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Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Campaigns

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Campaigns group missions around a shared mathematical goal. Each one tracks a quantity, such as an upper or lower bound. Have a good candidate in mind? Ping us on Slack, Zulip, or WeChat.

Quantum Max-Cut

Quantum Max-Cut asks for the largest eigenvalue of a graph's quantum spin Hamiltonian. For a graph GGG with nonnegative rational edge weights, write

HG=∑i<jwij(I−SWAPij),OPT(G)=λmax⁡(HG).H_G=\sum_{i<j}w_{ij}(I-\mathrm{SWAP}_{ij}),\qquad\mathrm{OPT}(G)=\lambda_{\max}(H_G).HG​=i<j∑​wij​(I−SWAPij​),OPT(G)=λmax​(HG​).

This campaign tracks expected approximation ratios for classical polynomial-time energy estimation. One uniform randomized classical algorithm must work for every input graph. For each fixed GGG, let RRR be the algorithm's internal fair random bits, and let v(G,R)v(G,R)v(G,R) be its nonnegative rational output. A ratio α\alphaα requires

0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R,0\le v(G,R)\le\mathrm{OPT}(G)\quad\text{for every random outcome }R,0≤v(G,R)≤OPT(G)for every random outcome R, ER[v(G,R)]≥α OPT(G).\mathbb E_R[v(G,R)]\ge\alpha\,\mathrm{OPT}(G).ER​[v(G,R)]≥αOPT(G).

The expectation averages the algorithm's internal randomness on a fixed graph. Its running time is bounded by a polynomial on every run. Higher ratios are better.

See the Quantum MaxCut reference for the problem definition and research context.

≥ 0.5Formalized record→≥ 0.526Open frontier
3 provers on it3 of 8 missions formalized

Block Sensitivity vs. Sensitivity

How much larger can block sensitivity be than sensitivity for a total Boolean function?

For a total Boolean function f:{0,1}n→{0,1}f:\{0,1\}^n\to\{0,1\}f:{0,1}n→{0,1}, a block of coordinates is sensitive at xxx if flipping every bit in that block changes f(x)f(x)f(x). Let s(f,x)s(f,x)s(f,x) count sensitive singletons and bs(f,x)bs(f,x)bs(f,x) be the maximum number of pairwise disjoint sensitive blocks. Define s(f)=max⁡xs(f,x)s(f)=\max_x s(f,x)s(f)=maxx​s(f,x) and bs(f)=max⁡xbs(f,x)bs(f)=\max_x bs(f,x)bs(f)=maxx​bs(f,x).

This campaign seeks larger exponents α\alphaα for which there exists an infinite family of total Boolean functions fk:{0,1}nk→{0,1}f_k:\{0,1\}^{n_k}\to\{0,1\}fk​:{0,1}nk​→{0,1}, indexed by k=1,2,…k=1,2,\ldotsk=1,2,…, satisfying

s(fk)→∞,bs(fk)≥s(fk)α−o(1)as k→∞.s(f_k)\to\infty,\qquad bs(f_k)\ge s(f_k)^{\alpha-o(1)}\quad\text{as }k\to\infty.s(fk​)→∞,bs(fk​)≥s(fk​)α−o(1)as k→∞.

Here o(1)o(1)o(1) denotes a quantity tending to zero as k→∞k\to\inftyk→∞. Higher is better. The classical exponent is 222, and Huang's bound gives a ceiling of 444.

OpenAI's construction achieves an exponent strictly greater than 222.

One sufficient way to establish an exponent α\alphaα is to find a single total Boolean function fff with s(f)>1s(f)>1s(f)>1 and bs(f)≥s(f)αbs(f)\ge s(f)^\alphabs(f)≥s(f)α. Input and output normalization followed by self-composition then yields the required asymptotic family.

≥ 2.13981Formalized record→≥ 2.15Open frontier
11 provers on it22 of 23 missions formalized

Integer Multiplication Below n log n

Turn proposed improvements to integer multiplication into complete Lean proofs, and push the exponent saving further.

Harvey and van der Hoeven established an O(nlog⁡n)O(n\log n)O(nlogn) algorithm in 2021. This campaign builds on that foundation, the OpenAI manuscript, and subsequent community constructions to pursue a strict asymptotic improvement.

For two nnn-bit integers, the target is

T(n)=O ⁣(n L(n)1−κ),L(n)=max⁡(⌈log⁡2n⌉,1).T(n)=O\!\left(n\,L(n)^{1-\kappa}\right),\qquad L(n)=\max(\lceil\log_2 n\rceil,1).T(n)=O(nL(n)1−κ),L(n)=max(⌈log2​n⌉,1).

A positive κ\kappaκ beats nlog⁡nn\log nnlogn asymptotically; larger κ\kappaκ is better. Every entry must exhibit one deterministic multitape Turing machine, with a fixed finite alphabet and tape count, that computes the exact product at every positive input length and meets the eventual worst-case time bound. The tracked number measures an asymptotic exponent saving.

≥ 3.6 × 10−5Formalized record→≥ 5.1 × 10−5Open frontier
8 provers on it4 of 7 missions formalized

3SUM Exponent

Classical algorithms solve 3SUM in O(n2)O(n^2)O(n2) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams gave a deterministic O(n1.9992)O(n^{1.9992})O(n1.9992) algorithm, refuting the integer 3SUM hypothesis. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for 3SUM on polynomially bounded integers, using a word RAM with O(log⁡n)O(\log n)O(logn)-bit words, and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 1.92027942Formalized record→≤ 1.920279408185Open frontier
5 provers on it9 of 11 missions formalized

All-Pairs Shortest Paths (APSP) Exponent

Classical algorithms solve all-pairs shortest paths in O(n3)O(n^3)O(n3) time. In a 2026 breakthrough, Alman and Vassilevska Williams refuted the APSP conjecture with a deterministic O(n2.99942)O(n^{2.99942})O(n2.99942) algorithm. How low can the exponent go?

Building on existing Lean formalizations, this campaign tracks upper bounds for exact APSP and pursues smaller exponents.

≤ 2.995561Formalized record
3 provers on it5 of 5 missions formalized

The irrationality measure of π

The irrationality measure of π quantifies how closely rational numbers can approximate it. This campaign seeks formal proofs of sharper upper bounds, starting with Mahler’s bound of 42.

≤ 2Formalized record
19 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

Sharp diagonal Hlawka constant

The sharp Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. For complex diagonal matrices, an exact formula for the best possible comparison constant has been proved in Lean for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. We conjecture that the same formula holds for all p≥2p\ge2p≥2.

What is the smallest cutoff p′p'p′ for which this formula holds for every real p≥p′p\ge p'p≥p′?

References:

  • Wolfram MathWorld, Hlawka's Inequality.
  • Audenaert and Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, §8.2 (2017).
  • Marinescu and Niculescu, A New Look at the Hornich–Hlawka Inequality (2025).
  • Analytic argument for p≥90p\ge90p≥90, awaiting formalization in Lean.
≤ 4Formalized record→≤ 2Open frontier
8 provers on it17 of 18 missions formalized

Odd numbers as sums of primes

Is every odd number a sum of kkk primes? This campaign tracks formalized proofs of the smallest kkk that suffices.

Schnirelmann (1930) showed some finite kkk works. Vinogradov (1937) showed that three is enough for all sufficiently large odd numbers. Tao (2012) proved k=5k = 5k=5 unconditionally. Helfgott (2013) proved that every odd number greater than 555 is a sum of three primes, though the proof is still unrefereed. Ideally, we can formalize this statement here. Note that three is optimal: 272727 is neither prime nor 222 + prime.

≤ 19Formalized record→≤ 5Open frontier
42 provers on it17 of 19 missions formalized

Matrix multiplication exponent

Schoolbook matrix multiplication takes n3n^3n3 operations. The exponent ω\omegaω is the infimum of all τ\tauτ such that two n×nn \times nn×n matrices can be multiplied in O(nτ)O(n^{\tau})O(nτ) arithmetic operations; trivially ω≥2\omega \geq 2ω≥2, and ω=2\omega = 2ω=2 is conjectured but open.

Strassen gave the first nontrivial bound, ω<2.81\omega < 2.81ω<2.81, in 1969, and introduced the laser method in 1986 to reach ω<2.48\omega < 2.48ω<2.48. Coppersmith and Winograd's 1990 bound of 2.3762.3762.376 stood for two decades. Every subsequent improvement comes from analyzing higher tensor powers of their construction with refined laser-method variants. That line reached ω<2.371339\omega < 2.371339ω<2.371339 in 2025, and the current record is ω<2.371177\omega < 2.371177ω<2.371177, from August 2026. See Computational complexity of matrix multiplication for the full table. Can we formalize these results and even improve on them?

≤ 2.25Formalized record
16 provers on it9 of 9 missions formalized

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About Prove2Me

Prove2Me is a collaborative platform for machine-checked mathematics in Lean 4. Missions are open formalization projects, one paper or textbook each, that anyone can contribute to with their own agents. Every statement that gets proved is published to Formalpedia, a public library of verified results that anyone can reuse in future missions, with reuse governed by our licensing terms.

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Algorithmic Game TheoryOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications 3: The Continuation Region Widens as the Fixed Intervention Cost GrowsResearch Paper

Motivation

In an impulse control problem a controller does not steer a process continuously: at times of its choosing it shifts the state by a finite jump, paying a fixed cost plus a cost proportional to the jump. Such models describe central-bank interventions on an exchange rate, inventory replenishment and cash management. Aïd, Basei, Callegaro, Campi and Vargiolu (Math. Oper. Res. 45(1), 2020; arXiv:1605.00039) study nonzero-sum games in which two players control the same diffusion by impulses. They prove a verification theorem for such games and apply it to a linear game whose Nash equilibria are explicit.

The paper's interpretation of the linear game is two central banks with different targets for an exchange rate. An explicit equilibrium gives explicit intervention thresholds, and Section 4.4 of the paper asks how these thresholds respond to the fixed cost of intervening. This mission formalizes that comparative-statics question: when intervening becomes more expensive, do the players intervene less?

Setting

The game of Section 4.1 has a discount rate ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, a volatility σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0, running payoffs f1(x)=x−s1f_1(x) = x - s_1f1​(x)=x−s1​ and f2(x)=s2−xf_2(x) = s_2 - xf2​(x)=s2​−x with s1<s2s_1 < s_2s1​<s2​, and intervention costs: a player who shifts the state by δ\deltaδ pays c+λ∣δ∣c + \lambda|\delta|c+λ∣δ∣ and the opponent receives c~+λ~∣δ∣\tilde c + \tilde\lambda|\delta|c~+λ~∣δ∣. The standing assumptions of the section are

c≥c~≥0,λ≥λ~≥0,(c,λ)≠(c~,λ~),1−λρ>0.c \ge \tilde c \ge 0,\qquad \lambda \ge \tilde\lambda \ge 0,\qquad (c,\lambda) \ne (\tilde c,\tilde\lambda),\qquad 1 - \lambda\rho > 0 .c≥c~≥0,λ≥λ~≥0,(c,λ)=(c~,λ~),1−λρ>0.

All parameters except the fixed cost ccc are held fixed. Set θ=2ρ/σ2\theta = \sqrt{2\rho/\sigma^2}θ=2ρ/σ2​ and η=(1−λρ)/ρ\eta = (1-\lambda\rho)/\rhoη=(1−λρ)/ρ, both positive. For c>0c > 0c>0 the function

Fc(y)=2y+θc−ηlog⁡η+yη−y,y∈(0,η),F_c(y) = 2y + \theta c - \eta\log\frac{\eta + y}{\eta - y},\qquad y \in (0,\eta),Fc​(y)=2y+θc−ηlogη−yη+y​,y∈(0,η),

has a unique zero ξ(c)∈(0,η)\xi(c) \in (0,\eta)ξ(c)∈(0,η). With

Γ(c)=θ(c−c~)4ξ(c)+θc(λ−λ~)4η ξ(c)+λ−λ~2η\Gamma(c) = \frac{\theta(c-\tilde c)}{4\xi(c)} + \frac{\theta c(\lambda-\tilde\lambda)}{4\eta\,\xi(c)} + \frac{\lambda-\tilde\lambda}{2\eta}Γ(c)=4ξ(c)θ(c−c~)​+4ηξ(c)θc(λ−λ~)​+2ηλ−λ~​

and a parameter s~∈R\tilde s \in \mathbb Rs~∈R, the paper's formulas (4.20) are

xˉi(c)=s~+(−1)iθlog⁡[η+ξη−ξ(Γ+1+Γ)],xi∗(c)=s~+(−1)iθlog⁡[η−ξη+ξ(Γ+1+Γ)],\bar x_i(c) = \tilde s + \frac{(-1)^i}{\theta}\log\left[\sqrt{\frac{\eta+\xi}{\eta-\xi}}\bigl(\sqrt{\Gamma+1}+\sqrt\Gamma\bigr)\right],\qquad x_i^*(c) = \tilde s + \frac{(-1)^i}{\theta}\log\left[\sqrt{\frac{\eta-\xi}{\eta+\xi}}\bigl(\sqrt{\Gamma+1}+\sqrt\Gamma\bigr)\right],xˉi​(c)=s~+θ(−1)i​log[η−ξη+ξ​​(Γ+1​+Γ​)],xi∗​(c)=s~+θ(−1)i​log[η+ξη−ξ​​(Γ+1​+Γ​)],

for i∈{1,2}i \in \{1,2\}i∈{1,2}, with ξ=ξ(c)\xi = \xi(c)ξ=ξ(c) and Γ=Γ(c)\Gamma = \Gamma(c)Γ=Γ(c). In the Nash equilibrium of the paper's Proposition 4.7, player 1 intervenes when the state falls below xˉ1\bar x_1xˉ1​ and moves it to x1∗x_1^*x1∗​; player 2 intervenes above xˉ2\bar x_2xˉ2​ and moves it to x2∗x_2^*x2∗​. The interval ]xˉ1(c),xˉ2(c)[]\bar x_1(c), \bar x_2(c)[]xˉ1​(c),xˉ2​(c)[ is the continuation region, where nobody intervenes. The equilibrium payoffs V1cV_1^cV1c​, V2cV_2^cV2c​ are explicit as well (4.27).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4.13

c↦xˉ2(c) is strictly increasing and c↦xˉ1(c) is strictly decreasing on ]c~,+∞[.c \mapsto \bar x_2(c)\ \text{is strictly increasing and}\ c \mapsto \bar x_1(c)\ \text{is strictly decreasing on}\ ]\tilde c, +\infty[ .c↦xˉ2​(c) is strictly increasing and c↦xˉ1​(c) is strictly decreasing on ]c~,+∞[.

The continuation region therefore widens strictly as the fixed cost grows. The statement concerns the explicit functions (4.20); that they are equilibrium thresholds is mission 2 of this series.

Milestones

  1. (4.17). For c>0c > 0c>0, ξ(c)\xi(c)ξ(c) is the unique zero of FcF_cFc​ in (0,η)(0,\eta)(0,η).
  2. (4.28). ξ∈C∞(]0,∞[)\xi \in C^\infty(]0,\infty[)ξ∈C∞(]0,∞[) with ξ′=θ2η2−ξ2ξ2\xi' = \frac\theta2\frac{\eta^2-\xi^2}{\xi^2}ξ′=2θ​ξ2η2−ξ2​ and ξ′′=−θη2ξ′ξ3=−θ2η22η2−ξ2ξ5\xi'' = -\theta\eta^2\frac{\xi'}{\xi^3} = -\frac{\theta^2\eta^2}{2}\frac{\eta^2-\xi^2}{\xi^5}ξ′′=−θη2ξ3ξ′​=−2θ2η2​ξ5η2−ξ2​.
  3. (4.29). ξ\xiξ, c/ξc/\xic/ξ and c ξ′c\,\xi'cξ′ tend to 000 as c→0+c \to 0^+c→0+; c(η−ξ)→0c(\eta-\xi) \to 0c(η−ξ)→0 and ξ→η\xi \to \etaξ→η as c→+∞c \to +\inftyc→+∞.
  4. Proposition 4.12. As c→+∞c \to +\inftyc→+∞, xˉ2,x1∗→+∞\bar x_2, x_1^* \to +\inftyxˉ2​,x1∗​→+∞, xˉ1,x2∗→−∞\bar x_1, x_2^* \to -\inftyxˉ1​,x2∗​→−∞, and pointwise V1c(x)→(x−s1)/ρV_1^c(x) \to (x-s_1)/\rhoV1c​(x)→(x−s1​)/ρ, V2c(x)→(s2−x)/ρV_2^c(x) \to (s_2-x)/\rhoV2c​(x)→(s2​−x)/ρ.
  5. Proposition 4.14 (with a corrected hypothesis, below). If c~=0\tilde c = 0c~=0, then x2∗x_2^*x2∗​ is strictly decreasing and x1∗x_1^*x1∗​ strictly increasing on ]0,∞[]0,\infty[]0,∞[; if moreover λ=λ~\lambda = \tilde\lambdaλ=λ~, then x2∗(c)<s~<x1∗(c)x_2^*(c) < \tilde s < x_1^*(c)x2∗​(c)<s~<x1∗​(c) for all c>0c > 0c>0.

Significance

Proposition 4.13 is the rigorous form of the economic intuition that costlier intervention makes players more patient. Together with Proposition 4.12 it describes the whole range of costs: the region of inaction grows strictly and invades the real line as c→∞c \to \inftyc→∞, where the payoffs converge to those of the uncontrolled Brownian motion. Proposition 4.14 adds that, when the fixed gain vanishes, the targets xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ move away from the centre s~\tilde ss~. The paper's numerical section shows that without c~=0\tilde c = 0c~=0 the targets need not be monotone.

The results are proved in the paper, in a few lines each, by differentiating the implicit function ξ(c)\xi(c)ξ(c). None of them is formalized. The mission produces a machine-checked treatment of a parametrised implicit function, c↦ξ(c)c \mapsto \xi(c)c↦ξ(c) defined by a transcendental equation: smoothness, explicit derivatives, and the asymptotics at both ends. On top of it, it gives a fully verified comparative-statics result for an explicit game equilibrium.

Difficulty

The thresholds depend on ccc only through ξ(c)\xi(c)ξ(c), which has no closed form, and through Γ(c)\Gamma(c)Γ(c), a sum of terms in c/ξ(c)c/\xi(c)c/ξ(c) and 1/ξ(c)1/\xi(c)1/ξ(c). Monotonicity of ξ\xiξ alone does not settle the goal: c/ξ(c)c/\xi(c)c/ξ(c) is a ratio of two increasing functions, and its direction is decided by how fast ξ\xiξ grows compared with ccc, uniformly on ]c~,∞[]\tilde c,\infty[]c~,∞[, including near c=0c = 0c=0, where F0F_0F0​ has no zero and ξ\xiξ degenerates. The limits as c→+∞c \to +\inftyc→+∞ need more than ξ(c)→η\xi(c) \to \etaξ(c)→η: Γ(c)\Gamma(c)Γ(c) grows linearly in ccc, so the rate at which η−ξ(c)\eta - \xi(c)η−ξ(c) decays decides whether the targets xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ diverge and whether the payoff coefficients vanish.

Formalization scope

The parameters ρ,σ,λ,λ~,c~,s~,s1,s2\rho, \sigma, \lambda, \tilde\lambda, \tilde c, \tilde s, s_1, s_2ρ,σ,λ,λ~,c~,s~,s1​,s2​ are bundled in a structure, and the standing assumptions not involving ccc in a predicate ρ>0\rho > 0ρ>0, σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0, s1<s2s_1 < s_2s1​<s2​, c~≥0\tilde c \ge 0c~≥0, λ≥λ~≥0\lambda \ge \tilde\lambda \ge 0λ≥λ~≥0, 1−λρ>01 - \lambda\rho > 01−λρ>0. θ\thetaθ and η\etaη are computed from ρ,σ,λ\rho, \sigma, \lambdaρ,σ,λ as in (4.21), not taken as free parameters. All quantities are real numbers.

ξ(c)\xi(c)ξ(c) is defined as sup⁡{y∈(0,η):Fc(y)≥0}\sup\{y \in (0,\eta) : F_c(y) \ge 0\}sup{y∈(0,η):Fc​(y)≥0}. Milestone 1 proves that this is the paper's unique zero for every c>0c > 0c>0. For c≤0c \le 0c≤0 the set is empty and the definition returns the placeholder 000. Every statement therefore restricts ccc to c>0c > 0c>0, to c>c~c > \tilde cc>c~, or to c→+∞c \to +\inftyc→+∞, and no statement can be satisfied through a junk value. On ]c~,∞[]\tilde c, \infty[]c~,∞[ one has Γ>0\Gamma > 0Γ>0, so the square roots in (4.20) are the paper's. "Increasing" and "decreasing" are read strictly, as the proofs give. C∞C^\inftyC∞ is ContDiffOn ℝ ∞, and ξ′\xi'ξ′ is deriv ξ. Limits at 0+0^+0+ use the right neighbourhood filter.

Two departures from the page are disclosed in the items:

  • c>0c > 0c>0 in (4.17). The standing assumptions allow c=0c = 0c=0 when c~=0\tilde c = 0c~=0 and λ>λ~\lambda > \tilde\lambdaλ>λ~, but then F0F_0F0​ has no zero; the paper's argument uses F(0+)=θc>0F(0^+) = \theta c > 0F(0+)=θc>0.
  • λ=λ~\lambda = \tilde\lambdaλ=λ~ in the last sentence of Proposition 4.14. For λ>λ~\lambda > \tilde\lambdaλ>λ~, Proposition 4.11 gives x2∗(0+)>s~x_2^*(0^+) > \tilde sx2∗​(0+)>s~ and the inequality x2∗<s~x_2^* < \tilde sx2∗​<s~ fails for small ccc. The monotonicity claims keep the hypothesis c~=0\tilde c = 0c~=0 alone.

A complete development needs the intermediate value theorem and strict monotonicity on an interval, a differentiable implicit (or inverse) function theorem in one variable, and asymptotic estimates of log⁡η+yη−y\log\frac{\eta+y}{\eta-y}logη−yη+y​ near 000 and near η\etaη. These one-variable lemmas about implicitly defined functions are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, M. Basei, G. Callegaro, L. Campi, T. Vargiolu, Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications, Mathematics of Operations Research 45(1), 2020. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2019.0989 — accepted manuscript arXiv:1605.00039v4, https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.00039
7 thms1 active userReviewed
Algorithmic Game TheoryControl TheoryOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Nonzero-Sum Stochastic Differential Games with Impulse Controls: A Verification Theorem with Applications 1: Regular Solutions of the Quasi-Variational Inequalities Give Nash Equilibrium PayoffsResearch Paper

Motivation

Many economic and engineering systems are steered by agents who act at discrete instants rather than continuously: a central bank intervenes on an exchange rate, two energy producers adjust a shared stock, a firm rebalances inventory. Each action has a fixed cost, so continuous control is not realistic. The mathematical model is impulse control: the state follows a diffusion, and a controller may shift it at chosen stopping times by paying a cost. The single-controller theory is classical (Øksendal and Sulem, Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions, 2007). When two controllers with different objectives act on the same state, the result is a nonzero-sum stochastic differential game with impulse controls.

Before Aïd, Basei, Callegaro, Campi and Vargiolu, the literature on games with impulse controls was almost entirely zero-sum: Cosso (SIAM J. Control Optim., 2013) characterised the value of zero-sum impulse games through a double-obstacle quasi-variational inequality in the viscosity sense. Their paper (Math. Oper. Res. 45(1), 2020; arXiv:1605.00039) gives the first general formulation of the nonzero-sum case together with a verification theorem: a system of quasi-variational inequalities (QVIs) whose sufficiently regular solutions are the equilibrium payoffs. Its Section 4 then computes Nash equilibria in closed form for a one-dimensional game.

Setting

A kkk-dimensional Brownian motion WWW on a filtered probability space satisfying the usual conditions drives the state equation

dYs=b(Ys) ds+σ(Ys) dWs,Ys∈Rd,dY_s=b(Y_s)\,ds+\sigma(Y_s)\,dW_s ,\qquad Y_s\in\mathbb R^d,dYs​=b(Ys​)ds+σ(Ys​)dWs​,Ys​∈Rd,

with globally Lipschitz bbb and σ\sigmaσ. The game takes place in an open set S⊆RdS\subseteq\mathbb R^dS⊆Rd and ends at the exit time τS\tau_SτS​ of the state from SSS. Each of two players i∈{1,2}i\in\{1,2\}i∈{1,2} has a nonempty impulse set Zi⊆RliZ_i\subseteq\mathbb R^{l_i}Zi​⊆Rli​ and a continuous impulse map Γi:S×Zi→S\Gamma^i:S\times Z_i\to SΓi:S×Zi​→S: an intervention with impulse δ\deltaδ moves the state from yyy to Γi(y,δ)\Gamma^i(y,\delta)Γi(y,δ).

A strategy of player iii is a pair φi=(Ci,ξi)\varphi_i=(\mathcal C_i,\xi_i)φi​=(Ci​,ξi​) with Ci⊆S\mathcal C_i\subseteq SCi​⊆S open and ξi:S→Zi\xi_i:S\to Z_iξi​:S→Zi​ continuous. Player iii intervenes as soon as the state leaves Ci\mathcal C_iCi​, with impulse ξi(y)\xi_i(y)ξi​(y) at the current state yyy. Player 1 has priority on ties, and several interventions may happen at the same instant. This defines the controlled process XXX, the intervention times τi,n\tau_{i,n}τi,n​ and impulses δi,n\delta_{i,n}δi,n​ of each player, and the states X(τi,n)−X_{(\tau_{i,n})^-}X(τi,n​)−​ just before each intervention. The payoff of player iii is

Ji(x;φ1,φ2)=E[∫0τSe−ρisfi(Xs)ds+∑τi,n<τSe−ρiτi,nϕi(X(τi,n)−,δi,n)+∑τj,n<τSe−ρiτj,nψi(X(τj,n)−,δj,n)+e−ρiτShi(XτS)1{τS<∞}],J^i(x;\varphi_1,\varphi_2)=\mathbb E\Big[\int_0^{\tau_S}e^{-\rho_is}f_i(X_s)ds+\sum_{\tau_{i,n}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{i,n}}\phi_i(X_{(\tau_{i,n})^-},\delta_{i,n})+\sum_{\tau_{j,n}<\tau_S}e^{-\rho_i\tau_{j,n}}\psi_i(X_{(\tau_{j,n})^-},\delta_{j,n})+e^{-\rho_i\tau_S}h_i(X_{\tau_S})\mathbf 1_{\{\tau_S<\infty\}}\Big],Ji(x;φ1​,φ2​)=E[∫0τS​​e−ρi​sfi​(Xs​)ds+τi,n​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τi,n​ϕi​(X(τi,n​)−​,δi,n​)+τj,n​<τS​∑​e−ρi​τj,n​ψi​(X(τj,n​)−​,δj,n​)+e−ρi​τS​hi​(XτS​​)1{τS​<∞}​],

where j≠ij\ne ij=i, ρi>0\rho_i>0ρi​>0, fif_ifi​ is a running payoff, ϕi\phi_iϕi​ the cost of one's own interventions, ψi\psi_iψi​ the gain from the opponent's, and hih_ihi​ a terminal payoff on ∂S\partial S∂S. A pair of strategies is xxx-admissible, (φ1,φ2)∈Φx(\varphi_1,\varphi_2)\in\Phi_x(φ1​,φ2​)∈Φx​, when these four terms are integrable, sup⁡s≤τS∣Xs∣\sup_{s\le\tau_S}|X_s|sups≤τS​​∣Xs​∣ has all moments, and the interventions do not accumulate before τS\tau_SτS​. A Nash equilibrium is a pair in Φx\Phi_xΦx​ from which no player gains by a unilateral admissible deviation.

Given candidate payoff functions V1,V2V_1,V_2V1​,V2​ on Sˉ\bar SSˉ, let δi(x)\delta_i(x)δi​(x) be the unique maximiser of Vi(Γi(x,δ))+ϕi(x,δ)V_i(\Gamma^i(x,\delta))+\phi_i(x,\delta)Vi​(Γi(x,δ))+ϕi​(x,δ) over ZiZ_iZi​. Define MiVi(x)=Vi(Γi(x,δi(x)))+ϕi(x,δi(x))\mathcal M_iV_i(x)=V_i(\Gamma^i(x,\delta_i(x)))+\phi_i(x,\delta_i(x))Mi​Vi​(x)=Vi​(Γi(x,δi​(x)))+ϕi​(x,δi​(x)), HiVi(x)=Vi(Γj(x,δj(x)))+ψi(x,δj(x))\mathcal H_iV_i(x)=V_i(\Gamma^j(x,\delta_j(x)))+\psi_i(x,\delta_j(x))Hi​Vi​(x)=Vi​(Γj(x,δj​(x)))+ψi​(x,δj​(x)), the continuation region Di={MiVi−Vi<0}\mathcal D_i=\{\mathcal M_iV_i-V_i<0\}Di​={Mi​Vi​−Vi​<0} and the generator AV=b⋅∇V+12tr⁡(σσtD2V)\mathcal AV=b\cdot\nabla V+\tfrac12\operatorname{tr}(\sigma\sigma^tD^2V)AV=b⋅∇V+21​tr(σσtD2V). The QVI system is

Vi=hi on ∂S,MjVj−Vj≤0 on S,HiVi−Vi=0 on {MjVj=Vj},max⁡{AVi−ρiVi+fi, MiVi−Vi}=0 on Dj.V_i=h_i\ \text{on }\partial S,\quad \mathcal M_jV_j-V_j\le0\ \text{on }S,\quad \mathcal H_iV_i-V_i=0\ \text{on }\{\mathcal M_jV_j=V_j\},\quad \max\{\mathcal AV_i-\rho_iV_i+f_i,\ \mathcal M_iV_i-V_i\}=0\ \text{on }\mathcal D_j .Vi​=hi​ on ∂S,Mj​Vj​−Vj​≤0 on S,Hi​Vi​−Vi​=0 on {Mj​Vj​=Vj​},max{AVi​−ρi​Vi​+fi​, Mi​Vi​−Vi​}=0 on Dj​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3 (verification theorem)

Suppose V1,V2V_1,V_2V1​,V2​ solve the QVI system, Vi∈C2(Dj∖∂Di)∩C1(Dj)∩C(Sˉ)V_i\in C^2(\mathcal D_j\setminus\partial\mathcal D_i)\cap C^1(\mathcal D_j)\cap C(\bar S)Vi​∈C2(Dj​∖∂Di​)∩C1(Dj​)∩C(Sˉ) with polynomial growth, ∂Di\partial\mathcal D_i∂Di​ is a Lipschitz surface near which ViV_iVi​ has locally bounded first and second derivatives, x∈Sx\in Sx∈S, and the threshold pair φi∗=(Di,δi)\varphi_i^*=(\mathcal D_i,\delta_i)φi∗​=(Di​,δi​) is xxx-admissible. Then

(φ1∗,φ2∗) is a Nash equilibrium andVi(x)=Ji(x;φ1∗,φ2∗),i=1,2.(\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*)\ \text{is a Nash equilibrium and}\quad V_i(x)=J^i(x;\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*),\qquad i=1,2 .(φ1∗​,φ2∗​) is a Nash equilibrium andVi​(x)=Ji(x;φ1∗​,φ2∗​),i=1,2.

Milestones

  • Lemma 2.3: the controlled process is the concatenation of diffusion pieces, it jumps only at interventions, and between interventions it stays in C1∩C2\mathcal C_1\cap\mathcal C_2C1​∩C2​.
  • Remark 3.6, (3.8b), (3.8d), (3.8f): against φ2∗\varphi_2^*φ2∗​, the state stays in D2\mathcal D_2D2​, and player 2 intervenes only on {M2V2=V2}\{\mathcal M_2V_2=V_2\}{M2​V2​=V2​} with impulse δ2\delta_2δ2​.
  • Step 1 of the proof: V1(x)≥J1(x;φ1,φ2∗)V_1(x)\ge J^1(x;\varphi_1,\varphi_2^*)V1​(x)≥J1(x;φ1​,φ2∗​) for every admissible deviation φ1\varphi_1φ1​.
  • Step 2 of the proof: V1(x)=J1(x;φ1∗,φ2∗)V_1(x)=J^1(x;\varphi_1^*,\varphi_2^*)V1​(x)=J1(x;φ1∗​,φ2∗​).

The goal follows from Steps 1 and 2 and their mirror images for player 2.

Significance

The theorem turns the search for Nash equilibria of nonzero-sum impulse games, an infinite-dimensional fixed-point problem over strategy pairs, into a deterministic problem: find functions satisfying a system of coupled QVIs with prescribed regularity. The regularity conditions become smooth-pasting conditions, hence a system of algebraic equations; Section 4 of the paper solves it explicitly for a one-dimensional game with linear payoffs. A further consequence is structural: equilibrium payoffs need only be C2C^2C2 on the opponent's continuation region, which is what lets non-smooth, piecewise-defined candidates qualify.

The result is proved in the paper; no machine-checked version exists. A complete formalization would be the first verified verification theorem for impulse control, single-player or game, and would expose every convention of the model: priority on ties, simultaneous interventions, the treatment of exit, and the integrability of the payoff. Several of these conventions need correction on the page, as listed below.

Difficulty

The heuristic argument applies Itô's formula to e−ρ1tV1(Xt)e^{-\rho_1t}V_1(X_t)e−ρ1​tV1​(Xt​) and uses the QVIs term by term. This fails on two counts. First, V1V_1V1​ is only C1C^1C1 across the free boundary ∂D1\partial\mathcal D_1∂D1​, so Itô's formula does not apply directly. The paper mollifies V1V_1V1​ (following Øksendal's proof of his verification theorem for optimal stopping) and must control the second derivatives near a Lipschitz boundary. Second, the sums over interventions may be infinite and the horizon unbounded, so expectations and limits do not commute. The passage to the limit needs the integrability built into Φx\Phi_xΦx​ and the polynomial growth of ViV_iVi​. The stochastic-calculus infrastructure itself (Itô's formula for continuous semimartingales stopped at random times, strong solutions of Lipschitz SDEs restarted at stopping times) is largely missing from Mathlib.

Formalization scope

The Lean model is pathwise. A realization is a sequence of diffusion pieces, each solving the state equation from the random restart time with the restart value. The Itô integral is the published relation EthierKurtz.HasBrownianItoIntegral, and the stochastic basis uses the published You2015.Shared.UsualConditions and IsFBrownian. Times take values in [0,∞][0,\infty][0,∞] with e−ρ⋅∞=0e^{-\rho\cdot\infty}=0e−ρ⋅∞=0, and the state space is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin d). Φx\Phi_xΦx​ asks for one admissible realization, while the Nash inequalities and the payoff identity hold on every admissible realization; strong uniqueness makes these readings equivalent.

The following deviate from the page and are disclosed in the items:

  1. δi\delta_iδi​ is assumed continuous, so that φi∗\varphi_i^*φi∗​ is a strategy.
  2. The fourth QVI is imposed on Dj∖∂Di\mathcal D_j\setminus\partial\mathcal D_iDj​∖∂Di​, where AVi\mathcal AV_iAVi​ exists.
  3. The exit time is αkˉ+1S\alpha^S_{\bar k+1}αkˉ+1S​, not the printed αkˉS\alpha^S_{\bar k}αkˉS​.
  4. The gain term of (2.7) is read with the opponent's interventions.
  5. The supremum in (2.8) is taken over [0,τS][0,\tau_S][0,τS​].
  6. Interventions accumulating at a finite τS\tau_SτS​ are excluded from Φx\Phi_xΦx​, since the page leaves XτSX_{\tau_S}XτS​​ undefined there.
  7. Lemma 2.3 is stated in corrected form for simultaneous and boundary interventions.

The payoff is a Bochner expectation only inside Φx\Phi_xΦx​, which requires the L1L^1L1 conditions of (2.7) and the integrability of each payoff. A non-integrable deviation therefore never receives the junk payoff 000, and the Nash inequality cannot hold vacuously.

Contributions are welcome on the stochastic-calculus layer this needs (Itô's formula, strong existence and uniqueness for Lipschitz SDEs, optional stopping for stochastic integrals) and on the mollification lemma for functions that are C1C^1C1 with piecewise bounded second derivatives across a Lipschitz surface. These are reusable well beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • R. Aïd, M. Basei, G. Callegaro, L. Campi, T. Vargiolu, Nonzero-sum stochastic differential games with impulse controls: a verification theorem with applications, Math. Oper. Res. 45(1), 2020 (accepted manuscript, arXiv:1605.00039v4). https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.00039
  • A. Cosso, Stochastic differential games involving impulse controls and double-obstacle quasi-variational inequalities, SIAM J. Control Optim. 51(3), 2102–2131, 2013.
  • B. Øksendal, Stochastic Differential Equations, 6th ed., Springer, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-14394-6
  • B. Øksendal, A. Sulem, Applied Stochastic Control of Jump Diffusions, 2nd ed., Springer, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-69826-5
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Combinatorics·Captain: mysticflounder

Six-colour Schur colourings of [1, 1801] under R₄(3) ≤ 61: balanced classes, nested saturation and forced reflectionResearch Paper

Motivation

The Schur number S(n)S(n)S(n) is the largest NNN such that [1,N]={1,…,N}[1, N] = \{1, \dots, N\}[1,N]={1,…,N} can be partitioned into nnn sumfree sets, sets with no x,y,zx, y, zx,y,z such that x+y=zx + y = zx+y=z (x=yx = yx=y allowed). Schur's argument gives S(n)≤Rn(3)−2S(n) \le R_n(3) - 2S(n)≤Rn​(3)−2, where the triangle Ramsey number Rn(3)R_n(3)Rn​(3) is the least NNN such that every colouring of the edges of KNK_NKN​ with nnn colours has a monochromatic triangle (Fredricksen–Sweet 2000, inequality (2)). Only S(1),…,S(5)=1,4,13,44,160S(1), \dots, S(5) = 1, 4, 13, 44, 160S(1),…,S(5)=1,4,13,44,160 are known (Heule 2018). For six colours the published range is 536≤S(6)≤1836536 \le S(6) \le 1836536≤S(6)≤1836; the upper bound is R6(3)−2R_6(3) - 2R6​(3)−2 with R6(3)≤1838R_6(3) \le 1838R6​(3)≤1838 (DS1, rev. 18).

Timeline.

  • 1955: Greenwood and Gleason prove R3(3)=17R_3(3) = 17R3​(3)=17 and Rn+1(3)≤(n+1)(Rn(3)−1)+2R_{n+1}(3) \le (n+1)(R_n(3) - 1) + 2Rn+1​(3)≤(n+1)(Rn​(3)−1)+2 (Theorem 6) (doi).
  • 1961: Baumert finds S(4)=44S(4) = 44S(4)=44 by computer, as reported by Fredricksen and Sweet; they and Heule cite Golomb–Baumert 1965 for it.
  • 1973: Chung proves R4(3)≥51R_4(3) \ge 51R4​(3)≥51 (doi).
  • 1997: Wan bounds Rn(3)R_n(3)Rn​(3) and, for even n≥6n \ge 6n≥6, states Sn<n! (e−e−1+3)/2−n+2S_n < n!\,(e - e^{-1} + 3)/2 - n + 2Sn​<n!(e−e−1+3)/2−n+2 (zbMATH 0882.05095 summary; doi). If his SnS_nSn​ is the least NNN that forces a monochromatic solution, this is the centred bound below, applied to his own bound on Rn−1(3)R_{n-1}(3)Rn−1​(3); if it is the largest NNN, it is 111 above it. His proof was not read.
  • 2000: Fredricksen and Sweet prove S(6)≥536S(6) \ge 536S(6)≥536 (doi).
  • 2004: Fettes, Kramer and Radziszowski prove R4(3)≤62R_4(3) \le 62R4​(3)≤62 (listed in DS1, which also lists R5(3)≤307R_5(3) \le 307R5​(3)≤307).
  • 2018: Heule proves S(5)=160S(5) = 160S(5)=160 with a certified SAT computation (AAAI-18; preprint arXiv:1711.08076).
  • 2026: a public repository of M. Tatarevic gives a computer-assisted argument for R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61. Its Lean development assumes that a family of 56,830 SAT instances is unsatisfiable, and the repository records solver results for them. The project of this mission's author produced LRAT certificates for all 56,830 instances and checked them; the report is in the repository's issue tracker. This mission does not depend on it.

The first target is a centred-interval bound: if Rk(3)≤rR_k(3) \le rRk​(3)≤r, then S(k+1)≤2(k+1)⌊(r−1)/2⌋+1S(k+1) \le 2(k+1)\lfloor (r-1)/2 \rfloor + 1S(k+1)≤2(k+1)⌊(r−1)/2⌋+1. With R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61 the recursive bound gives R5(3)≤302R_5(3) \le 302R5​(3)≤302, and the centred bound gives S(6)≤1801S(6) \le 1801S(6)≤1801; with R5(3)≤307R_5(3) \le 307R5​(3)≤307 it gives only 183718371837. The mission formalizes what a Schur colouring of [1,1801][1, 1801][1,1801] with six colours would have to look like under R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61.

Setting

All numbers are natural numbers, N={0,1,2,… }\mathbb{N} = \{0, 1, 2, \dots\}N={0,1,2,…}, and [a,b]={a,…,b}[a, b] = \{a, \dots, b\}[a,b]={a,…,b}.

Schur colourings and covers. A colouring with nnn colours is a map c:N→Fin nc : \mathbb{N} \to \mathrm{Fin}\,nc:N→Finn. It is a Schur colouring of [1,N][1, N][1,N] (SchurColoring N c) if there are no x,y≥1x, y \ge 1x,y≥1 with x+y≤Nx + y \le Nx+y≤N and c(x)=c(y)=c(x+y)c(x) = c(y) = c(x + y)c(x)=c(y)=c(x+y), the case x=yx = yx=y included. The cover form uses SumFree S and CoveredBySumFree X n (XXX lies in the union of nnn sumfree sets); for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 the two bridge theorems pass between the two forms in both directions.

Triangle Ramsey property. TR(k,r)\mathrm{TR}(k, r)TR(k,r) (TriangleRamsey k r): every colouring with at most kkk colours of the pairs x<yx < yx<y of a finite set of at least rrr naturals has a monochromatic triangle. For k≥1k \ge 1k≥1 it is the inequality Rk(3)≤rR_k(3) \le rRk​(3)≤r.

Neighbourhoods. The difference colouring gives a pair {x,y}\{x, y\}{x,y} the colour c(∣x−y∣)c(|x - y|)c(∣x−y∣). For a Schur colouring of [1,N][1, N][1,N] it has no monochromatic triangle on [0,N][0, N][0,N], since (y−x)+(z−y)=z−x(y - x) + (z - y) = z - x(y−x)+(z−y)=z−x. Write

  • Γi(V,v)={ w∈V:w≠v, c(∣v−w∣)=i }\Gamma_i(V, v) = \{\, w \in V : w \ne v,\ c(|v - w|) = i \,\}Γi​(V,v)={w∈V:w=v, c(∣v−w∣)=i} (colorNbhd c V v i);
  • Vm=Γc(m+1)([0,2m+1],m)V_m = \Gamma_{c(m+1)}([0, 2m+1], m)Vm​=Γc(m+1)​([0,2m+1],m), the central neighbourhood (centralNbhd c m), which contains 2m+12m + 12m+1;
  • Pi=Γi(Vm,2m+1)P_i = \Gamma_i(V_m, 2m+1)Pi​=Γi​(Vm​,2m+1), the endpoint neighbourhoods (endpointNbhd c m i).

The frontier. The frontier hypotheses are TR(k,u+1)\mathrm{TR}(k, u + 1)TR(k,u+1), 2t=(k+1)u2t = (k+1)u2t=(k+1)u, m=(k+2)tm = (k+2)tm=(k+2)t, and ccc a Schur colouring of [1,2m+1][1, 2m + 1][1,2m+1] with k+2k + 2k+2 colours. From the first two, TR(k+1,2t+2)\mathrm{TR}(k + 1, 2t + 2)TR(k+1,2t+2) holds, and the centred bound excludes Schur colourings of [1,2m+2][1, 2m + 2][1,2m+2] with k+2k + 2k+2 colours; [1,2m+1][1, 2m + 1][1,2m+1] is the frontier interval. Six colours: k=4k = 4k=4, u=60u = 60u=60, t=150t = 150t=150, m=900m = 900m=900, 2m+1=18012m + 1 = 18012m+1=1801.

Example. For k=1k = 1k=1, u=2u = 2u=2, t=2t = 2t=2, m=6m = 6m=6 (and 13=S(3)13 = S(3)13=S(3)), the classes {1,4,7,10,13}\{1, 4, 7, 10, 13\}{1,4,7,10,13}, {2,3,11,12}\{2, 3, 11, 12\}{2,3,11,12}, {5,6,8,9}\{5, 6, 8, 9\}{5,6,8,9} form a Schur colouring of [1,13][1, 13][1,13], with V6={2,5,7,10,13}V_6 = \{2, 5, 7, 10, 13\}V6​={2,5,7,10,13} and endpoint neighbourhoods {2,10}\{2, 10\}{2,10} and {5,7}\{5, 7\}{5,7}, both closed under x↦12−xx \mapsto 12 - xx↦12−x.

Formalization targets

Goal: six colours under R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61

TR(4,61)  and  c a Schur colouring of [1,1801] with six colours  ⟹  (1)–(5),\mathrm{TR}(4, 61) \ \text{ and } \ c \text{ a Schur colouring of } [1, 1801] \text{ with six colours} \implies (1)\text{–}(5),TR(4,61)  and  c a Schur colouring of [1,1801] with six colours⟹(1)–(5),

where q=c(901)q = c(901)q=c(901), V=V900V = V_{900}V=V900​ and Pi=Γi(V,1801)P_i = \Gamma_i(V, 1801)Pi​=Γi​(V,1801):

  1. each colour occurs 150150150 times in [1,900][1, 900][1,900];
  2. ∣V∣=301|V| = 301∣V∣=301;
  3. ∣Γi(V,v)∣=60|\Gamma_i(V, v)| = 60∣Γi​(V,v)∣=60 for every v∈Vv \in Vv∈V and every colour i≠qi \ne qi=q;
  4. c(901−d)=c(901+d)c(901 - d) = c(901 + d)c(901−d)=c(901+d) for every d∈[1,900]d \in [1, 900]d∈[1,900] with c(d)=qc(d) = qc(d)=q;
  5. for every colour i≠qi \ne qi=q: ∣Pi∣=60|P_i| = 60∣Pi​∣=60; x↦1800−xx \mapsto 1800 - xx↦1800−x maps PiP_iPi​ to itself without fixed points; and c(∣x−y∣)∉{i,q}c(|x - y|) \notin \{i, q\}c(∣x−y∣)∈/{i,q} for distinct x,y∈Pix, y \in P_ix,y∈Pi​.

The goal is a structure theorem under the hypothesis R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61. It does not prove S(6)≤1800S(6) \le 1800S(6)≤1800, and it does not assert that a Schur colouring of [1,1801][1, 1801][1,1801] with six colours exists; whether such a colouring, or the structure it would force, exists is open. The goal is the six-colour instance of the general theorems below.

Centred-interval bound

TR(k,r)  ⟹  [1, 2(k+1)⌊r−12⌋+2] is not covered by k+1 sumfree sets.\mathrm{TR}(k, r) \implies \Bigl[1,\ 2(k+1)\Bigl\lfloor \tfrac{r-1}{2} \Bigr\rfloor + 2\Bigr] \text{ is not covered by } k + 1 \text{ sumfree sets.}TR(k,r)⟹[1, 2(k+1)⌊2r−1​⌋+2] is not covered by k+1 sumfree sets.

Balanced colour classes

TR(k,2t+2), m=(k+1)t, c a Schur colouring of [1,2m+1] with k+1 colours  ⟹  ∣{ d∈[1,m]:c(d)=j }∣=t  for every colour j.\mathrm{TR}(k, 2t + 2),\ m = (k+1)t,\ c \text{ a Schur colouring of } [1, 2m+1] \text{ with } k + 1 \text{ colours} \implies \bigl|\{\, d \in [1, m] : c(d) = j \,\}\bigr| = t \ \text{ for every colour } j.TR(k,2t+2), m=(k+1)t, c a Schur colouring of [1,2m+1] with k+1 colours⟹​{d∈[1,m]:c(d)=j}​=t  for every colour j.

Nested saturation

frontier hypotheses  ⟹  ∣Γi(Vm,v)∣=u(v∈Vm, i≠c(m+1)).\text{frontier hypotheses} \implies |\Gamma_i(V_m, v)| = u \qquad (v \in V_m,\ i \ne c(m+1)).frontier hypotheses⟹∣Γi​(Vm​,v)∣=u(v∈Vm​, i=c(m+1)).

Automorphism extension

For a colouring col\mathrm{col}col of ordered pairs, a finite set WWW, a point e∉We \notin We∈/W and a map JJJ with J(W)⊆WJ(W) \subseteq WJ(W)⊆W, J∘J=idJ \circ J = \mathrm{id}J∘J=id on WWW and col(J(x),J(y))=col(x,y)\mathrm{col}(J(x), J(y)) = \mathrm{col}(x, y)col(J(x),J(y))=col(x,y) on WWW:

v∈W and J(v) have equal colour degrees in W∪{e}  ⟹  col(v,e)=col(J(v),e).v \in W \text{ and } J(v) \text{ have equal colour degrees in } W \cup \{e\} \implies \mathrm{col}(v, e) = \mathrm{col}(J(v), e).v∈W and J(v) have equal colour degrees in W∪{e}⟹col(v,e)=col(J(v),e).

Forced reflection

frontier hypotheses  ⟹  c(m+1−d)=c(m+1+d)(d∈[1,m], c(d)=c(m+1)).\text{frontier hypotheses} \implies c(m + 1 - d) = c(m + 1 + d) \qquad (d \in [1, m],\ c(d) = c(m+1)).frontier hypotheses⟹c(m+1−d)=c(m+1+d)(d∈[1,m], c(d)=c(m+1)).

The saturation degree is even

frontier hypotheses  ⟹  u is even.\text{frontier hypotheses} \implies u \text{ is even}.frontier hypotheses⟹u is even.

Significance

The result itself. Under R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61, S(6)≤1801S(6) \le 1801S(6)≤1801, and the goal constrains a six-colour Schur colouring of [1,1801][1, 1801][1,1801] as listed above. In particular, each of its five endpoint neighbourhoods is a set of 303030 pairs {900−d,900+d}\{900 - d, 900 + d\}{900−d,900+d} whose difference colouring uses at most four colours, is invariant under x↦1800−xx \mapsto 1800 - xx↦1800−x and, like that of every subset of [0,1801][0, 1801][0,1801], has no monochromatic triangle. So such a colouring yields five colourings of K60K_{60}K60​ with at most four colours, no monochromatic triangle and a fixed-point-free colour-preserving involution. A proof that this configuration cannot occur would give S(6)≤1800S(6) \le 1800S(6)≤1800 under the same hypothesis. Whether it can occur, and whether S(6)≤1800S(6) \le 1800S(6)≤1800, are open.

Formalizing it. All 12 theorems of the tree, the goal included, are proved in Lean 4 with Mathlib over the bundles ClassicalSchurBasic, ClassicalSchurRamsey and ClassicalSchurColoring, with the axioms propext, Classical.choice and Quot.sound only. Independent Claude agents checked the Lean: one rebuilt the frontier theorems, re-ran their axiom audit and checked their statements against the argument; another checked every statement of the tree against the mathematics. The mathematics is in the paper S(6)≤1801S(6) \le 1801S(6)≤1801 if R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61: a centred Schur bound and the structure at the frontier (A. McKenna, Zenodo, 2026, doi:10.5281/zenodo.23156099), and the Lean code is in its repository; the paper has not been refereed. R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61 is not formalized in the mission.

Difficulty

The centred bound counts, for one colour class, the points h±ah \pm ah±a around the centre of the interval. At the frontier every such count is tight: each colour has ttt elements in [1,m][1, m][1,m], and inside VmV_mVm​ each colour other than c(m+1)c(m+1)c(m+1) has degree uuu, the largest value that Rk(3)≤u+1R_k(3) \le u + 1Rk​(3)≤u+1 allows. So no single counting step gives a contradiction, and the theorems describe the tight case instead of excluding it. The first exclusion that the structure gives, parity, works only for odd uuu; at six colours u=60u = 60u=60.

The reflection is not a property of Schur colourings in general: the colouring {1,4}\{1, 4\}{1,4}, {2,3}\{2, 3\}{2,3}, {5}\{5\}{5} of [1,5][1, 5][1,5] has c(2)=c(3)c(2) = c(3)c(2)=c(3) but c(1)≠c(5)c(1) \ne c(5)c(1)=c(5). At the frontier the theorem asserts it only for the ddd with c(d)=c(m+1)c(d) = c(m+1)c(d)=c(m+1), so an argument that assumes a fully symmetric colouring proves a different statement. A direct search is no substitute: S(5)=160S(5) = 160S(5)=160 already needed a large certified SAT computation (Heule 2018), and [1,1801][1, 1801][1,1801] with six colours is a much larger instance.

Formalization scope

  • Colourings are functions ℕ → Fin n on all of N\mathbb{N}N; SchurColoring N c constrains only [1,N][1, N][1,N], with x=yx = yx=y allowed. Distances are Nat.dist.
  • Neighbourhoods are Finsets. VmV_mVm​ lies in range (2 * m + 2) =[0,2m+1]= [0, 2m+1]=[0,2m+1], so the point 000 is a candidate member; the centre mmm never is.
  • TriangleRamsey k r takes colours from any Finset of at most kkk naturals; the pair colouring ℕ → ℕ → ℕ is constrained only on the pairs x<yx < yx<y of the vertex set, which is any finite set of naturals. TriangleRamsey k 0 and TriangleRamsey k 1 are false.
  • Covers. CoveredBySumFree X n uses Fin n → Set ℕ; the sets need not be disjoint or lie in XXX.
  • Subtraction is truncated. Under the hypotheses, none of r−1r - 1r−1, N−1N - 1N−1, m+1−dm + 1 - dm+1−d, 2m−x2m - x2m−x (with x∈Pix \in P_ix∈Pi​), 901−d901 - d901−d and 1800−x1800 - x1800−x truncates.
  • No trivialization. The frontier theorems are vacuous for u=0u = 0u=0, and for k=0k = 0k=0 (then [1,2m+1]⊇[1,5][1, 2m + 1] \supseteq [1, 5][1,2m+1]⊇[1,5], while S(2)=4S(2) = 4S(2)=4). For k=1k = 1k=1 they are not: the Schur colourings of [1,13][1, 13][1,13] meet the hypotheses, and every conclusion can be checked by hand. The goal holds vacuously if R4(3)>61R_4(3) > 61R4​(3)>61 or if no six-colour Schur colouring of [1,1801][1, 1801][1,1801] exists; it is a structure theorem, not a claim that such a colouring exists.

Bundles: ClassicalSchurBasic (SumFree, CoveredBySumFree) and ClassicalSchurRamsey (TriangleRamsey) are already public; ClassicalSchurColoring holds SchurColoring, colorNbhd, centralNbhd and endpointNbhd. Reusable: the colouring–cover bridges, the pigeonhole step, the centred bound for every kkk, and the automorphism-extension lemma (arbitrary types). Welcome beyond the targets: a formal proof of TriangleRamsey 4 61, and results on whether the configuration of five paired 606060-point sets exists.

Provenance: the centred-interval argument was first written by an AI agent based on ChatGPT (OpenAI) in a project discussion on 2026-09-27, and a Claude (Anthropic) agent audited it. The balance, saturation and reflection argument was proposed by an AI agent based on ChatGPT (OpenAI) in a project discussion; Claude checked each step and restated it with explicit hypotheses. Claude wrote the Lean proofs of both parts; the independent checks are described under Formalizing it.

Selected references

  • R. E. Greenwood, A. M. Gleason, Combinatorial relations and chromatic graphs, Canad. J. Math. 7 (1955) 1–7. https://doi.org/10.4153/CJM-1955-001-4
  • S. W. Golomb, L. D. Baumert, Backtrack programming, J. ACM 12 (1965) 516–524. https://doi.org/10.1145/321296.321300
  • F. R. K. Chung, On the Ramsey numbers N(3,3,…,3;2)N(3, 3, \dots, 3; 2)N(3,3,…,3;2), Discrete Math. 5 (1973) 317–321. https://doi.org/10.1016/0012-365X(73)90125-8
  • H. Fredricksen, M. M. Sweet, Symmetric sum-free partitions and lower bounds for Schur numbers, Electron. J. Combin. 7 (2000) #R32. https://doi.org/10.37236/1510
  • M. J. H. Heule, Schur number five, Proc. AAAI Conf. Artif. Intell. 32 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v32i1.12209 ; preprint arXiv:1711.08076 (2017). https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.08076
  • S. P. Radziszowski, Small Ramsey numbers, Electron. J. Combin., Dynamic Survey DS1, revision 18, 2026. https://doi.org/10.37236/21
  • M. Tatarevic, An improved upper bound for the Ramsey number R(3,3,3,3), GitHub repository, 2026, commit ddd7755. https://github.com/milostatarevic/r3333-upper-bound/commit/ddd7755476db3f0751181db0daec75342576cdd1
  • A. McKenna, S(6)≤1801S(6) \le 1801S(6)≤1801 if R4(3)≤61R_4(3) \le 61R4​(3)≤61: a centred Schur bound and the structure at the frontier, Zenodo, 2026. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23156099 ; Lean code: https://github.com/mysticflounder/schur-centred-bound (release v1.0.1).
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Projection-like Retractions on Matrix Manifolds IV: Within σ_r(X̄)/2 of a Rank-r Matrix, the Truncated SVD Is the Unique Nearest Matrix of Rank Exactly rResearch Paper

Motivation

Optimization over sets of matrices of fixed rank comes up in low-rank matrix completion, model reduction, and the low-rank approximation of solutions of large matrix equations. A standard approach treats the constraint set as a Riemannian manifold and runs gradient or Newton-type methods on it (Absil, Mahony & Sepulchre 2008). Each iteration takes a step in the tangent space and then has to return to the manifold. A map that does this to first order is called a retraction, and its cost is often what decides whether a manifold method is practical.

Absil and Malick (2012) study retractions defined by projection: step to X+ZX+ZX+Z in the ambient space, then take the nearest point of the manifold. Their Proposition 3.2 shows that for any CkC^kCk submanifold (k≥2k\ge2k≥2) this projective retraction is a retraction. Section 3.2 makes it explicit for the manifold of fixed-rank matrices: near any matrix of rank rrr, the nearest matrix of rank exactly rrr is the truncated singular value decomposition (Proposition 3.3). Section 4.4 also gives a closed form for a second retraction on the same manifold, the orthographic retraction (Proposition 4.11).

Setting

Fix natural numbers nnn, mmm and r≥1r\ge1r≥1. The space Rn×m\mathbb R^{n\times m}Rn×m of real n×mn\times mn×m matrices carries the Frobenius norm ∥X∥2=∑i,jXij2=trace⁡(X⊤X)\|X\|^2=\sum_{i,j}X_{ij}^2=\operatorname{trace}(X^\top X)∥X∥2=∑i,j​Xij2​=trace(X⊤X) (3.6). The fixed-rank set is

Rr={X∈Rn×m: rank⁡(X)=r},\mathcal R_r=\{X\in\mathbb R^{n\times m}:\ \operatorname{rank}(X)=r\},Rr​={X∈Rn×m: rank(X)=r},

a smooth submanifold of Rn×m\mathbb R^{n\times m}Rn×m. It is not closed: its closure is the set of matrices of rank at most rrr.

A singular value decomposition (3.5) of XXX is a factorization X=UΣV⊤X=U\Sigma V^\topX=UΣV⊤ in which U=[u1,…,un]∈Rn×nU=[u_1,\dots,u_n]\in\mathbb R^{n\times n}U=[u1​,…,un​]∈Rn×n and V=[v1,…,vm]∈Rm×mV=[v_1,\dots,v_m]\in\mathbb R^{m\times m}V=[v1​,…,vm​]∈Rm×m are orthogonal and Σ∈Rn×m\Sigma\in\mathbb R^{n\times m}Σ∈Rn×m is zero off its diagonal. The diagonal of Σ\SigmaΣ holds the singular values of XXX in nonincreasing order,

σ1(X)≥σ2(X)≥⋯≥σmin⁡{n,m}(X)≥0,\sigma_1(X)\ge\sigma_2(X)\ge\cdots\ge\sigma_{\min\{n,m\}}(X)\ge0,σ1​(X)≥σ2​(X)≥⋯≥σmin{n,m}​(X)≥0,

and σi(X)=0\sigma_i(X)=0σi​(X)=0 for i>min⁡{n,m}i>\min\{n,m\}i>min{n,m}. A matrix has rank rrr exactly when σr(X)>0=σr+1(X)\sigma_r(X)>0=\sigma_{r+1}(X)σr​(X)>0=σr+1​(X). The truncated SVD of rank rrr is X^=∑i=1rσi(X)uivi⊤\hat X=\sum_{i=1}^r\sigma_i(X)u_iv_i^\topX^=∑i=1r​σi​(X)ui​vi⊤​ (3.7).

For a set QQQ and a point XXX, the projection PQ(X)P_Q(X)PQ​(X) is the set of nearest points: the Y∈QY\in QY∈Q with ∥X−Y∥≤∥X−W∥\|X-Y\|\le\|X-W\|∥X−Y∥≤∥X−W∥ for all W∈QW\in QW∈Q. For a set that is not closed, PQ(X)P_Q(X)PQ​(X) may be empty or contain several points.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 3.3

Let Xˉ∈Rr\bar X\in\mathcal R_rXˉ∈Rr​. For every XXX with ∥X−Xˉ∥<σr(Xˉ)/2\|X-\bar X\|<\sigma_r(\bar X)/2∥X−Xˉ∥<σr​(Xˉ)/2 and every singular value decomposition X=UΣV⊤X=U\Sigma V^\topX=UΣV⊤,

PRr(X)={∑i=1rσi(X) uivi⊤}.P_{\mathcal R_r}(X)=\Bigl\{\sum_{i=1}^r\sigma_i(X)\,u_iv_i^\top\Bigr\}.PRr​​(X)={i=1∑r​σi​(X)ui​vi⊤​}.

The projection exists, is unique, and is the truncated SVD. The radius σr(Xˉ)/2\sigma_r(\bar X)/2σr​(Xˉ)/2 and the strict inequality are those of the paper.

Milestones

The paper's proof goes through four claims, which are the milestones in attack order:

  1. Weyl's bound (§3.2, proof of Proposition 3.3, citing Horn–Johnson 7.3.8): ∣σi(Xˉ)−σi(X)∣≤∥X−Xˉ∥|\sigma_i(\bar X)-\sigma_i(X)|\le\|X-\bar X\|∣σi​(Xˉ)−σi​(X)∣≤∥X−Xˉ∥ for every i≥1i\ge1i≥1.
  2. Eckart–Young (3.7): for every singular value decomposition of XXX, X^\hat XX^ is a nearest matrix to XXX of rank at most rrr.
  3. The gap (3.8): if rank⁡Xˉ=r\operatorname{rank}\bar X=rrankXˉ=r and ∥X−Xˉ∥<σr(Xˉ)/2\|X-\bar X\|<\sigma_r(\bar X)/2∥X−Xˉ∥<σr​(Xˉ)/2, then σr+1(X)<σr(Xˉ)/2<σr(X)\sigma_{r+1}(X)<\sigma_r(\bar X)/2<\sigma_r(X)σr+1​(X)<σr​(Xˉ)/2<σr​(X).
  4. Uniqueness under a gap (§3.2, proof of Proposition 3.3, citing Helmke–Moore): if σr(X)>σr+1(X)\sigma_r(X)>\sigma_{r+1}(X)σr​(X)>σr+1​(X), then X^\hat XX^ is the only nearest matrix of rank at most rrr.

Further result: Proposition 4.11

Write X=U[Σ0000]V⊤X=U\left[\begin{smallmatrix}\Sigma_0&0\\0&0\end{smallmatrix}\right]V^\topX=U[Σ0​0​00​]V⊤ (4.7), with Σ0\Sigma_0Σ0​ the positive diagonal of nonzero singular values, and a tangent vector Z=U[ACB0]V⊤Z=U\left[\begin{smallmatrix}A&C\\B&0\end{smallmatrix}\right]V^\topZ=U[AB​C0​]V⊤ (4.8). If Σ0+A\Sigma_0+AΣ0​+A is invertible, the orthographic retraction is

R(X,Z)=U[Σ0+ACBB(Σ0+A)−1C]V⊤.R(X,Z)=U\begin{bmatrix}\Sigma_0+A&C\\B&B(\Sigma_0+A)^{-1}C\end{bmatrix}V^\top .R(X,Z)=U[Σ0​+AB​CB(Σ0​+A)−1C​]V⊤.

Here R(X,Z)R(X,Z)R(X,Z) is the nearest point to X+ZX+ZX+Z of Rr∩(X+Z+NRr(X))\mathcal R_r\cap(X+Z+N_{\mathcal R_r}(X))Rr​∩(X+Z+NRr​​(X)).

Significance

The result. Proposition 3.3 reduces the projective retraction on Rr\mathcal R_rRr​ to one truncated singular value decomposition. With Proposition 3.2 this gives an explicit, computable retraction for Riemannian optimization on fixed-rank matrices. It is used, for instance, in low-rank matrix completion algorithms. The point is local: Rr\mathcal R_rRr​ is not closed, so far from Rr\mathcal R_rRr​ the nearest matrix of rank exactly rrr need not exist, and the proposition gives an explicit radius on which it does exist and is unique. Proposition 4.11 gives a second retraction that needs only products of matrices and one r×rr\times rr×r inverse.

Formalizing it. All results here are proved, on paper. To the best of a search of Mathlib and the Prove2Me catalog, none is machine-checked. Mathlib has singular values of linear maps between finite-dimensional inner product spaces (LinearMap.singularValues), but no singular value decomposition in matrix form, no Weyl perturbation inequality for singular values, and no Eckart–Young theorem. A complete development would add these, and the Eckart–Young theorem with its uniqueness case is a standard result of numerical linear algebra in its own right.

Difficulty

The proof in the paper is short only because it cites three facts, and each of them is a real piece of matrix analysis.

  • Weyl's bound needs the variational (min–max) description of singular values, which Mathlib does not have for singular values.
  • Eckart–Young requires comparing ∥X−Y∥\|X-Y\|∥X−Y∥ with the singular values of XXX for every YYY of rank at most rrr, not only for those diagonal in the same bases. The obvious approach, writing YYY in the singular bases of XXX, fails because YYY need not be diagonal there.
  • Uniqueness under the gap requires showing that every minimizer is diagonal in some singular bases of XXX and then using the gap to fix its support. Without the gap uniqueness fails: for X=I2X=I_2X=I2​ and r=1r=1r=1 every uu⊤uu^\topuu⊤ with ∥u∥=1\|u\|=1∥u∥=1 is a nearest point.

A further subtlety: Proposition 3.3 must hold for any singular value decomposition of XXX. Singular vectors are not unique, so the proof has to show that the truncation does not depend on the choice under the gap (3.8).

Formalization scope

Matrices are Matrix (Fin n) (Fin m) ℝ with Mathlib's Frobenius norm (open scoped Matrix.Norms.Frobenius). The projection is the published platform predicate RandomGradFree.Nonsmooth.IsMetricProjection, and PRr(X)P_{\mathcal R_r}(X)PRr​​(X) is the set {Y | IsMetricProjection (rankSet r) X Y}. The set equality with a singleton states existence, uniqueness and the formula together.

Conventions committed to:

  • sv X i is σi(X)\sigma_i(X)σi​(X), 1-based as on the page. It is Mathlib's 0-based singularValues of Matrix.toEuclideanLin X at i - 1, so the index 000 is meaningless and every statement uses indices ≥1\ge1≥1.
  • IsSVD X U S V is the predicate of (3.5). The singular value decomposition is a hypothesis of the theorems, never a choice made inside them, so the theorems hold for every singular value decomposition.
  • truncSVD r U S V is ∑i≤rΣiiuivi⊤\sum_{i\le r}\Sigma_{ii}u_iv_i^\top∑i≤r​Σii​ui​vi⊤​, written with the diagonal of S. That these entries are the singular values σi(X)\sigma_i(X)σi​(X) is a fact to be proved, not part of the definition.
  • The hypothesis r≥1r\ge1r≥1 is added, because σr\sigma_rσr​ needs it (and R0={0}\mathcal R_0=\{0\}R0​={0}). It is the only hypothesis of Proposition 3.3 not printed on the page.
  • In Proposition 4.11, matrices use the block index types Fin r ⊕ Fin p and Fin r ⊕ Fin q. The tangent vector and the normal space are taken in the form the page gives, and invertibility of Σ0+A\Sigma_0+AΣ0​+A is an explicit hypothesis. In the paper's proof it comes from "ZZZ in a neighborhood of the origin".

A formalization in which the radius is replaced by a smaller one, the projection is taken onto the matrices of rank at most rrr, or the singular value decomposition is chosen inside the statement is a different theorem and is ruled out.

Wanted contributions, all reusable beyond this mission:

  • existence of a singular value decomposition in matrix form, and the identification of its diagonal with singularValues;
  • Weyl's inequality for singular values;
  • the Eckart–Young theorem and its uniqueness case;
  • the Schur-complement rank formula for 2×22\times22×2 block matrices, used for Proposition 4.11.

Selected references

  • P.-A. Absil and J. Malick, Projection-like retractions on matrix manifolds, SIAM J. Optim. 22(1):135–158, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1137/100802529 (authors' version HAL hal-00651608v2: https://hal.science/hal-00651608v2)
  • P.-A. Absil, R. Mahony and R. Sepulchre, Optimization Algorithms on Matrix Manifolds, Princeton University Press, 2008. https://press.princeton.edu/absil
  • C. Eckart and G. Young, The approximation of one matrix by another of lower rank, Psychometrika 1(3):211–218, 1936. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02288367
  • R. A. Horn and C. R. Johnson, Matrix Analysis, Cambridge University Press, 1985 (§7.3, §7.4). https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511810817
  • U. Helmke and J. B. Moore, Optimization and Dynamical Systems, Springer, 1994 (Ch. 5). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3467-1
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Graph TheoryLinear OptimizationOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources VI: Stable, Semistable, Pseudostable and Quasistable Schedules Are Extreme Points of the Feasible RegionTextbook

Motivation

Resource-constrained project scheduling with minimum and maximum time lags is the model behind make-to-order production, process-industry batch planning and large engineering projects. When the objective is the project duration or another regular function (nondecreasing in every start time), an optimum can be found among schedules that cannot be shifted to the left. Many objectives in practice are nonregular: net present value, earliness–tardiness costs, resource levelling and resource investment. For these, delaying an activity can pay, and "shift as far left as possible" no longer identifies a finite set of candidate schedules.

Neumann, Nübel and Schwindt (Math. Methods Oper. Res. 52, 2000) answered this with classes of schedules defined by the absence of pairs of opposite shifts: stable, semistable, pseudostable and quasistable schedules, the mirror image of active, semiactive, pseudoactive and quasiactive schedules. Section 3.2 of Neumann, Schwindt and Zimmermann, Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources (Springer 2003), shows that these classes are exactly the extreme points of the feasible region and of its natural convex pieces. The classification of objective functions in §3.3, and every enumeration scheme of the later chapter, rests on that correspondence.

Setting

A project has activities V={0,1,…,n+1}V=\{0,1,\dots,n+1\}V={0,1,…,n+1} with n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Activity 000 is the project beginning and n+1n+1n+1 the project completion. Activity iii has an integer duration pip_ipi​, with p0=pn+1=0p_0=p_{n+1}=0p0​=pn+1​=0 and pi>0p_i>0pi​>0 otherwise. The project network NNN has node set VVV and arcs ⟨i,j⟩∈E\langle i,j\rangle\in E⟨i,j⟩∈E with integer weights δij\delta_{ij}δij​, each encoding a temporal constraint Sj−Si≥δijS_j-S_i\ge\delta_{ij}Sj​−Si​≥δij​. A prescribed deadline dˉ∈N\bar d\in\mathbb Ndˉ∈N is included as the backward arc ⟨n+1,0⟩\langle n+1,0\rangle⟨n+1,0⟩ of weight −dˉ-\bar d−dˉ. Renewable resources kkk have capacities RkR_kRk​, and activity iii uses rik≤Rkr_{ik}\le R_krik​≤Rk​ units while it runs.

A schedule is a vector S∈Rn+2S\in\mathbb R^{n+2}S∈Rn+2 of start times. The time-feasible region ST\mathcal S_TST​ collects the schedules with S0=0S_0=0S0​=0, S≥0S\ge0S≥0 and Sj−Si≥δijS_j-S_i\ge\delta_{ij}Sj​−Si​≥δij​ on every arc; it is a polyhedron, and a polytope when every activity precedes n+1n+1n+1 as in Remarks 1.1.2. A schedule is resource-feasible if at every time t≥0t\ge0t≥0 the running activities A(S,t)={i∣Si≤t<Si+pi}\mathcal A(S,t)=\{i\mid S_i\le t<S_i+p_i\}A(S,t)={i∣Si​≤t<Si​+pi​} use at most RkR_kRk​ units of every resource. The feasible region is S=ST∩SR\mathcal S=\mathcal S_T\cap\mathcal S_RS=ST​∩SR​. It is in general neither convex nor connected.

A schedule induces the strict order O(S)={(i,j)∣i≠j, Sj≥Si+pi}O(S)=\{(i,j)\mid i\ne j,\ S_j\ge S_i+p_i\}O(S)={(i,j)∣i=j, Sj​≥Si​+pi​}. For a strict order OOO, the order polytope is ST(O)={S∈ST∣Sj≥Si+pi ((i,j)∈O)}\mathcal S_T(O)=\{S\in\mathcal S_T\mid S_j\ge S_i+p_i\ ((i,j)\in O)\}ST​(O)={S∈ST​∣Sj​≥Si​+pi​ ((i,j)∈O)}. The order OOO is feasible if ∅≠ST(O)⊆S\emptyset\ne\mathcal S_T(O)\subseteq\mathcal S∅=ST​(O)⊆S. The schedule polytope of SSS is ST(O(S))\mathcal S_T(O(S))ST​(O(S)).

A shift moves a schedule SSS to S′≠SS'\neq SS′=S. It is global if both are feasible, local if in addition a continuous path inside S\mathcal SS joins them, order-preserving if O(S)⊆O(S′)O(S)\subseteq O(S')O(S)⊆O(S′), and order-monotone if O(S)O(S)O(S) and O(S′)O(S')O(S′) are comparable. Two shifts from SSS to S′S'S′ and S′′S''S′′ are opposite if S′′−S=λ(S′−S)S''-S=\lambda(S'-S)S′′−S=λ(S′−S) with λ<0\lambda<0λ<0. A feasible schedule is stable, semistable, pseudostable or quasistable if no pair of opposite global, local, order-monotone or order-preserving shifts, respectively, starts at it. It is antiactive if no global right-shift starts at it.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2.10

For every feasible schedule SSS:

(a) S antiactive  ⟺  S maximal in S,(b) S stable  ⟺  S∈ext⁡S,(c) S semistable  ⟺  S∈ext⁡CS, CS the component of S containing S,(d) S pseudostable  ⟺  S∈ext⁡ST(O) for all feasible O⊆O(S),(e) S quasistable  ⟺  S∈ext⁡ST(O(S)).\begin{aligned} &\text{(a) } S\text{ antiactive}\iff S\text{ maximal in }\mathcal S, \qquad \text{(b) } S\text{ stable}\iff S\in\operatorname{ext}\mathcal S,\\ &\text{(c) } S\text{ semistable}\iff S\in\operatorname{ext}C_S,\ C_S\text{ the component of }\mathcal S\text{ containing }S,\\ &\text{(d) } S\text{ pseudostable}\iff S\in\operatorname{ext}\mathcal S_T(O)\ \text{for all feasible }O\subseteq O(S),\\ &\text{(e) } S\text{ quasistable}\iff S\in\operatorname{ext}\mathcal S_T(O(S)). \end{aligned}​(a) S antiactive⟺S maximal in S,(b) S stable⟺S∈extS,(c) S semistable⟺S∈extCS​, CS​ the component of S containing S,(d) S pseudostable⟺S∈extST​(O) for all feasible O⊆O(S),(e) S quasistable⟺S∈extST​(O(S)).​

Milestones

  • Lemma 3.2.4: opposite order-preserving or order-monotone shifts can be taken uniform (all moved activities move by one common amount).
  • Lemma 3.2.8: pseudostable schedules are the local extreme points of S\mathcal SS, the points on no segment that lies entirely in S\mathcal SS.
  • Lemma 3.2.9: when SSS is not pseudostable, a segment through SSS can be found inside one order polytope ST(O)\mathcal S_T(O)ST​(O) with O⊆O(S)O\subseteq O(S)O⊆O(S) feasible.
  • Proposition 3.2.13: the quasistable schedules, and every class below them in Fig. 3.2.6, form finite sets.
  • Proposition 3.2.16: every vertex of ST\mathcal S_TST​ is the unique solution of S0=0S_0=0S0​=0, Sj−Si=δijS_j-S_i=\delta_{ij}Sj​−Si​=δij​ on the arcs of a spanning tree of NNN; for the minimal point, an outtree rooted at 000.
  • Theorem 3.2.18: SSS is quasistable iff it is the unique solution of such a tree system in the schedule network N(O(S))N(O(S))N(O(S)).
  • Remark 3.2.7: every activity of a quasistable schedule is tied to another one by a tight duration or time lag, so quasistable schedules are integer-valued.

Significance

The theorem makes four shift-defined classes computable objects: extreme points of explicit polytopes, or of a finite union of them. Together with Proposition 3.2.13, it gives each class of nonregular objective functions in §3.3 a finite candidate set of schedules among which an optimum can be sought (§3.2, p. 207). Theorem 3.2.18 gives the certificate for quasistable schedules: a spanning tree of the schedule network, which the later sections use to enumerate vertices.

The results are proved in the book, except Lemma 3.2.9, whose proof is cited to Neumann, Nübel and Schwindt (2000). As far as a search of the platform shows, none of them has been formalized. A formalization supplies the missing details, among them that connected and path components of S\mathcal SS coincide and the degenerate vertices behind the tree description. It also produces a reusable library of schedule classes on real-valued start times.

Difficulty

Part (b) is close to the definition, since a pair of opposite global shifts is a segment through SSS with feasible endpoints. The content is elsewhere. In (c) the definition speaks of continuous trajectories and the right-hand side of connected components, so the proof needs local path-connectedness of a finite union of polytopes. In (d) the feasible region is not convex: an order-monotone shift keeps SSS and S′S'S′ in a common order polytope, but S′S'S′ and S′′S''S′′ may lie in different ones. The segment through SSS has to be moved into a single order polytope ST(O)\mathcal S_T(O)ST​(O) with O⊆O(S)O\subseteq O(S)O⊆O(S), and that is Lemma 3.2.9. Proposition 3.2.16 and Theorem 3.2.18 need the passage from n+2n+2n+2 linearly independent tight constraints to a spanning tree. They must allow degenerate vertices, where several trees describe the same point, and must represent the nonnegativity constraints Si≥0S_i\ge0Si​≥0 by arcs of the network.

Formalization scope

Activities are Fin (n + 2); start times are real vectors Fin (n + 2) → ℝ with the pointwise order. Durations, capacities and requirements are natural numbers, and time lags integers. The deadline is the arc ⟨n+1,0⟩\langle n+1,0\rangle⟨n+1,0⟩ of weight −dˉ-\bar d−dˉ, which is always present, as §3.1 prescribes. Resource constraints are imposed for every t≥0t\ge0t≥0, not only for 0≤t≤dˉ0\le t\le\bar d0≤t≤dˉ as (3.1.2) writes; the proofs use the first reading. Extreme points are Mathlib's Set.extremePoints ℝ, maximal points are Maximal for the pointwise order, and components are connectedComponentIn. A local shift carries an explicit continuous map from unitInterval into S\mathcal SS. Strict orders are asymmetric, transitive relations on VVV. A spanning tree is an arc set of size n+1n+1n+1 whose underlying simple graph is connected. Its arcs must be arcs of NNN, resp. of N(O(S))N(O(S))N(O(S)), with their network weights, so an arbitrary equation system does not count.

The schedule classes are defined through shifts and nothing else. Defining "stable" as "extreme point", or "pseudostable" as "local extreme point", would make the goal and Lemma 3.2.8 tautologies, and such encodings are ruled out. Proposition 3.2.16 carries the book's standing convention (§1.2, p. 8) that every node is reached from 000 by a walk of nonnegative length. Without it the statement is false.

The definitions duplicate, under this mission's namespace, the model of the book's Chapter 2 missions (order polytopes, shifts, active classes). They are written to be merged with those once published. Contributions on the geometry of finite unions of polytopes, and on spanning-tree bases of difference constraint systems, are reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • K. Neumann, C. Schwindt, J. Zimmermann, Project Scheduling with Time Windows and Scarce Resources, 2nd ed., Springer, 2003, §3.1–3.2. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-24800-2
  • K. Neumann, H. Nübel, C. Schwindt, Active and stable project scheduling, Mathematical Methods of Operations Research 52 (2000), 441–465. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001860000092
  • M. Bartusch, R. H. Möhring, F. J. Radermacher, Scheduling project networks with resource constraints and time windows, Annals of Operations Research 16 (1988), 199–240. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02283745
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 6101 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Vinogradov (1937): every sufficiently large odd integer is a sum of three primes.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's first proved value, 100 001100\,001100001, came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. This entry records a sharper value, 610161016101, from the same elementary circle of ideas.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤6101, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 6101,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤6101, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 610161016101 filled in. The source proves the stronger statement that every odd n≥12 203n \ge 12\,203n≥12203 is a sum of exactly 610161016101 primes; the at-most form for all odd n>1n > 1n>1 follows.

How the bound arises

It keeps the explicit Selberg sieve, Cauchy–Schwarz and Schnirelmann's original sumset inequality from the 100 001100\,001100001 entry, and improves the first moment:

  1. Whole-triangle count. Counting all pairs with p+q≤xp + q \le xp+q≤x gives ∑s≤xr(s)≥2(x−2000)2/(9(log⁡x)2)\sum_{s \le x} r(s) \ge 2(x-2000)^2/(9(\log x)^2)∑s≤x​r(s)≥2(x−2000)2/(9(logx)2) for x≥2000x \ge 2000x≥2000.
  2. Weighting. Weighting r(s)r(s)r(s) by (log⁡s)2/s(\log s)^2/s(logs)2/s cancels the varying factor in the sieve bound r(s)≤9 C(s) s/(log⁡s)2r(s) \le 9\,C(s)\,s/(\log s)^2r(s)≤9C(s)s/(logs)2, giving a weighted first moment of at least 44100x\tfrac{44}{100}x10044​x.
  3. Second moment of CCC. With ∑s≤x, 2∣sC(s)2≤212x\sum_{s \le x,\, 2\mid s} C(s)^2 \le \tfrac{21}{2}x∑s≤x,2∣s​C(s)2≤221​x, Cauchy–Schwarz yields σ(A)≥1/2200\sigma(A) \ge 1/2200σ(A)≥1/2200 for A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B, B={(p−3)/2}B = \{(p-3)/2\}B={(p−3)/2}.
  4. Schnirelmann's inequality with m=1525m = 1525m=1525 (the least mmm with (1−1/2200)m<1/2(1 - 1/2200)^m < 1/2(1−1/2200)m<1/2) gives K=4m+1=6101K = 4m + 1 = 6101K=4m+1=6101.

Significance

The bound is far weaker than Tao's 555 or Helfgott's 333, but it rests on an elementary argument with no "sufficiently large" threshold and no prime number theorem, so it is a realistic target for a complete formalization and a large step down from 100 001100\,001100001. Reusable components:

  1. Explicit Chebyshev-type lower bound for π(y)\pi(y)π(y).
  2. Explicit Selberg upper-bound sieve for r(s)r(s)r(s).
  3. Moment bounds for the singular-series factor C(s)C(s)C(s).
  4. Schnirelmann's inequality σ(D+E)≥σ(D)+σ(E)−σ(D)σ(E)\sigma(D+E) \ge \sigma(D)+\sigma(E)-\sigma(D)\sigma(E)σ(D+E)≥σ(D)+σ(E)−σ(D)σ(E).

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 610161016101 in place of the value. Mathlib already has schnirelmannDensity, the Λ² Selberg sieve setup (Mathlib/NumberTheory/SelbergSieve.lean) and central-binomial bounds.

Selected references

  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • H. A. Helfgott, The ternary Goldbach conjecture is true, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.7748
  • Explicit improvement of the 100 001100\,001100001 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 610161016101; not peer reviewed.
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Number Theory·Captain: xuanji

Every Odd Number Greater Than 1 is the Sum of at Most 97041 PrimesResearch Paper

Motivation

Schnirelmann showed around 1930, by elementary means, that some absolute constant kkk makes every integer n>1n > 1n>1 a sum of at most kkk primes. For odd nnn:

  • Schnirelmann (1930s): some finite kkk, by elementary methods.
  • Vinogradov (1937): every sufficiently large odd integer is a sum of three primes.
  • Ramaré (1995): every even integer is a sum of at most six primes, so every odd n>1n > 1n>1 is a sum of at most seven. (Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa, 1995)
  • Tao (2014): at most five primes. (arXiv:1201.6656)
  • Helfgott (2013): every odd n>5n > 5n>5 is a sum of three primes. (arXiv:1312.7748)

The campaign's first proved value, 100 001100\,001100001, came from Schnirelmann's method with every constant written out. This entry records a sharper value, 97 04197\,04197041, from the same elementary circle of ideas.

Setting

A representation of nnn as a sum of at most kkk primes is a finite multiset of primes summing to nnn with at most kkk elements counted with multiplicity. The Schnirelmann density of A⊆Z≥0A \subseteq \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}A⊆Z≥0​ is σ(A)=inf⁡N≥1∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N\sigma(A) = \inf_{N \ge 1} |A \cap \{1, \dots, N\}|/Nσ(A)=infN≥1​∣A∩{1,…,N}∣/N (Mathlib: schnirelmannDensity).

Formalization target

Goal

∀n∈N,n odd, n>1  ⟹  ∃ s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤97 041, ∑s=n.\forall n \in \mathbb{N},\quad n \text{ odd},\ n > 1 \implies \exists\, s \text{ multiset of primes},\ |s| \le 97\,041,\ \textstyle\sum s = n.∀n∈N,n odd, n>1⟹∃s multiset of primes, ∣s∣≤97041, ∑s=n.

This is the campaign template with the value 97 04197\,04197041 filled in. The source proves the stronger statement that every odd n≥194 083n \ge 194\,083n≥194083 is a sum of exactly 97 04197\,04197041 primes; the at-most form for all odd n>1n > 1n>1 follows.

How the bound arises

It is the argument behind the 100 001100\,001100001 entry, unchanged up to the last step: the explicit Selberg sieve and Cauchy–Schwarz give σ(A)≥1/35 000\sigma(A) \ge 1/35\,000σ(A)≥1/35000 for A=B+BA = B + BA=B+B, B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}B = \{(p-3)/2 : p \text{ odd prime}\}B={(p−3)/2:p odd prime}. The only change is to take the smallest admissible mmm in Schnirelmann's inequality: (1−1/35 000)m<1/2(1 - 1/35\,000)^{m} < 1/2(1−1/35000)m<1/2 first holds at m=24 260m = 24\,260m=24260 (rather than the rounded 25 00025\,00025000), so 2mA=Z≥02mA = \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}2mA=Z≥0​ and K=4m+1=97 041K = 4m + 1 = 97\,041K=4m+1=97041.

Significance

The bound is far weaker than Tao's 555 or Helfgott's 333, but it rests on an elementary argument with no "sufficiently large" threshold and no prime number theorem, so it is a realistic target for a complete formalization and a large step down from 100 001100\,001100001. Reusable components:

  1. Explicit Chebyshev-type lower bound for π(y)\pi(y)π(y).
  2. Explicit Selberg upper-bound sieve for r(s)r(s)r(s).
  3. Moment bounds for the singular-series factor C(s)C(s)C(s).
  4. Schnirelmann's inequality σ(D+E)≥σ(D)+σ(E)−σ(D)σ(E)\sigma(D+E) \ge \sigma(D)+\sigma(E)-\sigma(D)\sigma(E)σ(D+E)≥σ(D)+σ(E)−σ(D)σ(E).

Formalization scope

The Lean statement is the campaign template verbatim with 97 04197\,04197041 in place of the value. Mathlib already has schnirelmannDensity, the Λ² Selberg sieve setup (Mathlib/NumberTheory/SelbergSieve.lean) and central-binomial bounds.

Selected references

  • P. Pollack, Not Always Buried Deep, AMS, 2009, Chapter 6, §6. https://www.pollack-math.net/NABDofficial.pdf
  • K. S. Kedlaya, Notes on Analytic Number Theory, Chapter 13, "The Selberg sieve". https://kskedlaya.org/ant/chap-selberg.html
  • O. Ramaré, On Šnirel'man's constant, Ann. Sc. Norm. Super. Pisa (4) 22 (1995), 645–706.
  • T. Tao, Every odd number greater than 1 is the sum of at most five primes, Math. Comp. 83 (2014). https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.6656
  • H. A. Helfgott, The ternary Goldbach conjecture is true, 2013. https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.7748
  • Explicit improvement of the 100 001100\,001100001 constant (unpublished AI-assisted calculation, October 2026). Source of the constant 97 04197\,04197041; not peer reviewed.
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects III: Global Monotone Convergence of Optimal PricesResearch Paper

Motivation

Consumers judge a price against a reference price, an internal standard formed from the prices they have seen before. A price below the reference feels like a gain and raises demand; a price above it feels like a loss and lowers demand. The effect is documented empirically in marketing and behavioural economics (Kalyanaram and Winer 1995). It forces a pricing firm to plan dynamically: today's price is tomorrow's reference point.

This makes the shape of an optimal price path the practical question. Should a firm launch high and cut prices over time (skimming), launch low and raise them (penetration), keep prices constant, or alternate between high and low? For linear demand models, Kopalle, Rao and Assunção (1996) and Fibich, Gavious and Lowengart (2003) showed that optimal prices move monotonically towards a steady state. Popescu and Wu (2007) study a general, nonparametric reference-dependent demand model. They show that the reference price path always converges monotonically, but the price path need not be monotone: high-low pricing can be optimal even for loss-neutral consumers. They then give three alternative sufficient conditions under which every optimal price path is monotone. This mission formalizes that result, their Theorem 3 (Global Price Monotonicity).

Setting

A monopolist chooses a price ptp_tpt​ in each period t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… from the interval P=[0,pˉ]P = [0, \bar p]P=[0,pˉ​], pˉ>0\bar p > 0pˉ​>0. Consumers hold a reference price rtr_trt​ that evolves by exponential smoothing with memory α∈[0,1)\alpha \in [0, 1)α∈[0,1):

rt+1=αrt+(1−α)pt.r_{t+1} = \alpha r_t + (1-\alpha) p_t .rt+1​=αrt​+(1−α)pt​.

Demand is D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r)D(p, r) = d(p) + R(r - p, r)D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r). Here d(p)=D(p,p)d(p) = D(p,p)d(p)=D(p,p) is the base demand, and R(x,r)R(x, r)R(x,r) is the reference effect of a perceived gain x=r−px = r - px=r−p, with R(0,r)=0R(0, r) = 0R(0,r)=0. With zero cost, the per-period short-term profit is Π(p,r)=p D(p,r)\Pi(p, r) = p\,D(p, r)Π(p,r)=pD(p,r). The base profit is π(p)=p d(p)\pi(p) = p\,d(p)π(p)=pd(p), the reference profit is ΠR(p,r)=p R(r−p,r)\Pi^R(p, r) = p\,R(r-p, r)ΠR(p,r)=pR(r−p,r), and λ(r)=Rx(0,r)\lambda(r) = R_x(0, r)λ(r)=Rx​(0,r) is the slope of the reference effect at zero.

With discount factor β∈(0,1)\beta \in (0,1)β∈(0,1), the value function is

V(r0)=sup⁡pt∈P∑t≥0βt Π(pt,rt),V(r_0) = \sup_{p_t \in P} \sum_{t \ge 0} \beta^t\, \Pi(p_t, r_t),V(r0​)=pt​∈Psup​t≥0∑​βtΠ(pt​,rt​),

the supremum over all price sequences in PPP. It satisfies the Bellman equation V(r)=sup⁡p∈PW(p,r)V(r) = \sup_{p \in P} W(p, r)V(r)=supp∈P​W(p,r) with

W(p,r)=Π(p,r)+β V(αr+(1−α)p).(2)W(p, r) = \Pi(p, r) + \beta\, V(\alpha r + (1-\alpha) p). \tag{2}W(p,r)=Π(p,r)+βV(αr+(1−α)p).(2)

The optimal pricing policy p∗(r)p^*(r)p∗(r) is the largest maximizer of W(⋅,r)W(\cdot, r)W(⋅,r) over PPP. The reference price policy is q∗(r)=αr+(1−α)p∗(r)q^*(r) = \alpha r + (1-\alpha) p^*(r)q∗(r)=αr+(1−α)p∗(r). From r0r_0r0​, the state path is rt+1∗=q∗(rt∗)r^*_{t+1} = q^*(r^*_t)rt+1∗​=q∗(rt∗​) and the pricing path is pt∗=p∗(rt∗)p^*_t = p^*(r^*_t)pt∗​=p∗(rt∗​). A steady state is a price p∗∗∈Pp^{**} \in Pp∗∗∈P with p∗(p∗∗)=p∗∗p^*(p^{**}) = p^{**}p∗(p∗∗)=p∗∗.

The standing assumptions are the paper's Assumptions 1–3. Assumption 1: demand is nonnegative, bounded and continuous, decreasing in ppp and increasing in rrr, and RRR is increasing in xxx. Assumption 2: RRR is twice differentiable. Assumption 3: (a) π\piπ is nonmonotonic and concave; (b) π′(r)−rλ(r)\pi'(r) - r\lambda(r)π′(r)−rλ(r) is strictly decreasing; (c) ΠR\Pi^RΠR is concave in ppp and supermodular in (p,r)(p, r)(p,r).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (Global Price Monotonicity)

Suppose, in addition, that at least one of the three alternative conditions of Lemma 3 holds:

  • (a) α=0\alpha = 0α=0;
  • (b) D(p,r)D(p, r)D(p,r) is convex in rrr;
  • (c) Π\PiΠ is strongly concave on the interior of its domain, meaning it is C2\mathcal C^2C2 and Π+ap2+br2\Pi + a p^2 + b r^2Π+ap2+br2 is concave for some a,b>0a, b > 0a,b>0, and there is a constant K>0K > 0K>0 with Πrr≥−K\Pi_{rr} \ge -KΠrr​≥−K and Πpr≥K/2\Pi_{pr} \ge K/2Πpr​≥K/2.

Then there is a unique steady state p∗∗p^{**}p∗∗. It is the unique solution in PPP of

π′(p)1−β=p λ(p)1−αβ,(3)\frac{\pi'(p)}{1-\beta} = \frac{p\,\lambda(p)}{1-\alpha\beta}, \tag{3}1−βπ′(p)​=1−αβpλ(p)​,(3)

and for every initial reference price r0∈Pr_0 \in Pr0​∈P the optimal pricing path is monotone and converges to it:

(pt∗)t≥0 monotone,lim⁡t→∞pt∗=p∗∗.(p^*_t)_{t\ge 0}\ \text{monotone}, \qquad \lim_{t\to\infty} p^*_t = p^{**}.(pt∗​)t≥0​ monotone,t→∞lim​pt∗​=p∗∗.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2. q∗q^*q∗ is increasing on PPP.
  2. Theorem 2. There is a unique steady state p∗∗p^{**}p∗∗, characterized by (3). Every pricing path converges to p∗∗p^{**}p∗∗, and every state path converges to p∗∗p^{**}p∗∗ monotonically.
  3. Lemma 3(a). If α=0\alpha = 0α=0, then p∗p^*p∗ is increasing on PPP.
  4. Convexity of VVV (Appendix A.7(b)). If D(p,⋅)D(p, \cdot)D(p,⋅) is convex on PPP for every ppp, then VVV is convex on PPP.
  5. Lemma 3(b). If D(p,⋅)D(p, \cdot)D(p,⋅) is convex on PPP for every ppp, then p∗p^*p∗ is increasing on PPP.

Significance

Theorem 3 limits the optimal strategies to skimming, penetration and constant pricing. It also shows that the paths do not cross: raising the initial reference price shifts the entire optimal price sequence upward. It extends the price-monotonicity results of Kopalle et al. and Fibich et al. from linear additive-difference models to every demand that is convex in the reference price, and to all models when consumers have one-period memory. Without it, a monotone reference-price path could coexist with oscillating prices, and the paper shows by example (its Figure 4) that this happens when the conditions fail.

Formalizing the result produces a reusable Lean account of a deterministic infinite-horizon pricing problem with a continuous state: a sequence-problem value function, a largest-maximizer policy, state and price paths, and steady states. It also yields monotone-comparative-statics arguments applied to a Bellman objective. The paper's proofs are informal: they cite Topkis' monotonicity theorem, a convexity-preservation result of Smith and McCardle, and standard dynamic-programming facts (Stokey, Lucas and Prescott). None of these statements has a machine-checked proof on this platform.

Difficulty

The obvious route does not reach the price path. Monotonicity of q∗q^*q∗ gives monotone reference paths, but the price pt∗=(rt+1∗−αrt∗)/(1−α)p^*_t = (r^*_{t+1} - \alpha r^*_t)/(1-\alpha)pt∗​=(rt+1∗​−αrt∗​)/(1−α) is a difference of two monotone sequences, which need not be monotone. Monotonicity of p∗p^*p∗ itself requires WWW to be supermodular in (p,r)(p, r)(p,r). WWW involves the value function evaluated at αr+(1−α)p\alpha r + (1-\alpha)pαr+(1−α)p, and supermodularity of Π\PiΠ alone does not carry through that composition. Under (b) the missing ingredient is a curvature property of VVV that is not visible from the Bellman equation. Under (c) it is a lower bound on the second derivative of VVV, which needs VVV to be twice differentiable. The existence of a steady state also needs work. The limit of a monotone state path must be shown to be a fixed point of the largest-maximizer policy. That policy is not continuous in general, so this step requires continuity of VVV and upper hemicontinuity of the argmax, which the paper leaves implicit.

Formalization scope

Everything is over R\mathbb RR. The data are d:R→Rd : \mathbb R \to \mathbb Rd:R→R and R:R→R→RR : \mathbb R \to \mathbb R \to \mathbb RR:R→R→R, with D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r)D(p, r) = d(p) + R(r-p, r)D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r) and R(0,r)=0R(0, r) = 0R(0,r)=0. The committed conventions:

  • VVV is the supremum over price sequences with values in Set.Icc 0 pbar of the discounted tsum. It is not an arbitrary solution of the Bellman equation.
  • p∗p^*p∗ is the sSup of the argmax set, which is the paper's largest maximizer. Nonemptiness of the argmax is not assumed.
  • A steady state is r ∈ P ∧ optPrice r = r.
  • Assumption 1's monotonicities are non-strict and hold on P×PP \times PP×P. "Twice differentiable" is differentiability of RRR and of its Fréchet derivative.
  • An added hypothesis, Differentiable ℝ d, makes π′\pi'π′ in Assumption 3(b) and in (3) a genuine derivative.
  • The Lemma 3 hypothesis is the disjunction of (a), (b), (c). Condition (b) is convexity of r↦D(p,r)r \mapsto D(p, r)r↦D(p,r) on PPP for every p∈Pp \in Pp∈P. Condition (c) holds on the open square (0,pˉ)2(0,\bar p)^2(0,pˉ​)2, with one constant KKK for all points and second partials taken as iterated one-variable derivatives. Price paths start from r0∈Pr_0 \in Pr0​∈P, and "monotone" means monotone from t=0t = 0t=0.

Condition (c) is kept as printed. On P=[0,pˉ]P = [0, \bar p]P=[0,pˉ​] it can seldom hold, because Πrr=p Drr\Pi_{rr} = p\,D_{rr}Πrr​=pDrr​ vanishes as p→0p \to 0p→0 while strong concavity demands Πrr≤−2b<0\Pi_{rr} \le -2b < 0Πrr​≤−2b<0. A near-vacuous disjunct only weakens the hypothesis. The theorem's content comes from (a) and (b), and the hypotheses are jointly satisfiable: pˉ=3/4\bar p = 3/4pˉ​=3/4, d(p)=1−pd(p) = 1-pd(p)=1−p, R(x,r)=x/4R(x, r) = x/4R(x,r)=x/4 satisfies all of them. A formalization that conjoined the three conditions, or assumed the argmax nonempty or VVV to satisfy a Bellman equation, would be a different and weaker theorem, and is ruled out.

A complete development needs:

  • the value function's boundedness and continuity;
  • the Bellman equation for the sequence problem;
  • existence and upper hemicontinuity of maximizers;
  • Topkis' monotonicity theorem on an interval;
  • preservation of convexity under the supremum in (b);
  • for (c), second-order differentiability of VVV.

Topkis' theorem and the dynamic-programming facts are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of them as independent lemmas are welcome. The optional condition (c) branch is expected to be the hardest part.

Selected references

  • I. Popescu and Y. Wu, Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects, Operations Research 55(3):413–429, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0393
  • P. K. Kopalle, A. G. Rao and J. L. Assunção, Asymmetric Reference Price Effects and Dynamic Pricing Policies, Marketing Science 15(1):60–85, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.15.1.60
  • G. Fibich, A. Gavious and O. Lowengart, Explicit Solutions of Optimization Models and Differential Games with Nonsmooth (Asymmetric) Reference-Price Effects, Operations Research 51(5):721–734, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.5.721.16758
  • G. Kalyanaram and R. S. Winer, Empirical Generalizations from Reference Price Research, Marketing Science 14(3):G161–G169, 1995. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.14.3.G161
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
  • J. E. Smith and K. F. McCardle, Structural Properties of Stochastic Dynamic Programs, Operations Research 50(5):796–809, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.50.5.796.365
  • N. L. Stokey, R. E. Lucas and E. C. Prescott, Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics, Harvard University Press, 1989. https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvjnrt76
10 thms1 active userReviewed
Bandit AlgorithmsOperations ResearchStatistics·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies III: A Logarithmic Regret Lower Bound with a Known Incumbent PriceResearch Paper

Motivation

A seller who does not know how demand responds to price must learn it from sales while it sells. Each price it charges earns revenue, and each price also reveals something about demand. Choosing prices that serve both purposes is the learn-and-earn problem of dynamic pricing. Its standard yardstick is regret: the expected revenue lost, over a horizon of TTT periods, relative to a seller who knew the demand curve from the start.

Keskin and Zeevi (Operations Research 62(5), 2014) study linear demand with unknown intercept and slope. They show that no policy can have worst-case regret of order below T\sqrt TT​, and that simple least-squares-based policies attain Tlog⁡T\sqrt T \log TT​logT. They then consider a variant that is common in practice. A seller has charged one incumbent price p^\hat pp^​ for a long time and knows the expected demand D^\hat DD^ at that price. Only the slope of the demand curve remains uncertain, and the incumbent price is the only price that carries no information about it. In this variant the achievable regret drops to order log⁡T\log TlogT. This mission formalizes the lower bound: no policy does better than log⁡T\log TlogT (Theorem 3 of the paper). Earlier single-parameter models (Broder and Rusmevichientong, Operations Research 2012) assumed the intercept is known exactly, so that the only uninformative price is zero. The incumbent price model instead has a strictly positive uninformative price, and a seller that charges it stops learning.

Setting

Prices are chosen from an interval [l,u][l,u][l,u] with 0≤l<u0 \le l < u0≤l<u. The seller knows an incumbent price p^∈[l,u]\hat p \in [l,u]p^​∈[l,u] and an incumbent demand D^≠0\hat D \ne 0D^=0. The unknown slope β\betaβ lies in a compact interval B=[bmin⁡,bmax⁡]\mathfrak B = [b_{\min}, b_{\max}]B=[bmin​,bmax​] with bmin⁡<bmax⁡<0b_{\min} < b_{\max} < 0bmin​<bmax​<0. The expected demand at p^\hat pp^​ is D^\hat DD^, which is the incumbent price relation D^=α+βp^\hat D = \alpha + \beta \hat pD^=α+βp^​. Write the price in period ttt as pt=p^+xtp_t = \hat p + x_tpt​=p^​+xt​, where xtx_txt​ is the price deviation. Demand in period ttt is

Dt=D^+βxt+ϵt,t=1,2,…,D_t = \hat D + \beta x_t + \epsilon_t, \qquad t = 1, 2, \dots,Dt​=D^+βxt​+ϵt​,t=1,2,…,

where the demand shocks ϵ1,ϵ2,…\epsilon_1, \epsilon_2, \dotsϵ1​,ϵ2​,… are i.i.d. N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) with σ>0\sigma > 0σ>0.

The single-period revenue of a deviation xxx is rβ(x)=(p^+x)(D^+βx)r_\beta(x) = (\hat p + x)(\hat D + \beta x)rβ​(x)=(p^​+x)(D^+βx). It is maximized at the optimal deviation

ψ(β)=−p^2−D^2β.\psi(\beta) = -\frac{\hat p}{2} - \frac{\hat D}{2\beta}.ψ(β)=−2p^​​−2βD^​.

The model assumes that the optimal price p^+ψ(β)\hat p + \psi(\beta)p^​+ψ(β) lies strictly inside (l,u)(l,u)(l,u) for every β∈B\beta \in \mathfrak Bβ∈B.

A pricing policy π\piπ is a sequence of measurable functions. The first price π1\pi_1π1​ is a constant, and the price in period t+1t+1t+1 is a function πt+1(Ht)\pi_{t+1}(H_t)πt+1​(Ht​) of the observed history Ht=((D1,p1),…,(Dt,pt))H_t = ((D_1,p_1),\dots,(D_t,p_t))Ht​=((D1​,p1​),…,(Dt​,pt​)), with values in [l,u][l,u][l,u]. A policy never observes β\betaβ or the shocks. The regret of π\piπ under slope β\betaβ over TTT periods is

Δβπ(T)=T rβ(ψ(β))−Eβπ∑t=1Trβ(xt).\Delta^\pi_\beta(T) = T\,r_\beta(\psi(\beta)) - \mathbb E^\pi_\beta \sum_{t=1}^T r_\beta(x_t).Δβπ​(T)=Trβ​(ψ(β))−Eβπ​t=1∑T​rβ​(xt​).

The worst-case regret excludes the slopes at which the incumbent price is itself optimal:

Δπ(T)=sup⁡{Δβπ(T):bmin⁡≤β≤bmax⁡, ψ(β)≠0}.\Delta^\pi(T) = \sup\{\Delta^\pi_\beta(T) : b_{\min} \le \beta \le b_{\max},\ \psi(\beta) \ne 0\}.Δπ(T)=sup{Δβπ​(T):bmin​≤β≤bmax​, ψ(β)=0}.

The accumulated information is measured by J^t=∑s=1txs2\hat J_t = \sum_{s=1}^t x_s^2J^t​=∑s=1t​xs2​; the Fisher information of the history about β\betaβ is σ−2Eβπ[J^t]\sigma^{-2}\mathbb E^\pi_\beta[\hat J_t]σ−2Eβπ​[J^t​].

In Lean these objects are Model (with fields l u pHat DHat bMin bMax σ and the standing assumptions), Policy, pricePath, dev, regret, worstRegret, sqErr and expInfo, all in the namespace KeskinZeevi.IncumbentLowerBound; the i.i.d. N(0,σ2)\mathcal N(0,\sigma^2)N(0,σ2) shocks are the shared definition RobustBooking.Shared.GaussianNoise.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 1149)

There is a finite positive constant ccc, depending only on the model, such that for every pricing policy π\piπ and every horizon T≥3T \ge 3T≥3,

Δπ(T)  ≥  clog⁡T.\Delta^\pi(T) \;\ge\; c \log T.Δπ(T)≥clogT.

The constant is not fixed; the statement asserts only the logarithmic rate, uniformly over policies.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 4 (p. 1149). There are finite positive constants c0,c1c_0, c_1c0​,c1​ such that for every policy π\piπ and horizon TTT,
sup⁡β∈B, ψ(β)≠0∑t=2TEβπ(xt−ψ(β))2  ≥  ∑t=2Tc0c1+sup⁡β∈BEβπ[J^t−1].\sup_{\beta\in\mathfrak B,\,\psi(\beta)\ne0} \sum_{t=2}^T \mathbb E^\pi_\beta (x_t-\psi(\beta))^2 \;\ge\; \sum_{t=2}^T \frac{c_0}{c_1 + \sup_{\beta\in\mathfrak B}\mathbb E^\pi_\beta[\hat J_{t-1}]}.β∈B,ψ(β)=0sup​t=2∑T​Eβπ​(xt​−ψ(β))2≥t=2∑T​c1​+supβ∈B​Eβπ​[J^t−1​]c0​​.
  1. The same bound with the information replaced by its trivial maximum (§A.3, p. 1158): the right side with (u−l)2(t−1)(u-l)^2(t-1)(u−l)2(t−1) in place of sup⁡βEβπ[J^t−1]\sup_\beta \mathbb E^\pi_\beta[\hat J_{t-1}]supβ​Eβπ​[J^t−1​].
  2. The regret identity and its lower bound (§A.3, p. 1159): with the constants of Lemma 4,
Δπ(T)=sup⁡β∈B, ψ(β)≠0{−β∑t=1TEβπ(xt−ψ(β))2}  ≥  ∣bmax⁡∣∑t=2Tc0c1+(u−l)2(t−1).\Delta^\pi(T) = \sup_{\beta\in\mathfrak B,\,\psi(\beta)\ne0} \Big\{-\beta\sum_{t=1}^T \mathbb E^\pi_\beta (x_t - \psi(\beta))^2\Big\} \;\ge\; |b_{\max}| \sum_{t=2}^T \frac{c_0}{c_1 + (u-l)^2(t-1)}.Δπ(T)=β∈B,ψ(β)=0sup​{−βt=1∑T​Eβπ​(xt​−ψ(β))2}≥∣bmax​∣t=2∑T​c1​+(u−l)2(t−1)c0​​.
  1. The harmonic bound (§A.3, p. 1159): there are K1,K2>0K_1, K_2 > 0K1​,K2​>0 with Δπ(T)≥K1∑t=1T−11/(K2+t)≥K11+K2∑t=1T−11/t\Delta^\pi(T) \ge K_1\sum_{t=1}^{T-1} 1/(K_2+t) \ge \frac{K_1}{1+K_2}\sum_{t=1}^{T-1} 1/tΔπ(T)≥K1​∑t=1T−1​1/(K2​+t)≥1+K2​K1​​∑t=1T−1​1/t.

Significance

Theorem 3 identifies log⁡T\log TlogT as the minimal asymptotic loss rate of the incumbent price problem. Together with the matching upper bound (Theorem 4 of the paper, a separate mission in this series), it separates two regimes. When both demand parameters are unknown the rate is T\sqrt TT​. When the demand at one strictly positive price is known it is log⁡T\log TlogT, even though an uninformative price exists and a myopic seller can stop learning. The lower bound is what makes "asymptotically optimal" meaningful for the semi-myopic policies the paper proposes. The paper places it next to the logarithmic lower bound of Broder and Rusmevichientong (2012, Theorem 4.5), whose binary-response model has no uninformative action; the incumbent price model adds one.

The result is proved on paper and, as far as the platform's corpus shows, not formalized anywhere. A formal development would produce a reusable model of history-dependent policies driven by i.i.d. noise, a scalar Van Trees (Bayesian Cramér–Rao) inequality for adaptively collected Gaussian data, and a template for minimax regret lower bounds that quantify over all policies. The companion missions of this series (the T\sqrt TT​ lower bound, and the two upper bounds) share the model.

Difficulty

The bound quantifies over every non-anticipating policy, including policies that adapt their exploration to the observed history. A frequentist Cramér–Rao bound does not apply, because a policy's prices are neither unbiased estimators nor fixed designs, and the information Eβπ[J^t]\mathbb E^\pi_\beta[\hat J_t]Eβπ​[J^t​] depends on the unknown β\betaβ through the policy's own choices. A two-point argument that compares two slopes controls the error at one pair of parameters. It does not by itself give the per-period trade-off between information and pricing error that must be summed over ttt. The set over which the worst case is taken also excludes the slope at which the incumbent price is optimal. The lower bound must therefore come from slopes where the seller is forced to deviate from p^\hat pp^​, and every deviation earns information but also costs revenue.

Formalization scope

The model is a Lean structure carrying all standing assumptions as fields: 0≤l<u0 \le l < u0≤l<u, p^∈[l,u]\hat p\in[l,u]p^​∈[l,u], D^≠0\hat D\ne 0D^=0, bmin⁡<bmax⁡<0b_{\min}<b_{\max}<0bmin​<bmax​<0, σ>0\sigma>0σ>0, and interiority of the optimal price p^/2−D^/(2β)\hat p/2-\hat D/(2\beta)p^​/2−D^/(2β) for every β∈B\beta\in\mathfrak Bβ∈B. Two of these are corrections that make implicit hypotheses explicit. The first is p^∈[l,u]\hat p\in[l,u]p^​∈[l,u]: p. 1148 calls p^\hat pp^​ the uninformative price "within the feasible price domain", and the proof uses J^s≤(u−l)2s\hat J_s\le(u-l)^2sJ^s​≤(u−l)2s. The second is D^≠0\hat D\ne0D^=0. With D^=0\hat D = 0D^=0 the optimal price p^/2\hat p/2p^​/2 is known and the theorem is false. The paper's reading is D^>0\hat D>0D^>0, and D^≠0\hat D\neq 0D^=0 is the weaker hypothesis the proof needs.

The optimal deviation ψ\psiψ is the closed form, which equals the maximizer (21) under the interiority assumption. Policies are deterministic. The rule of period t+1t+1t+1 is a Borel measurable map from histories encoded as Fin t → ℝ × ℝ into [l,u][l,u][l,u]. The price process is defined by recursion from the shocks on an arbitrary probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega,P)(Ω,P), which realizes the law of the history under π\piπ and β\betaβ. Lean periods start at 000 (Lean period ttt is the paper's period t+1t+1t+1). Expectations are Bochner integrals of bounded measurable functions. The worst-case regret is a real supremum over the subtype {β∈B:ψ(β)≠0}\{\beta\in\mathfrak B:\psi(\beta)\ne0\}{β∈B:ψ(β)=0}, which is nonempty and on which the regrets are uniformly bounded. The constant ccc is quantified before the probability space, the noise, the policy and the horizon. A statement whose constant may depend on π\piπ or TTT, whose supremum is over an empty or unbounded index set, or whose policies can read β\betaβ would be trivially true or false, and none of these is the theorem stated here.

A complete development needs the scalar Van Trees inequality, Fisher information of the Gaussian location-scale history density, measurability of the price process, and harmonic-sum estimates (Real.log against partial sums of 1/t1/t1/t), on top of Mathlib's gaussianReal, iIndepFun and Bochner integration. The Van Trees inequality and the policy/price-process model are reusable beyond this mission. Proofs of the milestones individually, and a general Van Trees inequality in Mathlib style, are welcome.

Selected references

  • N. Bora Keskin and Assaf Zeevi, Dynamic Pricing with an Unknown Demand Model: Asymptotically Optimal Semi-Myopic Policies, Operations Research 62(5):1142–1167, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1294
  • Josef Broder and Paat Rusmevichientong, Dynamic Pricing Under a General Parametric Choice Model, Operations Research 60(4):965–980, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1120.1057
  • Alexander Goldenshluger and Assaf Zeevi, Woodroofe's One-Armed Bandit Problem Revisited, Annals of Applied Probability 19(4):1603–1633, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1214/08-AAP589
  • Richard D. Gill and Boris Y. Levit, Applications of the van Trees Inequality: A Bayesian Cramér–Rao Bound, Bernoulli 1(1–2):59–79, 1995. https://doi.org/10.2307/3318681
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Randomized Linear Programming Method for Computing Network Bid Prices II: Directional Derivatives of Expected Perfect-Information Revenue Are Expected LP ValuesResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines, hotels and railways sell a fixed stock of capacity on several resources at once: a passenger flying from Boston to Los Angeles through Chicago uses a seat on two flight legs. Network revenue management decides which requests to accept, and the standard control is a bid price per leg: accept an itinerary if its fare exceeds the sum of the bid prices of the legs it uses. A good bid price is the marginal expected value of one more unit of capacity.

Talluri and van Ryzin (Transportation Science 33(2), 1999) proposed the randomized linear programming (RLP) method: simulate demand scenarios, solve a linear program with perfect knowledge of each scenario's demand, and average the optimal dual prices. Their main result (a companion mission) says the average is an unbiased estimate of the gradient of expected perfect-information revenue when that gradient exists. This mission is about their §3, the case where it does not: when the LP is degenerate with positive probability, the expected revenue has kinks, averaged dual prices estimate only a supergradient, and the right object is the directional derivative. Proposition 2 of the paper computes it as the expectation of an auxiliary LP value, which again gives an unbiased simulation estimator, now one direction at a time.

Setting

There are mmm legs and nnn itineraries. The incidence matrix A∈{0,1}m×nA \in \{0,1\}^{m \times n}A∈{0,1}m×n has aij=1a_{ij} = 1aij​=1 if itinerary jjj uses leg iii; every column AjA^jAj is nonzero. Fares are r∈Rnr \in \mathbb{R}^nr∈Rn, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0; capacities are x∈Rmx \in \mathbb{R}^mx∈Rm. For a demand vector Y∈RnY \in \mathbb{R}^nY∈Rn, Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0, the perfect-information LP value is

v(x,Y)=max⁡{r⊤y:Ay≤x, 0≤y≤Y},v(x, Y) = \max\{r^\top y : Ay \le x,\ 0 \le y \le Y\},v(x,Y)=max{r⊤y:Ay≤x, 0≤y≤Y},

the best revenue obtainable if the demand YYY were known in advance. With YYY a random vector on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P), the perfect-information approximation of the value function is JPI(x)=E v(x,Y)J^{PI}(x) = \mathbb{E}\, v(x, Y)JPI(x)=Ev(x,Y).

The Lagrangian of the capacity constraints is

L(x,μ)=∑j=1nYj(rj−μ⊤Aj)++μ⊤x,μ≥0,L(x, \mu) = \sum_{j=1}^n Y^j (r^j - \mu^\top A^j)^+ + \mu^\top x, \qquad \mu \ge 0,L(x,μ)=j=1∑n​Yj(rj−μ⊤Aj)++μ⊤x,μ≥0,

and an optimal vector of dual prices is a minimizer of L(x,⋅)L(x, \cdot)L(x,⋅) over μ≥0\mu \ge 0μ≥0. Since z↦v(z,Y)z \mapsto v(z, Y)z↦v(z,Y) is concave on z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, its superdifferential at xxx is

∂v(x,Y)={μ:v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ⊤(z−x) for all z≥0}\partial v(x, Y) = \{\mu : v(z, Y) \le v(x, Y) + \mu^\top (z - x) \text{ for all } z \ge 0\}∂v(x,Y)={μ:v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ⊤(z−x) for all z≥0}

(the paper calls its elements subgradients). For a direction d∈Rmd \in \mathbb{R}^md∈Rm let

u(x,Y;d)=min⁡{d⊤μ:μ an optimal vector of dual prices},u(x, Y; d) = \min\{d^\top \mu : \mu \text{ an optimal vector of dual prices}\},u(x,Y;d)=min{d⊤μ:μ an optimal vector of dual prices},

and let D(x;d)=lim⁡h↓01h[JPI(x+hd)−JPI(x)]D(x; d) = \lim_{h \downarrow 0} \frac1h [J^{PI}(x + hd) - J^{PI}(x)]D(x;d)=limh↓0​h1​[JPI(x+hd)−JPI(x)] be the one-sided directional derivative of JPIJ^{PI}JPI. In Lean these are piValue, JPI, lagr, IsDualOpt, superdiff and u in the namespace RLPBidPrice.Directional.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (corrected)

For xxx with every xi>0x^i > 0xi>0, YYY measurable with Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0 almost surely, and every direction ddd,

D(x;d)=lim⁡h↓01h[JPI(x+hd)−JPI(x)]=E u(x,Y;d).D(x; d) = \lim_{h \downarrow 0} \frac1h\big[J^{PI}(x + hd) - J^{PI}(x)\big] = \mathbb{E}\, u(x, Y; d).D(x;d)=h↓0lim​h1​[JPI(x+hd)−JPI(x)]=Eu(x,Y;d).

No condition on the distribution of YYY is imposed, which is the point: this is the nondifferentiable case.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 2. ∣v(x+hei,Y)−v(x,Y)∣≤hmax⁡jrj|v(x + h e^i, Y) - v(x, Y)| \le h \max_j r^j∣v(x+hei,Y)−v(x,Y)∣≤hmaxj​rj for x,Y≥0x, Y \ge 0x,Y≥0, h≥0h \ge 0h≥0.
  2. §3.1, pointwise. An optimal dual price vector μ\muμ satisfies v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ⊤(z−x)v(z, Y) \le v(x, Y) + \mu^\top(z - x)v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ⊤(z−x) for all z≥0z \ge 0z≥0.
  3. §3.1, in expectation. For a measurable selection μ(ω)\mu(\omega)μ(ω) of optimal dual prices and x>0x > 0x>0, JPI(z)≤JPI(x)+(Eμ)⊤(z−x)J^{PI}(z) \le J^{PI}(x) + (\mathbb{E}\mu)^\top(z - x)JPI(z)≤JPI(x)+(Eμ)⊤(z−x).
  4. Superdifferential. For x>0x > 0x>0, ∂v(x,Y)\partial v(x, Y)∂v(x,Y) equals the set of optimal dual prices and lies in [0,max⁡jrj]m[0, \max_j r^j]^m[0,maxj​rj]m.
  5. Pointwise directional derivative. For x>0x > 0x>0, lim⁡h↓01h[v(x+hd,Y)−v(x,Y)]=inf⁡{d⊤μ:μ∈∂v(x,Y)}\lim_{h \downarrow 0} \frac1h[v(x + hd, Y) - v(x, Y)] = \inf\{d^\top\mu : \mu \in \partial v(x, Y)\}limh↓0​h1​[v(x+hd,Y)−v(x,Y)]=inf{d⊤μ:μ∈∂v(x,Y)}.
  6. Proposition 1. For a fixed measurable dual selection fff and pairwise independent samples YiY_iYi​ distributed as YYY, 1N∑i≤Nf(Yi)\frac1N\sum_{i \le N} f(Y_i)N1​∑i≤N​f(Yi​) converges almost surely to a supergradient of JPIJ^{PI}JPI at xxx.

Significance

The result. In the differentiable case the RLP bid prices are the averaged dual prices. When degeneracy has positive probability, which happens for discrete demand and for many network structures, Proposition 2 is what remains true: the marginal value of capacity in any direction, in particular in the direction AjA^jAj of an itinerary (the displacement cost of accepting it), is the expectation of a scenario-wise LP quantity. Averaging u(x,Yi;d)u(x, Y_i; d)u(x,Yi​;d) over simulated scenarios is an unbiased estimator of it. Milestone 3 and Proposition 1 say what the plain RLP average estimates in this case (a supergradient), and why the choice of LP algorithm matters for whether it converges at all.

Formalizing it. The paper's argument is a short paragraph; its printed version is not correct as stated (see the scope section), so a machine-checked proof also settles which version holds. The mission produces a formal theory of the parametric LP value v(x,Y)v(x, Y)v(x,Y) in its right-hand side: concavity, the Lipschitz bound, the identification of its superdifferential with the Lagrangian dual optimal set, and its directional derivatives, together with the interchange of a one-sided limit and an expectation. As far as a search of the platform shows, none of this, and no revenue-management gradient result, is formalized yet; the platform's LP sensitivity theorem is for standard-form LPs with a full-row-rank matrix and does not cover this model.

Difficulty

The pointwise facts are classical convex analysis and LP duality, but they have to be proved for a supremum defined over a polytope, not quoted, and Mathlib has no LP duality theorem in this form. The identification of the superdifferential needs strong duality for the LP with the box 0≤y≤Y0 \le y \le Y0≤y≤Y, and the box is exactly where the paper's own formula (22) goes wrong: the dual variables of y≤Yy \le Yy≤Y cannot be dropped.

The step from the pointwise derivative to the expectation is a dominated convergence argument for one-sided difference quotients, which needs a bound uniform in YYY and measurability of ω↦u(x,Y(ω);d)\omega \mapsto u(x, Y(\omega); d)ω↦u(x,Y(ω);d). The obvious route, differentiating under the integral sign as in the differentiable case, is not available: JPIJ^{PI}JPI is not differentiable, and a two-sided limit is false. The measurability of uuu is not given by a formula; it has to come from uuu being a limit of measurable difference quotients.

Formalization scope

Capacities, demands and fares are real vectors indexed by Fin m and Fin n; AAA is a real matrix with 0/1 entries and nonzero columns (IsIncidence A); r≥0r \ge 0r≥0. The paper's remaining-time index kkk is notation only and is dropped. vvv is a real sSup over the feasible objective values: for x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0 it is the LP maximum, and otherwise it is 000, so every statement assumes x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 or x>0x > 0x>0 and Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0 (almost surely), and the superdifferential is taken over z≥0z \ge 0z≥0 only. Optimal dual prices are defined through the Lagrangian (13)–(14); they are the μ\muμ-parts of the optimal solutions of the LP dual. uuu is a real sInf, which would be 000 on an empty set; for x>0x > 0x>0 the dual optimal set is nonempty and bounded, so uuu is an attained minimum and the goal is not vacuous. Directional derivatives are one-sided limits (nhdsWithin 0 (Set.Ioi 0)). Expectations are Bochner integrals; no integrability of YYY is assumed or needed, since vvv and uuu are bounded.

The following corrections to the printed text are part of the statements, each with a counterexample to the printed version:

  • Eq. (22) omits the duals of y≤Yy \le Yy≤Y: with one leg, one itinerary, r=1r = 1r=1, x=1x = 1x=1, YYY uniform on [0,2][0, 2][0,2], D(1;1)=1/2D(1; 1) = 1/2D(1;1)=1/2, but the printed (22) gives E u=3/4\mathbb{E}\,u = 3/4Eu=3/4. Here uuu minimizes over the optimal dual prices of (14).
  • The superdifferential formula in the proof of Proposition 2 has the same omission: for r=1r = 1r=1, x=1x = 1x=1, Y=1/2Y = 1/2Y=1/2 the printed set is {1/2}\{1/2\}{1/2}, the true one {0}\{0\}{0}.
  • The §3.1 inequality is printed with ≥\ge≥; vvv is concave, and r=1r = 1r=1, Y=5Y = 5Y=5, x=1x = 1x=1, μ=1\mu = 1μ=1, z=10z = 10z=10 gives 5≥105 \ge 105≥10. The expectation version also misprints z−yz - yz−y for z−xz - xz−x.
  • x>0x > 0x>0 is implicit: at a zero capacity the dual prices of that leg are unbounded and a direction leaving x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 makes the LP infeasible.
  • Proposition 1 is formalized for an algorithm returning a fixed measurable function of the current demand ("initialized with the same data on each run"), with "always exists" read as almost sure convergence.

A statement of the goal with the printed (22), or with uuu defined over an arbitrary or empty set so that sInf returns 000, or with a two-sided limit, is ruled out: the first two are false or vacuous for the reasons above, the third is false.

A complete development needs LP duality for max⁡{r⊤y:Ay≤x,0≤y≤Y}\max\{r^\top y : Ay \le x, 0 \le y \le Y\}max{r⊤y:Ay≤x,0≤y≤Y}, concavity and the Lipschitz bound of the value function, the directional derivative of a finite concave function on an open set, and dominated convergence (Mathlib's MeasureTheory.tendsto_integral_filter_of_dominated_convergence); Proposition 1 uses ProbabilityTheory.strong_law_ae. The LP duality and parametric value-function results are reusable for any mission about LP-based bid prices or two-stage stochastic programs. Contributions of any milestone separately are welcome.

Selected references

  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, A Randomized Linear Programming Method for Computing Network Bid Prices, Transportation Science 33(2):207–216, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.33.2.207
  • M. S. Bazaraa, H. D. Sherali, C. M. Shetty, Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, 2nd ed., Wiley, 1993 (the paper cites p. 218 of this edition; 3rd ed. 2006: https://doi.org/10.1002/0471787779).
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, An Analysis of Bid-Price Controls for Network Revenue Management, Management Science 44(11):1577–1593, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.44.11.1577
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization+1·Captain: mikedeng1

A Randomized Linear Programming Method for Computing Network Bid Prices I: Averaged LP Dual Prices Are an Unbiased Estimate of the Gradient of Expected Perfect-Information RevenueResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines, hotels and railways sell fixed capacity on networks of resources. In network revenue management a request for an itinerary that uses several flight legs is accepted or rejected in real time, and the dominant industrial control is the bid-price control: every leg carries a price, and a request is accepted only if its fare is at least the sum of the bid prices of the legs it uses. A good bid price is the marginal expected value of one more seat on the leg, which is a gradient of an expected-revenue function with respect to capacity.

The classical way to compute bid prices, the deterministic linear program, replaces random demand by its mean and reads off the dual prices of the capacity constraints. It ignores all distributional information and gives a zero bid price to every leg whose mean demand is below capacity. Talluri and van Ryzin (Transp. Sci. 33(2), 1999) studied the randomized linear programming (RLP) method instead: simulate demand vectors Y1,…,YNY_1, \dots, Y_NY1​,…,YN​, solve one linear program per sample with the realized demand as an upper bound, and average the dual prices. Their Theorem 1 asserts that this average is an unbiased estimator of the gradient of the expected perfect-information revenue. For one leg and one fare class it recovers Littlewood's rule, ddxE v(x,Y)=r P(Y>x)\frac{d}{dx}\mathbb{E}\,v(x,Y) = r\,P(Y > x)dxd​Ev(x,Y)=rP(Y>x) (Littlewood 1972, cited on p. 209 of the paper).

Setting

A network has mmm legs and nnn itineraries. The incidence matrix A∈{0,1}m×nA \in \{0,1\}^{m\times n}A∈{0,1}m×n has aij=1a_{ij} = 1aij​=1 exactly when itinerary jjj uses leg iii, and every column AjA^jAj is nonzero. Fares are r=(r1,…,rn)≥0r = (r^1, \dots, r^n) \ge 0r=(r1,…,rn)≥0 and capacities are a real vector x≥0x \ge 0x≥0. Demand to come is a random vector Y=(Y1,…,Yn)≥0Y = (Y^1, \dots, Y^n) \ge 0Y=(Y1,…,Yn)≥0 on a probability space (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P).

The perfect-information LP value is

v(x,Y)=max⁡{ r⊤y  :  Ay≤x, 0≤y≤Y },v(x, Y) = \max\{\, r^\top y \;:\; Ay \le x,\ 0 \le y \le Y \,\},v(x,Y)=max{r⊤y:Ay≤x, 0≤y≤Y},

the revenue obtainable if the demand were known in advance, and the perfect-information approximation of the value function is JPI(x)=E v(x,Y)J^{PI}(x) = \mathbb{E}\,v(x, Y)JPI(x)=Ev(x,Y). The Lagrangian dual function of the capacity constraints is

L(x,μ)=∑j=1nYj (rj−μ⊤Aj)++μ⊤x,L(x, \mu) = \sum_{j=1}^n Y^j\,(r^j - \mu^\top A^j)^+ + \mu^\top x ,L(x,μ)=j=1∑n​Yj(rj−μ⊤Aj)++μ⊤x,

and an optimal dual price vector μ(x,Y)\mu(x, Y)μ(x,Y) is a minimizer of L(x,⋅)L(x, \cdot)L(x,⋅) over μ≥0\mu \ge 0μ≥0. In Lean these are piValue, JPI, lagr and IsDualOpt in the namespace RLPBidPrice.Unbiased.

Two conditions govern the result. Condition C1′: whenever xxx lies in the linear span of a set of columns of [A I][A\ I][A I] (columns of AAA and unit vectors eie^iei), that set spans Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm. Condition 2: every distribution function t↦P(Yj≤t)t \mapsto P(Y^j \le t)t↦P(Yj≤t) is continuous. The components Y1,…,YnY^1, \dots, Y^nY1,…,Yn are also assumed mutually independent.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (corrected)

Under C1′, Condition 2 and independence,

∇xE v(x,Y)=E ∇xv(x,Y)=E μ(x,Y).\nabla_x \mathbb{E}\,v(x, Y) = \mathbb{E}\,\nabla_x v(x, Y) = \mathbb{E}\,\mu(x, Y).∇x​Ev(x,Y)=E∇x​v(x,Y)=Eμ(x,Y).

In Lean (theorem1_unbiased_gradient) this is three clauses: v(⋅,Y)v(\cdot, Y)v(⋅,Y) is differentiable at xxx almost surely; JPIJ^{PI}JPI is Fréchet differentiable at xxx with derivative the expectation of the pathwise derivatives; and for every measurable, almost surely optimal dual selection μ\muμ, JPIJ^{PI}JPI has gradient E μ(x,Y)\mathbb{E}\,\mu(x, Y)Eμ(x,Y) at xxx.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (Glasserman): a random function that is Lipschitz in θ\thetaθ with a constant KKK and almost surely differentiable at θ\thetaθ can be differentiated under the expectation.
  2. Lemma 2: ∣v(x+hei,Y)−v(x,Y)∣≤h rˉ|v(x + h e^i, Y) - v(x, Y)| \le h\,\bar r∣v(x+hei,Y)−v(x,Y)∣≤hrˉ with rˉ=max⁡jrj\bar r = \max_j r^jrˉ=maxj​rj.
  3. Differentiability and uniqueness (§2.1, p. 210): for x>0x > 0x>0, v(⋅,Y)v(\cdot, Y)v(⋅,Y) is differentiable at xxx if and only if the optimal dual price vector is unique.
  4. Strong duality (§2.1, p. 211): an optimal μ∗\mu_*μ∗​ exists, v(x,Y)=L(x,μ∗)v(x, Y) = L(x, \mu_*)v(x,Y)=L(x,μ∗​), v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ∗⊤(z−x)v(z, Y) \le v(x, Y) + \mu_*^\top(z - x)v(z,Y)≤v(x,Y)+μ∗⊤​(z−x) for all z≥0z \ge 0z≥0, and a unique μ∗\mu_*μ∗​ is the gradient at x>0x > 0x>0.
  5. Lemma 3 (corrected): under C1′, a feasible direction ddd from μ∗\mu_*μ∗​ with d⊤Aj=0d^\top A^j = 0d⊤Aj=0 on the index sets E0∪E1E_0 \cup E_1E0​∪E1​ of Eqs. (16)–(17) and d⊤x=0d^\top x = 0d⊤x=0 is zero.
  6. Lemma 4 (corrected): under C1′, Condition 2 and independence, ∇xv(x,Y)\nabla_x v(x, Y)∇x​v(x,Y) exists with probability one.

Significance

The theorem justifies a widely used method: it says that the simple procedure of averaging simulated LP dual prices targets the gradient of a well-defined expected-revenue function, and by the strong law of large numbers the average is also consistent. It separates the RLP method from the deterministic LP, whose dual prices are gradients of a different function, and it isolates exactly when that justification fails (degenerate LPs with positive probability, discussed in §2.2 of the paper and treated by directional derivatives in its §3).

The printed statement is false, and the formalization records that. Condition 1 of the paper looks only at the columns of AAA and ignores the slack columns of Ay≤xAy \le xAy≤x; the paper's Condition 2 is marginal and does not rule out dependent demands whose sum hits capacity. The corrected statement, with C1′ and independence, is the one this mission targets. No machine-checked version of this result, or of LP sensitivity analysis under random right-hand sides of this kind, is known to exist; formalizing it gives a checked statement of the hypotheses under which the RLP estimator is unbiased.

Difficulty

The pathwise facts are LP duality; the delicate step is the almost-sure uniqueness of the dual prices. Degeneracy of an LP is a condition on finitely many bases, but the set of dual optima depends on YYY, and the natural argument that fixes a direction ddd and shows that d⊤(x−∑jYjAj)=0d^\top(x - \sum_{j} Y^j A^j) = 0d⊤(x−∑j​YjAj)=0 has probability zero does not work as written: the direction depends on YYY, and a direction that improves the Lagrangian may leave the orthant μ≥0\mu \ge 0μ≥0. This is precisely where the printed Condition 1 fails. A second difficulty is the passage from almost-sure differentiability of v(⋅,Y)v(\cdot, Y)v(⋅,Y) to a full Fréchet derivative of JPIJ^{PI}JPI on Rm\mathbb{R}^mRm, with the measurability of the random derivative and of the dual selection.

Formalization scope

Legs and itineraries are Fin m and Fin n; AAA is a real matrix with entries in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} and nonzero columns; capacities are real vectors. The paper's remaining-time index kkk is notation only and is dropped. vvv is a real sSup over feasible objective values; since the feasible set is empty when xxx or YYY has a negative entry (the value is then 000), every statement assumes x≥0x \ge 0x≥0 and Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0 almost surely, and derivatives are taken where xxx is interior (C1′ forces xi≠0x^i \neq 0xi=0). Optimal dual prices are minimizers of the Lagrangian (13) over μ≥0\mu \ge 0μ≥0, which are the μ\muμ-parts of the optimal solutions of the LP dual of (6)–(8). Gradients are Fréchet derivatives on Fin m → ℝ, encoded by the linear functional h↦∑igihih \mapsto \sum_i g^i h^ih↦∑i​gihi (gradCLM g). Condition 2 is continuity of t↦P(Yj≤t)t \mapsto P(Y^j \le t)t↦P(Yj≤t); independence is iIndepFun. YYY is measurable; no integrability of YYY is assumed, since 0≤v(x,Y)≤rˉ∑ixi0 \le v(x, Y) \le \bar r\sum_i x^i0≤v(x,Y)≤rˉ∑i​xi.

Every correction is labelled in the statements. C1 → C1′: with AAA having rows (0,1,1),(1,1,0),(1,0,1)(0,1,1),(1,1,0),(1,0,1)(0,1,1),(1,1,0),(1,0,1), r=(100,1,1)r = (100,1,1)r=(100,1,1), x=(1,1,1)x = (1,1,1)x=(1,1,1) and YjY^jYj i.i.d. uniform on [0,2][0,2][0,2], Conditions 1 and 2 hold but E v(⋅,Y)\mathbb{E}\,v(\cdot, Y)Ev(⋅,Y) has one-sided slopes of about 0.740.740.74 and 50.550.550.5 in the second coordinate at xxx. Independence added: with one leg, x=1x = 1x=1, fares (2,1)(2,1)(2,1) and Y2=1−Y1Y^2 = 1 - Y^1Y2=1−Y1, Y1Y^1Y1 uniform on [0,1][0,1][0,1], the LP is degenerate almost surely. Implicit hypotheses made explicit: x≥0x \ge 0x≥0, Y≥0Y \ge 0Y≥0, r≥0r \ge 0r≥0 (Lemma 2's bound needs rˉ≥0\bar r \ge 0rˉ≥0), nonzero 0/1 columns.

The goal is not trivialized by a selection: it states the selection-free identity ∇xE v=E ∇xv\nabla_x \mathbb{E}\,v = \mathbb{E}\,\nabla_x v∇x​Ev=E∇x​v, and the dual-price form quantifies only over measurable selections that are optimal almost surely; it assumes neither almost-sure differentiability, nor almost-sure uniqueness of the dual, nor a joint density, nor nondegeneracy.

A complete development needs LP duality for bounded-variable LPs in Lagrangian form, concave polyhedral functions and their superdifferentials, a finite enumeration of bases of [A I][A\ I][A I], and differentiation under the integral sign for Lipschitz integrands (Mathlib has hasFDerivAt_integral_of_dominated_loc_of_lip). The LP duality and sensitivity results are reusable for other revenue-management and stochastic-programming missions. Contributions of any milestone, of the counterexamples as formal statements, and of alternative proofs are welcome.

Selected references

  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, A Randomized Linear Programming Method for Computing Network Bid Prices, Transportation Science 33(2):207–216, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.33.2.207
  • P. Glasserman, Perturbation Analysis of Production Networks, in D. Yao (ed.), Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Manufacturing Systems, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1994 (source of Lemma 1; as cited in the paper).
  • K. Littlewood, Forecasting and Control of Passengers, 12th AGIFORS Symposium Proceedings, 1972 (as cited in the paper).
  • M. S. Bazaraa, H. D. Sherali, C. M. Shetty, Nonlinear Programming: Theory and Algorithms, John Wiley, New York, 1993, Chapter 6 (Lagrangian duality; as cited in the paper).
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Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Airline Yield Management with Overbooking, Cancellations, and No-Shows I: Time- and State-Dependent Booking Limits Are OptimalResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines sell the seats of one flight leg in several fare classes over a booking horizon of weeks. Each time a request arrives, the booking agent must decide whether to sell a seat now at the requested fare or keep it for a later, possibly higher-paying, customer. Real reservations are also cancelled, and some ticket holders fail to show up at departure, so airlines deliberately overbook and pay a penalty when more passengers show up than the airplane can carry. The question this mission formalizes is what an optimal accept/reject rule looks like when all three effects (multiple fares, cancellations, no-shows) are present.

For the model without cancellations and no-shows, Lee and Hersh (Transp. Sci. 27(3), 1993) showed that the optimal rule is given by booking limits: in each period and for each fare class there is a threshold on the number of seats sold, and a request is accepted exactly when the current bookings are below it. Subramanian, Stidham and Lautenbacher (Transp. Sci. 33(2), 1999) extend the model to state-dependent cancellations and binomial no-shows with a convex overbooking penalty. Their §1 shows that booking limits, now depending on both the stage and the fare class, are still optimal. The structural step behind this is the concavity of the value function, in the style of Lippman and Stidham's analysis of admission control to a queue (Oper. Res. 25(2), 1977).

Setting

There are mmm fare classes and NNN stages n=N,N−1,…,0n = N, N-1, \dots, 0n=N,N−1,…,0, counting the periods remaining: stage NNN opens reservations, stage 000 is departure. The state x∈{0,1,2,… }x \in \{0,1,2,\dots\}x∈{0,1,2,…} is the number of seats reserved. At each stage n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 exactly one event happens:

  • a request in fare class iii, with probability pin≥0p_{in} \ge 0pin​≥0;
  • a cancellation, with probability qn(x)q_n(x)qn​(x), which is non-negative, nondecreasing and concave in xxx, with qn(0)=0q_n(0) = 0qn​(0)=0;
  • nothing, with probability p0n(x)=1−∑ipin−qn(x)p_{0n}(x) = 1 - \sum_i p_{in} - q_n(x)p0n​(x)=1−∑i​pin​−qn​(x) (Eq. (1)).

Accepting a class-iii request at stage nnn earns rin≥0r_{in} \ge 0rin​≥0. At departure each reservation holder independently shows up with probability 1−β1 - \beta1−β (0≤β≤10 \le \beta \le 10≤β≤1), so the number who show up is Y(x)∼Bin(x,1−β)Y(x) \sim \mathrm{Bin}(x, 1-\beta)Y(x)∼Bin(x,1−β). If Y(x)=yY(x) = yY(x)=y, an overbooking penalty π(y)\pi(y)π(y) is paid. Here π\piπ is non-negative, convex and nondecreasing on y≥0y \ge 0y≥0, and π(y)=0\pi(y) = 0π(y)=0 for y≤Cy \le Cy≤C, the capacity. Starting empty and accepting at most one request per stage, the states reachable at stage nnn are 0≤x≤N−n0 \le x \le N - n0≤x≤N−n, and p0n(x)≥0p_{0n}(x) \ge 0p0n​(x)≥0 is assumed on that range.

The value functions UnU_nUn​ are defined by the recursion (2)–(3):

U0(x)=E[−π(Y(x))],U_0(x) = \mathrm{E}\big[-\pi(Y(x))\big],U0​(x)=E[−π(Y(x))], Un(x)=∑i=1mpinmax⁡{rin+Un−1(x+1), Un−1(x)}+qn(x) Un−1(x−1)+p0n(x) Un−1(x).U_n(x) = \sum_{i=1}^m p_{in}\max\{r_{in} + U_{n-1}(x+1),\,U_{n-1}(x)\} + q_n(x)\,U_{n-1}(x-1) + p_{0n}(x)\,U_{n-1}(x).Un​(x)=i=1∑m​pin​max{rin​+Un−1​(x+1),Un−1​(x)}+qn​(x)Un−1​(x−1)+p0n​(x)Un−1​(x).

The first branch of each maximum is "accept", the second "reject". The booking limit of class iii at stage nnn is Eq. (7):

bin=min⁡{x:Un−1(x)−Un−1(x+1)>rin},b_{in} = \min\{x : U_{n-1}(x) - U_{n-1}(x+1) > r_{in}\},bin​=min{x:Un−1​(x)−Un−1​(x+1)>rin​},

with bin=∞b_{in} = \inftybin​=∞ when there is no such xxx. The difference Un−1(x)−Un−1(x+1)U_{n-1}(x) - U_{n-1}(x+1)Un−1​(x)−Un−1​(x+1) is the opportunity cost of one more booking. In Lean all of this is AirlineYieldMgmt.BookingLimits.Model with Model.U, Model.p0, Model.Standing and Model.bookingLimit.

Formalization targets

Goal: booking limits are optimal (§1, Eq. (7), p. 151)

For every stage 1≤n≤N1 \le n \le N1≤n≤N, fare class iii and reachable state 0≤x≤N−n0 \le x \le N - n0≤x≤N−n,

rin+Un−1(x+1)  ≥  Un−1(x)  ⟺  x<bin.r_{in} + U_{n-1}(x+1) \;\ge\; U_{n-1}(x) \iff x < b_{in}.rin​+Un−1​(x+1)≥Un−1​(x)⟺x<bin​.

The optimal rule accepts a class-iii request exactly while fewer than binb_{in}bin​ seats are booked.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1 (p. 151). If fff is nondecreasing and convex on y≥0y \ge 0y≥0 and 0<γ<10 < \gamma < 10<γ<1, then h(x)=Ef(Bin(x,γ))h(x) = \mathrm{E} f(\mathrm{Bin}(x,\gamma))h(x)=Ef(Bin(x,γ)) is nondecreasing and convex in x∈{0,1,… }x \in \{0,1,\dots\}x∈{0,1,…}.
  2. Terminal value (p. 151). U0U_0U0​ is concave and nonincreasing.
  3. All stages (p. 151). For every 0≤n≤N0 \le n \le N0≤n≤N, UnU_nUn​ is nonincreasing and concave on {0,…,N−n}\{0,\dots,N-n\}{0,…,N−n}, so Un(x)−Un(x+1)U_n(x) - U_n(x+1)Un​(x)−Un​(x+1) is nondecreasing in x=0,…,N−n−1x = 0,\dots,N-n-1x=0,…,N−n−1.

Significance

The result. Booking limits are how single-leg seat inventory is controlled in practice. The theorem says this simple class of rules loses nothing, even with cancellations whose rate grows with the number of bookings and with random no-shows at departure. The limits depend on the stage, and they need not be nested across classes (Remark 3 of the paper). The same concavity property identifies Un(x)−Un(x+1)U_n(x) - U_n(x+1)Un​(x)−Un​(x+1) as the optimal bid price for the leg. The companion mission (II, equivalent charging) reduces a model with class-dependent refunds to this one-dimensional recursion, so a formal proof of the present goal is the input needed to carry booking-limit optimality over to that model.

Formalizing it. The paper proves neither the concavity induction nor Lemma 1. It cites Lippman and Stidham (1977, Theorem 1) for the first and Shaked and Shanthikumar (1994, Example 6.A.2) for the second. The authors note that the cited induction carries over to their recursion (p. 151), but neither source states the result for exactly this recursion, with its state-dependent cancellation term and range-restricted probabilities. A machine-checked proof would therefore supply an argument the paper only points to, not just its bookkeeping. To our knowledge none of these statements has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The goal follows quickly once milestone 3 is available. The work is in milestone 3. The obvious induction pushes concavity through each term of the recursion. It fails at the cancellation term qn(x) Un−1(x−1)q_n(x)\,U_{n-1}(x-1)qn​(x)Un−1​(x−1): a product of a concave nondecreasing function and a concave nonincreasing one is not concave in general, so the term is not concave by itself. The null-event term p0n(x) Un−1(x)p_{0n}(x)\,U_{n-1}(x)p0n​(x)Un−1​(x) has the same problem, because its coefficient depends on the state. Only the combination of the two terms, together with ∑ipin+qn(x)≤1\sum_i p_{in} + q_n(x) \le 1∑i​pin​+qn​(x)≤1 on the reachable range, keeps the result concave. That constraint holds only on the range, not for every xxx: in the linear case qn(x)=qnxq_n(x) = q_n xqn​(x)=qn​x it fails for large xxx. This interaction between the range and the induction has to be handled with care. Lemma 1 is a separate, self-contained piece of discrete probability about binomial sums.

Formalization scope

  • Fare classes are Fin m; the paper's class iii is i.val + 1. Stages and states are ℕ; probabilities, fares, β\betaβ, π\piπ and values are ℝ.
  • Model.U is defined by structural recursion on the stage, for every x∈Nx \in \mathbb Nx∈N. Every theorem restricts its hypotheses and conclusions to the paper's range 0≤x≤N−n0 \le x \le N - n0≤x≤N−n.
  • x−1x - 1x−1 is natural-number subtraction. At x=0x = 0x=0 it is multiplied by qn(0)=0q_n(0) = 0qn​(0)=0, a convention the page leaves implicit (a cancellation needs a reservation).
  • The null-event probability is defined by Eq. (1), and its non-negativity is assumed only for 1≤n≤N1 \le n \le N1≤n≤N, 0≤x≤N−n0 \le x \le N-n0≤x≤N−n. This keeps the paper's linear-cancellation case inside the model.
  • Concavity, convexity and monotonicity of functions on N\mathbb NN are discrete (differences). π\piπ is a real function, convex and nondecreasing on [0,∞)[0,\infty)[0,∞) as on the page.
  • Binomial expectations are finite sums ∑k=0x(xk)γk(1−γ)x−kf(k)\sum_{k=0}^x \binom xk \gamma^k(1-\gamma)^{x-k} f(k)∑k=0x​(kx​)γk(1−γ)x−kf(k). The milestone for U0U_0U0​ allows 0≤β≤10 \le \beta \le 10≤β≤1.
  • The minimum in (7) ranges over the reachable states and lives in WithTop ℕ, with ⊤ meaning bin=∞b_{in} = \inftybin​=∞.
  • "An optimal policy accepts" means the accept branch attains the maximum in (2). No dynamic-programming optimality principle, policy space or claim about expected revenue is stated.
  • Ruling out the trivializing formalization: binb_{in}bin​ is defined by Eq. (7) as a minimum of a strict-inequality set. It is not defined as the number of states where acceptance is optimal, a definition under which the goal would hold by construction and lose its content (that the accepted states form an initial segment).
  • A proof needs finite binomial sums and discrete concavity arguments; Mathlib covers both. The discrete-concavity and binomial lemmas would carry over to other admission-control and inventory models. Proofs of any milestone, and of the goal assuming milestone 3, are welcome separately.

Selected references

  • J. Subramanian, S. Stidham Jr., C. J. Lautenbacher, Airline Yield Management with Overbooking, Cancellations, and No-Shows, Transportation Science 33(2), 147–167, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.33.2.147
  • S. A. Lippman, S. Stidham Jr., Individual versus Social Optimization in Exponential Congestion Systems, Operations Research 25(2), 233–247, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.25.2.233
  • T. C. Lee, M. Hersh, A Model for Dynamic Airline Seat Inventory Control with Multiple Seat Bookings, Transportation Science 27(3), 252–265, 1993. https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.27.3.252
  • M. Shaked, J. G. Shanthikumar, Stochastic Orders and Their Applications, Academic Press, San Diego, 1994 (Example 6.A.2).
5 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects I: Under Loss Aversion the Steady States Form an Interval and Optimal Paths ConvergeResearch Paper

Motivation

Consumers judge a price against a reference price, an internal standard formed from the prices they have seen before. A price below the reference is perceived as a gain and stimulates demand; a price above it is perceived as a loss and depresses demand. Prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky 1979) adds that losses loom larger than gains of the same size: this is loss aversion. A firm that sets prices over many periods therefore faces a dynamic trade-off, because today's price moves tomorrow's reference price and with it tomorrow's demand.

Popescu and Wu (Operations Research 55(3), 2007) analyze this problem for general nonlinear demand. Earlier work of Kopalle, Rao and Assunção (1996) and of Fibich, Gavious and Lowengart (2003) had treated linear or piecewise-linear reference effects with explicit solutions. Popescu and Wu replace explicit solutions by structural arguments (supermodularity, monotone policies, comparison of value functions), which is what makes the results reusable for any demand model satisfying their assumptions. Their headline result for loss-averse consumers is that the long-run prices form a whole interval rather than a single point, and that optimal prices outside the interval move monotonically to its nearer endpoint.

Setting

A monopolist chooses a price ptp_tpt​ from P=[0,pˉ]P=[0,\bar p]P=[0,pˉ​], pˉ>0\bar p>0pˉ​>0, in each period t=0,1,2,…t=0,1,2,\dotst=0,1,2,…. The reference price follows exponential smoothing,

rt+1=αrt+(1−α)pt,α∈[0,1),r_{t+1}=\alpha r_t+(1-\alpha)p_t,\qquad \alpha\in[0,1),rt+1​=αrt​+(1−α)pt​,α∈[0,1),

from a given initial reference price r0r_0r0​. Demand is D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r)D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r-p,r)D(p,r)=d(p)+R(r−p,r), where d(p)=D(p,p)d(p)=D(p,p)d(p)=D(p,p) is the base demand and R(x,r)R(x,r)R(x,r) is the reference effect of the perceived gain x=r−px=r-px=r−p, so that R(0,r)=0R(0,r)=0R(0,r)=0. The per-period profit (zero unit cost) is Π(p,r)=p D(p,r)\Pi(p,r)=p\,D(p,r)Π(p,r)=pD(p,r), the base profit is π(p)=p d(p)\pi(p)=p\,d(p)π(p)=pd(p), and λ(r)\lambda(r)λ(r) denotes the slope of R(⋅,r)R(\cdot,r)R(⋅,r) at x=0x=0x=0.

For a discount factor β∈(0,1)\beta\in(0,1)β∈(0,1), the value function is the supremum of discounted profit over all price sequences in PPP:

V(r0)=sup⁡(pt)∈PN∑t≥0βt Π(pt,rt).V(r_0)=\sup_{(p_t)\in P^{\mathbb N}}\sum_{t\ge 0}\beta^t\,\Pi(p_t,r_t).V(r0​)=(pt​)∈PNsup​t≥0∑​βtΠ(pt​,rt​).

The Bellman objective is W(p,r)=Π(p,r)+βV(αr+(1−α)p)W(p,r)=\Pi(p,r)+\beta V(\alpha r+(1-\alpha)p)W(p,r)=Π(p,r)+βV(αr+(1−α)p). The optimal pricing policy p∗(r)p^*(r)p∗(r) is the largest maximizer of W(⋅,r)W(\cdot,r)W(⋅,r) over PPP, and q∗(r)=αr+(1−α)p∗(r)q^*(r)=\alpha r+(1-\alpha)p^*(r)q∗(r)=αr+(1−α)p∗(r) is the next reference price. The state path is rt+1∗=q∗(rt∗)r^*_{t+1}=q^*(r^*_t)rt+1∗​=q∗(rt∗​) and the price path is pt∗=p∗(rt∗)p^*_t=p^*(r^*_t)pt∗​=p∗(rt∗​). A steady state is a price p∗∗∈Pp^{**}\in Pp∗∗∈P with p∗(p∗∗)=p∗∗p^*(p^{**})=p^{**}p∗(p∗∗)=p∗∗.

The standing Assumption 1 requires DDD to be nonnegative, bounded and continuous, decreasing in ppp, increasing in rrr, and RRR increasing in xxx. For a smooth (loss-neutral) RRR, Assumptions 2–3 require RRR to be twice differentiable, π\piπ to be nonmonotonic and concave, π′(r)−rλ(r)\pi'(r)-r\lambda(r)π′(r)−rλ(r) to be strictly decreasing, and the reference profit ΠR(p,r)=pR(r−p,r)\Pi^R(p,r)=pR(r-p,r)ΠR(p,r)=pR(r−p,r) to be concave in ppp and supermodular.

Under loss aversion the reference effect is kinked: RK(x,r)=RG(x,r)R_K(x,r)=R_G(x,r)RK​(x,r)=RG​(x,r) for gains x≥0x\ge 0x≥0 and RK(x,r)=RL(x,r)R_K(x,r)=R_L(x,r)RK​(x,r)=RL​(x,r) for losses x<0x<0x<0. Assumption 4 makes RGR_GRG​ and RLR_LRL​ twice differentiable and increasing in xxx, makes RG−RLR_G-R_LRG​−RL​ single crossing, and imposes λL(r)>λG(r)\lambda_L(r)>\lambda_G(r)λL​(r)>λG​(r). Assumption 5 requires the gain and loss profits to satisfy Assumption 3. The problems (K)(K)(K), (PL)(P_L)(PL​) and (PG)(P_G)(PG​) are the pricing problem with reference effect RKR_KRK​, RLR_LRL​ and RGR_GRG​, respectively, and (Pθ)(P_\theta)(Pθ​) uses Rθ=θRG+(1−θ)RLR_\theta=\theta R_G+(1-\theta)R_LRθ​=θRG​+(1−θ)RL​ for θ∈[0,1]\theta\in[0,1]θ∈[0,1].

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4 of the paper

There exist prices pL∗∗≤pG∗∗p^{**}_L\le p^{**}_GpL∗∗​≤pG∗∗​ such that pL∗∗p^{**}_LpL∗∗​ is the unique steady state of (PL)(P_L)(PL​), pG∗∗p^{**}_GpG∗∗​ is the unique steady state of (PG)(P_G)(PG​), and

{ r: r is a steady state of (K) }=[pL∗∗,pG∗∗].\{\,r:\ r \text{ is a steady state of }(K)\,\}=[p^{**}_L,p^{**}_G].{r: r is a steady state of (K)}=[pL∗∗​,pG∗∗​].

Moreover, the following hold:

  • from r0∈[pL∗∗,pG∗∗]r_0\in[p^{**}_L,p^{**}_G]r0​∈[pL∗∗​,pG∗∗​], the optimal price path of (K)(K)(K) is constant, pt∗=r0p^*_t=r_0pt∗​=r0​;
  • from r0<pL∗∗r_0<p^{**}_Lr0​<pL∗∗​, the state path of (K)(K)(K) is nondecreasing and converges to pL∗∗p^{**}_LpL∗∗​, and so does the price path;
  • from r0>pG∗∗r_0>p^{**}_Gr0​>pG∗∗​, the state path is nonincreasing and converges to pG∗∗p^{**}_GpG∗∗​, and so does the price path.

Milestones

In attack order, the milestones are:

  • Remark 2 (VVV increasing);
  • Lemma 2 (q∗q^*q∗ increasing);
  • Theorem 1, first sentence (a steady state is the unique solution of π′(p)/(1−β)=pλ(p)/(1−αβ)\pi'(p)/(1-\beta)=p\lambda(p)/(1-\alpha\beta)π′(p)/(1−β)=pλ(p)/(1−αβ));
  • Theorem 2 (a unique steady state exists and attracts every optimal path, with monotone state paths);
  • Remark 3 (a steeper reference effect gives a lower steady state);
  • Lemma 4 ((Pθ)(P_\theta)(Pθ​) satisfies Assumptions 1–3, Vθ≥VKV_\theta\ge V_KVθ​≥VK​, and steady states of (Pθ)(P_\theta)(Pθ​) are steady states of (K)(K)(K));
  • the §5.2 statement that the steady states pθ∗∗p^{**}_\thetapθ∗∗​ span [pL∗∗,pG∗∗][p^{**}_L,p^{**}_G][pL∗∗​,pG∗∗​];
  • the §A.11 identity VK(r0)=VL(r0)V_K(r_0)=V_L(r_0)VK​(r0​)=VL​(r0​) for r0<pL∗∗r_0<p^{**}_Lr0​<pL∗∗​.

Significance

The theorem separates loss-averse markets from loss-neutral ones. With a smooth reference effect, Theorem 2 gives one long-run price. Under loss aversion, every price in [pL∗∗,pG∗∗][p^{**}_L,p^{**}_G][pL∗∗​,pG∗∗​] is self-sustaining: a firm that starts there gains nothing by moving. Prices therefore exhibit stickiness, an interval of rigid prices, which is the dynamic counterpart of the kink in the reference effect. The paper uses this result to derive price monotonicity under loss aversion (its Proposition 4) and the behavior of myopic firms (its Proposition 5).

The result is proved in the paper; nothing here is open. What the mission adds is a machine-checked proof, and that proof has to supply steps the paper passes over quickly. Among them are the existence of steady states in Theorem 2 (the paper argues it in two sentences) and the largest-maximizer bookkeeping when steady states are transferred from (Pθ)(P_\theta)(Pθ​) to (K)(K)(K).

Difficulty

The bulk of the work sits in the infinite-horizon dynamic program itself. The value function is a supremum over infinite price sequences. Before any comparative statics can be done, one must show that it satisfies the Bellman equation (2), that it is continuous, and that the argmax is nonempty, so that the largest maximizer is well defined and actually maximizes. The monotonicity of q∗q^*q∗ does not follow from supermodularity of Π\PiΠ alone, because the policy maximizes current profit plus a continuation value evaluated at a state that itself depends on the price.

For the kinked problem, RKR_KRK​ is not differentiable at x=0x=0x=0, so the first-order analysis behind Theorem 1 does not apply to (K)(K)(K). A first-order condition with one-sided derivatives is the natural first idea. It yields inequalities that every steady state must satisfy, but it establishes neither that steady states exist nor that the whole interval consists of steady states. The set equality also depends on the largest-maximizer convention, since a price that is merely a maximizer of the Bellman objective is not a steady state under the paper's definition.

Formalization scope

All declarations live in the namespace ReferencePricing.LossAversion.

  • Data. The model data are a base demand d : ℝ → ℝ and reference effects R : ℝ → ℝ → ℝ, with demand d p + R (r - p) r. R(0,r)=0R(0,r)=0R(0,r)=0 is a field of Assumption 1.
  • Value function. value takes the per-period profit as a parameter and is the real supremum ⨆ over sequences ℕ → Set.Icc 0 pbar of the tsum of discounted profits. It is not a function assumed to solve (2).
  • Policy. optPrice is sSup of the set of maximizers in PPP of the Bellman objective, following the paper's largest-maximizer convention. Nonemptiness of that set is to be proved, never assumed.
  • Steady states. IsSteadyState r is r ∈ P ∧ optPrice r = r.
  • Encodings. Monotonicity, concavity and supermodularity hypotheses are required on PPP or P×PP\times PP×P, and monotonicity in xxx and single crossing on the reachable gains [r−pˉ,r][r-\bar p,r][r−pˉ​,r]. "Twice differentiable" means that the uncurried function and its Fréchet derivative are differentiable. "Nonmonotonic" means neither monotone nor antitone on PPP.
  • Added hypotheses. Two hypotheses are added and disclosed in each item. The base demand ddd is differentiable, because π′\pi'π′ appears in Assumption 3(b). The demands of RGR_GRG​ and RLR_LRL​ satisfy Assumption 1, which the paper's proof of Lemma 4 uses.
  • Typos. The page's typo "r0>pG∗r_0>p^*_Gr0​>pG∗​" in Theorem 4 is read as pG∗∗p^{**}_GpG∗∗​.
  • Ruling out trivial versions. The goal quantifies pL∗∗p^{**}_LpL∗∗​ and pG∗∗p^{**}_GpG∗∗​ existentially with uniqueness, so the existence of these steady states is part of the claim. It is not a formalization with arbitrary endpoints supplied as hypotheses, nor one with "some optimal policy" in place of the largest maximizer. The hypotheses are jointly satisfiable: the linear instance pˉ=3/4\bar p=3/4pˉ​=3/4, d(p)=1−pd(p)=1-pd(p)=1−p, RL=x/4R_L=x/4RL​=x/4, RG=x/8R_G=x/8RG​=x/8 meets all of them.

A complete development needs:

  • the Bellman equation and continuity of the value function for bounded continuous rewards on a compact action set (Berge's maximum theorem);
  • Topkis-type monotone comparative statics on intervals;
  • convergence of monotone bounded sequences.

The first two are reusable beyond this mission, and contributions of either as general lemmas are welcome.

Selected references

  • I. Popescu and Y. Wu, Dynamic Pricing Strategies with Reference Effects, Operations Research 55(3):413–429, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0393
  • D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica 47(2):263–291, 1979. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185
  • P. K. Kopalle, A. G. Rao and J. L. Assunção, Asymmetric Reference Price Effects and Dynamic Pricing Policies, Marketing Science 15(1):60–85, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.15.1.60
  • G. Fibich, A. Gavious and O. Lowengart, Explicit Solutions of Optimization Models and Differential Games with Nonsmooth (Asymmetric) Reference-Price Effects, Operations Research 51(5):721–734, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.51.5.721.16758
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
  • N. L. Stokey, R. E. Lucas and E. C. Prescott, Recursive Methods in Economic Dynamics, Harvard University Press, 1989. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674750968
13 thms1 active userReviewed
Dynamic ProgrammingLinear OptimizationOperations Research+2·Captain: mikedeng1

On the Choice-Based Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management I: The CDLP Is Asymptotically Optimal under Proportional ScalingResearch Paper

Motivation

Airlines, hotels and railways sell a fixed stock of perishable capacity (seats on flight legs, room-nights) to customers who arrive over a finite selling horizon. Network revenue management decides, at each moment, which products to keep open for sale. In the classical independent-demand model each product has its own demand stream. In practice customers choose among the products on offer, and closing a cheap fare shifts some of its demand to a more expensive one. Talluri and van Ryzin (Management Science 2004) modelled this with choice-based demand on a single resource: the firm chooses an offer set SSS, and an arriving customer buys product jjj with probability Pj(S)P_j(S)Pj​(S).

On a network the exact dynamic program has one state per vector of remaining leg capacities, and cannot be solved at realistic sizes. Gallego, Iyengar, Phillips and Dubey (CORC Technical Report TR-2004-01, 2004) proposed replacing it with a linear program over the time allotted to each offer set, the choice-based deterministic linear program (CDLP). Liu and van Ryzin (MSOM 2008) analysed this LP. Their first result has two parts: the CDLP value is an upper bound on the optimal expected revenue, and the bound is asymptotically tight when capacity and horizon are scaled up together. For the independent-demand deterministic LP the analogous statement goes back to Gallego and van Ryzin (Operations Research 1997) and Cooper (Operations Research 2002). This mission targets the choice-based version.

Setting

A choice-based network instance has mmm legs and nnn products N={1,…,n}N = \{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}, and consists of:

  • an incidence matrix A=[aij]A = [a_{ij}]A=[aij​] with aij∈{0,1}a_{ij} \in \{0,1\}aij​∈{0,1}, where aij=1a_{ij}=1aij​=1 when product jjj uses leg iii; AjA_jAj​ is its jjjth column;
  • a revenue rj∈Rr_j \in \mathbb{R}rj​∈R for each product (no sign assumed);
  • an arrival probability λ∈[0,1]\lambda \in [0,1]λ∈[0,1] per period;
  • choice probabilities Pj(S)P_j(S)Pj​(S) for every offer set S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, with Pj(S)≥0P_j(S) \ge 0Pj​(S)≥0, Pj(S)=0P_j(S)=0Pj​(S)=0 for j∉Sj \notin Sj∈/S, and ∑j∈SPj(S)≤1\sum_{j\in S} P_j(S) \le 1∑j∈S​Pj​(S)≤1. The no-purchase probability is P0(S)=1−∑j∈SPj(S)P_0(S) = 1 - \sum_{j\in S}P_j(S)P0​(S)=1−∑j∈S​Pj​(S).

λ\lambdaλ and PPP are the same in every period. Each offer set has an expected revenue R(S)=∑j∈SrjPj(S)R(S) = \sum_{j\in S} r_j P_j(S)R(S)=∑j∈S​rj​Pj​(S) and a capacity-consumption vector Q(S)=AP(S)Q(S) = AP(S)Q(S)=AP(S).

The dynamic program. With remaining capacity x∈Nmx \in \mathbb{N}^mx∈Nm, an offer set is allowed if x−Aj≥0x - A_j \ge 0x−Aj​≥0 for all j∈Sj \in Sj∈S (no overbooking). The empty set is always allowed. The value with kkk periods left is V(0)≡0V^{(0)} \equiv 0V(0)≡0 and

V(k+1)(x)=max⁡S allowed at x{∑j∈SλPj(S)(rj+V(k)(x−Aj))+(λP0(S)+1−λ)V(k)(x)}.V^{(k+1)}(x) = \max_{S \text{ allowed at } x}\Big\{\sum_{j\in S}\lambda P_j(S)\big(r_j + V^{(k)}(x-A_j)\big) + \big(\lambda P_0(S)+1-\lambda\big)V^{(k)}(x)\Big\}.V(k+1)(x)=S allowed at xmax​{j∈S∑​λPj​(S)(rj​+V(k)(x−Aj​))+(λP0​(S)+1−λ)V(k)(x)}.

The optimal expected revenue over TTT periods from capacity c∈Nmc \in \mathbb{N}^mc∈Nm is V∗(c,T)=V(T)(c)V^*(c,T) = V^{(T)}(c)V∗(c,T)=V(T)(c) (dpValue).

The CDLP. Its variables are times t(S)≥0t(S) \ge 0t(S)≥0, one for each S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, and

VCDLP(c,T)=max⁡{∑SλR(S)t(S)  :  ∑SλQ(S)t(S)≤c, ∑St(S)≤T, t≥0}V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(c,T) = \max\Big\{\sum_{S}\lambda R(S)t(S) \;:\; \sum_S \lambda Q(S)t(S) \le c,\ \sum_S t(S) \le T,\ t \ge 0\Big\}VCDLP(c,T)=max{S∑​λR(S)t(S):S∑​λQ(S)t(S)≤c, S∑​t(S)≤T, t≥0}

(cdlpValue).

Scaling. For θ∈N\theta \in \mathbb{N}θ∈N, the θ\thetaθ-scaled problems have capacities θc\theta cθc and horizon θT\theta TθT. Write Vθ∗=V∗(θc,θT)V^*_\theta = V^*(\theta c,\theta T)Vθ∗​=V∗(θc,θT) and VθCDLP=VCDLP(θc,θT)V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}_\theta = V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(\theta c, \theta T)VθCDLP​=VCDLP(θc,θT).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 2 (p. 294)

lim⁡θ→∞1θVθ∗  =  lim⁡θ→∞1θVθCDLP  =  VCDLP(c,T),\lim_{\theta\to\infty}\frac1\theta V^*_\theta \;=\; \lim_{\theta\to\infty}\frac1\theta V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}_\theta \;=\; V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(c,T),θ→∞lim​θ1​Vθ∗​=θ→∞lim​θ1​VθCDLP​=VCDLP(c,T),

for every instance, every c∈Nmc \in \mathbb{N}^mc∈Nm and every T∈NT\in\mathbb{N}T∈N. It is stated as two Tendsto statements along θ→∞\theta \to \inftyθ→∞ in N\mathbb{N}N.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 1 (p. 294): V∗(c,T)≤VCDLP(c,T)V^*(c,T) \le V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(c,T)V∗(c,T)≤VCDLP(c,T) for every ccc and TTT.
  2. Scaling of the CDLP (proof of Proposition 2, first paragraph): VCDLP(θc,θT)=θ VCDLP(c,T)V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(\theta c,\theta T) = \theta\,V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(c,T)VCDLP(θc,θT)=θVCDLP(c,T) for every θ∈N\theta \in \mathbb{N}θ∈N.
  3. Lower half of the first limit (proof of Proposition 2, pp. 294–295): for every ε>0\varepsilon>0ε>0, eventually in θ\thetaθ, VCDLP(c,T)−ε≤1θVθ∗V^{\mathrm{CDLP}}(c,T) - \varepsilon \le \frac1\theta V^*_\thetaVCDLP(c,T)−ε≤θ1​Vθ∗​.

The goal follows from the three milestones.

Significance

The result. Proposition 1 makes the CDLP a certified upper bound on what any control policy can earn, whatever the choice model. Numerical studies use it to benchmark heuristics. Proposition 2 says the bound is exact to first order in large systems, so policies driven by the CDLP solution (time allocations, bid prices from its dual) lose only a vanishing fraction of revenue. It is the justification for the whole family of CDLP-based controls that the paper and later work study (column generation, decomposition, and later the affine and piecewise-linear relaxations of the choice-based network problem).

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper. No machine-checked version exists: no revenue-management DP with choice-based demand on a network, no CDLP, and no fluid-limit argument of this kind is on the platform. The existing RevenueManagement material from the Talluri–van Ryzin textbook covers single-resource and dynamic-pricing models. Formalizing the result produces a reusable network-RM DP with an offer-set action space, the CDLP as a Lean object, and a checked asymptotic-optimality theorem that other deterministic-approximation results (independent demand, bid-price heuristics) can follow.

Difficulty

The upper bound compares a stochastic dynamic program with a linear program. The natural route builds a feasible LP point from the optimal policy (expected times each set is offered), but the DP here is a recursion over capacity vectors, not a policy class with a notion of "expected time offered". That connection has to be made from the recursion itself.

The lower bound is harder. The paper's policy offers each set for a fractional number of periods and caps accepted demand at its mean after customers have chosen. Neither is an action available in the DP, where the firm can only pick an allowed offer set each period and must accept whatever the customer picks. The obvious transcription therefore does not type-check against the model: one needs a genuine DP policy whose revenue is θVCDLP−o(θ)\theta V^{\mathrm{CDLP}} - o(\theta)θVCDLP−o(θ) while it respects capacity on every sample path. The no-overbooking rule forbids offering a set once any of its products would exceed remaining capacity. Negative revenues are allowed, and λ\lambdaλ may be 000 or 111.

Formalization scope

Legs are Fin m, products Fin n, offer sets Finset (Fin n). The instance is a structure ChoiceNetwork m n carrying AAA (entries in N\mathbb{N}N, each 000 or 111), rrr, λ∈[0,1]\lambda\in[0,1]λ∈[0,1] and PPP with the three choice-model axioms. The DP and CDLP use one λ\lambdaλ and one PPP for every period, matching the paper's time-homogeneous model. Capacities and horizon are natural numbers; CDLP times and all values are real. θ\thetaθ ranges over N\mathbb{N}N, because θT\theta TθT must be a whole number of periods, and the limits use real division by θ\thetaθ.

V∗V^*V∗ is defined by the Bellman recursion (1), which the paper states is equivalent to the stochastic control problem (4). No measure-theoretic policy class is built. The maximization runs over the offer sets allowed at the current capacity, so the DP can neither overbook nor pick products outside an offer set. The paper's boundary condition Vt(0)=0V_t(0)=0Vt​(0)=0 is not imposed separately: it follows from the recursion whenever every product uses a leg, and imposing it on top could contradict the recursion. VCDLPV^{\mathrm{CDLP}}VCDLP is sSup of the objective over the feasible set. That set is nonempty (t=0t=0t=0) and bounded (0≤t(S)≤T0 \le t(S) \le T0≤t(S)≤T), so the value is the LP optimum.

The goal is the limit equality with both capacity and horizon scaled. A statement with only the upper bound, only capacity scaled, or a DP that ignores capacity or chooses products freely would be a trivializing formalization, and the definitions rule each of these out. Milestone 3 is the paper's conclusion stated on the DP value, not on the paper's informal policy. It is not a repair.

A complete development needs: LP duality or a direct feasibility construction for Proposition 1; the scaling identity for the CDLP; and, for the lower bound, a concrete DP policy together with a law-of-large-numbers or concentration estimate for sums of per-period sales (Mathlib's ProbabilityTheory.strong_law_ae and Hoeffding-type bounds are available). A policy-evaluation lemma that bounds the DP value below by the expected revenue of any feasible offer-set policy is reusable beyond this mission, as is the CDLP scaling lemma. Contributions to either are welcome.

Selected references

  • Q. Liu, G. van Ryzin, On the Choice-Based Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(2):288–310, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0169
  • K. Talluri, G. van Ryzin, Revenue Management Under a General Discrete Choice Model of Consumer Behavior, Management Science 50(1):15–33, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1030.0147
  • G. Gallego, G. Iyengar, R. Phillips, A. Dubey, Managing Flexible Products on a Network, CORC Technical Report TR-2004-01, Columbia University, 2004.
  • G. Gallego, G. van Ryzin, A Multiproduct Dynamic Pricing Problem and Its Applications to Network Yield Management, Operations Research 45(1):24–41, 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.24
  • W. L. Cooper, Asymptotic Behavior of an Allocation Policy for Revenue Management, Operations Research 50(4):720–727, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.50.4.720.2862
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

The d-Level Nested Logit Model: Assortment and Price Optimization Problems II: The Push-Up-Then-Push-Down Prices Converge to a Stationary PointResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers that sell many substitutable products must set all their prices at once, and a customer's reaction to one price depends on what else is on the shelf. The nested logit model captures this by grouping similar products into nests, so that raising one price shifts demand mostly to close substitutes. The ddd-level nested logit model extends the familiar two-level version to a whole taxonomy tree of depth ddd (for example category → brand → size). It is consistent with random utility maximization (McFadden 1978) and is widely used in demand estimation.

Pricing under logit-type models is harder than it looks. Already for the multinomial logit model, which is the one-level case, Hanson and Martin (1996) point out that the expected revenue is not necessarily concave in the prices. For the two-level nested logit, Gallego and Wang (2014) show that the expected revenue is not concave and can have several local maxima. Li, Rusmevichientong and Topaloglu (Oper. Res. 63(2), 2015) treat the general ddd-level model. Their pricing result, Theorem 7.3, is the target of this mission. It shows that a simple gradient-free iteration, the push-up-then-push-down (PUPD) algorithm, produces prices that converge to a stationary point of the expected revenue.

Setting

The products l=1,…,nl=1,\dots,nl=1,…,n are the leaves of a rooted tree T=(V,E)T=(V,E)T=(V,E), all at depth ddd. A further leaf, node 000 (the no-purchase option), hangs directly from root\mathrm{root}root. Every other node jjj is a nonleaf node with a nonempty set Children(j)\mathrm{Children}(j)Children(j) and a parameter ηj\eta_jηj​. The standing assumptions are ηj∈(0,1]\eta_j\in(0,1]ηj​∈(0,1] for nonleaf j≠rootj\neq\mathrm{root}j=root and ηroot=0\eta_{\mathrm{root}}=0ηroot​=0. Each product carries parameters αl∈R\alpha_l\in\mathbb Rαl​∈R and βl>0\beta_l>0βl​>0, and node 000 carries α0∈R\alpha_0\in\mathbb Rα0​∈R.

Given a price vector p=(p1,…,pn)\mathbf p=(p_1,\dots,p_n)p=(p1​,…,pn​), where the no-purchase price is fixed at p0=0p_0=0p0​=0, the preference weights are computed bottom-up:

Vl(p)=eαl−βlpl,V0(p)=eα0,Vj(p)=(∑k∈Children(j)Vk(p))ηj.V_l(\mathbf p)=e^{\alpha_l-\beta_lp_l},\qquad V_0(\mathbf p)=e^{\alpha_0},\qquad V_j(\mathbf p)=\Big(\sum_{k\in\mathrm{Children}(j)}V_k(\mathbf p)\Big)^{\eta_j}.Vl​(p)=eαl​−βl​pl​,V0​(p)=eα0​,Vj​(p)=(k∈Children(j)∑​Vk​(p))ηj​.

The expected revenues are Rl(p)=plR_l(\mathbf p)=p_lRl​(p)=pl​, R0(p)=0R_0(\mathbf p)=0R0​(p)=0, and

Rj(p)=∑k∈Children(j)Vk(p)Rk(p)∑k∈Children(j)Vk(p)R_j(\mathbf p)=\frac{\sum_{k\in\mathrm{Children}(j)}V_k(\mathbf p)R_k(\mathbf p)}{\sum_{k\in\mathrm{Children}(j)}V_k(\mathbf p)}Rj​(p)=∑k∈Children(j)​Vk​(p)∑k∈Children(j)​Vk​(p)Rk​(p)​

at a nonleaf node. The expected revenue of p\mathbf pp is Rroot(p)R_{\mathrm{root}}(\mathbf p)Rroot​(p). A customer walks down from root\mathrm{root}root, choosing a child with probability proportional to its weight. The probability θl(p)\theta_l(\mathbf p)θl​(p) of ending at product lll is the product, over the levels h=1,…,dh=1,\dots,dh=1,…,d, of VAn(l,h)/∑k∈Sibling(An(l,h))VkV_{\mathrm{An}(l,h)}/\sum_{k\in\mathrm{Sibling}(\mathrm{An}(l,h))}V_kVAn(l,h)​/∑k∈Sibling(An(l,h))​Vk​, where An(l,h)\mathrm{An}(l,h)An(l,h) is the ancestor of lll in level hhh.

Top-down, the scalars uj(p)u_j(\mathbf p)uj​(p) are uroot=Rrootu_{\mathrm{root}}=R_{\mathrm{root}}uroot​=Rroot​ and uj=ηjuParent(j)+(1−ηj)Rju_j=\eta_ju_{\mathrm{Parent}(j)}+(1-\eta_j)R_juj​=ηj​uParent(j)​+(1−ηj​)Rj​. A stationary point of RrootR_{\mathrm{root}}Rroot​ is a price vector at which the gradient of RrootR_{\mathrm{root}}Rroot​ is zero.

The PUPD algorithm starts from p0=0\mathbf p^0=\mathbf 0p0=0. Given ps\mathbf p^sps, it sets troots=Rroot(ps)t^s_{\mathrm{root}}=R_{\mathrm{root}}(\mathbf p^s)troots​=Rroot​(ps) and, for every other nonleaf node,

tjs=max⁡{tParent(j)s, ηjtParent(j)s+(1−ηj)Rj(ps)}.t^s_j=\max\big\{t^s_{\mathrm{Parent}(j)},\ \eta_jt^s_{\mathrm{Parent}(j)}+(1-\eta_j)R_j(\mathbf p^s)\big\}.tjs​=max{tParent(j)s​, ηj​tParent(j)s​+(1−ηj​)Rj​(ps)}.

It then updates pls+1=1/βl+tParent(l)sp^{s+1}_l=1/\beta_l+t^s_{\mathrm{Parent}(l)}pls+1​=1/βl​+tParent(l)s​ for every product lll.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 7.3 (p. 336)

∃ p∗∈Rn:lim⁡s→∞ps=p∗and∇Rroot(p∗)=0.\exists\,\mathbf p^*\in\mathbb R^n:\qquad \lim_{s\to\infty}\mathbf p^s=\mathbf p^* \quad\text{and}\quad \nabla R_{\mathrm{root}}(\mathbf p^*)=0 .∃p∗∈Rn:s→∞lim​ps=p∗and∇Rroot​(p∗)=0.

The whole sequence converges and its limit is stationary. No rate is claimed, and none is asked for.

Milestones

  • Lemma 7.1 (p. 335). For p∈R+n\mathbf p\in\mathbb R^n_+p∈R+n​ and every product lll,
∂Rroot∂pl(p)=−θl(p) βl(pl−1βl−uParent(l)(p)).\frac{\partial R_{\mathrm{root}}}{\partial p_l}(\mathbf p)=-\theta_l(\mathbf p)\,\beta_l\Big(p_l-\frac1{\beta_l}-u_{\mathrm{Parent}(l)}(\mathbf p)\Big).∂pl​∂Rroot​​(p)=−θl​(p)βl​(pl​−βl​1​−uParent(l)​(p)).
  • Corollary 7.2 (p. 336). For p∈R+n\mathbf p\in\mathbb R^n_+p∈R+n​, p\mathbf pp is a stationary point of RrootR_{\mathrm{root}}Rroot​ if and only if pl=1/βl+uParent(l)(p)p_l=1/\beta_l+u_{\mathrm{Parent}(l)}(\mathbf p)pl​=1/βl​+uParent(l)​(p) for all lll.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 7.3 turns a nonconcave, many-product pricing problem into an iteration that needs no gradient evaluations and no step size. Each iteration costs one bottom-up and one top-down pass over the tree. The paper's numerical experiments (§8) report that it reaches a stationary point much faster than gradient ascent. Lemma 7.1 gives the gradient of the expected revenue in closed form for any depth. Corollary 7.2 turns stationarity into a fixed-point equation in the prices, which is what makes a price-update scheme like PUPD natural.

Formalizing it. The proofs of Lemma 7.1 and Theorem 7.3 are in the paper's online Appendix E. The acknowledgments (pp. 340–341) record that an error found in an earlier version led to a new proof that the revenues under the PUPD algorithm are always bounded. A machine-checked proof would settle the convergence claim independently of that history. No nested logit or multinomial logit pricing result, and no part of this one, has a machine-checked proof on Prove2Me.

Difficulty

Lemma 7.1 is a chain-rule computation through a tree of power means, and it is technical rather than deep. The hard part is Theorem 7.3. The obvious fixed-point iteration pls+1=1/βl+uParent(l)(ps)p^{s+1}_l=1/\beta_l+u_{\mathrm{Parent}(l)}(\mathbf p^s)pls+1​=1/βl​+uParent(l)​(ps) suggested by Corollary 7.2 is not the algorithm. PUPD replaces uuu by the scalars tst^sts, which involve a maximum, and the update direction ps+1−ps\mathbf p^{s+1}-\mathbf p^sps+1−ps is in general not parallel to the gradient. So neither contraction arguments for the plain fixed-point map nor the standard ascent analysis of gradient methods applies directly. RrootR_{\mathrm{root}}Rroot​ is not concave and may have several stationary points, so convergence of the whole sequence, not only of a subsequence or of the gradient norms, is the substance of the claim.

Formalization scope

The node type is Option (Fin n) ⊕ Inner. Sum.inl (some l) is product lll, indexed by Fin n, so the paper's products 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n are 0,…,n−10,\dots,n-10,…,n−1. Sum.inl none is node 000. Inner is a finite type of nonleaf nodes containing root, with a parent map into Inner and a level function that encodes the ddd levels. Every nonleaf node has a child. Prices are Fin n → ℝ, so node 000 has no price coordinate, and all nnn products are priced (there is no assortment decision). The conventions:

  • Powers xηjx^{\eta_j}xηj​ are Real.rpow. Since ηroot=0\eta_{\mathrm{root}}=0ηroot​=0, Vroot=1V_{\mathrm{root}}=1Vroot​=1 and it is never used. Division is Lean's, but every denominator is positive under the standing assumptions.
  • RrootR_{\mathrm{root}}Rroot​, θl\theta_lθl​ and uju_juj​ are defined on all of Rn\mathbb R^nRn by the paper's formulas. The paper restricts to R+n\mathbb R^n_+R+n​, and Lemma 7.1 and Corollary 7.2 keep that hypothesis as printed.
  • The partial derivative in Lemma 7.1 is HasDerivAt of x↦Rroot(px\mapsto R_{\mathrm{root}}(\mathbf px↦Rroot​(p with pl:=x)p_l:=x)pl​:=x) at plp_lpl​. "Stationary point" is HasFDerivAt R_root 0 p (the gradient is zero). This is the unconstrained gradient, as on p. 335, with no boundary condition, and it is the same notion in Corollary 7.2 and in the goal.
  • θl\theta_lθl​ is defined by the printed product along the root-to-leaf path, and An(l,h)\mathrm{An}(l,h)An(l,h) is reached by d−hd-hd−h parent steps. θl\theta_lθl​ is not a free parameter.
  • The PUPD iterates are a definition (pupd) with p0=0\mathbf p^0=\mathbf 0p0=0 and the max-based tst^sts, and troots=Rroot(ps)t^s_{\mathrm{root}}=R_{\mathrm{root}}(\mathbf p^s)troots​=Rroot​(ps). The goal is not stated for an arbitrary start point or for the uuu-based iteration.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out: convergence is Filter.Tendsto of the full sequence to a point at which HasFDerivAt holds with derivative 000. It is not a statement about limit points, gradient norms, or an arbitrary sequence satisfying a hypothesis.

A complete development needs derivatives of Real.rpow compositions over a finite tree, positivity of the weights and choice probabilities, and a convergence argument for the PUPD iteration. The weight and revenue recursions over a finite rooted tree could be reused for the assortment half of the same paper and for other tree-structured choice models. Contributions to any milestone, and alternative proofs of Lemma 7.1, are welcome.

Selected references

  • H. Li, P. Rusmevichientong, H. Topaloglu, The d-Level Nested Logit Model: Assortment and Price Optimization Problems, Operations Research 63(2):325–341, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2015.1355
  • G. Gallego, R. Wang, Multiproduct Price Optimization and Competition Under the Nested Logit Model with Product-Differentiated Price Sensitivities, Operations Research 62(2):450–461, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2013.1249
  • W. Hanson, K. Martin, Optimizing Multinomial Logit Profit Functions, Management Science 42(7):992–1003, 1996. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.42.7.992
  • D. McFadden, Modelling the Choice of Residential Location, in A. Karlqvist et al. (eds.), Spatial Interaction Theory and Planning Models, North-Holland, 1978, 75–96 (cited as McFadden 1978 on p. 328 of Li et al.).
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🏆Completed
Group Theory·Captain: dbenbenn

Moore: the Følner function of Thompson's group F grows faster than any tower of exponentialsResearch Paper

This mission formalizes J. T. Moore, Fast growth in the Følner function for Thompson's group F, Groups Geom. Dyn. 7 (2013) 633–651 (doi:10.4171/GGD/201; arXiv:0905.1118v7, whose page numbers are used): if Thompson's group FFF has Følner sets at all, they are larger than any tower of exponentials.

Motivation

Whether Thompson's group FFF is amenable is a long-standing open problem, the goal of the F-amenability mission on this platform. By Følner's criterion a finitely generated group is amenable exactly when it has Følner sets, finite sets almost invariant under translation by the generators, of every precision. Moore's theorem is unconditional: for every finite symmetric generating set there is a constant C>1C > 1C>1 such that every C−nC^{-n}C−n-Følner set has at least exp⁡n(0)\exp_n(0)expn​(0) elements, a tower of nnn exponentials. If FFF is amenable, its Følner function therefore outgrows every tower, and FFF would answer negatively Gromov's question whether some primitive recursive function dominates the Følner functions of all amenable finitely presented groups (Moore's Question 1.2, from Gromov 2008, p. 578).

Timeline.

  • 1979: Geoghegan conjectures that FFF is not amenable (Cannon–Floyd–Parry 1996, p. 227).
  • 2001: Burillo, Cleary and Stein estimate word length in FFF by the size of reduced tree diagrams (doi:10.1090/S0002-9947-00-02650-7).
  • 2008: Gromov asks whether the Følner functions of amenable finitely presented groups are dominated by a primitive recursive function (doi:10.4171/ggd/48).
  • 2013: Moore proves the tower lower bound for FFF (doi:10.4171/GGD/201).

Setting

Thompson's group FFF (CannonFloydParry.F, published) is the group of order-preserving homeomorphisms of [0,1][0,1][0,1] that are piecewise linear with finitely many breakpoints, all dyadic rationals, and all slopes powers of 222. Moore multiplies elements as "fff followed by ggg"; that group, the opposite of the group of maps under composition, is MooreF, and it acts on the right.

A finite set A⊆FA \subseteq FA⊆F is ε\varepsilonε-Følner with respect to a finite Γ\GammaΓ (IsFolnerSet Γ A ε) when ∑γ∈Γ∣(A⋅γ)△A∣<ε∣A∣\sum_{\gamma \in \Gamma} |(A \cdot \gamma) \mathbin{\triangle} A| < \varepsilon |A|∑γ∈Γ​∣(A⋅γ)△A∣<ε∣A∣, where A⋅γ={aγ:a∈A}A \cdot \gamma = \{a \gamma : a \in A\}A⋅γ={aγ:a∈A}. The tower function is exp⁡0(n)=n\exp_0(n) = nexp0​(n)=n, exp⁡p+1(n)=2exp⁡p(n)\exp_{p+1}(n) = 2^{\exp_p(n)}expp+1​(n)=2expp​(n) (ThompsonAmenability.towerExp, published). The Følner function FølF,Γ(n)\mathrm{Føl}_{F,\Gamma}(n)FølF,Γ​(n) (folnerFunction) is the least size of a 1/n1/n1/n-Følner set, and ∞\infty∞ if there is none.

The proof works with finite rooted binary trees, recorded as the sets of addresses of their leaves (IsTree), on which FFF acts partially by acting on the addresses (treeAct), and with weighted Følner sets and marginal sets for partial actions of a group (IsWeightedFolner, IsMarginal). These are defined in the two definitions items.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1.1

For every finite symmetric generating set Γ\GammaΓ of FFF there is C>1C > 1C>1 such that, for every nnn,

A is C−n-Følner  ⟹  ∣A∣≥exp⁡n(0).A \text{ is } C^{-n}\text{-Følner} \implies |A| \ge \exp_n(0).A is C−n-Følner⟹∣A∣≥expn​(0).

The goal is the published F-amenability milestone ThompsonAmenability.exists_const_forall_isFolner_le_card, for the product of maps by composition and left translates; a milestone states the same theorem in Moore's conventions, and another states its second sentence, that FølF,Γ\mathrm{Føl}_{F,\Gamma}FølF,Γ​ is not eventually dominated by any exp⁡p\exp_pexpp​.

Milestones

Every numbered result of §§3–5 (Lemmas 3.4, 3.5, 3.9–3.12, 3.14, 3.15, 4.1, 4.2, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.7, 5.9, 5.10, 5.12, 5.13, Remark 3.8 and Claim 5.14), the unnumbered facts about trees and tree diagrams stated in §2, and the word-length bound Moore cites from Burillo, Cleary and Stein.

Significance

The result. The theorem constrains any proof that FFF is amenable: Følner sets of FFF, if they exist, cannot be found by any search whose size is bounded by a tower of fixed height. If FFF is amenable, it answers Gromov's question negatively. If FFF is not amenable, the bound is vacuous but its method, controlling how Følner sets distribute over tree diagrams, is one of the few quantitative tools on the problem.

Formalizing it. None of the paper is formalized. The general theory of §3 (partial actions, weighted Følner sets, marginal sets) applies to any group acting partially on a set and is reusable; the partial action of FFF on binary trees is the natural model for combinatorial arguments about FFF.

Difficulty

The difficulty is quantitative. A Følner set is defined only by an inequality between counts, and nothing in that inequality forces its elements to be large; yet the bound must hold for every Følner set, with a single constant CCC for all nnn, while the height of the tower grows with nnn. Any argument can therefore afford to lose only a constant factor in the Følner constant for each level of the tower.

Formalization scope

Lean representation and conventions.

  • Moore's FFF is (CannonFloydParry.F)ᵐᵒᵖ, so products and right translates match the paper; the goal is stated for CannonFloydParry.F with left translates.
  • Trees are finite sets of binary sequences (List Bool). Tree diagrams, their maps on sequences, equivalence and reducedness follow Moore's §2; a tree diagram describes an element of the published FFF through the dyadic intervals of its leaves, and Moore's sentence defining FFF as the reduced tree diagrams is a milestone.
  • A partial action is an Option-valued function, and the action of FFF is defined on all finite sets of sequences; on trees it is Moore's action.
  • Weighted Følner sets are finitely supported non-negative functions; sums over SSS are finite sums over their supports.

What is left out, and deviations.

  • Question 1.2 (Gromov's question) and Remark 5.11 (consequences for invariant measures on trees, not used in the proof) are not formalized.
  • In Definition 3.1, Moore's "for which all computations involving ⋅\cdot⋅ are defined" can be read two ways. It is read here as asserting that x⋅(gh)x \cdot (gh)x⋅(gh) is defined whenever x⋅gx \cdot gx⋅g and (x⋅g)⋅h(x \cdot g) \cdot h(x⋅g)⋅h are (Exel's composition law for partial actions), which Moore's proof of Lemma 3.5 uses and the action of FFF on trees satisfies. On the weaker reading, equality only where all three are defined, Lemmas 3.5, 3.9, 3.10 and 3.12 fail (the note on the §3 definitions links p2m theorems proving this).
  • Definition 3.13 is read with the joining chain staying inside the set; the literal reading makes every subset of a group acting on itself by right multiplication Γ\GammaΓ-connected for a symmetric generating set Γ\GammaΓ.
  • Lemmas 3.5 and 3.9 assume g≠eg \ne eg=e, where the strict inequalities fail; Claim 5.14 bounds the reduced diagram, where "a tree diagram" would be vacuous. Each is explained in the milestone's statement.
  • The word-length bound is cited: Burillo, Cleary and Stein prove it for elements with positive normal form, and Moore applies it to all of FFF.

What a development needs. Tree diagrams, normal forms and generation of FFF are published and proved on this platform (the Cannon–Floyd–Parry missions on tree diagrams and the normal form and the two presentations of FFF); Følner's criterion is published by Garrido's first mission. New are the combinatorics of binary trees as leaf sets, the bridge between them and the published tree diagrams, and the theory of §3. Proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • J. T. Moore, Fast growth in the Følner function for Thompson's group F, Groups Geom. Dyn. 7 (2013) 633–651. doi:10.4171/GGD/201
  • J. W. Cannon, W. J. Floyd, W. R. Parry, Introductory notes on Richard Thompson's groups, L'Enseignement Math. (2) 42 (1996) 215–256. doi:10.5169/seals-87877
  • J. Burillo, S. Cleary, M. I. Stein, Metrics and embeddings of generalizations of Thompson's group F, Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 353 (2001) 1677–1689. doi:10.1090/S0002-9947-00-02650-7
  • R. Exel, Partial actions of groups and actions of inverse semigroups, Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 126 (1998) 3481–3494. doi:10.1090/S0002-9939-98-04575-4
  • M. Gromov, Entropy and isoperimetry for linear and non-linear group actions, Groups Geom. Dyn. 2 (2008) 499–593. doi:10.4171/ggd/48
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Bandit AlgorithmsDynamic ProgrammingOperations Research+1·Captain: mikedeng1

The Complexity of Optimal Queuing Network Control II: Restless Bandits with Deterministic Transitions are PSPACE-hardResearch Paper

Motivation

Among queueing control problems, a small class admits efficiently computable optimal policies: a single server choosing among several customer streams (Klimov 1974). These problems can be recast as multi-armed bandit problems, whose optimal policies are given by Gittins indices (Gittins 1979), and those indices are computable in polynomial time. The most studied generalization that could have extended this tractability is the restless bandit problem of Whittle (1988), in which bandits that are not played also change state and incur cost. Whittle's index heuristic and its asymptotic optimality (Weber and Weiss 1990) made the model a standard tool in scheduling, sensor management and resource allocation.

Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1999) settled whether restless bandits are as easy as ordinary bandits. Their Theorem 4 shows that finding an optimal policy is PSPACE-hard, even when every transition is deterministic. The same paper shows that general queueing network control is EXP-complete (Theorem 1, the subject of a companion mission).

Setting

A restless bandit instance with deterministic transition rules consists of:

  • n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 bandits, indexed 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n, on a common finite state space S={1,…,M}S = \{1, \dots, M\}S={1,…,M};
  • initial states X1(0),…,Xn(0)∈SX_1(0), \dots, X_n(0) \in SX1​(0),…,Xn​(0)∈S;
  • two maps P,Q:S→SP, Q : S \to SP,Q:S→S: PPP moves the bandit that is played, QQQ moves every other bandit;
  • two rational cost functions c,d:S→Qc, d : S \to \mathbb{Q}c,d:S→Q;
  • a rational threshold KKK.

A policy is a map π:Sn→{1,…,n}\pi : S^n \to \{1, \dots, n\}π:Sn→{1,…,n}. At each time t=0,1,2,…t = 0, 1, 2, \dotst=0,1,2,… it plays the bandit i(t)=π(X1(t),…,Xn(t))i(t) = \pi(X_1(t), \dots, X_n(t))i(t)=π(X1​(t),…,Xn​(t)); then Xi(t)(t+1)=P(Xi(t)(t))X_{i(t)}(t+1) = P(X_{i(t)}(t))Xi(t)​(t+1)=P(Xi(t)​(t)) and Xi(t+1)=Q(Xi(t))X_i(t+1) = Q(X_i(t))Xi​(t+1)=Q(Xi​(t)) for every i≠i(t)i \ne i(t)i=i(t). The cost at time ttt is

C(t)=c(Xi(t)(t))+∑i≠i(t)d(Xi(t)),C(t) = c\bigl(X_{i(t)}(t)\bigr) + \sum_{i \ne i(t)} d\bigl(X_i(t)\bigr),C(t)=c(Xi(t)​(t))+i=i(t)∑​d(Xi​(t)),

and the average cost of π\piπ is

J(π)=lim sup⁡T→∞1T∑t=1TC(t).J(\pi) = \limsup_{T \to \infty} \frac{1}{T}\sum_{t=1}^{T} C(t).J(π)=T→∞limsup​T1​t=1∑T​C(t).

The classical multi-armed bandit is the case Q=idQ = \mathrm{id}Q=id, d=0d = 0d=0. The paper's general model has transition probability matrices; the deterministic case is a special case, so hardness for it implies hardness in general.

The decision problem RESTLESS BANDITS asks whether there is a policy π\piπ with J(π)≤KJ(\pi) \le KJ(π)≤K.

Problems are sets of instances, and instances are bit strings under a fixed binary encoding. A problem is in PSPACE if a multi-stack Turing machine decides it on every input using a number of stack cells polynomial in the input length. It is PSPACE-hard if every PSPACE language reduces to it by a polynomial-time many-one reduction: a map computable in polynomial time that sends yes-instances to yes-instances and no-instances to no-instances. It is PSPACE-complete if it is also in PSPACE.

The proof starts from an auxiliary problem, CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING. The input is a circular tape with squares 1,…,n1, \dots, n1,…,n holding values in {1,…,A}\{1, \dots, A\}{1,…,A}, a rule F:{1,…,A}2→{1,…,A}F : \{1,\dots,A\}^2 \to \{1,\dots,A\}F:{1,…,A}2→{1,…,A} with F(1,1)=1F(1,1) = 1F(1,1)=1, and an initial configuration v(0)v(0)v(0). At time ttt the head points at the square i≡t(modn)i \equiv t \pmod ni≡t(modn), replaces its value by F(vi−1 mod n(t),vi(t))F(v_{i-1 \bmod n}(t), v_i(t))F(vi−1modn​(t),vi​(t)) and moves on; every other square keeps its value. The process halts if at some time every square holds 111. The question is whether the process halts.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4

RESTLESS BANDITS with deterministic transition rules is PSPACE-hard.\text{RESTLESS BANDITS with deterministic transition rules is PSPACE-hard.}RESTLESS BANDITS with deterministic transition rules is PSPACE-hard.

In Lean: PSPACEHard Instance.enc restlessBandits. Every language in PSPACE reduces to the decision problem in polynomial time.

Milestone 1: the circular-tape claim

CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING is PSPACE-complete.\text{CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING is PSPACE-complete.}CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING is PSPACE-complete.

In Lean: PSPACEComplete TapeInstance.enc circularTapeHalting, meaning the problem is in PSPACE and PSPACE-hard. The paper claims completeness at this point. The goal uses only the hardness half.

Milestone 2: the reduction

CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING  ≤p  RESTLESS BANDITS (deterministic).\text{CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING} \;\le_p\; \text{RESTLESS BANDITS (deterministic)}.CIRCULAR-TAPE HALTING≤p​RESTLESS BANDITS (deterministic).

In Lean: PolyReduces TapeInstance.enc circularTapeHalting Instance.enc restlessBandits. This is the existence of a polynomial-time reduction. It is not a statement about the specific construction in the paper.

Significance

The result. Theorem 4 shows that the index theory of multi-armed bandits does not extend to restless bandits. The index-based approach has no efficient exact counterpart unless P = PSPACE, even with no randomness at all. It is why the restless-bandit literature works with heuristics (Whittle's index) and asymptotic optimality results, not exact polynomial-time algorithms. It is also one of the standard hardness results cited for average-cost Markov decision problems whose state space is a product of many small components.

Formalizing it. The paper's argument is informal. It assumes the simulation of polynomial-space machines by circular-tape processes, and it describes the bandit construction in prose. A complete formalization produces a machine-checked PSPACE-hardness proof for a controlled-dynamics problem. It also produces a reusable space-bounded computation layer on Mathlib's Turing machines, which has polynomial time but no space measure. No part of this result has a machine-checked proof yet.

Difficulty

The obvious first idea is to encode a space-bounded machine's configuration in the bandits' joint state. The difficulty is that a policy sees only the product state and plays exactly one bandit per step. The rules PPP and QQQ are shared by all bandits, so no bandit knows its own index. The reduction also has to be exact for the average-cost criterion. A policy that simulates the computation correctly for a long but finite time, then deviates, must not reach average cost zero. A policy that halts must reach it. Milestone 1 needs its own work as well: a polynomial-space machine has to be recast as an in-place computation on a circular tape whose local rule FFF sees only a square and its predecessor.

Formalization scope

Conventions fixed in Lean:

  • Encoding. Instances are bit strings built by concatenating self-delimiting binary numerals (each bit doubled, then 01), sign-magnitude integers, (numerator, denominator) rationals, and tables listed in index order after their dimensions. The encoded length is polynomial in the instance's bit size and vice versa. Mathlib's Encodable/Nat.pair encodings are not used.
  • Machines. Time is Mathlib's Turing.TM2ComputableInPolyTime. PSPACE is defined here: a Turing.FinTM2 that halts on every input with the correct output bit, and in which every reachable configuration has total stack length at most p(∣input∣)p(|\text{input}|)p(∣input∣). The input stack is counted.
  • Decision version. The paper states only the optimization problem ("finding a policy with minimal average expected cost"). The decision version asks for ∃π, J(π)≤K\exists \pi,\ J(\pi) \le K∃π, J(π)≤K, with the rational KKK part of the input; the paper's reduction uses K=0K = 0K=0. Instances with n=0n = 0n=0 are no-instances.
  • Decision epochs and policies. Time is discrete, and t=0t = 0t=0 is the first decision. Policies are all deterministic stationary maps Sn→{1,…,n}S^n \to \{1,\dots,n\}Sn→{1,…,n}, as on the page. The dynamics are deterministic, so E[C(t)]=C(t)E[C(t)] = C(t)E[C(t)]=C(t). The average is the real limsup of 1T∑t=1TC(t)\frac1T \sum_{t=1}^T C(t)T1​∑t=1T​C(t). The running averages are bounded, so the limsup has no junk value.
  • Indices. Bandits, states, squares and values are Fin n, Fin M, Fin n, Fin A (0-based). Square j+1j+1j+1 is index jjj, and the value 111 is index 000.
  • Circular tape. The display on p. 303 prints "vi(t)v_i(t)vi​(t) if i=t mod ni = t \bmod ni=tmodn", which would update every square but one. The prose says that only the square under the head is updated, and the formalization follows the prose. The head is at square i≡t(modn)i \equiv t \pmod ni≡t(modn) at time ttt, so it starts at square nnn. Well-formedness (n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, F(1,1)=1F(1,1) = 1F(1,1)=1) is part of the problem.

Excluded trivialization. The goal quantifies over every PSPACE language and asks for a reduction computable in polynomial time on a compact encoding. Exhibiting one hard instance, stating the correctness of the paper's construction for the constructed instance, or measuring against a padded encoding would not prove Theorem 4.

Theorem 4 is stated as hardness only. The proof's last sentence and the introduction say "PSPACE-complete", but membership in PSPACE is not argued in the paper.

Infrastructure. A complete development needs: closure of polynomial-time TM2 computations under composition, which gives transitivity of ≤p\le_p≤p​ and turns the two milestones into the goal; a space-bounded simulation of TM2 machines by circular-tape processes; and the bandit construction with an average-cost analysis of eventually periodic deterministic trajectories. The encoding and PSPACE layer can be reused by any complexity result on the platform. Contributions to the polynomial-time composition lemmas are especially welcome.

Selected references

  • C. H. Papadimitriou and J. N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Optimal Queuing Network Control, Mathematics of Operations Research 24(2):293–305, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.24.2.293
  • P. Whittle, Restless Bandits: Activity Allocation in a Changing World, Journal of Applied Probability 25A:287–298, 1988. https://doi.org/10.2307/3214163
  • R. R. Weber and G. Weiss, On an Index Policy for Restless Bandits, Journal of Applied Probability 27(3):637–648, 1990. https://doi.org/10.2307/3214547
  • J. C. Gittins, Bandit Processes and Dynamic Allocation Indices, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 41(2):148–177, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01068.x
  • G. P. Klimov, Time-Sharing Service Systems I, Theory of Probability and Its Applications 19(3):532–551, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1137/1119060
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The Complexity of Optimal Queuing Network Control I: NETWORK OF QUEUES is EXP-completeResearch Paper

Motivation

Multiclass queueing networks model manufacturing lines, computer systems and communication networks. In these systems jobs of several types move between shared resources, and a controller decides where to send a job next (routing) and which waiting job a free resource works on (sequencing). The central design question is to find a control policy that maximizes long-run throughput. For decades this was attacked with heuristics, approximations and performance bounds (Walrand 1988; Bertsimas, Paschalidis and Tsitsiklis 1994; Kumar and Kumar 1994, all cited in the introduction of Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis 1999). No general exact algorithm faster than solving a Markov decision process over all network states was found.

Papadimitriou and Tsitsiklis (1999) explained why. For closed networks with exponential service times, computing an optimal policy is EXP-complete, and therefore provably requires exponential time, independently of whether P equals NP. The paper describes this as, in its authors' experience, the first intractability result of this strength for a practical optimization problem that had been attacked for decades. This mission formalizes that theorem, Theorem 1 of the paper.

Setting

A network of queues has a finite set CCC of customer classes and a finite set SSS of servers. Each class ccc has a single server σ(c)∈S\sigma(c) \in Sσ(c)∈S that can serve it, a mean service time μ(c)≥0\mu(c) \ge 0μ(c)≥0 and a weight w(c)∈Qw(c) \in \mathbb{Q}w(c)∈Q. Service times are independent and exponentially distributed with the prescribed mean. The classes are partitioned into DDD and RRR. When a class-ccc customer completes service it changes to a new class c′c'c′: the controller chooses c′c'c′ from a given nonempty set N(c)⊆CN(c) \subseteq CN(c)⊆C if c∈Dc \in Dc∈D, and c′c'c′ is drawn with given rational probabilities pcc′p_{cc'}pcc′​ if c∈Rc \in Rc∈R. The network is closed: no customer arrives or leaves.

The state records the number of customers of each class waiting, and the class (if any) being served at each server. A policy π\piπ makes decisions as a function of the current state. At time 000 and at every service completion it routes the completing customer (if its class is in DDD), and then lets each free server either idle or start a waiting customer of one of its own classes. Service is nonpreemptive. Under a fixed policy the state evolves as a continuous-time Markov chain. Let acπ(t)a^\pi_c(t)acπ​(t) be the number of class-ccc completions up to time ttt from the given initial state. The weighted throughput is

Jπ=lim sup⁡t→∞1t∑c∈Cw(c) E[acπ(t)].J^\pi = \limsup_{t\to\infty} \frac1t \sum_{c\in C} w(c)\, \mathbb{E}\big[a^\pi_c(t)\big].Jπ=t→∞limsup​t1​c∈C∑​w(c)E[acπ​(t)].

NETWORK OF QUEUES is the decision problem: given all these data (with the initial counts in binary) and a rational KKK, is there a policy π\piπ with Jπ>KJ^\pi > KJπ>K?

EXP is the class of problems solvable in time 2p(n)2^{p(n)}2p(n) for a polynomial ppp, on inputs of length nnn. A problem is EXP-complete if it lies in EXP and every problem in EXP reduces to it by a polynomial-time many-one reduction.

The reduction source in the paper is STOCHASTIC IN-PLACE ACCEPTANCE (SIPA). A stochastic Turing machine has nondeterministic and stochastic states, each with two continuations. Its computation tree is evaluated bottom-up, taking the maximum at nondeterministic nodes and the average at stochastic nodes, and the machine accepts if the value exceeds 1/21/21/2. SIPA asks, for a machine MMM and an integer nnn in unary, whether MMM accepts nnn zeroes without leaving the nnn input squares.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1

NETWORK OF QUEUES is EXP-complete.\text{NETWORK OF QUEUES is EXP-complete.}NETWORK OF QUEUES is EXP-complete.

In Lean, EXPComplete Instance.enc networkOfQueues. The problem is in EXP, and every language L∈EXPL \in \mathrm{EXP}L∈EXP reduces to it in polynomial time.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 1: SIPA is EXP-complete.
  2. Upper bound (proof of Theorem 1, p. 296): NETWORK OF QUEUES ∈\in∈ EXP.
  3. Completeness (proof of Theorem 1, pp. 296–300): SIPA ≤p\le_p≤p​ NETWORK OF QUEUES.

Milestones 2 and 3, Lemma 1, and the transitivity of polynomial-time reductions together give the goal.

Significance

The result. Theorem 1 separates what can be computed exactly for queueing networks from what cannot. Since EXP strictly contains P by the time hierarchy theorem, no algorithm computes optimal throughput policies for all closed exponential networks in polynomial time. Unlike NP-hardness, this is unconditional. The result justifies the literature's turn to approximations, bounds and asymptotic regimes, and it motivated the complexity analysis of restless bandits in the same paper. The stochastic-machine characterization of EXP, polynomial space with stochastic and nondeterministic states, is a tool of independent interest.

Formalizing it. The theorem is proved on paper, with a reduction that the paper itself presents in sketched form. It has no machine-checked proof. The formal work includes an exponential-time Markov decision process solver expressed as a Turing machine, a simulation of alternating polynomial-space machines by stochastic ones, and the queueing-network gadget with its optimality argument. It also produces a reusable layer: EXP and polynomial-time reductions over Mathlib's Turing.FinTM2, and a controlled continuous-time Markov chain for closed queueing networks.

Difficulty

The membership half needs an exponential-time decision procedure for the average-reward criterion. This is a multichain Markov decision process with instantaneous transitions, and it must be implemented and timed on an actual Turing machine rather than argued about informally. The hardness half is harder. The network has to encode a stochastic machine's configuration. In the paper, one customer per tape square carries the square's bit and a single test customer carries the machine's state and head position. The weights are chosen so that an optimal policy is forced to simulate the machine faithfully. The paper argues optimality through the average-reward optimality equation with explicit error bounds, and it states several steps (the normal forms of the machine, the padding to linear space) as standard. Every one of these has to be made precise. Finally, composing reductions needs the composition of polynomial-time Turing machines, which Mathlib states only as proof_wanted TM2ComputableInPolyTime.comp.

Formalization scope

All declarations are in the namespace OptimalQueuingComplexity.Network. The following conventions are fixed:

  • Encoding. Instances are bit strings built by concatenating self-delimiting pieces. Naturals (including customer counts) are in binary with doubled digits and a terminator, integers in sign–magnitude form, rationals as reduced numerator/denominator pairs, and tables in index order. Classes are Fin nC and servers Fin nS. SIPA's nnn is in unary. Encodable and Nat.pair are not used: their exponential padding would make membership in EXP trivial.
  • Well-formedness is part of the problem, and ill-formed instances are no-instances. It requires σ(cs)=s\sigma(c_s) = sσ(cs​)=s for busy servers, μ≥0\mu \ge 0μ≥0, probability vectors on RRR, and N(c)≠∅N(c) \ne \emptysetN(c)=∅ on DDD. It also requires, as an added hypothesis, that no routing cycle consists of zero-mean classes.
  • Zero mean service time means instantaneous service. Simultaneous instantaneous completions are processed in increasing server index.
  • Decision epochs are time 000 and every completion. Routing precedes sequencing. Policies are deterministic and stationary. The count of a class excludes the customers in service.
  • Throughput. E[acπ(t)]\mathbb{E}[a^\pi_c(t)]E[acπ​(t)] is an extended nonnegative real computed from the embedded chain and convolutions of exponential laws (ProbabilityTheory.expMeasure). The lim sup⁡\limsuplimsup is taken in EReal. The inequality Jπ>KJ^\pi > KJπ>K is strict.
  • SIPA uses the binary alphabet. Leaving the input squares is rejection. Acceptance means that some finite-depth tree value exceeds 1/21/21/2, which equals the paper's tree value for precise machines.
  • EXP means TM2ComputableInTime with time bounded by 2p(n)2^{p(n)}2p(n). Reductions are TM2ComputableInPolyTime. Hardness quantifies over every EXP language, not over one constructed instance.

A statement about the paper's specific gadget (its servers, router and weights) is a proof step and not a target. Contributions welcome beyond the targets include composition of polynomial-time machines, a decision procedure for finite average-reward MDPs, and structural facts about the throughput (finiteness under well-formedness, attainment by stationary policies).

Selected references

  • C. H. Papadimitriou and J. N. Tsitsiklis, The Complexity of Optimal Queuing Network Control, Mathematics of Operations Research 24(2):293–305, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.24.2.293
  • A. K. Chandra, D. C. Kozen and L. J. Stockmeyer, Alternation, Journal of the ACM 28(1):114–133, 1981. https://doi.org/10.1145/322234.322243
  • C. H. Papadimitriou, Games Against Nature, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 31(2):288–301, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0000(85)90045-5
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems V: The Average Cost Optimality Equation and Value Iteration for Finite State SpacesTextbook

Motivation

Average cost Markov decision chains model systems that run indefinitely and are judged by their long-run cost per step: admission and routing control in queues, inventory replenishment, machine maintenance. For a finite state space the classical tool is the average cost optimality equation (ACOE)

J+h(i)=min⁡a∈Ai{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a) h(j)},J + h(i) = \min_{a \in A_i}\Big\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a)\,h(j)\Big\},J+h(i)=a∈Ai​min​{C(i,a)+j∑​Pij​(a)h(j)},

whose solution gives both the minimum average cost JJJ and an optimal stationary policy. To be useful the equation has to be solved numerically, and the method used in practice is value iteration: compute the minimum nnn-horizon costs vnv_nvn​ and extract JJJ and hhh from their growth. This mission formalizes Sections 6.4–6.6 of L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems (Wiley, 1999, doi:10.1002/9780470317037): when the minimum average cost is constant, the ACOE holds, any solution of it is optimal, and value iteration converges, provided the optimal policies are aperiodic. When they are not, a transformation of the model makes them so.

Related classical work includes Blackwell's discrete dynamic programming (1962) and Schweitzer–Federgruen's analysis of undiscounted value iteration (1977); Sennott's treatment derives the ACOE from the discounted value function VαV_\alphaVα​ as α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1−, which is the route that extends to countable state spaces in later chapters of the book.

Setting

A Markov decision chain (MDC) Δ\DeltaΔ has a finite state space SSS; in each state iii a finite nonempty action set AiA_iAi​; nonnegative costs C(i,a)C(i,a)C(i,a); and transition probabilities Pij(a)P_{ij}(a)Pij​(a). A policy θ\thetaθ may use the whole history and randomize; a stationary policy eee always chooses e(i)∈Aie(i) \in A_ie(i)∈Ai​ in state iii and induces a Markov chain with transitions Pij(e)=Pij(e(i))P_{ij}(e) = P_{ij}(e(i))Pij​(e)=Pij​(e(i)).

For a policy θ\thetaθ and initial state iii: vθ,n(i)v_{\theta,n}(i)vθ,n​(i) is the expected cost of the first nnn steps, Vθ,α(i)V_{\theta,\alpha}(i)Vθ,α​(i) the expected α\alphaα-discounted cost, and Jθ(i)=lim sup⁡nvθ,n(i)/nJ_\theta(i) = \limsup_n v_{\theta,n}(i)/nJθ​(i)=limsupn​vθ,n​(i)/n the average cost. The value functions are the infima over all policies: vnv_nvn​, VαV_\alphaVα​ and the minimum average cost J(i)J(i)J(i). A policy is average cost optimal if Jθ≡JJ_\theta \equiv JJθ​≡J.

Section 6.2 of the book provides a stationary policy fff that is α\alphaα discount optimal for all α\alphaα close to 111 (a Blackwell optimal policy), and Section 6.3 builds from it a relative value function w∗w^*w∗. For a distinguished state zzz put

hα(i)=Vα(i)−Vα(z),h(i)=lim⁡α→1−hα(i),dn(i)=h(i)+nJ−vn(i).h_\alpha(i) = V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z), \qquad h(i) = \lim_{\alpha\to1^-} h_\alpha(i), \qquad d_n(i) = h(i) + nJ - v_n(i).hα​(i)=Vα​(i)−Vα​(z),h(i)=α→1−lim​hα​(i),dn​(i)=h(i)+nJ−vn​(i).

For a distinguished state xxx the finite horizon relative value function is rn(i)=vn(i)−vn(x)r_n(i) = v_n(i) - v_n(x)rn​(i)=vn​(i)−vn​(x).

A positive recurrent class RRR of a Markov chain is aperiodic if Pij(n)→πjP^{(n)}_{ij} \to \pi_jPij(n)​→πj​ for i,j∈Ri, j \in Ri,j∈R, where π\piπ is the steady state distribution. Assumption OPA ("optimal policies are aperiodic") requires every positive recurrent class of every average cost optimal stationary policy to be aperiodic. The aperiodicity transformation Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ with 0<τ<10<\tau<10<τ<1 keeps states and actions, scales costs by τ\tauτ, and sets Pij∗(a)=τPij(a)P^*_{ij}(a) = \tau P_{ij}(a)Pij∗​(a)=τPij​(a) for j≠ij \ne ij=i, Pii∗(a)=τPii(a)+(1−τ)P^*_{ii}(a) = \tau P_{ii}(a) + (1-\tau)Pii∗​(a)=τPii​(a)+(1−τ).

Formalization targets

Goal: convergence of value iteration (Proposition 6.6.3)

If J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J and Assumption OPA holds, then for any distinguished state xxx

lim⁡n→∞[vn(x)−vn−1(x)]=J,lim⁡n→∞rn(i)=:r(i) exists,\lim_{n\to\infty}[v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)] = J, \qquad \lim_{n\to\infty} r_n(i) =: r(i) \text{ exists},n→∞lim​[vn​(x)−vn−1​(x)]=J,n→∞lim​rn​(i)=:r(i) exists,

(J,r)(J, r)(J,r) solves the ACOE, and every limit point of the finite horizon optimal stationary policies is average cost optimal.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 6.4.1: unichain structure, bounded ∣Vα(i)−Vα(z)∣|V_\alpha(i) - V_\alpha(z)|∣Vα​(i)−Vα​(z)∣, or pairwise reachability imply J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J, with the implication diagram (6.26).
  2. Theorem 6.4.2: under J(i)≡JJ(i) \equiv JJ(i)≡J, hhh exists, solves the ACOE (6.31), yields optimal policies, ∣dn∣≤L|d_n| \le L∣dn​∣≤L and vn/n→Jv_n/n \to Jvn​/n→J.
  3. Proposition 6.5.1: any finite solution (F,r)(F, r)(F,r) of the ACOE (or of the inequality (6.36)) gives J≡FJ \equiv FJ≡F and optimal policies, and differs from hhh by constants on recurrent classes.
  4. Lemma 6.6.2: on an aperiodic positive recurrent class of an optimal policy, dnd_ndn​ converges to a constant.
  5. Lemma 6.6.5 and Proposition 6.6.6: Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ has the same recurrent classes and steady states, all of them aperiodic, costs scaled by τ\tauτ; value iteration on Δ∗\Delta^*Δ∗ produces a solution (J∗/τ,r∗)(J^*/\tau, r^*)(J∗/τ,r∗) of the ACOE of Δ\DeltaΔ.

Significance

The ACOE with constant JJJ is the standard certificate of optimality for finite average cost models, and Proposition 6.5.1 is what allows any numerical solution of it to be trusted. Proposition 6.6.3 is the correctness theorem of the value iteration algorithm (VIA 6.6.4 of the book), and Proposition 6.6.6 removes its one extra hypothesis at the price of a model transformation. Chapter 8 of the book runs this algorithm on a sequence of finite truncations to compute optimal policies for countable-state queueing models, so these results are the base of the book's computational method.

All results in this mission are proved in the book; none has a machine-checked proof. Existing formalizations on the platform treat average reward models under a unichain hypothesis with a single action set type; this mission assumes only a constant minimum average cost (multichain models allowed) and uses the general policy class throughout.

Difficulty

The ACOE itself is not the obstacle; convergence of vn(x)−vn−1(x)v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)vn​(x)−vn−1​(x) is. Theorem 6.4.2 bounds dnd_ndn​ but does not make it converge, and Example 6.6.1 of the book (a two-state periodic chain) shows that without aperiodicity vn(x)−vn−1(x)v_n(x) - v_{n-1}(x)vn​(x)−vn−1​(x) oscillates. The naive argument, passing to the limit in the finite horizon optimality equation, assumes the limits exist, which is exactly what is in question. Chain structure is the obstruction: a multichain optimal policy has several recurrent classes, and the Cesàro-type convergence that suffices for the ACOE itself is weaker than the pointwise convergence value iteration needs. The policy statement is also delicate, since the finite horizon minimizers fnf_nfn​ need not converge.

Formalization scope

  • The state type S is finite ([Fintype S]); actions are a type Act with per-state nonempty Finset action sets. Costs are in ℝ≥0, transition probabilities in ℝ≥0∞, and all value functions are defined in [0,∞] as infima over all history-dependent randomized policies, then converted to ℝ (they are finite for finite SSS).
  • JJJ constant is stated as J(i)=JJ(i) = JJ(i)=J for all iii, with J∈R≥0J \in \mathbb R_{\ge 0}J∈R≥0​. The relative value hhh is defined as the limit α→1−\alpha \to 1^-α→1− of hαh_\alphahα​, not taken as an arbitrary solution of the ACOE; Theorem 6.4.2(i) asserts the limit exists. The Blackwell optimal policy fff enters as a hypothesis: any stationary policy discount optimal on an interval (α0,1)(\alpha_0,1)(α0​,1).
  • min_a is Finset.inf' over AiA_iAi​. Limit points of policy sequences follow Definition B.1 (a subsequence agreeing eventually in every state). Finite horizon optimal policies fnf_nfn​ are any minimizers of vn(i)=min⁡a{C(i,a)+∑jPij(a)vn−1(j)}v_n(i) = \min_a\{C(i,a) + \sum_j P_{ij}(a) v_{n-1}(j)\}vn​(i)=mina​{C(i,a)+∑j​Pij​(a)vn−1​(j)}.
  • Aperiodicity of a class is the book's definition (Pij(n)→πjP^{(n)}_{ij} \to \pi_jPij(n)​→πj​ on the class), with πj=1/mjj\pi_j = 1/m_{jj}πj​=1/mjj​. Assumption OPA quantifies over average cost optimal stationary policies only, not over all stationary policies.
  • A trivializing formalization is ruled out: hhh, rnr_nrn​, dnd_ndn​ and vnv_nvn​ are computed from the model, not free functions constrained by the ACOE, and the ACOE conclusions are equalities of real numbers with the minimum over the actual action sets.
  • The model, criteria and Markov chain definitions restate those of mission IV of this series in their own namespace; they are reusable for any finite average cost result. Contributions of general Markov chain facts (convergence of P(n)P^{(n)}P(n) on aperiodic classes, Cesàro limits 1n∑tP(t)\frac1n\sum_t P^{(t)}n1​∑t​P(t)) are welcome.

Selected references

  • L. I. Sennott, Stochastic Dynamic Programming and the Control of Queueing Systems, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics, Wiley, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470317037
  • D. Blackwell, Discrete dynamic programming, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33 (1962), 719–726. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177704593
  • P. J. Schweitzer and A. Federgruen, The asymptotic behavior of undiscounted value iteration in Markov decision problems, Mathematics of Operations Research 2 (1977), 360–381. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.2.4.360
  • M. L. Puterman, Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming, Wiley, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470316887
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Lost-Sales Problems with Stochastic Lead Times: Convexity Results for Base-Stock Policies: Expected Discounted Cost Is Convex in the Base-Stock LevelResearch Paper

Why base-stock levels in lost-sales systems

In many inventory systems, demand that cannot be met from stock is lost rather than backordered: a customer who finds the shelf empty buys elsewhere. For such lost-sales systems with positive lead times the optimal replenishment policy is known to be complex and to depend on the whole pipeline of outstanding orders (Karlin and Scarf, 1958; Morton, 1969). In practice, firms nonetheless use base-stock (order-up-to-SSS) policies, which reorder every period whatever was sold. Choosing such a policy comes down to choosing one number, the base-stock level SSS. How easy that choice is depends on how the expected cost behaves as a function of SSS.

Earlier work had established convexity in SSS for backordered demand (Healy, 1992, for (s,S)(s,S)(s,S) policies) and for lost sales with deterministic lead times (Downs, Metters and Semple, 2001). Nahmias (1979) observed in simulation that the cost surface looked convex for lost-sales systems with random lead times, but had no proof. Janakiraman and Roundy (2004) proved convexity for lost-sales systems whose lead times are stochastic but do not cross. On every sample path this holds when holding cost is charged only on the inventory position. In expectation it holds for the full cost under the lead-time model of Kaplan (1970). This mission formalizes the finite-horizon part of that paper (Sections 3–4).

Setting

Periods are indexed n=0,1,…,Nn = 0, 1, \dots, Nn=0,1,…,N. The demand in period nnn is Dn≥0D_n \ge 0Dn​≥0. The order placed in period ttt has a lead time L(t)∈{0,1,2,… }L(t) \in \{0, 1, 2, \dots\}L(t)∈{0,1,2,…} and arrives in period t+L(t)t + L(t)t+L(t). The arrival index is

λn=max⁡{t:t+L(t)≤n},\lambda_n = \max\{t : t + L(t) \le n\},λn​=max{t:t+L(t)≤n},

the index of the latest order that has arrived by period nnn, with λn=0\lambda_n = 0λn​=0 when no order has arrived (in particular λ0=0\lambda_0 = 0λ0​=0). Assumption 1 (orders do not cross) requires n+L(n)n + L(n)n+L(n) to be weakly increasing in nnn.

Under an order-up-to-SSS policy, the system starts with SSS units on hand and nothing on order. Each period it orders what was sold in the previous period. With orders qn(S)q_n(S)qn​(S), the quantities of period nnn are:

  • the order q0(S)=0q_0(S) = 0q0​(S)=0 and qn+1(S)=yn(S)q_{n+1}(S) = y_n(S)qn+1​(S)=yn​(S);
  • the inventory on hand after receipts, xn(S)=S−∑λn<t≤nqt(S)x_n(S) = S - \sum_{\lambda_n < t \le n} q_t(S)xn​(S)=S−∑λn​<t≤n​qt​(S);
  • the sales yn(S)=min⁡(xn(S),Dn)y_n(S) = \min(x_n(S), D_n)yn​(S)=min(xn​(S),Dn​);
  • the end-of-period inventory on hand in(S)=xn(S)−yn(S)i_n(S) = x_n(S) - y_n(S)in​(S)=xn​(S)−yn​(S);
  • the end-of-period inventory position πn(S)=S−yn(S)\pi_n(S) = S - y_n(S)πn​(S)=S−yn​(S);
  • the lost sales ln(S)=Dn−yn(S)l_n(S) = D_n - y_n(S)ln​(S)=Dn​−yn​(S).

For a discount factor 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1 and cost rates h1,h2,p≥0h_1, h_2, p \ge 0h1​,h2​,p≥0, the discounted cost (3.1) is

CN(S)=∑n=0Nαn(h1 πn(S)+h2 in(S)+p ln(S)).C_N(S) = \sum_{n=0}^{N} \alpha^n \big(h_1\,\pi_n(S) + h_2\,i_n(S) + p\,l_n(S)\big).CN​(S)=n=0∑N​αn(h1​πn​(S)+h2​in​(S)+pln​(S)).

Here h1h_1h1​ is charged on the inventory position (on hand plus in transit), h2h_2h2​ on stock physically on hand, and ppp on each lost unit.

In the Kaplan lead-time model (Assumption 2) the arrival index is random: λ0=0\lambda_0 = 0λ0​=0 and λn=max⁡(λn−1,n−ρn)\lambda_n = \max(\lambda_{n-1}, n - \rho_n)λn​=max(λn−1​,n−ρn​) for n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, where (ρn)(\rho_n)(ρn​) is an i.i.d. sequence of nonnegative integer-valued random variables. The same dynamics, driven by λ(ρ)\lambda(\rho)λ(ρ), give random quantities xn(S,ρ)x_n(S,\rho)xn​(S,ρ), in(S,ρ)i_n(S,\rho)in​(S,ρ), πn(S,ρ)\pi_n(S,\rho)πn​(S,ρ) and ln(S,ρ)l_n(S,\rho)ln​(S,ρ). EρE_\rhoEρ​ is the expectation over ρ\rhoρ with the demands held fixed.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 8

Under Assumption 2, for every realization of demands D0,…,DN≥0D_0, \dots, D_N \ge 0D0​,…,DN​≥0, every 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1 and all h1,h2,p≥0h_1, h_2, p \ge 0h1​,h2​,p≥0,

S↦Eρ[∑n=0Nαn(h1 πn(S,ρ)+h2 in(S,ρ)+p ln(S,ρ))] is convex on [0,∞).S \mapsto E_\rho\Big[\sum_{n=0}^{N} \alpha^n\big(h_1\,\pi_n(S,\rho) + h_2\,i_n(S,\rho) + p\,l_n(S,\rho)\big)\Big] \text{ is convex on } [0,\infty).S↦Eρ​[n=0∑N​αn(h1​πn​(S,ρ)+h2​in​(S,ρ)+pln​(S,ρ))] is convex on [0,∞).

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3. On a noncrossing sample path, for every m≤N+1m \le N+1m≤N+1 and every nonnegative, weakly decreasing (βn)(\beta_n)(βn​), S↦∑n=0mβn qn(S)S \mapsto \sum_{n=0}^{m} \beta_n\, q_n(S)S↦∑n=0m​βn​qn​(S) is concave.
  2. Corollary 4. On a noncrossing sample path, for every m≤Nm \le Nm≤N and every such (βn)(\beta_n)(βn​), ∑n=0mβn ln(S)\sum_{n=0}^{m}\beta_n\, l_n(S)∑n=0m​βn​ln​(S) and ∑n=0mβn πn(S)\sum_{n=0}^{m}\beta_n\,\pi_n(S)∑n=0m​βn​πn​(S) are convex in SSS.
  3. Theorem 5. On a noncrossing sample path, ∑n=0Nαn(h1 πn(S)+p ln(S))\sum_{n=0}^{N}\alpha^n\big(h_1\,\pi_n(S) + p\,l_n(S)\big)∑n=0N​αn(h1​πn​(S)+pln​(S)) is convex in SSS.
  4. Lemma 6. Under Assumption 2, ∑n=0mβn Eρ[xn(S,ρ)]\sum_{n=0}^{m}\beta_n\, E_\rho[x_n(S,\rho)]∑n=0m​βn​Eρ​[xn​(S,ρ)] is convex in SSS for every m≤Nm \le Nm≤N and every such (βn)(\beta_n)(βn​).
  5. Corollary 7. The same holds for ∑n=0mβn Eρ[in(S,ρ)]\sum_{n=0}^{m}\beta_n\, E_\rho[i_n(S,\rho)]∑n=0m​βn​Eρ​[in​(S,ρ)].

Significance

Theorem 5 shows that, when the only holding cost is charged on the inventory position, the discounted cost of every noncrossing sample path is convex in SSS. It therefore stays convex under any distribution of noncrossing lead times and any demand process independent of them. Theorem 8 extends convexity to storage costs on stock on hand, which matter whenever payment is due on arrival. A sample-path statement cannot do this. On a sample path the extension fails: the paper's Example 1 exhibits a concave kink at S=1S = 1S=1 when h2>0h_2 > 0h2​>0. Both results make the choice of the best base-stock level a one-dimensional convex minimization, so bisection or simulation-based search methods are guaranteed to converge to a global optimum. The paper's Example 2 shows that noncrossing cannot be dropped.

The results are proved in the paper. As far as is known, none has a machine-checked proof. A formalization adds a precise, reusable model of periodic-review lost-sales dynamics with stochastic lead times, and a checked account of exactly which hypotheses (noncrossing, h2=0h_2 = 0h2​=0 on sample paths, the Kaplan structure in expectation) each convexity claim needs.

Difficulty

Individual per-period quantities are not convex: qn(S)q_n(S)qn​(S), xn(S)x_n(S)xn​(S), in(S)i_n(S)in​(S) and πn(S)\pi_n(S)πn​(S) are piecewise linear with slopes in {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1} and are neither convex nor concave in SSS. The obvious approach, proving each term of the cost convex and summing, therefore fails. Convexity appears only in the weighted sums, and only for nonnegative, weakly decreasing weights. The recursion defining xnx_nxn​ refers back to earlier orders through a window (λn,n](\lambda_n, n](λn​,n] that moves with the lead-time path, so an induction on mmm has to carry a family of weight sequences rather than one fixed sum.

In expectation, the storage-cost term ∑nβn in\sum_n \beta_n\, i_n∑n​βn​in​ is not convex path by path. Convexity of its expectation depends on the distributional structure of the Kaplan model, namely that the lead time of the order placed in period nnn is independent of the state of the system at that time. Stating this correctly requires a genuine probability space, not a sample-path argument.

Formalization scope

  • Model. One definition of the dynamics, parametrised by an arrival-index path λ:N→N\lambda : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{N}λ:N→N, a demand path D:N→RD : \mathbb{N} \to \mathbb{R}D:N→R and a real SSS (orderQty, onHand, sales, endOnHand, invPosition, lostSales). The sample-path results use arrivalIndex L (via Nat.findGreatest). The Kaplan results use kaplanIndex ρ, the recursion of Assumption 2 with λ0=0\lambda_0 = 0λ0​=0. The discounted cost (3.1) is discountedCost.
  • Hypotheses. Assumption 1 is MonotoneOn (fun n => n + L n) (Set.Iic N). Demands satisfy Dn≥0D_n \ge 0Dn​≥0 for n≤Nn \le Nn≤N. Weight sequences are β : ℕ → ℝ with 0 ≤ β n and Antitone β. Costs satisfy 0<α≤10 < \alpha \le 10<α≤1 and h1,h2,p≥0h_1, h_2, p \ge 0h1​,h2​,p≥0, the paper's Section 3 standing assumptions. "Increasing" and "decreasing" are weak, as the paper states.
  • Domain. Every convexity or concavity claim is ConvexOn ℝ (Set.Ici 0) / ConcaveOn ℝ (Set.Ici 0): the base-stock level is an initial stock, S≥0S \ge 0S≥0.
  • Expectation. (Ω,P)(\Omega, P)(Ω,P) is a probability space. ρ:N→Ω→N\rho : \mathbb{N} \to \Omega \to \mathbb{N}ρ:N→Ω→N has measurable coordinates, iIndepFun ρ P, and IdentDistrib (ρ n) (ρ 0) P P for all nnn. Eρ[f]E_\rho[f]Eρ​[f] is the Bochner integral ∫f(λ(ρ(ω))) dP(ω)\int f(\lambda(\rho(\omega)))\,dP(\omega)∫f(λ(ρ(ω)))dP(ω). For S≥0S \ge 0S≥0 the integrands are bounded and depend on finitely many coordinates, so they are integrable and the integral is the paper's expectation. Measurability of ρ\rhoρ is the field's standing convention.
  • Ruled out. The Kaplan statements are about the Kaplan index of an i.i.d. sequence, not about an arbitrary nondecreasing arrival process. The sample-path statements carry the noncrossing hypothesis, without which they are false. The convexity domain is the half-line, not a finite or degenerate set.
  • Needed infrastructure. Convexity and concavity of finite sums and minima (Mathlib's ConvexOn/ConcaveOn), integrals of bounded functions of finitely many independent discrete variables, and the independence and identical distribution facts of the Kaplan model. The dynamics and the Kaplan index are reusable for any further analysis of base-stock lost-sales systems, including the paper's infinite-horizon results. Proofs of the milestones in any order are welcome, as are auxiliary lemmas identifying the Kaplan index as the arrival index of a noncrossing lead-time path.

Selected references

  • G. Janakiraman and R. O. Roundy, Lost-Sales Problems with Stochastic Lead Times: Convexity Results for Base-Stock Policies, Operations Research 52(5):795–803, 2004. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1040.0130
  • R. S. Kaplan, A Dynamic Inventory Model with Stochastic Lead Times, Management Science 16(7):491–507, 1970. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.16.7.491
  • S. Karlin and H. Scarf, Inventory Models of the Arrow–Harris–Marschak Type with Time Lag, in Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.
  • T. E. Morton, Bounds on the Solution of the Lagged Optimal Inventory Equation with No Demand Backlogging and Proportional Costs, SIAM Review 11(4):572–596, 1969. https://doi.org/10.1137/1011090
  • S. Nahmias, Simple Approximations for a Variety of Dynamic Leadtime Lost-Sales Inventory Models, Operations Research 27(5):904–924, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.27.5.904
  • B. Downs, R. Metters and J. Semple, Managing Inventory with Multiple Products, Lags in Delivery, Resource Constraints, and Lost Sales: A Mathematical Programming Approach, Management Science 47(3):464–479, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.47.3.464.9775
  • R. Ehrhardt, (s, S) Policies for a Dynamic Inventory Model with Stochastic Lead Times, Operations Research 32(1):121–132, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.32.1.121
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Functional Analysis·Captain: savarin

Does the sharp diagonal Hlawka constant work for all complex matrices when p ≥ 256?Open Problem

The Hlawka inequality for Schatten ppp-norms is a cousin of the triangle inequality: it relates the norms of three matrices to the norms of their pairwise sums and their total sum. The question is how large a comparison constant is needed to make this inequality hold.

Does the sharp diagonal constant work for general matrices?

For every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256, the optimal Hlawka constant for complex diagonal matrices is already proved in Lean. This mission asks whether that same constant works for all complex matrices, including rectangular ones. The statement is a conjecture. Accepted diagonal result

Audenaert and Kittaneh's Problem 7 asks for the best constant in the Schatten-norm setting, if one exists. Existence of some finite dimension-independent constant for every real p>1p>1p>1 is already settled by the project's Lean theorem. The task here is to establish the specified sharp candidate in the range p≥256p\ge256p≥256. Audenaert–Kittaneh, §8.2, proved existence result

Definitions and the goal

For a complex matrix AAA with singular values si(A)s_i(A)si​(A), its Schatten norm is

Np(A)=(∑isi(A)p)1/p.N_p(A)=\left(\sum_i s_i(A)^p\right)^{1/p}.Np​(A)=(i∑​si​(A)p)1/p.

There is no normalization by dimension. For three matrices of the same shape, define

Δ3=Np(A)+Np(B)+Np(C)−Np(A+B+C),\Delta_3=N_p(A)+N_p(B)+N_p(C)-N_p(A+B+C),Δ3​=Np​(A)+Np​(B)+Np​(C)−Np​(A+B+C), Δ2=2(Np(A)+Np(B)+Np(C))−Np(A+B)−Np(A+C)−Np(B+C).\Delta_2=2\bigl(N_p(A)+N_p(B)+N_p(C)\bigr) -N_p(A+B)-N_p(A+C)-N_p(B+C).Δ2​=2(Np​(A)+Np​(B)+Np​(C))−Np​(A+B)−Np​(A+C)−Np​(B+C).

Formal Schatten-norm definition

The shared cyclic candidate is

Kp=sup⁡t∈[1/2,2]3(tp+2)1/p−31/p∣2−t∣6(tp+2)1/p−3(2∣1−t∣p+2p)1/p.K_p=\sup_{t\in[1/2,2]} \frac{3(t^p+2)^{1/p}-3^{1/p}|2-t|} {6(t^p+2)^{1/p}-3(2|1-t|^p+2^p)^{1/p}}.Kp​=t∈[1/2,2]sup​6(tp+2)1/p−3(2∣1−t∣p+2p)1/p3(tp+2)1/p−31/p∣2−t∣​.

The fraction is the deficit ratio for the coordinate triple (−t,1,1),(1,−t,1),(1,1,−t)(-t,1,1),(1,-t,1),(1,1,-t)(−t,1,1),(1,−t,1),(1,1,−t). For p>1p>1p>1, its denominator is positive on the displayed interval and the supremum is attained. Cyclic definitions and attainment

The goal asks whether Δ3≤KpΔ2\Delta_3\le K_p\Delta_2Δ3​≤Kp​Δ2​ for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256 and every triple of complex matrices of every finite shape. One constant for each exponent must work across all dimensions and triples. The endpoint 256, noninteger exponents, zero dimensions, singular and zero matrices, unequal norms and zero pair deficit are included.

Lean states the goal for complex-linear maps between any two finite-dimensional complex inner-product spaces, allowing different dimensions. No positivity, self-adjointness, commutativity or common diagonalization assumption is imposed.

Why the diagonal proof does not settle this

The singular values determine a matrix's own norm. However, the separate singular-value lists of three matrices do not determine the norms of their pair sums and total sum. The diagonal theorem therefore does not supply the seven matrix norms needed in this inequality. Their relative directions matter as well.

The existing existence theorem supplies a constant, but does not identify it with KpK_pKp​. A proof here needs the exact cyclic constant. A proof only for even integer exponents or a restricted class of matrices would not settle this goal.

What a resolution would establish

If the conjectured bound holds, it is automatically optimal uniformly over all finite matrix shapes: diagonal three-dimensional examples already require at least KpK_pKp​. Thus the missing step is that this constant works for arbitrary matrices. A counterexample would show that the diagonal constant is insufficient somewhere in the stated range. Cyclic lower bound, diagonal Schatten identity

Either outcome addresses this range of exponents; it would not settle the optimal general-matrix constant for every 1<p<2561<p<2561<p<256.

The foundation mission establishes the optimal diagonal constant for every real p≥256p\ge256p≥256. The cutoff-90 mission has since extended the diagonal result in Lean to every real p≥90p\ge90p≥90. The diagonal campaign invites contributors to lower that cutoff below 90.

This mission keeps p≥256p\ge256p≥256 and asks whether the same optimal constant works for arbitrary complex matrices, including rectangular ones. It can be pursued independently of improvements to the diagonal cutoff.

Its three linked milestones are already-proved background: existence, the sharp diagonal result, and the diagonal norm identity. The main general-matrix goal remains open. No complete proof is supplied for it.

References

  • K. M. R. Audenaert and F. Kittaneh, Problems and Conjectures in Matrix and Operator Inequalities, 2012, §8.2, Problem 7. arXiv:1201.5232
  • Ezzeri Esa and contributors, Hlawka–Schatten inequalities, Lean source repository, revision 79aa498bfcf7b22bd91d771fb32ec278e2d4704b. Existence and diagonal libraries

Established results on Prove2Me

  • The accepted sharp diagonal bound for every real p ≥ 256.
  • The accepted diagonal Schatten norm identity.
  • The public existence theorem for every real p > 1.
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Numerical AnalysisOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions IX: Convergence of the r-Algorithm with Exact Directional MinimizationTextbook

Motivation

The r-algorithm of N. Z. Shor is a variable-metric method for minimizing functions that are not differentiable everywhere, such as maxima of smooth functions, penalty functions and Lagrangian dual functions of integer and decomposition problems. It combines a subgradient step with a space dilation along the difference of two successive almost-gradients, and the book reports it competitive with the best variable-metric and conjugate-gradient methods on "gully"-shaped test problems (Shor 1985, §3.6, pp. 68–77). Its convergence theory is limited. Section 3.7 of Shor's book gives a convergence proof only for an idealized version with exact directional minimization, on a class of piecewise smooth functions, and the book itself calls a weakening of the assumptions and rate estimates desirable (p. 85). This mission formalizes that section.

Timeline. Shor and Zhurbenko introduced the r-algorithm in 1971 (Kibernetika, no. 3, 51–59). Shor analysed the convergence of its exact-line-search version in 1975 (Kibernetika, no. 4, 48–53). Section 3.7 of the 1979 Russian monograph, translated in 1985, gives that analysis for piecewise smooth functions. The book states on p. 85 that weaker assumptions and rate estimates would be desirable.

Setting

Let EnE_nEn​ be nnn-dimensional Euclidean space with inner product (x,y)(x, y)(x,y), n≥1n \ge 1n≥1. For a unit vector ξ\xiξ and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 the operator of space dilation is Rα(ξ)x=x+(α−1)(x,ξ)ξR_\alpha(\xi)x = x + (\alpha - 1)(x, \xi)\xiRα​(ξ)x=x+(α−1)(x,ξ)ξ.

Widths. For a compact convex set WWW and a unit vector η\etaη, the width in direction η\etaη is dη(W)=max⁡x∈W(η,x)−min⁡x∈W(η,x)d_\eta(W) = \max_{x \in W}(\eta, x) - \min_{x \in W}(\eta, x)dη​(W)=maxx∈W​(η,x)−minx∈W​(η,x). The width is d(W)=min⁡∥η∥=1dη(W)d(W) = \min_{\|\eta\| = 1} d_\eta(W)d(W)=min∥η∥=1​dη​(W) and the diameter is D(W)=max⁡∥η∥=1dη(W)D(W) = \max_{\|\eta\| = 1} d_\eta(W)D(W)=max∥η∥=1​dη​(W). With eρ(W)=inf⁡z∈W∣(ρ,z)∣e_\rho(W) = \inf_{z \in W}|(\rho, z)|eρ​(W)=infz∈W​∣(ρ,z)∣ put Kρ(W)=dρ(W)/eρ(W)K_\rho(W) = d_\rho(W)/e_\rho(W)Kρ​(W)=dρ​(W)/eρ​(W) (or +∞+\infty+∞ when eρ(W)=0e_\rho(W) = 0eρ​(W)=0) and p(W)=inf⁡∥ρ∥=1Kρ(W)p(W) = \inf_{\|\rho\| = 1} K_\rho(W)p(W)=inf∥ρ∥=1​Kρ​(W).

The class KKK. EnE_nEn​ is partitioned into closed sets Dˉ1,…,Dˉm\bar D_1, \dots, \bar D_mDˉ1​,…,Dˉm​, each the closure of its interior, whose interiors are disjoint and homeomorphic to an open ball or open halfspace; fif_ifi​ is continuously differentiable on an open set containing Dˉi\bar D_iDˉi​; and f=fif = f_if=fi​ on Dˉi\bar D_iDˉi​. At a point xxx, the set of almost-gradients Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the set of gradients ∇fi(x)\nabla f_i(x)∇fi​(x) of the pieces with x∈Dˉix \in \bar D_ix∈Dˉi​. For δ,ε>0\delta, \varepsilon > 0δ,ε>0, Pˉδ,ε(x)\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x)Pˉδ,ε​(x) is the closed convex hull of all Gf(y)G_f(y)Gf​(y), ∥y−x∥<δ\|y - x\| < \delta∥y−x∥<δ, together with the ε\varepsilonε-balls around the elements of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x).

The r(α)r(\alpha)r(α)-algorithm. Fix α>1\alpha > 1α>1, β=1/α\beta = 1/\alphaβ=1/α. Start from x0x_0x0​, g~0=0\tilde g_0 = 0g~​0​=0 and a nonsingular B0B_0B0​. At iteration k+1k + 1k+1 choose gf(xk)∈Gf(xk)g_f(x_k) \in G_f(x_k)gf​(xk​)∈Gf​(xk​) with (Bk∗gf(xk),g~k)≤0(B_k^* g_f(x_k), \tilde g_k) \le 0(Bk∗​gf​(xk​),g~​k​)≤0; set gk∗=Bk∗gf(xk)g_k^* = B_k^* g_f(x_k)gk∗​=Bk∗​gf​(xk​), rk=gk∗−g~kr_k = g_k^* - \tilde g_krk​=gk∗​−g~​k​, ξk+1=rk/∥rk∥\xi_{k+1} = r_k/\|r_k\|ξk+1​=rk​/∥rk​∥, Bk+1=BkRβ(ξk+1)B_{k+1} = B_k R_\beta(\xi_{k+1})Bk+1​=Bk​Rβ​(ξk+1​), g~k+1=Rβ(ξk+1)gk∗\tilde g_{k+1} = R_\beta(\xi_{k+1}) g_k^*g~​k+1​=Rβ​(ξk+1​)gk∗​, and xk+1=xk−hk+1Bk+1g~k+1x_{k+1} = x_k - h_{k+1}B_{k+1}\tilde g_{k+1}xk+1​=xk​−hk+1​Bk+1​g~​k+1​ with hk+1≥0h_{k+1} \ge 0hk+1​≥0 such that fff does not increase along the step and some almost-gradient at xk+1x_{k+1}xk+1​ makes a non-acute angle with g~k+1\tilde g_{k+1}g~​k+1​ in the transformed metric. The standing assumption is f(x)→+∞f(x) \to +\inftyf(x)→+∞ as ∥x∥→∞\|x\| \to \infty∥x∥→∞ (3.50).

Formalization targets

Goal: convergence to an isolated local minimum (Theorem 3.13)

Assume (3.50) and ∥xk+1−xk∥→0\|x_{k+1} - x_k\| \to 0∥xk+1​−xk​∥→0 (3.52). If x∗x^*x∗ is an isolated local minimum, the component of {x:f(x∗)≤f(x)≤f(x0)}\{x : f(x^*) \le f(x) \le f(x_0)\}{x:f(x∗)≤f(x)≤f(x0​)} containing x0x_0x0​ also contains x∗x^*x∗, and no other point zzz of that component has linearly dependent Gf(z)G_f(z)Gf​(z), then

lim⁡k→∞xk=x∗.\lim_{k \to \infty} x_k = x^* .k→∞lim​xk​=x∗.

Milestones

  • Lemma 3.2 (p. 80): for B=SOB = SOB=SO with minimum eigenvalue λ(B)\lambda(B)λ(B) of SSS, λ(B)d(W)≤d(BW)≤λ(B)D(W)\lambda(B)d(W) \le d(BW) \le \lambda(B)D(W)λ(B)d(W)≤d(BW)≤λ(B)D(W).
  • Lemma 3.3 (p. 80): for z1,z2∈Wz_1, z_2 \in Wz1​,z2​∈W, 0<β≤10 < \beta \le 10<β≤1 and γ=∥z1−z2∥/d(W)≥1\gamma = \|z_1 - z_2\|/d(W) \ge 1γ=∥z1​−z2​∥/d(W)≥1,
d(Rβ(z1−z2∥z1−z2∥)W)≥d(W)1+(1−β2)/(β2γ2).d\Big(R_\beta\big(\tfrac{z_1 - z_2}{\|z_1 - z_2\|}\big)W\Big) \ge \frac{d(W)}{\sqrt{1 + (1-\beta^2)/(\beta^2\gamma^2)}} .d(Rβ​(∥z1​−z2​∥z1​−z2​​)W)≥1+(1−β2)/(β2γ2)​d(W)​.
  • Theorem 3.11 (p. 82): for every βn<v<1\sqrt[n]{\beta} < v < 1nβ​<v<1, ε,δ>0\varepsilon, \delta > 0ε,δ>0 and r≥1r \ge 1r≥1 there is kˉ>r\bar k > rkˉ>r with
p(Pˉδ,ε(xkˉ))≥v2α2n−1α2−1.p\big(\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x_{\bar k})\big) \ge \sqrt{\frac{v^2\sqrt[n]{\alpha^2} - 1}{\alpha^2 - 1}} .p(Pˉδ,ε​(xkˉ​))≥α2−1v2nα2​−1​​.
  • Theorem 3.12 (p. 84): the level set {f=f∞}\{f = f_\infty\}{f=f∞​}, f∞=lim⁡kf(xk)f_\infty = \lim_k f(x_k)f∞​=limk​f(xk​), contains a point x∗x^*x∗ with Gf(x∗)G_f(x^*)Gf​(x∗) linearly dependent.

Significance

Theorem 3.13 is the only convergence theorem the book gives for the r-algorithm. Theorems 3.11 and 3.12 hold for any function of the class KKK, convex or not, and say that iterates of the exact version cannot stall at a point where the local almost-gradients are linearly independent: linear dependence of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is a generalized stationarity condition that includes 0∈conv⁡Gf(x)0 \in \operatorname{conv} G_f(x)0∈convGf​(x). Lemmas 3.2 and 3.3 are statements about widths of convex bodies under linear maps and single dilations, and apply to any analysis of space-dilation methods, including the ellipsoid method.

All four results and the goal are proved in the book, the goal as a corollary without a written proof. None of them is formalized. The formalization adds a machine-checked definition of the class KKK and of the algorithm as a relation on sequences covering every admissible choice of almost-gradients and stepsizes, a verified proof of the book's argument, and a check of the corollary step, which the book leaves to the reader.

Difficulty

The obvious argument for descent methods is that the function value drops by a fixed amount at every step unless the gradient is small. That argument fails here. The r-algorithm can make null steps, with xk+1=xkx_{k+1} = x_kxk+1​=xk​ while BkB_kBk​ and g~k\tilde g_kg~​k​ change, and its steps are measured in a metric that degenerates as the dilations accumulate (det⁡Bk=βkdet⁡B0\det B_k = \beta^k \det B_0detBk​=βkdetB0​). A small step does not certify near-stationarity, and a large accumulated dilation does not certify progress.

The difficulty is to relate the geometry of the transformed almost-gradient sets Bk∗Pˉδ,ε(xk)B_k^*\bar P_{\delta,\varepsilon}(x_k)Bk∗​Pˉδ,ε​(xk​) to the decay forced on BkB_kBk​. This needs width estimates for convex bodies under linear maps and single dilations, which Mathlib does not have. Theorem 3.12 also needs a uniform lower bound, near a compact level set, on the Gram determinants of the piece gradients, and the book's proof of it is only sketched. Theorem 3.13 is stated as a corollary with no proof at all. Deriving it requires showing that the iterates cannot leave the prescribed component of {f(x∗)≤f≤f(x0)}\{f(x^*) \le f \le f(x_0)\}{f(x∗)≤f≤f(x0​)}, and that their accumulation points reduce to x∗x^*x∗.

Formalization scope

  • EnE_nEn​ is EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin n) with n≥1n \ge 1n≥1; operators are continuous linear maps; Bk∗B_k^*Bk∗​ is the adjoint. KρK_\rhoKρ​ and ppp are valued in [0,+∞][0, +\infty][0,+∞], so Kρ(W)=+∞K_\rho(W) = +\inftyKρ​(W)=+∞ is represented exactly. Widths are sInf/sSup of support values, equal to the book's minima and maxima on nonempty compact sets.
  • A function of class KKK is given with its representation (pieces, open domains, smooth fif_ifi​), and Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the set of gradients of the incident pieces, as on p. 79. Linear dependence of Gf(x)G_f(x)Gf​(x) is the negation of linear independence of that set.
  • A run of the algorithm is a predicate on sequences xk,g~k,Bk,gf(xk),hk+1x_k, \tilde g_k, B_k, g_f(x_k), h_{k+1}xk​,g~​k​,Bk​,gf​(xk​),hk+1​; every theorem holds for every run. Step (3) divides by ∥rk∥\|r_k\|∥rk​∥, so rk≠0r_k \ne 0rk​=0 is part of the run: a run that reaches a point where no admissible choice gives rk≠0r_k \ne 0rk​=0 has no continuation, as in the book. The stepsize hk+1=argmin⁡h_{k+1} = \operatorname{argmin}hk+1​=argmin is one admissible choice, not the definition.
  • The standing assumption (3.50) is a hypothesis of Theorem 3.11 as well as of 3.12 and 3.13, because the book imposes it for the rest of the section on p. 79.
  • In Lemma 3.3, β>0\beta > 0β>0 is added (the bound divides by β2\beta^2β2). "Body" means nonempty interior. An isolated local minimum is a local minimum with a neighbourhood containing no other local minimum.
  • Runs exist, so the hypotheses are not vacuous. For f(t)=∣t1∣+2∣t2∣f(t) = |t_1| + 2|t_2|f(t)=∣t1​∣+2∣t2​∣ (four quadrant pieces), started at the minimizer x0=0x_0 = 0x0​=0 with null steps, one can choose gf(xk+1)=−gf(xk)g_f(x_{k+1}) = -g_f(x_k)gf​(xk+1​)=−gf​(xk​) at every step, and 0∉Gf0 \notin G_f0∈/Gf​ keeps rk≠0r_k \neq 0rk​=0. A formalization under which no infinite run exists would make every theorem vacuous. The run predicate also forbids the degenerate reading hk+1<0h_{k+1} < 0hk+1​<0, under which the monotonicity condition (a) would hold vacuously on an empty segment.
  • Needed infrastructure: widths of compact convex sets under linear maps (via the singular values of BBB), the effect of a rank-one dilation on widths, determinant bounds for products of dilations, and Gram-determinant continuity. The first three apply to any space-dilation method and are welcome as independent lemmas.

Selected references

  • N. Z. Shor, Minimization Methods for Non-Differentiable Functions, Springer Series in Computational Mathematics 3, Springer 1985, §3.7, pp. 77–85. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-82118-9
  • N. Z. Shor, N. G. Zhurbenko, A minimization method using the operation of space dilation in the direction of the difference of two successive gradients, Kibernetika (Kiev), no. 3, 51–59, 1971 (listed in the bibliography of Shor 1985; no online copy known).
  • N. Z. Shor, The analysis of convergence of a gradient type method with space dilation in the direction of the difference of two successive gradients, Kibernetika (Kiev), no. 4, 48–53, 1975 (listed in the bibliography of Shor 1985; no online copy known).
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AnalysisGeometry & Topology·Captain: Tamas Fulop

Moving Sofa ProblemOpen Problem

Motivation

The question of the largest area that can be moved around a corner has been studied since the late 1960s. Leo Moser posed it in 1966, and F. H. Hammersley gave the lower bound π/2+2/π≈2.2074\pi/2+2/\pi\approx2.2074π/2+2/π≈2.2074 and the upper bound 22≈2.8282\sqrt{2}\approx2.82822​≈2.828 in 1968. Joseph Gerver constructed a shape of area approximately 2.21952.21952.2195 in 1992 and described four constants AAA, BBB, φ\varphiφ, θ\thetaθ satisfying four equations, from which the shape is built. Dan Romik rewrote those equations in exact form as equations (1)-(4) in 2018 and reported high-precision values of the constants. Jineon Baek proved in 2024 that Gerver's shape is optimal: no larger shape can be moved around the corner. The proof was autoformalized in Lean 4 by Dean Cureton and AI agents in 2026, as the repository deancureton/MovingSofa, building on Dawid Trela's formalization of Gerver's constants and motion, Jonathan Ho's Brunn-Minkowski development, the Jordan-curve developments of R. Kirov and the TauCeti project, and Google DeepMind's formal-conjectures statement.

Timeline: Moser poses the problem (1966); Hammersley gives the π/2+2/π≈2.2074\pi/2+2/\pi\approx2.2074π/2+2/π≈2.2074 lower bound and the 22≈2.8282\sqrt{2}\approx2.82822​≈2.828 upper bound (1968); Gerver exhibits the 2.21952.21952.2195 shape and its differential equations (1992); Romik gives the exact equations and numerics (2018); Baek proves optimality (2024, arXiv:2411.19826); Cureton et al. complete a Lean 4 proof of optimality, existence and uniqueness of the constants, and movability of Gerver's shape (2026).

Setting

Work in the plane R2\mathbb{R}^2R2. The hallway is (−∞,1]×[0,1]∪[0,1]×(−∞,1](-\infty,1]\times[0,1]\cup[0,1]\times(-\infty,1](−∞,1]×[0,1]∪[0,1]×(−∞,1], the union of its horizontal and vertical sides. A moving sofa is a nonempty closed connected set sss in the horizontal side together with a continuous path mmm of plane isometries indexed by the unit interval, starting at the identity, keeping the image of sss inside the hallway at all times, and ending with the image inside the vertical side. Motions take values in the full isometry group E(2)E(2)E(2); continuity together with m(0)=idm(0)=\mathrm{id}m(0)=id forces the path to lie in the orientation-preserving component. The sofa constant is the supremum, in the extended nonnegative reals, of the areas volume(s)\mathrm{volume}(s)volume(s) over all moving sofas. The supremum is finite, at least 11/511/511/5, and attained.

Gerver's shape is defined from a rotation path. For constants AAA, BBB, φ\varphiφ, θ\thetaθ, let rrr be the piecewise function with breakpoints φ\varphiφ, θ\thetaθ, π/2−θ\pi/2-\thetaπ/2−θ, π/2−φ\pi/2-\varphiπ/2−φ from Romik's Theorem 2, let xxx and yyy be its cosine and sine integrals, and let ppp be the associated translation path. The sofa for those constants is the intersection over angles in [0,π/2][0,\pi/2][0,π/2] of the correspondingly rotated and translated hallways, with the endpoints using the horizontal and vertical sides. The four equations ABphiThetaSpec cut out the constants. They have exactly one solution with 0≤φ≤θ≤π/40\le\varphi\le\theta\le\pi/40≤φ≤θ≤π/4 and 0≤A0\le A0≤A, 0≤B0\le B0≤B. The same Lean development uses the identical notation as the formal statements, so prose and code read as one document.

Formalization targets

Goal: optimality of Gerver's sofa

For every AAA, BBB, φ\varphiφ, θ\thetaθ satisfying ABphiThetaSpec,

sofaConstant=volume(gerversSofaWith(A,B,φ,θ)).\mathrm{sofaConstant} = \mathrm{volume}(\mathrm{gerversSofaWith}(A,B,\varphi,\theta)).sofaConstant=volume(gerversSofaWith(A,B,φ,θ)).

The goal leaves unfixed which solution of the spec is used; by uniqueness all choices give the same shape up to the proved identification, so this is the stable form of Baek's Theorem 1.1. It asserts that the supremum equals the area of Gerver's shape, hence that no moving sofa has larger area and that the supremum is attained.

Supporting targets

∃! (A,B,φ,θ), ABphiThetaSpec(A,B,φ,θ).\exists!\,(A,B,\varphi,\theta),\ \mathrm{ABphiThetaSpec}(A,B,\varphi,\theta).∃!(A,B,φ,θ), ABphiThetaSpec(A,B,φ,θ). ∀ A,B,φ,θ, ABphiThetaSpec(A,B,φ,θ)  ⟹  ∃ m, IsMovingSofa(gerversSofaWith(A,B,φ,θ),m).\forall\,A,B,\varphi,\theta,\ \mathrm{ABphiThetaSpec}(A,B,\varphi,\theta)\implies \exists\,m,\ \mathrm{IsMovingSofa}(\mathrm{gerversSofaWith}(A,B,\varphi,\theta),m).∀A,B,φ,θ, ABphiThetaSpec(A,B,φ,θ)⟹∃m, IsMovingSofa(gerversSofaWith(A,B,φ,θ),m).

The first is Gerver's Theorem 2 in Romik's equation form on the closed domain. The second says every such shape admits a hallway motion. Together they supply the constants and the witness that the supremum is attained. The live mission records a root sketch composing the upper-bound half (every moving sofa is bounded by Gerver's area) with the movability witness into the supremum equality.

Significance

The result itself closes a problem open since 1966. It identifies the maximum area, shows the maximum is attained by an explicit shape, and determines that shape from four equations whose solution is unique. Consequences include the numerical enclosure 11/5≤volume≤∞11/5\le\mathrm{volume}\le\infty11/5≤volume≤∞ proved by interval arithmetic, the finiteness of the supremum, and the reduction of future improvements to the analysis of the functional QQQ on caps. Without it the exact maximum remains unknown.

Formalizing it adds a machine-checked proof that makes no classical area assumption: the Green-type curve-area identity and the Minkowski-type mixed-area facts quoted by the paper are proved, the paper's 11 proof gaps and 33 misprints are repaired, and the numerical certificate is kernel-checked. The hallway, motion, cap, convex-body, and surface-measure infrastructure is reusable for related isoperimetric and kinematic formalizations. Status honesty: the underlying paper proof is complete and has been formalized in the source repository; on this platform the three statements above are open targets awaiting proofs, and the uniqueness of the maximizer up to rigid motion remains open and is not part of this mission.

Difficulty

The obvious argument bounds the area of an arbitrary sofa by the area of a circumscribed cap, but caps need not satisfy the injectivity condition that makes the functional QQQ an upper bound, and QQQ need not be concave on the full space of caps. Maximizing sequences of polygons need not converge to a sofa, and limits need not be connected or attain the supremum. The naive idea of taking a supremum over all connected closed sets and extracting a convergent subsequence fails until compactness of motions, closedness of the moving-sofa predicate, and a balanced maximum with rotation angle π/2\pi/2π/2 are established. Each step fails for general sets and only holds after the polygon approximation and monotonization constructions.

Formalization scope

Lean represents the plane as EuclideanSpace ℝ (Fin 2) with its standard orientation, hallway sides as explicit sets, motions as I → E(2) where E(2) is ℝ² ≃ᵃⁱ[ℝ] ℝ² with the topology induced from continuous maps, and area as MeasureSpace.volume. The supremum is in ℝ≥0∞. Statements target the c5ea003 (Lean v4.30.0) environment, an older supported revision against which the development was verified locally. The spec uses non-strict inequalities, which makes uniqueness stronger than the strict-inequality literature form. The functions rrr, xxx, yyy, ppp take the constants as explicit arguments rather than reading global chosen constants, so the definition bundle stays independent of the existence proof; given uniqueness this implies the source statements. Boundedness and measurability are not assumed; every moving sofa is proved compact in the source development. A submission that drops closedness or connectedness, that allows a discontinuous motion, or that hard-codes the numerical value 2.21952.21952.2195 instead of proving equality with the volume of the defined shape, does not satisfy the statements. Contributions welcome: direct proofs of the three targets, sharper enclosures of the volume, and reusable hallway and motion lemmas. Out of scope: uniqueness up to congruence, the 11/511/511/5 certificate details beyond the stated lower bound, and the 20 unformalized numbered environments listed in the source NOTES.md that none of the three targets depends on.

Selected references

  • Jineon Baek, Optimality of Gerver's Sofa, arXiv:2411.19826, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2411.19826
  • Joseph L. Gerver, On moving a sofa around a corner, Geometriae Dedicata 42 (1992), 267-283.
  • Dan Romik, Differential equations and exact solutions in the moving sofa problem, Experimental Mathematics 27 (2018), 316-330. https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.08111
  • Dean Cureton et al., MovingSofa: Autoformalization of Baek's solution, 2026. https://github.com/deancureton/MovingSofa
  • Google DeepMind, formal-conjectures, FormalConjectures/Wikipedia/MovingSofa.lean at ddfbaf90. https://github.com/google-deepmind/formal-conjectures
  • Dawid Trela, GerverSofaLean v1.1.0. https://github.com/dawidmtrela-dotcom/GerverSofaLean
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Theoretical Computer Science·Captain: Goku

QMA Strong Error Reduction with No Witness-Length IncreaseResearch Paper

Motivation

A QMA verifier receives a quantum witness and checks it with a circuit generated efficiently from the input. An acceptance probability separated by an inverse-polynomial gap is enough to define the class, but applications often need the probability of a wrong answer to be exponentially small. Repeating the verifier on many supplied witness registers achieves this error reduction while allowing the witness to grow. Marriott and Watrous proved the stronger statement that the same error reduction can be obtained without increasing the number of witness qubits Quantum Arthur–Merlin Games, Section 3.

The existing Lean development verifies the copy-based theorem, including soundness for witnesses entangled across the copies, and constructs a uniform circuit family with polynomial resources. This mission asks for the separate witness-preserving theorem. The paper already proves that mathematical statement; the open work here is its formalization in the stated QMA circuit model.

Setting

At each input length nnn, a verifier has m(n)m(n)m(n) witness qubits, a finite work register, a designated output wire, and a quantum circuit. A uniformly generated family has a polynomial-time classical procedure that emits the complete circuit description, including the witness and work-register sizes. On yes-instances, some normalized witness makes the verifier accept with probability at least a(n)a(n)a(n). On no-instances, every normalized witness is accepted with probability at most b(n)b(n)b(n). The thresholds satisfy 0≤b(n)≤a(n)≤10\le b(n)\le a(n)\le10≤b(n)≤a(n)≤1 and a(n)−b(n)≥1/q(n)a(n)-b(n)\ge1/q(n)a(n)−b(n)≥1/q(n) for a polynomial qqq.

The existing formalization represents witnesses as complex amplitude functions on bit strings, requires normalization explicitly, and uses layered circuits over its specified finite gate set. It also represents efficiently available real thresholds by polynomial-time procedures that output dyadic approximations. These are part of the formal statement's interface and must be made visible to users of the mission.

Target

For every polynomial error exponent rrr and every source verifier satisfying the conditions above, construct a uniformly generated, well-formed, polynomial-resource verifier for the same language, with completeness at least 1−2−r(n)1-2^{-r(n)}1−2−r(n) and soundness at most 2−r(n)2^{-r(n)}2−r(n), while keeping the witness count exactly m(n)m(n)m(n) at every input length:

mnew(n)=mold(n).m_{\mathrm{new}}(n)=m_{\mathrm{old}}(n).mnew​(n)=mold​(n).

This is the witness-preserving strong error-reduction result of Marriott and Watrous (Theorem 4). The existing copy-based result corresponds to the weaker QMA class inclusion in Theorem 3 and will be linked as a proved background result. The mission goal must state the witness-count equation explicitly so that a copy-based amplifier cannot satisfy it.

Significance

Witness-preserving amplification lets a QMA protocol demand much stronger reliability without asking the prover for a longer message. That matters whenever witness size is itself a resource being compared or bounded. The copy-based theorem shows that the QMA class is robust under error reduction, but does not establish this fixed-message guarantee.

Formalizing the stronger result would add a reusable account of a verifier that reuses one witness, proves soundness for every normalized input state, and compiles its behavior into an ordinary uniform circuit family. Those components can support later formalizations that reason about repeated quantum verification under a fixed witness budget.

Difficulty

The completed copy-based proof uses three independent verifier blocks in each amplification round and bounds arbitrary entangled witnesses across those blocks. Its circuit resource analysis therefore allows the witness count to grow. A witness-preserving argument cannot use that construction. It must analyze repeated verification on one register and establish exponentially small error without assuming the input witness has a special spectral form. The formal circuit model currently exposes final-output measurements; any additional measurement behavior used in the analysis must be justified in that model and shown implementable by a finite, uniformly generated circuit.

The central audit point is the exact witness-length equation. A theorem that merely returns another polynomial-size witness, or that changes the source verifier's witness definition, is a useful class-level result but does not prove this mission's target.

Formalization scope

The goal is parameterized by input-length-dependent completeness and soundness thresholds with an inverse-polynomial gap, and by a polynomial target exponent. Every witness quantifier is over normalized states. The output verifier must satisfy the same well-formedness and polynomial-resource conditions as the completed copy-based development. The platform statement uses its existing ShiClassQMAU.UniformQMA circuit-family encoding, which includes the witness and ancilla counts separately. A final proof should be kernel checked with only Lean's standard logical axioms and should not assume an amplification transducer or an unproved measurement lemma.

The paper quantifies over the class poly of unary-time constructible functions. This proposal represents the gap denominator and target exponent as literal Polynomial ℕ values, matching the checked copy-based development. It therefore formalizes a polynomial-parameter instance of Theorem 4 rather than the paper's full function-class generality. The threshold functions are supplied by polynomial-time dyadic approximators in place of the paper's informal efficient-computation convention. These interface choices are explicit in the Lean goal and should not be read as a proof of the broader formulation.

The local copy-based proof is complete and audited, but it has not yet been transplanted to Prove2Me. Its publication is preparatory work for this mission, not evidence that the witness-preserving goal is already solved. The proposal should reference the published copy-based endpoint and include only a few substantial milestones, so each item is meaningful to audit.

Selected references

  • C. Marriott and J. Watrous, Quantum Arthur–Merlin Games, Computational Complexity 14 (2005), Section 3, Theorems 3 and 4. Paper.
  • A. Kitaev, A. Shen, and M. Vyalyi, Classical and Quantum Computation, Graduate Studies in Mathematics 47, American Mathematical Society (2002), Section 14.2, cited by Marriott and Watrous for the copy-based amplification proof.
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Number Theory·Captain: Lucas

Brocard's Conjecture: Four Primes Between Consecutive Prime SquaresOpen Problem

Motivation

For n≥1n \ge 1n≥1 let pnp_npn​ denote the nnn-th prime. Brocard's conjecture, named after Henri Brocard, asserts that for every n≥2n \ge 2n≥2 there are at least four primes strictly between pn2p_n^2pn2​ and pn+12p_{n+1}^2pn+12​ (Wikipedia). It belongs to the family of "primes between consecutive squares" problems together with Legendre's conjecture, and it is a concrete, elementary-looking question about short-interval prime distribution that remains open.

Timeline

  • Early 20th century — Brocard states the conjecture.
  • 2023 — L. A. Ferreira (arXiv:2307.08725) proves that the conjecture holds for all sufficiently large nnn.

Setting

Primes are listed in increasing order. In the Lean development the list is 0-indexed: Nat.nth Nat.Prime k is the kkk-th prime counting from 000, so nth 0 = 2, nth 1 = 3, nth 2 = 5, and so on. For an index nnn write prev=\mathrm{prev} = prev= n.nth Nat.Prime and next=\mathrm{next} = next= (n+1).nth Nat.Prime, two consecutive primes. The quantity of interest is

#{ q prime:prev2<q<next2 }.\#\{\, q \text{ prime} : \mathrm{prev}^2 < q < \mathrm{next}^2 \,\}.#{q prime:prev2<q<next2}.

Target

Milestone (Ferreira): for all sufficiently large indices nnn,

4≤#{ q prime:prev2<q<next2 }.4 \le \#\{\, q \text{ prime} : \mathrm{prev}^2 < q < \mathrm{next}^2 \,\}.4≤#{q prime:prev2<q<next2}.

Goal (Brocard's conjecture): the same inequality for every 0-indexed n≥1n \ge 1n≥1, i.e. for every pair of consecutive primes starting from (3,5)(3,5)(3,5).

Significance

A proof of the goal settles Brocard's conjecture outright. Given Ferreira's asymptotic result, the remaining work splits into making the threshold effective and closing the finite range below it, both of which would be new formal content; the milestone itself (formalizing Ferreira's analytic argument) is a substantial analytic-number-theory formalization project.

Difficulty

Unconditional results on primes in short intervals [x,x+xθ][x, x + x^{\theta}][x,x+xθ] only reach exponents θ\thetaθ well above 1/21/21/2, while the interval (pn2,pn+12)(p_n^2, p_{n+1}^2)(pn2​,pn+12​) has length about 2pngn2 p_n g_n2pn​gn​ where gn=pn+1−png_n = p_{n+1} - p_ngn​=pn+1​−pn​ can be small (e.g. twin primes), i.e. length on the order of the square root of its endpoint. Standard short-interval theorems therefore do not apply uniformly, and Legendre's conjecture — which would only give two primes here — is itself open.

Formalization scope

Everything is stated with Mathlib's Nat.nth Nat.Prime, Finset.Ioo (open interval, endpoints excluded) and Finset.filter Nat.Prime, followed by Finset.card. The hypothesis 1 ≤ n in the goal is the 0-indexed form of the source's "n≥2n \ge 2n≥2"; it is necessary, since for index 000 (primes 2,32, 32,3) the interval (4,9)(4, 9)(4,9) contains only the two primes 5,75, 75,7. The milestone uses Filter.atTop ("for all sufficiently large nnn"), with no explicit threshold. No custom definitions are required.

Selected references

  • Brocard's conjecture, Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brocard%27s_conjecture
  • L. A. Ferreira, Real exponential sums over primes and prime gaps, arXiv:2307.08725 (2023). https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.08725
  • Statement adapted from the Formal Conjectures project (Apache-2.0), file BrocardConjecture.lean.
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