+c0)s ∣δJ0∣2|\delta|_1\le(1+c_0)\sqrt s\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2∣δ∣1​≤(1+c0​)s​∣δJ0​​∣2​.
  6. (B.28): on the cone, ∣δ∣2≤(1+c0s/m) ∣δJ01∣2|\delta|_2\le(1+c_0\sqrt{s/m})\,|\delta_{J_{01}}|_2∣δ∣2​≤(1+c0​s/m​)∣δJ01​​∣2​.
  7. (B.29): under RE(s,m,1)(s,m,1)(s,m,1), ∣δ∣22≤16(1+s/m)2(rs/κ2)2|\delta|_2^2\le16(1+\sqrt{s/m})^2(r\sqrt s/\kappa^2)^2∣δ∣22​≤16(1+s/m​)2(rs​/κ2)2.
  8. Interpolation: ∑jaj≤b1\sum_ja_j\le b_1∑j​aj​≤b1​, ∑jaj2≤b2\sum_ja_j^2\le b_2∑j​aj2​≤b2​, aj≥0a_j\ge0aj​≥0 imply ∑jajp≤b12−pb2p−1\sum_ja_j^p\le b_1^{2-p}b_2^{p-1}∑j​ajp​≤b12−p​b2p−1​ for 1<p≤21<p\le21<p≤2.

Significance

The result. Theorem 7.1 shows that, up to the factor log⁡M\log MlogM, the Dantzig selector estimates an sss-sparse vector as well as least squares would if the support were known: the prediction error 1n∣X(β^D−β∗)∣22\frac1n|X(\hat\beta_D-\beta^*)|_2^2n1​∣X(β^​D​−β∗)∣22​ is of order σ2slog⁡M/n\sigma^2s\log M/nσ2slogM/n, and the ℓp\ell_pℓp​ errors are of order s1/pσlog⁡M/ns^{1/p}\sigma\sqrt{\log M/n}s1/pσlogM/n​. The bounds hold for any MMM, including M≫nM\gg nM≫n, provided only that RE holds, and every constant is explicit. The paper's Theorem 7.2 gives the same rates for the Lasso; comparing the two is the paper's main message.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved in the paper; to the best of current knowledge it has not been machine-checked. A complete formal proof would provide: a verified Gaussian maximal inequality for the noise event, the deterministic cone and RE arithmetic that underlies essentially all ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​-regularized estimation theory, and a reusable ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​–ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ interpolation lemma. Most milestones are deterministic and independent of the probability layer.

Difficulty

The obvious argument — compare β^D\hat\beta_Dβ^​D​ with β∗\beta^*β∗ in Euclidean norm using the smallest eigenvalue of XTX/nX^TX/nXTX/n — fails because that eigenvalue is 0 whenever M>nM>nM>n. The proof must instead show that the error vector lies in a cone on which XXX is injective in a quantitative sense, and this uses the optimality of β^D\hat\beta_Dβ^​D​ (not just feasibility) together with the event B\mathcal BB on which β∗\beta^*β∗ itself is feasible. The ℓp\ell_pℓp​ bound needs a second, stronger condition RE(s,m,1)(s,m,1)(s,m,1) and a control of the tail of the error outside the mmm largest coordinates. On the formal side, handling the non-uniqueness of the minimizer, real powers with exponent p−1p-1p−1 or 2−p2-p2−p, and the union over MMM Gaussian tails with the exact constant M1−A2/2M^{1-A^2/2}M1−A2/2 all need care.

Formalization scope

Vectors are functions Fin M → ℝ, the design is Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ; the paper's dictionary of functions enters only through XXX. The unit diagonal of XTX/nX^TX/nXTX/n is a hypothesis, not a normalization performed in the proof. The noise is W : Fin n → Ω → ℝ on a probability space, measurable, mutually independent, each of law N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2); log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm. The Dantzig selector is a predicate (feasible and of minimal ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm among feasible vectors), and every result is stated for every minimizer. RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) and RE(s,m,c0)(s,m,c_0)(s,m,c0​) are stated through a witness κ\kappaκ (a number with the defining lower-bound property); κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is the largest witness and the bounds decrease in κ\kappaκ, so the statements are equivalent to the paper's while avoiding the value of a real infimum over an empty set. Two witnesses are kept apart: κ\kappaκ for RE(s,1)(s,1)(s,1) in (7.4)–(7.5), κ′\kappa'κ′ for RE(s,m,1)(s,m,1)(s,m,1) in (7.6). Ties in the choice of the mmm largest coordinates are handled by quantifying over every admissible J1J_1J1​. The probability statement asserts one measurable event EEE with P(E)≥1−M1−A2/2\mathbb P(E)\ge1-M^{1-A^2/2}P(E)≥1−M1−A2/2 on which all three bounds hold for every minimizer, every admissible mmm, every witness κ′\kappa'κ′ and every ppp.

The event EEE is fixed before the minimizer is quantified, so a formalization in which the event depends on β^D\hat\beta_Dβ^​D​, or in which RE is a hypothesis about the random error vector rather than the design, would be a different (weaker) statement and is not accepted. The deterministic milestones (B.26)–(B.29) take the conclusion of (B.25) as a hypothesis; they are true for every vector satisfying their hypotheses and are not restricted to the event.

A complete development needs Gaussian tail bounds and a union bound (Mathlib's gaussianReal), finite Hölder-type inequalities for real exponents, and elementary sorting arguments for the tail outside J01J_{01}J01​. The cone, RE and interpolation lemmas are reusable for the Lasso (Theorem 7.2, a sister mission) and beyond. Proofs of any milestone are welcome independently.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. arXiv:0801.1095v3: https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1095
  • E. Candès, T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2313–2351, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001523
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58(1), 267–288, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • S. van de Geer, P. Bühlmann, On the conditions used to prove oracle results for the Lasso, Electron. J. Statist. 3, 1360–1392, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1214/09-EJS506
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Simultaneous Analysis of Lasso and Dantzig Selector II: Approximate Equivalence of the Lasso and Dantzig Prediction LossesResearch Paper

Motivation

Two estimators dominate sparse high-dimensional regression, where the number MMM of candidate regressors can far exceed the sample size nnn. The Lasso (Tibshirani, 1996) minimises a least-squares criterion plus an ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ penalty. The Dantzig selector (Candès and Tao, 2007) minimises the ℓ1\ell_1ℓ1​ norm of the coefficients subject to a bound on the correlation between the residual and the regressors, and is computed by a linear program. They were proposed independently and first analysed under different assumptions: sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso (Bunea, Tsybakov and Wegkamp, 2007) and ℓ2\ell_2ℓ2​ bounds for the Dantzig selector under a uniform uncertainty principle (Candès and Tao, 2007). A practitioner choosing between them needs to know whether guarantees for one say anything about the other.

Bickel, Ritov and Tsybakov (arXiv:0801.1095; Ann. Statist. 37(4), 2009, doi:10.1214/08-AOS620) analyse both estimators in parallel under one assumption on the design, the restricted eigenvalue condition. Their main message is that, under sparsity, the two estimators "exhibit similar behavior" (p. 2). Section 5 makes this precise: the prediction losses of the two estimators are close. The result holds in a nonparametric model: the regression function need not be a combination of the regressors. This mission formalizes that comparison, Theorem 5.1 of the paper.

Setting

Let f1,…,fMf_1,\dots,f_Mf1​,…,fM​ be real functions (the dictionary) on a set Z\mathcal ZZ, and Z1,…,Zn∈ZZ_1,\dots,Z_n\in\mathcal ZZ1​,…,Zn​∈Z fixed design points, with n≥1n\ge1n≥1 and M≥2M\ge2M≥2. The design matrix is X=(fj(Zi))∈Rn×MX=(f_j(Z_i))\in\mathbb R^{n\times M}X=(fj​(Zi​))∈Rn×M. Observations are Yi=f(Zi)+WiY_i=f(Z_i)+W_iYi​=f(Zi​)+Wi​, where fff is an unknown function and W1,…,WnW_1,\dots,W_nW1​,…,Wn​ are independent N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) with σ>0\sigma>0σ>0. Write y=(Yi)y=(Y_i)y=(Yi​), f=(f(Zi))\boldsymbol f=(f(Z_i))f=(f(Zi​)) and w=(Wi)w=(W_i)w=(Wi​), so y=f+wy=\boldsymbol f+wy=f+w.

The empirical norm of ggg is ∥g∥n=(1n∑ig(Zi)2)1/2\|g\|_n=(\tfrac1n\sum_i g(Z_i)^2)^{1/2}∥g∥n​=(n1​∑i​g(Zi​)2)1/2. Every column has ∥fj∥n≠0\|f_j\|_n\neq0∥fj​∥n​=0, and fmax⁡=max⁡j∥fj∥nf_{\max}=\max_j\|f_j\|_nfmax​=maxj​∥fj​∥n​. For β∈RM\beta\in\mathbb R^Mβ∈RM, fβ=∑jβjfjf_\beta=\sum_j\beta_jf_jfβ​=∑j​βj​fj​ has value vector XβX\betaXβ. The support is J(β)={j:βj≠0}J(\beta)=\{j:\beta_j\ne0\}J(β)={j:βj​=0} and the sparsity is M(β)=∣J(β)∣\mathcal M(\beta)=|J(\beta)|M(β)=∣J(β)∣. For J⊆{1,…,M}J\subseteq\{1,\dots,M\}J⊆{1,…,M}, δJ\delta_JδJ​ agrees with δ\deltaδ on JJJ and vanishes elsewhere.

Fix r>0r>0r>0. The Lasso β^L\hat\beta_Lβ^​L​ is any minimiser of

1n∑i=1n(Yi−fβ(Zi))2+2r∑j=1M∥fj∥n∣βj∣.\frac1n\sum_{i=1}^n\big(Y_i-f_\beta(Z_i)\big)^2+2r\sum_{j=1}^M\|f_j\|_n|\beta_j| .n1​i=1∑n​(Yi​−fβ​(Zi​))2+2rj=1∑M​∥fj​∥n​∣βj​∣.

With D=diag(∥f1∥n2,…,∥fM∥n2)D=\mathrm{diag}(\|f_1\|_n^2,\dots,\|f_M\|_n^2)D=diag(∥f1​∥n2​,…,∥fM​∥n2​), the Dantzig constraint is ∣1nD−1/2X⊤(y−Xβ)∣∞≤r|\tfrac1nD^{-1/2}X^\top(y-X\beta)|_\infty\le r∣n1​D−1/2X⊤(y−Xβ)∣∞​≤r. The Dantzig selector β^D\hat\beta_Dβ^​D​ is any vector of smallest ∣β∣1=∑j∣βj∣|\beta|_1=\sum_j|\beta_j|∣β∣1​=∑j​∣βj​∣ that satisfies it. The estimators are f^L=fβ^L\hat f_L=f_{\hat\beta_L}f^​L​=fβ^​L​​ and f^D=fβ^D\hat f_D=f_{\hat\beta_D}f^​D​=fβ^​D​​.

Assumption RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) with 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M, c0>0c_0>0c0​>0 asks that

κ(s,c0)=min⁡∣J0∣≤s min⁡δ≠0, ∣δJ0c∣1≤c0∣δJ0∣1 ∣Xδ∣2n ∣δJ0∣2>0.\kappa(s,c_0)=\min_{|J_0|\le s}\ \min_{\delta\ne0,\ |\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le c_0|\delta_{J_0}|_1}\ \frac{|X\delta|_2}{\sqrt n\,|\delta_{J_0}|_2}>0 .κ(s,c0​)=∣J0​∣≤smin​ δ=0, ∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤c0​∣δJ0​​∣1​min​ n​∣δJ0​​∣2​∣Xδ∣2​​>0.

Throughout, r=Aσlog⁡M/nr=A\sigma\sqrt{\log M/n}r=AσlogM/n​, where log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 5.1

Assume RE(s,1)(s,1)(s,1) with 1≤s≤M1\le s\le M1≤s≤M, and let A>22A>2\sqrt2A>22​. With probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8, every Lasso solution with M(β^L)≤s\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\le sM(β^​L​)≤s and every Dantzig selector satisfy

∣ ∥f^D−f∥n2−∥f^L−f∥n2 ∣≤16A2 M(β^L)σ2n fmax⁡2κ2(s,1) log⁡M.\Big|\,\|\hat f_D-f\|_n^2-\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\,\Big|\le16A^2\,\frac{\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\sigma^2}{n}\,\frac{f_{\max}^2}{\kappa^2(s,1)}\,\log M .​∥f^​D​−f∥n2​−∥f^​L​−f∥n2​​≤16A2nM(β^​L​)σ2​κ2(s,1)fmax2​​logM.

Milestones

The proof uses one probabilistic event and two one-sided deterministic inequalities.

  1. The Lasso satisfies the Dantzig constraint (2.3).
  2. The noise event A=⋂j{2∣1n∑iXijWi∣≤r∥fj∥n}\mathcal A=\bigcap_j\{2|\tfrac1n\sum_iX_{ij}W_i|\le r\|f_j\|_n\}A=⋂j​{2∣n1​∑i​Xij​Wi​∣≤r∥fj​∥n​} has P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8\mathbb P(\mathcal A^c)\le M^{1-A^2/8}P(Ac)≤M1−A2/8 (B.4).
  3. On A\mathcal AA, ∣1nX⊤(f−Xβ^L)∣∞≤3rfmax⁡/2|\tfrac1nX^\top(\boldsymbol f-X\hat\beta_L)|_\infty\le 3rf_{\max}/2∣n1​X⊤(f−Xβ^​L​)∣∞​≤3rfmax​/2 (Lemma B.1, (B.2)).
  4. The Dantzig error lies in the cone ∣δJ0c∣1≤∣δJ0∣1|\delta_{J_0^c}|_1\le|\delta_{J_0}|_1∣δJ0c​​∣1​≤∣δJ0​​∣1​ (Lemma B.3, (B.9)).
  5. On the larger event B⊇A\mathcal B\supseteq\mathcal AB⊇A, ∣1nX⊤(f−Xβ^D)∣∞≤2rfmax⁡|\tfrac1nX^\top(\boldsymbol f-X\hat\beta_D)|_\infty\le 2rf_{\max}∣n1​X⊤(f−Xβ^​D​)∣∞​≤2rfmax​ (Lemma B.3, (B.10)).
  6. ∥f^D−f∥n2≤∥f^L−f∥n2+16fmax⁡2r2M(β^L)/κ2\|\hat f_D-f\|_n^2\le\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2+16f_{\max}^2r^2\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)/\kappa^2∥f^​D​−f∥n2​≤∥f^​L​−f∥n2​+16fmax2​r2M(β^​L​)/κ2 on B\mathcal BB (B.15).
  7. ∥f^L−f∥n2≤∥f^D−f∥n2+9fmax⁡2r2M(β^L)/κ2\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le\|\hat f_D-f\|_n^2+9f_{\max}^2r^2\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)/\kappa^2∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤∥f^​D​−f∥n2​+9fmax2​r2M(β^​L​)/κ2 on A\mathcal AA (B.17).

Further result: Theorem 5.2

Assume ∥fj∥n=1\|f_j\|_n=1∥fj​∥n​=1 for all jjj and RE(s,5)(s,5)(s,5). With probability at least 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8, whenever M(β^D)≤s\mathcal M(\hat\beta_D)\le sM(β^​D​)≤s,

∥f^L−f∥n2≤10∥f^D−f∥n2+81A2 M(β^D)σ2n log⁡Mκ2(s,5).\|\hat f_L-f\|_n^2\le10\|\hat f_D-f\|_n^2+81A^2\,\frac{\mathcal M(\hat\beta_D)\sigma^2}{n}\,\frac{\log M}{\kappa^2(s,5)} .∥f^​L​−f∥n2​≤10∥f^​D​−f∥n2​+81A2nM(β^​D​)σ2​κ2(s,5)logM​.

Significance

The result. Theorem 5.1 bounds the gap between the two prediction losses by the rate M(β^L)σ2log⁡M/n\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\sigma^2\log M/nM(β^​L​)σ2logM/n of a sparse regression with M(β^L)\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)M(β^​L​) parameters. The bound carries a factor fmax⁡2/κ2(s,1)f^2_{\max}/\kappa^2(s,1)fmax2​/κ2(s,1) that measures how ill-conditioned the Gram matrix is on sparse vectors. A prediction bound for one estimator therefore transfers to the other at this cost. The paper uses this transfer in Proposition 6.3, which combines Theorem 5.1 with the Lasso oracle inequality of Section 6 to derive an oracle inequality for the Dantzig selector. The theorem requires no assumption relating fff to the dictionary.

Formalizing it. The result has been proved since 2009, and this mission formalizes that proof. None of the objects involved exists on Prove2Me yet: the weighted Lasso, the Dantzig selector and the Gaussian noise events. The Wainwright series on the platform defines a differently normalised Lasso with an unweighted penalty, a single fixed support and a different restricted eigenvalue condition, so it cannot be reused here. A machine-checked proof would also confirm the paper's constants, 16A216A^216A2 and the thresholds 222\sqrt222​ and M1−A2/8M^{1-A^2/8}M1−A2/8, which appear in all later analyses.

Difficulty

Each estimator is defined only implicitly, as the solution of an optimisation problem, and neither need be unique. Comparing their losses directly gives ±2nδ⊤X⊤(f−Xβ^)\pm\tfrac2n\delta^\top X^\top(\boldsymbol f-X\hat\beta)±n2​δ⊤X⊤(f−Xβ^​) plus 1n∣Xδ∣22\tfrac1n|X\delta|_2^2n1​∣Xδ∣22​ with δ=β^L−β^D\delta=\hat\beta_L-\hat\beta_Dδ=β^​L​−β^​D​. A crude bound on the cross term, ∣δ∣1⋅∣X⊤(⋅)∣∞|\delta|_1\cdot|X^\top(\cdot)|_\infty∣δ∣1​⋅∣X⊤(⋅)∣∞​, yields an error proportional to ∣δ∣1|\delta|_1∣δ∣1​. This does not produce the sparse rate unless ∣δ∣1|\delta|_1∣δ∣1​ is controlled by ∣Xδ∣2|X\delta|_2∣Xδ∣2​. That control needs δ\deltaδ to lie in the restricted eigenvalue cone at the support of the random, data-dependent vector β^L\hat\beta_Lβ^​L​. The restricted eigenvalue condition must therefore hold uniformly over supports of size at most sss; a condition for one fixed support does not suffice. The probabilistic part is a union bound over MMM Gaussian coordinates, and it must be arranged so that a single event serves every minimiser of both programs.

Formalization scope

The dictionary and the design points enter every statement only through XXX and f\boldsymbol ff, so the Lean statements take X : Matrix (Fin n) (Fin M) ℝ and f : Fin n → ℝ directly, and fff is arbitrary. The noise is a family W : Fin n → Ω → ℝ of measurable, mutually independent random variables with law gaussianReal 0 σ², and y=f+W(ω)y=f+W(\omega)y=f+W(ω). The Lasso and the Dantzig selector are predicates (IsLasso, IsDantzig), and every theorem is stated for every solution. The Dantzig constraint is written coordinatewise as ∣1n∑iXij(yi−(Xβ)i)∣≤r∥fj∥n|\tfrac1n\sum_iX_{ij}(y_i-(X\beta)_i)|\le r\|f_j\|_n∣n1​∑i​Xij​(yi​−(Xβ)i​)∣≤r∥fj​∥n​. The Lasso penalty and the Dantzig constraint are weighted by ∥fj∥n\|f_j\|_n∥fj​∥n​, and the Dantzig objective ∣β∣1|\beta|_1∣β∣1​ is unweighted, exactly as in the paper. Theorem 5.1 does not normalise the columns.

RE(s,c0)(s,c_0)(s,c0​) is stated through a witness: a real κ>0\kappa>0κ>0 with κn∣δJ0∣2≤∣Xδ∣2\kappa\sqrt n|\delta_{J_0}|_2\le|X\delta|_2κn​∣δJ0​​∣2​≤∣Xδ∣2​ on the cone, for all ∣J0∣≤s|J_0|\le s∣J0​∣≤s. The paper's κ(s,c0)\kappa(s,c_0)κ(s,c0​) is attained, so it is the largest witness. Every bound decreases in κ\kappaκ, so this reading is equivalent to the paper's and avoids a real infimum over an empty set. "With probability at least ppp" becomes the existence of a measurable event EEE with P(E)≥p\mathbb P(E)\ge pP(E)≥p on which the conclusion holds for every Lasso solution and every Dantzig selector. The condition M(β^L)≤s\mathcal M(\hat\beta_L)\le sM(β^​L​)≤s is imposed inside the event, per realisation. The milestones (B.2), (B.10), (B.15) and (B.17) are stated deterministically, on the noise events A\mathcal AA and B\mathcal BB as predicates on the noise vector; this is how the proof uses them. (B.4) is stated for every A>0A>0A>0, which is stronger than the paper's A>22A>2\sqrt2A>22​ and still true.

The goal cannot be made vacuous. For A>22A>2\sqrt2A>22​ the probability bound 1−M1−A2/81-M^{1-A^2/8}1−M1−A2/8 is positive. Lasso solutions exist because r>0r>0r>0 and every ∥fj∥n>0\|f_j\|_n>0∥fj​∥n​>0, and Dantzig selectors exist because the Lasso is feasible. RE(s,1)(s,1)(s,1) with κ=1\kappa=1κ=1 holds for X=n IX=\sqrt n\,IX=n​I.

A complete development needs:

  • subgradient optimality for the weighted Lasso;
  • a Gaussian tail bound P(∣η∣≥t)≤e−t2/2\mathbb P(|\eta|\ge t)\le e^{-t^2/2}P(∣η∣≥t)≤e−t2/2 together with the law of a weighted sum of independent Gaussians;
  • Cauchy–Schwarz on supports;
  • the quadratic bound bx−x2≤b2/4bx-x^2\le b^2/4bx−x2≤b2/4.

The noise-event lemmas and the Lasso optimality condition can be reused by the companion missions on this paper. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, including proofs that route (B.4) through Mathlib's sub-Gaussian API.

Selected references

  • P. J. Bickel, Y. Ritov, A. B. Tsybakov, Simultaneous analysis of Lasso and Dantzig selector, Ann. Statist. 37(4), 1705–1732, 2009. arXiv:0801.1095v3: https://arxiv.org/abs/0801.1095 ; doi:10.1214/08-AOS620
  • E. Candès, T. Tao, The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n, Ann. Statist. 35(6), 2313–2351, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001523
  • R. Tibshirani, Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso, J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58(1), 267–288, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1996.tb02080.x
  • F. Bunea, A. B. Tsybakov, M. H. Wegkamp, Sparsity oracle inequalities for the Lasso, Electron. J. Stat. 1, 169–194, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS008
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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies I: Subjective Mixed Equilibria of Two-Person Games Have Objective PayoffsResearch Paper

Motivation

Classical non-cooperative game theory randomizes with objective, independent devices: each player spins a private wheel whose odds everyone agrees on. Aumann's 1974 paper (doi:10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8) asks what changes when the randomizing events are ordinary events of the world, about which players may hold different subjective probabilities and may be differently informed. The paper introduced correlated equilibrium, and it also separates two effects that the classical model fuses: subjectivity (players disagree about probabilities) and correlation (players peg their choices on common or dependent events).

This mission formalizes the paper's result on subjectivity without correlation. Example 2.3 of the paper exhibits a three-person game in which strategies pegged on subjective but mutually secret events form an equilibrium that every player prefers to every classical mixed equilibrium. Proposition 5.1 shows that this cannot happen with two players.

Setting

A game has a finite set N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} of players, a finite set SiS_iSi​ of pure strategies for each player, a finite set XXX of outcomes and an outcome function ggg from S=×i∈NSiS=\times_{i\in N}S_iS=×i∈N​Si​ onto XXX. Player iii has a utility ui:X→Ru_i:X\to\mathbb Rui​:X→R; write hi(a)=ui(g(a))h_i(a)=u_i(g(a))hi​(a)=ui​(g(a)) for a∈Sa\in Sa∈S.

A randomizing structure consists of a set Ω\OmegaΩ of states of the world with a σ\sigmaσ-field B\mathcal BB of events, a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field Ji⊆B\mathcal J_i\subseteq\mathcal BJi​⊆B for each player (the events iii is informed about), and a probability measure pip_ipi​ on B\mathcal BB for each player (the subjective probability of iii). A strategy of iii is a map si:Ω→Sis_i:\Omega\to S_isi​:Ω→Si​ whose level sets {si=a}\{s_i=a\}{si​=a} lie in Ji\mathcal J_iJi​. For a profile s=(s1,…,sn)s=(s_1,\dots,s_n)s=(s1​,…,sn​) of strategies the payoff of iii is

Hi(s)=∫Ωhi(s(ω)) dpi(ω),H_i(s)=\int_\Omega h_i\big(s(\omega)\big)\,dp_i(\omega),Hi​(s)=∫Ω​hi​(s(ω))dpi​(ω),

computed under player iii's own beliefs. An equilibrium point is a profile sss with Hi(s)≥Hi(s1,…,ti,…,sn)H_i(s)\ge H_i(s_1,\dots,t_i,\dots,s_n)Hi​(s)≥Hi​(s1​,…,ti​,…,sn​) for every player iii and every strategy tit_iti​ of iii.

An event AAA is iii-secret if A∈JiA\in\mathcal J_iA∈Ji​ and every other player jjj regards AAA as independent of every event in the σ\sigmaσ-field generated by the Jk\mathcal J_kJk​, k≠ik\ne ik=i: pj(A∩B)=pj(A)pj(B)p_j(A\cap B)=p_j(A)p_j(B)pj​(A∩B)=pj​(A)pj​(B). A strategy is mixed if its level sets are iii-secret, and objective if each level set has the same probability under every pjp_jpj​. A measure is non-atomic on a σ\sigmaσ-field R\mathcal RR if every event of R\mathcal RR of positive measure contains an event of R\mathcal RR of strictly smaller positive measure; a roulette is a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field of B\mathcal BB on which every pjp_jpj​ is non-atomic. Throughout, Assumption II holds: every player iii has a σ\sigmaσ-field Ri\mathcal R_iRi​ of iii-secret events on which every pjp_jpj​ is non-atomic.

For distributions σi\sigma_iσi​ on SiS_iSi​ the classical payoff is Fi(σ)=∑a∈Shi(a)∏jσj(aj)F_i(\sigma)=\sum_{a\in S}h_i(a)\prod_j\sigma_j(a_j)Fi​(σ)=∑a∈S​hi​(a)∏j​σj​(aj​), and σ\sigmaσ is a Nash equilibrium point if no player gains by switching to another distribution.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5.1 (p. 78)

Let n=2n=2n=2 and assume

p1(B)=0  ⟺  p2(B)=0for every B∈B.(5.2)p_1(B)=0\iff p_2(B)=0\qquad\text{for every }B\in\mathcal B.\tag{5.2}p1​(B)=0⟺p2​(B)=0for every B∈B.(5.2)

Then for every equilibrium point sss in mixed strategies there is an equilibrium point ttt in objective mixed strategies with

H(s)=H(t).H(s)=H(t).H(s)=H(t).

The game need not be zero-sum.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1 (p. 81): in a roulette R\mathcal RR, for events B1,…,BlB^1,\dots,B^lB1,…,Bl and α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1], there is an objective A∈RA\in\mathcal RA∈R with pi(A)=αp_i(A)=\alphapi​(A)=α and pi(A∩Bk)=pi(A)pi(Bk)p_i(A\cap B^k)=p_i(A)p_i(B^k)pi​(A∩Bk)=pi​(A)pi​(Bk) for all i,ki,ki,k.
  2. Lemma 4.1 (p. 77): every distribution σi\sigma_iσi​ on SiS_iSi​ is realised by an objective mixed strategy sis_isi​ with p{si=a}=σi(a)p\{s_i=a\}=\sigma_i(a)p{si​=a}=σi​(a).
  3. Lemma 7.3 (p. 82): if every sjs_jsj​, j≠ij\ne ij=i, is mixed, then pi{s=a}=pi{si=ai} pi{sj=aj ∀j≠i}=∏jpi{sj=aj}p_i\{s=a\}=p_i\{s_i=a_i\}\,p_i\{s_j=a_j\ \forall j\ne i\}=\prod_j p_i\{s_j=a_j\}pi​{s=a}=pi​{si​=ai​}pi​{sj​=aj​ ∀j=i}=∏j​pi​{sj​=aj​}.
  4. Corollary 7.4 (p. 83): mixed strategies are independent under every pkp_kpk​.
  5. Proposition 4.3 (p. 77): {F(σ):σ Nash}={H(s):s an equilibrium point in objective mixed strategies}\{F(\sigma):\sigma\text{ Nash}\}=\{H(s): s\text{ an equilibrium point in objective mixed strategies}\}{F(σ):σ Nash}={H(s):s an equilibrium point in objective mixed strategies}.

Significance

The result. Proposition 5.1 isolates correlation as the source of the new equilibrium payoffs of the subjective model in two-person games: disagreement about probabilities alone, with strategies pegged on secret events, reproduces only payoffs already achievable by classical mixed strategies (by Proposition 4.3, only Nash equilibrium payoffs). The paper uses it to explain Example 2.9, where two zero-sum players both expect more than the value, as an effect of subjectivity combined with correlation. Proposition 4.3 is the bridge that embeds classical Nash theory in the subjective model; with Nash's theorem it gives existence of equilibrium points in every game.

Formalizing it. The results are proved in the paper; to our knowledge none of them has been machine-checked. The mission produces a reusable measure-theoretic model of randomized strategies with private information and subjective beliefs (secret events, mixed and objective strategies, roulettes), a non-atomicity notion relative to a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field, and the Lyapunov-type construction of Lemma 7.1, none of which exists in Mathlib at the pinned revision.

Difficulty

The equilibrium conditions quantify over all strategies of the deviator, i.e. all Ji\mathcal J_iJi​-measurable maps, and the deviator may know events on which the opponent's mixed strategy is pegged. The obvious computation of H1(t1,s2)H_1(t_1,s_2)H1​(t1​,s2​) as a sum of products of marginal probabilities is valid only because the opponent's strategy is pegged on secret events, which is the content of Lemma 7.3; for correlated strategies it fails, and Example 2.9 shows the proposition then fails. A second obstacle is that the replacement t1t_1t1​ must reproduce player 2's beliefs about s1s_1s1​, while player 1's own equilibrium condition is stated under p1p_1p1​; condition (5.2) is what transfers "aaa is played with positive probability" from one player's beliefs to the other's. Constructing objective strategies with prescribed probabilities (Lemmas 7.1 and 4.1) needs the convexity of the range of a non-atomic vector measure (Lyapunov's theorem), which is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

Players are a finite type (Fin 2 in the goal, players 1,2↦0,11,2\mapsto 0,11,2↦0,1); the SiS_iSi​ and XXX are finite types, and ggg is surjective. The σ\sigmaσ-field B\mathcal BB is an explicit parameter mΩ of the structure RandomizingStructure ι Ω mΩ, which carries the Ji\mathcal J_iJi​ and the probability measures pip_ipi​. Probabilities are [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞]-valued Mathlib measures. Utilities and pip_ipi​ are data (Assumption I is used only to compare lotteries by expected utility; the uniqueness of pip_ipi​ is not encoded). HiH_iHi​ is a Bochner integral; for strategy profiles the integrand has finitely many values and is measurable, hence integrable. Non-atomicity on a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field is defined directly; Mathlib's NoAtoms (singletons are null) would trivialize Assumption II and is not used. "Mixed" means pegged on the family of all iii-secret events, not on the σ\sigmaσ-field Ri\mathcal R_iRi​ of Assumption II. Classical distributions, FiF_iFi​ and Nash equilibrium points are AGT.IsLottery, AGT.expectedPayoff and AGT.IsMixedNash from the published definition agt_games.

A formalization that restricted deviations to mixed or objective strategies, or dropped "mixed" from the hypothesis on sss, would state a different theorem and is ruled out.

Useful contributions: Lyapunov's convexity theorem for finite-dimensional non-atomic vector measures (or the special case needed for Lemma 7.1), the factorization of Lemma 7.3, and the payoff identities used in the proof of Proposition 4.3. The model definitions are shared in meaning with the companion mission on two-person zero-sum games.

Selected references

  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974) 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • J. Nash, Non-Cooperative Games, Annals of Mathematics 54 (1951) 286–295. https://doi.org/10.2307/1969529
  • A. Liapounoff, Sur les fonctions-vecteurs complètement additives, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR Ser. Mat. 4 (1940) 465–478.
  • L. J. Savage, The Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, 1954.
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems III: Bounds between the Optimal Costs of the Stochastic (Q, r) Model and the EOQ ModelResearch Paper

Motivation

The continuous-review (Q,r)(Q, r)(Q,r) policy — order a fixed quantity QQQ whenever the inventory position falls to the reorder point rrr — is the textbook policy for a single item with random demand and a positive replenishment leadtime (Hadley and Whitin 1963). Its optimal parameters have no closed form, so practice routinely falls back on the deterministic economic order quantity (EOQ) model with backorders, whose optimum is explicit. How much the deterministic model misjudges the stochastic system's cost is therefore a practical question, and before Zheng (1992) it had been studied only numerically (Wagner, O'Hagan and Lundh 1965; Naddor 1975; Archibald and Silver 1978).

Zheng's paper answers it analytically. This mission targets its Theorem 3, which brackets the optimal cost of the stochastic model by the optimal cost of the EOQ model with the same parameters.

Setting

Demands arrive at rate λ>0\lambda>0λ>0 and orders arrive after a fixed leadtime L>0L>0L>0. Each order costs K>0K>0K>0; holding and backorder costs accrue at rates h>0h>0h>0 and p>0p>0p>0 per unit per unit time. The leadtime demand DDD is a nonnegative random variable with E(D)=λLE(D)=\lambda LE(D)=λL. The inventory cost rate at inventory position yyy is the newsvendor cost

G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],G(y)=E\big[h(y-D)^+ + p(D-y)^+\big],G(y)=E[h(y−D)++p(D−y)+],

assumed to attain its minimum at a unique point y0y^0y0.

For order quantity Q>0Q>0Q>0 and reorder point rrr, the long-run average cost is

c(Q,r)=λK+∫rr+QG(y) dyQ.c(Q,r)=\frac{\lambda K+\int_r^{r+Q}G(y)\,dy}{Q}.c(Q,r)=QλK+∫rr+Q​G(y)dy​.

Let r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) be a reorder point minimizing c(Q,⋅)c(Q,\cdot)c(Q,⋅), and define H(Q)=G(r(Q))H(Q)=G(r(Q))H(Q)=G(r(Q)) for Q>0Q>0Q>0, H(0)=G(y0)H(0)=G(y^0)H(0)=G(y0), and C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q))C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q))C(Q)=c(Q,r(Q)). The optimal order quantity Q∗Q^*Q∗ minimizes CCC over Q>0Q>0Q>0, and C∗=C(Q∗)C^*=C(Q^*)C∗=C(Q∗). Write H0(Q)=H(Q)−G(y0)H_0(Q)=H(Q)-G(y^0)H0​(Q)=H(Q)−G(y0) and

C0(Q)=λK+∫0QH0(y) dyQ,C_0(Q)=\frac{\lambda K+\int_0^Q H_0(y)\,dy}{Q},C0​(Q)=QλK+∫0Q​H0​(y)dy​,

the controllable cost, so that C(Q)=G(y0)+C0(Q)C(Q)=G(y^0)+C_0(Q)C(Q)=G(y0)+C0​(Q); C0∗=C0(Q∗)C^*_0=C_0(Q^*)C0∗​=C0​(Q∗). The constant G(y0)G(y^0)G(y0) is the newsboy cost.

The EOQ model is the same construction with demand constant at λL\lambda LλL: Gd(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+G_d(y)=h(y-\lambda L)^+ + p(\lambda L-y)^+Gd​(y)=h(y−λL)++p(λL−y)+, with functions HdH_dHd​, CdC_dCd​, optimal quantity Qd∗=2λK(h+p)/(hp)Q^*_d=\sqrt{2\lambda K(h+p)/(hp)}Qd∗​=2λK(h+p)/(hp)​ and optimal cost Cd∗=Cd(Qd∗)C^*_d=C_d(Q^*_d)Cd∗​=Cd​(Qd∗​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 97)

C0∗≤Qd∗Q∗ Cd∗,Cd∗≤C∗≤G(y0)+Qd∗Q∗ Cd∗.C^*_0\le\frac{Q^*_d}{Q^*}\,C^*_d,\qquad C^*_d\le C^*\le G(y^0)+\frac{Q^*_d}{Q^*}\,C^*_d.C0∗​≤Q∗Qd∗​​Cd∗​,Cd∗​≤C∗≤G(y0)+Q∗Qd∗​​Cd∗​.

All three inequalities are part of the goal. The weaker remark after the proof, Cd∗≤C∗≤Cd∗+G(y0)C^*_d\le C^*\le C^*_d+G(y^0)Cd∗​≤C∗≤Cd∗​+G(y0), drops the factor Qd∗/Q∗Q^*_d/Q^*Qd∗​/Q∗ and is not the goal.

Milestones

  1. Eq. (7): C(Q)=(λK+∫0QH(y) dy)/QC(Q)=\big(\lambda K+\int_0^Q H(y)\,dy\big)/QC(Q)=(λK+∫0Q​H(y)dy)/Q for Q>0Q>0Q>0.
  2. Eq. (8): Q>0Q>0Q>0 is optimal iff H(Q)=C(Q)H(Q)=C(Q)H(Q)=C(Q).
  3. Eqs. (13)–(15): C(Q)=G(y0)+C0(Q)C(Q)=G(y^0)+C_0(Q)C(Q)=G(y0)+C0​(Q), and H0(Q∗)=C0(Q∗)H_0(Q^*)=C_0(Q^*)H0​(Q∗)=C0​(Q∗).
  4. Lemma 6: A(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0QHA(Q)=QH(Q)-\int_0^QHA(Q)=QH(Q)−∫0Q​H is increasing and convex; Q=Q∗Q=Q^*Q=Q∗ iff A(Q)=λKA(Q)=\lambda KA(Q)=λK; Q∗Q^*Q∗ increases and r∗r^*r∗ decreases in KKK.
  5. Eqs. (18), (20): Hd(Q)=hph+pQH_d(Q)=\frac{hp}{h+p}QHd​(Q)=h+php​Q, and Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ is the EOQ optimum.
  6. Lemma 8: ∫0QH≥12QH(Q)≥A(Q)≥12QH0(Q)≥∫0QH0\int_0^QH\ge\tfrac12QH(Q)\ge A(Q)\ge\tfrac12QH_0(Q)\ge\int_0^QH_0∫0Q​H≥21​QH(Q)≥A(Q)≥21​QH0​(Q)≥∫0Q​H0​, with equalities for deterministic demand.
  7. Eq. (22): Gd(y)≤G(y)G_d(y)\le G(y)Gd​(y)≤G(y) for all yyy.

Significance

Theorem 3 says that randomness of leadtime demand raises the total optimal cost above the EOQ's, yet the controllable part of that cost — the part the order quantity actually trades off — is smaller than the EOQ's cost, scaled by Qd∗/Q∗Q^*_d/Q^*Qd∗​/Q∗. Combined with Qd∗≤Q∗Q^*_d\le Q^*Qd∗​≤Q∗ (Theorem 2 of the paper), the gap C∗−Cd∗C^*-C^*_dC∗−Cd∗​ is at most the newsboy cost G(y0)G(y^0)G(y0), independent of KKK, so the EOQ cost is a good proxy when KKK is large relative to G(y0)G(y^0)G(y0). The same machinery yields the paper's Theorem 5, that using Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ in the stochastic model costs at most 1/81/81/8 more than the optimum.

The result was proved in 1992; no machine-checked proof is known to exist. Formalizing it requires the continuous (Q,r)(Q,r)(Q,r) model as a whole — optimal reorder points, the one-variable reduction through HHH, and the area function AAA — none of which is in Mathlib. The companion missions of this series formalize Theorems 2, 4 and 5 of the same paper on the same model.

Difficulty

The middle inequality compares minima of two different functions: Cd≤CC_d\le CCd​≤C pointwise follows from Jensen's inequality, but only after the reorder point of each model is chosen optimally, so the comparison has to pass through the definition of CCC as a minimum over rrr. The outer inequalities depend on Lemma 8, whose proof uses convexity of HHH and a slope comparison H′≤Hd′H'\le H_d'H′≤Hd′​ (Lemmas 4 and 7). The paper argues these through first and second derivatives of r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) and GGG, which exist only when the leadtime demand has a smooth distribution; the formal statements assume no density, so a proof must either avoid derivatives or handle one-sided ones. Existence of optimal reorder points and of Q∗Q^*Q∗ is asserted in the paper without a separate argument.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace ZhengQR.CostBounds. The machinery (qrCost, reorderPt, idealPt, Hfun, Cfun, Afun, H0fun, C0fun, IsOptQty) is defined for an arbitrary G:R→RG:\mathbb R\to\mathbb RG:R→R and instantiated at the stochastic GGG and at GdG_dGd​. A structure QRModel holds the parameters, the demand distribution μ\muμ (a probability measure on R\mathbb RR) and the standing assumptions.

Conventions committed to:

  • Positivity of λ,L,K,h,p\lambda,L,K,h,pλ,L,K,h,p; D≥0D\ge0D≥0 almost surely; DDD integrable with E(D)=λLE(D)=\lambda LE(D)=λL; GGG has a unique minimizer (p. 90). No density is assumed.
  • r(Q)r(Q)r(Q) is a chosen minimizer of c(Q,⋅)c(Q,\cdot)c(Q,⋅) over R\mathbb RR, not a solution of G(r)=G(r+Q)G(r)=G(r+Q)G(r)=G(r+Q); y0y^0y0 is a chosen minimizer of GGG. Both use junk value 000 when no minimizer exists, which never happens under the assumptions.
  • H(0)=G(y0)H(0)=G(y^0)H(0)=G(y0); statements about HHH and AAA are on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞), about ccc, CCC, C0C_0C0​ for Q>0Q>0Q>0.
  • "Optimal order quantity" means Q>0Q>0Q>0 and C(Q)≤C(Q′)C(Q)\le C(Q')C(Q)≤C(Q′) for all Q′>0Q'>0Q′>0; the goal takes any such Q∗Q^*Q∗ and Lemma 6 states that exactly one exists, so the goal is not vacuous.
  • Cd∗C^*_dCd∗​ is Cd(Qd∗)C_d(Q^*_d)Cd​(Qd∗​), with Qd∗Q^*_dQd∗​ the explicit formula (20); milestone 5 proves it is the EOQ optimum. C0∗C^*_0C0∗​ is C0(Q∗)C_0(Q^*)C0​(Q∗), which equals min⁡Q>0C0\min_{Q>0}C_0minQ>0​C0​ by (13).
  • "Increasing" in Lemma 6 is read strictly, as the proof gives. Lemma 8 is stated for Q≥0Q\ge0Q≥0; "deterministic" means μ\muμ is the Dirac mass at λL\lambda LλL.

A formalization in which Cd∗C^*_dCd∗​ were an arbitrary number, or Q∗Q^*Q∗ an arbitrary positive real, would make the goal false or empty; both are tied to the model above.

Needed infrastructure: existence of minimizers of convex coercive functions on R\mathbb RR, differentiation of parametric integrals ∫r(Q)r(Q)+QG\int_{r(Q)}^{r(Q)+Q}G∫r(Q)r(Q)+Q​G, and properties of the newsvendor cost (convexity, coercivity, Jensen). Most of it is reusable for any continuous-review inventory model. Proofs of any milestone, and of lemmas the paper uses but this mission does not list (Lemmas 2–5, 7), are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y.-S. Zheng, On Properties of Stochastic Inventory Systems, Management Science 38(1):87–103, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.1.87
  • G. Hadley and T. M. Whitin, Analysis of Inventory Systems, Prentice-Hall, 1963.
  • P. Zipkin, Inventory Service-Level Measures: Convexity and Approximation, Management Science 32(8):975–981, 1986. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.8.975
  • A. Federgruen and Y.-S. Zheng, An Efficient Algorithm for Computing an Optimal (r, Q) Policy in Continuous Review Stochastic Inventory Systems, Operations Research 40(4):808–813, 1992. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.4.808
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Algorithmic Game TheoryDynamic ProgrammingMarkov Chain+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Markovian Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities I: The Max-Min Policy-Iteration Algorithm Terminates at a Max-Min Optimal Pure Stationary PolicyResearch Paper

Motivation

Howard's finite Markovian decision process (MDP) models a controller who, at each instant, observes the state of a system, chooses a decision, collects a reward and moves to a random next state with known transition probabilities. Howard's policy-iteration algorithm computes an optimal policy, and the model has been applied to inventory control, equipment replacement, quality control and marketing. Its weak point is the requirement that every transition probability be known exactly: in applications these numbers are estimated and are hard to measure.

Satia and Lave (Operations Research 21(3), 1973) relax this requirement. In their game-theoretic formulation, the controller knows only a set of admissible probability rows for every state–decision pair, and nature chooses the rows adversarially. This is the model now called a robust MDP with (s,a)-rectangular uncertainty, studied later by Iyengar (Math. Oper. Res. 2005) and Nilim and El Ghaoui (Oper. Res. 2005), who reprove and extend the dynamic-programming results for it. The paper gives a policy-iteration algorithm for the max-min criterion and proves that it terminates at an optimal policy. This mission formalizes that part of the paper (pp. 728–732).

Timeline:

  • 1953: Shapley introduces stochastic games (PNAS 39).
  • 1960: Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, policy iteration for known transitions.
  • 1973: Satia and Lave, max-min and max-max policy iteration for uncertain transitions (dynamic-programming equations and optimality of pure stationary policies cited from Satia's 1968 Stanford thesis).
  • 2005: Iyengar; Nilim and El Ghaoui, robust dynamic programming under rectangular uncertainty.

Setting

There are finitely many states iii and, in state iii, a finite nonempty set DiD_iDi​ of decisions kkk. A transition i→ji\to ji→j under decision kkk earns reward rijkr^k_{ij}rijk​; rewards are discounted by β\betaβ with 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1. For every pair (i,k)(i,k)(i,k) there is a nonempty, closed, convex set SikS_i^kSik​ of probability rows p=(p1,…,pN)p=(p_1,\dots,p_N)p=(p1​,…,pN​), pj≥0p_j\ge0pj​≥0, ∑jpj=1\sum_j p_j=1∑j​pj​=1. Nature's choice is a matrix P∈SP\in SP∈S: one row pik∈Sikp_i^k\in S_i^kpik​∈Sik​ for every pair.

A pure stationary policy A=(A1,…,AN)A=(A_1,\dots,A_N)A=(A1​,…,AN​) selects Ai∈DiA_i\in D_iAi​∈Di​. Under PPP its present value vA(P)v^A(P)vA(P) is the unique solution of equations (5),

viA=∑jpijAi(rijAi+βvjA).v_i^A=\sum_j p^{A_i}_{ij}\big(r^{A_i}_{ij}+\beta v_j^A\big).viA​=j∑​pijAi​​(rijAi​​+βvjA​).

Nature's minimum is v‾i(A)=inf⁡P∈SviA(P)\underline v_i(A)=\inf_{P\in S}v_i^A(P)v​i​(A)=infP∈S​viA​(P), and the max-min return of criterion (2) is vˉi=max⁡Av‾i(A)\bar v_i=\max_A\underline v_i(A)vˉi​=maxA​v​i​(A). A policy is max-min optimal if v‾(A)=vˉ\underline v(A)=\bar vv​(A)=vˉ in every state.

The algorithm alternates two routines. Phase 1 (nature's policy evaluation) fixes AAA, computes vAv^AvA from the current rows, replaces each row at AiA_iAi​ by a minimizer of ∑jpj(rijAi+βvjA)\sum_j p_j(r^{A_i}_{ij}+\beta v^A_j)∑j​pj​(rijAi​​+βvjA​) over SiAiS_i^{A_i}SiAi​​ (6), and stops when the minima reproduce vAv^AvA. Phase 2 (policy improvement) chooses in each state a decision BiB_iBi​ maximizing the test quantity (7),

tik(v)=min⁡p∈Sik∑jpj(rijk+βvj),t_i^k(v)=\min_{p\in S_i^k}\sum_j p_j\big(r^k_{ij}+\beta v_j\big),tik​(v)=p∈Sik​min​j∑​pj​(rijk​+βvj​),

at v=v‾(A)v=\underline v(A)v=v​(A), keeping AiA_iAi​ on ties; if B=AB=AB=A the algorithm terminates.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 5 with Proposition 3

Along every run A0,A1,…A^0,A^1,\dotsA0,A1,… of Phase 2 steps,

v‾(An)≤v‾(An+1)  ∀n,∃ n<#{policies}: An+1=An,  v‾(An)=vˉ,\underline v(A^n)\le\underline v(A^{n+1})\ \ \forall n,\qquad \exists\,n<\#\{\text{policies}\}:\ A^{n+1}=A^n,\ \ \underline v(A^n)=\bar v,v​(An)≤v​(An+1)  ∀n,∃n<#{policies}: An+1=An,  v​(An)=vˉ,

and the terminal policy attains the solution of the equations (4) and is ε\varepsilonε-optimal for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0.

Milestones

  • Eq. (5): the present-value equations have a unique solution.
  • [I−βP]−1[I-\beta P]^{-1}[I−βP]−1 is nonnegative with diagonal at least 1 for stochastic PPP (proof of Proposition 5).
  • Proposition 1: equations (4), with randomized decisions and mixed choices of nature, have a unique solution, and it is the max-min return.
  • Proposition 2: a pure stationary policy attains it.
  • A non-final Phase 1 iteration lowers nature's value weakly everywhere and strictly somewhere (proof of Proposition 4).
  • Proposition 4: Phase 1 comes within ε\varepsilonε of nature's optimum after finitely many iterations.
  • Proposition 3: at termination no pure stationary policy is better.
  • Each policy change strictly improves the max-min return (proof of Proposition 5).

Significance

The goal certifies a complete algorithm for the max-min problem: it computes a policy that is optimal against the worst admissible transition probabilities, in all states at once, in finitely many improvement steps. Propositions 1 and 2 show that the dynamic-programming equations (4) characterize the max-min value and that neither side gains from randomization. The known-transition case (every SikS_i^kSik​ a single row) recovers Howard's policy iteration.

On the platform, Howard-type policy iteration for known transitions has been formalized (the Bertsekas Dynamic Programming and Optimal Control missions); nothing with uncertain transitions exists. The results of this paper are proved in the literature (Satia's thesis, and in greater generality by Iyengar and by Nilim and El Ghaoui); none has a machine-checked proof. This mission produces the first formal robust-MDP model and robust policy-iteration theorem on the platform.

Difficulty

The obvious argument copies Howard's improvement lemma. It fails at two points. First, the value of a policy is itself the result of an inner optimization by nature, so comparing two policies requires comparing two different worst-case transition matrices; the matrix P∗BP^{*B}P∗B minimizing against BBB is not the one minimizing against AAA. Second, the proof of Proposition 4 as printed shows only that nature's values decrease and converge; that the limit is nature's optimum, over a continuum of admissible rows, needs a separate argument. Finally, Proposition 1 involves randomized strategies and probability measures on the uncertainty sets, and reducing them to pure strategies is the content of Propositions 1 and 2, not a definitional convenience.

Formalization scope

States are a finite type S (nonemptiness is not needed: every statement is unchanged in meaning at N=1N=1N=1 and trivially true at N=0N=0N=0), decisions a family D : S → Type* of finite nonempty types. The model fixes these conventions and readings:

  • 0≤β<10\le\beta<10≤β<1 (not printed; every return is an infinite discounted sum) and nonempty SikS_i^kSik​ (not printed; Phase 1 presupposes a feasible row) are added standing hypotheses; closedness and convexity are the paper's.
  • The present value is [I−βPA]−1[I-\beta P^A]^{-1}[I−βPA]−1 applied to the one-step rewards; the Eq. (5) milestone proves it is the unique solution of (5).
  • "min over pik∈Sikp_i^k\in S_i^kpik​∈Sik​" in (2) is an infimum over the nonempty type of admissible choices P∈SP\in SP∈S, bounded below; "max over all policies" is a maximum over pure stationary policies, with randomization handled in (4).
  • In (4), τ\tauτ ranges over probability vectors on DjD_jDj​ and α\alphaα over probability measures on row vectors with α(Sjk)=1\alpha(S_j^k)=1α(Sjk​)=1; the missing integral sign and unmatched brace of the printed display are corrected.
  • "Optimal" = equal to the max-min return in every state; "ε\varepsilonε-optimal" = within ±ε\pm\varepsilon±ε in every state (p. 731); "ε\varepsilonε-optimal for nature" = within ε\varepsilonε of nature's minimum.
  • "Terminates" = Phase 2 returns the same policy; "a finite number of iterations" is stated with the explicit bound "fewer than the number of policies".
  • Phase 1 is taken exact in Phase 2 (the proofs of Propositions 3 and 5 use exact minimizers); the Phase 1 stopping test is printed without Σ\SigmaΣ and the sum is formalized.
  • Retention rule: Phase 2 keeps AiA_iAi​ when it is already a maximizer. It is not printed, but it is Howard's rule and Proposition 5 is false without it.
  • Proposition 5's "ε\varepsilonε-optimal … in a finite number of iterations" is formalized as exact termination at an optimal policy, which implies the printed claim for every ε\varepsilonε.

Equation (4) must not be collapsed to max⁡kmin⁡p∈Sjk\max_k\min_{p\in S_j^k}maxk​minp∈Sjk​​ in its definition: that would make Proposition 2 true by definition. Similarly, the Phase 2 relation always has a successor and algorithm runs exist from every policy, so the goal is not vacuous.

Needed infrastructure: Neumann series for I−βPI-\beta PI−βP with stochastic PPP, monotonicity of policy evaluation, existence of minimizers of linear functions on compact subsets of the simplex, and the contraction argument for the robust Bellman operator. These are reusable for any robust or known-transition MDP development. Proofs of any milestone, alternative arguments for Propositions 1 and 2, and extensions to the max-max criterion are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. K. Satia and R. E. Lave, Jr., Markovian Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Probabilities, Operations Research 21(3), 728–740, 1973. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.21.3.728
  • R. A. Howard, Dynamic Programming and Markov Processes, MIT Press, 1960.
  • L. S. Shapley, Stochastic Games, PNAS 39(10), 1095–1100, 1953. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.39.10.1095
  • G. N. Iyengar, Robust Dynamic Programming, Mathematics of Operations Research 30(2), 257–280, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1040.0129
  • A. Nilim and L. El Ghaoui, Robust Control of Markov Decision Processes with Uncertain Transition Matrices, Operations Research 53(5), 780–798, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1050.0216
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CombinatoricsGraph TheoryOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

An Analysis of Several Heuristics for the Traveling Salesman Problem I: Nearest Neighbor Tours Can Be Far from OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

The traveling salesman problem with the triangle inequality asks for a shortest closed tour through nnn points whose distances form a metric. It is NP-hard, so in practice tours are built by fast construction heuristics, and the natural question is how far such a tour can be from optimal in the worst case. Rosenkrantz, Stearns and Lewis (SIAM J. Comput. 6(3), 1977) gave the first systematic worst-case analysis of the standard heuristics. Their results are reproduced in textbooks on approximation algorithms and combinatorial optimization, and they are the reference point against which later guarantees (Christofides' 3/23/23/2 algorithm, the double-tree 222-approximation) are compared.

The simplest heuristic studied is the nearest neighbor algorithm (Bellmore and Nemhauser, 1968; the "next best method" of Gavett, 1965): from the current node, always move to the closest node not yet visited, and return to the start at the end. The paper shows that this greedy rule is never worse than logarithmic (Theorem 1) and that the logarithm cannot be removed (Theorem 2). This mission is about Theorem 2, the lower bound.

Setting

A traveling salesman graph on nnn nodes is a complete graph with a distance d(a,b)∈Rd(a,b)\in\mathbb Rd(a,b)∈R that is symmetric, d(a,b)=d(b,a)d(a,b)=d(b,a)d(a,b)=d(b,a), nonnegative, d(a,b)≥0d(a,b)\ge 0d(a,b)≥0, and satisfies the triangle inequality d(a,c)≤d(a,b)+d(b,c)d(a,c)\le d(a,b)+d(b,c)d(a,c)≤d(a,b)+d(b,c). A tour lists the nodes in a visiting order τ(0),…,τ(n−1)\tau(0),\dots,\tau(n-1)τ(0),…,τ(n−1) and returns to τ(0)\tau(0)τ(0); its length is the sum of the nnn distances along it. OPTIMAL is the least length of a tour.

The nearest neighbor algorithm starts at an arbitrary node τ(0)\tau(0)τ(0); having reached τ(k)\tau(k)τ(k), it moves to a node τ(k+1)\tau(k+1)τ(k+1) that minimizes d(τ(k),⋅)d(\tau(k),\cdot)d(τ(k),⋅) over the nodes not yet visited, breaking ties arbitrarily; after the last node it returns to τ(0)\tau(0)τ(0). The length of the resulting tour is written NEARNEIBER. Because the start node and the ties are free, one instance has in general several nearest-neighbor tours. A lower bound needs only one of them; an upper bound must hold for all.

The instances of the proof are built from a recursive family of weighted graphs. With li=16(4⋅2i−(−1)i+3)l_i=\frac16(4\cdot 2^i-(-1)^i+3)li​=61​(4⋅2i−(−1)i+3) (so l1,l2,l3,l4=2,3,6,11l_1,l_2,l_3,l_4=2,3,6,11l1​,l2​,l3​,l4​=2,3,6,11), the graph F1F_1F1​ is a triangle with unit weights, and Fi+1F_{i+1}Fi+1​ consists of two copies of FiF_iFi​ joined through one new node by two edges of length 111 and two edges of length lil_ili​. Each FiF_iFi​ has 2i+1−12^{i+1}-12i+1−1 nodes and a path PiP_iPi​ from its start node to its middle node through every node, of length LiL_iLi​ with L1=2L_1=2L1​=2, Li+1=2Li+2liL_{i+1}=2L_i+2l_iLi+1​=2Li​+2li​. The graph GiG_iGi​ adds two closing edges to FiF_iFi​, and Gˉi\bar G_iGˉi​ is the complete graph on the same nodes whose distance is the shortest-path distance of GiG_iGi​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 566)

For each m>3m>3m>3 there is a traveling salesman graph with n=2m−1n=2^m-1n=2m−1 nodes and a nearest-neighbor tour on it such that

NEARNEIBEROPTIMAL>13lg⁡(n+1)+49.\frac{\mathrm{NEARNEIBER}}{\mathrm{OPTIMAL}}>\frac13\lg(n+1)+\frac49 .OPTIMALNEARNEIBER​>31​lg(n+1)+94​.

The statement is existential in both the instance and the run of the algorithm, exactly as in the paper.

Milestones, in the order the proof uses them

  1. (2.12): the difference equation Li+1=2Li+2liL_{i+1}=2L_i+2l_iLi+1​=2Li​+2li​, L1=2L_1=2L1​=2, has the solution Li=19(6 i 2i+8⋅2i+(−1)i−9)L_i=\frac19(6\,i\,2^i+8\cdot2^i+(-1)^i-9)Li​=91​(6i2i+8⋅2i+(−1)i−9).
  2. Gˉi\bar G_iGˉi​ is a traveling salesman graph: the shortest-path distance of GiG_iGi​ is symmetric, nonnegative and satisfies the triangle inequality.
  3. (2.13)–(2.17): the shortest-path distances in Fi+1F_{i+1}Fi+1​ between the seven named nodes A,…,GA,\dots,GA,…,G of Fig. 1, e.g. AG‾=li+2−2\overline{AG}=l_{i+2}-2AG=li+2​−2.
  4. Property a): every edge of GiG_iGi​ is a shortest path between its endpoints.
  5. Property b): the nearest neighbor algorithm started at the start node of Gˉi\bar G_iGˉi​ can follow PiP_iPi​ and return along the edge of length li−1l_i-1li​−1.
  6. The optimal tour: OPTIMAL(Gˉi)=2i+1−1\mathrm{OPTIMAL}(\bar G_i)=2^{i+1}-1OPTIMAL(Gˉi​)=2i+1−1.
  7. The exact ratio: the tour along PiP_iPi​ has length Li+li−1L_i+l_i-1Li​+li​−1, so its ratio is (Li+li−1)/n(L_i+l_i-1)/n(Li​+li​−1)/n.
  8. The inequality: (Li+li−1)/n>13lg⁡(n+1)+49(L_i+l_i-1)/n>\frac13\lg(n+1)+\frac49(Li​+li​−1)/n>31​lg(n+1)+94​ for i≥3i\ge3i≥3.

The instance for mmm is Gˉm−1\bar G_{m-1}Gˉm−1​.

Significance

Theorem 1 of the same paper shows NEARNEIBER/OPTIMAL≤12⌈lg⁡n⌉+12\mathrm{NEARNEIBER}/\mathrm{OPTIMAL}\le\frac12\lceil\lg n\rceil+\frac12NEARNEIBER/OPTIMAL≤21​⌈lgn⌉+21​ for every nearest-neighbor tour on every traveling salesman graph. Theorem 2 shows that this bound has the right order: no constant-factor guarantee holds for the nearest neighbor rule, and the gap between the two constants (13\frac1331​ against 12\frac1221​) is all that remains. This separates the nearest neighbor rule from the insertion rules analysed later in the same paper, of which nearest and cheapest insertion are within a factor 222 of optimal. It is the standard example of a natural greedy heuristic whose approximation ratio grows with nnn.

The upper bound, Theorem 1, is already on Prove2Me with a machine-checked proof (SupplyChainTheory.nearest_neighbor_bound); its statement notes that the lower-bound instances are not formalized there. This mission supplies them: an explicit recursive family of metric instances, the shortest-path computations that certify it, and the arithmetic of its ratio. The result is proved in the paper; to our knowledge it has not been formalized in any proof assistant. The construction (a recursively defined weighted graph with a closed-form shortest-path table) is also a reusable pattern for other worst-case lower bounds of greedy heuristics.

Difficulty

The arithmetic ((2.12) and the final inequality) is routine. The content is in properties a) and b). A shortest-path distance is an infimum over all walks, and property a) asks that no detour through the recursive structure is shorter than the direct edge, at every level of the recursion. The paper handles this by an induction on (2.13)–(2.17) that tracks only seven nodes per level, and argues that distances inside a copy of FiF_iFi​ are not shortened by embedding it into Fi+1F_{i+1}Fi+1​. Property b) then needs that at each step of PiP_iPi​ the chosen node is at least as close as every unvisited node, including nodes in the other copy and nodes reached through the start or right nodes; ties occur, and the claim is only that some resolution of them follows PiP_iPi​. Checking small cases by computer does not give either property for all iii.

Formalization scope

Nodes of an instance are Fin n, a tour is a permutation of Fin n, the tour length is the sum over consecutive pairs including the closing edge, and OPTIMAL is a minimum over the finite set of permutations. The model is the paper's: symmetric, nonnegative distances with the triangle inequality. The distance structure also carries d(a,a)=0d(a,a)=0d(a,a)=0, a normalization not in the paper; the diagonal never enters a tour length. A nearest-neighbor tour is a permutation in which each step goes to a node at least as close as every unvisited node, from an arbitrary start with arbitrary ties.

Ratios are multiplied out: the goal is (13log⁡2(n+1)+49)⋅OPTIMAL<NEARNEIBER(\frac13\log_2(n+1)+\frac49)\cdot\mathrm{OPTIMAL}<\mathrm{NEARNEIBER}(31​log2​(n+1)+94​)⋅OPTIMAL<NEARNEIBER together with OPTIMAL>0\mathrm{OPTIMAL}>0OPTIMAL>0, the paper's standing assumption (1.1). lg⁡(n+1)\lg(n+1)lg(n+1) is Real.logb 2 of n+1n+1n+1, as printed. Because of the strict inequality and the conjunct OPTIMAL>0\mathrm{OPTIMAL}>0OPTIMAL>0, the all-zero distance does not satisfy the goal, so the statement cannot be met by a degenerate instance.

In the construction the nodes of FiF_iFi​, GiG_iGi​, Gˉi\bar G_iGˉi​ are numbered 0,…,2i+1−20,\dots,2^{i+1}-20,…,2i+1−2 from left to right (start node 000, middle node 2i−12^i-12i−1, right node 2i+1−22^{i+1}-22i+1−2); in Fi+1F_{i+1}Fi+1​ the left copy comes first, then the new node, then the right copy. Graphs are edge lists with real weights and lil_ili​ is defined in R\mathbb RR exactly as in (2.11). The shortest-path distance is the infimum of walk weights over an inductive walk predicate; it would be 000 for two nodes with no connecting walk, a case that does not arise because every GiG_iGi​ and FiF_iFi​ is connected. LiL_iLi​ is defined by its difference equation; its identification with the length of the tour along PiP_iPi​ is milestone 7. All construction statements assume i≥1i\ge1i≥1.

A complete development needs a small library for shortest-path distances of finite weighted edge lists (symmetry, triangle inequality, attainment, behaviour under relabelling and under gluing two graphs at a few nodes); this part is reusable beyond the mission. Contributions welcome: proofs of any milestone, and such general shortest-path lemmas as separate theorems. Theorem 1 is not part of this mission.

Selected references

  • D. J. Rosenkrantz, R. E. Stearns, P. M. Lewis II, An Analysis of Several Heuristics for the Traveling Salesman Problem, SIAM J. Comput. 6(3):563–581, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1137/0206041
  • M. Bellmore, G. L. Nemhauser, The Traveling Salesman Problem: A Survey, Operations Research 16(3):538–558, 1968. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.16.3.538
  • J. W. Gavett, Three Heuristic Rules for Sequencing Jobs to a Single Production Facility, Management Science 11(8):B166–B176, 1965. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.11.8.B166
  • N. Christofides, Worst-Case Analysis of a New Heuristic for the Travelling Salesman Problem, Report 388, Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Mellon University, 1976.
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

An Exact Duality Theory for Semidefinite Programming and Its Complexity Implications: The Extended Lagrange–Slater Dual Has Zero Duality Gap and Attains Its OptimumResearch Paper

Motivation

Semidefinite programming (SDP) optimizes a linear function over the intersection of the cone of positive semidefinite matrices with an affine subspace. It contains linear programming as the diagonal case and is the computational core of relaxations in combinatorial optimization, control theory and polynomial optimization. Its standard duality theory, however, is weaker than that of linear programming. The Lagrangian dual of an SDP can have a strictly positive duality gap, can fail to attain its optimal value, and an infeasible semidefinite system need not have a certificate of infeasibility of the naive Farkas form. All the classical strong duality theorems for SDP therefore assume a constraint qualification such as Slater's condition (a strictly feasible point).

M. V. Ramana (1997, Math. Program. 77, 129–162) constructed a dual, the Extended Lagrange–Slater Dual (ELSD), whose size is polynomial in the data and which enjoys every property of linear programming duality for every SDP, with no constraint qualification. The same construction yields an exact theorem of the alternative for semidefinite feasibility and the complexity consequence that semidefinite feasibility lies in NP if and only if it lies in co-NP in the Turing model.

Timeline:

  • 1980s–1990s: Lagrangian (Slater-type) duality for SDP, with strong duality under strict feasibility (see e.g. the surveys of Vandenberghe and Boyd, SIAM Rev. 38 (1996)).
  • 1981: Borwein and Wolkowicz, facial reduction for general convex programs, which regularizes a problem by passing to the minimal face containing the feasible set; not of polynomial size in the SDP data (J. Math. Anal. Appl. 83 (1981)).
  • 1997: Ramana, the ELSD, an explicit polynomial-size dual with zero gap and dual attainment for every SDP.
  • 1997: Ramana, Tunçel and Wolkowicz relate the ELSD to facial reduction (SIAM J. Optim. 7 (1997)).

Setting

Let n,mn, mn,m be natural numbers, Mn\mathcal M_nMn​ the space of real n×nn\times nn×n matrices, and Sn⊆Mn\mathcal S_n\subseteq\mathcal M_nSn​⊆Mn​ the symmetric ones. On Mn\mathcal M_nMn​ the inner product is A∙B=∑i,jAijBijA\bullet B = \sum_{i,j}A_{ij}B_{ij}A∙B=∑i,j​Aij​Bij​. For symmetric AAA, A⪰0A\succeq 0A⪰0 means AAA is positive semidefinite. The data are symmetric Q0,Q1,…,Qm∈SnQ_0, Q_1,\dots,Q_m\in\mathcal S_nQ0​,Q1​,…,Qm​∈Sn​ and c∈Rmc\in\mathbb R^mc∈Rm. The primal SDP is

(P)sup⁡ cTxs.t.Q(x):=Q0−∑i=1mxiQi⪰0,(\mathrm P)\qquad \sup\ c^{\mathsf T}x\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Q(x) := Q_0-\sum_{i=1}^m x_iQ_i\succeq 0 ,(P)sup cTxs.t.Q(x):=Q0​−i=1∑m​xi​Qi​⪰0,

with feasible region G={x∣Q(x)⪰0}G = \{x\mid Q(x)\succeq 0\}G={x∣Q(x)⪰0}, a spectrahedron. Define Q∗:Mn→RmQ^*:\mathcal M_n\to\mathbb R^mQ∗:Mn​→Rm by Q∗(U)=(U∙Qi)i=1mQ^*(U) = (U\bullet Q_i)_{i=1}^mQ∗(U)=(U∙Qi​)i=1m​ and write Q#(U)=0Q^\#(U) = 0Q#(U)=0 for "Q0∙U=0Q_0\bullet U = 0Q0​∙U=0 and Q∗(U)=0Q^*(U) = 0Q∗(U)=0".

For k≥1k\ge 1k≥1 let Ck\mathcal C_kCk​ be the set of tuples (Ui,Wi)i=1k(U_i, W_i)_{i=1}^k(Ui​,Wi​)i=1k​ of real n×nn\times nn×n matrices with W0=0W_0 = 0W0​=0 and, for i=1,…,ki = 1,\dots,ki=1,…,k,

Q#(Ui+Wi−1)=0,Ui⪰WiWiT.Q^\#(U_i+W_{i-1}) = 0,\qquad U_i\succeq W_iW_i^{\mathsf T}.Q#(Ui​+Wi−1​)=0,Ui​⪰Wi​WiT​.

The WiW_iWi​ need not be symmetric. Uk\mathcal U_kUk​ and Wk\mathcal W_kWk​ are the sets of last components UkU_kUk​ and WkW_kWk​; W0={0}\mathcal W_0 = \{0\}W0​={0}. The ELSD is

inf⁡ (U+W)∙Q0s.t.Q∗(U+W)=c,W∈Wm,U⪰0,\inf\ (U+W)\bullet Q_0\quad\text{s.t.}\quad Q^*(U+W) = c,\quad W\in\mathcal W_m,\quad U\succeq 0,inf (U+W)∙Q0​s.t.Q∗(U+W)=c,W∈Wm​,U⪰0,

and Weak-ELSD is the same program with Wm−1\mathcal W_{m-1}Wm−1​. For the milestones: the polar G∘={y∣xTy≤1 ∀x∈G}G^\circ = \{y\mid x^{\mathsf T}y\le 1\ \forall x\in G\}G∘={y∣xTy≤1 ∀x∈G}, the algebraic polar G∗={Q∗(U)∣U∙Q0≤1, U⪰0}G^* = \{Q^*(U)\mid U\bullet Q_0\le 1,\ U\succeq 0\}G∗={Q∗(U)∣U∙Q0​≤1, U⪰0}, and Sk=Q∗(Wk)S_k = Q^*(\mathcal W_k)Sk​=Q∗(Wk​).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 6 (Duality Theorem)

For all data (Q0,…,Qm,c)(Q_0,\dots,Q_m,c)(Q0​,…,Qm​,c):

  1. weak duality: cTx≤(U+W)∙Q0c^{\mathsf T}x\le (U+W)\bullet Q_0cTx≤(U+W)∙Q0​ for x∈Gx\in Gx∈G and (U,W)(U,W)(U,W) feasible for ELSD or Weak-ELSD;
  2. if G≠∅G\neq\emptysetG=∅, then sup⁡x∈GcTx<∞\sup_{x\in G}c^{\mathsf T}x<\inftysupx∈G​cTx<∞ iff ELSD is feasible, iff Weak-ELSD is feasible;
  3. if G≠∅G\ne\emptysetG=∅ and ELSD (or Weak-ELSD) is feasible, there is v∈Rv\in\mathbb Rv∈R with
v=sup⁡x∈GcTx=inf⁡ELSD(U+W)∙Q0=inf⁡Weak-ELSD(U+W)∙Q0;v = \sup_{x\in G}c^{\mathsf T}x = \inf_{\mathrm{ELSD}}(U+W)\bullet Q_0 = \inf_{\mathrm{Weak\text{-}ELSD}}(U+W)\bullet Q_0;v=x∈Gsup​cTx=ELSDinf​(U+W)∙Q0​=Weak-ELSDinf​(U+W)∙Q0​;
  1. if G≠∅G\ne\emptysetG=∅ and the primal is bounded, ELSD attains vvv.

Milestones

Propositions 7(vi) and 7(vii) (facts on PSD matrices), Lemma 9 (annihilation Q(x)U=Q(x)W=0Q(x)U = Q(x)W = 0Q(x)U=Q(x)W=0), weak duality over every Wk\mathcal W_kWk​, Lemma 10 (nested subspaces), Lemma 13 (G∘=Cl(G∗)G^\circ = \mathrm{Cl}(G^*)G∘=Cl(G∗)), Corollary 14, Claims 17 and 16, the central Theorem 12,

G∘={Q∗(U+W)∣W∈Wk, U⪰0, U∙Q0≤1}(0∈G, k≥m−1),G^\circ = \{Q^*(U+W)\mid W\in\mathcal W_k,\ U\succeq 0,\ U\bullet Q_0\le 1\}\qquad(0\in G,\ k\ge m-1),G∘={Q∗(U+W)∣W∈Wk​, U⪰0, U∙Q0​≤1}(0∈G, k≥m−1),

the translation invariance of Ck,Uk,Wk\mathcal C_k,\mathcal U_k,\mathcal W_kCk​,Uk​,Wk​ (§2.5), and system (14) (dual attainment at value 0). Theorems 19–21 (Farkas lemma for SDP, optimality condition, primal attainment) are further items stated on the same definitions.

Significance

The Duality Theorem gives SDP a dual with the full strength of linear programming duality for every instance, at polynomial size. Consequences in the paper: an exact theorem of the alternative for semidefinite feasibility (Theorem 19); semidefinite characterizations of optimality of a given point and of primal attainment (Theorems 20, 21); and the complexity results that semidefinite feasibility is in NP iff it is in co-NP in the Turing model and in NP ∩ co-NP in the Blum–Shub–Smale model (Theorem 25, not part of this mission). Theorem 12 separately gives an exact semidefinite description of the polar of any spectrahedron containing the origin.

The results are proved on paper and are classical. No machine-checked version is known to exist; the platform's existing SDP duality theorem assumes Slater's condition. A formalization would provide the first constraint-qualification-free SDP duality in Lean, together with reusable infrastructure on PSD matrices (range inclusion, A∙B=0⇒AB=0A\bullet B = 0\Rightarrow AB = 0A∙B=0⇒AB=0) and on polars of convex sets.

Difficulty

The obvious route to SDP strong duality separates the primal's value from the image of the PSD cone under a linear map and invokes a closed-cone Farkas lemma. That step fails: the linear image of the PSD cone need not be closed, which is exactly why Lagrangian duality has gaps. In this mission the obstruction reappears as the non-closedness of the algebraic polar G∗G^*G∗ (Lemma 13 only gives G∘=Cl(G∗)G^\circ = \mathrm{Cl}(G^*)G∘=Cl(G∗)). The difficulty is to show that finitely many, and at most m−1m-1m−1, corrections by the sets SkS_kSk​ close G∗+SkG^*+S_kG∗+Sk​ (Claims 16, 17), and to control dimensions in doing so. A proof by assuming closedness, strict feasibility or a Slater point is a different theorem.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace ExactSDPDuality.ELSD, in one definition file. Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin n) ℝ, vectors Fin m → ℝ; "⪰0\succeq 0⪰0" is Mathlib's PosSemidef (which over ℝ includes symmetry); A∙BA\bullet BA∙B is the entrywise sum on all of Mn\mathcal M_nMn​; cTxc^{\mathsf T}xcTx is the dot product. The data Q0,…,QmQ_0,\dots,Q_mQ0​,…,Qm​ carry symmetry hypotheses in every statement, as the paper assumes throughout. Ck\mathcal C_kCk​ is encoded by sequences U,W:N→MnU, W:\mathbb N\to\mathcal M_nU,W:N→Mn​ with U0=W0=0U_0 = W_0 = 0U0​=W0​=0, so U0=W0={0}\mathcal U_0 = \mathcal W_0 = \{0\}U0​=W0​={0}; for m=0m = 0m=0 the index m−1m-1m−1 is 000. Optimal values are least upper and greatest lower bounds of the value sets, never real sSup/sInf. The polar is the one-sided polar. In §2.4 statements the standing assumption 0∈G0\in G0∈G is a hypothesis. In Claim 16 the index satisfies k+1≤mk+1\le mk+1≤m, the range where Sk+1S_{k+1}Sk+1​ is introduced, and dim⁡Sk\dim S_kdimSk​ is the rank of the span of SkS_kSk​.

Theorems 20 and 21 are printed with Q∗(U+W)=0Q^*(U+W) = 0Q∗(U+W)=0; both are false as printed (counterexamples in the items) and are stated with the corrected Q∗(U+W)=cQ^*(U+W) = cQ∗(U+W)=c that the paper's derivation from Theorem 6 gives.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: no Slater or other constraint qualification appears; the dual is the ELSD built from the recursively defined Wm\mathcal W_mWm​, not the Lagrangian dual or an arbitrary subspace; the WiW_iWi​ range over all of Mn\mathcal M_nMn​, not only symmetric matrices (the paper's Example 4 needs a nonsymmetric W2W_2W2​).

Needed infrastructure: PSD matrix facts (Proposition 7), bipolar theorem for closed convex sets containing the origin (Proposition 11), closedness arguments for linear images of cones, and dimension counting of subspaces of Rm\mathbb R^mRm. Contributions of any milestone, of these general lemmas, and of alternative proofs (for instance via facial reduction) are welcome.

Selected references

  • M. V. Ramana, An exact duality theory for semidefinite programming and its complexity implications, Mathematical Programming 77 (1997) 129–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02614433
  • M. V. Ramana, L. Tunçel, H. Wolkowicz, Strong duality for semidefinite programming, SIAM Journal on Optimization 7 (1997) 641–662. https://doi.org/10.1137/S1052623495288350
  • J. M. Borwein, H. Wolkowicz, Regularizing the abstract convex program, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications 83 (1981) 495–530. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-247X(81)90138-4
  • L. Vandenberghe, S. Boyd, Semidefinite programming, SIAM Review 38 (1996) 49–95. https://doi.org/10.1137/1038003
  • R. T. Rockafellar, Convex Analysis, Princeton University Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400873173
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AnalysisNumerical AnalysisOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Nonsmooth Version of Newton's Method II: global convergence of the generalized-Jacobian Newton method on a ball, with an error estimateResearch Paper

Motivation

Many problems in optimization and equilibrium modelling reduce to a system of equations F(x)=0F(x) = 0F(x)=0 with F:Rn→RnF : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}^nF:Rn→Rn that is continuous and locally Lipschitz but not differentiable. Complementarity problems rewritten through the min or Fischer–Burmeister functions, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker systems of nonlinear programs, and the gradients of augmented Lagrangians all have this form. Newton's method xk+1=xk−F′(xk)−1F(xk)x^{k+1} = x^k - F'(x^k)^{-1}F(x^k)xk+1=xk−F′(xk)−1F(xk) cannot be applied verbatim, because F′(xk)F'(x^k)F′(xk) need not exist.

Qi and Sun (Math. Programming 58 (1993) 353–367) replaced the Jacobian by an arbitrary element of Clarke's generalized Jacobian and proved that the resulting method converges under a condition they called semismoothness, extending Mifflin's notion (SIAM J. Control Optim. 15 (1977)) from functionals to maps. The paper has two convergence results. Theorem 3.2 is local: near a semismooth root with nonsingular generalized Jacobian the method converges superlinearly. Theorem 3.3, the target of this mission, is global in the Newton–Kantorovich sense: explicit constants on a ball SSS around the starting point guarantee that the iteration never leaves SSS, that FFF has exactly one zero in SSS, and that the iterates converge to it with a computable error bound. The authors describe it as "an extension of the classical Newton-Kantorovich theorem" (p. 361), which is stated for smooth maps in Ortega and Rheinboldt's monograph.

Timeline.

  • 1948: Kantorovich proves semilocal convergence of Newton's method for smooth operators in Banach spaces.
  • 1975–1983: Clarke introduces the generalized gradient and generalized Jacobian of a locally Lipschitz map (Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley 1983).
  • 1977: Mifflin defines semismooth functionals.
  • 1990: Pang proves convergence of a B-derivative Newton method under a strong Fréchet derivative at the solution.
  • 1993: Qi and Sun (this paper) prove local and global convergence of the generalized-Jacobian Newton method for semismooth maps.

Setting

Work in Rn\mathbb{R}^nRn with the Euclidean norm ∥⋅∥\|\cdot\|∥⋅∥; for a linear map VVV, ∥V∥\|V\|∥V∥ is the induced operator norm. Let F:Rn→RnF : \mathbb{R}^n \to \mathbb{R}^nF:Rn→Rn be locally Lipschitz. Write DFD_FDF​ for the set of points where FFF is differentiable and JF(y)JF(y)JF(y) for the derivative at y∈DFy \in D_Fy∈DF​.

  • The generalized Jacobian of FFF at xxx is
∂F(x)=co{lim⁡i→∞JF(xi):xi→x, xi∈DF}.\partial F(x) = \mathrm{co}\Big\{\lim_{i\to\infty} JF(x_i) : x_i \to x,\ x_i \in D_F\Big\}.∂F(x)=co{i→∞lim​JF(xi​):xi​→x, xi​∈DF​}.
  • The directional derivative is F′(x;h)=lim⁡t↓0 (F(x+th)−F(x))/tF'(x;h) = \lim_{t\downarrow 0}\,(F(x+th)-F(x))/tF′(x;h)=limt↓0​(F(x+th)−F(x))/t.
  • FFF is semismooth at xxx if it is Lipschitz near xxx and, for every hhh, Vh′V h'Vh′ has a limit as V∈∂F(x+th′)V \in \partial F(x+th')V∈∂F(x+th′), h′→hh' \to hh′→h, t↓0t \downarrow 0t↓0. Semismoothness implies that F′(x;h)F'(x;h)F′(x;h) exists.
  • A run of the nonsmooth Newton method (3.2) from x0x^0x0 is a pair of sequences (xk)(x^k)(xk), (Vk)(V_k)(Vk​) with Vk∈∂F(xk)V_k \in \partial F(x^k)Vk​∈∂F(xk) and Vk(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk)V_k(x^{k+1} - x^k) = -F(x^k)Vk​(xk+1−xk)=−F(xk) for all kkk; any element of ∂F(xk)\partial F(x^k)∂F(xk) may be chosen.

In Lean these are NonsmoothNewton.Global.clarkeJac, dirDeriv, SemismoothAt and IsNewtonRun, over EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n).

Fix x0x^0x0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0, the closed ball S={x:∥x−x0∥≤r}S = \{x : \|x - x^0\| \le r\}S={x:∥x−x0∥≤r}, and constants β,γ,δ\beta, \gamma, \deltaβ,γ,δ with α=β(γ+δ)\alpha = \beta(\gamma+\delta)α=β(γ+δ).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (global convergence)

Assume FFF is semismooth at every point of SSS and, for all x,y∈Sx, y \in Sx,y∈S and V∈∂F(x)V \in \partial F(x)V∈∂F(x): VVV is nonsingular,

∥V−1∥≤β,∥V(y−x)−F′(x;y−x)∥≤γ∥y−x∥,∥F(y)−F(x)−F′(x;y−x)∥≤δ∥y−x∥,\|V^{-1}\| \le \beta,\qquad \|V(y-x) - F'(x;y-x)\| \le \gamma\|y-x\|,\qquad \|F(y)-F(x)-F'(x;y-x)\| \le \delta\|y-x\|,∥V−1∥≤β,∥V(y−x)−F′(x;y−x)∥≤γ∥y−x∥,∥F(y)−F(x)−F′(x;y−x)∥≤δ∥y−x∥,

with α<1\alpha < 1α<1 and β∥F(x0)∥≤r(1−α)\beta\|F(x^0)\| \le r(1-\alpha)β∥F(x0)∥≤r(1−α). Then every run of (3.2) from x0x^0x0 stays in SSS, every VkV_kVk​ is nonsingular, FFF has a unique zero x∗x^*x∗ in SSS, xk→x∗x^k \to x^*xk→x∗, and

∥xk−x∗∥≤α1−α ∥xk−xk−1∥,k=1,2,…(3.4)\|x^k - x^*\| \le \frac{\alpha}{1-\alpha}\,\|x^k - x^{k-1}\|,\qquad k = 1, 2, \dots \tag{3.4}∥xk−x∗∥≤1−αα​∥xk−xk−1∥,k=1,2,…(3.4)

Milestones (steps of the proof, p. 360)

  1. The first step: ∥x1−x0∥≤β∥F(x0)∥≤r(1−α)\|x^1 - x^0\| \le \beta\|F(x^0)\| \le r(1-\alpha)∥x1−x0∥≤β∥F(x0)∥≤r(1−α), so x1∈Sx^1 \in Sx1∈S.
  2. One-step contraction: for consecutive Newton points with xk−1,xk∈Sx^{k-1}, x^k \in Sxk−1,xk∈S, ∥xk+1−xk∥≤α∥xk−xk−1∥\|x^{k+1} - x^k\| \le \alpha\|x^k - x^{k-1}\|∥xk+1−xk∥≤α∥xk−xk−1∥.
  3. All iterates remain in SSS, with ∥xk+1−xk∥≤rαk(1−α)\|x^{k+1} - x^k\| \le r\alpha^k(1-\alpha)∥xk+1−xk∥≤rαk(1−α).
  4. A run that stays in SSS and converges has uniformly bounded ∥Vk∥\|V_k\|∥Vk​∥, and its limit is a zero of FFF.
  5. FFF has at most one zero in SSS.

Significance

The theorem certifies, from data checkable on a single ball, that a solution exists, where it is, that it is unique there, and how far the current iterate is from it; (3.4) is an a-posteriori stopping criterion. It holds for every choice of Vk∈∂F(xk)V_k \in \partial F(x^k)Vk​∈∂F(xk), which is what implementations need, since they compute one element of ∂F\partial F∂F and not the whole set. The result underlies the global and semilocal analysis of semismooth Newton methods for complementarity problems, variational inequalities and nonsmooth KKT systems, a line that continued through the 1990s and 2000s.

The theorem is proved on paper; no machine-checked version is known. The platform has no Newton–Kantorovich theorem, smooth or nonsmooth, and no Clarke generalized Jacobian. A complete formalization would supply both, and the definitions layer here (generalized Jacobian, one-sided directional derivative, semismoothness, Newton runs) is shared with the two companion missions on Qi and Sun's local convergence theorem and on semismoothness of augmented Lagrangian gradients.

Difficulty

The Newton map is set-valued: xk+1x^{k+1}xk+1 depends on the choice of VkV_kVk​, so the Banach fixed-point theorem for a single contraction does not apply directly, and the argument must hold for every sequence of choices. The contraction estimate needs both consecutive steps to start inside SSS, so containment in SSS and the geometric decay of the steps must be established together. Identifying the limit as a zero requires a uniform bound on ∥Vk∥\|V_k\|∥Vk​∥, which is not a hypothesis: it has to come from local Lipschitz continuity through the structure of the generalized Jacobian. Uniqueness uses an element V∗∈∂F(x∗)V^* \in \partial F(x^*)V∗∈∂F(x∗), whose existence rests on Rademacher's theorem. Finally, the directional derivative in the hypotheses is only meaningful because semismoothness makes it exist.

Formalization scope

The space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n), so the norm is Euclidean, as in the paper (p. 356), and ∥V−1∥\|V^{-1}\|∥V−1∥ is the operator norm. Local Lipschitzness is global (LocallyLipschitz F), the standing assumption of Section 3. Conventions:

  • ∂F(x)\partial F(x)∂F(x) is the convex hull of limits of fderiv along sequences in DFD_FDF​; no closure is taken (the limit set is compact for locally Lipschitz FFF).
  • "VVV nonsingular, ∥V−1∥≤β\|V^{-1}\| \le \beta∥V−1∥≤β" is the existence of a two-sided inverse WWW with ∥W∥≤β\|W\| \le \beta∥W∥≤β; Ring.inverse is not used.
  • F′(x;h)F'(x;h)F′(x;h) is dirDeriv, a limUnder along t→0+t \to 0^+t→0+, used only at points of SSS, where semismoothness makes the limit exist.
  • The run is a relation, not a function; every choice of VkV_kVk​ is covered, and nonsingularity of each VkV_kVk​ is a conclusion.
  • The radius condition r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 is an explicit hypothesis. Without it, r<0r < 0r<0 and β<0\beta < 0β<0 would satisfy all other hypotheses vacuously while x0∉Sx^0 \notin Sx0∈/S.
  • The paper's third inequality sits under "for any V∈∂F(x)V \in \partial F(x)V∈∂F(x)"; it is stated without VVV, which is equivalent because ∂F(x)≠∅\partial F(x) \ne \emptyset∂F(x)=∅.
  • (3.4) is stated at index k+1k+1k+1 for k≥0k \ge 0k≥0, avoiding natural-number subtraction.
  • The paper's statements contain no o(⋅)o(\cdot)o(⋅) or O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅); all constants are explicit and fixed before the quantifiers over points of SSS.

The goal is the full four-part conclusion: containment, existence, uniqueness, and convergence with (3.4). A formalization that proves only that the iterates converge to some zero, or that treats ∂F(x)\partial F(x)∂F(x) as possibly empty so that the hypotheses become vacuous, is not the theorem. The hypotheses are satisfiable by genuinely nonsmooth maps, e.g. F(x)=x+110∣x∣−cF(x) = x + \tfrac{1}{10}|x| - cF(x)=x+101​∣x∣−c on R\mathbb{R}R with a ball containing the kink.

A complete development needs: nonemptiness and local boundedness of the generalized Jacobian (Rademacher's theorem, available in Mathlib as LipschitzWith.ae_differentiableAt); geometric-series and Cauchy-sequence arguments in a complete space. The generalized-Jacobian facts are reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions of any of the milestones, or of these general facts as separate lemmas, are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. Qi, J. Sun, A nonsmooth version of Newton's method, Mathematical Programming 58 (1993) 353–367. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581275
  • F. H. Clarke, Optimization and Nonsmooth Analysis, Wiley, New York, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9781611971309
  • R. Mifflin, Semismooth and semiconvex functions in constrained optimization, SIAM J. Control Optim. 15 (1977) 959–972. https://doi.org/10.1137/0315061
  • J. M. Ortega, W. C. Rheinboldt, Iterative Solution of Nonlinear Equations in Several Variables, Academic Press, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1137/1.9780898719468
  • J.-S. Pang, Newton's method for B-differentiable equations, Mathematics of Operations Research 15 (1990) 311–341. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.15.2.311
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CombinatoricsOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Worst-Case Performance Bounds for Simple One-Dimensional Packing Algorithms 4: First-Fit Decreasing Uses at Most 71/60 L* + 5 Bins When No Item Exceeds 1/2Research Paper

Motivation

Bin packing asks how to place a list of items with sizes in (0,1](0,1](0,1] into as few unit-capacity bins as possible. It models the cutting of stock material, the packing of files onto tracks of a disc and the assignment of jobs to machines with a common deadline. Deciding the optimum is NP-hard, so in practice simple rules are used, and the question is how far they can stray from the optimum in the worst case.

Johnson, Demers, Ullman, Garey and Graham (SIAM J. Comput. 3(4), 1974) gave the first sharp worst-case bounds for the four classical rules. For First-Fit Decreasing (FFD), the rule that sorts the items into nonincreasing order and then places each into the first bin with room, they announced the bound FFD(L)≤119L∗+4FFD(L)\le\frac{11}{9}L^*+4FFD(L)≤911​L∗+4, whose full proof in Johnson's thesis exceeds 75 pages. To show the method, Section 4 of the paper proves a simpler bound in detail: when no item exceeds 1/21/21/2, FFD uses at most 7160L∗+5\frac{71}{60}L^*+56071​L∗+5 bins. That result is the subject of this mission.

Timeline:

  • 1973: D. S. Johnson's MIT thesis, Near-optimal bin packing algorithms, contains the complete proofs of the 11/911/911/9 and 71/6071/6071/60 bounds.
  • 1974: Johnson, Demers, Ullman, Garey and Graham publish the 71/6071/6071/60 bound for lists in (0,1/2](0,1/2](0,1/2] (Theorem 4.1) with a proof that is complete except for parts of two lemmas, and show by example that 71/6071/6071/60 cannot be lowered.
  • 1985: B. S. Baker gives a shorter proof of the 11/911/911/9 bound for FFD (J. Algorithms 6, 1985).
  • 2007: G. Dósa determines the tight additive constant 6/96/96/9 in the 11/911/911/9 bound (ESCAPE 2007, LNCS 4614).

Setting

A list is a finite sequence L=(a1,…,an)L=(a_1,\dots,a_n)L=(a1​,…,an​) of real numbers in (0,1](0,1](0,1]; values may repeat. A bin has capacity 111; its level is the sum of the numbers in it. The optimum L∗L^*L∗ is the least number of bins into which the elements of LLL can be placed with no bin level exceeding 111.

First-Fit places a1,a2,…a_1,a_2,\dotsa1​,a2​,… in order into bins B1,B2,…B_1,B_2,\dotsB1​,B2​,…, each initially at level 000: aia_iai​ goes into the bin of least index whose level β\betaβ satisfies β≤1−ai\beta\le 1-a_iβ≤1−ai​. First-Fit Decreasing first arranges LLL into nonincreasing order and then runs First-Fit. FFD(L)FFD(L)FFD(L) is the number of bins it uses.

The proof uses a weight WWW on finite sets of elements. For an integer k≥1k\ge1k≥1, xxx is a kkk-piece if x∈(1k+1,1k]x\in(\frac1{k+1},\frac1k]x∈(k+11​,k1​], and a kkk-bin is a bin whose largest element is a kkk-piece. Set w1(x)=⌊1/x⌋−1w_1(x)=\lfloor 1/x\rfloor^{-1}w1​(x)=⌊1/x⌋−1. A pair (x,y)(x,y)(x,y) obeys relation kkk if xxx is a kkk-piece and kx+y≤1kx+y\le1kx+y≤1; then w2(x,y)=w1(x)+k−1kw1(y)w_2(x,y)=w_1(x)+\frac{k-1}{k}w_1(y)w2​(x,y)=w1​(x)+kk−1​w1​(y), and otherwise w2(x,y)=w1(x)+w1(y)w_2(x,y)=w_1(x)+w_1(y)w2​(x,y)=w1​(x)+w1​(y). For a partition π\piπ of XXX into one- and two-element sets, with each pair ordered (earlier, later) in the nonincreasing order,

w12(π)=∑{x}∈πw1(x)+∑(x,y)∈πw2(x,y),W(X)=min⁡πw12(π).w_{12}(\pi)=\sum_{\{x\}\in\pi}w_1(x)+\sum_{(x,y)\in\pi}w_2(x,y),\qquad W(X)=\min_\pi w_{12}(\pi).w12​(π)={x}∈π∑​w1​(x)+(x,y)∈π∑​w2​(x,y),W(X)=πmin​w12​(π).

BASIC is the set of elements of LLL that are kkk-pieces lying in a kkk-bin of the FFD packing of LLL, for some kkk; SURPLUS is the rest of LLL.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1

for every list L⊆(0,12]:FFD(L)≤7160L∗+5.\text{for every list } L\subseteq(0,\tfrac12]:\qquad FFD(L)\le\frac{71}{60}L^*+5 .for every list L⊆(0,21​]:FFD(L)≤6071​L∗+5.

The constants are those printed in the paper. The multiplicative constant 71/6071/6071/60 is best possible.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.3 (FFD part): if FFD(L)>rL∗+dFFD(L)>rL^*+dFFD(L)>rL∗+d with r,d≥1r,d\ge1r,d≥1, the list L′L'L′ of the elements of LLL exceeding (r−1)/r(r-1)/r(r−1)/r also has FFD(L′)>rL′∗+dFFD(L')>rL'^*+dFFD(L′)>rL′∗+d.
  2. Claim 4.2.1: for N≥4N\ge4N≥4 and L⊆(1N,12]L\subseteq(\frac1N,\frac12]L⊆(N1​,21​], ∑x∈BASICw1(x)≥FFD(L)−∑j=2N−1j−1j\sum_{x\in\mathrm{BASIC}}w_1(x)\ge FFD(L)-\sum_{j=2}^{N-1}\frac{j-1}{j}∑x∈BASIC​w1​(x)≥FFD(L)−∑j=2N−1​jj−1​.
  3. Claim 4.2.2: for N≥4N\ge4N≥4, L⊆(1N,12]L\subseteq(\frac1N,\frac12]L⊆(N1​,21​] and every partition π\piπ of LLL into one- and two-element sets, w12(π)≥w1(BASIC)−∑j=3N−11jw_{12}(\pi)\ge w_1(\mathrm{BASIC})-\sum_{j=3}^{N-1}\frac1jw12​(π)≥w1​(BASIC)−∑j=3N−1​j1​.
  4. Lemma 4.2: for N≥4N\ge4N≥4 and L⊆(1N,12]L\subseteq(\frac1N,\frac12]L⊆(N1​,21​], W(L)≥FFD(L)−N+2W(L)\ge FFD(L)-N+2W(L)≥FFD(L)−N+2.
  5. Subadditivity: W(X1∪⋯∪Xk)≤∑iW(Xi)W(X_1\cup\dots\cup X_k)\le\sum_i W(X_i)W(X1​∪⋯∪Xk​)≤∑i​W(Xi​).
  6. Lemma 4.3: if X⊆(17,12]X\subseteq(\frac17,\frac12]X⊆(71​,21​] and ∑x∈Xx≤1\sum_{x\in X}x\le1∑x∈X​x≤1, then W(X)≤7160W(X)\le\frac{71}{60}W(X)≤6071​.

A companion item states the Remark after Theorem 4.1: for every N≥1N\ge1N≥1 there is a list with all elements below 1/31/31/3, L∗=60NL^*=60NL∗=60N and FFD(L)=71NFFD(L)=71NFFD(L)=71N.

Significance

Theorem 4.1 shows the weighting-function method in its simplest nontrivial form: a weight whose total is within a constant of the algorithm's bin count, and which no feasible bin can exceed by more than the target ratio. The same method, with more elaborate weights, gives the 11/911/911/9 bound for FFD, and it is the model for later worst-case analyses of packing heuristics. The Remark shows that 71/6071/6071/60 is exact for items in (0,1/2](0,1/2](0,1/2], and the Corollary on p. 322 extends the analysis to the asymptotic ratio RFFDαR^\alpha_{FFD}RFFDα​ when items are bounded by α∈(8/29,1/2]\alpha\in(8/29,1/2]α∈(8/29,1/2].

The source proof is partial. The billing argument behind Claim 4.2.2 is given only when two auxiliary conditions (G1) and (G2) hold ("The more intricate argument here omitted", p. 321), and Lemma 4.3 is checked in four of about seventy-four cases ("leaving the remaining 70-odd, more or less routine, cases to the ambitious reader", p. 321). Complete details are in Johnson's thesis. The theorem itself is established. A formalization therefore gives the first complete, checked proof in a single place. The finite case analysis of Lemma 4.3 is well suited to machine checking. No machine-checked proof of any FFD bound is known to exist.

Difficulty

The obvious weight w1w_1w1​ alone fails. Claim 4.2.1 shows that w1(BASIC)w_1(\mathrm{BASIC})w1​(BASIC) covers the FFD bins, but many sets XXX of elements with sum at most 111 have w1(X)>71/60w_1(X)>71/60w1​(X)>71/60, for example two 222-pieces, a 555-piece and a 666-piece. The pair discounts of w2w_2w2​ repair Lemma 4.3, but they must then be paid for in Lemma 4.2, for every partition. That is Claim 4.2.2: a charge from each discounted pair to distinct SURPLUS elements that are no larger. The charge is straightforward only when no member of a pair obeying relation kkk lies in a bin of type k′<kk'<kk′<k. In general a pair's larger element may already have been charged by a smaller relation, and the paper omits the argument that handles this. Lemma 4.3 is elementary but has many cases, each determined by the piece types in XXX and the relations they obey.

Formalization scope

A list is L : List ℝ with IsList L (0<a≤10<a\le10<a≤1 for each element) in every statement. L∗L^*L∗ is optBins L, the least bbb such that some map from positions to Fin b has every bin sum at most 111. The First-Fit run keeps the nonempty bins as a List (List ℝ), and opens a new bin at the end exactly when no existing bin fits, which is the paper's "least jjj". The fit test is β+a≤1\beta+a\le1β+a≤1. FFD is First-Fit on sortDesc L, the mergeSort into nonincreasing order; ties do not affect the bin count. Indices are 000-based.

W(X)W(X)W(X) sorts XXX into nonincreasing order and minimises w12w_{12}w12​ over the involutions of its positions: fixed points are singletons, and a pair i<σ(i)i<\sigma(i)i<σ(i) is oriented (larger, smaller). The minimum is over a finite nonempty set, so it is attained. BASIC is a set of positions of sortDesc L, and each position's bin is its bin in the final FFD packing. In w2w_2w2​, k=⌊1/x⌋k=\lfloor1/x\rfloork=⌊1/x⌋ is the piece type of the first element. Sums ∑j=2N−1\sum_{j=2}^{N-1}∑j=2N−1​ are over Finset.Icc 2 (N - 1) with N≥4N\ge4N≥4.

The goal's range is (0,1/2](0,1/2](0,1/2]. The restriction to (1/7,1/2](1/7,1/2](1/7,1/2] belongs only to the proof, through Lemma 3.3. Stating the goal for (1/7,1/2](1/7,1/2](1/7,1/2], weakening 71/6071/6071/60 or 555, or making WWW an unattained infimum would each change the theorem. Only the FFD half of Lemma 3.3 is stated. Claim 4.2.1 is stated with Lemma 4.2's standing hypothesis N≥4N\ge4N≥4. The Remark's printed range 0<ε≤5/870<\varepsilon\le5/870<ε≤5/87 is a misprint: its FFD packing needs ε<1/174\varepsilon<1/174ε<1/174, and the companion item states only the existence claim.

Infrastructure needed: a usable API for the First-Fit run (the invariants of the fold, bin levels, the order of bins), a lemma that FFD bins receive items in nonincreasing order, and a decision procedure for Lemma 4.3's case analysis over piece types. The model file and the weight file are reusable for the 11/911/911/9 bound (mission 3 of this series) and for the bounded-α\alphaα corollaries. Contributions of proofs of Lemma 4.3 by computer-checked case enumeration, and of the missing general case of Claim 4.2.2, are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • D. S. Johnson, A. Demers, J. D. Ullman, M. R. Garey, R. L. Graham, Worst-Case Performance Bounds for Simple One-Dimensional Packing Algorithms, SIAM J. Comput. 3(4):299–325, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1137/0203025
  • D. S. Johnson, Near-Optimal Bin Packing Algorithms, Ph.D. thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1973 (reference [8] of the paper).
  • B. S. Baker, A new proof for the first-fit decreasing bin-packing algorithm, J. Algorithms 6, 1985.
  • G. Dósa, The tight bound of first fit decreasing bin-packing algorithm is FFD(I) ≤ 11/9 OPT(I) + 6/9, ESCAPE 2007, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 4614, 2007.
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