Robust Mean-Covariance Solutions for Stochastic Optimization III: Concave Utilities with a Monotone Second Derivative Have a Closed-Form Robust ObjectiveResearch Paper
Motivation
A decision maker who chooses a portfolio of risky assets with random return vector receives the scalar return and evaluates it by an expected utility . In practice the law of is not known; what can be estimated with some confidence are its mean and covariance . The robust mean-covariance objective replaces the unknown law by the worst law consistent with these two moments:
Ioana Popescu (Operations Research 55(1), 2007) showed that depends on only through and , and that for large classes of utilities it has a closed form or reduces to a one-dimensional search. This turns a robust stochastic program into a parametric mean-variance program, which is the practical point of the paper. This mission formalizes the closed form for concave utilities with a monotone second derivative (Proposition 7), a class that contains the exponential utility and all concave quadratics. The reduction to is the subject of the companion mission Robust Mean-Covariance Solutions for Stochastic Optimization I; the two-point case is mission II.
The underlying univariate question is a moment problem in the tradition of Chebyshev-type bounds: the extremal value of over all laws with prescribed mean and variance. Scarf (1958) solved an instance for a piecewise-linear inventory cost, and Birge and Dulá (1991) treated two-point extremal laws on bounded domains.
Setting
Fix and . The mean-variance class is the set of Borel probability measures on with , and (Lean: MeanVarClass m (s ^ 2)). For a utility the robust objective is
with read, as in the paper, "in the wide sense of ", so the value is allowed. The paper's is .
For the two-point law puts mass on and mass on ; these are exactly the two-point laws of . Its expected utility is the two-point objective (8),
A supporting quadratic of is with on ; the set of their coefficients is . Since every has , each element of gives a lower bound on (Proposition 3). The function has the one-point support property with respect to (Definition 3, OnePointSupportWrt u m s) if some supporting quadratic touches at and as or as ; it has one-point support (OnePointSupport u) if this holds for every and every .
Formalization targets
Goal: Proposition 7
Let be concave and twice differentiable with monotone .
(a) If is convex, then
(b) If is concave, the same holds with .
In each part the limit of exists in . When is finite the goal asserts that is integrable under every law of every class, that is the greatest lower bound of the expected utilities, and that has one-point support. When and it asserts .
Milestones
- Display (9): .
- For convex and , is nonincreasing on .
- Appendix (4): , including the value .
- Proposition 3: every dominates every with .
- The function is nondecreasing on when is convex.
- Appendix (5): supports , and .
An additional item states Proposition 8: a monotone convex has one-point support and .
Significance
Proposition 7 turns the worst-case expected utility into a mean-variance criterion with an explicit risk weight: a prudent investor ( convex) is penalized by per unit of variance, an imprudent one by the limit at . With Proposition 1, the robust portfolio problem becomes , a concave mean-variance program. For exponential utility the weight is (Example 3 of the paper), so the robust investor must eliminate variance entirely; this is a qualitative statement about robustness that follows only from the case of the theorem.
The result is published with a proof in the appendix of the paper. It has, to the best of our search, no machine-checked version, and the platform currently holds no statement of Propositions 3, 7 or 8 or Definition 3. A formal proof would also check two points where the printed argument is incomplete: the proof's step "" fails for affine , where the theorem nevertheless holds, and the claim that "has one-point support" fails when (see the scope section). Related platform work on worst-case expectations over ambiguity sets is the mission Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization II, which uses a different ambiguity set.
Difficulty
The infimum ranges over all laws with two prescribed moments, an infinite-dimensional set with no compactness, and in the relevant cases it is not attained. The natural first idea, restricting to two-point laws and minimizing over , gives only an upper bound (display (7)), and here the minimizing runs off to the boundary: the extremal law puts vanishing mass on a point escaping to . Identifying the limiting value requires controlling as , a second-order asymptotic statement about at . The matching lower bound requires a supporting quadratic whose curvature is exactly ; showing that it lies below everywhere, not only near , is a global statement that uses the convexity of on the whole line. The finite-limit and infinite-limit cases also behave differently: in the second, no supporting quadratic exists at all.
Formalization scope
Laws are Measure ℝ with IsProbabilityMeasure, finite second moment is MemLp id 2, and the class is parameterized by mean and variance with . The statements are univariate: of the paper is the univariate objective at by Proposition 1 of the paper (mission I). Derivatives are deriv u and deriv (deriv u); "twice differentiable" is differentiability of and of . Limits of are explicit hypotheses (Tendsto … atBot (𝓝 L) or Tendsto … atBot atBot), never limUnder. Limits in are one-sided inside . Expectations under two-point laws are written by the explicit formula (8).
"Min" is never a real ⨅, which Lean evaluates to on sets unbounded below. The finite case uses IsGLB together with integrability of under every law of the class; the infinite case asserts that integrable laws with arbitrarily small expected utility exist; Proposition 3 is stated as "every value every value". Proposition 3 assumes integrable under the law; Proposition 8 takes the infimum over laws under which is integrable, which for convex loses nothing.
One correction to the printed statement: Proposition 7 opens with "then has one-point support", which is false when , since no quadratic lies below on . The formalization asserts one-point support only in the finite-limit case and the value in the other. A formalization that took as a real infimum, dropped the integrability conjunct, or asserted one-point support unconditionally would be either trivially satisfiable or false; none of these is used.
A complete development needs: moments of two-point laws, a second-order l'Hôpital or Taylor argument at , the trapezoid inequality for convex functions, and Jensen-type integration of quadratic lower bounds. The mean-variance class, the two-point objective and the supporting-quadratic lemmas are reusable for mission II and for other moment-problem bounds. Proofs of any milestone, and of part (b), are welcome.
Selected references
- I. Popescu, Robust Mean-Covariance Solutions for Stochastic Optimization, Operations Research 55(1):98–112, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1060.0353
- H. Scarf, A min-max solution of an inventory problem, in Studies in the Mathematical Theory of Inventory and Production, Stanford University Press, 1958.
- J. R. Birge, J. H. Dulá, Bounding separable recourse functions with limited distribution information, Annals of Operations Research 30, 1991.
- S. Karlin, W. J. Studden, Tchebycheff Systems: With Applications in Analysis and Statistics, Interscience, 1966.