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Algorithmic Game Theory

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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders III: A Greedy Price-Update Algorithm Is a 2-Approximation for XOS BiddersResearch Paper

Motivation

In a combinatorial auction a set of mmm items is sold to nnn bidders who value bundles of items rather than single items. Spectrum auctions, procurement of transportation lanes and the allocation of cloud resources all have this form, and the central algorithmic question is how to allocate the items so as to maximize the social welfare, the sum of the bidders' values for what they receive. Even to describe a general valuation takes 2m2^m2m numbers, so algorithms access the bidders through queries, and the achievable approximation depends on the class of valuations allowed.

Dobzinski, Nisan and Schapira (Math. Oper. Res. 35(1), 2010) study bidders without complementarities. For the class of XOS valuations, maxima of additive valuations, which strictly contains the submodular valuations, they give LP-based algorithms and, in §3.3, a purely combinatorial algorithm: bidders arrive one at a time, take their demanded bundle at the current item prices, and raise the prices of what they took. Its analysis charges the welfare of any allocation to the item prices the algorithm sets, an argument that uses only the demand and XOS oracles.

Setting

The items are M={1,…,m}M=\{1,\dots,m\}M={1,…,m} and the bidders 1,…,n1,\dots,n1,…,n.

  • An additive valuation (a clause) www assigns nonnegative values w(1),…,w(m)w(1),\dots,w(m)w(1),…,w(m) to the items and w(S)=∑j∈Sw(j)w(S)=\sum_{j\in S}w(j)w(S)=∑j∈S​w(j) to a bundle S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M.
  • An XOS valuation vvv is given by a nonempty finite set of clauses {w1,…,wt}\{w_1,\dots,w_t\}{w1​,…,wt​} (its XOS expression) through v(S)=max⁡kwk(S)v(S)=\max_k w_k(S)v(S)=maxk​wk​(S). A clause wkw_kwk​ with wk(S)=v(S)w_k(S)=v(S)wk​(S)=v(S) is a maximizing clause for SSS. Every XOS valuation is normalized, v(∅)=0v(\emptyset)=0v(∅)=0, and monotone.
  • An allocation is a tuple of pairwise disjoint bundles O1,…,OnO_1,\dots,O_nO1​,…,On​; items may stay unallocated. Its welfare is ∑ivi(Oi)\sum_i v_i(O_i)∑i​vi​(Oi​).
  • A demand oracle for bidder iii answers, given item prices p∈Rmp\in\mathbb R^mp∈Rm, a bundle maximizing vi(T)−∑j∈Tpjv_i(T)-\sum_{j\in T}p_jvi​(T)−∑j∈T​pj​. An XOS oracle answers, given a bundle SSS, a maximizing clause for SSS in viv_ivi​.

The greedy price-update algorithm. Start with all bundles empty and all prices pj=0p_j=0pj​=0. For i=1,…,ni=1,\dots,ni=1,…,n: let SiS_iSi​ be bidder iii's demand at the current prices; remove the items of SiS_iSi​ from the bundles of the earlier bidders; let qiq^iqi be the maximizing clause for SiS_iSi​ in viv_ivi​; set pj=qjip_j=q^i_jpj​=qji​ for j∈Sij\in S_ij∈Si​. Write pkp^kpk for the prices after stage kkk (p0=0p^0=0p0=0), pk(T)=∑j∈Tpjkp^k(T)=\sum_{j\in T}p^k_jpk(T)=∑j∈T​pjk​, and A1,…,AnA_1,\dots,A_nA1​,…,An​ for the final bundles.

In the Lean development these objects are XOSExpr, XOSExpr.val, IsAllocation, welfare, IsDemandOracle, IsXOSOracle, greedyState, greedyPrices and greedyAlloc in the namespace ComplementFreeCA.XOSGreedy.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.3

For XOS valuations v1,…,vnv_1,\dots,v_nv1​,…,vn​, every demand oracle and every XOS oracle, and every allocation O1,…,OnO_1,\dots,O_nO1​,…,On​,

∑i=1nvi(Oi)  ≤  2∑i=1nvi(Ai).\sum_{i=1}^n v_i(O_i)\;\le\;2\sum_{i=1}^n v_i(A_i).i=1∑n​vi​(Oi​)≤2i=1∑n​vi​(Ai​).

The comparison with every allocation is the paper's comparison with the optimal allocation.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.4. The final prices are paid for by the algorithm's welfare:
pn(M)≤∑ivi(Ai).p^n(M)\le\sum_i v_i(A_i).pn(M)≤i∑​vi​(Ai​).
  1. Lemma 3.5. Prices never decrease: pjk≤pjk′p^k_j\le p^{k'}_jpjk​≤pjk′​ for all items jjj and stages k≤k′k\le k'k≤k′.
  2. Lemma 3.6. For every allocation OOO,
∑ivi(Oi)≤2 pn(M).\sum_i v_i(O_i)\le 2\,p^n(M).i∑​vi​(Oi​)≤2pn(M).

Three further statements are included without being milestones: the output A1,…,AnA_1,\dots,A_nA1​,…,An​ is an allocation (used implicitly by the paper); the first sentence of the proof of Lemma 3.6, that with Δi=pi(M)−pi−1(M)\Delta^i=p^i(M)-p^{i-1}(M)Δi=pi(M)−pi−1(M) one has Δi=max⁡T⊆M(vi(T)−pi−1(T))\Delta^i=\max_{T\subseteq M}\bigl(v_i(T)-p^{i-1}(T)\bigr)Δi=maxT⊆M​(vi​(T)−pi−1(T)); and the factor 222 is attained on the paper's two-item, two-bidder example (p. 9).

Significance

Theorem 3.3 shows that a factor-2 approximation of the optimal welfare for XOS bidders needs no linear program: one pass over the bidders, one demand query and one XOS query each. The paper's LP-based algorithm of §3.2 attains the better ratio e/(e−1)e/(e-1)e/(e−1), and Theorem 4.1 of the paper shows that for the larger class of complement-free bidders no (2−ϵ)(2-\epsilon)(2−ϵ)-approximation is possible with polynomial communication.

The result is proved in the paper; to the best of our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a formal model of XOS valuations, demand and XOS oracles and the greedy run that is reusable for other price-based arguments, and a formal proof of the guarantee for every tie-breaking in both oracles.

Difficulty

The argument is elementary, but its bookkeeping is where a formal proof can go wrong. Items move between bidders: an item taken from an earlier bidder in step (b) is re-priced in step (d), and every priced item lies in exactly one final bundle. Lemma 3.4 needs this invariant across all nnn stages, together with the fact that a maximizing clause for the demanded set bounds viv_ivi​ on every subset, which holds because it is a clause of viv_ivi​ itself, not merely an additive function agreeing with viv_ivi​ on SiS_iSi​. Lemma 3.5 is a contradiction argument using optimality of the demand; Lemma 3.6 telescopes the price increases and needs prices to stay nonnegative. The argument must hold for arbitrary oracle answers, so no canonical demand can be assumed.

Formalization scope

  • Bidders are Fin n, items Fin m, bundles Finset (Fin m), values in ℝ. An XOS valuation is represented by its expression: a nonempty Finset (Fin m → ℝ) of clauses with nonnegative entries, evaluated with Finset.sup'. The paper's standing assumptions, normalized and monotone valuations (p. 1), hold automatically in this representation.
  • The oracles are function parameters dem : Fin n → (Fin m → ℝ) → Finset (Fin m) and cl : Fin n → Finset (Fin m) → (Fin m → ℝ) with hypotheses IsDemandOracle and IsXOSOracle; every theorem holds for every such pair, so no tie-breaking rule is fixed.
  • The run is a recursion on the stage: stage k+1k+1k+1 processes the 0-based bidder kkk, i.e. the paper's bidder k+1k+1k+1; after stage nnn the state is constant.
  • The paper's goal compares with the optimal allocation; the Lean goal compares with every allocation, which is equivalent and avoids an argmax. Stating the bound against one particular allocation, or against the algorithm's own output, would be trivial and is excluded.
  • There are no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) constants: the factor 222 is the paper's.
  • Printed slip: the model on p. 1 writes an allocation as S1,…,SmS_1,\dots,S_mS1​,…,Sm​; it is one bundle per bidder, S1,…,SnS_1,\dots,S_nS1​,…,Sn​.
  • Out of scope: running time, the cost of simulating oracles (Proposition 2.1), and communication lower bounds.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the three milestones and of the goal, and reusable lemmas on the invariant that every priced item lies in exactly one final bundle.

Selected references

  • S. Dobzinski, N. Nisan, M. Schapira, Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(1):1–13, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0436
  • B. Lehmann, D. Lehmann, N. Nisan, Combinatorial auctions with decreasing marginal utilities, Games and Economic Behavior 55(2):270–296, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2005.02.006
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders II: Clause-Based Randomized Rounding for XOS BiddersResearch Paper

Motivation

In a combinatorial auction a seller offers mmm indivisible items to nnn bidders, each of whom values bundles of items rather than single items. Allocating the items so as to maximize the total value (the social welfare) is the central optimization problem of the area: it models spectrum auctions, procurement and resource allocation, and it is NP-hard and hard to approximate for general valuations. A large literature therefore studies restricted classes of valuations without complementarities. Among them the class XOS (valuations that are a maximum of additive valuations, also called fractionally subadditive) sits strictly between submodular and subadditive valuations and has become a standard benchmark class in algorithmic game theory.

Dobzinski, Nisan and Schapira (Math. Oper. Res. 35(1), 2010) gave, among other results, a randomized algorithm that approximates the optimal welfare for XOS bidders within a factor 1/(1−(1−1/n)n)1/(1-(1-1/n)^n)1/(1−(1−1/n)n), which is at most e/(e−1)≈1.582e/(e-1)\approx 1.582e/(e−1)≈1.582. The algorithm rounds the standard LP relaxation and resolves conflicts between bidders using the XOS structure. This mission formalizes that guarantee (Theorem 3.2 of the paper).

A short timeline: Lehmann, Lehmann and Nisan (EC 2001) introduced the XOS terminology and a 2-approximation for submodular bidders; the conference version of the present paper (STOC 2005) gave the e/(e−1)e/(e-1)e/(e−1) bound for XOS with demand and XOS oracles; Feige (STOC 2006) extended the e/(e−1)e/(e-1)e/(e−1) ratio to XOS bidders with demand oracles only and gave a 2-approximation for subadditive bidders.

Setting

Items are M={1,…,m}M=\{1,\dots,m\}M={1,…,m} and bidders are N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} with n≥1n\ge1n≥1. Bidder iii has a valuation viv_ivi​ assigning a real number vi(S)v_i(S)vi​(S) to every bundle S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M. An allocation is a tuple (O1,…,On)(O_1,\dots,O_n)(O1​,…,On​) of pairwise disjoint bundles; its welfare is ∑ivi(Oi)\sum_i v_i(O_i)∑i​vi​(Oi​).

A clause is an additive valuation www given by nonnegative item values w1,…,wmw_1,\dots,w_mw1​,…,wm​, with w(S)=∑j∈Swjw(S)=\sum_{j\in S}w_jw(S)=∑j∈S​wj​. A valuation vvv is XOS if there is a nonempty finite set WWW of clauses with

v(S)=max⁡w∈W ∑j∈Swj(S⊆M).v(S)=\max_{w\in W}\ \sum_{j\in S}w_j\qquad(S\subseteq M).v(S)=w∈Wmax​ j∈S∑​wj​(S⊆M).

A clause of WWW attaining the maximum for SSS is a maximizing clause for SSS in vvv; an XOS oracle returns one (arbitrarily, if several attain it).

The LP relaxation has a variable xi,Sx_{i,S}xi,S​ for every bidder iii and bundle SSS and asks to maximize OPT∗=∑i,Sxi,Svi(S)\mathrm{OPT}^*=\sum_{i,S}x_{i,S}v_i(S)OPT∗=∑i,S​xi,S​vi​(S) subject to ∑i∑S∋jxi,S≤1\sum_{i}\sum_{S\ni j}x_{i,S}\le1∑i​∑S∋j​xi,S​≤1 for each item jjj, ∑Sxi,S≤1\sum_S x_{i,S}\le1∑S​xi,S​≤1 for each bidder iii, and xi,S≥0x_{i,S}\ge0xi,S​≥0.

Randomized rounding draws a preallocation S1,…,SnS_1,\dots,S_nS1​,…,Sn​: independently for each bidder iii, bundle SSS is chosen with probability xi,Sx_{i,S}xi,S​ and the empty bundle with the remaining probability 1−∑Sxi,S1-\sum_S x_{i,S}1−∑S​xi,S​. The preallocation can give an item to several bidders.

The algorithm of §3.2: (i) draw a preallocation from an optimal LP solution xxx; (ii) let pi=(p1i,…,pmi)p^i=(p^i_1,\dots,p^i_m)pi=(p1i​,…,pmi​) be the maximizing clause for SiS_iSi​ in viv_ivi​; (iii) give each item jjj to a bidder iii with pji≥pji′p^i_j\ge p^{i'}_jpji​≥pji′​ for all i′i'i′. Write ALG\mathrm{ALG}ALG for the welfare of the resulting allocation.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.2

For every XOS profile, every optimal LP solution xxx, every choice of maximizing clauses, every tie-breaking in step (iii) and every allocation OOO,

(1−(1−1n)n)∑ivi(Oi) ≤ E[ALG].\Big(1-\Big(1-\frac1n\Big)^n\Big)\sum_i v_i(O_i)\ \le\ \mathbb E[\mathrm{ALG}].(1−(1−n1​)n)i∑​vi​(Oi​) ≤ E[ALG].

Milestones

  1. ∑ivi(Oi)≤OPT∗\sum_i v_i(O_i)\le\mathrm{OPT}^*∑i​vi​(Oi​)≤OPT∗ for an optimal LP solution (step (i) of the proof of Theorem 3.1).
  2. Pointwise, ALG≥∑jQj\mathrm{ALG}\ge\sum_j Q_jALG≥∑j​Qj​ with Qj=max⁡ipjiQ_j=\max_i p^i_jQj​=maxi​pji​.
  3. Eq. (1): for 1≤k≤n1\le k\le n1≤k≤n and X1,…,Xk∈[0,1]X_1,\dots,X_k\in[0,1]X1​,…,Xk​∈[0,1] with ∑Xi≤1\sum X_i\le1∑Xi​≤1,
1−∏i≤k(1−Xi) ≥ 1−(1−∑Xik)k ≥ (1−(1−1k)k)∑Xi ≥ (1−(1−1n)n)∑Xi.1-\prod_{i\le k}(1-X_i)\ \ge\ 1-\Big(1-\tfrac{\sum X_i}{k}\Big)^k\ \ge\ \Big(1-\big(1-\tfrac1k\big)^k\Big)\sum X_i\ \ge\ \Big(1-\big(1-\tfrac1n\big)^n\Big)\sum X_i .1−i≤k∏​(1−Xi​) ≥ 1−(1−k∑Xi​​)k ≥ (1−(1−k1​)k)∑Xi​ ≥ (1−(1−n1​)n)∑Xi​.
  1. Lemma 3.3: E[Qj]≥(1−(1−1/n)n)∑i∑S∋jxi,S pj(i,S)\mathbb E[Q_j]\ge(1-(1-1/n)^n)\sum_i\sum_{S\ni j}x_{i,S}\,p^{(i,S)}_jE[Qj​]≥(1−(1−1/n)n)∑i​∑S∋j​xi,S​pj(i,S)​ for every feasible xxx.
  2. E[ALG]≥(1−(1−1/n)n) OPT∗(x)\mathbb E[\mathrm{ALG}]\ge(1-(1-1/n)^n)\,\mathrm{OPT}^*(x)E[ALG]≥(1−(1−1/n)n)OPT∗(x) for every feasible xxx.

Milestone 5 is stronger than the goal (it compares with the fractional value); the goal is stated against the integral optimum because that is what Theorem 3.2 asserts.

Significance

The bound 1−(1−1/n)n≥1−1/e1-(1-1/n)^n\ge1-1/e1−(1−1/n)n≥1−1/e is a constant-factor guarantee for a class that includes every submodular valuation, obtained from nothing more than the LP relaxation and the clause structure of XOS. It shows that the integrality gap of the configuration LP for XOS bidders is at most 1/(1−(1−1/n)n)1/(1-(1-1/n)^n)1/(1−(1−1/n)n), a fact reused in later work on welfare maximization, online allocation and posted-price mechanisms. The per-item analysis (Lemma 3.3 and Eq. (1)) is the same "1−1/e1-1/e1−1/e" correlation-gap argument that recurs in submodular maximization and prophet-inequality proofs.

The result is proved in the paper. To our knowledge it has no machine-checked proof. This mission produces a Lean statement and proof of the guarantee with the randomness made explicit, a reusable model of the configuration LP and of randomized rounding over bundles, and a formal version of the inequality in Eq. (1), which is independently useful.

Difficulty

Each piece of the argument is short; the work is in the bookkeeping. The preallocation is infeasible, so welfare cannot be read off from the rounding directly; the proof reduces it to per-item quantities QjQ_jQj​ and then lower-bounds E[Qj]\mathbb E[Q_j]E[Qj​] by comparing with a different assignment of item jjj that is not the algorithm's. The expectation of that auxiliary assignment involves a product of probabilities over bidders ordered by a conditional expectation, and the final bound needs the calculus inequality of Eq. (1) together with a summation by parts. A naive attempt to bound E[ALG]\mathbb E[\mathrm{ALG}]E[ALG] bidder by bidder fails, because a bidder's received bundle is not contained in its preallocated bundle, and the clause values of other bidders decide what it receives.

Formalization scope

  • Bidders are Fin n, items Fin m, bundles Finset (Fin m), valuations Finset (Fin m) → ℝ. XOS is stated through its expression: each viv_ivi​ comes with a nonempty finite clause set WiW_iWi​ of nonnegative clauses, and vi(S)v_i(S)vi​(S) is attained by a clause of WiW_iWi​ and bounded by all of them. Normalization and monotonicity, the paper's standing assumptions (p. 1), follow from this.
  • The LP has a variable for every bundle, including ∅\emptyset∅. "Optimal" is stated as feasible and not beaten by any feasible solution; existence of an optimum is not asserted.
  • The rounding is a finite product distribution over profiles σ:Fin n→\sigma:\mathrm{Fin}\,n\toσ:Finn→ bundles, with bidder iii's law qi(S)=xi,S+1[S=∅](1−∑Txi,T)q_i(S)=x_{i,S}+\mathbf 1[S=\emptyset](1-\sum_T x_{i,T})qi​(S)=xi,S​+1[S=∅](1−∑T​xi,T​); expectations are finite sums.
  • The XOS oracle is a function parameter with its specification, and step (iii) is any rule selecting a bidder with maximal clause value; every statement quantifies over all of them.
  • "Approximation" in Theorem 3.2 is read in expectation, as its proof establishes. There are no O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅) constants in this mission.
  • Printed slip: the display of Lemma 3.3 (and the identity for OPT∗\mathrm{OPT}^*OPT∗ before it) sums xi,Spj(i,S)x_{i,S}p^{(i,S)}_jxi,S​pj(i,S)​ over all (i,S)(i,S)(i,S); the proof's final line restricts to S∋jS\ni jS∋j, and the printed version is false. The Lean states Lemma 3.3 with S∋jS\ni jS∋j.
  • Running time, the ellipsoid method and oracle complexity are out of scope.
  • Ruled out as trivializing: dropping the LP constraints on xxx (the item constraint is what makes Eq. (1) apply), stating the bound for a fixed preallocation instead of the expectation, or allowing negative clause values.

A complete development needs finite product distributions over bundles, the AM–GM inequality, monotonicity of (1−1/k)k(1-1/k)^k(1−1/k)k, and a summation-by-parts argument. The LP and rounding model are reusable for the other randomized-rounding results of the paper; proofs of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • S. Dobzinski, N. Nisan, M. Schapira, Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(1):1–13, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0436
  • S. Dobzinski, N. Nisan, M. Schapira, Approximation algorithms for combinatorial auctions with complement-free bidders, STOC 2005. https://doi.org/10.1145/1060590.1060681
  • B. Lehmann, D. Lehmann, N. Nisan, Combinatorial auctions with decreasing marginal utilities, EC 2001. https://doi.org/10.1145/501158.501161
  • U. Feige, On maximizing welfare when utility functions are subadditive, STOC 2006. https://doi.org/10.1145/1132516.1132540
9 thms2 active usersReviewed
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders I: LP Rounding for Subadditive BiddersResearch Paper

Motivation

In a combinatorial auction a seller offers mmm indivisible items to nnn bidders, each of whom values bundles of items rather than single items. Allocating the items to maximize total value is the basic welfare problem of spectrum auctions, procurement and resource allocation, and it is the running example of algorithmic mechanism design. For general valuations no polynomial-time algorithm achieves a ratio polynomially better than m\sqrt mm​ under standard assumptions, so positive results require restricting the valuations. The most natural restriction is complement freeness (subadditivity): a bundle is never worth more than the sum of its parts.

Dobzinski, Nisan and Schapira (Math. Oper. Res. 35(1), 2010; conference version STOC 2005) gave the first polynomial-time algorithms with sub-polynomial approximation ratios for complement-free bidders given demand oracles. This mission formalizes their Section 3.1 algorithm, which rounds the linear-programming relaxation of the auction and splits the resulting infeasible solution into feasible ones.

Timeline. Lehmann, Lehmann and Nisan (2001) introduced the complement-free hierarchy and treated submodular bidders. The original version of the algorithm formalized here claimed an O(log⁡m)O(\log m)O(logm) ratio; Feige observed that the same algorithm achieves O(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)O(\log m/\log\log m)O(logm/loglogm) and that its ratio is at least Ω(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)\Omega(\sqrt{\log m/\log\log m})Ω(logm/loglogm​) (Feige, SIAM J. Comput. 39(1), 2009). Feige then obtained a constant ratio (222) for subadditive bidders by a different rounding.

Setting

Items are M={1,…,m}M=\{1,\dots,m\}M={1,…,m} and bidders N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. Bidder iii has a valuation viv_ivi​ assigning a real value vi(S)v_i(S)vi​(S) to each bundle S⊆MS\subseteq MS⊆M. Every valuation is normalized, vi(∅)=0v_i(\emptyset)=0vi​(∅)=0, and monotone, S⊆T⇒vi(S)≤vi(T)S\subseteq T\Rightarrow v_i(S)\le v_i(T)S⊆T⇒vi​(S)≤vi​(T). A valuation is complement free if v(S∪T)≤v(S)+v(T)v(S\cup T)\le v(S)+v(T)v(S∪T)≤v(S)+v(T) for all S,TS,TS,T. An allocation is a tuple (S1,…,Sn)(S_1,\dots,S_n)(S1​,…,Sn​) of pairwise disjoint bundles; its welfare is ∑ivi(Si)\sum_i v_i(S_i)∑i​vi​(Si​), and OPTOPTOPT denotes the largest welfare.

The LP relaxation has a variable xi,S≥0x_{i,S}\ge0xi,S​≥0 for each bidder and bundle, with ∑i,S∋jxi,S≤1\sum_{i,S\ni j}x_{i,S}\le1∑i,S∋j​xi,S​≤1 for each item jjj and ∑Sxi,S≤1\sum_S x_{i,S}\le1∑S​xi,S​≤1 for each bidder iii; its objective is ∑i,Sxi,Svi(S)\sum_{i,S}x_{i,S}v_i(S)∑i,S​xi,S​vi​(S), with optimum OPT∗≥OPTOPT^*\ge OPTOPT∗≥OPT. Randomized rounding lets each bidder independently draw bundle SSS with probability xi,Sx_{i,S}xi,S​ and ∅\emptyset∅ with the remaining probability. The result, a preallocation, has expected welfare OPT∗OPT^*OPT∗ but may give an item to several bidders.

The algorithm takes k=⌊3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m⌋k=\lfloor 3\log m/\log\log m\rfloork=⌊3logm/loglogm⌋ and:

  1. rounds until the preallocation (S1,…,Sn)(S_1,\dots,S_n)(S1​,…,Sn​) has every item in at most kkk bundles and ∑ivi(Si)≥OPT∗/3\sum_i v_i(S_i)\ge OPT^*/3∑i​vi​(Si​)≥OPT∗/3;
  2. splits each SiS_iSi​ into layers SirS_i^rSir​, r=1,…,kr=1,\dots,kr=1,…,k, where SirS_i^rSir​ holds the items of SiS_iSi​ that appear in exactly r−1r-1r−1 of S1,…,Si−1S_1,\dots,S_{i-1}S1​,…,Si−1​;
  3. picks the layer index rrr maximizing ∑ivi(Sir)\sum_i v_i(S_i^r)∑i​vi​(Sir​) and sets Ti=SirT_i=S_i^rTi​=Sir​;
  4. if some bidder has vi(M)≥∑i′vi′(Ti′)v_i(M)\ge\sum_{i'}v_{i'}(T_{i'})vi​(M)≥∑i′​vi′​(Ti′​), gives that bidder everything instead.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3.1, with the explicit ratio

For all sufficiently large mmm, for normalized, monotone, complement-free valuations and an optimal LP solution xxx with value OPT∗OPT^*OPT∗:

  1. if OPT∗>3max⁡ivi(M)OPT^*>3\max_i v_i(M)OPT∗>3maxi​vi​(M), one rounding meets the two conditions of step 1 with probability >1/6>1/6>1/6;
  2. from any preallocation meeting them, every admissible run of steps 2–4 outputs an allocation with
∑ivi(outputi) ≥ OPT3k,k=⌊3log⁡mlog⁡log⁡m⌋;\sum_i v_i(\text{output}_i)\ \ge\ \frac{OPT}{3k},\qquad k=\Big\lfloor\frac{3\log m}{\log\log m}\Big\rfloor;i∑​vi​(outputi​) ≥ 3kOPT​,k=⌊loglogm3logm​⌋;
  1. if OPT∗≤3max⁡ivi(M)OPT^*\le3\max_i v_i(M)OPT∗≤3maxi​vi​(M), the bidder maximizing vi(M)v_i(M)vi​(M) alone achieves OPT/3OPT/3OPT/3.

Milestones

  • OPT≤OPT∗OPT\le OPT^*OPT≤OPT∗ (proof, step (i)).
  • The layers of each index form an allocation and partition each SiS_iSi​ (proof, step (ii)).
  • Complement freeness gives ∑rvi(Sir)≥vi(Si)\sum_r v_i(S_i^r)\ge v_i(S_i)∑r​vi​(Sir​)≥vi​(Si​), and the best layer has welfare ≥OPT∗/(3k)\ge OPT^*/(3k)≥OPT∗/(3k) (proof, step (iii)).
  • Lemma 3.1: independent Bernoulli variables with ∑ipi≤1\sum_i p_i\le1∑i​pi​≤1 exceed 3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m3\log m/\log\log m3logm/loglogm with probability ≤1/m2\le1/m^2≤1/m2.
  • Lemma 3.2: for XXX a sum of independent [0,1][0,1][0,1] variables with mean μ\muμ, Pr⁡[∣X−μ∣≥α]≤μ/α2\Pr[|X-\mu|\ge\alpha]\le\mu/\alpha^2Pr[∣X−μ∣≥α]≤μ/α2.
  • §3.1.1: some item appears more than 3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m3\log m/\log\log m3logm/loglogm times with probability ≤1/m\le1/m≤1/m; the preallocation's welfare falls below OPT∗/3OPT^*/3OPT∗/3 with probability <3/4<3/4<3/4.

Significance

Theorem 3.1 was among the first polynomial-time approximation guarantees for welfare maximization with general subadditive bidders, and its layering argument is the standard way to turn an LP solution that is feasible up to a factor kkk into a feasible allocation losing only a factor kkk for subadditive objectives. The same argument applies to the kkk-duplicates auction and reappears in later rounding schemes. Lemma 3.1 is the standard balls-in-bins tail bound behind every log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m\log m/\log\log mlogm/loglogm load estimate.

The results are proved in the paper; none of them is formalized, on this platform or in Mathlib, as far as searches show. The mission produces a machine-checked version of the algorithm's guarantee with an explicit constant 3k3k3k in place of O(⋅)O(\cdot)O(⋅), a precise statement of the probabilistic step, and reusable statements of two concentration inequalities for sums of independent bounded variables.

Difficulty

The combinatorial part (steps (ii) and (iii)) is short. The difficulty is in step (i). The rounding is a product distribution over bundles, while the count of an item is a sum over bidders of indicators that depend on each bidder's whole bundle; connecting the finite product law to independent Bernoulli variables, and then to Lemma 3.1, requires building the independence structure explicitly. Lemma 3.1 itself does not follow from a Chernoff bound with a fixed relative deviation: the threshold 3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m3\log m/\log\log m3logm/loglogm grows with mmm while the mean stays at most 111, and the bound must hold uniformly in the number of variables, which a fixed-deviation Chernoff statement does not give. Finally, the event-BBB bound needs the preallocation's welfare as a sum of independent variables in [0,1][0,1][0,1], which requires rescaling by max⁡ivi(M)\max_i v_i(M)maxi​vi​(M) and monotonicity.

Formalization scope

Bidders are Fin n, items Fin m, bundles Finset (Fin m), valuations Finset (Fin m) → ℝ. Normalization and monotonicity, the paper's standing assumptions (p. 1), are hypotheses of the goal. log⁡\loglog is the natural logarithm; the paper does not fix a base. The rounding law is written as explicit finite sums over profiles σ:Fin n→Finset (Fin m)\sigma:\texttt{Fin } n\to\texttt{Finset (Fin } m)σ:Fin n→Finset (Fin m) with product weights, so independence across bidders is literal; Lemmas 3.1 and 3.2 are stated measure-theoretically with Mathlib's iIndepFun.

Explicit constants and conventions that replace the paper's notation:

  • The ratio O(k)=O(log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m)O(k)=O(\log m/\log\log m)O(k)=O(logm/loglogm) is stated as 3k3k3k with k=⌊3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m⌋k=\lfloor3\log m/\log\log m\rfloork=⌊3logm/loglogm⌋, the constant the proof establishes (step (iii), p. 6). "Sufficiently large mmm" is an existential m0m_0m0​.
  • The w.l.o.g. scaling max⁡ivi(M)=1\max_i v_i(M)=1maxi​vi​(M)=1 and the split at OPT∗=3OPT^*=3OPT∗=3 become the scale-free split at OPT∗=3max⁡ivi(M)OPT^*=3\max_i v_i(M)OPT∗=3maxi​vi​(M).
  • The choice of rrr in step (iii) and of the bidder in step (iv) are universally quantified over all admissible choices.

Printed slips resolved in the statements:

  • Lemma 3.1 mixes nnn and mmm. Here the number of variables is arbitrary, "sufficiently large" refers to mmm, and ∑ipi=1\sum_ip_i=1∑i​pi​=1 is relaxed to ∑ipi≤1\sum_ip_i\le1∑i​pi​≤1, which is what the application uses.
  • The display after Lemma 3.1 writes the threshold log⁡m/(3log⁡log⁡m)\log m/(3\log\log m)logm/(3loglogm); the lemma's 3log⁡m/log⁡log⁡m3\log m/\log\log m3logm/loglogm is used.
  • "Pr⁡[∨jEj]<1/n\Pr[\vee_jE_j]<1/nPr[∨j​Ej​]<1/n" and "≤1/n+3/4\le 1/n+3/4≤1/n+3/4" should read 1/m1/m1/m.
  • The event BBB is defined without its sum; it means ∑ivi(Si)<OPT∗/3\sum_iv_i(S_i)<OPT^*/3∑i​vi​(Si​)<OPT∗/3.

Trivializing formalizations are ruled out: the guarantee assumes the item-count bound (without it the layers do not cover the bundles), the probability statements assume an LP-feasible xxx, neither the layer index nor the step-(iv) bidder is fixed, and the ratio is the explicit 3k3k3k rather than an unspecified constant. Running time, the ellipsoid method and oracle complexity are out of scope. Contributions of general concentration lemmas for sums of independent bounded variables are welcome and reusable beyond this mission.

Selected references

  • S. Dobzinski, N. Nisan, M. Schapira, Approximation Algorithms for Combinatorial Auctions with Complement-Free Bidders, Mathematics of Operations Research 35(1):1–13, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.1090.0436
  • U. Feige, On Maximizing Welfare When Utility Functions Are Subadditive, SIAM Journal on Computing 39(1):122–142, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1137/070680977
  • B. Lehmann, D. Lehmann, N. Nisan, Combinatorial Auctions with Decreasing Marginal Utilities, Games and Economic Behavior 55(2):270–296, 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2005.02.006
  • M. Mitzenmacher, E. Upfal, Probability and Computing, Cambridge University Press, 2005. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511813603
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy II: Equilibrium Exists When Every Consumer Can Supply Productive LaborResearch Paper

Motivation

A competitive equilibrium is a list of production plans, consumption plans and prices at which every firm maximizes profit, every consumer maximizes utility within the budget, and no market has excess demand. Whether such prices exist at all is the consistency question behind general equilibrium theory, the welfare theorems, and applied equilibrium models used in policy analysis. Arrow and Debreu gave the first proof of existence for a model with production, private ownership and general convex preferences (Econometrica 22, 1954), using Debreu's existence theorem for abstract economies (PNAS 38, 1952).

Their Theorem I assumes that every consumer initially holds a positive amount of every commodity (Assumption IV.a). The authors call this "clearly unrealistic" (p. 280): a household does not hold every good, and most households own little beyond their labor. Theorem II, the subject of this mission, removes that assumption. It only asks that every consumer be able to supply some type of labor that is always productive of a commodity everyone desires. This is the version of the existence theorem that allows a wage-earner economy.

Timeline. Wald (1935–36) proved existence for special production models. Nash (1950) proved existence of equilibrium points for finite games, and Debreu (1952) extended it to abstract economies, in which each player's feasible set depends on the others' choices. Arrow and Debreu (1954) proved Theorems I and II. McKenzie's independent existence proof was published the same year (Econometrica 22, 1954).

Setting

There are lll commodities, nnn producers and mmm consumers; vectors live in Rl\mathbb R^lRl and x≦yx\leqq yx≦y is componentwise. Producer jjj has a production set YjY_jYj​. Consumer iii has a consumption set XiX_iXi​, a utility uiu_iui​ on XiX_iXi​, an endowment ζi\zeta_iζi​ and profit shares αij\alpha_{ij}αij​. Write Y=∑jYjY=\sum_jY_jY=∑j​Yj​, X=∑iXiX=\sum_iX_iX=∑i​Xi​, ζ=∑iζi\zeta=\sum_i\zeta_iζ=∑i​ζi​, and let P={p≧0, ∑hph=1}P=\{p\geqq0,\ \sum_hp_h=1\}P={p≧0, ∑h​ph​=1} be the price simplex. A competitive equilibrium (x1∗,…,xm∗,y1∗,…,yn∗,p∗)(x_1^*,\dots,x_m^*,y_1^*,\dots,y_n^*,p^*)(x1∗​,…,xm∗​,y1∗​,…,yn∗​,p∗) satisfies four conditions. Each yj∗y_j^*yj∗​ maximizes p∗⋅yjp^*\cdot y_jp∗⋅yj​ on YjY_jYj​. Each xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ maximizes uiu_iui​ on {xi∈Xi:p∗⋅xi≤p∗⋅ζi+∑jαijp∗⋅yj∗}\{x_i\in X_i: p^*\cdot x_i\le p^*\cdot\zeta_i+\sum_j\alpha_{ij}p^*\cdot y_j^*\}{xi​∈Xi​:p∗⋅xi​≤p∗⋅ζi​+∑j​αij​p∗⋅yj∗​}. The price vector satisfies p∗∈Pp^*\in Pp∗∈P. Finally z∗=∑xi∗−∑yj∗−ζ≦0z^*=\sum x_i^*-\sum y_j^*-\zeta\leqq0z∗=∑xi∗​−∑yj∗​−ζ≦0 and p∗⋅z∗=0p^*\cdot z^*=0p∗⋅z∗=0.

The assumptions of Theorem II are as follows. I: production sets are closed, convex and contain 000; Y∩Ω={0}Y\cap\Omega=\{0\}Y∩Ω={0} (no output without input); Y∩(−Y)={0}Y\cap(-Y)=\{0\}Y∩(−Y)={0} (no reversible production). II: each XiX_iXi​ is closed, convex and bounded below. III: uiu_iui​ is continuous, has no satiation point, and satisfies ui(tx+(1−t)x′)>ui(x′)u_i(tx+(1-t)x')>u_i(x')ui​(tx+(1−t)x′)>ui​(x′) whenever ui(x)>ui(x′)u_i(x)>u_i(x')ui​(x)>ui​(x′) and 0<t<10<t<10<t<1. IV.b: shares are nonnegative and sum to one for each firm. Two sets of commodities are defined from the data. The set D\mathcal DD contains the commodities always desired by every consumer: from any xi∈Xix_i\in X_ixi​∈Xi​, adding some positive amount of the commodity stays in XiX_iXi​ and raises uiu_iui​. The set P\mathcal PP contains the types of productive labor: for every y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y, (a) yh≤0y_h\le0yh​≤0, and (b) some y′∈Yy'\in Yy′∈Y satisfies yh′′≥yh′y'_{h'}\ge y_{h'}yh′′​≥yh′​ for all h′≠hh'\ne hh′=h and yh′′′>yh′′y'_{h''}>y_{h''}yh′′′​>yh′′​ for some h′′∈Dh''\in\mathcal Dh′′∈D. The remaining assumptions are:

  • IV′.a: each consumer has some xi∈Xix_i\in X_ixi​∈Xi​ with xi≦ζix_i\leqq\zeta_ixi​≦ζi​ and xhi<ζhix_{hi}<\zeta_{hi}xhi​<ζhi​ for some h∈Ph\in\mathcal Ph∈P;
  • V: some x∈Xx\in Xx∈X and y∈Yy\in Yy∈Y satisfy xh<yh+ζhx_h<y_h+\zeta_hxh​<yh​+ζh​ for every hhh;
  • VI: D≠∅\mathcal D\ne\emptysetD=∅;
  • VII: P≠∅\mathcal P\ne\emptysetP=∅.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem II (§4.5, p. 281)

Assumptions I–III, IV′, V–VII ⟹ ∃ (x∗,y∗,p∗) satisfying Conditions 1–4.\text{Assumptions I–III, IV}',\ \text{V–VII}\ \Longrightarrow\ \exists\,(x^*,y^*,p^*)\ \text{satisfying Conditions 1–4.}Assumptions I–III, IV′, V–VII ⟹ ∃(x∗,y∗,p∗) satisfying Conditions 1–4.

Milestones (§5, pp. 282–287)

They follow the paper's proof. Let π=∣P∣\pi=|\mathcal P|π=∣P∣ and Pε={p∈P:ph≥ε ∀h∈P}P^\varepsilon=\{p\in P: p_h\ge\varepsilon\ \forall h\in\mathcal P\}Pε={p∈P:ph​≥ε ∀h∈P} for 0<ε≤1/(2π)0<\varepsilon\le1/(2\pi)0<ε≤1/(2π). Let EεE^\varepsilonEε be the abstract economy in which consumers maximize utility under budget constraints, producers maximize profit, and a market participant chooses p∈Pεp\in P^\varepsilonp∈Pε to maximize p⋅zp\cdot zp⋅z. The milestones are:

  1. §5.0 (1). On PεP^\varepsilonPε every consumer can spend strictly less than p⋅ζip\cdot\zeta_ip⋅ζi​.
  2. §5.1.1 (5). Equilibrium points of EεE^\varepsilonEε satisfy x∗−y∗≦ζ′x^*-y^*\leqq\zeta'x∗−y∗≦ζ′ for a vector ζ′\zeta'ζ′ independent of ε\varepsilonε.
  3. §5.2.0. The attainable sets relative to ζ′\zeta'ζ′ are bounded.
  4. §5.2.1. The truncated economy E~ε\tilde E^\varepsilonE~ε has an equilibrium point.
  5. §5.2.2 (3)–(5). An equilibrium point of E~ε\tilde E^\varepsilonE~ε is one of EεE^\varepsilonEε.
  6. §5.3.0 (2). If ph∗>εp^*_h>\varepsilonph∗​>ε for all h∈Ph\in\mathcal Ph∈P, the point is a competitive equilibrium.
  7. §5.3.2 (1). Limits of equilibrium points as ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 are quasi-equilibria for consumers.
  8. §5.3.4 (3). If the floors bind, some desired commodity has limit price 000.
  9. §5.3.4 (6). If the floors bind, limit consumption minimizes expenditure over XiX_iXi​.
  10. §5.3.5. For some ε\varepsilonε the floor does not bind.

Significance

Theorem II is the existence theorem for a competitive economy in which consumers may own nothing but their labor. It shows that the survival assumption IV.a can be traded for conditions on labor, desirability and the possibility of an overall excess supply. Section 5.3.3 of the paper also isolates the quasi-equilibrium, in which utility maximization under the budget is replaced by cost minimization at a given utility level. That notion is used in later existence and welfare arguments.

The theorem has been proved since 1954; this mission does not reopen it. The work here is the machine-checked proof. The companion mission on Theorem I formalizes the shared model and Debreu's lemma. As of September 2026 neither theorem has a Lean formalization on the platform, and Mathlib contains no general equilibrium theory.

Difficulty

The obvious approach reuses the proof of Theorem I: build the abstract economy of consumers, producers and a price-choosing participant, and apply Debreu's lemma. That fails at the boundary of the price simplex. Without IV.a, a consumer's cheapest point in XiX_iXi​ can cost as much as the endowment at some prices, so the budget correspondence is not continuous there and the lemma does not apply. The paper therefore keeps prices of productive labor at least ε\varepsilonε and must then show that the floor does not bind for some ε\varepsilonε. That is a limit argument as ε→0\varepsilon\to0ε→0 which uses Assumptions V, VI and VII together, and each of the milestones 7–9 is a step of it. Debreu's lemma itself needs a Kakutani-type fixed point theorem for correspondences, which Mathlib does not provide.

Formalization scope

Commodity vectors are Fin l → ℝ. Consumers are indexed by Fin m and producers by Fin n. The inner product is ⬝ᵥ. The paper's x<yx<yx<y is strict in every component and is written componentwise, never as Lean's < on functions. D\mathcal DD and P\mathcal PP are computed from the economy, not supplied as parameters. Utilities are total functions, but every assumption on uiu_iui​ quantifies over XiX_iXi​ only. "Maximizes" is membership plus an inequality against every feasible alternative; no supremum is used. EEE, EεE^\varepsilonEε and E~ε\tilde E^\varepsilonE~ε are built by one constructor over the players Fin m ⊕ Fin n ⊕ Unit. The vector ζ′\zeta'ζ′ takes the lower bounds ξi\xi_iξi​ of Assumption II as an explicit argument. The milestones of §5.3 are stated for the limit of a sequence of equilibrium points, which is how the paper constructs them. Assumption V is dropped from every milestone except §5.3.5 and the goal. With V, the case assumption of §5.3.1 is contradictory and those milestones would hold vacuously.

A trivializing formalization is ruled out as follows. The assumptions are satisfiable with IV.a failing: a sorry-free check covers two goods, one consumer who owns nothing and can only supply labor, and one firm turning labor into the desired good. The goal therefore does not hold vacuously.

Needed infrastructure includes a Kakutani fixed point theorem or Debreu's lemma, compactness of truncated action sets, and sequential compactness arguments in Rl\mathbb R^lRl. AGT.brouwer_fixed_point is on the platform and can serve as a starting point. The lemma is reusable well beyond this mission. Contributions to any milestone, to the lemma, or to the boundedness results shared with Theorem I are welcome.

Selected references

  • K. J. Arrow and G. Debreu, Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy, Econometrica 22(3), 265–290, 1954. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907353
  • G. Debreu, A Social Equilibrium Existence Theorem, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 38(10), 886–893, 1952. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.38.10.886
  • L. W. McKenzie, On Equilibrium in Graham's Model of World Trade and Other Competitive Systems, Econometrica 22(2), 147–161, 1954. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907352
  • J. F. Nash, Equilibrium Points in n-Person Games, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 36(1), 48–49, 1950. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.36.1.48
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Mechanism DesignOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Bargaining under Incomplete Information II: The Linear Equilibrium of the Sealed-Offer Rule for Uniform ValuesResearch Paper

Motivation

A buyer and a seller negotiate over one indivisible good. Each knows the good's worth to themselves but not to the other side, so each shades their offer to exploit the other's uncertainty, and some mutually profitable trades fail. Chatterjee and Samuelson (Bargaining under Incomplete Information, Operations Research 31(5), 1983) modelled this as a one-shot game of simultaneous sealed offers and computed its equilibria in closed form for uniformly distributed values.

That closed-form equilibrium became the reference example of bilateral trade with two-sided private information. Myerson and Satterthwaite (J. Econ. Theory 29, 1983) proved that no mechanism can guarantee efficient trade in this setting and showed that, for uniform values, the equilibrium of the sealed-offer game with k=1/2k = 1/2k=1/2 attains the largest expected gains from trade of any incentive-compatible, individually rational mechanism. The later literature on the kkk-double auction (Satterthwaite and Williams, J. Econ. Theory 48, 1989; Leininger, Linhart and Radner, J. Econ. Theory 48, 1989) studies the same game and uses the linear equilibrium as its benchmark.

Setting

A seller has reservation price vsv_svs​ and a buyer has reservation price vbv_bvb​, both in [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ] with vˉ>0\bar v > 0vˉ>0. Each knows their own value. Each believes the other's value is uniformly distributed on [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ]: the distribution functions are Fs(v)=Fb(v)=v/vˉF_s(v) = F_b(v) = v/\bar vFs​(v)=Fb​(v)=v/vˉ on [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ]. In Lean this belief is the measure unif v̄, Lebesgue measure conditioned on [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ].

Under the Bargaining Rule, the seller asks sss and the buyer offers bbb simultaneously. If b≥sb \ge sb≥s the good is sold at P=kb+(1−k)sP = kb + (1-k)sP=kb+(1−k)s for a fixed k∈[0,1]k \in [0, 1]k∈[0,1]; if b<sb < sb<s there is no sale. On a sale the seller earns P−vsP - v_sP−vs​ and the buyer vb−Pv_b - Pvb​−P; otherwise both earn zero. The case k=1k = 1k=1 gives the buyer the right to make a take-it-or-leave-it offer, k=0k = 0k=0 gives it to the seller, and k=1/2k = 1/2k=1/2 splits the difference.

An offer strategy maps values to offers: SSS for the seller, BBB for the buyer. Against SSS, a buyer with value vvv who offers bbb earns in expectation

πb(b,v)=∫1{S(vs)≤b} (v−kb−(1−k)S(vs)) d unifvˉ(vs),\pi_b(b, v) = \int \mathbf 1\{S(v_s) \le b\}\,\bigl(v - kb - (1-k)S(v_s)\bigr)\,d\,\mathrm{unif}_{\bar v}(v_s),πb​(b,v)=∫1{S(vs​)≤b}(v−kb−(1−k)S(vs​))dunifvˉ​(vs​),

and against BBB a seller with value vvv asking sss earns πs(s,v)=∫1{s≤B(vb)} (kB(vb)+(1−k)s−v) d unifvˉ(vb)\pi_s(s, v) = \int \mathbf 1\{s \le B(v_b)\}\,(kB(v_b) + (1-k)s - v)\,d\,\mathrm{unif}_{\bar v}(v_b)πs​(s,v)=∫1{s≤B(vb​)}(kB(vb​)+(1−k)s−v)dunifvˉ​(vb​). These are buyerProfit and sellerProfit. The pair (S,B)(S, B)(S,B) is an equilibrium (IsEquilibrium) if, for every value in [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ], each player's prescribed offer maximises their expected profit over all real offers.

Formalization targets

Goal: Example 1(a)

Write Slin(v)=v2−k+1−k2vˉS_{\mathrm{lin}}(v) = \frac{v}{2-k} + \frac{1-k}{2}\bar vSlin​(v)=2−kv​+21−k​vˉ and Blin(v)=v1+k+k(1−k)2(1+k)vˉB_{\mathrm{lin}}(v) = \frac{v}{1+k} + \frac{k(1-k)}{2(1+k)}\bar vBlin​(v)=1+kv​+2(1+k)k(1−k)​vˉ. If SSS and BBB are measurable and

S(vs)=Slin(vs)for 0≤vs≤2−k2vˉ,S(vs)≥Slin(vs)for 2−k2vˉ<vs≤vˉ,B(vb)≤Blin(vb)for 0≤vb<1−k2vˉ,B(vb)=Blin(vb)for 1−k2vˉ≤vb≤vˉ,\begin{aligned} S(v_s) &= S_{\mathrm{lin}}(v_s) && \text{for } 0 \le v_s \le \tfrac{2-k}{2}\bar v, &\qquad S(v_s) &\ge S_{\mathrm{lin}}(v_s) && \text{for } \tfrac{2-k}{2}\bar v < v_s \le \bar v,\\ B(v_b) &\le B_{\mathrm{lin}}(v_b) && \text{for } 0 \le v_b < \tfrac{1-k}{2}\bar v, &\qquad B(v_b) &= B_{\mathrm{lin}}(v_b) && \text{for } \tfrac{1-k}{2}\bar v \le v_b \le \bar v, \end{aligned}S(vs​)B(vb​)​=Slin​(vs​)≤Blin​(vb​)​​for 0≤vs​≤22−k​vˉ,for 0≤vb​<21−k​vˉ,​S(vs​)B(vb​)​≥Slin​(vs​)=Blin​(vb​)​​for 22−k​vˉ<vs​≤vˉ,for 21−k​vˉ≤vb​≤vˉ,​

then (S,B)(S, B)(S,B) is an equilibrium. The statement leaves the no-trade branches free, as the paper does: a seller whose value exceeds every serious bid may ask anything at least SlinS_{\mathrm{lin}}Slin​, and a buyer whose value is below every serious ask may bid anything at most BlinB_{\mathrm{lin}}Blin​.

Milestones

  1. The linear rules solve (3a)–(3b). The paper's own justification of Example 1(a): with Fb=Fs=v/vˉF_b = F_s = v/\bar vFb​=Fs​=v/vˉ and densities 1/vˉ1/\bar v1/vˉ, the pair (Slin,Blin)(S_{\mathrm{lin}}, B_{\mathrm{lin}})(Slin​,Blin​) satisfies the linked differential equations of the paper's Theorem 2, kFb(y)S′(y)+fb(y)S(y)=B−1(S(y))fb(y)kF_b(y)S'(y) + f_b(y)S(y) = B^{-1}(S(y))f_b(y)kFb​(y)S′(y)+fb​(y)S(y)=B−1(S(y))fb​(y) and (1−k)(1−Fs(x))B′(x)−fs(x)B(x)=−S−1(B(x))fs(x)(1-k)(1 - F_s(x))B'(x) - f_s(x)B(x) = -S^{-1}(B(x))f_s(x)(1−k)(1−Fs​(x))B′(x)−fs​(x)B(x)=−S−1(B(x))fs​(x).
  2. Seller half. For every seller value v∈[0,vˉ]v \in [0, \bar v]v∈[0,vˉ] and every real ask sss, πs(s,v)≤πs(S(v),v)\pi_s(s, v) \le \pi_s(S(v), v)πs​(s,v)≤πs​(S(v),v).
  3. Buyer half. For every buyer value v∈[0,vˉ]v \in [0, \bar v]v∈[0,vˉ] and every real offer bbb, πb(b,v)≤πb(B(v),v)\pi_b(b, v) \le \pi_b(B(v), v)πb​(b,v)≤πb​(B(v),v).

The goal is the conjunction of milestones 2 and 3, by definition of equilibrium. Milestone 1 is the step the paper actually writes down; it records the necessary first-order conditions and does not by itself give the global best-response property.

Significance

The result. Example 1(a) is the explicit equilibrium from which the paper derives the probability of trade, (−k2+k+2)/8(-k^2 + k + 2)/8(−k2+k+2)/8, and each party's ex ante profit as a function of kkk (Example 1(b)–(c)). It is the equilibrium shown by Myerson and Satterthwaite to be second-best efficient at k=1/2k = 1/2k=1/2, and it is the standard test case against which other double-auction equilibria and mechanisms for bilateral trade are compared.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the literature but, to our knowledge, has not been machine-checked. The paper itself only observes that the linear branches satisfy the first-order conditions; the global statement (no deviation to any real offer is profitable, including deviations that reach the other side's no-trade types) is left to the reader. A formal proof closes that gap and yields reusable facts about expected profits under uniform beliefs. The two companion missions of this series formalize the paper's Theorem 2 (the linked differential equations in general) and Example 1(b)–(c) (trade probability and expected profits).

Difficulty

First-order conditions do not suffice. A seller can ask below the lowest serious ask 1−k2vˉ\frac{1-k}{2}\bar v21−k​vˉ and trade with buyers on the free lower branch, whose bids are only bounded above; a buyer can bid above 2−k2vˉ\frac{2-k}{2}\bar v22−k​vˉ and meet sellers on the free upper branch, whose asks are only bounded below. The best-response inequality must hold for every such deviation and for every admissible choice of the free branches, so it cannot be read off from the linear strategies alone. The expected profit is a piecewise function of the offer, with the pieces determined by where the offer meets the opponent's linear branch and the free branches, and the inequality must be shown on each piece and at the boundaries, uniformly in k∈[0,1]k \in [0, 1]k∈[0,1] including the endpoints k=0k = 0k=0 and k=1k = 1k=1, where one of the free ranges is empty.

Formalization scope

Values and offers are real numbers; strategies are functions R→R\mathbb R \to \mathbb RR→R, and their values outside [0,vˉ][0, \bar v][0,vˉ] are irrelevant because the beliefs give that set measure zero. Beliefs are the probability measure unif v̄ = volume[|Icc 0 v̄]; expected profits are Bochner integrals against it, written over the opponent's value rather than against an offer density. The value intervals are closed; ties b=sb = sb=s trade; deviations range over all of R\mathbb RR; kkk ranges over the closed interval [0,1][0, 1][0,1].

The strategies SSS and BBB are assumed measurable. Without this a deviation's expected profit could be the junk value 000 of a non-integrable Bochner integral; with it, all integrands are bounded on the trade event. The inline coefficient (k(1−k)/2(1+k))vˉ(k(1-k)/2(1+k))\bar v(k(1−k)/2(1+k))vˉ of the page is read as k(1−k)2(1+k)vˉ\frac{k(1-k)}{2(1+k)}\bar v2(1+k)k(1−k)​vˉ, the reading under which the buyer's lowest serious bid equals the seller's lowest serious ask, as in the paper's Figure 1.

The claim is the sufficiency direction only; the paper states that other equilibria exist, and a statement that every equilibrium has the linear form would be false. The canonical linear pair satisfies all hypotheses, so the goal is not vacuous.

Useful infrastructure includes integrals of piecewise-affine functions against the uniform measure on an interval and the distribution function of volume[|Icc 0 v̄]. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and lemmas computing πs\pi_sπs​ and πb\pi_bπb​ in closed form on each piece.

Selected references

  • K. Chatterjee and W. Samuelson, Bargaining under Incomplete Information, Operations Research 31(5):835–851, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.31.5.835
  • R. B. Myerson and M. A. Satterthwaite, Efficient Mechanisms for Bilateral Trading, Journal of Economic Theory 29(2):265–281, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(83)90048-0
  • M. A. Satterthwaite and S. R. Williams, Bilateral Trade with the Sealed Bid k-Double Auction: Existence and Efficiency, Journal of Economic Theory 48(1):107–133, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90120-8
  • W. Leininger, P. B. Linhart and R. Radner, Equilibria of the Sealed-Bid Mechanism for Bargaining with Incomplete Information, Journal of Economic Theory 48(1):63–106, 1989. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90121-X
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Operations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Monotonic Solutions of Cooperative Games 2: The Shapley Value Is the Unique Symmetric Strongly Monotonic Allocation ProcedureResearch Paper

Motivation

Cost and benefit allocation problems arise whenever several parties share a joint undertaking: towns building a common water supply, divisions of a firm sharing overhead, users of a multi-purpose reservoir. They are modelled as cooperative games, and a rule that divides the joint value among the players is an allocation procedure. The standard such rule, the Shapley value, was characterized by Shapley (1953) through efficiency, symmetry, a dummy axiom and additivity. Additivity (the allocation of a sum of two games is the sum of the allocations) is a mathematical convenience with little direct appeal in applications, and it has been the most criticized of the four axioms.

H. P. Young's paper Monotonic Solutions of Cooperative Games (Int. J. Game Theory 14, 1985) studies allocation procedures through monotonicity: how a player's allocation should respond when the game changes. Its Theorem 1 shows that the core is incompatible with coalitional monotonicity for five or more players (the subject of the sister mission of this series). Its Theorem 2, the subject of this mission, shows that efficiency, symmetry and a single monotonicity axiom — strong monotonicity — determine the Shapley value, with no additivity axiom at all. The result is widely cited as Young's axiomatization of the Shapley value, usually in the form with the marginality condition (7) that the paper states in its remarks.

Timeline:

  • 1953: Shapley introduces the value, characterized by efficiency, symmetry, dummy and additivity (A value for n-person games).
  • 1985: Young replaces dummy and additivity by strong monotonicity (Theorem 2), and remarks that the weaker marginality condition (7) suffices.
  • Later work (e.g. Chun 1989, Pintér 2015) extends the characterization to other classes of games; this mission covers the 1985 statement only.

Setting

Fix nnn and the player set N={1,…,n}N = \{1, \dots, n\}N={1,…,n}. A game is a function vvv on the coalitions S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N with v(∅)=0v(\emptyset) = 0v(∅)=0; superadditivity is not assumed. An allocation procedure is a map φ\varphiφ assigning to each game vvv a vector φ(v)∈RN\varphi(v) \in \mathbb{R}^Nφ(v)∈RN with ∑i∈Nφi(v)=v(N)\sum_{i \in N} \varphi_i(v) = v(N)∑i∈N​φi​(v)=v(N) (efficiency).

The marginal contribution of player iii to coalition SSS (Eq. (3)) is

vi(S)={v(S)−v(S∖{i})i∈S,v(S∪{i})−v(S)i∉S,v^i(S) = \begin{cases} v(S) - v(S \setminus \{i\}) & i \in S,\\ v(S \cup \{i\}) - v(S) & i \notin S,\end{cases}vi(S)={v(S)−v(S∖{i})v(S∪{i})−v(S)​i∈S,i∈/S,​

defined for every SSS. The Shapley value is

Shi(v)=∑S∋i(∣S∣−1)! (∣N∣−∣S∣)!∣N∣! vi(S).\mathrm{Sh}_i(v) = \sum_{S \ni i} \frac{(|S|-1)!\,(|N|-|S|)!}{|N|!}\, v^i(S).Shi​(v)=S∋i∑​∣N∣!(∣S∣−1)!(∣N∣−∣S∣)!​vi(S).

The axioms:

  • Strong monotonicity (6): vi(S)≥wi(S)v^i(S) \ge w^i(S)vi(S)≥wi(S) for all SSS implies φi(v)≥φi(w)\varphi_i(v) \ge \varphi_i(w)φi​(v)≥φi​(w).
  • Marginality (7): vi(S)=wi(S)v^i(S) = w^i(S)vi(S)=wi(S) for all SSS implies φi(v)=φi(w)\varphi_i(v) = \varphi_i(w)φi​(v)=φi​(w).
  • Symmetry: φπi(πv)=φi(v)\varphi_{\pi i}(\pi v) = \varphi_i(v)φπi​(πv)=φi​(v) for every permutation π\piπ of NNN, where (πv)(πS)=v(S)(\pi v)(\pi S) = v(S)(πv)(πS)=v(S).
  • Dummy axiom (11): vi(S)=0v^i(S) = 0vi(S)=0 for all SSS implies φi(v)=0\varphi_i(v) = 0φi​(v)=0.

A primitive game vRv_RvR​ (∅≠R⊆N\emptyset \ne R \subseteq N∅=R⊆N) takes the value 111 on coalitions containing RRR and 000 elsewhere.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 2 (p. 70)

For every map φ\varphiφ from games on NNN to RN\mathbb{R}^NRN,

φ efficient, symmetric, strongly monotonic  ⟺  φ(v)=Sh(v) for every game v.\varphi \text{ efficient, symmetric, strongly monotonic} \iff \varphi(v) = \mathrm{Sh}(v) \text{ for every game } v.φ efficient, symmetric, strongly monotonic⟺φ(v)=Sh(v) for every game v.

Both directions are part of the goal: the Shapley value has the three properties, and it is the only map that has them.

Milestones

  1. The Shapley value is strongly monotonic (p. 70).
  2. Strong monotonicity implies marginality, Eq. (7).
  3. Symmetry, efficiency and (7) imply that dummy players get nothing, Eq. (8).
  4. Every game is a combination of primitive games, v=∑∅≠RcRvRv = \sum_{\emptyset \ne R} c_R v_Rv=∑∅=R​cR​vR​, Eq. (9) (quoted from Shapley).
  5. On such an expression, Shi(v)=∑R∋icR/∣R∣\mathrm{Sh}_i(v) = \sum_{R \ni i} c_R / |R|Shi​(v)=∑R∋i​cR​/∣R∣ (p. 70).
  6. A symmetric efficient procedure satisfying (7) gives cR/∣R∣c_R/|R|cR​/∣R∣ to each member of RRR and 000 to the others on the game cRvRc_R v_RcR​vR​ (p. 70).
  7. Deleting from (9) the terms whose coalition omits iii leaves iii's marginal contributions unchanged (p. 71, leading to Eq. (10)).
  8. Under symmetry, players lying in every coalition of the expression receive equal amounts (p. 71).

Stronger forms (p. 71)

  • Theorem 2 with (7) in place of strong monotonicity: efficiency, symmetry and marginality characterize the Shapley value.
  • Shapley's dummy axiom (11) together with additivity implies (7).

Efficiency and symmetry of the Shapley value are supporting theorems of the existence half; the paper uses them without separate statement.

Significance

The result. Theorem 2 shows that additivity is not needed to single out the Shapley value: a player's payoff is pinned down by symmetry, efficiency, and the requirement that it respond monotonically to that player's own marginal contributions. This gives the Shapley value a justification that can be checked directly in applications — a division that improves its marginal contributions to every coalition is never penalized — and the marginality form (7) is the standard starting point for characterizations on restricted classes of games and for extensions to games with a variable player set.

The formalization. The theorem is proved and classical; no machine-checked proof of it is known to exist. The mission produces a checked proof of Young's characterization together with reusable infrastructure: marginal contributions, the unanimity-game basis of the space of games (a Möbius-inversion statement on the subset lattice), the Shapley value on unanimity games, and the Shapley value's efficiency, symmetry and monotonicity for the published ShapleyValue definition. These are the ingredients of most other axiomatizations of the Shapley value (Shapley 1953, Hart–Mas-Colell's potential) and are useful beyond this mission.

Difficulty

The existence half is a direct computation. The uniqueness half cannot proceed by linearity, since φ\varphiφ is not assumed additive: knowing φ\varphiφ on each primitive game cRvRc_R v_RcR​vR​ says nothing directly about φ\varphiφ on their sum. The obvious idea — decompose vvv into primitive games and add up — therefore fails. What must be controlled instead is how much of a game each player "sees" through the marginal-contribution vector alone, and how symmetry and efficiency distribute what remains. The formal proof also has to manage the dependence of the argument on a minimal-length expression (9) while keeping all comparisons inside the class of games with v(∅)=0v(\emptyset) = 0v(∅)=0.

Formalization scope

  • Players are Fin n: the paper's player kkk is the Lean index k−1k - 1k−1. The player set is fixed, and φ\varphiφ is a single map Game n → Fin n → ℝ, as in the paper; no lower bound on nnn is needed (at n=0n = 0n=0 both sides of the goal hold).
  • Games are Game n := {v : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ // v ∅ = 0}. The normalisation is essential: on arbitrary set functions a constant game c≠0c \ne 0c=0 would receive c/nc/nc/n per player from every efficient symmetric procedure, but 000 from the Shapley formula, and Theorem 2 would be false.
  • The Shapley value is the published definition Supermodularity.Cooperative.ShapleyValue, written as a sum over T=S∖{i}T = S \setminus \{i\}T=S∖{i} with weight ∣T∣! (n−∣T∣−1)!/n!|T|!\,(n-|T|-1)!/n!∣T∣!(n−∣T∣−1)!/n!; it agrees term by term with the formula above.
  • Symmetry. The paper prints the permuted game as πv(S)=v(πS)\pi v(S) = v(\pi S)πv(S)=v(πS). Read literally together with φπi(πv)=φi(v)\varphi_{\pi i}(\pi v) = \varphi_i(v)φπi​(πv)=φi​(v), the Shapley value itself would fail symmetry for a 3-cycle, and Theorem 2 would be false. The formalization uses the standard reading (πv)(πS)=v(S)(\pi v)(\pi S) = v(S)(πv)(πS)=v(S), i.e. (πv)(T)=v(π−1T)(\pi v)(T) = v(\pi^{-1} T)(πv)(T)=v(π−1T). The two readings coincide for transpositions, the only permutations the paper's proof uses.
  • Strong monotonicity quantifies over all coalitions SSS, including those not containing iii, as in (3); this is equivalent to quantifying over S∋iS \ni iS∋i only.
  • The dummy axiom and additivity appear only in the stronger forms, never as hypotheses of the goal; a formalization that assumed them, or that defined any axiom through the Shapley formula, would trivialize Theorem 2.
  • The paper's "index" of a game (minimum number of terms in (9)) is a proof device; milestones quantify over expressions directly.
  • Not included: the variant of the proof within the class of superadditive games (p. 71, a sketch with a changed domain), and the example φi(v)=[vi(N)]2\varphi_i(v) = [v^i(N)]^2φi​(v)=[vi(N)]2 (p. 72), whose printed claim of strong monotonicity fails when marginal contributions are negative.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones in any order, general lemmas on unanimity-game expansions over Finset powersets, and alternative proofs of the uniqueness half.

Selected references

  • H. P. Young, Monotonic Solutions of Cooperative Games, International Journal of Game Theory 14 (1985), 65–72. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01769885
  • L. S. Shapley, A value for n-person games, in: Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Annals of Mathematics Studies 28, Princeton University Press, 1953, 307–317. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400881970-018
  • Y. Chun, A new axiomatization of the Shapley value, Games and Economic Behavior 1 (1989), 119–130. https://doi.org/10.1016/0899-8256(89)90014-6
  • M. Pintér, Young's axiomatization of the Shapley value: a new proof, Annals of Operations Research 235 (2015), 665–673. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-015-1976-2
  • S. Hart, A. Mas-Colell, Potential, value, and consistency, Econometrica 57 (1989), 589–614. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911054
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy I: Equilibrium Exists When Every Consumer Can Trade Every GoodResearch Paper

Motivation

Walras (1874) described an economy as a system of simultaneous equations, one per market, and argued that a set of prices clearing all markets exists because the number of equations equals the number of unknowns. Counting equations proves nothing, and the question of whether competitive equilibrium exists at all remained open for eighty years. Wald (1935–36) proved existence in special production models under restrictive assumptions on demand. In 1954 Kenneth Arrow and Gérard Debreu gave the first existence proof for a general model with production, many consumers, convex technologies and preferences given by utility indicators (Econometrica 22 (1954) 265–290); McKenzie published an independent proof for a trade model in the same year (Econometrica 22 (1954) 147–161). The resulting Arrow–Debreu model is the reference model of general equilibrium theory and the starting point of market-equilibrium problems in operations research and algorithmic game theory.

The paper proves two existence theorems. This mission is the first, Theorem I, whose key assumption is that every consumer initially holds a positive amount of every commodity. A second mission treats Theorem II, which replaces that assumption by a weaker condition on labour supply.

Setting

There are l≥1l \ge 1l≥1 commodities; a commodity vector is an element of Rl\mathbb R^lRl, compared componentwise (x≧yx \geqq yx≧y means xh≥yhx_h \ge y_hxh​≥yh​ for all hhh; x>yx > yx>y means xh>yhx_h > y_hxh​>yh​ for all hhh). The inner product is p⋅x=∑hphxhp\cdot x = \sum_h p_h x_hp⋅x=∑h​ph​xh​.

  • Producers j=1,…,nj = 1, \dots, nj=1,…,n each have a production set Yj⊆RlY_j \subseteq \mathbb R^lYj​⊆Rl (outputs positive, inputs negative). The aggregate production set is Y=∑jYjY = \sum_j Y_jY=∑j​Yj​.
  • Consumers i=1,…,mi = 1, \dots, mi=1,…,m each have a consumption set Xi⊆RlX_i \subseteq \mathbb R^lXi​⊆Rl, a utility indicator uiu_iui​ on XiX_iXi​, initial holdings ζi∈Rl\zeta_i \in \mathbb R^lζi​∈Rl, and a share αij\alpha_{ij}αij​ of the profit of producer jjj.

Assumptions I–IV are: (I.a) each YjY_jYj​ is closed, convex and contains 000; (I.b) Y∩Ω={0}Y \cap \Omega = \{0\}Y∩Ω={0} with Ω={x≧0}\Omega = \{x \geqq 0\}Ω={x≧0}; (I.c) Y∩(−Y)={0}Y \cap (-Y) = \{0\}Y∩(−Y)={0}; (II) each XiX_iXi​ is closed, convex and bounded from below; (III.a) uiu_iui​ is continuous on XiX_iXi​; (III.b) no xi∈Xix_i \in X_ixi​∈Xi​ is a satiation point; (III.c) if ui(xi)>ui(xi′)u_i(x_i) > u_i(x_i')ui​(xi​)>ui​(xi′​) and 0<t<10 < t < 10<t<1 then ui[txi+(1−t)xi′]>ui(xi′)u_i[t x_i + (1-t) x_i'] > u_i(x_i')ui​[txi​+(1−t)xi′​]>ui​(xi′​); (IV.a) some xi∈Xix_i \in X_ixi​∈Xi​ satisfies xi<ζix_i < \zeta_ixi​<ζi​; (IV.b) αij≥0\alpha_{ij} \ge 0αij​≥0 and ∑iαij=1\sum_i \alpha_{ij} = 1∑i​αij​=1.

A competitive equilibrium is a tuple (x1∗,…,xm∗,y1∗,…,yn∗,p∗)(x_1^*, \dots, x_m^*, y_1^*, \dots, y_n^*, p^*)(x1∗​,…,xm∗​,y1∗​,…,yn∗​,p∗) such that

  1. each yj∗y_j^*yj∗​ maximizes p∗⋅yjp^*\cdot y_jp∗⋅yj​ over YjY_jYj​;
  2. each xi∗x_i^*xi∗​ maximizes uiu_iui​ over {xi∈Xi:p∗⋅xi≦p∗⋅ζi+∑jαij p∗⋅yj∗}\{x_i \in X_i : p^*\cdot x_i \leqq p^*\cdot\zeta_i + \sum_j \alpha_{ij}\, p^*\cdot y_j^*\}{xi​∈Xi​:p∗⋅xi​≦p∗⋅ζi​+∑j​αij​p∗⋅yj∗​};
  3. p∗∈P={p≧0:∑hph=1}p^* \in P = \{p \geqq 0 : \sum_h p_h = 1\}p∗∈P={p≧0:∑h​ph​=1};
  4. z∗=∑ixi∗−∑jyj∗−∑iζiz^* = \sum_i x_i^* - \sum_j y_j^* - \sum_i \zeta_iz∗=∑i​xi∗​−∑j​yj∗​−∑i​ζi​ satisfies z∗≦0z^* \leqq 0z∗≦0 and p∗⋅z∗=0p^*\cdot z^* = 0p∗⋅z∗=0.

An abstract economy (§2) is a game in which each player's feasible set Aι(aˉι)A_\iota(\bar a_\iota)Aι​(aˉι​) depends on the other players' actions aˉι\bar a_\iotaaˉι​; an equilibrium point is a profile at which every player maximizes its pay-off over its feasible set. The proof builds an abstract economy EEE with the consumers, the producers and a fictitious market participant who chooses p∈Pp \in Pp∈P and receives p⋅zp\cdot zp⋅z, and a truncated version E~\tilde EE~ in which all choices are restricted to a large cube CCC.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem I

Assumptions I–IV  ⟹  ∃ (x∗,y∗,p∗) satisfying Conditions 1–4.\text{Assumptions I–IV} \implies \exists\, (x^*, y^*, p^*) \text{ satisfying Conditions 1–4.}Assumptions I–IV⟹∃(x∗,y∗,p∗) satisfying Conditions 1–4.

The statement fixes no constants; its only added hypothesis is l≥1l \ge 1l≥1.

Milestones

In the order of the paper's argument:

  1. §1.3.1: under II, III.a and III.c, each uiu_iui​ is quasi-concave on XiX_iXi​.
  2. §1.4.2 (1): Condition 2 together with II, III.b and III.c gives p∗⋅xi∗=p∗⋅ζi+∑jαij p∗⋅yj∗p^*\cdot x_i^* = p^*\cdot\zeta_i + \sum_j \alpha_{ij}\, p^*\cdot y_j^*p∗⋅xi∗​=p∗⋅ζi​+∑j​αij​p∗⋅yj∗​.
  3. Lemma 2.5: an abstract economy with compact convex action sets, continuous pay-offs that are quasi-concave in the player's own action, and continuous constraint correspondences with closed graphs and nonempty convex values has an equilibrium point.
  4. §3.1.2 (2): at an equilibrium point of EEE, Condition 2 holds.
  5. §3.2: every equilibrium point of EEE is a competitive equilibrium.
  6. §3.3.1 (7) and §3.3.2 (2): the attainable sets Y^j\hat Y_jY^j​ and X^i\hat X_iX^i​ (choices compatible with z≦0z \leqq 0z≦0) are bounded.
  7. Remark §3.3.5: if p⋅ζi>min⁡X~ip⋅xip\cdot\zeta_i > \min_{\tilde X_i} p\cdot x_ip⋅ζi​>minX~i​​p⋅xi​, the truncated budget correspondence A~i\tilde A_iA~i​ is continuous at that point.
  8. §3.4.0: for a cube CCC containing every X^i\hat X_iX^i​ and Y^j\hat Y_jY^j​ in its interior, E~\tilde EE~ has an equilibrium point.
  9. §3.4.1: every equilibrium point of E~\tilde EE~ is an equilibrium point of EEE.

Significance

Theorem I shows that the competitive model is consistent: under convexity, continuity, non-satiation and survival assumptions, prices exist at which profit maximization, utility maximization and market clearing hold simultaneously. The welfare theorems, comparative statics, and algorithms that compute equilibria (Scarf's method, market-equilibrium algorithms) presuppose it. Lemma 2.5, Debreu's social-equilibrium theorem (PNAS 38 (1952) 886–893), is also used on its own for generalized Nash equilibrium problems with coupled constraints.

The theorem is proved and textbook material (Debreu, Theory of Value, 1959). To the best of the catalog search, no proof assistant library contains Theorem I, Lemma 2.5, or a Kakutani-type fixed-point theorem for correspondences; on this platform the only related results are Brouwer's fixed-point theorem (AGT.brouwer_fixed_point, proved) and Nash's theorem for finite games (AGT.nash_existence), a special case of Lemma 2.5 with constant constraint sets. The mission produces a machine-checked proof of the paper's argument and, along the way, reusable statements about abstract economies and their equilibria.

Difficulty

The central difficulty is Lemma 2.5. The paper does not prove it but cites Debreu (1952), whose proof uses the Eilenberg–Montgomery fixed-point theorem for correspondences with contractible values. Brouwer's theorem alone does not suffice: the best-response correspondence of an abstract economy is set-valued, and its closed graph must be established from the continuity of the feasible-set correspondences, which is a maximum-theorem argument that Mathlib does not contain. A Kakutani-type fixed-point theorem, or an approximation argument reducing to Brouwer, is needed.

A second difficulty is non-compactness. The economy EEE has unbounded action sets, so the Lemma does not apply to it directly. The boundedness of the attainable sets (§3.3.1) is an asymptotic argument using the irreversibility and no-free-production assumptions I.b and I.c, and the passage from E~\tilde EE~ back to EEE (§3.4.1) needs the attainable choices to lie in the interior of the cube, so that local optimality implies global optimality through III.c. A fixed-point argument on an excess-demand function does not apply directly: demand need not be single-valued or even defined at every price.

Formalization scope

Commodity space is Fin l → ℝ with its componentwise order; the paper's strict vector inequality is written coordinatewise (∀ h, x h < ζ i h), not with the order-theoretic strict inequality on functions. Consumers are Fin m, producers Fin n, and the players of EEE are Fin m ⊕ Fin n ⊕ Unit. Utilities are total functions, and every assumption on them quantifies over XiX_iXi​ only. "Maximizes" is always written as membership plus an inequality against every feasible alternative, never through a supremum. Continuity of a constraint correspondence is the paper's sequential definition (§2.4), a lower-hemicontinuity condition, required at every point of the other players' action space; convergence is asked only in the other players' coordinates.

Two hypotheses are made explicit because the formal statements would otherwise be false: Theorem I and §3.4.0 assume l≥1l \ge 1l≥1 (for l=0l = 0l=0 the price simplex is empty), and Lemma 2.5 assumes every action set nonempty (otherwise, with two or more players and all action sets empty, every hypothesis holds vacuously). The Remark of §3.3.5 carries, as a hypothesis, the nonemptiness of A~i\tilde A_iA~i​ established in §3.3.4. A formalization that makes Theorem I trivial, for instance by taking PPP to contain 000, by reading IV.a with the order-theoretic strict inequality, or by allowing an empty commodity space, is ruled out by these definitions.

A complete development needs: Kakutani's fixed-point theorem (or a Brouwer-based substitute) for compact convex subsets of Rl\mathbb R^lRl; Berge's maximum theorem for the best-response correspondence; the asymptotic-cone argument for §3.3.1; and elementary convex analysis for the budget sets. The abstract-economy definitions and Lemma 2.5 are reusable beyond this mission, including by the Theorem II mission. Contributions of any of these components are welcome, as are alternative proofs of Lemma 2.5.

Selected references

  • K. J. Arrow and G. Debreu, Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy, Econometrica 22(3) (1954) 265–290. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907353
  • G. Debreu, A Social Equilibrium Existence Theorem, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 38(10) (1952) 886–893. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.38.10.886
  • L. W. McKenzie, On Equilibrium in Graham's Model of World Trade and Other Competitive Systems, Econometrica 22(2) (1954) 147–161. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907539
  • J. Nash, Equilibrium Points in n-Person Games, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 36(1) (1950) 48–49. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.36.1.48
  • S. Kakutani, A Generalization of Brouwer's Fixed Point Theorem, Duke Mathematical Journal 8(3) (1941) 457–459. https://doi.org/10.1215/S0012-7094-41-00838-4
  • G. Debreu, Theory of Value: An Axiomatic Analysis of Economic Equilibrium, Wiley, 1959 (Cowles Foundation Monograph 17).
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Convex OptimizationOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities II: Optimality Conditions for the Sum of the Largest Linear FormsResearch Paper

Motivation

In 1955 E. M. L. Beale showed how Dantzig's simplex method, which was built for linear objectives, can be carried over to certain nonlinear convex objectives that are minimized subject to linear inequalities (Beale 1955). Section 4 of that paper treats one such objective: the sum of the ttt largest of a set of ggg linear forms. Beale's motivation comes from the theory of games: "if the enemy has to choose ttt out of a set of ggg possible actions, and LfL_fLf​ represents his average gain through using the fffth", then the defender wants to minimize the sum of the ttt largest LfL_fLf​.

The same objective can be written as a linear program. One introduces a bound uuu and requires every sum of ttt forms to be at most uuu. That formulation has (gt)\binom{g}{t}(tg​) constraints, which is unwieldy once t>1t>1t>1 and ggg is large. Beale's alternative works with the nonlinear objective directly, and he needs a test that tells him when the current basic solution is already optimal. This mission formalizes that test, Theorem 1 of the paper.

The objective reappears in later work under other names: the sum of the kkk largest components of a vector, the "top-kkk sum", and kkk times the conditional value-at-risk of an empirical distribution. Beale's paper is an early source for its optimality conditions.

Setting

There are real variables zlz_lzl​, indexed by lll in a finite set (possibly empty), and u1,…,usu_1,\dots,u_su1​,…,us​. Two linear forms in these variables are given,

A=A0+∑lAlzl+∑f=1sφfuf,L0=c00+∑lc0lzl+∑f=1sθfuf,A=A_0+\sum_l A_l z_l+\sum_{f=1}^{s}\varphi_f u_f,\qquad L_0=c_{00}+\sum_l c_{0l} z_l+\sum_{f=1}^{s}\theta_f u_f,A=A0​+l∑​Al​zl​+f=1∑s​φf​uf​,L0​=c00​+l∑​c0l​zl​+f=1∑s​θf​uf​,

together with sss further forms

Lf=L0−uf(f=1,…,s).L_f=L_0-u_f\qquad(f=1,\dots,s).Lf​=L0​−uf​(f=1,…,s).

For an integer τ≥0\tau\ge0τ≥0 the objective is

C=A+(sum of the τ largest of L0,L1,…,Ls).C=A+\bigl(\text{sum of the }\tau\text{ largest of }L_0,L_1,\dots,L_s\bigr).C=A+(sum of the τ largest of L0​,L1​,…,Ls​).

The sum of the τ\tauτ largest of s+1s+1s+1 numbers is the largest total of any τ\tauτ of them. Ties do not make it ambiguous.

The feasible region is fixed by a set FFF of indices. The variables zlz_lzl​ with l∈Fl\in Fl∈F and all the ufu_fuf​ are free, and every other zlz_lzl​ is restricted to zl≥0z_l\ge0zl​≥0. At the origin z=0z=0z=0, u=0u=0u=0 all s+1s+1s+1 forms are equal to c00c_{00}c00​, so the origin is where CCC fails to be differentiable. In Beale's algorithm the origin is the current basic solution: the ufu_fuf​ measure how far the "borderline" forms sit from a chosen critical form, and AAA collects the forms that are certainly among the largest.

Write al=Al+τc0la_l=A_l+\tau c_{0l}al​=Al​+τc0l​ and wf=φf+τθfw_f=\varphi_f+\tau\theta_fwf​=φf​+τθf​.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (a), p. 179

For τ≤s\tau\le sτ≤s, CCC is minimized over the feasible region when all the zlz_lzl​ and ufu_fuf​ vanish if and only if

al≥0 for all l,al=0 for all l∈F,0≤wf≤1 for all f,τ−1≤∑f=1swf≤τ.(4.5)\begin{aligned} &a_l\ge0\ \text{for all } l, \qquad a_l=0\ \text{for all } l\in F,\\ &0\le w_f\le1\ \text{for all } f,\qquad \tau-1\le\sum_{f=1}^{s}w_f\le\tau . \end{aligned}\tag{4.5}​al​≥0 for all l,al​=0 for all l∈F,0≤wf​≤1 for all f,τ−1≤f=1∑s​wf​≤τ.​(4.5)

"Minimized" means a global minimum: C(0,0)≤C(z,u)C(0,0)\le C(z,u)C(0,0)≤C(z,u) at every feasible point.

Milestones

  1. Convexity (p. 179). CCC is a convex function of (z,u)(z,u)(z,u) for τ≤s+1\tau\le s+1τ≤s+1.
  2. Descent rules (second half of Theorem 1 (a), p. 179). When a condition of (4.5) fails, a stated move of one variable, or of all ufu_fuf​ together, lowers CCC below C(0,0)C(0,0)C(0,0) for every small enough step. There are six moves: zl↑z_l\uparrowzl​↑ if al<0a_l<0al​<0; zl↓z_l\downarrowzl​↓ if al>0a_l>0al​>0 and l∈Fl\in Fl∈F; uf↑u_f\uparrowuf​↑ if wf<0w_f<0wf​<0; uf↓u_f\downarrowuf​↓ if wf>1w_f>1wf​>1; all uf↑u_f\uparrowuf​↑ if ∑wf<τ−1\sum w_f<\tau-1∑wf​<τ−1; all uf↓u_f\downarrowuf​↓ if ∑wf>τ\sum w_f>\tau∑wf​>τ.
  3. The rearrangement identity (proof of Theorem 1 (a), p. 180). If 1≤τ≤s1\le\tau\le s1≤τ≤s, u1′≤⋯≤us′u'_1\le\dots\le u'_su1′​≤⋯≤us′​ and uτ′≤0u'_\tau\le0uτ′​≤0, then
C=A0+τc00+∑lalzl′+∑f=1τ(wf−1)(uf′−uτ′)+∑f=τ+1swf(uf′−uτ′)+{∑f=1swf−τ}uτ′.C=A_0+\tau c_{00}+\sum_l a_l z'_l+\sum_{f=1}^{\tau}(w_f-1)(u'_f-u'_\tau)+\sum_{f=\tau+1}^{s}w_f(u'_f-u'_\tau)+\Bigl\{\sum_{f=1}^{s}w_f-\tau\Bigr\}u'_\tau .C=A0​+τc00​+l∑​al​zl′​+f=1∑τ​(wf​−1)(uf′​−uτ′​)+f=τ+1∑s​wf​(uf′​−uτ′​)+{f=1∑s​wf​−τ}uτ′​.
  1. Theorem 1 (b) (p. 180). For τ=s+1\tau=s+1τ=s+1, the origin is a minimum if and only if (4.5) holds and wf=1w_f=1wf​=1 for every fff. Otherwise some value of ufu_fuf​ with the sign opposite to wf−1w_f-1wf​−1 lowers CCC.

Significance

Theorem 1 is the optimality test of Beale's simplex method for the sum-of-largest objective. The algorithm on pp. 178–179 changes nonbasic variables one at a time. When no single change is profitable it applies Theorem 1: either (4.5) holds and the current solution is optimal, or one of the six descent rules names the variable to change next. The test is exact even though the objective is not differentiable at the current point. It is a closed-form description of the subdifferential of a top-τ\tauτ sum at a point where all the forms tie. The theorem is also the base case of the multi-group generalization that Beale mentions on p. 181.

The paper proves Theorem 1 by hand. To our knowledge neither the theorem nor the rearrangement identity behind it has been formalized in any proof assistant. The mission produces:

  • a checked statement and proof of the test, including the degenerate cases τ=0\tau=0τ=0 and s=0s=0s=0, which the paper does not discuss separately;
  • the boundary case τ=s+1\tau=s+1τ=s+1;
  • a reusable Lean definition of the sum of the τ\tauτ largest entries of a finite real family, with its convexity.

Difficulty

Necessity, the "only if" direction, is the part the paper calls obvious: each descent rule changes CCC linearly for small steps. Two features still have to be handled explicitly. The step must be small only in rule-dependent ways, and the ordering of the forms changes along the moves of rules 4 and 6.

Sufficiency is where the work lies. The naive argument, "the directional derivative in every coordinate direction is non-negative, so the origin is a minimum", fails because CCC is not differentiable at the origin. Nonnegative derivatives along the coordinate axes do not control mixed directions in which several ufu_fuf​ move by different amounts, which reorders the forms. Which τ\tauτ forms are the largest then depends on the point, and the paper settles the configurations in which L0L_0L0​ is among the τ\tauτ largest by an informal appeal to the "essential symmetry" between L0L_0L0​ and the other forms. A formal proof cannot leave that appeal informal: the forms are parametrised relative to L0L_0L0​ (each LfL_fLf​ is L0−ufL_0-u_fL0​−uf​), so the symmetry is a change of variables that has to be written down and shown to preserve (4.5).

Formalization scope

  • Data. The variables are z : Fin r → ℝ (any r, including 000) and u : Fin s → ℝ. The paper's ufu_fuf​ for f=1,…,sf=1,\dots,sf=1,…,s is Lean's u f for f=0,…,s−1f=0,\dots,s-1f=0,…,s−1. The coefficients (A0,Al,φf,c00,c0l,θf)(A_0,A_l,\varphi_f,c_{00},c_{0l},\theta_f)(A0​,Al​,φf​,c00​,c0l​,θf​) form a structure Forms r s.
  • Forms. The family L0,…,LsL_0,\dots,L_sL0​,…,Ls​ is Fin (s+1) → ℝ, with index 000 for L0L_0L0​ and index f.succ for L0−ufL_0-u_fL0​−uf​. The free set FFF is a Finset (Fin r), and τ\tauτ is a natural number cast to R\mathbb RR wherever it multiplies a coefficient.
  • Sum of the largest. sumLargest τ v is the maximum over τ\tauτ-element subsets SSS of ∑i∈Svi\sum_{i\in S}v_i∑i∈S​vi​ (Finset.sup' over powersetCard). It is the junk 000 for τ\tauτ larger than the number of entries, a case no statement uses.
  • Minimality. "Minimized when all variables vanish" is the global statement C(0,0)≤C(z,u)C(0,0)\le C(z,u)C(0,0)≤C(z,u) for all (z,u)(z,u)(z,u) with zl≥0z_l\ge0zl​≥0 for l∉Fl\notin Fl∈/F. It is not a local minimum, and the sign constraints on restricted zlz_lzl​ are kept: they are why the first condition of (4.5) is an inequality.
  • Descent. "CCC can be decreased by moving xxx from zero" is a strict decrease for all step sizes in some interval (0,ε)(0,\varepsilon)(0,ε), with every other variable at zero.
  • No trivialization. The goal is an equivalence with no hypothesis beyond τ≤s\tau\le sτ≤s. Neither direction can be satisfied vacuously, and the cases τ=0\tau=0τ=0 and s=0s=0s=0 are included, as on the page.
  • Added hypotheses. The rearrangement milestone assumes τ≥1\tau\ge1τ≥1, because the paper's uτ′u'_\tauuτ′​ does not exist at τ=0\tau=0τ=0. Its second line uses c0lc_{0l}c0l​ where the page misprints clc_lcl​.

Needed infrastructure:

  • basic lemmas on sumLargest: its value at a constant family, at a family sorted by a monotone shift, and under adding a common constant;
  • the change of variables behind the paper's symmetry between L0L_0L0​ and the other forms.

These lemmas are reusable for any top-kkk-sum or empirical-CVaR objective. Contributions are welcome at any level: lemmas about sumLargest, any of the milestones, or an alternative sufficiency proof through convexity and one-sided directional derivatives.

Not in scope: the pivoting rules (4.2)–(4.4), the degeneracy discussion on pp. 180–181, and the multi-group generalization, which the paper says is "cumbersome to state" and does not state.

Selected references

  • E. M. L. Beale, On Minimizing a Convex Function Subject to Linear Inequalities, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 17(2), 173–184, 1955. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2517-6161.1955.tb00191.x
  • G. B. Dantzig, A. Orden and P. Wolfe, The generalized simplex method for minimizing a linear form under linear inequality restraints, Pacific Journal of Mathematics 5(2), 183–195, 1955. https://doi.org/10.2140/pjm.1955.5.183
  • R. T. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev, Optimization of conditional value-at-risk, Journal of Risk 2(3), 21–41, 2000. https://doi.org/10.21314/JOR.2000.038
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Operations ResearchOptimizationProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers 1: Threshold Purchasing Policies under Contingent PricingResearch Paper

Motivation

Retailers of fashion and seasonal goods sell at a premium price early in the season and mark the remaining stock down later. When customers anticipate the markdown, some of them who would buy at the premium price instead wait, trading a lower price against the risk that the item sells out and against the decline of their own valuation over the season. How forward-looking ("strategic") customers respond to a markdown policy is the first question any model of such pricing has to answer, because the seller's optimal prices depend on it.

Aviv and Pazgal (MSOM 2008) model a seller with a fixed inventory, Poisson arrivals of customers with heterogeneous, exponentially declining valuations, and two pricing regimes: contingent pricing, where the discount depends on the inventory left at the markdown time, and announced fixed discounts. The first step of their analysis of contingent pricing is Theorem 1: whatever the other customers do, a customer's best response is a threshold rule on his current valuation, with a threshold that rises as the markdown approaches. Their numerical study of equilibria and of the value of price commitment (§§4.2–7) is built on this reduction.

Setting

A seller holds QQQ units over a season [0,H][0, H][0,H] split at a fixed time TTT with 0<T≤H0 < T \le H0<T≤H. On [0,T)[0, T)[0,T) the premium price p1p_1p1​ applies. At time TTT the seller observes the remaining inventory QT∈{0,1,…,Q}Q_T \in \{0, 1, \dots, Q\}QT​∈{0,1,…,Q} and charges the discount menu price p2(QT)p_2(Q_T)p2​(QT​), where p2(q)≤p1p_2(q) \le p_1p2​(q)≤p1​ for q=1,…,Qq = 1, \dots, Qq=1,…,Q. Customer jjj has a base valuation VjV_jVj​ and valuation Vj(t)=Vje−αtV_j(t) = V_j e^{-\alpha t}Vj​(t)=Vj​e−αt at time ttt, with a common decline factor α≥0\alpha \ge 0α≥0.

A customer arriving at t<Tt < Tt<T either buys immediately at p1p_1p1​ or waits until TTT, when he requests a unit if the discounted price leaves him a nonnegative surplus. Waiting is uncertain in two ways: the remaining inventory QTQ_TQT​ is random, and when fewer units remain than customers request them, units are rationed at random. A belief is a probability mass function π\piπ of QTQ_TQT​ on {0,…,Q}\{0, \dots, Q\}{0,…,Q} together with allocation probabilities a(q)=Pr⁡{A∣QT=q}∈[0,1]a(q) = \Pr\{\mathcal A \mid Q_T = q\} \in [0,1]a(q)=Pr{A∣QT​=q}∈[0,1], a(0)=0a(0) = 0a(0)=0, where A\mathcal AA is the event that the customer is allocated a unit. It is determined by the other customers' strategies, which are arbitrary.

With δ=e−α(T−t)\delta = e^{-\alpha(T-t)}δ=e−α(T−t), the expected surplus of waiting of a customer with current valuation ψ\psiψ is

Wt(ψ)=EQT ⁣[max⁡{ψδ−p2(QT),0}⋅1{A∣QT}]=∑q=0Qπ(q) a(q) max⁡{ψδ−p2(q),0}.W_t(\psi) = \mathrm E_{Q_T}\!\left[\max\{\psi\delta - p_2(Q_T), 0\}\cdot \mathbf 1\{\mathcal A \mid Q_T\}\right] = \sum_{q=0}^{Q}\pi(q)\,a(q)\,\max\{\psi\delta - p_2(q), 0\}.Wt​(ψ)=EQT​​[max{ψδ−p2​(QT​),0}⋅1{A∣QT​}]=q=0∑Q​π(q)a(q)max{ψδ−p2​(q),0}.

The paper's purchase rule (p. 344): buy immediately iff the current surplus V(t)−p1V(t) - p_1V(t)−p1​ is nonnegative and at least Wt(V(t))W_t(V(t))Wt​(V(t)).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 and Corollary 1

Assume p1≥0p_1 \ge 0p1​≥0, and α>0\alpha > 0α>0 or ∑qπ(q)a(q)<1\sum_q \pi(q)a(q) < 1∑q​π(q)a(q)<1. For every t∈[0,T)t \in [0,T)t∈[0,T) the equation

ψ−p1=Wt(ψ)(2)\psi - p_1 = W_t(\psi) \tag{2}ψ−p1​=Wt​(ψ)(2)

has a unique solution ψ(t)≥p1\psi(t) \ge p_1ψ(t)≥p1​; a customer arriving at ttt buys immediately under the purchase rule if and only if V(t)≥ψ(t)V(t) \ge \psi(t)V(t)≥ψ(t); and the threshold function ψ:[0,T)→[p1,∞)\psi : [0, T) \to [p_1, \infty)ψ:[0,T)→[p1​,∞) is nondecreasing in ttt.

Milestones

  1. The right-hand side of (2) is nonnegative and nondecreasing in ψ\psiψ, with increments bracketed by δ Pr⁡{ψδ≥p2(QT),A}\delta\,\Pr\{\psi\delta \ge p_2(Q_T), \mathcal A\}δPr{ψδ≥p2​(QT​),A} at the two endpoints, and this slope is below one.
  2. Equation (2) has a unique solution ψ≥p1\psi \ge p_1ψ≥p1​.

Significance

Theorem 1 reduces a customer's strategy, a function of arrival time and valuation, to one threshold function ψ\psiψ on [0,T)[0, T)[0,T). The segment sizes ΛI,ΛS,ΛW,ΛL\Lambda_I, \Lambda_S, \Lambda_W, \Lambda_LΛI​,ΛS​,ΛW​,ΛL​ of §4.2, the seller's menu problem (3), the equilibrium iteration (4) and the closed form of Proposition 2 are all written in terms of ψ\psiψ; without Theorem 1 none of them is defined. Corollary 1, that the threshold rises toward the markdown, is what the paper calls "useful in our analyses below"; the customer segments of Figure 1 are drawn with it.

The result is proved in the paper, with a short appendix argument. No machine-checked version exists. The mission produces a formal statement and proof of the reduction for an arbitrary belief, which fixes the exact hypotheses under which it holds: the paper's slope bound needs either valuation decline (α>0\alpha > 0α>0) or imperfect availability, and the monotonicity of the threshold needs a nonnegative premium price. A formal WtW_tWt​ and threshold are the starting point for formalizing the equilibrium and pricing results of the paper.

Difficulty

The mathematics is one-dimensional. The difficulty is in stating it exactly. WtW_tWt​ is piecewise linear with a kink wherever ψδ\psi\deltaψδ crosses a menu price, so the paper's derivative is only a one-sided derivative, and the uniqueness argument has to use increments. The paper's bound "slope <1< 1<1" is false when α=0\alpha = 0α=0 and a unit is allocated with certainty; then (2) has either no finite solution or a half-line of them. The threshold's monotonicity in ttt rests on Wt(ψ)W_t(\psi)Wt​(ψ) increasing in ttt for fixed ψ\psiψ, which needs ψ≥0\psi \ge 0ψ≥0; with a negative premium price the threshold can decrease. The naive reading of "optimal to use a threshold" as an abstract fixed-point fact about any monotone function with slope below one discards the model and is not the goal.

Formalization scope

Lean namespace SeasonalPricing.Contingent. Time, prices and valuations are real numbers. The belief is a pair pmf alloc : ℕ → ℝ restricted to {0, …, Q} (IsInventoryBelief), not a random variable on a probability space; only the law of (QT,1{A})(Q_T, \mathbf 1\{\mathcal A\})(QT​,1{A}) enters (2). The menu is p2 : ℕ → ℝ with p2(q)≤p1p_2(q) \le p_1p2​(q)≤p1​ required on {1,…,Q}\{1, \dots, Q\}{1,…,Q} only; p2(0)p_2(0)p2​(0) never matters because a(0)=0a(0) = 0a(0)=0. The belief does not depend on the arrival time, as in Eq. (4) of the paper. waitingSurplus is WtW_tWt​ with e−α(T−t)e^{-\alpha(T-t)}e−α(T−t) written Real.exp (-(α * (T - t))); buysNow is the purchase rule, stated on the current valuation V(t)V(t)V(t).

Readings of the paper's words:

  • "the unique solution" of (2): existence and uniqueness of a real ψ≥p1\psi \ge p_1ψ≥p1​ (∃!). The paper's "ψ∈[p1,∞]\psi \in [p_1, \infty]ψ∈[p1​,∞]" includes ∞\infty∞ only in the case excluded by the added hypothesis.
  • "it is optimal to base purchasing decisions on a threshold function": the purchase rule of p. 344 holds exactly when V(t)≥ψ(t)V(t) \ge \psi(t)V(t)≥ψ(t).
  • "derivative … <1< 1<1": a two-sided bracket on increments of WtW_tWt​, with right slope δPr⁡{ψδ≥p2(QT),A}\delta\Pr\{\psi\delta \ge p_2(Q_T), \mathcal A\}δPr{ψδ≥p2​(QT​),A}, below one.
  • "increasing" (Corollary 1): nondecreasing (MonotoneOn), since ψ\psiψ is constant on an initial interval whenever no menu price is reachable (p. 347).

Added hypotheses, both named in the statements: α>0\alpha > 0α>0 or ∑qπ(q)a(q)<1\sum_q \pi(q)a(q) < 1∑q​π(q)a(q)<1, the one hypothesis the paper's proof uses without stating it; and p1≥0p_1 \ge 0p1​≥0, the model's convention that prices are nonnegative. Only the branch 0≤t<T0 \le t < T0≤t<T of the threshold θ\thetaθ is stated: for t≥Tt \ge Tt≥T the paper's θ(t)=p2\theta(t) = p_2θ(t)=p2​ is the model's rule for late customers. The belief enters through the explicit sum; a formalization with an unspecified monotone WWW, or with ψ(t)\psi(t)ψ(t) defined by choice inside a definition, is not the target.

No new library is needed beyond finite sums, max and Real.exp. A lemma on unique roots of ψ↦ψ−c−f(ψ)\psi \mapsto \psi - c - f(\psi)ψ↦ψ−c−f(ψ) for fff with increments bounded by k(ψ′−ψ)k(\psi' - \psi)k(ψ′−ψ), k<1k < 1k<1, is reusable. Proofs of the milestones and the goal, in any order, are welcome.

Selected references

  • Y. Aviv and A. Pazgal, Optimal Pricing of Seasonal Products in the Presence of Forward-Looking Consumers, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 10(3):339–359, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.1070.0183
  • X. Su, Intertemporal Pricing with Strategic Customer Behavior, Management Science 53(5):726–741, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0667
  • G. Gallego and G. van Ryzin, Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons, Management Science 40(8):999–1020, 1994. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.8.999
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Operations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies II: Subjective Events Let Both Zero-Sum Players Beat the ValueResearch Paper

Motivation

In a two-person zero-sum game with objective randomization, whatever one player gains the other loses: the value vvv of the game is the most player 1 can guarantee and the least player 2 can hold him to, and no arrangement between the players can give player 1 more than vvv and player 2 more than −v-v−v at the same time. Aumann's 1974 paper (doi:10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8) replaces objective coin flips by ordinary events of the world, about which players may hold different subjective probabilities and may be differently informed. Sect. 6 of the paper shows that this breaks the zero-sum logic: once the players disagree about the probability of events they can observe, a zero-sum game becomes, in expectation as each player computes it, a game in which both can gain.

The phenomenon is the game-theoretic form of betting between people who disagree: two players with different beliefs can each expect to profit from the same wager. Aumann's proposition identifies exactly what information structure makes such an agreement possible inside a given zero-sum game, and shows by an example that informing only one player of a subjective event is not enough. The same paper introduced correlated equilibrium; the companion mission of this series formalizes its two-person result on subjective mixed equilibria (Proposition 5.1).

Setting

A game has a finite set N={1,…,n}N=\{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n} of players, a finite set SiS_iSi​ of pure strategies for each player, a finite set XXX of outcomes and an outcome function ggg from S=×i∈NSiS=\times_{i\in N}S_iS=×i∈N​Si​ onto XXX. Player iii has a utility ui:X→Ru_i:X\to\mathbb Rui​:X→R; write hi(a)=ui(g(a))h_i(a)=u_i(g(a))hi​(a)=ui​(g(a)) for a∈Sa\in Sa∈S.

A randomizing structure consists of a set Ω\OmegaΩ of states of the world with a σ\sigmaσ-field B\mathcal BB of events, a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field Ji⊆B\mathcal J_i\subseteq\mathcal BJi​⊆B for each player (the events regarding which iii is informed), and a probability measure pip_ipi​ on B\mathcal BB for each player (the subjective probability of iii). A strategy of iii is a map si:Ω→Sis_i:\Omega\to S_isi​:Ω→Si​ whose level sets lie in Ji\mathcal J_iJi​. For a profile sss of strategies, player iii's payoff is computed under his own beliefs:

Hi(s)=∫Ωhi(s(ω)) dpi(ω).H_i(s)=\int_\Omega h_i\big(s(\omega)\big)\,dp_i(\omega).Hi​(s)=∫Ω​hi​(s(ω))dpi​(ω).

An event AAA is objective if all pi(A)p_i(A)pi​(A) coincide, and subjective otherwise. It is iii-secret if A∈JiA\in\mathcal J_iA∈Ji​ and every other player jjj regards AAA as independent of every event in the σ\sigmaσ-field generated by the Jk\mathcal J_kJk​, k≠ik\ne ik=i. It is public if it lies in every Ji\mathcal J_iJi​. A measure is non-atomic on a σ\sigmaσ-field R\mathcal RR if every event of R\mathcal RR of positive measure contains an event of R\mathcal RR of strictly smaller positive measure; a roulette is a sub-σ\sigmaσ-field of B\mathcal BB on which every pjp_jpj​ is non-atomic, and a public roulette is a roulette of public events. Throughout, Assumption II holds: every player iii has a σ\sigmaσ-field Ri\mathcal R_iRi​ of iii-secret events on which every pjp_jpj​ is non-atomic.

The game is two-person zero-sum if n=2n=2n=2 and u1(x)+u2(x)=0u_1(x)+u_2(x)=0u1​(x)+u2​(x)=0 for all x∈Xx\in Xx∈X. Its value vvv is player 1's payoff F1(σ)=∑a∈Sh1(a)σ1(a1)σ2(a2)F_1(\sigma)=\sum_{a\in S}h_1(a)\sigma_1(a_1)\sigma_2(a_2)F1​(σ)=∑a∈S​h1​(a)σ1​(a1​)σ2​(a2​) at a Nash equilibrium σ\sigmaσ of the classical mixed extension; by the minimax theorem all such equilibria give the payoff pair (v,−v)(v,-v)(v,−v).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 6.1 (p. 80)

Let GGG be a two-person zero-sum game with value vvv, and assume

∃ x,y∈X: u1(x)>v>u1(y),(6.2)\exists\,x,y\in X:\ u_1(x)>v>u_1(y),\tag{6.2}∃x,y∈X: u1​(x)>v>u1​(y),(6.2) for each i∈{1,2} there is Bi∈Ji with p1(Bi)≠p2(Bi).(6.3)\text{for each } i\in\{1,2\} \text{ there is } B_i\in\mathcal J_i \text{ with } p_1(B_i)\ne p_2(B_i).\tag{6.3}for each i∈{1,2} there is Bi​∈Ji​ with p1​(Bi​)=p2​(Bi​).(6.3)

Then there is a pair s=(s1,s2)s=(s_1,s_2)s=(s1​,s2​) of strategies with

H1(s)>v,H2(s)>−v.(6.4)H_1(s)>v,\qquad H_2(s)>-v.\tag{6.4}H1​(s)>v,H2​(s)>−v.(6.4)

The pair is not an equilibrium: it is an agreement that each player, by his own beliefs, strictly prefers to playing the game.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 7.1 (p. 81): in a roulette R\mathcal RR there is, for every α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] and events B1,…,BlB^1,\dots,B^lB1,…,Bl, an objective event A∈RA\in\mathcal RA∈R with p(A)=αp(A)=\alphap(A)=α, independent of each BkB^kBk.
  2. Lemma 4.2 (p. 77): for every iii, event BBB and α∈[0,1]\alpha\in[0,1]α∈[0,1] there is an objective iii-secret event of probability α\alphaα independent of BBB.
  3. Lemma 4.4 (p. 77): if there is a public roulette, the same holds with "public" in place of "iii-secret".
  4. Remark after Proposition 6.1 (p. 80): the conclusion (6.4) under (6.2) and
there is a public subjective event B and there is a public roulette,(6.5)\text{there is a public subjective event } B \text{ and there is a public roulette,}\tag{6.5}there is a public subjective event B and there is a public roulette,(6.5)

a special case of the goal in which the players share both the subjective event and the correlating device.

Significance

The proposition shows that the value of a zero-sum game is a property of objective randomization, not of the game alone. With subjective randomization available to both players, the conflict of a zero-sum game can be resolved by agreement, so the classical prediction (each player receives his security level) is not robust to disagreement about probabilities. The counterexample on p. 81 (the game with matrix rows (1,1)(1,1)(1,1) and (2,0)(2,0)(2,0)) shows that hypothesis (6.3) is needed for both players, and the paper notes that in any specific game only one player need use a subjective strategy, though which one depends on the game.

Lemmas 4.2, 4.4 and 7.1 are the model's basic existence results for objective randomization: every probability can be realised by an event that is secret (or public) and independent of finitely many given events. They are used throughout the paper, including in the companion mission.

The paper's proofs are published and accepted; none of these statements has a machine-checked proof. This mission produces the formal statements and invites complete proofs; Lemma 7.1 requires Lyapunov's convexity theorem for finite-dimensional non-atomic vector measures, which is not in Mathlib.

Difficulty

The central difficulty for the goal is that (6.3) gives each player only some subjective event, of unknown size and in his own information field, while (6.4) requires strict gains for both players under two different measures at once. The obvious approach, betting on one subjective event, gives one player a strict gain but, when that event is not known to the other player, the other player cannot condition his choice on it; the example on p. 81 shows that one-sided information genuinely fails. Both inequalities must be arranged simultaneously, and the strategies must remain measurable with respect to each player's own information.

For Lemma 7.1, a non-atomic scalar measure takes every value in [0,p(Ω)][0,p(\Omega)][0,p(Ω)], but the lemma asks for one event with prescribed values under nnn measures and nlnlnl further measures simultaneously; this is the range of a vector measure, not of a scalar one.

Formalization scope

  • Players of the zero-sum game are 0, 1 : Fin 2 (the paper's 1, 2). S 0, S 1, X are finite types and g is surjective.
  • B\mathcal BB is the σ-field mΩ, an explicit parameter of RandomizingStructure; Ji\mathcal J_iJi​ are σ-fields below it, and each pip_ipi​ is a probability measure on B\mathcal BB. Probabilities are ℝ≥0∞-valued; "probability α\alphaα" is ENNReal.ofReal α with 0≤α≤10\le\alpha\le10≤α≤1.
  • Non-atomicity is the standard notion on a sub-σ-field, not Mathlib's NoAtoms, which would trivialize the roulette hypotheses.
  • HiH_iHi​ is a Bochner integral under pip_ipi​; for strategies with finitely many values it is the finite sum ∑api{s=a}hi(a)\sum_a p_i\{s=a\}h_i(a)∑a​pi​{s=a}hi​(a).
  • The value vvv is not a free real: IsValue u g v requires v=F1(σ)v=F_1(\sigma)v=F1​(σ) for a Nash equilibrium σ\sigmaσ of the mixed extension (AGT.IsMixedNash from the published definition agt_games). A free vvv would make the goal false. The minimax theorem is the published AGT.zero_sum_minimax.
  • Assumption II is a hypothesis of every theorem, including those whose proofs do not need it.
  • The conclusion of the goal and of the Remark asks for strategies, not for an equilibrium point, and does not require the strategies to be independent or objective.

Needed infrastructure: Lyapunov's theorem (or a direct argument for the finite-dimensional case), manipulation of σ-fields generated by families of sub-σ-fields, and computation of HiH_iHi​ for strategies with finitely many values. Lyapunov's theorem is reusable far beyond this mission. Contributions of any milestone are welcome.

Selected references

  • R. J. Aumann, Subjectivity and Correlation in Randomized Strategies, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1 (1974) 67–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90037-8
  • A. Lyapunov, Sur les fonctions-vecteurs complètement additives, Bull. Acad. Sci. URSS Sér. Math. 4 (1940) 465–478.
  • J. von Neumann, Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele, Mathematische Annalen 100 (1928) 295–320. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01448847
  • J. Nash, Non-cooperative games, Annals of Mathematics 54 (1951) 286–295. https://doi.org/10.2307/1969529
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Mechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach 2: The Top Trading Cycles Mechanism with Type-Specific Quotas Is Strategy-ProofResearch Paper

Motivation

Many US school districts assign children to public schools centrally. Each family ranks the schools. Each school ranks the children by priority, which is set by state or local law (siblings, walking distance, a lottery). A procedure then turns these rankings into an assignment. Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez (Columbia Economics Discussion Paper 0203-18, 2003; published in the American Economic Review 93(3), 2003) cast this as a mechanism design problem. They showed that the mechanisms then in use in Boston, Columbus and Minneapolis gave families reasons to misreport their preferences. They proposed two alternatives: the student-optimal stable mechanism of Gale and Shapley, and a school-choice version of Shapley and Scarf's top trading cycles (TTC) mechanism.

Many districts also operate under controlled choice: court-ordered or voluntary rules that keep the racial or ethnic composition of each school within bounds. In Minneapolis, for instance, a 100-seat school could admit at most 75 majority and at most 55 minority students (paper, Section III). Such rules are implemented as type-specific quotas. Section III.B of the paper modifies TTC to respect these quotas. It proves that the modified mechanism keeps both properties that recommend TTC: it wastes nothing beyond what the quotas force (constrained efficiency, Proposition 6), and truth-telling is a dominant strategy (strategy-proofness, Proposition 7). This mission formalizes those two results.

Setting

There is a finite set III of students and a finite set SSS of schools. School sss has a capacity qsq_sqs​, and the total number of seats suffices: ∣I∣≤∑sqs|I|\le\sum_s q_s∣I∣≤∑s​qs​. Each student iii has a strict preference over all schools, encoded as a ranking Pi:S→{0,…,∣S∣−1}P_i : S\to\{0,\dots,|S|-1\}Pi​:S→{0,…,∣S∣−1} with rank 000 the favourite. Each school sss has a strict priority ranking over all students, with rank 000 the highest priority. Each student belongs to exactly one type τ(i)\tau(i)τ(i), and school sss has a type quota qstq_s^tqst​ for each type ttt.

An assignment ν\nuν gives each student a school or nothing (∅\varnothing∅, worse than every school). It satisfies the controlled choice constraints if every school sss receives at most qsq_sqs​ students, and at most qstq_s^tqst​ students of each type ttt. An assignment μ\muμ is constrained efficient if no assignment satisfying the constraints makes every student weakly better off and some student strictly better off.

The top trading cycles mechanism with type-specific quotas, TTCq\mathrm{TTC}^qTTCq, runs in steps. Each school keeps a counter csc_scs​ (initially qsq_sqs​) and one type counter cstc_s^tcst​ for each type (initially qstq_s^tqst​). A school is removed when csc_scs​ reaches zero. At each step:

  • every remaining student points to her favourite remaining school with room for her type, that is, with cs>0c_s>0cs​>0 and csτ(i)>0c_s^{\tau(i)}>0csτ(i)​>0;
  • every remaining school points to its highest-priority remaining student, whatever her type;
  • every student on a cycle of this graph is assigned the school she points to and leaves;
  • that school's counter and its counter for her type each drop by one.

A direct mechanism is strategy-proof if no student can ever gain by misreporting her preference, whatever the others report.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 7 (p. 23)

For every student iii, every profile PPP of announced preferences and every alternative report QiQ_iQi​,

TTCq(Qi,P−i)(i)=s′  ⟹  TTCq(P)(i)=s with Pi(s)≤Pi(s′).\mathrm{TTC}^q(Q_i,P_{-i})(i)=s' \implies \mathrm{TTC}^q(P)(i)=s \text{ with } P_i(s)\le P_i(s').TTCq(Qi​,P−i​)(i)=s′⟹TTCq(P)(i)=s with Pi​(s)≤Pi​(s′).

This holds for all capacities without shortage, all quotas, all types and all priorities. The priorities are fixed data, not reported.

Milestones

  1. Section III.B, Step 1 (p. 22). At every step there is at least one cycle, after the convention below has removed the students who cannot point.
  2. The Lemma (Appendix, pp. 28–29; declared valid for the modified mechanism on p. 30). Fix the other students' reports, and suppose student iii is still present at the beginning of a step under two different reports of hers. Then the two runs have the same remaining students and the same counters at that point.
  3. Proposition 6 (p. 23). TTCq(P)\mathrm{TTC}^q(P)TTCq(P) satisfies the controlled choice constraints and is constrained efficient with respect to PPP.

Significance

Strategy-proofness is what lets a district publish a simple instruction: rank the schools in your true order. A strategy-proof mechanism does not reward families who can afford to gather information and game the system. Proposition 7 shows that this guarantee survives the addition of flexible diversity quotas, which many districts are legally bound to impose. Proposition 6 shows that the quotas cost nothing beyond the losses they themselves cause. Both results were proved in 2003 by pen and paper. The published proof of Proposition 7 is a short adaptation of the proof of Proposition 4 (strategy-proofness of plain TTC). It rests on a lemma about how the algorithm's intermediate states depend on one student's report.

To our knowledge neither result has a machine-checked proof. The related platform theorem AGT.ttc_strategyproof concerns the Shapley–Scarf housing market, where every agent owns one house and the mechanism selects the core. It does not cover capacities, priorities or quotas. A formal proof here would check the adaptation that the paper leaves to the reader, and would give a reusable formal model of cycle-clearing allocation algorithms with multiple counters.

Difficulty

The algorithm clears all cycles of a step at once, and a student's report changes the graph at every step she is present. The paper's argument compares two whole runs of the algorithm, under the true report and under a misreport, step by step. That comparison needs precise control of which parts of the state a single student's report can influence, and when. A local argument about one step does not suffice. The student's outcome can depend on cycles that form several steps after the two runs could first have diverged.

With quotas, the pointing graph also depends on the type counters. A school can be present but closed to one type, and a school points to its best remaining student even when it has no room for her type. The comparison must therefore track the type counters as well as the set of remaining schools. Efficiency cannot be read off step by step against unrestricted matchings either: every competing assignment must satisfy both the capacity and the quota constraints.

Formalization scope

Students, schools and types are finite types; no nonemptiness is assumed. Preferences and priorities are bijective rankings onto Fin, so strictness is built in. Rank 000 is the favourite or the highest priority. The no-shortage condition ∣I∣≤∑sqs|I|\le\sum_s q_s∣I∣≤∑s​qs​ appears in every theorem, as the standing assumption of Section I. No relation between qsq_sqs​ and qstq_s^tqst​ is imposed, which generalises the paper.

The algorithm is a concrete, total definition: a state with remaining students, counters, type counters and partial assignments, a step map that clears all cycles simultaneously, and ∣I∣|I|∣I∣ iterations. run … t is the state at the beginning of the paper's Step t+1t+1t+1.

The paper's step is undefined when a remaining student has no remaining school with room for her type. She cannot point, and the promised cycle may not exist. The formalization adopts one convention: at the beginning of each step, such a stuck student is removed unassigned, and her outcome is ∅\varnothing∅, ranked below every school. Counters only decrease, so a stuck student stays stuck. Whenever nobody gets stuck, the algorithm is exactly the paper's, and when every quota is at least the capacity it is plain TTC. The goal and Proposition 6 are stated for assignments that may leave students unassigned. When everyone is assigned, they coincide with the paper's statements over matchings.

The formalization does not add a hypothesis that the run never gets stuck. Such a hypothesis would restrict the algorithm's own behaviour and could make the theorems vacuous. Nor may strategy-proofness be weakened to comparisons at the truthful profile only: the others' reports and the misreport are arbitrary.

Contributions welcome: invariants of the step map (counters bounded by the initial values, assigned students leave for good), the cycle-existence lemma for functional graphs on finite sets, and the comparison lemma. These pieces are shared with the plain-TTC mission of this series.

Selected references

  • Atila Abdulkadiroğlu and Tayfun Sönmez, School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach, Columbia University Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 0203-18, 2003. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8057T27
  • Atila Abdulkadiroğlu and Tayfun Sönmez, School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach, American Economic Review 93(3), 729–747, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322157061
  • Lloyd Shapley and Herbert Scarf, On Cores and Indivisibility, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1(1), 23–37, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90033-0
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Mechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach 1: The Top Trading Cycles Mechanism Is Strategy-ProofResearch Paper

Motivation

Public school districts in many US cities let families rank schools and then assign seats by a centralized procedure. Each school has a limited number of seats, and state or local law gives some students priority at some schools, for example for a sibling already enrolled or for living within walking distance. Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez (Columbia Economics Discussion Paper 0203-18, 2003; published in the American Economic Review 93(3), 2003) framed this as a mechanism design problem and showed that the mechanism then used in Boston rewards families who misreport their preferences. They proposed two replacements with written proofs of their properties. This mission covers the second one, the top trading cycles mechanism, and its two properties: every outcome is Pareto efficient, and no student can gain by misreporting.

The paper drew on earlier results for simpler allocation problems:

  • 1974: Shapley and Scarf introduce housing markets and Gale's top trading cycles algorithm, in which each agent owns one house.
  • 1977: Roth and Postlewaite show the algorithm finds the unique core allocation of a housing market.
  • 1982: Roth proves the core mechanism for housing markets is strategy-proof.
  • 1999: Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez adapt the algorithm to house allocation with existing tenants and prove strategy-proofness.
  • 2000: Pápai introduces hierarchical exchange rules, a wider class that includes these mechanisms.
  • 2003: the paper formalized here extends the algorithm to schools with capacities and school-specific priorities (Propositions 3 and 4).

Setting

A school choice problem consists of a finite set III of students, a finite set SSS of schools, a capacity qs∈Nq_s \in \mathbb Nqs​∈N for each school, a strict preference PiP_iPi​ of each student over all schools, and a strict priority ordering ≻s\succ_s≻s​ of each school over all students. The standing assumption is that there is no shortage of seats:

∣I∣≤∑s∈Sqs.|I| \le \sum_{s\in S} q_s .∣I∣≤s∈S∑​qs​.

Preferences are rankings: Pi(s)∈{0,…,∣S∣−1}P_i(s)\in\{0,\dots,|S|-1\}Pi​(s)∈{0,…,∣S∣−1} is the rank of sss for student iii, with rank 000 the favourite. Priorities are rankings of students in the same way, with rank 000 the highest priority. A matching is a map μ:I→S\mu : I\to Sμ:I→S with #{i:μ(i)=s}≤qs\#\{i:\mu(i)=s\}\le q_s#{i:μ(i)=s}≤qs​ for every school sss. A matching μ\muμ is Pareto efficient if no other matching ν\nuν gives every student a weakly better school (Pi(ν(i))≤Pi(μ(i))P_i(\nu(i))\le P_i(\mu(i))Pi​(ν(i))≤Pi​(μ(i))) and some student a strictly better one.

A direct mechanism maps the reported preference profile, together with the fixed priorities and capacities, to a matching. It is strategy-proof if no student can ever obtain a school she strictly prefers by changing her own report while the others keep theirs.

The top trading cycles algorithm keeps a counter csc_scs​ of free seats at each school, starting at qsq_sqs​. A school is remaining while cs>0c_s>0cs​>0. At each step every remaining student points to her favourite remaining school, and every remaining school points to the remaining student with the highest priority for it. A cycle is a list (s1,i1,…,sk,ik)(s_1,i_1,\dots,s_k,i_k)(s1​,i1​,…,sk​,ik​) of distinct schools and students in which s1s_1s1​ points to i1i_1i1​, i1i_1i1​ points to s2s_2s2​, and so on, and iki_kik​ points to s1s_1s1​. Every student on a cycle is assigned the school she points to and is removed. Each school on a cycle loses one seat. All cycles present at a step are cleared at that same step. The top trading cycles mechanism TTC(q,≻,P)\mathrm{TTC}(q,\succ,P)TTC(q,≻,P) returns the resulting assignment.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 4 (strategy-proofness)

For all capacities with no shortage, all priorities, every profile PPP, every student iii and every alternative report QiQ_iQi​, student iii is assigned schools s=TTC(q,≻,P)(i)s = \mathrm{TTC}(q,\succ,P)(i)s=TTC(q,≻,P)(i) and s′=TTC(q,≻,(Qi,P−i))(i)s' = \mathrm{TTC}(q,\succ,(Q_i,P_{-i}))(i)s′=TTC(q,≻,(Qi​,P−i​))(i), and

Pi(s)≤Pi(s′).P_i(s) \le P_i(s') .Pi​(s)≤Pi​(s′).

Milestones

  1. At every step at which some student remains, there is a cycle (Section II.B, p. 15).
  2. After ∣I∣|I|∣I∣ steps no student remains, and the outcome is a matching (Section II.B, p. 16).
  3. Lemma (Appendix, pp. 28–29): if student iii is still remaining at the beginning of a step under two different reports of her own, the remaining students and the remaining schools at that point are the same under both reports.
  4. Proposition 3 (p. 17): the outcome is a Pareto efficient matching with respect to the reported profile.
  5. When all schools share one priority ordering π\piπ, the mechanism equals the serial dictatorship induced by π\piπ (Section II.B, p. 16).

Significance

Strategy-proofness means truthful reporting is a dominant strategy for every student. Families need no information about other families' reports. Under the Boston mechanism, ranking a popular school first can cost a student her priority at her second choice. Proposition 3 separates the top trading cycles mechanism from the Gale–Shapley student-optimal stable mechanism, which is also strategy-proof but can select Pareto dominated matchings.

The results are proved in the paper, in short prose arguments in its Appendix. To the best of our knowledge they have no machine-checked proof. The platform already has the housing-market version, AGT.ttc_strategyproof, but that statement covers one house per agent with the mechanism characterised as the core. Capacities, school priorities and the step-by-step algorithm are absent from it. This mission produces a checked account of the algorithm with capacities and counters, together with its termination and invariance properties.

Difficulty

The paper's argument moves from the step at which student iii leaves under one report to the step at which she leaves under another. It relies on the claim that the cycles formed before either step are unaffected by iii's report. Informally, iii is not on a cycle yet, so what she points to does not matter. Formally, "the same cycles form" requires comparing two runs of a simultaneous-clearing procedure step by step. At each step one has to show that the set of cycles, and hence the counters and the remaining schools, agree, even though iii points to different schools in the two runs. Reasoning about a single cycle at a time does not work, because the algorithm clears all cycles of a step at once. Termination is also not immediate: without the no-shortage condition the algorithm can leave students unassigned. Seats are counted with multiplicity, so a school can stay in the market for several steps.

Formalization scope

Everything lives in the namespace SchoolChoice.TTC. Students and schools are arbitrary finite types with decidable equality; the set of students may be empty. Capacities are q : S → ℕ, and a school of capacity zero is never remaining. A preference is a bijection S ≃ Fin (card S) and a priority is a bijection I ≃ Fin (card I), in both cases with rank 0 the best. Strictness and completeness of both therefore hold by construction, and every school is acceptable. A state of the algorithm consists of the remaining students, the counters and the assignments made so far. run q pri P t is the state after t completed steps, which is the beginning of the paper's Step t + 1. The mechanism ttc q pri P : I → Option S reads off the assignment after card I steps. Every theorem assumes card I ≤ ∑ s, q s.

The algorithm is a concrete, deterministic definition that clears all cycles at every step. The mechanism is not defined as "some Pareto efficient matching" or characterised by properties, since that would make Proposition 3 trivial. The goal asserts that both outcomes exist, so an unassigned outcome cannot satisfy it vacuously. The misreport, the other students' reports and the priorities are all universally quantified.

A complete development needs termination of the algorithm, a combinatorial account of the pointing graph (cycles in a finite functional graph), and the step-by-step invariance argument of the Lemma. The last two are reusable for the type-specific quota variant and for other trading-cycle mechanisms. Contributions of intermediate lemmas are welcome: counter invariants such as "the sum of the counters is at least the number of remaining students", monotonicity of the remaining sets, and the fact that a student on a cycle receives her favourite remaining school.

Selected references

  • Atila Abdulkadiroğlu and Tayfun Sönmez, School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach, Columbia University Department of Economics Discussion Paper No. 0203-18, 2003. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8057T27
  • Atila Abdulkadiroğlu and Tayfun Sönmez, School Choice: A Mechanism Design Approach, American Economic Review 93(3), 729–747, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803322157061
  • Lloyd Shapley and Herbert Scarf, On Cores and Indivisibility, Journal of Mathematical Economics 1(1), 23–37, 1974. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(74)90033-0
  • Alvin E. Roth and Andrew Postlewaite, Weak versus Strong Domination in a Market with Indivisible Goods, Journal of Mathematical Economics 4(2), 131–137, 1977. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4068(77)90004-0
  • Alvin E. Roth, Incentive Compatibility in a Market with Indivisible Goods, Economics Letters 9(2), 127–132, 1982. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1765(82)90003-9
  • Atila Abdulkadiroğlu and Tayfun Sönmez, House Allocation with Existing Tenants, Journal of Economic Theory 88(2), 233–260, 1999. https://doi.org/10.1006/jeth.1999.2553
  • Szilvia Pápai, Strategyproof Assignment by Hierarchical Exchange, Econometrica 68(6), 1403–1433, 2000. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00166
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Linear OptimizationOperations ResearchProbability·Captain: mikedeng1

A General Framework for the Study of Decentralized Distribution Systems: A Core Allocation Rule Whose Nash Equilibrium Is First-BestResearch Paper

Pooling inventory among independent retailers

Retailers that sell the same product can raise their joint profit by pooling: stock left over at one location is shipped to meet unmet demand at another, and stock can be held in shared warehouses until demand is known (Eppen 1979; Eppen and Schrage 1981). When the retailers are independent firms, pooling creates two questions at once. After demand is realized, the extra profit from shipping must be split in a way no group of retailers would reject. Before demand is realized, each retailer chooses its own stock, and that choice depends on how the split will be made. A split that is fair ex post may lead to stocking decisions that are poor for the system as a whole.

Anupindi, Bassok and Zemel (MSOM 2001) model the ex-post split as a cooperative game, the ex-ante stocking as a non-cooperative game, and ask whether a single allocation rule can serve both. Their framework is a standard reference for "coopetition" models in supply chains, where firms compete on stocking decisions and cooperate on redistribution.

Setting

There are retailers N={1,…,N}\mathcal N=\{1,\dots,N\}N={1,…,N} and warehouses W={1,…,W}\mathcal W=\{1,\dots,W\}W={1,…,W}. Retailer nnn has unit cost cnc_ncn​, revenue rnr_nrn​ and salvage value vnv_nvn​; warehouse www has purchasing cost cwc_wcw​ and salvage value vwv_wvw​. Shipping from location iii to retailer nnn costs ti,nt_{i,n}ti,n​ per unit, and a fraction βi,n∈[0,1]\beta_{i,n}\in[0,1]βi,n​∈[0,1] of the customers at nnn accept service from iii.

Before demand, retailer nnn chooses a position Z⃗n=(Xn,Y1,n,…,YW,n)\vec Z_n=(X_n,Y_{1,n},\dots,Y_{W,n})Zn​=(Xn​,Y1,n​,…,YW,n​): local stock XnX_nXn​ and claims Yw,nY_{w,n}Yw,n​ on warehouse stock, so warehouse www holds Yw=∑nYw,nY_w=\sum_nY_{w,n}Yw​=∑n​Yw,n​. A profile is [Z]=(Z⃗1,…,Z⃗N)[Z]=(\vec Z_1,\dots,\vec Z_N)[Z]=(Z1​,…,ZN​). Demand D⃗\vec DD is random with law μ\muμ. After demand, retailer nnn has local sales Sn=min⁡{Xn,Dn}S_n=\min\{X_n,D_n\}Sn​=min{Xn​,Dn​}, residual inventory Hn=max⁡{Xn−Dn,0}H_n=\max\{X_n-D_n,0\}Hn​=max{Xn​−Dn​,0} and residual demand En=max⁡{Dn−Xn,0}E_n=\max\{D_n-X_n,0\}En​=max{Dn​−Xn​,0}.

The snapshot allocation game SAG([Z],D⃗)([Z],\vec D)([Z],D) gives each coalition S⊆N\mathcal S\subseteq\mathcal NS⊆N the value WS∗([Z],D⃗)W^*_{\mathcal S}([Z],\vec D)WS∗​([Z],D): the optimal value of the linear program (6), which ships qi,nq_{i,n}qi,n​ units from i∈S∪Wi\in\mathcal S\cup\mathcal Wi∈S∪W to n∈Sn\in\mathcal Sn∈S at profit rn−vi−ti,nr_n-v_i-t_{i,n}rn​−vi​−ti,n​ per unit, subject to ∑nqi,n≤Hi\sum_nq_{i,n}\le H_i∑n​qi,n​≤Hi​, ∑nqw,n≤∑n∈SYw,n\sum_nq_{w,n}\le\sum_{n\in\mathcal S}Y_{w,n}∑n​qw,n​≤∑n∈S​Yw,n​ and ∑iqi,n/βi,n≤En\sum_iq_{i,n}/\beta_{i,n}\le E_n∑i​qi,n​/βi,n​≤En​. Its core is the set of allocations α\alphaα with ∑j∈Sαj≥WS∗\sum_{j\in\mathcal S}\alpha_j\ge W^*_{\mathcal S}∑j∈S​αj​≥WS∗​ for every S\mathcal SS and ∑j∈Nαj=WN∗\sum_{j\in\mathcal N}\alpha_j=W^*_{\mathcal N}∑j∈N​αj​=WN∗​ (7).

An allocation rule AR-mmm assigns surplus αnm([Z],D⃗)\alpha^m_n([Z],\vec D)αnm​([Z],D); retailer nnn earns

Pnm([Z],D⃗)=rnSn+vnHn−cnXn−∑w(cw−vw)Yw,n+αnm([Z],D⃗)(9)P^m_n([Z],\vec D)=r_nS_n+v_nH_n-c_nX_n-\sum_w(c_w-v_w)Y_{w,n}+\alpha^m_n([Z],\vec D)\qquad(9)Pnm​([Z],D)=rn​Sn​+vn​Hn​−cn​Xn​−w∑​(cw​−vw​)Yw,n​+αnm​([Z],D)(9)

and expects Jnm([Z])=ED⃗PnmJ^m_n([Z])=E_{\vec D}P^m_nJnm​([Z])=ED​Pnm​. A Nash equilibrium (10) is a profile at which no retailer gains by changing its own position. The first-best profile [Z]c∗[Z]^{c*}[Z]c∗ maximizes the expected centralized profit JNc([Z])=ED⃗PNc([Z],D⃗)J^c_{\mathcal N}([Z])=E_{\vec D}P^c_{\mathcal N}([Z],\vec D)JNc​([Z])=ED​PNc​([Z],D), where PNc=∑n[rnSn+vnHn−cnXn]−∑w(cw−vw)Yw+WN∗P^c_{\mathcal N}=\sum_n[r_nS_n+v_nH_n-c_nX_n]-\sum_w(c_w-v_w)Y_w+W^*_{\mathcal N}PNc​=∑n​[rn​Sn​+vn​Hn​−cn​Xn​]−∑w​(cw​−vw​)Yw​+WN∗​.

The fractional rule AR-f (11) pays αnf=θnPNc−[ rnSn+vnHn−cnXn−∑w(cw−vw)Yw,n]\alpha^f_n=\theta_nP^c_{\mathcal N}-[\,r_nS_n+v_nH_n-c_nX_n-\sum_w(c_w-v_w)Y_{w,n}]αnf​=θn​PNc​−[rn​Sn​+vn​Hn​−cn​Xn​−∑w​(cw​−vw​)Yw,n​] with fixed shares θn∈(0,1)\theta_n\in(0,1)θn​∈(0,1), ∑nθn=1\sum_n\theta_n=1∑n​θn​=1. The dual allocation (8) is αnd=νnHn+∑wγwYw,n+δnEn\alpha^d_n=\nu_nH_n+\sum_w\gamma_wY_{w,n}+\delta_nE_nαnd​=νn​Hn​+∑w​γw​Yw,n​+δn​En​ for optimal dual prices (ν,γ,δ)(\nu,\gamma,\delta)(ν,γ,δ) of (6) for N\mathcal NN. The modified rule AR-c is αnc([Z],D⃗)=αnf([Z],D⃗)+wn([Z]c∗,D⃗)\alpha^c_n([Z],\vec D)=\alpha^f_n([Z],\vec D)+w_n([Z]^{c*},\vec D)αnc​([Z],D)=αnf​([Z],D)+wn​([Z]c∗,D) with wn=αnd([Z]c∗,⋅)−αnf([Z]c∗,⋅)w_n=\alpha^d_n([Z]^{c*},\cdot)-\alpha^f_n([Z]^{c*},\cdot)wn​=αnd​([Z]c∗,⋅)−αnf​([Z]c∗,⋅).

Formalization targets

Goal: Corollary 5.1 (p. 361)

For a first-best profile [Z]c∗[Z]^{c*}[Z]c∗ and a measurable choice of dual prices at [Z]c∗[Z]^{c*}[Z]c∗,

[Z]c∗ is a pure Nash equilibrium under AR-c, and  αc([Z]c∗,D⃗)∈Core⁡(SAG([Z]c∗,D⃗))  ∀D⃗,[Z]^{c*}\ \text{is a pure Nash equilibrium under AR-c, and}\ \ \alpha^c([Z]^{c*},\vec D)\in\operatorname{Core}\big(\mathrm{SAG}([Z]^{c*},\vec D)\big)\ \ \forall\vec D,[Z]c∗ is a pure Nash equilibrium under AR-c, and  αc([Z]c∗,D)∈Core(SAG([Z]c∗,D))  ∀D,

with integrable side payments.

Milestones

  • Examples 1 and 2 (pp. 358–359): a transfer-price allocation outside the core; the dual allocation (8,8,8,0)(8,8,8,0)(8,8,8,0) and the non-dual core allocation (0,0,0,24)(0,0,0,24)(0,0,0,24).
  • Theorem 4.1 (p. 358): if all inventory is claimed, the core of SAG([Z],D⃗)([Z],\vec D)([Z],D) is nonempty and contains the dual allocation (8) for every optimal dual.
  • Theorem 5.2 (p. 361): under AR-f every first-best profile is a Nash equilibrium.
  • Theorem 5.1 (p. 361): for any rule and any of its equilibria [Z]m∗[Z]^{m*}[Z]m∗ there are integrable demand-dependent side payments that leave the set of equilibria unchanged and put the allocations at [Z]m∗[Z]^{m*}[Z]m∗ in the core for every D⃗\vec DD.

Significance

The goal answers the paper's central question positively: there is an allocation mechanism under which the centrally optimal stock levels are an equilibrium of the decentralized stocking game, while every ex-post split of the pooling surplus is stable against all coalitions. Theorem 4.1 is the ex-post half: shadow prices of the shipping LP give a stable split for every realization, independently of who owns which units. The paper also shows (Proposition 5.1, not included here) that the dual allocation alone does not induce first-best stocking, which is why the side payments of Theorem 5.1 are needed.

The results are proved in the paper; Theorem 4.1 is proved there only by reference to the LP-game literature (Owen 1975; Samet and Zemel 1984). None of them has a machine-checked proof. The mission would produce the first formal treatment on Prove2Me of a linear-production (LP) game and its core, and of a model combining a cooperative second stage with a non-cooperative first stage.

Difficulty

Theorem 4.1 is an instance of Owen's theorem on LP games, but the instance is not a standard linear production game: coalition LPs have variables only on arcs inside the coalition, warehouse capacity is limited to the coalition's own claims, and the acceptance constraint divides by βi,n\beta_{i,n}βi,n​, which may be zero, so the general theorem cannot be quoted as it stands. The paper leaves the dual of (6) unwritten, and Mathlib has no ready-made LP duality in this form.

The stochastic layer is the other obstacle. Expected payoffs are integrals, and the side payment is built from a choice of dual prices for each demand realization. Its integrability requires measurability of that choice and of the LP value as a function of demand; neither is given by the paper, which treats the side payments as "constants".

Formalization scope

Retailers are Fin N, warehouses Fin W, locations Fin N ⊕ Fin W; quantities, prices and demands are real numbers; demand is a probability measure on Fin N → ℝ; expectations are Bochner integrals. WS∗W^*_{\mathcal S}WS∗​ is the real supremum of (6a) over the feasible set, and profiles are required to be nonnegative, which makes the feasible set nonempty and bounded. Arcs with βi,n=0\beta_{i,n}=0βi,n​=0 carry no shipment. The core is the platform definition Supermodularity.Cooperative.Core. The dual of (6) is written out explicitly (the paper does not state it). The paper's continuous-CDF assumption is not used and is dropped.

Pinned readings:

  1. "Dual prices" means any optimal solution of the dual of (6) for N\mathcal NN; Theorem 4.1 is stated for every such solution.
  2. "Induces the same equilibrium inventory levels as the first-best" (Theorem 5.2) and "the NE using αc\alpha^cαc is first-best" (Corollary 5.1) are stated as "every first-best profile is a Nash equilibrium", the direction the proofs give.
  3. "[Z]m~∗=[Z]m∗[Z]^{\tilde m*}=[Z]^{m*}[Z]m~∗=[Z]m∗" (Theorem 5.1) is stated as equality of the two sets of equilibria; the continuity and unimodality assumptions, which only guarantee existence of an equilibrium, are dropped because the equilibrium is a hypothesis.
  4. "An appropriate way of breaking ties" is a measurable choice of optimal dual prices; demand is almost surely nonnegative; the rule's payoffs in Theorem 5.1 are integrable.
  5. The shares γn\gamma_nγn​ of Theorem 5.2 are written θn\theta_nθn​, and Eq. (11) is used with +vnHn+v_nH_n+vn​Hn​ in the bracket (printed −vnHn-v_nH_n−vn​Hn​), as the proof on p. 367 requires.

Not acceptable: a core without the efficiency equation (7b); a feasible set that lets qi,n/0=0q_{i,n}/0=0qi,n​/0=0 sell to customers who balk; an arbitrary side payment instead of the constructed one; or a Nash equilibrium evaluated through non-integrable payoffs, whose Bochner integral is 000 and makes every profile an equilibrium.

Useful infrastructure: finite-dimensional LP duality in inequality form, measurable selection of LP optimal solutions, and continuity of LP values in the right-hand side. All of it can be reused in other LP-game and two-stage stochastic programming missions.

Selected references

  • R. Anupindi, Y. Bassok, E. Zemel, A General Framework for the Study of Decentralized Distribution Systems, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 3(4):349–368, 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.3.4.349.9973
  • G. Owen, On the core of linear production games, Mathematical Programming 9:358–370, 1975. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01681356
  • D. Samet, E. Zemel, On the core and dual set of linear programming games, Mathematics of Operations Research 9(2):309–316, 1984. https://doi.org/10.1287/moor.9.2.309
  • G. D. Eppen, Effects of centralization on expected costs in a multi-location newsboy problem, Management Science 25(5):498–501, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.25.5.498
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Complexity TheoryOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Market Equilibrium under Separable, Piecewise-Linear, Concave Utilities II: An Exact 3-Cover Exists iff the Constructed Market Has an EquilibriumResearch Paper

Motivation

Market equilibrium is the central solution concept of general equilibrium theory: prices at which every agent buys a utility-maximizing bundle and supply meets demand. Arrow and Debreu (1954) proved that equilibria exist under mild conditions on endowments and utilities, and a line of work in algorithmic game theory asks how hard it is to compute them. For linear utilities an equilibrium can be computed in polynomial time, and there is an efficiently checkable condition for its existence. The next natural class, additively separable piecewise-linear concave utilities, models diminishing marginal utility and is the class most used in applications.

Vazirani and Yannakakis (J. ACM 58(3), 2011) settle the complexity of this class. They show that equilibria are rational whenever they exist (Theorems 4.1 and 5.1), that computing an equilibrium under the standard sufficient conditions is PPAD-complete (Theorems 6.1 and 7.1, building on Chen, Dai, Du and Teng 2009), and — the subject of this mission — that deciding whether an equilibrium exists at all is NP-complete (Theorem 8.1). The hardness half rests on an explicit construction: from an instance of Exact Cover by 3-Sets, a market whose equilibria encode exact covers.

Setting

An Arrow–Debreu market has a finite set BBB of agents and a finite set GGG of divisible goods. Agent iii owns an endowment wij≥0w_{ij}\ge 0wij​≥0 of each good jjj and has utility ui(y)=∑jfji(yj)u_i(y)=\sum_{j} f^i_j(y_j)ui​(y)=∑j​fji​(yj​), where each fjif^i_jfji​ is a piecewise-linear concave utility function: slopes c1≥c2≥⋯≥cm>0c_1\ge c_2\ge\dots\ge c_m>0c1​≥c2​≥⋯≥cm​>0 on consecutive pieces of lengths a1,…,ama_1,\dots,a_ma1​,…,am​, followed by a last piece of slope t∈[0,cm]t\in[0,c_m]t∈[0,cm​] until infinity (t=0t=0t=0 means the function goes flat).

At prices ppp, agent iii's income is ∑jpjwij\sum_j p_j w_{ij}∑j​pj​wij​. An optimal bundle is an affordable y≥0y\ge 0y≥0 maximizing uiu_iui​ among affordable bundles, bought only along the pieces of fjif^i_jfji​ that carry utility. A price equilibrium is a price vector ppp in the unit simplex (p≥0p\ge 0p≥0, ∑jpj=1\sum_j p_j=1∑j​pj​=1) together with an allocation of optimal bundles such that ∑ixij=∑iwij\sum_i x_{ij}=\sum_i w_{ij}∑i​xij​=∑i​wij​ for every good jjj. It is an ϵ\epsilonϵ-approximate equilibrium if instead ∣∑ixij−∑iwij∣≤ϵ∑iwij|\sum_i x_{ij}-\sum_i w_{ij}|\le\epsilon\sum_i w_{ij}∣∑i​xij​−∑i​wij​∣≤ϵ∑i​wij​ for every jjj.

An X3C instance is a family C=(C1,…,Cn)\mathcal C=(C_1,\dots,C_n)C=(C1​,…,Cn​) of 333-element subsets of X={x1,…,xn}X=\{x_1,\dots,x_n\}X={x1​,…,xn​}; an exact cover is a subfamily in which every element of XXX lies in exactly one set. Following the paper, nnn is a multiple of 333, n>35n>35n>35, and ⋃iCi=X\bigcup_i C_i=X⋃i​Ci​=X.

The market D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C) has 2n+12n+12n+1 goods (good 000, goods CiC_iCi​, goods xjx_jxj​) and 2n+22n+22n+2 agents, with e0=n3e_0=n^3e0​=n3:

  1. agent 000 owns e0e_0e0​ units of every good; his utility for every good has slope 222 up to e0e_0e0​ units and slope 111 beyond;
  2. agent CiC_iCi​ owns one unit of good CiC_iCi​; segments of slope 111, length 1/21/21/2 for good 000, slope 1/31/31/3, length 1/61/61/6 for each good xj∈Cix_j\in C_ixj​∈Ci​, slope 1/91/91/9, length 1/41/41/4 for good CiC_iCi​;
  3. agent xjx_jxj​ owns 1/61/61/6 unit of good xjx_jxj​; one segment of slope 111, length 1/121/121/12 for good 000;
  4. the extra agent owns n/2n/2n/2 units of good 000; one segment of slope 111, length 3/43/43/4 for each good CiC_iCi​.

All other utility functions are flat.

Formalization targets

Goal: the reduction statement

C has an exact cover  ⟺  D(C) has an equilibrium  ⟺  D(C) has an n−5-approximate equilibrium.\mathcal C\ \text{has an exact cover}\iff D(\mathcal C)\ \text{has an equilibrium}\iff D(\mathcal C)\ \text{has an } n^{-5}\text{-approximate equilibrium}.C has an exact cover⟺D(C) has an equilibrium⟺D(C) has an n−5-approximate equilibrium.

This is the mathematical content of the NP-hardness half of Theorem 8.1, assembled by the paper from Lemmas 8.2 and 8.3.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 8.2: an exact cover yields an equilibrium of D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C).
  2. Lemma 7.2, as applied in Lemma 8.3: in an n−5n^{-5}n−5-approximate equilibrium of D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C) all prices are positive and within a factor 222 of each other.
  3. Claims 8.4–8.7: in such an equilibrium, with pmp_mpm​ the minimum price, p(0)=2pmp(0)=2p_mp(0)=2pm​; p(xj)<2pmp(x_j)<2p_mp(xj​)<2pm​; with S={i:p(Ci)≥pm+16∑xj∈Cip(xj)}S=\{i: p(C_i)\ge p_m+\tfrac16\sum_{x_j\in C_i}p(x_j)\}S={i:p(Ci​)≥pm​+61​∑xj​∈Ci​​p(xj​)}, every i∉Si\notin Si∈/S has p(Ci)=pmp(C_i)=p_mp(Ci​)=pm​; and the sets indexed by SSS are pairwise disjoint.
  4. Lemma 8.3: an equilibrium, or an n−5n^{-5}n−5-approximate equilibrium, of D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C) yields an exact cover.

Significance

Theorem 8.1 shows that there is no efficiently checkable necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an equilibrium in piecewise-linear concave markets unless P = NP, in contrast with the linear case. Together with the PPAD results of the same paper it separates two questions: under the classical sufficient conditions an equilibrium exists and finding one is PPAD-complete; without them, even deciding existence is NP-hard, and remains so for n−5n^{-5}n−5-approximate equilibria. The construction illustrates the technique the paper uses for both of its negative results: well-chosen piecewise-linear pieces make an agent buy a segment wholly or not at all, depending on how prices compare, which gives the equilibrium problem a discrete character.

The result is proved in the paper. To our knowledge no part of it has been machine-checked. This mission formalizes the reduction's correctness at full strength, including the approximate version, which requires quantitative control of clearing errors that the exact version does not.

Difficulty

The direction "exact cover ⇒ equilibrium" is an explicit verification: prescribed prices and an allocation, and a check that every bundle is optimal, which for separable piecewise-linear utilities is a bang-per-buck comparison. The converse is the substantial part. An arbitrary approximate equilibrium must be shown to have the rigid price structure — every price in [pm,2pm][p_m,2p_m][pm​,2pm​], good 000 at 2pm2p_m2pm​, unused sets at pmp_mpm​ — before a counting argument on agent 000's savings forces ∣S∣=n/3|S|=n/3∣S∣=n/3. Each step is an excess-demand argument in which the error ϵ\epsilonϵ times the supply must be compared with quantities of order 1/n1/n1/n; this is where n>35n>35n>35 and the exponent 555 enter, and why the approximate statement does not follow from the exact one. Optimality of bundles is a statement about all affordable bundles, so each claim needs the structure of optimal bundles under piecewise-linear concave utility, which is not in Mathlib.

Formalization scope

Lean namespace PLCMarkets.ExactCover. Market data (endowments, slopes, lengths) are rationals; prices and allocations are reals. Goods and agents of D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C) are small inductive types named as in the paper; indices are 0-based. Supplies are not normalized to 111, so clearing is ∑ixij=∑iwij\sum_i x_{ij}=\sum_i w_{ij}∑i​xij​=∑i​wij​; prices are normalized to the simplex in both equilibrium notions, as in the proof of Lemma 8.3. The family C\mathcal CC is indexed and may repeat a set; exact cover and the disjointness of SSS count indices.

Standing hypotheses of every theorem: each CiC_iCi​ has three elements, 3∣n3\mid n3∣n, n>35n>35n>35, ⋃iCi=X\bigcup_i C_i=X⋃i​Ci​=X — the paper's own "without loss of generality" assumptions (p. 10:19). Two conventions depart from the printed page, both necessary and both disclosed on the items:

  • Optimal bundles buy only utility-bearing pieces. If a utility function is flat beyond its segments, the agent does not buy beyond them. The paper uses this throughout (an agent "can only spend pm/6p_m/6pm​/6 on the single segment", Claim 8.5). Without it, agents can spend leftover income on goods worth nothing to them; then setting p(0)=2pmp(0)=2p_mp(0)=2pm​ and every other price to pmp_mpm​ gives an exact equilibrium of every D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C), and the goal is false.
  • The extra agent's segments have length 3/43/43/4. The page prints 3n/43n/43n/4; every computation in the paper (Lemma 8.2, Claim 8.6, the end of Lemma 8.3) uses 3/43/43/4 per good, and with 3n/43n/43n/4 the prices of Lemma 8.2 are not an equilibrium.

Trivializing encodings are excluded: optimality of bundles is part of both equilibrium notions (without it the endowment itself clears every market), clearing is relative and per good, and the goal quantifies only over nnn and C\mathcal CC, with D(C)D(\mathcal C)D(C) an explicit function of C\mathcal CC.

Out of scope: the complexity-class statement "NP-complete" and NP membership (which comes from the rationality theorems of the companion mission); polynomial-time computability of the construction and string encodings of markets; and the Fisher market FFF of §8, whose half of Lemmas 8.2 and 8.3 is a natural follow-up. Reusable infrastructure: piecewise-linear concave utilities, Arrow–Debreu markets with exact and approximate equilibria, and bang-per-buck characterizations of optimal bundles. Contributions proving that characterization as a standalone lemma are welcome.

Selected references

  • V. V. Vazirani and M. Yannakakis, Market Equilibrium under Separable, Piecewise-Linear, Concave Utilities, Journal of the ACM 58(3), Article 10, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1145/1970392.1970394
  • X. Chen, D. Dai, Y. Du and S.-H. Teng, Settling the Complexity of Arrow–Debreu Equilibria in Markets with Additively Separable Utilities, Proceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS), 2009 (reference [Chen et al. 2009a] of the paper).
  • M. R. Garey and D. S. Johnson, Computers and Intractability: A Guide to the Theory of NP-Completeness, W. H. Freeman, 1979.
  • K. J. Arrow and G. Debreu, Existence of an Equilibrium for a Competitive Economy, Econometrica 22(3), 1954. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907353
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Linear OptimizationOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Market Equilibrium under Separable, Piecewise-Linear, Concave Utilities I: Fisher Markets with an Equilibrium Have Rational Equilibrium Prices of Polynomial Bit SizeResearch Paper

Motivation

A Fisher market is the simplest model of a market in which prices are set by supply and demand: buyers bring money, sellers bring goods, and a price vector is an equilibrium when every buyer, spending her money optimally at those prices, leaves every good exactly sold out. Computing equilibria is one of the central questions of algorithmic game theory, because a polynomial-time algorithm is what would make the equilibrium concept usable as a prediction or as a pricing mechanism.

For linear utilities an equilibrium always exists, is rational, and can be computed in polynomial time (Eisenberg and Gale 1959; Devanur, Papadimitriou, Saberi and Vazirani, J. ACM 2008, https://doi.org/10.1145/1411509.1411512). The next natural class, additively separable, piecewise-linear, concave utilities, captures diminishing marginal utility and is the class studied by Vazirani and Yannakakis (J. ACM 58(3), Article 10, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1145/1970392.1970394). Their paper shows that equilibria in this class are hard to compute (PPAD-complete) and that deciding whether one exists is NP-complete. Both results rest on a structural fact proved first: whenever such a market has an equilibrium at all, it has one whose prices are rational numbers of polynomial bit length. That fact is the subject of this mission.

Timeline:

  • 1959, Eisenberg and Gale: a convex program whose optimal solutions are the equilibria of linear Fisher markets; equilibrium prices are rational.
  • 2008, Devanur, Papadimitriou, Saberi and Vazirani: a combinatorial polynomial-time algorithm for linear Fisher markets, based on a max-flow test of candidate prices.
  • 2009, Chen, Dai, Du and Teng, and Chen and Teng (FOCS 2009; ISAAC 2009): PPAD-hardness for additively separable piecewise-linear concave utilities in Arrow–Debreu and Fisher markets.
  • 2011, Vazirani and Yannakakis: rationality of equilibria with polynomial bit size (Theorem 4.1 for Fisher markets, Theorem 5.1 for Arrow–Debreu markets), PPAD membership, and NP-completeness of existence.

Setting

There are nnn buyers B={1,…,n}B=\{1,\dots,n\}B={1,…,n} and ggg divisible goods G={1,…,g}G=\{1,\dots,g\}G={1,…,g}, one unit of each good. Buyer iii has a rational budget e(i)>0e(i)>0e(i)>0. For each buyer iii and good jjj a function fji:R+→R+f^i_j:\mathbb R_+\to\mathbb R_+fji​:R+​→R+​ gives the utility that iii derives from an amount of good jjj. It is piecewise linear and concave: it is given by a finite list of bounded segments (c1,a1),…,(cm,am)(c_1,a_1),\dots,(c_m,a_m)(c1​,a1​),…,(cm​,am​) with rational amounts ak>0a_k>0ak​>0, followed by a last, unbounded segment, with rational slopes c1≥c2≥⋯≥cm≥c∞≥0c_1\ge c_2\ge\dots\ge c_m\ge c_\infty\ge 0c1​≥c2​≥⋯≥cm​≥c∞​≥0. The function has slope ckc_kck​ on [a1+⋯+ak−1, a1+⋯+ak][a_1+\dots+a_{k-1},\,a_1+\dots+a_k][a1​+⋯+ak−1​,a1​+⋯+ak​] and slope c∞c_\inftyc∞​ afterwards. Buyer iii's utility for a bundle x=(x1,…,xg)x=(x_1,\dots,x_g)x=(x1​,…,xg​) is additively separable:

ui(x)=∑j∈Gfji(xj).u_i(x)=\sum_{j\in G}f^i_j(x_j).ui​(x)=j∈G∑​fji​(xj​).

Given prices p∈R≥0gp\in\mathbb R^g_{\ge0}p∈R≥0g​, a bundle x≥0x\ge0x≥0 is optimal for buyer iii if ∑jpjxj≤e(i)\sum_jp_jx_j\le e(i)∑j​pj​xj​≤e(i) and no bundle y≥0y\ge0y≥0 with ∑jpjyj≤e(i)\sum_jp_jy_j\le e(i)∑j​pj​yj​≤e(i) has ui(y)>ui(x)u_i(y)>u_i(x)ui​(y)>ui​(x). The prices ppp are equilibrium prices if there is an allocation (xij)(x_{ij})(xij​) that gives each buyer an optimal bundle and sells every good exactly: ∑ixij=1\sum_ix_{ij}=1∑i​xij​=1 for every jjj.

The bit size of a rational number a/ba/ba/b in lowest terms is the binary length of ∣a∣|a|∣a∣ plus that of bbb. The encoding size ∥M∥\|M\|∥M∥ of a market MMM is n+gn+gn+g plus the bit sizes of all budgets, slopes and amounts, plus the number of bounded segments.

For the intermediate results, fix positive prices ppp. The bang per buck of a segment sss of good jjj is slope(s)/pj\mathrm{slope}(s)/p_jslope(s)/pj​ and its value is amount(s)⋅pj\mathrm{amount}(s)\cdot p_jamount(s)⋅pj​ (infinite for an unbounded segment). Sorting buyer iii's segments by decreasing bang per buck into classes of equal bang per buck, the first class at which the cumulative value exceeds e(i)e(i)e(i) is her flexible class. Segments of strictly larger bang per buck are forced, the others undesirable. From these the paper defines spent(i)\mathrm{spent}(i)spent(i) (value of the forced segments), unspent(i)=e(i)−spent(i)\mathrm{unspent}(i)=e(i)-\mathrm{spent}(i)unspent(i)=e(i)−spent(i), unsold(j)\mathrm{unsold}(j)unsold(j) (the part of good jjj not taken by forced segments), and a network N(p)N(p)N(p) from a source through goods and buyers to a sink.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 4.1 (p. 10:9)

There is a polynomial PPP such that for every Fisher market MMM as above,

M has equilibrium prices p∈Rg ⟹ M has equilibrium prices q∈Qg with ∑jbits⁡(qj)≤P(∥M∥).M\text{ has equilibrium prices }p\in\mathbb R^g\ \Longrightarrow\ M\text{ has equilibrium prices }q\in\mathbb Q^g\text{ with }\sum_{j}\operatorname{bits}(q_j)\le P(\|M\|).M has equilibrium prices p∈Rg ⟹ M has equilibrium prices q∈Qg with j∑​bits(qj​)≤P(∥M∥).

The polynomial is fixed before the market. Nothing beyond the existence of some real equilibrium is assumed.

Milestones

  1. Lemma 3.1 (p. 10:8). For positive prices with ∑jpj=∑ie(i)\sum_jp_j=\sum_ie(i)∑j​pj​=∑i​e(i), unspent≥0\mathrm{unspent}\ge0unspent≥0 and unsold≥0\mathrm{unsold}\ge0unsold≥0: ppp are equilibrium prices iff the max-flow value of N(p)N(p)N(p) is ∑iunspent(i)\sum_i\mathrm{unspent}(i)∑i​unspent(i).
  2. Proof of Theorem 4.1, first sentence (p. 10:9). From a positive equilibrium p′p'p′ with ∑jpj′=∑ie(i)\sum_jp'_j=\sum_ie(i)∑j​pj′​=∑i​e(i), build the linear program of §4, whose variables are prices and flows and whose combinatorial data are fixed by p′p'p′. Then p′p'p′, with a suitable flow, is an optimal solution of value ∑ie(i)\sum_ie(i)∑i​e(i).
  3. §4, second paragraph (p. 10:8). Every optimal solution of that LP with positive prices gives equilibrium prices.

Significance

The result is what makes the existence problem for these markets a problem in NP: a rational equilibrium of polynomial size is a certificate that can be checked, with Lemma 3.1, by one max-flow computation. The same rationality statement underlies the paper's PPAD-membership proof and its NP-completeness result for existence. It also marks the boundary with markets whose equilibria can be irrational, as happens for some non-separable utilities. In that sense it shows that separable piecewise-linear concave utilities keep the "linear" character of the problem even though computing an equilibrium becomes hard.

All three statements are proved in the source, and none of them has a machine-checked proof on the platform or, as far as is known, anywhere else. The mission produces the first formal account of piecewise-linear Fisher markets: the model, the forced/flexible/undesirable classification of segments, the max-flow test for equilibrium, and the linear program of §4. It also forces precision where the paper is informal. The §4 bang-per-buck inequalities are printed with their directions reversed, and the claim about optimal LP solutions needs positive prices. The formal statements record each of these choices.

Difficulty

The obvious argument is: "equilibria are solutions of a linear system, so a rational one exists". It fails as stated, because the set of equilibrium prices is not a polyhedron. Which segments a buyer buys depends on the prices themselves, through the ordering of the ratios slope/pj\mathrm{slope}/p_jslope/pj​, so the equilibrium conditions are a finite union of polyhedral pieces glued along the price-dependent ordering. The work is to freeze the combinatorial structure of one given equilibrium and to show that the resulting fixed linear program still certifies equilibrium at every one of its optimal points. That second step is what Lemma 3.1 is for. The polynomial bit bound then needs a quantitative bound on the vertices of a rational LP, uniform in the market's encoding.

Formalization scope

Buyers and goods are Fin n and Fin g. Budgets, slopes and amounts are rationals (ℚ). Prices and allocations are reals (ℝ), so that "admits rational prices" is a real conclusion: the goal returns q : Fin g → ℚ whose cast is an equilibrium. The committed conventions are:

  • each good has unit supply;
  • budgets are positive;
  • each fjif^i_jfji​ is a list of (slope, amount) pairs of bounded segments together with the slope of its last, unbounded segment ("the last (infinite) segment", §6), with nonnegative slopes, positive amounts and nonincreasing slopes, stored inside the market structure;
  • the unbounded segment has infinite value and, when flexible, gives its network edge infinite capacity; this is encoded logically (no upper bound on that edge);
  • equilibrium requires exact clearing of every good, which by the paper's footnote 3 gives the same equilibrium prices as leaving zero-price goods partly unsold;
  • the classes QlQ_lQl​ are represented by the bang per buck of the flexible class, not by an index;
  • parallel network edges are merged;
  • max-flow is the supremum of the values of feasible flows on the good–buyer edges.

Hypotheses added relative to the page, each disclosed in its statement:

  • positivity of the LP solution's prices (milestone 3).

The §2 condition on p. 10:7 is a sufficient condition for existence and is deliberately not a hypothesis of the goal, which assumes only that an equilibrium exists. Complexity-class statements ("in NP", "PPAD-complete") are out of scope. What is formalized is the explicit polynomial bit bound, with a polynomial chosen before the market. A goal with the polynomial chosen after the market, an encoding size that ignores the bits of the data, or an equilibrium notion without utility-maximizing bundles would be trivially satisfiable. The statements rule all three out.

Beyond this mission, a complete development needs LP theory with rational data: existence of optimal basic solutions and determinant bounds on their bit size. Existing platform results that may serve as substrate include SmaleNinth.exists_square_subsystem and SmaleNinth.abs_det_le_factorial_mul_pow. Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, a reusable bit-size theory for rational LP vertices, and the Arrow–Debreu analogue (Theorem 5.1).

Selected references

  • V. V. Vazirani and M. Yannakakis, Market Equilibrium under Separable, Piecewise-Linear, Concave Utilities, J. ACM 58(3), Article 10, 2011. https://doi.org/10.1145/1970392.1970394
  • N. R. Devanur, C. H. Papadimitriou, A. Saberi and V. V. Vazirani, Market Equilibrium via a Primal–Dual Algorithm for a Convex Program, J. ACM 55(5), 2008. https://doi.org/10.1145/1411509.1411512
  • E. Eisenberg and D. Gale, Consensus of Subjective Probabilities: The Pari-Mutuel Method, Ann. Math. Statist. 30(1), 1959. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177706369
  • X. Chen, D. Dai, Y. Du and S.-H. Teng, Settling the Complexity of Arrow–Debreu Equilibria in Markets with Additively Separable Utilities, FOCS 2009. https://doi.org/10.1109/FOCS.2009.29
  • W. C. Brainard and H. E. Scarf, How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1272, 2000. https://cowles.yale.edu/research/cfdp-1272
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Mechanism DesignOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Incentives in Teams: The Own Profit Incentive Structure Is an Optimal Incentive Structure for a ConglomerateResearch Paper

Motivation

An organization whose members hold private information faces two problems at once. The first is the team problem of Marschak and Radner: choose the rules by which members observe, communicate and decide so as to maximize the expected payoff of the organization as a whole (Marschak–Radner 1972). The second is the incentive problem: a member who is paid by their own results has no reason to follow those rules, and in particular no reason to report truthfully what they have observed. Theodore Groves' Incentives in Teams (Econometrica 41(4), 1973) connected the two. For a decentralized firm in which subunits report to a head, it exhibits compensation rules that make the team-optimal behaviour, truthful messages included, each subunit manager's unique best reply.

The construction is the origin of what is now called the Groves scheme, and with Vickrey's second-price auction (Vickrey 1961) and Clarke's pivot rule (Clarke 1971) it forms the Vickrey–Clarke–Groves (VCG) family of mechanisms.

Timeline:

  • 1961, Vickrey: second-price auctions make truthful bidding a dominant strategy for a single object.
  • 1971, Clarke: pivot payments for public-good decisions with deterministic valuations.
  • 1972, Marschak–Radner: the economic theory of teams, with information and decision structures but a common payoff.
  • 1973, Groves: compensation CiIIC_i^{II}CiII​ based on the head's conditional expectation of the other units' payoffs; Theorem 1 proves optimality in a conglomerate with independent component states and one round of communication.
  • 1977, Green–Laffont: in the complete-information setting, Groves-type payments are the only ones that make truth-telling dominant (Econometrica 45(2)).
  • 1979, d'Aspremont–Gérard-Varet: Bayesian incentive-compatible mechanisms with expected externality payments (J. Public Econ. 11(1)).

The conglomerate model

The organization consists of a head (component 000) and finitely many subunits i=1,…,ni = 1, \dots, ni=1,…,n. Each component kkk has its own random component state sk∈Sks_k \in S_ksk​∈Sk​, and the components are independent: the state of the environment s=(s0,s1,…,sn)s = (s_0, s_1, \dots, s_n)s=(s0​,s1​,…,sn​) is distributed according to the product law P(s)=P0(s0)∏iPi(si)P(s) = P_0(s_0) \prod_{i} P_i(s_i)P(s)=P0​(s0​)∏i​Pi​(si​) (Condition S.2).

Every member plays a strategy βk=(ζk,γk,δk)\beta_k = (\zeta_k, \gamma_k, \delta_k)βk​=(ζk​,γk​,δk​) made of an observation strategy ζk\zeta_kζk​ on its own state, a message strategy γk\gamma_kγk​ and a decision strategy δk\delta_kδk​ (Condition S.3). Communication runs only between the head and each subunit, in one exchange: the head observes ζ0(s0)\zeta_0(s_0)ζ0​(s0​) and sends γ0i(ζ0(s0))\gamma_0^i(\zeta_0(s_0))γ0i​(ζ0​(s0​)) to subunit iii; the subunit, with information yi(s)=[ζi(si),γ0i(ζ0(s0))]y_i(s) = [\zeta_i(s_i), \gamma_0^i(\zeta_0(s_0))]yi​(s)=[ζi​(si​),γ0i​(ζ0​(s0​))], sends back γi(yi(s))\gamma_i(y_i(s))γi​(yi​(s)); the head's information is y0(s)=[ζ0(s0),{γi(yi(s))}i]y_0(s) = [\zeta_0(s_0), \{\gamma_i(y_i(s))\}_{i}]y0​(s)=[ζ0​(s0​),{γi​(yi​(s))}i​] (3.1). Decisions are δi(yi(s))\delta_i(y_i(s))δi​(yi​(s)) and δ0(y0(s))\delta_0(y_0(s))δ0​(y0​(s)).

The organization payoff is a sum of components (Condition S.4),

ω0(β,s)=∑i=1nvi[δi(yi(s)),δ0(y0(s));si]+v0[δ0(y0(s)),s0],\omega_0(\beta, s) = \sum_{i=1}^n v_i[\delta_i(y_i(s)), \delta_0(y_0(s)); s_i] + v_0[\delta_0(y_0(s)), s_0],ω0​(β,s)=i=1∑n​vi​[δi​(yi​(s)),δ0​(y0​(s));si​]+v0​[δ0​(y0​(s)),s0​],

and ωˉ0(β)=E[ω0(β,s)]\bar\omega_0(\beta) = E[\omega_0(\beta, s)]ωˉ0​(β)=E[ω0​(β,s)]. Each viv_ivi​ accrues directly to subunit iii (Condition S.5). Strategy sets B0,B1,…,BnB_0, B_1, \dots, B_nB0​,B1​,…,Bn​ are given; β/βi\beta/\beta_iβ/βi​ denotes β\betaβ with subunit iii's strategy replaced by βi\beta_iβi​. Two strategies βi′,βi′′\beta_i', \beta_i''βi′​,βi′′​ are equivalent if ωˉ0(β/βi′)=ωˉ0(β/βi′′)\bar\omega_0(\beta/\beta_i') = \bar\omega_0(\beta/\beta_i'')ωˉ0​(β/βi′​)=ωˉ0​(β/βi′′​) for every β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B.

Assumption A requires a β∗∈B\beta^* \in Bβ∗∈B maximizing ωˉ0\bar\omega_0ωˉ0​ over BBB such that, for each subunit, ωˉ0(β∗)>ωˉ0(β∗/βi)\bar\omega_0(\beta^*) > \bar\omega_0(\beta^*/\beta_i)ωˉ0​(β∗)>ωˉ0​(β∗/βi​) whenever βi∈Bi\beta_i \in B_iβi​∈Bi​ is not equivalent to βi∗\beta_i^*βi∗​.

An incentive structure W={ωi}W = \{\omega_i\}W={ωi​} pays subunit iii the amount ωi(β,s)\omega_i(\beta, s)ωi​(β,s). The class J\mathscr{J}J (3.2) consists of those of the form ωi=vi[… ]+Ci(y0(s))\omega_i = v_i[\dots] + C_i(y_0(s))ωi​=vi​[…]+Ci​(y0​(s)): own payoff plus a compensation computed from the head's information only. WWW is optimal (2.6) if βi∗\beta_i^*βi∗​ maximizes ωˉi(β∗/βi)\bar\omega_i(\beta^*/\beta_i)ωˉi​(β∗/βi​) over BiB_iBi​, uniquely up to equivalence.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 1 (p. 625)

With CiII(y0)=∑j≠iE[vj[δj∗(yj∗(s)),δ0∗(y0∗(s));sj] ∣ y0∗(s)=y0]−AiC_i^{II}(y_0) = \sum_{j \ne i} E\big[v_j[\delta_j^*(y_j^*(s)), \delta_0^*(y_0^*(s)); s_j] \,\big|\, y_0^*(s) = y_0\big] - A_iCiII​(y0​)=∑j=i​E[vj​[δj∗​(yj∗​(s)),δ0∗​(y0∗​(s));sj​]​y0∗​(s)=y0​]−Ai​, the sum running over all components j∈{0,…,n}j \in \{0, \dots, n\}j∈{0,…,n} other than iii and the expectation taken under β∗\beta^*β∗ (3.3), the structure ωiII=vi[… ]+CiII(y0(s))\omega_i^{II} = v_i[\dots] + C_i^{II}(y_0(s))ωiII​=vi​[…]+CiII​(y0​(s)) lies in J\mathscr{J}J and satisfies, for every subunit iii and every βi∈Bi\beta_i \in B_iβi​∈Bi​,

ωˉiII(β∗/βi)≤ωˉiII(β∗),with strict inequality if βi≢βi∗.\bar\omega_i^{II}(\beta^*/\beta_i) \le \bar\omega_i^{II}(\beta^*), \qquad \text{with strict inequality if } \beta_i \not\equiv \beta_i^*.ωˉiII​(β∗/βi​)≤ωˉiII​(β∗),with strict inequality if βi​≡βi∗​.

It holds for every β∗\beta^*β∗ satisfying Assumption A, all strategy sets and all constants AiA_iAi​.

Milestones

  1. The Appendix Lemma: the sets of states consistent with the head's information under β∗/βi\beta^*/\beta_iβ∗/βi​ and under β∗\beta^*β∗ have the same projections onto every component other than iii.
  2. The right-hand side of (A.2): the head's conditional expectation factorizes over the independent components.
  3. (A.2) for a subunit j≠ij \ne ij=i, and 4. (A.2) for the head's component j=0j = 0j=0: the expected payoff of component jjj under β∗/βi\beta^*/\beta_iβ∗/βi​ equals the expected value of its conditional expectation.
  4. (A.1): ωˉiII(β∗/βi)+Ai=ωˉ0(β∗/βi)\bar\omega_i^{II}(\beta^*/\beta_i) + A_i = \bar\omega_0(\beta^*/\beta_i)ωˉiII​(β∗/βi​)+Ai​=ωˉ0​(β∗/βi​) for all βi∈Bi\beta_i \in B_iβi​∈Bi​.

Significance

Theorem 1 shows that a head who knows only the messages it receives can nonetheless align every subunit's interest with the organization's, without monitoring decisions or observations. It is an early statement that expected-externality payments make truthful communication an equilibrium of a decentralized organization, and the Bayesian, team-theoretic counterpart of the dominant-strategy results of Vickrey and Clarke. Its structure (own payoff plus a transfer depending only on the others' reported information) is the template later characterized by Green and Laffont and generalized by d'Aspremont and Gérard-Varet.

Theorem 1 is proved in the paper; nothing here is open mathematically. What the mission adds is a machine-checked version with every modelling choice explicit: how information is generated by the message protocol, what the conditional expectation in (3.3) means on events of probability zero, and which equivalence "uniquely" refers to. No machine-checked proof of Theorem 1 is known to the platform. The platform's AGT.vcg_incentive_compatible treats the complete-information, direct-revelation analogue (deterministic valuations, dominant strategies), a different model with a different conclusion.

Difficulty

The tempting argument conditions on the head's information y0∗(s)=y0y_0^*(s) = y_0y0∗​(s)=y0​ under β∗\beta^*β∗ and compares it with the head's information under a deviation. That comparison fails when a deviating subunit sends a message that γi∗\gamma_i^*γi∗​ never sends: the conditioning event then has probability zero under β∗\beta^*β∗, and the conditional expectation of (3.3) is not determined by the joint law. A second obstacle is that the head's information under a deviation differs from the information under β∗\beta^*β∗ in every coordinate the deviation touches, while the compensation is computed as if β∗\beta^*β∗ were played; the statement to be proved compares expectations taken under two different joint strategies, and the one-exchange protocol makes the head's messages, and hence every subunit's information, depend on the head's own state. Treating these dependencies loosely either produces a circular definition of the information functions (as (3.1) is printed) or a statement that fails on events of probability zero.

Formalization scope

  • Every component state space SkS_kSk​ is a finite type with weights that are nonnegative and sum to one; the joint law is the product of these weights and expectations are finite sums. The paper allows general probability spaces; the finite case covers the whole argument and gives conditional expectations at a point an elementary meaning.
  • Subunits form a finite index type; the head is a separate component with its own observation, message and decision types. Observation, message and decision spaces are fixed types per component.
  • Information (3.1) follows the single exchange of messages the paper describes in §4.A (p. 627): the head's message to subunit iii is a function of the head's observation. As printed, (3.1) is circular; this protocol is the paper's own resolution.
  • CiIIC_i^{II}CiII​ is used in factorized form: the head's term conditions only the head's state on the head's observation, and subunit jjj's term conditions only sjs_jsj​ on the message jjj sent. A separate milestone states that this equals the literal conditional expectation of (3.3) whenever the conditioning event has positive probability. The literal elementary quotient takes the value 000 on null events, and with it Theorem 1 is false (one subunit that can send an unused message suffices); the factorized form is what the Appendix computes. The sum in (3.3) includes the head's component v0v_0v0​.
  • Equivalence of strategies is footnote 5's, over all β∈B\beta \in Bβ∈B; optimality includes the strict inequality for non-equivalent deviations. A formalization that replaces equivalence by equality of strategies, fixes Bi={βi∗}B_i = \{\beta_i^*\}Bi​={βi∗​}, drops the strict inequality, or assumes (A.1) as a hypothesis is not this theorem.
  • The Lemma carries the added hypothesis that the set B(s)B(s)B(s) is nonempty; the paper's proof presumes it and the statement is false without it.

Contributions welcome: proofs of the milestones, and reusable finite-probability facts (conditioning on product events, iterated expectation over a coordinate) stated for product weights.

Selected references

  • T. Groves, Incentives in Teams, Econometrica 41(4):617–631, 1973. https://doi.org/10.2307/1914085
  • J. Marschak and R. Radner, Economic Theory of Teams, Yale University Press, 1972.
  • W. Vickrey, Counterspeculation, Auctions, and Competitive Sealed Tenders, Journal of Finance 16(1):8–37, 1961. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1961.tb02789.x
  • E. H. Clarke, Multipart Pricing of Public Goods, Public Choice 11:17–33, 1971. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01726210
  • J. Green and J.-J. Laffont, Characterization of Satisfactory Mechanisms for the Revelation of Preferences for Public Goods, Econometrica 45(2):427–438, 1977. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911219
  • C. d'Aspremont and L.-A. Gérard-Varet, Incentives and Incomplete Information, Journal of Public Economics 11(1):25–45, 1979. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2727(79)90043-4
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Operations Research·Captain: naimengye

The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management V: CompetitionTextbook

When competing firms settle on prices and allocations

Revenue management is practised by firms that compete: airlines matching fares while allocating seats, retailers ordering stock and then pricing to clear it, hotels protecting rooms for late high-paying guests. Chapter 8 of Talluri and van Ryzin's The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management (2004) surveys the economics behind these situations: monopoly pricing and mechanism design, the Coase problem, advance-purchase discounts, and oligopoly in quantities (Cournot), in prices (Bertrand, Bertrand–Edgeworth with capacities), in newsvendor capacities and in RM allocations. Most of its numbered results are quoted from the literature; what the book itself establishes is a family of equilibrium arguments built on Talluri's equilibrium graph: when each firm's best response moves monotonically with the rival's action, following best-response arcs must end in an equilibrium pair. This mission formalizes those arguments, with Proposition 8.3, existence of an equilibrium in offer sets under the multinomial-logit choice model, as the goal.

Setting

A two-firm game on finite chains of strategies has payoffs u1,u2u_1, u_2u1​,u2​, best responses and pure Nash equilibria (IsBestResponse1, IsNashEquilibrium); its equilibrium graph has no crossing arcs (NoCrossing1) when best-response arcs (k2,k1)(k_2, k_1)(k2​,k1​), (l2,l1)(l_2, l_1)(l2​,l1​) with k2<l2k_2 < l_2k2​<l2​ always have k1≤l1k_1 \le l_1k1​≤l1​. The chapter's games are: the RM duopoly of Sect. 8.4.1.3, two firms with capacity CCC and fares pL<pHp_L < p_HpL​<pH​ whose high-fare demand spills over to the rival beyond its protection level (spilloverDemand), each firm answering with Littlewood's protection level (littlewoodResponse); the duopoly newsvendor of Example 8.16 with effective demands R1=D1+(D2−x2)+R_1 = D_1 + (D_2 - x_2)^+R1​=D1​+(D2​−x2​)+ (effectiveDemand); linear Cournot (cournotPayoff); Bertrand–Edgeworth price competition with capacity CCC per firm, linear demand and efficient rationing (beSales, bePayoff, IsBEEquilibrium); the advance-purchase model of Sect. 8.3.6 (peakLoadRevenue, advancePurchaseRevenue); and the one-period offer-set game of Sect. 8.4.3.2, where a firm offering its first kkk products earns g(Ck)/(W1(k)+W2(l)+w0)g(C_k)/(W_1(k) + W_2(l) + w_0)g(Ck​)/(W1​(k)+W2​(l)+w0​) with g(Ck)=∑j≤kwj(pj−Δ)−w0δg(C_k) = \sum_{j \le k} w_j(p_j - \Delta) - w_0\deltag(Ck​)=∑j≤k​wj​(pj​−Δ)−w0​δ (OfferFirm, offerPayoff1, CaseI, CaseII).

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 8.3

If both firms are in Case I (g(G∗)≥0g(G^*) \ge 0g(G∗)≥0) or both in Case II (g<0g < 0g<0 on every complete set), the offer-set game has a pure-strategy equilibrium in complete sets: mnl_offer_set_equilibrium.

Supporting targets

The equilibrium-graph lemma, monotone best responses for both firms give an equilibrium (Sect. 8.4.1.3); Proposition 8.1, Littlewood responses in the RM duopoly are monotone in the rival's protection level, and the resulting equilibrium of the RM duopoly game; Example 8.16, duopoly newsvendor capacities total at least the monopoly capacity; Example 8.15, the symmetric Cournot equilibrium and its price; Theorem 8.5 (i)-(ii), the pure-strategy Bertrand–Edgeworth equilibria; and the advance-purchase comparison of Sect. 8.3.6, w2<w^w_2 < \hat ww2​<w^ and VAPD(w^)≥Vpeak(w2)V_{APD}(\hat w) \ge V_{peak}(w_2)VAPD​(w^)≥Vpeak​(w2​).

Not targets: Theorems 8.1-8.2 (the Coase problem, subgame-perfect equilibria of an infinite-horizon game, proofs in von der Fehr and Kühn), Theorem 8.3 (Harris–Raviv priority pricing, stated with a garbled price formula), Theorem 8.4 (existence via quasiconcavity, cited), Theorem 8.5 (iii), 8.6 and 8.7-8.8 (mixed-strategy and supergame equilibria of Kreps and Scheinkman and Benoit and Krishna), Proposition 8.2 and Proposition 8.4 (the dynamic offer-set game under condition (8.32), proved in Talluri's paper), and the Kreps–Scheinkman derivation of Sect. 8.4.1.6, which rests on Theorem 8.6.

Significance

The equilibrium graph is the chapter's own contribution: a bipartite picture of best responses on chains in which monotonicity, the absence of crossing arcs, forces an equilibrium. It is the finite, combinatorial form of the monotone comparative-statics route to Nash equilibrium (Tarski's fixed point on a chain), and it is what makes RM allocation games tractable: the two-class duopoly with Littlewood responses always has an equilibrium, and the offer-set duopoly does whenever the two firms face the same sign of ggg, while Example 8.18 shows a best-response cycle when they do not. The Bertrand–Edgeworth, Cournot and newsvendor results are the benchmarks the book uses to interpret RM competition: capacity constraints soften Bertrand's zero-profit outcome, competing in allocations tends to raise total capacity above the monopoly level, and advance-purchase discounts dominate peak-load pricing as a self-selection mechanism. None of these has a machine-checked proof.

Difficulty

The lemma and the goal are fixed-point arguments on finite chains: the largest best response is a monotone map of the rival's index, the composition of two monotone (or two antitone) maps on a finite chain has a fixed point, and for the offer-set game the monotonicity itself must be extracted from the ratio structure g(Ck)/(W(k)+a)g(C_k)/(W(k) + a)g(Ck​)/(W(k)+a) as in the appendix's inequalities (8.A.3)-(8.A.5), separately in the two cases. Proposition 8.1 is a monotonicity of tail probabilities under the pointwise order of effective demands. Example 8.16 is a short probabilistic argument that needs the identity {D>x1+x2}={R1>x1}∩{R2>x2}\{D > x_1 + x_2\} = \{R_1 > x_1\} \cap \{R_2 > x_2\}{D>x1​+x2​}={R1​>x1​}∩{R2​>x2​} and the strict monotonicity of the tail. Theorem 8.5 requires computing efficient-rationing sales for every unilateral deviation from a symmetric profile, through the recursive definition of residual demand, and a quadratic inequality for upward deviations in part (ii). The advance-purchase item reduces to the identity VAPD(w)−Vpeak(w)=(1−α)wV_{APD}(w) - V_{peak}(w) = (1 - \alpha)wVAPD​(w)−Vpeak​(w)=(1−α)w and the strict decrease of the first-order-condition function.

Formalization scope

Products, protection levels and complete sets are natural numbers; the offer-set game's strategies are the complete sets C1,…,CnC_1, \dots, C_nC1​,…,Cn​ of the book, and its payoff is (8.31) up to the positive factor λ\lambdaλ and the terms independent of both offer sets. Prices decreasing in the product index are a hypothesis, as the nested-by-revenue order of Sect. 8.4.3.2. The RM duopoly is modeled through Littlewood's response, as the book's appendix argues, rather than through expected revenues. Efficient rationing is defined recursively over the firms priced strictly below a given firm, with equal sharing among firms at the same price. Example 8.16 is stated with the equilibrium conditions (8.23) and the strictly increasing distribution of aggregate demand as hypotheses. The advance-purchase item takes the first-order conditions (8.13) and (8.15) and the book's uniqueness assumption as hypotheses, the latter as (v−w)−F(w)/f(w)(v - w) - F(w)/f(w)(v−w)−F(w)/f(w) strictly decreasing in www (the page prints "increasing", but its footnote identifies it with the monotone marginal-revenue assumption, which is decreasing in the waiting cost). Theorem 8.5 is stated for its pure-strategy parts (i) and (ii) only.

Selected references

  • K. T. Talluri and G. J. van Ryzin, The Theory and Practice of Revenue Management, Kluwer/Springer, 2004, Chapter 8. https://doi.org/10.1007/b139000
  • D. M. Kreps and J. A. Scheinkman, Quantity precommitment and Bertrand competition yield Cournot outcomes, Bell Journal of Economics 14(2), 1983. https://doi.org/10.2307/3003636
  • S. A. Lippman and K. F. McCardle, The competitive newsboy, Operations Research 45(1), 1997. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.45.1.54
  • S. Netessine and R. A. Shumsky, Revenue management games: horizontal and vertical competition, Management Science 51(5), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0356
  • I. L. Gale and T. J. Holmes, Advance-purchase discounts and monopoly allocation of capacity, American Economic Review 83(1), 1993. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2117500
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 1998. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory VIII: Supply Chain ContractsTextbook

Why the newsvendor orders too little

A retailer facing uncertain single-period demand and buying from a supplier at a wholesale price orders less than the two of them together would want. The reason is not irrationality but incentives: the retailer bears the whole cost of unsold stock while the supplier collects a margin on every unit ordered, so each party marks up its own cost and the combined markup, Spengler's (1950) double marginalization, depresses the order. Pasternack (1985) showed that a buyback credit for unsold units, priced correctly, realigns the retailer with the chain, and Cachon (2003) surveys the contracts that followed. Chapter 14 of Snyder and Shen's Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory (2019) develops this as a Stackelberg game on the newsvendor model: the supplier sets contract terms, the retailer sets the order quantity. This mission formalizes the chapter's seven theorems, with the buyback allocation theorem, which shows that buyback both coordinates the chain and can divide its profit in any proportion, as the goal.

Setting

Demand DDD is a random variable with law on R\mathbb{R}R and mean μ\muμ. The retail price is rrr; the supplier's and retailer's per-unit costs are csc_scs​ and crc_rcr​ with c=cs+cr<rc = c_s + c_r < rc=cs​+cr​<r; lost sales cost the two parties goodwill penalties psp_sps​ and prp_rpr​ with p=ps+prp = p_s + p_rp=ps​+pr​; unsold units salvage for v<crv < c_rv<cr​ (ContractData). With S(Q)=E[min⁡{Q,D}]S(Q) = \mathbb{E}[\min\{Q, D\}]S(Q)=E[min{Q,D}] the expected sales (expSales) and I(Q)=Q−S(Q)I(Q) = Q - S(Q)I(Q)=Q−S(Q) the expected leftover (expLeftover), a transfer payment T(Q)T(Q)T(Q) from retailer to supplier determines the two profits (retailerProfit, supplierProfit),

πr(Q)=(r−v+pr)S(Q)−(cr−v)Q−prμ−T(Q),πs(Q)=psS(Q)−csQ−psμ+T(Q),\pi_r(Q) = (r - v + p_r)S(Q) - (c_r - v)Q - p_r\mu - T(Q), \qquad \pi_s(Q) = p_s S(Q) - c_s Q - p_s\mu + T(Q),πr​(Q)=(r−v+pr​)S(Q)−(cr​−v)Q−pr​μ−T(Q),πs​(Q)=ps​S(Q)−cs​Q−ps​μ+T(Q),

whose sum Π(Q)=(r−v+p)S(Q)−(c−v)Q−pμ\Pi(Q) = (r - v + p)S(Q) - (c - v)Q - p\muΠ(Q)=(r−v+p)S(Q)−(c−v)Q−pμ (chainProfit) is independent of the contract. The chain-optimal quantity Q0Q_0Q0​ maximizes Π\PiΠ; the retailer's and supplier's optimal quantities Qr∗Q^*_rQr∗​, Qs∗Q^*_sQs∗​ maximize their own profits. A contract coordinates the chain when Qr∗=Qs∗=Q0Q^*_r = Q^*_s = Q_0Qr∗​=Qs∗​=Q0​, stated here as equality of the sets of maximizers, and is a coordinating contract type when some choice of its parameters does this with both profits positive.

The four contracts are their transfer payments. Wholesale price: T=wQT = wQT=wQ. Buyback: T=wQ−b I(Q)T = wQ - b\,I(Q)T=wQ−bI(Q), the supplier crediting bbb per unsold unit, with 0≤b≤r−v+pr0 \le b \le r - v + p_r0≤b≤r−v+pr​ and w=w(b)w = w(b)w=w(b) of (14.22). Revenue sharing: the retailer keeps a fraction ϕ\phiϕ of sales and salvage revenue, T=(w+(1−ϕ)v)Q+(1−ϕ)(r−v)S(Q)T = (w + (1-\phi)v)Q + (1-\phi)(r - v)S(Q)T=(w+(1−ϕ)v)Q+(1−ϕ)(r−v)S(Q), with w=w(ϕ)w = w(\phi)w=w(ϕ) of (14.34). Quantity flexibility: the supplier reimburses the retailer's loss w+cr−vw + c_r - vw+cr​−v on unsold units up to δQ\delta QδQ, T=wQ−(w+cr−v)∫(1−δ)QQF(t) dtT = wQ - (w + c_r - v)\int_{(1-\delta)Q}^{Q} F(t)\,dtT=wQ−(w+cr​−v)∫(1−δ)QQ​F(t)dt, with w=w(δ)w = w(\delta)w=w(δ) of (14.46). For buyback, λ=(r−v+pr−b)/(r−v+p)\lambda = (r - v + p_r - b)/(r - v + p)λ=(r−v+pr​−b)/(r−v+p) is the retailer's share of the chain profit (buybackShare), and b1<b2b_1 < b_2b1​<b2​ (buybackB1, buybackB2) are the credits at which one party earns everything.

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 14.5

Under buyback with w(b)w(b)w(b) at the chain-optimal Q0Q_0Q0​, the retailer's profit is decreasing and the supplier's increasing in b∈[0,r−v+pr]b \in [0, r - v + p_r]b∈[0,r−v+pr​], with 0<b1<b2<r−v+pr0 < b_1 < b_2 < r - v + p_r0<b1​<b2​<r−v+pr​ and

πr(Q0,w(b1),b1)=Π(Q0),πs(Q0,w(b2),b2)=Π(Q0),\pi_r(Q_0, w(b_1), b_1) = \Pi(Q_0), \qquad \pi_s(Q_0, w(b_2), b_2) = \Pi(Q_0),πr​(Q0​,w(b1​),b1​)=Π(Q0​),πs​(Q0​,w(b2​),b2​)=Π(Q0​),

the supplier losing money for b<b1b < b_1b<b1​, both earning positive profit for b1<b<b2b_1 < b < b_2b1​<b<b2​, and the retailer losing money for b>b2b > b_2b>b2​. This is buyback_allocation.

Supporting targets

Equation (14.8), Q0Q_0Q0​ maximizes Π\PiΠ iff Fˉ(Q0)=(c−v)/(r−v+p)\bar F(Q_0) = (c - v)/(r - v + p)Fˉ(Q0​)=(c−v)/(r−v+p); Theorem 14.1, the wholesale price contract coordinates iff w=cs−c−vr−v+ppsw = c_s - \frac{c-v}{r-v+p}p_sw=cs​−r−v+pc−v​ps​, at which the supplier's profit is negative; Theorem 14.2, Qr∗<Q0Q^*_r < Q_0Qr∗​<Q0​ whenever w>csw > c_sw>cs​; Theorem 14.3, for IGFR demand the supplier's induced profit πs(Q,w(Q))\pi_s(Q, w(Q))πs​(Q,w(Q)) is unimodal; the identities (14.27) and (14.28), πr=λΠ+μ(λp−pr)\pi_r = \lambda\Pi + \mu(\lambda p - p_r)πr​=λΠ+μ(λp−pr​) and its complement under buyback; Theorem 14.4, buyback with w(b)w(b)w(b) coordinates; Theorem 14.6, revenue sharing with w(ϕ)w(\phi)w(ϕ) coordinates; Theorem 14.7, quantity flexibility with w(δ)w(\delta)w(δ) makes Q0Q_0Q0​ optimal for the retailer.

Significance

The chapter's theorems are the analytical basis of contract design in newsvendor supply chains. Theorem 14.1 and 14.2 make double marginalization precise: coordination by price alone is possible only at a price the supplier rejects, and any acceptable price makes the retailer under-order. Theorem 14.3 is what lets the supplier optimize the wholesale price at all, and is the reason the IGFR class of Lariviere and Porteus (2001) is standard in the field. Theorems 14.4 to 14.6 show that buyback and revenue sharing coordinate and, through the share λ\lambdaλ, that the chain profit can be split arbitrarily, so a coordinating contract can be made acceptable to both parties. Theorem 14.7 shows the limits: quantity flexibility coordinates the retailer but not necessarily the supplier.

None of these results has a machine-checked proof. The book proves Theorems 14.1, 14.3, 14.4, 14.5, 14.6 and 14.7 and leaves 14.2 as an exercise. The formalization of the fractile characterization and of the affine profit identities is reusable for the many contract types (sales rebates, quantity discounts) the chapter cites but does not analyze.

Difficulty

The wholesale price results are first-order conditions on concave functions, and the difficulty is entirely in the analysis: S(Q)=E[min⁡{Q,D}]S(Q) = \mathbb{E}[\min\{Q, D\}]S(Q)=E[min{Q,D}] has derivative Fˉ(Q)\bar F(Q)Fˉ(Q) for every QQQ when FFF is continuous, which is a differentiation under the integral that has to be carried out for a Lipschitz integrand and an arbitrary law, and the maximizers of the concave profit must then be identified with the solutions of the fractile equation, including existence by the intermediate value theorem. Theorem 14.1's "only if" direction requires that a coincidence of maximizer sets pins the fractile and hence the price, which is where strict monotonicity of FFF enters.

Theorem 14.3 is the delicate one. The obvious approach, concavity of πs(Q,w(Q))\pi_s(Q, w(Q))πs​(Q,w(Q)), fails: the book stresses the function is not concave in general. The proof is a sign-change argument on the derivative (14.16), which is Fˉ(Q)\bar F(Q)Fˉ(Q) times a bracket that IGFR makes decreasing, minus a constant; one must show the derivative is positive near 000, eventually negative, and crosses zero exactly once, and that the last needs both Fˉ\bar FFˉ strictly decreasing and the bracket positive at the crossing. Working with a density in Mathlib means relating the withDensity law to the distribution function throughout.

The buyback, revenue sharing and quantity flexibility theorems are algebra once the right identity is found: πr\pi_rπr​ is an affine function of Π\PiΠ with slope λ\lambdaλ. The formalization must handle the boundary cases the book glosses over, where λ=0\lambda = 0λ=0 or λ=1\lambda = 1λ=1 and one party is indifferent among all quantities, so "the same QQQ maximizes" holds only in one direction. Theorem 14.5 also needs Π(Q0)≤μ(r−c)\Pi(Q_0) \le \mu(r - c)Π(Q0​)≤μ(r−c), a Jensen-type bound S(Q)≤min⁡{Q,μ}S(Q) \le \min\{Q, \mu\}S(Q)≤min{Q,μ}, for b1>0b_1 > 0b1​>0, and the ordering b1<b2b_1 < b_2b1​<b2​ needs Π(Q0)>0\Pi(Q_0) > 0Π(Q0​)>0, which the book's proof does not isolate.

Formalization scope

Demand is an arbitrary probability law on R\mathbb{R}R with finite mean, not assumed nonnegative; the book's own examples use normal demand. Optimal quantities are maximizers over all of R\mathbb{R}R (IsMaxOn … Set.univ), and coordination is the coincidence of maximizer sets, with the degenerate endpoints of the parameter ranges stated as one-directional. Where the book uses a density, continuity of the distribution function (NullSingletonClass) is assumed instead, except in Theorem 14.3, where the density fff is explicit, continuous on [0,∞)[0, \infty)[0,∞) (so the exponential law is included), positive on (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞), and IGFR on (0,∞)(0, \infty)(0,∞). Strict monotonicity of FFF on R\mathbb{R}R is never assumed, since it would rule out every nonnegative demand law. Theorem 14.1 assumes ps>0p_s > 0ps​>0 and a positive chain optimum, Fˉ(0)>(c−v)/(r−v+p)\bar F(0) > (c - v)/(r - v + p)Fˉ(0)>(c−v)/(r−v+p), both implicit in the book's proof.

The transfer payments are functions of QQQ and the profits are defined for every QQQ, so the theorems compare values of one family of functions; the book's Fˉ\bar FFˉ is 1−F1 - F1−F with Mathlib's cdf, and the quantity flexibility integral is an interval integral. Theorem 14.5 takes Π(Q0)>0\Pi(Q_0) > 0Π(Q0​)>0, μ>0\mu > 0μ>0 and ps,pr>0p_s, p_r > 0ps​,pr​>0 as hypotheses. Without positive goodwill costs its strict inequalities 0<b10 < b_10<b1​ and b2<r−v+prb_2 < r - v + p_rb2​<r−v+pr​ fail (at ps=0p_s = 0ps​=0, b1=0b_1 = 0b1​=0; at pr=0p_r = 0pr​=0, b2=r−v+prb_2 = r - v + p_rb2​=r−v+pr​).

The definition module is shared by all eleven items. The equivalence (14.42)-(14.43) of revenue sharing and buyback, the supplier's stationarity under quantity flexibility (Problem 14.11) and the allocation results for revenue sharing (14.40)-(14.41) are natural extensions on the same definitions.

Selected references

  • L. V. Snyder and Z.-J. M. Shen, Fundamentals of Supply Chain Theory, 2nd ed., Wiley, 2019, Chapter 14. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119584445
  • B. A. Pasternack, Optimal pricing and return policies for perishable commodities, Marketing Science 4(2), 1985. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.4.2.166
  • G. P. Cachon, Supply chain coordination with contracts, in Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science 11, 2003. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0927-0507(03)11006-7
  • M. A. Lariviere and E. L. Porteus, Selling to the newsvendor: an analysis of price-only contracts, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 3(4), 2001. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.3.4.293.9971
  • G. P. Cachon and M. A. Lariviere, Supply chain coordination with revenue-sharing contracts, Management Science 51(1), 2005. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0215
  • J. J. Spengler, Vertical integration and antitrust policy, Journal of Political Economy 58(4), 1950. https://doi.org/10.1086/256964
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Supermodularity and Complementarity VI: The Core of a Convex GameTextbook

Motivation

A cooperative game with side payments models a set of economic agents who can form coalitions and split the proceeds. The central question is stability: is there a way to split the total payoff among all the players so that no subset of them would do better by breaking away and acting on its own? The set of such stable splits is the core, introduced by Gillies [1959] and studied extensively since (Shapley [1971], Shapley [1953]). Sharkey [1982c] surveys the core's role in the economics of natural monopoly, where "no coalition wants to secede" is exactly the condition that a cost-sharing scheme is defensible against any subgroup of customers.

The core of an arbitrary cooperative game can be empty — there may be no split that satisfies every coalition simultaneously — and even when nonempty it can be hard to exhibit a point in it, since it is cut out by 2n2^n2n linear inequalities. Shapley [1971] identified a large and economically natural class, the convex games (characteristic functions that are supermodular in the coalition), for which the core is always nonempty, and for which an explicit family of core points — one per ordering of the players — can be written down directly. This mission formalizes Shapley's theorem and its later sharpening: this book's central result of Chapter 5, together with a genuine converse (Moulin [1990], sharpening an observation of Sharkey [1982a]) and comparative-statics theorem (Topkis [1987]) showing how these core points move as the underlying economics changes.

Setting

Fix a finite set of players N={1,…,n}N = \{1,\dots,n\}N={1,…,n}. A characteristic function fff assigns a real number f(S)f(S)f(S) to every coalition S⊆NS \subseteq NS⊆N, with f(∅)=0f(\emptyset) = 0f(∅)=0; f(S)f(S)f(S) is the net return a coalition SSS could earn on its own. The pair (N,f)(N,f)(N,f) is a cooperative game, and throughout this chapter fff is assumed superadditive: f(S′)+f(S′′)≤f(S′∪S′′)f(S') + f(S'') \le f(S' \cup S'')f(S′)+f(S′′)≤f(S′∪S′′) for disjoint S′,S′′S', S''S′,S′′. A payoff vector y∈RNy \in \mathbb{R}^Ny∈RN is feasible if ∑i∈Nyi=f(N)\sum_{i \in N} y_i = f(N)∑i∈N​yi​=f(N), and acceptable if ∑i∈Syi≥f(S)\sum_{i \in S} y_i \ge f(S)∑i∈S​yi​≥f(S) for every coalition SSS. The core is the set of payoff vectors that are both:

Core(N,f)={y∈RN:∑i∈Nyi=f(N) and f(S)≤∑i∈Syi ∀S⊆N}.\mathrm{Core}(N,f) = \Big\{ y \in \mathbb{R}^N : \sum_{i \in N} y_i = f(N) \text{ and } f(S) \le \sum_{i \in S} y_i \ \forall S \subseteq N \Big\}.Core(N,f)={y∈RN:i∈N∑​yi​=f(N) and f(S)≤i∈S∑​yi​ ∀S⊆N}.

(N,f)(N,f)(N,f) is a convex game if fff is supermodular on the Boolean lattice of coalitions: f(S)+f(S′)≤f(S∪S′)+f(S∩S′)f(S) + f(S') \le f(S \cup S') + f(S \cap S')f(S)+f(S′)≤f(S∪S′)+f(S∩S′) for all S,S′S, S'S,S′. ("Convex" is the game-theory literature's name for this supermodularity property; it has no relation to convexity of sets or of real functions, a collision the book itself flags.) Equivalently, by Theorem 2.6.1/2.6.4, a game is convex exactly when the marginal value f(S∪{i})−f(S)f(S \cup \{i\}) - f(S)f(S∪{i})−f(S) of any player iii to any coalition SSS not containing iii increases as SSS grows — the more players already committed to a project, the more valuable one more player is to it.

Given a permutation π\piπ of NNN, let Sπ(j)={π(1),…,π(j)}S_\pi(j) = \{\pi(1),\dots,\pi(j)\}Sπ​(j)={π(1),…,π(j)}. The greedy algorithm builds the payoff vector yπy^\piyπ by paying each player its marginal contribution when added in the order π\piπ: yπ(j)π=f(Sπ(j))−f(Sπ(j−1))y^\pi_{\pi(j)} = f(S_\pi(j)) - f(S_\pi(j-1))yπ(j)π​=f(Sπ​(j))−f(Sπ​(j−1)). The Shapley value pays player iii the average of yiπy^\pi_iyiπ​ over all n!n!n! permutations π\piπ, equivalently ∑S⊆N∖{i}∣S∣!(n−∣S∣−1)!n!(f(S∪{i})−f(S))\sum_{S \subseteq N\setminus\{i\}} \frac{|S|!(n-|S|-1)!}{n!}(f(S\cup\{i\}) - f(S))∑S⊆N∖{i}​n!∣S∣!(n−∣S∣−1)!​(f(S∪{i})−f(S)).

A core is large if every acceptable payoff vector is dominated, coordinatewise, by one in the core; a subgame (N′,f)(N',f)(N′,f) restricts fff to subsets of N′⊆NN' \subseteq NN′⊆N; a core is totally large if the core of every subgame is large.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 5.2.1 (Shapley [1971])

if (N,f) is a convex game, then for every permutation π, yπ∈Core(N,f);Core(N,f)≠∅;Shapley value∈Core(N,f).\text{if } (N,f) \text{ is a convex game, then for every permutation } \pi,\ y^\pi \in \mathrm{Core}(N,f); \quad \mathrm{Core}(N,f) \ne \emptyset; \quad \text{Shapley value} \in \mathrm{Core}(N,f).if (N,f) is a convex game, then for every permutation π, yπ∈Core(N,f);Core(N,f)=∅;Shapley value∈Core(N,f).

The weakest stable statement here is already the union of these three claims: nonemptiness of the core (b) is a formal consequence of (a) for any single permutation, and (c) is a genuinely separate fact about the average of the yπy^\piyπ's, not implied by (a) and (b) alone.

Milestones

  • Lemma 5.2.1(a): ∑i∈Sπ(j)yiπ=f(Sπ(j))\sum_{i \in S_\pi(j)} y^\pi_i = f(S_\pi(j))∑i∈Sπ​(j)​yiπ​=f(Sπ​(j)) for every j=1,…,nj = 1,\dots,nj=1,…,n — the partial-sum identity the goal's proof of acceptability is built on.
  • Theorem 5.2.6 (Moulin [1990]): a cooperative game is convex if and only if its core is totally large — the converse direction that a large core alone (Theorem 5.2.1's easy corollary) does not give.
  • Theorem 5.2.7(a,b) (Topkis [1987]): if the characteristic function ftf^tft of a family of games has increasing differences in a parameter ttt (a complementary parameter), the greedy payoff vector and the Shapley value both increase in ttt.

Significance

Theorem 5.2.1 is the reason convex games are the tractable case of cooperative game theory: it turns an existence question about 2n2^n2n linear inequalities into an explicit construction (any ordering of the players gives a point in the core), and it identifies the Shapley value — an axiomatically motivated but a priori only feasible payoff rule — as one that always respects every coalition's participation constraint on this class. Theorem 5.2.6 shows this is not an accident of the sufficient condition: total largeness of the core is a genuine characterization of convexity, so "does every subgame's core dominate every acceptable vector" is an equivalent, purely core-theoretic way to test convexity. Theorem 5.2.7 gives the comparative statics that make convex games useful in applied models (Chapter 5's later sections build monopoly, surplus sharing, and procurement games on exactly this apparatus): as a game's characteristic function improves in a complementary way with some parameter (a price, a technology level, a capacity), every player's greedy payoff and Shapley value improve monotonically, with no separate argument needed for each application.

Formalizing this mission produces, for the first time on the platform, machine-checked statements of the core, convex games, the greedy algorithm and the Shapley value — definitions that later missions in this series's own polyhedral-structure sections, and any future cooperative-game-theory mission, can reuse rather than re-derive. All three results already have a complete proof in the literature; this mission's remaining work is formalizing that known argument, not any open mathematics.

Difficulty

The routine first idea — check acceptability for the greedy vector one subset at a time using only the definition of supermodularity — does not directly work: Theorem 5.2.1(a)'s proof needs to compare a subset S′S'S′ against the initial coalitions Sπ(j)S_\pi(j)Sπ​(j) built by the particular permutation π\piπ, splitting S′S'S′ by the first and last time one of its elements appears in π\piπ's order and applying supermodularity along the resulting chain, not a single inequality. Theorem 5.2.6's converse direction is the harder half: showing a totally large core forces supermodularity requires constructing an auxiliary characteristic function g(S)=max⁡S⊆S′⊆N(f(S′)−∑i∈S′yi′′)g(S) = \max_{S \subseteq S' \subseteq N} \big(f(S') - \sum_{i \in S'} y''_i\big)g(S)=maxS⊆S′⊆N​(f(S′)−∑i∈S′​yi′′​) from an arbitrary acceptable vector y′′y''y′′ and showing ggg is itself supermodular (via Theorem 2.6.4 and Theorem 2.7.6, results from the earlier monotone-comparative-statics chapter this mission depends on) before the argument closes.

Formalization scope

Players are modeled as Fin n and a characteristic function as f : Finset (Fin n) → ℝ; a payoff vector is y : Fin n → ℝ, and the core's feasibility and acceptability conditions are stated with respect to Finset.univ (the whole player set) or a coalition U : Finset (Fin n) for a subgame, never approximated by a finite sample of coalitions or by feasibility alone — the acceptability condition genuinely quantifies over every subset. The Shapley value's coefficient is the exact rational weight S.card.factorial * (n - S.card - 1).factorial / n.factorial cast to ℝ, not a placeholder constant. The greedy algorithm's InitialCoalition σ j uses Lean's 0-indexed Equiv.Perm (Fin n) throughout, with the book's 1-indexed Sπ(j)S_\pi(j)Sπ​(j) absorbed into the definition rather than into the index j, so the definition and the goal read the same j consistently. Theorem 5.2.7(c), which needs Theorem 5.2.4's convex-combination-of-extreme-points machinery beyond this section, is out of scope for this mission.

A trivializing formalization would state acceptability only on singleton coalitions, or would let n = 0/an empty player set stand in for the general case; neither is used here — every Core/IsLargeCore statement quantifies over arbitrary subsets, and none of the theorems restrict n.

This mission reuses Supermodularity.Monotonicity.SupermodularOn and Supermodularity.Monotonicity.IncreasingDifferencesOn from this series's chunk II (02-monotonicity) rather than restating supermodularity or increasing differences for coalitions from scratch. InitialCoalition, Core, GreedyPayoff, IsConvexGame, IsLargeCore, IsTotallyLargeCore and ShapleyValue are new to this mission and reusable by any later mission on cooperative games, polymatroids, or the polyhedral structure of the core (Section 5.2.3 of this chapter). Contributions completing the sorrys — Theorem 5.2.1(a)'s chain-splitting argument, Theorem 5.2.6's auxiliary-function construction, and Theorem 5.2.7(a,b)'s direct comparison — are all welcome.

Selected references

  • L. S. Shapley, "Cores of convex games," International Journal of Game Theory, 1(1), 1971, 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01753431
  • L. S. Shapley, "A value for n-person games," in Contributions to the Theory of Games II, Princeton University Press, 1953, 307–317.
  • H. Moulin, "Cores and large cores when population varies," International Journal of Game Theory, 19(3), 1990, 219–232. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766437
  • W. W. Sharkey, "Cooperative games with large cores," International Journal of Game Theory, 11(3-4), 1982, 175–182. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766193
  • D. M. Topkis, "Activity optimization games with complementarity," European Journal of Operational Research, 28(3), 1987, 358–368. https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(87)90232-5
  • D. M. Topkis, Supermodularity and Complementarity, Princeton University Press, 2011, Chapter 5. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400822539
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Operations ResearchOptimization·Captain: naimengye

Stochastic Networks IV: Decentralized Optimization and Wardrop EquilibriaTextbook

Motivation

A network of resistors solves an optimization problem. Nobody tells the electrons what to do; each one moves under a purely local rule, and the current distribution that emerges minimizes energy dissipation over all distributions satisfying Kirchhoff's node law. Add a wire and the network can only become easier to traverse. This is the encouraging case, and Chapter 4 of Frank Kelly and Elena Yudovina's Stochastic Networks (Cambridge University Press, 2014) opens with it.

Road traffic is the discouraging case. Drivers also follow a local rule — take the fastest route — and the pattern that emerges is again characterized by an optimization problem, but not the one anyone wants solved. Braess's paradox is the sharp form of the discrepancy: in a small road network carrying six cars per unit time, every route takes 83 time units at equilibrium; open an extra road, and at the new equilibrium every route takes 92. Building road capacity made everyone slower. The difference from the electrical case is that a driver's choice imposes a delay on everyone else sharing the road and the driver does not pay for it, and correcting that — pricing the externality — is how a decentralized rule can be made to produce good global behaviour. That idea recurs in Chapters 7 and 8 of the book as the basis of Internet congestion control.

Setting

The network is a set J\mathcal{J}J of JJJ directed links. A route rrr is a subset of links, and R\mathcal{R}R is the set of RRR routes under consideration — not necessarily all physically possible ones. The link-route incidence matrix AAA has Ajr=1A_{jr}=1Ajr​=1 when j∈rj \in rj∈r and Ajr=0A_{jr}=0Ajr​=0 otherwise. Writing xrx_rxr​ for the flow on route rrr, the flow on link jjj is

yj=∑rAjrxr,that is y=Ax.y_j=\sum_{r}A_{jr}x_r, \qquad\text{that is } y = Ax.yj​=r∑​Ajr​xr​,that is y=Ax.

Each link has a delay function Dj(yj)D_j(y_j)Dj​(yj​), continuous and increasing in the flow on that link, and the delay along a route is the sum of the delays of its links, ∑jDj(yj)Ajr\sum_j D_j(y_j)A_{jr}∑j​Dj​(yj​)Ajr​. Drivers care only about getting from origin to destination: S\mathcal{S}S is the set of source–destination pairs, each route rrr serves exactly one of them, written s(r)s(r)s(r), and the flow requirement between pair σ\sigmaσ is fσf_\sigmafσ​.

A routing pattern is stable when no driver has an incentive to switch. Definition 4.2 makes this precise: a Wardrop equilibrium is a feasible vector of route flows xxx such that

xr>0  ⟹  ∑jDj(yj)Ajr=min⁡r′∈s(r)∑jDj(yj)Ajr′,y=Ax.x_r>0 \;\Longrightarrow\; \sum_{j}D_j(y_j)A_{jr}=\min_{r'\in s(r)}\sum_{j}D_j(y_j)A_{jr'}, \qquad y = Ax .xr​>0⟹j∑​Dj​(yj​)Ajr​=r′∈s(r)min​j∑​Dj​(yj​)Ajr′​,y=Ax.

Every route actually carrying traffic is a shortest route, in delay, for the traffic it carries.

Formalization targets

Goal — Theorem 4.3, a Wardrop equilibrium exists

∃ x≥0  with Hx=f  such that x is a Wardrop equilibrium.\exists\, x \ge 0 \ \text{ with } Hx=f \ \text{ such that } x \text{ is a Wardrop equilibrium.}∃x≥0  with Hx=f  such that x is a Wardrop equilibrium.

The goal asserts existence only, for an arbitrary network, arbitrary route set and arbitrary continuous increasing delay functions. It fixes no uniqueness claim, because the equilibrium flows need not be unique even though the link loads are, and no efficiency claim, because Braess's paradox is precisely the statement that the equilibrium is not efficient.

Supporting levels

Kirchhoff's node law as the equations satisfied by the expected reward in the random-walk game of section 4.1; the two Braess networks of Figures 4.4a and 4.4b, with their equilibrium delays 838383 and 929292; convexity of ∫0yD(u) du\int_0^{y}D(u)\,du∫0y​D(u)du for increasing DDD; the optimization characterization that makes the goal reachable — a minimizer of ∑j∫0yjDj(u) du\sum_j\int_0^{y_j}D_j(u)\,du∑j​∫0yj​​Dj​(u)du over the feasible flows is a Wardrop equilibrium; and the exact externality decomposition of the queueing network of section 4.3.1.

Significance

The result itself. Theorem 4.3 is what makes the Wardrop equilibrium a usable object: a traffic model that could fail to have an equilibrium would be describing nothing. Its proof does more than establish existence — it identifies the equilibrium as the solution of a specific convex program, minimizing ∑j∫0yjDj(u) du\sum_j\int_0^{y_j}D_j(u)\,du∑j​∫0yj​​Dj​(u)du. That function is not the total delay ∑jyjDj(yj)\sum_j y_jD_j(y_j)∑j​yj​Dj​(yj​), and the gap between the two is exactly Braess's paradox: selfish routing optimizes the wrong objective. Once the two objectives are written side by side, the fix is readable off them, and it is the fix used in practice — a toll on link jjj equal to yjDj′(yj)y_jD_j'(y_j)yj​Dj′​(yj​), the marginal delay a driver imposes on everyone else, makes the selfish objective coincide with the social one. Section 4.3 then carries the same accounting into queueing and loss networks, where the derivative of the mean cost splits into a term for the delay a customer suffers and a term for the knock-on cost it inflicts.

Formalizing it. Nothing here is open; Wardrop stated the principle in 1952 and Beckmann, McGuire and Winsten gave the optimization formulation in 1956. What the mission produces is a machine-checked model of selfish routing — incidence matrix, link flows, delay functions, the equilibrium condition — and a formal record of Braess's paradox as a concrete pair of networks rather than a story. Mathlib has no traffic or congestion-game theory.

Difficulty

Existence is not a fixed-point argument in the obvious variable: the best-response map of the routing game is not continuous, since a small change in flows can flip which route is shortest and move all the traffic. The book's route is to replace the equilibrium condition by the stationarity conditions of a convex program on a compact feasible set, where existence is routine and the content is the translation. The translation is where the care is needed, and it is stated here as a separate milestone: the first-order conditions say the Lagrange multiplier λs(r)\lambda_{s(r)}λs(r)​ equals the route delay on routes carrying traffic and is a lower bound on the others, which is Definition 4.2 restated.

The subtlety worth naming in advance is that "increasing" is doing real work in two different places. It makes ∫0yD(u) du\int_0^{y}D(u)\,du∫0y​D(u)du convex, which is what makes the program tractable; and it is what makes each Dj(yj)D_j(y_j)Dj​(yj​) interpretable as a price. Neither convexity of DjD_jDj​ itself nor strict monotonicity is needed, and assuming them would be assuming more than the book does.

Formalization scope

Links, routes and source–destination pairs are indexed by finite types. The incidence matrix is real-valued with entries constrained to be 000 or 111, matching the book's definition in this chapter (unlike Chapter 3, which allows general non-negative integers). The map from routes to source–destination pairs is given as a function sss rather than as the matrix HHH, which is exactly the book's statement that each column of HHH sums to 111.

Delay functions are total functions R→R\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}R→R, continuous and monotone. This excludes the vertical asymptote that Figure 4.5 permits — a link with a finite capacity at which delay blows up — and that restriction is recorded here rather than left implicit. The equilibrium condition is stated as the inequality "delay on r≤delay on r′\text{delay on } r \le \text{delay on } r'delay on r≤delay on r′ for every r′r'r′ serving the same pair", which is Definition 4.2 with the minimum written out; the two are equivalent because rrr itself serves s(r)s(r)s(r), and the inequality form avoids having to produce a minimum over a possibly empty set.

The goal is not vacuous: the feasibility hypotheses (fσ≥0f_\sigma\ge0fσ​≥0, and each source–destination pair served by at least one route) are exactly what makes the feasible set non-empty, and without them the existence claim would be false rather than trivial.

Contributions welcome beyond the listed items: uniqueness of the equilibrium link loads yyy; the marginal-cost toll that aligns the selfish and social optima; Rayleigh monotonicity (Exercise 4.3, that effective resistance does not decrease when a resistance is increased); the price of anarchy for affine delays; and Theorem 4.6 on the derivatives of the loss-network rate of return with respect to offered traffic and capacity.

Selected references

  • Frank Kelly and Elena Yudovina, Stochastic Networks, Cambridge University Press, 2014, Chapter 4 (pp. 85–107); Definition 4.2, Theorem 4.3, sections 4.1–4.3. DOI 10.1017/cbo9781139565363
  • J. G. Wardrop, Some theoretical aspects of road traffic research, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 1 (1952), 325–362. DOI 10.1680/ipeds.1952.11259
  • M. Beckmann, C. B. McGuire and C. B. Winsten, Studies in the Economics of Transportation, Yale University Press, 1956.
  • D. Braess, Über ein Paradoxon aus der Verkehrsplanung, Unternehmensforschung 12 (1968), 258–268. DOI 10.1007/BF01918335
  • Peter Doyle and J. Laurie Snell, Random Walks and Electric Networks, Mathematical Association of America, 1984. arXiv:math/0001057
  • R. G. Gallager, A minimum delay routing algorithm using distributed computation, IEEE Transactions on Communications 25 (1977), 73–85. DOI 10.1109/TCOM.1977.1093711
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Theoretical Computer Science·Captain: Shuze Chen

Algorithmic Game Theory II: No-Regret Learning and Correlated EquilibriaTextbook

Motivation

Equilibrium concepts are static; play is dynamic. The bridge between the two is regret minimization: simple adaptive rules that, against arbitrary — even adversarial — opponents, perform nearly as well as the best fixed alternative in hindsight. The subject begins with Hannan (1957) and Blackwell (1956), whose consistency theorems predate most of computational learning theory; the modern multiplicative-weights style bounds are due to Littlestone–Warmuth (1994) and Freund–Schapire (1997); the reduction from external to swap regret, and with it the algorithmic route to correlated equilibria, is Blum–Mansour (2005), following Foster–Vohra (1997) and Hart–Mas-Colell (2000). Chapter 4 of Nisan–Roughgarden–Tardos–Vazirani (eds.), Algorithmic Game Theory (Cambridge, 2007), written by Blum and Mansour, is the source text of this mission.

The punchline of the chapter, and of this mission, is that a computationally trivial form of rationality — each player privately running a no-swap-regret algorithm — drives the empirical play of any finite game into an approximate correlated equilibrium (Aumann, 1974). No coordination, no knowledge of the game, no fixed-point computation: the equilibrium concept that Chapter 1 of the series defines through a correlating device is reached by decentralized learning.

Setting

The online model (§4.2): there are NNN actions. At each time ttt an online algorithm selects a distribution ptp^tpt over actions, as a function of the loss vectors observed so far; then the adversary reveals a loss vector ℓt∈[0,1]N\ell^t \in [0,1]^Nℓt∈[0,1]N and the algorithm suffers ∑ipitℓit\sum_i p^t_i \ell^t_i∑i​pit​ℓit​. Cumulatively, LHT=∑t≤T∑ipitℓitL_H^T = \sum_{t \le T} \sum_i p^t_i \ell^t_iLHT​=∑t≤T​∑i​pit​ℓit​ and LkT=∑t≤TℓktL_k^T = \sum_{t \le T} \ell^t_kLkT​=∑t≤T​ℓkt​ for a fixed action kkk. The external regret of HHH is LHT−min⁡kLkTL_H^T - \min_k L_k^TLHT​−mink​LkT​. A modification rule F:{1,…,N}→{1,…,N}F : \{1,\dots,N\} \to \{1,\dots,N\}F:{1,…,N}→{1,…,N} rewires the algorithm's play, giving the modified loss LH,FT=∑t∑ipit ℓF(i)tL_{H,F}^T = \sum_t \sum_i p^t_i\, \ell^t_{F(i)}LH,FT​=∑t​∑i​pit​ℓF(i)t​; the swap regret is LHT−min⁡FLH,FTL_H^T - \min_F L_{H,F}^TLHT​−minF​LH,FT​ over all NNN^NNN rules.

A finite game (the vocabulary of Mission I of this series, in loss form): players ι\iotaι, finite action sets SiS_iSi​, cost functions ci:∏jSj→Rc_i : \prod_j S_j \to \mathbb{R}ci​:∏j​Sj​→R. A joint distribution QQQ on action vectors is an ε\varepsilonε-correlated equilibrium (Definition 4.11) if for every player iii and every switching rule F:Si→SiF : S_i \to S_iF:Si​→Si​,

Es∼Q[ci(s)]  ≤  Es∼Q[ci(F(si),s−i)]+ε.\mathbb{E}_{s \sim Q}\big[c_i(s)\big] \;\le\; \mathbb{E}_{s \sim Q}\big[c_i(F(s_i), s_{-i})\big] + \varepsilon.Es∼Q​[ci​(s)]≤Es∼Q​[ci​(F(si​),s−i​)]+ε.

Formalization targets

Goal (capstone) — Corollary 4.16, explicit form

∀N,T ∃H:swap regret of H on every [0,1]-loss sequence  ≤  2NTln⁡N.\forall N, T\ \exists H:\quad \text{swap regret of } H \text{ on every } [0,1]\text{-loss sequence} \;\le\; 2N\sqrt{T \ln N}.∀N,T ∃H:swap regret of H on every [0,1]-loss sequence≤2NTlnN​.

An online algorithm with vanishing per-round swap regret, with the constant the chapter's own route produces.

Theorem 4.6 — Polynomial Weights

LPWT  ≤  LkT+η QkT+ln⁡Nη,QkT=∑t≤T(ℓkt)2,0<η≤12.L_{PW}^T \;\le\; L_k^T + \eta\, Q_k^T + \frac{\ln N}{\eta}, \qquad Q_k^T = \sum_{t\le T} (\ell^t_k)^2, \quad 0 < \eta \le \tfrac12.LPWT​≤LkT​+ηQkT​+ηlnN​,QkT​=t≤T∑​(ℓkt​)2,0<η≤21​.

Theorem 4.9 — external regret in constant-sum games

A player with external regret RRR over TTT rounds has average loss at most vi+R/Tv_i + R/Tvi​+R/T, where viv_ivi​ is the game value — no-regret play guarantees the minimax value against any opponent.

Theorem 4.15 — external-to-swap reduction

Any algorithm with external regret ≤R\le R≤R on all [0,1][0,1][0,1]-loss sequences yields one with swap regret ≤NR\le N R≤NR.

Theorem 4.12 — swap regret bounds distance from correlated equilibrium

If every player's swap regret over TTT steps of mixed play is at most RRR, the empirical joint distribution is an (R/T)(R/T)(R/T)-correlated equilibrium.

Theorem 4.3 — deterministic algorithms fail

Every deterministic algorithm has a {0,1}\{0,1\}{0,1}-loss sequence forcing loss TTT while some action loses at most ⌊T/N⌋\lfloor T/N \rfloor⌊T/N⌋: randomization is necessary, not a convenience.

Significance

Correlated equilibrium is the equilibrium concept with a defensible dynamic foundation: Nash equilibria are PPAD-hard to find, but the capstone plus Theorem 4.12 exhibit polynomial-time decentralized dynamics whose empirical play is an ε\varepsilonε-correlated equilibrium after T=O(N2ln⁡N/ε2)T = O(N^2 \ln N / \varepsilon^2)T=O(N2lnN/ε2) rounds. Later missions in this series lean on this machinery: the price-of-anarchy chapters bound the cost of no-regret play (not just of exact equilibria), and the routing-game chapter uses precisely the convergence result formalized here.

Formalizing it produces the platform's first online-learning library: the adversarial protocol, regret in both external and swap forms, the multiplicative-weights analysis, and correlated equilibria. The regret vocabulary is directly reusable for the bandit-flavored missions already on the platform. All results are classical, with textbook proofs; the work requested is machine-checked proof, not new mathematics.

Difficulty

The Polynomial Weights bound is a potential-function argument: the total weight WtW^tWt falls geometrically with the algorithm's loss and is bounded below by the weight of action kkk; the formal work is inequalities for ln⁡(1−x)\ln(1-x)ln(1−x) on [0,1/2][0, 1/2][0,1/2] and careful bookkeeping of the recursion. The reduction (Theorem 4.15) is the structurally interesting step: the master algorithm runs NNN copies of the external-regret procedure, feeds copy iii the true losses scaled by the master's own probability pitp^t_ipit​, and — the crux — plays the stationary distribution pt=ptQtp^t = p^t Q^tpt=ptQt of the column-stochastic matrix assembled from the copies' outputs. Existence of that fixed point is exactly the existence of a stationary distribution of a finite Markov chain, available on this platform as the goal of Markov Chains and Mixing Times I — or provable directly. Theorem 4.12 is an averaging argument, deliberately easy; Theorem 4.3 is an adversary construction; Theorem 4.9 combines the regret bound with the security level the minimax theorem of Mission I supplies, through the opponent's empirical mixture. The capstone is the composition of 4.6 (tuned at η=min⁡{ln⁡N/T,1/2}\eta = \min\{\sqrt{\ln N / T}, 1/2\}η=min{lnN/T​,1/2}) with 4.15, plus the arithmetic that turns N⋅2Tln⁡NN \cdot 2\sqrt{T \ln N}N⋅2TlnN​ into the stated bound.

Formalization scope

An online algorithm is a deterministic function from the observed history (the list of past loss vectors) to the mixed action played next — the standard formal reading of the full-information model; randomization lives in the mixed action, and losses are expected losses. Boundedness of losses ([0,1][0,1][0,1]) is a hypothesis on theorems, never part of a definition. The Polynomial Weights algorithm is defined concretely by its weight recursion, and its learning rate carries the hypothesis 0<η≤1/20 < \eta \le 1/20<η≤1/2: the book writes only η≤1/2\eta \le 1/2η≤1/2, but at η=0\eta = 0η=0 the bound's ln⁡N/η\ln N / \etalnN/η term degenerates and the claim is false, so positivity is explicit. Action sets are Fin (n+1), keeping them nonempty. The number of steps TTT is a known parameter (the book's convention; guess-and-double is out of scope). Correlated equilibria use the switching-rule form of Definition 4.11, over the game vocabulary (IsLottery, IsMixedProfile, profileProb) published with Mission I of this series. In Theorem 4.12 the empirical distribution is the average of product distributions of the played profiles, T≥1T \ge 1T≥1 is required (at T=0T = 0T=0 there is no empirical distribution), and costs are not assumed bounded — the averaging is scale-free.

Trivializing readings are ruled out: the existential algorithms in Theorem 4.15 and the capstone are quantified before the loss sequence and the modification rule, so a witness must work uniformly against every adversary — nothing may be chosen with hindsight.

Selected references

  • A. Blum, Y. Mansour, From external to internal regret, JMLR 8 (2007), 1307–1324. Link
  • N. Littlestone, M. K. Warmuth, The weighted majority algorithm, Information and Computation 108 (1994), 212–261. DOI
  • D. P. Foster, R. V. Vohra, Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium, Games and Economic Behavior 21 (1997), 40–55. DOI
  • S. Hart, A. Mas-Colell, A simple adaptive procedure leading to correlated equilibrium, Econometrica 68 (2000), 1127–1150. DOI
  • N. Nisan, T. Roughgarden, É. Tardos, V. V. Vazirani (eds.), Algorithmic Game Theory, Cambridge University Press, 2007, Chapter 4. DOI
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Is Personalized Pricing Profitable When Firms Can Differentiate? II: If Personalized Pricing Is Decided Before Positioning, Neither Firm Adopts It at Any Cost F ≥ 0Research Paper

Why the timing of personalized pricing matters

Firms can use information about individual customers to quote different prices. That ability changes their price competition, but it can also change where they locate their products or services in a market. For a firm deciding whether to invest in personalized pricing (PP), the order of those decisions matters: a positioning choice made after the investment can respond to a rival's new pricing capability. Li, Wang and Nault study this issue in a two-firm location game. In their August 3, 2021 manuscript, Section 6 reverses the timing of their basic model: firms decide whether to acquire PP before choosing positions. This mission concerns that Section 6 result, Proposition 5, rather than the similarly titled result as it may appear in the later Management Science article.

The question has a direct strategic interpretation. A technology can be useful in a pricing contest at fixed locations yet be unattractive when both firms can subsequently reposition. The mission asks for a precise equilibrium statement covering every nonnegative implementation cost, including the costless case. The three positioning subgames and the implementation payoff table are part of the target because they determine what an initial PP choice earns. The paper states these outcomes on pages 23–25 of the manuscript.

Market and game

Consumers form a unit mass uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Each consumer buys one unit from one of two firms, A and B. Firm iii chooses a real position xix_ixi​; locations outside the consumer interval are allowed. A consumer at xxx faces a quadratic misfit cost t(x−xi)2t(x-x_i)^2t(x−xi​)2, where t>0t>0t>0, in addition to the firm's price. The reservation value is assumed large enough for the whole market to buy. It therefore cancels from the gross profit expressions used here. These conventions come from Section 3.

A firm choosing PP can quote a price to each consumer according to that consumer's location. A firm choosing U quotes one uniform price. PP incurs a fixed cost F≥0F\ge0F≥0. In the game studied here, the firms simultaneously decide between PP and U first, simultaneously choose real positions second, and compete in prices third. If exactly one firm has PP, the uniform-price firm posts its price before the PP firm sets its targeted prices. If both firms make the same PP choice, prices are set simultaneously. The cost FFF is sunk by the positioning stage and is deducted only when stage-1 net payoffs are computed.

Write ai(x)=t(x−xj)2−t(x−xi)2a_i(x)=t(x-x_j)^2-t(x-x_i)^2ai​(x)=t(x−xj​)2−t(x−xi​)2 for the misfit advantage of firm iii over firm jjj at equal prices. With PP at both firms, firm iii's gross profit is the integral of max⁡{0,ai(x)}\max\{0,a_i(x)\}max{0,ai​(x)} over consumers. With one PP firm, the uniform-price leader chooses a price maximizing its price times the measure of consumers it serves; the targeted follower obtains the remaining gross profit. With two uniform prices, demand comes from consumers who prefer each firm's full price, with equal division at a tie. Positioning equilibria compare each firm's profit with moves to every real location, with the appropriate pricing continuation. The construction matches the pricing cases in Section 4 and Appendix A.

Formalization targets

The benchmark with two uniform-price firms places A at −1/4-1/4−1/4 and B at 5/45/45/4, with both prices equal to 3t/23t/23t/2 and gross profit 3t/43t/43t/4 for each. With PP at both firms, the positioning subgame places them at 1/41/41/4 and 3/43/43/4, with gross profit t/8t/8t/8 each. When A alone has PP, it follows in the pricing stage and locates at −1/2-1/2−1/2, while B leads and locates at 1/21/21/2; their respective gross profits are t/4t/4t/4 and t/2t/2t/2. The reflected outcome applies when B alone has PP. These are the milestones from Sections 4 and 6.

Those outcomes give the stage-1 net payoff matrix, ordered as (A, B):

B:PPB:UA:PP(t/8−F, t/8−F)(t/4−F, t/2)A:U(t/2, t/4−F)(3t/4, 3t/4).\begin{array}{c|cc} & B:PP & B:U \\\hline A:PP & (t/8-F,\,t/8-F) & (t/4-F,\,t/2) \\ A:U & (t/2,\,t/4-F) & (3t/4,\,3t/4) \end{array}.A:PPA:U​B:PP(t/8−F,t/8−F)(t/2,t/4−F)​B:U(t/4−F,t/2)(3t/4,3t/4)​​.

The main target is Proposition 5: for every t>0t>0t>0 and F≥0F\ge0F≥0, both firms choose U in the equilibrium implementation game. The formal goal also states the pricing and positioning outcomes that generate this matrix, the existence of optimal uniform-leader prices in both asymmetric subgames, strict dominance of U, and uniqueness of the pure implementation equilibrium. The numerical constants belong to the source's specific quadratic-misfit model.

What the result establishes

The theorem separates the value of a pricing capability at fixed positions from its value in a game where competitors can reposition. In the paper's short-run positioning game, adopting PP cannot improve either firm's equilibrium implementation payoff: U is strictly preferred against either choice of the rival. The conclusion holds even when acquiring PP costs nothing. It also explains why the observed no-PP outcome has the same positions, prices and profits as the uniform-pricing benchmark. The manuscript discusses this contrast immediately after Proposition 5.

The result is proved in the source, while the Lean statements in this proposal remain open proof obligations. A complete formalization would connect consumer-level demand, pricing optimality, positioning equilibria, the payoff matrix and the final Nash equilibrium within one model. The price and position predicates can be reused for other timing rules or cost assumptions built on the same Hotelling market. This mission does not claim to formalize the paper's later welfare comparisons or the costly-PP regimes under the original positioning-first timing.

Where the difficulty lies

The payoff matrix makes the final comparison short, but treating the matrix as a definition would hide the economic claim. Each cell must instead come from an equilibrium of the appropriate pricing and positioning subgame. Uniform-pricing demand changes when the indifferent consumer reaches an endpoint, and a firm can move across its rival; an argument using only interior demand formulas or ordered positions cannot establish the full position equilibrium. In the one-PP subgame, the targeting firm can make a reflected location move that ties its equilibrium payoff, so the position comparison must allow equality. A leader may also have several optimal prices at coincident locations, which makes the choice of an off-path pricing continuation material.

Formalization scope

Lean uses real positions and prices, a two-element PP-choice type, Lebesgue measure for uniform consumer shares, and interval integrals for targeted gross profits. It assumes t>0t>0t>0, F≥0F\ge0F≥0, unit demand and full market coverage. PP cost appears only in net stage-1 payoffs. The reservation value is omitted because it cancels under full coverage. At a uniform-price tie, consumers are split equally; at a tie with a targeted follower, the follower serves the consumer. These rules make the demand functions defined even at coincident firm positions, although individual tie points have zero measure when positions differ.

The displayed closed-form prices require interior-demand conditions, stated explicitly on their milestone. Position deviations range over all of R\mathbb RR. The asymmetric positioning predicate requires an optimal pricing continuation after each deviation; this is a choice of continuation when the leader has multiple optima. It is recorded explicitly because the paper does not specify off-path tie selection. The goal's two asymmetric outcomes are mirror images under x↦1−xx\mapsto1-xx↦1−x, as the source's “without loss of generality” convention requires.

Gross profits are defined from consumer shares and integrals; stage-1 payoffs evaluate those primitives at the source's subgame positions. The target cannot be satisfied by inserting Table 1's numbers as payoff definitions, by restricting position deviations to ordered pairs, or by assuming the desired equilibrium as a hypothesis. Contributions to measurable demand, interval integration, leader optimality, the uniform and PP position games, and the reflected asymmetric game are all within scope.

Selected references

  • X. Li, X. (Shane) Wang and B. R. Nault, Is Personalized Pricing Profitable When Firms Can Differentiate?, manuscript submitted to Information Systems Research, August 3, 2021, SSRN abstract 3881900. Source for Sections 3–4, Section 6, Proposition 5, Table 1 and Appendix A.
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Is Personalized Pricing Profitable When Firms Can Differentiate? I: With Costless Personalized Pricing Both Firms Adopt It and Locate at 1/4 and 3/4, Each Earning t/8Research Paper

Motivation

Firms that collect data on individual consumers can price each one separately. This is personalized pricing (PP): targeted coupons, individualized offers, prices that depend on a customer's browsing or purchase history. Whether competing firms gain from this ability is a long-standing question in industrial organization. When firm positions are fixed, the classical answer is that they do not. Each firm adopts PP because it is individually rational, the targeted offers intensify price competition for every consumer, and both firms end up worse off: a prisoner's dilemma (Thisse and Vives 1988; Shaffer and Zhang 1995; Bester and Petrakis 1996; Choudhary et al. 2005).

Li, Wang and Nault ask what happens when firms also choose where to position their products, so that differentiation itself responds to the availability of PP. Their answer for the costless case is that PP makes things worse for the firms twice over. The firms still adopt it, and it also draws them towards the centre of the market, where competition is fiercest. This mission formalizes that result, Proposition 1 of their paper, together with the stage-3 and stage-2 analysis it rests on.

Setting

A unit mass of consumers is uniformly distributed on the interval [0,1][0,1][0,1]. Each buys one unit. The reservation value is large enough that every consumer buys, so the market is covered. Two firms AAA and BBB choose positions xA,xB∈Rx_A,x_B\in\mathbb RxA​,xB​∈R; positions outside [0,1][0,1][0,1] are allowed. A consumer at xxx who buys from firm jjj pays the price plus a misfit cost t(x−xj)2t(x-x_j)^2t(x−xj​)2, where t>0t>0t>0 measures taste heterogeneity. The misfit advantage of firm iii over firm jjj at xxx is

adv⁡t(xi,xj;x)=t(x−xj)2−t(x−xi)2,\operatorname{adv}_t(x_i,x_j;x)=t(x-x_j)^2-t(x-x_i)^2 ,advt​(xi​,xj​;x)=t(x−xj​)2−t(x−xi​)2,

the amount by which the consumer at xxx prefers iii to jjj at equal prices.

The game has three stages:

  1. the firms choose positions simultaneously;
  2. each firm decides whether to implement PP (here at zero cost);
  3. the firms set prices.

A firm without PP charges one uniform price; a firm with PP charges a price pj(x)p_j(x)pj​(x) to each consumer xxx. When both or neither firm has PP, prices are chosen simultaneously. When only one firm has PP, the uniform-price firm moves first and the targeting firm responds.

The three stage-3 outcomes are:

  • Both firms implement PP. Every consumer is contested à la Bertrand: the firm with the positive advantage charges that advantage and the other charges 000, so firm iii earns πtPP(xi,xj)=∫01max⁡{0,adv⁡t(xi,xj;x)} dx\pi^{PP}_t(x_i,x_j)=\int_0^1\max\{0,\operatorname{adv}_t(x_i,x_j;x)\}\,dxπtPP​(xi​,xj​)=∫01​max{0,advt​(xi​,xj​;x)}dx.
  • Only firm jjj implements PP. The leader iii charges ppp and keeps the consumers with p<adv⁡t(xi,xj;x)p<\operatorname{adv}_t(x_i,x_j;x)p<advt​(xi​,xj​;x); an indifferent consumer buys from the targeting firm. The leader earns ppp times that share, and an optimal leader price maximizes this over p∈Rp\in\mathbb Rp∈R. The follower charges each consumer it wins p−adv⁡t(xi,xj;x)p-\operatorname{adv}_t(x_i,x_j;x)p−advt​(xi​,xj​;x).
  • Neither firm implements PP. Each firm's share is the set of consumers with a strictly lower full price at that firm, plus half of any ties. A price equilibrium is a pair of uniform prices from which neither firm gains by deviating to any real price.

Formalization targets

Goal: Proposition 1

For every t>0t>0t>0:

(xA,xB)=(14,34) is the unique position equilibrium with xA≤xB,both firms implement PP,πA=πB=t8.(x_A,x_B)=\Big(\tfrac14,\tfrac34\Big)\ \text{is the unique position equilibrium with } x_A\le x_B,\quad \text{both firms implement PP},\quad \pi_A=\pi_B=\frac t8 .(xA​,xB​)=(41​,43​) is the unique position equilibrium with xA​≤xB​,both firms implement PP,πA​=πB​=8t​.

Here a position equilibrium means that no firm can raise its both-PP profit πtPP\pi^{PP}_tπtPP​ by moving to any point of R\mathbb RR. "Both firms implement PP" means PP is strictly dominant for each firm at these positions in the stage-2 game.

Milestones

  1. Both-PP profits (Appendix A, p. 33). For xA≤xBx_A\le x_BxA​≤xB​ with 0≤xA+xB≤20\le x_A+x_B\le 20≤xA​+xB​≤2: πtPP(xA,xB)=t(xB−xA)(xA+xB)2/4\pi^{PP}_t(x_A,x_B)=t(x_B-x_A)(x_A+x_B)^2/4πtPP​(xA​,xB​)=t(xB​−xA​)(xA​+xB​)2/4 and πtPP(xB,xA)=t(xB−xA)(2−xA−xB)2/4\pi^{PP}_t(x_B,x_A)=t(x_B-x_A)(2-x_A-x_B)^2/4πtPP​(xB​,xA​)=t(xB​−xA​)(2−xA​−xB​)2/4.
  2. One-sided PP (Appendix A, pp. 33–34). The uniform leader's unique optimal price is t(xA+xB)(xB−xA)/2t(x_A+x_B)(x_B-x_A)/2t(xA​+xB​)(xB​−xA​)/2 when BBB targets, and its mirror when AAA targets. The profits are those of Table 3: /8/8/8 and /16/16/16.
  3. Uniform prices (§4, Stage 3, pp. 8–9). pA=t(xB−xA)(2+xA+xB)/3p_A=t(x_B-x_A)(2+x_A+x_B)/3pA​=t(xB​−xA​)(2+xA​+xB​)/3 and pB=t(xB−xA)(4−xA−xB)/3p_B=t(x_B-x_A)(4-x_A-x_B)/3pB​=t(xB​−xA​)(4−xA​−xB​)/3 form a price equilibrium, with profits /18/18/18.
  4. Lemma 1, dominance (p. 10). For xA<xBx_A<x_BxA​<xB​ and 0<xA+xB<20<x_A+x_B<20<xA​+xB​<2, PP is strictly dominant for both firms.
  5. Lemma 1, prisoner's dilemma (p. 10). For 2(5−32)/7<xA+xB<2(2+32)/72(5-3\sqrt2)/7<x_A+x_B<2(2+3\sqrt2)/72(5−32​)/7<xA​+xB​<2(2+32​)/7, both firms earn less when both implement PP than when neither does.

Significance

The result. In the uniform-pricing benchmark of the same paper the firms locate at −1/4-1/4−1/4 and 5/45/45/4, outside the market, and earn 3t/43t/43t/4 each: excess differentiation softens price competition. Proposition 1 shows that costless PP reverses this. The firms move to the quartiles, differentiation falls from 3/23/23/2 to 1/21/21/2, and each firm's profit falls to t/8t/8t/8, a loss of 83.3%. The fixed-position prisoner's dilemma is therefore not the whole cost of PP: endogenous positioning adds a second, larger loss. The positions 1/4,3/41/4,3/41/4,3/4 also minimize total misfit cost, so the result separates firm profits from social efficiency. The costly-PP analysis of the paper (its Propositions 2–4) and the short-run positioning variant (Proposition 5) take these subgame outcomes as their starting point.

Formalizing it. The paper's proofs are short computations, and several are only asserted ("solving firm A's profit maximization problem we obtain", "straightforward to analyze and is omitted"). The formalization makes explicit what the page leaves implicit: the ranges of positions on which each closed form holds, the uniqueness of the leader's optimum that makes the follower's profit well defined, and deviations across the rival in the position game. To our knowledge none of these results has been machine-checked.

Difficulty

Each stage-3 outcome is an optimization over a market share that is a clipped linear function of the price. The first-order conditions on the page describe only the interior branch. A complete argument has to rule out the corners: a price at which the firm serves everyone or no one, negative prices, and coincident firms where ties matter.

The position game is harder than calculus on the closed forms. Those formulas hold only for 0≤xA+xB≤20\le x_A+x_B\le 20≤xA​+xB​≤2, while a deviation can take a firm anywhere on R\mathbb RR, including past its rival, where the firms' roles are swapped and different formulas apply. Uniqueness requires showing that every ordered pair outside the interior region leaves some firm with zero profit and a profitable move.

Both-PP profits are integrals of a positive part, so every evaluation involves a case split at the midpoint x0=(xA+xB)/2x_0=(x_A+x_B)/2x0​=(xA​+xB​)/2.

Formalization scope

All objects live in the namespace PPDifferentiation.Costless and are defined from primitives in one Setting file. Profits are integrals ∫ x in (0:ℝ)..1, … or real prices times the Lebesgue measure of a consumer set intersected with [0,1][0,1][0,1]. No stage-3 profit is defined by its closed form. Optimality is a predicate (IsLeaderOpt, IsPriceNE), never an sSup, and every statement quantifying over optima also asserts that one exists.

Committed conventions:

  • the reservation value vvv is omitted (full coverage; it cancels from every profit);
  • prices are unsigned reals;
  • positions and deviations range over all of R\mathbb RR;
  • under one-sided PP the indifferent consumer buys from the targeting firm, and under uniform prices ties are split half-half.

The page states Lemma 1 "for any firm locations xA≤xBx_A\le x_BxA​≤xB​". The formalization poses each closed form on the range where it holds: 0≤xA+xB≤20\le x_A+x_B\le 20≤xA​+xB​≤2 for the both-PP profits, 0<xA+xB<40<x_A+x_B<40<xA​+xB​<4 (and −2<xA+xB<2-2<x_A+x_B<2−2<xA​+xB​<2 for the mirror) for one-sided PP, −2<xA+xB<4-2<x_A+x_B<4−2<xA​+xB​<4 for uniform prices, and xA<xBx_A<x_BxA​<xB​, 0<xA+xB<20<x_A+x_B<20<xA​+xB​<2 for dominance. As in the paper's proof, the position game of Proposition 1 uses the both-PP profits as stage-1 payoffs at every position pair.

A formalization in which πPP\pi^{PP}πPP is defined as t(xB−xA)(xA+xB)2/4t(x_B-x_A)(x_A+x_B)^2/4t(xB​−xA​)(xA​+xB​)2/4, or in which deviations are restricted to one side of the rival, would make the goal a statement about a polynomial and is ruled out.

Contributions welcome: interval-integral evaluations of the positive part of a linear function, the optimization of p⋅clip⁡(a−bp)p\cdot\operatorname{clip}(a-bp)p⋅clip(a−bp) over R\mathbb RR, and the stage-1 deviation analysis. The first two are reusable in other Hotelling models.

The source is the authors' SSRN manuscript of August 3, 2021 (abstract 3881900). The published Management Science version may number or state results differently.

Selected references

  • X. Li, X. (Shane) Wang, B. R. Nault, Is Personalized Pricing Profitable When Firms Can Differentiate?, working paper, SSRN abstract 3881900, version of August 3, 2021. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3881900 (published in Management Science, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.02740)
  • J.-F. Thisse, X. Vives, On the Strategic Choice of Spatial Price Policy, American Economic Review 78(1), 1988, 122–137. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1814702
  • G. Shaffer, Z. J. Zhang, Competitive Coupon Targeting, Marketing Science 14(4), 1995, 395–416. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.14.4.395
  • H. Bester, E. Petrakis, Coupons and Oligopolistic Price Discrimination, International Journal of Industrial Organization 14(2), 1996, 227–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-7187(94)00474-9
  • V. Choudhary, A. Ghose, T. Mukhopadhyay, U. Rajan, Personalized Pricing and Quality Differentiation, Management Science 51(7), 2005, 1120–1130. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0383
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EconomicsOperations Research·Captain: mikedeng1

Aggregating Distributed Energy Resources: Efficiency and Market Power II: Prosumer Participation Raises Welfare and Shrinks the Welfare Loss from Generators' Strategic BiddingResearch Paper

Motivation

Households and small firms increasingly own distributed energy resources (DERs): rooftop solar, batteries, small generators. A household that owns a DER is a prosumer: it consumes electricity and can also sell its surplus. Whether prosumers should be allowed to sell into the wholesale market, directly or through an aggregator that pools many small units, is now a regulatory question: in the United States, FERC Order 2222 (2020) requires grid operators to open their markets to DER aggregators.

Gao, Alshehri and Birge (SSRN 3931052) study two questions about such aggregation. The first, the subject of a companion mission, is efficiency: does a profit-seeking aggregator distort the market outcome? The second, the subject of this mission, is market power. Conventional generators are few and large, and they can raise the market price by withholding supply. The paper asks whether letting prosumers sell back to the grid weakens that power, and shows in a stylized one-node model that it does: participation raises welfare, and the welfare lost to strategic generators is smaller with participation than without it.

The source is the authors' SSRN working paper (PDF of September 26, 2021). A revised version appeared in Manufacturing & Service Operations Management (2024, doi:10.1287/msom.2021.0539) and may number or state the results differently; every index here refers to the working paper.

Setting

The market has one node and no network constraints. There are finitely many prosumers iii and N≥1N\ge1N≥1 identical generators jjj.

  • Prosumer iii owns a capacity Ci≥0C_i\ge0Ci​≥0 and has the quadratic utility of consumption ui(z)=aiz2+bizu_i(z)=a_iz^2+b_izui​(z)=ai​z2+bi​z with ai<0a_i<0ai​<0. Write C=∑iCiC=\sum_iC_iC=∑i​Ci​.
  • Every generator has the true linear cost cj(yj)=αyjc_j(y_j)=\alpha y_jcj​(yj​)=αyj​ with α>0\alpha>0α>0.
  • With participation, prosumer iii chooses a net purchase zi>−Ciz_i>-C_izi​>−Ci​ (negative ziz_izi​ is a sale). Without participation, it can only buy, di≥0d_i\ge0di​≥0.

At a market price λ\lambdaλ, a prosumer is a price taker: it maximizes ui(Ci+z)−λzu_i(C_i+z)-\lambda zui​(Ci​+z)−λz over its feasible purchases. A price λ\lambdaλ clears the market at total generator supply yyy if the prosumers' optimal responses sum to yyy.

Four welfare numbers are compared.

  • WT\mathcal W^TWT is the optimal welfare of the dispatch problem (49): maximize ∑iui(Ci+zi)−∑jαyj\sum_iu_i(C_i+z_i)-\sum_j\alpha y_j∑i​ui​(Ci​+zi​)−∑j​αyj​ over zi>−Ciz_i>-C_izi​>−Ci​, yj≥0y_j\ge0yj​≥0 with ∑jyj=∑izi\sum_jy_j=\sum_iz_i∑j​yj​=∑i​zi​. This is the outcome when generators bid truthfully.
  • WTN\mathcal W^{TN}WTN is the same with di≥0d_i\ge0di​≥0 in place of ziz_izi​, problem (69).
  • WS\mathcal W^SWS and WSN\mathcal W^{SN}WSN are the true welfares at a strategic outcome: a symmetric pure equilibrium of the generators' quantity game. Each generator supplies q≥0q\ge0q≥0; the price is the one that clears the market at total NqNqNq; and no single generator gains by changing its supply to any q′≥0q'\ge0q′≥0 while the other N−1N-1N−1 keep qqq, with the price then clearing the market at q′+(N−1)qq'+(N-1)qq′+(N−1)q.

Assumption 5 collects the hypotheses: ai<0a_i<0ai​<0, α>0\alpha>0α>0, at least one prosumer with 2aiCi+bi>α2a_iC_i+b_i>\alpha2ai​Ci​+bi​>α, and two clauses the paper states informally, made precise as H1 (the participation clearing price at zero supply, (C+∑lbl/(2al))/∑l1/(2al)(C+\sum_lb_l/(2a_l))/\sum_l1/(2a_l)(C+∑l​bl​/(2al​))/∑l​1/(2al​), lies below every bib_ibi​) and H2 (−C+∑i(α−bi)/(2ai)>0-C+\sum_i(\alpha-b_i)/(2a_i)>0−C+∑i​(α−bi​)/(2ai​)>0, the efficient supply is positive).

Formalization targets

Goal: Theorem 3 (p. 27)

WT≥WTN,WS≥WSN,WT≥WS,WTN≥WSN,\mathcal W^T\ge\mathcal W^{TN},\qquad \mathcal W^S\ge\mathcal W^{SN},\qquad \mathcal W^T\ge\mathcal W^S,\qquad \mathcal W^{TN}\ge\mathcal W^{SN},WT≥WTN,WS≥WSN,WT≥WS,WTN≥WSN, WTN−WSN≥WT−WS,\mathcal W^{TN}-\mathcal W^{SN}\ge\mathcal W^T-\mathcal W^S,WTN−WSN≥WT−WS,

where every inequality involving a strategic welfare holds for every strategic outcome of the model concerned.

Milestones

  1. Proposition 5: the truthful optimum with participation, the price λT=α\lambda^T=\alphaλT=α, and WT=αC−∑i(bi−α)2/(4ai)\mathcal W^T=\alpha C-\sum_i(b_i-\alpha)^2/(4a_i)WT=αC−∑i​(bi​−α)2/(4ai​).
  2. (58): the clearing price with participation, λS(y)=(y+C+∑ibi/(2ai))/∑i1/(2ai)\lambda^S(y)=(y+C+\sum_ib_i/(2a_i))/\sum_i1/(2a_i)λS(y)=(y+C+∑i​bi​/(2ai​))/∑i​1/(2ai​) for y≥0y\ge0y≥0.
  3. (60) and (64): the strategic outcome with participation is unique, with yjS=(−C+∑i(α−bi)/(2ai))/(N+1)y^S_j=(-C+\sum_i(\alpha-b_i)/(2a_i))/(N+1)yjS​=(−C+∑i​(α−bi​)/(2ai​))/(N+1).
  4. Proposition 7: the truthful optimum without participation and WTN\mathcal W^{TN}WTN.
  5. (81): at every strategic outcome without participation, the per-generator supply is the active-set formula, and it is positive.
  6. Proposition 9: the four welfares relative to W0=∑iui(Ci)\mathcal W_0=\sum_iu_i(C_i)W0​=∑i​ui​(Ci​).
  7. (93), (95): the price rises δ=λS−α\delta=\lambda^S-\alphaδ=λS−α and δN=λSN−α\delta^N=\lambda^{SN}-\alphaδN=λSN−α.
  8. Proposition 10: the explicit gaps WT−WTN\mathcal W^T-\mathcal W^{TN}WT−WTN, WT−WS\mathcal W^T-\mathcal W^SWT−WS, WTN−WSN\mathcal W^{TN}-\mathcal W^{SN}WTN−WSN.

Significance

The result. Theorem 3 gives a policy argument in welfare terms. Opening the market to prosumer sales, directly or through an aggregator, never lowers welfare in this model, whether the generators behave competitively or strategically. More specifically, the deadweight loss caused by the generators' market power, WT−WS\mathcal W^T-\mathcal W^SWT−WS, is smaller than its counterpart without participation. Prosumer sales make the residual demand that generators face more elastic, and the theorem quantifies the effect through the explicit gaps of Proposition 10. Together with the companion efficiency result (the profit-seeking aggregator is fully efficient), it supports allowing DER aggregation in wholesale markets.

Formalizing it. The result is proved in the paper, by explicit computation. To our knowledge none of it has been machine-checked. A formal development adds two things beyond confirming the algebra. First, it fixes the solution concept: welfares are optimal values, prices are market-clearing prices, and strategic outcomes are equilibria with unilateral deviations, not closed forms read off first-order conditions. Second, it makes explicit the facts the paper uses without stating them: the open constraint zi>−Ciz_i>-C_izi​>−Ci​ never binds, the no-participation outcome lies on one linear piece of a kinked inverse demand, and its active set is nonempty.

Difficulty

With participation, everything is affine: the inverse demand is linear and the Cournot outcome is the textbook one. The difficulty is the model without participation. There the inverse demand, obtained from prosumers who can only buy, is piecewise linear and convex, with a kink each time one more prosumer starts buying. The equilibrium is characterized by the fixed point (81) on an active set that depends on the equilibrium itself. Two obvious shortcuts fail. One cannot take the paper's sorted closed form (86) as the definition of WSN\mathcal W^{SN}WSN, because it is only valid at an equilibrium. One cannot assume an equilibrium exists either: numerical computation finds parameters satisfying Assumption 5 for which the no-participation game has no symmetric pure equilibrium, and others for which it has several. So (46b), (46d) and (46e) have to hold for every strategic outcome, whichever active set it uses. Comparing the two models then needs the active-set identities (95) and (96d) at each such outcome.

Formalization scope

All quantities are real. Prosumers are a Fintype index ι; generators are Fin N, and Assumption5 includes 1 ≤ N. u a b i z = a i * z ^ 2 + b i * z. The definitions are:

  • WT and WTN: the sSup of the welfare over the feasible sets of (49) and (69). Propositions 5 and 7 show that both suprema are attained.
  • IsRespP and IsRespN: price-taking optimal responses, over the open set z>−Ciz>-C_iz>−Ci​ and over d≥0d\ge0d≥0.
  • ClearsP and ClearsN: market clearing.
  • IsStratP and IsStratN: symmetric equilibria with unilateral deviations to any q′≥0q'\ge0q′≥0, against every clearing price at the deviation total.
  • welS and welSN: the true welfare ∑iui(Ci+zi)−Nαq\sum_iu_i(C_i+z_i)-N\alpha q∑i​ui​(Ci​+zi​)−Nαq.

Hypotheses added to or read into the paper:

  • H1 and H2 (Assumption 5's informal clauses), and Ci≥0C_i\ge0Ci​≥0. The paper's §5.4 example (ai=−0.1a_i=-0.1ai​=−0.1, bi=10b_i=10bi​=10, C=(10,30)C=(10,30)C=(10,30), α=5\alpha=5α=5) satisfies them, which a verification file checks.
  • The paper's strategic generators bid tilted cost functions that implement the quantity equilibrium (Lemmas 5 and 8). That bid layer is not modelled: the strategic outcome is the quantity equilibrium itself, at which the paper evaluates WS\mathcal W^SWS and WSN\mathcal W^{SN}WSN.
  • Existence of a strategic outcome without participation is not claimed, because the paper does not prove it and it can fail.

No welfare, price or equilibrium is defined by its closed form. Defining WT\mathcal W^TWT by (51), the price by (58) or the equilibrium by (60) would make the milestones definitional and the goal an algebraic identity about unverified objects. For the same reason the strategic outcome quantifies over unilateral deviations, not over symmetric profiles.

A complete development needs only elementary real analysis: maximization of concave quadratics, finite sums, and a case analysis on the active set. The definitions of price-taking response, market clearing and symmetric quantity equilibrium against a clearing correspondence can be reused for other single-node market models. Proofs of any milestone are welcome, as are alternative arguments for (46b) and (46e) that avoid the closed forms.

Selected references

  • Z. Gao, K. Alshehri, J. R. Birge, Aggregating Distributed Energy Resources: Efficiency and Market Power, working paper, SSRN abstract 3931052 (PDF of September 26, 2021). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3931052
  • Z. Gao, K. Alshehri, J. R. Birge, Aggregating Distributed Energy Resources: Efficiency and Market Power, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0539
  • Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Participation of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregations in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, Order No. 2222, 2020 (cited as FERC 2020 in the working paper, p. 2). https://ssrn.com/abstract=3931052
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EconomicsOperations ResearchOptimization·Captain: mikedeng1

Precommitments in Two-Sided Market Competition 2: Commission Precommitment Beats No Commitment When γ ≥ β or γ ≪ β, and Loses to It When γ Is Just Below βResearch Paper

Motivation

Many service platforms set a price paid by customers and a wage paid to the providers who serve them. A platform may instead announce how much of each transaction's price it will pass to providers, then choose prices after both platforms have announced their shares. These are different games: a price change in the second game changes both customer demand and provider pay. Hu and Liu's study of precommitments in two-sided competition asks which timing gives platforms a more favorable equilibrium. This mission isolates their comparison between a commission precommitment and no commitment, Proposition 3(b) of the submitted manuscript. The authors' Online Appendix, included in that manuscript, contains the proofs.

The comparison is useful where a platform must choose a contract with providers before it can adjust customer prices. It is not enough to know that either side of the market is competitive: the answer changes as demand-side and supply-side competition intensities move relative to each other. The mission makes the claimed parameter regions precise and ties them to equilibria of the two games.

Setting

There are two platforms, indexed by i=1,2i=1,2i=1,2, with rival j≠ij\ne ij=i. Platform iii posts a consumer price pip_ipi​ and a provider wage wiw_iwi​. Fix a potential market size Ω>0\Omega>0Ω>0. The demand substitution factor γ∈[0,1)\gamma\in[0,1)γ∈[0,1) measures how a rival's price raises demand for platform iii. The supply substitution factor β∈[0,1)\beta\in[0,1)β∈[0,1) measures how a rival's wage draws providers away. The paper uses the positive part [x]+=max⁡{x,0}[x]^+=\max\{x,0\}[x]+=max{x,0}:

di(p)=[Ω−pi+γpj]+,si(w)=[wi−βwj]+.d_i(p)=[\Omega-p_i+\gamma p_j]^+,\qquad s_i(w)=[w_i-\beta w_j]^+.di​(p)=[Ω−pi​+γpj​]+,si​(w)=[wi​−βwj​]+.

The number of completed matches is zi=min⁡{di(p),si(w)}z_i=\min\{d_i(p),s_i(w)\}zi​=min{di​(p),si​(w)}. Profit is πi=(pi−wi)zi\pi_i=(p_i-w_i)z_iπi​=(pi​−wi​)zi​. Unmatched consumers or providers generate no revenue. Keeping the positive parts matters when a platform chooses a price or wage that leaves one side of the market empty.

In mode P, both platforms choose their prices and wages simultaneously, and each can change its own price and wage together while its rival's choices stay fixed. In mode C, each platform first commits to a pay-out ratio αi∈(0,1)\alpha_i\in(0,1)αi​∈(0,1). The provider then receives wi=αipiw_i=\alpha_i p_iwi​=αi​pi​ per match and the platform keeps 1−αi1-\alpha_i1−αi​ of its price. After observing both ratios, the platforms choose prices. Their profit in this second stage is

πi(α,p)=(1−αi)pimin⁡{di(p),si(αp)}.\pi_i(\alpha,p)=(1-\alpha_i)p_i\min\{d_i(p),s_i(\alpha p)\}.πi​(α,p)=(1−αi​)pi​min{di​(p),si​(αp)}.

A subgame-perfect equilibrium in mode C specifies a price equilibrium after every admissible pair of ratios and an initial pair of ratios that resists unilateral deviation when prices are chosen again. The mission compares symmetric commission equilibria to the positive-profit equilibrium of mode P. In the paper's platform preference ranking, X⪰YX\succeq YX⪰Y means that mode XXX gives each platform a weakly higher price and profit, and a weakly lower wage and matching quantity, than mode YYY.

Formalization targets

No commitment and commission outcomes

Lemma 1 gives the simultaneous price-and-wage outcome. Writing D=4−3β−3γ+2βγD=4-3\beta-3\gamma+2\beta\gammaD=4−3β−3γ+2βγ, its price, wage, matching quantity, and profit are

pP∗=3−2βDΩ,wP∗=ΩD,zP∗=1−βDΩ,πP∗=2(1−β)2D2Ω2.p_P^*=\frac{3-2\beta}{D}\Omega,\quad w_P^*=\frac{\Omega}{D},\quad z_P^*=\frac{1-\beta}{D}\Omega,\quad \pi_P^*=\frac{2(1-\beta)^2}{D^2}\Omega^2.pP∗​=D3−2β​Ω,wP∗​=DΩ​,zP∗​=D1−β​Ω,πP∗​=D22(1−β)2​Ω2.

Lemma F.2 says that second-stage commission prices equate demand and supply. Lemma 4 characterizes the symmetric commission equilibrium by the radical α∗\alpha^*α∗ in equation (7), its price pC∗=Ω/[1−γ+(1−β)α∗]p_C^*=\Omega/[1-\gamma+(1-\beta)\alpha^*]pC∗​=Ω/[1−γ+(1−β)α∗], and its profit in equation (9). These are the three milestones. The radical is transcribed exactly in the Lean definition associated with equation (7).

Proposition 3(b)

The goal compares the two equilibrium outcomes using all four components of the platform preference ranking:

γ≥β ⟹ C⪰P;γ≪β ⟹ C⪰P;γ≤β and sufficiently close to β ⟹ P⪰C.\gamma\geq\beta\ \Longrightarrow\ C\succeq P;\qquad \gamma\ll\beta\ \Longrightarrow\ C\succeq P;\qquad \gamma\leq\beta\text{ and sufficiently close to }\beta\ \Longrightarrow\ P\succeq C.γ≥β ⟹ C⪰P;γ≪β ⟹ C⪰P;γ≤β and sufficiently close to β ⟹ P⪰C.

The two informal proximity phrases are expressed by the existence of positive thresholds, with the threshold allowed to depend on β\betaβ. At γ=β\gamma=\betaγ=β, both rankings can hold because the outcomes coincide. The goal also asserts that the equilibria being compared exist for every admissible parameter pair.

Significance

The result identifies when committing to a provider share yields a platform outcome that is preferable to choosing price and wage together. Its four-way comparison is stronger than a profit-only ranking: the associated prices, wages, and match counts all move in specified directions. It makes clear that the relative competition intensities on the two sides determine whether the timing of the provider contract helps or hurts platforms. Without the comparison, the closed-form equilibrium results for modes P and C would not say which contract timing platforms prefer.

The result is proved in the cited manuscript, with derivations in Online Appendix §F; it is not an open mathematical conjecture. The remaining work in this mission is a machine-checked Lean proof of the equilibrium statements and the parameter-region comparison. The development will also provide a reusable formal model of simultaneous and two-stage decisions in a two-sided market. No existing machine-checked proof of this particular comparison is identified in the local Prove2Me index.

Difficulty

A change in a commission ratio changes the wage at any given price, while the subsequent price decision changes both demand and the wage again. That coupling makes the comparison more delicate than ordering two prices by inspection. The commission equilibrium ratio contains a square root, and the ranking must establish the directions of four outcome quantities in several parameter regions. The apparent shortcut of comparing profits alone would leave three of Definition 1's required inequalities unresolved. The positive-part demand and supply functions also admit zero-match equilibria that complicate an unqualified uniqueness statement.

Formalization scope

The Lean development uses real-valued prices and wages, two platforms indexed by Fin 2, and all unilateral deviations in the stated strategy sets. Market size is positive, both substitution factors lie in [0,1)[0,1)[0,1), and pay-out ratios lie in (0,1)(0,1)(0,1). The paper does not spell out the strategy sets; these choices preserve the derivations in §3 and Appendix §F. The no-commitment uniqueness statement is restricted to equilibria where both platforms profit, because the literal unrestricted claim has zero-profit counterexamples. A second-stage strategy in mode C selects an equilibrium with positive profits for both platforms whenever one exists. This condition prevents off-path zero-profit punishments from making the printed symmetric SPE claim false.

The goal quantifies over equilibria derived from the demand, supply, match, and profit functions. It does not define an outcome to equal the paper's closed form, and it asserts equilibrium existence so that its universal comparisons have content. The radical for α∗\alpha^*α∗ is a named expression; Lemma 4, rather than its definition, establishes its equilibrium role. A full proof needs reasoning about unilateral deviations, positive-part functions, equilibrium existence and uniqueness, the radical expression, and real inequalities. The general Nash condition and the paper's market primitives are intended for reuse in other two-player platform games. Contributions addressing these foundations and any of the three cited milestones are within scope. Wage- and price-precommitment modes are outside this mission.

Selected references

  • Ming Hu and Yan Liu, Precommitments in Two-Sided Market Competition, submitted manuscript with Online Appendix associated with the 2023 publication, SSRN 3734828. Manuscript.
  • Ming Hu and Yan Liu, Precommitments in Two-Sided Market Competition, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25(2), 704–718, 2023. DOI.
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