Wait-and-Judge Scenario Optimization 2: Over Generic Sets, P^N{V(x_N) > ε(s_N)} ≤ γ*, the Least ξ(1) over Degree-N Polynomials Feasible for (31)Research Paper
Motivation
A solution of a scenario optimization program is chosen after observing finitely many uncertain constraints. Its future reliability depends on constraints that were not sampled. The usual advance question asks how many samples are needed to make every output reliable. Campi and Garatti instead ask what can be certified after solving the program, when the number of sampled constraints that actually determined its solution is visible. Their wait-and-judge result uses that observed number to set a violation threshold. This mission concerns their extension from convex programs in finite-dimensional spaces to programs over an arbitrary decision set, with no convexity requirement.
The generic extension matters when a dimension bound on the number of influential constraints is unavailable. A decision may be a combinatorial object, a function, or an element of an infinite-dimensional space. The paper allows the support count to range from zero to the full sample size , and its threshold includes the case of support constraints. The paper's Section 6 gives the model and its two probability guarantees.
Setting
Let be a set of decisions. A subset is the domain; a real function is the cost. An uncertain outcome belongs to a measurable space with probability measure , and imposes a constraint set . For a sample of independent outcomes, the program minimizes over that belongs to every sampled . The sample law is . There is no algebraic or topological condition on the feasible sets or on .
A fixed finite sequence of real tie-break functions is minimized lexicographically after the original cost. This selects one solution whenever the program has a selected minimizer. Assumption 1 requires existence and uniqueness for every finite sample, including the empty one. A sampled constraint is a support constraint if removing it changes this selected solution. The number of support constraints is . Assumption 2 says that, with probability one, keeping only the support constraints gives the same selected solution. Both assumptions are part of the source's generic setting; they are substantive restrictions even though the sets and cost are otherwise arbitrary.
The violation of a decision is . Thus is the probability that a fresh constraint rejects the computed solution. Since the solution and support count depend on the sample, the wait-and-judge event uses a threshold function evaluated at the observed count, . For each , the paper also uses a generalized distribution function . It need not have total mass one.
Formalization targets
Variational bound, Theorem 3
For any and any -valued on , let be the infimum of feasible values over real polynomials of degree at most satisfying
The goal is the paper's Theorem 3:
The polynomial value retains the full dependence on the chosen threshold function. The source prints an extraneous in Theorem 3's range for ; its generic setting and variational problem use .
Explicit confidence bound, Theorem 4
For , the paper's Theorem 4 defines as the unique root of
With for and , its conclusion is
The terminal value is essential because the paper gives examples with and .
Significance
Theorem 3 makes the observed support count a usable statistic for assessing the solution's future constraint violation without a dimension bound. Theorem 4 turns it into a certificate at any chosen confidence parameter . The confidence threshold depends on the count seen after the program is solved. These statements do not claim that every generic program satisfies Assumptions 1–2; they say what follows for programs that do.
A formal development must make the statistical objects and the analytic value agree exactly: the solution must come from the feasible set and the fixed tie-break rule, the support count must record changes of solution, and must be the value of the derivative-constrained polynomial problem. The reusable outputs include the generic scenario model, its generalized violation distributions, and the finite moment and dual formulations. The statements are known results of Campi and Garatti; this mission asks for machine-checked proofs of those results and their selected intermediate claims.
Difficulty
The observed support count is data-dependent. Conditioning on therefore cannot be treated as conditioning on a fixed subset of sample coordinates. Symmetry across possible support subsets must agree with the selected solution under removal of nonsupport constraints. Assumption 2 is what rules out a degenerate change of solution when only support constraints remain. In the generic setting the possible count grows with , so the distributional characterization has one measure for every and moment equations for every sample size. The resulting infinite family must still be related to the finite degree- polynomial value in (31). No convexity or finite-dimensional geometry is available to supply a fixed support bound.
Formalization scope
Lean represents the decision set by an arbitrary type , with a measurable structure only to state the paper's implicit measurability convention. Samples are functions Fin N → Δ with zero-based indices and product law Measure.pi. The published generic violation definition is reused. The domain, constraint family, cost, finite lexicographic tie-break, selected solution, support set, and are defined locally. A Nonempty S instance provides an unused fallback value to the total solution selector; Assumption 1 already implies that is nonempty.
The source takes measurability for granted in a footnote. Here the constraint relation is jointly measurable, every solution map is measurable, and each support event is measurable. These pins assign probabilities to the events the paper uses. The are finite measures on , so the paper's Stieltjes integrals are represented as integrals over or against those measures. The polynomial class means degree at most , matching the coefficients in (36). The value is a real infimum; a separate sanity proof gives a feasible polynomial and a zero lower bound on all feasible values.
The goal retains Assumptions 1–2 and states the actual tail bound. It does not assume the moment equations or a favorable value of , and no support count is fixed in advance. Contributions toward the distributional decomposition, the moment equations, the finite weak-duality inequality, the polynomial identity, and the explicit-root theorem are within scope.
Selected references
- M. C. Campi and S. Garatti, Wait-and-judge scenario optimization, Mathematical Programming, 2018. DOI: 10.1007/s10107-016-1056-9. The mission uses the authors' accepted manuscript, especially Sections 6–7 and Theorems 3–4.